Home > Browse by Title > Economic Brief

Title

Why Predicted and Actual Tariff Rates Diverged in May 2025, No. 25-29

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Why Predicted and Actual Tariff Rates Diverged in May 2025, No. 25-29

DATE: August 2025

PART OF: AUTHOR:

ABSTRACT:

In May, the average effective tariff rate (AETR) implied by announced tariff policies — which I call the "predicted AETR" — stood at 17.5 percent. Yet, the actual AETR calculated from the Census Bureau's May trade data was just 8.7 percent. This 8.8-percentage-point gap raises important questions about how tariffs are implemented and how businesses respond to policy changes. This article uses detailed product-level and country-level trade and tariff data to unpack the sources of this discrepancy.

Download (pdf) View Full Text

Share this page:


Collections within FRASER contain historical language, content, and descriptions that reflect the time period within which they were created and the views of their creators. Certain collections contain objectionable content—for example, discriminatory or biased language used to refer to racial, ethnic, and cultural groups.
Save & Share

Azzimonti-Renzo, Marina. "Why Predicted and Actual Tariff Rates Diverged in May 2025, No. 25-29," Economic Brief (August 2025). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/6034/item/690659, accessed on December 8, 2025.

More Information

THEMES:

RIGHTS: In Copyright (InC)

Metadata (XML)
Metadata (JSON)