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E.15 (125) AGRICULTURAL FINANCE DATABOOK Third Quarter 1998 Guide to internal tables of contents and notes on sources Amount and characteristics of farm loans made by commercial banks Page 3 Selected statistics from the quarterly reports of condition of commercial banks Reserve bank surveys of farm credit conditions and farm land values Division of Research and Statistics Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Washington, D.C. 20551 Nicholas A. Walraven and Melissa Post 22 33 2 General Information The A g r i c u l t u r a l F i n a n c e D a t a b o o k is a c o m p i l a t i o n of v a r i o u s data on c u r r e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s in a g r i c u l t u r a l finance. L a r g e p o r t i o n s of t h e d a t a c o m e f r o m r e g u l a r s u r v e y s c o n d u c t e d by t h e B o a r d of G o v e r n o r s of t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m or F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k s . O t h e r p o r t i o n s of t h e d a t a c o m e f r o m the q u a r t e r l y c a l l report d a t a of c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s or from t h e r e p o r t s of o t h e r f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s i n v o l v e d in a g r i c u l t u r a l lending. W h e n t h e c u r r e n t i s s u e w e n t to p r e s s , d a t a from the s u r v e y of t e r m s of b a n k l e n d i n g w e r e a v a i l a b l e for the third q u a r t e r of 1998; the o t h e r d a t a g e n e r a l l y w e r e a v a i l a b l e t h r o u g h J u n e 1 9 9 8 . Parts or all of the A g r i c u l t u r a l F i n a n c e D a t a b o o k m a y be c o p i e d and d i s t r i b u t e d f r e e l y . A n y r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of s e l e c t e d p a r t s of the D a t a b o o k s h o u l d be a c c o m p a n i e d by the " c o n t e n t s " p a g e s at t h e b e g i n n i n g of t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s e c t i o n , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e f r o n t c o v e r i d e n t i f y i n g the D a t a b o o k and d a t e of i s s u e , and t h i s p a g e providing subscription information. R e m a i n i n g q u e s t i o n s m a y be a d d r e s s e d to N i c h o l a s W a l r a v e n or M e l i s s a Post at the a d d r e s s s h o w n on the c o v e r . T h e D a t a b o o k is f u r n i s h e d on a c o m p l i m e n t a r y b a s i s to c o l l e g e and u n i v e r s i t y t e a c h e r s . l i b r a r i e s of e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . g o v e r n m e n t d e p a r t m e n t s and a g e n c i e s , and p u b l i c l i b r a r i e s . Others should the a n n u a l s u b s c r i p t i o n fee of $ 5 . 0 0 . N e w s u b s c r i p t i o n s to t h e ( i n c l u d i n g zip c o d e ) to: Databook Publications Services, Mail Federal Reserve Board Washington, D.C. 20551 (Statistical Stop E . 1 5 ) m a y be entered by sending a mailing address 138 N o t i c e of c h a n g e of a d d r e s s a l s o s h o u l d the old a d d r e s s s h o u l d be i n c l u d e d . Release enclose be sent to Publications Services. A copy of the b a c k cover showing SECTION I: Estimates AMOUNT from Summary the AND CHARACTERISTICS quarterly survey of OF FARM LOANS MADE non-real - estate BY farm COMMERCIAL BANKS loans charts 5 Tables: I .A I . B I . C I.D I.E I.F I.G I.H I.I SOURCES 1 Number Average size Amount Average maturity Average effective interest rate P e r c e n t a g e of loans with a floating interest rate D i s t r i b u t i o n of farm loans by e f f e c t i v e interest rate Detailed survey results R e g i o n a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of s u r v e y r e s u l t s OF 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 21 DATA: T h e s e d a t a on t h e f a r m l o a n s o f $ 1 0 0 0 or m o r e m a d e b y c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m q u a r t e r l y s a m p l e s u r v e y s c o n d u c t e d by the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m d u r i n g the first full w e e k of t h e s e c o n d m o n t h of e a c h Data o b t a i n e d f r o m the sample are expanded into national e s t i m a t e s for all c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s , w h i c h quarter. a r e s h o w n in t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e s . B e f o r e A u g u s t 1989, t h e f a r m loan s u r v e y w a s part of a b r o a d e r s u r v e y of the t e r m s of l e n d i n g 348 c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s . A s u b s e t of 250 b a n k s w a s a s k e d for i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l a b o u t 1 5 0 t y p i c a l l y r e p o r t e d at l e a s t o n e f a r m l o a n . by a s a m p l e of l e n d i n g , and S i n c e A u g u s t of 1989, t h e d a t a h a v e b e e n d r a w n f r o m a r e d e s i g n e d s a m p l e of 2 5 0 b a n k s that is no l o n g e r part of the broader survey. In t h e r e d e s i g n e d s a m p l e . b a n k s a r e s t r a t i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r v o l u m e o f f a r m l e n d i n g ; p r e v i o u s l y , t h e y had b e e n s t r a t i f i e d a c c o r d i n g to t h e v o l u m e of b u s i n e s s l o a n s . However, the sample data a l w a y s h a v e b e e n e x p a n d e d into n a t i o n a l e s t i m a t e s for all c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s , and t h e s e e s t i m a t e s n e c e s s a r i l y exhibit v a r i a b i l i t y d u e to s a m p l i n g e r r o r . T h e e s t i m a t e s are s e n s i t i v e to t h e o c c a s i o n a l a p p e a r a n c e of v e r y l a r g e l o a n s in the s a m p l e . In a d d i t i o n , t h e b r e a k d o w n o f n a t i o n a l e s t i m a t e s i n t o t h o s e f o r l a r g e b a n k s a n d s m a l l b a n k s m a y h a v e b e e n a f f e c t e d s o m e w h a t b y t h e n e w s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e s t h a t w e r e i m p l e m e n t e d in A u g u s t 1989; a p p a r e n t s h i f t s in t h e d a t a as of that d a t e s h o u l d be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n . B e g i n n i n g w i t h t h e M a y 1 9 9 7 s u r v e y , d a t a on t h e a s s e s s m e n t b y t h e l e n d e r o f t h e r i s k a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h loan, the next d a t e t h a t t h e rate of i n t e r e s t could be a d j u s t e d , w h e t h e r t h e l o a n w a s c a l l a b l e by the b a n k , and w h e t h e r t h e b o r r o w e r c o u l d p r e p a y t h e l o a n w i t h o u t p e n a l t y b e g a n t o b e c o l l e c t e d . O v e r time, the data on the l e n d e r ' s p e r c e p t i o n of the r i s k i n e s s of f a r m l o a n s s h o u l d h e l p p r o v i d e a b e t t e r p i c t u r e of t h e e f f e c t of f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e c r e d i t w o r t h i n e s s o f f a r m b o r r o w e r s a s e i t h e r f a r m f i n a n c i a l c o n d i t i o n s or t h e b r o a d e r economic environment changes. T h e n e w data on loan r e p r i c i n g d a t e s , c a l l a b i l i t y of the l o a n , and the e x i s t e n c e o f p r e p a y m e n t p e n a l t i e s s h o u l d h e l p t o r e f i n e e s t i m a t e s of t h e d u r a t i o n o f f a r m l o a n s m a d e b y commercial banks. T a b l e s I . H . I t h r o u g h l . H . 6 c o n t a i n m o s t of t h e n e w d a t a , w h i l e t h e o t h e r t a b l e s i n s e c t i o n I a t t e m p t t o s h o w e s t i m a t e s t h a t a r e c o m p a r a b l e to t h o s e t h a t h a v e b e e n p r e s e n t e d for a n u m b e r o f y e a r s . H o w e v e r , for s e v e r a l q u a r t e r s w h i l e the n e w s u r v e y was b e i n g d e s i g n e d , b a n k s that left the s u r v e y p a n e l w e r e not r e p l a c e d i m m e d i a t e l y , b e c a u s e n e w r e p l a c e m e n t b a n k s w o u l d s o o n h a v e b e e n f o r c e d to r e v i s e t h e i r n e w l y - i n s t i t u t e d reporting procedures w h e n the new survey form went into effect. As a r e s u l t , the size of the s u r v e y panel d w i n d l e d t h r o u g h e a r l y 1 9 9 7 , and w i t h the M a y 1997 s u r v e y , an u n u s u a l l y - l a r g e n u m b e r of n e w r e p o r t e r s (about 25) w e r e added . W h i l e t h i s d o e s not a f f e c t t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e M a y s u r v e y i n f o r m a t i o n , it l i k e l y i n t r o d u c e d s a m p l i n g e r r o r , e s p e c i a l l y w h e n the May survey r e s u l t s are c o m p a r e d w i t h t h o s e of p r e v i o u s q u a r t e r s . T h e f o r m a t and the survey information information contained is a c q u i r e d . in the tables are likely to change over time as more of the new SECTION I (CONTINUED) More d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s f r o m each q u a r t e r l y s u r v e y p r e v i o u s l y w e r e p u b l i s h e d in S t a t i s t i c a l R e l e a s e E . 2 A , " S u r v e y of T e r m s of B a n k L e n d i n g to F a r m e r s " . B e g i n n i n g in F e b r u a r y , 1992, the m o r e d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s a r e i n c l u d e d at t h e end o f t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e D a t a b o o k . a n d t h e E 2 . A h a s b e e n d i s c o n t i n u e d . Starting with the A u g u s t 1986 s u r v e y , f a r m l o a n s s e c u r e d by real e s t a t e are i n c l u d e d in the d a t a s h o w n in t h e t a b l e of d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s , w h e r e a s s u c h l o a n s a r e e x c l u d e d f r o m t h e t a b u l a t i o n s in T a b l e s I . A t h r o u g h I . G a n d t h e s u m m a r y charts. B e g i n n i n g in N o v e m b e r 1 9 9 1 , s e v e r a l s u r v e y s t a t i s t i c s a r e e s t i m a t e d f o r e a c h o f t e n f a r m p r o d u c t i o n r e g i o n s a s d e f i n e d by the U S D A . T h e s e s t a t i s t i c s , w h i c h a r e p r e s e n t e d in t a b l e I . I , s h o u l d b e t r e a t e d w i t h s o m e c a u t i o n . A l t h o u g h a n e f f o r t w a s m a d e t o c h o o s e a g o o d r e g i o n a l m i x of b a n k s f o r t h e p a n e l , t h e p a n e l n e v e r h a s b e e n s t r a t i f i e d by region. C o n s e q u e n t l y , the s u r v e y r e s u l t s are less precise for each region than for the t o t a l s for the n a t i o n . RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: In t h e A u g u s t 1 9 9 8 s u r v e y , t h e e s t i m a t e d n u m b e r o f n o n - r e a l - e s t a t e f a r m e s t i m a t e of one year e a r l i e r , w i t h the l a r g e s t d e c l i n e a m o n g t h e s e year n u m b e r of loans for f e e d e r l i v e s t o c k . T h e a v e r a g e s i z e of l o a n s f e l l as and t h e e s t i m a t e d t o t a l v o l u m e o f l e n d i n g f e l l to t h e l o w e s t l e v e l s i n c e loans made by b a n k s was below the o v e r - y e a r c o m p a r i s o n s a p p e a r i n g in t h e w e l l , e s p e c i a l l y for l i v e s t o c k loans, the latter 1980s. In t h e A u g u s t s u r v e y , t h e a v e r a g e m a t u r i t y o f f a r m n o n - r e a l - e s t a t e l o a n s w a s a b o u t 9 - 1 / 2 m o n t h s , t o w a r d s t h e m i d d l e of the r a n g e s e e n for the past s e v e r a l y e a r s . T h e a v e r a g e e f f e c t i v e rate of i n t e r e s t on n o n - r e a l e s t a t e f a r m l o a n s w a s 9 p e r c e n t in t h e A u g u s t s u r v e y , d o w n 20 b a s i s p o i n t s f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s q u a r t e r . The p e r c e n t a g e o f l o a n s t h a t w e r e m a d e w i t h a r a t e o f i n t e r e s t t h a t f l o a t s w a s a b o u t 55 p e r c e n t i n A u g u s t , a n d t h e m o v e m e n t t o w a r d s f i x e d - r a t e a r r a n g e m e n t s w a s a p p a r e n t f o r m o s t l o a n s i z e s a n d at b o t h l a r g e a n d s m a l l banks. T h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e r e p r i c i n g i n t e r v a l (line 4 of T a b l e s I.H.I t h r o u g h I . H . 6 ) f e l l to a b o u t 6 m o n t h s , w i t h the i n t e r v a l n o t i c e a b l y l o n g e r for l o a n s of $ 5 0 t h o u s a n d to $250 t h o u s a n d . The weighted - average maturity s l i p p e d a s w e l l , a n d a g a i n , m e d i u m - s i z e d l o a n s s e e m e d to c a r r y l o n g e r m a t u r i t i e s . T h e p e r c e n t a g e of the v o l u m e o f l o a n s t o p u r c h a s e or i m p r o v e f a r m r e a l e s t a t e ( l i n e 2 3 ) r e t r a c e d m o s t o f t h e r u n u p s e e n i n t h e p r e v i o u s s u r v e y , p e r h a p s r e f l e c t i n g h e i g h t e n e d c o n c e r n s in r e c e n t m o n t h s a b o u t l o n g e r - r u n f a r m p r o f i t a b i l i t y . T h e p e r c e n t a g e o f l o a n s t h a t w e r e c a l l a b l e b y t h e b a n k ( l i n e 17) and t h e p e r c e n t a g e t h a t c o u l d b e p r e p a i d The weighted average risk w i t h o u t a p e n a l t y (line 18), b o t h fell b a c k s h a r p l y , e s p e c i a l l y for l a r g e l o a n s . r a t i n g ( l i n e 5 ) r o s e i n t h e A u g u s t s u r v e y , w i t h t h e l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e s in p e r c e i v e d r i s k i n e s s a p p a r e n t f o r larger loans. R e l a t i v e to the M a y s u r v e y , b a n k e r s r e q u i r e d c o n s i d e r a b l y l e s s c o l l a t e r a l for f a r m l o a n s (the t o t a l p e r c e n t a g e of l o a n s t h a t a r e s e c u r e d is o b t a i n e d b y s u m m i n g l i n e s 25 a n d 2 6 ) . W h e n b r o k e n o u t b y t h e r i s k i n e s s of t h e l o a n ( T a b l e s I . H . 4 t h r o u g h I . H . 6 ) , a b o u t 6 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e e s t i m a t e d v o l u m e o f l o a n s w a s r a t e d e i t h e r " m o d e r a t e " or " a c c e p t a b l e " , r o u g h l y t h e s a m e p r o p o r t i o n o f l o a n s t h a t received t h e s e r a n k i n g s in t h e p r e v i o u s s u r v e y . L o a n s rated as " m o d e r a t e " r i s k c a r r i e d t h e l o w e s t r a t e of i n t e r e s t , and c o l l a t e r a l r e q u i r e m e n t s w h e r e l o w e s t for l o a n s f a l l i n g in the " a c c e p t a b l e " c a t e g o r y - - l o a n s e i t h e r h i g h e r or l o w e r o n t h e r i s k s c a l e w e r e m o r e l i k e l y t o b e s e c u r e d . By f a r m p r o d u c t i o n r e g i o n , c h a n g e s in t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e r a t e s of i n t e r e s t c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e M a y s u r v e y w e r e very mixed. T h e r e g i o n s s h o w i n g t h e l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e s w e r e the N o r t h e a s t and A p p a l a c h i a n s , w h i c h r e c o r d e d d e c l i n e s of 100 and 120 b a s i s p o i n t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . E s t i m a t e d r a t e s r o s e 30 b a s i s p o i n t s i n t h e C o r n b e l t . LD Chart 1 Results from the Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers Millions, Annual rate 5.0 Number of non-real-estate farm loans 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 — Four quarter moving average 1.5 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Thousands of dollars 1.0 45 Average size of non-real-estate farm loans 40 35 30 — Four quarter moving average 25 20 15 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Billions of dollars. Annual rate Amount of non-real-estate farm loans 10 130 120 110 100 - Four quarter moving average 40 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Chart 2 Results from the Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers Months Average maturity of non-real-estate farm loans - Four quarter moving average 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Percent 20 18 Average effective interest rate on non-real-estate farm loans 16 14 12 10 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Percent 100 Share of farm loans with a floating interest rate 90 80 70 60 50 40 - Four quarter moving average 30 20 10 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 0 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.A NUMBER OF LOANS MADE (MILLIONS) FEEDER LIVESTOCK ALL LOANS OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES BY SIZE OF BANK BY SIZE OF LOAN ($ 1,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT ' OTHER 1 to 9 10 to 24 1. 71 1. 57 1. 42 1. 67 1. 70 1. 66 ,67 1. 1. 65 ,55 1. 1. .45 .33 1, 1. .32 0. 46 0. 46 0. 43 0. 52 0. 49 0. 51 0. 54 0. 56 0. 51 0. 57 0. 48 0. 50 25 to 99 100 and over LARGE OTHER | 0.20 0. 20 0. 23 0. 36 0.44 0.50 0. 51 0. 55 0. ,54 0. 66 , ,53 0. 0. .46 2 .34 2 .18 1. 99 2 .23 2 .20 2. 10 2 .18 2 .15 1. 98 ,83 1. 1 .69 1, .82 ANNUAL NUMBER OF LOANS MADE 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 , 1994 1995, 1996 1997 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2. 55 2 38 2. 21 2 60 2 63 .60 2. 2. 69 .70 2. .53 2. .49 2. .22 2. .27 2. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 o. 30 o 39 o 29 o 30 o 32 ,35 o. 0. ,35 .36 0. ,28 0. .26 0, . 0, 18 .19 o, 0. 17 0. 13 0. 11 0. 20 0. 24 0. 23 0. 25 0. 27 0. 23 0. 19 0. 17 0. 20 1. 66 1 54 1. 45 1 73 1 69 1. 64 1. 67 .62 1. 1. .56 1. ,48 .38 1, .40 1. 0. 17 0. 14 0. 14 0. 16 0. 19 0. 17 0. 18 0. 18 0. 18 ,17 0. 0. 14 , 0. .15 0. 24 0. 19 0. ,21 ,20 0. 0. ,19 0. ,21 0. ,24 0. ,27 .27 0, .39 0. .36 0, .33 0. 0. 29 0. 27 0. 28 0. 31 0. 35 0. 32 0. 37 0. 37 ,35 0. 0. ,36 0 ,31 . , 0. 34 0. 08 0. 08 0. 07 0. 09 0. 09 0. 10 0. 11 0. 12 0. 12 0. 12 0. 11 0. 11 | 1 1 1 | | 1 1 j | 1 NUMBER OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1996 Q3 . . . Q4... 1 1 2 .24 1 .95 1 | o . 16 0.25 0. .11 0. .17 1 .45 1 .08 0 .15 0 .11 0 .37 0 .34 1 .38 1 . 18 0. 49 0. 41 0 .28 0 .25 0. ,09 , 0, 10 1 | 0 .63 0. 37 1 .62 1 .58 1997 Ql. . . Q2... Q3... 04... 1 2 . 19 2 .65 2 .21 2.05 1 o .20 0 . 17 0 .15 o .23 0, .24 0 .22 0 .14 0 .21 1 . 13 1 .72 1 .53 1 .23 0 . 18 0 . 14 0 . 14 0 .15 0 .46 0 .40 0 .23 0 .22 1 .18 1 .62 1 .34 1 .15 ,49 0. ,57 0. ,47 0. .45 0. 0 .37 0 .37 0 .31 0 .33 0 . 15 0 .09 0 .09 0 . 12 | | 1 | 0.49 0.51 0 .43 0.38 1 .70 2 . 14 1 .77 1 .66 1998 Ql... Q2 . . . Q3... 1 2 .08 .51 2 . 12 1 o . 19 0 .12 o .10 0 .20 0 .22 0 .16 1 .29 1 .72 1 .50 0 .18 0 .22 0 . 15 0 .22 0 .24 0 .20 1 .07 1 .44 1 .36 .47 0, 0. .58 0, .41 0 . 38 0 .37 0 .26 0 . 16 0 . 12 0 .09 | | | 0. 38 0.47 0.38 1 .70 2 .04 1 .74 | 1 2 1 1 7 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.B AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE (THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 to 9 OTHER 10 to 24 25 to 99 BY SIZE OF BANK 100 and over LARGE OTHER ANNUAL AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE 1986 | 19 0 | 35 0 2 5 .8 14 0 13 . .6 32 .9 1 3 .5 14,.9 44 , .9 2 8 0 ,.4 62 .0 15 .3 1987 | 20 8 | 33 8 26 .3 14 6 16 .1 44 .6 j 3 .6 14,.7 46,.5 3 2 0 ,.4 8 5 .5 14 .9 1988 | 21 8 | 34 1 4 0 .6 16 7 13,,9 34 .7 1989 | 19 9 | 42 7 14 1 12,, 1 1990 | 28 4 | 69 7 29 .5 22 7 15 7 11..9 32 .2 94 .3 1991 | | j 61,.0 25 .2 15..6 15,,1 1992 31, .9 31,.2 68,.2 26 .9 ,7 14 . 15.,9 79,.7 23 . 1 27 .6 26 .7 15. 2 16., 3 13 . ,9 60,.3 49,.7 18,.5 59,,0 42 , 3 . 24 .2 26 .0 2 6 .,0 16., 8 15.,6 17 , ,2 17 , 8 1993 1 j 1994 | 1995 1996 1997 34 . 3 , j j | 33 .9 , . 33, 8 | | .2 39, 31 .4 , j j j AVERAGE 1996 1997 03... 04... | j 33 • 3 . 36 .2 1 j SIZE OF 116,,7 LOANS MADE DURING FIRST 17.,5 FULL WEEK 31,. 3 2 5 .6 23 . 5 15,, 8 16., 2 19 , ,0 15,. 5 | 38 .7 24,.3 | j 50.,7 28 . 1 24 . .3 18. 5 j 27,.6 22 .2 13..6 17. 6 03... j 28,.3 j 51..9 23 .0 15..5 17.,0 04... 1998 01... 02... j 36,• 1 i 3 9 ..5 29 .6 16.,1 01. . . | j j 37, .9 28,.0 25,• 6 | j 37.,7 29 .6 4 3 .,4 2 3 ..3 17..2 1 30.,4 2 1 .0 17 .9 02... 03... .4 14 . 3,.7 j 14..8 4 5 .,2 3 2 0 .,4 7 0 .0 16,.3 3 .6 , 14.,7 4 5 .,9 2 7 2 .,1 53 .7 14 , .4 j 3,.6 14.,8 3,.6 14.,9 5 3 9 .,9 100,.7 107,.0 13,.9 j 4 6 ., 1 4 6 .,6 4 8 7 .,7 1 2 9 .3 1 0 8 .7 3,.7 14.,8 45. 9 468. 2 97,.0 15..8 112,.0 1 2 3 .6 j 3,.7 14. 9 14 . ,6 490. 3 4 8 0 ,,7 15,.8 3 .7 , 4 6 ., 1 4 7 .,0 1 0 6 ,.0 j 93 .6 95 .2 .2 97 , j 3 .7 . 3 .7 , 3 .8 14.,7 15.,0 14 . ,9 44 . .9 45. 2 4 5 ., 8 4 5 1 ., 3 545, 9 3 8 5 ., 3 101 , .3 84 .0 15,.4 15,.7 1 1 5 ..0 92 , .0 15 ,4 16,, 3 554 , 3 467 , 7 89 . 6 119,. 1 11 .4 16 , 9 OF SECOND j j MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL 13,.9 RATE 76 .4 118 . 1 | j 3 . 7 , , 3 .9 14.,5 15.,5 4 5 .,8 4 5 ., 5 82 , 1 . 73 .2 1 j 3 .7 , 14 .7 4 8 .,0 371. 9 3,.7 14. 9 45. 6 3 5 7 .,7 95,,0 67 , ,9 91 . 7 ,4 22 , 13. 9 j 3,.7 14 .4 4 5 ., 1 4 1 9 ., 3 17.,8 1 0 6 .6 160,.5 j 3,.9 15.,4 44. 2 3 9 8 ., 5 1 2 0 ..5 16,, 5 39.,6 130,.7 1 3 .8 , 15., 1 4 5 .,8 320. 2 1 0 0 ,.3 2 4 ,2 24 . ,5 20. 9 1 0 7 .4 115,.8 14.,4 14. 6 4 6 .,6 4 4 .,0 3 3 5 .,7 3 6 6 .,8 80.,3 85.,7 16.,0 j 3,.7 3,.5 12 , .9 12. 5 ESTIMATES FROM THE T A B L E I.C QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE A M O U N T OF LOANS M A D E LOANS TO FARMERS (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) BY SIZE OF BY PURPOSE OF OTHER FEEDER LIVESTOCK ALL LOANS OTHER LIVESTOCK CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES ANNUAL AMOUNT OF LOAN LOAN BY SIZE OF BANK ($1,000s) FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 10 1 to 9 OTHER 25 to 99 to 24 100 and over LARGE LOANS MADE 1 9 8 6 | 48 .5 10,.4 4,.5 2 3 ..2 2,.4 8,.0 1 6 .0 6,.9 1 3 ,. 2 2 2 ..3 1987 | 4 9 ,.6 13,.2 3.,4 2 2 .. 5 2,.3 8,.3 | 5 .. 7 6,.8 12,.6 2 4 .,5 1 9 8 8 4 8 ..2 10..0 4..6 2 4 ..3 1 ,. 9 7 ,4 . 5.. 2 6..4 1 2 ,. 9 5 1 ..6 12..9 6..0 2 4 ., 3 2 .0 6,.4 6,. 1 7 ,7 . 14,.4 2 3 ,. 4 1 9 9 0 7 4 ,.7 22..0 5..5 2 6 .,6 2 .3 18,.3 6,. 1 7..3 15,.9 8 2 ,. 8 21,.4 5,. 8 2 5 ..5 2,.5 2 7 ,.6 6,. 1 . 7 ,6 15,. 1 54,.0 1 9 9 6 | 1997 6..7 24 , 6 2 ,9 . 28,.7 6,.2 2 4 ,. 7 2 .5 8 5 ,.7 16,.8 6,.4 25,.4 1 2 ,. 7 5,.2 2 7 ,.3 87 1995 2 3 ,. 6 8 4 ,. 1 j 1994 83 .7 , 92 , 6 . | 1993 .3 10,.6 4,.0 35,,9 7 1 ,.4 8,.0 5,.3 23 . 6 A M O U N T OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST 35. 3 2 .,5 15.,9 j 12. 6 1 7 ., 1 4 5 ,.3 1 9 9 1 | 2 3 .. 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 2 OTHER . 32 ,3 19,.6 32 .0 44 | .2 5 3 ,. 7 9 30 .5 29 . 1 2 6 ..0 | 6 ,. 2 8..0 . 16 , 8 52 . 8 | 4 9 ,.4 34 . 3 30 .6 1 6 . 1 8,.3 17 , 1 . 6 1 , 0 . j 58,. 8 33 .8 3 .2 33 , 9 . | 5 .8 7..4 16,.5 56,.0 55 . 2 ,7 36,. 1 | 5 .4 8.,3 16 54 ,4 . 5 5 ,.3 28 .8 2 .4 3 4 ..5 7 , 1 . 1 3 ,. 9 6 1 ,.3 | 6 1 ,,2 26 . 1 3 1 ..9 1 j .0 . 2 ,7 5,.0 7 ,4 . 15,.8 43 | 4 1 ,. 9 29 .6 FULL WEEK OF . 5 SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL .0 ,. 3 . 1 30 .6 RATE 0 3 . . . 1 7 4 ., 7 2 1 18.,6 2.,8 2 2 . 6 2,.4 2 8 .,3 1 5 .. 1 7 ., 1 1 3 .,0 4 9 . 5 | 5 6 . 3 18.,5 0 4 . . . 1996 j 7 0 . ,77 j 8.,0 3. 9 1 7 . 2 2 . 1 3 9 .,6 j 4..7 6. 4 1 1 . 6 4 8 . 1 j 4 4 . 0 2 6 .,7 o i . . . | 8 4 ,. 9 2 | 10..1 6.,7 2 7 ., 4 3,.2 3 7 ..5 1 4 .4 7 .3 1 7 ,,8 5 5 ..5 | 4 6 .,8 3 8 ..2 Q 2 . . . 6 4 .. 4 4 j 4..6 5..0 2 3 ..3 2 ,4 . 2 9 ,.0 j 6,. 1 8..5 16,.9 3 3 .. 0 | 3 4 .,7 29,.7 Q 3 . . . 1997 6 2 ,. 4 9 8,. 0 3,.3 23 . 8 2 .4 2 4 ,.9 | 5 .0 6,.8 13 , 9 . 3 6 ,.8 j 3 9 ..6 22 .9 | 9,. 2 6,.3 19,.7 2 .7 36 .0 | 4 .4 7 ,0 . 14 47 , 9 . | 46 .4 27 .5 7 8 . 8 0 | 7 , 1 . 5 .9 30 .0 7 . 1 28 .6 | 4 1 .2 . 3 0 j 5 .3 4 .6 29 , 5 . 5 .4 25 .6 54 . 2 9 | 3 . 1 2 .9 2 1 .6 3 .2 23 0 4 . . . 1 9 9 8 | Q l . 1 . . 7 0 Q 2 . . . Q 3 . . . 73 | .83 , .5 .5 j 4 . 1 7 ,0 . 17 .6 50 . 1 | 3 7 ,. 7 5 .4 8 .4 17 .4 39 .2 1 37 .7 32 .6 4 .8 6 .0 11 . 5 32 .0 | 32 .5 2 1 . 8 9 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.D A V E R A G E MATURITY OF LOANS MADE (MONTHS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 to 9 OTHER 10 to 24 25 to 99 BY SIZE OF BANK 100 and over LARGE OTHER 7. 1 . 8. .3 7. .7 7 .1 . 4, .9 5. .8 7. .2 7 .4 , 7. .2 8. .2 7. .3 8. .8 5, 5 . 5. ,9 8. 1 . . 7 .8 4.7 5, .2 6. .4 6. .4 5. .8 , 7 .3 6. .4 7 .6 . 8. 8 . , 9. 3 8. .8 8. .2 10. .2 .6 9. 10. 1 , 10. .4 12. ,6 11. .4 12. ,3 12. .8 ANNUAL A V E R A G E MATURITY 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | I 1 1 .0 .4 8 .7 8 . 1 7 .5 7 .3 8 .9 9 .2 10, .3 9 .9 8 .5 9 .9 8 8 5. .8 5. .5 6. ,4 6. ,8 6. ,0 ,7 6. 6. 1 , 7. .3 7. ,6 .7 8, 7. .8 9. 1 , 6 .3 7, ,7 .7 4, 7 .4 , 8, .8 8, .5 9 .5 9, .6 9 .8 9 .9 11,.3 11. .0 , 7. 6 7. 6 , 8, .5 7, .2 7, .5 7, .2 8 .6 8 .3 8 .6 8 .5 7, .6 10,,7 21.,0 22 ,8 19. 8 18.,7 21.,9 24 . ,6 20.. 1 30.,4 36.,6 26.,5 29.,4 30.,6 8. ,8 12 . 1 10. .9 ,8 11. 6. ,4 5. ,3 9, ,4 9. .4 9, .4 10. .0 9. ,2 7 ,4 , 1 | I | | | 6 .8 7, .5 7 .1 • 7 .4 , 7 .4 , 7 .7 8. .3 8. .5 8. .6 9. .0 8, .6 8, .8 8, ,0 8. 1 . ,2 9. 8. ,3 .2 9. 8. ,3 9. .7 10. .0 11..6 10..8 10.,5 11..6 9, ,8 .3 9. 10. .2 ,3 9. 11. ,9 10. .6 11. 1 , 11. .1 13. .5 12. .1 12. ,1 12. .4 MATURITY OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1996 03... Q4 . . . 1 | 1997 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... 1 | | | 1998 oi... 02... 03... | | 1 7 .8 .4 5.2 6.4 10,.8 10. .9 10,.0 9, ,2 28,.0 28,.5 5 .3 7 .0 , 1 1 11 .7 11 .0 8 .8 7 .9 14.6 7.2 5.3 7.4 10. ,0 13,.5 9. .4 11. 1 . 12. 2 13. 6 . 9. .5 6. ,7 34 32 23 31 8, .5 6, .8 7 .8 , 6. 3 1 1 | | 10. .6 10. .4 9 .6 8. 1 7.8 7.2 12. 1 , 7. ,5 13. 1 , 9. ,9 10.,4 9. 9 23 , .9 33 . 1 , 21.,7 8 .2 6, .6 7 .6 , 1 1 1 8 . 1 , 1 . .2 , .8 .2 . • 1 9, .1 9. .4 11,.2 11,.1 .7 6. 7. ,6 6. 1 6 .4 12, 5 , 11. 1 . ,5 9. ,5 9. 8, ,4 7, ,5 .8 11. .6 12. 10. .7 11,.0 13,.4 14 , .1 10,.9 10,.6 11. .3 9. 1 , 7. .8 6. .6 9. 1 6 .6 7. 6 , .8 6, 14 , .2 15,.5 10,.8 9, ,6 , 9. 1 .8 9. 8 ,3 - 13. 1 , 11. .3 11. .5 13,,2 13,.8 11. .0 9. ,5 8. 8 9. 0 7 .4 , 6, .8 7 .2 , 13,.4 14 , ,5 13 . ,2 8 7 • #. # # # e e # • . # # ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I . E AVERAGE EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATE ON LOANS MADE BY SIZE OF L O A N ($1, 000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 to 9 OTHER 10 to 24 BY S I Z E OF B A N K 25 to 99 100 and over 11,. 8 11,. 1 11,.4 12,.7 12,. 1 10,.7 8, .8 8, 3 . 8, .6 10,.3 9 .8 9, .9 10. 8 9. 9 10. 8 12 .2 10. 9 9. 2 7. 1 , 6. 9 7. 3 9. 0 7 .8 8. 8 | | j j j j LARGE OTHER 1 1 1 1 1 1 9. 6 9, .2 10, .2 12, 1 . 10, .9 9 .0 6 .8 6 .7 .2 7, .0 9, 1 .8 8 .7 , 12 . 1 11.. 3 11. 6 12. 7 12 .3 11.. 3 9. 4 , 8. 7 8. 8 10.. 4 10. 0 10.,0 7. ,9 8. 2 1 | , 8, 1 8, .0 10.,2 9. 9 .7 .0 .0 . 8 8. 8 , 8. 6 , 8. 9 , 8. 7 , | | 8. 6 8 .6 8 .9 8. 6 9. , 10,, 10,, 10,. 9. 8 9 .8 9 .7 8, 6 , 8, 6 , 8, .4 | 8 .2 | 8 . 5 9 ,, 9 1 8. 9 ,. 9 A N N U A L A V E R A G E INTEREST R A T E 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 , 1993 , 1994 1995 1996 1997 | 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 io 11 12 11 5 6 2 5 4 ,8 9. .8 7. . 7. 5 .8 7, 9 .5 • .4 8. ,2 9, | | 1 1 | j 1 | 1 j | 1 11 1 10 7 io 9 12 3 11 5 10. .2 .2 8. 8, ,0 ,3 8, 10, 1 , 8. .8 .6 9. 11 9 10 2 11 9 12 4 12 0 11,.0 8, .6 8, 1 . 8, .0 10,.2 ,5 9, ,8 9, 11 5 10 8 11 2 12 6 11 7 10.,4 8. .8 8. 1 , 8. ,4 10..0 , 8. 6 9. .9 12 .2 11. 5 11. 7 12 .8 12. 3 11. 3 9. 3 8. 7 8. 6 10. 3 9. 7 9. 8 11..2 9, .5 10,.7 12,.3 10,.7 .6 8, 6, .3 6, .2 7, .0 8, 8 • .0 8, 8. 5 | | j | j j j j 12..4 11..6 11..7 12.,8 . 12 , 5 11..5 .7 9, 9, .0 9, 1 . 10,. 6 10,.2 10,.2 12..0 11,.3 11..6 12..7 12,.4 11,.2 9 .3 .7 8, 8, .8 10,.5 10,.1 10,.0 A V E R A G E R A T E ON L O A N S M A D E DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF S E C O N D MONTH OF Q U A R T E R , A N N U A L R A T E 1996 03... 04... | 1 8. ,6 ,7 8. 1 1 ,0 8. ,5 9, 9, .6 ,6 9, | j | j .2 9. 9. .7 .7 9, 9 ,7 9 ,6 10,.0 10,,0 9, 6 1 | 9 .6 9. 6 | 9 ,, 7 9. 9 9 .9 9 .7 1997 oi... Q2.. . 03... 04... 1 j 1 1 9, 1 9. 3 . .4 9. . 9. 2 1998 Ql. . . Q2... 03.. . 1 | i 9. 1 9, 2 9 .0 ,7 9. .8 9. 9. 9 9. 3 7, .9 8, .0 | | 10,.2 10,. 1 10,.1 10,. 1 ,8 9. 10..0 10..0 9. 7 9. 9 9. 8 8, .5 8. 5 .5 8, 8 •5 | j j 10.. 1 10,.2 10 .2 10 .2 9, .8 10 . 1 10 . 1 10 .0 8 .0 8. 3 8• 3 | 10 .2 10 . 1 10 . 1 10 .0 9 .9 10 .1 9 ., 9 9, .8 9. 9 9. 3 9 ,. 7 9 .5 9. 6 9. 7 1 j | 9 .8 9 .7 9 10 10 9 1 | 5 8 1 1 1 9 . 9 , 11 12 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.F PERCENTAGE OF LOANS MADE WITH A FLOATING INTEREST RATE ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES BY SIZE OF BANK BY SIZE OF LOAN ( $1,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 10 25 to to 9 24 99 1 to OTHER 100 and over LARGE OTHER ANNUAL PERCENTAGE OF LOANS MADE , 53 .4 6 0 ,.5 3 4 .,8 5 7 ..2 30..9 5 0 ..6 | 4 0 . 6 4 1 ..8 4 8 . 2 63 .. 7 | 7 1 . 9 47 . 0 1987 5 9 .,5 51..6 6 9 ..6 6 2 .. 1 55.,5 6 2 .. 1 | 4 8 . 5 4 5 .,6 5 4 . 4 6 8 ., 5 j 7 7 . 4 9 . 1 9 8 8 6 1 .,4 65 .3 3 9 .,5 6 3 ., 8 54.,9 6 3 .. 2 | 4 9 . 3 5 1 .,5 6 0 . 8 6 7 .,0 | 7 9 ., 1 52 . 6 1 9 8 6 1 6 9 1 9 8 9 6 1 ..0 7 1 ..4 4 0 ..0 5 9 ..7 32,.9 7 3 .. 6 | 5 0 . 4 4 9 ..6 5 8 .,5 6 9 .. 1 j 83 . 6 47 . 2 1 9 9 0 6 5 ..2 7 6 .8 6 1 ..6 6 8 ,.3 40,.0 51,.2 1 5 3 .. 6 59..2 6 6 ..0 6 7 ,. 5 | 6 9 ..4 5 9 . ,3 1 9 9 1 6 5 .. 1 81..5 6 9 ..3 6 8 ,.8 40,.6 50,.3 | 5 2 ..0 59,.0 6 4 ..0 6 7 ,. 8 | 7 0 .. 0 56,.1 1 9 9 2 7 1 ..7 78 .5 63 . 5 6 6 ,.3 47 .8 7 5 ,.3 1 5 7 ..3 59,. 1 6 1 ,.2 7 8 ,.6 | 82 .9 , 55 1993 7 6 .7 84 .6 7 0 ,.0 7 0 ,.3 48 .2 7 8 . 1 | 6 0 .. 1 61,.0 6 4 ,. 5 83 , 9 . j 86 .9 58 .9 .5 1994 75 , 1 82 .9 7 4 ,.3 72 ,3 . 5 1 .6 75 .7 j 58,.6 59,.8 7 0 ,.4 80 .2 | 83 .7 59 .7 1995 73 , 8 . 83 .9 7 5 .9 73 .0 53 . 1 72 .2 j 61,.7 63 , 9 . 73 , 6 . 76 .7 | 79 .9 62 . 3 1996 63 . 1 58 . 1 7 1 .2 67 .3 32 .9 6 1 .4 | 60 .6 6 1 .5 69 . 1 62 .2 j 65 .4 57 .9 1997 65 .8 66 .4 73 67 .8 49 .9 64 .3 | 60 . 1 58 .0 68 .0 67 .0 1 71 .4 57 , 9 . .2 AVERAGE PERCENTAGE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER Q3 . . . 1 5 5 . 3 3 4 . 8 7 6 . 5 3 2 . 2 5 6 .,5 | 6 2 . 7 6 3 . 3 7 3 .,0 4 8 . 7 1 5 4 . 8 5 6 . 9 Q 4 . . . j 6 4 . ,8 5 7 . 0 7 5 .,1 7 1 . ,0 3 1 . 2 6 4 .,4 j 5 8 . 3 5 6 . 2 6 6 ..7 6 6 . 1 | 7 1 . 1 5 4 . 3 Q l . 1 7 4 3 7 0 . 7 1 ..2 7 2 ..6 7 5 ..0 6 7 ,.3 52.,0 7 4 ,.7 1 5 9 ., 8 5 6 ..3 6 9 ,.2 ,. 7 | 8 1 .,3 5 8 ..9 Q2 . . . 7 5 ,.6 6 4 ' .. 6 6 7 ,. 1 6 1 ,.9 45..1 92 .4 j 60., 1 56,.3 67 .7 8 7 ,. 4 j 8 9 ..9 5 8 ,. 8 Q3 . . . 1 9 9 7 57 .2 7 2 ,.2 69 .9 69 .7 46,.9 39 .8 1 5 9 ,. 2 62 .3 62 .4 54 , 0 . | 6 0 ,.3 51,.9 58 .5 55,.4 7 8 .0 73 .4 54 .5 48 .0 j 61,.6 57 .7 72 .2 54 .2 1 5 7 ,. 2 60 .6 .2 | .6 59 . 1 . . Q 4 . . . 1 9 9 8 | Ql... 1 Q3 . . . 1 56 .6 59 .4 56 .6 7 0 58 . 1 4 1 .2 54 .6 Q2 . . . 76 .2 60 . 1 68 . 1 48 .2 54 .7 5 1 .6 54 .2 67 . 1 28 .3 47 .4 1 6 0 ,. 5 56 .7 67 .0 52 | 5 3 ,. 9 58 .0 34 .9 50 .5 6 1 .9 5 1 .7 1 57 .6 5 1 . 1 55 .7 57 .7 59 .3 52 .4 j 6 1 .9 44 . 1 # #. # # Table I.G Effective interest rate (percent) All Loans • • e e • • # PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF NON-REAL-ESTATE FARM LOANS M A D E BY BANKS. 1 BY EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATE Memo: Perecentage Distribution of Number of Loans, August 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 May 98 Aug 98 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 - 4 - 11 4 4 - 11 13 14 23 Under 5 percent - - - 5.0 to 5.9 - - - 1 6.0 to 6.9 - - - - - * - * - - * * * * * 5 15 5 8 1 1 1 2 7.0 to 7.9 1 - - 30 18 22 21 15 18 3 10 8.0 to 8.9 10 - - 17 23 18 22 8 25 33 30 17 16 17 16 20 30 22 33 29 39 39 4 30 15 17 16 28 27 10 4 8 6 11 12 2 2 * * * * * * 9.0 to 9.9 20 - 1 9 10.0 to 10.9 . . . 27 5 8 22 10 20 11.0 to 11.9 . . . 23 8 33 8 7 5 2 1 1 * 12.0 to 12.9 . . . 15 13.0 to 1 3 . 9 . . . 3 14.0 to 14.9 . . . 39 39 2 * 1 1 2 * 1 * * * * * 34 14 - - - - 8 5 - - - 15.0 to 15.9 . . . - 4 - - - - - - 16.0 to 16.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - 17.0 to 1 7 . 9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - 18.0 to 18.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 * - * - - - * - * * * - 19.0 to 19.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - 20.0 to 20.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - 21.0 to 2 1 . 9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - 22.0 to 22.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - 23.0 to 23.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - 24.0 to 24.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - — - 25.0 and over. . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1. Percentage distribution of the estimated total dollar amount of non-real-estate farm loans of $1,000 or more made by insured commercial banks during the week covered by the survey, which is the first full business week of the month specified. Data are estimates from the Federal Reserve survey of terms of bank lending to farmers. Percentages may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. * indicates less than .5 percent. 13 TABLE I.H.I SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING AUGUST 3-7, 1998 Loans to farmers Size class of loans all sizes $1-9 (thousands) $10-24 $25-49 $50-99 $100-249 $250 and over 95,241 26,969 8, 59 . 4, 34 . 2 .61 , 121,722 8,323 11 .57 6 .39 2 .67 111,778 3,423 ,35 14 . 5. ,95 .64 2. 277 135, ; 128 2,: 14 .88 9 .87 2 .94 182,605 1,292 20 .51 10 .84 2 .90 522,346 695 10 .36 4 .05 3 .44 9. .06 0, ,15 10,. 15 0, .03 10 .10 0 .04 .86 9, 0, .10 9 .49 0 .15 9 .16 0 .08 8 .31 0 .20 9, ,93 8. .30 10,.72 9, .65 10 .74 9 .49 10. .52 9. .24 9 .99 8 .84 9 .81 8 .60 9 .11 7 .74 9, .74 9, .69 9, .63 .53 9, 8. .90 8, .29 10,. 14 10,.62 10, 13 . 10,.18 10,.26 9, .82 10 .27 10 .45 10 .15 10 .18 9 .03 9 .61 ,76 9. 10,,05 10,,15 9. .31 9, .02 9, .45 9 .30 9 .51 9 .48 9 .69 9 .74 9 .35 9 .37 8 .82 9 .32 9 .06 9 .02 9 .05 9 .91 9 . 13 8 .92 9 .35 8 .62 8 .00 52,.67 79,.97 13,,97 1, .65 55,. 13 66,.74 28,. 67 1, .41 56 . 81 62 .87 31 .37 1 .92 64,.23 69..10 26.,69 0. ,71 50 .80 59 .93 19 .80 3 .34 62 .46 78 .42 12 .44 2 .07 45 .83 94 .41 3 .54 1 .25 5, .21 .78 4, 38,.28 7, .01 5, 14 . 39,.58 3, .21 7 .05 , 76 .02 6, 57 . .31 1, 5, .83 6 .40 9 . 12 61 .51 9 .11 2 .53 11 .33 11,.43 7 .45 , 51,.41 8. .20 4 .98 . 16,.53 5 .86 6 .66 49 .78 16 .59 3 .80 17 .31 7 .27 8 .06 40 .06 13 .05 7 .86 23 .69 3 .07 1 . 14 19 .59 1 .75 5 .88 68 .57 10,.99 55,.80 3 . 64 , 86,.46 6 .28 84 .59 8, 18 . 79,.11 12 .80 73 .98 13 .29 73 .56 12 .76 27 .61 ALL BANKS 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) 1 maturity (months) repricing interval risk rating 3 (months) 2 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 4 7 Standard error 5 8 Interquartile R a n g e 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 1,168,968 42,831 ,81 12 . 6, ,21 3, 10 , TABLE I.H.2 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING AUGUST 3-7, 1998 Loans to farmers Size class of loans all sizes (thousands) $1-9 $10-24 $25-49 $50-99 $100-249 $250 and over 791,920 16,382 10 .27 2 .44 3 .46 33,110 8,941 7 .65 , 2 .55 3 .00 , 48, 561 ( 336 3,: 8 .59 2 .42 3 .03 53,012 1,587 11 .00 4 . 12 3 .25 75,354 1,156 11. ,44 ,90 4. 3. ,21 124,435 854 18 .80 5 .79 3 . 37 8 .81 0 .16 10 .15 0 .08 9 .98 0 .10 9 .80 0 .12 .49 9. ,13 0. 9 .20 0 .09 8.25 0.20 9 .65 8 .17 10 .78 9 .52 10 .68 9 .31 10 .47 9 .11 9. ,99 8, .84 9 .84 8 .77 8.87 7.42 9 .41 9 .12 9 .52 9 .36 9 .04 8 .29 9 .88 10 .00 10 .22 10 . 35 9 .98 9 .73 9 .86 9 .77 10 . 13 10 . 04 9 .58 9 .57 9 .67 9 .28 10 . 14 9 .22 7 .73 9 .34 9. .29 9, .08 ,65 9. 9 . 12 9, .49 9, .41 8 .99 8 .90 9 .40 9 .23 9 .35 9 .05 9.13 8.94 9.11 8.62 8.04 61 .16 92 .31 12 .30 1 .48 73 .85 89 .58 32 .00 0 .23 77 . 32 87 .50 35 .27 1 .45 78 .64 83 .51 26 .52 1 .49 70,.62 82 .41 25 .67 3, .00 75 .46 84 . 37 14 .24 1 . 12 51. 05 97.84 4 . 04 1.42 2 .19 3 .42 34 .39 2 .55 2 . 10 39 .58 4 .26 3 .30 77 .84 3 . 13 0 .87 5 .83 5 .77 3 .94 64 .49 5 .51 1 .23 11 .33 4 .28 3 .82 60 .29 3 .80 1 .77 16 .53 8 .70 6 .94 51 .76 4 .53 1 .82 17 .31 3 .43 8 .73 39 . 67 7 .24 6 . 17 23 .69 1.30 20.75 0.44 1.27 68.57 7 .91 46 .79 4 .68 84 .62 6 .40 78 .85 8 .06 74 .06 9 .40 73 .94 9 . 65 71 .06 7.57 26.40 LARGE FARM L E N D E R S 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) 1 maturity (months) repricing interval risk rating 3 (months) 2 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 4 7 Standard e r r o r 5 8 Interquartile R a n g e 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 457,349 509 8.08 0.96 3.61 TABLE I.H.3 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING AUGUST 3-7, 1998 Loans to farmers Size class of loans all sizes (thousands) $1-9 $10-24 $25-49 $50-99 $100-249 62,131 18,029 9. ,08 5, ,29 ,38 2, 73,061 4,987 13 .48 8. 99 2. 42 58,766 1,837 17. ,28 7. ,58 .01 2. 59,924 972 18 .91 15 .81 2 .44 58,170 438 24 .05 21 .36 1 .91 $250 and over OTHER B A N K S 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) 1 maturity (months) repricing interval risk rating 3 (months) 2 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 4 7 Standard e r r o r 5 8 Interquartile R a n g e 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 377, ( D48 26,449 18 .03 14 .04 2 .20 64,997 187 26 . 10 25 . 59 2 .06 9 .50 0 .31 9 .07 0 . 18 8 .73 0 .70 10. .52 9. .36 10 .00 8 .69 9 .69 8 .50 9 .42 7 .75 10. ,50 10. 60 , 10. 17 10. ,23 8. 89 9. ,69 9. ,78 .30 10. 10. 16 . .34 9. ,28 9. .79 9. 9 .36 10 .11 9 .24 9 .79 9 .83 9 .03 9 .54 8 .62 9 . 15 8 .95 8 .63 9 .91 45,.16 54,.56 26 .90 2 .04 , 43. 15 , 46.,47 28.,77 ,23 2, 51. .23 56,.10 26,.84 3, .83 25 .88 31 .66 12 .43 3 .96 34 .63 65 .69 8 .57 9 .13 70 .33 - - 11 .56 7 .63 46 .46 16 .38 11 .52 39 .58 2 .66 9 .05 75 .06 8 .41 1 .54 5 .83 6 .82 12,.58 59 .53 .50 11, 3 .39 11 .33 17,.89 10 .72 43 .40 12 . 16 7 .88 16 .53 2 .30 6 .32 47 .29 31 .75 6 .28 17 .31 15 .49 6 .63 40 .89 25 .49 11 .50 23 .69 24 .66 17 .47 74 .74 3 .09 87 .44 6 .20 88 .41 8 .28 83 .66 17 .07 74 .04 21 .09 78 .91 49 .31 36 .08 9 . 60 0 . 10 10, 15 , 0, ,02 , 10. 18 0. 10 , 10 .46 8 .87 10,.70 .69 9, 10. ,74 , 9. 69 9 . 87 10 .23 9 .79 9 . 58 8 .85 8 .43 10, 35 , 10,.74 10,.08 10,.15 10,.34 .97 9. 34 .82 54 .03 17 .49 2 .00 ,91 9. 0. 15 , - - 8 .63 9 .42 8 . 62 6 . 60 - - 11 .42 10 .96 38 .35 68 .57 TABLE I.H.4 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING AUGUST 3-7, 1998 Loans to farmers Risk Rating All Minimal Moderate Acceptable Special Not Rated 429,956 13,799 12 .45 3 .57 3 .00 237,850 4,429 5. 84 1. 66 4. 00 86,021 1,084 9. 38 1. 27 5. 00 30,600 880 13 .20 7 . 64 , 8 .68 0 .36 8. 93 0. 26 9. 49 0. 34 9 .78 0 . 63 9.43 0.11 9 .92 7 .42 9. ,40 8. ,21 10. 00 9. 38 10 . 52 8 . 84 10.25 8.82 9 .72 9 . 66 9 . 68 9 . 16 8 .64 9 .44 9 .22 9 .71 9 .59 9 .85 9 .38 7 .56 ,08 9. .79 9, 9. .66 10,.23 9, .06 8, .68 10. 10 , 8. 69 10. 27 10. 99 9. 50 9. ,06 10 .49 10 .00 9 .21 9 .92 2 .02 9 .47 10.11 9.70 9.64 9 . 34 9.04 8.90 Low Not Reported ALL BANKS 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) 1 maturity (months) repricing interval risk rating 3 (months) 2 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 4 Standard e r r o r 5 7 8 Interquartile R a n g e 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 1,168,968 42,831 12. 81 6. 21 3. 10 67,810 4,351 21.,25 15. ,45 1. ,00 9. 06 0. 15 , 9. 32 0. ,25 9, 93 8. 30 9, .96 8. 64 , ,74 9, 9 ,69 9 .63 9 ,53 8 .90 8 .29 9 .59 9 .28 9 . 14 9, 69 . 9 .04 , 8 .82 178,725 10,675 18 .63 13 .41 2 .00 9 .45 0 . 12 10 .00 8 .76 - 138,008 7,613 15.87 11.10 - 52 . 67 79 . 97 13 .97 1 .65 62 .86 57 .02 18 .43 0 .13 40 . 96 69 .98 24 . 34 0 .08 55 .41 85 .10 14 .49 3 .49 50 .65 92 . 11 5 .85 0 .82 78,.20 94., 67 9, .83 0. .50 32 .79 94 .89 4 .39 5 .45 46.23 54.76 15.42 5 .21 4 .78 38 .28 7 .01 5 . 14 39 .58 37 . 53 1 . 83 51 .75 3 .82 4 .00 1 .06 5 .31 7 .91 54 . 64 13 .52 14 .77 3 .85 1 .99 4 .55 38 .61 6 .87 2 .85 45 . 13 1 . 16 2 .26 20 . 12 1 .38 0 .63 74 .45 .73 0, ,87 0, 33 , .96 0, 32 . .94 1, 62 . 17 39 .85 7 .79 17 .55 2 .78 1 . 32 30 .72 1.31 8.99 48.07 15.37 10.99 15.27 10 . 99 55 .80 2 . 57 92 . 33 23 .22 71 .57 7 .95 53 .05 1 .55 35 .30 20 . 84 27 . 17 14 . 70 77 .52 18.07 74.40 - Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 17 TABLE I.H.5 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING AUGUST 3-7, 1998 Loans to farmers Risk Rating All Minimal Low Moderate Acceptable Special Not Rated Not Reported LARGE FARM LENDERS 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) 1 maturity (months) repricing interval risk rating 3 (months) 2 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 4 7 Standard error 5 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan Feeder livestock 19 20 Other livestock Other current operating expenses 21 Farm machinery and equipment 22 Farm real estate 23 Other 24 By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 791,920 16,382 10.27 2.44 3.46 12, 150 791 8 .40 4 . 16 1 .00 44,053 2,442 16 .08 6 .89 2 .00 344, 116 6,1852 12 .84 3 .01 3 .00 227,:270 2,' 966 5 .25 1 . 13 4 .00 84,132 896 9 .46 1 .23 5 .00 13,874 327 19 .03 4 .69 - 66,327 2,109 9.88 1.90 - 8.81 0.16 8 .96 0 .29 9 .36 0 .21 8 .41 0 .32 8 .87 0 .28 9 .46 0 .34 9.65 8.17 9 .57 8 . 16 9 .91 8 .77 9 .38 7 .42 9 .38 8 .20 10 .00 9 .38 11 .02 8 .84 10.16 8.84 9.41 9.12 9.52 9.36 9.04 8.29 9 .70 7 .36 8 .70 9 .05 9 .61 8 .79 9 .54 9 .14 9 .30 9 .68 10 . 34 9 .32 9 .13 8 .97 9 .39 9 .25 8 .96 7 .54 9 .46 9 .01 9 .59 9 .85 9 .06 8 .68 10 . 10 8 .69 10 .23 10 .99 9 .50 9 .06 9 .93 10 .78 9 .08 10 .48 10.05 9.40 9.77 8.61 8.81 8.48 61,, 16 92 .31 12,.30 1, .48 72,,51 77 , .01 18,.38 0. ,71 56. 71 78., 18 25.,07 0. 32 58,. 83 93,.22 12,.74 2, .60 51.,20 94.,51 5. ,79 0. ,20 78.,80 95. 57 8. 82 0. 52 72 , 32 . 98,.80 8. ,79 12 , ,02 83..57 86,.79 27,, 84 2, .19 3, .42 34,.39 .55 2, 2, ,10 39,.58 17,.49 .03 1, 67 , .23 , 2, 16 .88 9, 1, .06 11. 95 9. 38 55.,09 9. 38 0. 35 ,85 3. .20 2, 2, .90 37,.75 3, .82 .02 2, 45,.13 0. ,56 .70 1. 18. .99 0. .41 0. .66 74..45 0. 75 ,89 0. 32. 68 0. ,33 1. 98 62. 17 , 0, ,04 .02 0, .83 32 , 1 .90 , 37,.52 30,.72 0, ,65 12,,43 52,,50 ,73 1, 7, .91 46,.79 4, .95 79,.21 5, ,15 81. ,76 7, .08 48,.07 .33 1, 32,.66 21..19 25.,65 26,.53 66 .47 16,.42 82,. 10 9 . 37 0 .46 - 9 .48 9.31 0.34 15,.27 TABLE I.H.6 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING AUGUST 3-7, 1998 Loans to farmers Risk Rating All Minimal Low Moderate Acceptable Special 85,840 6,947 10. 88 5. 79 3. 00 10,580 1,462 18. 09 12. 83 4. 00 1,889 188 5 .98 2 .88 5 .00 Not Rated Not Reported OTHER B A N K S 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) maturity (months) 1 repricing interval risk rating 3 (months) 2 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 4 7 Standard error 5 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 377,048 26,449 18, .03 14, ,04 .20 2, 55,660 3,561 .06 24 , 17,,91 1, .00 134,672 8,233 19 .45 15 .50 2 .00 16,726 554 9, ,51 9, ,50 71,681 5,505 21.43 19.64 9 . 54 0.21 9 .40 0 . 26 9 .48 0 . 14 9. 78 0. ,29 10. 22 0. 19 , 10 . 88 1 .47 10,. 13 0, .98 10 .46 8 .87 10 .24 8 . 68 10 . 24 8 .76 10,,64 ,27 9. 11,.02 ,49 9, 11 .85 10 .51 10 .52 10 . 52 10.26 8.54 9 .87 10 .23 9 .79 9 .58 8 .85 8 .43 9 .58 9 .49 9 .27 9 .76 8 .59 8 . 84 9 .95 ,97 9, 10,.48 10,.28 10,.33 9, .94 7 . 77 , ,76 8, 11,.78 10,.27 10,.38 8, .68 10 . 14 10 .49 10 .00 9 .92 9 . 67 2 . 02 9 .03 10.12 10.30 9.50 9.38 9.16 10.42 38,.79 40,.50 7, .29 51 . 48 54 . 62 54 .77 50 . 10 91 . 64 0 .73 25.12 3.92 9 .60 0 . 10 - 9 .81 9 .05 8 . 63 10 .36 - 10 .95 - - 34 .82 54 .03 17 .49 2 .00 60 .76 52 .66 18 .44 10 .84 35 .81 67 . 30 24 . 10 1 .11 ' 41 . 68 52,.56 21 .52 11 .56 7 .63 46 .46 16 .38 11 .52 39 .58 41 .91 2 .00 48 .37 4 . 19 2 .72 1 .06 3 .14 7 .42 54 .49 14 .88 19 .49 3 .85 1 . 14 11,.18 42 .06 19,.08 .18 6, 45 .13 13 .95 14 . 18 44 .34 22 .29 3 .82 74 .45 17 .47 74 .74 2 .06 95 . 19 29 . 14 68 .24 11 .47 72 . 99 6 .40 92 .07 - - - - - - - .21 .03 .20 .04 . 61 .17 8 .21 24 .90 4 .87 119 .93 43.98 30 .72 15.27 4 .86 95 . 14 4 .89 86 .69 19.59 67.27 645 126 91 31 527 62 - - Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 19 cn NOTES TO TABLE I.H The Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers collects data on gross loan extensions made during the first full business week in the mid-month of each quarter by a sample of 250 banks of all sizes. The sample data are blown up to estimate the lending terms at all insured agricultural banks during that week. The estimated terms of bank lending are not intended for use in collecting the terms of loans extended over the entire quarter or those residing in the portfolios of banks. Loans of less than $1,000 are excluded from the survey. 1. Average maturities are weighted by loan size and exclude loans with no stated maturity. 2. The repricing interval measures the period from the date the loan is made until it first may be repriced. For floating-rate loans that are subject to repricing at any time-such as many prime-based loans-the repricing interval is zero. For floating rate loans that have a scheduled repricing interval, the interval measures the number of days between the date the loan is made and the date on which it is next scheduled to reprice. For loans having rates that remain fixed until the loan matures (fixedrate loans), the interval measures the number of days between the date the loan is made and the date on which it matures. Loans that reprice daily are assumed to reprice on the business day after they are made. 3. A complete description of these risk rating categories is available from the Banking and Money Market Statistics Section, mail stop 81, the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551. The category "Moderate Risk" includes the average loan, under average economic conditions, at the typical lender. The weighted-average risk ratings are calculated by assigning a value of "1" to minimal risk loans; "2" to low risk loans; "3" to moderate risk loans; "4" to acceptable risk loans; and "5" to special mention and classified loans. These values are weighted by loan amount and exclude loans with no risk rating. Some of the loans are not rated for risk. 4. Effective (compounded) annual interest rates are calculated from the stated rate and other terms of the loans and weighted by loan size. 5. The chances are about two out of three that the average rate shown would differ by less than this amount from the average rate that would be found by a complete survey of lending at all banks. 6. The interquartile range shows the interest rate range that encompasses the middle 50 percent of the total dollar amount of loans made. 7. Among banks reporting loans to farmers, most "large banks" (survey strata 1 and 2) had over $25 million in farm loans, most "other banks" (survey strata 3 to 5) had farm loans below $25 million. Table I•I Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers. (selected quarters) bv USDA Farm Production Region NE Proportion of farm loans outstanding. June 1998 Sample Coverage. Aug. 1998 survey C5 LS SE AP NP 2 .7 12 . 3 26. 0 17 . 5 7 .9 11 . 8 3 .2 11 . 3 13 . 4 17 . 9 28. 6 29. 5 20. 1 14. 5 40. DL SP MN PA 4. 4 4. 6 9. 5 5. 9 9. 1 8. 8 6. 8 6. 6 22. 8 72 . 6 35. 8 20. 4 29. 8 32 . 1 115 . 9 (%) Avg. Loan Size. Aug. 1998 survev f S1000) 1 Enter est Rats: Durins Sample Week Weighted Average : Su r v#a v flatp : Nov. 1992 7 .9 (. 28) 9. 2 (. 18) 8. 3 (. 25) 7 .9 (. 56) ( . 1 38) 5.5 7 .3 (. 39) 8. 4 (. 13) 8. 2 (. 5 0 ) 7 .6 (. 4 7 ) 6. 9 (. 33) Feb. 1993 7 .8 (. 2 7 ) 9. 0 (. 2 8 ) 8. 0 (. 2 7 ) 8. 0 (. 4 7 ) 5. 6 (. 9 0 ) 8. 3 (. 22) 7 .8 (. 41) 7 .8 (. 6 1 ) 7 .5 (. 41) 6. 5 (. 44) 1993 8. 1 (. 2 4 ) 8. 7 (. 21) 8. 1 (. 27) 7. 9 (. 3 2 ) 5 .2 (. 5 7 ) 8. 4 (. 29) 7 .8 (. 4 3 ) 8. 3 (. 4 8 ) 7 .7 (. 5 2 ) 6 ..8 (. 26) Aug. 1993 8. 2 (. 35) 7 5 ( . 69) 8. 2 (. 18) 8. 0 (. 3 3 ) 5.7 (. 9 4 ) 7 .3 (. 37) 7 .0 (. 7 4 ) 7 .7 (. 62) 7.1 (. 34) 7. ,2 (. ,39) Nov. 1993 8. 3 (. 28) 8. 1 (. 19) 7. 8 (. 22) 7 .4 (. 5 0 ) 5. 3 (1. 7 3 ) 6 .3 (. 0 7 ) 8. 2 (. 12) 7 .8 (. 5 7 ) 7.1 (. 3 6 ) 6 .,7 (. .49) Feb. 1994 7. 7 (. 3 2 ) 8. 6 (. 2 5 ) 7 9 (. 22) 7 .5 (. 3 9 ) 5. 2 (1. 0 9 ) 7 .3 (. 0 9 ) 7 .7 (. 3 3 ) 7 .6 (. 43) 7 .3 (. 6 9 ) 6 ..9 (. .31) 1994 8. 7 (. 28) 9 0 ( 26) 8. 0 (. 17) 8., 1 (. 2 3 ) 6. 1 (• 7 9 ) 8. 2 (. 29) 7 .8 (. 6 0 ) 8. 4 (. 3 6 ) 7 .5 (. 34) 7. .2 (. 2 6 ) , Aug. 1994 9. 1 ( 19) 8 6 ( 41) 8. 3 ( 40) 8. .6 (. 19) . 6. 5 (. 8 3 ) 8. 6 (. 11) 7 .6 (. 72) 8. 6 (. 3 7 ) , 7 .,6 (. 35) 7. .5 (. .25) Nov. 1994 10 2 (. 38) 9 7 (. .18) 8 9 (. 18) . 8. .5 (. 3 9 ) . 7 .. 1 (. 3 9 ) 8. 5 (. 3 7 ) 8. 8 (. 6 8 ) , 9. .0 (. 17) 8. 0 (. 43) 8. ,5 (. .20) Feb. 1995 11. 7 (. 65) 10.. 7 (. 14) . 1 0 . .0 (. 1 4 ) . 9 . ,9 ( . . 16) 8 .,6 (. 7 9 ) . (1.7 9 ) 7 .2 10.,4 . (. 3 4 ) . 10 . ,4 (. 2 1 ) . 9.,4 (. .50) 9..4 ( .. 2 5 ) 1995 9. 0 (. 3 8 ) . .4 10. (. .29) 9 ..3 (. 4 5 ) . 9. .4 ( . .42) 8.. 5 (. .93) 10 .2 (. 31) 10. 7 , (. 7 4 ) . 10., 1 (. .18) 9.,3 (. .23) 9,. 3 (. .34) Aug. 1995 9..6 (. 3 6 ) . 10. .3 (. .21) 9..3 (. .46) 9 ..8 (. 16) . 8.. 1 (. 9 6 ) . 9. 6 (. 10) 10. .4 (. 3 1 ) . 10. 1 . (. .22) 9..4 ( . .39) 9..5 (. .29) Nov. 1995 .8 10. (. .32) . 10. 3 (. .21) 8..3 (. .93) 9.. 6 (. .26) 7. 9 (. .80) 10 . 1 , (. 2 5 ) . 10. .3 (. .32) 9..8 (. .24) 9.. 3 (. 6 6 ) . .9 8. (, .40) Feb. 1996 .8 8. (. .32) 9 .9 (. 2 5 ) . 8. .0 (1. 10) . 9. 4 . (. .22) 7.3 (. 9 9 ) . 9 . .4 (. 3 1 ) . 10. .9 (. 2 2 ) . 9. .9 (. .24) 8. .9 (. .85) 8,. 1 (.. 6 5 ) 10 .2 ( .13) 7. .3 ( .. 9 3 ) . 9. 0 (.38) 8.. 1 (. 8 6 ) . 9 . .6 (. 6 8 ) . 10,.4 ( .. 3 6 ) .8 9, (. 2 5 ) . .7 8. (. .78) 8 .3 (. 6 5 ) 9 .9 ( .18) 8, .9 (..49) 9 .4 ( .25) 7, .6 ( ,.82) 9. .4 (. .59) 10 .0 (. 3 7 ) 9. .4 (. .18) 8. .9 (.. 5 8 ) 8. 1 (. 5 6 ) 9 .9 ( .14) 9 .3 ( .11) 9 .0 (.55) 7.5 , (.82) 9.. 3 (. .57) 9 .9 ( .40) 9, 1 . ( .25) .0 9, (. 7 5 ) . 8 .6 (.48) 9 .5 ( .24) 10, 1 . ( .27) 8 .7 ( .35) 9 .7 (. 2 3 ) .0 10, (. 2 9 ) 8 .7 (. 5 1 ) 9 .9 ( . 12) 9 .7 (. 2 7 ) 10 .5 ( .23) 8 .7 ( .34) 9 .4 (.05) 9 .4 (. 3 8 ) 10 . 1 (. 5 7 ) 8 .8 ( .31) May May May May 1996 Aug. 1996 Nov., 1996 .3 10. (. 2 5 ) . 8, .3 (, .87) 10 . 1 (. 2 1 ) Feb.. 1997 8 .8 (.11) 9 .5 (. 2 6 ) 9 .5 (.12) 9. 3 (. 2 2 ) 8 .0 (. 5 1 ) 9..9 (. 3 2 ) . 9 .5 ( .35) 1997 9 .4 ( .43) 10 . 1 ( .17) 9 .2 ( .22) 9 .5 ( .27) 8 .3 (. 6 2 ) 9,.9 (.. 6 6 ) 10 .2 (. 2 9 ) 10. 1 . (.24) May Aug . 1997 9 .3 ( .47) 9 .8 ( . 18) 9 .6 ( .14) 9 .9 ( .08) 8 .5 (. 2 6 ) Nov,. 1997 9 .2 ( .41) 9 .5 (.17) 9 .3 (. 1 0 ) 9 .8 ( .08) 7. 5 ( .60) 9 .8 (.11) Feb . 1998 9 .3 (. 5 1 ) 9 .0 (. 2 7 ) 9 .4 (. 1 7 ) 9 .8 ( .09) 7. 3 ( .77) 10 . 0 (.48) 10 .3 ( .13) 9 .8 (. 3 0 ) 9 .6 (. 4 3 ) 8 .5 ( . 19) May 1998 9 .2 ( .49) 9 .4 ( .24) 9 .2 ( . 15) 9.7 ( . 10) 7 .6 ( .54) 10 . 2 ( . 12) 10 . 3 ( .34) 9 .6 (.30) 9 .8 ( .42) 8 .4 ( . 39) 8 .5 9 .6 9 .5 9.5 9 .7 8 .8 9. 5 9. 5 9 .5 10 .2 ( ,23) ( ,47) ( ,25) (,19) ( ,12) ( ,17) ( ,29) ( ,29) ( , 17) ( .21) NE is Northeast. LS is Lake States. CB is Cornbelt, NP is Northern Plains. AP is Appalachia. SE is Southeast. DL is Delta States. SP is Southern Plains. MN is Mountain States, and PA is Pacific. Aug . 1998 Standard errors are in parentheses below each estimate. Standard errors are calculated replications of a bootstrap procedure (resampling of banks) in each region. from 100 22 SECTION II: SELECTED STATISTICS F R O M T H E Q U A R T E R L Y R E P O R T S OF C O N D I T I O N OF C O M M E R C I A L B A N K S TABLES: Commercial banks: II.A II.B II.C II.D II.E Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Agricultural II.F II.G II.H II.I v o l u m e of farm l o a n s at i n s u r e d c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s d e l i n q u e n t non- real - e s t a t e f a r m l o a n s at i n s u r e d c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s net c h a r g e - o f f s of n o n - r e a l - e s t a t e farm l o a n s at i n s u r e d c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s d e l i n q u e n t real e s t a t e f a r m l o a n s at i n s u r e d c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s net c h a r g e - o f f s of real e s t a t e farm l o a n s at i n s u r e d c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s banks: D i s t r i b u t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s by r a t i o of n o n p e r f o r m i n g l o a n s D i s t r i b u t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s by rate of r e t u r n to e q u i t y L o a n - d e p o s i t r a t i o s at a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s F a i l u r e s of a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s S O U R C E S OF !! 24 25 26 27 28 to t o t a l loans 29 30 31 32 DATA: T h e d a t a in t a b l e s II.A t h r o u g h II.H a r e p r e p a r e d u s i n g data from t h e q u a r t e r l y r e p o r t s of c o n d i t i o n and i n c o m e for c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s . D e l i n q u e n c i e s and c h a r g e - o f f s of n o n - r e a l - e s t a t e farm l o a n s for the n a t i o n as a w h o l e (table I I . B and t a b l e I I . C ) a r e e s t i m a t e d from r e p o r t s of b a n k s that h o l d m o r e t h a n 90 p e r c e n t of t o t a l n o n - r e a l - e s t a t e farm loans. T h e i n c o m p l e t e c o v e r a g e a r i s e s b e c a u s e b a n k s w i t h l e s s t h a n $ 3 0 0 m i l l i o n in assets have been excused from some reporting requirements. First, these smaller banks report delinquencies and c h a r g e - o f f s of " a g r i c u l t u r a l l o a n s " a c c o r d i n g to the p a r t i c u l a r b a n k ' s own d e f i n i t i o n , w h i c h m a y i n c l u d e l o a n s that a r e s e c u r e d by f a r m real e s t a t e . F u r t h e r m o r e , s m a l l b a n k s that h o l d l e s s t h a n 5 p e r c e n t of t o t a l l o a n s as f a r m p r o d u c t i o n l o a n s a r e n o t r e q u i r e d to report any i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g d e l i n q u e n c i e s or c h a r g e o f f s of " a g r i c u l t u r a l l o a n s . " In c o n s t r u c t i n g t h e d a t a p r e s e n t e d in t h e t a b l e s , b a n k s that a r e not r e q u i r e d to r e p o r t t h e s e d a t a are a s s u m e d to h a v e t h e s a m e d e l i n q u e n c y r a t e s as t h o s e that do r e p o r t . In 1991, b a n k s b e g a n to r e p o r t d e l i n q u e n c i e s of l o a n s that a r e s e c u r e d by farm real e s t a t e . T h e s e d a t a , w h i c h are s h o w n in t a b l e s I I . D and I I . E , are r e p o r t e d by all b a n k s , r e g a r d l e s s of the s i z e of t h e i n s t i t u t i o n or t h e r e l a t i v e a m o u n t s of f a r m l o a n s that t h e y h o l d . B e c a u s e " a g r i c u l t u r a l l o a n s " and l o a n s s e c u r e d by f a r m real e s t a t e m a y o v e r l a p for s o m e s m a l l b a n k s , it is u n c l e a r w h e t h e r it is p r o p e r to add t h e d a t a in t a b l e I I . B to i t s c o u n t e r p a r t in t a b l e I I . D to o b t a i n t o t a l a g r i c u l t u r a l d e l i n q u e n c i e s . A s i m i l a r c a v e a t a p p l i e s to the d a t a c o n c e r n i n g c h a r g e - o f f s in t a b l e s I I . C and I I . E . E x a m i n a t i o n of t o t a l l e n d i n g at b a n k s that h a v e a h i g h e x p o s u r e to a g r i c u l t u r a l l o a n s p r o v i d e s an a l t e r n a t i v e p e r s p e c t i v e on t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l l e n d i n g s i t u a t i o n . A g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s in t a b l e I I . D t h r o u g h t a b l e II.I are t h o s e that h a v e a p r o p o r t i o n of f a r m l o a n s (real e s t a t e p l u s n o n r e a l e s t a t e ) to t o t a l l o a n s that is g r e a t e r than the u n w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e at all b a n k s . T h e e s t i m a t e of t h i s a v e r a g e w a s 15.8 p e r c e n t in J u n e of 1998. I n f o r m a t i o n on f a i l e d b a n k s (table I I . I ) is o b t a i n e d from n e w s r e l e a s e s of the F e d e r a l D e p o s i t I n s u r a n c e C o r p o r a t i o n , w i t h a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s b r o k e n out in our t a b u l a t i o n a c c o r d i n g to the d e f i n i t i o n s t a t e d in the previous paragraph. • • • # # # # # • • • SECTION Recent II: (continued 1 Developments: Loans outstanding: D u r i n g the first q u a r t e r of 1998, the v o l u m e of f a r m l o a n s , b o t h t h o s e s e c u r e d by f a r m real e s t a t e and o t h e r f a r m l o a n s , c o n t i n u e d to s u r g e r e l a t i v e to t h e c o m p a r a b l e p e r i o d of t h e p r e c e e d i n g year. I n d e e d , at t h e end of J u n e 1998, the y e a r l y c h a n g e in t o t a l f a r m l o a n s w a s 8.6 p e r c e n t , a rate of i n c r e a s e w e l l a b o v e the a v e r a g e i n c r e a s e over the last d e c a d e . H o w e v e r , the e s t i m a t e d v o l u m e of l o a n s from the S T B L w a s far b e l o w the r e a d i n g s o v e r the past few y e a r s , s u g g e s t i n g that f a r m b a n k s and f a r m b o r r o w e r s m a y h a v e b e g u n to r e d u c e t h e i r l e v e r a g e over the l a t t e r part of the s u m m e r . Problem loans: C o m p a r e d w i t h one y e a r e a r l i e r , the d o l l a r v o l u m e of d e l i n q u e n t f a r m n o n - real - e s t a t e l o a n s in J u n e 1998 w a s up a t o u c h , w i t h the i n c r e a s e in d e l i n q u e n c i e s c o m i n g in l o a n s t h a t w e r e p a s t due from 1 to 3 m o n t h s , h i n t i n g t h a t s o m e f a r m e r s m a y be b e g i n n i n g to h a v e d i f f i c u l t i e s m e e t i n g t h e i r p a y m e n t s . However, net c h a r g e o f f s of f a r m non- real - e s t a t e l o a n s t h r o u g h m i d y e a r w e r e q u i t e low. F u r t h e r m o r e , f e w e r t h a n 1 in 5 a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s r e p o r t e d a l e v e l of n o n p e r f o r m i n g l o a n s that w a s l e s s t h a n 2 p e r c e n t of t o t a l l o a n s - the best r e a d i n g for t h i s m e a s u r e of f i n a n c i a l h e a l t h s i n c e 1 9 9 5 . P e r f o r m a n c e of a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s : T h e a v e r a g e rate of r e t u r n on a s s e t s at a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s for the f i r s t h a l f of 1998 w a s 0.6 p e r c e n t , a s h a d e b e l o w the r e a d i n g for the f i r s t h a l f of 1997 b u t in l i n e w i t h o b s e r v a t i o n s since 1992. T h e c a p i t a l r a t i o for a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s r e m a i n e d at 11.1 p e r c e n t at the c l o s e of the s e c o n d q u a r t e r , l e a v i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s a s u b s t a n t i a l c u s h i o n to w e a t h e r a n y p r o b l e m s that m i g h t a r i s e in t h e f a r m s e c t o r . T h e ratio of l o a n s to d e p o s i t s at a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s s u r g e d to 71.3 p e r c e n t at the end of J u n e 1 9 9 8 . A g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s in all d i s t r i c t s h a v e s e e n t h e s e r a t i o s m o v e up s u b s t a n t i a l l y in recent y e a r s , w i t h o n l y the D a l l a s d i s t r i c t h a v i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s w i t h a f a i r l y l o w a v e r a g e r a t i o of l o a n s to d e p o s i t s . F a i l u r e s of a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s : L a t e in S e p t e m b e r , as t h i s i s s u e w e n t to p r e s s , o n e a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k had f a i l e d in 1998. G i v e n the s t r o n g c a p i t a l p o s i t i o n s of m o s t a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s and t h e i r low l e v e l s of p r o b l e m l o a n s , the n u m b e r of f a i l u r e s s e e m s l i k e l y to r e m a i n f a i r l y s m a l l in c o m i n g q u a r t e r s . H o w e v e r , if recent f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m s in the farm s e c t o r p e r s i s t , s t r e s s a m o n g a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s l i k e l y w o u l d rise as well. 23 FARM DEBT OUTSTANDING AT COMMERCIAL BANKS, END OF QUARTER LOAN VOLUME, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS PERCENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER NONREAL ESTATE LOANS TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS NONREAL ESTATE LOANS 1989 04... 1 47 .4 16 .6 30.8 1 -1 .2 0. ,9 -2, -2 1990 01. .. 02... 03... 04... | | j | 46 .1 49 .0 50 .5 50 .1 16 17 17 17 .8 .1 .3 .2 29.3 31.9 33.2 32.9 1 j j 1 -2 .8 6 .4 3 .1 -o .8 0. ,7 2. ,2 1, ,1 -0, ,6 1991 Ql. . . 02... 03... Q4. . . | 1 1 1 49 .5 52 .6 53 9 53 0 17 18 18 18 .5 .1 .3 .4 32.0 34.5 35.6 34.6 1 j j j "I .3 6 .2 2 .5 -1 .6 1992 oi... 02... 03... 04... 1 | 1 | 51 .9 55 .1 56 .2 54 .5 18 19 19 19 .9 .5 .9 .9 33.0 35.6 36.2 34.7 1 j j 1 1993 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... 1 | j | 52 .8 56 .0 58 .0 57 .7 20 20 20 20 .0 .6 .8 .9 32.8 35.4 37.1 36.8 1 1994 Ql. . . 02... 03... Q4. . . | | j j 56 .8 61 .1 63 .0 61 .3 21,.2 21 .9 22 .4 22 .6 1995 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . | j | 59 .9 63 .5 65, .3 63 .7 1996 Ql... 02... 03... 04... | | | | 1997 Ql... 02... 03... 04... 1998 Ql. . . 02... PERCENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS NONREAL ESTATE LOANS * .9 8, ,0 3.3 | -4, ,7 8. ,7 4, ,1 -0. ,9 4 .3 4 .3 5 .3 5 .7 5. ,9 5, ,1 5, ,0 3, ,5 3.4 3.9 5.5 6.9 1 1. .5 3, ,4 1, .4 0, ,6 ,8 -2, ,7 7, 3, ,1 -2, ,7 7 .4 7 .2 6 .6 5 .7 4. 3 . ,5 5, 5, .8 ,0 7, 9.1 8.1 7.1 5.1 -2 .1 6 .2 1 .9 -2 .9 ,7 2, 3, ,3 1, .9 -0, ,2 .6 -4, ,8 7, ,9 1, -4, .4 4 .9 4 .9 4 .2 2 .9 8, .2 8, ,1 8, .6 7, .8 3.1 3.2 1.9 0.2 j -3 .2 6 .0 3 .5 -0 .5 0, .5 3, ,1 1, .2 0, ,1 -5, .3 7, .8 4, .9 -0, .8 1 .7 1 .6 3 .2 5 .8 .6 5, 5, .4 4, ,7 5, ,0 -0.5 -0.6 2.4 6.2 35.5 39.2 40.6 38.7 1 j j j -1 .5 7 .6 3 .1 -2 .7 ,8 1, 3, ,2 ,2 2, 0. ,7 -3, .4 10, ,2 3. ,6 -4. .6 7 .6 9 .1 8 .7 6 .2 6, 4 , 6, ,4 ,5 7, 8. .2 8.3 10.7 9.3 5.2 | 22,.9 23 .6 23,.8 23,.9 36.9 40.0 41.5 39.8 1 -2 .3 6 .1 2 .9 -2 .5 ,6 1, 2, ,7 1, ,1 ,4 0, -4. .6 8. 2 . 3, ,9 -4, ,1 5 .4 4 .0 3 .7 3 .9 8, ,0 .5 7, 6, ,3 5, ,9 3.9 2.0 2.3 2.8 | j j j 61 .7 65 .7 66 .6 65 .5 24,.0 24,.7 24,.9 25 .0 37.7 41.0 41.6 40.5 1 j j -3 .1 6 .5 1 .3 -1 .6 0, ,5 2, ,7 1, ,1 0, ,3 -5, »3 8, ,9 .5 1, , -2, 8 3 .1 3 .4 1 .9 2 .8 4, ,8 4, ,7 4, ,7 4. ,6 2.0 2.7 0.3 1.8 1 j j j | | j | 63 .8 69 .0 71 .1 71 .3 25,.4 26 .2 27 .0 27 .1 38.4 42.8 44.2 44.2 | j 1 j -2.6 8 .2 3 .0 0 .3 .4 1, 3, 3 . 2, ,9 0, ,7 -5, .1 ,5 11, 3, ,1 0, ,0 3 .4 5 .1 6 .8 8 .9 5, ,5 6, ,2 8. .1 8. ,5 2.0 4.4 6.0 9.1 1 j j | j 70 .1 75 .0 27 .6 28 .5 42.4 46.5 1 j -1 .7 7 .1 1, .8 3. .2 -3, .9 .6 9. 9 .8 8 .6 9, ,0 8, .8 10.4 8.5 | j j j I 1 j j | j 1 j j | j j | TABLE II.B ESTIMATED DELINQUENT FARM NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF AS DOLLARS PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING TOTAL TOTAL PAST DUE 90 D A Y S ACCRUING 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 1 1 1 .1 1.0 1.1 1. 1 .0 .8 0, .8 0. .8 o, 1 .0 0, .9 0. ,4 0, ,4 0. .4 0. .3 0. .3 0, ,3 0, .4 0, .5 0, .4 ,7 0. 0. ,6 .7 0. .6 0, .5 0. 0. .4 0. .4 0, ,5 0, .5 31 0.9 03. Q4. 0.8 0.8 Ql. 1.3 1.2 1.0 1996 02. 03. 04. 1997 Ql. 02. 03, 04. 1998 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 year of TOTAL .7 3, 3. 1 3, .2 .8 2, 2 .2 2 .0 2 .1 2 .4 2 .0 1. .3 ,3 1. 1. ,3 1. .0 0. .8 0, .9 0, .9 1, .2 0, .9 2 .3 , 1, .9 1. .9 .8 1, 1, .4 1, .1 1 .1 1, .3 1 .1 0. .5 0. ,3 0, ,3 0. ,3 0. .2 0. .2 0, .3 0, .3 0. .2 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 TOTAL | | | | 1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 NONACCRUAL 1. .9 1 ,6 . ,6 1. 1. .5 1. .2 0, .9 0, .9 1 .0 0 .9 quarter 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 PAST DUE 90 D A Y S ACCRUING indicated .6 0. 0. .5 . 0. 5 0, .5 0. .4 0, .3 0. .3 0, .4 0, .4 0. 1 0. 1 , 0. 1 0. .1 0. .1 0. ,1 0. ,1 0. ,1 0. .1 End 1995 02. of PAST DUE 30 T O 89 DAYS ACCRUING 2.3 1.9 2.1 NONACCRUAL December PRODUCTION NONPERFORMING NONPERFORMING PAST DUE 30 T O 89 DAYS ACCRUING FARM 2.4 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1 .1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Ql, 0.2 02. 0.2 0.4 0.4 D a t a a r e e s t i m a t e s of t h e n a t i o n a l t o t a l s for f a r m n o n - r e a l - e s t a t e l o a n s . A f t e r 1984, e s t i m a t e s are b a s e d on r e p o r t s from b a n k s t h a t h o l d m o r e t h a n 90 p e r c e n t of s u c h l o a n s . E a r l i e r , o n l y l a r g e b a n k s t h a t h e l d a b o u t o n e - f o u r t h of s u c h l o a n s r e p o r t e d n o n a c c r u a l a n d r e n e g o t i a t e d f a r m l o a n s ; for o t h e r b a n k s , e s t i m a t e s of d e l i n q u e n t fa'rm l o a n s a r e b a s e d o n a s t u d y of delin q u e n t t o t a l l o a n s at t h e s e b a n k s . TABLE II.C ESTIMATED NET CHARGE-OFFS OF NON-REAL-ESTATE FARM LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS* 199 1 | 105 12 25 36 32 | 0 . 3 2 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 8 0 . 1 0 0 . 0 9 1992 I 82 14 20 29 18 j 0 . 2 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 6 0 . 0 8 0 . 0 5 1993 | 54 7 16 5 26 j 0 . 1 5 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 7 1994 j 69 10 1 1 15 33 j 0 . 1 9 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 8 1995 | 5 1 - 2 14 13 25 | 0 . 1 3 - 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 6 1996 j 95 16 27 24 30 j 0 . 2 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 7 0 . 0 6 0 . 0 7 1997 j 93 6 19 19 50 j 0 . 2 3 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 0 . 1 1 * * 4 15 * * * * * * 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 4 * * * * 199 8 * Data are estimates of the national charge-offs of farm non-real-estate loans based on reports from banks that hold more than 90 percent of the outstanding national volume of such loans. Additional uncertainty of the estimates arises because small banks report only charge-offs of 'agricultural' loans as defined by each bank for its internal purposes. Banks first reported these data on the March 1984 Report of Income. TABLE II.D DELINQUENT FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AS PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS NONPERFORMING NONPERFORMING TOTAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONACCRUAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONACCRUAL December 31 of year indicated 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 199 7 | j | | j 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 | | | | j j 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 .0.5 End of quarter 1995 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 1996 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1997 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 1998 Ql. 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 02. 0.3 0.4 All commercial banks began to report these data in 1991. 27 28 TABLE II.E NET CHARGE-OFFS OF REAL ESTATE FARM LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS* ESTIMATED AMOUNT MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTAL 1993 | 6 199 4 j - 1 199 5 | 3 199 6 | 1 199 7 j 4 Q1 199 8 * All * * commercial banks began 0 - - 0 - 2 1 3 | 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 0 2 0 . 0 0 3 0 . 0 0 8 0 . 0 1 5 1 j - 0 . 0 0 - 0 . 0 0 4 - 0 . 0 0 4 0 . 0 0 2 0 . 0 0 3 2 j 0 . 0 1 - 0 . 0 0 1 - 0 . 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 6 0 . 0 0 7 j 0 . 0 1 - 0 . 0 0 4 - 0 . 0 0 3 0 . 0 0 3 0 . 0 0 9 | 0 . 0 1 - 0 . 0 0 4 - 0 . 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 5 0 . 0 1 3 * * - 0 . 0 0 6 - 0 . 0 0 2 * * * * 0 - 0 1 1 - - 2 to r e p o r t 2 1 0 1 2 1 - 1 Q1 Q4 1 1 ANNUAL TOTAL Q3 Q2 - CHARGE-OFFS AS A PERCENTAGE OF SUCH LOANS OUTSTANDING 4 * * these data * * in 1991. Q2 Q3 Q4 TABLE II.F DISTRIBUTION OF A G R I C U L T U R A L B A N K S BY T H E NONPERFORMING TOTAL UNDER 2.0 SHARE OF THEIR LOANS AS A 2.0 TO 4.9 -Percentage distribution, 100..0 100,.0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 100..0 1 0 0 .0 0 .0 65.,8 69..6 70..8 76..2 80,.6 85,,5 83,.7 81,.8 84 .4 - Percentage 1995 PERCENTAGE OF T O T A L 1010 TO 14.9 5.0 TO 9.9 December 31 of y e a r 7,.6 6,.4 5..8 3..9 2,.8 1,.9 2,.1 2 .3 2 .4 distribution, end 1., 2 1.,0 0..7 0..8 0..6 0..2 0..3 0..2 0..1 of NONPERFORMING* LOANS 15.0 TO 19.9 20.0 AND OVER indicated0.,2 0.,2 0..3 0.,1 0..1 0..1 0..1 0..1 0.. 1 0. 1 0.,0 0.,1 0.,0 0.,0 0..0 0.,1 0..1 0..0 quarter 1 0 0 ..0 1 0 0 ..0 83 . ,0 83 . ,7 .3 14 . 13 , .8 .3 2 . 2 . 1 , 0. 3 0.,3 0. 0 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 | | 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 78.,4 78..5 79,.3 81,.8 17 , .2 16..9 17 , .0 15 .5 3 3 3 2 , .5 . .9 , . 1 .3 , 0..5 0..6 0..5 0..2 0., 0., 0., 0., 1 1 1 1 0.. 0., 0., 0., oi... 02... 03... 04... I | | | 100,.0 100,.0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 79,.0 80,.6 81 .7 84 .4 16 15 15 13 .8 .8 .2 .0 3 3 2 2 .7 .2 .7 .4 0,.4 0,.4 0 .2 0 .1 0,. 0,, 0,. 0,. 1 1 1 1 0., 1 0..0 0,. 1 0,.0 oi... 02... I | 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 80 .6 81 .0 16 .4 15 .7 2 .8 2 .9 0 .1 0 .3 0,.1 0,.1 03... Q4 . . . | Ql. . . Q2... I | 03... 04... 1997 1998 1996 25,.1 .7 22 , .3 22 , 18 , .9 15,.9 12 .3 13 .8 15 .5 13 .0 LOANS THAT ARE | 1 1 1 1 0,. 1 0 .0 * N o n p e r f o r m i n g l o a n s a r e l o a n s in n o n a c c r u a l s t a t u s o r p a s t d u e 90 d a y s o r m o r e . R e n e g o t i a t e d or r e s t r u c t u r e d in c o m p l i a n c e w i t h t h e m o d i f i e d t e r m s a r e n o t i n c l u d e d . A g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s a r e d e f i n e d in t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n to section loans II. 29 30 TABLE II.G SELECTED MEASURES OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL AND OTHER BANKS NET INCOME AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE EQUITY AT AGRICULTURAL BANKS ALL BANKS NEGATIVE 0 TO 4 5 TO 9 10 TO 14 AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN TO EQUITY 15 TO 19 20 25 TO AND 24 OVER AVERAGE CAPITAL RATIO (PERCENT) NET CHARGE-OFFS AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LOANS RATE OF RETURN TO ASSETS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS ,0 11, ,8 10. 10. 9 , .6 12. 12. 4 11. .9 ,3 11. ,5 11. .6 11. 10. ,0 8. ,5 8. 9 , 11. .5 12. .4 12. 4 . 11. 6 ,6 11. ,8 11. .0 1. .0 1, 1, ,0 1, .2 .2 1, .2 1, 1, .2 1. .2 1. .2 ,8 0. 0. ,7 ,7 0. 1, .0 1, .1 1, .1 1, .1 1, ,1 1, .2 0, .6 .4 0, 0, .4 0, .4 0, .2 0, .2 0, .2 0, .3 0, .2 0, .7 .7 0, 0, ,8 0, .7 0, .4 0, .3 0, .3 0, .3 0, .3 10. ,1 9. 9 , 10. ,1 10. 4 . 10. .8 10, 7 . 11, .1 10, 9 . .0 11, 9, ,0 9. .0 .2 9. .5 9, 10, .0 9 .9 10 .5 10 .6 10 .7 •percentage distribution 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 | j | | | | | | 100. .0 100, .0 100, .0 100, ,0 100, .0 100, .0 100, ,0 100, .0 100, ,0 5, ,0 4. ,9 4, ,1 1, ,9 1, .5 1, ,5 1,4 2. .0 ,6 1, 7, .0 .5 7, 7, .7 5, .0 5 .7 5, .7 5 .6 .5 5, 5, .9 .0 29, 33, .4 32, ,2 25, .5 .8 27, 31, .3 36, .8 33, .5 34, .3 38, .0 37 .6 39, .2 41, .1 40, .6 40 .2 39 .9 41 .5 39 .5 ,0 14, 12, .9 13 .4 19, .8 18 .5 17, .1 13 .3 14, .3 14, .3 4 .0 2 .6 2 .5 5 .1 4 .6 3 .3 2 .4 2 .6 3 .2 3, .0 1, .1 0, .9 .7 1, 1. .3 .9 0, 0, .6 .5 0, 1, .2 I 1 | j | j | j QUARTERLY •YEAR TO DATE 1995 Q3.. . Q4. . . 1996 Ql. . . Q2. . . Q3. . . 04... 100. .0 100. ,0 100. .0 .0 100, 1997 Ql... Q2. . . 03... 04... 100, ,0 100, .0 100, .0 100, .0 1998 Ql... 02... 100, .0 100, .0 8, 9 . 11, 3 100. 0 100. ,0 • * ** ** ** ** ** ** 9. 3 . , 11. 6 0.9 1. ,2 0. 9 , 1. ,1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 11, 3 . 11, ,1 10. 5 10. 5 3, .1 6, ,2 9 .2 11, .5 3. .1 6. .1 .0 9, 11, .6 0.3 ,6 0. 0. 9 , 1. .2 .3 0. .6 0. 0, .9 1, .1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0. ,1 0. ,1 ,2 0. 0. 3 , 11, .0 11 .0 11 .0 10 .9 .6 10, 10, .5 10, .5 10, .6 3 .0 6, .2 9 .0 .6 11, 3, .1 6, .1 9, .3 .8 11, 0, .3 0, ,7 1, ,0 1. ,2 0, .3 0, .6 0, .9 .2 1, 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0. ,1 0. ,1 0. ,2 0. 3 , 11 .0 11.1 11 .3 11 .0 10 .6 10, .7 10 .9 10, .7 3 .0 6 .1 3, .2 6 .1 0. .3 0, .6 0, .3 0, .6 0,0 0.1 0. .1 0, ,1 11.1 11 .1 10, ,7 10, .9 * Agricultural and other banks are defined in the introduction to section II; small banks have less than 500 million dollars in assets. Total primary and secondary capital (items that are available at the end of the period specified) are measured as a percentage of total assets. Quarterly data in the lower panel are cumulative through the end of the quarter indicated and, for periods of less than a year, are not comparable to the annual data in the upper panel. TABLE II.H AVERAGE LOAN-DEPOSIT RATIOS AT AGRICULTURAL BANKS IN SELECTED FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS* DECEMBER 31 U.S. ST. LOUIS CHICAGO ATLANTA CLEVELAND KANSAS CITY MINNEAPOLIS DALLAS SAN FRANCISCO MINIMUM FARM LOAN RATIO LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS 1992 . 1993 , 1994 , 1995, 1996 1997 3854 3723 3550 3482 3347 3207 0. 555 0. 582 0. 625 0 .641 0. 658 0. 687 75 67 56 60 55 54 0. 643 0. 660 0. 707 0. 717 0. 775 0. 770 131 130 125 135 126 122 0. 607 0. 618 0. 646 0. 647 0. 682 0. 706 948 912 860 841 814 784 0. 574 0. 600 0. 643 0. 658 0. 681 0 . 721 456 432 402 393 384 360 0. 563 0. 590 0. 629 0. 654 0. 666 0. 699 694 669 658 637 619 584 0. 579 0. 615 0. 674 0. 681 0. 698 ,727 0. 1092 1063 1014 981 944 904 0. 533 0. 566 0 . 618 0. 634 0. 649 0 . ,679 384 378 366 359 331 325 0. 422 0. 442 0. 474 0. 499 0. 492 0. 528 61 58 53 55 55 53 0. 708 0. 733 0. 747 0. 7 4 1 0. 734 0. 660 1 6 . 72 17 . 04 1 6 . 99 1 5 . 79 1 5 . 41 15 . 40 1995 0 3 . . . 04... 3617 3482 , 0, 668 0, 641 , 64 60 ,736 0. ,717 0, 150 135 0 . 680 0 . 647 868 841 0. 685 0. 658 432 393 0. 692 0. ,654 652 637 0 ,717 , , 0, 6 8 1 1007 981 0 ,,647 0 .634 368 359 0. ,525 0. ,499 56 55 0, 763 0 .741 17 , .27 15 .79 1996 o i . . . 02... 03... 04... 3471 3461 3400 3347 0 . 639 . 0 . 665 0 .674 0 .658 58 57 58 55 0 .721 0 .743 0 .780 0 .775 143 151 140 126 0. 664 0 ,690 . ,708 0. 0,.682 828 829 814 814 ,657 0, 0 ,671 0 .690 0 .681 394 402 406 384 , 0, 650 0 . 692 0 .699 0 .666 632 630 623 619 0 . 682 0 .712 0 .716 0 .698 978 964 952 944 0 0 0 0 .629 .651 .662 .649 357 349 331 331 .489 0, 0 ,515 0 .510 0 .492 57 54 54 55 0 .737 0 .778 0 .757 0 .734 15 15 15 15 .46 . 94 . 84 .41 1997 o i . . . 02... 03... 04... 3336 3323 3274 3207 0 .660 0 .696 0 .703 0 .687 52 55 54 54 0 .780 0 .809 0 .808 0 .770 128 144 139 122 .706 0, .714 0, 0 .732 0 .706 806 799 795 784 0 .685 0 .712 0 .730 0 .721 382 383 384 360 0 .662 0 .703 0 .722 0 . 699 611 604 591 584 0 .701 0 .763 0 .749 0 .727 941 922 913 904 0 .644 0 . 677 0 .686 0 .679 339 338 325 325 0 .499 0 . 536 0 .543 0 .528 54 54 52 53 0 .722 0 .704 0 . 679 0 . 660 15 15 15 15 .02 . 57 . 64 . 40 1998 01... 02... 3176 3164 0 .689 0 .713 53 50 0 .782 0 .792 118 118 0 .719 0 .731 762 757 0 .726 0 .746 355 360 0 .691 0 .726 583 579 0 .731 0 .769 906 904 0 .681 0 .699 325 322 0 . 527 0 . 536 53 53 0 . 667 0 .701 15 . 28 15 .76 * The loan-deposit ratio is defined as total loans divided by total deposits, that shown in the last column, as described in the introduction to section II. Agricultural banks are defined as banks with a farm loan ratio at least as great as 31 TABLE II.I FAILURES OF A G R I C U L T U R A L BANKS* NUMBER OF FAILURES Q1 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Q2 Q3 Q4 ANNUAL TOTAL 22 11 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 19 6 7 5 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 12 12 5 6 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 16 7 5 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 69 36 22 17 8 7 5 0 0 2 1 * * * D a t a e x c l u d e b a n k s a s s i s t e d to p r e v e n t f a i l u r e . Industrial banks and mutual savings banks also are excluded. Agricultural b a n k s a r e d e f i n e d in t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n to s e c t i o n II. SECTION III: FEDERAL R E S E R V E BANK QUARTERLY S U R V E Y S OF FARM CREDIT CONDITIONS AND FARM LAND VALUES TABLES: Page, 1 Nonreal estate lending experience E x p e c t e d c h a n g e in non- real - e s t a t e l o a n v o l u m e and r e p a y m e n t c o n d i t i o n s A v e r a g e l o a n / d e p o s i t ratio, and o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s of r e l a t i v e c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y Interest rates T r e n d s in r e a l e s t a t e v a l u e s and loan v o l u m e III.A III.B III.C III.D III.E S O U R C E S OF 35 37 39 41 43 DATA: D a t a are from q u a r t e r l y s u r v e y s of a g r i c u l t u r a l c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s at c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s . These surveys are c o n d u c t e d at the end of e a c h q u a r t e r by five F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k s . T h e s i z e of t h e s u r v e y s d i f f e r s c o n s i d e r a b l y , as is n o t e d in the i n f o r m a t i o n b e l o w . In a d d i t i o n , t h e f i v e s u r v e y s d i f f e r in s u b j e c t m a t t e r c o v e r e d (as is e v i d e n t in the t a b l e s ) , w o r d i n g of b a s i c a l l y s i m i l a r q u e s t i o n s , and t y p e of b a n k s c o v e r e d . M o s t of the d i f f e r e n c e s in w o r d i n g are r e f l e c t e d in the use of d i f f e r e n t c o l u m n h e a d i n g s on t h e t w o p a g e s of each table. T h e s t a t e s i n c l u d e d in e a c h d i s t r i c t are i n d i c a t e d in t h e t a b l e h e a d i n g s ; s t a t e s that f a l l o n l y p a r t l y w i t h i n a g i v e n d i s t r i c t are m a r k e d w i t h a s t e r i s k s . Many questions were B e g i n n i n g in 1994, the M i n n e a p o l i s F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k r e v i s e d its s u r v e y c o n s i d e r a b l y . c h a n g e d and it w a s not a l w a y s p o s s i b l e to m a t c h the d a t a to the c a t e g o r i e s t h a t w e h a v e s h o w n in p r e v i o u s e d i t i o n s of the D a t a b o o k . W h e n e v e r p o s s i b l e , we h a v e tried to fit the d a t a f r o m the r e v i s e d s u r v e y i n t o the older format. S e r i e s that w e r e d i s c o n t i n u e d s h o w no d a t a for the f i r s t q u a r t e r , w h i l e t h o s e that w e r e a d d e d suddenly appear. W h e n a s i g n i f i c a n t b r e a k in the d a t a o c c u r r e d , we i n c l u d e d t h e n e w d a t a and a d d e d a f o o t n o t e to h i g h l i g h t the c h a n g e s . Research results; d e p a r t m e n t s at e a c h of the f i v e R e s e r v e B a n k s i s s u e m o r e d e t a i l e d t h e s e r e p o r t s are a v a i l a b l e at the a d d r e s s e s g i v e n b e l o w . quarterly reports on their survey F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of C h i c a g o . B o x 834, C h i c a g o , I l l i n o i s , 6 0 6 9 0 T h e s a m p l e i n c l u d e s m e m b e r b a n k s at w h i c h farm l o a n s r e p r e s e n t e d 25 p e r c e n t or m o r e of t o t a l l o a n s as J u n e 1972 (a 10 p e r c e n t s t a n d a r d is used for b a n k s in the s t a t e of M i c h i g a n ) . The sample has u n d e r g o n e periodic review. T h e l a t e s t s u r v e y r e s u l t s w e r e b a s e d on the r e s p o n s e s of a b o u t 4 5 0 b a n k s . F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of K a n s a s C i t v . F e d e r a l R e s e r v e P.O. S t a t i o n , K a n s a s C i t y M i s s o u r i 6 4 1 9 8 T h e s a m p l e c h o s e n o r i g i n a l l y in 1976 c o n s i s t e d of 181 b a n k s s e l e c t e d f r o m b a n k s at w h i c h f a r m c o n s t i t u t e d 50 p e r c e n t or m o r e of t o t a l l o a n s , w i t h a p p r o p r i a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of all f a r m a r e a s w a s r e d r a w n and s i g n i f i c a n t l y e x p a n d e d in 1987; r o u g h l y 300 b a n k s r e s p o n d e d to t h e l a t e s t s u r v e y loans The of sample F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of M i n n e a p o l i s . M i n n e a p o l i s , M i n n e s o t a 55480 B e f o r e 1987, the s a m p l e p r o v i d e d a c r o s s - s e c t i o n of b a n k s of all s i z e s t h a t w e r e e n g a g e d in f a r m l e n d i n g . M e m b e r s of the U p p e r M i d w e s t A g r i c u l t u r a l C r e d i t C o u n c i l f o r m e d the c o r e of the s u r v e y p a n e l . B e g i n n i n g in 1987, the s a m p l e w a s r e d r a w n to i n c l u d e only b a n k s at w h i c h f a r m l o a n s r e p r e s e n t e d 25 p e r c e n t or m o r e of t o t a l loans. As o u t l i n e d a b o v e , the M i n n e a p o l i s s u r v e y w a s c h a n g e d c o n s i d e r a b l y b e g i n n i n g in the f i r s t q u a r t e r of 1994. In r e c e n t s u r v e y s , a b o u t 130 b a n k s r e s p o n d e d . 34 Section III: (continued) Federal R e s e r v e B a n k of D a l l a s . P.O. B o x 6 5 5 9 0 6 . D a l l a s . T e x a s 7 5 2 6 5 - 5 9 0 6 T h e s a m p l e is s t r a t i f i e d r e g i o n a l l y and i n c l u d e s b a n k s at w h i c h farm l o a n s a r e r e l a t i v e l y i m p o r t a n t or w h i c h hold a m a j o r p o r t i o n of b a n k l o a n s in t h e i r r e g i o n . T h e s a m p l e w a s e n l a r g e d in t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r of 1985 and w a s r e d r a w n in t h e s e c o n d q u a r t e r of 1 9 8 9 . T h e r e s u l t s for t h e m o s t r e c e n t q u a r t e r w e r e b a s e d on responses from about 200 the respondents. F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of R i c h m o n d . R i c h m o n d . V i r g i n i a 23261 . „ .. . T h e n u m b e r of a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s in t h i s d i s t r i c t is m u c h s m a l l e r t h a n t h o s e of the o t h e r d i s t r i c t s . When the s u r v e y w a s i n i t i a t e d in 1975, the s a m p l e c o n s i s t e d of 43 b a n k s of all s i z e s ; b a n k s w i t h l a r g e r a m o u n t s of farm l o a n s w e r e s a m p l e d m o r e h e a v i l y . M o r e r e c e n t l y , the s a m p l e h a s c o n s i s t e d of a b o u t 30 b a n k s , r o u g h l y t h r e e - f o u r t h s of w h i c h t y p i c a l l y r e s p o n d to t h e q u a r t e r l y s u r v e y s . RF.CRNT DEVELOPMENTS u 1998, and f u n d s s e e m e d to r e m a i n a d e q u a t e . n iuusLdnuai d i s t r i c t s u r v e y s r e p o r t e d c o n t i n u e d d e t e r i o r a t i o n in rates of r e p a y m e n t , and t h e some w o r s e n i n g in the s e c o n d q u a r t e r as w e l l . T h e r e a l s o w a s an a p p a r e n t p i c k u p and e x t e n s i o n s of l o a n s in all t h e d i s t r i c t s t h a t r e p o r t . Finally, there seemed r e q u i r e m e n t s at a g r i c u l t u r a l b a n k s in all d i s t r i c t s e x c e p t the D a l l a s d i s t r i c t . u o t h e r d i s t r i c t s b e g a n to s h o w in the i n c i d e n c e of r e n e w a l s to b e a p i c k u p in c o l l a t e r a l In g e n e r a l , b a n k e r s in t h e C h i c a g o , D a l l a s , and R i c h m o n d d i s t r i c t s seem a b i t l e s s o p t i m i s t i c a b o u t t h e n e a r t e r m d e m a n d for f a r m l o a n s t h a n t h e y w e r e at at a s i m i l a r point in 1997. T h i s e x p e c t a t i o n of l o w e r v o l u m e s of l o a n s c a r r i e s a c r o s s l i v e s t o c k , c r o p , and e q u i p m e n t l o a n s . While these i n d i c a t o r s are quite noisy from q u a r t e r to q u a r t e r , s u g g e s t i n g that o n e s h o u l d n ' t read too m u c h i n t o the l a t e s t o b s e r v a t i o n , w e n o w h a v e s e v e r a l p e s s i m i s t i c r e a d i n g s in h a n d , and the p e r v a s i v e g l o o m a m o n g a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c e r s s u g g e s t s that i n v e s t m e n t and l e n d i n g in t h e s e c t o r m i g h t s a g in c o m i n g q u a r t e r s . In all the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e d i s t r i c t s t h a t r e p o r t , the ratio of l o a n s to d e p o s i t s h a s b e e n q u i t e h i g h by h i s t o r i c a l s t a n d a r d s for t h e past s e v e r a l y e a r s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , m o s t b a n k e r s s e e m m o r e or l e s s c o m f o r t a b l e w i t h the u p w a r d m o v e m e n t in the l e v e l of l o a n s r e l a t i v e to d e p o s i t s - - f e w r e p o r t e i t h e r t h a t t h e r a t i o is h i g h e r t h a n d e s i r e d or t h a t t h e y h a v e a d j u s t e d t h e i r l o a n g r o w t h by, for e x a m p l e , r e f u s i n g a l o a n b e c a u s e of a lack of f u n d s or r e f e r r i n g a f a r m l o a n to a n o t h e r l e n d e r . Reported that are r a t e s of reported W h i l e the district interest in t h e s e on f a r m l o a n s w e r e m o s t l y u n c h a n g e d in the s e c o n d q u a r t e r s u r v e y s h a v e r e m a i n e d a b o u t flat s i n c e e a r l y 1 9 9 6 . 1998, and the rates year - o v e r - y e a r rate of i n c r e a s e in t h e p r i c e for a g r i c u l t u r a l land w a s 8 p e r c e n t in t h e C h i c a g o land v a l u e s w e r e u n c h a n g e d f r o m the p r e v i o u s q u a r t e r . F u r t h e r m o r e , b a n k e r s e x p e c t a t i o n s for t h e r e f l e c t i n g s o m e m o r e n e g a t i v e a s s e s s m e n t of the s h a r p d e c l i n e s in p r i c e s for f a r m c o m m o d i t i e s . of l o n g e r - run p r o s p e c t s for farm profitability in light of FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.A FARM NONREAL ESTATE LENDING EXPERIENCE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) LOWER III.A1 SAME 1 | I 17 17 I* 49 45 50 34 38 36 1997 Ql. Q2. Q3. Q4. . . . . I | 1 1 io 8 11 14 46 50 47 52 1998 Ql... Q2. . . | 1 8 15 49 44 III.A2 1996 Q2. . . Q3... 04... 1997 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1998 Ql... 02... 1 I 1 III.A3 LOWER HIGHER SAME HIGHER 66 74 58 LOWER ( SAME LOWER HIGHER 19 66 72 77 68 19 11 8 14 27 31 64 65 9 4 1 13 9 24 24 19 1 24 62 68 69 69 24 14 14 20 1 1 1 1 15 17 15 | 14 17 17 11 | | 12 13 64 71 24 16 1 | 11 11 1 44 42 42 34 1 42 42 7 HIGHER 62 69 61 16 8 21 | j 1 1 1 o 89 92 90 10 7 10 | 1 1 1 1 14 13 io 14 69 69 77 72 17 18 13 14 1 j 1 I o 1 0 1 92 89 92 90 8 10 8 9 1 1 8 3 64 64 29 33 1 I 1 1 89 86 11 14 TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK, WY) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 15 14 11 54 60 64 30 26 26 64 57 61 60 28 34 33 34 5 7 69 63 25 30 | j 1 38 22 15 58 65 66 4 13 20 19 14 12 13 1 j | | io 10 7 13 69 76 75 76 | 1 | 1 20 15 | j 15 25 76 72 9 3 6 11 14 57 67 70 37 23 16 | j j 1 0 1 78 84 87 22 16 13 16 13 15 9 74 78 79 79 10 9 7 12 1 j j I o 1 1 0 88 89 91 92 12 10 8 8 1 I 1 6 4 79 74 15 22 1 j 0 50 91 0 9 50 0 1 0 61 65 73 39 34 27 o 1 0 o 74 79 88 82 26 20 12 18 86 82 13 18 21 14 18 12 16 16 12 66 67 71 19 16 17 9 19 21 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 72 67 67 72 12 16 68 69 ~ 1 1 | 1 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( LA*, NM*, TX ) 1996 02... 03... 04... | 1 1 26 24 21 42 44 50 32 32 28 1 1 1 7 8 7 77 75 74 16 16 19 | | j 59 44 31 39 47 53 2 9 17 1 1 1 2 8 io 38 48 51 60 44 40 1 j | 1997 Ql... 02... 03... 04... I 1 1 1 17 18 15 16 55 54 57 58 28 29 28 26 1 1 1 1 4 4 3 3 76 69 80 74 21 27 17 24 | | j 29 13 16 21 56 71 67 60 16 16 17 19 1 1 1 1 14 16 14 15 59 66 71 64 27 17 15 21 1 j | 1 1998 Ql... Q2. . . 1 1 14 24 62 47 24 29 1 1 3 5 76 72 21 24 1 | 16 28 71 64 13 8 1 1 14 io 69 64 16 27 1 j SAME 23 23 19 21 19 18 65 65 71 1 8 9 6 6 I| | | 1 SAME SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI* ) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1996 Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . . . . . LOWER HIGHER COLLATERAL REQUIRED RENEWALS OR EXTENSIONS LOAN REPAYMENT RATE FUND AVAILABILITY DEMAND FOR LOANS 2 0 35 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.A (CONTINUED) FARM NONREAL ESTATE LENDING EXPERIENCE COMPARED WITH NORMAL CONDITIONS (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) LOWER III.A4 SAME LOWER HIGHER SAME 12 18 13 65 61 67 1 io 23 23 15 67 57 65 58 23 20 12 27 1 1 13 15 59 66 28 19 1997 Ql. . Q2. . 03.. 04.. 1 1998 Ql. . Q2. . 1 1 1 1 15 15 17 54 68 64 31 31 19 | | 1 | 1 1 1 1 46 33 31 24 47 59 61 58 7 8 8 18 1 1 j 1 io 5 1 12 57 63 72 70 33 32 18 18 1 1 j 1 1 | 35 44 54 52 11 4 1 1 4 3 64 61 32 36 1 j 1 j j 3 12 3 71 67 85 26 22 12 1 j j 77 77 73 70 15 11 12 18 I 4 9 2 5 77 68 76 60 19 23 22 35 1 1 1 9 11 15 13 j 1 j 8 13 73 73 20 13 1 1 o 73 71 28 23 1 j 1 1998 Ql. . . 02... SAME HIGHER 1 1 o 75 81 85 24 18 15 o 75 80 81 82 25 20 18 18 2 77 70 23 28 0 1 o 0 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MD, NC, SC, VA, WV* ) 17 12 14 1997 Ql. . . 02... 03... Q4... LOWER HIGHER 14 12 21 71 77 76 j SAME 48 69 45 12 12 10 1 LOWER HIGHER, 37 19 34 23 21 20 1 1996 02... 03... 04... SAME NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI* ) 1996 Q2. . Q3. . 04.. III.A5 LOWER HIGHER COLLATERAL REQUIRED RENEWALS OR EXTENSIONS LOAN REPAYMENT RATE FUND AVAILABILITY DEMAND FOR LOANS 1 j 6 17 17 5 78 72 78 5 12 17 | j j 3 13 32 76 68 56 21 18 12 1 j j o 0 2 83 85 93 17 15 5 o 2 18 88 93 88 78 13 5 5 5 1 1 j j 13 16 10 13 81 80 85 70 6 5 5 18 1 j 1 1 o 2 o o 94 91 83 85 6 7 17 15 1° 16 88 77 3 6 1 j 8 80 74 13 19 1 1 3 85 81 13 19 7 6 o • # . . • e # e e # • • # FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.B FARM NONREAL ESTATE LOAN VOLUME EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH VOLUME OF LOANS MADE A YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) TOTAL LOWER SAME Ill Bl FEEDER CATTLE LOWER SAME HIGHER DAIRY LOWER SAME HIGHER CROP STORAGE LOWER SAME HIGHER OPERATING LOWER SAME HIGHER FARM MACHINERY LOWER SAME HIGHER HIGHER SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1996 Q2. . . Q3. . . 04... | | 1 17 17 12 54 55 48 29 28 40 | | | 62 38 27 36 52 59 2 10 15 | 1 | 25 18 22 67 72 69 8 10 9 | | | 33 16 15 57 50 58 10 34 27 | j j 12 21 8 47 50 39 41 29 53 | | j 14 10 12 48 39 42 38 51 46 1997 Ql. . . Q2. . . Q3... 04... | | | 1 8 12 10 9 52 55 61 54 40 33 28 37 | | | | 28 22 23 24 63 64 65 69 9 13 12 8 1 I | | 20 22 24 24 69 69 69 69 10 9 7 7 | | | | 19 17 10 12 69 65 59 62 13 18 31 26 | j | j 8 7 9 5 42 52 59 49 50 41 32 46 | j j j 9 22 12 11 47 53 52 53 45 25 36 36 1998 Ql. . . 02... | 1 11 14 51 59 38 26 | | 33 38 61 59 6 3 | | 22 24 67 68 11 8 | | 13 12 64 64 23 24 | | 7 7 43 51 50 42 | j 17 33 56 56 27 11 | 56 63 76 14 13 5 | | j 22 18 16 42 49 55 36 33 30 | j j 42 25 22 50 55 63 8 20 15 III B2 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 31 20 22 67 74 73 2 7 5 | 30 24 20 j 23 19 17 24 71 76 81 72 6 5 2 4 | j j j 19 9 13 18 74 74 67 68 7 17 21 14 | | | j 17 15 12 11 54 59 66 57 29 25 22 32 | j | j 16 12 16 17 63 63 63 67 21 26 21 16 1 j 17 22 71 78 7 0 | j 17 10 78 76 6 14 | j 15 25 64 51 21 24 | j 21 34 59 57 20 10 1996 02... 03... 04... | | 1 40 19 18 44 58 54 17 23 27 | j | 57 31 24 36 51 56 7 18 20 I 1997 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... | | | 1 16 15 14 14 58 62 68 62 26 22 18 25 | j j j 15 14 15 14 57 63 62 69 28 23 24 17 1 1998 Ql... 02... | 1 16 30 63 50 20 19 | | 25 36 68 56 7 8 j III . B3 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 24 21 19 71 71 75 6 8 6 | j j 18 13 18 68 72 67 14 15 14 7 10 8 58 66 70 35 24 22 17 14 7 60 66 65 22 20 28 j 21 17 19 20 79 80 81 70 0 3 0 10 | j | j 13 15 20 17 82 76 60 79 5 9 20 3 6 5 20 8 63 80 61 66 31 16 20 26 10 5 29 18 65 75 54 66 25 20 17 16 | | 9 15 87 80 4 5 | | 13 17 81 70 6 13 8 10 74 77 18 13 18 29 70 58 13 13 1996 02... 03... 04... | | 1 11 11 7 73 71 81 16 18 12 35 29 23 63 62 75 3 10 3 1 1997 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04. . . | 16 8 14 7 58 80 74 77 26 13 11 17 17 16 21 13 73 81 79 83 10 3 0 4 | 8 18 75 79 17 4 20 27 76 68 4 5 1998 Ql. . . 02... | | 1 | 1 j I 37 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.B (CONTINUED) EXPECTED DEMAND FOR FARM LOANS DURING NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH NORMAL DEMAND (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) FEEDER LIVESTOCK LOWER SAME III.B4 1996 02... Q3. . . Q4... 1 1997 Ql. . . Q2. . . 03... 04... 1 1998 01. .. 02... 1 1 | 1 LOWER SAME HIGHER FARM REAL ESTATE LOWER SAME HIGHER OTHER OPERATING LOWER SAME HIGHER FARM MACHINERY LOWER SAME HIGHER HIGHER , NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI *, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) | 16 17 19 68 73 74 17 10 7 | | | 28 30 30 56 56 60 16 14 10 1 1 1 15 17 10 7 | | j | 12 12 18 18 77 79 73 75 11 9 10 7 1 | | | 21 28 28 24 58 61 58 60 21 11 14 16 1 1 1 1 4 68 | | 18 13 72 80 9 7 | | 26 25 56 58 18 17 1 1 60 51 28 35 41 58 6 8 15 29 32 28 31 56 52 62 63 38 58 18 14 OTHER INTERMEDIATE 1 9 16 14 4 6 7 7 8 8 26 58 54 57 18 22 17 | j 1 j 22 18 25 24 68 75 58 63 10 7 17 14 | | 22 36 63 58 15 7 56 65 72 35 19 14 1 1 j 57 64 67 74 39 30 27 19 65 65 27 27 24 24 • e . e # # e e # • • # FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.C AVERAGE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO AND OTHER INDICATORS OF RELATIVE CREDIT AVAILABILITY (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) AVERAGE LOAN-TODEPOSIT RATIO, END OF QUARTER PERCENT Ill CI LOWER AT THAN DESIRED DESIRED LEVEL 32 33 35 14 17 17 j | | 51 47 43 44 32 32 34 36 17 21 23 21 | j j j I | 43 43 39 34 18 22 | j 66 68 68 1 1997 01. 02. 03. 04. 1 1 1 1 68 70 70 71 1 1 1 69 73 01. . 02. . III ,C2 | 1 1 1 62 64 63 1 1997 01. . 02. . 03.. 04. . 1 1 1 1 62 65 66 66 1 | 1998 01.. 02. . 1 1 66 68 *** *** *** * ** *** www *** *** *** * ** *** *** *** *** *** *** * ** *** *** *** *** * ** * ** * ** *** *** * ** *** *** *** *** * ** *** *** *** 1 I *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 1 1 1 1 I * ** *** *** *** WW* *** *** * ** * ** *** * ** ** * *** I 1 *** *** *** *** *** * ** *** *** 8 12 10 78 78 83 14 10 8 | | j 65 70 71 30 34 33 31 1 j j | 1 2 1 1 89 89 72 69 | | | j 82 82 82 78 11 8 6 7 86 87 87 88 4 5 7 6 1 j j j 69 73 75 73 8 9 6 9 83 82 87 83 9 9 7 8 26 30 1 j 1 2 70 66 | j 78 78 7 0 89 0 4 100 1 j 70 73 8 100 82 0 10 0 11 8 12 78 82 78 12 9 10 l I *** 7 10 10 73 75 75 19 16 14 13 12 14 9 83 85 78 84 4 3 8 7 12 12 21 12 74 81 72 80 14 7 6 8 18 9 75 84 8 7 17 9 69 80 14 11 1 78 72 55 51 8 9 8 7 1 1 53 52 8 8 j ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( LA*, NM*, TX) 1 49 52 54 50 *** 49 52 * ** *** *** 5 5 4 1997 1 *** *** 86 83 86 * ** 1 *** *** 9 12 10 * ** 1998 01. . 02. . ** * 79 83 82 *** 1 *** | j j | *** 1 NONE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER LOWER SAME HIGHER 79 84 89 26 32 30 51 52 49 1 COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER HIGHER LOWER SAME 4 3 2 9 9 10 1 1 1 01. . | 76 72 74 1996 02. . 03. . 04. . 02. . 03. . 04. . NONE NONBANK AGENCIES TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK, WY) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1996 02. . 03. . 04. . III ,C3 CORRESPONDENT BANKS *** 54 50 48 1 1 1 1998 HIGHER THAN DESIRED NUMBER OF FARM LOAN REFERRALS TO ACTIVELY SEEKING NEW FARM LOAN ACCOUNTS SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1996 02. . 03. . 04. . . . . . REFUSED OR REDUCED A FARM LOAN BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF LOANABLE FUNDS LOAN/DEPOSIT RATIO IS * ** 1 I *** 1 *** I *** * ** 1 I I *** I 1 1 2 2 *** 1 2 1 1 *** 0 4 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** l l I *** l l I *** 1 *** 39 40 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.C (CONTINUED) AVERAGE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO AND OTHER INDICATORS OF RELATIVE CREDIT AVAILABILITY (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) AVERAGE LOAN-TODEPOSIT RATIO, END OF QUARTER PERCENT Ill C4 LOWER AT DESIRED THAN DESIRED LEVEL HIGHER THAN DESIRED NUMBER OF FARM LOAN REFERRALS TO ACTIVELY SEEKING NEW FARM LOAN ACCOUNTS CORRESPONDENT BANKS NONBANK AGENCIES COMPARED WITH NORMAL NUMBER LOWER SAME HIGHER NONE NONE COMPARED WITH NORMAL NUMBER LOWER SAME HIGHER NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) *** *** *** 1996 Q2. . . 03... 04... 1 1 1 71 73 69 1997 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 73 74 72 72 1 | | 1 | | 1 1998 Ql. . . 02... 1 1 73 74 | 1 | j III .C5 REFUSED OR REDUCED A FARM LOAN BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF LOANABLE FUNDS LOAN/DEPOSIT RATIO IS * ** www www www WW* www I I I 7 7 7 WW * WW* WW* *** www www www www www www www 1 j J I 10 11 12 13 www www www www WW* www www 1 | 7 12 *** WW* *** *** *** WW* WW* 35+ 33 38 57 64 56 8 3 6 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 35 31 35 35 63 60 59 61 2 9 6 4 I www 1 1 1 *** *** 1 1 34 29 62 66 4 5 1 1 51 59 54 16 9 6 www www w** *** 52 55 58 52 18 13 10 12 *** WW* 1 1 1 58 62 14 11 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MD, NC, sc, VA, WV*) 1996 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 73 73 71 45 31 39 40 56 50 15 13 11 I I I 0 0 0 71 75 82 | | | 89 88 91 2 2 0 9 11 7 0 0 2 1 j j 80 80 79 4 4 0 13 14 21 4 2 0 1997 Ql. . • 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 72 74 72 73 36 39 45 41 50 49 53 51 14 12 3 8 I j 77 82 80 73 | | j j 85 91 85 87 5 0 0 0 10 9 15 13 0 0 0 0 | | j 0 2 2 0 j 83 86 78 74 3 0 0 0 10 14 23 15 5 0 0 10 1998 Ql... Q2... 1 1 72 73 46 48 41 48 14 3 | j 0 0 78 81 | j 92 93 0 0 8 7 0 0 | j 83 100 3 0 8 0 6 0 •Beginning in 1994, Minneapolis omitted the response "none" for the number of referrals to either correspondent banks or nonbank agencies. The column that has been added combines responses that formerly would have been reported as either "none" or "low". FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.D INTEREST RATES ON FARM LOANS MOST COMMON INTEREST RATE ON FARM LOANS (AVERAGE, PERCENT) FEEDER CATTLE LOANS III.D1 1 j 1997 Q l . . . Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 j 1998 Q l . . . Q2. . . 1 1 1 j | LOWER LOWER SAME HIGHER *** *** *** *** *** *** .6 ,7 9. 9 ,7 .6 9, 9,,7 9,.7 9,.7 9,,6 * * * * 8, ,8 8. ,8 8. .8 8. ,7 www *** *** *** *** *** *** www *** *** WW* www ,5 9, .5 9,.5 9,,5 * * 8, ,4 8. ,5 www www www www www www (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (CO, KS, M O * , 9 1996 Q 2 . . . Q3. . . Q4. . . INTERMEDIATE-TERM NONREAL ESTATE LOANS *** *** *** 1 1 III.D2 SHORT-TERM NONREAL ESTATE LOANS 8. ,8 8, ,8 8, ,7 1997 Q l . . . Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS * * * .7 .7 .6 9 1 INTERMEDIATE NONREAL ESTATE 9. .7 9,.7 9,,6 1 1 1 1998 Ql.. . Q2. . . SHORTTERM NONREAL ESTATE SAME LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS HIGHER LOWER SAME HIGHER SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1996 Q 2 . . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 OTHER OPERATING LOANS AVERAGE INTEREST RATE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER COMPARED WITH AVERAGE RATES IN THE CURRENT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) 9 9 9 TENTH .9 9, .9 9 , 8 10,.0 10,,0 10,,0 * * * * * * .9 9. 9, ,9 9 .9 9, 8 . 10,.0 10,.1 10,.1 10,.0 * * * * ,8 9 .8 9, .9 9, .9 9 9 * * * * * * * * NE, N M * , I j j | j I I *** *** www *** *** *** *** *** *** | j j *** WW* www www *** WWW www www *** *** www www | www www | *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** www *** *** *** www *** *** www *** *** *** www www www www www I j www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www I www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www I j www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www I j www www www www www www OK) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 9, ,9 9, ,9 9, .9 9.4 9.4 9.3 www www www www www www www www www I 9, .9 9, .9 9, .9 9, 8 , 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.3 www www www www www www www www www www www www I 9, .8 9 .8 9.2 9.2 www www www j I j j 41 42 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.D (CONTINUED) INTEREST RATES ON FARM LOANS AVERAGE INTEREST RATE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER COMPARED WITH AVERAGE RATES IN THE CURRENT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) MOST COMMON INTEREST RATE ON FARM LOANS (AVERAGE, PERCENT) FEEDER CATTLE LOANS III.D3 OTHER OPERATING LOANS SHORTTERM NONREAL ESTATE INTERMEDIATE NONREAL ESTATE LOWER SAME LOWER HIGHER | | | *** *** *** ,0 10, 10. ,0 10, ,0 * * * * * * 10.0 10.0 10.0 ,3 9, ,4 9, ,4 9, | j | *** *** 1997 Ql... 02... 03... 04... | | | | *** * * *** *** 10, .0 10, .0 .8 9, 10, .0 * * * * * * * * 10.0 10.1 9.7 10.0 9, 3 . .6 9, .3 9, .4 9, | | | | *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 1998 Ql... 02... | | *** *** 9, .9 9, .9 * * * * 9.8 9.8 9, .4 .7 9, 1 | *** *** *** www www *** *** *** www *** *** *** www | j j 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 * ** *** * * 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.9 | j j *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** www 1997 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... | j j j 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 * ** *** *** * * 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.7 | j j j www www www www www www www www J j 1 1998 Ql. . . 02. . . | j 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.5 * * *** 10.4 10.2 9.7 9.6 | j www www www 1997 Ql.. Q2. 03. 04. 1998 Ql.. 02.. SAME *** *** WW* www WWW | WW* *** j *** J www www www | J J 1 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 1 *** *** *** *** *** *** j 1 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** www www www www 1996 Q2. . Q3. . 04., LOWER HIGHER HIGHER | *** 1 *** *** *** www j J j j *** *** *** www www *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** www ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 1996 02... 03. . . 04... III.D5 SAME NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) 1996 02... 03... 04... III.D4 LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS INTERMEDIATE-TERM NONREAL ESTATE LOANS SHORT-TERM NONREAL ESTATE LOANS LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS *** *** FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 9.9 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 10, 9, 9.7 9.7 *** j | www www www * * * www www *** *** *** www www www www www | J www www www www www www www www j www * * * *** www j * * * * * * *** www | * * * * * * J j www *** www www www www www www *** *** FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.E TRENDS IN FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES AND LOAN VOLUME EXPECTED TREND IN FARM REAL ESTATE LOAN VOLUME DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) MARKET VALUE OF GOOD FARMLAND ALL III.El DRYLAND IRRIGATED TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM A YEAR EARLIER PERCENTAGE CHANGE DURING QUARTER RANCHLAND ALL DRYLAND IRRIGATED RANCHLAND DOWN STABLE LOWER UP SAME HIGHER SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS www www WWW WWW | | | 1 1 6 42 35 61 57 64 33 1 | | 11 9 16 63 58 59 26 33 25 1 *** *** WWW www WWW | | | 2 1 2 2 *** www www www *** www www www www www www WWW | j j j 9 8 7 10 WWW *** WW* * ** www *** www *** www www *** www | j j j 2 8 2 2 64 64 60 62 34 27 38 36 1 1 I I 11 20 12 11 61 63 62 62 29 17 26 27 | | 2 0 www WWW www www www WWW | | 10 3 *** WW* www *** www *** | I 10 17 76 67 15 16 1 1 17 25 57 61 26 14 1996 Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4... | | j 1997 Ql..• Q2 . . . Q3. . . Q4... | 1998 Ql... 02... III.E2 H WW* www 12 *** *** 1Q WW* FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 1996 Q2. . . 03... Q4. . . 1 j j 3 3 -15 ** ** ** 1997 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4... | j j 16 3 12 5 1998 Ql... Q2. . . 1 | -1 3 III.E3 j j | www WW* www www www www WWW WWW www | j j 2 3 0 86 82 83 12 15 17 1 j j 16 10 5 75 80 90 9 10 5 www WW* * ** WW* www www WWW www www WWW WWW WWW | j j | 2 5 5 5 81 77 80 88 17 18 15 8 1 j j j n 80 80 79 77 9 11 8 5 *** * ** *** *w* WW* www | | 3 10 74 81 23 10 1 j 16 20 70 67 14 13 www ** ** ** ** www | www 1 I | 4 4 13 41 ** ** www www | j 19 20 9 13 18 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 1996 Q2... Q3. . . Q4. . . -0 2 1 -0 -1 1 -1 -o 4 1997 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 -1 -0 2 3 0 0 1 1998 Ql... Q2. . . -1 -0 -2 -4 -1 3 www 1 | 1 I 1 1 I 1 www -3 -0 1 -5 -3 -2 -10 -13 2 | j j | j j 38 24 17 52 62 69 3 3 1 2 -2 2 -3 4 -1 11 -13 1 I | 3 3 5 5 1 4 1 1 | j j | j | j 15 12 10 15 65 72 77 69 -0 1 -0 -4 3 3 | j | | 12 24 73 66 44 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.E (CONTINUED) T R E N D S IN F A R M R E A L E S T A T E V A L U E S A N D L O A N V O L U M E M A R K E T VALUE OF GOOD FARMLAND PERCENTAGE CHANGE DURING QUARTER ALL DRYLAND IRRIGATED RANCHLAND TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM A YEAR EARLIER ALL DRYLAND IRRIGATED RANCHLAND DOWN STABLE III.E4 TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL R E S E R V E DISTRICT (CO, KS, M O * , N E , N M * , OK, W Y ) III.E5 NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MI*, M N , MT, ND, 1996 Q2. 03. Q4. 1997 Q l . Q2. Q3. Q4. 1998 Ql. Q2. 1996 Q 2 . . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 5 4 5 4 3 5 2 3 4 | | | 1997 Q l . . . Q2. . . 03... Q4. . . 4 2 4 3 6 4 3 3 3 4 2 3 | | | | 1998 Q l . . . 02... 7 5 6 3 7 5 | | SD, W I * ) UP E X P E C T E D D E M A N D FOR FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH NORMAL (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) LOWER SAME HIGHER
