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THE BUSINESS REVIEW THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA RESERVE DISTRICT DECEMBER x, 19x3 By RICHARD L. AUSTIN, Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of PHILADELPHIA S U M M A R Y OF BUSINESS CO N D ITIO N S IN TH E UNITED STATES Production of basic commodities and retail trade increased during October and the volume of freight ship ments and wholesale trade continued Production large. The level of wholesale prices and the volume of employment showed but little change. The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production in basic industries advanced 3 per cent in October, after having declined for four months. The increase for the month, while due in part to the resump tion of anthracite coal mining, also reflected increases in textiles, lumber, and sugar, and most other industries included in the index. Employment at industrial estab lishments showed practically no change between Sep tember and October. Contract awards for new buildings increased through out the country considerably more than is usual at this IM DEX O F PRODUCTIOM IN BASIC IN D U S T R IE S PERCENT C O M B IN A T IO N O F CO RRECTED FOR 22 IN D IV ID U A L S E R IE S VARIATION seasonal 140 120 lOO 80 60 40 20 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 season, and were 15 per cent larger than in September. Residential projects formed a larger proportion of the total than in any earlier month of the year. Crop estimates by the Department of Agriculture on November 1 indicated a substantial reduction from the September forecast in the yield of cotton, but larger yields of corn, potatoes, and apples. Heavy movement of miscellaneous merchandise and live stock resulted in October in the largest railroad ship ments of any month on record. Wholesale Trade trade was 12. per cent larger than a year ago and sales in all leading lines except shoes showed increases. Department store sales were 13 per cent larger than last October and sales of mail order houses were the largest of any month since 1919. Wholesale prices declined less than one per cent in T he 2. B usiness BANK CREDIT B A N K CREDIT 1919 1920 1921 D ecem ber R eview 1922 1923 October, according to the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and stood approximately at the Prices level of a year ago. The principal changes for the month were declines in the prices of fuel, clothing, metals, and animal products, while whole sale prices of crops, particularly cotton, increased. During the first half of November the prices of wheat, hogs, pig iron, and hides receded, and prices of cotton and cotton goods, cement, and copper advanced. Since the middle of October there has been a slight decline in demand for credit for commercial and agri cultural purposes at member banks in Bank leading cities. Considerable decreases credit in borrowings for these purposes in the New York and Chicago districts were partially offset by increases in other districts. Loans secured by stocks and 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 bonds increased somewhat, while investments continued to decline and reached the low point for the year. The total member bank accommodation at Federal reserve banks declined between October 17 and Novem ber z i, and on the latter* date was the lowest since the middle of the year. The total volume of Federal reserve bank credit outstanding, however, remained relatively constant because of increased purchases of bills in the open market. The volume of Federal reserve note cir culation declined by about $50,000,000 during the period, while other forms of money in circulation increased. Money rates showed an easier tendency and during the early part of November the open market rate on com mercial paper in New York declined from 5-53T to 5 per cent. TABLE OF C O N TEN TS page Agriculture....................... Bankers’ acceptances. . . B r ic k s ............................ B uilding............................ Cigars and cigarettes . . Coal, anthracite.............. Coal, bitum inous............ C o k e .................................. Commercial pap er.......... C otton g ood s................... C otton, ra w ..................... C otton yarrs.................. District sum m ary.......... Drugs, wholesale............ D rygoods, wholesale. . .. Em ploym ent and wages Financial conditions Floor coverings............... 28 6 12 12 27 16 16 17 7 18 17 18 3 9 8 5 6 22 page Foreign exchange.............................................. 7 Furniture...................................................... 23 Groceries, wholesale......................................... Hardware, wholesale........................................ Hides and skins................................................. H osiery................................................................ Iron and steel.................................................... Leather............................................................... Lum ber............................................................... National sum m ary........................................... P aints............ '.................................................... P aper.............................. Paper b oxes........................................................ Plumbing supplies............................................ Real E s t a te ...................................................... Retail trade....................................................... Rubber, c r u d e ...................................... R ubber tires....................................................... 10 9 23 21 15 23 12 1 13 26 27 14 14 7 25 25 R ubber, mech anical g o o d s ........................... Savings deposits............................................... Securities........................................................... S hoes................................................................... Shoes, wholesale............................................... Silk good s........................................................... Silk, ra w ............................................................. Silk, th row n ...................................................... Sugar, raw......................................................... Sugar, refined................................................... Summary, district............................................ Summary, national.......................................... Synopsis of business conditions.................... Underwear......................................................... W holesale trade................................................ W oolen and worsted good s............................ W oolen and worsted yarns............................ W ool, ra w .................................................. .. . . 26 6 6 8 24 20 20 21 10 11 3 1 4 22 8 19 19 19 SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT The general tone of business has improved since last production during recent weeks, stocks are said to be month, despite the fact that conditions in some lines are heavy and accumulating. considered unsatisfactory. This is evidenced not so Quotations on most grades of hides have declined, much in orders for future delivery as in substantial sales although sales have been in fair volume, and certain for prompt shipment and in a feeling of greater confi types of shoes have been in moderately good demand. dence regarding business during the next few months. Leather, however, has continued dull. Manufacturers That distribution of goods is still heavy is shown by of cigars and cigarettes report business to be satisfactory. freight car loadings and by the well sustained volume of ‘ Paoer and paper box makers state that sales are some sales at both wholesale and retail. what smaller than they were a year ago, but that in some Among other encouraging signs are the reports con lines the volume is of goodly proportions. Retail sales cerning building operations. During October the value are running considerably ahead of those of a year ago in of permits issued both in the Third Federal Reserve Dis spite of unsatisfactory weather early in October. Whole trict and throughout the United States was not only sale dealers, too, are doing a fair business, and only in larger than at any time since last May, but considerably the case of shoes are sales reported to be smaller than in excess of the figures for October, 192.21. Such reports they were last year. are indicative of confidence in the future, if nothing Prices have fluctuated considerably in individual com more. Most building materials are in good demand, but modities, but on the whole have changed little since last as is to be expected, those materials which are used in month. The index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the latter part of operations such as paint, glass, and slightly lower at the end of October than in September. plumbing supplies are selling better than others. The Metal goods, including pig iron, declined, and several iron and steel industry, though still weak in spots, shows of the fuels, namely, crude oil, bituminous coal, and coke some improvement since last month. Inquiries are be were easier in price. O f farm products, some advanced coming more numerous, and sales have been made for while others declined. Quotations on textiles, too, the first quarter of 1914. In addition, pig iron production varied; cotton is higher, but silk has tended downward is better adjusted to the present demand than it was a in recent weeks. month ago. The employment situation shows little change. The In the textile industries conditions vary. Sales of raw wool have increased, woolen and worsted goods are number of wage earners at 1,054 manufacturing estab moving better, and certain types of yarns are selling more lishments in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, readily. But in cotton and silk sharp price fluctuations reporting to this bank declined .2. per cent between have tended to make buyers cautious, and consequently September and October. The total weekly wage pay there has been little or no improvement since last month. ments, on the other hand, were somewhat higher in Conditions in the textile markets have been reflected in October, but this was due to longer working hours rather the hosiery and underwear industries, which are un than to wage increases. Except in agricultural districts, settled. Most grades of floor coverings, however, are in where a shortage of labor has interfered somewhat with good request, and linoleums and felt-base goods are harvesting and fall plowing, the supply of workers selling exceptionally well. As might be expected, appears to be adequate. The credit situation continues easy, and money rates in some instances are slightly lower than they were a month ago. domestic sizes of anthracite are in good demand, but steam sizes continue to move slowly. The market for bituminous coal is still dull, and in spite of curtailed a T he 4 B usiness D ecem ber R eview SYN O P SIS OF BUSINESS C O N D ITIO N S Compiled as of November 23, 1923 Business Demand Third Federal Reserve District Prices Finished Stocks Labor situation Collections Supply Wages Brick Fair Firm Cigars Coal, anthracite Coal, bituminous Coke Good Good Poor Fair Cotton goods Fair Cotton yarns Drugs, wholesale Drygoods, wholesale Floor coverings Furniture Groceries, wholesale Hardware, wholesale Hosiery, fullfashioned Poor to fair Fair to good Good Good Fair Good Fair to good Firm Firm Lower Lower Unchanged to higher Higher Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Moderate to light Moderate Moderate Heavy Heavy Moderate to light Moderate Mod 'rate Heavy Moderate Moderate Heavy Moderate Fair Unchanged Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Hosiery, seamless Fair Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Poor to fair Iron and steel Fair Moderate to heavy Some scarcity Unchanged Fair to good Leather belting Fair Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Leather, heavy Poor Heavy Sufficient Unchanged Good Leather, upper Poor to fair Heavy Sufficient Unchanged Good Lumber Fair to good Unchanged to higher Unchanged to lower Unchanged to lower Lower Unchanged to lower Unchanged to lower Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Paint Fair to good Firm Moderate to light Sufficient Unchanged Fair Fair Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Paper boxes Fair Plumbing supplies Real estate Rubber, mechanical goods Rubber tires Fair Fair to good Unchanged to lower Unchanged to lower Weak Higher Fair Unchanged Fair Shoes, manufacture Poor to fair Unsteady Unchanged to lower Paper Shoes, retail Poor to fair Unchanged Shoes, wholesale Poor to fair Unchanged Silk goods Poor Lower Silk, thrown Poor Lower Sugar Fair Higher Underwear, heavy weight Underwear, light weight Woolen and worsted goods Woolen and worsted yarns Fair Some scarcity Unchanged Fair to good Sufficient Some scarcity Sufficient Sufficient Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Fair to good Fair to good Fair to good Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Sufficient Scarcity skilled Unchanged Unchanged Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair to good to good to good to good Moderate Some scarcity Unchanged Fair Moderate Sufficient Some scarcity Unchanged Unchanged Fair to good Fair to good Moderate to ght Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Sufficient Unchanged Fair Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair Moderate to heavy Moderate Moderate to heavy Light Moderate to light Good Poor to fair Some scarcity, Unchanged skilled Scarcity, skilled Unchanged Fair Sufficient Unchanged Good Light Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Light Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Fair Poor to fair Unchanged to higher Unchanged to higher Poor to fair Weak Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Poor to fair Poor to fair Unsettled firmer tendency Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair l T hird £9H. F ederal R eserve D istrict 1 E M P L O Y M E N T AN D W A G E S IN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE Number of wage earners reported Group and Industry Number of plants reporting T otal weekly payroll week ended Oct. 15. 1923 Sept. 15, 1923 1,054 415,210 416,207 344 24 13 34 203,320 7,265 30,715 13,090 205,444 — 1.0 7,463 — 2.7 30,622 + .3 13,410 — 2.4 37 76 15 11 12 50 10 47 9 6 13,228 16,132 4,081 13,415 5,162 51,339 2,816 30,329 11,997 3,751 13,410 17,052 4,267 13,183 4,976 51,082 2,820 31,439 12,0S0 3,640 Textile products: Carpets and rugs....................... Clothing..................................... Hats, felt and other................... Cotton goods............................. Silk goods................................... Woolens and worsteds............... Knit goods and hosiery............. Dyeing and finishing textiles... Miscellaneous textile products.. 252 15 37 7 23 70 33 42 17 8 76,432 4,455 6,817 5,559 7,758 20,387 14,635 9,270 5,535 2,016 Foods and tobacco: Bakeries...................................... Canneries.............. _.................... Confectionery and ice cream. . . Slaughtering and meat packing. Sugar refining............................ Cigars and tobacco................... 95 22 10 22 15 4 22 Building materials: Brick, tile and terra cotta products Cement........................................... Glass............................................... Pottery........................................... Chemicals and allied products: Chemicals and drugs............. Explosives.............................. Paints and varnishes............. Petroleum refining................. Coke........................................ All industries (48). Metal manufactures: Automobiles, bodies and parts... Car construction and repair.. . . . Engines, machines and machine tools............................................ Foundries and machine shops Iron and steel blast furnaces. Iron and steel forgings.......... Steel works and rolling mills. Structural iron works............ Miscellaneous iron and steel. Shipbuilding........................... Non-ferrous metals................ Miscellaneous industries: Lumber and planing mill products Furniture........................................ Musical instruments..................... Leather tanning......................... Leather products. . v. ................. Boots and shoes......................... Paper and pulp products......... Printing and publishing............ Rubber tires and goods............. Novelties and jewelry............... All other industries................... Oct. 15, 1923 Sept. 15, 1923 Per cent change Oct. 15, 1923 Sept. 15, 1923 Per cent change 511,095,203 510,908,760 + 1.7 $26.72 $26.21 + 1.9 5,832,242 195,718 970,220 313,317 5,809,325 194,47C 994,924 336,110 + .4 + .6 - 2.5 - 6.8 28.69 26.94 31.59 23.94 28.28 26.06 32.49 25.06 + 1.4 + 3.4 2.8 - 4.5 — 1.4 — 5.4 — 4.4 + 1.8 + 3.7 + .5 — .1 — 3.5 — .7 + 3.0 368,046 475,183 123,006 340,509 140,395 1,488,296 74,480 887,232 341,384 114,450 359,386 493,177 135,232 354.660 127,301 1,420,966 74,784 874,018 338,101 106,199 + 2.4 - 3.6 - 9.0 - 4.0 + 10.3 + 4.7 + .4 + 1.5 + 1.0 + 7.8 27.82 29.46 30.14 25.38 27.20 28.99 26.45 29.25 28.46 30.51 26.80 28.92 31.69 26.90 25.58 27.82 26.52 27.80 27.99 29.18 + 3.8 + + + 75,327 4,447 6,789 5,577 7,400 20 ,10 1 13,936 9,521 5,505 2,051 + 1.5 ■f" .2 + .4 — .3 + 4.8 + 1.4 + 5.0 — 2.6 + .5 — 1.7 1,684,323 130,571 133,885 125,083 180,648 402,499 330,145 185,792 149,230 46,470 1,584,817 118,669 135,343 117,968 162,808 385,236 297,670 171,698 149,399 46,026 + 6.3 + 10.0 - 1 .1 + 6.0 + 11.0 + 4.5 + 10.9 + 8.2 .1 + 1.0 ■ 22.04 29.31 19.64 22.50 23.29 19.74 22.56 20.04 26.96 23.05 21.04 26.69 19.94 21.15 22.00 19.17 21.36 18.03 27.14 22.44 + 4.8 + 9.8 — 1.5 + 6.4 + 5.9 + 3.0 + 5.6 + ii.i — .7 + 2.7 29,448 4,810 3,374 6,136 3,583 4,444 7,101 30,509 4,890 4.718 5,840 3,671 3,962 7,428 — 3.5 — 1.6 -2 8 .5 + 5.1 — 2.4 + 12.2 — 4.4 670,886 127,258 66,107 1 2 2 ,1 1 1 97,718 141,610 116,082 676,846 122,832 115,728 111,542 92,307 125,566 108,871 .9 + 3.6 -4 2 .9 + 9.5 + 5.9 + 12.8 + 6.6 22.78 26.46 19.59 19.90 27.27 31.87 16.35 22.19 25.12 24.53 19.10 25.14 31.69 14.66 + 2.7 + 5.3 - 20.1 + 4.2 + 8.5 + .6 + 11.5 81 22 15 28 16 23,411 3,371 7,497 8,226 4,317 22,801 3,269 * 7,497 7,730 4,305 _i_ 2.7 + 3.1 0 + 6.4 + .3 673,442 90,069 226,264 216,828 140,281 640,532 95,105 216,891 191,314 137,222 + + + + 5.1 5.3 4.3 13.3 28.77 26.72 30.18 26.36 32.50 28.09 29.09 28.93 24.75 31.88 + 2.4 8.1 + 4.3 + 6.5 + 1.9 73 39 10 13 7 4 30,671 8,464 2,819 1,422 16,701 1,265 30,252 8,356 2,952 1,371 16,304 1,269 + 1.4 + 1.3 — 4.5 + 3.7 + 2.4 — .3 903,935 227,930 77,060 36,170 516,235 46,540 865,400 216,220 74,199 33,107 500,721 41,153 + + + + + + 4.5 5.4 3.9 9.3 3.1 13.1 29.47 26.93 27.34 25.44 30.91 36.79 28.61 25.88 25.14 24.15 30.71 32.43 + + + + + + 209 51,928 2,313 3,472 9,592 9,214 740 6,077 5,560 3,780 5,243 2.948 2,989 51,874 2,470 3,399 9,109 9,156 710 6.013 5,862 3,659 5,289 3,012 3,195 + 1,330,372 51,303 84,592 280,013 250,298 14,780 116,288 139,142 120,399 133,689 72,897 66,971 1,331,837 54,171 S5,112 278,975 244.124 13,924 113,292 142,948 114,424 139,852 68,827 76,188 .1 5.3 .6 + .4 + 2.5 + 6.1 + 2.6 2.7 + 5.2 - 4.4 + 5.9 - 12 .1 25.62 22.18 24.36 29.19 27.16 19.97 19.14 25.03 31.85 25.50 24.73 22.41 25.67 21.93 25.04 30.63 26.66 19.61 18.84 24.39 31.27 26.44 22.85 23.85 .2 + 1.1 2.7 4.7 + 1.9 8 22 6 40 8 32 24 25 20 11 13 Per cent change Average weekly wages week ended .2 — + + + + + — + — .1 6.4 2 .1 5.3 .6 4.2 1 .1 5.2 3.3 .9 2.1 6.4 - 2.2 1.9 — + + 4.9 5.7 6.3 4.2 .3 5.2 1.7 4.6 3.0 4.1 8.8 5.3 .7 13.4 1.8 + 1.6 + 2.6 f 1.9 3.6 f 8.2 6.0 6 T he B usiness R eview E M P L O Y M E N T AN D W A G E S D ecem ber July 25 Population The total volume of employment at industrial estab lishments in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware showed only a slight change from September to October. The number of wage earners on the payrolls of the 1,054 manufacturing establishments in 48 industries reporting to this bank was 4155X10 in October, as compared with 4165X07 in September— a decline of .x per cent. Total weekly wages paid by these establishments increased 1.7 per cent, and average weekly per capita earnings increased from $x6.xi to $x6.yx, or 1.9 per cent. This advance in earnings was chiefly due to longer working hours, as very few changes were made in wage rates. Only 56 establishments reported wage increases, and these affected only x,49i workers, or less than 1 per cent of the total number employed at reporting plants. Four plants reported wage reductions, affecting 576 workers. Of the six groups of industries included in our survey, three— chemicals and allied products, building materials, and textile products— showed a noticeable expansion in employment. The foods and tobacco group reported the biggest decline— 3.5 per cent, owing principally to the marked seasonal curtailment in canning operations. The miscellaneous industries reported a small increase, and metal plants a decrease of 1 per cent. In textile mills producing silk, wool, and cotton goods there were considerable increases both in the number of employes and in average weekly earnings. Employment at blast furnaces, forging mills, and steel works increased noticeably, and in the last two, average earnings also advanced considerably. Indeed, it is noticeable that at a large majority of the industries included in the survey there were increases in average earnings, which were due to longer working hours. The table on page 5 shows the results of our latest survey of employment and wages in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. FINANCIAL C O N D ITIO N S A reduction of from 638 to 6x8 millions in total loans and discounts in the four weeks ending November 14 is reported by member banks in Philadelphia, Camden, Scranton, and Wilmington. The falling off was entirely in secured loans, however, as the total of commercial loans remained unchanged. Investments and deposits declined slightly. We give below a table showing the trend in the deposits of all member banks, classified by size of city or town. Bills discounted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, after increasing from 51.8 millions on October 3 to 61.8 millions on October 31, declined to 51.x millions on November x i. In the past four weeks the changes in earning assets were as follows: discounted bills declined from 58.4 to 51.x millions, United States securities owned fell off from 17.4 to ix.4 millions, and purchased bills increased from xo.3 to X7.X millions. In the items affecting reserves, there was Aug. 29 Sept. 26 Oct. 24 Figures in millions of dollars Demand deposits: Less than 5,000............ 5,000 to 14,999............. 15,000 to 99,999........... 100,000 and over......... 129.9 74.0 130.6 744.5 131.3 75.2 130 7 737.8 131.6 76.4 135.8 731.5 132.0 75.2 136.0 739.8 Time deposits: Less than 5,000............ 5,000 to 14,999............. 15,000 to 99,999........... 100,000 and over......... 198.9 100.2 175.1 138.2 210.4 100.9 177.8 138.1 202.7 101.4 181.6 136.6 205.1 100.7 182.3 139.7 an increase in note circulation from xio.6 to xix.7 mil lions, a decrease in deposits from 119.9 to 118.3 millions, and an advance in reserves from X56.3 to X59.9 millions. The reserve ratio rose from 77.5 to 78.5 per cent. In the security markets activity has increased during November, and prices have moved higher. The average price of xo industrial stocks on Securities November xi was $9x.i7, as against $87.83 a month earlier; and the average of railroad shares increased from $78.95 to $81.45. Bonds, too, followed the same trend; first-grade rails went up from $85.8x to $86.X7; second-grade rails from $81.85 to $8x.xi; industrials from $9x^7 to $93.49; and Liberty bonds from $97.4X to $97.54. The only decline was in the average of 10 public utility bonds, from $85.16 on October xo to $84.94 on November xi. Owing to large purchases by the Federal Reserve Bank, the average weekly sales of bankers’ acceptances by p i > dealers operating in this district were larger during the period from acceptances October * , to Novemba- .4 than they have been at any time since August, 19XX. But apart from sales to this bank, the demand was only fair. Purchases within the district by dealers were the largest reported since the inauguration of the present form of reports, in February of last year. Rates for 90-day bills remain unchanged at 4 ^ per cent. Data submitted by the dealers are summarized below: Sales in Third District W eekly average for period T o Federal Reserve Bank T o others Purchases in Third. District 1923: October 11 to November 14 83,071,000 $286,000 $1 ,210,000 324,000 September 12 to October 10 2,520,000 281,000 424,000 August 16 to September 11. 1,549,000 311,000 271,000 July 12 to August 15........... 1,442,000 186,000 1922: 919,000 October 16 to November 12 1,483,000 284,000 A small gain in savings deposits during October is re ported by 79 banks in this district. The combined figures in four cities out of twelve Savings reporting showed decreases. Data deposits by cities follow: 9M T h ird F ederal R eserve SAVINGS DEPOSITS Third Federal Reserve District D istrict FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES Noon cables Number of Per cent increase or decrease November 1 compared with banks Altoona............. Chester................ Harrisburg. . . . Johnstown*......... Lancaster................................. Philadelphia................................. Reading...................................... Scranton ............................... Trenton...................................... Wilkes-Barre.............................. Williamsport.......................... Wilmington........................ 1 ork.................................... Other cities............................. Totals................................. 5 5 4 5 3 9 3 6 6 4 5 5 14 79* *T w o reporting banks consolidated since last report. Month ago Year ago + 1.3 + .5 - .1 + 1.6 + .6 + .2 - .4 + .5 - 2.2 + .1 - .2 + .6 + 1.7 - .7 + -1 + 13.2 + 11.6 +23.1 + 13.0 +31.4 + 7.8 + 13.3 + 16.7 + 2.0 +23.9 + 7.7 + 9.9 + 13.9 + 16.6 + 9.9 London ............ Paris................ Antwerp........... Milan............... Vienna............. Amsterdam. . . . Copenhagen. . . Stockholm....... Madrid............ Berne............... Buenos Aires... Shanghai.......... Par value $4.8665 .1930 .1930 .1930 .2026 .4020 .2680 .2680 .1930 .1930 .9648 .7411 November 20 1923 $4.3353 .0538 .0461 .0434 .000014 .3766 .1719 .2642 .1308 .1739 .7042 .7145 October 20, 1923 N ovember 20, 1922 $4.5104 $4.4903 .0590 .0720 .0510 .0675 .0450 .0468 .000014 .000014 .3909 .3932 .1747 .2019 .2631 .2678 .1342 .1530 .1787 .1860 .7316 .8217 .6973 .7145 During late October, sales of commercial paper to Philadelphia banks increased considerablv, and purchases Commercial " 7 e ? ? de, a' least ° ne ,ary bank which had not been a buyer of com” F mercial paper for several years. Since October the volume of business with Philadelphia banks has been fairly well maintained, but country banks have purchased less than they did last month, owing probably to the lower rates now prevailing. Usually country banks buy more freely when rates are above 5 per cent than when they are lower. The supply of paper is slightly larger than it was last month, but some dealers still report a very short list of names. A considerable number of the new offerings are at 4 ^ per cent for the best names, but sales at less than 5 per cent are infrequent, and the majority of the trans actions are at the latter figure.- A fair amount of paper, however, is still sold at 534 per cent. Sales by six dealers in this district during October amounted to $8,563,000, the largest volume since June. This total compares with $6,805,000 in September and $7,033,000 in October, 1911. Purchases by Philadelphia banks totaled $4,441,500, and those by outside insti tutions, $4,110,500. One small sale was made at 4J4 per cent, and of the balance of the sales about 5 per cent were at 5 per cent, over 65 per cent at 534 Per cent, about 15 per cent at 5)4 per cent, and about 1 per cent at 524 pcr cent. More than the usual amount of activity has char acterized the movement of foreign exchanges during Foreign November. Political developments during the past three weeks are said to ® be largely responsible for the erratic tendencies of most of the European currencies, and the wide fluctuations in the values of several have caused new low records for the year to be established. Since the first of the month, sterling has declined from $4.4810 to a new low level of $4.z816 for noon cables on November 17. Two days later, upon receipt of the news that the threatened break between England and France had been averted, sterling made a sensational recovery to $4.36, but on November zo declined again to $4.3475. Both French and Belgian francs dropped during the month, the former touching the lowest level for this year at $.0535. Lire lost ground steadily but recovered somewhat after they had reached a low record of $.0419 on November 17. All so-called neutral currencies fell, and trading in these has been active. Guilders were low at $.3731, and Spanish pesetas declined consistently during the month to a low record of $.12.88. Swiss francs are more stable than any of the other European currencies, although they too have declined somewhat. On November 17, all of the Scandinavian exchanges were quoted at lower rates than RETAIL TRADE they have been at any time this year. Sales at retail during November are running ahead of Far Eastern currencies, not being directly affected by the factors that govern European exchanges, are in a those of last November, and the gain promises to be as more stable condition. Chinese tael (Shanghai) are large as it has been in recent months. As is usual at stronger than they have been for six weeks and are now this season, sales of toys and of apparel both for men and quoted at $.7101. Quotations for Japanese yen are fairly women are heavy. The demand for house furnishings of steady and have declined but little since their recovery all kinds, including rugs, continues to be strong, and after the earthquake. South American money has de with very few exceptions all merchandise is moving preciated. Argentine pesos touched a new low point steadily to the consumer. Price variations are slight, and retailers are buying for the year, and both Chilean pesos and Brazilian milreis very close to their immediate needs and are giving little are lower than they have been for several months. Canadian dollars failed to maintain the position they held attention to the higher quotations listed bv a number of at this time last month and are now quoted at $.9788. manufacturers of cotton goods for the spring and summer T he B usiness During the last two years, department store sales in the Third Federal Reserve District have been at a higher rate, relative to the 1919 average, than those in the United States as a whole. Source— Federal Reserve Board trade. Charge accounts are increasing considerably in number, but collections continue to be good. The accompanying chart illustrates the fact that retail sales in this district compare favorably w ith those of the country as a whole. The table on page 9 shows that during October sales in the Third Federal Reserve District were 15.z per cent greater than in October, 192.2.. Sales by the Phila delphia department stores increased 16.z per cent, and w ith the exception of stores in the smaller towns, which are grouped under the heading “ all other cities,” the gains throughout the district were satisfactory. Credit houses, though recording an increase as compared w ith last year, are not taking the lead as they did in 191a. Our figures for October, 1911, showed that while retail trade in the district was 4.7 per cent greater than in October, 19x1, credit sales were Z9.3 per cent greater. In this year, the gain in credit sales was only 6.7 per cent, as compared w ith 15.Z per cent in retail sales. Possibly fuller employment at higher wages has in creased the ability of purchasers to pay cash. W H O LE SA LE TRADE Business at wholesale during November, in all report ing lines except shoes, continues to be active, and w ill probably be larger than was that of November, 19ZZ. The average prices are much the same as they were a month ago, the small advances and declines about off setting each other. Sales in October were larger in all lines except drygoods than they were in September, and in drygoods the decline was small and was caused by the fact that a few firms reported large decreases. As compared w ith those of October, 19ZZ, sales in all lines but shoes showed a gain. The decrease in shoe sales is generally ascribed R eview D ecem ber to the warm and clear weather which prevailed during the month. Collections during October varied considerably, as appears in the table on page 10. In some lines they were better than in the previous month and than a year ago, but in others they were slower. Preliminary estimates of the sales of shoes by whole salers during November indicate that the total w ill be smaller than it was in November, 19ZZ. Shoes During recent weeks retailers have purchased only sparingly, and therefore any improve ment in distribution by retailers should be quickly re flected in larger wholesale sales. In the orders received for women’s shoes, blacks con tinue to predominate, and patent leather and suede remain the most popular leathers. Satins and brocades for evening wear are also in fair request. Men’s shoes, in the medium and higher grades, and children’s shoes, both boys’ and girls’ , are called for in fair volume. Holi day lines of romeos and felt slippers have sold well, and orders for rubbers have shown a seasonal increase. Wholesalers have purchased but little for spring, and the lower prices at which some lines can now be bought have failed to move them from their policy of caution. Stocks, although not burdensome, are fairly large for so late in the season, and renewed efforts are being made to reduce them considerably before the inventory period. During October, sales in this district, as reported to the Federal Reserve Bank, increased q.z per cent over those of September, but were 6.5 smaller than those in October, 19ZZ. Collections are still slow, as is shown by the ratio of accounts outstanding to sales, which on October 31 was Z45.0. The ratio was Z57.3 on September 30 and Z17.0 on October 31, 19ZZ. Sales of drygoods have been on about the same level in November as they were in October, seasonal conditions being taken into consideration. ExDrygoods cept for advances in the price of some articles made of cotton, caused by the higher price of the raw material, prices show little change. The increases that have been made are small and are difficult to obtain. Blankets, sweaters, flannels, underwear, and hosiery are in good request, and orders in nearly all cases are for delivery within thirty days. Stocks in the hands of wholesalers are declared to be heavy in the majority of the reports received, only a few firms listing them as light. Collections have changed but little, the great majority of reports stating that they are fair. Sales of drygoods at wholesale during October de creased 1.0 per cent as compared w ith those of September, but were larger by 5.8 per cent than those of October, 19ZZ. The number of firms that reported heavier sales than in September was, however, greater than those reporting a decrease; but the individual gains reported were in most cases small. The ratio of accounts out standing to sales was Z14.3 on October 31, as against T hird F ederal R eserve D istrict 9 RETAIL TRADE Third Federal Reserve District Comparison of net sales Comparison of stocks Hate of turnover* Percent of orders outstanding July 1 to July 1 to Oct, 31, 1923, to total purchases Oct. 31 Oct, 31, in 1922 1923 1922 October, 1923 with October. 1922 July 1 to Oct, 31, 1923 with Julv 1 to Oct. 31, 1922 Oct. 31, 1923 with Oct. 31, 1922 Oct. 31, 1923 with Sept. 30, 1923 + 15.2% + 17.1 “ + 11.7% + 1 2 .0 “ + 13.8% + 1 2 .0 “ + 2 .8 % + .6 “ 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.3 All reporting firms...................................... Firms in—Philadelphia............................... —Allentown, Bethlehem and Easto n ............................................ — Altoona.................................. — Chester....................................... -—Harrisburg............................... —Johnstown.......................... —Lancaster........................... — Reading............................ —Scranton ......................... — Trenton............................ — Wilkes-Barre.............................. —Williamsport............................ —Wilmington.............................. — Y o rk ............................ —All other cities........................... + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1 1 .0 “ 14.0“ 5 .8 “ 13.8“ 1 1 .0 “ 6 .5 “ 6.7“ 16.2“ 13.0“ 13.2“ 5.3“ 8 .4 “ 5 .5 “ 2 .5 “ + 7.5“ + 16.6“ + 2 1 .8 “ + 9.7“ + 11.9“ + 9 .3 “ + 11.4“ + 2 1 .5 “ + 7.2“ + 15.0“ + 1 .6 “ + 6 .1 “ + 5 .2 “ + 10 .1 “ + 11.3“ + 15.5“ +46.5 “ + 19.3“ + 19.7“ + 12.7“ + 15.5“ + 3 4 .4 “ + 16.2 “ +29.2 “ + 18.1 “ + 1 2 .0 “ + 3 .8 “ + 9 .5 “ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 6 .9 “ 8 .4 “ 5 .2 “ 10.3“ 6.4“ 3 .4 “ 7.1 “ 4 .2 “ 4 .9 “ 9.0“ 2 .4 “ 6 .3 “ 5.5“ 5 .7 “ 2.2 2.5 1.4 2 .1 2.7 2 .1 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.9 1.7 2.3 2 .1 2.3 24 1.5 2.3 2.9 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.2 All department stores................................. Department stores in Philadelphia........... Department stores outside Phila................ + 14.7“ + 16.2“ + 10.7“ + 10 .8 “ + 10 .8 “ + 1 1 .0 “ + 12.9“ + 1 1 .2 “ + 16.0“ + 7 .0 “ .5 “ + 2 .1 “ 3.0 3.4 2.3 3.0 3.3 2.4 12.3 “ 10 .2 “ 17.7“ All apparel stores........................................ Men’s apparel stores.................................... —in Philadelphia................................. —outside Philadelphia........................ Women’s apparel stores............................... — in Philadelphia................................. —outside Philadelphia........................ + 20.1 “ + 7.6“ + 5.4“ + 10.5“ +25.0 “ +28.1 “ + 12.7“ + 17.8“ + 8 .7 “ + 3 .7 “ + 14.5“ +20.9 “ +25.1 “ + 5 .8 “ + 17.4“ + 16.7“ +23.0 “ + 1 1 .8 “ + 10 .0 “ + 6 .4 “ +20.7 “ + 8. 8 “ + 6 .1 “ + 7.7“ + 4 .9 “ + 16.9“ + 19.3“ + 10.9“ 3.3 2.0 2.3 1.7 4.7 5.4 2.7 3.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 4.0 4.3 3.1 3.1 “ 7.2“ 7.2“ 3.5 “ 3 .4 “ 3 .9 “ Credit houses............................................... + 6 .7 “ + 14.8“ +24.1 “ + 5 .9 “ 2.5 2.7 5 .9 “ 10.7% 8 .7 “ 4 .5 “ 6.9 “ * Times per year based on cumulative period. in the previous month and 100.6 on October 31,1911. The net sales 0/31 hardware firms in the Third Federal Reserve District during October increased 18.1 per cent over those for the month before and Hardware were 16.0 per cent greater than the net sales in October of last year. Our October sales index, compiled from the reports of 10 representative firms, and adjusted for seasonal vari ations, was 131, an increase of 11 points over that for the month before, and of 16 points over the figure for October, 1911. Demand is from fair to good and is slightly better than it was at this time last month. The call for holiday goods and sporting accessories is one of the features of the market at present, but sales of builders’ and plumbers’ hardware are also in good volume. M ill supplies and mechanics’ tools are in fairly good request by factories and mines. Prices in nearly all cases are higher than they were at this time last vear. Some dealers state that prices are unchanged, but in only one instance is any reduction reported. Holiday and specialty goods in a few cases are quoted at somewhat higher prices than they i o o .o were during October, but quotations as a whole are about the same as they were then. Stocks are from moderate to heavy but are smaller than they were in October. Collections are in most cases fair. A few firms report that they are good, but three others describe them as poor. According to our reports, the ratio of accounts outstanding to sales was 151.4 in October, as compared with 169.1 in September and 155.1 in October, 192.1. Wholesalers report that the demand for drugs is fairly good and better than it was last month or in November, 1911. Proprietary medicines and pharD ru g S maceutical chemicals are selling actively, but toilet articles are not in as good request as they were in October. The botanical drug market is steady, and the demand is fair and well sustained. Fine chemicals and prepared drugs, too, are in request, and prices, though slightly lower than they were a month ago, are advancing. The table below gives the price indexes of 40 botanical drugs and 35 drugs and fine chemicals, as compiled by the “ Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter.” IO T he Price index of 40 botanical drugs October 2 2 ........................ October 29........................ November 0 ..................... November 1 2 ................... November 19................... B usiness Price index of 35 drugs and fine chemicals 1923 1922 1923 1922 123.8 123.8 123.9 123.6 123.5 116.0 117.5 117.3 117.2 117.0 204.9 201.7 201.0 203.8 203.1 167.1 167.1 167.1 168.3 171.8 Sales at wholesale in October were 11.4 per cent larger than in September and iz .z per cent greater than those of October, 19x1. Wholesalers’ stocks vary from moderate to heavy and are about the same as they were last month. Collections vary from fair to good. The ratio of ac counts outstanding to sales in October was 138.1, as compared w ith 151.1 in September and 144.1 in October, 1911. The demand for groceries is good, and wholesalers report that sales are greater than they were in October. Shipments of new pack canned goods Groceries and of dried fruits and vegetables are still heavy, and holiday specialties, such as nuts, raisins, mince meat, cranberries, etc., are selling in large volume. Buckwheat and pancake flours, syrups, molasses and other seasonable commodities, too, are in good demand. In general, prices are firm, and although some commodities, particularly evaporated milk, cheese, macaroni, and dried peaches and apricots, have declined, others have advanced, as rice, coffee, lard, syrup and butter. Jobbers’ stocks are heavy and are larger than they were in October, because of continued heavy deliveries of new crop dried vegetables, fruits, and canned goods and also large receipts of holiday and sea sonable commodities. Sales by wholesale grocers during October exceeded those of September by 10.4 per cent and were 17.0 per cent greater than those of October, igzz. The ratio of ac counts outstanding to sales decreased from 109.1 in Sep tember to 104.0 in October. R eview D ecem ber SUGAR Although sales of raw sugar have been of only moder ate size, the limited offerings of sugar for prompt ship ment have steadied the market, Raw Sugar and prices have not fluctuated greatly. Cuban raws, for prompt shipment, at the close of October were selling at from 5 5-16 to 5^ cents, c. & f, equivalent to 7.09 and 7 . Z 8 cents, duty paid. In the first week of this month the price fell to 5 1-8 cents, c. & f, equivalent to 6.91 cents, duty paid. But since then prices have risen, and the latest recorded sales for Cubas, prompt shipment, were made at 5% cents, c. & f, or 7.53 cents, duty paid. Because of the light offerings of Cuban sugars during the month, eastern refiners have been active buyers of Philippine and full-duty sugars at prices equivalent to those paid for Cuban. The last remaining lot of the 19Z Z - 19Z 3 Santo Domingo crop was purchased by New York refiners, and several sales of small lots of Peruvian have been reported. British refiners have shown more interest in American sugars than they have for several months, and have purchased some lots of South American sugars at prices equivalent to those paid by American refiners. Their Java supply was practically closed on November 1, and as Europe is unable to offer much beet sugar for sale in England, they must depend on South America and the island of Mauritius until the new crop of Cuban sugar arrives on the market. The harvest of the 19Z 3- 19Z 4 Cuban crop w ill start in December, when several centrales w ill begin grinding; but not many cargoes w ill arrive in American ports until the middle of January. The weather in Cuba has been cool and clear for several weeks and favorable for the ripening of the cane, but in many parts of the island the cane has not yet reached normal growth, and in a few sections there is need of rain. Receipts at Cuban shipping ports are decreasing weekly, and little sugar now remains at the mills. On November 10, there were 73,133 tons at the ports and W H OLESALE TRAD E Third Federal Reserve District Percentage of increase or decrease in Number of reporting firms Net sales Oct., 1923, compared with — Sept., 1023 Boots and shoes........................................ ............. Drugs.................................. Drygoods................................................... Groceries.................................................... Hardware................................................... 13 20 51 32 + + + + 4.2% 12.4“ 1 .0 “ 10.4“ 18.1 “ Oct., 1922 — 6.5% + 1 2 .2 “ + 5.8“ + 17.0“ + 16.0“ Katio oi accounts outstanding to sales Accounts outstanding Oct., 1923, compared with.— Sept., 1923 + + + + -8 % 1 .2 “ 6 .2 “ 3 .0 “ 5.9“ Oct., 1922 + + + + + 4.7% 9 .3 “ 13.1 “ 1 1 .2 “ 13.9“ Oct., 1923 Sept., 1923 Oct., 1922 245.0% 138.2 “ 214.3 “ 104.0“ 152.4“ 257.3% 152.1 “ 200.0 “ 109.1 “ 169.1 “ 217.0% 144.2“ 200.6 “ 109 3 “ 155.1 “ T hird £ 9i i F ederal only 18,781 tons on the plantations. The total remaining supply on the same ^late was 91,914 tons, as compared w ith 177,798 tons on November 10, 1911. About one half of the supply is said to be owned by American refiners, and the remainder is in a few strong hands. Stocks at Cuban ports are the lowest they have been in many years at this date. The following chart shows that the stocks on November 10, 1913, were only slightly larger than those on December 1, 1919 and 1911, when they were also very low. CUBAN SUGAR R eserve D istrict ii of the production of the chief growing areas for the two crop years: ESTIMATED SUGAR CROPS OF THE WORLD (in long tons) Cane sugar 1923-1924 1922-1923 United States and Insular Possessions... Cuba.......................................................... Other West Indies, Central and South America................................................. India, Java, Formosa and Japan............ Australasia, Africa and Europe............... 1.457.000 3.700.000 1,339,548 3,602,910 1,944,500 5.120.000 865,000 1,844,936 5,125,675 912,561 Total cane............................................. 13,086,500 12,825,630 Beet sugar United States............................................ Canada...................................................... Europe....................................................... 750,000 14,500 5,294,500 615,936 12,400 4,493,562 Total beet.............................................. 6,059,000 5,121,898 Total world production........................ 19,145,500. 17,947,528 Receipts of raw sugar at the ports of Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York, and Boston for the first three weeks of November were smaller than those for the same period last year. The following data, compiled by the “ American Sugar Bulletin,” show how receipts for the same periods of both years compare. RECEIPTS OF RAW SUGAR AT ATLANTIC PORTS Stocks at Cuban ports on November io were very low, and at the close of the crop year on November 30 will be reduced still further. The 1922-1923 figures are not complete, as they include only figures from December 1 to November 10 and the crop year closes on November 30 Source— American Sugar Bulletin The harvest of sugar beets in the United States is now virtually completed, and reports concerning the crop are more favorable than they were a month ago. On November i, Lionel L. Janes, beet sugar statistician,esti mated that the production in the United States would be 760,000 long tons instead of 755,000 as on October 1. The beets are heavier than they have been for several years, but the sugar content is rather low. In Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and Nebraska, the harvest was greatly delayed by rain, snow, and frosts, but practically the entire crop was pulled before serious injury occurred. F. O. Licht, the German sugar statistician, estimates that this year’s European beet sugar crop, including that of Russia, w ill be 5,105,000 metric tons. Last year the same authority estimated the European crop, exclusive of that of Russia, at 4,450,000 metric tons. W illett and Gray in their preliminary report for the year 1913-192.4 estimate the total production for the world at 19,145,500 tons, as compared w ith 17,947,52.8 tons in the year 192.2.-192.3. Should these figures prove to be correct the 192.3-192.4 crop w ill be the largest ever produced. The following are W illett and Gray estimates Tons (2240 lbs.) From From From From Novem ber 2 to • Novem ber 23, 1923 N ovember 3 to November 24, 1922 Cuba.................................... Porto R ico........................... Philippine Islands............... other countries.................... 25,151 154,161 7,036 5,596 25 Total receipts............................ 97,530 166,818 72,379 The demand for refined sugar, though not as heavy as it was during the first three weeks of October, is fair, •n j and buyers are pressing urgently for early delivery. The market displays SUgar considerably more strength than it did on the first of the month, and prices have stiffened. At that time refiners were quoting fine granulated at from 8.60 to 8.70 cents per pound, but on November 9 prices advanced to from 8.80 to 8.90 cents per pound at the eastern refineries and are now firm at from 9.00 to 9.15 cents. Confectioners are buying moderately, and some wholesale grocers whose stocks are low have recently come into the market; but practically all orders are for immediate delivery. However, the refiners have little sugar in stock and they show no desire to sell except at list price. Because of the favorable prices more beet sugar has appeared in the Atlantic states than has come in for several years. In the third week of this month a carload of beet sugar arrived in Philadelphia. T he 12. B usiness Numerous inquiries from foreign buyers are being received for refined sugar from the new crop, but as the prices they have offered to pay do not meet American prices, practically no sales have been made, and as refiners are reluctant to offer any sugar for the first quarter of next year, little stimulation has been given to the export market. Meltings for the first three weeks of the month at the refineries at Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston amounted to 148,000 tons, as compared with 170,000 tons for the same period in 1911. This repre sents a decrease of 13 per cent.’ BUILDING During October the value of building permits issued by fourteen cities in the Third Federal Reserve District reached a total of $15,443,618, an increase of $3,838,950 over that for the preceding month. The total number of permits granted was 3,199, which exceeds the figure for September by 551. The greatest increase occurred in Philadelphia where the number of permits rose from 1,097 in September to 1,419 in October, representing a gain of $3,863,150 in total value. Most of the other reporting cities showed sizable gains excepting Atlantic City, Camden, Harrisburg, and Wilmington. The value of building operations in these four cities declined some what sharply and offset to some extent the gain made in Philadelphia. The value of permits issued in October was $1,637,333 greater than the figure for October of last year. The following chart shows the trend in the value of building permits for the Third Federal Reserve District and for the city of Philadelphia from 1910 up to the present time. Following the seasonal slowing up in the building Although the value of building permits in Philadelphia and the district has declined considerably from the exceptionally high peak in the spring, it will compare favorably with that of previous years. Source— Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia R eview D ecem ber trade, the demand for bricks has decreased since last month. However, the present demand Bricks for all kinds of bricks seems to be greater than it was at this time last year, although reports received by us are conflicting on this point. Builders are hastening to complete work before the arrival of winter weather, and the orders taken are for the most part for early delivery, or at least for de livery within 60 days. As would be expected, the ma jority of orders are for smaller quantities than they were at this time last month. The call for fire bricks is only fair, but although the market for these has been weak for some time, some optimism is apparent regard ing later fall business. Prices of building bricks in most cases are strong and are the same as those prevailing at this time last month. Some manufacturers, however, report that prices are lower as a result of the slackened demand. Quotations on fire bricks are weak and in one case were reduced 7 per cent from those of October 15. On November 13, building bricks, delivered, in Philadelphia, were quoted at $ ii per thousand. Finished stocks in general are from moderate to light and are beginning to increase, as they usually do at this time, when preparations are begun for winter piling. Supplies of raw materials also range from moderate to light and at present are practically stationary. The average rate of operation for 19 manufacturers of fire, building, and paving bricks is about 83 per cent of capacity, which is less than the average rate for last month. A t the present rate of production, unfilled orders w ill insure operation for from 10 days to 6 months, the average being about 60 days. In some instances a scarcity of both skilled and unskilled workers is reported, but in most cases the supply is sufficient, and in a few is plenti ful. Collections are from fair to good but are slower than they were both at this time last month and during November, 1911. The demand for lumber was from fair to good during the early part of November, but a seasonal slowing up has been noticed since the middle of the Lumber month. There is less call for most grades than there was at this time last month, but according to some manufacturers, sales have been better in November than they were during the same month last year. Buyers as a rule are purchasing only for immediate needs. Although several large contracts have been awarded to firms on the West Coast by the Japanese Government, these have affected the local market but little. Hardwoods are in better request than pine, and spruce, as usual, is selling well. Quotations for hardwoods are fairly steady, but some of the soft woods, particularly pine, are available in many cases at the purchaser’s price. Quotations have not greatly changed from those prevailing at this time last month, but the tendency is toward lower prices, and T hird 1Q2-3 F ederal R eserve D istrict i^ BU ILDIN G P E R M IT S Third Federal Reserve District October, 1922 October, 1923 January to October, inclusive 1923 Permits Operations Estimated cost Permits Operations Permits 91 Allentown.......... 187 Altoona............. 287 Atlantic City*.. . 154 Camden............. 93 Harrisburg........ 96 Lancaster.......... Philadelphia. . . . 1,429 Reading............. • 265 Scranton*.......... 113 Trenton............. 187 105 Wilkes-Barre*... 97 Williamsport*... 100 Wilmington....... 95 York................... 126 194 287 188 135 96 1,972 269 113 245 105 102 100 95 $501,030 216,373 590,994 239,665 486,470 573,555 10,949,310 241,050 212,598 512,535 372,029 115,563 176,949 255,517 71 176 330 118 71 59 1.420 292 115 136 86 73 111 111 104 179 330 166 96 59 2,037 305 115 162 86 78 111 111 Total for October 3,299 4,027 $15,443,628 3,169 3,939 1922 Estimated cost $269,373 919 1,652 174,965 750,746 2,299 437,828 1,088 818 160,075 294,495 815 9,876,025 12,646 354,925 2,757 1,293 293,643 582,615 1,578 287,599 1.015 927 108,505 127,091 1,008 1,312 88,410 Estimated cost Permits Estimated cost $4,515,120 822 2,765,687 1,600 8,015,186 3,259 6,516,849 1,037 7,155,712 827 3,377,985 738 112,806,900 12,632 4,045,755 2,848 2,925,009 1,257 5,994,646 1,291 2,757,826 1 ,1 1 1 1,099,864 964 3,134,181 893 1,970,726 1,238 $3,075,163 2,307,744 7,397,152 3,810,372 3,531,770 2,511,515 95,496,450 4,335.376 4,298,059 3,918.211 3,444,550 1,476,609 2,531,741 1,106,829 $13,806,295 30,127 $167,081,446 30,517 $139,241,541 ♦ D o not report operations N EW BU ILD IN G S AND A LTER ATIO N S 1922 1923 New buildings Permits Allentown........ Altoona............ Camden........... Harrisburg. . . . Lancaster........ Philadelphia. . . Reading........... Trenton........... Williamsport... Wilmington.... York................ 69 71 81 85 oo 816 90 158 48 83 51 Oper. 104 78 115 127 55 1,333 94 215 48 83 51 Est. cost $491,630 177,143 197,005 478,695 553,290 10,346,455 147,300 490,165 107,856 157,103 189,430 Alterations Permits Oper. 22 116 73 8 41 613 175 29 49 17 44 22 116 73 8 41 639 175 30 54 17 44 some shading has been made in order to secure large orders. Orders taken this month have been somewhat smaller than those in October, and of the orders now on the books, the majority are for delivery within 60 days. Manufacturers reporting in this district are operating at approximately the same rate as they were at this time last month, and present orders in most cases will insure operations for from 30 days to 4 months. Stocks of finished goods at the mills are moderate and in some cases light, as are also supplies of raw materials. Dealers state that stocks of finished lumber in the yards are moderate and increasing. The supply of both skilled and unskilled workers, although inadequate in a few instances, is in general sufficient. New buildings Est. cost $9,400 39,230 42,650 7,775 20,265 602,855 93,750 22,370 7,707 19,846 66,087 Alterations Permits Oper. Est. cost ' Permits Oper. Est. cost 50 51 65 60 39 792 82 116 47 87 45 82 54 112 80 39 1,397 95 141 52 87 45 $229,473 127,570 389,609 123,700 251,550 9,389,235 285,000 575,073 101,145 115,291 63,850 21 125 53 11 20 628 210 20 26 24 66 22 125 54 16 20 640 210 21 26 24 66 $39,900 47,395 48,219 36,375 42,945 486^790 69,925 7,542 7,360 11,800 24,560 Collections are from fair to good and are the same as they were in October and during the corresponding period of 1911. The call for paints and varnishes has been from fair to good during the past month and in most cases is re garded as entirely seasonable. As was Paints expected, the demand for nearly all classes of paint was better than during the month before. New building requirements and the desire of contractors to complete operations are at present the stimulating factors in the market, rather than plans for redecorating and repairing, which in many cases have been postponed. Prices of both mixed paint and raw materials are in i4 T he B usiness general strong, although keen competition among pro ducers of dry colors has resulted in some shading of quotations. Excess production has caused a decline in the price of black carbon, but quotations for lead pig ments are mostly the same as those listed in October. Linseed oil is quoted at 88 cents per gallon, tank car price, for December delivery, which is one cent below the quotation prevailing at this time last month. Stocks of both finished goods and raw materials are from moderate to light, and in most cases are stationary, although in a few instances supplies of finished goods are beginning to increase, as is usual at this time of the year. Reports vary as to the size of unfilled orders as com pared with those for last month, but the majority state that they are unchanged. The greater number are for delivery within 60 days, but many are for up to and be yond 90 days. Manufacturers reporting to us are oper ating at an average of 73 per cent of capacity, and un filled orders now on the books w ill insure the maintainance of this rate of production until January 1. Both skilled and unskilled labor is sufficient and in a few cases even plentiful. Collections are fair, and though they have changed but little since last month, are more prompt than they were during the corresponding period of 19x1. The demand for plumbing supplies has been fairly good during the past month, but because of seasonal conditions it has not been as heavy Plumbing as k was during Qctober In_ S u p p lie s stallations of heating equipment have been carried on at an active rate incidental to the closing of the season for this class of work, but the call for general plumbing supplies has not been as good as it was at this time last year. Building additions, alter ations, and delayed w ork are responsible for a fair vol ume of small orders, which, though they do not greatly augment total sales, are profitable to the dealers. The total of unfilled orders is smaller than it was in October, and of those now on the books, the majority are for delivery within 60 days, although some are for up to and beyond 90 days. Prices are weak in most cases, and some reductions are noted on soil pipe and fittings; but on a few other articles quotations have slightly advanced. Several manu facturers report that prevailing prices are being met with resistance. Stocks of both finished goods and raw materials are from moderate to light and in most cases are decreasing. In a few instances, however, supplies of finished goods are heavier than they were three months ago. Manufacturers in this district are operating at from 50 to 100 per cent of capacity, the average rate being near 80 per cent, which is much the same as that for last month. A t the present rate of production, un filled orders w ill insure operations for from 10 days to 5 months, the average being about 4 weeks. The supply of both skilled and unskilled labor is in general sufficient, R eview D ecem ber there being but few instances in which any scarcity of skilled workers is reported. Collections are fair and in some cases even good. They are about the same as they were at this time last month, but as compared w ith those of the corresponding period of 192.x, they are slightly poorer. REAL ESTATE Real estate dealers and operators state that the demand for houses and apartments is very good at present and that of the two, houses are in greater request. There is a shortage of private dwellings renting at from S3 5 to $75 per month, and the supply of apartments renting at these prices is not w holly adequate. Tfie large number of apartment houses constructed during the late summer and fall, however, has greatly increased the number available at present, but rents for these are higher than those for houses, and prospective tenants naturally turn first to the dwelling market. Rents in general are about the same as they were at this time last year, but in some cases they have increased. Houses selling at from $6,coo to $9,000 are in greatest request, and of these there is likewise a shortage. Prices asked for both old and new houses are somewhat higher than those prevailing at this time last year. The price of building sites has not materially advanced during the last quarter, but desir able locations are becoming more difficult to obtain, especially within city limits. One real estate dealer ob serves that desirable industrial sites are scarce in the vicinity of Philadelphia, and that in several instances factories have been erected on ground considerablv re moved from railroad facilities. Both operators and individual buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to finance their building operations and purchases. Many building associations have made loans up to their legal capacity, and the mortgage market is becoming stagnant. Some real estate dealers are making loans up to 60 per cent of the appraised value of the property, and first mortgages are taken on a basis of not more than 50 per cent of the selling price. The prevailing interest charged by dealers and brokers con tinues to be 6 per cent, and commission charges in this district average about x per cent. It is reported that as a result of the difficulty in securing funds, bonuses and high commissions are being paid in some cases in order to obtain financing accommodations. Trust companies reporting in this district say that applications for assis tance in financing are much the same as they were during the third quarter, and are about equally divided between house and building construction. These companies are taking mortgages on property both finished and under construction for from 40 to 60 per cent of their own ap praisement. In some cases, valuations are based on actual building costs; in others, they are founded on present market prices. Trust companies are also charging 6 per cent interest on mortgage loans, but are asking no com- T hird I 9H F ederal mission fees. Usually a very nominal fee is required to defray the expenses of appraising and of recording titles. As a rule, operative builders build only for sale, ex cepting of course apartment houses, but several cases have been reported in which dwellings have been rented temporarily until such time as an improvement in the financing situation w ill enable the prospective pur chasers to secure mortgage accommodations. The supply of building materials is in most cases sufficient, and no difficulty is experienced in securing them. The supply of labor, in general, is adequate. R eserve D istrict 15 3,12.5,512. gross tons in the month before. But the fact that October was a month of 31 days reduced the average daily output to 101,586 gross tons, which is the lowest for the year. Production is being curtailed, as w ill be seen in the accompanying chart, which depicts produc tion and stocks on hand by months, together w ith the trend of prices since November, 1911. PIG IRON IR O N A N D STEEL The past month has been marked by an encouraging increase in the number of inquiries for tonnages of both iron and steel. A distinct trend of forward buying is noticeable and though the general purchasing policy is still one of caution, many manufacturers are more optimistic than they have been for some time past. The demand for pig iron is better than it was last month, but continued production and increasing stocks have combined to make the market distinctly favorable to the buyer. Orders have been slow in forthcoming, on account of the weakness of prices. The feeling is preva lent among many producers in the steel industry that heavy future buying is imminent, but the present demand for most classes of steel is no better than it was at this time last month, and in some cases not as good. Manu facturers of iron and steel castings report that the call for their products has decreased since last month, and this is also true of plates and structural shapes. Machinery and tools are in fair request, and orders are being taken at about the same rate as they were in October. Good sales of light and heavy hardware have been made, most of the deliveries being to jobbers and building con tractors. Locomotive manufacturers are taking sizable quantities of iron bars, and crude steel is also in fair de mand. Automobile makers using sheet steel are placing occasional orders, but the call for this product is only moderate. The demand for miscellaneous materials is fair, but is no better than it was in October. Rails and railway materials were in good request on the first of the month, and contracts for substantial tonnages have been closed for 1914 delivery. For the seventh consecutive month, unfilled orders of the United States Steel Cor poration have declined. The total for October was 4,672.,8x5 tons, as compared w ith 5,035,750 tons for September, a reduction of 361,92.5 tons. Production of steel ingots during October was main tained at very near the September level. The total out put of the entire country was estimated at 3,547,956 gross tons, which, although greater than the figure for Sep tember, represents about the same daily average, when the difference in the number of working days is taken into consideration. During October, 3,149,158 gross tons of pig iron were produced by all furnaces, as against The production of pig iron has shown a downward trend since last M ay, but stocks have been increasing since March. Figures for production represent the total for the United States, but those for stocks are obtained from only a fraction of the producing firms. Hence production and stocks for any one month are not comparable. Sources— Iron Age and Department o f Commerce The total number of furnaces in blast on November 1, was 2.45, or ten less than were operating on the first of October. In this district one furnace was blown out and one blown in; consequently the total number of 34 furnaces now in operation is the same as it was last month. Corporation producers are operating at an average of about 87 per cent of capacity and independent com panies at nearly 70 per cent. Manufacturers of iron and steel in this district state that they are working at from 75 to 80 per cent of maximum output. Practically all of the reporting firms say that they are having no difficulty in making prompt deliveries. Stocks of finished goods in most cases show little change from those held last month. Stocks of pig iron, however, are increasing. Skilled workers are more scarce than are unskilled, but the supply of both, in most cases, is sufficient. On Octo ber 15 the total number of employes in 50 rolling mills and steel plants was .5 per cent greater than it was on the corresponding date in September, but in 76 foundries and machine shops the total figure declined 5.4 per cent. In the former case, the average wage increased 4.2. per cent; and in spite of the decrease in the number of workers in foundries and machine shops, the average wage was 1.9 per cent greater than on September 15. There has been a slight reduction in prices of iron and 16 T he B usiness steel castings, iron bars, and plates and structural shapes, but although quotations are weak on some other classes of steel, prices are mostly unchanged from those quoted at this time last month. A few advances in the price of light rails and heavy steel scrap have offset reductions in other lines, according to the Iron Age, whose composite price for all steel products on November 13 stood at z.775 cents per pound. This figure has remained con stant for the past 18 weeks. The average price of pig iron on the same date, as computed by the above periodi cal, was $10.77 per ton, as compared with $11.96 per ton on October 13. On November 10, Philadelphia iX pig iron was quoted at $11.64 Per ton>representing a reduc tion of $1.11 from the price on October 13. During the same period the price of number 1 Valley Furnace pig iron declined $1.00 and was last quoted at $11.00 per ton. Collections are from fair to good, but are not quite as satisfactory as they were during October. COAL The demand for domestic sizes of anthracite has been good during the past month, and winter supplies have been going into the individual bins Anthracite at the same heavy rate as they did in October. Considerable difficulty is experienced, however, in disposing of steam sizes, and an effort is being made to stimulate consumption of these sizes by inducing domestic consumers to mix certain grades w ith stove and egg coal. The poor demand for steam coal is partly due to the use of bituminous as a substitute, and increasing tonnages of buckwheat and other steam grades are being stored by many companies. Quotations for the domestic grades are unchanged, but prices of steam sizes are lower than they were at this time last month. Company stove coal is still quoted at from $8.90 to $9.15 per ton, f. o. b. mines, but inde pendent prices on several grades of steam coal are from 15 to 75 cents less per ton, f. o. b. mines, than they were on October 11. The observance of three holidays since October 17 was responsible for a decline in the production totals, which in October had averaged over two million tons weekly. During the week ending November 3, 1,373,000 tons were produced which, when actual working time is taken into account, indicates that the average rate of output was very near that of the week before. The following table shows the total output for the four weeks ending November 17 and for the corresponding four weeks of 1911. Week ending 1923 1922 October 20................................. October 27................................. November 3 ............................... November 10............................. 2.045.000 tons 2.069.000 “ 1.373.000 “ 1.967.000 “ 2.039.000 tons 1.836.000 “ 1.872.000 “ 1.897.000 “ R eview D ecem ber The mines are operated at a close to capacity schedule, but as has been the case since the end of the strike, reports state that there is some shortage of miners and helpers. The status of the bituminous market is not as favorable as it was at this time last month, and the lack of demand for all grades which has existed for Bituminous the past few months has caused some pessimism among operators and dealers in this district. Efforts to persuade consumers to pur chase more bituminous coal have met w ith little success. The Geological Survey estimates that during the past twelve months, users have purchased more than they have consumed. If this is true, there is no immediate likelihood of an increase in demand. Railroads have already stored more than their average tonnages for this time of year, consequently few of them are in the market at present. The only bright spot in the situation is the fair demand in the South and Middle West, and one colliery in this district reports that wherever equip ment is available, coal is being screened into prepared sizes and sent to those markets for household con sumption. Several reductions in prices have occurred during the month, and present quotations are far from stable. Some operators say that prices bid are below the cost of pro duction, and that most of the coal now being delivered is going forward under contract prices, which are from $1.00 to $1.50 higher than spot quotations. On Novem ber 19 the spot price of Pool 10 coal was from $1.70 to $1.00, f.o.b. mines, as against $1.85 to $1.15 on October 11. Production declined somewhat during the first two weeks in November, but this was largely on account of the cessation of work on three holidays. For the week ending November 3, the output was 10,547,000 tons, as compared w ith 10,919,000 tons during the week ending October 17. Notwithstanding the poor demand at the present time, the rate of production is high, and the out put for the present year promises greatly to exceed the average output for the six preceding years. Production for the last four weeks and for the corresponding four weeks of 1911 is estimated by the Geological Survey as follows: Week ending 1923 October 20................................. 10.694.000 tons 10.919.000 “ November 3 ............................... 10.547.000 “ November 10............................. 10.737.000 “ 1922 10.378.000 tons 10.683.000 “ 10 .666.000 “ 10,147,000 “ Stocks continue to increase, and although precise figures are not available, the coal in storage throughout the country is doubtless considerably in excess of the 56,000,000 tons estimated as the amount held at this time last month. The chart on page 17 depicts the size of stocks by months as compared with production. It w ill T hird 192-1 BITUMINOUS F ederal R eserve D istrict i7 November 10 established a new low record for the present year. In the preceding table, production figures are given for each of the past six weeks and for the corresponding weeks in 192.2.. COAL C O TTO N N b J F M A M J J A S O N b J F M A M J J A S O H b 1921 1 922 1923 Although production of bituminous has been at a fairly steady rate since March, estimated commercial stocks have been steadily increasing. Present supplies over the entire country are greater than they have been at any time since April, 1922. Sources— Department o f Commerce and Department of Interior be seen that the supply now on hand is in excess of the monthly rate of output. Companies reporting to us are operating at from 33 ^ to 100 per cent of capacity, but the average rate is only about 50 per cent, and some mines are operating but two or three days a week. Under these conditions, labor in practically all cases is sufficient, and in only one instance is any scarcity reported. Collections are from fair to good and are unchanged from those of last month. The situation in the pig iron industry is reflected in the poor demand for coke in this market, and as blast furnaces are by far the largest consumers, no improveCoke ment is expected until conditions change de cidedly for the better. Most furnaces have sufficient stocks on hand to last through the remainder of the year, but not many sales have been made thus far for more than first quarter requirements. For the fifth consecutive week, prices of both foundry and furnace grades have remained unchanged. On November 2.0 the spot price of Connellsville foundry coke was $4.75 per net ton, and furnace coke was quoted on the same date at $3.75 per net ton. The estimated production of beehive coke during the four weeks ending October X7 totaled 1,158,000 net tons, or 160,000 less than the output during the corresponding four weeks in September. The production of only 2.56,000 net tons of beehive coke during the week ending Week ending 1923 1922 October 6 .................................. October 1 3 ............................... October 2 0 ................................ October 2 7 ................................ November 3 ............................. November 1 0 .......................... 312.000 net tons 284.000 “ “ 286.000 “ “ 276.000 “ “ 269.000 “ “ 256.000 “ “ 173.000 net tons 185.000 “ “ 210.000 “ “ 237.000 “ “ 213.000 " “ 246.000 “ “ The most striking feature of the raw cotton market during the past month has been the sharp increase in prices. Spot cotton advanced from Raw Cotton 31.00 cents per pound on October 14 to 35.90 cents per pound on N o vember x i, when quotations were 60 per cent higher than on July 31, at which time they touched the lowest point of the season. Factors affecting the supply of cotton were largely responsible for the rise, although demand factors were also important. On November x the Department of Agriculture re duced its crop estimate from 11,015,000 bales to io ,x48,000 bales. Generally unfavorable weather, excessive insect damage, and the heaviest abandonment of acreage on record, were the principal causes of this decrease. With a carry-over from last season of only x,087,919 bales and w ith domestic consumption and exports totaling about eleven and a half million bales during the season of 19XX-X3 and about twelve million bales during 19X1-XX, this reduction of 767,000 bales in the size of the present crop is especially significant. Moreover, during the past month several private estimates have placed the crop at less than ten million bales, and its quality is re garded by many as being poor. Reports of ginnings by the Department of Commerce are also of a bullish nature. That total ginnings have continued to run well below those of last year is indicated by the accompanying chart, which shows ginnings to November 14. Although in Texas X5 per cent more cotton was ginned prior to November 14, 19x3, than up Cotton ginnings prior to November 14, 1923, were 5.65 per cent smaller than last year, but were somewhat larger than the 5 year average. Texas ginnings are larger than any in the past five years. Source— Department of Commerce T he i8 B usiness to the same date last year, returns from “ all other states’ ’ were z i per cent smaller. Using the latest government estimate of the total crop as a basis for 1913 , and the final returns for previous years, we find that 8Z .5 per cent of the cotton was ginned prior to November 14, 19Z 3, as compared w ith 91 . z per cent in 19Z Z , 91 . z per cent in 19Z 1 , and 67. z per cent in 19Z 0. It must be remembered, however, that the present crop in many states is believed to be late. As a result of the above factors, both speculative and trade buying has been active, in spite of reports of cur tailment of operations, of resistance to prices, and of poor business in cotton goods. Domestic consumption of cotton during October, according to government figures, was 541, 8Z 5 bales, as compared with 483, 85Z bales during September, 19Z 3 , and 533,744 bales during October, 19Z Z . In the three months ending October 31 , this vear, 1,517^81 bales were consumed by domestic mills, in contrast with 1 , 554,137 bales in 19Z Z , while during the same period exports totaled 1 , 715 , 57Z bales in 19Z 3 and only 1,439,86z bales last year. As reported by the New York Cotton Exchange, total exports from August 1 to November Z 3 were 8.9 per cent greater in 19Z 3 than in 19Z Z . However, total w orld’s takings of American cotton to November Z 3, as indicated by the following figures, were considerably smaller this year than last. SUPPLY AND TAKINGS OF AMERICAN COTTON* In bales Season of 1923-1924 Season of 1922-1923 Season of 1921-1922 Visible supply, American, at end of previous season (July 31) 869,968 1,968,159 4,112,651 Crop in sight, American, on November 23......................... 6,173,988 6,678,651 5,376,261 T otal....................................... 7.043,956 8,646,810 9,488,912 Visible supply, American, on November 23......................... 3,166,401 3,973,266 4,657,787 World’s takings of American to November 23......................... 3,877,555 4,673,544 4,831,125 ♦Figures com piled b y New York C otton Exchange. In spite of the sharp advance in quotations on raw cotton during the past month, the demand for cotton yarns has shown but little improveCotton yarns ment and is still rather quiet. Dealers state that although inquiries were more numerous, the volume of orders failed to show any substantial change. Because of unsatisfactory business in cotton goods and the fear that present quotations on raw cotton cannot be maintained, manufacturers in general hesitate to buy yarns in greater quantities than are needed for current use. The desire to reduce in ventories at the end of the year has aggravated the situ ation. As a result, dealers report a decided lack of orders for future shipment, and the bulk of the business on the books is for spot delivery. The dulness in cotton yarns seems to be general in all R eview D ecem ber branches of the trade. However, the demand for carded yarns is relatively stronger than that for combed. Mer cerized yarns are in poor request. It is reported by some dealers that sales of weaving yarn to manufacturers of towels have been made in fair quantities. In consequence of higher prices on raw cotton, quo tations on cotton yarns have advanced notwithstanding the poor demand, and are from 11 to 14 per cent higher on carded and from 4 to 6 per cent higher on combed yarns than they were during the latter part of October. But price resistance on the part of buyers is marked, and some dealers have continued to grant concessions. Owing to poor business and the fact that dealers have moderate stocks of yarn bought at lower prices, dealers’ quotations have tended to lag behind spinners’, and increases by both have not as a rule kept pace with advancing prices of raw cotton. Collections are but fair, dealers stating that some manufacturers are slow in paying their accounts. Lack of confidence on the part of buyers in the main tenance of prices on finished products is one of the most disturbing factors in the cotton Cotton goods goods industry. Increases in quo tations on raw cotton and cotton yarns were followed by advances in cotton fabrics. But since distributors doubt their ability to merchandise goods at the higher prices, these advances have en countered decided resistance. As a result quotations on cotton goods have not kept pace with raw cotton prices. This is indicated by the fact that although cloth prices have again reached the level of last March, quotations on raw cotton are about 15 per cent higher. Since Octo ber Z4 prices of raw cotton have increased 15.8 per cent, but gray goods advanced only from 5 to 8 per cent, and many finished goods have been sold at unchanged prices. Moreover, a large manufacturer of ginghams reduced quotations by two cents per yard. These factors have resulted in a situation whereby both the buyer and the seller have become very cautious with regard to future business. Buyers have for the most part kept their stocks as light as possible and bought mainly for current needs, and many manufacturers have refused to consider orders for future shipment except at higher prices. Consequently, most of the business on the books is for delivery within the next 60 days. Although some producers of finished goods state that at present prices, which many consider unsatisfactory, cotton fabrics are selling freely, the majority find that demand ranges only from poor to fair. The trend of de mand, moreover, is indefinite, since, as compared with last month, almost as many firms report a decrease as an increase. Seasonable goods such as flannels, flannelettes, and towels for the holiday season, have sold fairly well, orders being mainly for prompt shipment. Some manu facturers of towels, however, state that business is poor and that competition from southern mills is severe. The latter is also true of many other cotton goods, since, be- T9M T hird F ederal R eserve D istrict 19 cause of lower operating costs, southern mills can under sell eastern producers. Manufacturers of drapery and upholstery fabrics report that demand is fairly good, having increased during the month. But competition is keen, and some mills have cut prices. Stocks of finished goods are in general moderately light, though in a few cases they are heavy. Stocks of yarn are moderate and are either stationary or decreasing. Reports on production vary, some plants having in creased operations during the month, and others having reduced them. However, the majority of manufacturers have continued to operate from one half to three fourths of their equipment, and some are running at or near capacity. The supply of labor is in general sufficient. Collections show little change since last month and range from fair to good. States have been reduced, as is shown by the table below. Total stocks on September 30, 1913, were 54,547,536 pounds smaller than they were last year, having de clined 11.3 per cent since June 30, 1913. The latter was mainly due to the decrease in manufacturers’ stocks, which declined 16.5 percent, as compared with a shrink age of only 6.5 per cent in the stocks held by dealers. During the third quarter of this year supplies of wool held by dealers in Philadelphia were reduced by Z5.4 per cent, and on September 30 were 5,051,6x3 pounds smaller than they were last year. Woolen and worsted yarns have continued in dull request, and business is “ spotty.” Because of the poor sales of men’s wear fabrics for Woolen and spring, and because the heavy worsted yarns weight season is still some weeks distant, demand for weaving yarns for men’s fabrics WOOL is especially quiet. Moreover, sales of yarns for dress During the past month the Philadelphia raw wool goods, which were of fair volume last month, have market has been featured by larger sales, firmer prices, diminished. And although the call for yarns for Axj^a w and a generally improved sentiment. Con- minster carpets is reported to be good, in most instances tinued strength displayed at foreign wool woolen carpet yarns are in only fair request. But the market has not been entirely without improve auctions, notwithstanding the poor de mand from this country, and decided improvement in ment. Spinners of knitting yarns, which have sold more sales in the Boston market, in addition to broadening actively than weaving yarns, report that recently the de local business, have been largely responsible for the mand for French spun knitting yarns and yarns for bath better feeling. Although many spinners are still buving ing suits has increased. Not only are spot sales larger, mainly for their current needs, as manifested by the fact but some future orders have been placed. O f the busi that immediate deliveries are often specified, others are ness on the books, however, the majority is for delivery showing more disposition to buy for the future. Medium within the next 60 days, and most manufacturers con and low grade wools have, in general, comprised the tinue to cover their immediate needs only. Still, a greater part of the sales. But recently, more interest in number of spinners have secured sufficient business to fine wools has also been shown, especially for Ohio fine enable them to run most of their equipment without ac delaines. cumulating large stocks of finished goods. Prices, how Dealers are now less inclined to grant concessions, and ever, are very unsatisfactory to the spinner, and decided in some instances quotations have been advanced. The resistance to any advance is reported. As compared with bulk of the consigned wool in this market is being held last month, quotations are for the most part unchanged. for higher prices, and in this connection it must be re Collections are fair. Demand for woolen and worsted goods has shown membered that as compared w ith quotations in foreign countries, domestic prices for raw wool are relatively some improvement during the past month but is not as low. Evidence of this is to be seen in the small imports Woolen and “ ronS as “ was a/ ear , , , Many producers of women s of foreign wools into this country and the re-exporting worsted goods fabricsF ha¥e continued to of them. report a fair volume of business, but the call for men’s Consequently stocks of wool in and afloat to the United W O OL STO C K S IN AND AFLOAT TO TH E UNITED STATES* (in pounds) Dealers September 20 1923 June 30, 1923............................... M a rch 31, 1923........................... D ecem ber 31, 1922..................... Septem ber 30, 1922..................... June 30, 1922............................... Total Boston Philadelphia All others 216,864,338 232,032,947 174,150,542 177,715,894 206,303,157 181,203,498 126,048,294 147,555,952 119,682,792 117,552,127 127,517,286 108,167,907 23,503,276 31,537,599 25,341,283 23,203,634 28,554,899 24,039,626 67 312 768 52,939^396 29,126,467 36,960.133 50,230,972 48,995,965 ♦Departments of Commerce and of Agriculture. Manufacturers Total 180,395,847 215,989,803 235.787,655 250,767,717 245,504,564 225,081,781 397,260,185 448,022,750 409,938,197 428,483,611 451,807,721 406,285,279 T he 2.0 B usiness fabrics, except overcoatings, which in some instances have sold well, is still unsatisfactory. Cassimeres are in poor request. In the dress goods division, sport fabrics and fancy goods have comprised the greater part of the business, the demand for staples being rather quiet. Satin twills and wool crepes in checks, stripes, and dis tinctive colorings have in some cases been in fair request, although wool crepes are not as active as they were in the previous season. The demand for camel’s hair fabrics for women’s cloakings continues to be good, and manu facturers have booked a satisfactory amount of orders for future delivery. But owing to the conservative policy of buyers, most of the business in both men’s wear and dress goods is for prompt shipment. Of the orders on the books about three quarters are for delivery within the next 60 days. It is noteworthy, however, that the number of unfilled orders is larger than it was last month, and that more than half of the firms reporting to this bank have in creased operations and are running most of their equip ment. But some mills, especially those making men’s wxar, are still operating on curtailed schedules. A t the present rate of production unfilled orders w ill insure operations for from two to three months. Stocks of finished goods and raw materials in the hands of pro ducers are moderate, but the former are stationary, while the latter are decreasing. Both skilled and unskilled labor is in adequate supply. Quotations, though weak, show little change since last month. But considerable resistance to present prices is reported, and in order to move stocks some con cessions have been granted. Collections range from poor to fair and are not as prompt as they were a year ago. SILK . After quotations on raw silk had risen about 45 per cent during the first half of September, they again weak ened and are now but slightly higher Raw silk than they were before the earthquake. Both supply and demand factors have been responsible for this decline. Poor business in silk goods and in thrown silk caused manufacturers to buy raw silk very sparingly, and in many cases plant oper ations were curtailed. Moreover, shipments of raw silk from Japan and other countries have been larger than was generally expected. Consequently no scarcity of raw silk has developed, and notwithstanding lower prices, the demand is still quiet. The accompanying chart shows that imports of raw silk into this country were somewhat larger during October than during September; in fact, imports ex ceeded deliveries to mills by 5,3iz bales. As a result, stocks in American warehouses increased and were larger than at any time since March. Of the shipments received during October, 17,049 bales were Japanese silks. R eview D ecem ber Alter a sharp decrease during the first half of 1923, stocks of raw silk in Ameri can warehouses have again increased. No scarcity of raw silk has developed, owing to comparatively small deliveries to mills and larger imports than were anticipated. Source— Silk Association of America Unsettled prices have been one of the most disturbing elements in the silk goods business during the past few months. In consequence of the sharp Silk goods increase in quotations on raw silk, following the earthquake, many man ufacturers of silk fabrics, whose stocks of raw materials were for the most part rather light, raised their prices on finished goods. But demand for the latter was con siderably reduced, and buyers in general refused to place orders in excess of their current needs. Since quotations on raw silk- have again receded almost to the level of September i, many producers have reduced prices on silk fabrics. During the month decreases ranged from ■ 5 to 10 per cent. However, demand has not been stimu lated as yet, and owing to considerable resistance to present prices, quotations are weak. In a quiet market, crepes are in better request than other fabrics, and printed crepes in conservative patterns are selling fairly well. Notwithstanding the present slow demand, which is in part due to seasonal factors, producers expect a good spring business, and some manufacturers are operating for stock. As a result, supplies of finished goods are moderately heavy and are increasing. Stocks of raw materials are moderately light and are either stationary or decreasing. Operations in this district vary consider ably, but the majority of producers are running only from 60 to 80 per cent of their equipment. Of twentytwo firms reporting to this bank, sixteen state that, as compared w ith a month ago, operations are unchanged, three that they have been curtailed, and three that they have increased. Although the supply of labor is in general sufficient, some scarcity of experienced help is still reported. Collections are fair and show little change since last month. 1 9^ T hird F ederal Thrown silk, like silk fabrics, is in poor request, and the majority of producers state that demand has de creased since last month and is Thrown silk smaller than it was a year ago. For the most part, manufacturers of silk goods have purchased only enough thrown silk to cover their actual needs. Consequently most of the business on the books of throwsters is for delivery within the next 30 days. Rather than accumulate stock, however, producers have curtailed operations and are running only from 40 to 60 per cent of their equipment. Stocks of finished goods and of raw silk are light and are de creasing. But in spite of curtailment, more than half of the firms reporting to this bank state that skilled labor is scarce. In sympathy with declining quotations on raw silk, prices of thrown silk have also been lowered, the re ductions in some instances ranging from 5 to xo per cent during the past month; and because of considerable resistance, quotations are still weak. With regard to collections, statements are conflicting, some throwsters reporting that they are slow and others that they are fairly good. H O SIE R Y Hosiery manufacturers have been confronted with an other and a considerable change in the raw material markets during the past month. This has in some cases retarded business to no small extent, but in others it has improved conditions. Raw silk and hosiery tram, both of which advanced sensationally during September and lost a considerable part of that gain during October, have continued to fall in price during November and have now almost reached the levels at which they were quoted before the Japanese disaster. Cotton and cotton yarns, including mercerized, have on the contrary advanced sharply and are selling at the highest prices of the season. Artificial silk, however, has remained unchanged throughout this period of dis turbed quotations. The result of these conditions is seen in a considerable increase in the use of artificial silk, usually in combina tion with either pure silk or mercerized cotton, but in some cases in hosiery made entirely of artificial silk. Pure silk hosiery, however, is now in increasing demand because of more satisfactory prices. The recent advance in the price of cotton has seriously affected mills whose principal output is cotton hosiery, and not only in this district but in the large southern mills it is reported that the amount of machinery that is idle has increased. The advance in the quotations for low-end hosiery w ill make it impossible to retail it at former prices, and this is a serious obstacle to trade. If, for instance, hosiery that has been retailing at 15 cents per pair must be increased to, let us say, xo or X5 cents, the business in that trade w ill come virtually to a standstill. Therefore, all such ad vances are being resisted by both wholesaler and retailer. R eserve D istrict 2.1 HOSIERY INDUSTRY Third Federal Reserve District . (In terms of dozens of pairs) Oct., 1923 Oct., 1923 compared with compared w-ith Sept., 1923 Oct., 1922 Firms selling to the wholesale trade: Number of reporting firms—30 Product manufactured during month Finished product on hand at end of month............................................ Orders booked during month........... Cancellations received during month Shipments during month................. Unfilled orders on hand at end of month............................................ +19.4% + 11.3% + 6.7 “ —34.0 “ + 3 .2 “ + 1 .6 “ + 2 7 .4 “ -4 3 .7 “ - 7.0“ + 1.9“ + 2 .6 “ -1 6 .8 “ + 9 .9 “ + 11.4“ — 5.5 “ -1 9 .6 “ -5 1 .3 “ + 6 .8 “ + 17.1 “ -4 2 .8 “ -3 6 .3 “ + 2 2 .0 “ -1 6 .7 “ -1 8 .6 “ Firms selling to the retail trade: Number of reporting firms—9 Product manufactured during month Finished product on hand at end of month............................................ Orders booked during month........... Cancellations received during month Shipments during month................. Unfilled orders on hand at end of • month............................................ M ills selling to the wholesale trade have in a consider able number of cases booked orders for delivery up to M ay, 19x4. These sales include hosiery of many kinds, but men’s and women’s of silk and artificial silk com bined, and infants’ of mercerized cotton and of mer cerized cotton and artificial silk in combination, are prominent in the sales for future delivery. Retail mills, however, have sold very little merchandise for delivery later than January. The accompanying chart shows the monthly produc tion by certain seamless and full-fashioned mills in this district since the beginning of 19x1. During that year a Since the end of the strike in 1921, the production of full-fashioned hosiery has been subject to less violent fluctuations than has seamless hosiery. Source— Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2.2. T he B usiness strike in a number of the full-fashioned mills not only curtailed production of that kind of hosiery but in creased the demand for seamless. Since 192.1 more normal conditions have prevailed, and the seasonal variations are more clearly marked. According to the report of the Department of Com merce, production again decreased in September as com pared w ith the previous month, 7,72. mills producing 3,814,694 dozen pairs in September and 4,2.01,114 in August. Shipments also fell from 6,645,888 in August to 6,477,511 in September, but orders booked increased from 3,574,411 to 5,057,467 during the same periods; and un filled orders were 8,351,988 dozen pairs on September 30, as compared w ith 7,488,878 on August 31. In the Third Federal Reserve District production in October increased as compared w ith September and with October, 1911, in both wholesale and retail mills, as is shown in the table on page 11. Collection reports vary greatly, some stating that they are good, others fair. But an increasing number are to the effect that collections have become slower and are poor. UNDERWEAR The past month has been a quiet one with manufactur ers of underwear. Much of the business that was in prospect has been rendered impossible of acceptance by the manufacturer on account of the great increase in the cost of cotton yarns and the refusal of buyers to pay a proportionate advance for underwear. Some orders for winter weights, for stock replacement, it is true, have been booked, but in cases in which an advance in price was paid the advance was only a slight one. Buyers UNDERWEAR INDUSTRY Third Federal Reserve District (In terms of dozens) Oct,, 1923 Oct., 1923 compared with compared with Sept., 1923 Oct., 1922 Summer underwear Number of reporting firms— 11 Product manufactured during month Finished product on hand at end of month........................................... Orders booked during month........... Cancellations received during month Shipments during month................. Unfilled orders on hand at end of ^ month................................. +45.1% +28.4% +33.6 “ —38.0 " -1 9 .9 “ - 5 .7" - 2 6 .3 " + 3 8 .3 " - + 4 1 .5 " 3 .5 " Winter underwear Number of reporting firms— 9 Product manufactured during month Finished product on hand at end of month................................... Orders booked during month........... Cancellations received during month Shipments during month................. Unfilled orders on hand at end of month....................................... +29.6% +41.9% + 7 .7 " + 12.9“ - 2 6 .7 " -1 8 .2 " - 4 .2 “ +30.3 " - 2 9 .2 " + 4 1 .7 " R eview D ecem ber may later on change their attitude, but so far they have looked upon the threatened shortage in the cotton crop w ith equanimity. In spring weights, many of the wholesalers bought early in the season at prices which to-day must appear very attractive, but the amount sold by them to retailers is said to be comparatively small, and until a larger part of their purchases is contracted for, the wholesalers w ill probably take little interest in making further com mitments. Only a very few plants in this district are operating at capacity. Some are running at as low as 10 per cent and others at as high as 90 per cent, the probable average being about 65 per cent. Collections are the same as they were a month ago and are either fair or good. In the preceding table the reports of firms in the Third Federal Reserve District are summarized. FLOOR COVERINGS The buying of carpets and rugs this season is very different in character from that of recent seasons. Few jobbers or retailers are placing orders for more than sixty days’ requirements, and many are buying even more closely than that . This hesitancy on the part of buyers brings the carpet and rug industry in line with many others, and w ill result in manufacturers being compelled to carry stocks from which to fill orders for prompt shipment. In fact, some buyers have plainlv told manufacturers that in placing their orders they w ill favor those who have the merchandise on hand and ready to ship. During the past month orders for most weaves, except low grades such as art-squares and wool fibres, have been in good volume. The demand for Wiltons has improved, especially for worsteds; and manufacturers of Axminsters are kept busy filling orders, largely, however, for the lower grades. The request for carpets is increas ing. Mills manufacturing tapestries report buying for both prompt delivery and delivery in January, and are as a rule running on full time; in fact, some are working part of their machinery overtime. Velvets too, are meeting with a fair market. In a word, now that prices have been named for the next few months and raw material markets keep so strong as to prevent any likeli hood of an early lowering of quotations, buyers appear to be better satisfied with the situation. Some manu facturers, however, state that there is still resistance, on the part of buyers, to their present quotations. Manufacturers of linoleums and of felt-base goods are producing and selling larger quantities than in anv former year. The market for these goods is country wide, and that new outlets have been found is manifest. For felt-base lines an increasing export demand is reported, and more manufacturers are entering this field. As the future activity of the floor covering industry is closely associated with that of building, some of the 1913 T hird F ederal large producers have made investigations into the build ing situation and report that the prospects are good for a continuation of construction work in 19x4 on a large scale. Collections in most lines of floor coverings are said to be either fair or good, and some firms report that they show an improvement over those of last month. FURNITURE Furniture manufacturers report that their products are in fair demand and that business is better than it was at the close of summer, but not so active as in November, 19Z Z . Retailers of furniture are buying for immediate needs only, and few factories except those that have contracts for furnishing large hotels and apartment houses, have more than 30 days’ business on hand. Be cause of the completion of many houses that were erected during the summer, the call for tables, chairs, bedroom suits, dining-room suits, parlor suits, etc., is fairly good. Producers of cheap furniture, however, state that the demand is not as heavy as had been expected, and makers of medium and high-priced furnishings are busier than the manufacturers of cheaper grades. The call for cabinets for the radio and phonograph industries is good, and desks and office furniture are selling in fair volume. In general, the present demand for furniture is fairly good, but little business for future delivery has been received. Reports to this bank show that the aver age of operations at factories in this district is 88 per cent of capacity. Prices of furniture are firm and show little change from those of a month ago. Quotations on raw materials also are firm. Hardwoods, plate glass, glue, veneer, and varnishes have remained practically stationary in price during the past three months. Stocks of furniture at most factories are moderate and are remaining stationary, although a few manufacturers are increasing them in anticipation of receiving large orders for next spring. Supplies of raw materials, too, are moderate. Unskilled labor is in sufficient supply at all factories, but skilled labor is scarce. Some employers are offering slightly higher wages to secure cabinet makers and other skilled workmen, but in general wages are un changed. Collections are reported as being fair and show no change since October. LEATHER Packers have disposed of a fair number of hides during the past month, but prices continue to decline in all descriptions in which the tradHideS and skins ing has reached good propor tions. Quotations on cow-hides are particularly weak: branded hides fell cents to 8 cents; heavy native ip2 cents to ii.}^ cents; and light native z % cents to 9lA cents. Heavy native steer hides R eserve D istrict 3d were not active, but are offered at 1 4 ^ cents, a decline of a half cent. Buyers, however, are holding back. Texas steer hides declined cents in both heavies and lights. Country hide markets are thoroughly demoral ized, and prices have declined sharply during the month, heavy steers being lower by from z to 3 cents and heavv cows by cents. As prices of these a month ago ranged from 11 cents down, the recent losses are severe. American hides have now reached a price level at which some European buyers are becoming interested, although no large transactions are reported. Calf skins have held fairly firm, packer skins and Chicago cities having sold at a decline of a half cent. Goat skins are lower in price than they were a month ago; the Calcutta market has dropped quite sharply, and other leading centers report weakness. Tanners’ purchases have been confined largely to cheap spot lots suitable for trimming, and all such offerings are said to have been purchased. Only a few tanners are showing an interest in imports, many of them being content to let the market take its course and buying only when sales of kid justify it. Sheep skins from foreign countries are lower in price than they were earlier in the season by about 10 per cent, but the latest quotations indicate that the market is hardening. Prices of domestic sheep skins, however, have not receded from the higher level reached last spring. The leather markets continue to be dull, w ith prices favoring the buyer. Shoe manufacturers are purchasing only for their immediate needs, and as Leather these are said to be less than they were a month ago, the total volume of shoe leather sold is probably smaller than it was then. The curtail ment in the production of heavy leathers which was inaugurated by the tanners last spring shows clearly in the following table, but that sales during September de creased even faster than production is evidenced by the increase in stocks. September, 1923, as compared with August, 1923 R a elrs, b e n d s a n d s i d e s ...................................... Production Stock at end during month of month -1 7 .9 -1 3 .6 -1 1 .3 + .6 + 1 .7 + .9 Belt makers state that although buying is entirely for early shipment, the volume of business is good. Prices are fairly well maintained, but an increased number of reports show that quotations are being shaded by some belt makers. But this is to be expected, as butts have declined in price considerably in recent months. In upper leathers too, with the exception of cattle side, production had begun to decrease in September, as is shown in the following table, and later reports indicate that further curtailment has since been accomplished. Stocks also decreased. T he M September, 1923, as com pared with August, 1923 B usiness Production Stock at end during month of month Cattle side, upper..................................... + 2.8 Calf and kip.............................................. - 2.7 Goat and k id ............................................. j —12.7* | Cabretta.................................................... -1 .3 -3 .3 -1 .4 -3 .8 ♦Production figures not separated. In calf leathers, suede is still selling in fair volume, al though the demand is much weaker than it was in early autumn. Calf grain leathers in black, in both heavy and light weights, are being bought by some manufacturers, but browns are in slackening request. For the tops of children’s shoes considerable white calf leather is being called for. Kid leathers in black in the low grades con tinue in good demand, but total sales of this leather are disappointingly small, and some reported larger pur chases lack confirmation. Sheep leathers are in fair re quest for trimming, lining, hat bands, and chamois, but the demand from glove manufacturers has decreased. Manufacturers of shoes for women are receiving from week to week only a fair volume of orders, practically all of which call for delivery as soon as possiShoes ble. No forward business of moment has been booked. Some reports of shading of prices have been received, but the reductions are slight and are made only by manufacturers who are anxious to keep their plants working until spring business begins. On December i the new wage scales go into effect in most Philadelphia factories, and in nearly all cases the cost of making shoes w ill be somewhat increased. The materials being used for present orders are patent leather, suede, grain calf, and for evening wear, satin and brocades. In factories making children’s shoes a considerable spring business has been received, and some are booked to capacity up to the end of April. Prices for these shoes are generally unchanged. Shoes w ith patent leather vamps and white or colored tops are popular, and grain calf is also largely used. Staple lines of foot wear, such as are made by the larger producing com panies, are reported to be in increased demand, which is probably due, in part at least, to certain reductions in price. BOOT AND SHOE INDUSTRY Third Federal Reserve District Number of reporting firms— 31 (In terms of pairs) Product manufactured during month. . Shipments during month..................... Orders booked during month.............. Orders on hand at end of month......... Cancellations received during month. . Stocks (unsold) on hand at end of month................................................. Oct., 1923 Oct., 1923 compared with compared with Oct., 1922 Sept., 1923 + 9.6% - 1.7“ +75.8 “ + 16.6“ +37.6 “ + 7.3% ' - 3 .3 “ -2 9 .5 “ + 1 .6 “ -6 0 .8 “ + 3 9 .8 “ + 3 5 .4 “ R eview D ecem ber As indicated by us last month, production of shoes in this country during September decreased as compared with that of last September. This is the first month in this year which did not run ahead of 1922. The Sep tember production figures are 17,471,695 pairs in 192.3, and 2.8,188,169 in 1911. This total decrease of 817,000 pairs was more than exceeded by the decrease in leather shoes, which was 1,087,000 pairs. The classes described as “ canvas, satin and other fabric’ ’ and “ all others (slippers and miscellaneous)’ ’ both show considerable increases. Even so, however, production for nine months of 1913 is more than 35,000,000 pairs greater than that of the same period in 1911, and is only 53,000,000 pairs less than the total for the calendar year 1911. RETAIL SHOE TRADE Third Federal Reserve District (In terms of dollars) 1. Net sales: (a) Oct., 1923, as compared with Sept., 1923...... (b) Oct., 1923, as compared with Oct., 1922....... (c) July 1 to Oct. 31, 1923, as compared with July 1 to Oct. 31, 1922............................. +29.8% + 8.8 “ + 5.1 “ 2. Stocks (selling price): (a) Oct., 1923, as compared with Sept., 1923...... (b) Oct., 1923, as compared with Oct., 1922....... + 3 .4 % +11.0 “ 3. Rate of turnover (times per year based on cu mulative period): (a) July 1 to Oct. 31, 1923.................................... (b) July 1 to Oct. 31, 1922..................................... Number of stores reporting above items: 1........................ 12 2 ....................... 10 2.6% 2.9 “ 3 ......................... 9 Collection reports vary greatly. Some firms say that they are good, and more that they are fair; but the number reporting them as slow has increased consider ably. In the Third Federal Reserve District the produc tion of shoes by reporting firms during October, as shown in the preceding table, was 7.3 per cent greater than that of October, 1922. Orders at hand on October 31 were 1.6 per cent larger than at the same period a year ago. At wholesale shoes have sold but poorly, according to preliminary reports for November. Distribution by retailers is said to be below expectation, and stocks have to be reduced before the retailer is w illing to make further commitments. From the table on page 10 it w ill be seen that sales in October were larger by 4.2 per cent than in September, but that as compared with October, 1922, sales decreased 6.5 per cent. Better sales of shoes at retail during the latter part of October brought the total for the month above that of October, 1922. During November, however, business in the stores is said to have been very spotty, and it is impossible to estimate how the total w ill compare with that of a year ago. But the large number of advertised sales may bring the hoped for increase. T h ir d i2 ii F e d e r a l The preceding table shows that sales by reporting firms in October were z^.8 per cent greater than those of September, and 8.8 per cent larger than in October, 192.1. Stocks continue to be somewhat heavier than they were a year ago. RUBBER As the United States consumes about three quarters of the rubber used in the world and as the manufacture of tires accounts for about 80 per cent Crude rubber of domestic consumption, the for tunes of the crude rubber industry are linked more or less closely w ith those of the tire industry. M ainly because of the heavy production of rubber tires during the first five months of 192.3, consumption of crude rubber in this country during that period was large. Im ports of crude rubber, too, were of record proportions. But disappointing sales in tires caused a sharp curtail ment of operations in the factories during June, and as a result, the demand for crude rubber was reduced. Consequently, since imports continued heavy until July, stocks of crude rubber in this country increased. But during July, imports declined sharply, as is shown by the table below. Total imports during the first six months of the year were 39.1 per cent greater than in the same period of 192.1, but during the third quarter im ports were 17.1 per cent smaller than last year. Since prices are much higher this year than last, however, the total value of imports during the third quarter was con siderably greater in 1913 than in 1911. As a result of curtailed imports, supplies of crude rubber in the United States have again decreased and according to the Rubber Association of America, were 85,658 tons on September 30, in contrast w ith 100,885 tons on June 30. London stocks which increased from 47,600 tons on August 17 to 60,405 tons on November 11, chiefly because of smaller takings from this country, began to decline during the past month and on November 19 were 59,958 tons. Moreover, factory buying of crude rubber is reported to have improved and during October imports increased 51.4 percent over those of the preced ing month. R e s e r v e D istr ict 11 Therefore, prices of crude rubber which had declined to 16M cents per pound for first latex crepe during October, have again strengthened and on November 1 1 that grade was quoted at i8J^ cents. The average London price for the three months of August, September, and October was not sufficiently high to permit the release, after November 1, of 65 per cent of the “ standard” pro duction in Ceylon and Malaya, and consequently only 60 per cent w ill be released until the end of January, as was the case in the previous quarter. Price revisions have continued to cause unsettled conditions in the rubber tire business. Following the reduction of quotations on 30 x 3y2 Rubber tires inch tires during September, an other change was made during Octo ber by which prices of large size tires were reduced and Stocks of pneumatic casings, which because of a decline in shipments during the spring became exceptionally heavy in M ay and June, have since been reduced by curtailment of operations and increased shipments. Source— Rubber Association o f America quotations on the small size were increased. Moreover, the trade discount for cash was decreased from 5 to 2 per cent, and it was announced that consumers’ price lists would be abolished. Although raw materials and IM PORTS OF CRUDE RUBBER INTO THE UNITED STATES* 1922 1923 1921 1920 M onth October............................... September........................... August................................ July......................... v. ......... June..................................... M ay.................................... April.................................... March................................. February............................. January............................... ♦Department of Commerce. Quantity (in pounds) Value (in dollars) 39,473,412 25,902,645 42,741,430 44,634,798 79,188,711 80,107,447 69,580.014 69,280j706 60,379,290 79,763,620 $7,345,347 6,509,319 11,612,618 13,008,840 23,941,937 24,953,222 21,925,814 19,041,565 13,150,823 14,310,825 Quantity (in pounds) Value (in dollars) 74,315,183 $10,189,101 44,344,862 6,202,136 54,332,275 7,884,512 56,854,758 8,259,754 50,952,024 7,422,114 35.725.240 5,427,605 43,407,359 7,272,098 64,215,222 10,999,040 66.744.240 10,827,106 8,110,912 54,010,946 Quantity (in pounds) Value (in dollars) Quantity (in pounds) Value (in dollars) 47,642,303 34,546,411 33,103,804 27,647,874 34,624,748 23,890,838 26,087,408 28,508,995 21,933,165 26,911,753 $6,694,418 4,750,534 4,938,038 4,214,459 5,831,817 4,051,921 5,505,177 8,683,368 6,885,677 7,922,433 20,516,090 27,883,748 44,047,264 45,454,437 43,538,723 44,099,902 63,629,269 82,477,607 71,354,904 66,427,415 $7,518,880 10,957,854 20,097,267 19,982,559 19,961,307 19,788,550 29,489,666 37,383,161 30,646,535 27,967,228 T he 2.6 B usiness labor costs are comparatively high, tires are selling at about the lowest prices in the history of the country. These reductions have been largely due to overpro duction of tires, as is seen in the preceding chart. During the first six months of 192.3, the production of pneumatic casings exceeded shipments by 18.8 per cent. As a result, stocks in the hands of manufacturers in creased from 4,599^08 on December 31, iyzz, to 7,040,600 on June 30, 192.3. On that date they were larger than at any time in the past three years. But they have been re duced somewhat bv curtailment of operations, and since June shipments of pneumatic casings have exceeded production. As dealers have begun to place orders for tires under the spring dating plan, the demand has improved during the past month, and some producers state that business is fairly active, though at unsatisfactory prices. De liveries on these orders w ill begin immediately or in the near future, but payment w ill not be made until spring. In consequence of the better demand, production has in some instances been increased, but it is still com paratively small. Collections are fair. Mainly because of lessened activity in many in dustries, the demand for mechanical and hard rubber Mprhaniral g°ods>which waS good in August’ has since diminished, and sales in rubber goods a num^er Qf cases are reported to be from 10 to 15 per cent smaller. However, owing to large sales during the greater part of 192.3, total sales of mechanical goods during the current year are in most instances considerably in excess of those of last year, and although consumers are buying more conservatively, demand is still fair. During the past month, spring dat ing orders have begun to come in, and consequently some manufacturers report that demand has increased. Municipalities have recently placed large orders for fire hose, and a few producers state that railroads are buying quantities of steam hose and other goods for winter use. Of the business on the books, the majority is for delivery within the next 60 days. Factories making mechanical and hard rubber goods are in general operating about three-fourths of their equipment, although some are running at total capacity and a few are working overtime. Labor has been in sufficient supply. Wages are for the most part unchanged, but in isolated cases they have been somewhat reduced. In view of the fluctuation of quotations on raw cotton and rubber and the uncertain trend of demand, manu facturers are covering their future needs very cautiously, and as a result, supplies of raw materials are reported to be moderately light. . In spite of the sharp advance in quotations on cotton fabrics, prices of mechanical rubber goods have not been changed. But because of the keen competition for busi ness, some underbidding is reported, especially when the size of the order is large. Collections are fairly good. R eview D ecem ber PAPER The paper industry, in general, is in about the same condition as it was in October, but is not as active as in November, 192.1. Some grades of paper are in better demand than they were last month, but other grades are in poorer request. Fine papers, particularly bond and writing papers, are more active than they were a month ago, but book papers show little improvement, and mills making these are operating at about 80 per cent of capacity. Buying for the holiday needs has stimulated the wrapping and kraft paper markets, and consequently sales exceed those of last month. But mills’ stocks have been reduced only slightly. Manufacturers of tissues, toilet papers, and crepe towels report that business is exceptionally dull for this season of the year and that production at their mills has declined to 50 per cent of capacity. Manila papers and card boards are selling well, and manufacturers of these are operating at close to capacity. Envelopes are in fairly good demand, and most factories are running at 85 per cent. The call for box boards is not as heavy as it was a month ago and the manufacturers report that business during September, October, and November has been much smaller than it was in the same months of 192JL. Practically all orders are for prompt shipment, and few mills have enough business on hand to insure their present rate of pro duction for more than two weeks. Jobbers state that their sales are satisfactory and that fine, book, and wrapping papers are selling well. However, the un certainty as to prices has caused consumers to buy more closely than at any time this year, and practically no orders for future delivery, except on newsprint papers, are being received. Paper prices display considerable weakness. News print and fine papers are the only grades that are hold- T hird 12k 1 F ederal ing firm. Some concessions to large buyers are being offered in the book grades, and coarse paper prices, particularly on heavy wrapping and kraft papers, are weak, because of heavy imports from Scandinavian countries. Nearly all grades of paper board are from 6 to io per cent cheaper than they were a month ago, and to large buyers concessions are offered on even these lower quotations. Mechanical pulp and all grades of chemical pulp, except kraft, are firm in price. Kraft pulp quo tations are rather weak, and concessions in price are being offered. The chart on page z6 of paper pulp prices shows how well prices have been sustained. Mechanical and sul phite pulps are higher than they were at any time last year, likewise kraft pulp; but the latter is cheaper than it was in February. Soda pulp is slightly lower than it was during last fall and the past winter. Finished stocks at the mills vary from light to moder ate and are remaining stationary. Supplies of raw materials are moderate. The supply of both skilled and unskilled labor is sufficient at the majority of mills, and wages are unchanged. Collections vary from fair to good and are much the same as they were a month ago. PAPER BOXES Chipboard and newsboard boxes are in good request, but the demand for corrugated boxes and for fibre ship ping containers is poor. In general, the paper box in dustry is not so active as it was in November, 19Z Z . Orders for boxes for the holiday trade are still large, but little new business of this class has appeared during the month, because the holiday season is almost over. The candy, building hardware, electrical supply, foodstuffs, shirt, and hosiery industries are at present the heaviest buyers. Manufacturers of perfumes and patent medi cines are also placing big orders, but makers of under wear, shoes, and clothing are buying but lightly. Chip and newsboard box factories in this district are operating at about 85 per cent of capacity, and all orders are for delivery within 60 days. Manufacturers of corrugated boxes and of heavy shipping containers report that not only is the immediate demand light, but that the number of inquiries being received concerning new business is small. The amount of business on their books is con siderably less than it was a month ago, and nearly all factories are running on a hand to mouth basis. Few manufacturers have more orders in hand than they can fill in a week at the present rate of production, which averages about 65 per cent of capacity. Paper box prices display considerable weakness, and competition, particularly in corrugated boxes and heavy containers, is severe. Nearly all grades of paper board are lower in price than they were in the middle of October, and concessions are freely offered to big buyers. Chip board and newsboard, in the Philadelphia market, have declined to $50 per ton, a drop of $5 from the quota tions of a month ago. R eserve D istrict 2-7 Stocks of finished boxes at the majority of factories are light, because of heavy deliveries on holiday orders during the month; and stocks of raw materials are mod erate. A t many chip and newsboard box factories the supply of both skilled and unskilled girl workers is short, but at the other paper box plants the labor supply is ade quate. Wages, on the whole, show little change. Col lections are fair and the same as they were a month ago. CIGARS A N D CIGARETTES The demand for cigars and cigarettes is good and is greater than it was in October. Large manufacturers of nationally advertised cigars report their heaviest sales of the year, and several state that sales are larger than they were in November, 19Z Z . The smaller manufacturers, too, find business better than it was last month, but very few report that their orders exceed those of a year ago. The majority of holiday orders have been filled; only orders to nearby distributors and for local needs are yet to be shipped. Class C cigars continue to be the best sellers; but B and D grades are also moving actively. The five-cent cigar is selling well, but it is not in as great demand as it was in November of last year. Production in the cigar factories of this district varies from 75 to 100 per ~ent of capacity, the large manufac turers operating at about 90 per cent and the smaller at about 80 per cent. The majority of orders are for de livery before Christmas. American cigarettes are in heavy demand, and the factories making these are operating at close to capacity.. Turkish cigarettes are in fair request and are selling better than they did last month or in November, 19Z Z , and consequently factory operations have been increased to 75 per cent. The production of large cigars and cigarettes in October was greater than in October, 19Z Z . The fol lowing chart, based upon sales of internal revenue The total production of large cigars and of small cigarettes in October was larger than in October, 1922 z8 T he B usiness R eview D ecem ber stamps, shows how the output compares w ith that of last October. Prices of cigars and cigarettes, in general, are firm and unchanged. Tobacco prices are higher than those pre vailing in November, 19X X , but they show little change since last month. The prices for 19x 3 Connecticut shadegrown tobacco have been announced by the packers and are practically the same as those paid for the 19x1 packings. Stocks of cigars at the factories are moderate and are decreasing, and supplies of raw materials are also mod erate. The supply of both skilled and unskilled labor is sufficient at most factories, although some scarcity of girl workers still exists. Wages are unchanged. Collections range from fair to good and show little variation since October. AGRICULTURE The weather during the month has been favorable for the development of the winter crops. The stand of winter wheat is fair and much better than it was at this time last year. Owing to the late planting in many parts of the district the crop is not as high above the ground as it should be, but germination is heavy. The stand of cover crops is excellent, and pastures too are in good condition. The acreage planted to winter wheat is un doubtedly smaller than it was last fall, but no actual data on acreage w ill be available until next month. In some parts of the district the amount of fall plowing that has been completed is equal to that of a year ago, though in other counties, on account of the severe shortage of labor, it is much smaller and is below normal. Harvesting is now virtually over. Late potatoes and pears and apples have been harvested, and about 80 per cent of the corn has been husked. This fall has witnessed a revival of the old fashioned husking bees, in which many farmers pool their labor and help each other harvest. Corn huskers are scarce, and the wages they demand are higher than ever before. In some counties the prevailing rate of pay is 10 cents per shock, as com pared w ith 9 cents last year and 5 cents in 19x1. The preliminary estimates of the Department of Agri culture show that the total yields of the crops recently harvested are smaller than they were last year, except in the case of tobacco, pears, and cranberries. The per acre yield of white potatoes in New Jersey was about 44 per cent less than in 19X X , and of sweet potatoes, 3X per cent less. In Pennsylvania, however, the per acre yield of these two crops was about the same as it was last year. In both states the yield per acre of corn was smaller than in 19X X , but that of buckwheat was slightly higher. Farm products are, in general, higher than they were a year ago. Wheat and hog prices, it is true, are lower, The price of wheat is about the same as it was last fall and in the fall of but potatoes and hay are higher. 1914, Source— Department of Agriculture but corn, potatoes, hay, milk, cotton, sheep, beef cattle, tobacco, and fruit are higher. The farmers in this dis trict, most of whom practise crop diversification, are undoubtedly in better financial condition than they have been at any time during the past four years. Despite higher wages and smaller yields per acre in many in stances, net profits per acre of crops have been larger than they were last year, chiefly on account of higher prices. The preceding chart shows the trend of prices of some important crops from 1914 to date. Practically all of the farmers in this district who buy beef cattle for winter fattening have now received their supplies, and reports from the Department of Agri culture state that they are taking about the same number as they did last year despite high corn prices. Reports from county agents state that the number of hogs slaughtered during this month has increased, and that the movement to market is slightly greater than it was a year ago. Some attribute this to high corn prices, but most of it is probably due to the increase in hog production which was started last fall. Dairy herds are in good condition and about up to normal. Fall pastures have been good, and up to the first of the month it was necessary to feed the herds only light grain rations. However, nearly all dairymen are now feeding increased grain rations and silage to their cows. M ilk prices on the first of the month declined sharply because of the heavy production of milk during October. The price paid to farmers at the Philadelphia milk shed on November 1 was 7 cents per quart as compared w ith 8^4 cents on October 1. C O M P IL E D AS O F O C T O B E R 2?, 1923 This business report will be sent regularly without charge to any address upon request
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