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How Expectations About Future Productivity Drive Inventories, No. 22-03

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How Expectations About Future Productivity Drive Inventories, No. 22-03

DATE: January 2022

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ABSTRACT: To what extent do expectations about future productivity developments drive business cycles? This Economic Brief reviews the state of the literature and discusses how new research by the authors establishes a novel method to answer. We specifically focus on firms' inventories, which stock goods available for future sales. We find that these inventories expand strongly to news about future productivity developments. This confirms that expectations about future productivity are a powerful force behind aggregate fluctuations, a finding with important implications for widely used economic models.

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Lubik, Thomas A. , Görtz, Christoph G. , Gunn, Christopher M. and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. "How Expectations About Future Productivity Drive Inventories, No. 22-03," Economic Brief (January 2022). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/6034/item/610858, accessed on August 10, 2022.

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