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News Bureau of Labor Statistics Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp Technical Information: (202) 691-5700 Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 United States Department of Labor Washington, D.C. 20212 USDL 04-148 For release: 10 A.M. EST Wednesday, February 11, 2004 BLS RELEASES 2002-12 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely composition of the workforce pursuing those jobs. The 10-year projections of economic growth, employment by industry and occupation, and labor force are widely used in career guidance, in planning education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends. Covering the 2002-12 decade, these projections reflect the 2000 Standard Occupatio nal Classification (SOC) system and the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Employment Over the 2002-12 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 21.3 million jobs, or 15 percent. Over the previous decade (1992-2002), total employment grew by 20.7 million jobs but at a slightly faster rate, 17 percent. (The definition of employment used in these projections differs from the definitions used in other BLS programs. See table 1.) Industry employment • Employment growth will be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. Education and health services and professional and business services represent the industry divisions with the strongest projected employment growth: projected to grow twice as fast as the overall economy. Information, leisure and hospitality, and transportation and warehousing are other service-providing industries that are projected to grow faster than average. (See table 1.) • Construction is the only goods-producing sector in which employment is projected to grow. Manufacturing, however, is expected to decline by 1 percent, a much smaller decline than what occurred in the previous decade. Nonetheless, employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 16 percent to 14 percent of total employment. Apparel manufacturing, textile mills, and computer and electronic product manufacturing are the goodsproducing industries with the largest projected employment declines. • The 10 fastest growing detailed industries, led by software publishers, are in the serviceproviding sector. (See table 3a.) Occupational employment • Professional and related occupations and service occupations—two groups at opposite ends of educational and earnings ranges—are projected to increase the fastest and to add the most jobs, accounting for more than half of total job growth over the 2002-12 decade. (See table 2.) • Construction and extraction occupations are projected to grow at the same rate as the average for all occupations—15 percent. • Office and administrative support occupations, production occupations, and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected to grow much more slowly than average. • Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (information technology) occupations. (See table 3b.) • The 10 occupations adding the most jobs employ a large number of workers and come from a wide range of occupational groups. (See table 3c.) Education and training categories • An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations. (See table 3b.) • Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 6 of the 10 occupations with the largest job growth. (See table 3c.) Labor force • The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17.4 million over the 2002-12 decade, reaching 162.3 million by 2012. This 12-percent increase is greater than the 11.3-percent increase over the previous decade, 1992-2002, when the labor force grew by 14.4 million. (See table 4.) Changes in the demographic composition of the labor force are expected because of changes both in the composition of the population and in the rates of labor force participation across demographic groups. • The projected growth of the labor force will be affected by the aging of the baby-boom generation—persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2012, baby-boomers will be 48 to 66 years old. The number of workers in this age group is expected to increase significant ly over the 2002-12 decade. The labor force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 55-and-older group projected to grow by 49.3 percent, 4 times the 12-percent growth projected for the overall labor force. In 2012, youths —those between the ages of 16 and 24—will constitute 15 percent of the labor force, and prime-age workers—those between the ages of 25 and 54—will make up 66 percent of the labor force. The share of the 55-and-older age group will increase from 14.3 percent to 19.1 percent of the labor force. • The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected to increase. The number of women in the labor force is projected to grow by 14.3 percent, faster than the 10-percent growth projected for men. As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected to increase by 1 percent, from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5 percent by 2012. In contrast, men's share is projected to decline by 1 percent—from 53.5 percent to 52.5 percent—over the 200212 decade. • By 2012, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 23.8 million, due to faster population growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertility rates, and increased immigration levels. Despite relatively slow growth, white non-Hispanics will remain the largest group, composing 66 percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing of the four labor force groups. Notes More detailed information on the 2002-12 projections appears in five articles in the February 2004 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2003-04 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $49 a year; single copies are $15. The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies are $6. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339. Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Employment Industry division Numeric change Percent change Percent distribution Annual growth rate (percent) 1992-2002 2002-12 1.6 1.4 1992 123,325 2002 144,014 2012 165,319 1992-2002 20,689 2002-12 21,305 1992-2002 16.8 2002-12 14.8 1992 100.0 2002 100.0 2012 100.0 109,526 131,063 152,690 21,537 21,627 19.7 16.5 88.8 91.0 92.4 1.8 1.5 Goods-Producing, excluding agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing 22,016 610 4,608 16,799 22,550 512 6,732 15,307 23,346 451 7,745 15,149 534 -98 2,124 -1,492 796 -61 1,014 -158 2.4 -16.1 46.1 -8.9 3.5 -11.8 15.1 -1.0 17.9 0.5 3.7 13.6 15.7 0.4 4.7 10.6 14.1 0.3 4.7 9.2 0.2 -1.7 3.9 -0.9 0.3 -1.3 1.4 -0.1 Service-Providing Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Financial activities Professional and business services Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Other services Federal government State and local government 87,510 726 5,110 12,828 3,462 2,641 6,540 10,969 11,891 9,437 5,120 3,111 15,675 108,513 600 5,641 15,047 4,205 3,420 7,843 16,010 16,184 11,969 6,105 2,767 18,722 129,344 565 6,279 17,129 5,120 4,052 8,806 20,876 21,329 14,104 7,065 2,779 21,240 21,003 -126 531 2,219 744 779 1,303 5,040 4,293 2,532 985 -344 3,047 20,831 -34 638 2,082 914 632 964 4,866 5,145 2,135 960 12 2,518 24.0 -17.4 10.4 17.3 21.5 29.5 19.9 45.9 36.1 26.8 19.2 -11.1 19.4 19.2 -5.7 11.3 13.8 21.7 18.5 12.3 30.4 31.8 17.8 15.7 0.4 13.4 71.0 0.6 4.1 10.4 2.8 2.1 5.3 8.9 9.6 7.7 4.2 2.5 12.7 75.3 0.4 3.9 10.4 2.9 2.4 5.4 11.1 11.2 8.3 4.2 1.9 13.0 78.2 0.3 3.8 10.4 3.1 2.5 5.3 12.6 12.9 8.5 4.3 1.7 12.8 2.2 -1.9 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.4 1.8 -1.2 1.8 1.8 -0.6 1.1 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.2 2.7 2.8 1.7 1.5 0.0 1.3 Agriculture 2 2,639 2,245 1,905 -394 -340 -14.9 -15.1 2.1 1.6 1.2 -1.6 -1.6 Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers 9,009 9,018 9,162 10 144 0.1 1.6 7.3 6.3 5.5 0.0 0.2 178 143 128 -35 -15 -19.8 -10.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.2 -1.1 1,973 1,545 1,434 -428 -111 -21.7 -7.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 -2.4 -0.7 Total 1 Nonfarm wage and salary Secondary wage and salary jobs in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries 3 Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid family worker 4 1. Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers. 2. Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from the Current Employment Survey and government wage and salary workers, which are excluded. 3. Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries. 4. Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2002 and projected 2012 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Occupational group Total, all occupations Management occupations Business and financial operations occupations Professional and related occupations Computer and mathematical occupations Architecture and engineering occupations Life, physical, and social science occupations Community and social services occupations Legal occupations Education, training, and library occupations Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations Service occupations Healthcare support occupations Protective service occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Personal care and service occupations Sales and related occupations Office and administrative support occupations Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Construction and extraction occupations Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Production occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Employment Change Number Percent distribution Number Percent 2002 2012 2002 2012 144,014 165,319 100.0 100.0 21,305 14.8 10,056 5,445 27,687 3,018 2,587 1,237 2,190 1,168 8,530 2,376 6,580 26,569 3,310 3,116 10,200 5,485 4,458 15,260 23,851 1,072 7,292 5,696 11,258 9,828 11,277 6,606 34,147 4,069 2,809 1,450 2,764 1,357 10,639 2,769 8,288 31,905 4,452 3,885 11,807 6,386 5,375 17,231 25,464 1,107 8,388 6,472 11,612 11,111 7.0 3.8 19.2 2.1 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.8 5.9 1.7 4.6 18.5 2.3 2.2 7.1 3.8 3.1 10.6 16.6 0.7 5.1 4.0 7.8 6.8 6.8 4.0 20.7 2.5 1.7 0.9 1.7 0.8 6.4 1.7 5.0 19.3 2.7 2.4 7.1 3.9 3.3 10.4 15.4 0.7 5.1 3.9 7.0 6.7 1,221 1,162 6,459 1,051 222 212 574 190 2,109 393 1,708 5,336 1,143 769 1,607 901 917 1,971 1,613 35 1,096 776 354 1,282 12.1 21.3 23.3 34.8 8.6 17.2 26.2 16.2 24.7 16.5 26.0 20.1 34.5 24.7 15.8 16.4 20.6 12.9 6.8 3.3 15.0 13.6 3.2 13.1 NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. Table 3a. The 10 industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 2002-12 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Change Employment Industry 2002 2012 Number Percent Software publishers Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Community care facilities for the elderly and residential care facilities, n.e.c. Computer systems design and related services Employment services Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation services Ambulatory health care services except offices of health practitioners Water, sewage, and other systems Internet services, data processing, and other information services Child day care services 256.0 731.8 695.3 1,162.7 3,248.8 1,269.3 1,443.6 48.5 528.8 734.2 429.7 1,137.4 1,077.6 1,797.7 5,012.3 1,866.6 2,113.4 71.0 773.1 1,050.3 173.7 405.6 382.3 635.0 1,763.5 597.3 669.8 22.5 244.3 316.1 67.9 55.4 55.0 54.6 54.3 47.1 46.4 46.4 46.2 43.1 Annual growth rate (percent) 5.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.6 NOTE: n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. Table 3b. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2002-12 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Employment Occupation Medical assistants Network systems and data communications analysts Physician assistants Social and human service assistants Home health aides Medical records and health information technicians Physical therapist aides Computer software engineers, applications Computer software engineers, systems software Physical therapist assistants 2002 365 186 63 305 580 147 37 394 281 50 Most significant source of postsecondary education or Percent training1 59 Moderate-term on-the-job training 57 Bachelor's degree 49 Bachelor's degree 49 Moderate-term on-the-job training 48 Short-term on-the-job training 47 Associate degree 46 Short-term on-the-job training 46 Bachelor's degree 45 Bachelor's degree 45 Associate degree Change 2012 579 292 94 454 859 216 54 573 409 73 Number 215 106 31 149 279 69 17 179 128 22 1. An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2542 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan. 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this publication. Table 3c. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 2002-12 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Employment Occupation 2002 Registered nurses Postsecondary teachers Retail salespersons Customer service representatives Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food Cashiers, except gaming Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners General and operations managers Waiters and waitresses Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 2,284 1,581 4,076 1,894 1,990 3,432 2,267 2,049 2,097 1,375 Change 2012 2,908 2,184 4,672 2,354 2,444 3,886 2,681 2,425 2,464 1,718 Number Percent 623 603 596 460 454 454 414 376 367 343 27 38 15 24 23 13 18 18 18 25 Most significant source of postsecondary 1 education or training Associate degree Doctoral degree Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 1. An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2542 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this publication. Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012 (Numbers in thousands) Level Group 2002 1990 2000 census census weights weights 142,534 144,863 19922002 2002 1990 2000 census census weights weights 100.0 100.0 1982-92 162,269 17,901 14,429 17,406 16.2 11.3 12.0 100.0 100.0 22,366 101,720 20,777 24,377 106,866 31,026 -2,990 20,923 -32 809 8,436 5,184 2,011 5,146 10,249 -12.2 29.7 -0.2 3.7 9.2 34.4 9.0 5.1 49.3 22.3 64.0 13.7 16.9 71.4 11.8 15.7 70.1 14.2 76,052 66,481 77,500 67,363 85,252 77,017 7,514 10,387 6,088 8,340 7,751 9,654 12.0 21.8 8.7 14.3 10.0 14.3 56.7 43.3 54.6 45.4 108,837 14,162 5,106 n/a 118,569 16,834 7,130 n/a 120,150 16,564 5,949 2,200 130,358 19,765 8,971 3,175 12,694 2,831 2,376 n/a 9,732 2,672 2,024 n/a 10,208 3,201 3,022 975 13.2 25.0 87.0 n/a 8.9 18.9 39.6 n/a 8.5 19.3 50.8 44.3 87.2 10.3 2.5 n/a 11,338 116,767 98,724 16,200 126,334 103,360 17,942 126,921 103,348 23,785 138,484 106,237 4,604 13,297 9,094 4,862 9,567 4,636 5,843 11,562 2,889 68.4 12.9 10.1 42.9 8.2 4.7 32.6 9.1 2.8 6.1 93.9 81.3 110,204 128,105 24,606 70,506 15,092 21,616 91,429 15,060 22,425 99,865 20,244 Men Women 62,450 47,754 69,964 58,141 One race White Black or African American Asian All other groups1 96,143 11,331 2,730 n/a Hispanic or Latino Other than Hispanic origin White (only) non-Hispanic 6,734 103,470 89,630 2002-12 1982-92 Annual growth rate (percent) Percent distribution 2012 1992 16 to 24 25 to 54 55 and older Percent change 19922002 1982 Total, 16 years and older Numeric change 2002-12 1982 1992 2012 1982-92 19922002 2002-12 100.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 15.4 70.2 14.3 15.0 65.9 19.1 -1.3 2.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 3.0 0.9 0.5 4.1 53.4 46.6 53.5 46.5 52.5 47.5 1.1 2.0 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.3 85.0 11.1 4.0 n/a 83.2 11.8 5.0 n/a 82.9 11.4 4.1 1.5 80.3 12.2 5.5 2.0 1.2 2.3 6.5 n/a 0.9 1.7 3.4 n/a 0.8 1.8 4.2 3.7 8.9 91.1 77.1 11.4 88.6 72.5 12.4 87.6 71.3 14.7 85.3 65.5 5.3 1.2 1.0 3.6 0.8 0.5 2.9 0.9 0.3 1. The “All other” group includes those reporting the race categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders, and (2) those reporting two or more races. Data for 1982 and 1992 represents the "Asian & other" race category with 1990 census weights. Data for 2002 and 2012 represents the "Asian only" race category with 2000 census weights. The historical data for 2002 has been computed for "All other groups".