Full text of Business Conditions Digest : September 1964
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SIPTEMBER 1964
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH AUGUST
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
Developments
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
SEPTEMBER 1964
Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN
DATA THROUGH AUGUST
This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis
Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Series ESI No. 64-9
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Feliks Tamm—Computation of business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Eugene L. Rossidivito—Specifications for computer processing,
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Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine Censky of the Statistical Reports Division.
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 30 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports . A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report.
All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 22nd of the month
following the month of data.
1
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation t o o t h e r series,
changes in components of indexes, etc.
These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 17, 62, 47, and D-47 have been revised from January 1961 to December 1963, to reflect a new seasonal adjustment of the industrial
production data.
2. Series 11 and D-11 have been revised to
reflect the change from 602 to 1,000 in the number
of manufacturing corporations included in the National Industrial Conference Board 1 s survey of newly
approved capital appropriations. The new coverage
begins with the second quarter 1964. The data for
the period I960 through the first quarter 1964 have
been adjusted to the level of the new series by the
source agency. In Chart 1, the level of the old
series has been adjusted to the level of the new
series by the Census Bureau.
3. Series 7, New private nonf arm dwelling units
started, has been revised for 1963 on the basis of
more complete information.
4. Series 29, New private housing units authorized by local building permits, has been revised for
the period 1962 to date to reflect a new seasonal
adjustment.
5. Series 31, Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, has been revised for
the period January 1963 to date because of the adoption of the 1963 survey of retail trade as the benchmark for the retail segment of this series.
6. Appendix F, includes historical data for series 47, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, and 92.
The October issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on October 22.
ii
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Table 1.—Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most
Recent Months
Chart 1. —Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present
Table 2.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1961 to Present
6
8
22
Analytical Measures
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent
Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks ....
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present
Chart 3. —Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Major Economic Activities: January 1961
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing
Activities: January 1961 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components and Percent of Series
Rising: July 1963 to Present
34
35
37
38
41
42
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent
Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific
Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough
Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
50
55
58
59
60
Technical Papers and Background Materials
Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures
61
Appendixes
(Standard appendixes B, C, and E are omitted from this issue)
Appendix A.--Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and
Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix D.--Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1963 to December
1964)
Appendix F. - -Historical Data for Selected Series
67
68
69
Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
71
iii
Technical Papers
and
Background Materials
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing -with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time
to time. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1. —Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in the September
1963
issue). A n e w version of this program is scheduled to be released
later this year. Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin
(published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue). This paper explains
what is known about business cycle indicators, the problems of using them,
and the research needed to improve their usefulness.
It was presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical Institute in Ottawa, Canada,
on August 24, 1963.
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in
May 1964 issue) . This paper is a summary of the technique used at the
Census Bureau to adjust monthly series for variations arising from the
number of trading or "working days in the month. This technique will be included in a new variant of the Census Method II seasonal-adjustment program ( X - l l ) to be released later this year.
No. 4. — Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue).
This paper describes eight BCD series (6, 20, 24, 25, 64, 65, 96, and 99)
which are compiled and seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census,
briefly explains their typical business cycle behavior, and gives a comprehensive list of sources of such information.
No. 5.—Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores:
Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in this issue) .
A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge, from the
Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 20233. Copies
for classroom use can usually be provided.
iv
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy.
The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series .
NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—Additional U . S . series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
whichhave important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2 ) . — O v e r
50 business cycle indicators and about 30 additional series with business cycle significance are
included. Together they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations
in the economy as well as the basis for making an
economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6). —
These measures aid in forming a judgment of the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle
and the extent of current changes in different parts
of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal and Related Statistical
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are
as follows: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30, 37,
55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, 112, and 128.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and
97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, and series 9 and 10 which are based on
Descriptions and Procedures
unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they
are published.
Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
the year. Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
made for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel.
Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
may be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations .
MCD Meving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series . This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for
all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide
an indication of the variation about these moving
averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
for years beginning with 1958.
Although not so
smooth as more powerful moving averages such as
the weighted 15-term Spencer curve, the MCD
curve is more current and has a smaller rounding
bias around business cycle peaks and troughs. On
balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle
fluctuations .
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historical
series and shown in appendix C . MCD is usually
computed for a fairly long period, one covering
both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pace
of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide an
accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery
when expansion has usually been rapid and too low
during the late stages of expansion when the rate of
advance has usually been small. This limitation
should also be borne in mind when making use of
this m e a s u r e , 2
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented— diffusion indexes, timing distributions, and
direction-of-change tables. These measures aid
in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current
changes compared to previous changes, the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of
the economy. They also point to developments in
particular industries and places.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over
1-month intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month
intervals depending upon the irregularity of the
^-Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
2
For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 1961).
Descriptions and Procedures
series. The indexes based on 1-month intervals
are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes (see chart 2) .
Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter
intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. ' When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen
of these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the
Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
and D58) . Indexes for these indicators show comparisons for components over 1-month and either
3- or 5-month spans. The 11 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to
the above 9 indicators. They include two National
Industrial Conference Board indexes ( l - and 3quarter spans) based on newly approved capital
appropriations (17 industries); the First National
City Bank of New York index based on quarterly
profit reports ( 7 0 0 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers 1 sales (800 companies) and
new orders (400 companies), based on data from
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data from the Association
of American Railroads; and new plant and equipment expenditures ( 16 industries) , based on data
from the Office of Business Economics and the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
months (see table 3 ) .
Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 2) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes.
These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- 01
5-month spans.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.
Descriptions and Procedures
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured from the May I960 reference peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is Beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates . Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
the current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in.
This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this respect,
with earlier expansions .
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates (table 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the trough level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spans from previous reference peaks. This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
These comparisons will be
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all s e r i e s ) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series.
For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) .
Specific
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These
comparisons differ from those shown for reference
cycles in that they show the status only up to the
specific peak date. For some series past specific
expansions were shorter than the current one and,
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate.
Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation pro-
cedure since 1919.
sort are as follows:
The principal cases
of this
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1 , 2 , and 3) . —
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion with its performance
during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined at
the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and specific trough (chart 5 ) . Thus these charts facilitate
judgements on the vigor of the current expansion
relative to cyclical movements during the corresponding expansions of previous cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , t h e cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles.
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons.
Descriptions and Procedures
HIV to
Charts 1, 2,
3
(May) (Feb.)
P
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-2 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexescharts 2 and 3.)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
("5"-May)
Broken lines indicate table-2
data for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
Para lie! lines indicate a break
in continuity—e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
("I" = first quarter)
See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series
Dotted line indicates anticipated
61. Bus. expend., new plant
and equip, (bil. dol.)--Q
Solid line with quarterly
plotting points indicates
quarterly data
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
*Certain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for
MCD 5-term moving averages and 2/4 months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS
Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg...
Per 100 empl.
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries. Thous ........
Per 100 empl.
4. Temporary layoff, all industries.... Thous
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
..do
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods Indus.....
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus..
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip..
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.4...
June
1964
May
1964
Percent change2
Aug.
1964
July
1964
Avg.
change,
195319633
July
to
Aug.
1964
40.6
r4.1
516
rl.6 •
117
r40.5
P3.9
523
pi. 8
129
260
259
261
240
5.3
+0.4
-0.8
+8.0
+0.4
-0.3
+6.6
-2.0
-9.1
-3.1
+4.3 +11.1
0.0 -1.5
(NA)
(NA)
P40.7
(NA)
499
(NA)
87
0.5 -0.2
4.9 +7.9
1.8 -3.2
9.5 +5.9
17.8 -12.5
19.94
3.93
r20.02
r3.92
r21.35
3.84
p!9.40
P3.72
3.8
4.5
46.22
4.63
P4.87
48.22
r4.63
53.55
P4.56
(NA)
(NA)
9.7
4.9
11.6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts...... Ann. rate,
thous .......
29. New bldg. permits, private housing.. 1957-59=100..
45
12. Net change, number of businesses . Thous
Number. .....
14. Liabilities of business failures.... Mil. dol
r!507
rl!2.1
+17
15932
90.44
r!585
rl!5.2
rH66
r!09.9
p!380
P113.1
15797
153.07
15852
151.92
(NA)
76.20
39
38
43
40
r31.9
103.7
8.9
r!02.9
103.2
p!02.8
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*.... 1941-43=10...
21. Change in business inventories, all Ann. rate,
industries4 5
bil. dol....
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
..do...
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inven5
tories of materials and supplies .. . .do
June
to
July
1964
40.7
3.8
533
1.7
104
Bil. dol
• .do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space.
Bil. dol
..do
No. per week.
16. Corporate profits after taxes4...... Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. 1957-59=100..
4
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg. .... Cents
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries4....
May
to
June
1964
7.3 +5.2
3.8 +2.8
2
2.7 -0.8
16.9 -69.3
-7.5
-4.6
-5.9
+2.9
+0.3
+0.8
(NA)
+49.8
13.1
+2.6
-13.2
+7.0
6.3
0.7
6.8
-0.8
+0.3
-0.4
-0.6
+3.7
-1.5
5.1
rlO.5
80.72
-0.2 +0.5
-4.9 (NA)
+1.4 -4.6
-12.5 (NA)
-10.3 +32.6
80.24
83.22
82.00
+3.7
2.6
2.5
r+1.6
r+1.4
p-0.4
(NA)
3.5
-0 2
-1.8
(NA)
-0.1
r-0.7
p-2.3
(NA)
1.5
-0.6
-1.6
(NA)
51
56
58
57
6.8
+9.8
+3.6
-1.7
..do
58
59
58
58
5.8
+1.7
-1.7
0.0
..do
63
55
59
65
7.7 -12.7
+7.3
+10.2
Bil. dol
1957-59=100..
+0.38
100.9
r+0.81
101.4
r+1.42 p+1.05
102.5 105.7
0.49 +0.43 +0.61
1.3 +0.5 +1.1
-0.37
+3.1
Thous
. .do
58590
65889
5.1
2.6
3.6
r58782
65549
5.3
2.8
3.6
r58929
65706
4.9
2.7
3.6
P58944
65678
5.1
2.6
3.5
0.3
0.4
4.2
6.0
4.8
+0.3
-0.5
-3.9
-7.7
0.0
+0.3
+0.2
+7.5
+3.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
-4.1
+3.7
+2.8
118
131.3
121
r!31.6
124
132.7
p!23
p!33.5
3.1
1.1
+2.5
+0.2
+2.5
+0.8
-0.8
+0.6
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commit32. Vendor performance, percent report25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
goods industries5
23. Industrial materials prices*
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments.
42. Total nonagri cultural employment....
43 . Unemployment rate, total
40.. Unemployment rate, married males....
45. Avg. weekly insured unemplojt, State.
46 . Help-wanted advert is ing
47. Industrial production....
50. GNP in 1954 dollars4
49. GNP in current dollars4
57. Final sales4
51. Bank debits outside NYC
. .do
..do
1957-59=100..
..do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
..do
..do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr.. . .do
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod1957-59=100..
1.3
1.5
1.3
513.5
618.6
614.9
2313.0
487.8
125.8
21777
2328.8
489.3
126.4
r21773
101.1
101.0
2430.9 P2372.9
r491.4 P493.9
r!26.9 p!27.7
r21964 p22115
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
+0.7
+0.3
+0.5
0.0
+4.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.9
-2.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
plOl.2
0.2
-0.1
+0.2
0.0
101.2
Basic Data
Table 1.--BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
May
1964
June
1964
Percent change2
July
1964
Aug.
1964
Avg.
May
change, to
1953- June
19633 1964
June
to
July
1964
July
to
Aug.
1964
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
Ann. rate,
and equipment4"
bil. dol....
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.. 1957-59=100..
68. Labor cost per dollar of real cor64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories....
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*^.
r43.50
97.5
r98!l
98.0
ra44.55
P98.3
3.2
0.6
+0.6
-0.1
+2.4
+0.3
Bil. dol
104.9
60.5
60.4
p60.4
(NA)
0.9
0.5
-0.2
0.0
(NA)
..do
Mil. dol
21.6
55220
r21.5
55590
P21.6
(NA)
(NA)
0.8
0.8
-0.5
+0.7
+0.5
+0.9
(NA)
(NA)
+8.8
+8.8
-0.4
+5.8 -7.7
+1.7 -5.5
-4.9 +3.4
Percent.. . .
56073
2.3
4.99
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal cash payments to public
90.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
Federal cash receipts from public... ..do.........
Federal cash surplus or deficit5.... ..do..
Balance, Federal income and product
account*4 5....
..do
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement... Mil. dol
91.
92.
99.
93.
Defense Dept. obligations, total....
Military contract awards in U.S.....
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*5
83.
84.
95.
..do
..do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Percent. .....
98. Change in money supply and time deposits5
..do
110. Total private borrowing^. ........... Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
.. do
5
112. Change, business loans
..do.
113. Change, consumer installment debt5.. • •do
114. Treasury bill rate*.
•
..do
..do
117. Municipal bond yields*
..do
118. Mortgage yields*.
..do
86. Exports, excluding military aid..... Mil. dol
..do...
88. Merchandise trade balance5
..do
5
89. U.S. balance of payments^
..do
81.
94.
96.
97.
Consumer prices
1957-59=100..
Construction contracts, value
..do
Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus...Bil. dol
6
Backlog of capital appro, mfg.
..do
110.3
105.1
-5.2
120.0
114.4
-5.6
126.9
116.4
-10.5
117.1
110.0
-7.1
-9.2
2192
p!015
1691
(NA)
4941
2465
2.48
+78
rO.OO
P4211
1663
r2.34
+118
+0.71
5274
(NA)
r3.30
r+132
+0.71
(NA)
p2.07
p+77
pfO.32
r+0.37
+0.81
+0.73
p+0.62
5.7
5.4
5.6
2.5
26.9 -53.7 +66.6
(NA)
15.1 -14.8 +25.2 (NA)
26.2 -32.5
(NA)
23.3 -5.6 +41.0 -37.3
+40
104.2
+14 -55
0.00 -0.39
0.23 +0.71
0.21
+0.44 -0.08 -0.11
11.6
8.6
1.22 -1.72
(NA)
(NA)
+5.60
+3.88
+3.84
+4.75
+5.92
3.48
4.16
4.48
3.20
+4.44
3.48
4.13
4.49
3.20
+5.80
3.48
4.13
4.43
3.18
(NA)
3.51
4.14
4.43
3.19
0.85 -1.48 +1.36 (NA)
0.0 +0.9
0.0
7.3
0.0 +0.2
1.8 -0.7
0.0
-1.3
1.7 +0.2
0.0 -0.6 +0.3
2.6
5.45
2052.1
1548.1
+504.0
-789
5.45
2004.3
1505.5
+498.8
5.46
2111.4
1589.6
+521.8
5.46
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.58
4.6
3.6
59.0
286
108.0
138
49.22
108.1
138
r50.04
(NA)
108.1
140
r51.46
(NA)
(NA)
P51.57
0.2
7.0
1.5
5.9
-0.04 +0.91
0.0 +0.2
-2.3 +5.3
-2.8 +5.6
-5.2 +23.0
+0.1
0.0
+1.7
(NA)
0.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.0 (NA)
+1.4 (NA)
+2.8 +0.2
r • revised; p a preliminary; e = estimated; a * anticipated; NA » not available.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity
rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,
4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the
rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as -tO.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
^Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators |
42
1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfq. (hour;)
41
40 |
39
38
2. Accession rote, info,, (per 100 employees)
5
4
o
^
u
«*
3
700
600 2
500 i
30. Nonaqri. placements, all inclus (thou^.
400
3. Layoff rate, mfq. (per 100 employees
inverted scale)
1
2
1
3
75
4. Temp, l a y o f f , all indus. (tlious.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avq.--5-tctm)
100
1252
150 "§
175
200
225
250
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.—inverted scale)
200
*?
300 t
1
400
500
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
CHART 1 N
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
(Nov.)
P
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. do!
24. New orders, mach. and equip Indus, (bil. dol.)
9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq ft. of
floor area. MCD moving avg.—6-term)
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
IT New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol
7. Private npnfarm housing starts (millions
MCD moving avg.—6-term)
29. New
private housing units
•jew bldq.
Diag. permits, pr
index: 1957-59-100)
i-
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
10
Basic Data
CHART 1 ^
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
(Nov.)
P
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
New businesses and business failures
+16
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
+12
+8 <
-£
o
+4 *
0
-4
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
20
18
16
14 2
12 io
10
8
-i 20
14 Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.—6-term)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.--6-term)
20
30
40
50
1948 1949 1950
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
dnlii II III lii III II In III 111 it In wit Jim III III ii lii lulu nliH»l»«lii In In
1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
1951 1952 1953 1954
60
11
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
NBER L e a d i n g I n d i c a t o r s — C o n .
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
35
30
16. Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bil. dol.)
25
L/
20
2
_a»
§
J 15
no
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100)
105
c>.
100 i
95
15.0
12.5 ^
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents
10.0 i
V
7.5
15.0
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries, Q (percent)
12.5
7.5
100
90
80
70
60
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 194f-43-10)
50
2
40
1
30
20
urn ii iiliiaiy A-liim iilnliilii iimliilii lilmMaUiillilii iiliilii n ti itiiiliiii n lim liliiliilll iilimim iimllmi
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1964
12
Basic Data
CHART 1 b
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
(Nov.)
P
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices |
21, Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (bil. dol.)
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories(Ann. rate, bil. a'ol.
MCD moving avg.--4-term )
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories,
materials, and supplies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg,--5-ter
37. Purchased materials,
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil.
MCD moving avg.--4-ter-n)
dol.
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59~100)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
13
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
r
T
|Employment and unemployment!
60
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions)
55 -i
50
s
X"
42. Total nonagr. employment (millions)
-|65
60
55
50
43. Unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
3
4
i
6
*
7
8
2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent—inverted scale
5
6
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
3
4
U
5
6
7
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59 = 100)
140
120
100
w
80
60
ii nlliliilii iilnlnlii nliilnlii iiliiby ^yiiilii iiliiliilii iilnliilii iiliiy&iiBiUH iiliiliiln iilifWiHdiiliiln nliiliilii iiliiliilii niiiliilii
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
<
5
14
Basic Data
CHART 1 t
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
B
NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s — C o n .
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q (bil. dol.)
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil. dol.)
57. Final sales, Q (bil. dol.)
-J 250
n ii m In In II In In In II In ttUJEsHi III III II lii iilii n mdfttf HI n MI
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Basic Data
CHART 1
ta
B
(Nov.)
P
15
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s - - C o n .
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
52. Personal income (bil. dol.)
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil.
dol.)
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. cfol.)
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59 = 100)
Wholesale prices
-1 80
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
16
Basic Data
CHART 1 t
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
C
(Nov.)
P
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
61. Bus. expend., new plant andequip., Q (bil.
dol.)
Investment expenditures
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
j Cost per unit of output)
68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil.
dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
I
(Aug.)
T
(julyKApr.)
P
T
1 1S
[Federal budget and military commitments
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
FT!
140
82. Fed cash payments to public (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.--6 term)
120
100 .*
§
80
120
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg,--6-term)
100
u^-X^
x;
W^
C^
A
80
1
r~*
X
60
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6-t.erm)
f\
^
IIJ
•HO
W^^P^"
'%
-10
95. Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and
product acct., Q (bil. dol/
•HO
-10
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—o-term)
91. Defense
e e n s e Dept.
ept. o bgl i.. , Tota
Total (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.--o-term)
4
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6-term)/\
K
1
1
3
3.0 ^
i
2.0 i
99, New orders, defense products (bil. dol.
MCD moving avq.--6-term)
3.0
2.0
1.0
1948
1949
19501951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1964
1
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Reserves, money supply and financing
n+1.2
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)
1
-0.6
85. Change in money supply (percent
MCD moving avg.--6-term
+.8
0
+1.2
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent
MCD moving avq.—6-term)
+.8 <
i
u
+.4 *
0
60
110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
50
1
40
50
<
111. Corporate gross savings (Ann. rate, bil. c'ol.
40
30
112. Changes in bank loans to businesses (Ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.--5-term)
\
113. Change in consumer installment debt. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
+6
+3
0
-3
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
i
Basic Data
19
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
D [I Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.)
P
li
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
M
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Interest rates f
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
1
V^
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
l/V
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
h
r
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
kt/T
1
118. Mortgage yields (percent)
UK]
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,"t>age 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
20
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e - - C o n .
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dot.)
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100
MCD moving avg.--5-term)
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
21
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
f Ii
Industrial production indexes
|
|r
47, United States (index: 1957-59-100)
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100)
121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100)
125. West Germany (index: 1957-59-100)
128. Japan (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
Sec "Bow to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
22
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by HD; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3> 4, 5, 14? 15, 40, 43> and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
]M3ER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
1. Avg. work- 2. Accession
week, produc- rate, manution workers, facturing2
manufacturing1
(Hours)
(Per 100
employees)
30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manucultural
placements, facturing
all industries
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
4. Persons
on temporary
layoff, all
industries3
(Thous.)
5 . Average
weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance ^
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
(Thous . ) (Bil. dol.)
24. New orders, machinery and
equipment
industries 5
(Bil. dol.)
1961
February
March
April
May
July
August.
September
•
October, .......
Per»em>)p-l%
39
3.8
43
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
3.8
04.4
4.3
4.1
©///
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
40.7
40.2
40.4
40.2
42
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
559
572
574
40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.3
40.7
40.6
40.5
40.5
40.1
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
39 2
39.4
39.4
39.5
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.8
40.3
40.6
40.3
2.76
2.74
2.71
2.74
2.70
2.80
3.03
3.07
2.88
2.91
2.98
2.96
29
©2.9
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127
393
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
557
557
550
555
554
563
547
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
135
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
17.70
17.70
17.15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3.15
3.30
2.97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.7
3.9
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.9
552
555
553
560
551
541
541
540
552
570
530
532
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
313
294
285
290
286
287
283
285
282
281
280
308
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
38
r4 I
D3 9
(NA)
536
535
520
522
533
516
523
1.8
17
1.7
1.6
1.7
[H]rl 6
pi 8
(NA)
123
123
91
122
104
117
1 ?Q
087
289
264
273
260
260
259
261
024C
lQ ni
3 62
447
459
4/4fl
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551
©13 95
14.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.89
15.92
16.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26
1962
40 o
February
March
April
May
July
August
September
December. ......
1963
February.
April
May
June
July
August
Septeniber ......
October
November
December
1964
January. .......
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
September *
October
1
rl 0 ^
(771 n/ D *7
0592
499
6
i Q cn
19.
50
1 Q QA
on / /:
3.16
3.07
•* /-\
1 /A
1 Ai
Q /
(T71Q no
•p9(~) r>o
-p-5 QP
o #/
-) Q
1? .V4
nriT'91 jp
*3c
lHjr<!l.
_-] Q
i r\
PIV ,4U
r>? 7?
?/Q
2
© = December 1960.
© = October 1960.
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
November I960.
5©
Week ended September 5.
3
23
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEKT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H"|; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4-5).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
N3ER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
9. Construction contracts,
commercial and
industrial
buildings
10. Contracts 11. Newly ap- 7. New private
proved capital nonfarm dweland orders,
plant and
appropriations, ling units
equipment
602 manufac- started2
turing corporations -1
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
(Bil. dol.)
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.28
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50
38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16
40.56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89
3.71
3.98
3.71
3.96
3.76
3.66
3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.14
44.15
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
04.68
51.64
52.47
48.17
054.84
46.22
48.22
53.55
(NA)
4.37
4.12
4.10
4.37
4.63
r4.63
p4.56
(NA)
1961
January, .......
February.
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
November
(Bil. dol.)
Revised3
2.26
2.46
2.85
2.62
29. New private housing
units authorized by local
building permits 2
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
Revised3
1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
(1957-59=100)
Revised3
89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
103.8
109.1
104.0
111.9
103.8
106.1
108.7
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0
1,287
1,418
1,551
1,656
1,651
1,558
1,584
1,454
1,712
03 1,824
1,544
1,524
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
1,688
1,613
1,638
1,501
1,507
1,585
1,466
pl,.380
117.6
©123.9
121.5
112.9
112.1
115.2
109.9
P113.1
12. Net change 13. New business incorpoin business
rations.
population,
operating
businesses
(Thous . )
©-"-6
+10
'+9
+11
(Number)
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,881
1962
March
April...
May
July
August
September ......
November
December
2.86
2*.*56
3.04
3*25
+11
+12
+11
+11
15,599
15,758
15,670
15,372
15,245
14,947
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
H,951
14,985
1963
April
jVfety
June
July
November
2 ".68
3*. 35
4*. 07
3*93
+11
+ii
+13
+12
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
016,275
15,759
15,867
1964
March
April
May
July
August
4.01
m]p4.87
October
November
1
3
2
© = 3rd quarter I960.
© = December 1960.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
+16
E+17
16,193
16,086
16,064
16,242
15,932
15,797
15,852
(NA)
24
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by ftTi; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
14 • Current
liabilities
of business
f allures 1
Year and
month
(Mil. dol.)
1961
January
March
April
Jfey
June
July
August. ........
September
October
15. Business 16. Corporate profits
failures
with liabil- after taxes
ities of
$100,000 and
over 2
17. Ratio,
price to
unit labor
cost index,
manufacturing
(Number per
week)
(1957-59=
100)
Revised3
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
77.40
107.15
89.80
93.15
••.07.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61
37
032
36
38
38
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
Q352.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
39
87.70
121.87
107.25
98.50
90.44
153.07
151.92
76.20
41
42
37
46
39
38
43
40
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.
©19^5
21.8
22^6
24.*5
99.3
©98.8
98.9
100.4
100.3
101.0
101.4
102.0
101.6
101.5
101.7
102.3
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating,
corporate,
all indus.
19. Stock
prices, 500
common
stocks* 2
(Cents)
(Percent)
(1941-43=10)
©6>!6
©7!9
7!6
8*.6
7*.9
8*.5
B.6
9^3
8.2
9\2
8.1
9li
8.1
9.1
8*.3
9.1
7!<?
9a
8^5
9!4
S.5
9\3
B'.&
9^8
09 .'i
10.4
8.9
(HJrlO.5
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74
21. Change in
business inventories after valuation
adjustment,
all indus.
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
©-3 .*9
+2.1
+3!7
+5 .'6
1962
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
December
a
38
45
40
46
42
37
101.3
101.7
101.8
100.9
101.1
100.4
100.7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5
24*.5
24^9
25.6
25.7
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56-.17
60.04
62.64
0+6.9
+6>!l
+5.1
+5.4
1963
March
April
flfey
June
July
August
Septpinher T T r -, , ,
October
November
DecprriheT*, . .
Tt
,,
100.6
100.8
101.3
101.3
101.8
102.7
102.3
101.5
101.9
102.0
101.9
102.4
25^5
26i6
26.1
2B\3
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
+3^6
+3^6
+4.*2
+6.4
1964
February
March
April
May
June
July
August, T . . . . T . .
31.2
0r31.9
103.2
103.3
102.7
0103.8
103.7
102.9
103.2
p!02.8
October
1
2
© = June 1960.
© = October 1960.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
3
4
Average for September 15, 16, and 17.
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
083.22
"e?.oo
4
83.34
+2.*5
H-3.7
25
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (E) and current highs, by fiTl; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4? 53 14» 15? 40, 43', and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
31. Change in 20. Change in
book value,
book value,
manufa c turi ng mfrs. ' invenand trade in- tories of materials and
ventories,
supplies1
total1
1961
torch
April
May
July
August. ........
September
October
November.
December
1962
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
November
1963
January
March
April
toy
June
July
August
October
November
pefipTriber. ......
1964
January,
February
torch
April
toy
June
July.
August
September
1
(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)
Revised4
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-4.3
-2.2
-7.2
+1.0
+0.8
-0.8
+2.0
+3.1
+4.0
+1.9
+7.0
+6.2
-1.6
-1.9
37. Purchased
materials,
percent reporting higher
inventories
(Percent
reporting)
26. Production
matls., percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer* I
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in 23. Industrial
unfilled or- materials
ders, durable prices* ^
goods industries3
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
0+6.6
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0.36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+6.0
+5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+5.1
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
58
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
061
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
S+9.6
+7.2
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
46
48
47
50
55
57
56
50
49
46
42
42
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
+3.5
0.0
+3.7
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
P-0.4
(NA)
-1.9
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
r-0.7
p-2.3
(NA)
40
50
54
55
51
56
058
57
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
065
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
r+0.81
0r+1.42
p+1.05
98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
0105.7
5
108.2
-2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3
-0.4
2
3
© = December 1960.
(D = March 1960.
© = January 1960.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue,' page ii.
Average for September 15, 16, and 17.
4
See
5
32. Vendor
performance,
percent reporting slower
deliveries* 2
Basic Data
26
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by HO; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45)• Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
41. Employees
in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unem42. Total
nonagricul- ployment
rate, total1
tural employment,
labor force
survey1 2
40. Unemployment
rate, married males1
45. Avg.
weekly insured unemployment
rate, State
programs3
46. Helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
July
August. ........
September ......
October
December
1962
January
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
November .......
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(1957-59=
100)
Revised4
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
53,725
©53,541
53,615
53,713
53,911
54,165
54,294
54,444
54,480
54,593
54,825
54,927
61,034
60,897
61,229
61,154
61,134
61,622
61,259
61,274
61,299
61,463
61,896
61,747
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.0
©7.1
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
©5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.9
6.2
6.3
©6.3
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8
88
©88
90
89
91
93
94
98
98
107
110
110
103.6
©103.6
104.0
106.7
108.7
110.5
111.5
112.9
111.6
113.4
114.9
115.8
54,946
55,223
55,368
55,703
55,822
55,908
56,010
56,019
56,125
56,195
56,205
56,211
61,899
62,179
62,253
62,247
62,663
62,752
62,620
63,021
63,039
63,007
62,870
63,240
5.8
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
4.7
4.5
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
114
115
115
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
e!07
115.0
116.4
117.5
118.0
118.2
118.1
119.0
119.0
119.7
119.1
119.8
119.4
56,333
56,458
56,706
56,873
57,060
57,194
57,340
57,344
57,453
57,646
57,580
57,748
63,090
63,227
63,478
63,770
63,690
63,843
64,092
64,069
64,167
64,128
64,319
64,315
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
e!07
e!09
e!08
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119.8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
64,631
65,035
65,207
65,811
065,889
65,549
65,706
65,678
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.3
04.9
5.1
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.7
02.6
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
03.5
5
3.4
116
117
118
120
118
121
0124
p!23
127.7
128.2
129.0
130.5
131.3
131.6
132.7
0P133.5
(1957-59=100
1961
March
April
May
June
47. Industrial production
©434*2
444.4
450* .*6*
462*5
469* ."l
475*1
478 ' 3
483! 6
1963
March
April
Jfey
June
July
September
October
485.4
487 *9
494*8
502.6
1964
March
April
May
July
August
September
57,850
58,183
58,327
58,502
58,590
r58,732
r 58, 929
0p58,944
508*6
0513*5
November
December
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series.
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
CD « December 1960.
3
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
4
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
5
Week ended August 29.
Prior to April 1962,
27
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by fiTI • the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
51. Bank '
52. Personal
57. Final
49. Gross
national
sales (series debits outside income1
product in
NYC, 343
49 minus 21)
centers 1
current dollars
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Labor in- 54. Sales of
come in mining, retail stores
manufacturing,
and construction i
55. "Wholesale
prices except
farm products
and foods
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
405.0
406.2
410.3
411.6
413.6
416.1
420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5
104.2
104.0
104.5
105.4
106.4
107.7
108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
111.7
112.1
17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
444.1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0
112.0
113.0
114.2
115.9
115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
2,148.0
2,085.5
2,095.6
2,198.1
2,150.7
2,105.4
2,276.8
2,189.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,246.9
2,320.5
454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1
117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8
120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019
100.5
100.5
100.5
©100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.0
2,355.1
2,239.9
2,322.5
02,451.3
2,313.0
2,328.8
2,430.9
p2,372.9
479.4
480.5
482.9
486.6
487.8
4B9.3
r491.4
0P493.9
122.7
124.2
124.6
125.9
125.8
126.4
r!26.9
(H]pl27.7
21,000
21,533
21,223
21,392
21,777
r21,773
r21,964
0p22,115
101.1
101.1
101.0
101.1
101.1
101.0
101.2
JHJplOl.2
S
101.2
(Ann . rate ,
bil. dol.)
(Mil.
dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July
*
©501.4
505 '.3
513^9
511.8
522.4
518 If
536>!9
531.4
545.5
538.7
March
April
May
553^4
547.3
July
August .........
559.6
554.0
566 ! 6
561 !2
571.8
568 '! 2
577.4
573.7
587 !£
533! 6
599.6
592! 6
608 ! 8
606.4
October
December •
1962
October
November
December
1963
February
March
April
May
July....
August
October
•
December
1964
March,
April
May
E618.6
July
August
September
October
November
December
1
2
(D = December 1960.
Week ended September 15.
^] 614. 9
28
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*) . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (jp and current highs, by E] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
61, Business
expenditures,
new plant and
equipment,
total
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1961
33*85
March
April
May
June
July
©33.50
34.70
September
•
35.40
62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost 64. Book value
per dollar of of mfrs. ' inreal corporate ventories
GNP
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
(1957-59=100)
101.8
102.4
102.3
100.5
100.3
99.5
99.1
98.5
99.1
98.9
99.0
©98.4
104.9
103.4
103.' 8
©102.3
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs. ' in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
53.7
53.7
53.5
53.4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
©18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8
42,109
42,035
42,041
©41,867
41,870
41,895
41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
52,324
52,784
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
4.97
4*97
4.99
©4*96
1962
35.70
March
April
May
36.95
July
38^35
September
October
November
December
37*95
99.4
99.0
98.8
99.8
99.8
0100.4
100.1
100.2
99.6
100.1
99.5
100.1
102 .*9
103*4
103*5
103.2
4*98
5.01
4.99
05.02
1963
January
February
36*95
April
May
38 '.05
July
August
SpptAiriher. . . * . .
October
November .......
40.00
41.20
99.7
99.6
99.0
93.9
98.8
98.3
98.8
99.5
99.3
98.9
99.1
98.6
104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6
5.00
5*01
5*01
5.00
1964
January
February
March
April
May
42.55
,. .
0r43.50
July
ra44.55
97.9
97.8
98.3
97.5
97.5
98.1
98.0
P98.3
104.2
0104.9
September
November
1
ra46.15
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
060.5
60. L
p60.4
(NA)
21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
r21.5
0p21.6
(NA)
53,212
53,791
54,315
54,727
55,220
55,590
056,073
(NA)
4*99
4.99
29
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by UTI • the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month
82. Federal 83. Federal 84. Federal
cash surplus
cash payments cash reto public
ceipts from (+), or
deficit (-)
public
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
92. Military 99. New
prime con- orders,
tract awards defense
to U.S. bus- products
iness firms
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
95. Surplus
(+), or
deficit (-),
Fed. income
and product
account
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
bil. dol.) bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1961
torch
April
May
June
July
September
October
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8
110.2
124.7
118.1
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7
108.6
110.6
108.9
110.2
112.2
111.9
114.9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5
-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
-9.8
-3.4
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9
-4.2
128.6
117.2
120.3
123.2
110.3
120.0
126.9
117.1
114.8
123.4
115.3
126.6
105.1
114.4
116.4
110.0
-13.8
+6.2
-5.0
+3.4
-5.2
-5.6
-10.5
-7.1
-6.0
-4^7
-3^4
-2!6
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,653
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
1.45
2.00
1.48
1.85
1.82
1.73
2.11
1.96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1.82
1,718
1,319
1,435
1,885
1,142
1,246
1,731
1,240
1,044
1,684
1,818
1,158
4,434
4,181
4,230
4,486
4,059
4,024
4,864
4,300
3,928
4,553
4,952
3,974
3,073
2,135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1.99
2.05
2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53
1,565
1,325
1,258
1,304
1,530
1,298
1,255
1,512
1,221
2,038
1,125
1,182
4,642
4,253.
3,905
4,108
4,601
4,378
4,834
4,497
4,215
5,176
4,138
4,090
2,343
2,571
2,168
1,973
2,250
2,125
2,506
2,704
2,688
2,224
1,566
2,041
2.89
2.09
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
1,071
2,067
1,030
1,516
2,192
pl,015
1,691
(NA)
4,370
5,484
3,731
4,592
4,941
P4,211
5,274
(NA)
2,337
2,854
1,603
2,529
2,465
1,663
(NA)
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
r2.34
r3.30
p2.07
1962
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
1963
January.
February
April
May
July
August
September ......
October
November
1964
January
February.
March
April
Mav
July
August
October
November
December.
-4 .*4
-l'.6
-2.9
-4.5
-4.8
-1.0
-6.7
+6.*6
-2.4
-9.2
30
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continwed
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by El ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply
93. Free
reserves*
Year and
month
(Mil.
dol.)
(Percent)
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Percent)
112. Change,
business
loans
110. Total
private
borrowing
111. Corporate
gross savings
(Annual rate,
million dollars)
(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
million dollars) billion dollars)
1961
January
March
April
May
June
July.. . .
September
October
December
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
+0.07
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.28
+0.21
0.00
+0.21
+0.42
+0.28
+0.55
+0.28
+0.37
+0.79
+0.46
+0.46
+0.64
+0.55
+0.45
+0.50
+0.58
+0.53
+0.71
+0.44
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
0.00
+0.14
+0.21
+0.27
-0.20
+0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-0.14
+0.34
+0.48
+0.41
+0.57
+0.91
+0.91
+0.64
+0.13
+0.51
+0.38
+0.34
+0.38
+0.71
+0.87
+0.95
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
+0.27
+0.27
+0.34
+0.20
+0.27
+0.40
+0.53
+0.13
+0.26
+0.46
+0.79
-0.20
+0.69
+0.69
+0.76
+0.48
+0.48
+0.63
+0.71
+0.66
+0.54
+0.73
+1.15
+0.34
+171
+91
+98
+162
+78
+118
r+132
p+77
+0.39
0.00
+0.26
r+0.19
rO.OO
+0.71
+0.71
p+0.32
+0.83
+0.45
+0.37
r+0.37
r+0.37
+0.81
+0.73
p+0.62
29,352
26,580
33,864
32,072
41,844
32,308
42,632
37,304
44,848
36,224
51,340
36,668
46,344
35,108
51, 416
38,628
46,188
37,376
54,824
39,700
55,208
41,920
61,556
42,328
56,352
40,920
(NA)
(NA)
+0.54
-0.77
+0.92
-0.37
-0.31
-1.50
+2.18
+1.00
+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72
1962
January
•
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
+2.90
+1.51
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
1963
March
April
ffey
June
July
s^pt.^mher ......
October
+2.26
+1.01
+1.01
+1.57
+3.18
+1.74
+1.97
+2.03
+2.94
+4.67
+6.10
+5.34
1964
January
February
April
May
July
September
October
November
December
+2.26
+3.05
+0.05
+1.81
+5.60
+3.88
+3.84
+4.75
31
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by ftTI ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
113. Change,
consumer
installment
debt
(Annual rate,
billion dollars)
114. Treasury
bill rate*
(Percent)
115. Treasury
bond yields*
(Percent)
116. Corporate
bond yields*
(Percent)
117. Municipal
bond yields*
(Percent)
118. Mortgage
yields*
(Percent)
1961
March
April
ffey
July
August. ........
October
November
December
1962
March
April
May
July
October
December
1963
January ........
March
April
ffey
July
September
October
-0.36
-0.89
+0.07
-2.09
+0.04
+0.30
+0.10
+1.01
+0.78
+2.03
+2.65
+3.98
2.30
2.41
2.42
2.33
2.29
2.36
2.27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62
3.89
3.81
3.78
3.80
3.73
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.02
3.98
3.98
4.06
4.63
4.43
4.36
4.56
4.61
4.73
4.74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4-48
4.56
3.40
3.31
3.45
3.50
3.43
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3.41
3.47
6.00
5.89
5.82
5.77
5.74
5.72
5.68
5.68
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.69
+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82
2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86
4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87
4.55
4.54
4.42
4.31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28
3.34
3.21
3.14
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07
5.69
5.68
5.65
5.64
5.60
5.59
5.58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53
+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4-09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52
2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4,11
4.H
4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4.35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4.36
4.42
4.49
3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27
5.52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+5.80
(NA)
3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.H
4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
5.46
1964
March
April
May
July
Alienist
September
October
November
December
32
Basic Data
Toble 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEHT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by ED; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, and 4-5). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
86. Exports 87. General
imports,
excluding
military aid total
shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 81. Consumer
receipts (+) prices
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
94- Construction
contracts,
total
value
96. Manufacturers ' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations,
manufacturing
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(Bil. dol.)
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
43.01
42.94
42.52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.80
46.42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.6
107.7
107.9
108.0
103.1
108.1
(NA)
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
(NA)
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
r50.04
r51.46
P51.57
1961
torch. .
April
May
July
October, .......
November
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
1,795.4
1,761.7
1,835.6
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838.7
1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1,404.1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5
+341.8
+489.5
+330.3
+430.4
+357.6
+484.9
+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2
984.8
2,117.5
1,960.4
1,912.7
1,892.6
1,784.7
1,823.0
1,894.6
1,979.6
1,946.4
1,944.6
2,049.4
1,091.6
1,497.4
1,486.7
1,417.2
1,420.2
1,420.5
1,457.5
1,508.3
1,450.4
1,458.8
1,471.9
1,480.0
-106.8
+620.1
+473.7
+495.5
+472.4
+364.2
+365.5
+386.3
+529.2
+487.6
+472.7
+569.4
2,037.3
2,028.7
2,077.5
2,046.0
2,052.1
2,004.3
2,111.4
(NA)
1,421.8
1,445.3
1,522.9
1,542.1
1,548.1
1,505.5
1,589.6
(NA)
+615.5
+583.4
+554.6
+503.9
+504.0
+498.8
+521.8
(NA)
-486
1
U7
-700
-1,231
6 '.68
6!55
6.58
6.53
1962
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October. ...... «•
December
1963
January
February
April
May
June
July
October
November
ppttPTriheT, ,,.,,,
-748
-440
-334
-681
-1,062
-1,295
-153
-134
6\S2
6\Bl
6.87
7.29
7!o6
7.53
8.02
8.75
1964
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
-75
-789
October
November
December
1
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
B\96
(NA)
Basic Data
33
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by 5D ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 4-0, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
International comparisons of industrial production
Year and
month
1961
March
April
May
July
Aueust
September ......
November
Pecemb^f*.f T - » , .
1962
January. .......
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
47. United
States,
industrial
production
123. Canada, 122. United
Kingdom,
industrial
production
industrial
production
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
industrial
production
126. France, 127. Italy,
industrial
industrial
production
production
128. Japan,
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
Revised2
104
104
104
107
109
110
112
113
112
113
115
116
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109
117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
155
154
158
159
162
165
169
172
172
175
176
177
115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
108
110
111
110
113
113
114
115
110
113
110
122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127
126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132
133
132
122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160
182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
130
133
135
136
136
129
128
132
133
133
139
133
135
135
139
141
137
127
125
116
129
133
134
r!29
r!29
136
137
136
138
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217
128
128
129
130
131
132
133
p!34
133
134
133
r!35
132
p!33
(NA)
123
123
123
122
122
p!22
(NA)
138
138
r!39
r!41
r!41
p!40
(NA)
ia
140
139
139
141
140
141
(NA)
172
rl69
173
169
166
(NA)
217
226
223
224
r228
235
p233
(NA)
in
(1957-59=
100)
1963
February
March
April
May
July
August
Sep-tAnjher. .....
October
November
pe^erobeT*. ......
1964
January
February.
March
April
Jfey
July
August
September
October
November
December
^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
2
H3
146
r!45
r!46
r!46
p!46
(NA)
Analytical Measures
34
Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months "before
benchmark date that
high was reached
3d month before business cycle peak
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
ffey
1960
July
1957
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
22
1
...
2
2
2 months
3
4
11
1
14
2
1
3
2
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
19
16
1
1
1
4
1
23
0
1
1
*i
i
1
2
3
3
11
27
3
6
11
55
1
4
23
0
23
0
X
18
0
2
19
21
12
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
23
4
2
2
3
1
3
*18
0
20
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
3
4
1
2
Benchmark month
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
1
2
1
1
1
3
1
2
3
3
5
11
9
11
27
11
45
2
2
3
2
3
11
27
4
4
11
36
May
1948
Jan.
1953
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
6
1
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
17
1
1
1
19
16
23
4
4
2
2
2
1
*18
6
2
1
1
1
4
4
4
2
4
1
4
4
11
36
Current expansion
6th month before business cycle peak
NBER LEADING
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
2
1
Aug.
1964
INDICATORS
8
2
1
1
i
1
2
2
23
9
July
1964
June
1964
toy
1964
10
1
1
10
1
4
1
1
1
5
5
4
4
2
2
3
2
4
23
22
23
9
23
17
1
1
"4
5
16
31
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
1
.••
4
2
5 months
4
i
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
5
2
3
6
5
3
11
45
11
55
11
27
2
3
11
27
3
8
11
73
1
4
6
11
55
1
1
1
"9
11
82
2
7
11
64
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from1 the distribution.
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
35
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percent
Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.—21 Indus.
(3-mo. interva
D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.--36 indus
(5-mo. interval)
D 11. Newly approved capital appropriations17 indus. ,NICB
*3-Q intervaI,*-*-*!-Q interva
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits-700 cos. (1-Q interval)
75
50
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—82 indus.
(3-mo. interval)
25
D23. Industrial materials prices—13 indus. mtls.
(5-mo. interval)
100
50
0
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.—47 areas
'inverted. 5-mo. interval)
100
50
0
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
36
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES:
1948
TO P R E S E N T - - C o n .
NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Percent
D41. Employees in nonagr. esTablishments--30 indus.
(1-mo. interval)
100
50
0
D47. Industrial production-24 indus.
(]-mo. interval)
-, 100
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods--23 indus.
(5-mo. interval)
100
50
0
D54, Sales of retail stores—24 types of stores
(5-mo. interval)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
37
Analytical Measures
CHART 3 b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
I ill
D35. Net sales, all mfrs.--ttOQ cos.
(percent--4-Q interval)
TOO
50
-* o
D36 New orders, dur. goods mfrs.--400 cos.
(percent--4-Q interval)
100
50
0
D48. Carloadings—19 infrd. commodity groups
(percent--4-Q interval)
100
~\
50
0
A
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars—4-Q interval)
+.5
Si/
D61. New plant and equipment expend.—17-22 indus.
(percent-- 1-Q interval)
100
50
0
mi
1948 1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
1955 1956
1957 1958
1959 1960
1961
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data areas follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (July 1964)
D48 (June 1964)
D61 (August 1964)
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
2nd Q 1963 - 2nd Q 1964 4th Q 1963 - 4th Q 1964
3rdQ 1962- 3rd Q 1963 3rdQ 1963 - 3rd 0 1964
IstQ 1964- 2ndQ 1964 3rdQ 1964 - 4th Q 1964
1962 1963
1964
38
Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34> which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
1961
jferch
April
May
July
October
November
95.2
71.4
54.8
81.0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73.8
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8
66.7
95.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
78.6
88.1
54.8
97.6
85.7
81.0
26.2
33.3
48.6
66.7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3
52.8
72.2
72.2
72.2
77.8
83.3
66.7
69.4
62.5
72.2
70.8
80.6
14.3
73.8
73.8
76.2
21.4
28.6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5
21.4
59.5
88.1
78.6
40.5
21.4
21.4
59.5
35.7
38.1
31.0
73.8
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
63.9
68.1
66.7
41.7
48.6
37.5
36.1
52.8
52.8
52.8
75.0
77.8
52.4
73.8
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
42.9
66.7
57.1
21.4
83.3
71.4
64.3
31.0
52.4
54.8
78.6
47.6
59.5
64.3
47.6
66.7
7.1
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
66.7
75.0
73.6
55.6
56.9
50.0
41.7
45.8
62.5
54.2
69.4
77.8
0.0
85.7
28.6
78.6
35.7
21.4
r52.4
p69.0
85.7
50.0
92.9
40.5
r33.3
r33.3
P54.8
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
r50.0
r59.7
P37.5
66.7
72.2
61.1
r58.3
r75.0
P59.7
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
NICE (17 industries)
1-quarter
interval
3 -quarter
interval
Revised x
Revised1
53
59
59
65
'?6
71
47
65
65
41
*32
82
*82
*53
59
74
47
53
59
*53
*59
*65
53
71
47
71
1962
March
April
ffey
August
PefiemhpT,.T
1963
March
April
May
July
August »
S^pt^Triber. - T T . October
1964
February. ......
March
April
ffey.
*
July....
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
71
Analytical Measures
39
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1*1 TO PRESENT-Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34> which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA, not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
D34. Profits, D19. Index- of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(80 industries)1
corporations)
Tear and
month
1-quarter
interval
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
5-month
interval
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
1961
47
March
April
* ...
"60
fey
July
August
SeptemberT T - * - October
Novepjher ,.»....
*58
*56
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
42.3
76.9
84.6
73.1
53.8
46.2
53.8
46.2
61.5
38.5
15.4
61.5
61.5
76.9
76.9
76.9
61.5
61.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
69.2
53.8
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
53.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
57.4
59.6
61.7
66.0
68.1
66.0
61.7
93.6
93.6
68.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
76.9
38.5
38.5
15.4
42.3
26.9
23.1
34.6
61.5
53.8
84.6
66.7
46.2
61.5
23.1
23.1
23.1
15.4
30.8
23.1
53.8
66.7
75.0
69.2
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
48.9
22.3
63.8
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
88.0
62.5
54.4
60.2
74.4
56.4
50.6
68.4
58.3
58.3
50.0
38.5
50.0
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
76.9
69.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
58.3
58.3
46.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
73.1
76.9
76.9
84.6
23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
44.7
61.7
31.9
34.0
69.1
48.9
48.9
85.1
54.3
63.8
68.1
70.2
40.4
31.9
68.1
48.9
74.7
64.7
78.2
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
73.7
81.0
82.1
77.9
57.7
70.5
61.5
61.5
57.7
38.5
61.5
38.5
50.0
65.4
61.5
2
61.5
69.2
61.5
53.8
53.8
61.5
61.5
2
46, 2
85.1
12.8
66.0
75.5
51.1
51.1
59.6
57.4
51.1
83.0
78.7
55.3
70.2
76.6
1962
54
February
March
April
MEIV
June
July
Sept-eT^her
r
October
November .......
*47
'48
*56
1963
50
February
March
April
*59
May
Jiilv
*56
August
October
November
December
1964
55
57
March
April
May
July
60
October. .......
lr
The diffusion index is based on 82 components, January 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter. 18 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 23 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6).
2
Average for September 15, 16, and 17.
Analytical Measures
40
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees D47. Index of industrial
in nonagricultural
production
e s tabl i shmen t s
(24 industries)
(30 industries)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
July
August
October
November
3-month
interval
Revised1
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing industries)
5-month
interval
5-month
interval
1-month
interval
58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4
43.8
43.8
64.6
62.5
64.6
56.3
83.3
87.5
95.8
81.3
83.3
83.3
39.1
47.8
41.3
65.2
45.7
37.0
50.0
56.5
60.9
39.1
47.8
56.5
43.5
34.8
39.1
43.5
52.2
41.3
43.5
47.8
54.3
45.7
50.0
60.9
1 -mo nth
interval
45.0
33.3
61.7
56.7
86.7
88.3
70.0
70.0
56.7
71.7
81.7
63.3
15.0
40.0
43.3
78.3
85.0
90.0
90.0
66.7
80.0
80.0
78.3
76.7
56.3
50.0
62.5
70.8
72.9
91.7
77.1
72.9
54.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
Revised1
45.8
64.6
81.3
83.3
83.3
83.3
97.9
79.2
85.4
87.5
91.7
62.5
55.0
80.0
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
45.0
33.3
43.3
78.3
88.3
88.3
80,0
73.3
65.0
51.7
38.3
35.0
26.7
28.3
43.3
25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4
56.3
77.1
87.5
87.5
72.9
75.0
68.8
85.4
58.3
66.7
50.0
68.8
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
85.4
93.8
89.6
70.8
81.3
79.2
70.8
54.2
95.8
95.8
81.3
79.2
69.6
43.5
52.2
58.7
45.7
43.5
39.1
41.3
54.3
34.8
45.7
39.1
54.3
63.0
63.0
58.7
52.2
47.8
43.5
30.4
41.3
34.8
23.9
30.4
63.3
48.3
83.3
66.7
85.0
61.7
75.0
48.3
45.0
65.0
41.7
70.0
53.3
65.0
71.7
83.3
78.3
75.0
60.0
50.0
48.3
40.0
63.3
48.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
66.7
83.3
85.4
91.7
83.3
87.5
89.6
77.1
72.9
70.8
77.1
68.8
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
81.3
56.3
45.8
58.3
62.5
75.0
66.7
70.8
54.2
68.8
58.3
87.5
39.1
43.5
37.0
41.3
58.7
63.0
47.8
58.7
58.7
76.1
69.6
60.9
34.8
28.3
45.7
50.0
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
71.7
69.6
73.9
71.7
43.3
83.3
76.7
63.3
60.0
r70.0
r76.7
P43.3
73.3
75.0
85.0
80.0
r78.3
r80.0
P68.3
58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
72.9
P75.0
83.3
83.3
91.7
87.5
79.2
83.3
P75.0
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
r66.7
r52.1
P56.2
81.2
79.2
81.2
r89.6
r79.2
P54.2
58.7
63.0
45.7
63.0
43.5
45.7
r67.4
p65.2
67.4
69.6
54.3
56.5
r52.2
p60.9
1961
February. ......
March
April
May
1-month
interval
D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)
1962
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
1963
March
April
May
July
August
October
1964
March
April
May.
July
August
October
November
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
Analytical Measures
41
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available.
Year and
month
D35. Net sales,
manufa c tur e s
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
Antici- Change in
pated total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1961
March
April
May
June
July
AugustSeptember
October
1962
January
March
April
May
June
July
*72
*82
72
78
36.8
89*.5
-28
*74
*83
*73
78
68.4
73.7
+79
*82
*88
*82
*86
r73 .'7
89^5
+125
*81
*86
78
82
63.2
89^5
+62
'so
88
*76
84
57.9
94.7
-67
*76
80
*74
*74
63 \2
89^5
-96
72
74
71
*70
42.1
68.4
-66
*74
*82
*76
*76
63 '.2
63.2
+28
*76
80
77
*76
73.7
78.9
r+39
*74
*80
*76
'76
(NA)
68 '.4
+44
*82
*84
*82
80
78!9
+39
"8*4
85
82
84
73.7
-35
*87
*84
68.4
r+16
*86
*84
October
November
28.1
37.5
46.9
53.1
56.2
62!5
59!Z
65!6
65.6
62.5
68.8
68.8
65^6
65!6
46.9
6s!8
40.6
50.0
65 '.6
75.0
75.0
71^9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62! 5
50.*0
1963
February
March
April
May
July
September t T . t T T
1964
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
Pep-einher » » - - » » T
r75.0
6B.B
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT
(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
1-month spans
1964
r-t
3
"-a
1
c-J
>-3
All durable goods industries. ......
Primary metals:
. •
Fabricated metal products:
Hardware, structural metal and wire prod
Special industry machinery*
Electrical machinery:
rH
3
*~3
ex
&
t
>
O
2
1
+->
8
o
c
a so1
1a
,0
FH
h
Radio and TV
+
+
+
+
4-
+ +
+
+
4-
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
+ +
+
+ -
+
+ +
4-
44+
+
+
Furniture total
b D f X - H
+
+
+
+ + - + + - + - + + + + - + + -
+
+
+
+ +
+ 4+
+
0
+
0
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+ +
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
tlQ
(^
-P
>
0
3
<tj
1
^H
erf
g
<D
01
1
fn
CX
<«J
0
O
1
>»
Jd
S
O
S
1
i
3
"-a
0)
Q
1
nH
^
^
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
t U D P n - P > O f l r £ ) ^ l ? H t > s f l r H
^ ( D O O C D o j t D c d a , ^ ^ ^
^ O ^ O S Q h i p i H S - ^ S 1 - ^ 1 - ^
57 50 42 46 62 54 69 78 67 72 6l 58 75 60
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
-
+ +
+
+
+
+
+ -
+
+
+
+
_ + +
+
_
f
+
+
-
- + - o +
+
+
+
0
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
0
+
+
+ +
+
4 - +
_
_
+
+
_
+
-+
-
+
+
+
+
4 - + -
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_ _
+
-
+
4 - +
+
+
+
+
+
0
s
+ +
o
-
-
-
- +
+
+ 4 -
+
_ +
4-
-
+
-
+
+
* - - +
+
- +
-f-f
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
_ +
-
+
0
-
-
+
+
-
h
+
-
4-
-
o
+
+
-
- +
+ +
0
-
+
+
+
+
+ -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
-
_
+
+
-
+
+ - + +
-
- +
+ _ +
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
mined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
S ^ 3 ^ ^ i t > s a r H f i D a < - P > 0
c d d > K j f t c d ^ ^ ^ ( D O O ( D
i - D t ^ S ^ S ^ ^ ^ C O O S Q
4-
+
+
+
4
-
+
+ 4 -
-
-
+
+
+
_
_
+
^
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
rH
3
i-D
1
,0
<D
^
+
+
+
_ _
+ - - + + - + _ -
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
0
_ +
+
o
+
>
- + - +
+
+
+
+ - +
+ +
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
rH
4-
+ +
+
+ +
+
+
+
0
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
C
£i fi
i §
i iI JH Z>>1 ZC1 i—31I $>b1 f l C81 X -&P1 af>1
c £> PH
cd
1-3
& s ^j- S Z 2 3 & 8 £
+
Electrical industrial apparatus*
K>>
1964
1963
51 53 53 69 33 62 56 44 58 61 44 50 60 38
Machinery, except electrical:
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment. . . . . .
. ..
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
bfl
:3
<
Sep-Oct
1963
36 industry components
5-month spans
+
-
-
-
-
__+
-
+
+
!::::;::
i++ +++ - +
+
+
+
- +
- 4 - +
+
+
_
+
- - + -
before the direction of change is deter-
n>
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3-month spans
1-month spans
1963
^1 51
r-l
C
O,
<U
CO
1963
1964
23 industry components 1
-H>
O
O
i) cL
3 $>
1• ai
•H
>
8 £
c
i
o
a
/ D ^ ^ i > i C : < - l t l O P 4 - H > 0
|
~ 3 b - i ! E l
<
3 j ) i i
l
~ 3
>
~ 3
29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76 53 35 90 41
Coal
bituminous
Dr*U£s
Steel
Metal fabricating
•
.
-
•
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4444-
44444-
44-
4-
4444-
4-
444
44t-
-
_
44-
-
<
i J C O O 2 ;
bO
2
OU
-P
>
0
bD
Oi
ft
>s
C
r-»
<3
S
*-3
»~3
^ CO
JH
^
> j p r 4 b p D , - P
c j O f l J t r t f l J t r i C X . Q l J J J f l )
O 2 : Q > - 3 U < S < i 5 S | - 3 | - 3 < 5 j C O
4-4-4-
4-
-
-
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - i - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - -
- 4 - 4 4- 4- 4-
4-
4-
44-
_
-
_ _ _ 4 - - - - _
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4i-
4-
4-
4-
-
44
4-
4-
4-
i-
4-
-
-
4-
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
f-
4-
-
-
4-
-
4-
4-
> 0
62 54 60 74 56 51 68 74 81 82 78 58 70 62
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
C,Q
a>
b
O <p
1 >1 O1 C1 4 31 £1 - ( 1£ - t 1> i C1 r H1 h j 1D C 1X
i ^ i i i %&&%£233$>8£&
-»->
44444-
+
4 - - - - 4 4 -
-
...
Electronics
........ . . .......
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
4-
...
-
-
.... ..
0
4-
44-
44-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
-
4-
4
-
f
4-
4-
4-4-
-
4-
4
-
4-
4-
4
4-
444
+
4-
4-
f4
4-
t4-
4-
44-
-
4-
444-
4
4444-
h
—
4-
4-
—
—
4-
—
+
+ -
+
-
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
t-
_
+
_
0
-
-
+
4-
+
4
40
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
_
4-" 4-
4-
44-
44-
44-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- -h 4- 4- 4- 4- 4
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ _
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
_ _ _
4 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - _ _ . _ + 4 . 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
c=
*-t
o
-
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
^The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 42
Based on 80 industries to August 1963; on 79 industries, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.
rt
^
O
...
-
Lifg insurance
4-
r-l
2
&£%&323$>8£&
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
C , Q
?H
f-\
> s C i —i b D C X - H
>
1964
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D23)
Index of Industrial Materials Prices
1-month spans
1963
5-month spans
1964
8
1
3 i ex
5 5 3
1
C
,0
?H
^
1
0
1
C
1
,0
1
£n
<l)
§ 1 Q
ed
^
cu
fn
(d
S
?
? I 3
£
l
<^ 1 1
I
rH
"&
co
S
^
54 54 54 77 69 54 62 58 38 62 38 50 65 62 6?
4+ 4- o + + - + ,+
+
0
4-
Lead scrap (ib. )
Tin (ib. )
-
- +
4
+
-
44 +
.
.
+•
-»--*-
+
-
o
o
1
tf
Pu
J CD
tj CO
O -
-
t
>
o
CD
Z
CD
D
1-D
C
O
r
J
£ > ^ H ^ > » C H r - ) t l D r i u - P > 0
Q ) r f A r f 3 ^ ^ C D O O C D
t i^
D ^
a - ^p >^ o ^« o
x i jf C
H f D
H ^S
g rQ
H
^
^
^ J Q ) o o < D a J ( D c d C X c d P ^
< 3 j C O O ^ Q ^ C n S - = J l S 1 - 3 H 3
46 42 46 54 73 77 77 85 69 62 54 54 62 62 46
4
-
-
4
4-
4
4-
4-
4
4
-
-
4
4-
-t-
4-
4-4-
+
-
-
-
4
4-
+
+
+
+
44
+
-
+
-4
4
^
-
-
-
g
O
+
.
-P
0
O
1964
!, i
! 5- ti3
4
-
Wool tops (ib )
-
+
0
44
- +
*
"*"
Burlap (yd. )
-
-
1
Al-1,-1.
0
CX
Un-r*
Hfl
Feb-Jul
r-H
1963
Sep-Oct
13 industrial materials components
O +
4
4
4
4-
+
0
+
- 0 +
4-4-4+ 4-4-
-
4
-
-
-
* + +
^
«n
4
Rosin (100 Ib. )
Rubber (ib. )
Tallow (ib. )
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
direction of change is determined.
•"•Average for September 15, 16, and 17.
4-
t
H*«
-
4
+•
+•
4-
4-
__
-
+
4-4--l-
+
4-
JL
+
4
-
+
*
+
- - - - -
4
4
4 4 - 4 -
4-4-4-
4 - 4 - - - 4 4 4 +
Series components are seasonally adjusted (except for all-industry totals) by the Bureau of the Census before the
^
r*
£J
£
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
5-month spans
1-month spans
-p
1963
12
26 area components
*-. 0
rH
bO
CX
-P
>
0
2i si ai 8i si ai % ^
i i
£.2
crt co
C
^
rH
>-3
bD
<!
CX
C/D
1963
1964
-H>
O
>
"ZZ
C
,0
& 3
r
?!i
*H
^
fi
£ 1
^
i
,H
>i
£ S 4j- £
rH
bD
C
^
^
t-3
rH
-p
>
0
tlO
&
-p
>
5 3 * 8 £
43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76 51 51 60 57
_ _ _ + _ _ + - + + + _
+
47 labor market areas^
&,
3 % 8 £ &
rH
3
t-3
1
JD
0)
(J4
bD
2
<ij
1
^
cd
S
Pn -P
Q)
0
CO O
I
1
^H
>»
a erf
<a^ S
1964
>
O
S
1
i
3
'-a
O
<D
Q
1
rH
P
"-a
54 64 68 70 40 32
_ _ _ + - -
£ r j Q h £ - i ^ £ j r - l b O Q H - P ! > 0
a j a > a J £ ^ a } 3 2 3 < D o o < D
Tl!y!?1if1Th7fe?c?sfe?
t»Da-P
>
0
C r Q
JH
h
>> d • H
^ ( D O O C D c d ^ c r f i ^ c d P P
< t J C O O S Q
H
3 P ^ S < ^ S
H
3
|
- 3
68 49 51 83 79 55 70 77
NORTHEAST REGION
- + - + + -
7
16 Buffalo
11 Newark
1 New York
21
+
_
_
+
Philadelphia*
8 Pittsburgh
23
+
_
-
+
_
_
+
+
+
_
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
_ +
- +
_
-
-
+ + +
•f
i-
-
+
_
+
+
_
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
- - + + - o + - + - -
+
+
+
+
+
+ - + - - + • * • - -»- + + + -
+
+
-H
-
+
+
-*-
+
- + + +
+ +
-1-
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
+ + -
-
-
+
_ _
+
-»--i--i-
+
__
+ +
--
+ + + - +
+
- - h
+ - h _
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ _
-!-+
+ +
+
+
+
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
18
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9
Chicago
. ........ * .
+
+
Cleveland **
Detroit . . • • . . « • • « • • • « . « « « « « « • • « • « • « • « « .
Kansas City
.
.. .. .
.
....... ......
+
+
+
+
St . Louis
_ +
- +
- + - - - + _
_ + _ _ _ + + - + - + - + _ + + _ _ + - + - + - + + _ + _ _ + - + * - - - +
_
+ -
+
+
+
:
!
; " :; : :
+>-++..+
_ - f _ + __ + +
+ + - + -I- + + +
•f _ _ + + _ + _
SOUTH REGION
20 Atlanta
12
17 Dallas
U Houston .
.
....
« • « •
+
-
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
_
+
-
+
+ -
-
+
-
WEST REGION
2
24
6 San Francisco
19 Seattle*
_
-
+
+
-
- _
+ i-
+ +
- + +
•*
+
:;
:;: :
+ + - + + + - +
- - - - H
- - - +
+
-
- h + - H
+ + -
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in August 1964.
**Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in August 1964.
•'•The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
rt
^
O
S
O>
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultura! Establishments
3 -month spans
1-month spans
1964
clay
1
C
rH
0,
%
I
o
1
8
o
a
I
C , Q ^ ^ ? > i C r H b D P < - P > 0
|c d O ) J I l Q - a h l ^ J| ^ ^ a > O O < D
-^Ct.2<!S! -3 -3<coo2:Q
1 C1 fi1 f-t1 JH1 >1 > C1 r H1 b1 D C1^ - H1 >1
0
Q
r
^
(
S
!
^
§
§
r
^
r
and glass products. .. ............
- o
0
+
o
o
+
-
+ - + o - - - - - - 0
4-
+
+ + +
- 4 - 4 -
+
-
-+
0 +
-_
+-+
+ +
0 4 -
Machinery
4-
Transportation equipment
44-
Textile mill products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing •• ..
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastics products
••
.•
......
4-
- +
0 +
4- 4 + 0
0 0
0 0
+ 0
+
+
0
O
+
+
o
- 4 - 4 - 0
- 4 - 4 -
-
+
0 4 - 4 -
-
0 + +
+
+
o
O
+
0
+
- +
000
4 - 4 . _
-0
- 4 - 4 - 0
o
+
+ -
Federal government
State and local government
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
444-
^
8i
2
1a
C ^ Q f H ^ > a C r H b o a 4 - P > O
bfl
- | - > > O C ^ ^ r H > > C r H b O a
0
1
1
+ 4-4-
o
o
+
0
0
4-
4-
+
0
44-
44-
44-
44-
444-
4-
0
+
-
1
1
1
1
1
1
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
44444-
4 - f 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - +4-
44-
44-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - f
-00
44-
4-4-
44-
+
+
+
4-4-
4-
44-
0
4-
44-
444-
444-
4-
4-
40
40
4-
f-
_
4-
O
0
0
;4-4-1-4-4-4-44+ 0-4-O+-4-0
1
75 60 50 48 40 63 48 73 75 85 80 78 80 68
- _ _
+ + 4 - 4
- 0 0 - - °
4-4-4- + + -
0
Mining
44444-
O
Sf £
-p
_ _ - 4 - 4 - 0 - f 4-4-4- + O - _
O
4-
4-
^
I
>»
+
+
4-
^
bD
1
J-i
1964
_
0
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
^
rH
Jun-Sep
bO
1
1963
75 48 45 65 42 70 43 83 77 63 60 70 77 43
+ o
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Stone
rH
Sep-Oct
1963
30 industry components
+ 44 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
+
_ 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
_ _ 4 -
+
+
0
-
4- 4-4+ 4 0
0
+
+-
- - - 4 + - +
_ 4 - + +
4 +
-+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
0
+
44444-
44444-
44444-
0
444-
444-
444-
+
+
+
+
44-
44-
+
O
4-
0
4-
4+
_
+
_ _ + + +
+
+
+
+
0
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
1
1
1
l
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D47) Index of Industrial Production
3 -month spans
1-month spans
1963
24 industry components
r—1
3
>-*
bfl
3
<J
C
rH
ft
Q)
C/}
-P
O
O
>
O
"Z
O
O
Q
ft
-H>
>
C r a ^ r W > > C r H h C f t - P > 0
C d Q [J . Q <l 3 P i Ka l l J J J< Q J O O Q )
~ 3 &
- i S
i 2
3
~ 3
^ C O O I 2 Q
l
1
3
•~3
J
*~i
t»0
J
•*$
1963
1964
<U
C/D
O .O
O
Z
O C
1
P
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
•+•
4-
O
1
Q f H ^ > l C r H b f l f t - »
Q i - 3 t i H S < < S
|
J
1
>
1
>
- 3 ^ « J j C O O 2 :
73 69 58 65 50 77 58 79 71 83 71 62 73 75
All industrial production
1
rH faD ft
3 rf <U
1-3 <J c/}
i
i
i
t-i
>s C
1964
4°
b
O
I
rH
>
O
2:
i
bO
O
(D
Q
i
ft
•S4 ^ ^ •? •§ w
niiiniiiii
88 90 77 73 71 77 69 83 83 92 88 79 83 75
-f-
DURABLE GOODS
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products •
Fabricated metal products
'
•
4-4-
"
+
+
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
.
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber.
Clay glass and stone
Lumber and products
. . .
4-
O
...
4-4-
44-
4-
+
+
+
4-
4-
°
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
144-
444"
4—
f-
—
41-
+
4h
444-
—
4-
4-
f-
+
4-
-
-
-
-
4- NA
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4>
4-
4-
f
f-
h
4-
+
+
^
. . .. .. . . .
f
4- NA
Furniture and fixtures
4-
4-
>
—
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-4-
\-
4-
(-
4-
h
f-
n>
NONDURABLE GOODS
Textile, apparel, and leather
4- 4- 4- 444 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- 4- 4- — —
Apparel products
Paper and printing
Paper and products .
Printing a,nd publishing
......
Chemicals and products
•
.
—
44-
_
_f_
_
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
-f.
_
+
-
4-
4- NA NA
4-4-
4- NA
NA NA
-j.-f-.f-
f
-f.
-f.
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 1- —
4-
f
-
-
4-
+
f4-
-4-
44-
4- 44- NA
4- NA NA
4- NA NA
.
NA
+
f
4-
4-
r
f
^
44-
f
-
f4-
f4-
4- 4- NA
4- NA NA
4-
•
—
4-
4-
4-
—
O
4-
4- NA
+ NA
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4-44— 4 - 4 - 4 - 4+
_
+
+
+
+
O
4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - NA NA
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
f
—
4-
+
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
4-
-
NA
4-4-4-
NA NA
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-4-
Tobacco products
4-
O
4-
4-
-
4-
-
- NA
NA NA
MINERALS
Coal
Metal mining
O
4-
—
4-
4-4-
4-
4-4-
(•
I-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
—
1-
4-
f-
—
-NA
0
f
0
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA = not available;
•"•The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industryare used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
00
(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
5-month spans
1-month spans
1963
1964
Percent rising
<
+->
4-
4-
_
444-
-
4-
Other food stores
Family apparel stores
44-
444-
444-
444-
Furniture stores
Building material dealers
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Drug and proprietary stores
0
4-
44-
4-
-
40
4-
440
-
+•
•h
f
+•
4444-
- 4f 4- 4fr-
+
h
-
Other durable goods stores
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
mined.
44-
i
f-<
i
f~i
i
>
^ <aJ
-3^><<C/)O2
CD ^
i i
£>s C
~3ti-.!S<<S
|
i i i i
i—) bfl Pi -H
- 4 - - 4 - 4 - 0 4 - 4 -
4+
44-
f44-
i444-
-
o 0 CD
0 2; Q
I
1
cd
\
CD
I
CD
I C/)
62 75 67 71 54 69 58 88 81 79 81 90 79
4-
4-
4-
4
4
-
4- - 4- 4- 4- - 4 - - 4 - - 0 4
- 4 - 4 - _ - 4 - + + • » • - - 4- 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4- - - + 4- 4 - Q 4 - 4 - - -
+
-
4-
+•
44-
444-
4-
4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4- - -h - o
- + - + - + + 0 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
444-
- 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - _
4 - i - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 .
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - _
4.
_
4-
PH
c
4•^
>
0
0
CD
1 1 S ^3
^ CD
J
? *? °
>, C rH
Cd
S
Pn
<d
>
54
44-
44-
44-
4-4-44-1-4-
44-
44-
4-
4-
+
4-
_
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
44-
444-
4444-
4444-
bfl
4-
4-
4-
4 - - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 4- 4 - - 4 - 4 - - + 4 - 4 4- 4 - 4 - - Q 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4- + - - + - + + +
0 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- _ 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 -
44-
Department stores
Men ' s wear stores
l
i
£)
67 65 25 58 54 77 44 71 52 52 67 67 52 56
4-
Variety stores
Q
i
C
Dec-Ma;
»?
i
O
Oct-Mai
rH
^
a
1
Apr-Sej
C
i 8i S1
t
Jan-Jun
1964
Feb-Jul
1963
24 retail store components
4-
4-
-
4-
44-
444-
4-
4-
4444-
4O 44- 44- 40 44-
4-
4444-
44-
4-
4-
4-
444-
•h
44-
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
o
4
4-
4-
4-
4-4-4-
4-
44-
4-4-44- 4- - - 4-
4-
O
144-
444-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
44-
4-
444-
-
4-
444-
rt
^
^-..
O
4-
0
4-
-4-44- 4- -
0
4-4-44- - 44-4-44-4-404-4-
44444-
o
l-t
o
444444-
4-
before the direction of change
is deter-
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT 0, SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D58) Index of Wholesale Prices, All Manufacturing
5-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1963
23 manufacturing industries
1-1 bD CX +>
d ^ <u o
-D <; co o
i
i
i
i
7*
•-a
3
"-J
3
<!
<U
c/D
>
o
•z,
i
&1
0
O
&
0
C
£>
1*
f-,
^ s C r H t k D D ^ - P
>
0
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
|c
3 << La >D yOo 2< :i Q
>
- d3<( i ^> . j Si <i ci iJ iSJ !d ^d >^ -: D
i
i
i
48 59 59 76 70 61 59 63 46 63 44 46 67 65
0
+
-
0
+
-
-
+ o -
-
0
+
+
-
-
i
i
Q( U» -o 3J tc i UH aS l <C; XS (j -r 3i t ^~ r o^ <^ i Cj cD oCo J2 O:
0
_
+
_
0
+
--+
+
+
0-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+ -
-
-
1964
1963
00
i—1
;=!
>-3
X)
M
^J
<ij
fn
Ou
Q)
CO
fn
-P
0
O
>j .
>
O
^
d
O
0)
Q
rH
p3L,
^
dj
S
*~2
'"S
g ^ S ^ & S ^ ^ ^ o S S
^^ii^^r^i^^^g
r
M
j QP ) H O- P
O >( 0
D £a , } £ Q> ) f o- Ji fM - - ' t> C^ nS P d3
• a j c O O ^ Q ' - a P ^ S - ^ S 1 " ^ ' " 3
52 52 70 74 72 70 74 72 67 70 54 56 52 61
+
DURABLE GOODS
Miscellaneous machinery • • .
.
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
.*
Miscellaneous products
...
...
- 0
+
0 0
o
-
+
-t-
+
o
+ + +
i-
+
o + + +
+ - + o
_ _ + -k-
-
0
_ _ _ + -k+
+
0
Cotton products
o
-
+ + +
Manmade fiber textile products
+
+
+
0
0
-k+
-
o -
Pulp paper and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products....
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
mined.
0
+
-k+
00
+
+ +
+ +
+
+0
+ +
_ _
- + +
+
o
o
+
\+
o
+
+
_
o
+
_
o
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
OO
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+ + + +
+ + + + + +
o - - f -
o + o
+
-
- + +
+ o -
I-
t-
+
-k-
+
o
0
_
+ __
+
h
+ _ + + +
g
o
+ _ _ _ _ _ + +
0
-t+
-
o
-k-k0
+ o
0
0 0
+
0 0
0
+
-
+
-k-
+
+ -
+
o
NONDURABLE GOODS
Processed foods
-
+
+
o
+
0
+
+ 0 - - - + + 0 + +
00
+ + -
+
0--+
0
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
0+ 0
+-+-
- - - + -
_
+
_
—
+
0
+
+
-
-
+
1- +
+ + +
+ +
+
+ + +
+ +
+
+
+ o + +
-
0
0
+
+
+
+
+
- - - - - -
-
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
before the direction of change
is deter-
Cyclical Patterns
50
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Index
- Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
.........
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
----July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr, 1958)
- May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
0
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak,
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24. Mfrs. new orders
mach. and equip, indus
- no
100'
-190
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+42
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+ 42
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100" For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
51
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Apr, 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
Index
I I I I I 1 I I I II I I MI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II
-iiio
-<- Reference trough dates
150
140
13. New business
incorporations
.
. •-
,~
>1*. V.
-105
• *. « .
• * r\*
•' V/ * VVx / \
••**• ' **
130
100*
120
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
-"80-
MOO
80 L0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
+42
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For sseries
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarrter is
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
52
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Index
I I I MI I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I MI I
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to presenti (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
- Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
Index
II II I M l I I I I I I I I II I II I
43. Unemployment rate
total /inverted./
Reference trough dates
nor
41. Employees in nonagr
establishments
55. Wholesale pri
farm prod, and foods
J
95
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
42
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4m
53
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I I | 1 1 I I 1 1 I I 11 11 I I ! I I | I I I I I 11 I I I I 1 1 1 1 ir[T
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to presenf (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
0
Index
- Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
Index
51. Bank debits outside NYC
100
95L
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Momns
Months from
rrorn reference
reference uougns
troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Montns
Months rrom
from reference irougns
troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serie
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
7>ee table 2 for latest "month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
54
CHART 41
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
. 1949)
-j. 1954)
>r. 1958)
. 1961)
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
I I I I I ] I I I I I I I! I I I
120r
no *ioo
67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans
64, Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
90L
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100" For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Last 2 quarters anticipated.
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
M I II 1 M I I !II1 I III I I I I II II II M I III I| I I I | M I ||
PERIOD COVERED
1949
1954
\Jndex
nor
index
•<-Specific trough dates
From specific trough dates to 45 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus.
bldgs.3
1958
1961
111ITTTTTI III II IITTTTI I ] MM 1 1 III l l j i 1 1 1 I |l II
-<-Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
105
*100
24. Mfrs.' new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
100L
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C«
2
^ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
l i I l I I l i I I l II Il Il I l i iI
PERIOD COVERED
•^-Specific trough dates
From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
1958
1961
MM I I III I I II I I III I II Ml II I II I I II Ml I II Ml
•<-Specific trough dates
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
100
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series witf
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is sei
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1*
57
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
-r115
MINIMI
I
I I I I II I III I I I I I I I I I I I II I
41. Employees in nonagr
establishments
I—<-Specific trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]
-110
100
M i l l M i l l M i l l II I I I M l
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
^ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table /.-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of "3" or more
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is
used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Ifonths
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in—
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24.
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manuf aclnirers ' new orders, machin-
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
42
41
41
(NA)
39.7
20.6
i
95.6
29.3
27.9
88.1
37.1
56.6
72.6
52.3
40.0
102.8
104.0
119.6
103.3
117.5
183.3
94.8
63.7
38.9
101.0
103.6
86.4
101.8
105.4
133.3
42
42
190.8
164.9
116.6
166.2
42.1
43.8
74.8
67.8
199.2
139.2
170.1
124.7
96.1
82.0
117.0
116.4
127.3
110.9
41
42.1
98.4
32.3
37.8
204.7
128.1
111.4
104.0
135.8
41
42
39
42
42
42
74.5
17.3
78.0
(NA)
119.8
70.3
102.5
110.2
75.0
(NA)
202.2
82.8
99.4
65.9
5.7
(NA)
110.1
56.1
63.8
(NA)
47.1
(NA)
53.3
79.0
60.0
118.6
218.6
(NA)
53.9
107.1
120.0
98.9
95.5
97.0
161.6
80.6
130.2
59.2
103.6
95.3
169.9
97.0
131.9
67.3
97.3
101.4
140.2
98.6
103.2
118.8
141.2
102.0
148 . 5
101.5
42
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
171.3
111.1
114.7
128.
42
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
118.5
12:
42
42
42
39
39
42
42
42
84.2
(NA)
109.2
(NA)
(NA)
105.1
(NA)
106.3
92.2
(NA)
103.1
112.5
114.6
123.3
114.5
108.8
79.1
(NA)
82.7
86.9
98.9
85.9
89.6
89.2
91.3
(NA)
95.2
78.8
98.1
64.3
78.6
86.8
118.9
(NA)
144.9
140.2
(NA)
137.9
141.2
129.5
111.7
137.5
135.7
137.1
124.1
143.2
134.2
127.4
102.1
40.9
96.0
119.9
108.2
125.1
121.4
116.2
102.9
64.2
111.0
116.5
109.6
129.0
119.7
110.1
10£
102
121
122.
116.
136.
122.
120.
42
65.1
86.6
76.1
87.3
108.4
107.7
109.0
101.1
100.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production. .............
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers...
52 . Personal income
54 . Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
1
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
39
45
48.0
54.8
90.8
100.2
54.3
41.4
55.4
64.7
(NA)
(NA)
125.1
129.5
128.9
107.9
91.9
94.6
119
127
42
41
41
75.6
(NA)
(NA)
90.1
(NA)
(NA)
84.8
(NA)
(NA)
81.7
83.4
107.6
113.2
(NA)
156.5
111.3
150.3
(NA)
114.9
116.2
153.4
99.7
103.1
128.2
98
111
137
39
77.7
87.7
93.3
55.4
(NA)
134.1
130.0
103.3
93
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the pes
had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A fo
the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
•'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (actua
expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964).
Cyclical Patterns
59
Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or
more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
beginning in —
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
+4.6
+36.5
-9.9
-10.3
-49.3
-20.2
+7.7 +17.8
+4.1
+27.9 +16.4 +32.3
+8.3 +141.2 +173.3
42
42
+170.4
+4.1
+68.5 +67.9
-57.9
-57.9
41
July
1921
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
-2.8
-12.3
-39.8
+4.4
+12.9
+45.5
+3.3
-2.5
+51.9
' N
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
?.>. Average workweek of production workers,
1,2
41
41
+5.2
(NA)
(NA)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
5
3. Index of industrial materials prices
4. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+48.2
+96.3
-11.0
+7.3
-29.9
+32.6 +36.0
+20.0 +11.3
+54.4 +41.7
-62.8 +215.9
(NA)
+48.5
+15.0
+32.4 +45.8
41
42
39
42
42
42
+2.9
+2.8
(NA)
(NA)
+62.0
+68.0
+38.4
+22.2
+39.3
(NA)
+94.1
-1.2
-4.2 -19.5
-28.4
(NA)
-92.3 +33.3
(NA)
(NA)
-16.0 +157.6
-42.4 +90.2
-30.3
+61.3
(NA)
(NA)
-14.2
+58.3
+14.8
-15.7
+22.2
-1.8
+55.5
+7.3
+10.3
-37.8
+21.6
-2.9
+34.3
-3.0
+38.2 +11.0
-10.5 +21.5
+28.7 +63.6
+7.2
+4.0
+60.6 +31.9
+6.4
+13.4
42
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+95.4 +19.3
+29.9 +35.9
42
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-2.5
-34.6
+16.5
42
42
42
39
39
42
42
42
+22.3
(NA)
+59.8
+25.3
+26.0
+35.6
+37.8
+1-3.3
+6.1
(NA)
+25.6
+15.1
+14.9
+27.3
+14.5
+8.8
-17.6
(NA)
-12.1
-13.4
-3.3
-21.0
-11.2
-10.8
+33.5
+90.5
+97.4
+56.4
+36.2
+68.5
+59.8
+65.0
+32.7
(NA)
+112.1
+59.2
(NA)
+65.1
+58.5
+58.9
+17.7
+187.3
+48.2
+41.8
+25.9
+49.1
+40.2
+27.4
+5.7
-5.4
+5.5
+22.2
+11.5
23.2
+21.7
+17.0
+7.3 +10.1
+13.0 +35.3
+29.2 +28.9
+19.5 +23.4
+14.0 +18.3
+33.1 +33.7
+20.1 +21.6
+11.8 +23.1
42
+3.0
-5.1
-18.3
+20.5
+14.8
+13.4
+9.9
39
45
+39.8
+59.5
+30.2
+43.6
-38.2 +223.1
-52.9 f276.9
(NA)
(NA)
+56.3
+61.8
+35.0
+13.0
+14.4
+17.7
+28.5
+36.3
42
41
41
-61.0
(NA)
(NA)
-12.3
(NA)
(NA)
-13.8 +11.4
(NA) +40.8
(NA) f!25.2
+9.1
(NA)
+67.8
+15.7
+61.0
+91.4
-6.2
+12.5
+24.3
+6.9
+48.4 +27.2
-4.0
+12.5
+33.4
39
-27.9
0.0
(NA)
+33.6
+36.2
. Index of new private housing units author -
+26.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Number of employees in nonagri cultural
'. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
). Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
5. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
+1.6
+0.1
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
, Index of labor cost per unit of output,
, Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
-3.1
-28.9
+19.7
+0.4
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak
id been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for
le reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
icpenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964).
Cyclical Patterns
60
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, and
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter.
See also MCD footnote
to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
specific
trough1
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
July
1921
-97.8 -100.0
(NSC)
*99.8 *99.0 100.2
44
(NA)
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
38
42
42
46
44
"45.2
-86.3
(NA)
*99.2
---71.3
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units author-
45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) -211.6 -106.2 -99.2
44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
91.3
(NA)
82.8
78.8
88.3
81.0
76.9
87.2
118.4
(NA)
143.5
133.5
(NA)
141.3
171.0
132.0
111.6
(NA)
133.5
130.5
118.6
135.0
146.9
(NSC)
69.1
-"-114.6 -108.2 24.6
---106.8 ---110.5 -70.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
170.0 (NSC) 47.5
-100.8 -76.6
75.6
100.5
183.9
47.4 (NSC)
37.7
68.5 (NSC)
(NA) -107.2 -90.3
47.8 ---155.6 ---186.3
105.0 *135.1 *65.1
(NA)
3
92.9 139.0
-138.1 96.2
*101.0 99.2
---122.5 137.3
*92.9 99.8
*96.5
126.5
94.6
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 . Sales of retail stores
42
39
42
39
39
44
44
40
44
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
-105.4
-67.5
-109.2
-121.6
-"-110.1
---122.6
---116.1
114.7
-103.0 107.''
*78.2 96.
-109.0 119
-112.4 12;'
-107.6 1]
119.4 31<
*108.3 11
*109.4 11
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
-91.3 ---96.6 -105.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
*112.3 *108.2 -116.2
(NA) (NSC) (NSC)
(NSC)
(NA) (NSC)
(NA) *111.1 ---112.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
102.9 (NSC) (NSC)
38
42
42
46
44
-"-+15.4 *+7.9
-+4.5
+2.2
+20.5
+6.5
--+4.1
*+5.2
+6^
-+118 . 5-"-+82.6 -+40 . 1+154.4
(NA) +52.1 (NSC) +35.9 3 +49.
*+23.6 ---+42.9 *+20.5 -+12. 8 -52.8 +15.9 (NSC) "+51. 7 +12.
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) -+15. 2 ---+6.8 -+9.4 +4.'
*+46.2 +99.6 (NSC) +211.9 -12.5 -+87.4 *+109.6 -''-+48.1 +52
---+75.0 -+36.7 ---+7.3 +103.3 +62.5 ;-+100.3 -+24.7 -+17. 4 +9
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) '-+180.1 *+89.9 -+36.7 +36
44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
29. Index of new private housing units author(NA)
(NA) -+56.3 +26
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
42
39
42
39
39
44
44
40
*+32.6 -+12. 0 *+11.5 +33.5 +32.7 +17.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) +90.1
(NA) +169.6
-"-+66.1 *+31.7 -+24.9 +77.5 +112.2 +48.2
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +56.4 +59.2 +35.3
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +31.1
(NA) +21.5
*+32.8 -+15. 3 -+15. 9 +64.7 +61.7 +41.6
(NA)
(NA)
+116.2
(NA)
+133.8 +68.1
+20.7 (NSC) (NSC) +70.0 +63.4 (NSC)
-+9.1 -+7.6 +1C
*+6l.9 -+54.2 +39
*+21.3 -+27.2 +28
*+24.9 *+l6.4 +23
-+14. 3 "+12. 5 +18
*+24.2 +20.8 3 +22.
"+25.6 "+17. 6 +23.,
+20.6 -+13. 7 +24.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the mon-t
indicated in the first column.
The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered :
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. l). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
•'•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough 1
the latest month shown in table 2.
The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by £
asterisk (*). Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the hig
preceding that low.
Technical Papers and Background Materials
Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores:
Descriptions and Procedures
Max Shor, Business Division
Allan Young, Economic Research and Analysis Division
Bureau of the Census
INTRODUCTION
The monthly volume of retail sales is regarded by
the business analyst as a significant indicator of current
economic conditions. Retail sales absorb a substantial
portion of the disposable income available to the
American consumer. The amount of such sales (in
total and by the 24 kinds of retail business for which
these figures are compiled) is of vital interest to all
Business firms involved in the production and distriution of these retailed products.
Retail sales data are available on a monthly basis
m 1935 to date.
During the post-World War II
iod, this monthly series exhibited a pattern which
ncided with other direct measures of aggregate
onomic activity whose movements are used to define
3 business cycle. However, this series was little
rected by the 1945 recession and levelled off rather
an declined during the recession of 1948-49. Its
ming at other business cycle turning points is pre3nted in the following table showing leads (-) and
igs (+) in retail sales at business cycle turning points
ince 1935:
Business cycle peak month
y 1937
'/ember 194-8
Ly 1953
ly 1957
y I960
Business cycle trough month
me 1938
ctober 1945
ctober 1949
ugust 1954
pril 1958
ebruary 1961
Lead (-) or lag (+)
at peak month
+4
No specific cycle
No specific cycle
-4
+1
_1
Lead (-) or lag (+)
at trough month
_1
No specific cycle
No specific cycle
-7
-1
+2
When using retail store sales as an indicator of
urrent business conditions, we must consider not only
ts past cyclical record at peaks and troughs but also
;he degree to which the current month-to-month changes
may be reflecting the underlying cyclical movements as
distinguished from erratic or irregular movements.
In addition, it is useful to consider in some detail the
adjustments made to the unadjusted data to arrive at
the seasonally adjusted series. And, of course, what
constitutes a retail transaction, how the unadjusted
data are compiled, and to what extent the data adequately
represent all retail activities must also be considered.
DIFFICULTIES IN APPRAISING CURRENT
MONTH-TO-MONTH CHANGES
Month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted retail
sales often consist largely of erratic movements that
obscure underlying cyclical movements. However, over
longer spans cyclical movements cumulate and dominate
the erratic or irregular movements which tend to offset
one another. (See "Sales of retail stores," chart 1,
page 15, Business Cycle Developments.) "MCD" (months
for cyclical dominance) thus provides an estimate of
the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in retail sales. For the period 1953-63,
MCD for the retail sales series is "2", indicating
that changes over spans of 2 months or longer usually
reflect cyclical movements in the series, while changes
over 1-month spans tend to be dominated by the irregular movements.
Other conditions also cause difficulty in evaluating
current month-to-month changes in the retail sales
series. Since monthly seasonal factors for the current
year are preliminary, and because advance reporting
estimates are used for the current month (see the
description below on collection of data), the retail
" sales estimates for the most recent months tend to be
even more irregular than the historical series, which
is based upon final seasonal factors and final estimates
of unadjusted retail sales. Because of these conditions,
the significance of changes over recent 2-month spans
NOTE: Several people have provided the authors with
valuable assistance. This paper was written at the Bureau of the Census under the direction of Julius Shiskin.
Gerald Donahoe made a major contribution to the new
Census Bureau seasonal adjustment of retail sales and
assisted in preparing this paper. Murray Dessel reviewed the paper. Geraldine Censky and Marie Wann
provided editorial review.
61
Technical Papers and Background Materials
62
may also tend to be obscured by the irregular component. For purposes of current analysis, therefore,
it is often necessary to use changes over 3-month
spans to sufficiently reduce the effects of the irregular
component.
More details concerning MCD are given in BCD, appendix C, and in reference 3. (See references at end of
this paper.)
SEASONAL AND TRADING-DAY ADJUSTMENTS
Seasonally adjusted monthly data for total retail
store sales are obtained by summing the estimated
sales of 24 different kinds of retail business, each of
which has been individually adjusted for trading-day
and seasonal fluctuations. Motor vehicle sales are
also adjusted for variation in the annual introduction
date of new models. Similarly, some of the other
kinds of retail business have been adjusted for variation
in the dates of Easter, Labor Day, and Thanksgiving.
These 24 kinds of business are shown in Business
Cycle Developments, table 6, direction of change for
sales of retail stores.
Monthly estimates of seasonally adjusted total retail
sales and sales by kind of business were recently revised for the period 1953-63 (5).1 The revised seasonally
adjusted total retail sales data for the years 1960-63
was included in Business Cycle Developments, beginning
with the September 1963 issue. The revised data for
1953-60 was shown in appendix F of the October 1963
issue. The unadjusted monthly data, trading-day factors, seasonal factors, and seasonally adjusted data
for 1953-63 are shown in the table, page 64. Types of
variations for which the retail sales series have been
adjusted are described below.
Month-to-month changes in unadjusted retail sales
are greatly affected by seasonal influences that recur
with approximately the same impact and timing every
year. In many kinds of retail business the most important seasonal influence is the effect of Christmas
upon sales in December. For some other kinds of
business, the seasonal sales pattern arises not so much
from customs or institutions, such as Christmas, but
more directly from the effects of climate in various
parts of the United States. Such kinds of business
include gasoline service stations, tire and battery
dealers, farm equipment dealers, and lumber and building materials dealers whose sales increase each spring
and in early summer and then decrease in the fall.
Seasonal variations were estimated with the X-9
version of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment
program (see BCD technical paper No. 1 for a detailed
description).
In addition to the effect of seasonal influences that
recur in the same month every year, there are two
other types of variation that are linked to the calendar.
One of these, trading-day variation, arises because of
different combinations of the days of the week in the
same month in different years. For example, consider
the month of May: In 1963 there were five Wednesdays,
Thursdays, and Fridays and four Saturdays, Sundays,
Mondays, and Tuesdays while in 1962 there were five
1
Numbers in parenthesis indicate references cited.
See references at end of paper.
Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays and four Fridays,
Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays. If more sales are
made on Fridays than on Tuesdays, May sales would
tend to be higher in 1963 than in 1962 when the reverse
occurred, other things being equal. Trading-day variation has been estimated from information contained
within the monthly series using techniques developed
by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (1) and by the Bureau of the Census (6).
The second type of calendar variation arises from
holidays, where the effect of the holiday upon monthly
sales may shift between adjacent months, depending
upon the date of the holiday. A prime example is the
increase in sales of apparel associated with Easter
Easter variation has also been estimated from information contained within the data (1). Beginning with
December 1963 data, adjustments are also made for
variation in sales in August and September arising
from the date of Labor Day and for variation in sales
in November and December arising from the date of
Thanksgiving.
Besides the above three types of variation related
to the calendar (i.e., seasonal, trading-day, and holidays) another type of variation affects monthly retail
sales patterns; namely, the effect of the date fixed to
introduce new-model automobiles. Although the introduction of new models might be termed a custom or
institution, the variation it causes in sales cannot be
related to the calendar as simply as Christmas o.
Easter, since each manufacturer can and does alte,
from year to year, such variables as the date of intr
duction and the extent of changes in style and mecha
cal features. In addition, the manufacturer atten.!
to anticipate the market for old models during
changeover period.
To minimize the effect on
estimate of the underlying cyclical movement, anattev
is made to adjust the motor vehicle monthly rei
sales series for the timing of new-model introduction
Variation related to new-model introductions w,
estimated by adapting the X-9 program. First, t
series for motor vehicle retail sales was rearrange
so that low points associated with the new-model intrc
ductions occurred at the same point for each yea :
The X-9 program was used to estimate recurre
variation in this specially arranged series. Ne:
the series was recast into its original order and *
X-9 program was applied again, this time to estim
recurrent variation related to the calendar. The fi
seasonal adjustment factor was then taken to be ;
combination of the model-year and calendar-year factc
isolated by the X-9 adjustments.
Summary measures describing the elements maki
up the month-to-month variations in total retail sal
are presented here for the period 1953-63. The avera
month-to-month percent changes (without regard
sign) are as follows:
Unadjusted series, 0
Trading-day adjusted series
Trading-day and seasonally
adjusted series, CI
2
7.40
6.92
0.80
2
After adjusting selected kinds of business for East*
variation. Before such adjustments were made, tl
average change in the unadjusted series was 7 . 5 0 p e i
cent.
Technical Papers and Background Materials
Trading-day component3
Seasonal component, S_ .
Irregular component^
Cyclical component, C
1.96
6.75
0.65
0.43
Details concerning CI, C, and I and their relation to
MCD are presented, for retail sales and other indicators,
in appendix C of Business Cycle Developments.
Note that the average change in the unadjusted series
is 7.40 percent. After removing the trading-day and
seasonal variation, the average month-to-month change
is reduced to 0.80 percent. If smoothing techniques
(such as MCD described above) are used, it is possible
to further disentangle the series by decomposing the
seasonally adjusted series into its cyclical and irregular
components. When the cyclical component of the series
finally emerges, it has an average month-to-month
percent change of only 0.43 percent.
The summary measures of month-to-month changes
show that seasonal and trading day variations are very
large relative to the month-to-month cyclical changes
in retail sales. Removal of these variations greatly
facilitates cyclical analysis, since the underlying cyclical changes can then be detected over 2- or 3-month
spans using MCD techniques. If these variations are not
^-emoved, cyclical changes can not be detected in spans
less than 12 months (comparisons for same month
r ago). Even for 12-month spans, trading-day and
lay variations will at times continue to obscure
yclical movements.
addition to the variations described above for
adjustments are made, monthly data on retail
may also be affected by extreme or unusual
ier conditions. The seasonal adjustment process
adjust for the fact that, on average, February
s volume will typically differ from that of March
July.
The process does not take into account,
/yever, the effects of atypical weather conditions in
particular month (such as an extremely heavy snowcorm
in February, or unseasonably hot or cold weather
Tii
ly). Relationships between retail sales and extreme
factors are also being investigated (4). Results
"^ssarily based on the limited broad national
montriiy
data available, reveal statistically significant correlations between unusual weather and retail
sales for only a few months of the year. Two relatively
new retail series—one providing national weekly statistics and the second, monthly geographic area sales
lata—-may prove useful in future work in this field,
t present, to the extent they exist, the effects of
rpical weather have not been eliminated from the
'.sonally adjusted series and contribute, therefore,
the erratic nature of the month-to-month changes
•etail store sales.
'ELOPMENT OF MONTHLY RETAIL SALES DATA
nion of Data
63
ments of all sizes and types throughout the country.
Prior to 1951, the series was derived by applying
monthly trend estimates, compiled from reports by
a small fixed sample of retail stores canvassed by
the Census Bureau, to benchmark quarterly estimates
of retail sales developed on the basis of reported
changes in sales tax collections, Internal Revenue
Service income-tax data compilations, and other
sources (2).
In the current sample survey, business establishments are classified as retail if they are primarily
engaged in selling merchandise for personal, household,
or farm consumption. They are further classified by
kind of retail business, on the basis of principal commodities sold. Retail stores in the sample are classified in accordance with the descriptions shown in the
1957 Standard Industrial Classification Manual, issued
by the U.S. Bureau of the Budget.
The classification unit is the individual establishment
at a separate physical location, and not the entire
company or legal entity which owns or operates the
establishment. Thus, only those establishments of a
given firm which are classified as retail are included
in the survey. Each of these is assigned to its appropriate kind of retail business classification.
Nature of the Sample
The Census Bureau's current sample of retail establishments, on which the monthly sales estimates are
based, is composed as follows:
1. All large retail organizations which, in the 1958
Census of Business, were reported as operating 11
or more retail stores in the United States are
included each month. These organizations report
the combined sales of all their retail stores in the
United States. For those firms with stores in more
than one kind of retail business, the reported figures
are prorated on the basis of the percentage distribution of the firm's total sales by the different kinds
of business reported in the 1958 Census of Business.
(For purposes of developing estimates by geographic
area, figures are also obtained each month for a
sample of individual establishments of these firms.)
2. All other large retail stores (i.e., those with an
annual sales volume in excess of $5 million in 1954)
are included each month, regardless of their location
in the United States.
3. The remaining retail stores are represented by
stores located in 233 Census sample areas. These
Census sample areas, generally consisting of combinations of two or three counties, were chosen
randomly (with known probability of selection), one
from each of 233 primary strata. The sample of
establishments within these areas consists of the
following:
statistics on sales of retail stores, shown in
s Cycle Developments for 1951 to date, are
n estimates derived by the Bureau of the Census
s monthly sample survey of retail establish-
(a) All stores located anywhere in the Census
sample areas which meet certain minimum annual
sales criteria. These stores report in the survey each month.
th- of -month variation is included in the seasonal
>nt.
(b) All stores located in a sample of land segments called "area segments" (with known prob-
Technical Papers and Background Materials
64
SERIES 54, SALES OF RETAIL STORES, 1953 TO 1963
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Unadjusted data (million dollars)
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
12,903
12,213
13, H8
13,727
14,741
15,286
12,198
11,947
12,642
13,551
U,058
13,783
13,807
13,409
14,573
15,719
15,789
15,549
14,016
14,197
15,490
14,889
16,442
16,273
14,520
14,116
15,333
16,109
17,205
17,364
14,443
14,533
15,600
16,579
17,114
16,603
14,250
14,260
15,261
15,382
16,864
16,596
14,044
13,770
15,481
16,187
17,490
17,000
13,952
14,013
15,765
15,583
16,373
16,326
14,820
14,538
15,684
16,130
16,949
17,360
13,828
14,401
15,752
16,493
17,133
17,039
16,314
17,738
19,124
19,380
19,844
21,174
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
16,225
16,312
15,803
17,007
18,261
14,961
15,829
15,064
16,042
17,087
17,190
17,419
17,926
19,036
19,653
17,589
19,200
17,389
19,251
20,518
18,600
18,548
18,522
20,226
21,228
18,708
18,918
18,896
20,254
20,737
18,332
18,066
17,912
19,138
20,540
18,054
18,153
13,315
19,920
21,018
17,570
17,898
18,149
18,863
19,267
19,095
18,648
18,751
20,576
21,528
17,635
18,385
19,215
20,911
21,494
21,454
22,153
22 , 869
24,127
25,104
1953
1954
Trading-day adjustment factors (percent)
1953 ...
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
101.9
100.1
98.6
98.0
99.8
101.5
99.1
99.1
99.1
102.7
99.1
99.1
98.0
99.8
99.8
101.9
100.1
98.6
100.0
101.5
102.0
98.1
99.8
99.8
100.1
98.6
98.0
99.8
101.5
101.9
99.8
99.8
100.0
102.0
98.5
98.1
101.5
101.9
100.1
98.0
99.8
99.8
98.6
98.0
99.8
101.5
101.9
100.1
99.8
100.0
101.5
98.5
98.1
99.8
101.9
100.1
98.6
99.8
99.8
101.5
98.1
99.8
99.8
101.5
102.0
98.5
99.8
101.5
101.9
98.6
98.0
99.8
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
101.9
100.1
98.0
99.8
99.8
99.1
102.6
99.1
99.1
99.1
98.0
99.8
101.5
101.9
100.1
100.0
102.0
98.5
98.1
99.8
100.1
98.0
99.8
99.8
101.5
99.8
100.0
101.5
102.0
98.5
101.5
100.1
98.6
98.0
99.8
98.6
99.8
99.8
101.5
101.9
99.8
101.5
102.0
98.5
93.1
101.9
98.6
98.0
99.8
99.8
98.1
99.8
100.0
101.5
102.0
99.8
101.9
100.1
98.6
98.''
Seasonal adjustment factors (percent)
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
88.2
89.0
90.3
90.4
90.5
90.4
85.9
85.8
85.6
85.8
85.3
84.9
97.7
95.8
97.3
98.5
95.9
96.6
98.6
100.0
99.5
97.8
99.9
98.6
102.4
102.6
102.5
102.3
102.5
103.2
102.3
102.0
103.1
102.9
103.3
102.7
99.6
100.0
99.0
99.7
100.6
99.3
101.6
100.4
100.6
100.8
101.2
100.8
99.8
99.6
99.1
99.5
99.1
97.7
103.4
103.1
101.2
101.4
101.2
102.6
101.7
100.2
100.8
100.9
100.6
101.5
90.4
90.0
89.9
89.7
89.8
85.0
84.8
84.6
84.6
84.6
98.2
96.0
98.3
96.7
96.5
98.7
101.4
99.1
101.2
101.4
103.3
103.3
103.1
103.5
103.5
103.4
103.3
102.9
102.8
102.8
99.5
99.6
99.6
99.3
99.3
100.3
100.0
99.9
99.8
99.8
97.2
96.8
96.9
96.5
96.2
102.9
103.4
103.5
103.9
104.1
101.7
101.9
102.3
102.4
102.5
121.5'
120.7
121.0
120.8
121.9
11
r
i.
i;
12
12'v, --
Seasonally and trading-day adjusted data (million dollars)
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
H,352
13,712
H,765
15,495
16,329
16,659
14,325
14,055
14,896
15,370
16,635
16,374
14,418
14,020
15,005
15,663
16,453
16,319
14,218
13,991
15,255
15,516
16,493
16,535
14,167
13,957
15,260
15,771
16,534
16,517
14,146
14,272
15,126
15,797
16,820
16,476
14,090
13,991
15,404
15,744
16,799
16,746
14,017
13,996
15,418
15,826
16,967
16,853
14,007
14,073
15,677
15,906
16,841
16,745
14,060
14,081
15,715
15,933
16,782
16,662
13,855
14,406
15,652
16,106
16,699
17,048
13,719
14,671
15,531
16,193
16,647
17,605
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
17,613
13,097
17,942
18,990
20,387
17,752
18,200
17,965
19,139
20,374
17,858
18,178
17,971
19,320
20,350
17,827
18,557
17,811
19,389
20,276
17,995
18,320
18,003
19,585
20,200
18,134
18,312
18,098
19,311
20,486
18,154
18,113
18,234
19,658
20,719
18,249
18,195
18,373
19,671
20,666
18,121
13,207
18,371
19,844
20,426
18,209
18,298
18,494
19,837
20,716
17,680
13,080
18,775
20,112
20,558
17,692
18,00*
18,87<
20,25
21,0-
:
,
Technical Papers and Background Materials
ability of selection) within the Census sample
areas. The stores within these area segments
which meet certain annual sales criteria, are
called "special area segment stores" and report
in the survey each month. The remaining retail
stores in the area segments, consisting of the
smaller stores, generally report only once a year
on a rotation basis. These smaller establishments are requested, through personal annual
visits by Census field representatives, to report
sales figures for 2 consecutive months. The
canvass by Census field representatives of a
different set of about 1,900 area segments each
month of the year makes it possible to account
for the sales of new stores, regardless of size,
which have come into existence subsequent to
the initial selection of "large" stores in the
sample.
Definitions of Retail Sales
Retail businesses included in the survey report
total sales for the specified month (or 2 months, in the
;ase of smaller stores covered once annually). Both
:ash and credit sales are included, whether or not
payment was received during the month. Respondents
ire instructed to include sales taxes, excise taxes, and
'inancing charges, but to deduct refunds and allowances
r merchandise returns. Allowances for trade-ins
> not deducted, however.
?tail sales estimates derived from the monthly
V represent total sales and receipts of all estab>nts primarily engaged in retail trade, rather
'.nal sales to consumers. As a result, sales
, receipts at retail establishments for repairs
c«,v. rfiher services as well as sales of merchandise
to other businesses for resale or for business use.
On the other hand, they exclude sales to consumers
made by manufacturers, wholesalers, service establishments, or other businesses whose primary activity
is not classified as retail trade.
Development of Estimates
Three sets of estimates are developed for each
month. Each successive set of estimates is based on
additional information as it becomes available, thereby
providing estimates of improved statistical reliability.
Initially, a small subsample of the full-sample panel
described above is canvassed on an accelerated basis.
3y applying the month-to-month ratio of change in
•etail
sales of this subsample to the previous month's
r
ure for the full sample, by kind of retail business,
Vance" sales estimates are derived and issued about
lays after the close of each month. The data for the
t recent month shown in Business Cycle Developts are these advance estimates.
er second estimate is developed approximately
s after the survey month covered. It is a cornestimate, based on the full sample, and consists
sighted average of the following two estimates:
mple estimate for the current month, obtained
ciplying the current month's figure for each
panel member by its appropriate statistical
ased on its probability of selection) and sumse weighted figures; and (2) A ratio estimate
by multiplying the previous month's composite
65
estimate by the cur rent-to-previous-month ratio of
simple estimates obtained from the current monthly
panel of retail stores. Retail sales data appearing in
Business Cycle Developments for the second most
recent month are based on this "preliminary" fullsample estimate.
A third and final estimate for the survey month is
then derived. As indicated previously, the smaller
retail stores in each of the 12 monthly samples of
area segments report their sales totals for both the
current and the previous month. Hence, 1 month
after the "preliminary" full-sample estimate is developed for a given month, additional data become available
for that month (i.e., the previous month figures of the
subsequent month's panel of smaller stores). These
are used to develop a "final" composite estimate.
While use of this final estimate results in only a small
improvement in reliability of the monthly dollar volume
estimate, it does permit a significant improvement
in the accuracy of the estimated change between the 2
consecutive months. This estimation refinement was
instituted with the retail sales estimates for January
1960.
Limitations of Estimates
The three successive estimates for each month are
subject to various limitations which should be taken
into account by the data user. Except where indicated,
the specific effect of magnitude and direction on the
data is not known. Limitations, which result from
factors contributing to the differences observed among
successive estimates for the same survey month, are
summarized below:
1. The three estimates for each month are subject
to sampling variability which can be measured, since
each is based on a probability sample. The estimated
sampling variability of total monthly sales for all
retail stores is about 1.3 percent for the advance
subsample estimates and 1.1 percent for the full
sample estimates, both preliminary and final. This
means the chances are 2 in 3 that the "expected
value" will not vary from the sample estimate, in
either direction, by more than the percentage indicated. The "expected value" is the retail sales
total which would be obtained from a complete
enumeration of all retail establishments, using the
same techniques in collecting and processing the
data as were used in the sample survey.
The percentage change in total retail sales between the 2 most recent months, based on use of the
advance subsample estimate for the current month,
is subject to an estimated sampling variability of
about 0.6 percent for all retail stores combined.
The corresponding percentage change over 2 consecutive months, based on use of full-sample estimate
for both months, has an estimated sampling variability of approximately 0.2 percent. Estimates by
kind of business are subject to higher variability,
of course, than those specified above for all retail
stores combined.
2. The weighted figures of respondents reporting
in time for inclusion in the monthly estimates account
for about 90 percent (on the average) of the published
totals, for the two full sample estimates, and about
Technical Papers and Background Materials
66
75 percent for the advance subsample estimates.
To the extent that the retail sales experience of
nonrespondents differs from those reporting in the
survey, the estimates derived may be subject to
some bias.
3. Biases may also arise through the use of estimates by respondents when retail sales totals derived
directly from their records are not available. This
appears to be primarily a reporting problem in
developing advance estimates, since these are based
on data collected shortly after the end of the month,
at a time when store records relating to the month's
sales may not have been fully summarized.
4. The month-to-month ratio of change in retail
sales used in developing the advance estimate is
based on the experience of a fixed panel of respondents. It excludes the experience of retail stores
opened after the advance subsample was selected
(except for large retail firms reporting organizational sales totals). The subsample panel used for
May 1962 through January 1964 was selected from
retail stores in business during the period, FebruaryMarch 1961. A new panel, selected from stores in
business during the period, July-August 1963, has
been used starting with February 1964.
5. The full-sample estimates are believed to have
a small upward bias since, in canvassing the
sample area segments, field interviewers may fail
to establish the fact that stores closed or inactive
during the current month may have had some activity
in the previous month. This results in a small overstatement (estimated at slightly above 0.1 percent
in recent months) in the current-to-previous-month
trend used in developing the ratio estimate component
of the composite estimate. This overstatement is
cumulative; however, as a result of the composite
estimating procedure, this accumulation is limited
to a constant upward bias of approximately 0.4
percent for the preliminary sales dollar volume
level estimates and about 0.3 percent for the final
level estimates. The month-to-month change based
on the two "final" estimates is not affected by this
bias; a slight bias (about 0.1 percent) exists only
in the percentage change between a preliminary
estimate month (the second most recent month in
this publication) and a final-estimate month.
Differences observed among the three success!
monthly estimates are believed to be due largely
these limitations in data collection and estima:
procedures. For the past 12 months, the difference*
for all retail stores combined has averaged about O.o
percent between the advance subsample and preliminary
full-sample estimates, and about 0.2 percent between
the preliminary and final estimates. Revisions in the
successive estimates have been greater for individual
kind-of-business categories.
REFERENCES
1. Marris, Stephen N., "The Measurement of Calendar
Variation/' Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, OECD, Paris, 1960, pp. 343-359.
2. Moore, Geoffrey H., editor, Business Cycle Indicators, volume II, Princeton University Press, 1961
p. 49.
3. Shiskin, Julius, "Electronic Computers and Busine
Indicators," Journal of Business, October l r
(Republished as Occasional Paper 57 by the Nat
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957).
4. Shor, Max, "Exploratory Work in Measurer
the Effect of Weather Factors on Retail
1963 Proceedings of the Business and Eco?
Section of the American Statistical Association
5. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Monthly Retail
Report. The revised seasonally adjusted
was first included in the July 1963 issue.
6. Young, Allan, "Census Trading-Day Adjustment
Method" Business Cycle Developments, May 1964,
pp. 59-64.
Appendixes
Appendix A.--BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
30
22
46
IF
34
36
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
36
99
XXX
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894.
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
To
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929....
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
14
13
43
13
_8
11
27
21
50
80
37
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
13
~9
9
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
22
48
30
zi
2
54
46
3
5
48
42
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
X
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
5
3
6
Source:
*21 cycles, 1857-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
2
National Bureau of Economic Research.
67
Appendixes
68
Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(NOVEMBER 1963 TO DECEMBER 1964)
lc>63
Nov. Dec.
19<>4
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
4. Temporary layoff, all industries. 86.7 95.9 144.5 107.7
5. Avg. weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance.... 103.1 133.7 142.1 109.5
13. New business incorporations1
82.3 97.5 116.3 96.3
14. Liabilities of business failures. 102.5 78.5 110.3 101.7
94.. 3 85.7 111.7 112.8
June
July Aug. Sept.
Oct. Nov. Dec.
98.3 146.0
82.4
90.7
78.7
92.5
91.0
90.3
89.0
99.0
92.0
93.5
98.9
86.6
84.0
76.7
94.4
110.0
103.5
115.0
93.8
106.9
114.6
109.1
83.0
102.9
103.3
99.7
82.9
106.7
94.4
104.7
104.7
108.2
82.7
87.6
85.5
90.5
124.9
95.9
86.6
95.2
103.0 134.2
82.3 KTf.2
102.6 77.0
94.3 85,3
17. Ratio, price to unit labor
101.1 97.7 98.0 99.4 100.0
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2. 100.8
94.7
1
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. . 93.1 8l!l 82.6 77.4 92.0
37. Purchased materials, percent re95.1 96.7 109.6 107.4 109.3
55. Wholesale prices, except farm
100.0 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.1
100.3 100.8 102.3 96.2 99.1 101.7 103.3 101.1 97.7
106.2
100.8
97.6
103.6 107.4 110.8 105.0 111.0 124.4 112.6 93.3 82.2
109.1 106.3
96.7
100.0 100.0 99.9
92.8
91.6 93.7 92.1 95.1 96.6
99.9 99.9 99.9 100.1 100.0 100.2
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
98.9 102.3
100.2 99.9
81, Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1 98.5
83. Federal cash receipts from pub,.. 101.9 106.4
90. Defense Department obligations —
92.8 102.7
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total
92. Military contract awards in U.S..
102.3
99.9
91.9
69.3
85.8
100.6
100.0
96.2
112.1
99.9
100.0
93.7
126.6
99.4
99.9
99.0
79.0
85.7 102.5 79.7
103.9
100.2
96.6
48.9
100.8
100.0
115.0
115.1
72.3 207.0 89.6
89.2
99.0
99.8
103.7
121.6
97.6
99.9
102.9
149.8
97.9
100.2
93.8
123.5
96.9
100.2
105.7
46.1
98.9
100.2
102.9
102.0
102.,
99. l
98.
106.
97.1 95.8 92.9 102;7
90.3 99.6 92.2 85.7 108.0 94.6 86.2 147.1 101.1 94.3 98.1 103.6 90.3 99.6
84.8 94.5 91.5 83.3 124.8 84.0 89.6 197.9 69.9 88. C ^9.0 93.9 84.8 94.5
100.8 101.7 100.2 99.4 100.4 100.7 100.1 99.7 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.9 101.8
128. Japan, index of industrial pro-
99.0 102.0
94.7 100.9 108.4 100.3 100.5 99.4
99.1
96.8
99.1 100.3 99.0 102 0
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the; source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
Appendixes
69
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4> and 5- Data are seasonally adjusted.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
194.8
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1Q54
1,109.3
1,190.4
794.9
969.9
1,249.3
1,047.4
974.3
1,101.1
1,072.2
791.8
1,022.7
1,236.3
986.6
1,043.1
1,049.2
1,094.6
772.5
1,079.7
1,280.4
1,006.8
857.0
1,023.1
1,084.8
786.1
1,255.7
1,138.2
1,017.1
1,192.9
1,062.4
1,046.5
772.2
1,133.0
1,128.8
1,009.1
1,087.4
989.2
1,077.4
830.6
1,131.2
1,063.4
995.8
1,095.7
1,069.0
976.2
820.6
1,233.1
970.0
1,018.4
1,084.4
1,125.5
976.8
812.9
1,234.0
1,012.1
1,033.5
1,072.5
950.5
907.2
888.3
1,233.0
1,028.3
1,110.6
1,022.6
1955
1956
'957
958
959
960
1,176.6
1,296.8
1,657.4
1,420.3
1,318.5
1,561.3
1,199.1
1,297.6
1,599.4
1,350.6
1,292.1
1,565.7
1,156.7
1,337.3
1,878.6
1,369.8
1,300.9
1,518.1
1,119.1
1,399.4
1,733.9
1,363.1
1,296.8
1,622.2
1,131.8
1,409.1
1,547.3
1,374.2
1,326.6
1,659.3
1,164.5
1,437.8
1,690.1
1,332.3
1,345.9
1,633.8
1,240.2
1,414.5
1,608.2
1,364.9
1,394.6
1,706.5
1,210.7
1,443.9
1,610.1
1,370.6
1,429.2
1,624.8
Year
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Nov.
Dec.
1,055.6
905.7
89?. 8
1,101.3
1,004.1
974.8
1,135.5
855.7
868.0
940.1
1,273.7
1,026.4
1,044.4
1,149.4
1,188.6
857.8
914.4
1,309.2
1,016.2
1,050.3
1,108.0
1,202.3
1,586.5
1,582.0
1,325.3
1,498.8
1,647.2
1,274.1
1,503.6
1,549.8
1,345.0
1,335.2
1,667.6
1,217.9
1,350.0
1,533.2
1,425.5
1,380.7
1,680.6
1,224.4
1,854.1
1,506.7
1,337.3
1,497.2
1,645.3
Sept.
Oct.
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (Mil. dol.)
87. General imports, total (Mil. dol.)
148
49
r
O
526.4
587.0
592.5
938.4
856.1
902.0
855.7
589.0
567.3
606.3
926.6
881.1
888.6
845.7
888.3
1,047.1
1,058.1
1,054.5
1,164.6
1,246.3
890.6
1,057.1
1,050.2
1,016.4
1,194.5
1,348.0
581.6
510.0
547.6
534.1
605.8
576.9
996.8 1,005.0
903.8
869.1
901.2
957.8
752.2
919.1
905.2
1,035.8
1,118.2
1,050.7
1,213.5
1,289.8
889.8
1,013.5
1,098.5
1,045.8
1,210.3
1,348.6
589.6
548.3
636.4
985.4
838.9
942.2
852.1
619.7
523.6
684.1
966.7
882.2
906.9
928.5
609.4
515.0
787.2
939.7
845.5
913.7
855.7
625.6
486.6
821.5
885.2
897.0
910.4
852.1
596.4
565.2
955.4
837.6
915.7
970.3
815.0
620.4
572.3
911.6
799.3
898.6
831.6
812.9
555.0
602.6
876.1
844.7
904.8
898.1
836.4
676.5
593.2
890.8
812.0
978.8
849.6
889.3
939.5
1,035.1
1,052.5
1,053.8
1,312.9
1,269.0
924.0
1,067.8
1,057.9
1,041.6
1,311.7
1,276.5
956.9
1,066.6
1,122.0
1,039.6
1,251.1
1,270.7
953.5
1,066.2
1,101.6
1,050.6
1,298.3
1,255.8
981.5
1,120.5
1,063.2
1,075.9
1,407.9
1,220.6
1,051.1
1,056.8
1,089.7
1,098.2
1,200.5
1,206.0
1,059.1
977.2
1,075.3
1,164.7
1,298.6
1,161.7
989.6
1,071.0
1,090.0
1,138.0
1,333.2
1,124.8
88. Merchandise trade balance— series 86 minus series 87 (Mil. dol.)
3
49
950
951
952
953
954
+582.9
+603.4
+202.4
+31.5
+393.2
+145.4
+119.1
+512.1
+504.9
+185.5
+96.1
+355.2
+80.0
+197.4
+467.6
+547.0
+195.6
+82.9
+376.6
+1Q5.6
+104.8
+513.1
+550.7
+180.3
+250.7
+269.1
+59.3
+273.8
+472.8
+498.2
+135.8
+147.6
+289.9
+66.9
+235.3
+369.5
+553.8
+146.5
+164.5
+181.2
+88.9
+167.2
+459.6
+461.2
+33.4
+293.4
+124.5
+104.7
+228.7
+499.9
+490.2
-8.6
+348.8
+115.1
+123.1
+220.4
+354.1
+342.0
-67.1
+395.4
+112.6
+140.3
+207.6
+435.2
+333.4
-18.8
+302.0
+105.5
+143.2
+322.6
+300.7
+265.4
+64.0
+429.0
+121.6
+146.3
+313.0
+512.1
+264.6
+23.6
+497.2
+37.4
+200.7
+218.7
955
956
957
958
>59
'O
+288.3
+249.7
+599.3
+365.8
+153.9
+315.0
+308.5
+240.5
+549.2
+334.2
+97.6
+217.7
+251.5
+301.5
+760.4
+319.1
+87.4
+228.3
+229.3
+385.9
+635.4
+317.3
+86.5
+273.6
+192.3
+374.0
+494.8
+320.4
+13.7
+390.3
+240.5
+370.0
+632.2
+290.7
+34.2
+357.3
+283.3
+347.9
+486.2
+325.3
+143.5
+435.8
+257.2
+377.7
+508.5
+320.0
+130.9
+369.0
+220.8
+466.0
+518.8
+249.4
+90.9
+426.6
+223.0
+446.8
+460.1
+246.8
+134.7
+461.6
+158.8
+372.8
+457.9
+260.8
+82.1
+518.9
+234.8
+783.1
+416.7
+199.3
+164.0
+520.5
89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U. S. balance of payments (Mil. dol.)
-396
-843
+292
-529
-312
...
-90
-407
+511
-609
-951
-795
-741
-137
-183
-524
-249
...
...
-388
-143
-14
-927
-1,062
-850
-1,623
+355
-750
-695
-554
...
...
-333
-322
+452
-902
-1,191
-989
...
...
-842
+282
-451
-354
-401
-338
-96
-481
-1,039
-539
-1,247
...
Appendixes
70
Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
47. U. S. index of industrial production (1957-59-100)
1948
19^9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
68.0
66.9
66.5
81.6
82.2
91.0
85.2
68.1
66.4
66.7
81.8
82.7
91.4
85.1
67.4
65.2
69.0
82.3
82.9
92.3
84.5
67.4
64.7
71.2
82.5
82.2
92.8
84.5
68.8
64.0
72.9
82.2
81.4
93.3
85.3
69.4
63.8
75.1
81.8
80.7
92.8
85.7
69.5
63.7
77.5
80.6
79.1
93.9
85.4
69.3
64.3
80.0
80.0
84.4
93.2
85.4
68.7
64.9
79.4
80.3
87.4
91.3
86.0
69.2
62.6
80.0
80.1
88.3
89.9
86.3
68.4
64.1
79.8
80.9
90.2
87.7
87.4
67.9
65.4
81,2
81:4
90.7
85.3
88.9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
90.9
99.8
101.9
92.6
101.2
111.7
91.9
99.2
102.5
90.1
103.0
111.0
93.5
98.8
102.4
88.5
104.8
110.5
95.0
100.2
101.5
87.8
107.1
109.7
96.1
99.6
101.8
89.5
109.4
109.9
96.8
99.3
102.1
92.3
109.9
109.6
97.6
95.1
102.2
94.0
107.5
109.1
98.0
99.7
102.3
95.8
104.1
108.7
99.0
101.2
100.9
96.2
104.0
107.8
100.0
101.6
99.0
96.8
102.8
107.0
99.9
101.5
97.1
99.8
103.4
105.4
100.1
102.2
95.0
100.4
109.5
103.6
90. Defense department obligations, procurement (Mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
*34
740
"ii
386
758
1,067
470
1,064
172
490
200
1,370
206
1,651
304
680
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
320
1,278
1,140
1,637
1,330
937
625
781
1,407
1,232
1,362
1,104
514
1,739
1,117
1,669
1,371
-1,020
861
1,118
1,347
1,619
1,398
983
405
1,158
802
2,042
1,381
1,488
305
1,767
744
1,580
1,425
1,397
474
1,735
707
1,404
1,202
2,204
-872
2,424
827
891
870
1,256
1,489
1,250
1,265
1,121
1,319
1,256
324
1,051
786
2,291
1,517
945
466
1,196
1,418
1,238
1,124
1,468
91. Defense department obligations, total (Mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
2,120
2,952
1,899
2,568
2,837
2,874
2,689
2,945
2,579
2,602
2,150
3,378
2,247
3,701
2,298
2,817
1,180
3,014
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
2,442
3,376
3,325
3,720
3,538
3,234
2,812
3,009
3,594
3,334
3,601
3,439
2,613
4,248
3,254
4,091
3,739
3,368
3,180
3,515
3,543
4,078
3,620
3,362
2,449
3,240
3,020
4,251
3,569
3,677
2,366
4,179
2,745
4,279
3,863
3,771
2,379
3,447
3,017
3,818
3,729
5,305
1,145
4,588
2,915
3,355
3,263
3,824
3,522
3,358
3,184
3,541
3,906
3,999
2,376
3,145
2,855
4,596
3,802
3,357
2,591
3,430
3,499
3,481
3,608
4,109
3,254
3,349
3,406
3,816
3,160
3,58'
92. Military prime contract awards to U. S. business firms (Mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954..... ..
3,976
2,528
3,682
616
3,493
5,479
2,295
564
3,001
2,959
2,381
826
2,892
2,088
2,462
1,068
3,760
3,059
2,038
1,326
2,759
4,292
2,042
1,116
4,097
1,158
2,035
886
4,241
1,002
1,089
767
2,333
2,116
1,004
2,454
2,823
2,143
959
2,271
3,462
3,295
265
481
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1,049
1,349
1,600
1,938
1,465
1,770
1,306
1,480
2,007
1,227
1,916
1,740
1,028
1,471
1,458
2,063
1,772
1,738
1,468
1,026
1,723
1,608
1,762
1,368
841
1,426
627
2,457
1,513
1,811
1,287
1,661
900
1,867
1,905
1,687
997
1,217
1,622
1,560
2,249
2,231
1,357
2,269
1,417
1,686
1,986
2,302
691
2,469
1,497
2,561
1,931
2,361
1,127
1,959
1,593
1,906
2,123
1,477
1,633
2,354
2,14C
1,936
2,289
2,127
Index
Series
number1
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
Charts
1
2
3
Tables
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
8
9
A
B2
C2
D
F3
E2
Page
8
1:...
2, . . 8
8
3...
8
4...
8
5...
6...
9
9
7...
9
9...
1. ..
9
9
10
10
1.0
10
2 ...
_.> ...
14...
15...
16...
17...
18...
19...
11
11
u
11
20...
21...
22...
23...
24...
25...
26...
29...
12
12
11
12
9
12
12
9
30...
31...
32...
37...
8
12
12
12
40...
41...
42...
43...
45...
46...
V7...
9...
13
13
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
14
50
..
50
..
55
55
..
51
..
•.
.•
51
55
51
56
51
50
56
55
..
50
..
..
..
52
57
52
57
53
53
57
56
53
53
52
52
..
6
..
..
••
..
54
54
54
..
'54
..
56
57
..
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
25
24
24
25
22
25
25
23
6
6
6
6
22
25
25
25
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
27
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
..
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
..
••
••
••
..
«.
••
..
•.
58
58
58
58
58
58
59
59
59
59
59
59
60
••
••
••
62
.•
•.
60
••
62
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
..
••
••
..
••
••
••
••
••
•.
••
••
••
••
••
58
58
59
59
60
..
..
58
58
59
59
60
••
58
59
60
••
••
••
58
58
58
59
59
59
60
60
en
••
••
••
62
..
62
62
..
62
62
••
62
63
63
63
64
63
64
63
••
••
..
••
58
59
60
••
62
••
••
••
••
58
59
60
-•
62
••
58
58
59
59
60
60
62
62
58
58
58
59
59
59
60
62
58
58
59
59
6D
60
60
62
62
62
••
••
••
..
•-
..
..
••
••
••
••
..
••
59
59
59
.•
•.
58
58
58
..
58
58
59
59
••
•.
••
..
••
••
68
68
••
•.
*.
••
..
68
68
68
••
68
68
.•
65
.•
64
63
63
65
63
63
••
••
63
65
63
63
k cover for series titles and sources.
May 1964, this appendix was "G».
••
68
•.
68
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
63
63
63
64
64
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
••
68
••
G
Issue Page Issue
66 1-64
66 2-64
65 5-64
66 11-63
66 7-63
65 5-64
63 6-64
••
•.
••
••
••
••
••
•.
65
63
66
66
66
64
68
64
66
5-64
6-64
8-63
11-63
3-64
6-64
6-63
6-64
4-64
64
64
65
66
66
66
65
63
6-64 . •
6-64
6-64
1-64
12-63
12-63
6-64
6-64 • .
66
65
66
68
10-63
6-64
3-64
68
68
68
66
66
66
70
68
69
69
69
66
66
69
70
66
65
68
66
66
70
70
66
. . ••
••
••
••
.•
•.
••
'. •
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
..
••
6-63
8-64
8-64
8-64 . •
2-64
3-64
2-64
9-64
8-64
8-64
8-64
8-64
10-63
10-63
8-64
8-64
4-64
••
••
..
••
.•
••
6-64
6-63
6-64
6-64
8-64
8-64 • •
4-64
•.
•.
•.
••
••
2
Page number shown is for August 1964 issue.
71
Index
72
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
•C!
$g
81...
82...
83...
84...
85...
86...
87...
88...
89...
1
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
121..
122..
123..
125..
126..
127..
128..
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
C2
3
4
5
1
2
••
.•
••
••
••
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
32
29
29
29
30
32
32
32
32
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
29
29
29
30
32
29
32
32
30
29
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
30
30
30
31
31
31
31
31
31
64
64
65
65
63
63
63
63
63
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
3
4
5
6
8
7
9
A
B
•.
•.
•.
••
.•
••
•.
••
•.
•.
•.
..
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
•.
•.
64
63
63
65
65
64
64
65
38
39
38
38
39
39
39
D
F3
E
36
36
••
..
40
40
:;
••
70
G
8-64
••
73 7-64
69 9-64
69 9-64
69 9-64
69 9-64
63
63
63
65
64
68
68
68
••
70
70
70
9-64
9-64
9-64
64
64
65
63
••
••
66
6-64
37
••
..
. .»
.•
••
73 7-64
68
•.
..
68
71
71
71
71
71
72
72
72
72
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
••
..-
•• .
73
73 /
73/
73
74
74
74
74
(74
:
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
66
5-64
45
42
66
5-64
.•
••
43
44
66
5-64
••
••
46
47
40
40
.•
. • 66 6-64
41
37
36
36
68
68
68
41
41
37
37
•^See back cover for series titles and sources.
Before May 1964, this appendix was "G".
3
Appendixes
Page Issue Page Issue
110..
111..
112..
113..
114..
115..
116..
117..
118..
D35..
D36..
D41..
D47..
D48..
D54..
D58..
D61..
2
20
17
17
17
18
20
20
20
20
17
90...
17
91...
17
92...
93 . . . 18
94... 20
17
95...
96...
20
97... 20
18
98...
99..'. 17
Dl...
D5...
D6...
Dll..
D19..
D23..
D34..
Tables
Charts
H
W h
<U 0)
48
49
41
2
Page number shown is for August 1964
issue.
.•
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series and "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, m a n u f a c t u r i n g (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bu- •
reau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly i n i t i a l c l a i m s for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm d w e l l i n g u n i t s started (M).--Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census p andF. W. Dodge Corporation;
-seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corpo.ations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
*12. Net change in tbe business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business f a i l u r e s with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).— Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-
porations (Q). —Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
'9. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (EOM)»—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
iange in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuaon adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Com*rce, Office of Business Economics
o of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all
dustries (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
onomics
c of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
au of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
>f manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
ries(M)«—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
n manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indusOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
•>licy—production materials, percent reporting commit"* days or longer (M).--National Association of Purgents; no seasonal adjustment
• private housing units authorized by local building
.--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagriculturol placements, a l l industries (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M). —
National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41.
Number of employees in nonogricultural establishments (M).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45.
46.
*47.
*49.
*50.
*51.
*52.
53.
*54.
*55.
57.
Average weekly
insured unemployment rate,
State programs
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per u n i t of output, total manufacturing—
ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national
product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in 1954 dollars) ((^.--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National
Income Division
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON. D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
28 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Board of Gover-
nors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).—Treasury Depart-
ment, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by
the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the
official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
113. Net change in consumer installment debt (EOM).—Board of Gov
ernors of the Federal Reserve System
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M),
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no s;,
sonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M)..Treasury Departmei
no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Firs
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department,
no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The Bond
Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).--Federal Hous-
84. Fed
ing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
the method of seasonal adjustment
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
olus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M). —Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart-
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).--De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Statistical Office (London)
123.
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Deutsche
Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
126.
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Canada, index of industrial production (M).--Dominion Bureau
France, index of industrial production (M).—Statistical Office
(Paris)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for Eco-
nomic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial
production (M).—Ministry of Interna-
tional Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by
compiler and Bureau of the Census
...
United States, index of industrial production (M).--See serie
47.
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). —F. W. Dodge
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).--De-
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers'unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the C.ensus
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).--National
Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products (M).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q).--Board of Governors of the Federal
System
Reserve
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Q).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. I
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear >
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sourc
for Dl, D5, D6, D l l , D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sc
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Br
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Du^
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of A,
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--De
Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal ad
of the Census
@FedFRASER