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Rethinking the Value of Initial Claims as a Forecasting Tool, Volume 4, Issue 11

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Rethinking the Value of Initial Claims as a Forecasting Tool, Volume 4, Issue 11

DATE: November 1998

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ABSTRACT: The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.

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Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Research and Statistics Group. "Rethinking the Value of Initial Claims as a Forecasting Tool, Volume 4, Issue 11," Current Issues in Economics and Finance (November 1998). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/6879/item/627896, accessed on March 28, 2023.

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