Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1964

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OCTOBER 1964

Business

Cycle

Developments




DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Business

Cycle

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary

Developments

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development

OCTOBER 1964
Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN

DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER

This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis
Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—

Series ESI No. 64-10

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Feliks Tamm—Computation of business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Eugene L. Rossidivito—Specifications for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine Censky of the Statistical Reports Division.
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which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources on
the back cover of this report.

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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 87 principal indicators and over 300 components are included in preparing the report. The
movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the
general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags"
can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
The exact number of series included for the total and important classes of series
may vary from month to month because of additions
of new series and revisions in the composition of
indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available
in published reports. A complete list of the series
and the sources of data is shown on the back cover
of this report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear to contain seasonal
movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 2Zd of the month
following the month of data.

New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new fin/flings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation t o o t h e r series,
changes in components of indexes, etc.
These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Longer-span diffusion indexes (except for
series D34 for which a longer-span index is not
available) are shown in chart 2 and table 4 along
with the 1-month indexes. The directions of change
for each component of the 1-month and the longerterm indexes are shown in table 6.
Recent research has shown that these longerspan diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but
have systematically larger amplitudes than the 1month indexes.
The 1-month indexes generally
have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant -when important changes
are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the longer-span diffusion indexes
are centered, there is an apparent loss in currency
equal to one-half the span; e . g . , 3 months in the
case of a 6-month diffusion index. However, the
most recent figure for a 6-month or longer-span
index does provide the latest available information
on changes over that span. If a significant reversal




has taken place within that span, the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it.
Presentation of both
1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes provides
an opportunity for the user to take advantage oj
the best features of each in interpreting currenl
changes. A research report on this subject is ir
preparation.
2. Revision of the 1-month diffusion index foi
series D5 (initial claims for unemployment insurance) based on a new seasonal adjustment of components, has been carried back to November 1951.
Revisions for the period since December 1962 were
introduced in the May 1964 issue of this report.
3. Series D19 (diffusion index of stock prices)
which formerly was based on 78 to 86 components,
has been recomputed using 80 components for the
period prior to September 1963; 79 components }
September 1963 to March 1964; and 78 components
thereafter.
4. Series 110 (total funds raised by private
nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets) anc
series 111 (gross retained earnings of nonfinaneia
corporations) have been revised for the period 196]
to date to reflect new seasonal adjustments by the
source agency.
5. Appendix F includes historical data for 1(
series (93, 95, 99, 121, 122, 123, 125, 126, 127.
128) and for 10 long-term diffusion' indexes ( D l
D5, D6, D19, D23, D34, D41, D47, D54, D58) .

The November issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on November 24.

ii

Contents




Page
i
ii

Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue

Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3

1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5

.

Basic Data
Table 1.— Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most
Recent Months
Chart 1. —Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present
^
Table 2.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1961 to Present

6
8
22

Analytical Measures
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent
Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks ....
Chart 2. —Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present
Chart 3. —Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Major Economic Activities: January 1961
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing
Activities: January 1961 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components and Percent of Series
Rising: July 1963 to Present

34
35
37
38
41
42

Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5, —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7. —Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent
Expansions
Table 9. —Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific
Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough
Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions

50
55
58
59
60

Appendixes
(Standard appendixes B and E are omitted from this issue)
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and
Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix C.—Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1963 to December
1964)
Appendix F. —Historical Data for Selected Series

61
62
65
66

Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes

71

iii




Data Bank of
Business Cycle Indicators
A punch card file containing data for the business cycle indicators included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in tables 4 and 5, and the component series (listed in table 6)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the Bureau of
the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 indicators, the 30 diffusion indexes,
and 145 of the component series are available at cost. (The other series can be
obtained only from the sponsoring agencies.) The cost for these cards ranges from
$58 for 500 cards to $137 for 5,000 cards. One card is required per series year.
Thus, for the 85 principal indicators, from 1948 to date, the cost would be about
$70.
For these principal indicators plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145 component
series, the cost would be about $ 135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However,
the figures required for this purpose are published in Business Cycle Developments
each month.

BCD Technical Papers
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time
to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge.
The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1. —Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in the September
1963
issue) . A new version of this program is scheduled to be released
later this year. Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin
(published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue) .
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in
May 1964 issue) .
No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue).
No. 5. —Series 54 f Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue) .

Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief
Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.

iv

Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
Lead, those that usually move with, and those that
asually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
'leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" iniicators. In addition, other series are included in
:his report for a more complete coverage of the
lational economy. The series are described as
'ollows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
isually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
•eason, they are designated as "leading" series.
Dne group of these series pertains to activities in
he labor market, another to orders and contracts,
ind so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators .-—About 15
icries are direct measures of aggregate economic
.ctivity or move roughly together with it; for ex.mple, nonagricultural employment, industrial proLuc tion and retail sales . For this reason they are
eferred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such
s new plant and equipment expenditures and manuacturers' inventories, usually have reached turnig points after they were reached in aggregate
conomic activity, and for this reason, they are
esignated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with busiess cycle significance are also shown. Some of
lese series, such as change in money supply,
icrchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
eficit, represent important factors in the economy,
at they have not qualified as indicators for various
easons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
idustrial production indexes for several countries
hichhave important trade relations with the United
tates are presented.




Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2 ) . — O v e r
50 business cycle indicators and about 30 additional series with business cycle significance are
included. Together they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations
in the economy as well as the basis for making an
economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6). —
These measures aid in forming a judgment of the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle
and the extent of current changes in different parts
of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.

Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.

Seasonal and Related Statistical
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are
as follows: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30, 37,
55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, 112, and 128.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and
97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, and series 9 and 10 which are based on

Descriptions and Procedures
unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they
are published.
Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
the year. Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
made for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel.
Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
may be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations .

MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series . This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for "which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for
all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide
an indication of the variation about these moving
averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
for years beginning with 1958. Although not so
smooth as more powerful moving averages such as




the weighted 15-term Spencer curve, the MCD
curve is more current and has a smaller rounding
bias around business cycle peaks and troughs. On
balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms- of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle
fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historical
series and shown in appendix C . MCD is usually
computed for a fairly long period, one covering
both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pace
of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide ar
accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times,
Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery
when expansion has usually been rapid and too lov
during the late stages of expansion when the rate o
advance has usually been small. This limitatior
should also be borne in mind when making use o
this measure, 2

Analytical Measures of Current Change
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented— diffusion indexes, timing distributions, an<
direction-of-change tables. These measures ai<
in forming a judgment of the magnitude of curren
changes compared to previous changes, the immi
nence of a turning point in the business cycle, an<
the extent of current changes in different parts o
the economy. They also point to developments i:
particular industries and places .
Diffusion indexes. — Diffusion indexes are simpL
summary measures of groups of economic series
They express, for a given group, the percent of th
series which has risen over given intervals of time
Their turning points tend to lead the turning point
of the aggregate and they measure how widesprea
a business change is. They vary between, the limit
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all com
ponents falling) . Widespread increases are ofte
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are groupe
according to the tinning classification of the NBER
For monthly series, comparisons are made ove
1-month intervals (January-February, February
March, etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-mon1
intervals depending upon the irregularity of tt

-'•Various terms are used to describe the phase
of the business cycle. In this report both "con
traction11 and "recession" are used to describ
the declining phase. No difference in meaning i
intended.
2
For a more complete description of MCD and it
use in studying economic series, see Busines
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor: Na
tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vot. 1
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Fore
casting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton Universil
Press: 1961).

Descriptions and Procedures
eries. The indexes based on 1-month intervals
re more "current" but they are also more irreguir than the 6- or 9-month indexes (see chart 2) .
uarterly series are compared over 1-quarter in'.rvals, 3-quarter intervals, and 4-quarter interils . (See charts 2 and 3 . )
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
'.signate diffusion indexes . When one of these
imbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
imber, it means that the diffusion index has been
>mputed from components of the indicator series;
r example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
>mputed from components of series number 6.
Lffusion indexes not computed from basic series
>mponents are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
i 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen
these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the
snsus utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indi.tors ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
id D58) . Indexes for these indicators show com.risons for components over 1-month and either
or 9-month spans. The 11 other diffusion inxes are based on 7 indicators closely related to
e above 9 indicators. They include two National
dustrial Conference Board indexes ( l - and 3arter spans) based on newly approved capital
>propriations ( 17 industries); the First National
ty Bank of New York index based on quarterly
ofit reports ( 7 0 0 companies); and 8 NBER diffuon indexes—actual and anticipated — for the folwing: Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and
w orders (400 companies), based on data from
in and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 comDdity groups), based on data from the Association
American Railroads; and new plant and equipsnt expenditures ( 16 industries), based on data
Dm the Office of Business Economics and the
curities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
ow what proportion of business enterprises (or
dustries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comrisons with indexes based on actual changes show
aether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
g in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
rrent data are often highly irregular and require
reful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
ighs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evince for a prospective business cycle turning
int.
Each month a timing distribution is con'ucted which shows the number of series reach; high values during each month of the expansion,
e tinning distribution is summarized by showing
; number of series reaching new highs and the
rcent currently high for each of several recent
>nths (see table 3 ) .
Similar distributions of
>ws" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpretg the distribution of current highs, such distribu>ns are also shown for leading and coincident
ries as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
e peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
pans ions and at their peaks .




To compile timing distributions for the c u r r e n t
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 2) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change (" + " for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes.
These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another .
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 6- or
9-month spans .

Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.

Descriptions and Procedures
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured f r o m the May I960 r e f e r e n c e peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed f r o m
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
r e f e r e n c e troughs as the current expansion is ^beyond its r e f e r e n c e trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates . Although the spans from r e f e r e n c e
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also/ for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
the current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this respect,
with earlier expansions .
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates (table 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the trough level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spans from previous reference peaks. This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes from reference peak levels and from r e f erence peak dates.
These comparisons will be
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series.
For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 r e f e r ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) . Specific
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These
comparisons differ from those shown for reference
cycles in that they show the status only up to the
specific peak date. For some series past specific
expansions were shorter than the current one and,
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently.
Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate.
Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation pro-




cedure since 1919.
sort are as follows:

The principal cases

of thi

7. New private nonfarm dwelling units starte
(prior to 1939: Residential building cor
tracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural e j
tablishments (prior to 1929: Employme
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarter
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Depar
ment store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, tot
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Producti>
worker wage cost per unit) .

Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight t"
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicator
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons .
Historical Time Series ( charts 1, 2, and 3) . •
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of eac
series against the background of expansions ai
recessions in general business activity from 19'
to the current month. Shaded areas on the char
indicate periods of business cycle recession b<
tween business cycle peak dates (beginnings
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dat<
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new r<
cession will be entered only after a trough has be<
designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic seal
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of t
various series . The scale selected for each seri
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates
change of various series can be compared wi
each other only where scales are identical. See t
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using the
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) . — T h e
charts compare the performance of each seri
during the current expansion with its performan
during the expansion phase of previous busine
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in cha]
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined
the strategic point of the business cycle: For e
pansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and sp
cific trough (chart 5) . Thus these charts facility
judgements on the vigor of the current expanse
relative to cyclical movements during the con
spending expansions of previous cycles .
Two types of cyclical comparisons are mac
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current bu
ness or reference cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for aggi
gate economic activity) with movements over
corresponding phase of previous reference cycle
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current sj
cific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular seric
with the movements over the corresponding phas
of previous specific cycles in that series. In b
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4,
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined <
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs <
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptic
of these comparisons .

Descriptions and Procedures

How to

Charts 1, 2,
3
(May)

P

(Feb.)

T-*-

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER

gk (P) of cycle indicates —•*"*"
d of expansion and beginning
Recession (shaded areas)
designated by NBER

lid line indicates monthly
ta. (Such data may be the
jle-2 figures, MCD moving
erages, or diffusion indexes
arts 2 and 3.)

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
'"5"-May)
Broken lines indicate table-2
data for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted

rallel lines indicate a break
co,ntinuity--e.g., data not
lilable, change in sample reted, change in base used for
nputations, etc.

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
("I" — first quarter)
j back cover for complete
es and sources of series
Dotted line indicates anticipated

id line with quarterly
tting points indicates
rterly data

!

„

\ Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-1" is
a semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
'"scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.

ertain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for
CD 5-term moving averages and 2I4 months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.




Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS

Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
"back cover)

Unit of
measure

June
1964

July
1964

Percent change2

Aug.
1964

Sept.
1964

Avg.
change,
195319633

June
to
July
1964

July
to
Aug.
1964

Aug
to
Sep
196

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

1.
2,
30.
3.
4.
5.

Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg...
Accession rate, manufacturing..,.,..
Nonagri. placements, all industries.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Temporary layoff, all industries....
Avg. weekly initial claims, State

0.0 +0.2 -0,
0.0 -7.3 (w
-4.6 +3.
+1.4
-25.0 +30.0 (W
-10.3 +32.6 -46.

40.6
4.1
516
1.6
117

r40.6
r4.1
523
r2.0
129

• 40.7
p3.8
499
pl.4
87

p40.6
(NA)
514
(NA)
127

0.5
4. -9
1.8
9.5
17.8

259

261

24.0

241

5.3

-0.8

+8.0

20.02
6. New orders, durable goods tndus
Bil. dol
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus.. . .do. . . . . "3.92
....
9. Construction contracts, commercial Mil. sq. ft.
48.22
and industrial.
floor space.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip.. Bil. dol
4.63
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.*. . ..do
.

r21.25
r3.77

r!9.37
r3.76

P19.75
p3.60

3.8
4.5

+6.1
-3.8

-8.8 +2,
-0.3 -4

53.55
r4.50

46.30
P4.50
P5.53

(NA)
(NA)

9.7
4.9
11.6

+11.1
-2.8

-13.5 (NJ
0.0 (N,
+13.6

1585
115.2

rH83
r0.
!96

15797
153.07

15852
151.92

r42
!0
rl!3.0
(NA)
16074
76.20

(NA)
125.89

7.3
3.8
2
2.7
16.9

38

43

40

42

13.1

-13.2

+7.0

-5

102.9

r!03.5

(NA)
r!03.6
(NA)

P103.7

6.3
0.7
6.8

+0.6

(NA)
+0.1
(NA)

+0

Hours . . . .
....
Per 100 empl.
Thous
Per 100 empl.
Thous . . . .
....

..do

7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29.
12.
13.
14.

Ann. rate,

New bldg. permits, private housing.. 1957-59=100..
Net change, number of businesses4 5. Thous . . . .
....
New business incorporations.........
Liabilities of business failures.... Mil. dol

15, Large business failures.
16. Corporate profits after taxes4;

No. per week.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. 1957-59=100..
4
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg. .... Cents
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries4....
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*....
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries4 5
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories5...
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inventories of materials and supplies5..

-0

1941-43=10...
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....

pK58
p!08.6

(NA)
80.24

83.22

82.00

-5.5
+3.1
(NA)
+0^3 +1.4
+0.8 +49.8
-6.4
-4.9

p+1.7

2.6

(N.
-65

(NA)

5.1

83.41

+4
-3

+3.7

-1.5 +1
-2.0

2.5

..do

+1.4

r+0.2

p-0.1

(NA)

3.5

-1.2

-0.3

(N

.d..
.o..

-0.7

r-1.6

p+1.7

(NA)

1.5

-0.9

+3.3

(N

56

58

57

60

6.8

+3.6

-1.7 +5

59

58

58

61

5.8

-1.7

0.0 +5

+7.3

+10.2 +13

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
Percent . . .
...
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer*
..do
32. Vendor performance, percent report-

55

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
goods industries5.
23. Industrial materials prices*

Bil. dol
1957-59=100..

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41, Employees in nonagri. establishments, Thous
42. Total nonagricultural employment.... ..do
4 . Unemployment rate, married males.... • .do
0.
45, Avg. weekly insured unemplojt, State. ..do
46. Help-wanted advertising............. 1957-59=100..
4

59

65

74

7.7

+0.81
101.4

r+1.26
102.5

r+0.08
105.7

p+0.74
108.2

0.49
1.3

58782
65549
5.3
2.8
3.6

r58912
65706
4.9
2.7
3.6

r58936
65678
5.1
2.6
3.5

P59039
65534
5.2
2.9
3.4

0.3
0.4
4.2
6.0
4.8

+0.2
+0.2
+7.5
+3.6
0.0

0.0
0.0
-4.1
+3.7
+2.8

+0
-0
-2
-11
+2

121
131.6

124
r!32.9

123
r!33.7

p!26
P133.9

3.1
1.1

+2.5
+1.0

-0.8
+0.6

+2
+C

50. GNP in 1954 dollars

Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
4
49. GNP in current dollars . . . . . . . ..do
......
4
57, Final sales
..do
51. Bank debits outside NYC

..do

r2328.6
489.3
53. Labor income In mining, mfg., constr. .. .do. ••••«««. 126.4
54, Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
21773
55, Wholesale prices, except farm prod1957-59=100..
101.0




P518.2
p627.5
p625.8
r2430.2
491. A
126.9
r21946

101.2

+0.45 -1.18 +0.
+1.1
+3.1 +2

1.3
1.5
1.3

+0.9
+1.4
+1.8

r2372.5 p2447.9
r494.9 P497.1
r2.
! 7 9 P128.6
r22268 p22027

1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8

+4.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.8

nlOl .2

0.2

+0.2

101 .2

-2.4 +2
+0.7 +C
+0.8 +C
+1.5 -1
0.0

r

Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-Continued

Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
Ann. rate,
and equipment*
bil. dol....
52. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.. 1957-59=100..
58. Labor cost per dollar of real cor54. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories.... Bil. dol
35. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
36. Consumer installment debt
37. Bank rates on short-term business

Mil. dol

June
1964

July
1964

Percent change2

Aug.
1964

Avg. June
Sept. change, to
1964
1953- July
19633 1964

July
to
Aug.
1964

Aug.
to
Sept.
1964

98.1

r97.7

a4A.55
r97.5

P98.0

3.2
0.6

-0.4

+2.4
-0.2 +0.5

60.4

r60.5

(NA)
p60.7

(NA)

0.9
0.5

+6.2

(NA)
+0.3

(NA)

21.5
55590

21.6
56073

p21,5
56508

(NA)
(NA)

0.8
0.8

+0.5
+0.9

-0.5
+0.8

(NA)
(NA)

4.98

-0.2

2.3

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
&. Federal cash payments to public

0.

Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
120.0
Federal cash receipts from public... . d . . . . .
.o....
114.4
5
Federal cash surplus or deficit .... . . do. . . . . -5.6
....
Balance, Federal income and product
account* 5 . ........
. . ........
..do
Defense Dept. oblig. , procurement... Mil. dol
r!030

>1.
'2.
'9.
3.

Defense Dept. obligations, total....
Military contract awards in U S . .
....
New orders, defense products
5
Free reserves*

13.
&
.
>5.

• .do
..do..
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Percent. . . .
.

r4239
1663
2.34
+118
+0.71

126.9
116.4
-10.5

117.1
110.0
-7.1

1691

(NA)
716

2.5
(NA) .26.9

5274
3016
r3.29
+132
+0.71

(NA)
1915
rl.92
r+79
+0.32

15.1
(NA) 26.2
pi. 97 23.0
p^90 1042
pH-0.51 0.23

+0.62

p+0.68

0.21

55324
46636s
+4.75

8. Change in money supply and time de+0.81
posits5
..do
+0.73
0 . Total private borrowing*. ......
.....
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
1. Corporate gross savings*.
..do
do ** » « - *. ...+3.8B: -. +5v84^ 5

3. Change, consumer installment debt ..
4. Treasury bill r t * . . . . . . . .
ae.........
7. Municipal bond yields*

124.1
114.1
-10.0

5.7
5.4
5.6

+5.8
+1.7
-4.9

-7.7 +6.0
-5.5 +3.7
+3.4 -2.9

(NA)
+64 ! 2-57.7

(NA)

+24.4 (NA)
+81.4 -36.5 (NA)
+40.6 -41.6 +2.6
-53 +11
+14
0.00 -0.39 1-0.19

-0.08

-0.11 K).06

+5.24

11.6
8.6
1.22

-0.04

-13.4
+15.5
+0.91 i-O 49

+4.44
3.48
4.13
4.49
3.20

+5.80
3.48
4.13
4.43
3.18

+5.22
3.51
4.14
4.43
3.19

(NA)
3.53
4.16
4.49
3.23

0.85
7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6

+1.36 -0.58 (NA)
0.0 +0.9 +0.6
0.0 +0.2 +0.5
0.0 +1.4
-1.3
-0.6
+0.3 +1.3

5.45
2004.3
1505.5
+498.8

5.46
2111.4
1589.6
+521.8

5.46
2084.9
1592.2
+492.7
(NA)

5.46
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

0.58
4.6
3.6
59.0
286

+0.2
0.0 0.0
+5.3 -1.3 (NA)
+5.6 +0.2 (NA)
+23.0 -29.1 (NA)
(NA)

1957-59=100..
108.1
• • do ••..«••••
138
Bil. dol .
50.04
. .do. . . . .
. . . . (NA)

108.1
140
r51.30

108.2
121
r51.39

(NA)
(NA)
P52.13

0.2
7.0
1.5
5.9

..do
.d.
.o.

3.
5.
7.
3.

Mortgage yields*. .......... ..do
.........
Exports, excluding military aid..... Mil. dol
General imports ........... ..do
..........
Merchandise trade balance5 . . . . . ..do
.....
..do

L.
V.
3.
7.

Consumer prices
Construction contracts, value
Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus...
Backlog of capital appro, mfg.6

0.0 +0.1
+1.4 -13.6
+2.5 +0.2

(NA)
(NA)
+1.4
(NA)

r » revised; p » preliminary; e « estimated; a » anticipated; NA « not available.
1
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk ( ) that appear to contain no sea*,
lal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general, business activity
ies and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5 . Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the
•e of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as -tO.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
>ng the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
*Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarterquarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.




Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators

42
1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfq (hows)

41
40

|

39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees

5
4

1
i

3

30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (tnous.)

700
600 *
500 l
400

3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees
inverted scale)

1

2

1

3

4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.—inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.--5-term

75
100
125 I
150 "
175
200
225
250

5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.—inverted scale

200

300
400
500
1948

I! Ill III 111 II III III III it ill III III ii Hi &rald**Jii ii n m In In ii In III III it In ttutifBi In In n In iiln n itlttlttitilii n ii iilnli'lii n nliflii nliilnli
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

-1 20

6. New orders, dur. goods indus. (oil. dol.)

24. New orders, mach. and equip indus. (bil. dol.)

9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq, ft. of
floor area. MCD moving avg.—6-term)

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol

„ New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)

7, Private nonfarm housing starts (millions
MCD moving avg.—6-term)

29. New bldg. permits, private housing units
(index: 1957-59-100)

948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

j "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

10

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(July)
P

(Oct.)
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

New businesses and business failures

•H6
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)

+12
+8 <
"5
+4 *

—4
20
18
16
14 !
12 1

13. New bus. incorporations (thous

10

8

20

14, Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.--6-term)

40

60
80

100
120
140
160
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.--6-term)

20
A
n/

30
40
50

ilii nlitlftbtiliiliilii iilnli'lii iilnliiln nliiliilii
1948

1949 1950

1951 1952 1953 1954

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1955 1956 1957 1958

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

1964

60

11

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading I n d i c a t o r s — C o n .
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

f '
Prof its and stock prices [

—i 35
30

16. Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bil. dol.)

25

2

20

-5
§

J,,
no
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59 = 100)

105

«*

100 1
95

15.0
12.5 2

18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents)

10.0 i

V

7.5

15.0
12.5 cr,

22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries, Q (percent)

10.0 i
7.5
100
90
80
70
60

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
.(index: 194f-43=10)

50
40

30

20

ii ii mby mm\\ iii it lii nlii iiln ii ii iiliilijmi}lilimi n In iiln n iB&hfdii In In n In In In iilnliiln iiliiliiln
1948

1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

*e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1964

2
-•
§

12

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)
T

P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
21, Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (bil. dol.)

31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories(Ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg,--4-term )

20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories,
materials, and supplies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg,--5-term )

37. Purchased materials,

26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longei

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries

25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil.
MCD moving avg.--4-term

dol.

23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

80

Basic Data
CHART 1 N

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

B
(Nov.)
P

13

(Oct.)
T

NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Employment and unemployment

60
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions)

"I
~o

50
65

42. Total nonagr. employment (millions

60

55 i

50
43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

3
4
5

-|

6

*

7
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent—inverted scale)

8
2
3

4
5

1

6
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent—inverted scale)

3
4
5

|

6
7
46. Help-wanted advertising (index:.1957-59 = 100)

140
120
100 en

80
60

iilii iiliiUn uliiliiln iiliilulitiliiLlii iilnliiln iilitlslst'liiliiln
948

1949

1950 1951

1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959

e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1960 1961

1962 1963

1964

|

14

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s — C o n .
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)

50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q(bil.dol.)

49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil. dol.)

57. Final sales, Q (bil. dol.)

350

- 300

-1 250
1948

1949 1950

1951 1952

1953 1954

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1955 1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 1963

1964

15

Basic Data
CHART 1

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s — Con.

(Nov.)
P

(July)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)

52. Personal income (biI. dol

53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)

54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)

55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)

?48

1949 1950

1951

1952 1953 1954

"How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1955 1956

1957

1958

1959 1960

1961

1962 1963 1964

16

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER L a g g i n g I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (bil. dol.

50

- 40
- 30

62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)

- 20
110
100
90

68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)

110
100

64. BOOK value of mfrs. inventories (bil. dol.)

I70
60 «;

- 50

i

-40
-.25
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)

20

1

15

T60
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)

50 :

-40 1

- 30

67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)

1948

1949 1950 1951

teHi Ill III ii III lulu iiliWltiilii III III ii iiln In ul
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1964

17

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

CHART 1

D • O t h e r U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s C y c l e S i g n i f i c a n c e
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

140
82. Fed,, cash payments to public (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.--6 term)

120
Cjl

100 js
o
80
120
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—6-term)

100 c,,

so a
60
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—6-t.erm)

+10

1
-10
95. Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and
product acct., Q (bil. dol.)

4-10

-10
2.5

90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6-term)

2.0 J
1.5 8
1.0

J/V

91. Defense Dept. obliq., total (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg,—6-term)

• 92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6-term)^

I

'!

3.0
2.0

99, New orders, defense products (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg,--6-terrn)

3.0

2.0

1.0
48

1949

1950

1951

1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

"How to Read Charts l f 2, and 3," page 5.




1957

1958 1959 I960

1961 1962 19631964

1

18

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

CHART 1

D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

Reserves, money supply and financino

93. Free reserves (bil. dol.

85. Change in money supply (percent
MCD moving avg.-6-term

98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent
MCD moving avg.--6-term)

110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, b

111. Corporate gross savings (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

112. Changes in bank loans to businesses (Ann. rate, bil.
MCD moving avg.--5-term

dol.

113. Change in consumer installment debt. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

I960' 1961

1962

1963

1964

19

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

CHART 1

D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

114. Treasury bill rate (percent)

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

118. Mortgage yields (percent)

'1
948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

20

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e — Con.

I

(Nov.)
P

(July)

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

(Oct.)
T

T

P

I

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

T

I M

I

I [

86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol

89. Excess of receipts or payments in
U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)

94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100
MCD moving avg.—5-term)

96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)

klog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 1963

1964

21

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

CHART 1

E bj I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n s of I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t i o n
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)
T

P

MM

I

[industrial production indexes

(fcioy) (Feb.)
P
T

T

47, United States (index: 1957-59-100) j

122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100)

121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100)

125. West Germany (index: 1957-59-100)

128. Japan (index: 1957-59-100)

948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

B "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 1963

1964

22

Basic Data
table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatec
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by 50; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3> 4? 5> 14> 15> 40, 43, and 4-5). Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicate;
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
]
^BER Leading Indicators

Year and
month

1. Avg. work- 2. Accession
week, produc- rate, manution workers, facturing2
manufacturing1

(Hours)

(Per 100
employees)

4. Persons 5. Average
30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manu- on temporary weekly inicultural
layoff, all tial claims,
placements, facturing
industries3 State unemall indusployment intries
surance *
(Thous.)

(Per 100
employees)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

6. New orders, durable goods
industries

24. New orders, machi]
ery and
equipment
industries 5

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1961
39 2
39.4

torch
April
May

July
August . . . . .
....
October

1962
January

March
April
May
June
July
August
October

1963
January
February
March
April
Jfey

June
July
August . . . . .
....
October
November
December. . . .
...

©///

39 4
39.5
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.8
40.3
40.6
40.3

39
3.8
43
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
3.8
0.
44
4.3
4.1

447
459
448
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551

29
©2.9
24
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.0

173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127

393
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296

©13 95
14.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.89
15.92
16.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26

2 76
2.74
2.71
2.74
2.70
2.80
3.03
3.07
2.88
2.91
2.98
2.96

40 0
40 3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
40.7
40.2
4.
04
40.2

4.2
42
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8

557
559
572
574
0592
557
557
550
555
554
563
547

1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0

135
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120

304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317

17.70
17.70
17.15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33

3.15
3.30
2.97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07

40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.3
40.7
40.6
40.5
40.5

3.7
3.9
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.9

552
555
553
560
551
541
541
540
552
570
530
532

2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8

152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134

313
294
285
290
286
287
283
285
282
281
280
308

18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97

3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.2S
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.4/
3.2^
3.61

40.1
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
r40 6
IE] 40 7
P40.6

3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
38
41
r4.1
P3.8

536
535
520
522
533
516
523
499

18

®pl 4

(NA)

51A

(NA)

123
123
91
122
104
117
129
©87
127

97

1964
February
March
April
May
July
August , T . . . .
...

October

1.7

17
1.6
1.7

16
r2.0

289
264
273
260
260
259
261
120
)4
241
6
257

-| Q rj i
1 . 4
9 7

-i Q rn

1 . 50
9
1 Q OA
19.26

on i A

1 Q Q/

-1-7. 74

on no
FH"IT»OI o c
ItLJr^i.o
Or~}
T±y . j>]
T«1 Q

p97
!.5

0 A'

o i•2 If.
_?.4<
? A"
Tui-a Qo q;

•pO

rjr

rl *7(

,-,0 Ar

December. . . .
...
1

2
© = December 1 6 .
90
© = October 1 6 .
90
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
4
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
5
© « November I960.
Week ended October 10.




23

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

ries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by (H"|; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15? 40, 43, and 4 )
5.
Series numbers, are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued

Year and
month

9. Construction contracts,
commercial and
industrial
buildings

(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)

10. Contracts
and orders,
plant and
equipment

(Bil. dol.)

11. Newly ap- 7. New private
proved capital nonfarm dwelappropriations, ling units
1000 manufac- started2
turing corporations 1
(Bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
thous . )

29. New private housing
units authorized by local
building permits 2

(1957-59=100)

12. Net change 13. New business incorpoin business
rations.
population,
operating
businesses

(Thous . )

(Number)

1961

)ruary<
•11
r
y

list, ........

lumber » - - - r T *

1962
tuarv
•ch
1
1

ust

36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61

a. 69

3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.28
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50

38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16
40.56
42.69
40.96
a. 08
42.20
a. 89

3.71
3.98
3.71
3.96
3.76
3 ;66
3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99

44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.14
44.15

3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
04.68

51.64
52.47
48.17
©54.84
46.22
48.22
53.55
46.30
(NA)

4.37
4.12
4.10
4.37
4.63
4.63
r4.50
P4.50
(NA)

2.26
2.46
2.85
2.62

2.86
2. 56

3^04
3*.25

1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324

89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0

1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541

103.8
109.1
104.0
111.9
103.8
106.1
108.7
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0

1,287
1,418
1,551
1,656
1,651
1,558
1,584
1,454
1,712
© 1,824
1,544
1,524

111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7

1,688
1,613
1,638
1,501
1,507
1,585
rl,483
rl,402
pl,458

117.6
©123.9
121.5
112.9
112.1
115.2
r!09.6
rl!3.0
p!08.6

©+6
+10
'+9
+11

+11
+12
+11
+11

©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,881
15,599
15,758
15,670
15,372
15,245
14,947
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985

1963
ch
11
y.

ust

1964
larv
[•\iarv
3h

LI
5

ist
tember

2*. 68
3*. 35
4*. 07

3*93

4.01
4.87

[H}p5.53

*mber
( a 3rd quarter I 6 .
D
90




2

( » December I960.
D

+11
+11
+13
+12

+16

E+17
(NA)

14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
016,275
15,759
15,867
16,193
16,086
16,064
16,242
15,932
15,797
15,852
16,074
(NA)

24

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicat'
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (JL) and current highs, by ITT1; the reverse
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14? 15, 40, 43, and 45) •
Series numbers are for identification only and
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicat
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
14 . Current
liabilities
of business
failures 1

Year and
month

(Mil. dol.)

15. Business 16. Corporate profits
failures
with liabil- after taxes
ities of
$100,000 and
over 2
(Number per
week)

17. Ratio,
price to
unit labor
cost index,
manufacturing

(Ann. rate, (1957-59=
bil. dol. "
100)

18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations

22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating,
corporate,
all indus.

19. Stock
prices, 500
common
stocks* 2

(Cents)

(Percent)

(1941-43=10)

21. Change
business ir
ventories £
ter valuat:
adjustment
all indus.

(Ann. rat(
bil. dol

1961

March
April
May
June
July

77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.1$
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81

38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38

101.53
86.03
77.40
107.15
89.80
93.15
107.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61

January. .......

37
032
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37

146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
HA. 50
(B152.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17

49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
39

87.70
121.87
107.25
98.50
90.44
153.07
151.92
76.20
125.89

41
42
37
46
39
38
43
40
42

©19^5

21.8
22.0
24.*5

99.3
©98.8
98.9
100.4
100.3
101.0
101.4
102.0
101.6
101.5
101.7
102.3

©6>!o

©7!9

7!6

s!6

7*.9

8.5

S.6

9^3

8.2

9^2

8.'l

9^1

s'.i

9^1

8.3

9.1

7!9

9il

S.5

9iZ

S.5

9^3

s'.B

9^8

09!i

10.4

8.9

ED 10. 5

59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74

©-3.'
+2.
+3!
+5.

1962

March
April....
May
June
July
August
September
December

24^5
24^9

25.0
25.7

101.3
101.7
101.8
100.9
101.1
100.4
100.7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5

69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64

(E+6,
+6!

<-5.
+5

1963

March
April
May
July
August
Sppt^nibei*, » , . . .
October
November

25.*5

26]6
26\7
28.3

100.6
100.8
101.3
101.3
101.8
102.7
102.3
101.5
101.9
102.0
101.9
102.4

65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17

+3
+3
+4
+6

1964
January
March
April
May
June
July
AUfirilgt

T T T -

3l!2
031.9

2
© = October 1 6 .
9 0
( = June 1 6 .
D
9 0
Average for October 14, 15, and 16.

1
3




(NA)

103.2
103.3
102.7
0103.8
103.7
102.9
r!03.5
r!03.6
P103.7

(NA)

(NA)

76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
[HJ83.41
3
84. 62

+2
+3
pfl

25

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 196il TO PRESENT-Continued

ries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by (U; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

31. Change in
book value,
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total l

20. Change in 37. Purchased
book value,
materials,
mf rs . ' inven- percent retories of ma- porting higher
inventories
terials and
1
supplies

(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

-4.3
-2.2

-1.6
-1 9
-2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3

(Percent
reporting)

26. Production
matls., percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer* *
(Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
percent reporting slower
deliveries* 2
(Percent
reporting)

25. Change in 23. Industrial
unfilled or- materials
ders, durable prices* l
goods industries3

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

1961
•ch
•11

itember . . .
...

©+6.6

41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55

51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54

38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53

-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0.36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65

97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0

+6.0
+5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+5.1

+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7

58
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48

57
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51

56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48

+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91

102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8

+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
03+9.6
+7.2

+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7

46
48
47
50
55
57
56
50
49
46
42
42

50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55

50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46

+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40

95.5
95.1
9.
44
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7

+3.5
0.0
+3.7
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
r+0.2
p-0.1
(NA)

-1.9
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
r-1.6
p+1.7
(NA)

40
50
54
55
51
56
58
57
060

53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
©61

55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
©74

+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
[njr+l.26
r+0.08
p+0.74

98.5
98.5
98.9

-7.2
+1.0
+0.8
-0.8
+2.0
+3.1
+4.0
+1.9
+7.0
+6.2

1962
uarv
ruary

ch
11

e
vist. . . . .
....
tember
pfriher. , * , , T ,

1963
nary

2h
11

a
ist

Dber
»TriheT*. , » » , r .

1964

•uarv
•h
1.

ist
.ember . . .
...

2
CD = December 1 6 .
90
CD = March 1960.
Average for October 13, 14, and 15.




© = January 1960.

102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
LHJ108.2
4
111. 5

26

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continoed

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicate
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs, by TtTl; the reverse :
p
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and (
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown oh the back cover. The "r" indicate
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and
month

41. Employees 42. Total
nonagriculin nonagricultural es- tural emtablishments ployment,
labor force
survey1 2

40. Unem43. Unemployment
ployment
rate, total1 rate, married males1

45. Avg.
weekly insured unemployment
rate, State
programs3

46. Helpwanted advertising
in newspapers

47. Industrial production

50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollai

(1957-59=
100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

53,725
©53,541
53,615
53,713
53,911
54,165
54,294
5,4
444
54,480
54,593
54,825
54,927

61,034
60,897
61,229
61,154
61,134
61,622
61,259
61,274
61,299
61,463
61,896
61,747

6.7
6.9
6.9
7.0
©7.1
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0

4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
©5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.9

6.2
6.3
©6.3
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8

88
©88
90
8991
93
94
98
98
107
110
110

103.6
©103.6
104.0
106.7
108.7
110.5
111.5
112.9
111.6
113.4
114.9
115.8

54,946
55,223
55,368
55,703
55,822
55,908
56,010
56,019
56,125
56,195
56,205
56,211

61,899
62,179
62,253
62,247
62,663
62,752
62,620
63,021
63,039
63,007
62,870
63,240

5.8
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5.5

3.8
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5

4.7
4.5
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7

114
115
115
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
e0
!7

115.0
116.4
117.5
118.0
118.2
118.1
119.0
119.0
119.7
119.1
119.8
119.4

56,333
56,458
56,706
56,873
57,060
57,194
57,340
57,344
57,453
57,646
57,580
57,748

63,090
63,227
63,478
63,770
63,690
63,843
64,092
64,069
64,167
64,128
64,319
64,315

5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5

3.7
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3

4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3

e0
!7
e0
!9
e0
!8
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118

119.8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0

64,631
65,035
65,207
65,811
0589
6,8
65,549
65,706
65,678
65,534

5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.3
®4.9
5.1
5.2

3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.7
®2.6
2.9

4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6

116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
®pl26

127.7
128.2
129.0
130.5
131.3
131.6
rl32.9
r!33.7
(3P133.9

(1957-59=100;

1961

March
April
May
June
July
September
October

©3.
44'
44'
4.
40'
5.
42'
6.

1962

March....
April
May
July
September
October
December

49'
6.

475*.
478.
483!

1963
March
April
Ifey

July

October
November

1964
January* . . . .
...
February
March
April
May
June
July
Ammg-t . . . T T T T
...
SeptembpTt T , t . T

October

57,850
58,183
58,327
58,502
58,590
58,732
r58,912
r 58, 936
®p59,039

Gfc'.l
4
3.4

485
487
494
502

508
513

G3P518

December
^•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
CD * December 1960.
3
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
4
Week ended October 3.




27

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

ries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by HD ; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Continued
Year and
month

49. Gross
national
product in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

52. Personal
57. Final
51. Bank
sales (series debits outside income1
NIC, 343
4-9 minus
centers1
series 21)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

55. Wholesale
53. Labor in- 54. Sales of
come in mining, retail stores prices except
farm products
manufacturing ,
and foods
and construc1
tion

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9

405.0
406.2
410.3
411.6
413.6
416.1
420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5

104.2
104.0
104.5
105.4
106.4
107.7
108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
111.7
112.1

17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879

101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9

2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9

431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
444.1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0

112.0
113.0
114.2
115.9
115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0

18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253

100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7

2,148.0
2,085.5
2,095.6
2,198.1
2,150.7
2,105.4
2,276.8
2,189.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,246.9
2,320.5

454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1

117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8
120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1

20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019

100.5
100.5
100.5
©100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.0

r2, 354.9
r2,239.6
r2,322.3
©r2, 451.1
r2,312.7
r2,328.6
r2,430.2
r2,372.5
P 2,447.9

479.4
480.5
482.9
486.6
487.8
489.3
491.4
r494.9
0P497.1

122.7
124.2
124.6
125.9
125.8
126.4
126.9
r!27.9
(H}pl28.6

21,000
21,533
21,223
21,392
21,777
21,773
r21,946
|Hir22,268
p22,027

101.1
101.1
101.0
101.1
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
{HJplOl.2
2
101.2

(Ann. rate,
bil.

dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

1961
©501 [4
*ch
*il
j
ie

505 J

536 [9

531.4

545.5

538.7
547^3

559^6

554.0
561.2

568 \2

577 [4

573.7

587! 2

583! 6

599! 6

592! 6

608 '.B

606.4

618.6

•ust.
tember

518.7

571 ! 8

iruary
•ch
•11

522 .*4

566! 6

iober
rember
member
1962

511 ! 8

553.4

fUSt. ........

513.9

614.9

®p627.5

[Eip625.8

ember
1963
viarv
ch
11
e

tenter .,.,.,
ember .......
eiribeT* . . * . . , .
1964
larv •
ruarv.
3h
LI

ist
Member ......
)ber

saber
L

CD « December 1 6 .
90
Week ended October 13.




28

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEKT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicat
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (JL) and current highs, by 5T1; the reverse
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicat
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures,
new plant and
equipment,
total

Year and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing

68. Labor cost 64. Book value
per dollar of of mf rs . ' inreal corporate ventories
GNP

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(Bil.

dol.)

65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs. ' in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods

(Bil. dol.)

67. Bank rat
on short-tei
business
loans, 19
cities*

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

1961
January
33^85
March
April
May

©33.50

July
August

34^70

October
November

35^40

101.8
102.4
102.3
100.5
100.3
99.5
99.1
98.5
99.1
98.9
99.0
©98.4

104.9
103.4
103 .*8
©102.3

53.7
53.7
53.5
53.4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1

18.4
18.4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
©18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8

42,109
42,035
42,041
©41,867
41,870
41,895
41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774

55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8

19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8

42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174

57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1

19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2

47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
52,324
52,784

60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
r60.5
{H]p60.7
(NA)

21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
©21.6
P21.5
(NA)

53,212
53,791
54,315
54,727
55,220
55,590
56,073
056,508
(NA)

4*.S
4^9
4. *9
©4*.S

1962
February
March
April
May

35.70
, . ..

July
August.

36^95
3B\35

October
37.*95
December

1963
January
February.
March
April

36!95

MSiy

38!o5

June
July
40.00
October
November .......

41.20

99.4
99.0
98.8
99.8
99.8
0100.4
100.1
100.2
99.6
100.1

99.5

100.1
99.7
99.6
99.0
'98.9
98.8
98.3
98.8
99.5
99.3
98.9
99.1
98.6

102.9
103 .'4

103.5
103." 2

104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6

4.'c
5.C
4.c
05l<

5.'
•

5.'
5!'
5!-

1964
February, ......
March
April
May

42.55
EL'43.50

July
September ......
October
November . * • * . . .




a44.55
a46!l5

97.9
97.8
98.3
97.5
97.5
98.1
r97.7
r97.5
P98.0

104.2
0104.9

(NA)

4.
4,
4

29

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

ries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [ ! • the reverse is
H
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14? 15> 40, 43, and 4-5).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; fle", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
82. Federal
cash payments
to public

83. Federal
cash receipts from
public

84. Federal
cash surplus
(+), or
deficit (-)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

95. Surplus 90. Defense
Department
(+), or
deficit ( ) obligations,
-,
Fed. income procurement
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total

92. Military 99. New
orders,
prime contract awards defense
to U.S. bus- products
iness firms

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1961
»ch
•11
ie
TLSt. . . . .
....

K)ber

95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3

94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7

-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6

115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2

101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0

-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2

115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8
110.2
r!25.7
rllS.O
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7

108.6
110.6
108.9
110.2
112.2
111.9
114.9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5

-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
r-10.8
r-3.3
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9
-4.2

rl29.6
117.2
120.3
123.2
110.3
120.0
126.9
117.1
124.1

114.8
123.4
115.3
126.6
105.1
114.4
116.4
110.0
114.1

r-14.8
+6.2
-5.0
+3.4
-5.2
-5.6
-10.5
-7.1
-10.0

-6>!6
-4^7
-3 .*4

-2.6

1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773

3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,653

1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281

1.45
2.00
14
.8
1.85
1.82
1.73
2.11
1.96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1.82

1,718
1,319
1,435
1,885
1,142
1,246
1,731
1,240
1,044
1,684
1,818
1,158

4,434
4,181
4,230
4,486
4,059
4,024
4,864
4,300
3,928
4,553
4,952
3,974

3,073
2,135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984

19
.9
2.05
2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53

1,565
1,325
1,258
1,304
1,530
1,298
1,255
1,512
1,221
2,038
1,125
1,182

4,642
4,253.
3,905
4,108
4,601
4,378
4,834
4,497
4,215
5,176
4,138
4,090

2,343
2,571
2,168
1,973
2,250
2,125
2,506
2,704
2,688
2,224
1,566
201
,4

28
.9
2.09
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
19
.7
14
.8

1,071
2,067
1,030
1,516
2,192
rl,030
1,691
716
(NA)

4,370
5,484
3,731
4,592
4,941
r4,239
5,274
(NA)

2,337
2,854
1,603
2,529
2,465
1,663
3,016
1,915
(NA)

2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
r3.29
rl.92
pl.97

1962
ch
11

ober
ember
emh#»r .....»,
1963
nary

ch
11

ist
:>ber

-4.4
-4^6
-2l9
-4^5

-4.8
-1.0

-6!1?
+0.6

1964
"•uarv
?h
Ll

ist
jmber




-2.4

r-9.0
(NA)

30

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEKT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicat
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( ) and current highs, by fff] ; the reverse
L
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicat
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month

85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply

93. Free
reserves*

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

98. Change in
money supply
and time
depos its

(Percent)

1961

February
March
April
May
June
July

September
November
December
1962

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October

+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419

+0.07
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.28
+0.21
0.00
+0.21
+0.42
+0.28
+0.55
+0.28

+0.37
+0.79
+0.46
+0.46
+0.64
+0.55
+0.45
+0.50
+0.58
+0.53
+0.71
+0.44

+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268

0.00
+0.14
+0.21
+0.27
-0.20
+0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-0.14
+0.34
+0.48
+0.41

+0.57
+0.91
+0.91
+0.64
+0.13
+0.51
+0.38
+0.34
+0.38
+0.71
+0.87
+0.95

+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209

+0.27
+0.27
+0.34
+0.20
+0.27
+0.40
+0.53
+0.13
+0.26
+0.46
+0.79
-0.20

+0.69
+0.69
+0.76
+0.48
+0.48
+0.63
+0.71
+0.66
+0.54
+0.73
+1.15
+0.34

+171
+91
+98
+162
+78
+118
+132
r+79
p+90

+0.39
0.00
+0.26
+0.19
0.00
+0.71
+0.71
+0 . 32
p+0.51

+0.83
+0.45
+0.37
+0.37
+0.37
+0.81
+0.73
+0.62
p+0.68

110. Total
private
borrowing

111. Corporate
gross savings

112. Change,
business
loans

(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
million dollars) million dollars) billion dollars
1
1
Revised
Revised
30,856

27,884

36,664

33,308

40,928

33,984

41,464

39,048

42,712

37,524

53,184

37,624

47,644

38,744

50,608

41,500

46,404

38,632

55,320

38,956

57,324

41,848

61,072

41,376

46,280

43,244

63,876

40,364

55,324

46,636

+0.54
-0.77
+0.92
-0.37
-0.31
-1.50
+2.18
+1.00
+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72
+2.90
+1.51
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95

1963

March
April
May
June
July
October
November

+2.26
+1.01
+1.01
+1.57
+3.18
+1.74
+1.97
+2.03
+2.94
+4.67
+6.10
+5.34

1964

February
March
April
May
July
AufiTuet .........

September
October
November .......
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.




+2.2*
+3.05
+0.05
+1.8]
+5.6C
+3.8*
+3.8,
+4.7!
+5.2.

31

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

eries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5.
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance— Continued
Year and
month

1961

113. Change,
consumer
installment
debt
(Annual rate,
billion dollars)

5ril

me
lly

itober
)vember

114. Treasury
bill rate*

( Percent )

115. Treasury
bond yields*

( Percent )

116. Corporate
bond yields*

(Percent)

117. Municipal
bond yields*

(Percent)

118. Mortgage
yields*

(Percent)

-0.36
-0.89
+0.07
-2.09
+0.04
+0.30
+0.10
+1.01
+0.78
+2.03
+2.65
+3.98

2.30
2.41
2.42
2.33
2.29
2.36
2.27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62

3.89
3.81
3.78
3.80
3.73
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.02
3.98
3.98
4.06

4.63
4.43
4.36
4.56
4.61
4.73
4.74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4.48
4.56

3.40
3.31
3.45
3.50
3.43
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3.41
3.47

6.00
5.89
5.82
5.77
5.74
5.72
5.68
5.68
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.69

+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82

2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86

4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87

4.55
4.54
4.42
4.31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28

3.34
3.21
3.14
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07

5.69
5.68
5.65
5.64
5.60
5.59
5.58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53

+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52

2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52

3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4,11
4.14

4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4.35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4.36
4.42
4.49

3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27

5.52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45

+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+5.80
+5.22
(NA)

3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53

4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16

4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49

3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23

5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46

1962

jbruary
irch
xril
iv
me
lly

icust
jptember
itober
>vember
jcember
1963

muary
,ril
Lly
LgUSt

itober
•npiriber. ......
1964

ibruary
,ril
y
ly

tober




32

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicate'
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and 'current highs, by fiTI; the reverse i
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4.5).
Series numbers are for identification only and d<
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicate
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
86. Exports
excluding
military aid
shipments,
total

87. General 88. Merchandise trade
imports,
balance
total
(series 86
minus
series 87)

(Mil. dol.)

Year and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

94- Construction
contracts,
total
value

96. Manufacturers ' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries

97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations,
manufacturing

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.;

103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5

108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119

43.01
42.94
42.52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17

104.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9

115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138

45.80
46.42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09

106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7

121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148

45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68

107.8
107.6
107.7
107.9
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.2
(NA)

147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
(NA)

47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
r51.30
r51.39
P52.13

89. Excess, 81. Consumer
receipts (+) prices
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments

(Mil. dol.)

1961

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
November

1963
January
February
March
April
1-ky

June
July
5>*»ptpTnher . . .
...
October
November
December . . . .
...
1964
January
February
March
April
May
July
August. T T .».,,,

September
October

1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8

1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5

+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3

1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
1,795.4
1,761.7
1,835.6
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838.7

1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1,404.1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5

+341.8
+489.5
+330.3
+430.4
+357.6
+484.9
+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2

984.8
2,117.5
1,960.4
1,912.7
1,892.6
1,784.7
1,823.0
1,894.6
1,979.6
1,946.4
1,944.6
2,049.4

1,091.6
1,497.4
1,486.7
1,417.2
1,420:2
1,420.5
1,457.5
1,508.3
1,450.4
1,458.8
1,471.9
1,480.0

-106.8
+620.1
+473.7
+495.5
+472.4
+364.2
+365.5
+386.3
+529.2
+487.6
+472.7
+569.4

2,037.3
2,028.7
2,077.5
2,046.0
2,052.1
2,004.3
2,111.4
2,084.9
(NA)

1,421.8
1,445.3
1,522.9
1,542.1
1,548.1
1,505.5
1,589.6
1,592.2
(NA)

+615.5
+583.4
+554.6
+503.9
+504.0
+498.8
+521.8
+492.7
(NA)

-486
1

+47

-700
-1,231

-748
-440
-334
-681

-1,062
-1,295

-153
-134

r-85
r-733

(NA)

December
•'•Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.




6 ".6*
6.5'.
6.51

6^5:

6*.8;

6 '.8:
6'.8
7'.2<

?!6'
7.5

•S!Q
8.7

8.*9<

(NA;

33

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEKT-Continued

eries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by HD ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4> 5, 14 > 15, 40, 43, and 45)Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

International comparisons of industrial production
Year and
month

47. United
States,
industrial
production

123. Canada, 122. United 121. OECD,1
European
industrial Kingdom,
production industrial
countries,
industrial
production
production

125. West
Germany,
industrial
production

126. France, 127. Italy,
industrial
industrial
production production

128. Japan,
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

104
104
104
107
109
110
112
113
112
113
115
116

104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114

109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109

117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123

124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128

115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122

130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148

155
154
158
159
162
165
169
172
172
175
176
177

115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119

113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120

108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110

122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127

126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132
133
132

122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126

149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160

182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178

120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127

120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131

110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121

127
126
127
130
131
132
132
130
133
135
136
136

129
128
132
133
133
139
133
135
135
139
141
137

127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138

158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170

179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217

128
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
P134

133
134
133
135
132
133
p!33
(NA)

123
123
123
122
122
122
p!23
(NA)

r!39
r3
!9
r4
!0
r4
!0
r4
!0
r3
!9
p!39
(NA)

Ml
143
146
145
146
146
146
P146
(NA)

140
139
139
141
140
141
(NA)

172

217
226
223
224
228
235
r235
p235
(NA)

(1957-59=
100)
1961

3ril

me
Uly

»cember
1962
inuary
>ril

ay
ctober

1963

tbruary
irch
,ril
Lly

1964

bruary

,ril
ne
ly

gust. . . . .
....
tober

1

0rganization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




169
173
169
166
162
pl64
(NA)

Analytical Measures

34

Table 3.--DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached

Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948

July
1957

July
1953

3d month before business cycle peals
Aug.
1948

my
1960

Apr.
1953

Apr.
1957

Feb.
196C

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

7
1
3
1

12
1

4
1

22

1

2
2

14
2
1
3
2
1

11
1

3
4

4
1

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

0

2

19
16

1

4

3
*18

1
1

2
2
3
1

1

]

20

23
0

23
0

*18
0

2

19
21

23
0

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

1

2

1
1

3

1
3

1
..
.

1
2

1
1

4
1
2

2
3
3
11
27

1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached

11
9

5
11
45

2
2
3
2
3
11
27

4
4
11
36

6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948

Jan.
1953

Jan.
1957

Nov.
1959

••

1
1
4
4
11
36

2
3
3
11
27

Current expansion
June
1964

July
1964

Aug.
1964

Sep196*

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7 months

•

6
1

2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3

17
1
1
1

19
16

23
4

4
2
3 months

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2
2
1
!8
l
6

2

1
1
1

4
4
4
2
4
1
2
2
23
9

10
1
1

10
1

9
1

1
4
4
2

2
3
2
4

2
1
**4
6

23
9

23
17

23
26

1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

1

1

7 months
6 months

4
2

4
3 months
Benchmark month.
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2
1
5
11
45

2
3
6
11
55

5
3
11
27

2
3
11
27

1
4
6
11
55

1
1
*9
11
82

1
1
2
7
11
64

All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15),
and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitt
from the distribution.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War a
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.




35

Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.--21 indus.

Do. New orders, dur. goods Indus.—36 indus.

D 11. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 indus. ,NICB
interval •-*-.!-Q interval) v

D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits—700 cos. (1-Q interval)

D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks— 80 indus

D23. Industrial materials prices—I 3 indus. mtls.

D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.-47 areas
'inverted.)

II III III III n III MINI ii ii ttiH Nut ii ii ii III lii lii it itmitttet hi it Mi ii in In III ii In in in in in III In

1948

1949 1950

1951

1952

1953 1954

?e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1955 1956

1957 1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 1963

1964

36

Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES:

1948 TO P R E S E N T - - C o n .

NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(Jdy)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Percen1

: 1

D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments-30 indus.
(6-mo. interval i
]-mo. interval
)

nlOO
50

0

D47. Industrial production--24 indus.
(6-mo. interval
1-mo. interval*

)

100
50

0

D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods--23 indus.
(6-mo, intervoli • 1-mo. interval••
)

100
50

0

D54. Sales of retail stores--24 types of stores
(9-mo. intervo'*— 1-mo. interval^
)

(

too
50

0

llnlnll. ..lullllll nLl.MJJJ,, JnlnL n

1948

1949 1950 1951

1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1964

37

Analytical Measures
CHART 3 b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT

(Nov.)
P

(July)
P

(Oct.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Actual
Anticipated

D35. Net sales, all mfrs.--800 cos.
(percent--4-Q interval)

-1 o
D36, New orders, dur. goods mfrs.--400 cos.
(percent-4-Q interval)

D48. Carloadings—19 mfrd. commodity groups
(percent--4-Q interval)

100

*?

"v^A

VyV

50
0

D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars—4-Q interval)

D61. New plant and equipment expend.—17-22 indus.
(percent-1-Q interval)

1948

1949 1950

1951 1952

1953

1954

1955 1956

1957 1958

1959

1960

1961

ata are centered within intervals. Latest data areas follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 i(July 1964)
D48 (June 1 $64)
D 6 1 (August 1964)

"How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




Latest interval shown
Actual

Anticipated

2nd Q 1963 - 2nd Q 1964
3rd Q 1962- 3rd Q 1963
IstQ 1964- 2ndQ 1964

4th Q 1963- 4th 0 1964
3rd Q 1 963 - 3rd Q 1964
3rdQ 1964 - 4th Q 1964

1962 1963

1964

38

Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT

Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
6-month figures are placed on the 4-th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes

Year and
month

D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)

Dl. Average workweek,
manufac tur ing
(21 industries)
1-month
interval

9 -month
interval1

1-month
interval

9 -month
interval1

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
NICE (17 industries)
3 -quarter
interval

1-quarter
interval

1961
95.2
71.4
54.8
81.0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73.8
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8

March
April
May
July

August
October
November

38.1
85.7
76.2
95.2
90.5
100.0
95.2
90.5
61.9
95.2
88.1
92.9

33.3
48.6
66.7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3

59.7
56.9
66.7
80.6
72.2
88.9
81.9
83.3
79.2
86.1
76.4
80.6

14.3
73.8
73.8
76.2
21.4
28.6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5

85.7
81.0
52.4
31.0
50.0
50.0
38.1
35.7
21.4
33.3
50.0
26.2

63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2

77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4

52.4
73.8
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
42.9
66.7
57.1
21.4
83.3

59.5
40.5
81.0
71.4
66.7
73.8
59.5
66.7
38.1
69.0
69.0
76.2

63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5

88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8

0.0
85.7
28.6
78.6
35.7
21.4
r6l.9
69.0
P28.6

78.6
45.2
42.9
83.3
P35.7

55.6
44-4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
r63.9
37.5
P45.8

76.4
83.3
80.6
76.4
p72.2

53

59

59

65

*76

71

47

65

65

41

'32

82

82

53

59

74

47

53

59

*53

*59

*65

53

71

47

71

71

'65

1962

March
April
May
June
July

September
October . . . .
....
November

1963
torch
April
May
June
July
AiipnjR-t.
October
December.
1964

torch
April
toy
July

August
September
October
December




"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.

'65

Analytical Measures

39

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA, not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued

Year and
month

D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(around 700
corporations)
1-quarter
interval

47

"60

*58

October

*56

1962
January

54

April

47

toy

*48

July

$ppt.en>berT

1-month
interval

9 -month
interval2

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)

1-month
interval

9 -month
interval2

*56

November

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
1-month
interval

9 -month
interval2

86.9
96.2
85.6
72.5
81.9
40.0
42.5
81.2
40.0
46.9
87.5
55.0

97.5
97.5
97.5
97.5
95.6
81.2
76.2
73.7
71.2
67.5
70.0
62.5

42.3
76.9
84.6
73.1
53.8
46.2
53.8
46.2
61.5
38.5
15.4
61.5

61.5
53.8
61.5
53.8
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
61.5
30.8

Revised2
59.6
17.0
78.7
44.7
53.2
66.0
46.8
55.3
51.1
80.9
74.5
27.7

25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4

17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0

76.9
38.5
38.5
15.4
42.3
26.9
23.1
34.6
61.5
53.8
84.6
r6l.5

30.8
30.8
30.8
30.8
23.1
23.1
30.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
53.8
57.7

42.6
83.0
38.3
51.1
42.6
19.1
66.0
55.3
42.6
39.4
69.1
40.4

83.0
57.4
51.1
34.0
48.9
44.7
40.4
25.5
25.5
42.6
79.8
59.6

97.5
78.7
43.7
9.
12
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
4.
49
44-9
68.4

95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4

r53.8
r53.8
50.0
38.5
50.0
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
76.9
69.2
53.8

61.5
69.2
61.5
53.8
53.8
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
57.7
76.9

23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
4A.7
61.7
31.9
34.0

38.3
68.1
74.5
57.4
63.8
87.2
48.9
34.0
85.1
59.6
57.4
74.5

74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3

83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6

61.5
57.7
38.5
61.5
38.5
50.0
65.4
61.5
53.8
3
76.9

61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
3
76.9

85.1
12.8
66.0
75.5
51.1
51.1
59.6
57.4
55.3

69.1
70.2
69.1
76.6
87.2

Revised2

1961
March
April
May
June
July

D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
(80 industries)1

59.6
53.2
64.9
85.1
72.3
89.4
100.0
95.7
87.2
97.9
91.5
80.9

1963
50

March
April

*59

teiy

*56

July

August

55

1964
57

torch
April
May
July

October

60

(NA)

l-The diffusion index is based on 82 components, January 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.
18 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 23 components, are shown in the direct!on-of-change table (table 6).
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
3
Average for October 13, 14, and 15.




Analytical Measures

40

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

NBER Roughly Coincident indexes

Year and
month

D41. Number of employees D47. Index of industrial
in nonagricultural
production
establishments
(24 industries)
(30 industries)
1-month
interval

6-month
interval1

1-month
interval

6 -month
interval1

D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing industries)

1 -month
interval

1-month
interval

6 -month
interval1

9-month
interval1

1961
February
March
April
May
July
August
October
December
1962
February
March. .
April
Ifey

July

August
October
December
1963
January
February
April
May
July
October

45.0
33.3
61.7
56.7
86.7
88.3
70.0
70.0
56.7
71.7
81.7
63.3

20.0
30.0
66.7
78.3
90.0
90.0
86.7
86.7
83.3
75.0
81.7
81.7

56.3
50.0
62.5
70.8
72.9
91.7
77.1
72.9
54.2
87.5
83.3
75.0

52.1
66.7
87.5
93.8
91.7
87.5
95.8
91.7
91.7
87.5
87.5
95.8

58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4

41.7
58.3
62.5
68.8
79.2
85.4
87.5
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6

39.1
47.8
41.3
65.2
45.7
37.0
50.0
56.5
60.9
39.1
47.8
56.5

37.0
34.8
37.0
45.7
47.8
47.8
39.1
45.7
52.2
50.0
54.3
56.5

55.0
80.0
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
45.0
33.3
43.3

85.0
88.3
83.3
76.7
70.0
71.7
58.3
38.3
35.0
43.3
40.0
51.7

25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4

83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5

58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7

87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3

69.6
43.5
52.2
58.7
45.7
43.5
39.1
41.3
54.3
34.8
45.7
39.1

60.9
60.9
58.7
54.3
60.9
47.8
32.6
45.7
39.1
30.4
23.9
26.1

63.3
48.3
83.3
66.7
85.0
61.7
75.0
48.3
r43.3
65.0
r45.0
70.0

56.7
70.0
71.7
71.7
73.3
75.0
73.3
58.3
58.3
45.0
63.3
76.7

79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1

83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3

50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1

70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1

39.1
43.5
37.0
41.3
58.7
63.0
47.8
58.7
58.7
76.1
69.6
60.9

30.4
45.7
54.3
52.2
50.0
58.7
71.7
76.1
73.9
69.6
67.4
67.4

80.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
76.7
p76.7

58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
r75.0
r62.5
p56.2

91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5
p87.5

43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
r45.8
r62.5
p22.9

79.2
100.0
85.4
87.5
p70.8

58.7
63.0
45.7
63.0
43.5
45.7
r65.2
r67.4
P54.3

73.9
67.4
60.9
50.0
60.9
p63.0

1964
torch
April
May
June
July
September

43.3
83.3
76.7
63.3
60.0
70.0
r70.0
r41.7
P58.3

November
December
a

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.




Analytical Measures

41

Toble 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: ^.-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available.
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
( 0 companies)
80
Year and
month

D36. New orders, durable manufactures
( 0 companies)
40

D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)

4-quarter
interval

4-quarter
interval

4-quarter
interval

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval

Change in
total ( 0 )
00

Actual

Anticipated

1961
28.1

46 !
9

73.7

*82

88

*82

*86

73*7

89!5

*86

78

*82

63 \2

89^5

*88

*76

*84

57.9

94.7

"so

*74

*74

63 \2

89.5

*74

71

70

42 !l

68.4

-66

*74

82

*76

*76

63 '.2

63 '.2

+28

*76

80

77

*76

73*.7

78.9

+39

'74

80

*76

*76

(NA)

68 '.I

+44

*82

*84

*82

*80

78*.9

+39

*84

*85

*82

*84

73 ".7

-35

(NA)

87

(NA)

*8A

68^4

75*. 0

-96

72

(NA)

-67

*76

50.0

+62

"so

62! 5

+125

*81

50.0

+79

July
August. . . . .
....

75.0

71.9

68 !i

71.9

71.9

*78

75^6

75.6

'73

50.0

65 !
6

"S3

6B\B

40.6

*74

65 '6
.

-28

May

68!8

65 '.6

89!5

62.5

6s'.$

36.8

65'.6

65.6

78

62.5

59 .*4

72

53 !l

56!2

82

37.5

46 .*9

72

ilo

March
April

October

1962

March
April

May
July

December . . . .
...

1963

Jferch
April
Jfey

July
Septeniber . T . » » r
October . . . .
....
November

1964

March
April

May
June , . T . . . . T . T .
July

October . . . .
....




*86

"si

6S."s

Analytical Measures

42
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3.00-UBf
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inf-q-OQ

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to

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l>
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3
CO

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CO

vtdv— ~rnp

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111

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Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
9-month spans

1-month spans

CX

1
i—1

1
ttD

-P >
8 O
Z
1
1
CX -P

0
Q)
Q
1
>

« 8&

Jan-Feb

fafl

1
C

De-c-Jan

rH

1963"

1964

1963
23 industry components1

^

>>

1i

I

C

bo

C

p<

3
<C

1

29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76 53 35 90 41 76
600 stock orices
Coal

bituminous

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -

Publishing

-.TT^

- 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -

..

B 'Id'
t ' 1
Steel
Metal fabricating
nf , .

6

e

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 44- 4 - 4 44- 4-

-

-

44-

't

44-

44- 4- 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

j Yn^'

Automobiles

e e]p

+

- 4 - 4 -

- 4 - 4 4-

- 4 - 4 -

,

'
-, .

t

-

+
4-

444-

44-

4- 4- 4- 4 - 4 0 + 4-

0
4444-

+
444-

+
+
+
+

44444444-

4444444-

4444444-

4444444-

44-

-

+
4-

444-

44+

44-

+
+

+
+

+
O

+
+
+
+

+

-

-

4-

+
+

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-

4-

+

4-

+

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+
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4-

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4-

4-

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4-

4-

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0
?
JH

"7 1* i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

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i

8 i a« ss

99 95 89 85 78 80 78 69 71 84 83 78 86 86 85
4-

+

+

+

4-

+

+
4-

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

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4444444-

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-p

3 % 8i & &
i
i i
bo fX -p >
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1964

+
+
+

+
+

+
4-

+

44-

+ + +

+ +

4+

+

+

+

+
+

+
4-

+
44-

444-

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
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+
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+
+

4-

+

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&

+
+

+ + + + + + + +

+

+

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

- 0 - -

+

+

+

+

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
1
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 42
Based on 80 industries to August 1963; on 79 industries, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.




o
C/3
£2

+

+

rt

+ +

+

+
+

+
44-

n

Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
9-month spans

1-month spans

C

Percent rising
All industrial materials. .. • * . . .

UO
3
<3
1
rH

ft

<U
CO
1

bfl

-p>
0
CD
1

ft

0

a
-p

...

.

4 - 0 - 4 -

-

-

4- +

4-

4-

-

c

Cd

•-3

4 - 0

±

C0

I
cd

(JH

1i

S

+

r-1

QD

3

f-

a

< u
1

H

t

1I
4-

4-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- 44- 4-

444-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 44- 4-

-

/?y"\

Print cloth (yd )
Wool tops (ib )

o
<D

Zinc (ib.)
P

i

1

a

?

£

54 54 54 77 69 54 62 58 38 62 38 50 65 62 54 77
•«•••

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

p

rQ

1

O

8

Copper scrap (ib. )

Tin (ib )

C
«

Sep-Oct1

fH
3
"7>
1

1963

1964

1963
13 industrial materials components

44-

4-

t—1
3
»~3
1

txD
3
<aj
1

ft

-P
O
O
1

I
1

a

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CO
1

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a
fn

S

0
4-

4-4-

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+
+
+
4 -

4- +
+ 4- 44 - 4 -

1

,

Q

1

?

H

?

1

H

1

f

>

1

5

C

1

r

H

t

1

t

l

O

f

t

-

P

>

0

- 3 < l ! C O 0 2 Q

1

1

1

1

1

( H > s C r H b £ l f t - P > O C ^ ? H
ftcdlJ^I^<l>OOl)aJ<Ujd
• ^ S t - a ^ ^ c O O Z Q i - o f i H S

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4+
+

4-

44t-

- +
+ -

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4-

4-

+
+
4-

4-

C

c d < u j f l f t j d ^ d ^ a ) o o a )

t - D f r H S * 3 l S l - 3

62 54 54 62 62 62 62 54 58 77 62 69 62 69 69 77

+
4-

44-

o

1964

4-4- 4-

4-

4-

4-

-

-

+
+
+

-

444-

-

44-

4-

4-

+ + ' + 4 - + +
+
4 - _ _ 4 - 4 - 4 - - f

+
+

+
+

+
+

4-

averase

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

-

4-

-

4-

Hides (ib. )
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (ib. )

-

-

-

4-

+

Ta 1 1 nu f 1 hi ^

4-

4-

4-

O 4-

-

O

4 - 4 - 4 - + - - - - - -

-

-

-

rt
^

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
direction of change is determined.
^•Average for October 13, 14, and 15.




4-

-

+

+

4-

4-

4-

-

+

-

-

-

-

- - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

4-

4-

4-

-

4-

n'

- - 0 - -

44- 4 - 4 - 4 -

g
o
s
o

4+

- - - 4 -

4-

Series components are seasonally adjusted (except for all-industry totals) by the Bureau of the Census before the

Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
9-month spans

1-month spans

-P
<D
#•%

1963

S3
15

26 area components

in
•-3
I
c

ho ex -P
<S $ <S
i
I
i
rH hn a

1963

1964
> o
z: S
i
i
-P >

C

Q f

f

>

C : i - l b D P

- P > 0

1964

H

H

i

<

rH

bfl

Q4

-P

>

O

C , Q
^i
^
> i C i - l b D P 4 - P
>
O
{ d ( D a J p j d l ^ ^ ^ a ) ( D O < D
» - 3 C n S < j : S | : : 3 » - 3 ' < q c 0 0 5 5 Q

-P

r

>

0

C

,0

^H

H
r
( X i i ^ ^ ^ ^ o o <Q J a J c u j f l
< ^ S i - D > - 3 < i 3 c o O 2 ; Q ^ p j H S

%&£3;g223%8g& 2 3 & 8 £ &
i i i i i i i i i i i i
O C , j Q ^ ^ > s C r - l b D C X - P >
< u
t
3 5 3 $ 3 g Q ^ tc idH< Su <j as ll Sf ^ ' -a 7i )^ <( i^; ^c (Ou0 o2 o: 8 £ a fi & £

II

JCO

>

43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76 51 51 60 57 55
- - - +
+ — + + + —
+ +

1

F

1

1

1

1

1

> > C r H t u D P

1

1

1

- P > O C

1

1

1

Q f H

74 57 64 87 49 34 85 60 57 74 69 70 69 77 87
+ +
+ + + + + +

NORTHEAST REGION

7
16 Buffalo
11
1 New York
ft

+

+

f-

+

O

4~

Hh

+

+

+

+

+ + +

+ + -

+

-h

-h

+ + +
+
+
— — +
+
— + - +
— +
-f•+•

+
+

•+•

+

+

-

+

+

_f-

_

-

+ -t-

+ - +

- -

—

-f-

+

+
+
—

91

/

+

T

+

Philadelphia*
Pittsburgh

..

?3

+

+

•+•

+
+

-i+

NORTH CENTRAL REGION

3 Chicago
"IK

in

+

Cleveland **

»

?6
«; Detroit
?*i
?? Kansas City
1^
1?
q

St

+

+
+

4"
+
+

+

+
-h
—

•+•
+
+

H-

+

+
+
+
+ +•
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+ -h

4+
+

rt
^

+
+

+

+
+

-H

+

O

+ + —
+ + + +

g
n>

+

+

+

,
+

+

+•

+

+

-1-

+

+

+
+

-4-

+

+
+

-1-

+

+

+

4- + f
+ +
h
H - - - - - - 4 -

+

+

+
+

+
+

Louis
SOUTH REGION

20
12
17

Atlanta
Baltimore
Dallas
Houston

+

+

+

"H

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+
+
+

+ +
+ +•
-+ +

+

+

+ + - + - _
+
+

4-

-

- + - + _ + _ _ _ +

-

+

-H

+

-

+

+

-*-

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

WEST REGION

?

—

Portland

6
IP

Seattle*

-f

_ _
+

+

+

+

—

-f

+

_ _

+

--+

-f- —
+ 4- +
+ + + + —

- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Designated ty Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in September 1 6 .
94
**Designated by Bureau of Bnployment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in September 1964.
1
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 2 .
6'




Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued

ON
(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
6-month spans

1-month spans

1963
30 industry components

r-1
d
*-*
I
c

M a -P
3 <t> o
< c/D O
l
I
I
i-t be a

1963

1964
>
o
2:
I
-p

o
CL>
Q
I
>

^ ^ 3 $ 8 S

a t a ^ ^ l > > C r - i h o P < - P > o
- 3 t L , S < ^ S ' - T > t : o < c o O 2 : Q
1 1 Q 1 f H1 ? H > 1 i C 1 r H1 h D P 1 4 - 1 P >
1
1
1
O C
< ^
i P
s i ' ^ ^ <
o
Q u c>d i <^ i , ) zc : t < i !< sj ^ ) ^ -r 7 ) < ic )oc oj ^

|

r

75 48 43 65 45 70 43 83 77 63 60 70 70 42 58
+

r\

+

4-

+

0
+

0
+

+
+

+

+
+

-

4-

4-

-

o +

o

-

+

4-4+

+
+

+

+

o

+

+

+

+

-

4

+

-

O

+

O

-

+

jfl
S

-P
0
O
1
f-i

B«
<U

>
O
2
1
>i

jj
2

O
0)
Q
1
C

^
1-3

0

+

-

+

k-

-

4-

-

o

+

+

-

+

0

-

0

0

+

O

O

-

-

-

0

0

-

+

+

C , 0

?H

fn

'>»

P

r-4

l

i

l

i

i

t X O C U - P

+

0

-

+

+

4-

+ 4 - 4 - 4 +

4

0 4 -

4

- 4- 44 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- -f4f
+
+

l

l

l

+

-f-

-

+

+
0

-

+

-

o o o -

-

-

-

--

0

+ +O

( - 5 < t J O Q O S Q ' - - D f L i 2 5

-

°

+

+ 0

< :

+-

+

4-

4 - 4 - + - 4 - - I - 4 - 4 f44"f
4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

0 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

44-

4-

44-

44-

4f

f
-

4F 4 _ _ 4 -

-

4-

-

4-

4-

44-

O

+
f.

+
o

+
4-

- H 44-

+
4-

rt
^

o'

-

4

-

4

-

-

-

4

-

-

-

0 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - -

+

+ * + I t

o-o
4

-

-

f

f 4 -

-

+

-

+

+

4 - 4 - 4 -

o
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

_ 4 - - k -

Leather and leather products ....... ...........
Mining

+

-

-

-

+

4 - _

+

4-

-

0

4-

-

-

- - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

0

-

-

+

-

+

+

4-4-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Services and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government




+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.

+

+ + _ - -

4+
+
4+
-

+
+
+
4-

+
0
0
o
0
+

+ -k- +
+ 0 +
+ 0 +
+ - +
+ - +
4r 4- +

-k--k--kV 4 - *-

0 -

+

+-

+

+

+
+
- 4 -

_.(.
+ _

+

+

4 - 0

+

0 + - 4 - 4 - 4 -

l

t { I E H ' ~ 3

0 - 4 _-_

+ +
-

0

l

r - l b D O u - P > O C ^ ^ f - i t > s C

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

O

l

-

+ +

+
+

i

4-

-

o

-

000

0

+

-

+ -+
-

+

-

- + 4 -

+

-

+ 4 - 0 4 _ + +

+ +0
_ 4 - - k +

+

-

>

c
ic - do o - ,j Sj < ti 5i Si ia- ^ ^ - i o r <i t cJ u o O 2a Q
d j
3'
c o o ;

72 73 75 73 58 58 45 63 77 80 75 80 83 77 77

+

+
-

+O

-

-

-

+
-

+

- 0 - Textile mill products

-

+

-

+

r<u
fo

PJ
Q)
OQ
1
fn

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4-

Instruments and related products. ..

cd
hs

tlO
3
<tj
1
,Q

4-

+

+

r—l
•3
i-o
1
C

1964

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 0
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

g
O

Analytical Measures

47

oaa-unr

AON-/:BW
400-Jdv
das-JBW
Sny-qajl
inr-UBf
3
CO

c
ft

r-H

unp-oaa
^BW-AON

CO

tO

•

t o
'

C V +

JBW-dag

(^

to

qa^-Sny

to

+

.

'

.

•

.

'

.

• 4 - + « 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - . 4 - 4 - ' + 4

• 4 - 4 - 1

. 4-

- 4 +

. + 4 - . + +

. 1 4 - 1

.4-4-

•

•

.

.

.

.

•

•

•

•

•

•

1

•4

I I - 4 - 4 -

•

+

. , 4

oaQ-unf

•

AON-/:BW

!>+

. I + . + + + 4 . . + + . 4 . 4 -

. + + + . +

a

^oo-^dv

(M

• ! - » -

• + + ' + +
.

.

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das-JBW

t o

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inp-uBf

ON

'.

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• +
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+

+

• +

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Sny-qa^

+

4

| +

4-

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QN

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+ 4 - ' + 4-

4

;

.+

.

. 4 + 4 . . 4. 4-

p

+

+ 4-

4-

O
f>

l

; + +

•

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uBr-inr

a:
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+ + 4 +

.

S3

.

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.

S3

.

.

•

ON

"°

S3 S3

«

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£

•

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1

I

4 + « 4 - + - 4 - l + ' 4 - |

.

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+

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1

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1

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| . 4 . + + « 4 - l

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4-

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.

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oaa-AON

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4 oo -das
uo

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CO

^
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cd
ft

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^Bw-Jdy
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c-

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iH 4-

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. 4 . 4 . 4 - 4 + 1

.

|

to

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.

r-4

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+ g g g

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g g

++

g

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f

g g g '

l | + + l

g

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:

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4

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, | + . + + | + . +
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24- industry components

a •




P C x Q g C Q p S f - i O ' C D C D ' C D ' C D c O

H

p D o J O
-P-pfla^fnpl
O C D X
Q D H Q
O^trHccJft'HCD
rHTJpiO'H

•H-H
^ ^
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_3
1

-P ^

C C

^
- P C D O O C i d T J c d O - H
r Q i—I C D f n l ^ O ^ O c r f C
PnS'dtO
*H-P
TJ
-PW
CO
TJOtJO
C D T ^ f l ^ i—I c d - P ^ C O T J C
CD

TJ£3cDcrffc>»a}-P^coaJCaJ(DC
P l - P

H O S n C D c O r H c d

PnaJ

C Q ( D «

••

S C l C O » ^ i O

W

cd

Cvj

S3«Jrd
pJ'-PrHplo-P-HctJCD
O
OCOrdtjDOrQ<D^iO-P
bDCO

HCD
pi

6

rHftOfH'HTJftO
T J C d C O f n O
CD
plft-PO
P n T J O i—I C D C D P S

CtJS
s3cd

-P
£H

a j i—l O ' d T H f t S C D a J f t
ctJCDO
ft-HfnC!^
ajft
TJfHrQP-i

ftSftcd
cd

ft-rJ

cog£<D

C3tiD^rHplc(J>rd

ft

T ^ ^ d C D
dCD-H

cd^d-rJ

O-Hd

^ | I lI| !l p!l|!l|lil|il ^i|il
! |i i I ll

-H O
ft
Crf -H g
v t> -P O

Oj O

O

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D54)

1-month spans

1963
24 retail store components

i—i

bD

ft

*~?
1

<Z
1

t/3
1

P

r-t

bD

t?

Percent rising

^

3

9-month spans
1963

1964

-P

>

0

8 a S
i i i
ft -p >

% 8 £

C r £ 3 f H f H > s p 1 - l b D f t - P > 0
C d D j S j f t j t i ^ ' J ^ C U O O C U
^ - o f u S - ^ S ^ D ^ ^ C O O ^ Q

1

O

P

1

1

r

Q

^

1

(

^

1

>

i

1

P

Q i - o t i H § < 3 ; s

r

|

1

-

l

1

b

1

D

f

1

t

-

1

P

4-4-44- 4f-

r-1

1

>

- 3 ^ < i : c o o 2 :

67 65 25 58 54 77 44 71 52 52 67 67 46 62 23
+ _ _ + - +

Other food stores

oo

Sales of Retail Stores

2fl
3
i!
>
3
S

8 =

ft
<U
CO
O
1>
Q

1964

-P
O
0
C
cd
I-D

>
O
12
,£>
1)
fe

0
0)
G
JH
oj
S

p p a ? - i ^ f > s p r - i b o f t - p > o
c d O J ^ l f t j s i i ^ ^ ^ D O O d )
- 3
- D < ) W O 2 : Q
I
I
I
I
i
I
i
I
I
I
i
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K 3 p l H S < l J S
f

-

i

>

s

P

r

-

)

t

|

l

|

O

f

t

-

P

>

O

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4-

-

-

0

_

^

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- -h
h 4-

4-

+

+

+
+

Q

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +• +- t-

4-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4 - 4 - - o 4 - - + f _
+

4-1f

4-

0

-

-

4-

0 4 - - - - + + 4-4-

4 - 4 - 4 - -f
+ 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

+

+

- -

+

i - - i - h f -

+

-

+
4-

Variety stores

+

r

85 77 60 52 62 88 71 92 83 77 79 100 85 88 71

- 4 - 4 -

+

P

• ^ § l - ^ > - 3 < ^ W O S O H 3 t i - i S

_

+

--

+

-

+

+

__

- + 0
- 4 - 4 -

K*"

- 4 - 4 -

- 4 - - 4 - i - 4 - -

Shoe stores. . • > . * . . • • . . . . . . . . * . . «
Furniture stores

.. • • . . . . . .

+
+

+
-

_
+

- 4 - 4 *- - -

+

_

4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - -

+

_

+
44-

O + 4-4-4-

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire and battery dealers

Liquor stores
Other durable goods stores
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling,
mined.




- _ +
+ + _
0 4 - 4 - O + - _

- 4 - 4 -

44-

i4-

-

4- - 44-4-44-4-4-

- 4 - Q

+

4 - - -

-

+

4-4- _ 4 - 4 - -+
+ +
_ _ + - - h - _ - | - _

0 - 4 - - 4 - 4 4-

+

+

- Q

4-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - _

4 - -

+

4-

-

+

-

f
t- 4- 44- 4- 4- 44 - 0 0 - 4 4+

-fO
-

H
0

f
4-

444-

+

-[-f

<^T
O

4-

+

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

-

-

-

-f

+

4-

+

-

+

+

-

+ +
---

+

4-4+ +

-

+

+ + + +

+

+

-

-

Q

-

+

-

&

-

-

+

O

+ 4 -

+

+

-

^

+

-H

+

+

4444-f
0

t4-

-f
-

Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census

0
-

44-

+

+ +
- f -

+ +
+ -

before the direction of change

is deter-

Analytical Measures

49

oaa-unr
AON-A'ISW
400-^dv
dag-.iBW

vO

Snv-qaj

CO

c
ex

3
(—1

•H +

1 4 4 4 4 4

mr-uBf

0 1

+ + + + + +

1 1 4 4 4 1
I

O

+

1

'

4 4 1 1 4 +

1

+

1 1 +

I I I I + +

I

1

+

1 1 +

unf-oaa

ASW-AQN

CO

.idy-400
.i*W-d3g

-p
c

f>+

++O

+ + + + +I

1 + 1 + + +

1 + 1 1 +

-<r+

+ + I + + +

+ +I

+ + + + +I

I+ + + + +

1 + 1 1 +

O+

+ + I + + +

+ + + 0+I

1O + + + +

+ + +

+ + +I

+

I

+ + + +

+ + +I

+

+ I

UBf-inp

0+

I

I+

+ + + +

oaa-unf

-tl

+I+

+ + +

+ + + I + +

I+

+ + + +

AON-A^W

^0 +

+ Q O + + +

+ + + I I +

+ + + + + +

+ 0 1 +

1

c^

^ dag-.iBW

++I
+

1

1

+

1

l + l + l

^oo-Jdv

rH

!+

£>

II+

1 0 1 + 1

qa^-Sny
LU
Qi
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O

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+ + +

J>4

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+ I I + + +

+ + 0 + I +

+ + I I + +

+

1

1

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Sny-q^

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+ I I + + +

+ + I I I +

+ + I I O +

+

1

1

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Cyclical Patterns

50

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins \ 'ith
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

—
0

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.

9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus

I I I I I I I I M II I
*- Reference trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.

29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits

24. Mfrs.1 new orders
mach. and equip, indus

- 130

120

- no
100

-190

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For senei
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i«
set'at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.




Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|

51

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Index

I I I I I IM I I I I I I I I M I I I I! I

Nov. 1948 to Apr, 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

-<- Reference trough dates

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.

i M 1 1 1 1 1 1 T pi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-<- Reference trough dates

MOO

90L

180r

19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

160 140

120

*100

80
-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

_12

-6

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from reference troughs

* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.




52

Cyclical Patterns

CHART 4|

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

| I I I M I I I I I I I I l-l | I I II I I I I I I I I I I I | I

Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr 1958)
May 1960 to present! (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

—
~

Reference trough dates

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.

43. Unemployment rate,
total /Inverted./

nor

10541. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

*ioo

95L

llOr-

105-

*100

95 L

95

-6

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100" For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100", For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|

53

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I I I I I I I I I II I I I II I I I II I I I II II I II

Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
0

Index

Reference trough dates

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.

lnd(

95L
-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns

54

CHART 4|

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Index

Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.

-illO
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.

-105

120r

110 -

Business expenditures,
plant and equipment

*100

67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans

64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries

90 L
-6

0

+6

+12+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+42

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serie
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
Last 2 quarters anticipated.




Cyclical Patterns

55

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date 1 of each series for each expansion.
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 45 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949

9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus.
bldgs.3

1958

1954

1961

1. Avg. workweek, prod
workers, mfg.

24. Mfrs.' new orders,
mach. and equip, indus

*100

+ 12

+18

+24

+30

Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+42

Months from specific troughs

"* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
^ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.




Cyclical Patterns

56

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date 1 of each series for each expansion.
I i I l I I I i l I ll I I l I I l I l l l

PERIOD COVERED

-^-Specific trough dates

2

From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of~
1949

1958

1954

— 1961

I I I I II I I II III I I I II I Ml II I I I I I I II I I III I I I I I I

Specific trough dates

.•. / '•

19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

100

'100
II I I ll I I I I I I I I I I i l l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0

+6

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

+6

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series wit
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is se
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specif!
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2.




Cyclical Patterns

57

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index

PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 45 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—

115
T i l l M I I I II I I I I I I II I I I I I | I I I I I | M I I I | I I I I | | I
41. Employees in nonagr
establishments

j-<-Specific trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]

H110

100

MiiiiliiiuliniiluiuliiniKiiiilunilnil
0

+6

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

*Specif^c trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
in MCD oi "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
it "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
roughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




Cyclical Patterns

58

Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or mor<
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month i,
used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. Se<
also MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in —

Months
after
reference
trough1

July
1921

July
1924

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Aug.
1954

Apr.
1958

Feb.
1961

43
42
42

(NA)
40.7
24.1

95.8
27.6
29.5

85.2
33.1
47.9

74.5
57.4
80.0

105.3
146.0
96.8

102.5
119.6
183.3

95.1
61.6
45.2

101.8
120.0
111.8

101. f
102. ',
171. /

43
43

163.9
185.4

117.8
171.4

49.2
36.6

74.2
59.8

(NA)
162.6

168.7
118.6

104.2
82.1

120.5
111.2

129. £
117. <

42

38.6

108.4

32.9

38.8

200.6

130.1

107.8

106.2

117.^

42
43
39
43
43
43

70.4
19.8
78.0
(NA)
120.8
68.9

102.6
98.0
75.0
(NA)
199.8
80.9

96.6
63.9
5.7
(NA)
106.5
55.3

71.1
(NA)
47.1
(NA)
56.1
79.2

63.1
142.6
218.6
(NA)
55.0
108.8

123.7
85.5
95.5
97.6
162.5
80.0

130.3
53.1
103.6
94.9
173.4
96.2

137.4
40.6
97.3
101.6
146.5
95.3

104. £
71.c
141.:
102. ^
151.J
103. c

43

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

163.5

113.7

117.5

124. r

43

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

115.7

117.,

43
43
43
42
42
43
43
43

84.8
(NA)
109.5
(NA)
(NA)
103.6
(NA)
109.4

92.8
(NA)
104.1
119.6
121.7
126.9
114.5
108.8

77.7
(NA)
80.6
85.6
100.7
84.6
89.6
89.2

91.8
(NA)
97.0
80.2
99.0
67.0
79.3
89.5

119.7
(NA)
148.9
149.8
(NA)
133.8
143.1
130.8

111.8
146.5
136.4
138.7
125.5
142.5
134.6
127.0

101 . 6
39.4
94.2
117.4
105.3
126.8
121.9
115.8

103.4
68.1
112.4
119.8
112.5
128.9
120.7
111.8

108.;
100. (
121.*
124.'

43

66.0

86.8

75.2

87.9

109.4

108.3

109.0

101.2

100. (

39
45

48.0
54.8

90.8
100.2

54.3
41.4

55.4
64.7

(NA)
(NA)

125.1
129.5

128.9
107.9

91.9
94.6

119. «'
127.:

43
42
42

75.6
(NA)
(NA)

88.7
(NA)
(NA)

83.3
(NA)
(NA)

81.7
84.2
110.0

115.1
(NA)
153.0

111.1
151.7
(NA)

115.4
115.3
152.8

99.8
103.8
128.7

in.;
139. <

42

79.3

88.6

91.5

54.7

141.3

120.4

102.7

93.:

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2 . Accession rate, manufacturing.
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
16. Corporate profits after taxes ( Q) .
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices...
24. Value of manuf actxirers ' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43 . Unemployment rate total ( inverted )
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
52 . Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods

117.;
141.;
123. <

120.;

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment , total ( Q) :3
a
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
64. Manufacturers1 inventories, book value.,.,..
66. Consumer installment debt.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)

(NA)

97.'

NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the pea
had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A fc
the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
•'-Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (actus
expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1 6 )
94.




Cyclical Patterns

59

Table 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
'or series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or
more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Months
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
after
beginning in —
referJuly
July
Nov. Mar.
ence
June
Oct. Aug. Apr.
1924
1938
1954
1933
trough1 1921
1949
1927
1958

Feb.
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
43
42
42

+4.6
+4.8 -13.2 +10.5 +20.7 +3.3
-2.5 +5.2 +3.0
(NA) +28.5 -54.7 +40.2 +63.4 +34.6 -15.1 +30.7 -5.0
(NA) -4.8 -32.4 +116 7 +95.2 +173.3 -30.1 +88.2 +95.2

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
.4. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
6. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
.9. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....

43
43

+132.2 + 5.2 -50.7
+89.3 +73.1 -64.8

(NA) +94.7 +16.4
(NA)
(NA) +73.1 -15.3 -29.9
(NA) +50.8 +11.2

42

+41.8

42
43
39
43
43
43

-2.8 +38.6 -6.9 -10.3 -26.7
(NA) +93.8
+17.7
+8.7 -30.6
(NA)
(NA) +39.3 -92.3 +33.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+63.4 +91.8 -18.7 +171.1 -12.5
+64.7 -3.6 -43.3 +90.7 +60.8

+56.1

-62.1 +224.4

+18.3
-27.1
+22.2
-1.2
+56.3
+6.6

+10.3
-44.3
+21.6
-3.4
+37.0
-3.8

+36.5 +38.5
+14.6 +17.6
+35.0

+26.1

+43.9
-46.1
+28.7
+7.4
+67.9
+9.6

+12.6
-26.5
+63.6
+5.0
+-34.2
+9.0

4. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin43

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA) +86.5 +22.1 +33.0 +31.5

43

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

-6.7

43
43
43
42
42
43
43
43

+23.1
(NA)
+60.3
+34.5
+33.5
+33.7
+37.8
+16.7

+6.8
(NA)
+26.7
+22.4
+22.0
+31.0
+14.5
+8.8

-19.0
(NA)
-14.3
-14.7
-1.6
-22.2
-11.2
-10.8

+34.2
+83.6
i-lOl.O
+ 59.2
+37.4
+75.7
+61.2
+70.0

+ 33.5
(NA)
+118.0
+70.1
(NA)
+60.3
+60.7
+60.4

+17.7
f206.2
+49.0
+43.5
+27.4
+48.4
+40.7
+26.9

+ 5.1
-8.8
+3.6
+19.6
+8.5
+24.8
+22.2
+16.6

+7.8
+19.9
+30.9
+22.8
+17.0
+33.1
+21.1
+13.5

+10.3
+32.7
+29.2
+25.1
+19.3
+37.9
+22.4
+22.6

43

+4.4

-4.9

-19.2

+14.1

+9.9

+1.7

+0.1

(NA) +56.3 +35.0 +14.4
(NA) +61.8 +13.0 +17.7

+28.5
+36.3

9. Index of new private housing units author -

-27.5 +13.8

+21.1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
7.
9.
'0.
'1.

Index of industrial production.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers

'4 . Sales of retail stores
>5. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities

+21.4 +15.8

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
1. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3

7. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)

39
45

+39.8 +30.2 -38.2 f 223.1
+59.5 +43.6 -52.9 +-276.9

43
42
42

b
2. Index of labor cost per unit of output,

-6.1
-4.3
-16.0 -13.7 -15.4 +11.4 +10.9 +15.5 +13.1
(NA) +62.5 +23.4 +7.7 +13.0
(NA) +42.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) f!30.0 +64.2 +95.5 +47.8 +27.7 +34.4
(NA)
(NA)

42

-26.4

+1.0

-4.9

-29.7

(NA) +40.8 +26.1

+18.9

+0.2

NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak
ad been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for
he reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
•'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
xpenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964).




Cyclical Patterns

60

Table 9.--PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, an<
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or mor<
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as th<
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter.
See also MCD footnoti
to appendix C.

Selected series

Months
after
specific
trough1

45

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....

July
1924

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Aug.
1954

Apr.
1958

Feb.
1961

Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...

July
1921

39
4-3
43
47
45

(NA)

-97 . 8--100.0

*45.2 --'1M.6 --108 . 2
-86.3 --'106.8 ---110 . 5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
*99.2 179.6 (NSC)
-71 . 3---100.8 ---76.6

70.2

99.5

(NSC)

---99.8

100. (

-"-99.0
3

55.6 (NSC)
90.7
26.4 180.3
70.4- (NSC) ---138.1
*70.4 41.3
(NA) ---107.2 -"-90.3 -101.0
(NA)
45.2 *155.6 ---186.3 ---122 . 5
45.0
74.2 105.7 --135.1 -65.1 -"-92.9

120.;
97.:
100.:
139. '
102.;

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin46

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA) ---211.6 ---106.2

45

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

91.8
(NA)
80.8
80.2
92.1
82.5
80.8
84. £

119.1
(NA)
144.9
142.6
(NA)
143.0
178.0
125.4

111.7
(NA)
134.2
134.9
121.9
135.0
-147.3
(NSC)

-99.2 122.,

29. Index of new private housing units author(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..

43
40
43
42
42
45
45
41

45

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....

--105.4
---67.5
---109.2
---121.6
-"110.1
---122.6
-116.1
116.7

90. {

---103.0 107.(
---78.2
-109 . 0 119.(
-112.4 124.
-107.6 117.;
3
120.4 122/
-108 . 3 118.:
---109.4 118/

94.;

Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...

"-91. 3 ---96.6 ---105.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-112.3 ---108.2 ---116.2
(NSC)
(NA) (NSC)
(NA) (NSC) (NSC)
(NA) nii.i -112.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
102.9 (NSC) (NSC)

-96.5

39
43
43
47
45

*+15. 4 *+7.9

"+4.f

+ 3.8 +19.3

+6.2

---+4.1

---+5.2

+5.'
3

(NA) +78.6 (NSC) +32.7 +29.:
"+11 8. 5 ---+82.6 ---+40.1 +173. C
-+23.6 "+42.9 ---+20 . * ---+12.2 -48.2 +19.1 (NSC) -+51. 7 +14.:
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) ---+15.2 ---+6.8 -+9.4 +5.i
---+46.2 +111.0 (NSC) +195.4 -17.3 ---+87.4 ---+109.6 *+48 . 1 +55.;
---+75.0 -+36.7 -+7 . 3 +99. f +63.6 -+100.J #+24. 7 "+17. 4 +11 . .'

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin46

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA) ---+180 . 1 "+89.9 "+36.7 +32.

45

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

29. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..

43
40
43
42
42
45
45
41

*+32.6 "+12. 0 *+11.5 +34.2 +33.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) +92.:
---+66.1 "+31. 7 *+24.S +73.: +114.3
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +59. < +70.1
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +36.7
(NA)
*+32.8 ---+15.3 --+15.9 +67.^ +63. £
(NA) +127. C +H3.4
(NA)
(NA)
+20.7 (NSC) (NSC) +65. c +55.2

(NA)

+17.';
+203.8
+49. Q
+39. S
+24.5
+41. f
--+68. f
(NSC)

(NA) ---+56.3

+21.(

*+9.1 *+?.£ +10.
-+61.9 ---+54.2 +36.:
---+21.3 --+27.2 +29.;
"+24.9 --+16. 4 +25.:
-+14. 3 *+12.f +19..
"+24.2 +21. g 3+23.:
--+25.6 *+17.£ +24. (
+22.7 *+13.7 +23. '

NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the mont
indicated in the first column.
The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered i
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. 1). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
^•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough t
the latest month shown in table 2.
The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by a
asterisk ( )
* . Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the hig
preceding that low.




Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates

Trough

Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)

Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1 6
8?
December 1 7
80
March 1 7
89

June 1857
October i 6 . .
80.
April 1865
June 1 6
89
October 1 7 . .
83.
March 1882

XXX

30
22
46
IF
34
36

XXX

XXX

18
8
32
18
65

43
30

36
99

zi

40
54
50
52
101

May 1885
April 1888
May 1 9
81
June 1894June 1897
December 1 0
90

March 1887
July 1 9
80
January 1 9 . .
83.
December 1895..
June 1 9
89
September 1902.

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1 0
94
June 1908
January 1912
December 1 1
94
March 1919
July 1 2
91

May 1907
January 1 1 . .
90.
January 1 1 . .
93.
August 1 1 . .
98..
January 1 2 . .
90.
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924
November 1 2
97
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1 4
99

October 1 2 . .
96.
August 1 2 . .
99..
May 1937
February 1 4 .
95.
November 1 4 .
98.
July 1953

14
13
43
13
.
8
11

27
21
50
80
37

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
93
45
56

August 1954
April 1958
February 1 6
91

July 1957
May I 6
90

11
9
9

35
25

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1 1 - 9 1
9916
4 cycles, 1 4 - 9 1
9516

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1 5 - 9 1
8416
8 cycles, 1 1 - 9 1
9916
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

To

22

48
34

44
34

2

54
46

3

6

42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
X

25 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1 2 - 9 0
9016.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.

*21 cycles, 1 5 - 9 0
8716.
7 cycles, 1 2 - 9 0
9016.
3 cycles, 1 4 - 9 0
9516.

2

5

3

6

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.




61

Appendixes

62

Appendix C.--AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.--Average Percentage Changes

i/c
Monthly series

CI

I

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
.9
4
.2
4
Accession rate, manufacturing....
4.92 4.69
Nonagricultural placements, all industries.... 1.82
1.29
Layoff rate, manufacturing....
8.05
9.52
Temporary layoff all industries
17.76 17.12
Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemploy5.29
4.62
6. New orders , durable goods industries
3.25
3.79

!
•
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.

24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.....
7. Private nonfarm housing starts.....
29. New building permits, private housing

4.4,7

4.01

C

i/c

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

MCD

.21
1.72
1.18
4.02
3.99

2.00
2.73
1.09
2.00
4.29

2
3
2
3
5

.95
.89
.59
.0
7
.9
8

2.15
1.85
2.27
2.21
1.63

1.65
1.54
1.63
1.73
1.44

10.58
9.00
9.77
8.40
6.35

4.06
5.64
5.25
5.39
3.08

2.49
1.61

1.86
2.02

2
3

.6
8
.59

1.72
1.67

1.51
1.54

9.77
8.33

3.94
4.56

1.61

2.49

3

.4
8

1.76

1.51

12.50

3.62

1

C )
.82
C1)
.68
.77

1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.10
1.48

1.54
1.59
1.53
1.53
1.70
1.32

6.63
10.75
6.13
14.38
6.30
5.77

3.03
3.71
2.32
3.32
3.02
2.26

.4
9
.68

1.53
2.23
2.35

1.37
1.74
1.67

9.77
7.47
12.70

5.30
3.60
3.94

9.66
9.43
4.61
4.93
7.34 7.31
3.39
3.82
2.36
2.68
16.86 16.36

1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
1.10
2.52

5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
2.15
6.49

6
4
6
3
3
6

13.09 12.81
.69
.56
1.86
2.65

2.11
.33
1.67

6.07
1.70
1.11

6
2
2

6.81

5.29

3.10

1.71

3

.6
6

2.54

1.76

10.58

4.63

5.81

5.32

2.14

2.49

3

.6
7

1.87

1.63

12.70

3.91

7.68
1.32

5.54
1.04

4.73
.4
7

1.17
1.41

2
2

.9
7
.95

3.53
2.44

2.12
2.05

9.77
11.55

4.20
4.06

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employees in nonagricultural establishments...
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, married males
Average weekly insured unemployment, State....
Help-wanted advertising

.30
.36
4.19
5.98
4.82
3.11

.15
.29
3.14
5.02
2.56
1.88

.25
.19
2.41
2.86
3.56
2.35

.0
6
1.53
1.30
1.76
.72
.0
8

1
2
2
2
1
1

.0
6
.9
7
.9
6
.8
8
.2
7
.0
8

5.29
1.82
2.67
2.53
3.74
3.47

2.05
1.62
1.58
1.63
2.12
1.60

14.11
18.71
8.19
10.90
9.07
9.62

5.29
3.33
3.33
4.91
3.74
3.47

47. Industrial production
51. Bank debits outside NYC
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction....
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod, and foods.

1.09
1.48
.9
4
.81
.78
.17

.58
1.44
.27
.53
.63
.0
1

.9
7
.0
6
.41
.61
.4
4
.13

.73
2.40
.66
.87
1.43
.77

1
3
1
1
2
1

.73
.54
.66
.87
.85
.7
7

3.53
1.69
3.43
3.43
2.53
3.53

2.05
1.53
1.84
1.90
1.80
2.65

9.77
18.14
18.14
11.55
9.54
11.55

3.53
4.31
3.43
3.43
3.62
3.53

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing..
64-. Book value of manufacturers' inventories......
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of

.65
.54

.8
4
.-19

.36
.9
4

1.33
.39

2
1

.72
.39

2.27
8.33

1.55
2.02

9.07
13.89

4.34
8.33

66. Consumer ' installment debt.

.80
.83

.54
.17

.9
4
.78

1.10
.22

2
1

.53
.22

2.40
11.45

1.42
2.29

15.63 5.17
18.00 11.45

5.68
5.59
5.37
5.20
26.87 26.37
15.12 14.78
26.25 26.21

.82
.95
4.09
2.70
6.12

6.82
5.47
6.45
5.47
4.28

6
6
6
6
6

(*)
(X)
0
)
1

1.51
1.74
1.51
1.47
1.58

1.41
1.57
1.46
1.43
1.47

8.47
7.47
5.93
6.61
5.95

2.18
2.60
2.27
2.48
2.86

23.00 23.02
7.33
5.69
1.80
1.39
1.68
1.50
2.57
2.17
.58
.27

3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.12
.52

6.39
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52

6
2
2
4
3
1

1.51
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13

1.45
2.00
2.13
1.79
1.90
2.63

5.56
9.71
10.46
8.67
8.56
17.13

2.53
3.55
3.75
4.90
3.55
9.13

14. Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
37.. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
26. Production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries

41.
42.
43.
40.
45.
46.

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82 . Federal cash payments to public.
83. Federal cash receipts from public
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total.
92. Military contract awards in U.S
99.
114-.
115.
116.
117.

New orders, defense products....
Treasury bill rate.
Treasury bond yields
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields

See footnotes at end of table.




C1)
C1)

C)
C1)
C1)

.81
.95
.93
.6
8
.52

Appendixes

63

Appendix C.--AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED M E A S U R E S FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued

i/c
CI

Monthly series

I

C

i/c

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

MCD

OTHER U S SERIES WITH BUSINESS
. .
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE— Con.
4.59
3.61
.15
70
.3
1.51

4.39
3.47
.0
1
6.69
.57

1.11
.7
9
.13
1.69
1.34

3.95
3.58
.7
7
3.96
.3
4

4
4
1
5
1

.96
.85
.7
7
.4
8
.3
4

1.77
1.59
60
.0
1.52
5.95

1.66
1.51
2.25
1.45
1.87

70
.6
7.53
25.20
7.88
13.89

2.75
2.97
60
.0
3.59
5.95

.0
9
1.14
.6
8
14
.2
1.36
14
.4
1.70

.7
7
10
.9
.3
8
1.18
12
.0
1.41
1.07

.52
.7
4
.0
5
.9
6
.8
6
.4
7
1.23

14
.8
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.7
8

2
3
2
2
2
3
1

.2
7
.81
.89
.93
.89
.4
6
.87

3.47
24
.0
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91

2.12
1.87
24
.0
2.14
2.08
1.82
1.52

15.63
8.93
31.25
1.0
80
25.00
31.00
17.86

8.27
5.59
7.75
5.43
11.27
64
.2
2.91

CI

86. Exports, excluding military aid.
87. General imports
8l . Consumer prices
9 . Construction contracts, value
4
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries....

I

C

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123 . Canada.
122 . United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125. West Germany
126. France.
127. Italy
128. Japan

i/c
Quarterly series

T/c

QCD

for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

QCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.

New capital appropriations, manufacturing....
Corporate profits after t x s . . . . . . . .
ae........
Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing...
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries

11.65
6.28
67
.6

7.26
4.03
48
.0

7.39
47
.1
4.17

.8
9
.6
8
1.15

1
1
2

.8
9
.6
8
.56

2.47
2.47
2.47

1.45
1.35
14
.0

4.67
5.25
5.25

2.47
2.47
2.73

5.10

3.76

3.78

.9
9

1

.9
9

3.23

14
.0

5.25

3.23

1.29
1.54
1.30

.9
4
.0
5
.38

10
.7
1.33
1.20

.6
4
.8
3
.31

1
1
1

.6
4
.8
3
.31

3.82
46
.7
60
.0

14
.5
1.35
1.45

4.67
60
.0
84
.0

3.82
46
.7
60
.0

3.15
.0
9
2.31

1.26
.9
4
1.57

2.64
.2
7
20
.0

.8
4
.8
6
.9
7

1
1
1

.8
4
.8
6
.9
7

46
.7
3.15
2.47

1.83
14
.1
1.56

46
.7
5.86
46
.7

46
.7
3.15
24
.7

11.61
86
.0
5.89

8.33
5.67
1.56

7.58
6.55
5.54

11
.0
.7
8
.8
2

2
1
1

.3
4
.7
8
.28

2.59
2.32
30
.0

1.33
1.38
1.50

40
.0
40
.0
60
.0

43
.0
2.32
30
.0

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales

^

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip...
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
LID. Total private borrowing
111. Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, m g . . .
f....

ponent into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the
NOTE: Measures are computed for a period of at least
10 years beginning with January 1953, except for series 7, same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
36, 87, and 1 6 The period begins with May 1959 for
1 .
series 7 and with January 1 6 for series 116. For series
90
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an esti36 and 87, the period ends with June 1 6 .
92
mate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
The following are brief definitions of the measures
irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-month
shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (jan.Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans.
Averages,
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National
without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal
over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months for
3f Business, October 1957).
which the average percentage change (without regard to
sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-topercentage change ('without regard to sign) in the irreguluarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
lar component, and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the
seasonally adjusted series. "P is the same for the irpoint at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted
"egular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical comseries become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular




Appendixes

64

A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5.
The actual value of ADR falls between
1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month
intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series,
the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.67 for series 6, Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries. This indicates that 1month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.54- for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into
an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 4-. 56 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 to 5 months.
The increase in the ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the
MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, monthto-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect
the underlying cyclical-trend movements of the series,
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

movements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater
than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are
shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of
the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in
quarters) for which the average percentage change (without
regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in
the irregular component, and remains so.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1month spansjand for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD
is "6", no I/C_ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, T/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD
spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series
of observations. When there is no change between 2 months,
a change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed.
The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve.
The MCD curve is a moving average
fwith the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
adjusted series.

Appendix C.--AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes

T/c
Monthly series

Unit of
measure

CI

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31. Change in book value, manufac- Ann. rate,
turing and trade inventories... bil. dol... 3.50
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1
inventories of matls., supplies. ..do
1.52
25. Change in unfilled orders, durBil. dol.... .-49
able goods

I

C

•'•Where MCD is larger than "6",
is used as the MCD curve.

a 6-term moving average

The measures in the above table are computed by an additive method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and




MCD1

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

MCD

3.37

.85

3.96

4

.4
9

1.47

14
.4

7.94

3.22

1.45

.37

3.93

5

.92

1.64

1.46

6.05

3.15

.6
4

.16

2.93

4

.9
7

1.79

1.58

74
.4

3.45

5.64
1.56
6.75

9
2
11

.9
7
.95
.82

1.54
2.03
1.45

1.47
1.52
1.48

60
.9
10.31
6.18

3.07
3.17
3.32

5.29

7

.97

1.51

1.45

6.80

2.60

4.51

5-

.93

14
.7

1.47

6.22

2.48

2.19
3.23

3
3

.78
.93

1.71
1.82

1.55
1.61

90
.0
11.30

3.24
2.64

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit....
Ann. rate,
5.46
.97
bil. dol... 5.60
Mil. dol....104.23 82.19 52.77
93. Free reserves
Percent
.03
.23
.23
98. Change in money supply and time
. . do
.4
0
.21
.21
Ann. rate,
112. Change, business loans....
.26
1.19
bil. dol... 1.22
113. Change, consumer installment
.85
debt
.75
.34
..do
Mil. dol.... 58.96 56.60 17.50
88. Merchandise trade balance.
NOTE: Measures are computed for the period, January
1953 to mid-1964, except for series 88 and 112. For series
88, the period ends with June 1962 and for series 112, the
period begins with August 1959.

T/c

negative data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-mont\
change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the
same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of
the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the
irregular component, which is determined by subtracting
the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as ir
part 1.

Appendixes

65

Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(NOVEMBER 1963 TO DECEMBER 1964)
4
19<)

1S}63
Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July Aug. Sept. Oct.

4. Temporary layoff, all industries. 86.7 95.9 144.5 107.7
98.9
5. Avg. weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance.... 103.1 133.7 142.1 109.5 94-4
13. New business incorporations1
96.3 110.0
82.3 97.5 116.3
14-. Liabilities of business failures. 102.5 78.5 110.3 101.7 103.5
15. Large business failures
94.3 85.7 111.7 112.8 115.0

86.6

84.0

76.7

98.3 146.0

Nov.

Dec.

17. Ratio, price to unit labor
cost, manufacturing
101.1 97.7
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2. 100.8
1
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. . 93.1 81.1
37. Purchased materials, percent re95.1 96.7
55. Wholesale prices, except farm
100.0 100.2

Jan.

Feb.

93.8
106.9
114.6
109.1

83.0 82.9
102.9 106.7
103.3 94.4
99.7 104.7

98.0 99.4 100.0 100.3 100.8 102.3
82!<6

94.7
77.4

92.0

103.6

106.2
107.4 110.8

109.6 107.4 109.3 109.1 106.3

96.7

104.7
108.2
82.7
87.6

85.5
90.5
124.9
95.9

Nov.

Dec.

86.6

95.2

82.4

90.7

78.7
92.5
91.0
90.3

89.0 103.0 134.2
99.0 82.3 102.2
92.0 102.6 77.0
93.5 94.3 85.3

99.1 101.7 103.3 101.1 97.7
100.8
97.6
105.0 111.0 124.4 112, 6 93.3 82.2
96.2

92.8

91.6 93.7 92.1

100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9

95.1

96.6

99.9 100.1 100.0 100.2

62. Labor cost per unit of output,
98.9 102.3
100.2 99.9
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1 98.5
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 101.9 106.4
90. Defense Department obligations —
92.8 102.7
91.
92.
112
128.

90.3 99.6
Defense Dept. oblig., total
Military contract awards in U.S.. 84.8 94.5
Change, business loans • . . . . . 100.8 101.7
....
Japan, index of industrial pro99.0 102.0

102.3
99.9
91.9
69.3

100.6 99.9
100.0 100.0
96.2 93.7
112.1 126.6

85.8

85.7 102.5

99.4
99.9
99.0
79.0

99.0
99.8
103.7
121.6

103.9 100.8 97.9
99.9 100.2 100.0 100.2
102.9 96.6 115.0 93.8
149.8 48.9 115.1 123.5
97.6

79.7 72.3 207.0 89.6

96.9
100.2
105.7
46.1

89.2- 97.1 95.8

98.9
100.2
102.9
102.0

102.4

99.9
98.5
106.5

92.9 102.7

92.2 85.7 108.0 94.6 86.2 147.1 101.1 94.3 98.1 103.6 90.3 99.6
91.5 83.3 124.8 84.0 89.6 197.9 69.9 88.0 99.0 93.9 84.8 94.5
100.2 99.4 100.4 100.7 100.1 99.7 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.9 101.8
94.7 100.9 108.4 100.3 100.5 99.4

99.1

96.8

99.1 100.3 99.0 102.0

These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.




Appendixes

66

Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4> and $. Data are seasonally adjusted except series 93.
Year

Jan.

Mar.

Feb.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

93. Free reserves (Mil. dol.)
19^8
149
9.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954.

+938
+669
+900
+613
+723
-640
+836

+ 560
+600
+614
+298
+330
-672
+339

+ 552
+ 546
+655
+471
+578
-614
+503

+700
+608
+ 593
+672
+283
-631
+626

+ 599
+601
+624
+152
+65
-353
+ 561

+752
+658
+700
+664
+130
+365
+711

+722
+910
+623
+ 562
-468
+366
+770

+750
+861
+483
+412
-383
-7
+725

+756
+847
+669
+383
+95
+250
+708

+706
+816
+775
+821
-400
+390
+638

+655
+677
+586
+389
-875
+198
+650

+663
+685
+885
+169
-870
+252
+457

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

+369
-255
+116
+122
-59
-375

+270
-267
-126
+324
-48
-365

+122
-409
-316
+495
-140
-219

+95
-533
-504
+492
-259
-194

+212
-504
-444
+ 547
-319
-33

+168
-195
-508
+484
-513
+37

+92
-139
-383
+547
-556
+120

-189
-339
-471
+382
-536
+247

-286
-214
-466
+95
-493
+414

-359
-195
-344
+96
-459
+480

-492
-154
-293
+20
-433
+614

-245
-36
-133
-41
-424
+669

95. Surplus (+) , or deficit (-) , Federal income and product account (Annual rate, billion dollars)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

...

+13.9
-1.4
-3.8
+20.2
+1.0
-5.1
-10.6

...
...

+0.8
+6.7
+4.3
-8.1
26
+8.2

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

+8.5
-3.9
+8.3
+8.1
-4.2
-7.0
-5.4

+ 5.8
-2.8
+17.0
-0.3
-7.2
-5.6
-5.1

...

...

+3.5
+6.7
+1.8
-11.1
+1.6
+ 5.2

...
...

+3.8
-2.1
+15.3
-2.4
-5.1
-11.8
-2.3

+ 5.6
+ 5.1
-0.9
-8.1
-1.0
-1.2

+5.5
+4.3
+2.6
-10.7
-2.4
+1.4

...

99. New orders, defense products (Bil. dol.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
195.3
1954

2.17
1.51

2.51
1.31

1.59
1.06

1.56
1.39

2.06
1.10

2.04
1.08

1.04
1.48

1.01
1.25

0.83
1.85

1.54
2.52

1.09
0.58

1.43
1.21

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

1.13
2.06
1.54
1.06
1.51
1.50

1.42
1.38
1.59
1.39
1.35
1.49

1.20
1.62
1.52
2.59
1.74
2.19

0.88
1.94
1.33
1.35
2.07
1.55

1.42
1.67
1.78
1.56
1.77
1.94

1.46
1.94
1.34
1.82
1.97
2.08

1.32
1.85
0.97
1.98
1.66
1.95

1.32
4.45
1.43
1.55
1.54
2.11

2.08
1.78
1.06
1.10
1.72
2.27

2.18
1.46
0.98
1.79
1.98
1.36

1.52
1.78
2.15
2.17
1.74
1.98

2.22
1.86
1.90
1.33
1.57
1.66

121. OECD European countries — index of industrial production (1957-59=100)

1948
149
9.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

49
55
60
68
74
71
77

50
57
61
71
72
71
78

49
56
60
68
70
71
77

50
54
60
70
68
72
79

49
57
62
69
67
72
79

50
57
63
71
65
72
80

51
56
63
70
67
74
81

52
57
63
68
68
74
82

53
58
65
70
69
75
82

52
57
66
69
72
76
82

52
58
66
69
73
77
83

55
60
68
70
74
77
84

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

85
91
95
99
99
111

86
89
96
99
100
112

86
91
96
99
102
114

86
91
96
99
102
113

87
92
97
97
102
114

88
93
96
98
104
116

88
93
96
99
104
118

88
93
98
97
105
116

89
93
99
98
107
116

90
93
97
99
108
117

91
94
97
99
110
118

91
93
99
99
113
118




Appendixes

67

Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
a.ch month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

122. United Kingdom—index of industrial production (1957-59=100)

248
249
250
251
252
253
254

68
72
79
83
84
83
92

68
73
79
85
83
83
90

72
74
80
86
84
85
91

69
74
80
85
80
85
91

68
75
80
84
80
86
92

69
76
80
86
80
82
92

69
81
80
84
78
85
92

69
76
80
85
79
85
92

71
74
81
85
80
86
93

70
75
83
84
81
90
96

72
78
83
84
83
89
95

74
80
80
83
82
88
96

255
256
)57
258
)59
260

96
98
98
97
98
109

97
98
99
100
98
109

98
97
98
100
100
110

98
98
98
99
101
112

99
96
99
97
101
112

96
98
99
97
,103
111

96
97
100
98
104
111

95
96
100
97
104
112

98
98
100
97
106
112

100
97
98
97
108
112

99
98
99
98
108
110

101
97
98
98
109
112

123. Canada— index of industrial production (1957-59=100)

^,8
?49
)50
?51
)$2
>53..
>54
>55
)56
>57
>58
159
>60

59
62
63
73
73
81
80

60
62
65
73
73
81
82

60
62
64
74
74
82
80

61
62
65
74
74
82
80

61
63
65
75
75
82
80

60
63
67
75
75
81
80

60
63
69
74
76
83
80

61
64
67
75
78
81
82

62
64
70
73
78
81
81

62
64
70
73
79
80
81

62
63
71
73
80
80
81

62
65
72
72
81
81
82

85
94
99
95
101
109

85
94
100
96
103
107

86
96
101
96
103
108

87
98
99
96
105
105

89
96
100
98
105
105

89
98
99
98
105
105

90
99
98
97
105
104

92
98
98
96
104
104

93
99
96
97
106
105

93
100
96
97
108
105

93
100
95
100
106
105

93
101
94
100
107
105

125. West Germany— index of industrial production (1957-59=100)

148
149
150
151
152
153
154

20
35
40
53
58
61
67

21
35
41
55
57
62
68

22
35
42
55
57
64
69

22
36
44
56
57
54
70

23
36
45
56
57
63
72

22
37
46
56
59
65
72

25
38
48
56
59
66
73

27
38
49
55
59
66
74

28
39
50
55
60
67
75

29
39
51
56
62
68
76

30
40
51
57
63
68
76

32
40
53
57
61
70
79

155
156
157
158
159
160

79
89
94
99
98
113

79
87
96
98
100
113

81
89
94
97
103
115

80
90
96
98
103
115

83
91
96
95
103
116

84
89
96
98
104
118

84
92
95
100
105
118

85
92
96
98
107
115

86
92
96
99
109
118

86
90
96
102
110
120

87
92
96
100
111
120

88
91
97
100
114
122

126. France— index of industrial production (1957-59=100)

•48
'9
4
'50
151
152
153
>54

*62
68
62
70

64
67
63
69

63
67
65
70

64
66
65
72

65
63
67
74

65
65
67
74

67
65
66
73

66
66
62
72

67
65
68
75

67
65
68
74

65
66
69
75

65
63
72
76

>55
156
157
'8...
5....
59
60

76
84
94
102
98
107

76
83
94
103
98
108

78
86
96
103
98
108

77
88
94
102
102
110

78
89
96
102
102
110

79
89
96
102
102
111

78
90
98
100
102
112

80
90
98
100
102
112

79
91
99
100
104
115

81
91
98
100
105
114

84
92
100
99
106
115

82
92
102
98
108
114




Appendixes

68

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued

Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have be€
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the inde>
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Jan.

Year

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

127. Italy— index of industrial production (1957-59-100)
1948

41
49
51
60
62
66
73

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960

43
49
52
62
62
66
73

44
47
53
63
62
67
73

44
47
54
63
62
67
74

47
51
54
63
64
65
73

45
53
55
62
63
67
72

45
51
54
63
63
68
75

51
52
57
62
64
69
75

49
51
57
62
65
68
77

49
51
58
60
65
71
77

50
51
59
60
66
73
77

49
50
61
61
65
73
77

78
84
91
97
101
118

1949
1950
1951
1952.. *. . .
.
1953
1954

79
81
95
97
105
122

81
86
95
97
105
123

79
88
95
95
105
123

80
88
94
95
105
124

82
88
94
97
104
126

82
89
95
97
103
125

82
88
94
95
108
127

82
90
97
99
110
127

82
90
92
99
113
126

84
90
95
102
117
129

84
92
96
102
118
129

128. Japan—index of industrial production (1957-59-100)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

17
24
28
41
48
49
62

18
25
29
39
47
51
61

18
26
28
42
45
54
64

19
26
30
44
46
55
63

20
25
31
45
47
56
61

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

62
73
89
93
99
127

62
75
92
94
102
131

65
73
91
93
103
133

64
76
94
93
105
136

64
78
99
90
109
136

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

76.2
4.8
90.5
45.2
40.5
69.0
2.4

61.9
14.3
95.2
42.9
47.6
7.1
47.6

42.9
14.3
97.6
31.0
42.9
11.9
31.0

45.2
19.0
100.0
21.4
52.4
14.3
45.2

4.8
50.0
95.2
23.8
71.4
7.1
47.6

21.4
47.6
90.5
19.0
71.4
7.1
59.5

16.7
42.9
95.2
35.7
66.7
9.5
76.2

0.0
50.0
95.2
26.2
73.8
0.0
83.3

14.3
90.5
78.6
26.2
90.5
0.0
92.9

4.8
78.6
81.0
42.9
64.3
0.0
95.2

2.4
85.7
73.8
38.1
85.7
4.8
95.2

100.0
25.7
23.8
14.3
90.5
28.6

100.0
11.9
14.3
19.0
92.9
16.7

90.5
4.8
19.0
45.2
81.0
23.8

83.3
11.9
23.8
61.9
83.3
19.0

92.9
19.0
9.5
88.1
61.9
7.1

90.5
16.7
4.8
90.5
47.6
14.3

90.5
14.3
0.0
100.0
42.9
7.1

76.2
40.5
4.8
100,0
57.1
14.3

83.3
16.7
4.8
95.2
26.2
28.6

38.1
50.0
7.1
97.6
14.3
7.1

26.2
59.5
11.9
100.0
23.8
16.7

20
26
32
46
47
57 '
61
64
80
98
89
111
137

21
27
33
46
49
57
61

22
27
35
45
49
59
59

23
27
36
46
52
59
61

23
27
38
44
50
61
61

23
28
40
46
48
61
62

24
29
40
47
48
62
63

65
81
99
92
113
140

67
83
97
94
115
142

69
84
96
94
118
145

68
86
94
96
120
146

71
87
94
95
122
150

71
87
92
98
126
150

Dl. Diffusion index for Average workweek, manufacturing— 21 industries (9-month interval)

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959...... .
I960

0.0
92.9
73.8
23.8
83.3
4.8
90.5

64.3
28.6
14.3
95.2
21.4
31.0

D5. Diffusion index for Initial claims, State unemploy. insur., week ended nearest 22d — 47 areas (9-mo. int

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

53^2
4.3

38^3
10.6

36.2
21.3

42.*6
8.5
27.7

76.6
10.6
14.9

72.3
4.3
23.4

66.0
2.1
69.1

74.5
2.1
95.7

80.9
0.0
93.6

72.3
10.6
91.5

80.9
6.4
91.5

85.1
2.1
89.4

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

93.6
46.8
34.0
4.3
97.9
12.8

85.1
47.9
31.9
19.1
93.6
23.4

93.6
29.8
23.4
12.8
76.6
50.0

85.1
33.0
21.3
29.8
74.5
25.5

83.0
45.7
12.8
27.7
83.0
14.9

85.1
61.7
21.3
59.6
23.4
10.6

78.7
57.4
0.0
95.7
34.0
6.4

53.2
41.5
4.3
89.4
48.9
21.3

59.6
23.4
8.5
97.9
25.5
21.3

70.2
61.7
0.0
91.5
27.7
14.9

66.0
4.
47
0.0
95.7
17.0
27.7

68.1
40.4
6.4
91.5
29.8
20.2




Appendixes

69

Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
ich month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted except series D19.

Year

Feb.

Jan.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

D6. Diffusion index for Value of mfrs. 1 new orders, durable goods indus. —36 industries (9-month interval)
M-8
M-9
?50
)51
?52
^53
?54

90.5
57.1
33.3
66.7
36.1

95.2
57.1
66.7
47.6
43.1

100.0
47.6
42.9
52.4
56.9

100.0
50.0
26.2
28.6
66.7

100.0
9.5
50.0
42.9
63.9

52.4
100.0
9.5
57.1
8.3
88.9

66.7
95.2
23.8
38.1
6.9
66.7

57.1
95.2
9.5
52.4
8.3
94.4

95.2
100.0
4.8
52.4
6.9
88.9

85.7
90.5
9.5
85.7
11.1
94.4

95.2
95.2
28.6
47.6
26.4
91.7

90.5
85.7
38.1
66.7
25.0
88.9

)55
>56
>57
>58
>59
)60

94.4
62.5
36.1
30.6
94.4
47.2

86.1
66.7
47.2
50.0
94.4
40.3

88.9
33.3
25.0
58.3
86.1
38.9

94.4
38.9
19.4
72.2
72.2
52.8

86.1
20.8
18.1
80.6
83.3
44.4

77.8
52.8
16.7
88.9
69.4
33.3

75.0
66.7
19.4
91.7
41.7
44.4

69.4
65.3
16.7
83.3
36.1
48.6

84.7
40.3
25.0
91.7
36.1
34.7

66.7
55.6
27.8
86.1
36.1
25.0

66.7
43.1
27.8
90.3
22.2
37.5

69.4
50.0
25.0
91.7
36.1
58.3

D19. Diffusion index for Stock prices, 500 common stocks — 80 industries (9-month interval)
)48
>49
>50
>51
>52
153
154

27.' 5
90.0
96.2
42.5
59.4
83.7

18.7
87.5
83.7
35.0
38.1
91.2

27.5
62.5
68.7
52.5
55.0
92.5

53.7
68.7
80.0
67.5
48.7
97.5

63.7
71.2
86.2
58.7
16.2
97.5

61.2
70.6
71.9
70.0
42.5
17.5
96.2

61.2
83.7
67.5
45.6
64.4
30.0
96.2

55.0
85.0
65.0
62.5
74.4
31.2
97.5

32.5
96.2
78.7
61.2
80.0
53.7
100.0

11.2
97.5
80.0
52.5
81/2
65.6
98.7

10.0
96.2
84.4
66.2
79.4
83.7
98.7

20.0
92.5
96.9
62.5
65.0
83.7
98.7

155
156
157
158
159
160

91.2
56.2
51.2
47.5
95.0
30.0

97.5
51.2
59.4
60.0
85.0
41.2

96.2
72.5
65.0
95.0
85.0
42.5

95.0
67.5
50.0
100.0
84.4
42.5

88.7
55.6
36.9
100.0
67.5
36.9

70.0
48.7
20.0
98.7
61.9
38.7

68.7
43.7
25.0
100.0
55.6
46.2

81.2
31.9
23.7
100.0
56.9
57.5

63.7
33.7
31.2
100.0
50.6
68.7

72.5
27.5
26.2
100.0
33.7
83.7

73.7
41.2
30.0
98.7
32.5
90.0

60.6
33.1
30.0
96.2
26.2
97.5

D23. Diffusion index for Index of industrial materials prices — 13 industrial materials (9-month interval)
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58. ......
59
60

7.7
69.2
100.0
30.8
38.5
53.8

0.0
69.2
76.9
30.8
15.4
76.9

7.7
84.6
46.2
23.1
15.4
84.6

7.7
92.3
30.8
30.8
30.8
69.2

7.7
100.0
23.1
30.8
15.4
61.5

46.2
7.7
100.0
23.1
23.1
30.8
69.2

46.2
23.1
100.0
23.1
38.5
38.5
61.5

38.5
23.1
100.0
15.4
38.5
30.8
53.8

30.8
53.8
100.0
15.4
38.5
30.8
61.5

23.1
53.8
100.0
15.4
30.8
23.1
53.8

7.7
76.9
100.0
15.4
46.2
38.5
61.5

7.7
76.9
100.0
30.8
30.8
46.2
61.5

61.5
46.2
30.8
19.2
69.2
46.2

61.5
42.3
38.5
38.5
69.2
38.5

69.2
46.2
34.6
53.8
61.5
38.5

69.2
46.2
30.8
76.9
69.2
30.8

76.9
53.8
23.1
76.9
61.5
38.5

76.9
53.8
23.1
76.9
69.2
38.5

76.9
53.8
23.1
76.9
61.5
30.8

84.6
46.2
15.4
84.6
46.2
30.8

84.6
30.8
23.1
69.2
61.5
38.5

76.9
38.5
23.1
76.9
53.8
38.5

69.2
53.8
23.1
73.1
46.2
46.2

53.8
46.2
15.4
61.5
46.2
38.5

D34. Diffusion index for Profits, manufacturing, FNCB—around 700 corporations (l-quarter interval)
48
49
50
51
52
53
54

52
27
60
46
46
46
57

55
56. ......
57
58
59
60

59
52
52
40
58
52

1

...

FRB sample of 200 companies.




56
32
70
42
39
53
53
...

65
48
46
42
63
40

X

...

...

59
53
75
34
58
47
50
53
43
42
71
48
45

...
...

54
U8
47
55
65
41
52
55
52
37
58
48
47

...
...

Appendixes

70

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued

Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have bee
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4j and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

D41. Diffusion index for No. of employees in nonagr i cult urales tab. —30 industries (6-month interval)

1953
1954

20.0
73.3
76.7
66.7
86.7
16.7

10.0
93.3
76.7
63.3
73.3
16.7

11.7
83.3
73.3
58.3
6' 3
8.
11.7

53.3
15.0
93.3
63.3
55.0
68.3
23.3

55.0
20.0
98.3
46.7
63.3
51.7
16.7

53.3
20.0
100.0
40.0
83.3
38.3
18.3

70.0
33.3
100.0
38.3
85.0
28.3
33.3

68.3
33.3
93.3
48.3
96.7
26.7
53.3

43.3
48.3
96.7
48.3
93.3
20.0
63.3

25.0
55.0
96.7
50.0
90.0
20.0
70.0

18.3
60.0
90.0
50.0
86.7
21.7
83.3

18.3
60.0
80.0
73.3
85.0
20.0
90.0

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960

88.3
71.7
45.0
10.0
93.3
80.0

83.3
70.0
41.7
13.3
93.3
85.0

91.7
56.7
33.3
15.0
96.7
43.3

96.7
38.3
28.3
13.3
88.3
40.0

95.0
46.7
26.7
21.7
90.0
26.7

85.0
43.3
18.3
63.3
80.0
26.7

80.0
43.3
16.7
70.0
60.0
16.7

85.0
48.3
16.7
93.3
53.3
16.7

78.3
46.7
11.7
91.7
58.3
18.3

81.7
58.3
13.3
93.3
61.7
18.3

83.3
58.3
13.3
96.7
73.3
18.3

76.7
61.7
13.3
96.7
75.0
18.3

1948
149
9.
1950
1951
1952

.

D47. Diffusion index for Index of industrial production —24 industries (6-month interval)

1948
1949.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

75.0
12.5
100.0
62.5
66.7
79.2
25.0

79.2
12.5
100.0
45.8
62.5
68.7
45.8

66.7
22.9
95.8
37.5
68.7
60.4
50.0

75.0
25.0
100.0
31.2
50.0
75.0
70.8

81.2
41.7
100.0
25.4
75.0
66.7
70.8

66.7
52.1
95.8
41.7
95.8
41.7
83.3

56.2
54.2
93.7
37.5
91.7
20.8
79.2

41.7
52.1
95.8
37.5
100.0
16.7
79.2

22.9
64.6
95.8
37.5
100.0
16.7
87.5

16.7
83.3
87.5
58.3
95.8
4.2
91.7

8.3
83.3
62.5
77.1
91.7
8.3
95.8

29.2
91.7
64.6
64.6
87.5
14.6
100.0

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.......
I960

95.8
70.8
39.6
8.3
100.0
70.8

100.0
66.7
50.0
10.4
87.5
83.3

95.8
45.8
52.1
45.8
91.7
66.7

87.5
54.2
62.5
70.8
83.3
58.3

95.8
58.3
66.7
91.7
79.2
50.0

95.8
79.2
35.4
95.8
77.1
37.5

100.0
66.7
22.9
100.0
45.8
37.5

89.6
72.9
8.3
100.0
50.0
20.8

91.7
70.8
4.2
95.8
66.7
20.8

87.5
54.2
4.2
100.0
60.4
16.7

83.3
50.0
2.1
95.8
60.4
12.5

70.8
52.1
0.0
91.7
62.5
20.8

D54. Diffusion index for Sales of retail stores — 24 types of stores (9-month interval)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

20.8
95.8
45.8
87.5
70.8
37.5

14.6
85.4
58.3
95.8
70.8
52.1

12.5
97.9
66.7
75.0
58.3
64.6

12! 5
100.0
83.3
70.8
54.2
58.3

12.5
100.0
54.2
66.7
31.3
62.5

66.7
25.0
97.9
37.5
79.2
37.5
75.0

64.6
27.1
68.8
56.3
72.9
29.2
52.1

62.5
47.9
91.7
62.5
87.5
29.2
77.1

33.3
43.8
100.0
85.4
70.8
33.3
79.2

39.6
54.2
100.0
79.2
83.3
45.8
91.7

29.2
52.1
91.7
77.1
72.9
43.8
83.3

33.3
87.5
47.9
83.3
56.3
50.0
93.8

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960

95.8
79.2
62.5
41.7
91.7
52.1

97.9
87.5
75.0
47.9
95.8
52.1

95.8
62.5
75.0
66.7
97.9
52.1

85.4
79.2
75.0
79.2
89.6
41.7

91.7
83.3
62.5
70.8
87.5
43.8

87.5
87.5
62.5
64.6
83.3
52.1

89.6
91.7
47.9
87.5
70.8
43.8

83.3
87.5
66.7
93.8
75.0
43.8

72.9
83.3
70.8
79.2
79.2
22.9

77.1
91.7
43.8
91.7
62.5
54.2

87.5
66.7
33.3
91.7
58.3
45.8

66.7
79.2
37.5
89.6
75.0
43.8

D58. Diffusion index for Index of wholesale prices — 23 manufacturing industries (6-month interval)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
15....
99...
I960




30.*4
67.4
100.0
23.9
63.0
45.7

26.1
78.3
95.7
23.9
65.2
56.5

26.1
91.3
91.3
30.4
65.2
50.0

78.3
23.9
95.7
50.0
26.1
63.0
47.8

73.9
15.2
100.0
41.3
34.8
60.9
54.3

73.9
8.7
100.0
19.6
43.5
58.7
43.5

65.2
6.5
100.0
19.6
43.5
65.2
47.8

60.9
8.7
95.7
19.6
41.3
52.2
45.7

56.5
19.6
100.0
13.0
39.1
65.2
52.2

52.2
34.8
95.7
26.1
34.8
50.0
63.0

39.1
52.2
100.0
30.4
39.1
45.7
67.4

34.8
54.3
100.0
41.3
56.5
47.8
71.7

71.7
78.3
67.4
54.3
87.0
52.2

71.7
84.8
63.0
54.3
82.6
50.0

71.7
78.3
65.2
39.1
80.4
50.0

78.3
73.9
76.1
28.3
69.6
39.1

78.3
76.1
76.1
37.0
65.2
39.1

78.3
78.3
76.1
45.7
76.1
34.8

82.6
73.9
73.9
50.0
60.9
41.3

78.3
73.9
69.6
50.0
58.7
37.0

78.3
80.4
56.5
56.5
45.7
26.1

78.3
80.4
52.2
63.0
54.3
32.6

76.1
73.9
47.8
80.4
63.0
37.0

73.9
65.2
56.5
80.4
47.8
47.8

Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES

series |
number1

(Page numbers)

1

L...
I...
*...
t. • •
>...
)...
'...
>...

8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9

I...

9
9
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11

Charts
2

3

Tables
4

5

1

2

3

4

5

Appendixes
6

7

8

9

A

B2

C

F3

E2

D

G

Page Issue Page Issue

l...
>» • •

»...

• ••

'• • •
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••

• ••
• ••

12
12
11
12
9
12
12
9
8
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
14
16
16
16
16
16
16
16

••
••
••

55

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23

••
••

••
55

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24

50

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

25
24
24
25
22
25
25
23

••

6
6
6
6

26
26
26
26
26
26
26
27

••
51
••
••

••

51

55

51

••
••

56

••
••

••
••
••
••
••

51
50

56
55
••

••
••

••
••

••
••

••
••

52

••

52

57
••
57

••

••
53
53

••
57
••

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

52
52
••

56
••
56
••
57
••
••

6
6
6
6
6
6
6

26
27
27
27
27
27
27

54
54
54

••
••

••
54

••
••

7
7
7
7
7
7
7

28
28
28
28
28
28
28

53
53

••

••
••
••
••
••
••

••

••

58
58
58

59
59
59

60

62
••
••

••

••

••

••
••

••

••

••

••

••

..

••
••

••

••

••

••

••

••

••

58
58
58

59
59
59

••
••
60

••

••
62

58
58

59
59

60

••

62

58
58

59
59

••
60

••
••

62

58

59

60

••

62

62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62

65
65

62
63

••

••

••

65
65
65

••

62
62
62
63
62
63
62

••
••

••
••
••

••

••

••

58
58

59
59

60
60

••
••

62
62

••

58

59

#)

••

62

••
••

63
62
62
64
62
62
62
64
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
63

••

••

••

••

5$

59

60

••

62

••

••

••

••

58

59

60

••

62

••

••

••
••

58
58

59
59

60
60

••
••

62
62

••

••

••

••

••

••

••

59
59
59

60

••

58
58
58

••

••
••

••

••

58
58

59
59

60
60
60
••

••
••
••

62
••
62
62
62

63
62
62
62
62!
62
63

••
••
••

••

59
59
59

••
••
••

••

••

58
58
58

••

••

••

••

58
58

59
59

••
••

63,
62
62
62
62
63
63

••
••

••
••

2

••
••

1-64
2-64
5-64 • •
11-63
7-63 • •
5-64 • •
6-64

65
63
66
66
66
64
68
64
66

5-64
6-64
8-63
11-63
3-64
6-64
6-63
6-64
4-64

••

••
••

••

64
64
65
66
66
66
65
63

6-64
6-64
6-64
1-64 • •
12-63 • •
12-63
6-64
6-64 • •

••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••

66
65
66
68

10-63
6-64
3-64
6-63

••
••
••

••

68
68
68
66
66
66
TO
68

8-64
8-64
8-64
2-64
3-64
2-64
9-64
8-64

••

••

••

••
••

67
67
67
••
67
. ••
••

69
69
69
66
66
69
70
66

8-64
8-64
8-64
10-63
10-63
8-64
8-64
4-64

••

••
••

••
••
••
»•
••
••
••

65
68
66
66
70
70
66

••
••
••
••
••

••

••
••

65
••
65

••
••

••

67

••

67

••

••
67
67

••
••
••
••
••
65
••

: ••

66
66
65
66
66
65
63

••
••
••
••
••

••
••

65
65
••

64

See back cover for series titles and sources.
Before May 1964, this appendix was "G".




;

22
25
25
25

••

••

1
3

••

50
••
••

50

••
••

j

65 !
••
••
••
••
••

••
••
••

••
••
••
••
••
••

••
••
••
••

6-64 • •
6-63 • •
6-64
6-64 • •
8-64 • •
8-64 • •
4-64 • •

••
••
••
••
••
••
••

Page number shown is for August 1964 issue.

71

72

Index

Series
number1

SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)

Tables

Charts
1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

Appendixes
6

7

8

9

A

B

C

D

F2

E

G

Page Issue Page Issi

81...
82...
83...
84...
85...
86...
87...
88...
89...

20
17
17
17
18
20
20
20
20

90...
91...
92...
93...
94...
95...
96...
97...
98...
99...

17
17
17
18
20
17
20
20
18
17

110...
111..
112..
113..
114..
115..
116..
117..
118..

18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19

121..
122..
123..
125..
126..
127..
128..

21
21
21
21
21
21
21

Dl...
D5...
D6...
Dll..
D19..
D23..
D34..

35
35
. . 35
35
• • 35
35
. . 35

D35..
D36..
D41..
D47..
D48..
D54..
D58..
D61..

••
••

7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7

32
29
29
29
30
32
32
32
32

63
62
62
64
64
63
63
64

29
29
29
30
32
29
32
32
30
29

62
62
62
64
63

65
65
65
•.

••
••
•.

63
63
64
62

••

••

»•

7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7

..
•.
•.
•.
••
.•
••
•.

7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7

30
30
30
31
31
31
31
31
31

63
63
64
64
62
62
62
62
62

33
33
33
33
33
33
33

63
63
63
63
63
63
63

. . ••
•.
•.

•.
••
.•

••
•.
••
••

••
..

••
.•

..

••

..
•.
•.
•.

••

•.

•.
..
••

.•
••

•.
•.

•.
••

.*
••

••

••

••

•.
••
••
••
•.

.•
•.
..
••

..
••
.•
••
••

••
••

•.
•.

•.
••
••
•.

.•

.•

••

38
39
38
38
39
39
39
37
37

36
36
..
• • 36
. . 36
. . ••

40
40




.•

»

70 8-64
•. •.
••

..
•.

•.
.•
••

••
••
••
•.

73
69
69
69
69

7-64
9-64
9-64
9-64
9-64

..
••

••
••
..

••

•.

70
70
7Q
166

9-64
9-64
9-64
10-64

••

..
••

66 10-64
66 6-64

..

••

•.
••

73 7-64
66 10-64

•.

.•
..

•.
.•
65
••

••

71
71
71
71
71
72
72
72
72

7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64

..

..

66
67
67
67
67
68
68

10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64

68
68
69

10-64
10-64 • •
10-64

69
69
69

10-64
10-64
10-64

46
47

70
70

10-64
10-64

48
49

70
70

10-64 • •
10-64 . •

. . 45
• • 42
..

41
41
••

43
44

•.

..
65

•«

73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74
••
..
•.
•.
••

40
40
37

41

7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
•.

••

••

..

.•

••

••

41

37

•'•See back cover for series titles and sources.
Before May 1964, this appendix was "G".

2

65
65
65

..
•.
..

TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included
in the I960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bu-•
reau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, m a n u f a c t u r i n g (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all

industries (M).--

Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5.

Average weekly

initial claims

for unemployment

insurance,

State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm d w e l l i n g units started (M).--Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
b u i l d i n g s , floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
TO. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1000 manufacturing corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business f a i l u r e s with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
* 16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per u n i t of labor cost i n d e x — r a t i o , wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q). —Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25* Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local b u i l d i n g
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census




30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M). ~
National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Ml. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*5Z Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per u n i t of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers', inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national
product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National
Income Division
Continued on reverse

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING

OFFICE

JALTY FOR PRIVATE USE TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE. S3OO

(GPO)

DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS

WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS

FIRST CLASS MAIL

TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
28 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).- -Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).— Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by
the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the
official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
84* Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).— Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M). --Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).— Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M). --Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M). --Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).~

sonally adjusted by iNationai ourcau 01 economic
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors*of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products (M).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Q).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System




112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
113. Net change in consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).« Treasury Department^
no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department;
no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).--The Bond
Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).--Federal Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Central
Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Deutsche
Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
126. France, index of industrial production (M).—Statistical Office
(Paris)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by
compiler and Bureau of the Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).—See series
47.

DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for Dl, D5, D6, D l l , D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight car-loadings (Q).—Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census