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Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp USDL 04-148
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BLS RELEASES 2002-12 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released
projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely
composition of the workforce pursuing those jobs.
The 10-year projections of economic growth, employment by industry and
occupation, and labor force are widely used in career guidance, in planning
education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends.
Covering the 2002-12 decade, these projections reflect the 2000 Standard
Occupational Classification (SOC) system and the 2002 North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS).
Employment
Over the 2002-12 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 21.3
million jobs, or 15 percent. Over the previous decade (1992-2002), total
employment grew by 20.7 million jobs but at a slightly faster rate, 17 percent.
(The definition of employment used in these projections differs from
the definitions used in other BLS programs. See table 1.)
Industry employment
* Employment growth will be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the
economy. Education and health services and professional and business serv-
ices represent the industry divisions with the strongest projected employment
growth: projected to grow twice as fast as the overall economy. Information,
leisure and hospitality, and transportation and warehousing are other service
-providing industries that are projected to grow faster than average. (See
table 1.)
* Construction is the only goods-producing sector in which employment is pro-
jected to grow. Manufacturing, however, is expected to decline by 1 percent,
a much smaller decline than what occurred in the previous decade. Nonethe-
less, employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from
16 percent to 14 percent of total employment. Apparel manufacturing, textile
mills, and computer and electronic product manufacturing are the goods-
producing industries with the largest projected employment declines.
* The 10 fastest growing detailed industries, led by software publishers, are
in the service-providing sector. (See table 3a.)
Occupational employment
* Professional and related occupations and service occupations-two groups at
opposite ends of educational and earnings ranges-are projected to increase
the fastest and to add the most jobs, accounting for more than half of total
job growth over the 2002-12 decade. (See table 2.)
* Construction and extraction occupations are projected to grow at the same
rate as the average for all occupations-15 percent.
* Office and administrative support occupations, production occupations, and
farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected to grow much more
slowly than average.
* Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (infor-
mation technology) occupations. (See table 3b.)
* The 10 occupations adding the most jobs employ a large number of workers and
come from a wide range of occupational groups. (See table 3c.)
Education and training categories
* An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of post-
secondary education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations.
(See table 3b.)
* Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of post-
secondary education or training for 6 of the 10 occupations with the largest
job growth. (See table 3c.)
Labor force
* The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17.4 million over the
2002-12 decade, reaching 162.3 million by 2012. This 12-percent increase is
greater than the 11.3-percent increase over the previous decade, 1992-2002,
when the labor force grew by 14.4 million. (See table 4.) Changes in the
demographic composition of the labor force are expected because of changes
both in the composition of the population and in the rates of labor force
participation across demographic groups.
* The projected growth of the labor force will be affected by the aging of the
baby-boom generation-persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2012, baby-
boomers will be 48 to 66 years old. The number of workers in this age group
is expected to increase significantly over the 2002-12 decade. The labor
force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 55-and-older
group projected to grow by 49.3 percent, 4 times the 12-percent growth pro-
jected for the overall labor force. In 2012, youths-those between the ages
of 16 and 24-will constitute 15 percent of the labor force, and prime-age
workers-those between the ages of 25 and 54-will make up 66 percent of the
labor force. The share of the 55-and-older age group will increase from 14.3
percent to 19.1 percent of the labor force.
* The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are
projected to increase. The number of women in the labor force is projected
to grow by 14.3 percent, faster than the 10-percent growth projected for men.
As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected to increase by 1
percent, from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5 percent by 2012. In contrast,
men's share is projected to decline by 1 percent-from 53.5 percent to 52.5
percent-over the 2002-12 decade.
* By 2012, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 23.8 million, due to
faster population growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertil-
ity rates, and increased immigration levels. Despite relatively slow growth,
white non-Hispanics will remain the largest group, composing 66 percent of
the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing of the four
labor force groups.
Notes
More detailed information on the 2002-12 projections appears in five articles
in the February 2004 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic presentation of the
highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2003-04
Occupational Outlook Quarterly.
The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $49
a year; single copies are $15. The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies
are $6. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents.
Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individ-
uals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone:
1-800-877-8339.
Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Numeric Percent Percent Annual growth
Employment change change distribution rate (percent)
Industry division 1992 2002 1992 2002 1992 2002
1992 2002 2012 to to to to 1992 2002 2012 to to
2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012
Total(1) 123,325 144,014 165,319 20,689 21,305 16.8 14.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.6 1.4
Nonfarm wage and salary 109,526 131,063 152,690 21,537 21,627 19.7 16.5 88.8 91.0 92.4 1.8 1.5
Goods-Producing, excluding
agriculture 22,016 22,550 23,346 534 796 2.4 3.5 17.9 15.7 14.1 0.2 0.3
Mining 610 512 451 -98 -61 -16.1 -11.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 -1.7 -1.3
Construction 4,608 6,732 7,745 2,124 1,014 46.1 15.1 3.7 4.7 4.7 3.9 1.4
Manufacturing 16,799 15,307 15,149 -1,492 -158 -8.9 -1.0 13.6 10.6 9.2 -0.9 -0.1
Service-Providing 87,510 108,513 129,344 21,003 20,831 24.0 19.2 71.0 75.3 78.2 2.2 1.8
Utilities 726 600 565 -126 -34 -17.4 -5.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 -1.9 -0.6
Wholesale trade 5,110 5,641 6,279 531 638 10.4 11.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 1.0 1.1
Retail trade 12,828 15,047 17,129 2,219 2,082 17.3 13.8 10.4 10.4 10.4 1.6 1.3
Transportation and warehousing 3,462 4,205 5,120 744 914 21.5 21.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.0 2.0
Information 2,641 3,420 4,052 779 632 29.5 18.5 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.7
Financial activities 6,540 7,843 8,806 1,303 964 19.9 12.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 1.8 1.2
Professional and business services 10,969 16,010 20,876 5,040 4,866 45.9 30.4 8.9 11.1 12.6 3.9 2.7
Education and health services 11,891 16,184 21,329 4,293 5,145 36.1 31.8 9.6 11.2 12.9 3.1 2.8
Leisure and hospitality 9,437 11,969 14,104 2,532 2,135 26.8 17.8 7.7 8.3 8.5 2.4 1.7
Other services 5,120 6,105 7,065 985 960 19.2 15.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 1.8 1.5
Federal government 3,111 2,767 2,779 -344 12 -11.1 0.4 2.5 1.9 1.7 -1.2 0.0
State and local government 15,675 18,722 21,240 3,047 2,518 19.4 13.4 12.7 13.0 12.8 1.8 1.3
Agriculture(2) 2,639 2,245 1,905 -394 -340 -14.9 -15.1 2.1 1.6 1.2 -1.6 -1.6
Nonagriculture self-employed and
unpaid family workers 9,009 9,018 9,162 10 144 0.1 1.6 7.3 6.3 5.5 0.0 0.2
Secondary wage and salary jobs in
agricultural production, forestry,
fishing, and private household
industries(3) 178 143 128 -35 -15 -19.8 -10.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.2 -1.1
Secondary jobs as a self-employed
or unpaid family worker(4) 1,973 1,545 1,434 -428 -111 -21.7 -7.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 -2.4 -0.7
1. Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which
counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from
the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.
2. Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which
is from the Current Employment Survey and government wage and salary workers, which are excluded.
3. Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household
industries.
4. Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.
Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2002 and projected 2012
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change
Occupational group Number Percent distribution Number Percent
2002 2012 2002 2012
Total, all occupations 144,014 165,319 100.0 100.0 21,305 14.8
Management occupations 10,056 11,277 7.0 6.8 1,221 12.1
Business and financial operations occupations 5,445 6,606 3.8 4.0 1,162 21.3
Professional and related occupations 27,687 34,147 19.2 20.7 6,459 23.3
Computer and mathematical occupations 3,018 4,069 2.1 2.5 1,051 34.8
Architecture and engineering occupations 2,587 2,809 1.8 1.7 222 8.6
Life, physical, and social science occupations 1,237 1,450 0.9 0.9 212 17.2
Community and social services occupations 2,190 2,764 1.5 1.7 574 26.2
Legal occupations 1,168 1,357 0.8 0.8 190 16.2
Education, training, and library occupations 8,530 10,639 5.9 6.4 2,109 24.7
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 2,376 2,769 1.7 1.7 393 16.5
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 6,580 8,288 4.6 5.0 1,708 26.0
Service occupations 26,569 31,905 18.5 19.3 5,336 20.1
Healthcare support occupations 3,310 4,452 2.3 2.7 1,143 34.5
Protective service occupations 3,116 3,885 2.2 2.4 769 24.7
Food preparation and serving related occupations 10,200 11,807 7.1 7.1 1,607 15.8
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 5,485 6,386 3.8 3.9 901 16.4
Personal care and service occupations 4,458 5,375 3.1 3.3 917 20.6
Sales and related occupations 15,260 17,231 10.6 10.4 1,971 12.9
Office and administrative support occupations 23,851 25,464 16.6 15.4 1,613 6.8
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 1,072 1,107 0.7 0.7 35 3.3
Construction and extraction occupations 7,292 8,388 5.1 5.1 1,096 15.0
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 5,696 6,472 4.0 3.9 776 13.6
Production occupations 11,258 11,612 7.8 7.0 354 3.2
Transportation and material moving occupations 9,828 11,111 6.8 6.7 1,282 13.1
NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.
Table 3a. The 10 industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 2002-12
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change Annual growth
Industry 2002 2012 Number Percent rate (percent)
Software publishers 256.0 429.7 173.7 67.9 5.3
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 731.8 1,137.4 405.6 55.4 4.5
Community care facilities for the elderly and residential
care facilities, n.e.c. 695.3 1,077.6 382.3 55.0 4.5
Computer systems design and related services 1,162.7 1,797.7 635.0 54.6 4.5
Employment services 3,248.8 5,012.3 1,763.5 54.3 4.4
Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation
services 1,269.3 1,866.6 597.3 47.1 3.9
Ambulatory health care services except offices of health
practitioners 1,443.6 2,113.4 669.8 46.4 3.9
Water, sewage, and other systems 48.5 71.0 22.5 46.4 3.9
Internet services, data processing, and other information
services 528.8 773.1 244.3 46.2 3.9
Child day care services 734.2 1,050.3 316.1 43.1 3.6
NOTE: n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.
Table 3b. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2002-12
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change
Occupation Most significant source of post-
2002 2012 Number Percent secondary education or training(1)
Medical assistants 365 579 215 59 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Network systems and data communications analysts 186 292 106 57 Bachelor's degree
Physician assistants 63 94 31 49 Bachelor's degree
Social and human service assistants 305 454 149 49 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Home health aides 580 859 279 48 Short-term on-the-job training
Medical records and health information technicians 147 216 69 47 Associate degree
Physical therapist aides 37 54 17 46 Short-term on-the-job training
Computer software engineers, applications 394 573 179 46 Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers, systems software 281 409 128 45 Bachelor's degree
Physical therapist assistants 50 73 22 45 Associate degree
(1) An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most
workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected
Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and Training Data,Bulletin 2542 (Bureau
of Labor Statistics, January 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this
publication.
Table 3c. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 2002-12
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change
Occupation Most significant source of postsecondary
2002 2012 Number Percent education or training(1)
Registered nurses 2,284 2,908 623 27 Associate degree
Postsecondary teachers 1,581 2,184 603 38 Doctoral degree
Retail salespersons 4,076 4,672 596 15 Short-term on-the-job training
Customer service representatives 1,894 2,354 460 24 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Combined food preparation and serving
workers, including fast food 1,990 2,444 454 23 Short-term on-the-job training
Cashiers, except gaming 3,432 3,886 454 13 Short-term on-the-job training
Janitors and cleaners, except maids
and housekeeping cleaners 2,267 2,681 414 18 Short-term on-the-job training
General and operations managers 2,049 2,425 376 18 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
Waiters and waitresses 2,097 2,464 367 18 Short-term on-the-job training
Nursing aides, orderlies, and
attendants 1,375 1,718 343 25 Short-term on-the-job training
(1) An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most
workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected
Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and Training Data,Bulletin 2542 (Bureau
of Labor Statistics, January 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this
publication.
Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
(Numbers in thousands)
Change Percent Annual growth
Level Number Percent distribution rate (percent)
Group 1992 2002 1992 2002 1992 2002
1992 2002(2) 2002(3) 2012 to to to to 1992 2002(2) 2002(3) 2012 to to
2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012
Total, 16 years
and older 128,105 142,534 144,863 162,269 14,429 17,406 11.3 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.1
16 to 24 21,616 22,425 22,366 24,377 809 2,011 3.7 9.0 16.9 15.7 15.4 15.0 0.4 0.9
25 to 54 91,429 99,865 101,720 106,866 8,436 5,146 9.2 5.1 71.4 70.1 70.2 65.9 0.9 0.5
55 and older 15,060 20,244 20,777 31,026 5,184 10,249 34.4 49.3 11.8 14.2 14.3 19.1 3.0 4.1
Men 69,964 76,052 77,500 85,252 6,088 7,751 8.7 10.0 54.6 53.4 53.5 52.5 0.8 1.0
Women 58,141 66,481 67,363 77,017 8,340 9,654 14.3 14.3 45.4 46.6 46.5 47.5 1.3 1.3
One race
White 108,837 118,569 120,150 130,358 9,732 10,208 8.9 8.5 85.0 83.2 82.9 80.3 0.9 0.8
Black or African
American 14,162 16,834 16,564 19,765 2,672 3,201 18.9 19.3 11.1 11.8 11.4 12.2 1.7 1.8
Asian 5,106 7,130 5,949 8,971 2,024 3,022 39.6 50.8 4.0 5.0 4.1 5.5 3.4 4.2
All other groups(1) n/a n/a 2,200 3,175 n/a 975 n/a 44.3 n/a n/a 1.5 2.0 n/a 3.7
Hispanic or Latino 11,338 16,200 17,942 23,785 4,862 5,843 42.9 32.6 8.9 11.4 12.4 14.7 3.6 2.9
Other than
Hispanic origin 116,767 126,334 126,921 138,484 9,567 11,562 8.2 9.1 91.1 88.6 87.6 85.3 0.8 0.9
White (only)
non-Hispanic 98,724 103,360 103,348 106,237 4,636 2,889 4.7 2.8 77.1 72.5 71.3 65.5 0.5 0.3
1. The All other group includes those reporting the race categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or
(1b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders, and (2) those reporting two or more races.
2. Data calculated with 1990 census weights.
3. Data calculated with 2000 census weights.
Data for 1992 represent the "Asian & other" race category with 1990 census weights.
Data for 2002 and 2012 represents the "Asian only" race category with 2000 census weights.
The historical data for 2002 has been computed for "All other groups".