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• * » • • • • • • • • E. 15 (125) n AGRICULTURAL FINANCE DATABOOK Fourth Quarter 1999 Guide to internal tables of contents and notes on sources Amount and characteristics of farm loans made by commercial banks Selected statistics from the quarterly reports of condition of commercial banks Reserve bank surveys of farm credit conditions and farm land values Division of Research and Statistics Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Washington, D.C. 20551 Nicholas A. Walraven and James Hull Page 3 22 qq General Information The Agricultural Finance Databook is a compilation of various data on current developments in agricultural finance. Large portions of the data come from regular surveys conducted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Federal Reserve Banks. Other portions of the data come from the quarterly call report data of commercial banks or from the reports of other financial institutions involved in agricultural lending. When the current issue went to press, data from the survey of terms of bank lending were available for the fourth quarter of 1999; the other data generally were available through the third quarter of 1999. Parts or all of the Agricultural Finance Databook may be copied and distributed freely. Any redistribution of selected parts of the Databook should be accompanied by the "contents" pages at the beginning of the corresponding section, together with the front cover identifying the Databook and date of issue, and this page providing subscription information. Remaining questions may be addressed to James Hull or Nicholas Walraven at the address shown on the cover. The Databook is furnished on a complimentary basis to college and university teachers, libraries of educational institutions, government departments and agencies, and public libraries. Others should enclose the annual subscription fee of $5.00. New subscriptions to the Databook (Statistical Release E.15) may be entered by sending a mailing address (including zip code) to: Publications Services, Mail Stop 138 Federal Reserve Board Washington, D.C. 20551 Notice of change of address also should be sent to Publications Services. A copy of the back cover showing the old address should be included. SECTION I: AMOUNT AND CHARACTERISTICS OF FARM LOANS MADE BY COMMERCIAL BANKS Estimates from the quarterly survey of non-real-estate farm loans Summary charts Page 5 Tables: I.A IB I.C ID IE IF I.G I.H I.I Number Average size Amount Average maturity Average effective interest rate Percentage of loans with a floating interest rate Distribution of farm loans by effective interest rate... Detailed survey results Regional disaggregation of survey results 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 21 SOURCES OF DATA: These data on the farm loans of $1000 or more made by commercial banks are derived from quarterly sample surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve System during the first full week of the second month of each quarter. Data obtained from the sample are expanded into national estimates for all commercial banks, which are shown in the following tables. Before August 1989, the farm loan survey was part of a broader survey of the terms of lending by a sample of 348 commercial banks. A subset of 250 banks was asked for information regarding agricultural lending, and about 150 typically reported at least one farm loan. Since August of 1989, the data have been drawn from a redesigned sample of 250 banks that is no longer part of the broader survey. In the redesigned sample, banks are stratified according to their volume of farm Tending; previously, they had been stratified according to the volume of business loans. However, the sample data always have been expanded into national estimates for all commercial banks, and these estimates necessarily exhibit variability due to sampling error. The estimates are sensitive to the occasional appearance of very large loans in the sample. In addition, the breakdown of national estimates into those for large banks and small banks may have been affected somewhat by the new sampling procedures that were implemented in August 1989; apparent shifts in the data as of that date should be treated with caution. Beginning with the May 1997 survey, data on the assessment by the lender of the risk associated with each loan, the next date that the rate of interest could be adjusted, whether the loan was callable by the bank, and whether the borrower could prepay the loan without penalty began to be collected. Over time, the data on the lender's perception of the riskiness of farm loans should help provide a better picture of the effect of fluctuations in the creditworthiness of farm borrowers as either farm financial conditions or the broader economic environment changes. The new data on loan repricing dates, callability of the loan, and the existence of prepayment penalties should help to refine estimates of the duration of farm loans made by commercial banks. Tables I.H.I through 1.H.6 contain most of the new data, while the other tables in section I attempt to show estimates that are comparable to those that have been presented for a number of years. However, for several quarters while the new survey was being designed, banks that left the survey panel were not replaced immediately, because new replacement banks would soon have been forced to revise their newly-instituted reporting procedures when the new survey form went into effect. As a result, the size of the survey panel dwindled through early 1997, and with the May 1997 survey, an unusually-large number of new reporters (about 25) were added. While this does not affect the validity of the May survey information, it likely introduced sampling error, especially when the May survey results are compared with those of previous quarters. The format and the information contained in the tables are likely to change over time as more of the new survey information is acquired. 3 SECTION I: (CONTINUED) More detailed results from each quarterly survey previously were published in Statistical Release E.2A, "Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers". Beginning in February, 1992, the more detailed results are included at the end of this section of the Databook, and the E2.A has been discontinued. Starting with the August 1986 survey, farm loans secured by real estate are included in the data shown in the table of detailed results, whereas such loans are excluded from the tabulations in Tables I. A through I.G and the summary charts. Beginning in November 1991, several survey statistics are estimated for each of ten farm production regions as defined by the USDA. These statistics, which are presented in table I I, should be treated with some caution. Although an effort was made to choose a good regional mix of banks for the panel, the panel never has been stratified by region. Consequently, the survey results are less precise for each region than for the totals for the nation. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: In the November 1999 survey, the estimated number of non-real-estate farm loans made by banks was a touch below the estimated level of one year earlier, continuing the gradual downward trend in the number of loans that has been evident since roughly 1994. The average amount of loans in the survey also was a bit lower than typical seasonal patterns would suggest, leaving the estimated amount of farm non-real-estate loans considerably below the third-quarter reading in 1998. This decline relative to one year earlier is much the same as was evident in the second-quarter survey, and the estiamted amount of farm non-real estate loans in the third quarter was the lowest since the survey was redesigned in the late 1980s. In the August survey, the average maturity of farm non-real-estate loans remained above year-earlier readings, as the bulge in maturities that was noted in the second quarter persisted through the summer. This lengthening of maturities was particularly evident for loans for purposes other than livestock, machinery, or operating expenses. The average effective rate of interest on non-real-estate farm loans rose 20 basis points to 9 percent in the August survey, bringing rates back into line with those reported in the August 1998 survey. The percentage of loans that were made with a rate of interest that floats was about 70 percent in August, largely reversing a trend towards fixed-rate arrangements in the survey data that began around 1995. While the terms of loans that are reported in each survey are fairly volatile, the August readings more or less parallel those from the May survey, suggesting that some substantial shifts in the terms of lending to farmers may be underway. Consistent with the earlier estimates for maturity of the loans, the weighted average maturity (line 3 of Tables I.H.I through I.H.6) remained quite high in the August survey, and the weighted average repricing interval (line 4 of the tables) remained fairly high as well. The weighted average risk rating declined for all farm loans except those for more than $250,000, suggesting that banks lending to farmers may have become more optimistic about repayment prospects in recent months. The percentage of the volume of loans that were to purchase or improve farm real estate (line 23) surged, especially for larger loans, and the proportion of large farm loans that were secured (lines 25 and 26) rose sharply. The proportion of loans that were callable by the bank declined in the August survey. When broken out by the riskiness of the loan (Tables I.H.4 through I.H.6), more than half of the estimated volume of loans was rated either "moderate" or "low". Loans rated as "acceptable" risk carried the lowest rate of interest among loans that were rated, although the variability of rates across all risk categories (line 7) was very high. By farm production region, weighted average rates of interest rose roughly 1/2 percentage point in the Northeast and Pacific regions-changes in rates were up or down from 10 to 30 basis points in the other areas. in Chart 1 Results from the Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers Millions, Annual rate Number of non-real-estate farm loans 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 — Four quarter moving average 2.0 1.5 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Thousands of dollars 1.0 50 45 Average size of non-real-estate farm loans 40 35 30 - Four quarter moving 25 20 15 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Billions of dollars, Annual rate Amount of non-real-estate farm loans 10 130 120 110 100 — Four quarter moving average 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 30 Chart 2 Results from the Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers Months Average maturity of non-real-estate farm loans - Four quarter moving average 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average effective interest rate on non-real-estate farm loans 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Percent Share of farm loans with a floating interest rate - Four quarter moving average 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 100 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.A NUMBER OF LOANS MADE (MILLIONS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($1,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT to 9 10 to 24 25 to 99 100 and over LARGE OTHER 1 .42 1 .67 1 .70 1 .66 1 .67 1 .65 1 .55 1 .45 1 .33 1 .32 1 .20 1 .09 0.43 0.52 0.49 0.51 0.54 0.56 0.51 0.57 0.48 0.50 0.45 0.44 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.32 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.31 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 0 .23 0 .36 0 .44 0,.50 0,.51 0..55 0,.54 0,.66 0,.53 0,.46 0,.39 0,,40 1 .99 2 .23 2 .20 2 .10 2 .18 2 .15 1,.98 1 .83 1,.69 1..82 1,,71 1.,56 1 OTHER BY SIZE OF BANK ANNUAL NUMBER OF LOANS MADE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 .21 2 .60 2 .63 2 .60 2 .69 2 .70 2 .53 2 .49 2 .22 2 .27 2 .10 1 .96 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.28 0.26 0.18 0.19 0.15 0.14 0 11 0 20 0 24 0 23 0,,25 0,,27 0.,23 0,,19 0.,17 0.,20 0.,18 0.,16 1 .45 1 .73 1 .69 1 .64 1 .67 1 .62 1 .56 1 .48 1 .38 1 .40 1 .39 1 .32 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.21 0.24 0.27 0.27 0.39 0.36 0.33 0.22 0.18 NUMBER OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1998 Ql. . . Q2 . . . Q3 . . . Q4. . . 2 .08 2 ,51 2,.12 1..70 0.19 0.12 0.10 0.17 0.20 0. 22 0. 16 0. 14 1 .29 1 .72 1 .50 1 .05 0.18 0.22 0.15 0.14 0.22 0.24 0.20 0.20 1 .07 1 .44 1 .36 0 .94 0.47 0.58 0.41 0.36 0.38 0.37 0.26 0.30 0.16 0.12 0.09 0.11 0,,38 0.,47 0.,38 0.,33 1,,70 2.,04 1.,74 1.,37 1999 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 1,.93 2,.37 2, ,05 1..49 0.20 0.12 0.07 0.15 0. 18 0. 18 0. 13 0. 15 1 .17 1 .77 1 ,47 0,.88 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.13 0.20 0.14 0.19 0.17 0 .96 1 .41 1 .25 0 .74 0.45 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.36 0.34 0.29 0.29 0.15 0.10 0.08 0.10 0. 39 0.,45 0. 44 0. 33 1.,54 1.,93 1. 61 1. 16 7 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I. B AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE (THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT OTHER 1 to 9 10 to 24 25 to 99 BY SIZE OF BANK 100 and over LARGE 320,.4 272,.1 487,,7 539..9 468,.2 490,.3 480,.7 451,,3 545,,9 385.,3 357..0 322..1 70.0 53.7 100.7 107.0 97.0 106.0 101.3 84.0 115.0 92.0 95.0 76.2 16..3 14..4 13..9 13.,9 15.,8 15..8 15.,4 15..7 15,,4 16..3 18.,1 19.,3 ANNUAL AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 21,.8 19,.9 28.,4 31..9 31.,2 34..3 33.,9 33., 8 39.,2 31..4 32..4 30..9 34..1 42.,7 69..7 61..0 68.,2 79.,7 60..3 49.,7 59.,0 42,,3 41.,5 35,.6 40.6 29.5 22.7 25.2 26.9 23.1 27.6 26.7 24.2 26.0 24.3 26.4 16..7 14..1 15..7 15..6 14..7 15..2 16..3 18.,5 26,,0 16..8 18..2 21.,4 13.9 12.1 11.9 15.1 15.9 13.9 17.5 15.6 17.2 17.8 28.1 31.8 34 .7 32 .2 94 .3 129 .3 108 .7 112 .0 123,.6 93,.6 95.,2 97..2 127,.9 101,.1 3,.7 3,.6 3,.6 3,.6 3,.7 3,.7 3,.7 3,.7 3,.7 3,.8 3,.7 3,.8 14,.8 14,.7 14,,8 14,.9 14,.8 14,.9 14,.6 14,.7 15,,0 14,.9 14,.8 14,.8 45,.2 45,.9 46,.1 46,.6 45,.9 46,.1 47..0 44.,9 45..2 45,,8 45.,4 46.,8 AVERAGE SIZE OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1998 Ql. . . Q2. . . 03... Q4. . . | | j 37..9 28..0 25.,6 40..4 1999 Ql... 02... 03... 04.. . | 1 | 1 46..6 26.-1 21.•4 31. 5 | | 1 | | 37.7 43.4 30.4 50.7 29.,6 21,.0 17,,9 29..3 23,.3 17,.2 14,.4 18..9 39,,6 24,.5 20,.9 26..9 130,.7 107,A 115,,8 161,,7 3,.8 3,,7 3,,5 3,,9 15.1 14.4 14.6 15.3 45,,8 46,.6 44..0 44.,6 320,,2 335,,1 366,.8 424,.7 100,.3 80,.3 85,.7 120,,7 24,.2 16,.0 12,.5 21,.0 32.7 30.2 30.1 46.5 26.,9 21..2 25.,1 33.,1 25,.6 20,.5 17,.0 24,.9 21,.9 52,,4 26,,6 25.,9 219,.2 66,,3 44,,0 54,.5 3,.7 3,.8 3,.7 4,.1 15.5 14.5 14.6 14.9 47..9 46..4 45..9 46,.7 412,.6 314,.6 261,.3 242,.1 137,.6 63,,4 47,.5 58..7 23,.4 17,.4 14,.3 23,.8 • e. • s # e # # • , .• e ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.C AMOUNT OF LOANS MADE (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($ 1,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT OTHER 1 to 9 10 to 24 25 to 99 BY SIZE OF BANK 100 and over LARGE OTHER 23 .7 23 .4 45 .3 54 .0 52 .8 61,.0 56,.0 54,.4 61,.3 43,.3 41..9 34,.9 15 .9 19 .6 44,.2 53,.7 49,.4 58,.8 55,.1 55,.3 61.,2 41..9 37..0 30..6 32 .3 32 .0 30,.5 29,.1 34..3 33,.8 30,.6 28,.8 26,.1 29..6 31..1 30..1 ANNUAL AMOUNT OF LOANS MADE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999, 48 .2 51 .6 74 .7 82 .8 83 .7 92 .6 85,.7 84,.1 87,.3 71,,4 68,.0 60,.6 10.0 12.9 22.0 21.4 23.6 28.7 16.8 12.7 10.6 8.0 6.1 4.9 4 6 6 0 5 5 5 8 6. 7 6. 2 6. 4 5. 2 4. 0 5. 3 4. 4 4. 2 24.3 24.3 26.6 25.5 24.6 24.7 25.4 27.3 35.9 23.6 25.2 28.4 1 .9 2 .0 2 .3 2 .5 2,.9 2 .5 3,.2 2,,1 2..4 2,.7 4..9 5..2 7 .4 6,.4 18,.3 27..6 26..0 30,.6 33..9 36.1 34.,5 31. 9 27. 5 18,,0 5 .2 6 .1 6,.1 6,.1 6,.2 6,.1 5..8 5..4 5..0 5.,0 4.,5 4.,2 6.4 7.7 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.3 7.4 8.3 7.1 7.4 6.7 6.6 12 .9 14 .4 15 .9 15,.1 16 .8 17 .1 16,.5 16,.0 13,.9 15,.8 14,.9 15,.1 AMOUNT OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE 1998 Ql. . . Q2. . . 03... 04... 78..80 70,.30 54..29 68..73 7.1 5.3 3.1 8.8 5. 9 4. 6 2. 9 4. 1 30.0 29.5 21.6 19.7 7..1 5..4 3.,2 3. 8 28. 6 25. 6 23. 5 32. 3 4.,1 5. 4 4. 8 3. 6 7.0 8.4 6.0 5.5 17..6 17,,4 11,.5 13..2 50..1 39,.2 32,.0 46..4 37..7 37..7 32..5 40..0 41..2 32..6 21,.8 28..7 1999 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . 04... 89..86 61..85 43..91 46.,96 6.7 3.5 2.2 7.1 4. 8 3. 8 3. 2 5. 0 30.1 36.4 25.0 22.0 3.,7 8,,7 5, 1 3. 4 44. 6 9. 5 8. 4 9. 4 3, 6 5. 4 4. 6 3, 0 7.0 7.4 6.4 5.3 17..4 16..0 13. 2 13.,7 61..9 33..0 19..7 24..9 53.,9 28.,3 20. 8 19.,3 36..0 33..5 23..1 27..7 9 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.D AVERAGE MATURITY OF LOANS MADE (MONTHS) BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT OTHER 1 to 9 10 to 24 25 to 99 9.2 8.3 9.2 8.3 9.7 10.0 11.6 10.8 10.5 11.6 11.3 11.2 10.2 9.3 11.9 10.6 11.1 11.1 13.5 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.4 BY SIZE OF BANK 100 and over LARGE OTHER 8,.1 7..8 4.,7 5..2 6..4 6..4 5.,8 7.,3 6..4 7..6 6.,8 9. 2 8 .8 8 .2 10 .2 9,.6 10,.1 10,,4 12,.6 11,,4 12,.3 12,.8 13.,2 13..8 ANNUAL AVERAGE MATURITY 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 8 .7 8,.1 7..5 7,.3 8,.9 9,.2 10,,3 9,,9 8..5 9..9 9,.8 11,,5 6 .4 6 .8 6,.0 6,.7 6,.1 7,.3 7 .6 8,,7 7,.8 9,.1 8,.0 8,,0 4,.7 7,.4 8,.8 8,.5 9..5 9,,6 9,,8 9,,9 11..3 11,.0 10.,3 11.,0 8 .5 7 .2 7,.5 7 .2 8,.6 8,.3 8,.6 8,,5 7..6 10.,7 9.,9 11.,3 19.8 18.7 21.9 24.6 20.1 30.4 36.6 26.5 29.4 30.6 27.5 20.1 10.9 11.8 6.4 5.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 9.2 7.4 6.8 10.5 7 .1 7,.4 7,.4 7,.7 8.,3 8..5 8,.6 9.,0 8..6 8..8 8..8 9.,8 7 .7 7 .1 4,.9 5,.8 7,.2 7,.4 7.,2 8,,2 7..3 8..8 8..7 11..4 MATURITY OF LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE Ql.. . 02... 03... 04... 1| | | | 1 oi... 02... 03... 04.. . io..6 10. .4 9 .6 " 8..3 8 .1 7,.8 7,.2 8,.3 12 .1 7 .5 13 .1 8,.6 9,.9 10,.4 9,.9 8,,9 23..9 33,.1 21,.7 31..5 8.2 6.6 7.6 5.2 9,.1 9,.8 8,,3 7,.6 13.1 11.3 11.5 8.9 13,.2 13,.8 11,.0 11.,4 9..5 8,.8 9,.0 7,,5 7..4 6..8 7..2 5..9 13,.4 14,.5 13,.2 11,,7 9.,2 14.,4 12.,0 11. 5 8,.3 8,.8 6,.9 7,.7 12,.8 12,.0 7,.3 10,.9 11..2 14. 2 9..3 8..7 28.,0 13.,9 22.,3 24.,1 6.1 18.8 17.1 16.9 10..1 9..9 9..4 9.,7 11.9 11.3 10.4 11.1 10..9 14..7 11..1 12.,9 8..4 15..7 13..8 11..1 7.,0 9..9 12..3 10.,8 12,.6 18,.0 11,.8 11,.9 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.E AVERAGE EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATE ON LOANS MADE BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT OTHER 1 to 9 10 to 24 25 to 99 BY SIZE OF BANK 100 and over LARGE OTHER 10 .8 12,.2 10,,9 9,.2 7,.1 6,.9 7..3 9..0 7.,8 8..8 8,.4 8,,1 10 .2 12,.1 10,.9 9,.0 6,.8 6,.7 7..2 9..0 7..8 8,.7 8..3 7,,9 11 .6 12,.7 12,.3 11,,3 9,.4 8,.7 8..8 10.,4 10..0 10,.0 9..8 9.,4 ANNUAL AVERAGE INTEREST RATE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 11.2 12.5 11.4 9.8 7.8 7.5 7.8 9.5 8.4 9.2 9.0 ND 10.9 12.3 11.5 10.2 8.2 8.0 8.3 10.1 8.8 9.6 9.4 9.1 11 .9 12 .4 12 .0 11 .0 8 .6 8 .1 8,,0 10,.2 9,.5 9..8 9,,7 9,,1 11,.2 12,.6 11,.7 10,.4 8..8 8..1 8.,4 10,.0 8.,6 9,,9 9..6 9.,2 11 .7 12,.8 12,.3 11,.3 9,,3 8,,7 8..6 10.,3 9.,7 9.,8 9,,3 8,,8 10 .7 12 .3 10,.7 8,.6 6,.3 6,.2 7..0 8,.8 8,.0 8.,5 8..0 7.,6 11,.7 12,.8 12,.5 11..5 9..7 9..0 9.,1 10,,6 10,,2 10. 2 10.,1 9.,7 11 .6 12 .7 12,.4 11,.2 9,.3 8,.7 8,.8 10,.5 10,.1 10,.0 9,.9 9..5 11,.4 12,.7 12,.1 10,,7 8..8 8,.3 8..6 10.,3 9..8 9..9 9..7 9,,3 AVERAGE RATE ON LOANS MADE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER, ANNUAL RATE Ql. . . 02... Q3. . . 04.. . 9 .1 9 .2 9 .0 8..5 9 .6 9 .6 9,.7 9..1 9,.9 9,,9 9..7 9..0 9 .8 9,.7 9,.6 9.,3 9 .3 9 .5 9,.7 9,,0 8..0 8..3 8..3 7,,7 10,.2 10,,1 10,,1 9..9 10 .0 9 .9 10 .1 9,.7 9 .8 9 .8 9 ,1 9,.3 8,.6 8,.6 8,.4 8..1 8.2 8.5 8.5 7.9 9,.9 9,,9 9.,9 9..4 Ql... 02.. . 03... 04.. . 8..2 8.,8 9.,0 9. 2 9..1 9..0 9.,0 9.,3 9,,1 9,,1 9.,1 9. 2 9.,2 9,,1 9,.2 9, 4 9.,2 8.,2 9,,0 9, 4 7,,2 7. 9 8. 5 8. 6 9.,7 9.,5 9.,7 9.,9 9.,4 9..4 9.,6 9..7 9.,2 9..2 9.,4 9,.4 7,,7 8.,3 8..4 8. 8 7.4 8.1 8.4 8.7 9..4 9.,3 9.,6 9,,5 ESTIMATES FROM THE QUARTERLY SAMPLE SURVEY OF BANK NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS TO FARMERS TABLE I.F PERCENTAGE OF LOANS MADE WITH A FLOATING INTEREST RATE BY SIZE OF LOAN ($l,000s) BY PURPOSE OF LOAN ALL LOANS FEEDER LIVESTOCK OTHER LIVESTOCK OTHER CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES FARM MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 12 OTHER BY SIZE OF BANK to 9 10 to 24 25 to 99 100 and over LARGE OTHER 49,.3 50,.4 53,.6 52,.0 57,.3 60,.1 58,.6 61,,7 60,.6 60,.1 57,.6 52,.6 51,,5 49,.6 59,,2 59,,0 59,.1 61,.0 59,.8 63,,9 61,.5 58,,0 54,.8 54,.6 60.8 58.5 66.0 64.0 61.2 64.5 70.4 73.6 69.1 68.0 62.7 60.2 67,,0 69,.1 67,,5 67,.8 78,.6 83,,9 80,.2 76,,7 62,.2 67,.0 51,.1 63,,1 79,.1 83,.6 69,.4 70,.0 82,.9 86,.9 83,.7 79,,9 65,.4 71,,4 57,.1 70,.8 52,.6 47,> 2 59,.3 56,.1 55,,5 58,.9 59,.7 62,,3 57,.9 57,.9 51,,3 50,,5 1 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE OF LOANS MADE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 61,.4 61,.0 65,.2 65,.1 71,.7 76,.7 75,.1 73,.8 63,.1 65,.8 54,.4 60,,7 65,.3 71,.4 76,.8 81,.5 78,.5 84,.6 82,.9 83,,9 58,.1 66,.4 55,.0 45,.6 39,,5 40,.0 61,,6 69,.3 63,.5 70,.0 74,.3 75,.9 71,,2 73,,2 59,.4 66,,0 63 .8 59 .7 68 .3 68,.8 66,.3 70,.3 72 .3 73,.0 67,,3 67,,8 68 .5 68,.6 54,.9 32,,9 40,.0 40,.6 47,.8 48,.2 51,.6 53,,1 32,.9 49,,9 46,.7 58,.2 63.2 73.6 51.2 50.3 75.3 78.1 75.7 72.2 61.4 64.3 42.0 52.0 AVERAGE PERCENTAGE DURING FIRST FULL WEEK OF SECOND MONTH OF QUARTER 1998 Ql. Q2. Q3. Q4. 56.6 54.6 54.7 51.6 59.4 76.2 51.6 39.9 56.6 60.1 54.2 66.2 70, 1999 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 46.4 73.7 70.2 62.3 50.2 66.6 44.6 31.2 65.2 72.5 69.1 59.9 68, 58.1 48.2 28.3 38.9 41.2 34.9 47.4 44.4 60.5 58.0 55.7 56.4 56.7 50.5 57.7 55.9 67.0 61.9 59.3 60.8 52.6 51.7 52.4 48.1 53.9 57.6 61.9 55.8 59.1 51.1 44.1 45.7 63, 72, 71, 65.4 33.9 75.5 48.8 54.1 33.2 79.2 86.3 82.6 47.0 57.6 50.2 54.2 50.4 58.8 51.4 58.0 55.0 66.2 62.3 57.9 43.5 83.3 86.4 66.5 43.4 91.5 94.3 91.8 50.8 58.6 48.6 41.7 68. 67, e # # e Table I.G Effective interest rate (percent) All Loans Under 5 percent e # # » • , . • • PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF NON-REAL-ESTATE FARM LOANS MADE BY BANKS.1 BY EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATE Memo: Percentage Distribution of Number of Loans, November 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Aug 99 Nov 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 - - - 12 8 - - - - 7 8 3 * * * - - - - 1 * * * 5 9 3 * * 8 6 23 9 1 7 11 27 34 31 30 7 25 5.0 to 5.9 - - - 6.0 to 6.9 - - 2 20 26 15 10 19 7.0 to 7.9 - - 16 16 16 27 12 8.0 to 8.9 . . . . . , - - 10 22 20 23 9.0 to 9 . 9 . . . . . 1 3 17 16 18 20 30 25 31 22 36 30 38 10.0 to 10.9... 10 36 18 7 3 6 25 16 16 12 17 39 22 11.0 to 11.9 . . . 29 24 22 1 2 6 9 4 6 2 5 17 6 12.0 to 12.9 . . . 41 30 10 - 1 1 1 * 1 5 1 13.0 to 13.9 . . . 17 5 4 - 1 * * * * 1 * 14.0 to 14.9 . . . 2 1 - * — * * * 15.0 to 15.9... - 16.0 to 16.9... - - - - - - - - * - - - — - - * * — — * — - - - - - - - - - — — — — 17.0 to 17.9 . . . - — - - - - - - - - — — * 18.0 to 18.9... - - - - - - - - - - - — — 19.0 to 19.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - * — 20.0 to 20.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - — — — 21.0 to 2 1 . 9 . . . - - - - - - - - - — — — — 22.0 to 22.9 . . . — - - - - - - - - - - — — 23.0 to 2 3 . 9 . . . — - - - - - - - - - - - — 24.0 to 24.9 . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - — 25.0 and over.. - - — - - - - - - - - - - 1. Percentage distribution of the estimated total dollar amount of non-real-estate farm loans of $1,000 or more made by insured commercial banks during the week covered by the survey, which is the first full business week of the month specified. Data are estimates from the Federal Reserve survey of terms of bank lending to farmers. Percentages may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. * Indicates less than .5 percent. 14 TABLE I.H.I SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING NOVEMBER 1-5, 1999 Loans to farmers Size class of loans (thousands) all sizes $1-9 $10-24 $25-49 $50-99 $100-249 $250 and over ALL BANKS 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans (thousands) Number of loans Weighted average maturity (months)1 Weighted average repricing interval (months)2 Weighted average risk rating 3 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent)4 7 Standard error 5 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan Feeder livestock 9 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 051,926 31,823 14.73 7.02 2.83 63,260 15,627 9.95 5.31 2.67 112,099 7,487 11.91 6.48 2.77 126,997 3,743 13.59 7.86 2.57 174,266 2,659 20.01 11.25 2.81 236,799 1,661 16. 29 8. 84 2. 78 338,506 645 13.20 3.77 2.99 9.17 0.07 9.88 0.08 9.68 0.12 9.46 0.19 9.45 0.07 8. 93 0. 16 8.77 0.10 9.92 8.53 10.47 9.21 10.25 9.11 10.24 8.57 10.20 8.65 9,,58 8,,30 9.43 8.03 9.37 9.17 9.39 9.20 8.42 8.69 9.88 9.94 9.94 9.95 9.88 9.32 9.28 9.74 9.81 9.54 9.78 9.26 9.45 9.62 9.62 9.45 8.32 8.85 9.43 9.32 9.49 9.64 8.52 9.53 9,,38 8,,26 9,.09 9,,15 8,.12 8 .57 9.20 9.01 9.05 8.40 8.51 8.38 62.85 65.84 18.75 2.91 55.51 64.36 26.07 0.20 58.53 65.02 26.94 0.19 50.02 48.15 25.32 0.48 60.89 61.02 22.78 0.88 56 .02 62 .30 15 .65 0 .63 76.26 77.99 12.30 7.87 14.17 9.36 44.03 8.17 4.58 19.69 6.85 9.10 62.73 10.43 1.78 9.10 9.00 7.98 60.96 10.39 2.21 9.46 20.30 11.60 47.31 7.11 1.56 12.13 19.82 12.47 37.19 9.71 2.80 18.01 16 .93 6 .72 45 .74 8 .43 9 .52 12 .67 10.12 9.28 36.01 6.42 4.49 33.67 14.45 78.91 8.51 80.16 8.66 83.93 9.95 82.10 15.24 79.33 12 .81 83 .07 19.90 72.69 TABLE I.H.2 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING NOVEMBER 1-5, 1999 Loans to farmers Size class of loans (thousands) all sizes $1-9 $10-24 $25-49 $50-99 $100-249 $250 and over 598,545 12, 146 13 .38 3 .96 3 .06 20,372 5,:193 8 .52 2 .79 3 .14 42,465 2 / 799 10 .42 3 .58 3 .17 52,628 1,!528 11 .48 3 .71 3 .07 82,420 l,:221 11 .06 4 .15 3 .12 131,566 927 16 .03 6 .27 3 .03 269,094 478 14 .00 2 .99 3 .04 8 .88 0 .07 9 .67 0 .10 9 .48 0 .05 9 .30 0 .13 9 .13 0 .14 8 .88 0 .10 8 .58 0 .16 9 .65 8 .16 10 .24 9 .11 10 .15 8 .87 9 .92 8 .57 9 .92 8 .57 9 .50 8 .30 9 .11 8 .01 9 .37 8 .81 9 .10 8 .81 8 .68 9 .51 9 .47 9 .82 9 .84 9 .47 9 .53 9 .38 9 .63 9 .18 9 .13 9 .31 9 .34 9 .36 9 .49 9 .15 9 .42 9 .02 9 .11 9 .68 8 .94 9 .39 8 .88 8 .90 8 .91 8 .76 9 .27 8 .42 8 .92 8 .40 8 .51 81 .27 87 .70 18 .30 75 .98 84 .91 30 .72 72 .04 82 .34 32 .21 80 .50 84 .07 24 .72 77 .86 86 .10 26 .57 80 .82 90 .36 16 .42 84 .54 88 .67 12 .29 9 .63 10 .03 39 .68 7 .22 4 .73 19 .69 7 .17 6 .53 61 .07 5 .08 1 .51 9 .10 9 .48 7 .76 52 .73 7 .90 2 .08 9 .46 16 .77 12 .79 47.27 4 .86 1 .87 12 .13 14 .47 13 .76 35 .16 5 .50 3 .83 18 .01 12 .90 9 .46 41 .33 7 .58 5 .92 12 .67 5 .35 9 .25 35 .10 8 .08 5 .65 33 .67 16 .49 76 .33 17 .75 74 .82 11 .57 83 .52 10 .20 83 .91 14 .80 80 .42 15 .81 78 . 66 19 .25 71 .43 LARGE FARM LENDERS 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans (thousands) Number of loans Weighted average maturity (months)1 Weighted average repricing interval (months)2 Weighted average risk rating 3 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent)4 7 Standard error 5 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 15 16 TABLE I.H.3 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING NOVEMBER 1-5, 1999 Loans to farmers Size class of loans (thousands) 15 $250 and over 1 6 LI sizes $1-9 $10-24 $25-49 $50-99 $100-249 453,382 19,676 16 .44 10,.97 2 .44 42,889 10,434 10.60 6.49 2.41 69,634 4,688 12.78 8.20 2.49 74,368 2,215 15.05 10.77 2.08 91,846 1,438 27.61 17.39 2.45 105,233 734 16. 61 11. 97 2. 41 69,411 167 10.19 6.73 2.79 9 .54 0 .16 9.98 0.10 9.80 0.19 9.57 0.32 9.74 0.22 9. 00 0. 29 9.53 0.07 10 .20 9 .00 10.52 9.25 10.65 9.24 10.38 8.57 10.42 9.00 9. 58 8. 30 9.50 9.14 9 .37 9 .73 9 .69 9 .60 8 .05 9 .60 10.06 10.09 9.99 9.97 10.04 9.41 9.12 9.96 9.91 9.69 10.14 9.15 9.52 9.86 9.80 9.43 7.50 8.62 9.44 9.65 9.80 9.62 7.76 10.91 9. 37 6. 00 9. 29 9. 40 7. 79 9. 18 9.14 11.25 9.50 9.42 10.00 9.36 38 .54 36 .98 19 .35 0 .03 45.79 54.61 23.86 0.29 50.29 54.46 23.73 28.46 22.73 25.74 45.65 38.51 19.38 25. 01 27. 23 14. 68 44.18 36.59 12.36 20 .18 8 .48 49 .77 9 .42 4 .38 19 .69 6.70 10.32 63.52 12.98 1.91 9.10 8.71 8.11 65.98 11.91 2.28 9.46 22.79 10.75 47.34 8.70 1.34 12.13 24.63 11.31 39.02 13.48 1.87 18.01 21. 97 3. 28 51. 25 9. 48 14. 02 12. 67 28.62 9.40 39.56 10.96 44.07 33.67 11 .75 82 .32 4.12 82.70 6.88 84.18 9.77 80.82 15.63 78.35 9. 05 88. 59 22.42 77.58 OTHER BANKS 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans (thousands) Number of loans Weighted average maturity (months)1 Weighted average repricing interval (months)2 Weighted average risk rating 3 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent)4 7 Standard error 5 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H - - - - TABLE I.H.4 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING NOVEMBER 1-5, 1999 Loans to farmers Risk Rating All Minimal Low Moderate Acceptable Special Not Rated Not Reported ALL BANKS 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) 1 maturity (months) repricing interval (months)2 risk rating 3 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent)4 Standard error 5 7 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 1,051,926 31,823 14,.73 7,.02 2,.83 96, 672 4,i053 16 .92 7 .13 1 .00 199,189 5,1835 17 .79 12 .62 2 .00 386, 791 10,!951 14 .99 4 .62 3 .00 129,i254 3,1532 12 .10 2 .43 4 .00 55,!929 l,:330 7 .13 1 .73 5 .00 71,522 l,i064 14 .10 12 .92 112,571 5,057 13.44 9.83 9 .17 0,.07 8 .82 0 .16 9 .14 0 .12 9 .01 0 .12 9 .10 0 .15 9 .47 0 .22 9 .05 0 .44 10.06 0.32 9,.92 8,.53 9 .60 8 .25 9 .75 8 .57 9 .58 8 .30 9 .49 8 .57 10 .20 8 .84 10 .00 8 .09 10.79 9.20 9,.37 9,.17 9,.39 9,.20 8,.42 8,.69 8 .86 7 .62 9 .26 8 .61 8 .08 8 .14 9 .28 9 .69 9 .27 9 .85 8 .12 8 .43 9 .47 8 .86 9 .24 8 .89 8 .64 8 .49 8 .87 8 .31 9 .18 9 .89 8 .67 9 .04 9 .23 8 .67 9 .57 10 .57 11 .19 9 .43 9 .78 9 .68 9 .64 8 .57 9 .47 7 .58 10.14 9.77 10.01 10.64 8.67 10.82 62.85 65.84 18.75 2.91 54,.38 54,.14 16,.46 20,.78 50,.31 64..85 15,.11 0..60 72,.36 71,.46 20.03 2,.41 92 .47 74 .73 13 .41 91,.18 83,.83 7,.98 21,.99 76,.87 0,.76 37.53 32.22 45.69 14.17 9.36 44.03 8.17 4.58 19.69 24..16 7,.71 46,.95 5,.37 6,.92 8,.89 24..48 13..51 34..74 4..27 7..02 15..98 9..51 6,.73 45,.43 11,.94 6,.16 20..23 5 .37 7 .49 38 .28 8 .30 0,.64 39,.93 16,.62 4,.21 58,.78 1,.68 0,.50 18..71 5,.69 7,.77 51,.44 11,.78 3,.61 22 .93 17.70 18.21 47.68 5.26 10.50 8.86 14.45 78.91 11,.98 82,.75 17..58 73..07 15..74 78..68 18,.47 78,.67 19..51 68..09 0,.15 95,.08 8.52 82.13 17 TABLE I.H.5 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING NOVEMBER 1-5, 1999 Loans to farmers Risk Rating All Minimal Low Moderate Acceptable Special Not Rated Not Reported 38,264 999 10.67 5.14 LARGE FARM LENDERS 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans (thousands) Number of loans Weighted average maturity (months)1 Weighted average repricing interval (months) 2 Weighted average risk rating 3 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent) 7 Standard error 5 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 4 598,545 12,146 13.,38 3.,96 3.,06 33,231 720 7. 50 2. 53 1.00 95,085 1,538 11. 37 5. 38 2. 00 265,905 5,403 16. 94 4. 62 3. 00 92,859 2,219 13. 21 1. 98 4. 00 50,858 1,032 5.13 0. 61 5. 00 22,343 236 11. 08 7. 00 8.,88 0.,07 9. 13 0, 17 8. 90 0, 23 8.,73 0. 22 8.89 0. 10 9. 46 0. 28 7.,86 0.,39 9.54 0.27 9.,65 8,,16 9.,60 8,,74 9.,69 8.,22 9.,38 8,,03 9. 38 8. 56 10. 20 8. 75 8.,57 7.,36 10.01 9.20 9,.37 8,,81 9,.10 8 .81 8 ,68 8 .50 9.,00 9.,66 9,,28 7,.79 7,.92 8,.62 9.,51 9.,19 9.,10 10..04 8,.72 8,.20 9.,41 8.,39 8,,90 8..72 8,.66 8,.48 9. 41 8. 14 9. 00 9. 07 8. 67 8. 90 9. 27 8. 67 9. 58 10. 42 11. 19 9. 41 9.,65 9..17 8,.35 8,.62 9,.47 7,.56 9.96 9.44 9.56 9.27 7.79 9.72 81 .27 87 .70 18 .30 5 .09 79,.03 79.11 11 .55 60 .46 70,.32 93 .77 22 .34 1 .25 83,.14 90.05 15 .30 3 .45 95. 11 92. 69 11. 63 94. 20 84.,85 2.,47 63 .07 99 .56 2 .42 57.30 48.56 81.38 9 .63 10 .03 39 .68 7 .22 4.73 19 .69 31 .12 3 .29 57 .08 2 .13 0 .41 8 .89 18 .51 10 .40 31 .40 1 .80 7 .73 15 .98 6 .39 7 .72 36 .22 13 .37 7 .42 20.23 2. 97 9. 89 43.,06 4.,56 0.,90 39.,93 15.,54 4.,62 60.,04 0.,67 0.,55 18.,71 0 .50 7 .56 17 .78 2 .99 3 .87 22 .93 4.97 40.02 46.71 5.45 7.12 8.86 16 .49 76 .33 5 .00 90 .91 27 .84 63 .46 20 .26 73 .52 8.,95 87.,86 16.,23 70.,12 0 .48 91 .27 8.01 86.67 - - - - - - 18 TABLE I.H.6 SURVEY OF TERMS OF BANK LENDING MADE DURING NOVEMBER 1-5, 1999 Loans to farmers Risk Rating All Minimal Low Moderate Acceptable Special Not Rated Not Reported OTHER BANKS 7 1 2 3 4 5 Amount of loans Number of loans Weighted average Weighted average Weighted average (thousands) 1 maturity (months) repricing interval (months)2 risk rating 3 6 Weighted average interest rate (percent)4 Standard error 5 7 8 Interquartile Range 6 a.75th Percentile b.25th Percentile By purpose of loan 9 Feeder livestock 10 Other livestock 11 Other current operating expenses 12 Farm machinery and equipment 13 Farm real estate 14 Other Percentage of the amount of loans With floating rates Made under commitment Callable Subject to prepayment penalty By purpose of the loan 19 Feeder livestock 20 Other livestock 21 Other current operating expenses 22 Farm machinery and equipment 23 Farm real estate 24 Other By type of collateral 25 Farm real estate 26 Other 15 16 17 18 Footnotes are at the end of table I.H 453,382 19,676 16 .44 10 .97 2 .44 63,441 3,333 21 .86 9 .54 1 .00 104,:104 4,:298 23 .53 19 .11 2 .00 120, 885 5,1548 10 .75 4 .61 3 .00 36,:395 l,:313 9 .46 3 .54 4 .00 5,1070 298 26 .23 12 .86 5 .00 49, 179 828 14 .97 14 .63 74,307 4,058 14.86 12.24 9 .54 0 .16 8 .66 0 .27 9.36 0 .19 9 .62 0 .17 9 .63 0 .36 9 .50 0 .20 9 .59 0 .38 10.34 0.40 10 .20 9 .00 9 .31 8 .25 9 .92 8 .87 10 .14 9 .07 10 .51 9 .36 9 .75 8 .91 10 .00 9 .50 11.50 9.68 9 .37 9 .73 9 .69 9 .60 8 .05 9 .60 8 .76 7 .27 9 .25 8 .73 8 .08 7 .99 9 .15 8 .52 11 .41 9 .95 10 .43 9 .82 9 .36 8 .96 9 .45 10 .65 7 .25 9 .75 9 .79 9 .91 9 .79 8 .57 9 .28 10 .29 10.16 9 .39 9 .81 7 .47 10 .53 9 .53 10 .59 9 .66 9 .48 8 .57 9 .15 38 .54 36 .98 19 .35 0 .03 41 .47 41 .06 19 .03 0 .20 32 .04 38 .43 8 .51 48 .66 30 .56 30 .42 85 .73 28 .91 17 .96 60 .92 73 .59 63 .21 3 .33 66 .56 41 .26 27.35 23.80 9.43 20 .18 8 .48 49 .77 9 .42 4 .38 19 .69 20 .52 10 .02 41 .64 7 .07 10 .33 8 .89 29 .92 16 .36 37 .79 6 .52 6 .37 15 .98 16 .36 4 .55 65 .71 8 .81 3 .39 20 .23 11 .49 1 .38 26 .06 17 .83 7 .09 39.93 27 .45 76 .28 46 .14 11 .80 665 .17 18 .71 8 .06 10 .53 66 .73 17 .13 26 .07 22.93 24.25 11.13 48.18 7.07 34.50 8.86 11,.75 82,.32 15,.64 78,.47 8 .21 81 .85 5 .78 90 .02 42 .76 55 .22 52 .31 47 .69 19 .49 96 .81 20.28 79.79 - - 10.24 10.81 8.67 11.19 - NOTES TO TABLE I.H The Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers collects data on gross loan extensions made during the first full business week in the mid-month of each quarter by a sample of 250 banks of all sizes. The sample data are blown up to estimate the lending terms at all insured agricultural banks during that week. The estimated terms of bank lending are not intended for use in collecting the terms of loans extended over the entire quarter or those residing in the portfolios of banks. Loans of less than $1,000 are excluded from the survey. 1. Average maturities are weighted by loan size and exclude loans with no stated maturity. 2. The repricing interval measures the period from the date the loan is made until it first may be repriced. For floating-rate loans that are subject to repricing at any time-such as many prime-based loans-the repricing interval is zero. For floating rate loans that have a scheduled repricing interval, the interval measures the number of days between the date the loan is made and the date on which it is next scheduled to reprice. For loans having rates that remain fixed until the loan matures (fixed-rate loans), the interval measures the number of days between the date the loan is made and the date on which it matures. Loans that reprice daily are assumed to reprice on the business day after they are made. 3. A complete description of these risk rating categories is available from the Banking and Money Market Statistics Section, mail stop 81, the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551. The category "Moderate Risk" includes the average loan, under average economic conditions, at the typical lender. The weighted-average risk ratings are calculated by assigning a value of "1" to minimal risk loans; "2" to low risk loans; "3" to moderate risk loans; "4" to acceptable risk loans; and "5" to special mention and classified loans. These values are weighted by loan amount and exclude loans with no risk rating. Some of the loans are not rated for risk. 4. Effective (compounded) annual interest rates are calculated from the stated rate and other terms of the loans and weighted by loan size. 5. The chances are about two out of three that the average rate shown would differ by less than this amount from the average rate that would be found by a complete survey of lending at all banks. 6. The interquartile range shows the interest rate range that encompasses the middle 50 percent of the total dollar amount of loans made. 7. Among banks reporting loans to farmers, most "large banks" (survey strata 1 and 2) had over $25 million in farm loans, most "other banks" (survey strata 3 to 5) had farm loans below $25 million. Table I.I Survey of Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers, (selected quarters) LS CB USDA Farm Production Region NP AP SE DL 2.2 12.0 25.6 17.2 9.1 4.6 4.8 8.5 5.9 9.8 Sample Coverage, Aug. 1999 survey (%) 18.8 3.4 10.1 12.9 20.5 7.9 5.2 5.8 22.3 47.1 Avg. Loan Size, Aug. 1999 survey ($1000) Survey date: Nov. 1992 Feb. 1993 May 1993 Aug. 1993 Nov. 1993 Feb. 1994 May 1994 Aug. 1994 Nov. 1994 Feb. 1995 May 1995 Aug. 1995 Nov. 1995 Feb. 1996 72.0 19.6 30.1 29.7 41.5 21.5 24.3 33.0 50.9 83.1 7.9 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.3 7.7 8.7 9.1 10.2 11.7 9.0 9.6 10.8 8.8 (32) Weighted Average Interest Rate During Sample Week 9.2 8.3 7.9 5.5 7.3 8.4 9.0 8.0 8.0 5.6 8.3 7.8 8.7 8.1 7.9 5.2 8.4 7.8 7.5 8.2 8.0 5.7 7.3 7.0 8.1 7.4 7.8 5.3 6.3 8.2 8.6 7.9 7.5 5.2 7.3 7.7 9.0 8.0 8.1 6.1 8.2 7.8 8.6 8.3 8.6 6.5 8.6 7.6 9.7 8.9 8.5 7.1 8.5 8.8 10.7 10.0 9.9 8.6 7.2 10.4 10.4 9.3 9.4 8.5 10.2 10.7 10.3 9.3 9.8 8.1 9.6 10.4 10.3 8.3 9.6 7.9 10.1 10.3 9.9 8.0 9.4 7.3 9.4 10.9 (.25) (1.10) (.22) (.99) 031) 022) o NE <N Proportion of farm loans outstanding, Jun. 1999 SP MN PA 8.2 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.4 8.6 9.0 10.4 10.1 10.1 9.8 9.9 (.24) 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 8.0 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 8.9 085) 6.9 6.5 6.8 7.2 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 8.5 9.4 9.3 9.5 8.9 8.1 (.65) May 1996 10.3 (.25) 10.2 (.13) 7.3 093) 9.0 (38) 8.1 (JO 9.6 (.68) 10.4 036) 9.8 (.25) 8.7 078) 8.3 065) Aug. 1996 8.3 (.87) 9.9 (.18) 8.9 (.49) 9.4 (.25) 7.6 (.82) 9.4 059) 10.0 037) 9.4 018) 8.9 058) 8.1 056) Nov. 1996 10.1 (.21) 9.9 (.14) 9.3 (.11) 9.0 055) 7.5 08% 9.3 057) 9.9 040) 9.1 (.25) 9.0 075) 8.6 048) Feb. 1997 8.8 (.11) 9.5 (.26) 9.5 (12) 9.3 (.22) 8.0 051) 9.9 032) 9.5 035) 9.5 (.24) 10.1 027) 8.7 035) May 1997 9.4 (.43) 10.1 (.17) 9.2 (.22) 9.5 (.27) 8.3 062) 9.9 066) 10.2 029) 9.7 (.23) 10.0 029) 8.7 051) Aug. 1997 9.3 (.47) 9.8 (.18) 9.6 (.14) 9.9 (.08) 8.5 (.26) 10.1 (.24) 9.9 012) 9.7 027) 10.5 023) 8.7 (.34) Nov. 1997 9.2 (.41) 9.5 (.17) 9.3 (.10) 9.8 (.08) 7.5 (.60) 9.8 Oil) 9.4 (.05) 9.4 038) 10.1 057) 8.8 031) Feb. 1998 9.3 (.51) 9.0 (.27) 9.4 (.17) 9.8 (.09) 7.3 (.77) 10.0 (.48) 10.3 013) 9.8 (.30) 9.6 043) 8.5 019) May 1998 9.2 (.49) 9.4 (.24) 9.2 (.15) 9.7 010) 7.6 (.54) 10.2 012) 10.3 (.34) 9.6 030) 9.8 (-42) 8.4 039) Aug. 1998 10.2 (.19) 9.5 (21) 9.5 (.12) 9.5 017) 8.8 017) 9.5 (.29) 9.7 (.29) 9.5 (.28) 9.6 (.47) 8.5 (33) Nov. 1998 9.4 (01) 9.2 (28) 8.7 (.20) 9.0 012) 8.3 038) 9.4 031) 9.7 (.20) 9.2 032) 9.1 059) 8.0 (.38) Feb. 1999 8.4 (.40) 8.9 (.20) 8.9 (.15) 9.1 012) 8.2 020) 9.0 023) 9.6 013) 9.1 (.52) 9.0 041) 7.5 051) May 1999 9.6 (.19) 9.1 (13) 8.8 (.15) 9.0 008) 8.0 016) 9.0 (33) 9.8 (.35) 9.0 (.43) 8.7 (.40) 8.0 022) Aug. 1999 10.2 (.29) 8.9 (.56) 8.7 (.14) 9.3 018) 8.2 (.22) 8.9 (37) 10.0 055) 8.8 065) 9.0 019) 8.5 023) Nov. 1999 9.1 (67) 9.2 (.67) 8.8 (29) 9.4 015) 8.3 031) 8.8 (.50) 9.8 (.37) 9.0 037) 9.5 016) 8.8 (.28) * NE is Northeast, LS is Lake States, CB is Cornbelt, NP is Northern Plains, AP is Appalachia, SE is Southeast, DL is Delta States, SP is Southern Plains, MN is Mountain States, and PA is Pacific. Standard errors are in parentheses below the more recent estimates. Standard errors are calculated from 100 replications of a bootstrap procedure (resampling of banks) in each region. SECTION II: SELECTED STATISTICS FROM THE QUARTERLY REPORTS OF CONDITION OF COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLES: Page Commercial banks: II.A ILB II.C II.D II.E Estimated volume of farm loans at insured commercial banks Estimated delinquent non-real-estate farm loans at insured commercial banks Estimated net charge-offs of non-real-estate farm loans at insured commercial banks Estimated delinquent real estate farm loans at insured commercial banks Estimated net charge-offs of real estate farm loans at insured commercial banks 24 25 26 27 28 Agricultural banks: II P Distribution of agricultural banks by ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans II.G Distribution of agricultural banks by rate of return to equity II.H Loan-deposit ratios at agricultural banks II I Failures of agricultural banks 29 30 31 32 SOURCES OF DATA: The data in tables H.A through II.H are prepared using data from the quarterly reports of condition and income for commercial banks. Delinquencies and charge-offs of non-real-estate farm loans for the nation as a whole (table ILB and table n.C) are estimated from reports of banks that hold more than 90 percent of total non-real-estate farm loans. The incomplete coverage arises because banks with less than $300 million in assets have been excused from some reporting requirements. First, these smaller banks report delinquencies and charge-offs of "agricultural loans" according to the particular bank's own definition, which may include loans that are secured by farm real estate. Furthermore, small banks that hold less than 5 percent of total loans as farm production loans are not required to report any information regarding delinquencies or charge-offs of "agricultural loans." In constructing the data presented in the tables, banks that are not required to report these data are assumed to have the same delinquency rates as those that do report. In 1991, banks began to report delinquencies of loans that are secured by farm real estate. These data, which are shown in tables E D and H E, are reported by all banks, regardless of the size of the institution or the relative amounts of farm loans that they hold. Because "agricultural loans" and loans secured by farm real estate may overlap for some small banks, it is unclear whether it is proper to add the data in table ILB to its counterpart in table II.D to obtain total agricultural delinquencies. A similar caveat applies to the data concerning charge-offs in tables n.C and H E. Examination of total lending at banks that have a high exposure to agricultural loans provides an alternative perspective on the agricultural lending situation. Agricultural banks in table II.D through table II I are those that have a proportion of farm loans (real estate plus nonreal estate) to total loans that is greater than the unweighted average at all banks. The estimate of this average was 16.2 percent in September of 1999. Information on failed banks (table ELI) is obtained from news releases of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, with agricultural banks broken out in our tabulation according to the definition stated in the previous paragraph. ^ SECTION II: (continued) Revisions to Previous Estimates During the preparation of the current edition of the Databook, two programming errors were discovered that affect some of the data presented in this section. First, the volume of delinquencies and charge-offs of loans secured by farm real estate had not been included in the totals presented in Table II.D and Table HE. As a result, the numbers reported in the current publication are greater than those previously published. Second, a small number of noncommercial banking institutions had been included in the calculation of the farm loan ratio beginning in 1995. Because these institutions had very few agricultural loans, including them pulled down the average farm loan ratio, and as a result, a small number of banks that had a farm loan ratio between the old threshold and the new were incorrectly included with agricultural banks in the calculations presented in tables H F through HI. Recent Developments: Loans outstanding: During the third quarter of 1999, growth in the total volume of farm loans fell to the lowest level in more than a decade. The volume of non-real-estate farm loans, fell more than 4 percent from the previous year, while the volume of farm real estate loans was 8.6 percent greater than one year earlier. Some of the increase of real estate loans relative to other farm loans likely reflects more stringent collateral requirements by lenders. Problem loans: Through the end of the third quarter of 1999, the rate of delinquency on either farm non-real-estate loans or loans secured by farm real estate was about the same as one year earlier. To some degree, the improvement in the volume of delinquencies reflects an increase in chargeoffs as banks dealt with an upturn in problem loans that began to surface towards the end of 1998. Also reflecting this improvement in banks balance sheets, the proportion of agricultural banks that reported a level of nonperforming loans that was less than 2 percent of total loans was above the proportion below this threshold one year earlier. Performance of agricultural banks: The average rate of return on assets at agricultural banks in through the third quarter of 1999 slipped slightly relative to Q3 of 1998, as the chargeoffs noted above cut a bit into earnings. The capital ratio for agricultural banks edged down relative to one year earlier, though it remained roughly in line with the average over the past 3 or 4 years. The ratio of loans to deposits at agricultural banks increased from the previous year, and remains remarkably high by historical standards. Failures of agricultural banks: Despite the hints of financial stress at some agricultural banks, only one failed in 1999, and one agricultural bank failed in 1998. Given the strong capital positions and low levels of problem loans of most agricultural banks, the number of failures seems likely to remain fairly small in coming quarters. However, if recent financial problems in the farm sector persist, stress among agricultural banks likely would rise further as well. TABLE II.A FARM DEBT OUTSTANDING AT COMMERCIAL BANKS, END OF QUARTER PERCENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR PERCENT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER LOAN VOLUME, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS NONRBAL ESTATE LOANS TOTAL LOANS REAL ESTATE LOANS NONRBAL ESTATE LOANS 1990 04... 50.1 17.2 32.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 1991 Ql... Q2... 03... Q4... 49.5 52.6 53.9 53.0 17.5 18.1 18.3 18.4 32.0 34.5 35.6 34.6 -1.3 6.2 2.5 -1.6 1.5 3.4 1.4 0.6 1992 Ql... Q2... Q3... Q4... 51.9 55.1 56.2 54.5 18.9 19.5 19.9 19.9 33.0 35.6 36.2 34.7 -2.1 6.2 1.9 -2.9 1993 Ql... Q2... Q3... Q4... 52.8 56.0 58.0 57.7 20.0 20.6 20.8 20.9 32.8 35.4 37.1 36.8 1994 Ql... Q2... 03... Q4... 56.8 61.1 63.0 61.3 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.6 1995 Ql... 02... Q3... 04... 59.9 63.5 65.3 63.7 1996 Ql... 02... 03... 04... TOTAL LOANS NONREAL ESTATE LOANS 5.7 3.5 6.9 -2.8 7.7 3.1 -2.7 7.4 7.2 6.6 5.7 4.3 5.5 5.8 7.0 9.1 8.1 7.1 5.1 2.7 3.3 1.9 -0.2 -4.6 7.8 1.9 -4.4 4.9 4.9 4.2 2.9 8.2 8.1 8.6 7.8 3.1 3.2 1.9 0.2 -3.2 6.0 3.5 -0.5 0.5 3.1 1.2 0.1 -5.3 7.8 4.9 -0.8 1.7 1.6 3.2 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.7 5.0 -0.5 -0.6 2.4 6.2 35.5 39.2 40.6 38.7 -1.5 7.6 3.1 -2.7 1.8 3.2 2.2 0.7 -3.4 10.2 3.6 -4.6 7.6 9.1 8.7 6.2 6.4 6.4 7.5 8.2 8.3 10.7 9.3 5.2 22.9 23.6 23.8 23.9 36.9 40.0 41.5 39.8 -2.3 6.1 2.9 -2.5 1.6 2.7 1.1 0.4 -4.6 8.2 3.9 -4.1 5.4 4.0 3.7 3.9 8.0 7.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 2.0 2.3 2.8 61.7 65.7 66.6 65.5 24.0 24.7 24.9 25.0 37.7 41.0 41.6 40.5 -3.1 6.5 1.3 -1.6 0.5 2.7 1.1 0.3 -5.3 8.9 1.5 -2.8 3.1 3.4 1.9 2.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 2.0 2.7 0.3 1.8 1997 Ql... 02... Q3... 04... 63.8 69.0 71.1 71.3 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.1 38.4 42.8 44.2 44.2 -2.6 8.2 3.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 2.9 0.7 -5.1 11.5 3.1 0.0 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.9 5.5 6.2 8.1 8.5 2.0 4.4 6.0 9.1 1998 Ql... 02... 03... 04... 70.1 75.0 76.3 74.7 27.6 28.5 28.9 29.3 42.4 46.5 47.4 45.5 -1.7 7.1 1.7 -2.0 1.8 3.2 1.3 1.3 -3.9 9.6 1.9 -4.0 9.8 8.6 7.2 4.8 9.0 8.8 7.2 7.8 10.4 8.5 7.3 3.0 1999 Ql... 02... 03... 72.7 75.8 76.8 29.7 30.8 31.4 42.9 45.1 45.5 -2.8 4.4 1.3 1.7 3.5 1.9 -5.6 5.0 0.9 3.7 1.1 0.7 7.6 8.0 8.6 1.1 -3.1 -4.1 • • # e # | REAL ESTATE LOANS # # # | " 24 TABLE II.B ESTIMATED DELINQUENT FARM NON-REAL-ESTATE LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AS PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING FARM PRODUCTION NONPERFORMING TOTAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONPERFORMING NONACCRUAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL 3,.1 3..2 2,.8 2,,2 2..0 2..1 2..4 2,.0 2,,2 1,,3 1.,3 1.,0 0.,8 0,,9 0,,9 1..2 0..9 1.,0 1,,9 1.,9 1,.8 1,,4 1,,1 1,,1 1..3 1..1 1,,2 0..3 0,,3 0..3 0.,2 0.,2 0.,3 0,,3 0. 2 0.,3 1.,6 1.,6 1.,5 1, 2 0.,9 0.,9 1.,0 0. 9 0.,9 2 .3 2 .4 0 .8 1,.2 1 .5 1,.3 0,.4 0,.3 1 .0 1 .0 TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONACCRUAL December 31 of year indicated1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1,,0 1..1 1..0 0,.8 0..8 0,.8 1.,0 0..9 1.,0 0,.4 0,.4 0,.3 0,.3 0..3 0,.4 0..5 0..4 0..5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0,.5 0,,5 0..5 0.,4 0,.3 0.,3 0,,4 0,.4 0,,4 End of quarter 03... 04.. . 1 1 1 .0 1..0 0 .3 0,.5 0.6 0.5 0 .2 0 .1 0. 4 0,.4 01.. . 02... 03... Q4. . . I 1 I 1 I-.3 1-.0 o ,9 o.,9 0 .7 0,.4 0..3 0..4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0 .2 0,.2 0,,1 0.,1 0,.4 0,,4 0,,4 0,.4 3 .3 2 .4 2 .0 2 .0 1,.7 1,.0 0,.7 0,,9 1 .5 1,.4 1,,3 1..1 0,.5 0,,5 0,,3 0,, 2 1 .0 0 .9 0,.9 0,.9 Ql. . . Q2. . . Q3. . . 04... 1. 3 1. 1 1. 0 1. 0 0..8 0..5 0,,4 0.,5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0..2 0,,2 0,.2 0.,1 0. 4 0. 4 0. 4 0. 4 3,.2 2,,4 2,.1 2.,2 1.,8 1.,1 0.,8 1..0 1.,3 1.,3 1. 3 1. 2 0. 4 0.,5 0. 4 0. 3 0,,9 0..8 0..9 0.,9 01.. . 02... 03... 1, 6 1. 3 1. 0 0, 9 0. 5 0. 4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.,2 0. 2 0. 2 0. 4 0. 5 0. 5 3.,7 2.,8 2,,2 2. 1 1. 2 0. 8 1. 5 1. 6 1. 4 0. 5 0. 5 0. 4 1,,0 1.,1 1. 0 1 1 Data are estimates of the national totals for farm non-real-estate loans. After 1984, estimates are based on reports from banks that hold more than 90 percent of such loans. Earlier, only large banks that held about one-fourth of such loans reported nonaccrual and renegotiated farm loans; for other banks,estimates of delinquent farm loans are based on a study of delinquent total loans at these banks. TABLE II.C ESTIMATED NET CHARGE-OFFS OF NON-REAL-ESTATE FARM LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS* CHARGE-OFFS AS A PERCENTAGE OF SUCH LOANS OUTSTANDING ESTIMATED AMOUNT MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTAL 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 82 54 69 51 95 93 87 ** Q1 Q2 Q3 04 ANNUAL TOTAL 14 7 10 -2 16 6 4 18 20 16 11 14 27 19 15 37 29 5 15 13 24 19 24 35 18 26 33 25 30 50 45 0.24 0.15 0.19 0.13 0.24 0.23 0.20 ** ** Q1 Q2 03 04 0,.04 0.,02 0,.03 -0,.00 0,.04 0,.01 0,.01 0 .04 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.09 0..08 0,,01 0,,04 0.,03 0.,06 0..05 0,.05 0..08 0..05 0,.07 0..08 0..06 0,,07 0.,11 0,.09 * * * Data are estimates of the national charge-offs of farm non-real-estate loans based on reports from banks that hold more than 90 percent of the outstanding national volume of such loans. Additional uncertainty of the estimates arises because small banks report only charge-offs of 'agricultural' loans as defined by each bank for its internal purposes. Banks first reported these data on the March 1984 Report of Income. 25 26 TABLE II.D DELINQUENT FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AS PERCENTAGE OF OUTSTANDING FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS NONPERFORMING TOTAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONPERFORMING NONACCRUAL PAST DUE 30 TO 89 DAYS ACCRUING TOTAL 2, .1 2.,4 2,.6 2,,3 2..5 2,.3 0..7 0,.9 0,.9 0..8 0,.9 0,.8 1,.3 1..6 1..7 1..4 1,,6 1,.5 0.,5 0..6 0,,7 0.,6 0..7 0,.7 0.,8 0,.9 1,.0 0,,8 0,.9 0..8 TOTAL PAST DUE 90 DAYS ACCRUING NONACCRUAL -December 31 of year indicated1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0..5 0,,6 0..6 0,.6 0,.1 0,,1 0,.2 0,,2 0,.2 0,.2 0,,3 0..2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.,2 0.,2 0..2 0..2 0.,2 0,.3 -End of quarter- 1996 02. 03. 04. 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1997 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.6 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 03. 04. 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1999 Ql. 02. 03. 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 1998 Ql. 02. 0.7 All commercial banks began to report these data in 1991. 3.6 2.7 2.3 TABLE II.E NET CHARGE-OFFS OF REAL ESTATE FARM LOANS INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS* ESTIMATED AMOUNT MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTAL 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 44 24 10 12 7 16 6 * * CHARGE-OFFS AS A PERCENTAGE OF SUCH LOANS OUTSTANDING Q1 Q2 03 Q4 ANNUAL TOTAL 7 2 1 -0 0 -1 -1 -0 11 -1 1 3 1 -0 3 3 16 12 3 6 2 3 -0 5 10 11 6 4 4 14 5 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.02 * * * * Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0.,038 0,,010 0.,003 -0,,001 0,,000 -0,,003 -0,,004 -0,,001 0,,058 -0,,004 0.,003 0.,011 0,,003 0.079 0.056 0.013 0.027 0.009 0.010 0.049 0.054 0.026 0.016 0.017 0.054 0.016 -0.,001 0,,009 0,,011 -0.000 0.015 * * * All commercial banks began to report these data in 1991. 27 TABLE II.F DISTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURAL BANKS BY THE SHARE OF THEIR LOANS THAT ARE NONPERFORMING* 28 NONPERFORMING LOANS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LOANS TOTAL UNDER 2.0 2.0 TO 4.9 5.0 TO 9.9 10.0 TO 14.9 15.0 TO 19.9 20.0 AND OVER -Percentage distribution, December 31 of year indicated1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 100,.0 100,.0 100,.0 100,,0 100,.0 100,,0 100.,0 100..0 100,.0 69 .6 70 .8 76,.2 80,.6 85..5 83,.4 81, 9 84,.5 81,.7 22 .7 22 .3 18,.9 15..9 12..3 14,.0 15,.4 12,.9 15,.1 6 .4 5 .8 3 .9 2 .8 1 .9 2..1 2,.3 2,.5 2,.8 1,.0 0,.7 0,,8 0,.6 0..2 0,,3 0,.2 0.,1 0..3 0..2 0..3 0..1 0,.1 0,.1 0,,1 0,.1 0,.1 0,.0 0,.0 0 .1 0,.0 0,.0 0,.0 0..1 0,.1 0,.0 0,.1 - Percentage distribution, end of quarter 1996 Q4. 100.0 81.9 15.4 2.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 1997 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 79.1 80.5 81.8 84.5 16.7 15.8 15, 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1998 Ql. 02. 03. 04. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80.6 80.8 2.8 2.9 81, 16.3 15.9 16.2 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1999 Ql. 02. 03. 100.0 100.0 100.0 77, 78, 80.4 17.8 16.9 15.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 80, 12, * Nonperforming loans are loans in nonaccrual status or past due 90 days or more. Renegotiated or restructured loans in compliance with the modified terms are not included. Agricultural banks are defined in the introduction to section II. TABLE II.O SELECTED MEASURES OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL AND OTHER BANKS* AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN TO EQUITY NET INCOME AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE EQUITY AT AGRICULTURAL BANKS ALL BANKS NEGATIVE 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1990. 1991. 1992. 1993. 1994. 1995. 1996, 1997. 1998, 4.9 4.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.6 2.0 0 TO 4 5 TO 9 7.5 7.7 5.0 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.9 8.7 33.4 32.2 25.5 27.8 31.4 37.1 33.4 34.5 35.6 10 TO 14 15 TO 19 37.6 12.9 39.2 13.4 41.1 19.8 40.6 18.5 40.1 16.9 39.6 13.4 41.6 14.2 39.7 14.2 35.5 13.4 25 20 TO AND 24 OVER 2.6 1.1 2.5 0.9 5.1 1.7 4.6 1.3 3.3 0.9 2.3 0.6 2.6 0.5 3.1 1.1 3.5 1.3 AVERAGE CAPITAL RATIO (PERCENT) NET CHARGE-OFFS AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LOANS RATE OF RETURN TO ASSETS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS AGRICULTURAL BANKS OTHER SMALL BANKS 10.8 10.9 12.6 12.4 11.8 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.3 8.5 8.9 11.5 12.4 12.5 12.1 12.3 12.3 11.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.7 11.2 10.9 11.0 10.9 9.0 9.2 9.5 10.0 9.9 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.4 12.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.3 10.9 10.4 3.0 6.0 9.0 11.4 3.2 6.4 9.6 12.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.0 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.5 3.0 6.1 8.9 11.3 3.3 6.4 9.1 11.7 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 11.2 11.2 11.4 10.9 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.5 2.9 6.0 9.1 3.0 6.1 8.9 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.4 QUARTERLY 1996 Q4... 1997 01... Q2... Q3... Q4... ** WW ** ** 1998 Ql... Q2... 03... Q4... 1999 Ql... Q2... Q3... | | 1 ** WW WW WW 1 1 1 ** * Agricultural and other banks are defined In the Introduction to section II; small banks have less than 500 million dollars in assets. Total primary and secondary capital (items that are available at the end of the period specified) are measured as a percentage of total assets. Quarterly data in the lower panel are cumulative through the end of the quarter indicated and, for periods of less than a year, are not comparable to the annual data in the upper panel. 30 TABLE II.H AVERAGE LOAN-DEPOSIT RATIOS AT AGRICULTURAL BANKS IN SELECTED FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS* DECEMBER 31 U.S. OF BANKS CLEVELAND TO OF DEPOSITS BANKS ATLANTA TO OF DEPOSITS BANKS CHICAGO MINNEAPOLIS ST. LOUIS KANSAS CITY DALLAS SAN FRANCISCO MINIMUM FARM LOAN RATIO LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS NUMBER LOANS TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO OF TO DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS BANKS DEPOSITS 1993..,. 1994 .... 1995. . , . 1996 1997 1998 3723 3530 3352 3239 3101 2968 0.582 0.626 0.639 0.656 0.685 0.683 67 56 53 49 45 40 0.660 0.707 0.720 0.771 0.747 0.763 130 124 118 113 113 99 0.618 0.644 0.657 0.684 0.704 0.709 912 857 816 795 759 733 0..600 0..642 0.,652 0..680 0..719 0. 711 432 398 375 363 346 321 0.590 0.627 0.651 0.663 0.698 0.693 669 656 619 609 574 558 0 .615 0,.675 0..682 0..699 0,.725 0, 715 1063 1012 959 928 890 868 0 ,566 0 ,618 0 .634 0,,643 0 .680 0,.681 378 360 344 313 312 289 0.442 0.476 0.489 0.491 0.523 0.529 58 52 53 52 49 48 0,.733 0..784 0..740 0. 735 0..661 0..660 17 .04 17 .10 16 .83 16,.45 16,.44 16,.34 1996 Q4... 3239 0.656 49 0.771 113 0.684 795 0.680 363 0.663 609 0.699 928 0.643 313 0.491 52 0.735 16.45 1997 01., Q2. . 03.. 04. . 3219 3202 3161 3101 0.659 0.690 0.702 0.685 45 50 51 45 0.775 0.802 0.801 0.747 115 129 128 113 0.699 0.727 0.735 0.704 782 772 771 759 0.684 0.710 0.729 0.719 357 359 355 346 0.664 0.699 0.717 0.698 603 591 583 574 0.699 0.739 0.749 0.725 922 910 898 890 0.643 0.677 0.688 0.680 326 321 308 312 0.498 0.535 0.543 0.523 51 49 49 49 0.723 0.705 0.674 0.661 16.04 16.63 16.70 16.44 1998 Ql.. 02. . 03. . 04. . 3058 3065 3036 2968 0.686 0.717 0.724 0.683 45 46 46 40 0.761 0.769 0.786 0.763 109 110 109 99 0.713 0.736 0.751 0.709 740 737 733 733 0.724 0.746 0.750 0.711 328 341 341 321 0.691 0.725 0.734 0.693 570 570 569 558 0.727 0.769 0.768 0.715 886 889 880 868 0.683 0.713 0.721 0.681 314 306 294 289 0.511 0.540 0.549 0.529 50 49 49 48 0.662 0.709 0.704 0.660 16.32 16.81 16.78 16.34 1999 01.. 02. . 03. . 2957 2936 2918 0.689 0.716 0.735 42 43 44 0.793 0.824 0.844 100 101 106 0.719 0.733 0.746 720 719 716 0.719 0.743 0.765 317 314 319 0.688 0.730 0.745 550 552 547 0.723 0.762 0.775 868 856 846 0.684 0.700 0.721 297 287 275 0.532 0.542 0.567 48 51 51 0.692 0.733 0.737 16.04 16.26 16.23 * The loan-deposit ratio is defined as total loans divided by total deposits, that shown in the last column, as described in the introduction to section II. Agricultural banks are defined as banks with a farm loan ratio at least as great as TABLE II.I FAILURES OF AGRICULTURAL BANKS* NUMBER OF FAILURES 1988. . . .,. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994. . . , 1995 1996 1997.... 1998 1999 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 11 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 5 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 12 5 6 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 7 5 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 ANNUAL TOTAL 36 22 17 8 7 5 0 0 2 1 1 1 * Data exclude banks assisted to prevent failure. Industrial banks and mutual savings banks also are excluded. Agricultural banks are defined in the introduction to section II. 32 SECTION HI: F E D E R A L RESERVE B A N K QUARTERLY S U R V E Y S OF F A R M CREDIT CONDITIONS A N D F A R M L A N D VALUES TABLES; III.A Nonreal estate lending experience III.B Expected change in non-real-estate loan volume and repayment conditions III.C Average loan/deposit ratio, and other indicators of relative credit availability III.D Interest rates HI E Trends in real estate values and loan volume Page 35 37 39 41 43 SOURCES OF DATA: Data are from quarterly surveys of agricultural credit conditions at commercial banks. These surveys are conducted at the end of each quarter by five Federal Reserve Banks. The size of the surveys differs considerably, as is noted in the information below. In addition, the five surveys differ in subject matter covered (as is evident in the tables), wording of basically similar questions, and type of banks covered. Most of the differences in wording are reflected in the use of different column headings on the two pages of each table. The states included in each district are indicated in the table headings; states that fall only partly within a given district are marked with asterisks. Beginning in 1994, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank revised its survey considerably. Many questions were changed and it was not always possible to match the data to the categories that we have shown in previous editions of the Databook. Whenever possible, we have tried to fit the data from the revised survey into the older format. Series that were discontinued show no data for the first quarter, while those that were added suddenly appear. When a significant break in the data occurred, we included the new data and added a footnote to highlight the changes. Research departments at each of the five Reserve Banks issue more detailed quarterly reports on their survey results; these reports are available at the addresses given below. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Box 834, Chicago, Illinois, 60690 The sample includes member banks at which farm loans represented 25 percent or more of total loans as of June 1972 (a 10 percent standard is used for banks in the state of Michigan). The sample has undergone periodic review. The latest survey results were based on the responses of about 450 banks. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Federal Reserve P.O. Station, Kansas City Missouri 64198 The original sample chosen in 1976 had 181 banks selected from banks at which farm loans constituted 50 percent or more of total loans, with appropriate representation of all farm areas. The sample was redrawn and significantly expanded in 1987; roughly 300 banks responded to the latest survey. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480 Before 1987, the sample provided a cross-section of banks of all sizes that were engaged in farm lending. Members of the Upper Midwest Agricultural Credit Council formed the core of the survey panel. Beginning in 1987, the sample was redrawn to include only banks at which farm loans represented 25 percent or more of total loans. As outlined above, the Minneapolis survey was changed considerably beginning in the first quarter of 1994. In recent surveys, about 130 banks responded. Section HI; (continued) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. P.O. Box 655906, Dallas, Texas 75265-5906 The sample is stratified regionally and includes banks at which farm loans are relatively important or which hold a major portion of bank loans in their region. The sample was enlarged in the first quarter of 1985 and was redrawn in the second quarter of 1989. The results for the most recent quarter were based on the responses from about 200 respondents. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Richmond, Virginia 23261 The number of agricultural banks in this district is much smaller than those of the other districts. When the survey was initiated in 1975, the sample consisted of 43 banks of all sizes; banks with larger amounts of farm loans were sampled more heavily. More recently, the sample has consisted of about 30 banks, roughly three-fourths of which typically respond to the quarterly surveys. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: Bankers responding to the surveys indicated that the demand for farm loans through the third quarter was about in line with that seen for the past few years However, bankers in all districts, except Dallas, that report, noted that rates of loan repayment through the fall of 1999 remained considerably lower than those reported one year earlier. This general weakness in loan repayments is a slight contrast to the fairly typical level of loan delinquencies that was shown in section II of the Databook, although it is consistent with the small uptick in the volume of farm loans that were charged off that was noted in that section. All districts noted elevated incidence of renewals and extensions of loans, and bankers in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas districts reported higher collateral requirements than had been the norm in recent years, suggesting some continuing concerns about repayment prospects. Scanning through reported expectations for the third quarter, loans for farm machinery are anticipated to remain quite weak in all districts that report these data, likely reflecting cautious equipment spending by farmers in the face of weak farm returns. In addition, bankers in the Chicago district anticipate loans for general operating expenses to be stronger than usual. Banks in the Kansas City, Dallas, and Minneapolis districts, which had in the last few surveys been reporting a pickup in referrals to nonbank agencies, noted such referrals this past fall about in line with those seen one year earlier. Rates of interest reported in these Reserve bank surveys generally moved up in the third quarter of 1999, with the exception of the Kansas City district, where on balance, rates were about flat. As discussed in section I of the Databook, estimated rates increased some more in the fourth quarter of 1999, suggesting that coming Reserve bank surveys should show a tendency to increase as well. Relative to one year earlier, nominal prices of nonirrigated farmland in the third quarter were up in the Chicago, Dallas, and Minneapolis districts. However, prices fell sharply in the Richmond district and were about flat for all types of farm land in the Kansas City district. In addition prices for irrigated land and ranch land were slipped in the Dallas district. • • • • e e # • , . • # 34 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.A FARM NONREAL ESTATE LENDING EXPERIENCE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) DEMAND FOR LOANS LOWER III.A1 1997 Q3 •. • Q4... SAME FUND AVAILABILITY HIGHER LOWER SAME LOAN REPAYMENT RATE HIGHER LOWER SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( IL* SAME HIGHER 47 52 42 34 17 11 69 69 14 20 15 19 77 68 8 14 1998 Ql... Q2 • • • Q3... 04... 8 15 19 20 49 44 46 47 42 42 35 34 12 13 10 6 64 71 75 66 24 16 14 28 27 31 43 51 64 65 53 42 1999 Ql... 02... 03... 19 21 22 42 44 46 39 36 32 8 10 17 65 72 71 27 18 12 63 52 41 35 45 55 III.A2 1997 03... 04... 61 60 33 34 1998 Ql... 02... 03... 04... 5 7 14 13 69 63 59 66 1999 Ql... 02... 03... 15 14 18 66 66 60 III.A3 1997 03... 04... 6 67 72 12 13 25 30 26 20 12 16 16 9 68 69 69 73 20 20 22 9 10 22 68 73 66 HIGHER LOWER SAMEI HIGHER io 14 77 72 13 14 9 4 3 7 8 3 3 7 64 64 56 45 2 3 4 4 3 3 39 44 53 1 1 | 1 0 1 92 90 8 9 29 33 41 48 1 1 1 0 89 86 80 75 11 14 19 25 57 53 44 0 0 0 69 70 74 31 30 26 7 13 75 76 18 12 20 15 15 18 15 25 44 47 76 72 55 51 22 17 12 46 31 29 I 1 1 | | 1 1 0 91 92 8 8 15 9 79 79 7 12 9 3 2 2 6 4 2 3 79 74 60 56 15 22 38 41 53 66 68 1 3 3 3 3 3 52 67 69 45 30 28 14 15 71 64 15 21 | 1 | 1 0 * ** 91 *** 9 *** 1 1 79 80 20 19 2 1 1 79 86 86 19 13 13 0 0 88 82 12 18 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( LA*, NM*, TX ) 57 58 28 26 1998 Ql... 02... 03... 04... 14 24 28 17 62 49 50 54 1999 Ql.. . 02... 03... 27 22 29 49 63 52 | I | 1 21 16 15 1<? | 1 1 1 SAME TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( CO,r KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK, WY) AGRICULTURALi BANKS 6 I 1 LOWER COLLATERAL REQUIRED IN*, IA, MI*, WI* ) AGRICULTURAL BANKS I* I 1 RENEWALS OR EXTENSIONS |1 |1 3 3 80 74 17 24 16 21 67 60 17 19 24 27 22 30 3 4 5 2 76 70 71 77 21 26 24 22 16 29 52 52 71 64 45 42 13 8 3 7 14 9 3 3 69 64 51 44 16 26 46 52 2 0 1 0 86 82 73 69 13 18 26 31 25 15 19 5 2 5 72 74 80 22 24 15 48 25 27 48 63 62 4 12 11 4 8 10 43 61 64 52 31 27 0 0 1 66 74 73 34 26 27 |1 |1 | |1 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.A (CONTINUED) FARM NONREAL ESTATE LENDING EXPERIENCE COMPARED WITH NORMAL CONDITIONS (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) LOWER Ill •A4 LOWER HIGHER SAME HIGHER SAME 1 12 72 70 18 18 1 81 82 18 18 32 36 38 39 0 2 0 0 77 70 73 75 23 28 27 25 47 47 44 45 49 48 0 0 0 74 68 66 26 32 33 13 85 70 5 18 0 0 83 85 17 15 www 23 15 65 58 12 27 31 24 61 58 8 18 oi... www *** 02... 03... 04... *** www *** *** *** *** www www www www 13 15 27 12 59 66 56 63 28 19 17 24 35 44 52 45 54 52 42 46 11 4 6 8 4 3 5 2 64 61 57 59 *** *** *** www *** *** www www www 8 11 14 71 64 71 21 25 15 56 52 59 34 41 39 10 7 2 6 3 7 io 01.. . 02... 03... 04... 01... 02... 03... 1 I |1 11 o *** 1 11 SAME1 HIGHER NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI* ) *** 1997 03... 04.. . LOWER HIGHER LOWER *** III •A5 1999 SAME *** 1999 01.. . 02... 03... 1998 LOWER HIGHER *** 1997 03... 04... 1998 SAME COLLATERAL REQUIRED RENEWALS OR EXTENSIONS LOAN REPAYMENT RATE FUND AVAILABILITY DEMAND FOR LOANS 1 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MD, NC, SC, VA, WV* ) 1 1 I 1 7 88 78 5 5 28 23 25 32 10 16 21 35 88 77 71 55 3 6 7 10 8 6 7 10 80 74 75 55 13 19 18 35 3 0 0 0 85 81 71 71 13 19 29 29 28 30 23 24 4 26 76 93 71 0 4 3 7 4 3 72 89 71 21 7 26 0 0 0 68 81 77 32 19 23 76 60 22 35 20 13 7 13 0 6 0 3 73 71 75 65 0 0 11 3 4 11 69 67 66 73 70 12 18 8 13 29 19 73 73 64 68 41 19 26 59 81 63 11 1 18 2 5 15 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 36 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.B FARM NONREAL ESTATE LOAN VOLUME EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH VOLUME OF LOANS MADE A YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) TOTAL LOWER SAME | I | 1 HIGHER 9 61 54 28 37 1998 Ql... Q2. . • Q3... Q4. . . 11 14 21 12 51 59 39 48 1999 Ql.. . Q2... Q3.. . 17 22 19 43 50 50 III.B2 1997 Q3 • • • Q4... 12 8 38 26 40 40 33 38 38 31 61 59 52 65 39 28 31 27 29 22 65 65 60 1998 Ql... Q2... Q3... 04... 16 30 32 26 63 51 48 49 1999 Ql... 02... 03... 29 24 23 50 61 60 | 1 | 1 1998 Ql.. . Q2. . . 03... Q4... 1999 oi... 02... 03... | 1 | 1 | 1 LOWER SAME CROP STORAGE HIGHER LOWER SAME OPERATING HIGHER LOWER SAME FARM MACHINERY HIGHER LOWER SAME HIGHER 24 24 69 69 7 7 6 3 10 4 22 24 20 14 67 68 71 76 8 6 18 20 19 15 70 73 75 15 14 62 69 24 17 20 19 20 25 25 34 37 34 68 58 56 53 21 16 17 21 20 24 64 64 58 18 | 1 | 1 io 12 59 62 31 26 11 8 9 10 13 12 12 32 64 64 33 59 10 9 10 35 36 22 9 5 59 49 32 46 23 24 55 9 7 7 9 9 43 51 39 34 58 51 57 7 13 21 11 11 13 13 18 67 68 21 14 I 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 12 11 52 53 36 36 50 42 52 57 17 33 68 55 56 56 27 36 27 11 5 9 33 43 46 56 46 41 63 65 62 31 30 33 6 5 5 I ! | 1 | 1 | 1 12 11 66 57 22 32 16 17 63 67 21 16 17 24 81 72 2 4 7 8 7 13 17 20 19 15 71 79 78 78 7 0 3 6 17 10 21 17 78 76 58 68 6 15 21 14 15 23 24 23 64 53 46 49 21 23 30 28 21 32 41 40 59 58 54 50 20 10 5 10 14 16 17 15 17 23 79 71 76 5 6 1 15 15 24 76 68 61 9 17 14 23 19 20 50 56 56 26 25 24 43 26 34 49 61 58 8 13 8 20 17 60 79 20 3 20 8 61 66 20 26 29 18 54 66 17 16 1 I 1 | I I 1 | | 1 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 1* 7 74 77 11 17 8 18 15 27 75 79 69 65 30 39 42 65 57 45 | 1 1 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 25 III.B3 | I | 1 65 69 68 62 1997 03... 04... HIGHER 23 24 1* 14 I | 1 LOWER SAME DAIRY SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*f IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS III.B1 1997 Q3... 04... FEEDER CATTLE 21 13 79 83 o 4 17 4 15 8 20 27 0 18 76 68 95 82 4 4 13 13 20 26 87 80 74 I I 1 19 20 81 70 0 10 4 5 5 0 9 15 21 5 87 80 79 95 4 5 0 0 13 17 19 19 81 70 62 65 6 13 19 15 8 10 11 13 74 77 71 80 18 13 18 7 18 29 43 40 70 58 46 60 13 13 11 0 0 0 0 25 37 35 75 53 65 0 11 0 26 30 40 65 60 48 9 10 12 33 44 29 56 52 56 11 4 15 45 44 49 55 52 49 0 4 3 1 1 1 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.B (CONTINUED) EXPECTED DEMAND FOR FARM LOANS DURING NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH NORMAL DEMAND (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) FEEDER LIVESTOCK LOWER SAME III.B4 HIGHER OTHER INTERMEDIATE LOWER SAME HIGHER FARM REAL ESTATE LOWER SAME HIGHER OTHER OPERATING LOWER SAME HIGHER FARM MACHINERY LOWER SAME HIGHER NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) 1997 Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4... 32 28 31 52 62 63 17 10 7 12 18 18 79 73 75 9 10 7 28 28 24 61 58 60 11 14 16 6 7 7 64 67 74 30 27 19 18 25 24 75 58 63 7 17 14 1998 Ql. .. Q2. .. Q3. . . Q4... 38 32 38 28 58 67 50 66 4 1 13 7 18 13 37 28 72 80 55 64 9 7 9 9 26 25 33 27 56 58 52 57 18 17 15 16 8 8 9 6 65 65 58 70 27 27 34 24 22 36 59 46 63 58 37 52 15 7 4 2 1999 Ql. . . Q2. . . Q3... 20 26 39 76 64 58 3 9 3 25 36 44 67 51 50 8 13 6 32 32 40 55 49 48 13 19 12 4 11 15 68 57 56 28 32 29 51 61 65 46 33 33 3 5 2 38 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.C AVERAGE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO AND OTHER INDICATORS OF RELATIVE CREDIT AVAILABILITY (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) AVERAGE LOAN-TODEPOSIT RATIO, END OF QUARTER PERCENT III.CI Q3 • • • Q4... 1 | 1 REFUSED OR REDUCED A FARM LOAN BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF LOANABLE FUNDS LOAN/DEPOSIT RATIO IS LOWER AT THAN DESIRED DESIRED LEVEL HIGHER THAN DESIRED NUMBER OF FARM LOAN REFERRALS TO ACTIVELY SEEKING NEW FARM LOAN ACCOUNTS CORRESPONDENT BANKS NONE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER LOWER SAME HIGHER 70 71 | 1 | 43 44 34 36 23 21 | | I | www www www www | I | I www www www www www www www www www www www www 69 73 72 70 43 43 39 50 39 34 38 34 18 22 22 16 www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www Ql. . . Q2... Q3. .. 70 72 73 58 49 42 27 35 33 14 15 25 www www www www www www www www www www www www Q3... Q4... I 1 I 1 66 66 I 1 I 55 51 8 7 33 31 | | 1 1 72 69 | 1 | 1 82 78 66 68 68 67 54 54 53 56 8 8 8 11 27 31 32 27 1 2 3 2 70 66 63 65 78 78 79 79 Ql... Q2... Q3... 66 66 67 61 59 56 7 8 10 26 26 29 2 1 3 66 69 67 79 80 80 54 50 *** *** *** *** 1998 Ql... *** *** *** *** Q3. . . Q4... 49 53 53 51 1999 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . 51 51 53 *** www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www 75 73 6 9 87 83 7 8 8 82 10 6 6 80 80 13 14 4 8 7 81 79 84 15 13 9 www 6 7 87 88 7 89 7 7 88 89 5 5 70 73 74 72 5 7 6 91 88 90 4 5 4 67 66 71 www www 21 12 72 80 6 8 www www 17 8 6 8 69 81 81 74 14 11 13 18 8 7 9 72 75 78 20 18 13 www 7 6 4 www | 1 | www ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( LA*, NM*, TX) 1997 Q3•.• Q4... 02... | I | I TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( CO, KS, MO*, NB, NM*, OK, WY) AGRICULTURAL BANKS Ql. . . Q2... Q3. .. Q4.. . III.C3 NONE COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER HIGHER LOWER SAME SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS Ql... Q2... Q3.. . Q4. . . III.C2 NONBANK AGENCIES **# WW* *** www www www www www www www www www www www *** www www www www 14 9 78 84 8 7 www www www www www www www www 18 8 9 12 75 85 86 79 8 6 4 8 www www www www 8 8 12 81 84 78 11 8 10 www FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.C (CONTINUED) AVERAGE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO AND OTHER INDICATORS OF RELATIVE CREDIT AVAILABILITY (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS REPORTING) AVERAGE LOAN-TODEPOSIT RATIO, END OF QUARTER PERCENT III.C4 LOWER AT THAN DESIRED DESIRED LEVEL HIGHER THAN DESIRED 12 13 *** *** 29 7 12 10 9 24 16 26 10 4 5 *** 72 72 *** *** *** *** *** *** 1998 Ql... Q2... Q3... Q4... 73 74 74 71 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 56 15 1999 Ql... Q2. • . Q3. . « 69 70 70 68 73 63 9 11 11 1997 Q3... Q4... || |1 NUMBER OF FARM LOAN REFERRALS TO ACTIVELY SEEKING NEW FARM LOAN ACCOUNTS NONBANK AGENCIES CORRESPONDENT BANKS NONE COMPARED WITH NORMAL NUMBER LOWER SAME HIGHER NONE COMPARED WITH NORMAL NUMBER LOWER SAME HIGHER NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( Ml*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) 1997 Q3. . . Q4 • • « III.C5 REFUSED OR REDUCED A FARM LOAN BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF LOANABLE FUNDS LOAN/DEPOSIT RATIO IS *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 35+ 35 59 61 32+ 36 58 52 10 12 34 29 27 7 62 66 67 85 28 27 24 7 58 62 64 81 14 11 12 11 3 6 7 91 88 85 3 4 7 68 78 80 28 18 13 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ( MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 72 73 I| 1 | 45 41 53 51 3 8 | 1 | 1 2 o 80 73 |1 |1 85 87 0 0 15 13 o o | I 1 78 74 0 0 23 15 0 10 1998 Ql... Q2. . . Q3. . . Q4. . . 72 73 72 73 46 48 62 63 41 48 35 30 14 3 4 7 0 0 0 0 78 81 70 71 92 93 96 93 0 0 0 0 8 7 4 7 0 0 0 0 83 100 85 83 3 0 0 0 8 0 11 13 6 0 4 3 1999 Ql... Q2... Q3. . . 74 73 74 62 54 46 28 42 46 10 4 9 0 0 0 64 74 66 78 88 88 4 8 3 15 4 9 4 0 0 74 84 76 4 8 3 19 8 12 4 0 9 •Beginning in 1994, Minneapolis omitted the response "none" for the number of referrals to either correspondent banks or nonbank agencies. The column that has been added combines responses that formerly would have been reported as either "none" or "low". 39 e e e e e e e ' • e 40 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.D INTEREST RATES ON FARM LOANS MOST COMMON INTEREST RATE ON FARM LOANS (AVERAGE, PERCENT) FEEDER CATTLE LOANS III.D1 1997 Q3... 04... | 1 j | OTHER OPERATING LOANS LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*Z IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 1998 Ql... Q2. . . 03... 04... 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.1 1999 Ql... Q2. . . 03... 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.0 9.1 9.3 III.D2 INTERMEDIATE NONREAL ESTATE *** *** *** * ** *** *** *** *** *** 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.4 TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1997 Q3... Q4... 9.9 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.3 9.4 9.3 1998 Ql... Q2... 03... Q4... 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.1 1999 Ql... Q2... Q3... 9.4 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.3 9.5 9.6 8.7 8.9 9.0 8.8 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.D (CONTINUED) INTEREST RATES ON FARM LOANS MOST COMMON INTEREST RATE ON FARM LOANS (AVERAGE, PERCENT) FEEDER CATTLE LOANS III.D3 OTHER OPERATING LOANS INTERMEDIATE NONREAL ESTATE LONG-TERM REAL ESTATE LOANS NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MI*, MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) *** *** 9.8 10.0 9.7 10.0 9.3 9.4 1998 Ql • • • Q2... Q3... Q4... *w* *** *** *** 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.6 8.8 1999 Ql... Q2... Q3... *** *** *** 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 8.6 8.7 8.7 1997 Q3... Q4... | |1 III.D4 ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 1997 Q3. Q4.. 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.4 9.7 9.7 1998 Ql., 10.5 10.4 10.3 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.3 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.2 9.8 9.8 9.2 9.3 9.5 02.. Q3. Q4.. 1999 Ql.. Q2. . Q3. . 10.0 10.2 III.D5 10.1 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 1997 Q3. Q4. 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.2 1998 Ql.. Q3 • • Q4.. 9.9 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.0 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.0 8.7 1999 Ql. Q2. . Q3. 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.0 9.3 9.5 8.9 8.9 9.3 8.6 8.6 02. 9.1 41 42 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.E TRENDS IN FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES AND LOAN VOLUME MARKET VALUE OF GOOD FARMLAND PERCENTAGE CHANGE DURING QUARTER ALL III.El DRYLAND IRRIGATED *** www www *** 1998 Ql. Q2 • 03. 04. 2 0 -1 0 www www www www www www www www 1999 Ql. Q2. Q3 • 0 1 0 www www www www www www 1997 Q3. Q4. Ql... 02... 03... 04... 1999 Ql. Q2. 03. III.E3 RANCHLAND ALL DRYLAND IRRIGATED *** 7 *** *** *** *** 10 *** *** www *** WW* www WW* WW* *** *** www www 10 8 4 1 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** www *** 0 0 2 www www www *** *** www www DOWN STABLE UP LOWER SAME HIGHER *** *** www 2 2 60 62 38 36 12 11 62 62 26 27 10 17 51 43 76 67 40 50 15 16 9 8 17 25 45 31 57 61 47 53 26 14 8 16 41 45 33 50 47 61 9 8 7 30 36 34 54 54 54 17 9 12 80 88 15 8 13 18 79 77 FIFTH (RICHMOND) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (MD, NC, SC, VA, WV*) 12 5 *** www www *** -1 3 -10 6 www www www www www www www www 2 5 -24 *** *** *** *** *** *** WW* 13 41 www www www www www www www www www www 3 10 7 13 74 81 89 81 23 10 4 6 16 20 29 34 70 67 61 66 14 13 11 0 www www www 3 4 14 83 78 66 14 19 20 36 31 32 64 65 62 0 4 6 www www www www 19 20 -4 -3 www www www www www www www www www 1 2 •13 www www www www www www ELEVENTH (DALLAS) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (LA*, NM*, TX) 1997 Q3. 04. www www 0 1 -3 4 www www 1998 Ql., Q2. 03. 04., www -1 -1 -0 www www www www www www 0 -0 2 3 6 1999 Ql.. 02.. 03., www www www www www www 1 -0 1 -0 RANCHLAND SEVENTH (CHICAGO) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (IL*, IN*, IA, MI*, WI*) AGRICULTURAL BANKS 1997 Q3. Q4. III.E2 TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM A YEAR EARLIER EXPECTED TREND IN FARM REAL ESTATE LOAN VOLUME DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) 2 5 7 6 9 -2 -5 0 -3 -3 -1 4 1 2 2 5 5 1 1 www www www www www www 10 15 77 69 13 16 1 2 7 16 21 www www www www www www www www www www www www 12 23 27 26 73 67 66 60 15 10 7 13 4 17 8 www www www www www www www www www 28 20 26 61 63 66 10 17 8 -3 -2 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK QUARTERLY SURVEYS OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS TABLE III.E (CONTINUED) TRENDS IN FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES AND LOAN VOLUME MARKET VALUE OF GOOD FARMLAND ALL i n .E4 * * * * * * 2 1998 Ql. 02. 03. 04. * * * 2 *** 0 1999 Ql. 02. Q3. 4t ft h .. i n •E5 1997 03. 04. 1998 01. 02. 03. 04. .. 1999 Ql. 02. • 03. • # • I l 1 1 l 1 i I RANCHLAND ALL DRYLAND IRRIGATED RANCHLAND DOWN STABLE UP LOWER SAME HIGHER www www www www www www TENTH (KANSAS CITY) FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (CO, KS, MO*, NE, NM*, OK, WY) 1997 Q3. Q4. .. IRRIGATED DRYLAND TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT QUARTER (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM A YEAR EARLIER PERCENTAGE CHANGE DURING QUARTER EXPECTED DEMAND FOR FARM REAL ESTATE LOANS DURING THE NEXT QUARTER, COMPARED WITH NORMAL (PERCENTAGE OF BANKS) 1 1 3 0 www www 4 5 6 5 9 7 3 0 3 3 o www www www www 6 6 4 1 7 5 3 1 1 www www www -1 -1 -0 -1 -1 -0 1 —I —I *** -l -1 *** *** *** 0 0 0 0 1 - 1 *"2 - 0 0 www www www www www www 7 9 5 5 www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www 1 -2 1 www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www 28 24 58 60 14 16 I | I 1 | | I NINTH (MINNEAPOLIS) FEDERAL RESERVs DISTRICT (MI* , MN, MT, ND, SD, WI*) WW* www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www www | 1 j 1 www www 4 3 3 3 2 3 www www www www www www www www 7 5 3 3 6 3 2 -0 7 5 5 2 www www www www www www www www www www www www 26 25 33 27 56 58 52 57 18 17 15 16 www www www www www www 3 4 6 -1 2 1 1 4 2 www www www www www www www www www 32 32 40 55 49 48 13 19 12 I I j 1 | | | 1