Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1965
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
T. €0$ni«v Secretary
THf
A* RossEckler, Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
PREFACE
This report brings tag^tfei m^y of the available
ecpiiojriic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation, However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or $ny other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis, ft is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business Cycle so that "leads"
arid "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
,
About 90 principal series and over 3QQ fcoiriponmts are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series inetoded for the total
and important classes of series may vary froin month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data %re available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies, Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
October 1965
^
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER
Series ESI No. 65-10
CONTENTS
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
BCD Technical Papers
Descriptions and Procedure**
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
iii
iv
iv
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
24
Analytical Measures
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods __
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CONTENTS
CONTINUED
Cyclical Comparisons
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles (See September issue)
CHART 4. Comparisons of Specific Cycles (See September issue)
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough
Dates (See September issue)
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates (See September issue)
TABLE 8. Comparisons From Specific Peak and Trough Levels and Specific
Trough Dates (See September issue)
BCD Technical Paper
Summary of the X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal
Adjustment Program
57
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 (See September issue)
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators (See September issue)
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series (See September issue)
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series (See September issue)
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contrac-
tion and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961 (See September issue)
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
73
Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
75
The cyclical comparisons section and appendixes A to E have been dropped from this
issue in order to present the BCD Technical Paper: Summary of the X-ll Variant of
the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
i?
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. The series on labor cost per unit of output
(series 62 and 68) and price per unit of labor cost
(series 17) have been revised for the period 1948 to
date to reflect recent revisions in the national income
accounts.
2. A paper, "Summary of the X-ll Variant of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program," is
included in this report. The cyclical comparisons
section usually shown monthly in BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS has been omitted from this issue to make
room for this paper. The section will be reinstated
in the November issue.
A full description of X-ll will appear in Census
Technical Paper No. 15, "The X-ll Variant of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program." Copies
of this paper will be available from the U.S. Government Printing Office in about 3 weeks. Information
concerning the purchase of a Fortran deck for X-ll can
be obtained by writing to the Bureau of the Census.
3. Appendix F includes historical data for
series 17, 62, and 68.
The November issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on November 23.
in
i'.i:iii
3CD Technical Papers
To aid users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS, technical papers dealing
with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this
report from time to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available,
free of charge. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1.—Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in
September 1963 issue). A new version (X-ll) is described in No. 7,
below.
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators—The Known and the Unknown by Julius
Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue).
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published
in May 1964 issue).
No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964
issue).
No. 5.—Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue).
No. 6.—The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective by Julius Shiskin
(published in January 1965 issue).
No. 7.—Summary Description of the X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program by Julius Shiskin, Allan H. Young, and
John C. Musgrave (published in October 1965 issue).
Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic
Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, B.C. 20233.
Reports in the BUREAU OF THE CENSUS TECHNICAL PAPER SERIES are also
useful to BCD readers. Two reports .of particular interest are—
Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments,
Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 5, by Julius Shiskin (1961), available
from the Bureau of the Census at $1 per copy;
Estimating Trading-Day Variation in Monthly Economic Time Series, Bureau of
the Census Technical Paper No. 12, by Allan Young (1965), available from
Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.,
20402, at 30 cents per copy.
The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program, Bureau
of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, by Julius Shiskin, Allan H. Young, and
John C. Musgrave (1965), available from Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402.
IV
V
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows :
!>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
^
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
%>*•
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
METHOD OF FRE^UTATJON
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
^
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
l^r-
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5). —
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
•business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
^
Cyclical Patterns (charts 3, 4; tables 6 to 8). —
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
OF
CYCLE
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
A!.
STATISTICAL
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 15-term Spencer curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
AMAIYICAL MEASUftcS
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In, short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month' indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Direction-of-Change Table
The direction-of-change table (table 5) shows directions of change ("-f" for rising, "o" for unchanged,
and "—" for falling) in the components used for the
diffusion indexes. This table provides a convenient
view of changing business conditions and is helpful
in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went
up, which went down, and how long such movements
have persisted. The table also helps to show how
a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the
economy to another.
Directions of change for most diffusion index components are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either
6- or 9-month spans.
OF CYCLICAL
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the indicator series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference trough
dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and
by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or
falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of
the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the
level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of months
from the trough of the expansion) are compared with
the level at the trough. The same situation exists here
as for the comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier
expansions that were shorter than the current one,
the comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
from reference peak dates. These comparisons will
be made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same for
all series), comparisons are made on the basis of
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
For example, the specific peak for the index of industrial production is January 1960 (corresponding
to the May 1960 reference peak); the specific peak
for stock prices is July 1959. (See appendix B.)
Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 8. For
earlier expansions, these comparisons differ from those
shown for reference cycles in that they show only the
period up to the next specific peak date and do not
include any part of the contraction that followed. In
many cases, therefore, the earlier comparisons cover
fewer months than those for the current expansion.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related
series for cycles prior to the period covered by the
series used currently. The principal substitutions of
this type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
CHARTS
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical
time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(charts 3 and 4)
These charts compare the performance of selected indicators during the current expansion with their performance during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is
disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the
strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions,
the reference trough (see chart 3) and specific trough
(see chart 4). Thus, these comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to
cyclical movements during the expansions of previous
cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart
3 compares the pattern of the current reference cycle
(the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phases of previous reference cycles. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle (the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases of
previous specific cycles in that series. In both1 charts, the
trough dates are alined. In chart 3, the levels of the
preceding peaks are also alined while in chart 4, the
levels of the troughs are alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Broken Fine indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
60
50
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
40 2
-S2
<^
30 -
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
100
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
50
0
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
f\
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted ll/2, 2, or
2V2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
f^
BAS|C DATA
OCTOBER J965
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4 Temporary layoff all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus ......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg 6
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14 Liabilities of business failures
15 Large business failures
16 Corporate profits after taxes6.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg
18 Profits per dol of sales mfg
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries6.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries6'7
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories7
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer *
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial materials prices*.
Unit of
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space ..
Bil. dol
do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59-100..
do
Number
Mil. dol
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59-100..
Cents
Percent
1941-43-10 . . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
June
1965
Aug.
1965
July
1965
41.0
4.5
549
1.4
140
40.9
r4.1
541
rl.7
121
1953 to Sept. '64 Sept. '64
to date to date
1963
(without3 (without
(with 5
sign)
sign)
signf
Sept.
1965
40.9
P4.0
530
pl.5
110
P40.9
(NA)
528
(NA)
84
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.4
17.8
0.4
4.8
2.5
9.7
20.7
+0.1
+0.6
+0.2
-0.6
+0.2
Current percent change2
June
to
July
1965
July
to
Aug.
1965
Aug.
to
Sept.
1965
0.0
0.0
-0.2
(NA)
-8.9
-2.4
-2.0
-1.5
-0.4
(NA)
-21.4 +11.8
+13.6
+9.1 +23.6
224
231
248
218
5.3
4.1
+0.8
-3.1
-7.4
+12.1
21.31
4.09
22.20
4.35
r21.46
z-4.16
p21.75
P4.10
3.8
4.5
2.6
2.6
+0.8
+0.9
+4.2
+6.4
-3.3
-4.4
+1.4
-1.4
55.28
4.81
55.90
5.16
49.60
P4.90
(NA)
9.7
4.9
11.4
9.3
3.5
12.3
+0.2
+0.8
+5.9
+1.1
+7.3
-11.3
-5.0
(NA)
1,539
110.6
105.4
16,671
135.66
rl,447
109.7
105.3
16,369
120.64
rl,404
r!07.4
104.2
16,957
128.98
pi, 407
p!02.2
(NA)
(NA)
108.56
7.3
3.8
1.0
2.7
16.9
3.7
3.5
0.9
2.1
24.8
0.0
-0.5
-0.1
+0.2
-3.9
-6.0
-0.8
-0.1
-1.8
+11.1
-3.0
-2.1
-1.0
+3.6
-6.9
+0.2
-4.8
(NA)
(NA)
+15.8
47
39
45
43
13.1
11.4
-1.4
+17.0
-15.4
+4.4
rl03'. 3
r!04.0
(NA)
r!03.4
(NA)
p!02.1
r5.7
rO.6
6.8
6.0
0.6
7.0
+6.0
+0.1
+1.4
+0.7
(NA)
-0.6
(NA)
r4.4
4.2
+3.7
2.6
1.7
+0.6
-0.2
+1.9
r2.3
1.9
+0.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
85.04
84.91
86.49
89.38
+6.1
do
+6.1
do
(NA)
(NA)
-1.3
(NA)
+3.3
-0.6
IH-11.6
p+7.7
(NA)
3.5
5.6
-0.3
+5.5
-3.9
(NA)
-0.5
r+0.7
P+1.5
(NA)
1.5
1.7
-0.1
+1.2
+0.8
(NA)
58
57
60
58
6.8
3.7
-0.2
-1.7
+5.3
-3.3
do
62
62
63
61
5.8
2.4
0.0
0.0
+1.6
-3.2
do
66
62
64
62
7.7
4.9
-1.3
-6.1
+3.2
-3.1
+0.58
115.3
r+0.38
114.6
r+0.27
115.2
p+0.76
114.8
0.49
1.3
0.33
1.3
0.00
+0.5
-0.20
-0.6
-0.11
+0.5
+0.49
-0.3
do
Percent
do
60,382
67,459
4.7
2.4
r60,602
68,092
4.5
2.3
r60,680 p60,806
67,821
67,777
4.5
4.4
2.6
2.2
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.6
0.4
0.4
3.6
6.4
+0.3
+0.3
+1.1
+1.6
+0.4
+0.9
+4.3
+4.2
do
2.9
3.0
2.9
4.8
2.8
+1.3
-3.4
0.0
+3.3
1957-59-100 . .
146
152
pl60
145
do
144.2
142.7
p!42.8
r!44.3
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
p609.1
6
do
49 GNP in current
dollars
p676.9
6
do
57 Final sales
p670.8
do
51 Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
3,019.4 3,021.0 3,018.8 33,022.6
do
52 Personal income
528.8
r532.0
530.5
P545.3
do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
P143.6
141.5
142.5
r!43.3
54 Sal es of retail stores
Mil. dol
23,331 r23,743 r23,653 p23,344
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59-100..
in?.6 rlOP.8 rflOP.Q
102.6
3.1
1.1
2.7
1.0
+2.0
+0.5
-0.7
+1.1
+4.8
+0.1
+5.3
-1.0
rl.2
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.6
1.5
+1.1
+1.6
+1.5
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
1.6
0.7
0.8
1.7
+0.8
+0.7
+0.6
+0.4
+0.1
+0.3
+0.7
+1.8
-0.1
+0.3
+0.6
-0.4
+0.1
+2.5
+0.2
-1.3
n ?
n i
+n i
n n
j_n o
o.n i
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagricultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
46. Help- wanted advertising
47. Industrial production 6
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
Percent
Bil. dol
1957-59=100..
Thous
3.0
+0.1
+0.2
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
+2.2
-13.0 +15.4
+1.3
+1.7
+1.8
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER J965
TABLE
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Aug.
1965
Sept.
1965
r98.8
a51.15
r99.8
plOl.O
64! 6
r65.4
(NA)
p65.8
22.3
62,256
22.5
62,922
p22.5
63,531
June
1965
July
1965
r9S>!6
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. dol
Unitof
measure
1953 to Sept. '64 Sept '64
to date
to date
1963
(with
(without (without
sign) 4
sign)3
sign)5
Current percent change 2
June
to
July
1965
July
to
Aug.
1965
Aug.
to
Sept.
1965
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment6
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP6
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*8
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59-100 ..
Percent
4.99
3.2
0.6
2.9
0.7
+2.9
+0.1
-6! 8
+1.6
+1.0
+1.2
(NA)
rO.8
0.5
1.0
0.7
+0.4
+0.7
+1.2
(NA)
+0.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.8
0.8
0.6
1.0
+0.4
+1.0
+0.9
+1.1
0.0
+1.0
(NA)
(NA)
5.00
2.3
0.4
+0.1
•
+0.2
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83 Federal cash receipts from public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95. Balance, Federal income and product
account 6 ' 7
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
91 Defense Dept obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U S
99. New orders, defense products
93. Free reserves*7
85 Change in money supply
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.....
do
do
133.0
119.4
-13.6
r!20.2
r!22.1
+1.9
r!29.5
r!21.9
-7.6
137.7
121.4
-16.3
3.7
4.1
4.4
5.1
5.0
11.4
+1.5
+1.0
-1.0
Mil. dol
rl,HO
954
(NA)
1,893
(NA)
r2.4
26.9
2.1
49.3
+2.1
+19.9
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
r4,520
2,438
2.58
r-184
4,258
2,699
r2.62
-175
5,223
2,770
r2.80
r-136
(NA)
(NA)
p3.15
P-154
15.1
26.2
23.0
104
12.3
17.4
13.7
65
+13.44
+5.16
+1.44 p+11.76
3.06
6.80
+0.28
-8.28
+12.60
+9.72
2.51
3.03
+0.23
-2.88 +1.08
+8.7
+2.7
(NA)
(NA)
do
98. Change in money supply and time
deposits 7
110 Total private borrowing 6
Ill
112
113.
114
115
116
117
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Corporate gross savings 6
7
Change business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
Change, consumer installment debt 7 . . .
Treasury bill rate*
Percent
do
Treasury bond yields *
do
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance
89 U S balance of payments 6'7
81.
94.
96.
97
Consumer prices
Construction contracts, value ... .
Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
Backlog of capital appro., mfg 8
do
Mil. dol
do
do
do
1957-59=100 . .
do
Bil. dol
do
+10.80
pf!2.24
(NA)
(NA)
+11.38
+7.22
3.81
4.14
4.57
3.24
5.44
2,184-. 8
1,834.8
+350.0
110.2
139
57.45
p!7.06
+10.00
+7.99
3.83
4.15
4.57
3.27
11.6
4.3
8.7
3.6
+5.53
+7.31
3.84
4.19
4.66
3.24
p+4.00
(NA)
3.91
4.25
4.71
3.35
1.22
0.85
7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6
3.00
1.08
1.6
0.4
0.6
1.6
5.45
5.44
2,262.8 2,345.7
1,669.8 1,725.4
+593.0 +620.3
(NA)
5.46
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.6
4.6
3.6
59.0
267
0.1
18.1
9.7
270.0
796
(NA)
(NA)
P58.87
(NA)
0.2
7.0
1.5
6.6
0.2
5.5
1.0
5.5
110.0
149
r57.83
110.0
139
r58.10
-9.6
+2.3
+15.5
+7.7
-0.2
-9.5
+6.3
-0.4
-8.7
(NA)
-16 [3 +98.4
(NA)
-5.8 +22.7
+2.6
(NA)
(NA)
+2.6
+4.4 +10.7
+1.6
+6.9 +12.5
+5.4
-18
-20
+39
+9
-3.72 HO. 32
+1.44
-0.02 -1.38 -4.47 -1.53
+0.10 +0.77 -0.68
(NA)
+1.8
+0.3
+0.9 +0.5
+0.2 +0.2 +1.0
+1.4
0.0 +2.0 +1.1
+0.4
-0.9
+0.3 +0.9
+3.4
0.0
0.0 +0.2
+4.4 +3.6 +3.7
+2.0 -9.0
+3.3
-6.2 f-243.0 +27.3
+281
(NA)
+0.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA).
+0.1
+0.7
+1.0
+5.5
(NA)
(NA)
+1.3
(NA)
-0.2
+7.2
+0.7
0.0
-6.7
+0.5
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in
table 2.
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 2, 4, 5, 14,15,40,43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See
footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
4
Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign.
Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
7
Since basic data for ttos series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of
measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
^Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Sensitive employment and unemployment
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
42
. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours
41
40
39
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
6
5
4
3
30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous.)
700
600
500
400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employeesinverted scale)
3
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term)
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.-inverted scale)
200
300
400
500
^
3
"I
<0
bed
CHART
OCTOBER 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
New investment commitments
30
25
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dot.)
20
2
15
§
10
5
4
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (bil. dol.)
co
-j
2
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq.ft. of
floor area. MCD moving avg.-6 term
70
60
50
2
40
§
30
7
6
5
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
2
3
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil.
7
6
5
dol.)
•'.
CO
4
-^
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann.rate, millions.
2.0
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
00
1.5
•£
V V
1.0
29. New bldg. permits, private housing units
{index: 1957-59=100)
160
140 „
120 ~
100 1
80
11
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
38.
Index of net business formation (1957-59=100)
13. New busj. incorporations (thous.)
14. tiab. of jbus. failures (mil. dol
i nyerted. !scpi le,_. MCD _ m oying.
15. Large buis. failures (no. per wk.4
inverted scale. MCD moving avg.j-6 term)
;W
See "How to Rgad Charts 1 and 2." pap 8
bed
OCrOBEK 7965
CHART
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Profits and stock prices
16. Corporate profits after ttfxes, 0 (ann. rafe, bit.dqt.)
•
50 -i
45 J
40 I
D
4
' r
35
30
25
X
-^
|
20
\
15
no
1.7. Ratio, 4iri<k to unit labor cost, m|g. (index: 1957-59=100)
:
105 a?
•~j
100 I
95
J& Profits -petf dollar of sales, m%, 0 (certh)
14
12
v
?
10
-
CO
22.Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries, Q (percent)
16
14
12
10
<
110
I80P ;
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks,
70
60
50
(index: 1941-43=10)
^
2
.s?
- 40
- 30
J
20
13
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
14
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil.
dol.
MCD moving avg.-4 term
20. Change in book value, rrffrs.' inventories of
materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-5 term)
/'
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.
MCD moving avg.-4 term)
(bil. dol.
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
S-a "How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pa-?' -<•
bed
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
65
Employment and unemployment
60
|
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions)
55
75
70
42. Total nonagri. employment (millions)
65
«
£?
60
55
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
3
4
5
6
7
8
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent-inverted scale)
1
2
3
4
5
6
45. Avg. weekly Insured unemployment rate, State
(percent-inverted scale)
2
3
4
7
46. Help-wanted advertising (index; 1957-§9=100)
180
160
140
120
100
^ 60
15
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER
7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate
bil, dojJ!
L
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. Irate, bil. dol.)
57. Final sales, Q (ann. rate, bil. doll.)
250 -J
1949
1958
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
1951
1952
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
1962 1963 1964 19G5 196«
See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6
bed
CHART
OCTOBER 7965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
5V. Bonk debits,fall-SMSA's exccjpt-New York (arm, rote, f*iLdol4
52. Personal income
(ann,rjte, bil. doll
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
(ann. rape, bit. do!.)
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. doi.)
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod1, and foods (index: 1957-59=100)
1954 1955
1958 1959 196B 1961
See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," pap 6
17
CHART
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
60
50
Investment expenditures
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
Cost per unit of output
68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
40
2
30
1
20
110
105
100
95
90
85
„
-^
"§
"
110
105 3
100 ^
95
£»
90
70
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)
60
50
„
"I
40
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil.
dol.)
25
<?
20
^
S»
—J
15
70
60
66. Consumer installment debt (bil.
dol.)
50
.,
•£
40
§
30
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)
_ - __ -- i —
Interest rates
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
•*y*»
bed
CHART
OCTOBER 7965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
140
Federal budget and military commitments
82. Fed. cash payments to public ('aim. rate, bil. do.l.
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
120
140
120
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (ann. rate, bil. dol
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
100 2
80
*
60
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (ann. rate, bil. dol
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
+10
0
-10
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and
product qcct. x Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.
+10
0
-10
90. Defense DepiobJig., procurement (bil. dol
MCD moving, ava,.-6 term)
~ - - j»
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
\
91. Defense ~Dept. oblig,, total (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
•i
3 . . •?
3
—|
2 i
99. New order^dftfense pxoiiucts (bil. dol.
MCD moving ?vg.-6 term)
S.1: Her.' to »eaj Cl^fo 1 a^d 2 ' i'2u »;
1
--
19
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Reserves, money supply, and financing
+1.0
dol.)
+0.5
0
-0.5
+ 12
85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent.
MCD moving avg. -6
term)
+6
0
-6
+12
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent.'MCD moving ayg. —6 term)
+6
0
80
7°
60
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
50
40
60
50
40
HI. Corporate gross savings, Q {ann. rate, btl. dol.)
30
- + 12
-+9
112. Change in business loans (ann.
rate, bil.
.+6
dot.
MCD moving avg.-5 term)
.+3
.
0 .
+9
113. Change in consumer installment debt
(ann.
rate, bil.
+6
+3
0
-3
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Interest rates
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
3 i
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
2
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
5
4
3
117. Municipal bond yields! (percent)
...>..,,
1
-J
4
118. Mortgage yields (percent)
t- 5
J 4
21
CHART
BA$IC
DATA
OCTOBER
7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Foreign trade
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil.
87. General imports (bil.
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
dol.)
^
-^
•§
"
2.0
1.8
1.6
dol.)
1.4 ^
1.2 |
1.0
88. Merchandise trade balance (bil.
0.8
dol.)
+1.0
+ 0.5
89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil,
0
+1
dol.)
-1
115
110 -i
105 $
100 "»
81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100.
MCD moving avg.-5 term)
>
A,
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, m(g., Q (bil.
'r *
i > > t
' ' '•
'
" " < - t . " ,'
it1'' '- >v.- u
dol.)
160
140
120
100
70
60
50
40
18
16
14
12
10
^
^
•§
*
bed
CHART
OCTOBER 7965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
150
industrial production indexes
.s,
130 |
47. United States (index: 1957-59=100)
110
150 -^
CS|
130
123. Canada (index: 1957-59=100)
t
110 - *
140 ^
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59=100)
120 ^
121, OECO European countries (index: 1957-59=100)
100
*
150
cv,
130 i
110
8
160
CS!
140 ^
125. West Germany (index: 1957-59=100)
120
8
280
260
240
220
200 2
180 |
160 **
140
120
160
140
126. France (index: 1957-59=100)
2
120 |j
100
180
160
140
120 ^
100 *
60
> •fffi'tflrri&t
t7\*,'- * if.%Xr -3>iW? ^^^ %| ^ |,|%|
m
py^LrF/,/?^/
23
TABLE
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
40.1
40.4
40.5
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
4.3
3. Layoff rate,
30. Nonagricultural placements, manufacturing
all industries
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries1
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs 2
6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
557
557
569
569
5U586
1.8
135
301
1.9
561
2.0
557
553
551
557
565
543
2 1
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.9
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
295
287
283
301
304
303
305
300
304
299
310
17 70
17.70
17 15
17.02
17 22
16 65
16 91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16 73
17.33
3 15
3 30
2 97
3.31
3 10
3 02
3 07
2 94
2.98
3.05
3 16
3 07
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3 25
3.21
3 22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
19 74
3 62
3 /i
40.6
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.4
40.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
40.5
40.3
40.4
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.5
40.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.7
4.0
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301
40.2
40 7
40.6
40.7
40.6
40.6
40.6
40 8
40.5
40.5
40.9
41.2
3.8
534
532
522
519
526
520
523
502
516
519
549
518
- 1 7
18
18
17
17
16
2 0
"1 /
15
17
15
16
116
125
98
122
111
121
118
91
121
92
8Q
109
284
270
277
265
262
257
260
?//
2/5
520
548
527
531
•529
549
541
530
528
14
13
[H]! 3
15
1 /
14
OH) 79
4 0
4 0
3 9
3.8
4
4
4
3
4
4
4
1
0
0
8
0
1
1
17
1.8
2 0
P/Q
262
251
1Q
SO
19
20
19
20
26
46
94
02
pi
1q
19
19
1q
3
3
3
3
3
q
Z.6
61
Q3
Q?
77
77
pc;
Q/
Ql
62
/ c.
3 88
20 72
3 Q?
3 69
3 7Q
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41.4
41.3
JHI41.4
40.9
41.1
41.0
40.9
40.9
P40.9
4 0
4.1
4 3
3.9
4 0
jjT|4 5
r4.1
p4 0
(NA)
rl 7
nl
P-L . J*>
CNA!
124
110
117
102
140
121
110
$/
2/3
248
p^7
237
??/
224
231
248
OH 218
21 27
3 Q6
21 13
21 71
22 04
3 80
PO qq
21 31
fiHJ22 20
r21 46
nPl
7S
/ 09
4 08
/ r\7
/ OQ
fTJj/ IK.
T!
1 A
n/
in
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by ED; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by {H}. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Bil. dol.)
3B 70
42 75
45 90
42 72
44.64
41.16
40 56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41 . 89
3 71
4/ . 61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43 88
50.81
43.73
45 43
3 84
3.98
11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations *
(Bil. dol.)
3.03
3 71
3 96
3.76
3.66
2.53
3 72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
3.82
2.81
3.35
2.80
3 75
3.98
4.28
3.30
3.72
4 08
4 17
4.32
38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
1 470
1 296
1 422
1 494
1 5"i 5
1,365
1 409
1 531
1,300
1 410
1 634
1 521
103 8
109 1
97 2
104 o
98
97
97
97
97
98
1 285
111 8
108.2
112 9
113 6
120 0
1 1Q 3
116 5
113 5
121 0
123 6
119 9
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
1
1
1
1
/38
/£A
A^9
676
i ^^n
3 96
3 94
3.91
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
1
tfj I
1
^,99
1
A7A
n 7nA
4 10
4 56
1 ^Q9
-| C99
1, 9<c<c
111 9
103 8
106 1
108 7
107 1
109.1
107 2
113.0
112.0
1 23 7
97.8
1
8
8
6
7
4
98.5
98 5
98.0
98.3
15 599
15,758
15 670
15 372
15,245
14,947
15 171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
9
2
5
2
6
0
7
7
4
7
4
8
14 924
15,3Q0
15 563
15 305
15 682
1 £> ^A
15 431
16 093
15 689
16 275
15 759
i n^ i
i A 9^n
iA m &
98
100
100
99
99
100
100
101
101
101
101
101
1 £>
#A7
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(Mil. dol.)
101 53
86 03
77 40
107 15
89.80
93 15
107 98
121 85
106.02
129 87
96.62
99.61
146
93
94
88
115
91
144
JE152
Q/
99
255
87
46
05
12
15
05
07
50
86
6?
92
72
17
1964
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
51 07
51 05
48 41
53.48
46.22
47 82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
/ 3$
I i/
4.36
4.63
4.52
4.53
4-51
4.56
4.92
4.94
/
79
/
A*7
*>/ o/
/
c>/
/Q An
(MA \
4 81
4 64
ZQ -i 9
^ QD
?Q
/ n
53 20
lTil6/ 9A
56 13
*>*> 98
/
4« 04
/ 70
no
4.
c. no
5.00
4.52
Qn
/ T\T ft ^
VINA;
-1
/ rjr
1
/ 09
1,4/2
1 / dn
1 / &D
l,4oU
c^c
•«-]
/
QQ
4.77
...
nn -n^i 3 /
rrTi/r -i /^
P4« 7U
-)
/QA
1,470
i
£.0,7
I, 27^
1,4^
1 /QC,
/ 3i
-p./
•(131,753
1,706
1, 571
i c,nA
/TVTA
\
iJMAj
I / 1 "7
y Art
1,400
/ Ac,
I,4t>9
09
1, r9J2
1
cn-|
OQ
1, C2jy
_,-]
/ / r-j
ri,44/
_,-i y n /
rl,4U4
pi , 407
1 1A #
nrn 9/ A
m
o
113
112
11 5
111
113
109
109
110
105
6
9
1
5
4
7
1
8
4
112.9
108.0
112. 0
104.7
109.4
110.6
109.7
r!07 . 4
p!02.2
1 H9 8
"] no n
104
104
103
102
102
4
7
2
5
9
105 o
107 0
106 4
106 6
[HJ107.3
106.6
105 .0
103.6
104.3
105.4
105.3
104.2
/•vr A \
(NA)
QI AQ
1
1 Q.9Q
ny
tci
1 c; QQ9
-| -i n
16 180
1 S 917
107 10
Q7 Q?
1 ^ Q~l Q
1 ^A 1Q
195 1 /
1 *> Q7Q
16
16
16
17
17
074
605
493
103
154
17,275
El7,367
17,112
16,504
16,043
-. s
Sr~i-\
16,671
i / o/ln
16,369
16,957
/ •, T . N
(NA)
£.0
90 99
11 3 SQ
97 98
111 00
126 49
84.54
107. 57
146 . 29
79.51
"1 QQ
O.Q
1J9 .UV
-I 0£-
//
1J5.DD
-i 9f~\ / /
±fi(J .O4
-i 9rt Q rt
1 pvrj
r/
lUo. 90
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by ®; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•""Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.)
TABLE
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER J965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
15. Number of
business failures
with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
(Number per
week)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
37
[S)32
36
38
38
41
38
£-5
40
46
42
37
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
35
40
42
33
47
47
39
45
43
16. Corporate
profits after taxes
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
30 7
30.9
31.5
31.8
31.2
32.6
32.8
33.8
36.7
37.0
37.5
37.8
44.0
1344.4
(NA)
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
(1957-59-100)
Revisedl
100 9
101.0
101.2
100.1
100.1
99.7
100.2
100.0
100.7
100.2
100.4
99.9
(Cents)
(Percent)
99 7
100.1
100.5
100.8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100.9
101.0
101.5
100.8
100.8
101.6
101.9
101.3
101.9
101.7
100.8
101.2
101.6
100.8
100.6
101.8
102.6
102 5
102.2
102 8
102.5
102 8
103 3
133104 o
103 4
p!02 1
8.4
11.3
8.1
11.1
8.1
11.2
8.1
11.1
8.1
10 8
8.5
11.2
8.6
11.2
8.8
11.3
9.0
11.9
8.9
11.7
9.0
11.7
8.7
11.7
1709 8
Q 1
(NA)
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
stocks*
after valuation adjustment, all industries
(1941-43-10)
69 07
70 22
70 29
68.05
62.99
55 63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72 85
73.03
72.62
74.17
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96
iH]13 1
13 0
(NA)
86
86
86
87
89
#^
#y
12
75
83
97
28
o/
QI
£A
/Q
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+6 7
+6.1
+5.2
+6.4
+4 5
+4.7
+5.8
+8.1
+3.3
+4.1
+3.8
+7.5
'E+8.7
+6 7
+6 1
rnl#Q oa
2
q-i £o
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
indi-by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" inHi
cates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3
Average for October 15, 18, and 19.
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies l
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
January
February
March
April
Mav
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
57
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0.62
-0.3
+1.8
-0 2
+0.5
-1.7
60
59
58
54
51
47
44
45
43
46
50
49
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.1
+2 5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5 1
+6.0
+1 8
+5.6
+7 1
+9.6
+7 2
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0 7
-0 5
+1.7
-0.4
+1 7
-0.2
-0 7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
49
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0 58
-0 54
-0 05
+0.38
+0 10
-0 09
0 40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93 9
94 2
94 2
94.1
96 3
97 3
97 7
+5 1
-1 9
0 5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
42
50
53
98 5
+0 57
+0 16
+1 04
+0.38
+0 81
[3+1 26
+0 06
+0 77
+1 00'
+0 27
+0 55
Q# 5
Q# Q
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
5/
60
60
63
55
59
65
0374
72
70
66
+o 40
6Z
+1 0
+0 4
An
AT
A^
A^
+6:0
+ 5.7
+6.0
+2 6
+7.1
+ 5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+ 5.6
+5 5
+1.2
+5.1
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
+2 3
March
+1 7
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
FJ3+U.6
,.
+11 2
+5 0
+13 8
+8 7
+9 4
+6.1
r+11 6
p+7 7
(NA)
-LO
C.
+c> ?
-4-1
*>
0 5
r+0 7
£/
^7
fiTiA#
i~HlAl
A7
An
^£
At;
to
Ao
A9
A^
Oj)
AT
^7
rvl-1 ^
P+-L. J
An
(MfiS
ctf
Art
_u.n
I"7Q
_i_n &T
AA
179
r~ir\
AA
A9
A
y
04
Ao
"39
i r\
i i
i r\
c&
+U.44
_i_n &/
_i_n pO
c.r\
+u.
T'-i-n ^^
-ru_n
r+u .0*7
2(
•n-Ln ^A
102 4
100.9
101 4
102 5
105 7
108 2
112 0
113 2
112 5
inn A
inn
110. /*7
11 q o
llj). £
~\ n A "7
l"H]ll6.9
1 -i c q
lip..?
m£
lie o
lit). 2
-i -) / rt
114. o
2 -i -t i
114.4
i
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by (Hi. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
[H] = December 1961.
3
Average for October 14, 15, and 18.
27
TABLE
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, totall
ment, labor force
survey1
(Thous.)
54,695
55 003
55,162
55,411
55,502
55,565
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874
55,881
61 ,948
62 162
62,234
62,167
62,565
62,693
62,623
63,015
63,147
63,070
62,921
63,336
55,900
56,044
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291
63,133
63,230
63,487
63,708
63,613
63,825
64,055
64,089
64,253
64,205
64,371
64,449
57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,10^
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,382
58,878
59,206
59,334
59,676
59,992
59,913
60,110
60,382
r60,602
r60,680
[Hjp60,806
(Percent)
40. Unemployment 45. Average
46. Index of helprate, married
wanted advertising
weekly insured
1
unemployment rate, in newspapers
males
2
State programs
47. Index of industrial production
(Percent)
(1957-59-100)
(Percent)
(1957-59=100)
1 1/
115 0
116 4
3 7
3 3
3 6
3.7
3 5
3.7
3 6
3 7
3.5
3 5
3 5
3.5
L L
11^
117 ^
3.9
3 8
4 0
4 2
4 4
4 4
4 5
4 6
4 7
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
e!07
118 0
118 2
118 1
119 0
119 0
119 7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3 7
3.7
3 5
3 4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
4 8
4 6
4 4
4 2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
e!07
e!09
e!08
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119 8
120 6
1 ?1 Q
122 7
124.4
125 6
125.6
125 4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127 0
64,685
65,051
65,175
65,695
65,790
65,519
65,632
65,641
65,650
65,658
66,084
66,463
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.4
2.6
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3 6
3.6
3 5
3.4
3.4
3 4
3 6
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
134
137
127 9
128 4
129 3
130 8
131.8
132 0
133.3
134.0
134.0
131.6
135.4
138.1
66,771
66,709
66,890
66,874
66,979
67,459
[H]68,092
67,821
67 , 777
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.7
2 7
2.6
2.5
2 5
2.5
2.4
2 3
2.6
©2 2
3 4
3 3
3.1
3 1
2.9
2.9
3 0
3 0
137
145
148
143
1/5
146
-i / c
138 6
5 8
5 5
5 5
5.6
5 5
5.5
5 5
5 7
5.6
5 4
5 8
5.5
5.7
5.9
5 7
4 5
4 5
034 4
4 7
/ *>
fin? Q
"I"! 5
1 ^9
rrj-.-pil (~r\
11Q 1
119 8
119 4
1 ^Q ?
140 7
i /o Q
141 6
142 7
i// ?
Fwlrl// 3
•nl / 9 #
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by (E; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benckmark for computing this series.
Prior, to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
28
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER J965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
50. Gross
national product
in 1958 dollars
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits,
(series 49 minus allSMSA's except New York
series 21)
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
519.7
547.8
541.1
527.9
557.2
551.1
533.6
564.4
559.2
538.5
572.0
565.6
541.2
577 0
572 5
544.9
583 1
578 4
JUly
August
September ........
October
November
December
553.7
560.0
1964
January
February
cjfV7
"1
593 1
603 6
614 o
587 3
595 5
Ai n 7
/30 7
2,155.9
2,233.1
2,299 6
2,266 6
2 , 249 . 9
2 311 3
2 268 8
2,236 7
2,340.7
2,351 5
2,324.9
433
437
439
440
441
//3
444
447
447
450
452
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
582 6
584.7
597.5
601.4
i7fjp609.1
634 8
641.1
656 4
665 9
[H]p676 9
620 1
631 o
633 6
647 6
Ae;q p
rmTiA7O &
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59-100)
114 3
115 5
116 7
118 3
118 0
118 0
118 8
118 7
119.5
118.9
119 7
119 7
18,990
19,139
19,320
19 389
19 585
19 311
1Q 668
19 671
19 844
19,837
20 112
20 253
100 . 8
100.7
100.7
100 7
100 9
100 8
100 9
100 8
100 9
100 9
100 8
100 7
120 1
120 0
120 8
120 7
122 0
1 PQ n
1 p-2 q
l PQ /
20 387
20 666
i py y
90 / PA
100 5
100 5
100 5
100 4
100 5
i on 8
100 9
100 9
i no 8
i pc 1
90 71 A
1 OO Q
1 PS 7
PO
1 97 1
91 ni Q
m
1 9^1 r
91 nnn
1 Ol
1
-| Qr;
Q
91 PJ5J5
CIQ'^
21,
1
o
4«4.p
487 7
/Q1 9
1
O& "2
12o.p
1 90 c
21, 223
?Q9
101 . 2
1 01 P
1 ^0
?
PI
777
101 1
-i on Q
1 Q-| c
91
77"3
91 Q ^ S
1 Ol
P
p A$i 7
yqp o
yqA -i
/QQ S
1 ^P A
99
1 Ol
P
2
?
2
2
501
502
506
512
7
8
6
0
133 8
PP PS/
101 3
i -29 A
PI
^8^
1 Ol
1 "3S 1
21 661
99 7$-|
1 Ol
A
1 Ol
7
2,416 2
2 345 9
2,357 2
2 472 5
2 419 2
2 368 2
2 561 0
2 463 1
2 559 0
2 605 5
2 527 4
2 610 2
7
2
8
8
8
/,
6
0
9
4
6
456 6
/, S/ Q
/,S6 7
y £7 p
460 o
/A? 1
464
467
i AQ
770
8
1
?
p
y7/ 7
y 78 Q
? S71 S
y cJ-|
p cqn ^
/ 8*2 o
4oj5.^
9
624.2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2,260.6
W7 Q
2 693 8
575.9
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
<•}?? I • J
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
52. Personal
income
2 688 4
2 607 4
2 746 7
755
771
730
803
9
S
3
5
/ rt /
p
r
? 80^ 1
515 8
p
S 1
SI S 7
2 923 8
2 962 0
£pO 7
P
3
7
3
ft/
871
01 Q
npl
018
S
/
n
8
[H]p3 022 6
SI 8 /
cpc
-2
-1-27-3
1 37 8
-i qq n
1/0 /
1 -20 7
T yn
A
528 8
1/1 S
con S
i y 99 £;
14^.
-pcqp n
-pi y o o
nun r> s / s ?
iTjl nl y 1 A
pn 77 y,
PO
20
20
9D
90
91
3 SO
276
200
/8A
7-1 q
SS8
9AA
99 QDD
9-2 -2-1 17
J5l /
99 Q(~)S
<cJ,
99 8AS
pq -2CP
<.J, Jj£
p-2 -2 on
<.J> JJ±-
1771 -yiQO "7 / -2
LHj r^jj, /4^
r»O7 DPP
A^^
r<ij5,
T-QQ Q y y
p^p, p44
100 9
i
r\-\
1 Ol O
S
1 Ol
7
1 Ol
q
1 OP 1
1 OP P
1 OP ?
1 OP A
-i fi9 A
rO O9 8
fwl-nl O9 Q
1 -i no >7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Week ended October 12.
TABLE
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER J965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
35.70
36.95
38.3$
37.95
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP
(1957-59=100)
Revised 1
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
99 7
99 7
99 5
100.7
100 8
101 1
100 7
100 9
100.4.
100 6
100.3
100.7
103.0
103.7
103.3
103.3
64. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
55 4
55 7
56 0
56.1
56 4
56 3
56 9
57 0
57.3
57 4
57 6
57 8
66. Consumer installment debt
19 0
19 1
1Q 1
19.2
19 3
19 4
1Q 5
19 5
19 7
1Q 7
19 8
19 8
/P 960
43 220
/ 3 S3?
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Percent)
/ Q#
44,017
// /37
44
45
45
45
46
46
826
200
588
838
206
689
/7 1 7/
5 01
4 99
...
(35 02
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
36 95
38.05
4.0.00
4.1.20
100 6
100 2
99 7
99 5
99.3
98 7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
104. o
104.2
103.9
104.7
57
58
58
58
'58
58
58
58
59
59
59
60
Q
0
1
3
5
7
9
9
1
3
8
1
1Q
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
Q
0
0
0
1
3
3
4
6
6
0
2
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
6l
61
62
62
0
1
3
5
5
4
5
8
0
8
4
9
21
21
21
21
21
2
/
A
6
6
63
63
63
64
6/
64
2
4
7
0
3
6
in AS9
...
/& 1 S/
/ $ 631
/Q 1 SP
5 00
...
49 593
SO 07Q
S 01
50 588
51 069
SI
/1 0
SI
9/1
s m
52 324
SP 7$/
5 00
S3 PI P
S3 7Q1
...
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
4-2.55
A3. 50
45 65
47 75
99 3
99.1
99.7
99 3
99 3
100 0
99 7
99 5
100 3
0101 2
99 5
98.9
104 2
104 6
105 1
(HJ106 3
pi ^
21 6
21*6
21 6
21 8
54
54
55
SS
315
727
220
SQO
/ 99
SA 07?
...
sA so#
22 2
S7
S7
S7
S£
22 4
op /
S# QAP
SQ 60 3
pp c
An p/n
An Q#/
PI Q
/ 99
OP1
/ 31
73P
PQP
/
9$
...
5 00
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
9£ Q
49.00
[HI 50. 35
a51 15
QQ
C
QQ
~]
QQ
£
77. o
QQ £
QQ A
98 8
QQ £
105 2
...
106 2
...
rAS /
CMA^
rfi m n
TTTI'nAS $
(NA^
pp Q
pp /
pp
Q
pp £
mV-nPP
S
IHJP^'C. p
C\ !"•"•/
MA^
Al As/
Ao o^A
AP QP9
rui
A? ,ci^)j>L
"3T
IHJUJ?
?TU- A ^
^INA;
/
97
...
/
QQ
4.77
...
s nn
aS? 9S
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by EH). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve
30Bank of St. Louis
iii.
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER J965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
1962
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
109 9
113.5
107 8
108 3
108 6
111 5
113 5
108 1
113 4
113 7
118 6
11 / 9
102.2
101.8
101 1
105.2
108 6
104. 5
110. A
107.7
108 4
107.1
110 1
108 4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
112.4
109.6
116.6
113.5
116 3
115 3
120.5
121 9
119.9
122.0
119 3
117.2
108 6
109.9
110 5
108 0
1964
January
February
Msrch
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
125.9
119 2
120 4
122.6
119.1
116.7
r!22.8
121 6
117.9
118. A
112.9
126.5
115 9
120 5
117 1
121.4
108.7
113.8
rll4.0
111.7
113.0
115.1
114.9
114.5
121.8
121.8
117.4
125.2
128.8
133.0
r!20.2
r!29.5
137 7
114.0
120 1
124 5
1 53 5
1965
January
February
March
April
May
. y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
114. o
112 7
112 9
116 5
112 6
114.. 7
114 9
118.1
1 1Q Q
119 4
r!22 1
r!21 9
121 4
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-7 7
-11.7
6 7
-3 1
0 0
7 0
-3 1
-5.0
4 6
-2 6
-0.4
5
6
8
6
0
6
5
5
-3
+0
6
5
p
8
3
1
5
Q
+1 8
2 6
7 6
5 /
+0 6
-3 2
-2 5
7 3
7 3
/ /
+0 Q
+1 2
-10 0
+1 3
3 3
2 6
-7.6
-8.8
-9 9
-4 9
-3 3
-3 6
+2.0
-1.1
-12.0
-7
1
+7
+28
8
13
8
7
1
3
9
6
+2 5
+2 8
4-1 Q
7 6
-16 3
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
A 477
3 999
l 311
/ 08?
1 930
1 657
4
4
3
4
4
4
517
385
892
535
920
140
2
2
2
2
2
1
017
149
111
983
734
984
4 632
4 137
2
2
2
1
?
2
2
198
435
154
966
2/0
334
419
1 039
1
1
1
1
1
395
040
675
787
205
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
586
206
366
215
358
363
132
700
207
010
09 /
273
1 075
1 8/3
937
4,086
L
L
421
233
4 078
/ 507
L Z.81
4 349
7
580
4 160
5 112
L
093
/ 371
L 351
5 317
/ 1 33
1,389
1 910
4,544
4 818
1 079
/ 3/9
1 494
803
1 1/1
889
1 089
1 870
4 677
966
603
1 735
4 278
1 557
/ 593
/ A^n
1 5^7
rl 140
/ 237
4
3
4
5
405
773
228
325
3 839
/ Ap/
? 733
2
2
1
2
578
086
681
079
2 149
? 6$Q
1 5Q#
2,508
2 454
1 879
2 904
1 9?6
2 191
1 745
2 008
1 883
1 830
1 628
1 #7/
p QpA
p 095
r4 520
/ ?5#
? /3£
p Ann
1 893
5 2?3
2 770
(NAl
(NA)
95/
(NA^
4 434
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
3 073
2,135
2 225
2 062
1 887
1 758
1,228
1 410
1 791
1
-1.2
-10.4
-2 9
91. Defense
90, Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
f TVTA \
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves*
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
110. Total private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
1 99
2.05
2 11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07
1 94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2 53
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
0 00
+2.52
+1 68
+4.08
3 24
+0 84
-0 84
0 84
-1 68
+4 92
+4.08
+4 92
+7
+11
+Q
+8
+1
+6
+5
+4
+4
+9
+8
+10
32
52
36
76
56
12
04
08
56
48
40
80
2 89
2 09
2.42
1 97
2.40
1.90
2.40
+375
+301
+269
+31 3
+247
+138
+161
+133
+4 08
+4 92
+1.56
+4 08
+3 24
+3.96
+6 36
+2 40
+2 40
+ 5 52
+7 08
0 84
+8
+8
+7
+7
+6
+7
+9
+8
76
76
20
68
24
08
00
88
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
43 480
36 664
53 388
37 780
/£ Q79
3Q
+2
+1
ju2
+2
+2
+2
+2
90
51
23
09
09
77
66
0/0
+ 3 #5
40 296
+2 82
+2 28
+2 82
48 536
+0 Q5
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.36
+91
+94
+33
2 47
1.92
1.97
1.48
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
2
?
2
3
2
9
r2
r2
37
//
46
9/
46
5#
62
80
-P,^
1£
+209
+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
i 1 r\
/ /
i /
r»
1 &1
1nr
7-
9$
1 ^A
•n I S /
p-J-24
9 9#
C.f~.
4-A nn
A 1 A
i -I o
;/
, C
-I t
+lj>.44
1 1 / /
+1.
44
_
, 1 1 1-7 /i
P+ll. /D
i 17 QO
+ / . V<c
, f.
55 916
38 652
+1 Q7
57 3/8
40 372
58 772
39 892
52,448
44 200
66 524
45 064
57 548
45 468
61 204
44 876
CO , 2j5D
/: r OQ£,
49,124
73,740
49 , 040
+12.60
+9.72
p+12.24
+2
+2
+4
+5
+5
04
08
66
22
78
+1
+3
+1
+3
+4
+3
+4
+4
+4
7Q
48
42
17
25
89
31
78
28
+1 / 3
+b. VD
-i-Q
+y . nn
UU
+10.80
+2 35
+1 74
Q/
Onn
+1 42
+1 85
_LO /n
U SA
16
88
44
76
92
72
76
12
48
52
04
88
7£
1 7#
+8 76
+11 04
+8
+5
+4
+5
+4
+9
+8
+9
+9
+8
+8
+8
4-9
38 6Q9
/ £
+3 96
+1.56
+2.40
+3 12
0 00
+7 80
+8 52
+3 84
+8 40
+4 56
+2 28
+4 56
+103
+ 39
119
_i_A
+1 / 3
44 628
(NA)
/1VT.
N
/"iVTA "\
(NA)
+0 32
+8 62
+12.35
+13.14
+12.46
/ ^_
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10.00
+5.53
p+4.00
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
32
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1962
113. Net change in
consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
114. Treasury bill
rate*
(Percent)
115. Treasury bond
yields*
(Percent)
86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total
116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+2.P3
+3.12
+3 74
+ 5.82
+5.04
+4 67
+4.49
+4.66
+3 00
+4.4-2
^5.80
+ 5.82
2 75
2 75
2 72
2 74
2 69
2 72
2 94
2.84
2 79
2 75
2.80
2.86
4 08
4 09
4 01
3 89
3 88
3 90
4 02
3 98
3 94
3 89
3.87
3.87
4 55
4 54
4 42
4 31
4 26
4 30
4 41
4 39
4 28
4 27
4 23
4.28
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
34
21
1/
06
11
26
28
23
11
02
04
07
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
69
68
65
64
60
5Q
58
57
56
55
54
53
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+5.82
+5.94
+ 5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+ 5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4 60
+ 5.52
2.91
2 92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3 00
3.14
3.32
3 38
3.45
3 52
3 52
3.89
3 92
3.93
3 97
3 97
4 00
4 01
3.99
4 04
4.07
4 11
4 14
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
/
4
22
25
26
35
35
32
34
33
40
36
/2
49
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
10
15
05
10
11
21
22
13
20
20
30
27
5
5
5
5
5
52
48
47
46
/5
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+ 5.14
+6 95
+6 29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+ 5.80
+ 5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72
3 53
3 53
3 55
3.48
3.48
3 48
3 48
3.51
3.53
3 58
3.62
3.86
4 15
4 14
4 18
4.20
4 16
4 13
4 13
4 14
4.16
4 16
4 12
4 14
4
/
/
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
49
38
/5
49
48
49
43
43
49
49
47
47
1 22
3 1/
+8.04
+7.69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
+7.22
+7.99
+7.31
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3 90
3.81
3 83
3.84
3.91
4 14
4.16
4.15
4.15
4 14
4.14
4 15
4.19
4 25
4
4
4
4
4
4
44
44
49
48
52
57
3 24
/ 57
3 97
4 66
4 71
3 24
3 35
5/5
5/5
5 45
5/5
5 45
1
1
1
I
1
l
1
1
1
1
1
1
668 3
809 3
672 0
795 /
76l 7
#35 6
748 3
702 5
907 9
542 8
724 6
838 7
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
985 7
123 6
957 8
913 7
895 2
803 1
840 8
922 1
Q58 9
967 5
5 / 5
5/5
1 QA5 6
9 f)/ 2 Q
o£
5 / 5
5 / 5
c /c
3 28
3 20
5/5
o
1 90
318
3
3
3
3
19
23
25
18
313
5 45
5 / 5
5 46
5 46
5 46
2 090 8
9
9
2
2
n/ A 9
n r 7/ n
061 1
061 8
9 03/ 9
9 1 99 Q
2 108 8
2 235 3
5 / 5
5/5
5 / 5
9 1 5/ £
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
1
1
9
9
9
2 196 8
9 / 30 /
1965
January
February
March
April
May
: '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(NA)
3
3
3
3
06
09
18
15
317
/5
/5
/5
/5
/ 5
//
/ /
/ 5
5 /6
91 7
5Q9
759
3&0
977
3
7
7
3
7
2 184 8
9 9^9 #
93/57
('NA'l
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
TABLE
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General imports, total
Year and month
(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
89. Excess of
81. Index of conreceipts (+) or
sumer prices
payments (-) in U.S.
balance of payments
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
94. Index of con96. Manufacturers'
struction contracts, unfilled orders,
durable goods invalue
dustries
(1957-59=
100)
(Bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1
(Bil. dol.)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1,326.5
1 376 5
+341.8
+489 5
+330.3
+430 . 4
+357 6
+484 9
+401 7
+356.6
+436 5
+230 7
+299 7
+462 2
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.8
1,414.6
1,416.3
1,430.9
1 , 449 . 5
1,497.3
1 , 443 . 3
1,455.4
1,465.5
1,479.8
-114.2
+613.2
+473.0
+499.1
+478.9
+372.2
+391.3
+424.8
+514.9
+512.1
+500.1
+611.0
1,434.4
1 , 460 . 3
1,519.5
1,540.6
1,539.4
1,518 4
1,578.1
1,574.9
1 546 4
1,547.7
1,697.7
1 642 2
+608.5
+585.9
+554.5
+520.5
+522.4
+515.8
+544.8
+533.9
+688 9
+607.1
+499 1
+788 2
1 206 4
1 600 5
1,869 0
1 #?/ 7
+10
-7
+883
+545
+478
+ "3^0
+593
+620
1 319 8
1 341 7
1,365.0
1 4,04, 1
1 350 7
1 346 6
1,345 9
1 /71 /
1 312 1
1 /?/, Q
104.7
104 9
105 1
105.3
105 4
105 4
105 3
105 5
105 9
105 8
105 8
105 9
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
1 ?3
138
45.80
46 42
45 75
45.41
44 95
44 58
44 33
43 73
43 37
43 58
/3 1 8
44 09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108 3
108.4
108.6
108 9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53 96
0
0
1
5
-i-P/Q
1 no Q
137
140
141
1 5?
i/ s
CMA")
110 2
110 0
110 0
(NA)
1 ?Q
1 /Q
1 "3Q
54 28
55 09
55.53
56 37
56 88
57 45
r57 83
r58 10
p58 87
792
267
-433
711
8 44
8 32
8 26
8 81
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
. '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-1,199
-1,108
-210
-153
-257
-582
-593
-1,366
8.88
9.38
10.05
11.02
12.08
13.23
14.54
14.97
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
, '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1
7QS Q
1 #?/ ft
I 669 8
1
7?^ 1
(NA^
9
8
7
6
8
n
0
3
(NA^
701
109
109
109
109
(NA)
15.66
p!7 06
(NA^
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.)
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
123. Canada,
47. United
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
122
126
124
129
125
128
129
1 30
130
131
132
132
133
132
115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127
120
121
122
123
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
127
126
127
130
1 31
132
132
1 3?
1 3/,
135
136
136
133
13/
l 33
135
133
133
1 ?3
1 97
1 P3
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
i /n
139
141
139
138
137
140
144
143
143
131
129
128
129
129
146
146
143
145
146
l /5
rl 5/
rl 5/
pl44
r!50
124.
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
129
128
1 3?
133
1 33
1 3Q
1 3/,
1 36
1 36
1 38
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
122
123
124
123
124
1 ?3
125
125
126
128
128
126
149
151
149
151
153
127
125
116
129
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
1 33
1 3/
1 ?Q
1 PQ
1 /7
151
149
150
153
158
160
1 36
(1957-59=
100)
182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
17Q
184
184
1Q1
1 QD
1Q1
P03
POP
PD7
1 73
211
PI /
1 3Q
1 37
1 3A
1 3#
1 70
PI 7
1 3Q
-I/O
i /n
1 7P
PI Q
1 3Q
-\ / r
1 3Q
1 on
i AQ
-1/70
i /j
168
166
164
166
1 56
165
164
166
166
pp/
140
171
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
128
128
129'
131
132
132
133
134
134
132
135
138
134-
135
135
136
139
140
1 / c
-L4P
-Ljy
140
1/1
150
140
1/3
1 LI
1/5
1/5
1/1
149
149
1 3?
1 3P
1 /,!
142
142
14-9
139
156
155
150
154
138
140
139
141
140
i /p
1 3£
99 /
^4
226
228
P3Q,
P3P
OQO
P3Q
P/l
P37
P/P
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, J
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
139
139
141
141
142
143
144
144
pH3
142
141
143
142
142
143
pi 44.
(NA)
r!28
pi 29
(NA)
(NA^
nl 5/
(NA^
•nl
7$
plj?o
TMA^
^IMA;
166
169
165
169
r!74
1 75
?/ 3
P37
24.2
24.0
P3/
T*P/ "3
n!75
P/l
(NAl
npon
P<c_}7
(NA ^
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e"r estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS9 FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Car/oadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOB« ^s bed
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Current expansion
July
1965
June
1965
Business cycle peak
Sept.
1965
Aug.
1965
Nov.
1948
July
1953
July
1957
May
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more c
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
7
1
2
1
3
3
3
4
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
8
2
1
3
2
2
2
4
7
1
2
1
3
2
2
2
4
24
17
24
17
7
2
1
1
"4
"i
3
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
*2
"i
2
16
12
24
0
9
I
5
1
2
15
X
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
1
2
"i
1
1
2
8
1
9
1
3
7
11
73
11
82
11
64
2
1
8
11
73
Apr.
1957
Apr.
1953
1
3
"3
1
3
"3
3
11
0
11
27
**2
2
3
1
4
11
27
11
36
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
3
4
1
2
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
4
13
2
4
"i
"2
2
5
1
2
1
1
2
'*4
20
5
21
5
21
"i
2
13
2
1
2
1
2
3
i
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
9
l
**5
2
"3
24
0
24
0
^0
15
2
21
33
18
1
2
1
2
6
7
3
2
2
i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
i
1
1
"i
"3
"i
*1
2
6
"5
4
3
2
"4
11
55
11
36
11
18
11
45
5
1
3
5
11
45
1
3
6
11
55
"4
4
2
1
"i
4
3
11
36
11
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
*4
series were not available.
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
38
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
CHART
OCTOBER 7965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
9-mo. span
1-mo. s p a n
Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 indus.
50
0
D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 indus.
100
50
0
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations17 indus., NICB
(~-3-Q span, —• — 1-Q span)
100
50
J 0
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher prafits-700 cos. (1-Q span)
75
50
-I 25
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-80 indus.
100
50
0
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mils.
100
i/
50
V
0
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insuri.-47 areas (inverted)
100
50
J
0
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7965
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
40
Percent
D41.
Employees in nonagr. estab!ishments-30 Indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span ---)
100
50
0
D47.
Industrial production-24 indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span ---)
100
50
0
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
(6-mo. span ——
Urna. span —.)
100
50
0
D54.
Sales of retail store* -24
(9-mo. s p a n —
types of stores
14mo. span —)
100
50
0
See How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7965
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
Actual
—
Anticipated —
D35. Net sales, all mfrs.-800 cos.
(4-Q span)
100
50
0
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 cos.
(4-Q span)
100
50
0
D48. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
(4-Q span)
100
50
0
D48. Change in total carloadings
+0.5
(millions of cars44-Q span)
0
J
D61. New plant and equipment expend.-17-22 indus.
(1-Q span)
100
50
0
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35,D36 (July 1965)
048 (Sept. 1965)
D61 ( Aug. 1965)
Actual
2nd Q 1964 - 2nd Q 1965
4th Q 1963 - 4th Q 1964
1st Q 1965 - 2nd Q 1965
Anticipated.
4th Q 1964 - 4th Q 1965
4th Q 1964 - 4th Q 1965
3rd Q 1965 - 4th Q 1965
i
;
'•
See low to Read *h*K I wt ?
41
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries) 1
Year and month
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1962
January
February
March
April. ...........
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
21.4
61.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31.0
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7
85.7
83.3
50.0
23.8
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
. Jm.
June
July....
August
September
October
November
December
76.2
50.0
61.9
H.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
92.9
85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
52.4
59.5
76.2
19.0
83.3
23.8
r47.6
r57.1
p28.6
76.2
81.0
r59.5
r59.5
P35.7
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
r59.7
r44.4
P51.4
77.8
75.0
77.8
69.4
p63.9
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
65
47
29
'?6
*76
*53
*59
74
47
53
'59
*53
*53
*65
*65
*76
53
76
*56
71
*53
44
*32
*59
r76
P71
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
P71
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•'•Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICB publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.)
42
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7965
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
. '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
54
47
'48
*56
50
59
'56
55
57
*60
57
'56
55
59
(NA)
D19. Index of stock prices, 500x common
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4
17.56.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0
53.8
46.2
46.2
42.3
42.3
46.2
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
38.5
30 ;8
30.8
38.5
23.1
15.4
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
46.8
76.6
38.3
48.9
46.8
19.1
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
80.9
55.3
48.9
36.2
46.8
44.7
38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
•44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
"53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
53.8
30.8
"69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
S
15.4
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
2
53.8
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
2
Average for October 14, 15, and 18.
on 79
43
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
1 -month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
65.0
75.0
75.0
86.7
60.0
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
86.7
88.3
81.7
78.3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0
25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4
83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
67.4
52.2
58.7
60.9
47.8
41.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
60.9
63.0
58.7
54.3
58.7
43.5
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
67.4
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
78.3
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
37.5
64.6
62.5
62.5
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
68.8
83.3
81.2
60.4
62.5
63.0
67.4
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
60.9
52.2
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
54.3
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
66.7
81.7
86.7
58.3
58.3
85.0
86.7
r50.0
p65.0
83.3
71.7
76.7
90.0
r80.0
p76.7
66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
r8l.2
81.2
r54.2
P37.5
83.3
85.4
83.3
r83.3
r79.2
P77.1
50.0
72.9
20.8
62.5
83.3
39.6
r8l.2
r37.5
P45.8
75.0
87.5
r91.7
r70.8
p79.2
63.0
60.9
67.4
r67.4
60.9
60.9
r63.0
r54.3
P54.3
76.1
80.4
r82.6
76.1
r67.4
p76.1
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
6-month span
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
44
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1962
January
February
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October..
November
December
"SO
88
'76
'si
57.9
94.7
-68
*76
80
74
74
62L2
89.5
1%
72
74
71
70
42.1
68.4
-67
74
82
'76
*76
63.2
63!2
+29
'•76
"so
77
"76
73.7
78.*9
+39
74
80
'76
*76
57.9
68^4
+44
82
*84
*82
'so
78.9
78.9
+21
'si
85
*82
"si
68.'i
73.7
-39
*83
'87
"si
'si
84.2
6s!i
r+11
*82
"S6
'si
"si
73.7
94^7
+68
*83
"87
84
"si
(NA)
89.5
+ 51
'si
88
84
85
89.5
+49
'si
84^2
*84
84.2
(NA)
88
*S8
(NA)
65.6
62.5
68.8
68.' 8
65l6
65.*6
46.9
68.8
40.6
50.0
65^6
75.0
75.0
71.9
71.9
75.6
71.9
50.0
62.' 5
50.0
84.4
75.0
96.*9
68.8
56.2
65.6
75.0
68!8
(NA)
65*.6
r+23
78.1
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
OCTOBER 7965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
May
June
W
Aug.
Sept.P
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
4.0.8
40.5
40.5
40.9
41.2
41.1
41.0
40.9
40.9
40.9
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
40. 4
40.4
41.2
41.3
42.2
41.7
40.0
39.4
40.5
41.1
42.8
41.3
40.6
39.7
41.2
41.5
41.9
41.4
40.4
39.9
41.5
41.5
42.2
42.0
40.6
40.2
41.8
42.2
42.2
42.3
41.7
40.8.
41.7
41.8
42.0
42.2
41.8
39.7
41.4
41.5
42.1
41.9
42.6
40.3
41.1
41.6
42.2
41.7
41.6
40.4
41.0
41.4
42.0
41.5
42.5
40.6
42.6
41.0
40.0
42.0
40.3
42.3
40.9
39.1
42.0
40.7
40.5
40.9
39.7
42.8
40.9
41.5
41.1
39.7
43.1
41.1
42.9
41.3
40.0
43.0
41.1
42.9
41.7
39.8
42.9
40.9
43.0
41.5
39.6
42.9
40.6
42.1
41.4
39.8
r£L.7
r40.7
r41.3
r41.5
r42.2
r£L.7
r42.8
40.7
r42.2
r41.2
r40.1
40.8
38.4
41.2
35.9
43.0
40.7
37.0
40.0
34.9
42.7
41.0
38.5"
41.5
36.4
42.4
40.9
37.6
41.5
36.6
43.1
38.5
42.0
42.3
41.6
38.4
40.9
37.2
41.4
36.4
42.9
38.5
41.7
41.9
41.7
37.7
38.4
41.5
42.1
41.6
37.9
r41.0
r37.4
1-41.8
r36.1
r43.0
r38.6
r41.7
r42.7
r42.2
37.6
40.2
36.8
41.8
36.1
42.8
38.5
42.1
42.5
41.3
37.7
41.3
39.6
41.8
36.5
42.9
38.6
41.6
42.0
41.6
38.2
41.2
38.3
41.3
36.2
42.9
38.6
41.3
42.1
41.8
37.9
41.0
39.3
41.4
36.2
42.9
38.6
41.6
41.6
41.6
38.5
21,751
2,874
(NA)
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries .
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
38.4
41.7
41.7
41.3
38.1
42.7
40.6
43.0
41.3
40.0
38.5
42.6
42.8
41.5
38.3
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
19,342
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
3,280
1,825
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
1,946
Machinery, except electrical
2,952
Steam engines and turbines*
\ 281
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
528
Metalworking machinery *
205
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *.
19,907
3,847
2,296
19,623
3,767
2,203
19,454
3,663
2,072
20,720
3,821
2,243
20,992
3,286
1,632
21,310
3,454
1,816
22,195
3,493
1,851
r 21, 461
r3,090
pi, 448
2,045
1,991
2,011
2,089
2,027
2,042
2,058
pi, 968
2,923
2,994
175
2,971
3,098
3,108
P3,299
(NA)
175
175
142
3,189
226
3,140
219
149
P283
(NA)
520
183
566
221
592
201
526
239
601
208
560
204
603
242
P604
P290
(NA)
(NA)
211
202
233
237
258
230
248
p247
(NA)
211
.
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
p = preliminary; NA = not available.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
46
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
r= revised;
(NA)
bed ocro.E. IMS
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Q
^
o
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising. .
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
,
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products . . .
-1
£
S
O j i .
c D ( U
Q?
AO
£>?
7A
+
-
+
-
O
4
f
+
TQ
O
O
•§
#?
=
0
4
O/
=
/#
4-
0-
0
_J-
,
I*
4-
4 - 4 -
-
Jl
c?
^ i J . j . ^ ' i ^ a
c D c a a . r o : 5 ' = 5
;
-
+
+
_|-
_£_
4
O
j
=
-
S
-
--
+
CD
+
-
—
4
—
+
—
4
79
3
79
95
-
- -
4
-
O
—
O
—
—
-
4
4
-
O
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
-
4
4
-
4
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0 4 -
+
-
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
4
—
+
+
O
O
+
+
+
O
4
-
+
O
—
O
—
4
+
4-
—
O
—
4-
—
4-
4 - 4 -
O
—
O
+
O
4
-
-
O
4
4
—
4-
O
76
—
!E*Q-
D
~
o
81
O
O
60
O
C
Z
D
O
60
36
-
4
—
-
0
-
4
+
4
-
-
4
4 - +
4
-
-
-
-
O
+
—
-
-
Q
+
4-
60
4-
-
4 - 4 -
~3
=
^ ^ 5 ^
C
-
CD
r
c
88
Q.
+
-
£
=J
9Q
+
-
_|_
4
_
S - s C S - ^ - ^ - s C
+
4-
u
o - l « ? l 5 - s
4 - 4 -
+
-
^7
o
3
O
—
—
4
-
+
—
—
4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
-f
-
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
O
—
+
f
+
+
+
-
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
4-
+
—
—
O
+
0
+
+
+
0
72 64
61 68 78
75
-
-
-
O
O
+
+
+
+
4-
,
+
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
• 68
4.9
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
39
64
50
44
58
60
44
51
83
-
4+
+
+
+
+
+
78
69
64
....
Fabricated metal products:
Hardware structural metal and wire products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
__
+ +
+
+
4
+
+
-
+
4-
0
+
+
-
-
0
+
-
-
4
+
-
-
+
4
--
+
--
-
+
+
4-
4-
+
+
+ 4 -
+
+
+
-
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
-
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4 - 4 -
+
+
4
+
_
+
-
-
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
-+
+
-
- + +
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ocro.E« INI
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Basic Data —Continued
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Sept.
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
May
Dec.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2 - Continued
Electrical machinery
2,694
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
}
638
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
609
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
4,771
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
2,581
2,542
2,763
2,637
2,801
2,874
r3,099
p2,978
(NA)
557
585
620
604
603
668
r672
p683
(NA)
618
549
655
484
659
691
r752
p629
(NA)
4,760
4,544
4,283
5,172
5,878
5,870
r6,363
r6,153
p6,734
115.3
114.6
115.2
rll4.8
.426
.076
36.055
1.894
.152
.146
.303
.207
1.643
.418
.075
35.677
1.867
.150
.145
.304
.212
1.695
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
Index: 1957-59 = 100
105.7
112.0
108.2
113.2
112.5
116.9
114.4
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib ) 15-market average
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RET AIL STORES2
(24 retail store components)
.339
.056
40.157
1.660
.362
.061
35.933
1.866
.402
.062
38.322
2.075
.140
.124
.315
.183
1.732
.140
.125
.311
.186
1.727
.145
.125
.310
.190
1.746
.146
11.946
.250
.066
.147
11.874
.260
.073
.142
11.826
.264
.073
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
22,266
22,254
21,383
21,661
22,781
4,743
4,755
4,736
4,774
4,913
4,904
4,978
r5,015
P5,012
(NA)
1,633
1,630
205
439
1,600
1,516
192
427
1,637
1,568
198
429
1,609
1,580
191
466
1,653
1,600
196
442
1,767
1,753
210
472
1,749 rl,8!4
1,666 rl,757
216
205 462
r467
pi, 801
pl,732
p207
P469
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
269
261
259
261
257
263
• r260
p266
.417
.393
.065
.073
41 . 534 39.824
1.629
1.889
.414
.073
38.600
1.910
.149
.125
.309
.191
1.691
.148
.125
.308
.194
1.667
.151
.147
.303
.206
1.642
.138
11.838
.270
.074
.137
12.018
.258
.082
.158
11.629
.272
.079
.162 • .164
11.733 11.919
.260
.265
.080
.079
.498
r.466
.444
.071
.072
.074
31.469 r29.9!8 29.774
1.827
1.911 rl.930
,150
.150
.149
r.160
.156
.148
.301
.302
.303
.210
.211
.211
1.746
1.712 rl.743
.186
r.167
11.581 11.523
.250
.254
.074
.074
.157
11.488
.239
.073
Millions of dollars
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
p = preliminary; NA = not available.
23,352
23,331 r23,743 r23,653 p23,344
254
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
(NA)
r= revised;
Average
for October 14, 15, and 18.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
48
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1965
964
1965
964
Diffusion index title and components
0
0 - ? £ l . t J l - l
>
o
A
_o
J _ J _
^
O
Z
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
....
Other durable goods, total
C
D
O
^
C
U
—| U _
CO
S
Q.
CO
<E
2E
I
S
"=3
—»
=3
—» « ^
+
-
0
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
_
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
—
—
+
—
—
4-
—
—
4-
4-
4-
-
+
'
c § " §
t a o A
+
-
+
>
=
c-
+
+
+
+
+
_-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
—
+
+
O
+
+
—
+
—
+
+
+
—
+
—
+
>
Q
« ^
0 C L
r
i -
i ^ s i ^ f t s Is!
+
+
-+
-
+
+
>
»-
--
+
+
-°
-
+
O--
03
c/o
r-
S f £ f t | ^ ^ < ^ S
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + +
- - - + + +
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
0
+
+
_
_
_
_
_
_
-
'
-4-
+
-I-
+
4-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
77
69
69
77
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
_
+
---
+
+
+
62
69
54
54
+ +
_ _
+ +
+ + +
+ _
_
+ +
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
38
54
31
69
77
54
58
46
42
50
15
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib )
+
+
_
_
_
_
_
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
—
+
+
+
+
+ —
Zinc(lb)
+
+
+
+
+
+ —
Burlap (yd.)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ —
Cotton (Ib ) 15~market average
0
+
Print cloth (yd ) average . .
+
+
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib )
f
+
+
+ +
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(24 retail store components)
62 50 73 21 62 83 40 81 38 46
Percent rising
+
+
+
—
+
+
— +
— —
Al 1 retai 1 sales • • «
Grocery stores
+
+ -+ + +
-Other food stores
+
+ + + + + - Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) • • +
+
+
+
+
Variety stores
+ --+ + - + + Other general merchandise stores
+ + + + - + + Men's and boys' wear stores
.
+ -
-
-
69
69
+
77
+
69
83
81
60
62
75
71
79
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-_
-
+
'
88 92
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+ = rising; o v = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
Average for October 14, 15, and 18.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
49
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER ,965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data —Continued
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
May
June
July""
Aug.P
Sept.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
519
504
512
517
518
519
517
527
516
(NA)
224
719
375
711
227
206
679
388
729
237
210
703
385
741
242
229
701
397
721
261
226
702
411
742
262
224
720
365
791
239
216
742
365
808
234
213
765
370
804
245
212
747
384
778
242
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
3,265
3,428
257
1,738
724
4,344
244
1,755
731
4,279
259
1,818
749
4,341
243
1,829
758
4,474
230
1,722
739
246
1,835
776
4,429
256
1,839
774
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
503
509
508
525
521
522
504
(NA)
5,025
234
1,690
722
494
4,301
230.
1,695
734
499
1965
1964
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
1965
Mar.
May
June
July r
Aug.r
60,382
103
529
352
500
1,068
987
1,200
1,145
1,265
246
336
1,121
73
82'4
1,233
501
619
542
113
355
316
60,602
60,680
106
532
352
505
1,073
993
1,218
1,150
1,305
249
345
1,126
66
826
1,206
505
625
550
114
363
315
60,806
111
533
353
506
1,070
992
1,228
1,156
1,298
250
343
1,127
64
829
1,216
505
625
547
114
361
318
630
3,220
4,068
3,352
9,321
638
3,178
631
3,211
4,092
3,355
9,353
619
3,191
4,112
3,358
9,366
Sept.P
Thousands of employees
D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
58,878
59,206
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
102
532
340
500
1,038
933
1,145
1,065
1,156
235
330
100
536
344
501
1,041
951
1,165
1,078
1,181
237
333
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products . . ,
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
1,151
80
808
1,181
496
605
530
114
337
315
1,154
76
812
1,186
495
610
532
113
339
315
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
639
3,162
.'
3,997
3,246
9,065
637
3,244
4,020
3,259
9,103
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
59,334
100
533
345
503
1,044
964
1,166
1,086
1,207
238
332
1,150
74
817
1,196
495
611
536
113
343
315
59,676
101
540
348
503
1,046
979
1,168
1,099
1,212
240
334
1,144
73
820
1,192
498
615
637
112
350
316
59,992
100
544
352
508
1,047
957
1,179
1,113
1,237
241
337
1,147
72
824
1,199
500
616
539
114
354
318
633
3,235
3,939
3,270
9,177
635
3,281
3,997
3,288
9,244
633
3,304
4,042
3,303
9,319
60,110
101
531
352
500
1,037
981
1,186
1,130
1,251
240
335
1,131
73
822
1,211
499
618
539
111
354
319
629
3,207
4,057
3,329
9,307
r = revised; p = preliminary; NA = not available.
104
534
354
506
1,090
998
1,217
1,155
1,268
252
336
1,129
74
826
1,207
507
624
549
115
358
315
4,074
3,362
9,348
bed OCTOBER 7965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1964
Diffusion index title and components
o
1 £ I
O
Z
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
CD
O
+
CD
—»
|-
CD
U_
1 -1
03
2E
13
00
13
00
Q
03
2E
=3
3.
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-f-
4-
O
+
O
-
-
+
4-
-
+
4-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
4-
+
-
4-
4-
4-
-
0
4-
4-
-
-
-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
+
+
_
-
+
+
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
44-
+
4-
+
4-
£
+
4-
4-
+
+
4-
4-
+ .
+
CI
0
-5
if
5
78
+
67 8£ 87 58
+ + +
-
S:
JE
00
=3
<C
"=3
1
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment •
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
+
+
+
= rising; o = unchanged;
S.
—>
1
cp
87
50
65
87
80
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
-f
4-
-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
+
-
-
0
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
+
-
4-
-
4-
4-
+
4-
44
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
O
4-
-
-
4-
-
4-
-
4-
4-
0
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
-
+
4-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
O
4-
4-
4-
-
+
4-
4-
4-
O
-
4-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
+
+
+
-
+
0
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
+
+
4
+
-
4
-
+
4
-
-
4
-
+
4
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
444-
4-
+
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
+
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
O
+
CD
GO
90
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
Q.
<c
I_L_
4-
4-
44-
444-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
444-
+
4-
+
4-
o
0
00
cu
0
CD
O
O3
.0
CD
o
90
83
72
77
90
80
77
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-f
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
44-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
o
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
o
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
u_
Q.
8
03
0
4-
o
-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
0
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
58 85
+ +
c?
%
-
4-
4-
1965
-
4-
44-
4-
4-
+
4-
Q
4-
+
O
4-
s-
GO
0
4-
4-
1964
13
3 j| 1 -1 -jl
Z
GO
"o
0
00
^3
6-month spans
1965
| -§
O
+
44-
13
4-
1-month spans
1964
—i
0
+
4-
=3
00
=3
O
4-
44-
O
cS.
+
44-
13
4-
4-
-
IS
S.
+
4-
4-
03
—I
03
4-
-
JQ
CD
Lt_
c
to
Q.
<C
4-
4-
1965
1964
1965
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
44-
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
o
O
4-
4-
- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOB« i965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
Nov.
1965
1965
1964
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug. r
Sept.P
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^.
Finsnce insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
2,970
8,6342,354
7,306
2,975
8,654
2,352
7,340
2,979
8,689
2,342
7,365
2,987
8,730
2,335
7,407
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products • • •
Machinery except electrical •
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay g'ass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
»
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Chemicals and products • •
Minerals:
pnaj
2,997
8,754
2,340
3,005
8,797
2,345
7,451
7,519
3,013
8,814
2,352
7,567
3,018
r8,886
2,374
r7,568
3,024
8,897
2,379
7,579
2,385
7,640
3,026
8,917
Index: 1957-59-100
135.4
138.1
138.6
139.2
140.7
141.6
142.7
144.2
144.3
142.8
136.1
136.9
138!6
139.7
139.6
140.6
136.9
145.0
140 '.4
145.2
140 '.2
146.0
143 '.0
r!46.4
rl48.7
r 148.1
144*. 2
148.2
130
146
148.1
14-7.2
129.2
140.2
150.7
149.2
140.3
142.0
151.3
150.0
141.4
142.7
152.7
152.3
139.7
145.3
153.*8
154.1
144.4
146.9
157!6
156.8
147.3
147.0
159 '.4
158.4
149.5
149.8
rl62.0
r!58.6
149.8
152.1
162! 6
158.9
151.3
151.5
127.7
109.2
130.2
105.5
132*. 4
111.9
131.8
115.6
129.2
120.5
130 '.3
117.1
131.6
112.8
132.6
rl!5.4
133!l
114.5
162
161
148
154
126
133
(NA)
1&.3
137.4
151^5
139.1
150.6
139.6
154^3
154-13
156.5
143.6
156!s
143.6
r!55!8
r!42.1
157.*2
142.4
128.7
139.1
105.4
130.3
140.6
105.6
131.7
142.2
108.7
132.0
143.7
106.6
131.5
144.0
106.1
131.6
145.3
110.9
r!32.2
r!45.4
r!05.1
rl33'. 8
pl!4.8
p!07.7
133^8
124.2
140.2
126.2
139 il
126.8
137*. 5
127.7
139*.0
128.5
140 '.9
129.3
139 '.4
130.0
rl42! 3
rl31.3
163.2
121.7
163.7
166.4
120.9
165.7
166 '.7
119.0
164.7
167.8
121.5
171.1
169^5
169! 3
122.9
168.2
169.9
121.8
rl69.1
rl72.8
r!26.3
pi 69. 4
123.5
121.0
123.8
125.4
124.3
122.2
123^4
123^4
123.5
127.2
121.9
116.5
122.3
121.8
ri.23.1
P119.9
141.6
132.9
164.7
174.4
125.2
(NA)
122.6
122.8
(NA)
109.6
110.4
110.1
110.4
107.7
109.8
103.2
110.6
103.1
111.4
113.0
111.9
rl!7.1
rl!2.5
117.1
rll2.6
115.2
114.5
126^6
123.9
121.8
123.4
126.7
120.8
123.4
122.9
124.6
124.1
121.6
123.9
123.7
125.8
rl26.4
r!27.3
127.4
128.4
107
112
127
(NA)
(NA)
101.4
101.5
101.6
101.8
102.0
102.6
103.1
103.0
103.3
103.2
100.3
98.6
101.8
100.8
100.6
98.5
101.5
100.9
102.1
98.3
101.8
101.1
101.7
98.2
101.7
101.1
100.9
98.3
101.8
101.4
99.6
98.0
101.8
101.3
99.3
98.0
102.1
101.3
99.5
97.8
102.1
101.6
101.0
97.7
101.7
101.3
101.4
97.7
101.9
101.4
140.8
122.2
172.6
157
147
146.2
134.7
133.9
(NA)
(NA)
135
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
135
(NA)
130
166
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
123
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau ofthe'Census.
52
r= revised; p = preliminary; NA = not available.
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
bed °cro««"«
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1964
Diffusion index title and components
1965
1964
1965
£
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate ,
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
,
State and local government
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production.
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products.
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products .
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
81
79
+
Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel, and leather ...
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber.
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products ..
Foods, beverages, and tobacco ..
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+
58 71
+
+
+
+
81
81
54
38
+
+
o
-
+
- NA
+
+
+
+
-
+ + NA
- NA NA
+ NA NA
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
NA
NA
NA
+
NA
NA
NA
o
NA
NA
88 79
92
92
83
-
+
83
83 79
77
- NA
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+ NA
NA NA
NA NA
+
+
+
+ NA
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ NA
NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
- NA
NA NA
-
+
+ NA
NA
-
85
+
+
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries.
67
67
61 61
63
54 54
61 70 78
83 76
80 83 76
67
76
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
+ - rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NA Not available,
x
The percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
oaont IMS bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.r
Sept.p
Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINGMtontinued
Durable goods-Continued
112.3
99.7
108.3
r!04.4
104.. 9
96.3
100.6
108.7
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manrnade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp paper and all ied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
100.4
107.3
98.8
103.4
96.5
103.1
99.0
97.0
93.6
91.8
105.0
113.2
111.6
100.1
99.9
108.0
107.8
r!04.7 r!03.9
104.1
105.2
95.8
96.8
100.8
100.8
107.9
109.4
101.1
107.4
98.9
102.5
96.9
103.1
98.9
97.3
93.3
91.8
105.1
101.3
107.4
99.1
103.0
97.0
103.3
98.6
97.0
94.1
92.0
105.1
112.1
100.1
108.6
104.3
105.1
96.9
101.0
108.4
112.3
100.4
109.0
104.4
105.0
97.3
100.7
109.1
114.9
101.4
109.5
104.7
105.6
96.6
100.5
110.8
116.2
101.2
109.0
104.8
105.6
97.2
100.7
113.0
115.8
101.4
109.3
104.7
105.2
97.3
100.5
113.3
116.6
101.7
110.2
105.7
105.2
96.7
100.7
112.2
117.2
101.7
110.1
105.5
105.0
96.6
100.7
110.9
102.2
108.0
99.2
102.9
96.4
103.3
98.7
97.4
94.0
92.0
105.9
102.0
108.0
99.3
102.7
96.2
103.4
99.3
97.3
94.5
92.1
106.7
104.1
108.4
100.1
103.8
95.8
103.4
100.1
97.5
95.5
93.2
107.3
106.2
107.7
100.7
103.9
95.7
103.6
100.1
97.4
95.4
93.5
107.6
106.3
107.2
100.9
104.7
95.6
103.6
107.0
107.1
100.8
105.1
94.8
103.7
106.1
107.4
100.9
105.4
94.3
103.8
100.2
97.5
95.5
r93.5
108.4
100.3
97.3
97.4
93.4
112.0
100.4
97.4
96.7
93.5
111.2
r= revised; p = preliminary.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
Digitized for
54FRASER
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
bed OCTOBER J965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1965
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
,
Fabricated structural metal products
,
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
,
General purpose machinery and equipment
,
Miscellaneous machinery
(
Electrical machinery and equipment
,
Motor vehicles
,
Miscellaneous products
,
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
,
Tobacco products and bottled beverages ,
Cotton products
,
Wool products
(
Manmade fiber textile products
,
Apparel
,
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
«
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products .
+
- -
+
+
+
+
O
+
-
-
+
-
+
O+
0
-
+
+
0
-
--
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-f
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
-
+
o
-
+
-
+
H
H
-
O
+
O
+
+
-H
+
O-
+
O
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
O
- -
+
+
-
9-month spans
1-month spans
1964
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising 3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite.
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment...
Electric household appliances ...
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retai I stores composite
Life insurance
24
1965
92
+
82
+
64
-
71
+
67
1964
0
81
25
+
-
1965
-
75
-
O
+
+
77
77
80
58
52
58
73
+
o
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
-f
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
1
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter.
2
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER ,965 bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
1964
9-month spans
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17).
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
83
24 57 66 62 60
51
38 79
62
70
72
79
79
60
66
4
4-
4-
4
4-
4-
4
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
-
4
4
4
4-
44-
4-
4-
+
4-
4
4
+
4-
4
4-
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4-
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4-
-
4
4
4-
4
+
4
4
4
4
4-
4
4
4
44
4
+
+
+
-
_
+
-
+
-
+
4-
4
4
4
4-
4-
+
4
4
+
+
+
4
4-
-
4-
4
+
4
+
4
+
4-
4
+
+
4
4-
4
+
+
4
-
4
62
4
4
4
4-
4-
4
4
4-
4
4
4
- = rising; o -unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. (See
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each .labor
market area.
56
BCD Technical Paper
SUMMARY OF THE X-11 VARIANT OF THE
CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM
Julius Shiskin, Allan H. Young, and John C. Musgrave
Bureau of the Census
I.
HISTORY OF CENSUS SEASONAL
ADJUSTMENT METHODS
There are various and sundry methods for seasonally
adjusting economic time series, all of which are based on the
premise that seasonal fluctuations can be measured in an
original series (O) and separated from trend, cyclical,
trading-day, and irregular fluctuations. The seasonal component (S) is defined as the intrayear pattern of variation which
is repeated constantly or in an evolving fashion from year to
year. The trend-cycle component (C) includes the long-term
trend and the business cycle. The trading-day component
(TD) consists of variations which are attributed to the composition of the calendar. The irregular component (I) is
composed of residual variations, such as the sudden impact
of some political events, the effect of strikes, unseasonable
weather conditions, reporting and sampling errors, etc. The
seasonally adjusted series (CI) consists of the trend-cycle
and irregular components. Experience has indicated that the
seasonal, trend-cycle, trading-day, and irregular components
are related in a multiplicative fashion (O= S x C x TD x I) for
most national economic time series.
The seasonal-adjustment method in the most widespread
use today is the ratio-to-moving-average method, which was
developed during the 1920's by Frederick R. Macaulay at the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). It has the
advantages of relatively precise measurement of the components and flexibility concerning the types of series which
may be well adjusted by it.
In 1954, the Bureau of the Census introduced the first
electronic computer program for seasonally adjusting
economic time series, making the application of the ratioto-moving-average method on a large-scale basis possible
for the first time. Variants of the Census Method are now in
widespread use throughout the world for adjusting series at the
company, industry, and national-aggregate levels.
In 1955, the original Census Bureau program was replaced
with a revised procedure called Census Method II. Since that
time, the Census Bureau has conducted an extensive re search
program designed to improve seasonal adjustment methods.
This program has moved forward on two fronts. First, there
has been a major effort to improve the ratio-to-movingaverage method. This effort has been directed primarily to
methods of improving the moving averages used to compute
seasonal-factor and trend-cycle curves, the moving-aver age
weights used for computing the ends of these curves, the
estimation of trading-day variation from monthly data, and the
handling of extreme values. In addition, research intended
to exploit parametric methods using multiple regression
techniques has been undertaken. Regression analysis allows
for explicit functional specifications of the seasonal and
trend-cycle components which lend themselves to conventional
statistical analysis more readily than the estimates provided
by the ratio-to-moving-average method. However, such
techniques are presently not as desirable as the movingaverage methods in practice, since no regression models
have yet been demonstrated empirically to provide sufficiently
accurate estimates of the trend-cycle and the seasonal,
particularly in the current period.
From time to time, experimental variants of Method II
which incorporate the results of this re sear chare introduced.
They are identified with the letter "X" and a sequence number.
The first such variant to be made available to the public
(1960) was X-3. It differed from the original Method II in
the method of replacing extreme values and the method of
computing the seasonal factors for the most recent years.
The latest variants to be introduced (1961) were X-9, which
was used as the standard program, and X-10, which was used
to adjust more erratic series. X-10 contains a variable
seasonal-factor curve routine, which selects a seasonalfactor moving average whose length depends on the relative
amplitudes of the irregular and seasonal fluctuations in a
given month. Thus, it is able to fit more stable seasonal
curves to highly irregular series than previous variants of
Method II.
In October 1965, the X-11 version of Method II replaced
the X-9 and X-10 versions as the standard program at the
Bureau of the Census and is now available to other users.
It includes several improvements over earlier versions.
The new features in X-11 provide additional tools for the time
series analyst. While the computations in the standard
program are sufficient for most applications, the analyst can
select optional features peculiar to his own needs. For
example, he may choose between the additive and multiplicative
versions and between the full seasonal-adjustment routine and
one limited to the calculation of summary measures computed
from seasonally adjusted data obtained from other sources;
the cr limit for identifying extreme values may be varied,
providing for contingencies such as strikes; and he may
specify the moving averages to be used in estimating the
trend-cycle and seasonal components. Another possibility
is to take into account both the absolute and relative relations
among the seasonal, trend-cycle, and irregular components
A full description of X-11 will appear in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. A Fortran
deck for X-11 will also be available from the Bureau of the
Census at cost.
Morton Somer programed the monthly versions of X-11
and Norman E. Bakka programed the quarterly versions.
57
of time series by making additive and multiplicative adjustments sequentially. As a result of the availability of
these options, X-ll is an instrument, not only for the massive
seasonal adjustment of time series, but also for seasonally
adjusting unusual series, for research into new techniques
of time series analysis, and for studies of the relations
among different types of fluctuations.1
a .weighted 15-term average was applied regardless of the
I/C ratio, more appropriate moving averages will be selected
for highly irregular and very smooth series. In this manner,
the range of series which can be adequately ad justed by Method
II is extended. For special purposes, the user can specify the
moving average to be applied rather than accept the selection
provided by the program. More details are given in section
IV.
The major improvements in X-ll are summarized in
section II and described in sections III to VI. X-ll is
compared with earlier versions of Method II in section VII.
Graduated Treatment of Extremes
II. SUMMARY OF IMPROVEMENTS IN X-ll
Quarterly Program
In addition to the monthly seasonal adjustment program,
a program (X-11Q) is now available to adjust quarterly
series. The operations in the quarterly program are analogous
to those in the monthly program.
Additive Programs
Both X-ll and X-11Q contain options which enable the user
to make additive as well as multiplicative adjustments. As
in earlier versions of Method II, an option is available to
compute summary measures of the trend-cycle and irregular
components from seasonally adjusted input data.
Fortran Coding
The X-ll and X-11Q programs are available in Fortran
IV, a simplified programming language which can be used on
many different computers. The selection of Fortran makes
X-ll readily available for use on many medium- and largescale electronic computers. Program modifications can
easily be made to adapt the computations or selection of
output tables to specific uses.
Trading-Day Routine
A technique for estimating trading-day variation from information contained in the monthly data is included in X-ll.
The monthly irregular values are regressed upon a calendar
that contains the number of times each day of the week occurs
in each particular month in order to estimate seven daily
weights. The user has the choice of basing a trading-day
adjustment solely on the internally computed estimates, combining the internal estimates with a priori information that
may be available or basing the adjustment solely on a priori
information as in earlier versions of Method II. More information concerning the new trading-day routine is given in
section III.
Variable Trend-Cycle
Moving-Average Routine
A choice of several moving averages is available in X-ll
for estimating the trend-cycle component. The appropriate
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series is chosen
on the basis of a preliminary estimate of the T/C ratio, which
relates the average absolute month-to-month percent change
in the irregular to that in the trend-cycle. While the trendcycle moving average selected for most series will be about
the same as that in previous versions of the program, where
-""For the advantages of time series analysis with the types
of adjustments made by this program, see Electronic Computers and Business Indicators by Julius Shi skin, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Occasional Paper No 0 57,
New York, 19570
58
An improved treatment of extreme values is introduced.
Rather than designating values in the irregular component
that fall more than 2 standard deviations (a's) from 100 as
"extreme" and assigning them a "weight" of zero as was
done in earlier variants, a graduated scheme is used.
Values outside 2.5 a are considered definitely extreme and
receive zero weight. Weights for values between 1.5 and
2.5 crare graduated linearly from full weight at 1.5 cr to zero
weight at 2.5 <X Values within 1.5 cr receive full weight.
Iteration, based upon a modified original series where irregular values beyond 1.5 crare modified with the graduated
weights, is used to reduce the effect of large irregular
values upon the final estimates of the seasonal and trendcycle components. More details are given in section V.
Additional Tests and
Summary Measures
New tests and summary measures have been added as
analytical aids. Included are the following:
1. New summary measures.—Estimates of the percent contributions of S, C, I, TD, and P (prior adjustment factors, such as holiday adjustments) to the
variation in O are given as additional summary
measures. These measures give the user a better
appreciation of the importance of each component than
did the previous technique of presenting ratios of average
absolute mojith-to-month percent changes (I/C, I/S,
S/O, etc.). I/C is now shown for 1- to 12-month spans
instead of the previous 1- to 5-month spans, although
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is still shown as
"6" when 1/C * 1.0 over the 5-jnqnth span. Also, other
summary measures such as I, CI, etc., are computed
over spans other than 1 month. In addition to measures
of average percent change without regard to sign (I, C,
etc.), the average percent change with regard to sign
and the standard deviations of the percent changes in
O, I, C, S, CI and MCD (the MCD-span moving average
of CI) over several monthly spans are shown.
2. X-ll test for stable seasonality. —This consists of
an analysis-of-variance F-test for stable seasonality.
The F-test is applied to the S-I ratios to determine
whether seasonality is present in the unadjusted series.
3. Test for the existence of trading-day variation.—
An analysis-of-variance F-test may be applied to determine whether trading-day variation is present in the
unadjusted series. Since this method also tests the
significance of the daily weights which may be computed
internally from the data, the F-ratio may be used to
decide whether or not to apply the computed daily
weights.
4. Standard errors.—Estimates of standard errors
of the trading-day weights and monthly adjustment
factors are included to aid the user in assessing the
significance of trading-day variation in the series.
More details on these tests and summary measures are
given in section VI.
III. TRADING-DAY ADJUSTMENT
An option in X-ll provides for a trading-day adjustment
based upon the actual variations in the data. Seven daily
weights are estimated by regressing the irregular series
upon the number of times each day of the week occurs in each
particular month.
From these seven weights, monthly
factors are constructed and divided into the data to remove
trading-day variation. A trading-day adjustment based upon
the information contained in the data rather than upon a priori
information concerning the daily pattern of activity has the
following advantages:
1. It is less expensive than attempting to establish
independently the pattern of daily activity for each
individual series.
2. It often provides a better adjustment because
allowance is made for the net effect of several factors
related to the calendar, some of which (such as the
effect of bookkeeping practices) may not be possible to
determine a priori.
In general, when the irregular component of .the series has
an average absolute month-to-month change (I) of less than
about 8 percent, the estimates provided from the data are
adequate for the removal of trading-day variation. When the
data are more irregular, the routine will not provide useful
estimates. Standard tests of significance are provided to
help appraise the reliability of the estimates for a given series
and to determine whether trading-day variation (or residual
trading-day variation if a prior adjustment has been made)
is present in the original series.
In addition to the option of estimating seven daily weights
from the data, two other options are available:
1. Rather than basing an adjustment upon estimates
made from the data, seven daily weights from which the
computer constructs monthly adjustment factors can be
supplied by the user. This option is useful when
there is reliable a priori information concerning
trading-day variation or when the user wants to apply
the same weights as those used in another adjustment.
2. Seven daily weights can be supplied by the user;
and, if they do not entirely explain the trading-day
variation found in the data, they can be corrected on the
basis of the internal evidence and the modified weights
can be used to make the trading-day adjustment.
In addition to these new techniques which use seven daily
weights, an option of supplying a set of monthly adjustment
factors which the computer divides into the unadjusted data is
available. This option can be used in place of the new techniques to adjust for trading-day variation; or it can be
used with or without the new techniques to ad just for holidays,
strikes, etc.
sonally adjusted series will be virtually the same whether
or not this option is used, since length-of-month variation
will be included in the seasonal factors if allowance is not
made for it in the trading-day factors.
IV. MOVING AVERAGES
Variable Trend -Cycle Curve Routine
In X-ll, the moving average used to estimate the trendcycle component is selected on the basis of the amplitude of
irregular variations in the data relative to the amplitude of
long-term systematic variations. This routine selects a
moving average that provides a suitable compromise between
the need to smooth the irregular with a long-term inflexible
moving average and the need to accurately reproduce the
systematic element with a short-term flexible moving average.
For many series, the average chosen in X-ll has about the
same smoothing power as those used in earlier versions of
Method II. For highly irregular or very smooth series, a
more appropriate average is chosen, thereby extending the
range of series which can be well adjusted by Method II.
The selection of the appropriate moving average for
estimating the trend-cycle component is made on the basis
of a preliminary estimate of the I/C ratio (the ratio of the
average absolute month-to-month change in the irregular
to that in the trend-cycle). A 13-term Henderson average
of the preliminary seasonally adjusted series is used as the
preliminary estimate of the trend-cycle, and the ratio of the
preliminary seasonally adjusted series to the 13-term
average is used as the preliminary estimate of the irregular.
The appropriate average selected for a given value of I/U is
given in the following table:
I/C
Length of moving average selected
0.00-0.99
9-term Henderson
1.00-3.49
13-term Henderson
3.50 and over
23- term Henderson
The three new weighted moving averages in the variable
trend-cycle routine replace the weighted 15-term Spencer
average used in earlier versions of Method II. The new
averages meet the same criterion of smoothness as the 15term Spencer average; i.e., they minimize the sum of squares
of the third differences of the curve. The distinctive feature
in X-ll is the introduction of a 9-term moving average for
smooth series and a 23-term moving average for highly irregular series. (A 5-term Henderson average is used for
all quarterly series.)
Seasonal-Factor Curve Routine
In computing monthly trading-day adjustment factors from
a set of seven daily weights (a priori or those computed by
X-ll), an option is available to include a length-of-month
adjustment in the monthly adjustment factors.2 The sea-
The S-I ratios for each month are smoothed by a 3x5-term
moving average (a 3-term average of a 5-term average) to
estimate final seasonal factors. In the X-9 version, S-I
ratios were smoothed with a 3x3- or a 3x5-term average
depending on the value of I. The weights for extending the
3x5 average at the ends of series in X-ll are the same as
those used in X-9.
"Length-of-month variation" is defined as variation attributable to the number of days in a particular month, while
"trading-day variation" is defined as variation attributable to
the number of Mondays, Tuesdays, etc., in a particular
' month.
Optionally, the user may specify any of the following
seasonal factor curves to compute final seasonal factors for
any particular month: 3-, 3x3-, 3x5-, 3x9-, n-term, where"n"
is the number of years of data in a particular month (i.e., a
stable seasonal).
59
V. GRADUATED TREATMENT
OF EXTREMES
Many economic series contain extreme values which must
be modified or removed before adequate estimates of the
seasonal, trading-day, and trend-cycle components can be
made. These extremes may reflect economic developments,
such as strikes; reactions to unexpected political events;
unseasonable weather; errors of measurement; etc. In many
instances, allowance for extremes can be made by the user
before the data are submitted for seasonal adjustment. However, it is generally more feasible to rely upon the computerized statistical tests provided in Method II to detect
and remove extremes.
Previous versions of Method II computed preliminary
estimates of S and the standard deviation of I and designated
as extreme those S-I ratios which fell 2 or more cr*s beyond
the estimates of S. The a's were computed separately for
each month. Values designated as extreme were replaced in
the original version of Method II with an average of the
extreme value and the ratios for that month in the preceding
and folio wing years. InX-3, X-9, and X-10, the extremes were
replaced with an average of the two nearest nonextreme S-I
ratios on either side of the extreme for that month.
The previous techniques are replaced in X-ll with a new
scheme that tests each value of a preliminary irregular
component against a standard deviation computed over a
moving 5-year period (60 months or 20 quarters). For
example, the irregulars in 1952 are tested for extremeness
by comparing them with a cr computed from 1950 to 1954.
A preliminary cr is computed, values beyond 2.5 (Tare removed, and a is recomputed. Values outside 2.5 a are considered extreme and are assigned a zero (0.0) weight. Values
inside 1.5 cr receive full weight (1.0). Values between 2.5
and 1.5 cr receive partial weight, graduated linearly from
zero at 2.5 crto full weight at 1.5 or.
The choice of 1.5 and 2.5 as cr limits is optional. For
some purposes other limits may be desirable. Lower limits
are sometimes better for highly irregular series or series
substantially affected by strikes, where a greater portion of
the series may be regarded as extreme. Likewise, higher
limits are sometimes better for very smooth series.
Iteration is used in the following ways to improve the
designation of extremes:
1. The computation of cr is iterated by computing a
preliminary cr, removing extremes beyond 2.5 a and recomputing cr.
2. The process of developing a preliminary irregular
component in which extremes are identified involves
iteration by (a) modifying values in the original series
corresponding to months where less than full weight
was assigned to an irregular, (b) reestimating the trendcycle and seasonal components and deriving a new
preliminary irregular component, and (c) reidentifying
extremes and modifying the original series again. After
modifying the original series for the second time, final
estimates of the trend-cycle and seasonal are developed.
This new technique of identifying extremes results in the
following improvements:
1. It modifies the original series rather than the S-I
ratios, thereby taking account of the effect of extremes
upon the trend-cycle.
60
2. Assigning a graduated weight pattern to nearextreme values removes the all-or-nothing decision in
earlier versions of Method II, where a value might
receive full weight in one adjustment and zero weight in
a subsequent adjustment containing additional data. This
phenomenon had, at times, contributed to substantial
revisions in the seasonal factors.
3. Computing the cr limits over all 12 months makes
it possible to identify more extremes in a single month.
4. Computing the cr limits over moving 5-year
periods substantially abates the effect of additional data
upon revisions in the seasonal factors for the early
years of the series.
In estimating trading-day variation, a less complex technique is used to identify extremes than that described above.
A "trading-day standard deviation" is computed, extremes
beyond 2.5 cr are removed, and cr is recomputed. For the
entire period included in the trading-day regression, irregular values beyond 2.5 cr limits are excluded from the
regression.
The X-ll treatment is an adaptation of that introduced
in 1964 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It combines
the iterative procedure with the variable trend-cycle moving
average and trading-day routines. Also, the Census Bureau
procedure of developing a modified original series allows
for the contigency that several consecutive values may be
regarded as extreme, as in the case of a prolonged strike.
The limits of 1.5 and 2.5 cr are optional in X-ll, whereas
the BLS procedure uses fixed limits of 1.0 and 2.8 cr.
VI. NEW TESTS AND
SUMMARY MEASURES
X-ll Test for the Existence of
Stable Seasonality
A test for the existence of stable seasonality (available
optionally in X-9 and X-10) is performed on the final unmodified S-I ratios in X-ll. It consists of computing the ratio
of the "between months" variance to the residual variance.
If this F-ratio is above a given tabled value, a message is
printed that stable seasonality is present.
Some caveats in interpreting the results of the X-ll test
are given below:
1. The test may not be completely reliable when the
variance of the irregular is very large or very small
relative to the variance of the seasonal. In such cases,
the user may find it necessary to examine I and S before
making a decision.
2. When the variance of the seasonal is sufficiently
small in absolute value or small relative to the variance
in the other systematic components (trend-cycle and
trading-day), there may be a case for not making a
seasonal adjustment even though the tests show that the
seasonal is significant relative to the irregular.
3. The existence of moving seasonality may reduce
the "between months" variance in the stable seasonality
test so that the test may find no evidence of stable
seasonality when in fact a pronounced seasonal pattern
is present.
4. Special problems arise when a series contains
discontinuities in the seasonal pattern or when parts of
a series contain no seasonal pattern. These conditions
may be ascertained by an inspection of the seasonal
factors and their charts. When a series contains an
abrupt change in the seasonal pattern, it is best to break
the series at the change and test and ad just the two parts
of the series separately. When the amount of seasonal
variation in a series has been declining over time, it
would be well to analyze only the most recent years and
to base decisions concerning adjustment of current data
on this analysis.
Tests for the Existence of
Trading-Day Variation
As part of the trading-day routine in X-ll, tests for the
existence of trading- day variation are provided as follows:
An F-test is performed to test for the significance of the
trading-day regression. If prior daily weights (or monthly
factors) are applied to the original series, this test determines the adequacy of the prior adjustment. If not, this
test determines the existence of trading- day variation in the
unadjusted data. In addition, t- tests are provided to determine whether each of seven computed daily weights is
significantly different from the corresponding prior weight
and/or 1.0 (no trading-day variation is represented by all
seven weights equal to 1.0). As an option, the user may make
the decision as to whether to apply the estimated weights
according to the value of the F- ratio.
Also, standard errors of the daily weights and monthly
adjustment factors are supplied to aid the user in assessing
the significance of trading-day variation.
It is to be noted that only a few of the innovations in X-ll
apply to the seasonal adjustment process itself. Most concern
prior adjustments of the data and add further measures for
analyzing and interpreting the seasonally adjusted series.
Experience in developing X-ll (and earlier variants of Census
Method II) has demonstrated that we find it difficult to make
improvements in our method of seasonal adjustment. We
feel that while X-ll has much to contribute to time series
analysis in the broad sense, it represents only a small step
forward so far as seasonal adjustment is concerned.
Highly irregular series may be more adequately adjusted
by X-ll because of the graduated treatment of extremes and
the choice of several moving averages to estimate the trendcycle. Revisions between preliminary and final seasonalfactor estimates for early years of a series have been
virtually eliminated in X-ll. Limited evidence indicates
that current-year revisions in X-ll are about the same as
those in X-9 and X-10. When widespread experience with
this variant is acquired by our staff and other users, a
systematic evaluation of these changes will be made.
VIII. DESCRIPTION OF THE
COMPUTER PRINTOUT
The computer program is divided into seven main parts,
as follows:
Part A - Adjustments for trading-day variation, holiday
variation, etc., (when supplied by the user) are applied
prior to the seasonal computations.
New Summary Measures
Part B - Preliminary estimates of internally computed
trading-day factors (when applicable) and weights for the
irregular component are estimated.
As a set of new summary measures, estimates of the percent contributions of S, C, I, TD and P to the variation in O
are given. For example, the percent contribution of S would
be
Part C - Final estimates of trading-day factors (when
applicable) and weights for the irregular component are
computed.
S2+C2+T2+fD2+P2
where S, C, T, TD and P are as defined in sections I and II.
The measures of average percent change without regard to
sign (I, C, etc.), which are computed over 1-month spans in
earlier _versions_pf ^Method II,_are now computed over longer
spans. O, CI, I, C, S, P and TD are computed and printed out
over 1- to 6- and?-, 9-, 11-, 12- month spans. Also, measures
of the average percent changes with regard to sign and the
standard deviations of the percent changes for O, I, C, S, CI
and MCD over the same spans are given to facilitate applications of statistical tests to the components. The I/C ratio
is now printed out for 1- to 12- month spans, although months
for cyclical dominance (MCD) is still designated as "6" when
I/C > 1.0 over the 5- month span as in earlier versions of
Method II.
VII. COMPARISON OF X-ll WITH
EARLIER VARIANTS OF METHOD II
The sample printout in section IX illustrates some of the
improvements introduced in X-ll. The trading-day routine
and the new tests and summary measures are shown for U.S.
General Imports.
Part D - Final estimates of the seasonal factors, seasonally adjusted series, and trend-cycle and irregular components are developed.
Part E - For analytical purposes, the original and seasonally adjusted series and the irregular component are
modified for extreme values. Also, the ratios (differences)
of annual totals and the month-to-month percent changes
(differences) in the original and seasonally adjusted series
are computed.
Part F - The MCD moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series and the X-ll summary measures are
calculated.
Part G - Point charts of the trend-cycle, seasonally
adjusted series, seasonal factors, and S-I ratios are
developed.
The sample printout shown in section IX is the standard
X-ll printout. Although all the computations described above
are performed (except part A, which is not applicable), only
the final estimates of the components and the analytical
tables are printed out.
61
IX. SAMPLE PRINTOUT
Shown below is the monthly X-11 multiplicative adjustment
of U.S. General Imports, 1953 to 1964, with the standard printout. Trading-day weights are computed internally. This
series is shown for purposes of illustration only. It is not
directly comparable to the official published series because
of the difference in the time periods of the adjustments and
because of prior strike adjustments which have been applied
to the official series.
To conserve space, only part of the trend-cycle and
seasonal-factor charts (Gl and G2) are shown. The complete
charts appear in the actual computer printout.
X-ll SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM
U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS DIVISION
SEPTEMBER 28?1965
THE X-ll PROGRAM IS DIVIDED INTO SEVEN MAJOR PARTS:
PART
DESCRIPTION
A. PRIOR ADJUSTMENTS? IF ANY
B. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF IRREGULAR COMPONENT WEIGHTS
AND REGRESSION TRADING DAY FACTORS
C. FINAL ESTIMATES OF ABOVE
D. FINAL ESTIMATES OF SEASONAL? TREND-CYCLE AND IRREGULAR COMPONENTS
E. ANALYTICAL TABLES
F. SUMMARY MEASURES
G. CHARTS
TABLES ARE IDENTIFIED BY THEIR PART LETTER AND SEQUENCE WITHIN THE PART. A GIVEN TABLE HAS THE SAME
IDENTIFICATION IN THE STANDARD? LONG AND FULL PRINTOUTS. THE SAME NUMBER IS GIVEN TO CORRESPONDING
TABLES IN PARTS B? C AND D. THUS? TABLES BIO.? CIO. AND D10. ARE ALL TABLES OF SEASONAL FACTORS.
WHERE NO CORRESPONDING TABLE EXISTS THE SEQUENCE NO. IS NOT USED IN THE PART. THUS? B8. AND D8. ARE
TABLES OF UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS BUT THERE IS NO C8.
THIS SERIES RUN AUG 1965
SERIES TITLE- U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
PERIOD COVERED- 1/53 TO 12/64
SERIES NO.
X746
TYPE OF RUN - MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
STANDARD PRINTOUT. STANDARD CHARTS.
TRADING DAY REGRESSION COMPUTED STARTING 1953 EXCLUDING IRREGULAR VALUES OUTSIDE 2.5-SIGMA LIMITS.
TRADING DAY REGRESSION ESTIMATES APPLIED STARTING 1953 IF SIGNIFICANT.
SIGMA LIMITS FOR GRADUATING EXTREME VALUES ARE 1.5 AND 2.5
62
AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1. ORIGINAL SERIES
YEAR
JAN
MAR
FEB
JUN
APR
AUG
JUL
MAY
SEP
1953
922.4
855.9 1004.2 1013.1
901.9
839. b
908.1
933.0
925.7
1954
832.8
808.8
864.6
946-9
824.8
821.8
829.2
957.2
780.4
1955
871.2
849.9 1019.3
871.1
959.3
936.8
885.3
960.6
947.1
1956
1073.3 1051.2 1102.1
1094.8 1033.8 1051.6 1055.3
991.3
995.2
1957
1114.8
992.9 1132.6 1118.7 1105.8
986.0 1147.8 1042.7 1007.4
1958
1095.9
955.9 1071.7 1056.9 1060.9 1031.1 1049.1
950.1 1073.4
1959
1154.1 1118.6 1295.1 1220.9 1264.2 1369.8 1250.0 1187.8 1395.3
1174.1 1329.4 1409.7 1293.8 1289.4 1332.0 1182.7 1258.5 1192.7
1960
1961
1149.7 1067.7 1255.3 1063.0 1222.9 1232.1 1287.0 1252.1 1197.2
1962
1367.6 1213.0 1380.8 1334.0 1453.1 1348.7 1333.6 1356.8 1341.5
1963
1116.2 1385.4 1462.5 1454.2 1458.9 1355.9 1502.1 1459.7 1398.3
1964
1444.5 1336.8 1590.2 1560.6 1455.7 1593.7 1610.7 1491.0 1561.8
AVGE
1109.7 1080.5
TABLE TOTAL:
1215.7 1161.2
168045 .8
1174.7
MEAN:
1175.0
1167.0
1139.9
1169.1
1151.3
STD. DEVIATION:
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
C14. EXTREME IRREGULAR VALUES EXCLUDED FROM TRADING DAY REGRESSION
(OUTSIDE 2.5-SIGMA LIMIT)
YEAR
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
1953
******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
109.7
1954
******* *******
93.4 ******* *******
109.4 ******* ******* *******
1955
******* ******* *******
91.4 ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
1956
******* ******* *******
91.9 ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
ULC
9O6.6
942.6
1008.0
10b8.6
1142.4
1253.5
14bt>.9
1174.5
1294.2
1359.4
1528.5
1755.0
1185.8
12*+0.b
TOTAL
10873.3
10215.4
11384.4
12614.9
12982-4
12834.5
15207.2
15017.5
14713.8
16379.8
17138.0
18684.7
P. 2t SEKIES
OCT
*******
*******
*******
*******
NOV
UtC
******* *******
******* *******
*******
91.1
******* *******
AVGE
********
********
********
********
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
********
********
********
********
********
********
********
1964
******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
********
SUM OF
SQUARES
DGRS.OF
FREEDOM
******* *******
******* *******
111.4
89.4
******* *******
******* *******
102.3 *******
******* *******
X746
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
SOURCE OF
VARIANCE
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
1200.0
223.6
NOV
849.2
839.7
1064.9
986.7
1043.2
1085.6
1283.0
1196.7
1335.0
1449.2
1425.0
1671.7
*******
*******
*******
88.5
*******
*******
82.4
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN
FINAL TRADING DAY REGRESSION
REGRESSION
COMBINED
PRIOR
COEFF.
WEIGHT
WEIGHT
1. 000
.565
1.565
MONDAY
1.000
.402
1.402
TUESDAY
.156
1.156
1.000
WEDNESDAY
.317
1.000
1.317
THURSDAY
.178
1.178
1.
000
FRIDAY
1.000
-.900
• 100
SATURDAY
-.717
1. 000
.283
SUNDAY
*
COMBINED WT. SIGNIFICANTLY
** COMBINED WT. SIGNIFICANTLY
*******
*******
*******
*******
106.8
*******
*******
OCT
813.4
766.6
1010.9
1121.0
1148.1
1150.4
1201.5
1184.0
1357.6
1442.1
1591.3
1613.0
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
C15.
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
109.0
P. 1»
3i SEKIES
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
X746
T
T
ST. ERROR
(PRIOR WT.)
(1)
(COMB.WT. )
4.170**
4. 170*
.135
3.049*
3.049**
.132
1 .175
• 133
1. 175
2.327
2.327
.136
1 .259
1.259
• 141
-6 .574**
.137
-6.574*
-5. 114*
-5 .114**
• 140
DIFFERENT FROM 1 AT 1% LEVEL
DIFFERENT FROM PRIOR WEIGHT AT 1% LEVEL
MEAN
SQUARE
F
15.468
45.811***
6.
92 • 808
REGRESSION
.338
125.
42 .206
ERROR
TOTAL
135.014
131.
*** RESIDUAL TRADING DAY VARIATION PRESENT AT THE 158 LEVEL
STANDARD ERRORS OF TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS DERIVED FROM REGRESSION
31-DAY MONTHS:
.^2
30-DAY MONTHS:
29-DAY MONTHS:
28-DAY MONTHS:
.43
.47
.00
COEFFICIENTS
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
C16. TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS DERIVED FROM REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS
FRI
THUR
C16A. REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS - MON
TUE
WED
1.565
1.402
1.156
1.317
1.178
C16B. REGRESSION TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS
AUG
JUN
JUL
MAR
YEAR
JAN
FEB
APR
MAY
95.4
96.6
100.8
103.2
98.7
102.1
99.1
101.6
1953
100.8
96.6
101.9
98.7
99.1
103.6
1954
95.4
101.6
100.8
103.6
102.8
101.6
95.4
96.6
99.1
1955
97.6
102.1
100.8
98.7
102.8
97.6
100.8
103.2
99.5
1956
103.6
98.7
95.4
102.1
94-6
1957
102.8
99.1
103.2
98.7
99.5
102.8
95.4
101.9
1958
96.6
102.1
99.1
96.6
100.8
95.4
103.2
102.1
98.7
1959
99.1
101.6
103.6
102.8
100.8
95.4
101.6
104.7
95.4
97.6
1960
102.8
96.6
103.6
1961
102.1
101.6
100.8
99.1
94.6
102.1
100.8
102.8
98.7
97.6
1962
103.6
99.1
99.5
98.7
102.1
94.6
103.6
102.8
95.4
103.2
1963
99.1
102.1
96.6
95.4
100.8
102.1
103.2
99.5
1964
101.6
SEP
101.9
101.6
101.6
94.6
99.5
103.2
101.9
101.6
97.6
94.6
99.5
101.9
OCT
98.7
95.4
96-6
103.6
102.8
102.1
98.7
96.6
100.8
103.6
102.8
98.7
NOV
99.5
103.2
101.9
101.6
97.6
94.6
99.5
101.9
101.6
101.6
97.6
99.5
DEC
102.8
102.1
98.7
96.6
100.8
103.6
102.8
98.7
95-4
96.6
100.8
102.8
AVGE
100.0
100.0
99.7
100.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.7
100.1
100.0
100.3
TABLE TOTAL:
14401.1
C16C. REGRESSION TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS* ONE YEAR AHEAD
YEAR
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
1965
95.4
99.1
103.6
101.6
96.6
101.9
98.7
SEP
101.6
OCT
95.4
NOV
103.2
DEC
102.1
AVGE
100.0
AUG
100.8
4* SERIES
SAT
.100
SUN
.283
63
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF
GULAR COMPONENT
FINAL WEIGHTS FOR IRREGULAR
GRADUATION RANGE FROM
1
V 1.5 TO 2.5 SIGMA
JAN
FEB
MAR
JUL
YEAR
JUN
MAY
APR
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1953
100.0
1954
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
1955
100.0
100.0
100.0
21.2
100.0
100.0
1956
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
.0
1957
76.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
29.0
14.0
100.0
1958
100.0
100.0
100.0
100. C
100.0
100.0
100.0
1959
100.0
100.0
67.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
.0
1960
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1961
100.0
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1962
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
46.2
.0
100.0
100.0
1963
.0
100.0
100.0
1964
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
P. 5» SERIES
DOLLARS
AUG
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
87.9
100.0
SEP
.0
100.0
100.0
78.5
100.0
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
OCT
93.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
NOV
100.0
100.0
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
60.7
100.0
100.0
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
CIS. TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FROM COMBINED DAILY WEIGHTS
(SAME AS TABLE C16.)
C19.
YEAR
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
D 8. FINAL
YEAR
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
AVGE
1107.8 1080.3
TABLE TOTAL:
1219.3 1157.2
168009.8
1177.7
MEAN:
1175.3
1166.7
1164.1
1142.8
1153.3
STD. DEVIATION:
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS
AUG
SEP
MAY
JUL
MAR
JUN
JAN
FEB
APR
96.4
102.2
108.4
102.6
98.4
97.5
102.4
94.2
108.3
99.5
97.2
91.8
97.3
108.2
97.9
102.4
95.6
109.3
102.8
94.6
92.8
109.5
97.0
102.9
98.2
96.1
97.5
100.4
97.1
96.0
98.1
106.2
99. 1
101.0
96.7
94.5
99.8
110.7
101.9
95.9
97.3
93.4
102.3
100.3
94.0
93.8
96.3
106.5
103.6
97.3
101.8
99.9
99.6
92-1
105.5
105.3
95.4
95.3
105.6
99.8
104.1
94.5
97.0
103.7
98.7
98.0
96.5
98.4
102.5
92.5
95.6
101.1
98.1
96.9
106.8
100.6
101.7
109.6
99.2
93.9
96.9
98.4
105.0
103.8
97.7
104.0
101.8
99.4
91.5
98.9
101.4
96.0
100.3
100.0
109.1
99.7
78.2
100.0
99.6
98.4
96.7
101.5
105.6
100.0
100.2
90.8
101.7
96.3
98.2
94.6
TABLE TOTAL:
100.4
106.1
14396- 4
101.5
100.8
99.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
6t SERIES
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ADJUSTED* ORIGINAL SERIES
*ADJUSTED BY... TRADING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS DERIVED FROM REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
863.5
934.6
997.4
945.8
996.2
903.9
889.4
869.3
908.8
824.2
834.4
873.3
858.3
816-0
941.7
832.7
929.6
818.2
768.3
803.9
901.8
857.5
991.3
951.7
892.6
922.3
928.4
927.1
931.7 1046.4
1064.7 1018.5 1116.7
996.4 1064.8 1059.3 1043.2 1033.6 1051.9 1081.8
1084.2 1001.8 1187.7 1083.8 1083.1 1042.2 1107.7 1056.5 1012.5 1116.6
1073.4
964.4 1109.3 1037.6 1074.9 1036.4 1020.3
996.3 1039.9 1126.8
1169.4 1128.6 1284.8 1202.0 1325.7 1327.1 1224.3 1229.5 1369.9 1217.4
1231.2 1270.3 1371.0 1325.7 1279.1 1311.3 1240.3 1214.5 1173.4 1225.6
1140.5 1077.2 1229.5 1123.5 1180.2 1212.1 1332.2 1217.8 1226.7 1346.8
1319.8 1223.8 1399.1 1340.8 1413.3 1381.9 1323.0 1328.9 1417.9 1391.7
1085.6 1397.8 1533.7 1408.8 1428.9 1433.1 1449.6 1479.0 1405.4 1547.7
1414.8 1343.9 1577.5 1536.4 1526.5 1544.0 1577.6 1543.4 1533.3 1634.3
AVGE
S.D.
UEC
100.0
100.0
.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
70.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
97.1
97.6
P. 7» SERIES
NOV
853.5
813.5
1045.5
970.7
1068.9
1147.4
1289.6
1174.9
1314.3
1425.7
1460.1
1680.2
DEC
881.7
923.2
1021.3
1095.8
1133.3
1209.7
1426.7
1190.0
1357.2
1407.1
1516.3
1706.9
1196.9
220.3
1187.0
1239.1
OCT
94.0
95.9
102.0
101.6
103.5
102.1
93.3
102.8
104.5
102.7
105.6
101.8
NOV
98.6
96.0
100.3
91.6
99.8
101.8
98.1
100.2
100.8
104.4
99.7
103.4
DEC
102.9
107.3
97.1
103.6
106.7
105.2
107.7
102.8
103.1
102-1
103.5
103.9
100.8
99.6
103.8
TOTAL
J10868.4
J10213.2
]
11417.5
]12597.4
J12978.3
J12836.6
J15194.8
J15007.4
]14758.1
]16373.1
J17146.1
J18618.9
P. 8t SERIES
X746
AVGE
100.5
99.9
99.2
98.8
100.5
100.0
100.1
99.4
101.0
100.8
99.4
100.0
STABLE SEASONALITY TEST
BETWEEN MONTHS
RESIDUAL
SUM OF
SQUARES
1235.000
1936.703
DGRS • OF
FREEDOM
11
132
MEAN
SQUARE
112.273
14.672
F
7.652**
**STABLE SEASONALITY PRESENT AT THE 1% LEVEL
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
D 9. FINAL REPLACEMENT VALUES FOR EXTREME SI RATIOS
YEAR
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
AUG
JUN
JAN
JUL
SEP
******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
1953
94.8
100* 8 *******
1 954
*******
******* ******* *******
102.7 ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
1955
******* ******* *******
102.3 ******* ******* ******* *******
1956
97.3
******* *******
109*8 ******* *******
1957
99 . 1
97 • 9
******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
1958
******* ******* ******* *******
96.6
104.2 ******* ******* *******
1959
99.7 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
1960
*******
******* *******
99.1
1961
******* ******* ******* ******* *******
*******
******* *******
97.1
1962
******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
*******
90.9
107.0 *******
97.6
101.0 *******
1963
******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *******
1964
P. 9« SERIES
OCT
NOV
DEC
94.3 ******* *******
*******
105.2
*******
*******
97.8 *******
*******
103.0
*******
*******
*******
*******
******* *******
*******
106.7
******* *******
*******
*******
103.1 *******
******* *******
******* *******
*******
D 9A. YEAR TO YEAR CHANGE IN IRREGULAR AND SEASONAL COMPONENTS AND MOVING SEASONALITY RATIO
JUN
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
MAY
.859
2.504
1.578
1.373
1.181
1.636
2.250
2.395
1.626
2.059
2.521
I
.395
.286
.310
.263
.365
.429
.313
.698
.269
.337
.544
S
2.18
9.53
4.80
4.40
4.45
5.09
7.49
3.81
7.20
3.43
3.79
RATIO
64
DEC
1.844
.242
7.63
X746
AVGE
********
********
********
********
********
** *****
** *****
** *****
** *****
** *****
********
D10.
FINAL
YEAR
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
SEASONAL
JAN
102.2
102.3
102.2
101.9
101.6
101.1
100.5
100.0
99.3
98.7
98.1
97.9
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
FACTORS
FEB
MAR
JUN
APR
JUL
AUG
MAY
95.4
108.1
101.4
106.0
99.0
97.3
96.0
95.5
108.2
101.2
105.5
99.0
97.3
96.1
95.4
108.2
104.4
101.1
99.1
97.3
96.0
95.0
108.0
101.4
102.6
99.4
97.2
95.8
94.8
107.3
101.1
101.5
100.0
97.1
95.7
94.5
106.8
101.5
99.8
100.7
97.2
96.0
94.0
106.0
101.6
99.3
101.3
97.4
96.4
93.6
105.7
98.8
101.6
101.7
97.7
97.1
93.1
105.3
101.4
99.0
101.6
98.3
97.9
92.6
105.5
101.1
99.2
101.3
99.0
98.7
91.8
105.5
99.5
101.0
100.8
99.5
99.0
91.4
105.6
99.5
101.2
100.7
99.6
99.0
TABLE TOTAL:
14408.8
D10A.
SEASONAL FACTORS* ONE YEAR AHEAD
YEAR
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
1965
97.8
91.2
105.6
99.5
MEAN:
100.1
MAY
101.3
JUN
100.6
P.10» SERIES
SEP
93.7
93.9
94.2
94.5
95.2
95.8
96.3
96.5
96.7
96.7
96.6
96.6
STD. DEVIATION:
DEC
104.8
104.9
105.3
105.5
105.4
105.2
104.7
104.3
103.6
103.4
103.1
103.1
AVGE
100.0
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.0
100.1
100.0
100.0
DEC
103.1
AVGE
100.0
3.7
OCT
103.5
NOV
101.8
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Dll. FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES
YEAR
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
JUN
MAY
JUL
AUG
SEP
914.3
904.9
941.1
921.3
1953
912.6
933.1
914.0
905.7
970.0
1954
853.9
854.5
848.1
771.0
938.6
855.6
851.8
818.6
893.0
1955
916.6
941.1
882.2
899.1
855.2
930.5
954.0
965.8
989.6
1956
1044.4 1072.2 1034.4
971.1
1050.4 1065.7 1073.8 1079.4 1112.9
1957
1067.4 1057.0 1107.0 1071.8 1067.3 1042.2 1140.9 1103.8 1063.6
1958
1062.0 1021.1 1039.2 1039.5 1058.7 1029.3 1050.1 1038.2 1085.9
1959
1163.2 1200.3 1212.4 1211.0 1305.3 1309.6 1256.8 1274.9 1423.2
1231.8 1357.3 1297.6 1342.0 1258.6 1289.6 1269.1 1250.2 1216.4
1960
1961
1149.1 1157.2 1167.7 1135.0 1163.8 1192.9 1355.0 1243.8 1269.1
1337.5 1322.3 1325.9 1351.8 1397.9 1364.8 1336.7 1347.0 1466.7
1962
1963
1106.2 1522.1 1453.2 1415.7 1414.6 1421.4 1457.1 1494.6 1454.4
1444.9 1469.9 1493.8 1543.6 1508.1 1533.9 15R4.1 1558.4 1587.9
1964
OCT
841.7
816.1
1049.9
1071.1
1094.0
1095.9
1181.8
1185.5
1302.3
1342.5
1494.5
1579.3
NOV
869.6
827.6
1059.1
978.9
1074.2
1149.4
1286.6
1169.2
1303.1
1408.7
1435.8
1650.7
DEC
841.2
879.8
970.3
1038.8
1074.8
1149.9
1362.6
1141.5
1310.2
1361.4
1470.0
1655.6
1171.2
216.4
1184.4
1188.0
D12.
1104.8 1153.2
TABLE TOTAL:
1145.0 1147.6
167926.3
1162.3
MEAN:
1169.3
1166.2
AUG
99.1
NOV
98.2
98.3
98.7
99.2
99.5
99.8
100.2
100.5
100.9
101.2
101.7
101.8
SEP
96.5
AVGE
JUL
99.6
OCT
97.9
98.5
99.7
101.0
102.1
102.8
103.0
103.4
103.4
103.7
103.6
103.5
1187.2
1176.1
1204.9
STD. DEVIATION:
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
FINAL TREND CYCLE - HENDERSON CURVE
I/C RATIO IS 1.92
13-TERM MOVING AVERAGE SELECTED.
JUL
AUG
SEP
JUN
JAN
FEB
APR
MAY
YEAR
MAR
913.4
899.7
884.5
922.9
925.7
922.3
916.3
919.9
925.2
1953
851.0
839.8
832.7
1954
862.5
867.2
861.6
867.0
852.6
856.6
956.1
978.5 1003.2
938.1
908.5
926.0
877.9
895.1
917.6
1955
1056.0 1053.8 1050.9 1051.6 1057.6 1066.5 1074.3 1078.2 1076.0
1956
1059.4 1063.6 1070.5 1076.9 1081.2 1083.8 1085.7 1087.5 1087.4
1957
1079.0
1958
1054.4 1046.4 1040.4 1037.1 1036.8 1039.8 1047.6 1060.5
1172.0 1195.1 1218.5 1241.0 1260.8 1275.0 1283.2 1288.2 1294.2
1959
1332.8 1331.3 1324.1 1312.2 1297.0 1280.2 1261.7 1239.7 1215.3
1960
1148.6 1146.4 1149.6 1158.0 1172.3 1192.8 1217.7 1244.6 1270.1
1961
1324.3 1334.7 1345.1 1354.1 1359.0 1359.4 1357.0 1354.4 1353.0
1962
1384.2 1393.3 1403.0 1413.6 1426.3 1440.1 1452.8 1462.7 1467.4
1963
1964
1464.7 1476.0 1492.5 1511.3 1528.8 1543.2 1556.7 1571.0 1588.7
AVGE
D13.
FINAL
YEAR
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
S.D.
1136.9 1142.7
TABLE TOTAL:
1149.0 1155.5
168028.7
1161.6
MEAN:
1166.9
1166.9
1171.4
1175.4
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF
IRREGULAR SERIES
JUL
JUN
MAR
APR
JAN
FEB
MAY
100.8
99.8
100.1
99.0
99.8
98.4
101.7
97.8
108.9
100.5
100.2
99.8
89.4
103.0
99.8
101.6
100.9
100.5
100.4
93.2
99.2
99.9
99.9
99.3
98.9
101.7
98.4
92.3
105.1
100.8
99.4
98.7
96.2
103.4
99.5
100.2
99.9
99.0
100.7
97.6
102.1
100.2
97.9
103.5
102.7
99.2
100.4
99.5
97.6
100.6
97.0
100.7
102.3
92.4
102.0
98.0
111.3
100.0
101.6
99.3
98.0
100.0
100.9
102.9
98.5
100.4
98.6
99.8
101.0
99.1
100.3
99.2
100.2
98.7
103.6
79.9
109.2
101.8
99.4
98.6
98.7
99.6
102.1
100.1
6.2
2.9
TABLE TOTAL:
3.5
14388 .8
3.4
2.0
MEAN:
3.0
99.9
1179.3
STD. DEVIATION:
3.7
1141.1 1070.7
TABLE TOTAL:
1224.2 1168.1
168263 .3
1174.7
MEAN:
1168.5
1168,5
1158.3
OCT
869.9
833.9
1026.4
1069.1
1083.6
1102.7
1302.4
1191.2
1290.6
1355.9
1466.1
1607.3
NOV
859.0
843.4
1044.0
1062.3
1075.0
1127.4
1314.4
1171.3
1304.4
1363.6
1462.0
1626.0
DEC
853.0
859.1
1053.9
1058.8
1064.4
1150.1
1326.5
1156.5
1314.6
1374.2
1460.5
1641.3
1183.3
211.2
1187.7
1192.7
S.D.
3.1
4.3
3.2
3.4
2.3
1.3
4.4
2.6
3.4
2.9
6.6
1.2
NOV
101.2
98.1
101.5
92.1
99.9
102.0
97.9
99.8
99.9
103.3
98.2
101.5
DEC
98.6
102.4
92.1
98.1
101.0
100.0
102.7
98.7
99.7
99.1
100.7
100.9
1.2
4.9
3.1
3.5
2.8
2.7
OCT
813.4
766.6
1010.9
1121.0
1148.1
1150.4
1324.1
1184.0
1357.6
1442.1
1591.3
1613.0
NOV
849.2
839.7
1064.9
1070.8
1043.2
1085.6
1283.0
1196.7
1335.0
1449.2
1425.0
1671.7
DEC
906.6
942.6
1094.9
1058.6
1142.4
1253.5
1466.9
1174.5
1294.2
1359.4
1528.5
1755.0
1210.2
222.6
1192.8
1248.1
1125.3
TOTAL
10811.7
10227.4
11525.3
12755.1
12918.9
12822.2
15171.2
15113.3
14609.7
16234.5
17232.0
18607.4
X746
OCT
96.8
97.9
102.3
100.2
101.0
99.4
90.7
99.5
100.9
99.0
101.9
98.3
1139.9
X746
P. 13. SERIES
SEP
109.7
98.3
98.6
103.4
97.8
100.6
110.0
100.1
99.9
108.4
99.1
99.9
STD. DEVIATION:
X746
TOTAL
10869.6
10208.6
11413.4
12593.2
12963.9
12819.1
15187.6
15008.9
14749.2
16363.2
17139.6
18610.2
P.12» SERIES
AUG
100.7
101.4
98.7
100.1
101.5
97.9
99.0
100.8
99.9
99.5
102.2
99.2
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
E 1. ORIGINAL SERIES MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES
JUL
AUG
SEP
JUN
MAR
MAY
APR
JAN
FEB
YEAR
908.1
839.8
844.0
901.9
933.0
922.4
855.9 1004.2 1013.1
1953
821.8
824.8
780.4
869.2
829.2
832.8
808.8
967.2
957.2
1954
885.3
960.6
947.1
936.8
959.3
871.1
871.2
849.9 1019.3
1955
995.2
1073.3 1051.2 1102.1 1073.5 1094.8 1033.8 1051.6 1055.3
1956
1007.4
986.0 1147.8 1042.7
1114.8
992.9 1132.6 1118.7 1105.8
1957
950.1
1073.4
1095.9
955.9 1C71.7 1056.9 1060.9 1031.1 1049.1
1958
1154.1 1118.6 1295.1 12P.0.9 1264.2 1369.8 1250.0 T187.8 1268.8
1959
1270.3 1329.4 1409.7 1293.8 1289.4 1332.0 1182.7 1258.5 1192.7
1960
1149.7 1067.7 1255.3 1063.0 1222.9 1232.1 1156.5 1252.1 1197.2
1961
1367.6 1213.0 1380.8 1334.0 1453.1 1348.7 1333.6 1356.8 1237.5
1962
1396.7 1268.2 1462.5 1454.2 1458.9 1355.9 1502.1 1459.7 1398.3
1963
1444.5 1336.8 1590.2 1560.6 1455.7 1593.7 1610.7 1491.0 1561.8
1964
AVGE
P. 11. SERIES
DOLLARS
STD. DEVIATION:
X746
P. 14. SERIES
X746
TOTAL
10791.6
10240.3
11471.3
12781.1
12982.4
12834.5
15203.3
15113.7
14583.3
16275.8
17301.3
18684.7
65
AUG 1965 U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2. MODIFIED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES
JAN
FEB
YEAR
MAR
MAY
JUN
APR
AUG
SEP
JUL
941.1
914.3
904.9
921-3
1953
905.7
933.1
912.6
914.0
884.5
853.9
1954
862.5
848.1
851.8
854.5
893.0
861.6
855.6
818.6
882.2
899.1
916.6
941.1
965.8
1955
855.2
930.5
954.0
989.6
1044.4 1072.2 1034.4 1051.6 1050.4 1065.7 1073.8 1079.4 1112.9
1956
1957
1067.4 1057.0 1107.0 1071.8 1067.3 1042.2 1140.9 1103.8 1063.6
1958
1062.0 1021.1 1039.2 1039.5 1058.7 1029.3 1050.1 1038.2 10A5.9
1959
1163.2 1200.3 1212.4 1211.0 1305.3 1309.6 1256.8 1274.9 1294.2
1332.8 1357.3 1297.6 1342.0 1258.6 1289.6 1269.1 1250.2 1216.4
1960
1149.1 1157.2 1167.7 1135.0 1163.8 1192.9 1217.7 1243.8 1269.1
1961
1337.5 1322.3 1325.9 1351.8 1397.9 1364.8 1336.7 1347.0 1353.0
1962
1384.2 1393.3 1453.2 1415.7 1414.6 1421.4 1457.1 1494.6 1454.4
1963
1444.9 1469.9 1493.8 1543.6 1508.1 1533.9 1584.1 1558.4 1587.9
1964
AVGE
1136.3 1142.4
TABLE TOTAL:
1152.6 1154.3
168093 .4
1162.3
MEAN:
1162.8
1167.3
1175.8
S.D.
.7
1.2
TABLE TOTAL:
1.7
14402.2
2.5
2.0
MEAN:
1.5
NOV
869.6
827.6
1059.1
1062.3
1074.2
1149.4
1286.6
1169.2
1303.1
1408.7
1435.8
1650.7
841.2
879.8
1053.9
1038.8
1074.8
1149.9
1362.6
1141.5
1310.2
1361.4
1470.0
1655.6
1177.5
1181.3
213.5
1191.4
1195.0
P-16t SERIES
X746
AUG
100.7
101.4
98.7
100.1
101.5
97.9
99.0
100.8
99.9
99.5
102.2
99.2
SEP
100.0
98.3
98.6
103.4
97.8
100.6
100.0
100.1
99.9
100.0
99.1
99.9
OCT
96.8
97.9
102.3
100.2
101.0
99.4
100.0
99.5
100.9
99.0
101.9
98.3
NOV
101.2
98.1
101.5
100.0
99.9
102.0
97.9
99.8
99.9
103.3
98.2
101.5
DEC
98.6
102.4
100.0
98.1
101.0
100.0
102.7
98.7
99.7
99.1
100.7
100.9
S.D.
1.3
1.7
2.3
1.4
2.3
1.3
1.9
1.5
.9
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.4
1176.1
1.7
DOLLARS
STD. DEVIATION:
100.0
OCT
X746
841.7
816.1
1049.9
1071.1
1094.0
1095.9
1302.4
1185.5
1302.3
1342.5
1494.5
1579.3
STD. DEVIATION:
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF
MODIFIED IRREGULAR SERIES
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
JUN
YEAR
MAY
JUL
99.8
100.8
99.8
99.0
98.4
101.7
100.1
1953
97.8
1954
100.0
100.2
99.8
103.0
100.0
100.5
100.9
99.8
100.5
101.6
99.2
1955
100.4
93.2
98.4
99.9
1956
98.9
101.7
100.0
99.3
99.9
100.8
103.4
98.7
1957
99.4
96.2
105.1
99.5
99.9
1958
100.7
102.1
99.0
100.2
97.6
100.2
1959
99.5
103.5
99.2
100.4
97.6
97.9
102.7
1960
100.0
98.0
97.0
100.6
102.0
102.3
100.7
101.6
99.3
1961
100.9
98.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.9
98.6
1962
99.1
99.8
100.4
98.5
101.0
103.6
99.2
1963
100.0
100.0
100.2
98.7
100.3
1964
99.4
98.7
98.6
101.8
99.6
100.1
102.1
P.lSi SERIES
DEC
TOTAL
10784.1
10223.1
11497.0
12757.1
12963.9
12819.1
15179.1
15109.9
14611.8
16249.5
17288.8
18610.2
P. 17. SERIES
E 4.
YEAR
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
E 5. MONTH-TO-MONTH
JAN
YEAR
*******
1953
-8.1
1954
-7.6
1955
6.5
1956
5.3
1957
-4.1
1958
-7.9
1959
-20.0
1960
-2.1
1961
5.7
1962
-17.9
1963
1964
-5.5
AVGE
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
CHANGES IN ORIGINAL SERIES
JUN
AUG
MAY
JUL
APR
FEB
MAR
-7.5
3.4
-2.7
17.3
.9
-11.0
-7.2
.4
-13.4
14.2
-13.2
6.9
10.7
-2.9
8.5
-5.5
19.9
10.1
-2.3
-14.5
-2.4
.4
4.8
10.4
1.7
-5.6
-10.1
-2.1
-9.2
16.4
-1.2
-10.8
-10.9
14.1
-1.2
-9.4
.4
-2.8
-1.4
1.7
-12.8
12.1
-5.0
3.5
-8.7
15.8
8.4
-5.7
-3.1
6.4
-.3
-11.2
3.3
-8.2
6.0
13.2
-2.7
.8
4.5
15.0
17.6
-15.3
-7.1
1.7
8.9
13.8
-1. 1
-3.4
-7.2
-11.3
-2.8
10.8
.3
-7.1
5.6
-.6
24.1
-7.4
-6.7
9.5
1.1
-1.9
19.0
-7.5
-5.1
-2.5
TABLE TOTAL:
12.7
122.0
AUG 1965
U. S.
E 6. MONTH-TO-MONTH CHANGES IN FINAL
MAR
FEB
JAN
YEAR
1.8
-1.0
1953
*******
-9.8
1.5
.1
1954
1.9
1.9
.3
1955
-3.5
2.7
7.6
1956
4.7
2.7
-1.0
1957
1.8
-3.9
1958
-1.2
1.0
3.2
1.2
1959
-4.4
-9.6
10.2
1960
.9
.7
.7
1961
.3
2.1
-1.1
1962
-4.5
-18.7
37.6
1963
1.6
-1.7
1.7
1964
AVGE
66
X746
RATIOS OF ANNUAL TOTALS* ORIGINAL AND ADJUSTED SERIES
UNMODIFIED
MODIFIED
100.0
100.1
100.1
100.2
99.7
99.8
100.2
100.2
100.1
100.1
100.1
100-1
100.1
100.2
100.1
100.0
99.8
99.8
100.1
100-2
100.0
100.1
100.4
100.4
-1.4
4.3
TABLE TOTAL:
-.7
88.3
-4.2
1.4
.3
-.5
-2.2
GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES (DID
AUG
JUL
JUN
APR
MAY
-.9
-.8
-2.2
.2
2.1
-.4
-8.8
-5.0
10.7
15.8
1.2
2.5
10.0
-1.1
-6.7
.5
.8
1.5
8.2
-6.1
-3.3
-2.4
9.5
-.4
-3.2
-1.1
1.8
-2.8
2.0
.0
1.4
7.8
.3
-4.0
-.1
-1.5
-6.2
2.5
-1.6
3.4
-8.2
2.5
2.5
13.6
-2.8
.8
-2.4
-2.1
3.4
2.0
2.6
-.1
.5
2.5
-2.6
-1.6
3.3
-2.3
1.7
3.3
.4
1.6
.7
1.5
-.9
P. 18. SERIES
SEP
OCT
NOV
4.4
9.5
5.3
DEC
6.8
10.2
-5.4
-1.4
-5.7
-3.4
13.0
17.5
-5.2
-4.4
-1.1
-4.2
-12.1
-1.8
4.7
3.3
3.6
7.3
5.0
1.2
4.2
-.6
5.1
SEP
7.1
-3.9
2.5
3.1
-3.6
4.6
11.6
-2.7
2.0
8.9
-2.7
1.9
OCT
-13.2
-.3
6.1
-3.8
2.9
•9
-17.0
-2.5
2.6
-8.5
2.8
-.5
NOV
3.3
1.4
.9
-8.6
-1.8
4.9
8.9
-1.4
.1
4.9
-3.9
4.5
DEC
-3.3
6.3
-8.4
6.1
.1
.0
5.9
-2.4
.5
-3.4
2.4
5.0
1.1
.7
6.7
12.6
14.0
7.2
-13.9
-12.0
-9.1
-5.6
-.7
6.8
1.1
13.4
-1.7
7.5
13.8
.5
-10.5
12.3
-5.3
7.3
9.5
15.5
14.3
-1.9
-3.1
-6.2
P. 19.
2.4
-2.5
X746
AVGE
.2
.8
1.0
.7
1.1
1.1
1.8
-1.5
1.2
.7
1.6
1.4
X746
AVGE
-.6
.6
.9
.7
.4
.6
1.7
-1.4
1.3
•4
1.3
1.4
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
F 1. MCD MOVING AVERAGE
MCD IS 4
YEAR
JAN
FEB
MAR
JUN
APR
MAY
JUL
AUG
SEP
1 QCTt
1 V-O
925 . 6 907 • 9
920 • 4 925 • 1 927 .0
916.4
1954
854.8
843.1
862.7
866.1
830.2
883.8
835.5
841.6
873.5
894.4
1955
872.2
910.9
888.3
903.0
920.2
989.8
947.8
960.0
1956
1036.5 1030.3 1030.5 1032.0 1030.4 1040.3 1067.3 1083.0 1084.3
1957
1035.5 1067.6 1075.8 1075.8 1072.1 1080.5 1088.6 1087.6 1100.6
1958
1058.0 1049.2 1040.4 1039.6 1041.7 1044.4 1044.1 1050.9 1067.5
1959
1165.7 1181.4 1196.7 1232.2 1259.6 1270.7 1286.6 1316.1 1284.2
1960
1309.6 1312.3 1307.2 1313.9 1297.0 1289.8 1266.9 1256.3 1230.3
1961
1154.3 1153.9 1152.2 1155.9 1164.8 1211.7 1238.9 1265.2 1292.6
1318.3 1324.0 1334.4 1349.5 1360.1 1362.8 1361.6 1378.8 1373.2
1962
1963
1349.6 1360.7 1374.3 1451.4 1426.2 1427.2 1446.9 1456.9 1475.1
1964
1455.2 1469.7 1488.1 1503.9 1519.8 1542.4 1546.1 1566.1 1577.4
AVGE
1146.3 1152.2
TABLE TOTAL:
1137.6 1152.0
164096 .0
1156.0
1166.6
1173.7
1184.4
1184.9
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
F 2. SUMMARY MEASURES
AVERAGE PER CENT CHANGE WITHOUT REGARD TO SIGN OVER INDICATED SPAN
SPAN
IN
Bl
Dll
D13
D12
D10
A2
C18
MONTHS
0
CI
I
C
S
P
TU*
1
7.46
3.84
3.62
.91
4.21
.00
4.14
2
6.90
4.26
3.49
1.80
4.66
.00
3.71
3
6.32
4.81
3.47
2.64
4.63
.00
2.07
4
8.09
5.25
3.17
3.45
5.10
.00
4.21
5
7.55
5.90
3.35
4.19
3.97
.00
3.23
6
7.71
6.32
3.35
4.90
4.48
.00
2.40
7
8.97
6.81
3.26
5.57
3.99
.00
4.16
9
8.79
7.93
3.33
6.84
4.57
.00
2.00
11
9.86
8.73
3.16
8.01
4.11
.00
2.89
12
9.89
9.47
3.73
8.55
.36
.00
2.71
P.20t SERIES
OCT
DEC
NOV
896 . 8 880 . 6 851.6
851.4
828.5
835.5
1016.1 1017.2 1030.9
1060.6 1050.4 1039.1
1083.9 1076.6 1076.2
1092.3 1120.3 1139.6
1291.6 1313.6 1265.7
1205.3 1178.2 1161.3
1279.6 1296.2 1313.3
1391.2 1394.8 1304.7
1469.8 1463.7 1461.3
1594.0 1618.4 *******
1184.2
1187.1
X746
TOTAL
9076 • 6
10206.9
11350.8
12584.7
12920.8
12788.0
15064.1
15128.1
14678.5
16253.3
17163.2
16881.0
1135.9
P.21f SERIES
El
MOD.O
6.73
6.68
6.32
7.70
7.22
7.89
8.65
8.91
10.23
«->.51
Fl
MCD
1.30
2.17
3.00
3.82
4.43
5.01
5.53
6.72
7.86
8.36
E2
MOD.CI
2.25
2.80
3.60
4.05
4.77
5.36
6.00
7.22
8.33
9.00
X746
E3
MOD. I
1.96
1.87
1.99
1.64
l.RO
1.73
1.73
1.72
1.55
2.04
RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF COMPONENTS TO VARIANCE IN ORIGINAL SERIES
SPAN
IN
D13
D12
DIG
A2
CIS
RATIO
MONTHS
I
C
S
P
TD*
TOTAL
(X100)
1
26.83
1.68
36.28
.00
35.21
100.00
87.71
2
23.89
6.36
42.71
.00
27.04
100.00 106.93
3
26.88
15.62
47.93
.00
9.57
100.00 111.96
4
15.34
18.09
39.59
-00
26.99
100.00 100.26
5
20.43
31.96
28.66
.00
18.94
100.00
96.69
6
18.39
39.34
32.85
.00
9.42
100.00 102.61
7
14.18
41.47
21.23
.00
23.12
100.00
93.03
9
13.40
56.58
25.19
.00
4.83
100.00 107.11
11
10.06
64.54
16.99
.00
8.41
100.00 102.42
12
14.71
77.38
.14
.00
7.77
100.00
96.58
AVERAGE DURATION OF RUN
CI
1.79
I
1.51
C
8.41
MCD
2.98
I/C RATIO FOR MONTHS SPAN
1
2
4.00
1.94
3
1.31
4
.92
5
.80
6
.68
MONTHS FOR CYCLICAL DOMINANCE
7
.58
8
.57
9
.49
10
.46
11
.39
12
.44
4
AVERAGE PER CENT CHANGE WITH REGARD TO SIGN AND STANDARD DEVIATION OVER
SPAN
Bl
D13
D12
D10
IN
0
I
C
S
MONTHS
AVGE
S.D.
AVGE
S.D.
AVGE
S.D.
AVGE
1
.85
9.03
.17
5.79
.41
1.03
.15
2
1.30
8.75
.18
5.47
.84
2.03
.20
3
1.59
8.06
.15
5.23
1.26
2.99
.17
4
2.09
10.02
.15
5.23
1.69
3.89
.14
5
2.39
9.20
.12
5.05
2.13
4.72
.06
6
2.84
9.61
.15
5.23
2.57
5.49
.10
7
3.38
10.63
.14
5.15
3.02
6.21
.09
9
4.24
10.76
.08
5.24
3.96
7.49
.19
11
5.25
11.39
.08
5.11
4.94
8.55
.19
12
5.62
11.01
.10
5.34
5.44
9.00
.00
INDICATED SPAN
Dll
CI
S.D.
AVGE
S.D.
5.53
.58
5.93
5.36
li02
5.95
5.42
Ii42
6.15
6.00
1.85
6.69
5.01
2.25
7.04
5.73
2i 72
7.66
5.03
3.16
8.10
5.30
4.03
9.13
5.16
5i01
9.86
5.52
10.31
.47
Fl
MCD
AVGE
.42
.83
1.25
1.69
2.12
2.55
3.00
3.93
4.91
5.44
S.D.
1.64
2.55
3.43
4.30
4.92
5.58
6.20
7.32
8.21
8.58
*(TRAD ING DAY ADJUSTMENT FACTORS WITHOUT LENGTH OF MONTH ADJUSTMENT)
67
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1. CHART
(X) - Dll. FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES
(0) - D12. FINAL TREND CYCLE
(*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS
SCALE-SEMI-LOG HALF CYCLE
771.
1157.
1542.
JAN57
FEB57
MAR57
APR57
MAY57
JUN57
JUL57
AUG57
SEP57
OCT57
NOV57
DEC57
JAN58
FEB58
MAR58
APR58
MAY58
JUN58
JUL58
AUG58
SEP58
OCT58
NOV58
DEC58
JAN59
FEB59
MAR59
APR59
MAY59
JUN59
JUL59
AUG59
SEP59
OCT59
NOV59
DEC59
JAN60
FEB60
MAR60
APR60
MAY60
JUN60
JUL60
AUG60
SEP60
OCT60
NOV60
DEC60
JAN61
FEB61
MAR61
APR61
MAY61
JUN61
JUL61
AUG61
SEP61
OCT61
NOV61
DEC61
JAN62
FEB62
MAR62
APR62
MAY62
JUN62
JUL62
AUG62
SEP62
OCT62
NOV62
DEC62
JAN63
FEB63
MAR63
APR63
MAY63
JUN63
JUL63
AUG63
SEP63
OCT63
NOV63
DEC63
JAN64
FEB64
MAR64
APR64
MAY64
JUN64
JUL64
AUG64
SEP64
OCT64
NOV64
DEC64
771.
68
P«22» SERIES
X746
1928.
2313.
2699.
3084.
1928.
2313.
2699.
3084.
OX
XO
0 X
XO
XO
X 0
0
0 X
XO
OX
OX
XO
ox
XO
0 X
X 0
0 X
0 X
X 0
XO
0
0
XO
0 X
0
0 X
X 0
0 X
X 0
ox
ox
XO
*
*
ox
XO
ox
XO
XO
XO
XO
0
XO
0
XO
0 X
*
XO
XO
ox
0 X
*
0 X
XO
*
XO
XO
ox
X 0
ox
XO
0 X
ox
1542.
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2. CHART
(X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS
(0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS
MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES
(+) - DIG- FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS
(*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS
SCALE-ARITHMETIC
78.
81.
84.
87.
90.
93.
96.
99.
JANUARY
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963 X
1964
1965
X746
P.25i SERIES
X746
0 +
+
*
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
G 2. CHART
(X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS
(0) - D 9. FINAL SI RATIOS
MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES
(+) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS
(*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS
SCALE-ARITHMETIC
78.
81.
84.
87.
90.
93.
96.
99.
MARCH
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
P.23. SERIES
102.
105.
108.
111.
+*
0+
X
0
78.
81.
84.
87.
90.
93.
96.
99.
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
G 2. CHART
(X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS
(0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS
MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES
( + ) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS
(*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS
SCALE-ARITHMETIC
73.
81.
84.
87.
90.
93.
96.
MAY
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
102.
105.
108.
P.27t
105.
X
111.
SERIES
108.
*
105.
69
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
G 2. CHART
(X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS
(0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS
MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES
(+) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS
(*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS
SCALE-ARITHMETIC
78.
81.
84.
87.
90.
93.
96.
99.
JULY
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
i960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
P.29f SERIES
102.
+*
+ *
*+
*
+0
*
+
*
+
+*
+
+
81.
84.
87.
90-
93.
96.
*
102.
99.
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS' OF DOLLARS
G 2. CHART
(X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS
(0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS
MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES
(+) - D10. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS
(*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS
SCALE-ARITHMETIC
78.
81.
84.
87.
90.
93.
96.
99.
SEPTEMBER
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
78.
*
P.31i SERIES
102.
84.
87.
90.
NOVEMBER
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
70
105.
93.
O X
X
X
96.
*
X
102.
99.
+ *
+
+
0
+
*
102.
87.
90.
93.
96.
108.
105.
108.
105.
108.
*
*
+
84.
105.
P.33. SERIES
+*
-l+
*+
*
*
81.
108.
X
+ 0
+
*
+
+
*
+
AUG 1965
U. S. GENERAL IMPORTS IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
G 2. CHART
(X) - D 8. FINAL UNMODIFIED SI RATIOS
(0) - D 9. FINAL SI PATIOS
MODIFIED FOR EXTREMES
(+) - DIG. FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS
(*) - COINCIDENCE OF POINTS
SCALE-ARITHMETIC
78.
81.
84.
87.
90.
93.
96.
99.
78.
105.
+ *
+0
*
+*
+0
* +
*
+
81.
108.
X
*
78.
105.
99.
O
+
+
+
102.
X
*'
X. REFERENCES
The references cited below indicate sources for further
reading on time series analysis in general and the work which
forms the basis for X-ll in particular. References which
deal with the problem of seasonal adjustment as it relates
to the analysis of current economic conditions are 9, 14, and
15. Early works on seasonally and seasonal adjustment
methods are 1, 6, and 7. Works dealing with the history of
Census seasonal adjustment methods are 8, 11, 15, 17, and
18. Alternative methods of adjustment are described in
3, 5, 10, and 12.
1. Barton, H.C., Jr., "Adjustment for Seasonal Variation,"
Federal Reserve Bulletin, June 1941, pp. 518-28.
2. Bongard, Joseph, "Some Remarks on Moving Averages",
Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
1960, pp. 361-387.
3.
, "L'Elimination des Variations Saisonnieres par la
Methode des Modeles Mobiles", 1963.
4.
, "Notes on the Characteristics of Seasonal Variation
in Europe", Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, 1960, pp. 179-204.
5. Hannan, E. J., "The Estimation of Seasonal Variations
in Economic Time Series", Journal of the American
Statistical Association, Vol 58, No. 301, March 1963,
pp. 31-44.
10. Nettheim, Nigel F., "A Spectral Study of 'Overadjustment' for Seasonally" 1964 Proceedings of the Business
and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical*
Association, 1965, republished as Bureau of the Census
Working Paper No. 21, 1965.
11. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers,
1960.
12. Rosenblatt, Harry M., "Spectral Analysis and Parametric Methods of Seasonal Adjustment of Economic
Time Series", 1963 Proceedings of the Business and
Economic Statistics Section; American Statistical
Association, 1963, pp. 94-133; republished as Bureau of
the Census Working Paper No. 23, 1965.
13. Scheffe', Henry, The Analysis of Variance, 1959.
14. Shiskin, Julius, "Decomposition of Economic Time
Series", Science, Vol. 128, No. 3338 (December 19,
1958), pp. 1539-1546.
15.
, "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators",
Journal of Business, October 1957, republished as NBER
Occasional Paper No. 57.
16.
, "Seasonal Computations on Univac", American
Statistician, Vol. IX, No. 1, February 1955, pp. 19-23.
17.
., Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census,
Methods of Seasonal Adjustments, U.S. Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 5, 1961.
18.
and Harry Eisenpress, "Seasonal Adjustments by
Electronic Computer Methods", Journal of the American
Statistical Association, December 1957, pp. 415-449,
republished as NBER Technical Paper No. 12.
6. Kuznets, Simon, Seasonal Variations in Industry and
Trade, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1933.
7. Macaulay, Frederick R., The Smoothing of Time Series,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1931.
8. Marris, Stephen N., "The Treatment of Moving Seasonality in Census Method II," Seasonal Adjustment on
Electronic Computers, Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, 1960, pp. 257-309.
19. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The BLS Seasonal
Factor Method (1964), 1964.
9. McLaughlin, R. L., Time Series Forecasting, Marketing
Research Technique Series No. 6, American Marketing
Association, 1962.
20. Young, Allan, Estimating Trading-Day Variation in
Monthly Economic Time Series, U.S. Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 12, 1965.
71
Appendixes A through E have been omitted from this issue.
(See September issue.) They will be reinstated in the
November issue.
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
2ach month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (19 57- 59=100)l
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
106.8
102.6
102.3
114.7
103.9
100.8
97.7
106.0
101.8
102.8
115.1
104.4
100.7
97.7
104.3
102.0
102.9
113.9
103.4
100.9
97.5
105.9
101.2
105.1
112.0
102.7
100.4
98.1
107.1
99.9
105.2
111.2
101.3
100.9
98.9
106.9
100.1
106.6
109.1
101.1
100.3
98.7
106.7
99.7
108.7
105.9
101.7
101.3
98.2
105.0
101.3
112.2
104.6
101.8
100.3
98.6
104.7
101.2
111.3
104.1
101.1
99.9
98.3
104.9
101.8
110.7
104.8
101.2
99.0
97.8
103.7
102.1
108.9
104.4
101.7
97.9
98.7
104.8
102.0
113.5
104.7
100.9
97.6
99.8
1955
1956...
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
101.2
102.5
102.0
97.4
101.0
103.8
99.3
101.1
102.6
102.2
96.0
101.7
102.0
98.8
101.7
101.7
102.5
95.3
102.1
101.5
98.8
102.3
102.2
100.7
94.9
103.2
100.5
100.0
101.7
101.5
100.5
96.2
103.2
99.8
100.0
102.1
100.7
100.5
97.5
102.4
99.4
100.3
101.8
97.3
100.4
98.4
101.4
99.6
100.7
101.7
100.0
101.2
99.0
100.0
99.7
101.5
102.3
100.6
100.3
99.4
100.0
99.4
101.5
103.6
101.1
98.6
100.4
99.7
99.9
101.2
102.9
101.6
.98.6
100.9
99.2
100.1
101.0
103.1
101.6
98.0
100.1
101.1
99.7
101.2
80.0
78.0
78.8
87.7
89.4
92.0
93.1
80.7
77.7
81.0
88.0
88.8
93.1
92.5
80.2
78.1
80.1
87.9
89.3
93.6
91.8
90.3
96.3
100.6
99.7
101.2
101.2
99.3
91.0
96.2
101.0
99.6
101.7
101.2
99.5
91.2
96.4
101.9
100.5
99.6
101.4
99.5
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (19 57- 59-100 )2
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
77.3
81.0
77.8
80.9
88.0
89.3
93.8
77.3
81.0
78.0
81.7
87.9
89.6
93.6
78.9
80.6
77.9
82.5
88.3
89.5
93.8
78.4
80.7
76.8
84.2
88.7
89.9
93.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
90.5
91.9
96.5
102.9
99.6
97.3
101.9
90.8
92.2
96.7
104.1
99.2
99.0
102.4
90.0
93.2
96.4
105.0
98.9
99.7
102.4
89.5
93.4
98.0
105.2
97.9
100.7
101.0
77.8
81.0
77.3
84.4
89.7
89.7
92.7
90.1
94.5
98.3
103;9
98.2
101.3
100.7
78.4
80.5
76.6
85.5
89.8
90.3
92.5
78.9
80.1
76.6
87.4
89.0
89.9
92.9
80.2
78.5
75.5
88.0
89.0
90.6
92.5
80.5
78.4
77.3
88.0
89.7
91.1
92.6
90.2
95.2
98.5
102.5
98.7
101.7
100.1
90.5
98.3
98.8
101.6
99.7
101.6
99.8
91.0
96.4
98.3
101.2
101.0
101.5
99.0
91.1
96.2
99.1
100.7
101.0
101.6
99.0
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP (1957-59=100)3
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1963,
...
76.2
77.5
76.1
80.9
84.9
88.0
91.8
88.5
93.0
97.2
102.1
100.3
101.7
104.9
...
...
75.6
77.5
75.8
82.6
85.9
88.5
91.2
88.6
93.9
98.1
101.2
99.5
102.8
103.7
...
...
77.6
77.5
77.4
83.0
87.7
91.9
89.9
77.7
76.1
76.0
82.6
87.2
89.2
90.3
89.6
95.4
98.9
100.5
101.3
103.8
103.4
...
...
90.6
96.6
100.4
99.4
101.7
104.6
102.8
...
•'-Ratio of index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods to index of labor cost per unit of output (series 62).
Ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages and salaries plus supplements to wages and salaries)
to index of industrial production, manufacturing.
3
Ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises, in current dollars, to value of corporate product in constant
(1958) dollars.
2
73
INDEX
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Series
number1
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
2
3
4
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
29
14
14
13
14
11
14
14
11
30
31
32
37
38
10
14
14
14
12
40
41
42
43
45
46
47.
49
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
50..
51
52
53
54
55
57
58
16
17
17
17
17
17
16
61
62
64
65
66
67
68
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
56
59
56
59
56
56
59
59
••
57
60
57
60
57
57
I
60
60
58
58
58
61
61
61
58
61
1
2
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
27
26
26
27
24
27
27
25
8
8
8
8
8
24
27
27
27
25
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
3
••
••
..
4
••
5
••
64
64
64
64
64
64
••
..
..
••
6
••
7
65
65
65
65
65
65
8
66
A
••
B2
68
••
••
••
63
••
66
64
64
65
65
64
64
65
65
66
64
65
66
68
••
••
64
64
65
65
66
66
••
64
65
66
••
68
68
68
68
68
F
C2
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
69
69
69
70
69
70
69
••
••
••
64
65
66
••
68
64
65
66
-•
68
64
64
65
65
66
66
68
68
64
64
64
65'
65
65
66
68
••
••
••
••
••
-•
66
66
•-
63
68
68
64
64
65
65
64
64
64
65
65
65
66
66
66
••
68
68
68
64
64
65
65
66
••
68
72
72
72
72
72
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
70
69
69
69
69
69
70
70
69
69
69
69
70
70
G
E2
73
73
72
72
71
71
70
69
69
71
69
69
69
71
69
69
••
D2
72
72
73
73
••
73
73
73
73
73
73
72
72
••
Page
Issue
68
68
68
*66
*66
65
74
Dec. '64
Dec. '64
Dec. '64
Nov. '63
July ' 63
May
'64
July '65
68
*66
*66
*66
71
73
64
66
Nov. '64
Aug. '63
Nov. '63
Mar. '64
Aug. '65
Oct. '65
June !64
Apr. !64
64
71
74
*66
*66
*66
65
74
June *64
Aug. '65
Sept. '65
Jan. '64
Dec. »63
Dec. '63
June !64
June ' 65
*66
65
*66
*68
74
Oct.
June
Mar.
June
June
'63
'64
'64
' 63
'65
72
68
72
72
*66
*66
70
71
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
Mar.
Feb.
Sept.
Aug.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'65
71
72
72
72
*66
69
72
66
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
'65
'65
'65
'65
'63
'64
'65
'64
65
73
66
66
70
70
73
June
Oct.
June
June
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
'64
'65
'64
' 64
'64
'64
'65
Page
Issue
••
••
^Appendix G.
•'•See "back cover for series titles and sources.
2
Page number shown is for September issue.
75
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tab les
Appendixes
SPT*"! (=>Q
number1
q
/
0
/
rt
£
P2
F
n2
Page
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
22
19
19
19
20
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
34
31
31
31
32
33
34
34
34
70
69
69
71
71
70
70
71
71
72
72
72
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
19
19
19
20
22
19
22
22
20
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
32
34
31
34
34
32
32
69
69
69
71
70
71
70
70
71
69
72
72
72
110
Ill
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
21
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
33
33
33
33
33
33
70
70
71
71
69
69
69
69
69
121
122
123
125
126
127
128
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
Dl, 1 mo...
9 mo ...
D5
D6, 1 mo. . .
9 mo ...
Dll
D19, 1 mo..
9 mo. .
D23, 1 mo..
9 mo. .
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
43
42
42
42
43
43
43
43
D34
D35
D36
D41, 1 mo..
6 mo. .
D47, 1 mo..
6 mo. .
D48
D54, 1 mo..
9 mo. .
D58, 1 mo..
6 mo. .
D61
39
41
41
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
43
45
45
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
''•See back cover for series titles and sources.
2
Page number shown is for September issue.
76
46-7
46-7
56
46-9
46-9
55
55
48-9
48-9
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
72
72
G
Issue
70
73
73
73
73
69
69
69
74
ATIP1 64
Aug . ' 65
!
Aug . 65
Aug
'65
Aug !65
f
Sept 64
Sept ! 64
Sept ! 64
July ' 65
70
70
70
66
Sept
Sept
Sept
Oct
!
72
66
68
74
66
Aug
June
Nov
Aug
Oct
'65
'64
!
64
'65
'64
72
72
71
71
71
72
72
72
72
Mar
Feb
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
' 65
' 65
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
'64
'64
'64
'64
*64
'64
'64
72
68
73
72
69
73
72
69
72
73
Mar .
Oct
May
Apr
Oct
Feb
Apr
Oct .
Apr .
Feb
' 65
'64
' 65
' 65
'64
' 65
' 65
' 64
' 65
' 65
69
70
70
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Page
64
64
64
'64
T
Issue
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
f
Oct !64
Nov
'64
Nov
'64
Apr. '65
Oct . ' 64
Apr. '65
Oct. '64
Nov
'64
Apr . ' 65
Oct . ' 64
Apr . ' 65
Feb
' 65
Nov
'64
73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
'64
' 64
'64
'64
'64
'64
' 64
'64
'64
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order* "M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*)
were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER L E A D I N G INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).—Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).--Chi'cagO Purchasing
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Departfflent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, ail industries (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M)..—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).--Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started(M).-Departmeflt of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
(M).-F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).-Deparfment of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of "the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q)-National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research. Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT I N D I C A T O R S
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Deparfment of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).--Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wonted advertising in newspapers (M).-Nationai industrial Conference
Board
*47, Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14 Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over(M).-DUfi and BradStreet, Inc ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
*16, Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of iabor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M)»--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor,8ureau of Labor Statistics;and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
18. Prof its (before faxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal
Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).~Dep2rtment of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51* Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York(224 SMSA's)
(M),--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52* Personal income (M),--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).--Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sabs of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm,ofter valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
24. Value of manufacturers* new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).--Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
26. Buying policy—production materials,percent reporting commitments60 days or longer
(M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents: no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private Housing units authorized by local building permits (M).--Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonogricultural placements, all industries (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics National Income Division
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBUC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTSH, t>.c. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
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