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OCTOBER 1962

Business
Cycle
Developments




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Business

Cycle

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary

Developments
OCTOBER

1962

DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scommon, Director

A. Ross ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, JR., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L. KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L. DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
A. W. VON STRUVE, Public Information Officer
Offtc* of th« CfcUf Economic Statistician

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CONTENTS
Page
Important Features and Changes for This Issue

^

Introduction
Organization and Content of the Repor^
Descriptions and Procedures
How to Read the Time Series Charts

,..

L
»

ii
1
1
1
4

Basic Data

Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
„
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
v
Table 1. —Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: Januairy 1959 to Pre'sent

5
10
13
14
17
19

,

Analytical Measures

Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series . Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared
With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peak|s
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes—Actual and Anticipated: ll948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic Activities: January 1959
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, fqr 4 Manufacturing Activities: January
1959 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Oyer Specified Time Spans and Percent of
Series Rising: January I960 to Present:
A. (Dl) Average Workweek of Production Worker a , Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
E. (D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagriculturall Establishments
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
,
; .. .
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
,

29
31
32
33
34
35
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Cyclical Patterns

Chart 4.—Comparisons of References Cycle Patterns...,
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns . ..
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Pea}* Levels as Measulred at Designated Months After the
Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of "Specific" Peak Levels and Percent Change from "Specific" Trough
Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most
Recent Expansions
1

47
52
56
57
58

Appendixe$

Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in
the United States: 1854 to 1961.
*
Appendix B. — "Specific" Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Appendix C . —Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for 53 Monthly and 10
Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors fdr Business Cycle Series Adjusted by
Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1961 to December 1962) .',...
Appendix F,—Percent Change for Selected Series Oveir Contraction and Expansion Periods of
Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 .,.
„

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-

60
6l
62
65
66

Price 40 cents

IMPORTANT FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of
business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize
the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve
additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other
series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in
this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows:

There are no significant changes for this issue.

BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration with the
National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for much of the early research in this field. The book, "Signals of Recession and Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful ;Ln interpreting current cyclical trends, a more
detailed description of the indicators and measures used, and additional historical data.
This book was issued as Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261 Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . ( 2 0 7 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators, appear
in this book.

11




Business Cycle Developments
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis.
The presentation and classification ,of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement Other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for about the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the 'basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the 4ata shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THE REPORT
Three types of data are
They are as follows:

shown in this report.

Basic data (chart 1 and table 1). —Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.




Anjalytical measures (charts 2- 3 and tables 2-6). —
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( 1 ) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, ( 2 ) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and ( 3 ) the extent <pf current changes in different parts of the
ecpnqmy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places,
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways de pendijng upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
DESCRIPTIONS AND PROCEDURES
Business Cycle Series
Tfrie three major groups of series are those with
a faiirly consistent timing relation to the business
cyclfc . They are grouped, in accordance with the
NBEfR classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident!/1 or "lagging" indicators. Additional series
are also included for a more complete coverage of
the Rational economy. The series are described as
follows:
Leading Indicators. — Around 30 series
u s u l l y reach peaks or troughs before those in, aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below).
For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
IjIBER Roughly Coincident Indicators. —About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
actitvity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production or retail sales.
For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
Lagging Indicators. — Some series, such
as iew plant and equipment expenditures and manu1
f a c t u r e r s inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
ecofnomic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series. — About 20 additional U.S. series
witji business cycle significance are also shown.
Some of these series, such as change in money supply), merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus
or [deficit, represent important factors in the economjy, but they have not qualified as indicators for
various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several
countries which have important trade relations with
thq United States are presented.

1

Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal Adjustments

Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4«, Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
25. Change in manufacturers 1 unfilled orders,
durable goods industries
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
125. West Germany, index of industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER, The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted,
for the series mentioned above whenever they are
published.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points

The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical higher low levels. As a matter
of genercil practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Charts

Time series line charts (charts 1-3) are used to
show the cyclical timing and pattern of each series.
Since various ratio and arithmetic scales are used,
rates of change are not comparable except for those
series having the same scale. Seethe diagrcim,
page 4, for additional help in using the charts.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of
business cycle contraction between reference dates
for peaks ("P"—beginnings of shaded areas) and
troughs ("T"—ends of shaded areas). The shading




for a recession period will be entered only after a
trough has been designated.
Analytical Measures of Current Change

Four kinds of analytical measures are presented-^-rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.—There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervalsof time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how wide spread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, e t c . ) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the 3*month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Se rie s numbe r s pre ceded by the le tte r "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators (Dl, D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,

Descriptions and Procedures
a n d D 5 8 ) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator ( D 5 8 ) ^ comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two
indexes on capital appropriations ( 6 0 2 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits (200 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports ( 7 0 0 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers' sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 indust r i e s ) , based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence f o r a prospective business cycle turning point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed
which shows the number of series reaching high
values during each month of the expansion.
The
timing distribution is summarized by showing the
number of series reaching new highs and the percent
currently high for each of several recent months
(see table 3 ) . Similar distributions of "lows" will
be prepared during contractions .
To provide historical perspective for interpreting
the distribution of current highs, such distributions
are also shown for leading and coincident ( series as
they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak
of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions
and at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions .)
If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken
as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic
values are disregarded, although it is, of course,
difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for
the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 1) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to




identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaksf. Thus, as new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead.
On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of
a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
madef in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may .be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short,, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coinerdent series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but i[t may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Djirectiori-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the componetnts used for the diffusion indexes. These tables
provdde a convenient view of changing business conditiqns and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly
aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show
which economic activities went up, which went
dowji, and how long such movements have persisted.
They also help to show how a recession or recovery
spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the (behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indetxes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans f r o m
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
chainges from the immediately preceding peak level SL In this report the current expansion is related
to tjhe May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyorld its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
frojm reference peak levels and from reference
troiugh dates. Although the spans from reference
trqugh dates are the same for each expansion, the

Descriptions and Procedures
spans from the preceding peak dates are different,
depending on the length of the contractions. This
type of comparison answers the question whether,
and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding
business cycle peak, a given number of months after
the recovery began, and how the current situation
compares in this respect with earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates . This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level BO many months after the up swing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of ££®£ifip peak and trough dates identified for each
scries . For example, the specific peak in retail
sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak
is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is
July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal to

100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of thebiisiness cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is'
frequently necessary to use data for a closely
related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered bythe series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore., to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in
definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since
1919. The principal cases of this sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Depart" ment store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit. Supplements to wages and salaries, which are a
part of total labor cost, are not included) .

HOW TO READ THE TIME SERIES CHARTS (CHARTS 1-3)

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER

Pook (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER

Arabic numerals indicate latest
month for which data are plotted

Roman numerols indicate latest
quarter for which data are plotted

Indicates a br«ak in continuity—
e.g., data not available, change In
sample reported, change in base used
for computations, etc.

See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series

Broken line indicates quarterly data




/49. GNP, current dollars, Q
\" (billions of dollars)

Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A** is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-1" is
a semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
'scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(Juiy)j (Apr.)

P

(May) (F*b.)

P

T

T

42
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hrs.)

m/i

41

40

i

39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per TOO employees)

5.0

<
4.0 i
u
M

3.0
placements, all indus. (tnous.)

500 *

400 §

rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)—inverted

75

100
125 j
150 §
175
200
225
250
5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
(thous.)— inverted

200
*?
300 j>
§
400

500

1948 1949

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




1957

1958

1959

1960

1961 1962

1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)

New investment commitments

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(May)

(Feb.)

P

T

6. New orders, dur. gooes indus.

24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus. (bil, dol.)

9, Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq. ft, floor area)

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)

11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)-Q :':

27, Buying policy, capital expend, (percent reporting
commitments 6 mo. or longer)
'"'""

w.y£V

7. Private nonfarm housi

29. Mew bldg. permits, private housing unitsv.. -.:
([index: 1957-59=100)
" V:

1948

1949 , 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954

See "How to Road the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1955

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 to

PRESENT—Con.

NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)

(July]

New businesses and business failures

(May) (Feb.)

(Apr.)

P

(Oct.)

P

T

P

T

:•:-:%
'

.V

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954
See "How to Reod the Time Series Charts/' page 4.



1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data
| CHART I h

BUSINESS CYCLE SEiRIES: 1948 TO PRESENT— Con,

—TTJ

Til

NBER Leading Indicators—Con.

• • •
• •

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

i;-..:

1

(July) (Apr.)

1.

F

:•"•

...;. ,.

; '-•••••"-.

/

.*

V "'••-.•

"**•.. •'"'*

*'

•-•** •*-«»

>.:..

.-•-i'"--

*s

T

03

;" .; i6. Corporate prol its, after taxes {! >i». do).} -Q .;. .,

vr": r?

.-— ""

;,•: i

P

!:•• '

Profits and stock prices

-^

(May) (Feb.)

T

X' *v.^

'•"*'

«'

A

••* * '4*'*

"^x-

:;:y
Vrt-T

'*x"' • »

-~''"

35
30

^^^

* ,">*'

^

25
20

-*"*

i
§

15

1

••".'.'"•
^

• :""" 'v.'

K

':.;£?
", ."•

IS s

•V-'l£

l^wjr.
Sk/" S-.

>

ri*t

~Jj*"*V- •^tun

«%•

.

t^^^

"^^A^ '^^

•'•> -.*:,

.",.:,.

s""*'

.-•- ...

IA.V.V

s'*
/

**«,

*--»^

-.^

'"i*.-:^

:5L:

,*

S
\

!•'"•• ,1
A* .' ''*"'"''• ' ?

-.

*• '•«-.«»•»•"'

*./ '.
• \

¥<
^"^
#*T

•v"".r?
',;"-/;

L—

; ; • :>:

.:%*•'*' ..... .

•' <* '

.,.:;•;.:;
• .• ":

- if ;; '. •£

r^S-

- fit

.',

^

•>''>'•'

'"'•'"'*!'"'

••-. §15
"8

*^'

1

"
^

.•'•"v

ifj

/'

x

N

*» *

l '

"**^*» '»'**

'•".'."•

^* mr'

f -• **

w^

.v»S-

8

— 12

1
3
4?
8

— 8

:>

(

vf\
V

j_IO|

'>

-t 80

70
60
— 50
— 40

i'^''.;

i;;
;;

^'"!''I

1

Sv>

^
S

_ 30
-* 20

3
••"""

3

—_^

*'*'

^-^

\^

^^
. :

V;j

^
,:." .-"':
)J>AJ<, uliil..).. iiliilniii' ul,.!^! 44»Ail^H nl,,!,,!^
^lii(u|M ninlnl ,,!„!, ,IM
1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 T954 1955
1956 1957 1958

niniiy

A'

' *^*,»-•

L^^"

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

"f:.,- ;{•/:

~.™i

frF)

/.

'/•!'"''•'•'•''

^K

. .'

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




' ,X *". '
' "

i

••:*:";

^jf^fu

*N,

10

6
— 20
— ^6

• .-'.

••

'—1 Iz

—
—

^x*s

?!v."

""^2"
>v:-f^

.
^

*A.\'''
\^»^^
^ rs-X^ *****&*

.; V-»"?
tilnl nl ii
1948

i***

(Tili
1—

.!' .:•.-• ,:•::•

x^

^

x

H /''*

••-• l^T

'.' "^I: 3

e::^; '\

s

(index: 1941-43 =10)

; >: '. '• '{;

y

.,-.<:

.•

V'".W'

... ..' ' „••'

"'A' 'i*:?'
:'<'• ./?

•'

-S!
o

100 8

;•""'*.* 22. Ratio/ profits to income originating, corporate,'*; r
. v.'. ;
all industries (percenf)
.'.
•"" .",
."•:•."

\

,.:>**•*

no 7

*^S

|V
|

Si

|-.V";' \. „ ' '

.
$v '" jlw-"" , '

—

/., ^A^*
Kr

!A-

.. ',:•:'.

"""*

-— 120

$/'•

iT^""/

>•".. •"'-';

.— *

..

.'A:V»/'? 18, Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)-Q --H'
v.... •-.,,; '•',
',"'{"'•. '.V'.'"."v''SA'.V!
_;
,.-'• ^••'•'"' •".,'•-/
*-'**""

'Sf'
>

JS^

|^t'

^W

/

••:'•• .-. ••••:

—y^.

'"".'A.

.'/./•
•. " •••

y >s/ >T.
/
X v if

ivAV

T:;*'-}

y.-;

....-/••

• " .• -v:

;'t'v f:!j
.. ",•*'•'*

0

•:

/••

^
'"<"• ""' 17. Ratio, price to unit fabor cost, mfg. (index: 1947-49=100)

r^
jJ
f

';;':',v :/••

V.vX

{

pH
.i|if0^

HJ,,lM||t

iiffjniit

1959 1960

<Lilnlri

1961 1962

1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

NBER Leading Indicators—Con
(May) (Feb.)

P

T

Inventory investment, buying policy and sens

21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bi

31. Change in book value, mfgj
and trade inventories (bi!. dol.)

20. Change in book value, mfr$. inventories of purch.
mtls. (bil. dol.):-iv--vv"\

26. Buying policy, prod. mtls. (percent reporting
commitments 60 da

H.

:

;;;/"£

32. Vendor performance ( >ercent reporting slower

;^:":':::

25- Change in unfilled

;xp-:;

23, Industrial materials pr

, dur. goods Indus, (bi

es (index: 1947-49-100

—I

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

See "Mow to Read the Time Series Charts/ ' page 4.




1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

80

10

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
P

(July)

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

(Oct.)
T

T

P

T

I

P

T

I is|

60

41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)-":

(employment and unemployment

55 2
§
50
65

42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)

60 2
55 *
50
3.0
4.0

1
6.0 *
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent)-inverted K

2.0
3.0

..." *::• ••:-....w*

4.0 <

5.0 §
6.0
7.0
45. Av. weekly insured unempl. (percent)—invertec

3.0
4.0
5.0 <
-£

6.0 §
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)
AV.V.V

120
100^
80 I
60

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




195,5

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961

1962 1963

11

Basic Data
CHART 1 |
|

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TD PRESENT—Con.

^a1

hi

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Con.

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

\:

:

...j

i

(July) ^Apr.)

P
i

1

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

i

m

Production
.w

";•.. „.-*

47. Ind ustrial p roduct
\

^^'3

:*...»,
i

^2
:

:-v'/5

r'.'.*;.^
\ .••.•."!.!
"\*/^

*"X S
X*r

4
\

:»1.«.

fs

'*'

50. GNP in 1954 dolla

•:

/

:
S

"V

J^

m

*"*.

:

••**

,-•

- 550
—

x

>

v.v.

;v.v.

s

;*,v

"'S sir

500*
1
450

-

"^

400

A- •"•.::':•!•!

wi

-y.wv-

...".v/v...

[m]

600

.::.,:-.. " -: ••*:

,*'

f":V'^

/'

— I 600

^

?'

V."' rf% ,

.-.'•'

JHl]

/
jr-*'

V,;,.y.v.\

v -

\

400

—

x''"""

V

jl^ •//>'.»S

".'! v vX;il

:

x

*«ii..*.. /...•

500
475 ~
425 §

i

^5 y

w.)-Q

— 90

™ 450 JJ

^

:

s

x*'^

.-,:v+

sfc

49, GN P in cunent do ars (bil.

? :,:""•'•: ;••'•:'•::

^

f

.•.••-.•:;•/••

^!|X

— 100

@

(bit dol.)-Q

120

"1

. ... :\

^

/

--'

.«-•-- -*«,
-,;•.

x

•,••;;•£;

—

/"

L.

O^

s '*"'***

;:- -

/

T

^-••«

^,*'

>

/

A/

^
*?r

1

^T

^A

/

f

.• . *., ,
^\

; ••'.'

/~

M

v/

i (index: 1957 = 1oo)

130

550

*
t

;„•.,.;..

s

i'«

8
if

:

:

1;

.•; ;/;/»••'

:•

.*

:

/XXyX.'!'!

S
.»„/

IS

/

-

II . l l l
I. l . l

iili.l.ilu




400 2
-S
§
«^

I

-

350

;:

—

300

f /.; • ;

|I5

i

B

::

, v.v

Mini., In nlnlnl., ..Inf

1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

i "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.

—

ffi

: :•

i

v- .-;

ii
ll»

450

4

1

S

^M*'

/
1948

x«'

' '". "*•*

:'->>*f?i

;:•:

!:*''*'

/*'

J

Inlii

'''

S?"

§.;

/"'

500

'*"".'•

,•—"••'

;
' •

/"
1

j

f**"'

57. Fir al sates (bit. d

195;

n

1958
^

..l..l,il.,

,H

—

:

<

250

.il.ili.ln

1959 1960 1961

1962

1963

12

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(July)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

(Oct.)
T

T

P

T

Income and trad

••; 51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)

income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)

SAV

54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)

••>";! 55. Wholesale prices exc.
T"
(index: 1957-59=100)

prod, and foods :•,:;:'

Wholesale prices

-J80
1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

13

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:

1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May) (Feb.)

(Julyfr (Apr.)

(Aug.);

P

T

P

P.

T

61. Bus. expend., new p ont and equip, (bil. dol,)-Q:.'

Investment expenditures

-I 40

.*""

../

62. Labor cost per unit f output, mtg. (index: 1947-49=100)

125 ~

120 7;

Cost per unit of output

115

;.:•!!: 63. Labor cost per dol. f real GNP (index; 1947-49-=100)-Q

'.'...

64. Book value of mfrs. industries (bil. dol.)

.•:/»..

MiCxv 65. Book value of mfrs. Indus., finished goods (bil dol.)

M

;x:j;£

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.

 are anticipated.
2 quarters


1954

66. Consumer installme t'debtfbil, dol.)

"

67. Bonk rates on short term bus. loans (percent)-Q::'

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

"B

14

Basic Data

CHART 1

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May)

T

P

T

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)

87. General imports (bil. dol.)

Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.)

89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance
of payments (bil. dol.)-Q

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

1954

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ ' page 4.




1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

15

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:

1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

P

T

T

82, Fed. cash paymen

120
100

Federal budget and military obligat

80
120
100

83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bi

80
60

84. Fed. cash surplu

deficit (bil. dot.)

.I'"

1 + 10

M

4

95. Surplus ordefici
Fed. Income and
acct. (bil. dol.)~

-10
+ 10

-10
2.5
2.0 ^
1.5 §
1.0

. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dot.) /;

i
v
pt. oblig., total (bil. dol.)

5.0

** 3
3.0

2.0
tract awards in U.S. (bil.

3.0
2.5
2.0

i.o

1948 1949

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

195

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
Solid lines indicate 3 month average; latest data for 3-mbnth moving average plotted 1 month behind seasonally adjusted data.




1963

Basic Data

16

CHART 1

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.

(Nov.)

(May)

T

P

T

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Oct.)

P

T

85. Change in money supply (percent)

.8

1
-.4

93. Free reserves (bit. dol.)

,6

0

-.2
-A
- .6

120

no

81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100) 4^

100

i
"a

b{

90
80

160
140
120

94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59

100^
80 -g
60

40

1948

1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data

17

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Ihdustrial Production
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

Uuy,) (Apr.)

P

T

T

Industrial production indexes

180
160

121. OECD countries, Indus, prod, (index:
.v.v.v.v.

140 2
120 -g
u

100

80

122. United Kingdom, Indus, prod, (index

160
140
CN

120 *

"8
«*>
100
80

123. Canada, indus, prod, (index1: 1957

120
100 H
1
80

47. United States, jndus, prod, (index

120
CN

100 ^
80

1948 1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

DigitizedSee "How to Read the Time Series Charts/1 page 4.
for FRASER


1954

1955

1956

1947

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data

18

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)
P

P

Industrial production indexes-con

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr)

(July)

(O«t.)

T

P

t

'• : > -' 125. West Germany, Indus, prod, (index: 1953=100);

128. Japan, indus. prod, (i

126. France, indus. prod, (index: 1953=100)

^.g

:
*'"'"':* 127. Italy, indus. prod, (index: 1953-100)
.,::..:. :
..,,. ....

"j"'

120-|

- 100
- 80

J 60
1948 1949

1950

1951 1952 1953

DigitizedSee "How to Read the Time Series Charts,,"
for FRASER


page 4.

1954

195J5

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic D^ta

19

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs are indicated by GO ;
*.
D
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order*
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources, of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusipn Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month

1. Average 2. Accession
workweek of rate, manuproduction facturing
workers,
manufacturing
(Per 100
(Hours per
prod . wkr . )employees )

4. Number of
30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
cultural
rate, manu- persons on
temporary
Dla elements, facturing
layoff, all
all indusindustries1
tries
(Per 100 (tfhous. ) employees )

( Thous . )

5. Avg. weekly Value of 24. Value of
6.
initial claims mf rs . ' new mf rs . ' new
orders, mafor unemploy- orders, durment insurchinery and
able goods
ance, State
equipment
industries
industries
programs
( Thous . ) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.)

1959

4,0.1
40.2
4.0.4,
407
,.
407
,.
4-0.5
40.2
40.3
401
..
4.0.0
39.9
40.3

July
September
October
November
December

4.1
4-3
4.7
4-5
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4-1
5-3

478
490
509
516
512
523
527
501
516
492
512
510

1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8

404
...
^0.1

February
torch
April
Mav

4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.8

506

1.6
1.9

2.0
2.0
2.2
2.7

2.4
1.9

120
119
113
101
116
121
125

155
150
93
159
138

292
284
258
244
246
258
264
291
271
311
351
275

13.90
14.92
15.32
15.80
15.24
16.13
15.49
13.97
14.75
15.10
13.72
14.77

4.46
4*73
4-97
4.80
4-85
5.11
5.16
4-85
5.02
5.12
4.99
5.37

281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
373
385
381

14.19
14.80
14-64
14.47
14.68
14-34
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22

5.04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5.17
5.01
4.78
4.96
4.87
©4-65
4.81
4. 6
//
6

393
©429
371
370
357
331
351
315
329
307
307
305

©12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14.79
14.90
15.02
15.63
15.74
16.07
16.10
-, f n i
16.24

4-79
4. 80
5*10
4.99
5-17
5-55
5.45
5-59
5.74
51 rt
.45

312
285
273
0270
300
305

064
1.3
16.19
16.00
15.73
15.97
15.44
rl6.27
r!5.76
pl6.08

5.78
5.71
5.59
5.47
5.60
5.62
r5.71
r5.63
1EP5.91

1960
February
March..
April
May
June
July
August
September
October.
November.

39-9
39.8
4.0.1
39-9
39.9
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.3
©38-5

535
513
504
494
482
460
488
473
460
475
444

3.7
3.6
3.5
Q3.3

2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.9

122
110
116

156
160
145
177
154
153
166
128
179

1961

March
April
May
June
July
August
September. . . .
..
October
November
pAfipmbpf'T T T » , . ,
1962
January
February
March
April
Mav. .
....
June . . . . . .
.....
July
September
October

39.0
39.3
39.3
39-7
39.8
39.9
40.0
40.0
39.6
40.2
40.6
40.4

4.0
3.8
®4.6

4-4
4.2
3.9
4.0
4.1
3.7
4.4
4.0
3.8

39.8
40.3
40.5
040.8
40 6
40.5

4.4
4.1
4.3
44
.
4.3

r40.5
40.2
p40.4

r4-l
p3.7
(NA)

3.9

443
444
474
©433
, 481
494
470
529
491
530
1
565
526

2.9
©2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.1

568
548
575
576
©602
538
553
1
555
P534

1.9

,

1.9
1.6
(Hi 1.6
1.8
2.0
r2.4
P2.5
(NO

193
©220
215
137
151
147
99
138
123
111
111
123
177
E80
117
107
118
112
126
134
116

313
301
301
307

5.30
5otl
.28

2

^-Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended October 6, 1962.



20

Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs are indicated by E3 ;
*,
D
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45), Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings

10, Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

(Mil. sq. ft.
floor apace)

(Bil. dol.)

31.93
32.16
35-11
41.92
38.55
34-19
37.64
34.14
38.38
41.44
36.03
39-44

4.91
5.21
5.57
5.35
5.40
5.68
5.72
5.25
5.62
5.73
5-58
5.92

37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.U
38.15

5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5,58
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5.27
5.39
5.30

35.18
36.90
38.16
Q35.09
35.89
37.32
35.67
39.79
38.36
33.42
42.22
41.54

5.52
5.50
5.64
5.51
5.73
5.92
5.80
6.13
5.93
6.13
6.41
6.04

37.72
44.72
46.09
39.93
E546.42
44.34
38.60
43.27
CNA)

6.31
GD6.44
6.40
6.09
6.28
6.31
r6.36
p6.31
(NA)

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.

dol.)

7. New private29. Index of
27. Buying
12. Net change
in business
policy, capi- nonfarm dwel- new private
housing units population,
ling' units
tal expend.,
authorized by operating
pet. reporting started
local build- businesses
commitments
ing permits
6 mo. and over*
( Percent
reporting)

(Ann. rate,
thoue. )

(1957-59-100)

( Thous . )

19!J9

February, . . . . . .
March
April
May
„..
July
August
September
October
November
December
1960
February
March
April
May
July.. . . . »
August
October
November
December
1961
January
February. ......
March
April
May ....
„ ..„
June
July
„. . .
August
October. .......
November
n^ftemb^TN , 1 1 , r ,
1962
March
April
May
July
August
September
October.
November
December




2.16
2.36
2.46
2.51

2.27
2.02

(D1.79
2.19

1.87
1.90
2.21
2.16

ED 2.34

1.97
(NA)

41
43
42
49
49
50
49
53
54
49
55
49

1,542
1,503
1,567
1,568
1,546
1,532
1,555
1,450
1,498
1,360
1,350
1,451

114.1
118.7
122.8
115.5
112.9
113.3
108.9
109.3
106.0
99.9
99.4
105.3

55
50
46
50
46
50
45
47
43
39
38
©37

1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987

98,3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
91.4
©87.1

40
39
45
45
41
38
45
47
46
39
39
47

1,098
1,115
1,262
1,H3
1,268
1,351
1,318
1,301
1,365
1,404
1,328
1,257

88.7
88.8
91.6
91.8
92.3
96.9
97.7
100.4
96.8
102.6
101.9
110.7

41
47
44
46
39
41
38
46
©48

1,247
1,134
1,407
1,521
01,566
1,399
rl,447
rl,511
pi, 284

104.2
(3113.5
105.7
112.9
103.6
104.4
106.5
r 103.1
p!07.6

+19
+20
+19
+18

+19
+17
+14
+10

©+6
+10
+10
+10

+11

tB+11
(NA)

Basic Data

21

Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSfNESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by QJ] ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 ) Series numbers are for identification
5.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the badk cover, "r" indicates revised; "pn, preliminary.
, NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
13. Number
of new business incorporations

Year and
month

(Number)

1959

(Mil. dol.)

(Number per (Ann. rate,
week)
bil. dol.)

16,346
16,255
16,548
16,604
16,296
15,204
15,658
15,813
15,728
15,383
15,695
15,959

July
September
October*
November
December
1960
February
March.
April
May
July
September
November
December.
1961
February
March
April
^y

July
September . . . T - T
November
T T

68.75
53.26
60023
63.08
48.96
51.25
54-47
54.50
61.51
55.98
56.01
64.04

29
27
25
26
27
22
27
32
25
24
29
30

16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,240
14,281
14,167

March.
April. .,
May

ppf.plfrihAir. . , , ,

14. Current 15. Business 16. Corpoliabilities failures
rate profit^
of business with liabil- after taxes
ities of
failures
$100,000 and
over

52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78

29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37

©13,492
14,601
14,658
15,327
15,225
15,342
15,539
15,213
15,419
©16,286
16,149
15,818

80.16
84.45
111.36
79.07
84.09
87.05
80.52
99.41
124.11
74.04
112.36
068.94

38
42
40
39
41
41
41
35
40
43
39
38

15,124
15,809
15,713
15,402
15,260
14,904
15,247
15,104
15,249

104.72
87.36
71.20
111.67
95.62
91.89
107.22
142.00
102.08

a

24-1
26.6
23.9
23.3

24.9
23.5
21.9
21.7

©20.3
22.9
23.7

S26.3

17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index

(1947-49=10C}}
102.6
103.5
103.3
105.1
106.8
106.2
104.6
103.9
103.0
102.4
101.3
104.0
105.3
104.3
103.7
103.5
104.2
104.2
104.8
104.1
102.8
102.9
102.2
101.9
101.4
101.7
©101.1
102.2
103.6
104.3
105.5
106.9
105.3
105.1
104.7
105.1

18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations

22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*

(Cents)

( Percent)

(1941-43*10)

8.9

10.4

9.8

11.1

8.4

10.0

8.1

9.6

8.8

10.0

8.0

9.4

7.8

8.9

7.3

8.8

©6,6

©8.2

7.6

9.1

7.9

9.3

(E8.7

010.0

55.62
54-77
56,15
57.10
57,96
57.46
59.74
59.40
57.05
57.00
57.23
59.06
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.47
56080
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71o08
(H]71.74

1962

March
April
May
July

August
September
October
December

October 19, 1962.




37
032
37
38
37
42
37
43
41

25.6
26.1
(MA)

104.6
104.4
104.0
103.3
104.4
104.4
105.2
105.6
[SjP106.9

8.1

9.5

8.2

9.6

(MA)

(HA)

69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
*55.59

22

Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continucd

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by [H] ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
21. Change in
bus . inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment

Year and
month

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

1959

+6.4

March
April* . . , . , . . . .
May

+11.5

July
,
Augus t , . . . „ . . . .
September. * ....
October
November

+1.1
+7.1

1960
January . . . „ . . . *
February . . . , , , .
March* . . . . » . . * .
April
May . . * . . . . * . . . .

+10.8
+4.4

July . ,
September
October
November
December.
1961

+2.1

>.

February
March*
April
May. . „

-1.1

©-3.6
+2.1

July
+4.0

October
+6.0
1962
January . *

March*
April*
May
June ...........
July.

El+6.7

September
October
November
1

October 18, 1962.




+4.0

p+1.5

31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

20. Change in
book value of
mf rs . ' inventories,
purchased
materials
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol. )

26. Buying policy, production
matls., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*
( Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries

23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*

( Percent
reporting )

(Bil. dol.)

(1947-49=100)

+3.5
+6.2
+6.6
+14.1
+8.7
+11.4
+6.4
-0.2
-5.1
+0.6
-2.5
+12.3

+2.4
+2,4
+3.3
+3.5
+4.1
+6.1
+0.3
-2.5
-5.2
-3.2
+0.5
+2,4

60
66
65
68
71
66
67
64
72
66
66
67

58
62
62
62
62
62
60
62
64
64
56
50

+0.88
+1.03
+0.86
+0.47
-0.17
+OJ.O
-0.13
+0.02
+0.45
+0.64
-0.05
-0.12

89.0
88,9
90.4
91.2
91,9
92.2
92.2
92.6
93,9
94,5
94.6
93.7

+12.8
+11,7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
+0.4
-0.6
+2.4
-2.1
-6.2

+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4

64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48

44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38

-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.50
-0.43

94-4
93.2
91.5
92.8
93.0
91.7
90,8
91.3
90.4
B9.0
88.0
©86.5

-5 .8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
E+7.S
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0

-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3-0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3

51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54

38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53

+0.01
-0.02
-0.11
+0.42
+0.23
+0.07
+0.49
+0.22
-0.03
+0.33
+0,25
+0.28

86.9
88,7
92,1
93.0
E93.3
90.3
90.9
92.0
91.9
91 o4
83.4
90.2

+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3.1
+4'. 3
r+3.3
P-3.1
(NA)

SH5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
p-1.1
(NA)

57

56
056
55
48
46
42
44
44
48

EJ+1.19
+0.24
-0.37
-0.39
-0.31
-0,36
r+0.29
r-0.87
p-0.47

91.9
89.9
89.7
67.9
37. 3
85.2
84.1
84.4
84.0
1
84.9

ED 61

56
55
49
52
58
52
52

Basic Data

23

Toble l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by 5D ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
n
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover. r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41 . Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments

Year and
month

42. Total
nonagricultural employment,
labor force
survey1

43. Unem40. Unem45. Average
weekly inployment
ployment
1
sured unemrate, total rate, married males1 ployment
rate, State
programs

46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers

( Percent )

( Percent )

( Percent )

59,016
58,974
59,337
59,520
59,668
59,752
60,108
60,103
59,925
60,225
59,741
60,465

5.97
5.91
5.63
5.23
5.09
5.04
5.15
5.32
5.56
5.72
5.7^
5-41

4.09
4.06
3.69
3.22
3.24
3.12
3.28
3.39
3.68
3.70
4.24
3.36

4.94
4.66
4.32
3.95
3.62
3.53
3.72
4.11
4.15
4.78
5.51
4.76

84.9
91.9
96.7
102.8
102.0
105.6
108.8
105.5
105.1
103.2
104.8
103.5

100.3
101.9
103.6
106.6
109.2
109.6
107.6
103.6
103.2
102.0
102.6
108.8

54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707

60,436
60,875
60,488
61,132
61,371
61,293
61,133
61,035
60,996
60,758
61,210
©60,635

5.29
4.91
5.38
5.17
5.H
5.44
5.44
5.75
5.70
6.14
6.18
6.65

3.35
3.02
3.48
3.34
3.36
3.61
3.70
3.95
3.83
4.32
4.46
4.73

4.27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33

109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0

111.1
109 .6
109.1
108.7
109.7
109.4
109.4
108.3
106.7
106.1
104.5
103.0

53,581
©53,485
53,561
March
April
53,663
ffey
53,894
June
54,182
July
54,335
54,333
fippt.piriher . , - * . * 54,304
October
54,385
November
54,525
ppp.pniber.
54,492
1962

60,852
60,922
61,274
61,101
61,234
61,543
61,371
61,417
61,188
61,369
61,840
61,618

6.65
6.91
6.76
6.93
©7.02
6.86
6.87
6.81
6.86
6 0 66
6.11
6.00

4.72
©4.91
4.65
4.88
4-89
4,77
4.71
4.77
4.60
4.19
4.23
3.90

6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81

79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9

102.3
©102 .1
102.6
105.6
108.3
110.4
112.0
113.0
111.0
112.8
114-1
114.8

54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
0r55,6l7
r55,556
p55,551

61,690
62,206
62,280
62,236
62,775
62,747
62,809
IE 63, 172
62,914

5.82
5.58
5.45
5.54
5.43
5-46
£1 5. 35
5.83
5.78

3.80
3.40
3.47
3.72
03.37
3.64
3.52
3.71
3.46

4-71
4.52
4.41
3.93
[33.82
3.96
4.25
4-41
4.38
2
4.26

102.3
105.9
0106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
P93.0

113.5
114.8
115.7
116.7
117.7
117.9
118.7
rl!8.7
0P118.8

( Thous . )

1959

fferch
April
May
July
August. ........
October. .......
December

52,446
52,612
52,843
53,328
53,606
53,779
53,879 .
53,357
53,413
53,353
53,622
54,116

( Thous . )

(1957=100)

(1957=100)

50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
421.7
434.0
427.6
431.1

1960
January. . . . , . . »
March
April
May

.

July
October
November
December

440.9
442.3
439.7
437.7

1961

February
April
May
July

©433.9
443.9
450.4
463.4

467.4
0470.8

(NA)

1
Beginning with April 1962, the 1 6 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
90
•the 1 5 Census is used as the benchmark.
9 0
2
Week ended September 29, 1962.




24

Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-ConHnued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current h;lghs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by GO ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Easiness Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

49. Gross national product
in current
dollars

57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

472.0

465.5

487.8

476.3

462.7

481.5

52. Personal
51. Bank
debits outside income
NYC, 343
centers

(Ann.- rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

54. Sales of
53. Labor
retail stores
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )

(Mil. dol.)

55. Index of
wholesale
prices except
farm products
and foods

(1957-59*100)

1959

March
April

May

JUly

488.5

431.4

501.7

490.8

504.8

500.4

December

100.4

1,577.3
1,609.4
1,627.7
1,656.1
1,638.3
1,639.2
1,685.6
1,658.8
1,654.1
1,668.0
1,692.9
1,699.6

372.1
374.7
378.4
. 382.3
384.8
387.0
387.4
3S4.3
384.9
385.4
389.7
395.5

100.3
101.3
103.3
105.0
106.1
107.1
106.6
103.6
103.7
102.9
104.3
107.7

17,455
17,575
17,914
17,953
18,222
18,189
18,296

100 .8
101.0
101.2
101.§
101.4

17,784
18,341
17,842
17,485

101.4
101.5
101.5
101.5
101.5

1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714-0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
Ql,742.3

395.7
395.2
395.3
400.2
401.6
402.5
402.4
403.2
403.8
404.7
403.8
©402.6

108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7

18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887

1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9

403.4
404.2
^06.7
410.6
413.3
416.4
U17.5
418.3
419.7
423.6
427.8
430.5

104-0
Q103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8

©17,773
17,786
18,117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827

2,010.0
1,916.7
1,985.5
2,044.5
2,015.3
2,000.3
©2,055.1
r2, 017.1
1,988.6

428.8
431.9
435.2
438.3
439.7
440.7
441.9
r443.0
Sp443.0

110.8
112.1
113.0
115.0
115.1
114.9
B115.2
rl!5.0
p!14.4

r!8,835
r!8,965
r!9,266
19,596
19,432
19,089
El-19,682
r!9,551
p!9,351

ia,iio

101.5

1960

March
April
May

June
July
August.

503.7

501.5

October
November

503.3

504.4

Q500.8

©504.4

513-1

511.0

52H.3

518.3

538.6

532.6

February
March
April

545.0

538.3

May

552.0

r547.9

0P555.5

Hp554.0

101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4

101 .a
101.3
101.3

.101.3

101.1
101 .P,
101.1
101.0

1961

February
April.
Mav

July....,
August
September
October
December

101.0
101.0
101.0
100.9
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.6
100.8
100.9

1962

June
July

September
October

100.8
100.6

©100.6
100.7
100.9

loo. a
100.9
100,7

IHJ100.9
B

ioo.a

'•Excludes stepped-up rate of payments and special payments of government life insurance dividends to veterans in
March 1961 ( 1 8 billion) and July 1961 ( 2 6 billion), respectively.
$.
$.
3
Week ended October 16, 1962,



Basic Data

25

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by OH] ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
:

—

!

i-!

•=-(

-

' --•-."

'-:

—

NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month

61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

62. Index of
wage and
salary cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
(1947-49=100)

63. Index of
labor cost per
unit of output,
total GNP

64. Book value
of manufacturers' inventories, all
manufacturing
industries

(1947-49=100)

(Bil. dol.)

65. Book value 66 , Consumer
of mfrs.' in- installment
ventories of
debt
finished goods,
all manufacturing ind.
(Bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1959
February
March
April
Mav

30.60
32.50

July
33.35
October
33.60

121.9
121.1
121.4
119.6
117.8
118.4
120.2
120.9
122.1
122.5
123.8
120.6

135.7
136.4
138.5
-138.7

49.5
49.9
50.5
51.1
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.1
51.9
51.5
51.6
52.4

18.8
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.3
19.3
19.4
19.6
19.6
19.7
20.1

33,391
33,763
34,171
34,609
35,064
35,558
36,093
36,704
37,271
37,785
38,203
38,534

53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7

20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8

38,897
39,366
39,773
40,303
40,608
40,907
41,175
41,401
41,627
41,799
41,961
42,079

53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2

21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0

42,070
41,993
41,980
41,873
41,885
41,885
©41,857
.41,901
41,887
42,068
42,368
42,632

55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56.9
57.0
Hi p 57.0
(NA)

22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
®P22.>
(NA)

42,847
43,083
43,352
43,869
44,282
44,600
44,941
[345,327
(NA)

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*

(Percent)

4.51
4.87
5.27
5.36

1960
February
March
April
Mav

35.15
36.30

Julv
35.90
September
35.50
December

119.3
120.4
121.1
121.5
120.6
120.7
120.1
120.9
122.2
122.4
123.3
123.4

139.3
140.8
142.3
141.9

5.34
5.35
4.97
4-99

1961
33.85
April
May

©33.50

June
July
34.70
35.40

124.3
123.9
124.2
122.7
120.8
119.7
118.4
©116.9
118.8
119.0
119.7
119.3

143.3
142.9
142.9
©141.4

4.97
4.97
4.99
©4.96

1962
35.70
March
April
May

®36.95

July

*37. 75
*37.95
^•Anticipated.




120.1
120.0
120.1
0121.0
.120.1
120.0
119.2
rl!8.7
P117.9

142-5
0144.4

(NA)

4.98
05.01

4.99

26

Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are Indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by [ED ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. s<sries with bu siness cycle £significance
Year and
month

86. Exports, 87. General
imports,
excluding
military aid total
shipments,
total

88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)

95. Surplus
( + ) or deficit (-), Federal income
and product
account
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann, rate, (Ann. rate,
bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol. )

89. Excess, 82. Federal
receipts (+) cash payor payments ments to the
(-) in U.S. public
balance of
payments

(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)

83. Federal
cash receipts from
the public

84. Federal
cash surplus
(+) or deficit (-)

1959

1,318.5
1,292.1
1,300.9
1,296.8
April.
1,326.6
May
1,345.9
1,394.6
July
„. ,
1,429.2
1,498.8
September. ..,..,
1,335.2
October* . . . . 0 . .
1,380.7
November. * . . < > * •
1,497.2
1960
1,561.3
1,565.7
February
1,518.1
Mareh. . „
1,622.2
April...
1,659.3
May
1,633.8
July
1,706.5
1,624.8
August. .........
1,647.2
1,667.6
October
1,680.6
1,645.3
1961
1,646.1
January
1,736.4
1,711.1
March
1,658.3
April.
May
1,577.0
1,594.9
1,668.0
juiv
1,659.7
August
1,667.8
1,772.9
1,716.3
November
1,719.2
December
1962
1,660.0
1,852.1
1,632.1
1,794.6
April
,.
1,774.7
May
„,
1,858.9
1,718.1
July
„
1,651.6
August
„.
(NA)
September

1,164.6
1,194.5
1,213.5
1,210.3
1,312.9
1,311.7
1,251.1
1,298.3
1,407.9
1,200.5
1,298.6
1,333.2

+153.9
+97.6
+87.4
+86.5
+13.7
+34.2
+143.5
+130.9
+90.9
+134.7
+82.1
+164.0

1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8

+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5

1,150.9
1,146.1
1,158.4
1,159.0
1,155.2
1,177.2
1,366.4
1,261.3
1,280.3
1,322.4
1,310.7
1,296.5

+495.2
+590.3
+552.7
+499.3
+421.8
+417.7
+301.6
+398.4
+387.5
+450.5
+405 .6
+422.7

1,320.1
1,314.1
1,336.1
1,374.2
1,385.0
1,345.8
1,353.4
1,377.0
(NA)

+339.9
+538.0
+296.0
+420.4
+389.7
+513.1
+364.7
+274.6
(NA)

r-951
1

-1,062
-1,191
-539

-702
-752

-1,192
2

-l,279

-319
3

+176
-910

-1,408

-476
-218
(NA)

100.0
96.0
92.7
96.4
95.1
96.2
97.0
96.2
93.2
92.9
99.9
91.2

81.5
84.9
76.8
87.2
86.0
81.2
89.4
92.4
95.7
88.3
96.6
98.8

-18.5
-11.1
-15.9
-9.2
-9.1
-15.0
-7.6
-3.8
+2.5
-4.6
-3.3
+7.6

89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.3
96.0

89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8 .
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
103.3
100.4

0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
+1.0
+4.4

96.8
95.4
107.2
100.7
110.9
105-4
97.5
1U.O
101.8
111.1
107.3
103.8

93.1
93.2
89.1
98.0
102.2
95.3
90.3
104.0
100.8
99.1
103.9
102.8

-3.7
-2.2
-18.1
-2.7
-8.7
-10.1
-7.2
-10.0
-1.0
-1.2.0
-3.4
-1.0

116.1
108.7
107 .3
110.2
107.0
106.1 1
115.3
rll3.6
106.7

100.0
99.9
93.8
109.5
113.2
101.1
109.2
rlH.O
109.3

-16.1
-8.8
-13.5
-0.7
+6.2
-5.0

-6.1

+0.4
+2.6

November «
December
U.S. subscription to International Monetary Fund of $1,375 million in gold and securities.
single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.

8
Includes
3




-2.6
+1.6
-2.4
-1,0

+8.1

+5*5
+1.5
-0.4

-6.3
-4.2
-3.3
-1.1

-2.4
-0.7

(m)

Basic Data

27

Table 1.-BAS1C DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
"by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by ED ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order4
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the tiack cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S+ series with business cycle significance— Continued
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

Year and
month

(Mil. dol.)
1959
January
February
March
April
May

July
August . . . . .
....
September
October

1960
January
February
April
Mav.
Julv. ...
September
October.
November
December
1961
February
April
Nb V

June
July
September
October
December
1962
January
February
April..
May
July
September
October

•.

..
.

91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total

92. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money supply

( percent )

93. Free
reserves*

81. Index of
consumer
prices

94. Index of
construction
contracts,
total value

(Mil. dol.) (1957-59=100) (1957-59-100)

1,330
1,362
1,371
1,398
1,381
1,425
1,202
870
1,319
1,517
1,124
929

3,538
3,601
3,739
3,620
3,569
3,863
3,729
3,263
3*906
3,802
3,608
3,160

1,465
1,916
1,772
1,762
1,513
1,905
2,249
1,986
1,931
2,123
2,289
1,320

+0.28
+0.28
+0.35
+0.07
+0.42
+O.U
+0.42
-0.35
-0.21
-0.21
-0.14
-0.49

"-59
-48
-140
-259
-319
-513
-556
-536
-493
-459
-433
-424

101.0
101.0
100.9
101.0
101.2
101.4
101.6
101.7
101.9
102.2
102.2
102.3

98
95
110
118
103
114
115
102
106
110
92
97

937
1,104
1,020
983
1,373
1,269
2,866
1,230
1,206
998
1,559
1,239

3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,926
3,299
4,109
3,671

1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797

-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-O.LV
-0.28
-0.28
+0.21
+0.36
+0.07
+0.07
-0.14
+0.28

-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
+37
+120
+247
+4U
+480
+614
+669

102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8

93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
111
120

1,306
1,476
1,163
1,089
1,117
1,238
1,671
2,237
1,864
1,436
1,372
1,891

3,621
3,976
3,552
3,449
3,600
3,723
4,314
5,344
4,785
4,191
4,121
4,681

1,944
2,153
1,774
1,882
1,501
1,888
2,066
2,389
2,127
2,847
2,500
2,153

+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0^21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55

+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419

103.9
104.0
104.1
103.9
104.0
104.0
104.3
104.4
104.5
104.4
104.4
104.4

108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119

1,912
1,147
1,150
1,904
1,075
r 1,164
2,845
1,365
(ML)

449
,4
3,899
3,914
4,491
3,967
r3,821
5,821
4,616
(NA)

3,429
2,121
2,230
1,855
1,774
1,715
2,047
(NA)

+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
r^0.41
p+0.14

+546
+434
+379
+441
+434
+371
+443
r+436
p+382

104.6
104.9
105.2
105.2
105.4
105.3
105.4
105.6
(NA)

115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
(NA)




;

28

Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by GO ;
*.
the reverae is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships'or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Rislness Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes1'1 on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Internationa L comparisons of industria:L production
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production

Year and
month

(1953-100)

122. United 123. Canada,
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
index of
industrial production
production
(1953-100)

(1957=100)

47. United
States ,
Index of
Industrial
production
(1957*100)

125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
(1953=100)

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production

128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production

(1953-100)

(1953=100)

(1935-100)

1959
134
136
139
139
139
141
141
143
145
147
150
153

April
May
July

October

115
115
117
118
118
120
121
122
124
126
126
128

104
105
105
107
107
108
107
106
108
110.
108
109

100
102
104
107
109
110
108
104
103
102
103
109

I'll
154
158
158
158
160
161
164
167
169
170
175

1/9
152
152
156
157
159
159
154
160
163
168
175

148
154
154
153
154
152
151
158
161
165
171
173

157
160
162
168
173
178
181
184
188
192
196
202

151
152
155
154
155
157
157
157
158
159
160
160

128
128
129
131
131
130
130
131
131
131
129
131

111
110
111
107
108
107
106
107
108
107
107
107

111
110
109
109
110
109
109
108
107
106
104
103

173

170
166
167
170
169
17A

17?

?n*»
213
212
218
?1 A
222

159
162
162
163
162
163
164
163
163
164
166
167

128
129
129
130
129
132
133

107
107
107
109
10Q
112
112

102
102
103
106
108
110
11?
113
111

1960

February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
October. ........
November
December
*.
1961
January ........
February
April
May.. . . ,
July..
September
October

130

HA^

128
128
128
128

115
115
116
116

1?A

11 A

177
176
178
181
182
•177
181
185
185
187
190
1Q?
1Q3
1Q3
1Q1
1 AA
1 rtrt

1«A

ion

175

177
180
180
183
181
178
180
1S3
181
1 ft!

184
ifty
i Ay
184

113
ll/
11 *»

TOO

1 AQ

TQT

1Q1
1Q3

T 1J
114
11C
115

T Qy
194

1 QO
192

198

193

1 1A

1 QO
-W

1 QQ

193

T OQ

194
-i X

178
180
17Q
181
14
8
182

186

? *
? !

??Q

T 0C

noy

184
188
188

?3*i
?A3
?/ 5

189

252

1Q/
1Q3

?AQ
oca

•jq/
1Q7

?A7

OC£>

1 Q7

99Q

?on
i on

onret

?03
?OQ
?1 5
?1 5

pdy
pan

OftO

OQC

<i7P
pQ/>.

1962

March
April
May
July
August
September

167
i AQ
168
1AQ

„.,

i 7n
i 'yn
i ^7n
(NA ^

1 OQ
~\ 30

1 ?Q
1 op
-L.P<i
-i •ao
IjsjJ
-i QQ
JL}£
CMA
UNA. \)

•JTQ
11Q
i on
120
120

120
(NA J
/»T»

\

December
1

0rganizaiion for Economic Cooperation and Development.




~\~\n
lid
J~Lo

om
<;01

-i -i rt
118

198

119

19o
/197
HA \
(NA)

-1 -1 Q

11V

119

1 9
9
-1 Q/

196
196
198
198
(NA)
O

OT £*
216
217
215
218
220
/M. \
(NA)

295
292
300
29B
302
r301
p29?
/VTA \
(NA)

Analytical Measures

29

Toble 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.

Series

Avg.
change,1 Jan.
of
1948to
change 1961 *
Feb.

196;3
Feb.
to
Mar.

Mar.
to
Apr.

Apr.
to
May

May
to
June

June
to
July

July
to
Aug.

Aug.
to
Sept.

Sept.
to
Oct.2

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
2.
30.
3.
4.

Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. placements, all industries...
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
5. Avg. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted).

Percent
..do
..do
..do
..do

05

6.0
3.4
11.9

+1 3 +0 5
-6.8 +4.9
-3.5 +4.9
0.0 +15.8

'. 19.4 +54.8 -46.3

7.0

..do

+8.7 +4.2

+0 7 -0 5
-2.3
+2.3
+0.2
+4.5
0.0 -12.5

02

00

-9.3 +5.1
-10.6 +2.8
-11.1 -20.0

-0 7
-9.8
+0.4
-4.2

+0 5
NA
-3.8
NA

+8.5

-10.3

+5.1

-12.5

-6.3

+13.4

+1.1

-11.1

-1.7

-2.6

+3.8

0.0

-3.3

+5.4

-3.1

+2.0

+0,4

+1.6

-1.4

+5.0

-4.5

-12.9

+12.1

NA

+0 5

+0 8

-2.0

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,

5.6 -1.5 -1.2 -1.7 +1.5
. .do
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment industries... ..do
6.1 -1.2 -2.1 -2.1 +2.4
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings.. ..do.
12.4 +18.6 +3.1 -13.4 +16.3
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
6 4 +2.1 -0.6 -4 8 . +3 1
..do
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
3
11.2 +8.3
-15.8
..dd
602 manufacturing corporations
27. Buying policy, capital expend., percent
7.6 +14.6 -6.4 +4.5 -15.2
reporting conrnitments 6 mo. and over. ..do
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
. do . . . 4.1 -9.1 +24 1 +8 1 +3 o
.
..
29. Index of new private housing units
-8.2
authorized by local bldg. permits.... ..do*
3.9 +8.9 -6.9 +6.8
12. Net change in business population,
0
+1
3
operating businesses3 *
Thous . .
..
-0.9
13. Mumber of new business incorporations. Percent . . 3.0 +4.5 -0.6 -2.0
14. Current liabilities of business
failures ( inverted)
15. Business failures with liabilities of
$100, 000 and over ( inverted )
16. Corporate profits after taxes3
17. Price per unit of labor cost index....
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar
sales, all mfg. corporations3
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,

. .do... .. 16.3 +16.6 +-18. 5 -56.8

17.3 +13.5 -15.6
. . do
7.7 -2.7
..do
1
0.9 -0.2 -CL4
..dp.....

-2.7
-0.7

+14.4
+2.6
+2.0
+1.1

-0.8

NA

NA

+5.1

-7.3 +21.1

+4.3

-10 7

+3 4

+4 4 -1*5 0

+0.8

+2.0

-3.2

+4.4

-2.3

+2.3

NA
-0.9

+1.0

+3.9

-16.7

-32.4

+28.1

-13.5

+11.9

-16.2
NA
+0.4

+4.7

0.0

+0.8

+1.2

NA

+1.2

..do.....

7.7

-6.9

•

5.8
2.6

-5.0
+1.7 +0.1

AnnJ rate,
bil. ddl.

3.1

+0.7

. .do

4.0

-1.3

-2.1

-1.7

+0.6

+1.2

-1.0

-6.4

NA

1.7

-^2.8 +0.7

-1-9

-0.8

-1.2

-0.5

+0.4

NA

-8.2

-1.8

-10.9

+6.1

+11.5

-10.3

0.0

0.0 -1.8

-12.7

-4.2

-8.7

+4.8

Bill dol. 0.46 -0.95 -0.61
23. Index of industrial materials prices.. Percent . . 2.2 -2.2 -0.2

-0.02
-2.0

..do
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm and
nonfarm after val ad lustment
.
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
41
trade inventories, total
20. Change in book value of mfrs1 inventories purchased materials^
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
report, commitments 60 days or more..
32. Vendor performance, percent report25. Change in mfrs.1 unfilled orders,

Percent . . 6.2

..do. . . . 11.3
..

+7.0

-3.2

+1.1
-7.4

-11.7

+2.4

NA
+2.7

-0.9

-2.5

-2.7

+0.08 -0.05
-0.7
-2.4

0.0

+9.1

+0.65 -1.16
+0.4
-1.3

+0.40
-0.5

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricul+0.6

+0.2

+0.7

+0.3

+0.2

+0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.4 +0.8
4.7 +4.1
5.8 +10.5

+0.1
+2.3
-2.1

-0.1
-1.7
-7.2

+0.9

0.0
-0.6
-8.0

+0.1
+2.0
+3.3

+0.6
-9.0
-5.4

-0.4
+0.9
+6.7

. . d<p . . . 0.4
..
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,

. . do
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
See footnotes at end of table.



+2.0

+9.4

-4.2

+1.1

Analytical Measures

30

Tobla 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are raver seel; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.

Series

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,

Measure
of
change

Mar.
to
Apr.

Apr.
to

my

1962
May
June
to
to
June July

July
to
Aug.

Aug. Sept .
to
t©
Sept. Get.2

+4.0

+2.4 +10.9

+2.8

-3.7

-7.3

-3.8

+0.7

+0.4
+0.8

-0.2
+0.9

-0.6
+0.7

-0.9

+3.0
+0.7

-0.7
+0.2

+2.7
+0.3

0.0
NA
+0.6
+1 1
-1.8
+0.2

-4.1
+0.1

+3.6
+0.8

-0.1
+0.9
+0.7
+1.3
+1.8
-1-4
+0.3

-7.1
+0.2

1.6
0,7

+3.5
+1.1
+0.9
-+1.2
+1.1
-4.6
+0.7

1.1
1.6

+1.2
+0.7

+0.8
+1.6

+1.8
+1.7

+0.1
-0.8

-0 2
-1.8

+0 3
+3.1

-0 2
-0.7

-0 5
-1.0

0.3

-0.2

0.0

+0.1

+0.2

-0.1

+0.1

-0.2

+0.2

3.6

+0.8

0.8

-0.1

1.0

+0.8

0.9

+0.9

+0.7

+0.2

+0.2

+0.2

+0.2

0.0

NA

1.0
1.2

0.0
+0.6

+0.5
+0 6

0.0
+1 2

+0.5
+0 9

+0.4
+0 7

+0.4
+0 8

0.0
+0 9

NA
NA

3.0

+0.4

Avg.
change, Jan.
1948to
1961 * Feb.

Percent . . 5.6

Feb.
to
Mar.

+2.7

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in

..do
..do
Index of industrial production
Grosi* national product in 1954 dol.^. . . . do
3
Gross national product in cur. dol. . * ..co
do.
Final ^ales (series 49 minus 21 )3
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.. ..do
. .do
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
. .do
..do
54 . Sales of retail stores
55. Index ©f wholesale prices except farm
. . do

47.
50
49.
57
51.

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures 3on new plant
..do
and equipment, total
62. Index of wage and salary cost per
unit of output, total manufacturing., ..do
63. Index of labor cost per unit of outdo
put total GNP3
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, all
. .do
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
. . do
67. Bank ratea on short-term business
3
. .do
loans 19 cities

3.3
1.3
1.4

1.9
1.6

+0.7

-0.7

-o.:

5

+2.2

+3.5
+0.1

-1.4
0.0

-0.1

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

NA

+1.3

+0 6

-0 /

OTHER U.S.- SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship-

. .do
3.7 +11.6 -11 9 +10 0
3 *> -0 5 +1 7 +2 9
. .do
Mil. dol. 58 6 KL98.1 242 o H24 4

-1 1
+0 8

+/ 7

-7 6 -3 Q
+0 6 +1 7
30 7 +123 L -148 4 -QO 1
-2 8

NA
Mfi

NA

89. Excels, receipts or payments in U.S.

332
. . do
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . . 7.2
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
7.5
Ann. rate
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit*^
bil. dol. 5.7
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
and product account3 4
3.2
..do
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent.. 2:5.4
..do
15.6
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to
. . do
29 2
85. Percent change in total U.S. money
. .do
0.22
Mil. dol.
138
93 . Free reserves
Percent..
81 . Index ©f consumer prices
0.3
94. Index of construction contracts,
!
. . do
8.3

+932
-6.4
-0.1

-1.3 +2.7
-6.1 +16.7

-2.9 -0.8
+3.4 -10.7

+8.7
+8.0

-1.5
+4.4

-6.1
-4.1

+7.3

-4.7 +12.8

+6.9 -11.2

-1.1

+6.5

+2.2
NA
NA

NA

+258

-1.1
-40.0
-12.4

+1.7
+CL3 +65." 6 -43.5
+0.4 +H.7 -11.7

+8.3 +144-4
-3.7 +52.3

NA
-52.0
-20.7

-38 1

+e 1

-3 3 +19 4

NA

-16 8

-4 4

-0.4.1 +0 41 +0.13 -0 54 +0 20
-7
+62
-112
-63
-55
0.0 +0.2 -0.1
+0.3 +0.3

+3-5 +10.1

-7 6

-3 3

+2 6

+o 14

0 48
-7
+0.2

+o *;*>

+72
+0.1
-2 5

+0 9

NA

5/
NA

average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision or new seasonal adjustment mad© new computations feasible.
^September to October percentage changes cover part of October only.
Quarterly series. Figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the
figure for GNP (series 49) shown in the column April-May refers to the change from the 1st quarter of 1962 to the
2nd quarter of
 1962.
Figures are the
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table 1.
Anticipated. Percent
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis change from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter, 1962, based on anticipated data, is +0.5.

Analytical Measures

31

Table 3.-DISTR1BUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
"benchmark date that
high was reached

Business cycle peak

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

3d month before business cycle peak

Aug.
1948

Apr.
1953

Feb.
1960

Apr.
1957

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

7
1
3
1

12
1

,

4
1

22

1

2
2

14
2
1
3
2
1

3
4

11
1

2
2
3
1

1
4
1

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2

19
16

1
1
1

4

3
•4.8
0

20

23
0

23
0

2

19
21

*18
0

12
1

1
2
1
3
2
1

23
0

23
4

1

1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

3

1

1

1

2

2
1

1

2 months

4
1
2 '

;

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached

1
1
2
3
3
11
27

1

1
1

9

1
3

"2

1

2
3

5

2
3

*4
4

1
4
4

2
3
3

3
6

11
45

11
27

11
36

11
36

11
27

11
55

Current expansion

6th month before business cycle peak

May
19*43

Jan.
1953

1

Nov.
1959

Jan.
1957

June
1962

July
1962

Aug.
1962

Sept.
1962

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3

17
11
1

19
16

6
1
4
2
2
2
1
2

^6
8

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

1
1

4
4
42
4

5

5
**2

2
4
6

4
6
"3
•
3

1

1
2
2

23
4

23
9

23
0

"3
3

23
0

7
4
6

* 3
3

23
0

6
4

"z
2

3
17
18

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

1

1

1
'

4
2*

4
2
1
5

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2
3
6

5
3

2
3

11
45

11
55

11
27

11
27

1

1

"l

1
2
5
3
11
27

1
I
'*9
11
82

'*6
3
11
27

5
1
3
11
27

All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution. The figures shown are for the month specified but became available the following month.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.



32

Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT

CHART 2 ~k

NBER Leading Indicators

^TJ
(Nbv.)
P

(July)

T

p

percentage
Expanding

(May) (Fab.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

(Oct.)
T

T

P

T

Dl. Av, workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (21 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]

D6. New orders, dur. goods indus. (21 indus.)
[3-mo, interval ]

Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations ^
„.. 602 cos, [4-quarter interval]
... 15 indus. [1-quarter interval ]
...

D33, Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting £;,
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval J;V?

D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
>:/yf
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval ] ::;:-'ff:

D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval]

D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur
(47 areas)--inverted
[3-mo. interval ]
... .............

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

See "Mow to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Analytical Measures

33

DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)

Percentage
Expanding

(Aug.)

P

T

D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 Indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]

D47. Industrial production (24 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]

D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval]

D54. Sales of retail stores (24 typeslof stores)
[3-mo. interval 1

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

Set "Mow to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




If 54

1955

1956

957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

34

Analytical Measures

CHART 3 • DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT

-mmmmm
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

P

•

•

T

(July)

Pii

;••

BSS-

VAV

:Y>:-k S

**^«ti

^ ^ H
.

^s
o:-"!;
-..A'.A-

tt- i ^ ^ ,*^

Ps

y

;;.":A'->:/A

"VAV;

^

— 100

^K ^sft P^

50

w?M :::
JsSp X:<
vX -Av:v': «

,',-:'X'
't,^;":: P'

^SJe*

pated

A nil *.

Change in total carloadings

*-*-«-*

V.?

V'jt AW- /"

^c-

A

>•«

::x':':

i
S

0

I I
M

fe

1
3

i1
l

D36. New orders, dur, goods mfrs. (400 cos,)
[4-quarter interval]

t*Z*

•
.

*

.-%i S:

>/:

'.'?"'*•

<

s

.'.''"':.":'

^Sl
:

A.

b

i
i

tlvA-.v

:7"f"
'•:' .."-x. vX- "•"•

^y^

^4
..::;•;• ;.:"•:

.

".v."/

1
;
^^^ ^ N^- SJSr'
Xf^ 3S=*^

*••« rf?^
[-K-:i>:

fc>t!

!--•—•--•Actual

3S pw

£/*** "•.

Percentage
Expanding

PT

te c
1

D35. Net sales, all mfrs. (800 cos.) j;';
[4- quarter interval]

(May) (Feb.)

PT

•£•-• :.:•'•':••.•'

>.".'/;VV.;;

ifr

(July) (Apr.)

T

|
•i |

1
i ffiffi
•„• slt'S

(Aug.)

P

iSS

*=*** 'Hr*-^ ^||
^-»--»

|
^

100

^

**< ^sS

ff\

50

XVA;

*

5#y

'!/•»
,A, f-

Af

^jOsf.

#:>/y\

\ "''•' '

>i?--J5V i^*
\-

' *'"' 'a»f^

.f"

;fe: >

:VAV:;:

^v*
^..*^*"*v
• \ f

«S&i +*?>••"

>:

1

v-*A

Ts ^

•\v
\ -2s
v

^ jf

D61.

I J :>".-."
_

'•:

.' '

'

/

N ew plan) and equ ipment e xpend. (' 7-22 mdus.)
[1-quarter interval ]

rr~^ >

\

*' \\ , i

V

v

i

%;

k A *1

i

'" ""'i^'
Si/'*'- '

i
X

\Vs

k.
/r

/

,t

/
/

VA>
^^-wA

;V;
::>
.•:'. •''.'

1948

— 100

50

"*

^

— 0

;•:•:' -.;

•*
| ^*V

>

• '• ' vi*

-v"

*

••. • .'• ,

•;?„.

—,

;';"' '• ••':'
^t-i

/?

*•"

'.•*.• ."'./

im

1

*.

*-^ ^-^*

100

£&-**

2?
s

W

;.!v:J:

:••::;

1^

p¥

:V ' ,.;;.-.

>-v •
\

k^" ^
< ^l
1 i
:

vx V ''*"*^^
•* ^C^

lj¥

^fe
..;"..- ... •.

0

Pi

•

D48. Carloadings (19 mfrd. commodity groups)*
[4-quarter interval ]

f
A.
ISl$ \C^x_
>.- •"*$%/[/

?

' '"••;• •-VA'

;^|: ;;';'•

1
8

^

&

i " i^-fc'« '
^

&5w

^\

:

J 0

^

,

nlnlnln

1949 1950

1951 1952

iiliiliiln

3

""r

1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:

Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (July 1962)......
D48 (September 1962),
D61 (Aug. 1962)

Latest interval shown
Actual

2nd Q 1961 - 2nd Q 1962
4th Q 1960- 4th Q 1961
1st Q 1962- 2nd Q 1962

Anticipated

4th Q 1961 r 4th Q 1962
4th Q 1961 - 4th Q 1962
3rd Q 1 962- 4th Q 1962

*lncreas»: of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.




1963

Analytical Measures

35

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT

Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed op latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes

Year and
month

Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)

1 -month
interval

3-mofnth
intertval

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations

a. 602 companies
4-quarter
interval .

b, 15 industries
1-quarter
interval

D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(0
20
companies )
1-month
interval

1959

April
May
July
August
October
December. . . .
...

66.7
73.8
73.8
81.0
45.2
28.6
40.5
31.0
26.2
52.4
52.4
78.6

83.3
81.0
92.9
90.5
73.8
26.2
14.3
21.4
31.0
47.6
69.0
50.0

61.9
73.8
85.7
52.4
40.5
71.4
52.4
9.5
76.2
52.4
42.9
85.7

71.4
100
0.
90.5
76.2
42.9
57.1
31.0
33.3
42.9
57.1
66.7
52.4

21.4
19.0
35.7
38.1
7.
86
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1

31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3

28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6

57.1
28.6
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9

85.7
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1

54.8
95.2
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45-2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4

52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
28.6

33.3
90.5
76.2
81.0
61.9
66.7
76.2
61.9
61.9
61.9
42.9
47.6

11.9
78.6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
r28.6
r31.0
P57.1

19.0
61.9
95.2
85.7
76.2
r23.8
r7.1
p28.6

71.4
57.1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
rSl.O
r76
4.
P29
4.

42.9
61.9
42.9
61.9
38.1
52.4
r45.2
66.7
P

6.
00
64

73.3
60

7.
00
54

26.7
4
6

4
8
52
50
56
58
56
54
50
42
40
4
4
4
8

1960

March
April. . . .
..
>fey
July.
August

November

50.0
4
4

33.3
4
0

23.3
40

66.7
48

4
6
36
40
4
4
42
4
4
39
34
34
34
28
30

1961

March. . . . . .
....
April
May
July
September
October
December

4.
67
54

53.3
58

70.0
65

6.
00
52

27
31
37
4
6
50
4
8
42
51
50
4
7
50
4
4

1962

April
Mav.
July.
September
October




<KO

(NA)

4
8
4
9
50
52
52
4
8
4
0
4
6
45

Analytical Measures

36

Table 4-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p M > preliminary.
:NBER Leading indexes — Continued

Year and
month

D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(82 industries)1
corporations)

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
3 -month
interval

D5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs
(47 areas )
1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

1-quarter
interval

1 -month
interval.

3 -month
interval

1-month
interval

55

86.0
65.1
80.8
54.1
35.3
55.2
81.4
42.4
10.5
53.5
57.0
73.2

86.0
85.5
77.9
70.9
51.2
68.0
66.3
36.0
20.9
26.2
64.0
57.0

50.0
50.0
73.1
50.0
53.8
61.5
50.0
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
57.7

53.8
46.2
57.7
73.1
61.5
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
46.2

91.5
55.3
63.8
83.0
36.2
30.9
45.7
29.8
50.0
17.0
51.1
91.5

80.9
89.4
83.0
87.2
63.8
40.4
25.5
23.4
6.4
17.0
53.2
78.7

28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7

27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8

69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9

53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8

34.0
54.8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2

83.3
26.2
40.5
14.9
29.8
38.3
19.1
34.0
21.3
45.7
36.2
46.8

87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1

96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4

38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65.4

46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7

59.6
31.9
" 80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
19.1

46.8
68.1
61.7
66.0
53.2
61.7
68.1
61.7
80.9
87.2
66.0
38.3

26,2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8

39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1

73.1
34-6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
2
57.7

61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1

57.4
93.6
38.3
51.1
36.2
16.0
70.2
55.3
44.7

68.1
87.2
78.7
29.8
12,8
36.2
U.7
72.3

1959
March
April.
May ..,..„
June
July.
August

72
46

October. . . . .
...

45

December
1960
January

49

March
April
May
June
July
August .........
September. ......
October . . . .
....

1961
January . . . .
....
February . . . .
...

49
43
44

44

April
May
June
July
August

69

October. *

53

1962
January. . . . .
...
February
March.
April
May
June
*. .
July
August
o..
September ..*„..
October

56

51
56

(NA)

•£i

December
•'•The diffusion index is baaed on 86 components through January 1960; on 85 components, February 1960 to November 1960,
and on 82 components thereafter, 19 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 22 components, are shown in
the direction-of change table (table 6C).
^October 18, 1962.



Analytical Measures

37

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Numbers are centered within Intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes

D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)

D41. Number of employees
in no nagri cultural establishments ( 0 industries)
3

Year and
month

1-month
interval

1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

3-month
interval

D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)

1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

D58. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. Indus.)
1-month
interval

1959
90.0
80.0
88.3
83.3
81.7
75.0
68.3
43.3
60.0
36.7
55.0
78.3

July.

October
December

58.3
62.5
75.0
87.5
89.6
58.3
72.9
27.1
41.7
35.4
52.1
91.7

72.9
79.2
87.5
91.7
83.3
75.0
60.4
41.7
22.9
35.4
56.2
83.3

37,5
58.3
83.3
47.9
68.8
39.6
66.7
39.6
29.2
39.6
77.1
41.7

81.2
81.2
77.1
89.6
58.3
66.7
29.2
50.0
45.8
62.5
54.2
58.3

6.
47
84.8
76.4
61.9
81.7
69.3
54.8
45.5
58.1
56.4
58.6
42.4

56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
30.0
20.0
11.7

April
May

90.0
88.3
83.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
65.0
58.3
38.3
45.0
58.3
61.7

80.0
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7

64.6
12.5
50.0
64.6
68.8
60.4
50.0
31.2
18.8
47.9
27.1
20.8

64.6
35.4
43.8
77.1
79.2
66.7
35.4
10.4
20.8
12.5
20.8
12.5

68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
1.
46
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2

37.5
47.9
79.2
54.2
62.5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45.8
45.8
43.8
41.7

60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
45.4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7

33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53.3

11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83.3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3

4.
79
29.2
58.3
89.6
83.3
87.5
75.0
64.6
22.9
87.5
70.8
62.5

29.2
54.2
79.2
91.7
93.8
83.3
100.0
60.4
70.8
75.0
83.3
52.1

58.3
43.8
79.2
27.1
43.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8

35.4
72.9
43.8
58.3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35.4
75.0
70.8
89.6
70.8

38.6
41.3
54.6
59.7
49.1
51.9
r50.4
52.1
55.9
r43.4
r43.4
53.3

33.3
81.7
81.7
90.0
70.0
63.3
48.3
r41.7
p28.3

60.0
75.0
91.7
88.3
80.0
68.3
r50.0
p23.3

18.8
70.8
60.4
70.8
70.8
•62.5
58.3
r45-8
p68.8

33.3
43.8
83.3
81.2
75.0
72.9
r54.2
P56.2

62.5
62.5
62.5
60.4
39.6
22.9
83.3
r58.3
P39.6

60.4
64.6
91.7
81.2
39.6
r37.5
r70.8
p70.8

66.8
r41.3
63.3
r48.8
66.4
47.6
33.0
30.3
34.2

1960

Apr il
Nky

June
July
August
October
December
1961
February
March
April.
{e
fy

July
August

..

1

j

1962
February
April
May
July™
September.
October
December




;

38

Analytical Measures
Table ^-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACT.IViT.IES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT

Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(#00 companies)
4-quarter
interval

Year and
month

D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval

Anticipated

D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval

D48. Freight car load ings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

84.4
S7. 5

75.0

84.4

65.6

71.9

75.0

84-4

71.9

71.9

56.2

71.9

34.4

43.8

28.1

37.5

46.9

53.1

56.2

62.5

59.4

65.6

65.6

62.5

68.8

68.8

(NA)

Change in
total (000)

Anticipated

81.2

Actual

Actual

68.8

Actual

65,6

1959

84

88

82

84

52.6

78.9

-173

76

87

76

84

42.1

84.2

-73

78

82

76

77

57.9

89.5

+8

68

84

64

82

26.3

57.9

-146

61

82

58

76

31.6

68.4

+96

53

74

51

68

31.6

78.9

-103

50

70

50

68

21.1

50.0

-279

60

68

62

68

26.3

42.1

-212

72

82

72

78

36.8

89.5

-28

74

83

73

78

68.4

73.7

+78

82

88

82

86

(NA)

89.5

+125

81

86

78

82

89.5

+62

(NA)

88

(NA)

84

94.7

r-67

80

74

89.5

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

March. . . . . .
....
April
May
JUly

October
November .......
1960
February
March..,
April..,
MaY
July. . .

September
December . . . .
...
1961
January *,
March
April
May
June
July

,.
„.

fU»pt*»mher t - , •, r »
October* «
November «....„.
1962
March. . . . . .
....
April
May
julv.
•October




(NA)

71.9

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES Rf SING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
A.-(Dl) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
3 -month spans

1961

1960
21 industry components

§ CLH S
"o ii

1-3
1
-P

1
>

1
O

& S ha
S* §

<U
1
C

1
£>

1
SH

o :§ Q A & £

•H

bD

CX

-P

t*
«!

>> £ H
S 5 >?

1962

C / j ^ h t ^ C H b C C i - P ^ o
cd
( U j i l P * J i l S d ^ ^ o o ( i >
• ^ f e S < S ^ t ^ - ^ C O O S Q
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
l
l
>» C (H tiD Oi
jtf & - P > O C j O ^ F - i
o o a j a J a j j j j O u n l ^ ^ ^ J f l J
-3 (0 O S Q » ^ ^ S < x ! 2 » - 3 t - » * J j c o
>

O

gi 3 % si & a
i i i i

§ g 1 &
i i i i
-p > o PJ

1
,8 £ S 5 I

H

50 31 7 21 67 55 69 17 14 24 10 2 14 55 95 90 81 93 69 79 45 79 81 81 21 19 62 95 86 76 24
All manufacturing industries

- 0

4-

4-

-

-

o

0

+

-

-

0
-

+ o +

+

_
+

*
+

_
-

+
_

-

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

- - 4 - 4 - O O - 4 - 4 -

+

4-

+

+ o -

+

tiD

CL -P

>

O

i i
^H<? <si £bo aa
H
Ill 5 a «
7 29
- -

DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products

=

+

+ o

-

-

4-

o + o

-

-

-

-

- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

44-

o
_

_

_

-

_

--

+

4+

o - -

+
+

+

-

- + +
- - 4 -

+
+
+

+
0
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+

+

-

-0

+ 0 -

+

+
+

4-

+

+

_

_

o

_

_

_

_

0

-

-

-

+ 0
4- +

4-

-

4o

+
4-

4-

-

-

+

+

+

0

+

-

+

+

+
+

4_

_

_

+
4-

4-

-

-

_

-

_

—

0

+

+

+

—

O

+

—

O

Chemicals and allied products

0
4-

o
-

-

4-

+ +
+ O
4- +

Rubber products
Leather and leather products

_
0
0

_
_
+ - -

4-

4+

- - + +
+ *f- + +

+

+ +
+ +

+

- + + o o
+. - + 4- +

-

+ - +
- + +
- - +

-

•F
-

-

-

Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

4-

+

+

4-

0

+

--•
4+

+

-

+

+

0

-

+

-

- +

40
+

+

NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products

Paper and allied products.

-.

.

* *

+ * rising; o « unchanged; - - falling.




+
+

44-

-+

+

-

-

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
4-

_4-

0

O

+

-

0

+

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

_-0

+

_

-

0
4-

+
-

+ +
+ +
- -

4+
O
+
+
4+

VJ

+
+

o

-

-

4-

+

_

-

_

Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

\0

Analytical Measures

40

r- +

+ (+ ++++

i++ 14 ' 4

m

+ i i t + t i

II +++++ + I Q I I I+

+ I

l | + + + i + + + l + i + +

i

O J +

en

l

I

I

i

i + i

i

i H-

I + +

i 14444 i

+ + I + 1 I 1

I + + I + l I

<n+

i + i i i + i

+ + + ) ) + (

| + i

•3

+

1 1 + 4 4 4 4

+ I I + + + +

0 + 0 1

4-

+ + + + 4 I I

I+H- + + + + + I + + + I +

*
3

+

+ 1 + 1 + 1 +

I I + + + I + + 1 + + + + +

NO

4

+4

&

+

+ + + 4

C-

| ++ i

I + I

TO

8
o

l
I

I

+ 4 + + +

l

l

l

1 1 +

l

+

l

+ + + + + + +
+4

+ 4 + 4+

|

I

t

I

l + +

+ + + + +

44

| + + | | | | + | + + | + |

I l l + l + t

l + l l l + l l

I + + + I 4 4

1 1 1 1 + 0 1

1 1 4 1 + 1 1

+ + | + | + |

1 1 1 + 1 1 1

I I I I + 0 +

1 4 4 1 4 4 4

\O

I

£

£
*=

dsg-unf

g?
£
t
CO




l + l + l l l

l + l l + l l

i +

t

I + + I + I +

+

-

J
u ^

l

l + l l l l l

I + + + I I I

4 4 I I I + +

I I I + + I 4

t i l l . 444

+ 4 4

1

t

t

+ + t +

l + l l l + l
+ I I + + I I

+ + I I + + I

R

l l

l

1 1 1 + 1 4 1

Q

+

I 4 4 4 1

+

l

l

i + +

l

I

i

I

I

1

(

1

1

1

1
O -P

4 4 l » 4 l t

+ ( + + + ( +

1 1 + 4 4 1 1

•H r-t
bo
0
•H
H
H

ro rH
P ««-•
O J>
-H ed

nd gJ

f S
.-v
TJ O1 ^t
(U <U +3
bp
W

III

°ll
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rt cd *H j

t>i &£l
(H
t*

•*

(U >

FH

O

FH
I.H^

El

U -P

U •

41

Analytical Measures
oaa-das
AON-3ny
+OQ-TTIJC

1

dag-uT\j»

j

3ny-jCBW

tO

1

(

1

t

t

1

1

1

1

I

l

l

l

l

l

l

l

1 +

1

1

t

1

t

1

<M

TTVP— jdy

rH

1

1

I

I

I

1

1

t

1

1

1

1

f

I

(

1

f

1

1

t

1

1

1

1

1

H

UTIP— *IBW

<H

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

t

1

1

1

1

1

1

t

1

I

t

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

AW-qej

O

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

t

1

1

1

1

1

1

t

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

t

1

1

ady-uBf

r\

jBW-oaa

UJ
u^
UJ

D_
O

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«o

i

1 1 1 1 + 1 1 1

i +

qajj-AON

O

l

j

+

UBf-^oo

vfN

C V +

+

+

i

i

i +

i

i 4

l

o

+

l

l

1

1

1

+

1

1

+ + »

|

|

1 + 4 -

i

i

1

1

I

I

1

+

( + + + + + +

|

i

+

I

-

i

i

I

^
+

1 1 + 1 1 1 1 +
I + + +
+ + +

I

+

I

I

I

1

I

+

I

03Q— dag
AOfj-Sny
^.oQ~"[np

a.
P
CQ

P

U

o:
uj

aa

e

^ +

I + + + + + + +

+

1

1

1

1

1 + f

! + ( + + + + +

dag-unr

QL
uo
UJ

W

VTJ+

, + + + + +!, +

+

,

|

|

|

, + +

, +

3ny-J^Bi^

a

+

to+

++

+ , , ,

+ + + + I I 1 +

+ + + + ) +

tnp— .idy

JSW-oaa

I
u

^ +

+ + + + + + ++

+ + + + + + + 1

+ + + + + + + +

qajt-AON

i

+

.idy— UB£

g

I

H

A*"B^— qa,ij

i
^

j>

g +

-H + + + + + + +

+ + + + +++

+ + + + + + + +

+ + ++

I

^ +

+ + + + + +

1 4-

£

+ + + + + + + +

^ +

+ + + + ++

osa-dag

+ 0 + + I + + +

AOM~ Sny

W

I

+

vO

1

dag-unf

G^

1

3ny— A*BPJ

^ +

+ + + + +

i

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|

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• H +
IPv

+ I

I

+

I

H

unr-^^j

W

je^w-qa^

z

H

wT

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o
UJ

u

UJ

+
1

+

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+
I

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+ +

1

1

1 + +

I

++

+ + + + + +

+ 1 0 +

+

I

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+

+

j

i

i + +

i

i

|

+ +

I

I

I

I

l

+

l

l

t

l

+

l

l

l

+

I

J

I

I

I

l

l

l

l

l

l

l

| | i + + + i +

I

I

+

+ +
+

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+

I
I

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O

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I

1

+

1

(

.

1

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I

+
+

1

+

1 + +

,

+

,

,

,

+

JBW-oaa

l

l

l

l

l

I

l

l

l

l

l

l

t

qaj-AON

COJ

1

1

1

1

1

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4

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I

1

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+

+

+ , + +

l

(

:

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+

+

l

l

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+

|

l

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l

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l

+

I

I

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, , +

+

I

l

| +

+

+

1

+

| +

+ + +

( +

,

£ +

+

|

1

UBf-^OO

I+ + +

i +

CNi

LU

I

I

£ 0 1

.idy-uBr

I

I + + + + + + +

+ + + + + ++ +

1

-H+ + + + + + 1
+ + +

1

I + +

I I

+

I

1

+ + + + + + +

£ +

"^

I

++

UBf-3.00

*/»

+

1 + + +

+ + + + + + +

1+

+

1

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, + + + + +

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unf-JT=n

ON

1

, + ^

+

+ + + + +

! + (

+ + ,

1

,

+

+

I
I

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+

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+

I

| l |

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l

I

+
+

+ +

,

+

I

^

i

0

+ .
+ + |

, + + + , +

I

+

+ +

I
|

I
+

, ++

8

•i

5
u_
o
o

us try component

w

•H

- . - §
bpCJ

. , _ ) . . +

& . . - o * P ,
3

.

*

«

.

,

( r

H

^) *H ® i—1

. . ,0 . . S -P
CQ *H ( 1 ) M 3

cv




(3
CD
0

+>
W

(^

K^

C -p &'-—• ^
Cd *H S
^ 3 O O O >

pica
*HrH
4^0}

.H (-Tnj cd P ft) rH S

O
PUbO
Qpl

bp

f> >>ff!
-H r-l TJ 0)
bD-PP
C T j ? - l ( B O C ' H p ! C l O
W W
tMQ)
*HO,OoJO'Hi-<
C

H (U. ed ;C -i-i O

OO'i-f^Opcd^

Table ^-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RfSING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.-(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices

3-month spans

>
_O
S

0
o
Q

C
at
*"3

£)
O
ft»

fr FH
CL
S ^!

Lgi

I

1962

1961
A
CJ
CO

-P

o

<s

4 i
H

o<
CO

g « a <I I

3 i f i*
S £

Jun-Sep

+»
O
O

^ >> C H
S <! S *-a t-a
I
I
1
1
I
fc

K/Ut, A,,«
i*jnjr-4»ug

C ,0
t-3 P*
I
i

I^tr-Jun
Apr-Jul

1960
13 industrial materials components

•p >
t

}

O

a
a.

§ fr. S | £
€ <| 1

»-o
1

l

1

a
> o
§ CO "^ £ a
I s O

f3 f *? •?
« S &

8 1 1 3J fe

S

<<

iIg 3 8
bO

D<

46 54 54 46 46 50 46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46 58 62 54 42 50 /12 42 23 23 46

All industrial inatei*ial.fi *
Copper scrap (lb*}.».

. . .

*
-

Steel scrap (ton) . . . . . .
Tin (Ib )
Zinc (Ib )

*

- + o + o

0

*

Cotton (ib } 14 niRrlcpt flv^rspe
Pr int cloth ( yd ) average . .
Wool tops fib j
Hides (Ib. ) .
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib ) .
Tallow (Ib . )
rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
for October 18.




-

+

_
- - - - - -f

_ + + - - + +
+ + •*• + o o o o o o

+ +

^ +

_

+ + + -

o

o

o o o

0

0

O

0

o o

c

o

-*--*-

0

o

0

o

O

-

- - + +

4-

+

O

_ .

-

-f

+ + +

-

+

•*•

+

+

+ •*- +

+

Series components are not seasonally adjusted,

+
+

+

+

--

-

- o o

+ + -H

+

+

+

O

0

-

--

0

+

+

O

O

O

O

O

0

O

0

0

-

O

+

-

+

o

0

-f

+

-

-J-

+

«-»
^

n"
•*- + + .

0

0

0

s
n>
en

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
E,-(D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment insurance, State Programs
3 -month spans

-p

fsl

1961

1960
26 area components

&3

1

£> CO

3

-P

1

t>

1

O

1

S

1

,0

1

I

o ^ o ^ £ S - §

1

f-t

^4

<

1

>i

1

£

1

H

^ ^i si ^t s i ^ i ^ i ^ ic *s a ^ ai
i
i i

1
ft

bD

1962
F 3 , Q f c fn
> > C 3 r - 4 t « ) & - P > O
Cd <D cfl Cu (d ^ d ^ D O O 4 )
t ^ f e g ^ S ^ ^ ^ C O O ^ Q
1
1
t
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
C ^ 3 f H ^ l > s f l r H W ) P <
M f t - P > O
d o
^ t o , o S Q i ? ( S S § 2 t - » i ? ^ t 5 i

C J , Q h ^ F > » C H H D & - P > 0

( 3 , a h f c ! > j C ! H b D & - P > O
oj Q J J f i & 3& ' zi 3 & c> o
o
<u

-P • > O C 3 ^ > ^H fn > > G H
o . Q f l j t t i
Q j j d C i i n i c J
J
O S o * - i t t 4 s < s l 2 h ^ | ^ s

S » ? ^ < i t o

<

79 83 26 40 15 30 38 19 34 21 46 36 47 47 68 62 66 53 62 68 62 81 87 66 38 68 87 79 30 13 36 45 72
+ NA M NA --

+ ---

+ -

NORTHEAST REGION
<y

16
11
1
21
4.
8
23

Boston
Buffalo*.

+ +
+ +

+

+
+ + +

+

+
+
+ +
+ + +
•*• +

+ + •+ +
+ + + + + +
+ + + +
+
+ _4- + + _4- + + _ _ _ + ,
+ +

New York
Philadelphia*
Pittsburgh**.
Providence**.

+

+ +
+ +

+

+

—

— +

+

4 - - f + - +

+

+

+
+
+

+
+

+ '+

+

4+
+

+

+

+

+
+
+

+
+

+

+

•

-t--i-

+

+
+
+

v
<
r^
>**

NORTH CENTRAL REGION

3
18
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9

+ N A NA. N A Cine innat i
Cleveland

.

*

+

_

—

+

+
-

_

_

—

—

—

—

- +
* ^ _

_

_

o

-

r»

+

—

—' —

+

+

+

+

+
-

+

4,
4-4-

+

+ +
4,4,

Detroit**. . . * » . . » . . *

Milwaukee
Minneapolis ...
St Louis
*

+

....
......

*
.

*.

.

.

*
. *

+
+
+
+

+ +
+
+
+ - - + - - - - - - +
+ _ _ 4 - _ « _

-NANANA

-

+

+

+

+

+
+ + _
_ _ - ( - _ ,
_ + + _

-

-

+ +

+

+

+'-

+

+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ +

4-

+

+ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +
+

— +

• +:

+

+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+ 4- +

+

+

+

+
+

+
+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+
44-

+

+
+
+
+
+
+

4- +
+
+
4-4+
+

+
+

+
+
+

-

+

+

+

4-4-

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

- - - - -

+
+

+

+

V)

SOUTH REGION

20 Atlanta.
12
i7

+ + _ + _ _ _ - + _ _ _ +
-NANA.NA

-

-

-

-

-

-

+ +

-

+

+

Dallas
Houston

+

+

+ + + + + +
+ + +
+ +
+ + +

--

WEST REGION

2
Por 1 1 and
6
1 Q Op« + + T o

- = rising; o - unchanged; + = falling.
Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
NA » not available.
*Denotes areas of substantial unemployment ( percent or more) in September 1 6 as designated by BES. **Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or more)
6
92
and persistent unemployment in September 1962 as designated by BES.
^•The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.




*—
s
o

c
•-I
C/i

Table 6.-DrRECT!ON OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.—(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments

1-month spaas
30 industry components

1960
PJ.Q

h

£<

>»

1961
faD

r-f

£

Q«

-P

>

O

Si

a > a J O ) , g j a , j i ; 3 3 3
<Ji £ ,2
Q ^ f e S ^ J S ^ i o - s a j t / j O S :

Q

•&

** - h • >»

tf

r

^i • f ii ' £i 9 £ ' 3 •?' 3 "S o £ a S g £ 3 £ ^ f
i i i i i i i MI 1 1 1 1 1 1
o C J , Q f-t h >» a «-t tai a -p > a a ^ ^ ?-. >> (
a)

eo

i-s

1962

t

i -ft • -P 1 >
O
QJ
0
0 ft)
CO O S Q

! i its i

a> jj Q, a; -

fe

2

<

S »•

cf Lo '! h

h

^> ' C <-H

M ft i -p

>

o

3 £ £ 3 £ .2 3 !i « ;i < S £ S
I 1 i i i i i
i i i
0 (3 j Q h f H >a £3 H M
ft-P
>
a«££*£g^3i«.S£

57 83 53 55 50 30 35 30 22 30 20 12 33 33 75 67 85 87 58 53 37 65 70 53 33 82 82 90 70 63 4.8 42 28
+

+

O +

-

-

O

-

-

-

-

-

+
_

+ _ - _ - _ _ _
+ + + O _ + + O O_ + O
_ _

+

+

Furniture and fixtures

--

+

+

+

+

+

0-

+

00

+

-

+

0

+

0

+

+

<-

o

+

-

+

--

__++++

-OO

+

O-

+

+

O

A

_

_

_

_

_

_

_

_

_

_

+ -i

- + - • * • • * • o. o+
+

+

+

+

O
_

+ o-c
+ + +

0

+

0

+

+

+

r
_

4-

+

=
+

_

_

_

_

_

0

0

-

+

-

+

+

- -

. O +

O

+

O

-

+ 0 - +

-

-

0

+

-

4-

+

-

—

± + -

+ + +

-

—

Instruments and related products

- -

-

.

+

+

-

0

+

+ + + + + + _

^<;
«-»
o

+

O -

4-

+

-

- o +

-

O

O

-

0
O
+ 0

0
+

O

+

+

+

Apparel and related products
Printing and publishing

O

Petroleum and coal products
Leather and leather products
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate.
Service
Federal government
State and local government

-

-

-

- + + 0 + + + 0+

-

+

+

+

O

-

-

-

+ + -

-

-

+

+

0

-

0

-

O + +
. + +

-O
+ -

- - O
- - +

+
-(-

O O + + +

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

OO

-

+

-

--

-

-

+

-

-

--

_ _ - _ + +

+

+

- +

—

+

+
-

+ +
+ 0

+
0

0

+
-

+

- +

-

-

+
O

+

0 . o
- -

-

- 0 - -

+

+

+

-

-

- * - o o - + o o o - o - - -

+
+

T O

- o -

—

+

+

+

-

+

+

OO

+

O

+

-r

-

+
+

- +

0

+

+ + o -

T

O

O

+

O

_ _ + _ _ - - - * - o o - o + + + + +

+ - rising; o * unchanged; - * falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.




Toble 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.-(D47) Index of Industrial Production
1-month spans
1961

1960

24 industry components

1962

C ) , Q J H £ - i > j p 5 r H b O Q 4 - P ! > C J
O

&

ft

• I*

t-i

>>

fi

H

bpO«-p

>

Q t - s f u S - s i J S H s i - a - ^ C O O S

4 £I £ I3 T 3 3I 3 I c 3 < S ; 1i S
£
1
o1 ti ft t* T > > d i ~ 1 b o c 1x - p >
t-t
( 1
< u lc u f ^t J S < l« S£ *l ^^ oS<3J t<O Oj S
a o
^ t £
Q
^
,

o

G

ft

1*

^ > > c 3 i - l b f l f t - P

>

65 12 50 65 69 60 50 31 19 48 27 21 48 29 58 90 83 88 75 65 23.88 71 62 19 71 60 71 71 62 58 46 69

DURABLE GOODS
. . * .

+

. * • * *
4

4

4-4-

+

4-

4

4

o

4-

-f-

+

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Primary metal products

+

+

+

+

+

-----4-

4=

4-

4-

-

+

-t-4+ 4 -

-

4-

+

4-4-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - +

+ +
+

4-

4-

n

r>

Clay, glass , and lumber.
Store clav and ?lass

+

+

+

+

4v

—

+

4~

4-

4-

+'

4 4 4 - 4 4 -

•

0

—

n

—

^3
m

,

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

Miscellaneous

+

+

* • • *•

4 - - -

4 - 4 4 4 - 4 -

+
+

NONDURABLE GOODS
4

+
+

+

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

- 4 - 4 - 4 - O

+

+

+

+

+ +

_

+

4 ' 4 - - 4 - - 4 -

- 4 4 - -

+

- 4 -

- 4 - 4 - - N &

- 4 -

+
+ 4,

+

Printing and publishing.

0
,

+

-

-

+

4-4—
—

o

4 - Q
O 4~

+
+

4*

+
4-

—

+
4"

4~

+
—

4 - - N A

4-

NA. NA
+

- 4 - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - N A .
O 4 - - 4 -

+

4 - - 4 +

+

Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastics products
Food and kindred products

.. . . . .*.

+

+
+

+

+

+

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4

•*•
+

+

4 4

4 4 -

+

- 4 - 4 - 4 -

_

_

— +

-I-

+

+

O O

0

"^

— -f

+

4 - - N A

_ _
-

4-

4 - - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 O

4-

- 4 -

+
- 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 0 4 -

- O 0 4 - - 4 - 4 -

4 - 4 - 4 4 4 -

+

+

- 4 - - 4 - 4 -

4 4 - 4 -

-

4

4 - 4 / o N f i . N A

-4-

- +

- NA.

MINERALS
Coal

- - + + -+ - « - ^ + - +
- - • * • - + + + - + + +

+ +

+

+
+

+ 44-4-

4 4 - 4 - 4 -

4-

_

+

+

4-

+ = rising; o - unchanged; - » falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA = Not available.
1
The direction ofchange is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
e used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
AUUUD^J



n

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE !N SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.~(D54) Sales of Retail Stores

3-inonth spans
1961

1960
g , o j ^ f c > i C i - i & p p * - p : > o

24 retail store components

S£,£3;&2ZM&8ga
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
^

'

o

i

^

!

1962

S-ajjj &!2'§'3'::?§''ooS
.

i

i

i

i

t

i

i

t

i

i

i

)

58 38 48 79 54 62 21 46 42 46 46 44 42 35 73 44 58 54 71 83 35 75 71 90 71 60 65 92 81 40 38 71

All retail sales

+ + +

+ + +

_ _

+ + +

+ ---

Department stores

+
+
+

_ + - * - _ _

+
+

+

4
+

- +
+ +

+
_

_
_

+
+

+
_

+
+

_ _
- _

+ + + + + + + +
. , . _ _ ^
.
_ + +
+ + + + + +
_ +

o

+ _

+

+

+ ,{._

+

+

Women' s apparel stores

*

«

+
+

+
-t+

4

+
+

+
+

-

_
_

+

4_

4

4 4 4 - - - 4 4 - 4 4 4
+

-

-

4
+

4

4

4

+

4

-

+
+

+
_j-

+

+
+

-

- -

+
+

+
_

-

4

Shoe stores

4
4

+
+

O

4

4
+

+

4
- t

4+

_

+
+

4 4 -

_

71

0

+

-

4
4
4 4 4

+

+

4

+
+
4

+

-

+
4-

+

4

- 0
444
4

4

+

4 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - +
4 4
- - 4
_ + +
+
+

4

+

4

4 4 - 4 - * -

4

4

-

-

4.

+

4

-

4
4

-

^<

+

+ 4

4

+

D

4

Appliance and radio stores
+

4-

-

Hardware stores

-

+
-

4

4

4

4-

4

_
-

_

_

4

4

_

_
4

4 4

4 4 4

0

4

_

_

_

_

_

+

+

+

_

+

+

+

-

4
+

4
-

-

-

+

+

+
+

V)

Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Jewelry stores . .
Liquor stores

C

.

*

Other nondurable soods stores
rising; o = unchanged; - • falling.




•*•
+
-

+
_

+
-

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
_

+
_

+

+

0
+

_

- - 4 4 4

+ 4 4 4 4 4 -

-1-

+

+

-+ +

4

+

4

Q

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+
-f-

+

+
4

+
+

4
+

4

Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.

47

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak tevels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

[ IT | JTJ TT7 | I I I I ! I I I II I | 1 1 I I IIndex

• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 * present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

«- Reference trough dates

Index
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus
bldgs.2

Reference trough dotes

105 r-

1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.

.'•*
TOO*

MOO
-> 80

29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local btdg. t
permits
It
it

L

95

-| 150

140

150
130

140
130

24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus.

.** ,"

120

120
110

110

100*

80
90

) I I I II 1 I I MI I I I (II I MI I1 I I I 1 MI I I II M1 I II

12

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

111 1 t I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I
J 1 1( M
+30
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs

-12

*Reference peak level. For series with o "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is $et at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for thlis month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
For the
 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.



Cyclical Patterns

48

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.

CHART 4

•••••^•••••••^^^••••••••^•••^•••••••^•••••••^^••••••^^•••^•••••••^•^•MBnMMBB^MMHnM^Bi^BHaMM^BMMMMMBI^B^H

Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle*
PERIOD COVERED

M I I I I I | M I I I I I I M I I I I II

• Nov. 1948 * Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
» May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index

: rn

II I I I II I I I I ( I I IT I I I I 1
Reference trough dates

150
140

Index

Reference trough dates

13. New business incorpb
rations
17. Price per unit of
labor cost

130

120

110

MOO

90 L

180
170

23. Industrial materials
prices

160
150

19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

140
130
120
110
*100

90

80*- I I I I I I I I M M I I I I M I I I I II 1 I I I I M I 1 I I I I i | I I

-12

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

I ( I I I I I 1 I I I I I M I I I I I I I t I I I MI I I I I I M I I I I I M

•12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I1* or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at *100W. For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
Seo table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.




49

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak dote preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 3D months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

1 III IIM II M MII M fI II M

• Nov. 1948 • Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957-Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
» May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index

I I I M I 1 I 1 1 I j I I MI j f | 1 ! I I1 I I II

Index

- Reference trough dotes

43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]

Reference trough dotes

105

41, Employees in nonogri.
establishments

*100

95 L

110
r

105
55. Wholesale prices, except

MOO

100*

95 L

J

I I M i I I i I N I M I) I I I M I M I I I I 1 1 I M M I | 1 I \ J 1 I

-12

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

95

I i I I l i t 1M M I I M I I I I I I N I 1I I M M I I I I I ll I I M I

-12

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100",
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
^See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown .in table 7.




50

Cyclical Patterns

CHART 4

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
••MMM««MiHM>i^^a^MaHi^H**MMM^B^B^HM«MMMaaaM^MMnMMMMaaMWMV>MaM^BM^MMMBMHaMMMMaMMMni^va^^^^^^^^MM

Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

Index

Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 . Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 11958)
' May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

51. Dank debits outside NYC

100*

100*

95

! i i i i Mi i l i i i i l i MI l Mi l I i l l i i i I l I I l i Ml l l
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

*Referenc« peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I" or "2*, the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100",, MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in tablo 7.



Cyclical Patterns

51

COMPARISONS OP REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

I I| I I I M I I II I II I I I II

• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough! Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 • present1 (Reference trough; Feb. 1961)

Index

Reference trough dates
62* Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, afl mfg.

Index
Reference trough dates

120 -

no -

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans

64. Mfrs. inventories,
all mfg. industries

90 *I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I 1 I I I I I I l! I 1 I I I

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of *!" or "2", the figure for the reference peak Is
self at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C*
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
o

 quarters anticipated.
Last two


52

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of-

1958
1961

1949
1954

Index

! II {I | II 1 I II I I M M I I I I I 1

Index

-<- Specific trough dates

9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and
indus. bldgs.3

F 1 1 I I I ! I I I I I M I ITTTI 1 1 i
—*- Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek,
prod, workers, mfg. _

105

100*

29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
'
24. Mfrs/ new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus

200 r

180

160

120

MOO -

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of *1" or *2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at *100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
3
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.




53

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measure^ from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

TJ1

Index

From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—

1949
1954
Index

1958
1961

11 I 1 1 I I I 11 | i I I I I 1 J I 11 I | i I
-<- Specific trough dates

17. Price per unit of
labor cost

\A/\

110-

100*

*100

200
180

23. Industrial materials
prices

160
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

140

120

- 120

MOO

100*

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of *1" or *2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100"* For series with on MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix Cl$ee appendix B for specific dates.
2
$ee table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




54

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

I I I I I [ 1 i 1 I i i i i i i \ i i i i i i | i 11 \ I

From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of~

Index

•<- Specific trough dates

1949
1954

f III 1 I I I l 11 I I I I I I I I I I M I I i i i I |

Index
US

—<- Specific trough dates

43. Unemployment rate/ total
[inverted]

41* Employees in nonagri.
establishments

no

105

MOO L
135
47. Industrial production

130
125

120

115

110

105

100*

"100
0

I I I 11I II 1I I I I I I I I I M I I M I I I M
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

I I 1 I 1I I M i M 1 I I 1I I I I I I I I I I I j I

0

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

* Spec) fie trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or M2*, the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*4 For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
!$ee appendix B for specific dates.
2$ee table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




Cyclical Patterns

55

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

I I I I I M I 1 1 I I i 1 1 I I I I I I I 1I

From specific trough dates to 30 months later*
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1958
1961

1949
1954

Index
135

Index

-<- Specific trough dates
130

"

125

I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M HI

120

•<- Specific trough dates
50. GNP in 1954 dollars

130

115

125

110

49. GNP in current dollars
120

105

115

100*

110

105

MOO

150
53. Labor income in mining,
mfg., and construction

140

130
r
125

130

52. Personal income

120

120
115

110

110

105
100*

MOO
I | I 1 1 I 1 l 1 l 1 I.I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I i
0
+6
+12
+18
+$4+30
Months from specific troughs

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of M" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100".
MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
!See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




Cyclical Patterns

56

Table /.-.PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See also
MOD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
Months
beginning in—
after
reference July July Nov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb.
1958 1961
1954
1949
1933
1938
1924
1927
trough1 1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2. Accession rate manufacturing

19
18
18

NA
99.0
46.7

97.0 99.8
46.7 109.8
53.0 119.8

6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started,.
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2.
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business
failures ( inverted )
19. Index ©f stock prices, 500 common stocks....

99.3
88.4
66.7

100.0 100.7
103.6 98.2
70.4 93.3

176.1 123.8 104.4 110.9
121.9 105.4 118.6 100.1

110.0

17.8

77.0

133.3

105.3

67.8

91.8

95.4

206.4 118.0
167.4 134.2

93.4
79.0

18

39.7 117.1

19

97.0

19
L9
19
19

95.5 102.8
88,0 125.9
88.4 166.7

36.4 97.5
19.5 135.8

19
19

80.9

69.5
39.0
37.1

19.6 129.3 105.3 221.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
105.1 146.1 200.8 29.7
69.6 96.3
66.6
94.5

93.3
NA
75.7
98.5

136.2

107.7

109.7

140,0 134-5

99.3

111.3
92.4 86.9 88.7
98.5 102.8
109.5 102.1
143.4 195.5 118.0 105.0
135.8 115.5 102.1
90.3

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, maehin19

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

135.4

116.2

115-9

19

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

113.1

115-5

19
19
19
18
15
19
19
19

88.3
NA
104.5
NA
NA
94.2
NA
103.2

97.1
NA
102.0
115.7
NA
117.1
111.7
104.9

104.9
NA
115.1
110.3
NA
115.1
113.5
105.4

80.3
0.2
62.3
63.7
NA
47.8
61.2
70.4

99.0
72.3
101.5
102.4
NA
99.0
100.7
102.9

106.1
120.4
120.1
122.8
112.3
126.9
119.1
114.0

103.4
62.4
105.0
111.3
107.5
119.2
112.3
110.0

101.0
72. 3
101.2
109.0
104.0
114.7
109.7
105.3

101.8
08.9
108.3
110.0
106.4

19

69.9

94.3

92.9

84.8

15

NA

NA

NA

NA

19
18
18

76.7
NA
NA

94-4
NA
NA

90.9
NA
NA

90.0
73.8
57.4

18

87.3

.92.8

29. New private housing units authorized by
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
31. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54 . Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than f o.vm products and foods

96.8 111.4 104.9 101.9

114.7
110.3
104.1

99.7

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
64. Manufacturers ' inventories, book value
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities ( Q)

120.2

67.3

NA

106.6 111.9

101. a

97.8
98.1 102.0 102.7 102.8
96.9 120.5 104.6 95.2 103.6
114.0 169.1 133.3 11,6.1 111.6
94.6 116.3

105.4

NA Not available.
'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Exeept for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted aeries.




88.3

111.0

93.3

Cyclical Patterns

57

Table 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64,
and 6 ) the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series
6,
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough month is
used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough quarter. See
also MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Months
after
referi ence
trough1

Percent change from reference trough of expansion
beginning in—
July
1921

July
1924

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Aug.
1954

Apr.
1958

+1.8
+21.7
+3.2

+3-4
+11.8
+16.0

+208
-10.5
+8.0

Feb.
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
NA
NA
NA

+6.1 +1.7
+117.4 +50.2
+70.9 +69.0

-6.4
-4.0
+17.1

+9.5
-2.2
+78.3

+3.5
+41.7
KL48.5

19

+192.5
+71.1

+5.4 -6.5
+44.7 -24.0

+89.7
+29.1

+62.3
+46
4.

+90.4
-15.3

+33.2 +22.0
-11.7 +23.7

+20.4
+10.9

18

+45.8

+68.7 +26.8

+48.9

+55.9

+54.5

+40.6

+37.0

+17.7

19

7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2.,

19
18
18
19

2 . Accession rate manufacturing
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted),
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, dur-

+11.8

+31.0

-14.4

+6.6

-8.7

+18.5

+40.8

+7.0

19
19
19
19

+16.2

+43.4 +14.4
NA
NA
+40.3 +53.3
+14.8 -3.1

+168.1 +26.6
NA
NA
+43.7 +20.5
+ 0 4 +47.0
6.

-5.1
+10.6
+38.0
+80.7

-3.0
+2.7
+54.5
+15.5

+15.5
+4.6
+35.2
+17.4

-9.9
+5.4
-6.7
-5.3

+41.9

+38.6

+20,8

+11.2

+20,0

+1.5

14. Current liabilities of business

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks..,
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, ma-

NA

+42.1
+66.3

19

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

19

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

19
19
19
18
15
19
19
19

+28.1
NA
+53.3
NA
NA
+21.5
+24.0
+7.9

+11.8
+9.3
NA
NA
+25.0 +24-5
+9.9
+14.4
NA
NA
+5.9
+20.9
+12.3 +10.8
+4.9
+5.4

+17.4
+17.7
+31.0
+26.3
NA
+25.2
+24.4
+24.6

+10.5
+28.8
+50.0
+16.3
NA
+18.5
+13.0
+24.3

+11.7
H50.5
+31.4
+27.0
+14.0
+32.2
+24.5
+U.3

19

+10.9

+3.2

-0.2

+16.5

+2.2

+17.4

15

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

19
18
18

-14.8
NA
NA

-$.2
NA
NA

-7.7
NA
NA

18

-19.0

+5.8

+24.9

29. New private housing units authorized by
NA

NEER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted )
49. Gross national product in cur. dollars (Q),
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q),
51, Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers. . . .
...
54. Sal£s of retail stores . . . .
.. ..
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities

+7.1
+5.3
+ 0 9 +27.9
4.
+17.8
+15.7
+13.4 +11.7
+8.2
+10.8
+17.3 +18.3
+12.5 +10.0
+10.9
+8.9

+3.9
+19.6
+16.4
+10,9
+8.5
+12.0
+9.6
+8.2

+5.8

+2.4

-0.1

+33.3

+17.2

+10.0

+9.2

+22.7
-5.5
+24.6
+2.3
+20.0 +22.3

+6.6
+31.7
+36.2

+1.3
-4.3
+11.0
0.0
+29.0 +15.1

-13.6

+15.8

+10.4

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
64. Manuf acturers ' inventories, book value
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities ( Q)

-3.1

NA Not available.
•'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




+28.5

-4.8
+6.3
+7,9
+.
04

Cyclical Patterns

58

Table 9.-. PERCENT OF "SPECIFIC" PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM "SPECIFIC" TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE "SPECIFIC" TROUGH DATES IN THE: 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53), the
figure for the "specific" peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9,
13, 17, 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the "specific" peak (trough) month is used as the
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 arid 50) is the "specific" peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Months
after July
"specific" 1921
trough1

July
1924

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Aug.
1954

Apr.
1958

Feb.
1961

Percent of "specific" peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1, Average workweek of production workers,

99.3

21

19. Index of stock prices 500 common stocks

NA

95.0

93.3

71.7

93.9

NSC

16
20
18
23
21

45.5
83.0
NA
84.8
70.0

107.7
95.4
NA
122.1
86.1

108.2
101.8
NA
NSC
60.9

14.5
61.2
NA
31.3
68.1

68.4
74.0
NA
67.1
84.1

68.5
63.5
105.2
130.4
131.1

23

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2..

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

104.4

103.4

115.2

21

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

73.4

90.0

19
16
19
18
15
21
19
20

88.3
NA
102.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
102.0

98.5 106.0
70.9 102.9
103.1 118.2
97.5 114-4
NA 109.5
99.7 118.9
94.6 122.8
NSC
102.2

103.4
64.5
106.3
110.9
106.5
111.1
108.1
110.7

100.9
71.7
Id0.7
107.7
105.6
109.4
103.8
105.3

101.6
84.9
106.9
110.0
106.4
109.5
10^.1
104.6

99.3

98.5

NSC 93.9 112.3
NSC 130.2 92.5
91.3
99.1 100.8
162.1 117.3 97.1
63.2
92.7 88.8

24, Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units
authorised by local building permits
NEER ROUGf&Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
43 » Unemployment rate total ( inverted )
49. Gross national product in cur. dollars ( ) .
Q..
50. Groas national product in 1954 dollars (Q)...

21

19. Index of stock prices 500 common stocks. ....

NA
NA
102.0 115.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
109.3 103.5
NA
NA
NSC
NSC

80.3
NA
65.6
63.7
NA
62.1
51.9
70.4

Percent change from "specific" trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2..

96.5 105.6

+15.4

+4.8

-2.5 .-3.8 +12.3

16 H19.9 +71,7 +40.1

20
18
23
21

+18.9 +27.6 +11.0
NA
NA
NA
NSC
+25.0 +43.3
+71.9 +16.8 -14.7

+6.0

+3.6

+4-7

+4.9

NSC +37.3 +18.9
+50.2 +50.5 +119.8
+B.2
NSC +43.1
-1.8
+7.3
-7.3
+5.8 +§.1
NA +11.4
NA
+6.3
+7.9
+105.7 +22.9 +57.0 +82.3 +41.9
-a .9
+83.3 +35.8 +94.6 +21.2 +17.1

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin23

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA +165.8 +74-9 +39.5 +23.6

21

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

+28.1 +11.8 +11.4
NA
NA
NA
+50.0 +25.0 +24.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+6.3
+24.3 +13.4
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
+18.6

+17.4
+19.0
+42.9
+26.3
NA
+26.3
+45.9
+24.6

+10.5
+29.2
+55.8
+16.3
NA
+14.2
+29.4
+24.4

+11.7
+123.7
+31.4
+18.7
+12.2
+25.2
+40.5
NSC

29. Index of new private housing units

NA +18.9

+2,0.8

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47* Index of Industrial production
49. Gross national product in cur. dollars (Q)...
50. Groes national product in 1954 dollars (Q)...

19
16
19
18
15
21
19
20

+7.1
+52.9
+18.3
+13.9
+10.6
+12.5
+17.0
+14.4

+5.3
+38.4
+17.8
+11.5
+10.4
+10.7
+12.8
+10.0

+3.9
+21.5
+16.4
+10.9
+S.5
+10.0
+10.7
+8.6

NA Not available.
' NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^sed on period from most recent "specific" trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The number is the same for each expansion. "Specific" trough and peak dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Exeept for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




APPENDIXES
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designation. Therefore, when appendixes are propped from an issue, the continuity is interrupted.
However, appendixes that are dropped will be listed with the latest date of
publication.
"Appendix E.—Summary Description of |X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program", not included in this issue, was included in March 1962.




Appendixes

60

Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates

Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)

Trough

June 1857.
October i860
April 1865
June 1869
October 18?3
March 1882

May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902

August 1904
Juno 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921

Trough from
previous
trough '

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854,
December 1858
Juno 186.1
December 186?
December 18?0
March 1879

Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)

30
22
46
IF
34
36

XXX

XXX

48
30
78
36
99

40
54
50
52
101

10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24,
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

May 1907.
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44
IQ
22

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
1?
40

July 1924
November 192?
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953.

H
13
43
13
1
11

27
21
50
80
37

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
93
45

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May I960

I
!
9
9

35
25

58
44
34

43
34

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22"cycles, 1854-1961.
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

XXX

„
„
„

18
8
32
18
65
38
13

2
54
3

46

5

48

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
X
4
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
^9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Sourcei National Bureau of Economic Research.




Appendixes

63

Aopendix C.« AVERAGE PERCENTAOE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 53 MONTHLY AND
10 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

T/5

for Average duration of run
MCD
C
I
CI
MCD
span

!c

T/5

.64

.43

1.49

2

.88

2.53

1.77 13.55

3.29

.88

.2?

.40

.34

1

.34

7.84

2.16 13.55

7.84

.99
1.19

-49
.28

.84
1.12

.58
.25

1
1

.58
.25

6.48
8.79

2.61 13.55
2.29 18.56

6.48
8.79

.28
7.17
7.49

Monthly series

.17
6.91
7.23

.23
1.31
1.46

.74
5.27
4.95

1
5
5

.74
.92
.96

4.48
1.47
1.70

2.18 19.89
1.39 7.59
1.52 5.96

4.48

1.52
I'32
i.22
4.97
$.88

2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21

3
3
4
6
5

.69
.79
.96
1
f )
.99

1.89
1.71
1.67
1.581.49

1-51
1.57
1.47
1.51
1.41

7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.67

4.08
3.06
2.93
2.44
2.40

4>.21

4.72

6

(M

1.61

1.50

5.38

2.76

1.03
1.29
.88
.82
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15

.68
.9
4
.52
.88
.98
.65
.81
1.60

1.51
2.63
1.69
.93
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72

2
3
2
1
2
3
3
1

2.91
2.41
3.44
3.92
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37

1.95
1.93
2.27
2.92
1.62
1.70
1.67
1.77

17.11
15.40
15.50
9.31
17.78
17.00
22.00
23.57

5.28
6.91
6.13
3.92
4.08
5.09
9.50
3.37

I

C

CI

I

.84

MCD

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories, all
manufacturing industries
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industri$s.
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE

86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
, . . 3.72
3.39
3.02
3.52
94* Index of construction contracts, total valuo.. 8.29
8.06
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement,.. 25.35 24.44.
15.57 15.00
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi*29.19 29.33

2.30
2.55

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. OECD, European countries, index of Indus. prod+ . . 1.32
1.29
.98
47. United States, index of industrial production. 1.32
125. West Germany, index of industrial production.. 1.61
1.79
1.70
128. Japan, index of industrial production
, . . 2.09

.82
.87
.98
.93
.64
.80
.63
.72
T/5

Quarterly series

CI

T/5

for
QCD
span

QCD

Average duration of run
CI

I

C

QCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602

11.15
7.66

7.00
4.54

7.59
f-35

.92
.85

1
1

.92
.85

2.82
2.83

1.48
1.65

5.17
3.64

2.82
2.83

7.73

5.06

£.01

1.01

2

• 51

2.83

1.42

5.67

3.85

5.78

3.73

4.17

.89

1

.89

2.89

1.49

5.50

2.89

1.44
49* Gross national product in current dollars. . . . 1.88
.
57 Final sales (series 49 minus 21) .... ....... r. . 1.60

.65
.69
.82

1.13
1.59
1.45

.58
.43
.57

1
1
1

.58
.43
.57

3.19
4.25
4.64

1.50
1.42
1.46

5.10
6.36
7.29

3.19
4.2<T
4.64

3.61

1.49

E.94

.51

1

.51

4.64

1.55

5.67

4.64

1.02

.60

.84

.71

1

.71

2.68

1.31

7.29

2.68

2.96

1.94

£.37

.82

1

.82

2.68

1.55

6.38

2.68

18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corpo*NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, totial
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
See footnotes on following page.



64

Appendixes
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C

1

Not computed for series when MOD is "6" or more.

The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editorj National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, eh. 17, "Electronic
Computers" and Business Indicators" by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 196l).
"CH" is the average month-to-month (for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
"MOD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.)* 2-month Kpans
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MOD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
MOD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QCB" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. 3t Is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than tho irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/G" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans_ and for spans of the period of MCD,
When MOD is "6", no I/O
ratio is shown for the MGD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run Is ahovn
for the seasonally adjusted series GI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MCD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly scries, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.




Appendixes

61

Appendix B.»"SPECIFIC" TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
"Specific" trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. "Reference" dates
are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole.
This table shows, for selected
leading and coincident series, the specific dites related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
"Specific" trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series

Feb.
1961

April

1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

March

1933

Nov.
1927

July

July

1924,

1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, prod, wrks., mfg. Dec.* 60
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... Apr.1611
13. Number of new business .incorpoJan. ' 1
6
17, Price per unit of labor cost index. Mar. ' 1
6
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Dec. '60
24-. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .
Oct. '60
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Dec. '60

Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. ' 9 Jan. '38 Jul. '32 Apr. '28 Jul. '24 Feb. '21
4
Jun . ' 58NSC

Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58

Aug. ' 9 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul . ' 24Mar. '21
4
Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul. '32

Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28

Jun. '24 Jan. '21
NA
NA
Oct. '23 Aug . ' 21
Jun . ' 24Jul. '21

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Aug. '54 Oct. ' 9 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28
4
4
Sep. '54 Oct. ' 9 Jun. '38 May '33 NA
4
Mar. '54 Oct. ' 9 May '38 Jul. '32 Nov. '27
4
2ndQ '54- CndQ ' 9 2ndQ '38 IstQ '33 NSC
NA
NA
rd
4
2ndQ '54 f i Q ' 9 NA
4
Mar. '54 Oct. ' 9 May '38 Mar. '33 4thQ '26

Jul. '24
NA
Jul. '24
NSC
NA

Jul. '21
NA
Apr. '21

4
Aug. '54 Oct. ' 9 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 NA
May '38 Mar. '33 NSC
Jan. '54 ursc

NA
NSC

NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54

Sep. '39
ffeb.'49
May ' 9 NA
4
Jun. ' 9 Apr. '38
4
Jun. ' 9 Jun. '38
4

Feb. '58 Jan . ' 54
Apr. ' 9 NA
4
Feb. '58 NA

IA

NA

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4.1. Number of employees in nonagriculFeb. ' 1 Apr. '58
6
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted] May '61 Aug. '58
47 Index of industrial production . . . . '61 Apr. '58
Feb.
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
IstQ '61 IstQ '58
IstQ ' 1 IstQ '58
6
50. GNP in 1954. dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
Dec. '60 Feb. '58
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
Feb. '61 Apr. '58
54-- Sales of retail stores
Jan, '61 Mar. '58

4thQ '21

NA

2ndQ '24 2ndQ ' 21

NA
Sep. '21

"Specific" peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series

May
I960

July

July

1957

1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1, Average workweek, prod, wrks., mfg. May '59
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... Apr.'591
13. Number of new business incorpoApr.'59
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59
23. Index of industrial mat. 'prices. . . Nov. '59
.
2^. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery 'and equipment industries.. Dec. '59
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. -permits. Nov. '58

Nov. '55 Apr. '53 ISC

Dec. '36

Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 NA

Mar . ' 56NSC

Mar. ' 6 Jul. '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
4

Feb. '56 NSC
Oct. '55 Jan. '51
Jul.'56 Jan. '53
Dec. '55 Feb. '51

Jul. ' 6 Dec . ' 36Jan . ' 29Oct. '25
4
NA
NA
Jun. ' 8 NA
4
Jun. ' 8 Feb. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
4
Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25
Jan . ' 48

Nov. '56 Feb. '51 fA
Feb. '55

NA

Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23

Dec. '19
NA
Jul. '19
Apr. '20

WA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

fflA

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4-1. Number of employees in nonagricul-

Apr. ' 0 Mar. '57 May '53 jTul.'48 Jul. '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26
6
NA
Ian. ' 8 Jul. '37 NA
4
jrul.'48 May '37 Jul. '29 Mar. '27
4thQ ' 8 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29 NSC
4
NA
NA
UhQ ' 8 NA
4
$ep. ' 8 Jun. '37 Aug. '29 2ndQ '26
4

43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60 Mar. ' 57 Jun. '53
4-7. Index of industrial production
Jan. '60 Feb. '57 Jul. '53
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53
2ndQ ' 0 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53
6
50. GNP in 1954. dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
Oct. '60 Aug. '57 Oct. '53
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
May '60 Jun . ' 57 Jul. '53
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60 Jul . ' 57 Jul. '53
NA Not available,
NSC
•'•Tentative turning date.




$ep.'4S May '37
Sep. '37
NSC

No specific cycle related to reference dates.

Sep. '29 NA
Sep. '29 NSC

Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
IstQ '24 NA

Jun. '23
NA
May '23
NSC
NA
NA
NSC

NA
Jul . ' 20

Appendixes

62

Appendix C-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 53 MONTHLY AND
10 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES

i/c
Monthly series

CI

I

C

1/5

for
MCD
span

MCD

Average duration of run
CI

I

C

MGD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
.40
• 47
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
5.31
6.03
30. Nonagrieultural placements, all industries.... 3.41
3.14
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
11.94 10.46
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
19-43 17.91
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemploy6.12
6.98
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
5.00
poodp industries
5.58
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery
and equipment industries
6.07
5.55

.24
2.08
1.35
5.45

1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92

2
3
3
3

.95
.92
.55
.76

2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49

1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80

9.S2
8.35
8.67
7.59

4.26
4.58
4.53
5.16

4.88

3.67

5

.81

1.66

1.49

7.10

3.3?

3.16

1.94

2

.97

1.86

1.53

9.28

3.61

2.00

2.50

3

.75

1.94

1.48

10.64

3. 34

2.19

2.53

3

.73

1.68

1.47

12.82

3.56

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial

14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with, liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price p©r unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
23. Index of industrial materials prices

12.37
6.37

11.94
5*94

2.75
2.19

4.34
2.71

5
3

.80
.79

1.62
1.59

1.49
1.37

7.56
4.09

7.12
3.39

2.36
2.01

3.02
1.69

4
3

.71
.67

1.82
2.29

1.69
1.67

10.14
11.46

5-23
4.46

3.90
3.04

3-44
2.57

1.67
1.30

2.06
1.98

3
3

.60
.65

1.93
2.19

1.53 12.43
1.69 9.31

3.70
3.50

16.32 16.05

2.81

5.71

6

(l)

1.57

1.42

5-32

2.22

17.30 17.36
.93
.74
2.58
1.90

3.26
.4
4
1.49

5.33
1.68
1.28

6
3

2

(*)
.73
.9
7

1.54
2.52
2.40

1.39
2.12
1.73

6.21
3.94
13.55

2.82
4.68
3.36

6.17

5.53

2.76

2.00

3

.66

1.90

1.61

11.55

4.63

11.30
2.15

8.12
1.39

7.20
1.52

1.13
.91

2
1

.77
.91

3.18
2.61

2.01
1.84

9.94
11.46

3.59
2.61

.39

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment..
27. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 6 months or longer
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started....
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
by local building permits
13. Number of new business incorporations

.22

.29

.76

1

.76

3.41

2.04

10. U

3.41

,41
4.73
5.80

,32
3-46
4.62

.22
2.91
3.26

1.45
1.19
1.42

2
2
2

.72
,64
.67

1.94
2.44
2.05

1.62 15-73
1.68
7.6?
1,38 10.50

3.44
3.48
4.37

8. 28
8.56

3.45
3.55

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force
43 » Un©rap3 oyment rats , total
»
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in

51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52. Personal income
,
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products arid foods

See footnotes at end of table.




5.63

2.80

4.12

.68

1

.68

3.47

2.44

8.28

3.47

3.28

2.10

2.26

.93

1

.93

2.30

1.40

8.13

2,30

1.32
1.56
.69

.82
1.42
.43

.88
.70
.54

.93
2.03
.80

1
3
1

.93
• 58
.80

3.92
1.82
3.39

2.92
1.55
1.69

9.31
10,64
21.29

3.92
4.32
3-39

1.12
1.58

.69
1.43

.84
.56

.82
2.55

1
4

.82
.70

3.63
1.84

1.80
1.67

13.55
8.77

3-63
3.56

.30

.11

.27

.41

1

.1
4

5.22

2.53

12.85

5.22

Appendixes

65

Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS ORNBER
(NOVEMBER 1961 TO DECEMBER 1962)

Series

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Arfr. May
1961 1961 1962 1962 1962 19(62 1962

4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
89.0 106.1
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
unemploy. insurance State
103.5 128.9
9. Constr. contracts awarded for
commercial and indus. bldgs.... 95.4 84.4
84.6 100.3
14. Cur,, liabilities of bus', failures 106.1 95.0
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over.. 95.4 90.1

105.2 118.2 98.1 8 6 8 90.5
).
136.9 111.4

99.8

9(8.2

Value of commercial and indus.
constr. contracts (component
of series 10)
Value of privately owned public
works and utilities contracts
(component of series 10)
Index of wholesale prices, all
manufacturing (component of
series 17)

July
1962

Aug.
1962

Sept. Oct.
1962 1962

85.9 101 8 136 6 92 3

82.7 83.9 101 0 86 0 77 3

90 1 i m #

111.4 113.1 113.4 1Q9.6 96.9 103.2

90.2 99.0 92.4
71.6 114.9 136.7
75.2
91.4

92.3 100.5

105,5

87.6

86.3

9.
79

-] 00

ft

95.3

90.1

97.5

98.7 98.8 99.8 100.3 100.9 100.4 100.3 100.9
108.9 112.5 1 4 8 115.7 122.0 111.1 93.0 83.9
0.

100.0 99.9 99.9 99 9 99 9 99 9 99 9 100 0
99 8 100 0 100 1 99 9 100 1 100 2 i on 9 100 1

98.8 102.7 107.5 96.9 111.7 97.2 101.1 103.8 98.8
77.4 115.0 154.8 50.2 108.7 122.3 46.5 99.4 104.0

95.9 146.8 718.0 76 2 220 8 51 6
91.9 117.8 9(4.5 88.2 156.3 82.8

79 2 100 7 84 0 90 0 98 9
8.
6 8 99.1 98.8 9o'.8 100.3

l8o.5 80 0 125.6 9 4 7 94 5 229.2 68 6 67 7 93 2 82 7 68 6 115 3
(.
;94.5 96.2 100.1 1Q1.1 102.5 103.3 93.9 93.0 101.5 103.7 109.5 101.4
93.9 101.5 108.7 919.9 99.9 100.4 99.3 96.6 98.6 100 1 98 7 102 9

75.3

60.3

78.1 101.9 1112.3 130.2 122.6 117.0 111.5 129.1 108.9

99.8 99.9

Dec.
1962

91 1 88 8 106 6

94.9 83.8 86.7
47.8

Nov.
1962

83.5 71.6 100.9 1C18.4 110,8 98.3 113.7 117.1 106.6 110.3 95.6 84.6
3118.1 93.1 110.1 103.7 104 7 104 3 100 1 95 3 90 1 95 9 84 6 i on "3
1 0 . 103.6 113.6 109.1 95.7 96.3 85.4 103.4 94.2 95.0 106.7 94.8
,18

18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
of sales, all mfg. corp.1
97.5
98.6
25, Change in mfrs.1 unfilled or2
ders, dur. goods industries ... 100.3 100.7 99.8 100.3 100.3 919.7
30. Nonsigri. placements, all indus.. 90.3 85.2 81.8 77.6 8 . iqo.2
88
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
farm products jand foods
99.9 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.2 ido.2
100.2 100 1 99.9 99.9 99.8 100.0
82. Federal cash payments to public. 103.1 99.1
83. Federal cash receipts from pub.. 98.8 103.5
90. Defense Department obligations —
90.1 98.9
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total
90.8 100.3
92. Military prime contract awards
68.6 115 3
125. W. Germany, index of indus. prod.. 109.5 101.4
128. Japan, index of indus. prod
98.7 102.9

June
1962

79.9

98.7 1 | 3 106 7 99.7 111 1 113 6 109 6 112 9 95 0 83 9
C8

ioo.i 100.1 100.3

1Q0.2 99,9 99.9 100.0

99.9

99.9

99.8

60.3 46.9
99 3 99.9

These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
Some of the series above are also adjusted for trading days.
For this reason, the original observations divided by the seasonal fajctors given above will not yield the seasonally adjusted figures shown in table 1.
1
Qnarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
2
The seasonal factors are applied to the unfilled orders series; tHen the change in unfilled orders is computed.




Appendixes

66

Appendix F.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961

Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index
of industrial
production

50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1

43. Unemployment rato

51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Retail
sonal
debits
sales
outside income
NYC

4

Fob. 1 94 5«0e t . 194 5
Nov 1948-Oet. 1949
July 1953- Aug 19 54s
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Fe b . 1961 .
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar eontractions
4 contractions since
194-8

-31.-6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

IMA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-14.1

+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0

-31.4
-8.5
-9.2
-14.1
-6,9

NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-2.3

-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-1.1

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1

+8.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.7

+2.2
+3.8
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8

-5.7

-16.0

-2.6

-2.9

-3.1

-2.2

-2.6

-6.5

-16.0

-2.5

-2.9

-3.6

-2.3

-3.8

-8.8

-2.6

-2.2

-0.8

-0.2

1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937. . .
1938-Feb. 19454

Oct. 1945--Nov, 1948 5
Got, 1949- July 1953 . , .
Aug. 19154- July 1957
Apr, L9$S«May I960....
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expans ions
4 expansions since
1945

41 Employees
in ri onagri, establishments

4.0

2 -a n
^.l
8
1.9
3

0.0
11.2

-11.9
a
5-5
-4.1
25.4

ao.o

1.1
4.0
2.6
4.2
5.1

3.3
7.8
6.0
7.4
6.9

+3.3

3.6

7.2

-3.6

+3.5

4.0

7.6

-2.1

+3.3

4.1

7.2

Percent change; Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions':
Reference trough
to reference peak

S

s
+7.9
s
+2.3
3

NA
NA
NA
-31.6'
-10.4

Jan. 1 920- July 1921
May 1923- July 1924
Dot. 1926-Nov. 1927
Auf . 1 929-Mar . 1933
May 1937- June 1938

July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June

Change
Rate at Hate at
in rate, peak
trough
peak to
trough

3

43. Unemployment rato

51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Resonal
debits
tail
sales
outside income
NIC

47. Index
of industrial
production

50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1

49 GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1

NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30. 4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

HA
+12 ,.4
+12 ,,6
+42 ,,1
HA

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+63.1
+103.3

-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

!1.9
8
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2

+21.9
+50.3
+19.4
+25.9

+3,3
+27 .,4
+13 -.5
+12 ,,2

+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.8

+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.9

+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5

+0.3
-5.2
-1.8
-2.3

3.3
7.8
6.0
7.4

+17.4

+35.5

+12 .,8

+27.9

+33.8

+27.0

+20.8

-3.7

7.1

+13.0

+26.8

+12 ,,5

+21.6

+24.4

+21.7

+16.5

-2.6

6.3

3.7

+13.0

+23.9

+12 ,,8

+29.4

+39.0

+25.6

+23.4

-2.0

6.7

3.9

Change
in rate, Rato at Rato at
trough pc&k
trough
to peak
s
-8.7
2

a

a

3.2

8

1.9

3 SQ .pft>
3>

11. a
1.1

3

3.6
2.6

4.2
5,1
3,3

For aeries with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series
(series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnote to appendix C.
MChe most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and Itst
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
^Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
*World War II contraction or expansion period.
^Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




COMPLETE tlTLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do rtot necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M* indicates monthly series and "Q* indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by *EOM* or *EOQ*.
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ* indicate* that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-*
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all Industries (M).«Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly claims for unemployment Insurance, State pro*
grams (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods Industries
(M).*-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, flopr space (M).-*F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. N»wly opproved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corporations (Q)«--National Industrial Conference Board
12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(E00).*—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Nation*1 Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and
over (M),—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment b>
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate'prof its after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale prices of
manufactured goods Index to wage and salary cost per unit of
output index) (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change In book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
material (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*21. Change In business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Tndex of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24, Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
Industries (M),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
from special tabulations of the Office of Business Economics
25. Change In manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
26* Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).—National Association of Pur,chasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
27. Buying poltcy-capitol expenditures, percent reporting commit*
merits 6 months or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census




30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).--Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
31* Change in book value of manufacturing and trade Inventories,
total (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment

15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees In nonagrlcultural establishments (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46* Index of help-wonted advertising In newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product In current dollars (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Grass notional product in 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).~ Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q)-—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (ratio of index of wage and salary disbursements In manufacturing to Index of industrial production, manufacturing)
(M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
63. Index of lobor cost per unit of output, total grass national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP In 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64» Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, oil
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt, (EOM).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base)
*67. Bonk rates on shorMerm business loans, 19 cities (Q).-Bo«rd
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D. C.

PENALTY FOR PRIVATE UMC TO AVOID

PAYMENT or PO*TAQK, »KX>
fOPO)

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

15 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE

7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

81. Index of consumer prices (M).~ Department of Labor, Bureau, of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cosh payments to the public (M).«Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment
83. Federal cosh receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Department*
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of \he official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment
85. Percent change In total U.S. money suppfy (demand deposits
plus currency) (M),—Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General Imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88* Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments In U.S. balance of payments
<Q).~ Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. D*fense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustmen-t by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense D*porfment obligations, total (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract a words, U.S. business firms (M).«> Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Fre* reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).—F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account ((^.--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and'Development
122. United Kingdom, Index of Industrial production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, Index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau of
Statistics, Ottawa
125y West Germany, Index of Industrial production (M).-Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
126. France, Index of Industrial production (M).—Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127. Italy, Index of Industrie! production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).-See series 47.




DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D* preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for
Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).-Purchesing Agents Association of
Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).« First National City Bank of
New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., no
seasonal adjustment
D36, New orders, durobU manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight corloodings (Q).-Association of'American Railroads; no
seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components, Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.