Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1965
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE T. €0$ni«v Secretary THf A* RossEckler, Director Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician PREFACE This report brings tag^tfei m^y of the available ecpiiojriic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation, However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or $ny other government agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis, ft is intended only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions. The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the general business Cycle so that "leads" arid "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. , About 90 principal series and over 3QQ fcoiriponmts are included in preparing the report. The exact number of series inetoded for the total and important classes of series may vary froin month to month because of additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data %re available in published reports. A complete list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear to contain seasonal movement. The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series for business cycle studies, Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of the month following the month of data. October 1965 ^ DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER Series ESI No. 65-10 CONTENTS New Features and Changes for This Issue Data Bank of Business Cycle Series BCD Technical Papers Descriptions and Procedure** Introduction Method of Presentation Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Analytical Measures of Current Change Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns Charts How to Read Charts 1 and 2 TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series iii iv iv 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 24 Analytical Measures TABLE CHART TABLE TABLE 3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods __ 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present 4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes 5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components ABOUT THE COVER— Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period; the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has begun and rise after it ends. 38 39 42 46 CONTENTS CONTINUED Cyclical Comparisons CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles (See September issue) CHART 4. Comparisons of Specific Cycles (See September issue) TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough Dates (See September issue) TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference Trough Dates (See September issue) TABLE 8. Comparisons From Specific Peak and Trough Levels and Specific Trough Dates (See September issue) BCD Technical Paper Summary of the X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program 57 Appendixes Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 (See September issue) Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See September issue) Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle Series (See September issue) Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series (See September issue) Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contrac- tion and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 (See September issue) Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series 73 Index Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes 75 The cyclical comparisons section and appendixes A to E have been dropped from this issue in order to present the BCD Technical Paper: Summary of the X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. i? A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc. Changes in this issue are as follows: 1. The series on labor cost per unit of output (series 62 and 68) and price per unit of labor cost (series 17) have been revised for the period 1948 to date to reflect recent revisions in the national income accounts. 2. A paper, "Summary of the X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program," is included in this report. The cyclical comparisons section usually shown monthly in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS has been omitted from this issue to make room for this paper. The section will be reinstated in the November issue. A full description of X-ll will appear in Census Technical Paper No. 15, "The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program." Copies of this paper will be available from the U.S. Government Printing Office in about 3 weeks. Information concerning the purchase of a Fortran deck for X-ll can be obtained by writing to the Bureau of the Census. 3. Appendix F includes historical data for series 17, 62, and 68. The November issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled for release on November 23. in i'.i:iii 3CD Technical Papers To aid users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS, technical papers dealing with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge. The following papers have been included as part of this program: No. 1.—Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in September 1963 issue). A new version (X-ll) is described in No. 7, below. No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators—The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue). No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in May 1964 issue). No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue). No. 5.—Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue). No. 6.—The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective by Julius Shiskin (published in January 1965 issue). No. 7.—Summary Description of the X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program by Julius Shiskin, Allan H. Young, and John C. Musgrave (published in October 1965 issue). Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, B.C. 20233. Reports in the BUREAU OF THE CENSUS TECHNICAL PAPER SERIES are also useful to BCD readers. Two reports .of particular interest are— Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments, Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 5, by Julius Shiskin (1961), available from the Bureau of the Census at $1 per copy; Estimating Trading-Day Variation in Monthly Economic Time Series, Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 12, by Allan Young (1965), available from Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington D.C., 20402, at 30 cents per copy. The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program, Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, by Julius Shiskin, Allan H. Young, and John C. Musgrave (1965), available from Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. IV V Students of economic conditions describe the business cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in production, employment, income, money flows, prices, and other economic processes. The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway, it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry, from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is reached. Even while expansion is widespread during the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and continue to spread even faster after the peak has been passed. But some activities continue to expand during the general contraction. Before long these expansions become stronger and more widespread. When they begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway. This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic. The causal relations among these various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods, the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs, interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and of debts. Although this pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, today many economists do not consider it inevitable. Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided a list of those significant series that usually lead, those that usually move with, and those that usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac tivity. The series have been grouped and classified by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or "lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as follows : !> NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains to activities in the labor market, another to orders and contracts, and so on. ^ NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and retail sales. %>*• NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are included in this report. Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States are presented. The list of series covered and sources of the basic data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. METHOD OF FRE^UTATJON Data are shown in this report in three general categories, as follows: ^ Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data are shown for business cycle indicators, additional U.S. series with business cycle significance, and industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations. l^r- Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5). — These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the •business cycle, determining the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy, and pointing to developments in particular industries and places. ^ Cyclical Patterns (charts 3, 4; tables 6 to 8). — Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle. In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data, key information, and adjustment factors. OF CYCLE The business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred. Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the time and contraction, 44 percent. A!. STATISTICAL Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain considerable variation attributable to the number of working or trading days in each month. An additional adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates. Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving. In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau of the Census, studies have been started on some series to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods do not at present make any adjustments for such variations. Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data are used only for those series which appear to have no pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or which are based on unpublished source data are not shown. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually longer than a single month because month-to-month changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change from the same month a year ago), and is different for different series (see appendix C for MCD values and method of computation). MCD is, on average, the first span of months for which the average change for the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by the same MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month moving average are commensurate with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular series, such as business failures and Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for such smooth series as industrial production. MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful moving averages (such as the weighted 15-term Spencer curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations. Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually larger than those computed from historical series and shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a fairly long period, one covering both expansions and contractions. Since the pace of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times. Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely to be too high during the early stages of recovery when expansion has usually been rapid and too low during the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance has usually been small. This limitation should be borne in mind when making use of this measure.1 AMAIYICAL MEASUftcS Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of the current changes compared to previous changes, the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places. 1 For a more complete description of MCD and its use in studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961). Timing Distributions Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table 3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented during contractions. To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and at their peaks. To compile timing distributions for the current cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted series—that is, series with negative conformity to the business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month. The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and highlight the current high values during the expansion. The highs designated during the current cyclical phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective business cycle turning point. Interpretations of timing distributions must be made in light of the fact that a contraction following a high value reached several months ago may be the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be reached in some future month. In, short, when the percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a short reversal in the upward movement. Diffusion Indexes Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of groups of economic series. They express, for a given aggregate series, the percent of the series components which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the aggregate and they measure how widespread a business change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity. The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped according to the timing classification of the NBER. For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March, etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans, depending upon the irregularity of the series. The indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and 4-quarter spans. Recent research has shown that the longer-span diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month' indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest available information on changes over that span. If a significant reversal has taken place within that span, the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage of the best features of each in interpreting current changes. Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series, it means that the diffusion index has been computed from components of the indicator series; for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new numbers. Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises (or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag in recognition of actual developments. Direction-of-Change Table The direction-of-change table (table 5) shows directions of change ("-f" for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. This table provides a convenient view of changing business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went up, which went down, and how long such movements have persisted. The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another. Directions of change for most diffusion index components are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either 6- or 9-month spans. OF CYCLICAL In forming a judgment about the current intensity and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the behavior of the indicator series in the current business cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or contraction. Expansions are compared in one way by measuring changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month in the current expansion (shown by number of months from the February 1961 trough) are compared with the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type of comparison is designated as changes computed from reference peak levels and from reference trough dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle peak, and how the current situation compares, in this respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. Expansions are also compared by computing changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the level at the trough. The same situation exists here as for the comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons show the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. Contractions can be compared by computing changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over equal spans from previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is designated as changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made during a contraction period. In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the basis of reference dates (which are the same for all series), comparisons are made on the basis of specific peak and trough dates identified for each series. For example, the specific peak for the index of industrial production is January 1960 (corresponding to the May 1960 reference peak); the specific peak for stock prices is July 1959. (See appendix B.) Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 8. For earlier expansions, these comparisons differ from those shown for reference cycles in that they show only the period up to the next specific peak date and do not include any part of the contraction that followed. In many cases, therefore, the earlier comparisons cover fewer months than those for the current expansion. Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919; therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the period covered by the series used currently. The principal substitutions of this type are as follows: 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (prior to 1948: Residential building contracts, floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.) 41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment) 52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data as published by Barger and Klein) 54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department store sales) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker wage cost per unit). CHARTS Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical time series and cyclical comparisons. Historical Time Series (charts 1 and 2) These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the background of expansions and contractions in general business activity from 1948 to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for a new contraction will be entered only after a trough has been designated. Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series. The scale selected for each series is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series can be compared with each other only where scales are identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help in using these charts. Cyclical Comparisons (charts 3 and 4) These charts compare the performance of selected indicators during the current expansion with their performance during the expansion phase of previous business cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (see chart 3) and specific trough (see chart 4). Thus, these comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to cyclical movements during the expansions of previous cycles. Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart 3 compares the pattern of the current reference cycle (the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phases of previous reference cycles. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle (the cycle for a particular series) with the movements over the corresponding phases of previous specific cycles in that series. In both1 charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 3, the levels of the preceding peaks are also alined while in chart 4, the levels of the troughs are alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons. Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by NBER. CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series See back cover for complete titles and sources of series. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("12" = December) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*) Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("II" = second quarter) Broken Fine indicates actual monthly data for series where an MCD moving average * is plotted. Dotted line indicates anticipated data. 60 50 Parallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.) 40 2 -S2 <^ 30 - Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. Series plotted to different scales are not directly comparable. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Scale shows percent of components rising. 100 Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. 50 0 Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. f\ * Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted ll/2, 2, or 2V2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages. Arabic number indicates .latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("12" = December) Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("111" = third quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various intervals. This line is also used to indicate anticipated quarterly data. Section ONE charts and tables LEADING INDICATORS Sensitive employment and unemployment New investment commitments New businesses and business failures Profits and stock prices Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Production Income and trade Wholesale prices LAGGING INDICATORS Investment expenditures Cost per unit of output Inventories Debt Interest rates OTHER U.S. SERIES Federal budget and military commitments Reserves, money supply, and financing Interest rates foreign trade INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries TABLE f^ BAS|C DATA OCTOBER J965 bed CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS Average percent change 2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg 2. Accession rate, manufacturing 30. Nonagri. placements, all industries 3 Layoff rate, manufacturing 4 Temporary layoff all industries 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 6. New orders, durable goods indus ...... 24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus .... 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial 10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip 11. New capital appropriations, mfg 6 7 Private nonfarm housing starts 29. New bldg. permits, private housing 38 Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations 14 Liabilities of business failures 15 Large business failures 16 Corporate profits after taxes6. 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg 18 Profits per dol of sales mfg 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate all industries6. 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks* 21. Change in business inventories, all industries6'7 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories7 20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7 tories of materials and supplies 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer * 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries* 25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable goods industries 23. Industrial materials prices*. Unit of measure Hours Per 100 empl . . Thous Per 100 empl . . Thous do Bil. dol do Mil. sq. ft. floor space .. Bil. dol do Ann. rate, thous 1957-59-100.. do Number Mil. dol No. per week . . Ann. rate, bil dol 1957-59-100.. Cents Percent 1941-43-10 . . . Ann. rate, bil. dol June 1965 Aug. 1965 July 1965 41.0 4.5 549 1.4 140 40.9 r4.1 541 rl.7 121 1953 to Sept. '64 Sept. '64 to date to date 1963 (without3 (without (with 5 sign) sign) signf Sept. 1965 40.9 P4.0 530 pl.5 110 P40.9 (NA) 528 (NA) 84 0.5 4.8 1.8 9.4 17.8 0.4 4.8 2.5 9.7 20.7 +0.1 +0.6 +0.2 -0.6 +0.2 Current percent change2 June to July 1965 July to Aug. 1965 Aug. to Sept. 1965 0.0 0.0 -0.2 (NA) -8.9 -2.4 -2.0 -1.5 -0.4 (NA) -21.4 +11.8 +13.6 +9.1 +23.6 224 231 248 218 5.3 4.1 +0.8 -3.1 -7.4 +12.1 21.31 4.09 22.20 4.35 r21.46 z-4.16 p21.75 P4.10 3.8 4.5 2.6 2.6 +0.8 +0.9 +4.2 +6.4 -3.3 -4.4 +1.4 -1.4 55.28 4.81 55.90 5.16 49.60 P4.90 (NA) 9.7 4.9 11.4 9.3 3.5 12.3 +0.2 +0.8 +5.9 +1.1 +7.3 -11.3 -5.0 (NA) 1,539 110.6 105.4 16,671 135.66 rl,447 109.7 105.3 16,369 120.64 rl,404 r!07.4 104.2 16,957 128.98 pi, 407 p!02.2 (NA) (NA) 108.56 7.3 3.8 1.0 2.7 16.9 3.7 3.5 0.9 2.1 24.8 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 +0.2 -3.9 -6.0 -0.8 -0.1 -1.8 +11.1 -3.0 -2.1 -1.0 +3.6 -6.9 +0.2 -4.8 (NA) (NA) +15.8 47 39 45 43 13.1 11.4 -1.4 +17.0 -15.4 +4.4 rl03'. 3 r!04.0 (NA) r!03.4 (NA) p!02.1 r5.7 rO.6 6.8 6.0 0.6 7.0 +6.0 +0.1 +1.4 +0.7 (NA) -0.6 (NA) r4.4 4.2 +3.7 2.6 1.7 +0.6 -0.2 +1.9 r2.3 1.9 +0.6 (NA) (NA) (NA) 85.04 84.91 86.49 89.38 +6.1 do +6.1 do (NA) (NA) -1.3 (NA) +3.3 -0.6 IH-11.6 p+7.7 (NA) 3.5 5.6 -0.3 +5.5 -3.9 (NA) -0.5 r+0.7 P+1.5 (NA) 1.5 1.7 -0.1 +1.2 +0.8 (NA) 58 57 60 58 6.8 3.7 -0.2 -1.7 +5.3 -3.3 do 62 62 63 61 5.8 2.4 0.0 0.0 +1.6 -3.2 do 66 62 64 62 7.7 4.9 -1.3 -6.1 +3.2 -3.1 +0.58 115.3 r+0.38 114.6 r+0.27 115.2 p+0.76 114.8 0.49 1.3 0.33 1.3 0.00 +0.5 -0.20 -0.6 -0.11 +0.5 +0.49 -0.3 do Percent do 60,382 67,459 4.7 2.4 r60,602 68,092 4.5 2.3 r60,680 p60,806 67,821 67,777 4.5 4.4 2.6 2.2 0.3 0.4 3.9 5.6 0.4 0.4 3.6 6.4 +0.3 +0.3 +1.1 +1.6 +0.4 +0.9 +4.3 +4.2 do 2.9 3.0 2.9 4.8 2.8 +1.3 -3.4 0.0 +3.3 1957-59-100 . . 146 152 pl60 145 do 144.2 142.7 p!42.8 r!44.3 Ann. rate, bil. dol p609.1 6 do 49 GNP in current dollars p676.9 6 do 57 Final sales p670.8 do 51 Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y 3,019.4 3,021.0 3,018.8 33,022.6 do 52 Personal income 528.8 r532.0 530.5 P545.3 do 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . . P143.6 141.5 142.5 r!43.3 54 Sal es of retail stores Mil. dol 23,331 r23,743 r23,653 p23,344 55. Wholesale prices, except farm products and foods 1957-59-100.. in?.6 rlOP.8 rflOP.Q 102.6 3.1 1.1 2.7 1.0 +2.0 +0.5 -0.7 +1.1 +4.8 +0.1 +5.3 -1.0 rl.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 +1.1 +1.6 +1.5 1.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.8 1.7 +0.8 +0.7 +0.6 +0.4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.7 +1.8 -0.1 +0.3 +0.6 -0.4 +0.1 +2.5 +0.2 -1.3 n ? n i +n i n n j_n o o.n i NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments .. 42. Total nonagricultural employment 43. Unemployment rate, total 40. Unemployment rate, married males 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State 46. Help- wanted advertising 47. Industrial production 6 50. GNP in 1958 dollars Percent Bil. dol 1957-59=100.. Thous 3.0 +0.1 +0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 +2.2 -13.0 +15.4 +1.3 +1.7 +1.8 bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER J965 TABLE CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued Average percent change2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Aug. 1965 Sept. 1965 r98.8 a51.15 r99.8 plOl.O 64! 6 r65.4 (NA) p65.8 22.3 62,256 22.5 62,922 p22.5 63,531 June 1965 July 1965 r9S>!6 do Bil. dol do Mil. dol Unitof measure 1953 to Sept. '64 Sept '64 to date to date 1963 (with (without (without sign) 4 sign)3 sign)5 Current percent change 2 June to July 1965 July to Aug. 1965 Aug. to Sept. 1965 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment6 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP6 64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories 65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of finished goods 66. Consumer installment debt 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans*8 Ann. rate, bil. dol 1957-59-100 .. Percent 4.99 3.2 0.6 2.9 0.7 +2.9 +0.1 -6! 8 +1.6 +1.0 +1.2 (NA) rO.8 0.5 1.0 0.7 +0.4 +0.7 +1.2 (NA) +0.6 (NA) (NA) (NA) 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.0 +0.4 +1.0 +0.9 +1.1 0.0 +1.0 (NA) (NA) 5.00 2.3 0.4 +0.1 • +0.2 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 82 Federal cash payments to public 83 Federal cash receipts from public 84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 7 95. Balance, Federal income and product account 6 ' 7 90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement 91 Defense Dept obligations total 92 Military contract awards in U S 99. New orders, defense products 93. Free reserves*7 85 Change in money supply Ann. rate, bil. dol..... do do 133.0 119.4 -13.6 r!20.2 r!22.1 +1.9 r!29.5 r!21.9 -7.6 137.7 121.4 -16.3 3.7 4.1 4.4 5.1 5.0 11.4 +1.5 +1.0 -1.0 Mil. dol rl,HO 954 (NA) 1,893 (NA) r2.4 26.9 2.1 49.3 +2.1 +19.9 do do Bil. dol Mil. dol Ann. rate, percent r4,520 2,438 2.58 r-184 4,258 2,699 r2.62 -175 5,223 2,770 r2.80 r-136 (NA) (NA) p3.15 P-154 15.1 26.2 23.0 104 12.3 17.4 13.7 65 +13.44 +5.16 +1.44 p+11.76 3.06 6.80 +0.28 -8.28 +12.60 +9.72 2.51 3.03 +0.23 -2.88 +1.08 +8.7 +2.7 (NA) (NA) do 98. Change in money supply and time deposits 7 110 Total private borrowing 6 Ill 112 113. 114 115 116 117 do Ann. rate, mil dol do Corporate gross savings 6 7 Change business loans Ann. rate, bil. dol do Change, consumer installment debt 7 . . . Treasury bill rate* Percent do Treasury bond yields * do Corporate bond yields* do Municipal bond yields* 118 Mortgage yields * 86. Exports, excluding military aid 87 General imports 88 Merchandise trade balance 89 U S balance of payments 6'7 81. 94. 96. 97 Consumer prices Construction contracts, value ... . Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus Backlog of capital appro., mfg 8 do Mil. dol do do do 1957-59=100 . . do Bil. dol do +10.80 pf!2.24 (NA) (NA) +11.38 +7.22 3.81 4.14 4.57 3.24 5.44 2,184-. 8 1,834.8 +350.0 110.2 139 57.45 p!7.06 +10.00 +7.99 3.83 4.15 4.57 3.27 11.6 4.3 8.7 3.6 +5.53 +7.31 3.84 4.19 4.66 3.24 p+4.00 (NA) 3.91 4.25 4.71 3.35 1.22 0.85 7.3 1.8 1.7 2.6 3.00 1.08 1.6 0.4 0.6 1.6 5.45 5.44 2,262.8 2,345.7 1,669.8 1,725.4 +593.0 +620.3 (NA) 5.46 (NA) (NA) (NA) 0.6 4.6 3.6 59.0 267 0.1 18.1 9.7 270.0 796 (NA) (NA) P58.87 (NA) 0.2 7.0 1.5 6.6 0.2 5.5 1.0 5.5 110.0 149 r57.83 110.0 139 r58.10 -9.6 +2.3 +15.5 +7.7 -0.2 -9.5 +6.3 -0.4 -8.7 (NA) -16 [3 +98.4 (NA) -5.8 +22.7 +2.6 (NA) (NA) +2.6 +4.4 +10.7 +1.6 +6.9 +12.5 +5.4 -18 -20 +39 +9 -3.72 HO. 32 +1.44 -0.02 -1.38 -4.47 -1.53 +0.10 +0.77 -0.68 (NA) +1.8 +0.3 +0.9 +0.5 +0.2 +0.2 +1.0 +1.4 0.0 +2.0 +1.1 +0.4 -0.9 +0.3 +0.9 +3.4 0.0 0.0 +0.2 +4.4 +3.6 +3.7 +2.0 -9.0 +3.3 -6.2 f-243.0 +27.3 +281 (NA) +0.2 (NA) (NA) (NA). +0.1 +0.7 +1.0 +5.5 (NA) (NA) +1.3 (NA) -0.2 +7.2 +0.7 0.0 -6.7 +0.5 r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 2, 4, 5, 14,15,40,43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications. 3 This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series. 4 Average computed without regard to sign. 5 Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter. 7 Since basic data for ttos series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent. ^Figures are placed in the last month of quarter. BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators Sensitive employment and unemployment http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 42 . Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours 41 40 39 2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees) 6 5 4 3 30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous.) 700 600 500 400 3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employeesinverted scale) 3 4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term) 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl. insur. (thous.-inverted scale) 200 300 400 500 ^ 3 "I <0 bed CHART OCTOBER 1965 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED NBER Leading Indicators—Continued New investment commitments 30 25 6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dot.) 20 2 15 § 10 5 4 24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (bil. dol.) co -j 2 9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq.ft. of floor area. MCD moving avg.-6 term 70 60 50 2 40 § 30 7 6 5 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.) 2 3 11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. 7 6 5 dol.) •'. CO 4 -^ 7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann.rate, millions. 2.0 MCD moving avg.-6 term) 00 1.5 •£ V V 1.0 29. New bldg. permits, private housing units {index: 1957-59=100) 160 140 „ 120 ~ 100 1 80 11 BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 38. Index of net business formation (1957-59=100) 13. New busj. incorporations (thous.) 14. tiab. of jbus. failures (mil. dol i nyerted. !scpi le,_. MCD _ m oying. 15. Large buis. failures (no. per wk.4 inverted scale. MCD moving avg.j-6 term) ;W See "How to Rgad Charts 1 and 2." pap 8 bed OCrOBEK 7965 CHART BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Profits and stock prices 16. Corporate profits after ttfxes, 0 (ann. rafe, bit.dqt.) • 50 -i 45 J 40 I D 4 ' r 35 30 25 X -^ | 20 \ 15 no 1.7. Ratio, 4iri<k to unit labor cost, m|g. (index: 1957-59=100) : 105 a? •~j 100 I 95 J& Profits -petf dollar of sales, m%, 0 (certh) 14 12 v ? 10 - CO 22.Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries, Q (percent) 16 14 12 10 < 110 I80P ; 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 70 60 50 (index: 1941-43=10) ^ 2 .s? - 40 - 30 J 20 13 BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices 14 21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dol. MCD moving avg.-4 term 20. Change in book value, rrffrs.' inventories of materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dol. MCD moving avg.-5 term) /' 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries 25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. MCD moving avg.-4 term) (bil. dol. 23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100) S-a "How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pa-?' -<• bed bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 CHART BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators 65 Employment and unemployment 60 | 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions) 55 75 70 42. Total nonagri. employment (millions) 65 « £? 60 55 43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale) 3 4 5 6 7 8 40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent-inverted scale) 1 2 3 4 5 6 45. Avg. weekly Insured unemployment rate, State (percent-inverted scale) 2 3 4 7 46. Help-wanted advertising (index; 1957-§9=100) 180 160 140 120 100 ^ 60 15 BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued 47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100) 50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate bil, dojJ! L 49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. Irate, bil. dol.) 57. Final sales, Q (ann. rate, bil. doll.) 250 -J 1949 1958 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 16 Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 19G5 196« See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6 bed CHART OCTOBER 7965 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued 5V. Bonk debits,fall-SMSA's exccjpt-New York (arm, rote, f*iLdol4 52. Personal income (ann,rjte, bil. doll 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr (ann. rape, bit. do!.) 54. Sales of retail stores (bil. doi.) 55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod1, and foods (index: 1957-59=100) 1954 1955 1958 1959 196B 1961 See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," pap 6 17 CHART BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Lagging Indicators 60 50 Investment expenditures 61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100) Cost per unit of output 68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100) 40 2 30 1 20 110 105 100 95 90 85 „ -^ "§ " 110 105 3 100 ^ 95 £» 90 70 64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.) 60 50 „ "I 40 65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.) 25 <? 20 ^ S» —J 15 70 60 66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.) 50 ., •£ 40 § 30 67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent) _ - __ -- i — Interest rates http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis •*y*» bed CHART OCTOBER 7965 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series 140 Federal budget and military commitments 82. Fed. cash payments to public ('aim. rate, bil. do.l. MCD moving avg.-6 term) 120 140 120 83. Fed. cash receipts from public (ann. rate, bil. dol MCD moving avg.-6 term) 100 2 80 * 60 84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (ann. rate, bil. dol MCD moving avg.-6 term) +10 0 -10 95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product qcct. x Q (ann. rate, bil. dol. +10 0 -10 90. Defense DepiobJig., procurement (bil. dol MCD moving, ava,.-6 term) ~ - - j» 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 \ 91. Defense ~Dept. oblig,, total (bil. dol MCD moving avg.-6 term) 92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol. MCD moving avg.-6 term) •i 3 . . •? 3 —| 2 i 99. New order^dftfense pxoiiucts (bil. dol. MCD moving ?vg.-6 term) S.1: Her.' to »eaj Cl^fo 1 a^d 2 ' i'2u »; 1 -- 19 BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Reserves, money supply, and financing +1.0 dol.) +0.5 0 -0.5 + 12 85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent. MCD moving avg. -6 term) +6 0 -6 +12 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (ann. rate, percent.'MCD moving ayg. —6 term) +6 0 80 7° 60 110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 50 40 60 50 40 HI. Corporate gross savings, Q {ann. rate, btl. dol.) 30 - + 12 -+9 112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. .+6 dot. MCD moving avg.-5 term) .+3 . 0 . +9 113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. +6 +3 0 -3 bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 CHART BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Interest rates 114. Treasury bill rate (percent) 3 i 115. Treasury bond yields (percent) 2 116. Corporate bond yields (percent) 5 4 3 117. Municipal bond yields! (percent) ...>..,, 1 -J 4 118. Mortgage yields (percent) t- 5 J 4 21 CHART BA$IC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Foreign trade 86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. 87. General imports (bil. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 dol.) ^ -^ •§ " 2.0 1.8 1.6 dol.) 1.4 ^ 1.2 | 1.0 88. Merchandise trade balance (bil. 0.8 dol.) +1.0 + 0.5 89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil, 0 +1 dol.) -1 115 110 -i 105 $ 100 "» 81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100) 94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100. MCD moving avg.-5 term) > A, 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.) 97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, m(g., Q (bil. 'r * i > > t ' ' '• ' " " < - t . " ,' it1'' '- >v.- u dol.) 160 140 120 100 70 60 50 40 18 16 14 12 10 ^ ^ •§ * bed CHART OCTOBER 7965 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued International Comparisons 150 industrial production indexes .s, 130 | 47. United States (index: 1957-59=100) 110 150 -^ CS| 130 123. Canada (index: 1957-59=100) t 110 - * 140 ^ 122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59=100) 120 ^ 121, OECO European countries (index: 1957-59=100) 100 * 150 cv, 130 i 110 8 160 CS! 140 ^ 125. West Germany (index: 1957-59=100) 120 8 280 260 240 220 200 2 180 | 160 ** 140 120 160 140 126. France (index: 1957-59=100) 2 120 |j 100 180 160 140 120 ^ 100 * 60 > •fffi'tflrri&t t7\*,'- * if.%Xr -3>iW? ^^^ %| ^ |,|%| m py^LrF/,/?^/ 23 TABLE BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES NBER Leading Indicators Year and month 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours) 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December 40.1 40.4 40.5 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) 4.3 3. Layoff rate, 30. Nonagricultural placements, manufacturing all industries (Thous.) (Per 100 employees) 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries1 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 2 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (Thous.) (Thous.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 557 557 569 569 5U586 1.8 135 301 1.9 561 2.0 557 553 551 557 565 543 2 1 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 88 118 107 126 124 128 127 127 125 133 120 295 287 283 301 304 303 305 300 304 299 310 17 70 17.70 17 15 17.02 17 22 16 65 16 91 16.59 16.55 17.29 16 73 17.33 3 15 3 30 2 97 3.31 3 10 3 02 3 07 2 94 2.98 3.05 3 16 3 07 18.47 18.23 18.78 19.04 18.74 17.68 18.28 18.06 18.24 18.62 18.11 17.97 3 25 3.21 3 22 3.35 3.42 3.29 3.33 3.31 3.42 3.44 3.27 3.61 19 74 3 62 3 /i 40.6 40.4 40.4 40.5 40.3 40.5 40.2 40.4 40.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 40.5 40.3 40.4 40.1 40.4 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.5 40.6 40.5 40.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 4.0 552 554 555 557 546 545 541 543 553 575 533 525 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 152 121 107 138 95 92 131 130 108 135 134 97 310 301 288 293 288 284 281 290 285 282 276 301 40.2 40 7 40.6 40.7 40.6 40.6 40.6 40 8 40.5 40.5 40.9 41.2 3.8 534 532 522 519 526 520 523 502 516 519 549 518 - 1 7 18 18 17 17 16 2 0 "1 / 15 17 15 16 116 125 98 122 111 121 118 91 121 92 8Q 109 284 270 277 265 262 257 260 ?// 2/5 520 548 527 531 •529 549 541 530 528 14 13 [H]! 3 15 1 / 14 OH) 79 4 0 4 0 3 9 3.8 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 1 0 0 8 0 1 1 17 1.8 2 0 P/Q 262 251 1Q SO 19 20 19 20 26 46 94 02 pi 1q 19 19 1q 3 3 3 3 3 q Z.6 61 Q3 Q? 77 77 pc; Q/ Ql 62 / c. 3 88 20 72 3 Q? 3 69 3 7Q 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 41.4 41.3 JHI41.4 40.9 41.1 41.0 40.9 40.9 P40.9 4 0 4.1 4 3 3.9 4 0 jjT|4 5 r4.1 p4 0 (NA) rl 7 nl P-L . J*> CNA! 124 110 117 102 140 121 110 $/ 2/3 248 p^7 237 ??/ 224 231 248 OH 218 21 27 3 Q6 21 13 21 71 22 04 3 80 PO qq 21 31 fiHJ22 20 r21 46 nPl 7S / 09 4 08 / r\7 / OQ fTJj/ IK. T! 1 A n/ in NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by ED; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by {H}. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the 2 1950 Census is used as the benchmark. Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December (Mil. sq. ft. floor space) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Bil. dol.) 3B 70 42 75 45 90 42 72 44.64 41.16 40 56 42.69 40.96 41.08 42.20 41 . 89 3 71 4/ . 61 45.11 39.42 40.23 47.00 51.39 45.78 44.93 43 88 50.81 43.73 45 43 3 84 3.98 11. Newly approved 7. New private capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling tions, 1,000 manu- units started facturing corporations * (Bil. dol.) 3.03 3 71 3 96 3.76 3.66 2.53 3 72 3.61 3.56 3.66 3.82 3.99 3.82 2.81 3.35 2.80 3 75 3.98 4.28 3.30 3.72 4 08 4 17 4.32 38. Index of net business formation 13. Number of new business incorporations (1957-59-100) (1957-59=100) (Number) 1 470 1 296 1 422 1 494 1 5"i 5 1,365 1 409 1 531 1,300 1 410 1 634 1 521 103 8 109 1 97 2 104 o 98 97 97 97 97 98 1 285 111 8 108.2 112 9 113 6 120 0 1 1Q 3 116 5 113 5 121 0 123 6 119 9 (Ann. rate, thous.) 1 1 1 1 /38 /£A A^9 676 i ^^n 3 96 3 94 3.91 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 1 tfj I 1 ^,99 1 A7A n 7nA 4 10 4 56 1 ^Q9 -| C99 1, 9<c<c 111 9 103 8 106 1 108 7 107 1 109.1 107 2 113.0 112.0 1 23 7 97.8 1 8 8 6 7 4 98.5 98 5 98.0 98.3 15 599 15,758 15 670 15 372 15,245 14,947 15 171 15,056 15,249 14,892 14,951 14,985 9 2 5 2 6 0 7 7 4 7 4 8 14 924 15,3Q0 15 563 15 305 15 682 1 £> ^A 15 431 16 093 15 689 16 275 15 759 i n^ i i A 9^n iA m & 98 100 100 99 99 100 100 101 101 101 101 101 1 £> #A7 14. Current liabilities of business failures (Mil. dol.) 101 53 86 03 77 40 107 15 89.80 93 15 107 98 121 85 106.02 129 87 96.62 99.61 146 93 94 88 115 91 144 JE152 Q/ 99 255 87 46 05 12 15 05 07 50 86 6? 92 72 17 1964 January March April May June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May , y June July August September October November December 51 07 51 05 48 41 53.48 46.22 47 82 52.62 47.72 51.41 53.75 49.61 58.88 / 3$ I i/ 4.36 4.63 4.52 4.53 4-51 4.56 4.92 4.94 / 79 / A*7 *>/ o/ / c>/ /Q An (MA \ 4 81 4 64 ZQ -i 9 ^ QD ?Q / n 53 20 lTil6/ 9A 56 13 *>*> 98 / 4« 04 / 70 no 4. c. no 5.00 4.52 Qn / T\T ft ^ VINA; -1 / rjr 1 / 09 1,4/2 1 / dn 1 / &D l,4oU c^c •«-] / QQ 4.77 ... nn -n^i 3 / rrTi/r -i /^ P4« 7U -) /QA 1,470 i £.0,7 I, 27^ 1,4^ 1 /QC, / 3i -p./ •(131,753 1,706 1, 571 i c,nA /TVTA \ iJMAj I / 1 "7 y Art 1,400 / Ac, I,4t>9 09 1, r9J2 1 cn-| OQ 1, C2jy _,-] / / r-j ri,44/ _,-i y n / rl,4U4 pi , 407 1 1A # nrn 9/ A m o 113 112 11 5 111 113 109 109 110 105 6 9 1 5 4 7 1 8 4 112.9 108.0 112. 0 104.7 109.4 110.6 109.7 r!07 . 4 p!02.2 1 H9 8 "] no n 104 104 103 102 102 4 7 2 5 9 105 o 107 0 106 4 106 6 [HJ107.3 106.6 105 .0 103.6 104.3 105.4 105.3 104.2 /•vr A \ (NA) QI AQ 1 1 Q.9Q ny tci 1 c; QQ9 -| -i n 16 180 1 S 917 107 10 Q7 Q? 1 ^ Q~l Q 1 ^A 1Q 195 1 / 1 *> Q7Q 16 16 16 17 17 074 605 493 103 154 17,275 El7,367 17,112 16,504 16,043 -. s Sr~i-\ 16,671 i / o/ln 16,369 16,957 / •, T . N (NA) £.0 90 99 11 3 SQ 97 98 111 00 126 49 84.54 107. 57 146 . 29 79.51 "1 QQ O.Q 1J9 .UV -I 0£- // 1J5.DD -i 9f~\ / / ±fi(J .O4 -i 9rt Q rt 1 pvrj r/ lUo. 90 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by ®; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •""Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.) TABLE BASIC DATA OCTOBER J965 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month 15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over (Number per week) 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 37 [S)32 36 38 38 41 38 £-5 40 46 42 37 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 49 43 42 40 51 38 39 42 43 42 38 38 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December 41 41 38 44 39 39 44 40 42 42 42 40 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 35 40 42 33 47 47 39 45 43 16. Corporate profits after taxes (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 30 7 30.9 31.5 31.8 31.2 32.6 32.8 33.8 36.7 37.0 37.5 37.8 44.0 1344.4 (NA) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, manufacturing 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries (1957-59-100) Revisedl 100 9 101.0 101.2 100.1 100.1 99.7 100.2 100.0 100.7 100.2 100.4 99.9 (Cents) (Percent) 99 7 100.1 100.5 100.8 101.3 102.2 101.7 100.9 101.0 101.5 100.8 100.8 101.6 101.9 101.3 101.9 101.7 100.8 101.2 101.6 100.8 100.6 101.8 102.6 102 5 102.2 102 8 102.5 102 8 103 3 133104 o 103 4 p!02 1 8.4 11.3 8.1 11.1 8.1 11.2 8.1 11.1 8.1 10 8 8.5 11.2 8.6 11.2 8.8 11.3 9.0 11.9 8.9 11.7 9.0 11.7 8.7 11.7 1709 8 Q 1 (NA) 19. Index of stock 21. Change in prices, 500 common business inventories stocks* after valuation adjustment, all industries (1941-43-10) 69 07 70 22 70 29 68.05 62.99 55 63 56.97 58.52 58.00 56.17 60.04 62.64 65.06 65.92 65.67 68.76 70.14 70.11 69.07 70.98 72 85 73.03 72.62 74.17 76.45 77.39 78.80 79.94 80.72 80.24 83.22 82.00 83.41 84.85 85.44 83.96 iH]13 1 13 0 (NA) 86 86 86 87 89 #^ #y 12 75 83 97 28 o/ QI £A /Q (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) +6 7 +6.1 +5.2 +6.4 +4 5 +4.7 +5.8 +8.1 +3.3 +4.1 +3.8 +7.5 'E+8.7 +6 7 +6 1 rnl#Q oa 2 q-i £o NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated indi-by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" inHi cates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 Average for October 15, 18, and 19. bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month 1962 31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies l 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer* 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries* 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 23. Index of industrial materials prices* (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent reporting) (Percent reporting) (Percent reporting) (Bil. dol.) (1957-59=100) January February March April Mav , " June July August September October November December 57 61 56 55 49 52 58 52 52 55 52 51 56 56 55 48 46 42 44 44 48 48 48 48 +0.63 +0.62 -0.3 +1.8 -0 2 +0.5 -1.7 60 59 58 54 51 47 44 45 43 46 50 49 -0.67 -0.34 -0.46 -0.37 -0.25 -0.60 -0.36 +0.21 -0.40 +0.91 102.9 100.6 100.4 98.3 97.8 95.4 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.9 96.4 95.8 +3.1 +2 5 +3.0 +4.6 +2.7 +5 1 +6.0 +1 8 +5.6 +7 1 +9.6 +7 2 +0.6 +0.4 -0.2 +0.9 -0.3 +0 7 -0 5 +1.7 -0.4 +1 7 -0.2 -0 7 47 48 47 48 55 56 55 50 49 46 43 43 50 55 54 53 52 57 54 55 56 53 54 55 50 52 54 60 58 54 49 48 52 48 48 46 +0.96 +0.68 +0.94 +0.85 +0.33 -0 58 -0 54 -0 05 +0.38 +0 10 -0 09 0 40 95.5 95.1 94.4 94.5 95.2 93 9 94 2 94 2 94.1 96 3 97 3 97 7 +5 1 -1 9 0 5 0 0 -1.0 -0.1 -0.7 -1.6 +1.3 +2.6 +4.3 +3.5 +2.0 42 50 53 98 5 +0 57 +0 16 +1 04 +0.38 +0 81 [3+1 26 +0 06 +0 77 +1 00' +0 27 +0 55 Q# 5 Q# Q 53 51 55 57 56 60 58 60 58 56 59 58 59 58 58 61 60 64 65 55 5/ 60 60 63 55 59 65 0374 72 70 66 +o 40 6Z +1 0 +0 4 An AT A^ A^ +6:0 + 5.7 +6.0 +2 6 +7.1 + 5.6 +3.9 +2.0 + 5.6 +5 5 +1.2 +5.1 +1.9 +3.0 +2.7 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.4 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January +2 3 March +1 7 April May , y June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May June July August September October November December +8.0 +4.3 +2.2 +1.2 +2.9 +10.7 +0.4 +9.4 FJ3+U.6 ,. +11 2 +5 0 +13 8 +8 7 +9 4 +6.1 r+11 6 p+7 7 (NA) -LO C. +c> ? -4-1 *> 0 5 r+0 7 £/ ^7 fiTiA# i~HlAl A7 An ^£ At; to Ao A9 A^ Oj) AT ^7 rvl-1 ^ P+-L. J An (MfiS ctf Art _u.n I"7Q _i_n &T AA 179 r~ir\ AA A9 A y 04 Ao "39 i r\ i i i r\ c& +U.44 _i_n &/ _i_n pO c.r\ +u. T'-i-n ^^ -ru_n r+u .0*7 2( •n-Ln ^A 102 4 100.9 101 4 102 5 105 7 108 2 112 0 113 2 112 5 inn A inn 110. /*7 11 q o llj). £ ~\ n A "7 l"H]ll6.9 1 -i c q lip..? m£ lie o lit). 2 -i -) / rt 114. o 2 -i -t i 114.4 i NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by (Hi. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. [H] = December 1961. 3 Average for October 14, 15, and 18. 27 TABLE BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators Year and month 41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments (Thous.) 1962 January February March April May June JU|y August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 42. Total non43. Unemployment agricultural employ- rate, totall ment, labor force survey1 (Thous.) 54,695 55 003 55,162 55,411 55,502 55,565 55,657 55,673 55,767 55,802 55,874 55,881 61 ,948 62 162 62,234 62,167 62,565 62,693 62,623 63,015 63,147 63,070 62,921 63,336 55,900 56,044 56,187 56,368 56,511 56,601 56,763 56,768 56,868 57,070 57,101 57,291 63,133 63,230 63,487 63,708 63,613 63,825 64,055 64,089 64,253 64,205 64,371 64,449 57,334 57,684 57,754 57,827 57,931 58,10^ 58,256 58,301 58,458 58,382 58,878 59,206 59,334 59,676 59,992 59,913 60,110 60,382 r60,602 r60,680 [Hjp60,806 (Percent) 40. Unemployment 45. Average 46. Index of helprate, married wanted advertising weekly insured 1 unemployment rate, in newspapers males 2 State programs 47. Index of industrial production (Percent) (1957-59-100) (Percent) (1957-59=100) 1 1/ 115 0 116 4 3 7 3 3 3 6 3.7 3 5 3.7 3 6 3 7 3.5 3 5 3 5 3.5 L L 11^ 117 ^ 3.9 3 8 4 0 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 7 112 114 109 110 108 107 107 107 e!07 118 0 118 2 118 1 119 0 119 0 119 7 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.5 3 7 3.7 3 5 3 4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 e!07 e!09 e!08 109 105 104 109 105 107 111 112 118 119 8 120 6 1 ?1 Q 122 7 124.4 125 6 125.6 125 4 125.7 126.1 126.1 127 0 64,685 65,051 65,175 65,695 65,790 65,519 65,632 65,641 65,650 65,658 66,084 66,463 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.6 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3 6 3.6 3 5 3.4 3.4 3 4 3 6 116 117 118 120 118 121 124 123 126 127 134 137 127 9 128 4 129 3 130 8 131.8 132 0 133.3 134.0 134.0 131.6 135.4 138.1 66,771 66,709 66,890 66,874 66,979 67,459 [H]68,092 67,821 67 , 777 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.7 2 7 2.6 2.5 2 5 2.5 2.4 2 3 2.6 ©2 2 3 4 3 3 3.1 3 1 2.9 2.9 3 0 3 0 137 145 148 143 1/5 146 -i / c 138 6 5 8 5 5 5 5 5.6 5 5 5.5 5 5 5 7 5.6 5 4 5 8 5.5 5.7 5.9 5 7 4 5 4 5 034 4 4 7 / *> fin? Q "I"! 5 1 ^9 rrj-.-pil (~r\ 11Q 1 119 8 119 4 1 ^Q ? 140 7 i /o Q 141 6 142 7 i// ? Fwlrl// 3 •nl / 9 # NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high values are indicated by (E; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benckmark for computing this series. Prior, to April 1962, the 2 1950 Census is used as the benchmark. Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 28 bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER J965 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued Year and month 1962 50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) January February March April May June July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June 57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, (series 49 minus allSMSA's except New York series 21) (224 SMSA's) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 519.7 547.8 541.1 527.9 557.2 551.1 533.6 564.4 559.2 538.5 572.0 565.6 541.2 577 0 572 5 544.9 583 1 578 4 JUly August September ........ October November December 553.7 560.0 1964 January February cjfV7 "1 593 1 603 6 614 o 587 3 595 5 Ai n 7 /30 7 2,155.9 2,233.1 2,299 6 2,266 6 2 , 249 . 9 2 311 3 2 268 8 2,236 7 2,340.7 2,351 5 2,324.9 433 437 439 440 441 //3 444 447 447 450 452 1965 January February March April May , y June July August September October November December 582 6 584.7 597.5 601.4 i7fjp609.1 634 8 641.1 656 4 665 9 [H]p676 9 620 1 631 o 633 6 647 6 Ae;q p rmTiA7O & (Mil. dol.) 55. Index of wholesale prices except farm products and foods (1957-59-100) 114 3 115 5 116 7 118 3 118 0 118 0 118 8 118 7 119.5 118.9 119 7 119 7 18,990 19,139 19,320 19 389 19 585 19 311 1Q 668 19 671 19 844 19,837 20 112 20 253 100 . 8 100.7 100.7 100 7 100 9 100 8 100 9 100 8 100 9 100 9 100 8 100 7 120 1 120 0 120 8 120 7 122 0 1 PQ n 1 p-2 q l PQ / 20 387 20 666 i py y 90 / PA 100 5 100 5 100 5 100 4 100 5 i on 8 100 9 100 9 i no 8 i pc 1 90 71 A 1 OO Q 1 PS 7 PO 1 97 1 91 ni Q m 1 9^1 r 91 nnn 1 Ol 1 -| Qr; Q 91 PJ5J5 CIQ'^ 21, 1 o 4«4.p 487 7 /Q1 9 1 O& "2 12o.p 1 90 c 21, 223 ?Q9 101 . 2 1 01 P 1 ^0 ? PI 777 101 1 -i on Q 1 Q-| c 91 77"3 91 Q ^ S 1 Ol P p A$i 7 yqp o yqA -i /QQ S 1 ^P A 99 1 Ol P 2 ? 2 2 501 502 506 512 7 8 6 0 133 8 PP PS/ 101 3 i -29 A PI ^8^ 1 Ol 1 "3S 1 21 661 99 7$-| 1 Ol A 1 Ol 7 2,416 2 2 345 9 2,357 2 2 472 5 2 419 2 2 368 2 2 561 0 2 463 1 2 559 0 2 605 5 2 527 4 2 610 2 7 2 8 8 8 /, 6 0 9 4 6 456 6 /, S/ Q /,S6 7 y £7 p 460 o /A? 1 464 467 i AQ 770 8 1 ? p y7/ 7 y 78 Q ? S71 S y cJ-| p cqn ^ / 8*2 o 4oj5.^ 9 624.2 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2,260.6 W7 Q 2 693 8 575.9 53. Labor income 54. Sales of in mining, manu- retail stores facturing, and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) <•}?? I • J April May June July August September October November December 52. Personal income 2 688 4 2 607 4 2 746 7 755 771 730 803 9 S 3 5 / rt / p r ? 80^ 1 515 8 p S 1 SI S 7 2 923 8 2 962 0 £pO 7 P 3 7 3 ft/ 871 01 Q npl 018 S / n 8 [H]p3 022 6 SI 8 / cpc -2 -1-27-3 1 37 8 -i qq n 1/0 / 1 -20 7 T yn A 528 8 1/1 S con S i y 99 £; 14^. -pcqp n -pi y o o nun r> s / s ? iTjl nl y 1 A pn 77 y, PO 20 20 9D 90 91 3 SO 276 200 /8A 7-1 q SS8 9AA 99 QDD 9-2 -2-1 17 J5l / 99 Q(~)S <cJ, 99 8AS pq -2CP <.J, Jj£ p-2 -2 on <.J> JJ±- 1771 -yiQO "7 / -2 LHj r^jj, /4^ r»O7 DPP A^^ r<ij5, T-QQ Q y y p^p, p44 100 9 i r\-\ 1 Ol O S 1 Ol 7 1 Ol q 1 OP 1 1 OP P 1 OP ? 1 OP A -i fi9 A rO O9 8 fwl-nl O9 Q 1 -i no >7 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by 0, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 Week ended October 12. TABLE BASIC DATA OCTOBER J965 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Lagging Indicators Year and month 61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 35.70 36.95 38.3$ 37.95 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP (1957-59=100) Revised 1 (1957-59=100) Revised1 99 7 99 7 99 5 100.7 100 8 101 1 100 7 100 9 100.4. 100 6 100.3 100.7 103.0 103.7 103.3 103.3 64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories (Bil. dol.) 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods (Mil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 55 4 55 7 56 0 56.1 56 4 56 3 56 9 57 0 57.3 57 4 57 6 57 8 66. Consumer installment debt 19 0 19 1 1Q 1 19.2 19 3 19 4 1Q 5 19 5 19 7 1Q 7 19 8 19 8 /P 960 43 220 / 3 S3? 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities* (Percent) / Q# 44,017 // /37 44 45 45 45 46 46 826 200 588 838 206 689 /7 1 7/ 5 01 4 99 ... (35 02 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 36 95 38.05 4.0.00 4.1.20 100 6 100 2 99 7 99 5 99.3 98 7 99.3 100.1 99.7 99.8 100.0 100.0 104. o 104.2 103.9 104.7 57 58 58 58 '58 58 58 58 59 59 59 60 Q 0 1 3 5 7 9 9 1 3 8 1 1Q 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 Q 0 0 0 1 3 3 4 6 6 0 2 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 6l 61 62 62 0 1 3 5 5 4 5 8 0 8 4 9 21 21 21 21 21 2 / A 6 6 63 63 63 64 6/ 64 2 4 7 0 3 6 in AS9 ... /& 1 S/ / $ 631 /Q 1 SP 5 00 ... 49 593 SO 07Q S 01 50 588 51 069 SI /1 0 SI 9/1 s m 52 324 SP 7$/ 5 00 S3 PI P S3 7Q1 ... 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December 4-2.55 A3. 50 45 65 47 75 99 3 99.1 99.7 99 3 99 3 100 0 99 7 99 5 100 3 0101 2 99 5 98.9 104 2 104 6 105 1 (HJ106 3 pi ^ 21 6 21*6 21 6 21 8 54 54 55 SS 315 727 220 SQO / 99 SA 07? ... sA so# 22 2 S7 S7 S7 S£ 22 4 op / S# QAP SQ 60 3 pp c An p/n An Q#/ PI Q / 99 OP1 / 31 73P PQP / 9$ ... 5 00 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 9£ Q 49.00 [HI 50. 35 a51 15 QQ C QQ ~] QQ £ 77. o QQ £ QQ A 98 8 QQ £ 105 2 ... 106 2 ... rAS / CMA^ rfi m n TTTI'nAS $ (NA^ pp Q pp / pp Q pp £ mV-nPP S IHJP^'C. p C\ !"•"•/ MA^ Al As/ Ao o^A AP QP9 rui A? ,ci^)j>L "3T IHJUJ? ?TU- A ^ ^INA; / 97 ... / QQ 4.77 ... s nn aS? 9S NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by EH). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve 30Bank of St. Louis iii. bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER J965 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series Year and month 82. Federal cash payments to the public 1962 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) January February March April May June July August September October November December 109 9 113.5 107 8 108 3 108 6 111 5 113 5 108 1 113 4 113 7 118 6 11 / 9 102.2 101.8 101 1 105.2 108 6 104. 5 110. A 107.7 108 4 107.1 110 1 108 4 1963 January February March April May , y June July August September October November December 112.4 109.6 116.6 113.5 116 3 115 3 120.5 121 9 119.9 122.0 119 3 117.2 108 6 109.9 110 5 108 0 1964 January February Msrch April May June July August September October November December 125.9 119 2 120 4 122.6 119.1 116.7 r!22.8 121 6 117.9 118. A 112.9 126.5 115 9 120 5 117 1 121.4 108.7 113.8 rll4.0 111.7 113.0 115.1 114.9 114.5 121.8 121.8 117.4 125.2 128.8 133.0 r!20.2 r!29.5 137 7 114.0 120 1 124 5 1 53 5 1965 January February March April May . y June July August September October November December 114. o 112 7 112 9 116 5 112 6 114.. 7 114 9 118.1 1 1Q Q 119 4 r!22 1 r!21 9 121 4 95. Surplus (+) or deficit (-), Federal income and product account 84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit (-) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) -7 7 -11.7 6 7 -3 1 0 0 7 0 -3 1 -5.0 4 6 -2 6 -0.4 5 6 8 6 0 6 5 5 -3 +0 6 5 p 8 3 1 5 Q +1 8 2 6 7 6 5 / +0 6 -3 2 -2 5 7 3 7 3 / / +0 Q +1 2 -10 0 +1 3 3 3 2 6 -7.6 -8.8 -9 9 -4 9 -3 3 -3 6 +2.0 -1.1 -12.0 -7 1 +7 +28 8 13 8 7 1 3 9 6 +2 5 +2 8 4-1 Q 7 6 -16 3 (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) A 477 3 999 l 311 / 08? 1 930 1 657 4 4 3 4 4 4 517 385 892 535 920 140 2 2 2 2 2 1 017 149 111 983 734 984 4 632 4 137 2 2 2 1 ? 2 2 198 435 154 966 2/0 334 419 1 039 1 1 1 1 1 395 040 675 787 205 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 586 206 366 215 358 363 132 700 207 010 09 / 273 1 075 1 8/3 937 4,086 L L 421 233 4 078 / 507 L Z.81 4 349 7 580 4 160 5 112 L 093 / 371 L 351 5 317 / 1 33 1,389 1 910 4,544 4 818 1 079 / 3/9 1 494 803 1 1/1 889 1 089 1 870 4 677 966 603 1 735 4 278 1 557 / 593 / A^n 1 5^7 rl 140 / 237 4 3 4 5 405 773 228 325 3 839 / Ap/ ? 733 2 2 1 2 578 086 681 079 2 149 ? 6$Q 1 5Q# 2,508 2 454 1 879 2 904 1 9?6 2 191 1 745 2 008 1 883 1 830 1 628 1 #7/ p QpA p 095 r4 520 / ?5# ? /3£ p Ann 1 893 5 2?3 2 770 (NAl (NA) 95/ (NA^ 4 434 92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms 3 073 2,135 2 225 2 062 1 887 1 758 1,228 1 410 1 791 1 -1.2 -10.4 -2 9 91. Defense 90, Defense Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total f TVTA \ NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 31 BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued 99. New orders, defense products 93. Free reserves* (Bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) Year and month 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 85. Change in total U.S. money supply 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) 1 99 2.05 2 11 2.24 2.24 2.08 2.07 1 94 1.88 2.09 1.70 2 53 +555 +434 +382 +441 +440 +391 +440 +439 +375 +419 +473 +268 0 00 +2.52 +1 68 +4.08 3 24 +0 84 -0 84 0 84 -1 68 +4 92 +4.08 +4 92 +7 +11 +Q +8 +1 +6 +5 +4 +4 +9 +8 +10 32 52 36 76 56 12 04 08 56 48 40 80 2 89 2 09 2.42 1 97 2.40 1.90 2.40 +375 +301 +269 +31 3 +247 +138 +161 +133 +4 08 +4 92 +1.56 +4 08 +3 24 +3.96 +6 36 +2 40 +2 40 + 5 52 +7 08 0 84 +8 +8 +7 +7 +6 +7 +9 +8 76 76 20 68 24 08 00 88 111. Corporate gross savings 112. Change in business loans (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 43 480 36 664 53 388 37 780 /£ Q79 3Q +2 +1 ju2 +2 +2 +2 +2 90 51 23 09 09 77 66 0/0 + 3 #5 40 296 +2 82 +2 28 +2 82 48 536 +0 Q5 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 2.36 +91 +94 +33 2 47 1.92 1.97 1.48 2.67 2.40 2.18 2.37 2.48 2.34 3.29 1.86 1.98 2.41 1.79 1.87 2 ? 2 3 2 9 r2 r2 37 // 46 9/ 46 5# 62 80 -P,^ 1£ +209 +175 +89 +99 +167 +82 +120 +135 +83 +89 +106 -34 +168 i 1 r\ / / i / r» 1 &1 1nr 7- 9$ 1 ^A •n I S / p-J-24 9 9# C.f~. 4-A nn A 1 A i -I o ;/ , C -I t +lj>.44 1 1 / / +1. 44 _ , 1 1 1-7 /i P+ll. /D i 17 QO + / . V<c , f. 55 916 38 652 +1 Q7 57 3/8 40 372 58 772 39 892 52,448 44 200 66 524 45 064 57 548 45 468 61 204 44 876 CO , 2j5D /: r OQ£, 49,124 73,740 49 , 040 +12.60 +9.72 p+12.24 +2 +2 +4 +5 +5 04 08 66 22 78 +1 +3 +1 +3 +4 +3 +4 +4 +4 7Q 48 42 17 25 89 31 78 28 +1 / 3 +b. VD -i-Q +y . nn UU +10.80 +2 35 +1 74 Q/ Onn +1 42 +1 85 _LO /n U SA 16 88 44 76 92 72 76 12 48 52 04 88 7£ 1 7# +8 76 +11 04 +8 +5 +4 +5 +4 +9 +8 +9 +9 +8 +8 +8 4-9 38 6Q9 / £ +3 96 +1.56 +2.40 +3 12 0 00 +7 80 +8 52 +3 84 +8 40 +4 56 +2 28 +4 56 +103 + 39 119 _i_A +1 / 3 44 628 (NA) /1VT. N /"iVTA "\ (NA) +0 32 +8 62 +12.35 +13.14 +12.46 / ^_ +6.32 +11.04 +11.38 +10.00 +5.53 p+4.00 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 32 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Year and month 1962 113. Net change in consumer installment debt (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 114. Treasury bill rate* (Percent) 115. Treasury bond yields* (Percent) 86. Exports excluding military aid shipments, total 116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage yields* yields* yields* (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Mil. dol.) January February March April May June July August September October November December +2.P3 +3.12 +3 74 + 5.82 +5.04 +4 67 +4.49 +4.66 +3 00 +4.4-2 ^5.80 + 5.82 2 75 2 75 2 72 2 74 2 69 2 72 2 94 2.84 2 79 2 75 2.80 2.86 4 08 4 09 4 01 3 89 3 88 3 90 4 02 3 98 3 94 3 89 3.87 3.87 4 55 4 54 4 42 4 31 4 26 4 30 4 41 4 39 4 28 4 27 4 23 4.28 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 34 21 1/ 06 11 26 28 23 11 02 04 07 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 69 68 65 64 60 5Q 58 57 56 55 54 53 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December +5.82 +5.94 + 5.72 +6.25 +5.29 + 5.83 +6.11 +5.77 +4.09 +6.37 +4 60 + 5.52 2.91 2 92 2.90 2.91 2.92 3 00 3.14 3.32 3 38 3.45 3 52 3 52 3.89 3 92 3.93 3 97 3 97 4 00 4 01 3.99 4 04 4.07 4 11 4 14 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 / 4 22 25 26 35 35 32 34 33 40 36 /2 49 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 15 05 10 11 21 22 13 20 20 30 27 5 5 5 5 5 52 48 47 46 /5 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December + 5.14 +6 95 +6 29 +4.94 +5.92 +4.44 + 5.80 + 5.22 +6.16 +4.92 +3.61 +6.72 3 53 3 53 3 55 3.48 3.48 3 48 3 48 3.51 3.53 3 58 3.62 3.86 4 15 4 14 4 18 4.20 4 16 4 13 4 13 4 14 4.16 4 16 4 12 4 14 4 / / 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 49 38 /5 49 48 49 43 43 49 49 47 47 1 22 3 1/ +8.04 +7.69 +7.64 +8.93 +8.04 +7.22 +7.99 +7.31 3.83 3.93 3.94 3.93 3 90 3.81 3 83 3.84 3.91 4 14 4.16 4.15 4.15 4 14 4.14 4 15 4.19 4 25 4 4 4 4 4 4 44 44 49 48 52 57 3 24 / 57 3 97 4 66 4 71 3 24 3 35 5/5 5/5 5 45 5/5 5 45 1 1 1 I 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 668 3 809 3 672 0 795 / 76l 7 #35 6 748 3 702 5 907 9 542 8 724 6 838 7 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 985 7 123 6 957 8 913 7 895 2 803 1 840 8 922 1 Q58 9 967 5 5 / 5 5/5 1 QA5 6 9 f)/ 2 Q o£ 5 / 5 5 / 5 c /c 3 28 3 20 5/5 o 1 90 318 3 3 3 3 19 23 25 18 313 5 45 5 / 5 5 46 5 46 5 46 2 090 8 9 9 2 2 n/ A 9 n r 7/ n 061 1 061 8 9 03/ 9 9 1 99 Q 2 108 8 2 235 3 5 / 5 5/5 5 / 5 9 1 5/ £ 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 1 9 9 9 2 196 8 9 / 30 / 1965 January February March April May : ' June July August September October November December (NA) 3 3 3 3 06 09 18 15 317 /5 /5 /5 /5 / 5 // / / / 5 5 /6 91 7 5Q9 759 3&0 977 3 7 7 3 7 2 184 8 9 9^9 # 93/57 ('NA'l NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. TABLE BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued 87. General imports, total Year and month (Mil. dol.) 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) 89. Excess of 81. Index of conreceipts (+) or sumer prices payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (1957-59= 100) 94. Index of con96. Manufacturers' struction contracts, unfilled orders, durable goods invalue dustries (1957-59= 100) (Bil. dol.) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing1 (Bil. dol.) 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1,326.5 1 376 5 +341.8 +489 5 +330.3 +430 . 4 +357 6 +484 9 +401 7 +356.6 +436 5 +230 7 +299 7 +462 2 1,099.9 1,510.4 1,484.8 1,414.6 1,416.3 1,430.9 1 , 449 . 5 1,497.3 1 , 443 . 3 1,455.4 1,465.5 1,479.8 -114.2 +613.2 +473.0 +499.1 +478.9 +372.2 +391.3 +424.8 +514.9 +512.1 +500.1 +611.0 1,434.4 1 , 460 . 3 1,519.5 1,540.6 1,539.4 1,518 4 1,578.1 1,574.9 1 546 4 1,547.7 1,697.7 1 642 2 +608.5 +585.9 +554.5 +520.5 +522.4 +515.8 +544.8 +533.9 +688 9 +607.1 +499 1 +788 2 1 206 4 1 600 5 1,869 0 1 #?/ 7 +10 -7 +883 +545 +478 + "3^0 +593 +620 1 319 8 1 341 7 1,365.0 1 4,04, 1 1 350 7 1 346 6 1,345 9 1 /71 / 1 312 1 1 /?/, Q 104.7 104 9 105 1 105.3 105 4 105 4 105 3 105 5 105 9 105 8 105 8 105 9 115 119 131 121 117 120 117 118 113 117 1 ?3 138 45.80 46 42 45 75 45.41 44 95 44 58 44 33 43 73 43 37 43 58 /3 1 8 44 09 106.1 106.1 106.2 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 107.1 106.9 107.0 107.2 107.7 121 130 118 125 144 135 126 132 128 146 144 148 45.06 45.74 46.68 47.53 47.86 47.28 46.74 46.70 47.07 47.17 47.08 46.68 107.8 107.7 107.8 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.2 108 3 108.4 108.6 108 9 147 143 140 138 138 138 140 121 131 136 143 154 47.07 47.64 47.80 48.84 49.22 50.04 51.30 51.37 52.14 53.14 53.41 53 96 0 0 1 5 -i-P/Q 1 no Q 137 140 141 1 5? i/ s CMA") 110 2 110 0 110 0 (NA) 1 ?Q 1 /Q 1 "3Q 54 28 55 09 55.53 56 37 56 88 57 45 r57 83 r58 10 p58 87 792 267 -433 711 8 44 8 32 8 26 8 81 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May. . ' June July August September October November December -1,199 -1,108 -210 -153 -257 -582 -593 -1,366 8.88 9.38 10.05 11.02 12.08 13.23 14.54 14.97 1965 January February March April May. , ' June July August September October November December 1 7QS Q 1 #?/ ft I 669 8 1 7?^ 1 (NA^ 9 8 7 6 8 n 0 3 (NA^ 701 109 109 109 109 (NA) 15.66 p!7 06 (NA^ NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •"•Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.) bed BASIC DATA OCTOBER 7965 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued International Comparisons Year and month 123. Canada, 47. United States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production tion 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1957-59= 100) 121. OECD,1 European countries, index of industrial production 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) 122 126 124 129 125 128 129 1 30 130 131 132 132 133 132 115 116 118 118 118 118 119 119 120 119 120 119 113 115 116 116 117 118 118 119 119 119 120 120 108 110 111 110 113 114 113 114 115 110 113 110 123 124 125 124 125 126 127 127 128 127 120 121 122 123 120 121 122 122 123 123 121 123 125 126 128 131 110 111 113 114 115 115 116 118 117 120 121 121 127 126 127 130 1 31 132 132 1 3? 1 3/, 135 136 136 133 13/ l 33 135 133 133 1 ?3 1 97 1 P3 124 123 123 122 123 123 127 128 129 i /n 139 141 139 138 137 140 144 143 143 131 129 128 129 129 146 146 143 145 146 l /5 rl 5/ rl 5/ pl44 r!50 124. 126 126 125 126 126 126 127 129 128 1 3? 133 1 33 1 3Q 1 3/, 1 36 1 36 1 38 126. France, index of industrial production (1957-59= 100) 127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index of industrial of industrial production production (1957-59= 100) 122 123 124 123 124 1 ?3 125 125 126 128 128 126 149 151 149 151 153 127 125 116 129 158 155 161 165 165 166 163 166 1 33 1 3/ 1 ?Q 1 PQ 1 /7 151 149 150 153 158 160 1 36 (1957-59= 100) 182 178 181 181 182 180 179 180 181 179 179 178 17Q 184 184 1Q1 1 QD 1Q1 P03 POP PD7 1 73 211 PI / 1 3Q 1 37 1 3A 1 3# 1 70 PI 7 1 3Q -I/O i /n 1 7P PI Q 1 3Q -\ / r 1 3Q 1 on i AQ -1/70 i /j 168 166 164 166 1 56 165 164 166 166 pp/ 140 171 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December 128 128 129' 131 132 132 133 134 134 132 135 138 134- 135 135 136 139 140 1 / c -L4P -Ljy 140 1/1 150 140 1/3 1 LI 1/5 1/5 1/1 149 149 1 3? 1 3P 1 /,! 142 142 14-9 139 156 155 150 154 138 140 139 141 140 i /p 1 3£ 99 / ^4 226 228 P3Q, P3P OQO P3Q P/l P37 P/P 1965 January February March April May , J June July August September October November December 139 139 141 141 142 143 144 144 pH3 142 141 143 142 142 143 pi 44. (NA) r!28 pi 29 (NA) (NA^ nl 5/ (NA^ •nl 7$ plj?o TMA^ ^IMA; 166 169 165 169 r!74 1 75 ?/ 3 P37 24.2 24.0 P3/ T*P/ "3 n!75 P/l (NAl npon P<c_}7 (NA ^ NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e"r estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. ^-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 35 Section TWO charts and tables DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS9 FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS Average workweek—27 industries New orders—36 industries Capital appropriations—17 industries Profits—700 companies Stock prices—80 industries Industrial materials prices—13 materials State unemployment claims—47 areas Nonagricultural employment—30 industries Production—24 industries Wholesale prices—23 industries Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores Nef sales—800 companies New orders—400 companies Car/oadings—79 commodity groups Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES 37 ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOB« ^s bed DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date that high was reached Current expansion July 1965 June 1965 Business cycle peak Sept. 1965 Aug. 1965 Nov. 1948 July 1953 July 1957 May 1960 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 8 months or more c 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month 7 1 2 1 3 3 3 4 Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 8 2 1 3 2 2 2 4 7 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 4 24 17 24 17 7 2 1 1 "4 "i 3 24 16 2 1 2 3 24 0 24 0 *2 "i 2 16 12 24 0 9 I 5 1 2 15 X 20 0 2 21 5 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date Number of months before benchmark date that high was reached 1 2 "i 1 1 2 8 1 9 1 3 7 11 73 11 82 11 64 2 1 8 11 73 Apr. 1957 Apr. 1953 1 3 "3 1 3 "3 3 11 0 11 27 **2 2 3 1 4 11 27 11 36 6th month before business cycle peak 3d month before business cycle peak Aug. 1948 3 4 1 2 Nov. 1959 Jan. 1957 Jan. 1953 May 1948 Feb. 1960 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 4 13 2 4 "i "2 2 5 1 2 1 1 2 '*4 20 5 21 5 21 "i 2 13 2 1 2 1 2 3 i 1 1 1 4 1 2 3 7 9 l **5 2 "3 24 0 24 0 ^0 15 2 21 33 18 1 2 1 2 6 7 3 2 2 i 2 1 24 0 24 4 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 i 1 1 "i "3 "i *1 2 6 "5 4 3 2 "4 11 55 11 36 11 18 11 45 5 1 3 5 11 45 1 3 6 11 55 "4 4 2 1 "i 4 3 11 36 11 27 NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution. *4 series were not available. 2 1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks were disregarded in this distribution. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 38 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed CHART OCTOBER 7965 ANALYTICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators Percent 9-mo. span 1-mo. s p a n Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 indus. 50 0 D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 indus. 100 50 0 Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations17 indus., NICB (~-3-Q span, —• — 1-Q span) 100 50 J 0 D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher prafits-700 cos. (1-Q span) 75 50 -I 25 D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-80 indus. 100 50 0 D23. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mils. 100 i/ 50 V 0 D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insuri.-47 areas (inverted) 100 50 J 0 39 ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER 7965 bed DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators 40 Percent D41. Employees in nonagr. estab!ishments-30 Indus. (6-mo. span — 1-mo. span ---) 100 50 0 D47. Industrial production-24 indus. (6-mo. span — 1-mo. span ---) 100 50 0 D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus. (6-mo. span —— Urna. span —.) 100 50 0 D54. Sales of retail store* -24 (9-mo. s p a n — types of stores 14mo. span —) 100 50 0 See How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER 7965 CHART DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes Percent Actual — Anticipated — D35. Net sales, all mfrs.-800 cos. (4-Q span) 100 50 0 D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 cos. (4-Q span) 100 50 0 D48. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups (4-Q span) 100 50 0 D48. Change in total carloadings +0.5 (millions of cars44-Q span) 0 J D61. New plant and equipment expend.-17-22 indus. (1-Q span) 100 50 0 Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows: Series number and date of survey D35,D36 (July 1965) 048 (Sept. 1965) D61 ( Aug. 1965) Actual 2nd Q 1964 - 2nd Q 1965 4th Q 1963 - 4th Q 1964 1st Q 1965 - 2nd Q 1965 Anticipated. 4th Q 1964 - 4th Q 1965 4th Q 1964 - 4th Q 1965 3rd Q 1965 - 4th Q 1965 i ; '• See low to Read *h*K I wt ? 41 ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER 7965 bed LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES NBER Leading Indicators Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing (21 industries) D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (36 industries) Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations, NICB (17 industries) 1 Year and month 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1962 January February March April. ........... May June July August September October November December 21.4 61.9 85.7 76.2 28.6 31.0 38.1 54.8 78.6 9.5 64.3 35.7 85.7 83.3 50.0 23.8 52.4 54.8 42.9 28.6 26.2 23.8 40.5 19.0 63.9 52.8 36.1 51.4 56.9 37.5 56.9 36.1 48.6 68.1 50.0 47.2 77.8 63.9 63.9 47.2 47.2 45.8 36.1 52.8 59.7 56.9 70.8 69.4 1963 January February March April May . Jm. June July.... August September October November December 76.2 50.0 61.9 H.3 85.7 54.8 47.6 57.1 59.5 71.4 21.4 83.3 61.9 45.2 83.3 69.0 78.6 76.2 61.9 64.3 52.4 64.3 66.7 73.8 63.9 43.1 54.2 63.9 52.8 47.2 51.4 52.8 52.8 69.4 33.3 62.5 88.9 69.4 66.7 63.9 52.8 66.7 62.5 72.2 69.4 58.3 83.3 77.8 4.8 88.1 40.5 66.7 42.9 26.2 54.8 71.4 14.3 76.2 64.3 92.9 85.7 50.0 52.4 73.8 33.3 85.7 73.8 88.1 78.6 78.6 95.2 59.5 55.6 44.4 58.3 61.1 44.4 50.0 63.9 40.3 54.2 58.3 55.6 68.1 76.4 83.3 80.6 75.0 72.2 58.3 63.9 83.3 72.2 63.9 61.1 68.1 52.4 59.5 76.2 19.0 83.3 23.8 r47.6 r57.1 p28.6 76.2 81.0 r59.5 r59.5 P35.7 48.6 38.9 63.9 50.0 44.4 58.3 r59.7 r44.4 P51.4 77.8 75.0 77.8 69.4 p63.9 1-quarter span 3-quarter span 65 47 29 '?6 *76 *53 *59 74 47 53 '59 *53 *53 *65 *65 *76 53 76 *56 71 *53 44 *32 *59 r76 P71 1964 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December P71 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. •'•Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICB publication Investment Statistics - Capital Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.) 42 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER 7965 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (around 700 corporations) 1-quarter span 1962 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May . ' June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May June July August September October November December 54 47 '48 *56 50 59 '56 55 57 *60 57 '56 55 59 (NA) D19. Index of stock prices, 500x common stocks (80 industries) 1-month span 9-month span D23. Index of industrial materials prices (13 industrial materials) 1-month span 9-month span D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas) 1-month span 9-month span 25.6 75.0 47.5 8.7 1.2 1.2 69.4 78.1 36.2 8.1 98.7 84.4 17.56.2 7.5 3.1 3.7 2.5 1.2 3.7 18.7 67.5 93.7 95.0 53.8 46.2 46.2 42.3 42.3 46.2 23.1 30.8 50.0 53.8 53.8 53.8 38.5 30 ;8 30.8 38.5 23.1 15.4 30.8 38.5 38.5 53.8 46.2 61.5 46.8 76.6 38.3 48.9 46.8 19.1 63.8 61.7 42.6 36.2 72.3 36.2 80.9 55.3 48.9 36.2 46.8 44.7 38.3 27.7 27.7 53.2 74.5 53.2 97.5 78.7 43.7 91.2 85.0 51.9 29.4 75.0 76.9 44.9 44.9 68.4 95.0 95.0 98.7 95.0 89.1 84.6 78.2 79.5 77.6 69.2 71.2 84.4 61.5 46.2 50.0 46.2 46.2 69.2 46.2 38.5 69.2 69.2 50.0 57.7 61.5 69.2 61.5 69.2 65.4 61.5 61.5 61.5 61.5 53.8 61.5 76.9 34.0 89.4 31.9 47.9 46.8 68.1 44.7 44.7 44.7 59.6 40.4 23.4 •44.7 66.0 72.3 48.9 63.8 80.9 46.8 31.9 85.1 60.6 53.2 73.4 74.7 65.2 78.5 75.6 52.6 35.3 89.7 41.0 76.3 73.1 59.6 24.0 83.1 78.2 86.5 85.9 84.6 84.6 81.8 68.8 65.6 75.3 76.6 76.6 53.8 53.8 46.2 65.4 30.8 "53.8 46.2 76.9 69.2 73.1 61.5 38.5 61.5 69.2 69.2 76.9 76.9 80.8 84.6 76.9 69.2 69.2 76.9 69.2 89.4 27.7 57.4 77.7 48.9 48.9 63.8 51.1 53.2 34.0 31.9 83.0 73.4 72.3 70.2 74.5 89.4 60.6 61.7 89.4 61.7 70.2 74.5 72.3 92.2 81.8 64.3 70.8 66.9 0.0 24.7 79.9 81.2 80.5 58.4 51.9 58.4 72.7 53.8 30.8 "69.2 76.9 53.8 57.7 46.2 42.3 50.0 S 15.4 69.2 76.9 61.5 69.2 53.8 2 53.8 24.5 57.4 66.0 61.7 59.6 51.1 34.0 38.3 78.7 78.7 78.7 59.6 66.0 61.7 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. •"•The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter. 2 Average for October 14, 15, and 18. on 79 43 ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER 7965 bed LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators Year and month D41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries) D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores) D58. Index of wholesale prices (23 manufacturing industries) 1 -month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1962 January February March April May June Julv August September October November December 65.0 75.0 75.0 86.7 60.0 53.3 61.7 51.7 51.7 50.0 48.3 43.3 86.7 88.3 81.7 78.3 73.3 71.7 51.7 45.0 41.7 35.0 43.3 50.0 25.0 87.5 87.5 75.0 64.6 66.7 52.1 58.3 83.3 29.2 68.8 35.4 83.3 79.2 70.8 91.7 77.1 83.3 66.7 77.1 60.4 47.9 72.9 62.5 58.3 50.0 70.8 68.8 58.3 18.8 83.3 75.0 64.6 39.6 87.5 66.7 87.5 91.7 91.7 89.6 89.6 72.9 95.8 95.8 87.5 87.5 91.7 83.3 67.4 52.2 58.7 60.9 47.8 41.3 41.3 28.3 43.5 32.6 56.5 30.4 60.9 63.0 58.7 54.3 58.7 43.5 32.6 41.3 37.0 30.4 26.1 26.1 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 65.0 46.7 71.7 76.7 75.0 63.3 78.3 53.3 56.7 66.7 53.3 80.0 60.0 65.0 65.0 68.3 68.3 71.7 73.3 60.0 66.7 60.0 73.3 73.3 79.2 66.7 83.3 54.2 83.3 75.0 72.9 68.8 58.3 64.6 50.0 77.1 83.3 91.7 95.8 91.7 91.7 83.3 91.7 77.1 79.2 77.1 83.3 85.4 50.0 54.2 52.1 41.7 52.1 75.0 66.7 64.6 25.0 58.3 54.2 77.1 70.8 79.2 85.4 77.1 60.4 52.1 62.5 87.5 70.8 91.7 83.3 77.1 41.3 41.3 41.3 47.8 58.7 73.9 50.0 58.7 52.2 69.6 63.0 67.4 32.6 47.8 58.7 60.9 63.0 69.6 71.7 78.3 71.7 69.6 67.4 82.6 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December 53.3 83.3 66.7 63.3 65.0 73.3 66.7 51.7 73.3 46.7 88.3 78.3 75.0 75.0 80.0 83.3 73.3 75.0 75.0 91.7 86.7 80.0 90.0 90.0 62.5 75.0 75.0 87.5 66.7 62.5 83.3 64.6 45.8 68.8 79.2 81.2 91.7 95.8 87.5 91.7 87.5 89.6 70.8 70.8 87.5 79.2 91.7 91.7 43.8 70.8 52.1 52.1 66.7 66.7 45.8 52.1 37.5 64.6 62.5 62.5 79.2 100.0 85.4 83.3 83.3 83.3 75.0 68.8 83.3 81.2 60.4 62.5 63.0 67.4 52.2 71.7 34.8 34.8 69.6 65.2 60.9 60.9 52.2 60.9 69.6 69.6 69.6 54.3 56.5 56.5 60.9 58.7 60.9 69.6 78.3 82.6 66.7 81.7 86.7 58.3 58.3 85.0 86.7 r50.0 p65.0 83.3 71.7 76.7 90.0 r80.0 p76.7 66.7 66.7 79.2 58.3 70.8 r8l.2 81.2 r54.2 P37.5 83.3 85.4 83.3 r83.3 r79.2 P77.1 50.0 72.9 20.8 62.5 83.3 39.6 r8l.2 r37.5 P45.8 75.0 87.5 r91.7 r70.8 p79.2 63.0 60.9 67.4 r67.4 60.9 60.9 r63.0 r54.3 P54.3 76.1 80.4 r82.6 76.1 r67.4 p76.1 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 6-month span NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 44 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER 7965 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes D35. Net sales, manufactures (800 companies) D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured commodity groups) D61. New plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries) 4-quarter span 4-quarter span 4-quarter span 1-quarter span Year and month Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Change in total (000) Actual Anticipated 1962 January February March April May , y June July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May June July August September October.. November December "SO 88 '76 'si 57.9 94.7 -68 *76 80 74 74 62L2 89.5 1% 72 74 71 70 42.1 68.4 -67 74 82 '76 *76 63.2 63!2 +29 '•76 "so 77 "76 73.7 78.*9 +39 74 80 '76 *76 57.9 68^4 +44 82 *84 *82 'so 78.9 78.9 +21 'si 85 *82 "si 68.'i 73.7 -39 *83 '87 "si 'si 84.2 6s!i r+11 *82 "S6 'si "si 73.7 94^7 +68 *83 "87 84 "si (NA) 89.5 + 51 'si 88 84 85 89.5 +49 'si 84^2 *84 84.2 (NA) 88 *S8 (NA) 65.6 62.5 68.8 68.' 8 65l6 65.*6 46.9 68.8 40.6 50.0 65^6 75.0 75.0 71.9 71.9 75.6 71.9 50.0 62.' 5 50.0 84.4 75.0 96.*9 68.8 56.2 65.6 75.0 68!8 (NA) 65*.6 r+23 78.1 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require no seasonal adjustment The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 45 TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed OCTOBER 7965 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS Basic Data 1964 1965 Diffusion index title and components Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. May June W Aug. Sept.P Average weekly hours Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1 (21 industry components) All manufacturing industries 4.0.8 40.5 40.5 40.9 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.9 40.9 40.9 Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products 40. 4 40.4 41.2 41.3 42.2 41.7 40.0 39.4 40.5 41.1 42.8 41.3 40.6 39.7 41.2 41.5 41.9 41.4 40.4 39.9 41.5 41.5 42.2 42.0 40.6 40.2 41.8 42.2 42.2 42.3 41.7 40.8. 41.7 41.8 42.0 42.2 41.8 39.7 41.4 41.5 42.1 41.9 42.6 40.3 41.1 41.6 42.2 41.7 41.6 40.4 41.0 41.4 42.0 41.5 42.5 40.6 42.6 41.0 40.0 42.0 40.3 42.3 40.9 39.1 42.0 40.7 40.5 40.9 39.7 42.8 40.9 41.5 41.1 39.7 43.1 41.1 42.9 41.3 40.0 43.0 41.1 42.9 41.7 39.8 42.9 40.9 43.0 41.5 39.6 42.9 40.6 42.1 41.4 39.8 r£L.7 r40.7 r41.3 r41.5 r42.2 r£L.7 r42.8 40.7 r42.2 r41.2 r40.1 40.8 38.4 41.2 35.9 43.0 40.7 37.0 40.0 34.9 42.7 41.0 38.5" 41.5 36.4 42.4 40.9 37.6 41.5 36.6 43.1 38.5 42.0 42.3 41.6 38.4 40.9 37.2 41.4 36.4 42.9 38.5 41.7 41.9 41.7 37.7 38.4 41.5 42.1 41.6 37.9 r41.0 r37.4 1-41.8 r36.1 r43.0 r38.6 r41.7 r42.7 r42.2 37.6 40.2 36.8 41.8 36.1 42.8 38.5 42.1 42.5 41.3 37.7 41.3 39.6 41.8 36.5 42.9 38.6 41.6 42.0 41.6 38.2 41.2 38.3 41.3 36.2 42.9 38.6 41.3 42.1 41.8 37.9 41.0 39.3 41.4 36.2 42.9 38.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 38.5 21,751 2,874 (NA) Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries . Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products 38.4 41.7 41.7 41.3 38.1 42.7 40.6 43.0 41.3 40.0 38.5 42.6 42.8 41.5 38.3 Millions of dollars D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 (36 industry components) All durable goods industries 19,342 Primary metals Blast furnaces, steel mills Nonferrous metals Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals 3,280 1,825 Fabricated metal products Metal cans, barrels, and drums Hardware, structural metal and wire products . . Other fabricated metal products 1,946 Machinery, except electrical 2,952 Steam engines and turbines* \ 281 Internal combustion engines * Farm machinery and equipment Construction, mining, and material handling*. . 528 Metalworking machinery * 205 Miscellaneous equipment * Machine shops Special industry machinery * General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery *. 19,907 3,847 2,296 19,623 3,767 2,203 19,454 3,663 2,072 20,720 3,821 2,243 20,992 3,286 1,632 21,310 3,454 1,816 22,195 3,493 1,851 r 21, 461 r3,090 pi, 448 2,045 1,991 2,011 2,089 2,027 2,042 2,058 pi, 968 2,923 2,994 175 2,971 3,098 3,108 P3,299 (NA) 175 175 142 3,189 226 3,140 219 149 P283 (NA) 520 183 566 221 592 201 526 239 601 208 560 204 603 242 P604 P290 (NA) (NA) 211 202 233 237 258 230 248 p247 (NA) 211 . NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. p = preliminary; NA = not available. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency. 46 ^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. r= revised; (NA) bed ocro.E. IMS ANALYTICAL MEASURES SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change 9-month spans 1-month spans 1964 1964 1965 1965 Diffusion index title and components Q ^ o Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING (21 industry components) Percent rising. . All manufacturing industries Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products , Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products . . . -1 £ S O j i . c D ( U Q? AO £>? 7A + - + - O 4 f + TQ O O •§ #? = 0 4 O/ = /# 4- 0- 0 _J- , I* 4- 4 - 4 - - Jl c? ^ i J . j . ^ ' i ^ a c D c a a . r o : 5 ' = 5 ; - + + _|- _£_ 4 O j = - S - -- + CD + - — 4 — + — 4 79 3 79 95 - - - 4 - O — O — — - 4 4 - O 4 - 4 - 4 - + - 4 4 - 4 + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + 0 4 - + - + - - - + + + + 4 — + + O O + + + O 4 - + O — O — 4 + 4- — O — 4- — 4- 4 - 4 - O — O + O 4 - - O 4 4 — 4- O 76 — !E*Q- D ~ o 81 O O 60 O C Z D O 60 36 - 4 — - 0 - 4 + 4 - - 4 4 - + 4 - - - - O + — - - Q + 4- 60 4- - 4 - 4 - ~3 = ^ ^ 5 ^ C - CD r c 88 Q. + - £ =J 9Q + - _|_ 4 _ S - s C S - ^ - ^ - s C + 4- u o - l « ? l 5 - s 4 - 4 - + - ^7 o 3 O — — 4 - + — — 4 - 4 - + + + + + -f - + + + + 0 + + + + + O — + f + + + - + 0 + + + + + 0 + + + + 4- + — — O + 0 + + + 0 72 64 61 68 78 75 - - - O O + + + + 4- , + D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES (36 industry components) Percent rising All durable goods industries Primary metals: Blast furnaces steel mills Nonferrous metals Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals • 68 4.9 + + + - - + + - 39 64 50 44 58 60 44 51 83 - 4+ + + + + + 78 69 64 .... Fabricated metal products: Hardware structural metal and wire products Machinery, except electrical: Steam engines and turbines* Internal combustion engines * Farm machinery and equipment Construction mining and material handling * Metalworking machinery* Miscellaneous equipment * Machine shops Special industry machinery * General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery * __ + + + + 4 + + - + 4- 0 + + - - 0 + - - 4 + - - + 4 -- + -- - + + 4- 4- + + + 4 - + + + - + _ + + + + + + + - + - - + - - - + - + + + + + + + + + + + - 4 - 4 - + + 4 + _ + - - + + + = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential, comprise series 24. -+ + - - + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + -- *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that 47 ANALYTICAL MEASURES ocro.E« INI SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued Basic Data —Continued 1964 1965 Diffusion index title and components Sept. Aug. Nov. Oct. May Dec. June July Aug. Sept. Oct.1 Millions of dollars D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2 - Continued Electrical machinery 2,694 Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* } 638 Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment 609 Electronic components Other electrical machinery* Transportation equipment 4,771 Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle assembly operations 2,581 2,542 2,763 2,637 2,801 2,874 r3,099 p2,978 (NA) 557 585 620 604 603 668 r672 p683 (NA) 618 549 655 484 659 691 r752 p629 (NA) 4,760 4,544 4,283 5,172 5,878 5,870 r6,363 r6,153 p6,734 115.3 114.6 115.2 rll4.8 .426 .076 36.055 1.894 .152 .146 .303 .207 1.643 .418 .075 35.677 1.867 .150 .145 .304 .212 1.695 Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Instruments, total Lumber, total Furniture, total Stone, clay, and glass, total Other durable goods, total D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES3 (13 industrial materials components) Industrial materials price index Index: 1957-59 = 100 105.7 112.0 108.2 113.2 112.5 116.9 114.4 Dollars Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib.) Steel scrap (ton) Tin(lb.) Zinc(lb) Burlap (yd.) Cotton (Ib ) 15-market average Print cloth (yd ) average Wool tops (Ib.) Hides (Ib ) Rosin (100 Ib ) Rubber (Ib ) Tallow (Ib ) D54. SALES OF RET AIL STORES2 (24 retail store components) .339 .056 40.157 1.660 .362 .061 35.933 1.866 .402 .062 38.322 2.075 .140 .124 .315 .183 1.732 .140 .125 .311 .186 1.727 .145 .125 .310 .190 1.746 .146 11.946 .250 .066 .147 11.874 .260 .073 .142 11.826 .264 .073 All retail sales Grocery stores Other food stores Eating and drinking places Department stores Mail order houses (department store merchandise). Variety stores Other general merchandise stores Men's and boys' wear stores 22,266 22,254 21,383 21,661 22,781 4,743 4,755 4,736 4,774 4,913 4,904 4,978 r5,015 P5,012 (NA) 1,633 1,630 205 439 1,600 1,516 192 427 1,637 1,568 198 429 1,609 1,580 191 466 1,653 1,600 196 442 1,767 1,753 210 472 1,749 rl,8!4 1,666 rl,757 216 205 462 r467 pi, 801 pl,732 p207 P469 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 269 261 259 261 257 263 • r260 p266 .417 .393 .065 .073 41 . 534 39.824 1.629 1.889 .414 .073 38.600 1.910 .149 .125 .309 .191 1.691 .148 .125 .308 .194 1.667 .151 .147 .303 .206 1.642 .138 11.838 .270 .074 .137 12.018 .258 .082 .158 11.629 .272 .079 .162 • .164 11.733 11.919 .260 .265 .080 .079 .498 r.466 .444 .071 .072 .074 31.469 r29.9!8 29.774 1.827 1.911 rl.930 ,150 .150 .149 r.160 .156 .148 .301 .302 .303 .210 .211 .211 1.746 1.712 rl.743 .186 r.167 11.581 11.523 .250 .254 .074 .074 .157 11.488 .239 .073 Millions of dollars NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency, p = preliminary; NA = not available. 23,352 23,331 r23,743 r23,653 p23,344 254 ^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. (NA) r= revised; Average for October 14, 15, and 18. 2 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 3 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. 48 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER 1965 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 1-month spans 9-month spans 1965 964 1965 964 Diffusion index title and components 0 0 - ? £ l . t J l - l > o A _o J _ J _ ^ O Z D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued Electrical machinery: Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment Electronic components Other electrical machinery* Transportation equipment: Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle assembly operations Complete aircraft Aircraft parts Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Other transportation equipment Instruments, total Lumber, total Furniture, total Stone, clay, and glass, total .... Other durable goods, total C D O ^ C U —| U _ CO S Q. CO <E 2E I S "=3 —» =3 —» « ^ + - 0 - + - + + + + _ + + - + + - + - + _ + - + + - + + - + + + + + — — + — — 4- — — 4- 4- 4- - + ' c § " § t a o A + - + > = c- + + + + + _- + + - + + - + - + - + - + + - + - + - + + + + - + + - + - — + + O + + — + — + + + — + — + > Q « ^ 0 C L r i - i ^ s i ^ f t s Is! + + -+ - + + > »- -- + + -° - + O-- 03 c/o r- S f £ f t | ^ ^ < ^ S + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - - - + + + + + - + + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + -- + + + + - 0 + + _ _ _ _ _ _ - ' -4- + -I- + 4- + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + 77 69 69 77 + + + + + + + + + f + + + + + + + + — + + + + _ + --- + + + 62 69 54 54 + + _ _ + + + + + + _ _ + + _ + _ + + + + + + + + + D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2 (13 industrial materials components) Percent rising Industrial materials price index 38 54 31 69 77 54 58 46 42 50 15 Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib ) + + _ _ _ _ _ Steel scrap (ton) Tin(lb.) — + + + + + — Zinc(lb) + + + + + + — Burlap (yd.) + + + + + + + + — Cotton (Ib ) 15~market average 0 + Print cloth (yd ) average . . + + Wool tops (Ib ) Hides (Ib) Rosin (100 Ib ) f + + + + Rubber (Ib ) Tallow (Ib ) D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES (24 retail store components) 62 50 73 21 62 83 40 81 38 46 Percent rising + + + — + + — + — — Al 1 retai 1 sales • • « Grocery stores + + -+ + + -Other food stores + + + + + + - Eating and drinking places Department stores Mail order houses (department store merchandise) • • + + + + + Variety stores + --+ + - + + Other general merchandise stores + + + + - + + Men's and boys' wear stores . + - - - 69 69 + 77 + 69 83 81 60 62 75 71 79 + + + + + + + + + 4- + + + + + + + + + + - -_ - + ' 88 92 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - - + + + + - - - + + + + = rising; o v = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential. comprise series 24. *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that Average for October 14, 15, and 18. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded. 49 ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER ,965 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Basic Data —Continued 1964 1965 Diffusion index title and components Aug. Sept. Nov. Oct. Dec. May June July"" Aug.P Sept. Millions of dollars D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued Women's apparel, accessory stores Family and other apparel stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores Household appliance TV radio stores Lumber yards building materials dealers Hardware stores Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire battery accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Jewelry stores Liquor stores Other durable-goods stores Other nondurable-goods stores 519 504 512 517 518 519 517 527 516 (NA) 224 719 375 711 227 206 679 388 729 237 210 703 385 741 242 229 701 397 721 261 226 702 411 742 262 224 720 365 791 239 216 742 365 808 234 213 765 370 804 245 212 747 384 778 242 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 3,265 3,428 257 1,738 724 4,344 244 1,755 731 4,279 259 1,818 749 4,341 243 1,829 758 4,474 230 1,722 739 246 1,835 776 4,429 256 1,839 774 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 503 509 508 525 521 522 504 (NA) 5,025 234 1,690 722 494 4,301 230. 1,695 734 499 1965 1964 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 1965 Mar. May June July r Aug.r 60,382 103 529 352 500 1,068 987 1,200 1,145 1,265 246 336 1,121 73 82'4 1,233 501 619 542 113 355 316 60,602 60,680 106 532 352 505 1,073 993 1,218 1,150 1,305 249 345 1,126 66 826 1,206 505 625 550 114 363 315 60,806 111 533 353 506 1,070 992 1,228 1,156 1,298 250 343 1,127 64 829 1,216 505 625 547 114 361 318 630 3,220 4,068 3,352 9,321 638 3,178 631 3,211 4,092 3,355 9,353 619 3,191 4,112 3,358 9,366 Sept.P Thousands of employees D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1 (30 industry components) All nonagricultural establishments 58,878 59,206 Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries 102 532 340 500 1,038 933 1,145 1,065 1,156 235 330 100 536 344 501 1,041 951 1,165 1,078 1,181 237 333 Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products . . , Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products 1,151 80 808 1,181 496 605 530 114 337 315 1,154 76 812 1,186 495 610 532 113 339 315 Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade 639 3,162 .' 3,997 3,246 9,065 637 3,244 4,020 3,259 9,103 NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 59,334 100 533 345 503 1,044 964 1,166 1,086 1,207 238 332 1,150 74 817 1,196 495 611 536 113 343 315 59,676 101 540 348 503 1,046 979 1,168 1,099 1,212 240 334 1,144 73 820 1,192 498 615 637 112 350 316 59,992 100 544 352 508 1,047 957 1,179 1,113 1,237 241 337 1,147 72 824 1,199 500 616 539 114 354 318 633 3,235 3,939 3,270 9,177 635 3,281 3,997 3,288 9,244 633 3,304 4,042 3,303 9,319 60,110 101 531 352 500 1,037 981 1,186 1,130 1,251 240 335 1,131 73 822 1,211 499 618 539 111 354 319 629 3,207 4,057 3,329 9,307 r = revised; p = preliminary; NA = not available. 104 534 354 506 1,090 998 1,217 1,155 1,268 252 336 1,129 74 826 1,207 507 624 549 115 358 315 4,074 3,362 9,348 bed OCTOBER 7965 ANALYTICAL MEASURES SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 9-month spans 1-month spans 1964 Diffusion index title and components o 1 £ I O Z D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued Women's apparel, accessory stores Family and other apparel stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores Household appliance, TV, radio stores Lumber yards, building materials dealers Hardware stores Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire, battery, accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Jewelry stores Liquor stores Other durable-goods stores Other nondurable-goods stores CD O + CD —» |- CD U_ 1 -1 03 2E 13 00 13 00 Q 03 2E =3 3. - 4- 4- 4- 4- -f- 4- O + O - - + 4- - + 4- + + - + - + + 4- + - 4- 4- 4- - 0 4- 4- - - - 4- 4- - 4- 4- 4- 4- - 4- 4- 4- - 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- - 4- + + _ - + + + 4- 4- 4- 4- - 4- 4- 44- + 4- + 4- £ + 4- 4- + + 4- 4- + . + CI 0 -5 if 5 78 + 67 8£ 87 58 + + + - S: JE 00 =3 <C "=3 1 D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS (30 industry components) Percent rising All nonagricultural establishments Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment • Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products + + + = rising; o = unchanged; S. —> 1 cp 87 50 65 87 80 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- - -f 4- - - - 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- - 0 4- 4- 4- 4- 0 + - - 0 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- - - 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- + - 4- - 4- 4- + 4- 44 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- - 4- 4- 4- + - + + + - + O 4- - - 4- - 4- - 4- 4- 0 0 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 0 - + 4- + + - + + + + - O 4- 4- 4- - + 4- 4- 4- O - 4- - - 4- 4- 4- + + + - + 0 + + - + - - + + - + + 4- 4- 0 4- 4- 4- - 4- + + 4 + - 4 - + 4 - - 4 - + 4 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 44- 444- 4- + O 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- + 4- 4- + 4- 4- O + CD GO 90 + 4- + 4- + 4- + 4- Q. <c I_L_ 4- 4- 44- 444- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 444- + 4- + 4- o 0 00 cu 0 CD O O3 .0 CD o 90 83 72 77 90 80 77 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- O 4- 44- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 44- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- -f 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 44- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- o 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- O + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- O 4- 4- o 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4- 44- 4- 4- 4- 4- O 4- u_ Q. 8 03 0 4- o - 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + - 4- 4- 4- 4- 4 4- 4- + + + + + + 4- 4- 0 Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retai 1 trade 58 85 + + c? % - 4- 4- 1965 - 4- 44- 4- 4- + 4- Q 4- + O 4- s- GO 0 4- 4- 1964 13 3 j| 1 -1 -jl Z GO "o 0 00 ^3 6-month spans 1965 | -§ O + 44- 13 4- 1-month spans 1964 —i 0 + 4- =3 00 =3 O 4- 44- O cS. + 44- 13 4- 4- - IS S. + 4- 4- 03 —I 03 4- - JQ CD Lt_ c to Q. <C 4- 4- 1965 1964 1965 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 44- + 4- + 4- + 4- o O 4- 4- - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential. 51 ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOB« i965 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Basic Data—Continued Nov. 1965 1965 1964 Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. May June July Aug. r Sept.P Thousands of employees D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^. Finsnce insurance real estate Service and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government 2,970 8,6342,354 7,306 2,975 8,654 2,352 7,340 2,979 8,689 2,342 7,365 2,987 8,730 2,335 7,407 D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1 (24 industry components) All industrial production Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products • • • Machinery except electrical • Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay g'ass and lumber Clay glass and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous » Nondurable goods: Textiles apparel and leather Textile mill products Apparel products Chemicals and products • • Minerals: pnaj 2,997 8,754 2,340 3,005 8,797 2,345 7,451 7,519 3,013 8,814 2,352 7,567 3,018 r8,886 2,374 r7,568 3,024 8,897 2,379 7,579 2,385 7,640 3,026 8,917 Index: 1957-59-100 135.4 138.1 138.6 139.2 140.7 141.6 142.7 144.2 144.3 142.8 136.1 136.9 138!6 139.7 139.6 140.6 136.9 145.0 140 '.4 145.2 140 '.2 146.0 143 '.0 r!46.4 rl48.7 r 148.1 144*. 2 148.2 130 146 148.1 14-7.2 129.2 140.2 150.7 149.2 140.3 142.0 151.3 150.0 141.4 142.7 152.7 152.3 139.7 145.3 153.*8 154.1 144.4 146.9 157!6 156.8 147.3 147.0 159 '.4 158.4 149.5 149.8 rl62.0 r!58.6 149.8 152.1 162! 6 158.9 151.3 151.5 127.7 109.2 130.2 105.5 132*. 4 111.9 131.8 115.6 129.2 120.5 130 '.3 117.1 131.6 112.8 132.6 rl!5.4 133!l 114.5 162 161 148 154 126 133 (NA) 1&.3 137.4 151^5 139.1 150.6 139.6 154^3 154-13 156.5 143.6 156!s 143.6 r!55!8 r!42.1 157.*2 142.4 128.7 139.1 105.4 130.3 140.6 105.6 131.7 142.2 108.7 132.0 143.7 106.6 131.5 144.0 106.1 131.6 145.3 110.9 r!32.2 r!45.4 r!05.1 rl33'. 8 pl!4.8 p!07.7 133^8 124.2 140.2 126.2 139 il 126.8 137*. 5 127.7 139*.0 128.5 140 '.9 129.3 139 '.4 130.0 rl42! 3 rl31.3 163.2 121.7 163.7 166.4 120.9 165.7 166 '.7 119.0 164.7 167.8 121.5 171.1 169^5 169! 3 122.9 168.2 169.9 121.8 rl69.1 rl72.8 r!26.3 pi 69. 4 123.5 121.0 123.8 125.4 124.3 122.2 123^4 123^4 123.5 127.2 121.9 116.5 122.3 121.8 ri.23.1 P119.9 141.6 132.9 164.7 174.4 125.2 (NA) 122.6 122.8 (NA) 109.6 110.4 110.1 110.4 107.7 109.8 103.2 110.6 103.1 111.4 113.0 111.9 rl!7.1 rl!2.5 117.1 rll2.6 115.2 114.5 126^6 123.9 121.8 123.4 126.7 120.8 123.4 122.9 124.6 124.1 121.6 123.9 123.7 125.8 rl26.4 r!27.3 127.4 128.4 107 112 127 (NA) (NA) 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.8 102.0 102.6 103.1 103.0 103.3 103.2 100.3 98.6 101.8 100.8 100.6 98.5 101.5 100.9 102.1 98.3 101.8 101.1 101.7 98.2 101.7 101.1 100.9 98.3 101.8 101.4 99.6 98.0 101.8 101.3 99.3 98.0 102.1 101.3 99.5 97.8 102.1 101.6 101.0 97.7 101.7 101.3 101.4 97.7 101.9 101.4 140.8 122.2 172.6 157 147 146.2 134.7 133.9 (NA) (NA) 135 (NA) (NA) (NA) 135 (NA) 130 166 (NA) (NA) (NA) 123 (NA) (NA) D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING 2 (23 manufacturing industries) All manufacturing industries Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau ofthe'Census. 52 r= revised; p = preliminary; NA = not available. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) bed °cro««"« ANALYTICAL MEASURES SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 6-month spans 1-month spans 1964 Diffusion index title and components 1965 1964 1965 £ D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con. Finance, insurance, real estate , Service and miscellaneous Federal government , State and local government D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (24 industry components) Percent rising1 All industrial production. Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products. Clay, glass, and lumber Clay, glass, and stone products . Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous 81 79 + Nondurable goods: Textiles, apparel, and leather ... Textile mill products Apparel products Leather and products Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber. Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products .. Foods, beverages, and tobacco .. Foods and beverages Tobacco products Minerals: Coal Crude oil and natural gas Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals + 58 71 + + + + 81 81 54 38 + + o - + - NA + + + + - + + NA - NA NA + NA NA + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + + o + - - + + + - + + + NA NA NA + NA NA NA o NA NA 88 79 92 92 83 - + 83 83 79 77 - NA + + + + + - + + + - + NA NA NA NA NA + + + + NA + + + 4- + + + + - + + + + + NA + NA NA NA + + + + + - - - NA NA NA - + + NA NA - 85 + + + D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING (23 manufacturing industries) Percent rising All manufacturing industries. 67 67 61 61 63 54 54 61 70 78 83 76 80 83 76 67 76 Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel + - rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. NA Not available, x The percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded. 53 ANALYTICAL MEASURES oaont IMS bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Basic Data—Continued 1964 1965 1965 Diffusion index title and components Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. May June July Aug.r Sept.p Index: 1957-59 = 100 D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURINGMtontinued Durable goods-Continued 112.3 99.7 108.3 r!04.4 104.. 9 96.3 100.6 108.7 Nondurable goods: Processed foods Tobacco products and bottled beverages Cotton products Wool products Manrnade fiber textile products Apparel Pulp paper and all ied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products, refined Rubber and rubber products Hides, skins, leather, and leather products 100.4 107.3 98.8 103.4 96.5 103.1 99.0 97.0 93.6 91.8 105.0 113.2 111.6 100.1 99.9 108.0 107.8 r!04.7 r!03.9 104.1 105.2 95.8 96.8 100.8 100.8 107.9 109.4 101.1 107.4 98.9 102.5 96.9 103.1 98.9 97.3 93.3 91.8 105.1 101.3 107.4 99.1 103.0 97.0 103.3 98.6 97.0 94.1 92.0 105.1 112.1 100.1 108.6 104.3 105.1 96.9 101.0 108.4 112.3 100.4 109.0 104.4 105.0 97.3 100.7 109.1 114.9 101.4 109.5 104.7 105.6 96.6 100.5 110.8 116.2 101.2 109.0 104.8 105.6 97.2 100.7 113.0 115.8 101.4 109.3 104.7 105.2 97.3 100.5 113.3 116.6 101.7 110.2 105.7 105.2 96.7 100.7 112.2 117.2 101.7 110.1 105.5 105.0 96.6 100.7 110.9 102.2 108.0 99.2 102.9 96.4 103.3 98.7 97.4 94.0 92.0 105.9 102.0 108.0 99.3 102.7 96.2 103.4 99.3 97.3 94.5 92.1 106.7 104.1 108.4 100.1 103.8 95.8 103.4 100.1 97.5 95.5 93.2 107.3 106.2 107.7 100.7 103.9 95.7 103.6 100.1 97.4 95.4 93.5 107.6 106.3 107.2 100.9 104.7 95.6 103.6 107.0 107.1 100.8 105.1 94.8 103.7 106.1 107.4 100.9 105.4 94.3 103.8 100.2 97.5 95.5 r93.5 108.4 100.3 97.3 97.4 93.4 112.0 100.4 97.4 96.7 93.5 111.2 r= revised; p = preliminary. •'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. Digitized for 54FRASER (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau. bed OCTOBER J965 ANALYTICAL MEASURES SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 6-month spans 1-month spans 1964 1965 1964 1965 Diffusion index title and components D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued Durable goods-Continued Nonferrous metals , Fabricated structural metal products , Fabricated nonstructural metal products , General purpose machinery and equipment , Miscellaneous machinery ( Electrical machinery and equipment , Motor vehicles , Miscellaneous products , Nondurable goods: Processed foods , Tobacco products and bottled beverages , Cotton products , Wool products ( Manmade fiber textile products , Apparel , Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products, refined « Rubber and rubber products Hides, skins, leather, and leather products . + - - + + + + O + - - + - + O+ 0 - + + 0 - -- - + - - + + + + -f + + + O + + + - + o - + - + H H - O + O + + -H + O- + O + + - + + + + O - - + + - 9-month spans 1-month spans 1964 D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS1 (23 industry components)2 Percent rising 3 Index of 500 stock prices Coal, bituminous Food composite Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) Textile products Paper Publishing Chemicals Drugs Oil composite Building materials composite. Steel Metal fabricating Machinery composite Office and business equipment... Electric household appliances ... Electronics Automobiles Radio and television broadcasters Telephone companies Electric companies Natural gas distributors Retai I stores composite Life insurance 24 1965 92 + 82 + 64 - 71 + 67 1964 0 81 25 + - 1965 - 75 - O + + 77 77 80 58 52 58 73 + o - - + + + + + -f + + = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. 1 Data are not seasonally adjusted. The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4. 3 Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter. 2 55 ANALYTICAL MEASURES OCTOBER ,965 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 1-month spans 1964 9-month spans 1964 1965 1965 Diffusion index title and components D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1 (26 area components) Percent rising 47 labor market areas Northeast region: Boston (7) Buffalo (19) Newark (11) New York (1) Paterson (20) Philadelphia (4) Pittsburgh (9) Providence (25) North Central region: Chicago (2) Cincinnati (21) Cleveland (10) Columbus (26) Detroit (5) Indianapolis (23) Kansas City (18) Milwaukee (15) Minneapolis (13) St. Louis (8) South region: Atlanta (17). Baltimore (12) Dallas (16) Houston (14) West region: Los Angeles (3) Portland (24) San Francisco (6) Seattle (22) 83 24 57 66 62 60 51 38 79 62 70 72 79 79 60 66 4 4- 4- 4 4- 4- 4 4 4 4 4 + + + - 4 4 4 4- 44- 4- 4- + 4- 4 4 + 4- 4 4- 4 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4- - 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4- - 4 4 4- 4 + 4 4 4 4 4- 4 4 4 44 4 + + + - _ + - + - + 4- 4 4 4 4- 4- + 4 4 + + + 4 4- - 4- 4 + 4 + 4 + 4- 4 + + 4 4- 4 + + 4 - 4 62 4 4 4 4- 4- 4 4 4- 4 4 4 - = rising; o -unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises. Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. 1 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each .labor market area. 56 BCD Technical Paper SUMMARY OF THE X-11 VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM Julius Shiskin, Allan H. Young, and John C. Musgrave Bureau of the Census I. HISTORY OF CENSUS SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT METHODS There are various and sundry methods for seasonally adjusting economic time series, all of which are based on the premise that seasonal fluctuations can be measured in an original series (O) and separated from trend, cyclical, trading-day, and irregular fluctuations. The seasonal component (S) is defined as the intrayear pattern of variation which is repeated constantly or in an evolving fashion from year to year. The trend-cycle component (C) includes the long-term trend and the business cycle. The trading-day component (TD) consists of variations which are attributed to the composition of the calendar. The irregular component (I) is composed of residual variations, such as the sudden impact of some political events, the effect of strikes, unseasonable weather conditions, reporting and sampling errors, etc. The seasonally adjusted series (CI) consists of the trend-cycle and irregular components. Experience has indicated that the seasonal, trend-cycle, trading-day, and irregular components are related in a multiplicative fashion (O= S x C x TD x I) for most national economic time series. The seasonal-adjustment method in the most widespread use today is the ratio-to-moving-average method, which was developed during the 1920's by Frederick R. Macaulay at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). It has the advantages of relatively precise measurement of the components and flexibility concerning the types of series which may be well adjusted by it. In 1954, the Bureau of the Census introduced the first electronic computer program for seasonally adjusting economic time series, making the application of the ratioto-moving-average method on a large-scale basis possible for the first time. Variants of the Census Method are now in widespread use throughout the world for adjusting series at the company, industry, and national-aggregate levels. In 1955, the original Census Bureau program was replaced with a revised procedure called Census Method II. Since that time, the Census Bureau has conducted an extensive re search program designed to improve seasonal adjustment methods. This program has moved forward on two fronts. First, there has been a major effort to improve the ratio-to-movingaverage method. This effort has been directed primarily to methods of improving the moving averages used to compute seasonal-factor and trend-cycle curves, the moving-aver age weights used for computing the ends of these curves, the estimation of trading-day variation from monthly data, and the handling of extreme values. In addition, research intended to exploit parametric methods using multiple regression techniques has been undertaken. Regression analysis allows for explicit functional specifications of the seasonal and trend-cycle components which lend themselves to conventional statistical analysis more readily than the estimates provided by the ratio-to-moving-average method. However, such techniques are presently not as desirable as the movingaverage methods in practice, since no regression models have yet been demonstrated empirically to provide sufficiently accurate estimates of the trend-cycle and the seasonal, particularly in the current period. From time to time, experimental variants of Method II which incorporate the results of this re sear chare introduced. They are identified with the letter "X" and a sequence number. The first such variant to be made available to the public (1960) was X-3. It differed from the original Method II in the method of replacing extreme values and the method of computing the seasonal factors for the most recent years. The latest variants to be introduced (1961) were X-9, which was used as the standard program, and X-10, which was used to adjust more erratic series. X-10 contains a variable seasonal-factor curve routine, which selects a seasonalfactor moving average whose length depends on the relative amplitudes of the irregular and seasonal fluctuations in a given month. Thus, it is able to fit more stable seasonal curves to highly irregular series than previous variants of Method II. In October 1965, the X-11 version of Method II replaced the X-9 and X-10 versions as the standard program at the Bureau of the Census and is now available to other users. It includes several improvements over earlier versions. The new features in X-11 provide additional tools for the time series analyst. While the computations in the standard program are sufficient for most applications, the analyst can select optional features peculiar to his own needs. For example, he may choose between the additive and multiplicative versions and between the full seasonal-adjustment routine and one limited to the calculation of summary measures computed from seasonally adjusted data obtained from other sources; the cr limit for identifying extreme values may be varied, providing for contingencies such as strikes; and he may specify the moving averages to be used in estimating the trend-cycle and seasonal components. Another possibility is to take into account both the absolute and relative relations among the seasonal, trend-cycle, and irregular components A full description of X-11 will appear in Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. A Fortran deck for X-11 will also be available from the Bureau of the Census at cost. Morton Somer programed the monthly versions of X-11 and Norman E. Bakka programed the quarterly versions. 57 of time series by making additive and multiplicative adjustments sequentially. As a result of the availability of these options, X-ll is an instrument, not only for the massive seasonal adjustment of time series, but also for seasonally adjusting unusual series, for research into new techniques of time series analysis, and for studies of the relations among different types of fluctuations.1 a .weighted 15-term average was applied regardless of the I/C ratio, more appropriate moving averages will be selected for highly irregular and very smooth series. In this manner, the range of series which can be adequately ad justed by Method II is extended. For special purposes, the user can specify the moving average to be applied rather than accept the selection provided by the program. More details are given in section IV. The major improvements in X-ll are summarized in section II and described in sections III to VI. X-ll is compared with earlier versions of Method II in section VII. Graduated Treatment of Extremes II. SUMMARY OF IMPROVEMENTS IN X-ll Quarterly Program In addition to the monthly seasonal adjustment program, a program (X-11Q) is now available to adjust quarterly series. The operations in the quarterly program are analogous to those in the monthly program. Additive Programs Both X-ll and X-11Q contain options which enable the user to make additive as well as multiplicative adjustments. As in earlier versions of Method II, an option is available to compute summary measures of the trend-cycle and irregular components from seasonally adjusted input data. Fortran Coding The X-ll and X-11Q programs are available in Fortran IV, a simplified programming language which can be used on many different computers. The selection of Fortran makes X-ll readily available for use on many medium- and largescale electronic computers. Program modifications can easily be made to adapt the computations or selection of output tables to specific uses. Trading-Day Routine A technique for estimating trading-day variation from information contained in the monthly data is included in X-ll. The monthly irregular values are regressed upon a calendar that contains the number of times each day of the week occurs in each particular month in order to estimate seven daily weights. The user has the choice of basing a trading-day adjustment solely on the internally computed estimates, combining the internal estimates with a priori information that may be available or basing the adjustment solely on a priori information as in earlier versions of Method II. More information concerning the new trading-day routine is given in section III. Variable Trend-Cycle Moving-Average Routine A choice of several moving averages is available in X-ll for estimating the trend-cycle component. The appropriate moving average of the seasonally adjusted series is chosen on the basis of a preliminary estimate of the T/C ratio, which relates the average absolute month-to-month percent change in the irregular to that in the trend-cycle. While the trendcycle moving average selected for most series will be about the same as that in previous versions of the program, where -""For the advantages of time series analysis with the types of adjustments made by this program, see Electronic Computers and Business Indicators by Julius Shi skin, National Bureau of Economic Research, Occasional Paper No 0 57, New York, 19570 58 An improved treatment of extreme values is introduced. Rather than designating values in the irregular component that fall more than 2 standard deviations (a's) from 100 as "extreme" and assigning them a "weight" of zero as was done in earlier variants, a graduated scheme is used. Values outside 2.5 a are considered definitely extreme and receive zero weight. Weights for values between 1.5 and 2.5 crare graduated linearly from full weight at 1.5 cr to zero weight at 2.5 <X Values within 1.5 cr receive full weight. Iteration, based upon a modified original series where irregular values beyond 1.5 crare modified with the graduated weights, is used to reduce the effect of large irregular values upon the final estimates of the seasonal and trendcycle components. More details are given in section V. Additional Tests and Summary Measures New tests and summary measures have been added as analytical aids. Included are the following: 1. New summary measures.—Estimates of the percent contributions of S, C, I, TD, and P (prior adjustment factors, such as holiday adjustments) to the variation in O are given as additional summary measures. These measures give the user a better appreciation of the importance of each component than did the previous technique of presenting ratios of average absolute mojith-to-month percent changes (I/C, I/S, S/O, etc.). I/C is now shown for 1- to 12-month spans instead of the previous 1- to 5-month spans, although MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is still shown as "6" when 1/C * 1.0 over the 5-jnqnth span. Also, other summary measures such as I, CI, etc., are computed over spans other than 1 month. In addition to measures of average percent change without regard to sign (I, C, etc.), the average percent change with regard to sign and the standard deviations of the percent changes in O, I, C, S, CI and MCD (the MCD-span moving average of CI) over several monthly spans are shown. 2. X-ll test for stable seasonality. —This consists of an analysis-of-variance F-test for stable seasonality. The F-test is applied to the S-I ratios to determine whether seasonality is present in the unadjusted series. 3. Test for the existence of trading-day variation.— An analysis-of-variance F-test may be applied to determine whether trading-day variation is present in the unadjusted series. Since this method also tests the significance of the daily weights which may be computed internally from the data, the F-ratio may be used to decide whether or not to apply the computed daily weights. 4. Standard errors.—Estimates of standard errors of the trading-day weights and monthly adjustment factors are included to aid the user in assessing the significance of trading-day variation in the series. More details on these tests and summary measures are given in section VI. III. TRADING-DAY ADJUSTMENT An option in X-ll provides for a trading-day adjustment based upon the actual variations in the data. Seven daily weights are estimated by regressing the irregular series upon the number of times each day of the week occurs in each particular month. From these seven weights, monthly factors are constructed and divided into the data to remove trading-day variation. A trading-day adjustment based upon the information contained in the data rather than upon a priori information concerning the daily pattern of activity has the following advantages: 1. It is less expensive than attempting to establish independently the pattern of daily activity for each individual series. 2. It often provides a better adjustment because allowance is made for the net effect of several factors related to the calendar, some of which (such as the effect of bookkeeping practices) may not be possible to determine a priori. In general, when the irregular component of .the series has an average absolute month-to-month change (I) of less than about 8 percent, the estimates provided from the data are adequate for the removal of trading-day variation. When the data are more irregular, the routine will not provide useful estimates. Standard tests of significance are provided to help appraise the reliability of the estimates for a given series and to determine whether trading-day variation (or residual trading-day variation if a prior adjustment has been made) is present in the original series. In addition to the option of estimating seven daily weights from the data, two other options are available: 1. Rather than basing an adjustment upon estimates made from the data, seven daily weights from which the computer constructs monthly adjustment factors can be supplied by the user. This option is useful when there is reliable a priori information concerning trading-day variation or when the user wants to apply the same weights as those used in another adjustment. 2. Seven daily weights can be supplied by the user; and, if they do not entirely explain the trading-day variation found in the data, they can be corrected on the basis of the internal evidence and the modified weights can be used to make the trading-day adjustment. In addition to these new techniques which use seven daily weights, an option of supplying a set of monthly adjustment factors which the computer divides into the unadjusted data is available. This option can be used in place of the new techniques to adjust for trading-day variation; or it can be used with or without the new techniques to ad just for holidays, strikes, etc. sonally adjusted series will be virtually the same whether or not this option is used, since length-of-month variation will be included in the seasonal factors if allowance is not made for it in the trading-day factors. IV. MOVING AVERAGES Variable Trend -Cycle Curve Routine In X-ll, the moving average used to estimate the trendcycle component is selected on the basis of the amplitude of irregular variations in the data relative to the amplitude of long-term systematic variations. This routine selects a moving average that provides a suitable compromise between the need to smooth the irregular with a long-term inflexible moving average and the need to accurately reproduce the systematic element with a short-term flexible moving average. For many series, the average chosen in X-ll has about the same smoothing power as those used in earlier versions of Method II. For highly irregular or very smooth series, a more appropriate average is chosen, thereby extending the range of series which can be well adjusted by Method II. The selection of the appropriate moving average for estimating the trend-cycle component is made on the basis of a preliminary estimate of the I/C ratio (the ratio of the average absolute month-to-month change in the irregular to that in the trend-cycle). A 13-term Henderson average of the preliminary seasonally adjusted series is used as the preliminary estimate of the trend-cycle, and the ratio of the preliminary seasonally adjusted series to the 13-term average is used as the preliminary estimate of the irregular. The appropriate average selected for a given value of I/U is given in the following table: I/C Length of moving average selected 0.00-0.99 9-term Henderson 1.00-3.49 13-term Henderson 3.50 and over 23- term Henderson The three new weighted moving averages in the variable trend-cycle routine replace the weighted 15-term Spencer average used in earlier versions of Method II. The new averages meet the same criterion of smoothness as the 15term Spencer average; i.e., they minimize the sum of squares of the third differences of the curve. The distinctive feature in X-ll is the introduction of a 9-term moving average for smooth series and a 23-term moving average for highly irregular series. (A 5-term Henderson average is used for all quarterly series.) Seasonal-Factor Curve Routine In computing monthly trading-day adjustment factors from a set of seven daily weights (a priori or those computed by X-ll), an option is available to include a length-of-month adjustment in the monthly adjustment factors.2 The sea- The S-I ratios for each month are smoothed by a 3x5-term moving average (a 3-term average of a 5-term average) to estimate final seasonal factors. In the X-9 version, S-I ratios were smoothed with a 3x3- or a 3x5-term average depending on the value of I. The weights for extending the 3x5 average at the ends of series in X-ll are the same as those used in X-9. "Length-of-month variation" is defined as variation attributable to the number of days in a particular month, while "trading-day variation" is defined as variation attributable to the number of Mondays, Tuesdays, etc., in a particular ' month. Optionally, the user may specify any of the following seasonal factor curves to compute final seasonal factors for any particular month: 3-, 3x3-, 3x5-, 3x9-, n-term, where"n" is the number of years of data in a particular month (i.e., a stable seasonal). 59 V. GRADUATED TREATMENT OF EXTREMES Many economic series contain extreme values which must be modified or removed before adequate estimates of the seasonal, trading-day, and trend-cycle components can be made. These extremes may reflect economic developments, such as strikes; reactions to unexpected political events; unseasonable weather; errors of measurement; etc. In many instances, allowance for extremes can be made by the user before the data are submitted for seasonal adjustment. However, it is generally more feasible to rely upon the computerized statistical tests provided in Method II to detect and remove extremes. Previous versions of Method II computed preliminary estimates of S and the standard deviation of I and designated as extreme those S-I ratios which fell 2 or more cr*s beyond the estimates of S. The a's were computed separately for each month. Values designated as extreme were replaced in the original version of Method II with an average of the extreme value and the ratios for that month in the preceding and folio wing years. InX-3, X-9, and X-10, the extremes were replaced with an average of the two nearest nonextreme S-I ratios on either side of the extreme for that month. The previous techniques are replaced in X-ll with a new scheme that tests each value of a preliminary irregular component against a standard deviation computed over a moving 5-year period (60 months or 20 quarters). For example, the irregulars in 1952 are tested for extremeness by comparing them with a cr computed from 1950 to 1954. A preliminary cr is computed, values beyond 2.5 (Tare removed, and a is recomputed. Values outside 2.5 a are considered extreme and are assigned a zero (0.0) weight. Values inside 1.5 cr receive full weight (1.0). Values between 2.5 and 1.5 cr receive partial weight, graduated linearly from zero at 2.5 crto full weight at 1.5 or. The choice of 1.5 and 2.5 as cr limits is optional. For some purposes other limits may be desirable. Lower limits are sometimes better for highly irregular series or series substantially affected by strikes, where a greater portion of the series may be regarded as extreme. Likewise, higher limits are sometimes better for very smooth series. Iteration is used in the following ways to improve the designation of extremes: 1. The computation of cr is iterated by computing a preliminary cr, removing extremes beyond 2.5 a and recomputing cr. 2. The process of developing a preliminary irregular component in which extremes are identified involves iteration by (a) modifying values in the original series corresponding to months where less than full weight was assigned to an irregular, (b) reestimating the trendcycle and seasonal components and deriving a new preliminary irregular component, and (c) reidentifying extremes and modifying the original series again. After modifying the original series for the second time, final estimates of the trend-cycle and seasonal are developed. This new technique of identifying extremes results in the following improvements: 1. It modifies the original series rather than the S-I ratios, thereby taking account of the effect of extremes upon the trend-cycle. 60 2. Assigning a graduated weight pattern to nearextreme values removes the all-or-nothing decision in earlier versions of Method II, where a value might receive full weight in one adjustment and zero weight in a subsequent adjustment containing additional data. This phenomenon had, at times, contributed to substantial revisions in the seasonal factors. 3. Computing the cr limits over all 12 months makes it possible to identify more extremes in a single month. 4. Computing the cr limits over moving 5-year periods substantially abates the effect of additional data upon revisions in the seasonal factors for the early years of the series. In estimating trading-day variation, a less complex technique is used to identify extremes than that described above. A "trading-day standard deviation" is computed, extremes beyond 2.5 cr are removed, and cr is recomputed. For the entire period included in the trading-day regression, irregular values beyond 2.5 cr limits are excluded from the regression. The X-ll treatment is an adaptation of that introduced in 1964 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It combines the iterative procedure with the variable trend-cycle moving average and trading-day routines. Also, the Census Bureau procedure of developing a modified original series allows for the contigency that several consecutive values may be regarded as extreme, as in the case of a prolonged strike. The limits of 1.5 and 2.5 cr are optional in X-ll, whereas the BLS procedure uses fixed limits of 1.0 and 2.8 cr. VI. NEW TESTS AND SUMMARY MEASURES X-ll Test for the Existence of Stable Seasonality A test for the existence of stable seasonality (available optionally in X-9 and X-10) is performed on the final unmodified S-I ratios in X-ll. It consists of computing the ratio of the "between months" variance to the residual variance. If this F-ratio is above a given tabled value, a message is printed that stable seasonality is present. Some caveats in interpreting the results of the X-ll test are given below: 1. The test may not be completely reliable when the variance of the irregular is very large or very small relative to the variance of the seasonal. In such cases, the user may find it necessary to examine I and S before making a decision. 2. When the variance of the seasonal is sufficiently small in absolute value or small relative to the variance in the other systematic components (trend-cycle and trading-day), there may be a case for not making a seasonal adjustment even though the tests show that the seasonal is significant relative to the irregular. 3. The existence of moving seasonality may reduce the "between months" variance in the stable seasonality test so that the test may find no evidence of stable seasonality when in fact a pronounced seasonal pattern is present. 4. Special problems arise when a series contains discontinuities in the seasonal pattern or when parts of a series contain no seasonal pattern. These conditions may be ascertained by an inspection of the seasonal factors and their charts. When a series contains an abrupt change in the seasonal pattern, it is best to break the series at the change and test and ad just the two parts of the series separately. When the amount of seasonal variation in a series has been declining over time, it would be well to analyze only the most recent years and to base decisions concerning adjustment of current data on this analysis. Tests for the Existence of Trading-Day Variation As part of the trading-day routine in X-ll, tests for the existence of trading- day variation are provided as follows: An F-test is performed to test for the significance of the trading-day regression. If prior daily weights (or monthly factors) are applied to the original series, this test determines the adequacy of the prior adjustment. If not, this test determines the existence of trading- day variation in the unadjusted data. In addition, t- tests are provided to determine whether each of seven computed daily weights is significantly different from the corresponding prior weight and/or 1.0 (no trading-day variation is represented by all seven weights equal to 1.0). As an option, the user may make the decision as to whether to apply the estimated weights according to the value of the F- ratio. Also, standard errors of the daily weights and monthly adjustment factors are supplied to aid the user in assessing the significance of trading-day variation. It is to be noted that only a few of the innovations in X-ll apply to the seasonal adjustment process itself. Most concern prior adjustments of the data and add further measures for analyzing and interpreting the seasonally adjusted series. Experience in developing X-ll (and earlier variants of Census Method II) has demonstrated that we find it difficult to make improvements in our method of seasonal adjustment. We feel that while X-ll has much to contribute to time series analysis in the broad sense, it represents only a small step forward so far as seasonal adjustment is concerned. Highly irregular series may be more adequately adjusted by X-ll because of the graduated treatment of extremes and the choice of several moving averages to estimate the trendcycle. Revisions between preliminary and final seasonalfactor estimates for early years of a series have been virtually eliminated in X-ll. Limited evidence indicates that current-year revisions in X-ll are about the same as those in X-9 and X-10. When widespread experience with this variant is acquired by our staff and other users, a systematic evaluation of these changes will be made. VIII. DESCRIPTION OF THE COMPUTER PRINTOUT The computer program is divided into seven main parts, as follows: Part A - Adjustments for trading-day variation, holiday variation, etc., (when supplied by the user) are applied prior to the seasonal computations. New Summary Measures Part B - Preliminary estimates of internally computed trading-day factors (when applicable) and weights for the irregular component are estimated. As a set of new summary measures, estimates of the percent contributions of S, C, I, TD and P to the variation in O are given. For example, the percent contribution of S would be Part C - Final estimates of trading-day factors (when applicable) and weights for the irregular component are computed. S2+C2+T2+fD2+P2 where S, C, T, TD and P are as defined in sections I and II. The measures of average percent change without regard to sign (I, C, etc.), which are computed over 1-month spans in earlier _versions_pf ^Method II,_are now computed over longer spans. O, CI, I, C, S, P and TD are computed and printed out over 1- to 6- and?-, 9-, 11-, 12- month spans. Also, measures of the average percent changes with regard to sign and the standard deviations of the percent changes for O, I, C, S, CI and MCD over the same spans are given to facilitate applications of statistical tests to the components. The I/C ratio is now printed out for 1- to 12- month spans, although months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is still designated as "6" when I/C > 1.0 over the 5- month span as in earlier versions of Method II. VII. COMPARISON OF X-ll WITH EARLIER VARIANTS OF METHOD II The sample printout in section IX illustrates some of the improvements introduced in X-ll. The trading-day routine and the new tests and summary measures are shown for U.S. General Imports. Part D - Final estimates of the seasonal factors, seasonally adjusted series, and trend-cycle and irregular components are developed. Part E - For analytical purposes, the original and seasonally adjusted series and the irregular component are modified for extreme values. Also, the ratios (differences) of annual totals and the month-to-month percent changes (differences) in the original and seasonally adjusted series are computed. Part F - The MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted series and the X-ll summary measures are calculated. Part G - Point charts of the trend-cycle, seasonally adjusted series, seasonal factors, and S-I ratios are developed. The sample printout shown in section IX is the standard X-ll printout. Although all the computations described above are performed (except part A, which is not applicable), only the final estimates of the components and the analytical tables are printed out. 61 IX. SAMPLE PRINTOUT Shown below is the monthly X-11 multiplicative adjustment of U.S. General Imports, 1953 to 1964, with the standard printout. Trading-day weights are computed internally. This series is shown for purposes of illustration only. It is not directly comparable to the official published series because of the difference in the time periods of the adjustments and because of prior strike adjustments which have been applied to the official series. To conserve space, only part of the trend-cycle and seasonal-factor charts (Gl and G2) are shown. The complete charts appear in the actual computer printout. X-ll SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS DIVISION SEPTEMBER 28?1965 THE X-ll PROGRAM IS DIVIDED INTO SEVEN MAJOR PARTS: PART DESCRIPTION A. PRIOR ADJUSTMENTS? IF ANY B. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF IRREGULAR COMPONENT WEIGHTS AND REGRESSION TRADING DAY FACTORS C. FINAL ESTIMATES OF ABOVE D. FINAL ESTIMATES OF SEASONAL? TREND-CYCLE AND IRREGULAR COMPONENTS E. ANALYTICAL TABLES F. SUMMARY MEASURES G. CHARTS TABLES ARE IDENTIFIED BY THEIR PART LETTER AND SEQUENCE WITHIN THE PART. A GIVEN TABLE HAS THE SAME IDENTIFICATION IN THE STANDARD? LONG AND FULL PRINTOUTS. THE SAME NUMBER IS GIVEN TO CORRESPONDING TABLES IN PARTS B? C AND D. THUS? TABLES BIO.? CIO. AND D10. ARE ALL TABLES OF SEASONAL FACTORS. WHERE NO CORRESPONDING TABLE EXISTS THE SEQUENCE NO. IS NOT USED IN THE PART. THUS? B8. AND D8. ARE TABLES OF UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS BUT THERE IS NO C8. THIS SERIES RUN AUG 1965 SERIES TITLE- U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS PERIOD COVERED- 1/53 TO 12/64 SERIES NO. X746 TYPE OF RUN - MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT STANDARD PRINTOUT. STANDARD CHARTS. TRADING DAY REGRESSION COMPUTED STARTING 1953 EXCLUDING IRREGULAR VALUES OUTSIDE 2.5-SIGMA LIMITS. TRADING DAY REGRESSION ESTIMATES APPLIED STARTING 1953 IF SIGNIFICANT. SIGMA LIMITS FOR GRADUATING EXTREME VALUES ARE 1.5 AND 2.5 62 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1. ORIGINAL SERIES YEAR JAN MAR FEB JUN APR AUG JUL MAY SEP 1953 922.4 855.9 1004.2 1013.1 901.9 839. b 908.1 933.0 925.7 1954 832.8 808.8 864.6 946-9 824.8 821.8 829.2 957.2 780.4 1955 871.2 849.9 1019.3 871.1 959.3 936.8 885.3 960.6 947.1 1956 1073.3 1051.2 1102.1 1094.8 1033.8 1051.6 1055.3 991.3 995.2 1957 1114.8 992.9 1132.6 1118.7 1105.8 986.0 1147.8 1042.7 1007.4 1958 1095.9 955.9 1071.7 1056.9 1060.9 1031.1 1049.1 950.1 1073.4 1959 1154.1 1118.6 1295.1 1220.9 1264.2 1369.8 1250.0 1187.8 1395.3 1174.1 1329.4 1409.7 1293.8 1289.4 1332.0 1182.7 1258.5 1192.7 1960 1961 1149.7 1067.7 1255.3 1063.0 1222.9 1232.1 1287.0 1252.1 1197.2 1962 1367.6 1213.0 1380.8 1334.0 1453.1 1348.7 1333.6 1356.8 1341.5 1963 1116.2 1385.4 1462.5 1454.2 1458.9 1355.9 1502.1 1459.7 1398.3 1964 1444.5 1336.8 1590.2 1560.6 1455.7 1593.7 1610.7 1491.0 1561.8 AVGE 1109.7 1080.5 TABLE TOTAL: 1215.7 1161.2 168045 .8 1174.7 MEAN: 1175.0 1167.0 1139.9 1169.1 1151.3 STD. DEVIATION: AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS C14. EXTREME IRREGULAR VALUES EXCLUDED FROM TRADING DAY REGRESSION (OUTSIDE 2.5-SIGMA LIMIT) YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 1953 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 109.7 1954 ******* ******* 93.4 ******* ******* 109.4 ******* ******* ******* 1955 ******* ******* ******* 91.4 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 1956 ******* ******* ******* 91.9 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ULC 9O6.6 942.6 1008.0 10b8.6 1142.4 1253.5 14bt>.9 1174.5 1294.2 1359.4 1528.5 1755.0 1185.8 12*+0.b TOTAL 10873.3 10215.4 11384.4 12614.9 12982-4 12834.5 15207.2 15017.5 14713.8 16379.8 17138.0 18684.7 P. 2t SEKIES OCT ******* ******* ******* ******* NOV UtC ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 91.1 ******* ******* AVGE ******** ******** ******** ******** ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** 1964 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******** SUM OF SQUARES DGRS.OF FREEDOM ******* ******* ******* ******* 111.4 89.4 ******* ******* ******* ******* 102.3 ******* ******* ******* X746 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* SOURCE OF VARIANCE ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 1200.0 223.6 NOV 849.2 839.7 1064.9 986.7 1043.2 1085.6 1283.0 1196.7 1335.0 1449.2 1425.0 1671.7 ******* ******* ******* 88.5 ******* ******* 82.4 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN FINAL TRADING DAY REGRESSION REGRESSION COMBINED PRIOR COEFF. WEIGHT WEIGHT 1. 000 .565 1.565 MONDAY 1.000 .402 1.402 TUESDAY .156 1.156 1.000 WEDNESDAY .317 1.000 1.317 THURSDAY .178 1.178 1. 000 FRIDAY 1.000 -.900 • 100 SATURDAY -.717 1. 000 .283 SUNDAY * COMBINED WT. SIGNIFICANTLY ** COMBINED WT. SIGNIFICANTLY ******* ******* ******* ******* 106.8 ******* ******* OCT 813.4 766.6 1010.9 1121.0 1148.1 1150.4 1201.5 1184.0 1357.6 1442.1 1591.3 1613.0 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 C15. ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 109.0 P. 1» 3i SEKIES MILLIONS OF DOLLARS X746 T T ST. ERROR (PRIOR WT.) (1) (COMB.WT. ) 4.170** 4. 170* .135 3.049* 3.049** .132 1 .175 • 133 1. 175 2.327 2.327 .136 1 .259 1.259 • 141 -6 .574** .137 -6.574* -5. 114* -5 .114** • 140 DIFFERENT FROM 1 AT 1% LEVEL DIFFERENT FROM PRIOR WEIGHT AT 1% LEVEL MEAN SQUARE F 15.468 45.811*** 6. 92 • 808 REGRESSION .338 125. 42 .206 ERROR TOTAL 135.014 131. *** RESIDUAL TRADING DAY VARIATION PRESENT AT THE 158 LEVEL STANDARD ERRORS OF TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS DERIVED FROM REGRESSION 31-DAY MONTHS: .^2 30-DAY MONTHS: 29-DAY MONTHS: 28-DAY MONTHS: .43 .47 .00 COEFFICIENTS AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS C16. TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS DERIVED FROM REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS FRI THUR C16A. REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS - MON TUE WED 1.565 1.402 1.156 1.317 1.178 C16B. REGRESSION TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS AUG JUN JUL MAR YEAR JAN FEB APR MAY 95.4 96.6 100.8 103.2 98.7 102.1 99.1 101.6 1953 100.8 96.6 101.9 98.7 99.1 103.6 1954 95.4 101.6 100.8 103.6 102.8 101.6 95.4 96.6 99.1 1955 97.6 102.1 100.8 98.7 102.8 97.6 100.8 103.2 99.5 1956 103.6 98.7 95.4 102.1 94-6 1957 102.8 99.1 103.2 98.7 99.5 102.8 95.4 101.9 1958 96.6 102.1 99.1 96.6 100.8 95.4 103.2 102.1 98.7 1959 99.1 101.6 103.6 102.8 100.8 95.4 101.6 104.7 95.4 97.6 1960 102.8 96.6 103.6 1961 102.1 101.6 100.8 99.1 94.6 102.1 100.8 102.8 98.7 97.6 1962 103.6 99.1 99.5 98.7 102.1 94.6 103.6 102.8 95.4 103.2 1963 99.1 102.1 96.6 95.4 100.8 102.1 103.2 99.5 1964 101.6 SEP 101.9 101.6 101.6 94.6 99.5 103.2 101.9 101.6 97.6 94.6 99.5 101.9 OCT 98.7 95.4 96-6 103.6 102.8 102.1 98.7 96.6 100.8 103.6 102.8 98.7 NOV 99.5 103.2 101.9 101.6 97.6 94.6 99.5 101.9 101.6 101.6 97.6 99.5 DEC 102.8 102.1 98.7 96.6 100.8 103.6 102.8 98.7 95-4 96.6 100.8 102.8 AVGE 100.0 100.0 99.7 100.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7 100.1 100.0 100.3 TABLE TOTAL: 14401.1 C16C. REGRESSION TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS* ONE YEAR AHEAD YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 1965 95.4 99.1 103.6 101.6 96.6 101.9 98.7 SEP 101.6 OCT 95.4 NOV 103.2 DEC 102.1 AVGE 100.0 AUG 100.8 4* SERIES SAT .100 SUN .283 63 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF GULAR COMPONENT FINAL WEIGHTS FOR IRREGULAR GRADUATION RANGE FROM 1 V 1.5 TO 2.5 SIGMA JAN FEB MAR JUL YEAR JUN MAY APR 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1953 100.0 1954 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 1955 100.0 100.0 100.0 21.2 100.0 100.0 1956 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 .0 1957 76.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 29.0 14.0 100.0 1958 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. C 100.0 100.0 100.0 1959 100.0 100.0 67.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 .0 1960 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1961 100.0 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1962 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 46.2 .0 100.0 100.0 1963 .0 100.0 100.0 1964 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 P. 5» SERIES DOLLARS AUG 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 87.9 100.0 SEP .0 100.0 100.0 78.5 100.0 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 OCT 93.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 NOV 100.0 100.0 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 60.7 100.0 100.0 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS CIS. TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FROM COMBINED DAILY WEIGHTS (SAME AS TABLE C16.) C19. YEAR 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 D 8. FINAL YEAR 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 AVGE 1107.8 1080.3 TABLE TOTAL: 1219.3 1157.2 168009.8 1177.7 MEAN: 1175.3 1166.7 1164.1 1142.8 1153.3 STD. DEVIATION: AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS AUG SEP MAY JUL MAR JUN JAN FEB APR 96.4 102.2 108.4 102.6 98.4 97.5 102.4 94.2 108.3 99.5 97.2 91.8 97.3 108.2 97.9 102.4 95.6 109.3 102.8 94.6 92.8 109.5 97.0 102.9 98.2 96.1 97.5 100.4 97.1 96.0 98.1 106.2 99. 1 101.0 96.7 94.5 99.8 110.7 101.9 95.9 97.3 93.4 102.3 100.3 94.0 93.8 96.3 106.5 103.6 97.3 101.8 99.9 99.6 92-1 105.5 105.3 95.4 95.3 105.6 99.8 104.1 94.5 97.0 103.7 98.7 98.0 96.5 98.4 102.5 92.5 95.6 101.1 98.1 96.9 106.8 100.6 101.7 109.6 99.2 93.9 96.9 98.4 105.0 103.8 97.7 104.0 101.8 99.4 91.5 98.9 101.4 96.0 100.3 100.0 109.1 99.7 78.2 100.0 99.6 98.4 96.7 101.5 105.6 100.0 100.2 90.8 101.7 96.3 98.2 94.6 TABLE TOTAL: 100.4 106.1 14396- 4 101.5 100.8 99.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 6t SERIES AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ADJUSTED* ORIGINAL SERIES *ADJUSTED BY... TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS DERIVED FROM REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT 863.5 934.6 997.4 945.8 996.2 903.9 889.4 869.3 908.8 824.2 834.4 873.3 858.3 816-0 941.7 832.7 929.6 818.2 768.3 803.9 901.8 857.5 991.3 951.7 892.6 922.3 928.4 927.1 931.7 1046.4 1064.7 1018.5 1116.7 996.4 1064.8 1059.3 1043.2 1033.6 1051.9 1081.8 1084.2 1001.8 1187.7 1083.8 1083.1 1042.2 1107.7 1056.5 1012.5 1116.6 1073.4 964.4 1109.3 1037.6 1074.9 1036.4 1020.3 996.3 1039.9 1126.8 1169.4 1128.6 1284.8 1202.0 1325.7 1327.1 1224.3 1229.5 1369.9 1217.4 1231.2 1270.3 1371.0 1325.7 1279.1 1311.3 1240.3 1214.5 1173.4 1225.6 1140.5 1077.2 1229.5 1123.5 1180.2 1212.1 1332.2 1217.8 1226.7 1346.8 1319.8 1223.8 1399.1 1340.8 1413.3 1381.9 1323.0 1328.9 1417.9 1391.7 1085.6 1397.8 1533.7 1408.8 1428.9 1433.1 1449.6 1479.0 1405.4 1547.7 1414.8 1343.9 1577.5 1536.4 1526.5 1544.0 1577.6 1543.4 1533.3 1634.3 AVGE S.D. UEC 100.0 100.0 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 70.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 97.1 97.6 P. 7» SERIES NOV 853.5 813.5 1045.5 970.7 1068.9 1147.4 1289.6 1174.9 1314.3 1425.7 1460.1 1680.2 DEC 881.7 923.2 1021.3 1095.8 1133.3 1209.7 1426.7 1190.0 1357.2 1407.1 1516.3 1706.9 1196.9 220.3 1187.0 1239.1 OCT 94.0 95.9 102.0 101.6 103.5 102.1 93.3 102.8 104.5 102.7 105.6 101.8 NOV 98.6 96.0 100.3 91.6 99.8 101.8 98.1 100.2 100.8 104.4 99.7 103.4 DEC 102.9 107.3 97.1 103.6 106.7 105.2 107.7 102.8 103.1 102-1 103.5 103.9 100.8 99.6 103.8 TOTAL J10868.4 J10213.2 ] 11417.5 ]12597.4 J12978.3 J12836.6 J15194.8 J15007.4 ]14758.1 ]16373.1 J17146.1 J18618.9 P. 8t SERIES X746 AVGE 100.5 99.9 99.2 98.8 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.4 101.0 100.8 99.4 100.0 STABLE SEASONALITY TEST BETWEEN MONTHS RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES 1235.000 1936.703 DGRS • OF FREEDOM 11 132 MEAN SQUARE 112.273 14.672 F 7.652** **STABLE SEASONALITY PRESENT AT THE 1% LEVEL AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS D 9. FINAL REPLACEMENT VALUES FOR EXTREME SI RATIOS YEAR FEB MAR APR MAY AUG JUN JAN JUL SEP ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 1953 94.8 100* 8 ******* 1 954 ******* ******* ******* ******* 102.7 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 1955 ******* ******* ******* 102.3 ******* ******* ******* ******* 1956 97.3 ******* ******* 109*8 ******* ******* 1957 99 . 1 97 • 9 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 1958 ******* ******* ******* ******* 96.6 104.2 ******* ******* ******* 1959 99.7 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 1960 ******* ******* ******* 99.1 1961 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 97.1 1962 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 90.9 107.0 ******* 97.6 101.0 ******* 1963 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 1964 P. 9« SERIES OCT NOV DEC 94.3 ******* ******* ******* 105.2 ******* ******* 97.8 ******* ******* 103.0 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* 106.7 ******* ******* ******* ******* 103.1 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* D 9A. YEAR TO YEAR CHANGE IN IRREGULAR AND SEASONAL COMPONENTS AND MOVING SEASONALITY RATIO JUN JAN FEB MAR APR JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV MAY .859 2.504 1.578 1.373 1.181 1.636 2.250 2.395 1.626 2.059 2.521 I .395 .286 .310 .263 .365 .429 .313 .698 .269 .337 .544 S 2.18 9.53 4.80 4.40 4.45 5.09 7.49 3.81 7.20 3.43 3.79 RATIO 64 DEC 1.844 .242 7.63 X746 AVGE ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ** ***** ** ***** ** ***** ** ***** ** ***** ******** D10. FINAL YEAR 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 SEASONAL JAN 102.2 102.3 102.2 101.9 101.6 101.1 100.5 100.0 99.3 98.7 98.1 97.9 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS FACTORS FEB MAR JUN APR JUL AUG MAY 95.4 108.1 101.4 106.0 99.0 97.3 96.0 95.5 108.2 101.2 105.5 99.0 97.3 96.1 95.4 108.2 104.4 101.1 99.1 97.3 96.0 95.0 108.0 101.4 102.6 99.4 97.2 95.8 94.8 107.3 101.1 101.5 100.0 97.1 95.7 94.5 106.8 101.5 99.8 100.7 97.2 96.0 94.0 106.0 101.6 99.3 101.3 97.4 96.4 93.6 105.7 98.8 101.6 101.7 97.7 97.1 93.1 105.3 101.4 99.0 101.6 98.3 97.9 92.6 105.5 101.1 99.2 101.3 99.0 98.7 91.8 105.5 99.5 101.0 100.8 99.5 99.0 91.4 105.6 99.5 101.2 100.7 99.6 99.0 TABLE TOTAL: 14408.8 D10A. SEASONAL FACTORS* ONE YEAR AHEAD YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR 1965 97.8 91.2 105.6 99.5 MEAN: 100.1 MAY 101.3 JUN 100.6 P.10» SERIES SEP 93.7 93.9 94.2 94.5 95.2 95.8 96.3 96.5 96.7 96.7 96.6 96.6 STD. DEVIATION: DEC 104.8 104.9 105.3 105.5 105.4 105.2 104.7 104.3 103.6 103.4 103.1 103.1 AVGE 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.0 100.1 100.0 100.0 DEC 103.1 AVGE 100.0 3.7 OCT 103.5 NOV 101.8 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Dll. FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR JUN MAY JUL AUG SEP 914.3 904.9 941.1 921.3 1953 912.6 933.1 914.0 905.7 970.0 1954 853.9 854.5 848.1 771.0 938.6 855.6 851.8 818.6 893.0 1955 916.6 941.1 882.2 899.1 855.2 930.5 954.0 965.8 989.6 1956 1044.4 1072.2 1034.4 971.1 1050.4 1065.7 1073.8 1079.4 1112.9 1957 1067.4 1057.0 1107.0 1071.8 1067.3 1042.2 1140.9 1103.8 1063.6 1958 1062.0 1021.1 1039.2 1039.5 1058.7 1029.3 1050.1 1038.2 1085.9 1959 1163.2 1200.3 1212.4 1211.0 1305.3 1309.6 1256.8 1274.9 1423.2 1231.8 1357.3 1297.6 1342.0 1258.6 1289.6 1269.1 1250.2 1216.4 1960 1961 1149.1 1157.2 1167.7 1135.0 1163.8 1192.9 1355.0 1243.8 1269.1 1337.5 1322.3 1325.9 1351.8 1397.9 1364.8 1336.7 1347.0 1466.7 1962 1963 1106.2 1522.1 1453.2 1415.7 1414.6 1421.4 1457.1 1494.6 1454.4 1444.9 1469.9 1493.8 1543.6 1508.1 1533.9 15R4.1 1558.4 1587.9 1964 OCT 841.7 816.1 1049.9 1071.1 1094.0 1095.9 1181.8 1185.5 1302.3 1342.5 1494.5 1579.3 NOV 869.6 827.6 1059.1 978.9 1074.2 1149.4 1286.6 1169.2 1303.1 1408.7 1435.8 1650.7 DEC 841.2 879.8 970.3 1038.8 1074.8 1149.9 1362.6 1141.5 1310.2 1361.4 1470.0 1655.6 1171.2 216.4 1184.4 1188.0 D12. 1104.8 1153.2 TABLE TOTAL: 1145.0 1147.6 167926.3 1162.3 MEAN: 1169.3 1166.2 AUG 99.1 NOV 98.2 98.3 98.7 99.2 99.5 99.8 100.2 100.5 100.9 101.2 101.7 101.8 SEP 96.5 AVGE JUL 99.6 OCT 97.9 98.5 99.7 101.0 102.1 102.8 103.0 103.4 103.4 103.7 103.6 103.5 1187.2 1176.1 1204.9 STD. DEVIATION: AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS FINAL TREND CYCLE - HENDERSON CURVE I/C RATIO IS 1.92 13-TERM MOVING AVERAGE SELECTED. JUL AUG SEP JUN JAN FEB APR MAY YEAR MAR 913.4 899.7 884.5 922.9 925.7 922.3 916.3 919.9 925.2 1953 851.0 839.8 832.7 1954 862.5 867.2 861.6 867.0 852.6 856.6 956.1 978.5 1003.2 938.1 908.5 926.0 877.9 895.1 917.6 1955 1056.0 1053.8 1050.9 1051.6 1057.6 1066.5 1074.3 1078.2 1076.0 1956 1059.4 1063.6 1070.5 1076.9 1081.2 1083.8 1085.7 1087.5 1087.4 1957 1079.0 1958 1054.4 1046.4 1040.4 1037.1 1036.8 1039.8 1047.6 1060.5 1172.0 1195.1 1218.5 1241.0 1260.8 1275.0 1283.2 1288.2 1294.2 1959 1332.8 1331.3 1324.1 1312.2 1297.0 1280.2 1261.7 1239.7 1215.3 1960 1148.6 1146.4 1149.6 1158.0 1172.3 1192.8 1217.7 1244.6 1270.1 1961 1324.3 1334.7 1345.1 1354.1 1359.0 1359.4 1357.0 1354.4 1353.0 1962 1384.2 1393.3 1403.0 1413.6 1426.3 1440.1 1452.8 1462.7 1467.4 1963 1964 1464.7 1476.0 1492.5 1511.3 1528.8 1543.2 1556.7 1571.0 1588.7 AVGE D13. FINAL YEAR 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 S.D. 1136.9 1142.7 TABLE TOTAL: 1149.0 1155.5 168028.7 1161.6 MEAN: 1166.9 1166.9 1171.4 1175.4 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF IRREGULAR SERIES JUL JUN MAR APR JAN FEB MAY 100.8 99.8 100.1 99.0 99.8 98.4 101.7 97.8 108.9 100.5 100.2 99.8 89.4 103.0 99.8 101.6 100.9 100.5 100.4 93.2 99.2 99.9 99.9 99.3 98.9 101.7 98.4 92.3 105.1 100.8 99.4 98.7 96.2 103.4 99.5 100.2 99.9 99.0 100.7 97.6 102.1 100.2 97.9 103.5 102.7 99.2 100.4 99.5 97.6 100.6 97.0 100.7 102.3 92.4 102.0 98.0 111.3 100.0 101.6 99.3 98.0 100.0 100.9 102.9 98.5 100.4 98.6 99.8 101.0 99.1 100.3 99.2 100.2 98.7 103.6 79.9 109.2 101.8 99.4 98.6 98.7 99.6 102.1 100.1 6.2 2.9 TABLE TOTAL: 3.5 14388 .8 3.4 2.0 MEAN: 3.0 99.9 1179.3 STD. DEVIATION: 3.7 1141.1 1070.7 TABLE TOTAL: 1224.2 1168.1 168263 .3 1174.7 MEAN: 1168.5 1168,5 1158.3 OCT 869.9 833.9 1026.4 1069.1 1083.6 1102.7 1302.4 1191.2 1290.6 1355.9 1466.1 1607.3 NOV 859.0 843.4 1044.0 1062.3 1075.0 1127.4 1314.4 1171.3 1304.4 1363.6 1462.0 1626.0 DEC 853.0 859.1 1053.9 1058.8 1064.4 1150.1 1326.5 1156.5 1314.6 1374.2 1460.5 1641.3 1183.3 211.2 1187.7 1192.7 S.D. 3.1 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.3 1.3 4.4 2.6 3.4 2.9 6.6 1.2 NOV 101.2 98.1 101.5 92.1 99.9 102.0 97.9 99.8 99.9 103.3 98.2 101.5 DEC 98.6 102.4 92.1 98.1 101.0 100.0 102.7 98.7 99.7 99.1 100.7 100.9 1.2 4.9 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.7 OCT 813.4 766.6 1010.9 1121.0 1148.1 1150.4 1324.1 1184.0 1357.6 1442.1 1591.3 1613.0 NOV 849.2 839.7 1064.9 1070.8 1043.2 1085.6 1283.0 1196.7 1335.0 1449.2 1425.0 1671.7 DEC 906.6 942.6 1094.9 1058.6 1142.4 1253.5 1466.9 1174.5 1294.2 1359.4 1528.5 1755.0 1210.2 222.6 1192.8 1248.1 1125.3 TOTAL 10811.7 10227.4 11525.3 12755.1 12918.9 12822.2 15171.2 15113.3 14609.7 16234.5 17232.0 18607.4 X746 OCT 96.8 97.9 102.3 100.2 101.0 99.4 90.7 99.5 100.9 99.0 101.9 98.3 1139.9 X746 P. 13. SERIES SEP 109.7 98.3 98.6 103.4 97.8 100.6 110.0 100.1 99.9 108.4 99.1 99.9 STD. DEVIATION: X746 TOTAL 10869.6 10208.6 11413.4 12593.2 12963.9 12819.1 15187.6 15008.9 14749.2 16363.2 17139.6 18610.2 P.12» SERIES AUG 100.7 101.4 98.7 100.1 101.5 97.9 99.0 100.8 99.9 99.5 102.2 99.2 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS E 1. ORIGINAL SERIES MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES JUL AUG SEP JUN MAR MAY APR JAN FEB YEAR 908.1 839.8 844.0 901.9 933.0 922.4 855.9 1004.2 1013.1 1953 821.8 824.8 780.4 869.2 829.2 832.8 808.8 967.2 957.2 1954 885.3 960.6 947.1 936.8 959.3 871.1 871.2 849.9 1019.3 1955 995.2 1073.3 1051.2 1102.1 1073.5 1094.8 1033.8 1051.6 1055.3 1956 1007.4 986.0 1147.8 1042.7 1114.8 992.9 1132.6 1118.7 1105.8 1957 950.1 1073.4 1095.9 955.9 1C71.7 1056.9 1060.9 1031.1 1049.1 1958 1154.1 1118.6 1295.1 12P.0.9 1264.2 1369.8 1250.0 T187.8 1268.8 1959 1270.3 1329.4 1409.7 1293.8 1289.4 1332.0 1182.7 1258.5 1192.7 1960 1149.7 1067.7 1255.3 1063.0 1222.9 1232.1 1156.5 1252.1 1197.2 1961 1367.6 1213.0 1380.8 1334.0 1453.1 1348.7 1333.6 1356.8 1237.5 1962 1396.7 1268.2 1462.5 1454.2 1458.9 1355.9 1502.1 1459.7 1398.3 1963 1444.5 1336.8 1590.2 1560.6 1455.7 1593.7 1610.7 1491.0 1561.8 1964 AVGE P. 11. SERIES DOLLARS STD. DEVIATION: X746 P. 14. SERIES X746 TOTAL 10791.6 10240.3 11471.3 12781.1 12982.4 12834.5 15203.3 15113.7 14583.3 16275.8 17301.3 18684.7 65 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2. MODIFIED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES JAN FEB YEAR MAR MAY JUN APR AUG SEP JUL 941.1 914.3 904.9 921-3 1953 905.7 933.1 912.6 914.0 884.5 853.9 1954 862.5 848.1 851.8 854.5 893.0 861.6 855.6 818.6 882.2 899.1 916.6 941.1 965.8 1955 855.2 930.5 954.0 989.6 1044.4 1072.2 1034.4 1051.6 1050.4 1065.7 1073.8 1079.4 1112.9 1956 1957 1067.4 1057.0 1107.0 1071.8 1067.3 1042.2 1140.9 1103.8 1063.6 1958 1062.0 1021.1 1039.2 1039.5 1058.7 1029.3 1050.1 1038.2 10A5.9 1959 1163.2 1200.3 1212.4 1211.0 1305.3 1309.6 1256.8 1274.9 1294.2 1332.8 1357.3 1297.6 1342.0 1258.6 1289.6 1269.1 1250.2 1216.4 1960 1149.1 1157.2 1167.7 1135.0 1163.8 1192.9 1217.7 1243.8 1269.1 1961 1337.5 1322.3 1325.9 1351.8 1397.9 1364.8 1336.7 1347.0 1353.0 1962 1384.2 1393.3 1453.2 1415.7 1414.6 1421.4 1457.1 1494.6 1454.4 1963 1444.9 1469.9 1493.8 1543.6 1508.1 1533.9 1584.1 1558.4 1587.9 1964 AVGE 1136.3 1142.4 TABLE TOTAL: 1152.6 1154.3 168093 .4 1162.3 MEAN: 1162.8 1167.3 1175.8 S.D. .7 1.2 TABLE TOTAL: 1.7 14402.2 2.5 2.0 MEAN: 1.5 NOV 869.6 827.6 1059.1 1062.3 1074.2 1149.4 1286.6 1169.2 1303.1 1408.7 1435.8 1650.7 841.2 879.8 1053.9 1038.8 1074.8 1149.9 1362.6 1141.5 1310.2 1361.4 1470.0 1655.6 1177.5 1181.3 213.5 1191.4 1195.0 P-16t SERIES X746 AUG 100.7 101.4 98.7 100.1 101.5 97.9 99.0 100.8 99.9 99.5 102.2 99.2 SEP 100.0 98.3 98.6 103.4 97.8 100.6 100.0 100.1 99.9 100.0 99.1 99.9 OCT 96.8 97.9 102.3 100.2 101.0 99.4 100.0 99.5 100.9 99.0 101.9 98.3 NOV 101.2 98.1 101.5 100.0 99.9 102.0 97.9 99.8 99.9 103.3 98.2 101.5 DEC 98.6 102.4 100.0 98.1 101.0 100.0 102.7 98.7 99.7 99.1 100.7 100.9 S.D. 1.3 1.7 2.3 1.4 2.3 1.3 1.9 1.5 .9 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1176.1 1.7 DOLLARS STD. DEVIATION: 100.0 OCT X746 841.7 816.1 1049.9 1071.1 1094.0 1095.9 1302.4 1185.5 1302.3 1342.5 1494.5 1579.3 STD. DEVIATION: AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF MODIFIED IRREGULAR SERIES JAN FEB MAR APR JUN YEAR MAY JUL 99.8 100.8 99.8 99.0 98.4 101.7 100.1 1953 97.8 1954 100.0 100.2 99.8 103.0 100.0 100.5 100.9 99.8 100.5 101.6 99.2 1955 100.4 93.2 98.4 99.9 1956 98.9 101.7 100.0 99.3 99.9 100.8 103.4 98.7 1957 99.4 96.2 105.1 99.5 99.9 1958 100.7 102.1 99.0 100.2 97.6 100.2 1959 99.5 103.5 99.2 100.4 97.6 97.9 102.7 1960 100.0 98.0 97.0 100.6 102.0 102.3 100.7 101.6 99.3 1961 100.9 98.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.9 98.6 1962 99.1 99.8 100.4 98.5 101.0 103.6 99.2 1963 100.0 100.0 100.2 98.7 100.3 1964 99.4 98.7 98.6 101.8 99.6 100.1 102.1 P.lSi SERIES DEC TOTAL 10784.1 10223.1 11497.0 12757.1 12963.9 12819.1 15179.1 15109.9 14611.8 16249.5 17288.8 18610.2 P. 17. SERIES E 4. YEAR 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 E 5. MONTH-TO-MONTH JAN YEAR ******* 1953 -8.1 1954 -7.6 1955 6.5 1956 5.3 1957 -4.1 1958 -7.9 1959 -20.0 1960 -2.1 1961 5.7 1962 -17.9 1963 1964 -5.5 AVGE AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS CHANGES IN ORIGINAL SERIES JUN AUG MAY JUL APR FEB MAR -7.5 3.4 -2.7 17.3 .9 -11.0 -7.2 .4 -13.4 14.2 -13.2 6.9 10.7 -2.9 8.5 -5.5 19.9 10.1 -2.3 -14.5 -2.4 .4 4.8 10.4 1.7 -5.6 -10.1 -2.1 -9.2 16.4 -1.2 -10.8 -10.9 14.1 -1.2 -9.4 .4 -2.8 -1.4 1.7 -12.8 12.1 -5.0 3.5 -8.7 15.8 8.4 -5.7 -3.1 6.4 -.3 -11.2 3.3 -8.2 6.0 13.2 -2.7 .8 4.5 15.0 17.6 -15.3 -7.1 1.7 8.9 13.8 -1. 1 -3.4 -7.2 -11.3 -2.8 10.8 .3 -7.1 5.6 -.6 24.1 -7.4 -6.7 9.5 1.1 -1.9 19.0 -7.5 -5.1 -2.5 TABLE TOTAL: 12.7 122.0 AUG 1965 U. S. E 6. MONTH-TO-MONTH CHANGES IN FINAL MAR FEB JAN YEAR 1.8 -1.0 1953 ******* -9.8 1.5 .1 1954 1.9 1.9 .3 1955 -3.5 2.7 7.6 1956 4.7 2.7 -1.0 1957 1.8 -3.9 1958 -1.2 1.0 3.2 1.2 1959 -4.4 -9.6 10.2 1960 .9 .7 .7 1961 .3 2.1 -1.1 1962 -4.5 -18.7 37.6 1963 1.6 -1.7 1.7 1964 AVGE 66 X746 RATIOS OF ANNUAL TOTALS* ORIGINAL AND ADJUSTED SERIES UNMODIFIED MODIFIED 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.2 99.7 99.8 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.1 100-1 100.1 100.2 100.1 100.0 99.8 99.8 100.1 100-2 100.0 100.1 100.4 100.4 -1.4 4.3 TABLE TOTAL: -.7 88.3 -4.2 1.4 .3 -.5 -2.2 GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES (DID AUG JUL JUN APR MAY -.9 -.8 -2.2 .2 2.1 -.4 -8.8 -5.0 10.7 15.8 1.2 2.5 10.0 -1.1 -6.7 .5 .8 1.5 8.2 -6.1 -3.3 -2.4 9.5 -.4 -3.2 -1.1 1.8 -2.8 2.0 .0 1.4 7.8 .3 -4.0 -.1 -1.5 -6.2 2.5 -1.6 3.4 -8.2 2.5 2.5 13.6 -2.8 .8 -2.4 -2.1 3.4 2.0 2.6 -.1 .5 2.5 -2.6 -1.6 3.3 -2.3 1.7 3.3 .4 1.6 .7 1.5 -.9 P. 18. SERIES SEP OCT NOV 4.4 9.5 5.3 DEC 6.8 10.2 -5.4 -1.4 -5.7 -3.4 13.0 17.5 -5.2 -4.4 -1.1 -4.2 -12.1 -1.8 4.7 3.3 3.6 7.3 5.0 1.2 4.2 -.6 5.1 SEP 7.1 -3.9 2.5 3.1 -3.6 4.6 11.6 -2.7 2.0 8.9 -2.7 1.9 OCT -13.2 -.3 6.1 -3.8 2.9 •9 -17.0 -2.5 2.6 -8.5 2.8 -.5 NOV 3.3 1.4 .9 -8.6 -1.8 4.9 8.9 -1.4 .1 4.9 -3.9 4.5 DEC -3.3 6.3 -8.4 6.1 .1 .0 5.9 -2.4 .5 -3.4 2.4 5.0 1.1 .7 6.7 12.6 14.0 7.2 -13.9 -12.0 -9.1 -5.6 -.7 6.8 1.1 13.4 -1.7 7.5 13.8 .5 -10.5 12.3 -5.3 7.3 9.5 15.5 14.3 -1.9 -3.1 -6.2 P. 19. 2.4 -2.5 X746 AVGE .2 .8 1.0 .7 1.1 1.1 1.8 -1.5 1.2 .7 1.6 1.4 X746 AVGE -.6 .6 .9 .7 .4 .6 1.7 -1.4 1.3 •4 1.3 1.4 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS F 1. MCD MOVING AVERAGE MCD IS 4 YEAR JAN FEB MAR JUN APR MAY JUL AUG SEP 1 QCTt 1 V-O 925 . 6 907 • 9 920 • 4 925 • 1 927 .0 916.4 1954 854.8 843.1 862.7 866.1 830.2 883.8 835.5 841.6 873.5 894.4 1955 872.2 910.9 888.3 903.0 920.2 989.8 947.8 960.0 1956 1036.5 1030.3 1030.5 1032.0 1030.4 1040.3 1067.3 1083.0 1084.3 1957 1035.5 1067.6 1075.8 1075.8 1072.1 1080.5 1088.6 1087.6 1100.6 1958 1058.0 1049.2 1040.4 1039.6 1041.7 1044.4 1044.1 1050.9 1067.5 1959 1165.7 1181.4 1196.7 1232.2 1259.6 1270.7 1286.6 1316.1 1284.2 1960 1309.6 1312.3 1307.2 1313.9 1297.0 1289.8 1266.9 1256.3 1230.3 1961 1154.3 1153.9 1152.2 1155.9 1164.8 1211.7 1238.9 1265.2 1292.6 1318.3 1324.0 1334.4 1349.5 1360.1 1362.8 1361.6 1378.8 1373.2 1962 1963 1349.6 1360.7 1374.3 1451.4 1426.2 1427.2 1446.9 1456.9 1475.1 1964 1455.2 1469.7 1488.1 1503.9 1519.8 1542.4 1546.1 1566.1 1577.4 AVGE 1146.3 1152.2 TABLE TOTAL: 1137.6 1152.0 164096 .0 1156.0 1166.6 1173.7 1184.4 1184.9 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS F 2. SUMMARY MEASURES AVERAGE PER CENT CHANGE WITHOUT REGARD TO SIGN OVER INDICATED SPAN SPAN IN Bl Dll D13 D12 D10 A2 C18 MONTHS 0 CI I C S P TU* 1 7.46 3.84 3.62 .91 4.21 .00 4.14 2 6.90 4.26 3.49 1.80 4.66 .00 3.71 3 6.32 4.81 3.47 2.64 4.63 .00 2.07 4 8.09 5.25 3.17 3.45 5.10 .00 4.21 5 7.55 5.90 3.35 4.19 3.97 .00 3.23 6 7.71 6.32 3.35 4.90 4.48 .00 2.40 7 8.97 6.81 3.26 5.57 3.99 .00 4.16 9 8.79 7.93 3.33 6.84 4.57 .00 2.00 11 9.86 8.73 3.16 8.01 4.11 .00 2.89 12 9.89 9.47 3.73 8.55 .36 .00 2.71 P.20t SERIES OCT DEC NOV 896 . 8 880 . 6 851.6 851.4 828.5 835.5 1016.1 1017.2 1030.9 1060.6 1050.4 1039.1 1083.9 1076.6 1076.2 1092.3 1120.3 1139.6 1291.6 1313.6 1265.7 1205.3 1178.2 1161.3 1279.6 1296.2 1313.3 1391.2 1394.8 1304.7 1469.8 1463.7 1461.3 1594.0 1618.4 ******* 1184.2 1187.1 X746 TOTAL 9076 • 6 10206.9 11350.8 12584.7 12920.8 12788.0 15064.1 15128.1 14678.5 16253.3 17163.2 16881.0 1135.9 P.21f SERIES El MOD.O 6.73 6.68 6.32 7.70 7.22 7.89 8.65 8.91 10.23 «->.51 Fl MCD 1.30 2.17 3.00 3.82 4.43 5.01 5.53 6.72 7.86 8.36 E2 MOD.CI 2.25 2.80 3.60 4.05 4.77 5.36 6.00 7.22 8.33 9.00 X746 E3 MOD. I 1.96 1.87 1.99 1.64 l.RO 1.73 1.73 1.72 1.55 2.04 RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF COMPONENTS TO VARIANCE IN ORIGINAL SERIES SPAN IN D13 D12 DIG A2 CIS RATIO MONTHS I C S P TD* TOTAL (X100) 1 26.83 1.68 36.28 .00 35.21 100.00 87.71 2 23.89 6.36 42.71 .00 27.04 100.00 106.93 3 26.88 15.62 47.93 .00 9.57 100.00 111.96 4 15.34 18.09 39.59 -00 26.99 100.00 100.26 5 20.43 31.96 28.66 .00 18.94 100.00 96.69 6 18.39 39.34 32.85 .00 9.42 100.00 102.61 7 14.18 41.47 21.23 .00 23.12 100.00 93.03 9 13.40 56.58 25.19 .00 4.83 100.00 107.11 11 10.06 64.54 16.99 .00 8.41 100.00 102.42 12 14.71 77.38 .14 .00 7.77 100.00 96.58 AVERAGE DURATION OF RUN CI 1.79 I 1.51 C 8.41 MCD 2.98 I/C RATIO FOR MONTHS SPAN 1 2 4.00 1.94 3 1.31 4 .92 5 .80 6 .68 MONTHS FOR CYCLICAL DOMINANCE 7 .58 8 .57 9 .49 10 .46 11 .39 12 .44 4 AVERAGE PER CENT CHANGE WITH REGARD TO SIGN AND STANDARD DEVIATION OVER SPAN Bl D13 D12 D10 IN 0 I C S MONTHS AVGE S.D. AVGE S.D. AVGE S.D. AVGE 1 .85 9.03 .17 5.79 .41 1.03 .15 2 1.30 8.75 .18 5.47 .84 2.03 .20 3 1.59 8.06 .15 5.23 1.26 2.99 .17 4 2.09 10.02 .15 5.23 1.69 3.89 .14 5 2.39 9.20 .12 5.05 2.13 4.72 .06 6 2.84 9.61 .15 5.23 2.57 5.49 .10 7 3.38 10.63 .14 5.15 3.02 6.21 .09 9 4.24 10.76 .08 5.24 3.96 7.49 .19 11 5.25 11.39 .08 5.11 4.94 8.55 .19 12 5.62 11.01 .10 5.34 5.44 9.00 .00 INDICATED SPAN Dll CI S.D. AVGE S.D. 5.53 .58 5.93 5.36 li02 5.95 5.42 Ii42 6.15 6.00 1.85 6.69 5.01 2.25 7.04 5.73 2i 72 7.66 5.03 3.16 8.10 5.30 4.03 9.13 5.16 5i01 9.86 5.52 10.31 .47 Fl MCD AVGE .42 .83 1.25 1.69 2.12 2.55 3.00 3.93 4.91 5.44 S.D. 1.64 2.55 3.43 4.30 4.92 5.58 6.20 7.32 8.21 8.58 *(TRAD ING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS WITHOUT LENGTH OF MONTH ADJUSTMENT) 67 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1. CHART (X) - Dll. FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES (0) - D12. FINAL TREND CYCLE (*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS SCALE-SEMI-LOG HALF CYCLE 771. 1157. 1542. JAN57 FEB57 MAR57 APR57 MAY57 JUN57 JUL57 AUG57 SEP57 OCT57 NOV57 DEC57 JAN58 FEB58 MAR58 APR58 MAY58 JUN58 JUL58 AUG58 SEP58 OCT58 NOV58 DEC58 JAN59 FEB59 MAR59 APR59 MAY59 JUN59 JUL59 AUG59 SEP59 OCT59 NOV59 DEC59 JAN60 FEB60 MAR60 APR60 MAY60 JUN60 JUL60 AUG60 SEP60 OCT60 NOV60 DEC60 JAN61 FEB61 MAR61 APR61 MAY61 JUN61 JUL61 AUG61 SEP61 OCT61 NOV61 DEC61 JAN62 FEB62 MAR62 APR62 MAY62 JUN62 JUL62 AUG62 SEP62 OCT62 NOV62 DEC62 JAN63 FEB63 MAR63 APR63 MAY63 JUN63 JUL63 AUG63 SEP63 OCT63 NOV63 DEC63 JAN64 FEB64 MAR64 APR64 MAY64 JUN64 JUL64 AUG64 SEP64 OCT64 NOV64 DEC64 771. 68 P«22» SERIES X746 1928. 2313. 2699. 3084. 1928. 2313. 2699. 3084. OX XO 0 X XO XO X 0 0 0 X XO OX OX XO ox XO 0 X X 0 0 X 0 X X 0 XO 0 0 XO 0 X 0 0 X X 0 0 X X 0 ox ox XO * * ox XO ox XO XO XO XO 0 XO 0 XO 0 X * XO XO ox 0 X * 0 X XO * XO XO ox X 0 ox XO 0 X ox 1542. AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2. CHART (X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS (0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES (+) - DIG- FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS (*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS SCALE-ARITHMETIC 78. 81. 84. 87. 90. 93. 96. 99. JANUARY 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 X 1964 1965 X746 P.25i SERIES X746 0 + + * AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS G 2. CHART (X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS (0) - D 9. FINAL SI RATIOS MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES (+) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS (*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS SCALE-ARITHMETIC 78. 81. 84. 87. 90. 93. 96. 99. MARCH 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 P.23. SERIES 102. 105. 108. 111. +* 0+ X 0 78. 81. 84. 87. 90. 93. 96. 99. AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS G 2. CHART (X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS (0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES ( + ) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS (*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS SCALE-ARITHMETIC 73. 81. 84. 87. 90. 93. 96. MAY 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 102. 105. 108. P.27t 105. X 111. SERIES 108. * 105. 69 AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS G 2. CHART (X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS (0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES (+) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS (*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS SCALE-ARITHMETIC 78. 81. 84. 87. 90. 93. 96. 99. JULY 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 i960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 P.29f SERIES 102. +* + * *+ * +0 * + * + +* + + 81. 84. 87. 90- 93. 96. * 102. 99. AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS' OF DOLLARS G 2. CHART (X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS (0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES (+) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS (*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS SCALE-ARITHMETIC 78. 81. 84. 87. 90. 93. 96. 99. SEPTEMBER 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 78. * P.31i SERIES 102. 84. 87. 90. NOVEMBER 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 70 105. 93. O X X X 96. * X 102. 99. + * + + 0 + * 102. 87. 90. 93. 96. 108. 105. 108. 105. 108. * * + 84. 105. P.33. SERIES +* -l+ *+ * * 81. 108. X + 0 + * + + * + AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS G 2. CHART (X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS (0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES (+) - DIG. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS (*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS SCALE-ARITHMETIC 78. 81. 84. 87. 90. 93. 96. 99. 78. 105. + * +0 * +* +0 * + * + 81. 108. X * 78. 105. 99. O + + + 102. X *' X. REFERENCES The references cited below indicate sources for further reading on time series analysis in general and the work which forms the basis for X-ll in particular. References which deal with the problem of seasonal adjustment as it relates to the analysis of current economic conditions are 9, 14, and 15. Early works on seasonally and seasonal adjustment methods are 1, 6, and 7. Works dealing with the history of Census seasonal adjustment methods are 8, 11, 15, 17, and 18. Alternative methods of adjustment are described in 3, 5, 10, and 12. 1. Barton, H.C., Jr., "Adjustment for Seasonal Variation," Federal Reserve Bulletin, June 1941, pp. 518-28. 2. Bongard, Joseph, "Some Remarks on Moving Averages", Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1960, pp. 361-387. 3. , "L'Elimination des Variations Saisonnieres par la Methode des Modeles Mobiles", 1963. 4. , "Notes on the Characteristics of Seasonal Variation in Europe", Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1960, pp. 179-204. 5. Hannan, E. J., "The Estimation of Seasonal Variations in Economic Time Series", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol 58, No. 301, March 1963, pp. 31-44. 10. Nettheim, Nigel F., "A Spectral Study of 'Overadjustment' for Seasonally" 1964 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical* Association, 1965, republished as Bureau of the Census Working Paper No. 21, 1965. 11. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, 1960. 12. Rosenblatt, Harry M., "Spectral Analysis and Parametric Methods of Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series", 1963 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section; American Statistical Association, 1963, pp. 94-133; republished as Bureau of the Census Working Paper No. 23, 1965. 13. Scheffe', Henry, The Analysis of Variance, 1959. 14. Shiskin, Julius, "Decomposition of Economic Time Series", Science, Vol. 128, No. 3338 (December 19, 1958), pp. 1539-1546. 15. , "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators", Journal of Business, October 1957, republished as NBER Occasional Paper No. 57. 16. , "Seasonal Computations on Univac", American Statistician, Vol. IX, No. 1, February 1955, pp. 19-23. 17. ., Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census, Methods of Seasonal Adjustments, U.S. Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 5, 1961. 18. and Harry Eisenpress, "Seasonal Adjustments by Electronic Computer Methods", Journal of the American Statistical Association, December 1957, pp. 415-449, republished as NBER Technical Paper No. 12. 6. Kuznets, Simon, Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1933. 7. Macaulay, Frederick R., The Smoothing of Time Series, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1931. 8. Marris, Stephen N., "The Treatment of Moving Seasonality in Census Method II," Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1960, pp. 257-309. 19. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The BLS Seasonal Factor Method (1964), 1964. 9. McLaughlin, R. L., Time Series Forecasting, Marketing Research Technique Series No. 6, American Marketing Association, 1962. 20. Young, Allan, Estimating Trading-Day Variation in Monthly Economic Time Series, U.S. Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 12, 1965. 71 Appendixes A through E have been omitted from this issue. (See September issue.) They will be reinstated in the November issue. Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES 2ach month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 17. Price per unit of labor cost index (19 57- 59=100)l 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 106.8 102.6 102.3 114.7 103.9 100.8 97.7 106.0 101.8 102.8 115.1 104.4 100.7 97.7 104.3 102.0 102.9 113.9 103.4 100.9 97.5 105.9 101.2 105.1 112.0 102.7 100.4 98.1 107.1 99.9 105.2 111.2 101.3 100.9 98.9 106.9 100.1 106.6 109.1 101.1 100.3 98.7 106.7 99.7 108.7 105.9 101.7 101.3 98.2 105.0 101.3 112.2 104.6 101.8 100.3 98.6 104.7 101.2 111.3 104.1 101.1 99.9 98.3 104.9 101.8 110.7 104.8 101.2 99.0 97.8 103.7 102.1 108.9 104.4 101.7 97.9 98.7 104.8 102.0 113.5 104.7 100.9 97.6 99.8 1955 1956... 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 101.2 102.5 102.0 97.4 101.0 103.8 99.3 101.1 102.6 102.2 96.0 101.7 102.0 98.8 101.7 101.7 102.5 95.3 102.1 101.5 98.8 102.3 102.2 100.7 94.9 103.2 100.5 100.0 101.7 101.5 100.5 96.2 103.2 99.8 100.0 102.1 100.7 100.5 97.5 102.4 99.4 100.3 101.8 97.3 100.4 98.4 101.4 99.6 100.7 101.7 100.0 101.2 99.0 100.0 99.7 101.5 102.3 100.6 100.3 99.4 100.0 99.4 101.5 103.6 101.1 98.6 100.4 99.7 99.9 101.2 102.9 101.6 .98.6 100.9 99.2 100.1 101.0 103.1 101.6 98.0 100.1 101.1 99.7 101.2 80.0 78.0 78.8 87.7 89.4 92.0 93.1 80.7 77.7 81.0 88.0 88.8 93.1 92.5 80.2 78.1 80.1 87.9 89.3 93.6 91.8 90.3 96.3 100.6 99.7 101.2 101.2 99.3 91.0 96.2 101.0 99.6 101.7 101.2 99.5 91.2 96.4 101.9 100.5 99.6 101.4 99.5 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (19 57- 59-100 )2 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 77.3 81.0 77.8 80.9 88.0 89.3 93.8 77.3 81.0 78.0 81.7 87.9 89.6 93.6 78.9 80.6 77.9 82.5 88.3 89.5 93.8 78.4 80.7 76.8 84.2 88.7 89.9 93.5 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 90.5 91.9 96.5 102.9 99.6 97.3 101.9 90.8 92.2 96.7 104.1 99.2 99.0 102.4 90.0 93.2 96.4 105.0 98.9 99.7 102.4 89.5 93.4 98.0 105.2 97.9 100.7 101.0 77.8 81.0 77.3 84.4 89.7 89.7 92.7 90.1 94.5 98.3 103;9 98.2 101.3 100.7 78.4 80.5 76.6 85.5 89.8 90.3 92.5 78.9 80.1 76.6 87.4 89.0 89.9 92.9 80.2 78.5 75.5 88.0 89.0 90.6 92.5 80.5 78.4 77.3 88.0 89.7 91.1 92.6 90.2 95.2 98.5 102.5 98.7 101.7 100.1 90.5 98.3 98.8 101.6 99.7 101.6 99.8 91.0 96.4 98.3 101.2 101.0 101.5 99.0 91.1 96.2 99.1 100.7 101.0 101.6 99.0 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP (1957-59=100)3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1963, ... 76.2 77.5 76.1 80.9 84.9 88.0 91.8 88.5 93.0 97.2 102.1 100.3 101.7 104.9 ... ... 75.6 77.5 75.8 82.6 85.9 88.5 91.2 88.6 93.9 98.1 101.2 99.5 102.8 103.7 ... ... 77.6 77.5 77.4 83.0 87.7 91.9 89.9 77.7 76.1 76.0 82.6 87.2 89.2 90.3 89.6 95.4 98.9 100.5 101.3 103.8 103.4 ... ... 90.6 96.6 100.4 99.4 101.7 104.6 102.8 ... •'-Ratio of index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods to index of labor cost per unit of output (series 62). Ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages and salaries plus supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing. 3 Ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises, in current dollars, to value of corporate product in constant (1958) dollars. 2 73 INDEX SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES (Page numbers) Charts Tables Appendixes Series number1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 2 3 4 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 29 14 14 13 14 11 14 14 11 30 31 32 37 38 10 14 14 14 12 40 41 42 43 45 46 47. 49 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 50.. 51 52 53 54 55 57 58 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 61 62 64 65 66 67 68 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 56 59 56 59 56 56 59 59 •• 57 60 57 60 57 57 I 60 60 58 58 58 61 61 61 58 61 1 2 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 27 26 26 27 24 27 27 25 8 8 8 8 8 24 27 27 27 25 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 3 •• •• .. 4 •• 5 •• 64 64 64 64 64 64 •• .. .. •• 6 •• 7 65 65 65 65 65 65 8 66 A •• B2 68 •• •• •• 63 •• 66 64 64 65 65 64 64 65 65 66 64 65 66 68 •• •• 64 64 65 65 66 66 •• 64 65 66 •• 68 68 68 68 68 F C2 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 69 69 69 70 69 70 69 •• •• •• 64 65 66 •• 68 64 65 66 -• 68 64 64 65 65 66 66 68 68 64 64 64 65' 65 65 66 68 •• •• •• •• •• -• 66 66 •- 63 68 68 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 65 65 65 66 66 66 •• 68 68 68 64 64 65 65 66 •• 68 72 72 72 72 72 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 70 69 69 69 69 69 70 70 69 69 69 69 70 70 G E2 73 73 72 72 71 71 70 69 69 71 69 69 69 71 69 69 •• D2 72 72 73 73 •• 73 73 73 73 73 73 72 72 •• Page Issue 68 68 68 *66 *66 65 74 Dec. '64 Dec. '64 Dec. '64 Nov. '63 July ' 63 May '64 July '65 68 *66 *66 *66 71 73 64 66 Nov. '64 Aug. '63 Nov. '63 Mar. '64 Aug. '65 Oct. '65 June !64 Apr. !64 64 71 74 *66 *66 *66 65 74 June *64 Aug. '65 Sept. '65 Jan. '64 Dec. »63 Dec. '63 June !64 June ' 65 *66 65 *66 *68 74 Oct. June Mar. June June '63 '64 '64 ' 63 '65 72 68 72 72 *66 *66 70 71 Feb. Dec. Feb. Feb. Mar. Feb. Sept. Aug. '65 '64 '65 '65 '64 '64 '64 '65 71 72 72 72 *66 69 72 66 Aug. Mar. Aug. Aug. Oct. Aug. Aug. Apr. '65 '65 '65 '65 '63 '64 '65 '64 65 73 66 66 70 70 73 June Oct. June June Aug. Aug. Oct. '64 '65 '64 ' 64 '64 '64 '65 Page Issue •• •• ^Appendix G. •'•See "back cover for series titles and sources. 2 Page number shown is for September issue. 75 SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued (Page numbers) Charts Tab les Appendixes SPT*"! (=>Q number1 q / 0 / rt £ P2 F n2 Page 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 22 19 19 19 20 22 22 22 22 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 34 31 31 31 32 33 34 34 34 70 69 69 71 71 70 70 71 71 72 72 72 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 19 19 19 20 22 19 22 22 20 19 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 31 31 31 32 34 31 34 34 32 32 69 69 69 71 70 71 70 70 71 69 72 72 72 110 Ill 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 32 32 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 70 70 71 71 69 69 69 69 69 121 122 123 125 126 127 128 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Dl, 1 mo... 9 mo ... D5 D6, 1 mo. . . 9 mo ... Dll D19, 1 mo.. 9 mo. . D23, 1 mo.. 9 mo. . 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 42 42 43 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 D34 D35 D36 D41, 1 mo.. 6 mo. . D47, 1 mo.. 6 mo. . D48 D54, 1 mo.. 9 mo. . D58, 1 mo.. 6 mo. . D61 39 41 41 40 40 40 40 41 40 40 40 40 41 43 45 45 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 44 44 45 ''•See back cover for series titles and sources. 2 Page number shown is for September issue. 76 46-7 46-7 56 46-9 46-9 55 55 48-9 48-9 50-3 50-3 52-3 52-3 48-51 48-51 52-5 52-5 72 72 G Issue 70 73 73 73 73 69 69 69 74 ATIP1 64 Aug . ' 65 ! Aug . 65 Aug '65 Aug !65 f Sept 64 Sept ! 64 Sept ! 64 July ' 65 70 70 70 66 Sept Sept Sept Oct ! 72 66 68 74 66 Aug June Nov Aug Oct '65 '64 ! 64 '65 '64 72 72 71 71 71 72 72 72 72 Mar Feb July July July July July July July ' 65 ' 65 '64 '64 '64 '64 '64 '64 '64 66 67 67 67 67 68 68 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct '64 '64 '64 '64 *64 '64 '64 72 68 73 72 69 73 72 69 72 73 Mar . Oct May Apr Oct Feb Apr Oct . Apr . Feb ' 65 '64 ' 65 ' 65 '64 ' 65 ' 65 ' 64 ' 65 ' 65 69 70 70 72 70 73 70 68-9 73 70 73 73 69 Page 64 64 64 '64 T Issue ** ** ** ** ** ** ** f Oct !64 Nov '64 Nov '64 Apr. '65 Oct . ' 64 Apr. '65 Oct. '64 Nov '64 Apr . ' 65 Oct . ' 64 Apr . ' 65 Feb ' 65 Nov '64 73 73 73 73 74 74 74 74 74 July July July July July July July July July '64 ' 64 '64 '64 '64 '64 ' 64 '64 '64 TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order* "M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators. 30 NBER L E A D I N G INDICATORS *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Department Of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).--Chi'cagO Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment *2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Departfflent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, ail industries (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M)..—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started(M).-Departmeflt of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).-Deparfment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of "the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q)-National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *38. Index of net business formation (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research. Inc. 15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT I N D I C A T O R S 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Deparfment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).--Department Of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—Department Of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security 46. Index of help-wonted advertising in newspapers (M).-Nationai industrial Conference Board *47, Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. *14 Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over(M).-DUfi and BradStreet, Inc ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. *16, Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 17. Price per unit of iabor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M)»--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor,8ureau of Labor Statistics;and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 18. Prof its (before faxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment *49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).~Dep2rtment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *51* Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York(224 SMSA's) (M),--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System *52* Personal income (M),--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).--Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *54. Sabs of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *55. index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M).— Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M).— Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission *21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm,ofter valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q).— Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment *64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 24. Value of manufacturers* new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 25. Change in manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure 26. Buying policy—production materials,percent reporting commitments60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents: no seasonal adjustment 29. Index of new private Housing units authorized by local building permits (M).--Depart ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 30. Nonogricultural placements, all industries (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in 1958 dollars) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics National Income Division Continued on reverse UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBUC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTSH, t>.c. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS MAIL ^^^ ^ ^ rwffBirarii^^^-Coii. TITUS A«|l^^|il>ftllK»At J ;; Cx J^^l*i&^^fi3^3tlo^s is .Wiiw^^^f^^^fl^f 1*0¥£ra0fs of 4ffpfeatsil: : ;"_/ ^J:il ffftetistics: ;-: '-.;>. sea- ' ,Sttte^J ~~::' tl^-I*^^ * " ' "~ ' *• - - ^--*-« —- -*--'- ': ifett;ud seasonal ad " elil^g®& "- - * '—'>*^-^ irf Aceowts. adfustweal Ixm^V I" -~ "'-^^iS?^!-- *- * " - 2 ui^ar; pe^eys on - ; -iJJ ' " - - -""*" " ; -"-- i . .-BepaftmeM cf Coffifflercfi, 8S, Merdiam&se Bumaw of ' - - 121. OrgonizatfOn for e Cefls mis series -"«- " ' * - , predyction {M),--0cpiil2atfBo or ^Ecos»sic CooperaftoR a ^ of Cotnmecce, ,. ~ «irf«sJri«j pmduc*tea ^:-^»iroW Bttre of ««lirstriii}^siiii^^l)^||tffsete Burrdesfeasfc 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement ioi {Paris} Eeonoefc t^eralldl^^J I.S, business Eectorate ailfifematitjflat ^teesa sf tbe C«ftsas st0efeflS€} Of Seises: season 9i. Free reserves (member bank *iec«s& Teserves nuiws borrowm nors of !te %stem; no _ 94. In^ex ef y fc»i Umted States, iiufex of tot oi vaft^e tll}*-^^ jjl^i^ __ t0f«sitif or deficit, Federal income and -product Off ice tff I8S 47 . T" of Csffl- __,_.^ ___ fer f. SacWog el capitoi appropriations, ma?«jfoct«fI»9f^-^%C»|fi«feferiai Conference Board; are seasonally to sbtainsea- ^ - - - •- - are as _ "" Hist '' Bank 01 Hew ¥orl^ ®£ ara " " " " series tor 5- _;r ' . supply {^ewaiB deposits cn^ currency) and com- ^ j j f e t o ^ f the Census ls (0|,-8oard of f II. ^Vernors of tfte ^«iq*$, *w»«lacformg (tt),-teip^ml c^ iafeor, Bureau of Later S^5t% - . V-~"