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Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1975, 1990, and moderate
Table 2. Civilian labor force participation rates by sex,
Table 3. Civilian labor force, 1990 and projected 2005, entrants,
Table 4. Employment by major industry division, 1975, 1990, and projected to 2005
Table 5. Employment by major occupational group, 1990 and projected
Technical Information: (202) 606-5700 USDL: 93-513
Media Contact: (202) 606-5902 For release: 10 A.M. EST
Wednesday, November 24, 1993
BLS RELEASES NEW 1992-2005 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
New projections for the American work force from 1992 to 2005 were
released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor, providing information on where future job growth is expected and
what the demographic makeup of the work force pursuing those jobs will
be.
These projections to 2005 of overall economic growth, the labor
force, and employment by occupation and industry are widely used for
studying long-range economic and employment trends, planning education
and training programs, and developing career information.
BLS develops three alternative sets of projections because of the
uncertainty inherent in the future. Low, moderate, and high growth
alternative patterns for overall Gross Domestic Product and for changes
in the structure of the economy's demand for goods and services are
included. This release uses the moderate growth projections in which
personal consumption expenditures continue to account for about two-
thirds of GDP, the improvement in foreign trade seen during the latter
half of the 1980s moderates somewhat, and national defense spending
declines.
Highlights of the moderate growth scenario include:
Labor force
The future supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to
increase by 24 million over the 1992-2005 period, from 127 million to
151 million. This will represent an increase of 18-1/2 percent,
slightly less than the 21 percent increase over the previous 13-year
period, 1979 to 1992 (table 1).
o 51.2 million workers are expected to enter the labor force
over the 1992-2005 period (table 2).
o 27.7 million will replace workers who leave the labor
force because of death, retirement, and other reasons.
o 23.5 million will reflect net labor force growth.
Changing patterns of immigration, birth rates, and work force
participation will cause the demographic composition of the labor force
to change.
o White non-Hispanics are projected to account for two out
of three entrants, but their share of the work force will
fall because other labor force groups will grow faster.
o By 2005, the number of Hispanics in the labor force will
nearly equal black, non-Hispanics.
o Labor force growth of women will be faster than that of
men as their labor force participation rates continue to
increase, although at a slower pace.
o Baby boomers (those born from 1946 to 1964) will continue
to have a significant impact on the age distribution of
the labor force. Thus, the 45-54 age group, which will be
made up entirely of baby boomers in 2005, will increase
three times faster than the labor force as a whole.
o The decline in the birth rate in the late-1960s and 1970s
will contribute to an absolute decline in the number of
25-34 year olds in the labor force over the 1992-2005
period.
Employment
In identifying the demand for workers, BLS projects industry
employment and occupational employment. Over the 1992-2005 period,
total employment is projected to increase 22 percent or by 26 million,
from 121 million to 147 million (table 3). In comparison, growth was 19
percent and 20 million in the previous 13-year period.
Industry employment
o Service-producing industries will continue to account for
virtually all job growth. Within the goods-producing
sector, only construction will add jobs due to employment
growth.
o Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to
continue to ebb despite projected growth in output.
Manufacturing will still remain a dominant force in the
economy, accounting for one of every seven jobs in the
year 2005.
o Health, business, and social services will account for one
out of every three jobs added to the economy from 1992 to
2005. These groups also include eight of the 10 fastest
growing industries (table 5a).
Occupational employment
o Professional specialty, managerial, and technician
occupationsjthe major occupational groups requiring the
most educationjare among the four fastest growing groups.
Service workers is the only major occupational group
projected to grow faster than average that ranks low in
terms of educational attainment.
o The projections indicate jobs will be available across the
entire educational spectrum. Job growth, however, will be
dominated by professional and service workers groups
(table 4).
o The 10 fastest growing occupations include workers at all
levels of educational attainment; however, seven of the
fastest growing are health or computer related (table 5b).
o The 10 occupations adding the most jobs account for nearly
one-fourth of total employment growth. Systems analysts
is the only occupation on this list that also is on the
list of fastest growing occupations (table 5c).
More detailed information on the 1992-2005 projections appears in
five articles in the November 1993 issue of the Monthly Labor Review,
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear
in the forthcoming Fall 1993 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.
The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold
by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The
Review costs $25 a year; single copies are $7. The Quarterly costs $8 a
year; single copies are $2.75. Make checks payable to the
Superintendent of Documents.
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-7828, Telecommunications
Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral
Phone Number: 1-800-326-2577.
Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1975, 1990, and moderate
growth projection to 2005
[Numbers in millions]
Group Level Change Percent distribution Annual growth rate
1975 1990 2005 1975-90 1990-2005 1975 1990 2005 1975-90 1990-2005
Total, 16 years and over 93.8 124.8 150.7 31.0 25.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.9 1.3
Men, 16 years and over 56.3 68.2 79.3 11.9 11.1 60.0 54.7 52.6 1.3 1.0
Women, 16 years and over 37.5 56.6 71.4 19.1 14.8 40.0 45.3 47.4 2.8 1.6
16 to 24 22.6 21.3 24.0 -1.4 2.8 24.1 17.0 16.0 -.4 .8
25 to 54 56.9 88.1 104.6 31.3 16.4 60.6 70.6 69.4 3.0 1.1
55 and over 14.3 15.4 22.1 1.1 6.7 15.3 12.3 14.7 .5 2.4
White, 16 years and over 82.8 107.2 125.8 24.3 18.6 88.3 85.9 83.4 1.7 1.1
Black, 16 years and over 9.3 13.5 17.8 4.2 4.3 9.9 10.8 11.8 2.5 1.9
Asian and other,
16 years and over (1) 1.7 4.1 7.2 2.4 3.1 1.8 3.3 4.8 6.2 3.8
Hispanic, 16 and over (2) 9.6 16.8 7.2 7.7 11.1 (3)5.9 3.8
1) The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaskan Natives.
The historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Black and other" group; projections are made directly.
2) Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Data for Hispanics are not available before 1980.
3) This growth rate is from 1976 to 1990.
Table 2. Civilian labor force participation rates by sex,
age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1975, 1990,
and moderate growth projection to 2005
[Percent]
Group Level Growth rate
1975 1990 2005 1975-90 1990-2005
Total, 16 years and over 61.2 66.4 69.0 .5 .3
16 to 24 64.6 67.3 69.5 .3 .2
25 to 54 74.1 83.5 87.3 .8 .3
55 and over 34.6 30.2 34.6 -.9 .9
Men, 16 years and over 77.9 76.1 75.4 -.2 -.1
16 to 24 72.4 71.5 73.1 -.1 .1
25 to 54 94.4 93.5 92.4 -.1 -.1
55 and over 49.3 39.3 41.8 -1.5 .4
Women, 16 years and over 46.3 57.5 63.0 1.5 .6
16 to 24 57.2 63.1 66.0 .7 .3
25 to 54 55.1 74.1 82.3 2.0 .7
55 and over 23.1 23.0 28.7 .0 1.5
White, 16 years and over 61.5 66.8 69.7 .6 .3
Black, 16 years and over 58.8 63.3 65.6 .5 .2
Asian and other,
16 years and over (1) 62.4 64.9 66.4 .3 .2
Hispanic, 16 years and over (2) 67.0 69.9 .7 .3
1) The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific
Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaskan Natives. The
historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Black and
other" group; projections are made directly.
2) Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Data for
Hispanics are not available before 1980.
Table 3. Civilian labor force, 1990 and projected 2005, entrants,
leavers, and net change 1990 to 2005
[Numbers in millions]
Labor Entrants Leavers Labor
Group force force
1990 1990-2005 1990-2005 2005
Total 124.8 55.8 29.9 150.7
Men 68.2 28.2 17.1 79.3
Women 56.6 27.6 12.8 71.4
White, non-Hispanic 98.0 36.4 24.4 110.0
Men 53.8 18.0 14.2 57.5
Women 44.2 18.5 10.2 52.5
Black 13.3 7.3 3.1 17.4
Men 6.6 3.5 1.6 8.5
Women 6.7 3.8 1.6 8.9
Hispanic 9.6 8.8 1.6 16.8
Men 5.8 5.1 .9 9.9
Women 3.8 3.7 .6 6.9
Asian and other 3.9 3.4 .7 6.5
Men 2.1 1.7 .4 3.4
Women 1.8 1.7 .3 3.1
Share [in percent]
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Men 54.7 50.5 57.3 52.6
Women 45.3 49.5 42.7 47.4
White, non-Hispanic 78.5 65.3 81.8 73.0
Men 43.1 32.2 47.6 38.2
Women 35.4 33.1 34.2 34.8
Black 10.7 13.0 10.5 11.6
Men 5.3 6.2 5.2 5.7
Women 5.4 6.8 5.3 5.9
Hispanic 7.7 15.7 5.2 11.1
Men 4.6 9.1 3.1 6.6
Women 3.1 6.6 2.1 4.6
Asian and other 3.1 6.0 2.4 4.3
Men 1.7 3.0 1.3 2.2
Women 1.4 3.0 1.1 2.1
NOTE: Unlike the other labor force tables, the columns in this
table are additive. For a discussion of how the number of entrants
and leavers were calculated, see the November 1991 Monthly Labor
Review.
Table 4. Employment by major industry division, 1975, 1990, and projected to 2005
[Numbers in millions]
Industry 2005 Change Change, 1975-2005
1975 1990 Low Moderate High 1975-90 Low Moderate High
Nonfarm wage and salary (1) 76.7 109.3 122.8 132.6 139.5 32.6 13.5 23.3 30.2
Goods-producing 22.6 25.0 22.9 25.2 26.4 2.4 -2.1 .3 1.4
Mining .8 .7 .6 .7 .7 .0 -.1 .0 .0
Construction 3.5 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.5 1.6 .4 .9 1.3
Manufacturing 18.3 19.1 16.7 18.5 19.2 0.8 -2.4 -.6 .1
Durable manufacturing 10.7 11.1 9.5 10.5 10.9 0.5 -1.6 -.6 -.2
Nondurable manufacturing 7.7 8.0 7.3 8.0 8.3 0.3 -0.7 .0 .3
Service-producing 54.1 84.4 99.9 107.4 113.2 30.3 15.5 23.0 28.8
Transportation,
communications, utilities 4.5 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.0 1.3 .4 .9 1.2
Wholesale trade 4.4 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.6 1.8 .5 1.0 1.4
Retail trade 12.6 19.7 23.3 24.8 25.9 7.1 3.6 5.1 6.2
Finance, insurance, and
real estate 4.2 6.7 7.6 8.1 8.5 2.6 .9 1.4 1.8
Services (1) 13.6 27.6 36.2 39.1 41.1 14.0 8.6 11.5 13.5
Government 14.7 18.3 19.9 21.5 23.1 3.6 1.6 3.2 4.8
Agriculture (2) 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 -.2 -.3 -.2 -.1
Private households 1.4 1.0 .6 .7 .7 -.3 -.4 -.3 -.3
Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid
family workers (3) 6.2 9.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 2.8 1.5 1.8 2.1
Total (4) 87.7 122.6 136.8 147.2 154.5 34.9 14.2 24.6 32.0
Percent distribution of wage Annual rate of change
and salary employment
2005 Change Change, 1975-2005
1975 1990 Low Moderate High 1975-90 Low Moderate High
Nonfarm wage and salary (1) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.4 .8 1.3 1.6
Goods-producing 29.5 22.8 18.6 19.0 18.9 0.7 -.6 .1 .4
Mining 1.0 .7 .5 .5 .5 -.4 -1.1 -.4 -.2
Construction 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.6 2.5 .5 1.1 1.6
Manufacturing 23.9 17.5 13.6 14.0 13.8 0.3 -.9 -.2 .0
Durable manufacturing 13.9 10.2 7.7 7.9 7.8 .3 -1.1 -.4 -.1
Nondurable manufacturing 10.0 7.3 5.9 6.0 5.9 .3 -.6 .0 .2
Service-producing 70.5 77.2 81.4 81.0 81.1 3.0 1.1 1.6 2.0
Transportation,
communications, utilities 5.9 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 1.7 .4 .9 1.2
Wholesale trade 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.3 .5 1.0 1.3
Retail trade 16.5 18.0 19.0 18.7 18.5 3.0 1.1 1.6 1.8
Finance, insurance, and
real estate 5.4 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 3.3 .8 1.3 1.6
Services (1) 17.8 25.2 29.5 29.4 29.5 4.8 1.8 2.3 2.7
Government 19.2 16.8 16.2 16.2 16.5 1.5 .6 1.1 1.5
Agriculture (2) (na) (na) (na) (na) (na) -.4 -.7 -.4 -.2
Private households (na) (na) (na) (na) (na) -1.9 -2.9 -2.4 -2.1
Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid
family workers (3) (na) (na) (na) (na) (na) 2.5 1.0 1.2 1.4
Total (4) (na) (na) (na) (na) (na) 2.3 .7 1.2 1.6
1) Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99
(nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not exactly
comparable with data published in Employment and Earnings.
2) Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private
sector SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).
3) Excludes SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).
4) Wage and salary data are from the BLS Current Employment
Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas
self-employed, unpaid family worker, agricultural, and private
household data are from the Current Population Survey (household
survey), which counts workers.
NOTE: (na) indicates not available.
Table 5. Employment by major occupational group, 1990 and projected
2005, moderate alternative projection, and percent change 1975-90
and 1990-2005
[Numbers in millions]
Occupation 1990 2005 Percent change
Number Percent Number Percent 1975-90 1990-2005
Total, all occupations 122.6 100.0 147.2 100.0 37.4 20.1
Executive, administrative, and managerial 12.5 10.2 15.9 10.8 83.1 27.4
Professional specialty 15.8 12.9 20.9 14.2 59.9 32.3
Technicians and related support 4.2 3.4 5.8 3.9 75.7 36.9
Marketing and sales 14.1 11.5 17.5 11.9 55.1 24.1
Administrative support occupations,
including clerical 22.0 17.9 24.8 16.9 33.9 13.1
Service occupations 19.2 15.7 24.8 16.9 36.1 29.2
Agricultural, forestry, fishing, and related
occupations 3.5 2.9 3.7 2.5 -9.8 4.5
Precision production, craft, and repair 14.1 11.5 15.9 10.8 28.9 12.6
Operators, fabricators, and laborers 17.2 14.1 18.0 12.2 6.7 4.2
NOTE: The 1990 and 2005 employment data and the projected change
1990-2005 are derived from the industry-occupation employment
matrixes for each year. The data on 1975-90 percent change were
derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS) because a
comparable industry-occupation matrix for 1975 is not available.
The CPS data represent estimates of employed persons and exclude the
estimates of persons with more than one job that are included in the
industry-occupation employment matrices. The CPS exclusion of dual
jobholders affects the employment levels and trends of some
occupational groups more than others. Therefore, the resulting
comparisions of change between 1975-90 and 1990-2005 are only
broadly indicative of trends.