Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1989
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary Michael R. Darby, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Allan H. Young, Director Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director George R. Green, Editor This report is prepared by the Business Outlook Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (Telephone: 202-523-0800) Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are as follows: Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Computer system development Charles S. Robinson—Composite indexes Mary D. Young—Data base manager The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Frank de Leeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue Composite Indexes: Latest Release . . METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes iii v 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 OCTOBER 1989 Data Through September Volume 29, Number 10 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 Cl C2 C3 Chart Table 10 12 14 15 60 — — — CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit 16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change 36 — 39 74 77 — The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. BCII I!. IMPORTANT NATIONAL INCOME A5_ AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving Shares of GNP and National Income Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 48 49 84 87 51 89 52 53 90 90 56 57 92 93 58 59 59 94 95 96 WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY _Bf] BJTj Price Movements Wages and Productivity FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT [Lei J Civilian Labor Force and Major Components GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES .JEXLJ D2J Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS EL J E2 1] Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS ELJ J-~2 L£3_J Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices PART III. APPENDIXES Cyclical Indicators: New Composite Index Components Current Adjustment factors (August 1989issue) Historical Data for Selected Series Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1989 issue) Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (May J989 issue) Supplemental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 97 98 105 108 112 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Editor, Business Conditions Digest, Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230. NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE Changes in this issue are as follows: 1. In this issue, the composite indexes (series 910, 920, 930, and 940) have been revised from January 1984 through August 1989. This is the first of the annual revisions (announced early this year) that will incorporate revised data for component seri es. The revi si on thi s year i ncludes a technical correction to the standardization factor for one component of the leading index. Early this month, BEA discovered that the standardization factor for the consumer expectations component (series 83) should have been computed separately for the periods 1952-77 and 1978-85, rather than the entire period 1952-85. A new standardization factor (3.931), computed over the period 197885, has been applied to the consumer expectations component from January 1984 forward. This correction reduces the inf1uence of this component on the 1eading index in recent years. Most revisions to the monthly percent changes in the composite indexes are very small. For the leading index, during the period January 1984 through August 1989, 43 of the 68 months have revisions of 0.1 percentage point or less; the largest revisions are 0.4 percentage point in December 1986 and in November 1987. Historical data for the composite indexes are shown in appendix C. Further information concerning the composite index revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division. (Continued on page iv.) The November issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on December 7. in 2. In addition to the composite index revision (see item 1, above), the diffusion indexes based on the composite index components (series 950, 951, and 952) have been recomputed from 1984 forward. Historical data for these indexes are shown in appendix C. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division. 3. The index of industrial production for Canada (series 723) has been revised by the source agency from 1984 forward. This revision reflects the annual updating of the basic statistics and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from Statistics Canada, Industry Product Division, Ottawa K1A OV5, Canada. 4. Historical data for series 557, 910, 920, 930, 940, 950-952, 966, and 967 are shown in appendix C (pages 98-104). Availability of Data Data for the composite indexes, their components, and other economic time series shown in Business Conditions Digest are available in several forms — printout, diskette, computer tape, and electronic bulletin board. For information about these products, write to the Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 523-0800. IV COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS: SEPTEMBER 1989 The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.2 percent in September to 145.0 (1982=100), according to preliminary estimates released October 31 by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. On the basis of revised estimates (see page iii), the index increased 0.5 percent in August and was unchanged in July. A month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that showed the index increased 0.3 percent in August and 0.1 percent in July. The index of consumer expectations was the major contributor to the August and July revisions. Four of 11 indicators contributed to the September increase in the index. They were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: index of consumer expectations, money supply in 1982 dollars, average workweek, and stock prices. Seven of 11 indicators made negative contributions. They were, ordered from the largest negative contributor to the smallest: manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1982 dollars, change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index), average weekly initial claims for State unemployment insurance, building permits, and change in sensitive materials prices. The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate economic activity, was unchanged in September at 133.9 (1982=100). The index increased 1.0 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July. The composite index of lagging indicators decreased 0.5 percent in September to 119.7 (1982=100). The index increased 0.3 percent in August and decreased 0.4 percent in July. The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to confirm the movements in the coincident index. More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 106 of this issue of Business Conditions Digest. Next release date: December 1 for the October composite indexes A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite indexes and their components immediately upon their release. The message is updated weekly to include recently available data for composite index components that will be incorporated into the next release. This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge to users. For information, call (202) 377-1986. COMPUTER USERS: YOU AREINVITED TO TAP-IN TO OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE A one-stop source for CURRENT ECONOMIC INFORMATION For access to the latest releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other Federal agencies on such topics as: • • • • • Listings of new publications and data bases from the Office of Business Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, National Technical Information Service. Gross National Product The Employment Situation Personal Income Consumer Price Index Also available are The Bulletin Board number is (202) 3773870. Call using your personal computer , computer terminal, or word processor. Set the communications switches to no parity, 8-bit words, and 1 stop bit. 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Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures; Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators, (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part 1 are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1962, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1977. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic, MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting Reference Turning Dates scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.) cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general This information, particularly the scores relating practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the 1981-82. individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the 1 Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks N. Economic N, Process Cyclical ^v Timing \. LEADING (I) INDICATORS (61 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (24 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption and trade (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (!) series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (?, series) Interest rates (1 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (19 series) Comprehensive unemployment (2 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Consumption and trade (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (1 series) Interest rates (1 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs \v Economic \. Process X. Cyclical \v Timing N. LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (41 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Industrial production (1 series) Orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices (I series) Sensitive commodity prices (3 series) Profits and profit marg ns (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (4 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (? series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Profits and profit margins (2 series) Money (1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Orders and deliveries (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures (7 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves U series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (5 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through +3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are other indexes based on leading indicators that have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include many component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 11 components of the leadrng index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs, all but one component of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,lg,l_g." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 112 individual time series, including the 21 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18 series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C, Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and- thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided into six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy. Section Al shows the gross national product, final sales, and personal and disposable personal income. The four major components of the gross national p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a l consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports of goods and services—are presented in sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, briefly defined below, are described more fully in the Survey of Current Business, Part I, January 1976. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed capital goods purchased by private business and nonprofit institutions and the value of the change in the physical volume of inventories held by private business. The former include all private purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services (A4) is the compensation of government employees and purchases from business and from abroad. It excludes transfer payments, interest paid by government, and subsidies. It includes gross investment by government enterprises but excludes their current outlays. It includes net purchases of used goods and excludes sales and purchases of land and financial assets. Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports less imports of goods and services. Exports are part of the national production; imports are not, but are included in the components of GNP and are therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. international transactions is provided in section E. National income (A6) is. the incomes that originate in the production of goods and services attributable to labor and property supplied by residents of the United States. Thus, it measures the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits, and net interest. Saving (A7) is the difference between income and expenditures during an accounting period. Total gross saving includes personal saving, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and government surplus or deficit. Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The major e x p e n d i t u r e components of GNP (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as percentages of GNP, and the major income components of national income (compensation of employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as percentages of national income. Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity The important data on price movements include the monthly consumer and producer price indexes and their major components. Based largely on these series are the quarterly price indexes from the national income and product accounts, notably the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights reflecting the changing proportions of different expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are presented for the period since 1977. The group of series on wages and productivity consists of data on average hourly earnings and average hourly compensation (including earnings and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, output per hour of work in the business sector, and rates of change for most of these measures. Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment This section contains measures of the civilian labor force and its major components; Total numbers of employed and unemployed persons. The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class of worker. Also included are data on participation rates for a few principal segments of the labor force. Section D, Government Activities Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels; (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local government. Also shown is a selection of series from the discontinued Defense Indicators. These series measure defense activities which influence short-term changes in the national economy. Included are series relating to obligations, contracts, orders, production, shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment These series are grouped according to the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense order-production-delivery process. Series measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders, are classified as "advance measures of defense activity." Series measuring activities which tend to coincide with production, such as employment, and activities which usually follow production, such as shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final measures of defense activity." Section E. U.S. International Transactions This group includes monthly series on exports (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a few selected components of these aggregates. Also shown are the balances between receipts and expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, and investment income. Section F. International Comparisons This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1977) provide important measures of the rates of inflation in the major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also shown beginning in 1977) tend to be significant as leading indicators. HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data, Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1 -quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3- or 4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data3 Series title and timing classification Unit of measure 1 Percent change 1*1 iI Annual average 1987 198B 3dQ 1989 2dQ 1989 198S July 1989 Sept. 1989 Aug. 1989 Aug, to Sept. 1989 July to Aug. 1989 2dQ to 3dQ 1989 IstQ to 20 Q 1989 $] 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al. Composite Indexes 910. 920. 930, 940. Eleven leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators Seven lagging indicators.... Ratio, coincident index to lagging index , L,L,L.. 1982-100 do C.C.C.... do Lf»,lg,Lg.... do l.l.L... 140.1 122.4 111.3 110.0 142.8 128.2 114.9 111.6 145.4 131.9 119.2 110.7 144.7 132.7 120.0 110.5 144.6 133.5 120.0 111.2 144.0 132.6 120.0 110.5 144.7 133.9 120.3 111.3 145.0 133.9 119.7 111.9 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0. -0.5 0.5 -0.5 0.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0. 0.6 910 920 930 940 l,l,L.., 1967-100 do L,L,L... do III.., do L.L.L.... MA 106.3 121.7 145.8 NA 105,8 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 914 915 916 917 ILL ... Hours do L.C.L... L,C,L... Thousands 41.0 3.7 320 41.1 3,9 305 41.1 3.9 306 41.1 3.8 313 41.0 3.8 325 41.0 3.9 338 40.9 3.7 316 41.0 3.8 320 -0.2 -0.2 6.5 0,2 0.1 -1.3 0.615 153 0.701 158 0.718 154 0.699 153 0.676 148 0.687 150 0.681 147 189.99 196.44 1 0 9 . 2 3 111.80 102.20 105.58 24,708 25,249 200.32 113.66 107.68 25,634 201.44 114.18 108.34 25,664 202.20 114.24 108.90 25,651 202.54 114.24 108.77 25,669 leading Indicator Subgroups: 914. Capital investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing 916 Profitability 917. Money and financial flows B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process Bl. Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments; *1 Average weekly hours mfg 21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3 , *S. Average weekly initial claims (inverted1) Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3 46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers. L,Lg,U.... Ratio.,,.... L,Lg,U.... 1967-100 Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in (^agricultural establishments 42, Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities., *41. Employees on nonagneultural payrolls..... 40 Employees in goods-producing industries SO. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age3 U,Lg,U.... Percent Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Number oi persons unemployed (inverted1) 43. Unemployment rate (inverted1)3 45. Avg, weekly insured unemployment rate (inv/)! *91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted1) 44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.1)3 l,Lg,U,.,, l.lg.U.... L,Lg,U.... Lg,lg,lg...Lg,lg,Lg.... U,C,C.... A.r., oil. hrs...... U,C,C.... Millions do C.C.C.... L C U ... Thousands Thousands Percent do Weeks Percent 0. -0.1 -2.3 -0.2 0. -3.8 0.660 -0.006 - 0 . 0 2 1 -0.019 - 0 . 0 2 3 146 -2.0 -0.7 -0.6 -3.3 2 0 1 . 5 9 202.4-8 114.29 114.20 108.86 109.06 25,696 25,588 -0.5 0. 0.1 0.1 60.77 61.54 62.19 62.26 62,23 62.26 62.28 62.16 7 ,425 6.2 2.4 14.5 1.7 6,701 5.5 2.1 13.5 1.3 6,391 5.2 2.1 12.4 1.1 6,501 5.3 2.1 11.9 1.1 6,501 5.2 2.1 11.6 1.1 6,497 5.2 2,2 12.0 1.2 6,421 5.2 2.1 11.3 1.1 6,584 5.3 2.1 11.4 1.1 1.2 0. 0.1 5.8 0.1 4158.1 3416.7 3407.8 3420.1 3422.1 0.4 0.02 0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.1 1 21 5 60 46 48 42 41 40 -0.12 0.07 -2.5 -0.1 0. -0.9 0. -1.7 -0.1 0. 4.0 0. 0. 0.1 0. 2.5 0. 37 43 45 91 44 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 50 52 0.3 0. 0.6 0.7 51 0.6 53 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.7 47 73 74 49 82 84 -0.03 90 B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50, Gross national product in 1982 dollars. 52 Personal income in 1982 dollars *51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction 3853.7 4024.4 4106.8 4132.5 3153.7 3264.5 3371.4 3390.9 CtC,C.... A.r., bil.dol do C C C ... CCC do CCC.., do 2696.0 2794.8 2890.2 2907.9 2929.4 2922.7 .... 544.5 560.8 568.4 129.8 133.1 136.8 1669.0 137.2 141.9 143.9 1771.6 140.7 146.0 148.4 1823.2 81.0 80.5 83.6 83.7 84.4 84,1 2932.4 2933,2 568.2 566.3 569.7 568.5 0.6 -0.2 141.8 142.2 147.1 147.2 149.9 151.1 1843.9 1 8 5 7 . 6 142.0 147.0 150.9 142.4 147.6 151.1 142.3 146.9 151.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 84.1 83.7 84.1 83.8 83.7 83.4 0. 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0. -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 119.51 1 2 5 . 9 9 1 2 6 . 0 1 1 2 5 . 1 8 1 2 2 , 0 3 1 2 6 . 8 2 1 0 4 . 7 6 1 0 7 . 3 8 106.85 1 0 5 , 5 4 1 0 3 . 2 4 107.12 126.68 106.27 3.9 3.8 -0.1 -0.8 0. -0.5 -0.7 -1.2 ..........do 84.57 87.20 88.70 88.15 86.92 82.90 90.70 87.15 do 2.50 3.93 4.34 3.34 1.75 4.92 -1.56 1.88 Bil. dol., EQP ... 4 0 0 . 7 2 447 .87 4 6 0 . 9 0 4 7 0 . 9 2 4 7 6 . 1 5 4 7 5 . 8 3 4 7 4 . 2 7 4 7 6 . 1 5 57.4 57.7 52.8 50.0 45.2 Percent 43,8 46.9 44.9 -6.48 -0.3 3.44 0.4 -1.00 2.2 -1.59 1.1 8 25 96 32 3.1 3.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 NA NA 0.1 0.5 0.3 NA NA -0.2 1.6 1.7 7.1 1.8 56 57 75 54 59 55 58 -1.8 NA 12 13 Industrial Production: *47. Industrial production 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74, Industrial production, nondurable mfrs..... 49 Value of goods output in 1982 dollars C,C,C.,.. 1977-100 do C,C,C,... do C,l,L... C C C A r bil do) Capacity Utilization: 82, Capacity utilization rate, mfg3 84 Capacity utilization rate materials1 L,C,U.,.. Percent L CU do 565.0 84.4 83.9 84.0 83.6 -0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 B3, Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6. Mfrs.1 new orders, durable goods L.L.L.... 7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods l,L,l,,, *8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials 1 '. l,l,L.., 25. Change in mfrs. unfilled orders, durable goods3 1,1,1.... 96. Mfrs,' unfilled orders, durable goods5 L,Lg U ... *32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 l,L,L... Consumption and Trade; 56. Manufacturing and trade sales...,. *57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stares in 1982 dollars , 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment (vf) C,C,C.... C,C,C.... C.L.C.... C.L.U.... U,l,U.... L.C.C.... l,L,L... Bil do) do Bil. dol do 1977-100 Bil. dol do A.r., bil.dol IQ 1966- 100, 107.72 98.28 449.21 434.31 127.8 126.78 114.88 131.7 90.6 484.95 450.10 133.9 135.76 119.12 144.2 93.7 5 0 8 . 9 2 517.18 NA 511.14 5 2 6 . 7 9 NA NA 4 5 1 . 8 0 4 6 6 . 5 7 454.89 457.49 NA 139.2 138.5 139.5 138.9 139.3 139.5 1 3 9 . 6 6 1 4 2 . 1 5 1 4 4 . 4 3 143.56 144.51 1 4 5 . 2 1 120.26 1 2 0 . 7 1 1 2 2 . 7 4 121.66 1 2 3 . 0 9 1 2 3 . 4 8 142.7 144.5 154.7 95.9 90.9 92.5 89.6 95.8 92.0 -2.6 6.9 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.8 0,4 1.3 -5.2 0. NA -0.8 -3.8 6 7 64, Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: 12 Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders far plant and equipment...., *20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars..... 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods 27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods III 1967-100 l,L,L»» Number 121.2 124.1 126.5 125.5 57 ,113 5 6 , 9 4 5 59 ,119 5 6 , 8 5 6 123.2 124.4 NA 5 4 , 5 1 9 122.6 NA 122.6 NA -1.4 NA L(L,L... Bil. dol 34.67 39.85 43.05 43.51 42,71 45.99 41.71 40.42 -9.3 l.L.L... L,L,L- do... do 39.51 29.66 44.96 35.01 47.19 38.56 47.72 38.94 47.61 37.89 50.01 41.44 47.00 37.16 45.81 35.08 -6.0 -10.3 LLL... .do 3 5 . IS 40.89 43 . S 9 LL . nn LI .7 1 Lf* . in Al A1 11 1 A -ft L -3.1 1.1 -1.8 10 -2,5 -5.6 1,1 1.0 -0.2 -2,7 20 24 „/. o i i _n T *j i Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data2 Series title and timing classification1 of Percent change Annual average 1987 1988 IstQ 1989 2dQ 1989 July to Aug. 1989 Sept. 1989 Aug. 1989 July 1989 3dQ 1989 IstQ to 2dQ 1989 Sept, 1989 * 2dQ to 3dQ 1989 e .3 * 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con. Business Investment Commitments— Con.: 9. Construction contracts awardedjor commercial and industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U.... Mif.sq.ft Bil dot 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s C.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... Business Investment Expenditures: A.r,,bil. dol 69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business do construction expenditures C,Lg,Lg.... 76. Industrial production, business equipment C.lg.lL.. 1977 = 100 86. Presidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars C,Lg,C.... A.r.p bil. dol Residential Construction Commitments and Investment; 28 New private housing units started *29. Building permits, new private housing units 89 Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars -s B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment L,L,L... A.r., thousands,. L,L,L... 1967=100 ILL A r bil dol 74.43 NA NA 76.73 NA NA 389.67 430.76 459.47 470.86 481.24 404.67 453.10 478.60 488.30 157.6 165.0 168.8 144.5 493.8 511.4 455.5 501.0 1 ,620 122.9 194.8 1,488 116.0 194.1 23.7 66.89 85.52 NA 4 8 4 . 0 4 5 0 8 . 2 0 169.5 168.9 169.9 518.0 NA 169.8 5.0 0.6 1,420 102.2 1,332 105.9 1,263 105.2 -6.2 3.6 77.79 -14.0 27.9 NA -0,1 61 NA 0.4 1.3 69 76 86 30 NA NA 36 31 NA 38 2.0 0.6 2.2 NA NA NA 71 70 65 19.1 30.2 25 .10 46.9 20.34 53.0 22.31 47.1 -2.25 61.2 NA NA 10.57 81.4 11.30 27.4 NA NA 0.73 -54.0 1.48 1.79 1.22 -0.25 NA 3.37 -0.67 NA -4.04 NA Lg,Lg,lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 7 0 0 . 7 6 7 5 3 , 7 2 7 6 5 . 5 0 7 8 0 , 8 0 664.72 687.97 690.50 694.54 do Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1 0 6 . 8 2 1 1 3 . 9 3 115.36 1 1 7 . 8 5 do Lg.Lg.Lg.... NA 7 8 7 . 5 8 7 8 9 . 8 6 NA 6 9 7 . 1 2 6 9 9 , 0 3 NA 119.02 119.20 NA NA NA 0.3 0.3 0.2 NA NA NA L&L&Lg... Ratio NA L,Lg,lg.... Bi!. dol., EOP ... 2 5 5 . 1 1 2 7 6 . 5 6 2 8 0 . 2 2 2 7 9 . 4 8 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.1 11.1 24.5 1.51 2.5 -5,4 27.9 1.52 9 11 97 NA - 2 4 , 5 6 NA 14,1 1,338 104.4 187.0 1.50 3.1 NA NA 28 29 89 1,352 106.0 189.3 1.50 1.1 NA NA -1.0 -1.5 -1.2 1,517 109.5 195.6 Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 L,L,L . . .do. .. 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on 63 order in 1982 dollars (smoothed ) L,l,L . . .do. . . . do . 31 Change in mfg and trade inventories3 L,L,L 38. Change in mfr$.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and'on order^ . ILL Bil dol , . .. Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71 Mfg and trade inventories5 70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5 65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5 *77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars3 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order5 80.65 75.76 73.62 2 9 . 7 9 3 9 . 3 0 50.01 7 8 . 0 6 1 0 0 . 2 0 114.55 -5.2 -0.7 -10.9 -3.2 -3,2 -1.47 1.54 1.50 NA -0.04 NA -0.01 NA 77 NA 2 8 2 . 8 5 282.18 NA -0.2 NA -0.3 NA 78 -0.21 325.0 -0.47 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials © *99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed') 3 L,L,L... Percent U,L,L... 1967-100 L,L,L... Percent 0.29 327.0 -0.48 0.57 -0.5 -0.24 0.50 0.6 -0.01 -0.81 0.6 -0.42 -0.28 -1.6 -0.88 98 23 99 Stock Prices: *19 Stock prices 500 common stocks (u) L,L,L... 1941-43-10... 2 8 6 . 8 3 2 6 5 . 7 9 2 9 0 . 7 1 3 1 3 . 3 0 3 4 1 . 9 6 3 3 1 . 9 3 3 4 6 . 6 1 3 4 7 . 3 3 4.4 0.2 7.8 9.1 19 Profits and Profit Margins: 16 Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj 80 do in 1982 dollars 15 Profits after taxes per dollar of sales mfg 3 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L L L A r bil dol do L.L.L.... do L.C.L.... do L CL ILL Cents L.L.L.... 1977 = 100 142.0 126.8 174.0 159.6 4.8 98.7 168.9 148.0 190.7 170,1 6.0 98.7 173.6 147 .5 171.9 145.8 5.9 98.2 161.1 133.2 172.9 145.0 4.8 98.1 NA NA NA NA NA NA -7.2 -9.7 0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -0. 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA 16 18 79 80 15 26 Cash Flows: 34 Corporate net cash flow 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars ILL A.r., bil. dol x..do L,L,L... 397 .3 392.8 427 .0 419.9 426.9 416.5 412.2 401.9 NA NA -3.4 -3.5 NA NA 34 35 63 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share; 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,Lg,Lg.,.. 1977=100 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Index Lg,Lg,Lg,., 1977 = 100 *b) Percent change3 ' Lg,Lg,Lg,., A.r., percent 64. Compensation of 5employees as percent of national income . Lg,Lg,Lg,. Percent 1.36 274,5 1.09 0.31 303.3 0.45 0.86 329.5 0.91 0.05 331.5 0.49 -0.23 326.2 -0.39 -0.78 326.7 -0.23 171.9 177 .2 181.9 184.3 NA 1.3 NA 0.730 0.744 0.768 0.778 NA 1.3 NA 68 137.2 -0.9 138.3 1.5 139.6 1.6 139.2 1.7 140.2 1.5 -0.3 0.1 0.7 -0,2 62 62 73.4 73.2 73.2 73.4 NA 0.2 NA 64 -0.51 0, -0.13 -2.9 -1.3 1.16 0.63 NA -0.1 1.2 85 102 104 105 106 0.064 0.208 0.023 -0.008 107 108 NA NA -6.03 -38.21 NA NA NA NA -6.8 NA 33 112 113 111 110 NA 39 139.8 1.1 140.2 1.5 140.5 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 B7. Money and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply Ml3 102 Change in money supply M23 104. Change in total liquid assets3 105 Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars *106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars do L,L,L.... do . L,C,LL do L.L.L.. L,L,L.. Bil dol do L.L.L., Velocity of Money: 107 Ratio GNP to money supply Ml3 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23 C C C Ratio do C,Lg,C... Credit 33 112. 113 111. 110. Flows: Net change in mortgage debt33 Net change in business loans Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5 0.30 0.41 -0.17 -0.68 0.48 0.91 0.05 0.49 0.10 0.73 0.96 0.60 0.29 0.45 0.63 0.10 NA NA 0.74 0.43 0.62 0.37 0.24 0.39 631.6 604.4 603.5 602.6 602.9 632.7 604.9 622.7 2430.0 2 4 5 3 . 7 2431.0 2400.3 2430.3 2416.7 2431,3 2 4 4 2 . 8 6.078 1.319 6.707 1.429 6.771 1.421 NA NA L,L,L... A.r,, bil. dol NA NA do L,L,L... 8.30 37.84 73.57 67 .54 do L,L,L... 35.67 NA 38.75 51.79 L,L,L... A.r,, percent.... 6.1 NA 8.3 7.9 L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol 5 5 3 . 2 0 6 1 5 . 2 2 585 .93 5 4 6 , 2 8 L,L,L. Percent, EOP .. 2.47 6.289 1.350 2.49 6.499 1.406 2.39 2.30 -0.86 -0.36 -0.31 0. 0.6 0.44 0.03 NA 0.3 0.5 1.425 1.421 1.416 -0.004 -0.005 NA 29.33 NA NA NA NA 12.97 -6.06 1.8 NA NA 93.07 -18.04 41.71 NA NA 7.1 NA NA 80.10 -111.1 NA 47,77 NA 5 .3 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.09 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data3 Series title and timing classification Unit of measure 1 Percent change ,£ {'• Annual average 1987 3dQ 1989 2dQ 198S IstQ 1989 July 1989 Aug. 1889 Aug. to Sept, 1989 July to Aug. 1989 Sept. 1989 1988 2dQ to 3dQ 1989 IstQ to 2dQ 1989 LJ » & 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7, Money and Credit— Cwi. Bank Reserves: 93, Free reserves (inverted*) 3 © 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve'® L.U.U.... Mil. dol do L,Lg,U.... Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds rate5 ® 114, Discount rate on new Treasury bills3® 116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds3® 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 © 117, Yield on municipal bonds3 ® 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3® 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3® •109. Average prime rate charged by banks3® Ug,Lg,,., Percent do C.lg.lg.... ,,do Lg.Lg.Lg.... do C.lg.Lg.,.. do U.lg.Lg..., do tg,lg,Lg.... do Lg.Lg.Lg.... .do Lg,lg,Lg.,.. Outstanding Debt: 66, Consumer installment credit outstanding' 11. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding *101, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars *95, Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income5.., , 241 -1,332 756 2,357 -569 1,654 -929 . 1,833 7.57 6.67 9.96 8.98 7.68 10.49 9.18 9.32 9.44 8.53 10.12 9.19 7.46 10.91 10.97 10. 98 9.73 8.44 9.72 8.84 7.25 10.50 11.89 11.36 6.66 5.83 9,69 8.63 7.64 10.16 8.09 8.20 226 687 272 694 210 675 195 693 62 -19 15 18 9.08 7.85 9.19 8.25 7.09 9.83 10.78 10.66 9.24 7.92 9.20 8.19 6.96 9.61 8.99 7. 91 9.08 8.26 7,06 9.95 9.02 7 .72 9.29 8.31 7.26 9.94 -0.25 -0,01 -0.12 0.07 0.10 0.34 0.03 -0.19 0.21 0.05 0.20 -0.01 10.98 10.50 0. 360 -1,155 179 -1,146 93 94 0.29 -0.09 -0.40 -0.35 -0.21 -0.41 0.92 0.38 -0.65 -0,59 -0.53 -0.59 -0.16 -0.67 -1.11 -0.70 119 114 116 US 117 118 67 109 10.50 -0.48 NA 7 0 0 . 3 4 7 0 3 . 8 2 NA Lg.Lg.Lg-... Bit. dot, EOP ... 6 0 7 . 7 2 6 5 9 . 5 1 691.16 7 0 0 . 8 5 364.07 3 9 0 . 3 2 418.54 4 3 5 . 2 9 445.94 441.27 449.03 4 4 7 , 5 2 Lg,Lg,lg..,. Bil. do) 0.5 1.8 NA -0.3 1.4 4.0 NA 2.4 66 72 400.92 398.51 2.4 -0.6 2.3 2.8 101 NA 0.03 NA NA 95 125.0 0.2 126.2 112.3 111.9 102.3 112.3 120.2 112.5 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0,6 -0.7 -1.9 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.4 1.0 0,9 1.1 1.6 0. 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 2.0 0.7 0.8 -0.4 0.9 -0.4 -0,4 -1,8 -0.4 1.0 -0.5 310 320 320 322 330 335 331 332 333 334 Lg.Lg.Lg.... 377.28 386.00 396.99 391.54 NA 15.76 15.79 125.9 123.7 0.5 124.8 112.8 112.2 104.1 112.5 118.1 112.6 126.8 124.7 0.1 125.9 112.3 111.8 102.2 112.1 119.3 112.0 124.4 0.2 125.7 112.7 112.2 103.2 112.2 118.7 112.1 124.6 0. 125.9 112.0 111.4 101.2 111.9 119.0 111.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 340 NA 204.8 101.8 113.9 111.8 NA 207.6 101.6 114.3 112.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.4 -0.2 0,4 0.2 NA NA NA NA NA 341 345 346 370 358 124.00 1 2 3 . 9 6 1 2 4 . 0 2 124.04 117 .50 117 .46 117.60 117.46 6,584 6,497 6,421 6,501 2,854 2,734 2,790 3,038 2,613 2,468 2,478 2,353 1,150 1,163 1,169 1,193 5,218 5,183 5,219 5,255 0. 0.1 -1.2 2.0 -5.5 1.1 -0.7 0. -0.1 2.5 8.9 -4.7 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.3 1.7 -1.0 5.2 1.3 0,9 0.2 0.2 0. 2.0 -0.8 -2,8 1.1 441 442 37 444 445 446 447 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 0.1 0. -0.9 0. 0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 451 452 453 2.1 1*6 1.3 -1.3 1.4 1.7 NA NA -0.6 NA NA 1.6 500 501 502 510 511 512 354.19 364.95 15.57 15.69 15.91 15.86 117.4 113.6 0.4 113.5 102.8 102.6 93.7 101.5 111.7 103.6 121.3 118.3 0.3 118.2 106.9 106.3 96.0 107.1 114.3 106.2 124.5 121.7 0.5 122.8 110,9 110.1 102.3 111.3 117.3 110.4 1977-100 173.5 179.0 .....do do do do.., do 94.0 188.9 100.8 111.1 108.9 93.3 197.9 101.4 113.1 111.2 do Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent -0.05 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity Dl. Price Movements 320, 320c. 322 330 335 331. 332. 333 334 1982-100 Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©,.,. 1982-84-100. Percent., Change in CPI-U (S/A)3.. 1982-84-100. Consumer price index for all urban consumers food 1982=100 . Producer price index (PPI) all commodities ® do. PPI industrial commodities © do PPI, crude materials for further processing do PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components do PPI capital equipment do PPI finished consumer goods B2. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagrieultural payrolls 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 370, Output per hour, business sector 358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector NA NA NA NA C. labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441. 442 37 444 445. 446 447 Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Number unemployed males 20 years and over Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed both sexes 16-19 years of age Number unemployed fulhtime workers . . Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: 451 Males 20 years and over3 , 452. Females 20 years and over3 453 Both sexes 16=19 years of age3 , Millions , do Thousands do do...., do . . do Percent do do 119.86 121.67 1 2 3 . 2 9 1 2 3 . 7 9 112.44 114.97 116.90 117.29 7 ,425 6,701 6,391 6,501 2,987 2,826 3,369 2,798 2,709 2,376 2,499 2,487 1,347 l',203 1,226 1,188 5,357 5,116 5,979 5,161 78.0 56.2 54.7 77.9 56.8 55.3 78.1 57.6 55.2 78.1 57.7 56.0 77.9 57.8 55.8 A.r bil dol . do do do do do -161.4 - 1 4 5 . 8 - 1 4 7 . 5 -145.4 911.4 9 7 2 . 4 1036.2 1053.2 1 0 7 2 . 8 1118.3 1183.7 1198.6 49.7 48.8 51.3 47.5 656.1 732.6 701.6 742.6 604.6 683.8 651.9 695.1 NA NA 1191,0 NA NA 706.3 Mil dol do do 1977^100 Thousands A.r., bil. dol 30,812 31,783 30,832 30,315 11,977 NA NA NA 9,145 9,140 8,478 8,354 188.9 185.8 179.3 180.6 1,580 1,550 1,529 1,528 294.8 298.0 298.7 301.3 Mil. dol . . , do do do do do 21,176 2 6 , 8 6 8 2 9 , 2 9 4 30,833 2,400 3,114 3,337 3,548 4,428 5,830 5,549 5,823 33,854 36,746 38,549 39,624 3,471 3,209 3,680 4,470 5,896 5,942 6,078 5,643 77.9 57.9 55.2 77.8 57.8 56.5 77.9 57.8 55.6 D, Government Activities Dl. Receipts and Expenditures 500, 501. 502, 510 511, 512 Federal Government surplus or deficit3 . Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit3 State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures 517 525. §48 557, 570 564. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Mfrs ' new orders defense products ... Industrial production, defense and space equipment Employment defense products industries Federal Government purchases for national defense ,. , D2. Defense Indicators NA 3 0 , 9 9 6 2 8 , 5 3 0 NA NA NA NA NA 9,313 7,626 7 , 9 2 7 12,387 181.1 181.7 181.0 180.5 NA 1,522 1,514 NA 306.2 -8.0 NA 3.9 -0.4 -0.5 NA NA 56.3 -0.3 NA -1.7 NA -1.5 0.7 -0.1 0.9 NA NA 11.5 0.3 NA 1.6 517 525 548 557 570 564 -0.2 -14.2 -1.3 6.4 2.3 -3.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA 5.3 6.3 -0.1 2.8 21.5 -7.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA 602 604 606 612 614 616 E. U.S. International Transactions El. Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612, 614, 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports ... Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imports of automobiles and parts ..... NA NA NA NA NA NA 30,468 30,408 3,657 3,139 6,371 6,290 3 8 , 7 0 9 41,180 4,130 4,227 5 .621 5 . 4 2 6 NA NA NA NA NA NA Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data2 Series title E ;nnual averag » of 2d Q 1988 3dQ 1988 4th Q 1988 IStQ 1989 2dQ 1989 3dQ 1989 4th Q to IstQ 1989 IstQ 2dQ to 3dQ 1989 to 2dQ 1987 1988 -29.37 97.99 127,36 ...do. ...do.. . - 3 6 . 2 6 55.84 ..do 92.11 . .do. .. . 22.15 ...do. ... 16.74 do -32.37 111.54 143.91 -39.88 62.57 102.44 26.18 20.60 -27.97 132.45 160.42 -31.80 79.81 111.62 26.94 26.39 -30.59 126.80 157.39 -31.41 78.47 109.88 23.15 25.61 -28.96 131.57 160.54 -30.34 80.60 110.94 24.72 27.31 -23.66 143.63 167 .28 -32.02 83.73 115.75 33.16 28.67 -26 .86 142.17 169.03 -28.38 87.92 116.30 26.83 29,25 -27 .89 145.86 173.76 -27.72 90.87 118.58 26.93 31.95 NA NA HA NA NA NA NA NA -3.20 -1.0 1.0 3.64 5.0 0.5 -19.1 2.0 -1.03 2,6 2 ,8 A.r., bil. dol do do. A.r., dollars 4231.6 3717.9 15,385 3712.4 3013.3 2635.3 10,905 4524.3 3853.7 15,794 3830.0 3205.9 2676.6 10,970 4880.6 4024.4 16,334 3996.5 3477.8 2793.2 11,337 4838.5 4010.7 16,303 3989.2 3435.9 2773.3 11,273 4926.9 4042.7 16,388 4005.2 3511.7 2 8 0 6 .4 11,377 5017.3 4069.4 16,452 4051.0 3587.4 2835.9 11,466 5113.1 4106.8 16,567 4082.3 3689.5 2881.7 11,625 5201.7 4132.5 16,633 4113,5 3 7 4 7 .7 2 8 8 7 .6 11,622 5273.2 4158,1 16,690 4127 .9 3809.8 292 1 .5 11,726 A.r., bil. dol.. .. .. .do .... . ..do. . . . .do . do. . .. .do. . . .. ..do do 2797.4 2446.4 406.0 384.4 942.0 878.1 1449,5 1183.8 3010.8 2513.7 421.0 389.6 998.1 890.4 1591.7 1233.7 3235.1 2598.4 455.2 413.6 1052.3 904.5 1727.6 1280.2 3204.9 2586.8 454.6 414.8 1042.4 899.2 1707 .9 1272.8 3263.4 2608. 1 452.5 410.7 1066.2 910.3 1744.7 1287.0 3324.0 2627 .7 467.4 420,5 1078,4 912.0 1778.2 1295.2 3381.4 2641,0 466.4 419.3 1098.3 915.0 1816.7 1306.7 3444.1 3509.5 2 6 5 3 . 7 2 6 9 1 .2 47 1.0 4 9 0 . 4 424.9 440.0 1121.5 1128.9 918.6 909.7 1851,7 1590.1 1319.0 1332,5 659.4 639.6 652.5 634.1 6.9 5.6 699.9 674.0 670.6 650,3 29.3 23.7 750.3 715.8 7 19 .6 687 .9 30.6 27 .9 748,4 713.5 719.1 692 . 0 29,3 21.5 771.1 733.6 726 . 5 696.1 44.6 37.5 791.0 735.2 755 . 8 705 . 0 35 .1 30.2 2.2 1 .7 1.1 0. 8 9.0 6 .2 0.7 -0 .2 0.8 0. 6 872.2 761.6 366 .5 334.1 505.7 427.5 926 . 1 781.8 381.6 339.6 544.5 442.1 9689 785.1 381.3 328.9 587.6 456.2 960.1 783.0 377.1 327 .9 583.0 455.1 9 5 8 6 1011 4 1016 0 1033 2 1 040 5 799,7 806.4 805.7 810.3 775,9 367.5 406 .4 399 .0 406 . 0 403 . 1 319.8 335.5 343.6 343.9 335.9 617.0 627.2 591.0 604.9 637.4 464.2 456.1 466.7 462.5 469.9 0 5 -0,8 -1.8 -2.4 2.0 0.4 - 9 7 . 4 -112.6 -129.7 -115.7 448.6 396.5 397.1 450.9 561 2 493 8 566.6 526.9 -73.7 -74.9 547.7 530.1 621 3 605.0 -74.9 -72.6 532.5 519.7 607 5 592.3 -66.2 -74.9 556.8 531.9 623 0 606,9 -67.7 -74.1 618.6 5 87 .'5 686 3 661.6 NA 1986 ^_ F ercent chang e 1989 .S M II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667. 668. 669 622 618 620 651. 652. Balance on goods and services3 Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Balance on merchandise trade3 Merchandise exports adjusted Merchandise imports adjusted Income on U.S. investment abroad Income on foreign investment in the United States Bil. dol do . . .. . . 3.4 2.0 0.4 9.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 667 668 669 622 618 620 651 652 1.9 0,9 0.7 0.8 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.6 0 .2 0. 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.7 1 .2 0.9 200 50 217 213 224 225 227 1.7 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 1.8 0.3 2.2 0.9 1 ,9 0.5 1.0 1.3 2. 1 1,9 1.4 4.1 3.6 0.7 1.0 2.1 1.0 230 231 232 233 236 238 237 239 2 .1 2.1 1. 1 0 .6 7 .7 11.1 240 241 242 243 245 30 1 7 1.3 1.8 2.4 1,7 0.5 0 7 -0.6 -0.7 -2.2 1.6 0.7 26 0 261 262 263 266 267 16.8 18.8 4.5 3.3 1 4 -0.1 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.1 2 6 2.3 -17.1 -22,9 -1.2 0. 1 4 3.6 250 255 252 256 253 257 2 i 2 9 1 5 1 0 NA 220 0.66 A. National Income and Product Al. GNP and Personal Income 200 50 217 213 224. 225 227, Gross national product Gross national product in 1982 dollars Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars Final sales in 1982 dollars Disposable personal income Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars . . A r bil dol do A.r., dollars ". A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures .230 231 232. 233 236 238. 237 239. Total Total in 1982 dollars Durable goods Durable goods in 1982 dollars Nondurable goods Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars Services Services in 1982 dollars 240 241 242 243 245 30 Total Total in 1982 dollars Fixed investment Fixed investment in 1982 dollars Change in business inventories3 Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 260 261. 262. 263. 266. 267. Total Total in 1982 dollars Federal Government Federal Government in 1982 dollars State and local government State and local government in 1982 dollars -0.6 1.9 0.9 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment do do do do do do 752,8 709 . 1 734.1 690.8 18.7 18.3 769.6 721.1 742 . 0 696 .6 27 ,7 24.5 775.0 719.8 747 .6 700.7 27 .4 19.1 -0.3 -5 .4 of Goods and Services .. do . ... do. .. ..do. .. do.. . do.. . . ...do.. A5. Foreign Trade 250. 255. 252. 256. 253 257. Net exports of goods and services3 Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3 Exports of goods and services ... Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars. Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars .. .do ...do. . . .do.. .. . .vdo. ., do.. . .do. . -70.8 -73.8 579.7 551.4 650 5 625.2 -54.0 -55.0 605.6 569.7 659 6 624.6 -50.6 -51.2 626.1 587.5 676 6 638.7 A6. National Income and Its Components 220 280 282 284 286. 288 National income Compensation of employees Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj Net interest 290 295 292. 298. 293. Gross saving . Business saving Personal saving Government surplus or deficit3 Personal saving rate1 do do do do do do 366 5 4 3 9 7 2 6 3 9 3 3 6 4005 7 4 0 9 7 4 41 85 2 4 2 4 9 6 2 6 9 0 0 9 Q n 7 ft 9 R7 R Q 7 Q <t c i 9 Q Q 7 9 <i rjA i 7 •l 1 1 o 7 ^n 7 o ^ 9 ft 1 2 82 0 311 6 m e 11 6 14 6 16 3 13 4 15 7 11 8 16 1 9 8 282.1 298.7 325.3 340.2 328.6 316.3 307.8 330.9 •a o o n "\ Q 1 ^ 331 9 353 6 3412 6 t S 1 1 L. o 17 n e 1 4 8 NA — 26 7 -7.0 1 i 7 2 QA ft 707 — 16 9 -2.7 -51 0 NA 2 84 286 0.3 1.1 -2.4 0.8 -0,2 NA NA -2.3 NA -0 .3 290 2 95 292 298 293 9 A7. Saving . .. .do. .. 525.3 553.8 544 .6 562 0 101,8 124.9 . . .do... . -144.1 -110.1 Percent. 3 .2 4.1 ... .do.... . . .do . . . 642 ,4 593 8 144.7 -96.1 4 .2 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOF, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 1 The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified. 2 For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source-agencies are used if available. 633.4 588.5 134.0 -89.1 3 .9 3 6 6 9 . 8 647 .4 592 8 6 05 ,8 149.6 163.4 - 7 2 . 7 -121.9 4 ,6 4.3 693 .5 5 86 4 205.7 -98.7 5 .6 695.8 593 , 0 200.7 -97.9 5 .4 NA NA 196.0 NA 5 .1 7. 1 -3 . 2 25.9 23.2 1. 0 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. ' Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. 5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. CYCLICAL INDICATORS IA I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart Al. Composite Indexes July May Aug. Apt P f Dee. Nov. Apr, Feb. Nov. Mar, P P T T Jin, July July P I P Nev. T [Fdex: 1982^1001 910. Index of eleven leading kKficators hi (tote 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106) \i A/V / -10 -2 / '10 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (Series 41,47, 51, 57) 930, Index of seven lagging indicators (Series 62, 77, 91,95,101,109,120) [9] +3 ^ \J +9 ss ee 57 sa §4 as 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 S3 S3 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) In months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60, 10 OCTOBER 1989 ltd) A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. Mar. F T i. July July Nov. 1 T P T [index: 1967 =^1001 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36, 99) 916. Profitability (series 19,26,80) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104,106, 111) (Index: 1982=109 130 T 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index -9 -11 -27 -9 120- 10090 80 =J NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. BCII OCTOBER 1989 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS IA COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components Ay?}. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P Dee. T P to T P I 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) 5. Average wtekfy initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) L 8, Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dot) [MI £ 32. Vendor performance—slower deiveries diffusion index (percent) . Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bMol.) cn 53 m m m &/ m st 60 si si 03 64 m 66 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66. 12 OCTOBER 1989 A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July July F T P Apr. Feb. P T Nov. T 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100) r^u Profile'IH' niflllUTiICtUI£t& illkllllCu 0)uCTS ITI''1 !)o£ uOiI3fi durable goods industries, smoothed1 (bil. dol,) 99, Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) U,L 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10) 106, Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil, dol.) UU 83. Index of consumer expectations2 (index: 1st Q 1966-100) 1952 'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 69, 71, and 97. ItCII OCTOBER 1989 13 COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components Dec. Rtov. P T Nov. P Jan. Jstly My F T P ^J v I 41. Employees on nonagricutoiral payrolls (millions) (cZcl 51, Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (arm, rate, bil, dol) 47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100) 57, Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (bit, dol,) C,C,C Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65. 14 OCTOBER 1989 ItCII COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. P Mar, T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 91, Average duration of unemployment (weeks— inverted scale) | Lg,Lg,Ig i! 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 198L(ioilarsiratio) f\ w A , , r . . . mj\^ r/ VM^^J*^ ^ \^ ' .^ . -_ - „ Hi ^"^^^Vi ,»,* "f*^Vr ^^^^ 1.81.71.6 1.5- 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output,, te, percent) 95, Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income U.U.Lg 120. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed1 (ann. rate, percent) |Lg,Lg,Lg S 'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 73, and 97. BCII OCTOBER 1989 15 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment ,'-!in. Idty My F T P Kay. T [Marginal Employment Adjustments | 42- 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory woiters, manufacturing (hours) |L.L,LJ 41- 49- 38* 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nomupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) Tc ^Mfto •=- 3- 5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) [L,C,l| I Job Vacancies | 1.4 - 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (ratio) [y7]f]r 1J- 0.6- tl/S Help-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=100) luP Current data for these series are shown on page 61. 16 OCTOBER 1989 OYOLDCAL IMDBC/WDiS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued | Comprehensive Employment | 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establisl (arm, rate, bil. hours) fil"c~c 1104 42. Persons; engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions) s' Employees on nonagricultural p 1 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing industries (millions) n~c" 27- 25 « 60 « 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent) 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62. ltd) OCTOBER 1989 17 CYCLICAL B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued Jan. July f» T My P W»v. T | Comprehensive Unemployment | 37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale) ta- il 311- O- 43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale) fu 10- n45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—invertedjcate) 4- 91, Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) 14- 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale) 1062 S3 64 8g §6 67 ii 80 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 OCTOBER 1989 BCII B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income Dec. P Nov. T Jan. July F T July Nov. P T [Comprehensive Output and Income | 50, Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. do).) 3201- 52. Personal income in 1982 doHarsJam. rate, bil. dd) 2M0- 2800- 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (arm. rate, bit. dol.) | c c c | mm = 53, Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (ann, rate, bit dd.) | c c c | = " Currant data for these series are shown on page 63. BCII OCTOBER 1989 19 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued ton li% My P I P Ngy. P | Industrial Production | 47, Industriproductton (index: 1977 = 100) 73. industrial production, durable manufactures (index: 1977 = 100) 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures (index: 1977-100) cTt 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q (am, rate, bil. dol.) [Capacity Utilization| 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) |"L,C,U| 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) | L,C,U Currant data for that* itrlat ar*ihown on p*t«s 63 and 64. 20 OCTOBER 1989 KCII INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries [Orders and Deliveries! orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods 6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars durable goods industries (bil. doi.) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars; consumer goods and materials industries'(bil. dol.) 25, Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries /; /, (bil. doi.; MCD moving avg,-4-term) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled of rabte goods industries 32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries diffusion index (percent) 1962 63 64 ii §6 67 §8 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. ltd) OCTOBER 1989 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued DPS, Nov. P Wsv. T Mar. P T I Consumption and Trade] 480- 57, Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (fail, dot.) 400* 350300250- 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (bil.doi.) UTrTl X 75, Industrial production, consumer goods (index: 1977-100) 120- 10080460 3140J20- 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. dpi.) 100- flul] \ 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bil, dot.) foul \ 140- z 55, Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dd.) 100- so- licicl 58. Index of consumer sentiment1 (1st Q 1966=100) 100* ;/« 1062 03 04 m £ w^\,. ^ Jg ^V I/ 76 1989 tThls is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 22 OCTOBER 1989 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July Nov. Mar. P I Formation of Business Enterprises] I F T July Nov. P 11 .^x*' '*^^^ <J~ T / -,^^^__^^^ ^^'^^^^^^^^H 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) IOT = 140- 100- 60- 13. New business incorportions (thousands) 55 §© 45 ao 35 [Business Investment Commitments| 30 21 20 - 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment 1982 dollars (bil, dol,) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars so 4g 27, Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (bit, dol.) 40 35- 30 - 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (fail, dol.) |L,L,L| 10 J 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings (mil. sq. ft, of floor space; MCD moving avg.—5-term)1 10070- 1962 63 64 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. ltd) OCTOBER 1989 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Ja;i July P T fo-y P !fey. T [Business Investment Commitments—Con. I 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. doL) C 11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. do*,) [Business Investment Expenditures| 100. Expenditures in 1982 dolars for new plant and equipment, Q(an).ratebiLdoL) 61. Expenditures in current (Mars for new plant and equipment, Q (arm. rate, biL dot,) — [IT 69. Machinery and equipment sales ami business construction expenditures (am. rate,bildoL) |c,U,L 76. Industrial production, business equipment (index: 1977=100) s3 ©4 m S© 87 68 6S 7 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 OCTOBER 1989 ltd* B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Dec. P Nov. P Nov. T [Business Investment Expenditures—Cdn7| Mar. T Jan. July F T July Nov. P T , Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bii, do!.) 400- Producers' durable equipment, Q |C,Lg,C 20®150- [Residential Construction Commitments;and investment| 28. New private housing units started (ann. rate, millions) 2.2- 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index:l967=100) ^fiTTI 1! 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bif. dol.) Current data for these series are shown on page 67. BCI» OCTOBER 1989 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment | Inventory Investment 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. dd) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (aim. rate, bil. dot.; moving avg,—4-term1) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories (ami. rate, bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (bil. dol,; MCD moving avg.—4-term) l Thts is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 OCTOBER 1989 BCII B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P , Mar. T Jan. July F T July P Nov. T j|inventories on Hand and on Order) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (bjl. doJ.) [ 71, Manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (foil, dd.) 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio) 1.81.71.61.51.43Q0- 2SO- 78. Manufacturers'inventories, materiais and supplies on hand , and on order (bil. dd») [t:.:Lg,Lg| ——— 220^ 180- 140- 100- 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. BCD OCTOBER 1989 27 L INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Dee. Nov. P 7 Stow, P Mar. T .98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials ,/j: ) (percent; MCP.moving avg.—6'term) [L,L,L[ ^il ** " ~__. - 11 - Iiij iV H *fc~- -= • if ' V- - - -•. 1- - • - - - ! 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) •J * \PWK ^T >\ '. 4 ' U« ^ i/^'^jp _ . i= y {Vj\ //?' •""" - """^ ' ^ •• |L,L,L| .? ' i /\'» * ^ IV V t S & i r ^ . i/ - b* " ^" ? "" ,t "v^i^»W^v I ~" " T."~" ___{I UJ y _ V^ *4* +,*** o. ;;* <]. 4D(!« 350- 23. Spot market pnc«, raw industrial material (index: 1967-100) 3011 * ?m« 19, Stock prices, 500 cotnmofi stocks (index; 1941-43-10) 180 « 18, Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q (am, rate, ULikU.) [uJ] [Profits and Profit Margins] «^;o * ,tu * ?(SO« i^« 16. Corporate profits after tax in current doflars, Q (am.nrt8,biLdoL) i ®§ 69 7@ 71 72 73 74 7B 7i 77 7© 79 8© ©1 §g 1 This series Is smoothed by an autoregressive-movlng-avorage filter developed by Statistics Canada. 'Beginning with data for June 1981, this Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for those series are shown on page 69, 28 OCTOBER 1989 BCD B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Jan. July July F T P to. T Dec. P Nov. T 11 Profits andProfit IVIargins-fCon. 80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. do).) Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dpi.) |2. Ratto, corporate domestic profits after tax tojcorpgratedomestic income, Q (percenf*" ~ ---—*• — - 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) |U,L,l| ^ 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations,' Q (cents) |L,L,L 7 <3 ^wA/ V±XJ I. 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977=100) r [Cash Fiows] 35, Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q _. (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q 1962 63 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. OCTOBER 1989 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Jan. July My F T P Nav. T [Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share I 63. Unit labor cost, business sector., Q (index: 1977-100) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of jross domestic product in 1982 dollars, mxifinandal corporations, Q (dollars) Le.Ln.Le ' ~ 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1977=100) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent) 1962 S3 64 OB 66 (37 68 7© 71 72 8@ 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 30 OCTOBER 1989 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit P Jan. July Nov. Mar. Dec. Nov. T P F T T July Nov. T P 85. Change in money supply Ml (percent; MCD moving avg,~6-term) . ;it |l'H-JI< _... ^ . _.-f_ vft^AJ^^^^ !J-^ , —«- ^..L^^—— j . i i pr*;' f • t^~ r ~^=|--i^^i~^™--^™SSl^^^ jft , ... fei^ ....._ •=* u f f 51 ^ t'-" —^J^-. ^^^ *=— — 102. Change in money supply M2 (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) • • • - >«" f^^fe*-,?, -yt=^£^B ; w4/ -&*U~* 104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) L,L 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml, Q (ratio) cZc Velocity of Money] 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 Current data for these series are shown on page 71. BCII OCTOBER 1989 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Des. Now. Now. Mar. T P T P | Credit Flows | jjn inly F T July Now. P T 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance compares (ami, rate, bil. doJ.) 142, Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.; ! MCO moving avg.—ftemi) |"[~[~[ 113. Net change in consumer instalment credit (ann. rate, bil. dot,; MOD moving avg,—6-term) f]T[ 111. Change in business and consumer credt outstanding (ann. rate, percent) 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets, Q (ann, rate, bil. dot) §4 ©§ 60 67 68 69 7© 71 Current data for thate series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 32 OCTOBER 1989 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T | Credit Difficulties | *. 1! 14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.inverted scale; MCD moving avg —6-term) L „ mn 2 1 a 1 JSrf Wife! U> i j tl., SL\[ I T ]f; * » Ulf li 111. T ! ! i) T f i' f - —~H 39. Percent of consumer installment toans delinquent 30 days and over (percent—inverted scale) |LLL| ^^^ 2.0-j Jflf 2.4-1 ^^^:i 93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale) -,U,U -7^ 0 -2- -!<= 0= 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bit, dolj 19S2 ©3 S4 SS 6^ SJ @S 80 81 S2 83 84 35 86 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. !!€!» OCTOBER 1989 33 CYCLICAL B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July Nov. F P T July P to. T I Interest Rates] 15- 119, Federal funds rate (percent) 1312II- Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (percent) '"IC.Lg.Lgl"" " " " ' 116, Yield on new issues of Wgh-gradiKorpoirate bwids (percent) f ' 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent) 118, Secondary market yields onTHB'^ggesTperce'rit)' "j/ Le.Lg.Lef ZHIII V/ 1962 63 S4 SS 0® g? iS 6S 1 Currant data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 OCTOBER 1989 BCII INDICATORS B | CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Dec. Mov. P T Nov. P (War. T Jan, July P I July P Nov. T [Interest Rates-^Con. 109. Average prime 67. Bank rates on short-term business Joans. Q (percent) [Outstanding Debt) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (bildol.) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (bil. dd.) 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. dol.) Lg,Lg,Li 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent) 69 §3 70 71 72 73 74 7S Current data for these series are shown on page 73. BCII OCTOBER 1989 35 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes P T 950, Eleven leading indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—_) 100-1 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo, span—, 1-mo. span-*—) 952. Seven lagging indicator components (6-mo, span—^ 1-mo, span—-) o«i 961, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (9*mo. Span—^ 1-mo. span—-) 1601 962. Initial claims for unempJoyment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. sparu—, 1-mo. span— QJ 963, Employees on private nonagricutoiral payrolls, 349 industries (6-mo. span^», 1-mo. span—) 1062 S3 ©4 m m i? §S 74 7S 76 77 §7 @g Current data for theto series are shown on page 74. 36 OCTOBER 1989 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued Jan. July July F T P Dec. Nov. P T j i jj . Nov. T ! 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries 1 (9-mo, span—, 1-rtk). span—-) 965. Newly approved capital appropriations In 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (4-Q moving avg**** 40- 966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. spaa__, 1-mo. span—-) 10© ^ 9i67. Spot market pfices,Ii3 raw industrial (9-mo. SpanJL-, 1-mo. span—) rniferis 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 39-82 industnes (9-mo. span-tL, 1-mo. span—) 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-0 span) 67 1962 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. BCII OCTOBER 1989 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued Jan. July P T July P .ten. Jaly fttov, T P I July Km, P T Actual Anticipated | Percentrising| [Percent rising] 970, Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span) (a) Actual expenditures 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 AAV. ,\ M WM3 §921 (b) Later projections 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 (c) Early projections 80- 70- 60- soo 40- 971 New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 90 - 100- SO- 90- 70- 972, Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1 70- 978, Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 1977 78 7i 80 81 81 83 84 85 iS S7 S8 I97J 78 79 §© SI ©t S3 84 §§ ii S7 SS 1980 i This Is a eopyrlghtod series used by permission; ft may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on survey* of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for thoso series are shown on page 76, 38 OCTOBER 1989 ItCII CYCLICAL C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change Dec. Nov. P T Wov. P Mar. T Jan. July F T July P Nov. T 1-month spans —3-month spans —• [ Percent change at annual rate] 910c. Composite index of eleven leading indicators 30 J 920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators -f 930c. Composite index of seven lagging indicators 47c, Index of industrial production SOc. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span) usr V w +10 -10 48c. Employee hours in nonagricuftural establishments 51c. Personal income tess transfer payments in 1982 dollars + 20+ 100- V -10- =201962 63 64 ©i @© @7 ©@ @9 7© Jl 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. ItCII OCTOBER 1989 39 IMPORTANT IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income Jars, July JuSy P I P Dee,, Nov. F I (ftov, T 200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (am. rate, fail, del.) 223. Persona) income in currant dollars (am. rate,fail,dol.) \ 224, Disposable personal income in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, fail, dol.) mm4960- 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, fail, dol,) • 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate; bil, dol,) | mm- - Lnsposabie personal income in 198 dollars, Q (aim, rate, bit. dol,) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thoos. dol.) LLL rer capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.) 77 78 84 SB Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 OCTOBER 1989 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Dee. P Nov. T Nov. P Jan, July July Mow. P T P T | Annual rate, billion dollars (current)) Personal consumption expenditures— 1962 6: Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81 ItCII OCTOBER 1989 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMY A I _ NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Jan. July My F T P feu, T [Annual rate, bion dolars (current) | Gross private domestic investment— 240. Total, Q —/ 245. Change in business inventories, Q Annual rate, bion dolars (1982)| 30, Change in business inventories, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 81. 42 OCTOBER 1989 ltd) A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. 1% F T Juiy Nov. P T | Annual rate, billion dollars (current)] iZOO-i Government purchases of goods and services- noo1000900 « 800700- 500 - 300- 200- 266, State and local government, Q I Annual rate, billion doUars (1982)| 1000T 267. State and local government, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 81. BCII OCTOBER 1989 43 IMPORTANT ECONOMIC IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Dee. Nov. Annual rate, bion doiars (current)! 659 - goo - 303 4SO400- a^fl - 252. Exports of goods and services, Q 253, Imports of goods and services, 0 100- 250, Net exports of goods and services, Q !)() -100-1SO- Annual rate, btton dollars (1982)) 257. Imports of goods and services, Q 256. Exports of goods and services, Q 255, Net exports of goods and services, Q 1962 S3 S4 68 6S 67 6i 69 70 72 73 Current data for those series are shown on page 82. 44 OCTOBER 1989 BCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT— Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components Jan. jy!y P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, bion dollars (current) [ 220. National income, Q Compensation of employees, Q 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital Cbnsumption adjustments, Q J" ~ 288. Net interest, Q 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments^ 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, 0 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. BCD OCTOBER 1989 45 IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Annual rate, bion doiars (current) 49- 298. Government surplus or deficit, Q 3 S4 m m ©J SS it 1 as m BJ ss Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 OCTOBER 1989 KCII OTHER A I ! NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income Dec. Nov. P T I | Percent of GNRI !. I Nov. Mar. P T Jan. July P T July P Wov. T || 235, Personal consumption expenditures, Q 69 J 268. State and local government purchases j qf goods andjervices^ 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q 10- 248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q 249, Residential fixed investment, 0 247. Change in business inventories, 0 251. Net exports of goods and services, Q [Percent of National Income] 64. Compensation of employees, Q 70- 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 10- 283, Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 289. Net interest, Q 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q 1962 63 64 ©5 i© <S>7 5- 0- 68 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. KCI» OCTOBER 1989 47 OTHER IMPORTANT B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart 61. Price Movements J3J, ,"j;!y P I My Nov. P I P I Index: 1982-1001 T P 310c. Implicit price deflator for poss I Percent change at annual rate | <~— national product (1 Qipn) 310. Implicft price dflftetor for gr national product, _311c. Fixed-weighted price Index, gross domestic business product "" (1-Qspan) "°'f ^ICM" 311. Fixtd-wefcWed price index, gross domestic 1 Producer price indexes— | 6-month spans] 330c, All commodities Producer price indexes— 330. All e 335c. Industrial commodities 331c. Crude materials for further processing 335, Industrial commodities 332c, Intermediate materiais, supplies, and components 331. Crude material for further processing ~7\ ^ ~ Iwtermeilate materials dna componenis V-2L 333c. C^jttal equipment 334, Finished consumer foods 334c. Finished consumer goods 1977 78 If S© ii it S3 84 SB 83 §4 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84,85, and 86. OCTOBER 1989 BCII B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued Dec. Wov. P T Jan, July P I Jufy P Nov. T Consumer price indexes— 120110100- 70- 320. AJj urban consumers^ 69- 40- 320c. All urban consumers (6-month span) | Percent change at-annual rate] +20- 322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month spar) Chart B2. Wages and Productivity I index: 1977 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisor^ workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1 V v , . t;. _ -ET^T; ^a, ^ -. 10080 - L Average hourly earnings of production or on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars) 346. Real average hourly compensation, ali employees, norttarm business sector, Q v "* •"^— — • • 345. Average hourly compensation, all nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars) 1962 63 64 80 SI 82 33 34 85 86 B7 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. , lt€l» AW OCTOBER 1989 49 IMPORTANT IE( B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart 62. Wages and Productivity—Continued tfei:.. ikil* 1—2^—2!LJ change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1— n c ange I l 340c, Current-dollar earnings aj ,- -H>-. -. .r , * J * /; . in>^lW Change in average hourly compensation, aJI employees, nonfarm business sector, Q— 4 345c. Current-dollar compensation 4 Jfe 4-ouarter spans -A,,- ,= •. - * £pS*\~^ j 4-10 —I-quarler spans (ann. rate) 346c. Real compensation A , 1-quarter spans (ann. rate) Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 343. Average first-year changes, Q (arm, rate) X 349. Average changes over life of contract; Q (ann. rate) I index: 1977 ^1001 | Productivity | 358, Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q X 370. Output per hour, all persons, btmncss sector, Q ' " 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q ^ ^ ^ , ^-*• 1-quarterspans (arm,rate) ? 1 v / \ " . . . . . - . , , .^.--.-. nZ^vNtA JU« J-W* ^W ! > yM ' Z±li!^i^Vtf^ ^ ^ " 63 64 v CIB a© <sj ©i m y© ^51 . iX^ - = / i = » - A | Percent change | /* A jj\ 45 .\pr -, '/ V ,. '' .. _^ __ .. ' ._ ._ y' __ „„ , "4-quarter 4-quarte spans „,_. __ _ .... 1 Adjusted for overtime (tn manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 50 OCTOBER 1989 BCD 15 O^raiTTANT ECONOMIC fWSUflEi C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components Dec. P Stov. T Jan. July T July P Nov. T 441. Civilian labor force (millions) 442. Civilian employment (millions) Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)— ^ajes 2Q years an(j over 453, Both sexes 16-19 years of age 452, Females 20 years and over Number unemployed (millions)— 37. Persons unemployed 445. Females 20 years and over 444, Males 20 years — and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (millions) ItCII OCTOBER 1989 51 MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures Be:;, Nav. P T Mar." T Now. P [Annual rate, bion doiars (current) 502, Federal Government qpmfihirts, Q 501. Federal Government receipts, Q 500. Fed0ni Government surplus or deficit, Q $11, State and local government receipts, Q 511 State and local government expenditures, Q 510. State and (oca) government surplus or deficit, Q 1962 S3 ©$ ©^ ©§ ©? §§ 72 73 74 7B 76 Current dotn fer those series ore shown on page 90. 52 OCTOBER 1989 KCII D! I £) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Dec. P Wov. T Jan. July P I July Hw. P T [Advance Measures of Defense Activity ~£ 3©- gross obligations incurred ng avg.—6-term) || Defense Department prime contract awards (bil. dei; MCD moving avg.—6-term 12®- 543, Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil, dol) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 71 72 73 74 75 76 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. BCD OCTOBER 1989 53 OTHER IMPORTANT GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Now. P Mar,. T |Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity! 557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment 559. Manufacturers inventories, defense products (bil. doi.) 561, Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (bil. do).) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (bil. doi.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. doi.) 1962 63 64 6S @6 67 Si Current data for those series ore shown on page 91. 54 OCTOBER 1989 BCD *3T iC©W©K ME GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Dec. P nw. T Nov. P Mar, T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T [Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con.| 570. Employment, defense products industries (millions) 2.01.81.61.41,21.0- Defense Department personnel (millions)— 3.53.0- 577. Military personnel on active duty 2.52.0- 1.5- 578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment j 1.0- 400350300- [National Defense Purchases| 250200- 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.) 150- 100- 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent) 19S2 ®3 ®4 ®S ®S §7 ©@ 88 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 91. KCII OCTOBER 1989 55 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart El. Merchandise Trade Im, My Inly F T P te. T 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (to!, dd) -A* $04. Exports of domestic ajncuttural products (fail, dd,) ^-606. Exports of nonelectrical midiinery (ML <W.) 612. General imports (bil doi.) 614. Imports of petroleum arid petroleum products (bil. dd) bib. imports of automootm and parts mi dol.) 77 78 7S S0 81 82 S3 §4 §§ Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 OCTOBER 1989 KCII ©TIM I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements Wov. T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T || Annual rate, bion dollars | W//A Excess of receipts [;77:.1 Excess of payments 7501 650§5i450- Goods and services- aao667. Balance on goods and services, Q 25Q- 150- 622, Balance on merchandise trade, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 93. BCD OCTOBER 1989 57 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart Fl. Industrial Production lm. July P I July Kov. P I Iffiex: 1977=1001 Industrial production— [index: 1977=100| Industrial production— 722, United Kingdom 110- Hi! - 723. Canada 130 - 110- v^-*^ ; © yg) §© ill §2 §3 Current data for these series are shown on page 94, 58 OCTOBER 1989 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices Jan. July P July Nov. P T T Chart F3. Stock Prices Jan. July F T July Nov. P T I Percent change at annual rate Consumer prices— 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1977 78 79 80 81 82 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. OCTOBER 1989 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Q COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month 1987 910. Index of eleven leading indicators (series 1,5,8,19,20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 930. Index of seven lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109, 120) 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index l (1982=100) (1982 = 100) (1982-100) (1982=100) 2 2 2 Revised Revised Revised Revised Leading indicator subgroups 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29) l 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 99) 916, Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, HI) (1967-100) (1967 = 100) 108.9 (NA) 104.4 104.6 105.3 119.3 120.8 121.5 148.9 147.0 145.4 121.3 121.3 122.9 144.5 144.1 145.6 (1967-100) (1967 = 100) 2 January , . . , February March 136.8 137.6 138.1 119.3 121.0 121.0 112.1 110.9 110.7 106.4 109.1 109.3 April May June ,,. 138.3 139.2 140.6 121.1 121.2 121.5 110.7 110.8 111.0 109.4 109,4 109.5 105,3 106.0 106,7 July August September , 142.0 143.3 142.9 122.4 123.0 123.1 110.8 110.7 111.7 110.5 111.1 110.2 107.1 106.4 106.6 October , , . . . . , . . November December . . . . . . . 142.3 140.3 139.7 124.9 124.6 126.1 111.8 112.1 111.8 111.7 111.2 112.8 107.2 107,4 H>108.2 121.7 118,6 118.3 147.1 146.8 146.6 January February . . , . . . , . March .... 139,3 141.0 141.4 125.2 126.0 126.7 113.4 113.9 114.3 110.4 110.6 110.8 107.1 106,7 106,5 119.0 119,5 119.9 146.9 147.9 149.0 April May June 142.0 141.8 144.0 126.9 127.2 128.2 114.6 114.5 114.8 110.7 111.1 111.7 105.5 105,6 105.9 119.5 118.9 120.0 July August September 143.0 144.1 143.7 128.6 129.0 129.0 114.5 115.1 115.2 112.3 112.1 112,0 105.5 105.5 105.6 119.9 119.5 (NA) October , November . , December . . 144.0 144.1 145.1 130.4 130.3 131.1 115.0 116.4 116.8 113.4 111.9 112.2 105.1 104.9 105.6 0)146.0 145.6 144.7 131.8 132.0 132.0 118.1 119.3 120.1 111.6 110.6 109.9 (NA) 145.8 144,2 144.0 132.8 132.5 132.8 124.2 i>126.0 124.7 144.5 144.2 145.4 1988 D151.7 150,7 151.1 150,3 150.1 147.4 146.9 146.6 (NA) 1989 January February . . . . . . . . March ... April May June , July August . . . September . . . . . . . 144.0 144.7 P145.0 132.6 133.9 [H) 133.9 3 119.3 120.3 [H)120.5 111.3 110.1 110.2 120.0 120.3 "119.7 110.5 111.3 pill, 9 October November December NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§>, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |H): Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pates 10 and 11. 'These series reached high values before 1987: series 940 (116.1) in January 1984 and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. S 0xeludes series 57, for which data are not available. ''Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 60 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year and month L, L,L L, C, L I.C.L 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (Hours) Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies L, Lg, U 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Hours) (Thous.) L, Lg, U 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (Ratio) U,C,C 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (Ann. rate, bil. hours) (1967-100) 1987 January . . . February . . March 40 9 41 1 41 0 3.6 3 6 3.7 355 350 338 0.512 0.531 0.572 136 140 150 187 54 188 59 188 56 April May June 40.6 41.0 329 325 325 0.583 0.601 0.614 149 153 152 187.66 189.72 189.97 .... 41 0 3.5 3.8 3 7 July , . August September . 41 0 41 1 40 6 3 8 3 8 3 7 321 299 293 0 626 0 663 0 661 153 161 158 190.41 191.22 188.29 October November December 41.2 41.2 41.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 294 300 311 0.669 0.682 0.662 162 [H>162 155 192.23 192.77 192.93 January . . February . . March 41 1 41 0 41.0 3 9 3 7 3.8 348 314 303 0.652 0.673 0.691 153 156 158 193.12 194.48 194.35 April May June 41.2 41.1 41.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 299 305 294 0.701 0.700 0.711 157 160 156 195.81 195.44 196.43 July August September 41 1 41 0 41.1 3 9 3 9 3.9 321 298 290 0.714 0.700 0.688 159 160 153 197.24 196.77 197.53 October November December 41.2 41.2 41.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 E>290 297 301 E>0.735 0.716 0.731 161 158 161 198.76 198.14 199.16 41.1 41.1 3.9 3 9 E>4-0 296 303 318 0.691 0 729 0 733 156 155 151 200.31 200.32 200.33 3.9 3.8 3.8 299 312 328 0.723 0 707 0.667 159 147 202.10 9nn AR 201.37 3.9 338 316 320 0.687 rO.681 pO.660 150 r!47 p!46 |H>r202.54 r201.59 p202.48 1988 1989 January February March .. 41 0 April May June E>41.3 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.9 July August September p41.0 r3.7 p3.8 1 R? October . . . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. *Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. OCTOBER 1989 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Employment— Continued u,c,c Timing Class 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Year and month {Thous.) C,C,C 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (Thous.) L,C,U 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (Thous.) Comprehensive Unemployment U, Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (Percent) L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed L, Lg, U L, Lg, U Lg, U, Lg 43. Unemployment rate 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State1 programs (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) 91. Average duration of unemployment (Weeks) Lg, Lg, Lg 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) 1987 107 823 108,066 108,238 100,798 101,015 101,254 24,473 24,532 24,551 60.28 60.39 60.43 7,904 7,848 7,804 6.6 6.6 6.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 14.9 14.5 15.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 April May June 108 566 109 180 109 06^ 101,582 101 777 101 956 24 573 24 617 24 616 60 56 60 90 60 72 7 605 7 578 7 360 6.4 6.3 6.2 2 5 2 4 2 4 15,0 14.8 14.9 1.8 1.7 1,7 July August September 109 377 109 890 109,704 102 293 102 525 102,683 24 701 24 759 24,794 60 83 61 00 60.88 7 271 7 226 7,112 6 1 6 0 5.9 2 3 2 3 2.2 14 2 14 3 14.2 16 16 1.6 October November December 109,998 110,320 110,528 103,213 103,470 103,791 24,896 24,966 25 021 61.01 61.09 61.19 7,204 7,067 6,961 6,0 5.9 5.8 2.1 2.1 2.E 14.0 14.1 14.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 n 7QQ 24 935 25 033 25,098 fil ?Q fil ^fi 110,948 103 970 104 414 104,682 61.24 6 QRO 6 QQ? 6,807 5 8 5 7 5,6 2 3 2 2 2.2 14 2 14 1 13.8 1 4 1 4 1.4 111 473 111 293 111 880 104,901 105,091 105 561 25 161 25 179 25 265 61 49 61 31 61 58 6 668 6 800 6 523 5.5 5.6 5 4 2 1 2 1 2 1 13.5 13.8 13 2 13 1 3 1 3 111 974 112 061 112 194 105 768 105 954 106 207 25 323 25 303 25 313 61 54 61 60 61 64 6 624 6 797 6 614 5 4 5 6 5 4 2 1 2 1 2 0 13 5 13 5 13 5 1 3 1 3 1 3 112 335 106 475 6 518 5 3 January , February March .... 1988 January February , March ..., ... April May June July August . September .... October November December . . . . . . . . m n?^ ei DC 6 CC-3 C A 6,554 5.3 2 0 2 0 2.0 13 4 1? fi 12.8 1 9 61.83 25,626 25,629 25,646 62.13 62.16 62.27 6,716 6,328 E>6,128 5.4 5.1 i>5. 0 2.0 2,1 2.1 12.7 12.1 12.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 108,101 108 310 108 607 25,671 oc £70 62.22 62 ? 2 rn\ en .35 ojJH/Di 6,546 6 395 5.3 5 2 2.1 G)2 0 2 1 12.7 11 8 r!08 767 r!08 855 [H)pl09,064 r25,669 [H)r25,696 p25,588 1fl£ A9A 107,097 25 384 pc Acn 25,513 61 69 ?flQ 112,816 113,411 113,630 113,930 107,442 107,711 107,888 114,009 114,102 |H) 114, 445 114,240 114 290 114,199 m 1 3 1.2 1989 January February March April May June July August . . , . . . . September 9 jr C/l O 62 26 62.28 62.16 6 CC-I 6 497 6 421 6,584 C -5 5 2 5 2 5.3 2 2 2 1 2.1 [u\ 11 , 11 Urj/ii 12 0 11 3 11.4 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18. M)ata exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 62 OCTOBER 1989 1,2 11 fuN W 1i .no 1 2 1 i 1.1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^9 PRODUCTION AND INCOME Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Industrial Production Comprehensive Output and Income C,C,C 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars C,C,C (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 52. Constant (1982) dollars 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol,) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Personal income 223. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C,C,C C.C.C 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C,C,C 47. Index of industrial production (1977 = 100) C.C.C 73, Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (1977 = 100) C, L,l 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1977 = 100) crctc 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1987 January February March 3,78316 3,640.8 3,680.2 3,699.8 3,109.1 3,129.4 3,132.8 2,650.6 2,670.7 2,675,2 542.4 541.6 544.6 126.2 127.1 127.4 129.3 130.8 131.5 132.7 132.9 133.7 l,622!e April May June 3,823!5 3,718.5 3,734.1 3,745.4 3,132.7 3,132.6 3,129.0 2,674.8 2,670.5 2,670,9 538.5 540.3 540.4 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.9 131.4 132.0 134.6 135.7 136.9 I,645i9 July August September 3,872!s 3,770.5 3,798.7 3,817.4 3,144.7 3,152.4 3,152.3 2,685.9 2,695.7 2,696,5 541.3 544.3 547.0 130.6 131.2 131.0 133.5 133.8 133.7 138,5 138.8 138.6 l,679!i October November December 3,935!6 3,894.3 3,886.8 3,944.9 3,205.2 3,188.5 3,236.2 2,748.8 2,733.2 2,779.3 549.4 551.8 552.1 132.5 133.2 133.9 136.8 136,7 137.3 138.1 139.6 141.3 1,728!5 January February March 3,974!8 3,921.9 3,944.2 3,979.5 3,209.4 3,225.0 3,240.6 2,741.2 2,755.9 2,767.1 551.3 553.9 561.5 134.4 134.4 134.7 137.9 138.4 138,8 141.4 141.1 141.7 1,746!? April May June 4,0l6!7 4,007.1 4,023.3 4,049.4 3,244.6 3,244.6 3,260.4 2,773.4 2,776.2 2,791.2 558.8 558.0 561.5 135.4 136.1 136.5 139.7 141.5 141.7 142.3 142.1 142.6 1,76?!9 July August September 4,042!7 4,079.8 4,094.2 4,118.6 3,271.7 3,275.4 3,276.5 2,802.0 2,805.0 2,808.2 562.4 560.9 562.8 138.0 138.5 138.6 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.6 145.1 145.3 I,782i3 October November December 4,069!i 4,180.4 4,168.9 4,206.3 3,312.5 3,298.2 3,314.7 2,843.3 2,828.6 2,845.3 569.0 565.5 563.9 139.4 139.9 140.4 144.6 145.2 145.7 146.3 146.7 147.1 l,789!i January February March 4,106!8 4,273.1 4,319.5 4,360.7 3,346.2 3,377.2 3,390.9 2,868.0 2,897.0 2,905.5 566.1 566.7 E>572.3 140.8 140.5 140.7 146.2 145.9 145.8 148,5 148.1 148.6 1,823*.2 April May June 4,132'.5 4,387.1 4,396.3 4,417.5 3,390.3 3,384.4 3,398.1 2,908.2 2,902.8 2,912.8 566.4 563.4 565.3 141.7 141.6 r!42.0 146.9 147.1 r!47.4 149.6 149.5 r!50.5 1,843 '.9 [H>p4,158!i r4,443.8 r4,456.4 {H>p4,469.2 r3,407.8 r3, 420.1 E>p3, 422.1 r2,922.7 r2,932.4 E>p2,933.2 r566.3 r569.7 p568.5 142.0 B>142.4 p!42.3 r!47.0 E>rl47.6 p!46.9 150.9 r!51.1 i>pl51.3 E>pl,857!6 1988 1989 July August September . . . . . . . October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. OCTOBER 1989 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued E MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process , . , , . . , , PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued Capacity Utilization Timing Class . . . . . . L.C.U 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing Year and month Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES Orders and Deliveries i,c r u 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials 1, L,l Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 6. Current dollars (Percent) (Percent) L.L.L (Bil. dol.) 7. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) 1,1,1 1,1,1 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries1 (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L, U, U 96. Manufacturers1 unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) L, L, L 32. Vendor performance— slower deliveries diffusion indexl (Percent) 1987 January February . . . . . . . . March 79,6 80.0 80.3 78.7 78.7 78.7 97.34 102.40 104.78 89.79 94.46 96.40 79.68 84.09 84.78 -3,28 -1.26 1.19 367.42 366.16 367.35 51.5 51.2 51.9 April May , . June 79.1 79.3 79.8 107.64 107.92 108.77 98.93 99.01 99.70 83-. 76 .... 80.2 80.4 80.8 83.48 85,66 4.55 5.26 4.24 371.90 377.16 381.40 52.8 54,0 56.8 July .... August September . . . . . . . 81.5 81.5 81,3 80.6 81.1 81.2 109.94 106.99 109.68 100.40 97.44 99.34 84.02 83.84 85,98 6.04 2.58 1.30 387.44 390.02 391.32 58.9 60.3 61.5 October November December . . . . . . . 82.0 82.2 82.6 82.1 82.9 83.6 112.02 111.96 113.19 101.28 100.96 101.61 86.81 85.89 86.86 3.71 3.67 2,01 395.04 398.71 400.72 62.2 64.9 62.7 January . . . . . . . . . February . . March . . . . . . . . 82,7 82.6 82,7 83.0 82.3 82.4 113,07 114.16 113.06 100.86 101.56 100.41 83.26 85.42 85.34 3.94 4.33 0.32 404.66 408.99 409.31 62.4 61.3 56.9 April May . . . . . . . . . . . June 82.9 83.3 83.3 82.9 83.0 83.2 116.84 115.37 125.44 103.39 101.74 110.23 85.73 87.82 87,78 4.32 0.62 8.92 413.62 414.24 423.16 56.6 65.6 July August September 84.0 84,0 84.0 84.4 84.3 84.1 116.11 122.81 119,32 101.67 107.25 103.58 85.15 87.58 87.98 2.99 4.94 1.29 426.15 431.09 432.38 59.0 57.7 55,1 October November December . . . . . . . 84.3 84.4 84,4 84.7 84.9 122.79 123.04 |H>132.15 106.50 106.25 |H>113.63 87.86 89.81 [H>92.68 4.35 3.16 7.97 436.73 439.90 447.87 54.6 61.6 52.6 84.3 84.1 84.6 84.0 83,7 128.48 124.11 125.38 109.81 105,71 106.61 90.76 89.02 86.32 4.90 3.18 4.94 452.77 455.95 460,90 54.0 53.3 51.2 84.5 84.3 84.2 83.8 r84.4 rS3.6 129.37 123.52 125.14 110.01 r!04.68 105.87 89.69 r87.82 86.93 6.04 0.56 3.42 466.94 467.50 470.92 53.2 49.3 47.5 84.1 r83 . 7 r83.8 p83.4 r!22.03 r!26.82 p!26.68 r!03.24 r!07.12 p!06.27 r82.90 r90,70 p87.15 r475.83 r474.27 [H^p476.15 46.9 44.9 43.8 .... 1988 [8)85.1 59. 2 1989 January February March (H}84.7 , April May June July August September , r84.1 p83,7 r4.92 r-1.56 pi. 88 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21. 1 Thesc series reached high values before 1987: series 25 (9.31) in March 1984 and scries 32 (67.5) in November 1983. 64 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Timing Class C.C.C C,C,C 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 57. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol) C, L, C 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (1977 = 100) u, L; u C, L, U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month 0 Q| CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued 59. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) L,C,C U, L L, L,L 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment 1 2 © 12. Index of net business formation (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (IstQ 1966 = 100) (1967-100) 1,1, 1 13. Number of new business incorporations 1 (Number) 1987 January February March 424,210 441,092 441,073 419,538 433,469 431,581 125.5 126.4 126.7 117Q,819 124,126 124,455 109,294 114,507 114,179 119!s 90.4 90.2 90.8 118.1 120.5 122.0 55,348 58,495 60,248 April May June 442,281 445,174 448,931 431,209 432,439 433,700 125.5 127.3 127.2 125,353 125,520 127,263 114,478 114,317 115,274 129*3 92.8 91.1 91.5 120.7 119.8 120.3 57,471 56,226 57,613 July August September 450,906 455,157 460,280 434,938 437,381 440,943 128.9 129.4 127.7 128,110 130,390 129,427 115,937 117,574 116,391 145.'8 93.7 94.4 93.6 120.4 121.5 122.8 57,330 57,650 57,568 October . November December 460,066 459,261 462,059 439,739 437,546 439,273 129.0 129.4 129.8 128,235 128,541 129,870 115,112 115,180 116,267 132!6 89.3 83.1 86.8 121.8 122,8 123.2 55,504 56,681 55,226 January February March 462,173 466,052 474,260 439,102 442,538 448,078 131.2 131.3 131.2 130,364 131,846 133,797 116,709 118,036 119,249 143! 6 90.8 91.6 94.6 124.0 124.1 125.4 56,108 56,475 60,656 April May June 475,218 478,467 486,226 446,585 447,726 451,956 131.9 132.7 133.0 133,077 134,003 135,060 118,081 118,482 119,311 145^7 91.2 94.8 94.7 122.7 124.3 123.7 54,670 58,046 55,620 July August September 486,289 r491,892 r492,442 449,198 r452,694 r450,929 134.2 135.0 134.8 135,741 r!35,800 r!35,715 119,490 rl!9,227 rl!8,632 14CK9 93.4 97.4 97.3 123.3 124.5 124.2 r56,915 59,472 55,778 October November December 498,846 501,400 506,186 455,745 456,937 459,688 136.4 136.8 138.2 137,842 139,529 139,189 120,071 121,435 120,719 146! 6 94.1 93.0 91.9 124.6 123.2 125.5 56,557 54,530 58,516 January February March 511,881 507,328 507,555 458,846 454,219 451,603 138.5 138.7 138.4 140,040 139,428 139,516 120,724 120,300 119,756 142!7 97.9 95.4 94.3 r!25.5 r!25.9 E>rl28.0 58,499 58,724 60,133 April May June 517,745 518,088 515,695 458,774 457,465 456,223 139.5 139.2 H>rl39.a 141,413 142,543 142,500 120,351 120,902 120,865 144 .'5 91.5 90.7 90.6 r!25.0 r!25.6 r!25.9 55,245 57,738 r57,536 r511,144 E>p526,789 (NA) r451,795 Dp466,57?. (NA) 138.9 r!39.3 p!39.5 r!43,55S r!44,511 E>Pl45,212 r!21,657 r!23,093 H>pl23,480 ®p!54.7 92.0 89.6 95.8 r!24.4 r!22.6 p!22.6 p54,519 (NA) 1988 • 1989 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23. ^hese series reached high values before 1987: series 58 (101.0) in March 1984 and series 13 (65,318) in December 1986. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. OCTOBER 1989 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process . . Business Investment Commitments Timing Class . , . , , . L, 1,1 I, I, I Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month 10. Current dollars (Bit. dol.) 20. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) U,L L.L.L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries 24. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) U, Lg, U UC.U 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings1 2 27. Constant (1982) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) Square meters of floor space 3 (Millions) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) C, lg, Lg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol,) 1987 January February March . . 31.78 31.99 31.99 35.45 36.31 36.21 27.20 27.28 26.88 31.40 32.18 31.73 82.42 73.52 77.97 7.66 6,83 7.24 zi!ii April May . Jung 33.63 34.90 35.47 38.58 39.88 40.28 28.73 30.63 29.75 34.29 36.16 35.30 79.93 78.82 83.17 7.43 7.32 7.73 32!26 July August . . . . . . . . . September , , , , , , . 37.49 35.01 34.52 42.82 40.28 40.00 32.28 29.85 29.39 38.32 35.82 35.57 83.00 83.56 84.70 7,71 7,76 7,87 29^56 October November December 36.60 35.44 38.27 41.11 40.29 42.96 30.22 30.66 33.03 36.45 36.19 38.44 82.21 76.89 81,64 7.64 7.14 7.58 35^91 38.31 39.54 36.82 43.68 44.64 41.78 33,87 33,82 31.92 39.89 39.79 37.65 77.27 91.15 75,85 7.18 8.47 7.05 30^85 38.95 36.29 40.68 44.85 41.88 46.20 33.75 31.52 35.46 40.45 37.85 41.78 71.02 71.69 75.36 6.60 6,66 7.00 4o!69 41.18 44,39 r39.82 46,51 49.91 r44.12 36.21 38.81 34.86 42.35 45.25 39.99 79.51 75.38 73.37 7.39 7.00 6.82 40^38 38.65 39.98 43.67 43.43 44.53 47.97 34.62 35.82 39.43 40il6 41.07 44.44 70.06 69.90 78.53 6.51 6.49 7.30 45 ',28 January February . , . , . . . . March 45.03 41.48 42.64 49.10 44.81 47.67 40.35 37.19 38.14 45.24 41,31 44.02 78.61 70.87 71.37 7,30 6.58 6.63 April May June 44.55 41.90 44.07 r48.87 r46.30 r48.00 40.39 37.29 39.15 45,48 42.54 43.98 69.66 75.44 78.18 6.47 7.01 7.26 [H)r45.99 r41.71 p40.42 [HV50.01 ' r47.00 p45.81 E>r41.44 r37.16 p35.08 Dr46.30 r43.33 p41.50 77.79 66.89 85.52 7.23 6.21 7.94 69!i7 74! 64 74! 55 78!06 1988 January February . March ,. April May . . , June July August September October November . . . . . . . December 78!H 87^46 9U57 100.* 20 1989 July August September i)p5o;6i i>pll4^5 (NAJ (NA) October November December . . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. l This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, H.W. Dodge Division. 2Series 9 reached its high value (93.19 square feet and 8.66 square meters) in September 198S. -^Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^f FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg Expenditures for new plant and equipment Year and month Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures 61. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 100. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, Lg, Lg 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, Lg, U 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (1977 = 100) C, Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C 28. New private housing units started 1 Gross private nonresidential -fixed investment in 1982 dollars 86. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 87. Structures 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,L,L 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permitsl (Ann. rate, thous.) (1967-100) L,U 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1987 January February March 377!o9 380 '.62 381.31 391.14 387.97 138.6 141.7 141.9 430.9 12o!l 3l6'.7 1,840 1,787 1,715 134.8 134.7 135.9 197.' 3 April May June 380 ! 08 383!55 394.77 393.41 402.62 142.1 141.7 144.2 445 '.6 117'.7 32?! 9 1,622 1,607 1,583 127.7 119.6 121.4 197*.8 July August September 393'.05 40l'.61 412.10 410.61 424.92 145.6 145.6 146.3 472^8 125*.5 347 '.3 1,592 1,587 1,685 120.9 120.5 120.7 192!l October November December 403!% 41K07 416.91 417.04 423.21 148.7 148.3 149.8 472.7 125.7 347 !o 1,535 1,659 1,391 115.4 116.2 107.3 191.'9 January February March 413'.34 417.'63 432.80 432.06 438.93 151.2 152.4 153.3 483.' 6 IZl'.B sei.'s 1,391 1,511 1,528 100.8 115.2 119.6 189 .'l April May June 427 '.54 43K35 445.06 454.15 456.32 154.6 156.9 158.1 497!8 122.5 37b\3 1,576 1,392 1,463 114.1 115.5 118.4 194.'2 July August September 435!61 436! 04 458.73 463.23 463.95 159.3 160.2 160.8 501.*6 123^6 378 '. 6 1,478 1,459 1,463 113.6 116.9 114.2 195il October November December 442 !li 433*.51 463.94 462.23 465.80 160.2 161.2 162.6 492.7 121A 37K3 1,532 1,567 1,577 121.7 120.3 121.1 198 '.1 459^47 451*. 35 475.20 475.31 485.30 163.8 165.0 166. 3 soi'.o 12l".i 379".9 1,678 1,465 1,409 118.5 111.9 r487.01 r487.06 r490.84 167.8 169.1 r!69.6 511.4 118.1 393.2 1,343 1,308 1,406 106.4 107.4 104.3 189.' 3 r484 . 04 fj)p508.20 168.9 [H>169.9 p!69.8 E>p518*.6 piisis (H>p398'.2 rl,420 rl,332 pi, 263 102.2 105.9 105.2 p!87!6 . 1988 1989 January February March April May June [H>470'.86 July August September a48l!24 October . November December a483.*04 E> 463! 10 a47l!ii (NA) 195*.6 98.1 a470.*25 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. 'These series reached high values before 1987: series 87 (151.4) in 2d Q 1985, series 28 (2,260) and series 29 (158.5) in February 1984, and series 89 (200.3) in 4th Q 1986. OCTOBER 1989 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS |U INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Inventories on Hand and on Order Inventory Investment Timing Class l,l,l 30, Change in business inventories in 1982 dollarsl Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1,1, 1 1,1,1 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars 1 Smoothed 2 Actual (Ann. rate, btl. dol.) (Ann. rate, btl. dol.) 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,U 38. Change in mfrs.1 inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Current dollars (Bil. doi.) 70. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars1 L, Lg, Lg 78. Mfrs.( inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Ratio) (Bil. dol.) 1987 16.15 -2.36 1,92 64.1 21.3 35.1 -1.06 -0.59 32.38 0.48 9.83 liia 14.81 47.64 35.65 16.59 23.99 32,16 e!a 31.80 -3.77 44.10 35.53 29.80 22.64 56.*6 75.32 41.99 51.71 31.30 46.18 55.07 3,24 34^3 37.39 1.82 659.20 660.97 663.90 644.61 644.61 645.70 103.41 103.02 103,23 1.54 1.49 1.50 236.33 235.74 237.56 26.7 69.3 34.0 2.82 1.09 2.71 666.12 671.89 674.73 645.85 648.83 649.82 102.94 103.23 102,57 1.50 1.50 1.50 240.38 241.47 244.17 32.7 44.9 2.76 1.75 2.20 677.45 677.78 681.52 651.04 649.93 652.18 103.84 104.66 104.04 1.50 1.49 1.48 246.94 248.68 250.88 90.8 64.5 75.5 2.18 1.02 1.04 689.09 694.47 700.76 657.41 660.63 664.72 105.04 105.86 106.82 1.50 1.51 1.51 253.06 254.08 258.11 44.33 31.55 22.94 39.3 46.2 36.6 3.81 0.25 1.32 704.03 707.89 710.94 666.50 669.06 670.20 107,42 108.16 108.08 1.52 1.51 1.50 258.92 259.18 260.49 22.64 22.33 15.38 13.19 13.68 43.8 47.0 72.1 2.52 2.83 2.21 714,59 718.51 724.52 671.42 673.13 675.32 108.09 108.43 109.02 1.50 1.50 1,49 263.01 265.83 268.04 -8.81 39.50 35.16 14.34 14.86 19.81 1.43 ie»r91,5 r79.7 729,79 r?37.41 744.05 674.74 678.75 681.92 109.82 110.78 111.62 1.50 1.50 1.51 269.47 273.45 275.93 IB.3 -17.99 23,03 59,40 20.42 16.14 17.44 -6.1 38.5 83.5 -0.42 -0.84 743.54 746.76 753.72 681.28 683.35 687.97 112.07 112.69 113,93 1.49 1.50 1.50 277.82 277.41 276.56 January February March 24.*S 18.66 -6.58 -20.08 27.59 28.76 10.58 73.0 39.0 29.4 1.74 0,31 1.61 759.80 763.05 765.50 691.10 690.75 690,50 115.38 115.66 115.36 1.51 1,52 1.53 278,30 278.61 280.22 April May June r4.37 rl9.S6 -4.83 r-5.18 T3.26 70.0 81.0 32.5 0.14 19ii -0.77 -0.12 771.34 778,09 780.80 691.15 693.00 694.54 115.92 117.05 117.85 1.51 1.51 1.52 280.36 279.59 279.48 r9.88 p4.54 rlO.57 pll.30 r3.37 p-0.67 r787.58 K>p789.86 r697.12 |H)p699.03 rl!9.02 i)pll9.20 1.54 p27.4 [H>282.85 p282.18 January February . . March . . . . April May June IB.l . . . July August September October November . . . . . . . December ..... 3.9 1988 January February March ..... 4,68 April May June zi'.s July , August . September .... .... October November . . . . . . . December 37^5 4.88 63.3 [H)3.98 2.48 1.90 1989 5,66 July August September October November December . p36!2 (NA) (NA) r81.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) pi. 50 (NA) (NA) .. See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 26, and 27. l Thesc series reached high values before 1907: series 30 (83.4) in 1st Q 1984, series 36 actual (92.33) in February 1984, series 36 smoothed (79.84) in May 1984, and series 77 (1.58) in March 1986. 2This series is a weighted 4-terra moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month o£ the span. OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS £g| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices Timing Class L.L.L 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials1 Year and month (Percent) U.L.L 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, materials2© (1967 = 100) L,L,L L, L , L 99. Change in sensitive materials prices1 Smoothed 3 Actual (Percent) (Percent) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © (1941-43-10) Profits and Profit Margins L.L.L U,L Corporate profits after tax 16. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) 18. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,C,L L.C.L Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj * 79. Current dollars 80. Constant (1982) dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) U,L 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income1 (Percent) 1987 January February March 0.44 0.53 0.79 252.8 247.2 246.3 -0.25 April May June 0.43 2.25 1.69 July August September October November December 264.51 280.93 292.47 isi.'i 117.'8 164.' 9 isi.'a 4.'<5 0.76 1.27 1.07 0.92 253,8 272.6 276.4 2.09 2.30 1.11 0.98 1.20 1.31 289.32 289.12 301.38 139*.4 124 '.7 169!s 155.*5 4^8 1.66 1.47 3.31 284.2 288.3 292.4 1,43 1.10 0.72 1.39 1.40 1.32 310.09 329.36 318.66 14s!3 133!6 180 '. 3 166 !i 5!6 2.65 1.06 0.00 294.6 292.0 0.30 -1.28 13U9 18CK9 164^9 4!? 0.49 280.16 245.01 240.96 148!9 293.1 1.13 0.70 0.41 0.90 0.89 1.11 292.5 288.9 292.3 0.78 0.36 1.19 0.30 0.24 0.33 250.48 258.13 265.74 159.9 141.*8 189 .'i 171.'? 5.*2 April May June -0.22 -0.22 0.00 297.3 301.6 0.80 0.41 1.25 0.45 0.51 0.65 262.61 256.12 270.68 166.'9 147.' 3 187,' 6 i67!e s.'i July August September 1.47 -0.22 -0.22 309.0 309.9 306.4 0.05 0.15 0.65 0.58 0.44 269.05 263.73 267.97 173!2 E>15i!8 189!7 168^6 b\4 -0.36 0.36 0.22 305.0 309.7 0.27 0.40 0.54 277,40 271.02 276.51 E)17b\6 isiii H>196!9 172^3 5^3 317.2 1.96 0.94 1.52 0.36 0.71 324.7 329.3 334.6 1.41 1.40 0.69 0.75 0.95 1.04 285.41 294.01 292.71 173.'6 147.' 5 i/i.'g 145.'8 5*.2 0.21 D335.0 330.5 -0.80 -0.89 -0.66 0.84 0.49 0.13 302.25 313.93 323,73 i6i!i 133!2 172 '.9 145!6 4^7 -0.98 -0.45 -0.23 -0.47 -0.48 331.93 346.61 E>347.33 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) ... 1.12 1988 -January February March . .. -. . October November December 309.5 -0,14 -0.25 - 1989 January February March .. April May June July August September rO.78 r-0.84 329.1 326.7 325.0 327.0 '•-0.78 . .. -0.21 0.29 5 October November December 327.1 0.45 6 (NA) 349.55 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. lr These series reached high values before 1987: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983, series 99 actual (3.21) in Aug. 1983 and smoothed (2.09) in Nov. 1983, series 22 (6.9) in 1st Q 1984, and series 80 (190.3) in 3d Q 1985. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. "See footnote 1 on p. 70. 5Average for Oct. 2-25. 6Average for Oct. 4, 11, 18, and 25. OCTOBER 1989 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS . . . . . . . ^ PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued Minor Economic Process . . . . . . . . Timing Class . . . . . . Year and month Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins—Continued U, L. L L,L,l 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp, domestic income l 2 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Percent) (Cents) L, L, L 26, Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector 2 (1977-100) L, U Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share 1,1,1. Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations 35. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977-100) (Dollars) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data (1977-100) Actual data as a percent of trend (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income a (Percent) 1987 January . . . . . . . . . February . March . . . . . . . . . . §.t 4.*5 98*. 1 383.2 3?s!6 17l'.2 0.73i 138.6 138.0 138.3 101.0 100.6 100.8 April . . . . . . . . . . . May June . . , . s!6 98*.8 394.1 389 !i 171.3 0.727 137.2 136.9 136.6 100.0 6.2 July . . . . . . . August . . . . . . . . September e!§ s.'s 99^3 404^7 400 ! 8 171.6 0.726 135,6 136.6 138.0 98.8 99.6 October . . . . . . . . . November . . . . . . . December e!i 4.4 98*. 6 4Q?!6 403 !i 173*.5 0.734 99.8 99.6 73!7 ?i!5 73^3 100.6 137.1 137.3 136.8 100.1 99.9 73'.i 99.7 1988 eii E>6 § .2 98*.9 419.0 412!g 173i5 0.732 137.2 137.7 139.2 100.0 100.4 101.5 73.2 6.3 B.9 98.' 3 426^2 419^9 176.9 0.740 138.1 137.7 138.5 100.7 100.4 100.9 n.z July August . . . September eii s.g 98.' 6 431.1 E>424!9 178.1 0.746 137.7 137.6 138.4 100.4 100,3 100.9 73.3 October November . . . . . . . December e'.a s!g 99'.i E>43i'.6 42K8 180.2 0.756 139.9 138.9 138.2 102.0 101.2 100.7 73.1 January February March s!i 5.*9 9B.2 426^9 416.5 181.9 0.768 138.4 139.2 DHI.I 100.9 101.5 E>102.8 73! 2 April . . . . . . . . . . . May June 5.2 p4.8 98.1 412.2 401.9 139.2 139.2 r!39.3 101.5 101.5 rlOl.5 73A (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) r!39.8 r!40.2 P140.5 rl01.9 rlQ2.2 January . . . . February . . March April May June . , 1989 July . . . August September (NA) H>184.3 (NA) H>0.778 (NA) pioa.4 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 29 and 30. *lVAj inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 These series reached high values before 1987: series 81 (8.6) in 3d Q 1985, series 26 (99.8) in 3d Q 1985, and series 64 (74.0) in 4th Q 1986. 70 OCTOBER 1989 (NA) CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^H MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Money Timing Class Year and month L,U 85. Change in money supply Ml1 L,C,U 102. Change in money supply M2l (Percent) (Percent) Velocity of Money U,L 104. Change in total liquid assetsl (Percent) L,U 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (Bit. dot.) U, L 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (Bil. dol.) c,c,c 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml1 (Ratio) Credit Flows C, Lg, C 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (Ratio) L, U U,l 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 112. Net change in business loans (NA) 97.22 -19.66 -16.76 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1987 0.68 0.16 0.38 0.65 0.01 0.12 0.69 0.27 0.00 632.7 631.0 630.7 2,449.7 2,439.5 2,432.0 5.992 1.287 1.301 1.306 1.40 0.20 -0.71 0.40 0.04 0.09 0.25 0.66 0.39 H>636.8 635,9 629.8 2,431.2 2,423.8 2,419.7 1.307 1.312 1.315 -5.75 6.014 July August September 0.20 0.38 0.31 0.29 0.47 0.55 0.13 0.59 0.72 629.5 629.2 629.5 2,420.5 2,421.6 2,428.7 6.126 1.320 1.324 1.323 -22.62 -29.33 28.15 October November December 1 26 -0 36 -0.30 0.60 0.07 0.18 rO 74 rO 21 rO.06 635.3 630.9 628.0 2,435.2 2,428,6 2,429.0 6.182 1.342 1.338 1.356 29.58 -8.88 34.34 0.81 0.22 0.49 0.71 0.69 0.63 rO.84 630.4 630.8 631.8 2,436.0 2,448.8 2,456.0 6.230 1.338 1.337 1.340 63.36 73.18 19.81 April May June 0.97 -0.01 0.70 0.71 0.32 0.44 rO.88 634.7 632.0 634.4 2,461.2 2,458.9 1)2,461.7 6.260 1.340 1.341 1.344 94.69 15.76 28.42 July August September 0.77 -0.01 0.17 .0,36 0.19 0.17 0.98 0.41 0.18 636.7 634.5 633.0 2,460,5 2,457.2 2,451.5 6.293 1.349 1.351 1.357 33,38 14.70 -21.98 October November December 0 22 0.15 0 47 0.24 0.56 0 33 0.46 0.57 0 79 631.4 630.8 631.7 2,445.6 2,453.4 2,453.6 6,372 1.374 1.363 1.370 36.38 15.43 80.89 January February March -0.51 0.14 -0.14 -0.12 0.12 0.29 rO.09 rO.28 rO.75 625.0 623.4 619.6 2,437.0 2,430.2 2,425.8 6.499 1.394 1.407 1.417 89.27 91.34 40.09 April May June -0.41 -1.25 -0.39 rO.08 rO.54 r-0.08 rO.27 612.8 601,8 598.5 r2,410.6 r2,390.8 2,399.4 6.707 1.424 1.431 E>1.431 52.54 E)rl23.64 r26.44 July August September rO.91 rO 05 rO.74 pO.43 r602.6 602.9 p604.9 2,416.7 r2,431.3 p2,442.8 p6.7?i rl.425 rl.421 pi. 416 r!2.97 r93.07 p-18.04 October November December 2 January February March April May June 2.48 10.79 1988 January February March 0.69 rO.67 0.64 0.38 1989 pO.49 -0.28 rO.51 0.96 rO.60 pO.63 (NA) 1.17 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. L The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 85 (2.66) in December 1986, series 102 (2.67) in January 1983, series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 107 (7.034) in 4th quarter 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984. 2 Average for weeks ended October 2, 9, and 16. OCTOBER 1989 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS . . . . . . . EQj MONEY AND CREDIT- - Continued Minor Economic Process .. , Timing Class . . . . . . U, I 113. Net change in consumer installment creditl Year and month (Ann. rate, bit. dot.) L.L.L 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding1 (Ann. rate, percent) Bank Reserves Credit Difficulties Credit Flows— Continued 1,1,1 110. Funds raised by private nonfmancial borrowers in credit markets1 (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L,L,L 14. Current liabilities of business failures1© (Mil. doi.) L,U 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over1 (Percent) Interest Rates L.U.U L, Lg, U 93. Free reserves1© 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve1© (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate1© (Percent) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills1© (Percent) 1987 January February March -19.58 19.61 27.43 3.6 1.5 3.8 409,432 48.20 P0.78 66.72 5.5 5.4 8.1 62.99 36 . 48 61.64 4 8 2 8 10 1 25.76 14 66 63.38 6 9 5 0 April May June July . , August . . September ... October November December 3,220.7 3,586.0 3,249.5 2.43 2.40 2.28 633,288 3 222 5 2 488 5 3 332 4 2 36 2 43 2 35 566 400 2 036 1 1 968 2 2 967 2 2 34 2 37 2 35 603 688 3 004 2 1 663 5 3,985.0 2 66 2 54 2.47 3,894.1 4,625.5 3,291.7 2.44 2.32 2.19 3,065.6 2 316 5 2 453 4 2.31 717 684 594,880 4,582.8 2,291.2 r3 555 5 2.45 2.38 16.2 488 656 388 580 556 5?7 6.43 6.10 5.45 6 13 5 56 993 1 035 776 6 37 6 85 6 71 5 76 5 75 5 69 672 647 940 6 58 6 73 7 ?2 5 78 6 00 6 32 186 298 252 943 625 111 7 ?9 6 69 6 40 6.77 5.80 213 737 1,082 396 1,752 6 83 5 90 6.58 6.58 5.69 5.69 -166 44 414 89 385 -147 5.59 R 81 1988 January February March , , 86.20 65.77 57.44 April May . . June . . . . 40.96 46.15 64.86 July August September 16.45 65.51 22 68 October November December 30.91 63.37 61 13 7.2 10.6 520,240 6.7 11.3 7 4 8 3 8.3 11.1 r4 3 r7.4 r6.7 628,072 rlO 5 -823 -2,134 -1 538 -2 195 2,993 2 678 3 083 6.87 5.92 7 09 7 51 6 27 6 50 3,440 3,241 o o^q 7.75 8.01 6.73 7.02 2 42 -2,433 -2,288 -1 867 pi, 825. 5 p2,047.5 p2 026 8 2.62 2.48 -1,237 -1,742 2 49 -676 2,299 2,861 1 716 8.30 8.35 Bjf. 8 HP p2, 100.0 p2, 316.1 p2 948 0 2.32 2.42 1,662 1,487 1 813 9.12 9.36 8.29 8.48 2 39 -517 -333 -856 9 85 8 83 p6 145 6 pi 873 2 p2 186 0 2 35 2 34 2 30 -1 513 2 289 1 720 1 490 9 84 9 81 9 53 8 70 8 40 8 22 p4,073.4 p2 960 0 pi 751 2 (NA) 9.24 q n? 7,92 7 Q1 7 79 2R an 37 KQ 2 32 2 34 o iq 7 ?1 7.34 7.68 1989 January February March 64.52 45 18 April May . . . June 32.99 50.65 32.60 July August . . September r-6.06 p41 71 (NA) October , . November December (NA) (NA) 11.8 585,932 7 ? 8.1 rll 1 546 276 r4,4 rl.8 n7 1 (NA) (NA) -689 -585 272 r210 p!95 694 675 p693 8 QQ See note on page 60, Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34. lf rhe following scries reached their high values before 1987: scries 113 (132.08) in September 1985; .series 111 (23.2) in June 1984, scries 110 (897,756) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 £-7,328), series 94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Avcrage for weeks ended October 4, 11, IB, and 25. ^Average for weeks ended October S, 12, 19, and 26. 72 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^g MONEY AND CREDIT- Continued Minor Economic Process Outstanding Debt Interest Rates— Continued Timing Class Year and month U, Lg, Lg C,Lg,Lg U, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate1 bonds © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury1 bonds © 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond1average © (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields onFHA 1 mortgages © 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans1© (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate chargedx by banks @ 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) (Mil. dot.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 101. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (Percent) 1987 January February March 8.59 8.58 8.68 7.60 7.69 7.62 6.61 6.61 6.66 8.79 8.81 8.94 ?!46 7.50 7.50 7.50 570,415 572,049 574,335 366,883 365,245 363,848 365,058 361,629 359,534 15.67 15.54 15.52 April May June . . 9.36 9.95 9.64 8.31 8.79 8.63 7.55 8.00 7.79 10.02 10.61 10.33 8.24 7.75 8.14 8.25 578,352 580,084 585,644 363,369 363,576 364,475 356,594 354,363 353,859 15,55 15.53 15.64 9.70 10.09 10.63 8.70 8.97 9.58 7.72 7.82 8.26 10.38 10.55 11.22 8!20 8.25 8.25 8.70 590,893 593,933 599,070 362,590 360,146 362,492 350,329 346,961 349,558 15.67 15.64 15.69 10.80 10.09 10.22 9.61 8.99 9.12 8.70 7.95 7.96 10.90 10.76 10.63 8^47 9.07 8.78 8.75 601,217 602,439 607,721 364,957 364,217 367,079 350,583 349,536 352,283 15.44 15.50 15.41 9.81 9.43 9.68 8.82 8.41 8.61 7.69 7.49 7.74 10.17 9.86 10.28 s!37 8.75 8.51 8.50 614,904 620,385 625,172 372,359 378,457 380,108 355,984 361,123 362,353 15.68 15.73 15.71 April May June 9.92 10.25 10.08 8.91 9.24 9.04 7.81 7.91 7.78 10.46 10.84 10.65 8*.49 8.50 8.84 9.00 628,585 632,431 637,836 387,999 389,312 391,680 366,729 365,551 365,373 15,69 15.72 15.75 July August September 10.12 10.27 10.03 9.20 9.33 9.06 7.76 7.79 7.66 10.66 10.74 10.58 9*.75 9.29 9.84 10.00 639,207 644,666 646,556 394,462 395,687 393,855 365,581 366,377 364,343 15.67 15.75 15.70 October November December 9.86 9.98 10.05 8.89 9.07 9.13 7.47 7.46 7.61 10.23 10.63 10.81 io!ii 10.00 10.05 10.50 649,132 654,413 659,507 396,887 398,173 404,914 366,809 367,657 371,481 15.53 15.70 15.68 January February March 9.92 .10.11 10.33 9.07 9.16 9.33 7.35 7.44 7.59 10.69 10.88 11.16 10*.97 10.50 10.93 11.50 682,020 687,397 691,162 412,353 419,965 423,306 373,170 379,030 379,647 [H>15.96 15.91 15.85 April May . June 10.11 9.82 9.24 9.18 8.95 8.40 7.49 7.25 7.02 10.88 10.55 10.08 11.89 11.50 11.50 11.07 693,911 698,132 700,849 427,684 r437,987 r440,190 380,841 r386,914 r390,239 15.82 15.88 15.87 9,20 9.08 9.29 8.19 8.26 8.31 6.96 7.06 7.26 9.61 9.95 9.94 10 '.78 r391,545 r441,271 r700,344 10,98 10.50 E>p703,820 [H)r449,027 [H> MOO, 917 p398,508 p447,524 (NA) 10.50 r!5.76 p!5.79 (NA) ... July . . . August . September .... October November December 1988 January February March 1989 July August September 2 October . November December 9.02 2 8.16 3 7.22 HO. 50 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. 'The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984; series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended October 6, 13, 20, and 27. 3Average for weeks ended October 5, 12, and 19. ''Average for October 1 through 30. OCTOBER 1989 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Q DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 950. Eleven leading indicator components (series 1,5, 8, 19,20,29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106) 1-month span 1987 January February . . . . . . . . March April May June t2) 40.9 54.5 r63,6 69.1 54.5 81.8 July August September . . . . . . . October November December 72.7 r68.2 r45.5 45.5 22.7 31.8 6-month span C2) r72.7 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 952. Seven lagging indicator components (series 62, 77,91,95, 101, 109, 120) 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span C2) C2) Revised 2 Revised 2 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 78.6 35.7 42.9 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.5 80.0 17.5 57.1 50.0 35.7 42.9 64.3 71.4 1-month span 9-month span 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas ' 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 349 industries 1-month span 9»month span 1-month span 6-month span 67.5 72.5 85.0 88.2 35.3 52.0 69.6 82.4 78.4 55.6 59.3 61.0 67.3 65,8 64.8 10.0 92.5 45,0 77.5 42.5 77.5 73.5 78.4 15.7 80.4 94.1 90.2 61.9 58.6 59.7 66.8 67.6 69.5 1-month span 63.6 81.8 100.0 81.8 r68.2 r50.0 r75.0 72.7 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 72.7 63.6 100.0 100.0 r62.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 35.7 71.4 57.1 64.3 71.4 57.5 72.5 25.0 57.5 67.5 87.5 64.7 84.3 37.3 92.2 59.8 62.7 65.3 60.6 63,0 73, § 73.?, 75.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 85.7 57.1 28.6 92.9 100.0 37.5 50.0 60.0 86.3 23.5 85.7 90.0 40.0 27.5 27.5 62.7 80.4 67.8 64.5 60.7 71.5 71.8 72.2 r63.6 36.4 r36.4 36.4 75.0 100.0 5.9 71,3 1988 January . , . February . . March , . . . . , , , , 31.8 45.5 r62.5 63.6 r59.1 r86.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 85.7 71.4 42.9 78.6 85.7 85.7 37.5 32.5 62.5 42.5 65.0 32.5 80.4 29.4 60.8 45.1 41.2 33.3 60.7 63.5 63.0 69.9 70.2 71.5 April . May June 63.6 r36.4 rBl.8 77.3 86.4 72.7 r?5.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 42.9 57.1 42.9 57.1 57.1 77.5 30.0 57.5 20.0 42.5 57.5 94.1 29.4 31.4 23.5 86.3 96.1 62.8 61.3 67. <? 73.9 73.9 69,1 31.8 54.5 45.5 59.1 63.6 45.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 71.4 57.1 35.7 78.6 71.4 52.5 27.5 80.0 62.5 47.5 32.5 70.6 20.6 76.5 66.7 82,4 25.5 63.6 58.0 55.4 70.2 74.6 73.5 r40.9 77.3 50.0 36.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 64.3 85.7 50.0 85.7 52.5 45.0 22.5 45.0 35.0 60.0 72.5 100.0 100.0 70.6 40.2 37.3 68.6 63.9 68.2 64.6 73.9 74,5 75.8 54.5 36.4 r75.0 100.0 100.0 78.6 85.7 71.4 100.0 70.0 55.0 40.0 32.5 32.5 r30.0 29.4 41.2 45.1 43.1 30.4 17.6 68.3 60.5 61.0 75.1 69.5 68.2 21.4 57.1 42.9 71.4 42.9 85.0 r32.5 92.2 r45.1 p47.1 "40.0 70.0 56.9 58.2 55.6 59.7 r66.0 r63.5 p58.5 r3Q.O r45.0 p57.5 64.7 July . August September . . October November December r40.9 40.9 68.2 87.5 75.0 75.0 100.0 5.9 1989 January February March 72.7 22,7 18.2 r22.7 50.0 75.0 April May Jung 72.7 18.2 40.9 18.2 100.0 r31.8 p50,0 25.0 75.0 July . . August . . . September 50.0 45.5 p36.4 r62.5 100.0 3 50.0 75.0 75.0 3 100.0 100.0 57.1 57.1 "30.0 85.7 78.6 5.0 P 52.5 7.8 r35.3 p76.5 rS5.6 r56.3 p47.4 October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: -1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6° month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available, Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. ''Figures are the percent of components declining. 2 See "Now Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3 Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. Excludes series 77 tind 95, for which data are not available. 74 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued ^J DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and month 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1-month span 9-month span 1 -quarter span January February March 41.2 70.6 47.1 91.2 73.5 89.7 41 April May June 54.4 48.5 61.8 80.9 73.5 82.4 82 67.6 44.1 58.8 82.4 73.5 73.5 59 52.9 44.1 55.9 76.5 73.5 73.5 65 January February March 47.1 55.9 41.2 73.5 85.3 76.5 44 April May June 57.4 55.9 55.9 73.5 70.6 79.4 65 July August September 41.2 67.6 50.0 79.4 79.4 82.4 41 October November December 52.9 64.7 64.7 61.8 58.8 82.4 53 January February March 55.9 35.3 44.1 54.4 66.2 52.9 p47 April May June 72.1 35.3 45.6 r55.9 p41.2 966. Industrial production, 24 industries 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials @ 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks1® 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies 2 © 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 91.7 89.6 75.0 84.6 42.3 30.8 88.5 96.2 80.8 98.8 95.2 83.3 87.8 92.7 92.5 *74 61 31.2 64.6 60.4 75.0 87.5 83.3 61.5 88.5 57.7 73.1 96,2 80.8 39.3 46.3 93.9 97.5 97.5 62.5 *76 'oi 50.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 91.7 95.8 73.1 76.9 61.5 88.5 88.5 76.9 81.3 95.0 10.0 12.5 10.0 *78 *63 70,8 62.5 50,0 83.3 79.2 83.3 53.8 46.2 50.0 53.8 69.2 69.2 0,0 0.0 17.5 '58 75.0 79.2 66.7 53.8 12.8 "54 52.1 54.2 70.8 83.3 75.0 70.8 42.3 34.6 65.4 69.2 61.5 61.5 75.0 88.8 37.0 91.7 87.5 79.2 57.7 65.4 65.4 61.5 61.5 61.5 37.2 51 79.2 60.4 58.3 pbi 83.3 60.4 56.3 79.2 83.3 91.7 42.3 46.2 38.5 75.0 75.0 66.7 91.7 70.8 68.8 64.6 29.2 60.4 75.0 62.5 4-Q moving average (4-quarter span) 1987 .... .. July August September . . October November December ' 8.8 8.0 *77 1988 (NA) 5.1 7.7 *80 52.6 '?7 97.4 84.6 91.0 92.3 57.7 53.8 65.4 30.8 28.2 69.2 79.5 64.1 84.6 72 42.3 69.2 76.9 57.7 69.2 61.5 84.6 23.1 74.4 97.4 78.9 86.8 *72 46.2 53.8 53.8 100.0 94.7 92.3 39.5 100.0 r62.5 69.2 65.4 57.7 r66.7 r79.2 p83.3 53.8 38.5 38.5 53.8 61.5 89.5 78.9 81.6 97.4 97.4 3.8 1989 July August September r35^3 64.7 p55.9 (NA) 79.2 50.0 r85.4 r45.8 r66.7 p35.4 38.5 50.0 46.2 3 October November December 3 46.2 (NA) 97.4 76.3 94.7 39.5 38.5 See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. ^ased on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries through March 1988, on 39 industries through February 1989, and on 38 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc. 3 Based on the average for October 3, 10, 17, and 24, OCTOBER 1989 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries Year and quarter a. Actual expenditures b. Later projections c. Early projections (1-Qspan) (1-Qspan) 21.4 52.4 71,4 59.5 64.3 57.1 31.0 38.1 47.6 71.4 81.0 47.6 40.5 54,8 59.5 69.0 90.5 85.7 81.0 85.7 71.4 81.0 61.9 52,4 88.1 95.2 71.4 85.7 76.2 66.7 (1-Qspan) 971. New orders, manufacturing1© 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade 1 ® Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) Actual Antic pated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 1 © Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4=Q span) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 76 76 74 75 82 83 84 78 70 71 70 70 78 81 81 78 72 73 74 74 81 84 83 80 78 83 82 82 80 83 85 86 74 74 75 76 78 81 83 82 78 80 82 83 82 83 85 86 82 82 82 83 84 84 86 84 76 76 76 78 82 82 82 84 80 80 82 84 85 84 86 85 80 75 82 86 81 78 72 73 80 84 80 77 80 76 84 87 84 80 1987 First quarter . . . . , Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 71,4 66.7 54.8 64.3 42.9 52.4 59.6 73.8 66.7 71.4 61.9 (NA) 57.1 52.4 66.7 1989 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter .... .... .... .... (NA) 52.4 (NA) (NA) ^^1 DIFFUSION INDEXES— Continued Vnif rear and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade 1 © 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade1 @ Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated Anticipated Actual 978. Selling prices, retail trade1© 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade1© 976. Selling prices, manufacturing l@ Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 59 60 58 63 62 65 62 59 59 59 58 62 64 64 62 62 60 62 66 62 62 62 64 64 60 60 61 62 64 64 68 70 60 66 67 66 63 70 72 70 63 68 66 69 67 67 72 72 64 64 68 70 67 70 69 68 62 64 62 63 74 74 74 75 70 69 74 72 74 73 74 72 72 72 71 63 70 70 73 70 68 71 70 72 66 65 63 64 60 60 72 72 70 74 68 67 74 71 72 72 69 66 73 71 70 72 73 69 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 58 59 60 58 59 60 59 58 62 61 62 60 58 58 60 57 60 61 64 64 60 59 62 62 64 65 66 68 63 62 62 63 63 62 62 61 62 60 62 62 61 58 (4-Q span) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by(§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun ft Bradstroot diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Qj SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1989 March February May April Julyr June August r SeptemberP 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGl (Hours) All manufacturing industries o Percent rising of 20 components 41.1 41.0 (55) (40) + 41.3 41.0 o (5) (85) 41.0 o (70) 41.0 40.9 (30) (45) + 41.0 (58) Durable goods industries: Lumber and wood products . Furniture and fixtures 39.6 39.7 + + 40.0 39.8 + + 40.5 39.9 39.7 39.4 + o 39.4 + Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries 42.2 43.4 o + 42.2 43.5 + 42.5 43.3 41.9 43.2 + + 42.2 43.3 41.8 42.5 + + 41,9 42.7 41.7 42.5 o 41.5 42.5 41.0 42.8 40.7 42.5 o o 40.7 42.5 41.1 39.6 + 41.3 39.4 + 40.5 39.5 + + 40.7 40.1 + 39 .3 39.6 39.5 + + 40.2 39.6 + 42.3 43.0 + 42.5 42.9 o 41.5 42.4 Fabricated metal products Machinery except electrical o + 41.9 42.6 Electric and electronic equipment . . Transportation equipment o + 40.9 43.1 40.6 43.1 + o Instruments and related products . . Miscellaneous manufacturing o + 41.5 39.5 o 41.1 39.5 + + 41.5 39.8 + 40.3 37.8 + 40.4 36.3 + + 40.7 38.1 41.1 36.9 + + 41.7 37.6 41.4 37.1 o o 41.4 37.1 41,2 37.0 43.3 37.9 + o 43.4 37.9 43.3 37.7 o + 43.3 37.8 43.2 37.6 42.3 43.2 + + 42.6 44.3 42.1 43.9 + + 42.5 44.6 41.6 38.0 o + 41.6 38.3 41.5 37.4 o + 41.5 37.9 + 40.6 42.6 41.4 39.3 o 40.0 39.6 42.3 42.5 41.4 42.2 o o 41.4 42.2 40.9 42.5 + + 41.1 42.7 41.0 39.5 o 40.8 39.5 40.7 37,3 o + 40.7 39.6 o 41.0 37.0 + 40,7 37.1 + + 43.4 37.7 + 43.2 37.9 42.3 43.7 + + 42.7 44.1 41.4 38.2 + + 41.5 38.3 + + Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers 2 Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products 40.8 37.1 + + Paper and allied products Printing and publishing + o 43.2 38.0 + o '+ 42.3 44.0 o o + 41.7 38.6 Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products 2 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products . . + 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIESl (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries - 124,107 Percent rising of 34 components Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries + 125,377 (35) ... .... . ... + 129,372 - 123,524 (72) (44) o 41.0 37.9 42.5 44.3 41.4 37.7 o + 3 + 125,137 (35) - 122,031 (46) + 126,825 - 126,678 (65) (35) (56) + 12,602 13,377 - 11,885 12,910 + + 12,865 13,007 - 12,481 12,792 + 11,770 13,435 - 11,510 12,820 + 11,269 13,300 + + 11,487 13,733 + 21,921 19,573 + - 22,255 18,272 + + 22,731 19,890 - 22,288 18,677 + + 23,348 19,593 + 20,917 19,773 + - 22,667 19,424 + 22,131 20,643 - 33,381 23,253 + - 37,050 23,005 o + 37,062 23,817 o 33,470 23,816 - 33,414 23,577 + - 34,012 22,999 + + 36,510 23,655 + 34,781 23,903 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 1 Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Not seasonally adjusted. 3 Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. OCTOBER 1989 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued ^Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Continued 1989 Diffusion index components February Julyr Juner May April March August r September^ 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1 (1977-100) - All industrial production Percent ri\in# of 24 cntnf>ttncnt\ 2 140.5 + 140.7 + (60) (29) 141.7 141.6 (79) (50) + 142.0 o 142.0 (85) (46) 136.9 169.5 123.4 + 142,4 142.3 (67) (35) + 138.4 169.2 (NA) (NA) (NA) 85.1 Durable manufactures, Lumber and products . , . Furniture and fixtures , , Clay, j'Jass, and stone products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prnruiry cue tills . - 132.8 164.8 + + 133.4 165.8 + + 135.1 168.0 + + 135.5 170.2 + + 137.2 170.8 - 125.4 + 125.5 + 124.7 90.1 - 123.9 87.2 0 + 123.9 87.3 + 89.0 + + 124.1 88.4 + - 125.9 187.0 + + 126.1 187.1 o 125.5 187.1 181.1 131.6 + + 182.5 133.2 - 182.4 132.4 164.9 118.7 - 164.8 91.1 89.2 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery 0 + 124.5 180,8 + 123.8 183.0 ^ 123.1 184.7 + + 124.8 186.5 + + 125.2 187.5 HtK'trical machinery Transportation equipment + - 181.7 136.4 - 181.6 134.8 + + 182.2 136.4 - 181.6 135.5 + 181.9 134.2 Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures + - 161.3 110.0 + + 161.8 112.5 + + 163.0 115.3 + + 164.3 117.1 + + 165.7 119.1 + - 166.1 119.0 - - 146,3 104,7 - 145.4 101.5 + + 146.6 109.2 + 147.2 105.9 + 147.9 104.2 + 147.5 106,0 + Textile null products Apparel products o 119.4 110.2 + - 119.7 109.9 + + 122.5 111.3 + + 123.6 111.5 + + 123.8 111.9 123.5 111,7 + Paper and products Printing and publishing + 151.7 194.6 o + 151.7 198.5 + 150.7 200.1 150.1 199.0 + 150.2 + 200.5 + - 152.4 199.4 + + 153.5 200.0 - 158.5 + + 159.2 + + 159.3 97.3 158.2 96.9 + + 159,9 97.9 + + 161.9 + 162.0 96.3 98,3 97.3 + 175.0 + 176.4 + + 178.0 61.4 180.5 60.3 + + 182.3 60.5 o + 182.3 182,0 60.8 60.5 - 134.7 + 137.7 + 96.8 145.5 - 94.0 137.1 + - 101.2 129.2 + + 108.2 130.2 89.5 + + 143.5 + 89.1 144.5 + + 90.5 146.6 + + 90.6 150.2 o 150.2 (NA) Nondurable manufactures: Foods , Tobacco products ........ Chemicals and products Petf oleum products .,. , Rubber and plastics products leather and products , ,., 97.0 61.2 62.9 + 147.7 (NA) (NA) (NA) 124.8 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) + 200.8 + (NA) 98.1 (NA) (NA) Mimnp; Metal mining Coal . , , . . , , . ..,*..,....... Oil and fas extraction . .. Stone and eartli minerals . .... .,.,,..,.,.... 98.6 + 142.5 98.1 89.6 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: preliminary; and "NA", not available. ( t ) rising, (o) (NA) 90.3 unchanged, and ( ) falling. + 135.4 + - 149.1 (NA) + (NA) (NA) 90.5 The "r" indicates revised; "p", 1 Data 2 arc seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Wherc actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 78 140.0 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued f^ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued Diffusion index components 1989 April March February June May 967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . . + Percent rising of 13 components 329.3 + 334.6 + - 330,5 (54) (58) (65) 335.0 - July September October 1 2 329.1 - (38) (38) August 326.7 - 325.0 (38) + (50) 327.0 o (46) 327.1 (38) Dollars Copper scrap (pound) . . (kilogram).. - 0.910 2.006 + 1.032 2.275 + 1.058 2.332 - 0.969 2.136 - 0.940 2.072 - 0.901 + 1.986 0.952 2.099 + 1.012 2.231 + 1.045 2.304 Lead scrap (pound) . . (kilogram).. - 0.239 0,527 - 0.217 0.478 + 0.218 0.481 o 0.218 0.481 + 0.228 0.503 + 0.231 + 0.509 0.242 0.534 + 0.260 0.573 - 0.258 0.569 Steel scrap (U.S. t o n ) . . (metric t o n ) . . - 113.000 124.560 0 113.000 124.560 o 113.000 124.560 - 112.200 123.678 - 111.000 122.355 - 108.000 119.048 - 105.000 115.741 - 102.250 112.710 - 100.000 110.230 Tin (pound) . . (kilogram). . + 4.528 9.982 + 5.022 11.072 + 5.750 12.676 + 5.822 12.835 - 5.685 12.533 - 5.290 11.662 - 4.786 10.551 - 4.535 9.998 - 4.430 9.766 Zinc (pound) . . (kilogram).. + 0.901 1.986 + 0.954 2.103 - 0.879 1.938 - 0.854 1.883 - 0.809 1.784 - 0.804 1.772 + 0.829 1.828 - 0.822 1.812 - 0.804 1.772 (yard) (meter).. + 0.282 0.308 o 0.282 0.308 + 0.283 0.309 - 0.282 0.308 + 0.284 0.311 + 0.286 0.313 - 0.284 0.311 o 0.284 0.311 + 0.285 0.312 (pound) . , (kilogram) . . - 0.554 1.221 + 0.578 1.274 + 0.614 1.354 + 0.635 1.400 + 0.638 1.407 + 0.670 1.477 + 0.698 1.539 - 0.686 1.512 + 0.691 1.523 (yard)., (meter).. + 0.610 0.667 + 0.630 0.689 + 0.650 0.711 + 0.708 0.774 + 0.768 0.840 + 0.815 0.891 - 0.784 0.857 - 0.782 0.855 - 0.780 0.853 Wool tops .(pound) . . (kilogram).. + 7.075 15.598 6.650 14.661 - 6.250 13.779 - 5.570 12.280 - 5.400 11.905 - 5.200 11.464 + 5.220 11.508 + 5.250 11.574 Hides (pound) (kilogram).. + 0.976 2.152 + 1.048 2.310 - 0.975 2.149 - 0.954 2.103 - 0.948 2.090 + 1.000 2.205 + 1.020 2.249 + 1.052 2.319 - 1.050 2.315 Rosin (100 pounds).. (100 kilograms).. o 65.000 143.299 o 65.000 143.299 o 65.000 143.299 o 65.000 143.299 - 64.500 142.197 - 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 Rubber (pound) . . (kilogram).. + 0.592 1.305 - 0.566 1.248 - 0.553 1.219 - 0.520 1.146 - 0.494 1.089 - 0.492 1.085 - 0.473 1.043 - 0.462 1.019 o 0.462 1.019 Tallow (pound) . . (kilogram).. + 0.147 0.324 - 0.145 0.320 - 0.143 0.315 + 0.144 0.317 + 0.150 0.331 - 0.142 0.313 - 0.131 0.289 + 0.138 0.304 + 0.144 0,317 falling. The "r" indicates revised: "p", Burlap Cotton , Print cloth NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( rising, (o) -= unchanged, and ( • - ) - 5.225 11,519 preliminary; and "NA", not available. l The index is the average for October 2 through 25; component prices are averages f'or October 3, 10, 17, and 24. Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 OCTOBER 1989 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME Year and quarter 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars b. Difference . Total (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) b. Difference a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) c. Percent change at annual rate 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Ann, rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) 1986 4,181.3 4,194.7 4,253.3 4,297.3 73,4 13.4 58.6 44.0 7.3 1.3 5.7 4.2 3,721.1 3,704.6 3,712.4 3,733.6 -16.5 7.8 21.2 6.6 -1.8 0.8 2.3 15,455 15,351 15,343 15,391 3,679.2 3,697.6 3,718.3 3,754.4 First quarter , . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 4,388,8 4,475.9 4,566.6 4,665.8 91.5 87.1 90.7 99.2 8.8 8.2 8.4 9.0 3,783.0 3,823.5 3,872.8 3,935.6 49.4 40.5 49.3 62.8 5.4 4,4 5.3 6.6 15,562 15,693 15,854 16,068 3,764.9 3,810.1 3,866.0 3,879.0 First quarter . , Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 4,739,8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 74.0 98.7 88.4 90.4 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,042.7 4,069.4 39.2 35.9 32.0 26.7 4,0 3.7 3.2 2.7 16,192 16,303 16,388 16,452 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,005.2 4,051.0 5,113.1 5,201,7 p5,273.2 95,8 88.6 p71.5 7.9 7.1 4,106.8 4,132.5 p4,158.1 37.4 3.7 25.7 p25.6 2,5 P 2.5 16,567 16,633 p!6,690 4,082.3 4,113.5 p4,127.9 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 58,7 1987 1989 First quarter . , Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter p5.6 GNP AND PERSONAL JNCOME-Continued Year and quarter PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 231. Total in 1982 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 233. Durable goods in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, fail, dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann, rate, bil, dol.) 1986 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 2,959.2 3,006.5 3,024.3 3,063.4 2,609.2 2,648.6 2,637.3 2,646.2 10,837 10,975 10,900 10,909 2,734.3 2,761.0 2,826.0 2,868.5 2,410.9 2,432.4 2,464.4 2,477.8 381.8 393.6 426.4 422.0 363.7 374.5 401.9 397,5 3,142.8 3,138.1 3,223,5 3,319.4 2,672,3 2,632.5 2,675,6 2,726,2 10,993 10,805 10,953 11,130 2,914.7 2,989.4 3,055.9 3,083.3 2,478.3 2,507.7 2,536.5 2,532.3 401.2 419.2 439.3 424.5 376.1 389.3 403.8 389.4 3,376.4 3,435.9 3,511.7 3,587,4 2,757.2 2,773.3 2,806.4 2,835.9 11,232 11,273 11,377 11,466 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,608.1 2,627,7 446.4 454.6 452.5 467.4 408.4 414.8 410.7 420.5 3,689,5 3,747.7 p3,809.8 2,881, 2,887. p2,921.5 11,625 11,622 pll,726 3,381.4 3,444.1 p3,509.5 2,641,0 2,653.7 p2,691.2 466.4 471.0 p490.4 419.3 424.9 p440.0 1987 First quarter . . , Second quarter Third quarter . , Fourth quarter , 1988 First quarter . . . Second quarter . Third quarter . . Fourth quarter . 1989 First quarter . . . Second quarter . Third quarter . . Fourth quarter , NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41. 80 OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued VQ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued Tear and quarter Voar 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 238, Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) ^Q GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 237. Services in current dollars 239. Services in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 241. Total in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 242. Fixed investment in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 939.0 935.4 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 941.4 952.1 870.1 879.8 879.1 883.5 1,413.4 1,432.0 1,458.2 1,494.4 1,177.1 1,178.0 1,183.4 1,196.8 683.8 657.2 647.7 648.8 676.1 642.3 625.1 615.2 643.1 651.8 654.2 660.9 634.2 635.2 631.0 636.0 976.4 994.3 1,006,0 1,015.4 887.7 889.0 891.8 892.9 1,537.1 1,575.8 1,610.6 1,643.3 1,214.5 1,229,5 1,240.9 1,250.0 673.1 684.1 692.8 749.7 646.3 656.7 671.7 721.1 647.7 665.3 683.2 686.3 628.2 643.4 664.9 664,6 1,022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 896.6 899.2 910.3 912.0 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 1,265.9 1,272.8 1,287.0 1,295.2 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 707.0 713.5 733.6 709.1 698.7 719.1 726.5 734.1 672.7 692.0 696.1 690,8 1,098.3 1,121.5 915.0 909.7 p918.6 1,816.7 1,851.7 pi, 890.1 1,306.7 1,319.0 pi, 332. 5 769.6 775.0 p791.0 721.1 719,8 p735.2 742.0 747.6 p755.8 696.6 700.7 p705.0 1987 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 first quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . pi, 128. 9 B rear and quarter Voar GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) |Q GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 261. Total in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil, dol.) 262. Federal Government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal Government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 266. State and local government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 267. State and local government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 40.7 41.9 5.4 7.1 -6.4 -12.2 -5.9 -20.8 25.4 18.8 18.1 13.3 850.3 869.3 880.3 888.9 744.1 761.2 765.2 776.0 358.5 368.7 369.9 368.8 324.4 335.4 334.2 342.4 491.8 500.6 510.4 520.1 419.6 425.7 430.9 433.6 906.9 916.8 933.2 947.5 776.6 774.9 783.5 792.1 375.6 378.2 384.5 388.1 338.1 334.7 340.7 344.9 531.4 538.6 548.7 559.4 438.5 440.1 442.8 447.2 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 775.1 783.0 775.9 806.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 323.8 327.9 319.8 343.9 571.6 583.0 591.0 604.9 451.3 455.1 456.1 462.5 1,016.0 1,033.2 pi, 040. 5 799.7 810.3 P805.7 399.0 406.0 p403.1 335.5 343.6 p335.9 617.0 627.2 p637.4 464.2 466.7 p469.9 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 9.5 6.8 63.3 56.6 30.0 29.3 44.6 18.7 34.3 21.5 37.5 1988 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 18.3 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 27.7 27.4 p35.1 24.5 19.1 p30.2 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43. KCII OCTOBER 1989 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS FOREIGN TRADE Year and quarter 255. Constant (1982) dollars 250. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 280. Compel sation of employees 257. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bii. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 253. Current dollars 256. Constant (1982) dollars 252. Current dollars 220. National in come in current dollars Imports oi goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) 1986 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter -87.1 -92.7 -100.8 -108.9 -110.0 -131.2 -142.3 -135.4 395,5 390.7 397.3 402,4 392.9 389.6 399.6 406.5 482.7 483,4 498.0 511.3 502.9 520.7 541.9 541.9 3,363.4 3,394,5 3,419.3 3,473.1 2,463.8 2,487.2 2,523.3 2,571.2 -106.0 -114,4 -115,3 -114.6 -118,2 -115,9 -118.9 -109.8 416.5 437.4 458.0 482.6 418.7 439.5 461.3 484.1 522.5 551.8 573.4 597.2 536.9 555.4 580.2 593,9 3,550.5 3,616.4 3,694.8 3,799.9 2,615.0 2,656.6 2,709,8 2,778.7 -82.8 -74.9 -66.2 -70,8 -78.2 -72.6 -74.9 -73.8 521.6 532.5 556.8 579.7 517.4 519.7 531.9 551.4 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 595.6 592,3 606.9 625.2 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2,819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 -54.0 -50.6 p-67.7 -55.0 -51.2 p-74.1 605.6 626.1 p618.6 569.7 587,5 P587.5 659.6 676.6 p686.3 624.6 638.7 P661.6 4,185.2 4,249.6 (NA) 3,061.7 3,118.2 p3,170.5 1987 First quarter . , Second quarter Third quarter , Fourth quarter 1988 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1989 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter SAVING NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued Year and quarter 282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj l (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj l 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 292. Personal saving 295. Business saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 269.4 289.5 279.7 289.2 9.6 11,5 11.7 13.5 292.7 280.9 279.7 275.2 327.9 325.4 324,9 324.0 559.6 523.0 508.8 510.0 550.8 542.8 545.5 539.3 135.9 155.0 106.6 102.0 306.7 305.8 305.2 328,7 14.7 13.0 11,5 14.3 279.9 293.7 313.0 308.2 334.2 347.2 355.3 370.0 529.5 535.0 551.1 599.5 546,8 556.4 571.0 573.9 135,9 55.9 73.6 141.8 324.0 331.8 327.0 328.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 376.6 383.0 396.4 415.7 619.1 633.4 669.8 647,4 588.1 588.5 592.8 605.8 131.9 134.0 149,6 163.4 359.3 355.5 P345.4 11.8 9,8 p4.8 316.3 307.8 436.1 693.5 695.8 (NA) 586.4 593.0 205.7 200.7 p!96.0 1987 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1988 First quarter , . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1989 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter (NA) 458.4 P470.7 (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. 1 IVA J inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 82 OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q SAVING-Continued Year and quarter 298. Government surplus or deficit Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME 293. Personal saving rate Percent of gross national product 235. Personal consumption expenditures (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 248. Presidential fixed investment (Percent) 247. Change in business inventories 249. Residential fixed investment (Percent) (Percent) 251. Net exports of goods and services (Percent) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -127.2 -174.7 -143.4 -131.3 4.6 5.2 3.5 3.3 65.4 65.8 66.4 66.8 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.1 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 -153.2 -77.3 -93.5 -116,3 4.3 1.8 2.3 4.3 66.4 66.8 66.9 66.1 9.7 9.8 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 -2.4 »2.6 -2,5 -2.5 -101,0 -89.1 -72.7 -121.9 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 66.4 66.2 66.2 66.3 9.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -98.7 -97.9 5.6 5.4 66.1 66.2 9.8 9.9 4.7 4.5 0.5 0.5 -1.1 -1.0 (NA) p5.1 p9.9 p4.4 1.0 0.1 -0.2 -0,3 -2.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2,5 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 10.0 9.8 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 10.0 10.1 10.0 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . p66.6 pO.7 p-1.3 Q| SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued Year and quarter Percent of GNP-Continued 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services Percent of national income 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services (Percent) (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj l 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj * (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 287. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdjl 289. Net interest (Percent) (Percent) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8.6 8.8 8.7 8.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 73.3 73.3 73.8 74.0 8.0 8.5 8.2 8.3 0,3 0.3 0.3 0.4 8.7 8.3 8.2 7.9 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.3 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 73.7 73.5 73.3 73.1 8.6 8.5 8,3 8.7 0,4 0.4 0.3 0.4 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.1 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.7 7.9 7.8 7.5 8.1 , 12.1 73.2 73.2 73.3 73.1 8.4 8,4 8.2 8.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 9.8 9,7 9.9 7.8 7.8 p7.6 12.1 12.1 73.2 73.4 (NA) 8.6 8.4 0.3 0.2 7.6 7.2 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . .-.. Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 12.0 12.0 12.1 10.1 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . p!2.1 (NA) (NA) (NA) 10.4 10.8 (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. J IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. OCTOBER 1989 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY ' Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month 310. Index (1982^100) 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans * (Ann. rate, percent) Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS 31 1 Index (1982-100) 31k. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Consumer price index for all urban consumers Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product 320. Index © (1982-84-100) 320c. Change over 1-month spansl (Percent) 320c. Change over 6-month spans l (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1982-84-100) 322c. Change over l°month spans * (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans x (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March , . . . ne)6 April May June 117)1 July August September . , 117)9 October November December . . . . nsle 3.2 3.7 111.2 111.6 112.1 0.7 0.4 0,4 5.0 5.1 5.3 112.1 112.3 112.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 4.0 4.2 4,9 3.9 112.7 113.1 113,5 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.4 4.5 4.0 112.8 113.4 114.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 3.1 2,7 3.2 3,7 113.8 114.4 115.0 0,3 0.4 0.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 113.8 113.8 114.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.3 2,1 3.6 115.3 115.4 115.4 0,3 0.3 0,2 3.9 3.3 3.7 114.5 114.7 115.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 115.7 116.0 116.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 3.9 4.0 4.4 115.7 115.5 116.0 0.3 0,4 3.7 4.2 4.4 5.0 117.1 117.5 118.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.4 4.7 4.9 116.6 117.1 117.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 5.6 7.0 7.6 5.5 118.5 119.0 119.8 0,4 0.3 0.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 118,9 119.5 120.3 0.9 0,5 0.7 7.0 6.4 5.9 4.3 120.2 120.3 120.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.8 4.9 5,1 120.6 120.8 121.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 5.5 5.3 5.6 4.1 121.1 121.6 122.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 5.6 6.2 5.9 122.1 122.6 123.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 6,1 7.1 6.9 5.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 0.7 0.6 0,2 5.2 4.3 3.6 124.2 125.0 125.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 6.0 5.5 4.3 124.4 124.6 125.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 125.7 125.9 126.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 115)7 3.8 116)9 2.8 117)9 2.4 119)6 1988 January February March 119)2 April May June 126)5 July August September 121)9 October November December 123)3 2.0 119)9 4.8 12l)4 4.4 123)6 4.7 124)4 -0.2 1989 January . . . . . . . . . February March 124)5 April . May June 125)9 July . . , August September pize.'s 4.0 125)6 4.6 127)2 p2.6 p2.9 pl28)6 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. 84 OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued JQ PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Producer price index, alt commodities Year and month 330. Index © (1982=100) 330c. Change over 1-month spans1© (Percent) Producer price index, crude materials for further processing Producer price index, industrial commodities 330c. Change over 6-month spans 1 © {Ann. rate, percent) 335. Index © 335c. Change over 1-month spans1© (1982 = 100) (Percent) 335c. Change over 6-month spans1© (Ann. rate, percent) 331. Index 331c. Change over 1-month spansl (1982=100) (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans1 {Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March 100.5 101.0 101.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 4.5 5.7 6.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 5.1 5.5 6.6 89.3 90.1 90.8 2.8 0.9 0.8 12,5 14.9 17.8 April May June 101.9 102.6 103.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 6.1 5.6 5.0 101.6 101.9 102.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 5.5 5.8 4.8 92.6 93.9 94.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 14.4 14.7 11.5 July August September . 103.5 103.8 103.7 0.5 0.3 4.4 3.1 2.3 103.1 103.7 103.5 0.7 0.6 4.8 4.6 3.5 95.5 96.5 95.9 1.3 1.0 -0.6 7.0 2.4 1.1 -2.9 -3.1 -2.7 -0.4 October November December . -0.1 -0.2 104.1 104.2 104.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 1.9 2,3 104.0 104.2 104,2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 1.7 2.3 95.8 95.0 94.8 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 January February March 104.6 104.8 104.9 0,4 0.2 0.1 3.3 4.5 5,8 104.4 104.6 104.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 94.1 95.0 94.6 -0.7 April May June 105.8 106.5 107.2 . 0.9 0.7 0.7 6.4 6.2 6.2 105.6 106.1 106.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 4.7 4.6 4.1 95.6 96.0 96.9 4.6 3.4 3.4 106,8 107.0 106.8 0.4 0.2 2.9 2.7 3.2 96.6 97.2 97.1 -0.3 - 0.7 0.1 0.1 4.9 5.3 6.4 107.1 107.5 108.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 5.3 5.9 7.0 96.6 94.8 97.8 -0.5 -1.9 7.7 1.4 0.5 0.4 9.0 9.3 7.9 101.8 101.5 103.7 -0.3 7.1 109.6 110.1 110.5 4.0 2.2 1.4 111.8 112.4 112.3 1.2 0.5 4.8 2.4 2.5 104.5 r!04,9 103.0 rO.4 1988 . . .. . July August September . . . . . . . 107.9 108.0 108,1 October November December 108.2 108.3 109,0 0.1 0.1 0.6 110.5 110.8 111.5 1.4 0.3 0.6 -0.2 1.0 -0.4 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 -0.1 3.2 2.1 4.5 5.4 4.7 5.4 2.1 -2.5 1.9 11.1 9.0 14.1 1989 January February March April May June 112.3 rl!3.2 112.8 July August September 112.7 112.0 112.3 0.7 rO.8 r-0.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.3 r9.3 112.2 111.4 111.9 -0.1 -0.1 : -0.7 0.4 103.2 101.2 102,3 4.1 2.2 0.8 r-1.8 17.0 r22.4 10.9 2.8 -0.6 -2.7 0.2 -1.9 1.1 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: OCTOBER 1989 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued ^H PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332. Index 332c. Change over 6-month spans 1 332e. Change over 1-month spansl (1982-100) Producer price index, capital equipment (Ann, rate, percent) (Percent) 333. Index (1982-100) 333c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) Producer price index, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1982-100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans 1 334c. Change over 6-month spans * (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 0.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 102.0 102.6 102.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 4.2 4,6 4,8 0.3 0.1 0,0 0.7 1.6 2.4 103.4 103.6 103.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 3.8 2.6 3,1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 103,9 103.9 104,5 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.2 1.4 104.3 104.2 103.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 1.4 1,4 1.0 112.8 113.1 113.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 104.6 104.6 105.0 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.7 3.7 7.0 7.0 7,0 113.4 113.7 114,0 0.2 0.3 0,3 2,7 2.8 4.5 105,3 105.6 105.8 0.3 0,3 0.2 3,7 4,3 4.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 5.6 5.1 4.5 114.3 114.7 115,7 0.3 0.3 0,9 3,9 3.7 3.9 106,5 106,8 107.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 4,0 4.2 4.6 108,6 109.0 109.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 5.4 5.8 6.2 115,6 115.8 116.2 4.6 4.8 3,1 107.4 107,8 108.2 0.1 0,4 0,4 5.7 7,2 7.4 110,8 111,3 111,9 1.2 0.5 0.5 7.3 5.4 116.9 117.4 117.5 3.1 r6.9 4.3 109.5 110,6 111.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 8.7 rlO.l 8.7 112.5 r!12.7 112,4 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.7 117.4 rl!8.2 118.7 -0.1 rO.7 rO,4 3.1 2.7 4.6 112.0 rl!3.1 112.8 0.7 4.8 1.6 2.4 118.7 119.0 120.2 0,0 0.3 1.0 100.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 4,3 5,4 6,2 111.2 111.0 111,1 100.3 100.8 101.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 5.5 5.1 5.3 111.4 111.5 111.5 ,,.. 101.8 102,3 102.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 5.7 5.2 4.6 111.6 111.9 112.4 October . . . . . . . . . November . . . . . . . December 103.1 103.4 103.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 5.0 4.5 4.7 112.0 112.1 112.2 January February . March . , . , . , , 104.3 104.6 105.0 0.7 0,3 0.4 5.1 5.7 6.9 April . . . , , May June 105.7 106.3 107.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 July August September 107.9 108,2 108.6 October November •December . . . . . . . January February March 99,1 99,8 .. . April May June July August September 0.4 -0.2 -0,4 1988 -0.1 0.2 0.3 1989 January , , , . , , . , . February March , April May June July August September .... 112.2 111,9 112,3 rO.2 r-0.3 -0.2 -0,3 0-4 0.6 0.4 0.1 r4.2 112.1 111.5 112,5 rl.O r-0,3 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 October November December See note on page 80, Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 'Changes arc centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued |Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagncultural payrolls1 Year and month Real earnings Current-dollar earnings 340. Index 340c. Change over 1-month spans 2 (1977-100) (Percent) Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector 340c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341c. Change over 1-month spans2 341. Index (1977-100) (Percent) Current-dollar compensation 341c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1977-100) 345c. Change over 1-quarter spans2 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann, rate, percent) 1987 1.4 171.3 171.9 172.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.6 2.0 2.1 94.7 94.7 94.4 -0.7 -2.4 -3.1 -3.3 186 '.2 -0.3 172.5 172.9 172.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 94,1 94.0 93.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -2.1 -2.0 -1.5 187^4 July August September 173.2 174.1 174.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 2.8 3.3 3.3 93.7 93.8 93.7 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 -0.1 m'.'e October November December 174.9 175.6 175.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.0 3.0 2.8 93.5 93.8 93.7 -0.2 January February March 176.6 176.7 177.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 3.6 3.5 3.3 93.8 93.7 93.5 April May June 178.0 178.7 178.6 0.6 0.4 3.1 3.2 3.8 93.6 93.6 93.2 July August September 179.3 179.5 180.3 4,0 3.0 93.2 92.9 93.0 October November December 181.5 181.4 plSl.7 -0.1 pO.2 93.1 92,9 -0.2 p92.7 p-0.2 (3) (3) (3) (3) January February March ... , April May June ' 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 2.6 4.'6 4.8 7.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 3*.S 192!9 iia s'.i 1988 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 P 3.5 0.6 (3) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 2.6 0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 -1.8 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 0.2 p-1.0 0.1 (3) 5!2 194^2 5.8 196 '.9 i'.9 5.3 199^5 5*.5 5.9 202*.3 5*.4 1989 January February March .. 5.1 204.' 8 (NA) 5.6 April May June 207 '.6 July August September . . . . (NA) (NA) October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter, 3 This series has been discontinued by the source agency. OCTOBER 1989 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector— Continued Year and month Negotiated wage and benefit decisions 348. Average first-year changes © Real compensation 346. Index (1977-100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans * (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, business sector 349. Average changes over life of contract © (Ann. rate, percent) 370. Index (1977-100) 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (1977-100) 1987 January February March 1.1 -3.8 100 ".8 2.1 0.5 109 '.9 -6*.7 l'.9 107 '.7 zis 108 i 6 3i6 109is iia iiois lie niii iio noi? oie niie i.'i nzii , April May June 100 '.3 July . August . . . . September . . . . 106! 5 4.1 -2.1 October November December 3.9 -6'.4 1.1 ois 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.1 nii? 2.6 3.9 2.9 2.4 \.2 10K4 iioi? 112i5 , 1988 January February March -1.0 . 101 '.1 April May . . , June ioi!i July August September loiis October November December loii9 1.2 iio ois 0.6 1.8 113*.3 3.1 2,4 -2.0 mi? 3.4 3.1 3.2 113.*6 6i? 1.4 2.7 1.8 3.5 0.2 2.1 113.*6 6i2 1989 January February March 101 is April May June loiie July . . . . August September -0.4 -0.8 (NA) (NA) p3.2 1.0 p3.4 113*.9 (NA) p5.0 p3.9 p3.4 niii (NA) niis 1.3 112.'6 (NA) P 2.7 (NA) (NA) October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pae«s 49 and 50. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. OCTOBER 1989 KCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total 442. Civilian employment Number unemployed 37. Persons unemployed 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Thous.) 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers 448. Number employed part time for economic reasons (Thous.) (Thous.) Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over (Percent) 452. Females 20 years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) (Thous.) January February March 118,873 119,119 119,263 110,969 111,271 111,459 7,904 7,848 7,804 3,649 3,594 3,532 2,864 2,822 2,870 1,391 1,432 1,402 6,430 6,382 6,231 5,187 5,326 5,168 78.2 78.1 78.1 55.7 55.8 55.9 54.2 54.8 54.4 April May June 119,394 120,102 119,647 111,789 112,524 112,287 7,605 7,578 7,360 3,482 3,443 3,440 2,757 2,708 2,640 1,366 1,427 1,280 6,110 6,039 6,043 5,122 5,098 4,979 78.1 78.2 78.0 56.0 56.3 56.2 54,5 55.6 53.6 July August September 119,884 120,245 120,008 112,613 113,019 112,896 7,271 7,226 7,112 3,340 3,259 3,165 2,674 2,662 2,666 1,257 1,305 1,261 5,895 5,814 5,664 5,103 5,046 5,050 78.0 77.9 77.9 56.3 56.4 56.3 53.8 56.0 54.1 October November December 120,429 120,527 120,701 113,225 113,460 113,740 7,204 7,067 6,961 3,194 3,114 3,061 2,620 2,602 2,605 1,390 1,351 1,295 5,756 5,655 5,562 5,142 5,287 4,979 78.0 78.0 77.8 56,4 56.4 56.5 55.1 54.8 55.4 January February March 121,035 121,165 120,936 114,055 114,273 114,129 6,980 6,892 6,807 3,106 3,053 3,064 2,568 2,596 2,450 1,306 1,243 1,293 5,550 5,526 5,473 5,113 5,101 5,087 77.9 78.1 77.9 56,6 56.7 56.6 55.9 55.0 54.1 April May June 121,328 121,203 131,524 114,660 114,403 115,001 6,668 6,800 6,523 2,941 3,065 2,889 2,471 2,492 2,485 1,256 1,243 1,149 5,338 5,413 5,163 4,953 4,676 5,073 78.1 78.0 77.8 56.6 56,5 56.6 54.5 54.5 56.2 July August September 121,658 122,000 121,984 115,034 115,203 115,370 6,624 6,797 6,614 2,832 3,077 2,905 2,565 2,467 2,456 1,227 1,253 1,253 5,215 5,491 5,293 5,102 4,972 4,862 77.8 78.0 77.9 56.7 56.8 56.8 55.9 56.1 56.0 October November December 122,091 122,510 122,563 115,573 115,947 116,009 6,518 6,563 6,554 2,911 2,996 2,953 2,413 2,445 2,422 1,194 1,122 1,179 5,176 5,273 5,317 4,727 4,819 5,033 77.8 77.8 77.8 57.0 57.4 57,3 55,2 55.1 55.2 January February March 123,428 123,181 123,264 116,711 116,853 117,136 6,716 6,328 6,128 2,938 2,853 2,688 2,455 2,306 2,367 1,323 1,168 1,073 5,295 5,024 5,028 4,837 4,697 4,709 78.1 78.1 78.1 57.7 57.5 57.5 56.0 54.8 54.9 April May June 123,659 123,610 124,102 117,113 117,215 117,541 6,546 6,395 6,561 2,952 2,705 2,737 2,448 2,480 2,570 1,146 1,210 1,254 5,247 5,104 5,131 4,930 4,609 4,801 78.3 77.9 78.2 57.6 57.7 57.7 55.7 55.8 56,6 July August September 123,956 124,018 124,040 117,459 117,597 117,456 6,497 6,421 6,584 2,734 2,790 3,038 2,613 2,468 2,353 1,150 1,163 1,193 5,218 5,183 5,255 4,505 4,553 4,612 77.9 77.8 77.9 57.9 57.8 57,8 55.2 56.5 55.6 1987 ,, • 1988 ... = 1989 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. ItCII OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q| DEFENSE INDICATORS Q| RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES State and local government l Federal Government i Year and month 500. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bit. dot.) Advance measures of defense activity 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dot.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol.) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Mann facturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 1987 January February March -199ii 860 '.7 l,06C)!i 46*.3 637!i 59C)!8 25,911 34,669 28,986 11,166 13,121 12,272 196,585 199,440 199,308 6,129 7,650 9,769 April May June -13?!? 926.2 i.oeiia 6CL4 658!9 598 is 33,794 32,801 30,475 11,359 11,782 12,104 200,411 202,504 204,177 11,265 9,907 10,128 -143'.9 92JL5 i.oesis s6is 659! 6 609 !i 31,867 32,619 34,065 12,913 13,595 13,683 207,148 209,556 215,074 9,882 9,179 9,102 -leiii 937 '.4 i.ioii? 48!6 668 '.9 620 '.9 29,233 30,794 24,532 10,555 9,353 11,820 212,355 212,086 205,974 9,864 9,824 7,036 January February March -isi'.s 944 '.7 i.ogeis SO'.S 684*. 8 634! 6 31,157 33,243 31,595 8,289 11,821 12,096 208,366 210,637 212,335 9,223 8,480 8,065 April May . June -niii 973^2 1,114!? 52'.4 699 '.2 646! 7 33,172 32,294 36,167 15,035 13,958 13,721 210,520 214,223 219,469 9,871 8,215 13,829 July . . . . . . . August September -122is 97?!3 I,099i8 49is 706.6 656i2 29,691 29,004 27,652 17,438 9,758 10,980 219,349 219,239 220,134 6,995 8,037 7,472 October November December -i67ie i,i62ii 45*.7 716'.5 67C)!8 31,118 34,783 31,522 (NA) 994 '.6 217,720 222,122 223,937 10,695 8,391 10,407 January February . . , „ , . , March -147is I,036i2 1,183!? 4a!s 732 '.6 683 '.8 31,580 30,058 30,859 226,193 224,553 219,856 6,815 8,159 10,461 April May June -145.4 1,053.2 1,198.6 47 is 742.6 695 il 31,395 30,056 29,495 222,194 221,337 216,120 8,551 7,572 8,938 (NA) (NA) p706'.3 r30,996 p28,530 220,028 p217,S09 r7,6Z6 r7,927 p!2,387 . .. July August September . October November December 1988 ...., 1989 July August September October . . November December (NA) (NA) pl,19li6 (NA) (NA) ,,, See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. 1 Based on national income and product accounts. 90 OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES J) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Q DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year and month 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equip* ment (1977 = 100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military (Mil. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (Mil. dol.) 570. Employment, defense products industries (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 577. Military on active duty @ (Thous.) 578. Civilian, direct hire employment (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP (Percent) 1987 January February March 187.3 188.9 188.6 31,122 31,233 31,169 158,833 157,779 158,084 22,243 24,096 23,259 8,755 8,704 9,464 1,590 1,589 1,590 2,179 2,172 2,168 1,060 1,066 1,069 288 i 6 6^6 April May June 189.2 189.3 188.6 31,597 31,624 31,709 160,358 160,898 161,816 23,593 22,760 24,046 8,991 9,367 9,210 1,583 1,584 1,577 2,158 2,153 2,151 1,070 1,070 1,076 294! 6 e!e 188.7 189.1 189.8 32,174 32,553 32,668 162,605 162,741 162,316 22,858 24,340 21,513 9,093 9,043 9,527 1,577 1,576 1,574 2,158 2,167 2,174 1,078 1,080 1,088 300 !2 e!e 190.3 188.7 188.9 33,171 33,936 33,504 163,247 164,130 161,860 25,816 21,276 26,329 8,933 8,941 9,306 1,574 1,572 1,569 2,172 2,174 2,167 1,086 1,085 1,082 296^8 eii January February March 190.6 191.0 189.9 33,656 33,859 33,945 162,206 162,089 160,841 20,786 23,441 23,752 8,877 8,597 9,313 1,570 1,566 1,558 2,166 2,162 2,142 1,076 1,071 1,067 297A e',3 April May June 187.9 185.5 184.6 34,069 34,695 35,328 162,171 162,009 167,117 26,548 20,130 23,765 8,541 8,377 8,721 1,559 1,557 1,556 2,108 2,100 2,104 1,060 1,054 1,045 298 .'6 6.'2 July August September 184.9 184.9 184.5 34,799 34,071 34,839 165,449 164,451 163,092 24,243 23,321 20,636 8,663 9,035 8,830 1,550 1,548 1,542 2,111 2,122 2,138 1,034 1,039 1,048 296 !i 6.'6 184.0 182.2 180.5 35,410 35,351 35,373 165,356 165,087 165,397 27,027 24,443 26,357 8,431 8,660 10,097 1,536 1,534 1,530 2,130 2,130 2,122 1,044 1,044 1,048 300 '.5 e!6 January February March 180.0 179.3 178.7 35,777 35,793 36,416 163,482 163,238 165,250 20,843 23,426 26,053 8,730 8,403 8,449 1,530 1,529 1,529 2,124 2,123 2,116 1,054 1,058 1,058 298.7 ELS April May June 179.9 180.7 181.1 36,362 36,786 36,776 165,168 164,043 163,756 21,035 24,087 26,829 8,633 8,697 9,225 1,528 1,530 1,526 2,110 2,111 2,115 1,061 1,063 1,059 301.' 3 S*.8 181.7 rlSl.O p!80.5 r37,100 p37,447 r!63,189 r!62,179 pl65,242 21,068 r23,926 p29,634 r8,193 r8,937 p9,324 1,522 pi, 514 r2,117 2,126 p2,130 1,055 pi, 066 p306\2 P'S'.'B Julv August September .. October November December 1988 . ,. October November December 1989 July August September (NA) (NA) (NA) October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. OCTOBER 1989 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports Year and month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (Mil. dol ) (Mil. dol.) 1987 January February March 18,377 19,371 19,981 1,926 2,047 2,157 3,452 4,404 4,098 32,189 31,186 32,247 2,269 3,598 3,513 4,882 6,322 5,329 April May Jung 20,250 20,111 21,381 2,234 2,410 2,445 4,122 4,176 4,338 32,317 33,484 34,141 2,842 3,685 3,375 5,516 6,093 5,823 August , , September . . . . , „ . July . 22,472 20,845 21,669 2,956 2,520 2,625 4,260 4,420 4,717 34,927 34,506 34,015 4,125 4,574 3,439 5,800 6,008 5,307 October November December 22,136 23,327 24,187 2,593 2,409 2,472 4,407 5,371 5,371 36,253 35,219 35,758 3,780 3,292 3,158 6,776 6,342 6,560 24,669 24,839 26,762 2,759 2,893 3,033 5,040 5,177 5,442 35,165 36,325 36,338 3,541 3,536 3,225 5,441 5,659 5,677 April . May . June 26,040 27,446 26,706 3,027 3,382 3,120 5,288 5,374 5,353 35,360 36,137 37,304 3,226 3,802 3,060 6,220 5,507 5,351 July . , . . , August September 26,612 27,478 27,578 3,311 3,357 3,493 5,457 5,778 5,876 35,074 37,623 36,750 3,122 3,360 2,927 5,378 5,888 6,354 October November December 27,889 27,538 28,864 3,090 2,909 2,995 5,698 5,709 6,393 37,121 38,087 39,668 2,718 2,645 3,347 6,589 6,291 6,946 28,980 28,839 30,064 3,143 3,201 3,666 5,338 5,990 6,162 37,877 38,220 39,549 3,619 3,326 4,095 5,627 6,326 6,282 30,758 30,455 31,285 3,387 3,618 3,638 6,150 4,937 6,382 39,045 40,534 39,293 4,730 4,680 4,001 5,869 5,770 5,289 r30,468 30,408 (NA) 3,657 3,139 (NA) 6,371 6,290 (NA) r38,709 41,180 (NA) 4,130 4,227 (NA) 5,621 5,426 (NA) 1988 January , February March ,, ,. 1989 January February March . April May June . July August September October November December . . . . : . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56, 92 OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted1 Goods and 'services Year and month 668. Exports 667. Balance (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 669. Imports (Mil. dol.) 622. Balance (Mil. dol.) 618. Exports Income on investment 620. Imports (Mil. dol,) 651. U.S. investment abroad (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. do',) 1987 January February March -31,190 104,315 135,505 -38,661 57,255 95,916 25, ii? 19,755 April May June -35,555 105,694 141,249 -39,819 60,015 99,834 22,744 20,554 July August September -36,687 110,922 147,609 -40,606 64,297 104,903 23,578 21,904 October November December -26,055 125,211 151,266 -40,4i4 68,699 109, 113 33,265 20,207 -28,682 127, si6 156,492 -33,446 76,447 109,893 26,750 23,955 -30,586 126,800 157,386 -31,4li 78,4?i 109,882 23,148 25,613 July August September -28,964 131,573 160,537 -30,339 80,604 110,943 24,720 27,3i6 October November December -23,659 143,626 167,285 -33,019 83,729 115,748 33,159 28,670 -26,864 142,169 169,033 -28,378 87,9i9 116,297 26,830 29,246 p-27,894 p!45,865 p!73,759 p-27,718 p90,866 pl!8,584 p26,932 p31,947 1988 January February March April May June .. 1989 January February March April May June July August September (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) October November , . December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). OCTOBER 1989 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q| INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 47. United States, index of industrial production Year and month (1977-100) 721. OECD l European countries, index of industrial production (1977=100) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1977-100) 726. France, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1977c=iOO) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (1977-1GQ) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) Revised 2 1987 126.2 127.1 127.4 113 116 116 142.2 141.5 143.6 112 113 113 105 109 110 110 113 112 114.2 117.6 120.2 124.9 126.4 127.1 April May June 127.4 128.2 129.1 116 117 116 142.5 140.2 145.5 116 117 114 109 110 111 113 114 112 117.9 122.3 118.7 127.9 127.6 128.9 July August September 130.6 131.2 131.0 117 116 117 146.7 146.7 149.0 114 117 116 111 111 111 115 116 114 118.1 113.2 117.5 130.5 132.0 133.2 132.5 133.2 133.9 119 119 118 151.4 152.0 153.7 117 117 116 111 112 112 117 116 117 122.7 121.2 116.5 134.3 135.3 135.6 January February . , . . , . . . March 134,4 134.4 134.7 120 119 120 154.4 158.5 157.9 117 117 117 112 112 113 11? 115 117 126.9 121.5 124.1 136.0 136,2 137.4 April May . June . , 135.4 136.1 136.5 120 120 r!21 157.8 156.4 159.2 117 118 120 112 113 115 117 118 119 124.8 123.1 125.4 137.5 138. B 139.0 July August September 138.0 138.5 138.6 122 123 122 157.9 162.3 162.5 118 122 121 116 116 117 119 119 120 128.5 126.0 124.1 138.6 140.6 140.2 October November December 139.4 139.9 140.4 r!22 124 125 160.6 165.2 165.7 121 120 122 113 118 117 119 120 119 127.6 129.1 132.2 139.0 138.2 139.2 140.8 140.5 140.7 125 124 124 167.4 164.4 173.2 122 122 122 118 117 117 118 118 118 127.9 130.3 126.9 138.8 139.4 139.1 141.7 141.6 r!42.Q r!26 123 126 167,0 168.0 r!71,4 126 120 125 120 118 p!20 118 116 rl!6 127.0 125.2 r!28.9 140.2 140.7 140.5 142.0 142.4 p!42.3 p!28 (NA) r!67.1 p!71.8 (NA) 128 p!26 (NA) (NA) pl!8 (NA) p!30,9 (NA) p!40.2 (NA) January February March .,. ,... ., October November December 1988 1989 January February March . , April May June , July August September October November December . , See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 58. 'Qrgunigatitm for Economic Cooperation and Development. See "New Features and Changas far This Issue," page iii. 2 94 OCTOBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q CONSUMER PRICES Japan United' States Year and month 320. Index © (1982-84-100) 320c. Change . over 6-month spans * (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index © (1982-84=100) West Germany 738c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index © (1982-84 = 100) France 735c. Change over 6-month spans l (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index © (1982-84-100) United Kingdom 736c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index © (1982-84=100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March 111.2 111.6 112.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 103.9 103.9 104.3 2.5 0.6 1.5 104.6 104.7 104.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 119.6 119.8 120.0 4.1 3.9 3.4 117,5 118.0 118.2 5.4 3.8 2,6 April May June 112.7 113.1 113.5 4.4 4.5 4.0 105.3 105.5 105.3 2.1 3.3 2.1 105.0 105.0 105.2 1.7 1,7 1.0 120,6 120.8 121.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 119,6 119.7 119.7 2.2 2.0 2.7 July August September 113.8 114.4 115.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 104.7 104.8 105.8 -0.9 1.0 -0.2 105.2 105.1 104.9 0.6 0.4 0.8 121.3 121.6 121,7 2.3 2.3 2.8 119.6 120.0 120.3 3.7 4.6 4.8 October November December 115.3 115.4 115.4 3.9 3.3 3.7 105.8 105.3 105.1 0,0 -1.7 -0.6 105.0 105.0 105.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 122.0 122.1 122.2 2.3 2.2 2.5 120.9 121.5 121.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 January February March 115.7 116.0 116.5 3.9 4.0 4.4 104.8 104.6 105.0 1.3 -0.2 0.4 105.4 105.6 105.7 1.1 1.7 1,3 122.4 122.6 123.0 2.6 2.8 2.3 121,4 121.8 122.3 3,8 3.8 4.5 April May June 117.1 117.5 118.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 105.6 105.7 105.5 1.0 2.3 1.3 106.0 106.2 106.3 2.1 2.3 1.9 123.6 123.9 124.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 124.3 124.8 125.2 5.7 7.7 8.3. July August September 118.5 119.0 119.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 105.3 105.6 106.4 1.3 2.5 1.9 106.3 106.3 106.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 124.7 125.0 125.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 125.4 126.8 127.4 9.5 8.9 8.7 October November December 120.2 120.3 120.5 4.8 4.9 5.1 106.9 106.5 106.2 1.7 -0.2 0.9 106.4 106.7 106.9 3.2 3.2 3.8 125.6 125.8 126.0 3.4 3.2 3,5 128.7 129.2 129.6 8.8 7.9 7.2 January , February March 121.1 121.6 122.3 5.6 6.2 5.9 106.0 105.7 106.2 3.0 3.4 4.0 108.1 108.4 108.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 126.5 126.8 127.2 3.9 4.2 3.7 130,4 131.4 131.9 6.9 7.9 8.3 April May June 123.1 123.8 124.1 5.2 4,3 3.6 108.1 108.7 108.6 4.4 4.4 (NA) 109.2 109.5 109.6 2.8 2.2 (NA) 128.0 128.5 128.7 3.3 3,5 (NA) 134.3 135.1 135.6 8.1 7.0 7.9 July August September 124.4 124.6 125.0 1988 1989 108.4 108.3 (NA) 109.5 109,4 (NA) 129.0 129,2 (NA) 135.7 136.1 137.0 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. OCTOBER 1989 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q CONSUMER PRICES - Continued Canada Italy Year and month 737. Index © (1982-84-100) Q| STOCK PRICES 737c. Change over 6-month spans l (Ann. rate, percent) 733. Index © (1982-84-100) 733c. Change over 6-month spans l (Ann. rate, percent) 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © 748. Japan, index of stock prices @ (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices © 746. France, index of stock prices © 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices © 747. Italy, index of stock prices © 743. Canada, index of stock prices © (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967 = 100) 1987 January . February March , 131.6 132.1 132,6 4.2 4.8 4.5 115.8 116.3 116.8 4.2 4.6 4.4 287.7 305.6 318.1 1,493.7 1,577.6 1,676.0 302.0 278.9 282.4 642.3 660.4 708,3 840.5 916.9 972.3 526.4 502.8 501.8 378.4 395,4 422.5 April May June 133,0 133.5 133.9 4.8 6.0 6.5 117.3 118.0 118.4 5.1 5.2 4.7 314.7 314.5 327.8 1,857.4 1,937.7 1,966.6 297.5 295.7 306.9 726.4 703.9 664.8 956.1 1 S 040.9 1,097.5 533.0 519.3 507.5 420.0 416,4 422,6 July August September 134.3 134.7 135.6 6.7 6.3 5.6 119,2 119.3 119.3 4.5 3.8 3.9 337.3 358.3 346.6 1,807.8 1,903.4 1,889.0 320.4 333.3 322.8 692.1 705.0 730.1 1,154.7 1,101.1 1,121.0 494.6 459.7 451.7 455.4 451.3 440.9 October .. November ,,, December , , . 136.9 137.2 137.5 5.3 3.9 3.6 119.7 120.2 120.3 3.2 2.9 3.5 304.8 266.5 262.1 1,833.0 1,677.8 1,655.2 299.4 229.2 219.4 633.1 508.5 484.9 1,027.7 794.1 810.4 449.8 366.8 361.1 341.2 336.5 357.1 January February March 138.2 138,5 139.2 3,4 3.5 4.0 120.6 121.0 121.6 3.5 4.4 4.2 272.5 280.8 289.1 1,656.1 1,797.8 1,910.6 208.4 218.4 232.4 465.0 501.8 510.3 863.3 858.5 888.0 348.9 334.0 377.1 345.4 362 . 1 374.4 April . . . May June 139,6 140.0 140.5 4.5 6.0 5,8 122.0 122.8 123.0 4.4 5.2 4.7 285.7 278.6 294.4 1,961.2 1,963.0 1,979.2 230.8 225.4 240.6 523.6 546.1 609.5 879.6 878.4 908.7 383.2 359.7 372.7 377.4 367.1 388.9 July August September 140.9 141.5 142.2 6.0 7.1 7.0 123.7 124.1 124.2 4.8 3.6 3.6 292.7 286.9 291.5 1,972.0 1,988,3 1,924.2 247.6 248.1 254.8 632.4 618.7 636,1 932.0 908.5 872.4 399.7 416.5 392.9 381.6 371.3 371.0 October November December . . . . . . . 143.3 144.5 145.0 6.9 6.7 7.0 124.8 125.1 125.1 4.4 4.2 4.6 301.8 294.8 300.8 1,923.3 2,008.1 2,084.8 266.3 266.5 273.7 682.9 698.4 746.7 908.5 899.5 865.1 431.9 432.9 436.4 383.7 372.3 383.0 146.1 147,3 148.0 7.8 6.9 7.4 125.7 126.6 127.2 4.5 6.2 7.2 310.5 319.8 318.4 2,207.6 2,237.4 2,188.6 284.2 284.2 287.3 799.8 814.5 810.8 926.6 1,007.8 1,029.5 433.8 411.7 409,6 408.7 403.6 404.3 149,0 149.6 150.3 7,0 6.4 6.0 127.6 128.9 129.6 6.4 5.8 6.1 328.8 341.5 352.2 2,231.0 2,284.3 2,241.9 295.9 295.9 309.7 838.9 847.3 885.0 1,023.5 1,053.6 1,065.6 426.8 422.2 447.0 409.9 418.9 425.0 361.1 377.0 377.8 2,287.9 r2,383.6 rp2,370.8 313.4 328.6 (NA) 890.5 904.1 rp947.5 <NA) 476.9 p505.7 rp510.3 448.7 453.1 445.5 p380.2 p2,414.6 p482.4 P448.8 1988 .... 1989 January February March April May June . . , .. July August September 150.7 150.9 151.6 130.4 130,5 130,7 October , , . . . . . , . November December . . . . . . . P945.7 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. 1 Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 OCTOBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected leading index components 92. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries 1 Year and month (Bil. dol.) 83. Index of consumer expectations 1 2 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 1 ® Smoothed3 Actual Selected lagging index components Smoothed3 Actual (Bil. dol.) (1st Q 1966=100} 120. Change in consumer price index for services 1 Smoothed3 Actual (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 5.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.0 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March -3.66 -1.17 0.78 -0.79 -1.01 -0.90 80.9 81.6 83.3 11.0 -5.1 2.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 April May June 4.20 3.89 3.58 -0.15 0.84 1.78 84.7 80.6 80.8 -9.1 -2.6 -2.6 -1.4 -2.1 -2.6 5.2 4.1 2.0 4.2 4.4 4.1 July August September 4.90 2.04 83,. 3 85.8 84.2 -8.4 -3.7 -0.12 2.75 3.23 3.05 -2. ,6 0.1 4.1 6.2 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 October November December 2.40 1.37 1.16 2.87 2.55 2.18 80.4 72.7 76.7 -7.6 0.7 1.2 0.7 5.1 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 2.58 2.24 2,02 1.95 1.38 80.9 81.9 85.2 0.8 1.4 3.4 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.9 4.8 1.25 0.99 1.59 82.4 87.3 85.7 -9.1 -3.4 2.9 1.8 1.8 3.9 4.9 3.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 82.3 88.8 89.5 -6.7 -0.9 0.7 0.3 3.9 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.5 2.4 2.2 1.0 5.3 5.8 5.8 4.6 4.9 5.2 0.4 1.0 3.5 4,8 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.5 2.6 1.6 2.8 5.7 3.7 5,2 5.1 4.8 6.6 3.7 1.8 4.9 4.8 4.4 9.2 13.0 1.8 -4.3 1988 January . . . . : , . . . February March April May June . .-2.01 2.86 -0.10 6.59 3.6 4.5 13.9 7.2 July August September -0.20 1.90 2.24 2.11 October November December 2.81 0.43 6.58 2.12 1.91 2.41 87.0 86.3 85.5 13.8 -8.2 -5.9 2.56 1.06 1.88 2.72 2.68 2.55 89.9 88.8 87.6 17.7 3.80 2.91 2.64 2.31 2.20 83.2 80.1 82.0 r2.81 r-2.00 pi. 59 r2.22 rl.66 pi. 32 85.5 80.3 88.6 1.32 3.02 7.2 -0.2 1989 January February March April May June -0.20 . . . . July August September 1.8 7,2 -15.0 0.0 rO.9 4.4 r3.5 p2.6 rl.O rl.l rl.5 pi. 8 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13 and 15. 'These series reached high values before 1987: series 92 actual (8.31), series 92 smoothed (4.40), and series 83 (97.7) in March 1984; series 62 actual (29.6) in March 1986 and smoothed (5.2) in March 1985; and series 120 actual (8.4) in July 1984 and smoothed (5.8) in September 1984. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. 3 This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. OCTOBER 1989 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year Jan. Feb. Mar. 910. 19S4. 1957] 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1964! 1965. 1966. 1968*. 19?o! 1971, 1972. 1973. 1974, 1975. 1976, 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1986. 41,4 48.2 51.1 §0.0 46.5 53.8 55. 0 54,2 59.9 62.2 66.1 71,7 75.8 73.3 78.0 83.1 79.0 79,8 88.1 97.3 95.5 78.0 93.0 98.5 101.9 105.3 101.2 102,8 97.2 106,8 123. 1 121. S 128,1 136.8 139.3 41,8 49.1 50,7 49.8 46.1 54.5 34,3 54,6 60.6 62,8 66.6 71.7 76,0 72.9 78.7 82,9 77,9 80.8 89,0 97.8 94,4 78.0 94,0 99,3 102.9 105.5 101.5 101.5 98.9 109.1 123.4 121.8 129.0 137.6 141.0 Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 1964*. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972, 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981, 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988, 12.2 0.0 42.4 49.9 51.0 49 .1 46.7 55.3 53.4 56.1 60.3 63.8 67.5 72.0 76.7 43,0 50.2 50,2 49,1 47.6 55.4 53.5 56.8 59.7 64.3 68.0 72.6 75.9 43,6 50.3 49.9 49.0 48,5 55.4 53.5 57,4 59.1 64,2 68.2 72.5 75.4 44.1 50.8 50,3 48.7 49.7 55.2 53.7 57.5 59.5 64.1 69.0 72.8 75.1 44.3 50.6 50.4 48.6 50.6 54.7 53.9 58.4 59.6 64.3 69.5 72.7 74.4 44.9 51.0 50.2 47.9 51.5 54.8 54.0 58.0 60.0 64.8 70,1 73.3 74.0 79.2 82.7 77,2 81,8 89.9 97*8 94.9 78.7 94,4 99.7 103.0 106.1 98.0 102.0 98.3 111,4 123.3 122.4 130.1 138.1 141.4 78.5 83.1 76,3 82,8 90.3 97.6 93.1 81.2 94.4 100.3 104.1 104.5 95.3 103.5 99,1 113.5 123.3 121.9 131.4 138.3 ' 79.0 82.9 76.7 83.2 90.8 97.6 92.7 83.1 95.3 100.8 104.3 105.1 93.6 103.7 99.4 115.3 123.0 122.7 131.3 139.2 79.2 82.3 76.9 83.3 91.4 97.5 91.1 84.3 96.1 101.3 104.5 104.6 94,9 102.7 98.8 116.9 121.8 123.9 132.2 140.6 79,6 81. 8 76.6 83.3 92.5 97.4 90.0 85.7 97.3 101.1 104.6 103.1 96.9 102.0 99.4 116.2 121.3 124,3 132.7 142.0 ' 79.2 81.7 76.6 83.4 93.6 96.6 87.7 86.9 97.4 101.5 105.0 102.7 98.9 102.1 98.8 118.4 120.9 125.3 132.8 143,3 4, 80.2 81.9 76.7 83.9 94,5 97,0 85.3 88.2 97.7 101,9 106.1 103.0 101.1 100.0 100.6 119.6 120,6 126.0 133.0 142.9 -4.6 5.9 45.8 50.9 50.4 47.5 52.1 54.5 53.8 58.8 60.2 65,1 70.3 74.1 73.3 76.9 81.4 81.1 76.5 84.6 95.0 96.9 83.4 89.2 97.5 101.8 107 .1 101.6 102.5 98,5 101.8 121,1 119.4 126.1 134.3 142.3 * 46.7 51,2 50.6 47.0 53.0 54,0 53.7 59,4 61.2 65.4 70.8 74.9 73,1 77.2 81.9 80.5 76,9 85.4 95.9 97,2 81.1 90.1 98.0 102.3 106.3 100.8 104.1 97.8 103.0 121.9 120.1 126.2 135.3 140.3 Dec. IQ II Q = 3.7 -15.5 36.9 -3.6 -13.1 -1.1 7.4 0.0 -7.J 26.9 16.3 12.6 3.8 = 13.0 0.0 13.7 10,2 12.4 2.3 3.6 = 14,2 23.1 29,1 3.0 3.0 8.8 6.5 11.3 5.2 4.9 1.2 7,0 = 34.4 6.1 = 7,0 28.4 •1.0 6.1 10,7 = 20.5 45.5 0.0 7.5 13,6 = 16.7 -28. 5 19.1 10.2 25.1 0.0 -4.8 12.7 S ,9 -1 7 -13.' IS. 5, 46.6 51.1 50,5 47.0 52.7 54.6 53.7 59.4 61.0 65.4 70.8 74.9 78.7 87,0 96.8 95.8 79.1 90.6 98.8 103.1 105.4 100,6 102.8 97.8 104.7 122.1 120.3 127.7 137.2 139,7 72.9 78.6 82.9 78,0 80.8 89.0 97.6 94.9 78.2 93.8 99.2 102,6 105.6 100.2 102.1 98.1 109.1 123.3 121.9 129.1 137.5 73.7 78.9 82. 8 76,6 83.1 90.8 97.6 92.3 82.9 95.3 100.8 104.3 104,7 94.6 103.3 99.1 115.2 122.7 122.8 131.6 139.4 76,2 79.7 81.8 76,6 83.5 93,5 97.0 87.7 36.9 97.5 101.5 105.2 102.9 99.0 101.4 99.6 118.7 120.9 125.2 132.8 142.7 . 77.4 81.9 80.6 77.4 85.7 95,9 96.6 81.2 90.0 98.1 102,4 106.3 101.0 103.1 98,0 103.2 121.7 119.9 126.7 135.6 140.8 4 , 6,0 16.2 ao.2 12.6 24.2 -4.7 -16.0 23,6 2.2 2.2 -7.9 4.9 - .6 4.9 -11.9 -4.6 -9.7 -2,9 -6.9 -7.3 -3.9 2.6 -8.5 1,7 -10.4 - .4 - .4 17.9 -10,5 -2.2 13.0 30,2 0,0 10.6 19.4 -12.2 13.4 0.7 0.8 15.2 -4.1 3,8 4.9 4.4 -2.2 13.8 9.7 10.9 10.4 -6.3 5.7 3.5 13.9 -10.8 5,7 8.9 13.8 -3.2 3.7 7.0 11.8 -4.8 10.8 8,8 5.2 7.2 5.9 7.4 2.4 -7.5 3.9 11.7 4,6 -7.2 5.0 6.5 13.2 -6.3 6.2 -7.1 -4.6 0.0 -5.9 -1.5 0.0 1.5 16.2 3.0 1.6 7.4 19.5 -11.1 -3.1 10.5 7.6 -8.S 6.5 12.0 6.0 -4.4 32.0 25.0 5,9 2.2 -14.1 16.7 0.3 -1,7 -1.1 7.7 5.5 -1.9 -1.0 3.0 11.0 -8.0 11.8 15,8 5.1 -28.3 19.5 -1.2 -23.7 14.5 3.8 -28.5 12.8 -16.0 -25,9 6.9 4.2 -3.4 -1.4 -1.2 -14.8 32.1 3.8 0.2 2.7 -7.8 -2.7 3.0 28,1 6.6 6.1 -5.1 -10.0 3.5 2.3 21.3 -1.8 -22.9 19.9 7,0 2.5 6.4 -5.6 28.8 -9.6 8,2 9.7 -4.5 -26.0 11.4 4.7 4.9 -2.1 -8.9 8.1 -8.3 17.4 8.8 7.0 2.4 7.9 ~n A 5.7 13.3 -8,5 A ft -9.4 -26.7 18,2 -2.3 1.2 -15.9 28.4 -7.9 7.5 4,9 4.7 -4.6 27.8 1,2 -7.0 4.8 13,3 3.6 30,2 -22,1 24.2 -1.2 11.9 -15.1 17.9 -16,6 15.3 6.1 -8.6 -9.1 20.4 -8.2 15.1 9.8 -9.7 -2.4 -14.0 0.0 21.7 -4.8 3.9 4.6 12.6 -3.9 10.1 0.9 11. « -2.9 6.9 1.8 -3,3 -11,3 1.0 7,3 1.0 2.0 15.2 7,2 5.3 -5.0 8. 7 2.7 5.3 7,6 7 9 22.7 1.6 6.9 19.3 15.0 7.2 -8.2 13,7 -6.7 -2.2 -4.2 20,1 -4.9 -15.6 910C. C H A N G E IN COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 11 LEAD I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 3-MONTH S P A N S BUT) { 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957, 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964. 1963. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973, 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983, 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988, 4.9 22.2 5.9 20.9 10.0 14.9 12.0 9.3 16.1 4.9 17.0 7.4 = 6.2 -7.4 -7.0 -0,9 = 7.0 1.7 -5.5 13.7 = 4,0 18.3 2.2 6.9 8.3 10,9 7.5 -11.1 14,8 2.7 10.7 8.7 -5.8 17.1 -5.8 9.9 8,7 6.0 -1.1 8,0 5.0 = 12.3 21.9 18.0 •=-12,4 13,3 4,8 10.8 8.8 5,2 7.1 -1.1 5.8 2.0 = 14,1 16,7 14.0 4.8 = 2,2 2.6 0,0 -13,0 15,9 10.4 -11.0 = 14.4 18.5 5.4 = 3.7 = 2,0 17.9 3.7 = 3.0 2,7 11. a = 9.6 4.6 as. 9 S.0 5.8 9.2 7.0 2.0 28*.2 4,0 7.2 7,7 2.6 5.0 -3.2 28.3 12,5 5,7 2 .4 -8.7 27.1 16.3 0.8 0.8 -9.5 0.8 15.2 -9.5 5.8 2.3 10,4 = 5 .2 1 .9 3.0 11.8 -0.7 0.0 3.8 4.2 6 .2 3.8 0,7 9.4 4.6 6.4 4.5 0.6 4.5 7.3 3.9 1.5 0.0 -6.0 12.4 8.3 10.9 0.0 -1.9 -1.5 7.5 6.8 14.4 5.7 -6.1 1.6 2.4 10.1 16.7 1.0 -5.7 -0.5 1.0 12.9 12,3 5.1 - .9 - .0 .9 1 .3 8.2 9.4 -3.4 -0.5 6.4 11.3 = 9.7 17.4 6.2 7.5 -7.0 28.8 = 15,1 31.6 -19.9 19.6 -2 .1 1 .8 -26.3 17.4 6.2 6.6 3,2 -3.0 -U5 -5.5 -S.3 -8.8 -5.7 -7.2 -9.0 -1.6 -1.1 2.8 8.1 27.6 0.7 1.3 10,7 9.0 2.0 24.7 -1.3 3.0 7.3 4.7 2.3 2.8 2.1 21.3 -4.8 5.0 6.6 7,4 7,6 -5,7 1.2 17.6 -6.3 8.1 4.0 11.1 2.8 -6.0 -2,4 11.2 »6.7 8.7 4.6 12.3 6.6 -10.1 -13.0 10.0 10.2 -6.1 5.9 4.9 0.8 2.8 -15.8 18.1 12,4 -2.6 2.9 7.7 -8.1 0.0 -8.5 17,3 8.6 -1.0 5.5 13.2 -8.7 4.0 -5.2 21.1 6.8 7.2 6.5 7.7 -8.2 5.7 -3.3 4,9 27.2 3.2 4.8 9.2, 4.7 5.0 e.'o -12.7 24.1 23.5 4.8 -12.5 20.4 24.2 2.4 -10.4 11.3 3.0 7.7 14.0 6.3 -7.1 11.7 5.3 10.8 -0, 14. -6. 5, 2.5 8.5 3.4 3.4 9.S 4.1 -0.2 9. 12. 6. 7. 11. 3.7 14,3 -5.7 1.6 9.9 10.2 7,5 10.9 -8.0 10.8 15.6 10.1 5.8 8.6 -10.0 18.4 17.6 10.0 -1.5 5.5 2.3 -13.1 18.2 14.1 9. 2. -2. -2. 7. 8. 12.4 5.2 -3.7 -0.7 3.4 12.8 5. 11. -7, 10. 14. 10.1 -23.5 18.2 -8,1 0.3 14.2 -11. 28. 8. -23.1 18.9 5.6 2,7 -25.5 15.0 3.8 2.8 -6.8 26.2 -9.7 5.0 10.3 -5.6 7.2 4.0 6.6 2.9 -5.9 10.3 -9.8 18.8 9.3 1.2 5.0 9.5 -8.3 3.2 -26.1 11.3 NOTE: Series 910 contains r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1984. The percent changes are shown for the f i r s t time since before the overall revision of the composite Index early this year. Percent changes are centered w i t h i n the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 23.5 2,9 0.0 -10.4 15.1 = 2.2 13.8 11.8 5.0 2.8 7.5 9.6 -3*9 7.0 2.4 6,7 -0.8 13.8 3.2 1.6 -7,4 25.2 -1.5 7 .0 11 .2 7.0 -26.9 15.6 14,8 8.6 -1.5 -7.4 14.3 5,1 -2.5 11,8 3.5 6,4 8.6 6.4 -3.4 7.6 5.7 -2.4 -1.1 10.8 11.3 -0.8 -16,8 15.5 9.5 4.4 2. -4, -A! 7, 17.0 -1.3 6.3 7.6 2.2 4 2 AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D 12,7 3,2 1.6 -4.0 27.7 20, a 44.0 50.3 50.5 48.6 49.3 54.8 53.8 57.2 60.2 64.2 68.7 73.0 75.0 75.0 79.8 82.0 77.2 83.3 92.3 97,2 89.0 84. S 96.2 101.0 104.6 103.6 99.2 101.2 100.0 116,2 121.7 124.2 132.3 140.1 142,8 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 2.4 -2.4 24,0 -10.3 4.6 20.5 2.0 3.8 9.1 -1.6 -10.6 -1 .2 -13.6 21.9 Annual SPANS 10.1 -7.1 34.1 -4.2 4.6 2.1 8.4 -1,9 15,0 5.1 -4.7 -6,9 -2.4 2S.2 0.0 0.0 13.4 -11.4 -1.9 3.6 -1.6 -7.6 15.7 3.1 -8,3 3.2 1.5 8.2 -1.2 -18.9 18.8 10.6 6.1 2.3 -5.6 18.0 -11.0 -7,0 18,0 -11.1 12.4 8.5 0.0 44.4 50,8 50.3 48.4 SO. 6 54.9 53.9 58.0 59.7 64.4 69.5 72.9 19,5 -17.3 25.7 2.2 2.3 16.0 -11.3 9.8 9.3 10.5 -11.8 12.2 7.9 = 2. 6. 6. 6. 0, -5. 32. 12. 6. 2. 7. -19. 2. 3.7 20.8 -2.9 8.2 -0.9 43.0 50.1 50.4 49.1 47.6 55.4 53.5 56.8 59.7 64.1 67.9 72.4 26.3 14,7 = 2!s 22.4 = 4.3 11, ft 0.0 10.2 9.5 8,8 3.2 8.6 -1.3 12.3 -16.5 18,1 16.1 41.7 49.0 50.9 49.8 46.4 54.5 54.2 54,7 60.4 62.8 66.6 71.8 47.4 51.3 50.4 46.6 52.9 55.2 53.7 59.9 61.7 65.6 71.2 75.6 72.8 78,1 82.3 2 .9 18.1 2.4 -9.3 5.3 O.O 0,0 16.3 -5.8 9.9 9.3 -1. -3. 5. -10, IV Q 17.5 18.4 4.8 = 7.0 10.9 19,1 -18.2 19.1 0.0 10.0 7.5 6.9 IS.2 =4.8 7.9 -2.9 = 10.3 15.9 12 .8 III Q 5.6 12.0 =9.0 = 4,7 -9.8 16,8 -14.2 9.2 15,0 12.2 9.5 0.0 3,2 -6.4 11,3 -2.9 -15.3 16.1 13,0 i <;.? Nov. A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D 42.0 49.7 50.9 49.5 46.5 55.3 53.4 55.4 60,6 63.3 67.0 72.1 76.9 TK 910C. C H A N G E IN COMPOSITE I N D E X 0F 11 L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 1-MON ( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T ) 1954, 1955. 19S6, 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. Oct. COMPOSITE I W D E X OF 11 L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R S (1982-100) -4.1 2.0 1,8 21.2 -4.1 5.4 6.0 7,7 4.2 14.8 8.2 -1.6 -7.2 14.6 3.1 -1.4 11.0 3.6 6.5 8.4 6.0 -3.0 6.6 6.1 -3.0 -1.4 10.8 11.4 -0,4 -17,1 15.6 8.0 4.1 3.3 -4.5 4.0 -5.2 7.6 17.0 -1.3 5.6 7.2 2,7 3.8 (OCTOBER 1989) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Feb. Jan. Mar. Apr. May 45,3 48,4 52.0 53.2 47.3 52.3 54.2 51.1 55.7 57.3 60.4 65,9 72.2 74.7 78.4 83.1 83.3 81.5 86.6 95.1 95.2 84.4 91.0 96,6 103.5 112 .0 109.5 108.0 102.6 98.4 110,7 115,7 117.7 45.1 49.0 52.4 52.6 46.6 53.2 54.2 51.4 56.0 57,7 61.1 66.2 72.3 74.8 78,7 83.2 83.0 81.8 87.5 95.0 94.7 84.8 91.7 97.2 106.0 110.2 44.8 49.6 52.1 52.4 46.7 53.7 53.9 52.0 56 .0 58.0 61.5 66.6 72.7 74.8 79.2 83.4 82,7 82.2 87.8 95.4 95.2 84.8 92.0 97.8 106.4 111.4 45.0 49.8 52.1 52.5 47.3 53,9 53,6 52.7 56.0 58.1 61.6 67.1 73.5 75.0 79.8 83.8 82.4 82 .4 87.6 95.8 95.2 85.1 92.2 98.6 107.2 111.1 107.8 102,0 99.1 111.0 116.0 119.2 107.4 101.7 100.2 111.4 116.0 118.4 107,9 100.5 101.4 112.5 115.7 118.2 126,7 126.9 127.2 128,2 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1 Nov. Dec. IQ II Q Hi Q IV Q Annual 9 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD ( 1 9 8 2 = 100) 45.9 47.5 52.0 53.4 47.9 51.6 54.5 50.8 55.3 57.1 60.3 65.1 71.3 74,7 78.1 82.4 83,3 81.3 85.7 95.2 95.6 85.9 90.8 95.7 102.1 110.9 110.5 108.2 103.0 97.6 110.2 115.2 117.8 45.9 47.2 52.0 52.9 48.9 51.1 54.7 51.0 54.7 56.6 59.7 64.7 70.9 75.0 77.5 82.0 83.5 81.5 85.4 94.4 96.3 87.2 89.8 95.3 101.1 110.5 111 .0 108.5 102.1 97.9 109.1 114.7 117.9 119.3 125.2 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957. . . 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... 1962.., 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969.,, 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978. . . 1979... 1980. . . 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987 ... 1988... 920C. 126.0 CHA N G E I N 44.8 50.4 50.3 52.5 48.0 53.5 53.3 52.8 56.3 58.4 62.2 67.9 73.6 75.2 80.2 84.4 82.5 82.1 88.2 96.2 95.2 85.5 92.6 99.3 107 .4 111.0 104.1 108.4 99.6 102.3 113.0 115.4 118.2 122.4 128.6 46 .6 51.9 53.2 49.6 50.2 53,9 51.2 55.1 56.6 59.6 45.7 47.7 52.0 53.2 48.0 51.7 54.5 51.0 55.2 57.0 45.0 49.5 52.2 52.5 46.9 53,6 53,9 52.0 56.0 57.9 44.9 50,5 51.5 52.3 48.5 52.3 53.0 53.2 56.4 58.5 98.3 91.5 87.7 94.1 101,3 110.1 110.6 108.1 105.1 97.2 106,2 114.2 116.9 119.4 124.6 130.3 70.5 74.5 77.9 81.9 84.4 80.9 84.2 94.1 97.2 88.6 88.3 95.2 101.8 110.9 110.4 108.5 103.8 97.0 10? .6 114.9 117.7 120.7 126.1 131.1 65.2 71.5 74.8 78.0 82.5 83.4 81.4 85.9 94.9 95.7 85.8 90.5 95.9 102.2 111.1 110.3 108,2 102.6 98.0 110.0 115.2 117.8 120.4 126.0 66.6 72,8 74.9 79.2 83.5 82.7 82.1 87.6 95.4 95.0 84.9 92.0 97.9 106 ,5 110.9 105.6 107.7 101.4 100.2 111.6 115 .9 118.6 121.3 127.4 68.1 73.8 75.6 80.3 84.6 82.2 82.2 89.3 96.2 94.6 86.5 92.8 99.8 108.0 110.7 104.9 108.1 98.9 102.8 113.2 116.0 118.7 122,8 128.9 44.8 50.3 51.9 52.5 48.5 51.8 53.0 53.3 56.5 58.4 62.6 68.0 73.8 75.8 80.2 84.6 82.1 81.8 45,0 50.8 52.4 51.9 48.9 51.7 52,7 53.4 56.4 58.8 63.0 68.3 73.9 75.8 80.5 84.8 81.9 82.6 45.3 51.2 52.9 51.3 49.3 51.4 52.6 54.1 56.6 59.2 62.4 69.1 74.4 75.6 81.0 85.1 80.1 82.7 46.2 51.6 52.7 50.6 50.5 52.1 51.8 54.8 56.9 59,0 63.5 69.8 74.3 76.9 81.7 84.4 79.4 83.4 96.1 94.5 86.7 92.7 99.6 108.0 110.8 104.9 108.3 98.9 102.1 113.1 116.2 118.5 123.0 129.0 96.4 94.1 87.2 93.0 100.4 108.5 110.4 105.6 107.5 98.2 104.1 113.5 116.3 119,4 123.1 129.0 97.5 93.7 87.7 92,7 100.9 109.5 110.7 107,1 106,3 97.3 105.4 113.4 116.3 119.0 124.9 130.4 C O M P O S I T E I N D E X O F 4 R O U G H L Y C O I N C I D E N T I K E I C A T O R S OVER 1-MOKTH 1956 . . , 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963. . . 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 197 1 ... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982 .. . 1983... 1984... 1985.,. 1986... 1987... 1988. .. A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D -9.9 16.6 2.3 -6.6 -15.7 23.8 19.3 -4.6 -8.4 0.0 2.0 1.9 7.0 8.4 -6.0 0,0 7.9 0.0 12.0 -22.0 12.4 -4,3 -4.6 14.0 , 11.1 12.7 7.7 7.0 -4.7 9.7 -14.6 25.3 0.0 -4.4 -14.0 17.6 -6.4 7.3 9.0 4.3 2.0 15.8 16,2 0,0 4.7 -5.2 15.9 9.6 -12.7 -16.4 22.7 0.0 7.3 6.7 8.7 14.8 5.6 1.7 1.6 4,7 -7.7 15.7 -6.7 -4.5 2.6 11.9 -6.4 14.9 0.0 6 .4 8.1 7.5 6.8 0.0 7.9 5.5 4,9 0.0 2.3 16.6 4.6 -6.5 17.4 0.0 2 .1 2.0 9.4 14.0 3.3 9.5 -5.2 15.5 -34.4 0.0 19.3 -8.6 -6.5 2.3 0.0 -2.4 45,6 0.0 13.2 -32.1 -6.5 12.0 5.5 12.6 12.2 -12.9 10.4 -2.3 -6,6 2,3 8.3 9.9 12.1 -13.0 10.3 -6.7 -2.3 16.9 26.6 9,8 -4.4 -15.2 33.5 17.6 -16.8 16.7 10.9 7.2 12.0 -21.3 -6.9 50.3 -13.0 6.8 -8.2 16.6 0.8 0.3 -17.2 17.9 2.9 -0.6 -2.5 12,2 1,0 -5.0 0.9 13.1 -4.3 13.2 0.1 8.6 7,8 -4.3 14.3 -14.3 -6,§ 5.5 6.4 12,3 15.3 1.6 3.2 6.2 0.0 8.0 1.8 3.3 10.0 0.0 8.5 7.9 5.4 1.6 0.0 4.6 8.5 -10.8 15.0 8.4 -3.1 7.7 -4.0 23.3 12.9 -1.6 22.7 10.9 12.9 22.9 12.7 3.3 16.8 3.0 5.1 5.6 8.5 10.1 1.2 2.8 5.7 8.3 7.5 7.5 1.6 7 .4 5.0 9.4 7.5 2.2 4.4 3.6 -12.1 9.3 18.5 3.9 -10,6 -17.4 22 .4 1.3 -7.9 -4.2 6.7 0.0 -18,0 11.7 18,1 -2. 1 2.1 -13.1 -8.2 -2.8 -2.9 4.3 10.7 -8.4 -16.5 14.2 5.2 12.5 4.4 -5.3 -3.3 11.1 -3.6 0.0 3,0 13.4 -1.3 -4.9 -19,1 2.7 11.9 17 .8 12.6 -10.3 -2.2 -4.6 10.3 -4,2 4.5 13.2 -1.3 -6.1 5.8 9.6 7.7 33.2 -17.7 -20.7 -2.2 -6.8 8.9 -4.3 6.0 4.2 5.2 6.5 0.0 4.0 7.7 4.6 13.9 -22.0 -4.4 -3.5 14,2 -4.3 3,0 -2,7 5.1 0.0 4.3 2.6 10,3 9.4 -3.2 -9.8 5.7 -13.3 15.4 1.5 -4.3 8.5 5.1 0,0 5.8 5.3 8.9 2.3 -1.1 -2.3 5.7 -10.2 11.2 -5.7 -4.3 17.6 -J.2 -2.9 12.4 11.3 3.8 -23.4 1.5 20.3 14,6 -10.0 10.6 20.0 10.3 25.2 12.1 15.2 -12.6 -5.0 3.1 12.1 4.4 -4.3 4.5 4.9 3.0 18.2 1 .3 3.7 7.1 4.0 10.1 7,1 -3.8 6.1 0.0 19.7 4.9 8.5 15.0 6.1 -17.7 13.1 6.1 3.4 5.4 8.6 -2.1 9.6 -1.1 -8.1 -2.3 -4.2 8.3 -8.5 -8.2 26.2 5.4 -1.0 18.5 5.3 -1.0 0.0 3.2 16.4 1.0 0.0 -7.8 1.0 -3.1 -2.0 3.0 -3.1 0.0 9.3 8.6 3,1 6.0 1 .0 9,5 1.0 0.0 3,3 18.4 -12,6 -10.5 16.1 -1.1 0,0 -3.9 19.0 13,8 -1.1 11.8 -12,7 -1.2 9.5 8.8 6.4 4.1 -2,8 -0.9 -2.1 4.5 -13.9 -2.4 17.0 7.6 8.5 13,9 15.4 7.6 4.3 -3.0 -1 .8 -3.8 6.1 12.2 2.9 0.0 1.8 2.2 -2 .3 -17.5 -0,3 -7.9 12.8 6.7 0.0 2.2 1.7 4.9 -2.6 12.1 0,8 -5 .2 0.0 12.8 -2.6 11.9 -15.1 -0.8 12.6 2.3 0,0 5.8 -1.5 0.8 16,3 -13.4 0.0 4.5 13.1 15.0 17.9 -8.6 -4.8 1.5 15,3 8.7 2.3 -4,5 14,2 -15.4 -8.8 11.3 -14.8 -13.7 1 .5 .3 - .8 1 .7 -16.6 11. 1 18.1 -10.9 13.4 -17.4 15.4 28,3 -11.6 4.5 1.1 -18,2 14.8 6.1 -1 .7 -4.4 1.0 10.8 -5.1 11.4 -4.2 13.9 -14.5 -6.1 8.7 -15.9 14.7 16.2 -10.4 9,9 ,2 .9 5.6 10.6 3.4 15.6 10.8 4.8 8.1 9.5 5.7 7 .9 9.2 4,4 6,0 7.8 .9 .7 -0.9 -12.5 8.1 17.1 9.5 -12.1 4.7 6.2 7.0 8.0 -0.7 12.8 -11,3 -6,7 17.1 3.9 2.4 3.1 5.3 4.1 4.1 11.6 7.1 -1.9 -4.8 8.0 18.4 3.4 -21.4 5.1 9.8 5.7 9.1 0.0 11.4 -13,1 -4.8 14.1 5.0 4.9 4,4 10.1 6 .7 6.7 10.4 5,0 -7.3 7.2 13.7 12.8 -4.8 -25.0 9.9 11,7 0.8 3,7 1,1 5,3 -14.9 2,5 14.8 4.7 0.7 5.1 5.2 -4.2 4.8 11.2 5,6 -8.3 -16.9 12.1 7.1 10,3 1.9 -5.3 -1.3 -4.2 4.2 11.7 3,6 2,5 4.2 4.0 4 .0 1 .4 7.0 4.7 -3.2 3.5 6.0 3.0 0,1 0.6 4.9 8.8 12.8 0.5 -15.7 -0,4 -7.3 12.5 6.2 0.2 0,2 2.3 4.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 -5.5 0.7 12. 1 3.7 -4.5 10.1 2.3 7.2 6.4 -1.9 5.3 -1.9 -9.4 10.5 3.7 2.0 2.4 6.6 4.7 4.4 10,7 11.8 3.1 9.3 6.6 -3.4 -3.4 9,9 16.1 2.7 -19.5 6.6 9.2 4.5 6,9 0.1 9,8 -13,1 -3.0 15,3 4.5 4,3 2.6 'j. 5 5,1 920C. 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968. . . 1969... 1970. . . 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1 9 85 ... 1986... 1987... 1988... 1988... CHANGE IN COMPOSITE -8.4 16.4 0.8 0.0 -17.3 17.8 2,2 -0.8 -6.8 16.1 3. 1 -2.2 -17.5 17.5 -9.2 18.9 0.8 -7.3 -9.7 17.3 3.2 9.8 1. 9. 10. 8. 2. 6.4 3.5 -5.1 9.9 11.5 9.6 -10.5 -22.3 5.0 5.5 8.3 10.0 1.1 2.6 6.0 -5.1 3.0 11.9 4,3 -8,0 -17,7 8.0 9.7 6.5 8.2 5.7 8.2 11.3 2.2 4.9 7 .4 10.4 3.6 2.8 7.3 5.4 2.9 4.9 9.4 10.2 2.1 5.6 1.3 8.1 -1.1 6.3 6.0 -2.4 1.5 10.2 2.6 -6.5 -10.6. 8.1 0.5 5.8 4.9 -2.9 4.5 10.2 0.8 -1.7 -5.0 1.6 7.3 3.4 -4.3 4,5 4.7 3,0 0,0 3.4 2.2 7,8 5.9 -2.4 1.5 3.2 5.1 2.1 3.3 7.0 3.2 2.9 -0.4 0.4 -7.8 1.7 15.9 3.5 3.1 5.5 4.6 6.0 6.8 4.0 -3.2 -1.8 - .5 .9 1 .0 .8 8.2 20.8 -1.1 -12.4 -2.6 -0,4 .0 .2 .6 .5 .2 .5 9,1 17.9 1.8 -17.8 -2.9 -5.0 11.1 4.4 2.8 2.1 0,7 3.9 8.5 15.1 -3.2 -17.7 -0,4 -7.9 12.8 6.7 0.0 1.7 1.7 4.8 4.8 8.9 5.4 2.9 -11.7 2.2 -9,1 13.6 7.4 -2.1 -3,3 4.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.9 -2.9 -1.9 7.5 3.0 -2.9 9.3 3.1 7.6 6.2 -2.1 -1.1 3.4 -10.6 7.8 6.2 0.7 0,3 6.1 5.8 5,8 4.3 3.6 4.9 -2.4 1 .0 12.4 2.5 -4.5 10.2 3.5 7.5 4.9 -2.5 5.1 -1.5 -8.8 11.1 3.6 2 .1 4. 1 5.4 2.5 2.5 2. 1 4.1 3.4 -11.1 3.0 16.3 5.5 -6.2 10.7 0.4 6.6 8.1 -1.1 12.0 -7.5 -8,9 12.7 1.4 3.2 2.7 8.4 5.7 5.7 1.9 13.1 : .6 1.0 1.0 4.4 4.4 NOTE: Series 920 contains revisions beginning with 1984. The percent changes are shown for the first time since before the overall revision of the composite index early this year. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 1.2 11.6 4,0 -6.4 2.6 9.3 -2.4 1.3 12,5 2.6 15.3 9.0 6.6 = 16.5 12.3 20.4 -10.7 13.5 1.6 5.8 11.8 13.5 3.4 12.1 7.2 -1.7 -2.7 8,1 18.5 4.1 10,4 3,5 7.6 5,0 -2.5 5.2 -1.3 -8.8 11.7 3,6 2 .2 4.2 5.4 2.5 5.2 10.3 5.7 9.2 0.0 11.6 -13.1 -4,7 14.2 5.1 5,0 4,7 10.5 6,8 0.3 8.1 7,0 9.3 = 0.1 -0.9 -4.1 -6.3 11.2 6.9 2.5 2.8 4.9 4.1 •=4,7 7.9 2.9 S.4 8.8 9.2 5.8 4. a 5.2 3.2 -3,6 4.2 12 ,0 3,5 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -10.6 11.7 3. 1 5.4 -19.7 9.0 19.7 -7,5 i!o 1.9 45,4 49.6 52,2 52.3 48,3 52.5 53.3 52.7 56,1 58.2 61.9 67.4 73.1 75.5 79.8 83.8 82.1 82.3 88.9 96.0 94.2 86.3 92.3 98.7 106,7 110,8 107.2 107.3 100.0 101.9 112.2 116 .0 118.7 122.4 128. 2 SPANS ' 1954... 1955... 46,0 51,6 52.9 50.5 50.0 52.5 51.9 54.7 56.7 59.3 63.5 69.8 74.4 76.8 81.5 84.6 80.1 83.4 92.9 97 ,7 91.3 87.9 94.0 101.3 110.2 110.6 107,9 105.1 97.2 106.4 114.2 117.0 119.7 125.2 130.6 0.9 11.1 2.4 -5.9 2 .8 6.8 -=3.9 7.1 3.4 4.8 3.2 ?.6 6.0 3.9 5,7 2.8 -4.1 4.7 11,4 3,7 -8,1 0.1 7.2 6.9 9.1 0.2 -1,5 -4,2 -6.0 10,6 6.5 2.5 2.0 4.6 4,6 (OCTOBER 1989) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. May June July Aug. Sept. 19S4. 1955. 195?! 1958. W9. I960, 1961, 19&s! 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967. 1968, 1969. H?0, 1971, 1972, 1973. 1974, 1975, 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986, 1987. 1988. SO, 2 45.4 52.4 §8.2 61,6 54.8 63,4 64.5 62.2 64.9 68.2 71.1 76,2 82.2 82.4 87.6 93.2 89.3 85.4 87.6 97.7 102.5 88.0 86,9 92,5 98.8 108.3 101.2 104,9 91.9 94.0 105,5 110,8 112.1 113.4 Nov. Dec. IQ II Q 45.5 50.8 57.6 61.5 54.8 65.3 63.8 61.3 64.3 67.3 70,6 74.8 81.2 82.7 86.0 92.1 91.3 87.1 86.5 94.9 101.9 88.0 87.2 90.7 96,3 106.1 97.4 105,3 97,1 91,6 105,1 109,7 112.2 111,8 115.0 45.4 SI.9 58.0 62.2 54.4 65.2 64.3 61.1 64.5 68.0 70.3 75.5 82.3 82.2 86.2 92.2 90.9 86.5 86.3 95.7 102.3 87.9 86.7 91.2 97,8 107,2 98.4 104.9 95.2 92.7 105,0 109.9 111.9 112.1 116,4 45.6 52.0 57.7 62.6 55.2 64.2 64.6 61.6 64.8 68.2 70,5 76,0 82.3 82.5 86.7 92.5 89.5 86,4 86.1 97.1 103.5 88.0 86.4 91.3 98,3 107,3 101,2 104.3 93.0 93,6 105,0 110.2 110.9 111.8 116.8 49.6 45.4 52.8 58.0 60.4 55.0 64.0 64.1 62.3 65.0 68.4 71.7 76.8 82.4 82,9 88.0 93,7 88.8 85.4 88.6 97.6 101.2 87,9 87.2 92.8 99.0 109.5 100.5 103.5 91.5 95.2 105.9 111.7 111.2 113.9 47.3 46.0 55.5 58.8 56.6 57.1 65.8 62.3 63.5 65.3 69.0 73.2 79.0 82.6 84.5 90.0 92.9 86.6 86.4 91.3 99.4 94.2 86.7 88.3 93.4 101.5 111.9 1D1.6 101.6 90.4 99.5 107.0 112.0 110.8 114.6 195?.' 19S8. 1959. I960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1966! 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970, 1971, 1972. 1973, 1974. 1975. 1976, 1977. 1978, 1979, 1980. 1981, 1982. 1983, 1984. 1985. 1986, 1987. 1988. = 11.2 "5.1 9,6 10.9 -17,6 = 8.4 -14.0 -1.8 12,3 1,9 48.8 45,6 53.4 58.2 59.7 35.2 64.7 63.6 62.5 64.9 68,7 47,8 45.4 54.6 58.5 58.5 55.6 65.0 63.0 63.0 65.1 69.0 47.4 45.9 55.8 58.9 56.2 57.0 66.0 62.3 63,4 65.3 68.7 46.7 46.7 56.1 59.0 55.0 58.6 66.4 61.6 64.0 65.6 69.2 46,5 47. C 57,7 59. C 54.2 59.6 66.4 61.C 64. 66. 68. 45,8 49.2 57.2 60,7 53.4 61.5 65.8 61.0 64,2 66,7 69.6 45.6 49.6 57.8 61.8 54.5 64.4 64.1 61.3 64.2 67,0 70.0 76.9 82.4 82.8 87.9 93.6 88.9 85.0 88,7 97.8 101,0 87.9 87,2 92.7 99.4 108,8 100.7 103,5 91.7 95.3 105,7 111.5 110.9 113.9 77,2 82.7 83.5 68.4 94.2 88.2 85,7 89.5 97.4 100,0 87.8 87.5 93.3 98.8 111.4 99.6 102.1 91.0 96.4 106.4 112.9 110.7 114.3 78.1 82,7 84.1 89,2 93.3 87.2 85,9 90.8 98.6 96,9 87.1 87.8 92.7 101.1 113.6 99,4 101.7 90.9 97.9 106.4 111.8 110.7 114.6 79.1 82.4 84.5 90.0 92.7 86.8 86.3 91.1 99.5 94.6 86,9 88.1 93.4 101,1 112.3 102,2 101.4 90.1 99.6 107.2 112.2 110.8 114.5 79.7 82.3 84.9 90.9 92.6 85.9 86.9 92.0 100.1 91.0 86.2 89.0 94.2 102.4 109.7 103.3 101.7 90.1 100.9 107.3 111.9 111.0 114.8 80. 82. 84. 91. 92, 86. 86. 93. 100. 89. 86. 89. 94. 102. 104. 103, 101, 90.4 101. £ 107.5 112. C 110, 1 114,5 80.9 82.4 85.9 91.2 92.3 87,7 86 .6 92,9 100.7 88.8 86.3 89.9 95.3 103.7 101,1 103.9 99.7 91.4 103.2 107.9 111.7 110,7 115.1 81.1 82.7 86.0 91.7 91.7 87.9 86.4 94.4 102,1 88.1 86.7 90.3 96.0 105.2 98.7 IDS.7 98.6 91.4 104,3 108.6 111.0 111.7 115.2 -11.3 -2.6 4.7 -9.8 -27,1 6.8 9.9 -3.7 1.9 3.8 -19. 7 8.2 19,9 10,9 -5.8 2.2 16.1 -12.3 3,9 -22.0 -5.1 30.6 6.4 -21.6 9.1 5.7 -10,8 10,0 -9.6 14.0 29.8 8.5 -38.2 34.8 20.1 -12,5 7.9 -16.4 23.0 6.6 2.1 -22.8 39.4 7.5 -12.7 12.0 -5.1 10,2 13.3 24.1 27 .7 73.8 -27.0 6.1 0.0 -=2,6 33.2 -4.1 -5.7 6.8 18.1 -5.5 0.0 1.9 -2,6 29.3 8.7 14,5 -8.4 -1.8 9.8 -3.8 3.8 5.4 2.3 -6.0 8.0 19.1 -16.9 5,7 -14.1 0.2 11,4 4.0 -16.8 0,2 4.0 -16.0 10.6 22.3 5.7 -27.5 27.8 11.1 5,7 6.0 10.0 10.8 10.1 -5.0 11.8 3,5 8.2 3.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 -7.0 2.8 4.5 7,2 -17.0 -1.4 2.0 5.1 8.1 7.6 -5.6 3.1 6.5 13.6 0.6 6.9 11. 8 -6.5 -10.0 10.6 4.8 -1,4 -6,7 19.0 15,0 1.4 -4.1 1.3 16.9 1.4 -12.8 -0,9 5.2 11.8 11.6 -31.2 -7.0 7.1 1.1 40.0 -6,7 -24.5 12.3 0.0 3.3 2.3 16.8 -6.0 -7.6 -8.2 12.7 5.5 16.1 -3.7 17.0 -1.5 -3,8 20,0 3,5 11,3 8.4 -12.1 2.4 6.0 7.9 11.5 -34.1 10.® -11,6 6.J 14,2 5.0 -0.1 9.4 1.1 1.8 2.7 1.5 1.6 3.0 4.5 1.4 -7.5 10.2 -1.4 15.3 4.0 16.4 -2.7 -2.5 -7.5 2.8 -2.7 21.2 -5.1 -10.4 -13.6 1.4 -13.7 0.0 -9.1 5.7 -1.4 7.1 16.6 -24,5 13.7 3.6 0.0 4.8 -41.5 2.3 -6.9 4.1 11.0 -35.8 4.7 -15.4 14.1 18.8 -2S.O 22,9 -12.5 0.0 10.8 -14.7 -4,4 -16,8 2.7 1,1 -3.2 2.2 3.2 4.6 8,1 12.9 13.2 13,0 -4.S -21.1 15.4 -1.1 2.2 -2. -3. -1.1 6.5 11.4 1.0 1.1 -2.1 3.3 15.6 -3.2 4.2 5.1 4,8 4.5 10.6 7.0 8.0 10.4 14.9 O.O 9,0 11.4 -10.9 12.2 16,5 -4.3 5.9 11.3 -7.4 -3,2 9.5 6.0 5.8 12.7 -1.3 -13.0 23.0 7.7 = 11.0 0.0 7.2 17.0 -5.5 16.2 1.2 -16,2 -1.4 4,2 10.3 11.4 -4,8 -11.3 -1.4 4.2 2.8 18.9 15.8 -31.5 -9.2 4.2 5.7 4.0 11.5 -25,0 -2.7 4.2 8.7 12,5 7.5 -37.2 -9.2 13.0 7.5 5.7 -7,0 32,8 -12.3 -15.1 -8.8 14.8 8.2 16,2 -2.1 4.3 31.8 26.4 -2.4 -4.6 = 1.3 0.0 -12.9 39.6 -3.5 -10.1 0.0 -11,1 0.0 3.2 9.4 4.4 1.1 -1.0 2 . ,1 6.5 -5.1 -8.0 9 3 0 0 , GlIANQE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 7 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS ( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T ) 1954. 1955. 1956, 1957, 1958. 19S9. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1HS, 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979, 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988, -S.4 -0.9 5.5 -2.1 -13.4 5.2 -7.7 0,0 8.1 3,8 2 .4 9.4 7.6 0.S 3.0 8.1 6.2 = 8.5 -6.8 11.6 9.1 =•5.0 0.0 2.3 6.7 6.7 6.1 9.7 -5.2 -13,9 11.7 2.7 6.0 -3.5 6.6 -14,2 0.0 11.2 3.S -17.3 e.e 3,2 = 6,0 6.0 0.6 3.0 10.0 6.5 2,0 4.9 8.1 7.6 -5.7 -3.2 16,8 -12.9 -0.9 9,1 2,1 16.2 -6.2 -8.2 = 8.3 12.5 5.4 10,2 -0.7 9.2 -16.1 10.0 21.8 5.6 -28,0 27.0 10.9 -12,0 -10.4 14.9 24.7 3.5 -26.3 32.0 8.9 -12.1 1 .2 4.4 6,3 8.9 8.8 7,5 9.2 11.9 O.O 8,5 9.9 -3,8 = 9.1 6,3 11.3 6.2 3.3 3,3 5.0 7.9 0.5 6.9 11.8 -6.6 -10.0 5.7 11.7 1.0 0.0 = 0.5 -5,5 -2.7 4.3 10.5 5.4 =1.7 4.2 1.4 8.1 3.6 -3.8 9.6 -2.3 10.9 -25.9 -3.6 -22.4 -2.7 9.4 6.9 -27 .3 17.5 -2,3 -2.2 16.9 4,2 0.7 0.4 -0,3 8.4 10.7 -34.3 6.8 -6.5 5.9 15.3 2.6 -1.8 -0.4 2.1 -17.8 0,0 17.9 2.1 -18,7 6.0 10.5 -9.0 5.2 1.3 4.8 9,9 10.4 2. 8. 7. 0. =9. 2. 15. = 17.3 5.4 26.6 8.6 -23.0 14,5 13.8 -11.9 -20. -23,0 = 4.5 -31.4 -7.1 3.1 7,J> 13.5 6.1 -7.9 -6.8 19.3 5.8 2.5 -0.4 2.1 3.9 15.4 -6.0 15.7 -1.6 0. 9. 21. -6. -11.7 -4.3 17.7 3.5 3.7 -4.9 4.3 20.0 3.4 -3.5 1.1 1.8 46.0 48.6 57.6 60. S §4.0 61.8 65.4 61.1 64,2 66.6 69.5 73,9 80.9 82.7 85.6 91.3 92.0 87,4 86.6 93.5 101.1 88,9 86.4 89.8 95.4 103.9 101.6 104.4 99,8 91,1 103.1 108.0 111.6 111,1 114.9 45.S SI.6 57.8 62.1 §4.8 &4.9 64.2 61.3 64.5 67.8 70.5 75.4 81.9 82.5 86,3 92.3 90.6 86.7 86.3 93.9 102.6 88.0 86.8 91.1 97.5 106.9 99.0 164.8 95.1 92.6 10S.© 109.9 111,7 111,9 116.1 -8.9 30.4 14,5 21.6 -1.6 47,3 -12.4 1.3 8.8 5.1 7.3 -0,3 3.5 3.6 -3.7 9.B A V E R A G E FOR 0.1 21.6 -0.5 §.6 5.8 -0.2 3.3 2.2 3.8 7.4 3.1 10,0 6.3 -0.8 3.3 3.6 -9.1 -6.6 12.0 5.8 -0.5 -1.2 4.5 10.2 g.4 12.8 -5,2 -20.8 10,1 2,8 6,1 0.1 0.4 5.9 47.1 47.9 55.9 S9.9 56.5 59.7 64.9 62.2 63.6 66.2 69.3 73.6 79.6 82.6 84.8 90.4 92.3 87.4 86,2 92.3 ieo.2 93,1 87.6 89.1 94,8 102,8 1 OS , 5 102,8 100,0 91,4 100,7 10?, 7 111.7 111.3 114,9 = 9,7 15.7 11.9 9,2 = 10,0 18,8 1.5 -4.4 5.3 5.3 3,6 7.9 8.5 0.4 5.2 6.8 = 2.9 = 6*.l 13.0 6.8 -14.2 -1.7 5.7 7.9 9.6 = 2.1 3.9 -10.4 1.0 J2.4 5.0 1.0 1.0 4.6 FRRI00 -12.8 32.0 -9.1 27.3 -8.3 36.5 -3.4 23.8 0.0 20,8 -0.9 13.2 -12.5 -0.3 -14.6 10.1 -10,1 31.9 12,8 -18.5 35.5 -1.2 -8.1 20.4 -3.6 45.9 -13.2 -1.9 16,1 4.5 44.1 -14,8 2,0 10.3 7.7 26.3 -8.8 0.7 5.3 5.2 -1.2 3.2 2.0 0.7 O.O -11.1 4.5 6.0 1.2 -16.5 3.7 2.0 -5.0 5.9 -25,8 24.5 11.2 -12.0 17.1 -5.9 41.8 -9 .7 -2.7 8.0 7.4 5.5 -1.0 7.8 7.1 -1.0 10.1 6.1 -1.0 7.7 5.0 -1.4 1.9 3.4 9.8 8.2 1.7 4.0 1.2 6.2 13.0 0.5 8.4 7.0 5.4 6.5 -0.5 4.9 -3.0 2.3 -1.4 8.0 4,5 -5.9 -5.4 -1.4 12.6 3.5 -9.3 -6.7 -1 .4 11.9 4.9 -8,5 -7,6 5.2 12.3 7.9 4.7 -7.8 -2.5 14.6 10.0 -5.3 -7.3 5.4 11.2 4.6 =2.8 5.4 -0.8 9.0 -12.2 2.3 = 8.2 4.2 -4.0 1.9 -0.5 -1.4 0.0 -1.4 -12.7 -1.6 -26.8 -5.1 -14.3 1.3 -1.3 -0,3 7.9 11,4 -34.5 9.6 -11.6 5.9 14,2 4.9 -3.2 2.5 1.4 6.5 13.5 -25.7 7.1 -14.9 5.4 13.6 8.4 0,7 3,7 1.8 10.9 14.2 -10.3 3.9 -16.9 5.8 7.2 7,6 0,7 5.2 4.6 9.9 8.2 10.5 -5.2 -20.9 10.0 2.7 6.0 -0.4 0.4 5.7 10.8 8.6 16.5 -1.3 -19.8 10,9 1.5 4.1 -0.4 5,8 11,2 5.6 6.1 14.5 -1.1 -8.4 -8.8 14.0 3.9 6.6 -3.0 6.7 5.5 9,8 -6.6 13.1 -3.9 -4.3 18.7 4.5 -0.1 0.4 1.2 7.6 11.9 -31.5 7.8 -11.0 5.7 14.4 5.3 -1.4 1.9 1.8 10. § 10.3 5.6 = 0.9 -19.2 8.9 3.8 5.9 0.© 3.8 7.2 NOTE: Series 930 contains revisions beginning with 1984. The percent changes are shown for the first time since before the overall revision of the composite Index early this year. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 100 Annual A V E R A G E FOB P E R I O D 12.1 4.6 -7.0 15.1 14.4 11.6 3,0 6,0 4.2 5,3 = 14*. = 2. 17, 2. 7. -12. 5. -16.6 73.1 -9.9 40.6 -16.3 45.7 -10.3 0.0 1.9 1.6 14.4 1.5 0.0 10.7 3,2 -1.4 -1,4 13,2 9.S 1K8 O.O 7.1 -13.3 5.3 5,9 6.7 13.8 18.6 -5.0 8.0 40.1 0.0 -16.1 22.5 0.0 -11.1 1.9 IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 49,7 45.3 52.6 57.7 60.0 55,1 63.9 64.3 62,3 65.1 68.4 9 3 0 6 , C H A N G E IS C O M P O S I T E I N D E X OP 7 L A G G I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 1-M0NTH SPANS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1954. 1955, III Q Oct. 9 3 0 . COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 7 LAGGING I N D I C A T O R S (1982-100) -1.4 19,3 3.1 5.4 4.3 4.? 2.9 3.2 7,0 3,3 8.5 6.1 -1.1 4.1 4.3 -7.9 -6.6 0.8 12.3 -9.6 15,2 11.6 7.4 18.'? 0.8 -4.2 5.1 3.3 3,7 7 ,5 8.4 0. 1 5.5 6.7 = 4.1 0.7 11.8 6.2 -13.8 = 1.4 5.8 7.3 9.5 = 4.5 4.7 -10.6 0.4 12.7 4.9 1.3 0.8 4.2 {OCTOBER 1989) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. 92.4 104.9 98.9 92.5 79,8 93.6 85.3 79.0 88.8 87.7 88.2 90.5 92.7 90.7 94.3 93.7 89.0 91.5 100.8 107.3 97.8 85.0 103.3 109.7 110.1 111.6 101.6 107.4 99,5 106.4 115.6 109.0 105.7 109.1 110.6 92.8 106.1 97.4 91.4 79.2 94.7 83.8 80.3 89.1 88.3 87.9 91.3 93.5 90.3 93.9 94.0 88.4 92.4 101.1 106.3 97.7 84.4 103.6 110.4 110.9 113.4 98.3 108.4 100.5 108.1 114.8 108.7 104.3 109.3 110.8 June Apr. May 94.4 107.9 96.0 89.9 79.7 95.7 83.4 81.6 88.9 88.6 88.6 90.9 92.6 90.4 93.6 93.3 89.0 93.8 101.9 104.6 96,0 87.5 105.3 110.7 114.3 109.0 94.5 108.5 100.3 109.0 113.4 109.0 106.6 109.4 110.7 94.5 108.1 93.4 89.0 83.1 94.2 81.7 83.5 88.3 88.8 89.5 90.6 91.9 90.8 93.7 92.7 89.2 94.7 101.7 104.7 95.7 89.6 105,9 111.0 113,9 110.2 93.7 105.1 100.3 111.2 111.8 108.2 105.5 109.4 111.1 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 97,8 102 .2 90.7 86.5 90.8 84.2 80.5 87.4 88.0 87.6 89.9 91.8 91.2 92.0 93 .4 92.8 68.9 93.3 103.2 103.4 93.8 97.6 107.4 110.8 113.3 106 .8 103.8 104,2 99.2 111.7 109.6 107.7 106. 1 111,1 112.1 98.7 102 ,4 90.7 84.0 89.7 80.3 82.2 87.1 87.9 87.8 90.0 92,0 91.1 91.7 93.6 92.5 89.3 94.0 104.4 102.1 92.2 99.0 107.3 111.2 113.0 104.9 107 ,0 101.7 99.6 113.9 108.8 107 .1 107 .6 110.2 112.0 99.6 100.8 91.8 83.4 90.0 78.7 82.4 88.3 88.0 88.0 88.4 92,4 91 .6 91.4 94.2 92.4 87.7 94.9 105.9 102.7 92.0 99.7 106.3 111.2 113.7 104.3 110,0 100.9 100.2 115.1 107.9 106.0 106.1 111.7 101.8 99.4 90.9 81.4 92.8 79.9 80.6 89.7 88.2 86.8 90.3 92.5 90.3 93.6 94.8 91.5 87.3 96.4 107.8 102.7 89.4 99.8 108.5 111.1 112.6 103.2 109.9 100.2 102.1 114.6 108.8 106.4 106.7 111.2 Dec. IQ ( 1982 = 100) 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964, ,. 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971, ,. 1972... 1973.., 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984. . , 1985... 1986... 1987... 1988... 91.4 104.0 99.2 90.9 79.4 93.2 86.3 79.1 87.9 87.2 87.5 91.0 93.0 91.2 94,1 93.6 89.6 91.3 100.0 107.8 98.6 85.1 102.0 109.7 109,3 111.8 102.5 107.2 97,3 106.5 116.1 108.7 106.4 106.4 110.4 96.4 106 .6 92,9 89.0 86.0 92.0 80.7 85.6 87.5 88.6 89.0 91,5 92.2 90.6 94,0 92.2 89.0 95,9 100.8 104.1 95,1 93.5 107.0 110.8 113,8 108.5 95.1 104.5 98.8 112.5 111.5 107 ,8 105,6 109.5 111.7 102.2 99.8 92.2 79.2 90.9 84.0 79.3 89.4 87,3 87.4 91.6 92.8 90,5 94.4 94.5 91.2 90.4 97.5 109.3 100.1 85.6 100.3 110.2 111.5 112.8 102.9 107.2 ' 99.5 104.3 115.0 109.4 106.8 108.8 112.8 92.2 105.0 98.5 91.6 79.5 93.8 85.1 79.5 88.6 87.7 87.9 90.9 93.1 90.7 94.1 93.8 89,0 91.7 100.6 107 , 1 98.0 84.8 103.0 109.9 110.1 112.3 100.8 107 ,7 99.1 107 ,0 115.5 108.8 105.5 Q 95.1 107.5 94.1 89.3 82.9 94.0 81.9 83.6 88.2 88.7 89.0 91.0 92.2 90,6 93.8 92.7 89.1 94.8 101.5 104.5 95.6 90.2 106.1 110.8 114.0 109.2 94.4 106.0 99.8 110.9 112.2 108.3 105.9 97.6 103.9 89.5 86,5 89.7 84.8 81.0 87.0 87.9 87.9 90,1 92.1 91.2 91.5 93.8 92.7 89.3 94.0 103.1 102.9 93.6 97.2 107.3 111.1 113.2 106.6 103.3 103.5 99.1 112.9 109.8 107.4 106,4 111.2 112.1 IV Q Annual 101 .2 100.0 91.6 81.3 91.2 80.9 80.8 89.1 87.8 87.4 90.1 92.6 90.8 93.1 94.5 91.7 88.5 96,3 107.7 101.8 89.0 99.9 108.3 111.3 113.0 103.5 109.0 100,2 102 ,2 114.9 108.7 106.4 107.2 111.9 112,5 96.5 104. 1 93.4 87.2 85.8 88.4 82.2 84 ,,8 88,1 87.9 89.3 91.6 91.8 91.5 94.0 92.7 89.0 94.2 103.2 104.1 94.1 93.0 106.2 110.8 112.6 107.9 101.9 104.4 100,0 111.4 111.6 107.7 106,2 110.0 111.6 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 68.2 81.8 72.7 45,5 36.4 18.2 50.0 72.7 63.6 81.8 68.2 63.6 54.5 72.7 36.4 90.9 59.1 36.4 77.3 100.0 81.8 66.6 81.8 27.3 28.8 48.5 78.8 24.3 69.7 57.6 77.3 62.1 62.1 65.1 53.0 54.5 51,5 12.1 74.2 78.8 90.9 62.1 28.8 36.4 78.8 48.5 48.5 86.4 27.3 62,1 65.1 59.1 25.8 68.2 51.5 36.3 36,4 57.6 63.6 13.6 72.7 54.5 54.5 63.6 13.6 81.8 36.4 90.9 90.9 27.3 63.6 9.1 81.8 54.5 77.3 45.5 18.2 77.3 36.4 90,9 68.2 59.1 31.8 18.2 63.6 63.6 63.6 45.5 36.4 54,5 54.5 90.9 59.1 31.8 72.7 40.9 30.3 63.6 45.5 39.4 56.1 50.0 30.3 45.5 81.8 63.6 57,6 24,3 90.9 60.6 60.6 56.1 37.9 33.3 54.6 45.5 92.4 3'4.9 60.6 45.5 40.9 22.7 40.9 31.8 68.2 53.0 54.5 90.9 90.9 90.9 36.4 0.0 100.0 27.3 36.4 90.9 81.6 68.2 90.9 90.9 9.1 90.9 90.9 0.0 63.6 81.8 72.7 31.8 0.0 81.8 63.6 72,7 54.5 31, 100. 9. 72. 81. 27 . 90. 81. 63. 45. 54.5 9.1 100.0 27,3 45.5 86.4 86.4 63.6 90.9 81.8 36.4 72.7 90.9 9.1 27 ,3 90.9 36.4 36 .4 90.9 45.5 40.9 90.9 86.4 90.9 63.6 72.7 36.4 72.7 90,9 0.0 100.0 72.7 36.4 0.0 100.0 54.5 45.5 54.5 81 .8 18.2 81.8 81 .8 36.4 81.8 72.7 36.4 77.3 77.3 63.6 59.1 0.0 81.8 27.3 45.5 63.6 90.9 50.0 72.7 72.7 18.2 59.1 54.5 90.9 31.8 18.2 45.5 81.8 27.3 54.5 54.5 77.3 72.7 72.7 68.2 63.6 36.4 86.4 9.1 72.7 86.4 72.7 90.9 72.7 63.6 90.9 68.2 90.9 63,6 90.9 54.5 86.4 68.2 63.6 36.4 36.4 36.4 81.8 36.4 72.7 72.7 81.8 63.6 50,0 63.6 54. 63. 36. 9. 72. 81.8 31.8 63 .6 72.7 9.1 81.8 45.5 72.7 50.0 63.6 63.6 40.9 63.6 31.8 18.2 77.3 68.2 27.3 54.5 54.5 45,5 90.9 45.5 63.6 72,7 59.1 45,5 45.5 45.5 54.5 9.1 68.2 54.5 40.9 90.9 54.5 54.5 86.4 18.2 72,7 63.6 72.7 18.2 72.7 50.0 31.8 54.5 50.0 54.5 40.9 90.9 36.4 45,5 81.8 18.2 50.0 59.1 45,5 13.6 86.4 59,1 22 .7 45.5 54.5 81.8 27.3 90,9 27.3 59.1 72.7 68.2 45.5 72.7 40.9 22.7 77.3 45.5 81.8 22.7 36.4 100.0 45.5 54.5 81,8 54.5 36.4 100.0 72.7 63.6 40.9 22.7 90.9 45.5 45.5 27.3 81.8 77,3 72 .7 54,5 18.2 54.5 18.2 31.8 59.1 18.2 13.6 54.5 63.6 45.5 81.8 63.6 68.2 72.7 54.5 45.5 9.1 81 .8 36.4 18.2 36.4 72.7 22.7 36.4 72.7 72.7 72.7 63.6 40.9 40.9 18.2 36.4 54.5 54.5 54.5 50.0 59.1 18.2 54.5 81.8 63.6 54.5 54.5 54.5 63.6 59.1 45.5 54.5 45.5 45.5 81.8 18.2 50.0 45.5 90.9 54.5 45.5 54.5 63.6 59.1 27.3 90.9 54.5 59.1 68.2 27,3 9,1 90,9 50.0 100.0 45.5 36.4 36.4 90.9 63.6 59.1 45.5 54.5 27.3 36.4 59.1 86.4 9.1 90.9 63,6 63.6 54.5 31,8 63.6 36,4 27,3 90,9 22.7 86.4 90.9 36.4 45.5 22.7 81.8 18.2 68.2 90.9 4.5 68.2 45.5 63.6 68.2 27,3 90.9 54.5 36.4 59.1 81.8 63.6 45.5 81.8 9.1 72.7 54.5 59.1 72.7 63.6 100.0 0.0 72.7 81 .8 45.5 63.6 59.1 63.6 54.5 36.4 81.8 81.8 72.7 31.8 68.2 54.5 45 .5 45 .5 - III AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 96.3 107.2 87.2 89.0 88.6 89.8 80.3 86.6 87.8 88.4 90.4 92.5 91.3 90.7 94.5 92.7 89.7 94.8 101.6 103.3 94.8 95.1 107.3 111.2 113.3 108.0 99.2 104.7 98.5 113.2 111.0 107.3 105.5 110.5 112.3 950. DIFFUSION I N D E X OF 11 LEADING INDICATOR C O M P O N E N T S 2 ( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 1-MONTH S P A N S ) 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961. ,, 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965.., 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1930... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984. . . 1985... 1986 . . . 1987,.. 1988... II Q 100.0 45.5 40.9 36.4 72.7 31.8 18.2 81.8 63.6 72.7 63.6 81.8 13.6 54.5 65.1 60.6 74,2 56.1 50.0 31.8 87.9 31.8 47.0 66.7 65.2 59.1 75.7 50.0 25.8 77.3 60,6 36.4 54.5 54.5 71,2 42.4 12.1 75.8 63.6 53.0 62.1 37,9 90.9 24.2 59.1 77.3 42.5 63.6 50.0 62.1 43.9 83.3 51.5 45.5 18.2 68.2 43,9 42.4 75.7 74.2 62.1 63.6 75.7 22,7 68.2 72.7 22.7 62.1 80,3 72.7 42.4 13.6 72.7 57.5 65.1 51.5 22,7 71.2 42.4 90.9 72.7 39,4 56.0 74.2 33.3 50.0 78.8 62.9 37.9 28.8 70.8 50,8 40.6 74.6 56.1 65.1 66.6 61.7 34.8 66.7 59,8 36.7 41.3 66.7 71,6 46.2 22.7 67,4 61.3 56,1 52.3 38.6 61.4 37.9 60.2 81.1 45.1 59.S 59.1 53.4 52.3 74.2 90.9 33.3 84.9 80.3 25.8 93.9 69.7 39.4 90.9 18.2 59.1 90.9 81.8 86.4 63.6 81.8 36.4 68.2 72.7 0.0 56.1 84.8 33.3 89.4 37.9 86,4 83.3 65.1 65.1 45.5 62.1 45.5 97.0 37,9 36.4 97.0 30.3 69.7 75.7 53,0 24,2 78.8 59.1 24.3 100.0 18.2 36.4 90.9 57.6 75.8 83.3 84,8 3.0 90.9 87.9 6.1 90.9 48.5 39.4 13.6 93.9 30.3 48.5 89.4 84.9 80.3 72,7 78.8 36.4 71.2 84.8 3.0 100.0 81.8 36.4 9.1 90.9 63.6 54.5 40.9 100.0 81.8 18.2 18.2 100.0 45.5 72.7 50.0 97.0 90.9 69.7 6.1 53,0 89.4 65.1 71.2 65.1 93.9 36.4 13.6 97.0 74.2 66.6 69.7 86.0 72.3 34,5 11.8 86.7 42,8 3B.6 91.7 52.6 78.0 78.8 70.4 32.2 71.6 73.5 19.7 37.9 84.5 87.5 43.2 8.0 72.7 18.2 100,0 81.8 36.4 77,3 81.8 36.4 50.0 72.7 27.3 90.9 77.3 45.5 63.6 100.0 36.4 36.4 12.1 36.4 50.0 100.0 66.7 56.1 72.7 72.7 54.6 27.3 30.3 54.5 100.0 27.3 72.7 56.0 74,2 78.8 ENTS3 ( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6-MOSTH S P A M S ) 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961 . 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966 . 1967, 1968. 1969. 1970, 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974, 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982 , 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. 72.7 72.7 77.3 90.9 77.3 86 .4 90.9 54.5 9.1 36.4 90.9 36.4 77.3 63.6 86.4 90.9 63.6 81.8 36.4 59.1 72.7 9.1 100.0 100.0 81.8 0.0 36.4 90.9 63.6 72.7 36,4 9.1 45.5 36.4 100.0 81.8 45.5 77,3 72.7 31.8 18.2 9.1 54.5 81.8 54.5 100.0 22.7 90.9 81.8 63.6 63.6 45 .5 68.2 36.4 18.2 100.0 90.9 63.6 0.0 50.0 90.9 63.6 68.2 18.2 9. 1 36.4 54.5 100.0 72.7 54.5 77.3 63.6 45.5 27.3 9.1 77.3 81.8 9.1 90.9 27.3 81.8 77.3 68.2 50.0 54.5 59.1 27.3 9.1 90.9 81.8 63.6 18.2 72.7 86.4 68.2 72.7 27.3 18.2 27.3 59.1 100.0 45.5 68.2 63.6 81 .8 86 .4 27.3 18.2 90.9 54.5 18.2 90.9 36.4 81.8 72.7 45.5 40.9 63.6 72.7 27 .'3 9,1 68.2 81.8 45.5 22.7 90.9 77.3 72.7 63.6 36.4 9.1 18.2 63.6 100.0 18.2 63.6 54.5 81.8 77.3 36.4 18.2 100.0 36.4 36.4 100.0 22.7 63.6 72.7 50.0 18.2 81.8 45.5 18.2 18.2 63.6 100,0 36.4 9.1 100.0 72.7 63.6 63.6 27.3 27.3 63.6 45.5 100.0 36.4 72.7 54.5 68.2 86.4 13.6 18.2 100,0 22.7 54,5 100.0 31.8 63.6 81.8 63.6 13.6 90.9 59.1 27.3 18.2 63.6 100.0 27.3 9.1 100.0 72.7 63.6 81.8 9.1 45.5 9.1 54.5 100.0 27.3 81.6 59.1 72.7 72 .7 18.2 18.2 100.0 18.2 36.4 100.0 18.2 81.8 72.7 81.8 0.0 90.9 81.8 18.2 27,3 63.6 95.5 36.4 9.1 90.9 59.1 63.6 63.6 27.3 86.4 0.0 54.5 90.9 36.4 81.8 59.1 72.7 59.1 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1984. This series contains revisions beginning with 1986. This series contains revisions beginning with 1985. 100.0 63.6 0.0 100.0 9.1 36.4 81.8 72.7 77.3 86.4 81.8 0.0 90.9 90.9 0.0 45.5 81.8 90.9 40.9 0.0 86.4 68.2. 59,1 63.6 18.2 100.0 9.1 54,5 81.8 27.3 81,8 72.7 63.6 63.6 75.7 86.4 36.4 3.0 86.4 63.6 65.1 60.6 25.8 95.5 6.1' 60.6 84.8 30,3 84.8 71.2 66.6 56.1 100.0 78.8 30.3 9.1 97.0 54.!i 5 7 . (J 48.5 21.2 75.7 21,2 90,9 80.3 39.4 74,2 84,8 36.4 54.6 as. 3 70.4 63.6 62.5 24.6 52.7 23.5 64.0 91.3 40.9 72.0 71.2 62.5 61.0 (OCTOBER 1989) 2 3 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 951. D I F F U S I O N I N D E X OP 4 R O U G H L Y COI C I D E N T I N D I C A T O R Sept. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q III 100. 100. 50. 12. 100. 100. 0.0 100.0 87.5 50.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 12.5 12.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 62.5 100.0 87.5 100.0 62,5 75.0 0.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 100.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100,0 0.0 62.5 100.0 25.0 100.0 37,5 75,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 100.0 37.5 75.0 0.0 37.5 100.0 87.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 25.0 100.0 66 .7 58,3 8.3 91.7 50.0 66.7 75.0 87.5 75.0 87.5 95.8 70.8 62.5 91.7 29.2 70.8 91.7 70. 45. 12. 91. 91. 79. 66. 62. 62. 45. 66.7 91.7 75.0 58.3 66.7 83.3 50.0 95,8 66.7 37,5 58.3 100.0 37.5 87.5 66.7 91.7 91.7 91.7 83.3 79.2 91.7 70,8 25.0 87.5 83.3 66.7 66,7 66.7 91.7 91.7 91.7 50.0 8.3 66.7 29.2 100,0 83.3 66.7 50.0 70.8 91.7 54.2 83.3 66.7 41.7 91.7 25.0 8.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 91.7 87.5 75.0 70.8 83.3 91.7 54.2 58,3 83.3 75.0 41.7 100.0 91.7 91.7 83.3 54.2 70.8 41.7 4.2 83.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 0.0 100,0 100.0 75,0 100,0 100.0 100.0 0.0 37.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 37.5 100.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75,0 100.0 0.0 50.0 100,0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100,0 100,0 50,0 75.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 0.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 62.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 8.3 100.0 70.8 58.3 0.0 100.0 83,3 66.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100,0 100.0 37.5 100.0 100.0 91,7 41.7 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 8.3 75.0 20.8 100.0 100.0 100,0 83.3 100.0 100.0 37.5 100.0 58.3 37,5 70,8 75.0 29.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 91.7 100.0 100.0 33.3 100.0 100.0 75.0 58.3 70.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 58.3 4.2 66.7 8.3 100.0 100.0 100,0 83.3 100.0 100.0 25.0 22.2 69.5 83.3 71.4 11,9 76,2 71.4 30.9 76.2 66.6 61.9 66.6 81.0 50.0 66.7 83.3 42.9 Oct. Q IV Q Annual COMPONENTS' I P K H U E N T K1S I KG O V E R 1- MO N T H B f A N S ) 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. 1972, 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976, 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986, 1987. 1988. 25.0 100,0 62.5 25.0 0.0 75.0 100.0 §0.0 25. 0 6 2 .S 75.0 62.5 87.5 100.0 12. S 75.0 0.0 100,0 100.0 62.5 50.0 25.0 100.0 75.0 50.0 25. 0 100.0 62.5 0,0 75.0 100.0 25.0 75.0 2S.O 62.5 50.0 100,0 50.0 100,0 0,0 100.0 25.0 50,0 100.0 100.0 87,5 100.0 100.0 37.5 75.0 100.0 37,5 25.0 75.0 100,0 25,0 0.0 100.0 100.0 87,5 75.0 50,0 50.0 87.5 25.0 87.5 100.0 50.0 100.0 87.5 0.0 100.0 87.5 50.0 25.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 62.5 100.0 100.0 75,0 100.0 100.0 50.0 87.5 100.0 50.0 62.5 12,5 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 37.5 75.0 50.0 100.0 87.5 100.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 25.0 100. C 100. C 12. S O.C 100. C 62.5 62.S 100. C 100, C 100. C 100. C 75, e 87.5 75. C 75. C 25. C 100. C loo, e 50. e 25. t 75. C 100. t 100. ( 100. ( O.I O.C 75. C 2 5 . () 100. ( 75.( 75. ( 100. ( 50, ( 75.0 50.0 100.0 25.0 25.0 75.0 100.0 37.5 100.0 50.0 75,0 100.0 75,0 75.0 62.5 100,0 50.0 25.0 100,0 75.0 75.0 100.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 07.5 0.0 37.5 62.5 100.0 75.0 75.0 25,0 75,0 100.0 75.0 87.5 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 12.5 100.0 50.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 100.0 87.5 25.0 62.5 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 62.5 25.0 87.5 0.0 100,0 100.0 10.0 25.0 87.5 100.0 37.5 100.0 0.0 62.5 100.0 50.0 0.0 75.0 100,0 75.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 62.5 75.0 100.0 100,0 37.5 50.0 87.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 25.0 87.5 12.5 100.0 75.0 37.5 50.0 100.0 75.0 37.5 50.0 100.0 62.5 75.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 12,5 37.5 100.0 62.5 12.5 100.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 25.0 0.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6-MONTH im. 1976, 1977. 1978, 1979, 1980. 1981. 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985. 1986, 1987. 1988. 0,0 100.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100,0 100,0 100.0 100,0 100.0 75.0 100,0 100.0 so.o 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 0,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 25.0 75. 0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 62.5 75.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100.0 7S.O 100.0 100,0 50,0 100.0 100,0 100.0 2S.O 0,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 0.0 75.0 50,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 7S.O 100.0 100.0 25,0 100.0 50,0 50.0 0.0 100,0 50,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 75.0 100.0 100,0 12,5 100.0 100.0 75.0 50.0 0.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 87.5 0.0 75.0 12.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 952. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958, 1959. 1960, 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965, 1966. 1967 , 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975*. 1976, 1978, 1979. 1980, 1981. 1982, 1983,' 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. 25.0 50.0 75,0 71.4 21.4 50.0 35.7 so.Q 85. 7 57.1 42 .9 78.6 71.4 42.9 50.0 78.6 78,6 14.3 78,6 57,1 28.6 28.6 78.6 71.4 71,4 35.7 64.3 28,6 57. 1 64.3 64,3 78.6 85.7 25.0 41.7 75.0 28,6 42,9 64.3 64.3 28.6 64.3 42.9 57.1 57 ,1 71,4 57,1 64.3 71.4 57.1 50.0 28.6 85.7 50.0 35.' 7 42,9 64.3 71.4 64.3 71.4 42,9 28.6 50.0 92.9 35,7 64,3 35.7 71.4 37. S 100, C 2 5 . () 62.5 37.5 100. ( 50. ( 100. ( 100. ( 100. () 100. ( 100. C 100. C 75. C 100. t> 100. () 25. ( 100. ( 100. () 75. () 7 5 . C) 12.5 100. (} 100. (} 100. ( 100. () 0 . () 7 5 . C» 2 5 . () 100. ( 100. ( 100, () 7 5 . () 100. ( 100.0 25.0 100,0 50.0 25.0 75.0 75.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 75,0 50,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50,0 0.0 75.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100,0 100.0 102 50,0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 50.0 12.5 100.0 100,0 100.0 100,0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 75,0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 25,0 12,5 50,0 0.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75*0 70.8 70,8 87.5 83.3 91.7 91.7 83.3 4.2 83.3 75.0 20.8 100.0 75.0 75.6 75.0 100.0 83.3 79,2 91.7 54.2 37.5 91.7 100.0 7S.O 16.7 87.5 87,5 91.7 100.0 62.5 83.3 0.0 45.8 100.0 79.2 70.8 91.7 75.0 91.7 55.2 92.7 70,8 35.4 60,4 72.9 29,2 84.4 75.0 84.4 83.3 91.7 84,4 75.0 82,3 77.1 36, S 77.1 89.6 71.9 42.7 66,7 90.6 91.7 88.5 §8.3 56. 2 42.7 31.2 87,5 82.3 76.8 67.7 75.0 87.5 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD SPANS) 50,0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 12.5 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 loo.o 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 12.5 100.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 25.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 DIFFUSION I N D E X OF 7 LAGGING INDICATOR C O M P O N E N T S 3 ( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 1 - M O N T R 8 F A N S ) 16.7 41.7 83. 78. 7. 71. 64. 50. 71. 57. 64. 71, 92, 35. 78, 78. 42. 25.0 75,0 100.0 85.7 14.3 85,7 85 .7 21.4 78.6 71,4 35.7 71.4 71.4 50.0 42.9 85.7 35.7 25.0 91.7 66.7 50.0 14.3 71.4 64.3 21.4 78.6 71.4 85.7 57.1 78.6 64.3 78,6 85.7 50.0 33.3 58.3 78,6 78.6 14.3 78.6 50,0 21.4 64.3 57.1 42.9 50.0 78.6 57.1 57 ,1 50,0 8.6 16.7 100,0 42,9 50.0 7.1 92.9 42.9 64.3 57.1 92.9 78.6 64.3 57.1 14.3 64,3 42.9 57.1 25.0 83,3 57,1 78.6 42.9 85.7 42.9 71.4 50,0 64.3 64.3 64.3 57,1 64,3 57,1 64.3 7.1 41.7 100.0 35.7 50.0 35.7 85.7 28. 57. 42. 57. 78. 64,3 50.0 50.0 57.1 64.3 42.9 58.3 83,3 71.4 78.6 35.7 28.6 78.6 50.0 64.3 78.6 42.9 64.3 78.6 28.6 57,1 64.3 21.4 58.3 58.3 42.9 57,1 78.6 28,6 35.7 85.7 50.0 64.3 50.0 71.4 57,1 57.1 64,3 57.1 7.1 50.0 75.0 54,8 33.3 64.3 64.3 33.3 71.4 47,6 52.4 61.9 64.3 SO.O 64.3 69.0 59.5 64.3 71.4 28.6 28.6 42.9 64.3 85.7 57.1 57.1 42.9 28.6 42. 100.0 78.6 64.3 50.0 71.4 2.9 4.3 35.7 42.9 35.7 85.7 42.9 57.1 50.0 57.1 57.1 64.3 35.7 78.6 0.0 50.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 57.1 50,0 92,3 57.1 71.4 85.7 50.0 57.1 100.0 71.4 71.4 50,0 71.4 42.9 50.0 64.3 85.7 71.4 0.0 50.0 14.3 57.1 78.6 71,4 57.1 0,0 64,3 28.6 57.1 64.3 78.6 85.7 28.6 85,7 50.0 64.3 71.4 50.0 57.1 14.3 71,4 28.6 28.6 85 . 7 92.9 64.3 50.0 57,1 57,1 35.7 42 . 9 71.4 50.0 50.0 57.1 57 !l 57.1 42.9 35.7 35.7 57.1 42^9 7K4 92.9 57.1 35.7 35.7 71.4 57.1 85.7 50.0 35.7 71.4 57.1 42.9 64.3 78.6 78.6 85.7 64.3 78.6 50.0 50.0 28.6 57.1 85.7 78.6 64.3 78.6 28.6 28.6 50.0 42!g 28.*6 2K4 64.3 57.1 78.6 42.9 42.9 85.7 42.9 14,3 57,1 42.9 78.6 57.1 57.1 50.0 42.9 85.7 57.1 50.0 42.9 42.9 83.3 100.0 100.0 12.5 100.0 37.5 8,3 1QO.O 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100,0 95.8 100.0 100,0 83,3 83.3 25.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 91.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 16.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 100.0 100.0 50.0 54,2 100.0 100,0 58.3 0.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 100.0 75.0 100,0 0.0 54.2 100.0 83.3 87.5 91.7 100.0 100.0 57.3 97.9 82.3 21.1 6?.? 78.1 34.4 91.7 100.0 100.0 100. e 100.6 95.8 91.7 100,0 85.4 31.2 100,6 100.0 81.2 31.2 §1.1 99.0 97.9 100.0 76.0 49.0 41.7 20.8 100,0 9S.8 96.9 87. S 100.0 100,0 A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D 25.0 58.3 75.0 64.3 35.7 78.6 92,9 21.4 64.3 42.9 57.1 50.0 50,0 50.0 78.6 57.1 42.9 ' T h i s series c o n t a i n s revis ons b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1986. T h i i series eonta ins revisl ens beglnn ina w i t h 1985. This series contains revisions begTftrtfner w f t h 1984. 2 3 100.0 75.0 100.0 0.0 87.5 25.0 37.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 37.5 100,0 100.0 0.0 75,0 100.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 62.5 100.0 100.0 87.5 100.0 0.0 25,0 100.0 50.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 COMPONENTS2 951, 1934. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1939. 1960, 1961. 1962. 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969, 1976. 1971, 1972, 1973. 1974. 87.5 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 25.0 25.0 75.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 50.0 50.0 100.0 75.0 50,0 100.0 100.0 75.0 37.5 100.0 100.0 100,0 75.0 37.5 87.5 12.5 0.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 62.5 62.5 75.0 31.0 38.1 57 .2 78,6 64.3 66.6 40.5 57,2 78.6 59.5 0,0 52.4 71,4 69.0 71.4 54.7 80.9 25.0 80,5 59.5 69,1 21.4 85.7 45.3 52.4 57.1 71.4 61.9 59.5 64.3 45.2 59.5 52.4 30. 71.' 38. 64. 59. 28. 54. 69 . 78. 71. 9. 66. 40.5 71.4 52.4 69.1 52,4 66.7 35.7 73.8 47.6 35.7 47 .6 47.6 57. 88. 54.7 40.5 50.0 57.1 52.8 80.5 50.0 61,9 50.0 47.6 47,6 64.3 52.4 66.7 57.2 66.7 61.9 45.2 59.5 61.9 23,8 31.0 50.0 59,5 52.4 45.2 42.9 66 .7 71.4 57.1 38,1 61.9 19,1 66,7 59.5 69.1 45.3 57.1 66.7 31,2 70.1 67.0 64.3 29.2 68,5 57,2 45.2 64.3 63, 58, 63, 67. 47, 62. 66.7 39.3 41.1 45.2 10,2 §4.2 26,2 47,0 66 , 1 74,4 66,1 42.2 62.5 36.3 50.0 73.2 56.0 4?. 6 51,8 §9.5 (OCTOBER 1980) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. 952, 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957 . 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. May . June July Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ 0.0 50.0 100.0 78.6 0.0 85.7 78.6 21.4 78.6 50.0 42.9 78.6 100,0 57,1 85.7 100.0 8,3 58.3 100.0 64.3 0.0 85.7 78.6 21.4 92.9 64.3 35.7 50.0 85.7 57.1 71.4 100.0 0.0 91.7 100,0 85.7 0.0 100.0 71.4 21.4 85,7 85.7 50.0 78.6 85.7 57,1 100.0 78.6 0.0 83.3 83.3 85.7 0.0 100.0 71.4 21.4 64.3 92.9 50.0 78.6 85.7 42.9 85.7 78.6 . 8.3 100.0 75.0 71.4 14.3 100.0 57.1 21.4 64.3 85.7 57.1 64.3 8.3 91.7 75.0 71.4 28.6 100.0 57.1 28.6 50.0 92.9 64.3 64.3 8.3 91,7 57.1 57.1 28.6 100.0 35.7 50.0 57.1 78.6 64.3 85.7 25.0 100,0 71.4 57.1 28.6 85.7 42.9 64.3 64,3 85.7 78.6 71.4 83.3 71.4 57.1 71.4 57.1 42.9 71.4 50.0 64.3 64.3 71.4 100.0 64.3 42.9 71.4 57,1 35.7 64.3 35,7 64.3 64.3 85.7 44.5 100.0 78.6 14,3 80.9 64.3 23.8 83.4 54.8 47.6 69.1 57.1 78.6 92.9 42.9 57.1 71.4 42.9 71.4 57.1 42.9 85.7 78.6 57.1 57.1 78.6 57.1 78.6 57,1 28.6 28,6 100.0 100.0 28.6 42.9 57.1 14.3 42.9 14.3 71,4 35.7 71.4 42.9 71.4 85.7 0.0 28.6 78.6 57.1 0.0 57.1 71.4 57.1 0.0 64.3 92.9 71.4 0.0 71.4 100.0 57.1 7 1,4 71.4 57.1 14.3 57.1 85.7 57.1 42.9 71.4 50.0 28.6 28.6 78.6 42.9 42.9 100.0 57.1 28.6 42.9 78.6 14.3 64.3 71.4 57.1 14.3 57.1 85.7 0.0 71.4 85.7 42.9 14.3 57.1 85.7 78.6 71.4 78.6 14.3 100.0 57.1 64.3 28.6 85.7 28.6 71.4 28.6 78,6 28. 57, 28. 85.7 28.6 85.7 28.6 71.4 0.0 85,7 28.6 85.7 0.0 71.4 14.3 92.9 57.1 71.4 57.1 78.6 100.0 42.9 85.7 57.1 85.7 85.7 50.0 35.7 57.1 85.7 92.9 64.3 42.9 42.9 42.9 85. 57. 42.9 64.3 57.1 100.0 50.0 28.6 71.4 57.1 92.9 57.1 28.6 57.1 35.7 71.4 57.1 28.6 64.3 78.6 57,1 14.3 57.1 7.1 85.7 85.7 71.4 42.9 71,4 71.4 57.1 28.6 71.4 7.1 85.7 71.4 78.6 28.6 92.9 85.7 D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N — 24 ( P E R C E N T RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 35.4 89.6 58.3 45.8 18.8 83.3 66.7 70.8 16.7 58.3 85.4 77.1 72.9 66.7 54.2 66.7 33.3 62.5 87.5 50.0 25.0 18.8 68.8 62.5 45.8 31.2 54.2 66.7 25.0 83.3 91.7 41.7 68.8 81.2 43.8 79.2 8.3 85.4 47.9 54.2 77.1 81.2 72.9 70.8 60.4 8.3 77.1 56.2 52,1 39.6 54.2 93.8 47.9 50.0 31.2 77.1 45.8 66.7 72.9 70.8 43.8 70.8 79.2 43.8 56.2 83.3 39.6 56.2 41.7 83.3 85.4 22.9 27 .1 91.7 41.7 77.1 64.6 77.1 89.6 58.3 62.5 60.4 52.1 37.5 41.7 91.7 79.2 83.3 18.8 35.4 68.8 75.0 37.5 66 .7 54.2 66.7 85.4 72.9 75.0 37.5 83.3 62,5 41.7 58.3 64.6 83.3 25.0 62.5 95.8 54.2 22,9 91.7 41.7 ' 58.3 52.1 77.1 58.3 54.2 54.2 68.8 41.7 70.8 56.2 45.8 58.3 50.0 83.3 64,6 35.4 70.8 56.2 60.4 77.1 70.8 68.8 45.8 41 .7 58.3 58.3 58.3 79.2 54.2 29.2 85.4 81.2 54.2 64.6 50.0 54.2 68. & 62.5 75.0 54.2 66.7 47.9 16,7 37.5 66.7 83.3 68.8 56.2 45.8 16,7 66.7 60.4 66.7 56.2 45.8 52..1 58.3 89 .6 87.5 37.5 8.3 58.3 25.0 79.2 66.7 54.2 64.6 70,8 50.0 89.6 62.5 62.5 64.6 20.8 70.8 41,7 77.1 45.8 72.9 79.2 47.9 70.8 41.7 72.9 79.2 31.2 52.1 64.6 54.2 60.4 70.8 50.0 79.2 70.8 60.4 25.0 95.8 79.2 58.3 8.3 100.0 79.2 47,9 79.2 91.7 95.8 83.3 91.7 50.0 87.5 79.2 27,1 62.5 100.0 79.2 25.0 8.3 87.5 91.7 87.5 54.2 41 ,7 87.5 12.5 83.3 95.8 56.2 75.0 . 91.7 83.3 45.8 100.0 62.5 . 56.2 16.7 95.8 87.5 77 . 1 75.0 95.8 100.0 89.6 95.8 41.7 79.2 79,2 29.2 75.0 91.7 70.8 29.2 16.7 79.2 91.7 91.7 54.2 20.8 66.7 16.7 91.7 95.8 62.5 41.7 89 .6 75.0 IV Q Annual 52.4 52.4 80.9 54.7 23.8 42.9 81.0 36,1 94.4 69.0 52.4 57.1 66.6 40.5 66.7 50.0 71.4 69.1 76.2 47.6 52.4 73.8 71.4 21.4 14.3 73.8 73.8 42.9 19.1 57.1 83.3 16.7 77.8 83.1 69,0 23. g 85.7 57.31 36,3 67,9 73.2 56.0 71.4 76.8 51,2 76 ,,2 81,0 32.8 30.4 58.9 83.9 63.7 15.5 50,6 79,2 71.4 4.8 71.4 16.7 71.4 83.3 61.9 33.4 64.3 61.9 61.9 28.6 64.3 11.9 85.7 66.6 85.7 38.1 92.9 95,2 76,2 32.2 67.2 21,4 52.4 S3.9 63,7 43.5 68.4 73.2 52.4 76.2 92.9 94.5 69.0 66.6 23.8 100.0 50.0 33.3 57.1 85.7 61.9 71.4 76.2 47 .6 69.0 73.8 28.6 85.7 64.3 28.6 28.6 57.1 78.6 23.8 38.1 95.2 95.2 19.1 38,1 64.3 31.0 71.4 85.7 61.9 0.0 64.3 88.1 71.4 28.6 71.4 14.3 85.7 71.4 92.9 28.6 100.0 100.0 57.1 28.6 50.0 14.3 85.7 57.1 85.7 57.1 85.7 100.0 88. 1 66.6 61.9 28.6 19.1 92,9 50.0 64.3 57.1 83.3 83.3 28.6 71.4 28.6 33.4 92.9 57.1 38.1 59.5 52,4 83.3 66,7 68.8 20.8 58.3 95.8 18.8 56.2 66.7 31.2 52.8 86.2 50.0 58.3 19.4 81.9 53.5 63.9 55.6 70.1 61.8 83.3 43,1 40.3 63.9 73.6 34.0 78.5 53.5 67.4 55.5 54.9 60.4 44.4 83.3 47.2 31.9 69,4 63.9 66.0 86.8 75.7 59.7 11.1 72.9 63.9 31.3 75.7 57.0 52.8 83.3 50.0 56.2 58.3 52.1 68.8 83.3 70.8 22.9 8.3 75.0 75.0 68.8 66.7 45.8 62.5 20,8 72,9 70.8 39.6 62,5 68.7 41.7 52.8 77.1 65.3 42.4 21,6 63.9 70.1 61.1 54.9 53.5 55.6 69.4 65.3 50.7 63.2 56.3 41 .7 73.6 62.5 66.7 54.8 57.6 63.2 75.0 76.4 50.0 19.4 63.2 65.3 65.3 61.8 54.9 56.2 45.8 65.3 77.1 63.9 43.6 65.3 66.7 59.0 63.9 45.1 68.1 42.4 80.6 54.2 66.0 66.7 52.8 43.8 78.5 76.4 50,0 15.3 75.7 67.4 70.2 67.4 45.1 66.0 22,2 70.8 75.7 54.2 46.5 52.1 59.0 75.7 61.1 58.3 54.2 63.9 66.0 87.5 51.4 59.7 45.8 ' 61.1 66.7 59.0 47.9 58,3 72.2 73.6 72,2 66.0 92.4 50.0 41.7 75,0 74,3 27.1 83.3 91.7 62,5 13.9 98.6 49.3 13.9 96,5 82.0 77,8 3.5 95,8 77.1 29.9 75.7 81.2 88.2 93.1 43.7 86.1 77.8 27.8 47.2 94.4 82.0 33.3 4.2 87,5 81.9 69.4 70,8 56,9 88. 9 12,5 63.2 93.1 38.2 75.0 82,6 81,9 77.1 INDUSTRIES AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 62.5 68.8 54.2 25.0 81.2 91.7 64.6 10.4 95.8 68.8 45,8 2.1 56.2 25.0 56,2 77.1 66.7 62.5 58.3 70.8 52.1 52,1 52.1 43.8 83.3 79.2 45.8 41.7 62.5 66,7 54.2 70.8 47.9 45.8 95.8 25.0 60.4 47.9 29.2 75.0 79.2 66.7 68.8 39.6 58,3 68.8 56.2 54.2 20.8 35.4 81 ,2 58.3 70.8 66.7 66.7 56.2 87.5 70.8 58.3 35.4 54.2 83.3 77.1 50.0 75.0 64.6 66.7 66.7 29.2 60.4 50.0 70,8 70.8 47.9 50.0 79.2 52.1 95.8 66 .7 58.3 79.2 33.3 56.2 75.0 43.8 62.5 75,0 14.6 37.5 91.7 43.8 58.3 79.2 64.6 75.0 68.8 58.3 43.8 79.2 81.2 66.7 33.3 79.2 72.9 75.0 68.8 56.2 54.2 16.7 31.2 60.4 52.1 37.5 79.2 47.9 66.7 72.9 47.9 18.8 72.9 77.1 60.4 4.2 72.9 54.2 66.7 66.7 33.3 81.2 29.2 54.2 58.3 50.0 79.2 70,8 58.3 70.8 83.3 62.5 60.4 50.0 56.3 75.0 75.0 79.2 75.0 58.3 41.7 58.3 75,0 66.7 66.7 64.2 75.3 53.3 38.5 59.9 66.7 37.7 71.9 57.5 64.6 71.0 72.0 63.9 54.5 61,8 58. 5 43.2 67,5 73,3 61.5 39,1 55.0 65.3 68.6 67.2 48.8 51.7 45.8 41.7 73.3 59.0 57.6 54.7 62.7 66.0 INDUSTRIES AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 58.3 100.0 45.8 64.6 93.8 39.6 70.8 95.8 50.0 62.5 87,5 60.4 83.3 100;0 50.0 79.2 87.5 58.3 87.5 87.5 79.2 91.7 91.7 70.8 97,9 79.2 83.3 100.0 75.0 79.2 33.3 91.7 50.0 91.7 58.3 100. 0' 100.0 79.2 81.2 35,4 70.8 83.3 20.8 75.0 91.7 70,8 45.8 33.3 87,5 95.8 87.5 54.2 16,7 58.3 35.4 95.8 87.5 70.8 58.3 75.0 70.8 50.0 83.3 25.0 91.7 81.2 87.5 05.8 87.5 75.0 29.2 83.3 72.9 22.9 60.4 79.2 87.5 50,0 41.7 79.2 87.5 95.8 56.2 20.8 75.0 41 ,7 83.3 70.8 75.0 47.9 75.0 91.7 83.3 79.2 35.4 100.0 68.8 95.8 91,7 87.5 75.0 70.8 75.0 75.0 29.2 62.5 87.5 72.9 50.0 62.5 70.8 91 .7 100.0 66.7 25.0 75.0 20,8 95,8 70,8 75.0 50.0 87.5 87.5 91.7 60.4 20,8 91.7 75.0 89.6 95.8 79.2 66 .7 83.3 70.8 54.2 41.7 75.0 87.5 81,2 50.0 75.0 77 . 1 83.3 87.5 43.8 20.8 47.9 16 .7 100.0 64.6 66.7 58.3 83.3 79.2 95.8 45.8 20.8 100.0 54.2 87.5 83.3 91.7 70.8 68.8 79 .2 75.0 35.4 70.8 75.0 79.2 50,0 75.0 85.4 91.7 75.0 62.5 45.8 41 .7 29.2 95.8 54.2 66.7 47.9 91.7 79.2 100.0 39.6 12.5 100.0 68.8 79.2 79.2 95.8 66.7 87.5 75.0 52.1 43.8 70,8 87.5 77.1 8.3 95.8 77.1 83.3 85 .4 47.9 75.0 27.1 37,5 95.8 54.2 68.8 75.0 91.7 83.3 100.0 62.5 8.3 95.8 75.0 68.8 95.8 87,5 62.5 83.3 79.2 41.7 50.0 83, 85, 54. 0, 91. 75. 79. 70. 45. 87, 16. 27. 89. 45.8 70.8 79.2 95.8 91.7 95.8 70.8 16.7 100.0 83.3 25.0 91.7 77.1 47.9 43.0 98.6 62.5 56.2 19.4 95.8 72.2 75.0 83,3 85 .4 91.7 77.1 85.4 87.5 91.7 75.0 75.0 91,7 95.8 70.8 95.8 98.6 84.0 75.0 91.0 94.4 84.7 83.3 70.8 29,2 47.9 95.8 79.2 39.6 4.2 87.5 75.0 75.0 70.8 62.5 95.8 12.5 56.2 95.8 29.2 79.2 72.9 83,3 91 .7 87,5 79.2 29.2 52.1 95.8 79.2 31 .2 8.3 91.7 87.5 83.3 25.0 41.7 91.7 87.5 29.2 0.0 83.3 42 ,4 79.2 80.6 25.7 70.8 94.5 73.6 33,3 19.4 61.1 76,4 67 .4 31,3 66.0 84.7 80.5 50.0 59.7 66.0 78.5 86.1 91.7 66.7 79.9 77.8 56.3 43.1 75.0 82.6 70.2 19.4 87.5 58.3 66.7 58.3 87.5 8,3 66.7 91.7 33.3 83.3 87.5 79.2 70.8 75.0 75.0 50.0 83.3 16.7 66.7 91.7 52.1 62,5 87,5 83.3 68.8 93,1 88.9 54,2 26.4 70.8 21.5 90.3 93.0 63.2 58.3 85.4 76 .4 87.5 94.4 55.6 22.2 66.0 26.4 93.0 68.7 72.2 52.1 81.9 86.1 84 . 7 77.1 52.1 69.4 28.5 31.3 93,7 51.4 68.8 67.4 93.1 84.7 NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1985. 111 Q 77.8 94.4 78.6 0.0 95.2 73.8 21.4 81,0 81 ,0 45.2 69,1 85.7 52.4 85.7 85.7 47.9 50.0 68.8 58,3 • II Q A V E RAGE FOR P E R I O D 16.7 41.7 100.0 78.6 14.3 85.7 64,3 21.4 92.9 64.3 35.7 64.3 100.0 42.9 78.6 100.0 9 6 6 . D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N — 24 ( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6 - M O N T H S P A N S ) 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958, 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972, 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. Sept. 41.7 41.7 100.0 78.6 28.6 71,4 50.0 28.6 78.6 50.0 64.3 64.3 92.9 57.1 64.3 78.6 57.1 28.6 42.9 85.7 100.0 28.6 42.9 57.1 85.7 85.7 71.4 42.9 42.9 966. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969, 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977 , 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983, 1984. 1985. 1986. 1987. 1988. Apr. DIFFUSION INDEX OF 7 LAGGING I N D I C A T O R COMPONENTS' ( P E R C E N T RISING OVER 6-MONTH S P A N S ) 72.2 91,2 63.2 28,8 72,2 74,1 35.8 89.2 71.9 86.6 91.8 88.4 68.0 67.4 77.8 Sg.O 36.8 76.6 S6.0 64.4 26.7 63.5 00,4 83.7 82,8 54,7 51.7 44.4 35.6 92.5 62.8 69. S 65.1 85. 6 81.1 (OCTOBER 1989) 103 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year | Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. May (PERCENT RISING 1934., 1955.. 1956,, 195?,, 1958.. 1939,, I960,. 1961.. 1962.. 1963.. 1964., 1965,, 1966,. 1967.. 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973,. 1974.. 1973., 1976., 1977.. 1978.. 1979,. 1980.. 1981.. 1982., 1983., 1984,. 1983.. 1986.. 198?., 1988.. 34,6 65,4 30.0 30.8 38, § 50.0 46.2 73.1 34.6 61. § §0,0 50.0 50.0 34,6 38.5 73.1 46,2 76.9 46.2 34,6 46,2 42.3 65.4 38.5 69.2 53.8 37,7 26.9 69.2 53.8 50.0 30.0 57,? 34.6 76,9 84.6 73.1 38, § 6§,4 69.2 69.2 61,3 30.0 30.8 42.3 61. § 38. § 23,1 61.5 84,6 42.3 46. a 61.5 73.1 92.3 73.1 69.2 61.5 73.1 34.6 76.9 73.1 30,8 34,6 76.9 61. § 38.5 38,5 42.3 34.6 967. 1954... 46.2 1935. ., §3.8 1957,".! 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... 1962.., 1963.,. 1964... 1963... 1966... 1967... 46 '.2 26,9 69.2 53.8 61.5 30.8 63.4 76,9 73,1 53,8 7.7 1968. . . 38.5 1969,,, 1970,,. 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975.., 76,9 69.2 46.2 84.6 100.0 69.2 19,2 1 9 7 6 , ., 1977 . , , 65.4 §7.7 1978... 66,7 ?3. 1 42 ".3 50.0 46.2 38.5 73,1 42.3 80.8 46.2 46.2 46.2 73.1 57,7 26,9 57.7 53.8 50.0 73.1 84.6 69,2 §3.8 30.8 73.1 80,8 46,2 76.9 61.3 63.4 38,5 57.7 6§.4 3?.? 34.6 30.8 65.4 DIFFUSION 53.8 69.2 46 '.2 34.6 69,2 53,8 61.5 34.6 69.2 76.9 8Q.8 38.3 19.2 §3 .8 76.9 61.3 46.2 84,6 92,3 76.9 13.4 65.4 50.0 66,7 1980 !.". 5 8,' 3 §0*,0 1981,,, 1982... 38.5 15.4 1983, ,. 80,8 1984,,, 1983.,, 1986... 1987... 1988... 73,1 23,1 46.2 88. § 69.2 38,5 30. ft 61.3 65 .4 23.1 §0,0 96.2 61. § June July Aug. Sept, §3 '.8 46.2 26 .9 37.7 42.3 23.1 57.7 80.8 61.3 69.2 73,1 26,9 §0.0 73.1 30,8 76.9 46.2 38.5 92.3 42,3 §3.8 73.1 42.3 76.9 80.8 69,2 73.1 26.9 34,6 53.8 38.5 61.5 34,6 69.2 §0.0 84,6 6§.4 38.5 88.5 50*,0 42 ! 3 §?.? 53.8 46.2 26,9 37,7 23.1 34,6 26 .9 §0.0 46,2 38. § 3?, 7 73,1 34.6 30.8 65.4 34,6 61.5 42.3 15.4 26,9 34,6 46,2 50.0 38.5 61.5 88. S 65.4 S?!? 42.3 30,8 61.5 26.9 46.2 34.6 57.7 42.3 69.2 30.8 46.2 §3.8 73.1 46.2 46.2 69,2 15.4 80.8 53.8 0,0 38.5 23.1 46,2 42,3 23.1 65.4 §? .7 63.4 46 ,2 53.8 30.8 34.6 61.3 38.5 34,6 26.9 30. 8 73.1 30.8 46.2 61.5 69.2 38.5 57.7 73.1 34.6 65.4 46.2 53.8 61.3 61.3 57.7 34.6 38.5 50.0 73.1 42.3 46.2 76,9 46,2 42.3 73.1 50.0 19,2 30.8 65.4 69.2 34.6 61.5 69,2 61.5 34,6 53.8 34.6 50.0 69.2 30.8 76.9 61.5 §3.8 73,1 46.2 46.2 50,0 76.9 46.2 34.6 §3.8 50.0 46.2 65.4 §3,8 7.7 42.3 65.4 5-0,0 30,8 §3,8 57.7 34.6 50.0 37.7 34.6 §0.0 76.9 33.8 57,? 42,3 61. § 57.7 46.2 46.2 6§.4 61.5 38.5 23.1 42.3 57.7 73, 1 88.3 61. § 26.9 53.8 76.9 46.2 34.6 §0,0 61.5 42.3 26.9 34,6 50.0 §0.0 88.5 6 2 .§ 65.4 38.5 46.2 69.2 30,8 42.3 73.1 53.8 42.3 46.2 26.9 76,9 65.4 69,2 42.3 57.7 57.7 76.9 63.4 42.3 53.8 53.8 73.1 23.1 §3.8 61.5 37.5 80.8 61. § §3.8 26.9 30.8 76.9 §7.7 23.1 61.5 46,2 69.2 61.5 69.2 57.7 76.9 61.5 73,1 53.8 76,9, 61.5 84.6 30.8 65.4 §3.8 30.8 §3.8 15.4 61.5 69.2 42.3 38. § 11.5 23.1 SO.O 57.7 38,5 69.2 11.5 65.4 76.9 50.6 26.9 19,2 23,1 69.2 76.9 46,2 69.2 19.2 33.8 80.8 11.5 11.5 15.4 84.6 61.5 34.6 50.0 30.8 51.8 t.4.6 57 ,7 11.5 34.6 15.4 76.9 61. § 23.1 53.8 38.5 53.8 76.9 57.7 11.5 30.8 76,9 30.8 46,2 92.3 92,3 61,3 50.0 69.2 50.0 69,2 26.9 61,5 84.6 80,8 46.2 42.3 73.1 46.2 80,8 34.6 69.2 80.8 80.8 46.2 57.7 65.4 46.2 84.6 23.1 53.8 69.2 80.8 38.5 34.6 57.7 45.8 88.5 46.2 46.2 19.2 96.2 30.8 38.5 50.0 96.2 61.5 46.2 53.8 19.2 88.5 30.8 46.2 30,0 80,8 61.5 46.2 61.5 26.9 88.5 23.1 38,5 30.0 88.5 5?.? 50*,0 46 .2 26.9 80.8 34.6 23.1 42,3 ?3,1 61,5 IQ 36.0 85.3 74.1 71,4 76.4 70.0 78.2 80.5 80.9 89,3 104.5 101.6 102.4 119.3 142.3 1968, . 130.1 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1973,, 1976.. 1977.. 1978., 1979!! 146.0 131.3 111.8 104,1 163.1 99.6 100.9 99,9 98,8 98,4 103!9 1980. . 112.1 1981.. 1982., 117. S 124.3 1983. . 13? ,8 1984.. 1985.. 1986.. 1987.., 1988... 148.8 163.6 178.9 187.3 190,6 84,7 74.1 70.7 76.8 70.S 77.5 86.9 80.3 91.1 103.7 100.7 103.3 121,1 144.1 151.8 145.0 129.2 109.1 106.0 103.6 99.7 98.3 100.5 99.3 93,4 104!5 113.6 116.9 128,5 139.2 150,6 165.1 178.0 188.9 191.0 NOTE: Th«se serltjs c o n t d i n n 104 83.6 73.7 69.3 76.7 71.9 77.8 81.3 80.2 92,3 103.1 100.4 10S.4 122 .2 145.6 148,9 145.3 126.3 108.2 105.9 162.7 99.4 97.9 101 .2 98,8 103!fi 113.6 117.1 129.3 140.4 151.1 167.2 178.6 188,6 169.9 82,1 73.6 69.7 76.9 73.1 78.3 80.8 80.4 93.1 80.9 73.6 69.9 73,7 73.9 7S.9 81.7 80.4 93.8 79.7 72.9 69.9 76,2 76.0 79.1 79.7 80.4 94.7 100.2 106.7 124.7 147. 1 143.9 144.3 123.5 108.3 106.1 102.2 99.2 98,3 100.2 101.6 98.5 109.0 127 ,0 148. 1 147.9 144.1 120.8 109.6 105.3 101.4 100.1 98.7 100.2 102.1 97,9 110.3 128,9 147.8 148.7 142.0 118.7 107.9 103.0 101. 9 99.3 99.4 99.3 102.6 102!6 113 '.3 116.1 131,6 141.6 135.0 168.2 179,8 189.2 187.9 103!l 115.6 116.6 133,5 142.7 154,9 169.6 180.2 189.3 183.5 103!0 H6l2 117.1 133.9 143.6 155.8 171.6 180.7 188.6 184.6 79.4 72.8 69.9 75.3 ?6 , 1 79.5 81.6 80,9 96,5 Q IV Q Annual 69.2 84.6 53.8 23.1 76.9 61. § 51.3 61,5 48.7 37.2 41,1 62.8 §9.6 30.8 46.2 57.? 51.3 66.6 64. 1 35.9 67.9 52.5 &4.1 39.0 41.0 62.8 54,5 62.8 30,6 40,1 S7.4 51 '.3 64.1 50.0 53.8 51.3 §0.0 §9.0 38.4 48.7 59.0 51.3 56.4 78.2 82.0 66.7 46.2 66.7 74.4 50.0 71,8 61.5 42.3 38. § 65.4 §3.1 39.8 44.9 52.6 47.4 5o!e 56.4 41.0 52.6 41.0 62.8 35.9 42.3 34.6 66.7 42.3 53,9 60,2 70.5 4?.4 44.9 66.7 28.2 64.1 55.1 9.0 44.9 29.5 52.6 47.4 46.2 60.2 69.2 62.8 42*. 3 61.5 42,3 41.0 66.7 47.4 20.5 39.? 53.9 64,1 32.1 §3.8 62.8 §5.1 41,0 56.4 47.4 44.9 70.5 43.6 62,8 55,1 §8.9 62.8 42.3 43. & 35.1 70.3 42.3 32*. 1 43.6 §6.4 66 .? 69.2 §5.1 42.3 57.? 69.2 §9.0 39 .7 52.5 64.1 62.8 24.4 48.7 §9.0 48.4 70.5 67.0 55.1 37.2 41.1 62.8 33.9 41.0 66,? SO.O 62.8 43!$ §6,4 4? ,4 S3.§ 57.0 53.8 39,4 44,5 §1.6 62.2 41.4 54. 2 66 .3 67.6 44,9 49.0 59.9 49,0 63,8 59.4 4?. I 44.9 42.0 60.9 45.2 42.6 §6.? 60.6 §3.8 61. § 69.2 60.2 73.1 50.0 25.7 61.5 62.8 38.5 64.1 15.4 60.2 75.6 47.4 25.6 14,1 61.5 82.0 §5,1 18.0 79.§ 61.3 29.5 57.7 34.6 §5.1 74.3 75.6 23.1 31.3 64.1 85.9 28,2 42.3 65.4 38.9 89.8 63.9 42.3 42.3 21.8 80.8 18.6 41.1 62.8 84,6 59.0 © A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D 61.5 84.6 61.5 73.1 57 . 7 23.1 73.1 46.2 46.2 §3.8 50.0 69.2 76.9 57.7 3.8 38.5 19.2 69.2 46.2 53.8 38.5 6§.4 80.8 80.8 50.0 3.8 42,3 §3.8 65.4 50.0 46.2 35.9 66.6 §1.3 58,9 32.1 67.9 71.8 71.8 42.3 14.1 69.2 46.2 84.6 92.3 76.9 19.2 65.4 69.2 75.0 92.3 58.3 65.4 15.4 65.4 73.1 34.6 §3.8 76,9 69.2 61,5 76.9 55.1 46.2 87.2 94.9 69.2 17,9 70,5 52.6 63,9 93.6 54.0 41.1 24.4 66.7 &0.3 23.1 51.3 88.5 64.1 79.5 30,8 39.0 85.9 84.6 §1.3 50.0 69.2 47.5 78.2 85 .? 4 7 . ,§ 48.7 21,8 88. 32, 35. 47. 83. 61. 84. § 74.0 70.5 76,6 70.8 77 .8 80.9 80.5 91.0 103.8 100.9 103.8 120.9 144.1 150.3 145.5 128.9 109.7 105.3 103.1 99.6 99.0 100. § 99,0 98.1 104.0 113.1 117,2 127 ,4 139.1 150.2 165.3 178.5 188.3 190.5 80.9 73.4 69.8 76.3 74.3 78.8 80.7 80.4 93.9 103. 98. 108. 126. 14?. 14?. 143.5 121,0 108.6 105.5 101.8 99.5 98.8 99.9 102.1 101.3 102.9 115.7 116,6 133.0 142.6 1§5.2 169.8 180.2 189.0 186.0 69.2 34.6 57.7 61, § 50.0 3.8 38.5 23 !l 76,9 53.8 38.5 53.8 34.6 53.8 69.2 57,7 3.8 38.5 19.2 53.8 61.5 88.5 23. 1 50,0 6 1 .5 29.2 92.3 26.9 46,2 61.5 88,5 23,1 42,3 76.9 41.7 88.5 69.2 23.1 53.8 76.9 92.3 23.1 42.3 76.9 45.8 88. § 42.3 42.3 15.4 80.8 15.4 46.2 65,4 88.5 53.8 38.5 23.1 23.1 73.1 15.4 38.5 73.1 76,9 65,4 61.5 23.1 50.0 80,8 15.4 53.8 65.4 53,8 5?.? 76.9 38.5 84.6 76.9 84.6 19.2 65.4 73.1 62.5 88.5 §8.3 65.4 23.1 57.7 80.8 19.2 53,8 80.8 69.2 69.2 76.2 72.1 73.3 72.1 77.2 79.4 81.0 84.9 98,4 75.7 72.0 74.4 69.7 77.8 79.2 81.3 87.0 99.4 ?4.6 72.2 76.1 69,2 77.9 79.9 80.1 88.5 99.8 100.6 115.7 138.6 150.7 146.6 134.8 112.2 104.5 103.1 101.8 101.5 96.3 100.1 95.0 102.5 110.5 117.3 125,0 137.4 145.2 160.4 177.1 185.5 188.7 182.2 101.3 116.8 140,1 150.7 145.8 133.2 110.9 102.9 103.8 101.2 101. § 99.3 99.5 18.1 103.6 111.2 117.9 126.9 136.9 145.5 162.9 178.3 186.2 188.9 180.5 3fl,8 77 .7 72.2 70.7 75.4 76.8 79.0 82 ,0 81.3 97.9 76.9 72.5 71.4 73.9 7?,3 79.5 81.8 83. 98. 97.7 112,1 130.6 148,6 148.7 141.5 116 .7 107.1 104,0 102.1 100.4 97.7 99.1 102.6 98,2 113.0 132.4 148.8 149.1 139.5 115.8 107.1 102.7 100.5 101,3 97.8 100.2 102.3 103,8 114.4 118.6 134.3 144.9 156.1 171,9 182.4 188. 7 184.9 103.0 115.6 120. § 134.2 145.0 159.2 173.5 183.7 189.1 184.9 98. 113. 134. 149. 148. 138. 114.6 106.0 103.2 100.8 101.5 99,4 100.6 103.1 103.3 106.3 116.3 121.8 135.2 146 .3 161.2 174.8 184.6 189.8 184.3 j revisions but are reprinted for the GO venienee of the user. III 53.8 69.2 50.0 §0.0 30.8 53.8 26.9 61.5 34.6 61.5 §0.0 61. § 42.3 61.5 S3. 8 65.4 42,3 53.8 76.9 73.1 23.1 57.7 65.4 57,7 42.3 76.9 46,2 46.2 46.2 42.3 19.2 57.7 65.4 §0.6 76.9 §57. I N D E X OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N , D E F E N S E A N D SPACE E Q U I P M E N T ( I N D E X : 1977-100) 1954.. 1955.. 1956,. 1937.. 1938,, 1939.. I960.. 1961,. 1962,. 1963.. 1964.. 196S., 1966,, 196?,. II Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 46,2 38.5 23.1 42.3 61.5 69)2 38.3 50.0 69,2 84.6 SO.O 34.6 34.6 80,8 30,0 76,9 69.2 65,4 61.5 57.7 65.4 34.6 50.0 69.2 11,5 69.2 30.8 63.4 50.0 76.9 53.8 61.5 57.7 Dec. O V E R 1-MOWTH S P A N S ) 73.1 65.4 42.3 46,2 38,5 I N D E X O F SPOT M A R K E T PR1CES--13 R A W I N D U S T R I A L M A T E R I A L S ( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 9 - M O N T H S P A N S ) 61.3 73.1 50.0 46.2 46,2 61.5 46.2 53,8 30,8 69,2 61.5 61.5 34.6 15,4 30,8 76.9 34.6 46.2 92.3 92.3 61. S 19.2 80.8 §0,0 58.3 Nov. Oct. 5§.l 8.9 34.6 61.5 75.6 21 '.8 73.1 48.? 46,2 48.7 50.0 67.9 75.6 55,1 3.8 39.8 89 .? 71,8 33.9 74.3 82.0 84,6 20.5 57, 7 73.1 61.1 89.8 61.1 64.1 20.5 5?.? 78.2 23.1 53.8 74,4 64.1 62.8 S9.3 74.0 S 6 .6 27,9 62.5 39.9 41.4 57.3 33.0 62.8 74,3 57.4 20,2 25.6 62 ,2 36.2 57 .'? 79,8 ft?. 5 42.3 42.0 69,6 50.0 80.4 76.1 52.0 38.2 31.4 78.6 33.3 38.3 39.0 80.1 61,8 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 99.5 114.7 136.2 150.5 145.0 137.3 113.0 105.4 102.4 101.8 101.8 98.4 100.7 95.9 1 02 . 5 109.3 116.7 123,7 136.4 146 .4 160.8 175.2 185 ,6 190.3 184.0 78.0 72,§ 70.7 74.9 76.? 79.3 81.8 81.8 97.5 102.3 98.2 112,8 132.4 148.9 148.9 139.9 115.7 106.7 103.3 101.1 101.1 98.3 100.0 102.7 102 . 6 105.0 115.4 120.3 134.6 14§.4 158.8 173.4 183.6 189.2 184.8 ?§.§ 72.1 74.6 70.3 77.6 79.5 80.8 86.8 99.2 102 ,5 100.5 115.? 138.3 130.6 145.8 13§.l 112.0 104.3 103.1 101.6 101.6 98.0 100.1 96.3 102 ,9 110.3 117.4 US,2 136.9 145.7 161.4 176.9 185.8 189.3 182 .2 79.8 ?3.1 71.4 74.6 74. 9 78,9 81.1 82.4 95.4 102 ,9 99.6 110.3 129.6 14?. 8 148,1 141,0 119.4 107.3 104.3 101.9 100.4 98.5 100.1 100.0 101.2 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143,1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185 .8 (OCTOBER 1989) G. Supplemental Data and Analyses MI Foreign currency per U.S. dollar Year and month Japan (Yen) West Germany France (0. mark) (Franc) III III 1 1 1 ) 1 1 127.69 129.17 127.11 124.90 124.79 127.47 133.02 133.77 134.32 128.68 123.20 123.61 1.6537 1.6965. 1.6770 1.6710 1.6935 1.7579 1.8466 1.8880 1.8668 1.8165 1.7491 1.7563 5.5808 5.7323 5.6893 5.6704 5.7348 5.9310 6.2241 6.3919 6.3515 6.1975 5.9746 5.9994 127.36 127.74 130.55 132.04 137.86 143.98 140.42 r!41.49 145.07 2142.30 1.8356 1.8505 1.8686 1.8697 1.9461 1.9789 1.8901 rl.9268 1.9502 21.8792 6.2538 6.3004 6.3321 6.3223 6.5815 6.7135 6.4105 r6.5085 6.5855 2 6.3759 Foreign currency per U.S. dollar Year and month Italy (Lira) Canada (Dollar) Jap an (y en; \ (Pound) X / \r 0.5553 0.5688 0.5456 0.5324 0.5349 0.5628 0.5865 0.5894 0.5938 0.5751 0.5529 0.5477 We:itGer many (d.rnark) /^ *^*v \. *\ 'S tJ 1216.88 1249.62 1240.67 1240.99 1258.81 1305.56 1367.26 1397.93 1393.15 1353.36 1300.22 1295.61 1.2855 1.2682 1,2492 1.2353 1.2373 1.2176 1.2075 1.2237 1.2267 1.2055 1.2186 1.1962 89.29 91.09 89.73 88.95 89.74 92.58 96.53 98.29 97.91 95.10 91.91 91.88 1345.12 1355.28 1372.50 1371.80 1415.83 1434.40 1367.39 r 1384. 24 1404.18 2 1378.27 . 1.1913 1.1891 1.1954 1.1888 1.1925 1.1986 1.1891 rl.1758 1.1828 21.1753 95.12 95.77 96.99 97.24 100.81 103.09 99.12 100.44 101.87 2 99.38 •j" "\ /\ ^ 260 240 200 V\J "^N ^ \ A / f ^ J J Ital V (lir< ^'v. AX ^f .-"I>^ / NX / / ^ / 120 2.8 2.4 2.0 ^\ A r / y 1.6 10 ? United Kingdom (po und) / f* J /\ \ *j A /V\^ 160 V > ^j 'S / -x E \A\ A^ 'V 9 8 7 /\ ^\> J^ J^, 6 EE \ \ \s s r v^ m \ \^\\ y\ ^ / m s~r "^*J /- vv^ V—' ^^ —^s. ^ ^ Exchange value of the U.S. dollar ^ (index: March 1973=100) _, v/ y\ s— fT — ^v ^^\ % /v f f^* ^v^> III III )| 1 5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 1.6 Canada (dollar) 1989 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. J F ranee (fra /" (March 1973=100) A > 0.5638 0.5703 0.5836 0.5880 0.6132 0.6439 0.6147 0.6271 0.6363 2 0.6311 Exchange value of the U.S. dollar 1 ^v V 1988 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. Ratio scale 320 ^^ 1989 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. II III III III III III III III Foregn currency per U.S. dollar— United Kingdom 1988 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 II III 1 1 S' 1.4 f~*** *— V-^ ^*v> — s. EE \ \ 1.2 1.0 180 140 \ \ V J\ S*EE 1 1 III III III ^ III III III 120 100 60 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 1 This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700). 2 Average for October 2 through 20. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 105 G. Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data (and Scries title unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . . 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment i nsu ranee State programs * ( thous . ) . . . . 8, M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. d o l . ) . , . 32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries dlf fits ion index (percent) 20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars {bil. dol ) 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . . 92. Change in m f r s . 1 unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods, smoothed 2 (bil. d o l . ) . 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed^ (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 3 (index: 1941-43-10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil dol ) 83. Index of consumer expectations 3 (index: 1st Q 1966S100) 910. Composite index of leading indicators'* (index; 1982^100) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (ann. rate* bil. d o l . ) 47 , Industrial production (index: 1977=100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.) 920. Composite index of roughly coincident'* indicators (index: 1982-100) LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment 1 (weeks) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to s a l e s in 1982 dollars (ratio) 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output, m f g , s smoothed 2 (ann. rate, percent). . 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . ) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent). . . . 120. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed2 (ann. rate, percent) 930. Composite index of lagging indicators'' (index: 1982^100) June 1989 41.0 July 1989 41.0 Aug. 1989 40.9 328 338 316 86.93 r82.90 r90.70 47.5 r48.00 46.9 rSO.Ol 44.9 r47.00 Sept. 1989 p41 .0 320 p 8 7 . 15 43.8 p45.8l 104.3 102. 2 105.9 105,2 2.20 r2.22 rl .66 pi. 32 -.23 -.47 -.48 .13 323.73 331 .93 346.61 347.33 2,399. 4 2,416.7 r2,431.3 82.0 85.5 80.3 June to July 1989 .00 July to Aug. 1989 -.07 Aug. to Sept. 1989 .07 -.08 . 19 -.03 -.25 ,48 -.21 -.03 . 10 -.06 .01 -.30 -.08 -.05 -. IS -.06 . 10 -=.02 -. 18 -.11 -.20 -.01 . 14 .24 .01 p2,442.8 .24 .20 .16 p88.6 .13 -. 19 .31 .00 .49 .21 r 144.0 r 144.0 r!44.7 p!45.0 108,607 1:108,767 r!08,855 p!09,064 . 12 .06 .20 2,912.8 r2,922.7 r2,932.4 p2,933.2 .18 . 17 .02 p!42.3 .00 .08 -.03 -.24 .81 NA -.15 .98 .00 -.47 .36 r!42.G 142.0 456,223 r451,795 r!32.8 r!32.6 142.4 P466,572 133.9 11. 1 12.0 11.3 1 .52 1.54 pi. 50 rl.O rl. 1 11.07 r390,239 15.87 10.98 r39l,545 ri5.76 rl.5 10,50 r 400 ,91 7 p!5. 79 4.8 4.9 4.8 r!20.S r!20.0 r!20.3 NA p!33.9 11.4 -.07 NA .26 -.52 NA pi .8 .02 .07 .07 10.50 p398,508 NA p4.4 pl!9.7 -.05 .08 -.34 .05 -.41 -.28 .00 .53 -.19 ,09 NA -.05 .25 -.27 -.50 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is computed by dividing the standardized change for the component by the number of components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the January 1989 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 97-102) for the standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised. series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. 2 This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. 3 Fhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source: stock prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. ^Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.142; for the coincident index, -0.186; for the lagging index, 0.030. 106 G. Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued CIBCR Composite Indexes of Leading Indicators Ratio scale 240 220 200 180 160 CIBCR long-leading index (1967 = 100) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 CIBCR short-leading index (1967= 80 --1 60 m'Mmi ill 111 mm in in 48 49 SO 51 52 S3 54 55 56 57 SB 59 60 81 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 76 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 69 CIBCR long-leading index (1967=100) CIBCR short-leading index (1967=100) Month January February. . . March April May ... June July August September. . October November. . . December. . . 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 171.8 174.9 173.2 175.8 179.0 181.6 182.3 184.5 186.2 183.2 185.8 187.9 188.8 188.3 186.6 192.4 193.3 193.7 195.2 195.5 197.4 197.2 199.4 204.6 203.2 205.0 204.8 205.5 204.1 205.1 207.5 206.7 205.0 205.1 206.1 206.0 206.3 210.5 210.8 212.8 213.9 214.3 216.0 217.3 217.1 215.6 218.0 219,7 219.5 218.5 215.3 219.5 220.3 r221.6 r222.4 r223.6 p225.4 172.2 171.3 172.2 171.7 173.0 173.6 173.9 175.1 176.1 177.1 176.0 178.6 179.8 179.7 180.2 181.5 181.9 182.6 182.5 184.2 185.6 186.1 187.3 190.3 r!89.7 191.4 191.8 191.7 194.3 196.8 196.6 197.8 197.2 r!96.5 195.1 194.0 193.4 194.6 195.0 196.1 r!96.0 r!98.9 197,8 r!98.4 198.3 198.6 199.0 201.3 201.9 201.9 202.5 203.7 202.2 202.6 r201.6 r203.6 P205.8 NOTE: These indexes are compiled by Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR). The components of each index are listed below, and the source is indicated for each component not shown in BCD. Long-leading index: Building permits for new private housing units (BCD 29), bond prices (Dow-Jones & Company), ratio of price to unit labor cost in manufacturing (CIBCR), and deflated M2 money supply (BCD 106). Short-1 eading index: Average weekly hours in manufacturing (BCD 1), average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (BCD 5), layoff rate under 5 weeks (CIBCR), deflated new orders for consumer goods and materials (BCD 8), vendor performance (BCD 32), change in business population (CIBCR), deflated contracts and orders for plant and equipment (BCD 20), inventory change (National Association of Purchasing Management), change in industrial materials prices (Journal of Commerce)» stock prices (BCD 19), and change in deflated total debt (CIBCR). Further information about these indexes and their non-BCD components may be obtained from the Center for International Business Cycle Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027. 107 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE Current issue Series <page numbers) number Charts Tables Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and _ Sources of Series." following this index) Agricultural products, exports ,. Anticipations and intentions Consumer expectations, index Consumer sentiment, index..,., Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01 , Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, 01. Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars.. Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl. , Prices, manufacturing, Dl .,....„. Prices, retail trade, Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl...... ,.„ Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl , Automobiles Imports ot automobiles and parts , Personal consumption expenditures B Balance of payments—See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Uans. Bank rates—See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves .,.,...... Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve.. Bonds- -See Interest rates. Borrowing--See Credit. Budget--See Government. Building- ^See Construction, Building permits, new private housing.... Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures—See Investment, capital. Business failures, current liabilities Business formation, index Business incorporations Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars..... Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Business saving ,„.„..,.. Employment ,.,......,..., economy..,. Earnings, real average hourly, private nontarm economy Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Index Sae notes at end sf index. 108 56 83 58 9?4 975 971 100 61 970 976 978 977 972 973 13 22 38 38 38 24 24 38 38 38 38 38 38 97 65 76 76 76 67 67 76 76 76 76 76 76 2/89 12/88 7/89 7/89 7/89 10/88 10/88 10/88 7/89 7/89 7/89 7/89 7/89 616 55 n 56 92 65 7/89 9/89 93 94 , 33 33 Series description C) 7/89 72 72 11/88 11/88 20 37 37 37 23" 23 37 37 37 37 37 56 39 35 35 29 13,25 76 24 67 67 9/89 1/89 24 12 14 12 13 72 65 65 7/89 1/88 7/89 34 21 21 73 73 71 82 4/89 4/89 4/89 11/88 32 32 32 26 33 23 23 15,35 35 32 46 20 20 64 64 1/89 1/89 14 14 24 24 37 48 66 66 75 5/88 5/88 5/88 5/89 22 22 22 51 1/86 9/89 9/89 5 26 26 ..... ..,.,.. 97 11 965 338 .... 914 35 34 29 29 60 70 70 442 90 441 37 51 17 51 18,51 89 62 89 62,89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 9 9 9 9 920 920e 951 940 9 10 39 36 11 23 60 "74" 60 66 10/89 10/89 10/89 10/89 5/88 5 5 21 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 4/89 4/89 4/89 32 32 32 345 280 49 45 87 82 11/88 11/88 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/89 46 11/88 46 8/88 5 7/89 7/89 53 53 Employment as percent of population , Labor force ...,., Unemployed..... , Coincident indicators Composite index ......„..„.„.„.,....... Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index , Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded.. Commercial and industrial loans Leans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector... , , Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income., , Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector,..., , ..,., Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm Rate of change... Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Index Rate of change, Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Eleven leaders, index Eleven leaders, rate of change Inventory investment and purchasing Money and financial flows..,.. , , Profitability. 604 101 72 112 295 Canada -See International comparisons, Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog...,,.,..,,,.. ,..,.,„.,... Newly approved „.......„., , Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index,. Capital investment—See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Historical data (issue date) 346 49 340 49 87 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 53 19 63 4/89 920 920e 940 10 39 11 60 10/89 10/89 10/89 930 930c 10 39 914 910 910c 915 917 916 10 39 11 11 11 10/89 10/89 •60 60 1/86 10/89 10/89 60 60 1/88 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales.... Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Housing starts Consumer expectations, index Consumer finished goods, producer pries index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Services Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index Debt-See Credit, Defense and space equipment, industrial production .... Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers1 Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP Deficit—See Government. Deflators—See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components.. New orders, manufacturing Plant and equipment expenditures Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Current issue Series (pagenumbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description 13,25 67 9/89 23 24 66 67 5/88 9/88 21 17 248 87 89 249 28 83 334 25 47 25 25 47 25 13 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 67 97 86 64 65 9/89 10/88 9/89 9/89 10/88 4/89 2/89 5/89 4/89 1/89 40 40 40 40 40 24 '$1 15 12 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 8/89 8/89 8/89 2/88 33 33 33 34 320 322 120 58 49 49 15 22 84,95 84 97 65 3/89 3/89 2/89 12/88 49 49 525 53 90 6/89 55 20 12,23 66 9/88 21 10 116 23 34 66 73 9/88 5/88 21 35 110 32 29 9 69 11/88 101 15,35 72 35 112 32 73 73 71 4/89 4/89 4/89 32 32 32 66 113 95 39 111 33 35 32 15,35 33 32 32 73 72 73 72 72 71 8/89 8/89 8/89 2/88 8/89 9/86 33 33 33 34 31 31 98 331 28 48 8/89 5/89 51 50 10/89 557 54 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 6/89 6/89 7/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 9/88 9/88 9/88 9/88 6/89 8/88 8/88 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 32 33 12,21 72 64 2/88 2/89 34 17 965 951 974 963 966 37 36 38 36 37 5/88 10/89 7/89 4/89 10/89 22 5 37 5 12 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 2/88 7/89 10/89 10/89 9/88 37 5 5 15 971 970 960 972 967 38 38 37 38 37 7/89 10/88 5/88 7/89 10/89 37° 23 37 37 25 973 976 978 977 968 961 '38 38 38 38 37 36 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 7/89 7/89 7/89 7/89 12/88 7/88 '37° 37 37 37 25 5 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Series . number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description C) E Earnings— See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl Employment, civilian Employment, defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, civilian Unemployment rate 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek, manufacturing, 01 Equipment— See Investment, capital. Expectations— See Anticipations and intentions. Exports— See International transactions. 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 43 44 45 1 39 17 17 38 14,17 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 15,18 18,51 18 18 18 12,16 961 36 89 91 91 61 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 62,89 62 62 62 61 77 74 3/89 6/89 6/89 9 56 56 8/89 8/89 8/89 7/89 8/89 4/89 3/89 6/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 4/89 2/88 8/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 8/89 8/89 5 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 8 8 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 7/88 5 F Federal funds rate Federal Government— See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment— See Investment, capital. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Foreign trade— See International transactions. France— See International comparisons. Free reserves Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures State and local receipts State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted price index Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP, constant dollars . . . GNP, constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars GNP, current dollars, differences GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply Ml Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment— See Investment, capital. H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours Average weekly hours, components Average weekly hours, Dl Average weekly overtime 119 34 72 6/88 35 94 213 917 33 40 11 72 , 80 60 11/88 10/88 1/88 35 38 5 311 48 84 8/88 49 93 33 72 11/88 35 14 49 20 63 9/89 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 311 68 48 30 84 70 8/88 9/89 49 28 50 50b 50c 200 200b 200c 107 49 310 217 19,40 9/89 9/89 9/89 31 20 48 40 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 80 10/88 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 46 60 16 16 61 61 3/89 3/89 9 9 1 12,16 5 36 16 61 77 74 61 8/89 961 21 7/88 8/89 5 5 39 40 11/88 8/88 8/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 8/88 9/89 8/88 • 53 53 53 53 53 53 48 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 67 67 67 83 10/88 24 24 40 40 310 48 84 8/88 38 345 280 49 45 87 82 11/88 11/88 46 46 4/89 9/89 9/89 1 Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports— See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income •Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production— See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Defense and space equipment Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components Total, Dl Total, rate of change Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Installment credit~See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest net Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks : Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France . Italy Japan , United Kingdom United States West Germany Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan . . OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany 64 30,47 70,83 9/89 46 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 88 73 82 11/88 11/88 46 33 26 287 225 224 47 40 40 83 80 80 11/88 10/88 10/88 26 11 11 227 40 80 10/88 11 340 49 87 8/88 5 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 8/88 9/89 9/89 5 57 57 47 47 46 11 11 51c 51 108 282 39 14,19 31 45 63 71 82 11/88 30 47 283 284 47 45 83 82 11/88 11/88 47 47 285 348 349 47 50 50 83 S8 88 11/88 7/89 7/89 47 53 53 53 13 335 19 23 48 63 65 85 4/89 7/89 5/89 11 21 51 76 75 557 73 74 47 24 22 54 20 20 14,20,58 1/89 1/89 12 12 13 12 12 12 966 47c 37 39 67 65 91 63 63 63,94 78 75 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 5 962 45 288 289 12,16 36 18 45 47 61 74 62 82 83 11/88 11/88 8 g 8 47 47 . 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 48 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 ,73 86 9/89 5/88 6/88 6/88 5/88 2/88 5/88 5/88 5/89 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 733 736 737 738 732 320 735 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 3/89 4/88 60 61 61 61 60 49 61 94 58 94 58 94 58 94 58 94 58 94 58 14,20,58 63,94 94 58 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 59 723 726 727 728 721 722 47 725 8/89 11/88 11/88 10/88 9/88 9/88 9/88 9/88 4/89 10/89 1/89 1/89 6/89 ii 10/89 12/87 iz 10/89 25 25 1/88 4/89 2/88 8/89 See notes at end of index. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) International eompa rise ns— Continued Stock prices Canada ,.,......,......, ,, France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States .0,.... West Germany International transactions Balance on goods and services........................ Balance on merchandise trade Exports, excluding military aid Experts, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military , ,. Exports of goods and services, constant dollars Experts of goods and services, current dollars Exports of goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, general , Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Net exports ot goods and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, current dollars Net exports of gaods and services, percent of GNP Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products manufacturers' Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade . . Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars..... Manufacturing and trade, Dl, , Manufacturing and trade, on hand and §n order, change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' Materials and supplies on hand and on order, Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales ..,.. Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change— See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars.. Fixed investment current dollars Nsnresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential percent of GNP . Total, constant dollars Tetal, current dollars ,.,.... , New orders, tiandefense capital goods, constant dollars............ New orders, nondefense capital goods, current dollars Plant and equipment Contracts and orders constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business, Dl Investment, foreign Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Italy—See International comparisons. Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 63 63 63 63 63 25 63 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 93 93 92 93 92 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 9/89 9/89 7/89 9/89 7/89 10/88 10/88 9/89 7/89 7/89 9/89 7/89 9/89 11/88 10/88 7/89 9/89 9/89 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 255 44 82 10/88 44 250 251 44 47 82 83 10/88 10/88 44 44 30 245 247 559 65 77 915 71 31 70 975 26,42 42 47 54 27 15,27 11 27 26 2? 38 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 9/89 10/88 10/88 9/88 12/88 8/89 1/88 9/89 9/89 9/89 7/89 40 40 40 17 17 17 17 17 17 37 36 26 68 9/89 17 78 27 68 12/88 17 38 26 68 12/88 17 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 5/88 5/88 5/88 1/86 5/88 22 22 22 '23" 66 66 75 60 66 69 24 67 9/88 17 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 10/88 10/88 9/89 10/88 40 40 40 40 88 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 9/89 9/89 9/89 10/88 10/88 10/88 40 40 40 40 40 40 27 23 66 9/88 15 24 23 66 9/88 15 20 10 100 61 970 12,23 23 24 24 38 66 66 67 67 76 9/88 9/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 21 21 '23 23 652 651 57 57 93 93 9/89 9/89 57 57 21 J Japan—See International comparisons. L Labor east per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, business sector Labor cost pec unit of output, manufacturing Index Percent change Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm businessLabor force—See Employment, Lagging indicators Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index ,., See notes at end ef index. 110 , 68 63 30 30 70 70 9/89 10/88 28 28 62 62 26 30 15 29 70 97 70 2/89 2/89 10/88 28 '28' 930 930c 952 10 39 36 60 10/89 10/89 10/89 "5" 74 5 Current issue Series . (page numbers) number Charts Tables Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Leading indicators Composite index fVH . ... rf ' . • ""' " " udoiimes of uubmt!y> la lures Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 5 """ " 910 910c 950 14 104 10 39 36 33 31 '?4 72 71 10/89 10/89 10/89 7/89 4/89 "5" 34 29 78 27 68 12/88 17 .. . 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 68 64 64 12/88 1/89 4/89 17 14 15 917 11 60 1/88 5 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 31 31 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 4/89 4/89 4/89 4/89 4/89 8/88 4/89 9/86 6/88 5/88 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 66 66 64 9/88 9/88 4/89 15 15 15 20 12,23 66 9/88 21 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 9/88 9/88 4/89 4/89 21 15 15 15 964 971 37 38 66 90 64 64 77 75 76 9/88 7/89 'is' 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 47 67 67 67 83 9/89 9/89 9/89 10/88 40 40 40 40 517 543 721 53 53 58 90 90 94 6/89 6/89 6/89 55 55 58 580 54 91 7/89 56 49 20 63 9/89 14 62 62 370 358 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 97 88 88 64 64 61 2/89 2/89 10/88 10/88 1/89 1/89 8/89 28 °52" 52 14 14 5 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 89 3/89 3/89 3/89 9 9 9 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 65 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 80 83 9/89 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 11/88 11/88 7/89 48 48 56 ...... 60 Loans— See Credit. M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories, change Materials capacity utilization rate . Materials new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices— See Price indexes. Merchandise trade— See International transactions. Military- -See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets change in total Money supply Ml constant dollars Money supply Ml percent changes Money supply M2 constant dollars Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields N National defense— See Defense. National Government— See Government. National income—See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense,. current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 0 Obligations incurred, Defense Department Obligations unpaid Defense Department QECD, European countries, industrial production Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays Defense Department Output— See also Gross national product and Industrial production. labor cost per unit of Index Percent change Per hour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity materials Overtime hours, manufacturing P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars . Total, percent of GNP Personal income— See Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports , . 37 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Current issue Series . (page numbers) number Charts Tables Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital. Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business, Dl Population, civilian employment as percent of Price indexes Consumer prices— See also International comparisons. All items Food Services Deflators Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities Capital equipment Crude materials Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Sensitive crude and intermediate materials Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices selling Manufacturing, Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade, Dl Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices— See Price indexes. Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI. , , . Production— See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant dollars Current dollars With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income ,. . . Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing, DS Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 9/88 9/88 21 21 10/88 10/88 10/88 '23' 20 10 100 61 970 90 12,23 23 24 24 38 17 66 66 67 67 76 62 320 322 120 49 49 15 84,95 84 97 3/89 3/89 2/89 49 49 311 310 26 48 48 29 84 84 70 8/88 8/88 10/88 49 38 28 330 333 331 334 335 332 98 48 48 48 48 48 48 28 85 86 85 86 85 86 69 5/89 5/89 5/89 5/89 5/89 5/89 8/89 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 10/89 1/88 25 25 98 99 28 13,28 69 69 8/89 2/89 51 25 19 968 26 13,28 37 29 69 75 70 12/88 12/88 10/88 25 25 28 976 978 977 525 109 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 7/89 7/89 7/89 6/89 2/88 37 37 37 55 35 88 25 67 9/89 40 3/89 23 9 370 358 916 50 50 11 88 88 60 10/88 10/88 1/88 52 52 5 18 16 80 79 28 28 29 29 69 69 69 69 9/89 9/89 9/89 9/89 26 26 26 26 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 11/88 11/88 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 81 282 29 45 70 82 9/89 11/88 26 47 283 47 83 11/88 47 967 23 284 37 28 45 79 75 69 82 10/89 25 25 47 285 93 89 47 33 25 83 72 67 Raw industrials, spot market prices Components :. Current issue Series . (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 249 47 83 10/88 40 59 54 22 22 65 65 8/89 8/89 20 20 213 40 80 10/88 38 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14.22 22 38 15,2/ 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 9/88 8/89 8/89 7/89 8/89 8/89 8/89 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 26 48 48 48 48 98 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 8/89 2/89 9/88 51 25 17 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 10/89 1/88 25 25 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 12/88 12/88 25 25 114 115 34 34 72 73 5/88 5/88 35 35 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 62 61 61 74 3/89 3/89 4/89 2/88 9 9 8 8 446 445 447 444 37 51 51 51 51 18,51 89 89 89 89 62,89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 9 9 9 9 43 44 45 18 18 18 62 62 62 3/89 3/89 8/89 9 9 8 561 92 96 25 54 13 21 21 91 97 64 64 9/88 2/89 9/88 9/88 'is' Velocity of money GNP to money supply Ml, ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio Vendor performance, slower deliveries 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 8/88 4/89 2/89 30 30 17 W Wages and salaries— See Compensation. West Germany— See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices— See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours Components Diffusion index 1 12,16 5 36 61 77 74 8/89 961 7/88 5 Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP Residential structures— See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars s Salaries— See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices— See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components .• Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government— See Government, Stock prices— See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Surplus— See Government. T Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields U 7/89 5/88 9/89 1/88 9/89 R Spot market index Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) 1/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 9/89 47 35 40 Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl Number unemployed Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over Total unemployed Unemployment rates Civilian 15 weeks and over Insured unemployment Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars, change Durable goods industries, current dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars, change United Kingdom— See International comparisons. 15 15 V NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 111 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are tor identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).--The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1 and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysts (23,65) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q). Source 1 (29,70) 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (29,70) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source 2 (26,68) Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 (29,70) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3 (17,62) I-A. Composite Indexes 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1 (28,69) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).— Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company (12,23,66) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).— Source 3 (16,61) 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 (29,70) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 3 (14,17,62) 910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106) (M).-Sourcel (10,39,60) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20,29) (M).-Source 1 (60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M) Source 1 (11,60) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).-Sourcel (11,60) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 930, Composite index of seven lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109,120) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (1160) I-B. Cyclical Indicators 1, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).™U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,16,61) 28. New private housing units started (M).—Source 2 (25,67) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q). Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sourcc 2 (21,64,77) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories (M).-Sourcesland2 (26,68) 7, Manufacturers* new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index (M).—National Association of Purchasing Management and Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 8, Manufacturers* new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (12,21,64) 9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 112 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).— Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board (32,71) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricuUural activities (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).~Source3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q)-Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1 (19,63) 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1 (19,63) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-Source 1 (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (22,65) 59. Sates of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1, 3, and The Conference Board (16,61) 61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in current dollars (Q).-Source 2 (24,67) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70,97) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source 3 (30,70) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of work- 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68) 92. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).— Source 4 (35,73) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source 4 (35,73) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1 (30,70) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) ing age (M).-Sourcesland3 (17,62) 91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— Source3 (15,18,62) dollars, durable goods industries (M).— Sources 1, 2, and 3 (13,97) 93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4 (33,72) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source4 (33,72) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66) 98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) 100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 2 (24,67) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (15,35,73) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).-Source4 (22,65) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source4 (24,67) 4 (31,71) 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M),-Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sates in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).— Source 4 (20,64) 83. Index of consumer expectations (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (13,97) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source 4 (20,64) 85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml (Q).-Sources land 4 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. 116. 117. 87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 118. 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) (31,71) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).— 86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel (25,67) 88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).— Source 1 (25,67) (13,31,71) Sources land 4 (31,71) Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 4 (15,35,73) Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source4 (32,72) Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (M).—Sources 1, *4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,72) Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— Source 4 (32,72) Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Source 4 (34,72) Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer (34,73) Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).— U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) (34,72) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 120. Change in consumer price index for services (M).— Sources 1 and 2 (15,97) I-C. Diffusion Indexes 950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).—Source 1 (36,74) 952. Diffusion index of seven lagging indicator components (M).-Sourcel (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about 600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (37,75) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 349 industries (M).—Source 3 (36,74) 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M),-Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board (37,75) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sourcesl and 4 (37,75,78) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, 38-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) 970. Diffusion index of new plant and equipment expenditures by business, 21 industries (Q).—Sources 1 and 2 (38,76) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 976, Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— about 600 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 977, Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade— about 400 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sourcel (42,81) 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (42,81) 247. Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 978, Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a ll-A. National Income and Product 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) (47,83) 30, Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (QV Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars 64, Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).^Sourcel (30,47,70,83) 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 200, Gross national product in current dollars (Q)/ • Sou reel (40,80) 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 213, Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).--Source 1 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars (40,80) (Q).-Sourcel (Q).-Sourcel (Q).-Source 1 (Q).-Sourcel (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) (44,82) (44,82) (44,82) (44,82) 217, Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources land 2 (40,80) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in 220. National income in current dollars (Q). Source 1 (45,82) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) (43,81) 223. Personal income in current dollars (M), Source 1 (40,63) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).Source 1 (40,80) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) (43,81) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q), (47,83) Source 1 290. Gross saving (Q).—Source 1 (46,82) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1 (46,83) 295, Business saving (Q).—Source 1 (46,82) 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product (Q).-Sourcel (48,84) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).—Source 1 (48,84) 320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 322, Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source 3 (48,85) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further processing (M).-Source 3 (48,85) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).— Source 3 (48,86) 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods (M).=-Source3 (48,86) 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities (M).-Source 3 (48,85) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,50,87) 225. Disposable persona! income in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1 (40,80) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q),-Sources land 2 (40,80) vices as a percent of gross national product (Q). Source 1 (47,83) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and 231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars (Q), -Source 1 (41,80) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and 232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,50,88) services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Sourcel (47,83) 348, Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q) .--Sou rce 1 (41,80) 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).™Source 1 (41,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).--Source 1 (41,81) services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 280. Compensation of employees (Q) .-Source 1 (43,81) (43,81) (45,82) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 284, Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).=-Source 1 (45,82) 238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption 239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sourcel (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q).-Souree 1 (42,81) 114 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,50,87) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,50,87) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q) .-Sou rce 3 (50,88) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) tl-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed (M). Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3 (51,89) tion and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 442. Civilian employment (M).-Source3 (51,89) 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q) .-Sou rce 1 (47,83) 288, Net interest (Q).-Sou reel (45,82) 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over (M).-Source3 (51,89) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over (M).-Source3 (51,89) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age(M).~Source3 (51,89) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).SourceS (51,89) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3 (51,89) II-D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q)- Source 1 (52,90) 511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).— Source2 (53,90) 570. Employment, defense products industries (M),Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-US. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).— Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production <M)Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).Source2 (56,92) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M)Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 612. General imports (M).-Source 2 (56,92) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Sourcel (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States (Q).-Sourcel (57,93) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).-Source2 (54,91) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) II-E. U.S. International Transactions 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto CentralediStatistica(Rome) (58,94) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 320. United States, consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).— Source 2 (54,91) 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).-Source 4 (54,91) 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) 47. United States, index of industrial production (M)Source4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) il-F. International Comparisons 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).— Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index (M).— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 736. France, consumer price index (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 742. united Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock Exchange (Toronto) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stoc* prices (M)-Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltaiia (Rome) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USGPO PERMIT No. G-26