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B usiness C onditions S eventh FEDERAL R e ser v e f d ist r ic t M O N T H L Y R E V I E W P U B L IS H E D BY T H E F E D E R A L RESERVE BAN K OF CHICAGO Volume 13, No. 6 General Summary H IL E numerous seasonal gains in business and industry in the Seventh district were shown by the April data reported to this bank, defi nite signs of a general broadening of activity are still lacking. The steel industry remains at ap proximately 90 per cent of capacity with, however, a weakening price trend; department store trade, owing to the lateness of Easter, moved upward in the majority of centers as compared with April a year ago, as well as registering a marked increase over March. Automobile production and distribu tion, wholesale and retail, reflecting spring buying on the part of the public, showed a considerable increase over March, while the April retail distribu tion figures showed a smaller decrease in compari son with April last year than had been shown by the year-to-year comparison in the preceding month. Meat packing, though still under last year, moved upward slightly in April as compared with the prior month. Seasonal influences effected improvement in some phases of the employment situation; factory employment declined, but this recession appears to have been to a degree offset by absorption of work ers in the slightly accelerated construction indus try, in farm and road work, bridge building, and other outdoor activities, with a resultant declining number of workers in relation to the number of jobs available in the larger industrial centers. Building continued below last year, but showed an upward movement over March. Lumber distri- W bution, while improved as compared with March, was low in April for this season of the year. The volume of reserve bank credit extended in the district declined during the four weeks ended May 14, reflecting lower volume of borrowing by member banks and lessened holdings of accep tances by the Reserve bank. Demand for commer cial loans increased very moderately at reporting member banks. Rates were slightly easier in Chicago. Credit Conditions and Money Rates A decline in member bank borrowing at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, together with a lessened amount of acceptances purchased by the Reserve bank, during the four weeks ended May 14, were the principal causes for the drop of over 14 million dollars during the period in the amount of reserve bank credit extended in the Chicago district. Member bank borrowings amounted to only $17,967,000 on May 14, a decline of approximately 7 million dollars from a month previous. This de crease was mainly the result of an excess in local Treasury expenditures over receipts, partially offset by a flow of funds jout of the district through inter district settlements for commercial and financial transactions. FE D E R A L R ES ER V E BANK OF CHICAGO, SELE C T E D ITEM S OF CONDITION (Amounts in millions of dollars) M ay 14 1930 Total Bills and Securities.......................... $106.0 Bills Discounted ............................................ 18.0 Bills Bought .................................................... 17.4 U . S. Government Securities...................... 70.6 Total Reserves ................................................ 522.5 Total Deposits ................................................ 352.9 Federal Reserve Notes in Circulation.... 237.8 Ratio of Total Reserves to Deposit and Federal Reserve Note Liabilities Combined ..................................................... 88.4% C hange F rom A p r il 16 M ay 15 1930 1929 $— 19.4 $— 15.3 — 6.9 — 70.5 — 8.6 + 6.8 + 0.2 + 4 4 .3 — 17.3 — 37.2 — 3.9 + 6.3 — 29.5 — 66.8 + L9 + May 31, 1 9 3 0 2.5 Compiled May 27, 1930 During the past four weeks, a slightly heavier demand for commercial loans was evident in the dis trict, while the volume of security loans, as meas ured by the aggregate for reporting member banks, on May 14 showed a moderate recession from the mid-April figure. Rates have tended slightly down ward ; the average rate earned by six large Chicago banks on loans and discounts during the calendar month of April was 5.27 per cent, as against 5.55 in March and 6.17 in April 1929. The prevailing rate on customers’ prime commercial loans the week ended May 15 ranged from 4y2 to 5y2 per cent in six large downtown banks, and from 3 ^ to 6 in ten smaller institutions, registering little change from quotations for the corresponding week in April. In Detroit, the average rate earned during the month of April by five large banks was 5.85, a slight downward movement from the 5.99 per cent in March and comparing with 5.96 in April 1929; the prevailing rate on customers’ commercial loans in that city for the week ended May 15 was 5 to 6 per cent. A number of smaller centers in the dis trict report a slight softening in rates, but quota tions in general are unchanged from a month ago. C o m m e r c ia l P aper Reports from nine dealers in the Middle West show that commercial paper sales remained in good volume during April, being 94 per cent above the same month a year ago; they were lower, however, than for any other month since December and 27 per cent less than in March. The latter recession was attributed principally to a decrease in supply and in a lesser degree to some falling off in demand. Rates for the month ranged from 3 J4 and 4 per cent for low to 4 and 4*4 per cent for high, with the cus tomary charge 3j^ to 4j4 per cent. Commercial paper outstandings, as reported by five of the deal ers, totaled 9 per cent less than on March 31 and 30 per cent in excess of April 30, 1929. The sales of four Chicago concerns aggregated 3 y2 per cent larger for the first half of May than for the corresponding period a month earlier. De mand averaged good and the supply was fair. Sell ing rates closed on May 15 at 4 and 4^4 per cent for high to 3*4 and 3^4 per cent for low; a pre ponderance of the paper moved at to 4 per cent. C h ic a g o O pen B il l M arket The Chicago bill market was less active from April 10 to May 14 than at any other time since the period ended June 12, 1929, according to a compilation for five reporting dealers. Average weekly purchases decreased 61 per cent from the high level which obtained from March 13 to April 9, but were 20 per cent heavier than for the correspond ing period a year ago; sales decreased 50 and 19 per CONDITION O F REPORTING M EM BER BANKS, SEVEN TH DISTRICT (Amounts in millions of dollars) M ay 14 1930 Total Loans and Investments...... ................ ...$3,248 Loans on Securities ........ .............................. ... 1,257 All other Loans.................................................. ... 1,313 Investments ......................................................... ... 678 Net Demand Deposits..................................... ... 1,927 Time Deposits .................................................... ... 1,202 4 Borrowings from Federal Reserve Bank.. Page 3 C hange F rom A p r il 16 M ay 15 1930 $ - 9 — 48 +28 + 11 +22 — 8 — 4 1929 $— 58 +48 — 73 — 33 +78 — 36 — 58 cent in the respective comparisons. A fair supply of acceptances was reported with demand rather limited. Local banks continued to take bills in fairly liberal amounts, while purchases by out-of-town banks were meager during the entire period. Rates firmed during the latter part of April but showed a further decline in May, closing on May 14 at 2*4 per cent for 30-day offerings to 2^4 per cent for those of 180 days. Acceptances were drawn for grain, cotton, sugar, coffee, metals, ore, wool, merchandise, pack ing-house products, and miscellaneous commodi ties. May 14 holdings totaled 33 per cent less than those on April 9 and were 29 per cent below the corresponding Wednesday of last year. B a n k er s’ A cceptan ces Seventh district transactions in bankers’ accept ances declined sharply in April from the peak levels which obtained a month earlier, the recession being principally due to a temporary firming of rates. The aggregate value of bills accepted by fourteen reporting banks was 33 per cent less than in March and on a level with August 1929, though 64 per cent greater than last April. Purchases decreased to the lowest level of any month since last September but continued considerably in excess of a year ago. Sales remained in record volume, owing to a continuation of purchases by foreign central banks; the volume, however, totaled 24 per cent less than in the preceding month. Acceptance holdings of reporting banks were reduced 69 per cent from March 31 and 54 per cent from a year ago. The liability for outstanding acceptances declined 11 per cent on April 30 from the end of March but was 64 per cent greater than for the corresponding date of 1929. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in creased its purchases of bankers’ acceptances $10,000,000, or 28 per cent, in April over March; its portfolio of this class of investment decreased slightly to $19,428,847 at the close of April. During the first half of May, three banks in Chicago accepted approximately the same amount of bills in the aggregate as during the corresponding weeks of April. May acceptances were drawn for grain, sugar, tobacco, merchandise, iron and steel, coffee, packing-house products, and miscellaneous commodities. S a v in g s D e p o s it s Savings deposits on May 1 at 194 banks in the Seventh Federal Reserve district fell 3 per cent be low the corresponding month of 1929, with all states showing a decline. The number of accounts and the average account were likewise below the fig ure for May 1,1929, although, individually, Wiscon sin registered a slight increase in the number of VOLUME OF PA YM EN T B Y CHECK SEV EN TH DISTRICT (Amounts in millions of dollars) A pr . 1930 Chicago ................... ................. ........... ........ $4,199 Detroit, Milwaukee, and Indianapolis 1,562 P er Ce n t of I ncrease or D ecrease F rom M ar. 1930 A pr . 1929 — 3.6 — 0.2 — 5.7 — 9.1 Total four larger cities................. ........ 5,761 34 smaller centers.............................. ........ 1,026 — 2.7 + 1.4 — 6.6 — 5.5 Total 38 centers___________ ____ ........ 6,787 — 2.1 — 6.5 depositors, while Illinois and Indiana showed a small gain in the average account. In the compari son with April 1, very little change was shown in the amount of regular deposits; the number of ac counts declined somewhat, which resulted in a small gain in the average account. Twenty-five banks in Chicago on May 1 reported an increase of over a million dollars in the amount of regular savings deposits as compared with a month pre vious, with 2,688 less accounts. S e c u r it y M a rkets Irregularity prevailed in the Chicago bond mar ket during April, with prices falling somewhat be low the peaks established in the middle of March. This was due partly to the increased activity of the stock market and to the large amount of new offer ings available. New issues were spread generally among public utilities, railroads, municipal, and for eign groups. Retail distribution during the month failed to equal the volume of new bond offerings, and as a result, a tendency developed the latter part of the month for bonds to accumulate in deal ers’ hands. Institutions and banks were the princi pal buyers throughout April. During the first two weeks of May activity increased, and the heavier demand aided in reducing the accumulated inven tory on dealers’ shelves. The influence of easier money largely brought about this situation. The average price of twenty leading- stocks* on the Chi cago Stock Exchange, after dropping rather sharp ly early in May, had recovered considerably by May 14, when it reached $150.09. The following week, however, a downward trend was again in evidence, $145.33 on May 21 comparing with $158.78 on April 21. •Chicago Journal of Commerce. Agricultural Products Reports sent direct to this bank, early in May, by county agricultural agents representing 267,983 farmers located in 194 counties, indicate that the 1930 crop of pigs in the Seventh Federal Reserve district was nearly the same as last year, although an increase was shown for Iowa and Wisconsin and for one-third of the counties in Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois. The district crop of lambs aggregated about 2y2 per cent larger this year than in 1929. Farm work has made rapid progress this season in direct contrast to the delay experienced last spring, being one to two weeks ahead of the usual schedule on May 1, with seeding of small grain practically completed and corn planting well under way. The condition of growing grain, with the possible exception of winter wheat, was good to excellent; in some localities, however, that of oats was only fair. The condition of tame hay and pas tures was under the average for May 1. Some re duction in potato acreage was reported in compari son with planting intentions at the beginning of April. The outlook for fruit was materially re duced during the last week of April because of frost damage in Indiana, Illinois, Southern Iowa, and the lower tier of counties on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan; prospects in other parts of the district, with the possible exception of a few northern coun ties that experienced frosts on May 16, 17, and 18, are as good or better than a year ago. Present in dications suggest a small production of peaches and sour cherries, a fair crop of pears, and a fair to good crop of apples. Warmer weather would benefit all crops. CROP PRODUCTION Estimated by the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics on the basis of May 1 condition. (In thousands of bushels) F ive S tates I ncluding S even th D istr ic t F orecast F in a l 1930 W inter wheat .... 76,285 Rye ...................... 8,574 1929 86,722 8,714 G r a in F orecast 1930 525,070 46,831 U n ited S tates F in a l 1924-28 1929 A verage 578,336 40,629 550,636 50,851 M a r k e t in g April receipts of wheat at interior primary mar kets in the United States continued the decline noted in March and totaled less than in April 1929. Reshipments were higher than in the preceding month, though below a year ago. Exports rose above the exceedingly low figure for March, but did not reach the usual volume for April. At Eng lish markets prospects for light shipments from the southern hemisphere and the decline in grade of some European varieties brought renewed attention to American hard winter wheat. Future trading in wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade recovered 23 per cent from March and totaled 14 per cent more than a year previous. Prices averaged better for the month than in March, but in response to possible shortages of storage space within the next few months, closed at about the low levels of the middle of March. Corn receipts and shipments at the same markets rose in April to a figure larger than last April and well above the five-year average for the month. A larger movement of oats than last month or a year ago was also recorded. The volume of trading in corn futures declined to 41 per cent below the April 1929 volume. Corn and oat prices tended downward from the partial recovery shown at the end of March and early April. M o v e m e n t o f L iv e S t o c k A further increase in the receipts of cattle, lambs, and calves was reported at public stock yards in the United States during April; the marketing of hogs continued to decline, as is usual at this season. Receipts of all live stock, with the excep tion of lambs, were at a lower level than last April or the 1925-29 average for the month. Reshipments to feed lots showed a seasonal expansion over March but totaled less than for the corresponding period of 1929 or the five-year average. (In thousands) C attle Yards in Seventh District, April, 1930 ............................. .......... Federally Inspected Slaughter, United States April, 1930 ............................... .......... March, 1930 ............................. .......... April, 1929 ............................... .......... H ogs L ambs S h e ep and Calves 196 675 335 157 635 615 662 3,480 3,392 3,761 1,387 1,358 1,119 455 388 460 AVERAGE PR IC ES OF LIV E STOCK (P er hundred pounds at Chicago) W e e k E nded M ay 17, 1930 Native Beef Steers (average)i...... $11.00 F at Cows and Heifers .......... ___ 8.35 Calves ........................................... ....... 10.00 Hogs (bulk of sales) ............ . ........ 10.05 Yearling Sheep......................... ....... 7.00 Lambs ........................................... ....... 9.55 A pr il 1930 $12.05 8.60 9.80 10.00 7.65 9.35 M onths of M arch 1930 $12.35 8.75 11.20 10.20 8.40 10.20 A p r il 1929 $13.50 10.70 13.35 11.50 14.00 16.15 Page' 3 M eat pared with a five-year average of 7,139,000 pounds. Prices remained steady throughout the month, aver aging about the same as in March. Receipts of American cheese at Wisconsin pri mary markets, indicative of production at factories within the state, continued to expand during the four weeks ended May 3, gaining 15 per cent over the preceding period and 4 per cent over the corre sponding four weeks last year; redistribution of the commodity, however, decreased 3 and 4 per cent in the respective comparisons. Total inventories of cheese in the United States remained approximately 7,000,000 pounds in excess of the 5-year average for the month, despite a further decline on May 1 from a month earlier. Prices held barely steady during April. P a c k in g Production at slaughtering establishments in the United States gained 3 per cent in April over March but fell 5 per cent below a year ago. Pay rolls at the close of the month showed approxi mately the same number of persons employed in the industry as at the end of March and recorded an in crease of 2y2 per cent in hours worked and of iy 2 per cent in total earnings. Trade in domestic markets averaged good for smoked meats and dry salt pork, in anticipation of the Easter trade, but was rather slow for other packing-house products. Sales billed to domestic and foreign customers increased 6 per cent in April, which is unusual for the month, but aggregated 4 per cent less than for the corresponding period of 1929. Lamb, veal, carcass beef, and pork loin prices declined from March, while those for other commodities remained practically unchanged. Lard quotations, however, trended downward during the period, although the average for the month as a whole was higher than in March. Some further reduction in inventories was shown on May 1. A fair to good domestic demand was reported following the close of the Len ten season. April shipments for export totaled considerably less in volume than a month earlier, and there was a decline in consignment inventories abroad. Demand from Europe was limited, prin cipally because of the low prices prevailing for competitive vegetable fats. Quotations in European markets—especially in the United Kingdom—ruled somewhat under United States parity. Industrial Employment Conditions The number of men employed in reporting lines of industry in the Seventh district continued to de cline in the period from March 15 to April 15. An improvement over the preceding month shown in non-manufacturing groups, was offset by declines in eight of the ten manufacturing groups surveyed. Six of these—textiles, lumber and wood products, metals, leather, paper and printing, and food prod ucts—have failed to show any increase for two months, while vehicles and chemical products de clined in April after having shown betterment a month previous. Manufacturing payrolls followed practically the same trend as the number of men employed, recording a decrease for the total of ten groups. Total earnings of all groups, however, rose slightly, owing to expansion in public utilities in Illinois and in construction work in Illinois and Wisconsin. In the textiles group, the production of men’s clothing registered a seasonal decline in employment. Curtailment in Illinois furniture fac tories and in saw mills and box factories in W is consin influenced the wood products group. In metals and metal products, makers of finished prod ucts lost more than primary producers, machinery and electrical apparatus continuing to decline. Mis cellaneous leather goods decreased considerably, while boots and shoes maintained about the level of the preceding month. The largest expansion in manufacturing employment and payrolls was re- D a ir y P r o d u c t s Creamery butter production in the Seventh Fed eral Reserve district showed a further seasonal expansion of 17 per cent in April but remained under a year ago, the decline from April 1929 aver aging 10 per cent. Sales of the commodity, as re ported by sixty-one concerns in the district, totaled 9 per cent more than in March and 1^4 per cent in excess of last April. Statistics of the American As sociation of Creamery Butter Manufacturers reflect a trend in United States production similar to that of the Seventh district. Creamery butter inven tories at cold-storage warehouses and packing plants in the United States continued to decline, although on May 1 they totaled 22,948,000 pounds as com EM PLO YM EN T AND EARNINGS—SEVEN TH FE D E R A L R ES ER V E DISTRICT I ndustrial Groups N um ber OF N u m ber of W age E arners W e e k E nded M arch 15 A p r il 15 1930 1930 T otal E arnings P er Cent C hange Metals and metal products (other than vehicles).... V eh icles_____________________ __________ ________ Textiles and textile products.......... .............................. Food and related products...................................... - .... Stone, clay, and glass products..................................... Lumber and its products..................................... ............. Chemical products ................................ ......................... Leather products ............................................................... Rubber products* ............................................................. Paper and printing............................................................. Manufacturing (total o f 10 groups)........................... 532 70 136 303 115 230 62 68 6 257 1,779 188,121 39,415 28,191 46,594 12,494 27,809 9,672 16,710 3,537 34,226 406,769 192,953 40,316 29,885 46,686 11,171 28,969 9,814 17,057 3,257 34,666 414,774 — 2.5 — 2.2 — 5.7 — 0.2 + 11.8 — 4.0 — 1.4 — 2.0 + 8.6 Merchandising** ................. ....................................... ...... Public Utilities .................................................................. Coal M in in g ................. ................................................. ...... Building and Construction.............................................. Employment (total of 14 groups)________________ 136 28,217 96,740 9,385 12,197 553,308 28,001 95,525 10,209 10,565 559,074 + + 0.8 1.3 •Wisconsin only. **Illin ois and Wisconsin. Page 4 77 36 206 2,234 — 1.3 — 1.9 — 8.1 + 15.4 — 1.0 W e e k E nded A p r il 15 M arch 15 1930 1930 $ 5,655,009 1,197,939 565,465 1,244,913 344,519 609,510 256,244 336,754 80,542 1,065,545 11,356,440 $ 5,733,545 1,186,980 647,672 1,226,913 303,181 634,412 2 5 8 ,5 7 4 356,113 70,523 1,074,676 11,492,589 751,108 3 ,3 0 0 ,2 3 4 205,991 381,502 15,995,275 744,852 3,10 0 ,2 7 8 237,098 348,166 15,922,983 P er C ent C hange — 1.4 + 0.9 — 12.7 + 1.5 + 13.6 — 3.9 — 0.9 — 5.4 + 14.2 — 0.8 — 1.2 + + — + + 0.8 6.4 13.1 9.6 0.5 corded by the stone, clay, and glass products group, in which gain all industries of the group shared. In contrast to the continued recession in number employed during the four months of 1929, the ratio of applicants to positions available in cities having free employment offices has shown im provement in Illinois each month since January, and in Indiana and Iowa since February. One fac tor, if not the major one, in this apparent improve ment in unemployment is the departure of large numbers of unemployed from the industrial centers to regions having more diversified activity and to farms; and, in addition, the more recent engaging of casual labor for outdoor construction since the advent of good weather. Changes in the ratios during April were: A p r il 1930 Illinois .............................-................... 190 Indiana ................................................. 119 Iowa ............................................ 300 M arch A p r il 1930 209 136 329 1929 134 93 241 Manufacturing A u t o m o b il e P r o d u c t io n and D is t r ib u t io n Schedules of automobile manufacturers were fur ther increased in April, output of 374,606 passenger cars in the United States representing a gain of 12 per cent over the preceding month; production was 30 per cent less than the all-time monthly record of last April but totaled 3 per cent more than for the corresponding month of 1928. April truck out put of 67,459 increased 5 per cent over March and compared with 84,346 in the same month a year ago. Sales of new cars in the Middle West at whole sale and retail, as well as those of used cars, con tinued to gain in April, although the expansion over March was not so large as between February and March; the increase in the value of cars sold at re tail was considerably greater than that in their number, owing to heavy sales of a high-priced car. Wholesale distribution in April again showed a de cided loss from a year ago, while the decline in retail sales in the year-to-year comparison was noticeably smaller than in March. Stocks of both new and used cars continued to decline and those of the former averaged smaller than a year ago; the value of used cars on hand declined in the com parison, but the number remained somewhat heavier. Deferred payment sales constituted 52 per cent of the total retail sales of thirty dealers in April? which compares with 55j^ per cent in M IDW EST DISTRIBUTION OF AUTOMOBILES Changes in April 1930 from previous months P er C ent C hange F rom M arch 1930 New cars Wholesale— Number sold................... Value .........................— Retail— Number sold.................... Value ............................... On hand April 30 — Number .......................... Value ............................... Used cars Number sold.................... Salable on hand— Number ........................... Value ............................... A p r il 1929 Com panies I ncluded M arch 1930 A pr il 1929 + 20.9 — 49.7 — 45.4 29 29 29 29 + 17.9 + 35.4 — 19.3 — 23.7 61 61 59 59 — 20.3 — 21.5 — 20.5 — 29.2 62 62 60 60 + 18.3 I ron a n d S t e e l P roducts Shipments of finished steel products from plants in the Chicago district continued in substantial vol ume through April, though totaling a little less than in the preceding month or a year ago. Ingot production remained at about 95 per cent of capac ity during the month, but toward the middle of May was reduced very slightly to nearer 90 per cent. Recent new business has been fair in vol ume. April pig iron production in the Illinois and Indiana district showed little change from March, but the daily average of 22,739 tons was lower than for any other April since 1926 and compared with 25,610 tons a year ago. Price weakness has been a feature of the Chi cago and other markets since the latter part of March. The composite price of finished steel prod ucts, as compiled by Iron Age for the country as a whole, dropped from 2.312 cents per pound for March to 2.264 cents in April; in the early part of May it was further reduced to 2.228 cents, and again on May 20 to 2.214. At Chicago, plates, shapes, and bars, following declines the end of March or in early April, experienced further revisions downward in the first week of May, and two weeks later the first two items dropped another $1 per ton. The price of pig iron was lowered 50 cents per ton the end of April to $19.00. Scrap iron and steel prices at Chicago have also been weak. Steel casting foundries of the district report in creased shipments and production in April over the preceding month, the tonnage of the former item gaining 7 per cent and of the latter 6 per cent. New orders, however, fell off about 27 per cent. Activity in general was at a lower rate than for the same month of 1929, shipments declining 17 per cent in tonnage and production 19 per cent; orders booked showed a slight increase in the number of tons but a small decline in value. Shipments of malleable casting foundries were about the same in volume as a month previous, while production was 4 per cent smaller and new orders Y iy2 per cent less, all items being expressed in terms of tonnage. Activity remained considerably below the level of a year ago, orders booked totaling 44p£ per cent less, shipments 27 per cent, and production 32 per cent smaller. Stove and furnace manufacturers increased their shipments 12 per cent in April over March, but the volume was 10 per cent below last April; orders received declined 12 and 14 per cent in the respective comparisons; production was slightly less than in March and a little heavier than a year ago. w h o lesa le and — 11.4 62 60 — 5.1 — 1.3 + 5.8 — 6.9 62 62 60 60 r e t a il l u m b e r of + 1 1 .9 + 1 9 .5 + 7.7 + 29.1 + 10.8 A ccounts O utstanding A p r il 1930 Wholesale .................................. ......... Retail ............................................ .......... trad e •N um ber of A p r il 1930 F irm s P er Cen t C hange F rom A p r il 1929 I ncluded M arch 1930 Wholesale— Sales in Dollars..................... .............. Sales in Board Feet........... .............. Accounts Outstanding ....... .............. Retail— Sales in Dollars.................... .............. Accounts Outstanding ....... .............. R atio + 8.1 the preceding month and is the same as in April 1929. 121.3 257.8 — 37.9 — 28.5 — 29.9 14 12 12 — 14.0 + 3.6 203 183 D ollar S ales A prtt. 1929 M arch 1930 to 130.8 305.6 118.2 211.6 •Retail figures refer to number of yards. Page 5 F u r n it u r e Furniture manufacturers in the Seventh district have experienced so far this season a slower de cline than usual in orders booked from the peak month, January, and a retarded movement in ship ments. Continuing this trend, April shipments fell off 17 per cent from March against a three-year average decline of 14 per cent, although the decline of 11 per cent in orders booked was average for the month. Partly responsible for the falling off in shipments is the large volume of cancellations made this spring. Those for March were particu larly heavy, and the April figures show only a 10 per cent decrease therefrom. Unfilled orders, be cause of greater shipments than new orders and the heavy cancellations, declined 20 per cent. As com pared with last year, there were registered large recessions of 40, 30, and 58 per cent in orders booked, shipments, and unfilled orders, respectively, and a comparatively small decrease of 16 per cent in cancellations, April 1929 having been an unusu ally good month. The rate of operations sustained this April was 2 points lower than the 63 per cent of March, and compares with 74 per cent main tained a year ago. Building Material, Construction Work Seventh district lumber distribution showed a fair increase in April over March, but was still low for this season. Retailers stand in better position for the four months of this year than do whole salers, as their sales to the end of April were about 92 per cent of last year’s amount, while wholesale totals for the period averaged only 75 per cent in the same comparison. Producers in the northern states were affected by the retarded demand, orders and shipments for the 1930 period of members of two associations being about 70 per cent of the 1929 volume. Although production has been slowed up, this year’s volume amounted to more than 80 per cent of last year’s total to the end of April. Business of country yards is better sustained than in the larger centers, but uncertainty regarding crops and farmer income has been an adverse influ ence, just as insufficient credit and the over-built con dition are retarding activities in the cities. Distribution of cement for the first three months of the year in the five states including the Seventh district was only 4 per cent below the same three months of 1929, although March volume was 28 per cent less than in March 1929 but 14 per cent greater than for February 1930. Indications are that the increased shipments from month to month are largely for road work, other construction lines re maining inactive. The demand for brick continues smaller than in 1929, and curtailment is still in effect at some plants. Prices of materials remain steady at the low levels, the only change noted being a slight decline in brick prices at some cen ters. B u il d in g Building construction in the Seventh Federal Reserve district during April increased seasonally over March remaining, however, below the corre sponding month in 1929. Total contracts awarded amounted to $81,423,777, or 10 per cent greater than during the preceding month and 25 per cent below April last year. Of this total, $22,596,552 was for residential building which followed a similar trend, increasing 37 per cent over March and declining 57 per cent from the total of a year ago. Permits issued in 100 cities of the district regis tered an increase of 21 per cent in estimated cost over March, though totaling 61 per cent below last April. The number of permits issued similarly showed a gain of 12 per cent over the preceding month and was 43 per cent under April 1929. In the comparison with March, total permits issued in five large cities of the district—Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, and Des Moines — in creased 8 per cent in estimated cost, with Chicago and Milwaukee the only two cities reflecting a gain. This total was 66 per cent below the year ago figure, all five cities showing heavy declines. Merchandising Increased sales for April over March were gen eral in all reporting lines of wholesale trade except drugs, where a decline of one per cent was shown in the comparison; gains averaged 3 per cent in gro ceries, 2 per cent in hardware, 5 per cent in dry goods, 17y2 per cent in shoes, and 6 per cent in electrical supplies. As in the two preceding months, groceries continued to be the only line to record an increase in sales over the corresponding month of 1929, and was also the only group to show heav ier sales for the year through April as compared with the first four months of 1929, although the latter gain averaged less than one per cent; in both of these comparisons, however, the majority of gro cery firms had smaller sales. Business in the whole sale hardware trade aggregated 15 per cent less in D EP A R T M E N T ST O R E TR A D E IN A P R IL 1930 P er Cen t C hange A p r il 1930 F rom A pr il 1929 W H O L E SA L E TR A D E IN A P R IL 1930 P er C e n t C hange F rom S a m e M onth L ast Y ear C ommodity Groceries ........ Hardware ........ Dry Goods........ Drugs ............... Shoes ............... Electrical Sup plies --- ------- Page 6 Net Sales Stocks P er C en t C hange R atio of A p r il F our M onths C ollections 1930 F rom to A ccounts F our M onths O utstanding 1929 M arch 31 Ratio of Accts. Outstanding to Accts. Out standing Collections Net Sales L ocality N e t S ales 1930 + — + + + 7.3 4.2 4.7 5.4 5.1 + 4.9 — 12.6 + 10.5 + 6.7 — 7.5 — 8.0 — 16.5 — 4.7 — 0.6 — 5.6 32.5 39.6 39.0 46.9 34.9 34.8 45.4 41.3 49.7 37.7 + 3.8 — 0.1 — 8.9 37.1 4 0 .6 N et S ales + 2.8 — 20.9 — 17.8 — 5.7 — 5.1 — 14.1 — 5.8 — 5.9 + 0.6 — 17.1 — — — + — 10.0 10.7 12.0 1.0 4.3 — 4.2 — 13.8 — 16.3 — 6.3 — 20.1 4 87.2 218.2 323.6 151.3 266.1 Chicago .......... Detroit ........... Indianapolis .. Milwaukee .... Other Cities ... — 16.5 — 6.6 — 8.3 — 15.9 138.1 7th District..... C o n s t r u c t io n S tocks 'E nd of M onth 1929 the four months of 1930 than for the same period a year ago, dry goods sales were 22 per cent less, those of drugs 7 per cent, shoes 27 per cent, and electrical supplies 11^ per cent smaller. Stocks in general trend downward. Prices in most lines are lower. Easter trade at Seventh district department stores effected an increase of 23 per cent for April over March in the total volume of sales, and because of the later date of the holiday this year, for the first time in 1930 business was in excess of the corresponding month of 1929. For the year through April, however, sales aggregated 9 per cent under the same period last year. In this last comparison, Detroit continued to show the heaviest decline of the larger cities and was the only one of them to experience a smaller volume of April business than a year ago; sales in Milwaukee for the year to date have been less than one per cent below the first four months of 1929. Stocks changed little in the aver age for the district between the end of March and April 30, and were about the same as on the same date last year; the rate of turnover increased slight ly as compared with April a year ago but for the year through April averaged smaller than for the cumulative period in 1929. Total sales of twenty-six retail shoe dealers and the shoe sections of twenty-nine department stores gained 3 6 y per cent in April over March and ex ceeded those of the corresponding month last year by 21 per cent, but the aggregate for the four months of 1930 showed a decline of 5p£ per cent MONTHLY BUSINESS INDICES COMPUTED BY (Index numbers express a comparison of unit or unless otherwise indicated. W here figures or latest following month. Data refer to the Seventh Federal No. of Apr. Firm s 1930 Meat Packing— (U. S .)— Sales (in dollars).......................................... 64 109 Casting Foundries— Shipments: 92 Steel— In dollars ............................. IS 98 In tons .......................................... IS 72 Malleable— In dollars ............................. 23 103 In tons ................................. 23 Stoves and Furnaces— Shipments (in dollars)............................... Furniture— Orders (in dollars)........................................ Shipments (in dollars)............................... Electric Energy— Output of Plants (K W H )........ Industrial Sales (K W H ).......................... Flour— Production (in b b ls.)................................. Output of Butter by Creameries— Production ..................................................... Sales ......... ......................................................... Iron and Steel— P ig Iron Production:1 Illinois and Indiana............................... United States ...... ...... ............................... Steel Ingot Production— (U . S .) 1........... Unfilled orders U. S. Steel Corp.......... Automobile Production (U . S.) : Passenger cars .............................................. Trucks .............................................................. Stamp Tax Collections— 2 Sales or Transfers of Capital Stock.... Sales of Produce on Exchange—-Futures U. S. Primary Markets— 3 Grain R eceipts: Oats ............................................................. C o r n ......... ..... .............................................. W heat ......................................................... Grain Shipments: Oats .............................................................. Com ............... - ...... ................... ...... ........... 11 101 26 26 61 68 8 8 140 189 27 107 72 74 104 102 131 108 120 91 128 179 774 71 47 103 39 50 85 38 ‘Average daily production; 2F irst Illinois internal dollar volume for tl month shown are i Reserve D istrict un Mar. Apr. Mar. 1930 1929 1929 from the same period of 1929. Increases over the preceding month were common to all firms, and a large majority reported heavier sales than for last April, while in the comparison for the cumulative period of each year, only two retail dealers and less than half the department stores sold more shoes. Sales of furniture and house furnishings by dealers and department stores increased 20 per cent in the aggregate for April over that for March but were 19 per cent under the total for the same month a year ago; installment sales by dealers gained 41 y2 per cent in the month-to-month comparison and de clined 28 per cent from last April. In line with other phases of retail distribution, April sales of twenty-two chains operating 2,920 stores during the month, expanded over March. The aggregate volume sold gained 6 y per cent over the preceding month and was 11 per cent heavier than in April last year, while average sales per unit showed a similar increase in the month-to-month comparison but were iy 2 per cent smaller than a year ago. The number of stores operated, totaled about the same as in March and gained 13 per cent over last April. With the exception of drug chains, increased sales over the preceding month were gen eral ; as compared with the corresponding month of 1929, grocery, drug, five-and-ten-cent, cigar, shoe, men’s and women’s clothing chains had larger sales, and those of musical instrument and furniture chains totaled less. All groups except cigars and women’s clothing reported average sales per store as smaller than a year ago. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO No. of Firm s Wholesale Trade— Net Sales (in dollars) : 103 114 115 Groceries ................................................... 31 Hardware ................................................... 14 Dry Goods ................................................. 10 112 100 86 Drugs ............................................................ 14 92 120 109 Shoes ............................................................ 8 72 95 105 Retail Trade (Dept. Stores)— 102 142 135 Net Sales (in dollars) : Chicago ....................................................... 30 86 112 96 Detroit ...... 4 Indianapolis ................... 5 68 101 95 Milwaukee ................................................... 5 82 108 98 Other Cities ....................... 51 Seventh D istrict ...................................... 95 146 156 163 Freight Carloadings— (U . S .) — 189 183 199 Grain and Grain Products........................ Live Stock ..................................................... 97 87 87 Coal ................................................................... Coke .................................................................. 102 88 115 Forest Products ............................................ 92 95 99 Ore ..................................................................... Merchandise and Miscellaneous............. Total ............................................................ 129 148 147 Building Construction— 122 107 124 Contracts awarded (in dollars) : 146 124 143 Residential ................................................. 92 96 93 Total ............................................................ Perm its: 175 115 183 Chicago ..................................... Number 191 224 170 Cost...... Indianapolis ............................ Number 494 283 426 Cost...... 70 76 103 Des Moines ...............................Number Cost...... Detroit .......................... .............Number 41 43 45 Cost...... 104 95 71 Milwaukee .......... ...................... Number 78 50 47 Cost...... Others (4 5 ).................................Number 38 45 44 Cost...... 79 63 56 Fifty Cities ...............................Number 48 49 34 Cost...... revenue district; 8Monthly average receipts 1923-24-25 = 100. a base, Apr. 1930 Mar. 1930 Apr. 1929 Mar. 1929 97 84 70 103 90 94 82 66 103 73 96 106 85 109 94 92 97 88 115 127 112 162 103 117 104 119 89 125 90 95 91 96 104 168 98 110 99 115 116 167 109 107 107 122 85 74 78 85 80 39 107 95 86 70 80 84 81 24 103 92 79 82 86 102 97 85 116 105 91 72 86 105 95 30 112 100 77 119 56 108 181 158 120 157 18 24 55 33 59 36 63 35 24 73 93 70 60 40 17 17 57 37 47 81 45 40 75 66 62 44 56 32 70 91 71 59 69 53 104 89 110 129 137 139 111 102 54 75 59 88 45 29 77 91 74 107 83 89 74 83 i Page 7 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS (B y the Federal Reserve Board) N D U S T R IA L activity increased slightly in April from the rate prevailing in March. Factory employment declined by the usual seasonal amount, while factory payrolls showed a smaller reduction than usual. Wholesale prices con tinued to decline in April and the first half of May. There \yas a ftrrther easing of open-market money rates. I P roduction Index of manufactures and minerals combined, ad justed for seasonal variations (1923-25 average = 100). Index numbers of factory employment and payrolls, without adjustment for seasonal variations (1923-25 average = 100). Production in basic industries in April was slightly larger than in March and the Board’s index, which makes allowance for the usual seasonal changes, shows an increase of about 2 per cent, offsetting a large part of the decrease in March. Output of automobiles showed the usual seasonal expansion. Steel output declined seasonally in April and the early part of May. The output of silk textiles was considerably reduced, and woolen mills curtailed opera tions, though less than seasonally. Cotton mills were more active in April, and there was some increase in stocks. In the first half of May, however, a program of curtailment was instituted in the industry. In comparison with the first four months of 1929, a year of exceptionally active business, production was smaller in almost all major branches of industry, with the exception of tobacco. In comparison with 1928, however, output was larger in the automo bile, petroleum, and silk industries, slightly smaller in steel and coal, and considerably smaller in cotton and wool textiles, flour, meat packing, automobile tires, and lumber. Building contracts awarded during April, according to the F . W . Dodge Corporation, were 6 per cent larger than in March, reflecting further expansion in awards for public works and utilities, and some increase in residential con struction, largely seasonal in character. In the first two weeks in May, there was further increase in building activity. In comparison with 1929, awards in the first four months of the year were 17 per cent smaller, reflecting chiefly the continued small volume of residential building, which more than offset increases in public works and in utility construction. E mployment and P ayrolls Factory employment, which had been decreasing since last September, de clined by about one per cent in April, which represents the usual development for that month, while the reduction in factory payrolls from March to April was smaller than usual. D istribution Department store sales increased during the month by an amount estimated to be slightly larger than is accounted for by the late Easter holiday. The value of foreign trade decreased further in April, and for the first four months of the year, exports were about 20 per cent smaller than a year ago when trade was exceptionally active. In part this decline reflected the lower level of wholesale prices. W holesale P rices 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 Monthly averages of weekly figures for reporting member banks. Latest figures, averages of first two weeks in May 1930. An increase in wholesale prices in the first week in April was followed by a substantial decline, which continued into May and brought the level of prices to the lowest point in a number of years. Prices of important raw materials, such as wheat, cotton, and silk, declined during most of the period but steadied somewhat around the middle of May, while prices of silver, hides, and coffee were comparatively stable. There were fairly continuous price declines in steel, sugar, raw wool, and the textiles. Copper prices were reduced further early in May, but recovered somewhat following large pur chases for domestic and foreign consumption. B an k C redit 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 Monthly rates in the open market in New Y ork: commercial paper rate on 4- to 6-month paper; accept ance rate on 90-day bankers’ acceptances. Page 8 Loans and investments of member banks increased by about $160,000,000 in the latter half of April, but declined by $140,000,000 in the first two weeks in May, both movements reflecting chiefly fluctuations in loans on securities. In vestments increased further, while “all other” loans continued to decline, and on May 14, at $8,560,000,000, were the smallest in more than two years. The volume of reserve bank credit declined further by $125,000,000 between the weeks ending April 19 and May 17, largely as a result of the addition of about $65,000,000 to the stock of monetary gold and of a further substantial re duction in the volume of money in circulation, which reflected chiefly smaller volume of payrolls and declines in retail prices. The System’s holdings of bills declined, while United States securities and discounts for member banks showed little change. Money rates on all classes of paper declined further in May. The discount rate of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Y ork was reduced from 3 ^ to 3 per cent on May 2, and that at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston from 4 to V /2 per cent on May 8.
@FedFRASER