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Technical Information: (202) 691-5700 USDL 01-443 Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 For release: 10A.M. EST Monday, December 3, 2001 Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp BLS RELEASES 2000-2010 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Projections for the American workforce covering 2000 to 2010 were issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry and occupation and the likely composition of the work force pursuing those jobs. The 10-year projections of employment by industry and occupation, labor force, and economic growth are widely used in career guidance, in planning education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends. These projections use the new Standard Occupational Classification SOC) system. The BLS projections were completed prior to the tragic events of September 11. While there have been numerous immediate economic impacts of this tragedy, the nature and severity of longer-term impacts remain unclear. At this time, it is impossible to know how individual industries or occupations may be affected over the next decade. BLS will continue to review its projections and, as the long-term consequences of September 11 become clearer, will incorporate these effects in subsequent analyses of industrial and occupational outlook. Employment Over the 2000-2010 period, total employment is projected to increase by 15 percent, slightly less than the 17 percent growth during the previous decade, 1990-2000. (The definition of employment used in these projections differs from those used in other BLS programs. (See Table 1) Industry Employment * The service-producing sector will continue to be the dominant employment generator in the economy, adding 20.5 million jobs by 2010. Within the goods-producing sector, construction and durable manufacturing will contribute relatively modest employment gains. * As employment in the service-producing sector increases by 19 percent, manufacturing employment is expected to increase by only 3 percent over the 2000-2010 period. Manufacturing will return to its 1990 employment level of 19.1 million, but its share of total jobs is expected to decline from 13 percent in 2000 to 11 percent in 2010. * Health services, business services, social services, and engineering, management, and related services are expected to account for almost one of every two nonfarm wage and salary jobs added to the economy during the 2000-2010 period. These sectors account for a large share of the fastest-growing industries. (See Table 3a) Occupational employment * Professional and related occupations and service occupations are projected to increase the fastest and to add the most jobs-7.0 million and 5.1 million, respectively. These two groups-on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum-are expected to provide more than half of total job growth over the 2000-2010 period. (See Table 2) * Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15 percent, about the same as the average for all occupations * Office and administrative support occupations are projected to grow more slowly than average, reflecting long-term trends in office automation. Production occupations should grow much more slowly than average because of advances in manufacturing technology. * Eight of the 10 fastest growing occupations are computer-related, commonly referred to as information technology occupations. (See Table 3b) * The 10 occupations adding the most jobs come from a wide range of occupational groups. (See Table 3c) Education and training categories * Employment in all seven education or training categories that generally require a college degree or other post secondary award is projected to grow faster than the average across all occupations. These categories accounted for 29 percent of all jobs in 2000 but will account for 42 percent of projected new job growth, 2000-2010. (See Table 4) * The four categories requiring work-related training are projected to grow more slowly than average, but would still add a substantial number of jobs. Labor force The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17 million over the 2000-2010 period, reaching 158 million in 2010. This 12.0-percent increase is only slightly greater than the 11.9-percent increase over the previous decade, 1990-2000, when the labor force grew by 15 million. (See Table 5) The demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change because of changes in both the demographic composition of the population and in the rates of workforce participation across demographic groups. * In 2010, the baby-boom cohort will be ages 46 to 64, and this age group will account for a substantial share of the labor force. The median age of the labor force will continue to rise, even though the youth labor force (aged 16 to 24) is expected to grow more rapidly than the overall labor force for the first time in 25 years. * The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected to increase. The women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men's, and the women's share of the labor force will increase sharply from 47 percent in 2000 to 48 percent in 2010. * The labor force group, Asian and other, and the Hispanic labor force are projected to increase faster than other groups, 44 percent and 36 percent, respectively, because of high net immigration and higher than average fertility. The black labor force is expected to grow by 21 percent, more than twice as fast as the 9 percent growth rate for the white labor force. * The share of the labor force will increase from 5 to 6 percent for the Asian and other group and from 11 to 13 percent for Hispanics. White non-Hispanics accounted for 73 percent of the labor force in 2000. Their share of the labor force in 2010 will decrease to 69 percent. Notes More detailed information on the 2000-2010 projections appears in four articles in the November 2001 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2001-02 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $43 a year; single copies are $13. The Quarterly costs $14 a year; single copies are $5.50. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339. Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Industry Thousands of jobs Change Percent distribution Average annual rate of change 1990 2000 2010 1990-00 2000-10 1990 2000 2010 Total(1) 124,324 145,594 167,754 21,269 22,160 98.2 98.8 99.0 1.6 1.4 Nonfarm wage and salary Goods producing Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 108,760 24,906 709 5,120 19,077 11,109 7,968 130,639 25,709 543 6,698 18,469 11,138 7,331 152,447 27,057 488 7,522 19,047 11,780 7,267 21,879 803 -167 1,578 -607 29 -637 21,807 1,347 -55 825 577 642 -64 87.5 20.0 0.6 4.1 15.3 8.9 6.4 89.7 17.7 0.4 4.6 12.7 7.7 5.0 90.9 16.1 0.3 4.5 11.4 7.0 4.3 1.8 0.3 -2.6 2.7 -0.3 0.0 -0.8 1.6 0.5 -1.1 1.2 0.3 0.6 -0.1 83,854 104,930 125,390 21,076 20,461 67.4 72.1 74.7 2.3 1.8 5,776 6,173 19,601 7,019 7,024 23,307 8,274 7,800 26,400 1,243 851 3,706 1,255 776 3,093 4.6 5.0 15.8 4.8 4.8 16.0 4.9 4.6 15.7 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.3 6,709 27,291 18,304 3,085 15,219 7,560 39,340 20,680 2,777 17,903 8,247 52,233 22,436 2,622 19,814 851 12,049 2,376 -308 2,684 687 12,893 1,757 -154 1,911 5.4 22.0 14.7 2.5 12.2 5.2 27.0 14.2 1.9 12.3 4.9 31.1 13.4 1.6 11.8 1.2 3.7 1.2 -1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 0.8 -0.6 1.0 Agriculture(2) 3,340 Private household wage and salary 1,014 Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers(3) 8,921 Secondary wage and salary jobs in agricutlure (except agricultural services); forestry, fishing, and trapping; and private households(4) 205 Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid family worker(5) 2084 3,526 890 3,849 664 186 -124 323 -226 2.7 0.8 2.4 0.6 2.3 0.4 0.5 -1.3 0.9 -2.9 8,731 9,062 -190 331 7.2 6.0 5.4 -0.2 0.4 155 150 -50 -5 0.2 0.1 0.1 -2.8 -0.3 1652 1582 -432 -70 1.7 1.1 0.9 -2.3 -0.4 Service producing Transportaion, communications, utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Government Federal Government State and local government 1990-00 2000-10 (1) Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current populaiton Survey (household survey), which counts workers. (2) Excludes government wage and salary workers, and inlcudes private sector for SIC 08, 09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping). (3) Exludes SIC 08,09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping). (4) Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agriculture (except agricultural services); forestry, fishing, hunting and trapping; and private households. (5) Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Occupational group Employment Percent distribution 2010 2000 2010 Number 2000 Total, all occupations Management, business, and financial occupations Professional and related occupations Service occupations Sales and related occupations Office and administrative support occupations Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Construction and extraction occupations Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Production occupations Transportation and material moving occupations 145,594 167,754 100.0 100.0 22,160 15.2 15,519 26,758 26,075 15,513 23,882 1,429 7,451 5,820 13,060 10,088 17,635 33,709 31,163 17,365 26,053 1,480 8,439 6,482 13,811 11,618 10.7 18.4 17.9 10.7 16.4 1.0 5.1 4.0 9.0 6.9 10.5 20.1 18.6 10.4 15.5 .9 5.0 3.9 8.2 6.9 2,115 6,952 5,088 1,852 2,171 51 989 662 750 1,530 13.6 26.0 19.5 11.9 9.1 3.6 13.3 11.4 5.7 15.2 NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. Table 3a. Industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 2000-2010 Industry description Computer and data processing services Residential care Health services, nec. Cable and pay television services Personnel supply services Warehousing and storage Water and sanitation Miscellaneous business services Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing Management and public relations Thousands of jobs 2000 2010 2,095 806 1,210 216 3,887 206 214 2,301 279 1,090 NOTE: nec. = not elsewhere classified Table 3b. Fastest growing occupations, 2000-10 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Change Percent Number 3,900 1,318 1,900 325 5,800 300 310 3,305 397 1,550 Change 2000-2010 1,805 512 690 109 1,913 94 96 1,004 118 460 Average annual rate of change 2000-2010 6.4 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 Employment Change Occupation Computer software engineers, applications Computer support specialists Computer software engineers, systems software Network and computer systems administrators Network systems and data communications analysts Desktop publishers Database administrators Personal and home care aides Computer systems analysts Medical assistants Table 3c. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2000-10 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] 2000 2010 Number 380 506 317 229 119 38 106 414 431 329 760 996 601 416 211 63 176 672 689 516 380 490 284 187 92 25 70 258 258 187 Percent 100 97 90 82 77 67 66 62 60 57 Employment Change Occupation 2000 2010 Number Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 2,206 2,879 Customer service representatives 1,946 2,577 Registered nurses 2,194 2,755 Retail salespersons 4,109 4,619 Computer support specialists 506 996 Cashiers, except gaming 3,325 3,799 Office clerks, general 2,705 3,135 Security guards 1,106 1,497 Computer software engineers, applications 380 760 Waiters and waitresses 1,983 2,347 Table 4. Employment and total job openings by education or training category, 2000-2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Most significant source of education or training Total, all occupations Number 673 631 561 510 490 474 430 391 380 364 2000 2010 2000 2010 145,594 167,754 100.0 100.0 Number 22,160 Percent Percent distribution 100.0 30 32 26 12 97 14 16 35 100 18 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2000-2010(1) Change, 2000-2010 Percent distribution Percent 15.2 Number Percent distribution 57,932 100.0 Bachelor's or higher degree First professional degree Doctoral degree Master's degree Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience Bachelor's degree 30,072 2,034 1,492 1,426 36,556 2,404 1,845 1,759 20.7 1.4 1.0 1.0 21.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 6,484 370 353 333 29.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 21.6 18.2 23.7 23.4 12,130 691 760 634 20.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 7,319 17,801 8,741 21,807 5.0 12.2 5.2 13.0 1,422 4,006 6.4 18.1 19.4 22.5 2,741 7,304 4.7 12.6 11,761 5,083 6,678 14,600 6,710 7,891 8.1 3.5 4.6 8.7 4.0 4.7 2,839 1,626 1,213 12.8 7.3 5.5 24.1 32.0 18.2 5,383 2,608 2,775 9.3 4.5 4.8 103,760 116,597 71.3 69.5 12,837 57.9 12.4 40,419 69.8 10,456 11,559 7.2 6.9 1,102 5.0 10.5 3,180 5.5 12,435 13,373 8.5 8.0 938 4.2 7.5 3,737 6.5 27,671 30,794 19.0 18.4 3,123 14.1 11.3 8,767 15.1 53,198 60,871 36.5 36.3 7,673 34.6 14.4 24,735 42.7 Associate degree or postsecondary vocational award Associate degree Postsecondary vocational award Work-related training Work experience in a related occupation Long-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training (1) Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. Table 5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands] Level Group Total, 16 years and older 16 to 24 25 to 54 55 and older Men, Total Women, Total 1990 2000 2010 125,840 140,863 157,721 22,492 88,322 15,026 22,715 26,081 99,974 104,994 18,175 26,646 69,011 56,829 75,247 65,616 82,221 75,500 Change Percent change 1990-2000 2000-10 1990-2000 2000-10 Percent distribution 1990 2000 2010 Annual growth rate (percent) 1990-2000 2000-10 15,023 16,858 11.9 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.1 223 11,652 3,149 3,366 5,020 8,471 1.0 13.2 21.0 14.8 5.0 46.6 17.9 70.2 11.9 16.1 71.0 12.9 16.5 66.6 16.9 0.1 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.5 3.9 6,236 8,787 6,974 9,884 9.0 15.5 9.3 15.1 54.8 45.2 53.4 46.6 52.1 47.9 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.4 White, Total Black, Total Asian and other, Total(1) Hispanic origin, Total Other than Hispanic origin, Total White nonHispanic 107,447 117,574 128,043 13,740 16,603 20,041 10,127 2,863 10,470 3,439 9.4 20.8 8.9 20.7 85.4 10.9 83.5 11.8 81.2 12.7 0.9 1.9 0.9 1.9 4,653 6,687 9,636 2,034 2,950 43.7 44.1 3.7 4.7 6.1 3.7 3.7 10,720 15,368 20,947 4,648 5,579 43.4 36.3 8.5 10.9 13.3 3.7 3.1 115,120 125,495 136,774 10,375 11,279 9.0 9.0 91.5 89.1 86.7 0.9 0.9 97,818 102,963 109,118 5,144 6,155 5.3 6.0 77.7 73.1 69.2 0.5 0.6 (1) The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" and "white" from the total; projections are made directly, not by subtraction.