Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1963
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OCTOBER 1963
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
OCTOBER 1963
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
JOSEPH F. DALY, Chief Mathematical Statistician
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
JOHN BAKER, Public Information Officer
Office of the Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
SAMUEL L. BROWN, Assistant Chief
Series ESI No. 63-10
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc. These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Cyclical comparisons shown in tables 7, 8,
and 9 relate changes in the current expansion to
changes over periods of like duration during previous expansions.
In some cases the intervals
covered by the current expansion are longer than
those of previous expansions.
In tables 7 and 8
on reference cycle comparisons, the percentage
changes continue to be for the same period as
covered by the current expansion although, for
some periods, a contraction was underway.
In
table 9 on specific cycle comparisons, the percentage changes cover only the period of the specific
expansion; i . e . , to the specific peak level.
For
some expansions this interval is shorter than that
of the current expansion.
2. Series 30, Nonagricultural Placements, All
Industries, has been revised because of the introduction of a trading-day adjustment.
3. The summary measures shown for individual monthly series in appendix C have been recomputed for a more current period. The new computations change the period of the moving averages
shown in chart 1 for series 9, 82, 83, 84, and 91.
4. Appendix G shows historical data for series
30, 53, and 54.
The November issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on November
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments,
a paper "Business Cycle Indicators —The Known
and the Unknown" by Julius Shiskin was included as appendix H of the September 1963
issue.
This paper explains what is known
about business cycle indicators, the problems
of using them, and the research needed to improve their usefulness.
It was presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute in Ottawa, Canada, on August 24, 1963.
A limited number of copies of the September
issue of Business Cycle Developments are
available, free of charge. If you would like
copies, write to the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.,
20233.
11
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U . S . Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January I960 to
Present
6
11
14
15
18
20
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During
Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business
Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3.—Diffusion Indexes — Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present .
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic
Activities: January I960 to Present
•
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified
Time Spans and Percent of Series Rising: July 1962 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods
Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
E. ( D 5 ) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
State Programs
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
iii
30
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Contents
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9
Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as
Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates
in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from
Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After
the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
57
58
59
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of
Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for
Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1962
to December 1963)
Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (not shown this
month)
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 (not shown
this month)
Appendix G. —Historical Data for Selected Series
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
iv
61
62
63
65
66
67
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy.
The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series .
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
which have important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Method of P r e s e n t a t i o n
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1).—Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6). —
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( l) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, ( 2 ) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and ( 3 ) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
'will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
1
Descriptions and Procedures
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $ 100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
»
all manufacturing corporations
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U . S . business firms
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D, except for series 97 which is
the sum of seasonally adjusted components, and
series 9which is based on unpublished source data.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the collecting
agency will be substituted for the series mentioned
above whenever they are published.
MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series . This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.1 MCD moving averages are shown
for some series in chart 1. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for years
beginning with I960.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historical
series and shown in appendix C.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented— rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.—There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. 2 For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made .over
*For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 1961).
2
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
Descriptions and Procedures
1-month intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month
intervals depending upon the irregularity of the
series. Quarterly series are shown at 1-quarter
or 4-quarter intervals. The indexes based on 1month intervals are more "current" but they are
also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes
(see chart 2 ) . Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D 4 1 , D 4 7 , D 5 4 ,
and D58) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over 1-month and
either 3- or 5-month spans while, for 1 indicator
( D 5 8 ) , comparisons are over 1-month spans only.
The 12 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two indexes on capital appropriations
(602 companies and 15 industries)—NBER indexes
based on data from the National Industrial Conference Board; the Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based on monthly reports of changes
in profits (200 companies); and First National City
Bank of New York index based on quarterly profit
reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the following:
Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and new
orders (400 companies), based on data from Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity
groups), based on data from the Association of
American Railroads; and new plant and equipment
expenditures ( 16 industries), based on data from
the Office of Business Economics and the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
months (see table 3 ) .
Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions .
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table l ) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes .
These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures.
That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- or
5-month spans.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
Descriptions and Procedures
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans
from previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is designated as representing changes from
reference peak levels and from reference peak
dates .
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed
from their respective reference peaks to dates
which are the same number of months beyond the
succeeding reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of
comparison is designated as representing changes
computed from reference peak levels and from
reference trough dates. Although the spans from
reference trough dates are the same for each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak dates
are different, depending on the length of the contractions . This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares in this respect with
earlier recoveries .
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates. This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series), comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 r e f e r ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal
to 100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series ( charts 1, 2, and 3) . —
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Five ratio scales and several arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion or recession -with that
during the corresponding phase of previous business
cycles. In these charts the usual date sequence
followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the
data are alined at a strategic point of the business
cycle, either the trough or the peak.
Thus these
charts facilitate judgements on the vigor of a current expansion or the severity of a current recession relative to cyclical movements during the
corresponding phases of previous cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , t h e cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles.
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons.
Descriptions and Procedures
1,2,
3
(Apr.)
•«
'-
r
"—'
J
Peak (P) of cycle indicates —*•
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas) —*.
as designated by NBER
Solid line indicates monthly —
data. (Such data may be the
table-1 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexes-charts 2 and 3.)
(May) (Feb.)
^-^
1
|
"IroyghjT) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
as designated by NBER
••
,
'.
^T •
m
-—>
X^
«*
^w^A
A
?f*
a JALi
rTv y </
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
("5"= May)
A
M
1
^^-.^
Broken lines indicate table-1
data for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
*^
Parallel liru»s indicate a break '
in continuity--e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
A
^r
Roman number indicates latest
/ quarter for which data are plotted
("I" = first quarter)
See back cover for complete^
^^^^~ Dotted line indicates anticipated
^
^^6 . Bus. e xpend., rlew plan r
a id equip. (bil. do
fc.
Solid line with quarterly
plotting points indicates
quarterly data
HN^
_*4NM^Z V
^** '11
wH**^«
*^r
-^-*
*
—,40
~301
"V\
-
20
d
ny,,l.,
~S~
*s
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. IJScale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-V is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
J
"scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
42
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hrs.)
41
40 39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
5.0
4.0 '
3.0
30. Nonagr. placements, all indus. (thous.)
600 {
500;
400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)-inverted scale
2
1
3
75
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.)
inverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 5-term
100
CO
125 j
150 §
175
200
225
250
5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.)--inverted scale
200
CO
300^
400
500
.l..l.ilnfOTIotT4ii n l n l n l n ..I..I..I., n l n l n l n ,, I,, k.t^nU,, ..I..I..1.. u l n l n l n ,, I,, l^t+.U,, I n I,, ,,!,,!,,I,, ,, I ,.UT. >, I, ,1,, I,, ..Inlnln ..I..1..I
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1962 1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq. ft. floor area)
MCD moving average—6-term
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)-Q
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (mil.)
MCD moving average—6-term
29. New bldg. permits, private housing unitsj
(index: 1957-59=100)
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
New businesses and business failures
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.)-inverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 6-term
V*
li
;1
~/V
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.)—
inverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 6-term
nlnUit+
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956 1957 1958
1959 1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
J
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Profits and stock prices
35
30
25
20
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (bil. dol.)-Q
15
120
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
110 ^
-2
100 §
90
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)-Q \
12
10 3
8
|
6
20
16 ^
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate/
all industries (percent)-Q
j
12
8
80
70
60
50 '3
40 JJ
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
30
20
,i.l..inU AAAi ..I..I..L nlnlnln ..I. .Li.. ..LkAni fllfcAil.. ..I,.!.,!., nl.,1,.1,. . .1 , . l>4.r ^, , I , ,1 . , ..I..I..1.. . .1 ,
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3 f " page 5.
|
, , I . , I , . ,,l. ,!,,!., ..Inlnl
1961
1962 1963
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
I Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices
III
-flO
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bil. dol.)-Q
d
^
0
JMUpawr
J31. Change in book value, mfg.'::
- and trade inventories (bil.
-10
dol.)
+ 10
0
1
-10
20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of purch.
mtls. (bil. dol.)j
4- 4
A,
+
2
<
M
- 4
75
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventori
Wv,
NK\V
50
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 davs or longer
75
VAA
'"•XU
'\AA^r>A-
X
'^«v,
r
^\
1
<
50 i
u
vA
25
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil.
4
^^
50
25
75
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
*fi^
1
25
L.A
\y.T
dol.)
^v
Lry^
+ 3
+ 2 ^
•i- 1 J>
o
5,
- i
160
140 ^
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
I 101
120 ^
100 §
80
Ailf vtr*^ i
1948
1949
uliilufcxi
1950
T951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
11
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
B
1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May)
(F«b.)
P
T
T
60
Employment and unemployment
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.Jj
55 2
8
50
65
42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)
60 2
50
3.0
4.0
43. Unemployment rate (percent)--inverted scale
VA
5
-°i
6.0 *
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent)--inverted scale
2.0
3.0
4.0 <
5.0 §
6.0
7.0
45. Av. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent)--inverted scale
/\A
3.0
4.0
5.0 <
6.0 §
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)
120
100 cr,
80 I
60
, ..I..I..I.. ..1..I..I.. ..Inlnln ..InUAfi JrilAI.. ..I. .!..!.. ..1..I..I.. ..Inlulai
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1953 1954 1955
1956 1957
.I. .!..!.. nl.^^ ll. .!..!.. ..I..I..I.. ..!..!.. I
1958 1959
1960 1961 1962
1963
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Production
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)'
'1
100
III
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bil dol.)-Q
III
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol.)-Q
IH
57. Final sales (bil. dol.)-0
400-1
4
350
300
S
250
HJnltat..
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
2.2
2.0 ~
-j
JJ
1.8 §
51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)
1.6
475
450
400'
375
350
325
120
115
110
105
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)
100 :
95
90
85
80
21
20
19
18 ,
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
17 !
16
15
14
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods\
(index: 1957-59=100)
no
TOO
90 8
80
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
14
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (F.b.)
P
T
T
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)—Q
40
30
20
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
110
100
III
63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59=100)-Q
90
110
100
?0
70
60
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)
00
50
-j
40
«
30
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
26 ^
22 |
18 *
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
67. Bank rotes on short-term bus. loans (percent)-Q
Ill
. ..I..I..in ..I..I..I.. n l n l n l n ,, I n Iii1+i .JnU,, n l n l n l n n l n l n l n , .I., U.t ,4, ,l, .I,. ..I..I..L ,,l ..UT. >. I.. I,, I,. ..I..I..In ..I..I..1.
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 196L 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
°?
«
§
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.62
1.4-§
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)
1.2 *
1.0
.8
1.6
M
<7
1.21.0 §
.8
88. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.}
l.O
+ .8
+ .2
0
- .2
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance
of payments (bil. dol.)—Q
+1.0
+ .5
0
-1.0
-1.5
. ..I..I..In nlnlnln ..LI,,!., .. I, i hit^ i^U^ I. i ..I..I..L ,,|,,|,,lii ul,,luLi i*l..liiliL iiLililln uliJttk uJuliilii iiliilnl
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
3e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1963
Basic Data
16
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
P [
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
Federal budget and military obligations
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
- 120
82. Fed. cash payments to public (bil. do!
MCD moving average—6-term
A
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil.
MCD moving average-6-term
ol.)|
;
&P*&
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average—6-term
95. Surplus OK deficit
Fed. Income and prod.
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q
'
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.]|
MCD moving average— 6-term
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average-6-term
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average-6-term
—*
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1963
1.0
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
D •
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(July)
(May) (fob.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
£
L
+ .8
85. Change in money supply (percent)
+ .4
^o
1
0
-.4
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent)
+ .8
+
'4<
0
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.);
1
--.4
+ .8
•f .4
°
- .4
1
v>
- .8
no
100 i
rices (index: 1957-59=100)
90
140
120 ^
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100)
100 •
80
§
60
70
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur
60
CO
50
40
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.) -Q
J;
"5
«
30
10.0
8.0
6.0 «
1
4.0
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
18
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes
140
120
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59=100)
100 cv,
-j
80 S
60
140
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100)
120
100 jj
S
80
60
123. Canada (index: 1957-59=100)
140
47. United States (index: 1957-59=100)
'
120 cs
100 1
80
«l.. ..I..I..L nl, ,1..I.. nl.,Lfkr <4Ji ,1 nl,, nlnlnln nl.jfc&S frl. .iul.. ..LI..In ..I..LI.
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1963
19
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
Industrial production indexes—con
140
125. West Germany (index: 1957-59-100)
120^
-j
100 8
80
200
180
160
140'3
J>
128. Japan (index 1957-59-100)
120 §
100
-J80
160
140
126. France (index:
1957-59=100)
100 *
80
160
140
127.
Italy (index:
120
1957-59=100)
100
CM
80 ^
~o
60
40
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
Sec "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3, " page 5.
1955 1956 1957 1958
1959 1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
20
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lead in 2; Indicators
Year and
month
1 . Average 2. Accession
workweek of rate, manu- •
production facturing
workers ,
manufacturing
(Per 100
(Hours per
prod . wkr . )employees )
1960
January. .......
February
March.
April
May
June
September
October
November
40.6
40.2
39.9
39.7
40.0
39.8
39.8
39.6
39.5
39.6
39.3
©38.4
30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
cultural
rate, manuplacements , facturing
all industries
(Thous. )
Revised2
4. Number of
persons on
temporary
layoff, all
industries1
(Per 100
employees )
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.4
2.3
4.2
4.1
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.9
©3.5
3.6
3.6
518
519
501
512
490
48!
475
472
476
471
453
459
Q Q
O c?
(Pi / / /
/ /n
/ CQ
9 /
/ / C>
21
i Aa
o 9
(Thous. )
5. Avg. weekly 6. Value of 24. Value of
initial claims mf rs . ' new mf rs . ' new
for unemploy- orders, dur-orders, mament insurance, able goods
chinery and
equipment
State programs industries
industries
( Thous . ) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.)
122
110
116
156
160
145
177
154
153
166
128
183
281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
373
385
381
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22
5.04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5.17
5.01
4.78
4.96
4.87
©4.65
4.81
4.66
o q
173
/ 7Q
(Tl 999
91 ^
1/1
393
rpi/ 9Q
©12 88
rno q
lJO^ ,J3O
^A
/
070
qo-i
1 3 £9
3&
r -i n
?
.1U
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
1961
January. ,
March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
September
October
November .......
1962
January
February
April
May
August
September. .....
October
December
7Q 9
3Q /
-3Q /
3Q 5
3Q ft
/
3
/
/
i
/
/
Q
9
9
n
i
1
$
U
U
H
/
c}pv
QQ
i sn
i si
ocrt
J5o
ooy
101
/ C>
.054
0
31ft
1A
09Q
1 ^ 11
16 07
C
30^
9QA
i A in
c ni
J • /4
$/.,5540
<7Q
5 .1-1 ri/
/ Q /
9 9
/7Q^
4
,7
r-i o
^LtL
cpy7
9 ^
"I Q
cp/
c / p.
I0 3
04 4
/ 3
/ i
17
"i #
20
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
040.7
40.2
40.4
40.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
559
572
574
0592
557
557
550
555
554
559
540
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
20
2.0
21
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
154
082
118
112
116
114
128
131
120
129
139
114
304
291
16.43
16 19
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
16 00
5 78
5 71
5 59
15 73
A /7
1 c: 07
5 60
5 ft?
1 h 3/
5 69
5 ftp
5 #S
317
16 02
c. 7;
40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.3
p40.6
3 .7
3.9
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.9
r4.0
P3.6
(NA)
552
557
557
563
554
543
541
538
554
2.0
1.8
1.8
18
18
01 7
rl 9
p2.1
(NA)
179
112
108
146
87
85
3"!6
16 71
17 09
17 48
017 89
17 70
17 08
r!7 23
rl6 85
p!7 52
e, 7C.
5 8Q
QQ 3
QQ Q
40 o
QQ a
Z,0 3
/o 6
cc-\
22
1 3ft
127
113
"lie
127
Qn
H9
1 ^ A^
1 A 9/
is
16
15
15
16
/y
27
Ql
89
57
5OOi
, ^U
5 .2o
OS
5 •CJJC
1C
$ • 4->
CQ
c 7-1
5 60
1963
January. .......
February
March.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October ........
November
December
1 30
134
100
295
0277
288
287
288
286
28^
284
3
300
5 BA
6 01
6 14
ft i 5
yA nQ
r-A D7
im nA 9S
•"•Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
3
Week ended October 12, 1963.
21
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H!; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations ,
602 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building permits
12. Net change
in business
population,
operat ing
businesses
13 . Number
of new business incorporations
(1957-59=100)
(Thous. )
( Number )
1960
February
March
April
May
July
September
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5.58
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5.27
5.39
5.28
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
5.53
5.45
5.58
5.53
5.73
5.90
5.82
6.13
5.97
6.16
6.42
6.02
38.99
44.10
45.19
40.87
45.39
42.99
39.86
42.65
39.90
41.62
41.68
42.48
6.34
6.38
6.31
6.11
6.27
6.29
6.37
6.29
6.24
6.24
6.50
6.59
44.94
46.98
38.92
37.87
47.95
053.97
44.78
45.31
(NA)
6.36
6.51
6.37
6.63
07.02
6.87
6.70
6.68
(NA)
2*27
2*02
©1*78
2*10
1,444
1,508
1,107
1,252
1,249
1,231
1,184
1,285
1,113
1,210
1,192
©1,041
100.2
98.2
86.0
93.9
95.4
88.1
91.5
87.8
88.4
89.9
90.8
©87.0
1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
102.8
109.8
105.0
111.5
103.7
107.1
108.6
106.3
110.2
109.5
114.9
1H.5
1,317
1,353
1,549
1,590
1,590
1,554
rl,5v5
rl,419
SI pi, 654
110.0
109.3
112.9
111.3
117.9
120.5
115.1
rill. 4
Upl21.2
+19
+17
+14
+10
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,035
14,264
14,097
1961
March
April
May
July.
September
October
November
December
1962
January
April
Nfay
July
November
1.84
1.93
2*23
2.10
2.34
2.02
2.41
02.71
©+6
+10
+10
+ib
+ii
+12
+11
+11
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,711
15,279
15,775
15,727
15,372
15,363
14,990
15,171
15,216
15,232
15,121
14,892
14,767
1963
February. .."....
April
%y
July
2.15
2.59
(NA)
+ii
[3+12
(M)
14,457
15,398
15,604
15,257
15,756
15,512
15,356
16,201
(M)
22
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by |H"| ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p" , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures
(Mil. dol. )
15. Business 16. Corpofailures with rate profits
liabilities after taxes
of $100,000
and over
(Number per
week)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index
(1957-59=
100)
18. Profits
(before taxes ) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
( Cents )
( Percent )
(1941-43=10)
21. Change in
bus . inventories, farm and
nonf arm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )
1960
52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
April
May
76.52
©131.31
June
71.04
July
94.66
August .........
86.02
85.98
80.44
November
82.78
December
1961
January.
77.79
February
83.73
March
116.17
April
76.88
May
82.96
June
86.69
July
80.15
August
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81
1962
101.53
86.03
February
74.89
108.58
April
94.54
Nfay
91.70
107.48
July
132.64
August
September
103.73
122.39
October
98.94
December. ......
90.41
1963
January
February
March
April
May
July
Aueust
September
153.15
90.04
93.49
89.72
122.31
89.37
142.28
ED 58. 40
92.59
29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
24.'l
22.6
20.9
20.1
©19.2
21.6
22.0
24^3
37
032
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
49
42
41
40
54
38
38
42
44
24!2
24^6
24^3
25*.5
25.4
®26.8
November
1
Average for October 15, 16, and 17, 1963.\
103.6
102.3
101.9
101.4
100.8
100.4
100.4
99.9
99.9
100.0
99.9
98.9
99.2
©98.9
99.0
100.0
100.2
100.9
101.2
102.6
102.2
102.0
101.7
102.1
101.2
101.0
101.4
100.6
101.1
100.7
101.3
100.0
102.4
101.3
101.3
100.9
100.7
100.0
100.8
100.6
(NA)
rl01.9
rlOO.6
pl01.9
9.7
8.'6
9*.l
7.8
8^4
7.2
B.I
©6>!6
©7.7
7^6
s'.5
7^9
8!5
038.6
9.3
s!2
9.1
8.1
9il
s!i
8*.9
8*.3
9.1
7.9
9a
8.5
(E19.5
(M)
(NA)
:
102.1 :
(3103.1
S'.B
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.47
56.80
59.72
62.17
64.12,
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
072.85
1
72.88
+9*..
+4.
+2.
-2.
©-4.
+1,
+3'
+7
E+8
+6
+3
+4
+c
+1
+1
Basic Data
23
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by QTj; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories ,
total
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.1 inventories,
purchased
materials
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
37. Purchased
materials,
percent reporting higher
inventories
( Percent
reporting)
26. Buying pol-32. Vendor
icy, production performance ,
mat Is . , percentpercent
reporting com- reporting
slower
mitments 60
days or longer* deliveries*
( Percent
(Percent
reporting)
reporting)
25. Change in 23. Index of
manufacturers ' industrial
unfilled or- materials
ders, durable prices*
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1960
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4
48
58
52
47
44
45
42
37
41
38
41
39
64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48
44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
^0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.41
-0.30
105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
Q96.8
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.37
-0.02
+0.02
+0.46
+0.23
+0.11
+0.31
+0.35
+0.06
+0.29
+0.34
+0.55
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
0104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3.1
+4.3
+3.3
-3.0
+5.7
+3.8
-1.9
+3.1
03+5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.8
-0.9
+0.7
058
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
®6l
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.53
+0.22
-0.10
-0.34
-0.31
-0.32
-0.05
-0.57
-0.55
-0.18
-0.52
r-0.03
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.3
+1.9
+4.7
+2.8
+3.8
+7.5
r+5.4
p-0.1
(NA)
+1.1
+1.0
+0.3
+1.0
-0.3
+1.1
r+1.5
p-0.7
(NA)
46
48
46
49
57
57
55
50
50
50
55
54
53
52
'57
54
55
56
50
52
54
©60
58
+0.31
+0.61
[H] +1.42
+0.64
+0.81
-0.36
r-0.45
r-0.20
p+0.41
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
>96.3
+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
+0.4
-0.6
+2.4
-2.1
-6.2
1961
February
March
April
May
July
August
September
December
1962
January
March
April
Nfay
October
-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
-HO. 7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
0+7.8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0
1963
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
December
1
Average for October 15, 16, and 17, 1963.
%
48
52
Basic Data
24
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by fiTl; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do.
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
41 . Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
( Thous . )
1960
January
42. Total 43. Unemnonagricul- ployment
tural em- rate, total1
ployment ,
labor force
survey1
(Thous. )
40. Unem•45. Avg. weekly
insured unemployment
rate, mar- ployment rate,
1
ried males State programs
( Percent )
( Percent )
( Percent )
46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers
(1957*100)
(1957-59=
100)
54,331
54,527
54,499
54,728
54,555
54,449
54,395
54,352
54,248
54,160
54,015
53,752
60,521
60,863
60,464
61,144
61,252
61,215
61,090
60,982
61, 1U
60,857
61,142
©60,801
5.29
4.96
5.45
5.21
5.18
5.46
5.48
5.66
5.60
5.98
6.20
6.60
3.38
3.11
3.53
3.35
3.42
3.60
3.72
3.85
3.80
4.28
4.22
4.74
4.27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
111.7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,725
©53,541
53,615
53,713
53,911
54,165
54,294
54,444
54,480
54,593
54,825
54,927
60,980
60,912
61,314
61,111
61,091
61,448
61,254
61,283
61,330
61,476
61,766
61,788
6.68
7.03
6.82
7.01
©7.11
6.91
6.96
6.67
6.69
6.42
6.07
5.98
4.78
©5.09
4.72
4.91
5.00
4.78
4.74
4.61
4.54
4.12
3.94
3.91
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,946
55,223
55,368
55,703
55,822
55,908
56,010
56,019
56,125
56,195
56,205
56,211
61,882
62,148
62,356
62,295
62,552
62,541
62,715
63,017
63,074
63,036
62,708
63,248
5.84
5.69
5.49
5.58
5.52
5.50
5.43
5.67
5.63
05.34
5.76
5.54
3.81
3.59
3.53
3.69
3.48
3.64
3.54
3.54
3.43
3.35
3.43
3.57
4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
3.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4.38
4.55
4.84
4.79
102.3
105.9
0106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
92.8
96.8
95.9
e95.2
114.6
116.3
117.3
117.8
118.3
118.4
119.4
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.5
119.1
56,333
56,458
56,706
56,873
57,060
57,194
r57,340
r57,325
0p57,427
62,988
63,245
63,628
63,851
63,643
63,693
64,137
64,079
064,192
5.77
6.09
5.59
5.65
5.91
5.66
5.61
5.48
5.55
3.81
4.04
3.50
3.37
3.37
3.12
3.14
2.96
02.92
4.84
4.69
4.39
4.03
3.96
S3. 53
4.08
4.14
4.00
2
4.08
e97.5
elOO.5
e98.5
100.2
95.9
94.7
96.2
94.0
P92.9
119.2
120.2
121.3
122.5
124.5
r!25.8
0126.5
125.6
p!25.7
March
April
May
June
July
September
October.
50. Gross
nat ional
product in
1954 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
439.9
442 !i
440.2
437.1
1961
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
December
1962
March
April
1-fay
June
July
August.
October
November
©434.0
443.4
450.4
463.1
467.2
474 .*C
475 !<f
481. /
1963
March
April
May
July
October
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series.
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended October 5, 1963.
485!:
489.^
0494. :
Prior to April 1962,
Basic Data
25
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement, unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (ju) and current highs, by IH"! ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, -40, 43, and 4-5).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
49. Gross national product
in current
dollars
Year and
month
57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. do]. )
51. Bank
debits outside
NYC, 343
centers
52. Personal
income
53. Labor
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
February
March
April
May
500*4
49i*.i
504.1
499.9
503 '.5
500.7
50a'.l
504.4
©500.4
504*7
512 '.5
511*4
521 ".9
518*3
537 '.8
530*. 5
544.5
536*3
552*4
546! 6
556*8
553*1
565 '.2
561.2
July
September
October
December
55. Index of
54. Sales of
retail stores wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59*100)
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
3°5.Q
395.6
395.9
400.8
402.3
403.0
402.7
403.5
404.4
405.2
404.5
©403.2
108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,097
18,200
18,178
18,557
18,320
18,312
18,113
18,195
18,207
18,298
18,080
18,008
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
404.4
405.3
410.1
411.7
4H.5
417.3
420.8
419.1
420.5
424.3
428.4
431.3
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
430.1
434.0
436.4
439.5
440.8
441.7
443.5
444.6
445.5
447.7
449.9
452.1
111.3
112.8
114.0
116.1
116.0
115.9
116.6
116.8
116.7
116.5
116.9
116.5
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,769
19,875
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
©100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
.2,148.8
2,086.4
2,096.3
2,198.7
2,151.1
2,105.3
2,276.6
r2, 194.1
(H1P2, 280.0
454.0
452.9
454.8
457.4
460.1
462.6
464.2
_, r465.1
[Elp466.4
116.4
117.1
117.8
119.4
120.8
121.6
121.6
r!21. 8
EJpl22.0
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
[Hlr20,719
r20,676
p20,170
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.2
100.5
100.8
100.9
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1961
January
*.
March
April
May
October
November
December
1962
January
March
April
May
July
Augus t
October
1963
March. .........
April
May
:
July
August.
September
October
November
571*8
566*.6
579*6
575.3
0588.5
Hfeek ended October 15, 1963.
©584.0
151 101.0
100.9
100.9
1
Basic Data
26
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
11
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
63. Index of
64. Book value
of manufaclabor cost
turers ' invenper unit of
output, total tories, all
manufacturing
GNP
industries
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
65. Book value 66. Consumer
installment
of mfrs. 1 indebt
ventories of
finished goods,
all manufacturing indus.
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
38,971
39,452
39,878
40,377
40,672
41,013
41,299
41,508
41,762
41,898
42 ,032
42,143
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
- 21.5
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
42,118
42,032
41,986
41,865
©41,856
41,900
41,904
41,959
42,008
42,170
42,439
42,787
55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
57.2
57.3
57.2
57.4
22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.7
22.8
23.0
43,066
43,338
43,716
44,209
44,648
45,069
45,455
45,813
46,015
46,399
46,980
47,438
57.5
57.7
57.9
58.1
58.4
58.8
r58.9
[H]p59.0
(NA)
23.0
23.0
23.2
23.2
23.3
23.6
23.5
E)p23.7
(NA)
47,925
48,350
48 ,,739
49,270
49,704
50,137
50,638
051,063
(NA)
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
1960
35.15
March
April
May
36.30
July
August. ........
35.90
October
November
December
1961
January
35.50
33^85
March
April....
May
June
July
August
©33*50
34*70
October
35*.40
December
1962
35*70
March.
April
Itey
36*95
July
038*35
September
October
November .......
37 '.95
1963
January
March
April
May
36 '.95
•.•
38.05
July
September
October
a39*.95
aU.15
97.1
98.6
99.1
99.7
100.3
100.9
100.9
101.4
101.2
101.2
101.7
102.2
101,9
102.1
102.0
100.8
100.4
99.6
99.3
©98.1
98.4
98.5
99.1
98.7
99.4
99.5
99.0
99.9
99.7
100.1
99.7
G3101.0
98.9
99.7
99.5
99.9
99.4
100.1
99.0
99.1
98.3
97.9
r99.2
rlOO.5
P 98.9
103*3
104*. 3
105,2
105.2
106.0
106.0
105 ".8
©104*.7
105 *8
106.5
107.1
106.6
107*1
108.3
SI 108." 6
5*. 34
5*.35
4.97
4.99
...
4*97
4*97
4*99
(D4*.96
4*. 98
5*.oi
4.99
IE5.02
5. "66
5.01
5.01
Basic Data
27
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by QH]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments ,
total
Year and
month
87. General
imports ,
total
88. Merchandise
trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 82. Fedreceipts (+) eral cash
or payments payments
(-) in U.S. to the
balance of public
payments
83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+)
or deficit (-)
95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product acct.
(/Inn. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol. )bil.dol. ) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil. dol.)
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
1960
March
April
May
July
August. ........
October
November
December
1961
January
March
April
May
July
August
October.
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,654.8
1,812.1
1,674-4
1,802.6
1,782.1
1,838.3
1,728.9
1,687.3
1,943.3
1,492.8
1,695.2
1,838.9
1,327.4
1,315.4
1,339.3
1,363.8
1,386.4
1,342.4
1,361.8
1,364.2
1,476.4
1,318.9
1,431.7
1,371.9
+327.4
+496.7
+335.1
+438.8
+395.7
+495.9
+367.1
+323.1
+466.9
+173.9
+263.5
+467.0
982.2
2,130.7
1,990.8
1,918.1
1,900.5
1,813.6
1,779.4
1,896.6
(NA)
1,093.2
1,493.2
1,484.3
1,423.3
1,406.2
1,410.2
1,469.2
1,532.5
(M)
-111.0
+637.5
+506.5
+494.8
+494.3
+403.4
+310.2
+364.1
(NA)
-775
-831
•• •
-1,018
1
-1,257
-472
2
+31
-655
-1,274
89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.0
96.3
89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
101.4
99.5
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
rll6.5
106.5
r 116.0
rl!7.3
116.2
rl08.4
126.1
118.4
122.2
107.7
109.8
106.9
110.1
113.9
112.2
114.9
116.1
112.4
r-8.8
+3.3
r-9.1
r-7.2
-2.3
r+3.8
-11.2
-2.3
-9.8
0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9 .
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
-0.6
+3.2
+8 '.2
+5.2
+i!4
-i.*2
-6 .'6
-5.4
-4.*6
-2*.5
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,488
1,397
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,589
1962
February
March
April
Nfay
July
August.
October
December
1963
February
March
April
May
July
August
October
November
-585
-452
-356
-793
-851
-1,262
(M)
.
1
Includes
2
single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
-'i.6
-3 '.6
-3 '.6
-5^3
-4.*6
-3/0
(M)
1,872
1,211
1,254
1,831
1,182
1,325
1,934
1,386
1,037
1,805
1,755
1,022
1,732
1,228
1,023
1,275
1,594
rl,392
1,417
1,713
(NA)
28
Basic Data
Table 1.-BAS1C DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by fiTI; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
Year and
month
92. Military prime
contract
awards to
U.S. business firms
85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money
supply
98. Percent 93. Free
change in reserves*
money supply and
time deposits
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) ( Percent ) (Percent) (Mil. dol.)
1960
January
February
torch
April
May
July
August. ........
October
November
December
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
1962
January
February
April
Jfey
July
August. ........
September
October
November
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
..
81. Index
of consumer
prices
94. Index 96. Mfrs.1
of conunfilled
struction orders ,
contracts , durable
total
goods invalue
dustries
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.) (Bil. dol.)
3,234
3,439
3,368
3 ,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,999
3,357
4,109
3,583
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
40.21
40.36
40.07
40.07
-0.14
40.28
-0.14
-0.38
-0.10
-0.00
-0.05
-0.05
40.53
40.67
40.38
40.47
40.28
40.52
-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
437
4120
4247
4414
4480
4614
4669
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
111
120
47.56
46.77
46.00
45.32
45.13
44.91
44.67
44.50
44.37
43.60
43.19
42.89
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,476
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
+0.14
+0.28
4-0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
+0.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
t517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
42.52
42.49
42.51
42.97
43.20
43.31
43.62
43.97
44.03
44.32
44.66
45.21
4,488
3,990
3,914
4,402
4,126
4,019
5,026
4,623
3,968
4,914
4,936
3,785
3,073
2,135
2,225
1,885
1,808
1,808
2,068
2,488
2,242
3,089
3,154
1,758
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0.68
+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.4
105.5
105.6
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.8
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.74
45.96
45.86
45.52
45.22
44.90
44.85
44.28
43.73
43.55
43.03
43.00
4,714
4,050
3,593
4,031
4,682
r4,357
5,019
4,871
(NA)
2,390
2,674
2,157
1,786
2,16$
1,962
2,572
3,213
(NA)
+0.54
-0.07
+0.20
+0.34
0.00
+0.27
+0.60
-0.13
p+0 27
+0.98
+0.44
+0.72
+0.52
+0.44
+0.47
+0.75
+0.39
p+0. 47
+384
+300
+271
+313
+248
+141
+158
r+137 I
p+90
106.2
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.4
106.7
107.1
107.2
(NA)
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
(NA)
43.40
44.01
45.43
46.07
46.88
46.52
r46.06
r45.86
P46.27
7^92
7.68
7.27
7*02
6.68
6. *55
6^8
6!53
6.82
6.81
6!87
7 '.29
•• •
7.06
7.46
(NA)
Basic Data
29
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (C) and current highs, by [H! ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Internationa] L comparisons of industrialL production
1
Year and
month
47. United
States ,
index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
109
109
112
113
107
118
132
109
110
112
112
111
111
112
112
112
110
112
107
108
105
105
105
104
104
105
105
113
115
115
116
118
118
115
118
108
108
110
110
111
112
112
115
122
123
^23
124
126
136
137
140
140
143
IP'S
T /<5
127
127
i P£>
148
151
120
122
11*5
11A.
1PQ
1 *57
105
111
110
110
110
110
109
109
108
107
105
104
129
158
117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
103
103
104
107
109
111
112
113
112
114
115
116
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
162
160
166
166
172
175
179
182
183
187
190
191
122
I?/
108
110
111
110
113
113
115
115
1PA
116
117
118
118
1 PQ
1 ?5
i PP
123
1
/Q
147
1 ^1
i on
188
12A
123
-( /Q
1 Q3
1 Q/
1 QA
1 Q/
-1-74
121. OECD,
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
111
112
114
113
114
116
118
116
116
117
118
118
1960
March
April
hfey
June
July
August. ........
September
105
•
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
IPO
1961
February
March
April
May
July
August
October
1962
February
March
April
my
June ...........
July
August
October
123
12A
125
i p/
125
126
127
1 P7
128
127
11 /
113
11 /
116
116
117
118
118
1 1Q
-\-\c.
nQ
110
113
110
1 1Q
1 1&
1 1Q
1 1Q
1 PO
11 Q
120
120
120
1 1Q
120
11 Q
128
1 PQ
1 3D
1 3O
1 31
1 3P
1 op
1 33
1 3P
i py
1 P3
125
1 ?5
126
128
i *n
i c;3
1/7
J-4/
1 51
11Q
1 Ql
i ^n
iQy
J-74
1 QP
128
126
1 ^3
1 ^#
i An
1 Q3
1 QQ
1 Q7
-ppnc;
1 QP
1 Ql
1963
January
February
April
May
July
August
126
126
126
1 30
130
132
131
(NA )
110
111
113
11A
1 Pf)
115
1 "I C
Y»l P/
116
(NA }
122
(NA. )
-) pp
-i o /
126
126
126
•nl PA
October
^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
127
1^8
1 P7
ycc
-pi Ap
1 PQ
1 31
1 3/
1 3D
1 30
(NA "i
•rl AA
1 oo
1 PP
1 23
r!24
129
128
•LJ<1 33
-L.7-3
1 33
rl 3Q
1 35
1 35
(NA 1
rl66
-i £.£.
(NA ^
r205
pnc
PI P
(NA ^
V^AJ
Analytical Measures
30
Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0,6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +Q.6.
Series
1963
Avg.
Measure change,
of
Jan.
to
change 1953-1
1963 Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar.
Mar.
to
Apr.
Apr.
to
May
May June
to
to
June July
July
to
Aug.
Aug. Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.2
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
6.
24.
9.
10.
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. placements, all industries...
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
Avg. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted).
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment industries...
Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings..
Contracts and orders for plant and
Percent . .0.5
..do
4.9
..do
1.8
..do
9.5
-0.2
+5.4
+0.9
+10.0
+0.5
-2.6
0.0
0.0
-1.0
+7.9
+1.1
0.0
+1.0
-7.3
-1.6
0.0
17.8
+37.4
+3.6
-35.2
+40.4
5.3
+6.6
+6.1
-4.0
..do
3.8
+2.3
+2.3
..do
4.6
+2.4
-0.8
+4.5
-17.2
-2.7
+2.4
-2.2
+4.1
..do
. .do. . .9.7
..
..do
4.6
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
11.2
..do
602 manufacturing corporations3
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
..do
7.3
29. Index of new private housing units
3.8
authorized by local bldg. permits.... ..do
12. Net change in business population,
2
Thous ....
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent. . 2.7
14. Current liabilities of business
16.9
..do
failures ( inverted ).
15. No. of business failures with liabil13.1
ities of $100,000 and over (inv.).... ..do
7.7
16. Corporate profits after taxes3
..do
0.7
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.... ..do
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
sales, all mfg. corporations3
..do
7.7
22. Ratio, prof its (after taxes) to income
originating corporate all indus. •• .do.. .. 5.8
2.6
..do
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
Ann. rate,
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm and
2.5
bil dol
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
3.6
..do
20. Change in book value of mfrs.1 inven1.6
..do
0.0 -0.2
-0.2
+2.6 +2.6 -10.0
-2.0 -0.4 -0.6
+5.6 -11.8 -10.5
+0.7
NA
+3.0
NA
+2.3
-52.9
-3.1
+25.4
+0.3
-0.3
+0.7
+0.3
+0.4
+2.3
-1.1
-3.5
+0.9
-2.2
+4.0
+2.9
+2.2
+0.2
-1.0
-0.3
+3.5
+26.6 +12.6
-17.0
+1.2
NA
-2.1
-2.5
-0.3
NA
-20.7
+5.9
NA
+20.5
+2.7
+14.5
+2.6
0.0
-2.3
+1.4
-9.9 +16.6
-0.6
+3.3
-1.4
+5.9
+2.2
-4.5
-3.2
+5.5
+1
0
+1.3
-2.2
-1.5
-1.0
+41.2
-3.8
+4.0 -36.3 +26.9
-59.2
+2.4
+2.4 -35.0
+5.5
-0.2
+1.5
+14.3
-0.4
-0.7
+0.8
-4.8
0.0
+1.3
+29.6
+1.0
-1.2
+4.7
+4.4
+2.0
-1.3
-4.8
+1.3
NA
0.0
-1.5
-0.8
+1.1
NA
+59.0 -58.5
0.0 -10.5
+7.6
-0.4
+8.8
NA
+6.5
+3.3
-5.
NA
+2.8
+2.6
0.
+0 2
-1.4
+2.8
-1.9
+1.0
+3.7
-2.1
-5.5
NA
-0.1
-0.7
+0.7
-1.3
+1.4
+0.4
-2.2
NA
+4.3
-4.2
+6.5
+16.3
0.0
-3.5
-9.1
0.0
+10.0
-1.8
-1.9
-1.9
+9.6
-5.3
+1.9
+1.8
+4.0
+3.8
+11.1
-3.3
-6.9
-22.2
+14.3
+8.3
37. Purchased materials, percent reportPercent. . 6.8
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
, 5.8
report, commitments 60 days or more.. ..do
32. Vendor performance, percent report..do..... 7.7
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders,
Bil. dol.i 0.38
23. Index of industrial materials prices.. Percent.. 1.3
+0.30 +0.81
-0.7
-0.4
-0.78 +0.17
+0.1 +0.7
-1.17 -0.09
-1.4 +0.3
+0.25 +0.61
0.0 -0.1
+2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cul. .do
0.3
+0.2
+0.4
+0.3
+0.3
+0.2
+0.3
0.0
+0.2
0.4
4.1
5.5
+0.4 +0.6
-5.5 +8.2
-6.0 +13.4
+0.4
-1.1
+3.7
-0.3
-4.6
0.0
+0.1
+4.2
+7.4
+0.7
+0.9
-0.6
-0.1
+2.3
+5.7
+0.2
-1.3
+1.4
4.8
+3.1
+6.4
+8.2
+1.7 +10.9
-15.6
-1.5
+3.4
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,
..do
..do
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted ) .
..
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
..do
State programs ( inverted )
See footnotes at end of table.
—2
Analytical Measures
31
Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 1-4, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
Avg.
Measure change,
of
Jan.
change 1953-1
1963 . to
1963
Feb.
to
Mar.
Mar.
to
Apr.
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June
June
to
July
July
to
Aug.
Aug. Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.2
+3.1
+0.8
+0.8
+1.2
+1.0
-2.0
+0.9
+1.7
+1.0
-4.3
+1.6
+0.8
+1.4
+1.5
-1.3
+1.0
+1.6
+0.6
-2.3
-0.7
+1.0
+1.5
+1.5
-1.2
+0.1
-2.9
-0.2
+0.5
+0.4
+4.9
+0.6
-2.2
+0.6
-2.1
+0.5
+8.1
+0.3
-3.6
+0.2
+3.9
+0.3
+0.6
-0.1
+0.6
-0.1
+1.4
-0.4
+1.2
-0.4
+0.7
+1.4
0.0
+1.1
+0.2
-0.2
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+0.3
+0.3
+0.1
+0.1
-0.1
Feb.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46, Index of help-wanted advertising in
Percent . .3.4
1.1
..do
Index of industrial production
3
Gross national product in 1954 dol. .. ..do
1.4
do
Gross national product in cur dol
1.9
3
1.6
do
Final sales (series 49 minus 21 ) .
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers....do
1.5
. . do
0.5
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
..do.... . 0.8
0.8
..do
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
0.2
..do
47.
50.
49
57
51.
0.0
0.0
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
o.c
5
3.6
-2.6
..do
0.6
+0.7
..do
10
+0 5
06
+0 3
+0 3
+0 3
+0 5
+0 7
+0 2
+0 2
NA
0.6
08
0.0
+0 Q
+0.9
+0 8
0.0
+1 1
+0.4
+0 Q
+1.3
+0 9
-0.4
+1 0
+0.9
+0 8
NA
NA
3.0
-0.4
+5.0
+3.0
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
63, Index of labor cost per unit of output total GNP3
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, all
. . do
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
. . do
67. Bank rates on short-term business
3
..do
loans, 19 cities ....
-1.1
+0.1
-0.8
-0.4
+1.3
0.0
+0.2
.. do ..... 4.6 +116.9 -6.6 -3.7
3.6 +36.6 -0.6
-4.1
. .do
Mil. dol.59.5 i-748.5 -131.0 -11.7
286
. .do
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . .5.7
5.4
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol. 5.5
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
3
2.5
..do
and product account *
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . .26.9
15.1
..do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
-58
-1.6
+0 3
+1 1
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship87. General imports total
88. Merchandise trade balance^.
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
+1.3
-0.5
-4.6
+0.3
-90.9
-1.9
+4.2
-93.2
+6.6
+4.3
+53.9
-6.7
-1.5
+16.3
+2.4
-6.1
+3.2
+1.0
-3.2
+6.1
-15.0
-0.9
-1.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
-8.6
+8.9
+1.1
+1.9
-2.6
+3.0
-411
-0.9
+3.5
+12.1
-12.4
+1.9
+4.9
+8.9
-7.5
+0.7
-29.1
-14.1
NA
+1.6
-16 ! 7+24.6 +25.0 -12 '.7 +i.*8 +20.9
-2.9
-6.9 +15.2
-11.3 +12.2 +16.1
NA
NA
+11.9
-19.3
NA
-0.61
+0.27
+0.14
-29
+42
92. Military prime contract awards to
..do
26.2
-17.2
+21.2
-9.4
+31.1
+24.9
85. Change in money supply excluding time
94.
96.
97.
98.
..do
0.23
Mil. dol. 107
Percent. . 0.2
7.0
Index of construe, contracts, total... ..do
1
1.4
Mfrs. unfilled orders, dur. goods.... ..do
3
6.3
Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. . . .do
Change in money supply including time
0.21
..do
-84
0.0
+7.4
+1.4
-3.2
-0.34 +0.27 +0.33 -0.73 +0.40
-21
-47
+17
-107
-65
+0.4
+0.1
-0.1
NA
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
NA
-9.2 ' +5.9 +15.2
+4.8
-6.7
-6.3
-1.0
+3.2
+1.8
-0.8
+0.9
-0.4
+1.4
NA
+5.7
-0.54 +0.28
-0.20
-0.08
+0.03 +0.28 -0.36
+0.08
average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
2
among the series, covering 1953-63 for most monthly series and 1948-62 for most quarterly series.
Percentage changes
3
cover part of this period only.
Quarterly series; figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNP (series 49) shown in the Jan.-Feb. column refers to the change from the
4th quarter of 1962 to the 1st quarter of 1963.
^Figures are the month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in
the figures shown in table 1.
Anticipated. Percent change from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter, based on anticipated
data is +3.0.
Analytical Measures
Table 3.--DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
May
1960
July
1957
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
22
1
2
2
14
2
1
3
2
1
3
4
11
1
1
4
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
19
16
12
1
1
1
2
2
3
1
3
*18
0
20
1
2
1
3
2
1
1
4
23
0
23
0
2
19
21
!l8
0
23
0
23
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
2
1
1
1
3
3
1
1
2
1
4
1
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was* reached
1
2
3
3
5
11
9
11
27
11
45
2
2
3
1
4
4
2
3
3
3
6
11
36
11
36
11
27
11
55
6th month before business cycle peak
Jan.
1957
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Nov.
1959
1
4
4
2
3.
11
27
1
Current expansion
June
1963
Aug.
1963
July
1963
Sept.
1963
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
6
1
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
17
1
1
1
19
16
4
2
1 month
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
2
1
!l8
6
2
4
4
4
2
4
12
12
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
5
2
2
2
5
0
23
4
23
9
23
22
23
0
1
1
10
2
2
2
5
6
"2
2
1
2
1
4
23
9
16
25
2
2
2
1
2
1
5
11
45
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
1
3
4
2
4
2
Benchmark month
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
5
2
3
6
2
5
3
2
3
'*6
1
8
1
5
3
11
45
11
55
11
27
11
27
11
55
11
73
11
27
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
•"•5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
33
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Percentage
Dl. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (21 Indus.)
fS-mo. interval 1
Expanding
D6. New orders, dur. goods indu
[5-mo. interval ]
D11. Newly approved capital appropriati
602 cos. [4-quarter interval ]
| "•
—— 15 Indus. [1-quarter interval]
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval ]
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval]j.
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
F3-mo. interval 1
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur
(47 areas)--inverted
[5-mo, interval 1
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See *How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Analytical Measures
34
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT— Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(July)
(Oct.)
I
(Aug.)
tt.Ti
D41.
(May)
P
(July) (Apr.)
i i IiT
Percentage
Expanding
(Feb.)
7
Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
100
V
\p£ \
50
0
D47. Industrial production (24 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
100
1A
I—V\
50
0
D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[5-mo. interval ]
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
CHARTS i|
35
DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
^^^J
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
1
1
(July)
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
P T
\
1
Percentage
Expanding
(May) (Feb.)
P T
t
i
•
m •
i1
-• Actual
•
•• Anticipated
-
D35. h et sales all mfrs,. (800 a
[4-quart er interv al]
— 100
M'Ut.^^.
*«
^-»
Change in total carloadings
^
/"
*^**£'
•v^C "'•>»J
50
— 0
D36. h lew orde rs, dur. c oods mfi s. (400 c:os.)
[4- quarter i nterval ]
'^•••^Tns
^^^ **
«
T
N^ ^«
^
s
100
•*>*^.
*4^...
^*«,
•«»
^^*i
<
At
***~twjT
50
— 0
D48. C arloadin g s ( 1 9 m :rd. comrnodity gr oups)*
[4 •quarter nterval .
/ *^
ft
\ '••
r\
• *••••* **•
'*"**•.
/
•*' Jl \
^*?>
/
"S^ ***"•. .«••
**
...%
'\
'*
\
—i 100
/-~V
•.
**
50
"^ *
— 0
D61. N ew plan and equ ipment e xpend. ( 17-22 ind us.)
[1-quar ter intenta\ ]
Vx
\
r \yVr
^
r
f
\ /^
100
xx^>
"A
H
/
..&**
r**1*^"*.
•*"*••.
?
\ r
N
50
-I o
mi-tin in ..I,. 1., In
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (July 1963)
D48 (September 1963)
D61 (August 1963)
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
2nd Q 1962 - 2nd Q 1963
4th Q 1961 - 4th Q 1962
4th Q 1962 - 4th Q 1963
4th Q 1961 - 4th Q 1962
1st Q 1963- 2nd Q 1963
3rd Q 1963- 4th Q 1963
^Increase of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1963
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4-th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34- and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
Year and
month
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
40.5
14.3
35.7
35.7
81.0
19.0
50.0
31.0
19.0
83.3
7.1
7.1
38.1
14.3
19.0
59.5
45.2
64.3
14.3
16.7
31.0
7.1
4.8
23.8
28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
38.1
52.4
38.1
45.2
16.7
54.8
33.3
23.8
33.3
33.3
28.6
33.3
95.2
71.4
54.8
81.0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73.8
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8
66.7
95.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
78.6
88.1
54.8
97.6
85.7
81.0
26.2
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
28.6
76.2
61.9
85.7
71.4
76.2
81.0
76.2
81.0
78.6
61.9
57.1
54.8
14.3
73.8
73.8
76.2
21.4
28.6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5
21.4
59.5
88.1
78.6
40.5
21.4
21.4
59.5
35.7
38.1
31.0
73.8
71.4
57.1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
33.3
33.3
71.4
54.8
38.1
47.6
47.6
57.1
47.6
52.4
57.1
52.4
66.7
71.4
38.1
76.2
85.7
52.4
73.8
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
r42.9
P57.1
71.4
64.3
31.0
52.4
54.8
78.6
47.6
P52.4
57.1
61.9
57.1
57.1
69.0
40.5
r66.7
r38.1
p6l.9
57.1
66.7
76.2
71.4
r71.4
r50.0
P52.4
1960
January.
March
April
May
July
September
October
December
1-month
interval
5 -mo nth
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 com- b. 15 induspanies
tries
4-quarter
interval
1-quarter
interval
56.7
*44
33^3
'46
•. •
233
*40
66*. 7
*48
D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies )
1-month
interval
46
36
40
44
4-2
44
39
34
34
34
2B
30
1961
February
March
Apri]
May
June
July
October
November * • .
46.7
54
53 .*3
*58
70.0
*64
56\7
52
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
1962
April
May
July
Augus t .........
October
November
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
December
66.7
54
26 .*7
52
80.0
48
60.6
*53
40.0
(NA)
63*.3
(NA)
48
49
50
52
52
48
40
46
45
42
44
43
46
46
45
46
50
46
42
50
44
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
- month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around TOO
(80 industries)1
corporations)
1-quarter
interval
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22nd
(47 areas)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
1960
52
March
April
May
*40
July
August
*45
October
*47
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
34.0
54.8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
59.6
63.8
14.9
11.7
17.0
14.9
26.6
23.4
20.2
21.3
57.4
31.9
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
•52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
•53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74-5
23.4
57.4
59.6
61.7
66.0
68.1
66.0
61.7
93.6
93.6
68.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
79.2
62.5
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
48.9
22.3
63.8
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
88.0
62.5
54.4
60.2
58.3
66.7
46.2
50.0
46.2
65.4 •
34.6
46.2
50.0
2
73.1
50.0
58.3
50.0
53.8
34.6
38.5
38.5
34.6
2
65.4
36.2
87.2
47.9
44.7
48.9
71.3
46.8
55.3
36.2
63.8
44.7
53.2
83.0
46.8
53.2
57.4
1961
January
March
April
May
47
*60
July
August. ........
*58
October
*56
December .......
1962
January ........
March
April
May
June
July
54
*47
*48
October
*56
1963
January
fferch
April
May
July
50
*59
(NA)
October
December
1
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January 1960; on 85 components, February 1960 to November 1960;
on 82 components, December 1960 to February 1963; and on 80 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 22 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6C).
2
Average for October 15, 16, and 17, 1963.
Analytical Measures
38
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
D41. Number of employees
in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
5 -month
interval
D58. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. Indus.)
1-month
interval
1960
March
April
May
July
August
October
November
1961
January
March
April
May
July
October
December
1962
January
February
April
May
July
..
October
November
65.0
80.0
46.7
53.3
35.0
23.3
35.0
35.0
23.3
30.0
18.3
13.3
85.0
71.7
56.7
43.3
33.3
23.3
23.3
26.7
33.3
25.0
18.3
20.0
70. 8
20.8
58.3
39.6
75.0
54.2
39.6
45.8
25.0
33.3
27.1
20.8
45.0
33.3
61.7
56.7
86.7
88.3
70.0
70.0
56.7
71.7
81.7
63.3
15.0
40.0
43.3
78.3
85.0
90.0
90.0
66.7
80.0
80.0
78.3
76.7
45.8
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
55.0
80.0
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
45.0
33.3
43.3
78.3
88.3
88.3
80.0
73.3
65.0
51.7
38.3
35.0
26.7
28.3
43.3
29.2
83.3
83.3
75.0
83.3
62.5
54.2
58.3
79.2
29.2
54.2
U.7.
63.3
48.3
83.3
66.7
85.0
61.7
r75.0
r50.0
P4L7
53.3
65.0
71.7'
83.3
78.3
r75.0
r58.3
P66.7
47.9
43.8
45.8
89.6
4.2
66.7
45.8
45.8
45.8
79.2
22.9
37.5
45.8
77.1
43.8
39.6
52.1
50.0
18.8
56.3
37.5
35.4
50.0
43.8
60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
45.4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
41.7
58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4
43.8
43.8
64.6
62.5
64.6
56.3
83.3
87.5
95.8
81.3
83.3
83.3
38.6
41.3
54.6
59.7
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
55.9
43.4
41.2
51.1
50.0
66.7
91.7
83.3
70.8
79.2
68.8
79.2
41.7
62.5
45.8
58.3
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
85.4
93.8
89.6
70.8
81.3
79.2
70.8
54.2
95.8
95.8
81.3
79.2
64.7
43.5
61.1
46.7
68.6
4^.6
33.0
30.3
36.3
39.0
45.6
35.9
54.2
81.3
83.3
91.7
87'. 5
83.3
r81.3
p70.8
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
r66.7
r70.8
p20.8
81.3
56.3
45.8
58.3
r62.5
r75.0
P43.8
38.6
r41.3
50.3
42.3
73.0
r67 .1
41.7
r52.1
p60.2
75.0
43.8
41.7,
68.8
66.7
66.7
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20.8
1963
January
February
April
May
June
July
October
November
66.7
68.8
72.9
62.5
87.5
r75.0
r64.6
r64.6
P52.1
Analytical Measures
39
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Year and
month
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
D61. New plant and
quipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
D48. Freight car load ings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
Antici- Change in
pated total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
75.0
84.4
71.9
71.9
...
56.2
71.9
...
34^4
43!8
28.1
37.5
46.9
...
...
56.2
...
53ii
59!i
65.6
1960
February
March
April
May
61
*82
*58
74
50
76
•. .
31.6
68^4
+96
51
*68
31.6
78.9
-103
70
50
68
2l!l
50.0
-279
*6Q
*68
62
*68
26.3
42ii
-212
72
*82
*72
•• •
*78
36.8
89.5
...
^28
•. .
74
*83
73
*78
68.4
73.7
+79
*82
*S8
*82
*86
87.5
89.5
+125
...
*8i
*86
*78
*82
63 \2
89.5
+62
53
•. .
July
October
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July. . .. .
September
December
1962
January
...
*80
*88
76
*84
57.9
94.7
-67
76
•. .
*80
*74
*74
63 \2
89.5
-96
'72
*74
•. •
•• •
82
*71
70
(NA)
68.4
^66
'76
76
63 ".a
r+28
(NA)
*76
78.9
r+38
*76
68.4
Jferch..
April..
ffey. ....
July....
August.
62!f>
74
65.6
62.5
68!8
68.8
65.6
65.6
46.9
es'.s
40.6
50.0
65 '.6
75.0
(NA)
71*. 9
1963
February. ......
March
April
May
..
(NO
July
August
September
•October.
December
'so
*80
62*.5
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHAKGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING:
JULY 1962 TO PRESENT
A.--(Dl) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
1-month spans
1963
1962
21 industry components
r-l
3
i
C
ri
'-a
bjO
"3
i
iH
3
*ti
ft
<D
i
-P
o
i
>
o
i
bfl ft -P
d CD o
<5 CO O
36 48 81
3 -month spans
0
<y
i
>
o
S
fcO
r-l
O
£ , £ > £ - !
1963
1962
P - t > j C r —l t l O f t - P >
ft
-P
>
C
0
£>
? H ^ I > i C r H t l O f t - P > 0
c d < i ) , a i f t . s i : 3 : 3 3 < i ) o o a >
^ t L , S < t J S | - D | - o < ! c Q O 2 ; Q
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
7 ^ ? ? =? $
Og(^)i-^CiL.^;<r]>;>-T)i-M<i;r/}
7 60 60 *;? m / n 17 ^i / ^ / 5 / ^ ^7
21 21 60 36 38 31
11 71 £/
?1 *5P ^ 7Q / ^ 'S?
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
_
+
o
-
+ +
—
0
-
- + - o
—
O
+
o
o
o +
— +
+
O
0
— o +
— o o
-
H
-
0
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
o
-
+
+
-
Q
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
_ + _ - - _
— — +
---
H
-
— o ~ —
+
0
+
+ + --
o
o
o
— +
—
+
o
— —
o
o
- - - + ++
- + _ _ + - - + - - + - + 0 0
+ - - + + + - - + - + + +
+
0
0
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- 0
+
+
0
+
.
.
+ + -+0
+ - - -
+
+
+
+
+
+ + —
+ + -
.
_ _
+
_ _ _
+
+
o
-
+ + + +
—
+
o — — o
_ _ _ o
_
+
o
-
-
-
-
+
+
_
o
-
+
0
- 0
+
+
- - - + 0
+
>
D
+
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
,
-
-
0
,
-
+
- +
- _ + _ + _
+ _ + +
O
-
+
-
O 0
o
o
o o o
+ + -
- +
o +
_
+
o
+
_
+
+ +
- + + - + _ - + +
+
0
-O
+
+
- 0
+
- - 0
-
+ + +
+ +
-
0
O
-
+
--
+ +
- 0 - - 0
+
- + + - - - - + - - + 0 - + +'
+ • rising; o » unchanged; - « falling.
O
P
«yi
+
0
_ - + _ + _
— o o — o +
o
-
o o - +
+
+
+
0
-
+
+
0
+
+
+
0 - - -
+
+
+
_
0
+
0
-
+
-
+
-
0
+
0-
0
+
- + + - - - +
0
_ _ + _ _ _
+
-
+ + - - - - +
+
0
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.--(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
5-month spans
1-month spans
1963
1962
21 industry components
3 3&
71°?
•P
3 5 3
« 3 £
C
r-l
bfl
>
0
8 &a
i j. i
C
rO
«d
^
r<l>
0)
Q
cd
^
1
0
ft.
1
C
f-t
ri
S
fn
>i
£
1962
r-H
i Q«i crit
od
2
<«J 2
ft
^
rH
faO
81 33 33 71 55 38 57 62 57 57 69 40 67 38 62
+ - + + +
+ +
+ - + +
+ - + + -
Stone , clay, and glass products
^
'
-
- + -f-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
_
-
+
+
_ +
>
0
Pu
+3
>
rH
i
Other machinery*.
Fabricated metal products*
+
+
_
_
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
-
-
+
+
+ + -
+
0
+
i
-P
£>
>
i
O
rl
C
<d
£>
0
S
<tj
bfl
ft -P
>
1-7.
b
h
ol
h
q,
5 £ 8 fi
>>
C
H
bD
1-3
1
1-3
1
<1
1
S 3 3 ^
S
1
0
C
^
,0
fn
&
&s a a
§i s^ 5i sj
P<
-P
0
S
+
- - _
-
+ +
- -+
:;! + +-
+ + - +
- + + +
-
+
+
-
-t-
+
+
+
+ + + + +
+
+ + + + +
+ - +
__-*- + + + + +
+ - +
+ + -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+ +
+ +
_ _ • + _ -
+ +
-
+ + +
+
+
+
_
+
_
4+
+
+ -
+
+
+
_
+
+ +
>
I
-
:+ +:+:+ :
_
+ = rising; o « unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24-.
1
Includes durable goods industries not available separately.
>
-
-
+ -
i
ft
52 57 52 67 71 38 76 86 57 67 76 71 71 50 52
+
Construction maohinerv*
Office machines*
M
+ + - - + - +
+
+ + o - + - +
+ + o - + +
^ *.
-
-P
i 3i %i si &i ai s I « s s a
t
•-3 ^ -^ co o 2: •& & ai s ^ 5
1 ^ £ 3 £:
,£>
<D
Pn
bD
1963
rt
^
H*«
o
s
o
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.--(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
1-month spans
1963
1962
24 industry components
rH
;3
tlD
H.
CX
Q)
-P
o
>
O
0
(I)
*-3
1
C
<d
1
rH
tO
O
£Z
1
-P
II
1-3
»-3
«aj
o
CO O
b
2
3
3
1
tlD
d
3 -month spans
1
CU
o>
1
>
1962
C , a h It {>» • C iH b o a - 3 (f U
a Sj <i il SP pj ~j 3s |i ~^ 3^ <^ I ' Cd O'
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i i
|cd
O C
Q
r
^
Q ^ H ^ > s C r H b D P j - P >
^
S
^
i
^
^
^
W
68 78 35 7 99 85 98 79 44 91 85 52 29 75 77
+ + -+
+ 0 - + +
+
d b
ttfl
CX
-P
>
O
1
fc
1
>s
1
C
1
rH
1
bfl
1
ft
+ + _ +
- - - +
+
+
C
r
Q ? H h > i C r H H O P 4 - P > 0
|
^
1
- 3 f a S < t ! S | - D | - 5 <
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
- p > O C X l P H ^ l > » C
8 ^0 Qd' i cd^ Pi' i .piH SPI ^^fl S
l C o O Z
1 1 1
r j r*
^ ^ ^ c
Q
1
^
o
r1 H t l O a ,
8 67 31 73 90 99 93 94 91 90 88 62 54 60
- -
+ - - +
+
+ NA NA NA. NA. NA. NA. NA.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
::;:;;
...... . . . . . . . . .
,
+
Build ins materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Off!
O
iH
-t-NA.NA.NA.MNA.NA.NA.
+ +
+
+ + - - + + + + _ +
+
" " " + + + - + . +
Textile weavers
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
P > o
yO ! o2 <: Qu
i
i i
1963
'
-, .
- - - _ + _ + _ - + +
t
+ +
+
+
+ +
— o
+
+
+
.+
+
.+
+
^_
+
+
+
+
+
-h
+
- _ +
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
_
~
+
+
+
+
+
S
o
+
+
+
+
+ + -- + +
+
- J - + 0 .
......
Electronics
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
D
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
......
-i- « rising; o « unchanged; - » falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted. NA » Not available.
1
The 24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing 2 the diffusion index.
Based on 82 industries, July 1962 to February 1963, and on 80 industries thereafter.
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.--(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
1-month spa ns
1963
1
c
tl
Percent ris ing
I
rH
•3
/,?
o
Lead scrap ( Ib . )
Steel scrap (ton)
Hides ( Ib . )
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber ( Ib ) . .
Tallow ( Ib )
I
*>0
o
*>rt
+
+
+
o o o
o
*
.
.
8
^_
n
o
+
+
n
n
+
+
o
+
+
a
I
l
i
~D
0
<U
*S ^ ft a?
P<H
i
S
C
,0
cd
i
<u
<<
i
iS
^1
rH
cjj
i
ft
+
+ - < - - + - + +
+ - + + +
1
1
113
—
+
o
+
O
—
+
+ + +
+ + +
o
+
+
o
-p
rH
3
^
1
^
b£)
2
^
1
>>
ft
-p
o;
CO
1
c rH
8
1 ^ fi ^
7Q
i
o
o
i
i
i
T
i
i
i
,
_
o
o
+
i
i
i
i
62 50 58 50 54. 35 38 38 35 65
— —
+
o
0
no ft
42 23 23 4? 6^
+
o
H
1
+
o O O O O
NA NA - NA NA
+
+
+
,
?
+
+
+
+
O " ^ " " l " " ^ " " ' " " ^ "
+
D
P
+
o
o
o o
+
-H
+
+
O
—
o
+
+
4~
+ « rising; o • unchanged; - » falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
Average for October 15, 16, and 17, 1963.
o
11 a
o
o o o o o o
N/\ NA NA - - +
+
+
§ 1-3-3 <;¥
»-o
1
6Q ?tf 58 67 46 50 46 65 35 46 50 73
o
+
c
0
1
i
o
+
Tin ( Ib . )
Zinc ( Ib . )
Burlap ( y d • ) . .
••
Cotton (Ib ) 15 market averape
Print cloth ( y d . ) average..
Wool tops ( Ib . )
8
a
Sep-Octi
ft -p
rH
1963
19(52
Aug-Sep
19 52
13 industrial materials components
3 -month spans
o
+
o
o
o
NA = Not available.
o
n
P
o
P
oo
c
a
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.--(D5) I n i t i a l Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
5-month spans
1-month spans
-H
<u
26 area components
S h
^H
rH
bO
CX
G
t—1
txO
-H>
n n o> o
^> < m o
i
i
i
i
<D
O N
£> .H
cd ra
1962
1963
1962
h C
cd cd
CX
>
o
2:
i
-t->
0
53,0
^
f-t
>i
C
iH
b D a - P
2 3 3 & 8 £
Percent rising
> 0
a; c d a ) a j p 4 c d ^ : J ^ a ) o o < u
p ' - o ^ S ^ S ' - T . ^ ^ a D O S Q
i
i
i
i
i
i
t
i
i
i
i
i
i
>
o c r Q ^ f H > 3 C r H b r ) a J - p >
c D a j O J c s i p L . a i ^ r ' ^ a i o o
Q ^ f e S < ^ S ^ ^ < C O O 2 :
68 57 45 47 72 28 36 87 48 45 49 71 47 55 36
47 labor market areas *
rH
^
^
1
,d
CD
fan
bfl
^
<J
1
f-t
^1
S
1963
C,CI
JH?-|
> j C r H h D P 4 - P >
0
CX -P
>
0
a j < U c d f t ^ I d ^ d < D O O a )
<U
0
O
<D
CO
0
2 Q^ f e S < ^ S ^ ^ < ^ W 0 2 : Q
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
b D P u - P > o a , 0 £ - i £ - , ! » C r H
^
>i
C
r-l
d d > O O < D C t 3 < D i j a i j X j 1^ ^
ft
.S]
^
^
<J
S ^
H^
^ a D O ^ Q ^ & H S - ^ S i - o
^
21 34 32 38 79 49 22 64 64 45 53 83 47 53 57
_ - . _ _ + -
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16
11
1
21
4
8
23
- + - - + + + _ + _ _
+ - + - + -
Buffalo*
New York
+ +
+ + - +
Philadelphia*
Pittsburgh**.
Providence**
+
+
+
-
—
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
-
+ + -+ + + +
- + _ _ + _ +
- + - -
+
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+ - +
++ - +
+
-
+
+
+
+
0
+
"
- + + - + + - ~ ~
- + - + - . + ~ +
»-t
^
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
18
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9
H-» '
o
+
+
+
+
-
- + + + - + -
Detroit
+
_
_
_
+
_
+
+
+
+ - - + + - + + - + - + +
Kansas City
Minneapolis
St . Louis
+ _ _
+ + +
_ +
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-H
+ - + + _ + + - +
+ - + -+ +
-- + + - _ + + --)-
+
_
_
+
_
_
+
-
+
3
>-»
o
-
+
+
+
-
+
_
-_
- + + + + -
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+ '+
I t
: : : : ! :. : t !
SOUTH REGION
20
12
17
Atlanta.
Baltimore
Dallas
+ +
+ _
+ - _
- +
+ _
- +
+ _
+ + +
- +
+ +
+
+ -++
+
--
+
WEST REGION
2
24
6
19
+
Portland
San Francisco
Seattle
•
• .
+ - + - -
. _ + _
+ +
_
+
_
+
-
_
_ + +
-
+
-
»
. + _ _ + _ - + -
I t + +
- •= rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) September 1963**Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in September 1963.
percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
s
o
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.--(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
3 -month spans
1-month spans
1963
1962
1963
1962
30 industry components
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments.
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products.
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
57 47 37 45 33 43
+
0
+
+
+
-
4-
+
0
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
63 48 83 67 8$ 62 75 50 42
4 - 4 -
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - G
+
0
4-
+
+
o
-
-
+
+
_
_
_
-
4-
+
+
+
+
0
+
_
_
-
_
+
+
4-
+
+
4-
-
+
-
-
0
4-
_
4-
-
-
4-
-
-
4-
- -
O
-
-
_
o
0
+
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
-
4-
43 53 65 72 83 78 75 58 67
+ 44 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
65 52 38 35 27
+
O
-
-
4-
+
-
+
+
+
4-
4-
+
+
4-
+
+
+
4-
+
4-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
4-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
-
+
O -
-
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
4-
-
-
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities.
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Services and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
0
+
+
44-
rt
^
O
O
+
O
+
+
_
+
+
O
-
+
4-
4-
+
O
C/3
-
-
O
O
+
4-
-
4-
+
4-
o
o
o
_
_
_
4-
-
-
_
_
o
+
+
+
4-
O
+
-
+
+
+
-
_
-
O
+
+
4-
-
+
o o
+
- o -
-
- o
- -
_
_
_
4-
+
o
O
4-
_
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
_
_
_
_
O
_
4-
-
-
-
4-
+
+
4-
4-
_
+
4-
+
+
4-
4-
-
T
O
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
_
_
_
4-
+
+
o
-
-
+
+
+
4-
g
4-
-
4 - 4 - 0
4 - 4 - 0
+
4-
4-
_
0
_
4-
_
_
-
4-
-
4-
+
+
4-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
4-
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
+
+
4-
+
4-
4 - 4 - 0
+
- +
- 4 - 4 -
Series components are seasonally adjusted "by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
O
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHAKGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.-(D47) Index of Industrial Production
3 -month spans
1-month spans
1962
rH
bD
^
1
C
^j
>-D
<t
1
r-l
^S
»-D
••j
"~i
ft
<u
1962
1963
24 industry components
-P
>
o
0
o
<y
C/3 0
ZZ
1 1 1
bD CX -P
'3 <j)
O
<! CO O
Q
1
>
,Q
Z
£[
1
0
(1)
£
1
C'
oj
S
1
,0
4)
•§*
1
?H
rjj
1?
1
JH
ft
C
*-*
1
>3
id
>-i
^
1
C
z)
S »-3
bo P^
< CO
1
1
rH
bO
D ^J
»-3
<
-P
8
1
ft
d)
co
54 58 79 29 54 42 67 69 73 62 88 75 65 65 52
+
o + -
+ -
>
"Z
1
-P
O
o
o
Q
1
>
O
2:
i—i
bo
A t
§S
4-
4-
-
4-
+
4-
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4"
4-
4-
_
4-
4-
4-
+
4 - 4 - 0
4-
4-
4-
-
-
+
+
4-
_
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
44-
4-
C ^ 3 ? H } H ^ s C i - l b f l P 4 - P > 0
ft
-P
>
0
C
i-H
bo
CX
ai 8i £i ai
-
1
P
1
>
O
1
C
1
r
Q
1
^
f
1
n
1
1
> s C
r
1
H
1
1
b O P
1
U
79 69 79 42 62 46 58 54 81 83 92 88 83 81 71
4-4-
4- ' 4-
1963
+
- + -
0
4-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - +
+ + _
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
DURABLE GOODS
: - 0+ : : :
Primary and fabricated metals
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinerv
P
rt
—
O
+
+
"~
4-
-
-
4-
+
^ 1 + H
4-
4-
4-
_
4>
Clay , glass , and lumber
Clay , glass , .and stone
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
+
-
+ - - -
4.
+
+
-
+
4-
4-
4+
44-
4_
-
4-
4-
_
+
44-
-
44-
44-
44-
44_
.... + +
4- 4- 4- 4- NA
_ +
4- 4- NA
4- +
- NA NA
4-
+
4-
+
+
4+
+
+
-
o
+
44-
+
4-
+
-
+
-
+
+
_
+
-
+
-
+
- 4 - +
-+0
- 4 - 4 + + +
+
+
+
+
+
+
44- + +
+
- - 4 - N &
_ _ 4 - 4 -
+
+
- - 4 - 4 + + + +
4+
+ 4 - 4 - 4 - N A
- 4 - 4 - 4 - N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
4-
4-
NONDURABLE GOODS
C/5
Textile mill products
Apparel products
+
4-
-
-
-
0
44-
44-
44-
......
Printing and publishing.
Chemicals , petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Metal mining
+
_
_ NA
+ o
0
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
- NA
+
-
4-
4-
_
4-
-
- NA NA
44-
4-
4-
-
44-
+
4-
-
4- % NA
-
4-
-
4-
+
-
-
4 - 4 - Q
4-
-
+
-
+ +
O
.
+
+
+
+ 4 -
4-
44-
4-
4-
+"
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- - - - - 4 - 4 - N A N A
+
44-
+
_
+
4-
44-
44-
44-
-
-
-
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
4+
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-4-
+
+
+
+
'0
+
_ _ 4 - 4 -
44-
4-
44-
-
4-
4-
+
4 - +
- 4 - +
4-
-4-
- 4 - + + N A N A
4-
Food and beverages
MINERALS
Coal.
Crude oil and natural gas
O
+
4-
-
+
+
+
-
....... . . • • . . <
-
-
-
-
+ 4
4- + - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
4-
4-
4-
-
+
4- NA
O
4-
4-
-
-
-
+ NA
4-
4-
- NA
--
+ 4-4-NA
+ 4 - 4 - 4 +
4+
+ + 4 - 4 - N A
+
- - - N A
4+
+
+ N A
4-
44-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
-
+
-
--
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - -N A
-+ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - NA
+
+
+ + -
+
-
+
+
+
H-
+
+
4- s rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA « not available.
1
The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
go
»-t
O
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.-(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
5-month spans
1-month spans
1963
1962
1963
1962
24 retail store components
rH
;3
*-*
1
;3
•-a
bD
ft
-P
;3 d) o
< CO O
I
1
1
3 3 (u
"-a <$ oft
>
o
rz;
1
o
0
rH
O
<p
Q
1
o
2
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
allfiltlllasl
83 75 65 40 88 67 50 54 52 42 52 75 67 71 21
hD
ft
-P
>
0
C , Q
jij
qj
^
ft
;3
^i
^
1
1
S > i C i H t l D f t - P
>
0
1
1
d qQ j Oo lo Sa Q)
te -b D< fu ej Ss i^ fS t ^^ ^^ ^d O
£ 5 $ 8 & S
1
J
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3%8£&£&&%£ZZ
81 79 71 54 96 96 81 79 81 56 46 58 62 76 44
All retail sales
+ + + +
+ + _ _ o + . + + - + + - - + + -o
- + -t- _ + - +
_ + - _ + + + + + + - + - + -
Grocery stores
Eating places
Variety stores
Other general stores.....
Men' s wear stores
Shoe stores
Furniture stores
Appliance and radio stores
Building material dealers
+
+
..
+ +
+ +
I
-
+ t
+ o
+
Q
+
__
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+ + + .
+
+
+ +
-
+ +
_
+
_
0
- +
+
+ _ _ _ _ + + +-
+ + - + - + + - -
+ - + -+- + + + - +
- - - + - +
_
+
_
0
_
+
+ +
.o - - + +
+ + + + ++
+ + + + + + + + -
+
+
0
+ +
+ . . + + . + +-* +
+
0
-
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+ 0
+ + + + +
+ -
+ - _ - + +
+ + - - + +
+ o + - + o
_
+ + + +
+ - - + +
-t- + + + +
+
+ -
+ - - + -
- + +
o + +
-f
+
+
+
+
+
+
-H
+ + + t t!
o + -
0 0
+
+
+
+
-
_
_
_
_
+
-
0 - + - - * - - - - - - + +
+
+
+ - + -
+
+
+
+
__
+
+ + +
- H _ 0 - - - - -
0
I—
s
o
C/5
Motor vehicle dealers •
+
+
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Other durable goods stores
+ = rising; o
mined.
unchanged; - = falling.
+
+ + + + --+ + + +
+
+
- + - + +-
-
+
-
+
+
+
0
+
-
o
+ +
+
o + -
+
* .*. ~ *. .."*".
+ -
+ + +
-_o
+ + + -
-
+
-
-
+
+
_+ + +_
Q
^
+
+
+
+
-
__
+ + + + +- + + +
+.
-V
+
+
+
+
+
0
-
+
+ + + + +
+
+
+ + _ _ + +
+ + _ - + _ _ + -
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
0
+ +
+
+ - - - H -
-f
0
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
0
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
-H
+
- h - f - h 4 -
+
+
*
+
+
+
H-4-
-
-H
_
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+ +
+
before the direction of change
is deter-
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
• Nov.
July
- July
1
May
1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I M ( 1 II t u I I I M I II M I II I I I II I I M M
Index
•<-Reference trough dates
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus
bldgs. 2
105,-
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24. Mfrs,1 new orders, /
mach. and equip. Indus.
• :
/• •
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M MI I I MI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I
-12
-6
0
-1-6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
Months from reference troughs
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
•Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "l"or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
^ee table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4B
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
• Nov.
July
• July
• May
Inde:
1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I I II I 1 I I I I
II I I I I I I I I I I ! II I I I I I 1M I I I I I I I I I I ! I i
|-<-Reference trough dates
150
140
13. New business incorporations
130
120
110
100
90<-
23. Industrial materials
prices
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
/V
J
80
80 L
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
50
CHART 4B
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Inde
I I I II I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I | I I I I I | I I I I I
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]
Reference trough dates
-no*
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
95L
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I M 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I M 111
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
*See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
51
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 4
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
- July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+36
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+36
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of 'Tor "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 41
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
........ July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
Reference trough dates
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans
64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
I I I I MMI I I I I I I MI I I I I I I I I I I MMI I I
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+36
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "Tor "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
Last 2 quarters anticipated.
Cyclical Patterns
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
I II I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
Index
110 r
1949
1954
1958
1961
Index
-<-Specific trough dates
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus.
bldgs. 3
I I I I I I I I I I III I I I II I M I I I I I I I I I M I I II I II I I |
•<-Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg
105
- 120
TOO*
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip, indus
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
I
-i!60
-150
100
*100
+1 2 + 1 8 + 2 4 + 3 0 + 3 6 + 4 2
Months from specific troughs
0
+ 6 + 1 2 + 1 8
+24 +30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2', the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
*See appendix B for specific dates.
$ee table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
54
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
1 1 i 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r i i i i I i M i 11 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PERIOD COVERED
-<-Specific trough dates
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
Inde:
1958
1961
MnTMTrm M U M urn mi i 111 rrri ri 11
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
-Specific trough dates
160
150
13. New business incorporations
140
130
120
110
*100
23. Industrial materials
prices
200
••
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
180
160
140
120
*100
+6
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1* or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
*See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1958
• 1954
1961
-{115
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]
- MO
-105
100
100*
i i i i i l i i i i i l i i i i i l i i ii l i n i i i l i i i i i l i m i l
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2*,the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
I II I I I M I II 11 I I I I I I I I I I I M I I 1
PERIOD COVERED
-<-Specific trough dates
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
1958
1961
I I II I I III I I II I I I III II M M I
-<-Specific trough dates
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
53. Labor income in minfng,
mfg., and construction
iiiiiliiiiiliiiiilii iiilninliiiiilnii
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series w
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is s
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specii
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1.
57
Cyclical Patterns
Table /.-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of "1" or "2" (series 1,
64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base.
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62,
For series with an MCD of "3" or more
centered on the reference peak month is
67) is the reference peak quarter. See
Months
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
after
beginning in—
referNov. Mar.
July
ence
July
June
Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb.
1933
trough1 1921
1924
1949
1938
1927
1954
1961
1958
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
95.8
29.9
20.3
91.8
38.9
48.4
70.6
56.4
59.3
98.7
128.0
113.0
98.8
80.1
87.5
98.5 101.5
95.5 .97.3
79.2 1H.3
31
31
173.8 124.8
208.3 125.6
57.5
45.0
55.0
46.5
216.4 140.6 124.5
89.9
202.5 127.5
103.5 120.9
104.7 133.0
30
40.0 105.4
70.4
23.0
214.7
97.2
97.7 104.2
94.1 52.3
96.2
73.6
NA
NA
157.6 165.3
76.5
81.5
70.1
218.9
22.1
NA
39.6
75.5
79.9
118.6
115.1
NA
64.9
92.7
107.7
123.5
88.1
97.6
155.2
93.4
31
30
2. Accession rate, manufacturing.
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing ( inverted )....... 30
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13.
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24.
Number of new business incorporations
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manuf acturers ' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
NA
46.7
H.5
101.5
104.9
122.2
141.1 109.5
1H.9
133.9
70.5
121.4
102.1
181.3
109.8
128.8
60.5
92.5
99.8
114.3
94.9
105.5
97.8
118.6
101.1
131.9
90.4
30
31
27
31
31
31
68.0
22.2
62.0
NA
100.5
62.3
31
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
145.3
139.6
112.0
123.1
31
NA
NA
NA.
NA
NA
NA
NA
103.2
131.1
31
31
31
30
30
31
31
31
87.6
NA
107.4
NA
NA
97.7
NA
109.4
95.6
NA
106.6
113.3
113.5
121.2
112.4
108.8
92.2
NA
96.2
105.1
110.5
107.5
102.8
94.6
85.0
NA
81.9
68.6
85.3
56.0
71.3
76.3
107.6
107.1
118.4
113.8
NA
111.6
113.7
116.9
107.6
118.1
119.0
128.4
117.5
131.2
125.9
122.8
105.4
68.2
109.1
118.9
109.8
129.2
119.6
116.8
101.9
67.3
103.1
112.0
106.4
119.1
113.8
107.6
105.3
93.3
1U.4
116.7
111.8
131.5
115.9
110.1
31
65.7
89.3
86.6
85.4
97.3
107.7
108.7 101.5
27
33
54.5
51.3
108.1
96.2
104.3
75.7
40.6 105.1
NA
47.8
121.6
115.2
129.8
131.8
31
30
30
82.2
NA
NA
91.5
NA
NA
90.9
NA
NA
81.7
75.6
78.5
30
88.1
91.5
103.2
59.8
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production.....
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
52 . Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
99.7
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
64. Manufacturers1 inventories, book value......
66. Consumer installment debt...
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities ( Q)
98.1 111.6
110.2 138.5
HO.l 179.8
98.5
95.1 104.8
89.7 113.4
98.6
106.3 102.5
116.3 100.6 107.3
144.8 128.5 125.5
133.0 117.4
103.3
93.6
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, and April 1958, the peak had been passed
and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference
peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 27 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 33 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1963).
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of "3" or
more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough*
quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
beginning in —
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
+4.8
+39.5
-34.6
-6.5
-46.8
-31.7
+4.7 +13.2
+2.3
+37.7 +43.2 +18.1
+60.5 +127.8 +82.2
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
31
30
30
+3.9
NA
NA
+1.8
+1.3
+10.4 +17.6
+35.4 +33.3
+3.0
-10.0
+30.2
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
31
31
+146.3 +11.4
+112.7 +26.8
30
+46.6
30
31
27
31
31
31
-6.1 +31.9
+31.4
+4.4
NA +78.6
NA
NA
+35.8 +51.3
+48.8
-2.8
+51.9
-42.5 +186.2 +260.0 +52.0 +33.9
-56.7 +208.3 +115.6 -11.5 -24.7
-18.9
+92.6 +334.9
-7.2
+0.4 -11.6
-43.1 +165.2 +60.7
0.0
NA +281.2
NA
NA
NA
+26.1 +91.3
+3.3
-21.6 +81.8 +36.9
+12.6
+45.7
+20.9
+9.3
+31.2
+33.4
+39.3
+23.4
+3.1 +13.4 +34.9 +13.5
0.0
+5.2 -26.0 -19.6
+12.7 +42.5 +22.2 +39.6
-1.2
+3.0
+4.0
+5.5
+49.3 +43.3 +31.0 +17.2
-5.2
+9.2
+9.8
+24.4
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin31
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+65.3
+46.3
+33.6
+28.3
31
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-23.7
+1.5
+35.2
+27.1 +10.0
NA
NA
+57.2 +29.8
+28.7 +15.9
+27.7 +13.9
+26.0 +25.1
+32.5 +12.9
+8.8
+16.7
-4.0
NA
+2.2
+4.6
+8.0
-1.1
+0.4
-5.4
+24.3
+45.3
+69.8
+36.1
+18.4
+46.8
+44.9
+45.0
+20.0
+90.7
+73.4
+29.2
NA
+33.7
+27.7
+43.4
+13.4
+141.0
+30.0
+32.8
+19.2
+36.6
+31.6
+22.8
+6.2
+9.1
+54.5 +19.4
+19.9 +20.0
+21.1 +14.8
+13.1 +10.6
+27.2 +23.0
+19.9 +14.2
+17.6
+9.3
+7.3
+26.7
+21.6
+17.6
+13.9
+28.4
+15.1
+12.3
-6.9
+17.4
+2.8
+13.4
+2.0
-0.2
+18.8 +136.8
-13.9 +178.6
+76.1
NA
+51.9 +35.8 +18.4
+44.0 +38.0 +11.6
+12.4
+21.6
29. Index of new private housing units author -
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
31
31
31
30
30
31
31
31
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
31
+4.3
-2.3
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
27
33
+58.9
+49.5
+54.9
+37.9
64. Manufacturers1 inventories, book value......
31
30
30
-8.6
NA
NA
-11.0
NA
NA
-7.7
NA
NA
+11.4
+27.7
+64.3
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
30
-18.3
+4.3
+7.2
-23.2
+9.5
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
-5.5 +16.0
+16.5 +51.4
+50.2 +44.9
+0.9
+32.5
+4.1
+23.3
+40.1
-3.1
-3.5
+5.6 +10.1
+27.4 +21.5
+23.0 +19.7
+0.8
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, and April 1958, the peak had been passed
and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the'first column. See appendix A for the reference
peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 27 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 33 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1963).
59
Cyclical Patterns
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, and
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of "3" or more
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter.
See also MOD footnote
to appendix C.
Selected series
NBER LEADING
Months
after
specific
trough1
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
33
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations. ......
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
27
31
31
35
33
NA
*97.8 *100.0
*45.2 *114.6 *108.2
*86.3 *106.8
NA
NA
NA
NSC
*99.2 141.3
*71.3 *100.8 *76.6
mo. 5
66.5
94.6
NSC
*99.8
100.0
*99.0
3
NSC
17.7 192.9 41.4
95.5 117.6
NSC *138.1
61.6
98.3
*70.4 50.0
NA
NA *107.2 *90.3 *101.0 98.4
31.2
54.9 141.1 *186. 3 *122.5 121.9
66.5 .91.0 *135.1 *65.1 *92.9 88.9
35
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA *211.9 *103.7
33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
*91.3 *96.6 *105.6
85.0
NA
74.3
68.6
80.0
73.0
62.5
74.4
107.1
89.5
116.5
108.3
NA
114.2
119.9
108.5
NA
NA
mo. 2
122.3
*96.5
101.4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 . Sales of retail stores
31
28
32
30
30
33
31
29
NA
NA
NA
*112.3 *108.2 *116.2
NSC
NSC
NA
NSC
NSC
NA
NA *111.1 *112.9
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
97.1
107.5 *105.4 *103.0 104.9
112.7
61.3 *78.0
89.4
116.1 108.8 *109.0 112.5
127.2 116.6 *112.4 116.7
116.7 108.7 *107.6 111.8
125.2 117.7 113.5 3115.1
129.3 115.1 *108.3 112.1
NSC 109.6 *109.4 108.7
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
33
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
27
31
31
35
33
*+15.4
*+7.9
*+4.5
-1.6
+13.5
+5.2
*+4.1
*+5.2
+5.7
3
NSC +39.6 +26.4
fr+118.4*+82.6 *+40.1 +83.4 +324.7 +32.8
NSC *+51.7 +15.0
+4.2
*+23.6 *+42.9 *+2Q . 5*+12.8 -37.4
+3.0
NA
NA
NA *+15.2 *+6.8 *+9.4
NA
NA
NSC +104.4 +0.6 +69.9 H-109.6 *48.1 +35.6
*+46.2 +65.9
-2.8
*+75.0 *+36.7 *+7.3 +78.9 +40.8 *KL00.3 *+24.7 *KL7.4
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
35
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA H-181.2 *+73.8 *+48.6
33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
*+32.6 *+12.0 *+11.5
NA
NA
NA
*+66.1 *+31.7 *+24.9
NSC
NSC
NA
NSC
NSC
NA
*+32.8 *+15.3 *+15.9
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
+13.8
+24.3
+39.0
+59.4
+36.1
+18.7
+48.4
+75.7
+45.0
+20.0
+63.1
+75.2
+29.2
NA
+30.7
+64.0
+34.3
+13.4
+140.2
+28.9
+31.9
+19.5
+32.0
+47.9
NSC
+31.5
NA *+56.3
+36.0
*+7.6
*+50.4
*+27.2
*+l6.4
*+12.5
+14.9
*+17.6
*+13.7
+7.3
+28.1
+21.7
+17.6
+13.9
3
+15.7
+18.1
+13.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
31
28
32
30
30
33
31
29
*+9.1
+44.3
+20.9
+19.8
+12.8
+19.2
+24.6
+15.2
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
*Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month
indicated in the first column.
The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered is
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. 1). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
1
Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to
the latest month shown in table 1.
The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an
asterisk. Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 1 and the high
preceding that low.
Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October i860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
xxx
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
IF
34
36
xxx
48
30
78
36
99
xxx
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
1
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
14
13
43
13
j*
11
27
21
50
80
37
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
July 1957
April 1958
February 1961
May I960
13
9
9
35
25
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
40
54
50
52
101
48
34
44
34
2
54
3
46
5
48
41
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
4
*25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.--SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mir.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Dec. '60
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorporat ions
Jan. '61
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Feb. '61
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....Dec. '60
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Oct. '60
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Dec. '60
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculFeb. '61
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. '61
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
IstQ' 61
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
lstQ'61
NSC
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
Feb. '61
Apr. '61
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jun.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.'24 Feb. '21
Jun.'58
NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar. '21
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
Feb. '49
NSC
Dec. '53 May '49
Sep. '53 Jun.'49
Feb . ' 54Jun.'49
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun.'38
Dec. '34
NA
Jun.'32
Jul.'32
Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun.'24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun.'24
Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul.'21
Feb. '58 Jan. '54 Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb . ' 58NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Mar. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
IstQ' 33'
3rd Q' 32
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC
4thQ'26
Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 24
Jul.'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ'21
NA
2ndQ'21
NA
NSC
NA
NSC
NA
Mar. '22
NA
NA
May '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38
Jul.'58 Sep. '54 Oct . ' 49Jun.'38
Apr. '58 Apr . ' 54Oct. '49 May '38
IstQ1 58 2ndQ' 54 2nd Q' 49 2nd Q1 38
IstQ' 58 2ndQ'54 2nd Q' 49 IstQ' 38
Feb . ' 58Mar. '54 Oct. '49 May '38
Apr. '58 Aug . ' 54Oct. '49 Jun.'38 Mar. '33
mr.'58 Jan. '54 NSC
May '38 Mar. '33
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers , manufacturing
Apr. '59
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorpoApr. '59
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Nov. '59
24 . Value of mfrs . ' new orders , machinery and equipment industries . .Dec. '59
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculApr. '60
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb.1 60
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. ' 60
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
2nd Q' 60
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2ndQ'60
NSC
53. Labor income in mining, manufacMay '60
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60
NA not available.
NSC
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
Nov. '55 Apr. '53
NSC
Mar. '56
Mar . ' 46Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
NSC
Feb . ' 56NSC
Jul.'46
Dec. '55 Feb. '51 Jan. '48
Jul.'56 Jan. '53 Jun.'48
Dec. '55 Feb , ' 51 Jan. '48
Dec. '36
Oct. '29 Nov. '25
Dec. '36 Jan. '29
NA
NA
Feb . ' 37Sep. '29
Mar. '37 Mar. '29
Nov. '22
NA
Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr . ' 23 Dec. '19
NA
NA
mr.'23 Jul.'19
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Nbv . ' 56Feb . ' 51Apr. '48 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb . ' 55NA
Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ'57
3rd Q1 57
Aug. '57
Jul.'53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ' 53
2ndQ' 53
Oct. '53
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ' 48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48
Jul.'37
Jul.'37
May '37
3rdQ'37
3rd Q' 37
Jun.'37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
3rd Q' 29
Aug. '29
Jan. ' 26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Jun.'23
NA
May '23
NSC
NSC
IstQ' 24
Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
Jul.'20
Jul.'57 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Aug. '57 Mar. ' 53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Appendixes
63
Appendix C.--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
T/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
.49
2 • Access ion rate, manufacturing
4.92
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries.... 1.82
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
9.52
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
17.76
5. Average weekly initial claims fur unemployment insurance, State programs
5.29
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
3.83
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
4.55
.42
4.69
1.29
8.05
.21
1.72
1.18
4.02
2.00
2.73
1.09
2.00
2
3
2
3
.95
.89
.59
.70
2.15
1.85
2.27
2.21
1.65
1.54
1.63
1.73
10.58
9.00
9.77
8.40
4.06
5.64
5.25
5.39
17.12
3.99
4.29
5
.89
1.63
1.44
6.35
3.08
4.62
2.49
1.86
2
.86
1,72
1.51
9.77
3.94
3.39
1.59
2.13
3
.63
2.23
1.61
9.77
4.03
4.22
1.50
2.81
3
.81
1.59
1.40
11.55
3.68
9.66
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. 4.57
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.... 7.34
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits.
3.82
13. Number of new business incorporations
2.68
9.43
4.28
7.31
1.67
1.44
1.14
5.65
2.97
6.41
6
3
6
C1)
.86
C1)
1.70
1.58
1.53
1.54
1.43
1.53
6.63
11.45
6.13
3.03
3.35
2.32
3.39
2.36
1.48
1.10
2.29
2.15
3
3
.68
.77
1.89
2.10
1.53
1.70
14.38
6.30
3.32
3.02
16.86
16.36
2.52
6.49
6
1.48
1.32
5.77
2.26
2.11
.33
1.67
6.07
1.70
1.11
6
2
2
.94
.68
1.53
2.23
2.35
1.37
1.74
1.67
9.77
7.47
12.70
5.30
3.60
3.94
9. Construction contracts awarded for commer-
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100 000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
13.09 12.81
.69
.56
1.86
2.65
C1)
C1)
6.81
5.29
3.10
1.71
3
.66
2.54
1.76
10.58
4.63
5.81
5.32
2.14
2.49
3
.76
1.87
-1.63
12.70
3.91
7.68
1.32
5.54
1.04
4.73
.74
1.17
1.41
2
2
.79
.95
3.53
2.44
2.12
2.05
9.77
11.55
4.20
4.06
.30
.15
.25
.60
1
.60
5.29
2.05
14.11
5.29
.35
4.14
5.50
.29
2.98
4.46
.19
2.45
2.96
1.53
1.22
1.51
2
2
2
.76
.65
.70
1.98
2.40
2.10
1.55
1.65
1.34
14.11
7.47
9.36
3.23
3.41
3.78
4.82
2.56
3.56
.72
1
.72
3.74
2.12
9.07
3.74
3.38
2.21
2.38
.93
1
.93
2.27
1.41
9.07
2.27
1.09
1.48
.49
.58
1.44
.27
.79
.60
.41
.73
2.40
.66
1
3
1
.73
.54
.66
3.53
1.69
3.43
2.05
1.53
1.84
9.77
18.14
18.14
3.53
4.31
3.43
.81
.78
.53
.63
.61
.44
.87
1.43
1
2
.87
.85
3.43
2.53
1.90
1.80
11.55
9.54
3.43
3.62
.17
.10
.13
.77
1
.77
3.53
2.65
11.55
3.53
.65
.48
.36
1.33
2
.72
2.27
1.55
9.07
4.34
.60
.24
.54
.44
1
.44
7.41
2.38
12.60
7.41
.62
.83
.34
.17
.55
.78
.62
.22
1
1
.62
.22
7.41
11.45
2.80
2.29
15.75
18.00
7.41
11.45
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor
43 . Unemployment rate , total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
54. Sales or retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories,
all manufacturing industries
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing indus
See footnotes at end of table.
Appendixes
64
Appendix C-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
, QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
T/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices
.15
5.68
5.37
.10
5.59
5.20
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
4.59
4.39
87. General imports total
3.61
3.47
94. Index of construction contracts, total value. 7.03
6.69
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement.. 26.87 26.37
91. Defense Department obligations, total
14.78
15.12
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S.
26.25 26.21
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
1.36
goods indus tries
.46
.13
.82
.95
.77
6.82
5.47
1
6
6
.77
C1)
C1)
6.00
1.51
1.74
2.25
1.41
1.57
25.20
8.47
7.47
6.00
2.18
2.60
1.11
.97
1.69
4.09
2.70
3.95
3.58
3.96
6.45
5.47
4
4
5
6
6
.96
.85
.84
C1)
C1)
1.77
1.59
1.52
1.51
1.47
1.66
1.51
1.45
1.46
1.43
7.06
7.53
7.88
5.93
6.61
2.75
2.97
3.59
2.27
2.48
6.12
4.28
6
C1)
1.58
1.47
5.95
2.86
1.23
.37
1
.37
6.05
2.15
14.11
6.05
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
.89
.81
.72
.93
.89
.64
.72
3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
6.89
2.40
1.87
2.12
2.14
2.08
1.82
2.30
31.25
8.93
15.63
18.00
25.00
31.00
17.71
7.75
5.59
8.27
5.43
11.27
6.42
6.89
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. OECD European countries, index of indus. prod.. .86
122. United Kingdom index of indus. prod
1.14
123 . Canada, index of indus . prod
.90
125. West Germany, index of indus. prod
1.42
1.36
127. Italy, index of indus . prod
1.44
128. Japan, index of indus. prod
1.62
.83
1.09
.77
1.18
1.20
1.41
.93
.50
.47
.52
.69
.68
.74
1.30
1.66
2.32
1.48
1.71
1.76
1.91
.72
I
C
i/c
i/c
Quarterly series
CI
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income
originating, corporate, all industries
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
5.78
3.73
4.17
.89
1
.89
2.89
1.49
5.50
2.89
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4-9. Gross national product in current dollars....
57. Final sales (series 4-9 minus 21)
1.44
1.88
1.60
.65
.69
.82
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
3.61
1.49
2.94
.51
1
.51
4.64
1.55
5.67
4.64
.60
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2.68
2.96
1.94
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
6.27
1.26
5.79
.22
1
.22
4.38
1.94
5.83
4.38
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
63. Index* of labor cost per unit of output,
total gross national product
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
1.02
NOTE: Measures for monthly series are computed for the
period, January 1953 to mid-1963, except for series 7, 86,
and 87; for series 7, the period begins with May 1959 and
for series 86 and 87, the period ends with June 1962.
^•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures
shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal
of Business, October 1957).
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series. "P is the same for the irregular .component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the
same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans.
Averages,
without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes
Appendixes
65
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C—Continued
>ver each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months for
fhich the average percentage change (without regard to
sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted
series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular
movements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater
than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are
shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of
the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in
quarters) for which the average percentage change (without
regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in
the irregular component, and remains so.
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve.
The MCD curve is a moving average
(with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness
(small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1month spans_and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD
is "6", no I/Cjratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series
of observations. When there is no change between 2 months,
a change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed.
The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5.
The actual value of ADR falls between
1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month
intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series,
the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.58 for series 10, Contracts and Orders for Plant
and Equipment. This indicates that 1-month changes in the
seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign
about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR
measures shown in the next two columns, 1.43 for I and
11.45 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series
has been successfully separated into an essentially random
component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally,
ADR is 3.35 for the MCD moving average. This indicates
that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 3 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.58 for CI to 3.35 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the
MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclicaltrend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR~NBER
(NOVEMBER 1962 TO DECEMBER 1963)
19 62
19>63
Series
Nov.
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
13. No. of new business incorp.1
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures.
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over...
Dec.
Jan.
83.4 102.6 121.0
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
116.2
97.5
82.2
92.2
83.8
99.9 140.7
104.8 132.5 140.7 109.1
86.8 94.3 120.0
91.0
99.9 89.9 105.1 105.2
96.0
88.6 111.3 113.6
97.3 94.3 82.7
104.2 106.8 106.7
107.5 112.3
96.7
116.8 110.4
Aug.
82.6 103.0
85.5
96.8 103.5 93.8
96.4 84.7 111.7
Sept, Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
89.7
81.9
102.7
88.4
77.7 90.9 105.0 132 » 5
82.5 94.3
88.3 101.4
92.8 97.4 100.2
89.3
89.6
94.9 105.5
89.3
95.9
98.1 98.6 100.6 100.9 100.5 100.0 101.0
95.4
99.3 101.8
88.7
96.0
88.5
103.4
101.2
98.1
17. Price per unit of labor cost
101.1
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
of sales, all mfg. corp.2
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus.1.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
output , total manufacturing
98.8
95.3
80.4
83.1
96.2
98.8
109.0
108.5
103.3
106.1
110.5 106.3
110.6 109.4
102.1 96.1
89.1
99.9 100.0
100.2 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.0
98.8 101.7
101.9
Index of consumer prices
100.1
Federal cash payments to public.. 104.8
Federal cash receipts from pub... 102.3
Defense Department obligations —
96.0
91. Defense Dept. oblig. total...... 90.7
92. Military prime contract awards
72.9
to U.S. business firms
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99.6
duction
81.
82.
83.
90.
97.9
75.9
99.7
99.5
99.8 100.0
105.7
97.4
113.5 119.6
116.4
98.8
94.0
82.7
98.9
93.9
91.6
91.9
92.5
96.1
99.9
99.8
99.9
99.8
99.9 100.0
98.9 104.7
100.4
98.2
96.5
98.8 101.7
99.9
100.0
98.3
105.1
99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0
99.8 99.9 99.9 100.0
99.8 99.9 100.0
98.3
95.6 114.4
93.8 102.8 105.2
90.8 98.9 92.3 98.9 103.2 106.0
79.0 119.3 149.5 49.0 113.3 124.4
46.0 102.8 105.1
70.0 113.1 129.6
117.4
105.0
76.9
90.6
91.6 132.2
90.0 117.7
81.2
96.4
69.2 192.7 77.9
96.7
84.7 148.2
78.1
86.7
97.1 89.2
97.2 95.4
96.0 117.4
90.7 105.0
108.5
89.5
79.7 125.3
93.2
92.8 216.4
68.0
72.9
92.7
90.4
72.9 108.5
103.2
94.3 100.3 109.1 99.4 100.2
98.8
96.5
98.6
99.8
99.6 103.2
100.4
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
•'•Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
Appendixes
66
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designations.
Therefore, when appendixes are dropped from an issue, the continuity
is interrupted.
"Appendix E.-Summary Description of X-9and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program" and "Appendix F . —
Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion
Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 To 1961", not included in this issue,
appeared in the September 1963 issue.
Appendix G.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Series are in one of the following categories:
(l) Those that are new to the report, (2) those that have been revised
historically, and (3) those for which historical data have not previously been shown. See table 1 for later data.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (Thousands)*
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952.......
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
472
393
371
569
547
563
425
482
510
505
419
484
518
466
380
388
574
527
580
426
481
503
508
409
493
519
458
362
404
572
526
569
421
'492
514
498
395
511
501
463
373
420
557
550
548
425
490
517
485
401
517
512
458
372
441
553
537
548
419
500
514
486
409
521
490
470
367
/53
546
538
551
420
46!
361
477
557
521
541
427
434
379
527
539
530
520
422
445
380
515
532
544
497
432
496
511
489
415
516
481
503
494
492
, 421
521
475
520
498
473
434
508
472
515
502
466
440
508
• 476
432
370
530
523
554
482
433
521
506
459
445
499
471
447
369
545
528
556
464
446
523
502
441
460
509
453
403
380
520
532
555
447
463
520
502
°9
<*76
508
459
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (Annual rate, billions of dollars)*
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959..
I960
55.3
57.2
54.2
68.7
75.0
84.0
82.2
54.9
56.4
53.5
69.9
76.1
84.9
82.2
83.5
92.9
99.0
95.3
100.3
108.7
84.4
93.0
99.6
93.1
101.3
108.5
55.1
54.7
55.4
70.9
76.2
85.8
81.5
85.7
93.6
99.7
92.7
103.3
107.9
55.6
55.0
56.8
72.1
75.8
86.1
81.0
87.0
95.6
99.8
92.5
105.0
108.3
56.8
54.7
58.6
. 72.2
76.0
86.0
81.1
88.6
95.4
99.9
92.9
106.1
108.8
57.7
53.6
60.3
72.8
75.5
86.4
81.1
88.8
96.0
100.5
94.1
107.1
108.4
58.3
53.2
61.2
72.4
72.8
86.6
80.2
58.7
53.3
63.4
72.3
77.6
86.2
80.0
58.8
53.2
64.5
72.8
80.1
85.3
80.2
58.5
51.4
66.3
72.6
81.1
85.1
81.0
89.5
94.2
100.5
94.6
106.6
108.3
89.5
96.4
100.4
95.2
103.6
107.6
90.3
97.4
99.7
96.6
103.7
107.0
91.3
98.5
98.9
96.0
102.9
106.9
58.5
52.3
66.8
73.2
82.5
84.0
82.5
92.6
98.8
98.3
99.0
104.3
105.5
58.2
53.9
68.1
74.8
83.8
83.6
83.1
92.9
100.2
97.2
99.3
107.7
103.7
54. Sales of retail stores (Millions of dollars)*
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953.
1954
10,883
10,949
11,339
13,885
13,030
14,352
13,712
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
14,765
15,495
16,329
16,659
17,613
18,097
10,866
11,099
11,589
13,716
13,274
14,325
14,055
14,896
15,370
16,635
16,374
17,752
18,200
11,021
11,191
11,674
13,021
12,890
14,418
14,020
11,210
11,290
11,716
12,735
13,208
14,218
13,991
10,906
11,223
11,916
12,840
13,708
14,167
13,957
11,173
11,217
12,345
12,792
13,885
14,H6
14,272
11,257
10,993
13,300
12,651
13,512
14,090
13,991
11,331
11,106
13,349
12,936
13,212
14,017
13,996
11,230
11,263
12,694
12,855
13,430
14,007
14,073
11,240
Il,l6o
12,358
13,094
14,047
14,060
14,081
11,159
11,221
12,069
13,099
13,891
13,855
14,406
11,404
11,052
12,959
12,924
14,266
13,719
14,671
15,005
15,663
16,453
16,319
17,858
18,178
15,255
15,516
16,493
16,535
17,827
18,557
15,260
15,771
16,534
16,517
17,995
18,320
15,126
15,797
16,820
16,476
18,134
18,312
15,404
15,744
16,799
16,746
18,154
18,113
15,418
15,826
16,967
16,853
18,249
18,195
15,677
15,906
16,841
16,745
18,121
18,207
15,715
15,933
16,782
16,662
18,209
18,298
15,652
16,106
16,699
17,048
17,680
18,080
15,531
16,193
16,647
17,605
17,692
18,008
*Data are seasonally adjusted.
67
Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
number1
1
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
1
2
3....
/
c.
6....
7
9....
10
7
11
12
7
3
13....
14. ...
i%
16....
8
8
g
9
17....
9
9
18
19. . . . 9
10
20
21
22
2
•-
••
••
••
3
;:
•
••
4
5
l
2
3
4
48
53
20
20
20
20
30
30
30
30
••
; ;
20
30
20
21
21
30
30
30
48
49
53
54
;
49
54
••
49
54
10
9
10
24. . . . 7
49
48
23....
54
53
21
30
21
21
30
30
22
22
22
22
30
30
30
30
22
22
22
23
30
30
30
30
22
22
30
30
23
20
30
30
pc
10
23
30
26
10
23
30
21
20
30
30
30
30
30
7
5
29....
on
01
00
•37
10
10
10
••
**
/o
41....
/o
11
43....
11 • •
/£
11
11
11
47....
49. ...
12
12
50....
51....
52....
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
CO
54....
55....
C.7
61....
62....
63
64....
AC,
Dp. . .
66. ...
67....
48
53
23
23
23
**
24
•• i
11
/6
**
50
••
50
55
55
51
51
51
51
..
50
. . 50
55
56
24
25
56
24
25
25
25
56
56
55
14
14
• • ::
52
52
••
14
•• ••
52
••
••
52
••
.
14
14
17
16
00
16
o/
04.
• • • iA
81
82
Or
op.
. . .1 7
86
87
&&
1 c,
15
1 c.
J-P
c
ftQ
oV. . . .-i-Lp
QO
16
Ql
16
24
2L
24
24
2L
••
**
**
••
••
*•
**
**
••
*•
*•
*•
••
**
*•
**
**
**
**
••
**
**
**
**
•*
*•
30
30
30
30
30
31
31
31
25
25
25
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
28
31
31
31
27
27
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
28
5
••
••
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
••
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
••
62
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
••
••
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
••
62
D
E
F2
••
••
•
65
65
66 (7-'63)
66 (7-»63)
-•
••
t
-
••
57
57
58
58
57
58
59
62
t,
,.
57
58
59
. . 62
-•
••
57
58
59
62
-•
57
57
-•
63 '65
63 65
63 65 64
••
63
6/,
63
66 (8-'63)
••
••
68 (6- '63)
65
65
••
66 (8-»63)
58
58
59
59
••
62
62
6/,
63
63
**
**
66 (7-'63)
••
66 (8-' 63)
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
..
..
••
58
59
••
62
••
62
59
••
62
58
58
59
59
••
62
62
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
62
62
62
..
57
57
58
58
59
59
59
••
57
58
59
••
57
58
57
57
..
62
..
19
f
,
57
57
58
58
••
t
••
••
••
57
58
••
••
••
••
57
57
58
58
••
••
••
••
••
57
••
..
••
63
63
63
65
66 (!0-'63)
(S3
63
65
68 (6-' 63)
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
63
63
63
63
6/,
64
63
6/(
63
63
63
64
64
64
6/,
••
••
68
••
••
68
••
••
68
68
••
••
••
68
68
68
68
65
••
65
••
66 (!0-'63)
66 (lO-»63)
-•
••
••
68 (6-' 63)
••
••
::
::
65
65
65
31
31
6/(
64
31
31
31
31
31
64
6/,
31
65
65
.
^•See back cover for series titles and sources.
Page number shown is for the September 1963 issue.
Date in parentheses indicates issue in which data are shown.
G3
63
64
2
3
J^ppenclixes
1Cables3
Charts3
t
Index
68
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES.-Continued
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
number1
Charts
1
92....
93....
94. ...
95....
96....
97....
98....
16
17
17
16
17
17
17
121...
122. . .
123...
125...
126. . .
127...
128. . .
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
2
3
4
••
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
D35...
D36. . .
D41...
D47...
D48...
D54. . .
D58...
D61...
35
35
34
34
• • 35
34
34
35
5
••
••
Dl
D5....
D6....
Dll...
D19. . .
D23...
D33...
D34. • .
1
2
28
28
28
27
28
28
28
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
E
F
64
65
••
••
64
••
••
••
64
64
••
..
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
See back cover for series titles and sources.
Appendixes
Tables
36
37
36
36
37
37
36
37
••
..
G
••
••
••
65
40
44
41
42
43
••
39
39
38
38
45
46
39
38.
38
47
39
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ). —Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).— Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
materials (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits(after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all
industries (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, from special tabulations of the Office of Business
Economics
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).--Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M). —
National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). —Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).—Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).— Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).—Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE, S3OO
(GPO)
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).--Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).—Treasury Depart-
ment, Bureau of- Accounts, and Executive Office or the
President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census dp not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of
differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).-Treasury Department, Bu-
reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal ReSystem
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—Depart-
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).—National
Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).--Organtion for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Organ-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).--Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
126. France, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127.
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).--Purchasing Agents Association
of Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings)
D35.
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
D36.
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge
D48.
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).--De-
D58.
Corporation
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries( EOM).-
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).--The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).--See series47.
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M). —De-
Italy, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Net soles, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
New orders, durable manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
Freight carloadings (Q).—Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER