Title:

Predicting Recessions, No. 19-12

PREVIOUS | NEXT

Predicting Recessions, No. 19-12

DATE: December 2019

PART OF: AUTHORS: CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR:

ABSTRACT: This Economic Brief evaluates the predictive capabilities of the yield curve and several other leading indicators, including the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturing activity, consumer lending, and CEO optimism. According to in-sample statistical analysis, several indicators — particularly the three-month/ten-year term spread and the LEI — have demonstrated significant value in predicting recessions during the past sixty years.

Download (pdf) View Full Text

Share this page:


Diversity is critical to the Federal Reserve, and we are firmly committed to fostering a diverse and inclusive culture throughout the Federal Reserve System. Collections within FRASER contain historical language, content, and descriptions that reflect the time period within which they were created and the views of their creators. Certain collections contain objectionable content—for example, discriminatory or biased language used to refer to racial, ethnic, and cultural groups. These viewpoints and attitudes are inconsistent with our values, but the original descriptions are retained to ensure that they are not erased from the historical record.
Save & Share
less

Murphy, Matthew , Romero, Jessica Sackett , Webb, Roy H. and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. "Predicting Recessions, No. 19-12," Economic Brief (December 2019). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/6034/item/584846, accessed on March 22, 2023.

More Information
less

THEMES:

Metadata (XML)
Metadata (JSON)