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COVID-19 Over Time and Across States : Predictions From a Statistical Model, No. 20-10

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COVID-19 Over Time and Across States : Predictions From a Statistical Model, No. 20-10

DATE: September 2020

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ABSTRACT: We discuss a statistical time series model to capture and forecast the dynamics of COVID-19 in the fifty U.S. states and Washington, D.C. We design the model to replicate the typical pattern of infections during a pandemic. We rely on Bayesian methods, which provide a straightforward way to quantify the uncertainty surrounding our estimates and forecasts. In this brief, we focus on North Carolina and Washington, D.C., since they have experienced different trajectories of COVID-19 and may have different implications for the efficacy of our approach.


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Ho, Paul , Lubik, Thomas A. , Matthes, Christian, 1979- and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. "COVID-19 Over Time and Across States : Predictions From a Statistical Model, No. 20-10," Economic Brief (September 2020). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/6034/item/596464, accessed on November 26, 2022.

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