Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1969
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OCTOBER 1969
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are™
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A, Beckman—Specificationsforcomputer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall=Collection and compilation of basic data.
(Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Bureau of the
Budget. This committee consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
George Hay Brown, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of the Budget
Chairman
William H. Branson, Council of Economic Advisers
A. Ross Eckler, Bureau of the Census
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most eomprehens/ve single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coincides, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide Information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues
are $1.50. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Bus/ness Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by stu*
dents of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
to make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Goveinmet
Printing Office, Washington, D.C, 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.
BCD
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
1969
)ata Through September
Jeries ESI No. 69-10
1
1
1
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to ReadCharts._
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
JUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
)CTOBER
ui
New Features and Changes for This Issue..
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A3
—
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
,
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
18
21
23
26
28
30
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
46
47
52
54
-
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2
E3
E5
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
56
57
59
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl
Consumer Prices..........................................................................................62
Industrial Production...................................................................................63
Stock Prices.................................................................................................64
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
AS
A6
A7
A9
Gross National Product
...............................................................................
65
National and Personal Income.................................................. .................. 65
Personal Consumption Expenditures............................................................66
Gross Private Domestic Investment ........................................................... 66
Foreign Trade ............................................................................................... 67
Government Purchases of Goods and Services........... ................................. 67
Final Sales and Inventories..........................................................................67
National Income Components ....................................................................... 67
Saving..........................................................................................................68
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment ......................... -...... .............. .... .............. 69
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade............................................71
Fixed Capital Investment............................................................,................. 72
Inventories and Inventory Investment ........................................................ .. 74
Prices, Costs, and Profits............................................................................75
Money and Credit........................................................................................76
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes......................................................................................78
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series............................................... .......................................... 79
Diffusion Indexes.....................„..................................................................80
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade...............................................................................................82
Balance of Payments and Major Components ............................................ 83
Federal Government Activities, .................................................... .............. 85
Price Movements............................................................................ ........... 86
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP .................... .. ........................... ......................... 87
Analytical Ratios....................................................................................... 88
Diffusion Indexes......................................................................... ............. 89
Selected Diffusion Index Components .................... .......................... ......... 92
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices....................................................................................... 98
Industrial Production................................................................................99
Stock Prices.............................................................................................. 100
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability csee August issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors ...................................................... ... ...... 101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series.............................................. ........ 102
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series .......................................................... 107
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1961 ................................................... ............................................. 112
Index—Series Finding Guide ......................................................... ........... 113
Titles and Sources of Series............................................................................115
ii
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent find-
1. The series on manufacturing and trade inventories (series
31, 71, and 851) have been revised from January 1967 to date to
reflect a revision in the nondurable goods inventories of merchant wholesalers. Further information concerning this revision
nay be obtained from the Bureau of the Census, Business Division,
Dr from the Office of Business Economics, Business Structure
Division.
ings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
2. The series on money supply (series 85 and 98) have been
revised from 1965 and 1964, respectively, to reflect the source
agency's adjustments to benchmarks for June and December 1968
and for June 1969. The revisions also include the application
Df new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors
Df the Federal Reserve System, Banking Section.
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
3. Series 46 on help-wanted advertising in newspapers has been
revised from 1960 to date. This revision reflects primarily the
source agency1s change in the weights used in constructing the
Index. Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the National Industrial Conference Board, General
Economics Department, 845 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10022.
A description of this series is scheduled to be shown in
appendix D of BCD in the near future.
4. The revisions for the series on factory employment (series
1, 2, 3, and 41), previously shown from 1967 to date, have now
been carried back over the full period of the revision. The
revised data, which begin in 1958 for each series, are shown in
appendix C.
5. Appendix C presents historical data for series 1, 2, 3,
K,1, 45, 46, 85, 98, 616, and 621.
6. Appendix D presents descriptions for the national income
ptnd product series included in section A.
Che November issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on November 28«
iii
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
DEFENSE INDICATORS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 400 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicatorst
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL, ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among ihem. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-ll variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organised into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentoons
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections Is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the re=
port. The charts begin with 1948 (except
In section C where they begisn with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. Art
index appears at the back ©f each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used \n this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expend/tares is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging -indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign),
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing, Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there ;are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that of the
coincident index. This facilitates compari-
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic
and Cyclical Timing
Ay
A.
Economic
Process
Ay
\y
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
\y
Cyclical
Timing
111. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COST;;,
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(L series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market in
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding deb
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loan
and mortgage
(2 series)
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI, MONEY
AND CREDH
(17 series)
Ay
Ay
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Backlog of investment
Comprehensive
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
sons among the leading, coincident, and
lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTCNTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and Ihence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
, SECTION D
;
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
!n addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4,
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected group
of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month
spans or for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Basic Data
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
20 «TXxmonth f°r which data are
("6" = June)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Roman number indicates latest
g
v/ quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data,
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale H" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines fcr various series are directly comparable.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc,)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data,
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-r 5-, or 6-termJ moving averages are plotted l /2, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
. RAJ
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1966
1967
1968
Percent change
2dQ
1968
3dQ
1968
4th Q
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
1969
3dQ
1969
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
</>
1
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gron Notional Product
205.
210,
215.
217.
„
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
750.0
658.1
113.9
3*807
3*341
793.5
674.6
117.6
3*984
3»388
865*7
707.6
122.3
4f302
3*517
858.7
705.8
121.7
4*274
3*513
876.4
712.8
122.9
4*350
3*538
892,5
718.5
124.2
4*418
3*557
908,7
723.1
125.7
4*488
3*571
924*8
726.7
127.3
4*556
3*580
942.3
730,4
129.0
4*630
3*589
1*8
0*6
1.2
1*6
0.4
1.8
0.5
1.3
1.5
0.3
1.9
0.5
1,3
1.6
0.3
200
205
210
215
217
620.6
587,2
511.9
458.9
654.0
629.4
546.5
477.7
714.4
687.9
590-0
497.6
707.4
680*1
587.4
497.4
724.1
696.1
593.4
498.9
737.3
711*2
604,3
502.1
751.3
724.4
610.2
502.6
765.7
740*5
622.0
506.2
NA
756.2
638.8
514.3
1.9
1.9
1*0
0-1
1.9
2.2
1.9
0.7
NA
2.1
2.7
1.6
220
222
224
225
2t599
2*745
2*933
2t924
2*946
2.991
3*014
3t065
3*139
0*8
1.7
2,4
226
2i331
2*399
2*474
2*476
2*477
2*485
2*482
2*494
2*527
-0.1
0*5
1.3
227
466,3
418.1
70,8
45,4
25.3
206,9
188.6
492.3
430.3
73,0
48.1
24.9
215,1
204.2
536.6
452.6
83.3
53.2
30.2
230.6
222.8
530.3
449.0
81.8
52.6
29.2
228.5
220*0
544.9
458.2
85.8
54.1
31.7
233.3
225*8
550,7
457.6
86.3
54.9
31.4
234.3
230.1
562.0
462.9
88.4
57.5
30.9
238,6
235.0
572.8
466.2
90.6
59.2
31.4
242.1
240.1
581.6
NA
90.3
NA
NA
246.4
244.9
2.1
1.2
2.4
4.7
-1.6
1.8
2.1
1.9
0,7
2.5
3.0
1.6
1.5
2.2
1,5
NA
-0.3
NA
NA
1.8
2.0
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
121,4
81,6
28.5
53.1
25,0
14,8
116.0
83.7
27.9
55.7
25.0
7.4
126.3
88.8
29,3
59.5
30*2
7.3
126*6
86*4
28.3
58.1
30.3
9.9
125.2
88.1
29.0
59.1
29.9
7.2
133.9
91.5
30.1
61.4
31.9
10.5
135*2
95,3
32.3
63.0
33.3
6.6
137,4
97.8
32.1
65.7
32.7
6.9
140.9
100.5
34.0
66.5
31,1
9,4
1*0
4.2
7.3
2.6
4.4
-3,9
1,6
2*6
-0.6
4.3
-1.8
0.3
2.5
2.8
5.9
1.2
-4.9
2.5
240
241
242
243
244
245
do
do
do
200. GNP In current dollars
5,3
43,4
38,1
5*2
46.2
41.0
2*5
50*6
48.1
3.4
50.7
47,3
3.6
53.4
49.7
1*2
50.6
49.4
1*5
47.6
46.1
1*6
57*1
55.5
2.0
57.5
55,5
0.3
-5.9
-6.7
0.1
20.0
20.4
0*4
0*7
0.0
250
252
253
do
do
do
do
156.8
77.8
60,7
79,0
180.1
90.7
72.4
89,3
200.3
99.5
78.0
100*7
198,4
99.0
77.9
99.4
202.5
100,9
78.8
101*7
206,7
101.9
79.3
104.8
210*0
101.6
79.0
108.5
212.9
100.6
78.5
112.3
217,8
103,3
80.6
114.5
1.6
-0.3
-0.4
3.5
1*4
-1.0
-0.6
3.5
2.3
2.7
2,7
2,0
260
262
264
266
Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
1958=100
Ann, rate, dot. . .
do
A2. Notionol and Ptrsonol Income
.... Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
do
224. Disposable personal income, current dol ...
do
225, Disposable personal income, constant dol . .
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol ...
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
220. National income, current dollars
A3. Personol Consumption Exptndifturts
230
231.
232
233.
234.
236
237
Ann.ratc,bil.dol. .
Total current dollars
do
Total, constant dollars.
do
Durable goods current dollars
do
Durable poods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
do
Automobiles, current dollars
do
Nondurable goods, current dollars
do
Services current dollars
A4. Grot* Private Domestic Investment
240,
241.
242.
243.
244
245.
do
Gross private domestic investment, total . . .
..do. . .
Fixed investment, total nonresident! al
do
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
do
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . . ,
... ..do
Fixed investment residential structures
do
Change in business inventories, total. ....
A5. Foreign Trade
253 Imports
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262
264
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
270. Final sales, durable goods
271. Change 2in business inventories, durable
goods
274. Final sates, nondurable goods ..<..,
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods2
do
146.2
157.0
171.4
168.9
173.7
176.6
181,6
185.5
NA
2*8
2.1
NA
270
.. ..do
do
10.5
222.3
3.9
234.1
5.3
252,3
6.8
250.4
5.1
256.1
7.4
256.4
4.8
259.7
4*9
264.1
NA
NA
-2.6
1.3
0.1
1.7
NA
NA
271
274
do
4.3
3,5
2.0
3.1
2.1
3.1
1*8
2.1
NA
-1.3
0.3
NA
275
do
do
,.do
do
do
435.5
61.3
20.0
82.4
21.4
467.4
61.9
20*8
79.2
24.7
513.6
63.8
21*2
87*9
27.9
507.0
63.6
21.2
88.2
27.5
519.8
64,1
21.2
90.6
28.4
532*3
64*1
21.4
90.3
29.3
546.0
64.6
21.5
89.5
29.8
558.2
66.5
21.6
89.2
30.3
571.7
67,3
21.7
NA
30.9
2.6
0.8
0.5
-0.9
1«?
2.2
2.9
0.5
-0.3
1.7
2,4
1.2
0.5
NA
2.0
280
282
284
286
288
do
do
124,9
32.5
119.2
40.4
128.4
38.4
128.8
42.3
129,1
33.2
135.4
38.0
138.5
32,5
142*7
33.3
NA
41.1
2.3
-14.5
3.0
2.5
NA
23.4
290
292
24.8
68.6
-14.5
23*4
73*3
-6.7
24.1
73.0
-10*8
25.6
73.7
-3.5
23.6
74.6
-0.9
2g,3
75.9
7*8
21.3
77.2
10.9
NA
78.6
NA
-5.5
1.7
8.7
-4.5
1.7
3.1
NA
1.8
NA
294
296
296
-1.7
-7.7
»9«4
-9.5
-8.3
-5*9
-2.4
-1.0
2.4
3.5
1.4
?07
A8. Notional Income Components
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving total
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
2%. Capital consumption allowances
El.
do
., do
do
27.4
63.9
1.1
Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP MD Potential less actual)2
do
-11. O
Basic data 1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1967
1968
IStQ
1969
2dQ
1969
Percent change
July
to
Aug.
1969
3dQ
1969
July
1969
Aug.
1969
Sept.
1969
194*0
-0.5
0.8
1.8
-0.3
-0,3
-0.9
-1.5
-0.5
40.7
-0.2
-4,3
-0,3
Aug.
to
Sept.
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
Series number
|
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7, Compositt IndtKtt
810. 12 leading Indicators, reverse trend adj. . 1963-100
do
820. 5 coincident indicators
do
830. 6 lagging indicators
129,5
143,2
150.9
141.4
156,6
164.8
165*8
178.9
152*4
169*1
184.9
152,5
171,4
192.4
152.3
170.7
189.8
151.6
172,0
193.3
104,3
107.1
101,0
114,6
106.4
114.2
101,8
116.6
101.9
107.0
118.9
103*6
118.7
101.0
107.7
118.5
105.4
118.6
101.7
NA
118.2
106,4
115,5
NA
106.6
117.9
106.6
116.6
106.3
117.5
105.6
114*9
98.2
97.7
NA
119,1
107.1
114.9
MA
40.7
149.9
153*6
171,4
It3
»0.3
0.<4
1,7
2.0
3.4
0.1
1.4
4.1
810
820
830
LEAD/NO INDICATOR SECTOR
813,
814,
815,
816.
817,
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
do
do
do
do
do
98.3
NA
1.4
1.4
0*0
NA
0.7
-0.3
1.7
-0.1
0,7
NA
-0,3
0.9
-2,6
NA
813
814
815
816
817
Bl. Employment and Untmploymont
LIAD/NO mprCATOftl
Marginal Employment Adjustments;
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. , , , Hours
40.6
4. Nonagri. placements, alt industries
Ann. rate, thous. . 5 t 8 l 7
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
Per 100 employ . . 4.4
*5, Avg. weekly initial claims, State 3
225
unemployment Insurance (inverted ) — Thousands . . ,
1.4
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted3)2, . . Per 100 employ ..
40.7
40.5
40.7
5t7i6
5t352
5t356
40*7
5tl48
5t352
40*6
5*124
4f968
4.6
4.7
4.9
NA
4.8
4.5
NA
194
1.2
LS3
1*1
186
1.1
198
NA
197
1.2
196
1*1
201
NA
373
206
365
228
383
231
337
229
358
227
345
224
337
236
131,4
134.6
137.5
139.0
139.7
139.4
139.9
139. a
65,8
70.5
67.8
72.1
69.5
73.8
70.0
73.8
70.4
74.5
70.2
74.3
70.4
74.6
70.4
74,7
0.5
0.1
0.2
»3.0
NA
-2.6
NA
0.5
0.1
0.2
-1.6
0.0
0.0
-3.9
NA
-6.5
NA
1
4
2
5
3
ROUQHLY COWC/DfNT /NO/CATOR5
Job Vacancies:
49, Nonagri. job openings unfilled *
46. Help-wanted advertising
Thous., EOF....
1957-59=100 ....
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
Ann. rate, billion
establishments.
man-hours
Millions
*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri activities . . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3 ) 8 . . . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment
do
rate (Inverted3)2
40, Unemployment rate, married males
3 a
do . . , ,
(inverted )
348
186
-3.6
-1,3
-P.. 3
!5.4
0.4
0.3
0,4
-0.1
0.1
-C.5
0*0
0.1
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.5
4,0
2.5
2.2
2.1
2*0
2.2
2.2
2.1
2,2
0.1
-0.1
i.e
1*6
1.4
1*5
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.7
0.1
-0*2
0,6
0*5
0.4
d.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
Ann. rate, bil.dol . ,
, , .do
1957-59=100 ....
793,5
674.6
865.7
707.6
908.7
723*1
924.8
726.7
942.3
730.4
158.1
165.4
170.2
172.6
174.2
174.6
174.3
173.8
Comprehensive Income:
*52, Personal income
Ann. rate, bit. do),
do
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr , . .
629,4
687.9
724*4
740.5
756,2
759.8
178.6
188.5
193.5
197.4
751.4
196.0
757.5
163.8
198,1
198.2
0.8
1*1
1» 068
It 163
It 239
917.9
352*8
It 245
it 253
NA
858.4
338.9
It212
902.1
348.8
NA
786,2
933.0
352.8
349.1
352.9
356.4
4.9
1,3
-12.0
1.1
0.7
0.0
0.5
0,6
0.9
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0,9
-0.2
49
46
46
41
42
43
-0,2
45
-0.1
40
LAGGING /ND/CATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
* 44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted 3 ) 2
do
0*0
-0.1
o.o
44
B2, Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
KQUQHLY CO/NC/DENT WO/CATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200, QNP in current dollars
*205. 6NP In 195Nollars
*47, Industrial production
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57, Final sales
*54, Sales of retail stores
do
do
do
314.0
i.e
-0<>3
0.5
1.4
1.9
O.S
0,9
200
205
47
0.3
0*1
2,2
2*7
2.1
2.0
52
53
0.6
KA
1.1
1*0
2.2
1.3
1.1
MA
1,6
0.0
56
57
54
NA
NA
12
13
-0.2
B3. Flxtd Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13, New business incorporations
1957-59^100 , . ,
Ann. rate, thous, .
107,7
117.8
124.7
256.5
NA
NA
124.2
233.2
123*5
281.6
124.6
207.8
285.2
277.9
NA
NA
-0,3
-2*6
NA
NA
334.5
359.4
360.4
375,3
372.8
365.8
387.4
216
173
103.3
-1.9
22.7
-1.8
5.9
-19*9
New Investment Commitments:
*6, New orders, durable goods industries
Ann.rate,bil.del,. 302.3
8. Construction contracts, total value
issMMdd....
155
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment , . ,Ann.rate.bil.del..
75.4
11, New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
de
23.0
24, New orders, mach. and equip, industries , ,. . . do
63.0
9, Construction contracts, commercial
Ann. rate.mil. sq.
and Industrial buildings .
ft. flour space . .
703
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann. rate, thous. . It 273
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
1957-59-ioO.,..
95.6
174
191
191
188
176
85.0
24.8
69.7
93.3
26.6
76.5
96.4
29.9
80.2
79,6
76.2
74.9
87.7
-1.7
17. a
793
It 498
112.9
912
It 692
119.8
922
If 496
116.0
841
If 405
101*8
869
It 349
102.6
864
It 369
104.0
790
It 498
-0,6
-8*6
9t'l
84.07
20.02
85.16
85,91
21*54
86.60
86*37
85.98
86.60
20*48
95.8
92.9
91*2
NA
98.7
1.5
1.4
13.3
-St.',
-1.0
9.8
0.3
0.0
3.3
12.4
4tl
-1*6
-0,6
NA
6
e
10
11
4.S
-0.7
24
1.1
-11.6
-8.8
-6.1
-3.3
-12.2
9
7
29
ROUGHLY COfNCfDffNT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96, Unfilled orders, durable goods Industries4. Bil.dol., EOF., .
do
97. Backlog of capital approp.,mfg,*
80.58
20.41
NA
-0.5
0*7
0.9
5.E
0.8
NA
96
97
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con
Basic data1
Series title
1967
Percent change
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
July
1969
1968
1969
1969
1969
July
to
Aug.
1969
Sept
Aug.
1969
1969
Aug.
IstQ
2dQ
to
Sept.
to
2dQ
1969
1969
Series nunber
Unit
of
measure
to
3dQ
1969
R. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capitol Investment-Can.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61, Business expend., new plant and equip • • • Ann. rate, fail. dol.
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
61.69
64.11
68.90
70.20 a72.25
76.90
82,69
90.56
90,18
1.9
91.18
93.76
NA
61
NA
69
2,5
245
NA
0.8
NA
31
•O
4
0
37
NA
2.8
2.9
0.3
NA
-0.1
NA
20
-3
26
-2
32
NA
-0.4
B4. Inventories and Inventory Invtttment
LEADING WD/CATOffS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change In business inventories, all
industries3.
*31. Change In book value, manufacturing
and trade Inventories2
„
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Ann. rate, billion
rlnllart
do
Percent
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies'"1 .
26, Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 dp — ftrcent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
Ann. rate billion
25. Change in unfilled orflers, durable goods
2
dollars
industries
7.4
6.5
10*1
10,6
11.4
44
51
46
50
0,1
1.4
1.1
65
64
59
NA
16.4
50
51
1.0
NA
1.1
65
62
59
6.0
NA
51
-10.4
48
-0.5
63
NA
0
-1.6
4
65
6
2
8
44
53
61
69
67
66
2.6
3.5
4,3
3.0
2.8
5,5
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories*.. Bil.doL, EOP... 143,7
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
of finished goods4
26.81
153,8
156.4
159.3
NA
160.6
161.1
NA
0.3
NA
1.9
NA
71
29,13
29.61
30.45
NA
30,66
30.96
NA
1,0
NA
2.8
NA
65
100.4
97.8
105.5
110-4
114,9
112.4
115,0
117.4
2,3
2.1
4.6
4.1
23
94.5
94.7
94.2
0.3
0,8
68
-4.6
2
66
7.4
-10.1
-2
12.0
-1.3
-0.2
25
LAGGING INDICATOR*
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEAD/NO INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23, Industrial materials prices©
1957-59=100 ....
Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks^)
1941-43=10
91.9
98.7
100.9
101.7
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
47.3
49.8
52.2
51.8
NA
-0.8
NA
16
11.4
11,3
11.1
NA
NA
-0.2
-0.1
NA
NA
22
15
17
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating
corporate all industries2
=
15, Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg,2
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg,, . — •
Percent
11.9
Cents
5,0
1957-59=100 .... 100,7
5.1
5.0
4.9
94.5*
-0.5
-7.1
19
99.2
99.8
99.9
99.5
100*4
99.1
99.0
109,0
109,4
1.11.4
111.7
112.2
112.8
112.8
113.7
112.4
113.5
112.8
113.6
113.2
113.9
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.7
1,0
0.5
0,8
55
58
0.723
110*3
0.745
112.0
0.755
113.0
NA
114.3
113.1
114.6
115.1
1.3
0.4
1.3
0.9
NA
1.2
68
62
-10.3
-1,2
-1,3
-0.1
0.1
-0.4
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities <g) . 1957*59=100 .... 106.3
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods <g> .
106.7
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68, Labor cost per unit of jjross product,
•62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Dollars
0.706
1957-59=100 .... 106.0
B6. Money ond Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98, Change in 2
money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
deposits
do
85 Change in money supply22
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
33, Change in mortgage debt
*113, Change in consumer installment debt 2 ... .....do.......
do
112 Change In business loans 2
do
110 Total orivate borrowing
10,6
6.4
16.7
3,2
4.4
66.4
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.3)©.
do
1.27
39. Delinquency 2
rate, Installment loans
(inverted^ *
Percent, EOP . . . 1.74
9.0
7.0
20,0
8.9
7.6
-0.6
4.1
21.6
8*3
0.7
4.4
21.4
9.6
-6.6
0.2
NA
NA
2.2
NA
-8.4
1,8
16.6
7.5
2,7
-1.2
21.3
7.2
-5.2
0.0
NA
NA
8.9
-1.9
-3.0
4.7
-0*3
-7,9
79,0
10.3
85.7
10.8
81,0
0.94
1.00
1.21
1.00
1.71
1.51
1.64
1,70
NA
1.70
-207
-592
-956
-Ii074
-946
-849
-128
5.34
6.84
5.26
4.45
6.14
7,46
5.88
5.03
7.01
8.05
6.02
6.00
7.13
8,36
6.32
6.26
-0.01
-0.05
9.1
1.2
NA
NA
14,1
1.3
0.3
-0.2
1.3
0.5
-5.5
1.35
0.75
0.88
NA
44.4
NA
-17,3
-21.0
NA
-0.13
-97
411
-7,3
-4,2
NA
NA
-8,6
NA
98
85
33
113
112
110
17.4
14
-0.06
39
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93, Free reserves (inverted 3)2 <g>
Money
114,
116,
115,
117.
Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate 2 ®
Corporate bond yields22 ®
Treasury bond yields 2©
Municipal bond yields <a
Million dollars...
„
„
Percent
do
do
.,/.. do
194
4.33
6.08
4.85
3.94
-If003
6,24
7.73
5.91
5.43
7.05
8.16
6.14
6.00
7.00
8.06
6.07
5.75
0,01
0.25
0,12
0.31
0.30
0.26
0.10
0.27
0.03
0.40
-47
93
o.ai
114
116
115
117
0.43
0.23
0,57
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
July
to
Aug.
1969
Sept
1969
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
July
1969
1969
1969
1969
88.1
72.3
90.2
74.7
92.6
77'. 0
78.0
93.2
76.7
93.8
77.4
78,0
6.68
7,19
7.32
8.02
7.86
8,16
8.82
8.37
8.36
8.36
8.40
1967
1968
Outstanding Debt:
Bil.dol., EOF...
66, Consumer installment debt*
do
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding *. . .
79,2
65.1
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67, Bank rates on short-term bus, loans2©, . . Po front
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ©
6.00
6,56
Aug.
1969
Aug.
to
Sept.
1959
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
gdQ
to
3dQ
S9SS
y
1
1
B, CYCLICAL WD!CATORS--Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGC/NG WDfCATORS
NA
0,6 s
0.9
NA
o.oo
NA
0.8
0.34
2.7
3.1
0.54
0.14
NA
1.3
0,96
0»31
66
72
67
118
D, OTHER KEY INDICATORS
01. Foreign Trode
500, Merchandise trade balance2
Ann. rate.bil.doL.
do
502. Exports excluding military aid
506, Export orders, durable goods except motor
do
vehicles
508, Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. - . . 1957-59-100....
Ann,rate,bil.dol..
512. Genera! imports
<U1
31.0
1,0
34,1
-0.3
30.3
0.9
39,4
2,3
39,5
10. 6
230
12.3
26,9
33.1
do
do
-3.54
-3.42
0.17
1,64
do
-12,7
-5.2
do
151.1
176.3
198.1
202.3
163.8
181.5
188.5
189.3
78.0
86,6
28.9
47.5
79.0
85.5
24,2
48.9
25.2
39.6
78.5
74.4
17.0
44.7
21.1
14,9
1,2
6.6
39.9
NA
NA
2.1
-12.4
3.8
0*8
-1*7
NA
NA
-3<.9
80.6
42*8
20*6
40.6
3.3
193.7
72.4
81,0
26.1
42,5
38.1
2.5
NA
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
1.3
241
13.4
241
30.6
14.2
262
38,6
NA
NA
37.2
14.6
291
36.8
255
38.2
36,7
1.2
30.0
6.0
8,7
26.1
A.4
500
0.3
502
NA
NA
506
508
512
-3,6
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
520 Liquidity balance basis^.2*
§22 Official settlements basis
-6.61 -14.84
4,57
4.97
NA
NA
13.0
NA
. 1! .
-8.23
0.40
NA
NA
520
522
NA
600
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts . . ,
, .,,
264 National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept, obligations, total
621, Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647. New orders, defense products industries. . .
648, New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S
,.
NA
42.3
NA
42.3'
9.6
31.7
NA
NA
NA
3,4
2,1
NA
601
0.4
KA
-13.0
-39.8
-12,5
-18.3
-19,9
2.3
2.7
NA
NA
4.4
2.4
NA
602
264
616
621
647
648
625
0.5
0*2
1.7
1.3
1.4
0.7
781
750
, 1 «
-0,6
86.4
17.5
48.6
23.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-7.0
40.3
17.2
37.5
45.2
17.5
39.7
NA
-38.8
5,9
128.2
113.3
128,7
113.4
129.3
113.6
0,4
0.1
1
JvA
NA
-10.8
-1.7
04. Price Movements
781 Consumer prices all items ©
1957-59-100 ....
do
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities © ....
116.3
106.1
121.2
108.7
124.8
111.2
126.9
112.6
128.7
113.4
85,3
84.5
84.5
84.5
84.1
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
8i4. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal in conic
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. .
8!j6. Real average hourly earnings, production
8!>9. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
81>7, Vacancy rate in total rental housing2® . .
PP front
Ratio
1.58
1957-59-100....
Ratio
.
1.54
1.54
NA
3.48
do
1.54
3,31
3,20
3.22
NA
123.3
118.4
118.7
121.3
120.6
0.074
0*065
0.053
0.053
0.121
129.9
0.133'
134.2
0.139
135.0
0.137
134.6
0.116
NA
1957-59 dollars-
2,43
2.48
2.50
2,48
2.51
do
78.08
6.2
78,53'
5.4
78,29
5.0
78.24
5.1
78.30
NA
1.55
1.54
NA
-0.6
-1.6
3.20
3:. 15
NA
120.2
120.6'
120.9
0,124
0.120
0.104
0.3
NA
0.0
NA
0.6
0.2
2.2
2.50
78,03
2;. 52.
78,34
-3.2
-13.3
2.50
0,8
-O.IJ
78,53
0.4
o.;i
-0.4
850
NA
851
NA
852
-0*6
853
20*8
854
-1.4
-0.3
-15,3
NA
855
858
-0.8
1,2
856
-0.1
0.1
NA
859
857
0.0
0.064
do
1957-59-100.-..
0.0
0.1
NOTE; Series ari seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal «ovenie nt. * Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA ~ not available,
a ™ anticipated,
EOF - end of period.
^•In many cages, data shewn here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the ta"bles in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published "by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are averages er totals of the data ae shown in part II.
^Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general "business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
*End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
200. GNP in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 1958=100)
II
l)
j
215. Pef capita GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
0 (arm. rate, thous. dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
ltd)
OCTOBER 1969
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
A2
(Nov.) (1st)
P
I
(Jitiy)
P
(July) (Apr.)
I
(May) (Fe&.)
220. National ncome, current doters Q (am. rate, M. dot)
224. Disposable personal Income, current
dollars, Q (ark rate, bit do),)
225. Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
Q (aim. ratejbil doL)
. Per capita disposable personal income, current doXars,
Q (anti rate, M dot.)
i
Per capita disposable phonal Income, 1958 dottars,
rate, thous
m$ 49
SO
91
52
S3
54
5S
56
S7
Current data for those series arc shown on page 65,
10
OCTOBER 1969
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL
AND
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(iulf)
P
(Nov.) (flct)
P
f
(Aug.)
I
Annual rate, billion dollars
Personal consumption expenditures4
. ,*-
_
-
|! -
_-.__ _
230. Total, current dollars, 0
231. Total, 1958 dollars, Q
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles
current dollars, Q
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
• 4 i — — ' " J - - . - - - J » - — „ -— --...-tA—-,
„- „
^w
236. Nondurable goods, total,current dollars, Q
total, current dollars, Q
QL uJuLAJL
49
' ju,
5©
Jl L
51
J> J
§a
a
jJLlJb
53
§4
«
55
'i
i ' i
5S
§7
58
§9
60
61
62
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
BCII
OCTOBER 1969
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(Oet)
I
(Arty)
P
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
F
T
16ft.
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Gross private domestic investment240. Total, Q
241. Nonrestdentiaf fixed investment, total, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
245. tfianae m business inventories, Q
-HIM
• n":
w®n ^D s© sa eg ss
Current doto for those series ore shown on page 66.
12
OCTOBER 1969
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
< 252. Exports of goods and services, Q
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
BCII
OCTOBER
1969
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
Mr)
P
I
(Au&)
T
(July) (Apr.}
P T
(May) (Fob.)
P I
Annualrate JiilttorLdollars (current) I
220-
fiovemment purctmse^ of tuul& and
260. Federal, State, and local governments, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
264. National defense, Q
266. State and local governments, Q
49
§0
SI
S3
53
54
§5
56
57
58
59
6©
61
62
63
S4
65
Current data for those series arc shown on page 67.
14
OCTOBER
1969
BCD
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(My)
P
(July) (Apr.)
F T
(Au£.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
IP
T
270. Final safes; durable goods, 0
27U;hange injiusmess inventories, flwable^
274. Final sales, nondurable goods, Q
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
if
1948 49
SO
51
92
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
69 1970
Current data for these series are shewn on page 67.
BCII OCTOBER
1969
15
Section A
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(Ma?) (FeSi.)
IP
IT
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
280. Compensation of employees, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory vatuation adjustment, Q
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67 and 66.
16
OCTOBER 1969
BCII
Section A
_ .AnnyaLrate^bilJionJollarsJcjirfentl
290. Gross saving (private and government ,Q
292. Personal saying, Q
'i
!i
294. UfKfetributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
298, Government surplus or (feticiUI
1948 49
50
51
§2
53
54
5S
56
57
58
59
60
61
1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
BCII OCTOBER
1969
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P I
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
(Inly) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
wage workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
4, NG^icimural placements, al industries
2. Accession rat*i isanufacturing (per 100 employees)
Awage weekly tottfol cbtok State umsmptoymffrt insurance (ttousamfe-iriverted scale
..-I
.
' •:
i,
|
i
'
!;
| lyff rate, manufacturirf -ja*t 100 emptoyees^fted scate}
2<
3^
1948 49
50
SI
Sa
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
SO
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 19/0
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
18
OCTOBER 1969
ltd*
Section B
Chart
Bl
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(luly) (Apr.)
P
(Mas?) (Feb.)
T
P
I
49. Nonagricurtural job openings unfilled (thousands
48. Help-wanted advertising {index: 1957-59=100)
Man-hours in nonagficultural establishments [aim. rate, bil. man-hours)
*41. Employees on nonagricuttiiral payrolls (millions)
41 Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)
1948 49
50
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
BCD OCTOBER
1969
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Section B
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(July)
P
(July} (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
67-
2-
45. Average weekly nsured unemployment rate (percent-inverted sca(e)
345-
e<
, married males [percent-inverted scale)
2456^
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
*44. Unemployment rate, parsons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-mverted scale)
JK
8
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1070
Cut-cont data for those series aro shown on page 70.
20
OCTOBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Fab.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Comprehensive Production
*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bit. dot.)
*47. industrial production (index: 1957-59-100)
*52. Personal tome (ann. rate, bil.
Li;
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
OCTOBER
1969
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE==Con.
B2
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Del)
f
T
(Inly)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*56, Manufacturing and trade sales (bL do I.)
57, Final sates (series 200 mjnusjeriM2|l5J_, Q JMIK rate, bil
*54. Sales of retail stores (bil, dol.j
!.;i /..A J JLUJL A ,• ,;..;
1948 49
50
si
sa
NOTI; For this oconomtc process (I.e.* Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for those series are shown on page 71.
22
OCTOBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Nev.) (Oct.)
I
(May) (Feb.)
(iulyl (Apr.)
P I
(Ayg.)
T
T
*12. Net business formation [index: 1957-59=100)
ss incorporations thousands
*6. New orders, durable goods
8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1957-59-100;
MOD moving avg.-5-termj'
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment [bi!
Jl '
1948 49
1
1
' ,
50
,
51
'-.UUJL
32
53
54
'
'
55
JJ'Jl
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 197©
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
ItCII OCTOBER
1969
23
§ Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart
B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(M0v.) fit)
f
T
(Pflop) ffefo.)
f ?
(Wjf)
p
New nvestment Commitments - Con
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.l
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries (bit dol.l
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. ft.
of floor area; MCD"moving avg.-6-termr
1. Private nonfarm housfci| starts (am. rate, miions; MCD moving avg.-5-term]
*29. New tKJ«ding permits, private housing units (index: 1957-59=100)
50
60
61
62
S3
$4
§3
66
6?
6i
69
'Thli It a copyrighted isrlot used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodo* Division.
Current data for those series arc shown on pages 72 and 73.
24
OCTOBER 1969
BCII
Section B
Chart
B3
(DYCLIOIL
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
») (
I?
T
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bii. dol.)
97. Backlog of, capital appropriations; manufacturing, Q [bil. dol.)
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. doi,}
. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bil, dol.]
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
Kf.JP OCTOBER
1969
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
{Ma« (Fefe.)
P
T
245. Change in business Inventories, all industries, Q (ann. rate, nil
*31. Cnange in book vak«, manufacturing and trade inventories
moving avg?-5-termj
37, Pwchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
2& Change in book *&#manufacturers' inventories of materials am) supplies
finn. rate, bil. dof,; ttGD moving avg.^term)
materials, percent of companies
60 days or longer |
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
SI
62
63
64
65
6<>
67
68
69 U70
Current data for those series are shown on page 74.
26
OCTOBER 1969
KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Del)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
T
(May) (Fib.)
P
T
100-,
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
i!
75-
«K
™
5025J
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
. do!.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
+2-1
Lagging Indicators
*71. Book value, manufacture and
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.|
\\
1948
49
50
51
i2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process U.S., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
BCII OCTOBER
1969
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B*T] PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (let)
P
I
(Jyly) (Apr.)
(my] (Feb.)
Sensitive Commodity Prices
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks [index: 1941-43=101
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (am. rate, bit. dol,|
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating
cwporate, all industries^Q|perc(
15, Profits (aner taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing, 0 (cents]
*I7. Ratio, pric^'fo unit labor cost, manufacturing [index: 1957-59=100)
Current data for those series ore shown on page 75.
28
OCTOBER
1969
BCI»
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS— Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
p
(N®v.) (Oct.)
P
I
(Aug.)
f
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Hay) (Feb.)
F
T
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100)
1
120 T,
115 •=
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1957-59=100)
Lagging Indicators
Labor cos^Jcur, dol.) per unjt of real corporate fro^jroouct,Jydollars]
*62. tabor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100]
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
BCII
OCTOBER
1969
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) {Apr.}
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
Flows of Money and Credit
96. Change in money supply and time deposits (ann. rate, percent;
85. Change m money supply lann. rale, percent; MCD moving avgrS-term)
C4»
&
+3©i
33, Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, oil. dot.)
+30-
410-
*113. Chafii« it consumer fc$tati$«t debt (arm. rate, bil dol.)
in business teans {ami. rate, bil. doL;
II0D moving avg.-6*t»fm)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
63
69 1970
Current data for those series ore shown on page 76.
30
OCTOBER
1969
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
Q iann. rate, bil. dol.)
110. Total private
I labilities of business failures (mil. dot.-inverted scale;
JiCD moving avg.-6-terml
rate, 30 Ms and over, total installment loans
(percent-in verted scate)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
OCTOBER 1969
31
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT=Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
) (flpr.)
T
93. Free reserves (bit. dol.-inverted scale)
114. Treasury Wl rate [percent)
116; Corporate bond yields (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields (percent]
117. Municipal bond yields {percent)
Current data for those series are shown on page 77.
32
OCTOBER
1969
ICCII
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Slotf.) (Oc£.)
IP
IF
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. do).]
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks [bil. dol.)
*67, Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent]
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
§6
57
58
59
60
@9
1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
ltd*
OCTOBER 1969
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(July}
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
—_.
(July) {Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
[index: 1963-10<f|
160100-
Z±M
130„_
810. Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
(series 1 t 5, 6,10,12,16,17t 19, 23, 29, 31,113)
1948 49
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
120-
X
z_
63
64
1101CO-
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for those series are shown on page 76. Numbers entered on tho chart Indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + } In months from reference turning dates.
1 Rovorso trend adjusted Index of 12 loaders contains tho samo trend as tho Index of 5 coincident Indicators.
34
OCTOBER 1969
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
813. Marginal employment adjustments [series t, 2, 3, 5)
Capital investment commitments (series 6,10,12,29)
815. Inventory investment m$ purchasing (series 23, 25, 31, 37}
817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33, 85,112, H3j
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
07
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
BCII OCTOBER
1969
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Selected Indicators by Timing
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May} (Fab.)
T
P
T
42 •
*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
41-
4>G<
38 <
H>0-
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
*12. Net business formation (index: 1957-59=100)
durable goods industries (bit. dol.)
*10 Contracts and o|lef$, plant and eqwprbt (bil. doi,]
. /\r
new owning permits, pnvate nousffif units [tnoex
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, and 73,
36
OCTOBER 1969
CYCUCAl INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
B8
Chart
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
f
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
IP I
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
~~1—MI. rate, bi). dot; WCO moving avg.-5-term) ——
+20-
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59-100]
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
*16. Corporate profits after taxts, ,Q
Ratio, price to umt labor cost, mamrfacturing [index: 1957-59-100)
*113. Change in consww installment debt jann. rate, bil. dot.]
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 75, and 76.
ItCII
OCTOBER 1969
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Ayg,}
T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*200. GMP n current dollars, Q [ana rate, toil do).]
*205. 6Nf in 1958 dollars,
Q (ami. rate, bit dol.)
*47. IndusttiaJ productiofl (index: 1957-59-100)
*52, Personal income (am. rate, k dot)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
safes (bil. dol.)
Employ^ «n nonagricurturaf p*yrofc
tnempfaymem
Ji ,)' -'( JL-JliyiJL ' .<..:'. a '• j > -, , ., . ,, ;, ,
1948 49
50
51
52
iJL'jiiJLJi,
53
54
•! •', .:
55
Jt
56
, i
-JLJI JL .
57
58
•
fl^total
[peroent-lnvBfted
' -
59
60
61
62
63
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for thofo sorlos are shown on pages 70 and 71.
38
OCTOBER 1969
ltd)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.} (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Mayj (Feb.)
P
T
(My) (Apr.)
P
T
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
0.51.01.52,0-1
'S
?
I V
i
^^
!
i
'
!
!)
1
^
It
'
..
j!
._
^~ E3
^^s*^
*61. Business expenditures, new (riant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil dol.)
]
\
\
7060-
/
50-
i ;
^f
90 -,
80-
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dot.)
*62. Labor cost per unitijof output,
(index: 1957-59=100)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
Urge commercial banks [bil. ttol.)
*67.Bank rates on short-tefm business loans, Q (percent)
1948
49
50
51
$2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77.
OCTOBER 1969
39
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES
(Map)
(Fefe.)
61. tetoess expenditures for new plant
I equipment, all industries, Q
a) Actual expenditures
(arm. rate, bit. dol.)
(b) Second anticipations as
pe/cent of actual (percent)
.1
l i f t . ? T..TI. ? « r ?
i
I!
—4
_ ji
*.
__
lui
A
1
^
(c) First anticipations as
PatentJrf jctuaj [percent}
LJTT I
\
\
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
40
OCTOBER
1969
110
Section C
AMTIOPATSONS AMD INTENTONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
410. Manufacturers' sates, total value, Q (bit, dol.)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered tow, Q (percent)
._
j,
!
*.
50 =
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive, Q (percent)
'
i'
"1957 ""sa" * S9
f 'Y
f!
40 =
'' '•
60 "^ 6i
62
€3
64
65
66
67
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
OCTOBER
1969
41
Section C
Chart
Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES
-Con.
(C3Q57)
Actual
Anticipated <
), Current itconte of househoWs compared to income a year ago, Q
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)
(bj Percent of households reporting higher family income (percentl
(c) Percent of households reporting tower family income (percent)
42! Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
.
!j
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
s
i!
s
, (b) Increase less decrease (peccant)
(c] Mean prohabity of decrease in family income (percent)
. Number of new cars pudiased by households, Q
(ann. rate, mil cars)
.1
[a] Actual (quarterly)
|b) Actual. 2-quarter moving avg.
|c) Anticipations
(d) Antic^tkxis as percent of sctijaf Cl5t3 (i^cem]
ill
435. Index (rf t#tt$*mw seiitimwit, ^ {tst Q1568 ^ItKn; ~
Current data for those series are shown on page 79.
42
OCTOBER 1969
BCII
Section C
p
If
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
[plotted at terminal quarter)
manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
1)444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (44 span)1
*•-»
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
1
This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without wrinen permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
OCTOBER
1969
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Mr)
C2J
(*pr.j
T
(plotted at temiktaJ puM
Actual
Anticipated*
«
Dffl, Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span]^
D46& jfoing prices, mamjfactiifing and trade [4-Q span)1
Seine prices, manufacturing (4-Q span!1
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Selling prices, retail trade [4-Q span]1
61
62
63
64
69
66
67
68
60
7©
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
1
This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Broditreet, Inc.
44
OCTOBER 1969
ItCIt
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(My)
P,
(Apr.)
(May)
P
I
(FA)
T
litfusion indexes: percent risiig
plotted at terminal quarter)
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
D4SO. Freight carloadings (4-Q span)
+0.9n
480. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span)
(millions of cars]
1957
58
59
SO
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
JO
Ii71
Current data for these series are shown on page 61.
IM.JP OCTOBER
1969
45
FOREIGN TRADE
500. Mwetjaiiise trade balance (Ml. dot; MCD moving avg.HHemij
501 Exports, except military aid M. doL MCD moving avf.-&-tefm)
Q
506. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
(bil. dot.; MCD moving ayg.- 6-term)
3.y-
506. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
(tafcx; 1957-59=100; MCD movteg avgM-tefm)
3=1 H
512, General imports (M, ^ MOD moving avg.^-tafffi|
Current data for these serfos are shown on page 82.
46
OCTOBER
1969
Section D
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
U.S. Balance of Payments, Q
520. Liquidity balance basis
[Change taJJ.S. official reserve assets and change
522. Official settlements basis
^
(Change in U.S. official reserve assets, and change
In fiqmOabilftieVplus^ertaih nonlfoid Miffies
to foreign monetary official agencies!
Annual rate, billion dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow)
HE! Excess of payments (outflow)
523. Net capital movements, liquidity balance basis1
(outflow H left scale)
520. Liquidity balance
527. Net capital movements,
official settlements basis1
(outltowT-f left scale)
+H2
522. Official settlements balance
250. Balance on goods and services
(surplus |+) right scale)
60
61
Currant data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to I960 except for series 520.
1
1ncludes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
OCTOBER
1969
47
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
c
41N
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.
Billon dollars
530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstanding at end of period
532. Liquid and certain nonlkpM liabilities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
—-s»--
16
J
40
S©
SI
32
S3
§4
55
56
W
5S
59
60
61
62
63
64
SS
66
12 J
f*9
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. End of year figures are used prior to 196"
48
OCTOBER 1969
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Annual rate, billion dollars
Exqess of receipts
C3 Excess of payments
Goods and services252. Exports
250. Balance on goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted536. Exports
Investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
OCTOBER
1969
49
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Annual rate, biton doflan;
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Investment income—
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments
Travel545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S
Military sales and expenditures-
547. U.S. military
<H
546. Military sales to foreigners
Transportation and other services548. Receipts
<$©
B©
il
l
Current data for these series are shown on page 64. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
50
OCTOBER 1969
Section D
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital movements plus Government
nonmilitary unilateral transfers
Annual rate, billion dollars I
Excess of receipts (inftow]
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
561. U.S. investments abroad
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
Securities investments565. U.S. purchases of foreign
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
ICO OCTOBER
1969
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Char^DS J FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(lull) (Apt)
f
I
(May) (Feb.)
PT
600. Federal surplus or deficit national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
601, federal receipts, national income and product accounts, 0 (ann. rate, bH. dol.)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
52
OCTOBER 1969
Section D
KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(Nev.) (Oct)
P
T
(Jyly)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(May) (Feb.)
P I
7Q,
616. Defense Department obligations, total (bitdof; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations,
(bit. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
647. New orders, defense products industries
(oil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
648, New orders,
defense ^,
products
(bil. dol.)
625, Military contract awards in U.S.
~lbil. dol.; MCO moving avg.-6-term)
Current aota for these series are shown on page 85.
OCTOBER
1969
53
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
) (Apr.)
?
Current data for those socles are shown on page 86.
54
OCTOBER 1969
!*€!»
Section D
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
Wholesale pricesL
i
750. All commodities
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
OCTOBER
1969
55
ANALYTICAL
chart
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(KStf.) (EsfL)
Gross Natwnal Product in 1958 dollars, Q
(inn. rate, bit cWJ
206. Potential GNP1
Actual GNP
207. Gap
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
1
Trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quartar 1965, and 4 percwrt thereafter.
56
OCTOBER 1969
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(flav.) (Qgt)
P
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent]
-
„
„
w
H
p
«
^ _
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
;| 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
(index: 1957-59=100)
"
I©
ia
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
ltd*
OCTOBER
1969
57
Section E
Chart
E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
(flag.)
7
W) (JW
I? T
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
855. Ratio, nonagricuttural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private rtonfarm, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers
manufacturing (1957-59 Mars
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagricurtural
production or nonsupervisocy workers (1957-59 dollars
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
58
OCTOBER 1969
Section E
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Percent rising
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span—-)
06. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
011. Newiy approved capita) appropriations-17 industries, NICB (3-Q span***, 1-Q span**-*)
D34. Pro fits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher prof its - about 1,000 manufacturing corporations [1-Q span)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-77 industries [9-mo. span—f 1-mo. span-—)
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials |9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span-
D5. Initial plains, State unemptoyment insurance-47 areas [percent dedining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 89 and 90.
OCTOBER
1969
59
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E:
E:T] DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oet)
P
I
(Inly)
P
(tog.)
T
(Miy) (Feb.)
f I
041. Employees on nonagricultufaj payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
A - - - -- 1 so
047. Industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—|
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries |6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
054. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—
Current data for those series are shown on page 91.
60
OCTOBER 1969
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(July)
P
(flay)
(Apr.)
IT
(Feb.)
Percent change, annual rate200. (c) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span)
-4 =
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
+12*
+8+4 =
1-mo, span (b)
3-mo. span (c)
—
48. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp, 113 and 114
!!€!»
OCTOBER
1969
61
DM
Fr.
Section
Lit.
Chart Fl
F
CONSUMER PRICES
teiIT
Consumer prices781. United States
Current data for these series are shown on page 98,
62
OCTOBER 1969
KCII
Section F
Chart
F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production -
we-
47. United States
1(80
c
•f?
D
Current data for these series are shown on page 99.
ltd)
OCTOBER 1969
63
Section F
[ Chart
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F3
F3~| STOCK PRICES
[index: 1957-59 = 10fl]
Stock prices-,
„ 19. .United Stales
Current data for* those series are shown on page 100.
64
OCTOBER 1969
BCD
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate,
rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1966
729.5
743.3
755.9
770.7
+19.5
+13.8
+12.6
+14.8
+10.8
+7.6
+6.8
+8.0
649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1
+12.5
+5.9
+5.2
+7.9
+8.0
+3.6
+3.2
+4.8
112,4
113.5
114.5
115.4
+0.9
+1.1
+1.0
+0.9
+3.2
+4.0
+3.6
+3.2
774.2
7^3.5
800.4
816.1
+3.5
+9.3
+16.9
+15.7
+2.0
+4.8
+8.8
+8.0
666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5
-1.6
+4.0
+7.5
+5.5
-0.8
+2.4
+4.4
+3.2
116.2
116.9
118.1
119.4
+0.8
+0.7
+1.2
+1.3
+2.8
+2.4
+4.0
+4.4
835.3
858.7
876,4
892.5
+19.2
+23.4
+17-7
+16.1
+9.6
+11.2
+7.2
693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5
+9.8
+12.5
+7.0
+5.7
+5.6
+7.2
+4.0
+3.2
120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2
+1.1
+1.2
+1.2
+1.3
+3.6
+4.0
+4.0
+4.4
908.7
924.8
P942.3
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+16.2
+16.1
P+17.5
+7.2
+7.2
P+7.6
723.1
726.7
P730.4
+4.6
+3.6
P+3.7
+2.4
'+2.0
p+2.0
125.7
127.3
p!29.0
+1.5
+1.6
P+1.7
+4.8
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+8.4
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRO DUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita
GNP, constant
GNP, current
(1958) dollars
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
+5.2
P+5.2
(Ann, rate,
dollars)
220. National
income in cur»
rent dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol,)
1966
3,720
3,780
3,833
3,895
3,310
3,331
3,347
3,377
603.2
615.0
626.9
637.3
570.3
580.7
592.9
605.0
499.9
506.0
515.9
525.6
453.5
454.7
461.2
466.1
2,549
2,574
2,616
2,656
2,313
2,313
2,339
2,356
3,903
3,940
4,014
4,080
3,360
3,372
3,400
3,418
639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0
615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9
534.4
541.6
550.3
559.*
471.6
476.0
479.4
483.7
2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799
2,378
2,394
2,404
2,419
4,168
4,274
4,350
4,418
3,459
3,513
3,538
3,557
688.8
707.4
724.1
737.3
664.3
680.1
696.1
711.2
575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3
492.1
497.4
498.9
502.1
2,869
2,924
2,946
2,991
2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485
4,488
4,556
p4,630
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
3,571
3,580
P3,589
751.3
765.7
(NA)
724.4
740.5
P756.2
610.2
502.6
. 506.2
P514-.3
3,014
3,065
P3,139
242
,8
244
,9
p2,527
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
620
2.
p638.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ltd* OCTOBER
1969
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230, Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234. Automobiles
in current dollars
total except autos,
total in current
in current dollars
dollars
(Ann* rate,
bil, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
457.8
461.9
471.2
474.5
415.3
415.1
421.3
420.7
71.2
68.5
71.3
71.9
44.4
44.5
46.2
46.5
26.8
24.0
25.1
25.4
202,6
206.4
209.6
209,1
183.9
186.9
190.2
193.5
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
480.9
489. a
495.7
502.6
424-4
430.5
431.9
434.3
70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2
46.9
47.6
47.9
50.0
23.1
25.9
25.4
25.2
215,, a
213,2
2U,4
,216.8
197.7
201.8
206.6
210.6
520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7
445.6
449.0
458.2
457.6
79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3
51.1
52.6
54.1
54.9
28.4
29.2
31.7
31.4
226.1
228.5
233.3
234.3
215.1
220.0
225.8
230.1
562.0
572.8
P581.6
462.9
466.2
(NA)
88.4
90.6
P90.3
57.5
59.2
(NA)
30.9
31-4
(NA)
238.6
243.1
246.4
F
235.0
240.1
p244.9
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
245, Change in
business inventories
(Ann, rate,
bi!. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
117.5
122.4
119.6
126.2
78.8
80.3
83.0
84.2
28.6
28.2
29.0
28.2
50.2
52.1
54.0
56.0
27.4
26.0
2^.7
22.1
+11.3
+16.2
+11.9
+19.9
113.6
109.4
117-7
123.3
83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.8
27.8
54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2
21.4
23.1
26.5
23.8
+9.0
+3.4
+7.8
+9.5
119.4
126.6
125-2
133.9
89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5
29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1
59.4
58.1
59.1
61.4
23.6
30.3
29.9
31.9
+1.6
+9-9
+7.2
+10.5
135.2
137.4
pHO.9
95.3
97.8
plOO.5
32.3
32,1
P34.0
63.0
65.7
P66.5
33.3
32.7
P31.1
+6.6
+6.9
1*9.4
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The Y indicates revised; >" preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
66
OCTOBER 1969
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
UJ FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
260. Total
262. Federal
264. National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rsate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.).
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
.Second quarter.
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
+6.2
+5.6
+4.4
+4.9
42.2
42.7
43.7
44.8
36.0
37.1
39.3
39.9
148.0
153.4
160.7
165.2
72.8
75.6
80.5
82.1
55.3
58.5
63.3
65.6
75.2
77.7
80.1
83.0
+5.4
+5.8
+5.6
+3.8
45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7
40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8
174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4
87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5
69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6
86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9
+1.9
+3.4
+3.6
+1.2
47.7
50.7
53.4
50.6
45.9
47.3
49.7
49.4
193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7
96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9
76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3
97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8
+1.5
+1.6
pr2.0
47.6
57.1
P57.5
46.1
55.5
P55.5
210.0
212.9
p217.8
101.6
100.6
P103.3
79.0
78.5
p80.6
108.5
112.3
plU. 5
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter.
Second quarter.....
Third Quarter* ...
Fourth Quarter *
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter. .
Fourth quarter
Q FINAL SALES A N D INVENTORIES IN C U R R E N T DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)
0
274. Final sales 275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
282. Proprietors'
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
142.2
142.6
148.1
151-8
+8.2
+10.6
+10.2
+13.2
217.6
220.9
225.3
225.4
+3.1
+5.6
+1.7
+6.7
420.1
430.9
441.4
449.7
62.1
61.2
61.1
60.8
19.6
19.8
20.1
20.3
151.9
158.3
157.7
160.0
+4.2
+1.5
+4.4
+5.6
230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9
+4.7
+1.8
+3.4
+3.9
456.2
461.1
470.7
481.7
60.8
61.7
62.6
62.3
20.6
20.8
20.9
21.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
166.4
168.9
173.7
176.6
+1.9
+6.8
+5.1
+7.4
246.5
250.4
256.1
256.4
-0.3
+3.1
+2.1
+3.1
495.1
507.0
519.8
532.3
63.2
63.6
64.1
64.1
21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
181.6
185.5
(NA)
+4.8
+4.9
(NA)
259.7
264.1
(NA^
+1.8
+2.1
(NA)
546.0
558.2
P571.7
64.6
66.5
p67.3
21.5
21.6
P21.7
1967
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p"t preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItCII
OCTOBER 1969
67
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
0
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Q SAVINGJN CURRENT DOLLARS
1966
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
1969
First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed 296. Capital con*
sumption
corporate profits
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
(Ann. ;ate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. .rate,
bil. dol.),
81.5
82.1
82.5
83.7
19.9
21.0
21.8
22.8
121.0
126.3
123.5
128.8
29.6
31.2
31.6
37.7
26,2
26,8
26 ,,9
29,6
62.5
63.5
64.4
65.3
+2.7
+4.7
+0.6
-3.8
78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1
23.5
24.3
25.1
25.9
117.5
113.6
119.9
125.6
40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1
24.8
24.1
24.6
25.5
66.8
67.9
69.2
70.4
-U.I
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4
82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3
26.7
27.5
28.4
29.3
120.5
128.8
129.1
135.4
39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0
20.4
24.1
25.6
23.6
71.7
73.0
73-7
74.6
-11.5
-10.8
-3.5
-0.9
89.5
89,2
(NA)
29.8
30.3
P30.9
138.5
142,7
32.5
33.3
P41.1
22.3
21.3
(NAl
75.9
77.2
P7&.6
+7.8
+10.9
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except inose series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p* preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
68
OCTOBER 1069
ltd*
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Hours)
(Thous,)
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1
*5. Average weekly
initial claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs 2
(Per 100 employees)
*1, Average work* 4. Nonagricultural
week of production placements, all
workers, manufac- industries1
turing1
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
49. Nonagricultural
job openings unfit led1
{Per 100 employees)
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59=100)
Revised?
1967
January
February
March
41.0
40.3
40.5
512
500
492
4.6
4.3
4.1
196
231
256
1.3
1.5
1.7
395
379
366
191
189
184
April
May
June
40.5
40.4
40.4
485
481
483
4.2
4-6
4.5
259
236
231
1.5
1.4
1.4
353
351
352
185
184
184
July
August
September . . .
40 5
An 7
478
4 4
231
11
8
/, ;,
9-10
OCJ
i,() &
14
i ^
-LO
350
J.O-I
JPA-
1 £7
J.or
LA *
1.
0-17
T
^
^Al
1ft7
-LOf
October
November . . .
December
40.7
476
4.5
220
1.3
358
-1 07
/L0 7
A.O 7
L.73
L 5
L L
12
12
3 5L
3/i.S
1 A7
A.7*>
20Q
204
40.2
206
196
1.3
194
359
363
371
191
13
13
1
0
188
1968
January
February
March
40 7
40.8
478
471
481
4 5
4 1
April
May
June
40.1
40.9
40.9
487
475
486
4.7
4.6
4.5
193
195
194
11
.
1.3
11
.
380
394
386
197
197
197
July
August
40.9
40.7
41.0
520
477
478
4.7
4.6
4.7
189
199
194
1.2
1.2
1.2
375
367
376
204
208
218
40.9
40.8
40.8
466
454
443
4.8
4.6
4.7
188
190
190
1.2
11
.
11
.
374
372
373
223
January
February
March
40.6
40.1
40.9
448
459
431
4.9
4.6
4.6
179
186
184
11
.
11
.
. 1.2
372
375
365
224
230
231
April
May
June
40.8
40.7
40.7
452
427
460
4.9
4.8
B> 176
[H> 1.0
11
.
377
387
383
233
232
228
July
August
September
Zi.0 7
LL.6
40.6
427
r\L~\L
September
October
November
December
4.5
191
194
222
225
1969
p40 7
5..0
180
201
l'
.l
L ft
nA. 5
1Q7
In
(NA)
196
nl -L
P-L. 1
201
(N&}
\ViAJ
OCt»
Jjpo
Q;,C
J>*O
P337
227
fjf\t
££l±
in\ W^QA
[R)p23o
October
November
December
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Current high values are
indicated'by |H>' for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45 f and 93), current low values are indicated by
^
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
r
*)
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and 1
"NA", not available.
.
.
^^ _ .
Series that reached their high values priorto 1 6 are as follows; Series 1, high value ( 1 6 reached in Feb. 1 6 : Series
97
4.)
96
4, high value ( 8 ) in May 1962; Series 2, high value (5.2), in Mar. 1 6 ; Series 49, high value ( 3 ) in July 1 6 . ^a+fl
56,
96
47,
96
3
Issue,"
exclude Puerto Rico which is Included in figures published "by source agency, See "New Features and Changes for This I
page iii.
BCII
OCTOBER 1969
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
|
....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS--Con.
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
and
month
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
Laig'Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
{Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs 1
(Percent)
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March
131.38
130.64
130.73
65,342
65,379
65,459
70, 137
70,188
69,935
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
i.a
1.7
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
April
65,469
65,563
65,747
70,144
69,804
70,407
3.8
3.9
3.9
a. 6
2.7
June
130.36
130.74
1 11
3.0
a. 6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
July
August
September
1 11
3.6
131.77
131.98
65,799
66 , 016
66,003
70,649
70,721
70,929
3-9
3.8
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
October
November
December
131.75
133-02
132.79
66,083
66,600
66,734
71,023
71,135
71,293
4.2
2.3
3.8
3-7
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
January
February . . ,
March
131.60
133 29
133-53
66,720
67 165
67,286
71,124
71 566
71, 786
3.6
3.7
3.7
2.3
2 3
2.2
1.7
] 7
1.7
0 6
0 6
0.6
April
June
133.54
134.21
134.75
67,466
67,550
67,816
71, 737
72,C)27
72,156
3.5
3.0
3.7
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
135.24
135-57
135.75
67, 945
68,088
68,195
72,195
72,222
72,349
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
October
November
December
135.89
135.83
136.19
68,427
68,664
68,875
72,477
72,682
72,923
3.6
3.4
3.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
January
February
March
137.07
137.08
138.44
69,199
69,487
69,710
73,477
73,848
74,035
SD 3.3
3.3
1.4
1.4
0,4
0.4
3.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
|H)1.4
(H>0.4
April
May
June
138.42
139.15
139 . 43
69, 789
70,013
70,300
73,941
73,460
73,966
3.5
3.5
3.4
2.0
[H>2.0
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
7/,
o A
2
2
2
May
2.2
0.6
1968
May
1969
July
August
September
Y,TOQ
J,J,
M) v»T 1Q Ql
rl3V.V4
_T QO rtl
p!3y . 84
ILJ\
-i70 07,7
fEj\ rru,4U>
|H/ v»7fi Anc
p?0, 398
-30Q
7 A ^^
f*f,?2J
(H> 74, 669
r
3o
(\
4 .0
0
1
f)
16
i ^
J-O
3
Ft
-• f
o ^
c
Oo
e
O .5
October . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted seiries are indicatec1, by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H)* for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39,,40,43, 44 t 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
g>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The *r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
70
OCTOBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR 5
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross national product
tional product
in current dolin 1958 dollars
lars
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
*52. Personal
income
month
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
(1957-59=100)
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
57. Finalsales
(series 200
minus series
*54. Sales of
retail stores
245)
(Mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1967
774.2
666.5
158.3
156.7
156.6
612.8
614. 9
617.9
162.7
161.4
161.2
88,078
87,323
87,632
765.2
783 5
January
February
March
670 5
156 7
155.6
155.7
619 "3
621.2
626.]
161 2
160 9
161.7
87 656
88 016
89 184
780 2
April
May
June
25,828
25,478
25,758
25 QAD
25 966
26 488
July
August
September
800.4
678.0
156.4
158.3
156.8
630.4
635.2
637.8
163.2
165.0
165.1
88, 508
89,967
90,113
792.6
26,325
26,298
26,899
October ...
November
December .
816 . "L
683.5
157.2
159.8
162.1
639.0
645.6
653.0
165.0
168.4
170.2
89,072
90,770
92,147
806 6
26,129
26 396
26 545
835 . 3
693.3
161.2
162.0
163.0
656.3
664.6
671.9
170.4
173.6
174-3
93,184
93,758
94,463
833.6
27,043
27,449
27,996
858,7
705.8
162.5
164.2
165.8
674.2
680.2
685.9
174.3
177.1
177.9
94,552
96,069
97,423
848.8
27,791
28,158
28,320
July
August
September
876.4
712.8
166.0
164.6
165.1
691.0
696.1
701.1
179.0
179.7
181.8
98,368
97,083
99,135
869.2
28,674
28,760
28,902
October ...
November
December
892 . 5
718.5
166.0
167.5
168.7
706.2
711.5
716.0
183.3
184.6
186.7
99,675
100,142
98,671
882.0
28, 697
28, 806
28,347
908.7
723.1
169.1
170.1
171.4
718.7
723.9
730.7
187.1
187.6
190.7
100,137
101,390
101,510
902.1
28,989
29,289
28,916
924 .8
726.7
171.7
172.5
r!73.7
r735.3
740.0
746.1
192.1
193.1
195.3
102,352
103,232
104,127
917.9
29,442
29,386
29,371
tn\ J>w*o
IH) TtQA?' *H
tn\ nV'-iO L.
E> 174.6
174-3
p!73.8
751.4
r757,5
rn\p759.8
r 103, 717
196.0
r 198.1 [H>pl04,381
^
(NA^
[H)pl98.2
[R)p933.0
r29,090
r29,411
E>p29 697
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. .
September
October
November
December
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated'by E>' for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39r 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; a", anticipated;
and"NA", not available.
ItCII OCTOBER 1969
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS
FCrmat
Fn?e?nr?sUeSsineSS
New
13. Number of new *6. Value of
*12. Index of net
business formation business incorpora- manufacturers'
tions
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(1957-59-100)
(Number)
(Bil.dol.)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
(1957-59-100)
^*M Commitments
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.doL)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
102.2
103.2
103.3
16, 703
23.94
126
15,987
16,244
24.15
5,92
6,13
6.16
5.72
23.54
143
149
5.07
5.02
4.98
April
May
June
103.7
105.0
108.1
16,760
17,627
17,799
24.04
25.30
25.77
138
154
164
6,00
6,03
6,40
5.72
5.08
5.09
5.38
July
August
September
108 4
16 "300
2i. Q9
110.7
110.3
17 674
18,118
25 88
25.18
1AQ
165
5 82
168
6 24
6 57
6,43
October
November
December
110.6
112.7
113.8
18,000
18,403
18,168
25.68
25.85
28.06
171
6,66
168
166
6«42
6*43
5.74
5.37
5.50
January
February
March
113.5
114.7
113.8
17,223
18,014
17, 974
26.84
26.81
28.00
159
156
176
6 ,,50
6,51
6,67
5.80
5.47
5.38
5.38
April
May
June
102.8
112.7
27.37
27.17
26.70
146
172
160
6,20
6,62
,5.74
114.5
18,659
18,796
19,197
5.49
5.45
5.97
119.0
119.1
20, on
19, 530
6.59
5.71
6.03
20 986
187
192
1S3
6,96
7.85
121 2
26.92
27.33
28 38
ip-a a
21 ^Qi
21 155
20 292
30 28
29 32
29 38
200
8 18
121 L.
12*5 3
1A3
179
7 29
7 79
125.2
|® 125.8
123.2
20 578
22,199
21,353
29 68
30.48
29.70
190
205
177
7.84
7.50
23,467
23,230
23, 7H
30.94
30.00
29.17
183
210
180
8.26
8.01
7-83
fu\ yz 770
•poi A7
176
r30 Aft
ru\t>32 28
Iu\2l6
q#
5 O°
*i L.7
5 35
5 31
1968
July..
August
September
October
.. .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May .
june
July
August
September
123.9
123.1
123.6
pl24 6
nl2A y
(NA)
nOQ
1*£
(NA)
173
7,20
5 Q2
7 20
6 55
6 63
6 09
6 24
6 '.65
6 20
6 51
6.41
Eft f •**•«
IE!/ p7.48
7.10
6.43
6.53
7 98
6 35
r6 24
7 7A
r? 60
|H) p8 6l
(MA\
\nA}
luS n7 31
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted seiies are indicated by @ . Current foigh values are
indicated by D; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-HiOl Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
72
OCTOBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS~Con.
Minor Economic
Process
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
Year
and
month
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started
(Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
(1957-59-100)
96. Manufacturers'
.unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing
(Bii.dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(2)
1967
49.09
57.84
56.14
1,079
1,132
1,067
1,099
1,254
June
53.27
54.72
62.30
July
August
September
October.
November
December
83.1
77.36
78.9
81.9
77.02
76.04
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
75.88
76.52
77.31
56 72
61.66
60.45
1,356
1,381
1,415
96.4
99.4
102.3
77.82
77.94
77.94
58.42
63.17
64.08
1,478
1,567
1,235
106.9
102.2
116.7
78.82
79.13
80.58
January
February
March
6A. *n
61.39
AA AT
1 L1Q
1,499
97 2
120.0
80 49
80.59
121 4
ftl
April
May
June
L/7 DQ
1 c.Z.2
113 7
66 96
66 35
1 ^ZL1!
106 9
1 ^A.8
107 o
82 24
81 90
80 97
July
August
September
n
1 507
1 496
1 570
107 7
107 8
116.4
79 68
80 18
80.57
115 2
1 91
1 .
122 3
81 89
82.43
84 07
January
February
March
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
.. .
April
May
61.65
76 75
76.90
75.53
61.50
74.67
74.92
76.28
60.90
76 64
77.90
78.58
62.70
76.79
77.92
79.94
64.75
80 77
80.79
ftO 59
20.42
20.25
20.42
20.41
1968
fa
66 15
61 59
October
November
December
79 63
69 70
71 ^7
1
/.7Q
1 541
1 705
1 492
75
19 01
62 60
81 59
80 32
80 86
18 93
63 20
80 09
82 40
85.08
65.90
86 15
$8.21
85.46
68.90
90.00
91.42
90.31
H> 70.20
88.84
89.84
91.86
a?2.25
r91.18
g>p93.76
(NA)
19-44
20.02
1969
E> 94-41
69.98
63.50
(H> 1,845
1,664
1,567
117.2
123.4
118.7
84.43
84.99
85.16
April
May
June
65 82
85.60
79.12
1,548
1,495
1,446
® 125.5
86.46
H>86.88
85.91
July
August
September
72 LI
71 96
65.87
rl,349
rl, 369
pi, 498
102.6
r!04.0
P98.7
January
February
March
. ..
October
November
December
110.6
112.0
86.37
r85.98
p86.60
20.48
|H>P21*54
(NA)
a72.10
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated'by H> • for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
lf
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
2
Data for 1st quarter 1968 to date are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
iii, August 1 6 issue.
99
D OCTOBER 1969
' ^
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
|
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in *31. Change in
book value of
business
inventories1
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total1
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies1
(Percent
reporting)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 6(1
days or longer®1
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
25. Change in
until led orders,
performance,
companies re- durable goods
porting slower industries1
deliveries®1
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
Revised*3
3
( )
1967
*71. Manufac- 6!). Manufacturers' inventuring and
trade invento- tories of
ries, book
finished goods,
value
book value
i3a.is
138.66
139.07
139.62
48
45
46
+2.6
+0,4
+0.6
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
+0.65
+0.79
139 .a?
40
42
44
+1.4
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.50
140.27
140.34
141.X8
26.43
r+6.3
r+4.0
r+2.5
+13.1
+14. 6
45
46
54
+0.1
+0.6
+0.3
62
63
64
50
51
48
+0.88
+0.31
+1.45
141.39
142.48
143.69
26.63
26.70
+4.0
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+1.16
1M.03
r+8.5
r+4.1
144.74
26.97
27.09
145. OQ
27.21
r+15.9
+15.9
r+8.5
51
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1.7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+0.48
+9.9
146.40
147.73
14^.44
27.35
27.59
27.64
July
August
September
r+6.4
r+10.2
r+9.9
59
55
68
66
56
46
40
+3.5
+2.0
-0.9
60
46
+0.49
+0.40
H8.97
149.32
150.65
27.79
+7.2
October
November
December
42
+1.9
62
52
+1.32
152.02
+10 5
44
-2.2
60
60
60
56
+0.54
152, 83
28.64
28.92
+1.64
153.76
29.13
62
+0.36 :
+0.56
154.09
155*34
156*40
29.08
29.41
29.61
157.48
158.60
159.26
30.41
160,63
fu\pl6l.;i3
30.66
fu\ 30.96
r+12.0
January
February
March
+9.0
April
May
+3.4
June
+5.7
+5.0
r+6.6
r+3,0
-0.7
July
August
September
October
November
December
+5.6
+7.8
....
... .
+9.5
-0.17
25.43
25.68
25.82
26.22
26.41
26.36
i39.ai
+0.12
+0.01
26.61
26.64
26.81
1968
January
February .
March
+1.6
April
May
June
r+16.4
+9 8
r+ll 2
-0.34
-0.93
-1.29
lA
+0 6
14-3.9
+15.0
r+12.8
43
47
-0,4
-0.4
57
58
49
+4.0
63
61 I
61
+12.9
+13-5
r+7.9
49
52
50
+1.3
+2.8
-1.1
65
64
66
68
69
70
r+l6 4
p+6 0
*51
51
48
59
63
65
66
68
66
28.15
28.44
1969
January
February,.,.
March
+6.6
April
May
June
+6.9
July
August
September
TvhQ L
(NA)
+1 1
-0 %
(NA)
i
!
+0.16
+1.30
+0.42
-0.97
+0.46
r-0.38
p+0.62
W
(NA)
29.98
30.45
W>
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are
indicated by [fi> • for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44 f 45, and 93), cirrent low values are indicated by
@)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The *r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Seriee that reached their high values prior to 1 6 are as follows: Series 245, high value ( 1 . ) reached in 4th quarter 1 6 ;
97
+98
96
Series 31, high value ( 2 . ) in June 1 6 ; Series 37, high value ( 3 , in Nov. 1 6 ; Series 20, high value (+5.7), in Aug. 1 6 ;
+00,
96
6)
94
9 6
Series 26, high value ( 5 , in Oet. 1 6 ; Series 32, high value ( 6 , in Mar. 1 6 ; Series 23, high value ( 1 8 ) in Sept. 1 6 .
7)
96
8)
96
+.2,
9 6
a
See "Mew Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
74
OCTOBER 1 6 K4 Jl
99
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Sensitive Com- Stock Prices
modity Prices
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices© 1
*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks©
(1957-59=100) (1941-43-10)
Profits and Profit Margins
*16. Corpo- 22. Ratio Of
rate profits profits to
after taxes1 income orig*
mating, corporate, all
1
(Ann. rate, indus,
bit. dot.)
(Percent)
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg.
corp.*
(Cents)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
LEADING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ©
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dot.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59=100) (1957-59-100) (1957-59=100) (Dollars)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod.®
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
106 8
105 2
102 5
8JL.45
87.36
89 42
46 l
U o
5 0
102 1
101 9
101 2
105 8
106 0
106 0
106 4
106 4
106 3
0 701
April
May
June
100 1
99 6
99 8
90 96
92 59
91.43
46 4
U
Q
5 0
101 4
100 8
100 3
106 0
106 0
106.0
106 2
106 3
106 6
o 702
July
August
September
98.3
98.1
97.8
93-01
94.49
95.81
47.0
H.7
4.9
100 3
100.2
106.8
106.8
107.1
0.709
99-6
106.0
106.3
106.5
106 5
106.6
107.5
October
November
December
97.7
95.66
92.66
95-30
49.9
12.1
5.1
100.0
100.2
100.9
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
107.3
107.6
0.712
107.1
107.1
106.6
95.04
90.75
89.09
47.9
11.5
5.1
108.1
108.7
108.9
0.719
100.0
107.8
108.3
108.6
108.3
109.0
108.9
100.0
99 5
99 ft
108.8
108.6
108.8
109.1
109.1
109 4
0 718
109.1
109 7
109 6
108.8
108 9
i no o
109.7
109 5
-1 f\Q Q
xuy. 7
o 722
109.9
111 4
119 n
99.1
100.1
1968
January
February
March
99.8
99.5
100.1
April
May
June
98 3
96 1
95 6
97 87
100 S*3
July
August
September. .
94 4
QL &
100 30
98 11
95.67
oA 1
yo.i
10? 76
-ine 1,0
100 7
102 04
101 46
*J 1
117 4
15 6
1.
c n
98 5
98 8
9ft 7
109 7
no o
TOP 9
lio 3
110 2
0 709
110 5
m
7
111 6
112 0
q
111.7
112.2
0.745
112 2
111 5
112.2
4 9
112.4
112 8
113.2
[H)0 755
99 M,
99 6
100 0
100 0
119,1
11 1
112 9
112 8
113,2
% • 71
Qi, 1ft
t
% >i
(Mfl^
^JNAJ
T~\ nn L
r99 1
p99 0
112 4
r)
n A
m
i o/, (&
1 "I C
*n A
P-L.O
110 9
1 14
1.
112.0
110 4
111 6
1O9 ?
99 8
9ft 3
Qrt -1
70.1
99 2
100 2
100.0
April
May
June
3
11 2
5 0
106 3
106 9
October
November
December
50 o
10/i 7
105 5
106 3
11 1
January
February
March
July
August
September
5 0
[u\ T 06 I, ft
1(73 L
11 4
1 (Yl *3J
JJJJ.O4
97 5
ICY) Q
October
November
December
1969
L.9 7
99.8
99.7
104 2
104 4
105 0
H) 52 2
99 30
101 26
51 8
T\
3
(MA y
^WA^
fHjn
(NA)
11?. y
112.2
119 L
"IIP g
E> 113.2
1 -|Q C
JO.JSO
11^ 6
SD113-9
(NA)
rll3 1
rllk.6
[Cr> pl!5 . 1
97. 16
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'by |H>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45 r and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and/'NA", not available.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value ( 3 9 , in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value ( . ) in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value
1.)
58,
(105.2), in July 1966. 3Avera,ge for October 7, 14, and 21. ^Average for October 20, 21, and 22.
BCD
OCTOBER 1969
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
1 1 MONEY AND CREDIT
9
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised3
1967
January
February
March
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
33, Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net change 112. Change in 1 110. Total priin consumer
business loans vate borrowing
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dot.)
1 LL
+11 28
+9 72
+Q 77
+12 42
+10 69
+2 84
4/t £>Q
April
May
June
+6 00
+13 32
+13.56
-3 48
[R> +11 76
+11.04
+12 67
+15 "31
+16 97
+1 08
+2 28
+3 84
+1 63
July
August
September
+13.44
+10 20
+9 12
+10.20
+8 76
+5.40
+17 . 75
+21 6l
+21 20
+3.08
+L 78
+3 76
+16 09
-Q IQ
-2 IS
66 044
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
+7.68
+8.28
+7.32
+5.40
+5.28
+3.36
+19.82
+21.32
+20.33
+3.79
+4.69
+4-31
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
7 A 936
+4.32
+7.80
+7.44
+6.00
+4.56
+5.88
+20 30
+19 27
+19 . 72
+L 79
+8 83
+7.46
4-1 1 A^7
-2 ^Q
April
May
June
+4.56
+7.08
+5.76
+5.88
+11.04
+9.00
+19.07
+21.62
+18 14
+7.69
+8.78
4-8 59
+19 . 57
+2.09
+17 75
4-14 02
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
i T O
) &
i i «3 o/L
i Q
Q£
+10 56
i 1 o rtM
inn -\n
-2 16
-0 96
OO
-1.20
(Percent)
IflA 17
An ftru
1O^ &9
61 864
+10.70
+11 27
+14.10
+7 69
+9 58
+17 10
+8 ^Q
. , 7<r
17
+ f .*4-*4-
+6 12
4-^
1?
+20 90
+23 66
+20 09
i y\
Q£
+19 40
+22 78
i 1 rtr\
_ _ , T / cA
r+JLo.po
i on
_ i f « ) 1 "QO
O
AA
.00
p+2X.>i
(,NA;
CWA ^
.Q 1 g
+10 15
iQ
Cl
4-7.46
,ij 2U
+ /-.'""jn
/•MA \
VWA;
4-2.74
-5.18
rt rtQ
P+-8.89
1 6,5
81 63
69 98
195 45
BO 1A
91.41
7/i 66
1 66
1 7L
1 51
1 5Q
1 err
Qfi 97
85 172
fCjN oq run
85 680
6S 77
*?8 61?
65 38
IHi ^^ 65
^^ ^1
75 0/3
AQ QQ
1 5A
fa} 1 L.7
1 71
1 51
AA i *2
•{•]&
.4=1 A 1 A
__.
72 ^5
108 90
69,144
+5.J?
+9 08
4=7 25
1 79
1 fU h Q
7Q ^>0
8A 5Q
_LC qc
1 1
i on
Q7
68 612
+*> 78
|H> +11.36
+10 01
+9.30
i 17
QO
9^ QA
+3 78
-L 25
+L. 65
I rtO
104 64
+8 09
+20 . 39
+21.68
[fi) +25 . 37
i -i -\
ort
+.UL.28
r+18 24
T 1 * /i
XJ.J ^ /O *?
110 ^9
P^
4,9 co
CO
+7 Q2
+1 20
+4 20
8 1 (*\
•4-Q
+18.88
iO
+Q
-] f\
Zi9
TVC.;><:
rtrt
+3 00
QA
+7 OA.
-O ^<>
-UOp
+2 42
•4-1
+10 28
+11 21
+8.58
i ft
i rt rtrt
+1 20
-1 20
-0 60
(MiLdol.)
Revised5
+& 40
lift 4-1,6 6&
+12 84
....
14, Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of bus- rate, 30 days
ness failures® and over, total
installment loans
nfti nnn
fjL
09 AH
©T O^
VX.V4
rl!2 . 73
(NA.)
(t!ttl:\
62 . 83
73.70
1 /tfi
I/i
.64
. *.
1.70
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted seiies are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by JH>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
fff>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
x
Thls series reashed its high value (+21.11) in July 1966.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.
76
OCTOBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q MONEY AND CREDIT -Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
93. Free^
reserves©
Outstanding Debt
Money Market !nterest Rates
Reserves
Year
LAGGING INDICATORS
114. Treasury
bill rate©
and
116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66, Consumer
bond yields© bond yields® bond yields.® installment
debt
month
(Mil. dot.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large com*
mercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
'"^WffrfilT
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dent ial ®
loans, 35
cities®
•
(Percent)
(Percent)
1967
-16
-4
+236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
76,191
76,309
76,546
60,936
61,138
61,592
6!i3
6.62
6.46
6.35
3.85
3.64
3.48
5-59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4.76
4.86
3.60
3.89
3.96
76,636
76,826
77,146
62,345
62,209
62,580
5^95
June
+175
+269
+297
6.29
6.44
6.51
July
August
September
+272
+298
+268
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6.30
6.33
4.86
4.95
4.99
4.02
3-99
4.12
77,403
77,801
78,114
62,911
62,817
63,246
5^95
6.53
6.60
6.63
October
November
December
+160
+270
+107
4.59
4.76
5.01
6.53
6.87
6.93
5.19
5.44
5.36
4.30
4.34
4.43
78,430
78,821
79,180
63,592
64,053
65,102
5^96
6.65
6.77
6.81
January
February
March
+144
+38
-315
5.08
4.97
5.14
6.57
6.57
6.80
5.18
5.16
5.39
4.29
4.31
4.54
79,579
80,315
80,937
65,363
65,734
66,063
6.36
6.81
6.78
6.83
April
June
-413
-326
-341
5.36
5.62
5.54
6.79
7.00
7.02
5.28
5.40
5.23
4.34
4.54
4.50
81,578
82,310
83,026
67,446
67,306
67,702
6.84
6.94
(NA)
7.52
July
August
September
-226
-190
-132
5.38
5.10
5.20
6.91
6,54
6.69
5.09
5.04
5.09
4.33
4.21
4.38
83,883
84,817
85,532
68,178
68,695
69,225
6*.B9
7.42
7.35
7.28
October
November
December
-167
-245'
-310
5.33
5.49
5.92
6.88
7.00
7.28
5.24
5.36
5.66
4.49
4.60
4.82
86,479
87,313
88, 088
70,264
71,536
72,346
6J61
7.29
7.36
7.50
-480
-596
-701
6.18
6.16
6.08
7.29
7.33
7.76
5.74
5.86
6.05
4.85
4.98
5.26
88,729
89,527
90,173
73,410
74,698
74,674
7^32
(NA)
7.99
8.05
-844
6.15
6.08
6.49
7.54
7.62
8.04
5.84
5.85
6.05
5.19
5.33
5-76
90,933
91,779
92,574
76,659
77,176
77,008
7*. 86
8.06
8.06
8.35
5.75
6.00
E>6.26
93,196
76,687
77,426
E>P77,990
B>8]82
January
February
March
April
..
May
1968
May
....
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
. .
H> -1,102
-1,064
July
August
September
-1,074
r-946
P-849
7.00
7.01
(H>7.13
8.06
8.05
H>8.36
6.07
6.02
E>6.32
®"&
8.36
8.36
(H>S.40
October
November
December
NOTE" Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1-4, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
OCTOBER 1969
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
HJ COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted 1
(series 1,5, 6,
10, 12, 16, 17,
19,23,29,31,
113)
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
830. Six
laggers (series
44,61,62,67,
71,72)
Leading indicator subgroups
813. Marginal
employment adjustments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)2
(1963-100)
(1963=100)
(1963=100)
(1963=100)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1963=100)
815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 2 25,
23,
31,37)
(1963-100)
816. Profitabil- 817, Sensitive
financial flows
ity (series 16,
(series 33, 85,
17, 19)2
112, 113)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
1967
January
February
March
126.3
124.9
125.0
141. 2
140.9
141.5
150.0
149.5
149.7
106.4
103.0
101.8
103.1
103.3
103.4
103.2
101.6
100.7
113.8
113.6
113.8
95.8
97.1
97.9
April
June
125.6
127.0
128.7
141.4
141.3
142.3
149.8
149.6
150.3
102.3
103.8
103.8
104.5
105.5
107.9
99.5
100.2
100.2
114.3
114.4
113.0
95.5
98.4
99.8
July
August. ...... ,
September
129.0
131.5
131.6
143.1
1A4.5
143.7
150.6
150.4
151.4
103.8
105.0
104.9
107.4
109,3
108.9
99.9
100.3
99.5
114.5
114.7
115.0
100.3
9B.7
97.6
October
November
December
132.7
134.4
136. a
143.2
146.8
149.0
152.0
152.9
154.8
104.9
105.7
105-7
109.8
110.1
112.5
100.9
102.0
104.2
U5.6
115.6
116.5
99.7
100.0
99.3
January
February
March
134.6
137.3
137. a
149.9
151.7
152.9
157.2
159.0
159.7
104.6
105.8
105-3
110.4
112.6
113.0
102.0
102.3
102.8
115.4
114.0
114.1
100.5
100.4
100,6
April
June
137.9
139.1
140.1
153.7
154.9
156.3
162.4
163.7
164.4
105.9
106.3
106.8
111.3
1 11
1.
112.2
102.7
101.8
100.9
116.0
116. 5
117.4
102.6
102.8
101.7
July
August
September
141.6
142.0
143.6
157.3
157.8
159.0
164.1
166.7
167.7
107.1
106.2
107.0
113.8
114.9
116.1
100.1
101.6
100.1
115. a
117.4
W104.3
" 101.5
99.6
October
November
December
147.3
147.2
UQ.6
160.2
162.1
163.0
168.6
r!70.7
173.7
107.3
107.1
107.2
118.8
117.6
119-1
r 102.1
117. a
rl01.9
118.7
119.0
rlQ2.1
rl03.2
r!03.4
1A8.6
150.7
150.3
164.3
166.0
167.0
176.4
179.1
181.2
107.7
106.1
107.1
119.0
119.9
117.9
102.0
104.5
r!04.3
118.5
119.2
118.5
rl01,6
rlOl.7
r99.6
r!52.7
152.8
151.7
rl67.6
182.8
184.7
387.3
rl89.8
rl93.3
194 0
108.5
107.6
107.1
|® 119.9
rl05.9
117.6
r!04.,3
rioa.a
rioo.a
106.6
106.3
(NA)
rll7.9
rl!7,5
P119.1
106.6
118.6
119.6
117.7
rll6.6
rl!4.9
plU.9
May
1968
May
102.9
116.7
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June..
July
August
September
rl52.3
r!51.6
^Pl53.6
168.9
170.9
170.7
E> rl72.0
P171-4
mp -
H7.9
105.9
rl05.6
p!0?.l
rlOL.5
r98.2
P97.7
(MA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values, are
indicated by (H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14,39,40,43,44,45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of tho book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; *p", preliminary; *e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators. For historical
data prior to reverse trend adjustment, see series 811 in Appendix C of this issue.
s
Series that reached their high values prior to 1 6 are as follows: Series 813, high value ( 0 . ) reached in March 1966;
97
194
Series 815, high value (UO.l) reached in March 1966; Series 8 6 high value (120.11 reached in February 1966*
1,
78
OCTOBER 1969
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
; AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil.dol.)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
1966=100)
1966
58.00
60.10
61.25
62.80
98.6
99.2
100.6
99.7
97.8
98.0
100.7
101.2
131.2
134.0
135.3
137.5
70.0
72.7
75.5
78.1
1
1
14
19
26
47
45
46
42
100.0
95.7
91.2
88.3
61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70
101.5
100.1
102.6
99.0
102.9
101.2
103.1
135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
64.75
62.60
63.20
65.90
100.1
103.2
102.7
102.0
100.5
102.7
104.5
345.2
149.5
152.7
156.6
83.8
85.6
87.1
88. £
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
42
95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1
68.90
70.20
a72.25
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
104.0
102.6
(NA)
103.3
100.9
(NA)
159.2
161.8
al66.2
al67.2
90.3
92.2
a94.5
a96.8
18
19
43
38
95.1
91.6
86.4
99.9
98.9
(NA)
(NA)
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher
income
in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
2-quarter moving average
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
b. Actual
c. Antici- d. Anticipated
less decrease in income
as percent of
pated
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate, actual
mil, cars)
mil, cars)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
mil, cars)
1967
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2
35.4
32.9
34.2
33.3
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.6
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0
11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
10.1
9.9
11.2
10.2
52.9
53.0
50.8
36.4
35.9
37-3
10.0
10.5
10.8
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
16.5
18.1
18.6
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
7.3
7.5
6.8
6.8
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.8
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0
7.4
7.9
8.7
7.8
7.1
7.7
8.3
8.3
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
7.9
8.4
8.3
(NA)
11.3
12.0
13.0
5-2
6.1
5.6
(NA)
7.4
7.6
7.6
96
92
92
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©". Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
OCTOBER
1969
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing^
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1
D446. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Atfual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
SB
SB
84
82
86
88
88
84
82
82
78
76
84
86
84
82
88
88
85
82
88
90
90
86
65
66
63
62
62
63
63
62
71
12
69
72
82
82
80
81
65
65
64
69
75
74
76
76
71
70
72
74
80
82
82
82
58
58
58
60
60
60
60
78
78
79
80
80
83
82
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
57
60
SB
60
60
60
58
60
81
80
(NA)
82
85
83
80
70
74
(NA)
78
79
77
76
80
84
(NA)
86
88
86
83
59
60
(NA)
60
60
60
59
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter ,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
D462. Manufacturing1
Actual
D464. Wholesale trade:L
0466. Retail trade1
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
74
74
73
74
66
68
69
69
74
74
80
78
66
69
74
70
70
72
78
76
65
68
72
68
78
76
82
78
68
72
76
72
84
63
70
76
75
68
66
65
64
65
66
63
62
72
72
76
78
75
72
70
72
70
70
72
73
74
72
68
70
74
74
80
76
73
69
74
74
80
84
87
76
76
72
78
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
80
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
78
82
76
78
92
81
84
86
87
71
70
(NA)
66
68
66
66
84
84
(NA)
78
80
80
81
82
80
(NA)
75
79
78
80
85
85
(NA)
79
8C
8C
80
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
91
90
(NA)
84
84
84
86
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" t not available.
•"•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bratlstreet, Inc.
80
OCTOBER 1969
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
1 1 DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
8
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
Year
and
quarter
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
480. Change in
freight carloadings©
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
carloadings
c. First
anticipations
b. Second
anticipations
a. Actual
expenditures
0480. Freight carloadings ©
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Thous.of cars4*Q span)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
83.3
83.3
55.6
75.0
62.5
71.9
37.5
65.6
56.2
71.9
71.9
75.0
73.7
73=7
57.9
52.6
73.7
89.5
84.2
78.9
+28
+18
55.6
30.6
33.3
61.1
50.0
41.7
44.4
50.0
53.1
52,8
58.3
44.4
42.1
31.6
10.5
42.1
78.9
52.6
78.9
73.7
-51
-88
-130
-88
66.7
38.9
55.6
55.6
63.9
55.6
69.4
83.3
63.9
47.2
80.6
55.6
31.6
68.4
68.4
57.9
73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4
-16
+29
+52
-9
83.3
66.7
(NA)
83-3
75.0
63.9
72.2
50.0
69.4
50.0
(NA)
78.9
89.5
84.2
84.2
-9
-10
r-5
+21
+1
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter. .....
Second quarter.
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
ItCII OCTOBER
1969
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
Year
and
month
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
4-322
+366
+359
2,639
2,582
2,524
920
855
904
235
196
252
2,317
2,216
2,166
April
May
June
+410
+432
+398
2,608
2,549
2,582
793
1,005
961
215
220
218
2,198
2,118
2,184
July
August
September
+357
+421
+399
2,601
2,566
2,597
907
887
924
219
230
231
2,245
2,145
2,198
+161
+275
+184
2 415
2,671
829
871
258
^34
2,396
January
February
March
+120
+184
-150
2 814
2 775
2 439
909
1 007
1 314
April
May
June
+251
-15
+78
2,855
2,740
2,870
917
1,047
989
July
August
September
+133
+78
+260
2,858
2,950
3,211
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
-105
2 631
2 972
2 977
1 082
2 093
2 297
3 196
834
242
1 391
1 118
260
222
2 018
2 655
2 9A1
1 110
1 222
1 211
248
254
283
3 177
3 276
3 188
October....
November
December
...
9 £77
QQQ
2 ?*>/!.
pee
AQ3
2 )*+7J
215
260
2 AA7
2 592
252
2 5AA
244
237
2 604
1968
+89
+70
+75
-359
+215
April
May
Juno
+178
+16
+25
3 355
3 292
3 213
July
August
September
+106
+205
+271
3 172
3 385
3 326
223
2,755
2,792
914
988
923
246
r240
256
2,725
2,872
2,951
1 9AA
244
232
239
925
2 i 70/1
f pO
2 SA3
2 9QA
1 PI ^
r291
3 066
n 239
l
t»255
(NA)
(NA)
3 TAO
,?, .LOU
3 055
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
82
OCTOBER 1969
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance
basis
522. Official settlements
basis
(Mil. dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
and errors and omissions
525. 1
Liquidity balance
basis
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official settlements
basis2
VIM, dol.)
il. dol.)
1966
-600
-24
-426
-307
-344
-110
+481
+239
1,558
1,398
1,100
1,223
-2,158
-1,422
-1,526
-1,530
-1,902
-1,508
-619
-330
-1,031
-1,688
-1,711
-719
-71
-917
1,361
1,451
1,404
961
-1,856
-1,781
-2,<435
-2,649
-3,072
-2,170
-1,475
-1,878
-564
n-9
r-139
-379
+1,553
r+367
First quarter...
Second quarter.,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter.,
471
841
909
301
-1,035
r-832
r-1,048
14-561
-850
+712
-812
r+66
r+1,143
rp+1,243
(NA)
r363
p283
(NA)
r-2,016
p-3,994
(NA)
pH-960
-984
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-495
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+97
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
r-1,653
rp-3,711
(NA)
r+780
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
liabilities to
to ail
foreigners 3 ®
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
532. Liquid
official
and certain
reserve
npnliquid liabilities to
assets4 ©
foreign official
agencies3'®
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and services movements, excluding transfers under military grants
Income on investment, military
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted5
transactions, other serv., total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(MM. dol.)
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
28,738
28,819
29,432
29,779
1,0
604
16,305
15,797
1,4
603
15,026
14,958
1,7
486
14,882
10,562
10,667
10,936
11,196
9,004
9,269
9,836
9,973
7,218
7,194
7,413
28,990
29,620
31,211
33,119
16,295
17,424
1,1
789
1,0
942
13,855
1,7
424
1,4
469
14,830
1,6
141
1,8
144
11,577
11,667
1,0
010
10,033
1,7
013
1,0
076
7,601
32,482
r32,534
r33,493
r33,6l?
1,0
847
1,9
694
17,493
18,576
13,926
1,6
403
14,634
15,710
11,934
12,668
13,344
12,653
11,463
11,827
12,435
12,352
r34,923
r16,914
p599
!,9
15,758
pl6,057
rll,550
p!3,901
(NA)
(NA)
rll,913
pl4,!84
6,027
6,165
6,595
6,676
3,344
3,473
3,523
3,632
2,977
3,104
3,241
3,297
7,688
7,723
7,669
6,660
6,465'
6,542
7,154
3,773
3,761
3,908
4,066
3,440
3,568
3,631
3,552
7,941
8,395
8,879
8,383
7,817
8,131
8,566
8,458
3,993
4,273
4,465
4,270
3,646
3,696
3,869
3,894
r7,469
rp9,588
(NA)
r7,572
rp9,595
(NA)
r4,444
p4,596
(NA)
r3,978
P4,306
(NA)
7,564
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
P38,869
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available;
2
3
4
Series 520 minus series 250.
Series 522 minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at the end of quarter.
Reserve
5
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
ltd)
OCTOBER 1969
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarte-
Income on investment, military transactions and other services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
Military transactions
Travel
542, U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
ments abroad
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Transportation and other services
544. Receipts
545. Payments
546. Sales under 547. Military
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conexpenditures
abroad
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.doi.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.doi.)
(Mil.doi.)
548, Receipts
from
(Mil. doi.)
549, Payments
for
(Mil.doi.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,432
1,557
1,573
1,640
479
503
569
591
379
389
411
411
644
676
666
671
198
219
202
210
877
925
975
987
1,285
1,308
1,337
1,371
977
1,000
1,031
108
,4
1,612
1,560
1,801
1,879
584
591
580
607
416
391
416
423
701
841
914
739
333
335
239
332
1,085
1,075
1,106
1,102
1,412
1,455
1,452
1,432
1,070
],061
1,031
1,094
1,771
1,973
671
742
770
749
440
424
450
456
763
732
792
735
305
353
406
364
1,102
1,116
1,1A3
1,169
1,477
1,523
1,569
1,533
1,110
1,106
1,164
1,241
pl,0?8
(NA)
r503
P515
(NA)
r810
p830
(NA)
r418
P331
(NA)
rl,204
pi,217
(NA)
,
pi, 615
(NA)
rl,072
pi,181
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
2,040
1,917
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
r2,120
?2,135
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Year
and
quartet
Capital movements plus Government nonmilitary unilateral transfers
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.doi.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments 564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
abroad
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil.doi.)
(Mil.doi.)
(Mil.doi.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, ne'l
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil.doi,)
(Mil.doi.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter .,
Fourth quarter..
52
38
-113
110
728
934
917
1,060
173
520
107
109
322
80
87
-7
-1,063
-1,054
»789
-825
118
446
325
378
64
70
12
112
717
533
947
956
133
329
520
34
223
266
476
301
-1,121
-955
»96l
-1,174
462
467
-329
-199
251
5
23
41
472
1,009
1,262
283
839
•1,116
1,115
1,290
3H
164
337
455
-977
-359
-788
-366
230
245
96
577
p!
l9
(NA)
r928
pi,101
(NA)
r1,373
rp329
(NA)
p426
(NA)
r-891
p-1,289
(NA)
i-72
p-604
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" irdicates revised; "p" preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
84
OCTOBER 1969
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and expend tures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+)or
deficit (-) , national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
fail, don
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.doU
Defense indicators
602. Federal
264. National
expenditures,
defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
{Ann. rate,
bil.don
(Ann, rate,
bil.don
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647, New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)
1967
January . .
February .
March
-12.0
147.5
159.5
69.9
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
April
May
June
US. 3
161.4
71*9
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.17
-13.2
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
July ....
August. . .
September
-13*4
152! 8
165*3
73*6
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
October
November
December
-12! 3
156*4
168.8
74*6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
M46
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
January
February
March
-8*4
165!?
174*1
76*1
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
l'6o
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
April
May
June
-9*5
170*8
180.3
77*9
6,765
7,441
6,929
2,161
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
July
August
September
-2.B
181 '4
184.2
78!8
7,544
7,659
7,989
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.67
3.91
3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
3,836
October
November
December
-o.i
187 .*3
187 .*4
79*3
7,520
7,286
6,603
2,298
2,520
1,959
4.41
3.89
4.20
2.38
1.95
2.31
3,903
3,378
3,821
+9^6
i9a!i
188!5
79*6
7,852
7,216
6,303
2,307
2,207
1,542
4.02
4.39
3.31
1.84
2.31
2.15
3,468
3,658
2,777
+13* .'6
202 .*3*
189 ".3
78*5
6,340
6,279
r5,993
1,442
1,304
rl,507
4.02
3.81
2.87
2.08
1.79
1.27
2,639
2,673
2,618
(NA)
(NA)
Pl93.''7
p80.6
7,198
(NA)
1,462
(NA)
4.05
r3.77
P3.36
2.38
rl.46
pl.43
P3,129
P3,307
(NA)
1968
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order.. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
110
OCTOBER 1969
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q PRICE MOVEMENTS
and
month
Wholesale price indexes
Consumer price indexes
Year
781. All items® 782. Food
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
783. Commodities less foods
784. Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufactured goods®
ities®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
751. Processed
foods and
feads
782. Farm products
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
114.7
114.3
115.0
n4.3
114.5
107.4
107.8
108.0
225-5
125.9
126.3
106.2
106.0
105.7
106.4
106.4
106.3
111. 5
112
1.
102.5
100.5
99.3
April
May
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
114.0
114.4
115.1
108.4
108.7
108.9
126.6
127.0
127.4
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.6
111.0
ill. 6
112.3
97.2
100.1
102.7
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
115.2
115.8
115.6
109.2
109.6
110.1
127.7
128.2
128.7
106.5
106.1
106.2
106.8
106.8
107.1
112.0
in. 9
in. 9
101.1
99.1
98.0
117.5
114.9
ma. 2
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March . . .
117. 8
110.4
118.2
115.7
116.1
116.6
no. 7
110.9
129.1
129.6
130.1
106.1
106.2
106.8
107.1
107.3
107.6
111.7
in.5
111.7
98.3
97.6
99.7
118. 6
119.0
119.5
117.2
117.5
118.2
111.3
111.7
112.1
130.8
131-3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.1
H3.1
113,6
99.3
100.8
101.8
April
May
June
119.9
120.3
120.9
118.7
119.3
119.1
112.2
112.5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
114.1
114.4
113.9
101.7
102.8
102.6
July
August
September
121.5
121.9
122.2
119.2
119.5
120.0
113.3
113.7
114.0
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
114.6
114.6
114.5
102.1
101.2
102.7
October . , .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
122.9
123.4
123.7
120.8
121.0
121.6
114. 4
114.8
115.0
136.6
137.4
138.1
109.1
109.6
109.8
110.0
110.3
110.5
U4.5
115.3
114.9
102.7
104.7
103.9
124.1
124-6
125.6
122.2
122.0
122.8
115.1
115.9
n?.0
139.0
139.7
140.9
110.7
111.1
111.7
111.3
in. 7
112.2
115.7
116 ,1
117.1
105.3
104.5
106.2
April
May
June
126.4
126,8
127.6
123.6
124.2
125.5
U7.2
H7.5
118.0
142.0
142.7
143.3
111.9
112.8
113.2
112.4
112.8
132
1.
118.6
120.2
120,7
105.1
109.6
111.3
July
....
August
September .
128.2
128.7
129.3
125.8
126.4
127.1
118.2
118.4
118.8
144.0
145.0
146.0
113-3
113.4
U3.6
113.5
113-6
113.9
120.7
121.1
120*5
108.5
108.7
108.3
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
86
OCTOBER 1969
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter. .....
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter-... .
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bi!. dol.)
649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1
-11.5
-l l
l.
-10.0
-11.5
666.5
670.5
673.0
683.5
663.1
669.6
676.2
682.9
-3.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6
693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3
723.1
726.7
P730.4
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
717.2
724.3
731.4
-5.9
-2.4
p-1.0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to date.
ItCII OCTOBER
1969
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
QQ ANALYTICAL RATIOS
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852, Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural job openings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Percent)
Year
and
month
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59-100)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
(1957-59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
70.52
77.91
77.89
129^6
2.42
Z.l-2
2.JL3
77.72
77.79
77.84
6.3
O.H7
0.120
0.115
130^6
2.A.3
2.U
2.43
78.11
70.23
70.36
6.1
0.077
0.109
0.118
0.119
131".!
2.43
2.U
2.45
77.94
70.49
78.16
5.'6
121.2
119.6
118.3
0.069
0.128
0.124
0.129
132.6
2.47
2.46
2.48
70.17
78.71
70.57
$"$
3-41
3.36
3.28
117.9
118.0
117-5
0.672
0.137
0.140
0.132
134li
2.47
2.48
2.48
70.29
70.55
70.63
y.i
rl.51
1.54
1.52
3.17
3.38
3.24
117.3
116.3
117.7
0.056
0.129
0.132
0.132
134.*4
2.48
2.49
2.49
70.39
70.52
70.94
5*4
paiia
1.53
1.53
1.56
3.19
3.22
3.38
117.0
120.1
119.4
0.063
0.134
0.1AO
0.143
135 !8
2.49
2.50
2.51
70.64
70.31
78.66
4^9
p84^5
1.54
1.53
1.54
3.22
3.18
3.21
118.9
118.7
118.5
0.053
0.1A1
0.1A3
0.134
135!6
2.51
2.50
2.49
70.52
70.05
70.31
'i.o
rp$l'.5
1.54
1.54
1.53
3.24
3.26
3.17
120.0
121.8
r 122,0
r 0.053
0.133
0.138
0.139
Pl34i6
2.48
2.48
2.48
70.20
7S.25
78.27
sli
1.55
pl.54
(NA)
3.20
3.15
(NA)
rl20.2
r!20.6
P120.9
pO.064
0.124
0.120
pO.104
(NA)
2.50
r2.52
p2.50
70.03
r?S,34
P78.53
1.57
1.59
1.59
3.51
3.50
3.46
126.0
127.6
125.6
0.075
0.138
0.133
0.127
128^3
April
May
June
85.0
1.59
1.59
1.57
3.53
3.50
3-48
124.3
124.6
123-3
0.676
0.121
0.118
0.117
July
August
September
84.'3
rl.58
1.57
1.57
3.54
3.40
3.48
123.1
121.7
122.3
0.674
October
November
December
84!e
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.44
3.39
119.4
122.2
119.9
p84^9
1.55
1.54
1.54
3.37
3.36
3.39
April .
May
June
pdi!a
1.55
1.54
1.52
July
August
September
p84.0
October....
November
December
July
August
September
(Percent)
2.42
2.43
8?!i
April
May
June
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
2.41
January
February
March
1969
January
February
March
859. Real
spendable avg,
wkly, earnings,
nonngri. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers
(l)
1967
1968
January
February
March
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
pdi'.i
6.6
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
OCTOBER 1969
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
|
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
C1)
1967
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB {17 industries)
C1)
1-month span
9-month span
1-quarter span
3 -quarter span
January
February
March
69.0
7.1
81.0
11.9
9.5
9.5
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
April . .
May
June
40.5
28.6
64.3
16.7
33. 1
31.0
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65.7
53
41
71.4
59.5
?6.2
76.2
61.9
40.5
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
23.6
71.4
45.2
81.0
69.0
14.3
60.0
54.3
74.3
71.4
71.4
68.6
41
41
1968
January
February
March
14.3
90.5
21.4
57-1
64.3
64.3
51.4
55.7
50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
53
April
May
June
11.9
90.5
73.8
33.3
85.7
88.1
40.0
54.3
51.4
68.6
68.6
80.0
65
59
July
August
September
33.3
33.1
83.3
35.7
47.6
76.2
51.4
44.3
78.6
71*4
88,6
82.9
71
62
October....
November
December
1969
January
February
March
47-6
16.7
52.4
28.6
42.9
50.0
60.0
44.3
55.7
88.6
77.1
85.7
47
76
52.4
28.6
90.5
40.5
19.0
23.8
57.1
62.9
40.0
82.9
68.6
r60.0
53
p65
April
May
June
47-6
43.9
47.6
r38.1
P33.3
54.3
45.7
40. 0
r51.4
P74.3
P53
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
..
23.6
r45.2
P45.2
July
August
September
r60.0
r41.4
P74.3
(NA)
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are
" the
placed on the 1st month of' the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates
revised; *p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on revised data from July 1968 to date. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," July 1969 issue.
IICII OCTOBER
1969
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con,
Year
and
month
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
stocks (77 industries)© 1
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
9-month span
1-quarter span
1-month span
9-month span
43
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
April
May
June,
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
34.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53-8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
78.7
66.0
October
November
December .
1968
January
February
March
5$
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
3S.3
74.5
46.8
80.9
70.2
78.7
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
ao.9
25.5
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
April
May . . . ,
June
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
85.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
53.8
61.5
73.1
63.8
51.1
53.2
38.3
51.1
74.5
July
August
September
56
48.7
17.8
86.7
93.3
97.3
81.3
46.2
65-4
57.7
76.9
57*7
76.9
57.4
40.4
63.8
36.2
66.0
76.6
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
58
82.7
77.3
72.7
71.3
52.0
56.0
69.2
69.2
38.5
92.3
92.3
84.6
66.0
31.9
61,7
63.8
78.7
59.6
53
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
U.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
72.3
38.3
55.3
70.2
46.8
40.4
52
54.0
74.7
1.3
12.0
6,7
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
88.5
48.9
57.4
23.4
58.5
34.0
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Septembsr
October
November
December
(NA)
1-montti span
61.5
76.9
57.7
4.0
34.7
61.3
g
9-month span
3
1-month span
51.1
59.6
38.3
38.5
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans; 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 1E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through Auguat 1960; and on 75 eomponante thereafter.
^Average for October 7, 14, and 21.
90
OCTOBER 1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
D54. Sales off retail stores
(23 types of stores)
9-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
1967
January.
February
March
66.7
35.0
40.0
50.o
43.3
41.7
29.2
20.8
43.8
45.8
29.2
27.1
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95-7
April
May
June
40.0
36.7
65.0
36.7
40.0
40.0
52.1
16.7
50.0
29.2
41.7
41.7
47-7
54.5
47.7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August
September
41.7
66.7
46.7
51.7
76.7
66.7
47.9
75.0
41.7
54.2
66.7
75.0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
October
November
December
65.0
93.3
73.3
68.3
83.3
85.0
56.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95.7
73.9
1968
January
February
March
68.3
75.0
65.0
96.7
86.7
86.7
37.5
70.8
75.0
77.1
83.3
75.0
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
95.5
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
April
May
June
66.7
66.7
85.0
86.7
85.0
76.7
41.7
70.8
79.2
83.3
70.8
79.2
72.7
63.6
61.4
75-0
84.1
81.8
26.1
60.9
65.2
87.0
91.3
87.0
July
August
September
63.3
81.7
58.3
78.3
81.7
75.0
58.3
64.6
66.7
75.0
75.0
70.8
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
81.8
86.4
63.0
58.7
34.8
78.3
47-8
78.3
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
71.7
80.0
73.3
81.7
80.0
80.0
68.8
75.0
64.6
66.7
70.8
79.2
79.5
79.5
61.4
81.8
81.8
90.9
52.2
54.3
21.7
82.6
65.2
65.2
90.0
70.0
70.0
83.3
75.0
76.7
54.2
62.5
91.7
81.2
75.0
r77.1
68.2
72.7
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
73-9
60.9
21.7
73.9
78.3
r71.7
April
May
June
41.7
61.7
70.0
r66.7
r70.0
p65.0
45.8
66.7
r70.8
r70.8
r68.8
p70.8
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
41.3
54.3
65.2
P78.3
r36.7
56.7
P41.7
July
August
September
r41.7
r54.2
P43.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
r45.7
r67.4
P39.1
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used
except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the -components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not
available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
ItCII OCTOBER
1969
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1969
Diffusion index components
February
March
May
April
July
June
SeptemberP
August
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
40.1 +
(29)
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
+
+
+
-
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+
+
40.9
40.8
40.7 o
(90)
(48)
(43)
-
+
4
+
+
+
40,5
r40,G
r40,4
r42,0
r42,l
41,4
+ 40.7
+ 40.2
- 40.0
+ 42.2
o 42.1
- 41.3
r*2,5
r40,4
r41.2
r41,0
r38.9
- 42.3
o 40.4
+ 41.5
o 41.0
+ 39.0
r40,9
r37,2
r40,8
36,0
r42«8
+ 41.3
- 37.0
- 40.7
- 35.9
- 42.7
(29)
(43)
40.7
(45)
o
+
-
r40.2
r39. 7
40.1
r41.7
41.5
r41.6
o
+
+
+
42.5
40.6
41.6 +
40.9 o
39.2 -
42.2
40.3
r42.3
r40.9
r39.1
+
4
40.9
36.4 +
41.1
36.0 +
43.4
40.8
38.1 +
41.0 +
36.1 +
43.0
40.7
39.5
41.2 o
36.2 42.9 +
40.6
r38.2
r41.2
r36.0
43.0
+
-
+
+
+
o
38.4 o
41.8 o
43.0
41.4
37.6
38.4
41.8
42.2
41.3
37.4
38,4 - 38.3
38.5
41,8 - 41.5
r41.9
r42.9 r42,7 o
42.7
r4l.2 . r40,9 o 40.9
r36,0 + 37.2
r37.0 -
+
+
+
+
+
+
40.8 +
40.9
40.7 +
42.3
41.9
41.9
42.3
39.7
41.6
39.7
37.6
+
+
o
+
+
42.7
40.7 +
41.6
40.7 +
39.0 +
40.9
40.2 +
40.9 o
42.0 +
41.8
41.8
42.6 o
40.9
41.5
40.8 o
39.5
40.7
36.6
39.9
35-2
42.5
+
+
+
+
40.9
36.5
40.9
36.0
43.2
37.9
41.7
42.6
40.7
35,3
+
o
+
+
+
38.3 o
41.7
43.2
41.4 o
37.6 +
+
o
+
40.7
40.9
40.2
40.7
41.9
41.7
41.8
40.3
40.8
40.1
42.2
41.6
41.2
o
40.6
40.3
40.9
42.1
41.7
41.6
42.6
40.6
41-1
40.8
39.1
40.6 +
40.7 o
(48)
38.3
41.6
42,9
41.4
37.7
+
-
+
+
+
_
-
+
-
o
-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+
30,482 -
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
+
+
29,697 +
(40)
(63)
4,666
2,071 +
...
-
30,944 -
4,614
2,110 +
4,806
2,307 -
2,980
2,841
+
+
+
5,626
:} 417
+
+
+
+
+
+
3,158
+
+
+
860
339 +
+
...
+
511
...
676 +
350 +
585
5,161
2,510 +
3,157
3,197
+
+
r5,001
5,276
2,370 + (NA)
+
+
;}
+
685 +
429
+
439 t+
+
ws
5,627
!
}
735 I
361
+
+
501 +
(NA)
3,091
+
+
+
-
+
(74)
(4X)
4,825
2,308 +
+
4+
5,579
+
504
(60)
+
5,650
477 !
}
(40)
4,772
2,246 +
+
+
...
+
5,538
$
29,171 + r31;069 - r3Q,4S2 + 32,284
3,H9
+
+
„
29,998 (46)
(54)
5,433
5,5X3
;}
540
500 +}
+
716 664 +
303 +
314
+
+
501
...
:) <NA>
(NA)
704 +
274 +
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
0
561
489 +
534 -
4>
+
+
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - risjng, (o) = unchanged, and (-) ~ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. * Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
are seasonally adjusted "by source agency.
92
OCTOBER 1969
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
February
April
March
June
May
July
August
September
E)6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Millions of dollars)
3,746
3,767
Electrical machinery
*
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*.
Household appliances
,
Radio and TV
Communication equipmentt
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
;+> «*
+
...
+ 1,036
+
...
; 723
}
+
.
+}
- 1,003
+
Instruments, total
Lumber total
Furniture, total
Stone clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods total
4~
1,165
4,079
l 687
)
...
800
961
7,107
+
+
+
+
. •
+
7,695
...
_i+
--
7,228
•. *
6,341
+
+
+
-t-
+
+
~h
...
+
...
.* .
+
...
+
+
+
+
-
94.71
P7,907
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
- (NA)
r7,657
...
+
+•
+} (NA)
+
1,242- 1,082
+
+
r7,554
+
-)+
+
+
.(-
i+
(NA)
3,707
7 1 ! 752
1
}
+•
...
+
+
692
+
. . .+
Other transportation equipment
}
W !
3,664
;
}
f
+
+
+
3,710
+
7,842
Motor vehicles and parts, total
Complete aircraft!
Aircraft partst
3,928
!!!
\]\
+
...
+
+
.!.
-
94.18
+
94.51
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 - 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
-
Percenf rising of 7 5 components ...........
101.46
-
(43)
Coal, bituminous
Food composite.
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Text! le products
Paper
Publishing
+
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
+
Automobi les
Radio and television broadcasters
+
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
+
o
+
+
(54)
104.62
-
99.14
(4)
(1)
(75)
+
+
+
+
Steel
Metal fabricating
+ 101.26 +
(13)
+
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite .
99.30
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
...
...
*..
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
!!.
+
...
+
+
+
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
+
+
...
+
-j-
...
-l-|-
+
+
+
—
0
+
...
_
+
+
+
...
_
—
+
-
+
+
+
+
-H
•f-
+
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
(61)
(35)
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential, by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
2
BCII OCTOBER
1969
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
February
March
+
106.3
+
July
August
October 1
September
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
D23.
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59=100)
June
May
April
106.9
+
109.3
+
110.4
+
111.6
+
U2.4 +
•t+
.577 4.078 +
2
+
115. O J +
117.4
-
115.6
(Dollars)
(62)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
. .
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd,), average
Wool topsflb.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
.448
.066
27, 256
1.668
.H4
.163
.256
.212
1.576
.164
11.803
.247
.049
(46)
+
0
.480
.066
- 25.407
»
1.584
o
.144
.154
.255
+
.213
1.575
.163
+ 11.891
+
.260
+
.056
(58)
(65)
+
.534
+
.070
+ 25.536
1.567
+
.146
.143
.254
+
.217
1.572
+
.193
o 11.893
+
.265
+
.059
+
.545
+
.073
+ 30.6^4
- 1.565
+
.150
.136
.250
4.224
+ 1.584
.190
t- U.964
.255
o
,059
(77)
+
.561
+
.074
+ 31.283
+ 1.594
+
.151
+
.140
o
.250
.221
+ 1.597
.179
o n.964
+
.260
+
.064
(62)
; ?:$
o
.151
+
o
(77)
.604
.079
31.408
1.663
(58)
.601
.076
i yi-.m ; «
+
+
.160
.152
o
-
o
.257
.220
+
+
+
t+
+
.151
.143
.2:57
.221
1.578
.168
12.5'50
.304
.076
+ 1.583
+
.202
4 12.S33
.285
+•
.079
197 +
196
(60)
©
+
4
©
.160
.160
.260
.220
1.544
.193
12.97&
.270
.073
201
(51)
+
(38)
.600
.073
.145
.249
.221
-1.572
.172
12.410
.270
,068
+
o
+
4
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)
186
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7) . . .
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11).
New York (1)
Paterson (21)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23).
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3).
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
+
(38)
184
+
(55)
(57)
(49)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
•*•
+
+
+
+
+
+
~
4+
+
+
...
+
...
+
•*"
...
+
..• +
+
+
+
+
. .
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
+
4.
+
...
.1.
+
+
+
!!.!
+
4
4-
\\\
...
4-
\\\
4
4
!!!
+
...
...
44
,
]j[
\\ *
+
+
•+•
...
4-
+
+
4=
+
+
+
(38)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(23)
+
+
_
201
180
176
\\
+
+
f
.
+
4
+
+
4-
H-
+
«. . 4
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) •- falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r ~ revised.
1
Average for October 7, 14, and 21.
Soriee components are eeasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted,
3
The signs are reversed because this aeries usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of th© G©as«s before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of ohange are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. Th© number following the area designation indicates it@ 3^00 rank.
2
94
OCTOBER 1969
ltd*
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
February
March
May
April
June
July 1 *
September13
August
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
+
Percent rising of 30 components ,
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
69,487 +
(70)
195 +
52? +
410 o
+
+
537
+
1,056
+ 11 5
,1
+ 1,370
+ 1,355
- 1,426
+
289
346
.
„
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
,
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
.
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
„. . .
Transportation and public utilities . . . „
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servi-ce and miscellaneous
„....
Federal government
State and local government
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
12 5
, 1
69
883
1,238
555
672
620
101
448
302
628
3,366
4,373
3,714
10,754
3,502
10,967
2,767
9,355
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
o
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
69,710 +
69,789 +
(42)
(70)
197
528
410
535
1,063
11 1
, 2
1,363
1,364
1,432
292
349
193
525
+
413
529
- 1,057
11 8
,1
+ 1,370
+ 1,369
- 1,420
o
292
348
1,208
69
880
1,246
555
673
620
116
449
301
626
3,374
4,399
3,726
10,782
3,515
11,034
2,759
9,373
- 1,205
68
875
+ 1,252
549
672
617
+
118
o
449
300
624
3,363
+
4,439
+
3,737
+ 10,796
+ 3,531
+ 11,044
o
2,758
+
9,386
70,013 +
(62)
192
+
530
412
526
+ 1,062
+ 11 1
,2
- 1,366
+ 1,381
- 1,399
+
294
347
+ 1,206
+
69
871
+ 1,255
+
554
669
o
617
o
118
+
451
o
300
622
+ 3,407
+
4,A44
+ 3,758
+ 10,851
+ 3,541
+ 11,065
2,754
+
9,453
70,300 - 70,247
(70)
(37)
188
528
411
+
532
+ 1,076
+ 1,122
+ 1,377
- 1,379
+ 1,434
292
+
348
- 1,201
o
69
+
873
o 1,255
+
556
-i674
+
623
+
119
+
455
299
o
622
+ 3,466
+
4,467
+ 3,774
+ 10,891
+ 3,557
o 11,066
+ 2,790
+
9,469
+ r70,405 o
70,398
(57)
187
520
408 +
- 526 o
+ 1,077 +
o 1,122 +
- 1,369 o
+ 1,388 - 1,430 +
291 +
+
350
- 1,197 +
68 +
o
873
- 1,248 555 +
+
675 +
620 o
o
119
o
455
294 +
+
629 +
- 3,434 + 4,483 o
o 3,773 +
+ 10,898 +
+ 3,568 +
o 11,067 +
- 2,777 - 9,454 -
(42)
r!83
r519
r410
526
rl,087
rl,132
rl,369
rl,386
rl,583
r292
r347
180
519
413
530
1,097
1,134
1,381
1,384
1,465
292
347
1,228
69
861
1,242
556
678
613
17
1
450
293
626
3,390
4,478
3,782
10,904
3,595
1,6
11 7
2,742
9,A24
o
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
rl,209 +
r72
r864
r 1,244 r557
r676 +
r620
18
1
r454
r295
r630
r3,401 4,482 r3,775 +
rlO,918 r3,582 +
rll,106 •f
r2,752 r9,414 +
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
+
Percent rising of 24 components 2
i Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
170.1 +
(62)
1 14 +
7 .
(92)
171.7 + 172.5 +
(46)
(67)
+ 143)6 + 146)2 + 147)9 +
149)3 +
+ 177.6 + 178.5 - 178.3 + 179.2 +
+ 189)6 + 190.2 +
200.7 + 196.9 +
+ 173.1 + 174.1 + 192.8 +
- 190.4
190)8
199.5
172.4
195.4
+ 193)l
+ 201.8
- 1 18
7 .
- 195.3
r!73.7 + 174.6
(42)
(71)
-
rl53)l - 152)6
r!80.6 - 179.0
+
+ 195)3
- r!99.6
+ 176.6
+ 195.7
174.3 - 173.8
(54)
(44)
151
180
rl5l)5
rl80.8
+ 196)6 - rl95)3
+ 200.8 + r204.1 o
+ 1 15 - 181.2
8 .
- 194.7 + r!95.8 +
195
204
178
197
153^4 +
+ 156)5 156)9 rl55)2 - 152)7
155)1 +
+ 126.7 + 130.8 - 122.6 - 120.7 - H5.5 - H3.4
.
+ 1-156)6 +
- pl!2.2
+
141
158
(NA)
187i6 +
186i5 +
IBs! 9 + 196)2 - 189)9 - 185)6
164.7 + 165.7 + 167.6 - 167.5 + 168.1 - 167.4
+ rl86)9
- rl66.6 +
187
168
-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) Arising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) ^falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Vhere actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
OCTOBER 1969
Directions
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
February
March
April
June
May
July
August
September
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
"
•-
rlA3.5 +
pisa.o
PU4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
- 152! 6 + 152.9 + 154.2 + 156.5 + 157.8 147.8 + 150.0 - r!49.2 +
- 147.9 + 150.2
103.4 + 107.6 - rl04.7 - 101.3 4- 105.6
r!57.0
p!53.2
plOl.8
175 !6 +
+ 173! 9 +
- 152.1 + 153.0
175^8 174^9 + rl75 3 +
152.7 + 155.9 + 156.5 4-
rl76,!i rl58,,3 +
rl?6!6
P158.6
pl6§
(NA)
p!57
Chemicals petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
234*. 4 +
235 '.2 +
142.7
236.2 -
239*.l +
142. 2 +
234.2 +
239*. 5 +
143.5 +
237.0 +
r239i7 +
145.4 r237.3 +
-r242',6 «
r!43,5 +
p239™0
r224.1
p238.1
pl46,8
(NA)
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+
140^9 +
Hois
110.5 +
138^6 115.4 +
1383 +
121.9 -
+
r338i! 9 +
P120(,3
ri38.0 ©
P139.4
(NA)
p338
141.5 118.7
- 112.4 +
U4.3 +
- 121.8 + 123.5 +
120.2 +
126.9 +
123.9 +
129.6 +
r!24.8 134.8 -
123,7
rl32,,l +
117.0
132.7
+
146 '.6 141.4
134!5 +
141.2 +
137 '.4 +
142.6 -
rl3dli *
r!42,,2 +
P115
p!32
t>139
pl39ll
p!42.4
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+ 140.2 +
+ 232.8 +
+
121.2
142*.7 +
149!l -
+ 149.2 + 150.5 -
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
M
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING 1NDUSTRI ES2
(1957-59-100)
All manufacturing industries
+
H1.7 4-
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
1 22 41 .
112.4 4-
(75)
(73)
(84)
112.9
108.1
98.1
102.4
1 11
0.
126.1
+ 108.3 4308.4 +
4
98.3
98.2
103 o2 »
4 103.3
4- 1 12 4- 102.5 40 .
- 125.7 + 126.4 o
108. a
108.7 +
98.7
ioi!a
102.5 103.0
102.7
326.4 4= 128.2
116.4
104.6
104.2
92.1
1 28
1 .
1 73
1 .
104.5
104.3
92.4
113.0
+
+
+
+
-
106.8
97.8
99.5
100.5
123.4
4+
+
124.0
123.2
106.2 + 106.4
H3.0 + 113.5
113.2
112.7 4
108.0 +
97,9 410215
101.2
126.0 +
116.3 +
104.8
104.4
92.3
112.7 +
4-
125,3
106 a *
113,0 o
1 11 +
1.
121.3
121.5
105.7 4- 105.9
104.8 + 105.0
92.1
92.7
115. a + 116.2
+
o
o
+ 107.4
+
98.0
4- 1 17
0 .
4- 100.9
o 123.4
113.6 + 113.9
(68)
(77)
+ 121.4 + 122.0 - 104.5 + 105.3 +
4105.0 o 105.0 92.6 +
4
92.7
4- 113.3 4- 113.9 +
132,4
1 02
1 .
120.4
120.0
116.6
104.3
106.4
112.7
+
+
+
(77)
U9.4
104.6
104.3
92.6
+
+
o
+
H6.5 4104.2 +
106.3 +
112.5 +
+
113,5 -
+
+
o
+
128.9
109.4
120.4
1 91
1 .
1 61
1 .
1Q3.5
106.4
112.5
o
(84)
129.8 o 105.9 +
+
112.8 +
+ 1 03 +
1 .
4+
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
133.2 4-
138.0
105.9
112.6
109.9
134.2
1 08
1 .
120.5
120.3
117.6
104.5
106.5
U2.8
143.3
105.8
112,3
108.9
129.9
109.6
120.4
119.8
(80)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+ 144.5 + 149.5 »
+ 105.4 4- 105.7 +
+ 1 12 +
1.
1 19 +
1.
+ 108.0 + 108.8 +
44o
+
1 2 8 41.
4- 135.5 4- 136,1 + 139.5 +• 143.5
41 10 + 112.0 + 112.6 +
1.
H2. 8
4- 120.7 + 121,3 + 123.2 f 124.2
+ 1 12 + 121,5 + 121.8 f 122.6
2 .
+
1 78 41 .
1 81 + 118.5 + 119.2
1 ,
104. a » 104.7 + 105.4
4 104.7 +
^
0
+ 106.6
106.6
106.0
106.1
+
1 51 4- 115.5 + 115.9 + 116.4
1 .
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) • falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA :r- not available, p - preliminary, r • revised.
are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
96
OCTOBER 1969
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
February
March
May
April
July r
June
August
September?
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
+
29,289
+
+
+
.+
5,955
2,123
2,924
298
+
+
+
534
416
645
261
Percent rising of 23 components
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) .
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
+
+
+
-
28,916 + 29,442 (22)
(61)
+
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
-
-
+
+
5,839
2,133
3,080
294
517
393
615
245
+
+
+
+
558
414
649
266
+
+
-
5,906
2,186
3,011
285
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
560
375
658
306
+
+
o
+
+
852
445
899
291
895
478
951
283
5,099 +
419 +
2,132 960 +
Am 4-
5,145 427
2,106 +
963 +
5,102
414
2,119
996
An*
AlQ
5,863
2,110
3,143
287
+
+
+
5,172 435
2,091 +
959 +
(67)
+
+
+
902
455
943
281
(46)
(54)
o
903
436 +
974
287
+ r29,411 + 29,697
5,868
2,191
2,991
294
552
375
640
296
922
400 +
992
269 +
- 29,090
_
+
+
546
399
633
266
920 +
431
1,049
281
Am
- 29,371
(41)
(74)
5,883
2,10?
2,895
296
29,386
+
o
-
5,220
414
2,086
975
4-
A97
0
t4-
5,011
408
2,080
994
A;,?
(39)
+
-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P570 P399 p658 P344 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P838
-f
p909 p278 -
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p6,033
p2,lM
P3,052
P289
P419
+
+
+
+
-
P5,031
P403
p2,096
pi, 016
nA^Q
fHA^
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) ~ falling, Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p * preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
2
ItCII
OCTOBER
1969
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices® prices©
Year
and
month
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
132. United King- 135. West Germany 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
prices®
consumer prices© prices©
138. Japan, index
of consumer
137* Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-400)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
115
115
115
117
117
118
129
129
129
123
123
123
141
141
153
154
154
137
138
138
April
May
June
115
116
116
119
H9
120
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
138
138
139
July
August
September
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
124
123
123
142
143
143
152
153
156
139
139
140
118
118
118
121
121
122
129
131
131
123
123
123
144
145
145
159
159
160
140
140
340
n9
119
120
123
123
123
132
133
133
125
125
125
147
147
147
161
161
162
140
140
140
April
May
June
120
120
121
124
124
124
136
136
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
141
141
141
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
137
137
126
1^5
125
149
149
150
162
162
168
140
140
141
123
123
124
126
127
127
137
138
140
126
126
127
152
152
153
1,66
167
166
34JL
141
341
124
125
126
127
127
128
140
141
142
128
128
129
155
155
156
167
167
169
142
142
143
126
127
128
129
130
131
143
143
143
129
129
129
156
157
158
171
171
171
343
143
344
128
129
129
131
132
131
143
143
(MA)
130
130
130
158
159
(NA)
rl?5
174
145
(MA)
. .
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
... .
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March. ,
April
May
June
July .
August
September
iw
(NA)
October,
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e" r estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
98
OCTOBER 1969
ItOI
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1957-59-100)
Year
and
month
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59-100)
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
128. Japan, index of industrial
production
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
Revised
1967
January. .
February .
March
158
157
157
166
166
166
130
130
131
156
154
156
151
150
150
298
295
304
r!55
154
154
206
208
207
April
May
June
157
156
156
168
167
168
132
131
131
153
152
156
150
150
148
305
312
317
155
r!54
155
210
21
1
211
July
August.
September
156
158
157
169
170
170
131
131
132
157
157
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
r!57
r!56
r!58
2 1
1
208
212
October . .
November
December
157
160
162
169
173
174
133
134
137
159
161
164
157
157
170
338
346
349
r!59
rl60
rl65
216
216
215
1968
January
February
March . . .
161
162
163
172
172
173
135
137
139
164
165
169
159
161
166
348
354
351
rl62
rl63
rl66
218
220
221
April
May
June
162
164
166
175
176
179
137
139
139
167
16
1
136
165
167
180
362
372
373
rl6.5
r!57
222
222
223
July
August
September
166
165
165
178
178
180
139
140
141
171
171
171
167
178
177
382
382
389
168
rl?l
October.. .
November
December
166
168
169
182
184
185
141
142
144
179
182
184
176
185
187
397
407
401
r!75
r!80
235
226
233
January
February
March
169
170
171
185
187
191
142
144
145
183
180
180
186
189
190
403
410
405
r!80
r!80
r!82
238
233
240
April
May
June
172
172
174
187
186
r!86
144
144
145
185
185
183
189
195
197
428
429
435
r!83
r!84
r!85
242
236
r243
175
174
pl74
p!86
(NA)
P145
(NA)
(NA)
r!90
p!98
(NA)
r446
P443
(NA)
(NA)
P243
rl65
r!73
10.78
223
217
234
1969
Juiv
August. . .
September
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA\ not available.
1
Qrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
OCTOBER 1969
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
I
Q STOCK PRICES
Year
and
month
19. United States,
143. Canada, index 142. United Kingindex of stock
of stock prices® dom, index of
stock prices ©
prices, 500 common
stocks ®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
146. France, index
of stock prices ®
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
index of stock
of stock prices ©
prices ®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
147. Italy, index
of stock prices ®
P23
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
171
177
11
8
175
180
182
April
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
no
156
175
182
231
215
209
129
133
October
November
December
1968
January . .
February
March
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
198
143
139
135
193
184
11
8
189
177
171
202
208
107
104
13
1
205
209
207
203
208
209
134
130
133
194
193
183
1£5
187
17
1
11
1
216
220
136
219
226
229
23^
135
T33
OQA
&yj
pi.<a
£t*-3
T*A
1«?0
*3«3T
^Kl
2ft)
ort^L
T OC>
138
l^A
XjJo
1 1
3
April
May
June
20L
213
235
246
252
107
229
228
231
231
142
141
127
L29
132
130
139
July
August ....
September. ,
onq
*iUj}
yfa
^05
T AO
iyy
205
272
"I p Ji
1 2
9
1O5
< 1
?
19&
±yo
979
<>(7
T AC
'?2A
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
210
203
270
104
228
275
21 A
07-3
105
22/L
2&L
127
216
204
210
279
109
219
266
134
207
21A
291
m
21*3
228
208
282
270
1 1
2
130
230
231
27Q
232
279
1 ^5
-k3?
206
201
April
May
June
205
212
201
224
209
266
253
235
128
136
124
233
243
293
302
304
152
153
150
July
August
September
1 92
199
199
204
•r227
22A
22Q
11
2
5>^ft
QAT)
JW
o/,7
OCIQ
£y3
Ten
lP^
5>5O
OTA
>>nl %l
rpj.p4
— oc£
~Q57
p^f
October
November
December
-1 QQ
TQT
192
r>197
-1
Qrt
213
n2Cn
rt227
p^.mf
-LU3
n!27
n2
! 7
•nioo
247
254
JJ.U
T3^
136
Tj /
„
! /I
plo4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
100
OCTOBER 1969
ItCII
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1
969
Series
Jan.
4. Nonagricultural placements, all
industries1
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance
L3 New business incorporations
1
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales, mfg. 2 .
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
insurance companies 1 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
87 4
151.3
118 2
Feb.
81 3
114.5
93 7
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
92 2
100 4
102 3
111 3
105 2
110 2
118 1
114 2
94 6
92.5
93.3
78.4
79.3
122.0
84.9
70.7
80.0
97.8
135.0
108 1
105 3
102 0
101 8
101 0
91 3
92 9
101 5
84 0
100 1
103.9
97.8
-272
-448
102.3
101.0
-111
107.0
109.8
49. Nonagricultural job openings
unfilled
72. Commercial and. industrial loans
outstanding.
5
112 Change in business loans
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
616. Defense Department obligations,
tota 1
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
625. Military contract awards in U.S —
034. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6 . . .
+59
106.5
+93
103.4
+107
+157
103.1
101.3
102.2
83.4
84.7
94.5
109.0
120.1
103.0
99.3
98.7
100.5
100.0
99.3
101.8
101.2
100.2
99.0
100.1
100.1
99.9
100.6
106.0
101.7
99.1
99.7
91.2
80.6
95.6
97.9
77.2
71.0
96.0
87.1
81.0
88.7
-15
111.3
+18
95.6
99.0
91.9
93.6
A? *s
102.0
96.2
+215
Dec.
Nov.
+126
-169
+238
rtrt
-|
OO..L
91.7
97.7
106 2
98.3
115.6
106.5
94.1
79.8
99.0
100.1
99.2
99.5
101.1
100.8
100.0
99.4
99.7
99.6
100.3
99.6
92.3
93.2
94.3
99.0
100.7
94.4
151.1
94.5
102.3
112.3
100.1
85.6
94.7
99.0
96,9
204.9
58.2
102.6
122.3
100.5
76.3
95.9
86.4
96.6
185.7
101.7
-9
87.9
115.0
98.7
79.4
92.2
+16
98.0
111.1
+8
103.0
...
NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census pr the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15.The X-ll Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, .April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index:
Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for tiie latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency Quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbe@n seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quartedy
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
1.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
45.3
40.8
45.4
40.4
40.4
40.6
44.5
39.8
4C.3
44.3
39.8
40.1
40*8
40*3
45.1
40.4
40.2
44.3
40.5
40*5
1948**
1949..
1950*.
40.4
40*2
40.3
40*2
40.3
4C*2
40*0
39*3
39.4
39.7
39*0
38.6
40*1
38*8
39.7
40.2
38.9
4C.5
1951..
1952..
1953*.
40*9
40.8
40.7
40.9
41.0
40.6
41.1
41.2
40.1
41*0
40.9
4C.4
40.9
4C.7
1954*.
1955*.
1956*.
39.5
40.3
40.8
39.7
39.4
39*4
40. 5
40*6
40*6
40.6
40*6
39.5
40.6
4C.1
40*6
40.4
39.5
41*0
40.2
1957*.
1958.*
1959*.
40.4
38.8
40.1
40*4
40.3
38.7
40.4
40*2
40*2
38.6
40.6
39.8
38.7
40.5
I960..
1961..
1962.*
40.5
39.1
39.9
40.1
39.3
40.3
39.9
39.3
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.7
40.0
39.7
4C.4
39.8
40.4
1963*.
1964*.
1965..
40.3
40.0
41.1
40.2
40.5
41*2
40.4
40.6
41.4
40.2
40.6
41.0
40*5
4C.5
40.7
41.2
40*8
1966*.
1967..
41.4
41.0
41.6
41.6
40.5
41.5
40.5
41.5
40*3
40.6
41.0
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
11(1
AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS i MANUFACTURING (HOURS)
1945.*
1946..
1947.*
39.7
Sept
""
38.7
45*2
2.
39*9
40*4
41.4
40.3
40.4
41.1
40.2
40.6
41*1
40*9
40.1
39.1
41.1
39.8
39.5
40.7
39.8
39.5
40.9
39.8
39.1
41.1
40.6
40.2
40.6
40.3
40.5
40.5
40. 4
40.1
41.1
40.1
39.6
39.5
4C.7
40.3
39.7
40.5
40.0
40*3
39.9
39.1
40.5
39.9
39.2
40.2
39.8
39.4
40.3
39*9
39.9
40.0
40.5
39.6
40.0
40.7
40*5
39.1
7.0
1948..
1949*.
1950*.
5.6
6*5
4.5
4.3
19S1..
1952*.
1953*.
6*4
5.3
5.5
6.2
5.3
5.7
6.0
5.0
5.7
6*0
5.0
5.7
1954.*
3.4
4.0
3.1
3*9
3.1
3.7
3.2
3.6
3.3
3.6
3.5
I960..
1961*.
1962..
4.2
3.9
4*3
4.1
3.7
4.2
3.7
4*4
4*1
3.6
4.2
4.2
1963..
1964..
1965*.
3.8
3*8
4.0
3.9
4*0
4.1
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.1
1966..
1967..
4.9
4.6
5.0
4.3
5.2
4.1
44.6
40.0
40*4
40.4
39*5
39*3
40.2
3«,8
40.9
40*3
39*2
39*7
40.4
41.0
39.7
40.6
41*1
39.6
40.9
40.6
41.0
40..9
40..3
40,.9
39.6
40.9
40.5
40.1
41.0
40.3
40*0
40*9
39.5
40.5
40.6
40*6
39,,5
40..7
40,, 3
40.1
39.3
39.5
40.1
39.1
39.8
39.9
39.6
40. 3
40*2
39.3
40.6
40.4
41.1
39.7
39.7
39*6
40,3
42.3
40.3
40*2
40.0
39*2
40.9
40*4
40.6
40.3
39.6
40*6
40.3
41.2
40.3
43*4
40*3
40.6
40.4
39*7
39.3
40.0
39.1
40.5
41.0
40*4
41*1
39*8
39.9
40.9
40.5
40.7
40.7
40.5
39.6
40.7
40.4
40,,0
38,,8
40 ,,5
39.8
39.4
40.2
38.3
40.3
39,,9
39,,7
40*5
39.6
39.9
40*2
40.2
39.2
40.2
40.5
40*3
40.4
40.3
40.4
41*2
40*4
40.5
40.6
40,8
41.1
40.7
41*0
40.4
40.7
41.2
41*5
40.6
41,5
41.3
40.4
40*4
40*8
40.6
40.5
40.7
40.4
40*7
40*8
41.1
41*1
40*9
41*2
41.3
40.6
41*2
41.4
41.4
4C.4
41.3
40*5
41.4
40.7
41.3
40.8
41.3
40.7
41.2
40.7
40.9
40.7
EMPLOYEES)
40*2
40*7
39.1
39.7
40.0
39.1
40.4
40.9
41.3
41.1
4C.7
39.8
39.2
40*2
39.7
39*6
41.4
40.6
AVERAGE
7.0
6*3
5.9
5.9
5.9
6*2
6.0
5*8
5*6
5.4
5.4
5.3
6.2
5.6
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8
5.3
4*4
5*2
5.0
S.8
3.9
4.5
5.6
4.4
9.1
5.5
4.9
5.0
Annual
40*4
38. 7
7*0
9*4
6.9
6*9
H
IV Q
39*0
39*8
40*3
10.3
6*8
~~r
40.1
40.5
40.8
41.1
3.3
1957.*
1958..
1959..
43.3
40.6
40.7
39.4
39.6
40.6
ACCESSION RATEi MANUFACTURING ( PER 100
1945..
1946.*
1947..
40*5
41.7
40.9
II! Q
AVERAGE
40*5
40.5
40.0
j
10.4
6.5
8.2
6.4
7.3
8.1
6.0
6.9
5.8
7.7
8.2
6*3
5.3
4.3
6*1
4.8
4.5
5.4
5.4
4.3
5.3
|0.0
5.0
5.3
4.9
4.4
5.9
4.5
4.9
5.9
4*1
5*0
5*8
3.7
5*3
5.4
3.7
5*0
5*8
3.7
6*2
5.2
5*6
5*6
5.0
5.3
4*6
5.7
4.5
5.1
5.7
3.7
5.4
5.4
4*8
3.5
3.5
3.6
4*0
4.6
4*3
3.4
4.3
3.3
4.5
4«2
3.5
4.4
4.1
4.3
4*5
4.4
3.6
4*4
4.2
3.7
3*7
3.9
3.9
3.3
3.9
3.3
4.0
3.3
3.9
3.1
3*9
3*1
4*2
3.9
3*1
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.9
3*2
4*0
3*5
3.6
4.3
3.8
4.2
4.2
3.7
4.0
4.0
3.6
4*0
4.2
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.5
4.3
3.9
3.6
4.3
3.8
3.6
4*1
3.8
4*0
4.0
4.2
3.7
4.1
4*1
3*8
4.0
4.1
3.6
4.2
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.1
4.0
4*1
3.8
3.9
4*1
3*8
4.0
4*3
3.9
4.0
4.1
3.8
4.0
4.3
3.9
3*9
4.9
3.9
3.9
4.4
3,6
4.0
4.8
4*0
4*1
4.9
3.8
3.9
4*1
3*9
4*0
4.12
3.9
4.0
4.3
3.8
4*0
4.7
3.9
4.0
4.3
5.0
4.2
5.1
4.6
5*1
4*5
4.7
4.4
5.1
4.4
5.0
4.3
4.9
4.5
4.8
4.5
4*6
4*4
5.0
4.3
5.L
4.4
4.9
4.4
4*8
4.5
5.0
4.4
5*2
5.1
5.2
1956*.
Note: See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
(OCTOBER 1969)
102
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
[added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
3.
1945*.
14.
96.
1947*.
07
.
Api.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
II Q
1 Q
LAYOFF RATEt MANUFACTURING ( PER 100 EMPLOYEES)
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
09
.
09
.
1.0
14
.
2*0
2.1
12.1
40
.
27
.
1*2
2.3
10
.
1*0
1.5
1*2
1*0
08
.
20
.
10
.
1.5
16
.
1.3
6.1
09
.
1.2
2*2
1*1
1.0
2.6
14
.
1.1
14.
98.
14.
99.
15.
90.
2*8
19
.
19
.
1,7
1*4
1.2
1.1
06
.
08
.
10
.
1.1
1.2
21
.
1.2
29
.
1.8
3.3
1.2
2*7
09
.
2.6
1.2
1.6
29
.
1.3
1951*.
1952..
1953*.
10
.
1.5
09
.
10
.
15
.
10
.
10
.
14
.
10
.
1*5
10
.
1*3
12
.
1.5
1.2
3*1
1.5
1*3
16
.
1*0
20
.
09
.
22
.
08
.
24
.
1*5
10
.
2.5
10
.
1.5
10
.
1.2
14
.
1.1
1.8
1.8
17
.
1.7
09
.
24
.
14
.
1.4
1.5
1954*.
1955..
15.
96.
29
.
1.5
2*7
2.8
26
.
2*3
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.1
19
.
1.7
1*8
28
.
1.5
1.9
2.5
1*5
19
.
2*1
1.6
17
.
1.8
1.4
1.6
23
.
1.5
1.8
15.
97.
1958..
15.
99.
1*5
34
.
1*7
3*3
1.5
3*4
17
.
3*3
21
.
30
.
17
.
24
.
1*8
2.5
2*1
2.3
24
.
2.1
27
.
21
.
2*9
19
.
27
.
19
.
16
.
34
.
17
.
1*8
29
.
17
.
2.1
23
.
20
.
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.1
26
.
20
.
I6.
90.
1961**
1962.*
1.5
27
.
18
.
19
.
3*0
2*0
2.3
2.5
17
.
24
.
2.1
1.6
2*3
2*2
20
.
2.5
2*3
20
.
24
.
2.2
2.C
26
.
20
.
24
.
24
.
22
.
20
.
26
.
1*8
20
.
27
.
19
.
2*0
2*8
2*0
1*9
19
.
27
.
1*8
24
.
22
.
19
.
2.5
2.1
2.1
27
.
19
.
2*0
24
.
2.2
20
.
16.
93.
16.
94.
16.
95.
.
9
.
8
18
.
18
.
19
.
1*8
18
.
16
.
1*8
1*7
.
7
.
6
1.7
1.7
20
.
1.5
19
.
1.6
18
.
17
.
.
8
.
5
.
4
1*7
1*6
14
.
19
.
1*6
14
.
1.8
1*6
14
.
19
.
1*6
1.5
.
8
*6
.
4
1.8
1.7
14
.
16.
96.
1967.*
.
2
.
3
11
.
1.5
17
.
1.5
1*4
.
4
14
.
1.3
13
.
1.3
.
2
1*2
1.1
1*5
1.2
1*4
1.2
1*3
.
2
.
2
1.2
1.4
1*5
41.
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRI CULTURAL PAYROLLSi ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY
(THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE
1945*. 41,780 41,784 41*656 41*341 41,125 40,912 4C,623 40,320 38,387 38*470 38*621 39,022
1 4 . 39,729 39,215 40,214 40,811 41,260 41,568 41*968 42,490 42,798 43*008 43,263 43,333
96.
1 4 . 43,493 43,588 43,639 43,478 43,561 43,688 43,667 43,851 44, €62 44*272 44,345 44,557
97.
41,740
39,719
43,573
41,126
41*213
43*576
39,777
42,419
43,860
38,771
43*201
44,391
40*353
41*638
43,850
1 4 . 44,658 44,541 44,662 44,342 44*659 44,S25 45,124 45,040 45,143 45*087 45,094 45*051
98.
1949*. 44,622 44,445 44,214 44*058 43*848 43*626 43,457 43,506 43,671 42*811 43,163 43,525
1 5 . 43,467 43,192 43,871 44,276 4 , 0 44*995 45,387 46,064 46,298 46,522 46,652 46,784
90.
467
44*620
44,427
43,310
44*642
43*S44
44*626
45,102
43,545
45,916
45,077
43,166
46,653
44*860
43*746
45,176
1951*. 47,267 47,518 47,725 47,890 47,829 47,951 47,951 47,815 4 , 7 47*815 48,049 48,188
770
1952.. 48,268 48,456 48,473 48,494 48,538 48,142 47,986 48,705 49,146 49*451 49,719 49,993
1953*. 50,084 50«32C 50,398 5C»418 50,394 50,416 50,413 50,304 50,173 50,115 49*845 49,673
47*503
48,399
50,267
47*«90
48*391
50*409
47,845
48,612
50,297
48,017
49,721
49*878
47,814
48*781
50,213
1 5 . 49,380 49 , 30049,095 49,008 48,856 48,810 48,719 48,691 48,750 48*858 49,129 49,277
94.
1955*. 49,379 49,548 49,864 50*123 50,440 50*739 50,864 50,957 51,114 51*334 51*520 31,758
1956.. 51,921 52*132 52,180 52,325 52,418 52,498 51,824 52,480 52,454 52,715 52*766 52,914
49,258
49,597
52,078
48,891
50*434
52*414
48,720
50,978
52,253
49,088
51,537
52,798
48,989
50,637
52,386
1957*. 52,862 53,048 53,124 53*080 53,054 53.C01 53,003 53,021 52,814 52,709 52,497 52,312
1958.. 52,052 51,489 51,156 50*880 50,620 50,650 50,944 51*156 51,428 51*407 51,861 52,014
1 5 . 52,455 52,605 52,882 53*221 53,477 53,645 53,715 53,268 53,329 53*235 53,544 94,075
99.
53,011 53,045
51, 566 50*850
52,647 53*448
52,946
51,176
53*436
52,506
51,761
53,618
52,877
51,338
53*287
,4
1960*. 54,236 54,453 54,377 5 4 , 6 0 54,427 54,333 54,254 54,246 54,143 54*032 53,886 93,616
1 6 . 53,571 53,416 53,513 53, ,540 53,732 53,970 54,109 54,281 54,317 54*414 5 , 6 54,794
91.
469
1962*. 54,745 55,052 55,181 55,,457 55,576 55,625 55,719 55,812 55,933 55,954 55,984 95,969
54,355
53*500
54,993
54,467
53,747
55,553
54,214
54,236
55,821
53,845
54,626
55,969
54,220
54,027
55,564
1963*. 55,975 56,094 56,222 56*444 56,595 56,624 56,766 56,854 57,C33 57,198 57,176 57,297
1 6 . 57,331 57,682 57,735 57,f903 58,049 58*175 58,378 58,544 58,850 58*723 59*128 59,355
94.
1 6 . 59,471 59,760 59,975 60 a 50 60,450 60*648 60,922 61,142 61,396 61*599 61,897 62*232
95.
56,097
59^735
56,554
58*042
60*416
56*684
58,591
61,153
57,224
59*069
61*909
56*690
58,321
60*804
1 6 . 62,475 62,825 63,185 63, ,402 63,649 64,058 64,216 64,379 64,498 64*701 64,897 65*094
96.
1 6 . 65,342 65,379 65,459 65,,469 65,563 65,747 65,799 66,016 66,003 66*083 66*600 66,734
97.
62,828
65,393
63,703
65,593
64,364
65,939
64,897
66,472
63*948
65*650
Note;
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page
iii.
(OCTOBER 1969)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§> (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
45* AVERAGE: WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATEI
1
Sept.
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
STATE PROGRAMS
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
(PERCENT)
•••
..
.
..
.
14.
97.
..
.
*•"*
1948*.
14.•
99
1950**
6.2
60
.
5.8
1951**
1952..
1953*.
29
.
3.2
26
.
2*7
3.1
2.5
2.5
3.1
2*5
2.6
3*0
2.5
2.8
30
.
2*4
29
.
3*0
24
.
30
.
36
.
2.5
3.2
3.3
2.7
34
.
2*6
29
.
1954..
1955*.
1956**
42
.
4.1
3*8
36
.
3*4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
15.
97.
1958*.
1959*.
3.5
5*5
I960*.
1961*.
16.
92.
6*2
6.3
6*3
5*9
5*6
5.3
5.3
5.2
1963*.
16.
94.
1965*.
48
.
40
.
3*3
3*9
3.3
3*9
3.2
3*8
3.1
3*8
3*0
3.7
29
.
3.6
3.0
1966*.
1967*.
26
.
2.3
2*6
2*4
2*3
2.1
2*1
2.2
24
.
6*6
3*4
2.5
32
.
3.3
24
.
38
.
47
.
60
.
!i*8
!>.0
7.0
3.8
7.1
3.3
6.2
46
.
32
.
2*5
4*1
27
.
3.1
2.5
21.8
30
.
2.4
3.2
3.2
2.7
3.3
2.5
3.7
5.0
29
.
2*8
51.4
3*5
3*4
3*3
39
.
5*4
5*0
3*3
3.
)S
3.5
3*4
5.2
3*5
34
.
4*8
46.
3.3
3.4
3.5
4*8
5*6
5*5
5*3
5.3
448
35
.
6*0
4*6
3). 3
10
.
2.7
3*6
65
.
4.0
4.8
56
.
5.0
3*8
6*3
43
.
5.
5*0
5*1
6*3
4*8
43
.
6*3
45
.
43
.
5.6
3>*9
5*1
5*2
4*3
6.1
5.0
4,6
5*0
5*5
43
.
3*5
3.0
3*
2.
3*4
27
.
34
.
2*6
41
.
344
2.6
46
.
39
.
3*3
4*2
3*8
30
.
42
.
3.5
30
.
4*1
34
.
2*6
43
.
3.6
3.0
24
.
26
.
2.
2*
2*0
2*3
2*1
2.3
2*3
2.2
2*5
24
.
2,1
2*6
2.3
2.6
2.1
2*3
2*3
2*5
3.5
4«3
INDEX OF HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING IN NEWSPAPERS
(1957=59-100) 2
AVERAGE
1945*.
14.*
96
1947.*
202
154
133
202
143
134
204
152
131
204
151
126
189
130
121
191
145
117
211
153
115
189
148
123
165
144
141
162
143
135
167
141
130
161
137
125
203
150
133
195
142
121
188
148
126
163
140
130
187
145
128
14.
98.
1949**
1950*.
120
87
63
117
75
64
110
74
66
110
70
68
110
70
70
109
66
74
108
63
80
109
62
92
115
60
93
106
58
100
99
55
98
89
54
95
116
79
64
110
69
71
111
62
88
98
56
98
108
66
80
1951*.
1952**
1953..
116
129
133
116
125
135
121
120
141
117
122
139
121
121
134
114
121
129
116
122
123
118
123
118
117
132
113
120
136
103
122
138
95
120
138
86
118
125
136
117
121
134
117
126
118
121
137
95
118
127
121
1954*.
1955*.
1956*.
84
90
128
80
93
134
78
99
130
77
101
132
75
105
132
78
109
128
77
113
124
77
120
126
75
120
124
76
123
132
82
129
130
84
134
126
81
94
131
77
105
131
76
118
125
81
129
129
79
111
129
1957..
1958**
1959**
132
81
93
126
75
99
124
71
104
119
70
111
118
70
111
111
72
116
114
76
118
109
77
115
10T
61
116
99
84
112
90
88
115
67
94
117
127
76
99
116
71
113
110
78
116
92
89
115
111
78
111
I960*.
1961..
1962..
117
87
113
117
86
113
113
88
113
111
88
112
109
91
116
107
95
113
102
95
112
101
99
111
9T
100
109
94
107
108
92
110
107
89
109
107
116
87
113
109
91
114
100
98
111
92
109
107
104
96
111
1963..
1964*.
16.
95.
108
116
137
108
115
143
109
117
146
109
121
146
108
122
152
108
127
155
111
129
153
109
128
158
110
130
169
112
130
170
111
134
180
113
134
184
108
116
142
108
123
151
110
129
159
112
133
178
110
125
157
1966*.
1967*.
186
191
190
189
200
184
193
185
196
184
197
184
199
181
196
187
194
181
194
187
193
187
192
168
192
188
195
184
196
185
193
187
194
186
series contains no revisions.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
104
(OCTOBER 1969)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§> (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
CHANGE IN TOTAL U.S. MONEY SUPPLY (DEMAND
(ANN. RATEI PERCENT)
Sept.
Oct.
DEPOSITS PLUS
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
CURRENCY)
III Q
IV Q
Annual
85.
PERCENT
$947.*
*..
2.16
6.60
8.76
6.48
4*32
1*08
4.32
4*32
-1*08
4.20
-2.16
• ••
***
6*52
1948*.
1949*.
1950*.
3*24
-3.24
3*24
-2*16
0.00
6*48
-6*36
0.00
4*32
-3.24
1.08
7.44
-2*16
2.16
5.28
-1.08
-2.16
4.20
2.16
-1.08
5*28
1.08
-2.16
4*20
-1*08
-1.08
2.04
-1*08
0.00
5.16
-3.24
1*08
2.04
-3.24
2*16
3*12
-1*76
-1*08
4.68
-2.16
0*36
5*64
0.72
-1.44
3.84
-2.52
1.08
3.44
-1*43
-0.27
4.40
1951*.
1952.*
1953..
5.16
3.96
-0*96
4.08
4.92
0*96
5*16
1.92
5.64
2*04
2.88
2.76
4*08
3*84
1*92
4*08
4*80
0*00
5.04
2.88
0*96
5.04
3.84
0.96
8.04
6.72
-0*96
6.00
2.68
0,96
9.96
3.84
0.00
6.84
2.8*
0.96
4.80
3*60
1*88
3.40
3*64
1*56
6.04
4.48
0.32
7.60
3.20
0.64
5.46
3.78
1.10
1954*.
1955.*
1956*.
1.92
6.36
2.64
0*96
8.16
0.00
0*96
-2.64
1.80
-5*52
2*64
2.64
10*32
6*24
-1.80
1*80
-1.80
1*80
3.72
3.60
0*00
3.72
0.00
-2.64
1*80
1.80
4*44
5*52
1*60
0*84
5.52
-2*64
2*64
1.80
2.64
2.64
1*28
3*96
1*48
2*20
2*36
0*88
3.08
1*80
0.60
4*28
0.60
2.04
2.71
2*18
1.25
1957.*
1958*.
1959*.
0.00
-3.48
4.20
-0*84
6.24
3.36
0.84
2.64
4.20
0.00
4.44
1.68
0.84
4.32
4.20
-0*84
7.80
1.68
0*84
0.00
5.88
0*84
6.12
-4.20
-2.64
3.48
-2.52
-2*64
9*16
-3*36
-1.80
6.84
-1.68
-3.48
1.68
-6.72
0*00
1*80
3.92
0*00
5.52
2.52
-0.32
3*20
-0.28
-2*64
4.56
-3*92
-0.74
3.77
0.56
I960..
1961**
1962. *
-1.68
0.84
0*84
-3.36
4.20
2.52
-3*36
2.52
1.68
-0.84
2.52
2*52
-4.32
3*36
-1.68
-1.68
2.52
0.84
2.52
0.00
-0.84
4.32
2.52
-0*84
1.68
5*04
-1*68
0*00
3.36
4.92
-2.52
5.88
4.08
2*92
3.36
4.08
^2^80
2*52
1.68
-2.28
2.80
0.56
2.84
2.52
-1.12
0.00
4.20
4.36
-0.56
3.01
1*37
1963*,
1964*.
1965*.
4.92
3.96
2.28
4.92
2.40
3.00
1.56
2.40
3.00
4.08
3.12
3.00
3.96
4.68
0.72
4*80
3.84
6.00
4*80
7.68
5.16
1*56
5*40
5.16
2*40
5.23
6.60
6*36
3.84
8.76
7.92
4.56
4.32
-2*40
1.56
6.48
3*80
2*92
2*76
4*28
3*88
3*24
2.92
6.12
5*64
3.96
3,32
6*52
3.74
4*06
4*54
8.64
1966.*
1967. . -1.44
5.04
11.28
5.04
9.72
9.24
-3.48
-2.16
11.76
1.44
11.04
-6.36
1C.20
2.16
8.76
4.9Z
5*40
-2.76
5*40
-0*72
5*28
2.16
3.36
6*24
6.52
2*84
6*44
0*24
8*12
-0*44
4*68
2.22
6.44
2.20
***
...
...
AVERAGE
98.
PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL U.S. MONEY SUPPLY (DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS
CURRENCY) AND COMMERCIAL BANK TIME DEPOSITS (ANN. RATEt PERCENT)
.. *
3.24
.**
0.32
• *.
•**
...
AVERAGE
1947.*
..
.
3*36
5.88
7*56
5.76
4.08
1*68
6.60
5.76
1*68
4*92
0.00
**.
5*80
1948..
1949..
1950*.
3.24
-1.6B
2*40
0.00
0*00
6*48
-4.60
0*00
3*24
-2.40
1.68
6*48
-1*68
2.40
5.64
0.00
-0.84
3.24
1.68
-0.84
3*12
1.68
-1.68
2.40
-C.84
-0.84
0*84
-0.84
0.00
3*12
-1*68
0.84
2.40
-2.40
1.68
3.12
-0*52
-0.56
4*04
-1.36
1*08
5*12
0.84
-1.12
2*12
-1.64
0*84
2*88
-0.67
0*06
3.54
1951*.
1952*.
1953*.
3*96
4.44
1.44
2*40
6.00
2.16
3*96
3.00
6.36
2*28
3.72
3.48
3.84
4.44
3.48
3.84
5.16
1*44
6.12
3.60
2.76
5.40
5.04
2.76
8.40
7.20
1.44
5.28
3.60
3.48
9*12
5.76
2.04
6.72
3.60
2.76
3.44
4*48
3*32
3.32
4*44
2*80
6.64
5*28
2*32
7.04
4.32
2.76
5.11
4.63
2.80
1954*.
11955*.
1956..
3*48
6.00
1*32
3.48
7.32
0.00
3.48
-1.32
2*64
-0.72
3.24
3*24
10.32
4.56
-0.60
3.36
0.00
3.24
6.12
3.24
1.32
6.12
0.00
0*00
2*04
3.24
5.16
9*40
1.92
1.32
4*68
-0.60
3.24
2.04
2.64
2.32
3.48
4*00
1.32
4*32
2*60
1.96
4.76
2*16
2.16
4.04
1*32
2.36
4.15
2.52
1.95
1957*.
1958*.
1959**
4.44
-1.20
6.36
2.52
14.28
2.28
4.44
9.84
4*08
1*92
9.12
2.88
3*72
7.80
3.48
1.20
10*80
3.48
3.72
4.80
4.56
3.12
7.68
-2.28
0.60
3*48
-1*08
1*20
4.08
-2*28
1.20
6.48
-1.20
0.00
2.28
-3.96
3*80
7*64
4*24
2*28
9.24
3*28
2*48
5*32
0*40
0.80
4*28
-2.48
2.34
6.62
1.36
I960**
1961**
1962..
-2.28
4.44
7.92
-4.08
1O.O8
11.52
-1.68
5.04
9.36
1.20
5.52
7.68
-2.28
7.68
2.52
1.68
6.60
6.12
6.36
5.40
5.04
8.64
6.00
4.08
5.64
7.56
4.56
4.56
6.36
9*48
2488
7.44
8.40
6.24
4.60
10.32
-2.68
6*52
9*60
0.20
6*60
5.44
6.88
6.32
4.56
4.56
6*20
9.40
2.24
6.41
7.25
1963..
8.76
1964. . 7.68
1965*. 10.08
9.24
6*24
10*44
6.24
4.92
6*96
8.64
5*76
7*©0
6.72
7.92
5*76
8.04
7.92
9.36
8*52
8.76
9.24
6*96
7.80
9.60
6*96
8,16
10*32
9.24
8.52
12.96
11.40
8.88
8.88
3.60
7.56
9.24
6.08
6.28
9*16
7*80
7*20
7.64
7.48
8.24
9.72
S.08
8.32
10.36
7*86
7.51
9.22
1966..
1967**
6*48
16.68
7.20
12*84
13*20
6.0)0
4.80
13.32
6.24
13.56
3.36
13.44
3.00
10.20
5.16
9.12
-2.52
1.68
-0.72
6*28
6.96
7.32
7.36
12.64
8.08
10*96
3.64
10.92
1.24
7.76
5.13
10.57
Note:
8*40
8.40
4*68
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
(OCTOBER 1969)
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Fending Guide" for tho latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follews the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or fron date which have noUieen seasonally adjusted1
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
616.
Feb,
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
I Q
11 Q
Quarterly
-p
ill Q
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OBLIGATIONS I N C U R R E O i TOTAL EXCLUDING M I L I T A R Y ASSISTANCE
1
"
IV Q
Annual
TOTAL
(MILLION DOLLARS)
. »»
...
.**
*« .
...
• **
1947..
1948. .
1949..
1950. *
1951**
1952. 4
1953..
•* .
...
...
2,190
2,247
2,298
1,180
...
7,418
5,725
1954..
1955..
1956..
2,120
2,442
3,376
2,952
2,812
3,909
1,899
2,613
4,248
2,568
3,180
3,515
2,837
2,449
3,240
2,674
2,366
4,179
2,945
2,379
3,447
2,602
1,145
4,588
3,378
3,522
3,358
3,701
2,376
3,145
2,817
2,591
3,430
3,014
3,254
3,349
6,971
7,867
10,633
8*279
7,99$
10,934
ft,925
7*046
11,393
0,532
8,221
9,924
33,707
31,129
42,864
1957..
1958.*
1959..
3,325
3,720
3,538
3,594
3,334
3,601
3,254
4,091
3,739
3,543
4,078
3,620
3,020
4,251
3,569
2,745
4,279
3,663
3,017
3,818
3,729
2,915
3,355
3,263
3*184
3,541
3,906
2,855
4,596
3,802
3,499
3,481
3,608
3,406
3,816
3,160
10,173
11,145
10,876
9,308
12*608
11,052
9,116
10,714
10,898
9,760
11,893
10,570
38,357
46,360
43,398
I960..
1961..
1962..
3,234
3,641
4,434
3,439
4,065
4,086
3,368
3,537
4,421
3,362
3,381
4,477
3,677
3,727
3,999
3,771
3,893
4,082
5,305
3,784
4,517
3,824
5,344
4,385
3,999
4,874
3,892
3,357
4,296
4,535
4,109
4,121
4,920
3,583
4,653
4*140
10,041
11,243
12,941
10,810
11,001
12,558
13,128
14,002
12,794
11*049
13,070
13,595
45,02,8
49,316
51,888
1963..
1964..
1965*.
4,632
4,351
4*278
4,137
5,317
3,839
4,233
4,133
4,624
4,078
4,544
4,593
4,507
4,818
4,630
4, 481
4,349
4,520
4,349
4,677
4,258
4,560
4,237
5,223
4,160
4,409
5,276
5,112
3,773
4,962
4,093
4,228
4,896
4,371
5,325
5,669
13,002
13,801
12,741
13,066
13,711
13,743
13,089
13*319
14,757
*3,576
13,326
X5,527
52,733
54,157
56,768
1966*.
1967..
5,100
6,518
5,179
6,595
5,879
6,343
6,444
6,211
5,447
7,732
7,084
6,691
4,998
5,928
7,215
7,003
6,579
7,479
6,059
7,449
5,989
6,565
6,023
6,331
16,156
19,456
18,975
20,634
18,792
20,410
i8,071
20,345
71,996
81,045
2,689
621.
2,579
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OBLIGATIONS INCURRED t PROCUREMENT
( M I L L I O N DOLLARS)
TOTAL
...
...
...
...
...
...
470
172
200
206
304
- 518
** .
*..
842
-8
...
..
.
...
1954..
1955..
1956..
34
320
1,278
740
625
781
14
514
1,739
386
861
1,118
758
405
1,158
1,067
305
1,767
1,064
474
1,735
490
- 872
2.424
1,370
1,489
1,250
1,651
324
1,051
660
466
Itl96
1,560
1,531
1,291
788
1,459
3,798
2,211
1*571
4,043
2,924
1,091
5*409
3,891
2*321
3,538
9*814
6,442
16,788
1957..
1958..
1959*.
1,140
1,637
1,330
1,407
1,232
1,362
1,117
1,669
1,371
,347
,619
,398
802
2,042
1,381
744
1,580
1,425
707
1,404
1,202
827
891
870
1,265
1,121
1,319
786
2,291
1,S17
1,418
1,238
1,124
1,327
1,545
929
3,664
4,538
4,063
2,893
5,241
4,204
2,799
3,416
3*391
3,531
5*074
3*570
12,887
18,269
15,228
I960.*
1961*.
1962.*
937
1,277
1,758
1,104
1,555
1,228
1,020
1,230
1,410
983
,047
i791
1,488
1,220
1,039
1,397
1,390
1,311
2,2C4
1,181
1,657
1,256
2,278
1,395
1,256
1,933
1,040
945
1,354
It 675
1*468
1,286
1*787
1,096
1,773
1,205
3,061
4,062
4,396
3,968
3,657
4,141
4,716
5,392
4,092
3,509
4,413
4*667
15,154
17,524
17,296
1963..
1964..
1965..
1,586
1,075
1,005
1,206
1,843
700
1,366
1,237
1,355
1,215
1,389
1,444
1,358
1,910
1,402
1,363
1,C79
1,254
1,132
1,494
1,128
1,700
803
1,741
1,207
1,141
1,732
2,010
889
1,733
It 094
1,089
1,212
1,273
1,747
1,882
4,158
4,155
3,060
3»936
4,378
4,100
4,039
3,438
4*601
4,377
3,725
4,827
16,510
15,696
16*588
1966..
1967*.
1,639
2,296
1,736
2,140
1,904
1,903
2,109
1,754
1,620
2,480
2,«15
2,290
1,753
1,633
2,251
1,925
1,866
2,958
1,931
2,735
1,723
2,173
1,937
1,846
5,279
6,339
6,144
6,524
5,870
6,516
5,591
6,754
22,864
26,133
Noto: These series contain no revisions.
(OCTOBER 1969)
106
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
Section A—NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts summarize
national economic activity. Gross national product (GNP) is
the market value of all goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy. There are two major measures of income:
national income, which is total income earned from the
production of goods and services; and personal income, which
is total income received by persons from all sources. Section
A qf Business Conditions Digest contains time series which
mejasure these three major aggregates and many of their
major components. All data are seasonally adjusted by the
source agency, which is the U.S. Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics. Beginning with 1960, data for
Alaska and Hawaii are included in these series.
200. Gross National Product in Current Dollars
GNP is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate
economic output. It represents the market value of the total
outjput of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy,
before deduction of depreciation charges and other allowances
fori business and institutional consumption of durable capital
goods. Output is measured by summing the expenditures
involved in obtaining final goods and services by the ultimate
investors or consumers. Thus, GNP is the total of personal
consumption expenditures (series 230), gross private domes tic
investment (series 240), net exports of goods and services
(series 250), and government purchases of goods and services
(series 260).
GNP measures the output resulting from the labor and
property supplied by the Nation's residents. Although these
factors of production are usually located in this country, GNP
also includes profits repatriated from foreign branches of U.S.
businesses, earnings of American employees of foreign governments and international agencies stationed in the United States,
and interest and dividends paid by foreigners to Americans, and
excludes profits repatriated from U.S. branches of foreign
businesses and interest and dividends paid by Americans to
foreigners.
Hundreds of economic series are used in deriving the GNP
estimates. These series are evaluated and adjusted and then
corjabined to form the components upon which GNP is based.
205. Gross National Product in 1958 Dollars
GNP (as described in series 200) is also expressed in
constant (1958) dollars. This eliminates the effects of price
changes and results in a series which measures the physical
volume of output. The constant-dollar GNP series is derived
by | dividing components of the seasonally adjusted currentdollar series by appropriate price indexes, in as fine a breakdown as possible, and then summing them to the constant-dollar
total. Several hundred seasonally adjusted price indexes, with
1958 as the base year, are used directly or are combined into
coihposites to deflate the various components.
21Q. Implicit Price Deflator, Gross National Product
The implicit price deflator is obtained by dividing the
seasonally adjusted cur rent-dollar GNP data (series 200) by
the corresponding seasonally adjusted constant-dollar GNP
data (series 205). The deflator measures the average price
of a given year's output in relation to what the same collection
of goods and services would have cost in 1958. This series is
not actually used to deflate GNP, but it summarizes the total
effect of the various price indexes which are used.
215. Per Capita Gross National Product in Current Dollars
217. Per Capita Gross National Product in 1958 Dollars
Per capita GNP is computed by dividing GNP, in both current
dollars (series 200) and 1958 dollars (series 205), by the total
U.S. population. The population data used are for the total
population, including Armed Forces overseas. Residents of
the 50 States and the District of Columbia are included; but
residents of Puerto Rico, residents of the outlying areas under
U.S. sovereignty or jurisdiction, and other American citizens
living overseas are not. Members of the Armed Forces stationed in foreign countries and in the outlying areas are included, although dependents living with them are not.
Population estimates for the first of each month are released
monthly by the Bureau of the Census. A mid-quarter population
estimate is obtained by averaging the estimates for the beginning
of the second and third months of a given quarter. That average
is then divided into the GNP data for that quarter.
220. National Income
National income is the aggregate earnings of labor and
property arising from the current production of goods and
services by the Nation's economy. These earnings are
recorded in the forms in which they accrue to residents of the
Nation, including taxes on the earnings. National income is
the sum of five major components: Compensation of employees
(series 280), proprietors' income (series 282), rental income
of persons (series 284), corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment (series 286), and net interest (series
288).
National income measures total output in terms of payments
to the factors of production. It differs from GNP (series 200)
in that it excludes depreciation and other capital consumption
allowances, indirect taxes (e.g., sales and excise taxes),
business transfer payments, and the current surplus of
government enterprises, and includes subsidies. Components of
personal income (series 222) and of corporate profits are
used in deriving the national income estimates.
222. Personal Income
Personal income measures the income received by per sons,
including transfers from government and business but excluding
transfers amongpersons. Individuals, owners of unincorporated
enterprises, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and
private health and welfare funds are all considered" "persons"
for this series. Personal income is the total of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income (series
282), rental income of persons (series 284), dividends, personal
interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance.
Most of the income is in
monetary form but there are exceptions, such as the net rent
of owner-occupied homes, the value of food produced and
consumed on farms, and services furnished without payment
by financial intermediaries.
107
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
Wage and salary disbursements consists of both the monetary
payment to employees (including tips, commissions, bonuses,
etc.) and payments in kind, such as food or housing, which
represent income to the employee. Wage and salary disbursements differs from wages and salaries, as defined under
compensation of employees (series 280), by including retroactive wages when paid rather than when earned.
Other labor income consists of employer contributions to
private pension, health, unemployment, and welfare funds;
compensation for injuries; directors' fees; pay of the military
reserve; and several minor items.
Proprietors' income (series 282) and rental income of persons (series 284) are described as separate series.
Dividends consists of the cash dividend disbursements by
corporations to stockholders who are U,S, residents.
Personal interest income measures the total monetary and
imputed interest accruing to persons who are U.S. residents. It
is the sum of net interest (series 288), total interest payments
by consumers, and net interest payments by government
(including government enterprises).
Transfer payments consists of income received by persons
from government and business for which no services are
currently rendered. Government transfer payments include
payments under social security (including medicare), State
unemployment insurance, railroad retirement and unemployment insurance, and government retirement programs;
veterans' benefits (including veterans'life insurance proceeds);
direct relief; payments to nonprofit institutions other than for
work done under research and development contracts; and
several minor items. Business transfer payments consist of
corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions, consumer bad debts, and
several minor items.
Personal contributions for social insurance is made up of
payments by employees, by self-employed persons, and by
persons participating in medicare programs. The programs
included are social security, Federal and State unemployment
insurance, railroad retirement and unemployment insurance,
government retirement, and several minor social insurance
programs.
224. Disposable Personal Income in Current Dollars
225TTMJposabii^PersQnal Income in 1958 Dollars
Disposable personal income (series 224) measures that
portion of total personal income (series 222) which is available
for spending or saving. Thus, it is equal to personal income
less personal tax and nontax payments to general government.
Personal tax and nontax payments are the payments by individuals to government which are not deductible as expenses
of business operations. The primary component taxes are
income taxes, property taxes, death and gift taxes, and motor
vehicle licenses.
Nontaxes include passport fees, fines,
donations, penalties, and tuition and hospital fees paid to
schools and hospitals operated by State and local governments.
Tax refunds are deducted from payments at the time of refund.
Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (series 225) is
obtained by deflating the current-dollar series by the implicit
price deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
108
226. Per Capita Disposable Personal Income in Currant
Dollars
227. Per Capita Disposable Personal Income in 1958 Dollars
Per capita disposable personal income is computed by
dividing disposable personal income, in both current dollars
(series 224) and 1958 dollars (series 225), by the total U.S.
population. The population data, which include Armed Forces
overseas, are the same as described in series 215 and 217.
230. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Total, in Current
Dollars
231. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Total, in 1958
Dollars
232. Personal Consumption JB^enditurgs^ Jjumble Goods
233. Personal Consumption Expehditu res, Durable j^oods
Except Automobiles
234. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Automobiles
236. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nondurable Goods
237. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Services
Total personal consumption expenditures (series 230) measures the market value of goods and services purchased by
individuals and nonprofit institutions and the value of food,
clothing, housing, and financial services received by them as
income in kind. The total purchase cost, including general
sales taxes but exclusive of finance charges, is included in the
period when the transaction takes place, regardless of when
payments are made. Home purchases are not included, but
the estimated rental value of owner-occupied homes is.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1958 dollars (series
231) is obtained by deflating the current-dollar series by
appropriate price indexes. The indexes include components
of the consumer price index, compiled by the Department of
Labor, the series on prices paid by farmers, compiled by the
Department of Agriculture, and other price information. This
combination gives representation to both urban and rural
purchasers.
Personal consumption expenditures for durable goods
(series 232) measures purchases of goods which generally have
a useful life of 3 or more years. This includes such items
as automobiles, furniture, and household appliances. Durable
goods expenditures are further divided into automobiles (series
234) and durable goods except automobiles (series 233). The
classification "automobiles" covens purchases of new ears,
net purchases of used cars, and purchases of automobile tires,
accessories, and parts.
Expenditures for nondurable goods (series 236) measures
purchases of goods which generally have a useful life of legs
than 3 years. This includes food, clothing, gasoline, etc.
Expenditures for services (aeries 237) covers purchases
of services such as housing and household operation, transportation, and medical care.
240. Gross Private Domestic
Gross private domestic investment measures the net
acquisition of fixed capital goods by private business and
nonprofit institutions, including commissions arising in the
purchase and sale of new and existing fixed assets (mainly
real estate), and the value of the change in the volume of
inventories held by business. All private dwellings, including
those acquired by persons for their own occupancy, are included.
Private investment is differentiated from public expenditure
(Federal, State, and local) on the basis of ownership, not the
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
source of finance. "Gross" investment means that capital
consumption allowances are not included. Fixed capital goodsconsist of both structures and producers' durable equipment.
industrial categories. The constant-dollar change in these
inventories is then reflated to arrive at the current value of
the physical volume of the change in nonfarm inventories.
^Total gross private domestic investment is the sum of
nonresidential fixed investment (series 241), fixed investment
in residential structures (series 244), and the change in business
inventories (series 245).
Farm inventories, which are calculated at average prices
during the period, need no valuation adjustment.
241. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, Total Non-
residential
Nonresidential fixed investment: measures the net acquisition
of fixed capital goods by private business and nonprofit
institutions. It is the total of fixed investment in nonresidential
structures (series 242) and fixed investment in producers'
durable equipment (series 243).
242, Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, Nonresidential
Structures
Fixed investment in nonresidential structures measures the
construction of (and additions or alterations to) nonresidential
buildings, farm structures, and utilities, including necessary
sejrvice facilities such as plumbing, heating, and elevators. The
drilling of oil and gas wells, commissions arising in the sale
of new and existing structures, and net purchases of structures
from government are all included,, The value of structures also
covers certain types of permanent equipment, such as blast
furnaces, which are primarily built on the site.
243. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, Producers'
Durable Equipment
Fixed investment in producers'durable equipment measures
equipment expenditures by private business which are chargeable to fixed asset accounts and for which depreciation accounts
are normally maintained by businesses. Producers' durable
equipment includes all types of machinery, transportation
equipment (automobiles, trucks, etc.), furniture and fixtures,
engines and turbines, instruments, and other equipment. This
series also includes purchases of equipment from government
arid dealers' margins on the sale of used equipment, but it is
reduced by net exports of used equipment and sales of scrapped
equipment.
250. Balance on Goods and Services, Excluding Transfers
Under Military Grants
252. Exports of Goods and Services, Excluding Transfers
Under Military Grants
253. Imports of Goods and Services
These three series were described in appendix D of the
May 1969 issue of Business Conditions Digest.
260. Government Purchases of Goods and Services, Total
262. Federal Government Purchases of Goods and Services»
Total
266. State and Local Government Purchases of Goods and
Services, Total
Government purchases of goods and services (series 260)
measures general government expenditures for compensation
of employees, net purchases from business and from abroad,
and the gross investment of government enterprises. It is the
total of Federal (series 262) and State and local (series 266)
purchases of goods and services. Current outlays of government
enterprises are not included, nor are acquisitions of land,
transfer payments, interest payments to domestic creditors,
subsidies, and transactions in financial claims.
_
264. Federal Government Purchases of Goods and Services,
National Defense
National defense purchases measures that portion of total
Federal Government purchases of goods and services (series
262) which is related to national defense. The activities included
under the "national defense" classification are (1) Department
of Defense military functions, (2) military assistance to other
nations, (3) development and control of atomic energy, and (4)
stockpiling and certain other defense-related activities.
270. Final Sales, Durable Goods
274. Final Sales, Nondurable Goods
244. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, Residential
Structures
Fixed investment in residential structures measures the
construction of (and additions or alterations to) both housekeeping and nonhousekeeping residential buildings, including
nejcessary service facilities such as plumbing, heating, and
elevators. Nonhousekeeping residential buildings consist of
hotels, motels, and dormitories. Net purchases of residential
structures from government and commissions arising in the
s$le of new and existing structures are included.
245. Change in Business Inventories, All Industries
Change in business inventories measures the change in the
physical volume of inventories valued at average prices during
tf}e period. Both farm and nonfarm inventories are included
in this series.
Nonfarm inventories include purchased materials, supplies,
g<bods in process, and finished goods. Composite price indexes,
constructed from about 100 wholesale price series, are used
to deflate the book value of nonfarm inventories for about 30
Total final sales measures that part of gross national product
which is sold to final users during the period rather than
added to business inventories. Thus, it is equal to GNP (series
200) less the change in business inventories (series 245).
GNP can be divided, by major type of product, into three
components--goods, services, and structures. The goods
component, which is about half of total GNP, is further divided
into durable goods and nondurable goods. Final sales of durable
goods (series 270) is equal to the durable goods output less the
change in business inventories of durable goods (series 271).
Final sales of nondurable goods (series 274) is equal to the
nondurable goods -output less the change in business inventories
of nondurable goods (series 275).
271. Change in Business Inventories, Durable Goods
275. Change in Business Inventories, Nondurable Goods
The total change in business inventories (series 245) is the
sum of the change in business inventories of durable goods
(series 271) and the change in business inventories of nondurable
goods (series 275).
109
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
These series measure the change in physical volume of
inventories valued at average prices for the period. Purchased
materials, supplies, goods in process, and finished goods are
included. Both farm and nonfarm inventories are covered.
280, Compensation of Employees
Compensation of employees, which is the income accruing
to employees as payment for their work, is the largest component of national income (series 220). It is the sum of wages
and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries.
Wages and salaries consists of both monetary payments to
employees (including tips, commissions, bonuses, etc.) and
payments in kind which represent income to the employee.
Supplements to wages and salaries is made up of employer
contributions for social insurance and other labor income.
Employer contributions for social insurance consists of
employer payments under social security, Federal and State
unemployment insurance, railroad retirement and unemployment insurance, government retirement, and several minor
social insurance programs. Other labor income consists of
employer contributions to private pension, health, unemployment, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors'
fees; pay of the military reserve; and several minor items.
282. Proprietors1 Income
Proprietors' income measures the monetary earnings and
income in kind of sole proprietorships, partnerships, and
producers' cooperatives from their current business operations. The income of doctors, lawyers, farmers, and other
self-employed persons is included. This series also includes
the noncorporate inventory valuation adjustment, which is
identical in concept to the corporate inventory valuation adjustment (described in series 286). Supplementary income of
individuals from the rental of property is omitted, no deduction
is made for depletion, and capital gains or losses are
excluded.
The inventory valuation adjustment measures the excess of
the change in the physical volume of corporate nonfarm
inventories, valued at average prices during the period, over
the change measured at book value. This adjustment is
necessary to remove the inventory profit or loss which occurs
in business accounting when the; book cost of goods removed
from inventory differs from current replacement cost. Valuation in current prices of the costs of inventory used up puts
sales and costs on a consistent basis and is required to measure
national output in current prices, Farm income and inventories
are valued at average prices during the period and need no
valuation adjustment.
288. Net Interest
Net interest is the excess of interest payments by the U.S.
business system over its interest receipts, plus net interest
received from abroad. Interest payments by consumers and
government, including government enterprises, are not included
since they are not considered factor costs of production.
Therefore, net interest is less than the total interest accruing
to persons from business and from abroad by the amount of
consumer and government interest received by business. Net
interest includes imputed interest based on the operations of
financial intermediaries. The imputed interest consists of the
value of financial services received by persons without explicit
payment and property income received by life insurance
companies and noninsured pension funds less profits of life
insurance companies.
290. Gross Saving- -Private Saving I
or Deficit
Gross saving is the total of jpersonal saving (series 292),
undistributed corporate profits and the corporate inventory
valuation adjustment (series 294),, the excess of wage accruals
over disbursements (usually negligible), capital consumption
allowances (series 296), and government surplus or deficit
(series 298). Also, gross savingpllus Che statistical discrepancy
is equal to gross private domestic investment (series 240) plus
net foreign investment.
292. Personal Saving
284, Rental Income of Persons
Rental income of persons is the total of the monetary
earnings of persons from the rental of real property (the
earnings of persons engaged primarily in the real estate
business are excluded), the imputed net rent value of owneroccupied nonfarm dwellings, and the royalties received by
persons from patents, copyrights, and rights to natural
resources.
Personal saving measures the current saving of individuals
(including owners of unincorporated businesses), nonprofit
institutions, and private health, welfare, and trust funds. It
represents the acquisition of financial claims such as cash,
deposits, and equities in securities, insurance, and pension
funds, less the net increase in indebtedness, plus the acquisition
of physical assets net of capital consumption allowances. Thus,
it includes net increases of persons' equities in nonfarm
residences and in farms and other unincorporated businesses.
286. Corporate Profits and Inventory Valuation Adjustment
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment measures the earnings of corporations organized for profit which
accrue to U.S. residents, before Federal and State profits
taxes, without deducting depletion charges, excluding capital
gains or losses and intercorporate dividends, and including the
inventory valuation adjustment. The profits of stock life
insurance companies and mutual financial institutions are
included. Bad debt expenses are measured by actual losses,
not additions to reserves. The profit or loss of bankrupt
corporations includes the gain from unsatisfied debt. Corporate
profits includes net receipts of dividends and branch profits
from abroad, as reflected in the balance of payments accounts,
as well as profits from domestic operations. In most other
respects, the definition of profits agrees with Federal income
tax regulations.
110
Personal saving is equal to the excess of disposable personal
income (series 224) over personal outlays. Personal outlays
is the sum of personal consumption expenditures (series 230),
interest paid by consumers, and net personal transfer payments
to foreigners (which consists of personal remittances in cash
and in kind to abroad less such remittances from abroad).
294. Undistributed Corporate Profits Plusjnvgntory Valuation
Adjustment
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation
adjustment measures the change in corporate net worth arising
from current operations. Undistributed corporate profits is
equal to corporate profits (described in series 286) less Federal
and State taxes levied on corporate earnings and less cash
dividend disbursements to stockholders who are U.S. persons.
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
Undistributed corporate profits may also be considered as
purchases of physical assets plus net acquisition of financial
assets less capital consumption allowances, borrowing, and net
new stock issues.
The corporate inventory valuation adjustment (described in
series 286) eliminates the inventory profit or loss arising
from differences between book cost and replacement cost of
goods removed from inventory.
296. Capital Consumption Allowances, Corporate and Noncorporate
Capital consumption allowances is the total of depreciation
charges and accidental damage to fixed capital. Depreciation
consists of charges made by private business for the current
consumption of durable capital goods, comparable allowances
by nonprofit institutions, and also imputed depreciation for
owrier-occupied houses. Depreciation reported by business is
not adjusted for changes in the replacement value of capital
goods, except for farm enterprises. For corporations and
unincorporated nonfarm businesses, depreciation is defined the
same as in Federal income tax regulations. Accidential damage
includes losses of fixed capital due to fires, natural causes, and
other accidents not covered by depreciation charges.
298. Government Surplus or Deficit, Total
Government surplus or deficit measures the difference
between government receipts and government expenditures as
recorded in the national income and product accounts. Federal,
State, and local governments are included in this series.
Government receipts consist of personal tax and nontax
accruals, corporate profits tax accruals, indirect business tax
and nontax accruals, and contributions for social insurance.
Personal taxes include income, estate, and gift taxes at the
Federal level and income, death, gift, and property taxes and
motor vehicle licenses at the State and local level. Indirect
business taxes include alcohol, tobacco, and other excise taxes
and customs duties at the Federal level and gasoline, alcohol,
tobacco, and general sales taxes, property taxes, and motor
vehicle licenses at the State and local level. Business taxes
are recorded on an accrual basis; personal taxes are recorded
when received.
Government expenditures include purchases of goods and
services (series 260), transfer payments to persons, net
interest paid, and subsidies less the current surplus of
government enterprises. Federal expenditures also include
net transfer payments to foreigners.
Ill
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857. .
.October 1860
.April 1865
June 1869
.October 1873
.March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
.March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
.September 1902
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
.May 1907
January 1910
lanuarv 1Q13
.August 1918
January 1920
.May 1923
(X)
18
8
32
13
65
30
22
46
(X)
48
30
(x)
40
54
15
?a
34
36
35
'36
99
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
IB
24
21
74
3%
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
33
42
39
23
13
24
23
7
l
l
33
19
12
44
TO
22
44
46
43
35
51,
56
32
36
67
17
40
36
'40
64
63
3g
41
34
93
93
Z5
56
48
34
(X)
ai
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938. .
October 1945
October 1949
.October 1926
August 1929
.May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
i
l
27
21
50
80
37
45
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
.May 1960 . .
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
38
44
34
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 .
4 cycles, 1945-1961 . .
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961..
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
July 1924
Peak from
previous
peak
as
H9
254
46
3
4
46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War) the postwar con tractions, and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
25 cycles, 1857-1960.*
^ cycles, 1945-1960.
$1 cycles, 1920-4960
2
4
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
^ cydeSf 1945-1960'.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
112
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date) (issue date)
Tables
•••
?n*» I PIMP in 1QW Hollars
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
9,21,38
9,21,38,56
9
9
5,65,71
5,65,71,87
9
• •
5,65
5,65
5,65
A2. National and Personal Income
1
0
1
0
10
.
1
0
v
July'68#
Jan. '69
, Aug. '69
^
July '69
July '69
July '69
July '69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,65
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
1
0
5,65
Aug.
'69
Oct.
'69
1
0
224. Disposable personal income, current dol.. . .
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol ...
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227,1 Per capita disposable personal income,
5,65
Aug.
'69
Oct.
'69
5,65
5,65
5,65
A3. Personol Consumption Expenditures
11
11
231. Total, constant dollars
1
1
232., Durable goods, current dollars
1
233.1 Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . . 1
1
1
234. Automobiles, current dollars
1
1
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.. i Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Nonresidential fixed investment
....
A5. Foreign Trade
A6. (jiov. Purchases, Goods and Services
2SQ. Federal, State, and local governments
262.) Federal Government
14
14
14,53
14
266 State and local governments
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,66,74
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
5,67
•Aug. '69
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,67,85
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct., '69
July '68# Oct. '69
Oct.
'69
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
15
5,67
Oct.
'69
15
5,67
15
5,67
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
. • 15
5,67
Oct.
•
16
16
16
16
16
5,67
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . .
,
*54 Sales of retail stores
A9. Saving
290 1 Gross saving private and government
292 Personal saving
* ••
294. i Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
5,67
5,67
5,68
5,68
17
17
5,68
17
17
17
5,68
5,68
5,68
5,68
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
4 Nonagri placements all industries
18,36
18
18
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . .18,36
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
18
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
42. ' Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*4? Unsfnolovnient rate total
45. Avg..weekly insured unemploy. rate
40 Unemployment rate married males
*44! | Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
6,69
1
9
1
9
1
9
19,38
1
9
20,38
20
20
20,39
6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Aug.
Mar.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Mar.
Mar.
Oct.
Mar.
Mar.
'69
'69
June ' 69
'68#
Aug.
Aug.
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
'68
Oct.
Mar.
Oct.
Mar.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
June '69
Aug.
'68
June '69
Aug.
'68
'68$
'68
June '69
6,65,71 July 68f
6,65,71,87 July 68f
6,71,99
Dec. 68
July 69
6,71
6,71
July 69
6,71
May '69
July '69
6,71
6,71
May '69
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
July
July
Feb.
July
»69
'69
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
Apr
Mar.
Sep.
' 68$
'68
'68 Sep.
'68
Sep.
'68 Sep.
'68
24
.24
24
24
24,36
6,72
6,72
6,73
6,73
6,73
Aug. '67
Sep. '68 Sep.
May '67
May '68 Apr.
June '68 Apr.
'69
'69
11.
24.
9.
7.
*29.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
New orders, mach. and equip, industries .
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New bldg. permits, private housing
96.
97.
*61.
69.
6,73
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . 25
6,73
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing . 25
Business expend"., new plant and equip . • . 25,39,40 7,73,79
Machinery and equipment sales and
25
7,73
business construction expenditures
32.
25.
*71.
65.
'68 Sep.
'67
'68 Nov.
'68
Sep.
'68# Sep.
'68#
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
July
Dec.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
'68# Oct.
'68 Feb.
'68
'68 Sep.
'68
'69
'69
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.
'68
'68 Sep.
'69 Feb.
'68 Sep.
, 28,37
28,37,64
28,37
7,74
7,74
7,74
Apr. '69 Apr. '69
June '69 May '69
July '69 July '68
28
28
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '68
Mar. '69 Mar. '69
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
29
29,55
7,75
7,75,86
June '69
June '69
29
29,39
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '68
Dec. '68 Nov. '68
30
30
30
30,37
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Oct.
Oct.
Mar.
Jan.
'69 Aug. '68
»69 Aug. '68
'69
'69 July '64
30
31
31
31
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
June
Mar.
Feb.
June
"69
'68
'69
'69
32
32
32
. . . ....... 32
7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77
Jan.
Apr.
June
Jan.
'68
'68 July '64
'68 July '64
'68 July '64
7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
Jan.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'69
'69
'68
'68
July '64
34
.
6,78
Sep.
'69
Nov.
'68
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27,39
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods . 27
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23 Industrial materials prices ......
*19 Stock orices 500 common stocks
*1fi
Pnrnnratp nrnfjfc aftpr tflXPS
*22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
15. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
*17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
B6. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
117
66
*72.
*67.
118.
'68
Sep.
Aug.
Nov.
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
12,26
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus
26,37
*31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories . . 26
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories . 26
26
115 Treasurv bond yields
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
9,21,38
9,21,38,56
21,38,63
21,38
21
.
22,38
22
22,38
23,36
23
23,36
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
23
8 Construction contracts total value
23,36
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .
'69
'69
'69
780 ' Cornoensation of employees
282 Proprietors' income * « .
•*•
784 Rental income of persons •
....
286* Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj
288 Net interest
• ••
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Tables
53. Fixed Capital Investment
'69
270. 1 Final sales, durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
774 ' Final sales nondurable coods
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
12
12
12
12
12
12,26
13,47
.... 13,49
13,49
?*i? Exoorts of foods and services
Charts
Historical
Series
data
lescriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross Notional Product
200 GNP in current dollars
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
32
Municipal bond yields
33
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . 33,39
.
33,39
Bank rates on short-terms bus. loans
33
Mortgage yields, residential
B7. Composite Indexes
8 10. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj .
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
820. 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
815, Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
7,66,74
-68
'68
'68
'69
'68
June '69
June '69
July '64
July '64
July '64
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication data shown.
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and tables titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
420,
425.
430
435,
Tables
Charts
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS--Con.
D4, Price Movements
Cl. Aggregate Series
*61.
410.
412.
414.
416.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Bus, expend, new plant and equip
Manufacturers' sales total
Mfrs ' inventories book value
Condition of mfrs.' inventories
Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity
25,39,40
41
41
41
41
Household income compared to year ago — 42
Probability of change, household income . . .42
New cars ourchased bv households • • • • « « 42
42
Index of consumer sentiment
73,79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
Mar. '69
Nov. '68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
a, 86
1 86
86
1 86
750.
58,.
751.
752
Wholesale price index,
Wholesale price index
Wholesale price index,
Wholesale price index
. £4
. 54
54
all commodities . . . 53
29,SSi
mfd, goods
proc0 foods, feeds. . 55
S3
farm products
May
May
May
May
; 8,86
86,73
86
!
86
54,62
782 Consumer price index food
783 Consumer price index commodities
784 Consumer price index services
June
Juno
June
Juno
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
' 69
May
May
May
May
Juno
Juno
June
Juno
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D440, New orders, manufacturing
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
D444 Net sales manufacturing and trade
*
D446. Number of employees, mfg, and trade
D450, Level of inventories, mfg, and trade
D460, Selling prices, manufacturing
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade
D466, Selling prices, retail trade
80
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'6B
'68
'68
44
44
44
44
44
•
43
43
43
43
80
80
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
45
45
45
D61, Bus. expend., new plant and equip
81
81
81
Feb. '69
Feb. '69
Feb. '69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500 Merchandise trade balance
46
46
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor
UP h if IPS
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512 General imoorts *
•••
••
*•
8,82
8,82
May '69
May '69
46
46
46
8,82
8,82
8,82
Aug.'68# Aug. '68#
Apr. '69
May '69 May '69
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
47
520. U.S. bal. of pmts,, liquidity bal, basis
522. U.S. bal. of pmts., official settlements
47
basis
525. Net capital movements, liquidity bal, basis. . 47
527, Net capital movements, official settlements
47
basis . .
May '69
May '69
13,47
elri
549,
561.
560.
565,
564.
570.
IIP
'r*
!r»
k
M* *
**
Payments, transportation and services
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities . .
Govt. grants and capital transactions
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
83
July '69 May '69
48
48
13,49
13,49
83
83
83
83
July
July
July
July
83
83
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
49
541, Foreigners' investment income, military
expend and services imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
83
83
49
49
537 Merchandise imoorts adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
July '69 May «69
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
48
532. Liquid and non liquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
§34 U S official reserve assets
252. Exports of goods and services
8,83
B, S3
83
83
83
84
84
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
50
50
50
50
50
50
84
84
84
84
84
84
51
51
51
51
51
51
84
84
84
84
34
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616,
621.
647.
648.
625.
Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . .52
52
Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . .
52
Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. . .
14,53
National defense purchases
53
Defense Dept. obligations, total
53
Defense Dept, obligations, procurement
53
New orders, defense products industries
53
New orders, defense products
53
Military contract awards in U,S
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,67,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
85
8,85
July '69
July '69
July '69
July'68#
Oct. »69
Oct. '69
Sep.'68#
Aug! '67#
*Serl0s preceded by an asterisk {*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators,
114
July '68$
July '68#
July '68$
Oct. '69
Sep.
'68$
(j,(V5,71,£f
37
3,87
9,21,28,%
56
56
July'68# Oet. '69
E2. Anolyticol Ratios
| 8,88
8,88
July '67
May '69
Fob. '69
57
8,88
Sep. '68
Sop. '68
£7
8,88
Dee. '61! Nov. '68
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing* • . £7
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg, and trade . 57
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
854, Ratio, personal saving to disposable
8,811
E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg ....
06, New orders, durable goods industries
Dll, New capital appropriations mfg
034 Profits manufacturing
**
D5, Initial claims, State unempioy. insurance. .
D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
D58, Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
E5. Rates of Change
200 GNP in current dollars
*
205. GNP in constant dollars
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators.
48. Man-hours in nonagri, establishments
52
47.
55.
781
Personal income
Index of industrial production
Index of whsle. prices, Indus, commodities
Index of consumer prices all items
July '68
n/?i
Mar. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Juno '68
Juno '68
8, Bit
8,88
AUPJ. '69 Juno '68
Fob, '68
rtvxi
90,%
Sep.
Oat.
Aug.
Got,
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'68
'68
'67
'64
'69 May '69
'69 Apr. '69
'69 Juno '69
91 9S
91 1 93
91,96
91,97
Sep.
Dee.
June
Apr.
'68
'68
'69 June '69
'63
Jan.
Jon.
Sop.
Sop.
Sep.
Sop.
Sep.
Sop,
Sep.
£9
59
£9
59
59
£9
£9
July '69
8,88
8,88
S8
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
£0
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . 58
58
856, Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . .
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. . 58
58
857. Vacancy rate total rental housing
July '69 May '69
49
50
50
El. Actuol and Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207, GNP gap (potential less actual)
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
$VJ,!
M
90
90/33
f
H),(H
60
eo
60
60
61
61
COL
61
61
61
61
61
61
Got.
Oet.
Nev,
Au$.
'69
'69
'68
'68
July '68
Nov. '68
Juno '69
May '69
F, INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl. Consumer Price Indexes
781, United States
133. Canada
135. West Germany
136. France
137. Italy
68
62
62
9rt
9tt
98
May '69
Hoy '69
Get. '67
Get. '67
Got. '67
Oet. '67
Oct. '67
Oet. '67
21,38,63
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
Dos.
July
Mov.
Nov.
June
Apr.
June
Nov.
'68 Nov. '68
'67
'67
'67
'68
'68
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F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47 United States
123 Canada
126,
125.
128,
121.
127.
France.
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19. United States
143 Canada
.
142 United Kingdom • • •
146 France .
* ...
145. West Germany
148. Japan
147. Italy
63
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#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown,
May '69
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification pwposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D"j preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, 138, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commei
" fierce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q), -- department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -•< Department! of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). • Department of Com*
merce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -• Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). •Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4 r B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). •Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving - private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). •• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
292. Personal saving (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). » Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
<A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Department of Labor,
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, 88)
* 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8; E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -• Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
"10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hili
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations(Q).--National Industrial Conference Board (B3.E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). - Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q). Office of Business Economics
Department of Commerce,
(B5, 88)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost - ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5, B8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -• Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, BB,E3, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(84)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). - Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). *• National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, 88)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). -- Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
National Mortgage Association, National Association of
Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer Installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). - American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). •• Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor-force survey (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45 Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). •• Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl)
46, Index of. help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(61)
M7 Index of industrial production (M). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(82, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*52. Personal income (M). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8, E5)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(62)
*54. Sales of retail stores (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).ment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M), - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(135, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B3, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to Index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
116
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations - ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sates and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(63)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(&6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) <M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q), -• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(66)
*113.Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). - Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department(Bg)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
(86)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
811. Twelve leading indicators - composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments - leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12t and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(67)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing -- leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). - Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(67)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(67)
817. Sensitive financial flows - leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). « Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(67)
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47,52, and 56) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturer;;' sales, total value (Q). « Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
412. Manufacturer;;' inventories, total book value (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Off ice
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
om.
existing capacity as excessive '(EOQ). - Department of Co
(Cl)
merce, Office of Business Economics
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (averse chances in 10X1) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q).
Survey Heseardi Center
University of Michigan,
(Cl)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). •• Dun and
Bradstreet, Ire. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D450. Level o(f inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -• Dun and
Bradstreet, IRC. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D460. Selling price®, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling ibices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without writtsfi permission from tho source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling xice:>( wholesale trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. .(Used by permission. Tfiis series may not be reproduced
without written permission from She source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices;, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission This series may not be reproduced without written pemiission from the source.)
(C2)
D480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads
(C2)
480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). •- Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B,
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q), -- See in section
253. Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). --Sei3 in section A.
t purchases of goods and services, national
264. Federal Cioi
defense (Q). - See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Departmerit of Commerce, 6ureau of the Census
(Dl)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). - Department of Ccmmerce, Bureau of tho Census
(01)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Burejau of the Census
(Dl)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). •• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565.T\ purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payIs (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
lomics
(D2)
|
570. OTiment grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
ayments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of BusiEconomics
(02)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). ••
McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
575.
(ing and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
nents (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
lomics
(02)
512. General imports, total (M). • Department of Commerce, Bureau
(Dl)
of the Census
600.
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all jforeigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
601.
ieral Government surplus or deficit, national income and
uct accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
iness Economics
(03)
era! Government receipts, national income and product
Hints (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
lomics
(D3)
feral expenditures, national income and product accounts
•• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain non liquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -,- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers •- except
military grants -• and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
602.
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau
o f Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -•
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
(03)
616,
621
(ense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
tary assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
lysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
isus
(03)
ense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -lartment of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
istment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, 019, 023, 041, D47, D54, 058, 061,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). - first National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers - except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
625
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
itary prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
itutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
istical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
sus
(D3)
647,!
« orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
nmerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
« orders, defense products (M). — Department of Commerce,
leau of the Census
(03)
75C flex of wholesale prices, alt commodities (M). -- Department
| Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
532. Liquid and certain non liquid liabilities (excluding (military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
64f
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
751 toex of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Apartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
i
75) |lex of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
fcbor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). ~- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(02)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military s'ales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of paymerits (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
'
(D2)
546. Military sates to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (02)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). - - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of [payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Ecbnomics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
78:
iex of consumer prices (IB). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
! Labor Statistics.
(D4, E5, Fl)
F International Comparisons
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) - Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
px of consumer prices, food (M). -• Department of Labor,
Sreau of Labor Statistics
(04)
78! riex of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Departint of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistiscnes Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). - Institut National
dela Statistiqueetdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
78 ,i tiex of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
jjueau of Labor Statistics
(04)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
78;:
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -• Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
i Analytical Measures
4; flex of industrial production (M). See in section B.
411 im-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in seein B.
5: J ersonal income (M). See in section B.
5
Jles of retail stores (M). See in section B.
5
dex of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
Ktion B.
20'; HP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
20 jross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
20
20
ptential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -nuncil of Economic Advisers
(El)
Lp -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
iteries205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
78
idex of consumer prices, all items (M).
82
live coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
i, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
8!'
See in section D.
jatio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Govbiors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
lid McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
8! fcatio, inventories (series 71) to sates (series 56), manufacturig and trade total (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Office of
usiness Economics
(E2)
atio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
irable goods (EOM). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
ensus
(E2)
atio, production of business equipment to production of
onsumer goods (M). -• Board of Governors of the Federal
eserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
eserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany,, index of consumer prices (Wl), •- Statist!sches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
{Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insttut National de la
Statistiqueetdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).
Statistica(Rome)
Istituto Centrale di
(H)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). - Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). • • The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (1)11). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). •- Statisttsches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique etdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). - Istituto Centrale di Statis(F3)
tica(Rome)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).
(Tokyo)
Tokyo Stock Exchange
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
UNITED STATES
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