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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary
Michael R. Darby, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
George R. Green, Editor

This report is prepared by the Business Outlook Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
(Telephone: 202-523-0800) Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are as follows:
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Computer system development
Charles S. Robinson—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data base manager
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Frank de Leeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue
Composite Indexes: Latest Release . .
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

iii
v

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
OCTOBER 1989
Data Through September
Volume 29, Number 10

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

Cl
C2
C3

Chart

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

36
—
39

74
77
—




The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department.

BCII




I!.
IMPORTANT
NATIONAL INCOME

A5_

AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
_Bf]
BJTj

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
[Lei J

Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
.JEXLJ
D2J

Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
EL J
E2 1]

Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
ELJ
J-~2
L£3_J

Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
Cyclical Indicators: New Composite Index Components
Current Adjustment factors (August 1989issue)
Historical Data for Selected Series
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1989 issue)
Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (May J989 issue)
Supplemental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

97
98

105
108
112

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication. Address
them to Editor, Business Conditions Digest,
Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230.

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

Changes in this issue are as follows:

1. In this issue, the composite indexes (series 910, 920,
930, and 940) have been revised from January 1984 through
August 1989. This is the first of the annual revisions
(announced early this year) that will incorporate revised data
for component seri es. The revi si on thi s year i ncludes a
technical correction to the standardization factor for one
component of the leading index.
Early this month, BEA discovered that the standardization
factor for the consumer expectations component (series 83)
should have been computed separately for the periods 1952-77
and 1978-85, rather than the entire period 1952-85. A new
standardization factor (3.931), computed over the period 197885, has been applied to the consumer expectations component
from January 1984 forward.
This correction reduces the
inf1uence of this component on the 1eading index in recent
years.
Most revisions to the monthly percent changes in the
composite indexes are very small. For the leading index,
during the period January 1984 through August 1989, 43 of the
68 months have revisions of 0.1 percentage point or less; the
largest revisions are 0.4 percentage point in December 1986 and
in November 1987. Historical data for the composite indexes
are shown in appendix C.
Further information concerning the composite index
revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The November issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on December 7.
in



2. In addition to the composite index revision (see item 1, above), the diffusion
indexes based on the composite index components (series 950, 951, and 952) have been
recomputed from 1984 forward. Historical data for these indexes are shown in appendix C.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division.
3. The index of industrial production for Canada (series 723) has been revised by the
source agency from 1984 forward. This revision reflects the annual updating of the basic
statistics and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from Statistics Canada,
Industry Product Division, Ottawa K1A OV5, Canada.
4. Historical data for series 557, 910, 920, 930, 940, 950-952, 966, and 967 are shown
in appendix C (pages 98-104).

Availability of Data
Data for the composite indexes, their components, and other economic
time series shown in Business Conditions Digest are available in several
forms — printout, diskette, computer tape, and electronic bulletin board.
For information about these products, write to the Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 523-0800.




IV

COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
INDICATORS: SEPTEMBER 1989
The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.2 percent in September to
145.0 (1982=100), according to preliminary estimates released October 31 by the Commerce
Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
On the basis of revised estimates (see page iii), the index increased 0.5 percent
in August and was unchanged in July. A month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that
showed the index increased 0.3 percent in August and 0.1 percent in July. The index of
consumer expectations was the major contributor to the August and July revisions.
Four of 11 indicators contributed to the September increase in the index. They
were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: index of consumer
expectations, money supply in 1982 dollars, average workweek, and stock prices.
Seven of 11 indicators made negative contributions. They were, ordered from the
largest negative contributor to the smallest: manufacturers' new orders for consumer
goods and materials in 1982 dollars, change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982
dollars, contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, vendor
performance (slower deliveries diffusion index), average weekly initial claims for State
unemployment insurance, building permits, and change in sensitive materials prices.
The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate
economic activity, was unchanged in September at 133.9 (1982=100). The index increased
1.0 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July.
The composite index of lagging indicators decreased 0.5 percent in September to
119.7 (1982=100). The index increased 0.3 percent in August and decreased 0.4 percent
in July.
The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic
activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected
to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to
confirm the movements in the coincident index.
More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 106 of this
issue of Business Conditions Digest.

Next release date:

December 1 for the October composite indexes

A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite
indexes and their components immediately upon their release. The message is updated
weekly to include recently available data for composite index components that will be
incorporated into the next release.
This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public
release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge
to users. For information, call (202) 377-1986.




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METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures; Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators, (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part 1 are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1977.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic,
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components

All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
Reference Turning Dates
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically
as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the
1981-82.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N.

Economic
N, Process

Cyclical ^v
Timing
\.

LEADING (I)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (!) series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(?, series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\v
Economic
\. Process
X.

Cyclical \v
Timing
N.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(I series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
marg ns (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(? series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits and profit
margins (2 series)

Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
U series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are other indexes based on leading indicators that
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include many
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
11 components of the leadrng index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs,
all but one component of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,lg,l_g." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 21 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18
series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C, Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and- thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a l consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.




Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is. the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major e x p e n d i t u r e components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1977.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components; Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D, Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels;
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1977) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1977) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data,
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1 -quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or


2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data3

Series title and timing classification

Unit
of
measure

1

Percent change
1*1

iI

Annual average
1987

198B

3dQ
1989

2dQ
1989

198S

July
1989

Sept.
1989

Aug.
1989

Aug,
to
Sept.
1989

July
to
Aug.
1989

2dQ
to
3dQ
1989

IstQ
to
20 Q
1989

$]

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930,
940.

Eleven leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Seven lagging indicators....
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

,

L,L,L.. 1982-100
do
C.C.C....
do
Lf»,lg,Lg....
do
l.l.L...

140.1
122.4
111.3
110.0

142.8
128.2
114.9
111.6

145.4
131.9
119.2
110.7

144.7
132.7
120.0
110.5

144.6
133.5
120.0
111.2

144.0
132.6
120.0
110.5

144.7
133.9
120.3
111.3

145.0
133.9
119.7
111.9

0.5
1.0
0.3
0.7

0.2
0.
-0.5
0.5

-0.5
0.6
0.7
-0.2

-0.1
0.6
0.
0.6

910
920
930
940

l,l,L.., 1967-100
do
L,L,L...
do
III..,
do
L.L.L....

MA
106.3
121.7
145.8

NA
105,8
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

914
915
916
917

ILL ... Hours
do
L.C.L...
L,C,L... Thousands

41.0
3.7
320

41.1
3,9
305

41.1
3.9
306

41.1
3.8
313

41.0
3.8
325

41.0
3.9
338

40.9
3.7
316

41.0
3.8
320

-0.2
-0.2
6.5

0,2
0.1
-1.3

0.615
153

0.701
158

0.718
154

0.699
153

0.676
148

0.687
150

0.681
147

189.99 196.44
1 0 9 . 2 3 111.80
102.20 105.58
24,708 25,249

200.32
113.66
107.68
25,634

201.44
114.18
108.34
25,664

202.20
114.24
108.90
25,651

202.54
114.24
108.77
25,669

leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
917. Money and financial flows
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments;
*1 Average weekly hours mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
,
*S. Average weekly initial claims (inverted1)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers.

L,Lg,U.... Ratio.,,....
L,Lg,U.... 1967-100

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in (^agricultural establishments
42, Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities.,
*41. Employees on nonagneultural payrolls.....
40 Employees in goods-producing industries
SO. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3

U,Lg,U.... Percent

Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number oi persons unemployed (inverted1)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted1)3
45. Avg, weekly insured unemployment rate (inv/)!
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted1)
44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.1)3

l,Lg,U,.,,
l.lg.U....
L,Lg,U....
Lg,lg,lg...Lg,lg,Lg....

U,C,C.... A.r., oil. hrs......
U,C,C.... Millions
do
C.C.C....
L C U ... Thousands

-0.2
0.
-3.8

0.660 -0.006 - 0 . 0 2 1 -0.019 - 0 . 0 2 3
146
-2.0
-0.7
-0.6
-3.3

2 0 1 . 5 9 202.4-8
114.29 114.20
108.86 109.06
25,696 25,588

-0.5
0.
0.1
0.1

60.77

61.54

62.19

62.26

62,23

62.26

62.28

62.16

7 ,425
6.2
2.4
14.5
1.7

Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent

0.
-0.1
-2.3

6,701
5.5
2.1
13.5
1.3

6,391
5.2
2.1
12.4
1.1

6,501
5.3
2.1
11.9
1.1

6,501
5.2
2.1
11.6
1.1

6,497
5.2
2,2
12.0
1.2

6,421
5.2
2.1
11.3
1.1

6,584
5.3
2.1
11.4
1.1

1.2
0.
0.1
5.8
0.1

4158.1
3416.7 3407.8 3420.1 3422.1

0.4

0.02

0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.4

0.6
0.5
0.6
0.1

0.4
0.1
0.5
-0.1

1
21
5

60
46

48
42
41
40

-0.12

0.07

-2.5
-0.1
0.
-0.9
0.

-1.7
-0.1
0.
4.0
0.

0.
0.1
0.
2.5
0.

37
43
45
91
44

0.1

0.6
0.6

0.6
0.8

50
52

0.3

0.

0.6

0.7

51

0.6

53

0.3
0.1
0.8
0.7

47
73
74
49

82
84

-0.03

90

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50, Gross national product in 1982 dollars.
52 Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction

3853.7 4024.4 4106.8 4132.5
3153.7 3264.5 3371.4 3390.9

CtC,C.... A.r., bil.dol
do
C C C ...
CCC
CCC..,

do

2696.0 2794.8 2890.2 2907.9 2929.4 2922.7

do
....

544.5

560.8

568.4

129.8
133.1
136.8
1669.0

137.2
141.9
143.9
1771.6

140.7
146.0
148.4
1823.2

81.0
80.5

83.6
83.7

84.4
84,1

2932.4 2933,2

568.2

566.3

569.7

568.5

0.6

-0.2

141.8
142.2
147.1
147.2
149.9
151.1
1843.9 1 8 5 7 . 6

142.0
147.0
150.9

142.4
147.6
151.1

142.3
146.9
151.3

0.3
0.4
0.1

-0.1
-0.5
0.1

84.1
83.7

84.1
83.8

83.7
83.4

0.
0.1

-0.4
-0.4

0.
-0.2

-0.4
-0.3

119.51 1 2 5 . 9 9 1 2 6 . 0 1 1 2 5 . 1 8 1 2 2 , 0 3 1 2 6 . 8 2
1 0 4 . 7 6 1 0 7 . 3 8 106.85 1 0 5 , 5 4 1 0 3 . 2 4 107.12

126.68
106.27

3.9
3.8

-0.1
-0.8

0.
-0.5

-0.7
-1.2

..........do
84.57
87.20
88.70
88.15
86.92
82.90
90.70
87.15
do
2.50
3.93
4.34
3.34
1.75
4.92
-1.56
1.88
Bil. dol., EQP ... 4 0 0 . 7 2 447 .87 4 6 0 . 9 0 4 7 0 . 9 2 4 7 6 . 1 5 4 7 5 . 8 3 4 7 4 . 2 7 4 7 6 . 1 5
57.4
57.7
52.8
50.0
45.2
Percent
43,8
46.9
44.9

-6.48
-0.3

3.44
0.4

-1.00
2.2

-1.59
1.1

8
25
96
32

3.1
3.3
0.3
0.7
1.2

NA
NA
0.1
0.5
0.3

NA
NA
-0.2
1.6
1.7
7.1
1.8

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

-1.8
NA

12
13

Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74, Industrial production, nondurable mfrs.....
49 Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

C,C,C.,.. 1977-100
do
C,C,C,...
do
C,l,L...
C C C A r bil do)

Capacity Utilization:
82, Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84 Capacity utilization rate materials1

L,C,U.,.. Percent
L CU
do

565.0

84.4
83.9

84.0
83.6

-0.6

0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1

B3, Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.1 new orders, durable goods
L.L.L....
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
l,L,l,,,
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials 1
'. l,l,L..,
25. Change in mfrs. unfilled orders, durable goods3
1,1,1....
96. Mfrs,' unfilled orders, durable goods5
L,Lg U ...
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3
l,L,L...
Consumption and Trade;
56. Manufacturing and trade sales...,.
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stares in 1982 dollars ,
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment (vf)

C,C,C....
C,C,C....
C.L.C....
C.L.U....
U,l,U....
L.C.C....
l,L,L...

Bil do)
do

Bil. dol
do
1977-100
Bil. dol
do
A.r., bil.dol
IQ 1966- 100,

107.72
98.28

449.21
434.31
127.8
126.78
114.88
131.7
90.6

484.95
450.10
133.9
135.76
119.12
144.2
93.7

5 0 8 . 9 2 517.18
NA 511.14 5 2 6 . 7 9
NA
NA 4 5 1 . 8 0 4 6 6 . 5 7
454.89 457.49
NA
139.2
138.5
139.5
138.9
139.3
139.5
1 3 9 . 6 6 1 4 2 . 1 5 1 4 4 . 4 3 143.56 144.51 1 4 5 . 2 1
120.26 1 2 0 . 7 1 1 2 2 . 7 4 121.66 1 2 3 . 0 9 1 2 3 . 4 8
142.7
144.5
154.7
95.9
90.9
92.5
89.6
95.8
92.0

-2.6

6.9

1.6
0.6
0.7
1.8
0,4
1.3
-5.2

0.
NA

-0.8
-3.8

6
7

64, Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
12 Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders far plant and equipment....,
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars.....
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




I I 1967-100
I
l,L,L»» Number

121.2
124.1
126.5
125.5
57 ,113 5 6 , 9 4 5 59 ,119 5 6 , 8 5 6

123.2

124.4
NA 5 4 , 5 1 9

122.6
NA

122.6
NA

-1.4
NA

L(L,L... Bil. dol

34.67

39.85

43.05

43.51

42,71

45.99

41.71

40.42

-9.3

l.L.L...
L,L,L-

do...
do

39.51
29.66

44.96
35.01

47.19
38.56

47.72
38.94

47.61
37.89

50.01
41.44

47.00
37.16

45.81
35.08

-6.0
-10.3

LLL...

.do

3 5 . IS

40.89

43 . S 9

LL . nn

LI .7 1

Lf* . in

Al

A1

11

1 A

-ft L

-3.1

1.1

-1.8

10

-2,5
-5.6

1,1
1.0

-0.2
-2,7

20
24

„/. o

i i

_n T

*j i

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2

Series title and timing classification1

of

Percent change

Annual average
1987

1988

IstQ
1989

2dQ
1989

July
to
Aug.
1989

Sept.
1989

Aug.
1989

July
1989

3dQ
1989

IstQ
to
2dQ
1989

Sept,
1989

*

2dQ
to
3dQ
1989

e

.3
*

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments— Con.:
9. Construction contracts awardedjor commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.... Mif.sq.ft
Bil dot
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s
C.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...
Business Investment Expenditures:
A.r,,bil. dol
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
do
construction expenditures
C,Lg,Lg....
76. Industrial production, business equipment
C.lg.lL.. 1977 = 100
86. Presidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
C,Lg,C.... A.r.p bil. dol
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment;
28 New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89 Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
-s
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

L,L,L... A.r., thousands,.
L,L,L... 1967=100
ILL A r bil dol

74.43
NA
NA

76.73
NA
NA

389.67 430.76 459.47

470.86

481.24

404.67 453.10 478.60 488.30
157.6
165.0
168.8
144.5
493.8
511.4
455.5
501.0

1 ,620
122.9
194.8

1,488
116.0
194.1

23.7

66.89

85.52

NA 4 8 4 . 0 4 5 0 8 . 2 0
169.5
168.9
169.9
518.0

NA
169.8

5.0
0.6

1,420
102.2

1,332
105.9

1,263
105.2

-6.2
3.6

77.79

-14.0

NA
-0,1

69
76
86

11.1

30

NA
NA

36
31

NA

38

2.0
0.6
2.2

NA
NA
NA

71
70
65

19.1

30.2

25 .10
46.9

20.34
53.0

22.31
47.1

-2.25
61.2

NA
NA

10.57
81.4

11.30
27.4

NA
NA

0.73
-54.0

1.48

1.79

1.22

-0.25

NA

3.37

-0.67

NA

-4.04

NA

Lg,Lg,lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 7 0 0 . 7 6 7 5 3 , 7 2 7 6 5 . 5 0 7 8 0 , 8 0
664.72 687.97 690.50 694.54
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
1 0 6 . 8 2 1 1 3 . 9 3 115.36 1 1 7 . 8 5
do
Lg.Lg.Lg....

NA 7 8 7 . 5 8 7 8 9 . 8 6
NA 6 9 7 . 1 2 6 9 9 , 0 3
NA 119.02 119.20

NA
NA
NA

0.3
0.3
0.2

NA
NA
NA

L&L&Lg... Ratio

NA

L,Lg,lg.... Bi!. dol., EOP ... 2 5 5 . 1 1 2 7 6 . 5 6 2 8 0 . 2 2 2 7 9 . 4 8

61

NA
0.4
1.3

-5,4

24.5

1.51

2.2

2.0
2.3
2.1

NA - 2 4 , 5 6
NA
14,1

27.9

1.52

9
11
97

28
29
89

1,338
104.4
187.0

1.50

3.1
NA
NA

-1.0
-1.5
-1.2

1,352
106.0
189.3

1.50

1.1
NA
NA

2.5

27.9

1,517
109.5
195.6

Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
L,L,L . . .do. ..
36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
63
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed )
L,l,L . . .do. .
. . do .
31 Change in mfg and trade inventories3
L,L,L
38. Change in mfr$.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and'on order^ .
ILL Bil dol , . ..
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71 Mfg and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order5

80.65 75.76 73.62
2 9 . 7 9 3 9 . 3 0 50.01
7 8 . 0 6 1 0 0 . 2 0 114.55

-5.2
-0.7

-10.9
-3.2
-3,2

-1.47

1.54

1.50

NA

-0.04

NA

-0.01

NA

77

NA 2 8 2 . 8 5

282.18

NA

-0.2

NA

-0.3

NA

78

-0.21
325.0
-0.47

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials ©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed') 3

L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967-100
L,L,L... Percent

0.29
327.0
-0.48

0.57
-0.5
-0.24

0.50
0.6
-0.01

-0.81
0.6
-0.42

-0.28
-1.6
-0.88

98
23
99

Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks (u)

L,L,L... 1941-43-10... 2 8 6 . 8 3 2 6 5 . 7 9 2 9 0 . 7 1 3 1 3 . 3 0 3 4 1 . 9 6 3 3 1 . 9 3 3 4 6 . 6 1 3 4 7 . 3 3

4.4

0.2

7.8

9.1

19

Profits and Profit Margins:
16 Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars
15 Profits after taxes per dollar of sales mfg 3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L L L A r bil dol
do
L.L.L....
do
L.C.L....
do
L CL
ILL Cents
L.L.L.... 1977 = 100

142.0
126.8
174.0
159.6
4.8
98.7

168.9
148.0
190.7
170,1
6.0
98.7

173.6
147 .5
171.9
145.8
5.9
98.2

161.1
133.2
172.9
145.0
4.8
98.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-7.2
-9.7
0.6
-0.5
-1.1
-0. 1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

16
18
79
80
15
26

Cash Flows:
34 Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

ILL A.r., bil. dol
x..do
L,L,L...

397 .3
392.8

427 .0
419.9

426.9
416.5

412.2
401.9

NA
NA

-3.4
-3.5

NA
NA

34
35

63

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share;
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg.,.. 1977=100
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Index
Lg,Lg,Lg,., 1977 = 100
*b) Percent change3 '
Lg,Lg,Lg,., A.r., percent
64. Compensation of 5employees as percent of
national income
. Lg,Lg,Lg,. Percent

1.36
274,5
1.09

0.31
303.3
0.45

0.86
329.5
0.91

0.05
331.5
0.49

-0.23
326.2
-0.39

-0.78
326.7
-0.23

171.9

177 .2

181.9

184.3

NA

1.3

NA

0.730

0.744

0.768

0.778

NA

1.3

NA

68

137.2
-0.9

138.3
1.5

139.6
1.6

139.2
1.7

140.2
1.5

-0.3
0.1

0.7
-0,2

62
62

73.4

73.2

73.2

73.4

NA

0.2

NA

64

-0.51
0,
-0.13
-2.9
-1.3

1.16
0.63
NA
-0.1
1.2

85
102
104
105
106

0.064
0.208
0.023 -0.008

107
108

NA
NA
-6.03 -38.21
NA
NA
NA
NA
-6.8
NA

33
112
113
111
110

NA

39

139.8
1.1

140.2
1.5

140.5
1.8

0.3
0.4

0.2
0.3

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml3
102 Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105 Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
*106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars

do
L,L,L....
do
. L,C,LL
do
L.L.L..
L,L,L.. Bil dol
do
L.L.L.,

Velocity of Money:
107 Ratio GNP to money supply Ml3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23

C C C Ratio
do
C,Lg,C...

Credit
33
112.
113
111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt33
Net change in business loans
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5




0.30
0.41
-0.17
-0.68
0.48
0.91
0.05
0.49
0.10
0.73
0.96
0.60
0.29
0.45
0.63
0.10
NA
NA
0.74
0.43
0.62
0.37
0.24
0.39
631.6
604.4
603.5
602.6
602.9
632.7
604.9
622.7
2430.0 2 4 5 3 . 7 2431.0 2400.3 2430.3 2416.7 2431,3 2 4 4 2 . 8

6.078
1.319

6.707
1.429

6.771
1.421

NA
NA
L,L,L... A.r,, bil. dol
NA
NA
do
L,L,L...
8.30
37.84
73.57
67 .54
do
L,L,L...
35.67
NA
38.75
51.79
L,L,L... A.r,, percent....
6.1
NA
8.3
7.9
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
5 5 3 . 2 0 6 1 5 . 2 2 585 .93 5 4 6 , 2 8

L,L,L. Percent, EOP ..

2.47

6.289
1.350

2.49

6.499
1.406

2.39

2.30

-0.86
-0.36
-0.31
0.
0.6

0.44
0.03
NA
0.3
0.5

1.425

1.421

1.416

-0.004 -0.005

NA
29.33
NA
NA
NA

NA
12.97
-6.06
1.8

NA
NA
93.07 -18.04
41.71
NA
NA
7.1

NA
NA
80.10 -111.1
NA
47,77
NA
5 .3

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

0.09

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data3

Series title and timing classification

Unit
of
measure

1

Percent change
,£
{'•

Annual average
1987

3dQ
1989

2dQ
198S

IstQ
1989

July
1989

Aug.
1889

Aug.
to
Sept,
1989

July
to
Aug.
1989

Sept.
1989

1988

2dQ
to
3dQ
1989

IstQ
to
2dQ
1989

LJ
»

&

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7, Money and Credit— Cwi.
Bank Reserves:
93, Free reserves (inverted*) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve'®

L.U.U.... Mil. dol
do
L,Lg,U....

Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate5 ®
114, Discount rate on new Treasury bills3®
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds3®
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117, Yield on municipal bonds3 ®
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3®
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3®
•109. Average prime rate charged by banks3®

Ug,Lg,,., Percent
do
C.lg.lg....
,,do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do
C.lg.Lg.,..
do
U.lg.Lg...,
do
tg,lg,Lg....
do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
.do
Lg,lg,Lg.,..

241 -1,332
756
2,357

-569
1,654

-929
. 1,833

7.57
6.67
9.96
8.98
7.68
10.49
9.18
9.32

9.44
8.53
10.12
9.19
7.46
10.91
10.97
10. 98

9.73
8.44
9.72
8.84
7.25
10.50
11.89
11.36

6.66
5.83
9,69
8.63
7.64
10.16
8.09
8.20

226
687

272
694

210
675

195
693

62
-19

15
18

9.08
7.85
9.19
8.25
7.09
9.83
10.78
10.66

9.24
7.92
9.20
8.19
6.96
9.61

8.99
7. 91
9.08
8.26
7,06
9.95

9.02
7 .72
9.29
8.31
7.26
9.94

-0.25
-0,01
-0.12
0.07
0.10
0.34

0.03
-0.19
0.21
0.05
0.20
-0.01

10.98

10.50

0.

360 -1,155
179 -1,146

93
94

0.29
-0.09
-0.40
-0.35
-0.21
-0.41
0.92
0.38

-0.65
-0,59
-0.53
-0.59
-0.16
-0.67
-1.11
-0.70

119
114
116
US
117
118
67
109

-0.48

NA 7 0 0 . 3 4 7 0 3 . 8 2
NA
Lg.Lg.Lg-... Bit. dot, EOP ... 6 0 7 . 7 2 6 5 9 . 5 1 691.16 7 0 0 . 8 5
364.07 3 9 0 . 3 2 418.54 4 3 5 . 2 9 445.94 441.27 449.03 4 4 7 , 5 2
Lg,Lg,lg..,. Bil. do)

Outstanding Debt:
66, Consumer installment credit outstanding'
11. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95, Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income5..,
,

10.50

0.5
1.8

NA
-0.3

1.4
4.0

NA
2.4

66
72

400.92 398.51

2.4

-0.6

2.3

2.8

101

NA

0.03

NA

NA

95

125.0
0.2
126.2
112.3
111.9
102.3
112.3
120.2
112.5

0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0,6
-0.7
-1.9
-0.3
0.3
-0.5

0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.1
0.4
1.0
0,9

1.1
1.6
0.
1.6
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.1
0.7
2.0

0.7
0.8
-0.4
0.9
-0.4
-0,4
-1,8
-0.4
1.0
-0.5

310
320
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334

377.28 386.00 396.99

391.54

NA

15.76

15.79

125.9
123.7
0.5
124.8
112.8
112.2
104.1
112.5
118.1
112.6

126.8
124.7
0.1
125.9
112.3
111.8
102.2
112.1
119.3
112.0

124.4
0.2
125.7
112.7
112.2
103.2
112.2
118.7
112.1

124.6
0.
125.9
112.0
111.4
101.2
111.9
119.0
111.5

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

340

NA
204.8
101.8
113.9
111.8

NA
207.6
101.6
114.3
112.0

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA
1.4
-0.2
0,4
0.2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

341
345
346
370
358

124.00 1 2 3 . 9 6 1 2 4 . 0 2 124.04
117 .50 117 .46 117.60 117.46
6,584
6,497
6,421
6,501
2,854
2,734
2,790
3,038
2,613
2,468
2,478
2,353
1,150
1,163
1,169
1,193
5,218
5,183
5,219
5,255

0.
0.1
-1.2
2.0
-5.5
1.1
-0.7

0.
-0.1
2.5
8.9
-4.7
2.6
1.4

0.4
0.3
1.7
-1.0
5.2
1.3
0,9

0.2
0.2
0.
2.0
-0.8
-2,8
1.1

441
442
37
444
445
446
447

-0.1
-0.1
1.3

0.1
0.
-0.9

0.
0.1
0.8

-0.2
0.1
-0.2

451
452
453

2.1
1*6
1.3
-1.3
1.4
1.7

NA
NA
-0.6
NA
NA
1.6

500
501
502
510
511
512

354.19

364.95

15.57

15.69

15.91

15.86

117.4
113.6
0.4
113.5
102.8
102.6
93.7
101.5
111.7
103.6

121.3
118.3
0.3
118.2
106.9
106.3
96.0
107.1
114.3
106.2

124.5
121.7
0.5
122.8
110,9
110.1
102.3
111.3
117.3
110.4

1977-100

173.5

179.0

.....do
do
do
do..,
do

Lg.Lg.Lg....

94.0
188.9
100.8
111.1
108.9

93.3
197.9
101.4
113.1
111.2

do

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent

-0.05

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Dl. Price Movements
320,
320c.
322
330
335
331.
332.
333
334

1982-100
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©,.,. 1982-84-100.
Percent.,
Change in CPI-U (S/A)3..
1982-84-100.
Consumer price index for all urban consumers food
1982=100 .
Producer price index (PPI) all commodities ®
do.
PPI industrial commodities ©
do
PPI, crude materials for further processing
do
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
do
PPI capital equipment
do
PPI finished consumer goods
B2. Wages and Productivity

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagrieultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370, Output per hour, business sector
358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector

NA
NA
NA
NA

C. labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442
37
444
445.
446
447

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed fulhtime workers . .

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451 Males 20 years and over3
,
452. Females 20 years and over3
453 Both sexes 16=19 years of age3

,

Millions ,
do
Thousands
do
do....,
do
. . do
Percent
do
do

119.86 121.67 1 2 3 . 2 9 1 2 3 . 7 9
112.44 114.97 116.90 117.29
7 ,425 6,701
6,391 6,501
2,987
2,826
3,369
2,798
2,709
2,376
2,499
2,487
1,347
l',203
1,226
1,188
5,357
5,116
5,979
5,161

78.0
56.2
54.7

77.9
56.8
55.3

78.1
57.6
55.2

78.1
57.7
56.0

77.9
57.8
55.8

A.r bil dol .
do
do
do
do
do

-161.4 - 1 4 5 . 8 - 1 4 7 . 5 -145.4
911.4
9 7 2 . 4 1036.2 1053.2
1 0 7 2 . 8 1118.3 1183.7 1198.6
49.7
48.8
51.3
47.5
656.1
732.6
701.6
742.6
604.6
683.8
651.9
695.1

NA
NA
1191,0
NA
NA
706.3

Mil dol
do
do
1977^100
Thousands
A.r., bil. dol

30,812 31,783 30,832 30,315
11,977
NA
NA
NA
9,145
9,140
8,478
8,354
188.9
185.8
179.3
180.6
1,580
1,550
1,529
1,528
294.8
298.0
298.7
301.3

Mil. dol
. . , do
do
do
do
do

21,176 2 6 , 8 6 8 2 9 , 2 9 4 30,833
2,400
3,114
3,337
3,548
4,428
5,830
5,549
5,823
33,854 36,746 38,549 39,624
3,471 3,209
3,680
4,470
5,896
5,942
6,078
5,643

77.9
57.9
55.2

77.8
57.8
56.5

77.9
57.8
55.6

D, Government Activities
Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
500,
501.
502,
510
511,
512

Federal Government surplus or deficit3 .
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures

517
525.
§48
557,
570
564.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs ' new orders defense products ...
Industrial production, defense and space equipment
Employment defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense

,. ,

D2. Defense Indicators
NA 3 0 , 9 9 6 2 8 , 5 3 0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
9,313
7,626
7 , 9 2 7 12,387
181.1
181.7
181.0
180.5
NA
1,522
1,514
NA
306.2

-8.0
NA
3.9
-0.4
-0.5

NA
NA
56.3
-0.3
NA

-1.7
NA
-1.5
0.7
-0.1
0.9

NA
NA
11.5
0.3
NA
1.6

517
525
548
557
570
564

-0.2
-14.2
-1.3
6.4
2.3
-3.5

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

5.3
6.3
-0.1
2.8
21.5
-7.2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

602
604
606
612
614
616

E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612,
614,
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
...
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts




.....

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

30,468 30,408
3,657
3,139
6,371
6,290
3 8 , 7 0 9 41,180
4,130
4,227
5 .621 5 . 4 2 6

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title

E

;nnual averag »

of

^_

F ercent chang e

2d Q
1988

3dQ
1988

4th Q
1988

IStQ
1989

2dQ
1989

4th Q
to
IstQ
1989

3dQ
1989

IstQ

2dQ
to
3dQ
1989

to
2dQ

1987

1988

-29.37
97.99
127,36
...do.
...do.. . - 3 6 . 2 6
55.84
..do
92.11
. .do. .. .
22.15
...do. ...
16.74
do

-32.37
111.54
143.91
-39.88
62.57
102.44
26.18
20.60

-27.97
132.45
160.42
-31.80
79.81
111.62
26.94
26.39

-30.59
126.80
157.39
-31.41
78.47
109.88
23.15
25.61

-28.96
131.57
160.54
-30.34
80.60
110.94
24.72
27.31

-23.66
143.63
167 .28
-32.02
83.73
115.75
33.16
28.67

-26 .86
142.17
169.03
-28.38
87.92
116.30
26.83
29,25

-27 .89
145.86
173.76
-27.72
90.87
118.58
26.93
31.95

NA
NA
HA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-3.20
-1.0
1.0
3.64
5.0
0.5
-19.1
2.0

-1.03
2,6
2 ,8

A.r., bil. dol
do
do.
A.r., dollars

4231.6
3717.9
15,385
3712.4
3013.3
2635.3
10,905

4524.3
3853.7
15,794
3830.0
3205.9
2676.6
10,970

4880.6
4024.4
16,334
3996.5
3477.8
2793.2
11,337

4838.5
4010.7
16,303
3989.2
3435.9
2773.3
11,273

4926.9
4042.7
16,388
4005.2
3511.7
2 8 0 6 .4
11,377

5017.3
4069.4
16,452
4051.0
3587.4
2835.9
11,466

5113.1
4106.8
16,567
4082.3
3689.5
2881.7
11,625

5201.7
4132.5
16,633
4113,5
3 7 4 7 .7
2 8 8 7 .6
11,622

5273.2
4158,1
16,690
4127 .9
3809.8
292 1 .5
11,726

A.r., bil. dol.. ..
.. .do ....
. ..do. . .
. .do .
do. . ..
.do. . .
.. ..do
do

2797.4
2446.4
406.0
384.4
942.0
878.1
1449,5
1183.8

3010.8
2513.7
421.0
389.6
998.1
890.4
1591.7
1233.7

3235.1
2598.4
455.2
413.6
1052.3
904.5
1727.6
1280.2

3204.9
2586.8
454.6
414.8
1042.4
899.2
1707 .9
1272.8

3263.4
2608. 1
452.5
410.7
1066.2
910.3
1744.7
1287.0

3324.0
2627 .7
467.4
420,5
1078,4
912.0
1778.2
1295.2

3381.4
2641,0
466.4
419.3
1098.3
915.0
1816.7
1306.7

3444.1 3509.5
2 6 5 3 . 7 2 6 9 1 .2
47 1.0 4 9 0 . 4
424.9
440.0
1121.5 1128.9
918.6
909.7
1851,7 1590.1
1319.0 1332,5

659.4
639.6
652.5
634.1
6.9
5.6

699.9
674.0
670.6
650,3
29.3
23.7

750.3
715.8
7 19 .6
687 .9
30.6
27 .9

748,4
713.5
719.1
692 . 0
29,3
21.5

771.1
733.6
726 . 5
696.1
44.6
37.5

791.0
735.2
755 . 8
705 . 0
35 .1
30.2

2.2
1 .7
1.1
0. 8
9.0
6 .2

0.7
-0 .2
0.8
0. 6

872.2
761.6
366 .5
334.1
505.7
427.5

926 . 1
781.8
381.6
339.6
544.5
442.1

9689
785.1
381.3
328.9
587.6
456.2

960.1
783.0
377.1
327 .9
583.0
455.1

9 5 8 6 1011 4 1016 0 1033 2 1 040 5
799,7
806.4
805.7
810.3
775,9
367.5
406 .4
399 .0
406 . 0 403 . 1
319.8
335.5
343.6
343.9
335.9
617.0
627.2
591.0
604.9
637.4
464.2
456.1
466.7
462.5
469.9

0 5
-0,8
-1.8
-2.4
2.0
0.4

- 9 7 . 4 -112.6
-129.7 -115.7
448.6
396.5
397.1
450.9
561 2
493 8
566.6
526.9

-73.7
-74.9
547.7
530.1
621 3
605.0

-74.9
-72.6
532.5
519.7
607 5
592.3

-66.2
-74.9
556.8
531.9
623 0
606,9

-67.7
-74.1
618.6
5 87 .'5
686 3
661.6

NA

1986

1989

.S

M

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669
622
618
620
651.
652.

Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States

Bil. dol

do

.
.

..
.
.

3.4
2.0
0.4
9.2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

1.9
0,9
0.7
0.8
2.8
1.6
1.4

1.7
0.6
0.4
0.8
1.6
0 .2
0.

1.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
1.7
1 .2
0.9

200
50
217
213
224
225
227

1.7
0.5
-0.2
-0.3
1.8
0.3
2.2
0.9

1 ,9
0.5
1.0
1.3
2. 1

1,9
1.4
4.1
3.6
0.7
1.0
2.1
1.0

230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239

2 .1
2.1
1. 1
0 .6
7 .7
11.1

240
241
242
243
245
30

1 7
1.3
1.8
2.4
1,7
0.5

0 7
-0.6
-0.7
-2.2
1.6
0.7

26 0
261
262
263
266
267

16.8
18.8
4.5
3.3
1 4
-0.1

3.4
3.8
3.4
3.1
2 6
2.3

-17.1
-22,9
-1.2
0.
1 4
3.6

250
255
252
256
253
257

2 i
2 9

1 5
1 0

NA

220

0.66

A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200
50
217
213
224.
225
227,

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars

. .

A r bil dol
do
A.r., dollars

".

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
.230
231
232.
233
236
238.
237
239.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
Services
Services in 1982 dollars

240
241
242
243
245
30

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3

260
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars

-0.6

1.9
0.9

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

do
do
do
do
do
do

752,8
709 . 1
734.1
690.8
18.7
18.3

769.6
721.1
742 . 0
696 .6
27 ,7
24.5

775.0

719.8
747 .6
700.7
27 .4
19.1

-0.3

-5 .4

of Goods and Services
.. do . ...
do. ..
..do. ..
do.. .
do..
.

.

...do..

A5. Foreign Trade
250.
255.
252.
256.
253
257.

Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3
Exports of goods and services ...
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars.
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

..

.do
...do.

. . .do.. ..
. .vdo.
.,
do..

. .do.

.

-70.8
-73.8
579.7
551.4
650 5
625.2

-54.0
-55.0
605.6
569.7
659 6
624.6

-50.6
-51.2
626.1
587.5
676 6
638.7

A6. National Income and Its Components
220
280
282
284
286.
288

290
295
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving
.
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate1

do
do
do
do
do
do

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest

366 5 4 3 9 7 2 6 3 9 3 3 6 4005 7 4 0 9 7 4 41 85 2 4 2 4 9 6
2 6 9 0 0 9 Q n 7 ft 9 R7 R Q 7 Q <t c i 9 Q Q 7 9 <i rjA i 7 •l 1 1 o 7
^n 7
o
^ 9 ft 1
2 82 0
311 6
m e
11 6
14 6
16 3
13 4
15 7
11 8
16 1
9 8
282.1
298.7
325.3
340.2
328.6
316.3
307.8
330.9
•a o o n
"\ Q 1 ^
331 9
353 6

3412 6

t S 1 1 L.

o 17 n

e

1

4 8
NA

— 26 7
-7.0

1

i

7

2 QA

ft

707

— 16 9
-2.7

-51 0
NA

2 84
286

0.3
1.1
-2.4
0.8
-0,2

NA
NA
-2.3
NA
-0 .3

290
2 95
292
298
293

9

A7. Saving

. .. .do. ..

525.3
553.8
544 .6
562 0
101,8
124.9
. . .do... . -144.1 -110.1
Percent.
3 .2
4.1
...

.do....

. . .do . . .

642 ,4
593 8
144.7
-96.1
4 .2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOF, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.
2
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source-agencies are used if available.




633.4
588.5
134.0
-89.1
3 .9
3

6 6 9 . 8 647 .4
592 8
6 05 ,8
149.6
163.4
- 7 2 . 7 -121.9
4 ,6
4.3

693 .5
5 86 4
205.7
-98.7
5 .6

695.8
593 , 0
200.7
-97.9
5 .4

NA
NA
196.0
NA
5 .1

7. 1
-3 . 2
25.9
23.2
1. 0

Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
' Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart Al. Composite Indexes
July May

Aug. Apt

P

f

Dee. Nov.

Apr, Feb.

Nov. Mar,

P

P T

T

Jin, July July
P I P

Nev.
T

[Fdex: 1982^1001

910. Index of eleven leading kKficators

hi

(tote 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106)
\i A/V

/

-10
-2

/

'10

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(Series 41,47, 51, 57)

930, Index of seven lagging indicators
(Series 62, 77, 91,95,101,109,120)
[9]

+3 ^

\J
+9

ss ee 57

sa §4 as

71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 S3 S3

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60,

10



OCTOBER

1989

ltd)

A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.

P

T

Nov. Mar.

F

T

i. July July Nov.
1
T
P
T

[index: 1967 =^1001
915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36, 99)

916. Profitability (series 19,26,80)

917. Money and financial flows (series 104,106, 111)

(Index: 1982=109
130 T

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
-9

-11

-27

-9

120-

10090
80 =J

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

BCII OCTOBER

1989




11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
Ay?}. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.

P

Dee.

T

P

to
T

P

I

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)

5. Average wtekfy initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale)
L

8, Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials industries (bil. dot) [MI £

32. Vendor performance—slower deiveries diffusion index (percent)

. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (bMol.)

cn

53 m m m &/ m st 60 si si 03 64 m 66
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66.

12



OCTOBER 1989

A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.

P T

Jan. July July
F T P

Apr. Feb.

P

T

Nov.
T

29. New private housing units authorized by local
building permits (index: 1967=100)

r^u Profile'IH' niflllUTiICtUI£t& illkllllCu 0)uCTS ITI''1 !)o£ uOiI3fi

durable goods industries, smoothed1 (bil. dol,)

99, Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
U,L

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)

106, Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil, dol.)
UU

83. Index of consumer expectations2 (index: 1st Q 1966-100)

1952
'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 69, 71, and 97.

ItCII OCTOBER 1989



13

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Dec. Rtov.
P T

Nov.
P

Jan. Jstly My
F T P

^J v
I

41. Employees on nonagricutoiral payrolls (millions)

(cZcl

51, Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (arm, rate, bil, dol)

47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100)

57, Manufacturing and trade sales in
1982 dollars (bit, dol,)
C,C,C

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14



OCTOBER 1989

ItCII

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P
T

Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec. Nov.
P T

Nov.
P

Mar,
T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T

91, Average duration of unemployment (weeks— inverted scale) | Lg,Lg,Ig

i! 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
198L(ioilarsiratio)

f\

w

A , ,

r

.

.

/ M^^J*^j\^ \
m ^ ^
rV.
'

.^

. -_

-

„

Hi

^"^^^Vi
,»,*
"f*^Vr ^^^^

1.81.71.6
1.5-

62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output,,

te, percent)

95, Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income
U.U.Lg

120. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed1
(ann. rate, percent) |Lg,Lg,Lg

S
'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 73, and 97.

BCII OCTOBER

1989




15

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment
,'-!in. Idty My
F T P

Kay.
T

[Marginal Employment Adjustments |
42-

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory woiters,
manufacturing (hours) |L.L,LJ

41-

49-

38*

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nomupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)
Tc
^Mfto

•=-

3-

5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) [L,C,l|

I Job Vacancies |
1.4 -

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number
of persons unemployed (ratio) [y7]f]r

1J-

0.6-

tl/S

Help-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=100)

luP

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

16



OCTOBER 1989

OYOLDCAL IMDBC/WDiS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued

| Comprehensive Employment |
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establisl
(arm, rate, bil. hours) fil"c~c

1104

42. Persons; engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)

s'

Employees on nonagricultural p

1

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing
industries (millions) n~c"

27-

25 «

60 «

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent)

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

ltd)

OCTOBER 1989




17

CYCLICAL
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Jan. July
f» T

My
P

W»v.
T

| Comprehensive Unemployment |

37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)
ta-

il
311-

O-

43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

fu

10-

n45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—invertedjcate)

4-

91, Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

14-

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

1062

S3

64

8g

§6

67

i
i

80 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18



OCTOBER 1989

BCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Jan. July

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

[Comprehensive Output and Income |

50, Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. do).)

3201-

52. Personal income in 1982 doHarsJam. rate, bil. dd)

2M0-

2800-

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
(arm. rate, bit. dol.) | c c c |

mm =

53, Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
and construction (ann, rate, bit dd.) | c c c | = "

Currant data for these series are shown on page 63.

BCII

OCTOBER 1989




19

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
ton li% My
P I P

Ngy.

P

| Industrial Production |

47, Industriproductton (index: 1977 = 100)

73. industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1977 = 100)

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1977-100)

cTt

49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q
(am, rate, bil. dol.)

[Capacity Utilization|
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) |"L,C,U|

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) | L,C,U

Currant data for that* itrlat ar*ihown on p*t«s 63 and 64.

20



OCTOBER 1989

KCII

INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

[Orders and Deliveries!

orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods

6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars
durable goods industries (bil. doi.)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars; consumer
goods and materials industries'(bil. dol.)

25, Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries /; /,
(bil. doi.; MCD moving avg,-4-term)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled of

rabte goods industries

32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries diffusion index (percent)

1962

63

64

i
i

§6

67

§8

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

ltd)

OCTOBER 1989




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
DPS, Nov.

P

Wsv.

T

Mar.

P

T

I Consumption and Trade]

480-

57, Manufacturing and trade sales
in 1982 dollars (fail, dot.)

400*
350300250-

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(bil.doi.)
UTrTl X

75, Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: 1977-100)

120-

10080460 3140J20-

59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. dpi.)

100-

flul] \

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bil, dot.)

foul

\

140-

z

55, Personal consumption expenditures,
automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dd.)

100-

so-

licicl

58. Index of consumer sentiment1 (1st Q 1966=100)
100*

;/«
1062 03

04

m

£

w^\,.

^
Jg

^V

I/

76

1989

tThls is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22



OCTOBER 1989

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Dec. Nov.
P
T

Jan. July

Nov. Mar.

P

I Formation of Business Enterprises]

I

F

T

July Nov.

P

1
1

.^x*' '*^^^
<J~

T

/

-,^^^__^^^
^^'^^^^^^^^H

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)

IOT =

140-

100-

60-

13. New business incorportions (thousands)

55
§©
45

ao
35

[Business Investment Commitments|

30
21

20 -

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
1982 dollars (bil, dol,)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars

so
4g

27, Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bit, dol.)

40
35-

30 -

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (fail, dol.) |L,L,L|

10 J
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings (mil. sq. ft, of floor space; MCD moving avg.—5-term)1

10070-

1962

63

64

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

ltd)

OCTOBER 1989




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Ja;i July
P T

fo-y
P

!fey.
T

[Business Investment Commitments—Con. I
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. doL)
C

11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. do*,)

[Business Investment Expenditures|

100. Expenditures in 1982 dolars for new plant and equipment,
Q(an).ratebiLdoL)

61. Expenditures in current (Mars for new plant and
equipment, Q (arm. rate, biL dot,)

—

[IT

69. Machinery and equipment sales ami
business construction expenditures
(am. rate,bildoL) |c,U,L

76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1977=100)

s3

©4

m

S©

87

68

6S

7

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24



OCTOBER

1989

ltd*

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Dec.
P

Nov.
P

Nov.
T

[Business Investment Expenditures—Cdn7|

Mar.
T

Jan. July

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

,

Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bii, do!.)
400-

Producers' durable equipment, Q |C,Lg,C
20®150-

[Residential Construction Commitments;and investment|
28. New private housing units started (ann. rate, millions)
2.2-

29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
(index:l967=100)
^fiTTI

1! 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bif. dol.)

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

BCI»

OCTOBER

1989




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

| Inventory Investment
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. dd)

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (aim. rate, bil. dot.; moving avg,—4-term1)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(ami. rate, bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on
hand and on order (bil. dol,; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

l
Thts is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



OCTOBER 1989

BCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Nov.
P ,

Mar.
T

Jan. July
F T

July
P

Nov.
T

j|inventories on Hand and on Order)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (bjl. doJ.)
[

71, Manufacturing and trade inventories
in current dollars (foil, dd.)

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
(ratio)

1.81.71.61.51.43Q0-

2SO-

78. Manufacturers'inventories, materiais and supplies on hand
, and on order (bil. dd») [t:.:Lg,Lg|
———

220^
180-

140-

100-

88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

BCD

OCTOBER 1989




27

L INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Dee. Nov.
P
7

Stow,
P

Mar.
T

.98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials
,/j:
)
(percent; MCP.moving avg.—6'term) [L,L,L[

^il ** "

~__.

-

11
H - Ii iV -=
ij *fc~• if

'

V- -

- -•. 1- -

•

-

- -

! 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

•J * \PWK
^T

>\

'.

4
' U«

^ i/^'^jp

_ . i= y {Vj / ' •""" """^ '
/? \

^
••

|L,L,L|i
.? '

/\
'»

* ^ IV V t S & i r ^

.

i/

- b*

"

^?
"

""

,t
"v^i^»W^v I

~" "

T. ___{
"~"
I

UJ
y

_

V^

*4*

+,***

o.
;;*

<].
4D(!«
350-

23. Spot market pnc«, raw industrial material (index: 1967-100)

3011 *

?m«

19, Stock prices, 500 cotnmofi stocks (index; 1941-43-10)

180 «

18, Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
(am, rate, ULikU.) [uJ]

[Profits and Profit Margins]

«^;o *
,tu *
?(SO«

i^«
16. Corporate profits after tax in current doflars, Q
(am.nrt8,biLdoL)
i

®§

69

7@

71

72

73

74

7B

7i

77

7©

79

8©

©1

§g

1

This series Is smoothed by an autoregressive-movlng-avorage filter developed by Statistics Canada.
'Beginning with data for June 1981, this Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for those series are shown on page 69,

28



OCTOBER

1989

BCD

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P

to.
T

Dec.

P

Nov.
T

11 Profits andProfit IVIargins-fCon.
80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. do).)

Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dpi.)

|2. Ratto, corporate domestic profits after tax tojcorpgratedomestic
income, Q (percenf*"
~
---—*• — -

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) |U,L,l|

^

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations,' Q (cents) |L,L,L
7 <3

^wA/ V±XJ

I
.

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
sector, Q (index: 1977=100)

r
[Cash Fiows]
35, Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q _.
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q

1962 63
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

OCTOBER

1989




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July My
F T P

Nav.
T

[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share I

63. Unit labor cost, business sector., Q
(index: 1977-100)

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of jross domestic product
in 1982 dollars, mxifinandal corporations, Q (dollars)
Le.Ln.Le '

~

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1977=100)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,
Q (percent)

1962

S3

64

OB

66

(37

68

7©

71

72

8@

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



OCTOBER 1989

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
P

Jan. July

Nov. Mar.

Dec. Nov.

T

P

F

T

T

July

Nov.

T

P

85. Change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCD moving avg,~6-term)
.

;it

|l'H-JI< _...

^

. _.-f_

vft^AJ^^^^ ^..L^^—— j .
!J-^
,
—«-

i

i

pr*;' f

•

t^~ r

~^=|--i^^i~^™--^™SSl^^^

jft , ... fei^ ....._ •=* u f

f

51

^

t'-"

—^J^-.

^^^ *=— —

102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
• • • - >«" f^^fe*-,?, -yt=^£^B

;

w4/

-&*U~*

104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) L,L

105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml, Q (ratio)

cZc
Velocity of Money]

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCII

OCTOBER 1989




31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Des.

Now.

Now.

Mar.

T

P

T

P

| Credit Flows |

jjn inly

F

T

July

Now.

P

T

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance compares (ami, rate, bil. doJ.)

142, Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.;
! MCO moving avg.—ftemi) |"[~[~[

113. Net change in consumer instalment credit (ann. rate, bil. dot,;
MOD moving avg,—6-term) f]T[

111. Change in business and consumer credt outstanding
(ann. rate, percent)

110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets, Q (ann, rate, bil. dot)

§4

©§

60

67

68

69

7©

71

Current data for thate series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32



OCTOBER

1989

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec. Nov.
P
T

Jan. July

July

Nov.

P T

P

T

| Credit Difficulties |

*. 1!

14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.inverted scale; MCD moving avg —6-term)

L „ mn

2
1

a 1

JSrf Wife! U> i j tl., SL\[

I

T

]f; *

» Ulf l 111.
i

T !

!

i) T f

i' f - —~H

39. Percent of consumer installment toans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent—inverted scale)
|LLL|
^
^
^

2.0-j

Jflf
2.4-1

^^^:i
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale)
-,U,U

-7^

0

-2-

-!<=
0=

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bit, dolj

19S2

©3

S4

SS

6^

SJ

@S

80

81

S2

83

84

35

86

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

!!€!»

OCTOBER

1989




33

CYCLICAL
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec. Nov.

P

T

Jan. July

Nov.

F

P

T

July

P

to.

T

I Interest Rates]
15-

119, Federal funds rate (percent)

1312II-

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(percent) '"IC.Lg.Lgl"" " " "
'

116, Yield on new issues of Wgh-gradiKorpoirate bwids
(percent) f
'

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent)

118, Secondary market yields onTHB'^ggesTperce'rit)' "j/
Le.Lg.Lef Z I I
HI
V/

1962

63

S4

SS

0®

g?

iS

6S

1

Currant data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34



OCTOBER

1989

BCII

INDICATORS
B |

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec.

Nov.

Mov.

P

T

P

(War.
T

Jan, July
P I

July
P

Nov.
T

[Interest Rates-^Con.
109. Average prime

67. Bank rates on short-term business Joans. Q (percent)

[Outstanding Debt)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars
(bildol.)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
dollars (bil. dd.)

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. dol.)
Lg,Lg,Li

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income
(percent)

69

§3

70

71

72

73

74

7S

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

BCII

OCTOBER 1989




35

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
P T

950, Eleven leading indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—_)

100-1

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo, span—, 1-mo. span-*—)

952. Seven lagging indicator components (6-mo, span—^ 1-mo, span—-)

o«i
961, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9*mo. Span—^ 1-mo. span—-)

1601

962. Initial claims for unempJoyment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo. sparu—, 1-mo. span—

QJ

963, Employees on private nonagricutoiral payrolls, 349 industries
(6-mo. span^», 1-mo. span—)

1062

S3

©4

m

m

i?

§S

74

7S

76

77

§7

@g

Current data for theto series are shown on page 74.

36



OCTOBER

1989

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P

Dec. Nov.

P

T

j

i

jj

.

Nov.
T

!

964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
1
(9-mo, span—, 1-rtk). span—-)

965. Newly approved capital appropriations In 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing industries (4-Q moving avg****

40-

966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. spaa__, 1-mo. span—-)
10© ^

9i67. Spot market pfices,Ii3 raw industrial
(9-mo. SpanJL-, 1-mo. span—)

rniferis

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 39-82 industnes
(9-mo. span-tL, 1-mo. span—)

960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-0 span)

67

1962

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

BCII

OCTOBER 1989




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Jan. July
P T

July
P

.ten. Jaly

fttov,
T

P

I

July

Km,

P

T

Actual
Anticipated

| Percentrising|

[Percent rising]
970, Expenditures for new plant and
equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

AAV. ,\
M WM3

§921

(b) Later projections

975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
(c) Early projections

80-

70-

60-

soo

40-

971 New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
90 -

100-

SO-

90-

70-

972, Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1

70-

978, Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

1977 78

7i

80

81

81

83

84

85

iS

S7

S8

I97J

78

79

§©

SI

©t

S3

84

§§

ii

S7

SS 1980

i This Is a eopyrlghtod series used by permission; ft may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on survey* of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for thoso series are shown on page 76,

38



OCTOBER 1989

ItCII

CYCLICAL
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
Dec. Nov.
P
T

Wov.
P

Mar.
T

Jan. July
F T

July
P

Nov.
T

1-month spans —3-month spans —•

[ Percent change at annual rate]
910c. Composite index of eleven leading indicators

30 J

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators -f

930c. Composite index of seven lagging indicators

47c, Index of industrial production

SOc. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)

usr

V

w

+10
-10

48c. Employee hours in nonagricuftural establishments

51c. Personal income tess transfer payments in 1982 dollars

+ 20+ 100-

V

-10-

=201962

63

64

©i

@©

@7

©@

@9

7©

Jl

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

ItCII

OCTOBER

1989




39

IMPORTANT
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
Jars, July JuSy
P I P

Dee,, Nov.
F
I

(ftov,
T

200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (am. rate, fail, del.)

223. Persona) income in currant dollars
(am. rate,fail,dol.) \

224, Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (arm. rate, fail, dol.)

mm4960-

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, fail, dol,)
•

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate; bil, dol,) |

mm-

-

Lnsposabie personal income in 198
dollars, Q (aim, rate, bit. dol,)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, thoos. dol.)

LLL rer capita disposable personal income in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)

77

78

84

SB

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



OCTOBER 1989

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Dee.
P

Nov.
T

Nov.
P

Jan, July

July

Mow.

P T

P

T

| Annual rate, billion dollars (current))
Personal consumption expenditures—

1962

6:

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81

ItCII

OCTOBER

1989




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMY
A I

_

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Jan. July My
F T P

feu,
T

[Annual rate, bion dolars (current) |

Gross private domestic investment—

240. Total, Q —/

245. Change in business inventories, Q

Annual rate, bion dolars (1982)|

30, Change in business inventories, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

42



OCTOBER 1989

ltd)

A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Nov.
P

Mar.
T

Jan. 1%

F

T

Juiy

Nov.

P

T

| Annual rate, billion dollars (current)]

iZOO-i

Government purchases of goods and services-

noo1000900 «
800700-

500 -

300-

200-

266, State and local
government, Q

I Annual rate, billion doUars (1982)|

1000T

267. State and local government, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

BCII

OCTOBER 1989




43

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
IA I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Dee. Nov.

Annual rate, bion doiars (current)!

659 -

goo -

303 4SO400-

a^fl -

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

253, Imports of goods and services, 0
100-

250, Net exports of goods and services, Q

!)()
-100-1SO-

Annual rate, btton dollars (1982))

257. Imports of goods and services, Q
256. Exports of goods and services, Q

255, Net exports of goods and services, Q

1962

S3

S4

68

6S

67

6i

69

70

72

73

Current data for those series are shown on page 82.

44



OCTOBER 1989

BCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT— Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Jan. jy!y
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

Annual rate, bion dollars (current) [

220. National income, Q

Compensation of employees, Q

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital Cbnsumption adjustments, Q J" ~

288. Net interest, Q

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments^

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, 0

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

BCD OCTOBER 1989



45

IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving

Annual rate, bion doiars (current)

49-

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q

3

S4

m

m

©J

SS

it

1

as

m

BJ

ss

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



OCTOBER 1989

KCII

OTHER
A I

!

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Dec. Nov.
P
T

I

| Percent of GNRI

!.

I

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Wov.
T

||

235, Personal consumption expenditures, Q

69 J

268. State and local government purchases
j
qf goods andjervices^
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
10-

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q

249, Residential fixed investment, 0
247. Change in business inventories, 0

251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

[Percent of National Income]

64. Compensation of employees, Q

70-

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-

283, Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
289. Net interest, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1962 63

64

©5

i©

<S>7

5-

0-

68

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

KCI»

OCTOBER 1989




47

OTHER IMPORTANT
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart 61. Price Movements
J3J, ,"j;!y
P

I

My

Nov.

P

I

P

I Index: 1982-1001

T

P

310c. Implicit price deflator for poss I Percent change at annual rate |
<~— national product (1 Qipn)

310. Implicft price dflftetor for gr
national product,
_311c. Fixed-weighted price Index, gross domestic business product
"" (1-Qspan)

"°'f

^ICM"

311. Fixtd-wefcWed price index,
gross domestic 1
Producer price indexes—

| 6-month spans]

330c, All commodities

Producer price indexes—
330. All e

335c. Industrial commodities

331c. Crude materials for
further processing

335, Industrial commodities

332c, Intermediate materiais, supplies, and components
331. Crude material for further processing

~7\ ^

~

Iwtermeilate materials

dna componenis

V-2L

333c. C^jttal equipment

334, Finished consumer foods
334c. Finished consumer goods

1977 78

If

S©

i
i

it

S3

84 SB

83

§4

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84,85, and 86.




OCTOBER 1989

BCII

B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued
Dec.

Jan, July
P I

Wov.

P

T

Jufy
P

Nov.
T

Consumer price indexes—

120110100-

70-

320. AJj urban consumers^

69-

40-

320c. All urban consumers (6-month span)

| Percent change at-annual rate]
+20-

322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month spar)

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
I index: 1977

341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisor^
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
V

v

,

. t;.

_ -ET^T; ^a,

^ -.

10080 -

L Average hourly earnings of production or
on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)

346. Real average hourly compensation, ali employees,
norttarm business sector, Q v
"*
•"^— — • •
345. Average hourly compensation, all
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)

1962 63

64

80

SI

82

33

34

85

86

B7

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
,

lt€l»
AW

OCTOBER 1989




49

IMPORTANT IE(
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart 62. Wages and Productivity—Continued
tfei:..

ikil*

1—2^—2!LJ change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1—

n c ange

I

l

340c, Current-dollar earnings
aj

,-

-H>-. -. .r

, * J * /; . in>^lW

Change in average hourly compensation, aJI employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
4

345c. Current-dollar compensation

4 Jfe

4-ouarter spans

-A,,- ,= •. - * £pS*\~^ j

4-10

—I-quarler spans (ann. rate)
346c. Real compensation
A

,

1-quarter spans (ann. rate)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—

343. Average first-year changes, Q (arm, rate)

X

349. Average changes over life of
contract; Q (ann. rate)

I index: 1977 ^1001
| Productivity |
358, Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
X
370. Output per hour, all persons,
btmncss sector, Q

'

"

370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q
^ ^
^ ,
^-*• 1-quarterspans (arm,rate)
?
1
v

/ \ " . . . . . - . , , .^.--.-.

nZ^vNtA JU« J-W*

^W ! > yM '

Z±li!^i^Vtf^

^

^

"

63

64

v

CIB a© <sj ©i m y©

^51 .

iX^ - = / i = » -

A

| Percent change |

/* A

jj\

45

.\pr -,

'/ V

,.

''

..

_^

__

..

'

._ ._

y'

__

„„

,

"4-quarter spans
4-quarte

„,_.

__

_ ....

1

Adjusted for overtime (tn manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50



OCTOBER 1989

BCD

15 O^raiTTANT ECONOMIC fWSUflEi
C I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Dec.
P

Stov.
T

Jan. July
T

July
P

Nov.
T

441. Civilian labor force (millions)

442. Civilian employment (millions)

Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)—

^ajes 2Q years an(j over

453, Both sexes 16-19 years of age

452, Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (millions)—
37. Persons unemployed

445. Females 20 years and over
444, Males 20 years —
and over

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions)

448. Number of persons employed part time for economic
reasons (millions)

ItCII OCTOBER

1989




51

MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
Be:;, Nav.
P
T

Mar."
T

Now.

P

[Annual rate, bion doiars (current)

502, Federal Government qpmfihirts, Q

501. Federal Government receipts, Q

500. Fed0ni Government surplus or deficit, Q

$11, State and local government receipts, Q

511 State and local government expenditures, Q

510. State and (oca) government surplus or deficit, Q

1962

S3

©$

©^

©§

©?

§§

72

73

74

7B

76

Current dotn fer those series ore shown on page 90.

52



OCTOBER 1989

KCII

D!
I £) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Dec.
P

Wov.
T

Jan. July

P

I

July

Hw.

P

T

[Advance Measures of Defense Activity
~£

3©-

gross obligations incurred
ng avg.—6-term)

||

Defense Department prime contract awards
(bil. dei; MCD moving avg.—6-term

12®-

543, Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil, dol)

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

71

72

73

74

75

76

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

BCD OCTOBER 1989



53

OTHER IMPORTANT
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Now.

P

Mar,.
T

|Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity!
557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment

559. Manufacturers inventories, defense products
(bil. doi.)

561, Manufacturers' unfilled orders,
defense products (bil. do).)

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military
assistance (bil. doi.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. doi.)

1962

63

64

6S

@6

67

Si

Current data for those series ore shown on page 91.

54



OCTOBER 1989

BCD

*3T iC©W©K ME
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Dec.
P

nw.
T

Nov.
P

Mar,
T

Jan. July

July

Nov.

P T

P

T

[Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con.|
570. Employment, defense products industries (millions)

2.01.81.61.41,21.0-

Defense Department personnel (millions)—
3.53.0-

577. Military personnel on active duty

2.52.0-

1.5-

578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment j
1.0-

400350300-

[National Defense Purchases|

250200-

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)

150-

100-

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)

19S2

®3

®4

®S

®S

§7

©@

88

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

KCII

OCTOBER

1989




55

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart El. Merchandise Trade
Im, My Inly
F T P

te.
T

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (to!, dd)
-A*

$04. Exports of domestic ajncuttural products
(fail, dd,)
^-606. Exports of nonelectrical midiinery (ML <W.)

612. General imports (bil doi.)

614. Imports of petroleum arid petroleum
products (bil. dd)
bib. imports of automootm and parts mi dol.)

77

78

7S

S0

81

82

S3

§4

§§

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56



OCTOBER 1989

KCII

©TIM I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Wov.
T

Nov.

P

Mar.

T

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

|| Annual rate, bion dollars |
W//A Excess of receipts
[;77:.1 Excess of payments

7501
650§5i450-

Goods and services-

aao667. Balance on goods and services, Q

25Q-

150-

622, Balance on merchandise trade, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

BCD OCTOBER

1989




57

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production
lm. July

P

I

July

Kov.

P

I

Iffiex: 1977=1001
Industrial production—

[index: 1977=100|
Industrial production—

722, United Kingdom
110-

Hi! -

723. Canada

130 -

110-

v^-*^

;

©

yg)

§©

il
l

§2

§3

Current data for these series are shown on page 94,

58



OCTOBER

1989

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Jan. July

P

July

Nov.

P

Chart F3. Stock Prices

T

T

Jan. July

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

I Percent change at annual rate
Consumer prices—

1977 78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1977

78

79

80

81

82

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

OCTOBER 1989




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Q COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

910. Index of
eleven leading
indicators (series
1,5,8,19,20,
29, 32, 83, 92,
99, 106)

930. Index of
seven lagging
indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109, 120)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index l

(1982=100)

(1982 = 100)
1987

(1982-100)

(1982=100)

2

2

2

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29) l

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)

916, Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
HI)

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

108.9
(NA)

104.4
104.6
105.3

119.3
120.8
121.5

148.9
147.0
145.4

121.3
121.3
122.9

144.5
144.1
145.6

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

2

January , . . ,
February
March

136.8
137.6
138.1

119.3
121.0
121.0

112.1
110.9
110.7

106.4
109.1
109.3

April
May
June

,,.

138.3
139.2
140.6

121.1
121.2
121.5

110.7
110.8
111.0

109.4
109,4
109.5

105,3
106.0
106,7

July
August
September ,

142.0
143.3
142.9

122.4
123.0
123.1

110.8
110.7
111.7

110.5
111.1
110.2

107.1
106.4
106.6

October , , . . . . , . .
November
December . . . . . . .

142.3
140.3
139.7

124.9
124.6
126.1

111.8
112.1
111.8

111.7
111.2
112.8

107.2
107,4
H>108.2

121.7
118,6
118.3

147.1
146.8
146.6

January
February . . , . . . , .
March
....

139,3
141.0
141.4

125.2
126.0
126.7

113.4
113.9
114.3

110.4
110.6
110.8

107.1
106,7
106,5

119.0
119,5
119.9

146.9
147.9
149.0

April
May
June

142.0
141.8
144.0

126.9
127.2
128.2

114.6
114.5
114.8

110.7
111.1
111.7

105.5
105,6
105.9

119.5
118.9
120.0

July
August
September

143.0
144.1
143.7

128.6
129.0
129.0

114.5
115.1
115.2

112.3
112.1
112,0

105.5
105.5
105.6

119.9
119.5
(NA)

October ,
November . ,
December . .

144.0
144.1
145.1

130.4
130.3
131.1

115.0
116.4
116.8

113.4
111.9
112.2

105.1
104.9
105.6

0)146.0
145.6
144.7

131.8
132.0
132.0

118.1
119.3
120.1

111.6
110.6
109.9

(NA)

145.8
144,2
144.0

132.8
132.5
132.8

124.2
i>126.0
124.7

144.5
144.2
145.4

1988

D151.7
150,7
151.1

150,3
150.1
147.4
146.9
146.6
(NA)

1989
January
February . . . . . . . .
March
...
April
May
June

,

July
August . . .
September . . . . . . .

144.0
144.7
P145.0

132.6
133.9
[H) 133.9
3

119.3
120.3
[H)120.5

111.3
110.1
110.2

120.0
120.3
"119.7

110.5
111.3
pill, 9

October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§>, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |H): Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pates 10 and 11.
'These series reached high values before 1987: series 940 (116.1) in January 1984 and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
S
0xeludes series 57, for which data are not available.
''Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60



OCTOBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, L,L

L, C, L

I.C.L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing

L, Lg, U

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1

(Hours)

(Hours)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

(Thous.)

L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

U,C,C

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

(1967-100)

1987

January . . .
February . .
March

40 9
41 1
41 0

3.6
3 6
3.7

355
350
338

0.512
0.531
0.572

136
140
150

187 54
188 59
188 56

April
May
June

40.6
41.0

329
325
325

0.583
0.601
0.614

149
153
152

187.66
189.72
189.97

....

41 0

3.5
3.8
3 7

July
, .
August
September .

41 0
41 1
40 6

3 8
3 8
3 7

321
299
293

0 626
0 663
0 661

153
161
158

190.41
191.22
188.29

October
November
December

41.2
41.2
41.1

3.9
3.9
3.8

294
300
311

0.669
0.682
0.662

162
[H>162
155

192.23
192.77
192.93

January . .
February . .
March

41 1
41 0
41.0

3 9
3 7
3.8

348
314
303

0.652
0.673
0.691

153
156
158

193.12
194.48
194.35

April
May
June

41.2
41.1
41.1

3.9
3.9
3.9

299
305
294

0.701
0.700
0.711

157
160
156

195.81
195.44
196.43

July
August
September

41 1
41 0
41.1

3 9
3 9
3.9

321
298
290

0.714
0.700
0.688

159
160
153

197.24
196.77
197.53

October
November
December

41.2
41.2
41.0

4.0
3.9
3.9

E>290
297
301

E>0.735
0.716
0.731

161
158
161

198.76
198.14
199.16

41.1
41.1

3.9
3 9
E>4-0

296
303
318

0.691
0 729
0 733

156
155
151

200.31
200.32
200.33

3.9
3.8
3.8

299
312
328

0.723
0 707
0.667

159

147

202.10
9nn AR
201.37

3.9

338
316
320

0.687
rO.681
pO.660

150
r!47
p!46

|H>r202.54
r201.59
p202.48

1988

1989

January
February
March
..

41 0

April
May
June

E>41.3
41.0
41.0
41.0
40.9

July
August
September

p41.0

r3.7
p3.8

1 R?

October . . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

OCTOBER

1989




61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
|

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Employment— Continued

u,c,c

Timing Class

42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities

Year
and
month

{Thous.)

C,C,C

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

(Thous.)

L,C,U

40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)

Comprehensive Unemployment

U, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age
(Percent)

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

Lg, U, Lg

43. Unemployment rate

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

(Weeks)

Lg, Lg, Lg

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)

1987
107 823
108,066
108,238

100,798
101,015
101,254

24,473
24,532
24,551

60.28
60.39
60.43

7,904
7,848
7,804

6.6
6.6
6.5

2.6
2.6
2.5

14.9
14.5
15.0

1.8
1.8
1.7

April
May
June

108 566
109 180
109 06^

101,582
101 777
101 956

24 573
24 617
24 616

60 56
60 90
60 72

7 605
7 578
7 360

6.4
6.3
6.2

2 5
2 4
2 4

15,0
14.8
14.9

1.8
1.7
1,7

July
August
September

109 377
109 890
109,704

102 293
102 525
102,683

24 701
24 759
24,794

60 83
61 00
60.88

7 271
7 226
7,112

6 1
6 0
5.9

2 3
2 3
2.2

14 2
14 3
14.2

16
16
1.6

October
November
December

109,998
110,320
110,528

103,213
103,470
103,791

24,896
24,966
25 021

61.01
61.09
61.19

7,204
7,067
6,961

6,0
5.9
5.8

2.1
2.1
2.E

14.0
14.1
14.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

1 1 n 7QQ

24 935
25 033
25,098

fil ?Q
fil ^fi

110,948

103 970
104 414
104,682

61.24

6 QRO
6 QQ?
6,807

5 8
5 7
5,6

2 3
2 2
2.2

14 2
14 1
13.8

1 4
1 4
1.4

111 473
111 293
111 880

104,901
105,091
105 561

25 161
25 179
25 265

61 49
61 31
61 58

6 668
6 800
6 523

5.5
5.6
5 4

2 1
2 1
2 1

13.5
13.8
13 2

13
1 3
1 3

111 974
112 061
112 194

105 768
105 954
106 207

25 323
25 303
25 313

61 54
61 60
61 64

6 624
6 797
6 614

5 4
5 6
5 4

2 1
2 1
2 0

13 5
13 5
13 5

1 3
1 3
1 3

112 335

106 475

6 518

5 3

January ,
February
March

....

1988
January
February ,
March

...,
...

April
May
June
July
August .
September

....

October
November
December . . . . . . . .

m

n?^

ei DC

6

CC-3

C A

6,554

5.3

2 0
2 0
2.0

13 4
1? fi
12.8

1 9

61.83

25,626
25,629
25,646

62.13
62.16
62.27

6,716
6,328
E>6,128

5.4
5.1
i>5. 0

2.0
2,1
2.1

12.7
12.1
12.4

1.2
1.1
1.1

108,101
108 310
108 607

25,671
oc £70

62.22
62 ? 2
rn\ en .35
JH/Di oj-

6,546
6 395

5.3
5 2

2.1
G)2 0
2 1

12.7
11 8

r!08 767
r!08 855
[H)pl09,064

r25,669
[H)r25,696
p25,588

1fl£ A9A

107,097

25 384
pc Acn
25,513

61 69

?flQ

112,816

113,411
113,630
113,930

107,442
107,711
107,888

114,009
114,102
|H) 114, 445
114,240
114 290
114,199

m

1 3
1.2

1989
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August . . , . . . .
September

9 jr C/l O

62 26
62.28
62.16

6

CC-I

6 497
6 421
6,584

C

-5

5 2
5 2
5.3

2 2
2 1
2.1

[u\ 11 , 1
Urj/ii 1
12 0

11 3
11.4

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.

M)ata exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62



OCTOBER 1989

1,2
11

fuN 1 .no
Wi

1 2

1 i

1.1

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^9 PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income
C,C,C

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars

C,C,C

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

52. Constant
(1982) dollars

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Personal income
223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C,C,C

C.C.C

53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C,C,C

47. Index of
industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

C.C.C

73, Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

(1977 = 100)

C, L,l

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1977 = 100)

crctc
49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

3,78316

3,640.8
3,680.2
3,699.8

3,109.1
3,129.4
3,132.8

2,650.6
2,670.7
2,675,2

542.4
541.6
544.6

126.2
127.1
127.4

129.3
130.8
131.5

132.7
132.9
133.7

l,622!e

April
May
June

3,823!5

3,718.5
3,734.1
3,745.4

3,132.7
3,132.6
3,129.0

2,674.8
2,670.5
2,670,9

538.5
540.3
540.4

127.4
128.2
129.1

130.9
131.4
132.0

134.6
135.7
136.9

I,645i9

July
August
September

3,872!s

3,770.5
3,798.7
3,817.4

3,144.7
3,152.4
3,152.3

2,685.9
2,695.7
2,696,5

541.3
544.3
547.0

130.6
131.2
131.0

133.5
133.8
133.7

138,5
138.8
138.6

l,679!i

October
November
December

3,935!6

3,894.3
3,886.8
3,944.9

3,205.2
3,188.5
3,236.2

2,748.8
2,733.2
2,779.3

549.4
551.8
552.1

132.5
133.2
133.9

136.8
136,7
137.3

138.1
139.6
141.3

1,728!5

January
February
March

3,974!8

3,921.9
3,944.2
3,979.5

3,209.4
3,225.0
3,240.6

2,741.2
2,755.9
2,767.1

551.3
553.9
561.5

134.4
134.4
134.7

137.9
138.4
138,8

141.4
141.1
141.7

1,746!?

April
May
June

4,0l6!7

4,007.1
4,023.3
4,049.4

3,244.6
3,244.6
3,260.4

2,773.4
2,776.2
2,791.2

558.8
558.0
561.5

135.4
136.1
136.5

139.7
141.5
141.7

142.3
142.1
142.6

1,76?!9

July
August
September

4,042!7

4,079.8
4,094.2
4,118.6

3,271.7
3,275.4
3,276.5

2,802.0
2,805.0
2,808.2

562.4
560.9
562.8

138.0
138.5
138.6

142.9
143.2
143.8

144.6
145.1
145.3

I,782i3

October
November
December

4,069!i

4,180.4
4,168.9
4,206.3

3,312.5
3,298.2
3,314.7

2,843.3
2,828.6
2,845.3

569.0
565.5
563.9

139.4
139.9
140.4

144.6
145.2
145.7

146.3
146.7
147.1

l,789!i

January
February
March

4,106!8

4,273.1
4,319.5
4,360.7

3,346.2
3,377.2
3,390.9

2,868.0
2,897.0
2,905.5

566.1
566.7
E>572.3

140.8
140.5
140.7

146.2
145.9
145.8

148,5
148.1
148.6

1,823*.2

April
May
June

4,132'.5

4,387.1
4,396.3
4,417.5

3,390.3
3,384.4
3,398.1

2,908.2
2,902.8
2,912.8

566.4
563.4
565.3

141.7
141.6
r!42.0

146.9
147.1
r!47.4

149.6
149.5
r!50.5

1,843 '.9

[H>p4,158!i

r4,443.8
r4,456.4
{H>p4,469.2

r3,407.8
r3, 420.1
E>p3, 422.1

r2,922.7
r2,932.4
E>p2,933.2

r566.3
r569.7
p568.5

142.0
B>142.4
p!42.3

r!47.0
E>rl47.6
p!46.9

150.9
r!51.1
i>pl51.3

E>pl,857!6

1988

1989

July
August
September . . . . . . .
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

OCTOBER 1989




63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

E

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process , . , , . . , ,

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Continued

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class . . . . . .

L.C.U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing

Year
and
month

Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Orders and Deliveries

i,c r u
84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials

1, L,l

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

(Percent)

L.L.L

(Bil. dol.)

7. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

1,1,1

1,1,1

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, U, U

96. Manufacturers1 unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

32. Vendor
performance—
slower deliveries
l
diffusion index

(Percent)

1987

January
February . . . . . . . .
March

79,6
80.0
80.3

78.7
78.7
78.7

97.34
102.40
104.78

89.79
94.46
96.40

79.68
84.09
84.78

-3,28
-1.26
1.19

367.42
366.16
367.35

51.5
51.2
51.9

April
May , .
June

79.1
79.3
79.8

107.64
107.92
108.77

98.93
99.01
99.70

83-. 76

....

80.2
80.4
80.8

83.48
85,66

4.55
5.26
4.24

371.90
377.16
381.40

52.8
54,0
56.8

July
....
August
September . . . . . . .

81.5
81.5
81,3

80.6
81.1
81.2

109.94
106.99
109.68

100.40
97.44
99.34

84.02
83.84
85,98

6.04
2.58
1.30

387.44
390.02
391.32

58.9
60.3
61.5

October
November
December . . . . . . .

82.0
82.2
82.6

82.1
82.9
83.6

112.02
111.96
113.19

101.28
100.96
101.61

86.81
85.89
86.86

3.71
3.67
2,01

395.04
398.71
400.72

62.2
64.9
62.7

January . . . . . . . . .
February . .
March . . . . . . . .

82,7
82.6
82,7

83.0
82.3
82.4

113,07
114.16
113.06

100.86
101.56
100.41

83.26
85.42
85.34

3.94
4.33
0.32

404.66
408.99
409.31

62.4
61.3
56.9

April
May . . . . . . . . . . .
June

82.9
83.3
83.3

82.9
83.0
83.2

116.84
115.37
125.44

103.39
101.74
110.23

85.73
87.82
87,78

4.32
0.62
8.92

413.62
414.24
423.16

56.6
65.6

July
August
September

84.0
84,0
84.0

84.4
84.3
84.1

116.11
122.81
119,32

101.67
107.25
103.58

85.15
87.58
87.98

2.99
4.94
1.29

426.15
431.09
432.38

59.0
57.7
55,1

October
November
December . . . . . . .

84.3
84.4
84,4

84.7
84.9

122.79
123.04
|H>132.15

106.50
106.25
|H>113.63

87.86
89.81
[H>92.68

4.35
3.16
7.97

436.73
439.90
447.87

54.6
61.6
52.6

84.3
84.1

84.6
84.0
83,7

128.48
124.11
125.38

109.81
105,71
106.61

90.76
89.02
86.32

4.90
3.18
4.94

452.77
455.95
460,90

54.0
53.3
51.2

84.5
84.3

84.2
83.8

r84.4

rS3.6

129.37
123.52
125.14

110.01
r!04.68
105.87

89.69
r87.82
86.93

6.04
0.56
3.42

466.94
467.50
470.92

53.2
49.3
47.5

84.1

r83 . 7
r83.8
p83.4

r!22.03
r!26.82
p!26.68

r!03.24
r!07.12
p!06.27

r82.90
r90,70
p87.15

r475.83
r474.27
[H^p476.15

46.9
44.9
43.8

....

1988

[8)85.1

59. 2

1989

January
February
March

(H}84.7
,

April
May
June
July
August
September

,

r84.1
p83,7

r4.92
r-1.56
pi. 88

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
1

Thesc series reached high values before 1987: series 25 (9.31) in March 1984 and scries 32 (67.5) in November 1983.

64



OCTOBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C.C.C

C,C,C

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol)

C, L, C

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

(1977 = 100)

u, L; u

C, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

0

Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued
|

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

L,C,C

U, L

L, L,L

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment 1 2
©

12. Index of
net business
formation

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(IstQ
1966 = 100)

(1967-100)

1,1, 1

13. Number of
new business
incorporations 1

(Number)

1987
January
February
March

424,210
441,092
441,073

419,538
433,469
431,581

125.5
126.4
126.7

117Q,819
124,126
124,455

109,294
114,507
114,179

119!s

90.4
90.2
90.8

118.1
120.5
122.0

55,348
58,495
60,248

April
May
June

442,281
445,174
448,931

431,209
432,439
433,700

125.5
127.3
127.2

125,353
125,520
127,263

114,478
114,317
115,274

129*3

92.8
91.1
91.5

120.7
119.8
120.3

57,471
56,226
57,613

July
August
September

450,906
455,157
460,280

434,938
437,381
440,943

128.9
129.4
127.7

128,110
130,390
129,427

115,937
117,574
116,391

145.'8

93.7
94.4
93.6

120.4
121.5
122.8

57,330
57,650
57,568

October .
November
December

460,066
459,261
462,059

439,739
437,546
439,273

129.0
129.4
129.8

128,235
128,541
129,870

115,112
115,180
116,267

132!6

89.3
83.1
86.8

121.8
122,8
123.2

55,504
56,681
55,226

January
February
March

462,173
466,052
474,260

439,102
442,538
448,078

131.2
131.3
131.2

130,364
131,846
133,797

116,709
118,036
119,249

143! 6

90.8
91.6
94.6

124.0
124.1
125.4

56,108
56,475
60,656

April
May
June

475,218
478,467
486,226

446,585
447,726
451,956

131.9
132.7
133.0

133,077
134,003
135,060

118,081
118,482
119,311

145^7

91.2
94.8
94.7

122.7
124.3
123.7

54,670
58,046
55,620

July
August
September

486,289
r491,892
r492,442

449,198
r452,694
r450,929

134.2
135.0
134.8

135,741
r!35,800
r!35,715

119,490
rl!9,227
rl!8,632

14CK9

93.4
97.4
97.3

123.3
124.5
124.2

r56,915
59,472
55,778

October
November
December

498,846
501,400
506,186

455,745
456,937
459,688

136.4
136.8
138.2

137,842
139,529
139,189

120,071
121,435
120,719

146! 6

94.1
93.0
91.9

124.6
123.2
125.5

56,557
54,530
58,516

January
February
March

511,881
507,328
507,555

458,846
454,219
451,603

138.5
138.7
138.4

140,040
139,428
139,516

120,724
120,300
119,756

142!7

97.9
95.4
94.3

r!25.5
r!25.9
E>rl28.0

58,499
58,724
60,133

April
May
June

517,745
518,088
515,695

458,774
457,465
456,223

139.5
139.2
H>rl39.a

141,413
142,543
142,500

120,351
120,902
120,865

144 .'5

91.5
90.7
90.6

r!25.0
r!25.6
r!25.9

55,245
57,738
r57,536

r511,144
E>p526,789
(NA)

r451,795
Dp466,57?.
(NA)

138.9
r!39.3
p!39.5

r!43,55S
r!44,511
E>Pl45,212

r!21,657
r!23,093
H>pl23,480

®p!54.7

92.0
89.6
95.8

r!24.4
r!22.6
p!22.6

p54,519
(NA)

1988

•

1989

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23.
^hese series reached high values before 1987: series 58 (101.0) in March 1984 and series 13 (65,318) in December 1986.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's
Survey Research Center.

OCTOBER 1989



65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
|

Minor Economic
Process . .

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class . , . , , .

L, 1,1

I, I, I

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

10. Current
dollars

(Bit. dol.)

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

U,L

L.L.L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

U, Lg, U

UC.U

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1 2

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space 3

(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

(Bil. dol.)

C, lg, Lg

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol,)

1987

January
February
March . .

31.78
31.99
31.99

35.45
36.31
36.21

27.20
27.28
26.88

31.40
32.18
31.73

82.42
73.52
77.97

7.66
6,83
7.24

zi!ii

April
May .
Jung

33.63
34.90
35.47

38.58
39.88
40.28

28.73
30.63
29.75

34.29
36.16
35.30

79.93
78.82
83.17

7.43
7.32
7.73

32!26

July
August . . . . . . . . .
September , , , , , , .

37.49
35.01
34.52

42.82
40.28
40.00

32.28
29.85
29.39

38.32
35.82
35.57

83.00
83.56
84.70

7,71
7,76
7,87

29^56

October
November
December

36.60
35.44
38.27

41.11
40.29
42.96

30.22
30.66
33.03

36.45
36.19
38.44

82.21
76.89
81,64

7.64
7.14
7.58

35^91

38.31
39.54
36.82

43.68
44.64
41.78

33,87
33,82
31.92

39.89
39.79
37.65

77.27
91.15
75,85

7.18
8.47
7.05

30^85

38.95
36.29
40.68

44.85
41.88
46.20

33.75
31.52
35.46

40.45
37.85
41.78

71.02
71.69
75.36

6.60
6,66
7.00

4o!69

41.18
44,39
r39.82

46,51
49.91
r44.12

36.21
38.81
34.86

42.35
45.25
39.99

79.51
75.38
73.37

7.39
7.00
6.82

40^38

38.65
39.98
43.67

43.43
44.53
47.97

34.62
35.82
39.43

40il6
41.07
44.44

70.06
69.90
78.53

6.51
6.49
7.30

45 ',28

January
February . , . , . . . .
March

45.03
41.48
42.64

49.10
44.81
47.67

40.35
37.19
38.14

45.24
41,31
44.02

78.61
70.87
71.37

7,30
6.58
6.63

April
May
June

44.55
41.90
44.07

r48.87
r46.30
r48.00

40.39
37.29
39.15

45,48
42.54
43.98

69.66
75.44
78.18

6.47
7.01
7.26

[H)r45.99
r41.71
p40.42

[HV50.01
' r47.00
p45.81

E>r41.44
r37.16
p35.08

Dr46.30
r43.33
p41.50

77.79
66.89
85.52

7.23
6.21
7.94

69!i7

74! 64

74! 55

78!06

1988

January
February .
March

,.

April
May . . ,
June
July
August
September
October
November . . . . . . .
December

78!H

87^46

9U57

100.* 20

1989

July
August
September

i)p5o;6i
i>pll4^5

(NAJ
(NA)

October
November
December . . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, H.W. Dodge Division. 2Series 9 reached its high value (93.19 square feet and 8.66 square meters) in September 198S. -^Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

66



OCTOBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^f FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, Lg, Lg

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, Lg, U

76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment

(1977 = 100)

C, Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

28. New private housing
units started 1

Gross private nonresidential
-fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,L,L

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
l
permits

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

(1967-100)

L,U

89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

377!o9

380 '.62

381.31
391.14
387.97

138.6
141.7
141.9

430.9

12o!l

3l6'.7

1,840
1,787
1,715

134.8
134.7
135.9

197.' 3

April
May
June

380 ! 08

383!55

394.77
393.41
402.62

142.1
141.7
144.2

445 '.6

117'.7

32?! 9

1,622
1,607
1,583

127.7
119.6
121.4

197*.8

July
August
September

393'.05

40l'.61

412.10
410.61
424.92

145.6
145.6
146.3

472^8

125*.5

347 '.3

1,592
1,587
1,685

120.9
120.5
120.7

192!l

October
November
December

403!%

41K07

416.91
417.04
423.21

148.7
148.3
149.8

472.7

125.7

347 !o

1,535
1,659
1,391

115.4
116.2
107.3

191.'9

January
February
March

413'.34

417.'63

432.80
432.06
438.93

151.2
152.4
153.3

483.' 6

IZl'.B

sei.'s

1,391
1,511
1,528

100.8
115.2
119.6

189 .'l

April
May
June

427 '.54

43K35

445.06
454.15
456.32

154.6
156.9
158.1

497!8

122.5

37b\3

1,576
1,392
1,463

114.1
115.5
118.4

194.'2

July
August
September

435!61

436! 04

458.73
463.23
463.95

159.3
160.2
160.8

501.*6

123^6

378 '. 6

1,478
1,459
1,463

113.6
116.9
114.2

195il

October
November
December

442 !li

433*.51

463.94
462.23
465.80

160.2
161.2
162.6

492.7

121A

37K3

1,532
1,567
1,577

121.7
120.3
121.1

198 '.1

459^47

451*. 35

475.20
475.31
485.30

163.8
165.0
166. 3

soi'.o

12l".i

379".9

1,678
1,465
1,409

118.5
111.9

r487.01
r487.06
r490.84

167.8
169.1
r!69.6

511.4

118.1

393.2

1,343
1,308
1,406

106.4
107.4
104.3

189.' 3

r484 . 04
fj)p508.20

168.9
[H>169.9
p!69.8

E>p518*.6

piisis

(H>p398'.2

rl,420
rl,332
pi, 263

102.2
105.9
105.2

p!87!6

.

1988

1989

January
February
March
April
May
June

[H>470'.86

July
August
September

a48l!24

October .
November
December

a483.*04

E> 463! 10

a47l!ii

(NA)

195*.6

98.1

a470.*25

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
'These series reached high values before 1987: series 87 (151.4) in 2d Q 1985, series 28 (2,260) and series 29 (158.5) in February 1984,
and series 89 (200.3) in 4th Q 1986.

OCTOBER 1989




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

|
U INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

Timing Class

l,l,l

30, Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollarsl

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1,1, 1

1,1,1

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars 1
Smoothed 2

Actual
(Ann. rate,
btl. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
btl. dol.)

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,U

38. Change in
mfrs.1 inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars

(Bil. doi.)

70. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
mfg. and

trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars1

L, Lg, Lg

78. Mfrs.(
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order

(Ratio)

(Bil. dol.)

1987

16.15

-2.36

1,92

64.1
21.3
35.1

-1.06
-0.59

32.38

0.48
9.83

liia

14.81
47.64
35.65

16.59
23.99
32,16

e!a

31.80
-3.77
44.10

35.53
29.80
22.64

56.*6

75.32
41.99
51.71

31.30
46.18
55.07

3,24

34^3

37.39

1.82

659.20
660.97
663.90

644.61
644.61
645.70

103.41
103.02
103,23

1.54
1.49
1.50

236.33
235.74
237.56

26.7
69.3
34.0

2.82
1.09
2.71

666.12
671.89
674.73

645.85
648.83
649.82

102.94
103.23
102,57

1.50
1.50
1.50

240.38
241.47
244.17

32.7
44.9

2.76
1.75
2.20

677.45
677.78
681.52

651.04
649.93
652.18

103.84
104.66
104.04

1.50
1.49
1.48

246.94
248.68
250.88

90.8
64.5
75.5

2.18
1.02
1.04

689.09
694.47
700.76

657.41
660.63
664.72

105.04
105.86
106.82

1.50
1.51
1.51

253.06
254.08
258.11

44.33
31.55
22.94

39.3
46.2
36.6

3.81
0.25
1.32

704.03
707.89
710.94

666.50
669.06
670.20

107,42
108.16
108.08

1.52
1.51
1.50

258.92
259.18
260.49

22.64
22.33

15.38
13.19
13.68

43.8
47.0
72.1

2.52
2.83
2.21

714,59
718.51
724.52

671.42
673.13
675.32

108.09
108.43
109.02

1.50
1.50
1,49

263.01
265.83
268.04

-8.81
39.50
35.16

14.34
14.86
19.81

1.43

ie»r91,5
r79.7

729,79
r?37.41
744.05

674.74
678.75
681.92

109.82
110.78
111.62

1.50
1.50
1.51

269.47
273.45
275.93

IB.3

-17.99
23,03
59,40

20.42
16.14
17.44

-6.1
38.5
83.5

-0.42
-0.84

743.54
746.76
753.72

681.28
683.35
687.97

112.07
112.69
113,93

1.49
1.50
1.50

277.82
277.41
276.56

January
February
March

24.*S

18.66
-6.58
-20.08

27.59
28.76
10.58

73.0
39.0
29.4

1.74
0,31
1.61

759.80
763.05
765.50

691.10
690.75
690,50

115.38
115.66
115.36

1.51
1,52
1.53

278,30
278.61
280.22

April
May
June

r4.37
rl9.S6

-4.83
r-5.18
T3.26

70.0
81.0
32.5

0.14

19ii

-0.77
-0.12

771.34
778,09
780.80

691.15
693.00
694.54

115.92
117.05
117.85

1.51
1.51
1.52

280.36
279.59
279.48

r9.88
p4.54

rlO.57
pll.30

r3.37
p-0.67

r787.58
K>p789.86

r697.12
|H)p699.03

rl!9.02
i)pll9.20

1.54

p27.4

[H>282.85
p282.18

January
February . .
March . . . .
April
May
June

IB.l

. . .

July
August
September
October
November . . . . . . .
December
.....

3.9

1988

January
February
March

.....

4,68

April
May
June

zi'.s

July ,
August .
September

....
....

October
November . . . . . . .
December

37^5

4.88

63.3

[H)3.98
2.48
1.90

1989

5,66

July
August
September
October
November
December .

p36!2

(NA)

(NA)

r81.4
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

pi. 50
(NA)

(NA)

..

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 26, and 27.
l
Thesc series reached high values before 1907: series 30 (83.4) in 1st Q 1984, series 36 actual (92.33) in February 1984, series 36
smoothed (79.84) in May 1984, and series 77 (1.58) in March 1986. 2This series is a weighted 4-terra moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1)
placed on the terminal month o£ the span.




OCTOBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

£g| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Minor Economic
Process

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

L.L.L

98. Change in
producer prices
for sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1

Year
and
month

(Percent)

U.L.L

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials2©

(1967 = 100)

L,L,L

L, L , L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices1
Smoothed 3

Actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

(1941-43-10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L.L.L

U,L

Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

18. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,C,L

L.C.L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj *
79. Current
dollars

80. Constant
(1982) dollars1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

U,L

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)

1987

January
February
March

0.44
0.53
0.79

252.8
247.2
246.3

-0.25

April
May
June

0.43
2.25
1.69

July
August
September
October
November
December

264.51
280.93
292.47

isi.'i

117.'8

164.' 9

isi.'a

4.'<5

0.76

1.27
1.07
0.92

253,8
272.6
276.4

2.09
2.30
1.11

0.98
1.20
1.31

289.32
289.12
301.38

139*.4

124 '.7

169!s

155.*5

4^8

1.66
1.47
3.31

284.2
288.3
292.4

1,43
1.10
0.72

1.39
1.40
1.32

310.09
329.36
318.66

14s!3

133!6

180 '. 3

166 !i

5!6

2.65
1.06
0.00

294.6
292.0

0.30

-1.28

13U9

18CK9

164^9

4!?

0.49

280.16
245.01
240.96

148!9

293.1

1.13
0.70
0.41

0.90
0.89
1.11

292.5
288.9
292.3

0.78
0.36
1.19

0.30
0.24
0.33

250.48
258.13
265.74

159.9

141.*8

189 .'i

171.'?

5.*2

April
May
June

-0.22
-0.22
0.00

297.3

301.6

0.80
0.41
1.25

0.45
0.51
0.65

262.61
256.12
270.68

166.'9

147.' 3

187,' 6

i67!e

s.'i

July
August
September

1.47
-0.22
-0.22

309.0
309.9
306.4

0.05
0.15

0.65
0.58
0.44

269.05
263.73
267.97

173!2

E>15i!8

189!7

168^6

b\4

-0.36
0.36
0.22

305.0
309.7

0.27
0.40
0.54

277,40
271.02
276.51

E)17b\6

isiii

H>196!9

172^3

5^3

317.2

1.96
0.94

1.52
0.36
0.71

324.7
329.3
334.6

1.41
1.40
0.69

0.75
0.95
1.04

285.41
294.01
292.71

173.'6

147.' 5

i/i.'g

145.'8

5*.2

0.21

D335.0
330.5

-0.80
-0.89
-0.66

0.84
0.49
0.13

302.25
313.93
323,73

i6i!i

133!2

172 '.9

145!6

4^7

-0.98
-0.45

-0.23
-0.47
-0.48

331.93
346.61
E>347.33

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

...

1.12

1988

-January
February
March

. ..

-. .

October
November
December

309.5

-0,14
-0.25

-

1989

January
February
March

..

April
May
June
July
August
September

rO.78
r-0.84

329.1
326.7
325.0
327.0

'•-0.78
. ..

-0.21
0.29

5

October
November
December

327.1

0.45

6

(NA)

349.55

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
lr
These series reached high values before 1987: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983, series 99 actual (3.21) in Aug. 1983 and smoothed (2.09) in
Nov. 1983, series 22 ( . ) in 1st Q 1984, and series 80 (190.3) in 3d Q 1985. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not
69
be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average
filter developed by Statistics Canada. "See footnote 1 on p. 70. 5Average for Oct. 2-25. 6Average for Oct. 4, 11, 18, and 25.
OCTOBER 1989




69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . . . . . . .

^ PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

Minor Economic
Process . . . . . . . .
Timing Class . . . . . .

U, L. L

L,L,l

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp, domestic
income l 2

15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

(Cents)

L, L, L

26, Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector 2
(1977-100)

L, U

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

1,1,1.

Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations

35. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977-100)

(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data

(1977-100)

Actual data
as a percent
of trend
(Percent)

64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income a

(Percent)

1987

January . . . . . . . . .
February
.
March . . . . . . . . . .

§.t

4.*5

98*. 1

383.2

3?s!6

17l'.2

0.73i

138.6
138.0
138.3

101.0
100.6
100.8

April . . . . . . . . . . .
May
June . . , .

s!6

98*.8

394.1

389 !i

171.3

0.727

137.2
136.9
136.6

100.0

6.2

July . . . . . . .
August . . . . . . . .
September

e!§

s.'s

99^3

404^7

400 ! 8

171.6

0.726

135,6
136.6
138.0

98.8
99.6

October . . . . . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December

e!i

4.4

98*. 6

4Q?!6

403 !i

173*.5

0.734

99.8
99.6

73!7

?i!5

73^3

100.6

137.1
137.3
136.8

100.1

99.9

73'.i

99.7

1988

eii

E>6 § .2

98*.9

419.0

412!g

173i5

0.732

137.2
137.7
139.2

100.0
100.4
101.5

73.2

6.3

B.9

98.' 3

426^2

419^9

176.9

0.740

138.1
137.7
138.5

100.7
100.4
100.9

n.z

July
August . . .
September

eii

s.g

98.' 6

431.1

E>424!9

178.1

0.746

137.7
137.6
138.4

100.4
100,3
100.9

73.3

October
November . . . . . . .
December

e'.a

s!g

99'.i

E>43i'.6

42K8

180.2

0.756

139.9
138.9
138.2

102.0
101.2
100.7

73.1

January
February
March

s!i

5.*9

9B.2

426^9

416.5

181.9

0.768

138.4
139.2

DHI.I

100.9
101.5
E>102.8

73! 2

April . . . . . . . . . . .
May
June

5.2

p4.8

98.1

412.2

401.9

139.2
139.2
r!39.3

101.5
101.5
rlOl.5

73A

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

r!39.8
r!40.2
P140.5

rl01.9
rlQ2.2

January . . . .
February . .
March
April
May
June

.
,

1989

July . . .
August
September

(NA)

H>184.3

(NA)

H>0.778

(NA)

pioa.4

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 29 and 30.
*lVAj inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
These series reached high values before 1987: series 81 (8.6) in 3d Q 1985, series 26 (99.8) in 3d Q 1985, and series 64 (74.0) in
4th Q 1986.

70



OCTOBER 1989

(NA)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^H MONEY AND CREDIT

Minor Economic
Process

Money

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L,U

85. Change
in money
supply Ml1

L,C,U

102. Change
in money
l
supply M2

(Percent)

(Percent)

Velocity of Money

U,L

104. Change
in total liquid
assetsl

(Percent)

L,U

105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars

(Bit. dot.)

U, L

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

c,c,c

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1

(Ratio)

Credit Flows

C, Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2

(Ratio)

L, U

U,l

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

112. Net change
in business loans

(NA)

97.22
-19.66
-16.76

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1987

0.68
0.16
0.38

0.65
0.01
0.12

0.69
0.27
0.00

632.7
631.0
630.7

2,449.7
2,439.5
2,432.0

5.992

1.287
1.301
1.306

1.40
0.20
-0.71

0.40
0.04
0.09

0.25
0.66
0.39

H>636.8
635,9
629.8

2,431.2
2,423.8
2,419.7

1.307
1.312
1.315

-5.75

6.014

July
August
September

0.20
0.38
0.31

0.29
0.47
0.55

0.13
0.59
0.72

629.5
629.2
629.5

2,420.5
2,421.6
2,428.7

6.126

1.320
1.324
1.323

-22.62
-29.33
28.15

October
November
December

1 26
-0 36
-0.30

0.60
0.07
0.18

rO 74
rO 21
rO.06

635.3
630.9
628.0

2,435.2
2,428,6
2,429.0

6.182

1.342
1.338
1.356

29.58
-8.88
34.34

0.81
0.22
0.49

0.71
0.69
0.63

rO.84

630.4
630.8
631.8

2,436.0
2,448.8
2,456.0

6.230

1.338
1.337
1.340

63.36
73.18
19.81

April
May
June

0.97
-0.01
0.70

0.71
0.32
0.44

rO.88

634.7
632.0
634.4

2,461.2
2,458.9
1)2,461.7

6.260

1.340
1.341
1.344

94.69
15.76
28.42

July
August
September

0.77
-0.01
0.17

.0,36
0.19
0.17

0.98

0.41
0.18

636.7
634.5
633.0

2,460,5
2,457.2
2,451.5

6.293

1.349
1.351
1.357

33,38
14.70
-21.98

October
November
December

0 22
0.15
0 47

0.24
0.56
0 33

0.46
0.57
0 79

631.4
630.8
631.7

2,445.6
2,453.4
2,453.6

6,372

1.374
1.363
1.370

36.38
15.43
80.89

January
February
March

-0.51
0.14
-0.14

-0.12
0.12
0.29

rO.09
rO.28
rO.75

625.0
623.4
619.6

2,437.0
2,430.2
2,425.8

6.499

1.394
1.407
1.417

89.27
91.34
40.09

April
May
June

-0.41
-1.25
-0.39

rO.08

rO.54
r-0.08
rO.27

612.8
601,8
598.5

r2,410.6
r2,390.8
2,399.4

6.707

1.424
1.431
E>1.431

52.54
E)rl23.64
r26.44

July
August
September

rO.91
rO 05

rO.74
pO.43

r602.6
602.9
p604.9

2,416.7
r2,431.3
p2,442.8

p6.7?i

rl.425
rl.421
pi. 416

r!2.97
r93.07
p-18.04

October
November
December

2

January
February
March
April
May
June

2.48

10.79

1988

January
February
March

0.69

rO.67

0.64
0.38

1989

pO.49

-0.28
rO.51
0.96
rO.60
pO.63

(NA)

1.17

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
L
The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 85 (2.66) in December 1986, series 102 (2.67) in January 1983,
series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 107 (7.034) in 4th quarter 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984.
2
Average for weeks ended October 2, 9, and 16.

OCTOBER 1989




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . . . . . . .

EQj MONEY AND CREDIT- - Continued

Minor Economic
Process
.. ,
Timing Class . . . . . .

U, I

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
l
credit

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)

L.L.L

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows— Continued
1,1,1

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfmancial
borrowers in
credit markets1
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L,L,L

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©

(Mil. doi.)

L,U

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over1
(Percent)

Interest Rates

L.U.U

L, Lg, U

93. Free
reserves1©

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate1©

(Percent)

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills1©

(Percent)

1987

-19.58
19.61
27.43

3.6
1.5
3.8

409,432

48.20
P0.78
66.72

5.5
5.4
8.1

62.99
36 . 48
61.64

4 8
2 8
10 1

25.76
14 66
63.38

January
February
March

6 9
5 0

April
May
June
July . ,
August . .
September

...

October
November
December

3,220.7
3,586.0
3,249.5

2.43
2.40
2.28

633,288

3 222 5
2 488 5
3 332 4

2 36
2 43
2 35

566 400

2 036 1
1 968 2
2 967 2

2 34
2 37
2 35

603 688

3 004 2
1 663 5
3,985.0

2 66
2 54
2.47

3,894.1
4,625.5
3,291.7

2.44
2.32
2.19

3,065.6
2 316 5
2 453 4

2.31

717 684

594,880

4,582.8
2,291.2
r3 555 5

2.45
2.38

16.2

488
656
388

580
556
5?7

6.43
6.10

5.45

6 13

5 56

993
1 035
776

6 37
6 85
6 71

5 76
5 75
5 69

672
647
940

6 58
6 73
7 ?2

5 78
6 00
6 32

186
298
252

943
625
111

7 ?9
6 69

6 40

6.77

5.80

213
737

1,082
396
1,752

6 83

5 90

6.58
6.58

5.69
5.69

-166

44
414
89
385
-147

5.59

R 81

1988

January
February
March

,
,

86.20
65.77
57.44

April
May . .
June . . . .

40.96
46.15
64.86

July
August
September

16.45
65.51
22 68

October
November
December

30.91
63.37
61 13

7.2
10.6

520,240

6.7
11.3

7 4
8 3
8.3
11.1

r4 3

r7.4
r6.7

628,072

rlO 5

-823

-2,134
-1 538
-2 195

2,993
2 678
3 083

6.87

5.92

7 09
7 51

6 27
6 50

3,440
3,241
o o^q

7.75
8.01

6.73
7.02

2 42

-2,433
-2,288
-1 867

pi, 825. 5
p2,047.5
p2 026 8

2.62
2.48

-1,237
-1,742

2 49

-676

2,299
2,861
1 716

8.30
8.35
Bjf.

8 HP

p2, 100.0
p2, 316.1
p2 948 0

2.32
2.42

1,662
1,487
1 813

9.12
9.36

8.29
8.48

2 39

-517
-333
-856

9 85

8 83

p6 145 6
pi 873 2
p2 186 0

2 35
2 34
2 30

-1 513

2 289
1 720
1 490

9 84
9 81
9 53

8 70
8 40
8 22

p4,073.4
p2 960 0
pi 751 2

(NA)

9.24

q n?

7,92
7 Q1
7 79

2R an

37 KQ

2 32
2 34

o iq

7 ?1

7.34
7.68

1989

January
February
March

64.52
45 18

April
May . . .
June

32.99
50.65
32.60

July
August . .
September

r-6.06
p41 71

(NA)

October , .
November
December

(NA)

(NA)
11.8

585,932

7 ?
8.1
rll 1

546 276

r4,4
rl.8

n7 1
(NA)

(NA)

-689
-585

272
r210
p!95

694
675
p693

8

QQ

See note on page 60,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.
lf
rhe following scries reached their high values before 1987: scries 113 (132.08) in September 1985; .series 111 (23.2) in June 1984, scries 110 (897,756) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 £-7,328), series
94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Avcrage for weeks ended October 4, 11, IB, and 25. ^Average for
weeks ended October S, 12, 19, and 26.

72



OCTOBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^g MONEY AND CREDIT- Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Outstanding Debt

Interest Rates— Continued

Timing Class

U, Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds1©

Year
and
month

C,Lg,Lg

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1©

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond1average ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA 1
mortgages ©

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks x@

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Mil. dot.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)

1987

January
February
March

8.59
8.58
8.68

7.60
7.69
7.62

6.61
6.61
6.66

8.79
8.81
8.94

?!46

7.50
7.50
7.50

570,415
572,049
574,335

366,883
365,245
363,848

365,058
361,629
359,534

15.67
15.54
15.52

April
May
June . .

9.36
9.95
9.64

8.31
8.79
8.63

7.55
8.00
7.79

10.02
10.61
10.33

8.24

7.75
8.14
8.25

578,352
580,084
585,644

363,369
363,576
364,475

356,594
354,363
353,859

15,55
15.53
15.64

9.70
10.09
10.63

8.70
8.97
9.58

7.72
7.82
8.26

10.38
10.55
11.22

8!20

8.25
8.25
8.70

590,893
593,933
599,070

362,590
360,146
362,492

350,329
346,961
349,558

15.67
15.64
15.69

10.80
10.09
10.22

9.61
8.99
9.12

8.70
7.95
7.96

10.90
10.76
10.63

8^47

9.07
8.78
8.75

601,217
602,439
607,721

364,957
364,217
367,079

350,583
349,536
352,283

15.44
15.50
15.41

9.81
9.43
9.68

8.82
8.41
8.61

7.69
7.49
7.74

10.17
9.86
10.28

s!37

8.75
8.51
8.50

614,904
620,385
625,172

372,359
378,457
380,108

355,984
361,123
362,353

15.68
15.73
15.71

April
May
June

9.92
10.25
10.08

8.91
9.24
9.04

7.81
7.91
7.78

10.46
10.84
10.65

8*.49

8.50
8.84
9.00

628,585
632,431
637,836

387,999
389,312
391,680

366,729
365,551
365,373

15,69
15.72
15.75

July
August
September

10.12
10.27
10.03

9.20
9.33
9.06

7.76
7.79
7.66

10.66
10.74
10.58

9*.75

9.29
9.84
10.00

639,207
644,666
646,556

394,462
395,687
393,855

365,581
366,377
364,343

15.67
15.75
15.70

October
November
December

9.86
9.98
10.05

8.89
9.07
9.13

7.47
7.46
7.61

10.23
10.63
10.81

io!ii

10.00
10.05
10.50

649,132
654,413
659,507

396,887
398,173
404,914

366,809
367,657
371,481

15.53
15.70
15.68

January
February
March

9.92
.10.11
10.33

9.07
9.16
9.33

7.35
7.44
7.59

10.69
10.88
11.16

10*.97

10.50
10.93
11.50

682,020
687,397
691,162

412,353
419,965
423,306

373,170
379,030
379,647

[H>15.96
15.91
15.85

April
May .
June

10.11
9.82
9.24

9.18
8.95
8.40

7.49
7.25
7.02

10.88
10.55
10.08

11.89

11.50
11.50
11.07

693,911
698,132
700,849

427,684
r437,987
r440,190

380,841
r386,914
r390,239

15.82
15.88
15.87

9,20
9.08
9.29

8.19
8.26
8.31

6.96
7.06
7.26

9.61
9.95
9.94

10 '.78

r391,545
r441,271
r700,344
10,98
10.50 E>p703,820 [H)r449,027 [H> MOO, 917
p398,508
p447,524
(NA)
10.50

r!5.76
p!5.79
(NA)

...

July . . .
August .
September

....

October
November
December
1988

January
February
March

1989

July
August
September
2

October .
November
December

9.02

2

8.16

3

7.22

HO. 50

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
'The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984;
series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended
October 6, 13, 20, and 27. 3Average for weeks ended October 5, 12, and 19. ''Average for October 1 through 30.

OCTOBER 1989



73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES

Year
and
month

950. Eleven leading
indicator components
(series 1,5, 8, 19,20,29,
32, 83, 92, 99, 106)

1-month
span
1987

January
February . . . . . . . .
March
April
May
June

t2)
40.9
54.5

r63,6
69.1
54.5
81.8

July
August
September . . . . . . .
October
November
December

72.7

r68.2
r45.5
45.5
22.7
31.8

6-month
span

C2)
r72.7

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

952. Seven lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77,91,95,
101, 109, 120)

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

C2)

C2)

Revised 2

25.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

78.6
35.7
42.9

57.1
57.1
57.1

57.5
80.0
17.5

57.1
50.0
35.7

42.9
64.3
71.4

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 349
industries

Revised 2

1-month
span

9-month
span

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas '

1-month
span

9»month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

67.5
72.5
85.0

88.2
35.3
52.0

69.6
82.4
78.4

55.6
59.3
61.0

67.3
65,8
64.8

10.0
92.5
45,0

77.5
42.5
77.5

73.5
78.4
15.7

80.4
94.1
90.2

61.9
58.6
59.7

66.8
67.6
69.5

1-month
span

63.6
81.8

100.0

81.8

r68.2

r50.0
r75.0

72.7

87.5

100.0
100.0
100.0

72.7
63.6

100.0
100.0
r62.5

100.0
100.0
100.0

42.9
35.7
71.4

57.1
64.3
71.4

57.5
72.5
25.0

57.5
67.5
87.5

64.7
84.3
37.3

92.2
59.8
62.7

65.3
60.6
63,0

73, §
73.?,

75.0
50.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

85.7
57.1
28.6

92.9

100.0

37.5
50.0
60.0

86.3
23.5

85.7

90.0
40.0
27.5

27.5
62.7
80.4

67.8
64.5
60.7

71.5
71.8
72.2

r63.6
36.4

r36.4
36.4

75.0

100.0

5.9

71,3

1988

January . , .
February . .
March , . . . . , , , ,

31.8
45.5

r62.5

63.6

r59.1

r86.4

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

85.7
71.4
42.9

78.6
85.7
85.7

37.5
32.5
62.5

42.5
65.0
32.5

80.4
29.4
60.8

45.1
41.2
33.3

60.7
63.5
63.0

69.9
70.2
71.5

April .
May
June

63.6

r36.4
rBl.8

77.3
86.4
72.7

r?5.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

42.9
42.9
57.1

42.9
57.1
57.1

77.5
30.0
57.5

20.0
42.5
57.5

94.1
29.4
31.4

23.5
86.3
96.1

62.8
61.3

67. <?

73.9
73.9
69,1

31.8
54.5
45.5

59.1
63.6
45.5

75.0

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

42.9
71.4
57.1

35.7
78.6
71.4

52.5
27.5
80.0

62.5
47.5
32.5

70.6
20.6
76.5

66.7
82,4
25.5

63.6
58.0
55.4

70.2
74.6
73.5

r40.9

77.3
50.0
36.4

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

64.3
85.7
50.0

85.7

52.5
45.0
22.5

45.0
35.0
60.0

72.5

100.0
100.0

70.6

40.2
37.3
68.6

63.9
68.2
64.6

73.9
74,5
75.8

54.5
36.4

r75.0

100.0
100.0

78.6
85.7
71.4

100.0

70.0
55.0
40.0

32.5
32.5

r30.0

29.4
41.2
45.1

43.1
30.4
17.6

68.3
60.5
61.0

75.1
69.5
68.2

21.4
57.1
42.9

71.4
42.9

85.0

r32.5

92.2

r45.1
p47.1

"40.0

70.0

56.9

58.2
55.6
59.7

r66.0
r63.5
p58.5

r3Q.O
r45.0
p57.5

64.7

July .
August
September . .
October
November
December

r40.9

40.9
68.2

87.5

75.0

75.0

100.0

5.9

1989

January
February
March

72.7
22,7
18.2

r22.7

50.0
75.0

April
May
Jung

72.7
18.2
40.9

18.2

100.0

r31.8
p50,0

25.0
75.0

July . .
August . . .
September

50.0
45.5

p36.4

r62.5
100.0
3
50.0

75.0
75.0
3

100.0
100.0

57.1
57.1

"30.0

85.7
78.6

5.0

P 52.5

7.8

r35.3
p76.5

rS5.6
r56.3
p47.4

October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: -1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6°
month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
''Figures are the percent of components declining.
2
See "Now Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 77 tind 95, for which data are not available.

74



OCTOBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^J DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

966. Industrial production, 24 industries

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials @

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks1®

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies 2 ©

80.9
73.5
82.4
82.4
73.5
73.5
76.5
73.5
73.5

47.1
55.9
41.2

73.5
85.3
76.5

57.4
55.9
55.9

73.5
70.6
79.4

41.2
67.6
50.0

79.4
79.4
82.4

52.9
64.7
64.7

61.8
58.8
82.4

55.9
35.3
44.1

54.4
66.2
52.9

p47

April
May
June

72.1
35.3
45.6

r55.9
p41.2

75.0
87.5
83.3

61.5
88.5
57.7

73.1
96,2
80.8

39.3
46.3
93.9

97.5
97.5
62.5

*76

70,8
62.5
50,0

91.7
91.7
95.8

73.1
76.9
61.5

88.5
88.5
76.9

81.3
95.0

10.0
12.5
10.0

*78

75.0
79.2
66.7

83.3
79.2
83.3

53.8
46.2
50.0

53.8
69.2
69.2

0,0
0.0

17.5

53.8

12.8

52.1
54.2
70.8

83.3
75.0
70.8

42.3
34.6
65.4

69.2
61.5
61.5

75.0
88.8
37.0

79.2
60.4
58.3

91.7
87.5
79.2

57.7
65.4
65.4

61.5
61.5
61.5

37.2

83.3
60.4
56.3

79.2
83.3
91.7

42.3
46.2
38.5

75.0
75.0
66.7

91.7
70.8
68.8

64.6
29.2
60.4

75.0
62.5

53

January
February
March

50.0
70.8
70.8

41

October
November
December

*74

65

July
August
September

87.8
92.7
92.5

44

April
May
June

98.8
95.2
83.3

65

January
February
March

88.5
96.2
80.8

59

52.9
44.1
55.9

84.6
42.3
30.8

82

67.6
44.1
58.8

91.7
89.6
75.0

pbi

54.4
48.5
61.8

31.2
64.6
60.4

41

April
May
June

9-month
span

51

91.2
73.5
89.7

1-month
span

"54

41.2
70.6
47.1

9-month
span

'58

January
February
March

1-month
span

*63

1 -quarter
span

6-month
span

'oi

9-month
span

1-month
span

61

1-month
span

4-Q moving
average

(4-quarter span)

1987

....
..

July
August
September . .
October
November
December

'

8.8

8.0

*77

1988

(NA)

5.1
7.7

*80

52.6

'?7

97.4

84.6
91.0
92.3

57.7
53.8
65.4

30.8
28.2
69.2

79.5
64.1
84.6

72

42.3
69.2
76.9

57.7
69.2
61.5

84.6
23.1
74.4

97.4
78.9
86.8

*72

46.2
53.8
53.8

100.0

94.7

92.3
39.5

100.0

r62.5

69.2
65.4
57.7

r66.7
r79.2
p83.3

53.8
38.5
38.5

53.8
61.5

89.5
78.9
81.6

97.4
97.4

3.8

1989

July
August
September

r35^3
64.7

p55.9

(NA)

79.2
50.0

r85.4
r45.8
r66.7
p35.4

38.5
50.0
46.2
3

October
November
December

3

46.2

(NA)

97.4

76.3
94.7
39.5

38.5

See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
^ased on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries through March 1988, on 39 industries
through February 1989, and on 38 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on the average for October 3, 10, 17, and 24,

OCTOBER 1989




75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
|

971. New orders, manufacturing1©

a. Actual
expenditures

b. Later
projections

c. Early
projections

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

21.4

52.4
64.3
38.1

47.6

71.4

81.0

47.6

40.5

54,8

59.5

69.0

90.5

85.7

81.0

85.7

71.4

81.0

61.9
52,4

88.1

95.2

71.4

85.7

76.2

66.7

(1-Qspan)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

57.1

31.0

Actual

71,4

59.5

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade 1 ®

Actual

970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries

Year
and
quarter

Actual

Antic pated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade 1 ©
Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4=Q span)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

76
76
74
75

82
83
84
78

70
71
70
70

78
81
81
78

72
73
74
74

81
84
83
80

78
83
82
82

80
83
85
86

74
74
75
76

78
81
83
82

78
80
82
83

82
83
85
86

82
82
82
83

84
84
86
84

76
76
76
78

82
82
82
84

80
80
82
84

85
84
86
85

80
75

82
86
81
78

72
73

80
84
80
77

80
76

84
87
84
80

1987

First quarter . . . . ,
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .

71,4

66.7

54.8

64.3

42.9

52.4

59.6
73.8

66.7

71.4

61.9

(NA)

57.1

52.4
66.7

1989

First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

....
....
....
....

(NA)

52.4

(NA)

(NA)

^^1 DIFFUSION INDEXES— Continued

Vnif
rear

and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 1 ©

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 @

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

Anticipated

Actual

978. Selling prices, retail
trade1©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1©

976. Selling prices, manufacturing l@

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

59
60
58
63

62
65
62
59

59
59
58
62

64
64
62
62

60
62
66
62

62
62
64
64

60
60
61
62

64
64
68
70

60
66
67
66

63
70
72
70

63
68
66
69

67
67
72
72

64
64
68
70

67
70
69
68

62
64
62
63

74
74
74
75

70
69
74
72

74
73
74
72

72
72
71
63

70
70
73
70

68
71
70
72

66
65

63
64
60
60

72
72

70
74
68
67

74
71

72
72
69
66

73
71

70
72
73
69

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

58
59
60
58

59
60
59
58

62
61
62
60

58
58
60
57

60
61
64
64

60
59
62
62

64
65
66
68

63
62
62
63

63
62
62
61

62
60

62
62
61
58

(4-Q span)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by(§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun ft
Bradstroot diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76



OCTOBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Qj SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components

1989

March

February

May

April

Julyr

June

August r

SeptemberP

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGl
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries

o

41.0

(55)

Percent rising of 20 components

41.1

+

(40)

41.3

41.0

o

(5)

(85)

41.0

o

40.9

(30)

(70)

41.0

+

(45)

41.0
(58)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products .
Furniture and fixtures

39.6
39.7

+
+

40.0
39.8

+
+

40.5
39.9

39.7
39.4

+
o

39.4

+

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

42.2
43.4

o
+

42.2
43.5

+

42.5
43.3

41.9
43.2

+
+

42.2
43.3

41.8
42.5

+
+

41,9
42.7

41.7
42.5

o

41.5
42.5

41.0
42.8

40.7
42.5

o
o

40.7
42.5

41.1
39.6

+

41.3
39.4

+

40.5
39.5

+
+

40.7
40.1

+

39 .3

39.6
39.5

+
+

40.2
39.6

+

42.3
43.0

+

42.5
42.9

o

41.5
42.4

Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical

o
+

41.9
42.6

Electric and electronic equipment . .
Transportation equipment

o
+

40.9
43.1

40.6
43.1

+

o

Instruments and related products . .
Miscellaneous manufacturing

o
+

41.5
39.5

o

41.1
39.5

+
+

41.5
39.8

+

40.3
37.8

+

40.4
36.3

+
+

40.7
38.1

41.1
36.9

+
+

41.7
37.6

41.4
37.1

o
o

41.4
37.1

41,2
37.0

43.3
37.9

+
o

43.4
37.9

43.3
37.7

o
+

43.3
37.8

43.2
37.6

42.3
43.2

+
+

42.6
44.3

42.1
43.9

+
+

42.5
44.6

41.6
38.0

o
+

41.6
38.3

41.5
37.4

o
+

41.5
37.9

+

40.6
42.6
41.4
39.3

o

40.0
39.6
42.3
42.5

41.4
42.2

o
o

41.4
42.2

40.9
42.5

+
+

41.1
42.7

41.0
39.5

o

40.8
39.5

40.7
37,3

o
+

40.7
39.6

o

41.0
37.0

+

40,7
37.1

+
+

43.4
37.7

+

43.2
37.9

42.3
43.7

+
+

42.7
44.1

41.4
38.2

+
+

41.5
38.3

+

+

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers 2
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

40.8
37.1

+

+

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

+
o

43.2
38.0

+

o
'+

42.3
44.0

o

o
+

41.7
38.6

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products 2
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

. .

+

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIESl
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

- 124,107

Percent rising of 34 components
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

(35)

...

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

....

.

Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery

+ 125,377

...

+ 129,372

- 123,524

(72)

(44)

o

41.0
37.9

42.5
44.3
41.4
37.7

o
+

3

+ 125,137

(35)

- 122,031

(46)

+ 126,825

- 126,678

(65)

(35)

(56)

+

12,602
13,377

-

11,885
12,910

+
+

12,865
13,007

-

12,481
12,792

+

11,770
13,435

-

11,510
12,820

+

11,269
13,300

+
+

11,487
13,733

+

21,921
19,573

+
-

22,255
18,272

+
+

22,731
19,890

-

22,288
18,677

+
+

23,348
19,593

+

20,917
19,773

+
-

22,667
19,424

+

22,131
20,643

-

33,381
23,253

+
-

37,050
23,005

o
+

37,062
23,817

o

33,470
23,816

-

33,414
23,577

+
-

34,012
22,999

+
+

36,510
23,655

+

34,781
23,903

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

OCTOBER

1989




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Continued

1989

Diffusion index components
February

Julyr

Juner

May

April

March

August r

September^

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1977-100)

-

All industrial production
Percent ri\in# of 24 cntnf>ttncnt\

2

140.5

+

140.7
(60)

(29)

141.7

141.6

(79)

+

+

(50)

142.0

o

142.0

(85)

+

(35)

+

123.4

142.3

(67)

136.9
169.5

142,4

138.4
169.2

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
85.1

(46)

Durable manufactures,
Lumber and products . , .
Furniture and fixtures

-

,
,

Clay, j'Jass, and stone products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Prnruiry cue tills

.

132.8
164.8

+
+

133.4
165.8

+
+

135.1
168.0

+
+

135.5
170.2

+
+

137.2
170.8

-

125.4

+

125.5

+

124.7
90.1

-

123.9
87.2

0
+

123.9
87.3

+

89.0

+
+

124.1

88.4

+
-

125.9
187.0

+
+

126.1
187.1

o

125.5
187.1

181.1
131.6

+
+

182.5
133.2

-

182.4
132.4

164.9
118.7

-

164.8

91.1

89.2

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery

0
+

124.5
180,8

+

123.8
183.0

^

123.1
184.7

+
+

124.8
186.5

+
+

125.2
187.5

HtK'trical machinery
Transportation equipment

+
-

181.7
136.4

-

181.6
134.8

+
+

182.2
136.4

-

181.6
135.5

+

181.9
134.2

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

+
-

161.3
110.0

+
+

161.8
112.5

+
+

163.0
115.3

+
+

164.3
117.1

+
+

165.7
119.1

+
-

166.1
119.0

-

-

146,3
104,7

-

145.4
101.5

+
+

146.6
109.2

+

147.2
105.9

+

147.9
104.2

+

147.5
106,0

+

Textile null products
Apparel products

o

119.4
110.2

+
-

119.7
109.9

+
+

122.5
111.3

+
+

123.6
111.5

+
+

123.8
111.9

123.5
111,7

+

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

+

151.7
194.6

o
+

151.7
198.5

+

150.7
200.1

150.1
199.0

+

150.2

+

200.5

+
-

152.4
199.4

+
+

153.5
200.0

-

158.5

+
+

159.2

+
+

159.3
97.3

158.2
96.9

+
+

159,9
97.9

+
+

161.9

+

162.0

96.3

98,3

97.3

+

175.0

+

176.4

+
+

178.0
61.4

180.5
60.3

+
+

182.3
60.5

o
+

182.3

182,0

60.8

60.5

-

134.7

+

137.7

+

96.8
145.5

-

94.0
137.1

+
-

101.2
129.2

+
+

108.2
130.2

89.5

+
+

143.5

+

89.1
144.5

+
+

90.5
146.6

+
+

90.6
150.2

o

150.2

(NA)

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods ,
Tobacco products

........

Chemicals and products
Petf oleum products

.,. ,

Rubber and plastics products
leather and products
,

,.,

97.0

61.2

62.9

+

147.7

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

124.8

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

+

200.8

+

(NA)
98.1
(NA)
(NA)

Mimnp;
Metal mining
Coal . , , . . , , .

..,*..,.......

Oil and fas extraction .
..
Stone and eartli minerals .

....

.,.,,..,.,....

98.6

+

142.5

98.1

89.6

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

( t )

rising, (o)

(NA)

+
+
-

90.3

unchanged, and (

)

falling.

135.4

(NA)

+

149.1

(NA)
(NA)

90.5

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

1
Data
2

arc seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Wherc actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78



140.0

OCTOBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

f^ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

Diffusion index components

1989

April

March

February

June

May

967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .

+

Percent rising of 13 components

329.3

+

334.6

+

-

330,5

(54)

(58)

(65)

335.0

-

July

September

October 1

2

329.1

-

(38)

(38)

August

326.7

-

325.0

(38)

+

(50)

327.0

o

(46)

327.1
(38)

Dollars

Copper scrap

(pound) . .
(kilogram)..

-

0.910
2.006

+

1.032
2.275

+

1.058
2.332

-

0.969
2.136

-

0.940
2.072

-

0.901 +
1.986

0.952
2.099

+

1.012
2.231

+

1.045
2.304

Lead scrap

(pound) . .
(kilogram)..

-

0.239
0,527

-

0.217
0.478

+

0.218
0.481

o

0.218
0.481

+

0.228
0.503

+

0.231 +
0.509

0.242
0.534

+

0.260
0.573

-

0.258
0.569

Steel scrap

(U.S. t o n ) . .
(metric t o n ) . .

- 113.000
124.560

0 113.000
124.560

o 113.000
124.560

- 112.200
123.678

- 111.000
122.355

- 108.000
119.048

- 105.000
115.741

- 102.250
112.710

- 100.000
110.230

Tin

(pound) . .
(kilogram). .

+

4.528
9.982

+

5.022
11.072

+

5.750
12.676

+

5.822
12.835

-

5.685
12.533

-

5.290
11.662

-

4.786
10.551

-

4.535
9.998

-

4.430
9.766

Zinc

(pound) . .
(kilogram)..

+

0.901
1.986

+

0.954
2.103

-

0.879
1.938

-

0.854
1.883

-

0.809
1.784

-

0.804
1.772

+

0.829
1.828

-

0.822
1.812

-

0.804
1.772

(yard)
(meter)..

+

0.282
0.308

o

0.282
0.308

+

0.283
0.309

-

0.282
0.308

+

0.284
0.311

+

0.286
0.313

-

0.284
0.311

o

0.284
0.311

+

0.285
0.312

(pound) . ,
(kilogram) . .

-

0.554
1.221

+

0.578
1.274

+

0.614
1.354

+

0.635
1.400

+

0.638
1.407

+

0.670
1.477

+

0.698
1.539

-

0.686
1.512

+

0.691
1.523

(yard).,
(meter)..

+

0.610
0.667

+

0.630
0.689

+

0.650
0.711

+

0.708
0.774

+

0.768
0.840

+

0.815
0.891

-

0.784
0.857

-

0.782
0.855

-

0.780
0.853

Wool tops

.(pound) . .
(kilogram)..

+

7.075
15.598

6.650
14.661

-

6.250
13.779

-

5.570
12.280

-

5.400
11.905

-

5.200
11.464

+

5.220
11.508

+

5.250
11.574

Hides

(pound)
(kilogram)..

+

0.976
2.152

+

1.048
2.310

-

0.975
2.149

-

0.954
2.103

-

0.948
2.090

+

1.000
2.205

+

1.020
2.249

+

1.052
2.319

-

1.050
2.315

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

o

65.000
143.299

o

65.000
143.299

o

65.000
143.299

o

65.000
143.299

-

64.500
142.197

-

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

Rubber

(pound) . .
(kilogram)..

+

0.592
1.305

-

0.566
1.248

-

0.553
1.219

-

0.520
1.146

-

0.494
1.089

-

0.492
1.085

-

0.473
1.043

-

0.462
1.019

o

0.462
1.019

Tallow

(pound) . .
(kilogram)..

+

0.147
0.324

-

0.145
0.320

-

0.143
0.315

+

0.144
0.317

+

0.150
0.331

-

0.142
0.313

-

0.131
0.289

+

0.138
0.304

+

0.144
0,317

falling.

The "r" indicates revised: "p",

Burlap
Cotton

,

Print cloth

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:

(

rising, (o) -= unchanged, and ( • - ) -

5.225
11,519

preliminary; and "NA", not available.
l

The index is the average for October 2 through 25; component prices are averages f'or October 3, 10, 17, and 24.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2

OCTOBER 1989



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter

b. Difference

. Total

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars

(Ann, rate,
dollars)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

1986

4,181.3
4,194.7
4,253.3
4,297.3

73,4
13.4
58.6
44.0

7.3
1.3
5.7
4.2

3,721.1
3,704.6
3,712.4
3,733.6

-16.5
7.8
21.2

6.6
-1.8
0.8
2.3

15,455
15,351
15,343
15,391

3,679.2
3,697.6
3,718.3
3,754.4

First quarter , .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

4,388,8
4,475.9
4,566.6
4,665.8

91.5
87.1
90.7
99.2

8.8
8.2
8.4
9.0

3,783.0
3,823.5
3,872.8
3,935.6

49.4
40.5
49.3
62.8

5.4
4,4
5.3
6.6

15,562
15,693
15,854
16,068

3,764.9
3,810.1
3,866.0
3,879.0

First quarter . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

4,739,8
4,838.5
4,926.9
5,017.3

74.0
98.7
88.4
90.4

6.5
8.6
7.5
7.5

3,974.8
4,010.7
4,042.7
4,069.4

39.2
35.9
32.0
26.7

4,0
3.7
3.2
2.7

16,192
16,303
16,388
16,452

3,940.5
3,989.2
4,005.2
4,051.0

5,113.1
5,201,7
p5,273.2

95,8
88.6
p71.5

7.9
7.1

4,106.8
4,132.5
p4,158.1

37.4

3.7

25.7
p25.6

2,5
P 2.5

16,567
16,633
p!6,690

4,082.3
4,113.5
p4,127.9

First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

58,7

1987

1989
First quarter . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

p5.6

GNP AND PERSONAL JNCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

231. Total in 1982
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
fail, dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil, dol.)

1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

2,959.2
3,006.5
3,024.3
3,063.4

2,609.2
2,648.6
2,637.3
2,646.2

10,837
10,975
10,900
10,909

2,734.3
2,761.0
2,826.0
2,868.5

2,410.9
2,432.4
2,464.4
2,477.8

381.8
393.6
426.4
422.0

363.7
374.5
401.9
397,5

3,142.8
3,138.1
3,223,5
3,319.4

2,672,3
2,632.5
2,675,6
2,726,2

10,993
10,805
10,953
11,130

2,914.7
2,989.4
3,055.9
3,083.3

2,478.3
2,507.7
2,536.5
2,532.3

401.2
419.2
439.3
424.5

376.1
389.3
403.8
389.4

3,376.4
3,435.9
3,511.7
3,587,4

2,757.2
2,773.3
2,806.4
2,835.9

11,232
11,273
11,377
11,466

3,148.1
3,204.9
3,263.4
3,324.0

2,570.8
2,586.8
2,608.1
2,627,7

446.4
454.6
452.5
467.4

408.4
414.8
410.7
420.5

3,689,5
3,747.7
p3,809.8

2,881,
2,887.
p2,921.5

11,625
11,622
pll,726

3,381.4
3,444.1
p3,509.5

2,641,0
2,653.7
p2,691.2

466.4
471.0
p490.4

419.3
424.9
p440.0

1987
First quarter . . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter . ,
Fourth quarter ,

1988
First quarter . . .
Second quarter .
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter .

1989
First quarter . . .
Second quarter .
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter ,

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.

80



OCTOBER

1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

VQ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued

Tear
and
quarter
Voar

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

238, Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

^Q GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

241. Total in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986

939.0
935.4

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

941.4
952.1

870.1
879.8
879.1
883.5

1,413.4
1,432.0
1,458.2
1,494.4

1,177.1
1,178.0
1,183.4
1,196.8

683.8
657.2
647.7
648.8

676.1
642.3
625.1
615.2

643.1
651.8
654.2
660.9

634.2
635.2
631.0
636.0

976.4
994.3
1,006,0
1,015.4

887.7
889.0
891.8
892.9

1,537.1
1,575.8
1,610.6
1,643.3

1,214.5
1,229,5
1,240.9
1,250.0

673.1
684.1
692.8
749.7

646.3
656.7
671.7
721.1

647.7
665.3
683.2
686.3

628.2
643.4
664.9
664,6

1,022.2
1,042.4
1,066.2
1,078.4

896.6
899.2
910.3
912.0

1,679.5
1,707.9
1,744.7
1,778.2

1,265.9
1,272.8
1,287.0
1,295.2

728.8
748.4
771.1
752.8

707.0
713.5
733.6
709.1

698.7
719.1
726.5
734.1

672.7
692.0
696.1
690,8

1,098.3
1,121.5

915.0
909.7
p918.6

1,816.7
1,851.7
pi, 890.1

1,306.7
1,319.0
pi, 332. 5

769.6
775.0
p791.0

721.1
719,8
p735.2

742.0
747.6
p755.8

696.6
700.7
p705.0

1987

First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

first quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

pi, 128. 9

B

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

rear
and
quarter
Voar

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

|
Q GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)

262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

40.7

41.9

5.4

7.1

-6.4
-12.2

-5.9
-20.8

25.4
18.8

18.1
13.3

850.3
869.3
880.3
888.9

744.1
761.2
765.2
776.0

358.5
368.7
369.9
368.8

324.4
335.4
334.2
342.4

491.8
500.6
510.4
520.1

419.6
425.7
430.9
433.6

906.9
916.8
933.2
947.5

776.6
774.9
783.5
792.1

375.6
378.2
384.5
388.1

338.1
334.7
340.7
344.9

531.4
538.6
548.7
559.4

438.5
440.1
442.8
447.2

945.7
960.1
958.6
1,011.4

775.1
783.0
775.9
806.4

374.1
377.1
367.5
406.4

323.8
327.9
319.8
343.9

571.6
583.0
591.0
604.9

451.3
455.1
456.1
462.5

1,016.0
1,033.2
pi, 040. 5

799.7
810.3
P805.7

399.0
406.0
p403.1

335.5
343.6
p335.9

617.0
627.2
p637.4

464.2
466.7
p469.9

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

9.5

6.8

63.3

56.6

30.0
29.3
44.6
18.7

34.3
21.5
37.5

1988

First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

18.3

1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

27.7
27.4
p35.1

24.5
19.1

p30.2

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

KCII

OCTOBER

1989




81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
quarter

255. Constant
(1982) dollars

250. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

280. Compel
sation of
employees

257. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

253. Current
dollars

256. Constant
(1982) dollars

252. Current
dollars

220. National in
come in current
dollars

Imports oi goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

1986

-87.1
-92.7
-100.8
-108.9

-110.0
-131.2
-142.3
-135.4

395,5
390.7
397.3
402,4

392.9
389.6
399.6
406.5

482.7
483,4
498.0
511.3

502.9
520.7
541.9
541.9

3,363.4
3,394,5
3,419.3
3,473.1

2,463.8
2,487.2
2,523.3
2,571.2

-106.0
-114,4
-115,3
-114.6

-118,2
-115,9
-118.9
-109.8

416.5
437.4
458.0
482.6

418.7
439.5
461.3
484.1

522.5
551.8
573.4
597.2

536.9
555.4
580.2
593,9

3,550.5
3,616.4
3,694.8
3,799.9

2,615.0
2,656.6
2,709,8
2,778.7

-82.8
-74.9
-66.2
-70,8

-78.2
-72.6
-74.9
-73.8

521.6
532.5
556.8
579.7

517.4
519.7
531.9
551.4

604.3
607.5
623.0
650.5

595.6
592,3
606.9
625.2

3,853.6
3,933.6
4,005.7
4,097.4

2,819.4
2,878.9
2,935.1
2,997.2

-54.0
-50.6
p-67.7

First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

-55.0
-51.2
p-74.1

605.6
626.1
p618.6

569.7
587,5
P587.5

659.6
676.6
p686.3

624.6
638.7
P661.6

4,185.2
4,249.6
(NA)

3,061.7
3,118.2
p3,170.5

1987
First quarter . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter ,
Fourth quarter

1988
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1989
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj l

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj l

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

269.4
289.5
279.7
289.2

9.6
11,5
11.7
13.5

292.7
280.9
279.7
275.2

327.9
325.4
324,9
324.0

559.6
523.0
508.8
510.0

550.8
542.8
545.5
539.3

135.9
155.0
106.6
102.0

306.7
305.8
305.2
328,7

14.7
13.0
11,5
14.3

279.9
293.7
313.0
308.2

334.2
347.2
355.3
370.0

529.5
535.0
551.1
599.5

546,8
556.4
571.0
573.9

135,9
55.9
73.6
141.8

324.0
331.8
327.0
328.3

15.6
14.6
16.3
16.1

318.1
325.3
330.9
340.2

376.6
383.0
396.4
415.7

619.1
633.4
669.8
647,4

588.1
588.5
592.8
605.8

131.9
134.0
149,6
163.4

359.3
355.5
P345.4

11.8
9,8
p4.8

316.3
307.8

436.1

693.5
695.8
(NA)

586.4
593.0

205.7
200.7
p!96.0

1987
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1988
First quarter , .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1989
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

(NA)

458.4
P470.7

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1

IVA J inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

82



OCTOBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q SAVING-Continued

Year
and
quarter

298. Government
surplus or deficit

Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

293. Personal
saving rate

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

248. Presidential
fixed investment
(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-127.2
-174.7
-143.4
-131.3

4.6
5.2
3.5
3.3

65.4
65.8
66.4
66.8

10.5
10.4
10.1
10.1

4.9
5.2
5.2
5.2

-153.2
-77.3
-93.5
-116,3

4.3
1.8
2.3
4.3

66.4
66.8
66.9
66.1

9.7
9.8

5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9

0.6
0.4
0.2
1.4

-2.4
»2.6
-2,5
-2.5

-101,0
-89.1
-72.7
-121.9

3.9
3.9
4.3
4.6

66.4
66.2
66.2
66.3

9.9

4.8
4.8
4.7
4.8

0.6
0.6
0.9
0.4

-1.7
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4

-98.7
-97.9

5.6
5.4

66.1
66.2

9.8
9.9

4.7
4.5

0.5
0.5

-1.1
-1.0

(NA)

p5.1

p9.9

p4.4

1.0
0.1
-0.2
-0,3

-2.1
-2.2
-2.4
-2,5

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

10.0

9.8

1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

10.0
10.1
10.0

1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

p66.6

pO.7

p-1.3

Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
|
Year
and
quarter

Percent of GNP-Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

Percent of national income

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

64. Compensation of
employees

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj l

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj *
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
l
IVA and CCAdj

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
. Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

8.6
8.8
8.7
8.6

11.8
11.9
12.0
12.1

73.3
73.3
73.8
74.0

8.0
8.5
8.2
8.3

0,3
0.3
0.3
0.4

8.7
8.3
8.2
7.9

9.7
9.6
9.5
9.3

8.6
8.4
8.4
8.3

12.1
12.0
12.0
12.0

73.7
73.5
73.3
73.1

8.6
8.5
8,3
8.7

0,4
0.4
0.3
0.4

7.9
8.1
8.5
8.1

9.4
9.6
9.6
9.7

7.9
7.8
7.5
8.1

, 12.1

73.2
73.2
73.3
73.1

8.4
8,4
8.2
8.0

0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4

8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3

9.8
9,7
9.9

7.8
7.8
p7.6

12.1
12.1

73.2
73.4
(NA)

8.6
8.4

0.3
0.2

7.6
7.2

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . .-..
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

12.0
12.0
12.1

10.1

1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

p!2.1

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

10.4
10.8
(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
J
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

OCTOBER 1989



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

'
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982^100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans *

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS

31 1 Index

(1982-100)

31k. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
320. Index ©

(1982-84-100)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spansl

(Percent)

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1982-84-100)

322c. Change
over l°month
spans *

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans x

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March , . . .

ne)6

April
May
June

117)1

July
August
September . ,

117)9

October
November
December . . . .

nsle

3.7

111.2
111.6
112.1

0.7
0.4
0,4

5.0
5.1
5.3

112.1
112.3
112.5

0.6
0.2
0.2

4.0
4.2
4,9

3.9

112.7
113.1
113,5

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.4
4.5
4.0

112.8
113.4
114.1

0.3
0.5
0.6

3.1
2,7
3.2

3,7

113.8
114.4
115.0

0,3
0.4
0.2

3.8
3.7
3.6

113.8
113.8
114.3

-0.3

0.0
0.4

3.0
2.3
2,1

3.6

115.3
115.4
115.4

0,3
0.3
0,2

3.9
3.3
3.7

114.5
114.7
115.3

0.2
0.2
0.5

3.4
3.0
3.0

3.3

115.7
116.0
116.5

0.4
0.2
0.3

3.9
4.0
4.4

115.7
115.5
116.0

0.3
0,4

3.7
4.2
4.4

5.0

117.1
117.5
118.0

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.4
4.7
4.9

116.6
117.1
117.8

0.5
0.4
0.6

5.6
7.0
7.6

5.5

118.5
119.0
119.8

0,4
0.3
0.4

4.8
4.5
4.5

118,9
119.5
120.3

0.9
0,5
0.7

7.0
6.4
5.9

4.3

120.2
120.3
120.5

0.4
0.3
0.3

4.8
4.9
5,1

120.6
120.8
121.2

0.2
0.2
0.3

5.5
5.3
5.6

4.1

121.1
121.6
122.3

0.6
0.4
0.5

5.6
6.2
5.9

122.1
122.6
123.6

0.7
0.4
0.8

6,1
7.1
6.9

5.3

3.2

123.1
123.8
124.1

0.7
0.6
0,2

5.2
4.3
3.6

124.2
125.0
125.3

0.5
0.6
0.2

6.0
5.5
4.3

124.4
124.6
125.0

0.2
0.0
0.2

125.7
125.9
126.2

0.3
0.2
0.2

115)7

3.8

116)9
2.8

117)9
2.4

119)6

1988

January
February
March

119)2

April
May
June

126)5

July
August
September

121)9

October
November
December

123)3

2.0

119)9
4.8

12l)4
4.4

123)6
4.7

124)4

-0.2

1989

January . . . . . . . . .
February
March

124)5

April .
May
June

125)9

July . . ,
August
September

pize.'s

4.0

125)6
4.6

127)2
p2.6

p2.9

pl28)6

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.

84



OCTOBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

JQ PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer price index, alt commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index ©

(1982=100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1 ©

{Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index ©

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

331c. Change
over 1-month
spansl

(1982=100)

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

{Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March

100.5
101.0
101.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

4.5
5.7
6.7

100.4
100.8
101.1

1.2
0.4
0.3

5.1
5.5
6.6

89.3
90.1
90.8

2.8
0.9
0.8

12,5
14.9
17.8

April
May
June

101.9
102.6
103.0

0.7
0.7
0.4

6.1
5.6
5.0

101.6
101.9
102.4

0.5
0.3
0.5

5.5
5.8
4.8

92.6
93.9
94.3

2.0
1.4
0.4

14.4
14.7
11.5

July
August
September .

103.5
103.8
103.7

0.5
0.3

4.4
3.1
2.3

103.1
103.7
103.5

0.7
0.6

4.8
4.6
3.5

95.5
96.5
95.9

1.3
1.0
-0.6

7.0
2.4
1.1

-2.9
-3.1
-2.7

-0.4

October
November
December

.

-0.1

-0.2

104.1
104.2
104.2

0.4
0.1
0.0

2.1
1.9
2,3

104.0
104.2
104,2

0.5
0.2
0.0

2.5
1.7
2.3

95.8
95.0
94.8

-0.1
-0.8
-0.2

January
February
March

104.6
104.8
104.9

0,4
0.2
0.1

3.3
4.5
5,8

104.4
104.6
104.7

0.2
0.2
0.1

3.1
3.7
4.3

94.1
95.0
94.6

-0.7

April
May
June

105.8
106.5
107.2

.

0.9
0.7
0.7

6.4
6.2
6.2

105.6
106.1
106.4

0.9
0.5
0.3

4.7
4.6
4.1

95.6
96.0
96.9

4.6
3.4
3.4

106,8
107.0
106.8

0.4
0.2

2.9
2.7
3.2

96.6
97.2
97.1

-0.3

-

0.7
0.1
0.1

4.9
5.3
6.4

107.1
107.5
108.1

0.3
0.4
0.6

5.3
5.9
7.0

96.6
94.8
97.8

-0.5
-1.9

7.7

1.4
0.5
0.4

9.0
9.3
7.9

101.8
101.5
103.7

-0.3

7.1

109.6
110.1
110.5

4.0
2.2
1.4

111.8
112.4
112.3

1.2
0.5

4.8
2.4
2.5

104.5
r!04,9
103.0

rO.4

1988

. .
.. .

July
August
September . . . . . . .

107.9
108.0
108,1

October
November
December

108.2
108.3
109,0

0.1
0.1
0.6

110.5
110.8
111.5

1.4
0.3
0.6

-0.2

1.0
-0.4

1.1
0.4
0.9
0.6
-0.1

3.2

2.1
4.5
5.4
4.7
5.4
2.1
-2.5

1.9
11.1

9.0
14.1

1989

January
February
March
April
May
June

112.3
rl!3.2
112.8

July

August
September

112.7
112.0
112.3

0.7
rO.8

r-0.4
-0.1
-0.6

0.3

r9.3

112.2
111.4
111.9

-0.1
-0.1

:

-0.7

0.4

103.2
101.2
102,3

4.1
2.2
0.8

r-1.8

17.0

r22.4
10.9

2.8
-0.6
-2.7

0.2
-1.9

1.1

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:

OCTOBER 1989




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

^H PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332. Index

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

332e. Change
over 1-month
l
spans

(1982-100)

Producer price index, capital equipment

(Ann, rate,
percent)

(Percent)

333. Index

(1982-100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1982-100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans *

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

0.1

1.6
1.3
1.3

102.0
102.6
102.9

0.7
0.6
0.3

4.2
4,6
4,8

0.3
0.1
0,0

0.7
1.6
2.4

103.4
103.6
103.7

0.5
0.2
0.1

3.8
2.6
3,1

0.1
0.3
0.4

1.1
1.1
1.3

103,9
103.9
104,5

0.2
0.0
0.6

1.7
1.2
0.4

0.1
0.1

2.2
2.2
1.4

104.3
104.2
103.9

-0.2
-0.1
-0.3

1.4
1,4
1.0

112.8
113.1
113.2

0.5
0.3
0.1

2.5
2.9
3.2

104.6
104.6
105.0

0.7
0.0
0.4

1.9
2.7
3.7

7.0
7.0
7,0

113.4
113.7
114,0

0.2
0.3
0,3

2,7
2.8
4.5

105,3
105.6
105.8

0.3
0,3
0.2

3,7
4,3
4.4

0.7
0.3
0.4

5.6
5.1
4.5

114.3
114.7
115,7

0.3
0.3
0,9

3,9
3.7
3.9

106,5
106,8
107.3

0.7
0.3
0.5

4,0
4.2
4.6

108,6
109.0
109.5

0.0
0.4
0.5

5.4
5.8
6.2

115,6
115.8
116.2

4.6
4.8
3,1

107.4
107,8
108.2

0.1
0,4
0,4

5.7
7,2
7.4

110,8
111,3
111,9

1.2
0.5
0.5

7.3
5.4

116.9
117.4
117.5

3.1

r6.9

4.3

109.5
110,6
111.2

1.2
1.0
0.5

8.7
rlO.l
8.7

112.5
r!12.7
112,4

0.5

2.5
1.1
0.7

117.4
rl!8.2
118.7

-0.1
rO.7
rO,4

3.1
2.7
4.6

112.0
rl!3.1
112.8

0.7

4.8
1.6
2.4

118.7
119.0
120.2

0,0
0.3
1.0

100.0

0.8
0.7
0.2

4,3
5,4
6,2

111.2
111.0
111,1

100.3
100.8
101.3

0.3
0.5
0.5

5.5
5.1
5.3

111.4
111.5
111.5

,,..

101.8
102,3
102.6

0.5
0.5
0.3

5.7
5.2
4.6

111.6
111.9
112.4

October . . . . . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December

103.1
103.4
103.6

0.5
0.3
0.2

5.0
4.5
4.7

112.0
112.1
112.2

January
February .
March . , . , . , ,

104.3
104.6
105.0

0.7
0,3
0.4

5.1
5.7
6.9

April . . . , ,
May
June

105.7
106.3
107.1

0.7
0.6
0.8

July
August
September

107.9
108,2
108.6

October
November
•December . . . . . . .

January
February
March

99,1
99,8

.. .

April
May
June
July
August
September

0.4
-0.2

-0,4

1988

-0.1

0.2
0.3

1989

January , , , . , , . , .
February
March ,
April
May
June
July
August
September

....

112.2
111,9
112,3

rO.2

r-0.3
-0.2
-0,3

0-4

0.6
0.4
0.1

r4.2

112.1
111.5
112,5

rl.O

r-0,3
-0.6
-0.5

0.9

October
November
December
See note on page 80,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

'Changes arc centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

OCTOBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

|
Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagncultural payrolls1
Year
and
month

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2

(1977-100)

(Percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

341. Index

(1977-100)

(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

(1977-100)

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann, rate,
percent)

1987

1.4

171.3
171.9
172.1

0.1
0.4
0.1

2.6
2.0
2.1

94.7
94.7
94.4

-0.7

-2.4
-3.1
-3.3

186 '.2

-0.3

172.5
172.9
172.9

0.3
0.2
0.1

2.3
2.6
2.9

94,1
94.0
93.7

-0.3
-0.1
-0.3

-2.1
-2.0
-1.5

187^4

July
August
September

173.2
174.1
174.6

0.2
0.5
0.3

2.8
3.3
3.3

93.7
93.8
93.7

-0.1

-1.3
-0.5
-0.1

m'.'e

October
November
December

174.9
175.6
175.7

0.2
0.4
0.1

4.0
3.0
2.8

93.5
93.8
93.7

-0.2

January
February
March

176.6
176.7
177.0

0.5
0.1
0.2

3.6
3.5
3.3

93.8
93.7
93.5

April
May
June

178.0
178.7
178.6

0.6
0.4

3.1
3.2
3.8

93.6
93.6
93.2

July
August
September

179.3
179.5
180.3

4,0
3.0

93.2
92.9
93.0

October
November
December

181.5
181.4
plSl.7

-0.1
pO.2

93.1
92,9

-0.2

p92.7

p-0.2

(3)

(3)

(3)

(3)

January
February
March

... ,

April
May
June

'

0.0

0.1
-0.1

0.3
-0.1

2.6
4.'6

4.8

7.2

0.2
-0.1
-0.4

3*.S

192!9

iia

s'.i

1988

-0.1

0.4
0.1
0.5

P 3.5

0.6

(3)

0.1
-0.1
-0.2

0.1
0.0
-0.4

0.0
-0.4

2.6

0.1
-0.5
-1.0
-1.2
-1.8
-1.1
-1.0
-1.3

0.2

(3)

5.8
196 '.9

i'.9

5.3
199^5

5*.5

p-1.0

0.1

5!2

194^2

5.9
202*.3

5*.4

1989

January
February
March

..

5.1

204.' 8

(NA)

5.6

April
May
June

207 '.6

July
August
September . . . .

(NA)
(NA)

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter,
3
This series has been discontinued by the source agency.

OCTOBER 1989



87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector— Continued
Year
and
month

Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions
348. Average
first-year
changes ©

Real compensation
346. Index

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(1977-100)

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans *

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, business sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

370. Index

(1977-100)

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector

(1977-100)

1987

January
February
March

1.1

-3.8

100 ".8

2.1

0.5

l'.9

107 '.7

zis

108 i 6

3i6

109 '.9

-6*.7

109is

iia

iiois

lie

niii

iio

noi?

oie

niie

i.'i

nzii

,

April
May
June

100 '.3

July .
August . . . .
September . . . .

106! 5

4.1

-2.1

October
November
December

3.9

-6'.4

1.1

ois

3.4

2.5

3.4

2.1

nii?

2.6

3.9

2.9

2.4

\.2

10K4

iioi?

112i5

,

1988

January
February
March

-1.0

.

101 '.1

April
May . . ,
June

ioi!i

July
August
September

loiis

October
November
December

loii9

1.2

iio
ois

0.6

1.8

113*.3

3.1

2,4

-2.0

mi?
3.4

3.1

3.2

113.*6

6i?

1.4

2.7

1.8

3.5

0.2

2.1

113.*6

6i2

1989

January
February
March

101 is

April
May
June

loiie

July . . . .
August
September

-0.4

-0.8

(NA)
(NA)

p3.2

1.0

p3.4

113*.9

(NA)

p5.0

p3.9

p3.4

niii

(NA)

niis

1.3

112.'6

(NA)

P 2.7

(NA)

(NA)

October
November
December
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on pae«s 49 and 50.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




OCTOBER 1989

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Q| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

442. Civilian
employment

Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

(Percent)

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

January
February
March

118,873
119,119
119,263

110,969
111,271
111,459

7,904
7,848
7,804

3,649
3,594
3,532

2,864
2,822
2,870

1,391
1,432
1,402

6,430
6,382
6,231

5,187
5,326
5,168

78.2
78.1
78.1

55.7
55.8
55.9

54.2
54.8
54.4

April
May
June

119,394
120,102
119,647

111,789
112,524
112,287

7,605
7,578
7,360

3,482
3,443
3,440

2,757
2,708
2,640

1,366
1,427
1,280

6,110
6,039
6,043

5,122
5,098
4,979

78.1
78.2
78.0

56.0
56.3
56.2

54,5
55.6
53.6

July
August
September

119,884
120,245
120,008

112,613
113,019
112,896

7,271
7,226
7,112

3,340
3,259
3,165

2,674
2,662
2,666

1,257
1,305
1,261

5,895
5,814
5,664

5,103
5,046
5,050

78.0
77.9
77.9

56.3
56.4
56.3

53.8
56.0
54.1

October
November
December

120,429
120,527
120,701

113,225
113,460
113,740

7,204
7,067
6,961

3,194
3,114
3,061

2,620
2,602
2,605

1,390
1,351
1,295

5,756
5,655
5,562

5,142
5,287
4,979

78.0
78.0
77.8

56,4
56.4
56.5

55.1
54.8
55.4

January
February
March

121,035
121,165
120,936

114,055
114,273
114,129

6,980
6,892
6,807

3,106
3,053
3,064

2,568
2,596
2,450

1,306
1,243
1,293

5,550
5,526
5,473

5,113
5,101
5,087

77.9
78.1
77.9

56,6
56.7
56.6

55.9
55.0
54.1

April
May
June

121,328
121,203
131,524

114,660
114,403
115,001

6,668
6,800
6,523

2,941
3,065
2,889

2,471
2,492
2,485

1,256
1,243
1,149

5,338
5,413
5,163

4,953
4,676
5,073

78.1
78.0
77.8

56.6
56,5
56.6

54.5
54.5
56.2

July
August
September

121,658
122,000
121,984

115,034
115,203
115,370

6,624
6,797
6,614

2,832
3,077
2,905

2,565
2,467
2,456

1,227
1,253
1,253

5,215
5,491
5,293

5,102
4,972
4,862

77.8
78.0
77.9

56.7
56.8
56.8

55.9
56.1
56.0

October
November
December

122,091
122,510
122,563

115,573
115,947
116,009

6,518
6,563
6,554

2,911
2,996
2,953

2,413
2,445
2,422

1,194
1,122
1,179

5,176
5,273
5,317

4,727
4,819
5,033

77.8
77.8
77.8

57.0
57.4
57,3

55,2
55.1
55.2

January
February
March

123,428
123,181
123,264

116,711
116,853
117,136

6,716
6,328
6,128

2,938
2,853
2,688

2,455
2,306
2,367

1,323
1,168
1,073

5,295
5,024
5,028

4,837
4,697
4,709

78.1
78.1
78.1

57.7
57.5
57.5

56.0
54.8
54.9

April
May
June

123,659
123,610
124,102

117,113
117,215
117,541

6,546
6,395
6,561

2,952
2,705
2,737

2,448
2,480
2,570

1,146
1,210
1,254

5,247
5,104
5,131

4,930
4,609
4,801

78.3
77.9
78.2

57.6
57.7
57.7

55.7
55.8
56,6

July
August
September

123,956
124,018
124,040

117,459
117,597
117,456

6,497
6,421
6,584

2,734
2,790
3,038

2,613
2,468
2,353

1,150
1,163
1,193

5,218
5,183
5,255

4,505
4,553
4,612

77.9
77.8
77.9

57.9
57.8
57,8

55.2
56.5
55.6

1987

,,

•

1988

...

=

1989

October
November
December
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.

ItCII OCTOBER 1989



OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Q DEFENSE INDICATORS
|

Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
|
State and local government l

Federal Government i
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)

Advance measures of defense activity

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

548. Mann
facturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

-199ii

860 '.7

l,06C)!i

46*.3

637!i

59C)!8

25,911
34,669
28,986

11,166
13,121
12,272

196,585
199,440
199,308

6,129
7,650
9,769

April
May
June

-13?!?

926.2

i.oeiia

6CL4

658!9

598 is

33,794
32,801
30,475

11,359
11,782
12,104

200,411
202,504
204,177

11,265
9,907
10,128

-143'.9

92JL5

i.oesis

s6is

659! 6

609 !i

31,867
32,619
34,065

12,913
13,595
13,683

207,148
209,556
215,074

9,882
9,179
9,102

-leiii

937 '.4

i.ioii?

48!6

668 '.9

620 '.9

29,233
30,794
24,532

10,555
9,353
11,820

212,355
212,086
205,974

9,864
9,824
7,036

January
February
March

-isi'.s

944 '.7

i.ogeis

SO'.S

684*. 8

634! 6

31,157
33,243
31,595

8,289
11,821
12,096

208,366
210,637
212,335

9,223
8,480
8,065

April
May .
June

-niii

973^2

1,114!?

52'.4

699 '.2

646! 7

33,172
32,294
36,167

15,035
13,958
13,721

210,520
214,223
219,469

9,871
8,215
13,829

July . . . . . . .
August
September

-122is

97?!3

I,099i8

49is

706.6

656i2

29,691
29,004
27,652

17,438
9,758
10,980

219,349
219,239
220,134

6,995
8,037
7,472

October
November
December

-i67ie

i,i62ii

45*.7

716'.5

67C)!8

31,118
34,783
31,522

(NA)

994 '.6

217,720
222,122
223,937

10,695
8,391
10,407

January
February . . , „ , . ,
March

-147is

I,036i2

1,183!?

4a!s

732 '.6

683 '.8

31,580
30,058
30,859

226,193
224,553
219,856

6,815
8,159
10,461

April
May
June

-145.4

1,053.2

1,198.6

47 is

742.6

695 il

31,395
30,056
29,495

222,194
221,337
216,120

8,551
7,572
8,938

(NA)

(NA)

p706'.3

r30,996
p28,530

220,028
p217,S09

r7,6Z6
r7,927
p!2,387

. ..

July
August
September

.

October
November
December
1988

....,

1989

July
August
September
October . .
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

pl,19li6

(NA)

(NA)

,,,

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1

Based on national income and product accounts.

90



OCTOBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
J) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Q DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equip*
ment
(1977 = 100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

570. Employment, defense
products industries

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty @
(Thous.)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP

(Percent)

1987

January
February
March

187.3
188.9
188.6

31,122
31,233
31,169

158,833
157,779
158,084

22,243
24,096
23,259

8,755
8,704
9,464

1,590
1,589
1,590

2,179
2,172
2,168

1,060
1,066
1,069

288 i 6

6^6

April
May
June

189.2
189.3
188.6

31,597
31,624
31,709

160,358
160,898
161,816

23,593
22,760
24,046

8,991
9,367
9,210

1,583
1,584
1,577

2,158
2,153
2,151

1,070
1,070
1,076

294! 6

e!e

188.7
189.1
189.8

32,174
32,553
32,668

162,605
162,741
162,316

22,858
24,340
21,513

9,093
9,043
9,527

1,577
1,576
1,574

2,158
2,167
2,174

1,078
1,080
1,088

300 !2

e!e

190.3
188.7
188.9

33,171
33,936
33,504

163,247
164,130
161,860

25,816
21,276
26,329

8,933
8,941
9,306

1,574
1,572
1,569

2,172
2,174
2,167

1,086
1,085
1,082

296^8

eii

January
February
March

190.6
191.0
189.9

33,656
33,859
33,945

162,206
162,089
160,841

20,786
23,441
23,752

8,877
8,597
9,313

1,570
1,566
1,558

2,166
2,162
2,142

1,076
1,071
1,067

297A

e',3

April
May
June

187.9
185.5
184.6

34,069
34,695
35,328

162,171
162,009
167,117

26,548
20,130
23,765

8,541
8,377
8,721

1,559
1,557
1,556

2,108
2,100
2,104

1,060
1,054
1,045

298 .'6

6.'2

July
August
September

184.9
184.9
184.5

34,799
34,071
34,839

165,449
164,451
163,092

24,243
23,321
20,636

8,663
9,035
8,830

1,550
1,548
1,542

2,111
2,122
2,138

1,034
1,039
1,048

296 !i

6.'6

184.0
182.2
180.5

35,410
35,351
35,373

165,356
165,087
165,397

27,027
24,443
26,357

8,431
8,660
10,097

1,536
1,534
1,530

2,130
2,130
2,122

1,044
1,044
1,048

300 '.5

e!6

January
February
March

180.0
179.3
178.7

35,777
35,793
36,416

163,482
163,238
165,250

20,843
23,426
26,053

8,730
8,403
8,449

1,530
1,529
1,529

2,124
2,123
2,116

1,054
1,058
1,058

298.7

ELS

April
May
June

179.9
180.7
181.1

36,362
36,786
36,776

165,168
164,043
163,756

21,035
24,087
26,829

8,633
8,697
9,225

1,528
1,530
1,526

2,110
2,111
2,115

1,061
1,063
1,059

301.' 3

S*.8

181.7
rlSl.O
p!80.5

r37,100
p37,447

r!63,189
r!62,179
pl65,242

21,068
r23,926
p29,634

r8,193
r8,937
p9,324

1,522
pi, 514

r2,117
2,126
p2,130

1,055
pi, 066

p306\2

P'S'.'B

Julv
August
September

..

October
November
December
1988

. ,.

October
November
December
1989

July
August
September

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

OCTOBER 1989



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments

604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

(Mil. dol )

(Mil. dol.)

1987
January
February
March

18,377
19,371
19,981

1,926
2,047
2,157

3,452
4,404
4,098

32,189
31,186
32,247

2,269
3,598
3,513

4,882
6,322
5,329

April
May
Jung

20,250
20,111
21,381

2,234
2,410
2,445

4,122
4,176
4,338

32,317
33,484
34,141

2,842
3,685
3,375

5,516
6,093
5,823

August
, ,
September . . . . , „ .

July .

22,472
20,845
21,669

2,956
2,520
2,625

4,260
4,420
4,717

34,927
34,506
34,015

4,125
4,574
3,439

5,800
6,008
5,307

October
November
December

22,136
23,327
24,187

2,593
2,409
2,472

4,407
5,371
5,371

36,253
35,219
35,758

3,780
3,292
3,158

6,776
6,342
6,560

24,669
24,839
26,762

2,759
2,893
3,033

5,040
5,177
5,442

35,165
36,325
36,338

3,541
3,536
3,225

5,441
5,659
5,677

April .
May .
June

26,040
27,446
26,706

3,027
3,382
3,120

5,288
5,374
5,353

35,360
36,137
37,304

3,226
3,802
3,060

6,220
5,507
5,351

July . , . . ,
August
September

26,612
27,478
27,578

3,311
3,357
3,493

5,457
5,778
5,876

35,074
37,623
36,750

3,122
3,360
2,927

5,378
5,888
6,354

October
November
December

27,889
27,538
28,864

3,090
2,909
2,995

5,698
5,709
6,393

37,121
38,087
39,668

2,718
2,645
3,347

6,589
6,291
6,946

28,980
28,839
30,064

3,143
3,201
3,666

5,338
5,990
6,162

37,877
38,220
39,549

3,619
3,326
4,095

5,627
6,326
6,282

30,758
30,455
31,285

3,387
3,618
3,638

6,150
4,937
6,382

39,045
40,534
39,293

4,730
4,680
4,001

5,869
5,770
5,289

r30,468
30,408
(NA)

3,657
3,139
(NA)

6,371
6,290
(NA)

r38,709
41,180
(NA)

4,130
4,227
(NA)

5,621
5,426
(NA)

1988
January ,
February
March

,,
,.

1989
January
February
March .
April
May
June

.

July
August
September
October
November
December . . . . : . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56,

92



OCTOBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted1

Goods and 'services
Year
and
month

668. Exports

667. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

669. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

618. Exports

Income on investment
620. Imports

(Mil. dol,)

651. U.S. investment abroad

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. do',)

1987

January
February
March

-31,190

104,315

135,505

-38,661

57,255

95,916

25, ii?

19,755

April
May
June

-35,555

105,694

141,249

-39,819

60,015

99,834

22,744

20,554

July
August
September

-36,687

110,922

147,609

-40,606

64,297

104,903

23,578

21,904

October
November
December

-26,055

125,211

151,266

-40,4i4

68,699

109, 113

33,265

20,207

-28,682

127, si6

156,492

-33,446

76,447

109,893

26,750

23,955

-30,586

126,800

157,386

-31,4li

78,4?i

109,882

23,148

25,613

July
August
September

-28,964

131,573

160,537

-30,339

80,604

110,943

24,720

27,3i6

October
November
December

-23,659

143,626

167,285

-33,019

83,729

115,748

33,159

28,670

-26,864

142,169

169,033

-28,378

87,9i9

116,297

26,830

29,246

p-27,894

p!45,865

p!73,759

p-27,718

p90,866

pl!8,584

p26,932

p31,947

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

..

1989

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

October
November , .
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

OCTOBER 1989




93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q| INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United States,
index of industrial production

Year
and
month

(1977-100)

721. OECD l
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1977=100)

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1977-100)

726. France,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1977c=iOO)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1977-1GQ)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)
Revised 2

1987
126.2
127.1
127.4

113
116
116

142.2
141.5
143.6

112
113
113

105
109
110

110
113
112

114.2
117.6
120.2

124.9
126.4
127.1

April
May
June

127.4
128.2
129.1

116
117
116

142.5
140.2
145.5

116
117
114

109
110
111

113
114
112

117.9
122.3
118.7

127.9
127.6
128.9

July
August
September

130.6
131.2
131.0

117
116
117

146.7
146.7
149.0

114
117
116

111
111
111

115
116
114

118.1
113.2
117.5

130.5
132.0
133.2

132.5
133.2
133.9

119
119
118

151.4
152.0
153.7

117
117
116

111
112
112

117
116
117

122.7
121.2
116.5

134.3
135.3
135.6

January
February . , . . , . . .
March

134,4
134.4
134.7

120
119
120

154.4
158.5
157.9

117
117
117

112
112
113

11?
115
117

126.9
121.5
124.1

136.0
136,2
137.4

April
May .
June . ,

135.4
136.1
136.5

120
120
r!21

157.8
156.4
159.2

117
118
120

112
113
115

117
118
119

124.8
123.1
125.4

137.5
138. B
139.0

July
August
September

138.0
138.5
138.6

122
123
122

157.9
162.3
162.5

118
122
121

116
116
117

119
119
120

128.5
126.0
124.1

138.6
140.6
140.2

October
November
December

139.4
139.9
140.4

r!22
124
125

160.6
165.2
165.7

121
120
122

113
118
117

119
120
119

127.6
129.1
132.2

139.0
138.2
139.2

140.8
140.5
140.7

125
124
124

167.4
164.4
173.2

122
122
122

118
117
117

118
118
118

127.9
130.3
126.9

138.8
139.4
139.1

141.7
141.6
r!42.Q

r!26
123
126

167,0
168.0
r!71,4

126
120
125

120
118
p!20

118
116
rl!6

127.0
125.2
r!28.9

140.2
140.7
140.5

142.0
142.4
p!42.3

p!28
(NA)

r!67.1
p!71.8
(NA)

128
p!26
(NA)

(NA)

pl!8
(NA)

p!30,9
(NA)

p!40.2
(NA)

January
February
March

.,.
,...

.,

October
November
December

1988

1989
January
February
March . ,
April
May
June

,

July
August
September
October
November
December . ,
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.

'Qrgunigatitm for Economic Cooperation and Development.
See "New Features and Changas far This Issue," page iii.

2

94



OCTOBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q CONSUMER PRICES
Japan

United' States
Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1982-84-100)

320c. Change .
over 6-month
spans *

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index ©

(1982-84-100)

United Kingdom

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March

111.2
111.6
112.1

5.0
5.1
5.3

103.9
103.9
104.3

2.5
0.6
1.5

104.6
104.7
104.7

1.3
1.5
1.2

119.6
119.8
120.0

4.1
3.9
3.4

117,5
118.0
118.2

5.4
3.8
2,6

April
May
June

112.7
113.1
113.5

4.4
4.5
4.0

105.3
105.5
105.3

2.1
3.3
2.1

105.0
105.0
105.2

1.7
1,7
1.0

120,6
120.8
121.1

2.2
2.5
2.5

119,6
119.7
119.7

2.2
2.0
2.7

July
August
September

113.8
114.4
115.0

3.8
3.7
3.6

104.7
104.8
105.8

-0.9
1.0
-0.2

105.2
105.1
104.9

0.6
0.4
0.8

121.3
121.6
121,7

2.3
2.3
2.8

119.6
120.0
120.3

3.7
4.6
4.8

October
November
December

115.3
115.4
115.4

3.9
3.3
3.7

105.8
105.3
105.1

0,0
-1.7
-0.6

105.0
105.0
105.2

-0.2
0.0
1.0

122.0
122.1
122.2

2.3
2.2
2.5

120.9
121.5
121.4

4.2
4.0
4.0

January
February
March

115.7
116.0
116.5

3.9
4.0
4.4

104.8
104.6
105.0

1.3
-0.2
0.4

105.4
105.6
105.7

1.1
1.7
1,3

122.4
122.6
123.0

2.6
2.8
2.3

121,4
121.8
122.3

3,8
3.8
4.5

April
May
June

117.1
117.5
118.0

4.4
4.7
4.9

105.6
105.7
105.5

1.0
2.3
1.3

106.0
106.2
106.3

2.1
2.3
1.9

123.6
123.9
124.2

3.3
3.4
3.6

124.3
124.8
125.2

5.7
7.7
8.3.

July
August
September

118.5
119.0
119.8

4.8
4.5
4.5

105.3
105.6
106.4

1.3
2.5
1.9

106.3
106.3
106.3

1.5
1.7
1.9

124.7
125.0
125.3

3.3
3.3
3.7

125.4
126.8
127.4

9.5
8.9
8.7

October
November
December

120.2
120.3
120.5

4.8
4.9
5.1

106.9
106.5
106.2

1.7
-0.2
0.9

106.4
106.7
106.9

3.2
3.2
3.8

125.6
125.8
126.0

3.4
3.2
3,5

128.7
129.2
129.6

8.8
7.9
7.2

January ,
February
March

121.1
121.6
122.3

5.6
6.2
5.9

106.0
105.7
106.2

3.0
3.4
4.0

108.1
108.4
108.6

4.6
4.5
4.3

126.5
126.8
127.2

3.9
4.2
3.7

130,4
131.4
131.9

6.9
7.9
8.3

April
May
June

123.1
123.8
124.1

5.2
4,3
3.6

108.1
108.7
108.6

4.4
4.4
(NA)

109.2
109.5
109.6

2.8
2.2
(NA)

128.0
128.5
128.7

3.3
3,5
(NA)

134.3
135.1
135.6

8.1
7.0
7.9

July
August
September

124.4
124.6
125.0

1988

1989

108.4
108.3
(NA)

109.5
109,4
(NA)

129.0
129,2
(NA)

135.7
136.1
137.0

October
November
December
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

OCTOBER 1989



95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q

CONSUMER PRICES - Continued
Canada

Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index ©

(1982-84-100)

Q| STOCK PRICES

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index ©

(1982-84-100)

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices @

(1967 = 100) (1967 = 100)

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

1987
January .
February
March ,

131.6
132.1
132,6

4.2
4.8
4.5

115.8
116.3
116.8

4.2
4.6
4.4

287.7
305.6
318.1

1,493.7
1,577.6
1,676.0

302.0
278.9
282.4

642.3
660.4
708,3

840.5
916.9
972.3

526.4
502.8
501.8

378.4
395,4
422.5

April
May
June

133,0
133.5
133.9

4.8
6.0
6.5

117.3
118.0
118.4

5.1
5.2
4.7

314.7
314.5
327.8

1,857.4
1,937.7
1,966.6

297.5
295.7
306.9

726.4
703.9
664.8

956.1
1 S 040.9
1,097.5

533.0
519.3
507.5

420.0
416,4
422,6

July
August
September

134.3
134.7
135.6

6.7
6.3
5.6

119,2
119.3
119.3

4.5
3.8
3.9

337.3
358.3
346.6

1,807.8
1,903.4
1,889.0

320.4
333.3
322.8

692.1
705.0
730.1

1,154.7
1,101.1
1,121.0

494.6
459.7
451.7

455.4
451.3
440.9

October
..
November
,,,
December , , .

136.9
137.2
137.5

5.3
3.9
3.6

119.7
120.2
120.3

3.2
2.9
3.5

304.8
266.5
262.1

1,833.0
1,677.8
1,655.2

299.4
229.2
219.4

633.1
508.5
484.9

1,027.7
794.1
810.4

449.8
366.8
361.1

341.2
336.5
357.1

January
February
March

138.2
138,5
139.2

3,4
3.5
4.0

120.6
121.0
121.6

3.5
4.4
4.2

272.5
280.8
289.1

1,656.1
1,797.8
1,910.6

208.4
218.4
232.4

465.0
501.8
510.3

863.3
858.5
888.0

348.9
334.0
377.1

345.4
362 . 1
374.4

April . . .
May
June

139,6
140.0
140.5

4.5
6.0
5,8

122.0
122.8
123.0

4.4
5.2
4.7

285.7
278.6
294.4

1,961.2
1,963.0
1,979.2

230.8
225.4
240.6

523.6
546.1
609.5

879.6
878.4
908.7

383.2
359.7
372.7

377.4
367.1
388.9

July
August
September

140.9
141.5
142.2

6.0
7.1
7.0

123.7
124.1
124.2

4.8
3.6
3.6

292.7
286.9
291.5

1,972.0
1,988,3
1,924.2

247.6
248.1
254.8

632.4
618.7
636,1

932.0
908.5
872.4

399.7
416.5
392.9

381.6
371.3
371.0

October
November
December . . . . . . .

143.3
144.5
145.0

6.9
6.7
7.0

124.8
125.1
125.1

4.4
4.2
4.6

301.8
294.8
300.8

1,923.3
2,008.1
2,084.8

266.3
266.5
273.7

682.9
698.4
746.7

908.5
899.5
865.1

431.9
432.9
436.4

383.7
372.3
383.0

146.1
147,3
148.0

7.8
6.9
7.4

125.7
126.6
127.2

4.5
6.2
7.2

310.5
319.8
318.4

2,207.6
2,237.4
2,188.6

284.2
284.2
287.3

799.8
814.5
810.8

926.6
1,007.8
1,029.5

433.8
411.7
409,6

408.7
403.6
404.3

149,0
149.6
150.3

7,0
6.4
6.0

127.6
128.9
129.6

6.4
5.8
6.1

328.8
341.5
352.2

2,231.0
2,284.3
2,241.9

295.9
295.9
309.7

838.9
847.3
885.0

1,023.5
1,053.6
1,065.6

426.8
422.2
447.0

409.9
418.9
425.0

361.1
377.0
377.8

2,287.9
r2,383.6
rp2,370.8

313.4
328.6
(NA)

890.5
904.1
rp947.5

<NA)

476.9
p505.7
rp510.3

448.7
453.1
445.5

p380.2

p2,414.6

p482.4

P448.8

1988

....

1989
January
February
March
April
May
June . .

, ..

July
August
September

150.7
150.9
151.6

130.4
130,5
130,7

October , , . . . . . , .
November
December . . . . . . .

P945.7

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96



OCTOBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected leading index components
92. Change in manufacturers'
unfilled orders in 1982 dollars,
durable goods industries 1

Year
and
month

(Bil. dol.)

83. Index of
consumer expectations 1 2

62. Change in index of labor
cost per unit of output,
manufacturing 1

®

Smoothed3

Actual

Selected lagging index components

Smoothed3

Actual

(Bil. dol.)

(1st Q
1966=100}

120. Change in consumer price
index for services 1

Smoothed3

Actual

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

5.2
4.1
4.1

3.9
4.0
4.0

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March

-3.66
-1.17
0.78

-0.79
-1.01
-0.90

80.9
81.6
83.3

11.0
-5.1

2.6

-0.3
-0.6
-0.3

April
May
June

4.20
3.89
3.58

-0.15
0.84
1.78

84.7
80.6
80.8

-9.1
-2.6
-2.6

-1.4
-2.1
-2.6

5.2
4.1
2.0

4.2
4.4
4.1

July
August
September

4.90
2.04

83,. 3
85.8
84.2

-8.4

-3.7

-0.12

2.75
3.23
3.05

-2. ,6
0.1

4.1
6.2
3.0

3.9
4.2
4.1

October
November
December

2.40
1.37
1.16

2.87
2.55
2.18

80.4
72.7
76.7

-7.6

0.7
1.2
0.7

5.1
5.0
4.0

4.2
4.4
4.4

2.58
2.24

2,02
1.95
1.38

80.9
81.9
85.2

0.8
1.4
3.4

6.0
5.0
4.0

4.7
4.9
4.8

1.25
0.99
1.59

82.4
87.3
85.7

-9.1
-3.4

2.9
1.8
1.8

3.9
4.9
3.9

4.7
4.7
4.5

82.3
88.8
89.5

-6.7
-0.9

0.7
0.3

3.9
5.9
3.9

4.4
4.5
4.5

2.4
2.2
1.0

5.3
5.8
5.8

4.6
4.9
5.2

0.4
1.0
3.5

4,8
5.7
5.7

5.3
5.4
5.5

2.6
1.6

2.8
5.7
3.7

5,2
5.1
4.8

6.6
3.7
1.8

4.9
4.8
4.4

9.2
13.0

1.8
-4.3

1988

January . . . . : , . . .
February
March
April
May
June .

.-2.01
2.86

-0.10
6.59

3.6
4.5
13.9

7.2

July
August
September

-0.20

1.90
2.24
2.11

October
November
December

2.81
0.43
6.58

2.12
1.91
2.41

87.0
86.3
85.5

13.8
-8.2
-5.9

2.56
1.06
1.88

2.72
2.68
2.55

89.9
88.8
87.6

17.7

3.80
2.91

2.64
2.31
2.20

83.2
80.1
82.0

r2.81
r-2.00
pi. 59

r2.22
rl.66
pi. 32

85.5
80.3
88.6

1.32
3.02

7.2

-0.2

1989

January
February
March
April
May
June

-0.20

.

. . .

July
August
September

1.8
7,2

-15.0
0.0
rO.9

4.4
r3.5
p2.6

rl.O
rl.l
rl.5

pi. 8

October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13 and 15.
'These series reached high values before 1987: series 92 actual (8.31), series 92 smoothed (4.40), and series 83 (97.7) in March 1984;
series 62 actual (29.6) in March 1986 and smoothed (5.2) in March 1985; and series 120 actual (8.4) in July 1984 and smoothed (5.8) in September 1984.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's
Survey Research Center.
3
This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.

OCTOBER 1989




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
910.

19S4.
1957]
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1964!
1965.
1966.

1968*.
19?o!
1971,
1972.
1973.
1974,
1975.
1976,
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1986.

41,4
48.2
51.1
§0.0
46.5
53.8
55. 0
54,2
59.9
62.2
66.1
71,7
75.8
73.3
78.0
83.1
79.0
79,8
88.1
97.3
95.5
78.0
93.0
98.5
101.9
105.3
101.2
102,8
97.2
106,8
123. 1
121. S
128,1
136.8
139.3

41,8
49.1
50,7
49.8
46.1
54.5
34,3
54,6
60.6
62,8
66.6
71.7
76,0
72.9
78.7
82,9
77,9
80.8
89,0
97.8
94,4
78.0
94,0
99,3
102.9
105.5
101.5
101.5
98.9
109.1
123.4
121.8
129.0
137.6
141.0

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

1964*.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981,
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988,

12.2

0.0

42.4
49.9
51.0
49 .1
46.7
55.3
53.4
56.1
60.3
63.8
67.5
72.0
76.7

43,0
50.2
50,2
49,1
47.6
55.4
53.5
56.8
59.7
64.3
68.0
72.6
75.9

43,6
50.3
49.9
49.0
48,5
55.4
53.5
57,4
59.1
64,2
68.2
72.5
75.4

44.1
50.8
50,3
48.7
49.7
55.2
53.7
57.5
59.5
64.1
69.0
72.8
75.1

44.3
50.6
50.4
48.6
50.6
54.7
53.9
58.4
59.6
64.3
69.5
72.7
74.4

44.9
51.0
50.2
47.9
51.5
54.8
54.0
58.0
60.0
64.8
70,1
73.3
74.0

79.2
82.7
77,2
81,8
89.9
97*8
94.9
78.7
94,4
99.7
103.0
106.1
98.0
102.0
98.3
111,4
123.3
122.4
130.1
138.1
141.4

78.5
83.1
76,3
82,8
90.3
97.6
93.1
81.2
94.4
100.3
104.1
104.5
95.3
103.5
99,1
113.5
123.3
121.9
131.4
138.3
'

79.0
82.9
76.7
83.2
90.8
97.6
92.7
83.1
95.3
100.8
104.3
105.1
93.6
103.7
99.4
115.3
123.0
122.7
131.3
139.2

79.2
82.3
76.9
83.3
91.4
97.5
91.1
84.3
96.1
101.3
104.5
104.6
94,9
102.7
98.8
116.9
121.8
123.9
132.2
140.6

79,6
81. 8
76.6
83.3
92.5
97.4
90.0
85.7
97.3
101.1
104.6
103.1
96.9
102.0
99.4
116.2
121.3
124,3
132.7
142.0
'

79.2
81.7
76.6
83.4
93.6
96.6
87.7
86.9
97.4
101.5
105.0
102.7
98.9
102.1
98.8
118.4
120.9
125.3
132.8
143,3
4,

80.2
81.9
76.7
83.9
94,5
97,0
85.3
88.2
97.7
101,9
106.1
103.0
101.1
100.0
100.6
119.6
120,6
126.0
133.0
142.9

-4.6

5.9

Nov.

45.8
50.9
50.4
47.5
52.1
54.5
53.8
58.8
60.2
65,1
70.3
74.1
73.3
76.9
81.4
81.1
76.5
84.6
95.0
96.9
83.4
89.2
97.5
101.8
107 .1
101.6
102.5
98,5
101.8
121,1
119.4
126.1
134.3
142.3
*

46.7
51,2
50.6
47.0
53.0
54,0
53.7
59,4
61.2
65.4
70.8
74.9
73,1
77.2
81.9
80.5
76,9
85.4
95.9
97,2
81.1
90.1
98.0
102.3
106.3
100.8
104.1
97.8
103.0
121.9
120.1
126.2
135.3
140.3

IQ

II Q

= 3.7
-15.5
36.9
-3.6
-13.1
-1.1
7.4
0.0
-7.J
26.9
16.3
12.6
3.8

= 13.0
0.0
13.7
10,2
12.4
2.3
3.6
= 14,2
23.1
29,1
3.0
3.0
8.8

6.5
11.3
5.2
4.9
1.2
7,0
= 34.4
6.1
= 7,0
28.4
•1.0
6.1
10,7

= 20.5
45.5
0.0
7.5
13,6
= 16.7
-28. 5
19.1
10.2
25.1
0.0
-4.8
12.7
S ,9

78.7
87,0
96.8
95.8
79.1
90.6
98.8
103.1
105.4
100,6
102.8
97.8
104.7
122.1
120.3
127.7
137.2
139,7

72.9
78.6
82.9
78,0
80.8
89.0
97.6
94.9
78.2
93.8
99.2
102,6
105.6
100.2
102.1
98.1
109.1
123.3
121.9
129.1
137.5

73.7
78.9
82. 8
76,6
83.1
90.8
97.6
92.3
82.9
95.3
100.8
104.3
104,7
94.6
103.3
99.1
115.2
122.7
122.8
131.6
139.4

76,2
79.7
81.8
76,6
83.5
93,5
97.0
87.7
36.9
97.5
101.5
105.2
102.9
99.0
101.4
99.6
118.7
120.9
125.2
132.8
142.7
.

77.4
81.9
80.6
77.4
85.7
95,9
96.6
81.2
90.0
98.1
102,4
106.3
101.0
103.1
98,0
103.2
121.7
119.9
126.7
135.6
140.8
4 ,

6,0

16.2

ao.2

12.6

24.2

-4.7
-16.0
23,6
2.2
2.2
-7.9

4.9
- .6

4.9
-11.9

-4.6
-9.7

-2,9
-6.9

-7.3
-3.9

2.6
-8.5

1,7
-10.4

- .4
- .4
17.9

-10,5
-2.2
13.0

30,2
0,0
10.6

19.4
-12.2
13.4

0.7
0.8
15.2

-4.1
3,8
4.9

4.4
-2.2
13.8

9.7
10.9
10.4
-6.3

5.7
3.5
13.9
-10.8

5,7
8.9
13.8
-3.2

3.7
7.0
11.8
-4.8

10.8
8,8
5.2
7.2

5.9
7.4
2.4
-7.5

3.9
11.7
4,6
-7.2

5.0
6.5
13.2
-6.3

6.2
-7.1
-4.6
0.0

-5.9
-1.5
0.0
1.5

16.2
3.0
1.6
7.4

19.5
-11.1
-3.1
10.5

7.6
-8.S
6.5
12.0

6.0
-4.4
32.0
25.0

5,9
2.2
-14.1
16.7

0.3
-1,7
-1.1
7.7

5.5
-1.9
-1.0
3.0

11.0
-8.0
11.8
15,8

5.1
-28.3
19.5

-1.2
-23.7
14.5

3.8
-28.5
12.8

-16.0
-25,9
6.9

4.2
-3.4
-1.4

-1.2
-14.8
32.1

3.8
0.2
2.7
-7.8
-2.7
3.0
28,1

6.6
6.1
-5.1
-10.0
3.5
2.3
21.3

-1.8
-22.9
19.9
7,0
2.5
6.4
-5.6
28.8
-9.6
8,2
9.7

-4.5
-26.0
11.4
4.7
4.9
-2.1
-8.9
8.1
-8.3
17.4
8.8

7.0
2.4
7.9
~n A

5.7
13.3
-8,5
A ft

-9.4
-26.7
18,2

-2.3
1.2
-15.9
28.4
-7.9
7.5

4,9
4.7
-4.6
27.8
1,2
-7.0

4.8
13,3
3.6
30,2
-22,1
24.2

-1.2
11.9
-15.1
17.9
-16,6
15.3

6.1
-8.6
-9.1
20.4
-8.2
15.1

9.8
-9.7
-2.4
-14.0
0.0
21.7

-4.8
3.9
4.6
12.6

-3.9
10.1
0.9
11. «

-2.9
6.9
1.8
-3,3

-11,3
1.0

7,3
1.0

2.0
15.2

7,2

5.3

-5.0
8. 7

2.7
5.3

7,6
7 9

22.7
1.6

6.9
19.3

15.0
7.2

-8.2
13,7

-6.7
-2.2

-4.2
20,1

-4.9

-15.6

910C. C H A N G E IN COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 11 LEAD I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 3-MONTH S P A N S
BUT)
{
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957,
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961,
1962,
1963,
1964.
1963.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973,
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983,
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988,

4.9
22.2

5.9
20.9

10.0
14.9

12.0
9.3

16.1
4.9

17.0
7.4

= 6.2
-7.4

-7.0
-0,9

= 7.0
1.7

-5.5
13.7

= 4,0
18.3

2.2
6.9
8.3
10,9
7.5

-11.1
14,8
2.7
10.7
8.7

-5.8
17.1
-5.8
9.9
8,7

6.0
-1.1
8,0
5.0
= 12.3
21.9
18.0

•=-12,4
13,3
4,8
10.8
8.8
5,2
7.1
-1.1
5.8
2.0
= 14,1
16,7
14.0

4.8
= 2,2
2.6
0,0
-13,0
15,9
10.4

-11.0
= 14.4
18.5
5.4

= 3.7
= 2,0
17.9
3.7

= 3.0

2,7

11. a

= 9.6
4.6

as. 9

S.0
5.8
9.2
7.0
2.0

28*.2
4,0
7.2
7,7
2.6
5.0

-3.2
28.3

12,5
5,7
2 .4
-8.7
27.1

16.3
0.8
0.8
-9.5

0.8
15.2
-9.5
5.8

2.3
10,4
= 5 .2
1 .9

3.0
11.8
-0.7
0.0

3.8
4.2
6 .2
3.8

0,7
9.4
4.6
6.4

4.5

0.6

4.5

7.3

3.9
1.5
0.0
-6.0
12.4
8.3

10.9
0.0
-1.9
-1.5
7.5
6.8

14.4
5.7
-6.1
1.6
2.4
10.1

16.7
1.0
-5.7
-0.5
1.0
12.9

12,3
5.1
- .9
- .0
.9
1 .3

8.2
9.4
-3.4
-0.5
6.4
11.3

= 9.7
17.4
6.2
7.5

-7.0
28.8

= 15,1
31.6

-19.9
19.6

-2 .1
1 .8

-26.3
17.4

6.2

6.6

3,2

-3.0

-U5

-5.5

-S.3

-8.8

-5.7

-7.2

-9.0

-1.6

-1.1

2.8
8.1
27.6
0.7
1.3
10,7

9.0
2.0
24.7
-1.3
3.0
7.3
4.7
2.3

2.8
2.1
21.3
-4.8
5.0
6.6
7,4
7,6

-5,7
1.2
17.6
-6.3
8.1
4.0
11.1
2.8

-6.0
-2,4
11.2
»6.7
8.7
4.6
12.3
6.6

-10.1

-13.0
10.0
10.2
-6.1
5.9
4.9
0.8
2.8

-15.8
18.1
12,4
-2.6
2.9
7.7
-8.1
0.0

-8.5
17,3
8.6
-1.0
5.5
13.2
-8.7
4.0

-5.2
21.1
6.8
7.2
6.5
7.7
-8.2
5.7

-3.3
4,9
27.2
3.2
4.8
9.2,
4.7
5.0

e.'o

-12.7
24.1

23.5
4.8
-12.5
20.4

24.2
2.4
-10.4
11.3

3.0
7.7
14.0
6.3

-7.1
11.7
5.3
10.8

-0,
14.
-6.
5,

2.5
8.5
3.4
3.4
9.S
4.1

-0.2
9.
12.
6.
7.
11.

3.7
14,3
-5.7
1.6
9.9
10.2

7,5
10.9
-8.0
10.8
15.6
10.1

5.8
8.6
-10.0
18.4
17.6
10.0

-1.5
5.5
2.3
-13.1
18.2
14.1

9.
2.
-2.
-2.
7.
8.

12.4
5.2
-3.7
-0.7
3.4
12.8

5.
11.
-7,
10.
14.
10.1

-23.5
18.2

-8,1
0.3
14.2

-11.
28.
8.

-23.1
18.9
5.6
2,7

-25.5
15.0
3.8
2.8

-6.8
26.2
-9.7
5.0
10.3
-5.6
7.2
4.0
6.6
2.9

-5.9
10.3
-9.8
18.8
9.3
1.2
5.0
9.5
-8.3
3.2

-26.1
11.3

NOTE: Series 910 contains r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1984. The percent changes are shown for the f i r s t time since before the overall revision of
the composite Index early this year. Percent changes are centered w i t h i n the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month
changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.




23.5
2,9
0.0
-10.4
15.1

= 2.2
13.8
11.8
5.0

2.8

7.5
9.6
-3*9
7.0
2.4
6,7
-0.8

13.8
3.2
1.6
-7,4
25.2

-1.5
7 .0
11 .2
7.0

-26.9
15.6

14,8
8.6
-1.5
-7.4
14.3
5,1
-2.5
11,8
3.5
6,4
8.6
6.4
-3.4
7.6
5.7
-2.4
-1.1
10.8
11.3
-0.8
-16,8
15.5
9.5
4.4
2.
-4,

-A!

7,
17.0
-1.3
6.3
7.6
2.2
4 2

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

12,7
3,2
1.6
-4.0
27.7

20, a

44.0
50.3
50.5
48.6
49.3
54.8
53.8
57.2
60.2
64.2
68.7
73.0
75.0
75.0
79.8
82.0
77.2
83.3
92.3
97,2
89.0
84. S
96.2
101.0
104.6
103.6
99.2
101.2
100.0
116,2
121.7
124.2
132.3
140.1
142,8

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

2.4
-2.4
24,0
-10.3
4.6
20.5
2.0
3.8
9.1
-1.6
-10.6

-1 .2
-13.6
21.9

Annual

SPANS

-1 7

-13.'
IS.
5,

46.6
51.1
50,5
47.0
52.7
54.6
53.7
59.4
61.0
65.4
70.8
74.9

10.1
-7.1
34.1
-4.2
4.6
2.1
8.4
-1,9
15,0
5.1
-4.7

-6,9
-2.4
2S.2
0.0
0.0
13.4
-11.4
-1.9
3.6
-1.6
-7.6
15.7
3.1
-8,3
3.2
1.5
8.2
-1.2
-18.9
18.8
10.6
6.1
2.3
-5.6
18.0
-11.0
-7,0
18,0
-11.1
12.4
8.5

0.0

44.4
50,8
50.3
48.4
SO. 6
54.9
53.9
58.0
59.7
64.4
69.5
72.9

19,5

-17.3

25.7
2.2
2.3
16.0
-11.3
9.8
9.3
10.5
-11.8
12.2
7.9
= 2.
6.
6.
6.
0,
-5.
32.
12.
6.
2.
7.
-19.
2.
3.7
20.8
-2.9
8.2
-0.9

43.0
50.1
50.4
49.1
47.6
55.4
53.5
56.8
59.7
64.1
67.9
72.4

26.3

14,7

= 2!s
22.4
= 4.3
11, ft
0.0
10.2
9.5
8,8
3.2
8.6
-1.3
12.3
-16.5
18,1
16.1

41.7
49.0
50.9
49.8
46.4
54.5
54.2
54,7
60.4
62.8
66.6
71.8

47.4
51.3
50.4
46.6
52.9
55.2
53.7
59.9
61.7
65.6
71.2
75.6
72.8
78,1
82.3

2 .9

18.1

2.4
-9.3
5.3
O.O
0,0
16.3
-5.8
9.9
9.3
-1.
-3.
5.
-10,

IV Q

17.5

18.4

4.8
= 7.0
10.9
19,1
-18.2
19.1
0.0
10.0
7.5
6.9
IS.2
=4.8
7.9
-2.9
= 10.3
15.9
12 .8

III Q

5.6

12.0

=9.0
= 4,7
-9.8
16,8
-14.2
9.2
15,0
12.2
9.5
0.0
3,2
-6.4
11,3
-2.9
-15.3
16.1
13,0

i <;.?

Dec.

A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D

42.0
49.7
50.9
49.5
46.5
55.3
53.4
55.4
60,6
63.3
67.0
72.1
76.9

TK
910C. C H A N G E IN COMPOSITE I N D E X 0F 11 L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 1-MON
( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T )

1954,
1955.
19S6,
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.

Oct.

COMPOSITE I W D E X OF 11 L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R S
(1982-100)

-4.1
2.0
1,8
21.2
-4.1
5.4
6.0
7,7
4.2

14.8
8.2
-1.6
-7.2
14.6
3.1
-1.4
11.0
3.6
6.5
8.4
6.0
-3.0
6.6
6.1
-3.0
-1.4
10.8
11.4
-0,4
-17,1
15.6
8.0
4.1
3.3
-4.5
4.0
-5.2
7.6
17.0
-1.3
5.6
7.2
2,7
3.8

(OCTOBER 1989)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Mar.

Apr.

May

45,3
48,4
52.0
53.2
47.3
52.3
54.2
51.1
55.7
57.3
60.4
65,9
72.2
74.7
78.4
83.1
83.3
81.5
86.6
95.1
95.2
84.4
91.0
96,6
103.5
112 .0
109.5
108.0
102.6
98.4
110,7
115,7
117.7

45.1
49.0
52.4
52.6
46.6
53.2
54.2
51.4
56.0
57,7
61.1
66.2
72.3
74.8
78,7
83.2
83.0
81.8
87.5
95.0
94.7
84.8
91.7
97.2
106.0
110.2

44.8
49.6
52.1
52.4
46.7
53.7
53.9
52.0
56 .0
58.0
61.5
66.6
72.7
74.8
79.2
83.4
82,7
82.2
87.8
95.4
95.2
84.8
92.0
97.8
106.4
111.4

45.0
49.8
52.1
52.5
47.3
53,9
53,6
52.7
56.0
58.1
61.6
67.1
73.5
75.0
79.8
83.8
82.4
82 .4
87.6
95.8
95.2
85.1
92.2
98.6
107.2
111.1

107.8
102,0
99.1
111.0
116.0
119.2

107.4
101.7
100.2
111.4
116.0
118.4

107,9
100.5
101.4
112.5
115.7
118.2

126,7

Feb.

Jan.

126.9

127.2

128,2

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct. 1 Nov. Dec.

IQ

II Q

Hi Q

IV Q

Annual

9
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

( 1 9 8 2 = 100)

45.9
47.5
52.0
53.4
47.9
51.6
54.5
50.8
55.3
57.1
60.3
65.1
71.3
74,7
78.1
82.4
83,3
81.3
85.7
95.2
95.6
85.9
90.8
95.7
102.1
110.9
110.5
108.2
103.0
97.6
110.2
115.2
117.8

45.9
47.2
52.0
52.9
48.9
51.1
54.7
51.0
54.7
56.6
59.7
64.7
70.9
75.0
77.5
82.0
83.5
81.5
85.4
94.4
96.3
87.2
89.8
95.3
101.1
110.5
111 .0
108.5
102.1
97.9
109.1
114.7
117.9
119.3
125.2

1954...
1955...
1956...

1957. . .
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962..,
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969.,,
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...

1978. . .
1979...

1980. . .
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

1987 ...
1988...

920C.

126.0

CHA N G E I N

44.8
50.4
50.3
52.5
48.0
53.5
53.3
52.8
56.3
58.4
62.2
67.9
73.6
75.2
80.2
84.4
82.5
82.1
88.2
96.2
95.2
85.5
92.6
99.3
107 .4
111.0
104.1
108.4
99.6
102.3
113.0
115.4
118.2
122.4
128.6

46 .6
51.9
53.2
49.6
50.2
53,9
51.2
55.1
56.6
59.6

45.7
47.7
52.0
53.2
48.0
51.7
54.5
51.0
55.2
57.0

45.0
49.5
52.2
52.5
46.9
53,6
53,9
52.0
56.0
57.9

44.9
50,5
51.5
52.3
48.5
52.3
53.0
53.2
56.4
58.5

98.3
91.5
87.7
94.1
101,3
110.1
110.6
108.1
105.1
97.2
106,2
114.2
116.9
119.4
124.6
130.3

70.5
74.5
77.9
81.9
84.4
80.9
84.2
94.1
97.2
88.6
88.3
95.2
101.8
110.9
110.4
108.5
103.8
97.0
10? .6
114.9
117.7
120.7
126.1
131.1

65.2
71.5
74.8
78.0
82.5
83.4
81.4
85.9
94.9
95.7
85.8
90.5
95.9
102.2
111.1
110.3
108,2
102.6
98.0
110.0
115.2
117.8
120.4
126.0

66.6
72,8
74.9
79.2
83.5
82.7
82.1
87.6
95.4
95.0
84.9
92.0
97.9
106 ,5
110.9
105.6
107.7
101.4
100.2
111.6
115 .9
118.6
121.3
127.4

68.1
73.8
75.6
80.3
84.6
82.2
82.2
89.3
96.2
94.6
86.5
92.8
99.8
108.0
110.7
104.9
108.1
98.9
102.8
113.2
116.0
118.7
122,8
128.9

44.8
50.3
51.9
52.5
48.5
51.8
53.0
53.3
56.5
58.4
62.6
68.0
73.8
75.8
80.2
84.6
82.1
81.8

45,0
50.8
52.4
51.9
48.9
51.7
52,7
53.4
56.4
58.8
63.0
68.3
73.9
75.8
80.5
84.8
81.9
82.6

45.3
51.2
52.9
51.3
49.3
51.4
52.6
54.1
56.6
59.2
62.4
69.1
74.4
75.6
81.0
85.1
80.1
82.7

46.2
51.6
52.7
50.6
50.5
52.1
51.8
54.8
56.9
59,0
63.5
69.8
74.3
76.9
81.7
84.4
79.4
83.4

96.1
94.5
86.7
92.7
99.6
108.0
110.8
104.9
108.3
98.9
102.1
113.1
116.2
118.5
123.0
129.0

96.4
94.1
87.2
93.0
100.4
108.5
110.4
105.6
107.5
98.2
104.1
113.5
116.3
119,4
123.1
129.0

97.5
93.7
87.7
92,7
100.9
109.5
110.7
107,1
106,3
97.3
105.4
113.4
116.3
119.0
124.9
130.4

C O M P O S I T E I N D E X O F 4 R O U G H L Y C O I N C I D E N T I K E I C A T O R S OVER 1-MOKTH

1956 . . ,
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...

1963. . .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...

197 1 ...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

1982 .. .
1983...
1984...
1985.,.
1986...
1987...

1988. ..

A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D

-9.9
16.6
2.3
-6.6
-15.7
23.8
19.3
-4.6
-8.4
0.0
2.0
1.9
7.0
8.4
-6.0

0,0
7.9
0.0
12.0
-22.0
12.4
-4,3
-4.6
14.0
, 11.1
12.7
7.7
7.0
-4.7
9.7

-14.6
25.3
0.0
-4.4
-14.0
17.6
-6.4
7.3
9.0
4.3
2.0
15.8
16,2
0,0
4.7

-5.2
15.9
9.6
-12.7
-16.4
22.7
0.0
7.3
6.7
8.7
14.8
5.6
1.7
1.6
4,7

-7.7
15.7
-6.7
-4.5
2.6
11.9
-6.4
14.9
0.0
6 .4
8.1
7.5
6.8
0.0
7.9

5.5
4,9
0.0
2.3
16.6
4.6
-6.5
17.4
0.0
2 .1
2.0
9.4
14.0
3.3
9.5

-5.2
15.5
-34.4
0.0
19.3
-8.6
-6.5
2.3

0.0
-2.4
45,6
0.0
13.2
-32.1
-6.5
12.0

5.5
12.6
12.2
-12.9
10.4
-2.3
-6,6
2,3

8.3
9.9
12.1
-13.0
10.3
-6.7
-2.3
16.9

26.6
9,8
-4.4
-15.2
33.5
17.6
-16.8
16.7

10.9
7.2
12.0
-21.3
-6.9
50.3
-13.0
6.8

-8.2
16.6
0.8
0.3
-17.2
17.9
2.9
-0.6

-2.5
12,2
1,0
-5.0
0.9
13.1
-4.3
13.2

0.1
8.6
7,8
-4.3
14.3
-14.3
-6,§
5.5

6.4
12,3
15.3
1.6
3.2
6.2

0.0
8.0
1.8
3.3
10.0
0.0

8.5
7.9
5.4
1.6
0.0
4.6

8.5
-10.8
15.0
8.4
-3.1
7.7

-4.0
23.3
12.9
-1.6
22.7
10.9

12.9
22.9
12.7
3.3
16.8
3.0

5.1
5.6
8.5
10.1
1.2
2.8

5.7
8.3
7.5
7.5
1.6
7 .4

5.0
9.4
7.5
2.2
4.4
3.6

-12.1
9.3
18.5
3.9
-10,6
-17.4
22 .4
1.3
-7.9
-4.2
6.7
0.0
-18,0
11.7
18,1
-2. 1
2.1
-13.1
-8.2

-2.8
-2.9
4.3
10.7
-8.4
-16.5
14.2
5.2
12.5
4.4
-5.3
-3.3
11.1
-3.6

0.0
3,0
13.4
-1.3
-4.9
-19,1
2.7
11.9
17 .8
12.6
-10.3
-2.2
-4.6
10.3

-4,2
4.5
13.2
-1.3
-6.1
5.8
9.6
7.7
33.2
-17.7
-20.7
-2.2
-6.8
8.9

-4.3
6.0
4.2
5.2
6.5
0.0
4.0
7.7
4.6
13.9
-22.0
-4.4
-3.5
14,2

-4.3
3,0
-2,7
5.1
0.0
4.3
2.6
10,3
9.4
-3.2
-9.8
5.7
-13.3
15.4

1.5
-4.3
8.5
5.1
0,0
5.8
5.3
8.9
2.3
-1.1
-2.3
5.7
-10.2
11.2

-5.7
-4.3
17.6
-J.2

-2.9
12.4
11.3
3.8

-23.4
1.5
20.3
14,6

-10.0
10.6
20.0
10.3

25.2
12.1
15.2
-12.6

-5.0
3.1
12.1
4.4

-4.3
4.5
4.9
3.0

18.2
1 .3
3.7

7.1
4.0
10.1

7,1
-3.8
6.1

0.0
19.7
4.9

8.5
15.0
6.1

-17.7
13.1
6.1

3.4
5.4
8.6

-2.1
9.6
-1.1
-8.1
-2.3

-4.2
8.3
-8.5
-8.2
26.2

5.4
-1.0
18.5

5.3
-1.0
0.0

3.2
16.4
1.0

0.0
-7.8
1.0

-3.1
-2.0
3.0

-3.1
0.0
9.3

8.6
3,1
6.0

1 .0
9,5
1.0
0.0

3,3
18.4
-12,6
-10.5
16.1
-1.1
0,0
-3.9
19.0
13,8

-1.1
11.8
-12,7
-1.2
9.5
8.8
6.4
4.1
-2,8
-0.9

-2.1
4.5
-13.9
-2.4
17.0
7.6
8.5
13,9
15.4
7.6

4.3
-3.0
-1 .8
-3.8
6.1
12.2
2.9
0.0
1.8
2.2

-2 .3
-17.5
-0,3
-7.9
12.8
6.7
0.0
2.2
1.7
4.9

-2.6
12.1
0,8
-5 .2
0.0
12.8

-2.6
11.9
-15.1
-0.8
12.6
2.3

0,0
5.8
-1.5
0.8
16,3
-13.4

0.0

4.5

13.1

15.0

17.9

-8.6

-4.8

1.5

15,3
8.7

2.3
-4,5
14,2
-15.4

-8.8
11.3
-14.8

-13.7
1 .5
.3
- .8
1 .7

-16.6
11. 1
18.1
-10.9
13.4

-17.4
15.4
28,3
-11.6
4.5

1.1
-18,2
14.8
6.1
-1 .7

-4.4
1.0
10.8
-5.1
11.4

-4.2
13.9
-14.5
-6.1
8.7

-15.9
14.7
16.2
-10.4
9,9

,2
.9

5.6
10.6

3.4
15.6
10.8

4.8
8.1
9.5

5.7
7 .9
9.2

4,4
6,0
7.8

.9
.7
-0.9
-12.5
8.1
17.1
9.5
-12.1
4.7
6.2
7.0
8.0
-0.7
12.8
-11,3
-6,7
17.1
3.9
2.4
3.1
5.3
4.1
4.1

11.6
7.1
-1.9
-4.8
8.0
18.4
3.4
-21.4
5.1
9.8
5.7
9.1
0.0
11.4
-13,1
-4.8
14.1
5.0
4.9
4,4
10.1
6.7
6.7

10.4
5,0
-7.3
7.2
13.7
12.8
-4.8
-25.0
9.9
11,7
0.8
3,7
1,1
5,3
-14.9
2,5
14.8
4.7

0.7
5.1
5.2
-4.2
4.8
11.2
5,6
-8.3
-16.9
12.1
7.1
10,3
1.9
-5.3
-1.3
-4.2
4.2
11.7
3,6
2,5
4.2
4.0
4.0

1 .4
7.0
4.7
-3.2
3.5
6.0
3.0
0,1
0.6
4.9
8.8
12.8
0.5
-15.7
-0,4
-7.3
12.5
6.2
0.2
0,2
2.3
4.7

4.0
4.3
4.7
-5.5
0.7
12. 1
3.7
-4.5
10.1
2.3
7.2
6.4
-1.9
5.3
-1.9
-9.4
10.5
3.7
2.0
2.4
6.6
4.7

4.4
10,7
11.8
3.1
9.3
6.6
-3.4
-3.4
9,9
16.1
2.7
-19.5
6.6
9.2
4.5
6,9
0.1
9,8
-13,1
-3.0
15,3
4.5
4,3
2.6
'j. 5
5,1

920C.
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...

1968. . .
1969...

1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...

1 9 85 ...
1986...
1987...
1988...
1988...

CHANGE IN COMPOSITE

-8.4
16.4
0.8
0.0
-17.3
17.8
2,2
-0.8

-6.8
16.1
3. 1
-2.2
-17.5
17.5

-9.2
18.9
0.8
-7.3
-9.7
17.3

3.2

9.8

1.
9.
10.
8.
2.
6.4
3.5
-5.1
9.9
11.5
9.6
-10.5
-22.3

5.0
5.5
8.3
10.0
1.1
2.6
6.0
-5.1
3.0
11.9
4,3
-8,0
-17,7

8.0
9.7

6.5
8.2

5.7
8.2

11.3
2.2
4.9
7 .4

10.4
3.6
2.8
7.3

5.4
2.9
4.9
9.4

10.2
2.1
5.6
1.3

8.1
-1.1
6.3
6.0
-2.4
1.5
10.2
2.6
-6.5
-10.6.

8.1
0.5
5.8
4.9
-2.9
4.5
10.2
0.8
-1.7
-5.0

1.6
7.3
3.4
-4.3
4,5
4.7
3,0
0,0
3.4

2.2
7,8
5.9
-2.4
1.5
3.2
5.1
2.1
3.3

7.0
3.2
2.9
-0.4
0.4
-7.8
1.7
15.9
3.5
3.1
5.5
4.6

6.0
6.8
4.0
-3.2
-1.8
- .5
.9
1 .0
.8

8.2
20.8
-1.1
-12.4
-2.6
-0,4
.0
.2
.6
.5
.2
.5

9,1
17.9
1.8
-17.8
-2.9
-5.0
11.1
4.4
2.8
2.1
0,7
3.9

8.5
15.1
-3.2
-17.7
-0,4
-7.9
12.8
6.7
0.0
1.7
1.7
4.8
4.8

8.9
5.4
2.9
-11.7
2.2
-9,1
13.6
7.4
-2.1
-3,3
4.4
5.5
5.5

5.5
5.1
5.9
-2.9
-1.9
7.5
3.0
-2.9
9.3
3.1
7.6
6.2
-2.1
-1.1
3.4
-10.6
7.8
6.2
0.7
0,3
6.1
5.8
5,8

4.3
3.6
4.9
-2.4
1 .0
12.4
2.5
-4.5
10.2
3.5
7.5
4.9
-2.5
5.1
-1.5
-8.8
11.1
3.6
2 .1
4. 1
5.4
2.5
2.5

2. 1
4.1
3.4
-11.1
3.0
16.3
5.5
-6.2
10.7
0.4
6.6
8.1
-1.1
12.0
-7.5
-8,9
12.7
1.4
3.2
2.7
8.4
5.7
5.7

1.9

13.1

: .6
1.0
1.0

4.4
4.4

NOTE: Series 920 contains revisions beginning with 1984. The percent changes are shown for the first time since before the overall revision of
the composite index early this year. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month
changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.




1.2
11.6
4,0
-6.4
2.6
9.3

-2.4
1.3
12,5
2.6

15.3
9.0
6.6
= 16.5
12.3
20.4
-10.7
13.5
1.6
5.8
11.8
13.5
3.4
12.1
7.2
-1.7
-2.7
8,1
18.5
4.1

10,4
3,5
7.6
5,0
-2.5
5.2
-1.3
-8.8
11.7
3,6
2 .2
4.2
5.4
2.5

5.2
10.3
5.7
9.2
0.0
11.6
-13.1
-4,7
14.2
5.1
5,0
4,7
10.5
6,8

0.3
8.1
7,0
9.3
= 0.1
-0.9
-4.1
-6.3
11.2
6.9
2.5
2.8
4.9
4.1

•=4,7

7.9
2.9
S.4
8.8
9.2
5.8

4. a

5.2
3.2
-3,6
4.2
12 ,0
3,5

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-10.6
11.7
3. 1
5.4
-19.7
9.0
19.7
-7,5

i!o
1.9

45,4
49.6
52,2
52.3
48,3
52.5
53.3
52.7
56,1
58.2
61.9
67.4
73.1
75.5
79.8
83.8
82.1
82.3
88.9
96.0
94.2
86.3
92.3
98.7
106,7
110,8
107.2
107.3
100.0
101.9
112.2
116 .0
118.7
122.4
128. 2

SPANS

'
1954...
1955...

46,0
51,6
52.9
50.5
50.0
52.5
51.9
54.7
56.7
59.3
63.5
69.8
74.4
76.8
81.5
84.6
80.1
83.4
92.9
97 ,7
91.3
87.9
94.0
101.3
110.2
110.6
107,9
105.1
97.2
106.4
114.2
117.0
119.7
125.2
130.6

0.9
11.1
2.4
-5.9
2 .8
6.8
-=3.9
7.1
3.4
4.8
3.2
?.6
6.0
3.9
5,7
2.8
-4.1
4.7
11,4
3,7
-8,1
0.1
7.2
6.9
9.1
0.2
-1,5
-4,2
-6.0
10,6
6.5
2.5
2.0
4.6
4,6

(OCTOBER 1989)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

19S4.
1955.
195?!
1958.
W9.
I960,
1961,
19&s!
1964,
1965,
1966,
1967.
1968,
1969.
H?0,
1971,
1972,
1973.
1974,
1975,
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.

SO, 2
45.4
52.4
§8.2
61,6
54.8
63,4
64.5
62.2
64.9
68.2
71.1
76,2
82.2
82.4
87.6
93.2
89.3
85.4
87.6
97.7
102.5
88.0
86,9
92,5
98.8
108.3
101.2
104,9
91.9
94.0
105,5
110,8
112.1
113.4

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

45.5
50.8
57.6
61.5
54.8
65.3
63.8
61.3
64.3
67.3
70,6
74.8
81.2
82.7
86.0
92.1
91.3
87.1
86.5
94.9
101.9
88.0
87.2
90.7
96,3
106.1
97.4
105,3
97,1
91,6
105,1
109,7
112.2
111,8
115.0

45.4
SI.9
58.0
62.2
54.4
65.2
64.3
61.1
64.5
68.0
70.3
75.5
82.3
82.2
86.2
92.2
90.9
86.5
86.3
95.7
102.3
87.9
86.7
91.2
97,8
107,2
98.4
104.9
95.2
92.7
105,0
109.9
111.9
112.1
116,4

45.6
52.0
57.7
62.6
55.2
64.2
64.6
61.6
64.8
68.2
70,5
76,0
82.3
82.5
86.7
92.5
89.5
86,4
86.1
97.1
103.5
88.0
86.4
91.3
98,3
107,3
101,2
104.3
93.0
93,6
105,0
110.2
110.9
111.8
116.8

49.6
45.4
52.8
58.0
60.4
55.0
64.0
64.1
62.3
65.0
68.4
71.7
76.8
82.4
82,9
88.0
93,7
88.8
85.4
88.6
97.6
101.2
87,9
87.2
92.8
99.0
109.5
100.5
103.5
91.5
95.2
105.9
111.7
111.2
113.9

47.3
46.0
55.5
58.8
56.6
57.1
65.8
62.3
63.5
65.3
69.0
73.2
79.0
82.6
84.5
90.0
92.9
86.6
86.4
91.3
99.4
94.2
86.7
88.3
93.4
101.5
111.9
1D1.6
101.6
90.4
99.5
107.0
112.0
110.8
114.6

195?.'
19S8.
1959.
I960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1966!
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970,
1971,
1972.
1973,
1974.
1975.
1976,
1977.
1978,
1979,
1980.
1981,
1982.
1983,
1984.
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.

= 11.2
"5.1
9,6
10.9
-17,6
= 8.4
-14.0
-1.8
12,3
1,9

48.8
45,6
53.4
58.2
59.7
35.2
64.7
63.6
62.5
64.9
68,7

47,8
45.4
54.6
58.5
58.5
55.6
65.0
63.0
63.0
65.1
69.0

47.4
45.9
55.8
58.9
56.2
57.0
66.0
62.3
63,4
65.3
68.7

46.7
46.7
56.1
59.0
55.0
58.6
66.4
61.6
64.0
65.6
69.2

46,5
47. C
57,7
59. C
54.2
59.6
66.4
61.C
64.
66.
68.

45,8
49.2
57.2
60,7
53.4
61.5
65.8
61.0
64,2
66,7
69.6

45.6
49.6
57.8
61.8
54.5
64.4
64.1
61.3
64.2
67,0
70.0

76.9
82.4
82.8
87.9
93.6
88.9
85.0
88,7
97.8
101,0
87.9
87,2
92.7
99.4
108,8
100.7
103,5
91.7
95.3
105,7
111.5
110.9
113.9

77,2
82.7
83.5
68.4
94.2
88.2
85,7
89.5
97.4
100,0
87.8
87.5
93.3
98.8
111.4
99.6
102.1
91.0
96.4
106.4
112.9
110.7
114.3

78.1
82,7
84.1
89,2
93.3
87.2
85,9
90.8
98.6
96,9
87.1
87.8
92.7
101.1
113.6
99,4
101.7
90.9
97.9
106.4
111.8
110.7
114.6

79.1
82.4
84.5
90.0
92.7
86.8
86.3
91.1
99.5
94.6
86,9
88.1
93.4
101,1
112.3
102,2
101.4
90.1
99.6
107.2
112.2
110.8
114.5

79.7
82.3
84.9
90.9
92.6
85.9
86.9
92.0
100.1
91.0
86.2
89.0
94.2
102.4
109.7
103.3
101.7
90.1
100.9
107.3
111.9
111.0
114.8

80.
82.
84.
91.
92,
86.
86.
93.
100.
89.
86.
89.
94.
102.
104.
103,
101,
90.4
101. £
107.5
112. C
110, 1
114,5

80.9
82.4
85.9
91.2
92.3
87,7
86 .6
92,9
100.7
88.8
86.3
89.9
95.3
103.7
101,1
103.9
99.7
91.4
103.2
107.9
111.7
110,7
115.1

81.1
82.7
86.0
91.7
91.7
87.9
86.4
94.4
102,1
88.1
86.7
90.3
96.0
105.2
98.7
IDS.7
98.6
91.4
104,3
108.6
111.0
111.7
115.2

-11.3
-2.6
4.7
-9.8
-27,1
6.8
9.9
-3.7
1.9
3.8

-19. 7
8.2
19,9
10,9
-5.8
2.2
16.1
-12.3
3,9

-22.0
-5.1
30.6
6.4
-21.6
9.1
5.7
-10,8
10,0

-9.6
14.0
29.8
8.5
-38.2
34.8
20.1
-12,5
7.9

-16.4
23.0
6.6
2.1
-22.8
39.4
7.5
-12.7
12.0

-5.1
10,2
13.3
24.1
27 .7
73.8
-27.0
6.1
0.0

-=2,6
33.2
-4.1
-5.7
6.8
18.1
-5.5
0.0
1.9

-2,6
29.3
8.7
14,5
-8.4
-1.8
9.8
-3.8
3.8

5.4
2.3
-6.0
8.0
19.1
-16.9
5,7

-14.1
0.2
11,4
4.0
-16.8
0,2
4.0

-16.0
10.6
22.3
5.7
-27.5
27.8
11.1

5,7

6.0

10.0

10.8
10.1

-5.0
11.8

3,5
8.2

3.0
10.1

0.0
0.0

-7.0
2.8

4.5
7,2
-17.0
-1.4

2.0
5.1
8.1
7.6
-5.6

3.1
6.5
13.6
0.6
6.9
11. 8
-6.5
-10.0

10.6
4.8
-1,4
-6,7

19.0
15,0
1.4
-4.1
1.3

16.9
1.4
-12.8
-0,9
5.2

11.8
11.6
-31.2
-7.0
7.1

1.1
40.0
-6,7
-24.5
12.3
0.0
3.3

2.3
16.8
-6.0
-7.6
-8.2
12.7
5.5

16.1
-3.7
17.0
-1.5
-3,8
20,0
3,5

11,3
8.4
-12.1
2.4
6.0
7.9
11.5
-34.1
10.®
-11,6
6.J
14,2
5.0

-0.1
9.4

1.1
1.8

2.7
1.5

1.6
3.0
4.5
1.4

-7.5
10.2
-1.4
15.3

4.0
16.4
-2.7
-2.5

-7.5
2.8
-2.7
21.2

-5.1
-10.4

-13.6
1.4

-13.7
0.0

-9.1
5.7

-1.4
7.1

16.6
-24,5
13.7
3.6
0.0

4.8
-41.5
2.3
-6.9
4.1

11.0
-35.8
4.7
-15.4
14.1

18.8
-2S.O
22,9
-12.5
0.0

10.8
-14.7
-4,4
-16,8
2.7

1,1
-3.2
2.2
3.2

4.6

8,1

12.9

13.2
13,0
-4.S
-21.1
15.4
-1.1
2.2

-2.
-3.

-1.1
6.5

11.4
1.0

1.1
-2.1

3.3
15.6

-3.2
4.2

5.1
4,8
4.5
10.6
7.0
8.0

10.4
14.9
O.O
9,0
11.4
-10.9

12.2
16,5
-4.3
5.9
11.3
-7.4

-3,2
9.5
6.0
5.8
12.7
-1.3

-13.0
23.0
7.7
= 11.0
0.0
7.2
17.0

-5.5
16.2
1.2
-16,2
-1.4
4,2

10.3
11.4
-4,8
-11.3
-1.4
4.2

2.8
18.9
15.8
-31.5
-9.2
4.2

5.7
4.0
11.5
-25,0
-2.7
4.2

8.7
12,5
7.5
-37.2
-9.2
13.0

7.5
5.7

-7,0
32,8
-12.3
-15.1
-8.8
14.8
8.2
16,2
-2.1
4.3

31.8
26.4
-2.4
-4.6
= 1.3

0.0
-12.9
39.6
-3.5
-10.1

0.0
-11,1
0.0
3.2

9.4
4.4
1.1
-1.0

2 . ,1

6.5

-5.1
-8.0

9 3 0 0 , GlIANQE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 7 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T )
1954.
1955.
1956,
1957,
1958.
19S9.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1HS,
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979,
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988,

-S.4
-0.9
5.5
-2.1
-13.4
5.2
-7.7
0,0
8.1
3,8
2 .4
9.4
7.6
0.S
3.0
8.1
6.2
= 8.5
-6.8
11.6
9.1
=•5.0
0.0
2.3
6.7
6.7
6.1
9.7
-5.2
-13,9
11.7
2.7
6.0
-3.5
6.6

-14,2
0.0
11.2
3.S
-17.3

e.e

3,2
= 6,0
6.0
0.6
3.0
10.0
6.5
2,0
4.9
8.1
7.6
-5.7
-3.2
16,8
-12.9
-0.9

9,1
2,1
16.2
-6.2
-8.2
= 8.3
12.5
5.4
10,2
-0.7
9.2

-16.1
10.0
21.8
5.6
-28,0
27.0
10.9
-12,0

-10.4
14.9
24.7
3.5
-26.3
32.0
8.9
-12.1

1 .2

4.4

6,3

8.9

8.8

7,5

9.2
11.9
O.O
8,5
9.9
-3,8
= 9.1
6,3
11.3

6.2

3.3

3,3

5.0

7.9

0.5
6.9
11.8
-6.6
-10.0
5.7
11.7

1.0

0.0

= 0.5

-5,5
-2.7
4.3
10.5

5.4
=1.7
4.2
1.4
8.1

3.6
-3.8
9.6
-2.3
10.9

-25.9
-3.6

-22.4
-2.7

9.4
6.9
-27 .3
17.5
-2,3
-2.2
16.9
4,2
0.7
0.4
-0,3

8.4
10.7
-34.3
6.8
-6.5
5.9
15.3
2.6
-1.8
-0.4
2.1

-17.8
0,0
17.9
2.1
-18,7
6.0
10.5
-9.0
5.2
1.3
4.8
9,9
10.4
2.
8.
7.
0.
=9.
2.
15.

= 17.3
5.4
26.6
8.6
-23.0
14,5
13.8
-11.9

-20.

-23,0
= 4.5

-31.4
-7.1

3.1
7,J>
13.5
6.1
-7.9
-6.8
19.3
5.8
2.5
-0.4
2.1

3.9
15.4
-6.0
15.7
-1.6

0.
9.
21.
-6.
-11.7
-4.3
17.7
3.5
3.7
-4.9
4.3

20.0
3.4
-3.5
1.1
1.8




46.0
48.6
57.6
60. S
§4.0
61.8
65.4
61.1
64,2
66.6
69.5
73,9
80.9
82.7
85.6
91.3
92.0
87,4
86.6
93.5
101.1
88,9
86.4
89.8
95.4
103.9
101.6
104.4
99,8
91,1
103.1
108.0
111.6
111,1
114.9

45.S
SI.6
57.8
62.1
§4.8
&4.9
64.2
61.3
64.5
67.8
70.5
75.4
81.9
82.5
86,3
92.3
90.6
86.7
86.3
93.9
102.6
88.0
86.8
91.1
97.5
106.9
99.0
164.8
95.1
92.6
10S.©
109.9
111,7
111,9
116.1

-8.9
30.4
14,5
21.6
-1.6
47,3
-12.4
1.3
8.8
5.1
7.3
-0,3
3.5
3.6
-3.7
9.B

A V E R A G E FOR

0.1
21.6
-0.5
§.6
5.8
-0.2
3.3
2.2
3.8
7.4
3.1
10,0
6.3
-0.8
3.3
3.6
-9.1
-6.6
12.0
5.8
-0.5
-1.2
4.5
10.2
g.4
12.8
-5,2
-20.8
10,1
2,8
6,1
0.1
0.4
5.9

47.1
47.9
55.9
S9.9
56.5
59.7
64.9
62.2
63.6
66.2
69.3
73.6
79.6
82.6
84.8
90.4
92.3
87.4
86,2
92.3

ieo.2

93,1
87.6
89.1
94,8
102,8
1 OS , 5
102,8
100,0
91,4
100,7
10?, 7
111.7
111.3
114,9

= 9,7
15.7
11.9
9,2
= 10,0
18,8
1.5
-4.4
5.3
5.3
3,6
7.9
8.5
0.4
5.2
6.8
= 2.9
= 6*.l
13.0
6.8
-14.2
-1.7
5.7
7.9
9.6
= 2.1
3.9
-10.4
1.0
J2.4
5.0
1.0
1.0

4.6

FRRI00

-12.8
32.0

-9.1
27.3

-8.3
36.5

-3.4
23.8

0.0
20,8

-0.9
13.2

-12.5
-0.3

-14.6
10.1

-10,1
31.9

12,8
-18.5
35.5
-1.2
-8.1

20.4
-3.6
45.9
-13.2
-1.9

16,1
4.5
44.1
-14,8
2,0

10.3
7.7
26.3
-8.8
0.7

5.3
5.2
-1.2
3.2
2.0

0.7
O.O
-11.1
4.5
6.0

1.2
-16.5
3.7
2.0
-5.0

5.9
-25,8
24.5
11.2
-12.0

17.1
-5.9
41.8
-9 .7
-2.7

8.0

7.4

5.5

-1.0

7.8
7.1
-1.0

10.1
6.1
-1.0

7.7
5.0
-1.4

1.9
3.4
9.8
8.2
1.7

4.0
1.2
6.2
13.0
0.5

8.4
7.0
5.4
6.5
-0.5

4.9
-3.0
2.3
-1.4
8.0

4,5
-5.9
-5.4
-1.4
12.6

3.5
-9.3
-6.7
-1 .4
11.9

4.9
-8,5
-7,6
5.2
12.3

7.9
4.7
-7.8
-2.5
14.6

10.0
-5.3
-7.3
5.4
11.2

4.6
=2.8
5.4
-0.8
9.0

-12.2
2.3

= 8.2
4.2

-4.0
1.9

-0.5
-1.4

0.0
-1.4

-12.7
-1.6

-26.8
-5.1

-14.3
1.3

-1.3
-0,3

7.9
11,4
-34.5
9.6
-11.6
5.9
14,2
4.9
-3.2
2.5
1.4

6.5
13.5
-25.7
7.1
-14.9
5.4
13.6
8.4
0,7
3,7
1.8

10.9
14.2
-10.3
3.9
-16.9
5.8
7.2
7,6
0,7
5.2
4.6

9.9
8.2
10.5
-5.2
-20.9
10.0
2.7
6.0
-0.4
0.4
5.7

10.8
8.6
16.5
-1.3
-19.8
10,9
1.5
4.1
-0.4
5,8
11,2

5.6
6.1
14.5
-1.1
-8.4
-8.8
14.0
3.9
6.6
-3.0
6.7

5.5
9,8
-6.6
13.1
-3.9
-4.3
18.7
4.5
-0.1
0.4
1.2

7.6
11.9
-31.5
7.8
-11.0
5.7
14.4
5.3
-1.4
1.9
1.8

10. §
10.3
5.6
= 0.9
-19.2
8.9
3.8
5.9
0.©
3.8
7.2

NOTE: Series 930 contains revisions beginning with 1984. The percent changes are shown for the first time since before the overall revision of
the composite Index early this year. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month
changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.

100

Annual

A V E R A G E FOB P E R I O D

12.1
4.6
-7.0
15.1

14.4
11.6
3,0
6,0
4.2
5,3

= 14*.
= 2.
17,
2.
7.
-12.
5.

-16.6
73.1
-9.9
40.6
-16.3
45.7
-10.3
0.0
1.9

1.6
14.4
1.5
0.0

10.7
3,2
-1.4
-1,4
13,2
9.S

1K8
O.O
7.1
-13.3
5.3
5,9
6.7
13.8
18.6

-5.0
8.0
40.1
0.0
-16.1
22.5
0.0
-11.1
1.9

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

49,7
45.3
52.6
57.7
60.0
55,1
63.9
64.3
62,3
65.1
68.4

9 3 0 6 , C H A N G E IS C O M P O S I T E I N D E X OP 7 L A G G I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 1-M0NTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1954.
1955,

III Q

Oct.

9 3 0 . COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 7 LAGGING I N D I C A T O R S
(1982-100)

-1.4
19,3
3.1
5.4
4.3
4.?
2.9
3.2
7,0
3,3
8.5
6.1
-1.1
4.1
4.3
-7.9
-6.6
0.8
12.3

-9.6
15,2
11.6
7.4
18.'?
0.8
-4.2
5.1
3.3
3,7
7 ,5
8.4
0. 1
5.5
6.7
= 4.1
0.7
11.8
6.2
-13.8
= 1.4
5.8
7.3
9.5
= 4.5
4.7
-10.6
0.4
12.7
4.9
1.3
0.8
4.2
{OCTOBER 1989)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

92.4
104.9
98.9
92.5
79,8
93.6
85.3
79.0
88.8
87.7
88.2
90.5
92.7
90.7
94.3
93.7
89.0
91.5
100.8
107.3
97.8
85.0
103.3
109.7
110.1
111.6
101.6
107.4
99,5
106.4
115.6
109.0
105.7
109.1
110.6

92.8
106.1
97.4
91.4
79.2
94.7
83.8
80.3
89.1
88.3
87.9
91.3
93.5
90.3
93.9
94.0
88.4
92.4
101.1
106.3
97.7
84.4
103.6
110.4
110.9
113.4
98.3
108.4
100.5
108.1
114.8
108.7
104.3
109.3
110.8

June

Apr.

May

94.4
107.9
96.0
89.9
79.7
95.7
83.4
81.6
88.9
88.6
88.6
90.9
92.6
90.4
93.6
93.3
89.0
93.8
101.9
104.6
96,0
87.5
105.3
110.7
114.3
109.0
94.5
108.5
100.3
109.0
113.4
109.0
106.6
109.4
110.7

94.5
108.1
93.4
89.0
83.1
94.2
81.7
83.5
88.3
88.8
89.5
90.6
91.9
90.8
93.7
92.7
89.2
94.7
101.7
104.7
95.7
89.6
105,9
111.0
113,9
110.2
93.7
105.1
100.3
111.2
111.8
108.2
105.5
109.4
111.1

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

97,8
102 .2
90.7
86.5
90.8
84.2
80.5
87.4
88.0
87.6
89.9
91.8
91.2
92.0
93 .4
92.8
68.9
93.3
103.2
103.4
93.8
97.6
107.4
110.8
113.3
106 .8
103.8
104,2
99.2
111.7
109.6
107.7
106. 1
111,1
112.1

98.7
102 ,4
90.7
84.0
89.7
80.3
82.2
87.1
87.9
87.8
90.0
92,0
91.1
91.7
93.6
92.5
89.3
94.0
104.4
102.1
92.2
99.0
107.3
111.2
113.0
104.9
107 ,0
101.7
99.6
113.9
108.8
107 .1
107 .6
110.2
112.0

99.6
100.8
91.8
83.4
90.0
78.7
82.4
88.3
88.0
88.0
88.4
92,4
91 .6
91.4
94.2
92.4
87.7
94.9
105.9
102.7
92.0
99.7
106.3
111.2
113.7
104.3
110,0
100.9
100.2
115.1
107.9
106.0
106.1
111.7

101.8
99.4
90.9
81.4
92.8
79.9
80.6
89.7
88.2
86.8
90.3
92.5
90.3
93.6
94.8
91.5
87.3
96.4
107.8
102.7
89.4
99.8
108.5
111.1
112.6
103.2
109.9
100.2
102.1
114.6
108.8
106.4
106.7
111.2

Dec.

IQ

( 1982 = 100)

1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964, ,.
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971, ,.
1972...
1973..,
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984. . ,
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...

91.4
104.0
99.2
90.9
79.4
93.2
86.3
79.1
87.9
87.2
87.5
91.0
93.0
91.2
94,1
93.6
89.6
91.3
100.0
107.8
98.6
85.1
102.0
109.7
109,3
111.8
102.5
107.2
97,3
106.5
116.1
108.7
106.4
106.4
110.4

96.4
106 .6
92,9
89.0
86.0
92.0
80.7
85.6
87.5
88.6
89.0
91,5
92.2
90.6
94,0
92.2
89.0
95,9
100.8
104.1
95,1
93.5
107.0
110.8
113,8
108.5
95.1
104.5
98.8
112.5
111.5
107 ,8
105,6
109.5
111.7

Q

102.2
99.8
92.2
79.2
90.9
84.0
79.3
89.4
87,3
87.4
91.6
92.8
90,5
94.4
94.5
91.2
90.4
97.5
109.3
100.1
85.6
100.3
110.2
111.5
112.8
102.9
107.2 '
99.5
104.3
115.0
109.4
106.8
108.8
112.8

92.2
105.0
98.5
91.6
79.5
93.8
85.1
79.5
88.6
87.7
87.9
90.9
93.1
90.7
94.1
93.8
89,0
91.7
100.6
107 , 1
98.0
84.8
103.0
109.9
110.1
112.3
100.8
107 ,7
99.1
107 ,0
115.5
108.8
105.5

95.1
107.5
94.1
89.3
82.9
94.0
81.9
83.6
88.2
88.7
89.0
91.0
92.2
90,6
93.8
92.7
89.1
94.8
101.5
104.5
95.6
90.2
106.1
110.8
114.0
109.2
94.4
106.0
99.8
110.9
112.2
108.3
105.9

97.6
103.9
89.5
86,5
89.7
84.8
81.0
87.0
87.9
87.9
90,1
92.1
91.2
91.5
93.8
92.7
89.3
94.0
103.1
102.9
93.6
97.2
107.3
111.1
113.2
106.6
103.3
103.5
99.1
112.9
109.8
107.4
106,4

111.2

112.1

IV Q

Annual

101 .2
100.0
91.6
81.3
91.2
80.9
80.8
89.1
87.8
87.4
90.1
92.6
90.8
93.1
94.5
91.7
88.5
96,3
107.7
101.8
89.0
99.9
108.3
111.3
113.0
103.5
109.0
100,2
102 ,2
114.9
108.7
106.4
107.2
111.9
112,5

96.5
104. 1
93.4
87.2
85.8
88.4
82.2
84 ,,8
88,1
87.9
89.3
91.6
91.8
91.5
94.0
92.7
89.0
94.2
103.2
104.1
94.1
93.0
106.2
110.8
112.6
107.9
101.9
104.4
100,0
111.4
111.6
107.7
106,2
110.0
111.6

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

68.2
81.8

72.7
45,5
36.4
18.2
50.0
72.7
63.6
81.8
68.2
63.6
54.5
72.7
36.4
90.9
59.1
36.4
77.3
100.0
81.8

66.6
81.8
27.3
28.8
48.5
78.8
24.3
69.7
57.6
77.3
62.1
62.1
65.1
53.0
54.5
51,5
12.1
74.2
78.8

90.9
62.1
28.8
36.4
78.8
48.5
48.5
86.4
27.3
62,1
65.1
59.1
25.8
68.2
51.5
36.3
36,4
57.6
63.6

13.6
72.7
54.5
54.5
63.6
13.6
81.8
36.4
90.9
90.9
27.3
63.6

9.1
81.8
54.5
77.3
45.5
18.2
77.3
36.4
90,9
68.2
59.1
31.8

18.2
63.6
63.6
63.6
45.5
36.4
54,5
54.5
90.9
59.1
31.8
72.7

40.9
30.3
63.6
45.5
39.4
56.1
50.0
30.3
45.5
81.8
63.6
57,6

24,3
90.9
60.6
60.6
56.1
37.9
33.3
54.6
45.5
92.4
3'4.9
60.6

45.5
40.9

22.7
40.9

31.8
68.2

53.0
54.5

90.9

90.9

90.9

36.4
0.0
100.0
27.3
36.4
90.9
81.6
68.2
90.9
90.9
9.1
90.9
90.9
0.0
63.6
81.8
72.7
31.8
0.0
81.8
63.6
72,7
54.5
31,
100.
9.
72.
81.
27 .
90.
81.
63.
45.

54.5
9.1
100.0
27,3
45.5
86.4
86.4
63.6
90.9
81.8
36.4
72.7
90.9
9.1

27 ,3

90.9
36.4
36 .4

90.9
45.5
40.9
90.9
86.4
90.9
63.6
72.7
36.4
72.7
90,9
0.0

100.0
72.7
36.4
0.0
100.0
54.5
45.5
54.5
81 .8
18.2
81.8
81 .8
36.4
81.8
72.7
36.4
77.3

77.3
63.6
59.1
0.0
81.8
27.3
45.5
63.6
90.9
50.0
72.7
72.7
18.2
59.1

54.5
90.9
31.8
18.2
45.5
81.8
27.3
54.5
54.5
77.3
72.7
72.7
68.2
63.6
36.4
86.4
9.1
72.7
86.4

72.7
90.9

72.7
63.6

90.9
68.2

90.9
63,6

90.9
54.5

86.4
68.2

63.6
36.4

36.4
36.4
81.8
36.4
72.7
72.7
81.8
63.6
50,0
63.6
54.
63.
36.
9.
72.
81.8

31.8
63 .6
72.7
9.1
81.8
45.5
72.7
50.0
63.6
63.6
40.9
63.6
31.8
18.2
77.3
68.2

27.3
54.5
54.5
45,5
90.9
45.5
63.6
72,7
59.1
45,5
45.5
45.5
54.5
9.1
68.2
54.5

40.9
90.9
54.5
54.5
86.4
18.2
72,7
63.6
72.7
18.2
72.7
50.0
31.8
54.5
50.0
54.5

40.9
90.9
36.4
45,5
81.8
18.2
50.0
59.1
45,5
13.6
86.4
59,1
22 .7
45.5
54.5
81.8

27.3
90,9
27.3
59.1
72.7
68.2
45.5
72.7
40.9
22.7
77.3

45.5
81.8
22.7
36.4
100.0
45.5
54.5
81,8
54.5
36.4
100.0

72.7
63.6
40.9
22.7
90.9
45.5
45.5
27.3
81.8
77,3
72 .7
54,5
18.2
54.5

18.2

31.8

59.1

18.2

13.6

54.5
63.6

45.5
81.8

63.6
68.2

72.7
54.5

45.5
9.1
81 .8
36.4
18.2
36.4
72.7
22.7
36.4
72.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
40.9
40.9

18.2
36.4
54.5
54.5
54.5
50.0
59.1
18.2
54.5
81.8
63.6
54.5
54.5
54.5
63.6

59.1
45.5
54.5
45.5
45.5
81.8
18.2
50.0
45.5
90.9
54.5
45.5
54.5
63.6
59.1

27.3
90.9
54.5
59.1
68.2
27,3
9,1
90,9
50.0
100.0
45.5
36.4

36.4
90.9
63.6
59.1
45.5
54.5
27.3
36.4
59.1
86.4

9.1
90.9
63,6
63.6
54.5
31,8
63.6
36,4
27,3
90,9

22.7
86.4
90.9
36.4
45.5
22.7
81.8
18.2
68.2
90.9

4.5
68.2
45.5
63.6
68.2
27,3
90.9
54.5
36.4
59.1

81.8

63.6

45.5

81.8

9.1
72.7
54.5
59.1
72.7
63.6
100.0
0.0
72.7
81 .8
45.5
63.6

59.1
63.6

54.5
36.4

81.8
81.8

72.7
31.8

68.2
54.5

45 .5
45 .5

-

III

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

96.3
107.2
87.2
89.0
88.6
89.8
80.3
86.6
87.8
88.4
90.4
92.5
91.3
90.7
94.5
92.7
89.7
94.8
101.6
103.3
94.8
95.1
107.3
111.2
113.3
108.0
99.2
104.7
98.5
113.2
111.0
107.3
105.5
110.5
112.3

950. DIFFUSION I N D E X OF 11 LEADING INDICATOR C O M P O N E N T S 2
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 1-MONTH S P A N S )
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961. ,,
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965..,
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1930...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984. . .
1985...
1986 . . .
1987,..
1988...

II Q

100.0
45.5
40.9
36.4
72.7
31.8
18.2
81.8
63.6
72.7
63.6
81.8
13.6
54.5

65.1
60.6

74,2
56.1
50.0
31.8
87.9
31.8
47.0
66.7
65.2
59.1
75.7
50.0
25.8
77.3
60,6
36.4
54.5
54.5
71,2
42.4
12.1
75.8
63.6
53.0
62.1
37,9
90.9
24.2
59.1
77.3
42.5
63.6
50.0
62.1
43.9

83.3
51.5
45.5
18.2
68.2
43,9
42.4
75.7
74.2
62.1
63.6
75.7
22,7
68.2
72.7
22.7
62.1
80,3
72.7
42.4
13.6
72.7
57.5
65.1
51.5
22,7
71.2
42.4
90.9
72.7
39,4
56.0
74.2
33.3
50.0

78.8
62.9
37.9
28.8
70.8
50,8
40.6
74.6
56.1
65.1
66.6
61.7
34.8
66.7
59,8
36.7
41.3
66.7
71,6
46.2
22.7
67,4
61.3
56,1
52.3
38.6
61.4
37.9
60.2
81.1
45.1
59.S
59.1
53.4
52.3

74.2
90.9
33.3

84.9
80.3
25.8

93.9
69.7
39.4

90.9
18.2
59.1
90.9
81.8
86.4
63.6
81.8
36.4
68.2
72.7
0.0

56.1
84.8
33.3
89.4
37.9
86,4
83.3
65.1
65.1
45.5
62.1
45.5

97.0
37,9
36.4
97.0
30.3
69.7
75.7
53,0
24,2
78.8
59.1
24.3

100.0
18.2
36.4
90.9
57.6
75.8
83.3
84,8
3.0
90.9
87.9
6.1

90.9
48.5
39.4
13.6
93.9
30.3
48.5
89.4
84.9
80.3
72,7
78.8
36.4
71.2
84.8
3.0

100.0
81.8
36.4
9.1
90.9
63.6
54.5
40.9

100.0
81.8
18.2
18.2
100.0
45.5
72.7
50.0

97.0
90.9
69.7
6.1
53,0
89.4
65.1
71.2

65.1
93.9
36.4
13.6
97.0
74.2
66.6
69.7

86.0
72.3
34,5
11.8
86.7
42,8
3B.6
91.7
52.6
78.0
78.8
70.4
32.2
71.6
73.5
19.7
37.9
84.5
87.5
43.2
8.0

72.7
18.2
100,0
81.8
36.4
77,3
81.8
36.4
50.0

72.7
27.3
90.9
77.3
45.5
63.6
100.0
36.4
36.4

12.1
36.4
50.0
100.0
66.7
56.1
72.7
72.7
54.6

27.3
30.3
54.5
100.0
27.3
72.7
56.0
74,2
78.8

ENTS3
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6-MOSTH S P A M S )
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961 .
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966 .
1967,
1968.
1969.
1970,
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974,
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982 ,
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.

72.7

72.7

77.3

90.9

77.3

86 .4

90.9

54.5
9.1
36.4
90.9
36.4
77.3
63.6
86.4
90.9
63.6
81.8
36.4
59.1
72.7
9.1
100.0
100.0
81.8
0.0
36.4
90.9
63.6
72.7
36,4
9.1
45.5
36.4
100.0
81.8
45.5
77,3
72.7
31.8

18.2
9.1
54.5
81.8
54.5
100.0
22.7
90.9
81.8
63.6
63.6
45 .5
68.2
36.4
18.2
100.0
90.9
63.6
0.0
50.0
90.9
63.6
68.2
18.2
9. 1
36.4
54.5
100.0
72.7
54.5
77.3
63.6
45.5

27.3
9.1
77.3
81.8
9.1
90.9
27.3
81.8
77.3
68.2
50.0
54.5
59.1
27.3
9.1
90.9
81.8
63.6
18.2
72.7
86.4
68.2
72.7
27.3
18.2
27.3
59.1
100.0
45.5
68.2
63.6
81 .8
86 .4

27.3
18.2
90.9
54.5
18.2
90.9
36.4
81.8
72.7
45.5
40.9
63.6
72.7
27 .'3
9,1
68.2
81.8
45.5
22.7
90.9
77.3
72.7
63.6
36.4
9.1
18.2
63.6
100.0
18.2
63.6
54.5
81.8
77.3

36.4
18.2
100.0
36.4
36.4
100.0
22.7
63.6
72.7
50.0
18.2
81.8
45.5
18.2
18.2
63.6
100,0
36.4
9.1
100.0
72.7
63.6
63.6
27.3
27.3
63.6
45.5
100.0
36.4
72.7
54.5
68.2
86.4

13.6
18.2
100,0
22.7
54,5
100.0
31.8
63.6
81.8
63.6
13.6
90.9
59.1
27.3
18.2
63.6
100.0
27.3
9.1
100.0
72.7
63.6
81.8
9.1
45.5
9.1
54.5
100.0
27.3
81.6
59.1
72.7
72 .7

18.2
18.2
100.0
18.2
36.4
100.0
18.2
81.8
72.7
81.8
0.0
90.9
81.8
18.2
27,3
63.6
95.5
36.4
9.1
90.9
59.1
63.6
63.6
27.3
86.4
0.0
54.5
90.9
36.4
81.8
59.1
72.7
59.1

'This series contains revisions beginning with 1984.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1986.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1985.

100.0

63.6
0.0
100.0
9.1
36.4
81.8
72.7
77.3
86.4
81.8
0.0
90.9
90.9
0.0
45.5
81.8
90.9
40.9
0.0
86.4
68.2.
59,1
63.6
18.2
100.0
9.1
54,5
81.8
27.3
81,8
72.7
63.6
63.6

75.7
86.4
36.4
3.0
86.4
63.6
65.1
60.6
25.8
95.5
6.1'
60.6
84.8
30,3
84.8
71.2
66.6
56.1

100.0
78.8
30.3
9.1
97.0
54.!i
5 7 . (J
48.5
21.2
75.7
21,2
90,9
80.3
39.4
74,2
84,8
36.4
54.6

as. 3

70.4
63.6
62.5
24.6
52.7
23.5
64.0
91.3
40.9
72.0
71.2
62.5
61.0
(OCTOBER 1989)

2
3




101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

951. D I F F U S I O N I N D E X OP 4 R O U G H L Y COI C I D E N T I N D I C A T O R

Sept.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

III

100.
100.
50.
12.
100.
100.
0.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
12.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
62.5
100.0
87.5
100.0
62,5
75.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
75.0

75.0
100.0
100,0
0.0
62.5
100.0
25.0
100.0
37,5
75,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
37.5
75.0
0.0
37.5
100.0
87.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100,0

25.0
100.0
66 .7
58,3
8.3
91.7
50.0
66.7
75.0
87.5
75.0
87.5
95.8
70.8
62.5
91.7
29.2
70.8
91.7
70.
45.
12.
91.
91.
79.
66.
62.
62.
45.
66.7
91.7
75.0
58.3
66.7
83.3

50.0
95,8
66.7
37,5
58.3
100.0
37.5
87.5
66.7
91.7
91.7
91.7
83.3
79.2
91.7
70,8
25.0
87.5
83.3
66.7
66,7
66.7
91.7
91.7
91.7
50.0
8.3
66.7
29.2
100,0
83.3
66.7
50.0
70.8
91.7

54.2
83.3
66.7
41.7
91.7
25.0
8.3
83.3
83.3
83.3
91.7
87.5
75.0
70.8
83.3
91.7
54.2
58,3
83.3
75.0
41.7
100.0
91.7
91.7
83.3
54.2
70.8
41.7
4.2
83.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
75,0
100,0
100.0
100.0
0.0
37.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75,0
100.0
0.0
50.0
100,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100,0
50,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100.0

8.3
100.0
70.8
58.3
0.0
100.0
83,3
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
91,7
41.7
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
8.3
75.0
20.8
100.0
100.0
100,0
83.3
100.0
100.0

37.5
100.0
58.3
37,5
70,8
75.0
29.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
91.7
100.0
100.0
33.3
100.0
100.0
75.0
58.3
70.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
58.3
4.2
66.7
8.3
100.0
100.0
100,0
83.3
100.0
100.0

25.0

22.2
69.5
83.3
71.4
11,9
76,2
71.4
30.9
76.2
66.6
61.9
66.6
81.0
50.0
66.7
83.3
42.9

Oct.

Q

IV Q

Annual

COMPONENTS'

I P K H U E N T K1S I KG O V E R 1- MO N T H B f A N S )

1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968,
1969,
1970,
1971.
1972,
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976,
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.

25.0

100,0
62.5
25.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
§0.0
25. 0
6 2 .S
75.0
62.5
87.5
100.0
12. S
75.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
62.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
25. 0
100.0
62.5
0,0
75.0
100.0
25.0
75.0
2S.O
62.5

50.0
100,0
50.0
100,0
0,0
100.0
25.0
50,0
100.0
100.0
87,5
100.0
100.0
37.5
75.0
100.0
37,5
25.0
75.0
100,0
25,0
0.0
100.0
100.0
87,5
75.0
50,0
50.0
87.5
25.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
87.5

0.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
62.5
100.0
100.0
75,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
62.5
12,5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
37.5
75.0
50.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
75.0
100.0

25.0
100. C
100. C
12. S

O.C
100. C
62.5
62.S
100. C
100, C
100. C
100. C

75, e

87.5
75. C
75. C
25. C
100. C

loo, e
50. e

25. t
75. C
100. t
100. (
100. (
O.I
O.C
75. C
2 5 . ()
100. (
75.(
75. (
100. (
50, (
75.0

50.0

100.0
25.0
25.0
75.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
50.0
75,0
100.0
75,0
75.0
62.5
100,0
50.0
25.0
100,0
75.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
07.5
0.0
37.5
62.5
100.0
75.0
75.0
25,0
75,0
100.0

75.0
87.5
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
87.5
25.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
62.5
25.0
87.5
0.0
100,0
100.0
10.0
25.0
87.5
100.0

37.5
100.0
0.0
62.5
100.0
50.0
0.0
75.0
100,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100,0
37.5
50.0
87.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
87.5
12.5
100.0
75.0
37.5
50.0
100.0
75.0

37.5
50.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
12,5
37.5
100.0
62.5
12.5
100.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6-MONTH

im.

1976,
1977.
1978,
1979,
1980.
1981.
1982,
1983,
1984,
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.

0,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100,0
100,0
100.0
100,0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100.0

so.o

100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
25.0
75. 0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0

0.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100.0
7S.O
100.0
100,0
50,0
100.0
100,0
100.0
2S.O
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
0.0
75.0
50,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7S.O
100.0
100.0

25,0
100.0
50,0
50.0
0.0
100,0
50,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
75.0
100.0
100,0
12,5
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
87.5
0.0
75.0
12.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
952.

1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958,
1959.
1960,
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965,
1966.
1967 ,
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975*.

1976,
1978,
1979.
1980,
1981.
1982,
1983,'

1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.

25.0
50.0
75,0
71.4
21.4
50.0
35.7

so.Q

85. 7
57.1
42 .9
78.6
71.4
42.9
50.0
78.6
78,6

14.3
78,6
57,1
28.6
28.6
78.6
71.4
71,4
35.7
64.3
28,6
57. 1
64.3
64,3
78.6
85.7

25.0
41.7
75.0
28,6
42,9
64.3
64.3
28.6
64.3
42.9
57.1
57 ,1
71,4
57,1
64.3
71.4
57.1
50.0
28.6
85.7
50.0
35.' 7
42,9
64.3
71.4
64.3
71.4
42,9
28.6
50.0
92.9
35,7
64,3
35.7
71.4

37. S
100, C
2 5 . ()
62.5
37.5
100. (
50. (
100. (
100. (
100. ()
100. (
100. C
100. C
75. C
100. t>
100. ()
25. (
100. (
100. ()
75. ()
7 5 . C)
12.5
100. (}
100. (}
100. (
100. ()
0 . ()
7 5 . C»
2 5 . ()
100. (
100. (
100, ()
7 5 . ()
100. (
100.0

25.0
100,0
50.0
25.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
75,0
50,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50,0
0.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100.0

102



50,0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
12.5
100.0
100,0
100.0
100,0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
75,0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25,0
12,5
50,0
0.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

75*0

70.8
70,8
87.5
83.3

91.7
91.7
83.3
4.2
83.3
75.0
20.8
100.0
75.0
75.6
75.0
100.0
83.3
79,2
91.7
54.2
37.5
91.7
100.0
7S.O
16.7
87.5
87,5
91.7
100.0
62.5
83.3
0.0
45.8
100.0
79.2
70.8
91.7
75.0
91.7

55.2
92.7
70,8
35.4
60,4
72.9
29,2
84.4
75.0
84.4
83.3
91.7
84,4
75.0
82,3
77.1
36, S
77.1
89.6
71.9
42.7
66,7
90.6
91.7
88.5
§8.3
56. 2
42.7
31.2
87,5
82.3
76.8
67.7
75.0
87.5

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

SPANS)

50,0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
12.5
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0

loo.o

87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0

DIFFUSION I N D E X OF 7 LAGGING INDICATOR C O M P O N E N T S 3
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 1 - M O N T R 8 F A N S )

16.7
41.7
83.
78.
7.
71.
64.
50.
71.
57.
64.
71,
92,
35.
78,
78.
42.

25.0
75,0
100.0
85.7
14.3
85,7
85 .7
21.4
78.6
71,4
35.7
71.4
71.4
50.0
42.9
85.7
35.7

25.0
91.7
66.7
50.0
14.3
71.4
64.3
21.4
78.6
71.4
85.7
57.1
78.6
64.3
78,6
85.7
50.0

33.3
58.3
78,6
78.6
14.3
78.6
50,0
21.4
64.3
57.1
42.9
50.0
78.6
57.1
57 ,1
50,0
8.6

16.7
100,0
42,9
50.0
7.1
92.9
42.9
64.3
57.1
92.9
78.6
64.3
57.1
14.3
64,3
42.9
57.1

25.0
83,3
57,1
78.6
42.9
85.7
42.9
71.4
50,0
64.3
64.3
64.3
57,1
64,3
57,1
64.3
7.1

41.7
100.0
35.7
50.0
35.7
85.7
28.
57.
42.
57.
78.
64,3
50.0
50.0
57.1
64.3
42.9

58.3
83,3
71.4
78.6
35.7
28.6
78.6
50.0
64.3
78.6
42.9
64.3
78.6
28.6
57,1
64.3
21.4

58.3
58.3
42.9
57,1
78.6
28,6
35.7
85.7
50.0
64.3
50.0
71.4
57,1
57.1
64,3
57.1
7.1

50.0
75.0
54,8
33.3
64.3
64.3
33.3
71.4
47,6
52.4
61.9
64.3
SO.O
64.3
69.0
59.5

64.3
71.4
28.6
28.6
42.9
64.3
85.7
57.1
57.1
42.9
28.6

42.
100.0

78.6
64.3

50.0
71.4

2.9
4.3

35.7
42.9

35.7
85.7

42.9
57.1

50.0
57.1

57.1
64.3

35.7
78.6

0.0
50.0

0.0
50.0

0.0
57.1

50,0
92,3
57.1
71.4

85.7
50.0
57.1
100.0

71.4
71.4
50,0
71.4

42.9
50.0
64.3
85.7
71.4
0.0
50.0

14.3
57.1
78.6
71,4
57.1
0,0
64,3

28.6
57.1
64.3
78.6
85.7
28.6
85,7

50.0
64.3
71.4
50.0
57.1
14.3
71,4

28.6
28.6
85 . 7
92.9
64.3
50.0
57,1

57,1
35.7
42 . 9
71.4
50.0
50.0
57.1

57 !l
57.1
42.9
35.7
35.7
57.1

42^9

7K4
92.9
57.1
35.7
35.7
71.4

57.1
85.7
50.0
35.7
71.4
57.1

42.9
64.3
78.6
78.6
85.7
64.3

78.6
50.0
50.0
28.6
57.1
85.7

78.6
64.3
78.6
28.6
28.6
50.0

42!g

28.*6

2K4

64.3
57.1
78.6
42.9
42.9

85.7
42.9
14,3
57,1
42.9

78.6
57.1
57.1
50.0
42.9

85.7
57.1
50.0
42.9
42.9

83.3
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
37.5
8,3
1QO.O
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100,0
95.8
100.0
100,0
83,3
83.3
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
91.7
100.0
100.0

100.0
91.7
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
16.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
100.0
50.0
54,2
100.0
100,0
58.3
0.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
75.0
100,0
0.0
54.2
100.0
83.3
87.5
91.7
100.0
100.0

57.3
97.9
82.3
21.1

6?.?
78.1
34.4
91.7
100.0
100.0

100. e

100.6
95.8
91.7

100,0

85.4
31.2
100,6
100.0
81.2
31.2
§1.1
99.0
97.9
100.0
76.0
49.0
41.7
20.8
100,0
9S.8
96.9
87. S
100.0
100,0

A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D

25.0
58.3
75.0
64.3
35.7
78.6
92,9
21.4
64.3
42.9
57.1
50.0
50,0
50.0
78.6
57.1
42.9

' T h i s series c o n t a i n s revis ons b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1986.
T h i i series eonta ins revisl ens beglnn ina w i t h 1985.
This series contains revisions begTftrtfner w f t h 1984.

2
3

100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
87.5
25.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
37.5
100,0
100.0
0.0
75,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
0.0
25,0
100.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
75.0
100.0

COMPONENTS2

951,
1934.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1939.
1960,
1961.
1962.
1963,
1964,
1965,
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969,
1976.
1971,
1972,
1973.
1974.

87.5
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
50,0
100.0
100.0
75.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
100,0
75.0
37.5
87.5
12.5
0.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
62.5
62.5
75.0

31.0
38.1
57 .2
78,6
64.3
66.6
40.5

57,2
78.6
59.5
0,0
52.4
71,4
69.0
71.4
54.7
80.9

25.0
80,5
59.5
69,1
21.4
85.7
45.3
52.4
57.1
71.4
61.9
59.5
64.3
45.2
59.5
52.4
30.
71.'
38.
64.
59.
28.
54.
69 .
78.
71.
9.
66.

40.5
71.4
52.4
69.1
52,4
66.7

35.7
73.8
47.6
35.7
47 .6
47.6

57.
88.
54.7
40.5
50.0
57.1

52.8
80.5
50.0
61,9
50.0
47.6
47,6
64.3
52.4
66.7
57.2
66.7
61.9
45.2
59.5
61.9
23,8
31.0
50.0
59,5
52.4
45.2
42.9
66 .7
71.4
57.1
38,1
61.9
19,1
66,7
59.5
69.1
45.3
57.1
66.7

31,2
70.1
67.0
64.3
29.2
68,5
57,2
45.2
64.3
63,
58,
63,
67.
47,
62.
66.7
39.3
41.1
45.2
10,2
§4.2
26,2
47,0
66 , 1
74,4
66,1
42.2
62.5
36.3
50.0
73.2
56.0
4?. 6
51,8
§9.5
(OCTOBER 1980)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
952,

1954.
1955.
1956.
1957 .
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.

May

. June

July

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

0.0
50.0
100.0
78.6
0.0
85.7
78.6
21.4
78.6
50.0
42.9
78.6
100,0
57,1
85.7
100.0

8,3
58.3
100.0
64.3
0.0
85.7
78.6
21.4
92.9
64.3
35.7
50.0
85.7
57.1
71.4
100.0

0.0
91.7
100,0
85.7
0.0
100.0
71.4
21.4
85,7
85.7
50.0
78.6
85.7
57,1
100.0
78.6

0.0
83.3
83.3
85.7
0.0
100.0
71.4
21.4
64.3
92.9
50.0
78.6
85.7
42.9
85.7
78.6 .

8.3
100.0
75.0
71.4
14.3
100.0
57.1
21.4
64.3
85.7
57.1
64.3

8.3
91.7
75.0
71.4
28.6
100.0
57.1
28.6
50.0
92.9
64.3
64.3

8.3
91,7
57.1
57.1
28.6
100.0
35.7
50.0
57.1
78.6
64.3
85.7

25.0
100,0
71.4
57.1
28.6
85.7
42.9
64.3
64,3
85.7
78.6
71.4

83.3
71.4
57.1
71.4
57.1
42.9
71.4
50.0
64.3
64.3
71.4

100.0
64.3
42.9
71.4
57,1
35.7
64.3
35,7
64.3
64.3
85.7

44.5
100.0
78.6
14,3
80.9
64.3
23.8
83.4
54.8
47.6
69.1

57.1
78.6
92.9

42.9
57.1
71.4

42.9
71.4
57.1

42.9
85.7
78.6

57.1
57.1
78.6

57.1
78.6
57,1

28.6
28,6
100.0
100.0
28.6
42.9
57.1

14.3
42.9

14.3
71,4

35.7
71.4

42.9
71.4

85.7
0.0
28.6
78.6

57.1
0.0
57.1
71.4

57.1
0.0
64.3
92.9

71.4
0.0
71.4
100.0

57.1
7 1,4
71.4
57.1
14.3
57.1
85.7

57.1
42.9
71.4
50.0
28.6
28.6
78.6

42.9
42.9
100.0
57.1
28.6
42.9
78.6

14.3
64.3
71.4
57.1
14.3
57.1
85.7

0.0
71.4
85.7
42.9
14.3
57.1
85.7

78.6
71.4
78.6
14.3

100.0
57.1
64.3
28.6

85.7
28.6
71.4
28.6

78,6
28.
57,
28.

85.7
28.6
85.7
28.6

71.4
0.0
85,7
28.6

85.7
0.0
71.4
14.3

92.9
57.1
71.4
57.1
78.6

100.0
42.9
85.7
57.1
85.7

85.7
50.0
35.7
57.1
85.7

92.9
64.3
42.9
42.9
42.9

85.
57.
42.9
64.3
57.1

100.0
50.0
28.6
71.4
57.1

92.9
57.1
28.6
57.1
35.7

71.4
57.1
28.6
64.3
78.6

57,1
14.3
57.1
7.1
85.7
85.7
71.4
42.9
71,4
71.4

57.1
28.6
71.4
7.1
85.7
71.4
78.6
28.6
92.9
85.7

D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N — 24
( P E R C E N T RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

35.4
89.6
58.3
45.8
18.8
83.3
66.7
70.8
16.7
58.3
85.4
77.1
72.9
66.7
54.2
66.7
33.3
62.5
87.5
50.0
25.0
18.8
68.8
62.5
45.8
31.2
54.2
66.7
25.0
83.3
91.7
41.7

68.8
81.2
43.8
79.2
8.3
85.4
47.9
54.2
77.1
81.2
72.9
70.8
60.4
8.3
77.1
56.2
52,1
39.6

54.2
93.8
47.9
50.0
31.2
77.1
45.8
66.7
72.9
70.8
43.8
70.8
79.2
43.8
56.2
83.3
39.6
56.2

41.7
83.3
85.4
22.9
27 .1
91.7
41.7
77.1
64.6
77.1
89.6
58.3
62.5
60.4
52.1
37.5
41.7
91.7

79.2
83.3
18.8
35.4
68.8
75.0
37.5
66 .7
54.2
66.7
85.4
72.9
75.0
37.5
83.3
62,5
41.7
58.3

64.6
83.3
25.0
62.5
95.8
54.2
22,9
91.7
41.7 '
58.3
52.1
77.1
58.3
54.2
54.2
68.8
41.7
70.8

56.2
45.8
58.3
50.0
83.3
64,6
35.4
70.8
56.2
60.4
77.1
70.8
68.8
45.8
41 .7
58.3
58.3
58.3

79.2
54.2
29.2
85.4
81.2
54.2
64.6
50.0
54.2
68. &
62.5
75.0
54.2

66.7
47.9
16,7
37.5
66.7
83.3
68.8
56.2
45.8
16,7
66.7
60.4
66.7

56.2
45.8
52..1
58.3
89 .6
87.5
37.5
8.3
58.3
25.0
79.2
66.7
54.2

64.6
70,8
50.0
89.6
62.5
62.5
64.6
20.8
70.8
41,7
77.1
45.8
72.9

79.2
47.9
70.8
41.7
72.9
79.2

31.2
52.1

64.6
54.2

60.4
70.8

50.0
79.2

70.8
60.4

25.0
95.8
79.2
58.3
8.3
100.0
79.2
47,9
79.2
91.7
95.8
83.3
91.7
50.0
87.5
79.2
27,1
62.5
100.0
79.2
25.0
8.3
87.5
91.7
87.5
54.2
41 ,7
87.5
12.5
83.3
95.8
56.2
75.0
.
91.7
83.3

45.8
100.0
62.5
. 56.2
16.7
95.8
87.5
77 . 1
75.0
95.8
100.0
89.6
95.8
41.7
79.2
79,2
29.2
75.0
91.7
70.8
29.2
16.7
79.2
91.7
91.7
54.2
20.8
66.7
16.7
91.7
95.8
62.5
41.7
89 .6
75.0

IV Q

Annual

52.4
52.4
80.9
54.7
23.8
42.9
81.0

36,1
94.4
69.0
52.4
57.1
66.6
40.5
66.7
50.0
71.4
69.1
76.2
47.6
52.4
73.8
71.4
21.4
14.3
73.8
73.8
42.9
19.1
57.1
83.3

16.7
77.8
83.1
69,0
23. g
85.7
57.31
36,3
67,9
73.2
56.0
71.4
76.8
51,2
76 ,,2
81,0
32.8
30.4
58.9
83.9
63.7
15.5
50,6
79,2

71.4
4.8
71.4
16.7
71.4
83.3
61.9
33.4
64.3
61.9

61.9
28.6
64.3
11.9
85.7
66.6
85.7
38.1
92.9
95,2

76,2
32.2
67.2
21,4
52.4
S3.9
63,7
43.5
68.4
73.2

52.4
76.2
92.9

94.5
69.0
66.6
23.8
100.0
50.0
33.3
57.1
85.7
61.9
71.4
76.2
47 .6
69.0
73.8

28.6
85.7
64.3
28.6
28.6
57.1
78.6

23.8
38.1
95.2
95.2
19.1
38,1
64.3

31.0
71.4
85.7
61.9
0.0
64.3
88.1

71.4
28.6
71.4
14.3
85.7
71.4
92.9
28.6
100.0
100.0

57.1
28.6
50.0
14.3
85.7
57.1
85.7
57.1
85.7
100.0

88. 1
66.6
61.9
28.6
19.1
92,9
50.0
64.3
57.1
83.3

83.3
28.6
71.4
28.6
33.4
92.9
57.1
38.1
59.5
52,4

83.3
66,7
68.8
20.8
58.3
95.8
18.8
56.2
66.7
31.2

52.8
86.2
50.0
58.3
19.4
81.9
53.5
63.9
55.6
70.1

61.8
83.3
43,1
40.3
63.9
73.6
34.0
78.5
53.5
67.4

55.5
54.9
60.4
44.4
83.3
47.2
31.9
69,4
63.9
66.0

86.8
75.7
59.7
11.1
72.9
63.9
31.3
75.7
57.0
52.8

83.3
50.0
56.2
58.3
52.1
68.8
83.3
70.8
22.9
8.3
75.0
75.0
68.8
66.7
45.8
62.5
20,8

72,9
70.8
39.6
62,5
68.7
41.7
52.8
77.1
65.3
42.4
21,6
63.9
70.1
61.1
54.9
53.5
55.6

69.4
65.3
50.7
63.2
56.3
41 .7
73.6
62.5
66.7
54.8
57.6
63.2
75.0
76.4
50.0
19.4
63.2

65.3
65.3
61.8
54.9
56.2
45.8
65.3
77.1
63.9
43.6
65.3
66.7
59.0
63.9
45.1
68.1
42.4

80.6
54.2
66.0
66.7
52.8
43.8
78.5
76.4
50,0
15.3
75.7
67.4
70.2
67.4
45.1
66.0
22,2

70.8
75.7
54.2
46.5
52.1
59.0

75.7
61.1
58.3
54.2
63.9
66.0

87.5
51.4
59.7
45.8 '
61.1
66.7

59.0
47.9
58,3
72.2
73.6
72,2

66.0
92.4
50.0
41.7
75,0
74,3
27.1

83.3
91.7
62,5
13.9
98.6
49.3
13.9

96,5
82.0
77,8
3.5
95,8
77.1
29.9
75.7
81.2
88.2
93.1
43.7
86.1
77.8
27.8
47.2
94.4
82.0
33.3
4.2
87,5
81.9
69.4
70,8
56,9
88. 9
12,5
63.2
93.1
38.2
75.0
82,6
81,9
77.1

INDUSTRIES
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

62.5
68.8
54.2
25.0

81.2
91.7
64.6
10.4

95.8
68.8
45,8
2.1

56.2
25.0
56,2
77.1
66.7
62.5
58.3
70.8
52.1
52,1
52.1
43.8
83.3
79.2
45.8
41.7
62.5
66,7
54.2
70.8

47.9
45.8
95.8
25.0
60.4

47.9
29.2
75.0
79.2
66.7

68.8
39.6
58,3
68.8
56.2
54.2

20.8
35.4
81 ,2
58.3
70.8
66.7
66.7
56.2
87.5
70.8
58.3
35.4
54.2
83.3
77.1
50.0
75.0
64.6
66.7
66.7

29.2
60.4
50.0
70,8
70.8
47.9

50.0
79.2
52.1
95.8
66 .7
58.3

79.2
33.3
56.2
75.0
43.8
62.5

75,0
14.6
37.5
91.7
43.8
58.3

79.2
64.6
75.0
68.8
58.3
43.8
79.2
81.2
66.7
33.3
79.2
72.9
75.0
68.8
56.2
54.2
16.7
31.2
60.4
52.1
37.5

79.2
47.9
66.7
72.9
47.9
18.8
72.9
77.1
60.4
4.2
72.9
54.2
66.7
66.7
33.3
81.2
29.2
54.2
58.3
50.0
79.2

70,8
58.3

70.8
83.3

62.5
60.4

50.0
56.3

75.0
75.0

79.2
75.0

58.3
41.7
58.3
75,0
66.7
66.7

64.2
75.3
53.3
38.5
59.9
66.7
37.7
71.9
57.5
64.6
71.0
72.0
63.9
54.5
61,8
58. 5
43.2
67,5
73,3
61.5
39,1
55.0
65.3
68.6
67.2
48.8
51.7
45.8
41.7
73.3
59.0
57.6
54.7
62.7
66.0

INDUSTRIES
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

58.3
100.0
45.8

64.6
93.8
39.6

70.8
95.8
50.0

62.5
87,5
60.4

83.3
100;0
50.0

79.2
87.5
58.3

87.5
87.5
79.2

91.7
91.7
70.8

97,9
79.2
83.3

100.0
75.0
79.2

33.3
91.7
50.0
91.7
58.3
100. 0'
100.0
79.2
81.2
35,4
70.8
83.3
20.8
75.0
91.7
70,8
45.8
33.3
87,5
95.8
87.5
54.2
16,7
58.3
35.4
95.8
87.5
70.8
58.3
75.0
70.8

50.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
81.2
87.5
05.8
87.5
75.0
29.2
83.3
72.9
22.9
60.4
79.2
87.5
50,0
41.7
79.2
87.5
95.8
56.2
20.8
75.0
41 ,7
83.3
70.8
75.0
47.9
75.0
91.7

83.3
79.2
35.4
100.0
68.8
95.8
91,7
87.5
75.0
70.8
75.0
75.0
29.2
62.5
87.5
72.9
50.0
62.5
70.8
91 .7
100.0
66.7
25.0
75.0
20,8
95,8
70,8
75.0
50.0
87.5
87.5

91.7
60.4
20,8
91.7
75.0
89.6
95.8
79.2
66 .7
83.3
70.8
54.2
41.7
75.0
87.5
81,2
50.0
75.0
77 . 1
83.3
87.5
43.8
20.8
47.9
16 .7
100.0
64.6
66.7
58.3
83.3
79.2

95.8
45.8
20.8
100.0
54.2
87.5
83.3
91.7
70.8
68.8
79 .2
75.0
35.4
70.8
75.0
79.2
50,0
75.0
85.4
91.7
75.0
62.5
45.8
41 .7
29.2
95.8
54.2
66.7
47.9
91.7
79.2

100.0
39.6
12.5
100.0
68.8
79.2
79.2
95.8
66.7
87.5
75.0
52.1
43.8
70,8
87.5
77.1
8.3
95.8
77.1
83.3
85 .4
47.9
75.0
27.1
37,5
95.8
54.2
68.8
75.0
91.7
83.3

100.0
62.5
8.3
95.8
75.0
68.8
95.8
87,5
62.5
83.3
79.2
41.7
50.0
83,
85,
54.
0,
91.
75.
79.
70.
45.
87,
16.
27.
89.
45.8
70.8
79.2
95.8
91.7

95.8
70.8
16.7

100.0
83.3
25.0

91.7
77.1
47.9

43.0
98.6
62.5
56.2
19.4
95.8
72.2

75.0
83,3
85 .4
91.7

77.1
85.4
87.5
91.7

75.0
75.0
91,7
95.8

70.8
95.8
98.6
84.0

75.0
91.0
94.4
84.7

83.3
70.8
29,2
47.9
95.8
79.2
39.6
4.2
87.5
75.0
75.0
70.8
62.5
95.8
12.5
56.2
95.8
29.2
79.2
72.9
83,3
91 .7

87,5
79.2
29.2
52.1
95.8
79.2
31 .2
8.3
91.7

87.5
83.3
25.0
41.7
91.7
87.5
29.2
0.0
83.3

42 ,4
79.2
80.6
25.7
70.8
94.5
73.6
33,3
19.4

61.1
76,4
67 .4
31,3
66.0
84.7
80.5
50.0
59.7

66.0
78.5
86.1
91.7
66.7
79.9
77.8
56.3
43.1
75.0
82.6
70.2
19.4
87.5

58.3
66.7
58.3
87.5
8,3
66.7
91.7
33.3
83.3
87.5
79.2
70.8

75.0
75.0
50.0
83.3
16.7
66.7
91.7
52.1
62,5
87,5
83.3
68.8

93,1
88.9
54,2
26.4
70.8
21.5
90.3
93.0
63.2
58.3
85.4
76 .4

87.5
94.4
55.6
22.2
66.0
26.4
93.0
68.7
72.2
52.1
81.9
86.1

84 . 7
77.1
52.1
69.4
28.5
31.3
93,7
51.4
68.8
67.4
93.1
84.7

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1985.




111 Q

77.8
94.4
78.6
0.0
95.2
73.8
21.4
81,0
81 ,0
45.2
69,1
85.7
52.4
85.7
85.7

47.9
50.0
68.8
58,3

•

II Q

A V E RAGE FOR P E R I O D

16.7
41.7
100.0
78.6
14.3
85.7
64,3
21.4
92.9
64.3
35.7
64.3
100.0
42.9
78.6
100.0

9 6 6 . D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N — 24
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6 - M O N T H S P A N S )
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958,
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.

Sept.

41.7
41.7
100.0
78.6
28.6
71,4
50.0
28.6
78.6
50.0
64.3
64.3
92.9
57.1
64.3
78.6
57.1
28.6
42.9
85.7
100.0
28.6
42.9
57.1
85.7
85.7
71.4
42.9
42.9

966.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969,
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977 ,
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983,
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.

Apr.

DIFFUSION INDEX OF 7 LAGGING I N D I C A T O R COMPONENTS'
( P E R C E N T RISING OVER 6-MONTH S P A N S )

72.2
91,2

63.2

28,8
72,2
74,1
35.8
89.2
71.9
86.6
91.8
88.4
68.0
67.4
77.8
Sg.O
36.8
76.6
S6.0
64.4
26.7
63.5
00,4
83.7
82,8
54,7
51.7
44.4
35.6
92.5
62.8
69. S
65.1
85. 6
81.1
(OCTOBER 1989)

103

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year | Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May

(PERCENT RISING
1934.,
1955..
1956,,
195?,,
1958..
1939,,
I960,.
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964.,
1965,,
1966,.
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973,.
1974..
1973.,
1976.,
1977..
1978..
1979,.
1980..
1981..
1982.,
1983.,
1984,.
1983..
1986..
198?.,
1988..

34,6
65,4
30.0
30.8
38, §
50.0
46.2
73.1
34.6
61. §
§0,0
50.0
50.0
34,6
38.5
73.1

46,2
76.9
46.2
34,6
46,2
42.3
65.4
38.5
69.2
53.8
37,7
26.9
69.2
53.8
50.0
30.0
57,?
34.6
76,9
84.6
73.1
38, §
6§,4
69.2
69.2
61,3
30.0
30.8
42.3
61. §
38. §
23,1
61.5
84,6
42.3

46. a

61.5
73.1
92.3
73.1
69.2
61.5
73.1
34.6
76.9
73.1
30,8
34,6
76.9
61. §
38.5
38,5
42.3
34.6
967.

1954...

46.2

1935. .,

§3.8

1957,".!
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962..,
1963.,.
1964...
1963...
1966...
1967...

46 '.2
26,9
69.2
53.8
61.5
30.8
63.4
76,9
73,1
53,8
7.7

1968. . .

38.5

1969,,,
1970,,.
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975..,

76,9
69.2
46.2
84.6
100.0
69.2
19,2

1 9 7 6 , .,
1977 . , ,

65.4
§7.7

1978...

66,7

?3. 1
42 ".3
50.0
46.2
38.5
73,1
42.3
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
73.1
57,7
26,9
57.7
53.8
50.0
73.1
84.6
69,2
§3.8
30.8
73.1
80,8
46,2
76.9
61.3
63.4
38,5
57.7
6§.4
3?.?
34.6
30.8
65.4

DIFFUSION

53.8
69.2
46 '.2
34.6
69,2
53,8
61.5
34.6
69.2
76.9
8Q.8
38.3
19.2
§3 .8
76.9
61.3
46.2
84,6
92,3
76.9
13.4
65.4
50.0
66,7

1980 !.".

5 8,' 3

§0*,0

1981,,,
1982...

38.5
15.4

1983, ,.

80,8

1984,,,
1983.,,
1986...
1987...
1988...

73,1
23,1
46.2
88. §
69.2

38,5
30. ft
61.3
65 .4
23.1
§0,0
96.2
61. §

June

July

Aug.

Sept,

§3 '.8
46.2
26 .9
37.7
42.3
23.1
57.7
80.8
61.3

69.2
73,1
26,9
§0.0
73.1

30,8
76.9
46.2
38.5
92.3

42,3
§3.8
73.1
42.3
76.9

80.8
69,2
73.1
26.9
34,6

53.8
38.5
61.5
34,6
69.2

§0.0
84,6
6§.4
38.5
88.5

50*,0

42 ! 3
§?.?
53.8
46.2
26,9
37,7
23.1
34,6
26 .9
§0.0
46,2
38. §
3?, 7
73,1
34.6
30.8
65.4
34,6
61.5
42.3
15.4
26,9
34,6
46,2
50.0
38.5
61.5
88. S
65.4

S?!?
42.3
30,8
61.5
26.9
46.2
34.6
57.7
42.3
69.2
30.8
46.2
§3.8
73.1
46.2
46.2
69,2
15.4
80.8
53.8
0,0
38.5
23.1
46,2
42,3
23.1
65.4
§? .7
63.4

46 ,2
53.8
30.8
34.6
61.3
38.5
34,6
26.9
30. 8
73.1
30.8
46.2
61.5
69.2
38.5
57.7
73.1
34.6
65.4
46.2
53.8
61.3
61.3
57.7
34.6
38.5
50.0
73.1
42.3

46.2
76,9
46,2
42.3
73.1
50.0
19,2
30.8
65.4
69.2
34.6
61.5
69,2
61.5
34,6
53.8
34.6
50.0
69.2
30.8
76.9
61.5
§3.8
73,1
46.2
46.2
50,0
76.9
46.2

34.6
§3.8
50.0
46.2
65.4
§3,8
7.7
42.3
65.4
5-0,0
30,8
§3,8
57.7
34.6
50.0
37.7
34.6
§0.0
76.9
33.8
57,?
42,3
61. §
57.7
46.2
46.2
6§.4
61.5
38.5

23.1
42.3
57.7
73, 1
88.3
61. §
26.9
53.8
76.9
46.2
34.6
§0,0
61.5
42.3
26.9
34,6
50.0
§0.0
88.5
6 2 .§
65.4
38.5
46.2
69.2
30,8
42.3
73.1
53.8
42.3

46.2
26.9
76,9
65.4
69,2
42.3
57.7
57.7
76.9
63.4
42.3
53.8
53.8
73.1
23.1
§3.8
61.5
37.5
80.8
61. §
§3.8
26.9
30.8
76.9
§7.7
23.1
61.5
46,2
69.2

61.5
69.2

57.7
76.9

61.5
73,1

53.8
76,9,

61.5
84.6

30.8
65.4
§3.8
30.8
§3.8
15.4
61.5
69.2
42.3
38. §
11.5

23.1
SO.O
57.7
38,5
69.2
11.5
65.4
76.9
50.6
26.9
19,2

23,1
69.2
76.9
46,2
69.2
19.2
33.8
80.8
11.5
11.5

15.4
84.6
61.5
34.6
50.0
30.8
51.8
t.4.6
57 ,7
11.5
34.6

15.4
76.9
61. §
23.1
53.8
38.5
53.8
76.9
57.7
11.5
30.8

76,9
30.8
46,2
92.3
92,3
61,3
50.0
69.2
50.0
69,2

26.9
61,5
84.6
80,8
46.2
42.3
73.1
46.2
80,8

34.6
69.2
80.8
80.8
46.2
57.7
65.4
46.2
84.6

23.1
53.8
69.2
80.8
38.5
34.6
57.7
45.8
88.5

46.2
46.2
19.2
96.2
30.8
38.5
50.0
96.2
61.5

46.2
53.8
19.2
88.5
30.8
46.2
30,0
80,8
61.5

46.2
61.5
26.9
88.5
23.1
38,5
30.0
88.5
5?.?

50*,0

46 .2
26.9
80.8
34.6
23.1
42,3
?3,1
61,5

IQ

36.0

85.3
74.1
71,4
76.4
70.0
78.2
80.5
80.9
89,3
104.5
101.6
102.4
119.3
142.3

1968, .

130.1

1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1973,,
1976..
1977..
1978.,
1979!!

146.0
131.3
111.8
104,1
163.1
99.6
100.9
99,9
98,8
98,4
103!9

1980. .

112.1

1981..
1982.,

117. S
124.3

1983. .

13? ,8

1984..
1985..
1986..
1987..,
1988...

148.8
163.6
178.9
187.3
190,6

84,7
74.1
70.7
76.8
70.S
77.5
86.9
80.3
91.1
103.7
100.7
103.3
121,1
144.1
151.8
145.0
129.2
109.1
106.0
103.6
99.7
98.3
100.5
99.3
93,4
104!5
113.6
116.9
128,5
139.2
150,6
165.1
178.0
188.9
191.0

NOTE: Th«se serltjs c o n t d i n n

104



83.6
73.7
69.3
76.7
71.9
77.8
81.3
80.2
92,3
103.1
100.4
10S.4
122 .2
145.6
148,9
145.3
126.3
108.2
105.9
162.7
99.4
97.9
101 .2
98,8
103!fi

113.6
117.1
129.3
140.4
151.1
167.2
178.6
188,6
169.9

82,1
73.6
69.7
76.9
73.1
78.3
80.8
80.4
93.1

80.9
73.6
69.9
73,7
73.9
7S.9
81.7
80.4
93.8

79.7
72.9
69.9
76,2
76.0
79.1
79.7
80.4
94.7

100.2
106.7
124.7
147. 1
143.9
144.3
123.5
108.3
106.1
102.2
99.2
98,3
100.2
101.6

98.5
109.0
127 ,0
148. 1
147.9
144.1
120.8
109.6
105.3
101.4
100.1
98.7
100.2
102.1

97,9
110.3
128,9
147.8
148.7
142.0
118.7
107.9
103.0
101. 9
99.3
99.4
99.3
102.6

102!6
113 '.3
116.1
131,6
141.6
135.0
168.2
179,8
189.2
187.9

103!l
115.6
116.6
133,5
142.7
154,9
169.6
180.2
189.3
183.5

103!0

H6l2
117.1
133.9
143.6
155.8
171.6
180.7
188.6
184.6

79.4
72.8
69.9
75.3
?6 , 1
79.5
81.6
80,9
96,5

Q

IV Q

Annual

69.2
84.6
53.8
23.1
76.9
61. §

51.3
61,5
48.7
37.2
41,1

62.8
§9.6
30.8
46.2
57.?

51.3
66.6
64. 1
35.9
67.9

52.5
&4.1
39.0
41.0
62.8

54,5
62.8
30,6
40,1
S7.4

51 '.3
64.1
50.0
53.8
51.3
§0.0
§9.0
38.4
48.7
59.0
51.3
56.4
78.2
82.0
66.7
46.2
66.7
74.4
50.0
71,8
61.5
42.3
38. §
65.4
§3.1
39.8
44.9
52.6
47.4

5o!e
56.4
41.0
52.6
41.0
62.8
35.9
42.3
34.6
66.7
42.3
53,9
60,2
70.5
4?.4
44.9
66.7
28.2
64.1
55.1
9.0
44.9
29.5
52.6
47.4
46.2
60.2
69.2
62.8

42*. 3
61.5
42,3
41.0
66.7
47.4
20.5
39.?
53.9
64,1
32.1
§3.8
62.8
§5.1
41,0
56.4
47.4
44.9
70.5
43.6
62,8
55,1
§8.9
62.8
42.3
43. &
35.1
70.3
42.3

32*. 1
43.6
§6.4
66 .?
69.2
§5.1
42.3
57.?
69.2
§9.0
39 .7
52.5
64.1
62.8
24.4
48.7
§9.0
48.4
70.5
67.0
55.1
37.2
41.1
62.8
33.9
41.0
66,?
SO.O
62.8

43!$
§6,4
4? ,4
S3.§
57.0
53.8
39,4
44,5
§1.6
62.2
41.4
54. 2
66 .3
67.6
44,9
49.0
59.9
49,0
63,8
59.4
4?. I
44.9
42.0
60.9
45.2
42.6
§6.?
60.6
§3.8

61. §
69.2

60.2
73.1
50.0
25.7
61.5
62.8
38.5
64.1
15.4
60.2
75.6
47.4
25.6
14,1

61.5
82.0
§5,1
18.0
79.§
61.3
29.5
57.7
34.6
§5.1
74.3

75.6
23.1
31.3
64.1
85.9
28,2
42.3
65.4
38.9
89.8
63.9
42.3
42.3
21.8
80.8
18.6
41.1
62.8
84,6
59.0

©
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D

61.5
84.6

61.5
73.1
57 . 7
23.1
73.1
46.2
46.2
§3.8
50.0
69.2
76.9
57.7
3.8
38.5

19.2
69.2
46.2
53.8
38.5
6§.4
80.8
80.8
50.0
3.8
42,3

§3.8
65.4
50.0
46.2
35.9
66.6
§1.3
58,9
32.1
67.9
71.8
71.8
42.3
14.1

69.2
46.2
84.6
92.3
76.9
19.2
65.4
69.2
75.0
92.3
58.3
65.4
15.4
65.4
73.1
34.6
§3.8
76,9
69.2
61,5

76.9
55.1
46.2
87.2
94.9
69.2
17,9
70,5
52.6
63,9
93.6
54.0
41.1
24.4
66.7
&0.3
23.1
51.3
88.5
64.1

79.5
30,8
39.0
85.9
84.6
§1.3
50.0
69.2
47.5
78.2
85 .?
4 7 . ,§
48.7
21,8
88.
32,
35.
47.
83.
61.

84. §
74.0
70.5
76,6
70.8
77 .8
80.9
80.5
91.0
103.8
100.9
103.8
120.9
144.1
150.3
145.5
128.9
109.7
105.3
103.1
99.6
99.0
100. §
99,0
98.1
104.0
113.1
117,2
127 ,4
139.1
150.2
165.3
178.5
188.3
190.5

80.9
73.4
69.8
76.3
74.3
78.8
80.7
80.4
93.9
103.
98.
108.
126.
14?.
14?.
143.5
121,0
108.6
105.5
101.8
99.5
98.8
99.9
102.1
101.3
102.9
115.7
116,6
133.0
142.6
1§5.2
169.8
180.2
189.0
186.0

69.2
34.6
57.7
61, §
50.0
3.8
38.5

23 !l
76,9
53.8
38.5
53.8
34.6
53.8
69.2
57,7
3.8
38.5

19.2
53.8
61.5
88.5
23. 1
50,0
6 1 .5
29.2
92.3

26.9
46,2
61.5
88,5
23,1
42,3
76.9
41.7
88.5

69.2
23.1
53.8
76.9
92.3
23.1
42.3
76.9
45.8
88. §

42.3
42.3
15.4
80.8
15.4
46.2
65,4
88.5
53.8

38.5
23.1
23.1
73.1
15.4
38.5
73.1
76,9
65,4

61.5
23.1
50.0
80,8
15.4
53.8
65.4
53,8
5?.?

76.9
38.5
84.6
76.9
84.6
19.2
65.4
73.1
62.5
88.5
§8.3
65.4
23.1
57.7
80.8
19.2
53,8
80.8
69.2
69.2

76.2
72.1
73.3
72.1
77.2
79.4
81.0
84.9
98,4

75.7
72.0
74.4
69.7
77.8
79.2
81.3
87.0
99.4

?4.6
72.2
76.1
69,2
77.9
79.9
80.1
88.5
99.8

100.6
115.7
138.6
150.7
146.6
134.8
112.2
104.5
103.1
101.8
101.5
96.3
100.1
95.0
102.5
110.5
117.3
125,0
137.4
145.2
160.4
177.1
185.5
188.7
182.2

101.3
116.8
140,1
150.7
145.8
133.2
110.9
102.9
103.8
101.2
101. §
99.3
99.5
18.1
103.6
111.2
117.9
126.9
136.9
145.5
162.9
178.3
186.2
188.9
180.5

3fl,8

77 .7
72.2
70.7
75.4
76.8
79.0
82 ,0
81.3
97.9

76.9
72.5
71.4
73.9
7?,3
79.5
81.8
83.
98.

97.7
112,1
130.6
148,6
148.7
141.5
116 .7
107.1
104,0
102.1
100.4
97.7
99.1
102.6

98,2
113.0
132.4
148.8
149.1
139.5
115.8
107.1
102.7
100.5
101,3
97.8
100.2
102.3

103,8
114.4
118.6
134.3
144.9
156.1
171,9
182.4
188. 7
184.9

103.0
115.6
120. §
134.2
145.0
159.2
173.5
183.7
189.1
184.9

98.
113.
134.
149.
148.
138.
114.6
106.0
103.2
100.8
101.5
99,4
100.6
103.1
103.3
106.3
116.3
121.8
135.2
146 .3
161.2
174.8
184.6
189.8
184.3

j revisions but are reprinted for the GO venienee of the user.

III

53.8
69.2
50.0
§0.0
30.8
53.8
26.9
61.5
34.6
61.5
§0.0
61. §
42.3
61.5
S3. 8
65.4
42,3
53.8
76.9
73.1
23.1
57.7
65.4
57,7
42.3
76.9
46,2
46.2
46.2
42.3
19.2
57.7
65.4
§0.6
76.9

§57. I N D E X OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N , D E F E N S E A N D SPACE E Q U I P M E N T
( I N D E X : 1977-100)
1954..
1955..
1956,.
1937..
1938,,
1939..
I960..
1961,.
1962,.
1963..
1964..
196S.,
1966,,
196?,.

II Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

46,2
38.5
23.1
42.3
61.5

69)2
38.3
50.0
69,2
84.6
SO.O
34.6
34.6
80,8
30,0
76,9
69.2
65,4
61.5
57.7
65.4
34.6
50.0
69.2
11,5
69.2
30.8
63.4
50.0
76.9
53.8
61.5
57.7

Dec.

O V E R 1-MOWTH S P A N S )

73.1
65.4
42.3
46,2
38,5

I N D E X O F SPOT M A R K E T PR1CES--13 R A W I N D U S T R I A L M A T E R I A L S
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 9 - M O N T H S P A N S )

61.3
73.1
50.0
46.2
46,2
61.5
46.2
53,8
30,8
69,2
61.5
61.5
34.6
15,4
30,8
76.9
34.6
46.2
92.3
92.3
61. S
19.2
80.8
§0,0
58.3

Nov.

Oct.

5§.l

8.9

34.6

61.5
75.6
21 '.8
73.1
48.?
46,2
48.7
50.0
67.9
75.6
55,1
3.8
39.8
89 .?
71,8
33.9
74.3
82.0
84,6
20.5
57, 7
73.1
61.1
89.8
61.1
64.1
20.5
5?.?
78.2
23.1
53.8
74,4
64.1
62.8

S9.3
74.0
S 6 .6
27,9
62.5
39.9
41.4
57.3
33.0
62.8
74,3
57.4
20,2
25.6
62 ,2
36.2
57 .'?
79,8
ft?. 5
42.3
42.0
69,6
50.0
80.4
76.1
52.0
38.2
31.4
78.6
33.3
38.3
39.0
80.1
61,8

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

99.5
114.7
136.2
150.5
145.0
137.3
113.0
105.4
102.4
101.8
101.8
98.4
100.7
95.9
1 02 . 5
109.3
116.7
123,7
136.4
146 .4
160.8
175.2
185 ,6
190.3
184.0

78.0
72,§
70.7
74.9
76.?
79.3
81.8
81.8
97.5
102.3
98.2
112,8
132.4
148.9
148.9
139.9
115.7
106.7
103.3
101.1
101.1
98.3
100.0
102.7
102 . 6
105.0
115.4
120.3
134.6
14§.4
158.8
173.4
183.6
189.2
184.8

?§.§
72.1
74.6
70.3
77.6
79.5
80.8
86.8
99.2
102 ,5
100.5
115.?
138.3
130.6
145.8

13§.l
112.0
104.3
103.1
101.6
101.6
98.0
100.1
96.3
102 ,9
110.3
117.4
US,2
136.9
145.7
161.4
176.9
185.8
189.3
182 .2

79.8
?3.1
71.4
74.6
74. 9
78,9
81.1
82.4
95.4
102 ,9
99.6
110.3
129.6
14?. 8
148,1
141,0
119.4
107.3
104.3
101.9
100.4
98.5
100.1
100.0
101.2
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143,1
156.4
171.4
182.0
188.9
185 .8
(OCTOBER 1989)

G. Supplemental Data and Analyses

MI

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

Japan
(Yen)

West
Germany

France

(0. mark)

(Franc)

III III 1 1 1 ) 1 1

127.69
129.17
127.11
124.90
124.79
127.47
133.02
133.77
134.32
128.68
123.20
123.61

1.6537
1.6965.
1.6770
1.6710
1.6935
1.7579
1.8466
1.8880
1.8668
1.8165
1.7491
1.7563

5.5808
5.7323
5.6893
5.6704
5.7348
5.9310
6.2241
6.3919
6.3515
6.1975
5.9746
5.9994

127.36
127.74
130.55
132.04
137.86
143.98
140.42
r!41.49
145.07
2142.30

1.8356
1.8505
1.8686
1.8697
1.9461
1.9789
1.8901
rl.9268
1.9502
21.8792

6.2538
6.3004
6.3321
6.3223
6.5815
6.7135
6.4105
r6.5085
6.5855
2
6.3759

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

Italy
(Lira)

Canada
(Dollar)

Jap an (y en;

\

(Pound)

X / \r

0.5553
0.5688
0.5456
0.5324
0.5349
0.5628
0.5865
0.5894
0.5938
0.5751
0.5529
0.5477

We:itGer many (d.rnark)
/^

*^*v

\.

*\

'S tJ

1216.88
1249.62
1240.67
1240.99
1258.81
1305.56
1367.26
1397.93
1393.15
1353.36
1300.22
1295.61

1.2855
1.2682
1,2492
1.2353
1.2373
1.2176
1.2075
1.2237
1.2267
1.2055
1.2186
1.1962

89.29
91.09
89.73
88.95
89.74
92.58
96.53
98.29
97.91
95.10
91.91
91.88

1345.12
1355.28
1372.50
1371.80
1415.83
1434.40
1367.39
r 1384. 24
1404.18
2
1378.27
.

1.1913
1.1891
1.1954
1.1888
1.1925
1.1986
1.1891
rl.1758
1.1828
21.1753

95.12
95.77
96.99
97.24
100.81
103.09
99.12
100.44
101.87
2
99.38

•j" "\
/\

^

260
240
200

V
\J

"^N

^

\

A
/
f

^

J

J

Ital V (lir<

^'v. .-"I>^ /AX
^f

NX
/

/

^

/

120
2.8
2.4
2.0

^\

A

r

/

y

1.6
10

?

United Kingdom (po und)

/

f*
J

/\

\ *j A
/V
\^

160

V

> ^j

'S

/ -x

E
\A\

A^

'V

9
8
7
/\

^\> J^

J^,

6

EE

\

\ \s

s

r

v^ m

\
\ \ y\ ^
^\

/

m

s~r
"^*J

/-

vv^
V—' ^^ —^s. ^

^
Exchange value of the U.S. dollar ^
(index: March 1973=100) _, v/
y\

s—

fT
—^v
^^\

% /v f

f^*

^v^>

III III

)|

1

5
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.5
2000
1800
1600

1400
1200
1000
800
1.6

Canada (dollar)

1989
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

J

F ranee (fra

/"

(March 1973=100)

A

>

0.5638
0.5703
0.5836
0.5880
0.6132
0.6439
0.6147
0.6271
0.6363
2
0.6311

Exchange value
of the U.S.
dollar 1

^v

V

1988
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Ratio scale
320

^^

1989
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

II III III III III III III III

Foregn currency per U.S. dollar—

United
Kingdom

1988
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1

II III 1 1

S'

1.4

f~***

*— V-^ —s.
^*v>
EE

\
\

1.2
1.0
180
140

\

\
V

J\ S*
EE
1 1 III III III ^ III III
III

120
100
60

76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
1
This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
2

Average for October 2 through 20.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




105

G. Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index

Basic data

(and

Scries title
unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment i nsu ranee State programs * ( thous . ) . . . .
8, M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. d o l . ) . , .
32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries
dlf fits ion index (percent)
20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars {bil. dol )
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . .
92. Change in m f r s . 1 unfilled orders in 1982
dollars, durable goods, smoothed 2 (bil. d o l . ) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed^ (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 3
(index: 1941-43-10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil dol )
83. Index of consumer expectations 3
(index: 1st Q 1966S100)
910. Composite index of leading indicators'*
(index; 1982^100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate* bil. d o l . )
47 , Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of roughly coincident'*
indicators (index: 1982-100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment 1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to s a l e s in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of
output, m f g , s smoothed 2 (ann. rate, percent). .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . )
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . . .
120. Change in consumer price index for services,
smoothed2 (ann. rate, percent)
930. Composite index of lagging indicators''
(index: 1982^100)

June
1989

41.0

July
1989

41.0

Aug.
1989

40.9

328

338

316

86.93

r82.90

r90.70

47.5

r48.00

46.9

rSO.Ol

44.9

r47.00

Sept.
1989

p41 .0
320
p 8 7 . 15
43.8

p45.8l

104.3

102. 2

105.9

105,2

2.20

r2.22

rl .66

pi. 32

-.23

-.47

-.48

.13

323.73

331 .93

346.61

347.33

2,399. 4

2,416.7

r2,431.3

82.0

85.5

80.3

June
to
July
1989

.00

July
to
Aug.
1989

-.07

Aug.
to
Sept.
1989

.07

-.08

. 19

-.03

-.25

,48

-.21

-.03

. 10
-.06

.01
-.30

-.08

-.05

-. IS

-.06

. 10

-=.02

-. 18

-.11

-.20

-.01

. 14

.24

.01

p2,442.8

.24

.20

.16

p88.6

.13

-. 19

.31

.00

.49

.21

r 144.0

r 144.0

r!44.7

p!45.0

108,607

1:108,767

r!08,855

p!09,064

. 12

.06

.20

2,912.8

r2,922.7

r2,932.4

p2,933.2

.18

. 17

.02

p!42.3

.00

.08

-.03

-.24

.81

NA

-.15

.98

.00

-.47

.36

r!42.G

142.0

456,223

r451,795

r!32.8

r!32.6

142.4
P466,572

133.9

11. 1

12.0

11.3

1 .52

1.54

pi. 50

rl.O

rl. 1

11.07
r390,239
15.87

10.98
r39l,545
ri5.76

rl.5

10,50

r 400 ,91 7
p!5. 79

4.8

4.9

4.8

r!20.S

r!20.0

r!20.3

NA
p!33.9

11.4

-.07

NA

.26

-.52

NA

pi .8

.02

.07

.07

10.50
p398,508

NA
p4.4

pl!9.7

-.05

.08
-.34

.05
-.41

-.28

.00

.53

-.19

,09

NA

-.05

.25

-.27
-.50

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized change for the component by the number of components and dividing that result by the index
standardization factor. See the January 1989 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 97-102) for the standardization factors.
NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised.
series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
2
This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
3
Fhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source: stock
prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
^Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.142; for the coincident index, -0.186; for the lagging index, 0.030.

106



G. Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued

CIBCR Composite Indexes of Leading Indicators
Ratio scale
240

220
200
180
160

CIBCR long-leading index (1967 = 100)
220
200
180
160
140
120

100

CIBCR short-leading index (1967=
80

--1

60

m'Mmi ill 111 mm in in
48 49 SO 51 52 S3 54 55 56 57 SB 59 60 81 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 76 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 69

CIBCR long-leading index (1967=100)

CIBCR short-leading index (1967=100)

Month
1985

January
February. . .
March
April
May ...
June
July
August
September. .
October
November. . .
December. . .

1986

1987

1988

1989

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

171.8
174.9
173.2
175.8
179.0
181.6
182.3
184.5
186.2
183.2
185.8
187.9

188.8
188.3
186.6
192.4
193.3
193.7
195.2
195.5
197.4
197.2
199.4
204.6

203.2
205.0
204.8
205.5
204.1
205.1
207.5
206.7
205.0
205.1
206.1
206.0

206.3
210.5
210.8
212.8
213.9
214.3
216.0
217.3
217.1
215.6
218.0
219,7

219.5
218.5
215.3
219.5
220.3
r221.6
r222.4
r223.6
p225.4

172.2
171.3
172.2
171.7
173.0
173.6
173.9
175.1
176.1
177.1
176.0
178.6

179.8
179.7
180.2
181.5
181.9
182.6
182.5
184.2
185.6
186.1
187.3
190.3

r!89.7
191.4
191.8
191.7
194.3
196.8
196.6
197.8
197.2
r!96.5
195.1
194.0

193.4
194.6
195.0
196.1
r!96.0
r!98.9
197,8
r!98.4
198.3
198.6
199.0
201.3

201.9
201.9
202.5
203.7
202.2
202.6
r201.6
r203.6
P205.8

NOTE: These indexes are compiled by Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR).
The components of each index are listed below, and the source is indicated for each component not shown in BCD.
Long-leading index: Building permits for new private housing units (BCD 29), bond prices (Dow-Jones & Company), ratio
of price to unit labor cost in manufacturing (CIBCR), and deflated M2 money supply (BCD 106).
Short-1 eading index: Average weekly hours in manufacturing (BCD 1), average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance (BCD 5), layoff rate under 5 weeks (CIBCR), deflated new orders for consumer goods and materials (BCD 8), vendor performance (BCD 32), change in business population (CIBCR), deflated contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(BCD 20), inventory change (National Association of Purchasing Management), change in industrial materials prices (Journal of Commerce)» stock prices (BCD 19), and change in deflated total debt (CIBCR).
Further information about these indexes and their non-BCD components may be obtained from the Center for International
Business Cycle Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.




107

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Current issue
Series <page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
_ Sources of Series." following this index)
Agricultural products, exports
,.
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer expectations, index
Consumer sentiment, index..,.,
Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01
,
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, 01.
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars..
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl.
,
Prices, manufacturing, Dl .,....„.
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl......
,.„
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
,
Automobiles
Imports ot automobiles and parts
,
Personal consumption expenditures
B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Uans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
.,.,......
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds- -See Interest rates.
Borrowing--See Credit.
Budget--See Government.
Building- ^See Construction,
Building permits, new private housing....
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities

Business formation, index

Business incorporations
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars.....
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
,„.„..,..

97
65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76

2/89
12/88
7/89
7/89
7/89
10/88
10/88
10/88
7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89

616
55

n

56

92
65

7/89
9/89

93
94

33
33

72
72

11/88
11/88

20
37
37
37
23"
23
37
37
37
37
37
56
39

35
35

29 13,25
76
24

67
67

9/89
1/89

24
12

14
12
13

72
65
65

7/89
1/88
7/89

34
21
21

73
73
71
82

4/89
4/89
4/89
11/88

32
32
32
26

33
23
23

15,35
35
32
46

64
64

1/89
1/89

14
14

24
24
37
48

66
66
75

5/88
5/88
5/88
5/89

22
22
22
51

1/86
9/89
9/89

5
26
26

97
11
965
338

914
35
34

29
29

60
70
70

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89

9
9
9
9

920
920e
951
940
9

10
39
36
11
23

60

"74"
60
66

10/89
10/89
10/89
10/89
5/88

5
5
21

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

4/89
4/89
4/89

32
32
32

345
280

49
45

87
82

11/88
11/88

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

9/89

46

11/88

46

8/88

5

7/89
7/89

53
53

87

49
50
50

87

19

63

4/89

920
920e
940

10
39
11

60

10/89
10/89
10/89

930
930c
,

49
49

53

Index

346
340
341
348
349

Earnings, real average hourly, private nontarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators

108

13
22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38

....

economy..,.




83
58
9?4
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973

7/89

.....
..,.,..

Employment as percent of population
,
Labor force
...,.,
Unemployed.....
,
Coincident indicators
Composite index ......„..„.„.„.,.......
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
,
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded..
Commercial and industrial loans
Leans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector...
,
,
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income.,
,
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector,...,
,
..,.,
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm

Sae notes at end sf index.

56

Series
description
C)

20
20

Employment ,.,......,...,

Rate of change...
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Index
Rate of change,
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Eleven leaders, index
Eleven leaders, rate of change
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows..,..
, ,
Profitability.

604

101
72
112
295

Canada -See International comparisons,
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog...,,.,..,,,.. ,..,.,„.,...
Newly approved
„.......„.,
,
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index,.
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.

Historical
data
(issue date)

10
39

914
910
910c
915
917
916

10
39
11
11
11

10/89
10/89
•60
60

1/86
10/89
10/89

60
60

1/88

Series title

(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales....
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer expectations, index
Consumer finished goods, producer pries index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Services
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding

Net change

Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
Debt-See Credit,
Defense and space equipment, industrial production ....
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers1
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components..
New orders, manufacturing
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components

Current issue
Series (pagenumbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description

13,25 67

9/89

23
24

66
67

5/88
9/88

21
17

248
87
89
249
28
83
334

25
47
25
25
47
25
13
48
12,21
22

67
83
67
67
83
67
97
86
64
65

9/89
10/88
9/89
9/89
10/88
4/89
2/89
5/89
4/89
1/89

40
40
40
40
40
24

'1
$
15
12

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

8/89
8/89
8/89
2/88

33
33
33
34

320
322
120
58

49
49
15
22

84,95
84
97
65

3/89
3/89
2/89
12/88

49
49

525

53

90

6/89

55

20

12,23

66

9/88

21

10
116

23
34

66
73

9/88
5/88

21
35

110

32

29
9
69

11/88

101 15,35
72
35
112
32

73
73
71

4/89
4/89
4/89

32
32
32

66
113
95
39
111
33

35
32
15,35
33
32
32

73
72
73
72
72
71

8/89
8/89
8/89
2/88
8/89
9/86

33
33
33
34
31
31

98
331

28
48

8/89
5/89

51
50

10/89

557

54

517
543
580
578
577
525

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
91
90

6/89
6/89
7/89
6/89
6/89
6/89

55
55
56
56
56
55

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

9/88
9/88
9/88
9/88
6/89
8/88
8/88

17
15
17
15
5
43
43

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

2/88
2/89

34
17

965
951
974
963
966

37
36
38
36
37

5/88
10/89
7/89
4/89
10/89

22
5
37
5
12

962
975
952
950
964

36
38
36
36
37

2/88
7/89
10/89
10/89
9/88

37
5
5
15

971
970
960
972
967

38
38
37
38
37

7/89
10/88
5/88
7/89
10/89

37°
23
37
37
25

973
976
978
977
968
961

'38
38
38
38
37
36

75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77

7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
12/88
7/88

'37°
37
37
37
25
5

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)
Series .
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
C)

E
Earnings— See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, civilian
Unemployment rate 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, 01
Equipment— See Investment, capital.
Expectations— See Anticipations and intentions.
Exports— See International transactions.

441
578
577

51
55
55

48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
43
44
45
1

39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16

961

36

89
91
91
61
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74

3/89
6/89
6/89

9
56
56

8/89
8/89
8/89
7/89
8/89
4/89
3/89
6/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
4/89
2/88
8/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
8/89
8/89

5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
5

7/88

5

F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government— See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment— See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Foreign trade— See International transactions.
France— See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
. . .
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment— See Investment, capital.

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime

119

34

72

6/88

35

94
213
917

33
40
11

72 ,
80
60

11/88
10/88
1/88

35
38
5

311

48

84

8/88

49

93

33

72

11/88

35

14

49

20

63

9/89

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81

11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

311
68

48
30

84
70

8/88
9/89

49
28

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

19,40

9/89
9/89
9/89

31
20
48
40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80

10/88

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

46
60

16
16

61
61

3/89
3/89

9
9

1

12,16

5

36
16

61
77
74
61

8/89

961
21

7/88
8/89

5
5

39
40

11/88

8/88
8/88

10/88
10/88
10/88
8/88
9/89
8/88

•

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

28
29
89
249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

10/88

24
24
40
40

310

48

84

8/88

38

345
280

49
45

87
82

11/88
11/88

46
46

4/89
9/89
9/89

1
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports— See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
•Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production— See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit~See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks :
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
.
Italy
Japan
,
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan . .
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany

64

30,47

70,83

9/89

46

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

88
73
82

11/88
11/88

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

83
80
80

11/88
10/88
10/88

26
11
11

227

40

80

10/88

11

340

49

87

8/88

5

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

8/88
9/89
9/89

5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11

51c
51
108
282

39
14,19
31
45

63
71
82

11/88

30
47

283
284

47
45

83
82

11/88
11/88

47
47

285
348
349

47
50
50

83
S8
88

11/88
7/89
7/89

47
53
53

53
13
335

19
23
48

63
65
85

4/89
7/89
5/89

11
21
51

76
75
557
73
74
47

24
22
54
20
20
14,20,58

1/89
1/89

12
12
13
12
12
12

966
47c

37
39

67
65
91
63
63
63,94
78
75

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

5
962
45
288
289

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

11/88
11/88

8
g
8
47
47 .

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
,73
86

9/89
5/88
6/88
6/88
5/88
2/88
5/88
5/88
5/89

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

733
736
737
738
732
320
735

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
3/89
4/88

60
61
61
61
60
49
61

94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
14,20,58 63,94
94
58

6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89

59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

8/89

11/88
11/88
10/88
9/88
9/88
9/88
9/88
4/89

10/89
1/89
1/89
6/89

ii

10/89
12/87

iz

10/89

25
25

1/88

4/89
2/88
8/89

See notes at end of index.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International eompa rise ns— Continued
Stock prices
Canada ,.,......,......,
,,
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
.0,....
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services........................
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Experts, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military

Historical
data
(issue date)

Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars.....
Manufacturing and trade, Dl,
,
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
§n order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
..,..
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change— See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars..
Fixed investment current dollars
Nsnresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential percent of GNP .
Total, constant dollars
Tetal, current dollars ,.,....
,
New orders, tiandefense capital goods,
constant dollars............
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.

667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93

9/89
9/89
7/89
9/89
7/89
10/88
10/88
9/89
7/89
7/89
9/89
7/89
9/89
11/88
10/88
7/89
9/89
9/89

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

44

82

10/88

44

44
47

82
83

10/88
10/88

44
44

30
245
247
559
65
77
915
71
31
70
975

26,42
42
47
54
27
15,27
11
27
26
2?
38

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76

9/89
10/88
10/88
9/88
12/88
8/89
1/88
9/89
9/89
9/89
7/89

40
40
40
17
17
17
17
17
17
37

26

68

9/89

17

27

68

12/88

17

38

. .

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

78

Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports ot goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of gaods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade

6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89

36

Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Experts of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
,
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

250
251

,.

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

255

,

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

26

68

12/88

17

97
11
965
914
9

24
24
37

5/88
5/88
5/88
1/86
5/88

22
22
22

'23"

66
66
75
60
66

69

24

67

9/88

17

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

10/88
10/88
9/89
10/88

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

9/89
9/89
9/89
10/88
10/88
10/88

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

66

9/88

15

24

23

66

9/88

15

20
10
100
61
970

12,23
23
24
24
38

66
66
67
67
76

9/88
9/88
10/88
10/88
10/88

21
21
'23
23

652
651

57
57

93
93

9/89
9/89

57
57

21

J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor east per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost pec unit of output, manufacturing
Index
Percent change
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm businessLabor force—See Employment,
Lagging indicators
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
,.,
See notes at end ef index.

110




,

68
63

30
30

70
70

9/89
10/88

28
28

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
97
70

2/89
2/89
10/88

28
'28'

930
930c
952

10
39
36

60

10/89
10/89
10/89

"5"

74

5

Current issue
Series . (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Series
description
(*)

Leading indicators
Composite index

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

. ...

rf

'

5

. • ""' " "

udoiimes of uubmt!y> la lures

""" "

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
31

'?4
72
71

10/89
10/89
10/89
7/89
4/89

"5"
34
29

78

27

68

12/88

17

.. .

38
84
8

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

12/88
1/89
4/89

17
14
15

917

11

60

1/88

5

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

4/89
4/89
4/89
4/89
4/89
8/88
4/89
9/86
6/88
5/88

29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

9/88
9/88
4/89

15
15
15

20

12,23

66

9/88

21

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

9/88
9/88
4/89
4/89

21
15
15
15

964
971

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

9/88
7/89

'is'

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

9/89
9/89
9/89
10/88

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

6/89
6/89
6/89

55
55
58

580

54

91

7/89

56

49

fVH

20

63

9/89

14

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
97
88
88
64
64
61

2/89
2/89
10/88
10/88
1/89
1/89
8/89

28
°52"
52
14
14
5

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

3/89
3/89
3/89

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

9/89
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

11/88
11/88
7/89

48
48
56

......

60

Loans— See Credit.

M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials capacity utilization rate
.
Materials new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices— See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade— See International transactions.
Military- -See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets change in total
Money supply Ml constant dollars
Money supply Ml percent changes
Money supply M2 constant dollars
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields

N
National defense— See Defense.
National Government— See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense,. current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid Defense Department
QECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays Defense Department
Output— See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
labor cost per unit of
Index
Percent change
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
.
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income— See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

, .

37

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Current issue
Series . (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices— See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Services
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

9/88
9/88

21
21

10/88
10/88
10/88

'23'

20
10
100
61
970
90

66
66
67
67
76
62

320
322
120

49
49
15

84,95
84
97

3/89
3/89
2/89

49
49

311
310
26

48
48
29

84
84
70

8/88
8/88

10/88

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
8/89

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

10/89
1/88

25
25

98
99

500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices— See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI. , , .
Production— See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income ,. . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, DS
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income

12,23
23
24
24
38
17

28
13,28

69
69

8/89
2/89

51
25

19
968
26

13,28
37
29

69
75
70

12/88
12/88
10/88

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

7/89
7/89
7/89
6/89
2/88

37
37
37
55
35

88

25

67

9/89

40

3/89

23
9

370
358
916

50
50
11

88
88
60

10/88
10/88
1/88

52
52
5

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

9/89
9/89
9/89
9/89

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

11/88
11/88

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

9/89

11/88

26
47

283

47

83

11/88

47

967
23
284

37
28
45

79
75
69
82

10/89

25
25
47

285
93
89

47
33
25

83
72
67

Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components

:.

Current issue
Series . (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

249

47

83

10/88

40

59
54

22
22

65
65

8/89
8/89

20
20

213

40

80

10/88

38

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14.22
22
38
15,2/
22
22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

9/88
8/89
8/89
7/89
8/89
8/89
8/89

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88

26
48
48
48
48

98
99
588

28
13,28
54

69
69
91

8/89
2/89
9/88

51
25
17

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

10/89
1/88

25
25

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

12/88
12/88

25
25

114
115

34
34

72
73

5/88
5/88

35
35

91
60
5
962

15,18
16
12,16
36

62
61
61
74

3/89
3/89
4/89
2/88

9
9
8
8

446
445
447
444
37

51
51
51
51
18,51

89
89
89
89
62,89

3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89

9
9
9
9

43
44
45

18
18
18

62
62
62

3/89
3/89
8/89

9
9
8

561
92
96
25

54
13
21
21

91
97
64
64

9/88
2/89
9/88
9/88

'is'

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

71
71
64

8/88
4/89
2/89

30
30
17

W
Wages and salaries— See Compensation.
West Germany— See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices— See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index

1

12,16

5

36

61
77
74

8/89

961

7/88

5

Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures— See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

s
Salaries— See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices— See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
.•
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government— See Government,
Stock prices— See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus— See Government.

T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

U

7/89
5/88
9/89
1/88
9/89

R

Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

1/88

11/88
11/88
11/88
9/89

47
35
40

Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
Civilian
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars, change
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars, change
United Kingdom— See International comparisons.

15
15

V

NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




111

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are tor
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. "M" following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).--The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1
and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysts
(23,65)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(26,68)
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source 2
(26,68)

Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2
(29,70)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)

I-A. Composite Indexes

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1
(28,69)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)

910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99,
106) (M).-Sourcel
(10,39,60)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20,29) (M).-Source 1
(60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M) Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Sourcel
(11,60)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
930, Composite index of seven lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109,120) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(1160)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).™U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(12,16,61)

28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67)
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q). Source 1
(26,42,68,81)

6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Sourcc 2
(21,64,77)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(M).-Sourcesland2
(26,68)

7, Manufacturers* new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)

32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index
(M).—National Association of Purchasing Management and Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(12,21,64)

8, Manufacturers* new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).-Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)
9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

112



33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board
(32,71)

42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricuUural activities (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).~Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q)-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1
(19,63)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1 (19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(22,65)
59. Sates of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)
61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars (Q).-Source 2
(24,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70,97)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of work-

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods
(EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)

92. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source

4

(35,73)

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current
dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)

ing age (M).-Sourcesland3

(17,62)

91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source3

(15,18,62)

dollars, durable goods industries (M).— Sources 1,
2, and 3
(13,97)
93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4

(33,72)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4

(15,35,73)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2

(21,64)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board

(24,66)

98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.

(13,28,69)

100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 2

(24,67)

73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982

74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)

dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source4
(22,65)

102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and

76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source4
(24,67)

4
(31,71)
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M),-Sources 1
and 4
(31,71)

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sates in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order (EOM).—Source 2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
Source 4
(20,64)
83. Index of consumer expectations (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(13,97)
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4

(31,71)

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources land 4

109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
116.
117.

87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

118.

89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)




(31,71)

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—

86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel
(25,67)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

(13,31,71)

Sources land 4
(31,71)
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(15,35,73)
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source4
(32,72)
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, *4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(32,72)
Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)

(34,72)
119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
120. Change in consumer price index for services (M).—
Sources 1 and 2

(15,97)

I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of seven lagging indicator components
(M).-Sourcel
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(37,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 349 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M),-Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sourcesl and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
38-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of new plant and equipment expenditures by business, 21 industries (Q).—Sources 1
and 2
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976, Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977, Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—
about 400 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Sourcel

(42,81)

245. Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel

(42,81)

247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1

(47,83)

248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

978, Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a

ll-A. National Income and Product

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of

percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
gross national product (Q).—Source 1

(44,82)
(47,83)

30, Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (QV
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)

252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars

64, Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).^Sourcel
(30,47,70,83)

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

200, Gross national product in current dollars (Q)/ •
Sou reel
(40,80)

256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

213, Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).--Source 1

257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

(40,80)

(Q).-Sourcel
(Q).-Sourcel
(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Sourcel
(Q).-Source 1

(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)

217, Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sources land 2
(40,80)

260. Government purchases of goods and services in

220. National income in current dollars (Q). Source
1
(45,82)

261. Government purchases of goods and services in

current dollars (Q).-Source 1
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(43,81)
(43,81)

223. Personal income in current dollars (M), Source
1
(40,63)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).Source 1
(40,80)

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(43,81)
(43,81)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q),
(47,83)
Source 1
290. Gross saving (Q).—Source 1

(46,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)

295, Business saving (Q).—Source 1

(46,82)

298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)

II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q).-Sourcel
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).—Source 1
(48,84)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
322, Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).=-Source3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,50,87)

225. Disposable persona! income in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1
(40,80)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q),-Sources land 2
(40,80)

vices as a percent of gross national product (Q). Source 1
(47,83)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

266. State and local government purchases of goods and

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q), -Source 1
(41,80)

267. State and local government purchases of goods and

232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,50,88)

services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Sourcel
(47,83)

348, Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)

233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q) .--Sou rce 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).™Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).--Source 1
(41,81)

services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

280. Compensation of employees (Q) .-Source 1

(43,81)
(43,81)

(45,82)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
283.

Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

284, Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).=-Source 1

(45,82)

238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption

239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Souree 1
(42,81)

114



341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,50,87)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,50,87)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q) .-Sou rce 3 (50,88)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)

tl-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M). Source 3

(18,51,62,89)

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua-

441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

tion and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

442. Civilian employment (M).-Source3

(51,89)

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q) .-Sou rce 1
(47,83)

288, Net interest (Q).-Sou reel

(45,82)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age(M).~Source3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).SourceS
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II-D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

(52,90)
502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q)-

Source 1

(52,90)

511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source2
(53,90)

570. Employment, defense products industries (M),Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-US. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production <M)Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).Source2
(56,92)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M)Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports (M).-Source 2

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)




722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)

II-E. U.S. International Transactions

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
CentralediStatistica(Rome)
(58,94)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)

561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production (M)Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

(57,93)

669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)

il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation

(13,28,59,69,96)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).-lstituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. united Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stoc* prices (M)-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltaiia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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