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E.15 (125) , r rnv'f QOKF-0 -Vv.-.i---Y AGRICULTURAL FINANCE DATABOOK Third Quarter 1994 Guide to internal tables of contents and notes on sources Amount and characteristics of farm loans made by commercial banks . . Page 3 Selected statistics from the quarterly reports of condition of commercial banks Reserve bank surveys of farm credit conditions and farm land values . . Division of Research and Statistics Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Washington, D.C. 20551 Nicholas A. Walraven and Michele Ricci 17 28 2 General Inforn.ition Federal Reserve System or Federal Reserve Banks. Other portions of the data come from the quarterly call report data of commercial banks or from the reports of other financial institutions involved m a g r i c u l t u r a l lending. When the current issue went to press, data from the survey of terms of b a n k lending were a v a i l a b l e for the third quarter of 1994; the other data generally were available midyear. Parts or all of the Agricultural Finance Databook may be copied and distributed freely.^ Any r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of selected parts of the Databook should be accompanied by the "contents" pages at the b e g i n n i n g of the corresponding section, together with the front cover identifying the Databook and date of issue, and this page providing subscription information. Remaining questions may be addressed to N i c h o l a s W a l r a v e n or M i c h e l e Ricci at the address shown on the cover. The D a t a b o o k is furnished on a complimentary basis to college and university teachers, libraries of educational institutions, government departments and agencies, and public libraries. Others should enclose the annual subscription fee of $5.00. New subscriptions to the D a t a b o o k (including zip code) to: (Statistical Release E.15) may be entered by sending a mailing address Publications Services, Mail Stop Federal Reserve Board Washington, D = C. 20551 138 Notice of change of address also should be sent to Publications Services. the old address should be included. A copy of the back cover s h o w i n g SECTION I: A M O U N T AND CHARACTERISTICS OF FARM LOANS M A D E BY COMMERCIAL BANKS Estimates from the quarterly survey of nonreal estate farm loans Summary charts . Page . . . 5 Tables: I.A I. B IcC I.D I.E 1, F I.G I.H I.I Number Average size . . . . Amount Average maturity. A v e r a g e effective interest Percentage of loans with a Distribution of farm loans Detailed survey results Regional disaggregation of . . « . , . . . . . 7 8 . . 9 10 . . . . . rate floating interest rate by effective interest rate survey results.... 11 12 13 14 16 SOURCES OF DATA: These data on the farm loans of $1000 or more made by commercial banks are derived from quarterly sample surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve System during the first full week of the second m o n t h of each quarter. Data obtained from the sample are expanded into national estimates for all c o m m e r c i a l banks, w h i c h are shown in the following tables. Before August 1989, the farm loan survey was part of a broader survey of the terms of lending by a sample of 340 commercial banks. A subset of 250 banks was asked for information regarding a g r i c u l t u r a l lending, and about 150 typically reported at least one farm loan. Since August of 1989, the data have been drawn from a redesigned sample of 250 banks that is no longer part of the broader survey. In the redesigned sample, banks are stratified according to their volume of farm lending; previously, they had been stratified according to the volume of business loans. As before, however, the sample data are being expanded into national estimates for all commercial banks. In the August 1994 survey, 217 banks reported at least one farm loan, and the number of sample loans totaled 5486. In both the previous survey and the new one, the national estimates exhibit v a r i a b i l i t y due to sampling error. The estimates are sensitive to the occasional appearance of very large loans in the sample. In addition, the b r e a k d o w n of national estimates into those for large banks and small banks may have b e e n affected somewhat by the new sampling procedures that were implemented in August 1989; apparent shifts in the data as of that date should be treated with caution. 3 SECTION I: (CONTINUED) More detailed results from each quarterly survey previously were published in Statistical Release E.2A, "Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers". Beginning in February, 1992, the more detailed results are included at the end of this section of the Databook. and the E2.A has been discontinued. Starting with the August 1986 survey, farm loans secured by real estate are included in the data shown in the table of detailed results, w h e r e a s such loans are excluded from the tabulations in Tables I.A through I.G and the summary charts. Beginning in November 1991, several survey statistics are estimated for each of ten farm production regions as defined by the USDA. These statistics, which are presented in table I.I, should be treated with some caution. Although an effort was made to choose a good regional mix of banks for the panel, the panel has never been stratified by region. Consequently, the survey results are less precise for each region than for the totals for the nation. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: In the August 1994 survey, the estimated number of nonreal estate farm loans made by banks fell b a c k to about the m i d d l e of the range seen since 1989. The average size of loans in the first full w e e k of August was about $31,000, a bit b e l o w the average that has prevailed for the past couple of years. The total estimated volume of loans closed during the first w e e k of August was a shade below the average seen in recent years. In the August survey, the average effective rate of interest on nonreal estate farm loans edged up 10 basis points to 7.9 percent. The increase in August, along with the sharp increase that was recorded in the May survey, left rates of interest on farm loans at the highest level since the first h a l f of 1992. Estimated average rates increased for all sizes of loans and for all types, except those for operating expenses. In the August survey, the percentage of loans that were made with a rate of interest that floats was 79 percent, roughly in line with the upward trend seen since the survey began. The overall weighted average rate of interest including real estate loans rose 17 basis points in the August survey. The standard error of the w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e rate of interest rose sharply as well, likely reflecting the varying rates at which the banks in the survey passed along increases in economy-wide rates of interest. Table I.G offers a historical perspective on changes in the dispersion of rates of interest for nonreal estate loans. The average rate of interest charged for farm loans rose in most areas--the m a g n i t u d e of the increases ranged from about 50 basis points in the Northern Plains to 10 basis points in the M o u n t a i n States. Rates declined in the Lake States and in the Delta States. Chart 1 Results from the Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers Millions, Annual Rate 5.0 Number of nonreal estate farm loans 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 — Four quarter moving average 1.5 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 i . i i i • • i i 1990 1991 1992 1993 1.0 1994 Thousands of dollars 45 Average size of nonreal estate farm loans 40 35 30 -- Four quarter moving average 25 20 15 1978 ' 1979 ' 1980 ' 1981 ' 1982 i ... i ••• i 1983 1984 I 1985 1986 . . . 1987 i . . . 1988 I . . . 1989 I • i i 1990 L_ 1991 1992 1993 1994 Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate 10 110 Amount of nonreal estate farm loans 100 90 80 Four quarter moving average 70 60 50 40 1978 1979 1980 1981 i. i • i • • i i • • • i • • • i • • • i • i i I 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 30 Chart 2 Results from the Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers Months Average maturity of nonreal estate farm loans — Four quarter moving average 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Average effective interest rate on nonreal estate farm loans . . . i ... i ... i ... i ... i ... i ... i ... i ••• i • • • i ... i ... i ... i •• • i 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Percent Share of farm loans with a floating interest rate 100 40 — Four quarter moving average 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 i ••• ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NONREAL ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.A NUMBER OF LOANS MADE (MILLIONS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($1,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN FEEDER LIVESTOCK ALL LOANS OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT OTHER 1 to 9 0. 30 0 .39 0. 35 0 .36 0. 17 0 . 14 0., 14 0., 16 0.. 19 0., 17 0.,18 0.. 18 0. 35 0 .32 . 0 .35 0.,27 0.,24 0, . 19 0.,21 0..20 0 .19 . 0.,21 0.,24 0..27 2 ,14 . 2 ,32 . 2 .42 . 2 .06 . 1 .71 . 1 .57 . 1 .42 , 1 .67 , 1 .70 , ,66 1. 1 .67 . 1 .65 . BY SIZE OF BANK 10 to 24 25 to 99 100 and over 0 .67 0 .60 0 .53 0 .51 0 .46 0 .46 0 .43 0 .52 0 .49 0 .51 0 .54 0 .56 0 .40 0 ,38 . 0 ,40 . 0 ,30 . 0 ,29 . 0 ,27 . 0 .28 . 0 ,31 . 0 .35 . 0 .32 . 0 .36 , 0 .37 . 0 .09 0 .11 .09 0. 0 ,09 . 0 ,08 . 0 ,08 . 0 ,07 . . 0 .09 0 .09 « 0 .10 . 0 .11 . 0 .12 , LARGE OTHER 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 I 0 .22 0 ,20 . 0 ,18 . 0 ,18 . 0 ,20 . 0 ,20 . 0 ,23 . 0 .36 « 0..44 0 .50 . 0 .51 . 0,.55 3. 08 3 .21 3 .26 2. 78 2 .34 2 .18 1. 99 2.,23 2.,20 2 . 10 2 . 17 , 15 2. ANNUAL NUMBER OF LOANS MADE 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1 988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 3 30 3 41 3 44 2 96 2 55 2 ,. 38 2..21 2., 60 2., 63 2 ,. 60 2 .. 68 2 .70 , I 1 1 ! i 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 0 .33 0 .37 0 .34 0.34 0 .30 o .39 0 .29 o .30 o .32 0 .35 0 .35 0 .36 0 26 0 32 0 29 0 23 0 17 0 .13 0 .11 0 .20 0 .24 0 .23 0 .25 0 .27 2 06 2 00 2 06 1 77 1 66 1 .54 . 1 .45 . 1 ,73 . 1 ,69 1 .64 1 ,67 . 1 ,62 . LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE NUMBER OF • 1992 03... Q4... I I 2 .76 , 2 ., 64 1 1 0 .32 0 .43 0 .17 . 0 ,30 . 1 .78 1 .52 0,.20 0,. 19 0..29 0..20 1 .82 1 .57 0 .51 0 .53 0 .34 . 0 .40 0 .09 0 . 13 1 1 0 .58 o .48 2 . 17 2 . 16 1993 Ql... 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 2 .74 . 2 .90 . 2.. 68 2 .49 1 1 1 ! 0 .39 0 .34 0 .28 0.43 0 ,27 . 0.,28 0.,20 0 ,32 . 1 .62 1 .86 1 .70 1 .31 0,.23 0,. 19 0,. 16 0,. 14 0,.23 0,.22 0,.34 0 . 30 1 .62 1 .89 1 .68 1 .40 0 .55 0. 58 0 .57 0 .53 0 .42 0 .32 0 .33 0 .41 0 .14 0 .10 0 .11 0 .14 1 I 1 1 o .48 o .53 0 .63 0 .58 2..26 2 .37 2 .05 1 . 91 1994 Ql... 02... 03... 1 1 1 2 .44 3 . 18 2 . 66 1 1 1 0 .28 0 .30 0 .21 0 .33 . 0..25 0 . 16 1 .40 2 .06 1 .79 0 .21 0 .25 0 . 16 0 .22 0 . 32 0 .34 1 .44 1 .97 1 .71 0 .50 0 ,65 . 0 ,52 . 0 .38 0 .42 0 .33 0 . 12 0 .15 0 .09 1 1 I 0 .48 0 .66 0 .62 1 .96 2 . 52 • 2. 04 7 8 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NONREAL ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.B AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE (THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES BY SIZE OF BANK BY SIZE OF LOAN ($1,000s) FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 to 9 OTHER 10 to 24 25 to 99 100 and over 14 .6 14. 8 14..7 14 ,4 . 14 ,9 . 14 .7 . 14 ,8 « 14.,7 14 .8 , 14 . 9 14 .8 14 .9 46. 1 46. 3 43 ,8 . 45.,5 44.,9 46..5 45..2 45,,9 46,. 1 46 . 6 45 .9 46 . 1 326 294 291 255 280 320 320 272 488 540 468 490 LARGE OTHER I I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 97 .8 . 92 .0 , 88 .1 , 82 .0 , 62 .0 85 .5 70 .0 53 .7 100 .7 107 .0 97 .0 106 .0 14 .4 15..2 13 > .8 13..4 15..3 14..9 16,.3 14 .4 , 13 .9 13 .9 15 .8 15 .8 ANNUAL AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. 1989. 1990. 1991. 1992. 1993. 20.0 19.7 17 .7 17.6 19.0 20.8 21.8 19 28 31 31 34 41.5 32.5 31.8 25.7 35.0 33.8 34.1 42.7 69.7 61.0 68.3 79.7 17.5 18.2 21.9 22.5 25.8 26.3 40.6 29.5 22.7 25.2 26.9 23.1 13.6 15.5 12.9 12.8 14.0 14.6 16.7 14.1 15.7 15.6 14.7 15.2 17.6 15.6 12 12 1.3 16 13 12 . 1 11.9 15 , 1 16,0 13.9 38 .9 37 . 1 34 ,8 . 42 . 1 32 .9 . 44 .6 , 34 ,7 , 32 .2 94 .3 129 .7 108 .8 112 .0 I I 1 1 1 I I I I 1 I I 3 ,7 . 3 ,6 . 3 ,7 . 3 ,5 , 3 .5 . 3 .6 . 3.7 3.6 3.6 3. 6 3. 7 3 .7 AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1992 Q3 Q4 1993 Q1 02 9 1 63 ,8 . ,5 143 . I I 3 ,5 . 4 ,0 . 14 .7 14 ,9 . 45. 0 44. 6 432 503 I I 72 ,1 . 120..1 12 ,6 . 19 ,0 . 2 8 7 3 120,.2 138,.6 82 .3 119 .9 1 ! 1 1 3 .7 , 3.9 , 3 .5 . 3 .8 15..3 14..8 14,.9 14,.7 45.,5 44 ,8 . 46..8 47 .3 , 441 577 476 488 1 I | I 111,.1 112,.6 83.7 119 .6 19 .0 . 12 .8 . 13 .8 , 17 .8 5 0 7 106 .5 97 .5 107 .8 I I 1 3.6 3 .9 3 .5 14 .7 14 .4 14 .4 48 .5 46 .0 46 .0 445 378 588 1 1 I 102 .8 77 .6 98 .1 18 .1 16 .1 11 .0 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NONREAL. ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE X.C AMOUNT OF LOANS MADE (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK ANNUAL ANL 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987... 1988... 198 9 199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 66.0 67.3 60.8 52 48 49 48 51.6 74.7 13.6 12 . 1 10.7 8.6 10.4 13.2 10.0 12.9 22.0 82.8 21 , 83.7 92.6 23 , 28.7 4. 5 5.9 6. 5 OTHER CURRENT OPERATING FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 to 9 OTHER 10 to 24 25 to 99 BY SIZE OF BANK and LARGE OTHER 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 21 .7 18 .6 15 .8 14 .9 12,.6 17,. 1 15,.9 19..6 44.,2 53.,7 49.4 58.8 44 .3 48 .7 45 .0 37 .3 35 . 9 32 .5 , 32 , ,3 32 ,0 , 3Q<, 5 29,,1 34 ,.3 33 .,8 »OANS MADE .1 ,1 .5 22 . 6 23 . 2 22 , 5 24 , 3 24 > 3 26 » 6 25 . 5 24 . 6 .7 5- 4 6. 1 4. 4 4. 4 2, 4 2. 3 1. •9 .0 2, 2. 3 2 .5 2 .9 2 ,5 1 3. 4 1 1. 9 12 . 2 1 1. 3 8. 0 S. 3 7: ,4 6 :,4 18 . ,3 27 ,6 26. 0 30 .6 ! 1 i ! 1 1 ! 1 I 1 I 1 7.9 8 .4 8 ,9 7.2 6 .0 5 .7 5. 2 6• 1 6 .. 1 6 ,- 1 6 .2 6 .1 9. 8 9, 0 7 .8 7. 4 6. ,9 6, .8 6: 4 7 ,7 < 7 ,3 < 7, .6 8. 0 8. 3 18 .2 17 , 5 17 . 6 13 . 5 13 . 2 12 ., 6 12 ,9 1 4,<4 15 : ,9 15,, 1 16. 7 17 .1 30 ,0 32 . 4 26 . 5 24 . 0 22.. 3 ,5 24 , 2 3 ,1 s 23 ., 4 45,,3 54, 0 52. 8 61. 0 AMOUNT OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1992 Q3. 04. 2 .5 2 .7 18 .2 28 . 9 1 1 6 .4 6 .2 7 .4 8 .0 15 . 1 40 .4 17 .9 66 .5 1 1 42 .1 57 .4 27 .4 41 .2 3 ,5 2 ,4 . 2 ,4 , 1«.7 27 .6 30 . 8 28,. 2 35.,6 1 1 1 1 5 .9 7 .3 5., 8 5,.4 8 .5 8 .6 8. 5 7 ,8 , 19,,2 14,,5 15,,2 19,, 6 62 .4 59 .3 51,.7 70,.7 1 1 1 1 53,,2 59,,4 53,.1 69,,5 42 . 8 30 .4 28 ,2 34,.0 4,,5 4. 7 2 .0 23 ,,7 30,,7 36. 4 1 1 I 5,,2 7,,7 5,,9 7 ,4 < 9,,3 1 .,5 18. 3 19. 2 15. 0 54,,3 55,.7 54. 4 1 1 1 49.9 51.5 60.4 35,. 4 40,,5 22 .,5 9 10 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NONREAL ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.D AVERAGE MATURITY OF LOANS MADE (MONTHS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($1,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 Co 9 OTHER BY SIZE OF BANK 10 to 24 25 to 99 100 and over 7 .0 , 8.. 1 7 .5 , 7 .7 . 8..0 8,. 1 9,.2 8..3 9,,2 8. ,3 9.,1 10,,0 6 ,6 , 8. ,1 7 .7 . 9. 1 9 .8 . 9 ,3 . 10 .2 . 9 .3 . 11 .9 . 10 .6 11 .. 1 11.. 1 6.- 4 10,.0 8 .0 , 7 .9 . 7. ,1 8,.3 , 7 .7 7 .1 , 4..9 5..8 , 7 .2 , 7 .4 LARGE OTHER ANNUAL AVERAGE MATURITY 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 6.5 8 .9 7 .7 8 .0 8 .0 8 .4 8 .7 8 .1 7 .5 7 .3 8 .9 9,.2 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5.1 5 5 5 0 6 1 5.8 5.5 6.4 6.8 6.0 7 6. 6 .1 7 .3 7 .0 8 .1 6 .6 7 .8 6 .3 7 .7 4 .7 7 .4 , 8 .8 . 8 .5 . 9 .5 , 9 .6 . 7 1 10. 4 7 8 7 3 7. 6 7 .6 8. 5 7 .2 7 .5 7. 2 8. 6 8. 3 8 .4 10 ,6 . 12 ,6 . 13 .4 . 21 .0 . 22 .8 19 ,8 18 .7 . 21 .9 24 .6 . 20 .1 30 .4 5..4 7 ,8 , 8.. 1 8..8 8,.8 12 .. 1 10..9 11.. 8 6.. 4 5,,3 9 ,4 < 9,.4 1 1 i 6,,0 7..0 7 .0 6 .7 6 .8 7 .5 , 7. 1 7 .4 . 7 .4 7 .7 8 .3 8 .5 . I | 1 | 1 I 1 I I 1 | 1 6 .0 , 6, 1 7 .0 , 6,,9 5,,5 5,,9 8. ,1 7 .8 , 4 .7 . 5,.2 6,.4 6,.4 6,.7 9..9 , 7 .9 8 .4 , 8 .8 , , 9 .3 8 .8 , 8 .2 , 10,.2 9,.6 10 .1 , 10 .4 , MATURITY OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER,, ANNUAL RATE 1992 Q3... 04... 1 i 8,.8 7 .7 1 1 5 .1 6 .3 12 .5 , 9 .9 , 7 .0 7 .8 19 .7 19 .5 14..3 4..4 7 .5 7 .1 9.. 3 8,,7 10 .2 , 10 .6 . 7 .7 , 6 .0 , I I 6,.8 4,.5 9 .8 , 9,.1 1993 01... 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 i 9 .9 10 .1 . 9,.8 7 .4 . 1 1 1 1 6 6 9 7 .8 .5 .2 .0 11 .4 , 8 .8 . 8 .2 . 9 .9 , 8. 9 8. 7 8. 1 7 .2 32 34 24 29 .5 .0 .5 .0 8,.0 15.,6 11.,0 3 .8 . 8 .6 9,.7 7 .3 . 8 .0 . 10 .. 8 10,,0 10.. 6 8,.8 11 .9 , 12 ,6 , 9,.8 10 .3 , 7 ,5 , 7. ,9 9,.7 5,. 1 I I | 1 5,.9 5,.9 9 .7 , 4,.7 10 .8 , 11 .4 . 9 .9 , 9 .3 , 1994 oi... i i 10 ., 1 13 .0 , 9 .3 . 1 1 1 6 .9 8 .4 9 .4 8 .3 . 9 .5 . 16 .2 . 8. 9 10. 5 6. 8 6., 6 10.,8 7 .9 . 8 ,6 , 9 .5 . 8, .1 12 >. 7 13 . 3 9..2 13 ,9 , 14 ,2 , 13 ,2 , 6. ,6 10,.7 6,.8 I 1 I 4,.5 7 .0 , 5,.9 12 .8 , 15 .0 , 11..5 03 . . . ! 32 .0 45 .7 32 .3 ! ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NONREAL ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.E AVERAGE EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATE ON LOANS MADE BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 to 9 OTHER BY SIZE OF BANK 10 to 24 25 to 99 100 and over 16., 8 14 , .1 14 .. 3 13 ,2 . 12 .0 . 11 .3 . 11 .. 6 12 .7 . 12 .. 4 11.,2 9.. 3 8,,7 17 .0 . 14 .0 , 14 .3 , 13 .2 . 11 ., 8 11 ,. 1 11 .4 , 12 .7 12 .1 10 .7 8 .8 8 .3 16 .4 13 ,0 . 13 ,7 . 12 , .1 10., 8 9..9 10..8 12 .2 . 10..9 9.,2 7, .1 6..9 LARGE OTHER i I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 16.1 12 .1 . 13 ,. 1 11.2 9., 6 9.2 10.,2 12., 1 10.,9 9..0 6..8 6..7 17 .0 . 14 .1 , 14 .4 , 13 . .4 12 , .1 11 .3 . 11 .6 . 12 .7 , 12 .3 11 .3 9 .4 8 .7 ANNUAL AVERAGE INTEREST RATE 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992, 1993 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 7 13 5 14 1 12 8 11 5 10 .6 . 11 .2 • 12 .5 . 11 .4 . 9 .8 , 7 .8 . 7 .5 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 15 9 13 6 13 7 12 5 11 1 10 .7 , 10 ., 9 12 ., 3 11 .• 5 10.. 2 8 .2 , 8,.0 16 3 13 8 14 3 12 7 11 9 10 .2 11 .9 12 .4 12 .0 11 ,0 8. 6 8 .1 16 9 13 5 14 2 13 0 11 5 10 ., 8 11 .2 . 12 ., 6 11 .7 , 10.. 4 8. 8 8,. 1 17 .1 14 .3 14 .6 13 .7 12 .2 11 .5 11 .7 12 .8 12 .3 11 .3 9 .3 8 .7 16 .9 12 .8 14 . 0 12 . 1 11 .2 . 9.,5 10..7 12 .3 . 10.,7 8. 6 6..3 6..2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 17 ,0 , 14 .2 . 14 .6 . 13 .1 . 12 ,4 . 11 .6 , 11 .7 , 12 .8 , 12 ,5 , 11 .5 . 9 .7 . 9 .0 , AVERAGE RATE ON LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1992 03... 04... 1 1 7 .8 , 7 .4 I 1 8,.0 8,.0 8 .4 8 .0 8,. 6 8,. 4 9 .2 8 .7 6..4 5..5 1 1 9 .5 , 9 .4 9,.0 9,.0 8 .6 8 .5 7,. 1 6,.7 1 1 6,.8 6,.3 9 .4 8 .9 1993 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... 1 I 1 I 7 .6 7 .5 7 .5 7 .3 . 1 1 1 1 7 .9 . 8,.1 8,.0 8. 1 8 .9 8 .2 7 .9 7 .7 8 .3 8. 1 8 .2 7 .8 8 .8 8..6 9 .0 8. .4 6.. 1 6..2 6..4 6,.1 1 1 1 1 9 .2 9 .0 9 .0 8 .9 8 .8 8. 8 8. 6 8 .5 8 .4 8 .4 8 .1 8 .2 7 .0 6 .9 7 .0 6 .8 1 1 1 I 6,. 6 6,.7 7 .0 6,.7 8 .8 8 .9 8 .6 8 .6 1994 01... 02... 03... I 1 1 7 .3 7 .8 7 .9 I 1 1 7 .7 8 .1 8 .7 7 .3 8 .1 8 .4 7 .9 8 .5 8 .4 8 .2 . 8 .6 . 9 .0 . 6,. 1 6.. 6 7..0 1 I 1 8 .8 8 .9 9 .2 8. 4 8 .7 9 .0 8 .1 8 .5 8 .7 6 .7 7 .2 7 .3 I 1 1 6,.6 7 .0 7 .4 8 .3 8 .7 9 .2 11 mfcT'irATED 1 r a t i J_J i l i FR0M THE QUARTERLY _L . r 12 SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NONREAL ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS PERCENTAGE OF LOANS MADE WITH A FLOATING INTEREST RATE BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 1 to 9 OTHER 10 to 24 25 to 99 BY SIZE OF BANK 100 and over LARGE OTHER 65 . 6 77 .7 71 . 1 77 . 1 71 ., 9 77., 6 79,. 1 83., 6 69., 4 70.. 0 82.9 86.9 26 .3 29 .9 27 . 6 32 . 6 47 .0 49 ,9 , 52 ., 6 47 .2 . 59 . ,3 56 , «1 55 ,5 . 58 .9 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE OF LOANS MADE 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. 1989. 1990. 1991. 1992. 1993. 39.2 43 . 1 38.9 45.3 53.4 59 , 61 . 61.0 65.2 65 .1 71.7 76.7 47.8 47.8 41.2 61.4 60.5 51.6 65.3 71 . 4 76.8 81.5 78.5 84.6 30.2 28.7 32.3 44.9 34.8 69.6 39.5 40.0 61 .6 69 .3 63 .5 70.0 43 . 0 48 . 1 41 .7 43 . 0 57 .2 . 62 ., 1 6 3.,8 59 ,7 . 6 8..3 .8 6 8. 66. 3 70 .3 15 .5 17 . 6 24 .3 19 . 6 30 .9 55 .5 54 .9 32 .. 9 40 ,0 , 40 ,6 , 47 ,8 . 48 .2 . 31 .4 44 . 3 39 . 5 47 .3 50 ..6 62 ., 1 63 .2 . 73 .. 6 51 . 2 50 .3 . 75. 3 78 .1 1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 I i I I 1 24 . 3 2 5. 6 23 . 8 27 . 6 40,. 6 48,. 5 49,. 3 50 ,. 4 53 . 52 .0 57 .3 60.1 25 . 6 29 . 1 31 . 3 31 . 5 41 .. 8 45 ,. 6 51.. 5 49 ., 6 59..2 59 .0 . 59 .1 61. 0 29 . 7 34 . 9 29 . 0 42 .0 48,. 2 54,. 4 60,. 8 58 , .5 66 . 0 6 4 ,0 . 61 .2 64. 5 53 .4 55 . 9 52 .7 56 . 6 63 .7 , 68,. 5 67 ., 0 69,, 1 67 , .5 67 .8 . 78.. 6 83 .9 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 1 AVERAGE PERCENTAGE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER 1992 Q3, Q4 . 69.7 73.5 78.7 77.0 78.4 75.8 68.9 70.0 39.7 51.0 62.0 74.3 58.8 54.8 65.4 55.7 65.4 62.4 73.9 80.4 78.0 81.5 57.0 62.4 1993 Ql. Q2 . Q3 . Q4 . 71 .2 81.6 79.1 75.6 85.9 87.2 89.6 77.9 56.7 64.3 77.8 74.9 70.6 64.8 74.2 72.7 47.0 60.4 33.5 53.9 61.3 95.6 78.0 76.3 57.7 59.5 62.7 60.9 60.3 60.0 57.6 77.2 91.4 87.5 80.9 81.5 92.0 88.6 85.5 58.6 6 6.6 60.8 65.1 69.2 64.0 71.7 7 3 .5 89.1 78.3 91.3 78 74 79 , 76.6 73.9 65.6 66.9 40.4 51.1 69.6 70.0 83.6 56.6 59.6 58.9 59.3 56.8 62.3 72.9 68.7 70.1 83.1 77 . 0 85.2 85.8 81.8 1994 Ql. 61.1 61.2 55.4 65.3 58.9 56.4 Table I.G P E R C E N T A G E D I S T R I B U T I O N OF N O N R E A L E S T A T E F A R M L O A N S M A D E B Y B A N K S BY EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATE Effective interest rate (percent) August 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1 Memo Percentage Distribution of N u m b e r o f Loans, 1994 May All loans... 100 U n d e r 5. 0 5 . 0 to 5 .9... 6 . 0 to 65.9... 7.0 to 77.9... 8 . 0 to 83.9... 9 . 0 to 9). 9 . . . 1 0 . 0 to 10.9 . 1 1 . 0 to 1 1 . 9 . 1 2 . 0 to 12.9 . 1 3 . 0 to 1 3 . 9 . 1 4 . 0 to 1 4 . 9 . 1 5 . 0 to 1 5 . 9 . 1 6 . 0 to 1 6 . 9 . 1 7 . 0 to 1 7 . 9 . 1 8 . 0 t o 18.9 . 19.0 to 19.9. 20.0 to 20.9. 2 1 . 0 to 2 1 . 9 . 2 2 . 0 to 2 2 . 9 . 23.0 to 23.9. 2 4 . 0 to 2 4 . 9 . 2 5 . 0 and o v e r 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 - 3 9 22 20 35 8 1 4 16 32 42 5 1 11 15 12 12 13 18 36 6 1 1 16 25 16 3 1 3 17 14 34 18 12 2 2 7 21 39 22 8 1 6 27 36 21 26 4 16 19 28 6 1 1 9 14 23 14 26 10 2 100 100 1 00 00 1 6 4 22 18 23 16 8 2 12 29 14 19 22 4 1 - - - - - - - - - - - 1 00 00 1 4 4 20 21 23 24 4 1 1 100 1 8 23 37 23 6 2 - ESHSPHiSpE:™Less than 1 percent. 100 4 17 32 34 10 2 1 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING AUGUST 1-5,1994 Loans to farmers all sizes ALL Amount of loans (thousands) Number of loans , Weighted average maturity (months)1 4 5 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 2 Standard error 3 Interquartile range 4 By purpose of loan Feeder livestock Other livestock Other current operating expenses Farm machinery and equipment Farm real estate Other 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Amount of loans (thousands) Number of loans 1 Weighted average maturity (months)' 24 25 26 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 2 Standard error 3 Interquartile range 4 By purpose of loan Feeder livestock Other livestock Other current operating expenses Farm machinery and equipment Farm real estate Other 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Amount of loans (thousands) Number of loans 1 Weighted average maturity (months) 44 45 46 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 2 Standard error 3 Interquartile range 4 By purpose of loan Feeder livestock Other livestock Other current operating expenses Farm machinery and equipment Farm real estate Other 55 56 57 58 59 60 139,259 4,082 15.2 7.94 0.27 9.14 9.21 0.06 9.76 9.05 0.15 9.72 8.90 0.14 9.54 6.58- 8.67 - 8.35 - 8.25 - 188,516 2,864 22.8 8.00- 8.60 0.14 9.24 969,010 871 10.4 220,574 1,575 42.1 7.45 - 8.13 0.16 8.75 6.13 - 7.29 0.38 8.45 8.69 8.42 8.48 9.01 8.55 7.01 9.06 9.64 9.25 9.49 9.59 8.24 8.90 9.42 9.15 9.40 9.14 8.25 8.74 8.85 9.16 9.09 9.33 8.16 8.57 9.33 8.69 8.94 8.61 8.24 7.93 8.03 8.75 7.64 8.38 7.57 8.78 7.02 7.31 75.7 77.0 58.5 56.8 61.9 64.3 64.0 52.9 69.5 61.1 78.9 63.7 82.2 91.1 17.0 4.1 30.6 9.6 6.9 62.6 5.1 3.7 12.1 15.8 7.9 44.3 8.5 6.0 17.5 16.4 31.9 2.7 16.8 24.9 13.0 3.8 31.5 2.5 15.2 34.0 20.8 2.4 18.1 5.6 40.5 5.9 5.8 71.5 7.0 2.5 7.2 1,171,552 13,859 10.1 26,430 7,122 7.7 42,643 2,866 11.3 51,192 1,510 14.7 64,926 987 18.4 112,828 775 27.0 873,533 600 6.1 7.45 0.35 8.50 8.83 0.11 9.43 8.50 0.08 9.17 8.36 0.13 7.75 - 9.00 8.14 0.10 7.50 - 8.75 7.89 0.07 7.31 - 8.38 7.20 0.41 8.25 7.93 7.14 8.07 8.18 8.63 7.68 8.78 7.02 6.84 2.2 7.2 8.04 6.72 1.8 56.9 6.13 - 8.25 - 7.83 - 6.13 - 8.63 7.44 7.59 8.73 8.64 6.85 8.54 9.36 9.06 9.18 9.09 8.18 8.36 8.97 8.70 8.81 8.80 8.03 8.26 8.63 8.58 8.84 9.14 8.02 8.26 8.40 8.41 9.04 8.42 7.56 87.0 91.3 89.2 79.5 92.3 85.0 94.1 80.0 95.2 82.0 96.8 87.9 84.4 93.8 22.4 3.1 20.2 0.3 1.6 52.3 10.7 2.6 61.4 2.8 2.1 20.5 11.0 5.2 46.7 1.8 7.2 28.1 22.5 3.9 35.6 1.3 4.3 32.3 21.3 5.9 32.4 0.7 10.5 29.1 25.4 3.4 29.0 1.0 4.6 36.6 23.1 2.7 617,905 40,300 21.2 92,375 27,028 8.5 110,649 7,752 9.8 88,067 2,572 15.4 123,590 1,877 23.8 107,746 800 47.8 95,477 8.85 0.22 9.65 9.32 0.09 9.84 9.26 0.17 8.62 - 10.00 9.21 0.17 8.75 - 9.69 8.84 0.15 8.25 - 9.38 8.39 0.35 7.75 - 9.11 8.10 0.69 7.50 - 9.01 9.07 9.36 9.15 9.04 8.53 7.91 9.42 9.67 9.30 9.52 9.70 8.35 9.16 9.54 9.27 9.47 9.53 8.64 9.27 8.90 9.40 9.10 9.40 8.44 8.82 9.70 8.84 8.93 8.66 8.69 8.75 9.35 7.50 8.34 7.43 54.3 50.0 49.8 50.3 50.2 56.4 46.5 37.1 56.0 50.1 60.3 38.4 6.8 6.2 50.3 5.6 13.1 18.1 4.6 6.8 74.4 8.2 2.6 3.4 9.0 7.6 68.7 6.4 2.3 6.0 11.8 10.2 49.4 12.7 7.0 8.9 8.36 6.68 14.7 0.2 59.4 BANKS5 41 42 43 53 54 153,292 10,618 10.0 Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment By purpose of loan Feeder livestock Other livestock Other current operating expenses Farm machinery and equipment Farm real estate Other OTHER 47 48 49 50 51 52 118,805 34,149 8.4 LENDERS5 FARM 21 22 23 27 28 29 30 31 32 1,789,457 54,160 17.2 Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment By purpose of loan Feeder livestock Other livestock Other current operating expenses Farm machinery and equipment Farm real estate Other LARGE $250 and ove $100-249 BANKS 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 Size class of loans (thousands) $50-99 $25-49 $10-24 $1-9 Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment By purpose of loan Feeder livestock Other livestock Other current operating expenses Farm machinery and equipment Farm real estate Other 8.20 - 8.73 - , 13.9 7.9 31.6 3.7 20.2 22.8 - - 4.3 34.2 4.1 26.2 31.2 271 21.8 - 8.62 8.01 7.41 61.9 67.1 - 48.8 17.1 34.1 NOTES TO TABLE I.H The Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers collects data on gross loan extensions made during the first full business week in the mid-month of each quarter by a sample of 250 banks of all sizes. The sample data are blown up to estimate the lending terms at all insured agricultural banks during that week. The estimated terms of bank lending are not intended for use in collecting the terms of loans extended over the entire quarter or residing in the portfolios of those banks. Loans of less than $1,000 are excluded from the survey. Beginning with the August 1986 survey, loans secured by farm real estate are included in the survey, and one purpose of a loan may be "purchase or improve farm real estate". In previous surveys, the purpose of such loans are reported as "other". 1. Average maturities are weighted by loan size and exclude demand loans. 2. Effective (compounded) annual interest rates are calculated from the stated rate and other terms of the loans and weighted by loan size. 3. The chances are about two out of three that the average rate shown would differ by less than this amount from the average rate that would be found by a complete survey of lending at all banks. 4. The interquartile range shows the interest rate range that encompasses the middle 50 percent of the total dollar amount of loans made. 5. Among banks reporting loans to farmers, most "large banks" (survey strata 1 and 2) had over $20 million in farm loans, most "other banks" (survey strata 3 to 5) had farm loans below $20 million. Table I.I Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers, (selected quarters) by USDA Farm Production Region PA MN SP DL SE AP LS CB NP 3 .3 10. 2 25 .6 17 .9 5 .9 5 .2 4. 7 10 .1 6 .8 10 .5 Sample Coverage, 18 .1 Aug. 1994 survey (%) 4. 2 8 .1 15 .5 11 .7 10 .3 8 7 .2 23 .1 71 .4 Avg. Loan Size, 292. 8 Aug. 1994 survey ($1000) 14. 7 30 .2 21 .4 544. 0 88 .3 46 .8 33 .4 48 .8 92 .4 NE Proportion of farm loans outstanding, Aug. 1994 survey Survey date: Wei fihted Average Interest: Rate During Samnlc; We* Nov. 1991 9 8 (. 23) 10. 6 (. 27) 10 2 ( .38) 9. 3 (. 71) 7 .1 (1. 03) 9 .4 (. 18) 9 .2 (. 33) 1U . (. 52) 9 .5 (. 58) 8 .3 . ( .36) Feb. 1992 8 .4 (. 15) 10. 2 (. 16) 9 .3 (. 21) 8. 8 (. 44) 6 .3 (1 .06) 8 .0 ( .33) 8 .2 (. 67) 8 .7 ( .57) 8 .2 (. 45) 6.8 (.• 21) May 19 9 2 .6 8. (..20) 9. ,8 (..19) 9. ,1 (..13) 8 ,4 . (..55) 6 .3 (1. 29) . 8 ,0 (-.35) 8. 3 (. 53) 9 .0 (., 8 1) 7 .9 (. 43) 7 .3 . ( .19) Aug. 1992 7. 7 (.-15) 9 .3 . (•.21) 9 ., 1 ( .10) 8..6 (..5 0) 5. 6 (1..36) 7 ,0 . (..17) 8. 1 (..30) 8 ,3 . ( .94) • ,5 7. (..32) 7, 1 (.27) Nov. 1992 7 ,9 . (•.28) 9. 2 ( . 18) 8 .3 ( .25) 7 .9 ( .5 6) 5. ,5 (1..38) 7 .3 ( .3 9) 8,,4 (..13) 8. 2 ( .50) 7. 6 ( .47) 6. 9 ( .33) FVb, 1993 7 .8 ( .27) 9. 0 ( .28) 8 .0 ( .27) 8 .0 ( .47) 5. ,6 ( .90) 8 .3 ( .2 2) 7. 8 ( .41) 7 .8 ( .61) 7. 5 ( .41) 6 .5 ( .44) May 1993 8. 1 ( . 24) 8. 7 ( .21) 8. 1 ( .27) .9 ( .3 2) 5. 2 ( .57) 8 .4 ( .29) 7. 8 ( .43) 8 .3 ( .48) 7. 7 ( .5 2) 6 .8 ( .26) Aug, 1993 8 .2 ( .3 5) 7. 5 ( .69) 8 .2 ( .18) 8 .0 ( .33) 5. 7 ( .94) 7 .3 ( .3 7) 7. 0 ( .74) 7 .7 ( .6 2) 7. 1 ( .34) 7 .2 .39) Nov. 1':'93 8 .3 ( .28) 8. 1 ( .19) 7 .8 ( .22) 7 .4 ( .50) 5 .3 (1 .73) 6 .3 ( .07) 8. 2 ( .12) 7 .8 ( .57) 7. 1 ( .36) 6. 7 ( .49) Feb. 1994 7 .7 ( .32) 8 .6 ( .25) 7 .9 ( .22) 7 .5 ( .39) 5. 2 (1 .09) 7 .3 ( .09) 7. 7 ( .33) 7. 6 ( .43) 7. 3 ( .69) 6. 9 ( .31) May 1994 8 .7 ( .28) 9. 0 ( .26) 8 .0 ( .17) 8. 1 ( .23) 6. 1 ( .79) 8. 2 ( .29) 7. 8 ( .60) 8 .4 ( .36) 7. 5 ( .34) 7. 2 ( .26) Aug. 1994 9. 1 ( .19) 8 .6 ( .41) 8 .3 ( .40) 8. 6 ( .19) 6 .5 ( .83) 8 .6 (• U ) 7. 6 ( .72) 8. 6 ( .37) 7. 6 ( . 35) 7 .5 ( .25) SE is Southeast, DL is Delta States, SP is Southern Plains, MN is Mountain States, and PA is Pacific. Standard errors are in parentheses below each estimate. Standard errors are calculated from 1UU replications of a bootstrap procedure (resampling of banks) in each region. SECTION II: SELECTED STATISTICS FROM THE QUARTERLY REPORTS OF CONDITION OF COMMERCIAL BANKS Page TABLES: Commercial banks: II.A II.B II.C II.D .II.E Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated volume of farm loans at insured commercial banks delinquent nonreal estate farm loans at insured commercial banks net charge-offs of nonreal estate farm loans at insured commercial banks delinquent real estate farm loans at insured commercial banks... net charge - offs of real estate farm loans at insured commercial banks..... 19 20 21 22 23 Agricultural banks: II,F Distribution of agricultural banks by ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans II. G Distribution of agricultural banks by rate of return to equity. II.H Loan-deposit ratios at agricultural banks II . I Failures of agricultural banks SOURCES OF DATA: 24 25 26 27 ' The data in tables II.A through II.H are prepared using data from the quarterly reports of condition and income for commercial banks. Delinquencies and charge - offs of nonreal estate farm loans for the nation as a whole (table II. B and table II.C) are estimated from reports of banks that hold more than 90 percent of total nonreal estate farm loans. The incomplete coverage arises because banks with less than $300 million in assets have been excused from some reporting requirements. First, these smaller banks report delinquencies and chargeoffs of "agricultural loans" according to the particular bank's own definition, which may include loans Furthermore, small banks that hold less than 5 percent of total loans that are secured by farm,real estate. as' farm production loans are not required to report any information regarding delinquencies or charge-offs of "agricultural loans." In constructing the data presented in the tables, banks that are not required to report these data are assumed to have the same delinquency rates as those that do report. Recently, banks began to report delinquencies of loans that are secured by farm real estate. These data, which are shown in tables II.D and II.E, are reported by all banks, regardless of the size of the institution or the relative amounts of farm loans that they hold. Because "agricultural loans" and loans secured by farm real estate may overlap for some small banks, it is unclear whether it is proper to add the data in table II.B to its counterpart in table II.D to obtain total agricultural delinquencies. A similar caveat applies to the data concerning charge-offs in tables II.C and II.E. Examination of total lending at banks that have a high exposure to agricultural loans provides an alternative perspective on the agricultural lending situation. Agricultural banks in table II.D through table II.I are those that have a proportion of farm loans (real estate plus nonreal estate) to total loans that is greater The estimate of this average was 17.42 percent in June of 1994. than the unweighted average at all banks. Information on failed banks (table II.I) is obtained from news releases of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, With agricultural banks broken out in our tabulation according to the definition stated in the previous paragraph. 17 18 SECTION II: (continued) Recant Developments: growth seen since the mid 1980s. BiiiBiiiiiiaiF nonperforming loans that was greater than 5 percent. the highest seen since the early 1980s, when the liquidity of these banks was a concern. problem loans. the chance that these institutions might fail seems to be increasingly remote. TABLE II.A FARM DEBT OUTSTANDING AT COMMERCIAL BANKS, END OF QUARTER LOAN VOLUME, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS NONREAL ESTATE LOANS PERCENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS NONREAL ESTATE LOANS PERCENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS NONREAL ESTATE LOANS 1987 Q2. 03. 04. 44.3 44.8 43.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 30.4 30.6 29.0 5.6 1.2 -2.8 5.2 2.1 2.4 5.7 0.7 -5.2 -4.4 -2.8 -0.9 14.2 13.7 13.9 -11.0 -8.9 -6.9 1988 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 42.8 45.4 46.1 45.2 14.7 15.2 15.3 15.4 28.1 30.3 30.8 29.8 -1.5 6,0 1.5 -1.9 1.9 3.0 1.2 0.5 -3.2 7.6 1.7 -3.1 2.2 2.6 3.0 4.0 12.1 9.6 8.6 6.7 -2.3 -0.5 0.4 2.6 1989 Ql. 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.6 28 o 4 30.7 31.5 30.8 -2.2 03. 04. 44.2 47.0 48.0 47.4 2.7 3.0 1.2 0.9 -4.7 8.2 2.5 -2.2 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.9 7.5 7.6 7.6 8.0 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.3 1990 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 46.1 49.0 50.5 50.1 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.2 29 31, 33, 32. 0.7 2.2 -0.8 -0.6 -4.7 8,7 4.1 -0.9 4.3 4.3 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.1 5,0 3.5 3.4 3.9 5.5 6.9 1991 Ql. 49.5 52.6 53.9 53.0 17.5 18.1 18.3 18.4 32.0 34.5 35.6 34.6 -1.3 6.2 2.5 -1.6 1.5 3.4 1.4 -2.8 7.7 3.1 -2.7 7.4 7.2 6.6 5.7 4.3 5.5 5.8 7.0 51.9 55.1 56.2 54.5 18.9 19.5 19.9 19.9 33.0 35.6 36.2 34.7 -2.1 6.2 1.9 -2.9 2.7 3.3 1.9 -4.6 7.8 1.9 -4.4 4.9 4.9 4.2 2.9 8.2 8.1 8.6 7.8 3.1 3.2 1.9 0.2 03. 04. , 52.8 56.0 58.0 57.7 20.0 20.6 20.8 20.9 32.8 35.4 37.1 36.8 -3.2 6.0 3.5 -0.5 1.2 0.1 -5.3 7.8 4.9 -0.8 1.6 3.2 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.7 5.0 -0.5 -0.6 2.4 6.2 1994 Ql., 02., 56.8 61.1 21.2 21.9 35.5 39.2 -1.5 7.6 3.2 7.6 9.1 6.4 6.4 8.3 10.7 02. 02. 03. 04. 1992 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 1993 Ql. 02. 6.3 2.1 -1.2 -2.8 6.4 3.1 1.1 0.6 -0.2 0.5 3.1 1.8 -3.4 10.2 1.7 9.1 8.1 7.1 5.1 20 TABLE II.B ESTIMATED DELINQUENT FARM NONREAL ESTATE LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AS PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING FARM PRODUCTION LOANS NONPERFORMING TOTAL PAST DUE 3 0 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONPERFORMING NONACCRUAL MEMO: RESTRUCTURED LOANS IN COMPLIANCE TOTAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONACCRUAL MEMO: RESTRUCTURED LOANS IN COMPLIANCE -December 31 of year indicated1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. 1989. 1990. 1991. 1992. 1993 . 3 .6 2 .9 1 .9 3..4 1..1 1 .0 . 1 .1 . 1.,0 0.,8 1 .0 0 .8 0 .5 0 .4 0 .4 0..4 0 .4 . 0 .3 . 0.,3 2 .6 2 .2 1..4 1..0 0..7 0.,6 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0 .4 0 .3 0,.2 0..1 0..1 0..1 0.,1 0, 1 0. 1 2 .2 1 .9 1 .2 0 .9 0..6 0,.5 0..5 0,,5 0.,4 NA 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 10 .1 9. 4 6 .5 4. 5 . 3 .7 3 .1 . 3 .2 . . 2 .8 2 .2 . 2 ,8 2 .4 1 .7 1 .2 1..3 1..3 1 .3 . 1 ,0 . 0.,8 7 .3 7 .0 4..8 3..3 2 .3 . 1.,9 1.,9 1. 8 1 .4 1 .2 1. 1 0.. 7 0,.5 0,,5 0,. 3 0 .3 , 0- 3 0. 2 6 .1 5 .9 4 .2 2 .9 1 ,9 1.,6 1.,6 1 .5 . 1«.2 NA 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 -End of quarter1991 02... Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 1 1 1 .2 1 .0 1 .1 0 .4 0 .3 0 .4 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .2 0 .1 0 .1 0 .6 0 .6 0 .5 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.3 2.9 3.2 1. 3 0 .9 1 .3 2 .1 2 .0 1 .9 0 .5 0. 4 0 .3 1 .6 1 .6 1 .6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1992 Ql. . . Q2. . . Q3... 04... 1 11 1 1 .4 1 .2 1 .1 1 .0 0 .6 0 .4 0 .4 0 .3 0 .8 0 .8 0 .7 0,.6 0 .2 0 .2 0,.2 0..1 0 .6 0 .6 0,.6 0,.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 4.3 3.3 3.0 2.8 1 .9 1 .1 1 .1 1..0 2 .4 2 .2 1..9 1..8 0.,6 0..5 0-.4 0.,3 1 .8 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1993 01... 02... 03... 04... 1 i 1 1 1..3 1 .0 . 0,,8 0.8 0 .5 . 0, ,3 0.,2 0 .3 0..8 0.,7 0, 6 0. 5 0.,2 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0,.6 0..5 0.,5 0.,4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 1..6 0 .8 . 0..7 0,,8 2.,3 1. 9 1. 6 1. 4 0..6 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 1..7 1,.5 1.,3 1..2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 1994 oi... 02... ! i 1 1. 0 .9 0 ,5 0 ,3 0. 6 0. 6 0. 1 0. 1 0. 4 0. 4 0.2 0.2 3.1 2.2 1. 5 0. 7 1. 6 1. 5 0. 4 0. 4 1..2 1, .1 0.4 0.4 TABLE II.C ESTIMATED NET CHARGE-OFFS OF NONREAL ESTATE FARM LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS* ESTIMATED AMOUNT MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 CHARGE-OFFS AS A PERCENTAGE OF SUCH LOANS OUTSTANDING ANNUAL TOTAL 01 02 03 04 ANNUAL TOTAL 503 128 91 51 105 82 54 173 28 10 -5 12 14 7 133 39 26 19 25 20 16 57 24 15 10 36 29 5 140 37 40 28 32 18 26 1 .60 0.46 0.27 0.20 0.32 0.24 0. 15 1OMSADE£IS K S ISEA;SSS S S CSTR!' - ^ ^ 01 0 .55 0 .10 0 .03 -0,.02 0,.04 0,.04 n.. n? 02 03 0 .46 0 .14 0,.09 0,.06 0..08 0.,06 n nq 0 .19 0 .10 0 .05 0,.03 0,.10 0.,08 n n1 04 0 .46 0 .12 0,. 13 0,.08 0,.09 0,,05 =•••• 21 22 TABLE II.D DELINQUENT FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AS PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS NONPERFORMING TOTAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL NONPERFORMING PAST DUE PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING 30 TO 89 NONACCRUAL TOTAL DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONACCRUAL -December 31 of year indicated199 1 199 2 199 3 ' ' I 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0. 3 0.2 0. 1 0. 1 0.0 0. 2 0. 2 0.2 , I I 2,6 2,1 1. 8 1 . 0 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.3 1. 1 . 0,4 0.3 0 .2 2,6 2.4 0.5 0,4 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.8 0.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.4 1 2_ 1.0 0.8 -End of quarter1 9 9 1 Q2. Q3. 04. 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 1992 Ql. 0. 6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 1993 01. 0.5 02. 03. 04. 0.4 0,4 0.4 1994 Ql. 02 . 0.4 02. 03. 04. All comiTiem ia I b a n k s b e g a n 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.5 %. 0 0.2 0.1 0,2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.1 1.6 to report 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 these data in 1991. 2.6 3.1 2.4 2.1 2 .1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.1, 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.2 .1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 TABLE II . E NET CHARGE-OFFS OF REAL ESTATE FARM LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS* TOTAL 199% I i i i i X 1 9 9 3 ' | 1.994!!!!!! I 1992 I 16 6 ** 20 Q1 1 0 -1 Q2 4 5 1 -1 Q3 7 4 2 ** Q4 4 6 3 ** TOTAL 6 I I I 1 0,09 0.11 0.03 ** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0.004 0.019 0.002 -0.004 0.027 0.033 0.003 -0.004 0.022 0.022 0.008 ** 0.034 0.029 0.015 ** * All commercial banks began to report these data in 1991. 23 24 TABLE II.F DISTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURAL BANKS BY THE SHARE OF THEIR LOANS THAT ARE NONPERFORMING* NOWPERFORMING LOANS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LOANS TOTAL UNDER 2.0 2.0 TO 4,9 5.0 TO 9.9 10.0 TO 14.9 15.0 TO 19.9 20.0 AND OVER Percentage distribution, December 31 of year indicated100,.0 100..0 .0 100 , 100 , .0 100 , .0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100 .0 1985 1986. ..... 1987 1988 . 1989 1990 1991 1992 ...... 1993...... 36,,4 39.. 6 50..3 59 , ,0 .8 65 . 69.,6 ,8 70 . 76,.2 .6 80 , 33 . ,1 32., 2 30., 6 28.,9 25.. 1 22,,7 22,,3 18,,9 15.. 9 ,6 21 « 19 ,7 . 14., 4 9.,7 7. ,6 6.>4 5,,8 3 ,, 9 2> ,8 2 ,1 . 1 .9 . 0 .9 , 0 , ,4 0 ,,2 0 ..2 0 ..3 0 ,1 . 0 ,. 1 1 ,2 , 1 ,0 , 0 ,3 , 0 . ,2 0 .1 0 .0 0 ,1 0 .0 0 ,0 1 .0 . 1 .0 . 0 ,.7 0 ,.8 0 . ,3 0 .. . .2 . ,1 ,01 0 , .1 0 ,.9 0 ,.2 0 , ,0 5,.6 5,.5 3 .3 , 1, 9 1 .2 , 1 .0 . 0 ..7 0 . .8 0 .6 . • Percentage distribution, end of quarter 1992 01... Q2... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 100..0 100 , .0 100,.0 100,.0 66 .4 . 68 ,2 . 71..6 76.,2 24. 6 24.. 1 22.. 1 18 .9 o 7 ,5 . 6 ,5 « 5 ,5 < 3 ,9 . 1993 oi... 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 100,.0 100..0 100 .0 100 .0 71 ,8 ,5 74 . 76 .6 .6 80 . 21., 8 20 = ,3 19,, 1 15., 9 5.,3 4,,4 3.,6 2,,8 1994 0 1 - . 02... 1 1 100 .0 100 .0 79 .2 81 .1 16.. 8 16.> 1 3 ,3 . 2.,4 0 0 0 0 ..6 0 ,.1 0 .6 . 0 . .1 1 0 ,,1 0 ,,0 0 ,. 1 0 .0 , ,0 0 .6 0 .,1 0 0 .5 .4 0 . , 0 .0 0 .0 0 0 1 .1 * Nonperforming loans are loans in nonaccrual status or past due 90 days or more. Renegotiated or restructured loans in compliance with the modified terms are not included. Agricultural banks are defined in the introduction to section II. TABLE 1I.G SELECTED MEASURES OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL AND OTHER BANKS* AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN TO EQUITY NET INCOME AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE EQUITY AT AGRICULTURAL BANKS ALL BANKS NEGATIVE 0 TO 4 5 TO 9 10 TO 14 15 TO 19 20 TO 24 25 AND OVER AVERAGE CAPITAL RATIO (PERCENT) NET CHARGE-OFFS AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LOANS RATE OF RETURN TO ASSETS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS 14,.0 11..0 8.,0 6.,0 5.,0 8..0 10,.0 11,.0 10..8 10 .9 12..6 12,.4 12 ,0 12 ,0 1.2 .0 . 11..0 8,.0 8.,0 9.,0 10.-0 8 .5 8 .9 11 ,5 12 .4 1.,1 1.,0 0,,7 0.,5 0..4 0 ,7 0..9 1.,0 1..0 1..0 1 ,2 1,,2 0 ,9 . 0 .9 , 0 ,8 0 .8 , 0 .6 . 0 ,6 . 0 .7 . 0 .8 0 ,7 0 .7 1 .0 1 ,1 0 ,7 , 0 =. 9 1 ,2 . 2 .1 2 .3 . 1 .. 3 0 .7 0 .6 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 0 .2 0,,6 0,,7 0.,6 0.,8 1..1 0 ,9 0.,7 0 .7 0,,7 0.,8 0.,7 0..4 9.,3 9 .4 . 9 ,5 . 9 ,6 . . 9 .5 9 ,8 . 9..9 10 .1 , 9 .9 10 ,1 10 .4 10 .8 8 ,5 . 8.,4 8..5 8.,5 8..4 8,.8 8..8 9,.0 9 .0 9..2 9 .5 10 .0 -percentage distribution1982 1983 1984 ...... 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 . 1990 1991 1992 1993 I I I I I ! | I I I I I 100..0 100.,0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 100..0 4 ,0 . 7 .0 . 13 .0 . 18 .0 , 19..0 13 .0 , 9 .0 5 .0 4. 9 4 .1 1 .9 1 .5 5 ,0 . 7.,0 9.,0 11 .0 . 14.,0 13 .0 9..0 7 .0 7 .5 , 7,.7 5 .0 5 .7 1.5., 0 18..0 23.,0 22 .0 . 27,,0 31..0 30..0 29..0 33 .4 3 2 .2 25..5 27.. 8 33.,0 36.,0 36,.0 3 3,0 . 28.,0 31..0 36.-0 38 .0 37 . 6 39 . 2 41 , 1 40 .6 . 28. 0 11.,0 4 .0 7 .0 , 2 ,0 24. 0 , 3 .0 15..0 1 ,0 . 3 .0 , 13.,0 1 .0 9,,0 . 2.,0 1 ,0 9.,0 2.. 0 1 .0 3 .0 . 2 ,0 12 ,0 4 ,0 3 ,0 14..0 2, 6 1 , 1 12,,9 13 . 4 2 .5 0 > 9 5 .1 1 . 7 19,.8 18,. 5 4 . 6 1 .3 I I I 1 I I 1 I I I | I QUARTERLY YEAR TO DATE 1992 Q2 . . . Q3. . . 04... 100..0 100..0 100..0 ** * * ** ** ** ** ** * * ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** k* k* * * * * * * ** ** ** * * ** 1993 Ql. . . Q2. . . Q3 . . . Q4... 100..0 100..0 100,.0 100..0 ** * * ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 1994 Ql... Q2. . . 100..0 100..0 ** ** ** * * * * ** 6.,7 10.,0 12., 6 6..1 8., 9 11,,5 0., 6 1 ,0 . 1 ,2 . 0 ,5 , 0 .8 , 1 ,0 . 0 ,2 , 0 ,2 0 ,4 , 0, 3 0..4 0,7 10 ,5 . 10 ,7 . 10 ,4 . 9,,5 9,.6 9.,5 3 .5 . 6..8 9..9 12 .4 , 3. 6 6 ,8 9,,7 12.,4 0.,3 0..7 1.,0 1,,2 0.,3 0 ,6 , 0 ,9 1 .1 . 0..0 0 .1 . 0 .1 . 0 .2 , 0,.1 0,,2 0,,3 0.,4 10,. 6 10 .9 , 11 .0 10 .8 9..9 10..0 10 .0 10 .0 3 ,1 6..3 0.,3 0..6 0..3 0 .6 0 .0 0 .1 0..1 0 .1 11 .0 11 .0 10 .1 10 .1 3 .0 . 6,.2 * Agricultural and other banks are defined in the introduction to section II; small banks have less than 500 million dollars in assets. Total primary and secondary capital (items that are available at the end of the period specified) are measured as a percentage of total assets. Quarterly data in the lower panel are cumulative through the end of the quarter indicated and, for periods of less than a year, are not comparable to the annual data in the upper panel. 25 TABLE II.H A V E R A G E LOAN-DEPOSIT RATIOS AT AGRICULTURAL BAl^S IN SELECTED FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS* DECEMBER 3.1 CLEVELAND u..S. ATLANTA ST, LOUIS CHICAGO MINNEAPOLIS KANSAS CITY DALLAS SAN FRANCISCO MINIMUM FARM LOAN RATIO LOANS LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER OF TO LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER OF TO NUMBER OF TO OF TO TO OF OF TO OF TO OF TO TO BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS OF BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS 198 9 1990 1991 1992 1993 4181 4068 3955 3854 3723 "11;;; i 0.54 0.55 0 ,55 0 .55 0 .58 84 77 71 75 67 0.64 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.66 138 135 133 131 130 0.588 0.595 0.609 0.607 0.618 1055 1009 969 948 912 0.548 0.563 0.572 0.574 0 . 600 477 477 470 456 432 0.558 0.566 0.567 0.563 0.590 758 743 725 694 669 0,552 0.559 0,569 0.579 0.615 1196 1171 113 5 1092 1063 °;1! I :E is lis; E< ;il: :E E E E IE 0.511 0.511 0.522 0.533 0.566 393 385 378 384 378 0,481 0,460 0.438 0,422 0.442 57 57 60 61 58 0.637 0.699 0.711 0.708 0.733 E EE E E 15.92 16.56 16.72 17.04 iSi ""!;; I I § !1 E II I II I I I I E II 1 IH \ § | 1994 S::: llll I'M " III S:"? lit S:'" "I . The loan-deposit ratio is defined as total loans divided by total deposits. that shown in the last column, as described in the introduction to section I . III l:6^ I:™ ™ °-476 59 °-764 17 42 - Agricultural banks are defined as'banKs with a farm loan ratio at least as great as TABLE II.I FAILURES OF AGRICULTURAL BANKS* NUMBER OF FAILURES 1986,... 1987 1988.... 1989 1990 1991. . . , 1992 1993 1994 Q1 02 Q3 14 22 11 5 3 2 1 1 0 14 19 6 7 5 2 1 2 0 21 12 12 5 6 3 1 2 0 Q4 ANNUAL TOTAL 16 16 7 5 3 1 4 0 65 69 36 22 17 8 7 5 * * * * * Data exclude banks assisted to prevent failure. Industrial banks and mutual savings banks also are excluded. Agricultural banks are defined in the introduction to section II. 2 8 SECTION III; FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF FARM CREDIT CONDITIONS AND FARM LAND VALUES TABLES Page III .A III,.B III,.C III.,D Ill., E Nonreal estate lending experience. Expected change in non-real-estate loan volume and repayment conditions Average loan/deposit ratio, and other indicators of relative credit availability.. .. Interest rates Trends in real estate values and loan volume 34 sources nv t^ta- L I I L M L G P I I I I L L S ; ,uart "iy r *p"ts - th "* P e t r e l Reserve Bank pf Chicmgn, Box 834. Chicago. Illinois, 60690 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480 BI'EIFFLSLIWBSSSEJGLI Section III: Ti I hP Re (continued) v l i W iU f e r VT e ~Bank . of Richmond, Virginia Virginia llZbl 23261 " ,Richmond, ^ ' ixj.viimuna, A "F" o n v* -i a111 1 4- 1 < «a ^ 1 1». —. - 1_ • 1 • * . fl 1 1 TTi n O K s = l i i RECENT DEVELOPMENTS- I H I E A S B L I I S I E . 30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.A FARM NONREAL ESTATE LENDING EXPERIENCE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) LOWER III.A1 SAME LOWER HIGHER SAME LOWER HIGHER SAME COLLATERAL REQUIRED RENEWALS OR EXTENSIONS LOAN REPAYMENT RATE FUND AVAILABILITY DEMAND FOR LOANS LOWER HIGHER SAME LOWER HIGHER SAME HIGHER SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI* ) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1992 Q2. 03. . 04. . 15 20 20 47 50 52 38 30 28 I I | 8 9 7 62 59 60 31 32 33 I I | 27 19 30 67 73 47 6 8 23 | 1 1 10 9 21 60 69 52 30 22 26 | 1 | 1 o 1 77 80 83 22 19 16 1993 Ql.. 02. 03. 04. . 23 24 20 15 46 49 50 44 31 27 30 40 | | I | 8 5 10 6 53 61 59 62 39 34 31 32 I I I | 20 18 21 29 58 68 67 46 22 13 11 25 | 1 I I 20 13 13 21 58 65 64 49 22 22 23 30 I 1 I 1 1 o 1 1 82 85 84 87 16 15 15 12 1994 Ql.. 12 10 41 41 47 49 | I 9 13 61 67 30 20 I I 28 20 50 69 22 11 | | 18 10 50 65 32 25 I I o o 86 89 14 11 02. . III.A2 1992 02... 03... Q4... 1993 Ql... 02... Q3... 04... 1994 Ql... 02.., TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK, WY) AGRICULTURAL BANKS I 1 1 22 21 16 48 51 55 31 28 28 I I 1 15 16 10 57 54 60 28 30 30 I I 1 22 20 13 72 70 69 6 10 19 | | I 8 16 16 72 69 72 19 15 12 | I I 1 4 1 78 77 82 21 20 16 I 1 1 1 18 14 16 14 56 58 57 56 25 28 26 30 | I I 1 8 11 17 12 64 62 61 68 28 27 22 20 I | I I 10 7 12 20 74 82 80 71 15 11 8 10 | | | | 14 11 7 10 75 82 81 74 11 7 12 16 | | I I 0 1 0 1 86 88 89 91 13 11 11 9 1 I 9 10 59 53 32 37 1 I 10 19 72 67 18 13 I I 16 16 76 78 8 6 | | 7 5 78 84 15 12 I 1 1 o 89 92 10 8 III.A3 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( LA*, NM*, TX ) 1992 02... 03... Q4... I I I 19 24 26 57 53 55 24 22 19 1 1 I 7 5 5 62 66 56 31 29 39 I I 1 18 14 16 67 67 62 15 19 21 I I I 14 14 22 65 70 62 20 15 17 | | I 0 0 1 65 73 75 34 27 24 1993 01... 02... 03... 04... I I ! 1 20 20 18 8 58 58 54 62 22 22 28 30 I 1 1 1 2 4 4 3 62 59 65 70 37 38 31 27 I I I I 9 6 10 12 70 75 77 70 22 18 13 18 1 1 1 1 24 16 14 24 68 78 76 63 9 6 11 14 | | | I 1 0 1 0 75 85 82 86 24 15 17 14 1994 Ql... 02... 1 I 11 22 62 56 26 21 | 1 3 3 78 79 19 18 I I 9 14 78 75 13 11 1 1 17 12 76 77 7 11 I I 1 1 86 91 13 8 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.A (CONTINUED) FARM NONRBAL ESTATE LENDING EXPERIENCE COMPARED WITH NORMAL CONDITIONS (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) DEMAND FOR LOANS LOWER III.A4 SAME FUND AVAILABILITY HIGHER LOWER SAME LOAN REPAYMENT RATE HIGHER LOWER SAME HIGHER RENEWALS OR EXTENSIONS LOWER SAME COLLATERAL REQUIRED HIGHER LOWER HIGHER 85 87 13 13 NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI* ) 1992 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 6 8 7 70 73 83 24 19 10 19 30 30 78 70 63 3 1 7 5 7 9 81 82 65 14 11 26 1993 oi... Q2... 03... 04... I 1 1 1 7 9 9 3 80 79 75 79 13 12 16 18 33 20 44 49 60 78 54 45 7 2 2 6 8 8 7 8 64 77 73 52 28 15 20 40 25 21 66 72 19 7 6 4 65 73 29 23 1 1 1994 01. . . Q2. . . 1 1 III. A5 SAME 13 17 77 69 10 13 | | 2 0 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MD, NC, SC, VA, WV* ) 1992 Q2. 03. 04. 33 29 17 54 63 65 13 8 17 1 1 1 0 0 0 58 58 67 42 42 33 1 1 1 17 13 25 79 75 71 4 13 4 21 17 9 67 71 57 13 13 35 1 1 1 4 0 0 70 75 71 26 25 29 1993 01. 8 9 23 30 83 83 73 57 8 9 5 13 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 67 70 73 74 33 30 27 26 1 1 1 1 17 5 14 30 78 91 86 65 4 5 0 4 4 18 5 5 75 77 86 64 21 5 10 32 1 1 1 1 5 0 0 0 76 87 86 70 19 13 14 30 4 5 72 76 24 19 1 1 4 0 64 67 32 33 1 1 20 10 64 90 4 0 0 0 76 86 24 14 I 1 0 0 88 80 13 20 02. 03. 04. 1994 01. 02. , 31 32 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.B FARM NONRBAL ESTATE LOAN VOLUME EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH VOLUME OF LOANS MADE A YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) TOTAL LOWER SAME FEEDER CATTLE LOWER SAME HIGHER DAIRY HIGHER LOWER SAME CROP STORAGE HIGHER LOWER SAME OPERATING LOWER SAME HIGHER FARM MACHINERY HIGHER LOWER SAME HIGHER Ill . B1 SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*, IN* , IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1992 Q2. . . 03... Q4. . . 1 1 1 14 16 15 57 56 57 29 28 29 | | | 23 19 16 72 67 70 5 14 14 | | | 15 19 16 78 74 78 7 7 6 I I I 16 14 16 74 51 55 9 35 29 ( | S 8 14 13 51 57 48 41 29 39 i | i 31 28 22 56 51 53 13 21 25 1993 Ql. . . Q2. . . 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 16 18 13 10 59 58 56 43 25 23 31 47 | | I | 19 22 18 19 66 69 68 72 15 9 14 8 | I I | 20 16 17 16 74 77 78 75 5 6 5 8 I | | | 23 24 18 28 66 67 59 59 11 9 23 13 I | j | 16 14 12 7 46 51 53 36 38 35 35 57 ; | | | 20 33 30 21 51 47 47 43 29 20 23 36 1 1 11 13 42 55 48 32 | I 22 48 72 50 6 2 | I 16 24 74 70 10 6 | i 28 19 64 67 8 14 | f 7 a 38 50 55 42 I I 15 25 48 54 36 21 1994 01. . . 02... III,. B2 ELEVENTH: (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 1992 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 20 18 20 63 65 62 17 17 18 | | | 18 15 18 72 72 69 10 13 13 | | | 13 14 16 79 79 78 8 7 6 | I | 17 15 16 74 68 75 9 17 9 | I | 19 16 13 65 68 67 17 16 19 | | | 27 21 18 59 65 63 14 14 19 1993 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 14 13 13 7 65 63 59 62 21 24 28 31 | | | I 15 10 13 11 71 75 63 69 13 16 24 19 | | | I 14 7 11 12 78 85 82 79 8 8 7 9 1 S I I 17 11 11 9 78 76 82 81 5 13 7 10 | | I | 13 10 10 7 61 65 65 61 26 25 25 31 | ! | I 16 13 12 10 67 69 67 62 17 18 21 28 1994 01... 02... 1 1 7 18 75 67 18 15 I | 14 38 74 51 12 10 I | 13 16 77 80 9 4 I I 17 15 79 72 5 13 | I 7 5 65 63 28 32 | | 8 15 74 69 18 16 III.,B3 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC , sc, VA, WV*) 1992 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 17 22 5 74 65 82 9 13 14 | | I 15 14 20 85 73 75 0 14 5 | I | 30 24 11 70 76 90 0 0 0 | | | 23 14 15 73 68 70 5 18 15 | | | 8 21 17 83 79 71 8 0 13 | I | 17 33 21 75 67 71 8 0 8 1993 Ql. . . 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 9 0 10 11 87 96 80 74 4 4 10 16 | I | | 11 10 11 11 78 85 84 78 11 5 5 11 | | | 1 6 5 17 18 94 95 78 82 0 0 6 0 I | I I 17 9 23 30 83 82 55 70 0 9 23 0 | 1 I | 4 13 9 4 88 78 64 70 9 9 27 26 I 1 I | 4 13 27 18 83 83 59 64 13 4 14 18 1994 Ql. . . 02... 1 1 14 5 59 65 27 30 | I 5 16 90 74 5 11 | I 11 18 89 82 0 0 | | 14 10 82 86 5 5 | | 13 10 57 62 30 29 I | 23 10 59 67 18 24 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.B (CONTINUED) EXPECTED DEMAND FOR FARM LOANS DURING NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH NORMAL DEMAND (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) SHORT-TERM NONRBAL ESTATE LOANS INTERMEDIATE-TERM NONRBAL ESTATE LOANS LOWER LOWER SAME HIGHER SAME DEBT EXTENSION OR REFINANCING LOWER HIGHER SAME HIGHER NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) III.B4 1990 Q4. . . 1 8 69 23 1 9 81 10 1 11 68 20 1 1991 Ql. . . Q2 . • . Q3 . . . Q4. . . I 1 1 1 5 4 3 8 72 75 78 75 23 21 18 18 1 1 1 1 12 14 12 11 82 84 81 82 6 2 7 7 1 I 1 I 6 5 5 4 83 78 66 69 12 16 29 27 1 1 1 1 1992 Ql. . . Q2 . . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 1 1 | 2 8 10 5 86 78 80 86 11 14 10 9 1 1 1 1 3 11 13 14 90 86 82 80 7 3 5 6 | | I I 2 2 8 7 79 86 78 68 18 11 14 25 1 1 1 1 1993 Ql. . . Q2. . . Q3 . . . Q4. . . 1 1 | 1 5 3 7 3 84 81 62 69 11 16 32 28 1 1 1 1 8 13 15 7 85 82 71 75 7 6 14 18 | I 1 I 3 6 6 6 84 78 55 56 13 17 39 38 1 1 1 1 LOWER 1994 Ql. . . Q2. . . 1 1 33 39 LOWER SAME HIGHER 63 57 8 4 1 1 11 15 LOWER SAME HIGHER 71 71 17 13 OTHER. OPERATING FARM REAL ESTATE OTHER INTERMEDIATE FEEDER LIVESTOCK 1 | 24 27 LOWER SAME SAME HIGHER 58 56 18 17 I 1 3 11 65 63 FARM MACHINERY HIGHER 33 26 LOWER SAME 1 I 18 20 60 65 HIGHER 21 15 34 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.C AVERAGE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO AND OTHER INDICATORS OP RELATIVE CREDIT AVAILABILITY (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) AVERAGE LOAN-TODEPOSIT RATIO, END OF QUARTER PERCENT III ,C1 LOWER AT THAN DESIRED DESIRED LEVEL HIGHER THAN DESIRED 59 64 29 1993 01... 02... 03... 04... 58 59 59 60 68 66 64 65 24 25 26 25 8 9 10 10 1994 01..< 60 62 66 55 24 33 10 12 III .C2 ACTIVELY SEEKING NEW FARM LOAN ACCOUNTS NONBANK AGENCIES CORRESPONDENT BANKS NONE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER LOWER SAME HIGHER NONE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER LOWER SAME HIGHER SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1992 Q4. . . 02.. REFUSED OR REDUCED A FARM LOAN BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF LOANABLE FUNDS LOAN/DEPOSIT RATIO IS *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK, WY) AGRICULTURAL BANKS | 78 8 14 1 0 75 1 77 18 76 6 1 67 18 11 1 54 71 1992 04... 1993 oi... 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 53 55 57 56 1 1 1 1 82 79 75 73 6 6 8 7 11 15 17 15 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 76 75 76 72 1 1 | 1 78 78 79 77 16 15 14 12 77 80 79 83 7 5 7 5 I | | 1 66 68 68 69 16 14 15 13 73 77 76 78 11 9 9 9 1994 oi... 02... 1 1 56 59 1 | 71 66 9 7 16 22 1 1 2 1 74 73 1 1 75 77 10 11 84 82 6 7 1 | 64 68 11 10 76 78 13 12 15 76 11 79 10 15 14 13 12 80 80 80 84 8 16 14 11 84 77 81 85 8 7 5 4 11 13 83 84 10 10 83 86 7 4 III.C3 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( LA*, NM*, TX) 1992 Q4... I 41 1993 01... 02... Q3... 04... I I I ! 41 42 44 45 1994 01... Q2... I I 45 44 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.C (CONTINUED) AVERAGE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO AND OTHER INDICATORS OF RELATIVE CREDIT AVAILABILITY (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) AVERAGE LOAN-TODEPOSIT RATIO, END OF QUARTER PERCENT Ill ,C4 REFUSED OR REDUCED A FARM LOAN BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF LOANABLE FUNDS LOAN/DEPOSIT RATIO IS LOWER AT THAN DESIRED DESIRED LEVEL HIGHER THAN DESIRED NUMBER OF FARM LOAN REFERRALS TO ACTIVELY SEEKING NEW FARM LOAN ACCOUNTS NONBANK AGENCIES CORRESPONDENT BANKS NONE COMPARED WITH NORMAL NUMBER LOWER SAME HIGHER NONE COMPARED WITH NORMAL NUMBER HIGHER LOWER SAME NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) 1992 04... 1 56 1 53 41 6 1 5 1 41 2 57 0 1 38 2 56 3 1993 01. .. 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 54 58 60 56 1 1 1 1 49 46 41 36 45 45 44 54 7 9 15 10 1 1 | 1 4 3 4 5 1 1 1 1 31 40 32 31 3 2 4 3 64 57 59 62 1 0 5 3 1 1 1 1 27 28 32 28 3 3 4 4 64 63 60 63 6 6 4 6 1994 01. .. 02... 1 1 63 65 1 1 6 5 1 1 45 44 3 7 1 1 38 45 14 7 III,,C5 | *** *** | 52+ 50+ 49+ 48 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MD, NC, sc, VA, WV*) 1992 04... 1 69 1 52 44 4 1 14 83 1 80 5 15 0 1 71 5 24 0 1993 01. .. 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 67 67 69 68 1 1 1 1 50 62 60 53 42 33 30 37 8 5 10 11 1 1 1 1 4 0 5 0 75 78 68 65 1 1 1 1 77 71 84 71 0 0 0 0 9 24 16 29 14 5 0 0 1 1 1 1 82 20 71 65 0 5 0 0 14 75 29 35 5 0 0 0 1994 01. .. 02... 1 1 69 68 1 1 50 45 40 50 10 5 1 1 0 5 77 76 1 1 71 90 0 0 29 10 0 0 1 1 65 74 5 5 30 21 0 0 •Beginning in 1994, Minneapolis omitted the response "none" for the number of referrals to either correspondent banks or nonbank agencies. The column that has been added combines responses that formerly would have been reported as either "none" or "low". 35 36 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OP AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE XXX. D INTEREST RATES ON FARM LOANS AVERAGE INTEREST RATE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER COMPARED WITH AVERAGE RATES IN THE CURRENT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) MOST COMMON INTEREST RATE ON FARM LOANS (AVERAGE, PERCENT) FEEDER CATTLE LOANS III.D1 OTHER OPERATING LOANS SHORTTERM NONREAL ESTATE INTERMEDIATE NONREAL ESTATE LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS 1 9 ,1 4 9.1 8.6 1 1993 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 1 1 1 8,,8 8,.7 8,,6 8,.5 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 11 1 1 1 1994 Ql. . . Q2. . . 1 1 8 .5 9 .0 8.5 9.0 8.0 8.5 1 1 . 9.2 9.4 1993 Ql... Q2... Q3... Q 4... I I I I 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 QL... oi... Q2... i| 8.7 ».7 9.1 8.9 •.» 9.2 I LOWER LOWER SAME HIGHER SAME LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS LOWER HIGHER SAME HIGHER *** *** *** *** *** I| *** *** | *** *** *** *** *** | 1 1 1 1 *** *** *** *** *** | 1 1 I 1 1 *** *** 1 I *** 1 1 *** *** *** *** TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1992 Q4. .. i » 4 INTERMEDIATE-TERM NONREAL ESTATE LOANS SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1992 Q4 • • • III.D2 SHORT-TERM NONREAL ESTATE LOANS 9-4 8.9 , *** *** *** *** 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 I I I I *** — *** 8.9 9.2 8.4 « •« i 8.8 *** ' *** *** *** ! Ill ... ... | *** *** *** *** *** *** | I *** *** *** *** I *** *** *** *** *** | *** *** *** *** *** * * * i ::: ::: ::: ! ::: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.D (CONTINUED) INTEREST RATES ON FARM LOANS MOST COMMON INTEREST RATE ON FARM LOANS (AVERAGE, PERCENT) FEEDER CATTLE LOANS III.D3 OTHER OPERATING LOANS SHORTTERM NONRBAL ESTATE INTERMEDIATE NONREAL ESTATE AVERAGE INTEREST RATE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER COMPARED WITH AVERAGE RATES IN THE CURRENT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS SHORT-TERM NONRBAL ESTATE LOANS INTERMEDIATE-TERM NONRBAL ESTATE LOANS LOWER LOWER SAME HIGHER SAME HIGHER LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS LOWER SAME HIGHER NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) 1 *** 9.8 9 .8 9.1 1 12 62 26 1 10 64 26 1 10 69 22 1993 Ql... 02... 03... 04... 1 1 1 1 *** 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.8 9 .5 9 .3 9 .0 8 .9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.4 | | | | 10 6 12 7 80 86 82 85 10 8 6 8 1 1 1 1 11 7 9 5 79 85 85 86 10 8 6 9 1 1 1 1 8 5 9 3 81 90 83 88 11 5 7 9 1994 Ql... 02... 1 1 9 .2 9 .2 8.4 8.4 | | *** | j *** *** j j *** *** 1992 Q4... 9.2 9.1 III . D4 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 1992 Q4... 1 9.7 9.8 10 .0 9.9 | *** | *** *** | 1993 Ql... 02... 03 04. . . 1 1 1 1 9.5 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.7 8.5 9.4 9.3 9 .7 9 .5 9,.5 9.,4 9.5 8.7 9.3 9.2 | | | | *** *** | 1 | | 1 1 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** | | | | *** *** *** *** 1994 Ql... 02... 1 1 9.2 9.6 9.3 9.8 9. 4 9,7 9.2 9.7 | | *** *** j j *** *** | || *** *** *** | *** | *** *** *** j 1 | 1 *** 1 j III. D5 FIFTH (RICHMOND) i FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 1992 Q4... 1 8.6 8.8 1993 Ql... 02... 03... 04. . . 1 1 1 1 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 1994 Ql... 02... 1 1 8.6 9.8 8.6 9.7 *** *** *** *** 9.4 9.4 | 8.9 8. 9 8.8 8.7 9.1 8.6 8.4 8.3 1 | | | *** *** 1 1 | j 8.2 9. 9 9.0 10.0 | | *** *** | 1 *** 37 38 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.B TRENDS IN FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES AND LOAN VOLUME EXPECTED TREND IN FARM REAL ESTATE LOAN VOLUME DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) MARKET VALUE OF GOOD FARMLAND ALL III. El DRYLAND IRRIGATED RANCHLAND ALL 1 0 1 2 1993 Ql. . . 02... Q3. . . Q4. . . 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 1994 Ql. . . Q2. . . 1 1 2 1 1 1 5 6 1992 Q4... 1993 Ql. Q2. Q3. Q4. . . . . . . . , 1994 Ql. . Q2. . DRYLAND IRRIGATED RANCHLAND DOWN STABLE UP LOWER SAME HIGHER SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1992 Q4. . . III,,E2 TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM A YEAR EARLIER PERCENTAGE CHANGE DURING QUARTER *** | 3 82 15 1 16 65 18 *** *** 1 1 1 | 3 9 5 4 79 78 74 66 18 13 21 30 1 1 1 1 15 23 17 14 63 62 65 57 22 15 18 29 | 1 1 2 63 70 37 28 1 1 13 16 57 66 30 18 *** FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC , VA, WV*) 1 10 1 10 *** | 0 88 13 1 18 82 0 1 1 1 1 -3 -5 -3 0 1 1 l 1 4 6 -o -9 *** *** *** | 1 1 | 0 0 0 5 96 100 100 91 4 0 0 5 1 1 1 1 24 9 33 19 76 86 62 71 0 5 5 10 1 1 8 -8 1 1 1 "3 *** *** | | 4 0 88 100 8 0 1 1 13 10 78 80 9 10 III .E3 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 1992 Q4.. 1 -0 6 2 1 -2 7 1 1 1 23 61 16 1993 01.. 02.. Q3 , . Q4. . 1 1 1 1 1 -0 1 1 2 -2 -5 3 1 2 -3 6 1 1 | 1 1 2 3 13 8 -0 -3 0 3 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 13 15 8 64 73 72 74 19 13 13 17 1994 Ql. . Q2 . . ! 1 2 1 2 2 -1 -0 | 1 4 5 -3 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 12 17 75 73 13 10 *** 1 *** FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.E (CONTINUED) TRENDS IN FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES AND LOAN VOLUME EXPECTED DEMAND FOR FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH NORMAL (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) MARKET VALUE OF GOOD FARMLAND ALL III.E4 IRRIGATED RANCHLAND ALL DRYLAND IRRIGATED RANCHLAND DOWN STABLE UP LOWER SAME HIGHER TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK, WY) 1992 Q4... | *** 1993 Ql... Q2... Q3... Q4... | | | | *** *** *** *** 1994 Ql... Q2... | | *** *** III»E5 DRYLAND TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM A YEAR EARLIER PERCENTAGE CHANGE DURING QUARTER 1 2 0 1 2 1 - 0 - 1 2 0 1 o 3 1 2 | * * * 4 5 6 | *** *** *** | *** *** *** 2 2 1 2 | | 1 | *** *** *** *** 2 3 2 3 5 4 3 2 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** | | | | *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 3 | 1 | *** *** 4 3 4 4 8 7 *** *** *** *** *** *** | | *** *** *** *** *** *** | | NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MI*, MN, MT, ND, SC, WI*) 1992 Q4... I *** *** *** *** | *** 4 3 3 | *** *** *** | 14 72 14 1993 Ql... Q2... Q3... Q4... | | | | *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** | | | | *** *** *** *** 5 4 9 5 1 3 4 3 3 4 5 4 | | | | *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** | | | | 6 11 12 7 89 84 75 79 5 5 13 14 1994 Ql... Q2. . . | *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** | *** *** 6 6 4 5 4 | | *** *** *** *** *** *** | | | | 5 *** *** *** *** *** *** 39
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