Full text of Business Conditions Digest : September 1966
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September 1966
DATA THROUGH AUGUST
Series ESI No. 66-9
New Features and Changes for This Issue ____________________________
Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis __________________________
Punch Card File of Business Cycle Series ____________________________
iii
iv
iv
Introduction __________________________________________________
Method of Presentation ________________________ . _________________
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points _______________________
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments ________________________
MCD Moving Averages _________________________________________
Analytical Measures of Current Change ____________________________
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns ____ ______________________________
Charts _______________________________________ ________________
How to Read Charts 1 and 2 ____________________________________
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
________________________
CHART L Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present _______________
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
____________________
8
10
24
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
38
39
42
46
3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods „_
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
_________________
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
_______________________
5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components _______________
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
CONTINUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
58
62
63
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
71
72
Series Finding Guide
75
11
65
66
67
70
[] A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 1, 2, 3, and £L on factory employment have
been revised throughout the report to reflect the source
agency's adoption of a new benchmark—March 1965.
2. Average changes and related measures have been
recomputed for series 1, 2, 3> and 41 to take into
account the revisions noted in item 1, above. (See
appendix C.)
3. Beginning with July 1966, data on net change in
bank loans to businesses (series 112) are obtained from
reports received by the Federal Reserve System from
weekly reporting large commercial banks. (Previously,
these data were obtained from weekly reporting member
banks.) Because of this change, June and July data for
this series are not comparable and therefore the change
from June to July cannot be computed. The net change
between July and August 1966 is computed on the new
reporting basis and is not comparable with earlier data.
More information on the change in coverage for this
series may be obtained from the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Financial Statistics Section.
4. Appendix F includes historical data for series 1,
2, 3, 41, Dl, and D£L.
The October issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on October 25.
111
Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.
A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.
IV
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
[>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
O
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
[>
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
D>
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5),—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
[>
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the. dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D, Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are nut
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for JMCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
"with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks,
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate seri£<v the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements maj^be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5, Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data,
(Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Broken Hne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indi
cates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVfe, 2, or
2V2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policyf and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg ....
2. Accession rate, manufacturing ........
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4 Temporary layoff all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus .......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
... .
11. New capital appropriations, mfg6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14 Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
16 Corporate profits after taxes6.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg ....
18 Profits per dol of sales mfg
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries6.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
-industries6 7
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories7
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inven-7
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer *
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled 7orders, durable
goods industries
23 Industrial materials prices*
Unit of
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space ..
Bil. dol
... .do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59-100..
do
Number
Mil. dol
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59-100..
Cents
1953 to Aug. '65 Aug. '65
to date
to date
1965
(with
(without (without
4
3
sign)
sign)
sign)5
Aug.
1966
July
1966
June
1966
0.0
r41-5
r5.1
513
1.1
74
41-3
r5.3
567
rl.3
125
r41.1
P4.4
542
pi. 2
115
P41.3
(NA)
P543
(NA)
100
0.5
4-6
1.8
8.8
17.1
0.3
5.3
3.8
6.4
18.5
185
186
230
196
7.5
+1.4
24.28
4.84
r24.59
r4.75
r24.l8
r5.06
P23.09
P4.72
5.0
3.8
4.2
2.1
3.1
+0.6
+1.1
61.96
5.77
p6.98
65.91
r5.57
63.07
p6.07
(NA)
(NA)
9.3
4.7
10.4
8.1
3.4
6.1
+2.7
+2.0
+6.1
1,287
96.9
107.6
16,603
92.41
r 1,261
84-2
107.6
16,641
111.23
rl,06l
r8l.3
105.9
16,688
62.84
pi, 037
pTl.3
(NA)
(NA)
161.75
7.2
3.7
6.8
2.5
18.7
12.3
8.7
5.8
0.9
2.1 ,
35.6
38
38
42
50
48.7
r!06.0
9.3
rl06.5
r!06.5
p!06.^
85.84
80.65
9.8
-0.5
+3.9
+0.2 +10.5
+1.7 -18.2
-2.1 -68.9
+0.5
June
to
July
1966
July
to
Aug.
1966
-0.5 +0.5
-17.0 (NA)
-4-4 +0.2
(NA)
+7.7
+8.0 +13.0
-23.7 +14-8
-1.7 -4.5
+1.3
-6.7
-1.9
+6.5
-0.5
+6.4
-3.5
-4.3
+9.0
(NA)
(NA)
-2.0
-2.0 -15.9
-2.3
-3.2 -13.1
-3.4 -12.3
0.0
0.0
-1.6 (NA)
(NA)
-0.1 +0.2
+0.3
-11.5 -20.4 +43.5 -157.4
0.0 -10.5 -19.0
-1.7
5.6
0.6
6.0
3.4
0.5
3.8
+3.4
+0.2
-0.3
4-2
1.5
+0.5
2.5
2.4
-0.5
2.3
2.2
+1.2
(NA)
3.6
3.0
(NA)
1.5
13.1
May
to
June
1966
+0.5
0.0
+0.4
-0.8
-0.3
-6.0
+0.3
-1.1
-4.7
(NA)
1.3
-0.1
+0.6
-3.3
(NA)
percent
1941-43=10...
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
+12.3
do
+17.1
iH-16.0
pfll.3
do
+3.4
r+4.0
p+0.7
Percent ....
52
54
60
61
6.5
6.9
+0.6
+3.8
+11.1
+1.7
do
70
72
73
73
5.3
2.0
+1.3
+2.9
+1.4
0.0
75
69
70
73
7.5
5.9
+1.3
-8.0
+1.4
+4.3
+1.36
118.3
r+1.70
118.4
r+1.16
118.8
p+0.42
111.7
0.48
1.3
0.35
1.5
r 63, 983 r 64, 089 p64,229
70,180
69,928
69,759
4.0
3.9
3.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4
... do...
Bil. dol
1957-59=100..
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thous
do....
42. Total nonagricultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent
do
40. Unemployment rate, married males . . .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
do
46. Help-wanted advertising
1957-59=100 ..
47. Industrial production
do..
6
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
49 GNP in current
dollars6
6
do
57. Final sales
do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
do
52 Personal income
53- Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59-100..
May
1966
Current percent change2
86.78
r63,517
69,155
4.0
1.8
86.06
+0.01 +0.34
-0.54 -0.74
-0.6
+0.3
-0.2
+0.1
0.4
0.4
2.9
4.7
+0.4
+0.3
+1.1
+2.0
+0.7
+0.9
0.0
-5.6
+0.2
+0.2
+2.5
-5.3
+0.3
+0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-14.3
+1.1
+0.6
+1.6
+0.6
-1.0
+0.9
+0.9
+1.5
0.0
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
+1.7
184
r!56.5
186
r!57.4
p!89
P158.3
4.2
3.0
1.0
4.0
185
155.2
3.5
0.9
+1.9
+0.8
1.3
2.2
2.0
+1.3
+2.2
+2.0
3,348,1 3,377.1 3,508.5 p3,473.8
r580.0
P585.0
573.0
577.2
154-0
155.3
P156.8
155-4
24,475 r25,394 r 25, 491 p25,883
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.9
0.9
0.8
1.5
+1.2
+0.7
+0.8
+0.8
+0.9
+0.7
+3.8
+3-9
+0.5
+0.1
+0.4
0.2
0.2
+0.2
+0.2
+0.3
643.5
732.3
720.0
104.8
105.0
r!05.3
P105-3
-0.5
+0.8
+o;8
0.0
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 7966
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
May
1966
June
1966
July
1966
Aug.
1966
1953 to Aug. '65 Aug. '65
to date to date
1965
(with
(without (without
signp sign) *
sign)5
Current percent change2
May
to
June
1966
June
to
July
1966
July
to
Aug.
1966
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor 6cast per dollar of real corporate
GNP
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs/ inventories of
66. Consumer install ment debt
67. Bank rates
on short-term business
loans*8
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59-100..
60.10
99-7
r99.2
r99.4
.. .do
Bil. dol
rl08.4
71.1
r71.9
P72.9
.... do.
Mil. dol
24.1
70,131
r24.1
70,680
P24-5
71,244
3-2
0.6
4.0
0.5
+4.0
+0.1
-6! 5
+0.2
+2.5
+0.3
(NA)
0.8
0.5
1.0
0.9
+1.0
+0.9
+1.1
+1.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.9
+0.8
+0.9
0.0
+0.8
+1.7
+0.8
(NA)
(NA)
2.0
5.2
+5-2
+4.9
4-4
3.9
4-3
11.0
10.8
22.2
+2.2 -11.6
+0.9 +31.9
-2.1 +61.9
+20.8
-16.3
-58..0
-6.1
-17.6
-16.7
-42.9
(NA)
ra6l.60
P99.7
.
5.82
Percent ....
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83 Federal cash receipts from public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95- Balance, 6Federal
income and product
account 7
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
91 Defense Dept obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U.S
99. New orders, defense
products
93. Free reserves*7
85 Change in money supply 7
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
98. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits .
110 Total private borrowing 6
d0 . .
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Ill Corporate gross savings 76
112 Change business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do.
113 Change consumer installment debt 7. . .
114 Treasury bill rate*
Percent
do
115 Treasury bond yields *
tlo
116 Corporate bond yields*
117* Municipal bond yields*
... do
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance677
89- U.S. balance of payments
a Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
81 Consumer prices
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.
do
Mil. dol
do
do
153.8
137.8
-16.0
135-9
181.8
+45-9
r+3.8
1,588
p2,588
1,477
(NA)
2.5
27.4
2.1
27.6
+2.1
+3.9
5,447
2,945
2.91
-352
p6,9l6
3,675
r3.68
-352
4,998
4,694
r3.43
r-362
(NA)
(NA)
p3.00
p-398
13.9
24.5
22.5
98
11.7
14-9
13-9
46
+0.7 +27.0 -27.7
+6.4 +24.8 +27.7
-6.8
+1.9 +26.5
-10
0.0
-22
-11.28
+11.28
-10.56
p-3.48
3.11
11.73
-1.08
+11.52
+0.36
p+4.80
2.52
pi 64. 2
P152.1
p-12.1
pi 54- 2
P125.4
p-28.8
P68,344
P58,416
6.64
11.5
4-3
7.6
1.9
+63.0
-0.41 f-22.56 -21.84 +7.08
-0.50 KL2.60 -11.16
(NA)
+0.18
+7.0
+2.6
+2.5
+4.8
+1.4
+l.l
+4.0
+4-3
+2.1
+0.9
-1.0
+5.1
+2.2
+4-3
+76.7 -117.3
+1.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+0.1
0.0
+1.6
+0.6
(NA)
+0.6
+19-69
+6.59
4-54
4.63
5.67
3.77
(NA)
+6.77
4.86
4-75
5.81
3-95
P+3.49
(NA)
4-93
4-80
6.04
4*12
1.39
0.87
6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
5.17
0.74
2.7
1.4
2.2
2.9
-0.17 +8.76
-0.10 +0.67
+2.1
-2.2
+1.1 +1.3
+2.2
+2.2
+2.0
+3.3
6.32
2,36^.4
2,070.2
+294.2
6.45
2,485-8
2,114.9
+370.9
6.51
2,460.4
2,206.8
+253.6
6.58
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.1
3.8
3.0
58.4
1.6
3.9
2.8
92.1
+1.6
+0.6
+1.6
-20.5
341
492
275
787
+126
-139
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
0.3
3.1
1.9
6.4
+0.3
+0.6
+1.9
+6.4
r-157
r-186
1957-59=100 . .
do
Bil. dol
do
112.8
156
69.61
113.0
147
r71.31
p21.89
113.1
147
r72.47
113.8
(NA)
P72.89
+4.44
+4-3
+1.9
+10.93
+5.92
4-64
4-57
5-55
3.65
do- . '. . .
...... do
(NA)
(NA)
-12.5
-36
+0.2
-5.8
+2.4
+7.6
(NA)
(NA)
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as'rises(see series 3,4, 5,14,15, 40, 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 foi other "change" qualifications.
^his average is based on month-tomonth
(or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle monU of quartet.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in8 plus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, father than in percent.
Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
2. Accession rate, mfd. (per 100 employees)
30.
Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per IOQ employees
inverted scale)
4. Temp, layoff, all Indus, (thous.-inverted ji
1966
bed
bed
CHART
SEPTEMBER 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Con^tr. contracts, com. and (ndus. (mil. sq.ft. of
floor area. MCD moving avg.-6 term)
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.) .
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol,)
I
7.
29.
Private nonfarm housing starts (dnn. rate, mill
h ew Sbldg. permits, private housing
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
38.
Index of net bpsiness formation (1957-59=1
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
14. Liab, of bus. failures (mil, dol.. -
,-
ijnverted scale. MJCD moving ovg,~6 term)
; .--...---;
.-•---
- . . -;^==^----
- • •• :-•
-
15. targe bus. failures (no. per wk,i iverted scale. MCD movina ava.-
:,._•
.-.,
j
1966
bed
bed
SEPTEMBER 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
profih^nter taxeW Q (anftrratei
17. Ratio, price to _ujnil labor
corporate, all industries, Q [pejcent]
i
w no
i,u K)
|I^K
itWii'i ikiyybiiJLJLJyi!!] iJu
m:iu]
ll dJ'vrii
jL ©
S)V^L^J
U
1
^-ii
uA'cyb
iifiltl^
U TI^I^
CHART
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER
1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
EsO
+ 20
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
21. Change in bus. inventories, oil indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. do I.
+ 10
0
I 31
0.
Change iK book lvalue, mfa.. and
J;
trade inventories (ann. |rater bil. dot. !
-10
+ 20
Change in book value, m
material? and supplies (<jnrt
MCD moving avg,—6 term)
37.-Purchased mater als^pertent reporting higher inventories
•
~
!
•
26, Buying policy, irod. ml s., percent reporting commitments 60 Jays or onger
32. Vendor performanc^, percent reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfillec orders, dur. goods indi)s. (bil
i
-MCD moving^avg. i i ~ \
23-^rtdustrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
]
I
bed
SEPTEMBER
1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
POL)
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions)
nonagri. employment (miltions)
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale)
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State
i (percent-inverted scale)
L
elp-kanted adyertisi
j
CHART
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Production
!
47. Industrial production (ind^x: 1957-59=100)
50.
GNP in 1958 dollars, 0 (onn. rate, bil. dot.)
I 49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.
57.
Final sales, 0 (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
1966
bed
bed
SfPTEMBER. 1966
CHART
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
ijyyUijyyyyuyyyuyybMi
in
iJUUU
JUUUUI
17
CHART
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER J966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bit. do!.)
62. (Labor cpst per unit of (jutput, rrtfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
!
..
.
i.
...
-^*
.i
...—
J1
.
'•• ..
-
-'
68. Labor co$t per dol. of r£al corp^ GNP, Q (indexi 1957-59=100)
|j
|;
j;
•
J-. 64. Book_vali|e of mfrs,' inventories ;(bil. dol.)
^i
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (btl. doll)
I. . .
IL
J .... J
_
I
ji
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
i . . . . . . ==.
^:L . _-,.
^—
67. Bank rates on short-term^ bus. Irians, Q (percent)
. .....
L
bed
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
receiptifr|>rrY^tfMfc~(
|
|95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income <ind
llUUIl!
$
i!» UK
"ni^¥iodli^" fEU" ra~B
19
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER
1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
85.
!
_.._
-.
Change In money supply (ann. rate, percent,
MCD movInq avq.-^jer'mlL , 1 _
__
Change in=money supplyuird t i m e d e p o s i
>ving ayg.—6
term)
|!
.
I1
__
\
,'t
3
-S2
3
~
—-T—T- V^^V
'r
umer instalbe[Lnebt)[(ann. rote, biLJdol.)
!
'|"
j
'
J
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
h5
L
4
r 3
H 4
r 3
ULJ^ULIJ. 5
ii i i diui iiiiijy yyLuMuiyyyy':
if Hi—{l~"'ii ""Ir^ni'"!'" 1—«"" i—5—rHr^'
LijyyyyEiiiiyyyiiByl" • _
1^1
H»
fliii
111!..-l^t': 1i^j
H«
1111
21
CHART
BAS|c
DATA
SEPTEMBER
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
General imports
moving
Merchandise trade balance
89J; U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)
r 81. Consumer prices index: !957-59=100)
i
,
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 195^-59=10(1 ,
I
97. Hack tog of cap. (Appropriations, mfg., Q (bil.
1966
bed
beef
CHART
SEPTEMBER 1 966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
120
280
260
240 „
220 ~
200 •§
180
160
128. Ja|>an (indisx: 1957-59=100)
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
free/
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Hours)
Revised3
40 .4
40.2
4.0.4
40.2
40.4
4,0.5
40.5
4,0.4
4,0.6
40.7
40.5
40.6
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.7
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.9
40.6
40.7
40.9
41.2
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
30. Nonagricul- 3, Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
3 9
3 7
3.9
3 8
/ n
3 Q
3-9
3.8
/.I
L.Q
L. 0
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs1
(Thdus.)
(Thous.)
6. Value of man- 24. Value of manufacturers' new ufacturers' new
orders, durable
orders, machinery
goods industries and equipment
industries
(Bil. do!.)
(Bit. dol.)
Revised^
3
Revised
3.8
3.8
3.8
4 1
3 8
3 8
3 9
3 8
3 9
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
552
554
555
557
6/6
5/6
541
5/3
663
2 0
19
1 Q
1 9i
1 Q
18
18
18
1 Q
152
310
18.47
121"
301
2&8
293
288
284
281
?QO
ptjc
18.23
18 78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18 28
18 06
ift?/
18 62
18 11
17 97
107
138
Q6
92
131
130
108
18
18
17
"1 36
63/
632
623
6??
i £
116
?ft/
1 Q
1 A
1 7
1?6
QA
270
~]Q 7/
1Q 60
977
T Q 9A
266
262
121
118
91
121
92
89
109
267
260
2/A
61 /
18
17
18
1Q
16
17
122
111
20 46
529
20 02
21 25
19 3/
19.91
19.62
19 /6
20 72
?y3
248
676
633
525
518
623
607
618
13/
97
3.9
A.O
A.O
A.I
6 3?
1 6
6py
16
/ o
522
1 6
7Q
}-\
549
528
1 /
12/
110
282
276
301
245
249
262
251
19 94
3.25
3.21
3.22
3 35
3 yp
3 29
3 33
3 31
3 y2
3 //
3 27
3.61
3 62
3
q
3
3
3
3
3
/I
yA
61
93
92
77
77
3.69
3.79
3 88
3 92
1965
January
February
March
April
May..
...
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41.1
41.2
41.3
41.0
41.2
41.0
41.0
41.1
41.0
41.2
41.4
41.3
41.4
41.5
41.5
41.5
El 41. 5
41-3
41.1
p/1.3
I 3
/ n
t i
/ ,/
/ n
1 1
636
cqq
1 6
6/fl
6y i
l/
1 6
1 i r\
1 1 pi
1
1U
i y
l»4
1 1 "7
11 /
l p|O
1U<;
0^7
rtQO
2J7
224
224
231
248
218
y 3
•/. 6
y 6
6*37
-|
629
6/7
1 /
1 ?
rt /
04
/ Q
6yy
-| i")r\
/ g
OT O
212
£ / 0
1 3
1 >
125
206
i n^
lOb
0*2
V3
219
563
K.
J.. 4
/ Q-
67D
12
y Q
(vTtAnn
1 0
6.2
6&Q
cpo
A. 8
e2»i
j.
fn^6 ^
r>y y
(NAT
CT Q
12
1 9
,771-1
-|
>l-5
:>o /
C/r7
ry O
544
_r / o
pP4->
IO
nl 0
pl.*i
\f W
^ Af l ;^
'D
«4
rty
209
OOO
22<
100
074
125
T ftO
Io2
[H1179
185
-, &f
186
115
1 T /-
230
-1
1 o^L
rtrt
luu
196
on 07
21 1 3
pi 71
3 96
3 ftO
22.20
21.51
22.16
22.42
22.39
23.40
y 02
4.08
4.07
4.09
4-35
4.16
4.15
4.25
4-32
4.58
23.58
23.74
[H] 24«89
24.20
24.28
r24.59
r24«18
p23 . 09
4-45
4.58
4-59
4.79
4.84
r4.75
Eir5.06
P4-72
22.04
20.99
21.31
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,4,5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; (ip", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and-"NA", not available.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
January • . • •
February
March
April...
May
, *
Jung
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1965
January
February
March . .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
(Bil.doL)
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
; . ..
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings
.
11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing
corporations 1
(Bil. dot.)
3.84
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45.43
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56
51.07
51.05
48. 41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
4.38
4.14
4.11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
53.20
58.12
54.04
64.26
56.13
55.28
55.90
49.60
63.48
60.49
60.33
64.36
4.72
4.67
4.84
4.98
5.02
4.81
5.16
4.90
5.15
5.13
5.05
5.35
60.04
67.48
69.09
0371.63
61.96
65.91
63.07
(MA)
5.44
5.49
5.66
5.91
5-77
r5-57
[Hlp6.07
(NA)
2.80
3.30
3.72
4.10
4-39
4-81
5.00
4.52
5.00
5.79
5.85
6.32
6.36
m]p6.98
]Ann. rate,
thous.)
1,285
1,438
1,486
1,652
1,676
1,550
1,574
1,522
1,676
1,706
1,592
1,522
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(1957-59400)
(1957-59-100)
(Number)
(Mil. dot.)
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
©52.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
103.1
16,250
16,018
15,992
16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
91.69
119.29
110.67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49
17,275
17,367
17,112
16,504
16,043
16,671
16,369
16,957
17,138
16,744
17,418
16,999
84.54
107.57
146 . 29
79.51
139.09
135.66
120.64
128.98
108.56
85.67
66.65
128.06
17,677
[317,868
17,305
17,022
16,603
16,641
16,688
(NA)
111.67
94.59
98.73
106.93
92.41
111.23
62.84
161.75
-111,753
1,706
1,571
1,506
1,496
1,593
1,475
1,489
1,422
1,495
1,480
1,575
116.8
©124.6
1,417
1,468
1,465
1,532
1,501
1,539
1,447
1,409
1,436
1,380
1,531
1,735
112.3
108.2
109.9
106.2
109.7
114.0
105.0
106,8
106.4
106.4
105.3
104.6
105.3
.105.9
1,585
1,349
1,538
1,481
1,287
rl,26l
rl,06l
pi, 037
110.7
105.6
111.9
104.6
96.9
84.2
r8l,3
P71.3
108.7
OH109.6
109.2
108.4
107.6
107.6
105.9
(NA)
121.7
113.6
112.9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109.1 '
110.8
105.4
109.9
108.9
108.4
104.1
109.8
112.9
146.46
98.9
100.2
100.5
99.2
99.6
100.0
100.7
101.7
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8
102.8
102.9
103.7
105.3
103.9
104.0
103.6
104.8
106.6
105.8
106.8
107.5
107.6
106.1
105.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tnose that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by '[HJ ; for series that move counter to movements in general-business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by »rjT>X Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
25
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
16. Corporate
15. Number of
business failures profits after taxes
with liabilities 1
$100,000 and over
(Number per
week)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *•
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Ann. rate,
bil.dbl.)
AQ
A3
42
40
51
38
3Q
/?
A3
/I
32.8
33.5
34-9
38 o
3ft
//
39
/o
/?
39 1
/o
/?
AO
35
40
42
33
47
47
39
45
43
35
40
/g
37
36
36
37
38
38
42
50
(1957-59=100)
(Cents)
22. Ratio of profits 19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
to income originating, corporate, stocks*
all industries
(Percent)
(1941-43=10)
100.1
100.5
100,8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100.9
101.0
101.5
100.8
300.8
101 6
101 9
101 3
8 1
10.8
8 %
11.3
8 6
11.3
ft ft
11.7
9 n
•. •
65 06
65 92
65.67
68.76
70 14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72 62
74 17
76 45
77.39
78 80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96
•.•
T O O
• . *
101 9
38-5
39
44
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
99.7
31.1
42
38
38
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
101 7
100.8
101.2
101 6
100.8
8
Q
. * .
T O O
...
n
9 .u
199
••i
...
100 6
39.0
A3 8
43.8
// 1
A6 3
48 7
[H]48 7
101.8
102.6
102.8
102.6
103.3
103.0
103.3
103.9
104.9
104.4
103.6
104,9
105.3
106.0
105.6
106.0
106.8
105.9
r!06.0
rl06.5
r!06.5
[H}pl06.9
8
7
ion
Q
ft
1
n
lj>-5 .U
86 12
86.75
86.83
87.97
89.28
85 04
84.91
86 49
89 38
91 39
92 15
...
Q
3
• >*
"I O Q
i-i.y
•.*
1
T O O
j-<c.y
...
...
9
Q
£>
TO
•Jo
."3j
91 73
• •*
21. Change in
business inventories
after valuation adjustment, all industries
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
+4.7
+A.8
+6.0
+8.1
...
1 Q
£
+.2O
• • .
• * *
4
J &
5
-r4«
...
4.^
A
+J»Q
• •*
4-7
T / \ 4I
4-Q
^
t^o
...
+7 6
...
i e> 7
...
4-1 n /
...
5393 3?
fHlQ Q
9 • -Pq
. **
iTJlT 0 Q
LJUJ-.P o
9? 69
• ••
88 88
91 60
86 78
ftA nA
T Q 1
QZ
3
4-ft Q
nT^i? 3
QJ
80 65
79 ^/
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by El; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are <(indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; 'V1, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
H3gh value (32) was reachea in February 1962.
2
Average for September 16, 19, and 20.
Digitized for 26
FRASER
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964 .
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
JulyAugust
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+5.1
+2.3
+3.7
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
+14.6
+11.2
+5.0
+13.8
+8.7
+9.4
+6.1
+11.6
+8.1
+3.4
+8.2
+10.2
+16.2
2
(NA)
+13.3
+12.5
+12.1
!BM7.1
r+16.0
p+n . ^
(MA)
20. Change in
37. Purchased
book value of man- materials, percent
ufacturers' inven- reporting higher
inventories
tories of materials
and supplies x
(Percent
reporting)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+0.6
+0.4
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60. days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
{Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59400)
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
42
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
+1.0
+0.4
+2.5
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
+0.7
+1.4
+3.1
+0.9
+1.0
+2.0
60
61
57
61
60
58
57
60
58
45
50
48
65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
72
66
72
70
66
62
64
62
60
66
72
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
+0.84
+0.50
+0.58
+0.38
+0.32
+1.24
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
110.6
110.7
113.2
116.7
116.9
115.3
114.6
115.2
114. -8
115.0
115.5
117.1
+0.9
+1.2
+0.8
+3'. 8
+3.4
48
46
53
51
52
54
60
68
67
68
69
70
72
73
{ED 73
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
+1.49
+1.36
[E]r+1.70
r+1.16
p+0,42
120.5
122.9
El 23. 5
121.5
118.3
118.4
[HJ61
74
85
[«J86
82
75
69
70
73
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
-1.9
-0.5
0.0
r+4.0
p+0.7
(NA)
95 5
95 1
94 4
94 5
QS ?
93 9
94.2
94 2
94.1
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0 33
-0.58
-0.54
-0 05
+0.38
+0 10
0 09
-0 40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
%
->
<57 3
97 7
"118.8
3
111.7
109.0
"-
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (§; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 03. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
Because of the adoption of a new sample for the wholesale trade component, data beginning with January 1966 are not comparable with data for the earlier period.
3
Average for September 16, 19, and 20.
2
27
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
43. Unemployment
41. Number of em- 42. Total nonagricultural employ- rate, total
ployees in nonagricultural estab- ment, labor force
survey
lishments
Year and month
(Thous.)
Revised*
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
J U |y
August
September
October
November
December
(Thous.)
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
5.7
(1957-59=100)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
in newspapers
unemployment rate,
State programs 1
3.7
4-8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4-2
4.1
55,966
56,079
56,228
56,445
56,594
56,644
56,761
56,836
56,983
57,168
57,157
57,303
63,086
63,219
63,462
63,716
63,579
63,791
63,974
64,089
64,306
64,245
64,347
64,399
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5-5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
57,336
57,676
57,800
57,942
58,061
58,211
58,369
58,521
58,747
58,649
59,118
59,387
64,621
65,084
65,208
65,765
65,774
65,472
65,581
65,682
65,697
65,730
66,133
66,426
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.4
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.6
59,489
59,777
60,072
60,152
60,363
60,623
60,841
61,021
61,180
61,437
61,864
62,241
66,719
66,718
66,895
66,919
66,947
67,434
67,979
67,815
67,879
68,010
68,641
68,955
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
3.3'
3.3
3.2
3.1
69,286
69,079
.69,072
69,317
69,155
69,759
69,928
070,180
4.0
3.7
3.8
03.7
4.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
©1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
e!07
e!09
e!08
109
105
104
109
.
105
107
4.1
4.1
4.1
111
112
118
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
116
117
118
120
118
121
3.6
3.5
124
47. Index of industrial production
(1957-59400)
119-8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
123
126
127
134
137
127.9
128.4
129.3
130.8
131.8
132.0
133.3
134.0
134.0
131.6
135.4
138.1
137
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186
138.6
139.2
140.7
140.9
141.6
1-42.7
144.2
144.5
143.5
145.1
146.4
148.7
184
191
150.2
151.9
153.4
153.8
155.2
rl56.5
r!57.4
[HJ pi 58. 3
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
1966
January
February
March
April
»
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
62,469
62,811
63,247
63,350
63,517 '
63,983
64,089
[H]p64,299
A.O
3.9
3.9
IE 2.1
2.4
2.4
[3201
189
185
184
186
pl89
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 03; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by CEO. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
28
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
Mav
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
Julv
August
September
October
November.
December
1965
January
M arc h
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
50. Gross
49. Gross
57. Final sales
national product national product (series 49 minus
in 1958 dollars in current
series 21)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
541.2
577.4
• ••
546.0
584.2
554-7
...
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
572.7
.. .
•
579.4
594-7
588.8
• •*
562.1
• ••
...
...
...
605.8
597.7
569.7
616.8
613.3
578.1
627.7
623.5
585.0
637.9
634.4
587.2
644.2
636.8
600.3
660 8
651 4
607.8
672.9
665.3
618.2
686.5
677.8
631.2
704.4
694.0
640.5
721.2
712.3
EE3643.5
[EJ732.3
[3720.0
...
51. Bank debits, 52. Personal
all SMSA's ex- income
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
2,416.2
2,345.9
2,357.2
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
2,472.5
2,419.2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2
457.6
455.7
457.6
458.4
461.2
464.2
465.6
467.8
470.0
473-4
474.9
479.1
2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597.3
2,693-8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59400)
120.7
122.2
123.0 "
123.5
123-5
124.6
125-3
125.7
126.8
20,319
20,226
20,374
20,292
20,178
20,517
20,634
20,581
20,489
20,774
20,727
20,952
101.1.
482.3
483.8
486.1
489.3
492.6
494.1
497.3
500.8
502.7
503.5
506.8
512.1
126.2
127.8
128.7
129.8
130.0
130.8
131.7
133.0
134-0
132.7
134.7
136.9
21,023
21,408
21,305
21,442
21,701
21,797
21,862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21,690
22,766
101.1
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
101.7
2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3,249.6
516.7
517 1
520 1
522.5
528.0
532.2
535-4
537.8
552.5
547.2
553.2
558.2
137.0
138,5
139.3
138.5
140.0
141.0
141.3
142.4
142.7
144.2
146.5
147.8
22,936
23,262
22,856
22,849
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
24,194
24,647
24,816
101.7
101.9
102.1
102.2
102.3
102.6
102.6
102.8
102.9
102.8
103.2
103.1
3,198.1
3,263.9
3,397.1
3,390.1
3,348.1
3,377.1
E3,508.5
p3 » 473 • 8
560.2
564.7
569.0
570.5
573.0
57712'
r580.0
JH]p585.0
149-3
151.1
152.6
153.2
154.0
155.3
155-4
Epl56.8
25,023
25,263
25,536
24,949
24,475
r25,394
r25,491
£!p25,883
103-4
103.8
104.0
104.3
104.8
105.0
r!05.3
[JHipl05.3
f
!05.3
120.0
119.9
120.6
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by dD. Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NAYnot available.
'•Week ended September 13-
29
TABLE
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59400)
68. Index of labor 64. Book value of
cost per dollar of manufacturers'
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
(Bil. dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt
(Mil. dol.)
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Percent)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
• ••
36.95
100.6
100.2
99.7
41.20
.••
99.5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
• ••
42.55
• ••
• ••
4-3.50
99.3
99.1
99.7
99.3
99.3
••
38.05
• ••
40.00
104.2
.• .
...
104-0
.. *
••.
103.7
...
104.1
...
4-5.65
•• .
4-7.75
49.00
50.35
52.75
55.35
58.00
060.10 '
ra6l.60
98.7
99,1
98.7
99.4
99.3
99.0
98.1
98.9
99.5
98.6
98.6
97.8
98.7
98.9
98.5
99.6
99.7
r99.2
r99.4
P99.7
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
.20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,655
51,207
51,631
52,194
52,648
53,202
104.5
...
...
105.6
...
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
62.4
62.9
21.6
21.6
21.5
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.2
53,689
54,259
54,865
55,333
55,907
56,375
56,911
57,410
58,004
58,475
58,836
59,454
104.5
...
...
105.3
...
...
105.3
...
...
105.4
•• .
63.2
63.4
63.7
64.0
64.3
64.6
65.4
65.8
66.3
66.6
67.2
68.0
22.4
22.4
22.5
22.3
22.4
22.3
22.5
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.9
23-1
60,069
60,666
61,308
62,053
62,709
63,304
64,028
64,684
65,370
65,990
66,689
67,323
68.6
69.0
69.6
70.3
71.1
r71.9
Sp72.9
(NA)
23.5
23.6
23.8
23.8
24.1
r24.1
Ep24.5
(NA)
103.8
...
...
104.2
100.0
99.7
99.5
100.3
©101.2
99.5
98.9
57.9
58.0
58.1
•• .
106.8
EDrl08.4
21.2
21.4
21.4
67,920
68,458
69,107
69,638
70,131
70,680
071 , 244
(NA)
...
5.00
...
...
5.01
...
...
5.01
...
...
5.00
...
4.99
•..
»*•
4.99
•*.
• •*
4.98
...
*.•
5.00
...
...
4-97
...
4.99
...
...
5.00
...
5-27
5.55
GH5.82
a63.55
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated.by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by ©; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
30
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1963
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. don
January
February
March
April
Mav
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, '
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
112. A
109.6
116.5
113.8
116.7
115.7
120.2
121.6
119.7
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
(Ann. .rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
5
119.3
117.2
107.3
108.5
109.1
108.1
114.1
112.8
113.7
117.3
113.4
115.3
115.4
118.7
-5.1
-1.1
-7.4
-5.7
-2.6
-2.9
-6.5
-4.3
-6.3
-6.8
-3.9
+1.5
126.5
119.7
121.0
122.4
118.9
116.5
122.2
121.0
117.3
118.4
112.9
126.6
115-1
119.6
116.3
121.1
108.4
113.5
114.7
112.4
113.7
115.7
115.4
115.1
-11.4
122.0
122.2
117.8
125.6
129.3
133.9
119.5
128.8
136.9
12 A. 3
146.3
126.6
110.9
117.6
128.2
144.4
118.1
129.3
116.1
125.0
126.6
113.6
129.6
125.0
-11.1
-4.6
+10.4
+18.8
-11.2
-4.6
-3.4
-3.3
-10.3
-10.7
-16.7
-1.6
146.9
142.5
153.5
139.4
153.8
135.9
pl64. 2
pi 54. 2
124.3
137.1
142.8
155.2
137.8
181.8
p!52.1
p!25.4
-22.6
-5.4
-10.7
+15. B
-16.0
+45.9
p-12.1
p-28.8
122.1
-0.1
-4.7
-1.3
-10.5
-3.0
-7.5
-8.6
-3.6
-2.7
+2.5
-11.5
92. Military prime
91. Defense
90. Defense
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal Department obliga- Department obliga- contract awards to
U.S. business firms
income and product tions, procurement tions, total
account
(Ann. rate ,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
...
-2.4
...
...
+1.8
...
...
+1.2
...
...
+2.1
...
-1.9
...
...
-6.7
...
...
-3.0
...
...
-0.5
...
+4-5
...
+4-4
...
...
-2.5
• *•
. *.
-0.2
...
+2.3
r+3.8
1,586
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
4,632
2,198
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079.
1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,"237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,149
2,689
1,598
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1,005
700
1,355
1,444
1,402
1,254
1,128
1,741
1,732
1,733
1,212
1,882
4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
4,520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896
5,669
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,915
1,521
1,420
1,947
2,299
1,588
P2,588
1,477
5,100
5,179
5,879
6,444
5,447
p6,9l6
4,998
(NA)
2,712
2,596
2,357
3,466
2,945
3,675
4,694
(NA)
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
TABLE
BASIC DATA
bed
SEPTEMBER 1966
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
Year and month
(Bil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
2.89
2.09
August
September
October
November
December
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
JU|y
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
93. Free reserves* 85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+209
+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
+106
3.40
-/,/,
-107
-246
'-268
-352
-352
3-38
3.30
2.91
r3.68
r3 . 43
p3.00
-
+91
+94
+33
2.37
2.44
2.46
3-24
2.46
2.58
2.62
2.81
3.45
3.28
2.57
2.53
3 QA
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Mil. dol.)
'
+36
-75
-105
-180
-182
-174
-134
-144
-146
-83
-2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
+4.08
+4.92
+1.56
+4.08
+3.24
+3-96
+6.36
+2.40
+2.40
+5.52
+7.08
-0.84
+8.76
+8.76
+7.20
+7.68
+6.24
*7.08
+9.00
+8.88
+6.48
+8.76
+11.04
+4.56
+3.96
+1.56
+2.40
+3.12
0.00
+7.80
+8.52
+3.84
+8.40
+4.56
+2.28
+4-56
+8.16
+5.88
+4.44
+5.76
+4-92
+9.72
+8.76
+9.12
+9.48
+8.52
+8.04
+8.88
+2.28
-2.28
+4.56
+6.00
-8.16
+13.44
+5.16
, +1.44
+11.76
+9.48
+0.72
+12.36
+10.44
+7.92
+6.96
+9.00
0,00
+12.60
+9.72
+10.80
+12.24
+12.96
+7.80
+12.36
+7.20
-2 88
+8.52
+13 . 44
-11.28
r-362 •
p-398
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
+11.28
-10.56
n-3 /8
+7.68
+1.56
+7.56
+14.64
-1.08
+11.52
+0.36 "
p+4.80
110. Total private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
•..
43,104
42,668
51,516
43,74B
51,040
45,428
53,876
45,312
47,236
50,036
+1.43
+1.42
+1.85
+2.40
+2.35
+1.74
+1.97
+2.04
+2.08
+4.66
+5.22
+5.78
+1.79
+3.48
+1.42
+3.17
+4.25
+3.89
+4.31
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+B.62
50,900
64,660
.
52,672
51,996
58,408
51,264
63,216
55,596
68,640
54,448
60,880
55,156
70,208
56,328
66,736
57,508
p68 344
p58,4l6
+12.35
+13.14
+12.47
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10.00
+5.53
+4'. 00
+5.33
+0.32
+10.84
-
+14.23
+7.21
+8.87
+6.60
+10.93
+19.69
C 1 )'
n+3,/9
;. .
I
•
i
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•Because of a change in coverage, data beginning with July 1966 are not comparable with data for the earlier period.
32
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
113. Net change in 114. Treasury bill
consumer install- rate*
ment debt
Year and month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
; ay
June
^
JU1V
August
September . .
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March • • •
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December.
1966
January..
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
.
(Percent)
2.91
(Percent)
+5.82
+5.94
+5 72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6 91
+6.62
+5.09
+6.76
+5.45
+6.65
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3-38
3.45
3.52
3-52
3.89
3-92
3 93
3 '-97
3.97
4.00
4 01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14
+5.84.
+6.84
+7.27
+5.62
+6.89
+5.62
+6.4,3
+5.99
+7.13
+5.65
+4.33
+7.42
3-53
3-53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3-51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86
+7.38
+7 16
+7 7n
+8.94
+7.87
+7.14
+8.69
+7.87
+8 . 23
+7.44
+8.39
+7.61
3.83
(NA)
(Percent)
(Percent)
4
4
4
/
/
4
22
25
28
35
36
32
(Percent)
3.10
3.15
5.52
5.48
1.0*5
5 LI
3.10
3.11
3.21
5.46
5.45
(Mil. dol.)
987.3
2
1
1
1
122.1
Q6Q 1
915.5
896 8
4 34
4.40
4.37
4.42
4 49
3 22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27
5.45
6 A5
5.45
5.45
5.45
5*45
5.45
1 791.1
1 8/1 1
1 905.3
1 985.5
1,954.2
1,955.8
4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4-13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
4,50
4.39
4 45
4 48
4 48
4 50
4 44
4.44
4.49
4.49
4 48
4.49
3-22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3*18
3.13
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5-45
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
2,039.6
2 057.8
2,075.2
2,061.0
2,047.3
2,076.5
2,118.6
2,099.8
2,261.0
2,156.4
2,206.2
2,426.1
L Lc
L L%
3.06
1 /Q
-3.
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.. 03
4.08
4.36
4.14
4 16
/ 1%
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4.34
4.43
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.57
4.66
4.71
4.70
4.75
4.92
3.15
3.17
3.24
3.27
3.24
3.35
3-40
3.46
3.54
5.45
5/5
5/1
5.45
5.45
5.44
5.44
5.45
5.46
5.49
5.51
5.62
1,214.6
1 598,8
2 7*i/ 8
2,379.6
2,260.2
2,230.2
2,255.5
2,332.9
2,324vl
2,341.6
2,408.2
2,355.8
4.60
4.67
4.63
4;6l
4.64
4.54
4.86
4-93
/..A3
4.6l
4.63
4.55
4.^7
4.63
4-75
4.80
4-93
5.09
5.33
5.38
5.55
5.67
5.81 "
6.04
3.52
3-64
3.72
3.56
3-65
5.70
2 248 6
2.334.8
2,594-4
2,331.2
2,364.4
2,485.8
2,460.4
(NA) ''
3.Q-3
^ Q/
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+6.37
+5,92
+6.59
+6.77
86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total
115. Treasury bond 116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
yields*
/ 3/
"3 OQ
1g
3.77
3.95
4-12
(NA)
6.00
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6.51
6.58
2 105,4
•
numbers
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tnose that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series num
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
33
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
87.. General im- 88. Merchandise
ports, total
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
1963
January*
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November .*..,...
December
(Mil.doL)
(Mil.doL)
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1*442.9
1,454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8
-112.6
+611.7
+484.4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499.7
+490.6
+627.6
1,418.1
1,458.8
1/518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514-0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,741.1
1,853.5
1,864.6
1,884.6
1,951.9
1,892.4
+21.9
+893-8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+514.4
+479.1
+459.5
+457.0
+456.3
+463.4
1,935.5
1,992.9
2,072.7
2,138.2
2,070.2
2,114.9
2,206.8
+313.1
+341.9
+521,7
+193.0
+294.2
+370.9
+253.6
89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of construction conments (-) in U.S. balanceof payments sumer prices
tracts, value
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
(Mil.doL)
-1,218
-1,081
-1,114
...
-871
0
-200
-138
-92
...
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.2846.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53. U
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
62.53
111.0
111.7
112.1
112.6
112.8
113.0
113.1
113-8
152
157
158
161
156
147
147
(NA)
63.80
65.11
66.76
68.25
.69.61
r71.31
r72.47
p72.89
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing!
(Bil. dol.)
...
8.88
...
9.38
...
10.05
11.02
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-248
-144
...
-552
-326
-617
-231
-1,381
-845
. . .'
12.08
...
13.23
14^54
u!97
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(NA)
-0.8
(NA)
-697
+226
-534
r-332
r-556
r-157
...
-618
i+239
r+232
-1,158
r-246
r-186
is!66
...
17!o5
is!l7(
19^48
20 ".34
p2l!89
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not avaifable.
1
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery. These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
34
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
1963
47, United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
(1957-59=
100)
January
February
March
April
May
, ay
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
.*
June
Juiv . .
August
September
October
November. . . ....
December
1965
January
February
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
128
128
129
131
132
132
133
134
134
132
135
138
133
134
133
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
123
123
123
139
1A2
"I ?Q
1/1
141
142
(1957-59=
100)
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
135
136
136
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
139
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
130
1 ?9
1 ?3
1/1
1 1^
142
142
143
IVi
143
145
146
149
149
151
153
150
152
153
154
155
156
153
155
156
r!56
r!56
p!56
(NA)
131
130
133
131
130
p!28
(NA)
r!57
p!58
125. West
European coun- Germany, index
tries, index of of industrial
industrial
production
production
111
128
129
128
130
129
128
130
130
131
144
144
12LOECD, 1
144
147
148
'
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
(1957-59=
100)
129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139
142
144
145
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
145
1 /S
1 J1
145
146
146
146
146
148
149
149
150
156
"I 66
150
150
152
152
151
p!52
(NA)
156
155
160
160
157
158
p!58
1 /Q
154
154
155
151
153
155
156
154
154
(NA)
127. Italy, index 128. Jaoan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
158
179
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
184
184
191
190
191
172
169
173
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
219
224
224
226
228
233
232
232
239
241
237
242
139
142
144
144
144
147
148
150
166
169
166
169
175
176
178
176
178
179
184
183
r245
r238
r245
r242
r236
r246
r242
r240
r245
r242
r244
r247
146
149
r!51
185
185
188
150
150
153
rl89
195
(MA)
256
252
256
260
r260
r267
p272
(NA)
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
140
139
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
142
142
138
137
139
1 ?Q
140
(NA)
'
203
202
207
211
214
217
i
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a11, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 inc/usfries
Capital appropriations—7 7 industries
Profits—700 companies
Sfock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of stores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—7 9 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
jj«
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
„,„««,,M bed
P>4
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
May
1966
June
1966
.
Nov.
1948
Aug.
1966
July
1966
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
5
5
1
3
6
3
6
l
3
4
3
5
3
.
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
24
12
24
25
5
3
1
1
3
1
2
1
1
3
"i
3
4
2
4
2
3
16
19
24
12
15
9
1
5
1
2
"4
24
16
2
1
2
, 3
24
0
24
0
1
2
"i
X
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
1
2
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
3
1
7
1
7
1
1
7
11
64
11
64
11
64
"3
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date ...........
2
6
11
• 55
1
1
2
1
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1957
"i
"i
i
3
2
3
3
3
"i
**2
4
3
11
27
n
n
36
27
3
1
3
4
11
0
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
1
2
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
Jan.
1953
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
..
4
13
2
. .
.
4
"i
"2
2
5
1
2
1
1
2
**4
20
5
21
5
21
"i
2
13
2
i
2
1
2
3
9
1
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
"5
2
"3
24
0
24
0
^0
15
2
21
33
18
"l
2
i
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
•, .
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
"i
1
1
"i
2
6
"5
4
**3
3
2
11
55
11
36
11
18
1
1
'i
**i
"i
5
3
5
11
45
11
45
"4
2
"i
4
2
1
3
6
**4
"i
4
3
11
55
11
36
11
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
4 series were not available,
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
X
38
bed
SEPTEMBER 1966
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
9-mo. span
1-mo. span
Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 indus.
D6. Nev^: orders, dur. goods inqus.-36 indus.
L
. ..... ! ..
'• !._..
. _.. I . _.
l! ..
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations*
j—17 indus.J: NIC& |
|
pan, !*--—1-6 span);
!
!
D34J Profits, FNCB If NY, pjercent reporting
L,.-=._ _JLblgHer profits-lTCN^ col...(KCL sjjpn)
I
D19. Stock prices, 5QO common stocks-80 indus.
I i
is ! ,i
..Li J .1.1 u.J-1
'
L_JJ__
ji
j!
D23. Industrial materials prkes-13 indus. mils.
—-—*-'
^^rr'"^~
i i
I I
al claims, State unempl. insur,-47 arfas (inverted)
j-
—I—
I
-
T~
' V \
i/uiiliyliilljlJ jlllJil
^iM]yy!lil)[UJyij[fLyylliJ[fllji.llii.i!i IDIiLdLlij
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
D4L Employees in nonagr
(6-mp. span —
1-mo. span
7. Industrial prj>duction-24 Indus
(6-mo. spanj—
1-mo. spah
, mfrd. goods-23 inilus
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1966
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
035,036 (July 1966)
D48 (June 1966)
D61 (May 1966)
ilUL
lAiMUiU^^
Actual
2d Q 1965-2d Q 1966
3d Q 1964-3d Q 1965
4th Q 1965-lst Q 1966
Anticipated
4th Q 1965-4th Q 1966
3d Q 1965-3d Q 1966
2d Q 1966-3d Q 1966
:iiUyuyyiiy.jjMiM
41
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
Year and month
1-month span
Revised*
1983
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July.
August
September
October
November
December
.
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
4
NICB (17 industries)*
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
Revised3
73.8
40.5
52.4
14-3
83.3
66,7
61.9
45-2
71.4
50.0
33.3
64*3
,59.5
42.9
90.5
69.0
81.0
78.6
71.4
69.0
57.1
61.9
57.1
78.6
63.9
43.1
54-2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
47
...
53
...
*59
*53
...
...
65
•..
...
76
0.0
85.7
47.6
78.6
31.0
31.0
69.0
73.8
14.3
61.9
69.0
90.5
69.0
52.4
61.9
81.0
50.0
85.7
78,6
92.9
85.7
88.1
95-2
57.1
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54-2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
53
...
61.9
57.1
76.2
19.0
81.0
28.6
52.4
59.5
40.5
71.4
81.0
54.8
83.3
81.0
78.6
61.9
47.6
54.8
71.4
6^.3
81,0
95.2
92.9
83.3
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
76.4
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
81.9
86.1
83.3
57.1
69.0
40.5
50.0
50.0
33.3
19.0
p66.7
83.3
76.2
33.3
P31.0
30.6
50.0
84.7
75.0
r75.0
r66.7
p72.2
...
53
*..
65
...
...
*56
53
...
...
32
76
...
...
71
44
•..
.• .
59
•«•
...
1965
January
February
March
April
May....;..:;::;;
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May..;:;.;;;;;;;
June.
July
August
September
October
November
December
u.7
50.0
76
...
*•.
71
*•.
...
53
*59
65
65
...
...
76
...
*82
*71
P76
P47
r51-4
r£L.7
P54-2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of theW 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and NA", not available.
1
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery. These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 196l.
(See NICB publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
*
8
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
bed
SEPTEMBER
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1966
TABIE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (80 industries)*
1-month span
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1963
January
February
March
Anril
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June ............
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
50
*59
*56
55
57
• ••
*60
.*•
*57
• ••
56
...
•.•
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46,2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89-4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44-7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
44-7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89-4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70*2
74-5
89-4
60.6
61.7
89-4
61.7
70,2
74.5
72.3
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
67.5
70.1
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
53.8
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
95.7
74.0
48.7
14-3
63.6
3.9
23.4
38.3
6.5
51.9
43.5
37.7
22.1
61.5
76.9
46.2
30.8
42.3
46.2
61.5
26.9
3
7.7
53-8
61.5
61.5
53.8
3
23.1
38.3
44.7
83.0
53.2
45.7
57.4
17.0
72.3
91.5
74.5
44-7
68.1
1965
January
March
April
May
i *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
Itey
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
55
*59
55
*60
••.
57
.
*62
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on thelst month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available,
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for September 16, 19, and 20.
43
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
Revised2
Revised2
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
1-month .span
6-month span
65.0
41-7
73.3
75-0
76.7
56.7
73.3
53.3
55.0
73.3
45.0
66.7
60.0
66.7
68.3
65.0
68.3
68.3
66.7
51.7
55.0
53.3
65.0
70.0
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85, '4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83-3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41-3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82*6
45-0
75-0
73.3
68.3
65.0
73.3
63.3
65.0
83.3
6X.7
86.7
73.3
68.3
70.0
73.3
83.3
78.3
76.7
76.7
93.3
91.7
80.0
91-7
91.7
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9
79-2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54.3
78.3
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
73.3
70.0
86.7
63.3
63.3
88.3
88.3
70.0
71.7
88.3
93.3
86.7
81.7
78.3
80.0
80.0
81.7
75-0
88.3
91.7
93.3
90.0
95.0
93.3
66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
52.1
75.0
83.3
91.7
83-3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
100.0
63.0
69.6
30.4
54-3
87.0
43-5
80.4
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
37.0
80.4
87.0
87.0
73-9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
95.7
91.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60-.9
71.7
73.9
87.0
89.1
85.0
85.0
91.7
73.3
76.7
91.7
58.3
p6l.7
95.0
91.7
86.7
81.7
P75-0
70.8
79,2
85.4
66.7 '
62.5
r91.7
r50.0
P75.0
95.8
91.7
r87.5
83.3
P75.0
71.7
69.6
60.9
43-5
30.4
r95.7
r52.2
P60.9
82.6
r84.8
82.6
p69.6
63.0
80.4
71.7
73.9
71.7
r73.9
r-78.3
,P50.0
89.1
96.7
89.1
95.7
P91.3
•i
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, fi-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown.
The^ V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
44
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1966
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1965
January
February
Marcn
April
May
, *
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
;...
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000).
*76
"so
"77
*76
73.7
78.9
• ••
+39
*74
'so
*76
*76
57*9
68!i
+44
*82
'si
*82
"so
78.9
78.9
+4
*••
"si
*85
*82
"si
6s!i
73.7
-60
*83
*87
"si
• ••
84
8^.2
68!i
r-5"
...
• ••
*82
"86
"si
"si
73.7
9il?
+41
*83
* •.
*87
"si
*si
52^6
89^5
+47
*si
88
"si
*85
52.*6
89.5
+47
*90
"ss
'90
*si
63*2
8^.2
.. *
+24
88
"ss
"si
(NA)
si! 2
+22
• ••
90
*••
*89
*87
73.7
...
+28
*91
88
*90
89^5
+18
91
"89
8^.2
P+5
88
*S3
• •*
88
• ••
• •*
88
*89
...
Actual
Anticipated
40.6
50.0
65*6
75.0
75.0
...
71.9
71.9
75.0
.••
. . •*
71.9
50.0
.*•
62.5
5C)!o
84.4
75.0
96*9
6s!s
.. •
56.2
• *.
65.6
...
75.0
68*8
87* 5
65^6
81.2
84*i
81.2
62.5
(NA)
71.9
**.
7l!9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require
no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
May
June1*
July
Aug?
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery . . . ,
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries . . .
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
41.0
r41.1
r41.0
41-2
41.4
41.5
r41.5
41.3
r41.1
41.3
1-42.3
40.5
41.3
r41.8
42.4
r41-9
42.1
40.7
r41-4
r4l.9
42.1
r41.9
r42.0
r40.6
r4l.l
r42.0
41.8
r41.7
r42.4
41.1
41.5
x-41.9
r4l.6
r42.2
r42.4
r41.2
41.7
42.2
r41.2
r42.3
r42.2
41-3
41.6
42.1
r41-8
42.4
42.4
r41.4
r42.0
41.8
42.2
42-4
42,1
40,5
41'8
41.9
42.0
42-3
r42.8
r40.6
r40.9
r41.6
r4l-7
r42.1
42.7
40.7
41.3
42.0
42.2
42.2
r43.0
r40.7
r42.4
41-3
r39.8
r42.8
40.8
r42.5
rU-4
40.0
r43-2
r40.7
r42,l
r4l.6
r39.9
43.5
41.0
r42.8
r41.8
40.0
43.7
r41.2
r42.9
41.7
40.2
43.7
41-4
43.4
r42.0
40.0
43.8
r41.3
42.2
r42.4
r40.3
43.8
41.2
42.3
42.0
40.1
r43.4
r40.9
r42.2
r41.6
39.7
43.7
40.9
42.5
42.0
40.0
r41-3
r37.9
r4l.5
r36.4
r43.0
41.1
r37.7
41.8
36.2
r43.0
r40.8
r38.1
r41-8
r36.1
43.0
r41.1
37.7
41.8
36.4
r43.3
41.1
r37.9
41.9
36.5
r43.7
41.139.2
41.9
r36.4
43.7
40.9
38.5
r42.2
36.5
43.7
41.0
38.0
42.2
36.5
43.4
r41.3
r37.7
r41.8
r36.3
43.4
41.1
38.3
41.9
36.2
43.3
38.6
41.6
r42.2
r41.9
r38.0
38.6
41.8
r42.5
r42.0
37.9
r38.7
r42.1
r42.5
r41.7
r38.3
r38.5
41.9
42.5
42.3
r38.5
38.6
42.0
42.4
r42.4
38.6
r38.9
r42.3
42.6
r42.4
r39.0
r38.7
r41.9
42.5
42.1
39.0
39.0
42.0
42.5
38.9
r4l.9
r42.5
r41.6
38.3
39.0
41.9
41.7
41.6
38.3
u.7
38.7
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
22,195
Primary metals,
3,493
Blast furnaces, steel mills . .
1,851
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
2,058
Metal cans, barrels, and drums .
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
'
Machinery, except electrical
3,140
Steam engines and turbines*
\
149
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
603
Metalworking machinery *
242
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
248
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
22,163
22,425
22,389
24A97
24,276
24,593
3,119
1,465
2,908
1,276
3,148
1,451
3,392
1,635
3,905
2,037
4,305
2,331
A, 109
2,173
r4,091
p2,281
3,749
1,974
2,013
2,050
2,213
2,206
2,237
2,163
p2,179
(NA)
3,318 '
3,315
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
(NA)
3,349
3,396
3,538
3,553
3,609
p3,404
(NA)
283
242
157
232
335
254
329
P256
(NA)
596
309
620
229
675
279
660
277
610
309
705
263
617
297
p632
P243
(NA)
(NA)
250
248
259
258
303
251
251
P252
(NA)
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
p=preliminary
r = revised
1
r 24, 179 23,090
21,509
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA=Not available.
bed
SEPTEMBER
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Q3
|
|
|
|
j
^
f
f
i | ! 1 1f { f f f
19
67
71
-
+
+
+
+
QO
>*>
j
1966
f
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and-accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
81
55
+
-
57
+
+
0
+
0
+
0
-
-
+
O O O
40
50
0
0
-
+
+
+
-
50
33
0
-
+
f
_
+
- -
-
+
+
O O -
+
- -
0
+
0
-
0
0
-
+
+
O
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
O
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
O
-
+
+
-
-
+
O
-
+
O O O
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
0
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
0
0
C
+
+
+
-
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
51 42
54
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
0
0
+
-
+
0
76
+
-
+
56
--
+
0
-
00
+
+
+
+
-0
+
+
+
+
+
0 - +
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
0
-
+
+
+
0
+
+
0
0
+
+
+
-
+
+
- -
+
+
O
+
+
O O
31
-
0 -
-
33
+
+
+
+
76
O
+
- -
+
83
+
+
+
-
83
+
+
-
+
-I-
93
+
-
O-
64 81 95
+
+
-0
+
0
•
•
69
+
0 - -
+
0
-
+
-
0
O
0
-
-
-
-
-
00
-
-O-
0--
+
- -
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
31
50
85
42
50
+
-
92 83 81 82 86
83 75
75 67
72
.
Fabricated metal products:
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Construction mining and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
+
+
_
+
-
+
+
-
+
0--
_--
+
+
+
-0-
+
+
--
-
+
+
-
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
.
+
-
-
-0
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
„
+
f
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- -
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
..
.
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
SEPTEMBER 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Apr.
Nov.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES*- Continued
Electrical machinery
3,099 3,000
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
690
|
672
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
752
655
Communication equipment
3,487 P3,690
(NA)
2,995
2,983
3,201
3,612
3,466
622
653
655
731
844
783
p785
(NA)
733
577
699
888
672
742
p874
(NA)
6,853
6,920
5,972
6,561
6,488
Flprtrnni'r rnmnonpnti
Othpr plprtrtpfll msrhinprv/^t
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts . .
6,363
,
..
Mntnr wphirlp jK^prohlv/ nnpratinn^
Pnrcinlptp airrrflft . . . .
. ..
6,141
6,902 r6,584 P5,773
*
..
^hinhni IHino nnt\ rfiilmfirl Pfininmpnt -xHthpf trflncnnrt JiHnn pniiinmpnt
Instruments total
Lumber, total
Furniture total •
^tnnp rlau anri D!JK<I tfttfll
Dthpr rinrahlp 0nnH<t tntal
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
Index: 1957-59 = 100
in. 6
115.2
114-8
115.0
115.5
118.3
121.5
118.4
118.8
111.7
109.0
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd,)
Cotton (Ib,), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib )
;
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RET AIL STORES2
(23 retail store components) •
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.418
.075
35.677
1.867
.150
.145
.304
.212
1.695
.164
11.919
.260
.080
.466
-444
.072
.074
31 -.4-69 29.918
1.930
1.911
.H9
.148
.303
.211
1.712
.150
.160
.302
.211
1.743
.497
.071
29.872
1.874
.506
.070
33.188
1.748
.150 ,
-149
.158
.156
.301
.299
.210
.210
1.702
1.747
.186
.162
.167
.167
11.581 11.523 11.488 11.512
.238
.250
.234
.254
.072
.074
.074
.074
.620
.082
31.479
1.770
.586
.075
30.384
1,678
.462
.623
.465
.629
.072
.075
.074
.075
31.556 34.264 30.173 29.792
1.501
1.611 1.619 1.570
.150
.152
.151
.151
.156
.161
.162
.144
.222
.292
.222
.291
.2Ci8
.218
.209
.217
1.740
1.791
1.794 1.824
.190
.236
.207
.212
.227
.214
11-341 11.103 11.100 11.022 11.012 10.916
.228
.239
.239
.239
.235
.234
.071
.072
.072
.075
.073
.074
.151
.169
.291
.215
1.787
.151
.163
.291
. .217
1.811
Millions of dollars
23,585
5,078
23,753
24,194
24,647
24,949
24,475
5,076
5,097
5,271
5,235
5,467
5,431
r25,394 r25,491 P25,883
r5,472 p5,46l
(NA)
1,812
1,936
219
443
1,807
1,961
211
448
1,814
1,982
223
452
1,825
1,978
220
459
1,810
2,087
235
469
1,924
2,099
224
453
1,910
2,113
216
467
(NA)
rl,967 p2,023
(NA)
r2,214 p2,206
219
P234 - (NA)
P478
(NA)
r487
268
271
278
276
280
279
283
23,668
r295
P294
(MA)
NOTE: Qata are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA =Not available.
p ^preliminary.
r=revised
Average for September 16, 19, and.20,
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments"
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
48
bed
TABIE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
1965
9-month spans
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
8 ® g - g S ' 5 . £ - i i j ' J ? g <s>^ Q —» U _ S < r « s —) . * * 5
i
6
i
j
b
i
?
^
-
g
^
«
5
S - S S 5 i £ s < s ^ ^
D6, VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, totat
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total .
; . .
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (Ib )
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb)
Burlap (yd.)
-
+
_
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
-_
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
__
+
-
+
-
+
+
_
+
+
_
- +
_
+
+
+
+
- _ _
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
_-
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
4+
+
+
--
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
_
+
62
62
77
46
31
42
46
-
-
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_ _
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ -+ +
- - _
-
_
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+
-
+
S
+
+
35
1^
+
+
--
5
+
-
+
«
62
27
+
- +
+
+
-
8
--
+
+
+
+
+
OJ
™ J- & § -Is
g "S
^
LL- -^
<
=
.-?
-^
£
^
no
•£.
«L
1 1 5 £ 8
< E
---
-
+
«
Q
+ _
-
--
i-
5
=
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
. +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
-
-
+
+
f
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+ ' +
+
+
46
+
46
+
46
+
46
+
QO
<t
£
g
g
-z.
o
+
+
38 54 54 62 62 54
+
+ + + +
+
---
H
"g^
23
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Pflttnn (\h \ 1*i marl/of auor^no
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib)
_
_
_ ' 4 - -
+
+
_
+
+
+
4+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
0
+
+
-
^
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
---
+
4
+
+
Rncin nflfl Ih ^
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
Percent rising
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) - .
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
78
37
72
70
6l
-
-
44
+
-
30
96
52
0
61
+
+
-
96
+
+
4-
+
96 91 83
85 83
_
+
«.
+
+
+
_
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
--
+
+
•+
+
+
+
0
-
+
+
+
. - -
+
0-
+
+
-+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
- 4 -
•'•Average for September 16, 19, and 20.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
70
+
+
+
+
+
• +
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
'+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(-
+
+
+
+
" +
+
+
•1-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 = rising; o¥= unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
91 96 96
+
+
+
+
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
SEPTEMBER 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
May
Juner
July p
Aug.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
".
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
510
500
508
535
566
579
578
583
591
(NA)
211
722
334
782
234
208
706
353
' 768
234
213
716
389
765
237
220
749
380
775
246
227
756
366
819
255
223
741
379
797
237
232
734
372
752
238
241
746
397
769
237
233
771
422
764
245
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,491
252
1,831
775
527
4,402
4,398
258
1,820
779
513
260
1,827
794
530
4,345
269
1,843
816
531
4,509
267
1,860
818
543
4,302
278
1,927
843
564
4,017
271
1,920
831
560
4,479
292
1,927
848
572
4,470
305
1,944
858
554
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July r
Aug. p
> :::
Oct r
Novr
1966
1966
1965
Dec r
Janr
Febr
Apr r
May r
June r
63,517
118
546
379
516
1,070
1,046
1,299
1,308
1,351
273
355
1,154
73
850
1,257
519
648
564
113
396
319
628
3,238
4,132
3,445
9,719
63,983
120
550
381
515
1,086
1,048
1,312
1,327
1,358
276
355
1,166
74
854
1,268
525
654
578
115
403
316
632
.3,300
4,143
3,470
9,747
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
,
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products . . ,
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining . ;
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade . . . ,
t
61,437
61,864
62,241
100
535
359
507
1,052
997
1,234
1,177
1,267
253
344
101
542
362
509
1,043
1,015
1,250
1,195
1,284
255
349
100
549
367
516
1,044
1,020
1,256
1,216
1,290
258
357
1,155
72
830
1,214
502
628
547
113
373
308
1,182
72
835
1,220
506
633
551
113
379
310
1,163
73
838
1,229
509
633
553
113
384
311
633
3,334
4,083
3,378
9,563
627
3,186
4,071
3,354
9,455
631
3,234
4,080
3,367
9,513
NOTE; Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
50
62,469
106
557
370
525
1,051
1,029
1,262
1,233
1,296
261
343
1,163
73
842
1,204
512
639
555
113
386
313
635
3,318
4,091
3,391
9,618
62,811
110
556
372
520
1,055
1,039
1,274
1,260
1,323
266
348
1,169
73
843
1,231
514
641
558
•113
387
315
634
3,323
4,105
3,404
9,641
NA= Not available
63,350
114
554
374
521
1,066
1,049
1,284
1,297
1,344
270
353
1,163
74
847
1,239
518
647
559
113
395
319
595
3,333
4,1H
3,434
9,694
p = preliminary
r = revised
64,089 64,299
123
123
543
544
381
379
517
514
1,090 1,107
1,044 1,055
1,334 1,335
1,327 1,352
1,374
1,311
276
275
350
351
1,161
1,173
70
73
852
854
1,238 1,247
530
527
659
655
583
579
116
115
407
403
310
314
633
634
3,289 3,246
4,121 4,107
3,477 3,477
9,775 9,777
bed SEPTE«B«
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change— Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
s
! !S
o
0
0
O
2=
.0
1 <cS.
£
c
TO
—\
i
£
s
TO
0-
S
<C
13
_^>
QO
11
T
5
<
1 1t
2*
—»
—1
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
|
u_
s
«
^
H-
a.
<*
&
S
+
+
1TO
S
-Si
1*-
S5
-
£L
<c
>?
£
=
-:
^5"i
S" *J
>^
1 -7
tM
3,
tfcO
,5
T>
O
=?
<c
t/7
CD
2:
+
+
+
i-
+
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
0
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
-
-
+
+ +
—
•—
+
•-
+
-
+
+
+
+
o
+
0
+
>: :
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
4-
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
. .
Fabricated metal products ................... ......
+
+
+
+
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
0
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
0
0
o
+
+
+
0
+
Rubber and plastic products
Mining
..*
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Reta i 1 trade »
••
-i
£
+
+
+
+
0
.. . .
TO
—i
«_
a.
<C
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
f
+
f
+
f-
+
+
i-
+
+
+
+
f
+
P § =>
o
<£1 z
00
6-month spans
1966
1965
a,
>-,
c
TO =
S
T
TO o.
2E
<C
-^
DO
^ 5
. -ig ^s
n
E
+
+
+
0
+
+
0
+
+
-
+
+
+
o
+
+
0
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
0
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
3
i
i
?
)*.»
TO
1-
+
93 87 85 85 92 73 77 92 58 62
+ + + + +
+
+
+ + + + o
+ + +
+ + +
+
+ + +
+
+ + + + +
+
+ - + - +
Machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
"Sa
•s
U.
+
+
I..K,
o
2=
JS
+
0
+
June-Dec
o
0
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
«
+
f
+
1966
1965
J-
+
1-month spans
0
+
+
0
+
0
+
+
I..I..
+
+
+
+
_
*
5
-g
i£
00
5
?
=
1
IE
95
93
90
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+'
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ • +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
1<
1 £
92 87 82 75
92
-
95 93
>>
•
+
+
+
+
Dec-June
Women's apparel accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewel ry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+
+ +
+ . o
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+
i+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
SEPTEMBER 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
May
Apr.
June
July
AugP
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
r3,04l
r9,226
2,386
r7,849
r3,045
r9,2S2
2,400
r7,920
r3,049
r9,329
r2,397
r7,983
r3,0*52
r9,363
r2,423
r8,0!2
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing ......... *
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
*
r3,051
r9,410
2,451
r8,070
r3,068
r9,484
2,501
r8,204
r3,076
r9,515
r2,523
r8,239
r3,090
r9,549
2,571
r8,314
r3,094
r9,604
r2,601
r8,356
3,100
9,633
2,634
8,405
Index: 1957-59 = 100
H5.1
146.4
148.7
150.2
151-9
153.8
155.2
r!56.5
r!57.4
158.3
123.7
150.9
119. *4
153.6
126.5
156.3
130! 8
157.0
133! 6
160.7
142! 3
161.4
r!46.5
rl62.3
rl47.' 5
rl62.2
r!49!5
rl6l.5
150
161
165 is
166.2
155.0
158.0
166 .'9
168.4
157.3
159.0
169.2
172.8
160.7
162.2
171.9
177.6
163.1
166.0
174*. 4
179.8
163.2
169.4
174*. 5
183.6
166.0
174.6
rl77l 7
184.5
rl65.8
176.4
rl8o!2
186.5
rl67.1
176.5
rlS3.7
188.0
rl65.6
176.3
134! 4
118.3
135! 5
119.1
137.6
125-4
139! 4
125.6
Ul*4
126.5
142.0
130.7
r!4o!3
122.7
ria!s
rl22.9
r!39.9
p!20.0
189
194
163
177
132
140
(NA)
159 ".7
150.4
162! 6
153.0
164'. 3
155.5
165.4
151.2
166^8
155.3
169 '.6
156.4
rl73'.8
r!59.5
r-174.6
159.3
rl69.9
r!57.9
174
159
137.7
145.7
109.3
139.4
147.2
110.1
140.3
148.5
113.9
140.1
146.9
111.7
140.7
148.3
110.1
I4l'. 7
149.7
114.7
rl43! 4
r!49.9
rl!2.1
r!44-4
P151-9
pll4-4
143.6
131.1
147 .'4
133.2
147.7
134.2
148.4
135.7
148! 5
138.2
150.' 2
138.4
177 !l
124.0
175-5
178.5
126.1
181.6
180.6
127.8
181.3
181.9
130.5
184-6
184.3
125-5
183.3
188 !l
127.7
188.2
r!53'.0
142.1
178.9
r!90.9
127.4
(NA)
r!54.1
144.1
rlSO.l
rl92.6
rl27.7
(NA)
123.6
114.5
125.0
118.9
125-3
117.1
126.0
119.6
127.0
126.7
127. 5
115.8
126.2
117.9
r!27.1
p!22.7
pl55!7
r!44-5
181.7
P195.6
P126.3
(NA)
rl28.3
p!28.8
(NA)
116.8
114.0
115.7
113.8
118.5
114*5
114.4
113.4
111.2
115-0
85.3
117.2
116.9
rl!9.2
120.7
r!19.4
120.8
119.3
116.5 . 114! 2
133.2
125-5
120.6
138.2
133! 4
135-5
130^8
135.6
140.0
130.9
rl33! 6
127.5
r!34.2
133.3
P137.8
P133.6
121
119
136
(NA)
(NA)
103.4
103.7
104.1
104-2
104.9
105.2
105.6
105*7
105.9
106.4
101.8
97.9
101.6
102.5
98.0
101.5
101.3
103.1
98.3
101.8
101.7
103.9
98.3
102.1
101.8
104.3
98.5
102.1
102.2
108.2
98.6
102.2
102.1
109.1
98.9
102.4
101.9
107.0
98.8
102-5
102.2
r!05.5
r99.0
102,9
102,. 2
105.1
98.9
102.8
102.4
r!43.9
P145.2
144
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
151
(NA)
146
183
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
129
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and stee!
101.1
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
1
Data
2
NA=Not available,
p-preliminary.
r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments11, page 2 . )
52
bed »"«,.«,«<
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
| » S g a § - & | f f
o
: § o - - ^ u ! s 5 " s - = ! - = ?
£ | B 2 5 $ ! J f f
f-i f f £ § l s - i £
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+
+
+
83
92
71
-
+
+
0
+
+
79 85
67
+
+
+
+
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
62 92
50 75
88
88
88
88 100
96
92
88
83
75
Durable goods:
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
;;;;::::::
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
: : : • : : : ; : :; J i i J J t J t t t
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
- NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
0
+
+
+
+
+ o
+ + +NA
+ + NANA
-+.
NANA
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ + NA
+ NANA
+ NA NA
paper and products
Printing and publishing
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Chemicals and products ..
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
_
-
+
+
+
+ + + + NA
+
_ , +
_NA
+ NA NA NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + + + NA
+ + - - NA
+ NA NA NA NA
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
-
_
+
+ + NA
+ NANA
+
+
•+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ NA
- + N A H A
_
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
+
+
+
--
_
__
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
---
70
74
63
80
72
72
74
78
50
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
-
+
NA
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous . . . .
Nondurable goods:
.*
+
+ NA
Minerals:
Goal
Crude oil and natural gas
Stone and earth minerals. *
•
+
+
+ NA
+ NA
+ NA
NA
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising .
All manufacturing industries
74
61
72
74
87
89
89
96
89
96
91
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Durable goods:
Furniture and other household durables
Nontnetallic mineral products.
Iron and steet
+
+
O
+
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
OO
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
--
+
0
+
+
+ -rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. NA Not available.
•^The percent rising is "based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
uneMU, ,966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July1"
AugP
123.6
104.3
111.6
iin.3
106.2
99.2
100.6
120.9
120.6
104.2
112.5
110.7
106.2
99.3
100.5
121.9
Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING^Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages ......
Cotton products
Wool products
Manrnade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
116.8
101.7
109.7
106.0
104.8
96.5
100.3
110.5
117.8
101.9
109.9
106.3
105.3
96.4
100.5
112.9
117.1
102.0
109.6
106.4
105.6
96.5
100.5
111.1
118.4
102.2
109.9
106.6
105.5
97.1
100.5
112.5
119.9
102.7
110.1
106.8
105.6
97.8
100.4
115.1
122.5
103.5
110.7
108.6
105.7
98.5
100.3
113.0
122.4
103.8
111.0
98.5
101.0
117.3
123.3
104.1
111.4
109.9
106.0
98.7
100.5
117.7
106.1
107.4
101.0
107.1
107.6
100.9
105.4
92.6
104.1
100.8
97.5
98.0
93.1
113.3
109.8
107.9
100.9
105-5
91.9
104.3
100,9
97.7
97.7
93.4
114.6
109.5
108.3
100.7
105.6
91.4
104.7
101.1
97.5
97.0
93.4
116.6
111.9
108.3
101.1
105.6
91.1
104.9
101.1
97.5
97.9
94-0
118.8
111.8
109.6
102.2
106.2
90.5
105.0
102.2
97.4
98.6
95.4
121.2
111.8
109.5
102.8
106.4
89.7
105.1
110.6
109.8
103.1
106.5
89.8
104.8
111.0
109.9
103.4
107.0
89.8
104.8
113.7
109.8
103.8
106.7
90.2
104.8
103.0
102.7
97.6
97.6
99.6
98.3
95.9
95.4
122.7 r!22.7
103.5
98.1
99.6
95.7
122.2
103.5
98.2
101.6
95-4.
120.8
105.9
93.3
lO^.l
100.5
97.6
96.8
93.1
112.6
p preliminary.
r revised.
*Data are seasonally adjusted "by the Bureau of the Census.
Digitized for 54
FRASER
109.3
105.9
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
6-month spans
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
1966
1965
1
•
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
,
General purpose machinery and equipment
,
Miscellaneous machinery
,
Electrical machinery and equipment
,
Motor vehicles,
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
,
Tobacco products and bottled beverages ,
Cotton products
Wool products
-.
,
Manmade fiber textile products
,
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products .
O
-
O
-
-
+
+
O
-
0
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
0
+
0-
o
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
-
0
-
0
+
0
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
—
o
—
-00
0
+
+
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising 3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
70
4
+
+
-
64
-
1966
1965
1966
57 - 74 49 14
—
23 38
6
61 59 64 60 68 70 52 44 38 22
-
_ • +
_
+
-
o
-
f
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Oil composite
Building materials composite,
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment —
Electric household appliances ...
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
•'•Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 77 components.
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
&*>
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas..
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson(20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23")
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis(8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
45
51 38 45 83
53 46 57 17 72
+
—*
81 87 70 63 92 96 92 7-4 45 68
—
Seattle (22)
- = rising; o = unchanged;+ = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week'including the 12th of the month,
•"•Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. (Seo
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
change are shown separately
market area.
Digitized for56
FRASER
The percent rising is
for only the 26 largest areas.
based on 47 labor market areas.
The number in parentheses
Directions of
indicates the size rank for each labor
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER
EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
57
CHART
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
SEPTEMBER
1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
T"T
PERIOD COVERED
—
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
. July 1957
to
Febt 1961 (Reference trough:
-«
Percen
Reference trough dates
Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
140
-i
Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
130
materials prices
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost, mfg.
120
110
110
100
105
90
100"
95
24. New orders, mach.
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
200
190
180
170
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
160
150
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100*
90
90
80
80
-12 -6
0 -1-6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
* Deference peak level. ^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
58
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
SEPTEMBER 1966
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957
to
Feb. 195] (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
' May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
43.
Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)1
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
Percent
115
55.
Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
110
105
100
-1 90
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
95
-12 -6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60+66
Months from reference troughs
Table Z shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. a l_ines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level.
Jr Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak,
o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
SEPTEMBER
1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
M
PERIOD COVERED
—
4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough:
4th Q. 1949)
"T""I
•«
I1"11!
I1""!1
Percen
Reference trough dates
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough: 3rd 0. 1954)
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
•
221
2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st 0. 1961)
20(
Percent
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
180
160
14Q
12G
100
140
135
130
67.
Bank rates on
short-term business loans
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
-12-6
0
+ 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +-36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60+66
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous exoansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. O Latest data anticipated.
Reference peak level. ^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. OPnint at which a new reference trough was reached.
Digitized for60
FRASER
bed
SEPTEMBER 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
T'"TMMI
PERIOD COVERED
|'""|"M,
TFTTT
:
— Reference trough dates
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
„...„. July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product
<
acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I
f
I
I
I
I
I
I
+ 20
[ " ' I Percent
+ 15
-Reference trough dates
115
+ 10
62.
Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
-5
*A/V7 \ I
-10
-1+12
98.
Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1
+ 10
64,
+8
Book value of mfrs'.
inventories
+6
+4
+2
-2
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 424 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0
+6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
^Reference peak level, if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
61
TABLE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
SEPTEMBER 1966
DCCf
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough i
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning inFeb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
66th
65th
65th
66th
103.6
118.9
197.2
151-5
102.1
106.4
98.2
134-0
98.8
86.3
95.6
127.8
102.3
96.5
122.2
176.9
112.1
164.0
225-9
267.2
69.0
54-4
51.6
54.3
77.6
59.0
56.6
34.9
92.2
18.1
16.9
82.8
(NA)
31.2
11.5
189.6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
66th
82.9
143.8
111.7
142.2
76-4
62.7
15.6
58.8
207.7
65th
65th
66th
160.0
108.6
56.0
129.8
134-4
48.7
134-5
195.3
61.1
158.6
163.8
75.7
73.4
51.0
(NA)
23.6
60.2
(NA)
14.5
85.5
85.9
112.4
97.1
104.1
44*7
76.1
18.4
L6. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits private housing
63d
66th
66th
66th
66th
66th
175.2
107.0
146,1
107.3
163-5
77.1
128.8
100.8
' 150.5
92.8
135-6
HO. 5
123-9
101.4
229.6
108.3
H5.6
100.2
117.6
97.9
247.0
84.9
163.5
154.4
225.6
(NA)
70.6
111.8
(NA)
(NA)
11.8
(NA)
39.0
71.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
68.1
52.9
(NA)
(NA)
107.7
(NA)
250.4
73.3
(NA)
(NA)
100.0
(NA)
151-8
54-7
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. .
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
66th
66th
66th
63d
118.1
+1.3
144.0
145*1
107.8
-1-4
123-4
133.3
108.0
-2.3
118.2
133.5
111.2
-0.9
138.9
146,3
133.2
(NA)
197.6
209.7
87.5
-18.6
82.9
77.2
65.9
(NA)
70.4
57.3
95-4
(NA)
110.7
124.3
86.4
(NA)
118.7
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y.
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
63d
66th
66th
66th
131.4
178.1
145-6
HO. 5
121.9
156.9
133.8
123-2
115.4
156.3
136.8
128,9
130.2
157.9
142.1
135.4
(NA)
175.3
209.4
147. 1
93.2
59.8
78.9
82.0
83.0
52.2
59.7
64.9
126.8
126.9
119.6
107.8
(NA)
111.1
(NA)
119.4
66th
104.1
101.3
111.4
110.0
113.1
89.0
67.5
83.7
62.0
63d
69th
165.6
175.1
106.0
112.7
119.6
129.2
115.2
133.2
(NA)
(NA)
48.4
50.6
20.3
38.8
123.2
89.9
69.0
61.4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . . 66th
65th
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
65th
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . . 63d
98.4
134-3
175.2
108.8
101.0
113.0
157.6
103.7
110.1
119.6
178.5
H3.7
110.9
H6.5
288.6
134-1
147.2
156.6
53.4
60.6
(NA)
90.0
95.6
116.3
52.6
(NA)
(NA)
94-8
85.9
(NA)
(NA)
109.4
72.2
(NA)
(NA)
83.4
-1.8
+6.10
-1-4
+5.36
+5.6
-5.04
-2.1
+4.62
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
(NA)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b Anticipated*
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed.income and prod, acct.{Q)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 5 .
63d
64th
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2" (series 19,23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage basefor
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6 r 7, 9 r 13,14,17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA=Not available.
*Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
^Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonal^ adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (4"th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only\ Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
62
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
SEPTEMBER 1966
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough a
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in-
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
66th
65th
65th
66th
+5.2
+10.0
+130.6
+61.9
+5.3
+18.2
+70.2
+51.8
+1.3
+18.9
+42.2
+42.6
+3.1
+8.7
+82.2
+104.2
66th
-17.1
+48.2
-4.6
65th
65th
66th
+71.7
+16.9
-4-2.8
+65.1
+4.0.8
-35.3
63d
66th
66th
66th
66th
66th
+99.6
+8.0
+29.7
+12.5
+72.5
-20.5
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 3 .
47 Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
66th
66th
6.6th
63d
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
Nov.
1927
June
1938
Mar.
1933
+27.8
-+83.6
(NA)
(NA)
-0.4
+32.8
+39.8
+182.8
-20.7
-19.3
-20.2
-65.1
+4.8
+0.2
-15.7 +171.5
(NA)
-45.4
-26.1 +168.6
+1-5
-18.7
+315-4
-85.0
-40.6 +112.2
+38.9
+65.4
-35.9
+83.8
+56.7
-35.5
+48.7
-40.8
(NA)
+97.4
-24.0
(NA)
-83.2
-17.6
-6.7
+61.8
+31.1
+15.5
+65.8
+6.3
+72-5
+6.8
+53-6
+38.2
+29.2
+3.7
+81.5
+8.3
+56.4
-16.2
+44.2
+0.6
+137.6
+13.0
+86.5
-3.6
(NA)
+12.4
+65.3
(NA)
(NA)
+88.6
+72.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-48.0
-45-7
(NA)
(NA)
+20. 4
+2.9
+52.8
+45.4
+12.3
+1.8
+43.6
+35.7
+11.8
+1.2
+30.0
+34.5
+17.1
+3.2
+51.8
+51.5
+48.7
.(NA)
+189.3
+138.1
+27.9
+6.8
+71.9
+53-2
-31.4
(NA)
-25.2
-42.9
+9.8
(NA)
+34-7
+27.3
+25.4
(NA)
+73.7
+45.3
63d
66th
66th
66th
+33.3
+73.9
+U.3
+U.3
+26.2
+61.9
+33.5
+26.2
+18.0
+53.8
+36.8
+29.5
+32.4
+64-5
+49.0
+36.0
(NA)
+109.9
+135.1
+77.8
+29.4
+56.8
+60.5
+45.1
-18.9
-52.0
-40.8
-35.1
+27.1
+31.0
+19-5
+9-9
+45.0
+43.3
+45-5
+24-7
66th
+4-. 2
+1.8
+12.3
+15.8
+19.7
+22.8
-27.5
-8.3
-1.9
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
4
63d
69th
+77.5
+87.7
+31.9
+40.3
+25.2
+35-2
+44.0
+66.5
(NA)
(NA)
+182.1
+194-9
-76.8
-55*8
+76,5 +101.0
+28.9 +78.9
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
66th
65th
65th
63d
-2.6
+35-8
+69.5
+17.1
-5.1
+17.3
+56.3
+20.1
+7.0
+28.0
+72.6
+50.6
+14-7
+56.9
+130.5
+33.6
+41.8
+65.4
-42,7
(NA)
+22.7
+61.4
+143.3
-32.4
-38.5
(NA)
(NA)
-1.4
-16.4
(NA)
(NA)
+24*7
63d
64th
+8.7
+0.62
+13.6
-0.70
+4-4
-8.04
+4.2
+3.80
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Oct.
1949
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2 Accession rate Manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space ^»
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted) ....
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+64.1
+5.2
+9.1
+100.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+140.4 +105.2
+30.8
-12.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
b. Anticipated
-19.8
(NA)
(NA)
-22.6
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.3 5(Q)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of Tor T (series 19, .23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of T or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 1, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA-.Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CTCLE
DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in 4
a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
Anticipated
expenditures Uth quarter 19o6) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries .
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series .
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879...
June 1857
October i860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
May 1885
April 1888. . .
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
. 21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904. .,
June 1908
January 1912. .
December 1914
March 1919...
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924. . . .
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945.
October 1949.,
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954. . ,
April 1958. . . .
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cjycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, ]L945-1961
19
05
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
4
!
3
46
Average, peacejtime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, J.919-1961
3 cycles, ]945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
JL
4
46
5
48
6
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial ..
..
1*3 , New bwsin^vSs incorporations ..,,....,..,..t T *
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks. .»
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus...
2*5". Nev "building p^rmitP, private "hnugirig. ...,,,
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
May
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
(NSC)
'58
(NSC)
'57
'58 Mar. '54
'57 Sep. '53
'58 Feb. '54
'58 Mar. '54
'58 Sep. '53
Aug.
Feb.
July
June
June
Apr.
Jan.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Apr. »38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '24 Mar. '21
June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
Oct. '23 Aug. '21
June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47 . Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
,
Feb. '61 May
May '61 July
Feb. '61 Apr.
4thQ '60 IstQ
IstQ '61 IstQ
(NSC) Feb.
Dec. '60 May
Apr. '61 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Sep.
'58 Apr.
'58 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ
'58 Apr.
'58 Sep.
'58 Jan.
'54 Oct. '49
'54 Oct. '49
'54 Oct. '49
'54 4thQ '49
'54 2ndQ '49
'54 July '49
«54 Oct. «49
(NSC)
'54
June
June
May
2ndQ
IstQ
May
June
May
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
»38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar,
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
'55
'55
'54
'55
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
»40
'39
«40
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
»33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip. .2ndQ
62. Labor cost per unit of 'output, manufacturing. Sep.
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories. . . June
.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'61
'61
'61
'61
3rdQ
Apr.
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
'49
'50
'50
'50
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... June
9, Construction contracts, commercial and
June
industrial
Apr.
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio > price to unit labor cost^ mfg..*. ... May
July
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Nov.
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus... July
Nov.
29. New building permits, private housing
'59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
'46 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22
'46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25 Apr. »23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NSC) Mar. '23
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
»48
'47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
»56
'55
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. »51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
»57
'57
»57
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
July '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
*57 Sep.
'57 4thQ
'53
'54
'53
'53
4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC)
(NSC) Oct. «23 Nov. '20
»37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
'60 Mar.
'59 Feb.
'59 Oct.
'59 July
'59 Dec.
'59 Nov.
'58 Feb.
Dec. '19
Dec. '19
(NA)
July '19
Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) . .
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. !60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. «20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ »24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC)
(NSC) July '20
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . Mar/
Book value of manufacturers' inventories
Sep.
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
'48 3rdQ
'49 Dec.
'49 Oct.
'49 3rdQ
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes
Monthly series
i/c
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD
for
MCD
span •
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
•
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, worker s, mfg
Jan.! 53- June1 66 .47
.41
2 . Accession rate , manufacturing
!Jan.l53-June!66 4.62 4.38
30. Nonagri. -placements, all industries... Jan. '53-Sep. '65; 1.83
1.34
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. ' 53- June1 66' 8.75
7.96
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. '53-Sep, '65 17. 13 16.59
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance ...... ........ Jan '53-Sep '65 4.95
4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan..'53-Sep. '65 3.76
3.33
.18
1.44
1.09
3.23
3.64
2.30
3.04
1.23
2.47
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.76
.79
.63
.76
.96
2.21
2.21
2.11
2.27
1.57
1.40 10.73
1.50- 11.50
1.52 7.24
1.53 10.73
1.42
6.61
4.18
3.76
3.97
4.82
2.69
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20.
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1.42
1.58
12.67
8.44
3.97
4.41
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus.,.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18 3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69 4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
May '59-Sep. '65 7.16
7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan.! 53- June '66 3.70
3.31
38. Index of net business formation
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .79
.60
13. New business incorporations,
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 2.49
2.18
14. Liabilities of business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15 . Large busine ss failure s
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6512.31 12.12
1.52
2.51
3
.88
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97 9.41
1.43
3.08
.89 7.91
2.54
1.30
.5-3 1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
1.54
7.84
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
1
C)
.84
C1)
.82
.66
.78'
C1)
C1)
1.60
1.88
1.38
1.87
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55
1.48
1.71
1.38
1.55
1.63
1.63
1.39
1.46
12.67
9.50
15.20
12.38
6.61
7.24
8.94
11. 69
3.00
3.39
2.63
3.06
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53^Sep. '65
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. * 53-Sep. '65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
26. Buying policy production materials;
commitments 60 days or longer
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
23. Industrial materials prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.59
2.49
.49
1.68
.25
1.64
1.92
1.02
3,
2
.81
.57
2,20
2.37
1.79
1.58
6.61
9.50
4.55
3.97
6.46
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
5.27
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
7.47
1.31
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
.31
.36
3.92
5.39
.14
.30
3.04
4.55
.27
.20
2.19
2.66
.52
1.50
1.39
1.71
1
2
2
2
.52
.80
.72
.91
5.19
2.01
2.54
3.41
1.50 17.89
1.60 25.83
1.60 8.16
1.56
7.82
5.19
3.42
3.95
4.00
4.19
3.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1.75
1.39
7.60
8.94
4.90
3.10
1.02
1.57
.53
.84
.97
.54
1.50
.27
.50
.83
.76
.64
.46
.64
.44
.71
2.34
.58
.78
1.88
1
3
1
1
3
.71
.58
.58
.78
.70
3.62
1.65
4.88
2.93
2.08
1.67
1.50
1.56
1.56
1.57
11.69
30.40
23.00
34.64
15.20
3.62
4.29
4.88
2.93
4.84
.16
.09
.13
.71
1
.71
3,90
1.54
8.00
3.90
.56
.53
.40
.19
.32
.49
1.28
.38
2
1
.72 2.41
.38 10.13
1.57
1.63
.56
.84
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
1
1
.65 8.94
.14 11.69
1.49 13.82 8.94
1.63 21.71 11.69
4.42 4.25
3.80
3.87
27.42 27.34
13.86 13.59
24.51 24.35
.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
8.28
2.94
6
6
6
6
6
C1)
C1)
I1)
t1)
C1)
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6522.53 22.53
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 6.70 5.00
1.31
Jan. ' 53-Sep.! 65 1.65
Jan. '59- June '66 1.58
1.31
2.08
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 2.46
Jul. '61-Sep '65 .11
.07
1.92 11.72
4.46 1.12
.93 1.41
.82 1.60
1.90
1.10
.65
.11
6
2
2
3
3
1
C1) 1.57
.73 2.53
.98 2.76
.74- 2.54
.87 2.58
.65 10.00
1.48
1.77
2.00
1.85
1.88
1.92
9.50
6.61
8.00
12.71
8.00
5.56
2.53
3.68
3.68
3.78
3.66
10.00
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42.
43.
40.
45.
Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-June'66
Total nonagricultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, total
Jan. ' 53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54-Dec. '65
Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
46. Help-wanted advertising
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
47. Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
52 . Personal income
Jan. '53- June '66
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr.. Jan. '53- June '66
54. Sales of retail stores
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
55. Wholesale prices except farm products
and foods
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit!of output, mfg.... Jan.! 53-Sep. '65
64. Book value of mfrs. inventories
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65.
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
66. Consumer installment debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
3.51
6.61
21.71 10.13
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82
83.
90.
91.
92.
Federal cash payments to public
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '55-Dec. '64
Jan. '56-Sep. '65
Defense Dept. oblig. , procurement
Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Military contract awards in U.S
99 New orders defense products
114. Treasury bill rate
1 115 Treasury bond yields
116. Corporate bond yields
117. Municipal bond yields
118 . Mortgage yield s
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued
i/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIESr-Con.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
..
Jan.'53-Oct. '64
87 . General imports
Jan. '53-Oct. '64
81 . Consumer price s
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
94. Construction contracts, value
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan.'53-Sep. '65
3.81
3.04
.15
6.64
1.45
3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54
.94
.80
.13
1.55
1.28
3.77
3.59
.69
4.12
.42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.69
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63
1.66
1.62
1.54
1.52
1.57
14.10
10.85
16.89
8.00
10.86
4.06
3.54
5.63
3.15
5.63
.93
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52 21.71
1.48 10.13
1.73 25.33
1.62 19.00
1.45 16.89
1.69 16.89
1.37 13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
I
C
i/c
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123 . Canada
122. United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . We st Germany
126. France
127. Italy
128. Japan
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan.'53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
1.08:
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73
i/c
Quarterly series
Period
covered
CI
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, mfg
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
IQ' 53-IIIQ' 65 10.36
5.56
IQ'53-IQ"66
IQ' 53-IIIQ' 65 6.03
4.70
2.95
3.59
7.69
4.26
3.80
.61
.69
.95
1
1
1
.61
.69
.95
2.94
3.06
2.38
1.32
1.27
1.35
3.33
5.20
4.17
2.94
3.06
2.38
IQ'53-IQ'66
4.18
2.69
2.99
.90
1
.90
2.36
1.30
6.50
2.36
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
1.28
1.54
1.37
.35
.34
.30
1.14
1.45
1.32
.31
.24
.23
1
1
1
.31 3.47
.24 5.78
.23 10.40
1.33
1.33
1.21
IQ' 53-IIIQ' 65 3.21
.77
2.99
.26
1
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
IQ'53-IQ'66
.82
.42
.65
.1
.65
3.06
1.21
4.00
3.06
IQ' 53-IIIQ' 65 1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33'
2.38
7.95
3.27
6.38
.93
.75
.19
1
1
1
.93
.75
.19
2.38
2.08
4.17
1.16
1.25
1.32
3.85
4.17
8.33
2.38
2.08
4.17
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57 . Final sale s
5.78
3.47
5.78
7.43
10.40 10.40
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
.64
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110. Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 11.47
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30
IQ' 53-IIIQ' 65 6.63
•4lot computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical
68
7.37
2.47
1.20
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a .measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month .spans and
for spans of the period of MOD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period.
For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with the number of
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
terms equal to
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series.
Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95,percent of the time.
Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
debits, all EISA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in'the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.—Average Unit Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
i/c
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
Ml. dol..
3.60
.74 4.70
3.47
20. Change in book value of manufacturers
.29 4.97
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
1.44
do
. 1.51
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53- Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.46
.13 3.51
.48
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Jan. '55-Dec. '64 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 4.34
.82 5.16
4.22
93, Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46,86 1.68
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
85 . Change in money supply
percent. . . 3.11
3.12
.29 10.88
do
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.29 8.78
2.53
2.52
112. Change in business loans
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
1.35
bil. dol.. 1.39
.35 3.87
.79
,31 2.56
do
,87
113. Change in consumer installment debt. . .Jan. '53-Sep. '65
88. Merchandise trade balance
Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dql... 58.44 55.87 17.28 3.23
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
MCD
MCD
I
C MCD
span CI
5
.98 1.48 1.45
8.94 2.79
1
Quarterly series
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
Period
covered
IQ'53-IQ'66
95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IQ'66
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
b. Official settlements basis
IQ'60-IQ'66
Unit of
measure
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
do
I
C
I/C
2.28
2.50
1.43
1.37
1.37
1.81
1.04
.76
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
do
492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06
•'-Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
CI
6 (Z)1.67 1.50 6.08
4 .98 1.69' 1,62 7.60
3.00
3.10
5
3
2.74
3.49
.98 L.59 1.43 7.44
.68 2.03 1.60 10.13
6 C1) L.37 1.37 9.50 2.67
6 (X)1.43 1.43 10.13 2.41
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64
3 .92 L.65 1.49 10.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42
2.56
3.13
2,64
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
QCD for
QCD
I
C QCD
span CI
2 .48 1.73 1.37
1 .76 2.17 1.37
4,00
3.71
2.83
2.17
2 .45 1.67 1.25 3.13
2 .55 2.00 1.41 2.67
2.72
2.56
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown
part 1.
above have the same meaning as in
69
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOV. 1965 TO DEC. 1966)
'
19€>5
Nov.
4. Temporary layoff/ all industries
5, Average weekly initial claims, State
•unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations1
14. Liabilities of "business failures
89.9
Dec. Jan.
Feb. Mar, Apr. May June
92.0 156.7 112.6
86.1
92.6
73.3
July Aug. Sept. Oct.
81.9 113.0 140.4
73.1
104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1 82.6 105.2 84.5 76.7
86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2 91.9 99.5 93.3
107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8' 103.0 104.3 111.1 111.2 110.1 94.8
95.0
15 . Large business failures
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. 100.4
2
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg, ... 100.5
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1'. 97.6
37. Purchased materials, percent report88.6
ing higher inventories
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
.
. . 100.0
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg... 99.5
100.0
81. Consumer prices
101.4
82, Federal cash payments to public1
83. Federal cash receipts from public3... 165.
90.
91.
92.
112.
128.
1«366
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement.... 96.4
Defense Dept. obligations, total
91.7
Military contract awards 4in U.S
85.4
Change in business loans
101.3
Japan, industrial production index... 98.8
86.1
100.1
102.6
100.0
105.8
655.
100.1 100.0
102.2 100.5
100.0 99.9
91.4 94.4
-2964. 1315.
99.2
96.1
90.5
101.3
102.3
82.8
94,4
95.5
100.4
94.0
100.0 100.0 99 9
99.5 98.9 98.6
99.9 99.9 99.8
94.1 97.8 100.3
2258. -1689. 1897.
99 9
98.0
99.9
104.7
4431.
83.4 99.2 95.6 95.7 179.0
82.0 97.5 96.1 91.4 142.2
87.2 113.8 84.3 90.1 174.7
99.5 100.5 100.5 100.2 99.8
100.7 108.2 99.4 99.9 100.6
97.4
93.2
95.0
99.9 99.9
103.9 101.2
100.2 100.0
94.5 118.3
-4573. 1313.
99.8
98.1
100.0
97.4
2181.
87.8
112.6
77.5
99.1
99.9
Dec.
92.5
92.0
88.0 103.6 138.5
93.5 86.9 107.0
88.4 100.7 76.2
83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106,7 100.8 101.6 85.7 100.2 94.3 96.6
97.9 98.0 99.5 100.3 100.8 101.1 102.0 96.3 98.7 101.6 103.1
96.3
106.2
97.0
82.'l. 79*.3 76.7 92*.8 102 !l 110.7 109! 8 101 ! 3114.0 121*. 6 lll'.O
92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9 101.6
Nov.
87.9
93.8
100.4
100.5
98.4
83.7
97.9
88.4
92.6
100 0 100 0
97.0 99.6
100.1 100.0
104.0 98.7
-4969. 165.
82! i
100 1
102.4
100.0
102.1
655.
87.6 92.7 99.9 96.4 99.2
95.3 99.4 100.7 91.7 96.1
94.4 109.3 96.3 85.4 90.5
98.7 99.4 99.7 100.7 101.3
96.0 99.8 100.0 98.8 102.3
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data
ally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
program.
^Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
70
from the application of these
trading-day factors.
to yield the monthly seasonMethod II seasonal adjustment
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937-June
43. Unemployment rate, total
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31,7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
4
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17,3
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8,5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.6
-5.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-2,2
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
-8.8
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-2.6
-1.4
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938.
Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945*
Nov. 1948-Qct. 1949
July 1953-Aug. 19545
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median: 6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
debits , sonalall
in rate, Rate at
stores
income
SMSA's
peak
peak to
trough
except
New York
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
4.0
2
0.0
11.2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.8
+3.4
3.5
7.1
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.1
2
3.2
2
1.9
3
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
2
2
+7.9
2
+2.3
2
Rate at
trough
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14,7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-8.7
3 6
2
2"
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+63.8
+25.6
+20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
3
+17.5
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+20.5
-3.7
7.1
•3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6 .
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+16.0
+23.0
-2.6
-2.0
6.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct . 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb, 19454
Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948
Oct . 1949-July 19535
Aug . 1954-July 1957
Apr. 1958-May 1960
;. .
Median: 6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945...
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
debits, sonal
all
in rate, Rate at
stores
income
trough
trough
SMSA's
to peak
except
New York
2
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
Rate at
peak
2
3.2
2
1.9
2 3
3.2
11.2
1.1
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "I11 or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the
3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
Sforld
War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Ouide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Jan.
Year
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours per production worker)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
40.4
39.3
39.7
40.9
40.6
41.0
39.5
40.3
40.8
40.4
38.8
40.1
40.6
39.2
40.0
40.2
39-4
39.7
40.8
40.7
40-9
39.7
40.5
40.6
40.4
38.7
40.2
40,1
39-3
40.3
40.3
39.0
39.7
41.0
40.6
41-1
39.4
40.6
40.2
38.6
40.1
41.2
40.1
41-0
39.4
40.6
40.3
38. S
40.2
40.9
40.4
40.9
39.5
41.0
40.2
38.9
40.5'
40.7
40.5
40.7
39.5
40.6
40.0
39.1
40.9
40.6
40.2
40.6
39.6
40.6
40-4
40.2
38.7
40.4
39.9
39.3
40.5
40.6
40.2
38.6
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.7
40.2
39.9
38.7
40.5
40.0
39.7
40.4
40.1
39.9
39.1
40-5
39.9
39.8
40.4
40.3
39.9
39.2
40.2
39.9
40.0
40.5
40.1
39.1
41.1
40.3
40.5
40-5
39.7
40.5
40.0
39-8
39-4
40.3
39.6
40.0
40.3
39.8
39.5
40.9
40.1
41.1
40.1
39.6
40.9
40.5
39.3
39.5
40.1
39.6
40.3
40.2
39.8
39.1
41.1
40.4
41.0
39.7
40.1
41.0
40.3
39.2
39.8
39.9
39.3
40.6
40.4
39.5
39.3
40.9
40.6
41.1
39.6
40.0
40.9
40.6
39.0
39.8
40.1
38.3
40.3
40.2
5.2
4-3
6.0
4.5
5-9
4-1
3.6
4-5
4.2
3.3
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
4-0
5-0
4.1
5.8
5.0
5.8
3.7
4.0
4.6
4-8
3.3
3.9
3.8
3.5
4-3
3.9
4*9
4.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
3-7
4.6
4-7
4.3
3.1
3-9
4.2
3.6
4-3
3.8
4-4
5-2
5.0
5.0
5-8
3-7
4-3
4.3
4.0
3.0
4-2
5.6
3.6
4.1
3.8
1.4
2.6
1.0
1.8
1.0
2.0
2.1
1.4
1.8
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.5
2.8
1.1
1.7
0.9
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.5
2.7
2.1
2.9
2.6
1.8
2.0
1.7
2.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
2.4
1.7
1.3
1.7
3.0
1.9
2.5
2.7
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.1
1.2
1.5
1.0
2.5
1.8
1.4
1/5
2.7
1.9
1.9
2.8
2.0
1.9
45,087
42,811
46,522
47,815
49,451
50,115
48,858
51,334
52,713
52,718
51,420
53,242
54,033
54,410
55,948
45,094
43,163
46,652
48,049
49,719
49,845
49,129
51,520
52,756
52,495
51,879
53,543
53,874
54,668
55,979
45,051
43,525
46,784
48,188
49,993
49,673
49,277
51,758
52,926
52,321
52,012
54,077
53,611
54,773
55,964
39.8
39.5
40.7
40.4
. 41.1
39.7
39.5
40.7
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.1
39.4
39.6
40.6
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955.....
1956. ....
1957
1958
1959
1960.
1961
1962
5.6
3-9
4-5
6.4
5.3
5.5
3.4
4-1
4.2
4.0
3.1
4.0
4-2
3.9
4.3
6.5
3.9
4-3
6.2
5.3
5.7
3.3
4-3
4-2
3.9
3.1
4-3
4.1
3.7
4-2
5-4
4.0
4.8
6.0
5.0
5-7
3.6
4.6
4.0
3.7
3.1
4.6
3.7
4-4
4.1
5-4
4.0
4.8
6.0
5.0
5.7
3.1
4-5
4.3
3.7
3.3
4-3
3.6
4-2
4-2
5.3
4-4
5.5
5-5
4-9
5.0
3.3
4.6
4.2
3.6
3.5
4-1
3.8
4.2
4-2
6.2
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.2
3-5
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.7
4.2
3.7
4.0
4.0
5.6
4.2
5.7
5-0
5-3
4.9
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
4-1
3.6
4.0
4.2
5.2
4.5
6.5
4-4
5.9
4.5
3-5
4.6
3.9
3.3
3.9
4.1
3-9
4-2
4-0
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees)
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962
1.4
2.8
1-9
1.0
1.5
0.9
2.9
1.5
1.6
1.5
3.4
1.8
1.5
2.8
1.8
1.9
2.5
1.9
1.0
1.5
1.0
2.7
1.4
2.3
1.7
3.3
1.7
2,0
3-0
2.0
1.4
3.3
1.7
1.0
1.4
1.0
2.8
1.5
1.8
1.6
3.4
1.7
2.3
2.5
1.8
41.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
72
.
44,658
44,622
43,467
47,267
48,268
50,084
49,380
49,379
51,906
52,848
52,044
52,449
54,223
53,565
54,742
44,541
44,445
43,192
47,518
48,456
50,320
49,300
49,548
52,132
53,044
51,485
52,597
54,445
53,417
55,047
44,662
44,214
43,871
47,725
48,473
50,398
49,095
49,864
52,154
53,106
51,196
52,914
54,406
53,528
55,193
1.4
3-2
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.0
2.8
1.4
1.6
1.7
3.3
1.7
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.1
3.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
2.3
1-4
2.1
2.0
3.0
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.3
3.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1,2
2.4
1.7
1.9
1.7
2.4
1.7
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.6
3-0
0.8
1.8
3.1
1.5
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.5
1.9
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
2.6
0.8
1.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.5
1.9
2.2
Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (Thous.)
44,342
44,058
44,276
47,890
48,494
50,413
49,008
50,123
52,307
53,068
50,917
53,267
54,585
53,547
55,471
44,659
43,848
44,607
47,829
48,538
50,394
48,856
50,44-0
52,418
53,053
50,825
53,491
54,430
53,743
55,583
44,925
43,626
44,995
47,951
48,142
50,416
48,810
50,739
52,511
53,003
50,855
53,636
54,336
53,981
55,627
45,124
43,457
45,387
47,951
47,986
50,413
48,719
50,864
51,822
53,009
50,943
53,724
54,260
54,101
55,720
45,040
43,506
46,064
47,815
48,705
50,304
48,691
50,957
52,484
53,018
51,15.3
53,270
54,237
54,279
55,796
45,143
43,671
46,298
47,770
49,146
50,173
48,750
51,114
52,448
52,794
51,413
53,304
54,130
54,310
55,908
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Contrnued
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Dl. Diffusion index for Average workweek, manufacturing —21 industries ( 1-month span)
194*
1949
1950,
1951
1952.....
1953
1954. ....
1955
1956
1957
1953
1959
I960
1961
1962
26*2
64.3
64.3
50.0
42.9
42.9
69.0
81.0
40.5
81.0
54-8
73.8
28.6
21.4
90.5
40.5
35.7
35.7
90.5
40.5
95.2
26.2
28.6
71.4
11.9
61.9
11.9
57.1
61.9
Dl.
1945
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
4^8
90.5
45.2
40-5
81.0
2.4
100.0
31.0
19.0
14.3
88.1
26.2
42.9
83.3
14.3
95.2
42.9
47.6
14-3
50.0
100.0
16.7
11.9
19.0
95.2
28.6
83.3
83.3
71.4
26.2
71.4
71.4
26.2
83.3
31.0
83.3
26.2
19.0
69.0
69.0
35.7
54-8
81.0
52.4
9.5
81.0
78.6
19.0
42.9
28.6
47.6
42.9
69.0
66.7
19.0
81.0
31.0
69.0
88.1
71.4
42.9
45-2
69.0
35-7
73.8
85.7
4.8
9.5
64.3
69.0
78.6
50.0
19.0
45.2
47.6
85.7
38.1
57.1
16.7
78.6
40.5
28.6
45.2
92.9
33.3
21.4
92.9
47.6
38.1
64.3
81.0
38.1
16.7
38.1
64-3
21.4
78.6
45.2
76.2
47.6
38.1
61.9
28.6
73.8
42-9
64.3
21.4
85.7
31.0
52.4
66.7
26.2
45.2
76.2
33.3
28.6
66.7
45-2 ' •
9.5
81.0
28.6
71.4
95.2
9.5
19.0
73.8
73.8
54.8
73.8
21.4
23.8
40.5
88.1
50.0
59.5
59.5
16.7
61.9
81.0
76.2
69.0
38.1
19-0
57.1
69.0
31.0
23.8
92.9
66.7
61.9
4.8
38.1
52.4
78.6
88.1
2.4
11.9
35.7
88.1
52.4
16.7
76.2
69.0
14.3
59.5
38.1
73.8
59.5
35.7
40.5
33.3
66.7
35.7
50.0
69.0
7.1
16.7
23.8
Diffusion index for Average workweek, manufacturing — 21 industries (9-month span)
14*3
97.6
31.0
42.9
9.5
33.3
85.7
4.8
14-3
45.2
92.9
28.6
73.8
61.9
19.0
100.0
21.4
.52.4
7.1
42.9
81.0
9.5
21.4
69.0
88.1
16.7
95.2
23.8
50.0
95.2
23.8
71.4
4.8
38.1
85.7
16.7
14.3
90.5
69.0
11.9
90.5
71.4
21.4
47.6
90.5
19.0
71.4
9.5
59.5
90.5
21.4
4.8
90,5
38.1
11.9
97.6
52.4
-16.7
42.9
95-2
40.5
66.7
9-5
73.8
92.9
16.7
0.0
100.0
38.1
9.5
95-2
57.1
0.0
50.0
95.2
26.2
73.8
0.0
78.6
81.0
14.3
90.5
78.6
26.2
85.7
0.0
92.9
85.7
4.8
78,6
76.2
42.9
64.3
0.0
92.9
38.1
2.4
85.7
73.8
38.1
85.7
4.8
95.2
35-7
33.3
0.0
95.2
45.2
7.1
90.5
31.0
21.4
4.8
92.9
35.7
38.1
66,7
23.8
52.4
9.5
97.6
11.9
11.9
92.9
26.2
52.4
9.5
97.6
16.7
16.7
81,0
35.7
0.0
92.9
73.8
28.6
83.3
0,0
90.5
61.9
28.6
11.9
95.2
19.0
23.8
95.2
19.0
D41. Diffusion index for Number of employees in nonagri cultural estab. —30 industries (l-month span)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
s'.o
53.3
90.0
.61.7
75.0
20.0
71.7
70.0
40.0
16.7
96.7
76.7
43.3
55.0
D41.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
•16!?
73-3
76.7
66.7
86.7
16.7
88.3
73.3
50.0
13.3
95-0
76.7
20.0
86.7
33.3
20.0
68.3
86.7
58.3
71.7
28.3
80.0
61.7
53.3
8.3
75.0
78.3
30.0
75.0
55.0
26.7
80.0
71.7
56.7
78.3
28.3
96.7
45-0
45-0
18.3
91.7
38.3
60.0
71.7
38.3
36.7
85-0
71.7
58.3
63.3
23.3
76.7
61.7
36.7
18.3
88.3
50.0
58.3
83.3
68.3
25.0
83-3
46.7
53.3
60.0
28.3
88.3
45.0
21.7
36.7
83.3
35.0
81.7
66.7
80.0
20.0
81.7
61.7
66.7
46.7
26.7
91.7
35.0
38.3
61.7
66.7
25.0
88.3
60.0
68.3
23.3
91.7
45.0
51.7
45-0
41.7
51-7
28.3
43.3
63.3
61.7
36.7
65.0
56.7
46.7
53.3
96.7
36.7
73.3
26.7
43.3
63.3
83.3
45.0
83.3
45.0
38.3
76.7
68.3
48.3
70.0
76.7
35.0
81.7
25.0
60.0
71.7
33.3
36.7
90.0
70.0
26.7
58.3
51-7
35.0
53.3
75.0
46.7
86.7
21.7
61.7
76.7
78.3
28.3
66.7
31.7
21.7
78.3
48.3
40.0
43.3
66.7
68.3
88.3
25-0
83.3
68.3
38.3
18.3
90.0
61.7
23.3
83.3
36.7
28.3
60.0
71.7
68.3
80.0
23.3
61.7
75.0
70.0
20.0
81.7 '
75-0
18.3
65.0
41-7
Diffusion index for Number of employees in nonagri cultural estab. —30 industries (6-month span)
10.0
93.3
76.7
63.3
71.7
15.0
83.3
63.3
40.0
15.0
91.7
80.0
26.7
86.7
...
11.7
83.3
73.3 *
58.3
70.0
13.3
93.3
56.7
30.0
15.0
95.0
48.3
66.7
86.7
53.3
15.0
93.3
63.3
55.0
68.3
23.3
93.3
36.7
26.7
13.3
88.3
38.3
78.3
73.3
55.0
20. .0
98.3
46.7
63.3
55.0
16.7
95-0
46.7
26.7
21.7
86.7
26.7
83.3
80.0
53.3
20.0
100.0
40.0
83.3
33-3
18.3
81.7
46.7
20.0
66.7
73.3
28.3
86.7
73.3
70.0
33.3
100.0
38.3
85.0
26.7
40.0
80.0
43.3
16.7
70.0
60.0
23.3
80.0
55-0
68.3
33.3
93.3
48.3
96.7
30.0
56.7
78.3
51.7
16.7
85.0
51.7
16.7
88.3
46.7
43-3
50.0
96.7
48.3
93.3
20.0
60.0
76.7
55.0
11.7
91.7
58.3
21.7
81.7
41.7
25-0
55-0
96.7
50.0
90.0
16.7
71.7
80.0
65.0
18.3
93.3
63.3
20,0
85.0
46.7
16.7
56.7
90.0
50.0
86.7
20.0
83.3
81.7
60.0
13.3
96.7
73.3
21.7
86.7
43.3
15.0
56.7
80.0
73.3
85.0
20.0
90.0
76.7
60.0
11.7
95-0
70.0
20.0
83.3
51.7
73
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Page
Issue
Issue
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. .
2 Accession rate manufacturing • • • * • • * * •
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricuttural placements, all indus —
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments. . . .
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total . .
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
• 8 24
8 24
8 28
8 24
59
8 28
8 28
8 24
8 24
8 24
8 28
8 28
59
8 28
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
60
60
59
L
L
L
L
L
L
U
L
L
L
Lg
U
U
U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22 • •
11
11
11
IB
20
22
22
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
*•
62
63
66
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
70
70
70
»66!
66
'64
'63
!
66
'66
'66
'63
' 63
'64
'66
'66
72
72
*66
*66
72
71
71
72
*66
*66
*66
71 71
71
Sept.
Sept.
Feb.
Oct.
;
Sept.
Feb.
Sept.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
71
72
70
72
72
72
72
72
Aug.
July
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar.
'65
' 66
'64
'65
'65
' 66
»65
'65
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
' 65
'65
' 65
'63
'64
'63
68
65
72
66'
68
Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.
'64
'64
'65
' 64
'64
*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
'63
' 64
'64
*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74
Jan.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Sept.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'65
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
!
It. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
49 GNP in current dol lars
50. GNP in 1958 dollars.
47 Industrial production
52. Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
54. Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
8
8'
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
*•
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
71
71
71
71
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing. . . .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries ....
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment11. New capital appropriations, mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .
Ill Corporate gross savings
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . -
••
58
60
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
70
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
73
July '64
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. . L
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . . L
31 Change mfg and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories, total. .......
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65. Nlfrs.' inventories, finished goods.
Lg
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
L
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . . L
t«
14
14
•u
18
14
18
14
14
14
60
14
13
17
22
58
58
59
8 27
8 26
8 27
9 30
8 27
9 30
8 27
8 27
8 27
62
63
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
••
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
Lg
Lg
18
is
L
L
L
13
13
13
13
61
58
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
••
67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68
70
70
70
70
70
= leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
75
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Charts
Timing
classifica1 2 3
tion
Appendixes
Tables
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E-
Page
Page
Issue
Issue
Vt. MONEY AND CREDIT
U
85. Change in money supply
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93. Free reserves
.
66. Consumer installment debt
113. Change, consumer installment debt
u
112. Change in business loans
u
110. Total private borrowing
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
u
u
u
u
u
21
21
21
21
21
18
12
12
g
li
114 Treasury bill rate
115 Treasury bond yields
117
118
67.
14
15
Municipal bond yields
Mortgage yields
Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Lg
Liabilities of business failures
L
Large business failures
61
61
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
62
63
62
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
.»
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
70
70
70
73
74
66
70
71
71
72
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
July
July
Nov.
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64
'64
'65
71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66
July
July
Aug.
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
71
72
72
74
>*
73
73
73
July
July
July
' 64
'64
'64
' 64
'64
'66
' 64
' 64
'64
'63
'64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
'64
'64
'64
' 64
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July
'66
'66
'66
'65
..
72
72
72
72
70
70
70
66
May
May
May
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
i 66
'66
' 66
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
86
87.
88.
89
Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of psyments
U
U
U
U
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
U
U
U
U
U
U
u
u
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
68
68
69
69
.•
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . .
91. Defense Department obligations, total. . . .
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92. Military contract awards in U.S
99. New orders defense products . .
61
62
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
63
70
70
70
70
70
••
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122.
123.
125.
126.
127.
128.
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production OECD
production, United Kingdom
production, Canada
production West Germany
production, France
production Italy
production, Japan
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl. Average workweek
D5. Initial claims
D6. New orders
Oil- Capital appropriations
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter. .
••
••
••
••
D19. Stock prices
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
1-month. .
9-month. .
Industrial materials prices .... 1-month. .
9-month..
Profits, mfg
1-quarter. .
Net sales, mfrs
4-quarter. .
New orders
4-quarter. .
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month..
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
D48. Freight carloadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month, .
9-month..
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .
40
40
40
40
4-1
40
40
40
40
41
D23.
D34.
D35.
D36.
••
••
*•
.•
• . 42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
73
73
73
73
72
69
73
73
Sept.
Sept.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
'66
'66
'65
'65
' 65
'64
'65
'65
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
55
55
48-9
48-9
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
73
73
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Sept.
Sept.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'66
'66
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
••
••
••
••
••
.•
•*
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
Digitized for 76
FRASER
@FedFRASER