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bed
DEVELOPMENTS
October 1967
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
This report was prepared in the Economic
Research and Analysts Division under the
direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for
computer processing,
John C. Musgrave—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division. Stuart L Freeman is responsible for publication design.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $? a year ($1J5 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge. For information about domestic or
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.
ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity, The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel.
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
October 196 7
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 96 U.S.
series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back
cover of this report.
_
DEVELOPMENTS
October 1967
DATA 1THROUGH SEPTEMBER
Series ES1 No. 67-10
CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
v
vi
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4
Section One—Basic Data
Table
Chart
Chart
Table
Table
1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
1A. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
IB. Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present . . . .
2A. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
2B. Latest Data for International Comparisons
6
9
30
33
46
Section Two—Analytical Measures
Table
Chart
Table
Table
3.
2.
4.
5.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods . . . .
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
50
51
54
58
CONTENTS
Continued
BCD Technical Paper
Indexes of Industrial Production, Consumer Prices, and Stock Prices for
Seven Countries
65
Appendixes
*Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961.
* Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators.
* Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series.
*Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series.
* Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961.
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
77
Index
Series Finding Guide
83
* These appendixes have been omitted from this issue. See September issue.
ii
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)
^\
Cyclical
\.
Timing
Economic ^-\
Process
^\^
1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration unemployment
(1 series)
Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
\
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
{8 series)
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)
Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs
(2 series)
(2 series)
Flows of money and credit
(8 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
IViortey market interest
rates
(4 series)
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
OTHER
SELECTED U.S. SERIES
(16 series)
Investment expenditures
(2 series)
inventories
(2 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
fill. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)
Federal Government
activities
(9 series)
111
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.
The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow:
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories take into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role in business cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them. The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and
19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S.
series are classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series;(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, mew investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures.
tion in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD
in addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They are
"U.S. Series Under Consideration" (eight series not
yet classified by cyclical timing and economic process
but under consideration for the list of indicators)
and "International Comparisons" (19vseries showing
industrial production, consumer prices, and stock
prices for several countries which have important
trade relations with the United States).
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):
13 series new to the 1966 list:
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101. National defense purchases
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings
10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
*Denotes series included on "short list."
3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplicaIV
g A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1.—Indexes of consumer prices and stock prices for the
United States and six selected countries (Canada, United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy) are added to the
information on "International Comparisons."
2.—A paper, "Indexes of Industrial Production, Consumer
Prices, and Stock Prices for Seven Countries," by John C. Musgrave, is included in this issue. This paper describes the
series on industrial production and consumer and stock prices
for countries covered under the category, "International Comparisons."
3.—Series 511 on man-hours in nonagricultural establishments was revised by the source agency to reflect the adoption
of a new benchmark (March 1966).
4.—The series on the Federal cash budget (series 82, 83,
and 84) were revised by the source agency for the period beginning with the third quarter 1963. These revisions reflect an
adjustment of the seasonally adjusted data for accelerated
corporate tax payments.
5.—The following revisions in the data on labor turnover
(series 2 and 3) were made by the source agency:
Series 2: August 1956, 4.0; June 1963, 3.7
Series 3: October 1956, 1.6
6.—Diffusion indexes Dl are revised in this issue for the
period 1948 through July 1966. Revisions for the period beginning August 1966 were published in the September issue.
7.—Diffusion indexes D41 are revised in this issue for the
period January 1965 through July 1966. Revisions for the
period prior to 1965 will be shown in a subsequent issue.
8.—The MGD curve for the series on manufacturers1 new
orders for export (series 861) is changed to 6-month spans in
chart 1. This curve previously was based on 4-month spans.
9.—Appendix F includes historical data for series 1, 19,
41, 82, 83, 84, 132, 133, 135, 136, 137, 138, 142, 143, 145,
'146, 147, 148, and Dl.
10.—The section on cyclical comparisons and appendixes A,
B, C, D, and E are omitted from this issue in order to provide
space for the paper on international comparisons and an
expanded appendix F.
The November issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled
for release on November 29.
3 CINSUS
ltlferis
CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X - l l , has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a shorf span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.
VI
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do* not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag-
ging" indicators, These indicators are described as
follows:
Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks
or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity
as measured by the roughly coincident series (see
below). One group of these series pertains to orders
and contracts, another to inventory investment, and
so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move
roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural
employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and
equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are
reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Other Selected U.S.
Series," economic activities which are important in
analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent
relation to them; (b) "U.S. Series Under Consideration," indicators that measure important economic relationships but have not been classified by economic
process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated
into the list of 88 indicators; and (c) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
several countries which have important trade relations
with the United States.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report
are those designated by the NBER. They mark the
approximate dates when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels.
As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months
after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and
trough dates.)
ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two principles.
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST'1 OF INDICATORS
A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of two major sections as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 to 5).—Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the business
cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 5.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.
REFERENCES
Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955),
pp. 7-16.
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966.
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,
Occasional Paper 103. New York: National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Reces
sion (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 -
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER.
Series
Af?hir number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("3" = March)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.
R o m a n number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates
data.
B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s a c t u a l
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
40
Solid line with plotting points indi
cates quarterly data.
anticipated
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
' series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc. The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components
rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("2" =
February^
Solid line with plotting points indi
cates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. C1V" =
fourth quarter)
Broken line with plotting points in
dicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used tc
indicate anticipated quarterly data
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
LAGGING
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production, income, consumption, and trade
Fixed capital investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Mortey and credif
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
OTHER U.SVSER/ES
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION (unclassified series) and INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
(indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for selected foreign countries)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Aug.
1967
July
1967
June
J967
3
Sept. '66 Sept. '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with4 (without
(without
sign)
sign) 5 sign) 56
Sept.
1967
Current percent change3
June
to
July
1967
July
to
Aug.
1967
Aug.
to
Sept.
1967
LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
Hours
*1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
Thousands.
*30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
Per 100 employ. .
2 Accession rate, manufacturing
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
3
unemployment insurance (inverted ) . Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 3 ) . Per 100 employ. .
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
1957-59=100...
*38. Index of net business formation
Number
13. New business incorporations
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . Bil. dollars
1957-59=100...
94. Construction contracts, value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. . .Bil. dollars
do
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.
do
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
Mil. sq. ft.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
floor space . . .
and industrial buildings
Ann. rate, thous.
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
1957-59=100 ..
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in business
inventories, all
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
industries7 8
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
do
and trade inventories 8
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Percent . .
higher inventories
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven8
Ann. rate, bil.doi.
tories of materials and supplies
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer "5)
Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries u)
do
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
8
Bil. dollars ...
goods industries
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices iu)
1957-59=100...
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ® . . .1941-43=10...
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes 7
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
7
corporate, all industries
Percent . .
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7
Cents
1957-59=100..
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
deposits 8
..... do
85. Change in total U.S. money
supply 8
8
33. Change in mortgage debt
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
8
do
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt
.
.
8
112. Change in business loans
do
7
110. Total private borrowing
Ann. rate, mil.dol
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3) Mil. dollars ...
39. Delinquency rate, installment3 loans,
Percent
30 days and over (inverted )
40.3
487
4.6
r40.4
4B4
r4.2
r40.7
487
P4.3
p40.7
p47l
(NA)'
-0.1
-0.6
-1.0
0.4
3.2
4.4
225
1.4
265
1.6
211
pi. 3
200
(NA)
-1.3
-2.1
8.8
8.8
5.0 -17.8 +20.4
9.2 -14.3 +18.8
+5.2
(NA)
110.5
17,676
(NA)
(NA)
+0.7
+1.2
1.3
3.7
0.8
2.5
-0.6
+1,9
-9.7 +10.0
(NA)
(NA)
3.3
7.0
3.8
3.0
3.4
3.8
6.6
4.7
9.7
4.2
-2.5
-9.1
-1.7
-1.3
+10.7
+7,3
(NA)
+4.1
-3.2
+1.8
-6.8
+13.9
+1.5
+3.1
-1.6
+3.6
+2.9
109.0
108.4
17,799
16,072
24.26
r23.66
164
5.82
149
r5.72
4.79
r4'.35
64.03
55.29
rl,356
1,214
97.9
96.4
r23.36
rl65
p22.6l
168
P5.72
0.5
1.8
. 4.6
+0.2
-0.6
-8.7
+0.7
+0,6
+2.4
0.0
-3.3
(NA)
(NA)
r5.05
p4.64
-0.8
+1.5
-0.7
-3.0
-0.4
63.00
r 1,377
r99.4
62.01
pi, 427
P102.3
+0.6
+3.4
+4.1
11.9
8.9
5.6
-2.5
6.5
2.3
-0.4
4.4
3.7
+sa
+0.7
(NA)
-1.1
7.7
6.5
-4.8
+7.5
+4,7
-0.2
1.1
1.5
+0.2
+1.6
(NA)
-10.3
. +8.2
-7.6
+4.9
+2.3
P+1.5
p+4.6
(NA)
9.3 -13.6
7.3 +11.7
3.7
-1.5
-8,1
+1.0
r-4.2
r+3.9
42
, 40
43^
-1.0
r-0.8
p+0.8
68
61
66
61
-1.2
4.5
5.3
38
41
43
44
-3.5
8.4
7.5
+1.21
r+0.52
r-0.10
p+0.41
-0.16
0.81
0.48
99.8
98.3
98.1
97.8
-0.9
1.1
1.3
-1.5
-0.2
-0.3
91.43
93.01
94.49
95.81
+1.8
2.1
2.5
+1.7
+1.6
+1.4
(NA)
-2,0
2.0
(NA)
(NA)
r99.6
-2.9
-3.8
-0.4
99.8
rlOO*.2
45
(HA)
p99.1
.
+7.9
-0.69 -0.62 +0.51
5.6
(NA)
2.9
3.8
0.5
4.2
5.7
0,6
(NA)
(NA)
-0.6
•
+0.4
-0.5
1
+14.28
+11.64
+19.34
+ 3.50
+8.16
87.20
1.72
+13.44 r+12.96
+11.52
r+8.04
+12.95 p+22.84
+2.70
+4.13
+16.46
(NA)
p+6.36
p+1.32
(NA)
(MA)
p-2.34
+0.25
-0.13
+1.04
-0.14
-0.22
+4.5
3.81
5.47
3,42
0.86
7.19
11.3
2.49
2.88
1.31
0.87
2.22
11.0
98.29
93.10
-0.9
19.3
IS. 7 +26.4 -53.2
+1.5
4. a
64.15
1.65
2.6
-0.84
-0.12
-6.39
-0.80
+8.30
-0.48 -6.60
-3.48 -6.72
(NA)
+9.89
(NA)
41.43
-25.90 +7.10
(NA)
+4.1
+5.3
Table 1
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
June
1967
July
1967
Average percent change2 3
Aug.
1967
Sept.
1967
Sept. '66 Sept. '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with4 (without
(without
5
sign)'
sign)
sign)5 6
Current percent change3
June
to
July
1967
July
to
Aug.
1967
Aug.
to
Sept.
1967
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
Thousands
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
1957-59=100..
Comprehensive Employment:
511. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments . . . Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours...
*41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thousands
do
42. Total nonagricultural employment
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted ). . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
do
State (inverted3)
do
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv3)
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production:
49. GNP in current dollars7
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales7
*54. Sales of r etail stores
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus. . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.9
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commod.®...
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves 8 (inverted3)©
Money Market Interest Rates:
114. Treasury bill rate®
116. Corporate bond yields ®
115. Treasury bond yields®
117 Municipal bond yields @
337
169
352
180
P378
pl85
-1.2
-0.1
3.1
2.2
3.0
-2.9
-1.2
+4.5
+6.5
+7.4
+2.8
r!33.91 rl33.66
65,903 r65,939
70,420
70,633
r!34.89
r66,2l6
70,726
p!34.76
p66,100
70,949
+0.2
+0.2
+0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.2
+0..1
+0.3
+0.9
+0.4
+0,1
-0.1
-0.2
+0.3
+2.5
+2.6
-7.9
347
171
3.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
4.1
-0.9
3.6
3.9
2,6
2.0
2.8
1.8
2.6
2.0
2.4
1.8
-1.3
+0.2
5.2
5.9
4.2
-7.7
5.1 +10.0
P156.3
+1.4
+0.6
-0.1
1.4
0.7
0.5
1.5
1.3
1.0
p633.5
pl65.1
+0.5
+0.3
0.5
0.5
+0.3
+1.7
+0.3
p77,02
(NA).
+7.1
-11.1
+7.7
+10.0
+0.6
+1.9
+1.0
+0,8
-1.0
0.5
0.8
+0.7
+0.6
+0.7
+1.1
+0.3
-0.1
0.8
1.7
0.8
1.0
1.4
1.0
+0.4
'(NA)
-0.4
+0.4
+1,8
+0.4
+0.2
-1.5
o.a
1.4
5.6
+0.7
-0.1
1.5
+0.5
(NA)
Ann. rate, bil. doL
do
1957-59-100..
155*5
r!56,5
p790.1
p671.6
r!57.8
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
622.6
162.4
r 627.0
r!63.4
r631.5
rl65.2
Mil. dollars...
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
Mil. dollars...
88,549
26,544
Bil. dollars...
do
76.18
pl9.82
r76,71
1957-59-100..
do
106.0
106.6
106.0
106.8
106.3
106.8
106.5
107.1
+0.1
+0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
+0.2
+0.3
0.0
+0.2
+0.3
Mil. dollars...
+297
+272
r+298
p+275
-54
82
98
+25
-26
+23
Per cent
do
do
do
3.48
6.06
4. 66
3.96
4.31
6.06
4.86
4.02
4.28
6.30
4.95
3.99
4.45
6.33
4.98
4.12
-1.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.1
6.0
2.7
2.0
2.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
$.7
+23.9
0.0
0.0
+1.5
-0.7
+4,0
+1,9
-0.7
+4.0
+0.5
+0.6
+3.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.5
5.6
6.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
+0.5
1.6
3.2
p89,329
p788.6
r 26 ,444 r26,558
r88,935
r76.62
(NA)
p26,688
+0.5
LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
Percent
15 weeks and over (inverted3)
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Bus. expenditures, newplantand equip.7 Ann.rate, bil.dol.
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures . .
do
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories .
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
Bil. dollars...
do
a62.50
+1.6
68.30
r70.20
p69.28
(NA)
-0.6
1.8
1.6
+2.8
-1.3
(NA)
rl37.08
r!37.40
pl37.78
(HA)
+0.5
0.5
0.5
+0,2
+0,3
(NA)
27.00
r27.20
p27.27
(HA)
+0.8
1.0
0.6
+0.7
+0.3
(NA)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change2
- Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unitof
measure
June
1967
July
1967
Aug.
1967
Sept.
1967
Sept. '66 Sept. '66
to date
to date
(with 4 (without5
sign)
sign)
3
1953 to
1965
(without
sign) 56
Current percent change3
June
to
July
1967
July
to
Aug.
1967
Aug.
to
Sept.
1967
LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp. 7 . . . .Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1957-59=100 ...
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
Mil. dollars ....
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
do
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®. Percent
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential ©
106.8
rl06.6
(HA)
rl07.2
74,924
75,149
75,493
63,341
64,352
62,944
6*. 51
6! 53
5.94
6.60
pio8.i
(HA)
p63,309
6,63
+1.3
+0,5
3.3
0.5
0,8
0.5
-0,2
(HA)
+0.6
+0.8
+0.4
0,4
0.8
+0,3
+0.5
(HA)
+0.5
1.2
1,0
+1.6
-2,2
+0.6
-1.4
0.0
1.5
1.3
2.0
0,1
+0.3
-0,2
+1.1
+0.5
+0.2
0,2
0,2
+0.4
+0.3
+0.2
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81. Consumer prices®
117.1
116.0
1957-59 = 100...
116.5
116.9
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 B
(NA)
a Liquidity balance basis
Mil. dollars ....
(MA)
do
b. Official settlements basis
8
3
r+355.2 r-f 352.0 r-f 446. 6
M16.7
88. Merchandise trade balance (inverted )
do
do
86. Exports, excluding military aid
r2,583.4 r2,587.4 2,560,7 2,631,6
(NA)
do
pE41
rB75
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.®
1,043
(HA)
p228
218
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . 1957-59=100...
r219
2,223.2 2,235.4 r2,114.1 2,214.9
87. General imports
Mil. dollars
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-), nat'l.
income and prod, acct.7 8
(MA)
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit (-)7 8
do
-19.5
7
83. Federal cash receipts from public
do
154.0
82. Federal cash payments to public7
do
173.5
101. National 7defense purchases, current
dollars
P73.9
do
r7,170
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
5,357
(NA)
Mil. dollars...
do
90. Defense Dept oblig procurement
r2,330
(M)
1,435
r2.66
P3.56
4.20
r3.64
99. New orders, defense products industries Bil. dollars. . . .
3,626
r3,6lO
(HA)
p3,727
92 Military contract awards in U S
Mil. dollars... .
-116
-558
-15.2
+0.4
+0.1
+1.9
-0.3
133
1,234
58.7
2,7
17,3
8.9
3.1
-4.7
-2.4
'+0,8
+2.4
4.7
8.2
1.7
4.7
+4.1
-1.2
-0.1
-0,3
+1.6
4.1
8.7
17.4
17,2
10.6
(NA)
341
(MA)
492
+3.2 -94.6 +29.9
58.4
+2.8
-1.0
3.8
+0.2
(NA)
-3.9
12.4 -16.1
(NA)
+0.5
6,3
+4.1
+4.8
3.0 ' +0.3
-5.4
(HA)
-21.1
-0.1
+13.8
2.5
4.2
3.1
3.6
2,3
13.9 -253
27.4 -38.4
22,5
-13.3
18.1
-0,4
+1.9
(NA)
(NA)
-26.9
+3.2
+33.8
(NA)
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. 7
851. Ratio, inventories to safes, mfg., trade.
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal saving
to disposable
personal income7
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
Percent
Ratio
P 83.8
do
1957-59 = 100...
1*.55
rl*.55
pi. 54
(NA)
-1.9
+0.2
1.9
0.8
2.2
1,0
0.6
-1,2
-0.6
(NA)
3.74
r3.71
r3.65
'P3.81
+0*4
1.7
2.0
-0,8
-1.6
+4.4
123.6
r!23.0
rl21. 9
p!23.4
-0,2
0.8
1,0
-0.5
-0.9
+1,2
+5.3
9.4
8,5
-2.0
+0.1
-2,0
3.6
0,2
2.9
.5.8
0.4
3.6
Ratio
do
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
1957-59=100...
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing7 . . Percent
pO.069
0.112
115.2
0.112
115.2
0.118
115.6
(MA)
pQ.119
pl!5.5
+3.0
0.0
0.0
+5.4
+0.3
(NA)
+0.8
-0.1
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ®Not seasonally adjusted.
NA =not available; r =revised; p= preliminary; e =estimated; a=anticipated.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additional basic data and notes in
2
3
table 2.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of
cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and
declines as rises (see series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 88, 93, and 502). Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other
5
6
"change" qualifications.
Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to sign.
The period varies among the series; however, for most
8
series, the period covered is 1953-65.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.9Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.
8
Chart 1A
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT g
Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) {Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948
49
50
51
52
P
T
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
IMay) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk { * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33.
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
IH. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
[Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
[July) [Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
130-
formation (1957-59=100]
1201101009025-
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
20-
15 H^
i ?j
94. Construction contracts, total value (index:
1957-59=WMCD moving avg.-b-term]
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol
59
r.iiis How to Read Charts 1 and 2, page J. Aslarisk I * ; identifies seizes ;v? 't^On
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
in
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1
SO
61
62
63
Current data to? these series are showi? c-ri
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
7. Private nonfarm housing starts |ann
millions: MCD moving avg.-6-term)
. permits, private
(index: 1957-59-100)
67
1968
|
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT -Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EC. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
nies reporting higher inventories
irod. mtls., percent of companies
itments 60 days or longer
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page Jb.
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY IN VEST ME NT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
, 500 common
stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36.
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
I. PRICES,COSTS,ANDPROFITS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.
P T
*17. Ratio, pi 10 unit laborpii, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100)
IS48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
53
60
61
62
63
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk j * ] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data tar tiiese series are showr on
bed
Chart 1A
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading indicators-Continued
YL. MONEY AND CREDIT
[Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
supply and time deposits
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
debt (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
debt (ann. rate,
n. rate, bit. dol.; MCD moving avg
54
56
58
;17
58
59
60
968
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
ana over,
(percent-inverted scale)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
1ft
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
60
61
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued 0
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.;
P T
*41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 38.
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
65
67
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
I.
P
(July) (Apr.;
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
5B
59
60
61
62
63
64
Sae !How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 38 and 38.
66
1988
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*54.JaJcs of retail
"TtirislBOoi;
62
64
65
66
67 1968
Se& 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk j ' j identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.
19
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
I Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.
20
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Treasury bill rate (percent)
bond yields (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields percent
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.
21
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
bed
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
f
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(percent-inverted scale)
e, persons unemp
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
01. Bus.
Plant
Q lann. rate, fill, doi.)
505. Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr.
HI
expend, pirate, bii. doi.
JSL. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
LJ
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories (bil. doi.]
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. doi.]
1343
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk p] identifies series on "short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
22
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to
PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*62. labor cost per unit of output,
. (index: 1957-59=100)
_ . A
85-
3ZL MONEY AND CREDIT
100
Outstanding Debt
80
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
604080"
*72. Com. and ind. loans outstanding, weeklyreporting large com. banks (bil. doi.)
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages
80 »
*67. Bank rates on short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)
"
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
1948
49
50
51
52
S»'e 'Huw to %£?j"t Charts 1 and 2 " pap,?--*
53
54
55
56
S?
53
A s t e r i s k ;" idmtifif.? senss on 'short !i'?i
M3
CJ
6U
o
62
r
63
64
I'^rpriT *^n .,! *h ^, s8!'s , are .s.iown on pap
/
65
66
67
1S6
42.
!23
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
:. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
2H. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
b. Official settlements basis
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SH. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948
49
(July)
P
50
51
52
53
(Aug.)
T
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
25
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
2m.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
T
1948
49
50
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
26
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued |
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SIH. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
80 n
706050-
403087—
65433-
2-
1O-1
65-
32-
1J
5432-
I
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
27
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
[Nov.) (Oct
P
T
tput to capacity, mfgv Q [percent)
1
1
f^S
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
28
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued 0
U.S. Series Under Consideration-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.
P
T
.22
job openings unfilled to
of oersons unemoloved
total rental housing, Q (percent)
5- 1
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
29
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Industrial Production Indexes
(1957-59=100)
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on page 46.
60
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart IB
bed
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1967
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Consumer Price Indexes
(1957-59-100)
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
Current data for these series are shown on page 47.
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
g
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
240-1
Stock Price Indexes
(1957-59=100)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 48.
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
. (Hours)
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Formation of Business
Enter prises
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
(2)
1965
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs l
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
(2)
*38. Index of net 13. Number of new
business formation business incorporations
(1957-59 = 100)
(Number)
January
February
March
U.I
41.2
41.3
522
549
528
4.0
4.1
4.2
243
248
237
1.4
1.4
1.4
106.5
106.6
106.1
16,784
16,854
17,131
April
May
June
41.0
41.1
41.0
535
533
548
4.0
4.1
4.4
237
224
224
1.5
1.4
1,4
104.7
105.4
106.2
16,664
16,580
17,017
July
August
September
41.0
41.1
41.0
541
537
529
4.1
4.3
4.5
231
248
218
1.5
1.6
1.4
106.5
105.7
106.1
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
41.2
41.4
41.4
547
544
563
4.5
4.8
4.9
209
212
206
1.3
1.3
1.4
105.5
106.1
106.9
16,994
17,606
17,625
41.5
570
600
589
4.9
4.9
5.1
222
219
182
1.2
1.2
1.1
109.1
109.6
109.6
St> 18,087
17,451
17,266
April
May
June
41.5
41.4
41.3
522
513
567
4.9
5.1
|£>5.2
§t>i79
1.2
1.1
1.3
107.6
106.8
106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
July
August
September
41.2
41.4
41.4
542
543
509
4.7
5.1
4.9
230
196
183
1.7
1.1
1.1
104.8
103.9
102.7
16,074
16,343
15,764
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
41.3
41.3
41.0
533
530
524
5.1
4.8
4.6
186
194
212
6> 1.1
1.2
1.3
103.3
100.6
101.4
16,233
16,206
16,583
41.0
40.3
40.4
534
519
497
4.6
4.3
4.1
203
242
256
1.4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
April
May
June
40.5
40.3
40.3
474
448
487
4.2
4.6
4.6
263
234
225
1.5
1.4
1.4
104.0
105.7
109.0
16,760
17,627
17,799
r40.4
r40.7
p40.7
484
487
P471
r4.2
P4.3
(NA)
265
211
200
1.6
Pl.3
(NA)
108.4
§£>> 110.5
(MA)
16,072
17,678
(MA)
July
August
September
41.4
fC>4i.6
fc>
185
186
'*
16,844
16,901
17,136
October
November .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by G£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[[£>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
2
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
New Investment Commitments
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. doL)
94. Index of
*10. Contracts 11. Newly ap. proved capital
construction
and orders for
contracts, total plant and equip- appropriations,
1,000 manufacvalue
ment
turing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction . 7. New private
contracts, com- nonfarm housing
mercial and in- units started1
dustrial buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space) (Ann.rate,thous.)
*29. Index of
new private
housing units authorized by local2
building permits
(1957-59=100)
1965
January
February
March
21.27
21.13
21.71
137
140
141
4.72
4.67
4.84
5.'03
3.96
3.80
4.02
52.94
54.89
54.41
1,384
1,418
1,429
112.3
108.2
109.9
April
May
June
22.04
20.99
21.31
152
145
139
4.98
5.02
4.81
5*.51
4.08
4.07
4.09
57.74
57.52
57.72
1,432
1,461
1,476
106.2
109.7
109.9
Juiy
August
September
22.20
21.51
22.16
149
139
147
5.16
4.90
5.15
5^62
4.35
4.16
4.15
56.68
52.00
62.97
1,484
1,382
1,453
108.9
108.4
104.1
October
November
December
1966
January.
February
March
22.^2
22.39
23.40
147
141
153
5.13
5.05
5.35
6.'ll
4.25
4.32
4.58
60.55
61.74
64.13
1,438
1,443
1,544
109.8
112.9
114.0
23.58
23.74
24.89
152
157
158
5.46
5.71
5.66
6.*34
4.45
4.58
4.59
62.29
|jn>70.42
67.99
1,403
1,381
1,400
rill. 9
r!06.4
rl!2.1
April
May
June
24.20
24.28
24.59
161
156
147
5.91
5.77
5,57
|fi>> 6.' 69
4.79
4.84
4.75
68.28
64.00
65.85
1,356
1,232
1,161
r!05.3
r97.4
r84.7
24.37
23.51
g>25.27
147
139
146
g> 5.09
4.91
63.54
63.52
64.40
1,061
1,088
1,020
rS2.1
r75.2
r65.3
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
24.24
23.03
23.96
139
130
133
5.76
5.52
5.45
5. *96
4.82
4.65
4.60
54.76
64.42
60.21
824
956
910
r63.4
r63.4
r67.1
22.07
22.33
22.06
126
143
149
5.40
5.34
5.50
5.68
4.54
4.24
4.32
49.09
57.84
56.14
1,079
1,132
1,067
83.1
78.9
April
May
June
22.23
23.86
24.26
138
154
164
5.37
5.55
4.44
4.61
4.79
59.04
53.16
64.03
1,099
1,254
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
r4.85
r5.05
p4.64
55.29
63.00
62.01
rl,356
rl,377
pl,427
r99.4
p!02.3
July
August
September
July
August
September
r23.66
r23.36
p22.6l
6.10
5.87
g> 6.28
149
rl65
g> 168
5^97
P5.45
•5.82
r5.72
r6.14
P5.72
(NA)
4.81
81.9
96.4
October
November . . . .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by[B>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). current low values are indicated by
Bi>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
2
High value (l,833) was reached in October 1963.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.
34
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
20. Change in
26. Production
*31. Change in
business invenbook value of
book value of
materials, perterials, percent of
tories after valmanufacturing
manufacturers'
cent of compacompanies reportuation adjustinventories of
and trade invennies reporting
ing higher inven1
ment, all induscommitments 60
materials and
tories, total
tories
tries
days or longer®
supplies2
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting)
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries,®
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Percent reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
+10! 6
+12.6
+3.8
+14.9
61
62
57
+1.0
+0.4
+2,5
65
65
68
68
72
66
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
April
May
June
+8*8
+8.8
+8.4
+7.8
61
59
56
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
67
65
62
72
70
66
+0.84
+0.50
+0.58
July
August
September
+9^4
+11.5
+12,2
+2,3
54
58
57
+0.7
+1.4
+3.1
62
63
61
62
64
62
+0.38
+0.32
+1.24
October
November . . .
December
..
+9.9
+6,3
+10.2
+19.4
47
49
49
+0.9
+1.0
+2.0
63
63
63
60
66
72
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
+8.1
+11.7
+13.1
49
47
52
+0.9
+1.2
+0V8
68
67
68
74
+9.9
g>86
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
April
May
June
+14. Oi
+12.8
+17.7
+16.9
51
53
54
+3.8
+3.4
+4.0
69
70
72
82
75
69
+1.49
+1.36
+1.70
July
August
September
+11.4
+13.6
+15.9
+9.6
58
58
54
+1.1
+5.4
+3.3
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1.34
+0.64
|> +2.30
+18,6
+17.6
fj> +20.3
58
57
56
+1.4
+2.0
+1.6
E> 75
73
70
70
64
57
+0.79
-0.21
+0.24
+7.1
+12.5
+2.3
+3.8
47
43
46
+2.2
-1.0
-0.3
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.99
-0.30
-1.07
+0.5
+3.1
+0.9
r-4.2
37
39
42
+0.6
-1,1
-1.0
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.04
+0.96
+1.21
p+1.5
r+3.9
p+4,6
' (HA)
40
43
45
r~0.8
p+0.8
(NA)
61
66
61
41
43
44
r+0.52
r-0.10
p+0.41
1966
January
. .
February . . .
March
. ...
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
§E>+18!5.
April
May
June
July
August
September
....
,
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by [J>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
K>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
2
35
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Sensitive Commodity
Economic Process
Prices
.(1957-59 = 100)
Profits and Profit Margins
Stock Prices
*19. Index of stock
*23. Index of industrial materials prices© prices, 500 common
stocks ©
Year
and
month
1965
January .
February
March..
PRICES, COSTS , AND PROFITS
(1941-43 = 10)
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes
(Ann. rate, bil. dol )
22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
(Percent)
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(Cents)
(1957-59 = 100)
110.7
113.2
86.12
86.75
86.83
43.7
13.0
9.6
103.0
103.0
103.1
April
May
June
116*7
116.9
115.3
87.97
89.28
85.04
44.6
13.1
9.3
103.5
103.7
104.5
July .
August
September
114.6
115.2
114.8
84.91
86.49
89.38
44.8
13.0
9.4
* »«
October
November
December
115.0
115,5
117.1
91.39
92.15
91.73
47.7
13.5
9.5
103.2
103.6
104.4
120.5
122.9
g>*123.5
93.32
92.69
88.88
49.2
|O 13.5
SD> 9.8
105.1
105.1
105.1
April
May
June
121.5
118.3
49.2
13.2
9.3
118.4
91.60
86.78
86.06
104.5
105.0
104.7
July
August
September
118. 8
111.7
108.9
85.84
80.65
77.81
|D>49.4
13.0
9.2
...
104.6
103.9
October
November
December
106.3
105.9
105.8
77.13
80.99
81.33
49.3
12.6
9.0
103.7
102.7
102.8
January
February
March
106.8
105.2
102.5
84.45
87.36
89.42
46.5
12.0
...
8,5
...
April
May
June
100.1
99,6
99.8'
90.96
92.59
91*43
46.5
11.9
. *.
8.2
98.3
98.1
97.8
93.01
94.49
110.6
.. .
1966
January
February
March
...
»•»
...
104.6
104.2
103.5
t> 105.2
...
1967
July
August
September
October
November
December
1
97.3
fc>.95.8l
2
...
...
(HA)
(HA)
(MA)
101.5
101.0
100.6
100.8
100.3
99.8
rlOO.2
r99.6
p99.1
94, 92
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by fi>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39. 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[FD>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
2
Average for October 19, 20, and 23.
Average for October 20, 23, and 24.
36
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
MONEY AND CREDIT
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change *113. Net change 112. Change in
85. Change in
total U.S. money in morgage debt in consumer inbusiness loans
supply
held by fin. inst. stallment debt
and life insurance companies1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current liabilities of business failures 2
(Mil. dol.)
1965
January
February
March
+9.60
+9.60
+7.44
+2.28
+3.00
+2.28
+20.53
+18.97
+21.13
+7.38
+7.16
+7.70
+9.90
+12.67
+11.34
62,100
84.54
107.57
146.29
April
May
June
+7. SO
+5.28
+9.72
+3.72
0.00
+6.72
+20.56
+19.88
+22.94
|£> +8.94
+7.87
+7.14
+7.68
+10.38
+10.09
69,232
79.51
139.09
135.66
July
August
September
+9.72
+10,80
+10.32
+5.16
+5.88
+5.88
+20.35
+21.44
+22.01
+8.69
+7.67
+8.23
+14.12
+5.39
+7.87
64,688
120,64
128.98
108.56
October
November
December
+13.32
+3.52
+9.60
+8.76
+3.60
+7.92
+20.93
+21.79
+21.98
+7.44
+8.39
+7.61
+7.45
+6.96
+5.30
67,836
85.67
66.65
128,06
+6.48
+4.56
+9.12
+7.92
+2,88
+6.36
+23.81
+22.72
+22.82
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+14.10
+6.24
+8.76
66,924
111.67
94.59
98.73
+12.36
+4. 80
+7.80
+9.24
-2.16
+2.88
+20,80
+17.69
+15.18
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+8.50
+9,58
+17.70
|> 77,784
106.93
92.41
111.23
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment loans3
(Percent)
1.77
1.71
1.74
,1*.83
.1.83
1*.65
1966
January .
February
March
...
April
May
June
July
August
September
+3.72
+5.16
+3.36 •
-4.92
+1.44
+2,88 (
+12.38
r+12.6?
r+11.34
+6.77
+7*22
+5.70
6>+21.11
r+3.28
r+0.29
56,320
62.84
159.29
128.77
October
November
December
-0.72
-0.72
+5.52
-2.76
0.00
+2.16
+10.15
+10.07
+7.14
+4.56
+5.33
+3.85
+5.93
+2.63
+0,14
50,524
126.02
116.90
194.09
+7.68
+14.16
B> +15.00
-0.72
+8.40
+11.16
+14.11
+12.11
+11.95
+3.36
+2.59
+3.17
+6.01
+0.86
+6.83
r57,508
113.61
111.23
106. 87
+11.64
+15.80
+19.34
+2.56
+2.32
+3.50
+9.25
+1.63
.+8.16
r63,220
110. 80
93.00
87,20
+12.95
p+22.84
(M)
+2.70
+4.13
(IA)
+16.46
-9.44
p-2.34
1.73
1.78
l!?6
l!?6
1.79
l!?5
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
+5.64
+13.08
+14.28
+13.44
14-12.96
p+6.36
-2.76
f£> +12.48
+11,64 ;
+11.52
r+8.04
p+1.32
(HA)
64,15
98.29
93.10
l!82
1.90
1.72
l.*65
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised: "p", preliminary: "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
2
High value (24.02) was reached in October 1963.
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.
3
High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963
37
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies
511. Man-hours
301. Nonagricul- 46. Index of
help-wanted ad- in nonagricultural
tural job openestablishments
vertising in
ings unfilled
newspapers
(Thous.)
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
(1957-59=100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Revised2
1965
January
February
March
268
267
270
, 137
145
148
123*04
123.75
124.24
59,484
59,778
60,048
65,841
65,863
66,150
4.8
5.0
4.7
3.3
3.3
' 3.2
2.7
2.6
2.5
April
May
June
279
285
280
143
145
146
124.16
124.74
124.78
60,186
60,453
60,692
66,109
66,169
66,582
4.8
4.6
4.6
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.4
July
August
September
285
313
338
145
152
160
125.17
125.97
125.94
60,928
61,132
61,319
67,061
66,961
67,017
4.5
4.4
4.4
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
October
November
December
354
359
378
168
181'
186
126.63
127.78
128.51
61,553
61,933
62,319
67,197
67,681
67,950
4.3
4.1
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.0
1.9
1966
January
February
March
392
403
428
123.70
129.80
130.62
62,503
62,889
63,296
68,266
68,186
68,153
3.9
3,7
3.8
2.6
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.9
April . .
May . .
June
430
425
421
189
185
184
130.22
130.23
131.54
63,427
63,616
64,069
68,343
68,351
68,749
3.7
3.9
3.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
July
August
September
420
426
|>438
186
189
189
131.40
132.09
131.86
64,180
64,345
64,394
68,920
69,206
69,309
3.9
3.8
3.7
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
October
November
December
433
417
406
193
194
•193
132.63
133.28
133.32
64,694
65,014
65,251
69,420
70,005
69,882
g>3;5
E> 22.1
-°
3.7
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.7
1967
January
February
March
.. .
393
374
364
189
190
184
134.24
133.68
133.77
65,564
65,692
65,749
70,240
70,247
69,892
3.7
3.7
3.6
2.3
2.4
2.6
April
May
June
353
350
347
181
174
171
133.13
132.97
133.91
65,653
65,639
65,903
70,020
69,637
70,420
3.7
3.8
4.0
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
2.0
337
352
p378
169
180
pi 85
_
133.68
ft>134.89
P134.76
r 65, 939
f£>*66,2!6
p66,100
70,633
70,726
|> 70,949
3.9
3.8
4.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.0
1.8
July
August
September
184
191
g> 201
1.7
g> 1.6
1.7
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by [jt>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
^See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
38
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49. Gross national product
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1965
January
February
March
Comprehensive Income
Comprehensive Production
*50. Gross na- *47. Index of intional product dustrial producin 1958 dollars tion
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*816. Manufacturing and
trade sales
(Mil. dol.)
57. Final sales *54. Sales of re(series 49 minus tail stores
series 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
662! 7
6oi*.5
138,8
139.6
140.9
519.2
519.3
522.5
136.7
138.0
139,2
76,867
76,558
78,734
652^6
22,936
23,076
22,856
April
May
June
675 *4
609^7
141.0
141,8
143.1
524*6
530.6
535.1
138.2
139.9
140.9
78,330
78,643
78, 805
666^5
22,849
23,317
23,322
July
August
September
690.0
620.7
144.3
144.9
144.1
538.1
540.3
555.2
141.7
142.8
143.2
80,776
79,685
79,610
680*,6
23,668
23,585
23,753
October
November
December
70S! 4
634! 4
145.5
146.7
149.0
550,8
556,0
561,4
145.2
146.9
148.7
80,655
82,214
83,479
69^5
24,330
24,647
24,704
725^9
645.4
150,6
152.4
153.7
563.7
567.4
572,3
149.4
151.5
153.4
84,727
84,530
86,991
716*6
25,081
25,049
25,536
April
May
June
736^7
649 ".3
153*9
155.3
156.5
574.7
576*1
581.1
154.0
155.0
156.8
85,455
85,426
86,957
722*,6
24,949
24,475
25,394
July
August
September
748! i
654^8
157.2
158.0
157.7
584.7
589.1
594.1
156.9
158.5
159.5
86,678
86,995
86,775
737^4
25,362
25,572
25,703
762*1
66l".i
158.9
158.6
K> 3-59.0
597.5
602.1
605*0
160.5
161.3
162.1
87,066
86,699
87,875
743.*6
25,550
25,610
25,368
7663
660!?
158.1
156.4
156.4
610.4
612.6
615.6
163.3
162.4
162.7
87,386
86,299
87,458
75f!2
25,687
25,470
•25,739-
775*1
664*.7
156.3
155.6
155.5
616,5
618,2
622.6
162.2
161.5
162.4
86,833
87,611
88,549
774^6
25,918
25,897
26,544
|>.p78iu
r26,444
r26,558
|£>p26,688
1966
January
February
March
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
jj>p796;i.. •|>p6?L*6
r!56.5
rl57.8
pl56,3
r627*0
rl63.4
r631.5 |>rl65.2
$>p633.5 ^ pl65.1
r 88, 935
|>p39,329
(HA)--
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to cofitain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series' preceded by
erisk ((*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short-list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
an asterisk
39
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ®
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities®
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100) (1957-59 = 100)
1965
January . .
February
March
54.28
55.09
55.53
April
May
June
56.37
56.88
57. 45
July
August.
September .
57.83
58.15
59.38
October
November
December
60.66
61.44
62.53
MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank
Reserves
Money Market Interest Rates
93. Free
reserves ©
114. Treasury
bill rate ©
116. Corporate bond
yields £)
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields® bond yields ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
15. "26
101.9
101.9
102.0
101.8
101.8
101.8
+106
+36
-75
3.83
3.93
3.94
4.45
4.45
4.49
4.H
4.16
4.15
3,06
3.09
3.18
16.*35
102.1
102.3
102.5
102.1
102.4
103.0
-105
-180
-182
3.93
3.90
3.81
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.15
4.14
4.14
3,15
3.17
3.24
17.' 30-
102.5
102.7
102.7
103.1
103.2
103.2
-174
-134
-144
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.57
4.66
4.71
4.15
4.19
4.25
3.27
3.24
3.35
18^38
102.8
103.2
103.2
103.4
103.7
104.1
-146
-83
-2
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.70
4.75
4.92
4.28
4.34
4.43
3.40
3.46
3.54
19.33
103.5
103.8
104,0
104.4
104.9
105.0
-44
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
5.09
5.33
4.43
4.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
20.56
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.5
105.6
-268
-352
-352
4.61
4.64
4.54
5.38
5.55
5.67
4.55
4.57
4.63
3*56
3.65
3.77
jj> 20.77
105.2
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.4
106.4
-362
-390
-368
4.86
4.93
5.36
5.81
6.04
6.14
4.75
4.80
4.79
3.95
4.12
4.12
20.72
105.3
105.5
105.5
106.3
106.2
106.2
8> 5.39
5.34
5.01
6.04
6,11
5.98
4.70
4.74
4.65
3.94
3.86
3.86
20.39
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
f236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
p!9*.82
106.0
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
+175
+269
+297
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4.76
4.86
3.60
3.89
3.96
(NA)
106.0
106.3
g>106.5
+272
r+298
p+275
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6.30
B> 6 *33
1966
January
February
March .
63.80
65.11
66.76
April
May
June
68.25
69.61
71.31
July
August
September
72.*65
73.29
75.59
October . ..
November
December
76.38
76.17
76.42
g> -431
-222
-165
1967
January
February
March
75.43
75.13
74.06
April
May
June
74.02
74.97
76.18
July
August
September . .
r76.71
r76.62
|>P77.02
106.8
106.8
g> 107.1
.
4.86
4.95
8>4.9S
4.02
3.99
|£>4.12
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V mdicates'revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
40
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Investment Expenditures
Inventories
*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures1
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Percent)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1965
January
February
March
1.2
1.1
April
May
June
1.1
65. Manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods,
book value
(Bil. dol.)
112.10
112.42
113.66
22.36
22.43
22.51
63.12
62.73
62,87
114.39
115.09
115.74
22.29
22.36
22.34
52.75
64.81
62.89
65.27
116.70
117.71
117.91
22.55
22.53
22.61
0.9
0.9
0.9
55.* 35
65.74
67.47
69.94
118.43
119.28
120.90
22.66
22.86
23.14
1966
January .
February .
March
0.8
0.8
0,8
58,00
70.32
69.74
72.67
121.57
122.54
123.63
- 23.45
23.62
23.81
April
May
June
0.8
0.7
0.6
60.10
71.34
70.52
72.01
124.70
126.18
127.58
23.84
24.07
24.14
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.25
73.57
73.39
74.39
128.71
130.04
130,84
24.50
24.67
24.88
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
0.7
0.6
0.6
f£> 62! 80
74.18
73.84
74.72
132.39
133.86
135.55
25.08
25.54
26.00
0.6
0.6
0.6
61*. 65
70.44
69.50
68.85
136.59
136. 78
137.09
26.40
26.67
26.83
61.50
66.79
67.59
68.30
137.35
137.43
r!37.08
27.13
t£> 27.28
27.00
.a62.50
r70.20
p69.28
(NA)
r!37.40
r27.20
p27.27
49.00
60.01
60.66
63.24-
1.1
1.0
1.1
50^35
July
August
September
0.9
1.0
1,0
October
November
December
T. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
g>
0.6
*>g:i
0.6
0.6
0.6
,
P13
^ S?
(NA)
a62.65
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Series is discontinuous because of the exclusion of data on expenditures for Construction of public utilities beginning with
January 1967', therefore, the high value indicated refers only to the later segment.
41
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
bed
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March..
MONEY AND CREDIT
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs
Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages
Outstanding Debt
68. Labor cost (cur.
dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
(Dollars)
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business 1
loans, 35 cities®
118. Mortgage yields,
residential®
(Percent)
(Percent)
4.*97
5.45
5.45
5.45
4^99
5.45
5.45
5.44
5.00
5.44
5.45
5.46
5*27
5.49
5.51
5.62
5.*55
5.70
(NA)
6.00
5^82
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6^30
6.51
6.58
6.63
t> 6*31
^ (HA)
|D>6,8!
6.77
0.663
96,8
98,8|
98.7
60,069
60,666
61,308
44,175
45,205
46,170
April . . .
May
June...
0.665
98.6
93.7
98.6
62,053
62,709
63,304
46,793
47,497
48,764
July..
August
September
0.66*5
98.6
99.0
99.7
64,028
64,684
65,370
49,129
49,840
50,478
October
November
December
0.663
100.2
100.1
99.7
65,990
66,689
67,323
50,946
51,346
52,174
99.3
99. B
99.9
67,920
68,458
69,107
53,255
53,747
54,522
100.6
100.5
100.9
69,638
70,131
70,680
55,118
56,134
57,874
100. B
101.7
102.4
71,244
71*846
72,321
59,380
r 59, 014
59,349
102.5
103*4
103.3
72,701
73,145
73,466
59,879
60,010
59,732
0.711
104. B
105.3i
105.7'
73,746
73,962
74,226
60,754
60,525
61,167
6^13
B> °-713
105.4
106.0
106. B
- 74,439
74,632
74,924,
62,407
61,898
63,341
5^95
r!06.6
.
. fl07,2
:f£>.plOS.l
75,149
|O 64,352
62,944
p63,309
5*94
1966
January
February
March. .
0.670
April
May
June
0,679
July
August
September
0/667
October
November
December
0.693
1967
January
February
March.
April
May .:
June
July
August
September
(HA)
:
v^S
6.62
6.46
6.35
6.29
6.44
;
6.5r
:
6.53
6.60 .
6,63:4
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by [f>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). current low values are indicated by
[j£>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Prior to 1967 data are based on 19 cities and refer to tne last montn of the quarter.
42
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Major
PRICES, COSTS,
Economic Process AND PROFITS
Minor
Comprehensive
Economic Process Retail Prices
81. Index of consumer prices ©
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Foreign Trade and Payments
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
(Mil.dol.)
86. Exports, ex- 861. Manufacturcluding military ers' new orders
aid shipments, for export, durable
goods except mototal
tor vehicles and
parts ®
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
862. Index of
export orders,
nonelectrical
machinery
87. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
1965
108.9
108.9
109,0
-BIB
-834
+28.5
+16.7
+878.0
1,227, -5
1,622.7
2,738.9
603
729
694
228
235
242
1,199.0
1,606.0
1,860.9
+199
+239
June
109.3
109.6
110,1
+595.0
+502.7
+386.5
2,406.3
2,299.3
2,234.7
720
718
899
238
241
238
1,811.3
1,796.6
1,848.2
July
August
September
110.2
110.0
110.2
-457
+207
+557.7
+503.6
+433.3
2,299.5
2,328.9
2,291.3
829
785
722
241
245
231
1,741.8
1,825.3
1,858.0
October
November
December
110.4
110.6
111.0
-259
-916
+464.5
+437.5
+451.1
2,349.3
2,378.1
2,362.2
705
891
984
228
234
233
1,884.8
1,940.6
1,911.1
January
February
March
111.0
111.6
112.0
-651
-443
+324.0
+366.1
+501.2
2,271.6
2,371.2
2,568.9
852
849
904
237
201
227
1,947.6
2,005,1
2,067.7
April
-3122
-175
June
112.5
112.6
112.9
+249.9
+348.3
+354.4
2,358.8
2, 410. d
2,489.4
749
976
1,078
195
217
217
2,108.9
2,062.5
2,135.0
July
August
September
113.3
113.8
114.1
-165
+861
+250.7
+339.0
+234.4
2,455.4
2,451.6
2,534.2
805
826
1,059
201
199
200
2,204.7
2,112.6
2,299.8
October
November
December
114.5
114.6
114.7
-419
-18
+319.7
+299.8
+184.6
•2,580.7
2,486.1
2,415.8
865
785
1,200
240
235
225
2,261.0
2,186.3
2,231.2
January
February
March
114.7
114.8
115.0
r-538
r-1,827
+324.6
r+396.8
r+384.3
~2,620.2
r2,600.9
r2, 569,0
891
833
905
234
196
252
2,295.6
2,204.1
2,184.7
April
r-512
r-814
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
r+435.3
r+426.1
r+355.2
r2,659.3
r2,544.7
r2,583.4
772
1,029
1,043
215
220
218
2,224.0
2,118.6
2,228,2
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
(NA)
(MA)
r+352.0
r+446.6
+416.7
r2,587.4
2,560.7
2,631.6
r875
p841
(M)
r219
p228
(HA)
2,235.4
r2, 114.1
2,214.9
January ...
February
March
.
..
April
May
1966
May
1967
May
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement: Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p" f preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
43
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Other Selected U.S. Series— Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Federal Government Activities
95. Federal
84. Federal
surplus (+)
cash surplus (+)
or deficit(-), or deficit (-)1
national income and product account
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
Revisec?
1965
83. Federal 82. Federal
101. National 91. Defense
cash receipts cash payments defense pur- Department obchases, curligations, total
from1 the pub- to the public
rent dollars
lic
(Ann. rate,
hil.dol.)
3
Revised
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dot.)
99. New
90. Defense
Department ob- orders, defense
ligations,
products indus.
procurement
(Mil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
92. Military
prime contract
awards to
U.S. business
firms and
institutions
(Mil.dol.)
2
Revised
January
February
March
+r. 5
+0,6
120 3
119.7
48*. 4
4,278
3,839
4,624
1,005
700
1,355
2.37
2.44
2.46
2,097
1,846
2,451
April
May
June
+4.9
-3^9
125! 3
129*2
49.2
4,593
4,630
4,520
1,444
1,402
1,254
3.24
2.46,
2.58
2,843
2,150!
2,3901
July
August
September
-3*. 2
-2*9
124.6
127 !*5
50.3
4,258
5,223
5,276
1,128
1,741
1,732
2.62
2.81
3,45
2,313
2,775
2,419
-o*.4
-s.'o
126.9
134*9
* ••
5 2. 4
4,962
4,396
5,669
1,733
1,212
1,882
3.28
2.57
2.53
2,790
2,995
2,988
+2*. 2
-12.8
133^6
146*4
55 a
5,100
5,179
5,879
1,639
1,736
1,904
3.40
3.04
3.38
2,940
- 2,850
2,913
April
May
June
+3.2
+5*6
148*. 4
143*4
5B.4
6,444
5,447
7,084
2,109
1,620
2,415
3.30
2.91
3.68
3,359
3,061
3,724
July
August
September
-0.7
-9,9
149.0
158.9
63.0
4,998
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,866
3.50
3.16
4.67
4,016
3,170
3,530
-3.3
-0,9
153*. 5
154*. 4
65.6
6,059
5,989
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3.31
2.73
3.36
3,396
3,252
3,501
-11*9
+1.7
156.7
155.0
70/2
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
2.85
3*33
3.24
3,338
3,849
2,984
-14.*?
-rl',6
154*1
152*. 5
72.5
6,211
7,896
r7,170
1,715
2,608
r2,330
3.27
3.86
4.20
2,920
4,121
3,626
154*0
173*5
P73.*9
5,357
(NA)
1,435
(NA)
r3.64
r2.66
P3.56
r3,6lO
P3,727
(NA)
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
(ii)
-19*5
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", snticipatea; and "NA", not available.
•"•Beginning with 2d quarter 1966, data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for depositing withheld and OASI taxes.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
44
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
UNCLASSIFIEI) INDICATORS
UnclassifieiJ Indicators
850. Ratio,
output to
capacity
manufacturing
851. Ratio,"
inventories to
sales, manufacturing and
trade
(Ratio)
(Percent)
1965
January
February .
March
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments,
manufacturers'
durable goods
'853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer goods
(1957-59:100)
(Ratio)
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
855. Ratio,
! 856. Ratio,
1 857. Vacancy
nonagricultural
average earnings rate in total
job openings
rental housing
of production
unfilled to
workers in
persons
manufacturing to
unemployed
consumer prices
(Ratio)
(1957-59:100)
(Percent)
Revised1
1.4-6
88.5
1.47
1.44
3*01
3.07
2.98
107.1
108.0
107.4
0.054
0.076
0.072
0,077
111.7
112.6
112.4
112.6
112.4
7.7
112.4
April
May
June
88. 4
1.46
1.46
1.47
3.04
3.13
3.15
109.2
110.8
111.0
0.052
0.078
0.084
0.081
July
August
September
88,5
1,44
1.48
1.48
3.02
3.12
3.23
112.4
112.5
112.5
0.064
0.085
0.096
0.104
112.8
112.7
113.2
7.2
...
October
November
December
88.6
1.47
1,45
1.45
3,28
3.23
3.16
115.4
116.4
117.3
0.060
0.111 ,
0.118
0.126
113.6
113.5
113.0
7.6
...
January
February
March
90.6
1*43
1.45
1.42
3.21
3.28
3.25
118.9
119.1
120.0
0.053
0.133
0.145
0.150
113.4
113.7
113.2
7.5
...
April
May
June
90.9
1.46
1.48
1.47
3.37
3.40
3.50
120.2
122.0
122.4
0.057
0.154
0.147
0.143
113.5
113.7
113.7
6.9
...
July
August . . . .
September.. . .
90,6
1.48
1.49
1.51
3.49
3.54
3.64
124.7
125.4
126.8
0.057
0.144
0.145
0.154
113.8
113.8
114.3
6.8
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.67
3.67
3.62
125.8
126.0
127.0
0.150
0.066
6.9
0.141
114.1
114.0
113.9
1.56
1.58
1.57
3.64
3.68
3.58
126.8
128.5
126.3
0.073
0.139
0.130
0.131
114.3
115,1
114.8
1.58
1.57
1.55
3.73'
3.69
3.74
125.3
124-9
123.6
0.067
0.125
0.121
0.112
114.9
114.9
115.2
rl.55
pi. 54
r3 71
r3 65
p3 81
rl23.0
r!21.9
p!23.4
pO.069
0 112
0.118
pO.119
115.2
115 6
pll5.5
7.6
...
1966
October
November
December
#
89.8
0.154
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
p87.0
f*n&/
vi $J*S
&
SJp83*8
(HA)
6.5
...
6.4
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and M NA" r not available.
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
International Comparisons
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES
Industrial Production Indexes
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial production
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
140
HI
147
147
150
130
129
128
146
146
144
137
139
139
156
155
149
239
239
244
166
169
166
April
May
June
141
142
143
149
150
150
128
129
128
146
148
148
140
139
142
154
154
155
241
238
244
169
175
176
July
August
September
144
145
144
152
154
155
130
129
128
148
148
149
144
144
144
151
153
155
243
240
247
178
176
178
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
146
147
-149
156
158
160
130
130
131
150
150
151
147
147
150
156
154
154
241
244
246
179
184
183
151
152
154
161
163
163
132
131
134
152
152
154
147
150
151
157
156
160
252
251
257
186
188
191
April
May
June
154
155
156
164
163
163
132
130
130
153
153
154
150
150
153
158
157
160
261
265
267
188
196
195
July
August.
September
157
158
158
163
164
166
132
131
130
153
152
154
154
154
156
157
154
155
273
277
279
195
195
203
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
159
159
159
167
168
167
129
128
129
153
152
153
154
156
156
154
153
151
285
291
299
201
201
205
158
156
156
166
166
166
129
129
129
152
153
153
156
153
156
150
149
150
301
300
309
205
210
208
April
May
June
156
156
156
168
167
168
r!30
128
129
r!54
r!53
r!54
153
152
156
149
149
r!49
312
315
323
r211
213
p211
r!56
158
p!56
pl69
(NA)
p!30
(NA)
p!54
(NA)
156
pi 56
154
p!51
323
(NA)
p328
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March
July
August
September
139
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Ger- 128. Japan, in- 127. Italy, index
many, index of dex of industrial of industrial production
industrial pro- production
duction
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflectM series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
46
Table 2B
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March
April . .
May ..
June.
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
Consumer Price Indexes
81. United States,
index of consumer
prices ®
133. Canada,
index of consumer prices®
132. United Kingdom, index of
consumer prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
136. France,
135. West Germany, index of
index of consumer prices© consumer prices®
(1957-59 - 100)
138. Japan, index
of consumer
prices ©
(1957-59 - 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 - 100)
:
yX'1ft;tyy\
yy *iXX ; f ' ; V } f V - " " > : - ;;>:^)^-;; \yr; (*T v / ;
v
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:
;
;: :
?v
: :; :
;
;
:
!^ '"' :;^ U9' ^V'-:'! "b*. ' .5> ' ": .115
'" - " :-/I*- " ;yVyv": :iia9
yyy* *>Xu«
;
'"V yyyi139 -y ; : .iSio::' -^ ':--/ 119 :J;>
'
^m ; -' :>x y- i»
y; y-i^ :. : :. - -115. ! •
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116
yi^r; i * "' ' * '".^9
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yyyyf y»oy /•••£?^vm. -v- • : ;'-!?# ;::v\.;;v\ y;i|5~:; • ' ,y
y;yVyyyi»y
>x
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11^;
y:yr: '- m
"Ba
\ y\ - iis ^ 1::^¥^J-V:-y--:>
->y\y'>>;yy '-f
' ^11^::
; ';>?,. ;.;*«s:
:
yy^ys?;«CT: ^:-:.,\ ^$&.
^ - '3L23H .Vv':7^:"V/Cia«• - • '-* - .116
;
yy*;;^yyi3Jy - * *-\ . -; -, - - --ijt^' ~- ; - ' * o - - ' / ' -:;l^ y. Vyvy-4^: v->;y » > 119
- y;yyy;4iiy ;f::;r--;^p; ::r .\:;: v'is*;' • j^yy^j^r; J;v> ^ 120
^>V: :^$&>
:< ^y
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l
x
, - - ^ * , •--- " >:', !.-
- t 4i*y?>
-;;yHvvai^ ! ' • ' • * -y^ns^
"•*'' ; > * ; •*::*: ii4'- ./r .y,?>y;i??\
:
V
rtfj
x
:
: ;
•liy;c \\i&
;:
;
/;
: ;yy^i ^>V;^v^T»
^
; x y/55PltyyyyyjB
yyr^t ,*-- - " - ;
;
y^=' y^;
5 ;
^ . :> : ' '/126:-
'vll2'
y;^;;y;;?;;jp
;
^';Jf ^
:
;
;\:;y;; \-s|i
;
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
yyyyiir
:
yv ^yyp
{,:;V.:;:t:;;V^: ;/
- ~ ~- \, ', ~ "~
i;
:-
;
f
\:.
V::^- y: v :
:
- -V las: . - Xy}^5^ • \ \ V - rx
".-127^
^ - l&* ^
::'xV,j;/y m
y^;X^y?lfe:f f!
<;y;^»
^ i^^
:
; ;; ; . . '.'. las:' • ^y-1!" •-* ::- -\',1^'
;
;
:
y*/yyt^l yl|y ; ^;;>::v:;ka»; * - - : *• y\ 129- ::-y;iy ^^ Nyy;y :::***:i :
'-,
-
-:* y
y3sjP|y
^r^ySl^; v:: -,: -X ai^.
'-""'• V s -
X -<•,"•.«'•
"- H"^^"*"
•iy>v-y>,:*
•jyyr/y.im
:
<y"y/ : ^..3J4'
yyyy,^yi^
.,, , v - - , ^ ;>— -w^
H^ \rWv-y*??
:\ * • °vj^yy^yC:^ r!/xy^y^:, v "
;XXvy rni:' / ' * ' ' 117 ' ^ - - ' ; : ia-. •^"^y^^ia- ' y;\y \' ; til^y-':;;j37
r-yyvy < ,Mlj •
/r-yu?. ; ^ ^ - -149- • yy t - x m- "; *y: . >. 1^'
•:i^.v-"u*«
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•
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: v;r- • . - 124
;
?. ••,i;>j:r.-'Ly.>-. •:, •{>&•••, > ; -yyyyi^
jt- "Kfrvft:C,fW*r*i
V->y^» •" <^:;v; ,. ; 'fi&as j ^vy ;V^4-;
^Jliy^
^;t^:^^;*:iSi^ ;y>;^;v,::i«:; r|;H:;y\yi^€;;
"v">^..i ittiO''
?^^?lfU*r.
'^*« f > «••> -t • « A'- "< * i %M* ;
;
; :1 ,;\x ;; T;^S^
V:>€yyyyr*f^
' ' : * ' ' ,
October
November
December
' '' " -
•
*^yS^ y ^3
\ y .yyVjat*
>;
;
:yyy^ r'-.^i33
;i :
^ . ^*r; ; m' -- : ^ -; ''^ "l%4- yy: yy-ilt;: : -- *' '*; : m/
- ^vy^x^jim - ',;>. :\-i^ ;V-:y^r:;4|i:: \ , . : . lai5^
v
y : y>y ; aa: :' ^<Xl
1I5~- -' :
' 126> /:'y-y:y:^i3i; ^ iaa-°
r
• • -r
; * y**¥-3 ^
>"--;V" , v , ,V*at3 -'
. -:xv;iB : : ' .. '• . isrt yy/;yyyJJ?^ ' -.
. . m'
-i..yy%a: ^;>v:./v\7ii^' :..>y ;_ '•!» , -;; ^;:y;f|B; > V ; ..^ « - 122
;
:
7;;;\r:^ ! ': .; :
1257 ' -^ : ' • * :;""l:*: Xy ' ^ ' m.
^ :>;:>:•, -'Jstf- :;;;yx ^y& - ; : - 0 - 157 ' \:'yV;;-y^:^; •y- - ' ' y-iaa>r
; /; '--
!
July
August
September
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
f
f |p|!|^V:> '
1
, ,-"
-
-
'
-
,'^-Vv"
' ,
x <-
* s s ^-
^"-\\'
,
:-^:;r:
-7;; y,; ;•»*>;- ; v - ' '*\-»%: :'" :-^X^
~; '
t
yyyycyjfy y , -^ >"" - V-x *""\, N: V *- '
v«".CL-&l^a- ' ,:»'*.•'
^y>\^^^^ y\;
%
-1 " '
fttt'i
^'yyiyi?:-yti§J-^ y^-M.
y ^y ;^:\';ry^y .
y y. \" ^ «-^r*J:%"
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V estimated'
"a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
47
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
ST OCK PRICE INDEXIES
St ock Price Indexe s
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ©
143. Canada,
index of stock
prices ©
(1957-59 = 100)
(x)
(1957-59 = 100)
1
C)
142. United King- 146. France, index
dom, index of
of stock prices @
stock prices ©
(1957-59 = 100)
C1)
(1957-59 = 100)
(l)
145. West Germany, index of
stock prices ®
148. Japan, index
of stock prices ©
147. Italy, index
of stock prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
1
(l)
1
C)
C)
175
185
165
197
ill
186
190
169
163
125
121
126
203
176
176
198
193
193
183
119
133
April
May
June
178
181
172
192
195
184
163
166
159
124
123
117
192
187
183
178
178
170
131
129
122
July....
August. .......
September
172
175
181
175
180
185
154
156
160
113
118
117
181
184
184
163
181
195
119
125
124
October .
November
December
1966
January
February .
March
185
187
186
186
188
183
169
174
' 170
113
112
117
178
174
171
191
204
213
123
123
133
189
188
180
192
191
186
173
178
174
127
123
118
177
180
178
223
230
241
147
153
156
186
176
174
190
182
182
173
179
181
114
110
110
175
168
159
240
243
236
144
143
143
July.
August
September
174
163
158
180
171
162
173
154
152
108
108
102
149
150
154
231
230
226
146
147
145
October
...
November
December
.
1967
January
February
March
156
164
165
158
162
166
150
147
151
101
107
103
151
147
148
224
221
218
149
147
144
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
228
142
141
127
April
May
June..
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
POQ
?T!
?TI
1 9Q
1 "39
1 "3D
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
CjJ
V4
QQ
1
«A
J-PO
1
'J^
-L O
OQT
<J1
OT £
«lP
•nil ^
1 $D
OAQ
<\ri
_ "1 OQ
October . .
November
December
p!92
p!98
pl95
pl!7
•nl Fte
•ncn o
rvl / £\
pl42
January
February .....
Inarch.
Apri 1 .
May
June.
.
.
.
129
ljj>
1 OO
pljy
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only anddonot reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated;
"a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
48
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
M
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—1,000 corporations
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—J 3 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—18 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
OCTOBER 1967
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
June
1967
July
1967
Sept,
1967
Aug.
1967
Nov.
1948
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
26
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
30
3
26
1
17
25
19
14
1
1
1
i
i
i
i
30
0
5
1
2
1
T_
I
1
1
4
1
28
24
1
1
1
2
1
2
"*3
2
30
10
21
10
1
24
0
29
0
26
4
29
0
2
4
2
1
4
1
3
4
7
3
4
4
4
3
18
17
21
19
21
14
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
8
1
1
1
7
1
2
2
1
8
"g
1
9
1
11
'"3
9
21
38
21
* 43
21
52
20
4-5
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
3
1
1
1
5
3
1
Apr.
1957
3
3
2
3
2
IS'
11
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
5
7
1
Feb.
1960
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Jan,
1957
Nov.
1959
LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
...
17
1
7
5
1
3
1
5
1
2
2
4
1
24
4
26
8
25
1
2
1
18
4
1
1
1
1
1
2
11
29
0
24
12
2
1
5
1
1
3
29
0
3
2
1
1
5
1
4
2
7
26
27
22
1
2
1
2
1
29
3
8
7
2
4
4
1
1
1
1
29
3
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months .
5 months
4 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
5
4
8
1
6
8
5
4
2
18
44
3
18
44
21
10
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
8
21
38
2
1
1
2
3
3
6
18
33
1
4
1
2
4
10
2
1
10
4
18
56
21
19
2
6
3
1
3
2
4
21
19
NOTE: All quarterly series are omitted from the distribution. The number of series included varies because some series are not available for all cycles and because
those series which reached a peak during the Korean War are omitted from the 1953 distribution.
50
Chart 2
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(July) (Aug.]
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Percent
9 - m o . span —
1 -mo. span ---od, wkrs., mfg.-21 indus.
r. goods indus.-36 Indus*
capital appropriations-17 indus,
span
B of NY, percent reporting hfctier
1,000 mfg. corp. (1-Q span)
prices, 500 common stacks- 77
Is pnces-13 indus. mils.
D5.
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
msur.-47 areas (inverted)
Stale
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
see 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
51
Chart 2
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
(July) [Aug.]
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
T
(July) [Apr.
P T
(May) (Feb.
P T
Percent
100-i
span— 1-mo. span
prices, fflfrd
054. Sales of retail stores-2
1948
49
50
5.1
63
52
See How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
52
of stores (9-mo. span
Current data for these series are shown on page 56.
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 2
bed
OCTOBER
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1967
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May] (Feb.
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
Percent
ange in total carloadings
Ilions of cars-4-Q span)
SI
W
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
4th Q 1966-4th Q 1967
3d Q 1966-3d Q 1967
3d Q 1967-4th Q 1967
2d Q 1966-2d Q 1967
3d Q 1965-3d Q 1966
fst Q 1967-2d Q 1967
035,036 (June 1967)
D48 (June 1967)
061 (August 1967)
1948
Anticipated
Actual
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
84
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Current data for these series are shown on page 57.
53
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indexes
Dl. Average-workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year
and
month
1965
1-month span
9-month span
Revised1
Revised1
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
OIL Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
January
February
March
50.0
66,7
71.4
83.3
78.6
81.0
48.6
38.9
63.9
77.8
75.0
77.8
88
82
April
May ...
June.
14.3
83.3
42.9
73.8
47.6
61.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
68.1
66.7
68.1
71
82
July
August
September
61.9
47.6
33.3
69.0
64.3
85.7
59.7
41.7
61.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
65
82
October
November
December
71.4
73. B
66.7
95.2
90.5
85.7
61.1
55.6
76. A
81.9
86.1
83.3
59
76
January
February
March
50.0
81.0
42.9
81.0
85.7
38.1
30.6
50.0
84.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
65
76
April
May
June
35.7
54.8
33.3
50.0
45.2
40.5
41.7
50.0
51.4
72.2
58.3
59.7
62
47
July
August
September
19.0
66.7
64.3
23.8
0.0
9.5
50.0
59.7
37.5
- 55.6
44.4
41.7
29
47
October
November
December . . . .
1967
January
February
March
35.7
38.1
9.5
9.5
14.3
14.3
50.0
44.4
55.6
36.1
31.9
27.8
59
35
69.0
4.8
61.9
9.5
9.5
9.5
31.9
38.9
55.6
38.9
41.7
r45.8
53
P47
April
May
June
47.6
26.2
52.4
16.7
p28.6
50.0
58.3
61.1
r55.6
P36.1
p47
(NA)
1966
.
July
August
September
October
November .
December
64.3
73.8
p64.3
r52.8
r59.7
P44.4
(MA)
...
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quartenndexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•'•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
54
Table 4
bed
OCTOBER
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1967
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
Year
and
month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(about 1,000 corpora(13 industrial materials)
stocks (77 industries)® 1
tions)
1-quarter span
1965
January . . .
February. .
March
1-month span
9-mcnth span
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
57
92.2
81. 8
64.3
80.5
58.4
51.9
53.8
30.8
69.2
69.2
76.9
61.5
24.5
57.4
66.0
78.7
78.7
59.6
April
May
June
56
70.8
66.9
0.0
58.4
,72,7
67.5
76.9
53.8
57.7
69.2
53.8
53.8
61.7
59.6
51.1
66.0
61.7
78.7
July
August
September . . . .
57
24.7
79.9
81.2
61.0
59.1
63.6
46.2
42.3
50.0
46.2
46,2
46.2
34*0
38.3
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
October.. .
November
December
60
66.9
70.1
57.1
60.4
67,5
70.1
15.4
34.6
61.5
46.2
38.5
53.8
57,4
44.7
51.1
62.8
91.5
95.7
•
1966
January
February
March
59
74.0
48.7
14,3
51.9
43.5
37,7
61.5
76.9
46.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
36.3
44.7
83.0
91.5
74.5
44.7
April
May
June
59
63.6
3.9
23.4
22.1
11.7
6.5
30.8
42.3
46.2
53.8
30.8
15.4
53,2
45.7
57.4
68.1
76.6
78.7 .
July
August .
September
50
38.3
6.5
3.9
9.7
22.1
20.1
61.5
26.9
0.0
7.7
7.7
7.7
17.0
72.3
80.9
80.9
34.0
34.0
October
November
December
54
25.3
88.3
59.7
47.4
58.4
66.2
19.2
30.8
57.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
36.2
46.8
27.7
23.4
17.0
46.8
January
February
March
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46. $
27.7
8.5
8.5
April
May
June
45
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
•54.3
55*. 3
31.9
44.7
1967
Julv
August
September
... .
(NA)
October
November
December
81.6
30.8
53.8
19.2
•77,6
57.2
2
2
34.0
72.3
60.6
26.9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated bv (u).
•"•Based on 77 components through June 1967
Average for October 19, 20, and 23.
and on 76 components thereafter.
2
55
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
Year
and
month
1965
January.
February
March
D41. Number of employees in
nonagr (cultural. establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
Revised1 ,
Revised1
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)®
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
1-month span
6-month span
83.3
85.4
87.5
72.7
52.3
65.9
81.8
86.4
81.8
63.0
65.2
30.4
80.4
87.0
87.0
72.7
75.0
54.3
87.0
43.5
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
1-month span
9-month span
73.3
78.3
83.3
81.7
75.0
78.3
79.2
70.8
77.1
April
May
June
61.7
66.7
81.7
88.3
90.0
86.7
56.2
70.8
91.7
83.3
83.3
79.2
61.4
79.5
70.5
63.6
JU|y
August
September
88.3
73.3
73.3
90.0
90.0
90.0
81.2
75.0
54.2
87.5
91.7
87.5
50.0
56.8
61.4
65.9
65.9
77.3
80.4
47.8
October
November
December
88.3
91.7
86.7
93.3
88.3
95.0
79.2
83.3
87.5
87.5
89.6
88.6
78.3-
100.0
70.5
70.5
70.5
90.9
90.9
78.3
37.0
95.7
95.7
91.3
1966
January
February
March
81.7
88.3
95.0
95.0
91.7
83.3
70.8
70.8
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
79.5
75.0
72.7
88.6
95.5
93.2
76.1
65.2
60.9
82.6
84.8
78.3
80.0
75.0
64.6
58.3
87.5
70.8
75.0
62.5
70.5
86.4
75.0
95.5
95.5
86.4
43.5
30.4
95.7
78.3
82.6
76.1
65.2
82.6
73.9
April
May
June
93.3
31.7
81.7
73.3
July
August
September
56.7
78.3
35.0
76.7
73.3
73.3
45.8
64.6
58.3
52.1
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.8
60.4
39.6
October
November
December
81.7
76.7
70.0
85.0
65.0
65.0
60.4
50.0
58.3
62.5
47.9
37.5
63.6
63.6
43.5
69.6
54.5
63.6
72.7
72.7
71.7
43.3
43.3
a. 7
55.0
33.3
27.1
39.6
45.8
29.2
25.0
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
29.2
47.7
56.8
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
78.3
47. 8
60.9
87.0
78.3
82.6
41.3
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
a. 7
July
August
September
53.3
60.0
40. 0
71.7
P28.3
43.3
38.3
41.7
P36.7
47.9
29.2
50.0
r60.4
r62.5
P35.4
October
November
December
r33.3
p41.7
50.0
63.6
65.9
75.0
69.6
91.3
95.7
43.5
r84.8
p84.8
r43.5
r67.4
P56.5
i
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 5
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue." page v.
56
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year
and
month
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies) @
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ®
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)®
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)^
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
1965
January
February
March
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
90
'SB
*9G
*84
63*. 2
8^.2 .
+25
April . . .
May . .
June
*88
*88
*88
*84
63.* 2
84! 2
4-20
July
August
September
"as
90
*89
*87
73^7
73.7
4-28
October
November
December
*89
91
*88
*9Q
73.7
89!5
+18
January
February
March . . .
*87
*91
"'85
*89
57*.9
84,2
+2i
April . . .
May
June
*84
*88
*82
*83
(NA)
78.9
+1
July
August
September
*7*2
'si
*68
^ 82
78.9
-50
72
*84
*67
'so
52.6
-91
*78
78.9
p-137
Actual
Anticipated
56.2
65.6
75,0
68.8
83.3
65.6
75.0
84.4
83.3
62.5
83.3
71.9
55.6
37.5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
30.6
41.7
(NA)
44.4
1966
October
November
December
... .
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
....
July
August
September
October
November
December
*82
*81
(MA)
*78
P44.4
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. the "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by © .
57
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data and Direction of Change
1967
Diffusion index components
April
March
February
July r
June
May
September15
August
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGI
(Average weekly hours)
40.5
40.3
(48)
(26)
40.3
(52)
•f
(62)
41.7 4
4,0.3 44.0.2 0
41 5 0
4-0.9
4-1.4 4-
41.9
40.7 _
40.2 441.5
40.8
41.5 0
41.6 440.6
40.3
41.3
40.2 441.5
42.0
40.1 0
40.1 441 1
40.6 o
41.3
41.2
40.1
40.3
41.3
40.6
41.2
4
43.0
39.7 +
40.7 0
40.9 +
38.7 4-
42.9
40.0 __
40.7 +
41.5 0
39.2 4
42.8
39.6 440.9 441.5
39.7
42.3
39.9 -f
41.7
41.1
39.5
42.0
40.0
41.2
41.0
39.4
41.0
38.2
40.2
35.6
42.8
41.1
38.2
40.2
35.5
42.8
40.8
39.4
40.8
36.2
42.5 o
40.6
38.3
40.5
35.9
42.5
4-
41.0
39.0
40.4
35.7
42.6
38.6
41.5 _
42.6 o
41.1 _
37.7 o
38.3
41.2 +
42.6 O
40.9 437.7 4
38.3
41.3
42.6
41.2
37.9
40.3 4-
All manufacturing industries
40.4
(5)
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
..
^
_
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
-
38.6
41.4
42.6
40.9
37.1
4
_
4
o
o
o
+
4
4-
4-
38.5
41.6
43.0
41.0 437.0 4-
4
_
_
4
+
+
0
44-
O
40.4 4-
r40.7
.
(64)
_
O
4
+
•f
44O
44
4O
4
+
._
-f
41.8
39.9
40.2
41.3
40.9
41.3
444.
+
4-
42.1
40.3
41.4
41.0
39.2
4
40.6
38.4
40.6
35.9
42.7
4
38.3
41.5
42.8
40.6
38.4
r42*4
40.0
40.3
41.5
41.1
r41.4
4-
44
44
4
4
«.
+
40.7
(64)
4
4-
43.0
40.2
40.4
41.9
40.9
41.7
r42.3 4r40.4
. r42.8
r41.2 o
r39.4 4
42.4
40.3
42.6
41.2
39.5
r40.8
r39.1
r41.1
r35.8
r42.6
40.6
37.6
41.5
36.0
42.8
38.3
r41.4
r42.7
r41.8
r38.3
O
_
0
(74)
444-
4
4
4
44_
4
38.5
41.6
42.2
41.7
38.5
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
+
!
22,329
4
22,065 +
(39)
(56)
3,427
1,805
3,013
1,434
22,226 +
(50)
+
3,236
1,701
44
2,224
4-
4
3,606
2,020
3,591
1,886
4-
4
4
44
2,106
...
... +
3,266
J
296
+""N
2,108
)
+1
291 ~J
309
-J
404
4
44
586
218
+
4
612
239
+
+
+
4-
633
197
w
...
427
4
4
+
4
315
251
+
...
4
-
p3,968
3,564
~\
+J
--"
429
571
226
4-
598
217
4-, '
4-
4
4-
4
4
4
267
4-
p446
4
4
4
252
4.
(NA)
...
4
4
546
210
3,632
(NA)
o
3,590
~\
+J
p2,258
1,979
4
3,497
4
4
...
4-\
(44)
4
4
...
3,429
3,351
r3,455
pi, 782
3,646
1,994
4
+
+ -S
4
22,607
(60)
(53)
4
4-
r23,358
23,659
24,263
(61)
+
4
4-
(58)
4
2,136
2,247
23,857
(NA)
~\
+f
(NA)
4
p662
P339
(NA)
p299
(NA)
(NA)
4
269
4
299
Q
4
4-
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r : revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
Table 5
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
February
March
April
July
June
May
September
August
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Millions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftt
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments total
Lumber total
Furniture, total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
724
4-
4*
/ Cfc'5
683
4
-,
3*196
3,273
3,362
"* ^
«. <•
714
44,
3, 250
~»
779
4-
793 «
r3,579
rtCfrO
-v.i^O Q
oo3
705
733
6,140
4
4-
4-
4-
4
4-
4-
p787
4-
(NA)
»*»
4*
p5,48B
r5,811
r6,641
O
4.
44
44
4
4-
* «.
**•
4
4
4
4-
« » .
44
7,327
7,209
4
+
-^rie & — >
poo
4-
4
5,911
4
4
4-
4-
.,,
r889
(NA)
/MA"!
{&&}
p3,512
4-.
»
4,
773
4-
4
TfJJ
*i
44-
781
5,799
3,455
4-
4-
44
4>
4
4-
'
4
4
;
4-
4-
4
4
4
i
4-
4
4
4
4
4-f
4
... 4
44-
4-
1
i
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(194H3 = 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
+
i
I
\
! (92)
90.96
4
(76)
(61)
1
92.59 -
4
!
4 i
91.43
;
(74)
93.01
4
!
... 4
4
4
4
... 4
... 4
4 i
4-
... 4
4-
4
4
... 4
... 4
4
4-
... 4
4
!
4 1
+ i
1
4
;
...
4
4
... 4
4
4
4
4
4
!
i
•
... 4
4
4-
... 4
4-
4
4
«
...
4
+
(
4
!
... 4
+
4
.4
4 i
';
... 4
4
4
i
4
4-
'
4
i
i
'
4
44
. . . .
...
...
+
4
...
4
4
... +
4
4
...
4-
... 4
... 4
44
4
... 4
4
... 4-
'
+ i
- !i
. 4-.,-
...
*
5
... 4 |
t
4
4
4-
» •«
I
. . .4-
4
... 4
4
4
4
... 4
... 4-
4
4O
4
,
... 4
4
... 4-
•
... 4-
'.
4-
... 4
4
...
... 4-
4
44
4-
!
«• • 4
4
4
!
4
4
«. i
4
4
4
i
i
r
4
...
...
4
44
4
... 4
i
.j
i
4
'
1
4-
4
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
(57)
4
4-
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
95.81
4
(78)
1 (82)
j
(51)
94.49
i
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
Paper
Publishing
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
89.42
87.36 +
'
i
!
4
4
41
4 I
-I- !
^ s
+ I
4
...
...
4
4
... 4
...
! •
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
^•Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 76 components beginning with July 1967.
1
2
59
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
OCTOBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
February
April
March
June
May
July
OctoberI
September
August
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957- 59=100)
«-
105*2 «.
102.5
100.1
w
99.6 4
—
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
4.
4
4
4
4
4
4
(54)
.459
,064
27,603 4
1,530 4
.150 4
.150
.220
,202
1.628
.202
10.826
.209
.056
(23)
.39a
..062 4
29.301
1.610
.151
,150
.218
.197
1.601 4
.177
10.732
.204
.050 4
99.8
_
:
98.3
_
98.1 „
97.8 -
97.3
(Dollars)
(62)
(23)
.371
.343 *
.063 4
.064 4
26.812 4 28,261 4
1,528 4
1,569
.150
.142
.146
.141 4
.218
.217 4
.192 4
.193 4
1.605 4
1.663 4
.157 4
.159
10.669 4 10.753
.201 4
.201 4
.052
.051 +
(69)
.368
.065
29.016
1.557
.142
.145
.219
.194
1.677
.166
10.721
.214
.051
4
4
4
4
(31)
.366
,065
27*451
1.550
.141
.145
.223
.193
1.646
.152
10.872
.209
,050
4
4
4
4
44
4
(54)
.385
.064
27.195
1,528
.141
.139
.231
.193
1.603
.152
10.971
.200
.052
4
4-
O
(19)
,382
.062
30.174
1.456
.140
.134
.237
.193
1.588
.152
10.971
.195
.050
4
44
O
(27)
-,382
,062
28.421
1.484
.140
.135
.240
.192
1.588
,150
10,949
.184
.049
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
263
(47)
(17)
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (6)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26) .
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19)
Milwaukee (17)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (12).
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)..
Portland (24) ...
San Francisco (7)
Seattle (16)
256
242
(55)
4-
4
4
4-
4
44-
265
225
(55)
(54)
4
4-
•f
4
4-
211 4
4
4
4
4
4
4,
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4-
4
4
4
4.
4.
4
4.
. .
4
4
4
44-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4.
4
4-
44-
4,
4-
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4,
4.
4.
4
4
4
4
4
4
4"
4.
4
4
,,__
4.
4
4
4-
4
4-
4
*
4
4
4.
4
4
4-
4-
4-
(61)
(72)
4
200
4
-+-
4-
4
(34)
44-
4
234-
4
4
4.
4
4
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for October 19, 20, 23.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2
60
bed
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
February
April
March
May
Julyr
June
Septemberp
August
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural establishments
4-
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products ..
Paper and allied products. . . .
Printing and publishing...
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servi-ce and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
65,692
4*
(43)
4-
_
143
524
384
509
'1,091
1,065
_
4.
44-
o
o
44O
"f
4-
44-
624
3,352
4,247 O
3,521 ^_
10,020 o
3,165'i 49,883 4.
2,673 48,700 4.
^
444-f
44-
(40)
146 +
525
379
509
1,073
1 059
i ^8&
1,332
1,363
289 o
344
1,200
72
845
1,226
4«j~
531
674
580
116
403
304
Q
4-
65,653 o
(43)
1 1Q2
1,34-5
1,371
288
347
1,197
73
848
1,243
529
670
585
117
406
309
65,749
-j»
4-.
4~
10,022
3,179
9,946
2,685
8,754
4"
O
44*
~f_
4-
4"
o
6S QO'}
1/7
^07
^7c
4-j-
1 /Q
AQO
/Q^
4-
/Q#
1,049
l OA6
i i$n
1 298
1 042
1 Q/,1 4~
1 AT?
514
4-
1,3/7
_l_
289
343
1,195
73
838
1,232
526
673
^#•3
118
402
307
1 196_^_
4"
7/
1 fU A
a*
•r^AS
J> /U
T»/Qc;
1
285
285
oon
201
7«
T»I n/ A
•j1,UJ51
A'ai
1 J?
ciT/e;
±,
^5
POA
X
Y.rtq rt
r»1
^^A
A7/
4~
4~
1 1Q
rdr
Dop
no
362
oAo
!>oj?
fCr^A
rpjo
A7^
㣥 rtr
WAP
-h
r*^nn
^L AC
3,276
3 T92
/ P67
^ 'WQ
4"
oiv
1 1 87
O4>
^ pqi
J POP
AjxdV-c
q ccc
3 , PP5
Q #7
2 698
8 826
'
i n n^^
p 7^Q
~IC.CC
1 c/L c
(60)
5o4
T on
QAjfS
—.
598
pp*3
•2 PpJ^
J,/C,<CO
'S&G*
/
**
•**
4,<J /I
i
n i *3A
iu,Xj?U
*>A^
1 A 1 9A
T»P 7^ A
-**££ oAn
O*71
cc£,
3 ,P:>D
-2
P^A
T«I n Tipu
3A 1
nu,
4-
. *5QSJ
~
*,'3
T*^
in fi7/
en A
S >?i-^
c ?Jy
y»"IA
riu
,fVQ/
Uv4
p^/
9 7/7
rot:
PJO
AA«
•»»/
2*4,^0,?
_»*2 itAO
rj5,>Ox!
T H AOP
A A??Q
o05
""
CC/T
•3
o4v
O1 O
1,/ciV
1 1Q
OQK
/. 9&6
~
~
rpop
AO*J
4"
^*\
A*7
rt / A
4-
1
qno
^ 007
i,i!1
);)
1
OO ^
AlQ
in 00*3
O OT
t*1
1 A^
ri.j.LojJ
do/
oJ4
OOA
CftA
4"
281
^J>i
r«'7P
117
354
n
O'TP
1 ^11
1
, J5-1--L
rjjjo
1 1 &*>
67^
r cjo
10 060
3 205
1
— on/'
3O*J
4-
IO^Q
> JO
.
T»I /nj?
j»284
AT?
10,027
3>194
9 973
2,688
8 787
/QT
i HPQ
APA
L 212
1 *»/*>
07 A
r»1 HI/
T*1
"39A
O/A
r»1 ^^
4-
1 D?^ 4"
1 A/-I 4~
TI,^?Oo
^A&
<2/l
^2*^
l^A
/Q»
1 "377
1 P^Q
£^«
(?8)
1
c;^
lyj
«,OA
1 !>A^
1
66 100
(AO)
r>^n7
1 P*n
«l»
ft?*»
i pi*;
672
O
1> J77P
(<•
»|*
r66 216
508
1 ^1
4*
171
4~
Q^Q
(61)
*n 2
1 ?7*3
1 ?&£
1 361
287
l/P
6^
(70)
(A2)
1^7
AP/
3,313
4,246
3 535 ;
65 639
2
""
"7AP
ej. Q / A
o,V4U
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)
All industrial production...
156.4
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products. . . .
Fabricated metal products . .
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical . . .
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
o
(27)
Percent ris ing of 24 components ^
o
«.
-
131.9
156 3
(40)
(48)
(29)
(50)
1 p& ^
1 OQ *5
i AA j*
1 *\Q r?
1^*5
A
165 o
162 9
129 1
160 2
1 P# Q
lAA ft
187 3
185 3
159 4
183.4
185 2
182 0
"i ft-a /
17Q 7
4-
1 A A ^ 4~
lA7 7
4-
185 8
185 2
1 en 17 «.
1 7& Q
i AQ A4.
1 A^ 3
129 2
T3& Q
4.
156.4
116 9
170.6
157*1
1 ^A Q
4*
120 2
4.
'166 5
• .^5g 2
44.*
ft
4.
«£.
.4.
T oA A
m
166 5
1*SQ
?
O
o
1
T3 K>
1 (<,,:>
•I r*-\ rt
i /O. O
T <* * -i
ipv« /
1 rto ^%
m.1
n
~
o
u
170, 8
_»1 <«^Q />
rix^.u
Wl £CQ >7
rlpv. 7
1 <^A "3
lyo. J
(05)
—
•**
rl82«2 o
•«T rt/ -j
rl54.l
r!71.1
rl83.1
* •*
125
157
182
184
1 JL"\
161
183
i
<*i£.
126
T Ql
Io4. J.
1 &O Ci
Io2,7
n OO
1^3-:?
T "1 /
Q
114.7
134.0 -f
115.5 ""
*jAA*^
lAA ^
i Ao *?
i £;& i
•wl AK A
Flb:>,U
lop
i £: A *?
1 £/r
v»1 CLC ^
npp.i
iu
155
-1-2;
rt
T T C
A
Ij>4. o
e
m
l<cV« J
r»T
^"7
rip
/.oft
(62)
C
/
lpp*4 I
"
rl36.4
pl07.0
4-
137
A\
(MA)
/tt
•5 / £-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and {-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary. r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
61
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER
bed
1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
February
March
May
April
July
June
September
August
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION^Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather •
Textile mill products
Apparel products*
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing . .
Chemicals petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
•
135* a
4-
4-
150.7
148.3
151.4
147.4
4"
150.3
147,8
199.2
132,1
164.0
O
4
4-
199,2
132,8
169,7
136.2
143.6
100.5
152,4 0
146.1 4*
152.4
146.8
200,5 127.4 •f
196,3
199,3
130.1
191.5
4_
4*
131.3
120.2
131.7
116.2
•4
•4-
132.7
128.8
115.7
119.6
115.1
118.3
•f_
4-
125.5
117.2
143.7
137.2
4-
••
4-
4.
135*1 4141,9
107.1
136.7.
146,4
103,7
4
141,2
105.0
44"
*»
135.3
141*5
101.9
444-
-*
4.
r 136.0
pl42.3
pl03.2
rl49.3
rl48.3
4-
-
-f_
142.1
136,6
4
„
44-
-
199.2 o
133.1
186.9
149.5
130.6
_
_
4
_
_
132.0
117.4
44-
_
r201,7
r!32,2
pl70,l
r!31.6
p!23.6
4-
pl52,Q
4-
149.0
4-
(MA)
(HA)
(HA)
p!49
(HA)
p!48
189.9
p!91
4
(HA)
(HA)
'(HA)
p200.1
p!34.1
(HA)
130.7
pl31 . 2
_
4-
131.9
123.9
120.1 •f
117.5 4
122.5
121.1
44
122.6
r!28.7
4-
r!30.8
132.9
129.2
133.9
133.3
+
rl!9.7
r!33.7
4-
p!05 . 5
P135.8
4+
pl35
4-
(HA)
(HA)
-f
4-
rl35.2
P138.5
-.
p!30
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
117.2
plH
p!29
p!21
(HA)
(HA)
_
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetailic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
o
4
0
4f
+
O
o
o
o
o
-f
4
444-
+
106.4
106.3
(73)
(57)
103.6 o
100.4 +
103.7 4
103.2 •f
103.6
- i
4-
(48)
+
1 100.6 o
103.8
103.3
106.2
4-
106.3 +
(57)
+
118
104
113
113
109
101
101
109
^_
in O £. 4
99 7
107 o
4-
118.9
105.1
113.7
113 2
108.7
101.8
101.6
108.0
108.8
102.2
101.6
107. 8
108.8
102.3
101.6
108 0 o
108 9
101.9
101.6
108 0
0 4
8
9 4
8
2 4
103.9 o
98.8
101 7 4
96 9
116.0 -
110 7
ion ^
103 1
SA ^
106 3
103.9
98 8
103 7
9S 8
115.4
111 7
101 8
104 7
87 1
105 9
103.3
98.5
101.9
95 8
118.0
Q
6
3
0
9
0
4-
110
101
104
86
106
4
103.6
Q
98.5
44-
102.4
95 9
117.0
Q
4
4.
44-
-
-f
-f
110
100
102
86
106
Q
Q
&C
7
9
7
1
1
8
4
6
-f-
+
44
4
-j_
4
°
-f
#
118
105
113
113
6
1
8
2
109 1
101 7
101 '3
109 7
T -| -2
"I
Q& 9
irn i
£
106 8
4-
(66)
4f
-j4
106.1
101 0
104 5
103 5
9
5
2
6
<
i
107 1
(75)
4
4
4-
108.7
101 2
104 7
104 0
4
118
105
114
113
'
109 /
1 09 7
4
101 6
101 3
110 0
101 5
101 5
110 2
44*
4"
•) -} Q
4.
4.
1
4.
1
Q£ ft
i no Q
»C
Q
05.7
119 4
105 6
114 1
114 o
m
o
QQ
9
77. <n no "7
&/L
Q
OD. J5
1 H7 1
i n"7 ^
1 no /
lu
/ ,4
104.1
104 o
104 1
98 6
9# 3
103 1
irn ?
98 0
in/ A
10^ 9
103.9
9^ A
f
105.3
100.9
104 2
103 4
OC
inA 7
O
106 8 o
(64)
104.7
100.8
103 9
103 3
120.0
104.9
113.6
113.0
4-
(50)
104.2 +
100.8
103.8 H~
103.2 f
121.1
104.8 4113.7
113.0 o
O
4-
4-
104.1 4
100.6 4
103.9
103.2 o
122.3
104.8 o
113.6 4113.0 o
4-
106 6
115.6
.(-
QC
$
115.2
Q7 A
114*4 o
97 Q
QC>
O
70.^.
114*4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
2
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
62
Table 5
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
February
March
April
Julyr
June
May
August
Septemberp
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
25,470 4
(39)
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel , accessory stores
Fami ly and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores ••
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumberyards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm eouipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
LJQUor stores. •
••
Jewelry stores
.\
Other durable-goods stores
./
Other nondurable-goods stores . •
•••
4_
4-
5,452 4•4
2,026 4
2,191 +
230
472
25,918
25,697
(44)
(61)
(35)
5,535
5,513
25,739
4-
5,507
4
2,046
2,200
223
448
„
4
44
2,034
2,278
230
520
4
4-
4-
315
557
2,038
2,283
215
504
317
585
4
4
254
791
246
795
423
779
269
4-
4
228
755
449
801
257
441
794
255
4
4,291
311
4-
4444
4*
4-
5,500
o
2,059
2,377
228
516
4
•4
420
750
251
..
4
4
4
4-
(44)
5,54B
44-
r26,558
444
4
26,688
(56)
(HA)
p5,535
4
4
2,071
2,305
236
506
4
(67)
p2>121
p2,343
p221
P517
4-
p341
p6l6
4-
—
4
4
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
4
326
596
4-
332
594
4-
241
784
4
397
771
260
4-
4-
244
775
450
754
260
4-
4-
o
(NA)
(NA)
4-
+
4-
4*
239
780
26,444
(83)
4
333
614
+
26,544
4-
4
304
576
4-
0
p256
p782
p4l6
P771
p250
4
4
4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
4
+
+
+
4,085
309
1,968
883
595
4
4
4
4
4
4-
1,964
889
584
4
44
4
4,348
312
4
1,992
906
609
4
4.
4,448
304
4-
1,996
903
598
4
4-
44
4,750
319
4.
4,814
316
2,020
903
580
2,040
923
599
4
4+
4
4
p4,768
p320
p2,032
p911
p590
4
4
4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4
4-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = fall ing. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
BCD Technical Paper
INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CONSUMER PRICES,
AND STOCK PRICES FOR SEVEN COUNTRIES
John C. Musgrave
Economic Research and Analysis Division
Bureau of the Census
INTRODUCTION
POSTWAR PERFORMANCES OF THE INDEXES
Indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and
stock prices for the seven major industrial nations in the
free world and a composite index of industrial production
for the major European countries in the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are
presented monthly in Business Cycle Developments
(BCD).
These series form a basis of comparison
between the United States and other major industrial
nations. This paper reviews the historical performances
of these indexes, explains the procedures used in
compiling them, and presents aids for comparing them.
The series and their numbers in BCD are as follows:
The U.S. index of stock prices is presented in this
report as a leading indicator, the index of industrial
production is classified as a roughly coincident indicator,
and the index of consumer prices as a series unclassified
by timing. No attempt, however, has been made in this
report to classify the series for other countries by
timing, even where reference cycle dates have been
defined. Generally accepted postwar reference cycle
dates for the United States, Canada, Japan, and Italy
are given in table 1. The general role of prices in the
business cycle is discussed in references HI and H5.
Theories of movements on the U.S. stock markets are
given in references A3 and A13.
Index of industrial production(Allseries are seasonally
adjusted.)
47. United States
121. OECD-Europe
122. United Kingdom
123. Canada
125. West Germany
126. France
127. Italy
128. Japan
Index of consumer prices (Although the total indexes
are not seasonally adjusted directly, some components of a
particular index may be adjusted.)
81. United States
132. United Kingdom
133. Canada
135. West Germany
136. France
137. Italy
138. Japan
Index of stock prices (Series are not seasonally
adjusted.)
19. United States, 500 common stocks
142. United Kingdom
143. Canada
145. West Germany
146. France
147. Italy
148. Japan
The postwar timing records of the three U.S. indexes
are given in table 2. The index of stock prices has served
as a consistent leading indicator at both business cycle
peaks and troughs, although this index has recorded two
"extra" postwar cycles (1962 and 1966). Industrial
production, a broad measure of aggregate output, has
followed a generally coincident pattern. The index of
consumer prices has moved upward without much discernible cyclical activity. The average annual growth
rates of eight indexes of industrial production are
compared in table 3.
A method of scoring the ability of economic indicators
to measure short-term economic change, developed by
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.— This paper was prepared at
the Bureau of the Census under the direction of Julius
Shiskin. Roger Adams of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Arnold Chase of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Edward Manookian and
Lorman Trueblood of the Federal Reserve Board,
Loughlin McHugh of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Milton Moss of the Bureau of the Budget
made helpful suggestions. Pierre Tchesnakoff of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development furnished assistance in the collection of background
materials. Geraldine Censky of the Bureau of the Census
provided editorial review.
65
58
Shiskin and Moore, is discussed in reference A14. Out of
a possible score of 100, the U.S. stock price index
receives a composite score of 81, which is one of the
highest scores for the leading indicators shown in BCD.
The breakdown of the scores for the three U.S. indexes
by six criteria is given in table 4. (Note that the timing
scores are based on the entire record of the series and
not merely the post-World War IIperiod.) U.S. industrial
.production receives a score of 72 (average score for all
roughly coincident indicators in BCD is 69), while
consumer prices receives a score of 45.
46
36
COMPILATION PROCEDURES FOR THE INDEXES
Table 1.-POSTWAR REFERENCE CYCLE DATES FOR THE
UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AND ITALY
Trough
date
Country
Peak
date
Trough
date
United States.
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
Canada
July 1949 May 1953
May 1954
May 1954 Mar. 1957 Mar. 1958
Mar. 1958 Jan. 1960 Mar. 1961
Mar. 1961
Japan
Italy
Duration
(months)
1949 July 1953 Aug. 1954
1954 July 1957 Apr. 1958
Feb. 1961
1958 May 1960
1961
58
44
34
37
Oct. 1951 Jan. 1954 Nov 1954
Nov. 1954 June 1957 June 1958
June 1958 Dec. 1961 Oct. 1962
Oct. 1962 Oct. 1964 Oct. 1965
Oct. 1965
43
52
36
Mar. 1950 Apr. 1951
June 1952 June 1955
Feb. 1956 Sept. 1957
Aug. 1958 July 1960
Jan. 1961 Oct. 1963
Jan. 1965
44
30
29
48
27
June 1952
Feb. 1956
Aug. 1958
Jan. 1961
Jan. 1965
NOTE: Reference turning point dates are determined by
the following organizations—
United States; National Bureau of Economic Research
Canada: Department of Trade and Commerce
Japan: Economic Planning Agency
Italy: Istituto per lo Studio Delia Congiuntura
A study to determine the feasibility of setting reference
cycle dates for the United Kingdom, France, and West Germany is currently being conducted by Use Mintz under
NBER sponsorship. A progress report is given in reference H2.
The indexes of industrial production for the countries
shown in BCD are designed to measure the change over
time in the country's physical volume of industrial
production. Basic data for such indexes are derived
primarily from the following sources: Quantities produced, quantities shipped, deflated values produced,
deflated values shipped, materials consumed, production
worker manhours adjusted for productivity changes, and
employment. The percentage of the index derived from
each type of data varies from country to country and
industry to industry, depending on the availability of
monthly data.
Quarterly and annual estimates are
usually based on more complete industrial coverage than
are monthly estimates.
The weights used for aggregating estimates for each
industry to national production indexes were derived
from industrial censuses or value-added estimates in the
national base years. These base years and the descriptions of the weights used are given in table 5. The
estimated percentage weights corresponding to broad
industrial groups for each of eight indexes in BCD and
the composite OECD indexes are given in table 6.
Table 2.-SPECIFIC CYCLE DATES AND MONTHLY LEADS AND LAGS FOR THE THREE U.S. INDICATORS
Reference date
REFERENCE PEAK DATE
November 1948
July 1953
July 1957
May 1960
Stock prices
Specific
peak date
June
Jan.
July
July
1948. . .
1953...
1956...
1959...
October 1949
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
Specific
trough date
June 1949 . . .
Sept. 1953..
Dec. 1957...
Oct. 1960...
66
-5
-6
-12
-10
Lead(-)or
lag(+) from
reference
trough date
-4
-11
-4
-4
-5 3/4
Average lead or lag
NSC = no specific cycle.
Lead (-) or
lag(+) from
reference
peak date
Specific
peak date
July
July
Feb.
Jan.
1948. . .
1953...
1957...
1960...
-8 1/4
Average lead or lag
REFERENCE TROUGH DATE
Industrial production
X = not applicable.
Lead (-) or
lag(+) from
reference
peak date
-4
0
-5
-4
Consumer prices
Specific
peak date
Aug. 1948...
Feb. 1954...
(NSC)
(NSC) .
Lead (-} or
lag(+) from
reference
peak date
-3
+7
(X)
(X)
-3 1/4
Specific
trough date
Oct. 1949...
Apr. 1954...
Apr. 1958...
Feb. 1961...
Lead (-) or
lag(+) from
reference
trough date
0
-4
0
0
-1
Specific
trough date
Jan. 1950...
June 1955...
(NSC)
(NSC)
Lead (-) or
lag(+) from
reference
trough date
+3
+10
(X)
(X)
Table 3.--GROWTH RATE TRIANGLES FOR THE EIGHT INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Terminal year
Initial year
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
United States
1 Q5<d.
-5.6
4.6
5.9
5.3
5.9
3.S
15.9
12.1
9.3
9.0
5.8
8.5
6.1
6.8
3.4
3.8
6.0
1.8
8.2
.9
-6.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
5.0
4.8
4.4
3.2
4.0
3.9
6.9
6.4
5.7
4.2
5.0
4.8
5.2
4.9
4.3
2.8
3.9
3.8
4.4
4.2
3.6
2.0
3.3
3.3
4.6
4.3
3.6
1.8
3.3
3.2
2.9
3.0
2.5
.5
2.5
2.5
12.5
7.9
5.5
2.2
4.2
4.0
3.4
2.1
-1.0
2.3
2.4
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
3.5
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.4
4.7
3.0
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.4
3.0
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.2
4.5
2.3
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.2
3.6
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.8
5.1
2.2
2.9
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.5
194-9
1950
1951
1 Q5P
1 Q53
.9
-3.2 -7.0
1.9 2.4 12.7
2.1 2.6 7.7
1.9
2.9
3.2
3. .6
4.1
4.6
2.2
3.3
3.6
4.0
4.5
5.0
2.9
5.4
6.0
5.8
5.9
6.3
6.6
2.0
3.9
4.2
4.6
5.2
5.7
1.0
4.3
4.6
5.1
5.7
6.2
7-7
6.4
6.4
6.9
7.3
5.1
5.8
6.6
7.2
6.5
7.4
7.9
8.3
8.6
8.8
3.6
5.8
6.2
7.0
7.3
7.4
8.1
7.5
8.2
8.2
8.1
7.0
8.2
8.2
8.1
9.4
8.8
8.5
8.2
8.1
7.9
19.2
13.6
12.4
13.5
11.7
11.7
8.3
9.2
11.7
9.9
10.3
10.0
13.4
10.4
10.8
16.9
10.6
11.0
4.6
"8.2
11.9
Canada
1 Q^O
1 Q^
1 QC;/
3.6
5.6
6.8
6.2
6.3
5.2
7.5
8.4
7.0
7.0
5.5
9.2
6.8
6.9
5.1
4.4
5.7
3.7
7.1
3.4
-.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
6.0
6.6
6.0
5.4
5.7
5.3
6.4
7.0
6.3'
5.6
5.9
5.5
6.2
6.9
6.2
5.3
5.7
5.3
5.5
6.5
5.7
4.8
5.2
4.9
5.8
7.0
5.9
4.8
5.4
4.9
5.2 11.0
7.0 10.8
5.6
7.6
4.4
5.6
5.1
6.2
5.4
4.6
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.0
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.9
6.0
6.1
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.1
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.8
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.6
5.8
5.9
4.5
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.7
5.9
1 QZC)
1 Q5D
1 Q^l
5.2
5.5
5.7
6.1
6.3
6.4
10.6
6.0
3.8
5.0
4.4
1.7
.6
3.2
2.9
-.4
4.0
3.3
8.6
5.1
1.8
4.2
4.8
5.1
5.5
5.8
6.0
3.0
3.8
4.3
4.9
5.3
5.5
3.4
4.3
4.7
5.4
5.7
6.0
4.6
5.5
5.8
6.4
6.6
6.8
2.7
4.5
5.1
6.0
6.3
6.5
Japan
1 Q^iO
1 Q^^
-i ocy
27.8
27.0
28.9
23.5
22.4
20.0
26.2
29.4
22.0
21.1
18.4
32.7
20.0
19.4
16.6
8.5
13.2
11.6
18.2
13.3
8.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
18.0
18.5
18.4
16.3
16.6
17.2
16.5
17.2
17.3
15.1
15.5
16.3
14.6
15.8
16.1
13.7
14.4
15.4
10.5
12.6
13.5
11.3
12.3
13.6
11.2
13.7
14.5
11.7
12.9
14.3
7.8
12.2
13.6
10.5
12.0
13.7
7.2
14.2
15.4
11.0
12.7
14.6
21.6
19.7
12.3
14.1
16.1
17.9
7.9 -1.2
8.8 19.8
11.7
14.8 13.8 22.2
24.6
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
17.4
16.7
16.3
16.3
15.6
15.4
16.6
15.9
15.5
15.6
14.9
14.7
15.7
15.1
14.7
14.8
14.1
14.0
14.1
13.6
13.3
13.6
12.9
12.8
14.8
14.1
13.7
14.0
13.3
13.2
14.4
13.7
13.3
13.6
12.9
12.8
15.2
14.3
13.9
14.2
13.3
13.1
16.6
15.4
14.7
15.0
13.9
13.7
15.7 15.1
,14.4 13.7
13.8 13.1
14.2 13.6
13.1 12.5
12.9 12.4
21.8
17.2
15.3
15.6
13.7
13.5
-1 CV Q
1 Qe;n
-] QG-1
21.2
17.8
16.2
16.3
14.6
14.2
67
Table 3.--GROWTH RATE TRIANGLES FOR THE EIGHT INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued
Terminal
year
Initial year
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1955
1954
1953
1957
1956
1958
1959
1960
1961
1964
1963
1962
1965
West Germany
-
1 Q^Z.
48.8
36.4 25.0
30.4 22.0
23.9 16.5
21.1 15.0
19.4 14.2
19 1
12.5
11.9
11.7
6.3
8.4
9.3
10.6
10.8
ll.l
1955
1956
1957
195g
1959
1960
18.7
17.4
16.0
14.7
14.0
13.7
14,4
13.5
12.5
11.4
11.0
10.9
12.3
11.6
10.8
9.8
9.5
9.6
10.7
10.2
9.5
8.5
8.4
8.6
12.2
11.2
10.1
8.9
8.6
8.9
13.1
11.4
10.0
8.6
8.3
8.7
15.0
11.6
9.6
8.0
7.8
8.3
8.2
7.0
5.7
6.0
7.0
5.9
4.5
5.3
6.7
3.1
5.1
6.9
7.0
8.9 10.7
1961
1962..'
1963
1964
1965
1966
13.1
12.5
11.9
11.6
11.3
10.7
10.5
10.1
9.6
9.5
9.3
8.8
9.3
8.9
8.5
8.5
8.3
7.8
8.4
8.0
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.1
8.6
8.2
7.8
7.8
7.6
7.2
8.3
7.9
7.5
7.6
7.4
6.9
8.0
7.5
7.1
7.2
7.1
6.6
6.8
6.5
6.2
6.4
6.3
5.8
6.5
6.2
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.6
6.7
6.3
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.6
7.9
7.1
6.4
6.7
6.6
5.9
8.4
7.1
6.3
6.6
6.5
5.7
1 Q/ Q
i Q*sn
1951
"\Qf^O
~\ Q*)^
-
-
6 1
5.3
4.8
5.7
5.6
4.9
4.6
4.2
5.5
5.5
4.7
3.9
6.0
5.8
4.7
8.1
6.8
5.0
5.6
3.5
1.4
3.7
5.4
4.9
3.9
7.2
5.6
3.9
4.0
2.4
.8
-
-
6.2
4.5
5.2
2.7
4.6
United Kingdom
8.2
7.2
6.5
3.8
4.1
4.8
6.3
5.7
2.4
3.1
4.1
5.1
.5
2.1
3.6
-3.9
.6
3.1
5.4
6.8
8.3
1955
19%
1957
1953
1959
I960
4.9
4.2
3.9
3.4
3.6
3.9
4.4
3.7
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.5
4.0
3.2
3.0
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.1
2.5
3.1
6.4
4.6
4.0
3.2
3.5
4.0
6.9
4.4
3.7
2.7
3.2
3.8
5.5
2.5
2.2
1.4
2.2
3.1
-.4
.6
.1
1.4
2.6
1.5
.3
2.0
3.3
-.9
2.3
3.9
5.5
6.5
7.4
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.5
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.5
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.0
1.9
2.2
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.5
3.1
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.7
3.3
3.4
3.1
4.1
3.4
3.4
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
2.6
2.9
3.8
3.8
3.4
-.6
.3
1.5
2.9
3.1
2.7
1.3
2.5
4.0
4.0
3.4
-
-
-
-
5.7
5.9
5.5
5.7
5.1
5.3
6.0
5.4
5.7
4.9
5.3
1949
iQ'sn
1 Q^l
1952
1953
1 Q^/
France
1949
1950
1951
1952
12.7
6.8
7.9
6.1
5.0
5.9
1.1
5.6 10 o2
3.9
5.4
3.2
3.9
5.4
4.5
.8
.9
3.9
1.0
5.4
10.1
I960
6.2
7.0
7.2
6.9
6.4
6.6
5.2
6.2
6.6
6.3
5.8
6.1
6.0
7.0
7.4
6.9
6.3
6.6
5.0
6.4
6.9
6.5
5o8
6.2
6.4
7.9
8.2
7.5
6.6
6.9
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.1
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.9
6.0
5.7
5.8
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.8
6.7
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.2
6.2
1 9*5?
1 Q5Z.
1955
1956
1957
1953
1959
68
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.3
10.3
10.1
8.8
7.5
7.7
8.5
10.4
10.1
8.5
7.0
7.3
12.3
10.9
8.5
6.7
7.1
9.4
6.6
4o8
5.8
3.9
2.6
4.7
1.3
5.0
8.9
7.5
7.3
7.0
7.0
6.6
6.6
7.1
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.3
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.4
5.5
4.9
5.1
5.1
5.3
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.1
5.3
7.3
6.9
6.3
6.3
5.7
5.8
:
4.8
5.5
4.6
5.1
6.6
Table 3.--GROWTH RATE TRIANGLES FOR THE EIGHT INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued
Terminal
year
Initial year
1949
1948
1950
1951
1952
1954
1953
1955
1956
1958
1957
1960
1959
1962
1961
1963
1965
1964
Italy
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
B.I
9.3
10.0
8.2
8.0
8.2
10.5
10.9
8.2
8.0
8.3
11.4
7.1
7.2
7.7
3.0
5.2
6.5
7.5
8.4
9.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
8.3
8.3
8.2
7.7
8.0
8.6
8.4
8.3
8.2
7.7
8.0
8.6
8.0
8.0
7.9
7.3
7.7
8.5
7.1
7.3
7.3
6.8
7.2
8.1
8.5
8.4
8.2
7.4
7.8
8.8
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965..
1966
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.8
8.9
8.9
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.7
8.8
8.8
8.2
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.6
7.9
7.7
8.0
9.0
9.1
9.1
8.4
8.1
8.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.0
8.7
8.4
7.4
7.9
9.0
8.8
8.5
8.1
6.9
7.6
9.0
8.1
7.8
6.3
7.3
9.0
7.5
5.4
7.1
9.2
3.4
6.9
9.8
9.2
9.3
9.2
8.4
8.1
8.4
9.2
9.3
9.2
8.4
8.0
8.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
8.3
8.0
8.3
9.5
9.5
9.5
8.3
8.0
8.3
10.0
10.0
9.8
8.5
8.0
8.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
10.4
13.1
15.8
12.3
11.6
11.1
9.3
8.7
9.0
13.3 10.8
12.1 10.2
11.3
9.8
9.1
7.5
8.4
7.0
8.8
7.7
9.6
9.3
6.4
6.0
7.1
9.0
4.8
4.8
6.5
.9
2.9
5.7
4.9
8.1
11.5
4.4
4.7
5.3
5.4
4.9
5.1
5.8
5.7
5.1
6.5
6.0
5.1
5.5
4.4
3.3
OECD-European Countries
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
9.3
9.4
7.8
7.1
6.0
6.1
6.6
9.4
7.1
6.4
5.2
5.4
6.2
4.8
4.9
3.9
4.5
5.6
5.1
3.4
4.3
5.7
1.7
4.0
6.0
6.3
8.2
10.1
1961
1962
1Q63
1964
1965
1966
6.3
6.1
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.2
6.8
6.2
5.9
6.0
6.0
5.6
7.0
6.1
5.9
6.0
5.9
5.5
NOTE:
formula:
4.0
4.2
4.5
5.0
5.1
4.8
Growth rates are computed for the eight indexes of industrial production using the compound interest rate
Where
100,
r
Xi
Xt
n
is
is
is
is
the
the
the
the
average annual
annual average
annual average
difference (in
growth rate (percent),
value of the index for the initial year.
value of the index for the terminal year,
years) betv/een the terminal and initial years.
Table 4.:-SCORES BASED ON SIX CRITERIA FOR THE THREE U.S. INDICATORS
Criterion
Economic significance
Statistical adequacy
Conformity
Timing
Smoothness
Currency
Weight
(percent)
20
20
20
20
10
10
Stock
prices
Industrial
production
Consumer
prices
75
74
77
87
80
100
75
63
94
38
100
80
75
50
20
12
100
40
81
72
45
NOTE: Explanations of scoring criteria are given in reference A14.
69
Table 5.-CURRENT NATIONAL BASE YEARS AND WEIGHTS
FOR THE EIGHT INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Base period
Country
United States...
Weights proportionate to--
1957-59 = 100.. Value added in 1957 adjusted to 1957-59
quantities.
Contribution to gross domestic product at factor cost in 1949.
Japan. ...... ... I960 - 100. . . .Value added in I960.
West Germany. ... 1958 - 100. . . .Value added in 1958.
United Kingdom. . 1958 - 100
Value added in 1958.
Prance ... •••••• 1959 - 100
Value added in 1959.
1966 = 100
Value added in 1965.
Italy
OECD — Europe . . .
I960 - 100. . . (!)
1949 = 100
Canada.
NOTE: All indexes are arithmetically rebased
of the Census.
to 1957-59 = 100 by the Bureau
1
National weights are extrapolated to I960 = 100 and combined using the weights
given in table 7 by the OECD.
Table 6.-WEIGHTING PATTERNS FOR THE EIGHT INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
ISIC 1
Codes
Sector
(4)
(4)
11 to 14,
19.
20 to 39
Total
Mining and quarrying
Comparable
SIC2 Codes
United
States
Canada
Japan
West
United
Germany Kingdom France
Italy
OECD-
Europe 3
OECDTotal 3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
10 to 14.
8.2
10.1
3.6
7.9
8.2
8.5
2.^
6.0
7.2
85.6
7.8
85.8
9.7
89.6
88.7
9.1
87.2
35.5
31.9
20.6
30.3
29.9
10.2
86.5
7.0
7.0
91.8
14.6
87.5
34
19 to 39
33
84.8
Primary metals
Metal products (fabricated metal products,
machinery and transportation equipment)...
35 to 38.
34 to 37.
30.4
17.1
29.1
22.7
Food, beverages, and
tobacco
20 to 22.
20, 21...
11.1
12.6
9.1
17.0
9.8
8.9
13.4
10.4
Textiles, clothing,
and footwear
23, 24...
22, 23...
6.5
10.6
9.5
14.0
10.1
8.7
16.3
9.6
31, 32...
Other manufacturing . . . . 25 to 30,
33, 39.
28, 29...
19, 24 to
27, 30 to
32, 38.
9.5
22.0
5.8
12.0
17.5
9.3
12.3
14.3
13.0
11.5
17.8
10.6
17.1
7.8
14.6
511, 512.
491, 492,
4931-2,
part of
5.3
4.6
4.6
6.2
5.7
8.1
5.3
5.6
Manufacturing
Chemical and petroleum
products
5
Electricity and gas
31.7
5.1
7.4
8.4
17.9
8.0
8.1
20.4
9149 and
9349.
NOTE: The above weights represent a regrouping
weight periods are given in table 5. Where total
national source, the index excluding construction is
those of the total indexes excluding construction.
of national classifications to ISIC groups. National base and
indexes including and excluding construction are published by the
published in BCD. The weighting patterns shown in this table are
More details are given in references H3 and H4.
1
International Standard Industrial Classification (derived by the Statistical Office of the UN, described in reference H6).
2
U.S. Standard Industrial Classification, described in references A2 and A12.
3
The OECD—Europe and OECD—total indexes are estimated by the OECD by extrapolating the indexes of the component
countries to I960 = 100 and combining them using the weights given in table 7.
4
Includes only those codes shown below.
3
Instruments and related products; clay, glass and lumber; furniture and miscellaneous; ordnance and accessories;
leather and products; paper and printing; rubber and plastics products.
70
Table 7.-WEGHTS USED TO DERIVE COMPOSITE INDEXES
OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Country
OECD — total
OECD-Europe
distribution
Weight
100 0
United States
Canada
Japan
52.2
3.5
5.5
OECD —Europe
37.3
100.0
10.8
10.7
5.2
3.9
1.4
28.9
28.7
13.9
10.5
3.5
1.3
1.3
1.0
.9
.5
.3
3.4
3.4
2.8
2.6
1.4
.9
West Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Netherlands
Belgium
Sweden
Switzerland
Austria.
Norway
Portugal
Other OECD countries 1 ...
AIDS FOR COMPARISON OF THE INDEXES
1.5
NOTE: Weights are based on 1958 value-added estimates
of the Statistical Office of the UN (extrapolated to 1960
by the OECD). See also reference H7.
Denmark,, Greece,, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain,
Turkey. No seasonally adjusted production, indexes are
available for these countries.
For purposes of comparing the relative magnitudes of
production measured by these seven national indexes,
table 7 gives each country's output as a percentage of the
total output of all OECD countries. Indus trial product ion
in the United States accounts for about 52.2 percent of the
total for all OECD countries (OECD—total), while the
remainder is distributed as follows: Western Europe,
38.8 percent; Canada, 3.5 percent; Japan, 5.5 percent.
Table 7 also gives the analogous weights for the countries
included in the OECD—-Europe index. Of the total
industrial output represented by the OECD—-Europe
index, the four European country indexes shown in BCD
contribute approximately the following percentages: West
Germany, 28.9 percent; United Kingdom, 28.7 percent;
France, 13.9 percent; Italy, 10.5 percent.
The stock price indexes included in BCD are designed
to measure the price movements of a representative group
of shares traded on the major exchanges for the seven
countries.
The composition, national base periods,
timing, and methods of computation of the seven indexes
are given in table 8.
The stock price index shown for the United States is
Standard and Poor's index of 500 industrials, rails, and
utilities. The stocks selected for the index are the most
actively traded issues and represent about 85 percent
of the total market value of all issues listed on the
New York Stock Exchange. The index is adjusted for
issuance of rights, dividends, mergers, and stock splits.
Similar adjustments are applied to stock-price indexes
for the other countries to provide historical continuity.
The consumer price indexes shown in BCD are
designed to measure the change over time in the cost
of a typical "market basket" of goods and services
purchased by an urban wage-earner's family. Sales,
excise, and real estate taxes are included in the prices
sampled, and personal property and payroll taxes are
excluded. All indexes shown in BCD are the Laspeyres
(base-weighted) type. The national base periods, timing,
and benchmarks for the indexes are given in table 9.
Table 10 gives comparative weights and numbers of items
sampled for broad categories of consumer purchases.
Economic time series, such as indexes of industrial
production, are assumed to be composed of three major
types of fluctuations:
1. Trend-cycle—long-term growth and businesscycle influences underlying the series;
2. Seasonal—periodic intrayear fluctuations which
are repeated constantly or in an evolving fashion
from year to year;
3. Irregular—errors of measurement and random
unforeseeable influences, such as strikes and
abnormal weather.
The user who is primarily interested in studying the
underlying cyclical movements and growth of an index of
industrial production would encounter difficulty when
examining such an index not adjusted for seasonal
movements and variation due to calendar composition,
since these fluctuations often dominate month-to-month
changes in the index. Adjustments which are applied to the
indexes published in BCD and references giving more
details on these adjustments are listed in table 11. All
of the production indexes shown in BCD are seasonally
adjusted using variants of Census Method II or similar
ratio-to-moving-average methods. Special adjustments
for the effects of strikes and other unusual events are
made where necessary.
The consumer price indexes published in BCD are not
seasonally adjusted directly, but adjustments are made
for items which are available only in certain seasons
or which have seasonal price patterns (chiefly agricultural
products). The stock price indexes published in BCD are
not seasonally adjusted, since tests indicate no discernible
evidence of seasonality in these series.
After the series have been adjusted for seasonal and
calendar influences, where appropriate, the user must
still decide whether particular month-to-month changes
in the seasonally adjusted series represent irregular
fluctuations or movements in the underlying trend-cycle.
A tool to facilitate this analysis is the concept of "months
for cyclical dominance" (MCD), which is the shortest
span, in months, for which changes in the trend-cycle
become greater than changes in the irregular. By
examining changes over the MCD span, the user should
be able to distinguish meaningful signals in the underlying trend-cycle from short-term irregular noise,
which is dominant at shorter spans. In the current
period, series will tend to be more erratic than they are
historically, since the current seasonal factors are based
on less information than the historical factors. Hence, it
may be necessary for the user to examine changes over
71
Table 8.--COMPOSITION AND METHOD OF COMPUTATION FOR THE SEVEN STOCK PRICE INDEXES
Country
Number and type of stocks included
Base period
Timing
Method of computation
United States.., Standard and Poor's index of 1941-43 - 101 Average of daily
The price of each stock is weighted by
closing prices in the number of shares outstanding. Agg500 stocks (425 industrials,
55 utilities, 20 rails).
New York.
regate current market value is divided
by the average of weekly values in the
base period and multiplied by 10.
Canada.
Dominion Bureau of Statistics 1956 = 100... Average of Thurs- The price of each stock is weighted by
Investor's Index (77 indusday closing prices the number of shares outstanding and
trials).
in Montreal and
represented as a percent of the averToronto.
age value in the base period.
Japan
, General index of 225 stocks.. Jan. 5, 1959 Average of daily
Current prices are chained back to the
closing prices in base period.
= 126.19.2
Tokyo.
West Germany..., 403 industrials.
Dec. 31, 1953 Average of quota- The index is a base-weighted arithmetic
= 100.
tions on exchange average of shares included with the
days nearest the
Deutschmark-capital position of all
7th, 15th, 23d, shares outstanding as of the base date
and last day of
as weights.
the month in
Frankfurt am Main.
United Kingdom.. Financial Times—Actuaries' Apr. 10, 1962 Average of daily
The index is a base-weighted arithmetic
index of industrial ordinmiddle-market
average with the market capitalization
= 100.
ary shares (500 indusclosing prices in of the shares included in the base
trials).
London.
period as weights.
France.
Stocks from 12 industrial
Dec. 29, 1961 Prices as of the
Industry group averages of price relagroups.
= 100.
last Friday of the tives are weighted by market values of
month in Paris.
all shares in the group as of the end
of the preceding year and chained to
the base period.
Italy.
1958 = 100... Average of daily
40 industrials.
The index is a base-weighted arithmetic
high and low quo- average with market values in the base
tations in Milan. period of shares included as weights.
NOTE: The number and type of stocks included in these indexes varies over time. This table is based on latest information available to the Bureau of the Census. Indexes are arithmetically rebased to 1957-59 = 100 by the Census Bureau.
1
The level of the index on this base approximates the average price of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange in dollars and cents.
2
Simple arithmetic average of the price of all stocks included in the index as of the base date.
Table 9.--CURRENT NATIONAL BASE PERIODS, TIMING, AND BENCHMARKS FOR THE SEVEN CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
Country
Base period
United States
1957-59 ~ 100
Canada.
Japan
1949 = 100
West Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
NOTE:
prices).
1957-59 =
1
A new
Timing
Entire calendar month.
First of the month
1965 - 100
Last 3 days of the week including
the 12th of the month.
1962 - 100
Middle of the month
Jan. 16, 1962 = 100.. Tuesday nearest the 15th of the
month.
Every week (food) or middle of
1962 = 100
the month.
1
1953 - 100
3 times per month (food) or the
middle of the month.
Benchmark
1959 population estimates and 1960-61
household surveys.
1947-48 and 1957 household surveys.
1965 household surveys.
Continuing household surveys.
Annual household surveys.
1954, 1956, and 1962 household surveys in Paris.
1953 consumption pattern (estimated
from 1953 national accounts).1
Most prices are collected monthly, while others are collected quarterly or annually (e.g., rents and regulated
The timing of the prices collected monthly is given in this table. All indexes are arithmetically rebased to
100 by the Bureau of the Census.
index on the 1966 = 100 base is now published, although complete methodological details are not yet available.
72
spans 1 or 2 months longer than the MCD span to assess
current fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series.
Summary measures of variability in the indexes are given
in table 12.
The current monthly estimates for each country are
generally available in BCD with a publication lag of 1 to 3
months after the end of the reference month (see table 13).
Since revision policy varies from country to country, it is
not possible to give a firm idea of how soon to expect
final estimates for comparison. However, the magnitude
of revision between preliminary and revised estimates of
these indexes is usually small.
Table 10.--SPECIFICATIONS SAMPLED AND WEIGHTING PATTERNS USED IN CONSTRUCTING
THE SEVEN CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
Country and group
Specifications
priced
(number)
Weight
United States, total
Food
Housing
Apparel and upkeep
Transportation
Health, recreation, miscellaneous
396
105
81
77
34
99
100.0
X
22 4
33 2
10.6
13.9
19.9
Canada, total
Food
Housing
Apparel and upkeep
Transportation
Health, recreation, miscellaneous
269
90
58
58
16
47
100.0
26.7
32 2
11.3
12 0
17.8
Japan, total
Food
Housing
Apparel and upkeep
Transportation 2
Health, recreation, miscellaneous
364
139
53
62
14
96
100.0
40 3
15 7
12.8
3.8
27.4
West Germany, total
Food
Housing 3
Apparel and upkeep
431
115
124
73
100.0
37.3
24 4
13.0
Country and group
Transportation
Health recreation
Specifications
priced
(number)
Weight
miscellaneous
18
101
6 3
19 0
United Kingdom, total
Food
Housing
Apparel and upkeep
Transportation
Health, recreation, miscellaneous
329
131
69
70
16
43
100.0
4
29.3
25 3
10 6
11 8
23 0
France , total
Food
Housing
. . ..
Apparel and upkeep
Transportation
Health, recreation, miscellaneous
259
98
59
41
14
47
100.0
39.6
21.1
13 7
6 5
19.1
Italy, total.
Food
Housing
Apparel and upkeep
. .
Transportation
Health, recreation, miscellaneous
137
51
25
17
13
31
100.0
42.6
15 4
12.5
7 0
22.5
NOTE: The weights shown here are based on national classification schemes and are not strictly comparable from country to country.
The major groups shown for the United States are those published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and
those for other countries have been regrouped so as to approximate the U.S. scheme.
The weights are as of the base
periods given in table 9 unless otherwise noted. The number of items sampled and the weights used for each series have
varied over time, and the information shown above is the latest available to the Bureau of the Census. The composition
of the U.S. groups is given below; specific deviations from this pattern in other countries are footnoted.
Food: Food at home and away from home (excluding alcoholic beverages);
Housing: Rent, homeownership, fuel and utilities (including telephone), household furnishings and operation (including postage);
Apparel and upkeep: Apparel, footwear, jewelry, related goods and services;
Transportation: Private vehicles (auto purchase, gasoline and motor oil, auto parts, services;, public transportation;
Health, recreation, miscellaneous: Medical goods and services, personal goods and services, recreational goods and
services (including radio, television, music), reading and education, tobacco products, beverages, other expenses.
1
3
Weights represent relative importance as of December 1963.
Including communications.
Excluding home4
ownership costs.
Weights represent relative importance for the period February 1966 to January 1967.
73
Table ll.-SEASONAL AND OTHER ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED
TO THE EIGHT INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Country
United States.
Table 12.--SUMMARY MEASURES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS SHOWN IN BCD
References
Adjustments
Indicator and country
Industrial production:
United States
Canada
Japan
West Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
OECD —Europe
c
T/C
.81
0 68
1.48
.96
2.09
2.51
2 13
1.88
1.51
1
1.32
1.02
1.31
1.37
.74
0.75
.53
1.23
.63
.40
.62
.73
.49
.19
.25
.79
.37
.48
.57
.34
.26
.30
.74
.41
.51
.49
.37
.15
.18
.37
.21
.28
.40
.31
1.71
1.72
1.98
1.97
1.79
1.24
1.20
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1.77 1.61
2.26 '1.58
2.52
2.37
2.02 2.36
1.96 1.71
3.28 2.00
3.01 1.87
1.10
1.42
1.07
.85
1.15
1.64
1.61
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
Cl
1
0.99
.91
1.71
1.49
1.07
1.37
0.51
.79
MCD
Seasonal, calendar, strike,
automobile model-year, and
holiday adjustments by Federal Reserve Board.
Al, A8,
A9, A15,
A16.
Calendar and seasonal adjustments by Dominion Bureau of
Statistics.
B5, B6.
Calendar and seasonal adjustments by Ministry of International Trade and Industry
and Bank of Japan.
C4, A15,
A16.
West Germany..
Calendar adjustment by Statistisches Bundesamt; seasonal
adjustment by OECD.
D4, A15,
A16.
United Kingdom
Calendar, holiday, strike, and
seasonal adjustments by
Central Statistical Office.
El
France.
Calendar and seasonal adjustments by Institut National de
la Statlstique et des Etudes
Economlques.
F2, F5.
Stock prices:
United States
Canada
Japan
West Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Italy.
Calendar arid seasonal adjustments by Istituto Nazionale
per lo Studio Delia Congimitura.
A15, A16.
NOTE: Summary measures were computed for the period
January 1953 through December 1966 by the Bureau of the
Census using the X-ll variant of Census Method II. CI, I,
and C represent the average absolute month-to-month percent changes in the seasonally adjusted series and irregular and trend-cycle
components,
respectively. MCD
(months for cyclical dominance) is the shortest monthly
span for which I/C becomes less than 1 and remains so.
More details are given in reference A15.
Canada.
Japan. .
OECD—Europe. . Seasonal and calendar adjustments by source agencies or
OECD.
Consumer prices:
United States
Canada
Japan
West Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
.
2.51
2.83
3.63
3.37
2.82
3.96
3.85
Table 13.--MONTHS LAG FOR PUBLICATION OF
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
(Number of months)
Country
United States
Canada
J ap an
W^st Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Industrial
production
i
3
2
2
3
3
3
Consumer
prices
2
1
1
3
1
2
3
Stock
prices
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NOTE: Timing shown is from sources currently available
to the Bureau of the Census. The number of months lag
refers to the number of months after the end of the reference month when the figure first appears in BCD. Some
figures are subject to revision for several months.
74
1.46
1.18
2
1
3
3
3
3
2
REFERENCES
Methodological notes and current data for the series
described in this paper are found in the following references, sections A to G, relating to specific countries.
References of general interest are given in section H.
Explanations are included as to the content of each
reference unless it has been cited in the preceding
sections or unless the content is obvious.
A. United States
(Al) H.C. Barton, Jr., "Adjustment for Seasonal
Variation," Federal Reserve Bulletin, June
1941.
(A2) Bureau of the Budget, Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1967.
(A3) Paul H. Cootner (editor), The Random Character
of Stock Market Prices, 1964.
(A4) Department of Labor, BLS Handbook of Methods
for Surveys and Studies, Bulletin No. 1458,
October 1966 (consumer price methodology).
(A5)
, Monthly Labor Review (current consumer price data).
(A6)
, "Seasonal Behavior of Components in
the CPI," Monthly Labor Review, May 1967.
(A7) Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve
Bulletin (monthly) (current industrial production
data).
(A8)
, Industrial Production, 1959 Revision,
(A9)
B. Canada
(Bl) Department of Trade and Commerce, Current
Statistical Indicators (bimonthly) (reference
cycle dates).
(B2) Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Canadian Statistical Review (monthly) (current data).
(B3)
, The Consumer Price Index for Canada
(1949 = 100), Revision Based on 1957 Expenditures (62-5T8X
(B4)
, Prices and Indexes (62-002), February
1962, June 1962, March 1965 (stock price
methodology).
(B5)
, Revised Index of Industrial Production
* 1935-1957, DBS Reference Papers (61-502),
1959.
(B6)
, Supplement to the Monthly Index of
Industrial Production (61-005 Supplement), May
1966.
C. Japan
(Cl) Bank of Japan, General Explanations on Financial Statistics,
October 1963 (stock price
methodology).
(C2) Economic Planning Agency, Current Business
Fluctuations, (monthly) (reference cycle dates,
printed in Japanese only).
(C3) Office of the Prime Minister, Monthly Statistics
of Japan (current data).
(C4)
, Supplement to the Monthly Statistics of
Japan, Explanatory Notes (annual).
, Industrial Production, 1957-59 Base,
1962.
~~~~~
(A 10) Clayton Gehman and Cornelia Motheral, Industrial Production Measurement in the United
States:
Concepts, Uses, and Compilation
Practices, Federal Reserve Board, 1964.
(All)
, Measures of Industrial Production and
Final Demand, Federal Reserve Board, Staff
Economic Studies No. 24, December 1966.
(A 12) Harold Goldstein, The International Standard
Industrial Classification and the U.S. Standard
Industrial Classification, Bureau of the Census
Technical Paper No. 14, 1965.
(A 13) "How to Buy Stocks by the Calendar," Fortune,
March 1965.
(A14) Geoffrey Moore and Julius Shiskin, Indicators of
Business Expansions and Contractions, National
Bureau of Economic Research Occasional Paper
103, 1967.
(A15) Julius Shiskin, "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," Journal of Business, October
1957, republished as National Bureau of
Economic Research Occasional Paper 57,1957.
(A16) Julius Shiskin, Allan H. Young, and John C.
Musgrave, The X-ll Variant of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program, Bureau
of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, Second
Edition, 1967.
(A17) Standard and Poor's Corporation, The Outlook
(monthly) (current stock price data).
(A18)
, Security Price Index Record, 1964
(stock price methodology).
D. West Germany
(Dl) Statistisches
Bundesamt, Wirtschaft
Statistik (monthly) (current data).
, Wirtschaft und Statistik, April
(D2)
(stock price methodology).
, Wirtschaft und Statistik, June
(D3)
(consumer price methodology).
(D4)
, Wirtschaft und Statistik, March
(industrial production methodology).
und
1956
1961
1965
E. United Kingdom
(El) Central Statistical Office, Economic Trends,
March 1962.
(E2)
, The Index of Industrial Production,
Studies in Official Statistics No. 7,1959.
(E3)
, Monthly Digest of Statistics (current
data).
(E4) The Financial Times, Guide to the Financial
Times—Actuaries" Share Indices.
(E5) Ministry of Labour, Method of Construction
and Calculation of the Index of Retail Prices,
1964 (Studies in Official Statistics, No. 6).
F. France
(Fl) Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes
economiques, Bulletin Hebdomadaire de Statistique, January 21, 1961 (stock price
methodology).
75
(F2)
(F3)
(F4)
(F5)
(F6)
, Etudes et Conjoncture, No. 4, 1960
(industrial production methodology).
Etudes Statistiques, No. 4,1957, and No.
2, 1964 (consumer price methodology).
, Etudes Statistiques, No. 1, 1961 (stock
price methodology).
, Etudes Statistiques, No. 3,1962 (industrial production methodology).
, Bulletin Mensuel de Statistique
(monthly) (current data).
G. Italy
(Gl) Istituto
Centrale di Statistica, Bolletino
Mensile de Statistica (monthly) (current data).
______ Bolletino Mensile de Statistica, March
1967 (consumer price methodology).
______ Numeri Indici dei Prezzi, Base 1953 =
100, October 1957, Metodi e Norme, Serie A,
No. 2 (consumer price methodology).
(G4)
, Numeri Indici della produzione
industriale, Base 1953 = 100, Metodi e Norme,
Serie A, No. 1, October 1957.
76
(G5)
, Numeri Indici della produzione
industriale, Base 1966 = 100, Supplemento
Straordinario al Bolletino Mensile di Statistica,
No. 4, April 1967.
(G6) Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio Della
Congiuntura, Congiuntura Italiana (monthly)
(reference cycle dates).
H. General
(HI) Columbia University, Wages, Prices, Profits,
and Productivity, June 1959.
(H2) National Bureau of Economic Research, Contributions to Economic Knowledge Through
Research (annual report), June 1967.
(H3) Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, Industrial Production (quarterly
supplement to Main Economic Indicators).
(H4)
, Industrial Production, 1955-1964, 1966.
(H5) Beryl Sprinkel, Money and Stock Prices, 1964.
(H6) United Nations Statistical Office, International
Standard Industrial Classification of All
Activities, 1958.
(H7)
, Supplement to the Monthly Bulletin of
Statistics. 1963.
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
June
May
Aug.
July
Oct.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours per production worker)
1945 ....
1946 . . . .
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 . . . .
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 . . . .
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 . . . .
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 . . . .
1964 ....
1965 ....
45.3
40.8
40.5
40.4
39.3
39.7
40.9
40.6
41.0
39.5
40.3
4-0.8
40.4
38.8
40.1
40.5
39.1
39.9
40.3
40.0
41.1
45.4
40.4
40.4
40.2
39.4
39.7
40.8
40.7
40.9
39.7
40.5
40.6
40.4
38.6
40.2
40.1
39.3
40.3
40.2
40.5
41.2
45.2
40.5
40.3
40.3
39.0
39.7
41.0
40.6
41.1
39.4
40.6
40.4
40.2
38.7
40.4
39.9
39.3
40.5
40.4
40.5
41.3
45.1
40.4
40.2
40.2
38.6
40.1
41.2
40.1
41.0
39.4
40.6
40.6
40.1
38.6
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.7
40.2
40.8
41.0
44.3
39.9
40.6
40.3
38.8
40.2
40.9
40.4
40.9
39.5
41.0
40.2
39.8
38.7
40.5
40.0
39.7
40.4
40.4
40.7
41.1
44.5
39.8
40.3
40.2
38.9
40.5
40.7
40.5
40.7
39.5
40.6
40.1
39.9
39.1
40.5
39.9
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
41.0
44.3
39.8
40.1
40.0
39.1
40.9
40.6
40.2
40.6
39.6
40.6
40.3
39.9
39.2
40.2
39.9
40.0
40.5
40.5
40.7
41.0
40.8
40.5
40.0
40.1
39.1
41.1
40.3
40.5
40.5
39.7
40.5
40.0
39.8
39.4
40.3
39.6
40.0
40.3
40.4
40.9
41.1
41.7
40.5
40.5
39.8
39.5
40.7
40.4
41.1
39.7
39.5
40.7
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.1
39.4
39.7
40.6
40.6
40.6
41.0
41.4
40.3
40.4
39.8
39.5
40.9
40.1
41.1
40.1
39.6
40.9
40.5
39.3
39.5
40.0
39.5
40.3
40.2
40.7
40.7
41.2
41.1
41.1
40.2
40.6
39.8
39.1
41.1
40.4
41.0
39.7
40.1
41.0
40.3
39.2
39.8
39.9
39.3
40.6
40.4
40.5
40.9
41.4
40.5
40.7
39.5
39.3
40.9
40.6
41.1
39.6
40.0
40.9
40.6
39.0
39.8
40.1
38.3
40.3
40.2
40.6
41.2
41.4
19. -United States— Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( 1957-59=100) L
44
49
49
33
30
35
44
51
49
32
31
37
46
51
49
32
31
39
48
50
47
33
32
40
47
49
49
31
33
40
46
51
50
31
34
40
47
53
50
58
76
94
95
89
117
59
81
94
96
91
116
61
87
99
98
93
121
62
86
98
93
97
120
64
90
95
89
99
116
65
85
94
84
103
116
68
91
93
82
106
116
71
92
94
82
108
120
112
135
128
142
164
181
116
133
113
142
163
172
113
133
115
140
169
115
137
119
144
166
175
111
136
118
148
169
181
109
138
114
148
112
144
147
173
187
115
145
127
150
170
186
39,022
43,333
44,557
45,051
43,525
46,784
48,188
49,993
49,673
49,277
51,753
52,914
52,321
52,011
54,079
53,617
54,794
55,961
57,304
59,379
62,319
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
30
31
34
43
49
53
29
30
35
45
48
52
29
30
35
44
48
53
31
30
36
44
48
50
33
30
37
44
48
50
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 . . . .
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
52
72
89
92
83
113
53
75
90
88
84
111
54
74
96
89
85
114
56
77
97
91
86
116
1960 . . . .
1961 . . . .
1962 ....
1963 . . . .
1964 ....
1965 . . . .
118
121
140
132
155
175
113
126
142
134
157
176
112
130
142
133
160
176
113
133
138
139
162
178
1945 ....
1946
1947
1948 ....
1949 . . . .
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
41,780
39,729
43,493
44,658
44,622
43,467
47,267
48,268
50,084
49,380
49,379
41,784
39,215
43,588
44,541
44,445
43,192
47,518
48,456
50,320
49,300
49,548
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 . . . .
1960
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
51,921
52,854
52,045
52,447
54,232
53,571
54,753
55,980
57,335
59,484
52,132
53,046
51,483
52,599
54,452
53,416
55,063
56,095
57,683
59,778
34
28
38
172
41. Number of employees in non agricultural establishments (Thorns.)
41,656
40,912
40,320
41,125
38,387
41,341
40,623
40,811
41,260
41,568
40,214
41,968
42,490
42,798
43,478
43,561
43,688
43,639
43,667
44,062
43,851
172
185
122
44,662
44,214
43,871
47,725
48,473
50,398
49,095
49 , 864
44,342
44,058
44,276
47,890
48,494
50,418
49,008
50,123
44,659
43,848
44,607
47,829
48,538
50,394
48,856
50,440
44,925
43,626
44,995
47,951
48,142
50,416
48,810
50,739
45,124
43,457
45,387
47,951
47,986
50,413
48,719
50,864
45,040
43,506
46,064
47,815
48,705
50,304
48,691
50,957
45,143
43,671
46,298
47,770
49,146
50,173
48,750
. 51,114
45,087
42,811
46,522
47,815
49,451
50,115
48,858
51,334
38,821
43,263
44,345
45,094
43,163
46,652
48,049
49,719
49,845
49,129
51,520
52,180
53,118
51,161
52,881
54,196
53,529
55,189
56,240
57,771
60,048
52,325
53,070
50,880
53,227
54,451
53,540
55,464
56,456
57,928
60,186
52,418
53,051
50,816
53,477
54,383
53,735
55,581
56,580
58,060
60,453
52,498
52,997
50,857
53,643
54,319
53,973
55,625
56,629
58,201
60,692
51,824
53,007
50,958
53,730
54,260
54,103
55,719
56,757
58,365
60,928
52,480
53,019
51,160
53,274
54,247
54,287
55,814
56,861
58,533
61,132
52,454
52,807
51,416
53,303
54,130
54,311
55,917
57,005
58,785
61,319
52,715
52,712
51,415
53,238
54,032
54,415
55,956
57,181
58,669
61,553
52,766
52,505
51,879
53,544
53,885
54,666
55,977
57,166
59,133
61,933
38,470
43,008
44,272
•"-This series is the same U. S. stock price series (Standard & Poor's index of 500 common stocks) shown elsewhere in the report,
Here, however, it is shown on the same index base (1957-59=100) as the stock price indexes for selected foreign countries. The
series is not seasonally adjusted.
(October 1967)
77
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
May
Apr.
Mar.
July
June
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Dec.
82. Federal cash payments to the public ( A n n . rate, bil. d o l . )
1945....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 . . . .
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 . . . .
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
* *]
50.4
37.7
35.5
40.8
44.4
46.4
70.8
75.1
69.5
72.2
.. .
72.0
83.4
82.9
96.4
93.1
99.3
110.2
112.6
121.9
119.7
44.6
39.4
33.7
42.7
41.7
54.4
70.1
84.7
69.5
72.1
. ..
73.9
84.1
85.3
95.8
94.4
107.9
109.6
115.0
118.8
129.2
89.2
35.0
42.9
36.4
44.1
39.1
63.7
69.9
77.2
75.3
73.2
64.8
35.3
34.4
42.1
42.7
42.5
67.3
77.0
71.8
64.4
71.1
71.9
82.9
93.2
95.6
94.5
104.4
111.1
120.2
119.6
127.5
80.9
82.9
93.9
94.3
96.6
106.9
116.4
120.8
121.2
134.9
83. Federal cash receipts from the public ( A n n . rate, bil.
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 . . . .
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
.. .
.. .
.. .
. ..
..
. ..
81.9
84.7
82.7
81.1
94.7
92.9
100.0
108.5
117.3
120.3
...
.. .
.. .
. ..
.. .
.. .
. ..
81.3
85.8
80.5
83.8
98.9
98.5
106.5
111.2
113.1
125.3
.. .
.. .
...
...
. ..
. ..
...
.. .
.. .
78.3
84.0
80.9
92.9
100.0
99.1
109.6
114.9
114.0
124.6
.. .
...
...
dol.)
48.81
41.8
43.8
43.1
43.4
45.1
61.1
68.5
70.1
62.9
70.6
41.8
43.4
44.8
37.9
39.0
58.6
76.0
70.7
71.2
71.2
39.5
45.0
47.2
41.3
38.6
56.9
68.5
70.9
73.0
72.1
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
. ..
.. .
45.6
43.5
44.7
43.9
43.4
49.8
63.1
75.0
70.0
64.8
71.4
78.1
81.6
81.5
93.9
98.8
101.3
109.3
117.3
117.1
126.9
84.. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit (-) ( A n n . rate, bil. d o l . )
1945....
1946....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
78
.. .
.. .
+9.9
+1.3
-0.2
-15.3
+1.6
-6.4
-iO.2
-4.1
-4.6
+0.6
-40.4
+6.8
+0.9
+6.7
-0.7
+6.0
-2.6
-1.4
-7.1
-12.4
-2.6
-2.8
+4.0
+11.1
-4.8
-10.9
+7.3
+11.7
+0.5
-5.8
+10.5
-2.3
-4.2
+3.5
-0.1
-2.7
+4.2
+ 5.9
-14.0
+1.7
-0.9
.. .
.. .
...
. ..
.. .
+7.4
+1.7
-4.8
-12.0
+4.5
-9.4
-3.1
-3.8
-5.7
-3.9
.. .
.. .
. ..
.. .
.. .
. ..
.. .
+6.4
+1.1
-12.3
-2.7
+ 5.5
-5.3
-1.5
-5.3
-5.6
-2.9
...
...
.. .
...
...
-19.2
+8.2
+10.3
+1.8
+0.7
+7.3
-4.2
-2.0
-1.8
+0.4
+0.3
-2.8
-1.3
-12.4
-0.4
+2.2
-5.6
-7.1
-3.5
-4.1
-8.0
(October 1967)
...
...
.. .
.. .
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
Aug.
July
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
132. United Kingdom— Index of consumer prices (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
63
66
68
71
80
84
64
66
68
71
80
84
64
66
68
72
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
85
88
92
97
100
102
85
88
92
96
100
102
85
88
102
102
104
109
113
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
104
109
112
114
119
114
119
80
85
94
96
100
102
101
104
109
113
114
119
82
85
66
67
69
76
83
85
65
67
69
76
83
85
65
67
68
77
83
85
65
67
69
77
82
85
65
68
70
78
83
85
66
68
70
78
83
85
66
68
70
79
S3
85
86
89
96
97
101
101
85
89
95
97
101
101
86
91
95
98
102
101
88
91
94
99
100
101
87
90
95
98
100
101
86
91
95
98
100
101
87
92
96
99
101
101
88
93
96
100
101
102
88
93
96
100
102
102
102
105
111
113
115
102
105
111
122
103
106
111
112
117
122
102
107
110
112
117
123
102
107
110
112
117
123
103
107
110
113
117
123
103
108
111
113
118
123
104
108
111
122
103
106
112
113
117
122
79
81
83
93
93
93
80
81
84
94
93
93
80
81
85
94
93
94
80
81
85
95
93
93
80
81
86
95
93
93
65
66
69
73
82
85
65
67
69
75
113
116
113
118
124
133. Canada— Index of consumer prices (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
75
80
80
87
95
93
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
93
94
94
97
99
101
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963
1964 ....
1965 ....
102
104
10/
106
108
110
92
77
80
81
90
93
92
78
80
82
91
93
92
97
99
101
93
93
94
97
100
101
93
93
94
97
101
101
93
94
94
97
101
101
93
93
95
98
101
101
93
93
95
98
100
101 »
94
94
96
98
101
102
94
94
96
99
101
102
94
94
96
99
101
103
94
94
97
99
101
103
94
94
97
99
101
103
102
104
104
106
108
110
102
104
104
106
108
110
102
104
105
106
108
111
102
104
105
106
108
111
103
104
105
102
104
105
107
109
112
103
104
106
108
109
112
103
104
105
107
109
112
104
104
106
107
109
112
104
104
106
108
109
113
104
104
106
108
110
113
75
80
80
88
94
93
93
93
94
76
80
81
89
94
92
76
80
81
90
94
107"
109
112
79
80
83
92
93
93
135. West Germany — Index of consumer prices (1957- 59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
*94
87
87
95
93
93
86
88
95
93
92
85
90
94
93
91
85
91
94
92
91
84
91
93
92
83
91
84
92
93
92
87
90
84
92
93
92
89
89
84
92
93
92
91
89
85
92
93
91
95
89
85
94
93
91
94
90
85
95
93
91
95
89
86
95
94
91
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
91
93
95
97
100
100
91
93
95
97
100
100
92
93
96
97
100
100
92
93
96
97
100
100
92
93
96
98
101
100
92
93
96
98
101
101
92
94
96
99
101
101
92
93
96
98
100
102
92
93
96
98
99
101
93
94
96
99
99
102
93
95
97
99
100
102
93
95
97
99
100
102
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ...•
102
104
107
111
113
102
104
107
112
113
115
102
104
108
113
113
116
102
104
109
113
113
116
103
105
109
112
114
117
103
106
110
112
114
118
103
106
110
112
114
119
102
106
109
111
114
118
102
105
108
111
114
118
102
105
108
112
114
118
103
106
109
112
115
119
103
106
109
112
115
120
11:3
(October 1967)
79
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
136. France — Index of consumer prices (1957-59=100)
75
84
85
50
55
61
75
83
85
50
55
61
76
83
84
55
56
64
76
84
83
59
59
66
77
85
82
61
61
68
79
84
82
60
62
68
82
84
82
62
62
69
83
85
83
84
85
87
86
102
107
84
84
86
87
103
108
83
83
85
88
103
108
82
83
86
89
103
108
83
84
86
90
104
109
83
85
86
91
104
110
84
85
86
94
104
111
84
85
86
96
104
111
112
114
121
127
131
112
113
115
122
128
132
136
114
116
122
128
132
135
114
116
114
117
122
129
132
136
123
129
133
114
119
124
130
133
136
114
119
125
130
133
137
77
75
79
35
88
89
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
46
62
63
69
85
85
50
59
64
71
87
85
49
56
63
72
86
85
49
56
64
73
85
84
49
55
63
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
83
85
85
87
99
107
84
84
86
87
100
108
84
84
86
87
83
84
86
86
101
108
102
108
1960 ....
1961....
1962....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
112
115
120
125
131
134
112
115
120
125
131
134
112
112
114
120
126
131
134
115
120
126
131
134
135
114
122
127
131
137
136
137. Italy— Index of consumer prices ( 1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
76
78
75
80
85
88
75
78
75
82
86
88
77
78
74
82
86
88
78
79
75
84
87
89
77
79
75
84
87
90
76
79
76
85
88
90
72
76
76
85
88
88
77
77
85
88
88
77
77
79
85
88
88
76
75
78
85
88
89
77
75
79
85
88
89
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
89
94
95
98
100
100
90
94
96
98
100
100
90
94
97
98
100
100
90
94
97
98
101
100
92
94
97
98
102
100
92
94
97
98
102
100
92
94
97
98
102
100
92
94
97
98
102
100
92
94
97
98
102
100
92
95
97
99
101
102
92
95
97
99
101
102
92
95
98
100
100
102
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
103
104
107
115
122
129
103
104
108
117
123
129
103
104
108
117
123
130
102
105
109
118
123
130
103
105
109
118
124
130
103
105
109
118
125
130
103
105
110
118
126
131
103
105
110
118
126
131
103
105
111
119
127
132
103
106
111
120
127
132
104
106
115
121
128
132
104
107
114
122
129
133
71
75
70
84
85
66
74
69
84
85
97
68
72
70
96
70
74
72
85
85
96
97
96
98
100
103
103
95
94
96
99
102
103
94
94
97
99
101
103
106
105
115
119
129
135
144
106
115
75
138. Japan — Index of consumer prices (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
48
75
76
76
85
87
47
76
73
80
85
88
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
97
95
94
98
99
101
97
96
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
104
104
107
116
123
129
139
107
115
124
129
139
96
97
98
100
C9
78
71
81
86
88
55
79
69
82
86
90
57
81
70
81
85
89
63
79
67
81
84
91
62
75
69
80
86
91
68
74
70
82
85
92
94
97
95
96
97
98
100
97
97
96
98
99
101
97
%
96
99
99
100
07
95
97
99
100
100
97
94
94
96
95
96
96
94
96
99
99
100
100
100
102
100
100
102
104
108
116
125
130
141
105
109
117
127
132
143
105
10?
119
128
133
142
105
110
119
130
133
141
105
111
120
130
133
141
106
111
118
127
133
141
106
112
117
128
133
143
114
119
129
136
145
gt;
85
(October 1967)
80
121
128
135
145
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
June
May
Apr.
July
Aug.
Sept.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
142. United Kingdom— Index of stock prices (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
64
60
49
56
54
57
56
58
51
57
53
59
58
54
50
57
51
60
60
55
50
62
54
59
60
53
51
64
49
56
56
49
53
64
49
56
56
49
51
60
51
57
56
49
52
63
55
60
57
51
55
64
54
62
58
49
55
66
54
64
59
49
55
59
54
63
59
50
54
58
54
64
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
67
95
86
86
79
106
68
85
80
86
75
108
69
86
82
87
80
109
72
88
88
92
84
114
74
95
83
92
84
118
76
103
81
94
89
118
79
100
84
94
89
116
84
94
85
91
94
126
85
92
83
83
97
123
90
91
83
78
100
141
89
89
76
79
101
145
90
92
81
77
108
155
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
154
154
144
150
174
165
151
161
145
153
170
169
152
168
142
156
174
163
144
171
148
159
178
163
149
169
134
160
175
166
145
156
129
159
172
159
145
151
133
161
178
154
153
145
146
166
180
156
151
143
141
169
181
160
153
140
142
173
177
169
146
142
149
176
169
174
147
144
150
179
162
170
143. Canada— Index of stock prices (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
37
39
41
56
67
63
34
37
41
6l
67
62
34
36
41
60
66
62
37
36
44
61
65
58
40
36
45
61
62
57
42
33
46
59
63
56
40
35
43
60
65
58
39
37
48
63
65
59
39
37
51
67
63
55
40
39
52
69
60
55
41
41
52
65
61
55
52
65
61
55
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
57
76
96
102
82
107
59
79
96
98
83
110
60
79
103
100
85
65
82
103
109
87
110
65
89
102
109
91
110
65
91
107
107
110
63
81
105
105
85
109
94
116
68
91
111
97
98
113
69
96
106
91
99
105
69
90
102
83
103
105
73
92
98
83
104
105
76
93
100
82
114
110
1960 ....
1961....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
108
115
139
133
150
185
103
100
125
142
132
153
190
103
130
140
138
162
192
105
136
134
143
168
195
105
134
118
141
168
184
102
138
116
136
173
175
105
142
123
134
172
180
105
142
120
139
174
185
101
136
116
141
179
186
105
138
124
140
182
188
109
140
127
143
177
183
...
...
21
21
39
31
36
120
140
132
150
186
40
41
145. West Germany— Index of stock prices ( 1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
21
22
43
32
21
24
42
31
19
25
39
30
19
24
38
30
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
37
62
72
66
72
111
38
62
69
65
74
113
39
65
69
65
73
114
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 «...
188
250
229
171
204
203
190
247
225
167
208
198
186
245
224
167
216
193
.. .
19
27
33
30
20
29
33
32
21
32
35
34
22
35
33
35
41
73
67
64
81
142
45
75
66
65
83
162
46
77
64
68
89
183
49
77
65
69
95
173
53
71
66
68
100
165
107
174
58
71
66
70
105
181
239
265
180
190
207
183
257
243
174
189
210
181
282
231
167
196
214
184
281
270
225
151
198
208
178
258
241
169
192
202
174
253
233
178
194
202
171
19
25
36
30
19
26
34
30
39
72
71
66
77
120
39
72
68
65
77
128'
193
250
216
171
214
192
207
263
199
186
210
187
220
166
202
216
184
38
32
36
55
69
65
69
(October 1967)
81
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
July
June
Aug.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
146. France—Index of stock prices (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
25
25
23
22
36
38
23
23
21
25
38
38
24
21
22
25
35
37
43
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
69
68
79
101
95
42
69
66
85
90
95
77
70
95
84
95
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
122
151
160
158
143
125
127
159
177
152
134
121
124
166
186
153
128
126
42
26
26
22
20
32
23
22
22
25
35
36
22
21
22
25
33
37
22
21
22
26
36
38
24
22
21
26
36
38
24
23
22
29
37
39
23
23
31
35
40
28
23
22
31
35
40
26
21
22
30
35
39
35
39
46
78
73
97
85
101
48
68
74
105
86
108
47
69
78
109
82
108
51
72
84
119
80
115
56
72
82
119
82
118
60
76
82
112
85
118
62
72
82
103
83
127
69
74
68
72
105
82
134
70
79
100
82
135
131
167
186
147
128
134
168
169
143
122
123
140
163
160
139
114
117
144
154
166
146
151
155
164
152
130
118
142
150
165
137
151
157
141
125
113
144
161
166
135
128
112
140
165
32
35
36
32
34
36
51
31
35
37
48
50
124
129
113
145
123
117
161
135
127
117
147. Italy— Index of stock prices ( 1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
*36
33
34
38
53
50
38
33
36
40
52
'37
31
37
41
50
1954
1955 ....
1956
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
71
77
79
83
102
52
72
78
83
84
105
52
68
76
83
82
111
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
164
213
206
177
149
111
161
226
205
164
141
119
159
222
208
161
133
133
36
32
34
39
47
32
31
35
38
48
30
30
34
40
47
49
68
51
70
74
85
82
123
51
75
70
87
80
128
174
236
201
167
129
129
194
242
187
174
117
122
72
83
81
121
165
222
. 200
167
121
131
32
32
35
4?
51
32
32
36
43
51
73
85
81
138
56
86
77
87
84
150
58
88
76
88
85
141
60
86
76
86
88
140
62
84
76
88
93
150
65
79
78
83
96
156
202
224
184
168
114
119
238
225
185
163
114
125
256
214
178
156
125
124
231
2<'2
163
151
126
123
208
2:4
172
157
121
123
194
31
29
35
41
49
54
81
/: 6
49
51
211
185
159
116
133
148. Japan— Index of stock prices (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
6
19
16
17
28
64
9
18
16
19
29
67
11
22
16
20
29
56
11
23
15
19
30
51
10
27
15
19
33
55
25
14
21
37
53
10
22
15
20
39
56
10
25
17
22
40
63
9
26
17
23
40
67
9
23
17
25
46
68
11
21
17
25
52
66
15
17
16
25
S5
64
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
56
58
56
58
67
89
82
109
52
55
88
82
115
52
55
73
91
85
117
51
54
75
85
87
121
52
55
78
82
89
125
53
55
77
77
89
129
53
59
78
80
91
134
55
60
76
83
92
139
53
62
77
81
94
145
50
62
83
78
97
148
52
64
86
76
101
144
160
237
231
240
192
183
168
254
216
249
190
178
164
261
218
244
201
178
162
258
222
242
206
170
171
278
227
233
208
163
177
265
220
213
200
181
186
240
209
209
195
195
194
213
197
210
189
191
201
214
218
202
188
204
203
205
223
192
189
213
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
66
89
79
105
145
223
229
224
199
197
153
225
239
232
200
193
69
9
(October 1967)
82
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Dl. Diffusion index for Average workweek — 21 industries (1-month span)
71.4
26.2
71.4
71.4
26.2
83.3
52.4
9.5
81.0
78.6
14.3
42.9
42.9
69.0
66.7
19.0
83.3
31.0
45.2
47.6
85.7
38.1
57.1
16.7
38.1
64.3
81.0
38.1
16.7
38.1
73.8
42.9
64.3
21.4
85.7
31.0
9.5
81.0
28.6
71.4
95.2
9.5
50.0
59.5
59.5
16.7
61.9
81.0
38.1
19.0
57.1
69.0
28.6
26.2
64.3
64.3
54.8
42.9
42.9
23.8
14.3
59.5
38.1
73.8
59.5
35.7
1954
IW
ijjj • • » •
1956
1957 ....
1958
1959 ....
21.4
90.5
40.5
35.7
33.3
92.9
69.0
81.0
26.2
73.8
14.3
61.9
31.0
83.3
23.8
21.4
69.0
69.0
28.6
45.2
71.4
40.5
45.2
69.0
69.0
90.5
4.8
9.5
64.3
66.7
78.6
40.5
28.6
45.2
95.2
33.3
64.3
21.4
81.0
40.5
83.3
45.2
52.4
66.7
21.4
42.9
76.2
31.0
19.0
73.8
73.8
54.8
73.8
21.4
76.2
69.0
64.3
4.8
40.5
54.8
92.9
66.7
16.7
35.7
88.1
50.0
40.5
33.3
66.7
35.7
47.6
69.0
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
38.1
95.2
28.6
78.6
0.0
50.0
11.9
61.9
61.9
40.5
88.1
66.7
33.3
54.8
83.3
59.5
42.9
71.4
38.1
73.8
81.0
19.0
78.6
14.3
78.6
50.0
21.4
85.7
28.6
83.3
21.4
92.9
38.1
66.7
38.1
42.9
38.1
61.9
35.7
64.3
59.5
61.9
28.6
66.7
40.5
38.1
69.0
47.6
23.8
45.2
92.9
73.8
16.7
33.3
81.0
83.3
2.4
57.1
64.3
71.4
23.8
73.8
64.3
23.8
66.7
73.8
7.1
16.7
26.2
78.6
100.0
66.7
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
40.5
81.0
54.8
73.8
31.0
Dl. Diffusion index for Average workweek — 21 industries (9-month span)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 « . . .
1962
1963 ....
1964
1965
4^8
90.5
45.2
40.5
81.0
14.3
95.2
42.9
47.6
14.3
14*. 3
97.6
31.0
42.9
9.5
19.0
100.0
21.4
52.4
7.1
50.0
95.2
23.8
71.4
4.8
21.4
47.6
90.5
19.0
71.4
9.5
16.7
42.9
95.2
35.7
66.7
9.5
0.0
50.0
95.2
26.2
73.8
0.0
14.3
90.5
78.6
26.2
90.5
0.0
4.8
78.6
81.0
42.9
64.3
0.0
2.4
85.7
73.8
38.1
85.7
4.8
0.0
92.9
73.8
23.8
83.3
0.0
2.4
31.0
23.8
14.3
92.9
50.0
100.0
14.3
11.9
19.0
95.2
33.3
85.7
4.8
16.7
45.2
92.9
42.9
81.0
9.5
21.4
69.0
88.1
38.1
85.7
16.7
14.3
90.5
71.4
59.5
90.5
21.4
4.8
90.5
40.5
73.8
92.9
19.0
0.0
100.0
38.1
78.6
81.0
35.7
0.0
95.2
45.2
92.9
85.7
19.0
4.8
92.9
35.7
92.9
38.1
52.4
9.5
100.0
11.9
95.2
33.3
52.4
9.5
97.6
16.7
90.5
61.9
28.6
11.9
95.2
19.0
26.2
42.9
85.7
59.5
69.0
83.3
28.6
83.3
76.2
40.5
54.8
78.6
28.6
73.8
61.9
95.2
57.1
81.0
19.0
95.2
26.2
66.7
85.7
73.8
11.9
90.5
71.4
81.0
50.0
47.6
11.9
97.6
52.4
78.6
88.1
61.9
14.3
95.2
52.4
66.7
73.8
69.0
7.1
90.5
28.6
66.7
90.5
64.3
33.3
64.3
2,6.2
57.1
78.6
85.7
11.9
92.9
26.2
57.1
85.7
95.2
16.7
83.3
35.7
54.8
92.9
'90.5
28.6
92.9
23.8
73.8
54.8
85.7
100.0
(October 1967)
83
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Bt
Page
Issue
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*1.
*30.
2.
5.
3.
301.
46.
Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
Nonagricultural placements, all indus
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
L .
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
9
9
9
9
17
17
33
33
33
33
33
38
38
511.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*502.
Man-hours in nonagri.establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C .. •
Lg...
17
17
17
18
18
18
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
41
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C.
C ...
C ...
C ...
18
18
18
19
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
68-9
68-9
68-9
68-9
68-9
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
74
74
74
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
75
75
77
66
76
66
76
76
66
Oct. '67
Oct. '631
Sept. '67
July '631
Sept. '67
Apr. '67
Feb. '641
77
77
72
72
66
72
76
Apr. '67
Oct. '67
Feb. '67
Feb. '67
Mar. '641
Feb. '67
Apr. '67
73
73
70
74
74
77
74
72
July
July
Sept.
July
July
Apr.
July
Apr.
74
66
78
June '65
Aug. '631
June '67
78
76
66
May '67
Aug. '67
Dec. '631
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49.
*50.
*47.
*52.
53.
*816.
57.
*54.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
19
19
19
68-9
68-9
68-9
68-9
68-9
75
75
75
75
71
71
70
70
70
70
71
70
75
75
'67
'67
'64
'67
'67
'67
'67
'66
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*38.
13.
*6.
94.
*10.
11.
24.
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, mfg
New orders, mach. and equip, industries
L ... 10
L ... 10
L ... 10
L ... 10
L ... 10
L .... n
L ... n
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
9.
7.
*29.
96.
97.
*61.
505.
Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nqnfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg- • •
11
n
11
20
20
22
22
34
34
34
40
40
41
41
L ...
L ...
L .:.
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
Lg...
Lg...
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22
35
35
35
•35
35
35
35
41
41
8-9
68-9
68-9
68-9
70
70
70
70
70
71
70
74
70
70
70
70
71
72
70
78
76
74
66
77
65
76
73
73
70
73
70
70
73
70
70
72
72
68
64
65
66
66
73
72
May
Aug.
June
June
Aug.
June
Apr.
'67
'67
' 65
'64
'67
'64
'67
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21.
*31.
37.
20.
26.
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Change in business inventories
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value
68-9
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
L" leading C-roughly coincident, Lg- lagging.
finis appendix has been dropped from this issue. Page numbers shown are for September issue.
84
I
74
Appendix G in this issue,
July '67
Nov. '66
June '631
June '64
June '64
Mar. '641
Dec. '631
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Timing
classification
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Charts
1
Tables
2
1
2
Appendixes
4
5
Bt
ct
Dt
F
E
Page
Issue
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*23
*19.
*16.
22.
18.
*17.
55.
58.
68.
*62.
81.
L
13
L
13
L ... 14
L
14
L . . . 14
L . . . 14
Industrial materials prices. .
,
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio profits to income originating, corporate
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices
70
70
71
71
71
70
70
70
72
71
71
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
36
36
36
36
36
36
40
40
42
42
43
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
40
40
40
40
40
42
42
42
42
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
73
73
73
71
71
71
71
26
u .
26
26
27
27
27
27
27
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
73
73
72
72
72
71
71
71
71
u.
u .. .
u...
u...
u...
u...
u .. .
u...
28
28
28
28
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
72
71
71
71
72
71
71
72
c
C . .
Lg...
Lg
U . ..
20
20
23
23
24
68-9
68-9
68-9
68-9
68-9
1
66
77
72
73
71
72
73
72
75
75
73
Jan. '64
Oct. '67
77
76
71
71
75
73
66
71
Sept. '67
Sept. '67
Apr. '67
July '64
Apr. '67
Feb. '67
66
71
72
72
72
70
73
70
72
'64
'64
' 66
'64
'64
Aug. '64
Apr. '67
Aug. '64
July '64
79
79
74
73
77
78
74
June '67
June T 67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
74
76
78
73
78
76
70
70
66
76
July '67
'67
'67
'67
July '67
Sept. '64
Sept. '64
Oct. '64
Aug. '67
74
74
77
77
77
7S
78
78
79
79
74
July '67
July '67
Apr. '67
July '67
j?eb. '67
Apr. '67
July '67
July '67
ifeb. '67
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
98
85
33
*113
112
110
14
39.
93
114
116
115
117.
66.
*72.
*67.
118
Change money supply and time deposits
Change total U S money supply
Change mortgage debt
Change consumer installment debt
Change business loans ^
Total private borrowing 2
Liabilities of business failures
. ..
Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Free reserves
Treasury bill rate 2
Corporate bond yields22
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields 2
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields residential 2
c .. .
C .. .
c
c..
c ...
. .
. . . 15
15
. . . 15
. . . 15
15
. . . 16
16
... 16
Lg
Lg. ..
Lg...
Lg
21
21
21
21
21
23
23
23
23
-
68-9
-
68-9
68-9
73
73
73
73
73
71
70
70
73
70
70
70
70
71
71
72
71
74
74
74
74
74
1
Nov. '63
Apr. '67
Oct.
July
Aug .
July
July
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
U
b. Official settlements basis
U
88. Merchandise trade balance
U
U
86. Exports excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles. . . . U
862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
U
87 General imports
u
..
...
...
. ..
...
. ..
.. .
74
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95
84.
83.
82.
101.
91
90
99
92.
Fed balance nat'J income and prod account
Federal cash surplus or deficit
Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases current dollars
Defense Department obligations total
Defense Dept obligations procurement
New orders defense products industries
Military contract awards in U.S
850
851
852.
853.
854.
855.
856
Ratio
Ratio
Ratio,
Ratio,
Ratio,
Ratio,
Ratio
u
u
u ...
u ...
u .. .
U . .. 26
II
..
-
74
74
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
output to capacity mfg
inventories to sales mfg and trade
unfilled orders to shipments durable goods
prod, of bus. equipment to consumer goods
personal saving to disposable personal income . .
nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed. . . .
avg earnings to consumer prices
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
r
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. L=leading, C=roughly coincident, Lgalagging, U= unclassified ("other selected U.S. series,' "U.S. series under consideration" and "international comparisions"). l Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G).
tThis appendix has been dropped from this issue. Page numbers shown are for September issue.
85
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other grouping
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Page
Issue
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.
Canada index of industrial production
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
France, index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production
Japan, index of industrial production
OECD-Europe, index of industrial production
Italy, index of industrial production
U
U
U
U .....
U
U
U
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.
Canada, index of consumer prices
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices
France, index of consumer prices
West Germany, index of consumer prices
Japan, index of consumer prices
Italy, index of consumer prices
U
U
U
U
U
U
31
31
31
31
31
31
47
47
47
47
47
47
79
79
80
79
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
143.
142.
146.
145.
148.
147.
Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
France, index of stock prices
West Germany, index of stock prices
Japan, index of stock prices
Italy, index of stock prices
U
U
U
U
U
U
32
32
32
32
32
32
48
48
48
48
48
48
81
81
82
81
82
82
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
83
72
77
69
72
72
73
Oct.
Apr.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
May
'67
'65
'67
'64
'65
'65
'65
73
73
78
73
70
70
8-9
69
Sept.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'66
'65
'67
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
67
75
67
68
75
68
July
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
'67
'64
'67
'67
'64
'67
'64
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl.
D6.
Dll.
D34.
D19.
D23.
D5.
Average workweek
New orders
Capital appropriations
Profits, mfg
Stock prices
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims
-
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
54
54
54
55
55
55
55
58
D41.
D47.
D58.
D54.
D35.
D36.
D48.
D61.
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, mfg
Retail sales
Net sales, mfrs
New orders
Freight carloadings
New plant and equipment expenditures
-
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
53
56
56
56
56
57
57
57
57
61
61
62
63
U= unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," 'U.S. series under consideration," and 'international comparisons").
tThis appendix has been dropped from this issue. Page numbers shown are for September issue.
86
74
59
60
60
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
"M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(W, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II.
The general classification follows theapproach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of 25 indicator
36 Leading Indicators
I. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M, I). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M,IV).-Department of Commerce. Bureau of
the Census
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M,II).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,l).«Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,II).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census
. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M, I). -Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI).-Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
. New private nonfarm housing units started (M, III). -Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M, III). --F.W Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q, III). -National Industrial Conference Board
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
Number of new business incorporations (M, III). -Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V). "Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).-- Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V). -Standard
and Poor's,Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories uf
materials and supplies (M, IV). -Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q, IV). -Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate. all industries (Q,V). -Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
Index of industrial materials prices (M,V). -Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,II). -Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*52. Personal income (M,II).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
!. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).~Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods indus
tries (M,lll). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
26. Buying policy=-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.|.--Chicago Purchasing Agents Association: no seasonal adjustment
. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M, I). -Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
*47. Index of industrial production (M,II).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM,VI).-American Bankers Association: seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (IYI,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).~F.W.
Dodge Corporation
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,II). -Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).~
Department of Labor,, Bureau of Labor Statistics,; no seasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III).
National Industrial Conference Board, component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (IVI,VI).- Treasury Department, no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI). ~
First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M,VI). The
Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,I), Department
of Labor,, Bureau of Employment Security, seasonal adjust
ment by Bureau of the Census
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,II).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI). -Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,l) Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l) Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce.
Bureau of the, Census
11 Lagging Indicators
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System, FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,I).-Department of Labor. Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).National Industrial Conference Board
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
P O S T A G E A N D FEES P A I D
U.S.
G O V E R N M E N T PRIN TING O F FlCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).~
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(EOM,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics and Bureau of the Census
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(M,VI).-Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).»Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
16 Other Selected U.S. Series
81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q,VIII).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,VIII).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,VIII).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M.VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
99. New orders, defense products industries (M,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
128. Japan, index of industrial production (IY1).-Ministry of Inter
national Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
. . . United States, index of industrial production (M,ll).-Sec
series 47
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).-Ministry o
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
8 U.S. Series
Under Consideration
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).~ Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).~
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M, VI11).-Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product
account (Q,VIII).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistische:
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National d<
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); nc
seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lstituto Centrale d
Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).~0ffice of the Primi
Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of consumer prices (M,V).~ Set
Series 81
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (WI).-The Financia
Times (London); no seasonal adjustment
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau o
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistische:
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
146. France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National de I;
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasona
adjustment
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M).~lstituto Centrale di Statis
tica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (H/l).-Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stock:
(M,V).-See series 19
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion Bureau ol
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
Diffusion Indexes
19 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Central
Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle serie
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources
See sources above for DI, D5, 06, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47
D54, D58, and D6L Sources for other diffusion indexes ar
as follows:
D34, Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q)-First National Cit
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series coir
ponents. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted b
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economi
Research, Inc.
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by
OECD
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreel
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
126. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National
de fa Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreel
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--lstituto Centrale
di Statistica(Rome)
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Rail
roads; no seasonal adjustment
@FedFRASER