Title:

The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions, Volume 2, Issue 7

PREVIOUS | NEXT

The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions, Volume 2, Issue 7

DATE: June 1996

PART OF: AUTHORS:

ABSTRACT: The yield curve—specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill—is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.

Download (pdf) View Full Text

Share this page:


Diversity is critical to the Federal Reserve, and we are firmly committed to fostering a diverse and inclusive culture throughout the Federal Reserve System. Collections within FRASER contain historical language, content, and descriptions that reflect the time period within which they were created and the views of their creators. Certain collections contain objectionable content—for example, discriminatory or biased language used to refer to racial, ethnic, and cultural groups. These viewpoints and attitudes are inconsistent with our values, but the original descriptions are retained to ensure that they are not erased from the historical record.
Save & Share
less

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Research and Statistics Group. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions, Volume 2, Issue 7," Current Issues in Economics and Finance (June 1996). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/6879/item/627864, accessed on March 28, 2023.

More Information
less

DIGITAL COPY SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

SUBJECTS: THEMES:
Metadata (XML)
Metadata (JSON)