Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1989
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary
Michael R. Darby, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
George R. Green, Editor
This report is prepared by the Business Outlook Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
(Telephone: 202-523-0800) Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are as follows:
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Computer system development
Charles S. Robinson—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data base manager
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Frank de Leeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Composite Indexes: Latest Release . .
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
iii
v
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
OCTOBER 1989
Data Through September
Volume 29, Number 10
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
Cl
C2
C3
Chart
Table
10
12
14
15
60
—
—
—
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
16
19
21
23
26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
36
—
39
74
77
—
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department.
BCII
I!.
IMPORTANT
NATIONAL INCOME
A5_
AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
48
49
84
87
51
89
52
53
90
90
56
57
92
93
58
59
59
94
95
96
WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
_Bf]
BJTj
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
[Lei J
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
.JEXLJ
D2J
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
EL J
E2 1]
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
ELJ
J-~2
L£3_J
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
PART III. APPENDIXES
Cyclical Indicators: New Composite Index Components
Current Adjustment factors (August 1989issue)
Historical Data for Selected Series
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1989 issue)
Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (May J989 issue)
Supplemental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
97
98
105
108
112
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication. Address
them to Editor, Business Conditions Digest,
Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230.
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. In this issue, the composite indexes (series 910, 920,
930, and 940) have been revised from January 1984 through
August 1989. This is the first of the annual revisions
(announced early this year) that will incorporate revised data
for component seri es. The revi si on thi s year i ncludes a
technical correction to the standardization factor for one
component of the leading index.
Early this month, BEA discovered that the standardization
factor for the consumer expectations component (series 83)
should have been computed separately for the periods 1952-77
and 1978-85, rather than the entire period 1952-85. A new
standardization factor (3.931), computed over the period 197885, has been applied to the consumer expectations component
from January 1984 forward.
This correction reduces the
inf1uence of this component on the 1eading index in recent
years.
Most revisions to the monthly percent changes in the
composite indexes are very small. For the leading index,
during the period January 1984 through August 1989, 43 of the
68 months have revisions of 0.1 percentage point or less; the
largest revisions are 0.4 percentage point in December 1986 and
in November 1987. Historical data for the composite indexes
are shown in appendix C.
Further information concerning the composite index
revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The November issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on December 7.
in
2. In addition to the composite index revision (see item 1, above), the diffusion
indexes based on the composite index components (series 950, 951, and 952) have been
recomputed from 1984 forward. Historical data for these indexes are shown in appendix C.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division.
3. The index of industrial production for Canada (series 723) has been revised by the
source agency from 1984 forward. This revision reflects the annual updating of the basic
statistics and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from Statistics Canada,
Industry Product Division, Ottawa K1A OV5, Canada.
4. Historical data for series 557, 910, 920, 930, 940, 950-952, 966, and 967 are shown
in appendix C (pages 98-104).
Availability of Data
Data for the composite indexes, their components, and other economic
time series shown in Business Conditions Digest are available in several
forms — printout, diskette, computer tape, and electronic bulletin board.
For information about these products, write to the Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 523-0800.
IV
COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
INDICATORS: SEPTEMBER 1989
The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.2 percent in September to
145.0 (1982=100), according to preliminary estimates released October 31 by the Commerce
Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
On the basis of revised estimates (see page iii), the index increased 0.5 percent
in August and was unchanged in July. A month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that
showed the index increased 0.3 percent in August and 0.1 percent in July. The index of
consumer expectations was the major contributor to the August and July revisions.
Four of 11 indicators contributed to the September increase in the index. They
were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: index of consumer
expectations, money supply in 1982 dollars, average workweek, and stock prices.
Seven of 11 indicators made negative contributions. They were, ordered from the
largest negative contributor to the smallest: manufacturers' new orders for consumer
goods and materials in 1982 dollars, change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982
dollars, contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, vendor
performance (slower deliveries diffusion index), average weekly initial claims for State
unemployment insurance, building permits, and change in sensitive materials prices.
The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate
economic activity, was unchanged in September at 133.9 (1982=100). The index increased
1.0 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July.
The composite index of lagging indicators decreased 0.5 percent in September to
119.7 (1982=100). The index increased 0.3 percent in August and decreased 0.4 percent
in July.
The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic
activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected
to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to
confirm the movements in the coincident index.
More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 106 of this
issue of Business Conditions Digest.
Next release date:
December 1 for the October composite indexes
A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite
indexes and their components immediately upon their release. The message is updated
weekly to include recently available data for composite index components that will be
incorporated into the next release.
This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public
release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge
to users. For information, call (202) 377-1986.
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BBC
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures; Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators, (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part 1 are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1977.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic,
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
Reference Turning Dates
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically
as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the
1981-82.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
1
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N.
Economic
N, Process
Cyclical ^v
Timing
\.
LEADING (I)
INDICATORS
(61 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (!) series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(?, series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Consumption and
trade (1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\v
Economic
\. Process
X.
Cyclical \v
Timing
N.
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
(I series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
marg ns (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(? series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Consumption and
trade (3 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (2 series)
Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
U series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are other indexes based on leading indicators that
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include many
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
11 components of the leadrng index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs,
all but one component of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,lg,l_g." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 21 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18
series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C, Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and- thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a l consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is. the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major e x p e n d i t u r e components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.
Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1977.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components; Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D, Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels;
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1977) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1977) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data,
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1 -quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
Table 1.
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data3
Series title and timing classification
Unit
of
measure
1
Percent change
1*1
iI
Annual average
1987
198B
3dQ
1989
2dQ
1989
198S
July
1989
Sept.
1989
Aug.
1989
Aug,
to
Sept.
1989
July
to
Aug.
1989
2dQ
to
3dQ
1989
IstQ
to
20 Q
1989
$]
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930,
940.
Eleven leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Seven lagging indicators....
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
,
L,L,L.. 1982-100
do
C.C.C....
do
Lf»,lg,Lg....
do
l.l.L...
140.1
122.4
111.3
110.0
142.8
128.2
114.9
111.6
145.4
131.9
119.2
110.7
144.7
132.7
120.0
110.5
144.6
133.5
120.0
111.2
144.0
132.6
120.0
110.5
144.7
133.9
120.3
111.3
145.0
133.9
119.7
111.9
0.5
1.0
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.6
0.7
-0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.
0.6
910
920
930
940
l,l,L.., 1967-100
do
L,L,L...
do
III..,
do
L.L.L....
MA
106.3
121.7
145.8
NA
105,8
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
914
915
916
917
ILL ... Hours
do
L.C.L...
L,C,L... Thousands
41.0
3.7
320
41.1
3,9
305
41.1
3.9
306
41.1
3.8
313
41.0
3.8
325
41.0
3.9
338
40.9
3.7
316
41.0
3.8
320
-0.2
-0.2
6.5
0,2
0.1
-1.3
0.615
153
0.701
158
0.718
154
0.699
153
0.676
148
0.687
150
0.681
147
189.99 196.44
1 0 9 . 2 3 111.80
102.20 105.58
24,708 25,249
200.32
113.66
107.68
25,634
201.44
114.18
108.34
25,664
202.20
114.24
108.90
25,651
202.54
114.24
108.77
25,669
leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
917. Money and financial flows
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments;
*1 Average weekly hours mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
,
*S. Average weekly initial claims (inverted1)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers.
L,Lg,U.... Ratio.,,....
L,Lg,U.... 1967-100
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in (^agricultural establishments
42, Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities.,
*41. Employees on nonagneultural payrolls.....
40 Employees in goods-producing industries
SO. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
U,Lg,U.... Percent
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number oi persons unemployed (inverted1)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted1)3
45. Avg, weekly insured unemployment rate (inv/)!
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted1)
44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.1)3
l,Lg,U,.,,
l.lg.U....
L,Lg,U....
Lg,lg,lg...Lg,lg,Lg....
U,C,C.... A.r., oil. hrs......
U,C,C.... Millions
do
C.C.C....
L C U ... Thousands
Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent
0.
-0.1
-2.3
-0.2
0.
-3.8
0.660 -0.006 - 0 . 0 2 1 -0.019 - 0 . 0 2 3
146
-2.0
-0.7
-0.6
-3.3
2 0 1 . 5 9 202.4-8
114.29 114.20
108.86 109.06
25,696 25,588
-0.5
0.
0.1
0.1
60.77
61.54
62.19
62.26
62,23
62.26
62.28
62.16
7 ,425
6.2
2.4
14.5
1.7
6,701
5.5
2.1
13.5
1.3
6,391
5.2
2.1
12.4
1.1
6,501
5.3
2.1
11.9
1.1
6,501
5.2
2.1
11.6
1.1
6,497
5.2
2,2
12.0
1.2
6,421
5.2
2.1
11.3
1.1
6,584
5.3
2.1
11.4
1.1
1.2
0.
0.1
5.8
0.1
4158.1
3416.7 3407.8 3420.1 3422.1
0.4
0.02
0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.5
-0.1
1
21
5
60
46
48
42
41
40
-0.12
0.07
-2.5
-0.1
0.
-0.9
0.
-1.7
-0.1
0.
4.0
0.
0.
0.1
0.
2.5
0.
37
43
45
91
44
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
50
52
0.3
0.
0.6
0.7
51
0.6
53
0.3
0.1
0.8
0.7
47
73
74
49
82
84
-0.03
90
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50, Gross national product in 1982 dollars.
52 Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
3853.7 4024.4 4106.8 4132.5
3153.7 3264.5 3371.4 3390.9
CtC,C.... A.r., bil.dol
do
C C C ...
CCC
do
CCC..,
do
2696.0 2794.8 2890.2 2907.9 2929.4 2922.7
....
544.5
560.8
568.4
129.8
133.1
136.8
1669.0
137.2
141.9
143.9
1771.6
140.7
146.0
148.4
1823.2
81.0
80.5
83.6
83.7
84.4
84,1
2932.4 2933,2
568.2
566.3
569.7
568.5
0.6
-0.2
141.8
142.2
147.1
147.2
149.9
151.1
1843.9 1 8 5 7 . 6
142.0
147.0
150.9
142.4
147.6
151.1
142.3
146.9
151.3
0.3
0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
0.1
84.1
83.7
84.1
83.8
83.7
83.4
0.
0.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
119.51 1 2 5 . 9 9 1 2 6 . 0 1 1 2 5 . 1 8 1 2 2 , 0 3 1 2 6 . 8 2
1 0 4 . 7 6 1 0 7 . 3 8 106.85 1 0 5 , 5 4 1 0 3 . 2 4 107.12
126.68
106.27
3.9
3.8
-0.1
-0.8
0.
-0.5
-0.7
-1.2
..........do
84.57
87.20
88.70
88.15
86.92
82.90
90.70
87.15
do
2.50
3.93
4.34
3.34
1.75
4.92
-1.56
1.88
Bil. dol., EQP ... 4 0 0 . 7 2 447 .87 4 6 0 . 9 0 4 7 0 . 9 2 4 7 6 . 1 5 4 7 5 . 8 3 4 7 4 . 2 7 4 7 6 . 1 5
57.4
57.7
52.8
50.0
45.2
Percent
43,8
46.9
44.9
-6.48
-0.3
3.44
0.4
-1.00
2.2
-1.59
1.1
8
25
96
32
3.1
3.3
0.3
0.7
1.2
NA
NA
0.1
0.5
0.3
NA
NA
-0.2
1.6
1.7
7.1
1.8
56
57
75
54
59
55
58
-1.8
NA
12
13
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74, Industrial production, nondurable mfrs.....
49 Value of goods output in 1982 dollars
C,C,C.,.. 1977-100
do
C,C,C,...
do
C,l,L...
C C C A r bil do)
Capacity Utilization:
82, Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84 Capacity utilization rate materials1
L,C,U.,.. Percent
L CU
do
565.0
84.4
83.9
84.0
83.6
-0.6
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
B3, Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.1 new orders, durable goods
L.L.L....
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
l,L,l,,,
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials 1
'.
l,l,L..,
25. Change in mfrs. unfilled orders, durable goods3
1,1,1....
96. Mfrs,' unfilled orders, durable goods5
L,Lg U ...
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3
l,L,L...
Consumption and Trade;
56. Manufacturing and trade sales...,.
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stares in 1982 dollars ,
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment (vf)
C,C,C....
C,C,C....
C.L.C....
C.L.U....
U,l,U....
L.C.C....
l,L,L...
Bil do)
do
Bil. dol
do
1977-100
Bil. dol
do
A.r., bil.dol
IQ 1966- 100,
107.72
98.28
449.21
434.31
127.8
126.78
114.88
131.7
90.6
484.95
450.10
133.9
135.76
119.12
144.2
93.7
5 0 8 . 9 2 517.18
NA 511.14 5 2 6 . 7 9
NA
NA 4 5 1 . 8 0 4 6 6 . 5 7
454.89 457.49
NA
139.2
138.5
139.5
138.9
139.3
139.5
1 3 9 . 6 6 1 4 2 . 1 5 1 4 4 . 4 3 143.56 144.51 1 4 5 . 2 1
120.26 1 2 0 . 7 1 1 2 2 . 7 4 121.66 1 2 3 . 0 9 1 2 3 . 4 8
142.7
144.5
154.7
95.9
90.9
92.5
89.6
95.8
92.0
-2.6
6.9
1.6
0.6
0.7
1.8
0,4
1.3
-5.2
0.
NA
-0.8
-3.8
6
7
64, Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
12 Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders far plant and equipment....,
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars.....
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods
III 1967-100
l,L,L»» Number
121.2
124.1
126.5
125.5
57 ,113 5 6 , 9 4 5 59 ,119 5 6 , 8 5 6
123.2
124.4
NA 5 4 , 5 1 9
122.6
NA
122.6
NA
-1.4
NA
L(L,L... Bil. dol
34.67
39.85
43.05
43.51
42,71
45.99
41.71
40.42
-9.3
l.L.L...
L,L,L-
do...
do
39.51
29.66
44.96
35.01
47.19
38.56
47.72
38.94
47.61
37.89
50.01
41.44
47.00
37.16
45.81
35.08
-6.0
-10.3
LLL...
.do
3 5 . IS
40.89
43 . S 9
LL . nn
LI .7 1
Lf* . in
Al
A1
11
1 A
-ft L
-3.1
1.1
-1.8
10
-2,5
-5.6
1,1
1.0
-0.2
-2,7
20
24
„/. o
i i
_n T
*j i
Table 1.
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification1
of
Percent change
Annual average
1987
1988
IstQ
1989
2dQ
1989
July
to
Aug.
1989
Sept.
1989
Aug.
1989
July
1989
3dQ
1989
IstQ
to
2dQ
1989
Sept,
1989
*
2dQ
to
3dQ
1989
e
.3
*
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments— Con.:
9. Construction contracts awardedjor commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.... Mif.sq.ft
Bil dot
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s
C.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...
Business Investment Expenditures:
A.r,,bil. dol
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
do
construction expenditures
C,Lg,Lg....
76. Industrial production, business equipment
C.lg.lL.. 1977 = 100
86. Presidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
C,Lg,C.... A.r.p bil. dol
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment;
28 New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89 Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
-s
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
L,L,L... A.r., thousands,.
L,L,L... 1967=100
ILL A r bil dol
74.43
NA
NA
76.73
NA
NA
389.67 430.76 459.47
470.86
481.24
404.67 453.10 478.60 488.30
157.6
165.0
168.8
144.5
493.8
511.4
455.5
501.0
1 ,620
122.9
194.8
1,488
116.0
194.1
23.7
66.89
85.52
NA 4 8 4 . 0 4 5 0 8 . 2 0
169.5
168.9
169.9
518.0
NA
169.8
5.0
0.6
1,420
102.2
1,332
105.9
1,263
105.2
-6.2
3.6
77.79
-14.0
27.9
NA
-0,1
61
NA
0.4
1.3
69
76
86
30
NA
NA
36
31
NA
38
2.0
0.6
2.2
NA
NA
NA
71
70
65
19.1
30.2
25 .10
46.9
20.34
53.0
22.31
47.1
-2.25
61.2
NA
NA
10.57
81.4
11.30
27.4
NA
NA
0.73
-54.0
1.48
1.79
1.22
-0.25
NA
3.37
-0.67
NA
-4.04
NA
Lg,Lg,lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 7 0 0 . 7 6 7 5 3 , 7 2 7 6 5 . 5 0 7 8 0 , 8 0
664.72 687.97 690.50 694.54
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
1 0 6 . 8 2 1 1 3 . 9 3 115.36 1 1 7 . 8 5
do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
NA 7 8 7 . 5 8 7 8 9 . 8 6
NA 6 9 7 . 1 2 6 9 9 , 0 3
NA 119.02 119.20
NA
NA
NA
0.3
0.3
0.2
NA
NA
NA
L&L&Lg... Ratio
NA
L,Lg,lg.... Bi!. dol., EOP ... 2 5 5 . 1 1 2 7 6 . 5 6 2 8 0 . 2 2 2 7 9 . 4 8
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.1
11.1
24.5
1.51
2.5
-5,4
27.9
1.52
9
11
97
NA - 2 4 , 5 6
NA
14,1
1,338
104.4
187.0
1.50
3.1
NA
NA
28
29
89
1,352
106.0
189.3
1.50
1.1
NA
NA
-1.0
-1.5
-1.2
1,517
109.5
195.6
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
L,L,L . . .do. ..
36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
63
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed )
L,l,L . . .do. .
. . do .
31 Change in mfg and trade inventories3
L,L,L
38. Change in mfr$.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and'on order^ .
ILL Bil dol , . ..
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71 Mfg and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order5
80.65 75.76 73.62
2 9 . 7 9 3 9 . 3 0 50.01
7 8 . 0 6 1 0 0 . 2 0 114.55
-5.2
-0.7
-10.9
-3.2
-3,2
-1.47
1.54
1.50
NA
-0.04
NA
-0.01
NA
77
NA 2 8 2 . 8 5
282.18
NA
-0.2
NA
-0.3
NA
78
-0.21
325.0
-0.47
B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials ©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed') 3
L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967-100
L,L,L... Percent
0.29
327.0
-0.48
0.57
-0.5
-0.24
0.50
0.6
-0.01
-0.81
0.6
-0.42
-0.28
-1.6
-0.88
98
23
99
Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks (u)
L,L,L... 1941-43-10... 2 8 6 . 8 3 2 6 5 . 7 9 2 9 0 . 7 1 3 1 3 . 3 0 3 4 1 . 9 6 3 3 1 . 9 3 3 4 6 . 6 1 3 4 7 . 3 3
4.4
0.2
7.8
9.1
19
Profits and Profit Margins:
16 Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars
15 Profits after taxes per dollar of sales mfg 3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
L L L A r bil dol
do
L.L.L....
do
L.C.L....
do
L CL
ILL Cents
L.L.L.... 1977 = 100
142.0
126.8
174.0
159.6
4.8
98.7
168.9
148.0
190.7
170,1
6.0
98.7
173.6
147 .5
171.9
145.8
5.9
98.2
161.1
133.2
172.9
145.0
4.8
98.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-7.2
-9.7
0.6
-0.5
-1.1
-0. 1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
16
18
79
80
15
26
Cash Flows:
34 Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars
ILL A.r., bil. dol
x..do
L,L,L...
397 .3
392.8
427 .0
419.9
426.9
416.5
412.2
401.9
NA
NA
-3.4
-3.5
NA
NA
34
35
63
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share;
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg.,.. 1977=100
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Index
Lg,Lg,Lg,., 1977 = 100
*b) Percent change3 '
Lg,Lg,Lg,., A.r., percent
64. Compensation of 5employees as percent of
national income
. Lg,Lg,Lg,. Percent
1.36
274,5
1.09
0.31
303.3
0.45
0.86
329.5
0.91
0.05
331.5
0.49
-0.23
326.2
-0.39
-0.78
326.7
-0.23
171.9
177 .2
181.9
184.3
NA
1.3
NA
0.730
0.744
0.768
0.778
NA
1.3
NA
68
137.2
-0.9
138.3
1.5
139.6
1.6
139.2
1.7
140.2
1.5
-0.3
0.1
0.7
-0,2
62
62
73.4
73.2
73.2
73.4
NA
0.2
NA
64
-0.51
0,
-0.13
-2.9
-1.3
1.16
0.63
NA
-0.1
1.2
85
102
104
105
106
0.064
0.208
0.023 -0.008
107
108
NA
NA
-6.03 -38.21
NA
NA
NA
NA
-6.8
NA
33
112
113
111
110
NA
39
139.8
1.1
140.2
1.5
140.5
1.8
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.3
B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml3
102 Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105 Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
*106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
do
L,L,L....
do
. L,C,LL
do
L.L.L..
L,L,L.. Bil dol
do
L.L.L.,
Velocity of Money:
107 Ratio GNP to money supply Ml3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
C C C Ratio
do
C,Lg,C...
Credit
33
112.
113
111.
110.
Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt33
Net change in business loans
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5
0.30
0.41
-0.17
-0.68
0.48
0.91
0.05
0.49
0.10
0.73
0.96
0.60
0.29
0.45
0.63
0.10
NA
NA
0.74
0.43
0.62
0.37
0.24
0.39
631.6
604.4
603.5
602.6
602.9
632.7
604.9
622.7
2430.0 2 4 5 3 . 7 2431.0 2400.3 2430.3 2416.7 2431,3 2 4 4 2 . 8
6.078
1.319
6.707
1.429
6.771
1.421
NA
NA
L,L,L... A.r,, bil. dol
NA
NA
do
L,L,L...
8.30
37.84
73.57
67 .54
do
L,L,L...
35.67
NA
38.75
51.79
L,L,L... A.r,, percent....
6.1
NA
8.3
7.9
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
5 5 3 . 2 0 6 1 5 . 2 2 585 .93 5 4 6 , 2 8
L,L,L. Percent, EOP ..
2.47
6.289
1.350
2.49
6.499
1.406
2.39
2.30
-0.86
-0.36
-0.31
0.
0.6
0.44
0.03
NA
0.3
0.5
1.425
1.421
1.416
-0.004 -0.005
NA
29.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
12.97
-6.06
1.8
NA
NA
93.07 -18.04
41.71
NA
NA
7.1
NA
NA
80.10 -111.1
NA
47,77
NA
5 .3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.09
Table 1.
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data3
Series title and timing classification
Unit
of
measure
1
Percent change
,£
{'•
Annual average
1987
3dQ
1989
2dQ
198S
IstQ
1989
July
1989
Aug.
1889
Aug.
to
Sept,
1989
July
to
Aug.
1989
Sept.
1989
1988
2dQ
to
3dQ
1989
IstQ
to
2dQ
1989
LJ
»
&
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7, Money and Credit— Cwi.
Bank Reserves:
93, Free reserves (inverted*) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve'®
L.U.U.... Mil. dol
do
L,Lg,U....
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate5 ®
114, Discount rate on new Treasury bills3®
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds3®
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117, Yield on municipal bonds3 ®
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3®
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3®
•109. Average prime rate charged by banks3®
Ug,Lg,,., Percent
do
C.lg.lg....
,,do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do
C.lg.Lg.,..
do
U.lg.Lg...,
do
tg,lg,Lg....
do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
.do
Lg,lg,Lg.,..
Outstanding Debt:
66, Consumer installment credit outstanding'
11. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95, Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income5..,
,
241 -1,332
756
2,357
-569
1,654
-929
. 1,833
7.57
6.67
9.96
8.98
7.68
10.49
9.18
9.32
9.44
8.53
10.12
9.19
7.46
10.91
10.97
10. 98
9.73
8.44
9.72
8.84
7.25
10.50
11.89
11.36
6.66
5.83
9,69
8.63
7.64
10.16
8.09
8.20
226
687
272
694
210
675
195
693
62
-19
15
18
9.08
7.85
9.19
8.25
7.09
9.83
10.78
10.66
9.24
7.92
9.20
8.19
6.96
9.61
8.99
7. 91
9.08
8.26
7,06
9.95
9.02
7 .72
9.29
8.31
7.26
9.94
-0.25
-0,01
-0.12
0.07
0.10
0.34
0.03
-0.19
0.21
0.05
0.20
-0.01
10.98
10.50
0.
360 -1,155
179 -1,146
93
94
0.29
-0.09
-0.40
-0.35
-0.21
-0.41
0.92
0.38
-0.65
-0,59
-0.53
-0.59
-0.16
-0.67
-1.11
-0.70
119
114
116
US
117
118
67
109
10.50
-0.48
NA 7 0 0 . 3 4 7 0 3 . 8 2
NA
Lg.Lg.Lg-... Bit. dot, EOP ... 6 0 7 . 7 2 6 5 9 . 5 1 691.16 7 0 0 . 8 5
364.07 3 9 0 . 3 2 418.54 4 3 5 . 2 9 445.94 441.27 449.03 4 4 7 , 5 2
Lg,Lg,lg..,. Bil. do)
0.5
1.8
NA
-0.3
1.4
4.0
NA
2.4
66
72
400.92 398.51
2.4
-0.6
2.3
2.8
101
NA
0.03
NA
NA
95
125.0
0.2
126.2
112.3
111.9
102.3
112.3
120.2
112.5
0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0,6
-0.7
-1.9
-0.3
0.3
-0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.1
0.4
1.0
0,9
1.1
1.6
0.
1.6
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.1
0.7
2.0
0.7
0.8
-0.4
0.9
-0.4
-0,4
-1,8
-0.4
1.0
-0.5
310
320
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334
Lg.Lg.Lg....
377.28 386.00 396.99
391.54
NA
15.76
15.79
125.9
123.7
0.5
124.8
112.8
112.2
104.1
112.5
118.1
112.6
126.8
124.7
0.1
125.9
112.3
111.8
102.2
112.1
119.3
112.0
124.4
0.2
125.7
112.7
112.2
103.2
112.2
118.7
112.1
124.6
0.
125.9
112.0
111.4
101.2
111.9
119.0
111.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
340
NA
204.8
101.8
113.9
111.8
NA
207.6
101.6
114.3
112.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.4
-0.2
0,4
0.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
341
345
346
370
358
124.00 1 2 3 . 9 6 1 2 4 . 0 2 124.04
117 .50 117 .46 117.60 117.46
6,584
6,497
6,421
6,501
2,854
2,734
2,790
3,038
2,613
2,468
2,478
2,353
1,150
1,163
1,169
1,193
5,218
5,183
5,219
5,255
0.
0.1
-1.2
2.0
-5.5
1.1
-0.7
0.
-0.1
2.5
8.9
-4.7
2.6
1.4
0.4
0.3
1.7
-1.0
5.2
1.3
0,9
0.2
0.2
0.
2.0
-0.8
-2,8
1.1
441
442
37
444
445
446
447
-0.1
-0.1
1.3
0.1
0.
-0.9
0.
0.1
0.8
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
451
452
453
2.1
1*6
1.3
-1.3
1.4
1.7
NA
NA
-0.6
NA
NA
1.6
500
501
502
510
511
512
354.19
364.95
15.57
15.69
15.91
15.86
117.4
113.6
0.4
113.5
102.8
102.6
93.7
101.5
111.7
103.6
121.3
118.3
0.3
118.2
106.9
106.3
96.0
107.1
114.3
106.2
124.5
121.7
0.5
122.8
110,9
110.1
102.3
111.3
117.3
110.4
1977-100
173.5
179.0
.....do
do
do
do..,
do
94.0
188.9
100.8
111.1
108.9
93.3
197.9
101.4
113.1
111.2
do
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
-0.05
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Dl. Price Movements
320,
320c.
322
330
335
331.
332.
333
334
1982-100
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©,.,. 1982-84-100.
Percent.,
Change in CPI-U (S/A)3..
1982-84-100.
Consumer price index for all urban consumers food
1982=100 .
Producer price index (PPI) all commodities ®
do.
PPI industrial commodities ©
do
PPI, crude materials for further processing
do
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
do
PPI capital equipment
do
PPI finished consumer goods
B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagrieultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370, Output per hour, business sector
358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector
NA
NA
NA
NA
C. labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442
37
444
445.
446
447
Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed fulhtime workers . .
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451 Males 20 years and over3
,
452. Females 20 years and over3
453 Both sexes 16=19 years of age3
,
Millions ,
do
Thousands
do
do....,
do
. . do
Percent
do
do
119.86 121.67 1 2 3 . 2 9 1 2 3 . 7 9
112.44 114.97 116.90 117.29
7 ,425 6,701
6,391 6,501
2,987
2,826
3,369
2,798
2,709
2,376
2,499
2,487
1,347
l',203
1,226
1,188
5,357
5,116
5,979
5,161
78.0
56.2
54.7
77.9
56.8
55.3
78.1
57.6
55.2
78.1
57.7
56.0
77.9
57.8
55.8
A.r bil dol .
do
do
do
do
do
-161.4 - 1 4 5 . 8 - 1 4 7 . 5 -145.4
911.4
9 7 2 . 4 1036.2 1053.2
1 0 7 2 . 8 1118.3 1183.7 1198.6
49.7
48.8
51.3
47.5
656.1
732.6
701.6
742.6
604.6
683.8
651.9
695.1
NA
NA
1191,0
NA
NA
706.3
Mil dol
do
do
1977^100
Thousands
A.r., bil. dol
30,812 31,783 30,832 30,315
11,977
NA
NA
NA
9,145
9,140
8,478
8,354
188.9
185.8
179.3
180.6
1,580
1,550
1,529
1,528
294.8
298.0
298.7
301.3
Mil. dol
. . , do
do
do
do
do
21,176 2 6 , 8 6 8 2 9 , 2 9 4 30,833
2,400
3,114
3,337
3,548
4,428
5,830
5,549
5,823
33,854 36,746 38,549 39,624
3,471 3,209
3,680
4,470
5,896
5,942
6,078
5,643
77.9
57.9
55.2
77.8
57.8
56.5
77.9
57.8
55.6
D, Government Activities
Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
500,
501.
502,
510
511,
512
Federal Government surplus or deficit3 .
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
517
525.
§48
557,
570
564.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs ' new orders defense products ...
Industrial production, defense and space equipment
Employment defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense
,. ,
D2. Defense Indicators
NA 3 0 , 9 9 6 2 8 , 5 3 0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
9,313
7,626
7 , 9 2 7 12,387
181.1
181.7
181.0
180.5
NA
1,522
1,514
NA
306.2
-8.0
NA
3.9
-0.4
-0.5
NA
NA
56.3
-0.3
NA
-1.7
NA
-1.5
0.7
-0.1
0.9
NA
NA
11.5
0.3
NA
1.6
517
525
548
557
570
564
-0.2
-14.2
-1.3
6.4
2.3
-3.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.3
6.3
-0.1
2.8
21.5
-7.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
602
604
606
612
614
616
E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612,
614,
616.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
...
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts
.....
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
30,468 30,408
3,657
3,139
6,371
6,290
3 8 , 7 0 9 41,180
4,130
4,227
5 .621 5 . 4 2 6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Table 1.
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title
E
;nnual averag »
of
2d Q
1988
3dQ
1988
4th Q
1988
IStQ
1989
2dQ
1989
3dQ
1989
4th Q
to
IstQ
1989
IstQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1989
to
2dQ
1987
1988
-29.37
97.99
127,36
...do.
...do.. . - 3 6 . 2 6
55.84
..do
92.11
. .do. .. .
22.15
...do. ...
16.74
do
-32.37
111.54
143.91
-39.88
62.57
102.44
26.18
20.60
-27.97
132.45
160.42
-31.80
79.81
111.62
26.94
26.39
-30.59
126.80
157.39
-31.41
78.47
109.88
23.15
25.61
-28.96
131.57
160.54
-30.34
80.60
110.94
24.72
27.31
-23.66
143.63
167 .28
-32.02
83.73
115.75
33.16
28.67
-26 .86
142.17
169.03
-28.38
87.92
116.30
26.83
29,25
-27 .89
145.86
173.76
-27.72
90.87
118.58
26.93
31.95
NA
NA
HA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-3.20
-1.0
1.0
3.64
5.0
0.5
-19.1
2.0
-1.03
2,6
2 ,8
A.r., bil. dol
do
do.
A.r., dollars
4231.6
3717.9
15,385
3712.4
3013.3
2635.3
10,905
4524.3
3853.7
15,794
3830.0
3205.9
2676.6
10,970
4880.6
4024.4
16,334
3996.5
3477.8
2793.2
11,337
4838.5
4010.7
16,303
3989.2
3435.9
2773.3
11,273
4926.9
4042.7
16,388
4005.2
3511.7
2 8 0 6 .4
11,377
5017.3
4069.4
16,452
4051.0
3587.4
2835.9
11,466
5113.1
4106.8
16,567
4082.3
3689.5
2881.7
11,625
5201.7
4132.5
16,633
4113,5
3 7 4 7 .7
2 8 8 7 .6
11,622
5273.2
4158,1
16,690
4127 .9
3809.8
292 1 .5
11,726
A.r., bil. dol.. ..
.. .do ....
. ..do. . .
. .do .
do. . ..
.do. . .
.. ..do
do
2797.4
2446.4
406.0
384.4
942.0
878.1
1449,5
1183.8
3010.8
2513.7
421.0
389.6
998.1
890.4
1591.7
1233.7
3235.1
2598.4
455.2
413.6
1052.3
904.5
1727.6
1280.2
3204.9
2586.8
454.6
414.8
1042.4
899.2
1707 .9
1272.8
3263.4
2608. 1
452.5
410.7
1066.2
910.3
1744.7
1287.0
3324.0
2627 .7
467.4
420,5
1078,4
912.0
1778.2
1295.2
3381.4
2641,0
466.4
419.3
1098.3
915.0
1816.7
1306.7
3444.1 3509.5
2 6 5 3 . 7 2 6 9 1 .2
47 1.0 4 9 0 . 4
424.9
440.0
1121.5 1128.9
918.6
909.7
1851,7 1590.1
1319.0 1332,5
659.4
639.6
652.5
634.1
6.9
5.6
699.9
674.0
670.6
650,3
29.3
23.7
750.3
715.8
7 19 .6
687 .9
30.6
27 .9
748,4
713.5
719.1
692 . 0
29,3
21.5
771.1
733.6
726 . 5
696.1
44.6
37.5
791.0
735.2
755 . 8
705 . 0
35 .1
30.2
2.2
1 .7
1.1
0. 8
9.0
6 .2
0.7
-0 .2
0.8
0. 6
872.2
761.6
366 .5
334.1
505.7
427.5
926 . 1
781.8
381.6
339.6
544.5
442.1
9689
785.1
381.3
328.9
587.6
456.2
960.1
783.0
377.1
327 .9
583.0
455.1
9 5 8 6 1011 4 1016 0 1033 2 1 040 5
799,7
806.4
805.7
810.3
775,9
367.5
406 .4
399 .0
406 . 0 403 . 1
319.8
335.5
343.6
343.9
335.9
617.0
627.2
591.0
604.9
637.4
464.2
456.1
466.7
462.5
469.9
0 5
-0,8
-1.8
-2.4
2.0
0.4
- 9 7 . 4 -112.6
-129.7 -115.7
448.6
396.5
397.1
450.9
561 2
493 8
566.6
526.9
-73.7
-74.9
547.7
530.1
621 3
605.0
-74.9
-72.6
532.5
519.7
607 5
592.3
-66.2
-74.9
556.8
531.9
623 0
606,9
-67.7
-74.1
618.6
5 87 .'5
686 3
661.6
NA
1986
^_
F ercent chang e
1989
.S
M
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669
622
618
620
651.
652.
Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Bil. dol
do
.
.
..
.
.
3.4
2.0
0.4
9.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652
1.9
0,9
0.7
0.8
2.8
1.6
1.4
1.7
0.6
0.4
0.8
1.6
0 .2
0.
1.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
1.7
1 .2
0.9
200
50
217
213
224
225
227
1.7
0.5
-0.2
-0.3
1.8
0.3
2.2
0.9
1 ,9
0.5
1.0
1.3
2. 1
1,9
1.4
4.1
3.6
0.7
1.0
2.1
1.0
230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239
2 .1
2.1
1. 1
0 .6
7 .7
11.1
240
241
242
243
245
30
1 7
1.3
1.8
2.4
1,7
0.5
0 7
-0.6
-0.7
-2.2
1.6
0.7
26 0
261
262
263
266
267
16.8
18.8
4.5
3.3
1 4
-0.1
3.4
3.8
3.4
3.1
2 6
2.3
-17.1
-22,9
-1.2
0.
1 4
3.6
250
255
252
256
253
257
2 i
2 9
1 5
1 0
NA
220
0.66
A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200
50
217
213
224.
225
227,
Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
. .
A r bil dol
do
A.r., dollars
".
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
.230
231
232.
233
236
238.
237
239.
Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
Services
Services in 1982 dollars
240
241
242
243
245
30
Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
260
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.
Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars
-0.6
1.9
0.9
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
do
do
do
do
do
do
752,8
709 . 1
734.1
690.8
18.7
18.3
769.6
721.1
742 . 0
696 .6
27 ,7
24.5
775.0
719.8
747 .6
700.7
27 .4
19.1
-0.3
-5 .4
of Goods and Services
.. do . ...
do. ..
..do. ..
do.. .
do..
.
.
...do..
A5. Foreign Trade
250.
255.
252.
256.
253
257.
Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3
Exports of goods and services ...
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars.
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
..
.do
...do.
. . .do.. ..
. .vdo.
.,
do..
. .do.
.
-70.8
-73.8
579.7
551.4
650 5
625.2
-54.0
-55.0
605.6
569.7
659 6
624.6
-50.6
-51.2
626.1
587.5
676 6
638.7
A6. National Income and Its Components
220
280
282
284
286.
288
National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest
290
295
292.
298.
293.
Gross saving
.
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate1
do
do
do
do
do
do
366 5 4 3 9 7 2 6 3 9 3 3 6 4005 7 4 0 9 7 4 41 85 2 4 2 4 9 6
2 6 9 0 0 9 Q n 7 ft 9 R7 R Q 7 Q <t c i 9 Q Q 7 9 <i rjA i 7 •l 1 1 o 7
^n 7
o
^ 9 ft 1
2 82 0
311 6
m e
11 6
14 6
16 3
13 4
15 7
11 8
16 1
9 8
282.1
298.7
325.3
340.2
328.6
316.3
307.8
330.9
•a
o
o
n
"\ Q 1 ^
331 9
353 6
3412 6
t S 1 1 L.
o 17 n
e
1
4 8
NA
— 26 7
-7.0
1
i
7
2 QA
ft
707
— 16 9
-2.7
-51 0
NA
2 84
286
0.3
1.1
-2.4
0.8
-0,2
NA
NA
-2.3
NA
-0 .3
290
2 95
292
298
293
9
A7. Saving
. .. .do. ..
525.3
553.8
544 .6
562 0
101,8
124.9
. . .do... . -144.1 -110.1
Percent.
3 .2
4.1
...
.do....
. . .do . . .
642 ,4
593 8
144.7
-96.1
4 .2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOF, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.
2
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source-agencies are used if available.
633.4
588.5
134.0
-89.1
3 .9
3
6 6 9 . 8 647 .4
592 8
6 05 ,8
149.6
163.4
- 7 2 . 7 -121.9
4 ,6
4.3
693 .5
5 86 4
205.7
-98.7
5 .6
695.8
593 , 0
200.7
-97.9
5 .4
NA
NA
196.0
NA
5 .1
7. 1
-3 . 2
25.9
23.2
1. 0
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
' Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart Al. Composite Indexes
July May
Aug. Apt
P
f
Dee. Nov.
Apr, Feb.
Nov. Mar,
P
P T
T
Jin, July July
P I P
Nev.
T
[Fdex: 1982^1001
910. Index of eleven leading kKficators
hi
(tote 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106)
\i A/V
/
-10
-2
/
'10
920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(Series 41,47, 51, 57)
930, Index of seven lagging indicators
(Series 62, 77, 91,95,101,109,120)
[9]
+3 ^
\J
+9
ss ee 57
sa §4 as
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 S3 S3
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60,
10
OCTOBER
1989
ltd)
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Nov. Mar.
F
T
i. July July Nov.
1
T
P
T
[index: 1967 =^1001
915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36, 99)
916. Profitability (series 19,26,80)
917. Money and financial flows (series 104,106, 111)
(Index: 1982=109
130 T
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
-9
-11
-27
-9
120-
10090
80 =J
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
BCII OCTOBER
1989
11
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
Ay?}. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P
Dee.
T
P
to
T
P
I
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)
5. Average wtekfy initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale)
L
8, Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials industries (bil. dot) [MI £
32. Vendor performance—slower deiveries diffusion index (percent)
. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (bMol.)
cn
53 m m m &/ m st 60 si si 03 64 m 66
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66.
12
OCTOBER 1989
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Jan. July July
F T P
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Nov.
T
29. New private housing units authorized by local
building permits (index: 1967=100)
r^u Profile'IH' niflllUTiICtUI£t& illkllllCu 0)uCTS ITI''1 !)o£ uOiI3fi
durable goods industries, smoothed1 (bil. dol,)
99, Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
U,L
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)
106, Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil, dol.)
UU
83. Index of consumer expectations2 (index: 1st Q 1966-100)
1952
'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 69, 71, and 97.
ItCII OCTOBER 1989
13
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Dec. Rtov.
P T
Nov.
P
Jan. Jstly My
F T P
^J v
I
41. Employees on nonagricutoiral payrolls (millions)
(cZcl
51, Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (arm, rate, bil, dol)
47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100)
57, Manufacturing and trade sales in
1982 dollars (bit, dol,)
C,C,C
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.
14
OCTOBER 1989
ItCII
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov.
P
Mar,
T
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
91, Average duration of unemployment (weeks— inverted scale) | Lg,Lg,Ig
i! 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
198L(ioilarsiratio)
f\
w
A , ,
r
.
.
.
mj\^
r/ VM^^J*^
^ \^
'
.^
. -_
-
„
Hi
^"^^^Vi
,»,*
"f*^Vr ^^^^
1.81.71.6
1.5-
62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output,,
te, percent)
95, Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income
U.U.Lg
120. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed1
(ann. rate, percent) |Lg,Lg,Lg
S
'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 73, and 97.
BCII OCTOBER
1989
15
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment
,'-!in. Idty My
F T P
Kay.
T
[Marginal Employment Adjustments |
42-
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory woiters,
manufacturing (hours) |L.L,LJ
41-
49-
38*
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nomupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)
Tc
^Mfto
•=-
3-
5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) [L,C,l|
I Job Vacancies |
1.4 -
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number
of persons unemployed (ratio) [y7]f]r
1J-
0.6-
tl/S
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=100)
luP
Current data for these series are shown on page 61.
16
OCTOBER 1989
OYOLDCAL IMDBC/WDiS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
| Comprehensive Employment |
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establisl
(arm, rate, bil. hours) fil"c~c
1104
42. Persons; engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)
s'
Employees on nonagricultural p
1
40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing
industries (millions) n~c"
27-
25 «
60 «
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent)
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.
ltd)
OCTOBER 1989
17
CYCLICAL
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Jan. July
f» T
My
P
W»v.
T
| Comprehensive Unemployment |
37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)
ta-
il
311-
O-
43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)
fu
10-
n45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—invertedjcate)
4-
91, Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
14-
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)
1062
S3
64
8g
§6
67
ii
80 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.
18
OCTOBER 1989
BCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Jan. July
F
T
July
Nov.
P
T
[Comprehensive Output and Income |
50, Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. do).)
3201-
52. Personal income in 1982 doHarsJam. rate, bil. dd)
2M0-
2800-
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
(arm. rate, bit. dol.) | c c c |
mm =
53, Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
and construction (ann, rate, bit dd.) | c c c | = "
Currant data for these series are shown on page 63.
BCII
OCTOBER 1989
19
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
ton li% My
P I P
Ngy.
P
| Industrial Production |
47, Industriproductton (index: 1977 = 100)
73. industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1977 = 100)
74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1977-100)
cTt
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q
(am, rate, bil. dol.)
[Capacity Utilization|
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) |"L,C,U|
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) | L,C,U
Currant data for that* itrlat ar*ihown on p*t«s 63 and 64.
20
OCTOBER 1989
KCII
INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
[Orders and Deliveries!
orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars
durable goods industries (bil. doi.)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars; consumer
goods and materials industries'(bil. dol.)
25, Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries /; /,
(bil. doi.; MCD moving avg,-4-term)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled of
rabte goods industries
32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries diffusion index (percent)
1962
63
64
ii
§6
67
§8
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
ltd)
OCTOBER 1989
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
DPS, Nov.
P
Wsv.
T
Mar.
P
T
I Consumption and Trade]
480-
57, Manufacturing and trade sales
in 1982 dollars (fail, dot.)
400*
350300250-
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(bil.doi.)
UTrTl X
75, Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: 1977-100)
120-
10080460 3140J20-
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. dpi.)
100-
flul] \
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bil, dot.)
foul
\
140-
z
55, Personal consumption expenditures,
automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dd.)
100-
so-
licicl
58. Index of consumer sentiment1 (1st Q 1966=100)
100*
;/«
1062 03
04
m
£
w^\,.
^
Jg
^V
I/
76
1989
tThls is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
22
OCTOBER 1989
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
Nov. Mar.
P
I Formation of Business Enterprises]
I
F
T
July Nov.
P
11
.^x*' '*^^^
<J~
T
/
-,^^^__^^^
^^'^^^^^^^^H
12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)
IOT =
140-
100-
60-
13. New business incorportions (thousands)
55
§©
45
ao
35
[Business Investment Commitments|
30
21
20 -
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
1982 dollars (bil, dol,)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars
so
4g
27, Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bit, dol.)
40
35-
30 -
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (fail, dol.) |L,L,L|
10 J
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings (mil. sq. ft, of floor space; MCD moving avg.—5-term)1
10070-
1962
63
64
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.
ltd)
OCTOBER 1989
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Ja;i July
P T
fo-y
P
!fey.
T
[Business Investment Commitments—Con. I
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. doL)
C
11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. do*,)
[Business Investment Expenditures|
100. Expenditures in 1982 dolars for new plant and equipment,
Q(an).ratebiLdoL)
61. Expenditures in current (Mars for new plant and
equipment, Q (arm. rate, biL dot,)
—
[IT
69. Machinery and equipment sales ami
business construction expenditures
(am. rate,bildoL) |c,U,L
76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1977=100)
s3
©4
m
S©
87
68
6S
7
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
OCTOBER
1989
ltd*
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Dec.
P
Nov.
P
Nov.
T
[Business Investment Expenditures—Cdn7|
Mar.
T
Jan. July
F
T
July
Nov.
P
T
,
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bii, do!.)
400-
Producers' durable equipment, Q |C,Lg,C
20®150-
[Residential Construction Commitments;and investment|
28. New private housing units started (ann. rate, millions)
2.2-
29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
(index:l967=100)
^fiTTI
1! 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bif. dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
BCI»
OCTOBER
1989
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
| Inventory Investment
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. dd)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (aim. rate, bil. dot.; moving avg,—4-term1)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(ami. rate, bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on
hand and on order (bil. dol,; MCD moving avg.—4-term)
l
Thts is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
26
OCTOBER 1989
BCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P ,
Mar.
T
Jan. July
F T
July
P
Nov.
T
j|inventories on Hand and on Order)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (bjl. doJ.)
[
71, Manufacturing and trade inventories
in current dollars (foil, dd.)
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
(ratio)
1.81.71.61.51.43Q0-
2SO-
78. Manufacturers'inventories, materiais and supplies on hand
, and on order (bil. dd») [t:.:Lg,Lg|
———
220^
180-
140-
100-
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
BCD
OCTOBER 1989
27
L INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Dee. Nov.
P
7
Stow,
P
Mar.
T
.98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials
,/j:
)
(percent; MCP.moving avg.—6'term) [L,L,L[
^il ** "
~__.
-
11 - Iiij iV
H
*fc~- -=
• if
'
V- -
- -•. 1- -
•
-
- -
! 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
•J * \PWK
^T
>\
'.
4
' U«
^ i/^'^jp
_ . i= y {Vj\ //?' •"""
- """^ '
^
••
|L,L,L|
.? ' i
/\'»
* ^ IV V t S & i r ^
.
i/
- b*
"
^" ?
""
,t
"v^i^»W^v I
~" "
T."~" ___{I
UJ
y
_
V^
*4*
+,***
o.
;;*
<].
4D(!«
350-
23. Spot market pnc«, raw industrial material (index: 1967-100)
3011 *
?m«
19, Stock prices, 500 cotnmofi stocks (index; 1941-43-10)
180 «
18, Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
(am, rate, ULikU.) [uJ]
[Profits and Profit Margins]
«^;o *
,tu *
?(SO«
i^«
16. Corporate profits after tax in current doflars, Q
(am.nrt8,biLdoL)
i
®§
69
7@
71
72
73
74
7B
7i
77
7©
79
8©
©1
§g
1
This series Is smoothed by an autoregressive-movlng-avorage filter developed by Statistics Canada.
'Beginning with data for June 1981, this Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for those series are shown on page 69,
28
OCTOBER
1989
BCD
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P
to.
T
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
11 Profits andProfit IVIargins-fCon.
80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. do).)
Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dpi.)
|2. Ratto, corporate domestic profits after tax tojcorpgratedomestic
income, Q (percenf*"
~
---—*• — -
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) |U,L,l|
^
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations,' Q (cents) |L,L,L
7 <3
^wA/ V±XJ
I.
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
sector, Q (index: 1977=100)
r
[Cash Fiows]
35, Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q _.
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q
1962 63
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
OCTOBER
1989
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July My
F T P
Nav.
T
[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share I
63. Unit labor cost, business sector., Q
(index: 1977-100)
68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of jross domestic product
in 1982 dollars, mxifinandal corporations, Q (dollars)
Le.Ln.Le '
~
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1977=100)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,
Q (percent)
1962
S3
64
OB
66
(37
68
7©
71
72
8@
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
30
OCTOBER 1989
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
P
Jan. July
Nov. Mar.
Dec. Nov.
T
P
F
T
T
July
Nov.
T
P
85. Change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCD moving avg,~6-term)
.
;it
|l'H-JI< _...
^
. _.-f_
vft^AJ^^^^
!J-^
,
—«- ^..L^^—— j .
i
i
pr*;' f
•
t^~ r
~^=|--i^^i~^™--^™SSl^^^
jft , ... fei^ ....._ •=* u f
f
51
^
t'-"
—^J^-.
^^^ *=— —
102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
• • • - >«" f^^fe*-,?, -yt=^£^B
;
w4/
-&*U~*
104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) L,L
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml, Q (ratio)
cZc
Velocity of Money]
1962
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
BCII
OCTOBER 1989
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Des.
Now.
Now.
Mar.
T
P
T
P
| Credit Flows |
jjn inly
F
T
July
Now.
P
T
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance compares (ami, rate, bil. doJ.)
142, Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.;
! MCO moving avg.—ftemi) |"[~[~[
113. Net change in consumer instalment credit (ann. rate, bil. dot,;
MOD moving avg,—6-term) f]T[
111. Change in business and consumer credt outstanding
(ann. rate, percent)
110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets, Q (ann, rate, bil. dot)
§4
©§
60
67
68
69
7©
71
Current data for thate series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
32
OCTOBER
1989
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
July
Nov.
P T
P
T
| Credit Difficulties |
*. 1!
14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.inverted scale; MCD moving avg —6-term)
L „ mn
2
1
a 1
JSrf Wife! U> i j tl., SL\[
I
T
]f; *
» Ulf li 111.
T !
!
i) T f
i' f - —~H
39. Percent of consumer installment toans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent—inverted scale)
|LLL|
^^^
2.0-j
Jflf
2.4-1
^^^:i
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale)
-,U,U
-7^
0
-2-
-!<=
0=
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bit, dolj
19S2
©3
S4
SS
6^
SJ
@S
80
81
S2
83
84
35
86
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
!!€!»
OCTOBER
1989
33
CYCLICAL
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
Nov.
F
P
T
July
P
to.
T
I Interest Rates]
15-
119, Federal funds rate (percent)
1312II-
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(percent) '"IC.Lg.Lgl"" " " "
'
116, Yield on new issues of Wgh-gradiKorpoirate bwids
(percent) f
'
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent)
118, Secondary market yields onTHB'^ggesTperce'rit)' "j/
Le.Lg.Lef ZHIII
V/
1962
63
S4
SS
0®
g?
iS
6S
1
Currant data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
OCTOBER
1989
BCII
INDICATORS
B |
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec.
Mov.
P
T
Nov.
P
(War.
T
Jan, July
P I
July
P
Nov.
T
[Interest Rates-^Con.
109. Average prime
67. Bank rates on short-term business Joans. Q (percent)
[Outstanding Debt)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars
(bildol.)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
dollars (bil. dd.)
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. dol.)
Lg,Lg,Li
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income
(percent)
69
§3
70
71
72
73
74
7S
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
BCII
OCTOBER 1989
35
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
P T
950, Eleven leading indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—_)
100-1
951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo, span—, 1-mo. span-*—)
952. Seven lagging indicator components (6-mo, span—^ 1-mo, span—-)
o«i
961, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9*mo. Span—^ 1-mo. span—-)
1601
962. Initial claims for unempJoyment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo. sparu—, 1-mo. span—
QJ
963, Employees on private nonagricutoiral payrolls, 349 industries
(6-mo. span^», 1-mo. span—)
1062
S3
©4
m
m
i?
§S
74
7S
76
77
§7
@g
Current data for theto series are shown on page 74.
36
OCTOBER
1989
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
j
i
jj
.
Nov.
T
!
964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
1
(9-mo, span—, 1-rtk). span—-)
965. Newly approved capital appropriations In 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing industries (4-Q moving avg****
40-
966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. spaa__, 1-mo. span—-)
10© ^
9i67. Spot market pfices,Ii3 raw industrial
(9-mo. SpanJL-, 1-mo. span—)
rniferis
968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 39-82 industnes
(9-mo. span-tL, 1-mo. span—)
960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-0 span)
67
1962
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
BCII
OCTOBER 1989
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
.ten. Jaly
fttov,
T
P
I
July
Km,
P
T
Actual
Anticipated
| Percentrising|
[Percent rising]
970, Expenditures for new plant and
equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures
974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
AAV. ,\
M WM3
§921
(b) Later projections
975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
(c) Early projections
80-
70-
60-
soo
40-
971 New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
90 -
100-
SO-
90-
70-
972, Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
70-
978, Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1
973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
1977 78
7i
80
81
81
83
84
85
iS
S7
S8
I97J
78
79
§©
SI
©t
S3
84
§§
ii
S7
SS 1980
i This Is a eopyrlghtod series used by permission; ft may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on survey* of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for thoso series are shown on page 76,
38
OCTOBER 1989
ItCII
CYCLICAL
C I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Wov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
F T
July
P
Nov.
T
1-month spans —3-month spans —•
[ Percent change at annual rate]
910c. Composite index of eleven leading indicators
30 J
920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators -f
930c. Composite index of seven lagging indicators
47c, Index of industrial production
SOc. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)
usr
V
w
+10
-10
48c. Employee hours in nonagricuftural establishments
51c. Personal income tess transfer payments in 1982 dollars
+ 20+ 100-
V
-10-
=201962
63
64
©i
@©
@7
©@
@9
7©
Jl
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
ItCII
OCTOBER
1989
39
IMPORTANT
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
Jars, July JuSy
P I P
Dee,, Nov.
F
I
(ftov,
T
200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (am. rate, fail, del.)
223. Persona) income in currant dollars
(am. rate,fail,dol.) \
224, Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (arm. rate, fail, dol.)
mm4960-
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, fail, dol,)
•
213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate; bil, dol,) |
mm-
-
Lnsposabie personal income in 198
dollars, Q (aim, rate, bit. dol,)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, thoos. dol.)
LLL rer capita disposable personal income in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
77
78
84
SB
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.
40
OCTOBER 1989
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Dee.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Jan, July
July
Mow.
P T
P
T
| Annual rate, billion dollars (current))
Personal consumption expenditures—
1962
6:
Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81
ItCII
OCTOBER
1989
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMY
A I
_
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Jan. July My
F T P
feu,
T
[Annual rate, bion dolars (current) |
Gross private domestic investment—
240. Total, Q —/
245. Change in business inventories, Q
Annual rate, bion dolars (1982)|
30, Change in business inventories, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
42
OCTOBER 1989
ltd)
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. 1%
F
T
Juiy
Nov.
P
T
| Annual rate, billion dollars (current)]
iZOO-i
Government purchases of goods and services-
noo1000900 «
800700-
500 -
300-
200-
266, State and local
government, Q
I Annual rate, billion doUars (1982)|
1000T
267. State and local government, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
BCII
OCTOBER 1989
43
IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
IA I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Dee. Nov.
Annual rate, bion doiars (current)!
659 -
goo -
303 4SO400-
a^fl -
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
253, Imports of goods and services, 0
100-
250, Net exports of goods and services, Q
!)()
-100-1SO-
Annual rate, btton dollars (1982))
257. Imports of goods and services, Q
256. Exports of goods and services, Q
255, Net exports of goods and services, Q
1962
S3
S4
68
6S
67
6i
69
70
72
73
Current data for those series are shown on page 82.
44
OCTOBER 1989
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT— Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Jan. jy!y
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, bion dollars (current) [
220. National income, Q
Compensation of employees, Q
286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital Cbnsumption adjustments, Q J" ~
288. Net interest, Q
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments^
284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, 0
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
BCD OCTOBER 1989
45
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
Annual rate, bion doiars (current)
49-
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
3
S4
m
m
©J
SS
it
1
as
m
BJ
ss
Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.
46
OCTOBER 1989
KCII
OTHER
A I
!
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Dec. Nov.
P
T
I
| Percent of GNRI
!.
I
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Wov.
T
||
235, Personal consumption expenditures, Q
69 J
268. State and local government purchases
j
qf goods andjervices^
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
10-
248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q
249, Residential fixed investment, 0
247. Change in business inventories, 0
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q
[Percent of National Income]
64. Compensation of employees, Q
70-
287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-
283, Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
289. Net interest, Q
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1962 63
64
©5
i©
<S>7
5-
0-
68
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
KCI»
OCTOBER 1989
47
OTHER IMPORTANT
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart 61. Price Movements
J3J, ,"j;!y
P
I
My
Nov.
P
I
P
I Index: 1982-1001
T
P
310c. Implicit price deflator for poss I Percent change at annual rate |
<~— national product (1 Qipn)
310. Implicft price dflftetor for gr
national product,
_311c. Fixed-weighted price Index, gross domestic business product
"" (1-Qspan)
"°'f
^ICM"
311. Fixtd-wefcWed price index,
gross domestic 1
Producer price indexes—
| 6-month spans]
330c, All commodities
Producer price indexes—
330. All e
335c. Industrial commodities
331c. Crude materials for
further processing
335, Industrial commodities
332c, Intermediate materiais, supplies, and components
331. Crude material for further processing
~7\ ^
~
Iwtermeilate materials
dna componenis
V-2L
333c. C^jttal equipment
334, Finished consumer foods
334c. Finished consumer goods
1977 78
If
S©
ii
it
S3
84 SB
83
§4
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84,85, and 86.
OCTOBER 1989
BCII
B
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued
Dec.
Wov.
P
T
Jan, July
P I
Jufy
P
Nov.
T
Consumer price indexes—
120110100-
70-
320. AJj urban consumers^
69-
40-
320c. All urban consumers (6-month span)
| Percent change at-annual rate]
+20-
322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month spar)
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
I index: 1977
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisor^
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
V
v
,
. t;.
_ -ET^T; ^a,
^ -.
10080 -
L Average hourly earnings of production or
on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)
346. Real average hourly compensation, ali employees,
norttarm business sector, Q v
"*
•"^— — • •
345. Average hourly compensation, all
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)
1962 63
64
80
SI
82
33
34
85
86
B7
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
,
lt€l»
AW
OCTOBER 1989
49
IMPORTANT IE(
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart 62. Wages and Productivity—Continued
tfei:..
ikil*
1—2^—2!LJ change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1—
n c ange
I
l
340c, Current-dollar earnings
aj
,-
-H>-. -. .r
, * J * /; . in>^lW
Change in average hourly compensation, aJI employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
4
345c. Current-dollar compensation
4 Jfe
4-ouarter spans
-A,,- ,= •. - * £pS*\~^ j
4-10
—I-quarler spans (ann. rate)
346c. Real compensation
A
,
1-quarter spans (ann. rate)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—
343. Average first-year changes, Q (arm, rate)
X
349. Average changes over life of
contract; Q (ann. rate)
I index: 1977 ^1001
| Productivity |
358, Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
X
370. Output per hour, all persons,
btmncss sector, Q
'
"
370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q
^ ^
^ ,
^-*• 1-quarterspans (arm,rate)
?
1
v
/ \ " . . . . . - . , , .^.--.-.
nZ^vNtA JU« J-W*
^W ! > yM '
Z±li!^i^Vtf^
^
^
"
63
64
v
CIB a© <sj ©i m y©
^51 .
iX^ - = / i = » -
A
| Percent change |
/* A
jj\
45
.\pr -,
'/ V
,.
''
..
_^
__
..
'
._ ._
y'
__
„„
,
"4-quarter
4-quarte spans
„,_.
__
_ ....
1
Adjusted for overtime (tn manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
50
OCTOBER 1989
BCD
15 O^raiTTANT ECONOMIC fWSUflEi
C I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Dec.
P
Stov.
T
Jan. July
T
July
P
Nov.
T
441. Civilian labor force (millions)
442. Civilian employment (millions)
Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)—
^ajes 2Q years an(j over
453, Both sexes 16-19 years of age
452, Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (millions)—
37. Persons unemployed
445. Females 20 years and over
444, Males 20 years —
and over
446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic
reasons (millions)
ItCII OCTOBER
1989
51
MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
Be:;, Nav.
P
T
Mar."
T
Now.
P
[Annual rate, bion doiars (current)
502, Federal Government qpmfihirts, Q
501. Federal Government receipts, Q
500. Fed0ni Government surplus or deficit, Q
$11, State and local government receipts, Q
511 State and local government expenditures, Q
510. State and (oca) government surplus or deficit, Q
1962
S3
©$
©^
©§
©?
§§
72
73
74
7B
76
Current dotn fer those series ore shown on page 90.
52
OCTOBER 1989
KCII
D!
I £) I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Dec.
P
Wov.
T
Jan. July
P
I
July
Hw.
P
T
[Advance Measures of Defense Activity
~£
3©-
gross obligations incurred
ng avg.—6-term)
||
Defense Department prime contract awards
(bil. dei; MCD moving avg.—6-term
12®-
543, Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil, dol)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
71
72
73
74
75
76
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
BCD OCTOBER 1989
53
OTHER IMPORTANT
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Now.
P
Mar,.
T
|Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity!
557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment
559. Manufacturers inventories, defense products
(bil. doi.)
561, Manufacturers' unfilled orders,
defense products (bil. do).)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military
assistance (bil. doi.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. doi.)
1962
63
64
6S
@6
67
Si
Current data for those series ore shown on page 91.
54
OCTOBER 1989
BCD
*3T iC©W©K ME
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Dec.
P
nw.
T
Nov.
P
Mar,
T
Jan. July
July
Nov.
P T
P
T
[Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con.|
570. Employment, defense products industries (millions)
2.01.81.61.41,21.0-
Defense Department personnel (millions)—
3.53.0-
577. Military personnel on active duty
2.52.0-
1.5-
578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment j
1.0-
400350300-
[National Defense Purchases|
250200-
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
150-
100-
565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)
19S2
®3
®4
®S
®S
§7
©@
88
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
KCII
OCTOBER
1989
55
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart El. Merchandise Trade
Im, My Inly
F T P
te.
T
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (to!, dd)
-A*
$04. Exports of domestic ajncuttural products
(fail, dd,)
^-606. Exports of nonelectrical midiinery (ML <W.)
612. General imports (bil doi.)
614. Imports of petroleum arid petroleum
products (bil. dd)
bib. imports of automootm and parts mi dol.)
77
78
7S
S0
81
82
S3
§4
§§
Current data for these series are shown on page 92.
56
OCTOBER 1989
KCII
©TIM I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Wov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
|| Annual rate, bion dollars |
W//A Excess of receipts
[;77:.1 Excess of payments
7501
650§5i450-
Goods and services-
aao667. Balance on goods and services, Q
25Q-
150-
622, Balance on merchandise trade, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
BCD OCTOBER
1989
57
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production
lm. July
P
I
July
Kov.
P
I
Iffiex: 1977=1001
Industrial production—
[index: 1977=100|
Industrial production—
722, United Kingdom
110-
Hi! -
723. Canada
130 -
110-
v^-*^
;
©
yg)
§©
ill
§2
§3
Current data for these series are shown on page 94,
58
OCTOBER
1989
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Jan. July
P
July
Nov.
P
T
T
Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jan. July
F
T
July
Nov.
P
T
I Percent change at annual rate
Consumer prices—
1977 78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
1977
78
79
80
81
82
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.
OCTOBER 1989
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Q COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
1987
910. Index of
eleven leading
indicators (series
1,5,8,19,20,
29, 32, 83, 92,
99, 106)
920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
930. Index of
seven lagging
indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109, 120)
940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index l
(1982=100)
(1982 = 100)
(1982-100)
(1982=100)
2
2
2
Revised
Revised
Revised
Revised
Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29) l
915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)
916, Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)
917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
HI)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
108.9
(NA)
104.4
104.6
105.3
119.3
120.8
121.5
148.9
147.0
145.4
121.3
121.3
122.9
144.5
144.1
145.6
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
2
January , . . ,
February
March
136.8
137.6
138.1
119.3
121.0
121.0
112.1
110.9
110.7
106.4
109.1
109.3
April
May
June
,,.
138.3
139.2
140.6
121.1
121.2
121.5
110.7
110.8
111.0
109.4
109,4
109.5
105,3
106.0
106,7
July
August
September ,
142.0
143.3
142.9
122.4
123.0
123.1
110.8
110.7
111.7
110.5
111.1
110.2
107.1
106.4
106.6
October , , . . . . , . .
November
December . . . . . . .
142.3
140.3
139.7
124.9
124.6
126.1
111.8
112.1
111.8
111.7
111.2
112.8
107.2
107,4
H>108.2
121.7
118,6
118.3
147.1
146.8
146.6
January
February . . , . . . , .
March
....
139,3
141.0
141.4
125.2
126.0
126.7
113.4
113.9
114.3
110.4
110.6
110.8
107.1
106,7
106,5
119.0
119,5
119.9
146.9
147.9
149.0
April
May
June
142.0
141.8
144.0
126.9
127.2
128.2
114.6
114.5
114.8
110.7
111.1
111.7
105.5
105,6
105.9
119.5
118.9
120.0
July
August
September
143.0
144.1
143.7
128.6
129.0
129.0
114.5
115.1
115.2
112.3
112.1
112,0
105.5
105.5
105.6
119.9
119.5
(NA)
October ,
November . ,
December . .
144.0
144.1
145.1
130.4
130.3
131.1
115.0
116.4
116.8
113.4
111.9
112.2
105.1
104.9
105.6
0)146.0
145.6
144.7
131.8
132.0
132.0
118.1
119.3
120.1
111.6
110.6
109.9
(NA)
145.8
144,2
144.0
132.8
132.5
132.8
124.2
i>126.0
124.7
144.5
144.2
145.4
1988
D151.7
150,7
151.1
150,3
150.1
147.4
146.9
146.6
(NA)
1989
January
February . . . . . . . .
March
...
April
May
June
,
July
August . . .
September . . . . . . .
144.0
144.7
P145.0
132.6
133.9
[H) 133.9
3
119.3
120.3
[H)120.5
111.3
110.1
110.2
120.0
120.3
"119.7
110.5
111.3
pill, 9
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§>, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |H): Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pates 10 and 11.
'These series reached high values before 1987: series 940 (116.1) in January 1984 and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
S
0xeludes series 57, for which data are not available.
''Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
60
OCTOBER 1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L, L,L
L, C, L
I.C.L
1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing
(Hours)
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
L, Lg, U
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1
(Hours)
(Thous.)
L, Lg, U
60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
U,C,C
46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)
(1967-100)
1987
January . . .
February . .
March
40 9
41 1
41 0
3.6
3 6
3.7
355
350
338
0.512
0.531
0.572
136
140
150
187 54
188 59
188 56
April
May
June
40.6
41.0
329
325
325
0.583
0.601
0.614
149
153
152
187.66
189.72
189.97
....
41 0
3.5
3.8
3 7
July
, .
August
September .
41 0
41 1
40 6
3 8
3 8
3 7
321
299
293
0 626
0 663
0 661
153
161
158
190.41
191.22
188.29
October
November
December
41.2
41.2
41.1
3.9
3.9
3.8
294
300
311
0.669
0.682
0.662
162
[H>162
155
192.23
192.77
192.93
January . .
February . .
March
41 1
41 0
41.0
3 9
3 7
3.8
348
314
303
0.652
0.673
0.691
153
156
158
193.12
194.48
194.35
April
May
June
41.2
41.1
41.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
299
305
294
0.701
0.700
0.711
157
160
156
195.81
195.44
196.43
July
August
September
41 1
41 0
41.1
3 9
3 9
3.9
321
298
290
0.714
0.700
0.688
159
160
153
197.24
196.77
197.53
October
November
December
41.2
41.2
41.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
E>290
297
301
E>0.735
0.716
0.731
161
158
161
198.76
198.14
199.16
41.1
41.1
3.9
3 9
E>4-0
296
303
318
0.691
0 729
0 733
156
155
151
200.31
200.32
200.33
3.9
3.8
3.8
299
312
328
0.723
0 707
0.667
159
147
202.10
9nn AR
201.37
3.9
338
316
320
0.687
rO.681
pO.660
150
r!47
p!46
|H>r202.54
r201.59
p202.48
1988
1989
January
February
March
..
41 0
April
May
June
E>41.3
41.0
41.0
41.0
40.9
July
August
September
p41.0
r3.7
p3.8
1 R?
October . . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
OCTOBER
1989
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment— Continued
u,c,c
Timing Class
42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities
Year
and
month
{Thous.)
C,C,C
41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(Thous.)
L,C,U
40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)
Comprehensive Unemployment
U, Lg, U
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age
(Percent)
L, Lg, U
37. Number of
persons unemployed
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
Lg, U, Lg
43. Unemployment rate
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
(Weeks)
Lg, Lg, Lg
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1987
107 823
108,066
108,238
100,798
101,015
101,254
24,473
24,532
24,551
60.28
60.39
60.43
7,904
7,848
7,804
6.6
6.6
6.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
14.9
14.5
15.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
April
May
June
108 566
109 180
109 06^
101,582
101 777
101 956
24 573
24 617
24 616
60 56
60 90
60 72
7 605
7 578
7 360
6.4
6.3
6.2
2 5
2 4
2 4
15,0
14.8
14.9
1.8
1.7
1,7
July
August
September
109 377
109 890
109,704
102 293
102 525
102,683
24 701
24 759
24,794
60 83
61 00
60.88
7 271
7 226
7,112
6 1
6 0
5.9
2 3
2 3
2.2
14 2
14 3
14.2
16
16
1.6
October
November
December
109,998
110,320
110,528
103,213
103,470
103,791
24,896
24,966
25 021
61.01
61.09
61.19
7,204
7,067
6,961
6,0
5.9
5.8
2.1
2.1
2.E
14.0
14.1
14.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
1 1 n 7QQ
24 935
25 033
25,098
fil ?Q
fil ^fi
110,948
103 970
104 414
104,682
61.24
6 QRO
6 QQ?
6,807
5 8
5 7
5,6
2 3
2 2
2.2
14 2
14 1
13.8
1 4
1 4
1.4
111 473
111 293
111 880
104,901
105,091
105 561
25 161
25 179
25 265
61 49
61 31
61 58
6 668
6 800
6 523
5.5
5.6
5 4
2 1
2 1
2 1
13.5
13.8
13 2
13
1 3
1 3
111 974
112 061
112 194
105 768
105 954
106 207
25 323
25 303
25 313
61 54
61 60
61 64
6 624
6 797
6 614
5 4
5 6
5 4
2 1
2 1
2 0
13 5
13 5
13 5
1 3
1 3
1 3
112 335
106 475
6 518
5 3
January ,
February
March
....
1988
January
February ,
March
...,
...
April
May
June
July
August .
September
....
October
November
December . . . . . . . .
m
n?^
ei DC
6
CC-3
C A
6,554
5.3
2 0
2 0
2.0
13 4
1? fi
12.8
1 9
61.83
25,626
25,629
25,646
62.13
62.16
62.27
6,716
6,328
E>6,128
5.4
5.1
i>5. 0
2.0
2,1
2.1
12.7
12.1
12.4
1.2
1.1
1.1
108,101
108 310
108 607
25,671
oc £70
62.22
62 ? 2
rn\
en .35
ojJH/Di
6,546
6 395
5.3
5 2
2.1
G)2 0
2 1
12.7
11 8
r!08 767
r!08 855
[H)pl09,064
r25,669
[H)r25,696
p25,588
1fl£ A9A
107,097
25 384
pc Acn
25,513
61 69
?flQ
112,816
113,411
113,630
113,930
107,442
107,711
107,888
114,009
114,102
|H) 114, 445
114,240
114 290
114,199
m
1 3
1.2
1989
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August . . , . . . .
September
9 jr C/l O
62 26
62.28
62.16
6
CC-I
6 497
6 421
6,584
C
-5
5 2
5 2
5.3
2 2
2 1
2.1
[u\ 11 , 11
Urj/ii
12 0
11 3
11.4
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
M)ata exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
62
OCTOBER 1989
1,2
11
fuN
W 1i .no
1 2
1 i
1.1
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^9 PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and Income
C,C,C
50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars
C,C,C
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
52. Constant
(1982) dollars
51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Personal income
223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C,C,C
C.C.C
53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C,C,C
47. Index of
industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
C.C.C
73, Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
(1977 = 100)
C, L,l
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(1977 = 100)
crctc
49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1987
January
February
March
3,78316
3,640.8
3,680.2
3,699.8
3,109.1
3,129.4
3,132.8
2,650.6
2,670.7
2,675,2
542.4
541.6
544.6
126.2
127.1
127.4
129.3
130.8
131.5
132.7
132.9
133.7
l,622!e
April
May
June
3,823!5
3,718.5
3,734.1
3,745.4
3,132.7
3,132.6
3,129.0
2,674.8
2,670.5
2,670,9
538.5
540.3
540.4
127.4
128.2
129.1
130.9
131.4
132.0
134.6
135.7
136.9
I,645i9
July
August
September
3,872!s
3,770.5
3,798.7
3,817.4
3,144.7
3,152.4
3,152.3
2,685.9
2,695.7
2,696,5
541.3
544.3
547.0
130.6
131.2
131.0
133.5
133.8
133.7
138,5
138.8
138.6
l,679!i
October
November
December
3,935!6
3,894.3
3,886.8
3,944.9
3,205.2
3,188.5
3,236.2
2,748.8
2,733.2
2,779.3
549.4
551.8
552.1
132.5
133.2
133.9
136.8
136,7
137.3
138.1
139.6
141.3
1,728!5
January
February
March
3,974!8
3,921.9
3,944.2
3,979.5
3,209.4
3,225.0
3,240.6
2,741.2
2,755.9
2,767.1
551.3
553.9
561.5
134.4
134.4
134.7
137.9
138.4
138,8
141.4
141.1
141.7
1,746!?
April
May
June
4,0l6!7
4,007.1
4,023.3
4,049.4
3,244.6
3,244.6
3,260.4
2,773.4
2,776.2
2,791.2
558.8
558.0
561.5
135.4
136.1
136.5
139.7
141.5
141.7
142.3
142.1
142.6
1,76?!9
July
August
September
4,042!7
4,079.8
4,094.2
4,118.6
3,271.7
3,275.4
3,276.5
2,802.0
2,805.0
2,808.2
562.4
560.9
562.8
138.0
138.5
138.6
142.9
143.2
143.8
144.6
145.1
145.3
I,782i3
October
November
December
4,069!i
4,180.4
4,168.9
4,206.3
3,312.5
3,298.2
3,314.7
2,843.3
2,828.6
2,845.3
569.0
565.5
563.9
139.4
139.9
140.4
144.6
145.2
145.7
146.3
146.7
147.1
l,789!i
January
February
March
4,106!8
4,273.1
4,319.5
4,360.7
3,346.2
3,377.2
3,390.9
2,868.0
2,897.0
2,905.5
566.1
566.7
E>572.3
140.8
140.5
140.7
146.2
145.9
145.8
148,5
148.1
148.6
1,823*.2
April
May
June
4,132'.5
4,387.1
4,396.3
4,417.5
3,390.3
3,384.4
3,398.1
2,908.2
2,902.8
2,912.8
566.4
563.4
565.3
141.7
141.6
r!42.0
146.9
147.1
r!47.4
149.6
149.5
r!50.5
1,843 '.9
[H>p4,158!i
r4,443.8
r4,456.4
{H>p4,469.2
r3,407.8
r3, 420.1
E>p3, 422.1
r2,922.7
r2,932.4
E>p2,933.2
r566.3
r569.7
p568.5
142.0
B>142.4
p!42.3
r!47.0
E>rl47.6
p!46.9
150.9
r!51.1
i>pl51.3
E>pl,857!6
1988
1989
July
August
September . . . . . . .
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
OCTOBER 1989
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
E
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process , . , , . . , ,
PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Continued
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class . . . . . .
L.C.U
82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing
Year
and
month
Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Orders and Deliveries
i,c r u
84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials
1, L,l
Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Percent)
(Percent)
L.L.L
(Bil. dol.)
7. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
1,1,1
1,1,1
8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
L, U, U
96. Manufacturers1 unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
L, L, L
32. Vendor
performance—
slower deliveries
diffusion indexl
(Percent)
1987
January
February . . . . . . . .
March
79,6
80.0
80.3
78.7
78.7
78.7
97.34
102.40
104.78
89.79
94.46
96.40
79.68
84.09
84.78
-3,28
-1.26
1.19
367.42
366.16
367.35
51.5
51.2
51.9
April
May , .
June
79.1
79.3
79.8
107.64
107.92
108.77
98.93
99.01
99.70
83-. 76
....
80.2
80.4
80.8
83.48
85,66
4.55
5.26
4.24
371.90
377.16
381.40
52.8
54,0
56.8
July
....
August
September . . . . . . .
81.5
81.5
81,3
80.6
81.1
81.2
109.94
106.99
109.68
100.40
97.44
99.34
84.02
83.84
85,98
6.04
2.58
1.30
387.44
390.02
391.32
58.9
60.3
61.5
October
November
December . . . . . . .
82.0
82.2
82.6
82.1
82.9
83.6
112.02
111.96
113.19
101.28
100.96
101.61
86.81
85.89
86.86
3.71
3.67
2,01
395.04
398.71
400.72
62.2
64.9
62.7
January . . . . . . . . .
February . .
March . . . . . . . .
82,7
82.6
82,7
83.0
82.3
82.4
113,07
114.16
113.06
100.86
101.56
100.41
83.26
85.42
85.34
3.94
4.33
0.32
404.66
408.99
409.31
62.4
61.3
56.9
April
May . . . . . . . . . . .
June
82.9
83.3
83.3
82.9
83.0
83.2
116.84
115.37
125.44
103.39
101.74
110.23
85.73
87.82
87,78
4.32
0.62
8.92
413.62
414.24
423.16
56.6
65.6
July
August
September
84.0
84,0
84.0
84.4
84.3
84.1
116.11
122.81
119,32
101.67
107.25
103.58
85.15
87.58
87.98
2.99
4.94
1.29
426.15
431.09
432.38
59.0
57.7
55,1
October
November
December . . . . . . .
84.3
84.4
84,4
84.7
84.9
122.79
123.04
|H>132.15
106.50
106.25
|H>113.63
87.86
89.81
[H>92.68
4.35
3.16
7.97
436.73
439.90
447.87
54.6
61.6
52.6
84.3
84.1
84.6
84.0
83,7
128.48
124.11
125.38
109.81
105,71
106.61
90.76
89.02
86.32
4.90
3.18
4.94
452.77
455.95
460,90
54.0
53.3
51.2
84.5
84.3
84.2
83.8
r84.4
rS3.6
129.37
123.52
125.14
110.01
r!04.68
105.87
89.69
r87.82
86.93
6.04
0.56
3.42
466.94
467.50
470.92
53.2
49.3
47.5
84.1
r83 . 7
r83.8
p83.4
r!22.03
r!26.82
p!26.68
r!03.24
r!07.12
p!06.27
r82.90
r90,70
p87.15
r475.83
r474.27
[H^p476.15
46.9
44.9
43.8
....
1988
[8)85.1
59. 2
1989
January
February
March
(H}84.7
,
April
May
June
July
August
September
,
r84.1
p83,7
r4.92
r-1.56
pi. 88
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
1
Thesc series reached high values before 1987: series 25 (9.31) in March 1984 and scries 32 (67.5) in November 1983.
64
OCTOBER 1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
C.C.C
C,C,C
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol)
C, L, C
75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods
(1977 = 100)
u, L; u
C, L, U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
0
Q| CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued
59. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
L,C,C
U, L
L, L,L
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
58. Index of
consumer
sentiment 1 2
©
12. Index of
net business
formation
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(IstQ
1966 = 100)
(1967-100)
1,1, 1
13. Number of
new business
incorporations 1
(Number)
1987
January
February
March
424,210
441,092
441,073
419,538
433,469
431,581
125.5
126.4
126.7
117Q,819
124,126
124,455
109,294
114,507
114,179
119!s
90.4
90.2
90.8
118.1
120.5
122.0
55,348
58,495
60,248
April
May
June
442,281
445,174
448,931
431,209
432,439
433,700
125.5
127.3
127.2
125,353
125,520
127,263
114,478
114,317
115,274
129*3
92.8
91.1
91.5
120.7
119.8
120.3
57,471
56,226
57,613
July
August
September
450,906
455,157
460,280
434,938
437,381
440,943
128.9
129.4
127.7
128,110
130,390
129,427
115,937
117,574
116,391
145.'8
93.7
94.4
93.6
120.4
121.5
122.8
57,330
57,650
57,568
October .
November
December
460,066
459,261
462,059
439,739
437,546
439,273
129.0
129.4
129.8
128,235
128,541
129,870
115,112
115,180
116,267
132!6
89.3
83.1
86.8
121.8
122,8
123.2
55,504
56,681
55,226
January
February
March
462,173
466,052
474,260
439,102
442,538
448,078
131.2
131.3
131.2
130,364
131,846
133,797
116,709
118,036
119,249
143! 6
90.8
91.6
94.6
124.0
124.1
125.4
56,108
56,475
60,656
April
May
June
475,218
478,467
486,226
446,585
447,726
451,956
131.9
132.7
133.0
133,077
134,003
135,060
118,081
118,482
119,311
145^7
91.2
94.8
94.7
122.7
124.3
123.7
54,670
58,046
55,620
July
August
September
486,289
r491,892
r492,442
449,198
r452,694
r450,929
134.2
135.0
134.8
135,741
r!35,800
r!35,715
119,490
rl!9,227
rl!8,632
14CK9
93.4
97.4
97.3
123.3
124.5
124.2
r56,915
59,472
55,778
October
November
December
498,846
501,400
506,186
455,745
456,937
459,688
136.4
136.8
138.2
137,842
139,529
139,189
120,071
121,435
120,719
146! 6
94.1
93.0
91.9
124.6
123.2
125.5
56,557
54,530
58,516
January
February
March
511,881
507,328
507,555
458,846
454,219
451,603
138.5
138.7
138.4
140,040
139,428
139,516
120,724
120,300
119,756
142!7
97.9
95.4
94.3
r!25.5
r!25.9
E>rl28.0
58,499
58,724
60,133
April
May
June
517,745
518,088
515,695
458,774
457,465
456,223
139.5
139.2
H>rl39.a
141,413
142,543
142,500
120,351
120,902
120,865
144 .'5
91.5
90.7
90.6
r!25.0
r!25.6
r!25.9
55,245
57,738
r57,536
r511,144
E>p526,789
(NA)
r451,795
Dp466,57?.
(NA)
138.9
r!39.3
p!39.5
r!43,55S
r!44,511
E>Pl45,212
r!21,657
r!23,093
H>pl23,480
®p!54.7
92.0
89.6
95.8
r!24.4
r!22.6
p!22.6
p54,519
(NA)
1988
•
1989
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23.
^hese series reached high values before 1987: series 58 (101.0) in March 1984 and series 13 (65,318) in December 1986.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's
Survey Research Center.
OCTOBER 1989
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
Minor Economic
Process . .
Business Investment Commitments
Timing Class . , . , , .
L, 1,1
I, I, I
Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month
10. Current
dollars
(Bit. dol.)
20. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
U,L
L.L.L
Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
U, Lg, U
UC.U
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1 2
27. Constant
(1982) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space 3
(Millions)
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
C, lg, Lg
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol,)
1987
January
February
March . .
31.78
31.99
31.99
35.45
36.31
36.21
27.20
27.28
26.88
31.40
32.18
31.73
82.42
73.52
77.97
7.66
6,83
7.24
zi!ii
April
May .
Jung
33.63
34.90
35.47
38.58
39.88
40.28
28.73
30.63
29.75
34.29
36.16
35.30
79.93
78.82
83.17
7.43
7.32
7.73
32!26
July
August . . . . . . . . .
September , , , , , , .
37.49
35.01
34.52
42.82
40.28
40.00
32.28
29.85
29.39
38.32
35.82
35.57
83.00
83.56
84.70
7,71
7,76
7,87
29^56
October
November
December
36.60
35.44
38.27
41.11
40.29
42.96
30.22
30.66
33.03
36.45
36.19
38.44
82.21
76.89
81,64
7.64
7.14
7.58
35^91
38.31
39.54
36.82
43.68
44.64
41.78
33,87
33,82
31.92
39.89
39.79
37.65
77.27
91.15
75,85
7.18
8.47
7.05
30^85
38.95
36.29
40.68
44.85
41.88
46.20
33.75
31.52
35.46
40.45
37.85
41.78
71.02
71.69
75.36
6.60
6,66
7.00
4o!69
41.18
44,39
r39.82
46,51
49.91
r44.12
36.21
38.81
34.86
42.35
45.25
39.99
79.51
75.38
73.37
7.39
7.00
6.82
40^38
38.65
39.98
43.67
43.43
44.53
47.97
34.62
35.82
39.43
40il6
41.07
44.44
70.06
69.90
78.53
6.51
6.49
7.30
45 ',28
January
February . , . , . . . .
March
45.03
41.48
42.64
49.10
44.81
47.67
40.35
37.19
38.14
45.24
41,31
44.02
78.61
70.87
71.37
7,30
6.58
6.63
April
May
June
44.55
41.90
44.07
r48.87
r46.30
r48.00
40.39
37.29
39.15
45,48
42.54
43.98
69.66
75.44
78.18
6.47
7.01
7.26
[H)r45.99
r41.71
p40.42
[HV50.01
' r47.00
p45.81
E>r41.44
r37.16
p35.08
Dr46.30
r43.33
p41.50
77.79
66.89
85.52
7.23
6.21
7.94
69!i7
74! 64
74! 55
78!06
1988
January
February .
March
,.
April
May . . ,
June
July
August
September
October
November . . . . . . .
December
78!H
87^46
9U57
100.* 20
1989
July
August
September
i)p5o;6i
i>pll4^5
(NAJ
(NA)
October
November
December . . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, H.W. Dodge Division. 2Series 9 reached its high value (93.19 square feet and 8.66 square meters) in September 198S. -^Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
OCTOBER
1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^f FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
C, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, Lg, Lg
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, Lg, U
76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment
(1977 = 100)
C, Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, C
28. New private housing
units started 1
Gross private nonresidential
-fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
87. Structures 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L,L,L
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permitsl
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967-100)
L,U
89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1987
January
February
March
377!o9
380 '.62
381.31
391.14
387.97
138.6
141.7
141.9
430.9
12o!l
3l6'.7
1,840
1,787
1,715
134.8
134.7
135.9
197.' 3
April
May
June
380 ! 08
383!55
394.77
393.41
402.62
142.1
141.7
144.2
445 '.6
117'.7
32?! 9
1,622
1,607
1,583
127.7
119.6
121.4
197*.8
July
August
September
393'.05
40l'.61
412.10
410.61
424.92
145.6
145.6
146.3
472^8
125*.5
347 '.3
1,592
1,587
1,685
120.9
120.5
120.7
192!l
October
November
December
403!%
41K07
416.91
417.04
423.21
148.7
148.3
149.8
472.7
125.7
347 !o
1,535
1,659
1,391
115.4
116.2
107.3
191.'9
January
February
March
413'.34
417.'63
432.80
432.06
438.93
151.2
152.4
153.3
483.' 6
IZl'.B
sei.'s
1,391
1,511
1,528
100.8
115.2
119.6
189 .'l
April
May
June
427 '.54
43K35
445.06
454.15
456.32
154.6
156.9
158.1
497!8
122.5
37b\3
1,576
1,392
1,463
114.1
115.5
118.4
194.'2
July
August
September
435!61
436! 04
458.73
463.23
463.95
159.3
160.2
160.8
501.*6
123^6
378 '. 6
1,478
1,459
1,463
113.6
116.9
114.2
195il
October
November
December
442 !li
433*.51
463.94
462.23
465.80
160.2
161.2
162.6
492.7
121A
37K3
1,532
1,567
1,577
121.7
120.3
121.1
198 '.1
459^47
451*. 35
475.20
475.31
485.30
163.8
165.0
166. 3
soi'.o
12l".i
379".9
1,678
1,465
1,409
118.5
111.9
r487.01
r487.06
r490.84
167.8
169.1
r!69.6
511.4
118.1
393.2
1,343
1,308
1,406
106.4
107.4
104.3
189.' 3
r484 . 04
fj)p508.20
168.9
[H>169.9
p!69.8
E>p518*.6
piisis
(H>p398'.2
rl,420
rl,332
pi, 263
102.2
105.9
105.2
p!87!6
.
1988
1989
January
February
March
April
May
June
[H>470'.86
July
August
September
a48l!24
October .
November
December
a483.*04
E> 463! 10
a47l!ii
(NA)
195*.6
98.1
a470.*25
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
'These series reached high values before 1987: series 87 (151.4) in 2d Q 1985, series 28 (2,260) and series 29 (158.5) in February 1984,
and series 89 (200.3) in 4th Q 1986.
OCTOBER 1989
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
|U INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Inventories on Hand and on Order
Inventory Investment
Timing Class
l,l,l
30, Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollarsl
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1,1, 1
1,1,1
36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars 1
Smoothed 2
Actual
(Ann. rate,
btl. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
btl. dol.)
31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L,U
38. Change in
mfrs.1 inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars
(Bil. doi.)
70. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars1
L, Lg, Lg
78. Mfrs.(
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
1987
16.15
-2.36
1,92
64.1
21.3
35.1
-1.06
-0.59
32.38
0.48
9.83
liia
14.81
47.64
35.65
16.59
23.99
32,16
e!a
31.80
-3.77
44.10
35.53
29.80
22.64
56.*6
75.32
41.99
51.71
31.30
46.18
55.07
3,24
34^3
37.39
1.82
659.20
660.97
663.90
644.61
644.61
645.70
103.41
103.02
103,23
1.54
1.49
1.50
236.33
235.74
237.56
26.7
69.3
34.0
2.82
1.09
2.71
666.12
671.89
674.73
645.85
648.83
649.82
102.94
103.23
102,57
1.50
1.50
1.50
240.38
241.47
244.17
32.7
44.9
2.76
1.75
2.20
677.45
677.78
681.52
651.04
649.93
652.18
103.84
104.66
104.04
1.50
1.49
1.48
246.94
248.68
250.88
90.8
64.5
75.5
2.18
1.02
1.04
689.09
694.47
700.76
657.41
660.63
664.72
105.04
105.86
106.82
1.50
1.51
1.51
253.06
254.08
258.11
44.33
31.55
22.94
39.3
46.2
36.6
3.81
0.25
1.32
704.03
707.89
710.94
666.50
669.06
670.20
107,42
108.16
108.08
1.52
1.51
1.50
258.92
259.18
260.49
22.64
22.33
15.38
13.19
13.68
43.8
47.0
72.1
2.52
2.83
2.21
714,59
718.51
724.52
671.42
673.13
675.32
108.09
108.43
109.02
1.50
1.50
1,49
263.01
265.83
268.04
-8.81
39.50
35.16
14.34
14.86
19.81
1.43
ie»r91,5
r79.7
729,79
r?37.41
744.05
674.74
678.75
681.92
109.82
110.78
111.62
1.50
1.50
1.51
269.47
273.45
275.93
IB.3
-17.99
23,03
59,40
20.42
16.14
17.44
-6.1
38.5
83.5
-0.42
-0.84
743.54
746.76
753.72
681.28
683.35
687.97
112.07
112.69
113,93
1.49
1.50
1.50
277.82
277.41
276.56
January
February
March
24.*S
18.66
-6.58
-20.08
27.59
28.76
10.58
73.0
39.0
29.4
1.74
0,31
1.61
759.80
763.05
765.50
691.10
690.75
690,50
115.38
115.66
115.36
1.51
1,52
1.53
278,30
278.61
280.22
April
May
June
r4.37
rl9.S6
-4.83
r-5.18
T3.26
70.0
81.0
32.5
0.14
19ii
-0.77
-0.12
771.34
778,09
780.80
691.15
693.00
694.54
115.92
117.05
117.85
1.51
1.51
1.52
280.36
279.59
279.48
r9.88
p4.54
rlO.57
pll.30
r3.37
p-0.67
r787.58
K>p789.86
r697.12
|H)p699.03
rl!9.02
i)pll9.20
1.54
p27.4
[H>282.85
p282.18
January
February . .
March . . . .
April
May
June
IB.l
. . .
July
August
September
October
November . . . . . . .
December
.....
3.9
1988
January
February
March
.....
4,68
April
May
June
zi'.s
July ,
August .
September
....
....
October
November . . . . . . .
December
37^5
4.88
63.3
[H)3.98
2.48
1.90
1989
5,66
July
August
September
October
November
December .
p36!2
(NA)
(NA)
r81.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
pi. 50
(NA)
(NA)
..
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 26, and 27.
l
Thesc series reached high values before 1907: series 30 (83.4) in 1st Q 1984, series 36 actual (92.33) in February 1984, series 36
smoothed (79.84) in May 1984, and series 77 (1.58) in March 1986. 2This series is a weighted 4-terra moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1)
placed on the terminal month o£ the span.
OCTOBER 1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
£g| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Minor Economic
Process
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Timing Class
L.L.L
98. Change in
producer prices
for sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1
Year
and
month
(Percent)
U.L.L
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials2©
(1967 = 100)
L,L,L
L, L , L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices1
Smoothed 3
Actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©
(1941-43-10)
Profits and Profit Margins
L.L.L
U,L
Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
18. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L,C,L
L.C.L
Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj *
79. Current
dollars
80. Constant
(1982) dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
U,L
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)
1987
January
February
March
0.44
0.53
0.79
252.8
247.2
246.3
-0.25
April
May
June
0.43
2.25
1.69
July
August
September
October
November
December
264.51
280.93
292.47
isi.'i
117.'8
164.' 9
isi.'a
4.'<5
0.76
1.27
1.07
0.92
253,8
272.6
276.4
2.09
2.30
1.11
0.98
1.20
1.31
289.32
289.12
301.38
139*.4
124 '.7
169!s
155.*5
4^8
1.66
1.47
3.31
284.2
288.3
292.4
1,43
1.10
0.72
1.39
1.40
1.32
310.09
329.36
318.66
14s!3
133!6
180 '. 3
166 !i
5!6
2.65
1.06
0.00
294.6
292.0
0.30
-1.28
13U9
18CK9
164^9
4!?
0.49
280.16
245.01
240.96
148!9
293.1
1.13
0.70
0.41
0.90
0.89
1.11
292.5
288.9
292.3
0.78
0.36
1.19
0.30
0.24
0.33
250.48
258.13
265.74
159.9
141.*8
189 .'i
171.'?
5.*2
April
May
June
-0.22
-0.22
0.00
297.3
301.6
0.80
0.41
1.25
0.45
0.51
0.65
262.61
256.12
270.68
166.'9
147.' 3
187,' 6
i67!e
s.'i
July
August
September
1.47
-0.22
-0.22
309.0
309.9
306.4
0.05
0.15
0.65
0.58
0.44
269.05
263.73
267.97
173!2
E>15i!8
189!7
168^6
b\4
-0.36
0.36
0.22
305.0
309.7
0.27
0.40
0.54
277,40
271.02
276.51
E)17b\6
isiii
H>196!9
172^3
5^3
317.2
1.96
0.94
1.52
0.36
0.71
324.7
329.3
334.6
1.41
1.40
0.69
0.75
0.95
1.04
285.41
294.01
292.71
173.'6
147.' 5
i/i.'g
145.'8
5*.2
0.21
D335.0
330.5
-0.80
-0.89
-0.66
0.84
0.49
0.13
302.25
313.93
323,73
i6i!i
133!2
172 '.9
145!6
4^7
-0.98
-0.45
-0.23
-0.47
-0.48
331.93
346.61
E>347.33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
...
1.12
1988
-January
February
March
. ..
-. .
October
November
December
309.5
-0,14
-0.25
-
1989
January
February
March
..
April
May
June
July
August
September
rO.78
r-0.84
329.1
326.7
325.0
327.0
'•-0.78
. ..
-0.21
0.29
5
October
November
December
327.1
0.45
6
(NA)
349.55
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
lr
These series reached high values before 1987: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983, series 99 actual (3.21) in Aug. 1983 and smoothed (2.09) in
Nov. 1983, series 22 (6.9) in 1st Q 1984, and series 80 (190.3) in 3d Q 1985. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not
be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average
filter developed by Statistics Canada. "See footnote 1 on p. 70. 5Average for Oct. 2-25. 6Average for Oct. 4, 11, 18, and 25.
OCTOBER 1989
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . . . . . . .
^ PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
Minor Economic
Process . . . . . . . .
Timing Class . . . . . .
Year
and
month
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
U, L. L
L,L,l
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp, domestic
income l 2
15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations
(Percent)
(Cents)
L, L, L
26, Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector 2
(1977-100)
L, U
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
1,1,1.
Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
35. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1977-100)
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data
(1977-100)
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
(Percent)
64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income a
(Percent)
1987
January . . . . . . . . .
February
.
March . . . . . . . . . .
§.t
4.*5
98*. 1
383.2
3?s!6
17l'.2
0.73i
138.6
138.0
138.3
101.0
100.6
100.8
April . . . . . . . . . . .
May
June . . , .
s!6
98*.8
394.1
389 !i
171.3
0.727
137.2
136.9
136.6
100.0
6.2
July . . . . . . .
August . . . . . . . .
September
e!§
s.'s
99^3
404^7
400 ! 8
171.6
0.726
135,6
136.6
138.0
98.8
99.6
October . . . . . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December
e!i
4.4
98*. 6
4Q?!6
403 !i
173*.5
0.734
99.8
99.6
73!7
?i!5
73^3
100.6
137.1
137.3
136.8
100.1
99.9
73'.i
99.7
1988
eii
E>6 § .2
98*.9
419.0
412!g
173i5
0.732
137.2
137.7
139.2
100.0
100.4
101.5
73.2
6.3
B.9
98.' 3
426^2
419^9
176.9
0.740
138.1
137.7
138.5
100.7
100.4
100.9
n.z
July
August . . .
September
eii
s.g
98.' 6
431.1
E>424!9
178.1
0.746
137.7
137.6
138.4
100.4
100,3
100.9
73.3
October
November . . . . . . .
December
e'.a
s!g
99'.i
E>43i'.6
42K8
180.2
0.756
139.9
138.9
138.2
102.0
101.2
100.7
73.1
January
February
March
s!i
5.*9
9B.2
426^9
416.5
181.9
0.768
138.4
139.2
DHI.I
100.9
101.5
E>102.8
73! 2
April . . . . . . . . . . .
May
June
5.2
p4.8
98.1
412.2
401.9
139.2
139.2
r!39.3
101.5
101.5
rlOl.5
73A
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
r!39.8
r!40.2
P140.5
rl01.9
rlQ2.2
January . . . .
February . .
March
April
May
June
.
,
1989
July . . .
August
September
(NA)
H>184.3
(NA)
H>0.778
(NA)
pioa.4
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 29 and 30.
*lVAj inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
These series reached high values before 1987: series 81 (8.6) in 3d Q 1985, series 26 (99.8) in 3d Q 1985, and series 64 (74.0) in
4th Q 1986.
70
OCTOBER 1989
(NA)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^H MONEY AND CREDIT
Minor Economic
Process
Money
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L,U
85. Change
in money
supply Ml1
L,C,U
102. Change
in money
supply M2l
(Percent)
(Percent)
Velocity of Money
U,L
104. Change
in total liquid
assetsl
(Percent)
L,U
105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars
(Bit. dot.)
U, L
106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars
(Bil. dol.)
c,c,c
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1
(Ratio)
Credit Flows
C, Lg, C
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2
(Ratio)
L, U
U,l
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
112. Net change
in business loans
(NA)
97.22
-19.66
-16.76
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1987
0.68
0.16
0.38
0.65
0.01
0.12
0.69
0.27
0.00
632.7
631.0
630.7
2,449.7
2,439.5
2,432.0
5.992
1.287
1.301
1.306
1.40
0.20
-0.71
0.40
0.04
0.09
0.25
0.66
0.39
H>636.8
635,9
629.8
2,431.2
2,423.8
2,419.7
1.307
1.312
1.315
-5.75
6.014
July
August
September
0.20
0.38
0.31
0.29
0.47
0.55
0.13
0.59
0.72
629.5
629.2
629.5
2,420.5
2,421.6
2,428.7
6.126
1.320
1.324
1.323
-22.62
-29.33
28.15
October
November
December
1 26
-0 36
-0.30
0.60
0.07
0.18
rO 74
rO 21
rO.06
635.3
630.9
628.0
2,435.2
2,428,6
2,429.0
6.182
1.342
1.338
1.356
29.58
-8.88
34.34
0.81
0.22
0.49
0.71
0.69
0.63
rO.84
630.4
630.8
631.8
2,436.0
2,448.8
2,456.0
6.230
1.338
1.337
1.340
63.36
73.18
19.81
April
May
June
0.97
-0.01
0.70
0.71
0.32
0.44
rO.88
634.7
632.0
634.4
2,461.2
2,458.9
1)2,461.7
6.260
1.340
1.341
1.344
94.69
15.76
28.42
July
August
September
0.77
-0.01
0.17
.0,36
0.19
0.17
0.98
0.41
0.18
636.7
634.5
633.0
2,460,5
2,457.2
2,451.5
6.293
1.349
1.351
1.357
33,38
14.70
-21.98
October
November
December
0 22
0.15
0 47
0.24
0.56
0 33
0.46
0.57
0 79
631.4
630.8
631.7
2,445.6
2,453.4
2,453.6
6,372
1.374
1.363
1.370
36.38
15.43
80.89
January
February
March
-0.51
0.14
-0.14
-0.12
0.12
0.29
rO.09
rO.28
rO.75
625.0
623.4
619.6
2,437.0
2,430.2
2,425.8
6.499
1.394
1.407
1.417
89.27
91.34
40.09
April
May
June
-0.41
-1.25
-0.39
rO.08
rO.54
r-0.08
rO.27
612.8
601,8
598.5
r2,410.6
r2,390.8
2,399.4
6.707
1.424
1.431
E>1.431
52.54
E)rl23.64
r26.44
July
August
September
rO.91
rO 05
rO.74
pO.43
r602.6
602.9
p604.9
2,416.7
r2,431.3
p2,442.8
p6.7?i
rl.425
rl.421
pi. 416
r!2.97
r93.07
p-18.04
October
November
December
2
January
February
March
April
May
June
2.48
10.79
1988
January
February
March
0.69
rO.67
0.64
0.38
1989
pO.49
-0.28
rO.51
0.96
rO.60
pO.63
(NA)
1.17
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
L
The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 85 (2.66) in December 1986, series 102 (2.67) in January 1983,
series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 107 (7.034) in 4th quarter 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984.
2
Average for weeks ended October 2, 9, and 16.
OCTOBER 1989
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . . . . . . .
EQj MONEY AND CREDIT- - Continued
Minor Economic
Process
.. ,
Timing Class . . . . . .
U, I
113. Net change
in consumer
installment
creditl
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
L.L.L
111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Bank Reserves
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows— Continued
1,1,1
110. Funds
raised by private
nonfmancial
borrowers in
credit markets1
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L,L,L
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©
(Mil. doi.)
L,U
39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over1
(Percent)
Interest Rates
L.U.U
L, Lg, U
93. Free
reserves1©
94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
L, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
119. Federal
funds rate1©
(Percent)
114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills1©
(Percent)
1987
January
February
March
-19.58
19.61
27.43
3.6
1.5
3.8
409,432
48.20
P0.78
66.72
5.5
5.4
8.1
62.99
36 . 48
61.64
4 8
2 8
10 1
25.76
14 66
63.38
6 9
5 0
April
May
June
July . ,
August . .
September
...
October
November
December
3,220.7
3,586.0
3,249.5
2.43
2.40
2.28
633,288
3 222 5
2 488 5
3 332 4
2 36
2 43
2 35
566 400
2 036 1
1 968 2
2 967 2
2 34
2 37
2 35
603 688
3 004 2
1 663 5
3,985.0
2 66
2 54
2.47
3,894.1
4,625.5
3,291.7
2.44
2.32
2.19
3,065.6
2 316 5
2 453 4
2.31
717 684
594,880
4,582.8
2,291.2
r3 555 5
2.45
2.38
16.2
488
656
388
580
556
5?7
6.43
6.10
5.45
6 13
5 56
993
1 035
776
6 37
6 85
6 71
5 76
5 75
5 69
672
647
940
6 58
6 73
7 ?2
5 78
6 00
6 32
186
298
252
943
625
111
7 ?9
6 69
6 40
6.77
5.80
213
737
1,082
396
1,752
6 83
5 90
6.58
6.58
5.69
5.69
-166
44
414
89
385
-147
5.59
R 81
1988
January
February
March
,
,
86.20
65.77
57.44
April
May . .
June . . . .
40.96
46.15
64.86
July
August
September
16.45
65.51
22 68
October
November
December
30.91
63.37
61 13
7.2
10.6
520,240
6.7
11.3
7 4
8 3
8.3
11.1
r4 3
r7.4
r6.7
628,072
rlO 5
-823
-2,134
-1 538
-2 195
2,993
2 678
3 083
6.87
5.92
7 09
7 51
6 27
6 50
3,440
3,241
o o^q
7.75
8.01
6.73
7.02
2 42
-2,433
-2,288
-1 867
pi, 825. 5
p2,047.5
p2 026 8
2.62
2.48
-1,237
-1,742
2 49
-676
2,299
2,861
1 716
8.30
8.35
Bjf.
8 HP
p2, 100.0
p2, 316.1
p2 948 0
2.32
2.42
1,662
1,487
1 813
9.12
9.36
8.29
8.48
2 39
-517
-333
-856
9 85
8 83
p6 145 6
pi 873 2
p2 186 0
2 35
2 34
2 30
-1 513
2 289
1 720
1 490
9 84
9 81
9 53
8 70
8 40
8 22
p4,073.4
p2 960 0
pi 751 2
(NA)
9.24
q n?
7,92
7 Q1
7 79
2R an
37 KQ
2 32
2 34
o iq
7 ?1
7.34
7.68
1989
January
February
March
64.52
45 18
April
May . . .
June
32.99
50.65
32.60
July
August . .
September
r-6.06
p41 71
(NA)
October , .
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
11.8
585,932
7 ?
8.1
rll 1
546 276
r4,4
rl.8
n7 1
(NA)
(NA)
-689
-585
272
r210
p!95
694
675
p693
8
QQ
See note on page 60,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.
lf
rhe following scries reached their high values before 1987: scries 113 (132.08) in September 1985; .series 111 (23.2) in June 1984, scries 110 (897,756) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 £-7,328), series
94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Avcrage for weeks ended October 4, 11, IB, and 25. ^Average for
weeks ended October S, 12, 19, and 26.
72
OCTOBER
1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^g MONEY AND CREDIT- Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Outstanding Debt
Interest Rates— Continued
Timing Class
Year
and
month
U, Lg, Lg
C,Lg,Lg
U, Lg, Lg
116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate1
bonds ©
115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury1
bonds ©
117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond1average ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA 1
mortgages ©
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1©
(Percent)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
chargedx by
banks @
66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding
(Percent)
(Mil. dot.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
101. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)
1987
January
February
March
8.59
8.58
8.68
7.60
7.69
7.62
6.61
6.61
6.66
8.79
8.81
8.94
?!46
7.50
7.50
7.50
570,415
572,049
574,335
366,883
365,245
363,848
365,058
361,629
359,534
15.67
15.54
15.52
April
May
June . .
9.36
9.95
9.64
8.31
8.79
8.63
7.55
8.00
7.79
10.02
10.61
10.33
8.24
7.75
8.14
8.25
578,352
580,084
585,644
363,369
363,576
364,475
356,594
354,363
353,859
15,55
15.53
15.64
9.70
10.09
10.63
8.70
8.97
9.58
7.72
7.82
8.26
10.38
10.55
11.22
8!20
8.25
8.25
8.70
590,893
593,933
599,070
362,590
360,146
362,492
350,329
346,961
349,558
15.67
15.64
15.69
10.80
10.09
10.22
9.61
8.99
9.12
8.70
7.95
7.96
10.90
10.76
10.63
8^47
9.07
8.78
8.75
601,217
602,439
607,721
364,957
364,217
367,079
350,583
349,536
352,283
15.44
15.50
15.41
9.81
9.43
9.68
8.82
8.41
8.61
7.69
7.49
7.74
10.17
9.86
10.28
s!37
8.75
8.51
8.50
614,904
620,385
625,172
372,359
378,457
380,108
355,984
361,123
362,353
15.68
15.73
15.71
April
May
June
9.92
10.25
10.08
8.91
9.24
9.04
7.81
7.91
7.78
10.46
10.84
10.65
8*.49
8.50
8.84
9.00
628,585
632,431
637,836
387,999
389,312
391,680
366,729
365,551
365,373
15,69
15.72
15.75
July
August
September
10.12
10.27
10.03
9.20
9.33
9.06
7.76
7.79
7.66
10.66
10.74
10.58
9*.75
9.29
9.84
10.00
639,207
644,666
646,556
394,462
395,687
393,855
365,581
366,377
364,343
15.67
15.75
15.70
October
November
December
9.86
9.98
10.05
8.89
9.07
9.13
7.47
7.46
7.61
10.23
10.63
10.81
io!ii
10.00
10.05
10.50
649,132
654,413
659,507
396,887
398,173
404,914
366,809
367,657
371,481
15.53
15.70
15.68
January
February
March
9.92
.10.11
10.33
9.07
9.16
9.33
7.35
7.44
7.59
10.69
10.88
11.16
10*.97
10.50
10.93
11.50
682,020
687,397
691,162
412,353
419,965
423,306
373,170
379,030
379,647
[H>15.96
15.91
15.85
April
May .
June
10.11
9.82
9.24
9.18
8.95
8.40
7.49
7.25
7.02
10.88
10.55
10.08
11.89
11.50
11.50
11.07
693,911
698,132
700,849
427,684
r437,987
r440,190
380,841
r386,914
r390,239
15.82
15.88
15.87
9,20
9.08
9.29
8.19
8.26
8.31
6.96
7.06
7.26
9.61
9.95
9.94
10 '.78
r391,545
r441,271
r700,344
10,98
10.50 E>p703,820 [H)r449,027 [H> MOO, 917
p398,508
p447,524
(NA)
10.50
r!5.76
p!5.79
(NA)
...
July . . .
August .
September
....
October
November
December
1988
January
February
March
1989
July
August
September
2
October .
November
December
9.02
2
8.16
3
7.22
HO. 50
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
'The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984;
series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended
October 6, 13, 20, and 27. 3Average for weeks ended October 5, 12, and 19. ''Average for October 1 through 30.
OCTOBER 1989
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
month
950. Eleven leading
indicator components
(series 1,5, 8, 19,20,29,
32, 83, 92, 99, 106)
1-month
span
1987
January
February . . . . . . . .
March
April
May
June
t2)
40.9
54.5
r63,6
69.1
54.5
81.8
July
August
September . . . . . . .
October
November
December
72.7
r68.2
r45.5
45.5
22.7
31.8
6-month
span
C2)
r72.7
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
952. Seven lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77,91,95,
101, 109, 120)
961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
C2)
C2)
Revised 2
Revised 2
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
78.6
35.7
42.9
57.1
57.1
57.1
57.5
80.0
17.5
57.1
50.0
35.7
42.9
64.3
71.4
1-month
span
9-month
span
962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas '
963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 349
industries
1-month
span
9»month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
67.5
72.5
85.0
88.2
35.3
52.0
69.6
82.4
78.4
55.6
59.3
61.0
67.3
65,8
64.8
10.0
92.5
45,0
77.5
42.5
77.5
73.5
78.4
15.7
80.4
94.1
90.2
61.9
58.6
59.7
66.8
67.6
69.5
1-month
span
63.6
81.8
100.0
81.8
r68.2
r50.0
r75.0
72.7
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
72.7
63.6
100.0
100.0
r62.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
42.9
35.7
71.4
57.1
64.3
71.4
57.5
72.5
25.0
57.5
67.5
87.5
64.7
84.3
37.3
92.2
59.8
62.7
65.3
60.6
63,0
73, §
73.?,
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
85.7
57.1
28.6
92.9
100.0
37.5
50.0
60.0
86.3
23.5
85.7
90.0
40.0
27.5
27.5
62.7
80.4
67.8
64.5
60.7
71.5
71.8
72.2
r63.6
36.4
r36.4
36.4
75.0
100.0
5.9
71,3
1988
January . , .
February . .
March , . . . . , , , ,
31.8
45.5
r62.5
63.6
r59.1
r86.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
85.7
71.4
42.9
78.6
85.7
85.7
37.5
32.5
62.5
42.5
65.0
32.5
80.4
29.4
60.8
45.1
41.2
33.3
60.7
63.5
63.0
69.9
70.2
71.5
April .
May
June
63.6
r36.4
rBl.8
77.3
86.4
72.7
r?5.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
42.9
42.9
57.1
42.9
57.1
57.1
77.5
30.0
57.5
20.0
42.5
57.5
94.1
29.4
31.4
23.5
86.3
96.1
62.8
61.3
67. <?
73.9
73.9
69,1
31.8
54.5
45.5
59.1
63.6
45.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
42.9
71.4
57.1
35.7
78.6
71.4
52.5
27.5
80.0
62.5
47.5
32.5
70.6
20.6
76.5
66.7
82,4
25.5
63.6
58.0
55.4
70.2
74.6
73.5
r40.9
77.3
50.0
36.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
64.3
85.7
50.0
85.7
52.5
45.0
22.5
45.0
35.0
60.0
72.5
100.0
100.0
70.6
40.2
37.3
68.6
63.9
68.2
64.6
73.9
74,5
75.8
54.5
36.4
r75.0
100.0
100.0
78.6
85.7
71.4
100.0
70.0
55.0
40.0
32.5
32.5
r30.0
29.4
41.2
45.1
43.1
30.4
17.6
68.3
60.5
61.0
75.1
69.5
68.2
21.4
57.1
42.9
71.4
42.9
85.0
r32.5
92.2
r45.1
p47.1
"40.0
70.0
56.9
58.2
55.6
59.7
r66.0
r63.5
p58.5
r3Q.O
r45.0
p57.5
64.7
July .
August
September . .
October
November
December
r40.9
40.9
68.2
87.5
75.0
75.0
100.0
5.9
1989
January
February
March
72.7
22,7
18.2
r22.7
50.0
75.0
April
May
Jung
72.7
18.2
40.9
18.2
100.0
r31.8
p50,0
25.0
75.0
July . .
August . . .
September
50.0
45.5
p36.4
r62.5
100.0
3
50.0
75.0
75.0
3
100.0
100.0
57.1
57.1
"30.0
85.7
78.6
5.0
P 52.5
7.8
r35.3
p76.5
rS5.6
r56.3
p47.4
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: -1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6°
month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
''Figures are the percent of components declining.
2
See "Now Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 77 tind 95, for which data are not available.
74
OCTOBER
1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
^J DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Year
and
month
964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries
1-month
span
9-month
span
1 -quarter
span
January
February
March
41.2
70.6
47.1
91.2
73.5
89.7
41
April
May
June
54.4
48.5
61.8
80.9
73.5
82.4
82
67.6
44.1
58.8
82.4
73.5
73.5
59
52.9
44.1
55.9
76.5
73.5
73.5
65
January
February
March
47.1
55.9
41.2
73.5
85.3
76.5
44
April
May
June
57.4
55.9
55.9
73.5
70.6
79.4
65
July
August
September
41.2
67.6
50.0
79.4
79.4
82.4
41
October
November
December
52.9
64.7
64.7
61.8
58.8
82.4
53
January
February
March
55.9
35.3
44.1
54.4
66.2
52.9
p47
April
May
June
72.1
35.3
45.6
r55.9
p41.2
966. Industrial production, 24 industries
967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials @
968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks1®
960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies 2 ©
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
91.7
89.6
75.0
84.6
42.3
30.8
88.5
96.2
80.8
98.8
95.2
83.3
87.8
92.7
92.5
*74
61
31.2
64.6
60.4
75.0
87.5
83.3
61.5
88.5
57.7
73.1
96,2
80.8
39.3
46.3
93.9
97.5
97.5
62.5
*76
'oi
50.0
70.8
70.8
91.7
91.7
95.8
73.1
76.9
61.5
88.5
88.5
76.9
81.3
95.0
10.0
12.5
10.0
*78
*63
70,8
62.5
50,0
83.3
79.2
83.3
53.8
46.2
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
0,0
0.0
17.5
'58
75.0
79.2
66.7
53.8
12.8
"54
52.1
54.2
70.8
83.3
75.0
70.8
42.3
34.6
65.4
69.2
61.5
61.5
75.0
88.8
37.0
91.7
87.5
79.2
57.7
65.4
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
37.2
51
79.2
60.4
58.3
pbi
83.3
60.4
56.3
79.2
83.3
91.7
42.3
46.2
38.5
75.0
75.0
66.7
91.7
70.8
68.8
64.6
29.2
60.4
75.0
62.5
4-Q moving
average
(4-quarter span)
1987
....
..
July
August
September . .
October
November
December
'
8.8
8.0
*77
1988
(NA)
5.1
7.7
*80
52.6
'?7
97.4
84.6
91.0
92.3
57.7
53.8
65.4
30.8
28.2
69.2
79.5
64.1
84.6
72
42.3
69.2
76.9
57.7
69.2
61.5
84.6
23.1
74.4
97.4
78.9
86.8
*72
46.2
53.8
53.8
100.0
94.7
92.3
39.5
100.0
r62.5
69.2
65.4
57.7
r66.7
r79.2
p83.3
53.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
61.5
89.5
78.9
81.6
97.4
97.4
3.8
1989
July
August
September
r35^3
64.7
p55.9
(NA)
79.2
50.0
r85.4
r45.8
r66.7
p35.4
38.5
50.0
46.2
3
October
November
December
3
46.2
(NA)
97.4
76.3
94.7
39.5
38.5
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
^ased on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries through March 1988, on 39 industries
through February 1989, and on 38 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on the average for October 3, 10, 17, and 24,
OCTOBER 1989
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Later
projections
c. Early
projections
(1-Qspan)
(1-Qspan)
21.4
52.4
71,4
59.5
64.3
57.1
31.0
38.1
47.6
71.4
81.0
47.6
40.5
54,8
59.5
69.0
90.5
85.7
81.0
85.7
71.4
81.0
61.9
52,4
88.1
95.2
71.4
85.7
76.2
66.7
(1-Qspan)
971. New orders, manufacturing1©
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade 1 ®
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
Actual
Antic pated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade 1 ©
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4=Q span)
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
76
76
74
75
82
83
84
78
70
71
70
70
78
81
81
78
72
73
74
74
81
84
83
80
78
83
82
82
80
83
85
86
74
74
75
76
78
81
83
82
78
80
82
83
82
83
85
86
82
82
82
83
84
84
86
84
76
76
76
78
82
82
82
84
80
80
82
84
85
84
86
85
80
75
82
86
81
78
72
73
80
84
80
77
80
76
84
87
84
80
1987
First quarter . . . . ,
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
71,4
66.7
54.8
64.3
42.9
52.4
59.6
73.8
66.7
71.4
61.9
(NA)
57.1
52.4
66.7
1989
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
....
....
....
....
(NA)
52.4
(NA)
(NA)
^^1 DIFFUSION INDEXES— Continued
Vnif
rear
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 1 ©
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 @
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
978. Selling prices, retail
trade1©
977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1©
976. Selling prices, manufacturing l@
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
59
60
58
63
62
65
62
59
59
59
58
62
64
64
62
62
60
62
66
62
62
62
64
64
60
60
61
62
64
64
68
70
60
66
67
66
63
70
72
70
63
68
66
69
67
67
72
72
64
64
68
70
67
70
69
68
62
64
62
63
74
74
74
75
70
69
74
72
74
73
74
72
72
72
71
63
70
70
73
70
68
71
70
72
66
65
63
64
60
60
72
72
70
74
68
67
74
71
72
72
69
66
73
71
70
72
73
69
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
58
59
60
58
59
60
59
58
62
61
62
60
58
58
60
57
60
61
64
64
60
59
62
62
64
65
66
68
63
62
62
63
63
62
62
61
62
60
62
62
61
58
(4-Q span)
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by(§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun ft
Bradstroot diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
76
OCTOBER 1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Qj SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components
1989
March
February
May
April
Julyr
June
August r
SeptemberP
961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGl
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries
o
Percent rising of 20 components
41.1
41.0
(55)
(40)
+
41.3
41.0
o
(5)
(85)
41.0
o
(70)
41.0
40.9
(30)
(45)
+
41.0
(58)
Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products .
Furniture and fixtures
39.6
39.7
+
+
40.0
39.8
+
+
40.5
39.9
39.7
39.4
+
o
39.4
+
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
42.2
43.4
o
+
42.2
43.5
+
42.5
43.3
41.9
43.2
+
+
42.2
43.3
41.8
42.5
+
+
41,9
42.7
41.7
42.5
o
41.5
42.5
41.0
42.8
40.7
42.5
o
o
40.7
42.5
41.1
39.6
+
41.3
39.4
+
40.5
39.5
+
+
40.7
40.1
+
39 .3
39.6
39.5
+
+
40.2
39.6
+
42.3
43.0
+
42.5
42.9
o
41.5
42.4
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
o
+
41.9
42.6
Electric and electronic equipment . .
Transportation equipment
o
+
40.9
43.1
40.6
43.1
+
o
Instruments and related products . .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
o
+
41.5
39.5
o
41.1
39.5
+
+
41.5
39.8
+
40.3
37.8
+
40.4
36.3
+
+
40.7
38.1
41.1
36.9
+
+
41.7
37.6
41.4
37.1
o
o
41.4
37.1
41,2
37.0
43.3
37.9
+
o
43.4
37.9
43.3
37.7
o
+
43.3
37.8
43.2
37.6
42.3
43.2
+
+
42.6
44.3
42.1
43.9
+
+
42.5
44.6
41.6
38.0
o
+
41.6
38.3
41.5
37.4
o
+
41.5
37.9
+
40.6
42.6
41.4
39.3
o
40.0
39.6
42.3
42.5
41.4
42.2
o
o
41.4
42.2
40.9
42.5
+
+
41.1
42.7
41.0
39.5
o
40.8
39.5
40.7
37,3
o
+
40.7
39.6
o
41.0
37.0
+
40,7
37.1
+
+
43.4
37.7
+
43.2
37.9
42.3
43.7
+
+
42.7
44.1
41.4
38.2
+
+
41.5
38.3
+
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers 2
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
40.8
37.1
+
+
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
+
o
43.2
38.0
+
o
'+
42.3
44.0
o
o
+
41.7
38.6
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products 2
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products
. .
+
964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIESl
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
- 124,107
Percent rising of 34 components
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+ 125,377
(35)
...
....
.
...
+ 129,372
- 123,524
(72)
(44)
o
41.0
37.9
42.5
44.3
41.4
37.7
o
+
3
+ 125,137
(35)
- 122,031
(46)
+ 126,825
- 126,678
(65)
(35)
(56)
+
12,602
13,377
-
11,885
12,910
+
+
12,865
13,007
-
12,481
12,792
+
11,770
13,435
-
11,510
12,820
+
11,269
13,300
+
+
11,487
13,733
+
21,921
19,573
+
-
22,255
18,272
+
+
22,731
19,890
-
22,288
18,677
+
+
23,348
19,593
+
20,917
19,773
+
-
22,667
19,424
+
22,131
20,643
-
33,381
23,253
+
-
37,050
23,005
o
+
37,062
23,817
o
33,470
23,816
-
33,414
23,577
+
-
34,012
22,999
+
+
36,510
23,655
+
34,781
23,903
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
OCTOBER
1989
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
^Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Continued
1989
Diffusion index components
February
Julyr
Juner
May
April
March
August r
September^
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1977-100)
-
All industrial production
Percent ri\in# of 24 cntnf>ttncnt\
2
140.5
+
140.7
+
(60)
(29)
141.7
141.6
(79)
(50)
+
142.0
o
142.0
(85)
(46)
136.9
169.5
123.4
+
142,4
142.3
(67)
(35)
+
138.4
169.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
85.1
Durable manufactures,
Lumber and products . , .
Furniture and fixtures
,
,
Clay, j'Jass, and stone products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Prnruiry cue tills
.
-
132.8
164.8
+
+
133.4
165.8
+
+
135.1
168.0
+
+
135.5
170.2
+
+
137.2
170.8
-
125.4
+
125.5
+
124.7
90.1
-
123.9
87.2
0
+
123.9
87.3
+
89.0
+
+
124.1
88.4
+
-
125.9
187.0
+
+
126.1
187.1
o
125.5
187.1
181.1
131.6
+
+
182.5
133.2
-
182.4
132.4
164.9
118.7
-
164.8
91.1
89.2
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery
0
+
124.5
180,8
+
123.8
183.0
^
123.1
184.7
+
+
124.8
186.5
+
+
125.2
187.5
HtK'trical machinery
Transportation equipment
+
-
181.7
136.4
-
181.6
134.8
+
+
182.2
136.4
-
181.6
135.5
+
181.9
134.2
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures
+
-
161.3
110.0
+
+
161.8
112.5
+
+
163.0
115.3
+
+
164.3
117.1
+
+
165.7
119.1
+
-
166.1
119.0
-
-
146,3
104,7
-
145.4
101.5
+
+
146.6
109.2
+
147.2
105.9
+
147.9
104.2
+
147.5
106,0
+
Textile null products
Apparel products
o
119.4
110.2
+
-
119.7
109.9
+
+
122.5
111.3
+
+
123.6
111.5
+
+
123.8
111.9
123.5
111,7
+
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
+
151.7
194.6
o
+
151.7
198.5
+
150.7
200.1
150.1
199.0
+
150.2
+
200.5
+
-
152.4
199.4
+
+
153.5
200.0
-
158.5
+
+
159.2
+
+
159.3
97.3
158.2
96.9
+
+
159,9
97.9
+
+
161.9
+
162.0
96.3
98,3
97.3
+
175.0
+
176.4
+
+
178.0
61.4
180.5
60.3
+
+
182.3
60.5
o
+
182.3
182,0
60.8
60.5
-
134.7
+
137.7
+
96.8
145.5
-
94.0
137.1
+
-
101.2
129.2
+
+
108.2
130.2
89.5
+
+
143.5
+
89.1
144.5
+
+
90.5
146.6
+
+
90.6
150.2
o
150.2
(NA)
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods ,
Tobacco products
........
Chemicals and products
Petf oleum products
.,. ,
Rubber and plastics products
leather and products
,
,.,
97.0
61.2
62.9
+
147.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
124.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
200.8
+
(NA)
98.1
(NA)
(NA)
Mimnp;
Metal mining
Coal . , , . . , , .
..,*..,.......
Oil and fas extraction .
..
Stone and eartli minerals .
....
.,.,,..,.,....
98.6
+
142.5
98.1
89.6
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
( t )
rising, (o)
(NA)
90.3
unchanged, and (
)
falling.
+
135.4
+
-
149.1
(NA)
+
(NA)
(NA)
90.5
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
1
Data
2
arc seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Wherc actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
78
140.0
OCTOBER
1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
f^ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
Diffusion index components
1989
April
March
February
June
May
967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS
Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .
+
Percent rising of 13 components
329.3
+
334.6
+
-
330,5
(54)
(58)
(65)
335.0
-
July
September
October 1
2
329.1
-
(38)
(38)
August
326.7
-
325.0
(38)
+
(50)
327.0
o
(46)
327.1
(38)
Dollars
Copper scrap
(pound) . .
(kilogram)..
-
0.910
2.006
+
1.032
2.275
+
1.058
2.332
-
0.969
2.136
-
0.940
2.072
-
0.901 +
1.986
0.952
2.099
+
1.012
2.231
+
1.045
2.304
Lead scrap
(pound) . .
(kilogram)..
-
0.239
0,527
-
0.217
0.478
+
0.218
0.481
o
0.218
0.481
+
0.228
0.503
+
0.231 +
0.509
0.242
0.534
+
0.260
0.573
-
0.258
0.569
Steel scrap
(U.S. t o n ) . .
(metric t o n ) . .
- 113.000
124.560
0 113.000
124.560
o 113.000
124.560
- 112.200
123.678
- 111.000
122.355
- 108.000
119.048
- 105.000
115.741
- 102.250
112.710
- 100.000
110.230
Tin
(pound) . .
(kilogram). .
+
4.528
9.982
+
5.022
11.072
+
5.750
12.676
+
5.822
12.835
-
5.685
12.533
-
5.290
11.662
-
4.786
10.551
-
4.535
9.998
-
4.430
9.766
Zinc
(pound) . .
(kilogram)..
+
0.901
1.986
+
0.954
2.103
-
0.879
1.938
-
0.854
1.883
-
0.809
1.784
-
0.804
1.772
+
0.829
1.828
-
0.822
1.812
-
0.804
1.772
(yard)
(meter)..
+
0.282
0.308
o
0.282
0.308
+
0.283
0.309
-
0.282
0.308
+
0.284
0.311
+
0.286
0.313
-
0.284
0.311
o
0.284
0.311
+
0.285
0.312
(pound) . ,
(kilogram) . .
-
0.554
1.221
+
0.578
1.274
+
0.614
1.354
+
0.635
1.400
+
0.638
1.407
+
0.670
1.477
+
0.698
1.539
-
0.686
1.512
+
0.691
1.523
(yard).,
(meter)..
+
0.610
0.667
+
0.630
0.689
+
0.650
0.711
+
0.708
0.774
+
0.768
0.840
+
0.815
0.891
-
0.784
0.857
-
0.782
0.855
-
0.780
0.853
Wool tops
.(pound) . .
(kilogram)..
+
7.075
15.598
6.650
14.661
-
6.250
13.779
-
5.570
12.280
-
5.400
11.905
-
5.200
11.464
+
5.220
11.508
+
5.250
11.574
Hides
(pound)
(kilogram)..
+
0.976
2.152
+
1.048
2.310
-
0.975
2.149
-
0.954
2.103
-
0.948
2.090
+
1.000
2.205
+
1.020
2.249
+
1.052
2.319
-
1.050
2.315
Rosin
(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..
o
65.000
143.299
o
65.000
143.299
o
65.000
143.299
o
65.000
143.299
-
64.500
142.197
-
63.000
138.890
o
63.000
138.890
o
63.000
138.890
o
63.000
138.890
Rubber
(pound) . .
(kilogram)..
+
0.592
1.305
-
0.566
1.248
-
0.553
1.219
-
0.520
1.146
-
0.494
1.089
-
0.492
1.085
-
0.473
1.043
-
0.462
1.019
o
0.462
1.019
Tallow
(pound) . .
(kilogram)..
+
0.147
0.324
-
0.145
0.320
-
0.143
0.315
+
0.144
0.317
+
0.150
0.331
-
0.142
0.313
-
0.131
0.289
+
0.138
0.304
+
0.144
0,317
falling.
The "r" indicates revised: "p",
Burlap
Cotton
,
Print cloth
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
(
rising, (o) -= unchanged, and ( • - ) -
5.225
11,519
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
l
The index is the average for October 2 through 25; component prices are averages f'or October 3, 10, 17, and 24.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2
OCTOBER 1989
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
b. Difference
. Total
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars
213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars
(Ann, rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
1986
4,181.3
4,194.7
4,253.3
4,297.3
73,4
13.4
58.6
44.0
7.3
1.3
5.7
4.2
3,721.1
3,704.6
3,712.4
3,733.6
-16.5
7.8
21.2
6.6
-1.8
0.8
2.3
15,455
15,351
15,343
15,391
3,679.2
3,697.6
3,718.3
3,754.4
First quarter , .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
4,388,8
4,475.9
4,566.6
4,665.8
91.5
87.1
90.7
99.2
8.8
8.2
8.4
9.0
3,783.0
3,823.5
3,872.8
3,935.6
49.4
40.5
49.3
62.8
5.4
4,4
5.3
6.6
15,562
15,693
15,854
16,068
3,764.9
3,810.1
3,866.0
3,879.0
First quarter . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
4,739,8
4,838.5
4,926.9
5,017.3
74.0
98.7
88.4
90.4
6.5
8.6
7.5
7.5
3,974.8
4,010.7
4,042.7
4,069.4
39.2
35.9
32.0
26.7
4,0
3.7
3.2
2.7
16,192
16,303
16,388
16,452
3,940.5
3,989.2
4,005.2
4,051.0
5,113.1
5,201,7
p5,273.2
95,8
88.6
p71.5
7.9
7.1
4,106.8
4,132.5
p4,158.1
37.4
3.7
25.7
p25.6
2,5
P 2.5
16,567
16,633
p!6,690
4,082.3
4,113.5
p4,127.9
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
58,7
1987
1989
First quarter . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
p5.6
GNP AND PERSONAL JNCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
231. Total in 1982
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars
227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
fail, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil, dol.)
1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
2,959.2
3,006.5
3,024.3
3,063.4
2,609.2
2,648.6
2,637.3
2,646.2
10,837
10,975
10,900
10,909
2,734.3
2,761.0
2,826.0
2,868.5
2,410.9
2,432.4
2,464.4
2,477.8
381.8
393.6
426.4
422.0
363.7
374.5
401.9
397,5
3,142.8
3,138.1
3,223,5
3,319.4
2,672,3
2,632.5
2,675,6
2,726,2
10,993
10,805
10,953
11,130
2,914.7
2,989.4
3,055.9
3,083.3
2,478.3
2,507.7
2,536.5
2,532.3
401.2
419.2
439.3
424.5
376.1
389.3
403.8
389.4
3,376.4
3,435.9
3,511.7
3,587,4
2,757.2
2,773.3
2,806.4
2,835.9
11,232
11,273
11,377
11,466
3,148.1
3,204.9
3,263.4
3,324.0
2,570.8
2,586.8
2,608.1
2,627,7
446.4
454.6
452.5
467.4
408.4
414.8
410.7
420.5
3,689,5
3,747.7
p3,809.8
2,881,
2,887.
p2,921.5
11,625
11,622
pll,726
3,381.4
3,444.1
p3,509.5
2,641,0
2,653.7
p2,691.2
466.4
471.0
p490.4
419.3
424.9
p440.0
1987
First quarter . . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter . ,
Fourth quarter ,
1988
First quarter . . .
Second quarter .
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter .
1989
First quarter . . .
Second quarter .
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter ,
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.
80
OCTOBER
1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
VQ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
Tear
and
quarter
Voar
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
238, Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
^Q GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
237. Services in
current dollars
239. Services in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
241. Total in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Fixed investment in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1986
939.0
935.4
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
941.4
952.1
870.1
879.8
879.1
883.5
1,413.4
1,432.0
1,458.2
1,494.4
1,177.1
1,178.0
1,183.4
1,196.8
683.8
657.2
647.7
648.8
676.1
642.3
625.1
615.2
643.1
651.8
654.2
660.9
634.2
635.2
631.0
636.0
976.4
994.3
1,006,0
1,015.4
887.7
889.0
891.8
892.9
1,537.1
1,575.8
1,610.6
1,643.3
1,214.5
1,229,5
1,240.9
1,250.0
673.1
684.1
692.8
749.7
646.3
656.7
671.7
721.1
647.7
665.3
683.2
686.3
628.2
643.4
664.9
664,6
1,022.2
1,042.4
1,066.2
1,078.4
896.6
899.2
910.3
912.0
1,679.5
1,707.9
1,744.7
1,778.2
1,265.9
1,272.8
1,287.0
1,295.2
728.8
748.4
771.1
752.8
707.0
713.5
733.6
709.1
698.7
719.1
726.5
734.1
672.7
692.0
696.1
690,8
1,098.3
1,121.5
915.0
909.7
p918.6
1,816.7
1,851.7
pi, 890.1
1,306.7
1,319.0
pi, 332. 5
769.6
775.0
p791.0
721.1
719,8
p735.2
742.0
747.6
p755.8
696.6
700.7
p705.0
1987
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988
first quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
pi, 128. 9
B
rear
and
quarter
Voar
GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
|Q GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Total in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
40.7
41.9
5.4
7.1
-6.4
-12.2
-5.9
-20.8
25.4
18.8
18.1
13.3
850.3
869.3
880.3
888.9
744.1
761.2
765.2
776.0
358.5
368.7
369.9
368.8
324.4
335.4
334.2
342.4
491.8
500.6
510.4
520.1
419.6
425.7
430.9
433.6
906.9
916.8
933.2
947.5
776.6
774.9
783.5
792.1
375.6
378.2
384.5
388.1
338.1
334.7
340.7
344.9
531.4
538.6
548.7
559.4
438.5
440.1
442.8
447.2
945.7
960.1
958.6
1,011.4
775.1
783.0
775.9
806.4
374.1
377.1
367.5
406.4
323.8
327.9
319.8
343.9
571.6
583.0
591.0
604.9
451.3
455.1
456.1
462.5
1,016.0
1,033.2
pi, 040. 5
799.7
810.3
P805.7
399.0
406.0
p403.1
335.5
343.6
p335.9
617.0
627.2
p637.4
464.2
466.7
p469.9
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
9.5
6.8
63.3
56.6
30.0
29.3
44.6
18.7
34.3
21.5
37.5
1988
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
18.3
1989
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
27.7
27.4
p35.1
24.5
19.1
p30.2
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
KCII
OCTOBER
1989
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
quarter
255. Constant
(1982) dollars
250. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compel
sation of
employees
257. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
253. Current
dollars
256. Constant
(1982) dollars
252. Current
dollars
220. National in
come in current
dollars
Imports oi goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
-87.1
-92.7
-100.8
-108.9
-110.0
-131.2
-142.3
-135.4
395,5
390.7
397.3
402,4
392.9
389.6
399.6
406.5
482.7
483,4
498.0
511.3
502.9
520.7
541.9
541.9
3,363.4
3,394,5
3,419.3
3,473.1
2,463.8
2,487.2
2,523.3
2,571.2
-106.0
-114,4
-115,3
-114.6
-118,2
-115,9
-118.9
-109.8
416.5
437.4
458.0
482.6
418.7
439.5
461.3
484.1
522.5
551.8
573.4
597.2
536.9
555.4
580.2
593,9
3,550.5
3,616.4
3,694.8
3,799.9
2,615.0
2,656.6
2,709,8
2,778.7
-82.8
-74.9
-66.2
-70,8
-78.2
-72.6
-74.9
-73.8
521.6
532.5
556.8
579.7
517.4
519.7
531.9
551.4
604.3
607.5
623.0
650.5
595.6
592,3
606.9
625.2
3,853.6
3,933.6
4,005.7
4,097.4
2,819.4
2,878.9
2,935.1
2,997.2
-54.0
-50.6
p-67.7
-55.0
-51.2
p-74.1
605.6
626.1
p618.6
569.7
587,5
P587.5
659.6
676.6
p686.3
624.6
638.7
P661.6
4,185.2
4,249.6
(NA)
3,061.7
3,118.2
p3,170.5
1987
First quarter . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter ,
Fourth quarter
1988
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1989
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
SAVING
NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
Year
and
quarter
282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj l
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj l
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
295. Business
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
269.4
289.5
279.7
289.2
9.6
11,5
11.7
13.5
292.7
280.9
279.7
275.2
327.9
325.4
324,9
324.0
559.6
523.0
508.8
510.0
550.8
542.8
545.5
539.3
135.9
155.0
106.6
102.0
306.7
305.8
305.2
328,7
14.7
13.0
11,5
14.3
279.9
293.7
313.0
308.2
334.2
347.2
355.3
370.0
529.5
535.0
551.1
599.5
546,8
556.4
571.0
573.9
135,9
55.9
73.6
141.8
324.0
331.8
327.0
328.3
15.6
14.6
16.3
16.1
318.1
325.3
330.9
340.2
376.6
383.0
396.4
415.7
619.1
633.4
669.8
647,4
588.1
588.5
592.8
605.8
131.9
134.0
149,6
163.4
359.3
355.5
P345.4
11.8
9,8
p4.8
316.3
307.8
436.1
693.5
695.8
(NA)
586.4
593.0
205.7
200.7
p!96.0
1987
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1988
First quarter , .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1989
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
(NA)
458.4
P470.7
(NA)
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1
IVA J inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
82
OCTOBER 1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q SAVING-Continued
Year
and
quarter
298. Government
surplus or deficit
Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
293. Personal
saving rate
Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
248. Presidential
fixed investment
(Percent)
247. Change in
business inventories
249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)
(Percent)
251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-127.2
-174.7
-143.4
-131.3
4.6
5.2
3.5
3.3
65.4
65.8
66.4
66.8
10.5
10.4
10.1
10.1
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.2
-153.2
-77.3
-93.5
-116,3
4.3
1.8
2.3
4.3
66.4
66.8
66.9
66.1
9.7
9.8
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
0.6
0.4
0.2
1.4
-2.4
»2.6
-2,5
-2.5
-101,0
-89.1
-72.7
-121.9
3.9
3.9
4.3
4.6
66.4
66.2
66.2
66.3
9.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.8
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.4
-1.7
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-98.7
-97.9
5.6
5.4
66.1
66.2
9.8
9.9
4.7
4.5
0.5
0.5
-1.1
-1.0
(NA)
p5.1
p9.9
p4.4
1.0
0.1
-0.2
-0,3
-2.1
-2.2
-2.4
-2,5
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
10.0
9.8
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
10.0
10.1
10.0
1989
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
p66.6
pO.7
p-1.3
Q| SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter
Percent of GNP-Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
Percent of national income
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
64. Compensation of
employees
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj l
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj *
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdjl
289. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
. Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
8.6
8.8
8.7
8.6
11.8
11.9
12.0
12.1
73.3
73.3
73.8
74.0
8.0
8.5
8.2
8.3
0,3
0.3
0.3
0.4
8.7
8.3
8.2
7.9
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.3
8.6
8.4
8.4
8.3
12.1
12.0
12.0
12.0
73.7
73.5
73.3
73.1
8.6
8.5
8,3
8.7
0,4
0.4
0.3
0.4
7.9
8.1
8.5
8.1
9.4
9.6
9.6
9.7
7.9
7.8
7.5
8.1
, 12.1
73.2
73.2
73.3
73.1
8.4
8,4
8.2
8.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
9.8
9,7
9.9
7.8
7.8
p7.6
12.1
12.1
73.2
73.4
(NA)
8.6
8.4
0.3
0.2
7.6
7.2
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . .-..
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
12.0
12.0
12.1
10.1
1989
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
p!2.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
10.4
10.8
(NA)
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
J
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
OCTOBER 1989
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
'
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month
310. Index
(1982^100)
310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans *
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS
31 1 Index
(1982-100)
31k. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food
Consumer price index
for all urban consumers
Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
320. Index ©
(1982-84-100)
320c. Change
over 1-month
spansl
(Percent)
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
322. Index
(1982-84-100)
322c. Change
over l°month
spans *
(Percent)
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans x
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1987
January
February
March , . . .
ne)6
April
May
June
117)1
July
August
September . ,
117)9
October
November
December . . . .
nsle
3.2
3.7
111.2
111.6
112.1
0.7
0.4
0,4
5.0
5.1
5.3
112.1
112.3
112.5
0.6
0.2
0.2
4.0
4.2
4,9
3.9
112.7
113.1
113,5
0.4
0.4
0.3
4.4
4.5
4.0
112.8
113.4
114.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
3.1
2,7
3.2
3,7
113.8
114.4
115.0
0,3
0.4
0.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
113.8
113.8
114.3
-0.3
0.0
0.4
3.0
2.3
2,1
3.6
115.3
115.4
115.4
0,3
0.3
0,2
3.9
3.3
3.7
114.5
114.7
115.3
0.2
0.2
0.5
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.3
115.7
116.0
116.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
3.9
4.0
4.4
115.7
115.5
116.0
0.3
0,4
3.7
4.2
4.4
5.0
117.1
117.5
118.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
4.4
4.7
4.9
116.6
117.1
117.8
0.5
0.4
0.6
5.6
7.0
7.6
5.5
118.5
119.0
119.8
0,4
0.3
0.4
4.8
4.5
4.5
118,9
119.5
120.3
0.9
0,5
0.7
7.0
6.4
5.9
4.3
120.2
120.3
120.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
4.8
4.9
5,1
120.6
120.8
121.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
5.5
5.3
5.6
4.1
121.1
121.6
122.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
5.6
6.2
5.9
122.1
122.6
123.6
0.7
0.4
0.8
6,1
7.1
6.9
5.3
123.1
123.8
124.1
0.7
0.6
0,2
5.2
4.3
3.6
124.2
125.0
125.3
0.5
0.6
0.2
6.0
5.5
4.3
124.4
124.6
125.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
125.7
125.9
126.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
115)7
3.8
116)9
2.8
117)9
2.4
119)6
1988
January
February
March
119)2
April
May
June
126)5
July
August
September
121)9
October
November
December
123)3
2.0
119)9
4.8
12l)4
4.4
123)6
4.7
124)4
-0.2
1989
January . . . . . . . . .
February
March
124)5
April .
May
June
125)9
July . . ,
August
September
pize.'s
4.0
125)6
4.6
127)2
p2.6
p2.9
pl28)6
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
84
OCTOBER 1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
JQ PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer price index, alt commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index ©
(1982=100)
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©
(Percent)
Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing
Producer price index, industrial commodities
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1 ©
{Ann. rate,
percent)
335. Index ©
335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©
(1982 = 100)
(Percent)
335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
331. Index
331c. Change
over 1-month
spansl
(1982=100)
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
{Ann. rate,
percent)
1987
January
February
March
100.5
101.0
101.2
0.8
0.5
0.2
4.5
5.7
6.7
100.4
100.8
101.1
1.2
0.4
0.3
5.1
5.5
6.6
89.3
90.1
90.8
2.8
0.9
0.8
12,5
14.9
17.8
April
May
June
101.9
102.6
103.0
0.7
0.7
0.4
6.1
5.6
5.0
101.6
101.9
102.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
5.5
5.8
4.8
92.6
93.9
94.3
2.0
1.4
0.4
14.4
14.7
11.5
July
August
September .
103.5
103.8
103.7
0.5
0.3
4.4
3.1
2.3
103.1
103.7
103.5
0.7
0.6
4.8
4.6
3.5
95.5
96.5
95.9
1.3
1.0
-0.6
7.0
2.4
1.1
-2.9
-3.1
-2.7
-0.4
October
November
December
.
-0.1
-0.2
104.1
104.2
104.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
2.1
1.9
2,3
104.0
104.2
104,2
0.5
0.2
0.0
2.5
1.7
2.3
95.8
95.0
94.8
-0.1
-0.8
-0.2
January
February
March
104.6
104.8
104.9
0,4
0.2
0.1
3.3
4.5
5,8
104.4
104.6
104.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
3.1
3.7
4.3
94.1
95.0
94.6
-0.7
April
May
June
105.8
106.5
107.2
.
0.9
0.7
0.7
6.4
6.2
6.2
105.6
106.1
106.4
0.9
0.5
0.3
4.7
4.6
4.1
95.6
96.0
96.9
4.6
3.4
3.4
106,8
107.0
106.8
0.4
0.2
2.9
2.7
3.2
96.6
97.2
97.1
-0.3
-
0.7
0.1
0.1
4.9
5.3
6.4
107.1
107.5
108.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
5.3
5.9
7.0
96.6
94.8
97.8
-0.5
-1.9
7.7
1.4
0.5
0.4
9.0
9.3
7.9
101.8
101.5
103.7
-0.3
7.1
109.6
110.1
110.5
4.0
2.2
1.4
111.8
112.4
112.3
1.2
0.5
4.8
2.4
2.5
104.5
r!04,9
103.0
rO.4
1988
. .
.. .
July
August
September . . . . . . .
107.9
108.0
108,1
October
November
December
108.2
108.3
109,0
0.1
0.1
0.6
110.5
110.8
111.5
1.4
0.3
0.6
-0.2
1.0
-0.4
1.1
0.4
0.9
0.6
-0.1
3.2
2.1
4.5
5.4
4.7
5.4
2.1
-2.5
1.9
11.1
9.0
14.1
1989
January
February
March
April
May
June
112.3
rl!3.2
112.8
July
August
September
112.7
112.0
112.3
0.7
rO.8
r-0.4
-0.1
-0.6
0.3
r9.3
112.2
111.4
111.9
-0.1
-0.1
:
-0.7
0.4
103.2
101.2
102,3
4.1
2.2
0.8
r-1.8
17.0
r22.4
10.9
2.8
-0.6
-2.7
0.2
-1.9
1.1
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:
OCTOBER 1989
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
^H PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month
332. Index
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1
332e. Change
over 1-month
spansl
(1982-100)
Producer price index, capital equipment
(Ann, rate,
percent)
(Percent)
333. Index
(1982-100)
333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
Producer price index, finished consumer goods
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
(1982-100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans *
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1987
0.1
1.6
1.3
1.3
102.0
102.6
102.9
0.7
0.6
0.3
4.2
4,6
4,8
0.3
0.1
0,0
0.7
1.6
2.4
103.4
103.6
103.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
3.8
2.6
3,1
0.1
0.3
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.3
103,9
103.9
104,5
0.2
0.0
0.6
1.7
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.1
2.2
2.2
1.4
104.3
104.2
103.9
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
1.4
1,4
1.0
112.8
113.1
113.2
0.5
0.3
0.1
2.5
2.9
3.2
104.6
104.6
105.0
0.7
0.0
0.4
1.9
2.7
3.7
7.0
7.0
7,0
113.4
113.7
114,0
0.2
0.3
0,3
2,7
2.8
4.5
105,3
105.6
105.8
0.3
0,3
0.2
3,7
4,3
4.4
0.7
0.3
0.4
5.6
5.1
4.5
114.3
114.7
115,7
0.3
0.3
0,9
3,9
3.7
3.9
106,5
106,8
107.3
0.7
0.3
0.5
4,0
4.2
4.6
108,6
109.0
109.5
0.0
0.4
0.5
5.4
5.8
6.2
115,6
115.8
116.2
4.6
4.8
3,1
107.4
107,8
108.2
0.1
0,4
0,4
5.7
7,2
7.4
110,8
111,3
111,9
1.2
0.5
0.5
7.3
5.4
116.9
117.4
117.5
3.1
r6.9
4.3
109.5
110,6
111.2
1.2
1.0
0.5
8.7
rlO.l
8.7
112.5
r!12.7
112,4
0.5
2.5
1.1
0.7
117.4
rl!8.2
118.7
-0.1
rO.7
rO,4
3.1
2.7
4.6
112.0
rl!3.1
112.8
0.7
4.8
1.6
2.4
118.7
119.0
120.2
0,0
0.3
1.0
100.0
0.8
0.7
0.2
4,3
5,4
6,2
111.2
111.0
111,1
100.3
100.8
101.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
5.5
5.1
5.3
111.4
111.5
111.5
,,..
101.8
102,3
102.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
5.7
5.2
4.6
111.6
111.9
112.4
October . . . . . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December
103.1
103.4
103.6
0.5
0.3
0.2
5.0
4.5
4.7
112.0
112.1
112.2
January
February .
March . , . , . , ,
104.3
104.6
105.0
0.7
0,3
0.4
5.1
5.7
6.9
April . . . , ,
May
June
105.7
106.3
107.1
0.7
0.6
0.8
July
August
September
107.9
108,2
108.6
October
November
•December . . . . . . .
January
February
March
99,1
99,8
.. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
0.4
-0.2
-0,4
1988
-0.1
0.2
0.3
1989
January , , , . , , . , .
February
March ,
April
May
June
July
August
September
....
112.2
111,9
112,3
rO.2
r-0.3
-0.2
-0,3
0-4
0.6
0.4
0.1
r4.2
112.1
111.5
112,5
rl.O
r-0,3
-0.6
-0.5
0.9
October
November
December
See note on page 80,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
'Changes arc centered within the spans:
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
OCTOBER 1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
|Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagncultural payrolls1
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current-dollar earnings
340. Index
340c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2
(1977-100)
(Percent)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
341. Index
(1977-100)
(Percent)
Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345. Index
(1977-100)
345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann, rate,
percent)
1987
1.4
171.3
171.9
172.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
2.6
2.0
2.1
94.7
94.7
94.4
-0.7
-2.4
-3.1
-3.3
186 '.2
-0.3
172.5
172.9
172.9
0.3
0.2
0.1
2.3
2.6
2.9
94,1
94.0
93.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-2.1
-2.0
-1.5
187^4
July
August
September
173.2
174.1
174.6
0.2
0.5
0.3
2.8
3.3
3.3
93.7
93.8
93.7
-0.1
-1.3
-0.5
-0.1
m'.'e
October
November
December
174.9
175.6
175.7
0.2
0.4
0.1
4.0
3.0
2.8
93.5
93.8
93.7
-0.2
January
February
March
176.6
176.7
177.0
0.5
0.1
0.2
3.6
3.5
3.3
93.8
93.7
93.5
April
May
June
178.0
178.7
178.6
0.6
0.4
3.1
3.2
3.8
93.6
93.6
93.2
July
August
September
179.3
179.5
180.3
4,0
3.0
93.2
92.9
93.0
October
November
December
181.5
181.4
plSl.7
-0.1
pO.2
93.1
92,9
-0.2
p92.7
p-0.2
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
January
February
March
... ,
April
May
June
'
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
2.6
4.'6
4.8
7.2
0.2
-0.1
-0.4
3*.S
192!9
iia
s'.i
1988
-0.1
0.4
0.1
0.5
P 3.5
0.6
(3)
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
2.6
0.1
-0.5
-1.0
-1.2
-1.8
-1.1
-1.0
-1.3
0.2
p-1.0
0.1
(3)
5!2
194^2
5.8
196 '.9
i'.9
5.3
199^5
5*.5
5.9
202*.3
5*.4
1989
January
February
March
..
5.1
204.' 8
(NA)
5.6
April
May
June
207 '.6
July
August
September . . . .
(NA)
(NA)
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter,
3
This series has been discontinued by the source agency.
OCTOBER 1989
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector— Continued
Year
and
month
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions
348. Average
first-year
changes ©
Real compensation
346. Index
(1977-100)
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans *
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons, business sector
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
370. Index
(1977-100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector
(1977-100)
1987
January
February
March
1.1
-3.8
100 ".8
2.1
0.5
109 '.9
-6*.7
l'.9
107 '.7
zis
108 i 6
3i6
109is
iia
iiois
lie
niii
iio
noi?
oie
niie
i.'i
nzii
,
April
May
June
100 '.3
July .
August . . . .
September . . . .
106! 5
4.1
-2.1
October
November
December
3.9
-6'.4
1.1
ois
3.4
2.5
3.4
2.1
nii?
2.6
3.9
2.9
2.4
\.2
10K4
iioi?
112i5
,
1988
January
February
March
-1.0
.
101 '.1
April
May . . ,
June
ioi!i
July
August
September
loiis
October
November
December
loii9
1.2
iio
ois
0.6
1.8
113*.3
3.1
2,4
-2.0
mi?
3.4
3.1
3.2
113.*6
6i?
1.4
2.7
1.8
3.5
0.2
2.1
113.*6
6i2
1989
January
February
March
101 is
April
May
June
loiie
July . . . .
August
September
-0.4
-0.8
(NA)
(NA)
p3.2
1.0
p3.4
113*.9
(NA)
p5.0
p3.9
p3.4
niii
(NA)
niis
1.3
112.'6
(NA)
P 2.7
(NA)
(NA)
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pae«s 49 and 50.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
OCTOBER 1989
KCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Q| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Civilian
employment
Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed
444. Males
20 years
and over
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
445. Females
20 years
and over
446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers
448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
(Percent)
452. Females
20 years
and over
453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
January
February
March
118,873
119,119
119,263
110,969
111,271
111,459
7,904
7,848
7,804
3,649
3,594
3,532
2,864
2,822
2,870
1,391
1,432
1,402
6,430
6,382
6,231
5,187
5,326
5,168
78.2
78.1
78.1
55.7
55.8
55.9
54.2
54.8
54.4
April
May
June
119,394
120,102
119,647
111,789
112,524
112,287
7,605
7,578
7,360
3,482
3,443
3,440
2,757
2,708
2,640
1,366
1,427
1,280
6,110
6,039
6,043
5,122
5,098
4,979
78.1
78.2
78.0
56.0
56.3
56.2
54,5
55.6
53.6
July
August
September
119,884
120,245
120,008
112,613
113,019
112,896
7,271
7,226
7,112
3,340
3,259
3,165
2,674
2,662
2,666
1,257
1,305
1,261
5,895
5,814
5,664
5,103
5,046
5,050
78.0
77.9
77.9
56.3
56.4
56.3
53.8
56.0
54.1
October
November
December
120,429
120,527
120,701
113,225
113,460
113,740
7,204
7,067
6,961
3,194
3,114
3,061
2,620
2,602
2,605
1,390
1,351
1,295
5,756
5,655
5,562
5,142
5,287
4,979
78.0
78.0
77.8
56,4
56.4
56.5
55.1
54.8
55.4
January
February
March
121,035
121,165
120,936
114,055
114,273
114,129
6,980
6,892
6,807
3,106
3,053
3,064
2,568
2,596
2,450
1,306
1,243
1,293
5,550
5,526
5,473
5,113
5,101
5,087
77.9
78.1
77.9
56,6
56.7
56.6
55.9
55.0
54.1
April
May
June
121,328
121,203
131,524
114,660
114,403
115,001
6,668
6,800
6,523
2,941
3,065
2,889
2,471
2,492
2,485
1,256
1,243
1,149
5,338
5,413
5,163
4,953
4,676
5,073
78.1
78.0
77.8
56.6
56,5
56.6
54.5
54.5
56.2
July
August
September
121,658
122,000
121,984
115,034
115,203
115,370
6,624
6,797
6,614
2,832
3,077
2,905
2,565
2,467
2,456
1,227
1,253
1,253
5,215
5,491
5,293
5,102
4,972
4,862
77.8
78.0
77.9
56.7
56.8
56.8
55.9
56.1
56.0
October
November
December
122,091
122,510
122,563
115,573
115,947
116,009
6,518
6,563
6,554
2,911
2,996
2,953
2,413
2,445
2,422
1,194
1,122
1,179
5,176
5,273
5,317
4,727
4,819
5,033
77.8
77.8
77.8
57.0
57.4
57,3
55,2
55.1
55.2
January
February
March
123,428
123,181
123,264
116,711
116,853
117,136
6,716
6,328
6,128
2,938
2,853
2,688
2,455
2,306
2,367
1,323
1,168
1,073
5,295
5,024
5,028
4,837
4,697
4,709
78.1
78.1
78.1
57.7
57.5
57.5
56.0
54.8
54.9
April
May
June
123,659
123,610
124,102
117,113
117,215
117,541
6,546
6,395
6,561
2,952
2,705
2,737
2,448
2,480
2,570
1,146
1,210
1,254
5,247
5,104
5,131
4,930
4,609
4,801
78.3
77.9
78.2
57.6
57.7
57.7
55.7
55.8
56,6
July
August
September
123,956
124,018
124,040
117,459
117,597
117,456
6,497
6,421
6,584
2,734
2,790
3,038
2,613
2,468
2,353
1,150
1,163
1,193
5,218
5,183
5,255
4,505
4,553
4,612
77.9
77.8
77.9
57.9
57.8
57,8
55.2
56.5
55.6
1987
,,
•
1988
...
=
1989
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
ItCII OCTOBER 1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Q| DEFENSE INDICATORS
Q| RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local government l
Federal Government i
Year
and
month
500. Surplus
or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
Advance measures of defense activity
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
510. Surplus
or deficit
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
(Mil. dol.)
525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Mann
facturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
1987
January
February
March
-199ii
860 '.7
l,06C)!i
46*.3
637!i
59C)!8
25,911
34,669
28,986
11,166
13,121
12,272
196,585
199,440
199,308
6,129
7,650
9,769
April
May
June
-13?!?
926.2
i.oeiia
6CL4
658!9
598 is
33,794
32,801
30,475
11,359
11,782
12,104
200,411
202,504
204,177
11,265
9,907
10,128
-143'.9
92JL5
i.oesis
s6is
659! 6
609 !i
31,867
32,619
34,065
12,913
13,595
13,683
207,148
209,556
215,074
9,882
9,179
9,102
-leiii
937 '.4
i.ioii?
48!6
668 '.9
620 '.9
29,233
30,794
24,532
10,555
9,353
11,820
212,355
212,086
205,974
9,864
9,824
7,036
January
February
March
-isi'.s
944 '.7
i.ogeis
SO'.S
684*. 8
634! 6
31,157
33,243
31,595
8,289
11,821
12,096
208,366
210,637
212,335
9,223
8,480
8,065
April
May .
June
-niii
973^2
1,114!?
52'.4
699 '.2
646! 7
33,172
32,294
36,167
15,035
13,958
13,721
210,520
214,223
219,469
9,871
8,215
13,829
July . . . . . . .
August
September
-122is
97?!3
I,099i8
49is
706.6
656i2
29,691
29,004
27,652
17,438
9,758
10,980
219,349
219,239
220,134
6,995
8,037
7,472
October
November
December
-i67ie
i,i62ii
45*.7
716'.5
67C)!8
31,118
34,783
31,522
(NA)
994 '.6
217,720
222,122
223,937
10,695
8,391
10,407
January
February . . , „ , . ,
March
-147is
I,036i2
1,183!?
4a!s
732 '.6
683 '.8
31,580
30,058
30,859
226,193
224,553
219,856
6,815
8,159
10,461
April
May
June
-145.4
1,053.2
1,198.6
47 is
742.6
695 il
31,395
30,056
29,495
222,194
221,337
216,120
8,551
7,572
8,938
(NA)
(NA)
p706'.3
r30,996
p28,530
220,028
p217,S09
r7,6Z6
r7,927
p!2,387
. ..
July
August
September
.
October
November
December
1988
....,
1989
July
August
September
October . .
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
pl,19li6
(NA)
(NA)
,,,
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.
90
OCTOBER 1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
J) I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Q DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equip*
ment
(1977 = 100)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military
(Mil. dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
570. Employment, defense
products industries
(Thous.)
Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty @
(Thous.)
578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP
(Percent)
1987
January
February
March
187.3
188.9
188.6
31,122
31,233
31,169
158,833
157,779
158,084
22,243
24,096
23,259
8,755
8,704
9,464
1,590
1,589
1,590
2,179
2,172
2,168
1,060
1,066
1,069
288 i 6
6^6
April
May
June
189.2
189.3
188.6
31,597
31,624
31,709
160,358
160,898
161,816
23,593
22,760
24,046
8,991
9,367
9,210
1,583
1,584
1,577
2,158
2,153
2,151
1,070
1,070
1,076
294! 6
e!e
188.7
189.1
189.8
32,174
32,553
32,668
162,605
162,741
162,316
22,858
24,340
21,513
9,093
9,043
9,527
1,577
1,576
1,574
2,158
2,167
2,174
1,078
1,080
1,088
300 !2
e!e
190.3
188.7
188.9
33,171
33,936
33,504
163,247
164,130
161,860
25,816
21,276
26,329
8,933
8,941
9,306
1,574
1,572
1,569
2,172
2,174
2,167
1,086
1,085
1,082
296^8
eii
January
February
March
190.6
191.0
189.9
33,656
33,859
33,945
162,206
162,089
160,841
20,786
23,441
23,752
8,877
8,597
9,313
1,570
1,566
1,558
2,166
2,162
2,142
1,076
1,071
1,067
297A
e',3
April
May
June
187.9
185.5
184.6
34,069
34,695
35,328
162,171
162,009
167,117
26,548
20,130
23,765
8,541
8,377
8,721
1,559
1,557
1,556
2,108
2,100
2,104
1,060
1,054
1,045
298 .'6
6.'2
July
August
September
184.9
184.9
184.5
34,799
34,071
34,839
165,449
164,451
163,092
24,243
23,321
20,636
8,663
9,035
8,830
1,550
1,548
1,542
2,111
2,122
2,138
1,034
1,039
1,048
296 !i
6.'6
184.0
182.2
180.5
35,410
35,351
35,373
165,356
165,087
165,397
27,027
24,443
26,357
8,431
8,660
10,097
1,536
1,534
1,530
2,130
2,130
2,122
1,044
1,044
1,048
300 '.5
e!6
January
February
March
180.0
179.3
178.7
35,777
35,793
36,416
163,482
163,238
165,250
20,843
23,426
26,053
8,730
8,403
8,449
1,530
1,529
1,529
2,124
2,123
2,116
1,054
1,058
1,058
298.7
ELS
April
May
June
179.9
180.7
181.1
36,362
36,786
36,776
165,168
164,043
163,756
21,035
24,087
26,829
8,633
8,697
9,225
1,528
1,530
1,526
2,110
2,111
2,115
1,061
1,063
1,059
301.' 3
S*.8
181.7
rlSl.O
p!80.5
r37,100
p37,447
r!63,189
r!62,179
pl65,242
21,068
r23,926
p29,634
r8,193
r8,937
p9,324
1,522
pi, 514
r2,117
2,126
p2,130
1,055
pi, 066
p306\2
P'S'.'B
Julv
August
September
..
October
November
December
1988
. ,.
October
November
December
1989
July
August
September
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
OCTOBER 1989
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments
604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
612. General imports
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products
(Mil. dol )
(Mil. dol.)
1987
January
February
March
18,377
19,371
19,981
1,926
2,047
2,157
3,452
4,404
4,098
32,189
31,186
32,247
2,269
3,598
3,513
4,882
6,322
5,329
April
May
Jung
20,250
20,111
21,381
2,234
2,410
2,445
4,122
4,176
4,338
32,317
33,484
34,141
2,842
3,685
3,375
5,516
6,093
5,823
August
, ,
September . . . . , „ .
July .
22,472
20,845
21,669
2,956
2,520
2,625
4,260
4,420
4,717
34,927
34,506
34,015
4,125
4,574
3,439
5,800
6,008
5,307
October
November
December
22,136
23,327
24,187
2,593
2,409
2,472
4,407
5,371
5,371
36,253
35,219
35,758
3,780
3,292
3,158
6,776
6,342
6,560
24,669
24,839
26,762
2,759
2,893
3,033
5,040
5,177
5,442
35,165
36,325
36,338
3,541
3,536
3,225
5,441
5,659
5,677
April .
May .
June
26,040
27,446
26,706
3,027
3,382
3,120
5,288
5,374
5,353
35,360
36,137
37,304
3,226
3,802
3,060
6,220
5,507
5,351
July . , . . ,
August
September
26,612
27,478
27,578
3,311
3,357
3,493
5,457
5,778
5,876
35,074
37,623
36,750
3,122
3,360
2,927
5,378
5,888
6,354
October
November
December
27,889
27,538
28,864
3,090
2,909
2,995
5,698
5,709
6,393
37,121
38,087
39,668
2,718
2,645
3,347
6,589
6,291
6,946
28,980
28,839
30,064
3,143
3,201
3,666
5,338
5,990
6,162
37,877
38,220
39,549
3,619
3,326
4,095
5,627
6,326
6,282
30,758
30,455
31,285
3,387
3,618
3,638
6,150
4,937
6,382
39,045
40,534
39,293
4,730
4,680
4,001
5,869
5,770
5,289
r30,468
30,408
(NA)
3,657
3,139
(NA)
6,371
6,290
(NA)
r38,709
41,180
(NA)
4,130
4,227
(NA)
5,621
5,426
(NA)
1988
January ,
February
March
,,
,.
1989
January
February
March .
April
May
June
.
July
August
September
October
November
December . . . . : . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56,
92
OCTOBER 1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted1
Goods and 'services
Year
and
month
668. Exports
667. Balance
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
669. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
622. Balance
(Mil. dol.)
618. Exports
Income on investment
620. Imports
(Mil. dol,)
651. U.S. investment abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
652. Foreign
investment in
the United States
(Mil. do',)
1987
January
February
March
-31,190
104,315
135,505
-38,661
57,255
95,916
25, ii?
19,755
April
May
June
-35,555
105,694
141,249
-39,819
60,015
99,834
22,744
20,554
July
August
September
-36,687
110,922
147,609
-40,606
64,297
104,903
23,578
21,904
October
November
December
-26,055
125,211
151,266
-40,4i4
68,699
109, 113
33,265
20,207
-28,682
127, si6
156,492
-33,446
76,447
109,893
26,750
23,955
-30,586
126,800
157,386
-31,4li
78,4?i
109,882
23,148
25,613
July
August
September
-28,964
131,573
160,537
-30,339
80,604
110,943
24,720
27,3i6
October
November
December
-23,659
143,626
167,285
-33,019
83,729
115,748
33,159
28,670
-26,864
142,169
169,033
-28,378
87,9i9
116,297
26,830
29,246
p-27,894
p!45,865
p!73,759
p-27,718
p90,866
pl!8,584
p26,932
p31,947
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
..
1989
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
October
November , .
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
OCTOBER 1989
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q| INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United States,
index of industrial production
Year
and
month
(1977-100)
721. OECD l
European countries, index of
industrial
production
(1977=100)
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1977-100)
726. France,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1977c=iOO)
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
(1977-1GQ)
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
Revised 2
1987
126.2
127.1
127.4
113
116
116
142.2
141.5
143.6
112
113
113
105
109
110
110
113
112
114.2
117.6
120.2
124.9
126.4
127.1
April
May
June
127.4
128.2
129.1
116
117
116
142.5
140.2
145.5
116
117
114
109
110
111
113
114
112
117.9
122.3
118.7
127.9
127.6
128.9
July
August
September
130.6
131.2
131.0
117
116
117
146.7
146.7
149.0
114
117
116
111
111
111
115
116
114
118.1
113.2
117.5
130.5
132.0
133.2
132.5
133.2
133.9
119
119
118
151.4
152.0
153.7
117
117
116
111
112
112
117
116
117
122.7
121.2
116.5
134.3
135.3
135.6
January
February . , . . , . . .
March
134,4
134.4
134.7
120
119
120
154.4
158.5
157.9
117
117
117
112
112
113
11?
115
117
126.9
121.5
124.1
136.0
136,2
137.4
April
May .
June . ,
135.4
136.1
136.5
120
120
r!21
157.8
156.4
159.2
117
118
120
112
113
115
117
118
119
124.8
123.1
125.4
137.5
138. B
139.0
July
August
September
138.0
138.5
138.6
122
123
122
157.9
162.3
162.5
118
122
121
116
116
117
119
119
120
128.5
126.0
124.1
138.6
140.6
140.2
October
November
December
139.4
139.9
140.4
r!22
124
125
160.6
165.2
165.7
121
120
122
113
118
117
119
120
119
127.6
129.1
132.2
139.0
138.2
139.2
140.8
140.5
140.7
125
124
124
167.4
164.4
173.2
122
122
122
118
117
117
118
118
118
127.9
130.3
126.9
138.8
139.4
139.1
141.7
141.6
r!42.Q
r!26
123
126
167,0
168.0
r!71,4
126
120
125
120
118
p!20
118
116
rl!6
127.0
125.2
r!28.9
140.2
140.7
140.5
142.0
142.4
p!42.3
p!28
(NA)
r!67.1
p!71.8
(NA)
128
p!26
(NA)
(NA)
pl!8
(NA)
p!30,9
(NA)
p!40.2
(NA)
January
February
March
.,.
,...
.,
October
November
December
1988
1989
January
February
March . ,
April
May
June
,
July
August
September
October
November
December . ,
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
'Qrgunigatitm for Economic Cooperation and Development.
See "New Features and Changas far This Issue," page iii.
2
94
OCTOBER 1989
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Japan
United' States
Year
and
month
320. Index ©
(1982-84-100)
320c. Change .
over 6-month
spans *
(Ann. rate,
percent)
738. Index ©
(1982-84=100)
West Germany
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index ©
(1982-84 = 100)
France
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
736. Index ©
(1982-84-100)
United Kingdom
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index ©
(1982-84=100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1987
January
February
March
111.2
111.6
112.1
5.0
5.1
5.3
103.9
103.9
104.3
2.5
0.6
1.5
104.6
104.7
104.7
1.3
1.5
1.2
119.6
119.8
120.0
4.1
3.9
3.4
117,5
118.0
118.2
5.4
3.8
2,6
April
May
June
112.7
113.1
113.5
4.4
4.5
4.0
105.3
105.5
105.3
2.1
3.3
2.1
105.0
105.0
105.2
1.7
1,7
1.0
120,6
120.8
121.1
2.2
2.5
2.5
119,6
119.7
119.7
2.2
2.0
2.7
July
August
September
113.8
114.4
115.0
3.8
3.7
3.6
104.7
104.8
105.8
-0.9
1.0
-0.2
105.2
105.1
104.9
0.6
0.4
0.8
121.3
121.6
121,7
2.3
2.3
2.8
119.6
120.0
120.3
3.7
4.6
4.8
October
November
December
115.3
115.4
115.4
3.9
3.3
3.7
105.8
105.3
105.1
0,0
-1.7
-0.6
105.0
105.0
105.2
-0.2
0.0
1.0
122.0
122.1
122.2
2.3
2.2
2.5
120.9
121.5
121.4
4.2
4.0
4.0
January
February
March
115.7
116.0
116.5
3.9
4.0
4.4
104.8
104.6
105.0
1.3
-0.2
0.4
105.4
105.6
105.7
1.1
1.7
1,3
122.4
122.6
123.0
2.6
2.8
2.3
121,4
121.8
122.3
3,8
3.8
4.5
April
May
June
117.1
117.5
118.0
4.4
4.7
4.9
105.6
105.7
105.5
1.0
2.3
1.3
106.0
106.2
106.3
2.1
2.3
1.9
123.6
123.9
124.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
124.3
124.8
125.2
5.7
7.7
8.3.
July
August
September
118.5
119.0
119.8
4.8
4.5
4.5
105.3
105.6
106.4
1.3
2.5
1.9
106.3
106.3
106.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
124.7
125.0
125.3
3.3
3.3
3.7
125.4
126.8
127.4
9.5
8.9
8.7
October
November
December
120.2
120.3
120.5
4.8
4.9
5.1
106.9
106.5
106.2
1.7
-0.2
0.9
106.4
106.7
106.9
3.2
3.2
3.8
125.6
125.8
126.0
3.4
3.2
3,5
128.7
129.2
129.6
8.8
7.9
7.2
January ,
February
March
121.1
121.6
122.3
5.6
6.2
5.9
106.0
105.7
106.2
3.0
3.4
4.0
108.1
108.4
108.6
4.6
4.5
4.3
126.5
126.8
127.2
3.9
4.2
3.7
130,4
131.4
131.9
6.9
7.9
8.3
April
May
June
123.1
123.8
124.1
5.2
4,3
3.6
108.1
108.7
108.6
4.4
4.4
(NA)
109.2
109.5
109.6
2.8
2.2
(NA)
128.0
128.5
128.7
3.3
3,5
(NA)
134.3
135.1
135.6
8.1
7.0
7.9
July
August
September
124.4
124.6
125.0
1988
1989
108.4
108.3
(NA)
109.5
109,4
(NA)
129.0
129,2
(NA)
135.7
136.1
137.0
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
OCTOBER 1989
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q
CONSUMER PRICES - Continued
Canada
Italy
Year
and
month
737. Index ©
(1982-84-100)
Q| STOCK PRICES
737c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
733. Index ©
(1982-84-100)
733c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices @
(1967 = 100) (1967 = 100)
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©
746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
1987
January .
February
March ,
131.6
132.1
132,6
4.2
4.8
4.5
115.8
116.3
116.8
4.2
4.6
4.4
287.7
305.6
318.1
1,493.7
1,577.6
1,676.0
302.0
278.9
282.4
642.3
660.4
708,3
840.5
916.9
972.3
526.4
502.8
501.8
378.4
395,4
422.5
April
May
June
133,0
133.5
133.9
4.8
6.0
6.5
117.3
118.0
118.4
5.1
5.2
4.7
314.7
314.5
327.8
1,857.4
1,937.7
1,966.6
297.5
295.7
306.9
726.4
703.9
664.8
956.1
1 S 040.9
1,097.5
533.0
519.3
507.5
420.0
416,4
422,6
July
August
September
134.3
134.7
135.6
6.7
6.3
5.6
119,2
119.3
119.3
4.5
3.8
3.9
337.3
358.3
346.6
1,807.8
1,903.4
1,889.0
320.4
333.3
322.8
692.1
705.0
730.1
1,154.7
1,101.1
1,121.0
494.6
459.7
451.7
455.4
451.3
440.9
October
..
November
,,,
December , , .
136.9
137.2
137.5
5.3
3.9
3.6
119.7
120.2
120.3
3.2
2.9
3.5
304.8
266.5
262.1
1,833.0
1,677.8
1,655.2
299.4
229.2
219.4
633.1
508.5
484.9
1,027.7
794.1
810.4
449.8
366.8
361.1
341.2
336.5
357.1
January
February
March
138.2
138,5
139.2
3,4
3.5
4.0
120.6
121.0
121.6
3.5
4.4
4.2
272.5
280.8
289.1
1,656.1
1,797.8
1,910.6
208.4
218.4
232.4
465.0
501.8
510.3
863.3
858.5
888.0
348.9
334.0
377.1
345.4
362 . 1
374.4
April . . .
May
June
139,6
140.0
140.5
4.5
6.0
5,8
122.0
122.8
123.0
4.4
5.2
4.7
285.7
278.6
294.4
1,961.2
1,963.0
1,979.2
230.8
225.4
240.6
523.6
546.1
609.5
879.6
878.4
908.7
383.2
359.7
372.7
377.4
367.1
388.9
July
August
September
140.9
141.5
142.2
6.0
7.1
7.0
123.7
124.1
124.2
4.8
3.6
3.6
292.7
286.9
291.5
1,972.0
1,988,3
1,924.2
247.6
248.1
254.8
632.4
618.7
636,1
932.0
908.5
872.4
399.7
416.5
392.9
381.6
371.3
371.0
October
November
December . . . . . . .
143.3
144.5
145.0
6.9
6.7
7.0
124.8
125.1
125.1
4.4
4.2
4.6
301.8
294.8
300.8
1,923.3
2,008.1
2,084.8
266.3
266.5
273.7
682.9
698.4
746.7
908.5
899.5
865.1
431.9
432.9
436.4
383.7
372.3
383.0
146.1
147,3
148.0
7.8
6.9
7.4
125.7
126.6
127.2
4.5
6.2
7.2
310.5
319.8
318.4
2,207.6
2,237.4
2,188.6
284.2
284.2
287.3
799.8
814.5
810.8
926.6
1,007.8
1,029.5
433.8
411.7
409,6
408.7
403.6
404.3
149,0
149.6
150.3
7,0
6.4
6.0
127.6
128.9
129.6
6.4
5.8
6.1
328.8
341.5
352.2
2,231.0
2,284.3
2,241.9
295.9
295.9
309.7
838.9
847.3
885.0
1,023.5
1,053.6
1,065.6
426.8
422.2
447.0
409.9
418.9
425.0
361.1
377.0
377.8
2,287.9
r2,383.6
rp2,370.8
313.4
328.6
(NA)
890.5
904.1
rp947.5
<NA)
476.9
p505.7
rp510.3
448.7
453.1
445.5
p380.2
p2,414.6
p482.4
P448.8
1988
....
1989
January
February
March
April
May
June . .
, ..
July
August
September
150.7
150.9
151.6
130.4
130,5
130,7
October , , . . . . . , .
November
December . . . . . . .
P945.7
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
96
OCTOBER 1989
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected leading index components
92. Change in manufacturers'
unfilled orders in 1982 dollars,
durable goods industries 1
Year
and
month
(Bil. dol.)
83. Index of
consumer expectations 1 2
62. Change in index of labor
cost per unit of output,
manufacturing 1
®
Smoothed3
Actual
Selected lagging index components
Smoothed3
Actual
(Bil. dol.)
(1st Q
1966=100}
120. Change in consumer price
index for services 1
Smoothed3
Actual
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
5.2
4.1
4.1
3.9
4.0
4.0
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1987
January
February
March
-3.66
-1.17
0.78
-0.79
-1.01
-0.90
80.9
81.6
83.3
11.0
-5.1
2.6
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3
April
May
June
4.20
3.89
3.58
-0.15
0.84
1.78
84.7
80.6
80.8
-9.1
-2.6
-2.6
-1.4
-2.1
-2.6
5.2
4.1
2.0
4.2
4.4
4.1
July
August
September
4.90
2.04
83,. 3
85.8
84.2
-8.4
-3.7
-0.12
2.75
3.23
3.05
-2. ,6
0.1
4.1
6.2
3.0
3.9
4.2
4.1
October
November
December
2.40
1.37
1.16
2.87
2.55
2.18
80.4
72.7
76.7
-7.6
0.7
1.2
0.7
5.1
5.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.4
2.58
2.24
2,02
1.95
1.38
80.9
81.9
85.2
0.8
1.4
3.4
6.0
5.0
4.0
4.7
4.9
4.8
1.25
0.99
1.59
82.4
87.3
85.7
-9.1
-3.4
2.9
1.8
1.8
3.9
4.9
3.9
4.7
4.7
4.5
82.3
88.8
89.5
-6.7
-0.9
0.7
0.3
3.9
5.9
3.9
4.4
4.5
4.5
2.4
2.2
1.0
5.3
5.8
5.8
4.6
4.9
5.2
0.4
1.0
3.5
4,8
5.7
5.7
5.3
5.4
5.5
2.6
1.6
2.8
5.7
3.7
5,2
5.1
4.8
6.6
3.7
1.8
4.9
4.8
4.4
9.2
13.0
1.8
-4.3
1988
January . . . . : , . . .
February
March
April
May
June .
.-2.01
2.86
-0.10
6.59
3.6
4.5
13.9
7.2
July
August
September
-0.20
1.90
2.24
2.11
October
November
December
2.81
0.43
6.58
2.12
1.91
2.41
87.0
86.3
85.5
13.8
-8.2
-5.9
2.56
1.06
1.88
2.72
2.68
2.55
89.9
88.8
87.6
17.7
3.80
2.91
2.64
2.31
2.20
83.2
80.1
82.0
r2.81
r-2.00
pi. 59
r2.22
rl.66
pi. 32
85.5
80.3
88.6
1.32
3.02
7.2
-0.2
1989
January
February
March
April
May
June
-0.20
.
. . .
July
August
September
1.8
7,2
-15.0
0.0
rO.9
4.4
r3.5
p2.6
rl.O
rl.l
rl.5
pi. 8
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13 and 15.
'These series reached high values before 1987: series 92 actual (8.31), series 92 smoothed (4.40), and series 83 (97.7) in March 1984;
series 62 actual (29.6) in March 1986 and smoothed (5.2) in March 1985; and series 120 actual (8.4) in July 1984 and smoothed (5.8) in September
1984.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's
Survey
Research Center.
3
This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
OCTOBER 1989
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
910.
19S4.
1957]
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1964!
1965.
1966.
1968*.
19?o!
1971,
1972.
1973.
1974,
1975.
1976,
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1986.
41,4
48.2
51.1
§0.0
46.5
53.8
55. 0
54,2
59.9
62.2
66.1
71,7
75.8
73.3
78.0
83.1
79.0
79,8
88.1
97.3
95.5
78.0
93.0
98.5
101.9
105.3
101.2
102,8
97.2
106,8
123. 1
121. S
128,1
136.8
139.3
41,8
49.1
50,7
49.8
46.1
54.5
34,3
54,6
60.6
62,8
66.6
71.7
76,0
72.9
78.7
82,9
77,9
80.8
89,0
97.8
94,4
78.0
94,0
99,3
102.9
105.5
101.5
101.5
98.9
109.1
123.4
121.8
129.0
137.6
141.0
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
1964*.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981,
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988,
12.2
0.0
42.4
49.9
51.0
49 .1
46.7
55.3
53.4
56.1
60.3
63.8
67.5
72.0
76.7
43,0
50.2
50,2
49,1
47.6
55.4
53.5
56.8
59.7
64.3
68.0
72.6
75.9
43,6
50.3
49.9
49.0
48,5
55.4
53.5
57,4
59.1
64,2
68.2
72.5
75.4
44.1
50.8
50,3
48.7
49.7
55.2
53.7
57.5
59.5
64.1
69.0
72.8
75.1
44.3
50.6
50.4
48.6
50.6
54.7
53.9
58.4
59.6
64.3
69.5
72.7
74.4
44.9
51.0
50.2
47.9
51.5
54.8
54.0
58.0
60.0
64.8
70,1
73.3
74.0
79.2
82.7
77,2
81,8
89.9
97*8
94.9
78.7
94,4
99.7
103.0
106.1
98.0
102.0
98.3
111,4
123.3
122.4
130.1
138.1
141.4
78.5
83.1
76,3
82,8
90.3
97.6
93.1
81.2
94.4
100.3
104.1
104.5
95.3
103.5
99,1
113.5
123.3
121.9
131.4
138.3
'
79.0
82.9
76.7
83.2
90.8
97.6
92.7
83.1
95.3
100.8
104.3
105.1
93.6
103.7
99.4
115.3
123.0
122.7
131.3
139.2
79.2
82.3
76.9
83.3
91.4
97.5
91.1
84.3
96.1
101.3
104.5
104.6
94,9
102.7
98.8
116.9
121.8
123.9
132.2
140.6
79,6
81. 8
76.6
83.3
92.5
97.4
90.0
85.7
97.3
101.1
104.6
103.1
96.9
102.0
99.4
116.2
121.3
124,3
132.7
142.0
'
79.2
81.7
76.6
83.4
93.6
96.6
87.7
86.9
97.4
101.5
105.0
102.7
98.9
102.1
98.8
118.4
120.9
125.3
132.8
143,3
4,
80.2
81.9
76.7
83.9
94,5
97,0
85.3
88.2
97.7
101,9
106.1
103.0
101.1
100.0
100.6
119.6
120,6
126.0
133.0
142.9
-4.6
5.9
45.8
50.9
50.4
47.5
52.1
54.5
53.8
58.8
60.2
65,1
70.3
74.1
73.3
76.9
81.4
81.1
76.5
84.6
95.0
96.9
83.4
89.2
97.5
101.8
107 .1
101.6
102.5
98,5
101.8
121,1
119.4
126.1
134.3
142.3
*
46.7
51,2
50.6
47.0
53.0
54,0
53.7
59,4
61.2
65.4
70.8
74.9
73,1
77.2
81.9
80.5
76,9
85.4
95.9
97,2
81.1
90.1
98.0
102.3
106.3
100.8
104.1
97.8
103.0
121.9
120.1
126.2
135.3
140.3
Dec.
IQ
II Q
= 3.7
-15.5
36.9
-3.6
-13.1
-1.1
7.4
0.0
-7.J
26.9
16.3
12.6
3.8
= 13.0
0.0
13.7
10,2
12.4
2.3
3.6
= 14,2
23.1
29,1
3.0
3.0
8.8
6.5
11.3
5.2
4.9
1.2
7,0
= 34.4
6.1
= 7,0
28.4
•1.0
6.1
10,7
= 20.5
45.5
0.0
7.5
13,6
= 16.7
-28. 5
19.1
10.2
25.1
0.0
-4.8
12.7
S ,9
-1 7
-13.'
IS.
5,
46.6
51.1
50,5
47.0
52.7
54.6
53.7
59.4
61.0
65.4
70.8
74.9
78.7
87,0
96.8
95.8
79.1
90.6
98.8
103.1
105.4
100,6
102.8
97.8
104.7
122.1
120.3
127.7
137.2
139,7
72.9
78.6
82.9
78,0
80.8
89.0
97.6
94.9
78.2
93.8
99.2
102,6
105.6
100.2
102.1
98.1
109.1
123.3
121.9
129.1
137.5
73.7
78.9
82. 8
76,6
83.1
90.8
97.6
92.3
82.9
95.3
100.8
104.3
104,7
94.6
103.3
99.1
115.2
122.7
122.8
131.6
139.4
76,2
79.7
81.8
76,6
83.5
93,5
97.0
87.7
36.9
97.5
101.5
105.2
102.9
99.0
101.4
99.6
118.7
120.9
125.2
132.8
142.7
.
77.4
81.9
80.6
77.4
85.7
95,9
96.6
81.2
90.0
98.1
102,4
106.3
101.0
103.1
98,0
103.2
121.7
119.9
126.7
135.6
140.8
4 ,
6,0
16.2
ao.2
12.6
24.2
-4.7
-16.0
23,6
2.2
2.2
-7.9
4.9
- .6
4.9
-11.9
-4.6
-9.7
-2,9
-6.9
-7.3
-3.9
2.6
-8.5
1,7
-10.4
- .4
- .4
17.9
-10,5
-2.2
13.0
30,2
0,0
10.6
19.4
-12.2
13.4
0.7
0.8
15.2
-4.1
3,8
4.9
4.4
-2.2
13.8
9.7
10.9
10.4
-6.3
5.7
3.5
13.9
-10.8
5,7
8.9
13.8
-3.2
3.7
7.0
11.8
-4.8
10.8
8,8
5.2
7.2
5.9
7.4
2.4
-7.5
3.9
11.7
4,6
-7.2
5.0
6.5
13.2
-6.3
6.2
-7.1
-4.6
0.0
-5.9
-1.5
0.0
1.5
16.2
3.0
1.6
7.4
19.5
-11.1
-3.1
10.5
7.6
-8.S
6.5
12.0
6.0
-4.4
32.0
25.0
5,9
2.2
-14.1
16.7
0.3
-1,7
-1.1
7.7
5.5
-1.9
-1.0
3.0
11.0
-8.0
11.8
15,8
5.1
-28.3
19.5
-1.2
-23.7
14.5
3.8
-28.5
12.8
-16.0
-25,9
6.9
4.2
-3.4
-1.4
-1.2
-14.8
32.1
3.8
0.2
2.7
-7.8
-2.7
3.0
28,1
6.6
6.1
-5.1
-10.0
3.5
2.3
21.3
-1.8
-22.9
19.9
7,0
2.5
6.4
-5.6
28.8
-9.6
8,2
9.7
-4.5
-26.0
11.4
4.7
4.9
-2.1
-8.9
8.1
-8.3
17.4
8.8
7.0
2.4
7.9
~n A
5.7
13.3
-8,5
A ft
-9.4
-26.7
18,2
-2.3
1.2
-15.9
28.4
-7.9
7.5
4,9
4.7
-4.6
27.8
1,2
-7.0
4.8
13,3
3.6
30,2
-22,1
24.2
-1.2
11.9
-15.1
17.9
-16,6
15.3
6.1
-8.6
-9.1
20.4
-8.2
15.1
9.8
-9.7
-2.4
-14.0
0.0
21.7
-4.8
3.9
4.6
12.6
-3.9
10.1
0.9
11. «
-2.9
6.9
1.8
-3,3
-11,3
1.0
7,3
1.0
2.0
15.2
7,2
5.3
-5.0
8. 7
2.7
5.3
7,6
7 9
22.7
1.6
6.9
19.3
15.0
7.2
-8.2
13,7
-6.7
-2.2
-4.2
20,1
-4.9
-15.6
910C. C H A N G E IN COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 11 LEAD I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 3-MONTH S P A N S
BUT)
{
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957,
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961,
1962,
1963,
1964.
1963.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973,
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983,
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988,
4.9
22.2
5.9
20.9
10.0
14.9
12.0
9.3
16.1
4.9
17.0
7.4
= 6.2
-7.4
-7.0
-0,9
= 7.0
1.7
-5.5
13.7
= 4,0
18.3
2.2
6.9
8.3
10,9
7.5
-11.1
14,8
2.7
10.7
8.7
-5.8
17.1
-5.8
9.9
8,7
6.0
-1.1
8,0
5.0
= 12.3
21.9
18.0
•=-12,4
13,3
4,8
10.8
8.8
5,2
7.1
-1.1
5.8
2.0
= 14,1
16,7
14.0
4.8
= 2,2
2.6
0,0
-13,0
15,9
10.4
-11.0
= 14.4
18.5
5.4
= 3.7
= 2,0
17.9
3.7
= 3.0
2,7
11. a
= 9.6
4.6
as. 9
S.0
5.8
9.2
7.0
2.0
28*.2
4,0
7.2
7,7
2.6
5.0
-3.2
28.3
12,5
5,7
2 .4
-8.7
27.1
16.3
0.8
0.8
-9.5
0.8
15.2
-9.5
5.8
2.3
10,4
= 5 .2
1 .9
3.0
11.8
-0.7
0.0
3.8
4.2
6 .2
3.8
0,7
9.4
4.6
6.4
4.5
0.6
4.5
7.3
3.9
1.5
0.0
-6.0
12.4
8.3
10.9
0.0
-1.9
-1.5
7.5
6.8
14.4
5.7
-6.1
1.6
2.4
10.1
16.7
1.0
-5.7
-0.5
1.0
12.9
12,3
5.1
- .9
- .0
.9
1 .3
8.2
9.4
-3.4
-0.5
6.4
11.3
= 9.7
17.4
6.2
7.5
-7.0
28.8
= 15,1
31.6
-19.9
19.6
-2 .1
1 .8
-26.3
17.4
6.2
6.6
3,2
-3.0
-U5
-5.5
-S.3
-8.8
-5.7
-7.2
-9.0
-1.6
-1.1
2.8
8.1
27.6
0.7
1.3
10,7
9.0
2.0
24.7
-1.3
3.0
7.3
4.7
2.3
2.8
2.1
21.3
-4.8
5.0
6.6
7,4
7,6
-5,7
1.2
17.6
-6.3
8.1
4.0
11.1
2.8
-6.0
-2,4
11.2
»6.7
8.7
4.6
12.3
6.6
-10.1
-13.0
10.0
10.2
-6.1
5.9
4.9
0.8
2.8
-15.8
18.1
12,4
-2.6
2.9
7.7
-8.1
0.0
-8.5
17,3
8.6
-1.0
5.5
13.2
-8.7
4.0
-5.2
21.1
6.8
7.2
6.5
7.7
-8.2
5.7
-3.3
4,9
27.2
3.2
4.8
9.2,
4.7
5.0
e.'o
-12.7
24.1
23.5
4.8
-12.5
20.4
24.2
2.4
-10.4
11.3
3.0
7.7
14.0
6.3
-7.1
11.7
5.3
10.8
-0,
14.
-6.
5,
2.5
8.5
3.4
3.4
9.S
4.1
-0.2
9.
12.
6.
7.
11.
3.7
14,3
-5.7
1.6
9.9
10.2
7,5
10.9
-8.0
10.8
15.6
10.1
5.8
8.6
-10.0
18.4
17.6
10.0
-1.5
5.5
2.3
-13.1
18.2
14.1
9.
2.
-2.
-2.
7.
8.
12.4
5.2
-3.7
-0.7
3.4
12.8
5.
11.
-7,
10.
14.
10.1
-23.5
18.2
-8,1
0.3
14.2
-11.
28.
8.
-23.1
18.9
5.6
2,7
-25.5
15.0
3.8
2.8
-6.8
26.2
-9.7
5.0
10.3
-5.6
7.2
4.0
6.6
2.9
-5.9
10.3
-9.8
18.8
9.3
1.2
5.0
9.5
-8.3
3.2
-26.1
11.3
NOTE: Series 910 contains r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1984. The percent changes are shown for the f i r s t time since before the overall revision of
the composite Index early this year. Percent changes are centered w i t h i n the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month
changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
23.5
2,9
0.0
-10.4
15.1
= 2.2
13.8
11.8
5.0
2.8
7.5
9.6
-3*9
7.0
2.4
6,7
-0.8
13.8
3.2
1.6
-7,4
25.2
-1.5
7 .0
11 .2
7.0
-26.9
15.6
14,8
8.6
-1.5
-7.4
14.3
5,1
-2.5
11,8
3.5
6,4
8.6
6.4
-3.4
7.6
5.7
-2.4
-1.1
10.8
11.3
-0.8
-16,8
15.5
9.5
4.4
2.
-4,
-A!
7,
17.0
-1.3
6.3
7.6
2.2
4 2
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
12,7
3,2
1.6
-4.0
27.7
20, a
44.0
50.3
50.5
48.6
49.3
54.8
53.8
57.2
60.2
64.2
68.7
73.0
75.0
75.0
79.8
82.0
77.2
83.3
92.3
97,2
89.0
84. S
96.2
101.0
104.6
103.6
99.2
101.2
100.0
116,2
121.7
124.2
132.3
140.1
142,8
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
2.4
-2.4
24,0
-10.3
4.6
20.5
2.0
3.8
9.1
-1.6
-10.6
-1 .2
-13.6
21.9
Annual
SPANS
10.1
-7.1
34.1
-4.2
4.6
2.1
8.4
-1,9
15,0
5.1
-4.7
-6,9
-2.4
2S.2
0.0
0.0
13.4
-11.4
-1.9
3.6
-1.6
-7.6
15.7
3.1
-8,3
3.2
1.5
8.2
-1.2
-18.9
18.8
10.6
6.1
2.3
-5.6
18.0
-11.0
-7,0
18,0
-11.1
12.4
8.5
0.0
44.4
50,8
50.3
48.4
SO. 6
54.9
53.9
58.0
59.7
64.4
69.5
72.9
19,5
-17.3
25.7
2.2
2.3
16.0
-11.3
9.8
9.3
10.5
-11.8
12.2
7.9
= 2.
6.
6.
6.
0,
-5.
32.
12.
6.
2.
7.
-19.
2.
3.7
20.8
-2.9
8.2
-0.9
43.0
50.1
50.4
49.1
47.6
55.4
53.5
56.8
59.7
64.1
67.9
72.4
26.3
14,7
= 2!s
22.4
= 4.3
11, ft
0.0
10.2
9.5
8,8
3.2
8.6
-1.3
12.3
-16.5
18,1
16.1
41.7
49.0
50.9
49.8
46.4
54.5
54.2
54,7
60.4
62.8
66.6
71.8
47.4
51.3
50.4
46.6
52.9
55.2
53.7
59.9
61.7
65.6
71.2
75.6
72.8
78,1
82.3
2 .9
18.1
2.4
-9.3
5.3
O.O
0,0
16.3
-5.8
9.9
9.3
-1.
-3.
5.
-10,
IV Q
17.5
18.4
4.8
= 7.0
10.9
19,1
-18.2
19.1
0.0
10.0
7.5
6.9
IS.2
=4.8
7.9
-2.9
= 10.3
15.9
12 .8
III Q
5.6
12.0
=9.0
= 4,7
-9.8
16,8
-14.2
9.2
15,0
12.2
9.5
0.0
3,2
-6.4
11,3
-2.9
-15.3
16.1
13,0
i <;.?
Nov.
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
42.0
49.7
50.9
49.5
46.5
55.3
53.4
55.4
60,6
63.3
67.0
72.1
76.9
TK
910C. C H A N G E IN COMPOSITE I N D E X 0F 11 L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 1-MON
( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T )
1954,
1955.
19S6,
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
Oct.
COMPOSITE I W D E X OF 11 L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R S
(1982-100)
-4.1
2.0
1,8
21.2
-4.1
5.4
6.0
7,7
4.2
14.8
8.2
-1.6
-7.2
14.6
3.1
-1.4
11.0
3.6
6.5
8.4
6.0
-3.0
6.6
6.1
-3.0
-1.4
10.8
11.4
-0,4
-17,1
15.6
8.0
4.1
3.3
-4.5
4.0
-5.2
7.6
17.0
-1.3
5.6
7.2
2,7
3.8
(OCTOBER 1989)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
May
45,3
48,4
52.0
53.2
47.3
52.3
54.2
51.1
55.7
57.3
60.4
65,9
72.2
74.7
78.4
83.1
83.3
81.5
86.6
95.1
95.2
84.4
91.0
96,6
103.5
112 .0
109.5
108.0
102.6
98.4
110,7
115,7
117.7
45.1
49.0
52.4
52.6
46.6
53.2
54.2
51.4
56.0
57,7
61.1
66.2
72.3
74.8
78,7
83.2
83.0
81.8
87.5
95.0
94.7
84.8
91.7
97.2
106.0
110.2
44.8
49.6
52.1
52.4
46.7
53.7
53.9
52.0
56 .0
58.0
61.5
66.6
72.7
74.8
79.2
83.4
82,7
82.2
87.8
95.4
95.2
84.8
92.0
97.8
106.4
111.4
45.0
49.8
52.1
52.5
47.3
53,9
53,6
52.7
56.0
58.1
61.6
67.1
73.5
75.0
79.8
83.8
82.4
82 .4
87.6
95.8
95.2
85.1
92.2
98.6
107.2
111.1
107.8
102,0
99.1
111.0
116.0
119.2
107.4
101.7
100.2
111.4
116.0
118.4
107,9
100.5
101.4
112.5
115.7
118.2
126,7
126.9
127.2
128,2
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct. 1 Nov. Dec.
IQ
II Q
Hi Q
IV Q
Annual
9
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
( 1 9 8 2 = 100)
45.9
47.5
52.0
53.4
47.9
51.6
54.5
50.8
55.3
57.1
60.3
65.1
71.3
74,7
78.1
82.4
83,3
81.3
85.7
95.2
95.6
85.9
90.8
95.7
102.1
110.9
110.5
108.2
103.0
97.6
110.2
115.2
117.8
45.9
47.2
52.0
52.9
48.9
51.1
54.7
51.0
54.7
56.6
59.7
64.7
70.9
75.0
77.5
82.0
83.5
81.5
85.4
94.4
96.3
87.2
89.8
95.3
101.1
110.5
111 .0
108.5
102.1
97.9
109.1
114.7
117.9
119.3
125.2
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957. . .
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962..,
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969.,,
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978. . .
1979...
1980. . .
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987 ...
1988...
920C.
126.0
CHA N G E I N
44.8
50.4
50.3
52.5
48.0
53.5
53.3
52.8
56.3
58.4
62.2
67.9
73.6
75.2
80.2
84.4
82.5
82.1
88.2
96.2
95.2
85.5
92.6
99.3
107 .4
111.0
104.1
108.4
99.6
102.3
113.0
115.4
118.2
122.4
128.6
46 .6
51.9
53.2
49.6
50.2
53,9
51.2
55.1
56.6
59.6
45.7
47.7
52.0
53.2
48.0
51.7
54.5
51.0
55.2
57.0
45.0
49.5
52.2
52.5
46.9
53,6
53,9
52.0
56.0
57.9
44.9
50,5
51.5
52.3
48.5
52.3
53.0
53.2
56.4
58.5
98.3
91.5
87.7
94.1
101,3
110.1
110.6
108.1
105.1
97.2
106,2
114.2
116.9
119.4
124.6
130.3
70.5
74.5
77.9
81.9
84.4
80.9
84.2
94.1
97.2
88.6
88.3
95.2
101.8
110.9
110.4
108.5
103.8
97.0
10? .6
114.9
117.7
120.7
126.1
131.1
65.2
71.5
74.8
78.0
82.5
83.4
81.4
85.9
94.9
95.7
85.8
90.5
95.9
102.2
111.1
110.3
108,2
102.6
98.0
110.0
115.2
117.8
120.4
126.0
66.6
72,8
74.9
79.2
83.5
82.7
82.1
87.6
95.4
95.0
84.9
92.0
97.9
106 ,5
110.9
105.6
107.7
101.4
100.2
111.6
115 .9
118.6
121.3
127.4
68.1
73.8
75.6
80.3
84.6
82.2
82.2
89.3
96.2
94.6
86.5
92.8
99.8
108.0
110.7
104.9
108.1
98.9
102.8
113.2
116.0
118.7
122,8
128.9
44.8
50.3
51.9
52.5
48.5
51.8
53.0
53.3
56.5
58.4
62.6
68.0
73.8
75.8
80.2
84.6
82.1
81.8
45,0
50.8
52.4
51.9
48.9
51.7
52,7
53.4
56.4
58.8
63.0
68.3
73.9
75.8
80.5
84.8
81.9
82.6
45.3
51.2
52.9
51.3
49.3
51.4
52.6
54.1
56.6
59.2
62.4
69.1
74.4
75.6
81.0
85.1
80.1
82.7
46.2
51.6
52.7
50.6
50.5
52.1
51.8
54.8
56.9
59,0
63.5
69.8
74.3
76.9
81.7
84.4
79.4
83.4
96.1
94.5
86.7
92.7
99.6
108.0
110.8
104.9
108.3
98.9
102.1
113.1
116.2
118.5
123.0
129.0
96.4
94.1
87.2
93.0
100.4
108.5
110.4
105.6
107.5
98.2
104.1
113.5
116.3
119,4
123.1
129.0
97.5
93.7
87.7
92,7
100.9
109.5
110.7
107,1
106,3
97.3
105.4
113.4
116.3
119.0
124.9
130.4
C O M P O S I T E I N D E X O F 4 R O U G H L Y C O I N C I D E N T I K E I C A T O R S OVER 1-MOKTH
1956 . . ,
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. . .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
197 1 ...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982 .. .
1983...
1984...
1985.,.
1986...
1987...
1988. ..
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
-9.9
16.6
2.3
-6.6
-15.7
23.8
19.3
-4.6
-8.4
0.0
2.0
1.9
7.0
8.4
-6.0
0,0
7.9
0.0
12.0
-22.0
12.4
-4,3
-4.6
14.0
, 11.1
12.7
7.7
7.0
-4.7
9.7
-14.6
25.3
0.0
-4.4
-14.0
17.6
-6.4
7.3
9.0
4.3
2.0
15.8
16,2
0,0
4.7
-5.2
15.9
9.6
-12.7
-16.4
22.7
0.0
7.3
6.7
8.7
14.8
5.6
1.7
1.6
4,7
-7.7
15.7
-6.7
-4.5
2.6
11.9
-6.4
14.9
0.0
6 .4
8.1
7.5
6.8
0.0
7.9
5.5
4,9
0.0
2.3
16.6
4.6
-6.5
17.4
0.0
2 .1
2.0
9.4
14.0
3.3
9.5
-5.2
15.5
-34.4
0.0
19.3
-8.6
-6.5
2.3
0.0
-2.4
45,6
0.0
13.2
-32.1
-6.5
12.0
5.5
12.6
12.2
-12.9
10.4
-2.3
-6,6
2,3
8.3
9.9
12.1
-13.0
10.3
-6.7
-2.3
16.9
26.6
9,8
-4.4
-15.2
33.5
17.6
-16.8
16.7
10.9
7.2
12.0
-21.3
-6.9
50.3
-13.0
6.8
-8.2
16.6
0.8
0.3
-17.2
17.9
2.9
-0.6
-2.5
12,2
1,0
-5.0
0.9
13.1
-4.3
13.2
0.1
8.6
7,8
-4.3
14.3
-14.3
-6,§
5.5
6.4
12,3
15.3
1.6
3.2
6.2
0.0
8.0
1.8
3.3
10.0
0.0
8.5
7.9
5.4
1.6
0.0
4.6
8.5
-10.8
15.0
8.4
-3.1
7.7
-4.0
23.3
12.9
-1.6
22.7
10.9
12.9
22.9
12.7
3.3
16.8
3.0
5.1
5.6
8.5
10.1
1.2
2.8
5.7
8.3
7.5
7.5
1.6
7 .4
5.0
9.4
7.5
2.2
4.4
3.6
-12.1
9.3
18.5
3.9
-10,6
-17.4
22 .4
1.3
-7.9
-4.2
6.7
0.0
-18,0
11.7
18,1
-2. 1
2.1
-13.1
-8.2
-2.8
-2.9
4.3
10.7
-8.4
-16.5
14.2
5.2
12.5
4.4
-5.3
-3.3
11.1
-3.6
0.0
3,0
13.4
-1.3
-4.9
-19,1
2.7
11.9
17 .8
12.6
-10.3
-2.2
-4.6
10.3
-4,2
4.5
13.2
-1.3
-6.1
5.8
9.6
7.7
33.2
-17.7
-20.7
-2.2
-6.8
8.9
-4.3
6.0
4.2
5.2
6.5
0.0
4.0
7.7
4.6
13.9
-22.0
-4.4
-3.5
14,2
-4.3
3,0
-2,7
5.1
0.0
4.3
2.6
10,3
9.4
-3.2
-9.8
5.7
-13.3
15.4
1.5
-4.3
8.5
5.1
0,0
5.8
5.3
8.9
2.3
-1.1
-2.3
5.7
-10.2
11.2
-5.7
-4.3
17.6
-J.2
-2.9
12.4
11.3
3.8
-23.4
1.5
20.3
14,6
-10.0
10.6
20.0
10.3
25.2
12.1
15.2
-12.6
-5.0
3.1
12.1
4.4
-4.3
4.5
4.9
3.0
18.2
1 .3
3.7
7.1
4.0
10.1
7,1
-3.8
6.1
0.0
19.7
4.9
8.5
15.0
6.1
-17.7
13.1
6.1
3.4
5.4
8.6
-2.1
9.6
-1.1
-8.1
-2.3
-4.2
8.3
-8.5
-8.2
26.2
5.4
-1.0
18.5
5.3
-1.0
0.0
3.2
16.4
1.0
0.0
-7.8
1.0
-3.1
-2.0
3.0
-3.1
0.0
9.3
8.6
3,1
6.0
1 .0
9,5
1.0
0.0
3,3
18.4
-12,6
-10.5
16.1
-1.1
0,0
-3.9
19.0
13,8
-1.1
11.8
-12,7
-1.2
9.5
8.8
6.4
4.1
-2,8
-0.9
-2.1
4.5
-13.9
-2.4
17.0
7.6
8.5
13,9
15.4
7.6
4.3
-3.0
-1 .8
-3.8
6.1
12.2
2.9
0.0
1.8
2.2
-2 .3
-17.5
-0,3
-7.9
12.8
6.7
0.0
2.2
1.7
4.9
-2.6
12.1
0,8
-5 .2
0.0
12.8
-2.6
11.9
-15.1
-0.8
12.6
2.3
0,0
5.8
-1.5
0.8
16,3
-13.4
0.0
4.5
13.1
15.0
17.9
-8.6
-4.8
1.5
15,3
8.7
2.3
-4,5
14,2
-15.4
-8.8
11.3
-14.8
-13.7
1 .5
.3
- .8
1 .7
-16.6
11. 1
18.1
-10.9
13.4
-17.4
15.4
28,3
-11.6
4.5
1.1
-18,2
14.8
6.1
-1 .7
-4.4
1.0
10.8
-5.1
11.4
-4.2
13.9
-14.5
-6.1
8.7
-15.9
14.7
16.2
-10.4
9,9
,2
.9
5.6
10.6
3.4
15.6
10.8
4.8
8.1
9.5
5.7
7 .9
9.2
4,4
6,0
7.8
.9
.7
-0.9
-12.5
8.1
17.1
9.5
-12.1
4.7
6.2
7.0
8.0
-0.7
12.8
-11,3
-6,7
17.1
3.9
2.4
3.1
5.3
4.1
4.1
11.6
7.1
-1.9
-4.8
8.0
18.4
3.4
-21.4
5.1
9.8
5.7
9.1
0.0
11.4
-13,1
-4.8
14.1
5.0
4.9
4,4
10.1
6
.7
6.7
10.4
5,0
-7.3
7.2
13.7
12.8
-4.8
-25.0
9.9
11,7
0.8
3,7
1,1
5,3
-14.9
2,5
14.8
4.7
0.7
5.1
5.2
-4.2
4.8
11.2
5,6
-8.3
-16.9
12.1
7.1
10,3
1.9
-5.3
-1.3
-4.2
4.2
11.7
3,6
2,5
4.2
4.0
4
.0
1 .4
7.0
4.7
-3.2
3.5
6.0
3.0
0,1
0.6
4.9
8.8
12.8
0.5
-15.7
-0,4
-7.3
12.5
6.2
0.2
0,2
2.3
4.7
4.0
4.3
4.7
-5.5
0.7
12. 1
3.7
-4.5
10.1
2.3
7.2
6.4
-1.9
5.3
-1.9
-9.4
10.5
3.7
2.0
2.4
6.6
4.7
4.4
10,7
11.8
3.1
9.3
6.6
-3.4
-3.4
9,9
16.1
2.7
-19.5
6.6
9.2
4.5
6,9
0.1
9,8
-13,1
-3.0
15,3
4.5
4,3
2.6
'j. 5
5,1
920C.
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968. . .
1969...
1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1 9 85 ...
1986...
1987...
1988...
1988...
CHANGE IN COMPOSITE
-8.4
16.4
0.8
0.0
-17.3
17.8
2,2
-0.8
-6.8
16.1
3. 1
-2.2
-17.5
17.5
-9.2
18.9
0.8
-7.3
-9.7
17.3
3.2
9.8
1.
9.
10.
8.
2.
6.4
3.5
-5.1
9.9
11.5
9.6
-10.5
-22.3
5.0
5.5
8.3
10.0
1.1
2.6
6.0
-5.1
3.0
11.9
4,3
-8,0
-17,7
8.0
9.7
6.5
8.2
5.7
8.2
11.3
2.2
4.9
7 .4
10.4
3.6
2.8
7.3
5.4
2.9
4.9
9.4
10.2
2.1
5.6
1.3
8.1
-1.1
6.3
6.0
-2.4
1.5
10.2
2.6
-6.5
-10.6.
8.1
0.5
5.8
4.9
-2.9
4.5
10.2
0.8
-1.7
-5.0
1.6
7.3
3.4
-4.3
4,5
4.7
3,0
0,0
3.4
2.2
7,8
5.9
-2.4
1.5
3.2
5.1
2.1
3.3
7.0
3.2
2.9
-0.4
0.4
-7.8
1.7
15.9
3.5
3.1
5.5
4.6
6.0
6.8
4.0
-3.2
-1.8
- .5
.9
1 .0
.8
8.2
20.8
-1.1
-12.4
-2.6
-0,4
.0
.2
.6
.5
.2
.5
9,1
17.9
1.8
-17.8
-2.9
-5.0
11.1
4.4
2.8
2.1
0,7
3.9
8.5
15.1
-3.2
-17.7
-0,4
-7.9
12.8
6.7
0.0
1.7
1.7
4.8
4.8
8.9
5.4
2.9
-11.7
2.2
-9,1
13.6
7.4
-2.1
-3,3
4.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.1
5.9
-2.9
-1.9
7.5
3.0
-2.9
9.3
3.1
7.6
6.2
-2.1
-1.1
3.4
-10.6
7.8
6.2
0.7
0,3
6.1
5.8
5,8
4.3
3.6
4.9
-2.4
1 .0
12.4
2.5
-4.5
10.2
3.5
7.5
4.9
-2.5
5.1
-1.5
-8.8
11.1
3.6
2 .1
4. 1
5.4
2.5
2.5
2. 1
4.1
3.4
-11.1
3.0
16.3
5.5
-6.2
10.7
0.4
6.6
8.1
-1.1
12.0
-7.5
-8,9
12.7
1.4
3.2
2.7
8.4
5.7
5.7
1.9
13.1
: .6
1.0
1.0
4.4
4.4
NOTE: Series 920 contains revisions beginning with 1984. The percent changes are shown for the first time since before the overall revision of
the composite index early this year. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month
changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
1.2
11.6
4,0
-6.4
2.6
9.3
-2.4
1.3
12,5
2.6
15.3
9.0
6.6
= 16.5
12.3
20.4
-10.7
13.5
1.6
5.8
11.8
13.5
3.4
12.1
7.2
-1.7
-2.7
8,1
18.5
4.1
10,4
3,5
7.6
5,0
-2.5
5.2
-1.3
-8.8
11.7
3,6
2 .2
4.2
5.4
2.5
5.2
10.3
5.7
9.2
0.0
11.6
-13.1
-4,7
14.2
5.1
5,0
4,7
10.5
6,8
0.3
8.1
7,0
9.3
= 0.1
-0.9
-4.1
-6.3
11.2
6.9
2.5
2.8
4.9
4.1
•=4,7
7.9
2.9
S.4
8.8
9.2
5.8
4. a
5.2
3.2
-3,6
4.2
12 ,0
3,5
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-10.6
11.7
3. 1
5.4
-19.7
9.0
19.7
-7,5
i!o
1.9
45,4
49.6
52,2
52.3
48,3
52.5
53.3
52.7
56,1
58.2
61.9
67.4
73.1
75.5
79.8
83.8
82.1
82.3
88.9
96.0
94.2
86.3
92.3
98.7
106,7
110,8
107.2
107.3
100.0
101.9
112.2
116 .0
118.7
122.4
128. 2
SPANS
'
1954...
1955...
46,0
51,6
52.9
50.5
50.0
52.5
51.9
54.7
56.7
59.3
63.5
69.8
74.4
76.8
81.5
84.6
80.1
83.4
92.9
97 ,7
91.3
87.9
94.0
101.3
110.2
110.6
107,9
105.1
97.2
106.4
114.2
117.0
119.7
125.2
130.6
0.9
11.1
2.4
-5.9
2 .8
6.8
-=3.9
7.1
3.4
4.8
3.2
?.6
6.0
3.9
5,7
2.8
-4.1
4.7
11,4
3,7
-8,1
0.1
7.2
6.9
9.1
0.2
-1,5
-4,2
-6.0
10,6
6.5
2.5
2.0
4.6
4,6
(OCTOBER 1989)
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
19S4.
1955.
195?!
1958.
W9.
I960,
1961,
19&s!
1964,
1965,
1966,
1967.
1968,
1969.
H?0,
1971,
1972,
1973.
1974,
1975,
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.
SO, 2
45.4
52.4
§8.2
61,6
54.8
63,4
64.5
62.2
64.9
68.2
71.1
76,2
82.2
82.4
87.6
93.2
89.3
85.4
87.6
97.7
102.5
88.0
86,9
92,5
98.8
108.3
101.2
104,9
91.9
94.0
105,5
110,8
112.1
113.4
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
45.5
50.8
57.6
61.5
54.8
65.3
63.8
61.3
64.3
67.3
70,6
74.8
81.2
82.7
86.0
92.1
91.3
87.1
86.5
94.9
101.9
88.0
87.2
90.7
96,3
106.1
97.4
105,3
97,1
91,6
105,1
109,7
112.2
111,8
115.0
45.4
SI.9
58.0
62.2
54.4
65.2
64.3
61.1
64.5
68.0
70.3
75.5
82.3
82.2
86.2
92.2
90.9
86.5
86.3
95.7
102.3
87.9
86.7
91.2
97,8
107,2
98.4
104.9
95.2
92.7
105,0
109.9
111.9
112.1
116,4
45.6
52.0
57.7
62.6
55.2
64.2
64.6
61.6
64.8
68.2
70,5
76,0
82.3
82.5
86.7
92.5
89.5
86,4
86.1
97.1
103.5
88.0
86.4
91.3
98,3
107,3
101,2
104.3
93.0
93,6
105,0
110.2
110.9
111.8
116.8
49.6
45.4
52.8
58.0
60.4
55.0
64.0
64.1
62.3
65.0
68.4
71.7
76.8
82.4
82,9
88.0
93,7
88.8
85.4
88.6
97.6
101.2
87,9
87.2
92.8
99.0
109.5
100.5
103.5
91.5
95.2
105.9
111.7
111.2
113.9
47.3
46.0
55.5
58.8
56.6
57.1
65.8
62.3
63.5
65.3
69.0
73.2
79.0
82.6
84.5
90.0
92.9
86.6
86.4
91.3
99.4
94.2
86.7
88.3
93.4
101.5
111.9
1D1.6
101.6
90.4
99.5
107.0
112.0
110.8
114.6
195?.'
19S8.
1959.
I960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1966!
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970,
1971,
1972.
1973,
1974.
1975.
1976,
1977.
1978,
1979,
1980.
1981,
1982.
1983,
1984.
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.
= 11.2
"5.1
9,6
10.9
-17,6
= 8.4
-14.0
-1.8
12,3
1,9
48.8
45,6
53.4
58.2
59.7
35.2
64.7
63.6
62.5
64.9
68,7
47,8
45.4
54.6
58.5
58.5
55.6
65.0
63.0
63.0
65.1
69.0
47.4
45.9
55.8
58.9
56.2
57.0
66.0
62.3
63,4
65.3
68.7
46.7
46.7
56.1
59.0
55.0
58.6
66.4
61.6
64.0
65.6
69.2
46,5
47. C
57,7
59. C
54.2
59.6
66.4
61.C
64.
66.
68.
45,8
49.2
57.2
60,7
53.4
61.5
65.8
61.0
64,2
66,7
69.6
45.6
49.6
57.8
61.8
54.5
64.4
64.1
61.3
64.2
67,0
70.0
76.9
82.4
82.8
87.9
93.6
88.9
85.0
88,7
97.8
101,0
87.9
87,2
92.7
99.4
108,8
100.7
103,5
91.7
95.3
105,7
111.5
110.9
113.9
77,2
82.7
83.5
68.4
94.2
88.2
85,7
89.5
97.4
100,0
87.8
87.5
93.3
98.8
111.4
99.6
102.1
91.0
96.4
106.4
112.9
110.7
114.3
78.1
82,7
84.1
89,2
93.3
87.2
85,9
90.8
98.6
96,9
87.1
87.8
92.7
101.1
113.6
99,4
101.7
90.9
97.9
106.4
111.8
110.7
114.6
79.1
82.4
84.5
90.0
92.7
86.8
86.3
91.1
99.5
94.6
86,9
88.1
93.4
101,1
112.3
102,2
101.4
90.1
99.6
107.2
112.2
110.8
114.5
79.7
82.3
84.9
90.9
92.6
85.9
86.9
92.0
100.1
91.0
86.2
89.0
94.2
102.4
109.7
103.3
101.7
90.1
100.9
107.3
111.9
111.0
114.8
80.
82.
84.
91.
92,
86.
86.
93.
100.
89.
86.
89.
94.
102.
104.
103,
101,
90.4
101. £
107.5
112. C
110, 1
114,5
80.9
82.4
85.9
91.2
92.3
87,7
86 .6
92,9
100.7
88.8
86.3
89.9
95.3
103.7
101,1
103.9
99.7
91.4
103.2
107.9
111.7
110,7
115.1
81.1
82.7
86.0
91.7
91.7
87.9
86.4
94.4
102,1
88.1
86.7
90.3
96.0
105.2
98.7
IDS.7
98.6
91.4
104,3
108.6
111.0
111.7
115.2
-11.3
-2.6
4.7
-9.8
-27,1
6.8
9.9
-3.7
1.9
3.8
-19. 7
8.2
19,9
10,9
-5.8
2.2
16.1
-12.3
3,9
-22.0
-5.1
30.6
6.4
-21.6
9.1
5.7
-10,8
10,0
-9.6
14.0
29.8
8.5
-38.2
34.8
20.1
-12,5
7.9
-16.4
23.0
6.6
2.1
-22.8
39.4
7.5
-12.7
12.0
-5.1
10,2
13.3
24.1
27 .7
73.8
-27.0
6.1
0.0
-=2,6
33.2
-4.1
-5.7
6.8
18.1
-5.5
0.0
1.9
-2,6
29.3
8.7
14,5
-8.4
-1.8
9.8
-3.8
3.8
5.4
2.3
-6.0
8.0
19.1
-16.9
5,7
-14.1
0.2
11,4
4.0
-16.8
0,2
4.0
-16.0
10.6
22.3
5.7
-27.5
27.8
11.1
5,7
6.0
10.0
10.8
10.1
-5.0
11.8
3,5
8.2
3.0
10.1
0.0
0.0
-7.0
2.8
4.5
7,2
-17.0
-1.4
2.0
5.1
8.1
7.6
-5.6
3.1
6.5
13.6
0.6
6.9
11. 8
-6.5
-10.0
10.6
4.8
-1,4
-6,7
19.0
15,0
1.4
-4.1
1.3
16.9
1.4
-12.8
-0,9
5.2
11.8
11.6
-31.2
-7.0
7.1
1.1
40.0
-6,7
-24.5
12.3
0.0
3.3
2.3
16.8
-6.0
-7.6
-8.2
12.7
5.5
16.1
-3.7
17.0
-1.5
-3,8
20,0
3,5
11,3
8.4
-12.1
2.4
6.0
7.9
11.5
-34.1
10.®
-11,6
6.J
14,2
5.0
-0.1
9.4
1.1
1.8
2.7
1.5
1.6
3.0
4.5
1.4
-7.5
10.2
-1.4
15.3
4.0
16.4
-2.7
-2.5
-7.5
2.8
-2.7
21.2
-5.1
-10.4
-13.6
1.4
-13.7
0.0
-9.1
5.7
-1.4
7.1
16.6
-24,5
13.7
3.6
0.0
4.8
-41.5
2.3
-6.9
4.1
11.0
-35.8
4.7
-15.4
14.1
18.8
-2S.O
22,9
-12.5
0.0
10.8
-14.7
-4,4
-16,8
2.7
1,1
-3.2
2.2
3.2
4.6
8,1
12.9
13.2
13,0
-4.S
-21.1
15.4
-1.1
2.2
-2.
-3.
-1.1
6.5
11.4
1.0
1.1
-2.1
3.3
15.6
-3.2
4.2
5.1
4,8
4.5
10.6
7.0
8.0
10.4
14.9
O.O
9,0
11.4
-10.9
12.2
16,5
-4.3
5.9
11.3
-7.4
-3,2
9.5
6.0
5.8
12.7
-1.3
-13.0
23.0
7.7
= 11.0
0.0
7.2
17.0
-5.5
16.2
1.2
-16,2
-1.4
4,2
10.3
11.4
-4,8
-11.3
-1.4
4.2
2.8
18.9
15.8
-31.5
-9.2
4.2
5.7
4.0
11.5
-25,0
-2.7
4.2
8.7
12,5
7.5
-37.2
-9.2
13.0
7.5
5.7
-7,0
32,8
-12.3
-15.1
-8.8
14.8
8.2
16,2
-2.1
4.3
31.8
26.4
-2.4
-4.6
= 1.3
0.0
-12.9
39.6
-3.5
-10.1
0.0
-11,1
0.0
3.2
9.4
4.4
1.1
-1.0
2 . ,1
6.5
-5.1
-8.0
9 3 0 0 , GlIANQE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 7 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T )
1954.
1955.
1956,
1957,
1958.
19S9.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1HS,
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979,
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988,
-S.4
-0.9
5.5
-2.1
-13.4
5.2
-7.7
0,0
8.1
3,8
2 .4
9.4
7.6
0.S
3.0
8.1
6.2
= 8.5
-6.8
11.6
9.1
=•5.0
0.0
2.3
6.7
6.7
6.1
9.7
-5.2
-13,9
11.7
2.7
6.0
-3.5
6.6
-14,2
0.0
11.2
3.S
-17.3
e.e
3,2
= 6,0
6.0
0.6
3.0
10.0
6.5
2,0
4.9
8.1
7.6
-5.7
-3.2
16,8
-12.9
-0.9
9,1
2,1
16.2
-6.2
-8.2
= 8.3
12.5
5.4
10,2
-0.7
9.2
-16.1
10.0
21.8
5.6
-28,0
27.0
10.9
-12,0
-10.4
14.9
24.7
3.5
-26.3
32.0
8.9
-12.1
1 .2
4.4
6,3
8.9
8.8
7,5
9.2
11.9
O.O
8,5
9.9
-3,8
= 9.1
6,3
11.3
6.2
3.3
3,3
5.0
7.9
0.5
6.9
11.8
-6.6
-10.0
5.7
11.7
1.0
0.0
= 0.5
-5,5
-2.7
4.3
10.5
5.4
=1.7
4.2
1.4
8.1
3.6
-3.8
9.6
-2.3
10.9
-25.9
-3.6
-22.4
-2.7
9.4
6.9
-27 .3
17.5
-2,3
-2.2
16.9
4,2
0.7
0.4
-0,3
8.4
10.7
-34.3
6.8
-6.5
5.9
15.3
2.6
-1.8
-0.4
2.1
-17.8
0,0
17.9
2.1
-18,7
6.0
10.5
-9.0
5.2
1.3
4.8
9,9
10.4
2.
8.
7.
0.
=9.
2.
15.
= 17.3
5.4
26.6
8.6
-23.0
14,5
13.8
-11.9
-20.
-23,0
= 4.5
-31.4
-7.1
3.1
7,J>
13.5
6.1
-7.9
-6.8
19.3
5.8
2.5
-0.4
2.1
3.9
15.4
-6.0
15.7
-1.6
0.
9.
21.
-6.
-11.7
-4.3
17.7
3.5
3.7
-4.9
4.3
20.0
3.4
-3.5
1.1
1.8
46.0
48.6
57.6
60. S
§4.0
61.8
65.4
61.1
64,2
66.6
69.5
73,9
80.9
82.7
85.6
91.3
92.0
87,4
86.6
93.5
101.1
88,9
86.4
89.8
95.4
103.9
101.6
104.4
99,8
91,1
103.1
108.0
111.6
111,1
114.9
45.S
SI.6
57.8
62.1
§4.8
&4.9
64.2
61.3
64.5
67.8
70.5
75.4
81.9
82.5
86,3
92.3
90.6
86.7
86.3
93.9
102.6
88.0
86.8
91.1
97.5
106.9
99.0
164.8
95.1
92.6
10S.©
109.9
111,7
111,9
116.1
-8.9
30.4
14,5
21.6
-1.6
47,3
-12.4
1.3
8.8
5.1
7.3
-0,3
3.5
3.6
-3.7
9.B
A V E R A G E FOR
0.1
21.6
-0.5
§.6
5.8
-0.2
3.3
2.2
3.8
7.4
3.1
10,0
6.3
-0.8
3.3
3.6
-9.1
-6.6
12.0
5.8
-0.5
-1.2
4.5
10.2
g.4
12.8
-5,2
-20.8
10,1
2,8
6,1
0.1
0.4
5.9
47.1
47.9
55.9
S9.9
56.5
59.7
64.9
62.2
63.6
66.2
69.3
73.6
79.6
82.6
84.8
90.4
92.3
87.4
86,2
92.3
ieo.2
93,1
87.6
89.1
94,8
102,8
1 OS , 5
102,8
100,0
91,4
100,7
10?, 7
111.7
111.3
114,9
= 9,7
15.7
11.9
9,2
= 10,0
18,8
1.5
-4.4
5.3
5.3
3,6
7.9
8.5
0.4
5.2
6.8
= 2.9
= 6*.l
13.0
6.8
-14.2
-1.7
5.7
7.9
9.6
= 2.1
3.9
-10.4
1.0
J2.4
5.0
1.0
1.0
4.6
FRRI00
-12.8
32.0
-9.1
27.3
-8.3
36.5
-3.4
23.8
0.0
20,8
-0.9
13.2
-12.5
-0.3
-14.6
10.1
-10,1
31.9
12,8
-18.5
35.5
-1.2
-8.1
20.4
-3.6
45.9
-13.2
-1.9
16,1
4.5
44.1
-14,8
2,0
10.3
7.7
26.3
-8.8
0.7
5.3
5.2
-1.2
3.2
2.0
0.7
O.O
-11.1
4.5
6.0
1.2
-16.5
3.7
2.0
-5.0
5.9
-25,8
24.5
11.2
-12.0
17.1
-5.9
41.8
-9 .7
-2.7
8.0
7.4
5.5
-1.0
7.8
7.1
-1.0
10.1
6.1
-1.0
7.7
5.0
-1.4
1.9
3.4
9.8
8.2
1.7
4.0
1.2
6.2
13.0
0.5
8.4
7.0
5.4
6.5
-0.5
4.9
-3.0
2.3
-1.4
8.0
4,5
-5.9
-5.4
-1.4
12.6
3.5
-9.3
-6.7
-1 .4
11.9
4.9
-8,5
-7,6
5.2
12.3
7.9
4.7
-7.8
-2.5
14.6
10.0
-5.3
-7.3
5.4
11.2
4.6
=2.8
5.4
-0.8
9.0
-12.2
2.3
= 8.2
4.2
-4.0
1.9
-0.5
-1.4
0.0
-1.4
-12.7
-1.6
-26.8
-5.1
-14.3
1.3
-1.3
-0,3
7.9
11,4
-34.5
9.6
-11.6
5.9
14,2
4.9
-3.2
2.5
1.4
6.5
13.5
-25.7
7.1
-14.9
5.4
13.6
8.4
0,7
3,7
1.8
10.9
14.2
-10.3
3.9
-16.9
5.8
7.2
7,6
0,7
5.2
4.6
9.9
8.2
10.5
-5.2
-20.9
10.0
2.7
6.0
-0.4
0.4
5.7
10.8
8.6
16.5
-1.3
-19.8
10,9
1.5
4.1
-0.4
5,8
11,2
5.6
6.1
14.5
-1.1
-8.4
-8.8
14.0
3.9
6.6
-3.0
6.7
5.5
9,8
-6.6
13.1
-3.9
-4.3
18.7
4.5
-0.1
0.4
1.2
7.6
11.9
-31.5
7.8
-11.0
5.7
14.4
5.3
-1.4
1.9
1.8
10. §
10.3
5.6
= 0.9
-19.2
8.9
3.8
5.9
0.©
3.8
7.2
NOTE: Series 930 contains revisions beginning with 1984. The percent changes are shown for the first time since before the overall revision of
the composite Index early this year. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month
changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
100
Annual
A V E R A G E FOB P E R I O D
12.1
4.6
-7.0
15.1
14.4
11.6
3,0
6,0
4.2
5,3
= 14*.
= 2.
17,
2.
7.
-12.
5.
-16.6
73.1
-9.9
40.6
-16.3
45.7
-10.3
0.0
1.9
1.6
14.4
1.5
0.0
10.7
3,2
-1.4
-1,4
13,2
9.S
1K8
O.O
7.1
-13.3
5.3
5,9
6.7
13.8
18.6
-5.0
8.0
40.1
0.0
-16.1
22.5
0.0
-11.1
1.9
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
49,7
45.3
52.6
57.7
60.0
55,1
63.9
64.3
62,3
65.1
68.4
9 3 0 6 , C H A N G E IS C O M P O S I T E I N D E X OP 7 L A G G I N G I N D I C A T O R S OVER 1-M0NTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1954.
1955,
III Q
Oct.
9 3 0 . COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 7 LAGGING I N D I C A T O R S
(1982-100)
-1.4
19,3
3.1
5.4
4.3
4.?
2.9
3.2
7,0
3,3
8.5
6.1
-1.1
4.1
4.3
-7.9
-6.6
0.8
12.3
-9.6
15,2
11.6
7.4
18.'?
0.8
-4.2
5.1
3.3
3,7
7 ,5
8.4
0. 1
5.5
6.7
= 4.1
0.7
11.8
6.2
-13.8
= 1.4
5.8
7.3
9.5
= 4.5
4.7
-10.6
0.4
12.7
4.9
1.3
0.8
4.2
{OCTOBER 1989)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
92.4
104.9
98.9
92.5
79,8
93.6
85.3
79.0
88.8
87.7
88.2
90.5
92.7
90.7
94.3
93.7
89.0
91.5
100.8
107.3
97.8
85.0
103.3
109.7
110.1
111.6
101.6
107.4
99,5
106.4
115.6
109.0
105.7
109.1
110.6
92.8
106.1
97.4
91.4
79.2
94.7
83.8
80.3
89.1
88.3
87.9
91.3
93.5
90.3
93.9
94.0
88.4
92.4
101.1
106.3
97.7
84.4
103.6
110.4
110.9
113.4
98.3
108.4
100.5
108.1
114.8
108.7
104.3
109.3
110.8
June
Apr.
May
94.4
107.9
96.0
89.9
79.7
95.7
83.4
81.6
88.9
88.6
88.6
90.9
92.6
90.4
93.6
93.3
89.0
93.8
101.9
104.6
96,0
87.5
105.3
110.7
114.3
109.0
94.5
108.5
100.3
109.0
113.4
109.0
106.6
109.4
110.7
94.5
108.1
93.4
89.0
83.1
94.2
81.7
83.5
88.3
88.8
89.5
90.6
91.9
90.8
93.7
92.7
89.2
94.7
101.7
104.7
95.7
89.6
105,9
111.0
113,9
110.2
93.7
105.1
100.3
111.2
111.8
108.2
105.5
109.4
111.1
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
97,8
102 .2
90.7
86.5
90.8
84.2
80.5
87.4
88.0
87.6
89.9
91.8
91.2
92.0
93 .4
92.8
68.9
93.3
103.2
103.4
93.8
97.6
107.4
110.8
113.3
106 .8
103.8
104,2
99.2
111.7
109.6
107.7
106. 1
111,1
112.1
98.7
102 ,4
90.7
84.0
89.7
80.3
82.2
87.1
87.9
87.8
90.0
92,0
91.1
91.7
93.6
92.5
89.3
94.0
104.4
102.1
92.2
99.0
107.3
111.2
113.0
104.9
107 ,0
101.7
99.6
113.9
108.8
107 .1
107 .6
110.2
112.0
99.6
100.8
91.8
83.4
90.0
78.7
82.4
88.3
88.0
88.0
88.4
92,4
91 .6
91.4
94.2
92.4
87.7
94.9
105.9
102.7
92.0
99.7
106.3
111.2
113.7
104.3
110,0
100.9
100.2
115.1
107.9
106.0
106.1
111.7
101.8
99.4
90.9
81.4
92.8
79.9
80.6
89.7
88.2
86.8
90.3
92.5
90.3
93.6
94.8
91.5
87.3
96.4
107.8
102.7
89.4
99.8
108.5
111.1
112.6
103.2
109.9
100.2
102.1
114.6
108.8
106.4
106.7
111.2
Dec.
IQ
( 1982 = 100)
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964, ,.
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971, ,.
1972...
1973..,
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984. . ,
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...
91.4
104.0
99.2
90.9
79.4
93.2
86.3
79.1
87.9
87.2
87.5
91.0
93.0
91.2
94,1
93.6
89.6
91.3
100.0
107.8
98.6
85.1
102.0
109.7
109,3
111.8
102.5
107.2
97,3
106.5
116.1
108.7
106.4
106.4
110.4
96.4
106 .6
92,9
89.0
86.0
92.0
80.7
85.6
87.5
88.6
89.0
91,5
92.2
90.6
94,0
92.2
89.0
95,9
100.8
104.1
95,1
93.5
107.0
110.8
113,8
108.5
95.1
104.5
98.8
112.5
111.5
107 ,8
105,6
109.5
111.7
102.2
99.8
92.2
79.2
90.9
84.0
79.3
89.4
87,3
87.4
91.6
92.8
90,5
94.4
94.5
91.2
90.4
97.5
109.3
100.1
85.6
100.3
110.2
111.5
112.8
102.9
107.2 '
99.5
104.3
115.0
109.4
106.8
108.8
112.8
92.2
105.0
98.5
91.6
79.5
93.8
85.1
79.5
88.6
87.7
87.9
90.9
93.1
90.7
94.1
93.8
89,0
91.7
100.6
107 , 1
98.0
84.8
103.0
109.9
110.1
112.3
100.8
107 ,7
99.1
107 ,0
115.5
108.8
105.5
Q
95.1
107.5
94.1
89.3
82.9
94.0
81.9
83.6
88.2
88.7
89.0
91.0
92.2
90,6
93.8
92.7
89.1
94.8
101.5
104.5
95.6
90.2
106.1
110.8
114.0
109.2
94.4
106.0
99.8
110.9
112.2
108.3
105.9
97.6
103.9
89.5
86,5
89.7
84.8
81.0
87.0
87.9
87.9
90,1
92.1
91.2
91.5
93.8
92.7
89.3
94.0
103.1
102.9
93.6
97.2
107.3
111.1
113.2
106.6
103.3
103.5
99.1
112.9
109.8
107.4
106,4
111.2
112.1
IV Q
Annual
101 .2
100.0
91.6
81.3
91.2
80.9
80.8
89.1
87.8
87.4
90.1
92.6
90.8
93.1
94.5
91.7
88.5
96,3
107.7
101.8
89.0
99.9
108.3
111.3
113.0
103.5
109.0
100,2
102 ,2
114.9
108.7
106.4
107.2
111.9
112,5
96.5
104. 1
93.4
87.2
85.8
88.4
82.2
84 ,,8
88,1
87.9
89.3
91.6
91.8
91.5
94.0
92.7
89.0
94.2
103.2
104.1
94.1
93.0
106.2
110.8
112.6
107.9
101.9
104.4
100,0
111.4
111.6
107.7
106,2
110.0
111.6
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
68.2
81.8
72.7
45,5
36.4
18.2
50.0
72.7
63.6
81.8
68.2
63.6
54.5
72.7
36.4
90.9
59.1
36.4
77.3
100.0
81.8
66.6
81.8
27.3
28.8
48.5
78.8
24.3
69.7
57.6
77.3
62.1
62.1
65.1
53.0
54.5
51,5
12.1
74.2
78.8
90.9
62.1
28.8
36.4
78.8
48.5
48.5
86.4
27.3
62,1
65.1
59.1
25.8
68.2
51.5
36.3
36,4
57.6
63.6
13.6
72.7
54.5
54.5
63.6
13.6
81.8
36.4
90.9
90.9
27.3
63.6
9.1
81.8
54.5
77.3
45.5
18.2
77.3
36.4
90,9
68.2
59.1
31.8
18.2
63.6
63.6
63.6
45.5
36.4
54,5
54.5
90.9
59.1
31.8
72.7
40.9
30.3
63.6
45.5
39.4
56.1
50.0
30.3
45.5
81.8
63.6
57,6
24,3
90.9
60.6
60.6
56.1
37.9
33.3
54.6
45.5
92.4
3'4.9
60.6
45.5
40.9
22.7
40.9
31.8
68.2
53.0
54.5
90.9
90.9
90.9
36.4
0.0
100.0
27.3
36.4
90.9
81.6
68.2
90.9
90.9
9.1
90.9
90.9
0.0
63.6
81.8
72.7
31.8
0.0
81.8
63.6
72,7
54.5
31,
100.
9.
72.
81.
27 .
90.
81.
63.
45.
54.5
9.1
100.0
27,3
45.5
86.4
86.4
63.6
90.9
81.8
36.4
72.7
90.9
9.1
27 ,3
90.9
36.4
36 .4
90.9
45.5
40.9
90.9
86.4
90.9
63.6
72.7
36.4
72.7
90,9
0.0
100.0
72.7
36.4
0.0
100.0
54.5
45.5
54.5
81 .8
18.2
81.8
81 .8
36.4
81.8
72.7
36.4
77.3
77.3
63.6
59.1
0.0
81.8
27.3
45.5
63.6
90.9
50.0
72.7
72.7
18.2
59.1
54.5
90.9
31.8
18.2
45.5
81.8
27.3
54.5
54.5
77.3
72.7
72.7
68.2
63.6
36.4
86.4
9.1
72.7
86.4
72.7
90.9
72.7
63.6
90.9
68.2
90.9
63,6
90.9
54.5
86.4
68.2
63.6
36.4
36.4
36.4
81.8
36.4
72.7
72.7
81.8
63.6
50,0
63.6
54.
63.
36.
9.
72.
81.8
31.8
63 .6
72.7
9.1
81.8
45.5
72.7
50.0
63.6
63.6
40.9
63.6
31.8
18.2
77.3
68.2
27.3
54.5
54.5
45,5
90.9
45.5
63.6
72,7
59.1
45,5
45.5
45.5
54.5
9.1
68.2
54.5
40.9
90.9
54.5
54.5
86.4
18.2
72,7
63.6
72.7
18.2
72.7
50.0
31.8
54.5
50.0
54.5
40.9
90.9
36.4
45,5
81.8
18.2
50.0
59.1
45,5
13.6
86.4
59,1
22 .7
45.5
54.5
81.8
27.3
90,9
27.3
59.1
72.7
68.2
45.5
72.7
40.9
22.7
77.3
45.5
81.8
22.7
36.4
100.0
45.5
54.5
81,8
54.5
36.4
100.0
72.7
63.6
40.9
22.7
90.9
45.5
45.5
27.3
81.8
77,3
72 .7
54,5
18.2
54.5
18.2
31.8
59.1
18.2
13.6
54.5
63.6
45.5
81.8
63.6
68.2
72.7
54.5
45.5
9.1
81 .8
36.4
18.2
36.4
72.7
22.7
36.4
72.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
40.9
40.9
18.2
36.4
54.5
54.5
54.5
50.0
59.1
18.2
54.5
81.8
63.6
54.5
54.5
54.5
63.6
59.1
45.5
54.5
45.5
45.5
81.8
18.2
50.0
45.5
90.9
54.5
45.5
54.5
63.6
59.1
27.3
90.9
54.5
59.1
68.2
27,3
9,1
90,9
50.0
100.0
45.5
36.4
36.4
90.9
63.6
59.1
45.5
54.5
27.3
36.4
59.1
86.4
9.1
90.9
63,6
63.6
54.5
31,8
63.6
36,4
27,3
90,9
22.7
86.4
90.9
36.4
45.5
22.7
81.8
18.2
68.2
90.9
4.5
68.2
45.5
63.6
68.2
27,3
90.9
54.5
36.4
59.1
81.8
63.6
45.5
81.8
9.1
72.7
54.5
59.1
72.7
63.6
100.0
0.0
72.7
81 .8
45.5
63.6
59.1
63.6
54.5
36.4
81.8
81.8
72.7
31.8
68.2
54.5
45 .5
45 .5
-
III
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
96.3
107.2
87.2
89.0
88.6
89.8
80.3
86.6
87.8
88.4
90.4
92.5
91.3
90.7
94.5
92.7
89.7
94.8
101.6
103.3
94.8
95.1
107.3
111.2
113.3
108.0
99.2
104.7
98.5
113.2
111.0
107.3
105.5
110.5
112.3
950. DIFFUSION I N D E X OF 11 LEADING INDICATOR C O M P O N E N T S 2
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 1-MONTH S P A N S )
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961. ,,
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965..,
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1930...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984. . .
1985...
1986 . . .
1987,..
1988...
II Q
100.0
45.5
40.9
36.4
72.7
31.8
18.2
81.8
63.6
72.7
63.6
81.8
13.6
54.5
65.1
60.6
74,2
56.1
50.0
31.8
87.9
31.8
47.0
66.7
65.2
59.1
75.7
50.0
25.8
77.3
60,6
36.4
54.5
54.5
71,2
42.4
12.1
75.8
63.6
53.0
62.1
37,9
90.9
24.2
59.1
77.3
42.5
63.6
50.0
62.1
43.9
83.3
51.5
45.5
18.2
68.2
43,9
42.4
75.7
74.2
62.1
63.6
75.7
22,7
68.2
72.7
22.7
62.1
80,3
72.7
42.4
13.6
72.7
57.5
65.1
51.5
22,7
71.2
42.4
90.9
72.7
39,4
56.0
74.2
33.3
50.0
78.8
62.9
37.9
28.8
70.8
50,8
40.6
74.6
56.1
65.1
66.6
61.7
34.8
66.7
59,8
36.7
41.3
66.7
71,6
46.2
22.7
67,4
61.3
56,1
52.3
38.6
61.4
37.9
60.2
81.1
45.1
59.S
59.1
53.4
52.3
74.2
90.9
33.3
84.9
80.3
25.8
93.9
69.7
39.4
90.9
18.2
59.1
90.9
81.8
86.4
63.6
81.8
36.4
68.2
72.7
0.0
56.1
84.8
33.3
89.4
37.9
86,4
83.3
65.1
65.1
45.5
62.1
45.5
97.0
37,9
36.4
97.0
30.3
69.7
75.7
53,0
24,2
78.8
59.1
24.3
100.0
18.2
36.4
90.9
57.6
75.8
83.3
84,8
3.0
90.9
87.9
6.1
90.9
48.5
39.4
13.6
93.9
30.3
48.5
89.4
84.9
80.3
72,7
78.8
36.4
71.2
84.8
3.0
100.0
81.8
36.4
9.1
90.9
63.6
54.5
40.9
100.0
81.8
18.2
18.2
100.0
45.5
72.7
50.0
97.0
90.9
69.7
6.1
53,0
89.4
65.1
71.2
65.1
93.9
36.4
13.6
97.0
74.2
66.6
69.7
86.0
72.3
34,5
11.8
86.7
42,8
3B.6
91.7
52.6
78.0
78.8
70.4
32.2
71.6
73.5
19.7
37.9
84.5
87.5
43.2
8.0
72.7
18.2
100,0
81.8
36.4
77,3
81.8
36.4
50.0
72.7
27.3
90.9
77.3
45.5
63.6
100.0
36.4
36.4
12.1
36.4
50.0
100.0
66.7
56.1
72.7
72.7
54.6
27.3
30.3
54.5
100.0
27.3
72.7
56.0
74,2
78.8
ENTS3
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6-MOSTH S P A M S )
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961 .
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966 .
1967,
1968.
1969.
1970,
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974,
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982 ,
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
72.7
72.7
77.3
90.9
77.3
86 .4
90.9
54.5
9.1
36.4
90.9
36.4
77.3
63.6
86.4
90.9
63.6
81.8
36.4
59.1
72.7
9.1
100.0
100.0
81.8
0.0
36.4
90.9
63.6
72.7
36,4
9.1
45.5
36.4
100.0
81.8
45.5
77,3
72.7
31.8
18.2
9.1
54.5
81.8
54.5
100.0
22.7
90.9
81.8
63.6
63.6
45 .5
68.2
36.4
18.2
100.0
90.9
63.6
0.0
50.0
90.9
63.6
68.2
18.2
9. 1
36.4
54.5
100.0
72.7
54.5
77.3
63.6
45.5
27.3
9.1
77.3
81.8
9.1
90.9
27.3
81.8
77.3
68.2
50.0
54.5
59.1
27.3
9.1
90.9
81.8
63.6
18.2
72.7
86.4
68.2
72.7
27.3
18.2
27.3
59.1
100.0
45.5
68.2
63.6
81 .8
86 .4
27.3
18.2
90.9
54.5
18.2
90.9
36.4
81.8
72.7
45.5
40.9
63.6
72.7
27 .'3
9,1
68.2
81.8
45.5
22.7
90.9
77.3
72.7
63.6
36.4
9.1
18.2
63.6
100.0
18.2
63.6
54.5
81.8
77.3
36.4
18.2
100.0
36.4
36.4
100.0
22.7
63.6
72.7
50.0
18.2
81.8
45.5
18.2
18.2
63.6
100,0
36.4
9.1
100.0
72.7
63.6
63.6
27.3
27.3
63.6
45.5
100.0
36.4
72.7
54.5
68.2
86.4
13.6
18.2
100,0
22.7
54,5
100.0
31.8
63.6
81.8
63.6
13.6
90.9
59.1
27.3
18.2
63.6
100.0
27.3
9.1
100.0
72.7
63.6
81.8
9.1
45.5
9.1
54.5
100.0
27.3
81.6
59.1
72.7
72 .7
18.2
18.2
100.0
18.2
36.4
100.0
18.2
81.8
72.7
81.8
0.0
90.9
81.8
18.2
27,3
63.6
95.5
36.4
9.1
90.9
59.1
63.6
63.6
27.3
86.4
0.0
54.5
90.9
36.4
81.8
59.1
72.7
59.1
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1984.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1986.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1985.
100.0
63.6
0.0
100.0
9.1
36.4
81.8
72.7
77.3
86.4
81.8
0.0
90.9
90.9
0.0
45.5
81.8
90.9
40.9
0.0
86.4
68.2.
59,1
63.6
18.2
100.0
9.1
54,5
81.8
27.3
81,8
72.7
63.6
63.6
75.7
86.4
36.4
3.0
86.4
63.6
65.1
60.6
25.8
95.5
6.1'
60.6
84.8
30,3
84.8
71.2
66.6
56.1
100.0
78.8
30.3
9.1
97.0
54.!i
5 7 . (J
48.5
21.2
75.7
21,2
90,9
80.3
39.4
74,2
84,8
36.4
54.6
as. 3
70.4
63.6
62.5
24.6
52.7
23.5
64.0
91.3
40.9
72.0
71.2
62.5
61.0
(OCTOBER 1989)
2
3
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
951. D I F F U S I O N I N D E X OP 4 R O U G H L Y COI C I D E N T I N D I C A T O R
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
III
100.
100.
50.
12.
100.
100.
0.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
12.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
62.5
100.0
87.5
100.0
62,5
75.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100,0
0.0
62.5
100.0
25.0
100.0
37,5
75,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
37.5
75.0
0.0
37.5
100.0
87.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
25.0
100.0
66 .7
58,3
8.3
91.7
50.0
66.7
75.0
87.5
75.0
87.5
95.8
70.8
62.5
91.7
29.2
70.8
91.7
70.
45.
12.
91.
91.
79.
66.
62.
62.
45.
66.7
91.7
75.0
58.3
66.7
83.3
50.0
95,8
66.7
37,5
58.3
100.0
37.5
87.5
66.7
91.7
91.7
91.7
83.3
79.2
91.7
70,8
25.0
87.5
83.3
66.7
66,7
66.7
91.7
91.7
91.7
50.0
8.3
66.7
29.2
100,0
83.3
66.7
50.0
70.8
91.7
54.2
83.3
66.7
41.7
91.7
25.0
8.3
83.3
83.3
83.3
91.7
87.5
75.0
70.8
83.3
91.7
54.2
58,3
83.3
75.0
41.7
100.0
91.7
91.7
83.3
54.2
70.8
41.7
4.2
83.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
75,0
100,0
100.0
100.0
0.0
37.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75,0
100.0
0.0
50.0
100,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100,0
50,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
8.3
100.0
70.8
58.3
0.0
100.0
83,3
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
91,7
41.7
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
8.3
75.0
20.8
100.0
100.0
100,0
83.3
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
58.3
37,5
70,8
75.0
29.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
91.7
100.0
100.0
33.3
100.0
100.0
75.0
58.3
70.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
58.3
4.2
66.7
8.3
100.0
100.0
100,0
83.3
100.0
100.0
25.0
22.2
69.5
83.3
71.4
11,9
76,2
71.4
30.9
76.2
66.6
61.9
66.6
81.0
50.0
66.7
83.3
42.9
Oct.
Q
IV Q
Annual
COMPONENTS'
I P K H U E N T K1S I KG O V E R 1- MO N T H B f A N S )
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968,
1969,
1970,
1971.
1972,
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976,
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.
25.0
100,0
62.5
25.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
§0.0
25. 0
6 2 .S
75.0
62.5
87.5
100.0
12. S
75.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
62.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
25. 0
100.0
62.5
0,0
75.0
100.0
25.0
75.0
2S.O
62.5
50.0
100,0
50.0
100,0
0,0
100.0
25.0
50,0
100.0
100.0
87,5
100.0
100.0
37.5
75.0
100.0
37,5
25.0
75.0
100,0
25,0
0.0
100.0
100.0
87,5
75.0
50,0
50.0
87.5
25.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
87.5
0.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
62.5
100.0
100.0
75,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
62.5
12,5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
37.5
75.0
50.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
100. C
100. C
12. S
O.C
100. C
62.5
62.S
100. C
100, C
100. C
100. C
75, e
87.5
75. C
75. C
25. C
100. C
loo, e
50. e
25. t
75. C
100. t
100. (
100. (
O.I
O.C
75. C
2 5 . ()
100. (
75.(
75. (
100. (
50, (
75.0
50.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
75.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
50.0
75,0
100.0
75,0
75.0
62.5
100,0
50.0
25.0
100,0
75.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
07.5
0.0
37.5
62.5
100.0
75.0
75.0
25,0
75,0
100.0
75.0
87.5
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
87.5
25.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
62.5
25.0
87.5
0.0
100,0
100.0
10.0
25.0
87.5
100.0
37.5
100.0
0.0
62.5
100.0
50.0
0.0
75.0
100,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100,0
37.5
50.0
87.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
87.5
12.5
100.0
75.0
37.5
50.0
100.0
75.0
37.5
50.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
12,5
37.5
100.0
62.5
12.5
100.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6-MONTH
im.
1976,
1977.
1978,
1979,
1980.
1981.
1982,
1983,
1984,
1985.
1986,
1987.
1988.
0,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100,0
100,0
100.0
100,0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100.0
so.o
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
25.0
75. 0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100.0
7S.O
100.0
100,0
50,0
100.0
100,0
100.0
2S.O
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
0.0
75.0
50,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7S.O
100.0
100.0
25,0
100.0
50,0
50.0
0.0
100,0
50,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
75.0
100.0
100,0
12,5
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
0.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
87.5
0.0
75.0
12.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
952.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958,
1959.
1960,
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965,
1966.
1967 ,
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975*.
1976,
1978,
1979.
1980,
1981.
1982,
1983,'
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
25.0
50.0
75,0
71.4
21.4
50.0
35.7
so.Q
85. 7
57.1
42 .9
78.6
71.4
42.9
50.0
78.6
78,6
14.3
78,6
57,1
28.6
28.6
78.6
71.4
71,4
35.7
64.3
28,6
57. 1
64.3
64,3
78.6
85.7
25.0
41.7
75.0
28,6
42,9
64.3
64.3
28.6
64.3
42.9
57.1
57 ,1
71,4
57,1
64.3
71.4
57.1
50.0
28.6
85.7
50.0
35.' 7
42,9
64.3
71.4
64.3
71.4
42,9
28.6
50.0
92.9
35,7
64,3
35.7
71.4
37. S
100, C
2 5 . ()
62.5
37.5
100. (
50. (
100. (
100. (
100. ()
100. (
100. C
100. C
75. C
100. t>
100. ()
25. (
100. (
100. ()
75. ()
7 5 . C)
12.5
100. (}
100. (}
100. (
100. ()
0 . ()
7 5 . C»
2 5 . ()
100. (
100. (
100, ()
7 5 . ()
100. (
100.0
25.0
100,0
50.0
25.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
75,0
50,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50,0
0.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100,0
100.0
102
50,0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
12.5
100.0
100,0
100.0
100,0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
75,0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25,0
12,5
50,0
0.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75*0
70.8
70,8
87.5
83.3
91.7
91.7
83.3
4.2
83.3
75.0
20.8
100.0
75.0
75.6
75.0
100.0
83.3
79,2
91.7
54.2
37.5
91.7
100.0
7S.O
16.7
87.5
87,5
91.7
100.0
62.5
83.3
0.0
45.8
100.0
79.2
70.8
91.7
75.0
91.7
55.2
92.7
70,8
35.4
60,4
72.9
29,2
84.4
75.0
84.4
83.3
91.7
84,4
75.0
82,3
77.1
36, S
77.1
89.6
71.9
42.7
66,7
90.6
91.7
88.5
§8.3
56. 2
42.7
31.2
87,5
82.3
76.8
67.7
75.0
87.5
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
SPANS)
50,0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
12.5
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
loo.o
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
DIFFUSION I N D E X OF 7 LAGGING INDICATOR C O M P O N E N T S 3
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 1 - M O N T R 8 F A N S )
16.7
41.7
83.
78.
7.
71.
64.
50.
71.
57.
64.
71,
92,
35.
78,
78.
42.
25.0
75,0
100.0
85.7
14.3
85,7
85 .7
21.4
78.6
71,4
35.7
71.4
71.4
50.0
42.9
85.7
35.7
25.0
91.7
66.7
50.0
14.3
71.4
64.3
21.4
78.6
71.4
85.7
57.1
78.6
64.3
78,6
85.7
50.0
33.3
58.3
78,6
78.6
14.3
78.6
50,0
21.4
64.3
57.1
42.9
50.0
78.6
57.1
57 ,1
50,0
8.6
16.7
100,0
42,9
50.0
7.1
92.9
42.9
64.3
57.1
92.9
78.6
64.3
57.1
14.3
64,3
42.9
57.1
25.0
83,3
57,1
78.6
42.9
85.7
42.9
71.4
50,0
64.3
64.3
64.3
57,1
64,3
57,1
64.3
7.1
41.7
100.0
35.7
50.0
35.7
85.7
28.
57.
42.
57.
78.
64,3
50.0
50.0
57.1
64.3
42.9
58.3
83,3
71.4
78.6
35.7
28.6
78.6
50.0
64.3
78.6
42.9
64.3
78.6
28.6
57,1
64.3
21.4
58.3
58.3
42.9
57,1
78.6
28,6
35.7
85.7
50.0
64.3
50.0
71.4
57,1
57.1
64,3
57.1
7.1
50.0
75.0
54,8
33.3
64.3
64.3
33.3
71.4
47,6
52.4
61.9
64.3
SO.O
64.3
69.0
59.5
64.3
71.4
28.6
28.6
42.9
64.3
85.7
57.1
57.1
42.9
28.6
42.
100.0
78.6
64.3
50.0
71.4
2.9
4.3
35.7
42.9
35.7
85.7
42.9
57.1
50.0
57.1
57.1
64.3
35.7
78.6
0.0
50.0
0.0
50.0
0.0
57.1
50,0
92,3
57.1
71.4
85.7
50.0
57.1
100.0
71.4
71.4
50,0
71.4
42.9
50.0
64.3
85.7
71.4
0.0
50.0
14.3
57.1
78.6
71,4
57.1
0,0
64,3
28.6
57.1
64.3
78.6
85.7
28.6
85,7
50.0
64.3
71.4
50.0
57.1
14.3
71,4
28.6
28.6
85 . 7
92.9
64.3
50.0
57,1
57,1
35.7
42 . 9
71.4
50.0
50.0
57.1
57 !l
57.1
42.9
35.7
35.7
57.1
42^9
7K4
92.9
57.1
35.7
35.7
71.4
57.1
85.7
50.0
35.7
71.4
57.1
42.9
64.3
78.6
78.6
85.7
64.3
78.6
50.0
50.0
28.6
57.1
85.7
78.6
64.3
78.6
28.6
28.6
50.0
42!g
28.*6
2K4
64.3
57.1
78.6
42.9
42.9
85.7
42.9
14,3
57,1
42.9
78.6
57.1
57.1
50.0
42.9
85.7
57.1
50.0
42.9
42.9
83.3
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
37.5
8,3
1QO.O
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100,0
95.8
100.0
100,0
83,3
83.3
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
91.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
16.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
100.0
50.0
54,2
100.0
100,0
58.3
0.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
75.0
100,0
0.0
54.2
100.0
83.3
87.5
91.7
100.0
100.0
57.3
97.9
82.3
21.1
6?.?
78.1
34.4
91.7
100.0
100.0
100. e
100.6
95.8
91.7
100,0
85.4
31.2
100,6
100.0
81.2
31.2
§1.1
99.0
97.9
100.0
76.0
49.0
41.7
20.8
100,0
9S.8
96.9
87. S
100.0
100,0
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
25.0
58.3
75.0
64.3
35.7
78.6
92,9
21.4
64.3
42.9
57.1
50.0
50,0
50.0
78.6
57.1
42.9
' T h i s series c o n t a i n s revis ons b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1986.
T h i i series eonta ins revisl ens beglnn ina w i t h 1985.
This series contains revisions begTftrtfner w f t h 1984.
2
3
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
87.5
25.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
37.5
100,0
100.0
0.0
75,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
0.0
25,0
100.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
COMPONENTS2
951,
1934.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1939.
1960,
1961.
1962.
1963,
1964,
1965,
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969,
1976.
1971,
1972,
1973.
1974.
87.5
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
50,0
100.0
100.0
75.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
100,0
75.0
37.5
87.5
12.5
0.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
62.5
62.5
75.0
31.0
38.1
57 .2
78,6
64.3
66.6
40.5
57,2
78.6
59.5
0,0
52.4
71,4
69.0
71.4
54.7
80.9
25.0
80,5
59.5
69,1
21.4
85.7
45.3
52.4
57.1
71.4
61.9
59.5
64.3
45.2
59.5
52.4
30.
71.'
38.
64.
59.
28.
54.
69 .
78.
71.
9.
66.
40.5
71.4
52.4
69.1
52,4
66.7
35.7
73.8
47.6
35.7
47 .6
47.6
57.
88.
54.7
40.5
50.0
57.1
52.8
80.5
50.0
61,9
50.0
47.6
47,6
64.3
52.4
66.7
57.2
66.7
61.9
45.2
59.5
61.9
23,8
31.0
50.0
59,5
52.4
45.2
42.9
66 .7
71.4
57.1
38,1
61.9
19,1
66,7
59.5
69.1
45.3
57.1
66.7
31,2
70.1
67.0
64.3
29.2
68,5
57,2
45.2
64.3
63,
58,
63,
67.
47,
62.
66.7
39.3
41.1
45.2
10,2
§4.2
26,2
47,0
66 , 1
74,4
66,1
42.2
62.5
36.3
50.0
73.2
56.0
4?. 6
51,8
§9.5
(OCTOBER 1980)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
952,
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957 .
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
May
. June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
0.0
50.0
100.0
78.6
0.0
85.7
78.6
21.4
78.6
50.0
42.9
78.6
100,0
57,1
85.7
100.0
8,3
58.3
100.0
64.3
0.0
85.7
78.6
21.4
92.9
64.3
35.7
50.0
85.7
57.1
71.4
100.0
0.0
91.7
100,0
85.7
0.0
100.0
71.4
21.4
85,7
85.7
50.0
78.6
85.7
57,1
100.0
78.6
0.0
83.3
83.3
85.7
0.0
100.0
71.4
21.4
64.3
92.9
50.0
78.6
85.7
42.9
85.7
78.6 .
8.3
100.0
75.0
71.4
14.3
100.0
57.1
21.4
64.3
85.7
57.1
64.3
8.3
91.7
75.0
71.4
28.6
100.0
57.1
28.6
50.0
92.9
64.3
64.3
8.3
91,7
57.1
57.1
28.6
100.0
35.7
50.0
57.1
78.6
64.3
85.7
25.0
100,0
71.4
57.1
28.6
85.7
42.9
64.3
64,3
85.7
78.6
71.4
83.3
71.4
57.1
71.4
57.1
42.9
71.4
50.0
64.3
64.3
71.4
100.0
64.3
42.9
71.4
57,1
35.7
64.3
35,7
64.3
64.3
85.7
44.5
100.0
78.6
14,3
80.9
64.3
23.8
83.4
54.8
47.6
69.1
57.1
78.6
92.9
42.9
57.1
71.4
42.9
71.4
57.1
42.9
85.7
78.6
57.1
57.1
78.6
57.1
78.6
57,1
28.6
28,6
100.0
100.0
28.6
42.9
57.1
14.3
42.9
14.3
71,4
35.7
71.4
42.9
71.4
85.7
0.0
28.6
78.6
57.1
0.0
57.1
71.4
57.1
0.0
64.3
92.9
71.4
0.0
71.4
100.0
57.1
7 1,4
71.4
57.1
14.3
57.1
85.7
57.1
42.9
71.4
50.0
28.6
28.6
78.6
42.9
42.9
100.0
57.1
28.6
42.9
78.6
14.3
64.3
71.4
57.1
14.3
57.1
85.7
0.0
71.4
85.7
42.9
14.3
57.1
85.7
78.6
71.4
78.6
14.3
100.0
57.1
64.3
28.6
85.7
28.6
71.4
28.6
78,6
28.
57,
28.
85.7
28.6
85.7
28.6
71.4
0.0
85,7
28.6
85.7
0.0
71.4
14.3
92.9
57.1
71.4
57.1
78.6
100.0
42.9
85.7
57.1
85.7
85.7
50.0
35.7
57.1
85.7
92.9
64.3
42.9
42.9
42.9
85.
57.
42.9
64.3
57.1
100.0
50.0
28.6
71.4
57.1
92.9
57.1
28.6
57.1
35.7
71.4
57.1
28.6
64.3
78.6
57,1
14.3
57.1
7.1
85.7
85.7
71.4
42.9
71,4
71.4
57.1
28.6
71.4
7.1
85.7
71.4
78.6
28.6
92.9
85.7
D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N — 24
( P E R C E N T RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
35.4
89.6
58.3
45.8
18.8
83.3
66.7
70.8
16.7
58.3
85.4
77.1
72.9
66.7
54.2
66.7
33.3
62.5
87.5
50.0
25.0
18.8
68.8
62.5
45.8
31.2
54.2
66.7
25.0
83.3
91.7
41.7
68.8
81.2
43.8
79.2
8.3
85.4
47.9
54.2
77.1
81.2
72.9
70.8
60.4
8.3
77.1
56.2
52,1
39.6
54.2
93.8
47.9
50.0
31.2
77.1
45.8
66.7
72.9
70.8
43.8
70.8
79.2
43.8
56.2
83.3
39.6
56.2
41.7
83.3
85.4
22.9
27 .1
91.7
41.7
77.1
64.6
77.1
89.6
58.3
62.5
60.4
52.1
37.5
41.7
91.7
79.2
83.3
18.8
35.4
68.8
75.0
37.5
66 .7
54.2
66.7
85.4
72.9
75.0
37.5
83.3
62,5
41.7
58.3
64.6
83.3
25.0
62.5
95.8
54.2
22,9
91.7
41.7 '
58.3
52.1
77.1
58.3
54.2
54.2
68.8
41.7
70.8
56.2
45.8
58.3
50.0
83.3
64,6
35.4
70.8
56.2
60.4
77.1
70.8
68.8
45.8
41 .7
58.3
58.3
58.3
79.2
54.2
29.2
85.4
81.2
54.2
64.6
50.0
54.2
68. &
62.5
75.0
54.2
66.7
47.9
16,7
37.5
66.7
83.3
68.8
56.2
45.8
16,7
66.7
60.4
66.7
56.2
45.8
52..1
58.3
89 .6
87.5
37.5
8.3
58.3
25.0
79.2
66.7
54.2
64.6
70,8
50.0
89.6
62.5
62.5
64.6
20.8
70.8
41,7
77.1
45.8
72.9
79.2
47.9
70.8
41.7
72.9
79.2
31.2
52.1
64.6
54.2
60.4
70.8
50.0
79.2
70.8
60.4
25.0
95.8
79.2
58.3
8.3
100.0
79.2
47,9
79.2
91.7
95.8
83.3
91.7
50.0
87.5
79.2
27,1
62.5
100.0
79.2
25.0
8.3
87.5
91.7
87.5
54.2
41 ,7
87.5
12.5
83.3
95.8
56.2
75.0
.
91.7
83.3
45.8
100.0
62.5
. 56.2
16.7
95.8
87.5
77 . 1
75.0
95.8
100.0
89.6
95.8
41.7
79.2
79,2
29.2
75.0
91.7
70.8
29.2
16.7
79.2
91.7
91.7
54.2
20.8
66.7
16.7
91.7
95.8
62.5
41.7
89 .6
75.0
IV Q
Annual
52.4
52.4
80.9
54.7
23.8
42.9
81.0
36,1
94.4
69.0
52.4
57.1
66.6
40.5
66.7
50.0
71.4
69.1
76.2
47.6
52.4
73.8
71.4
21.4
14.3
73.8
73.8
42.9
19.1
57.1
83.3
16.7
77.8
83.1
69,0
23. g
85.7
57.31
36,3
67,9
73.2
56.0
71.4
76.8
51,2
76 ,,2
81,0
32.8
30.4
58.9
83.9
63.7
15.5
50,6
79,2
71.4
4.8
71.4
16.7
71.4
83.3
61.9
33.4
64.3
61.9
61.9
28.6
64.3
11.9
85.7
66.6
85.7
38.1
92.9
95,2
76,2
32.2
67.2
21,4
52.4
S3.9
63,7
43.5
68.4
73.2
52.4
76.2
92.9
94.5
69.0
66.6
23.8
100.0
50.0
33.3
57.1
85.7
61.9
71.4
76.2
47 .6
69.0
73.8
28.6
85.7
64.3
28.6
28.6
57.1
78.6
23.8
38.1
95.2
95.2
19.1
38,1
64.3
31.0
71.4
85.7
61.9
0.0
64.3
88.1
71.4
28.6
71.4
14.3
85.7
71.4
92.9
28.6
100.0
100.0
57.1
28.6
50.0
14.3
85.7
57.1
85.7
57.1
85.7
100.0
88. 1
66.6
61.9
28.6
19.1
92,9
50.0
64.3
57.1
83.3
83.3
28.6
71.4
28.6
33.4
92.9
57.1
38.1
59.5
52,4
83.3
66,7
68.8
20.8
58.3
95.8
18.8
56.2
66.7
31.2
52.8
86.2
50.0
58.3
19.4
81.9
53.5
63.9
55.6
70.1
61.8
83.3
43,1
40.3
63.9
73.6
34.0
78.5
53.5
67.4
55.5
54.9
60.4
44.4
83.3
47.2
31.9
69,4
63.9
66.0
86.8
75.7
59.7
11.1
72.9
63.9
31.3
75.7
57.0
52.8
83.3
50.0
56.2
58.3
52.1
68.8
83.3
70.8
22.9
8.3
75.0
75.0
68.8
66.7
45.8
62.5
20,8
72,9
70.8
39.6
62,5
68.7
41.7
52.8
77.1
65.3
42.4
21,6
63.9
70.1
61.1
54.9
53.5
55.6
69.4
65.3
50.7
63.2
56.3
41 .7
73.6
62.5
66.7
54.8
57.6
63.2
75.0
76.4
50.0
19.4
63.2
65.3
65.3
61.8
54.9
56.2
45.8
65.3
77.1
63.9
43.6
65.3
66.7
59.0
63.9
45.1
68.1
42.4
80.6
54.2
66.0
66.7
52.8
43.8
78.5
76.4
50,0
15.3
75.7
67.4
70.2
67.4
45.1
66.0
22,2
70.8
75.7
54.2
46.5
52.1
59.0
75.7
61.1
58.3
54.2
63.9
66.0
87.5
51.4
59.7
45.8 '
61.1
66.7
59.0
47.9
58,3
72.2
73.6
72,2
66.0
92.4
50.0
41.7
75,0
74,3
27.1
83.3
91.7
62,5
13.9
98.6
49.3
13.9
96,5
82.0
77,8
3.5
95,8
77.1
29.9
75.7
81.2
88.2
93.1
43.7
86.1
77.8
27.8
47.2
94.4
82.0
33.3
4.2
87,5
81.9
69.4
70,8
56,9
88. 9
12,5
63.2
93.1
38.2
75.0
82,6
81,9
77.1
INDUSTRIES
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
62.5
68.8
54.2
25.0
81.2
91.7
64.6
10.4
95.8
68.8
45,8
2.1
56.2
25.0
56,2
77.1
66.7
62.5
58.3
70.8
52.1
52,1
52.1
43.8
83.3
79.2
45.8
41.7
62.5
66,7
54.2
70.8
47.9
45.8
95.8
25.0
60.4
47.9
29.2
75.0
79.2
66.7
68.8
39.6
58,3
68.8
56.2
54.2
20.8
35.4
81 ,2
58.3
70.8
66.7
66.7
56.2
87.5
70.8
58.3
35.4
54.2
83.3
77.1
50.0
75.0
64.6
66.7
66.7
29.2
60.4
50.0
70,8
70.8
47.9
50.0
79.2
52.1
95.8
66 .7
58.3
79.2
33.3
56.2
75.0
43.8
62.5
75,0
14.6
37.5
91.7
43.8
58.3
79.2
64.6
75.0
68.8
58.3
43.8
79.2
81.2
66.7
33.3
79.2
72.9
75.0
68.8
56.2
54.2
16.7
31.2
60.4
52.1
37.5
79.2
47.9
66.7
72.9
47.9
18.8
72.9
77.1
60.4
4.2
72.9
54.2
66.7
66.7
33.3
81.2
29.2
54.2
58.3
50.0
79.2
70,8
58.3
70.8
83.3
62.5
60.4
50.0
56.3
75.0
75.0
79.2
75.0
58.3
41.7
58.3
75,0
66.7
66.7
64.2
75.3
53.3
38.5
59.9
66.7
37.7
71.9
57.5
64.6
71.0
72.0
63.9
54.5
61,8
58. 5
43.2
67,5
73,3
61.5
39,1
55.0
65.3
68.6
67.2
48.8
51.7
45.8
41.7
73.3
59.0
57.6
54.7
62.7
66.0
INDUSTRIES
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
58.3
100.0
45.8
64.6
93.8
39.6
70.8
95.8
50.0
62.5
87,5
60.4
83.3
100;0
50.0
79.2
87.5
58.3
87.5
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
70.8
97,9
79.2
83.3
100.0
75.0
79.2
33.3
91.7
50.0
91.7
58.3
100. 0'
100.0
79.2
81.2
35,4
70.8
83.3
20.8
75.0
91.7
70,8
45.8
33.3
87,5
95.8
87.5
54.2
16,7
58.3
35.4
95.8
87.5
70.8
58.3
75.0
70.8
50.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
81.2
87.5
05.8
87.5
75.0
29.2
83.3
72.9
22.9
60.4
79.2
87.5
50,0
41.7
79.2
87.5
95.8
56.2
20.8
75.0
41 ,7
83.3
70.8
75.0
47.9
75.0
91.7
83.3
79.2
35.4
100.0
68.8
95.8
91,7
87.5
75.0
70.8
75.0
75.0
29.2
62.5
87.5
72.9
50.0
62.5
70.8
91 .7
100.0
66.7
25.0
75.0
20,8
95,8
70,8
75.0
50.0
87.5
87.5
91.7
60.4
20,8
91.7
75.0
89.6
95.8
79.2
66 .7
83.3
70.8
54.2
41.7
75.0
87.5
81,2
50.0
75.0
77 . 1
83.3
87.5
43.8
20.8
47.9
16 .7
100.0
64.6
66.7
58.3
83.3
79.2
95.8
45.8
20.8
100.0
54.2
87.5
83.3
91.7
70.8
68.8
79 .2
75.0
35.4
70.8
75.0
79.2
50,0
75.0
85.4
91.7
75.0
62.5
45.8
41 .7
29.2
95.8
54.2
66.7
47.9
91.7
79.2
100.0
39.6
12.5
100.0
68.8
79.2
79.2
95.8
66.7
87.5
75.0
52.1
43.8
70,8
87.5
77.1
8.3
95.8
77.1
83.3
85 .4
47.9
75.0
27.1
37,5
95.8
54.2
68.8
75.0
91.7
83.3
100.0
62.5
8.3
95.8
75.0
68.8
95.8
87,5
62.5
83.3
79.2
41.7
50.0
83,
85,
54.
0,
91.
75.
79.
70.
45.
87,
16.
27.
89.
45.8
70.8
79.2
95.8
91.7
95.8
70.8
16.7
100.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
77.1
47.9
43.0
98.6
62.5
56.2
19.4
95.8
72.2
75.0
83,3
85 .4
91.7
77.1
85.4
87.5
91.7
75.0
75.0
91,7
95.8
70.8
95.8
98.6
84.0
75.0
91.0
94.4
84.7
83.3
70.8
29,2
47.9
95.8
79.2
39.6
4.2
87.5
75.0
75.0
70.8
62.5
95.8
12.5
56.2
95.8
29.2
79.2
72.9
83,3
91 .7
87,5
79.2
29.2
52.1
95.8
79.2
31 .2
8.3
91.7
87.5
83.3
25.0
41.7
91.7
87.5
29.2
0.0
83.3
42 ,4
79.2
80.6
25.7
70.8
94.5
73.6
33,3
19.4
61.1
76,4
67 .4
31,3
66.0
84.7
80.5
50.0
59.7
66.0
78.5
86.1
91.7
66.7
79.9
77.8
56.3
43.1
75.0
82.6
70.2
19.4
87.5
58.3
66.7
58.3
87.5
8,3
66.7
91.7
33.3
83.3
87.5
79.2
70.8
75.0
75.0
50.0
83.3
16.7
66.7
91.7
52.1
62,5
87,5
83.3
68.8
93,1
88.9
54,2
26.4
70.8
21.5
90.3
93.0
63.2
58.3
85.4
76 .4
87.5
94.4
55.6
22.2
66.0
26.4
93.0
68.7
72.2
52.1
81.9
86.1
84 . 7
77.1
52.1
69.4
28.5
31.3
93,7
51.4
68.8
67.4
93.1
84.7
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1985.
111 Q
77.8
94.4
78.6
0.0
95.2
73.8
21.4
81,0
81 ,0
45.2
69,1
85.7
52.4
85.7
85.7
47.9
50.0
68.8
58,3
•
II Q
A V E RAGE FOR P E R I O D
16.7
41.7
100.0
78.6
14.3
85.7
64,3
21.4
92.9
64.3
35.7
64.3
100.0
42.9
78.6
100.0
9 6 6 . D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N — 24
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6 - M O N T H S P A N S )
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958,
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
Sept.
41.7
41.7
100.0
78.6
28.6
71,4
50.0
28.6
78.6
50.0
64.3
64.3
92.9
57.1
64.3
78.6
57.1
28.6
42.9
85.7
100.0
28.6
42.9
57.1
85.7
85.7
71.4
42.9
42.9
966.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969,
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977 ,
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983,
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
Apr.
DIFFUSION INDEX OF 7 LAGGING I N D I C A T O R COMPONENTS'
( P E R C E N T RISING OVER 6-MONTH S P A N S )
72.2
91,2
63.2
28,8
72,2
74,1
35.8
89.2
71.9
86.6
91.8
88.4
68.0
67.4
77.8
Sg.O
36.8
76.6
S6.0
64.4
26.7
63.5
00,4
83.7
82,8
54,7
51.7
44.4
35.6
92.5
62.8
69. S
65.1
85. 6
81.1
(OCTOBER 1989)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year | Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
(PERCENT RISING
1934.,
1955..
1956,,
195?,,
1958..
1939,,
I960,.
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964.,
1965,,
1966,.
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973,.
1974..
1973.,
1976.,
1977..
1978..
1979,.
1980..
1981..
1982.,
1983.,
1984,.
1983..
1986..
198?.,
1988..
34,6
65,4
30.0
30.8
38, §
50.0
46.2
73.1
34.6
61. §
§0,0
50.0
50.0
34,6
38.5
73.1
46,2
76.9
46.2
34,6
46,2
42.3
65.4
38.5
69.2
53.8
37,7
26.9
69.2
53.8
50.0
30.0
57,?
34.6
76,9
84.6
73.1
38, §
6§,4
69.2
69.2
61,3
30.0
30.8
42.3
61. §
38. §
23,1
61.5
84,6
42.3
46. a
61.5
73.1
92.3
73.1
69.2
61.5
73.1
34.6
76.9
73.1
30,8
34,6
76.9
61. §
38.5
38,5
42.3
34.6
967.
1954...
46.2
1935. .,
§3.8
1957,".!
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962..,
1963.,.
1964...
1963...
1966...
1967...
46 '.2
26,9
69.2
53.8
61.5
30.8
63.4
76,9
73,1
53,8
7.7
1968. . .
38.5
1969,,,
1970,,.
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975..,
76,9
69.2
46.2
84.6
100.0
69.2
19,2
1 9 7 6 , .,
1977 . , ,
65.4
§7.7
1978...
66,7
?3. 1
42 ".3
50.0
46.2
38.5
73,1
42.3
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
73.1
57,7
26,9
57.7
53.8
50.0
73.1
84.6
69,2
§3.8
30.8
73.1
80,8
46,2
76.9
61.3
63.4
38,5
57.7
6§.4
3?.?
34.6
30.8
65.4
DIFFUSION
53.8
69.2
46 '.2
34.6
69,2
53,8
61.5
34.6
69.2
76.9
8Q.8
38.3
19.2
§3 .8
76.9
61.3
46.2
84,6
92,3
76.9
13.4
65.4
50.0
66,7
1980 !.".
5 8,' 3
§0*,0
1981,,,
1982...
38.5
15.4
1983, ,.
80,8
1984,,,
1983.,,
1986...
1987...
1988...
73,1
23,1
46.2
88. §
69.2
38,5
30. ft
61.3
65 .4
23.1
§0,0
96.2
61. §
June
July
Aug.
Sept,
§3 '.8
46.2
26 .9
37.7
42.3
23.1
57.7
80.8
61.3
69.2
73,1
26,9
§0.0
73.1
30,8
76.9
46.2
38.5
92.3
42,3
§3.8
73.1
42.3
76.9
80.8
69,2
73.1
26.9
34,6
53.8
38.5
61.5
34,6
69.2
§0.0
84,6
6§.4
38.5
88.5
50*,0
42 ! 3
§?.?
53.8
46.2
26,9
37,7
23.1
34,6
26 .9
§0.0
46,2
38. §
3?, 7
73,1
34.6
30.8
65.4
34,6
61.5
42.3
15.4
26,9
34,6
46,2
50.0
38.5
61.5
88. S
65.4
S?!?
42.3
30,8
61.5
26.9
46.2
34.6
57.7
42.3
69.2
30.8
46.2
§3.8
73.1
46.2
46.2
69,2
15.4
80.8
53.8
0,0
38.5
23.1
46,2
42,3
23.1
65.4
§? .7
63.4
46 ,2
53.8
30.8
34.6
61.3
38.5
34,6
26.9
30. 8
73.1
30.8
46.2
61.5
69.2
38.5
57.7
73.1
34.6
65.4
46.2
53.8
61.3
61.3
57.7
34.6
38.5
50.0
73.1
42.3
46.2
76,9
46,2
42.3
73.1
50.0
19,2
30.8
65.4
69.2
34.6
61.5
69,2
61.5
34,6
53.8
34.6
50.0
69.2
30.8
76.9
61.5
§3.8
73,1
46.2
46.2
50,0
76.9
46.2
34.6
§3.8
50.0
46.2
65.4
§3,8
7.7
42.3
65.4
5-0,0
30,8
§3,8
57.7
34.6
50.0
37.7
34.6
§0.0
76.9
33.8
57,?
42,3
61. §
57.7
46.2
46.2
6§.4
61.5
38.5
23.1
42.3
57.7
73, 1
88.3
61. §
26.9
53.8
76.9
46.2
34.6
§0,0
61.5
42.3
26.9
34,6
50.0
§0.0
88.5
6 2 .§
65.4
38.5
46.2
69.2
30,8
42.3
73.1
53.8
42.3
46.2
26.9
76,9
65.4
69,2
42.3
57.7
57.7
76.9
63.4
42.3
53.8
53.8
73.1
23.1
§3.8
61.5
37.5
80.8
61. §
§3.8
26.9
30.8
76.9
§7.7
23.1
61.5
46,2
69.2
61.5
69.2
57.7
76.9
61.5
73,1
53.8
76,9,
61.5
84.6
30.8
65.4
§3.8
30.8
§3.8
15.4
61.5
69.2
42.3
38. §
11.5
23.1
SO.O
57.7
38,5
69.2
11.5
65.4
76.9
50.6
26.9
19,2
23,1
69.2
76.9
46,2
69.2
19.2
33.8
80.8
11.5
11.5
15.4
84.6
61.5
34.6
50.0
30.8
51.8
t.4.6
57 ,7
11.5
34.6
15.4
76.9
61. §
23.1
53.8
38.5
53.8
76.9
57.7
11.5
30.8
76,9
30.8
46,2
92.3
92,3
61,3
50.0
69.2
50.0
69,2
26.9
61,5
84.6
80,8
46.2
42.3
73.1
46.2
80,8
34.6
69.2
80.8
80.8
46.2
57.7
65.4
46.2
84.6
23.1
53.8
69.2
80.8
38.5
34.6
57.7
45.8
88.5
46.2
46.2
19.2
96.2
30.8
38.5
50.0
96.2
61.5
46.2
53.8
19.2
88.5
30.8
46.2
30,0
80,8
61.5
46.2
61.5
26.9
88.5
23.1
38,5
30.0
88.5
5?.?
50*,0
46 .2
26.9
80.8
34.6
23.1
42,3
?3,1
61,5
IQ
36.0
85.3
74.1
71,4
76.4
70.0
78.2
80.5
80.9
89,3
104.5
101.6
102.4
119.3
142.3
1968, .
130.1
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1973,,
1976..
1977..
1978.,
1979!!
146.0
131.3
111.8
104,1
163.1
99.6
100.9
99,9
98,8
98,4
103!9
1980. .
112.1
1981..
1982.,
117. S
124.3
1983. .
13? ,8
1984..
1985..
1986..
1987..,
1988...
148.8
163.6
178.9
187.3
190,6
84,7
74.1
70.7
76.8
70.S
77.5
86.9
80.3
91.1
103.7
100.7
103.3
121,1
144.1
151.8
145.0
129.2
109.1
106.0
103.6
99.7
98.3
100.5
99.3
93,4
104!5
113.6
116.9
128,5
139.2
150,6
165.1
178.0
188.9
191.0
NOTE: Th«se serltjs c o n t d i n n
104
83.6
73.7
69.3
76.7
71.9
77.8
81.3
80.2
92,3
103.1
100.4
10S.4
122 .2
145.6
148,9
145.3
126.3
108.2
105.9
162.7
99.4
97.9
101 .2
98,8
103!fi
113.6
117.1
129.3
140.4
151.1
167.2
178.6
188,6
169.9
82,1
73.6
69.7
76.9
73.1
78.3
80.8
80.4
93.1
80.9
73.6
69.9
73,7
73.9
7S.9
81.7
80.4
93.8
79.7
72.9
69.9
76,2
76.0
79.1
79.7
80.4
94.7
100.2
106.7
124.7
147. 1
143.9
144.3
123.5
108.3
106.1
102.2
99.2
98,3
100.2
101.6
98.5
109.0
127 ,0
148. 1
147.9
144.1
120.8
109.6
105.3
101.4
100.1
98.7
100.2
102.1
97,9
110.3
128,9
147.8
148.7
142.0
118.7
107.9
103.0
101. 9
99.3
99.4
99.3
102.6
102!6
113 '.3
116.1
131,6
141.6
135.0
168.2
179,8
189.2
187.9
103!l
115.6
116.6
133,5
142.7
154,9
169.6
180.2
189.3
183.5
103!0
H6l2
117.1
133.9
143.6
155.8
171.6
180.7
188.6
184.6
79.4
72.8
69.9
75.3
?6 , 1
79.5
81.6
80,9
96,5
Q
IV Q
Annual
69.2
84.6
53.8
23.1
76.9
61. §
51.3
61,5
48.7
37.2
41,1
62.8
§9.6
30.8
46.2
57.?
51.3
66.6
64. 1
35.9
67.9
52.5
&4.1
39.0
41.0
62.8
54,5
62.8
30,6
40,1
S7.4
51 '.3
64.1
50.0
53.8
51.3
§0.0
§9.0
38.4
48.7
59.0
51.3
56.4
78.2
82.0
66.7
46.2
66.7
74.4
50.0
71,8
61.5
42.3
38. §
65.4
§3.1
39.8
44.9
52.6
47.4
5o!e
56.4
41.0
52.6
41.0
62.8
35.9
42.3
34.6
66.7
42.3
53,9
60,2
70.5
4?.4
44.9
66.7
28.2
64.1
55.1
9.0
44.9
29.5
52.6
47.4
46.2
60.2
69.2
62.8
42*. 3
61.5
42,3
41.0
66.7
47.4
20.5
39.?
53.9
64,1
32.1
§3.8
62.8
§5.1
41,0
56.4
47.4
44.9
70.5
43.6
62,8
55,1
§8.9
62.8
42.3
43. &
35.1
70.3
42.3
32*. 1
43.6
§6.4
66 .?
69.2
§5.1
42.3
57.?
69.2
§9.0
39 .7
52.5
64.1
62.8
24.4
48.7
§9.0
48.4
70.5
67.0
55.1
37.2
41.1
62.8
33.9
41.0
66,?
SO.O
62.8
43!$
§6,4
4? ,4
S3.§
57.0
53.8
39,4
44,5
§1.6
62.2
41.4
54. 2
66 .3
67.6
44,9
49.0
59.9
49,0
63,8
59.4
4?. I
44.9
42.0
60.9
45.2
42.6
§6.?
60.6
§3.8
61. §
69.2
60.2
73.1
50.0
25.7
61.5
62.8
38.5
64.1
15.4
60.2
75.6
47.4
25.6
14,1
61.5
82.0
§5,1
18.0
79.§
61.3
29.5
57.7
34.6
§5.1
74.3
75.6
23.1
31.3
64.1
85.9
28,2
42.3
65.4
38.9
89.8
63.9
42.3
42.3
21.8
80.8
18.6
41.1
62.8
84,6
59.0
©
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
61.5
84.6
61.5
73.1
57 . 7
23.1
73.1
46.2
46.2
§3.8
50.0
69.2
76.9
57.7
3.8
38.5
19.2
69.2
46.2
53.8
38.5
6§.4
80.8
80.8
50.0
3.8
42,3
§3.8
65.4
50.0
46.2
35.9
66.6
§1.3
58,9
32.1
67.9
71.8
71.8
42.3
14.1
69.2
46.2
84.6
92.3
76.9
19.2
65.4
69.2
75.0
92.3
58.3
65.4
15.4
65.4
73.1
34.6
§3.8
76,9
69.2
61,5
76.9
55.1
46.2
87.2
94.9
69.2
17,9
70,5
52.6
63,9
93.6
54.0
41.1
24.4
66.7
&0.3
23.1
51.3
88.5
64.1
79.5
30,8
39.0
85.9
84.6
§1.3
50.0
69.2
47.5
78.2
85 .?
4 7 . ,§
48.7
21,8
88.
32,
35.
47.
83.
61.
84. §
74.0
70.5
76,6
70.8
77 .8
80.9
80.5
91.0
103.8
100.9
103.8
120.9
144.1
150.3
145.5
128.9
109.7
105.3
103.1
99.6
99.0
100. §
99,0
98.1
104.0
113.1
117,2
127 ,4
139.1
150.2
165.3
178.5
188.3
190.5
80.9
73.4
69.8
76.3
74.3
78.8
80.7
80.4
93.9
103.
98.
108.
126.
14?.
14?.
143.5
121,0
108.6
105.5
101.8
99.5
98.8
99.9
102.1
101.3
102.9
115.7
116,6
133.0
142.6
1§5.2
169.8
180.2
189.0
186.0
69.2
34.6
57.7
61, §
50.0
3.8
38.5
23 !l
76,9
53.8
38.5
53.8
34.6
53.8
69.2
57,7
3.8
38.5
19.2
53.8
61.5
88.5
23. 1
50,0
6 1 .5
29.2
92.3
26.9
46,2
61.5
88,5
23,1
42,3
76.9
41.7
88.5
69.2
23.1
53.8
76.9
92.3
23.1
42.3
76.9
45.8
88. §
42.3
42.3
15.4
80.8
15.4
46.2
65,4
88.5
53.8
38.5
23.1
23.1
73.1
15.4
38.5
73.1
76,9
65,4
61.5
23.1
50.0
80,8
15.4
53.8
65.4
53,8
5?.?
76.9
38.5
84.6
76.9
84.6
19.2
65.4
73.1
62.5
88.5
§8.3
65.4
23.1
57.7
80.8
19.2
53,8
80.8
69.2
69.2
76.2
72.1
73.3
72.1
77.2
79.4
81.0
84.9
98,4
75.7
72.0
74.4
69.7
77.8
79.2
81.3
87.0
99.4
?4.6
72.2
76.1
69,2
77.9
79.9
80.1
88.5
99.8
100.6
115.7
138.6
150.7
146.6
134.8
112.2
104.5
103.1
101.8
101.5
96.3
100.1
95.0
102.5
110.5
117.3
125,0
137.4
145.2
160.4
177.1
185.5
188.7
182.2
101.3
116.8
140,1
150.7
145.8
133.2
110.9
102.9
103.8
101.2
101. §
99.3
99.5
18.1
103.6
111.2
117.9
126.9
136.9
145.5
162.9
178.3
186.2
188.9
180.5
3fl,8
77 .7
72.2
70.7
75.4
76.8
79.0
82 ,0
81.3
97.9
76.9
72.5
71.4
73.9
7?,3
79.5
81.8
83.
98.
97.7
112,1
130.6
148,6
148.7
141.5
116 .7
107.1
104,0
102.1
100.4
97.7
99.1
102.6
98,2
113.0
132.4
148.8
149.1
139.5
115.8
107.1
102.7
100.5
101,3
97.8
100.2
102.3
103,8
114.4
118.6
134.3
144.9
156.1
171,9
182.4
188. 7
184.9
103.0
115.6
120. §
134.2
145.0
159.2
173.5
183.7
189.1
184.9
98.
113.
134.
149.
148.
138.
114.6
106.0
103.2
100.8
101.5
99,4
100.6
103.1
103.3
106.3
116.3
121.8
135.2
146 .3
161.2
174.8
184.6
189.8
184.3
j revisions but are reprinted for the GO venienee of the user.
III
53.8
69.2
50.0
§0.0
30.8
53.8
26.9
61.5
34.6
61.5
§0.0
61. §
42.3
61.5
S3. 8
65.4
42,3
53.8
76.9
73.1
23.1
57.7
65.4
57,7
42.3
76.9
46,2
46.2
46.2
42.3
19.2
57.7
65.4
§0.6
76.9
§57. I N D E X OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N , D E F E N S E A N D SPACE E Q U I P M E N T
( I N D E X : 1977-100)
1954..
1955..
1956,.
1937..
1938,,
1939..
I960..
1961,.
1962,.
1963..
1964..
196S.,
1966,,
196?,.
II Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
46,2
38.5
23.1
42.3
61.5
69)2
38.3
50.0
69,2
84.6
SO.O
34.6
34.6
80,8
30,0
76,9
69.2
65,4
61.5
57.7
65.4
34.6
50.0
69.2
11,5
69.2
30.8
63.4
50.0
76.9
53.8
61.5
57.7
Dec.
O V E R 1-MOWTH S P A N S )
73.1
65.4
42.3
46,2
38,5
I N D E X O F SPOT M A R K E T PR1CES--13 R A W I N D U S T R I A L M A T E R I A L S
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 9 - M O N T H S P A N S )
61.3
73.1
50.0
46.2
46,2
61.5
46.2
53,8
30,8
69,2
61.5
61.5
34.6
15,4
30,8
76.9
34.6
46.2
92.3
92.3
61. S
19.2
80.8
§0,0
58.3
Nov.
Oct.
5§.l
8.9
34.6
61.5
75.6
21 '.8
73.1
48.?
46,2
48.7
50.0
67.9
75.6
55,1
3.8
39.8
89 .?
71,8
33.9
74.3
82.0
84,6
20.5
57, 7
73.1
61.1
89.8
61.1
64.1
20.5
5?.?
78.2
23.1
53.8
74,4
64.1
62.8
S9.3
74.0
S 6 .6
27,9
62.5
39.9
41.4
57.3
33.0
62.8
74,3
57.4
20,2
25.6
62 ,2
36.2
57 .'?
79,8
ft?. 5
42.3
42.0
69,6
50.0
80.4
76.1
52.0
38.2
31.4
78.6
33.3
38.3
39.0
80.1
61,8
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
99.5
114.7
136.2
150.5
145.0
137.3
113.0
105.4
102.4
101.8
101.8
98.4
100.7
95.9
1 02 . 5
109.3
116.7
123,7
136.4
146 .4
160.8
175.2
185 ,6
190.3
184.0
78.0
72,§
70.7
74.9
76.?
79.3
81.8
81.8
97.5
102.3
98.2
112,8
132.4
148.9
148.9
139.9
115.7
106.7
103.3
101.1
101.1
98.3
100.0
102.7
102 . 6
105.0
115.4
120.3
134.6
14§.4
158.8
173.4
183.6
189.2
184.8
?§.§
72.1
74.6
70.3
77.6
79.5
80.8
86.8
99.2
102 ,5
100.5
115.?
138.3
130.6
145.8
13§.l
112.0
104.3
103.1
101.6
101.6
98.0
100.1
96.3
102 ,9
110.3
117.4
US,2
136.9
145.7
161.4
176.9
185.8
189.3
182 .2
79.8
?3.1
71.4
74.6
74. 9
78,9
81.1
82.4
95.4
102 ,9
99.6
110.3
129.6
14?. 8
148,1
141,0
119.4
107.3
104.3
101.9
100.4
98.5
100.1
100.0
101.2
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143,1
156.4
171.4
182.0
188.9
185 .8
(OCTOBER 1989)
G. Supplemental Data and Analyses
MI
Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month
Japan
(Yen)
West
Germany
France
(0. mark)
(Franc)
III III 1 1 1 ) 1 1
127.69
129.17
127.11
124.90
124.79
127.47
133.02
133.77
134.32
128.68
123.20
123.61
1.6537
1.6965.
1.6770
1.6710
1.6935
1.7579
1.8466
1.8880
1.8668
1.8165
1.7491
1.7563
5.5808
5.7323
5.6893
5.6704
5.7348
5.9310
6.2241
6.3919
6.3515
6.1975
5.9746
5.9994
127.36
127.74
130.55
132.04
137.86
143.98
140.42
r!41.49
145.07
2142.30
1.8356
1.8505
1.8686
1.8697
1.9461
1.9789
1.8901
rl.9268
1.9502
21.8792
6.2538
6.3004
6.3321
6.3223
6.5815
6.7135
6.4105
r6.5085
6.5855
2
6.3759
Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month
Italy
(Lira)
Canada
(Dollar)
Jap an (y en;
\
(Pound)
X / \r
0.5553
0.5688
0.5456
0.5324
0.5349
0.5628
0.5865
0.5894
0.5938
0.5751
0.5529
0.5477
We:itGer many (d.rnark)
/^
*^*v
\.
*\
'S tJ
1216.88
1249.62
1240.67
1240.99
1258.81
1305.56
1367.26
1397.93
1393.15
1353.36
1300.22
1295.61
1.2855
1.2682
1,2492
1.2353
1.2373
1.2176
1.2075
1.2237
1.2267
1.2055
1.2186
1.1962
89.29
91.09
89.73
88.95
89.74
92.58
96.53
98.29
97.91
95.10
91.91
91.88
1345.12
1355.28
1372.50
1371.80
1415.83
1434.40
1367.39
r 1384. 24
1404.18
2
1378.27
.
1.1913
1.1891
1.1954
1.1888
1.1925
1.1986
1.1891
rl.1758
1.1828
21.1753
95.12
95.77
96.99
97.24
100.81
103.09
99.12
100.44
101.87
2
99.38
•j" "\
/\
^
260
240
200
V\J
"^N
^
\
A
/
f
^
J
J
Ital V (lir<
^'v.
AX
^f .-"I>^ /
NX
/
/
^
/
120
2.8
2.4
2.0
^\
A
r
/
y
1.6
10
?
United Kingdom (po und)
/
f*
J
/\
\ *j A
/V\^
160
V
> ^j
'S
/ -x
E
\A\
A^
'V
9
8
7
/\
^\> J^
J^,
6
EE
\
\ \s
s
r
v^ m
\
\^\\ y\ ^
/
m
s~r
"^*J
/-
vv^
V—' ^^ —^s. ^
^
Exchange value of the U.S. dollar ^
(index: March 1973=100) _, v/
y\
s—
fT
—
^v
^^\
% /v f
f^*
^v^>
III III
)|
1
5
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.5
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
1.6
Canada (dollar)
1989
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
J
F ranee (fra
/"
(March 1973=100)
A
>
0.5638
0.5703
0.5836
0.5880
0.6132
0.6439
0.6147
0.6271
0.6363
2
0.6311
Exchange value
of the U.S.
dollar 1
^v
V
1988
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Ratio scale
320
^^
1989
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
II III III III III III III III
Foregn currency per U.S. dollar—
United
Kingdom
1988
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1
II III 1 1
S'
1.4
f~***
*— V-^
^*v> — s.
EE
\
\
1.2
1.0
180
140
\
\
V
J\ S*EE
1 1 III III III ^
III III III
120
100
60
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
1
This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
2
Average for October 2 through 20.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
105
G. Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index
Basic data
(and
Scries title
unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment i nsu ranee State programs * ( thous . ) . . . .
8, M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. d o l . ) . , .
32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries
dlf fits ion index (percent)
20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars {bil. dol )
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . .
92. Change in m f r s . 1 unfilled orders in 1982
dollars, durable goods, smoothed 2 (bil. d o l . ) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed^ (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 3
(index: 1941-43-10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil dol )
83. Index of consumer expectations 3
(index: 1st Q 1966S100)
910. Composite index of leading indicators'*
(index; 1982^100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate* bil. d o l . )
47 , Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of roughly coincident'*
indicators (index: 1982-100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment 1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to s a l e s in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of
output, m f g , s smoothed 2 (ann. rate, percent). .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . )
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . . .
120. Change in consumer price index for services,
smoothed2 (ann. rate, percent)
930. Composite index of lagging indicators''
(index: 1982^100)
June
1989
41.0
July
1989
41.0
Aug.
1989
40.9
328
338
316
86.93
r82.90
r90.70
47.5
r48.00
46.9
rSO.Ol
44.9
r47.00
Sept.
1989
p41 .0
320
p 8 7 . 15
43.8
p45.8l
104.3
102. 2
105.9
105,2
2.20
r2.22
rl .66
pi. 32
-.23
-.47
-.48
.13
323.73
331 .93
346.61
347.33
2,399. 4
2,416.7
r2,431.3
82.0
85.5
80.3
June
to
July
1989
.00
July
to
Aug.
1989
-.07
Aug.
to
Sept.
1989
.07
-.08
. 19
-.03
-.25
,48
-.21
-.03
. 10
-.06
.01
-.30
-.08
-.05
-. IS
-.06
. 10
-=.02
-. 18
-.11
-.20
-.01
. 14
.24
.01
p2,442.8
.24
.20
.16
p88.6
.13
-. 19
.31
.00
.49
.21
r 144.0
r 144.0
r!44.7
p!45.0
108,607
1:108,767
r!08,855
p!09,064
. 12
.06
.20
2,912.8
r2,922.7
r2,932.4
p2,933.2
.18
. 17
.02
p!42.3
.00
.08
-.03
-.24
.81
NA
-.15
.98
.00
-.47
.36
r!42.G
142.0
456,223
r451,795
r!32.8
r!32.6
142.4
P466,572
133.9
11. 1
12.0
11.3
1 .52
1.54
pi. 50
rl.O
rl. 1
11.07
r390,239
15.87
10.98
r39l,545
ri5.76
rl.5
10,50
r 400 ,91 7
p!5. 79
4.8
4.9
4.8
r!20.S
r!20.0
r!20.3
NA
p!33.9
11.4
-.07
NA
.26
-.52
NA
pi .8
.02
.07
.07
10.50
p398,508
NA
p4.4
pl!9.7
-.05
.08
-.34
.05
-.41
-.28
.00
.53
-.19
,09
NA
-.05
.25
-.27
-.50
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized change for the component by the number of components and dividing that result by the index
standardization factor. See the January 1989 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 97-102) for the standardization factors.
NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised.
series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
2
This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
3
Fhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source: stock
prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
^Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.142; for the coincident index, -0.186; for the lagging index, 0.030.
106
G. Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued
CIBCR Composite Indexes of Leading Indicators
Ratio scale
240
220
200
180
160
CIBCR long-leading index (1967 = 100)
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
CIBCR short-leading index (1967=
80
--1
60
m'Mmi ill 111 mm in in
48 49 SO 51 52 S3 54 55 56 57 SB 59 60 81 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 76 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 69
CIBCR long-leading index (1967=100)
CIBCR short-leading index (1967=100)
Month
January
February. . .
March
April
May ...
June
July
August
September. .
October
November. . .
December. . .
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
171.8
174.9
173.2
175.8
179.0
181.6
182.3
184.5
186.2
183.2
185.8
187.9
188.8
188.3
186.6
192.4
193.3
193.7
195.2
195.5
197.4
197.2
199.4
204.6
203.2
205.0
204.8
205.5
204.1
205.1
207.5
206.7
205.0
205.1
206.1
206.0
206.3
210.5
210.8
212.8
213.9
214.3
216.0
217.3
217.1
215.6
218.0
219,7
219.5
218.5
215.3
219.5
220.3
r221.6
r222.4
r223.6
p225.4
172.2
171.3
172.2
171.7
173.0
173.6
173.9
175.1
176.1
177.1
176.0
178.6
179.8
179.7
180.2
181.5
181.9
182.6
182.5
184.2
185.6
186.1
187.3
190.3
r!89.7
191.4
191.8
191.7
194.3
196.8
196.6
197.8
197.2
r!96.5
195.1
194.0
193.4
194.6
195.0
196.1
r!96.0
r!98.9
197,8
r!98.4
198.3
198.6
199.0
201.3
201.9
201.9
202.5
203.7
202.2
202.6
r201.6
r203.6
P205.8
NOTE: These indexes are compiled by Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR).
The components of each index are listed below, and the source is indicated for each component not shown in BCD.
Long-leading index: Building permits for new private housing units (BCD 29), bond prices (Dow-Jones & Company), ratio
of price to unit labor cost in manufacturing (CIBCR), and deflated M2 money supply (BCD 106).
Short-1 eading index: Average weekly hours in manufacturing (BCD 1), average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance (BCD 5), layoff rate under 5 weeks (CIBCR), deflated new orders for consumer goods and materials (BCD 8), vendor performance (BCD 32), change in business population (CIBCR), deflated contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(BCD 20), inventory change (National Association of Purchasing Management), change in industrial materials prices (Journal of Commerce)» stock prices (BCD 19), and change in deflated total debt (CIBCR).
Further information about these indexes and their non-BCD components may be obtained from the Center for International
Business Cycle Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
107
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Current issue
Series <page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
_ Sources of Series." following this index)
Agricultural products, exports
,.
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer expectations, index
Consumer sentiment, index..,.,
Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01
,
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, 01.
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars..
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl.
,
Prices, manufacturing, Dl .,....„.
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl......
,.„
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
,
Automobiles
Imports ot automobiles and parts
,
Personal consumption expenditures
B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Uans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
.,.,......
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds- -See Interest rates.
Borrowing--See Credit.
Budget--See Government.
Building- ^See Construction,
Building permits, new private housing....
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars.....
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
,„.„..,..
Employment ,.,......,...,
economy..,.
Earnings, real average hourly, private nontarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Index
Sae notes at end sf index.
108
56
83
58
9?4
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973
13
22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38
97
65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76
2/89
12/88
7/89
7/89
7/89
10/88
10/88
10/88
7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
616
55
n
56
92
65
7/89
9/89
93
94
,
33
33
Series
description
C)
7/89
72
72
11/88
11/88
20
37
37
37
23"
23
37
37
37
37
37
56
39
35
35
29 13,25
76
24
67
67
9/89
1/89
24
12
14
12
13
72
65
65
7/89
1/88
7/89
34
21
21
73
73
71
82
4/89
4/89
4/89
11/88
32
32
32
26
33
23
23
15,35
35
32
46
20
20
64
64
1/89
1/89
14
14
24
24
37
48
66
66
75
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/89
22
22
22
51
1/86
9/89
9/89
5
26
26
.....
..,.,..
97
11
965
338
....
914
35
34
29
29
60
70
70
442
90
441
37
51
17
51
18,51
89
62
89
62,89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
9
9
9
9
920
920e
951
940
9
10
39
36
11
23
60
"74"
60
66
10/89
10/89
10/89
10/89
5/88
5
5
21
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
71
4/89
4/89
4/89
32
32
32
345
280
49
45
87
82
11/88
11/88
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
9/89
46
11/88
46
8/88
5
7/89
7/89
53
53
Employment as percent of population
,
Labor force
...,.,
Unemployed.....
,
Coincident indicators
Composite index ......„..„.„.„.,.......
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
,
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded..
Commercial and industrial loans
Leans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector...
,
,
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income.,
,
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector,...,
,
..,.,
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
Rate of change...
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Index
Rate of change,
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Eleven leaders, index
Eleven leaders, rate of change
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows..,..
, ,
Profitability.
604
101
72
112
295
Canada -See International comparisons,
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog...,,.,..,,,.. ,..,.,„.,...
Newly approved
„.......„.,
,
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index,.
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Historical
data
(issue date)
346
49
340
49
87
341
348
349
49
50
50
87
53
19
63
4/89
920
920e
940
10
39
11
60
10/89
10/89
10/89
930
930c
10
39
914
910
910c
915
917
916
10
39
11
11
11
10/89
10/89
•60
60
1/86
10/89
10/89
60
60
1/88
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales....
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer expectations, index
Consumer finished goods, producer pries index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Services
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
Debt-See Credit,
Defense and space equipment, industrial production ....
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers1
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components..
New orders, manufacturing
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Current issue
Series (pagenumbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
13,25 67
9/89
23
24
66
67
5/88
9/88
21
17
248
87
89
249
28
83
334
25
47
25
25
47
25
13
48
12,21
22
67
83
67
67
83
67
97
86
64
65
9/89
10/88
9/89
9/89
10/88
4/89
2/89
5/89
4/89
1/89
40
40
40
40
40
24
'$1
15
12
66
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
33
73
72
73
72
8/89
8/89
8/89
2/88
33
33
33
34
320
322
120
58
49
49
15
22
84,95
84
97
65
3/89
3/89
2/89
12/88
49
49
525
53
90
6/89
55
20
12,23
66
9/88
21
10
116
23
34
66
73
9/88
5/88
21
35
110
32
29
9
69
11/88
101 15,35
72
35
112
32
73
73
71
4/89
4/89
4/89
32
32
32
66
113
95
39
111
33
35
32
15,35
33
32
32
73
72
73
72
72
71
8/89
8/89
8/89
2/88
8/89
9/86
33
33
33
34
31
31
98
331
28
48
8/89
5/89
51
50
10/89
557
54
517
543
580
578
577
525
53
53
54
55
55
53
90
90
91
91
91
90
6/89
6/89
7/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
55
55
56
56
56
55
559
548
588
561
570
564
565
54
53
54
54
55
55
55
91
90
91
91
91
91
91
9/88
9/88
9/88
9/88
6/89
8/88
8/88
17
15
17
15
5
43
43
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
2/88
2/89
34
17
965
951
974
963
966
37
36
38
36
37
5/88
10/89
7/89
4/89
10/89
22
5
37
5
12
962
975
952
950
964
36
38
36
36
37
2/88
7/89
10/89
10/89
9/88
37
5
5
15
971
970
960
972
967
38
38
37
38
37
7/89
10/88
5/88
7/89
10/89
37°
23
37
37
25
973
976
978
977
968
961
'38
38
38
38
37
36
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77
7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
12/88
7/88
'37°
37
37
37
25
5
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series .
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
C)
E
Earnings— See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, civilian
Unemployment rate 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, 01
Equipment— See Investment, capital.
Expectations— See Anticipations and intentions.
Exports— See International transactions.
441
578
577
51
55
55
48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
43
44
45
1
39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16
961
36
89
91
91
61
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74
3/89
6/89
6/89
9
56
56
8/89
8/89
8/89
7/89
8/89
4/89
3/89
6/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
4/89
2/88
8/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
8/89
8/89
5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
5
7/88
5
F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government— See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment— See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Foreign trade— See International transactions.
France— See International comparisons.
Free reserves
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
. . .
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment— See Investment, capital.
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime
119
34
72
6/88
35
94
213
917
33
40
11
72 ,
80
60
11/88
10/88
1/88
35
38
5
311
48
84
8/88
49
93
33
72
11/88
35
14
49
20
63
9/89
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88
263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
311
68
48
30
84
70
8/88
9/89
49
28
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217
19,40
9/89
9/89
9/89
31
20
48
40
63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80
10/88
38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38
46
60
16
16
61
61
3/89
3/89
9
9
1
12,16
5
36
16
61
77
74
61
8/89
961
21
7/88
8/89
5
5
39
40
11/88
8/88
8/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
8/88
9/89
8/88
•
53
53
53
53
53
53
48
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
28
29
89
249
25
13,25
25
47
67
67
67
83
10/88
24
24
40
40
310
48
84
8/88
38
345
280
49
45
87
82
11/88
11/88
46
46
4/89
9/89
9/89
1
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports— See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
•Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production— See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit~See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks :
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
.
Italy
Japan
,
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan . .
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
64
30,47
70,83
9/89
46
346
95
286
49
15,35
45
88
73
82
11/88
11/88
46
33
26
287
225
224
47
40
40
83
80
80
11/88
10/88
10/88
26
11
11
227
40
80
10/88
11
340
49
87
8/88
5
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
8/88
9/89
9/89
5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11
51c
51
108
282
39
14,19
31
45
63
71
82
11/88
30
47
283
284
47
45
83
82
11/88
11/88
47
47
285
348
349
47
50
50
83
S8
88
11/88
7/89
7/89
47
53
53
53
13
335
19
23
48
63
65
85
4/89
7/89
5/89
11
21
51
76
75
557
73
74
47
24
22
54
20
20
14,20,58
1/89
1/89
12
12
13
12
12
12
966
47c
37
39
67
65
91
63
63
63,94
78
75
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
5
962
45
288
289
12,16
36
18
45
47
61
74
62
82
83
11/88
11/88
8
g
8
47
47 .
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
,73
86
9/89
5/88
6/88
6/88
5/88
2/88
5/88
5/88
5/89
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50
733
736
737
738
732
320
735
59
59
59
59
59
49
59
96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
3/89
4/88
60
61
61
61
60
49
61
94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
14,20,58 63,94
94
58
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59
723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725
8/89
11/88
11/88
10/88
9/88
9/88
9/88
9/88
4/89
10/89
1/89
1/89
6/89
ii
10/89
12/87
iz
10/89
25
25
1/88
4/89
2/88
8/89
See notes at end of index.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International eompa rise ns— Continued
Stock prices
Canada ,.,......,......,
,,
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
.0,....
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services........................
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Experts, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
,
,.
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Experts of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
,
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports ot goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of gaods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade
. .
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars.....
Manufacturing and trade, Dl,
,
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
§n order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
..,..
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change— See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars..
Fixed investment current dollars
Nsnresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential percent of GNP .
Total, constant dollars
Tetal, current dollars ,.,....
,
New orders, tiandefense capital goods,
constant dollars............
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
63
63
63
63
63
25
63
667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93
9/89
9/89
7/89
9/89
7/89
10/88
10/88
9/89
7/89
7/89
9/89
7/89
9/89
11/88
10/88
7/89
9/89
9/89
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
255
44
82
10/88
44
250
251
44
47
82
83
10/88
10/88
44
44
30
245
247
559
65
77
915
71
31
70
975
26,42
42
47
54
27
15,27
11
27
26
2?
38
68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
9/89
10/88
10/88
9/88
12/88
8/89
1/88
9/89
9/89
9/89
7/89
40
40
40
17
17
17
17
17
17
37
36
26
68
9/89
17
78
27
68
12/88
17
38
26
68
12/88
17
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
5/88
5/88
5/88
1/86
5/88
22
22
22
'23"
66
66
75
60
66
69
24
67
9/88
17
243
242
86
248
42
42
25
47
81
81
67
83
10/88
10/88
9/89
10/88
40
40
40
40
88
87
89
249
241
240
25
25
25
47
42
42
67
67
67
83
81
81
9/89
9/89
9/89
10/88
10/88
10/88
40
40
40
40
40
40
27
23
66
9/88
15
24
23
66
9/88
15
20
10
100
61
970
12,23
23
24
24
38
66
66
67
67
76
9/88
9/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
21
21
'23
23
652
651
57
57
93
93
9/89
9/89
57
57
21
J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor east per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost pec unit of output, manufacturing
Index
Percent change
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm businessLabor force—See Employment,
Lagging indicators
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
,.,
See notes at end ef index.
110
,
68
63
30
30
70
70
9/89
10/88
28
28
62
62
26
30
15
29
70
97
70
2/89
2/89
10/88
28
'28'
930
930c
952
10
39
36
60
10/89
10/89
10/89
"5"
74
5
Current issue
Series . (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Leading indicators
Composite index
fVH
. ...
rf
'
. • ""' " "
udoiimes of uubmt!y> la lures
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
5
""" "
910
910c
950
14
104
10
39
36
33
31
'?4
72
71
10/89
10/89
10/89
7/89
4/89
"5"
34
29
78
27
68
12/88
17
.. .
38
84
8
26
20
12,21
68
64
64
12/88
1/89
4/89
17
14
15
917
11
60
1/88
5
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
4/89
4/89
4/89
4/89
4/89
8/88
4/89
9/86
6/88
5/88
29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35
27
24
8
23
23
12,21
66
66
64
9/88
9/88
4/89
15
15
15
20
12,23
66
9/88
21
10
548
7
6
23
53
21
21
9/88
9/88
4/89
4/89
21
15
15
15
964
971
37
38
66
90
64
64
77
75
76
9/88
7/89
'is'
88
87
86
248
25
25
25
47
67
67
67
83
9/89
9/89
9/89
10/88
40
40
40
40
517
543
721
53
53
58
90
90
94
6/89
6/89
6/89
55
55
58
580
54
91
7/89
56
49
20
63
9/89
14
62
62
370
358
82
84
21
30
15
50
50
20
20
16
70
97
88
88
64
64
61
2/89
2/89
10/88
10/88
1/89
1/89
8/89
28
°52"
52
14
14
5
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
3/89
3/89
3/89
9
9
9
55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83
9/89
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
292
293
614
46
46
56
82
83
92
11/88
11/88
7/89
48
48
56
......
60
Loans— See Credit.
M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials capacity utilization rate
.
Materials new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices— See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade— See International transactions.
Military- -See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets change in total
Money supply Ml constant dollars
Money supply Ml percent changes
Money supply M2 constant dollars
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
N
National defense— See Defense.
National Government— See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense,. current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid Defense Department
QECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays Defense Department
Output— See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
labor cost per unit of
Index
Percent change
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
.
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income— See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports
, .
37
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Current issue
Series . (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices— See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Services
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices— See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI. , , .
Production— See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income ,. . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, DS
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
9/88
9/88
21
21
10/88
10/88
10/88
'23'
20
10
100
61
970
90
12,23
23
24
24
38
17
66
66
67
67
76
62
320
322
120
49
49
15
84,95
84
97
3/89
3/89
2/89
49
49
311
310
26
48
48
29
84
84
70
8/88
8/88
10/88
49
38
28
330
333
331
334
335
332
98
48
48
48
48
48
48
28
85
86
85
86
85
86
69
5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
8/89
50
51
50
51
51
50
51
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
10/89
1/88
25
25
98
99
28
13,28
69
69
8/89
2/89
51
25
19
968
26
13,28
37
29
69
75
70
12/88
12/88
10/88
25
25
28
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
7/89
7/89
7/89
6/89
2/88
37
37
37
55
35
88
25
67
9/89
40
3/89
23
9
370
358
916
50
50
11
88
88
60
10/88
10/88
1/88
52
52
5
18
16
80
79
28
28
29
29
69
69
69
69
9/89
9/89
9/89
9/89
26
26
26
26
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
45
47
38
37
29
11
29
82
83
76
75
70
60
69
11/88
11/88
26
26
37
37
27
5
26
81
282
29
45
70
82
9/89
11/88
26
47
283
47
83
11/88
47
967
23
284
37
28
45
79
75
69
82
10/89
25
25
47
285
93
89
47
33
25
83
72
67
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
:.
Current issue
Series . (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
249
47
83
10/88
40
59
54
22
22
65
65
8/89
8/89
20
20
213
40
80
10/88
38
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14.22
22
38
15,2/
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
9/88
8/89
8/89
7/89
8/89
8/89
8/89
17
17
17
37
17
20
20
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
26
48
48
48
48
98
99
588
28
13,28
54
69
69
91
8/89
2/89
9/88
51
25
17
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
10/89
1/88
25
25
19
968
13,28
37
69
75
12/88
12/88
25
25
114
115
34
34
72
73
5/88
5/88
35
35
91
60
5
962
15,18
16
12,16
36
62
61
61
74
3/89
3/89
4/89
2/88
9
9
8
8
446
445
447
444
37
51
51
51
51
18,51
89
89
89
89
62,89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
9
9
9
9
43
44
45
18
18
18
62
62
62
3/89
3/89
8/89
9
9
8
561
92
96
25
54
13
21
21
91
97
64
64
9/88
2/89
9/88
9/88
'is'
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
107
108
32
31
31
12,21
71
71
64
8/88
4/89
2/89
30
30
17
W
Wages and salaries— See Compensation.
West Germany— See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices— See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index
1
12,16
5
36
61
77
74
8/89
961
7/88
5
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures— See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
s
Salaries— See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices— See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
.•
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government— See Government,
Stock prices— See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus— See Government.
T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
U
7/89
5/88
9/89
1/88
9/89
R
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
1/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
9/89
47
35
40
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
Civilian
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars, change
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars, change
United Kingdom— See International comparisons.
15
15
V
NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.
111
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are tor
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. "M" following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).--The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1
and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysts
(23,65)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(26,68)
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source 2
(26,68)
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2
(29,70)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).Source 1
(28,69)
40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)
I-A. Composite Indexes
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1
(28,69)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)
910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99,
106) (M).-Sourcel
(10,39,60)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20,29) (M).-Source 1
(60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M) Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Sourcel
(11,60)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
930, Composite index of seven lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109,120) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(1160)
I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).™U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(12,16,61)
28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67)
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q). Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Sourcc 2
(21,64,77)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(M).-Sourcesland2
(26,68)
7, Manufacturers* new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index
(M).—National Association of Purchasing Management and Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(12,21,64)
8, Manufacturers* new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).-Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)
9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)
112
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board
(32,71)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricuUural activities (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).~Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q)-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1
(19,63)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1 (19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(22,65)
59. Sates of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)
61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars (Q).-Source 2
(24,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70,97)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of work-
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods
(EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)
92. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)
68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current
dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
ing age (M).-Sourcesland3
(17,62)
91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source3
(15,18,62)
dollars, durable goods industries (M).— Sources 1,
2, and 3
(13,97)
93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)
98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 2
(24,67)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
4
(31,71)
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M),-Sources 1
and 4
(31,71)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sates in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order (EOM).—Source 2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
Source 4
(20,64)
83. Index of consumer expectations (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(13,97)
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4
(31,71)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources land 4
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
116.
117.
87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
118.
89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
(31,71)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel
(25,67)
88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)
(13,31,71)
Sources land 4
(31,71)
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(15,35,73)
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source4
(32,72)
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, *4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(32,72)
Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
(34,72)
119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
120. Change in consumer price index for services (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(15,97)
I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of seven lagging indicator components
(M).-Sourcel
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(37,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 349 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M),-Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sourcesl and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
38-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of new plant and equipment expenditures by business, 21 industries (Q).—Sources 1
and 2
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976, Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977, Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—
about 400 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
245. Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
978, Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a
ll-A. National Income and Product
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(44,82)
(47,83)
30, Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (QV
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars
64, Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).^Sourcel
(30,47,70,83)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
200, Gross national product in current dollars (Q)/ •
Sou reel
(40,80)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
213, Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).--Source 1
257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(40,80)
(Q).-Sourcel
(Q).-Sourcel
(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Sourcel
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
217, Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sources land 2
(40,80)
260. Government purchases of goods and services in
220. National income in current dollars (Q). Source
1
(45,82)
261. Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
(43,81)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M), Source
1
(40,63)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).Source 1
(40,80)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-
vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
(43,81)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q),
(47,83)
Source 1
290. Gross saving (Q).—Source 1
(46,82)
292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1
(46,83)
295, Business saving (Q).—Source 1
(46,82)
298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)
II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q).-Sourcel
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).—Source 1
(48,84)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
322, Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).=-Source3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,50,87)
225. Disposable persona! income in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1
(40,80)
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q),-Sources land 2
(40,80)
vices as a percent of gross national product (Q). Source 1
(47,83)
230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q), -Source 1
(41,80)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
268. State and local government purchases of goods and
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,50,88)
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Sourcel
(47,83)
348, Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)
233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q) .--Sou rce 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).™Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).--Source 1
(41,81)
services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
280. Compensation of employees (Q) .-Source 1
(43,81)
(43,81)
(45,82)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
283.
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
284, Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).=-Source 1
(45,82)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Souree 1
(42,81)
114
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,50,87)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,50,87)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q) .-Sou rce 3 (50,88)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)
tl-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M). Source 3
(18,51,62,89)
286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua-
441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
tion and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)
442. Civilian employment (M).-Source3
(51,89)
287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q) .-Sou rce 1
(47,83)
288, Net interest (Q).-Sou reel
(45,82)
444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age(M).~Source3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).SourceS
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)
II-D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)
502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q)-
Source 1
(52,90)
511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source2
(53,90)
570. Employment, defense products industries (M),Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-US. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production <M)Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).Source2
(56,92)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M)Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports (M).-Source 2
(56,92)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
II-E. U.S. International Transactions
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
CentralediStatistica(Rome)
(58,94)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)
557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M)Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).-lstituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. united Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stoc* prices (M)-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltaiia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)
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