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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert G. Dederick, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Acting Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Morton Somer—Seasonal adjustments
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under the
auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The Committee consists of
the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department of
Commerce
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $60 domestic, $75
foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic,
$6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available
upon request. Address all correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

concerning subscriptions to the Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to the Superintendent of Documents.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

BCII

iii

METHOD Qt MiESENTAHON
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

NOVEMBER 1 9 8 1
Data Through October
Volume 21, Number 11

Chart

Table

Al
A2
A3
A4

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

'

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

Bl
B2
B3 .
B4
B5
B6
87

Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
39

74
77
—

ill
Cl
C2
C3J

- -;i.

.•"••

V

•

DIFFUSION
AND RATES Of CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is
necessary in the transaction of the public
business required by law of this Department. Use




of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of
Management and Budget through September 1,
1983.

BCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8

AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
QCDand Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (October 1981 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1981 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (April 1981 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

97

105
110
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and

Changes in this issue are as follows:

revisions made by

1. The Index of spot market prices, raw industrial
materials (series 23), is now compiled by the Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc. This series formerly was compiled by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
Data from the new source are calculated for the same industrial materials and by the same formula as the earlier data.

source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may

In BCD, data prior to June 1981 for the price index
(series 23) and the individual industrial materials prices
shown in the direction-of-change table for diffusion index
967 (page 79) represent averages of Tuesday indexes or
prices for each month. Beginning with June 1981, the data
represent averages of daily (excluding weekends) indexes
or prices each month.

result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of

Further information concerning these data may be obtained from the Commodity Research Bureau, Inc., 1 Liberty
Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10006.
2. Series 723 (Index of industrial production, Canada)
has been revised by the source agency for the period 1971 to
date. This revision reflects the annual updating of basic
data and the computation of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from Statistics Canada, Prices Division, Ottawa
K1A 0V5.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 340,
341, 910, 913-917, 920, 930, 940, and the inventory-sales
ratios shown on page 105.
4. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
29, 32, 43, 48, 73, and 92.
The December issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on January 4.



i
n

indexes, etc.

SIX BEA PROJECTS
FOR ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

A monthly report for analyzing

economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts and
forecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about 110 business cycle indicators is assigned
a three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns.
This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other important economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons.
About 300 time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions and
prospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data,
seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful information. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS

A reference volume con-

taining valuable background information for users of Business Conditions Digest.
This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time series
presented monthly in Business Conditions Digest. Included are series descriptions, historical
data, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tables
show detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal and
algebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH

A report for the study of economic

trends over a long span of years: 1860-1970.
This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevant
statistical time series in easy-to-follow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basic
research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together in
one volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tape
file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase.

COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The source
statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of
time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL A D J U S T M E N T PROGRAMS—Two variants of the Census computer program
measure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularly
useful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X - l l variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as
multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
INDEX PROGRAM—This program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summary
measures of the properties of each index.
T I M E SERIES PROCESSOR—This program, through simple commands, performs a variety of
arithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data.

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing
current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,500 statistical series and
significant articles analyzing economic developments. These data and analyses include such areas as
the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment
expenditures, regional personal income, and the input-output accounts.

BUSINESS STATISTICS
For further information (including prices and ordering instructions) on any of these items,
please write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
20230.



A biennial reference volume containing

statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide the basic
data for the series.

METHOD OF PRESENTATION

adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
This report is organized into two major parts.
which contain considerable variation due to the
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
number of working or trading days in each month.
series which have been found to conform well to
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
adjustments where they have been made.
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
Most of the series in this report are presented in
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are the official figures released by the source
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
but which do not conform well enough to business report, a number of series not ordinarily published
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in seasonally adjusted basis.
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data, MCD Moving Averages
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the approand defense-related activities, and international priate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
transactions and comparisons.
It is the smallest span of months for which the
The two parts are further divided into sections
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
begin with 1956, but those for the composite
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
format which covers only the period since 1969.
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
shading which indicates periods of recession in
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
general business activity. The tables contain data
MCD of 1.
for only the last few years. The historical data for
The charts in this report generally include
the various time series are contained in the 1977
centered MCD moving averages for those series
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
In addition to the charts and tables described
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
above, each issue contains a summary table which
variation about the moving averages and to provide
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
observations for the most recent months.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other Reference Turning Dates
information of analytical interest. An index appears
The historical business cycle turning dates used
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
in this report are those designated by the National
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
relationships or order. However, all series mark the approximate dates when, according to
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
the range 1 to 199.
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
Seasonal Adjustments
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated.
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
The historical reference turning dates are subject
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations changed as a result of revisions in important
resulting primarily from normal differences in economic time series. The dates shown in this
weather conditions and from various institutional publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has
are usually accounted for by the seasonal designated turning points for the 1973-1975 recesadjustment process; however, a separate holiday sion and the 1980 recession.



Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N. Economic
\Process
>^

Cyclical
Timing

\
N.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)

II.

EMPLOYMENT

PRODUCTION

III.
CONSUMPTION.
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.

FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

AND

AND

UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 s^ms}
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series}
Consumption
(2 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real Income
(4 series)
1 industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

V.

INVENTORIES

VI.
VII.
PRICES, COSTS, MONEY
AND PROFITS
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
(26 series)

Backlog of
Investment
commitments
( I series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(5 series)

Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)

Business
Investment
expenditures
{1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

AND

INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
U series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money fiows
(3 series)
Reai money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
interest rates
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(2 series)
I nterest rates
(2 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

1 nterest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)

Commodity
prices
( 1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

Trade
(1 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(I series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

1nventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series}
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows/
(2 series)

Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Com pre hen sive
employment
(4 series)

Com prehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

Consumption
and trade
(3 series)

Business
investment
commitments
( 1 series)

Profits
(2 series)

Money fiow
(X series)
Velocity of
money
(X series)

Unfilled ot€iBn
(1 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(I series)
interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)

(8 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
N.

Economic
\Process

Cyclical\
Timing
N.

LEADING (LJ
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)




EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(I series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)

inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in t i m i n g .
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period can
be determined by inspection of the charts, where the
1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession are
shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference
cycle chronology.

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
each component series is standardized: The monthor intentions. Indexes based on responses of
to-month percent changes in a given series are
business executives about their plans and
divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
series are prevented from dominating the index.
This section covers 111 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 22 indicators used in the series.
term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak
This section also records rates of change for the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
(For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 rates of change for the same aggregates are
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct
In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
together, these additional indexes include all 12 cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.



Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This part is divided into six sections which cover in the physical volume of inventories held by
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series private business. The former include all private
measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
Some of these series are very comprehensive, tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
labor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
Section A l shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
national product—personal consumption the factor costs of the goods and services proexpenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving,
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (6NP) is the market major expenditure components of GNP
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from
personal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably
less personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
Disposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedof personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prodpayments to government.
uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1969.
The group of series on wages and productivity
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
cluded.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES




4

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1969) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1969) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or4-quarterspans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r 


2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1

Series title

Timing
classification 3

Unit
of
measure

Pwcwrt change
Aug.
to
Sept.
1981

Average
1979

1980

1st Q
1981

2dQ
1981

Aug.
1981

3dQ
1981

Oct.
1981

Sept.
1981

Sept.
to
Oct.
1981

1st Q
to
2dQ
1981

2dQ
to
3dQ
1981

i
£

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910. Twelve leading indicators
920. Four coincident indicators
930. Six lagging indicators
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability..
917. Money and financial flows

1967=100 ..
L,L,L
do. . . .
C,C,C
Lg,Lg,Lg . . . . . . d o . . . .
...
...
...

145.1
166.4

131.2
140.3
176.8

135.7
142.3
185.4

135.6
142.3
186.5

132.6
142.4
193.5

133.3
142.6
193.5

130.4
142.0
194.2

128.1
140.7
186.2

-2.2
-0.4
0.4

-0.9
-4.1

-0.1
0.
0.6

-2.2
0.1
3.8

910
920
930

92.9
107.2
101.0
90.8
135.6

94.1
106.0
103.1
94.3
139.5

94.3
105.1
104.0
93.9
138.4

93.1
102.5
102.8
NA
138.9

93.6
102.4
102.9
93.1
139.5

91.0
102.1
102.1
NA
138.8

90.0
99.9
100.9
NA
138.6

-2.8
-0.3
-0.8
NA
-0.5

-1.1
-2.2
-1.2
NA
-0.1

0.2
-0.8
0.9
-0.4
-0.8

-1.3
-2.5
-1.2
NA
0.4

913
914
915
916
917

39.4
2.7
2.9
518
2.3
1.1

-1.7
-0.4
-0.3
-18.0
-0.3
0.

0.3
0.1
0.
-5.3
-0.6
-0.2

0.8
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1

-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
-5.3
-0.2
0.1

1
21
2
5
3
4

0.384 - 0 . 0 4 4 - 0 . 0 3 5
-5.9
110
-1.8

•0.038
-6.3

0.008
-0.8

60
46

140.1

-1.8

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L LL
L,L,L

do.
do.
do.
do
do.

...

96.8
113.5
105.9
91.7
145.5

Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg. 2 ..
2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg. 2
5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted 4 )
*3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv. 4 ) 2 ..
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg. 2

L,L,L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,Lg,U

Hours
do. . . .
Percent
Thousands. .
Percent
do. . . .

40.2
3.3
4.0
381
1.1
2.0

39.7
2.8
3.5
485
1.7
1.5

39.9
2.9
3.5
413
1.3
1.4

40.2
3.0
3.3
412
1.2
1.3

39.8
2.9
3.2
434
1.4
1.4

40.0
3.0
3.2
417
1.4
1.3

39.3
2.6
2.9
492
1.7
1.3

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed 2
46. Help-wanted advertising

L,Lg,U
L,Lg,U

Ratio
1967=100...

0.786
158

0.520
129

0.487
127

0.449
119

0.457
118

0.463
119

0.419
112

U,C,C
U,C,C
C,C,C
L,C,U

A.r., bil. hrs..
Thousands. .
do. . . .
do. . . .

169.63
93,648
89,823
26,461

169.84
93,960
90,564
25,718

172.22
94,692
91,232
25,670

170.97
95,507
91,546
25,741

170.05
95,412
91,910
25,932

171.29
95,574
91,901
25,931

167.76
94,959
91,948
25,925

170.18
94,880
91,743
25,632

-2.1
-0.6
0.1
0.

1.4
-0.1
-0.2
-1.1

-0.7
0.9
0.3
0.3

-0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.7

48
42
41
40

U,Lg,U

Percent

59.25

58.51

58.43

58.75

58.47

58.60

58.13

58.03

-0.47

-0.10

0.32

-0.28

90

5,963
5 8
2.9
10.8
1.2

7,448
7 1
3.9
11.9
1.7

7,788
7 3
3.3
14.3
2.1

7,900

7,708

7,657

7,966

8,520

-4.0

-7.0

-1.4

2.4

37

3.3
13.7
2.1

3.3
14.0
2.1

3.3
14.5
2.1

3.5
13.7
2.1

3.6
13.7
2.1

-0.2
5.5
0.

-0.1
0.
0.

0.
4.2
0.

0.
-2.2
0.

45
91
44

1483.0 1480.7 1516.4 1510.4 1512 8
1197.4 1207.5 1230.6 1236.6 1248.1 1250.9 1249.3 1250.2
1043.8 1043.2 1061.1 1067.3 1073.0 1075.7 1074.8 1075.8

-0.1
-0.1

0.1
0.1

0 2
0.9
0.5

50
52
51

B. Cyclical Indicators b y E c o n o m i c Process
B 1 . Employment and Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments...
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
M l . Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction . . . .
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2

Comprehensive Unemployment:
37 Total unemployed (inverted 4 )
L,Lg,U Thousands. .
43 Unemployment rate total ^inverted 4 ) 2
L,Lg,U Percent
4 2
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-rate (inv. ) .. L,Lg,U
do. . . .
* 9 1 . Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted 4 ) .. Lg.Lg.Lg Weeks
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv. 4 ) 2 .. Lg,Lg,Lg Percent
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50 GNP in 1972 dollars
52 Personal income in 1972 dollars
* 5 1 . Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars ..
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction 1972 dollars

C,C,C

c,c,c
c.c.c

A r bil dol
do
do. . . .

C,C,C

do

247 2

231 0

233 3

232 2

230 9

231 g

2 29 1

227 7

—1 2

—0 6

0 5

-0 6

53

C,C,C

1967=100...
do. . . .
do. . . .
A r ,bil dol.

152.5
146.4
164.0
674.5

147.0
136.7
161.2
665.2

151.8
141.3
165.7
688.9

152.5
143.1
166.0
686.3

153.1
142.6
166.9
691.0

153.6
143.3
167.4

151.8
140.9
166.1

149.5
138.2
163.9

-1.2
-1.7
-0.8

-1.5
-1.9
-1.3

0.5
1.3
0.2
-0 4

0.4
-0.3
0.5
0 7

47
73
74
49

85.6
82
87.4

79.1
78
80.0

79.9
78
82. 2

79.8
78
81.2

79.3
NA
81.2

-0.1
0
-1 0

-0 5
NA

L,C,U

Percent
do. . . .
do

o

82
83
84

Orders and Deliveries:
L,L,L
6. New orders, durable goods
L,L,L
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol. . L,L,L
2
25 Chg in unfilled orders durable goods
L,L,L
L.Lg.U
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
L,L,L
*32. Vendor performance 2 (§)

Bil. dol
do. . . .
do. . . .
do. . . .
Bil. dol., EOP
Percent

79.32
79.32
85.46
87.88
87.78
87.35
86.28
79.35
42.54
38.30
39.40
39.75
39.10
3 8 . 9 1 38.28
34.99
37.55
33.73
34.74
35.60
34.60
34.1b
33.98
31.68
3.57
1.26
1.26
0.62
1.00
0.52
0.09
-3.98
293.67 308.82 312.60 314.48 317.46 317.37 317.46 313.48
63
40
49
52
46
48
43
38

Consumption and Trade:
56 Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars ..
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54 Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expend., autos
58. Index of consumer sentiment©

C.C.C
C,C,C
C,L,C
CLU
U,L,U
L,C,C
L,L,L

Bil. dol
do. . . .
1967=100...
Mil dol
do. . . .
A.r., bil. do).
IQ1966=100

294.51
160.16
150.8
74,529
45,172
65.3
66.0

351.54
157.68
150.0
86,247
44,259
63.3
73.9

353.92
156.72
149.5
88,159
44,473
72.4
74.8

352.78
156.18
149.6
88,591
44,788
77.2

73.1

L,L,L
L,L,L

1967=100...
Number. . . .

131.7
1 2 1 . 1 117.7
116.0
43,714 44,337 47,151 48,990

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

Industrial Production:
*47 Industrial production total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49 Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB 2
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA 2
84 Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB 2 . . . .

c,c,c

C,L,L

c,c,c
L,C,U

—0 4
0.5
0.6

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries

320.11
154.63
145.4
79,721
43,656
61.8
64.4

349.75
158.94
147.7
86,627
45,039
75.6
68.3

-1.2
-1.6
-0.5
-0.43
0.
-5

-8.0
-8'. 6
-6.8
-4.07
-1.3
-5

2.8
0.9
2.5
-U.64
0.6
3

-0.1
-1.6
-2.8
0.38
0.9
-6

6
7
8
25
96
32

0.4
0.3
-0.9
-0.1
-1.0

NA
NA
-0.9
-1.5
-1.8

70.3

-5.3

-3.8

0.5
-0.8
1.6
-0.4
-1.7
-16 3
8.2

0.7
-0.6
-0.3
2.2
0.5
14 4
1.2

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

-1.4
3.9

NA
NA

12
13

354.22
NA
156.58
NA
148.3
147.0
88,536 87,179
44,357 43,568

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Net business formation
13 New business incorporations




Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Series title

Timing
classification 3

Unit
of
measure

Average
lstQ
1981

2dQ
1981

3dQ
1981

Aug.
1981

Sept.
1981

Oct.
1981

1980

Aug.
to
Sept.
1981

Sept.
to
Oct.
1981

1st Q
to
2dQ
1981

2dQ
3d Q
1981

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment . .
*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,
1972dol
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . .
27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. s . . . .
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment .
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equip
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. .
Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol

26.35

25.94

26.91

27.71

27.39

27.59

26.53

26.04

-3.8

-1.8

3.0

-1.2

L,L,L
L,L,L

do.
do.

15.17
22.52

13.91
22.55

13.63
23.49

13.88
23.94

13.87
23.99

13.92
24.70

13.68
23.03

12.95
21.86

-1.7
-6.8

-5.3
-5.1

1.8
1.9

-0.1
0.2

20
24

L,L,L

, .do.

13.20

12.37

12.14

12.23

12.39

12.66

12.16

11.15

-3.9

-8.3

0.7

1.3

27

90.52
22.01
76.47

77.96
25.90
90.73

84.3
27.75
93.34

81.66
28.44
96.56

72.18
26.84
96.26

76.97

68.55

72.32

-10.9

5.5

-3.2
2.5
3.4

-11.6
-5.6
-0.3

9
11
97

1.4

2.0

347.14
1S2.7
184.5

NA
181.7

0.1
-1.0

NA
-0.5

2.7
2.2
-0.6

1.7
1.0
1.1

69
76
86

857
58.3

-2.2
-1.7

-6.8
-15.1

-15.5
-6.1
-6. 3

-17.6
-20.7
-9.4

28
29
89

12.2

3.2

L,L,L

Bit. dol.

L,C,U Mil.sq.ft. . .
U,Lg,U Bit. dol
C,Lg,Lg Bit. dol., EOP

CLg,Lg A.r., bil. dol.

270.46 295.63 312.24 316.73 3 2 2 . 9 6

do. . .
C,Lg,Lg
C,Lg,U 1967=100..,
C,Lg,C A.r., bil. dol.

282.12 310.98 329.35 338.30 344.14
171.3
173.2
178.
182.2
184.0
158.4
163.3
162.0
161.1
162.8

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

A.r., thous.
1967=100..
A.r., bil. dol.

1,745
123.6
59.1

10.2
do.
do.
Bil. dol. .

11.08
49.0
2.65

1,391
95.1
51.0

1,176
89. 3
47.8

969
70.8
43.3

-2.9

-1.4

10.8

14.0

-9.62
31.0
0.38

-7.7
41.1
0.43

2.37
35.0
0.91

10.15
52.0
0.83

1,292
96.6
48.1

941
69.9

920
68.7

B 5 . Inventories a n d I n v e n t o r y Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2 . . . .
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed 6 ) 2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 .
38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . .
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5
*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol. 5
65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods5
77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

Lg,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP
do. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg
do. . .
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg Ratio
L,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP

11.22
52.3
-1.59

8.24
57.1
2.18

-2.98
4.8
3.77

NA
NA
NA

10.14
-6.1
0.48

7.78
17.0
-0.08

36
31
38

4 9 4 . 2 3 507.21 502.46 507.21
444.22 475.20 485.4
265.44 262.97 262.64 2 6 5 . 4 0 268.21 267.11 268.21
79.25
81.21
71.38
76.56
83.78
82.58
83.78
1.65
1.68
1.65
1.71
1.70
1.71
1.71
219.52
2 2 2 . 2 6 224.77
213.73 218.24
222.59 224.77

0.9
0.4
1.5

NA
NA
NA

1.8
1.1
2.5

2.6
1.1
3.2

71
70
65

0.

NA

0.03

0.02

77

1.0

NA

1.2

1.1

78

-0.06
-2.2

0.11
-2.0

-0.97
-0.1

-1.73

92
23

1.3

1.0

-5.4

19

B 6 . Prices, Costs, a n d Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
* 9 2 . Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed 6 ) 2
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (u)

L,L,L
U,L,L

Percent
1967-100...

Stock Prices:
* 1 9 . Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s ®

L,L,L

194143=10.

Profits
16.
18.
79.
80
15.
26.

L,L,L
L,L,L
LC,L
L.C.L
L,L,L
L,L,L

A.r., bil. dol.
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .
Cents
1977 = 100..

167
99.6
109
65.5
5.7
96.8

163.2
88
100
55.1
4.9
96.3

169.2
87
115.3
60.2
5.0
97.3

152.7
77.4
113.9
58.2
5.1
96.9

153.5
76.5
113.8
57.0
NA
96.8

-9.8
11.8
-1.2
-3.3
0.1
-0.4

0.5
-1.2
-0.1
-2.1
NA
-0.1

16
18
79
80
15
26

L,L,L
L.L.L

A.r., bil. dol.

257.1
149.1

265.4
141.8

144.7

270.5
134.6

276.4
135.0

-4.2
-7.0

2.2
0.3

34
35

Lg,Lg,Lg

1977=100..

119.3

131.4

139.4

141.6

145.1

1.6

2.5

Lg,Lg,Lg Dollars. . . .
Lg.Lg.Lg 1967=100..

1.092
175.8

1.196
195.0

1.244
203.9

1.266
207.6

1.295
211.1

1.8
1.8

2.3
1.7

68
62

Lg,Lg,Lg Percent. . . .

74.4

75.3

75.2

75.5

75.5

0.53
0.21
-0.06
-0.1
0.4

-0. 57
-0.38
-0.35
0.3
0.8

-0.01
0.12
0.13
-2.7
-1.0

85
102
104
105
106

-0.002

•0.068
•0.008

0.159
0.018

107
108

10.14
44.78
-1.46
15.9

11.06
3.00
8.10
NA

33
112
113
110

and Profit Margins:
Corporate profits after taxes
Corp. profits after taxes, 1972 dollars
Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj .
do
in 1972 d o l . .
Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2 .
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm b u s . . .

Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp. . .
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income 2

1.98
293.0

1.49
298.0

2.96
288.5

103.01 118.78 131.52

1.99
288.3

0.26
286.4

0.10
289.5

0.04
283.0

0.15
277.

1 3 2 . 8 1 125.68 129.63 118.27 119.80

213.5

215.5

1.3

-0.86
-0.42
0.02
-1.4
-0.6

B 7 . M o n e y a n d Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (M1-B)2
102. Change in money supply (M2) 2
*104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed 6 ) 2 . . .
105. Money supply (M1-B), 1972 dollars
*106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars

L,L,L
L.C.U
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

Percent.
do.
do.
Bil. dol. .
do.

0.58
0.69
0.97
218.3
848.6

0.52
0.76
0.77
204.4
813.8

0.81
0.97
1.07
200.6
807.3

0.24
0.59
0.72
201.3
813.9

0.23
0.71
0.85
195.8
805.4

0.63
0.97
0.86
196.6
807.4

-0.23
0.55
0.88
193.9
802.5

0.30
0.76
0.82
193.8
805.7

Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (M1-B)2
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2) 2

C.C.C
CLg,C

Ratio

6.371
1.319

6.521
1.347

6.759
1. 366

6.691
1.358

6.850
1.376

1.375

1.378

1.376

85.26
61.19
55.48
22.88
19.60 - 1 1 . 9 0
38.69
2.90
23.89
349.71 292.631 3 0 5 . 8 4

4 5 . 34
32.88
22.43
354.53

34.28
35.88
30.53
NA

34.20
30.36
34.31

26.33
32.11
33.83

NA
20.17
NA

Credit
33.
112.
113.
110.

Flows:
Change in mortgage debt2
Change in business loans2
Change in consumer installment credit2
Total private borrowing




L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

do. . . .

A.r., bil. dol.
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .

-7.87
1.75
-0.48

NA
•11.94
NA

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Percent champ

Average
1st Q
1981
1979

2dQ

3dQ

1981

1981

Aug.
1981

Sept.
1981

2dQ

Sept.

1st Q

to

to

Sept.
1981

Oct.
1981

to
2dQ

3dQ

1981

1981

Aug.
Oct.
1981

1980

to

I, CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit—Con.
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v . 4 ) ®
39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv. 4 ) 2 s

L,L,L
L,L,L

Mil.dol
Percent, EOP

222.28
2.64

386.26
2.57

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 )' 2 ®
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve 2 ®

L,U,U
L,Lg,U

Mil.dol. ..
do. .

-1,131

1,338

-1,141
1,420

11.19
10.04
8.74
10.05
6.52
10.89
13.18
12.67

13.36
11.61
10.81
12.77
8.60
13.42
15.17
15.27

Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds r a t e 2 ®
114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ®
115. Treasury bond y i e l d s 2 ®
116. Corporate bond yields 2 ®
117. Municipal bond yields 2 ®
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ®
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2 ®
*109. Average prime rate charged by b a n k s 2 ® . . . .
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large comm. banks
*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income2

L,Lg,Lg Percent. .
do.
CLg,Lg
do.
CLg.Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
U,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lgj

538.63
2.53

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA
NA

0.07

NA
NA

-872 -1,591 - 1 , 1 9 3 - 1 , 1 3 7 -1,073 -1,032
1,229 1,845 1,544 1,408 1,473 1,149

-64
65

-324

16.57
14.37
12.01
14.37
9.98
14.69
19.91
19.21

2.30

17.78
14.83
12.66
15.22
10.69
16.18
19. 99
18.93

2.28

17.58
15.09
13.60
16.33
12.11
17.76
21.11
20.32

2.35

2.28

NA

-41

17.82
15.61
13.61
16.34
12.26
17.96

15.87
14.95
14.14
16.97
12.92
18.55

15.08
13.87
14.13
16.96
12.83
17.43

-1.95
-0.66
0.53
0.63
0.66
0.59

-0.79
-1.08
-0.01
-0.01
-0.09
-1.12

20.50

20.08

18.45

-0.42

-1.63

0.02

14
39

719
616

-398
-301

93
94

1.21
0.46
0.65
0.85
0.71
1.49
0 .08
-0.28

-0.20
0.26
0.94
1.11
1.42
1.58
1.12
1.39

119
114
115
116
117
118
67
109

NA

0.23

NA

Lg,Lg,Lg

Bit. dot., EOP

303.58 306.47 312.45 318.05 325.69 322.87 325.69

NA

0.9

NA

1.8

2.4

66

Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg

Bil. dol
Percent

147.06 163.76 172.87 176.96 185.78 185.73 188.40 190.09
NA
14.79 14.14 13.35 13.35 13.22 13.21 13.23

1.4

0.9
NA

2.4
0.

5.0

72
95

0.02

-0.13

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B 1 . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer prices (CPI), all i t e m s ®
Change in CP!, all items, S/A2
CPI, food
Producer prices (PPI), all commodities ®
PPI, crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

1972=100...
1967=100...
Percent
1967=100..

162.8
217.4

177.4
246.8

188.1
262.9

191.1
269.0

195.4
276.7

276.5

279.3

279.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.6

1.1

0.8

1.2

0.4

234.5

254.6

270.7

271.4

276.1

275.9

278.6

279.4

do.
do.
do.
do.
do.

..
..
..
..
..

235.6
282.2
242.8
216.7
215.7

268.8
304.6
280.3
239.8
248.9

287.6
329.8
299.2
255.9
265.1

294.1
333.1
305.8
262.3
271.1

295.9
333.3
308.8
267.2
272.9

296.2
333.9
309.2
267.7
272.9

295.5
330.2
309.4
267.8
273.5

296.0
324.6
309.3
270.2
274.7

1977 = 100..

116.8

127.3

134.9

137.6

140.3

140.7

141.3

141.6

0.4

0.2

97.4
118.8
99.2
99.5

93.5
92.8
130.5 138.8
96.0
95.5
99. 3 100. 3

93.0
142.0
96.0
101.1

92.3
145.3
95.5
100.9

92.7

92.0

91.8

-0.8

-0.2

0.5
0. 8

-0. 5
-0. 2

0.9
0.9
1.4
2.6
1.7

-0.3
-0.2
-2.4
-3.0

-1.2

-5.6

441
442
37
444
445
446

-0.5
-0.2
-1.5

451
452
453

0.6

2.7

0.6
-0. 6

3. 7
-7. 7

0.5
0.7

1.4

501
502
500
511
512
510

1.0
0.4
1.0

0.3

310
320
320
322

2.3
1.0
2.2
2.5
2.3

0.6
0.1
1.0
1.9
0.7

330
331
332
333
334

2.0

2.0

340

0.2
2.3

-0.8

341
345
346
370

1.6
2.3

-0.2

0.3
0.2

-0.2
-1.1

-1.7

0.1
0.
0.2

0.
0.9
0.4

2. 3
2.9
0.5
1.7

0.2

-0.8

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus.
346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business ..
370. Output per hour, private business sector

do.
do.
do.
do.

..
..
..
..

2.3

C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
Labor
451.
452.
453.

102.91 104.72 105.80 106.77 106.43 106.60 106.24 106.74
96.94 97.27 98.01 98.87 98.72 98.94 98.27 98.22
5,963 7,448 7,788 7,900 7,708 7,657 7,966 8,520
2,223 3,261 3,323 3,411 3,308 3,321 3,455 3,773
2,213 2,547 2,718 2,763 2,772 2,701 2,819 2,953
1,528 1,640 1,747 1,726 1,629 1,635 1,692 1,793

Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over . . .
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age . . .

Millions . . .
do. . .
Thousands.
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .

Force Participation Rates:
Males,.20 years and over2
Females, 20 years and over2
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2

Percent. . . .
do. . .
do. . .

79.8
50.6
58.1

79.4
51.4
56.9

78.9
51.9
56.9

79.4
52.4
56.3

78.9
52.2
54.8

A.r.,bil.dol.
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .

494.4
509.2
-14.8
351.2
324.4
26.7

540.8
602.0
-61.2
384.0
355.0
29.1

617.4
664.0
-46.6
411.7
374.8
36.9

621.0
668. 2
-47.2
413.6
377.5
36.1

637.9
692.8
-54.9
419.4
382.1
37.2

79.0
52.4
54.8

78.9
51.8
55.4

78.8
52.3
55.2

-0.3
-0.7

-0.1

4.0
4.0
4.4
3.5

7.0
9.2
4.8
6.0

0.5

-0.1
-0.6

-0.1
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.6

-0.2

-0.6

0.3

D. Government Activities
D 1 . Receipts and Expenditures
501.
502.
500.
511.
512.
510.

Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
Federal Government surplus or deficit 2 . . .
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures . .
State and local govt. surplus or deficit 2

517.
525.
548.
564.

Defense Department obligations
Military prime contract awards
New orders, defense products
National defense purchases

-0. 8

1. 2
1.1

10.3

D2. Defense Indicators
Mil.dol....
do. . .
do. . .
A.r.,bil. dol.

11,141 13,392 15,370 15,355 16,931 17,374 16,584
NA 10,142
NA
5,356 6,961 7,631 7,720
3,374 A,662
5,210 4, 772 5,932 5,759 6,554
111.2 131.7 145.2 148.2 153.8

Mil.dol.
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.

15,137 18,390 20,008 19,519 19,323 19,050 19,655
2,886 3,435 4,158 3,523 3,285 3,202 3,563
3,009 3,788 4,188 4,286 5,111 6,207 4,559
21,858 21,521 23,528 21,229
17,160 20,417 22,022
4,676 6,139 7 , 1 2 3 6,590 5,815 6,335 5,709
2,030 2,044 2,199 2,229 2,635 1,943
1,853

NA
NA

-4.5

NA
NA

-0.1

NA

1.2

NA

3,799

13.8

-42.0

-8.4

24.3
3. 8

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

3.2

11.3
-26.6
-9.8
-9.9
-26.3

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2.1

517
525
548
564

E. U.S. International Transactions
E 1 . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, total except military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts




...
...
..
..
..
..

-2.4
-15.3
-0.7
-7.5

-1.0
-6.8
19.2
-1.5
-11.8

7.6

1.4

2.3

602
604
606
612
614
616

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Unit
of
measure

2dQ
1978

3dQ
1980

4th Q

1st Q
1981

2dQ
1981

3dQ
1981

1979

4th Q
to
1st Q
1981

1st Q
to
2dQ
1981

6.9
4.9
893
9.1
8.7
6.5
5.6
1,056

-1.0
2.5
-2,237
3.1
8.6
0.4
2.9
-2,187

-0.4
1.1
-1.2
1.9
0.3
-0.6
0.1

50
200
213
224
225
217
227

2.6

Average

-0.5
-6.4
0.7
0.4
1.0
-4.6
1.3
2.4

231
233
238
239
230
232
236
237

3.8
-2.0
12.2
4.9
0.6
18.8

2dQ
to
3d Q
1981

li. OTHER I M P O R T A N T ECONOMIC
MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
618.
620.
622.
651.
652.
668.
669.
667.

Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on goods and services2

35,514
,118 55,992 55,667 56,252
149
43,953
,955 62,327 62,411 59,154
719
-8,440 -6 ,836 -6,335 -6,744 -2,902
570
10,816
,675 18,985 16,860 18,850
764
5,466
,310 10,794 10,342 10,697
507
55,256
,232 86,168 83,617 86,655
636
57,508 70 ,480 83,472 82,830 80,177 84 902
-2,252
,752
2,696
787
6,478
734

61,098
65,775
-4,677
21,566
12,513
94,431
89,641
4,790

60,477 58,012
67,391 65,237
-6,914 -7,225
22,235
NA
13,587
NA
94,845
NA
92,242
NA
2,603
NA

A.r., bil.dol.
do. .
do. .
do. .
do. .
A.r., dollars.
..do. .

1436.9
2156.1
1422.9
L462.9
981.5
6,454
4,409

1483.0
2413.9
1472.9
1641.7
1011.5
b,588
4,493

A.r., bif. dot.
do. .
..do.
, .do.
..do.
, .do.
..do.
..do.

904.8
146.3
345.7
412.8
1348.7
199.3
529.8
619.6

930.9
935.1
146.6
135.8
354.6
358.4
429.6
440.9
1510.9 1672.8
212.3
211.9
602.2
675.7
785.2
696.3

Mil. dol.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

-4.1
-3.2
-311
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

618
620
622
6 51
652
668
6 69
667

A. National Income and Product
A 1 . G N P a n d Personal income
50.
200.
213.
224.
225.
217.
227.

GNP in 1972 dollars
GNP in current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . ,
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol..

1480.7
2626.1
1483.6
1821.7
1018.4
6,504
4,473

1463.3
2564.8
1462.0
1784.1
1008.2
6,437
4,435

1471.9
2637.3
1476.9
1840.6
1018.5
6,456
4,468

1485.6
2730.6
1492.7
1897.0
1025.8
6,499
4,488

1516.4
2853.0
1517.8
1947.8
1033.3
6,620
4,511

1510.4
2885.8
1499.6
1985.6
1036.8
6,580
4,517

1512.8
2956.6
1498.8
2041.7
1043.6
6,5 73
4,534

2.1
4.5

919.3
930.8
126.2
132.6
356.6
354.9
436.5
443.3
1626.8 1682.2
194.4
208.8
664.0
674.2
768.4
799.2

946.8
139.1
360.4
447.3
1751.0
223.3
703.5
824.2

960.2
146.8
364.5
448.9
1810.1
238.3
726.0
845.8

955.1
137.4
367.0
450.7
1829.1
227.3
735.3
866.5

964.6
141.2
368
454.8
1887.2
237.9
750.5

1.4
5.5

1.9
0.5

A 2 . Personal Consumption Expenditures
231.
233.
238.
239.
230.
232.
236.
237.

Total, 1972 dollars
Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
Services, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars

3.2
4.7
2.1
3.7

A 3 . Gross Private Domestic Investment
241.
243.
30.
240.
242.
245.

T o t a U 9 7 2 dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventoiies, 1972 dol. 2 . .
Total, current dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars
Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol. 2

..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

229.7
215.8
14.0
375.3
353.2
22.2

232.6
222.5
10.2
415.8
398.3
17.5

203.6
206.6
-2.9
395.3
401.2
-5.9

200.5
199.2
1.3
390.9
383.5
7.4

195.3
200.2
-5.0
377.1
393.2
-16.0

200,
207,
-7.2
397.7
415.1
-17.4

211.6
213.1
-1.4
437.1
432.7
4.5

219.7
208.9
10.8
458.6
435.3
23.3

220.
206.
14.
459.
434.
24.3

5.5
2.6
5.8
9.9
4.2
21.9

..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

277.8
99.8
178.0
432.6
153.4
279.2

281.8
101.7
180.1
473.8
167.9
305.9

290.
108.
181.9
534.7
198.9
335.8

291.9
110.7
181.2
530.0
198.7
331.3

288.2
106.9
181.3
533.5
194.9
338.6

289.8
107.4
182.4
558.6
212.0
346.6

293.6
111.2
182.5
576.5
221.6
354.9

289.
108.
180,

1.3

219.5
357.9

288.4
109.7
178.7
588.3
226.0
362.3

2.4

..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

127.5
103.0
24.6
219.8
220.4
-0.6

109.
37,
281.
267.
13.4

161.1
109.1
52.0
339.8
316.5
23.3

160.5
108,9
51.7
333.3
316.2
17.1

160.5
102.8
57.6
342.4
297.9
44.5

108.
48,
346.
322.
23.3

162.5
111.6
50.9
367.4
338.2
29.2

161.5
115.4
46.2
368.2
347.5
20.8

158
118.4
39
364
342.1
22.0

2070.0 2122.4
1569.0 1597.4
129.7
124.9
169.3
177.9
31.5
32.0
185.3
175.3

2204.8
1661.8
134.0
183.3
32.4
193.3

2291.1 2320.9
1722.4 1752.0
132.1
134.1
203.0
190.3
32.7
33.3
200.8
211.0

465.3
368.7
106.6
-11.2
5.4

1.0

241
243
30
240
242
245

0.8

-0.
0.9
-1.1
1.9
3.0
1.2

261
263
267
260
262
266

3.2
2.5
2.4
6.2
4.8
5.9

-0 6
3.4
-4. 7
0.2
2.7
-8.4

-2.0
2.6
-6.4
-1.1
-1.6
1. 2

256
257
255
252
253
250

2371.9
1789.9
137.2
191
33.9
219.6

-1.4
10.7
0.9
3.9

1.3
1.7
1.5
-6. 3
1.8
5. 1

2.2
2.2
2. 3
0.5
1.
4.1

220
280
282
286
284
288

462.3
375.5
103.3
-17.6
5.1

8.8
6.7
-8.9
21.1
-0.5

5.1
1.8
19.9
-1.5
0.8

-0.6
1. 8
-3.1
-b. 4
-0. 3

290
29b
29 2
298
293

0.1
-1.3

A 4 . Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
261.
263.
267,
260.
262.
266.

Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
State and local governmer+s, current dollars . .

-1.0

A 5 . Foreign Trade
256.
257.
255.
252.
253.
250.

Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . .
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . .
Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol. 2 . . .
Exports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Imports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Net exports of goods and serv., current dol. 2 .

A 6 . National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
286.
284.
288.

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj . .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj . .
Net interest

..do.
..do.
..do.
. .do.
..do.

L745.4 1963.3 2121.4
1299.7 1460.9 1596.5
117.1
131.6
130.6
185.5
196.8
182.7
30.5
31.8
143.4
179.8
115.8

A7. Saving
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving (private and govt.)
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit 2
Personal saving rate2

..do.
..do.
..do.

355.2
279.1
76.3
-0.2
5.2

411.9
312.7
86.2
11.9
5.2

401.9
331.6
101.3
-32.1
5.6

394.5
325.8
110.0
-42.5
6.2

402.0
334.6
111.4
-45.6
6.1

4 0 6.7
339.3
97.6
-30.8
5.1

442.6
362.2
88.9
-9.7
4.6

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated b y ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period. A.r. = annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U - unclassified.
4
inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
s
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1. 2, 2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes
(JulyMMay)
P
I

(Nov.)(Oct.)
P
T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dec ) ( N o v )
P T

(Apr.) (Feb
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan,)(July)
P T

Index: 1967=100
160-|

-15

910. Index of twelve leadint indicators (series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 184, 106)

150

-9

140-

Si

V

1

%

130120110

V

10090-

r

-11

80

-23
160 •

150«
140 •
130 •

-2

120-

920. Index of four roughly coincident Gators (series 41, 47, 51, 57) jT

110 -

y

100220210 200"
190«
180 •
170 -

-6

±

-2
•10

160 -

10

-1

i°^
•2

52

;

Vi ^4

55

56

57

58

59

v«; 61

62

63

64

65

66

67

Gb

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.




1
0

in'

:iu-

•?

ii) 53

1

12G<

930. Index of six lagging indicators (sales 62,70,72,91,95,109)

• ^ 49

150-

\\

/<-} 7 6

77

78

79

80

1981

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued

913. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)

Index: 1967=100

-15

914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29)

-2

-2

915. Inventory investment 0 d purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 92)

-12
-23

-29

-11

/

916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) S

-22

rlL.
-10-

/

Z_
917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 110)

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

HIT

-34

\

\
-il_

-3
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.

Current data for
 these series are shown on page 60.


11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)(May)
P T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(DecKNov.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

1. Average workweek, production workers,

ma«icturingfc) TTTT

4140390-

(per 100 employees-inverted scale)

123-

4540-

orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars (bil. doi.)

35-

A

30-

01

2520-

15-*

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent)
1007550 -

130 120-

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)

110-

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,
1972 Uulldis (bil. ilul.)

50

51

5:-

•?.:

54

55

5G

5/

58

59

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, 65, and 66.




12

60

(-.\

f»2

63

64

I 'I

65

66

67

68

72

73 74 75 76

77 78 79 80 1981

A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
Uan.) <
p

1

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=MM)

:K:4S

rJ*

\J£
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) L,L,L

104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)h,LL

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
iLLLl

106. Money supply-M2-in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
LLL

1

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
71.

Digitized Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and
for FRASER


1
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov )(Oct.)
P T

(July) (May)
P T

(A g '(Apr }
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)
P T

(Dec.MNov.)
P T

(Nov) (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
PT
959085-

Employees on nonagricuitural payrolls (millions)

[MS

.7. Industrial production, total (index:
r

c.c.c

I

57. Manufacturing and trade sales,
1972 dollars (Ml.

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.




14

C O M P O S I T E INDEXES A N D THEIR C O M P O N E N T S — C o n t i n u e d
C h a r t A4. Lagging Index C o m p o n e n t s

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

1

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.J

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
g,Lg,Lj

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)
\lgXgXg\

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.


NOX/PMRFR 1981


1
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
(Aug.) (Apr.)

p

(Apr.) (Feb -

p

T

(Nov )

r

P

(Mar )

(Jan.) (July)

T

P

T

42 T

41-

40-

3938-*

21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

1 Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100

1

5-

J\

U.LI

4-

3-

5. Average weekly initial claims, Sate unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 emptoyees-inverted scale) [ L

4 Quit rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
2-

1-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .




1
6

NOVEMBER 14R1

Kill

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
of persons unemployed (ratio)

adv^^

I Comprehensive Employment!
48. Employee-hours in nonagricuKural establishments
(ann. rate, bil. hours)

42. Persons engaged in nonagricuKural activities (millions)

41. Employees on nonagricuftural payrolls (millions)
CXX

40. Employees in goods-producing industries-mining,
manufacturing, construction (minions;

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.


• M MM NfWFMRFR 1981


1
7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr,)
P
T

:Apr n i » b
P
T

(Dei
P

P I

T

I Comprehensive Employment—Con.|

60

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (percent)

T

59-

r
~Z

5857-

U,Lg,U
AyJWV

I Comprehensive Unemployment|
37. Number unemployed, total (millions—inverted scale)

4 1 Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)

T

Z

JM

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rale (percent—inverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale)
4

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

•0:>6

57

58

59

h-.>

f.l

62

63

64

65

66

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.




1
8

NOVEMBER 1QR1

IMII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECUINUMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Incom*

[Comprehensive Output and Income]
50. 6NP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. d o t f

iccci

52. Personal income in 1972 dollars

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 ffoifefS
(ann. rate, bil. dot.)

53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing and
construction in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

140 J

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72.

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(New.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

170-

ial Production]

^

—

160-

^

150-

47. Industrial production, total (index: 1967=100)

140130120110-

180i70-

v

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1967=100)
fiTTl
X

m

lini

\

73. Industrial production, durable mararfadures
(index: 1967=100) 1 ^ 7 7 1

(raj

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars, Q
rate, DII.

I Capacity Utilization |
83. Rate ot capacity utilization, manufacturing (btA),

K6 of edacity utilization, ittBMitsictunng (i"KB), (I

(percent) | L,C,U|

V
1956 57

58

59

bu

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.




20

65

66

67

68

78

79

160-

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

[Orders and Deliveries|
6. New orders, durable goods industries,
current dollars (bil. dol.)

7. New orders, durable goods industries, 1972 dollars

(Mdd

>mo X

8. New orders for consumer
in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

WV
V

/

wvy

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)

96. Manufacturers' unfiiied orders, durable goods industries
(«l. do..)
ra_

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent) —
—

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.


NOVEMBER 1981


BCII

21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

' D e c ) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Ma;.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars-*-

nt. and trade sales
in 1972 d o t e (bil. dol.)

75. Industrial production, consumer
findac 1967=100)

54. Sales of retal stores in current

ciiii
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (bil. doL)

ra^Wdot)

• i -•: -mm ^:: •: i l
58. Index of consumer sentiment

Iff
1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.




22

NOVEMBER 1981

ItClft

B

C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B4. Fixed Capital I n v e s t m e n t

[Formation of Business Enterprises!
12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)

IL

13. New business incorporations (thousands)

I Business Investment Commitments]
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars (bil. dol.)

27. Manufacturers1 new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense, in 1972 d o t e (bil. dol.)

Lit
24. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P

(Jan j ( J d l y )
P T

( A p r ) (Feb.)

T

P

T

1 Business investment Commitments—Con.

11. New capry appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, Q
(ana * bil dot)

[Business Investment Expenditures!

Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (ana rate, bil. dol.)

76. Industrial production, business equipment
(Mac 1967=100)
1 ™

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.




24

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

I Business Investment Expenditures-Con.|
Presidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (aim. rate, bil. dot)
86. T o S H I
| Cf Lg,C'""

88. Producers' durable equipment, Q

[Residential Construction Commitments and Investment!
28. New private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions)

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)

89. Residential fixed investment total, in 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

IHfri

h)

58

f

.

h>,

v-:

'•;

Current data f o r these series are shown on page 67.




2
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

30. Change in business inventories, 1972

36. Net change in inventories on hand
(ann. rate, bil. do!.; moving avg.

31. Change in book value, manufacturing
(ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on

1956 57

58

1

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current
FRASER data for these series are shown on page 68.

Digitized for


26

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued

I Inventories on Hand and on Order]

71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories,
current dollars (bJL dot.)
>^
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bil, dol.)
;, J

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods (bil. dol.)
—y
iLe.Lg.Lel

/

77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
(ratio) |Lg,Lg,Lg|
\

20U -

78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, /
manufacturing (bil. dol.)
*~
80-

60

40 J

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

58

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.


NOVEMBER 1981


BCII

27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

in sensitive crude materials prices (percent; moving avg.-4-term1)

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials2 (index: 1967=100)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194143=10)

16. CorpgHlrofils after taxes,
(m|f|biLdol.)

and Profij|p|rgin$l

18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

80. Corporate profits
1972
"

with
m ^
rate, bil, dol.) i f g j

79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil.

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
'Beginning with June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission: it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.


28


NOVEMBER 1981

licit

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

[Profits and Profit Margins-Con,

22. I S ^
income, Q (percent)
LLl

(afteTtaesjlo"fifciiIwfporate donSc

81. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adiustmentetototal corporate domestic income,
Q (percent) j y J J ]

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)

26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977=100)

[Cash Flows|

35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars, Q
O C T " I Lf Lf LI

34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, UL dol.) [ T [ 7 |

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

KCII

29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Jan.) (July)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

P

T

63. Unit tabor cost,

68. Labor co^ (current ddlafs) per unit of
(1972 dollars), nonfinancial

6 2 labor cost per unit (rf output,

64. Compensation of employees as a percent

i

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.




30

NOVEMBER 1981

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit

85. Change in money supply Ml-B
(percent; MCD moving avg,—6-term) j

I" rll If
102. Change in money supply M2
MP.n mnwing aug—fUfirm) 11

104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; moving

flU

250 240230 220 ?10200190 900850800 750700 650600-

105. Money supply-Ml-B-in 1972 riollm «

106. Money supply-M2-in 1972 dollars

7.06.56.0-

107. Ratio, GNP to mnmy snnplv M1.R Q

5.5-

IC.C.C

5.0 4,5-

to fTKHTffY flifflpfv M ? (ffllw)

108. Ratio, personal
In

^r

/

-*A.
.,j^

1956 57
1

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

67

68

1.35 1.J0-

y^ ^v

x

v^^

^
66

1.40-

/*\

2x

IPC

1.7.51.20-

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
shown on page 7 1 .

Current data
for these series are
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
• /Mirnnrn
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

urn

31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
• Aug ) (Apr ;
P

(Api " f - f

r

T

• Dc:o.) • N " v . >

:

p

(Nov.'

(Jan.)(July)

(Mar.)

P

i

T

P

T

[CreiF Flows 1

33. Change in mortgage debt (ana rate,JjLML
lL,L,L|

112. Change in bank loanstobusinesses (ami rate, bil cW;
MCD moving avg.-6-term)

113. Change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate, bil.

110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. do!.)

i> :H5

57

58

5S

80

81

82

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 72.




32

6b

66

67

66

69

70

71

72

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

B

C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B7. M o n e y a n d C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d

[Credit Difficulties I
14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans
(percent-inverted scale)
| L,L,L |

[Bank Reserves!

93. Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale)

94. Member bank borrowing from
the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.)

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ .
* ^ »
....
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Nov.)
P

(Mar,)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T
20191817161514131211109871716151413121110981817161514131211109876543-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.




34

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Dec

(Apr.) «f et).
P

(Nov.)

(Jan ) t J u l y )

^ar.)

P

T

P

T

P

T

[Interest Rates—Oil

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (percent)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)
380340 300260 -

[Outstanding Debt]
66. Consumer installment credit (bil. dol.)

7Z Commercial and industry loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial
banks (bil. dol)

f

95. Ratio, consumer instaknent credit to personal income (percent)

•<>'X> '">•/

58

59

6C

61

62

6;

Ui

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

78

7?

78

79

80

198 f

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
MHWPMRFR
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

itrii

1QR1

35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
•••g.-'.V..

•L.t.f

!

:liyj

Percent rising
950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
1001

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )

mural

IP 11
•!

• i! ? \

i!

\\

i; Si*

952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—-, 1-mo. s p a n — )

961. Average workweek, production workers, manufadurin#-20 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span—-)

962. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo, s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )

963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172 Industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )

1958

57

58

59

60

61

82

83

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.




36

64

65

66

67

68

69

/O

/;

76

77

78

79

80 1981

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued

Percent rising
964. New orders, durable goods industries—35 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )

965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q moving avg.~-», 1-Q span — - )

966. Industrial production—24 industries (6-mo. span——, 1-mo. s p a n — )

967. Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-52-32 industries (9-mo. span——, 1-mo. s p a n — )

960. Net profits, manufacturing-about 700 companies1 (4-Q span)

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

Current data
 for these series are shown on page 75.


37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Dec) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July )
P T

(Mar.)
T

Percent rising

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

Actual
* # Anticipated •*••••

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

Percent rising

Aduaf

•«*-»

Anticipated* ••"•

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment-18 industries (1-Q span)
3

(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

975. Level of inveniones, msnufactunng 3nd trade

(a) Actual expenditures

A

*

• . TV* JL

k

WI

c> "V1tI/ 7 A**

^JH

¥

X

(c)Eariy antidpatiore

m

:

* 971. Nw orders, nwHifactunng (4-Q span)1
e

976. Selling prices, msHtfactunng (4Qspany
80-

/

\i
V

:

V
977. Selling pnce^ wholesale trade (4<J span)1

97Z Net profits, maurfacturing and trade (44} span)1

100-

90-

/ .

•*•••/'•.

A .

.% .'

80-

"V

r

90-

•"^'

70-

ye/*?*

•

60-

70-

50-

60-

973. Net sales, mamrfaduring and trade (4Q span)1

1969

70

71

72

1

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

978. Selling prices,reWtrade (44} span)1

80 1981

1969

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about
for1,400 business executives.
FRASER
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

Digitized


38

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CJ

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
Aug.)f Apr )
P
!

( A p r . ) ( f nh.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

( D e c ) <;Nov.)
P
I

Percent changes at annual rate

(Jan >(July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

910c Composite index of twelve leading indicators

(series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 29, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 41, 47, 51, 57)

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators
(series 62, 70 72, 91, 95, 109)

^ ^

50c. GNP in constant (1972) dollars (1-Q span)

47c. Index of industrial production

48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments

51c Personal income less transfer
payments in 1972

1956 57

58

59

60

81

62

63

64

65

66

67

oe

69

7.
(i

71

72

73

74

75

76

7?

78

79

80 198 .
•

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series
were published.




itri

IQftl

39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Apf.Mf-eh
PI

(Jan )(Ju,'.')
P ;

Viar i

-Ml

3000
0
2800 -]
2600 i
22G0 »*
1800 -|

200. GNP in currant doflars, Q (am. rale, bit, dol.)

1600 J
2500-1

223. Personal income in current dollars
(aim. rate, bil. dol.)
\

224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

Q ( m lite, HL dd.)

^5

uisposame personal income m

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.




40

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

C h a r t A2. Personal C o n s u m p t i o n Expenditures

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

Personal consumption expenditures—

:^-;

V

F

J8

59

60

61

O

U:

M

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

itrift

41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

(Jan.) (July)
P

T

Annual rate, bHon dollars (cuiiwt)

245. Change in business inventories,

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

30. Change in busmess inventories, Q

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .




42

NOVEMBER 1981

IUII

OTHER MV5PORTAN' ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Jan.) (Jo

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Government purchases of goods and services—

'>*!

•

266. State and local
governments, Q

262. Federal Government, Q

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

267. State and local governments, Q

263. Federal Government, Q

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
P

]

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

440 «
400360320-

252. Exports of goods and services, Q-

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

257. Imports of goods and services, Q

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.




44

A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

280. Compensation of employees, Q

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I
LI

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

1956

57

58

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.




46

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

(Jan.)(July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

74

75

76

77

78

79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
iik. ; ; A p r
P

i

(Dec)(Nov }

P

(Nov.)

(Jan.) (July)

(Mar.)

P

vApr.jifpti

T

]

T

P

T

Percent

1 Percent of GNP[

70-n

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q
65-

-

/
60- 1
201

268. State and local government purchases
of goods and services, Q
15-

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
\

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q

249. Residential fixed investment, Q

^ 2 4 7 . Change in business inventories, Q
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

[Percent of National income]
64. Compensation of employees, Q

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q

289. Net interest, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

7\

11

73

74

75

76

71

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItClft

47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, A N D PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price M o v e m e n t s

Percent changes at annual rate

310c implicit price deflator,
GNP (1-0 span)
310. Implicit price deflator, GNP, Q
311c Faed-weighted price
product (1-Q span)

311. Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product Q

_
330c. All commodities

335c. Industrial commodities

Producer prices—
330. AH commodities

3 3 k Crude materials

335. Industrial commodities

331. Crude materials

332c. Intermediate

332. Intermediate materials

333. Capital equipment

333c Capital equipment

ft

1101

334, Finished consumer goods
Finished consumer pods

1969 70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




78

79

80 1981

1969 70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued

Index: 1967=100

Consumer prices-

Percent changes at annual rate
320c. All items (6-month span)

C h a r t B2. Wages and Productivity

Index: 1977=100

341. Real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy1

340. Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q

\
345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

earnings of production
economy1 —
Hdollar earnings ^ S t e f W f W ? 5

M il All
b-month $pns (arm. rate)

Change in averag^fpriy compensation, all employees,
if*™ tossed*, Q%

r

1-quarter spans (ann. rate)

^

; 9mc Kea oon^ensauon
^ l-quarter spat* (ann.

A

rate)

[ml

*

ikiuarter spans

VXf^

V

''^V^

1

''

V

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, si industries—
348. First year average changes, Q (aim. rate)—»-.
349. Average changes over life of
contract, Q (sin. rate)
[Productivity]

35a Output per hour, all persons,
nonfaim business sector, Q
" j / u . uutput per nour, m persons,
private business sector, Q
370a Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
-

1956 57

1

58

59

60

61

62

63

iniuara *pm* Vdiiii. rmim

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

Percent chaige

\

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

2
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make
them comparable to the annualized 6-month changes. See the current data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
0U
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

M n w C R l D r n ir\r%+

HCB

IB

C

I

LABOR FORCE, E M P L O Y M E N T , A N D U N E M P L O Y M E N T

Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

441. Civilian labor force, total (millions)

Labor force participation rates (percent)—

453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

452. Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (millions)—
37. Total unemployed

444. Males 20 years and over

X

445. Females 20 years
and over

447. Number unemployed, fall-time
workers (millions)

448. Number employed part-time for economic
reasons (millions)

• .i
1

i

V*^WVw
l\:3h

5?

58

5S

60

81

62

63

64

85

68

67

68

C9

n

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

75

50Z Federal Government expenditures, Q

X
501. Federal Government receipts, Q

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit Q

511. State and local government receipts, Q

51Z State and local government expenditures, Q

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.




52

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators

[Advance Measures of Defense Activity]
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(by. do!.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

525. Defense Department military prime contract awards
(bil. doi.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. doi.)

-J*

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bil. doi.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Kfl M
MrtWCIWIBCD
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1QQ1

53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

(Jan.)(July)
P T

i i a j u r e s of Defense Wivltyf
557. Output of defense

559. Manufacturers'

561. Manufacturers' unfifled orders, defense

outlays, military functions and military

ml

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(bil. dol.; MCD movmg avg.-4term)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.




54

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

OTHfcK IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

PI

T

(Nov ) ( M a r )
P
I

•.Gee ) <Nov )
P
T

Apr ufeb

P

(Jan.)(July)
P

T

|lntef Mediate and filial Measures of Defense Activity—ConT]
570 Emolovment in defense nroducts industries (millions^

I.8-1
1.61.41.21.0 J

Defense Department personnel (millions)—
577. Military, active duty
3.53.02.5-

2.0-

578. Civilian, direct hire emnlflvmenl
1.5-

1.0-

0.5 J
160-

Defense f i t e h a s e s i

140-

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national
defense, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

12010080-

60-

40-

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)

108-

1956

57

58

59

60

61

82

63

$%

65

6S

6T

C-l

6f»

70

/;

12

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

I

U.S. I N T E R N A T I O N A L T R A N S A C T I O N S

Chart E l . Merchandise Trade

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments
(Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

604. Exports of agricultural products,
total (bil. dol.)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. dol.)

612 General imports (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)

614. Imports of petroteum and petroleum products (bil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bil. dol.)

Io6

57

58

19

60

81

62

6

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.




56

64

65

66

87

68

69

70

7.
:

7"j ?/

73

79

80 1931

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

C h a r t E2. Goods a n d Services M o v e m e n t s

Annual rate, billion dollars

Excess of receipts
Excess of payments

Goods and services—

667. Balance on goods and services, Q

Merchandise, adjusted—
622. Merchandise trade balance, Q
618. Exports, Q -

Investment income—
651, Income on U.S. investments abroad, Q

^ 6 5 2 . Income on foreign investments in the U.S., Q

NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
shown on page 93.

Digitized for Current data for these series are
FRASER


57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
. P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

280-i
260-

Industrial production—:.

24022079ft

200180160-

X

140120100-

60 J

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.




58

IftJT

OTHER IMPORTANT ECOfMOIVfiC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Chart F2. Consumer Prices

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

F

(Dec.) {Nov.:
P

Chart F3. Stock Prices

T

T

'Jan ) (July)
P

Percent changes at annual rate

T

6-month spans

Consumer prices—

(Nov.)

P

(Jan.)(July)

(Mar)

P

(Dec ) i N o v )

I

T

P

T

Index: 1967=100

Stock prices19. United States

160

_^Af

-

140

-

12010080-

60 550-|
500 450400-

1969

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

Si; 19b •

72

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 198'

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BCII

59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Q l
910. Index of
12 leading inYear
and
month

dicators (series
1, 3, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
92, 104, 106)

(1967 = 100)

920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

(1967 = 100)

930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62, 70, 72,
91, 95, 109)

940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index

COMPOSITE INDEXES
Leading indicator subgroups

913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2, 3,
5)

914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
92)

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

(1967 = 100)

917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104, 106, 110)

(1967 = 100)

1979
January
February
March

142.6
142.3
143.2

144.8
144.9
146.6

157.4
158.5
158.4

92.0

91.4
92.6

98.5
98.4
98.0

113.9
113.9
115.5

107.4
108.3
108.8

93.2
92.2
92.2

148.6
145.6
144.5

April
May
June

140.3
141.4
141.6

144.1
145.6
145.0

161.8
162.5
163.6

89.1
89.6
88.6

94.6
97.3
96.7

113.6
113.3
113.9

107.8
107.3
106.6

92.3
91.7
91.8

146.1
146.9
148.4

July
August
September

141.2
140.1
140.1

145.4
145.0
144.9

164.8
166.4
170.6

88.2
87.1
84.9

96.4
96.0
96.4

113.6
112.9
114.0

106.1
105.7
104.6

91.7
92.0
91.8

148.6
148.3
146.2

October
November
December

137.8
135.6
135.2

145.1
145.0
145.2

175.9
179.1
177.9

82.5
81.0
81.6

96.6
96.1
96.3

112.7
112.0
112.4

103.3
102.3
102.3

90.8
90.3
90.6

143.9
140.4
138.3

January
February
March

134.7
134.1
131.5

146.1
145.2
143.5

178.4
180.8
190.0

81.9
80.3
75.5

96.3
96.4
94.5

111.6
109.9
107.8

102.7
102.1
101.6

90.9
91.6
89.6

137.2
138.7
136.4

April
May
June

126.2
123.0
123.9

140.5
138.0
136.7

196.2
183.5
168.5

71.6
75.2
81.1

90.3
88.3
89.6

104.3
103.2
104.5

100.3
98.8
97.7

88.7
88.5
89.7

131.8
126.4
128.9

July
August
September

128.1
130.7
134.4

136.5
136.7
138.1

163.6
161.7
164.2

83.4
H>84.5
84.1

91.7
92.2
92.9

98.5
99.5
101.5

90.6
91.3
91.5

133.5
137.4
139.0

October
November
December

135.0
136.5
136.3

139.7
140.8
141.3

168.5
175.6
191.0

82.9
80.2
74.0

93.6
94.2
94.5

107.3
108.2
108.3

103.1
103.4
103.2

91.8
92.2
93.0

139.4
0)139.9
138.8

135.2
135.1
136.7

142.0
142.5
142.4

189.1
186.1
181.0

75.1
76.6
78.7

94.2
94.1
93.9

r!O6.7
105.2
106.2

102.1
103.3
104.0

93.9
94.4

0)94.5

139.4
139.3
139.7

94.7
94.0
94.2

106.4
105.2
103.8

0)104.6
103.9
r!03.4

r94.4
r93.7
93.7

rl38.2

93.2
93.1
(NA)

rl38.5
H39.5
r!38.8

1980

106.1
107.0
0)108.8

1981
January
February
March

H>137.5
135.2
rl34.1

142.2
142.2
142.5

179.1
189.4
190.9

79.4
75.1
74.6

July
August
September

r!34.1
M33.3
M30.4

142.6

0)rl42.6
142.0

r!92.8
rl93.5
[H>194.2

r74.0
r73.7
r73.1

0)94.8
93.6
r91.0

rl03.0
r!02.4
r!02.1

103.5
rlO2.9
rl02.1

October
November
December

2

M86.2

p75.6

p90.0

p99.9

pl00.9

April
May
June

128.1

3

140.7

139.2
137.9

p!38.6

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
'•Excludes series 12 for which data are not yet available.
2
Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available.
^Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.




60

NOVEMBER 1 9 8 1

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

L, L, L

L, C, L

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing

(Hours)

L, L, L

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

L, C, L

5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance l

(Thous.)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

(Hours)

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

L, L, L

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

L, Lg, U

4. Quit rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

(Per 100 employees)

L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

L, Lg, U

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapers

(1967 = 100)

U, C, C

48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

1979
January
February
March

40.5
40.5
40.6

3.6
3.6
3.6

4.1
4.1
4.0

344
334
347

0.9
0.9
0.9

2.2
2.1
2.1

0.805
0.785
0.780

161
158
156

168.70
168.89
170.04

April
May
June

39.3
40.3
40.2

2.9
3.5
3.4

4.0
4.0
4.1

434
350
375

1.0
1.0
1.1

2.1
2.0
2.0

0.780
0.794
0.796

155
154
153

166.24
169.23
169.79

July
August
September

40.3
40.2
40.2

3.4
3.3
3.3

3.9
3.9
3.9

395
390
387

1.1
1.4
1.2

2.0
2.0
1.9

0.804
0.762
0.793

155
155
159

169.87
170.01
170.48

October
November
December

40.1
40.0
40.0

3.3
3.2
3.1

3.9
3.9
3.8

395
409
407

1.2
1.3
1.3

2.0
2.0
1.8

0.811
0.771
0.755

167
158
159

170.39
170.67
171.25

January
February
March

40.1
40.0
39.7

3.1
2.9
3.0

3.9
3.8
3.7

402
375
440

1.4
1.3
1.4

1.9
1.9
1.8

0.705
0.696
0.660

154
151
145

172.49
172.14
171.18

April
May
June

39.8
39.5
39.3

3.0
2.6
2.5

3.2
3.1
3.4

569
635
617

2.7
3.2
2.6

1.6
1.5
1.4

0.504
0.420
0.438

122
112
115

170.19
169.04
167.98

July
August
September

39.2
39.5
39.6

2.5
2.7
2.7

3.5
3.6
3.7

535
502
501

1.6
1.8
1.5

1.4
1.4
1.3

0.438
0.439
0.466

118
117
122

167.04
168.13
169.07

October
November
December

39.7
39.8
39.9

2.8
3.0
3.0

0)3.7
3.6
3.5

439
409
396

1.5
1.3
1.2

1.3
1.4
1.5

0.475
0)0.502
0.497

127
0)134
130

169.66
170.06
171.12

40.1
39.8
39.9

3.0
2.8
2.8

3.5
3.5
3.4

417
402
421

1.4
1.3
1.3

1.4
1.4
1.3

0.486
0.495
0.479

128
129
125

0)172.87
171.65
172.14

40.2
0)40.3
40.1

2.9
0)3.2
3.0

3.4
3.1
3.4

408
411
418

1.1
1.3
1.3

1.3
1.3
1.4

0.453
0.430
0.463

118
118
121

170.56
171.43
170.92

July
August
September

40.0
40.0
r39.3

3.0
3.0
2.6

3.4
3.2
2.9

0)392
417
492

0)1.0
1.4
1.7

0)1.5
1.3

0.488
0.463
0.419

123
119
112

171.09
rl71.29
H67.76

October

p39.4

P2.7

p2.9

p518

p2.3

pl.l

p0.384

pllO

P170.18

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

Nnuprnhpr

l i u VCi I lUCf

December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
:
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItO

61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Employment—Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

U, C, C

42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

(Thous.)

Comprehensive Unemployment

L, C, U

U, Lg, U

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey

40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

C, C, C

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey

43. Unemployment rate,
total

45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programsJ

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

1979
January
February
March

92,781
93,088
93,318

88,693
88,946
89,329

26,239
26,279
26,465

59.13
59.27
59.31

5,958
5,993
5,956

5.8
5.9
5.8

3.0
3.0
3.0

11.2
11.3
11.7

1.2
1.2
1.3

April
May
June

93,061
93,364
93,562

89,348
89,699
89,958

26,444
26,526
26,603

59.07
59.16
59.24

5,918
5,776
5,718

5.8
5.6
5.6

2.9
2.8
2.8

11.0

10.9
10.5

1.2
1.2
1.1

July
August
September

93,995
93,706
94,189

90,080
90,228
90,276

26,637
26,568
26,547

59.43
59.21
59.43

5,738
6,057
5,971

5.6
5.9
5.8

2.8
2.9
2.9

10.3
10.6
10.6

1.0
1.1
1.1

October
November
December

94,153
94,123
94,458

90,402
90,442
90,536

26,494
26,382
26,397

59.24
59.21
59.30

6,132
6,104
6,272

5.9
5.9
6.0

3.0
3.1
3.1

10.5
10.6
10.6

1.1
1.2
1.2

January
February
March

94,421
94,488
94,291

90,687
90,865
90,871

26,385
26,363
26,238

59.18
59.18
58.99

6,500
6,454
6,543

6.2
6.2
6.3

3.2
3.2
3.4

10.6
10.7
11.0

1.3
1.2
1.3

April
May
June

93,963
93,764
93,548

90,817
90,446
90,087

25,971
25,662
25,402

58.68
58.54
58.26

7,202
7,944
7,811

6.9
7.6
7.5

3.7
4.2
4.6

11.2
10.6
11.7

1.5
1.6
1.7

July
August
September

93,732
93,793
93,781

89,960
90,219
90,461

25,151
25,322
25,445

58.30
58.23
58.27

8,021
7,942
7,800

7.6
7.6
7.4

4.4
4.3
4.3

11.8
12.5
13.0

1.8
2.0
2.2

October
November
December

93,887
93,999
93,888

90,668
90,844
90,949

25,521
25,629
25,631

58.21
58.22
58.11

7,961
7,946
7,785

7.6
7.5
7.4

4.1
3.8
3.5

13.3
13.6
13.5

2.2
2.2
2.3

94,294
94,646
95,136

91,091
91,258
91,347

25,647
25,657
25,705

58.30
58.38
58.61

7,847
7,754
7,764

7.4
7.3
7.3

3.4
3.2
3.3

14.4
14.4
14.0

2.2
2.1
2.1

95,513
0)95,882
95,127

91,458
91,564
91,615

25,700
25,705
25,818

58.89

0)58.97
58.40

7,746
8,171
7,784

7.3
7.6
7.3

3.3
3.3
3.4

13.7
0)13.2
14.2

2.0
2.0
2.2

July
August
September

95,704
95,574
94,959

91,880
r91,901

0)r91,948

0)25,939
r25,931
r25,925

58.67
58.60
58.13

0)7,502
7,657
7,966

0)7.0
7.2
7.5

0)3.2
3.3
r3.5

13.9
14.5
13.7

0)2.0
2.1
2.1

October
November
December

94,880

p91,743

p25,632

58.03

8,520

8.0

p3.6

13.7

2.1

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
x

Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.




62

NOVFMRFR 1QR1

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C, C, C

C, C, C

50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars

C, C, C

52. Constant
(1972) dollars

51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Persona income

223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

47. Index of
industrial
production,
total

C, C, C

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

C, L, L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

C, C, C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
January
February
March

1,479^9

1,845.9
1,863.0
1,884.8

1,184.0
1,185.1
1,190.7

1,033.9
1,035.8
1,040.8

251.1
251.3
252.6

152.0
152.5
153.5

147.0
147.2
148.6

161.6
162.9
164.0

681 ! 8

April
May
June

1,472L4

1,891.9
1,903.4
1,923.5

1,188.4
1,188.1
1,193.2

1,037.1
1,037.5
1,043.3

251.4
249.5
248.2

151.1
152.7
153.0

144.5
147.6
147.6

162.6
163.6
163.7

669 l l

July
August
September

1,488^2

1,954.0
1,974.8
1,987.9

1,202.5
1,206.4
1,203.3

1,045.2
1,048.4
1,046.3

247.3
245.1
244.4

153.0
152.1
152.7

147.2
144.4
145.9

164.8
165.2
165.4

673.*6

October
November
December

2,011.3
1.49CL6

2,032.7
2,051.8

1,205.8
1,209.9
1,211.9

1,049.0
1,053.6
1,055.3

242.9
241.5
241.7

152.7
152.3
152.5

146.0
145.2
144.8

164.8
165.0
165.3

67^3

1980
January
February
March

1,501!9

2,077.2
2,086.4
2,101.0

1,216.2
1,207.4
1,199.2

1,056.5
1,050.9
1,044.0

240.6
239.2
236.3

153.0
152.8
152.1

144.8
144.4
143.5

166.0
165.8
164.3

682'. 1

April
May
June

1,463^3

2,102.1
2,114.1
2,127.1

1,194.4
1,195.1
1,195.0

1,037.6
1,036.0
1,035.1

231.9
228.2
225.1

148.2
143.8
141.4

138.5
133.3
129.9

161.6
158.1
155.1

658J

July
August
September

1.47K9

2,161.2
2,179.4
2,205.7

1,206.7
1,207.4
1,208.6

1,033.8
1,036.2
1,036.9

224.2
226.2
227.7

140.3
142.2
144.4

128.7
129.9
132.1

154.6
157.6
161.0

657.5

October
November
December

1,485^6

2,234.3
2,257.6
2,276.6

1,216.3
1,221.0
1,222.7

1,045.5
1,051.6
1,053.7

229.4
231.5
232.1

146.6
149.2
150.4

135.7
139.2
140.3

162.1
163.0
165.0

662! 9

E>1,516".4

2,300.7
2,318.2
2,340.4

1,227.7
1,231.1
1,233.1

1,057.8
1,062.0
1,063.5

E>234.9
232.6
232.5

151.4
151.8
152.1

141.0
140.8
142.1

165.6
166.2
165.3

688! 9

1,510.4

2,353.8
2,367.4
2,384.3

1,234.9
1,236.2
1,238.6

1,065.7
1,067.3
1,069.0

232.2
232.2
232.1

151.9
152.7
152.9

142.5
143.5
143.2

165.9
166.4
165.8

686'.3

r l ,512.8

r2,418.8
r2,444.2
r2,462.4

r l ,244.2
H>rl,250.9
r l ,249.3

rl,068.4
rl,075.7
rl,074.8

231.9
r231.8
r229.1

H)rl53.9
rl53.6
H51.8

0)143.6
H43.3
r!40.9

H67.1
H)rl67.4
rl66.1

E>p2,476.7

pi,250.2

E>pl,075.8

p227.7

p!49.5

p!38.2

pl63.9

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

H>r691 ."6

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| Q

Minor Economic
Process

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

Year
and
month

Q j

PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued

L, C, U

83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)

82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)

(Percent)

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials

(Percent)

L, L, L

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, Lg, U

L, L, L

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ©

7. Constant
(1972) dollars

8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

1979

86.9

88.4

79.46
82.10
84.53

44.67
45.69
46.65

39.59
39.07
39.46

5.73
7.62
7.66

256.55
264.17
271.84

69
77
78

85.*9

87.*5

77.58
80.39
79.07

42.34
43.55
42.53

37.96
38.74
37.93

4.57
2.46
3.83

276.41
278.87
282.70

76
76
70

85.*3

8^2

77.94
77.20
79.10

41.61
41.11
41.59

36.91
36.81
36,88

1.85
0.59
3.02

284.54
285.14
288.15

60
55
51

84.' 4

86.' 3

77.59
78.32
78.56

40.18
40.31
40.19

36.40
35.63
35.23

0.54
2.49
2.49

288.69
291.18
293.67

50
47
49

83'.4

85.8

83.58
83.15
79.39

41.75
41.10
39.26

36.67
36.84
33.95

3.92
2.50
1.88

297.58
300.08
301.96

48
42
45

77.9

January
February
March

78*. 8

73.38
69.00
70.33

36.16
33.89
34.21

31.22
30.26
30.04

-1.34
-3.30
-1.58

300.62
297.33
295.75

40
32
28

75.9

75.2

80.21
76.78
82.16

38.66
36.76
39.11

32.53
32.71
34.39

E>4.66
1.30
2.43

300.40
301.70
304.13

32
34
39

79.1

80.1

83.36
83.97
86.58

39.21
39.31

B>40.19

35.74
35.35
35.03

0.84
0.74
3.10

304.98
305.72
308.82

44
45
47

E>79.'9

E)82.'2

84.21
85.45
86.73

38.95
39.41
39.84

33.72
35.59
34.92

0.88
1.23
1.67

309.70
310.93
312.60

46
50
52

81.2

87.18
88.16
88.30

39.70
39.86
r39.69

35.52

79.8

35.45
0>r35.83

0.85
1.50
-0.48

313.45
314.95
314.48

|H>56
52
48

r79.*3

81 '.Z

E)89.70
r87.35
r86.28

40.10
r38.91
r38.28

35.67
34.16
r33.98

2.38
r0.52
r0.09

316.85
r317.37
[H>r317.46

46
48
43

P79.35

p34.99

p31.68

p-3.98

p313.48

38

*84

April
May
June

'83

July
August
September
October
November
December

*82

*81

1980
January
February
March

*80

April
May
June

*76

July
August
September
October
November
December

*76

*78

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

78

H>p78

(NA)

October
November
December

See note on page 60.
GraDhs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.




64

NOVEMBER 1981

IE4II

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| £ |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C C, C

C, C, C

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

C, L, C

75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods

(1967 = 100)

C, L, U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

• •
l i l

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

L, C, C

L, U L

L, L, L

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment ®

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol:)

(1st Q
1966 = 100)

12. Index of
net business
formation

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1979
January
February
March

277,843
279,296
287,792

159,861
159,114
162,480

151.3
151.8
153.4

71,402
71,702
72,590

45,421
45,152
45,312

69*2

72.1
73.9
68.4

April
May
June

283,691
293,314
292,232

158,487
162,124
160,123

149.3
152.2
152.1

72,610
73,198
73,496

44,960
44,990
44,787

62! 9

July
August
September

298,084
300,003
302,527

161,418
160,887
160,288

151.2
148.7
150.0

74,211
75,623
76,815

44,922
45,501
45,778

October
November
December

305,010
305,638
308,744

159,862
158,451
158,826

150.0
149.1
148.6

76,428
76,946
77,475

January
February
March

318,101
317,901
312,469

161,064
159,458
155,104

147.9
148.2
148.0

April
May
June

305,440
302,071
305,326

151,464
149,048
150,115

July
August
September

315,633
317,906
327,758

October
November
December

131.3
132.1
132.5

42,410
42,302
42,761

66.0
68.1
65.8

130.9
130.5
130.9

43,034
43,895
43,044

65^0

60.4
64.5
66.7

131.8
130.3
132.5

44,655
42,911
44,687

45,144
45,077
45,017

64*. 2

62.1
63.3
61.0

131.9
131.4
133.9

46,478
44,811
43,579

79,561
78,899
77,603

45,751
44,931
43,524

71'. 6

67.0
66.9
56.5

131.0
129.8
125.8

44,447
44,583
42,615

145.2
142.1
141.8

76,404
75,975
77,843

42,660
42,279
43,007

5CL7

52.7
51.7
58.7

120.5
117.8
114.8

42,461
41,974
39,746

152,645
150,945
154,613

142.1
142.9
144.5

79,491
79,829
80,620

43,700
43,433
43,251

58*. 7

62.3
67.3
73.7

115.3
117.7
120.6

44,058
43,266
46,488

335,873
339,049
343,752

156,734
156,772
157,566

146.3
148.1
147.1

81,552
82,764
83,443

43,518
43,907
43,917

66.1

75.0
76.7
64.5

119.6
119.2

E>121.3

47,225
46,888
48,297

January
February
March

349,018
350,334
349,898

158,527
H>159,522
158,775

146.9
147.8
148.3

85,463
86,810
87 s 608

44,768
45,166
0)45,182

E>75!6

71.4
66.9
66.5

118.1
117.2
117.8

45,864
47,662
47,927

April
May
June

350,923
349,245
354,442

157,941
156,601
158,501

148.9
150.7
150.3

85,855
85,501
87,384

44,164
43,892
44,721

63.*3

72.4
76.3
73.1

118.2
115.4
114.3

49,574
48,907
48,489

July
August
September

[H>r354,759
r352,783
p354,216

rl57,409
r!56,180
pl56,575

(H>rl50.7

rl49.6
r!48.3

87,350
[H)r88,591
r88,536

44,273
r44,788
r44,357

r72.*4

74.1
[H>77.2
73.1

pl!3.4
(NA)

[H>p50,433
(NA)

Octbber
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

p!47.0

p87,179

p43,568

.

1980

1981

70.3

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
.

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

L, L, L

L, L, L

Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

10. Current
dollars

20. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars

27. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

U, Lg, U

L, C, U

L, L, L

9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings1
Square feet of
floor space
(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space2
(Millions)

C Lg, Lg

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1979
January
February
March

26.19
26.30
30.28

15.43
15.67
18.35

21,25
23.30
25.78

12.74
14.05
15.95

85.78
104.38
94.15

7.97
9.70
8.75

2K45

April
May
June

26.14
23.60
25.28

15.23
13.69
14.69

21.38
22.06
22.33

12.70
12.88
13.15

96.06
89.32
86.61

8.92
8.30
8.05

21 !63

July
August
September

26.51
24.53
25.31

14.96
13.79

12.60
12.39
12.66

92.79
84.75
91.05

8.62
7.87
8.46

22.47

14.14

21.92
21.77
22.36

October
November
December

24.59
29.11
28.38

13.78
16.49
15.85

21.52
23.45
23.17

12.27
13.72
13.32

95.23
81.97
84.18

8.85
7.62
7.82

23!68

January
February
March

28.27
24.20
26.63

15.47
13.29
14.23

24.84
21.98
23.09

13.83
12.24
12.57

94.57
84.27
80.55

8.79
7.83
7.48

27*. 50

April
May
June

24.43
21.83
24.43

13.10
11.87
13.41

22.44
20.23
21.10

12.18
11.13
11.90

73.39
67.09
71.39

6.82
6.23
6.63

25!81

July
August
September

26.83
25.90
25.44

14.81
13.62
13.74

23.52
21.28
22.52

1H>13.32
11.54
12.43

71.40
68.63
68.47

6.63
6.38
6.36

24.12

October
November
December

r24.73
28.97
E>29.59

rl2.81
15.22
H>15.40

21.62
23.35
24.66

11.42
12.71
13.22

72.12
86.15
E>97.45

6.70
8.00

E)9.05

27.70
24.33
28.71

14.26
12.27
14.36

E>24.82
21.18
24.46

13.00
10.90
12.51

78.70
84.41
90.00

7.31
7.84
8.36

27^75

27.83
26.69
28.62

13.94
13.51
14.18

24.72
23.86
23.23

12.58
12.28
11.83

77.53
82.86
84.60

7.20
7.70
7.86

H>r28.44

July
August
September

28.06
r27.59
r26.53

14.00
rl3.92
rl3.68

24.23
r24.70
r23.03

12.36

H2.66
rl2.16

71.02
76.97
68.55

6.60
7.15
6.37

p26*.84

October
November
December

p26.04

p!2.95

p21.86

pi 1.15

72.32

6.72

67.52

69'.80

73*.25

76.47

1980

82'.36

86! 38

88J2
26.15
90 .*73

1981
January
February
March

........

April
May
June

93.'34

H)r96.56

p96*.26

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
2
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.




66

NOVEMBER 1981

ItO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j FIXED

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

C, Lg, Lg

61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, Lg

C Lg, U

69. Machinery
76. Index of
and equipment
industrial prosales and business duction, business
construction
equipment
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1967 = 100)

C Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

Nonresidential fixed investment i l 1972 dollars
86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

28. New
private housing
units started,
total

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
January
February
March

255.55

263.23
265.09
276.90

168.2
169.3
171.0

161.4

45*8

115*6

1,672
1,444
1,817

118.0
120.5
138.9

60*8

April
May
June

265.24

271.62
277.71
276.90

168.7
171.2
171.2

161! 3

48." 0

113*2

1,760
1,867
1,891

129.0
136.0
132.5

59*1

July
August
September

273J5

285.01
291.45
290.86

171.3
171.6
173.4

166! 4

49*4

117.0

1,758
1,777
1,844

123.9
128.5
132.3

58*6

October
November
December

284.30

294.99
291.39
300.25

172.3
172.6
174.1

164J

50.'7

113*5

1,697
1,502
1,563

119.6
103.1
101.3

58.'1

January
February
March

291.89

306.87
313.92
311.56

175.2
176.5
176.2

165*0

50.5

114.5

1,389
1,273
1,040

105.2
96.6
80.6

54*2

April
May
June

294.36

303.73
305.60
305.91

174.5
171.8
169.7

156*1

48.7

107*4

1,044
938
1,184

66.6
69.8
88.4

43*1

July
August
September

296.23

307.06
299.58
317.20

169.5
171.1
170.7

155*. 5

46*8

108.' 8

1,277
1,411
1,482

99.5
109.5

0)122.6

October
November
December

299.58

317.03
320.32
322.93

171.9
173.9
177.1

157.0

47.8

109.3

1,519
1,550
1,535

109.1
110.3
100.9

50.6

312.24

326.16
325.22
336.68

177.7
177.5
179.3

162.0

49.6

E>112.4

0)1,660
1,215
1,297

98.1
94.1
93.1

0)51.0

0)316,73

334.62
336.38
343.91

181.0
182.0
183.6

161.1

50*4

110*7

1,332
1,158
1,039

95.8
94.3
77.8

47.8

July
August
September

338.38
r346.89
[H)p347.14

[H>rl84.8

a322.96

[H>rl62.'8

0)51*3

rlli.*6

1,047
r941
r920

73.7
69.9
68.7

r43.3

October
November
December

(NA)

p!81.7

p857

58.3

a332*69

1980

44*7

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

H84.5
rl82.7

See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.


NOVEMBER 1981


67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

•

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

Inventory Investment

Timing Class

Year
and
month

INVENTORIES ANC INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Inventories on Hand and on Order

L L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars

36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars

31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total

38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Monthly
data

Smoothed
data1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Bil dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars

(Bil dol.)

70. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade

78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

(Ratio)

(Bil dol.)

(Bil dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

1979
January
February
March

15.'4

31.85
16.92
16.58

22.06
23.81
22.42

55.8
57.2
36.7

4.79
3.63
3.61

399.90
404.66
407.72

259.85
260.51
261.52

65.95
66.80
67.07

1.63
1.64
1.61

186.75
190.38
193.99

April
May
June

18! 4

27.38
2.34
19.98

21.04
17.86
16.00

61.8
52.6
55.1

4.40
1.54
2.71

412.87
417.26
421.85

262.97
263.77
265.08

67.86
68.10
68.90

1.66
1.63
1.66

198.39
199.93
202.64

15.02
-0.17
-16.60

14.51
12.03
5.51

88.3
39.2
19.6

1.46
2.56
1.33

429.21
432.48
434.12

267.21
267.56
266.29

69.52
69.81
70.79

1.66
1.66
1,66

204.10
206.66
207.99

-0.7

-2.32
-11.54
-18.70

-3.47
-8.26
-10.50

62.1
32.7
26.5

2.30
2.29
1.16

439.29
442.02
444.22

267.02
266.63
265.44

70.89
70.86
71.38

1.67
1.68
1.67

210.29
212.58
213.73

-0.9

-16.88
-13.13
2.39

-13.28
-15,97
-12.72

51.7
51,2
37.4

2.14
2.84
1.14

448.54
452.80
455.92

264.77
264.14
264.60

72.43
73.42
74.52

1.64
1.66
1.71

215.88
218.72
219.86

-4,62
-24.04
-23.92

-7.16
-6,94
-13.14

66.3
18.4
14.5

-0.92
-2.35
-2.24

461.44
462.98
464.19

266.02
265.24
264.73

75.99
76.67
77.10

1.76
1.78
1.76

218.94
216.59
214.35

July
August
September
October
November
December
1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

Y.3

July
August
September

-5.'6

-5.04
-7.49
-0.65

-17.60
-14,91
-8.27

31.7
25.4
30.7

2.07
-1.05
1.01

466.83
468.94
471.50

264.79
264.39
264.24

77.60
77.73
77.49

1.73
1.75
1.71

216.41
215.36
216.37

October
November
December

-7*.2

4.10
-2.64
-14.74

-2.87
-0.54
-2.08

25.4
15.2
3,8

0.96
0.29
0.62

473.62
474.88
475.20

264.33
264,10
262.97

77.25
77.44
76.56

1.69
1.68
1.67

217.33
217.62
218.24

January
February
March

-1,*4

-15.65
6.78
-4.40

-7.72
-9.44
-6.15

39.0
H>67.4
16.8

0.13
1.40
-0.25

478.45
484,07
485.47

262,81
262.86
262.64

76.20
11 Al
79.25

1.66
1.65
1.65

218.37
219.78
219.52

April
May
June

l6!8

3.85
7.70
|H>rl7,58

-1.17
2.23
r6.05

19.1
38.3
47.7

1.16
1.18
0.40

487.06
490.25
494.23

263.16
263.94
265.40

79.19
80.39
81.21

1.67
1.69
1.67

220.69
221.86
222.26

E>H4.'6

rll.51
rl.44
p5.99

rl0.99
(H>m.22
p8.24

46.5
r52.3
p57.1

1.91
-1.59

498.10
r502.46

E)p2.18

DP507.21

r266.51
r267.11
[H>p268.21

81.22
82.58
E>p83.78

rl.69
r l .71

H>pl.71

224.18
222.59
[H>p224.77

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1981

July
August
September
October
Nnwpmhpr
liUVCtilUol

(NA)
. . . . . ..

December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.




NOVEMBER 1981

IEO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

L, L, L

Year
and
month

Monthly
data

Smoothed
data2

(Percent)

Stock
Prices
U, L, L

92. Change in sensitive crude
materials prices

(Percent)

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials ©

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

18. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, Cf L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj»
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic income

(Percent)

3

( )

1979
January
February
March

0.62
3.07
2.98

1.11
1.23
1.87

258.3
273.5
288.5

99.71
98.23
100.11

164 *. 6

ioi!6

113 . 4
*

7O.'l

11.*9

April
May
June

0.88
2.67
3.25

2.27
2.24
2.22

294.5
293.8
293.9

102.07
99.73
101.73

164.6

9^9

11CL2

66.9

n'.'s

July
August
September

1.18
0.38
3.39

2.32
1.98
1.63

297.3
298.1
297.3

102.71
107.36
108.60

173^6

101.8

111*'. 1

65^7

11.4

October
November
December

2.79
1.98
2.11

1.92
2.45

104.47
103.66
107.78

168^2

96*. 7

102^2

59.4

11 !i

2.51

307.7
304.0
309.6

January
February
March

2.99
2.43
-1.22

2.33
2.44
1.96

316.2
322.5
316.9

110.87
115.34
104.69

182". 9

1O6!6

60.1

ii.'5

April
May
June

0.26
-0.09
0.02

0.94
0.07
-0.14

301.9
278.5
267.5

102.97
107.69
114.55

146.5

80." 3

97.*8

54! i

9.'i

July
August
September

2.26
2.35
1.98

0.40
1.14
1.87

277.6
292.1
298.3

119.83
123.50
126.51

159.1

85.*5

9^4

54^6

io!6

October
November
December

2.60
2.45
1.56

2.25
2.33
2.27

300.8
0)304.7
298.4

130.22
0)135.65
133.48

164.3

86.6

98.1

52.2

10*3

2.49
0)7.84
-0.43

2.18
3.06
0)3.63

291.6
284.2
289.8

132.97
128.40
133.19

H>169.*2

0)87.8

0)115.3

0)60*2

0)1O.'3

1.34
1.96
r-0.72

3.11
1.94
rO. 91

293.0
288.9
282.9

134.43
131.73
132.28

152.7

r77.4

113.9

58.2

9.2

July
August
September

r0.02
0.04
0.83

r0.64
0.10
r0.04

286.6
289.5
283.0

129.13
129.63
118.27

p!53.*5

p76.*5

pll3.*8

p57.'6

p9*.l

October
November
December

-0.88

0.15

277.2
"271.4

1980

10^6

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

5

119.80
122.94

See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights
1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
beginning with data for June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by
permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. See "New Features and Changes for
This Issue," page iii. "Average for November 2 through 20, excluding weekends. 5Average for November 4, 11, and 18.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

K M

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

Timing Class

U, L, L

81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income l
(Percent)

L, L, L

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

L, L, L

L, L, L

15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations

26. Ratio, price
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector

(Cents)

(1977 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

L, L, L

Net cash flow, corporate
34. Current
dollars

35. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations

(1977 = 100)

(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

62. Index of
labor cost per
unit of output,
manufacturing

(1967 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
income

(Percent)

1979
January
February
March

7.*5

5*9

97.6

247.4

147*9

115*4

1.052

170.2
171.6
171.7

74.'l

April
May
June

6*9

5*6

97.0

252*0

147*4

118*5

1.079

176.4
173.9
174.6

74*5

July
August
September

6.3

5*8

96.6

266*1

152*5

1.104

175.7
177.3
177.7

74." 3

October
November
December

5*7

5*4

96*2

262*9

148*6

124.3

1.135

178.9
180.0
181.7

74*7

January
February
March

5.5

5*6

96^5

280.7

155.2

127*0

1.158

182.8
184.8
186.9

74*6

April
May
June

5*5

4.*4

95*8

246.'1

132.2

131**3

1.193

190.3
194.7
198.7

75.8

July
August
September

5*4

4*.6

96.4

262*9

1 38 . 6
*

133*9

1.203

200.3
200.5
199.9

75*3

October
November
December

5.*3

4.9

96*4

272.0

141.1

137.0

1.230

199.7
200.3
200.6

75*4

6*. 4

5.'6

[R>97*.3

E>282*.4

139.4

1.244

202.8
204.1
204.8

75.2

r96.*9

27CL5

rl34.*6

rl41.*6

1.266

206.5
207.5
r208.7

75*5

p96,8

p276.4

p!35.*O

H>P145.1

H>pl.295

r209.1
r210.8
r213.5

p75.5

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

0)6*5

p6.*3

(NA)

October
November
December

H>p215.5

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
X

1VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.




70

NOVEMBER 1 9 8 1

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

Timing Class

L, L, L

85. Change in
money supply
(Ml-B)
Year
and
month

102. Change
in money
supply (M2)

104. Change in total liquid assets
Monthly
data

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, C, U

Smoothed
data 1

(Percent)

Credit Flows

Velocity of Money

(Percent)

105. Money
supply (Ml-B)
in 1972
dollars

L, L, L

106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

C, C, C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml-B)

(Ratio)

C, Lg, C

L L, L

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

1979
January
February
March

0.16
0.30
0.82

0.53
0.62
0.84

0.86
0.88
1.06

1.09
1.04
0.94

222.4
220.8
220.6

860.7
857.4
856.8

6.386

1.308
1.312
1.316

100.76
82.08
88.07

April
May
June

1.52

0.00
1.07

0.98
0.68
0.95

1.07
1.07
1.38

0.97
1.04
1.12

221.9
219.6
219.7

857.0
853.9
853.2

6.319

1.308
1.307
1.308

74.04
91.75
94.55

0.98
0.60
0.49

0.85
0.85
0.77

0.83
0.85
1.15

1.13
1.06
0.98

219.3
218.3
216.8

850.7
848.9
845.5

6.358

1.318
1.321
1.319

87.29
85.08
87.31

0.21
0.39
0.46

0.27
0.42
0.53

0.56
0.37
0.50

0.90
0.77
0.58

215.0
213.4
211.9

838.7
833.0
827.7

6.421

1.331
1.340
1.345

103.60
77.03
51.55

0.56
1.07
-0.05

0.89
0.96
0.40

1.10
1.11
0.52

0.57
0.78
0.91

210.2
209.7
206.9

823.6
820.9
813.2

6.504

1.350
1.343
1.347

98.03
67.72
70.62

-1.44
0.08
0.92

-0.38
0.94
1.35

0.36
0.60
0.65

0.79
0.58
0.52

202.1
200.5
200.4

803.1
803.7
806.5

6.536

1.353
1.348
1.338

50.44
15.62
8.45

July
August
September

1.11
E>1.90
1.20

H>1.55
1.20
0.70

0.79
1.19
0.77

0.61
0.78
0.90

202.5
204.8
205.1

818.4
(H)822.0
819.2

6.496

1.339
1.334
1.341

43.60
63.96
75.91

October
November
December

1.09
0.67
-0.84

0.55
0.88
0.05

0.74
1.27
0.97

0.91
0.91
0.96

[H)205.2
204.3
200.7

815.3
813.5
806.1

6.548

1.351
1.353
1.364

H)95.42
76.79
67.67

0.87
0.48
1.09

0.68
0.89
1.35

[H}1.27
1.03
0.48

1.08
B>1.13
1.01

200.9
200.0
201.0

805.7
805.1
811.1

6.759

1.369
1.367
1.362

58.92
64.28
r43.25

April
May
June

1.86
-0.51
-0.63

1.13
0.30
0.34

0.51
0.91

r0.92

0.80
0.65
rO.71

203.8
201.4
198.8

816.9
813.9
810.9

6.691

1 .354
1.358
1.363

r54.54
34.99
r46.48

July
August
September

0.30
rO.63
-0.23

0.62
0.97
rO.55

r0.66
el.12
re0.77

r0.80
re0.86
re0.88

197.0
196.6
193.9

806.3
807.4
r802.5

E>r6.850

October
November
December

pO.30
2
0.05

pO.76

e0.49

e0.82

p!93.8

p805.7

July
August
September

~

October
November
December
1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

•

-

1981
January
February
March

H>rl.378

r42.32
r34.20
p26.33

pi.376

(NA)

1.374
rl.375

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
1

Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Average for weeks ended November 4 and 11.

2


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

I R |

Minor Economic
Process

Credit Flows-Continued

Timing Class

L, L, L

112. Net change
in bank loans
to businesses
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

113. Net
change in
consumer installment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Credit Difficulties

L, L, L

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures ©

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Bank Reserves

L, L, L

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans

(Percent)

Interest Rates

L, U, U

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, Lg

C Lg, Lg

93. Free
reserves ©

94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve ®

119. Federal
funds rate ©

114. Treasury
bill rate ©

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1979

39.31
33.07
5.76

50.57
50.64
40.20

338,468

182.22
177.09
187.76

2.12
2.31
2.33

-692
-764
-742

994
973
999

10.07
10.06
10.09

9.35
9.27
9.46

39.62
31.99
23.23

45.71
37.99
31.33

372,224

242.76
200.45
273.17

2.43
2.37
2.45

-899
-1,490
-1,175

897
1,777
1,396

10.01
10.24
10.29

9.49
9.58
9.05

July
August
September

40.55
30.54
43.36

33.79
32.77
48.10

391,992

212.20
287.44
186.20

2.45
2.47
2.59

-989
-904
-1,339

1,179
1,097
1,344

10.47
10.94
11.43

9.26
9.45
10.18

October
November
December

3.72
-21.10
4.55

36.40
32.33
24.40

296,156

395.75
184.31
138.02

2.45
2.50
2.64

-1,750
-1,751
-1,079

2,022
1,906
1,473

13.77
13.18
13.78

11.47
11.87
12.07

55.48
35.83
-1.52

32.72
28.84
7.85

351,960

243.15
190.79
274.24

2.37
2.32
2.53

-999
-1,465
-2,638

1,241
1,655
2,824

13.82
14.13
17.19

12.04
12.81
15.53

2.47
-38.96
2.14

-20.05
-32.12
-24.54

192,484

428.15
381.15
436.68

2.53
2.64
2.74

-2,261
-835
-169

2,455
1,018
380

17.61
10.98
9.47

14.00
9.15
7.00

July
August
September

13.06
30.23
29.86

-14.39
5.87
12.66

284,096

445.69
345.41
1,002.94

2.77
2.94
2.70

-111
-357
-1,055

395
659
1,311

9.03
9.61
10.87

8.13
9.26
10.32

October
November
December

29.81
35.66
41.15

8.42
10.07
19.43

341,988

359.24
0)239.34
288.30

2.53
2.66
2.57

p-1,018
p-1,201
p-1,587

pi,335
0>p2,156
pi,617

12.81
15.85
18.90

11.58
13.89
15.66

0.66
-13.32
-23.04

10.43
23.95

0)37.30

305,840

341.36
789.20
485.34

2.42
2.51
2.53

p-916
p-1,076
p-624

pi ,405
pi,278
pi,004

19.08
15.93
14.70

14.72
14.90
13.48

29.32
0)49.61
19.72

27.97
16.15
23.16

536.88
(NA)

2.40
2.40
2.30

p-1,261
0)p-2,O23
p-1,488

pi,343

0)p354,528

P 2,154

p2,038

15.72
18.52
0)19.10

13.63
0)16.30
14.56

July
August
September

45.16
r30.36
r32.11

23.45
34.31
33.83

(NA)

E>2.22
2.35
2.28

p-1,369
p-1,137
p-1,073

pi,751
pi,408
pi ,473

19.04
17.82
15.87

14.70
15.61
14.95

October
November
December

p20.17
X
8.83

(NA)

(NA)

p-1,032
2
-633

pi,149
2
921

January
February
March

.

April
May
June

1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

2

15.08
13.99

13.87
11.27

3

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.
l

Average for weeks ended November 4 and 11.
Average for weeks ended November 4, 11, and 18.
Average for weeks ended November 5, 12, 19, and 26.

2

3




72

NOVEMBER 1981

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

I M

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Interest Rates-Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg

116. Corporate
bond yields ©

C Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

115. Treasury
bond yields ®

117. Municipal
bond yields ©

Year
and
month
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Outstanding Debt

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages ©

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business loans

(Percent)

(Percent)

®

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ©

66. Consumer
installment

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

credit

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil. dol.)

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
to personal
income

(Percent)

1979
January
February
March

9.47
9.52
9.65

8.43
8.43
8.45

6.47
6.31
6.33

10.24
10.24
10.26

12,27

11.75
11.75
11.75

269,107
273,327
276,677

134,984
137,740
138,220

14.58
14.67
14.68

April
May
June

9.69
9.82

6.29
6.25
6.13

(NA)
10.61
10.49

12.34

9.51

8.44
8.55
8.32

11.75
11.75
11.65

280,486
283,652
286,263

141,522
144,188
146,124

14.83
14.90
14.88

July
August
September

9.47
9.57
9.87

8.35
8.42
8.68

6.13
6.20
6.52

10.46
10.58
11.37

12.'31

11.54
11.91
12.90

289,079
291,810
295,818

149,503
152,048
155,661

14.79
14.78
14,88

October
November
December

11.17
11.52
11.30

9.44
9.80
9.58

7.08
7.30
7.22

(NA)
12.41
12.24

15.'81

14.39
15.55
15.30

298,851
301,545
303,578

155,971
154,213
154,592

14.86
14.83
14.80

January
February
March

11.65
13.23
14.08

10.03
11.55
11.87

7.35
8.16
9.17

12.60
(NA)
14.63

15.67

15.25
15.63
18.31

306,305
308,708
309,362

159,215
162,201
162,074

14.75
14.80
14.72

April
May
June

13.36
11.61
11.12

10.83
9.82
9.40

8.63
7.59
7.63

13.45
11.99
11.85

17^75

19.77
16.57
12.63

307,691
305,014
302,969

162,280
159,033
159,211

14.64
14.43
14.24

July
August
September

11.48
12.31
12.74

9.83
10.53
10.94

8.13
8.67
8.94

12.39
13.54
14.26

11.56

11.48
11.12
12.23

301,770
302,259
303,314

160,299
162,818
165,306

13.96
13.87
13.75

October
November
December

13.17
14.10
14.38

11.20
11.83
11.89

9.11
9.56
10.20

14.38
14.47
14.08

15.71

13.79
16.06
20.35

304,016
304,855
306,474

167,790
170,762
174,191

13.61
13.50
13.46

January
February
March

14.01
14.60
14.49

11.65
12.23
12.15

9.68
10.10
10.16

14.23
14.79
15.04

19^91

20.16
19.43
18.05

307,343
309,339
312,447

174,246
173,136
171,216

13.36
13.34
13.35

April
May
June

15.00
15.68
14.97

12.62
12.96
12.39

10.62
10.78
10.67

15.91
16.33
16.31

19.99

17.15
19.61
20.03

314,778
316,124
318,054

173,659
177,793
179,436

13.37
13.35
13.34

July
August
September

15.67
16.34
[H>16.97

13.05
13.61

11.14
12.26

16.76
17.96

0)14.14

0)12.92

0)18.55

20.39
[H>20.50
20.08

320,008
322,867
0)325,686

183,199
rl85,729
r!88,405

rl3.21
pl3.23

October
November
December

16.96

12.83
11.86

17.43

18.45
17.07

(NA)

0)pl9O,O86
"190,822

1980

1981

1

14.13
12.86

2

0)r21.11

3

13.23'

(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
1
Average for weeks ended November 6, 13, and 20.
Average for weeks ended November 4 and 11.

2

Average for weeks ended November 5, 12, and 19.

3

Average for November 1 through 24.

4


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q

Year
and
month

950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104,
106)

1-month
span

6-month
span

January
February
March

58.3
41.7
66.7

33.3
41.7
41.7

April
May
June

25.0
45.8
41.7

July
August
September
October
November
December

DIFFUSION INDEXES

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 70, 72, 91,
95, 109)

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)

962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th x
(51 areas)

963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(172 industries)

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

25.0
75.0
100.0

75.0
87.5
50.0

83.3
75.0
75.0

100,0
100.0
100.0

30.0
57.5
72.5

22.5
17.5
20.0

11,8
72.5
68,6

46.1
27.5
25.5

65.1
66.0
64.2

72.1
71.8
70.1

41.7
33.3
29.2

12.5
75.0
75.0

75.0
50.0
25.0

91.7
75.0
83.3

83.3
100.0
100.0

2.5
90.0
47.5

12.5
35.0
27.5

7.8
66.7
66.7

56.9
49.0
31.4

54.1
60.5
62.5

64.8
59.6
54.4

45.8
29.2
54.2

37.5
33.3
45.8

100.0
50.0
50.0

100.0
50.0
75.0

66.7
83.3
75.0

100.0
83.3
75.0

62.5
37.5
52.5

45.0
20.0
70.0

37.3
54.9
86.3

21.6
25.5
47.1

57.0
53.2
49.1

56.7
51.5
52.0

16.7
20.8
41.7

41.7
45.8
16.7

62.5
50.0
100.0

75.0
75.0
25.0

83.3
41.7
50.0

50.0
66.7
50.0

32.5
52.5
45.0

27.5
12.5
17.5

9.8
53.9
68.6

35,3
33.3
5.9

61.6
49.4
49.7

50.6
51.2
47.7

January
February
March

41.7
29.2
33.3

0.0
16.7
8.3

100.0
25.0
0.0

25.0
0.0
0.0

41.7
66.7
50.0

50.0
58.3
33.3

65.0
32.5
5.0

15.0
2.5
0.0

23.5
60.8
46.1

2.0
2.0
9.8

52.6
53.2
49.4

40.4
33.4
30.8

April
May
June

12.5
33.3
50.0

16.7
45.8
41.7

0.0
0.0
25.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

66.7
33.3
33.3

41.7
50.0
33.3

70.0
22.5
25.0

15.0
7.5
20.0

3.9
33.3
70.6

19.6
3.9
7.8

34.6
32.8
31.4

24.7
26.2
28.2

July
August
September

83.3
83.3
91.7

75.0
100.0
91.7

25.0
75.0
100.0

50.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
33.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
50.0

25.0
92.5
62.5

32.5
72.5
75.0

62.7
84.3
13.7

58.8
21.6
96.1

36.9
64.8
64.0

35.2
45.1
61.0

October
November
December

62.5
70.8
50.0

75.0
66.7
75.0

100.0
87.5
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

50.0
50.0
66.7

50.0
50.0
50.0

62.5
80.0
67.5

85.0
92.5
95.0

76.5
96.1
5.9

96.1
90.2
88.2

61.3
63.4
56.7

73.5
72.7
65.4

January
February
March

16.7
41.7
70.8

66.7
45.8
41.7

100.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
75.0
100.0

33.3
33.3
50.0

50.0
66.7
50.0

77.5
17.5
60.0

100.0
97.5
82.5

86.3
39.2
31.4

76.5
81.4
70.6

59.6
55.8
52.3

68.6
68.6
67.2

April
May
June

75.0
16.7
45.8

37.5
45.5
2
9.1

50.0
75.0
100.0

75.0
75.0
50.0

83.3
83.3
66.7

83.3
66.7
83.3

75.0
72.5

r67.5
r20.0
pl5.0

64.7
76.5
17.6

19.6
pl9.6
(NA)

69.8
62.5
51.5

70.3
r67.7
r71.2

87.5

40.0
r55.0
15.0

r58.8
p9.8

67.2

p53.2

r49.7
r57.0

p50.0

(NA)

p33.1

1-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1979

1980

1981

July
August
September

2

3

October
November
December

25.0
50.0
2
9.1
40.0

2

3

10.0

50.0
r37.5
50.0
"33.3

A

66.7

83.3
r66.7
83.3
5

62.5

5

15.0

68.6

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1

Figures are the
Excludes series
3
Excludes series
''Excludes series
5
Excludes series
2

percent of components declining.
12 for which data are not yet available.
12 and 36 for which data are not yet available.
57 for which data are not yet available.
70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.




74

NOVEMBER

1981

IU II

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

D

1 DIFFUSION NDEXES—Continued

964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries) l

Year
and
month

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)

4-Q moving
average

966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)

1-month
span

6-month
span

967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials ®
(13 industrial materials)

1-quarter
span

9-month
span

51.4
57.1
67.1

80.0
77.1
67.1

50

April
May
June

31.4
71.4
31.4

68.6
60.0
57.1

42

July
August
September

42.9
45.7
65.7

60.0
42.9
74.3

48

October
November
December

42.9
54.3
54.3

61.4
57.1
37.1

53

January
February
March

68.6
48.6
37.1

22.9
22.9
42.9

65

April
May
June

17.1
37.1
45.7

45.7
62.9
37.1

18

July
August
September

77.1
42.9
82.9

45.7
62.9
82.9

27

October
November
December

71.4
57.1
58.6

85.7
88.6
82.9

53

January
February
March

45.7
42.9
52.9

85.3
70.6
73.5

50

April
May
June

65.7
50.0
50.0

52.9
r44.1
p36.8

r65

•. .

1-month
span

9-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing3®
(about 700 companies)

n

( )

1979
January
February
March

1-month
span
5

1-month
span

968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks 2 ®

(4-quarter span)

48

62.5
54.2
70.8

62.5
66.7
50.0

61.5
76.9
76.9

96.2
96.2
88.5

94.8
35.5
85.5

18.2
32.7
57.4

*71

56.2
54.2
45.8

69.2
42.3
53.8

80.8
84.6
"91.7

80.0
16.4
90.0

90.7
88.9
75.0

*74

'48

16.7
62.5
56.2

66.7
50.0
54.2

46.2

*52

52.1
39.6
45.8

30.8
53.8

"66.7
"66.7
"58.3

64.8
92.6
53.7

63.0
68.5
68.5

'63

*46

64.6
52.1
58.3

66.7
62.5
41.7

"62.5
61.5
76.9

"66.7
"58.3
"58.3

3.7
38.0
95.4

69.8
37.7
39.6

'54

*41*

70.8
20.8
41.7

25.0
16.7
12.5

50.0
73.1
61.5

"58.3
"50.0
53.8

74.1
52.8
3.8

39.6
47.2
77.4

56

*41

16.7
16.7
14.6

16.7
12.5
16.7

11.5
15.4
0.0

50.0
46.2
46.2

26.4
92.5
89.6

90.6
94.3
86.8

56

37.5
70.8
87.5

53.8
76.9
57.7

46.2
42.3
38.5

92.5
88.7
76.4

84.9
96.2
94.3

*60

'37

39.6
70.8
66.7

r49

79.2
91.7
66.7

95.8
95.8
95.8

65.4
53.8
46.2

61.5
65.4
65.4

43.4
55.7
15.1

90.6
88.7
86.8

*64

p52

83.3
62.5
45.8

79.2
70.8
58.3

30.8
30.8
65.4

38.5
38.5
46.2

66.0
42.5
85.8

79.2
67.3
59.6

56.2
62.5
45.8

54.2

r58.3
r50.0

69.2
26.9
38.5

46.2
46.2
53.8

81.1
30.2
67.3

59.6
44.2
42.3

r87.5

p!8.8

61.5

19.2
40.4
0.0

1980

1981

July
August
September

41.2
35.3
r44.1

October
November
December

p41.2

p39

61.5
61.5
42.3

" r54.2
rl2.5
pl6.7
6

38.5
26.9

6

58.7

See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 35 industries through April 1981 and on 34 industries thereafter.
2
Based on 58 industries for January 1979, on 55 industries through June 1979, on 54 industries through January 1980, on 53 industries
through May 1981, and on 52 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
3
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
4
Based on 12 components (excluding rosin).
5
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
6
Based on average for November 3, 10, and 17.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

7
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q |

971. New orders, manufacturing l ©

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (18 industries)

Year
and
quarter

a. Actual
expenditures

(1-Q span)

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

b. Later
anticipations

c. Early
anticipations

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

Actual

Actua

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade * ®

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade 1 ©

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

72.7
90.9
72.7
86.4

81.8
81.8
77.3
75.0

70.5
59.1
86.4
72.7

83
86
86
86

82
83
88
86

73
76
78
78

79
82
84
83

84
86
88
88

86
87
92
90

86.4
68.2
68.2
88.6

52.3
63.6
63.6
47.7

63.6
50.0
68.2
77.3

85
81
73
78

80
84
80
72

78
74
70
72

78
82
80
70

87
84
82
82

85
88
84
78

77.3
59.1
50.0
54.5

54.5
45.5
36.4
40.9

81.8
59.1
81.8
77.3

74
63
60
60

66
75
57
62

62
54
57
56

66
73
59
61

73
62
68
66

72
80
63
67

72.7
63.6
(NA)

72.7
40.9
54.5

70.5
68.2
77.3
68.2

68
70
(NA)

74
74
76
76

60
66
(NA)

70
69
74
72

70
74
(NA)

78
76
80
80

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

Q
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade' ©

Year
and
quarter

Anticipated

Actual

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade' @
Anticipated

Actual

DIFFUSION NDEXES-Continued
976. Selling prices, manufacturing ' ©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
tradel ®

Actua 1

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

62
64
64
63

59
60
62
62

76
76
76
78

67
70
73
74

....

62
60
60
58

60
60
58
56

80
76
73
75

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

58
54
53
51

54
56
48
50

51
53
(NA)

56
54
56
55

Anticipated

978. Selling prices, retail
tradel ©
Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

87
88
90
91

82
84
87
87

89
92
93
94

84
90
87
90

91
94
94
93

90
88
92
92

70
74
71
68

92
93
92
94

86
88
88
86

96
95
95
96

88
90
92
90

94
95
94
96

90
92
92
90

67
61
64
60

62
70
53
56

90
88
90
90

87
90
83
86

92
90
92
90

90
92
87
88

92
91
94
90

90
93
84
90

62
64
(NA)

63
61
66
64

88
86
(NA)

88
90
89
84

90
88
(NA)

90
89
89
84

94
90
(NA)

90
90
92
87

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1979
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1980

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on silrveys of about 1,400 business executives.




76

NOVEMBER 1981

Dun §

ItO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

H I

NDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
S L C E DIFFUSION 1
EE T D

Diffusion index components

1981

April

March

May

June

961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(Average weekly hours)

All manufacturing industries

+

Percent rising of 20 components

39.9

40.2

(60)

+

40.3

40.1

(72)

(75)

0ctoberp

September r

August

July
1

_

40.0

(55)

(40)

(15)

39.3

40.0

0

+

39.4
(50)

(15)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

0
o

39.1
38.6

+
+

39.6
38.8

+
+

39.8
39.0

_

39.0
38.9

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

+
+

40.7
41.0

+
+

41.2
41.2

_

41.0
41.0

-

40.8
40.8

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

+
+

40.4
40.9

+

40.9
41.3

0
+

40.9
41.4

-

Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

+
+

40.0
40 9

+
+

40.2
42 0

+

40.4
41 8

-

40.2
41 4

+

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

0
+

40.5
38.7

40.1
38.9

+
+

40.4
39.2

0

40.4
39.1

+
+

40.5
39.2

+

+

-

39.7
37.2

+
0

40.1
37.2

+

40.0
38.6

-

39.8
38.5

+

39.4
38.6

39.9
35.7

-

39.8
35.5

+
+

40.5
36.0

40.7
41.1

37.2
37.4

38.8
38.5

37.5
37.4

+

40.8
r40.7

40.3
40.4

0
+

40.5
41.2

39.4
40.2

+
+

39.9
40.5

40.5
41 2

+

r40.4
41 3

39.5
39 8

+
o

39.7
39 8

r40.8
r39.1

40.5
38.5

+

40.4
38.9

0
+

39.4
r40.7

39.2
40.1

+

39.3
39.2

40.4
35.9

0

38.6
r38.6

40.5
41.1

+

+

40.9
40.5

_

+

r40.3
36.1

'39.0
35.2

+
+

39.3
35.6

r42.7
37.3

+

43.2
37.2

42.3
37.1

41.7
42.8

+
+

42.4
42.9

41.3
42.6

o

40.1
39.8

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

+

40.2
36.1

+

+

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

0

42.4
37.1

+
+

42.6
37.3

+
+

42.8
37.6

-

42.7
37.4

0

42.7
37.3

0
0

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

-

41.5
43.5

0
+

41.5
44.1

+

41.7
43.8

0

41.7
43.4

+

41.8
43.1

-

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

+
+

40.5
37.1

+

40.7
36.6

+
+

41.3
37.1

41.0
37.4

-

40.5
36.5

+
+

40.6
r36.9

-

r87,350

+

39.6
36.2

+
+

40.2
36.9

964. VALUE O MANUFACTURERS' N WORDERS, DURABLE G O S INDUSTRIES ' 2
F
E
O D
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

+

Percent rising of 35 components

86,729

+

(53)

88,303
3

(50)

+

11,324
10,979

+

+

+
+

17,504
11,960

_

17,082
11,721

+
+

17,303
12,600

-

+

18,698
16,896

20,093
16,852

+

19,057
17,040

+
+

+

19,428
16,600

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and " N A " , not available.

89,696
3

(50)

11,809
10,607

16,740
11,666

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

3

+

+

+
+

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

88,164

11,831
10,291

+

-

+

(66)

11,739
10,556

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

87,180

3

(41)

12,466
10,804

_

16,376
12,055

+

20,909
17,086

-

-

86,278
3

(35)

-

79,351
3

(44)

(41)

11,602
9,901

+

11,422
10,054

r!7,658
11,920

+

17,498
12,487

-

16,547
10,625

20,375
15,894

+

18,627
16,190

+

16,037
16,412

( + ) = rising, ( o ) = unchanged, and ( —) = falling.

10,328
9,402

The " r " indicates revised; " p " ,

x

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are included in the totals and directions
of change for the six major industry groups shown here.
3
Based on 34 components.
2


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

| 2 |

S L C E DIFFUSION INDEX C M O E T : Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued
EE T D
O P NNS

Diffusion index components

1981

March

April

May

July

June

Augustr

September1^

OctoberP

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION »
(1967 = 100)

+

All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components

152.1

151.9

(46)

2

(56)

+

152.7

+

(62)

152.9

+

153.6

151.8

149.5

(88)

(46)

H53.9

(54)

(12)

(17)

119.3
163.3

112.8
159.2

(NA)
(NA)

148.2
113.2

146.8
108.4

(NA)
102.2

139.9
176.4

137.6
173.9

134.1
172.6
178.0
110.7

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+

125.6
155.6

Clay glass and stone products
Primary metals

+

154.6
114.9

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery

+
+

139.2
169.2

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

+
+

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

+
+

122.5
162.4

+
+

122.9
164.9

148.1
107.4

+
+

H48.7
109 4

+
+

139.3
174.1

+
+

r!40.1
176.7

179.9
123.7

+

180.1
123.4

+

180.9
119.8

+

181.9
115.2

179.6
114.0

170.6
157.0

+
+

171.3
158.8

+
+

172.1
159.4

+

172.3
158.6

170.8
156.2

152.2
122.3

151.3
120 9

+
+

r!51.6
r!21 3

+
+

151.9
123 8

151.1
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

138.8
122 6

138.3
121 1

+
+

H39.4
122 6

+
+

140.7
123 7

137.7
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

153.4
143.1

+
+

154.9
144.4

+
+

156.7
146.1

158.4
146.4

154.6
145.6

218.4
129.3

+

r221.5
128.7

+

219.4
130.7

217.1
128.4

(NA)
126.1

285.1
68.4

+
+

285.3
70.1

+

285.9
68.6

280.4
67.9

(NA)
(NA)

123.9
168.4

120.1
159.9

126.3
158.7

+

126.2
158.9

154.3
110.6

+

151.7
111.9

+
+

139.5
169.7

+

138.4
172.1

177.4
119.5

+
+

178.8
121.3

+
+

170.0
155.4

o
+

170.0
157.3

+

+

+

152.4
125.7

151.9
122.2

+
+

138.9
121 6

+

+

+

+

169.7
156.3

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

136.2
120 2
+

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

+
+

157.6
142.7
218.5
130.3

+

155.9
141.3

157.0
141.6
+

269.5
68.8

+
+

+

219.8
130.0

+

275.2
68.9

+
+

280.3
69.8

123.1
75.9

+
+

125.0
77.0

123.5
122.9

+
+

r!23.6
170.0

+

+

146.1
133.7

+

146.2
132.2

+
+

148.2
132.7

+

H47.7
rl33.3

+

220.6
129.8
+

+
+

Mining:
Metal mining
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

131.1
151.2
+

144.1
138.8

+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

147.8
129.2

+

( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( —) = falling.

148.5
127.0

+
+

x

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78

149.1
(NA)

The "r" indicates revised; " p "

2




(NA)
161.8

NOVEMBER 1 9 8 1

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued

j Q
Diffusion index components

1981
April

March

May

July

June

967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) ....

+

289.8

+

(65)

Percent rising of 13 components

293.0

-

288.9

-

282.9

(27)

(69)

+

(38)

August

September

October

November1

2

286.6

+

(62)

289.5

-

(62)

283.0

-

(42)

277.2

-

(38)

271.4
(27)

Dollars

Copper scrap

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.676
1.490

+

0.682
1.504

-

0.664
1.464

-

0.646
1.424

Lead scrap

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.233
0.514

+

0.249
0.549

o

0.249
0.549

+

0.250
0.551

Steel scrap

(U.S. ton).,
(metric ton)..

+ 106.600
117.505

+ 109.000
120.151

-

99.000
109.128

-

0.635
1.400

+

0.650
1.433

-

0.620
1.367

-

0.609
1.343

-

0.598
1.318

+

0.269
0.593

+

0.292
0.644

-

0.271
0.597

-

0.247
0.545

-

0.225
0.496

93.800
103.396

+

95.750
105.545

+ 102.000
112.435

-

98.000
108.025

-

88.500
97.554

-

80.000
88.184

Tin

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

6.280
13.845

-

6.248
13.774

-

5.945
13.106

-

5.796
12.778

+

6.030
13.294

+

6.528
14.392

+

6.746
14.872

+

6.820
15.035

+

7.000
15.432

Zinc

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.420
0.926

+

0.436
0.961

+

0.463
1.021

o

0.463
1.021

+

0.466
1.027

+

0.495
1.091

+

0.499
1.100

-

0.479
1.056

o

0.479
1.056

Burlap

(yard)..
(meter)..

+

0.275
0.301

+

0.280
0.306

-

0.267
0.292

0.251
0.274

-

0.246
0.269

-

0.243
0.266

+

0.246
0.269

-

0.242
0.265

-

0.240
0.262

Cotton

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.816
1.799

-

0.814
1.795

-

0.782
1.724

+

0.790
1.742

-

0.751
1.656

-

0.669
1.475

-

0.609
1.343

-

0.608
1.340

-

0.583
1.285

Print cloth

(yard).,
(meter)..

+

0.752
0.822

+

0.784
0.857

+

0.841
0.920

-

0.820
0.897

+

0.822
0.899

+

0.845
0.924

o

0.845
0.924

-

0.820
0.897

-

0.780
0.853

Wool tops

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

+

3.630
8.003

-

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

Hides

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.528
1.164

+

0.549
1.210

-

0.522
1.151

-

0.458
1.010

+

0.472
1.041

+

0.474
1.045

+

0.486
1.071

+

0.525
1.157

+

0.560
1.235

o

45.000
99.207

o

45.000
99.207

o

45.000
99.207

+

46.500
102.514

o

46.500
102.514

o

46.500
102.514

-

46.100
101.632

+

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

0.450
0.992

+

0.464
1.023

0.187
0.412

+

0.190
0.419

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

Rubber

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.652
1.437

Tallow

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.171
0.377

0.603
1.329
+

0.176
0.388

0.584
1.287

0.590
1.301
-

0.175
0.386

+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

0.178
0.392

0.554
1.221
+

0.192
0.423

0.538
1.186
-

0.190
0.419

-

( + ) =-- rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - )

= falling.

0.455
1.003
-

0.179
0.395

The "r" indicates revised: "p",

1

Average for November 3, 10, and 17.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Beginning with June 1981,
these series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from the Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

ii
Year
and
quarter

(Ann . rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

b. Difference

a. Tota1

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

217. Per capita
G P in 1972
N

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars
a. Total

GNP AND F RSONAL INCOME
'E

(Ann rate
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil dol.)

213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars

dollars

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
2
2
2
2

032.4

129.6
190.5
271.9

43 .8
97 .2
60 .9
81.4

9. 1
20. 5
11. 9
15. 7

1,402.
1,432.
1, 4 4 6 .
1,465.

3
8
7
8

10 .8
30 .5
13 .9
19 .1

3.2
3.0
3.9
5.4

6,325
6,446
6,489
6,556

1,384.6
1,416.8
1,435.2
1 ,455.3

2 340.6
2 374.6
2, 444.1
2, 496.3

68.7
34 .0
69 .5
52 .2

12. 7
5. 9
12. 2
8. 8

1,479.
1, 4 7 3 .
1,488.
1, 4 9 0 .

9
4
2
6

14 .1
-6.5
14 .8
2 .4

3.9
_ 1.7
L
1.1
().6

6,602
6,556
6,602
6,592

1,464.4
1,455.0
1,480.6
1 ,491.3

2 ,571.7
2 564.8
2 637.3
2 730.6

75 .4
-6 .9
72 .5
93 .3

12. 6
-1. ]
11. 8
14. 9

,501.
,463.
,471.
,485.

9
3
9
6

11 .3
-38 .6
8 .6
13 .7

3.1
-9.9
2.4
3.8

6,624
6,437
6,456
6,499

1,502.8
1,462.0
1 ,476.9
1,492.7

2, 853.0
2, 885.8
r 2 , 956.6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

122 .4
32 .8
r70 8

19. 2
4. 7
rlO. 2

1,516. 4
1,510. 4
r l ,512. 8

30 .8
-6 .0
r2 4

i1.6
-1 .6
rO.6

6,62C
6,58C
r6,573

1,517.8
1 ,499.6
r l 498.8

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

a
Year
and
quarter

ia

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars

225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
b 1. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

231. Total in 1972
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

(Ann rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

233. Durable goods
in 1972 dollars

227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1979

1,398. 0
1,440. 7
1,482. 1
1,531. 0

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

1,580.
1,612.
1,663.
1,710.

2
8
8
1

1
1
1
1

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981

1,765.
1,784.
1,840.
1,897.

1
1
6
0

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

1,947.8
1,985. 6
r2,041. 7

966 .8
975 .5
985 .9
998.0

4 , 361
4 , 389
4 , 422
4 , 464

1 ,278.3

,330.1
,369.9
,416.6

884 .1
900.6
911.2
923 .4

185,0
200,1
202.0
210.2

139.5
148.1
147.0
150.7

005.7
006 .9
015 .7
017 .7

4 , 487
4 , 480
4 , 506
4 , 501

1 ,454.1
1 ,478.0
1 ,529.1
1 ,582.3

925 .5
922 .8
933 .4
941 .6

212.5
207.4
213.3
216.1

149.6
144.2
146.7
146.0

1 021 .0

4 , 503
4 , 435
4 , 468
4 , 488

1,631.0

1 008 .2
1 018 .5
1 , 025 .8

1 ,626.8
1 ,682.2
1 ,751.0

943 4
919 3
930.8
946 8

220.9
194.4
208.8
223.3

145.4
126.2
132.6
139.1

1 , 033 3
1 , 036 8
r l , 043 .6

4, 511
4 , 517
r 4 , 534

1 ,810.1
1 ,829.1
r l ,887.2

960 2
955. 1
r964. 6

238.3
227.3
r237.9

146.8
137.4

i
'

1980

rl41.2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




NOVEMBER 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

H H

Year
and
quarter

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

i

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

R l

239. Services in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

241. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars

243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

504.0
520.4
536.3
558.3

339.8
342.4
347.2
353.5

589.3
609.5
631.6
648.1

404.8
410.1
417.1
419.2

350.7
377.7
380.4
392.6

224.9
232.9
229.3
231.8

325.8
350.7
361.3
374.9

207.2
216.9
217.8
221.3

571.8
586.4
611.5
639.2

351.1
350.6
355.4
361.3

669.9
684.2
704.3
727.0

424.8
428.0
431.3
434.3

408.3
423.2
421.7
410.0

237.7
238.7
232.6
221.5

384.0
390.1
408.3
410.8

222.3
220.4
225.0
222.2

661.1
664.0
674.2
703.5

361.5
356.6
354.9
360.4

749.0
768.4
799.2
824.2

436.5
436.5
443.3
447.3

415.6
390.9
377.1
397.7

218.3
200.5
195.3
200.5

413.1
383.5
393.2
415.1

219.2
199.2
200.2
207.6

726.0
735.3
r750.5

364.5
367.0
r368.5

845.8
866.5
r898.8

448.9
450.7
r454.8

437.1
458.6
r459.1

211.6
219.7
r220.0

432.7
435.3

r434.8

213.1
208.9
r206.1

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

• H
Wii
Year
and
quarter

G O S PRIVATE
RS
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

Q
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES O GOODS AND SERVICES
F
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

24.9
27.0
19.1
17.7

17.7
16.0
11.5
10.6

415.7
425.1
438.3
451.3

274.6
276.3
280.0
280.1

149.5
149.1
154.1
160.7

99.4
98.0
100.8
101.0

266.2
276.0
284.2
290.6

175.3
178.3
179.2
179.2

24.3
33.1
13.3
-0.8

15.4
18.4
7.6
-0.7

458.2
465.1
475.4
496.4

280.6
280.3
281.1
285.3

164.8
163.6
165.1
178.1

102.9
100.8
99.9
103.1

293.4
301.6
310.4
318.3

177.7
179.4
181.2
182.2

2.5
7.4
-16.0
-17.4

-0.9
1.3
-5.0
-7.2

516.8
530.0
533.5
558.6

290.1
291.9
288.2
289.8

190.0
198.7
194.9
212.0

107.6
110.7
106.9
107.4

326.8
331.3
338.6
346.6

182.5
181.2
181.3
182.4

4.5
23.3
r24.3

-1.4
10.8
H4.0

576.5
577.4
r588.3

293,6
289.5
r288.4

221.6
219.5
r226.0

111.2
108.7
r!09.7

354.9
357.9
r362.3

182.5
180.7

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

H78.7

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q [
Year
and
quarter

255. Constant
(1972) dollars

256. Constant
(1972) dollars

252. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars

• •
lttl

FOREIGN TRADE

220. National income in current
dollars

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1972) dollars

253. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter . ; . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-12.3
-3.3
1.9
11.4

18.7
23.0
26.1
30.5

195.9
214.8
225.3
243.5

118.3
125,4
129.8
136.6

208.2
218.1
223.3
232.0

99.5
102.4
103.7
106.2

1,644.6
1,720.7
1,771.7
1,844.6

1,238.1
1,282.3
1,316.5
1,361.7

19.9
8.2
17.9
7.6

36.0
31.6
41.1
42.2

259.1
266.8
293.1
306.3

141.1
140.5
151.3
154.8

239.2
258.6
275.2
298.7

105,1
108.8
110.2
112.6

1,903.6
1,932.0
1,986.2
2,031,3

1,409.9
1,439.0
1,476.7
1,518.1

8.2
17.1
44.5
23.3

50.1
51.7
57.6
48.5

337.3
333.3
342.4
346.1

165.9
160.5
160.5
157.4

329.1
316.2
297.9
322.7

115.8
108.9
102.8
108.9

2,088.5
2,070.0 2,122.4
2,204.8

1,558.0
1,569.0
1,597.4
1,661.8

29.2
20.8
r22.0

50.9
46.2
r39.8

367.4
368.2
r364.1

162.5
161.5
r!58.2

338.2
347.5
r342.1

111.6
115.4
118.4

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

e
Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

I

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1,722.4
1,752.0
rl,789.9

Q j SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment

2,291.1
2,320.9
p2,371.9

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

290. Gross saving
(private and government)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

110.3
115.5
118.2
124.6

25.3
25.4
28.7
30.0

163.6
185.2
190.5
202.7

107.3
112.3
117.8
125.7

326.9
354.0
359.4
380.4

260.1
275.5
284.9
295.8

84.6
73.6
73.4
73.8

127.8
129.4
132.9
136.3

30.7
30.1
30.3
31.0

201.9
196.6
199.5
189.4

133.4
136.9
146.8
156.5

407.4
416.2
422.3
402.0

304.4
310.3
320.5
315.7

83.8
90.9
89.3
80.7

133.7
124,9
129.7
134.0

31.2
31.5
32.0
32.4

200.2
169.3
177.9
183.3

165.4
175.3
185.3
193.3

404.5
394.5
402.0
406.7

326.7
325.8
334.6
339.3

86.4
110.0
111.4
97.6

132.1
134.1
rl37.2

32.7
33.3
33.9

203.0
190.3
pl91.2

200.8
211.0
r219.6

442.6
465.3
p462.3

362.2
368.7
P375.5

88.9
106.6
r!03.3

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.




82

NOVEMBER 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

^ M

^m

SAVING-Continued

298. Government
surplus or deficit,

quarter

293. Personal
saving rate

total

Year
and

(percent of disposable personal
income)

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Percent of gross national product
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

235. Personal consumption expenditures, total

(Percent)

249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories
(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)

1978

....

-17.7
4.9
1.1
10.8

6.0
5.1
5.0
4.8

62.9
62.5
62.5
62.4

11.0
11.2
11.3
11.4

5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1

1.2
1.3
0.9
0.8

-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.5

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

18.1
13.9
11.3
4.4

5.3
5.6
5.4
4.7

62.1
62.2
62.6
63.4

11.4
11.5
11.8
11.6

5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8

1.0
1.4
0.5
0.0

0.9
0.3
0.7
0.3

-9.6
-42.5
-45.6
-30.8

4.9
6.2
6.1
5.1

63.4
63.4
63.8
64.1

11.6
11.3
11.1
11.1

4.5
3.6
3.8
4.1

0.1
0.3
-0.6
-0.6

0.3
0.7
1.7
0.9

-9.7
-11.2
p-17.6

4.6
5.4
r5.1

63.4
63.4
r63.8

11.1
11.2
rll.3

4.1
3.8
3.4

0.2
0.8
r0.8

1.0
0.7
rO.7

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1979

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

g j
Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued

Percent of GNP—Continued

Percent of national income

(Percent)

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services

64. Compensation of
employees

(Percent)

265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdjl

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj'
(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj'
(Percent)

289. Net interest

(Percent)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

7,4
7.0
7.0
7.1

13.1
13.0
13.0
12.8

75.3
74.5
74.3
73.8

6.7
6.7
6.7
6.8

1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6

9.9
10.8
10.8
11.0

6.5
6.5
6.6
6.8

7.0
6.9
6.8
7.1

12.5
12.7
12.7
12.8

74.1
74.5
74.3
74.7

6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7

1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5

10.6
10.2
10.0
9.3

7.0
7.1
7.4
7.7

7.4
7.7
7.4
7.8

12.7
12.9
12.8
12.7

74.6
75.8
75.3
75.4

6.4
6.0
6.1
6.1

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

9.6
8.2
8.4
8.3

7.9
8.5
8.7
8.8

7.8
7.6
r7.6

12.4
12.4
12.3

75.2
75.5
p75.5

5.8
5.8
p5.8

1.4
1.4
pi.4

8.9
8.2
p8.1

8.8
9.1
P9.3

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Q j
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1972 = 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index

(1972 = 100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer prices, all items

Consumer prices, food

320. Index ©

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans:

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1967 = 100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans!

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979

9.7

158*2

April
May
June

161*2

July
August
September

164*2

October
November
December

167*5

204.7
207.1
209.1

0.8
1.0
0.9

10.6
11.4
12.2

225.2
228.2
230.1

1.3
1.3
0.8

12.0
12.0
10.6

9.7

211.5
214.1
216.6

1.0
1.0
1.0

12.9
13.0
13.6

231.5
233.2
233.9

0.6
0.7
0.3

9.0
6.3
7.0

9.5

218.9
221.1
223.4

1.2
1.1
1.2

13.9
14.0
14.4

235.1
235.3
238.0

0.5
0.1
1.1

7.6
7.7
9.7

10.0

225.4
227.,5
229.9

1.1
1.1
1.2

14.9
15.4
15.8

240.1
242.0
245.0

0.9

0.8
1.2

8.9
8.3
7.7

10.1

233.2
236.4
239.8

1.4
1.3
1.3

15.3
14.8
14.3

245.3
244.9
247.0

0.1
-0.2
0.9

6.9
6.1
4.5

9.8

242.5
244.9
247.6

0.9
0.9
1.0

11.4
10.3
9.6

248.3
249.3
250.5

0.5
0.4
0.5

6.3
10.6
12.5

9.6

247.8
249.4
251.7

0.1
0.8
1.0

10.0
10.5
10.5

252.9
257.6
262.0

1.0
1.9
1.7

13.4
15.2
16.3

9.3

253.9
256.2
258.4

1.0
1.1
1.0

11.9
12.3
11.4

264.4
267.6
270.2

0.9
1.2
1.0

13.8
10.3
7.5

10.5

260.5
263.2
265.1

0.7
1.0
0.6

10.0
9.1
8.5

269.8
270.6
271.6

-0.1
0.3
0.4

5.5
2.6
1.0

8.2

266.8
269.0
271.3

0.4
0.7
0.7

9.5
9.2
10.4

271.6
271.0
271.5

0.0
-0.2
0.2

3.0
4.0
5.2

r9.8

8.4

January
February
March

274.4
276.5
279.3

1.2
0.8
1.2

10.3

273,8
275.9
278.6

0.8
0.8
1.0

5.8

279.9

0.4

279.4

0.3

162.3
7.8
166.1
7.8
169*9
8.1

174*6

1980
January
February
March

171.2

April
May
June

175*3

July
August
September

179*2

9.3
178.2
9.8

October
November
December

182*4
9.2
186*7

10.7

183.8

190*9

:

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

188*1

9.8
195.7
6.4
199*5

"!:!
r9.5
195*4

October
November
December

r205*3

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.

Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.




NOVEMBER 1981

KUI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND

PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

K M

330. Index (u)

(1967 = 100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spansl (u)

(Percent)

Producer prices, crude materials

Producer f )rices, industrial commodities

Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans1 @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index ©

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 ©

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans l @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967 = 100)

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

220.8
224.1
226.7

1.5
1.5
1.2

14.5
15.7
15.3

220.0
222.5
225.4

1.3
1.1
1.3

13.8
15.0
16.1

255.3
261.4
266.5

2.2
2.4
2.0

21.1
20.2
20.7

April
May
June

230.0
232.0
233.5

1.5
0.9
0.6

15.1
13.1
14.0

229.0
231.6
234.0

1.6
1.1
1.0

16.5
16.9
17.4

271.2
271.4
274.6

1.8
0.1
1.2

18.1
8.6
11.3

July
August
September

236.9
238.3
242.0

1.5
0.6
1.6

14.0
13.5
14.4

237.5
240.6
244.2

1.5
1.3
1.5

18.2
17.1
17.0

277.4
272.4
281.1

1.0
-1.8
3.2

9.4
12.0
12.2

October
November
December

245.6
247.2
249.7

1.5
0.7
1.0

15.8
19.2
17.1

249.0
250.6
253.1

2.0
0.6
1.0

20.4
22.1
21.0

283.7
287.2
290.9

0.9
1.2
1.3

8.4
17.4
5.3

January
February
March

254.9
260.2
261.9

2.1
2.1
0.7

14.5
14.2
13.1

260.6
265.9
268.6

3.0
2.0
1.0

18.7
17.7
16.8

288.8
295.1
288.4

-0.7
2.2
-2.3

-0.4
-0.8
-1.8

April
May
June

262.8
264.2
265.6

0.3
0.5
0.5

12.5
10.7
9.9

271.3
271.9
273.5

1.0
0.2
0.6

12.3
9.5
7.7

283.1
286.1
288.3

-1.8
1.1
0.8

10.5
15.8
24.5

July
August
September

270.4
273.8
274.6

1.8
1.3
0.3

11.7
11.6
11.8

276.2
278.2
278.8

1.0
0.7
0.2

8.0
8.6
9.8

303.6
317.5
321.8

5.3
4.6
1.4

33.6
33.6
29.5

October
November
December

277.8
279.1
280.8

1.2
0.5
0.6

10.9
10.3
11.8

282.0
283.4
286.6

1.1
0.5
1.1

11.4
13.0
15.5

327.2
330.7
328.1

1.7
1.1
-0.8

17.3
9.6
4.0

284.8
287.6
290.3

1.4
1.0
0.9

11.5
11.0
rl0.2

291.5
295.7
299.6

1.7
1.4
1.3

15.8
15.6
r!3.3

328.8
332.4
328.1

0.2
1.1
-1.3

3.5
0.4
r4.4

293.4
294.1
r294.8

1.1
0.2
r0.2

8.0
6.1
3.6

303.5
304.7
r305.1

1.3
0.4
rO.l

10.2
7.8
5.1

332.8
331.3
r335.2

1.4
-0.5
rl.2

4.4
0.9
1.3

July
August
September

296.0
296.2
295.5

r0.4
0.1
-0.2

1.8

306.0
307.0
307.2

r0.3
0.3
0.1

3.5

335.9
333.9
330.2

r0.2
-0.6
-1.1

-4.9

October
November
December

296.0

0.2

308.8

0.5

324.6

-1.7

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q |

Producer prices, intermediate materials
Year
and
month

332. Index

(1967 = 100)

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

Producer prices, capital equipment

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans*

(Ann. rate,
percent)

333. Index

(1967 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

(Percent)

Producer prices, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

334. Index

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans!

(Percent) •

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

227.0
228.9
231.6

1.1
0.8
1.2

13.3
13.8
14.7

208.1
210.0
211.4

0.7
0.9
0.7

10.0
9.2
9.2

206.1
208.3
210.3

1.3
1.1
1.0

13.0
12.7
11.3

April
May
June

235.2
238.0
240.4

1.6
1.2
1.0

15.9
16.9
17.9

213.3
214.7
215.9

0.9
0.7
0.6

9.2
7.7
7.9

212.3
213.5
214.7

1.0
0.6
0.6

11.1
11.2
13.5

July
August
September

244.4
247.5
251.5

1.7
1.3
1.6

18.0
17.4
17.5

217.5
217.9
219.6

0.7
0.2
0.8

7.7

8.0
8.4

217.2
219.7
224.0

1.2
1.2
2.0

13.9
16.1
16.7

October
November
December

255.5
257.9
260.6

1.6
0.9
1.0

19.6
20.8
18.7

221.4
223.1
224.8

0.8
0.8
0.8

10.1
11.4
11.7

226.6
230.0
231.9

1.2
1.5
0.8

17.9
18.6
16.8

January
February
March

267.3
272.0
274.0

2.6
1.8
0.7

15.6
14.9
14.1

228.2
230.0
232.1

1.5
0.8
0.9

13.4
12.5
12.3

235.8
239.3
242.1

1.7
1.5
1.2

15.3
13.0
13.1

April
May
June

274.7
276.4
278.4

0.3
0.6
0.7

10.5
8.8
8.3

235.8
236.6
238.2

1.6
0.3
0.7

11.6
12.2
10.4

243.3
244.5
246.6

0.5
0.5
0.9

13.5
12.9
11.0

July
August
September

281.0
283.7
285.2

0.9
1.0
0.5

9.6
10.2
11.1

241.1
243.6
243.9

1.2
1.0
0.1

10.7
11.4
10.9

251.2
254.3
255.1

1.9
1.2
0.3

11.7
12.1
10.9

October
November
December

287.6
290.2
293.5

0.8
0.9
1.1

12.0
10.7
11.8

248.1
249.7
250.8

1.7
0.6
0.4

10.7
10.5
11.9

257.1
258.9
259.7

0.8
0.7
0.3

9.4
8.3
10.5

297.4
298.5
301.6

1.3
0.4
1.0

12.2
11.3
r9.3

253.7
256.1
258.0

1.2
0.9
0.7

10.2
10.3
rl0.9

262.7
264.6
268.1

1.2
0.7
1.3

10.4
9.5
r9.8

304.6
306.1
r306.8

1.0
0.5
0.2

7.2
7.3
5.2

260.4
262.3
r264.1

0.9
0.7
rO.7

. 10.1
9.3
7.7

270.2
270.9
r272.1

0.8
0.3
r0.4

7.4
6.4
4.1

July
August
September

307.9
309.2
309.4

0.4
0.4
0.1

3.1

266.2
267.7
267.8

r0.8
0.6
0.0

7.7

272.2
272.9
273.5

rO.O
0.3
0.2

3.4

October
November
December

309.3

0.0

270.2

0.9

274.7

0.4

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

S e note on page 80.
e
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.




NOVEMBER 1981

INJI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

^ J

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarni economy, adjusted
Year
and
month

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings
340.

Index

(1977 = 100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

1

340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

Current-dollar compensation

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

345.

Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

112.8
113.5
114.1

0.7
0.6
0.5

7.8
7.6
7.4

99.7
99.2
98.8

-0.2
-0.5
-0.4

-2.8
-3.8
-4.7

114.7

10.8

April
May
June

114.9
115.3
116.1

0.7
0.3
0.7

7.4
7.5
8.4

98.5
97.8
97.5

-0.3
-0.7
-0.3

-5.2
-5.0
-4.8

117*6

July
August
September

116.9
117.7
118.8

0.7
0.7
0.9

7.5
8.7
9.2

97.0
96.7
96.4

-0.5
-0.3
-0.3

-5.6
-4.5
-4.4

i2o!o

October
November
December

119.1
120.2
121.3

0.3
0.9
0.9

8.3
8.8
9.2

95.7
95.6
95.3

-0.7
-0.1
-0.3

-5.5
-5.7
-5.5

122*7

January
February
March

121.7
122.8
124.1

0.3
0.9
1.1

9.6
9.4
9.5

94.3
93.9
93.7

-1.0
-0.4
-0.2

-5.0
-4.6
-3.9

125.7

April
May
June

124.7
125.8
127.0

0.5
0.9
1.0

10.0
9.9
8.7

93.3
93.4
93.4

-0.4
0.1
0.0

-1.0
-0.1
-0.9

129.1

July
August
September

127.6
128.7
129.4

0.5
0.9
0.5

9.8
10.4
9.1

93.8
93.9
93.3

0.4
0.1
-0.6

-0.2
-0.3
-1.6

132.6

October
November
December

130.6
132.1
132.6

0.9
1.1
0.4

9.9
9.9
10.2

93.2
93.2
92.7

-0.1
0.0
-0.5

-2.2
-2.5
-1.1

135*. 1

January
February
March

133.8
135.0
135.8

0.9
0.9
0.6

9.5
8.6
8.9

92.8
92.7
92.8

0.1
-0.1
0.1

-0.4
-0.4
0.6

r!38.8

April
May
June

136.7
137.7
138.4

0.7
0.7
0.5

7.9
r8.7
r8.3

93.0
93.1
92.9

0.2
0.1
-0.2

-1.2
rO.O

p7.3

-0.8
rO.5

r-0.8
p-0.2

9*8
10.4
9*8

8.6
9.6

9.3
9*.8

1980

10.0
9*9
11.5
lO.'l

9.1
10*4

9.7
r9*.9

1981

July
August
September

139.0
H40.7
rH1.3

r0.4

92.2
r92.7
r92.0

October
November
December

pl41.6

p0.2

p91.8

0.4
1.2

rll.5

plb'.l
r9.5

rl42*6

r-1.6
p-2.6

p9.7

pl45.3

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q

348. First year
average changes

Real compensation
346. Index

(1977 = 100)

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Negotiated wa£ e and benefit
decisions, all ndustries ©

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
and
month

W G S AND
AE

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans!
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons private
business sector
370. Index

over 1-quarter
spans'

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370c. Change

358. Index of
output per hour
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector

(1977 = 100)

1979
January
February
March

-0.4

100.*3

April
May
June

99^9

July
August
September

98^7

October
November
December

97^6

-V.7

2.8

7.8

-2.6

-i'.o

0.1

6.1

-4*.l

-4.3

-0*.6

99^7
9.0

-4.7

-0.8
99.7

10.5

-1.8

5.3

-1.2
99^4

8.5

6.0

-1.0
99.1

99^5

-6.7

99J

-6!l

98.*9

-6'.6

98.8

1980
January
February
March

96^2

April
May
June

95*.8

July
August
September

96J

October
November
December

95'.4

8.8

-5.6

6.7

-2.6
10.2

-1.5

7.4

-2.2
1.2

-2.8

-6! 8
6'.2

1.6
99^5

-1.8
99.'1

11.4

7.2

1.3
99!4

8.5

6.1

6!6

98^9

o!6

98.2

6!7

9916

-1.1
r2.1

99^6

pl".5

99J

ioo!6

1981
January
February
March

r95.5

April
May
June

r96.0

July
August
September

p95.*5

r9.2

rO.l

r7.8

p-0.6
r2.3

p-2.0

rll.9

p!2.1

r9.7

4.6

ioo!3

rioi'.i

p9.4

r3.5

rl00.4
p-1.0

p99*.9

pl00.9

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
x
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




NOVEMBER 1981

ItO

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

D

1 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND VIAJOR COMPONENTS

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

(Thous.)

442. Employed

(Thous.)

448. Number em-

Number unemployed

Labor force participatior rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

37. Total

446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

447. Fulltime
workers

444. Males
20 years
and over

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

ployed
part-time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

1979
January
February
March

102,014
102,393
102,578

96,056
96,400
96,622

80.0
80.1
79.9

50.1
50.3
50.5

58.8
58.9
58.7

5,958
5,993
5,956

2,201
2,188
2,188

2,205
2,251
2,246

1,552
1,554
1,522

4,573
4,692
4,602

3,234
3,209
3,248

April
May
June

102,213
102,366
102,556

96,295
96,590
96,838

79.8
79.7
79.7

50.2
50.3
50.4

58.4
57.9
57.8

5,918
5,776
5,718

2,165
2,083
2,097

2,178
2,147
2,177

1,575
1,546
1,444

4,621
4,450
4,422

3,279
3,252
3,267

July
August
September

103,015
103,105
103,492

97,277
97,048
97,521

79.9
79.8
79.9

50.7
51.0
50.9

57.6
56.6
58.1

5,738
6,057
5,971

2,177
2,235
2,232

2,122
2,303
2,180

1,439
1,519
1,559

4,484
4,661
4,670

3,243
3,286
3,155

October
November
December

103,566
103,605
104,053

97,434
97,501
97,781

79.7
79.5
79.5

50.9
50.9
51.2

57.7
57.9
58.5

6,132
6,104
6,272

2,333
2,385
2,435

2,240
2,214
2,276

1,559
1,505
1,561

4,785
4,814
4,911

3,289
3,405
3,541

January
February
March

104,208
104,271
104,171

97,708
97,817
97,628

79.5
79.6
79.4

51.3
51.3
51.2

58.0
57.5
57.4

6,500
6,454
6,543

2,629
2,581
2,736

2,314
2,311
2,295

1,557
1,562
1,512

5,130
5,114
5,265

3,549
3,454
3,470

April
May
June

104,427
105,060
104,591

97,225
97,116
96,780

79.5
79.9
79.4

51.4
51.5
51.4

56.5
57.9
56.7

7,202
7,944

7,811

3,192
3,569
3,558

2,501
2,593
2,569

1,509
1,782
1,684

5,825
6,586
6,430

3,803
4,276
3,969

July
August
September

105,020
104,945
104,980

96,999
97,003
97,180

79.4
79.4
79.4

51.5
51.6
51.3

57.1
55.5
56.7

8,021
7,942
7,800

3,630
3,612
3,652

2,655
2,633
2,513

1,736
1,697
1,635

6,631
6,553
6,516

4,086
4,143
4,183

October
November
December

105,167
105,285
105,067

97,206
97,339
97,282

79.3
79.2
79.0

51.4
51.5
51.4

56.8
56.5
56.0

7,961
7,946
7,785

3,532
3,532
3,425

2,732
2,720
2,750

1,697
1,694
1,610

6,559
6,632
6,549

4,220
4,176
4,218

January
February
March

105,543
105,681
106,177

97,696
97,927
98,412

78.8
78.7
79.2

51.8
51.9
52.1

57.0
57.0
56.6

7,847
7,754
7,764

3,352
3,312
3,305

2,750
2,680
2,725

1,744
1,762
1,734

6,460
6,396
6,407

4,474
4,145
4,227

April
May
June

106,722
107,406
106,176

98,976
99,235
98,392

79.4
79.8
78.9

52.3
52.6
52.4

57.7
57.4
53.7

7,746
8,171
7,784

3,262
3,546
3,425

2,721
2,838
2,731

1,763
1,787
1,628

6,293
6,690
6,322

4,044
4,143
3,798

July
August
September

106,464
106,602
106,236

98,962
98,944
98,270

78.9
79.0
78.9

52.5
52.4
51.8

54.2
54.8
55.4

7,502
7,657
7,966

3,147
3,321
3,455

2,797
2,701
2,819

1,559
1,635
1,692

6,101
6,102
6,506

4,225
4,187
4,537

October
November
December

106,736

98,217

78.8

52.3

55.2

8,520

3,773

2,953

1,793

7,029

5,026

1980

1981

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.


NOVEMBER 1981


OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Q |

1
State and local governments

Federal Governmentl
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q j

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

DEFENSE INDICATORS

Advance measures of defense activity

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

525. Defense
Department
military prime
contract
awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

548. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1979
January
February
March

-11*5

477!6

488! 4

2^5

340! 9

31l!4

10,770
10,226
10,935

5,706
4,773
5,763

65,120
48,267
67,128

2,917
4,256
3,191

-8.'l

485 .*9

494.'6

2K9

342.7

320! 8

9,784
10,683
10,615

4,936
4,720
5,117

68,883
68,468
68,976

2,843
3,341
2,986

July
August
September

-15!2

5O6! 6

515.*8

26.*5

355 .*4

328.'9

11,792
11,022
12,278

6,135
5,282
6,364

70,252
81,542
71,886

3,793
3,437
4,023

October
November
December

-24^5

514!6

53EL6

2^9

365!6

336.7

12,081
11,505
11,997

4,318
5,670
5,489

64,325
68,634
68,525

2,959
3,422
3,326

January
February
March

-36.3

528'.4

564 'j

26.6

372J

345'.4

12,578
12,399
13,806

5,515
7,152
5,781

70,088
68,497
72,961

3,773
4,224
5,152

April
May
June

-66.5

52CL9

587! 3

23!9

373L9

356!6

13,722
13,718
12,809

7,572
7,483
7,184

73,766
74,848
75,204

4,474
4,044
4,546

July
August
September

-74^2

540 .'8

615!6

28.6

386! 8

358'.2

12,677
13,728
13,552

6,768
7,633
7,410

76,366
76,506
79,260

6,815
4,915
5,669

October
November
December

-67.9

573.2

641.1

37 J

403.4

366.*3

13,014
12,876
15,825

4,572
6,794
9,663

77,930
76,530
79,312

3,986
3,357
4,991

January
February
March

-46! 6

617.4

664! 6

36.9

4li.*7

374.8

14,808
15,741
15,560

7,430
7,598
7,866

80,829
85,032
83,966

4,530
6,251
4,848

April
May
June

-47.*2

621*0

668! 2

36* 1

413.6

377.5

15,210
15,699
15,156

8,916
7,975
6,269

83,672
85,589
86,301

3,976
5,383
4,956

p-54.9

P637.9

r692.8

p37.2

p419.4

r382.1

16,836
17,374
pi 6,584

9,771
10,142
(NA)

88,424
90,913
93,228

5,482
5,759
r6,554

(NA)

p3,799

April
May
June

1980

1981

July
August
September
October
November
December

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.




90

NOVEMBER 1 9 8 1

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Q j

DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued

National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

Defense Department
personnel

557. Output of
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

580. Defense
Department
net outlays

(1967-100)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

January
February
March

92.3
92.4
93.0

6,658
6,745
6,832

47,686
49,264
49,470

9,645
9,452
9,525

2,666
2,677
2,985

1,242
1,262
1,278

2,040
2,030
2,026

972
971
968

1O6!6

4^5

April
May
June

92.1
92.4
92.2

6,834
7,061
7,234

49,579
50,189
50,293

9,299
9,781
9,425

2,734
2,732
2,882

1,282
1,287
1,296

2,022
2,018
2,024

968
972
979

108! 1

4.'<5

July
August
September

92.9
91.9
93.8

7,301
7,455
7,802

51,344
51,864
53,059

10,499
10,103
9,982

2,742
2,917
2,828

1,305
1,306
1,317

2,027
2,024
2,027

982
974
960

11216

4l6

October
November
December

95.4
96.4
96.7

8,066
8,426
8,606

53,057
53,390
53,532

9,982
10,206
11,182

2,961
3,089
3,184

1,328
1,340
1,346

2,030
2,029
2,020

964
967
967

118.*7

4^8

January
February
March

97.2
97.6
97.4

8,762
8,819
9,246

54,323
55,318
57,151

11,341
10,632
11,235

2,983
3,229
3,319

1,348
1,353
1,363

2,029
2,032
2,033

964
965
966

125.6

4^9

April
May
June

97.6
97.4
97.7

9,415
9,576
9,749

58,345
59,024
60,207

11,356
11,061
11,480

3,280
3,366
3,363

1,359
1,361
1,354

2,028
2,031
2,034

969
975
988

12817

5.0

July
August
September

97.9
97.7
98.1

10,034
10,337
10,447

63,573
65,097
67,113

11,303
11,135
11,648

3,450
3,391
3,653

1,357
1,364
1,369

2,044
2,049
2,051

990
973
971

131 A

516

October
November
December

99.2
100.3
101.0

10,698
10,815
11,021

67,445
67,046
68,355

12,371
11,209
13,055

3,653
3,757
3,683

1,380
1,382
1,386

2,053
2,056
2,051

971
972
973

141.6

5*.2

January
February
March

100.9
100.5
100.7

11,418
11,628
11,984

69,321
71,711
72,398

12,769
12,959
12,631

3,564
3,861
4,161

1,384
1,379
1,383

2,056
2,061
2,062

973
972
974

145'.2

5."l

April
May
June

101.5
102.0
101.7

12,165
12,273
12,700

72,410
73,852
74,696

12,609
13,541
13,277

3,964
3,941
4,112

1,383
1,382
1,381

2,060
2,064
2,070

980
990
1,008

148.2

5.1

July
August . .
September

102.6
H02.7
r!03.6

12,681
12,689
p!3,019

75,952
77,294
r79,632

14,135
13,723
rl3,886

4,229
4,419
r4,214

1,382
1,385
p i , 385

2,082
2,084
2,083

1,023
1,017
984

r!53.8

5'.2

October

p!03.8

(NA)

p79,079

p!4,193

p4,352

(NA)

p2,090

p998

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment in defense products
industries

(Mil.dol.)

(Thous.)

577. Military,
active duty ®

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment (u)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP

(Percent)

1979

1980

1981

Mn\/pm hpr
l l u Veil 1 UCl

December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q H

Year
and
month

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil. dol.)

604. Exports of agricultural products

(Mil. dol.)

MERCHANDISE TRADE

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

(Mil. dol.)

612. General imports,
total

614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products

616. Imports of
automobiles and parts

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1979
January
February
March

13,616
14,298

2,531
2,444
2,609

2,682
2,832
2,917

16,528
14,607
15,358

3,580
3,634
3,667

1,963
1,706
1,589

April
May
June

13,979
14,084
14,819

2,540
2,597
2,828

2,706
2,859
3,034

15,841
16,436
16,829

3,832
4,000
4,199

1,956
1,851
1,730

July
August
September

15,692
15,717
15,825

2,954
3,019
3,032

3,022
3,241
3,153

16,804
18,277
18,409

4,692
4,949
5,662

1,815
2,113
1,849

October
November
December

16,682
16,929
16,742

3,309
3,459
3,311

3,251
3,172
3,240

19,027
18,546
19,612

6,050
5,351
6,502

1,805
1,984
1,871

January
February
March

17,419
16,984
18,265

3,442
3,484
3,325

3,297
3,454
3,423

21,142
21,779
20,947

5,614
7,741
6,991

1,899
2,035
1,960

April
May
June

18,567
17,647
18,440

3,329
3,326
3,085

3,571
3,620
3,943

19,766
20,587
20,353

5,185
7,191
6,611

1,710
1,999
1,843

July
August
September

18,267
19,086
18,828

3,286
3,557
3,596

3,985
4,230
4,027

19,139
19,713
19,940

5,153
6,018
4,982

2,103
2,139
2,270

October
November
December

19,214
18,715
19,251

3,485
3,464
3,838

4,117
3,968
3,819

20,347
19,860
21,436

5,876
6,051
6,254

2,189
2,314
1,897

January
February
March

18,825
19,764
21,434

4,295
3,977
4,201

4,058
4,155
4,352

23,194
21,922
20,949

7,359
8,018
5,992

2,264
1,742
2,125

April
May
June

19,818
18,869
19,870

3,604
3,708
3,256

4,311
4,160
4,388

22,289
21,310
21,975

6,919
6,329
6,521

2,042
2,299
2,257

July
August
September

19,264
19,050
19,655

3,089
3,202
3,563

4,567
6,207
4,559

19,807
23,528
21,229

5,400
6,335
5,709 *

2,108
2,635
1,943

October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

13,265

1980

1981

(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.




92

NOVEMBER 1 9 8 1

licit

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL

TRANSACTIONS—Continued

^ J

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted l

Goods and services
Year
and
month

668. Exports

667. Balance

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

669. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil.dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

Income on investments
620. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

651. U.S. investments abroad

(Mil.dol.)

652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States

(Mil.dol.)

1979
January
February
March

2,539

65,424

62,885

-4,730

42,036

46,766

14,iii

7,352

702

68,890

68,188

-7,283

43,834

51,117

15,582

7,949

July
August
September

2,453

74,718

72,265

-6,974

47,236

54,210

18,055

8,734

October
November
December

1,31*2

79,894

78,582

-8,359

51,367

59,726

18,952

9,203

-217

85,764

85,981

-10,126

54,898

65,024

20,465

10,629

787

83,61*7

82,830

-6,744

55,667

62,411

16,860

10,342

July
August
September

6,478

86,655

80,177

-2,902

56,252

59,154

18,850

10,697

October
November
December

3,734

88,636

84,902

-5,570

57,149

62,719

19,764

11,507

4,790

94,431

89,641

-4,677

61,098

65,775

21,566

12,513

p2,6O3

p94,845

p92,242

-6,914

60,477

67,391

p22,235

pl3,587

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p-7,225

p58,012

p65,237

(NA)

(NA)

April
May
June

1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of
Defense purchases (imports).




itrn

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q |
47. United States,
index of industrial production
Year
and
month

(1967 = 100)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

721. OECD l
European countries, index of
industrial
production

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)
Revised 2

1979
January
February
March

152.0
152.5
153.5

154
155
156

210.7
213.4
213.1

154
154
157

158
160
163

122
132
133

152.8
160.0
156.0

162.3
162.6
163.1

April
May
June

151.1
152.7
153.0

156
159
158

214.4
218.2
218.5

157
161
163

160
164
164

132
134
136

156.7
151.9
145.1

161.9
165.5
163.6

July
August
September

153.0
152.1
152.7

162
159
159

221.2
221.8
220.5

164
163
161

170
170
167

134
130
129

150.4
150.1
159.4

165.5
165.6
166.6

October
November
December

152.7
152.3
152.5

161
162
162

225.0
228.1
228.4

163
164
164

164
164
166

130
132
131

166.8
167.3
164.7

165.7
165.1
163.0

January
February
March

153.0
152.8
152.1

163
163
163

230.7
241.0
235.0

164
167
164

166
167
166

130
128
125

168.9
176.1
174.6

162.9
161.9
164.8

April
May
June

148.2
143.8
141.4

163
158
159

238.2
235.7
234.4

164
161
160

167
160
160

124
124
124

176.1
162.3
167.4

160.8
158.4
158.1

July
August
September

140.3
142.2
144.4

161
154
155

234.5
225.3
233.4

161
157
157

166
166
157

123
120
117

165.2
141.5
160.8

157.5
158.8
160.9

October
November
December

146.6
149.2
150.4

r!58
156
155

235.7
232.6
236.4

160
157
154

160
153
163

118
117
116

163.2
169.5
159.4

162.0
162.7
163.1

January
February
March

151.4
151.8
152.1

152
rl58
156

238.3
239.8
237.9

rl56
rl64
r!60

150
149
156

116
117
rl!6

H58.2
H70.1
rl68.9

161.7
164.1
167.1

April
May
June

151.9
152.7
152.9

156
155
154

239.0
234.5
240.3

161
r!63
156

152
rl49
153

116
115
117

167.5
157.6
H58.0

166.7
169.1
170.0

July
August
September

H53.9
r!53.6
rl51.8

p!56
(NA)

243.1
p236.0
(NA)

160
pl61
(NA)

156
pi 56
(NA)

117
pl!7
(NA)

162.8
p!37.2
(NA)

166.2
pl64.1
(NA)

October
November
December

pl49.5

.

1980

1981

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This I s s u e , " page i i i .




94

NHWCMDCD

1OO1

itrifc

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q j
United States
Year
and
month

320. Index @

(1967 = 100)

West Germany

Japan

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index @

(1967 = 100)

CONSUMER PRICES

738c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

United kingdom

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans *

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

204.7
207.1
209.1

10.6 •
11.4

April
May
June

12.2

253.9
253.1
255.1

1.8
3.1
4.6

162.9
163.6
164.4

4.4
4.3
4.7

245.5
247.1
249.4

10.4
10.9

332.9
335.6
338.3

11.4
11.4
13.2

211.5
214.1
216.6

12.9
13.0
13.6

258.6
261.3
261.5

7.3
7.0
5.3

165.3
165.7
166.6

6.0
5.8
5.8

251.8
254.5
256.6

11.9
12.6
11.7

344.1
346.8
352.8

21.5
21.4
22.1

218.9
221.1
223.4

13.9
14.0
14.4

263.8
261.1
264.4

6.7
6.9
6.9

167.7
167.8
168.3

6.0
6.4
6.1

260.0
262.7
264.9

12.7
12.4
12.8

368.0
370.9
374.6

23.2
23.7
21.5

225.4
227.5
229.9

14.9
15.4
15.8

267.7
266.7
268.3

r6.4
8.9
rl0.4

168.7
169.3
170.1

4.0
5.4
5.6

268.1
269.8
272.0

14.2
14.7
15.6

378.5
381.8
384.6

15.4

January
February
March

233.2
236.4
239.8

15.3
14.8
14.3

r271.3
273.3
r275.0

9.9
r9.4
rl0.3

171.0
172.8
173.8

5.6
5.6
5.7

277.2
280.2
283.4

15.0
15.0
14.1

394.1
399.7
405.1

20.4
20.5
20.5

April
May
June

242.5
244.9
247.6

11.4
10.3
9.6

r280.1
r282.6
r284.0

r8.9
r7.8
r7.8

174.9
175.6
176.5

6.9
5.5
4.7

286.7
289.3
291.1

12.9
12.3
11.6

419.0
422.8
426.8

18.5
15.8
14.1

July
August
September

247.8
249.4
251.7

10.0
10.5
10.5

r284.0
r283.2
r288.3

r5.9
r7.6
r4.7

176.8
177.0
177.0

4.6
5.0
5.2

295.5
298.4
301.0

11.8
12.2
13.2

430.4
431.3
434.1

10.6
10.4
9.9

October
November
December

253.9
256.2
258.4

11.9
12.3
11.4

r288.8
r289.4
r288.3

r6.1
r5.4
r4.8

177.3
178.3
179.4

4.9
5.4
6.3

304.3
306.4
309.1

12.7
12.7
13.0

436.8
440.3
442.7

8.2
9.7
11.1

January
February
March

260.5
263.2
265.1

10.0
9.1
8.5

r291.1
r290.8
r292.2

r4.4
r2.4
r4.3

180.9
182.3
183.5

6.6
6.3
6.0

312.7
315.6
318.8

13.6
13.2
13.0

445.5
449.5
456.2

13.4
13.0
12.7

April
May
June

266.8
269.0
271.3

9.5
9.2
10.4

r294.5
r297.0
r297.3

r2.2
r2.3
3.0

184.7
185.4
186.3

6.5
6.7
6.9

323.1
326.0
329.2

13.8
14.0
15.1

469.4
472.4
475.2

13.0
12.8
11.2

July
August
September

274.4
276.5
279.3

10.3

r296.4
r294.7
299.5

(NA)

187.1
187.7
188.6

6.9

334.9
339.0
342.9

(NA)

477.3
480.8
483.5

9.8

October
November
December

279.9

July
August
September

\

October
November
December

9.8

16.8
17.4

1980

1981

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.




189.2

(NA)

487.9

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

I

9

Italy
Year
and
month

CONSUMER PRICES-Continued

Canada

737. Index © 737c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

733. Index @ 733c. Change

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Q

over 6-month
spans l

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

STOCK PRICES

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices @

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ®

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

1979
January
February
March

305.1
309.7
313.8

14.5
15.6
15.6

211.2
213.2
215.7

10.9
10.1
9.9

108.5
106.9
108.9

416.1
409.9
405.7

135,0
131.9
131.2

160.9
149,9
155.4

211.1
212.2
240.8

52.4
54.8
57.9

138.4
141.1
150.7

April
May
June

317.8
321.3
323.9

14.9
15.5
17.8

217.2
219.3
220.3

9.5
8.5
8.5

111.0
108.5
110.7

402.9
411.1
402.3

130.6
127.8
121.7

164.5
162.0
171.7

255.7
255.0
241.0

54.1
56.8
58.0

149.5
154.8
168.9

July
August
September

326.7
330.6
339.2

19.2

222.1
222.9
224.9

7.9

19.4
21.7

8.8
9.5

111.7
116.8
118.1

400.6
408.0
412.5

122.0
124.3
125.7

173.7
188.6
207.4

232.8
233.9
236.3

58.8
61.7
63.0

159.4
178.6
191.7

October
November
December

345.5
350.3
356.6

25.8
26,1
23.1

226.5
228.7
230,1

10.0
10.4
9.9

113.6
112.8
117.2

408.2
403.4
410.8

123.5
118.3
118.8

187.5
189.1
186.8

238.9
215.6
217.1

62.6
58.6
55.4

175.2
189.3
199.5

January
February
March

367.9
374.3
378.2

23.0
22.6
20.4

231.3
233.3
235.8

10.3
9.9
10.6

120.6
125.5
113.9

420.1
425.5
413.0

117.2
123.3
118.1

203.8
207.4
185.4

224.3
239.4
231.6

59.8
61.1
61.1

224.7
256.3
203.2

April
May
June

384.3
388.2
391.7

18.4
18.1
19.6

237.2
240.0
242.7

10.0
11.0
11.5

112.0
117.1
124.6

417.6
422.9
423.8

116.5
118.8
120.6

189.0
201.1
201.4

228.1
230.3
240.7

61.0
61.5
64.8

212.8
216.4
227.5

July
August
September

398.7
403.5
411.6

19.1
21.6
22.9

244.5
246.8
249.0

11.7
12.7
12.0

130.4
134.3
137.6

424.9
429.1
437.6

121.2
121.7
120.0

198.9
199.9
203.0

255.9
256.7
262.6

66.0
74.4
82.7

240.0
232.3
233.5

418.5
427.3

21.2
r21.7
r20.7

251.2
254.3
255.8

14.1
13.3
13.2

141,7
147.6
145.2

447.5
447.8
443.5

120.6
117,2
116.3

218.0
215.2
206.6

267.4
277,5
267.6

93.5
99.2
96.0

223.3
235.2
219.9

1980

October
November
December

.

HOC . D

1981
January
February
March

440.7
r449.1
r455.4

20.8
r20.1
r!9.3

259.1
261.7
265.2

13.6
12.0
13.7

144.6
139.7
144.9

457.9
458.2
467.3

115.3
114.0
116.3

191.1
201.1
209.4

259.0
269.0
273.2

110.0
122.1
125.9

223.7
. 218.6
233.9

April
May
June

461.3
r468.7
r473.9

H8.4
rl7.0
r!6.1

267.2
269.6
273.8

11.9
12.3
11.9

146.2
143.3
143.9

494.6
502.8
515.2

122.7
122.1
126.1

197.7
162.5
152.3

293.2
295.6
289.0

132.4
135.9
123.5

232.3
245.7
242.9

July
August
September

r477.7
r481.0
r487.7

17.7

276.2
278.2
280.2

12.0

140.5
141.0
128.7

534.4
540.7
511.3

127.5
122.5
122.5

168.9
177.4
rpl87.3

284.8
298.6
p278.8

99.1
112.0
99.1

p242.6
p233.8
p208.0

October
November
December

497.5

130.3
p!33.7

493.8
p504.0

rpl20.0
pl!9.9

rp!77.6
p!69.5

rp261.7
p274.9

91.2
p90.9

rp!96.8
pl97.3

283.0

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

'•Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.




C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Feb.

Jan.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

340 . AVERAGE HOURLY E A R N I N G S , PRODUCTION WORKERS IN PRIVATE
(INDEX: 1977=100)

Sept.

Oct.

Nv
o

Dec.

II Q

IQ

III Q

IV Q

A V E R A G E FOR

PERIOD

44.6

45.0

45.3

23.4
24.5
25.4
27.3
28 7
30 3
31.4
32.4
34 0
35.7
37.2
38. 5
39. 8
41.1
42. 4
43.6
44.8

46.1
48.1
50.4
53.5
57.0
60.7
65.2
69.3
73.5
79.1
85.8
91.9
99.0
107.0
115.4
125.8

46.5
48.6
51.1
54.3
57.9
61.9
66.2
70.2
74.6
81.0
87.4
93.8
100.7
109.1
117.8
128.6

47.0
49.2
51.8
55.2
58.9
62.8
67.0
71.3
75.9
82.8
89.0
95.5
102.o
111.3
120.2
131.8

46.3
48.3
50.7
53.9
57.4
61.2
65.6
69.8
74.1
80.0
86.7
92.9
100.0
108.1
116.8
127.3

1949.
. .
1950
1951.
. .
1952

1955...

1958...

1961...

1964...

44.2

44.3

44.4

44.5

44.6

44.7

44.8

45.0

45.1

45.2

1965...
1966...
1967.
. .
1968.
. .
1969...
1970.
..
1971.
..
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975.. .
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

45.6
47.4
49.6
52.4
55.7
59.4
63.7
68.2
72.1
76.6
83.7
89.9
96.8
104.3
112.8
121.7

45.7
47.5
49.8
52.6
56.0
59.8
64.2
68.4
72.4
77.1
84.3
90.4
97.3
104.7
113.5
122.8

45.8
47.7
49.9
52.9
56.4
60.2
64.4
68.7
72.7
77.6
85.1
90.8
97.8
105.4
114.1
124.1

45.9
48.0
50.2
53.2
56.6
60.3
64.8
69.1
73.2
78.2
85.2
91.4
98.4
106.4
114.9
124.7

46.2
48.1
50.4
53.4
57.0
60.7
65.3
69.3
73.4
79.0
85.8
92.1
99.1
107.0
115.3
125.8

46.3
48.3
50.6
53.8
57.4
61.1
65.6
69.4
73.9
80.0
86.5
92.3
99.5
107.7
116.1
127.0

46.4
48.4
50.9
54.0
57.6
61.5
65.9
69.8
74.3
80.2
86.8
93.0
100.2
108.5
116.9
127.6

46.5
48.5
51.0
54.3
57.9
62.0
66.2
70.2
74.5
81.0
87.6
93.9
100.6
109.0
117.7

4b.7
48.8
51.3
54.6
58.2
62.3
66.5
70.5
75.1
81.8
87.8
94.4
101.2
109.8
118.8
129.4

46.9
49.0
51.5
54. 9
58. b
6.2.5
66.6
71.0
75.4
82.3
88.4
94.9
102.1
110.6
119.1
130.6

340-C

128.7

Annual

NONFARM ECONOMY

45. 3
47.
49.
51.
55.
59.
62.
66.
71.
75.
82.
89.
95.
102.
111.
120.
132.

U
2
8
2
0
8
8
2
9
7
2
5
6
2
2
1

5

45.

47. ^

49.4
52.
55.
59.
63.
67.
71.
76.
83.
89.
96.

103.
112.
121.
132.

0
5
1
1
6
8
3
4
4
1
2
0
3
6

44. 3
45.
47.
49.
52.
56.
59.
64.
68.
72.
77.
84.
90.
97.

7
5
8
6
0
8
1
4
4
1

4
4
3

104. 8
113. 5
122. 9

. CHANGE IN INDE* OF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
AVERAGE FOR

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)

PERIOD

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951. .
1952...
1954.
..
1955.. .
1956
1957.
.

1961.

. .

1963
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972.
. .
1973.
..
1974.
. .
1975.
. .
1976.. .
1977.. .
1978.
. .
1979.
. .
1980.
. .
1981...

0.2
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.5
1.0
0.9
0.4
0.4
0. 4
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.7
0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.2

0. 2

0.2
0.4
0.2
0.6
0.7
0.7

0.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
0 . ti
0.1
0.7
0. 6
0.9
0.7
0.5

0.7
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.7
U. b
0.3
0.9

0.2
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.7
1.3
0. 8
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.7
1.0

0.2
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.2
0. 3
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.5

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.3
1.0
0. 9
1.0
0. 4
0.5
0.7
0.9

0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.8
1.0
0. 2
0. 5
0. 6
U.7
0.9
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.7
0.4
0. 6
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.9

0. 2
0. 4
0. 6
0. 5
0. 7
0. 5
0. 3
0. 3
0. 7
0. 5
0. 9
0. 6
0. 5
0. 5
0. 9
1. 1

0. 2
0. 4
0. 4
0. 5
0. 2
0. 5
1. 2
0. 8
0. 5
0. 8
0. 2
0. b
0. b
0. 7
0. 9
4
0.

0.2

340-C

a.3
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.5
1.1

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2
4
3
6
5
6
7
5
4
6
7
5
6
7
6
8

0.3

0.3

0. 4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.8

0. 4

0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.7
0. 6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.9

0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0. 5
0.8
0. 6
0.6
0.8
0.6

0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8

0.3
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8

. CHANGE IN INDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MONTH 3 PANS
AVERAGE FOR

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

PERIOD

1949...

1952
1953
1954
1955...
1956
1957
1958...
1960
1961...
1962
1963...
1964.
. .

1966.
. .
1967...
1968.. .
1970.
. .
1971...
1972.
. .
1973...
1974.
. .
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

2.8

3.3

3. 4

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.3

3 2

3 2

3.2

4.9
6.4

4.7

5.1
6.9

5.4
6.3

5.0
6.3

5.4
6.6

4.5
5.3
6.6

4.6
5.7
b.7

4.6
5.4
6.7

5.1
5.8
6.3

5
6
b

4 6
6 5
6 4

5.8
8.0
7.7
6.2
8.6
7.6
6.6
7.5
8.7
7.6
9.4

6.7
7.9
5.6
6.0
9.9
7.6
6.7
7.3
8.9
7.4
9.5

7.0
6.8
4.9
6.2
9.6
7.7
7.0
7.2
8.2
7.4
10.0

7.5
6.6
5.3
6.0
10.2
7.9
7.9
7.0
8.3
7.5
9.9

7.2
6.5
5.2
6.8
11.0
6.5
7.9
7.3
8.5
8.4
8.7

7.2
5.7
5.b
6.0
10.7
7.6
7.8
7.7
8.1
7.5
9.8

7. 2
4.5
5.7
6.8
9.5
8.0
7.7
7.3
8.0
8.7
10.4

6.7
6.2
6.8
6.8
8.7
6.6
8.3
7.5
8.2
9.2
9.1

7.6
7.2
6.5
6.4
8.8
7.1
8.3
8.4
8.1
8.3
9.9

7
6 5
6
7 2
8 4
6 7
7 7
8 3
8
8 8
9 9

7
6
6
6
8

4.4
5.3
6.4

4.6
5.5
6.7

5.0
6.2

7.2
6.6
5.1
6.3
10.3
7.4
7.6
7.2
8.3
7.8
9.5

7.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
9.6
7.4
7.9
7.5
8.1
8.5
9.8

7.3
6.8
6.4
6.8
8.5
6.9
7.6
8.4
8.2
8.8

6 6

5.9
7.6
7.6
6.3
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.5
8.5
7.8
9.6

3.2

4 9
4 9

6.6

3.5

4.9

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.
interindustry employment shifts.




7
7
8
8
9
10

0
8
4
7
3
0
3
4
0
2
2

6
7
7
6
8

1
8
0
2
7
7 .5
6 8
7 .4
8 .7
7 .6
9 .5

These series are adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and

6.4

10.0

4.7
5.5
6.5
6.9
6.7
6.1
6.4
9.3
7.3
7.5
7.6
8.3
8.2
9.7
(NOVEMBER 1981)

97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.
341.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct. 1 Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, PRODUCTION WORKERS IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
(INDEX
1977=100)

III Q

IV Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1964...

86.5

86.7

87.0

87.0

87.1

87.2

87.5

87.9

88.1

87.9

88.0

88.2

86.7

87.1

87.8

88.0

58.9
62.3
63.9
63.7
65.4
68.6
70.7
73.2
75 9
76.9
78.0
80.1
81.5
83. 2
85 1
86 4
87.4

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

88.1
90.0
91.2
93.0
94.6
95.0
96.9
100.3
102.1
99.3
97.0
97.6
99.8
100.8
99.7
94.3

88. 5
89.7
91.4
93.2
94.8
95.0
97.4
100.1
101.9
98.6
97.1
98.0
99.4
100.7
99.2
93.9

88.8
89.8
91.6
93.5
94.6
95.3
97.6
100.4
101.7
98.5
97.7
98.3
99.4
100.7
98.8
93.7

88.6
90.0
92.0
93.6
94.7
95.0
97.9
100.9
101.6
98.5
97.5
98.7
99.5
100.8
98.5
93.3

88.8
90.1
92.0
93.8
95.0
95.3
98.2
100.9
101.1
98.6
97.8
99.0
99.8
100.6
97.8
93.4

88.7
90.3
92.4
94.0
95.2
95.5
98.1
100.9
101.3
99.0
98.0
98.8
99.6
100.4
97.5
93.4

89.0
90.3
92.4
93.9
95.1
95.7
98.3
101.2
101.8
98.7
97.5
98.9
99.9
100.4
97.0
93.8

89.3
90.0
92.3
94.0
95.1
96.2
98. 6
101.4
100.2
98.1
97.8
99.4
99.8
100.3
96.7
93.9

89.4
90.4
92.2
94.2
95.0
96.3
98.8
101.4
100.7
97.9
97.6
99.3
100.0
100.2
96.4
93.3

89.7
90.3
92.5
94.3
95.3
96.0
98.8
101.9
100.3
97.7
97.4
99.2
100.3
99.9
95.7
93.2

89.6
90.6
92.6
94.2
95.5
96.1
98.8
101.8
100.1
97.3
97.7
99.5
100.2
99.7
95.6
93.2

89.5
91.0
92.7
94.6
95.1
96.1
99.5
102.2
99.9
97.3
97.2
99.7
100.3
99.9
95.3
92.7

88.5
89.8
91.4
93.2
94.7
95.1
97.3
100.3
101.9
98.8
97.3
98.0
99.5
100.7
99.2
94.0

88.7
90.1
92.1
93.8
95.0
95.3
98.1
100.9
101.3
98.7
97.8
98.8
99.6
100.6
97.9
93.4

89.2
90.2
92.3
94.0
95.1
96.1
98.6
101.3
100.9
98.2
97.6
99.2
99.9
100.3
96.7
93.7

89.6
90.6
92.6
94.4
95.3
96.1
99.0
102.0
100.1
97.4
97.4
99.5
100.3
99.8
95.5
93.0

89.0
90.2
92.1
93.9
95.0
95.6
98.2
101.1
101.1
98.3
97.5
98.9
99.8
100.4
97.4
93.5

1954...
1957...
1958 .

341-C. CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1951...

0.2

1965...
1966.. .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970.. .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979.. .
1980. . .
1981...

-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.
-0.1
0.8
0.8
-0.1
-0.6
-0.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
-0.2
-1.0

0.3

0.

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.
0.
-0.4
-0.2

-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.5
-0.1
0.
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.4

0.2
0.1
0.
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.
-0.5
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.2
-0.7
0.1

-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.

0.3
0.
0.
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
-0.3
-0.5
0.1
0.3
0.
-0.5
0.4

0.3
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.
0.5
0.3
0.2
-1.6
-0.6
0.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
U.I

0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.
0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.6

0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
-0.3
0.
0.5
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
-0.3
-0.7
-0.1

-0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.

-0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
-0.4
0.
0.7
0.4
-0.2
0.
-0.5
0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-0.5

0.1

0.3

0.

0.
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1

0.2
0.
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.

0.
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.
-0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2

0.2

0.5
-0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.
0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
0.4
-0.4
-0.1
-U.5
-0.4

1964...

0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.
0.1
0.5
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.1
-0.4
-0. 5

-J41-C. CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE PERCENT)

2.4

1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

1.6
0.6
3.8
2.3
0.8
-0.7
4.1
4.2
-0.7
-3.6
-0.4
2.6
0.5
1.0
-2.8
-5.0

1.7
1.0
3.2
2.5
1.7
-0.4
4.5
4.2
-1.3
-3.0
1.1
2.7
0.5
0.9
-3.8
-4.6

1.0
1.8
3.2
2.8
1.3
0.8
4.4
2.9
-1.7
-1.8
1.4
3.3
-0.1
0.3
-4.7
-3.9

2.9

2.6

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.3

2.1
0.6
2.7
1.9
1.2
1.4
3.0
l.S
-0."
-1.2
l.C
2."
0.2
-0."
-5.^
-l.C

1.9
0.8
1.9
1.9
0.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
-3.2
-1.0
1.4
2.9
0.7
-0.7
-5.0
-0.1

1.3
1.4
1.3
1.5
0.8
2.0
2.4
1.9
-1.9
-1.2
-0.2
2.1
1.0
-1.0
-4.8
-0.9

2.4
0.7
1.2
1.5
1.4
2.U
2. 0
2. U
-2.5
-l.fc
-0.1
1.1
1."
-l.fc
-5.6
-0.2

2.0
1.2
1.2
l.U
1.1
1.7
1.1
1.8
-2.0
-2.5
-0.3
1.1
0.9
-1.8
-4.5
-0.3

1.9
1.5
0.6
1.3
-0.2
1.3
2.7
2.6
-2.8
-3.4
-1.5
1.6
1.3
-1.1
-4.4
-1.6

2.3
2.0
1.3
1.3
-0.1
2.4
4.1
1.7
-4.9
-3.4
0.3
1.7
1.8
-1.6
-5.5
-2.2

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1.3
0.8
3.1
1.8
1.6
-0.1
2.4
3.1
1.0
-3.2
-2.0
0.3
0.1
1.8
-2.2
-5.7
-2.5

1.6
0.9
2.6
2.8
0.8
0.7
2.8
3.4
0.5
-4.3
-0. 4
1.5
0.2
1.5
-2.8
-5.5
-1.1

2.6
1.4
1.1
3.4
2.5
1.3
-0.1
4.3
3.8
-1.2
-2.8
0.7
2.9
0.3
0.7
-3.8
-4.5

2.2

1.4

1.8
0.9
2.0
1.8
0.9
2.0
2.6
2.1
-1.9
-1.1
0.7
2.6
0.6
-0.8
-5.0
-0.7

2.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
0.8
1.7
1.9
2.1
-2.4
-2.5
-0.6
1.3
1.3
-1.6
-4.8
-0.7

1.3
2.6
2.0
1.2
0.2
2.5
3.5
1.1
-4.1
-1.9
0.7
0.7
1.7
-2.2
-5.6
-1.9

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown. These series are adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and
interindustry employment shifts.




0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.
0.2
0.
0.
-0.4
-0.2

1.7
1.4
2.1
1.7
0.8
1.5
3.1
2.3
-2.4
-2.1
0.4
1.8
1.0
-1.0
-4.8
-1.9

(NOVEMBER 1981)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
910

Apr.
COMPOSITE

My
a

June

July

INDEX OF 12 LEADING
(1967=100)

1948. ..
1949. ..
1950...
1951. ..
1952. . .
1953...
1954.
..
1955. ..
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960.
. .
1961. ..
1962. . .
1963. ..
1964.
. .

55.0
50.0
54.3
60.4
58.2
62.5
56.8
66.4
69.0
67.5
62.4
73.6
73.1
70.5
78.9
81.3
86.4

53.8
49.8
55.1
59.7
58.6
62.6
57.5
67.6
68.3
67.2
62.5
74.5
71.8
71.2
79.9
82.4
86.9

54.1
49.3
55.9
59.4
59.0
62.9
57.5
68.2
68.6
67.0
62.8
75.6
70.4
72.6
80.1
82.9
87.2

54.5
49.0
57.3
58.6
58.3
62.7
58.1
68.4
68.9
66.5
63.2
75.7
70.5
74.4
79.7
83.6
88.2

54.1
48.9
58.5
58.4
58.2
62.1
59.2
68.6
67.3
66.4
64.5
75.7
70.5
75.1
78.5
84.5
89.0

54.5
48.9
59.2
57.6
59.3
61.1
60.0
68.8
67.0
66.8
66.3
75.1
70.3
76.1

1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971.
..
1972...
1973.
. .
1974. ..
1975...
1976. ..
1977...
1978. ..
1979...
1980...
1981...

93.3
99.4
95.8
103.3
111.8
104.9
109.0
118.9
132.3
130.1
106.9
124.5
131.9
139.1
142.6
134.7

93.6
100.2
96.0
104.9
111.2
104.1
110.9
120.3
133.4
130.4
106.4
125.7
133.0
140.3
142.3
134.1

93.9
100.6
96.5
105.1
110.5
103.7
113.1
122.1
133.2
130.1
107.1
126.4
135.6
140.3
143.2
131.5

93.6
100.2
97.2
103.9
111.4
103.9
113.5
122.7
132.4
127.7
109.4
126.3
136.0
141.5
140.3
126.2

94.2
99.4
98.0
104.9
111.0
104.0
113.9
122.9
132.4
127.0
111.9
128.0
135.8
141.8
141.4
123.0

94.4
98.5
99.5
105.6
110.2
103.7
114.2
123.2
132.6
124.9
115.5
129.7
135.5
142.5
141.6 •
123.9

77 . 7
84.2
89.0

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

INDICATORS i
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

54.0
49.8
60.9
57.2
58.5
61.0
60.7
69.7
67.3
66.9
67.3
74.9
70.9
76.2
78.5
83.8
89.8

53.4
51.1
61.6
56.9
60.0
59.8
60.9
70.0
67.5
66.4
68.9
74.4
71.1
77.1
79.0
84.0
90.2

52.9
52.7
60.0
57.4
61.4
58.1
61.7
70.5
67.6
65.4
70.3
74.0
71.5
76.2
79.7
85.0
91.3

52.6
52.8
59.8
57.4
61.1
57.4
63.3
70.1
68.1
64.1
71.1
72.6
71.3
77.6
79.3
85.5
91.6

51.6
53.1
59.2
57.2
61.3
56.6
64.7
70.2
68.1
62.9
72.6
72.2
70.9
78.6
80.1
85.8
92.4

50.9
*53.6
59. 3
57.7
61.8
56.7
65.2
69.5
67.9
62.4
72.3
7 3.1
70.1
78.8
80.5
86.1
92.6

54.3
49.7
55.1
59.8
58.6
62.7
57.3
67.4
68.6
67.2
62.6
74.6
71.8
71.4
79.6
82.2
86.8

54.4
48.9
58.3
58.2
58.6
62.0
59.1
68.6
67.7
66.6
64.7
75.5
70.4
75.2
78.6
84.1
88.7

53.4
51.2
60.8
57.2
60.0
59.6
61.1
70.1
67.5
66.2
68.8
74.4
71.2
76.5
79.1
84.3
90.4

51.7
53.2
59.4
57.4
61.4
56.9
64.4
69.9
68.0
63.1
72.0
72.6
70.8
78.3
80.0
85.8
92.2

53.4
50.8
58.4
58.2
59.6
60.3
60.5
69.0
68.0
65.8
67.0
74.3
71.0
75.4
79.3
84.1
89.6

95.0
97.9
100.7
106.4
108.7
103.4
114.0
124.1
132.1
123.2
118.3
130.2
135.0
141.2
141.2
128.1

95.1
96.9
102.6
106.5
108.2
103.6
113.4
125.8
130.9
120.5
119.2
129.9
136.9
142.0
140.1
130.7

95.5
96.2
102.9
108.2
108.3
104.6
113.8
127.8
130.6
116.9
119.9
130.1
138.0
142.9
140.1
134.4

96.4
95.7
103.0
110.1
108.3
104.7
115.3
129.2
130.8
114.2
120.5
129.9
139.1
143.6
137.8
135.0

97.4
95.5
103.5
110.7
107.2
105.1
116.0
130.1
131.1
111.3
121.2
131.8
139.4
142.8
135.6
136.5

98.4
95.2
104.3
11115
106.2
107.4
117.5
131.6
129.8
109.2
121.7
132.5
140.2
143.0
135.2
136.3

93.6
100.1
96.1
104.4
111.2
104.2
111.0
120.4
133.0
130.2
106.8
125.5
133.5
139.9
142.7
133.4

94.1
99.4
98.2
104.8
110.9
103.9
113.9
122.9
132.5
126.5
112.3
128.0
135.8
141.9
141.1
124.4

95.2
97.0
102.1
107.0
108.4
103.9
113.7
125.9
131.2
120.2
119.1
130.1
136.6
142.0
140.5
131.1

97.4
95.5
103.6
110.8
107.2
105.7
116.3
130.3
130.6
111.6
121.1
131.4
139.6
143.1
136 .2
135.9

95.1
98.0
100.0
106.8
109.4
104.4
113.7
124.9
131.8
122.1
114.8
128.8
136.4
141.8
140.1
131.2

910-C. CHANGE IN ZOMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL R A T E , PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950. . .
1951. ..
1952...
1953. . .
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960. ..
1961...
1962.
. .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
1971...
1972.
. .
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977.
. .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981. . .

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-19.3
16.8
24.7
10.9
14.5
2.1
24.5
-8.3
-6.8
0.
23.8
0.
7.1
1.5
12.6
4.3

-23.3
-4.7
19.2
-13.1
8.6
1.9
15.8
24.0
-11.5
-5.2
1.9
15.7
-19.4
12.6
16.3
17.5
7.2

6.9
-11.4
18.9
-5.9
8.5
5.9
0.
11.2
5.4
-3.5
5.9
19.2
-21.0
26.3
3.0
7.5
4.2

9.2
-7.1
34.6
-15.0
-13.3
-3.7
13.3
3.6
5.4
-8.6
7.9
1.6
1.7
34.2
-5.8
10.6
14.7

-8.5
-2.4
28.2
-4.0
-2.0
-10.9
25.2
3.6
-24.6
-1.8
27.7
0.
0.
11.9
-16.6
13.7
11.4

9.2
0.
15.3
-15.3
25.2
-17.7
17.5
3.6
-5.2
7.5
39.1
-9.1
-3.4
17.2
-11.6
-4.2
0.

-10.5
24.5
40.5
-8.0
-15.0
-1.9
14.9
16.9
5.5
1.8
19.7
-3.1
10.7
1.6
13.1
-5.6
11.3

-12.5
36.2
14.7
-6.1
35.5
-21.2
4.0
5.3
3.6
-8.6
32.6
-7.7
3.4
15.1
7.9
2.9
5.5

-10.7
44.8
-27.1
11.1
31.9
-29.3
17.0
8.9
1.8
-16.6
27.3
-6.3
7.0
-13.1
11.2
15.3
15.7

-6.6
2.3
-3.9
0.
-5.7
-13.5
36.0
-6.6
9.2
-21.4
14.5
-20.5
-3.3
24.4
-5.9
7.3
4.0

-20.6
7.0
-11.4
-4.1
4.0
-15.5
30.0
1.7
0.
-20.3
28.5
-6.4
-6.5
16.6
12.8
4.3
11.0

-15.1
11.9
2.0
11.0
10.2
2.1
9.7
-11.3
-3.5
-9.1
-4.8
16.0
-12.7
3.1
6.2
4.3
2.6

9.5
12.9
7.8
-10.9
3.3
-13.7
19.4
15.3
6.6
2.8
-22.5
31.4
-5.3
-9.0
-3.3
-4.3
-9.3

3.9
10.1
2.5
20.3
-6.3
-8.8
23.0
15.1
10.4
2.8
-5.5
12.2
10.5
10.9
-2.5
-5.2
-0.9

3.9
4.9
6.4
2.3
-7.3
-4.5
26.6
19.5
-1.8
-2.7
8.2
6.9
26.2
0.
7.9
-20.9
15.2

-3.8
-4.7
9.1
-12.9
10.2
2.3
4.3
6.1
-7.0
-20.0
29.0
-0.9
3.6
10.8
-21.8
-39.0
7 .3

8.0
-9.2
10.3
12.2
-4.2
1.2
4.3
2.0
0.
-6.4
31.1
17.4
-1.8
2.6
9.8
-26.5
-18.3

2.6
-10.3
20.0
8.3
-8.3
-3.4
3.2
3.0
1.8
-18.1
46.2
17.2
-2.6
6.1
1.7
9.1
-9.3

7.9
-7.1
15.5
9.5
-15.2
-3.4
-2.1
9.1
-4.4
-15.2
33.3
4.7
-4.3
-10.4
-3.3
49.2
0.

1.3
-11.6
25.1
1.1
-5.4
2.3
-6.1
17.7
-10.4
-23.3
9.5
-2.7
18.3
7.0
-9.0
27.3
-6.9

5.2
-8.3
3.6
20.9
1.1
12.2
4 .3
20.8
-2.7
-30.5
7.3
1.9
10.1
7.9
0.
39.8
-23.2

11.9
13.2
-6.1
-2.5
1.2
6.0
23.2
6.7
0.
-11.5
1.2
4.7
17.0
7.5
14.0
8.7
1.9
2.8
-24.5
-26.6
6.2
7.2
-1.8
19.0
10.0
2.6
6.0
-6.5
-18.0
-17.6
5.5 .
14.2
-19.2

13.0
-3.7
9.7
9.0
-10.6
29.7
16.7
14.7
-11.3
-20.4
5.1
6.6
7.1
1.7
-3.5
-1.7

3.3
-11.8
18.3
1.9
9.3
7.4
6.0
19.9
-4.8
-5.2
2.6
19.6
-13.5
15.3
6.9
12.5
5.2
5.8
9.3
5.6
3.9
-3.4
-9.0
23.0
16.6
5.1
1.0
-6.6
16.8
10.5
0.6
0.7
-10.1
1.7

-3.2
26.0
-11.4
3.3

-10.8
18.7
3.6

-8.1
-1.0
24.9
-2.5
-0.6
21.1
-11.3
6.7
8.7
2.3

-8.1
13.1
2.5

-0.8
0.
3.9
3.7

-1.7
-14.8
35.4
11.2
-0.3
6.5

-3.4
-18.8
-6.8

-11.2
35.2
9.4
-1.0
17.5
-17.5
12.0
10.4
3.6
-7.8
26.5
-5.7
7.0
1.2
10.7
4.2
10.8

-14.1
7.1
-4.4
2.3
2.8
-9.0
25.2
-5.4
1.9
-16.9
12.7
-3.6
-7.5
14.7
4 .4
5.3
5.9

6.8
12.3
-2.1
8.2
-7.4
15.5
7.1
-1.8
-7 .7
16.7
1.9
-3.6
13.1
2.7
7.2
7.7

4.8
-9.0
14.7
10.5
-6.5
3.7
-1.3
15.9
-5.8
-23.0
16.7
1.3
8 .0
1.5
-4.1
38.8
-10.0

12 .7
-4.1
5.6
13.0
-7.4
11.9
13.7
12.5
-2.2
-23.8
6.2
7.9
6.6
0.4
-13.0
6.0

6.4
-3.0
9.8
7.5
-4.5
1.6
9.8
12.2
-1.2
-15.2
12.9
9.3
6.2
2.3
-5.0
4.0

910-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS 2
(COMPOUND A N N U A L R A T E , PERCENT)
1948...
1949 . . .
1950.
..
1951.
..
1952...
1953...
1954.
..
1955.
..
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

-13.2
15.9
3.4
10.2
8.8
6.5
19.2
-10.4
-5.2
-2.5
10.9
-2.2
1.7
6.8
12.0
5.2

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972. ..
1973. . .
1974.
..
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981.
..

5.3
12.0
2.1
5.5
1.8
-11.1
24.0
15.7
10.5
-2.1
-16.5
15.7
3.7
2.6
-1.4
-4.4
-4.0

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-12.0
18.3
0.7
9.3
7.3
5.8
19.7
-5.1
-5.2
2.6
19.5
-14.0
15.0
6.8
12.5
5.2

-3.6
-7.8
24.0
-11.4
0.7
1.3
9.5
12.6
-0.6
-5.8
5.2
11.9
-13.5
24 .0
4.1
11.8
8.6

2.2
-7.0
27.1
-8.4
-2.7
-3.2
12.4
6 .0
-5.7
-4.7
13 .4
6.6
-7.0
23.8
-6.8
10.6
10.0

3.0
-3.2
25.8
-11.6
2.0
-11.0
18.6
3.6
-9.0
-1.2
24 .2
-2.6
-0.6
20.7
-11.5
6.4
8.5

-3.6
6.7

-5.1
19.2

-11.2
34.9

-10.0
26.4

-12.8
16.6

-14.3
7.0

-18.4
11.9

-11.0

-1.2

-9.2
1.4
-10.4
19.1
7.8
-9.0
2.4
28.6
-4.2
2.3
10.0
-5.9
1.0
7.5

-9.9
13.0
-14.0
12.0
8.4
1.2
0.
30.2
-6.7
3.4
11.1
2.6
-2.3
5.5

-1.4
14.9
-18.2
11.8
10.3
3.6
-8.1
26.4
-5.7
7.0
0.5
10.7
3.9
10.7

1.4
19.0
-21.6
18.3
2 .3
4.8
-15.7
24.6
-11.7
2.3
7.6
4.1
8.4
8.3

2.1
9.0
-19.7
27.4
1.1
3.6
-19.5
23.3
-11.3
-1.1
8.0
5.7
8.9
10.1

2.1
2.6
-9.3
24.7
-5.6
1.8
-17.1
11.9
-4.8
-7.6
14.4
4.1
5.3
5.8

5.7
9.5
-4.1
21.1
-6.1
-3.5
-10.2
14.8
2.8
-4.4
6.9
10.5
4.3
7.6

-2.4
6.7
5.8
7.3
17.2
-5 .4
-5.4
1.8
14 .1
-9.9
13.6
5.9
12.1
6.3

-9.7

5.7
9.2
5.6
3.1
-3.5
-9.1
23.0
16.6
5.0
0.9
-7.5
16.4
9.7
0.3
0.6
-10.5
1.2

1.3
3.3
6.0
2.3
-1.4
-3.8
17.6
13.4
0.3
-7.2
9.7
5.9
13.0
7.1
-6.3
-23.0
7.0

2.6
-3.2
8.6
0.
-0.7
-0.4
11.3
8.9
-3.0
-10.0
22.3
7.5
8.7
4.3
-2.5
-29.2
0.3

2.1
-8.1
13.0
1.9
-1.1
0.
3.9
3.7
-1.8
-15.1
35.3
10.9
-0.3
6.4
-4.4
-21.2
-7.4

6.1
-8.9
15.2
10.0
-9.3
-1.9
1.8
4.6
-0.9
-13.4
36.7
12.9
-2.9
-0.8
2.6
6.2
-9.5

3.9
-9.7
20.1
6.2
-9.7
-1.5
-1.7
9.8
-4.5
-19.0
28.8
6.1
3.3
0.6
-3.6
27.5
-5.5

4.7
-9.0
14.4
10.2
-6.7
3.5
-1.4
15.8
-5.9
-23.3
16.1
1.2
7.6
1.1
-4.2
38.5
-10.6

6.0
-8.7
9.5
14.7
-1.5
5.1
4.6
17.5
-3.9
-26.2
7.6
-0.9
12.7
7.0
-9.3
23.3
-16.7

10.0
-5.7
3.6
16.7
-3.6
5.9
9.5
14.4
0.6
-27.2
6.9
6.0
7.5
2.3
-12.2
19.0

12.7
-4.1
5.6
12.8
-7.5
11.1
13.7
12.4
-2.4
-23.9
6.1
7.6
6.5
0.3
-13.3
5.8

13.0
0 .4
1.2
6.3
-12.0
17.5
13.1
9.9
-2.1
-23.2
14.0
6.3
0.
-2.8
-8.7
0.6

4.1
8.2
4.6
3.6
-1.0
-8.0
21.5
15.2
5.3
-2.8
-4.8
12.7
8.8
3.3
-2.4
-12.6
1.4

'This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.




2

0.5

This series contains revisions beginning with 1980.

0.2

-8.2
16.7
5.8

-7.9
-1.2
22.1
-0.1
-1.8
18.2
-8.1
6.0
8.7
3.6

-6.7
12.3
4.0

-3.7
-0.8
5.7
5.7

-1.9
-12.8
31.4
10.4
1.8
3.3

-1.4
-14.7
-5.5

-8.8
26.8

-15.2
11.8

6.6

-3. 3
15.6
-17.9
14.0
7.0
3.2
-7.9
27.1
-8.0
4.2
6.4
5.8
3.3
8.2

3. 3
7.0
-11.0
24.4
-3.5
0.6
-15.6
16.7
-4.4
-4.4
9.8
6.8
6.2
7.8

-3.*0
7.4
-7.8
15.6
6.6
-2.4
-7.5
16.9
0.4
-2.9
12.0
2.6
6.9
7.8

4.9
-9.1
14.7
10.4
-6.0
2.4
0.5
14.4
-4.8
-22.8
17.5
2.1
7.9
2.9
-5.7
29.8
-10.9

11.9
-3.1
3.5
11.9
-7 .7
11.5
12.1
12.2
-1.3
-24.8
9.0
6.6
4 .7
-0.1
-11.4
8.5

6.1
-2.7
8.7
7.5
-4.6
1.3
10.0
11.9
-0.7
-15.8
13.3
8.0
5.8
2.4
-5.2
2.7

(NOVEMBER 1981)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
920.

Apr.

My
a

C O M P O S I T E

O F4 R O U G H L Y
( 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 )

I N D E X

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. ..
1955. . .
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
1959. . .
1960...
1961. ..
1962...
1963. ..
1964...

5
4
4
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
6
7
7
7

0
9
8
7
8
3
0
2
8
9
4
7
2
7
2
4
8

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

2
8
2
7
0
8
2
1
4
7
6
3
0
4
3
8
9

5
4
4
5
5
6
6
6
6
7
6
6
7
6
7
7
7

0
9
7
7
8
4
0
2
8
0
3
8
1
7
3
5
9

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

1
3
9
5
9
3
2
5
3
2
3
0
8
1
0
4
7

5
4
4
5
5
6
5
6
6
7
6
6
7
6
7
7
7

0
8
9
7
8
4
9
3
8
0
2
9
1
7
3
5
9

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

6
8
4
7
9
9
6
7
3
1
4
0
2
6
5
7
7

5
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
6
7
7
8

0
8
0
8
8
4
9
4
8
9
1
0
1
7
3
6
0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

2
4
5
0
7
9
3
5
9
4
4
0
4
9
9
3
7

5
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
6
7
7
8

0
7
1
7
8
5
9
5
8
9
1
0
1
8
4
6
1

1965...
1966. ..
1967. ..
1968...
1969. ..
1970...
1971...
1972. ..
1973. ..
1974. ..
1975...
1976. ..
1977. ..
1978. ..
1979. ..
1980...
1981...

8
9
9
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
1
2
2
3
4
4

5
3
9
2
8
0
8
3
4
7
5
0
6
4
4
6

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

5
7
3
8
7
3
3
8
8
7
4
3
3
0
8
1

8
9
9
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
1
2
2
3
4
4

6
4
8
3
9
0
8
4
6
7
3
1
7
5
4
5

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

1
4
8
5
4
3
1
2
1
0
7
6
6
0
9
2

8
9
9
1 0
1 0
11
1 0
1 1
1 2
1 2
1 1
1 2
12
13
1 4
1 4

7
5
8
3
9
0
8
5
6
6
2
2
9
6
6
3

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

0
5
9
9
9
4
5
4
7
9
3
4
7
9
6
5

87
95
99
04
10
10
0 8
16
2 6
2 6
1 2
2 3
30
39
4 4
4 0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

4
6
2
2
2
1
9
4
6
6
6
3
0
3
1
5

8
9
9
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

8
6
9
0
1
0
0
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
4
3

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

920-C. CHANGE

1948...
1949. ..
1950. ..
1951...
1952. ..
1953. ..
1954...
1955. ..
1956. . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965. ..
1966...
1967. ..
1968.. .
1969...
1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974. ..
1975. . .
1976. ..
1977. . .
1978...
1979...
1980.. .
1981. . .

- 2 1 . 2
1 9 . 2
1 1 . 0
2.1
7.8
- 1 3 . 0
14.6
1.8
- 5 . 0
- 1 6 . 8
2 1 . 9
16.3
- 1 . 8
- 6 . 4
0.
4.7

-11.4
-7.2
-4.1
20.3
9.8
0.
8.0
-1.7
9.0
-21.6
13.2
-3.3
-5.2
12.3
10.1
12.9

1 2 . 7
- 1 1 . 5
44.8
4.3
0.
11.8
- 1 1 . 3
2 5 . 6
0.
- 1 . 7
- 1 5 . 8
1 9 . 1
- 9 . 6
9.3
8.5
4.9
0.

2.8
6.6
10.2
- 4 . 6
2.2
- 1 2 . 2
1 1 . 8

8.8
9.3
-5.9
8.5
8.0
0.
-2.2
4.3
13.2
-6.4
-16.3
13.8
13.1
9.3
0.8
-7.1
4 .3

13.3
1 4 . 9
1.2
4.7
5.6
1.1
4.5
1 3 . 4
5.9
- 0 . 9
- 1 3 . 8
8.2
2 1 . 6
18.3
15.0
- 1 3 . 2
- 0 . 8

- 2 . 4

21.1
9.1
- 1 1 . 4
- 2 1 . 1
15.1
- 7 . 3
- 1 4 . 0
- 5 . 6
7.7
6.1

920-C. CHANGE

1948...
1949. ..
1950. ..
1951. ..
1952. . .
1953. . .
1954...
1955...
1956. ..
1957...
1958. ..
1959. . .
1960. ..
1961...
1962. ..

IN U O M P O S I T E

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

-9.1
- 9 . 4
30.2
6.4
-4.0
0.
- 5 . 9
1 6 . 2
11.1
- 1 1 . 3
- 1 7 . 6
18.8
3.4
5.5
6.7
9.9
1 6 . 1
5.7
1.3
3.7
3.5
3.3
3 . 2
4.5
0 . 9
0 . 9
2.8
3.3
9.2
2.8
3.2
8 . 6
2 . 4
1 . 7

1
-

2
- 1
- 2
-

0.
0 . 8
0.5
2.1
4.9
7.1
5 . 8
6 . 4
3.0
1 . 7
8 . 4
7 . 0
3 . 3
3.0
9.2

9.0

5.7

9.4

8.3

1965. ..
1966. ..
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976...
1977. ..
1978...
1979. ..
1980. . .
1981...

11.4
9.9
2.0

8.2
10.2
1.6
2.7
5.3
-3.9
4.5
12.7
9.4

9.2
8.4
-0.4
5.6

9.1
7.4
0.8
5.9
3.3
2 . 2
4.5
9.8
2.6
0.
1 . 1
6.1
9.7
4 . 0
1.9
8 . 4
0 . 8

1

- 1
2
-

6.4
1
1
1
- 2
1

4.9
3 . 9
0 . 6
2 . 9
1.9
8.1
2 . 5
1.3
6.5
0.9
1.7
0.6
4.9

. 0
. 1
. 0
5 . 0
0 . 3
9 . 7
9 . 3
6 . 9
6 . 9
7 . 0
3 . 4
3 . 4
0 . 6
9 . 5
5 . 6
8 . 0

8
9
9
0
1
0
0
1
2
2
1
2
3
4
4
3

4
5
9
0
5
7
2
7
5
2
4
1
7
6
9
0
5

51.5
46.9
54.9
57.4
57.5
64.9
59.0
66.4
66.1
69.2
63.4
70.4
70.3
69.7
74.3
77.1
82.1

51.6
47.4
56.6
57.7
60.0
64.1
59.0
66.3
68.3
69.2
64.0
68.4
69.9
70.4
74.5
77.3
82.7

8
7
9
1 5
1 0
1 9
1 9
1 6
1 7
1 7
1 4
1 3
1 1
1 0
1 5
1 6

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

6
1
2
8
8
2
5
6
2
1
2
6
3
1
0
7

89.5
97.4
99.5
106.3
111.5
109.3
109.3
117.5
127.7
126.9
115.1
124.0
131.7
140.5
145.4
136.5

89.8
97.6
100.3
106.4
111.8
108.9
109.0
119.0
127.'2
126.1
116.7
124.3
131.9
141.4
145.0
136.7

23.6
- 7 . 3
31.7
2.1
- 7 . 9
-5.4
2.0
5.6
0.
1.7
16.7
5.2
- 6 . 5
1 9 . 0
- 1 . 6
6.4
3.0

8 . 6
6 . 5
- 2 . 4
9 . 6
1 . 1
- 4 . 3
4 . 5
5 . 3
2 . 9
3 . 9
8 . 9
1 . 0
5 . 7
1 . 7
1 3 . 2
- 1 9 . 4
0 .

8.5
13.2
2.5
9.5
5.6
- 5 . 3
2.2
- 3 . 0
2.9
0.9
8.8
2.0
6.6
5.3
^ 4 . 8
- 1 0 . 7
2.6

.
3 .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

-6.4
-17.1
12.3
8.4
3.6
3.1
-4.6
3.2

- 1
2

1
- 1
1
-

5.6
- 0 . 7
2.2
9.5
5.9
- 3 . 4
- 9 . 4
10.4
12.2
16.8
- 1 . 9
- 1 4 . 5
0.6

-

-

1
- 1
-

9 . 3
7
6
1
7
3
- 4
3
4
1
0
6
4
5
9
- 4
- 1
0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
7 .
.

6
9
2
5
3
3
7
2
6
6
9
0
0
7
3
6
3

10.8
- 1 1 . 8
39.7
- 4 . 1
-7.9
0.
- 2 . 0
12.3
- 1 5 . 3
-1.1
1 3 . 7
2.3
- 6 . 0
11.0
2.2

100

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

II Q

5
4
5
5
6
6
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
8
5
7
1
3
9
6
9
8
4
8
9
0
4
7
3

2.4
-14.1
56.1
-11.7
-18.7
3.8
-4.0
13.6
-34.8
0.
21.0
-11.2
-6.6
1.7
6.7
1.6
9.2
12.9
3.8
3.7
5.8
7.8
1.1
-2.2
9.7
4.8
-1.9
9.9
4 .0
3.7
3.5
3.4
-1.7
0.8

9.0
-3.3
43.6
-1.4
7.7
-5.4
-0.7
5.6
-1.2
0.6
16.5
-12.9
-6.6
10.9
2.7

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

5
1
9
4
7
4
3
9
0
6
6
1
6
4
5
7
3

90.3
9 7 . 8
0 0 .4
06.7
1 1 . 9
0 8 . 7
09.8 •
19.4
27.9
2 5 . 4
17.5
2 4 . 3
3 2 . 6
4 1 . 4
44.9
38.1

51.6
46.0
56.1
57.7
62.5
63.1
59.6
67.5
69.7
67.9
65.0
67.9
69.3
71.3
74.7
78.3
82.3

51.3
46.9
55.9
57.9
62.9
62.0
60.7
67.9
69.6
66.8
66.5
68.5
68.5
72.3
75.1
78.0
83.8

91.4
98.3
100.3
107.4
112.4
106.4
109.9
121.3
128.9
124.2
117.9
124.1
133.8
143.0
145.1
139.7

92.2
98.3
101.9
108.1
111.4
105.4
110.8
122.6
129.7
121.2
118.4
125.6
134.7
144.3
145.0
140.8

1 - M O N T H

8
5
2
9
4
9
4
3
0
6
2

71.1
67.5
72.7
74.8
78.6
85.3
93.2
98.5
103.2
108.5
111.5
107.3
112.0
123.9
129.0
117.7
118.9
127.1
135.7
145.5
145.2
141.3

-11.1
1 6 . 5
31.8
0.
10.0
- 1 9 . 3
1 4 . 8
7.3
7.1
- 1 9 . 5
- 5 . 3
56.4
- 1 6 . 2
6.8
- 4 . 7
9.6
23.7

6.9
2.5
1.2
3.4
1.1
- 2 . 2
9.2
4.1
6.8
-6.5
8.5
0.
6.6
0.
- 0 . 8
13.0
-4. 9

4.1
2.5
10.1
1.1
3.3
-4.3
-3.2
16.4
-4.6
-7.3
18.0
2.9
1.8
8.0
-3.3
1.8
0.

0.8
5.1
24.7
-4.1
23 .7
-7.8
0.7
7.5
3.0
-3.4
14.9
-15.8
-6.1
4.7
3.3

15.6
6.3
-1.2
8.2
5.5
-22.6
1.1
20.9
9.8
-10.9
4.2
-1.9

11.0
0.
20.9
8.1
-10.2
-10.7
10.3
13.6
7.7

13.8
2.5
16.4
4.5
1.1
23.9
13.8
13.5
-6.3
- 2 9 . 6
5.2
1 5 . 3
9.3
10.4
1.7
4.3

-

3
- 1

2
1
- 1
-

11.4
14.5
1.7
14 .8
-10.4

3 - M O N T H

0.8
7 . 5
9.0
2.1
9.6
0 . 6
4.1
6.8
3.6
7 . 3
0.5
3 . 5
5 . 6
9.5
2.2

S P A N S

5
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
6
7
7
8

8 6 . 2
9 4 . 5
99.0
1 0 3 . 4
1 0 9 . 3
1 1 0 . 3
1 0 8 . 3
1 1 4 . 5
1 2 5 . 9
1 2 7 . 2
113s.8
1 2 1 . 4
1 2 7 . 9
1 3 5 . 3
1 4 5 . 4
1 4 4 . 9

8
9
9
0
1
0
0
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
4
3

0
9
8
7
8
4
0
2
8
0
3
8
1
7
2
5
9

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

0
7
1
8
8
4
9
5
8
9
1
0
1
8
3
6
1

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

7
9
7
0
7
9
2
2
6
2
8
6
1
7
9
6
2

F O R P E R I O D

8
6
9
1 5
1 0
1 9
1 9
1 6
1 6
1 6
1 3
1 3
1 0
1 9
1 4
1 8

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

0
3
1
0
4
7
2
6
9
9
4
4
6
6
9
4

5
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
7
5
7
9
4
9
6
7
9
4
9
9
0
4
7
2

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

8
9
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
2
1
2
3
4
4
3

9
7
0
6
1
9
9
8
7
6
6
4
2
1
5
7

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

9
6
1
5
7
0
4
6
6
1
4
2
1
1
1
1

7.1

9.1

1.0

5.4

7.9
2.9
4.9
3.4
4.0
-1.8
1.1
10.0
2.2
-5.2
12.1
2.3
4.0
3.8
-0.3
4.2
-1.4

8.8
3.7
3.3

11.1
2.9
6.5
6.5
-1.4
-12.2
6.8
12.7
8.1
-14.7
6.0
4.2
8.8
8.5
0.
12.5

4.2
3.3
- 1 0 . 2
2.2
1 3 . 6
3.8
-8.2
10.1
0.3
6.5
7.3
- 0 . 8
9.7
- 5 . 2

5
4
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8

5
5
8
5
7
1
1
5
8
0
0
0
9
2
4
4
7

-25.4
5.2
15.5
8.4
11.5
-0.8
9.9

- 1 4 . 7
1 8 . 9
3.7
7.5
9.8
- 8 . 1
16.1
0.
0.8
- 1 8 . 1
18.1
1.1
0.8
4.8
5.0
5.9

- 1
3
1
1
1

7.3
0 . 2
1.5
2.2
2 . 6
1 . 2
2 . 6
3.3
1.5
4 . 9
1.0
2 . 9
2 . 7
2 . 5
2.2
7.0
9.5

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
6
6
7
2
2
0
7
9
6
5
9
8
2
4
8
3

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

9
9
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
2
1
2
3
4
4
4

2
8
1
8
1
6
0
2
9
1
8
5
4
4
5
0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

3
4
8
0
8
4
9
6
2
0
4
6
7
3
1
6

5 0
47
53
57
60
63
59
65
68
68
63
69
70
69
74
76
81

2
8
4
8
9
0
6
9
8
8
9
2
4
1
9
3
8

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

9
9
1
7
0
8
7
6
6
8
8
2
3
6
0
9
8

8
9
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
2
1
2
3
4
4
4

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

1
7
0
7
8
8
4
1
4
3
5
7
3
1
1
3

9
6
0
5
0
8
9
8
7
5
5
3
1
0
5
0

F O R P E R I O D

2
2
-

1
- 1
-

8.3
1 0 . 3
1.8
2.9
5.3
- 3 . 7
4.7

7.6
7.0
1.3
7.5
3.3
- 4 . 3
3.7

12.9
9.4
-6.2
-17.1
12.4
9.1
4.5
3.4

4.4
1.6

1

0.7
7.0

1

4.1
5.0
10.1
-3.4

-

- 4 . 2
3.2

- 1 7 . 5
0.3

-

-

0.8
6.2
8.8
3 . 8
9.2
7 . 4
0.8
7.7
8.8
3 . 3
4 . 9
5 . 2
6 . 1
4.8
3.3
3.7
9.1

- 5 . 2
0.4
1 0 . 7
3.6
11.6
- 1 4 . 6
1 5 . 2
8.6
6.1
- 1 6 . 3
11.3
21.3
- 1 1 . 4
13.8
1.7
4.9
1 1 . 5

8.0
2.9
5.0
3.4
4.1
1 . 8
1.3
0.1
2.3
5 . 2
2.1
2.3
4.0
3.8
0 . 2
4.4
1 . 4

13.5
2.9
1 2 . 0
6.9
- 1 . 2
- 3 . 1
8.4
16.0
3.7
- 2 2 . 0
4.9
9.6
9.7
12.1
0.9
9.7

- 4 . 6
22.5
1.4
11.4
- 3 . 3
1.3

11.4
4.1
-5.9
2.3
9.3
-4.8
8.0
3.0
5.2
9.0
9.3
5.8
5.0
5.2
2.9
-3.2
4.5
10.8
4.3
-8.2
1.7
7.1
7.0
7.6
0.2
-1.9

2

F O R P E R I O D

A V E R A G E
-2.3
-4.2
-4.9
1.4
20.8
-12.5
12.0
10.0
7.8
-13.2
16.6
0.6
-7.8
11.2
3.3

8.4
6.4

2

3
3
5
6
6
3
0
8
3
0
4
1
7
4
9
3
4

5
4
4
5
5
6
6
6
6
7
6
6
7
6
7
7
7

A V E R A G E
-6.8
26.2
-4.2
4.2
8.0
-19.0
24.5
7.3
-1.7
-17.8
31.5
11.1
-13.0
18.2
6.6
-4.5
24.2

7.1

5.4
5.6
-2.9
-1.1
7.4
0.9
-2.8
12.2
2.9
4.0
5.6
-1.6
-3.7
1.1

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

2.4
-41.5
4 .4
6.5
16.7
-5.5
6.2
11.3
12.9
-11.6
7.7
-3.5
-5.1
16.5
3.3
9.7
-13.5

1
1
1
-

Annual

2

S P A N S

10.0
7.7
1.2
8.3
4.8
- 2 . 9
1.5
3.8
3.5
1.0
9.2
2.3
5.3
3.5
3.7
- 1 0 . 9
1.1

5.4

50
47
57
57
63
6 0
61
68
70
65
66

2 . 3
9.2
3 . 9
6.1
9.8
2 . 3
6.3
1.4
3.0
9 . 9
1.8
5 . 1
5 . 0
0.
0.
6.4
9.1

1
- 1
3
- 1

2.4
13.6
44.2
6.5
66.6
-13.8
0.
-1.8
48.1
0.
12.0
-29.2
-6.6
12.7
3.3
3.2
9.1

IV Q

III Q

1

A V E R A G E

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.




Sept.

INDICATORS

1
7
2
8
8
4
9
5
8
9
2
1
0
9
3
7
1

4
9
6
0
2
9
0
1
7
1
0
6
9
1
6
8
3

7
- 1
3 2
- 2
4
1
- 4
1 8
- 6
- 5
4
1 4
- 4
1 3
1
4
9

3.2
6 . 5
- 1 1 . 6
- 1 0 . 2
35.7
3 1 . 5
2.8
2 . 1
0. - 2 . 7
4.4
- 1 . 2
- 7 . 1
- 2 . 7
19.9
1 3 . 2
1.2
1 . 2
-6.1
- 5 . 0
- 1 0 . 3
0 .
1 7 . 5
1 2 . 7
-3.8
- 2 . 8
9.2
1 2 . 4
5.6
2 . 2

1964. ..

- 1
1

5
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
6
7
7
8

COINCIDENT

Aug.

I N D I C A T O R S O V E R
IN C O M P O S I T I: I N D E X O F 4 R O U G H L Y C O I N C I D E N T
( C O M P O U N D A N N U A L
R A T E , PERCENT

-14.8
17.0
3.5
7.1
9.8
-8.3
15.8
0.
0.6
-18.1
18.0
0.6
0.6
4.5

1

5
8
7
9
9
0
1
4
5
1
6
S
1
6
0
6
3

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

July

I N D E X O F4 R O U G H L Y C O I N C I D E N T
I N D I C A T O R S O V E R
( C O M P O U N D A N N U A L
R A T E , PERCENT

...
4 . 7
8.8
2 . 0
7.1
9.2
1 . 1
2 . 4
2.4
3.5
9 . 4
9.3
0 . 7
7 . 9
3.9

- 1

June

-5.3
- 4 . 9
9.6
3.5
1 1 . 5
- 1 4 . 9
14.9
8.6
5.9
- 1 6 . 4
10.3
1 8 . 8
-11.5
1 3 . 7
1.6

-13.2
20.5
11.9
2.1
8.6
- 1 7 . 2
17.9
5.4
0.
- 1 8 . 1
1 4 . 9
26.4
- 1 0 . 5
5.7
0.5

10.0

16.5

1 3 . 5
2.9
1 1 . 6
6.9

1 0 . 5
4.1
10.3
4.9
- 7 . 3
7.3
15.0
12.1
- 3 . 7
- 2 5 . 5
8.4
7.3
0.6
5.1
2.8
6.7

-1.4
-5.1
8.3
15.9
3.5
-22.4
4.9
9.3
9.7
12.1
0.8
9.6

-13.4
15.4
5.9
6.4
8.7
-8 .4
14.9
1.8
0.8
-18.6
14.8
6.0
-1.4
5.9
8.0
9.6
9.5
1.1
4.9
5.3
-2.8
5.8
11.7
9.1
-6.0
-16.3
11.3
9.0
7.1
1.0
-6.2
2.9

This series contains revisions beginning with 1980.

6.8
- 1 1 . 2
35.6
0.3
- 3 . 5
1.1
- 3 . 9
15.1
- 4 . 3
- 4 . 1
1.1
10.8
-4.2
10.9
3.3
5 9
8.2
8.9
7.3

1.1
7.2
3.8
- 3 . 1
3.2
5.9
2.6
0.5

5.0
4.1
6.7
9.1
0.4
- 1 5 . 6
0.2

2
2
-

1
- 1
-

3.5
1 . 9
5.8
1 . 1
3.7
7 . 9
1.4
6.6
8.5
3 . 4
4.0
4 . 1
6 . 1
8.4
2.7
5.7

8.4
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.3
- 5 . 0
0.7
1 0 . 3
2.3
- 5 . 4

11.5
1.8
4.8
5.6
-0.9
3.4
-1.8

- 6 . 9
3.8
5.5
2.3
13.6
- 1 4 . 9
1 4 . 9
8.0
4.6
- 1 5 . 9
13.9
15.3
- 9 . 9
10.2
1.8
3.8
10.6
11.7
3.3
9.5
6.1
- 3 . 4
- 3 . 3
10.0
1 3 . 6
2.6
- 2 0 . 9
6.4
6.9
6.4
8.6

1.2
9.6

-5.7
20.6
1.8
10.0
-3.3
1.0
11.2
2.6
-5.6
2.6
6.7
-3.6
7.0
3.4
4 .8
8.2
9.6
6.1
4.0
5.6
2.5
-3.6
4.9
10.4
4.1
-7.9
1.6
6.1
6.7
7.6
0.4
-2.2

(NOVEMBER 1981)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

930. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS
(1967=100)

Nov.

Dec.

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

74.3
69.0
70.9
77.7
73.1
74.9
77.2
81.2

49.1
47 .4
52.8
59.8
63.9
67.7
61.8
67.4
73.1
75.2
68.3
74.1
76.9
72.5
76.5
79.9*
83.2

46.4
49.5
47.2
54.7
60.5
65.3
66.5
62.1
68.6
73.5
73.4
68.4
75.2
75.7
73.3
76.6
80.1

47.1
48.9
47.8
57.0
61.5
67.3
64.5
62.9
71.2
74.1
70.4
70.0
77.1
73.7
74.4
76.9
81.0

48.8
47.9
49.3
58.5
62.2
68.1
62.5
65.3
72.5
75.1
68.0
72.9
77.1
72.7
75.4
78.0
81.9

49.0
47.7
52.2
59.3
63.2
67.9
61.7
67.2
73.0
75.1
68.0
74.5
76.6
72.5
76.4
79.4
82.8

47.8
48 .5
49.1
57.4
61.8
67.2
63.8
64.4
71.3
74.4
70.0
71.4
76.5
73.6
74.9
77 .7
81.4

86.9
95.6
100.1
104.1
114.4
115.9
105.8
106.9
121.7
140.4
122.4
120.1
125.0
142.0
163.6
168.5

87.1
96.6
100.2
103.9
115.1
115.7
107.1
106.9
124.4
142.2
122.7
120.4
125.2
143.5
164.8
163.6

87.8
97.5
99.8
104.4
115.4
116.0
108.1
107.2
127.4
142.6
122.4
120.0
126.5
144.5
166.4
161.7

87.5
9 7..6
100.0
104.6
116.0
115.3
108.1
108.1
129.6
143.2
122.1
121.1
127.8
146.4
170 .6
164.2

88.2
97.8
99.5
104.5
116.9
114.2
107.3
108.9
129.6
143.1
122.7
120.7
129.4
148.1
175.9
168.5

88.9
99.0
99.9
105.2
116.7
112.7
106.6
109.5
130.0
141.9
120.6
120.2
131.1
152.7
179.1
175.6

89.9
99.4
101.0
106.8
117.3
111.1
106.6
110.2
131.5
141.9
120.1
119.9
131.7
155.2
177.9
191.0

84.6
91.4
99.9
101.3
108.8
117.9
108.1
105.0
114.2
132.1
136.3
119.1
121.0
135.7
158.1
183.1

86.6
94.5
99.9
103.4
112.6
115.7
106.3
106.3
119.8
138.4
126.1
119.3
123.5
139.9
162.6
182.7

87.5
97.2
100.0
104.3
115.5
115.7
107.8
107.4
127.1
142.7
122.4
120.5
126.5
144.8
167.3
163.2

89.0
98.7
100.1
105.5
117.0
112.7
106.8
109.5
130.4
142.3
121.1
120.3
130.7
152.0
177.6
178.4

86.9
95.5
100.0
103.6
113.5
115.5
107.2
107.0
122.9
138.9
126.5
119.8
125.4
143.1
166.4
176.8

2.7
-3.3
22.1
7.0
13.2
-10.7
4.7
12.5
2.4
-12.1
2.4
12.2
-8.5
6.5
1.1
3.2

7.1
-6.3
9.8
18.5
11.5
9.8
-12.1
8.5
15.3
4.5
-19.2
13.5
8.2
-10.6
7.3
2.7
3.6

14.5
-7.9
21.1
6.4
-0.5
6.2
-11.3
17.1
3.9
7.8
-5.4
18.0
-5.0
-1.5
4.4
5.3
8 .4

1.3
-1.0
21.1
7.1
10.8
-4.1
0.1
7.6
4.2
-2.3
1.9
1.5
1.1
-1.5
4.3
9.0
2.4

-3!l
12.2
13.5
7.2
6.3
-8.5
9.5
9.0
3.1
-8.7
8.9
4.1
-5.5
5.6
4.5
4.4

11.0
12.2
3.3
2.1
11.3
1.1
-12.7
-6.0
22.4
0.4
-23.6
-4.6
6.2
17.9
8.8
34.1
-19.1

7.3
14.1
-0.3
10.8
18.5
-5.1
-5.3
7.8
21.7
31.0
-26.6
4.9
11.5
15.0
14.2
-24.1
31.2

3.0
8.8
-0.4
2.0
5.7
-2.0
9.2
4.7
28.7
8.4
-0.9
3.6
9.4
13.0
18 .8
-7.6
7.1

11.4
7.8
4.4
9.0
4.7
-13.8
-5.4
8.0
6.2
-3.5
-5.8
-3.9
12.9
26.9
20.3
91.6

8.2
10.7
1.8
6.0
10.1
-4.9
-3.5
3.6
19.7
9.1
-14.3
0.
10.0
18.2
15.5
23.5

0.3
-2.2
19.1
5.5
14.7
-9.7
2.6
10.7
1.3
-11.6
4.0
9.7
-7.4
4.9
0.9
4 .2

8.6
-6.1
8.2
16.9
9.6
9.2
-12.0
8.4
16.5
3.7
-17.6
12.8
7.8
-9.7
6.7
3.3
2.3

10.7
-6.1
19.7
8.1
2.0
3.6
-11.8
18.1
1.2
5.2
-7.2
18.1
-3.4
-2.4
5.3
5.6
7.8

4.2
-3.3
24.3
7.0
10.5
-3.2
-0.2
9.2
6.0
-1.6
1.2
2.3
-1.2
0.
4.0
7 .2
2.9

-3.8
12.5
12.8
6.9
6.1
-8.4
9.6
8.6
2.1
-8.8
9.3
3.2
-4.9
5.2
4.3
4.3

11.0
13.1
1.8
4.9
12.7
-0.7
-12.0
-4.2
20.9
4.6
-23.1
-4.2
5.3
14.9
12.1
26.8
-4.2

7.6
13.9
0.7
8.7
15.3
-4.6
-2.9
6.5
21.4
25.4
-23.0
3.8
9.4
15.0
10.6
-27.9
21.8

4.4
9.0
-1.1
2.3
8.1
-1.8
5.0
5.2
25.2
6.8
-4.8
2.4
11.6
13.3
19.3
-12.3
1.0

8.8
7.6
3.3
8.6
4.3
-14.2
-5.9
10.3
8.3
-4.1
-7.4
-1.6
14.5
26.2
19.4
60.3

7.9
10.9
1.2
6.1
10.1
-5.3
-3.9
4.4
19.0
8.2
-14.6
0.1
10.2
17.4
15.4
11.7

47.0
49.0
47.9
57.0
61.4
67.4
64.5
62.7

47.5
48.6
48.1
57.9
62.4
67.4
63.7
63.7

1956 . . .
1 9 5 7 . ..
1 9 5 8 . ..
1959. . .
1 9 6 0 . ..
1961...
1962. ..
1963...
1964...

73.7
74.3
68.2
74.1
76.1
73.3
76.4
79.6

73.3
73.2
68.4
75.4
75.8
73.1
76.6
80.2

73.5
72.8
68.7
76.2
75.2
73.6
76.7
80.5

74.0
71.9
69.2
76.4
74.2
74.0
76.6
80.9

74.1
70.2
69.9
77.2
73.8
74.3
76.8
80.8

83.9
90.3
99.9
100.8
108.0
118.0
108.7
105.4
112.5
132.9
140.6
119.5
120.2
134.1
157.4
178.4

84.5
91.5
99.7
101.5
108.8
118.1
108.2
104.6
114.2
131.8
135.9
119.0
121.0
135.9
158.5
180.8

85.4
92.5
100.2
101.5
109.7
117.6
107.3
104.9
115.9
131.5
132.4
118.7
121.7
137.2
158.4
190.0

86.1
93.5
99.7
102.3
111.2
115.6
106.5
105.6
118.2
135.5
129.0
118.7
122.3
137.8
161.8
196.2

86.7
94.5
99.8
103.7
112.1
115.5
106.7
106.3
119.5
139.4
126.9
119.2
123.1
140.0
162.5
183.5

930-C. CHANGE IN :OMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGiNG INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

SPANS 2
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

10.2
0.
28.1
12.7
16.1
-8.5
2.0
13.2
10.3
-13.5
-1.7
0.
-11.8
14.1
-1.6
-4.4

8.1
2.5
-4.9
19.3
0.
13.8
-10.2
2.0
5.4
-6.3
-16.4
3.6
23.2
-4.6
-3.2
3.2
9.4

8.0
-4.7
-5.0
19.0
8.2
9.6
-13.5
10.1
19.0
3.3
-6.4
5.4
13.5
-9.1
8.5
1.6
4.6

5.3
-7.0
7.9
16.2
-3.9
22.0
-8.7
-5.6
18.7
8.5
-13.9
9.1
3.2
-14.8
6.7
-1.6
6.1

2.6
-2.4
16.3
18.5
17.0
7.4
-13.7
10.1
18.4
1.6
-25.0
12.8
13.3
-6.3
5.0
3.2
-1.5

13.5
-9.4
5.1
20.7
21.4
0.
-13.9
20.9
8.7
3.3
-18.7
18.6
8.1
-10.8
10.1
6.4
6.1

25.3
-9.4
5.1
4.2
-3.8
9.3
-7.3
7.8
20.0
1.6
-10.0
16.3
-4.5
-7.9
3.3
9.7
-2.9

13.1
-9.5
24.8
10.8
-3.8
0.
-17.4
32.0
-15.3
11.9
-11.6
22.0
-3.1
0.
4.9
3.1
14.2

5.0
-4.9
33.5
4 .2
6.0
9 .2
-9.2
11.5
6.9
10.0
5.4
15.8
-7.5
3.4
4.9
3.1
14.0

-13.7
13.4
23.7
4.2
5.9
-3.5
-5.7
11.4
1.7
-13.4
0.
13.8
-4.6
-1.6
6.5
9.6
1.5

24.7
-14.0
35.0
4.1
7.9
-5.2
6.0
13.3
14.1
6.6
-3.5
-1.6
3.2
-6.4
6.5
12.9
-8.3

-7.0
-2.5
4.7
12.9
18.6
-3.5
0.
-1.8
-3.2
0.
9.2
-7.8
4.8
3.4
0.
4.6
13.9

10.6
5.5
6.2
-2.4
14.3
7.4
-23.1
-12.7
28.1
13.5
-10.5
-5.8
3.0
24.2
18.4
3.4
-11.3

8.9
17.2
-2.4
8.7
9.3
1.0
-5.4
-8.7
19.7
-9.5
-33.5
-4.9
8.3
17.4
8.7
17.4
-17.5

13.6
13.9
6.2
0.
10.4
-5.0
-9.5
3.5
19.4
-2 .7
-26.9
-3.0
7.2
12.1
-0.8
81.4
-28.4

10.3
13.8
-5.8
9.9
17.7
-18.6
-8.6
8.3
26.6
43.3
-26 .8
0.
6.1
5.4
29.0
47.0
-11.9

8.7
13.6
1.2
17.7
10.2
-1.0
2.3
8.2
14.0
40.6
-17.9
5.2
8.1
20.9
5.3
-55.2
95.6

2.8
14.9
3.7
4.7
27.6
4.2
-9.7
7.0
24.5
9.0
-35.2
9.4
20.2
18.6
8.4
-64.1
9.9

2.8
13.3
1.2
-2.3
7.6
-2.1
15.8
0.
30.1
16.5
3.0
3.0
1.9
13.4
9.2
-29.8
12 . 6

10.1
11.8
-4.7
5.9
3.2
3.2
11.8
3.4
33.1
3.4
-2.9
-3.9
13.2
8.7
12.3
-13.1
4.4

-4.0
1.2
2.4
2.3
6.4
-7.0
0.
10.6
22.8
5.2
-2.9
11.6
13.1
17.0
34.9
20.2
4.4

10.0
2.5
-5.8
-1.1
9.7
-10.9
-8.5
9.3
0.
-0.8
6.1
-3.9
16.1
14.9
44 .4
36.4
-39.6

9.9
15.8
4.9
8.3
-2.0
-14.7
-7.6
6.8
3.8
-9.6
-18.7
-4.9
17.0
44.3
24.2
64.1

14 .4
5.0
14.0
19.9
6.3
-15.8
0.
7.9
14.8
0.
-4.9
-3.0
5.6
21.5
-7.8
174.2

1.6
-2.5
17.0
8.4
16.1
-7.4
1.3
5.4
0.
-10.2
3.6
4.4
-4.1
4.5
0.5
3.0

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968. ..
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978. ..
1979...
1980. . .
1981...

11.1
12.2
2.9
6.6
14.4
4.9
-15.0
-7.3
18.3
5.7
-15.9
-5.2
2.7
15.5
16.1
3.9
26.2

ZOMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

SPANS 2
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

2.5
-3.3
22.1
6.9
13.1
-10.8
4.6
12.4
2.2
-12.2
2.4
11.8
-8.6
6.2
1.0
3.0

7.1
-3.2
-0.8
18.2
1.3
15.0
-10.8
2.0
14.2
1.6
-12.3
6.0
13.0
-9.6
3.9
1.1
6.7

5.3
-4.8
6.1
17.9
6.8
12.8
-12.0
4.6
18.7
4.4
-15.4
9.1
9.9
-10.1
6.7
1.0
3.0

7.0
-6.3
9.7
18.5
10.9
9.4
-12.2
7.9
15.2
4.4
-19.3
13.4
8.1
-10.7
7.3
2.6
3.5

13.4
-7.1
8.7
14.2
11.0
5.5
-11.7
12.8
15.6
2.2
-18.1
15.9
5.3
-8.4
6.1
6.4
0.5

17.2
-9.4
11.3
11.7
4.0
3.0
-13.0
19.8
3.4
5.5
-13.5
19.0
0.
-6.3
6.1
6.4
5.6

14.2
-8.0
20.5
6.4
-0.6
6.1
-11.4
16.6
2.8
7.8
-5.7
18.0
-5.0
-1.6
4.3
5.3
8.1

0.8
-0.8
27.3
6.3
2.6
1.8
-10.9
17.9
-2.7
2.2
-2.3
17 .2
-5.1
0.6
5.4
5.2
9.7

4.2
-2.5
30 .6
4 .2
6.6
0.
-3.2
12.1
7.4
0.5
0.6
9.1
-3.1
-1.6
6.0
8.5
2.0

0.
-1.7
20 .5
7.0
10.7
-4.0
0.
7.5
3.9
-2.6
1.8
1.1
1 .0
-1.6
4.3
9.0
1.9

8.5
-5.7
21 .9
9.8
14.1
-5.7
2.6
8.0
6.8
-2.6
1.2
-3.2
-1.6
3.3
1.6
4.1
4.9

11.0
12.1
3.3
2.0
11.3
1.0
-13.0
-6.2
22.4
0.
-24.2
-4.6
6.1
17.8
8.5
30.1
-19.4

10.9
14.9
-0.8
6.1
12.4
-7.9
-7.9
0.8
21.9
8.1
-29.1
-2.7
7.2
11.5
11.7
46.3
-19.5

10.8
13.8
0.4
9.0
12.7
-8.5
-5.4
6.7
19.9
25.1
-24.0
0.7
7.1
12.6
10.5
6.1
7.3

7.2
14.1
-0.4
10.6
18.3
-5.7
-5.5
7.8
21.6
29.9
-27.0
4.8
11.3
14.7
13.8
-38.1
23.7

4.7
13.9
2.0
6.4
14.8
0.3
2.3
5.0
22.7
21.3
-18.1
5.9
9.8
17.6
7.6
-51.7
34.3

5.2
13.3
0.
2.7
12.3
1.7
5.4
3.4
29.2
9.5
-13.4
2.7
11.5
13.5
10.0
-39.7
8.9

2.8
8.6
-0.4
1.9
5.7
-2.1
9.0
4.6
28.6
8.2
-1.0
3.4
9.3
13.0
18.2
-9.8
7.1

5.1
5.1
-2.8
2.3
6.4
-5.1
0.7
7 .7
17.8
2.6
0.
1.0
14.1
13.5
29.8
12.5
-13.0

5.1
6.3
0.4
3.1
4.6
-10.9
-5.4
8.9
8.4
-1.9
-5.8
0.7
15.4
24.7
34.2
39.1

11.4
7.6
4.1
8.7
4.6
-13.8
-5.4
8.0
6.0
-3.6
-6.4
-3.9
12.8
26.3
18.2
83.1

9.9
8.9
5.3
14.1
3.8
-17.9
-6.9
13.9
10.6
-6.8
-10.0
-1.6
15.3
27.6
5.8
58.6

series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.




Annual

49.4
47.5
52.6
59.2
63.0
67.9
61.8
67.5
73.3
75.2
67.8
74.6
76.6
72.3
76.5
79.6
82.3

46.9
49.1
47.3
56.2
60.6
67.0
65.3
62.2

1948. ..
1949 . . .
1950. . .
1951. . .
1952. . .
1953. . .
1954. . .
1955...
1 9 5 6 . ..
1957. . .
1958. ..
1959. . .
1960.. .
1961. . .
1962. ..
1963. ..
1964. . .

IV Q

48.5
48.1
51.3
59.0
62.6
68 .2
61.5
66.8
72.5
74 .8
68.0
74 .7
76.4
72.7
76.1
78.8
82.9

46.7
49.4
47 .0
55.5
60.8
65.9
65.8
62.5

930-C. CHANGE IN

III Q

49.1
47.6
50.4
58.8
62.3
68.4
61 .8
66.2
72.4
75.7
68.0
73.9
76.7
72.8
75.7
78.2
82.8

46.4
49.6
47.2
54.7
60.4
65.4
66.6
62.0

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977. . .
1978. . .
1979...
1980. . .
1981. . .

II Q

48.9
47.8
49.2
58.6
62.0
67.9
62.3
65.6
72.0
75.1
67.7
73.0
77.2
72.6
75.4
78.0
81.9

46.1
49.5
47.4
53.9
60.4
64.7
67.2
61.9

1948. ..
1949. ..
1950. . .
1951...
1952. . .
1953...
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957. ..
1958. ..
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. ..
1964...

IQ

48.4
48.2
48.3
58.1
62.2
67.9
63.3
64.1
73.0
74.4
68.4
71.8
77.4
72.6
75.1
77.8
81.0

1948. ..
1949. ..
1950...
1951. ..
1952. ..
1953...
1954. . .
1955...

1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975. ..
1976. ..
1977. . .
1978. ..
1979. ..
1980. . .
1981. . .

Oct.

1

2

This series contains revisions beginning with 1980.

(NOVEMBER 1981)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
913.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

COMPOSITE INDEX OF MARGINAL EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS
(1967=100)

III Q

II Q

IV Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949...
1950.. .
1951. . .
1952. . .
1953...
1954...
1955. . .
1956. . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960.. .
1961.. .
1962. . .
1963...
1964.. .

102.6
94.1
96.8
104.3
101.3
104.1
93.5
98.4
99.8
98.6
90.7
97.2
98.6
92.6
96.9
96.4
96.9

101.3
94.4
96.6
104.1
101.5
104.0
93.5
99.4
98.4
98.5
89.8
97.9
97.1
91.9
97.2
96.9
97.6

101.3
92.9
98.1
104.6
101.1
103.8
93.4
100.1
98.7
98.5
89.4
98.9
95.1
94.2
97.8
97.1
97.6

101.4
92.0
99.1
103.6
99.6
103.7
93.0
100.3
99.5
97.3
89.7
99.0
95.1
94.9
98.0
96.7
98.6

100.6
92.4
100.4
102.5
100.8
102.3
93.8
100.6
97.5
96.4
91.3
98.9
95.2
94.9
97.3
97.2
98.3

101.9
93.4
100.9
101.5
100.1
101.9
94.7
99.4
98.2
97.3
92.8
98.1
94.7
95.6
96.9
97.5
98.4

101.5
93.7
102.8
99.8
96.3
100.9
95.3
99.1
97.8
96.7
93.7
97.5
94.4
95.4
97.1
97.6
98.8

100.2
93.5
105.5
98.7
102.6
99.4
94.4
99.5
98.6
95.9
94.4
97.0
93.9
96.5
96.3
96.9
99.4

99.8
95.1
103.8
99.2
104.3
97.4
94.6
100.7
98.7
94.1
94.8
96.8
94.0
94.7
97.0
97.4
98.4

100.0
93.3
103.5
99.3
104.5
96.4
95.9
100.4
100.0
93.2
95.3
94.6
93.2
97.1
96.1
97.6
98.6

99.0
93.5
102.2
100.4
104.2
94.4
97.6
101.0
99.1
92.2
95.9
94.9
92.7
97.4
96.6
97.2
98.6

96.9
97.1
102.2
101.1
103.8
94.4
97.7
100.4
99.3
91.1
95.8
98.9
91.4
97.2
96.3
97.3
99.2

101.7
93.8
97.2
104.3
101.3
104.0
93.5
99.3
99.0
98.5
90.0
98.0
96.9
92.9
97.3
96.8
97.4

101.3
92.6
100.1
102.5
100.2
102.6
93.8
100.1
98.4
97.0
91.3
98.7
95.0
95.1
97.4
97.1
98.4

100.5
94.1
104.0
99.2
101.1
99.2
94.8
99.8
98.4
95.6
94.3
97.1
94.1
95.5
96.8
97.3
98.9

98.6
94.6
102.6
100.3
104.2
95.1
97.1
100.6
99.5
92.2
95.7
96.1
92.4
97.2
96.3
97.4
98.8

100.5
93.8
101.0
101.6
101.7
100.2
94.8
99.9
98.8
95.8
92.8
97.5
94.6
95.2
97.0
97.2
98.4

1965. . .
1966. . .
1967...
1968. . .
1969...
1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975. . .
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

100.0
102.1
101.3
100.0
102.3
99.2
96.5
98.9
101.3
99.0
90.0
97.9
95.9
97.6
98.5
96.3

100.0
102.7
99.4
101.2
101.6
98.3
96.5
99.2
102.4
98.7
89.7
98.1
96.6
97.2
98.4
96.4

100.6
103.8
98.6
101.4
102.3
97.4
96.5
99.5
101.9
98.8
90.1
97.6
98.0
98.3
98.0
94.5

99.7
103.5
98.9
100.4
102.4
96.0
96.7
99.8
101.7
97.9
91.7
96.1
97.3
99.0
94.6
90.3

100.3
103.1
99.5
101.6
102.0
96.3
96.7
99.4
101.3
99.1
91.4
96.5
97.1
98.0
97.3
88.3

100.4
102.5
99.9
101.5
102.0
96.6
97.0
98.7
101.0
98.2
92.5
96.1
97.2
97.8
96.7
89.6

100.2
102.0
99.7
101.3
101.5
97.7
96.9
98.8
100.5
98.1
94.5
96.1
96.7
97.4
96.4
91.7

99.6
102.8
100.3
101.1
101.2
96.3
95.7
100.2
100.3
97.0
94.5
95.5
96.2
97.3
96.0
92.2

100.5
103.0
100.4
101.6
101.4
95.2
95.9
100.3
101.1
96.5
94.3
95.0
97.0
98.5
96.4
92.9

101.1
102.5
100.2
102.1
100.9
94.7
96.9
100.5
101.1
94.9
95.0
95.1
97.4
98.7
96.6
93.6

101.6
101.9
100.8
102.2
100.3
94.9
97.5
101.1
101.0
92.0
95.6
96.1
98.0
98.8
96.1
94.2

102.1
101.0
101.1
102.0
100.4
95.9
98.6
101.1
99.8
91.1
97.0
96.9
98.7
99.1
96.3
94.5

100.2
102.9
99.8
100.9
102.1
98.3
96.5
99.2
101.9
98.8
89.9
97.9
96.8
97.7
98.3
95.7

100.1
103.0
99.4
101.2
102.1
96.3
96.8
99.3
101.3
98.4
91.9
96.2
97.2
98.3
96.2
89.4

100.1
102.6
100.1
101.3
101.4
96.4
96.2
99.8
100.6
97.2
94.4
95.5
96.6
97.7
96.3
92.3

101.6
101.8
100.7
102.1
100.5
95.2
97.7
100.9
100.6
92.7
95.9
96.0
98.0
98.9
96.3
94.1

100.5
102.6
100.0
101.4
101.5
96.5
96.8
99.8
101.1
96.8
93.0
96.4
97.2
98.1
96.8
92.9

914. COMPOSITE INDEX OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT COMMITMENTS
(1967=100)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948. . .
1949...
1950. . .
1951. . .
1952...
1953. . .
1954. . .
1955. . .
1956. . .
1957. . .
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962.. .
1963...
1964. . .

101.5
90.9
94.2
97.8
94.6
97.0
92.6
98.3
97.7
94.7
91.9
97.3
97.2
93.0
95.6
96.7
99.1

100.0
90.3
95.3
96.6
95.9
97.0
92.3
99.8
97.6
94.8
90.6
97.8
96.8
93.5
96.8
96.9
99.5

99.1
89.7
96.1
95.8
95.9
96.4
91.7
99.5
97.4
94.8
91.1
99.5
95.4
93.6
96.2
97.3
98.9

100.5
89.2
97.1
94.7
94.9
96.3
92.4
99.0
97.9
93.9
91.3
98.5
96.2
94.1
96.8
97.3
99.0

98.9
89.4
97.5
96.1
95.0
95.8
92.8
99.0
97.5
94.0
92.6
98.6
96.0
94.1
95.9
98.2
100.1

99.1
89.7
97.9
94.2
96.0
94.0
93.6
99.2
96.9
94.4
93.7
98.0
95.2
94.8
95.8
97.8
99.6

97.4
89.1
99.5
93.8
96.0
94.6
94.3
99.0
" 96.4
93.7
94.3
97.8
95.5
95.2
96.2
97.7
99.4

95.8
90.0
99.1
93.7
96.3
93.8
94.4
98.8
95.9
93.9
95.6
97.4
94.9
95.2
96.3
98.1
99.4

94.6
92.2
96.8
94.9
98.5
93.3
95.3
99.0
95.4
93.0
96.4
97.5
94.7
94.6
96.7
98.8
100.0

94.9
92.2
96.0
93.9
96.9
93.9
96.5
98.3
95.7
93.0
96.3
97.0
94.4
95.4
96.4
98.9
100.0

93.3
93.4
96.1
94.2
96.4
92.7
96.9
98.1
95.7
92.4
97.4
96.8
93.6
96.2
96.8
98.7
100.1

93.4
94.0
97.8
94.5
96.8
92.7
96.9
98.0
95.3
91.8
96.6
97.6
93.5
95.8
97.0
99.3
100.0

100.2
90.3
95.2
96.7
95.5
96.8
92.2
99.2
97.6
94.8
91.2
98.2
96.5
93.4
96.2
97.0
99.2

99.5
89.4
97.5
95.0
95.3
95.4
92.9
99.1
97.4
94.1
92.5
98.4
95.8
94.3
96.2
97.8
99.6

95.9
90.4
98.5
94.1
96.9
93.9
94.7
98.9
95.9
93.5
95.4
97.6
95.0
95.0
96.4
98.2
99.6

93.9
93.2
96.6
94.2
96.7
93.1
96.8
98.1
95.6
92.4
96.8
97.1
93.8
95.8
96.7
99.0
100.0

97.4
90.8
97.0
95.0
96.1
94.8
94.1
98.8
96.6
93.7
94.0
97.8
95.3
94.6
96.4
98.0
99.6

1965. . .
1966. . .
1967...
1968. . .
1969...
1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973. . .
1974.. .
1975...
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981. . .

100.2
101.9
97.3
101.8
107.9
104.5
104.6
109.8
112.1
107.3
98.8
106.4
110.9
115.4
113.9
111.6

99.9
101.7
96.9
103.9
108.3
104.6
104.5
109.6
112.6
107.7
98.2
106.0
111.2
115.9
113.9
109.9

100.2
102.0
97.7
105.3
107.2
103.7
106.2
110.1
112.2
107.9
98.2
106.7
112.0
115.0
115.5
107.8

99.6
101.0
98.1
103.1
108.3
103.7
106.1
110.6
111.2
107.6
100.3
106.0
111.7
114.9
113.6
104.3

99.8
100.3
99.0
102.1
107.2
103.7
107.3
110.8
111.6
107.1
101.3
105.7
112.5
115.0
113.3
103.2

100.3
99.3
100.3
102.8
106.9
103.2
108.3
110.5
111.8
106.1
103.1
107.7
113.3
116.1
113.9
104.5

100.4
99.1
100.4
104.5
106.4
103.0
107.9
111.4
110.8
106.6
104.1
107.8
112.4
115.5
113.6
106.1

100.2
98.0
101.7
105.2
106.6
102.9
108.2
110.9
110.6
105.1
104.3
107.8
114.8
115.4
112.9
107.0

100.4
97.3
101.6
105.6
106.4
103.3
108.3
112.6
109.5
103.6
104.1
109.4
114.6
116.0
114.0
108.8

100.6
96.8
101.6
107.5
106.2
103.5
108.6
112.5
108.8
101.3
103.9
109.8
115.0
117.2
112.7
107.3

101.1
95.9
102.5
106.1
105.2
104.1
109.3
112.0
109.2
100.3
104.2
110.3
115.7
116.1
112.0
108.2

101.5
96.1
102.7
107.2
105.1
105.6
109.9
112.9
107.4
101.7
104.8
110.2
116.6
115.7
112.4
108.3

100.1
101.9
97.3
103.7
107.8
104.3
105.1
109.8
112.3
107.6
98.4
106.4
111.4
115.4
114.4
109.8

99.9
100.2
99.1
102.7
107.5
103.5
107.2
110.6
111.5
106.9
101.6
106.5
112.5
115.3
113.6
104.0

100.3
98.1
101.2
105.1
106.5
103.1
108.1
111.6
110.3
105.1
104.2
108.3
113.9
115.6
113.5
107.3

101.1
96.3
102.3
106.9
105.5
104.4
109.3
112.5
108.5
101.1
104.3
110.1
115.8
116.3
112.4
107.9

100.4
99.1
100.0
104.6
106.8
103.8
107.4
111.1
110.6
105.2
102.1
107.8
113.4
115.7
113.5
107.2

915.

COMPOSITE INDEX OF INVENTORY INVESTMENT AND PURCHASING
(1967=100)

AVE RAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949. . .
1950. . .
1951...
1952. . .
1953. . .
1954. . .
1955. . .
1956. . .
1957. . .
1958. . .
1959...
1960. . .
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963...
1964. . .

93.3
88.9
92.1
102.6
92.9
97.0
89.0
97 .0
97.7
95.4
91.2
97.8
96.2
93.1
98.5
97.4
99.2

92.9
88.5
93.1
102.3
92.6
97.4
89.8
97.6
97.4
94.8
91.1
99.3
94.8
93.4
98.9
98.3
98.9

92.4
88.0
93.8
102.2
93.4
97.6
90.2
99.3
97.1
93.7
91.2
99.8
93.4
94.4
98.5
98.9
99.3

92.6
87.2
95.0
100.1
93.9
96.9
90.9
99.6
97.0
93.2
91.3
100.2
92.8
95.9
96.5
99.4
100.0

92.9
86.4
96.9
98.3
93.3
95.6
91.9
98.9
96.1
93.6
92.2
99.3
93.0
96.8
95.8
99.1
100.2

93.7
85.9
97.8
97.0
95.2
95.3
92.8
98.5
95.4
94.3
93.2
98.3
93.6
97.3
95.4
98.1
99.8

94.2
87.4
101.6
95.8
95.4
95.0
92.5
99.4
95.8
94.7
94.5
97.5
94.2
97.0
96.2
97.4
100.4

93.8
90.5
103.6
94.2
94.8
93.1
92.1
100.1
96.2
94.3
95.6
97.2
94.4
97.6
96.7
97.3
100.6

92.7
92.6
102.0
93.7
95.0
90.7
92.8
100.2
96.7
93.4
96.8
98.0
94.7
97.8
97.2
97.7
102.1

91.4
93.2
101.7
94.4
94.8
88.9
94.3
99.7
97.1
92.3
97.3
97.9
94.2
97.8
97.6
98.1
101.6

90.2
93.3
100.4
93.1
95.2
88.4
95.8
99.1
96.6
90.8
98.1
97.1
93.9
97.7
97.5
98.4
101.7

89.0
91.8
99.8
92.8
95.9
88.6
96.5
98.2
95.9
90.1
97.4
97.2
93.6
98.0
97.2
98.2
101.9

92.9
88.5
93.0
102.4
93.0
97.3
89.7
98.0
97.4
94.6
91.2
99.0
94.8
93.6
98.6
98.2
99.1

93.1
86.5
96.6
98.5
94.1
95.9
91.9
99.0
96.2
93.7
92.2
99.3
93.1
96.7
95.9
98.9
100.0

93.6
90.2
102.4
94.6
95.1
92.9
92.5
99.9
96.2
94.1
95.6
97.6
94.4
97.5
96.7
97.5
101.0

90.2
92.8
100.6
93.4
95.3
88.6
95.5
99.0
96.5
91.1
97.6
97.4
93.9
97.8
97.4
98.2
101.7

92.4
89.5
98.2
97.2
94.4
93.7
92.4
99.0
96.6
93.4
94.2
98.3
94.1
96.4
97.2
98.2
100.5

1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970. . .
1971. . .
1972.. .
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980.. .
1981. . .

102.1
102.9
100.6
101.7
103.1
100.5
100.3
101.6
107.3
110.6
94.3
100.2
102.3
104.8
107.4
102.7

102.2
104.3
100.6
101.8
102.8
100.4
101.2
102.0
108.2
110.5
92.9
101.1
102.7
105.9
108.3
102.1

101.5
105.4
99.3
101.1
102.8
99.9
101.5
102.5
108.9
109.8
92.1
102.0
104.1
106.3
108.8
101.6

101.6
105.0
98.9
100.4
103.4
100.1
101.1
102.2
108.7
109.0
93.2
102.9
105.0
106.9
107.8
100.3

101.6
104.1
98.3
100.5
103.5
101.4
100.5
102.3
108.9
107.6
94.5
103.8
104.7
107.2
107.3
98.8

101.3
103.6
98.7
100.5
103.7
101.2
99.6
102.7
108.9
105.8
95.9
104.5
103.8
106.9
106.6
97.7

101.3
103.5
99.4
100.5
103.7
99.6
99.2
102.9
108.9
104.7
97.3
104.3
103.0
105.2
106.1
98.5

101.3
103.3
100.5
99.8
103.7
99.2
99.1
103.8
108.6
104.1
98.4
104.2
103.3
105.8
105.7
99.5

100.8
102.2
100.5
100.6
103.8
99.4
99.5
104.8
108.5
102.0
100.0
103.2
103.8
105.8
104.6
101.5

100.7
101.8
100.5
101.8
103.5
98.5
100.4
105.9
109.0
100.2
100.8
102.3
104.3
106.1
103.3
103.1

101.4
101.6
100.8
103.0
102.3
98.3
100.7
106.2
110.3
98.1
100.4
103.2
103.8
106.2
102.3
103.4

102.3
101.2
101.7
102.8
101.7
99.3
101.1
106.6
110.5
95.9
99.6
103.3
104.3
106.7
102.3
103.2

101.9
104.2
100.2
101.5
102.9
100.3
101.0
102.0
108.1
110.3
93.1
101.1
103.0
105.7
108.2
102.1

101.5
104.2
98.6
100.5
103.5
100.9
100.4
102.4
108.8
107.5
94.5
103.7
104.5
107.0
107.2
98.9

101.1
103.0
100.1
100.3
103.7
99.4
99.3
103.8
108.7
103.6
98.6
103.9
103.4
105.6
105.5
99.8

101.5
101.5
101.0
102.5
102.5
98.7
100.7
106.2
109.9
98.1
100.3
102.9
104.1
106.3
102.6
103.2

101.5
103.2
100.0
101.2
103.2
99.8
100.4
103.6
108.9
104.9
96.6
102.9
103.8
106.2
105.9
101.0

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




102

(NOVEMBER 1981)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.
916.

June

My
a

July

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

72.1
70.3
76.0
76.6
74.9
69.4
78.6
84.5
81.0

84.6
85.7
81.3
89.3
89.9
94.1
97.6

71.1
71.8
75.0
76.5
74.2
71.9
75.5
85.1
81.6
80.6
79.7
85.8
82.7
86.3
87.7
93.1
97.4

83.6
85.2
81.3
88.5
89.3
93.6
97.2

71.0
70.9
73.9
75.3
74.8
72.3
74.7
83.9
81.8
80.1
78.9
86.2
83.3
85.5
88.6
92.2
96.7

103.2
99.6
100.8
100.1
91.9
87.7
92.9
99.6
92.5
78.0
91.3
93.5
94.0
94.1
90.3
92.2

103.0
99.1
100.7
99.9
90.5
89.4
94.3
99.1
90.1
78.2
92.3
94.3
92.7
93.5
90.6
93.0

99.8
102.5
99.2
99.4
98.5
89.0
91.8
95.8
97.3
87.7
82.3
95.6
94.6
90.2
92.5
90.7

100.7
101.1
99.6
101.2
97.4
87.9
93.2
96.8
94.0
84.1
88.4
95.0
95.7
93.3
91.9
89.0

101.5
99.1
100.4
100.9
94.7
88.0
93.5
97.7
92.9
78.2
91.9
94.9
96.8
95.0
91.8
91.1

103.0
99.1
100.8
100.1
91.8
88.4
93.6
99.0
92.0
77.8
91.8
93.9
93.9
94.2
90.6
92.3

101.2
100.5
100.0
100.4
95.6
88.3
93.0
97.3
94.1
81.9
88.6
94.8
95.2
93.2
91.7
90.8

72.1
70.2
74.2
74.7
74.3
72.6
74.1
84.4
81.5

71.4
71 .4
74.0
75.6
74.3
72.6
74.8
85.1
81.9

70.7
72.5
75.3
76.8
74.0
72.4
75.4
84.9
81.7

71.2
71.6
75.8
77.0
74.2
70.7
76.3
85.2
81.2

72.2
70.8
76 .4
76.9
74.4
69.8
77.3
84.3
81.0

72.3
69.9
76.5
76.5
75.1
68 .8
78.5
84.9
80.8

71.8
70.3
75 .2
76.4
75.3
69.6
80.1
84.2
81.2

81.0
75.0
85.8
85.7
82.0
90.0
90.0
95.8

80.9
76.1
87.7
84.2
84.3
89.0
91.4
96.5

81.1
76.9
88.6
83.4
85.2
87.7
92.1
96.7

81.2
77.7
87.4
83.6
85.3
86.4
92.4
96.8

81.4
78.6
86.8
83.0
85.6
87.1
92.5
97.5

79.6
85.6
82.9
86.4
87.8
93.2
97.4

80.9
85.0
82.1
86.9
88.2
93.5
97.3

82.4
84.9
81.3
87.6
88.3
93.4
97.1

83.8
84.9
81.2
88.7
89.7
93.3
96.9

100.2
102.7
99.1
98.9
98.6
88.4
92.1
95.9
97.2
87.2
82.3
96.3
94.4
89.4
92.2
91.6

100.3
101.8
99.3
99.1
97.9
88.9
92.6
96.4
96.2
86.9
84.4
95.8
94.9
90.4
92.2
89.6

100.6
102.0
99.5
100.6
97.8
88.8
93.2
96.7
95.0
85.4
86.2
95.4
95.1
92.1
92.3
88.7

100.9
100.9
99.7
101.4
97.9
87.5
93.2
96.7
93.8
84.1
88.5
94.8
95.6
93.8
91.7
88.5

100.5
100.4
99.6
101.6
96.6
87.5
93.2
97.0
93.2
82.7
90.4
94.8
96.3
94.1
91.8
89.7

100.8
100.1
100.0
101.3
95.4
87.6
93.4
97.1
93.2
80.2
91.9
95.0
97.0
94.2
91.7
90.6

101.5
98.8
100.4
100.8
94.8
88.0
93.3
97.9
92.7
77.6
92.3
94.8
97.2
95.4
92.0
91.3

102.2
98.5
100.8
100.7
93.8
88.3
93.7
98.0
92.9
76.7
91.6
94.8
96.1
95.4
91.8
91.5

102.8
98.7
101.0
100.4
92.9
88.2
93.5
98.4
93.5
77.3
91.7
93.9
94.9
94.9
90.8
91.8

1957.
. .
1958...
1959. ..
1960.
..
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. ..

81.3
76.0
85.5
85.9
81.7
89.3
90.1
95.1

1965. . .
1966...
1967...
1968.
. .
1969. ..
1970.
..
1971.
..
1972.
..
1973...
1974. ..
1975.
..
1976...
1977.. .
1978.
..
1979...
1980...
1981...

99.0
103.0
99.1
100.1
99.0
89.6
90.7
95.2
98.5
89.0
80.1
94.6
94.5
90.9
93.2
90.9

917.

Annual

71.7
70.3
73.3
74.3
74.4
73.1
73.5
83.9
81.9
81.1
76.9
87.9
83.7
84.9
87.7
92.0
96.7

72.0
70.2
73.3
74.2
74.3
73.2
73.6
83.8
81.7

69.1
70.8
71.0
73.3
75.4
74.7
71.4
82.7
82.3

IV Q

69.1
71.0
71.1
73.8
75.6
74.7
71.3
82.3
82.7
81.1
75.6
86.0
85.5
82.3
89.7
90.2
95.7

71.0
70.5
72.4
73.9
74 .7
73.5
72.8
83.6
82.5

68.6
71.6
70.6
74.5
76.2
75.1
70.5
81.3
83.1

III Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(1967=100)

69.7
70.7
71.6
73.5
75.1
74.4
72.0
82.9
82.7
80.9
75.7
86.8
84.8
83.2
89.7
90.4
96.2

1948. ..
1949.. .
1950.
. .
1951...
1952.
. .
1953. . .
1954...
1955...
1956. ..

II Q

COMPOSITE INDEX OF PROFITABILITY

COMPOSITE INDEX OF MONEY W D FINANCIAL FLOWS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(1967=100)
1948...
1949...
1950. ..
1951...
1952.
..
1953...
1954.
. .
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

57.3
54.4
57.4
54.7
58.1
59.9
57.5
64.1
66.6
65.0
61.8
70.8
68.3
68.1
75.3
79.3
83.2

57.5
54.5
57.7
53.1
58.7
59.9
58 .0
64.7
66.2
65.3
62.6
71.0
69.0
68.7
75.5
80.1
83.7

57.9
54.8
58.0
52.8
58.9
60.2
58.4
64.7
65.9
65.6
63.0
71.1
68.8
69.3
76.0
80.5
84.1

55.5
55.3
58.9
52.8
58.4
60.5
58.5
64.9
65.3
65.4
63.6
71.5
68.2
70.1
76.6
81.2
84.6

54.1
56.0
59.2
53.4
58.1
60.5
59.0
65.6
64.2
65.1
64.1
72.0
67.2
70.9
76.6
81.8
85.3

53.7
56.0
59.1
54.3
58.0
59.9
59.6
66.6
64.0
64.2
64.6
72.0
66.8
71.9
76 .7
82.1
85.8

53.4
56.6
58.4
55.3
58.0
59.4
60.6
67.5
63.9
63.9
64.9
72.2
67.3
72.6
76.9
82.1
86.3

53.8
56.3
57.6
56.1
58.5
59.0
61.5
67.6
63.9
63.9
65.5
71.6
68.0
73.0
77.1
82.1
86.6

54.4
55.8
56.6
56.4
59.3
58.3
62.0
67.4
64.3
63.5
66.8
70.3
68.7
72.8
77.1
82.5
87.1

54.4
56.1
56.0
56.5
59.6
57.4
62.9
67.6
64.4
63.0
68.1
68.5
68.7
73.3
76.9
82.8
87.9

54.5
56.0
55.9
57.1
60.2
56.7
63.3
67.4
64.7
62.2
69.4
67.3
68.5
74.3
76.9
83.3
88.5

54.6
56.7
55.4
57.4
60.0
57.0
63.6
67.1
64.7
62.1
69.9
67.6
68.2
74.7
77.9
83.0
88.8

57.6
54.6
57.7
53.5
58.6
60.0
58.0
64.5
66.2
65.3
62.5
71.0
68.7
68.7
75.6
80.0
83.7

54.4
55.8
59.1
53.5
58.2
60.3
59.0
65.7
64.5
64.9
64.1
71.8
67.4
71.0
76.6
81.7
85.2

5 .9
56.2
57.5
55.9
58.6
58.9
61.4
67.5
64.0
63.8
65.7
71.4
68 .0
72.8
77.0
82.2
86.7

54.5
56.3
55.8
57.0
59.9
57.0
63.3
67.4
64.6
62.4
69.1
67.8
68.5
74.1
77 .2
83.0
88.4

55.1
55.7
57.5
55.0
58.8
59.1
60.4
66.3
64.8
64.1
65.4
70.5
68.1
71.6
76.6
81.7
86.0

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977.
..
1978...
1979...
1980. ..
1981. . .

89.1
95.7
93.1
103.0
111.1
102.3
111.4
123.3
138.8
134.6
118.4
130.7
141.2
148.5
148.6
137.2

90.0
95.4
95.5
103.2
110.5
101.5
114.3
125.7
138.7
134.9
117.9
132.0
142.2
148.0
145.6
138.7

90.4
95.5
97.0
103.7
109.4
102.1
116.4
127.0
137.7
134.2
119.1
132.0
143.3
147.4
144.5
136.4

90.5
96.2
97.5
104.2
108.8
103.1
117.5
127.2
136.4
133.7
118.9
133.0
143.3
147.5

90.6
96.7
98.6
104.8
108.4
103.3
118.3
127.1
136.2
132.7
119.6
133.7
142.2
147.8
146 .9
126.4

91.5
95.8
100.0
105.5
106.8
103.0
119.5
128.0
136.7
131.7
123.5
134.5
142.5
148.5
148 .4
128.9

92.5
94.1
101.6
106.2
104.6
103.1
120.7
129.1
136.8
130.2
125.8
135.4
144.8
148.9
148.6
133.5

93.2
92.1
102.5
107.5
103.0
104.9
121.3
130.3
134.9
127.9
127.5
135.9
146.9
149.1
148.3
137.4

93.5
91.6
103.0
108.5
103.0
106.7
120.6
131.9
134.2
125.4
127.1
136.5
148.2
149.9
146.2
139.0

94.2
90.9
103.7
109.3
103.5
107.8
120.2
133.5
133.4
123.9
126.8
137.9
148.8
150.6
143.9
139.4

94.7
90.4
103.9
110.2
103.7
108 .0
119.8
134.8
132.8
122.0
128.4
139.3
148.8
151.1
140.4
139.9

95.2
91.8
103.5
111.1
102.8
109.2
121.0
137.0
133.4
119.6
129.3
140.4
148.5
150.2
138.3
138.8

89.8
95.5
95.2
103.3
110.3
102.0
114.0
125.3
138.4
134.6
118.5
131.6
142.2
148.0
146.2
137.4

90.9
96.2
98.7
104.8
108.0
103.1
118.4
127.4
136.4
132.7
120.7
133.7
142.7
147.9
147.1
129.0

93.1
92.6
102.4
107.4
103.5
104.9
120.9
130.4
135.3
127.8
126.8
135.9
146.6
149.3
147.7
136.6

94.7
91.0
103.7
110.2
103.3
108.3
120.3
135.1
133.2
121.8
128.2
139.2
148.7
150.6
140.9
139.4

92.1
93.8
100.0
106.4
106.3
104.6
118.4
129.6
135.8
129.2
123.5
135.1
145.1
149.0
145.5
135.6

146.1
131.8

940. RATIO, COINCIDENT: COMPOSITE INDEX TO LAGGING COMPOSITE
(1967=100

98 .6
106.8
103.2
96.9
96.9
90 .8
103 .7
97.9
93.8
85.4
101.2
93.5
91.5
99.9
99.6
99.8

108.2
97.7
110.0
100.2
93.8
96.0
92.9
103.1
95.3
93.1
90.4
100.3
91.0
95.2
98 .7
99.7
100.4

106.4
97.3
113.7
98.8
92.4
95.6
93.2
103.6
90.5
93.0
92.7
98.1
90.8
96.0
98.9
99.1
101.4

105.5
99.2
115.0
98.5
96.8
94.4
94.7
101.1
94.9
92.1
94.5
93.7
90.5
97.0
98.8
99.1
101.0

104.9
101.1
110.9
97.6
99.0
92.7
96.0
101.1
95.3
90.6
95.0
92.2
90.7
96.7
98.4
99.4
100.6

106.4
95.6
109.4
97.8
99.8
92.5
96.9
101.0
96.1
90.8
95.6
90.9
90.7
98.1
98.2
99.4
99.3

103.8
98.7
106.3
97.8
99.8
91.3
98.2
100.6
95.0
88.8
98.1
91.8
89.4
100.0
98.2
98.0
101.8

103.5
100.2
108.3
96.8
99.2
90.0
99.4
101.3
95.8
87.2
96.9
96.0
87.8
100.3
97 .8
98.4
102.5

108.4
99.6
102.8
105.4
96.8
98.5
90.2
101.0
99.6
95.3
86.4
99.5
95.3
89.0
99.5
98.3
99.2

107.5
98.0
108.2
101.7
95.5
96.4
91.8
103.7
96.4
93.4
87.8
100.9
92.2
93.2
99.4
99.7
100.3

105.6
99.2
113.2
98.3
96.1
94.2
94.6
101.9
93.6
91.9
94.1
94.7
90.7
96.6
98.7
99.2
101.0

104.6
98.2
108.0
97.5
99.6
91.3
98 .2
101.0
95.6
88.9
96.9
92.9
89.3
99.5
98.1
98.6
101.2

106.5
98.7
108 .0
100.7
97.0
95.1
93.7
101.9
96.3
92.4
91.3
97.0
91.9
94.6
98.9
99.0
100.4

101.5
102.2
99.5
101.9
99.1
95.2
102.3
110.2
107.1
93.4
87.3
103.9
106.3
101.1
89 .1
71.6

101.5
101.7
99.2
101.3
98.4
95.0
102.4
110.0
106.2
91.1
89 .4
103.5
106.1
99.6
89.6
75.2

102.0
101.6
99.1
101.6
96.9
94.2
103.5
109.1
104.5
90.5
93.3
102.9
105.0
98.7
88.6
81.1

102.8
100.8
99.3
102.3
96 .9
94.5
102.1
109.9
102.7
89.2
93.8
103.0
105.2
97.9
88.2
83.4

102.3
100.1
100.5
101.9
96.9
93.9
100.8
111.0
99.8
88.4
95.3
103.6
104.3
97.9
87.1
84.5

103.2
100.2
100.4
102.0
96.5
94.3
101.6
110.5
98.7
87.6
96.2
102.6
103.8
96.6
84.9
84.1

103.6
100.5
100.8
102.8
96.2
93.2
102.4

103.7
99.3
102.0
102.8
95.5
93.5
103.9
112.0
99.8
85.4
98 .2
104.5
102.7
94.5
81.0
80.2

103.7
99.1
102.2
101.6
95.1
96.6
105.1
112.4
98.1
82.9
99.0
106.0
103.0
93.8
81.6
74.0

101.9
103.4
99.1
102.1
100.5
93.6
100.2
109.1
110.2
96.3
83.5
102.0
105.7
99.7
92.0
79.2

101.7
101.8
99.3
101.6
98.1
94.8
102.7
109.8
105.9
91.7
90.0
103.4
105.8
99.8
89.1
76.0

102.8
100.4
100.1
102.1
96.8
94.2
101.5
110.5
100.4
88.4
95.1
103.1
104.4
97.5
86.7
84.0

103.7
99.6
101.7
102.4
95.6
94.4
103.8
111.9
99.1
85.0
97.8
104.4
103.0
95.0
81.7
79.0

102.5
101.3
100.0
102.0
97.7
94.3
102.1
110.3
103.9
90.4
91.6
103.2
104.8
98.0
87.4
79.6

108.9
100 .6
101.7
107.1
96.0
98.6
89.6
100.3
100.4
94.6
86.9
98.7
97 .2
88.6
98.6
97.9
99.1

108.0
99 .4
101.5
105.1
97.5
98.3
90 .4
100.8
99 .9
95.8
86.5
99.4
95.2
88.5
99.9
98.4
99.4

108.4

107.0

98.8
105.1
104.0
96.9
98.5
90.6
101.9
98.4
95.4
85.7
100 .4
93.4
89.9
99.9
98.7
99.0

1965. ..
1966...
1967. ..
1968.
. .
1969.. .
1970...
1971. ..
1972...
1973. . .
1974...
1975. ..
1976. ..
1977...
1978.
..
1979. ..
1980.
..
1981.
..

101.9
103.8
99.4
102.0
100.6
93.5
99.6
108.0
110.9
96.1
82.1
100.7
105.1
99.9
92.0
81.9

101.9
103.2
99.1
102.0
100.6
93.4
99.9
109.2
110.4
96.4
83.7
102.2
105.5
99.3
91.4
80.3

101.9
103.2
98.7
102.4
100.2
93.9
101.1
110.0
109.3
96.5
84 .8
103.1
106.6
99.8
92.6
75.5

These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

107.4
97.6
107.9
101.6
95.9
96.4
91.6
104 .3
95.9
93.3
87.7
101.3
92.1
93.0
99.6
99.7
100.6

1948...
1949. ..
1950. . .
1951.
. .
1952.
..
1953...
1954. . .
1955.
..
1956...
1957.
..
1958. . .
1959. ..
I960...
1961...
1962. ..
1963.. .
1964.
..

NOTE:

INDEX

111.4
99.5
86.8
96.1
102.8
103.4
96.6
82.5
82.9

(NOVEMBER 1981)

103

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan. Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO, MANUFACTURING, IN 1972 DOLLARS
(RATIO)

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948.
. .
1949. . .
1950

1953.

. .

1956. .
1958.
1959.
1960
1961.
1962.
1963.

. .
. .
. .
. .
. .

1966. . .
1967.
..
1968...
1969...
1970. ..
1971.
..
1972.
..
1973.. .
1974...
1975. ..
1976...
1977. ..
1978. ..
1979. ..
1980.
. .
1981.
..

1.86
1.84
1.87
1.99
2.08
1.90
1.74
1.80
2.10
1.95
1.88
1.88
1.82
1.91

1.88
1.87
1.88
2.01
2.05
1.90
1.74
1.83
2.11
1.93
1.87
1.84
1.83
1.92

1.87
1.86
1.88
2.04
2.02
1.88
1.75
1.83
2.15
1.91
1.83
1.84
1.79
1.99

1.89
1.87
1.89
2.08
2.02
1.86
1.76
1.84
2.08
1.91
1.85
1.78
1.89
2.07

1.89
1.86
1.92
2.05
2.01
1.86
1.76
1.83
2.11
1.90
1.86
1.82
1.81
2.11

1.90
1.86
1.91
2.04
1.98
1.85
1.77
1.85
2.07
1.90
1.84
1.81
1.87
2.10

1.91
1.84
1.89
2.06
1.99
1.86
1.76
1.86
2.03
1.90
1.86
1.83
1.85
2.06

1.88
1.92
1.91
2.08
2.02
1.84
1.79
1.89
2.00
1.90
1.85
1.80
1.88
2.07

1.91
1.89
1.91
2.08
2.01
1.83
1.81
1.90
1.99
1.93
1.84
1.82
1.90
1.98

1.94
1.86
1.90
2.16
2.01
1.81
1.79
1.90
1.98
1.96
1.84
1.80
1.90
1.94

1.89
1.87
1.94
2.22
1.98
1.77
1.76
1.96
1.99
1.91
1.85
1.80
1.94
1.95

1.84
1.89
1.96
2.10
1.94
1.76
1.81
2.09
1.96
1.88
1.'82
1.80
1.93
1.95

1.87
1.86
1.88
2.01
2.05
1.89
1.74
1.82
2.12
1.93
1.86
1.85
1.81
1.94

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO, MERCHANT WHOLESALERS, IN 1972 DOLLARS
(RATIO)

1.89
1.86
1.91
2.06
2.00
1.86
1.76
1.84
2.09
1.90
1.85
1.80
1.86
2.09

1.90
1.88
1.90
2.07
2.01
1.84
1.79
1.88
2.01
1.91
1.85
1.82
1.88
2.04

1.89
1.87
1.93
2.16
1.98
1.78
1.79
1.98
1.98
1.92
1.84
1.80
1.92
1.95

1.89
1.87
1.90
2.08
2.01
1.84
1.77
1.88
2.05
1.92
1.85
1.82
1.87
2.00

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948. . .
1950.
..
1951. . .

1959. . .
1961. . .
1963. . .

1965. . .
1967.
..
1968. ..
1969. ..
1970. ..
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. ..
1975. ..
1976. . .
1977.
..
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981.
..

1.17
1.19
1.20
1.19
1.22
1.18
1.17
1.15
1.34
1.39
1.34
1.38
1.41
1.36

1.19
1.20
1.22
1.19
1.23
1.23
1.17
1.16
1.32
1.38
1.34
1.38
1.42
1.37

1.20
1.20
1.19
1.20
1.23
1.20
1.16
1.15
1.36
1.38
1.37
1.41
1.39
1.39

1.19
1.21
1.17
1.22
1.23
1.21
1.16
1.15
1.37
1.38
1.36
1.39
1.40
1.42

1.19
1.22
1.18
1.21
1.21
1.21
1.17
1.18
1.36
1.41
1.35
1.36
1.39
1.44

L.19
L.20
L.19
L.21
L.20
L.21
L.20
L.21
L.34
L.41
L.34

1.39
1.38
1.42

1.19
1.20
1.19
1.21
1.22
1.21
1.15
1.21
1.33
1.40
1.34
1.38
1.38
1.41

1.20
1.19
1.17
1.21
1.22
1.19
1.20
1.24
1.34
1.42
1.36
1.38
1.40
1.45

1.21
1.18
1.17
1.23
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.25
1.33
1.41
1.39
1.38
1.40
1.41

1.20
1.20
1.16
1.24
1.23
1.18
1.16
1.32
1.32
1.42
1.38
1.38
1.39
1.39

1.18
1.18
1.17
1.24
1.21
1.17
1.14
1.33
1.31
1.41
1.37
1.38
1.39
1.40

1.20
1.17
1.18
1.24
1.21
1.17
1.15
1.34
1.29
1.40
1.36
1.40
1.38
1.36

1.19
1.20
1.20
1.19
1.23
1.20
1.17
1.15
1.34
1.38
1.35
1.39
1.41
1.37

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO, RETAIL TRADE, IN 1972 DOLLARS
(RATIO)
1948.

1.20
1.19
1.18
1.22
1.21
1.20
1.18
1.23
1.33
1.41
1.36
1.38
1.39
1.42

1.19
1.18
1.17
1.24
1.22
1.17
1.15
1.33
1.31
1.41
1.37
1.39
1.39
1.38

1.19
1.20
1.18
1.22
1.22
1.20
1.17
1.22
1.33
1.40
1.36
1.38
1.39
1.40

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

. .

1950.
1951.

1.19
1.21
1.18
1.21
1.21
1.21
1.18
1.18
1.36
1.40
1.35
1.38
1.39
1.43

. .
. .

1962...

1967...
1968.
..
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972.
..
1973...
1974...
1975. ..
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. ..
1980.
..
1981...
NOTE:

1.43
1.41
1.38
1.41
1.36
1.41
1.32
1.47
1.44
1.34
1.36
1.42
1.42
1.37

1.46
1.40
1.38
1.40
1.37
1.41
1.32
1.47
1.39
1.36
1.34
1.40
1.42
1.39

1.43
1.39
1.39
1.41
1.39
1.38
1.36
1.44
1.39
1.36
1.35
1.40
1.44
1.47

1.43
1.40
1.38
1.38
1.40
1.38
1.37
1.45
1.34
1.38
1.36
1.41
1.45
1.48

1.41
1.37
1.40
1.39
1.39
1.38
1.38
1.44
1.34
1.36
1.38
1.41
1.48
1.46

These series are shown in this appendix for the first time.




104

1.45
1.37
1.40
1.41
1.39
1.39
1.33
1.46
1.41
1.37
1.35
1.41
1.41
1.43

1.42
1.37
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.36
1.39
1.43
1.34
1.36
1.37
1.42
1.50
1.44

1.43
1.36
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.36
1.41
1.40
1.35
1.36
1.38
1.42
1.46
1.43

1.41
1.39
1.42
1.40
1.41
1.36
1.39
1.45
1.35
1.39
1.39
1.42
1.41
1.43

1.41
1.39
1.43
1.38
1.40
1.35
1.40
1.49
1.37
1.37
1.37
1.42
1.46
1.45

1.41
1.37
1.43
1.40
1.38
1.37
1.43
1.51
1.34
1.36
1.37
1.41
1.44
1.42

Current data for these series are shown on page 105.

1.37
1.37
1.42
1.37
1.39
1.32
1.47
1.51
1.32
1.34
1.38
1.39

1.40
1.41

1.45
1.39
1.39
1.41
1.37
1.40
1.32
1.47
1.41
1.36
1.35
1.41
1.42
1.40

1.42
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.38
1.37
1.44
1.36
1.37
1.36
1.41
1.46
1.47

1.42
1.37
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.36
1.40
1.43
1.35
1.37
1.38
1.42
1.46
1.43

1.40
1.38
1.43
1.38
1.39
1.35
1.43
1.50
1.34
1.36
1.37
1.41
1.43
1.43

1.42
1.38
1.40
1.40
1.39
1.37
1.38
1.46
1.36
1.36
1.37
1.41
1.44
1.43

(NOVEMBER 1981)

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

(D«C.) (Nov.)
P
T

Year
and

quarter

Implicit pricedeflator, gross
nonfarm business
product 1
(Index: 1977=100)

Unit labor cost,
a l l persons, nonfarm
business sector 1

(Nov.)
P

(M«r.)
T

I I I ITT TIT 111 ii f n

(Jan.) (July)
P T

11111111111 ITT JTT ITT

Components of BCD series 26—

Ratio scale
150
140
130

(Index: 1977=100)

120

1979

110

115.4
118.7
121.5
124.4

112.6
115.1
117.4
119.7

I Q....
I I Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q . . .

Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm
business product, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)

100

90
150

1980

140

1981

139.1
r!41.9
p!45.7

135.3
N37.5
p!41.1

I Q....
I I Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q . . .

130

127.4
131.8
133.6
136.8

122.9
126.3
128.8
131.9

I Q....
I I Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q . . .

120
110

Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)

100

90
80
70

Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars
Year
and
month

Manufacturing
(Ratio)

Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)

2

Retail trade

Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)

i

i

Arithmetic
scale

i

Manufacturing

(Ratio)

2.2

2.1

1980
Jan....
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

1.91
1.92
1.99
2.07
2.11
2.10

1.36
1.37
1.39
1.42
1.44
1.42

1.37
1.39
1.43
1.47
1.48
1.46

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..

2.06
2.07
1.98
1.94
1.95
1.95

1.41
1.45
1.41
1.39
1.40
1.36

1.44
1.43
1.43
1.45
1.42
1.41

2.0

1.9

1.8

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..

1.5
1.4

1981
Jan....
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

1.7

1.97
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.98
1.93

1.33
1.32
1.35
1.36
1.38
1.41

1.38
1.36
1.36
1.39
1.40
1.41

1.97
r l .99
p2.00
(NA)

1.38
rl.43
pi.41
(NA)

1.45
rl.42
pi.43
(NA)

1.3
1.2
1.5
1.4

1.3

I I I 111 i n M1111111
i l l III M i l I I I
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
NOTE: The " r 1 indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available.
'Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s .
2

f Commerce, B
f Economic Analysis.
Al
Source: U.S. Dt
Department of C
Bureau of E i




105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing1
(per 100 employees)
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. do!.) .
92. Change in sensitive crude materials
prices, smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2
(percent)
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total,
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
(million dollars)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income (percent)
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

Sept.
to
Oct.
1981

Sept.
1981

Aug.
1981

July
1981

Net contribution to index
Oct.
1981

July
to
Aug.
1981

Aug.
to
Sept.
1981

0.0

-0.64

0.10

40.0

40.0

r39.3

P39.4

1.0

1.4

1.7

p2.3

-0.43

-0.33

-0.72

35.67

34.16

r33.98

p31.68

-0.24

-0.03

-0.44

46

48

43

38

0.08

-0.19

-0.21

N
A

NA

N
A

rll3.4

N
A

N
A

N
A

14.00

rl3.92

rl3.68

pl2.95

-0.01

-0.04

-0.15

73.7

69.9

68.7

58.3

-0.17

-0.06

-0.58

rl0.99

rll.22

p8.24

0.02

-0.20

r0.64

0.10

r0.04

0.15

-0.25

-0.03

0.06

129.13

129.63

118.27

119.80

0.03

-0.61

0.09

r0.80

re0.86

re 0.8 8

e0.82

0.21

0.07

-0.23

806.3

807.4

r802.5

P805.7

0.06

-0.26

0.18

rl34.1

rl33.3

rl30.4

pl28.1

-0.60

-2.18

-1.76

91,880

r91,901

r91,948

p91,743

0.02

0.04

-0.23

rl,068.4

rl,075.7

rl,074.8

pi,075.8

0.34

-0.04

0.06

rl53.9

rl53.6

rl51.8

pl49.5

-0.05

-0.32

-0.54

rl57,409

rl56,180

pl56,575

-0.17

0.06

142.6

rl42.6

rl42.0

pl40.7

13.9

14.5

13.7

13.7

-0.26

0.35

r266.51

r267.H

p268.21

NA

0.11

0.19

r209.1

r210.8

•r213.5

p215.5

0.25

0.40

0.44

20.39

20.50

20.08

18.45

0.21

-0.82

-4.75

183,199

rl85,729

rl88,405

pl90,086

0.30

0.32

0.29

13.23

rl3.21

P13.23

-0.07

0.07

rl92.8

rl93.5

rl94.2

0.36

0.36

N
A

N
A

N
A
pl86.2

0.0

-0.42

N
A

N
A
-0.92

0.0
N
A

N
A
-4.12

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the March 1979 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 106107) for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
x
This
2
This
3

series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.099; for the coincident index, -0.164; for the lagging index, -0.170.




106

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
1 1 1 11 1 11 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 F T i r i i i i i i T i i i i i i i i i
1 11 11

Actual
data
(percent)

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

receiving slower deliveries
5
6
7
8
+ 90

+ 80

+ 70

+ 60

CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR

56
52
48
46

13
14
15

48
43
38

8/81
9/81
10/81

• 90

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
AND
FROM ACTUAL
6/80
DATA YEAR
TROUGH

4

+ 50

45
47
46
50

11/80
12/80
1/81
2/81

+40

9
10
11
12

24
28
24
20

52
56
52
48

3/81
4/81
5/81
6/81

+30

13
14
15
16

18
20
15
10

46
48
43
38

7/81
8/81
9/81
10/81

i

• 70

• 60
|
|
• 50

• 40
'

• 30

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
SERIES
43
PERCENT

43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)

• 80

SERIES
32
PERCENT
REPORTING
44
16
10/80
17
19
18
22

43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)

5
6
7
8

7.4
7.4
7.3
7.3

12/80
1/81
2/81
3/81

9
10
11
12

7.3
7.6
7.3
7.0

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

13
14
15

Actual

companies receiving slower deliveries

Actual
data
fr
o
current
cycle

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

5
6
7
8

-» +20

32. Vendor performance, percent of

SERIES 32
PERCENT
REPORTING
47
12/80
46 1/81
50 2/81
52 3/81

9
10
11
12

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

7.2
7.5
8.0

8/81
9/81
10/81

• 4

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
10/80
DATA YEAR

-

- 2

-

- 1

SERIES 43
PERCENT
0

0. T

1

-12

1MM

-6

.IMM.I.MMI.MMI.

0 +6 +12 +18

10/80

-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3

7-i5
7.4
7.4
7.3

11/80
12/80
1/81
2/81

5
6
7
8

1975

7.6

1
2
3
4

-0.3
-0.3
0.
-0.3

7.3
7.3
7.6
7.3

3/81
4/81
5/81
6/81

9
10
11
12

-0.6
-0.4
-0.1
0.4

7.0
7.2
7.5
8.0

7/81
8/81
9/81
10/81

+24

Months from reference troughs

NOTE:

• 7

o
• 8

-»

+1

ii 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
111111111111
-12

- 6

0

+ 6 +12

+18

+24

Months from specific troughs

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts on p. 106 of the July 1981 issue.




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
|

Actual
data
for

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

29. New building permits, private housing
units

current
cycle

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
REF.
FROM
TROUGH
1/80
DATA
YEAR
SERIES 29
1967=100

Deviations
from

29. New building permits, private housing
units

specific
troughs

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Percent
5
6
7
8
Percent

-4.1
-6.7
-10.6
-11.5

100.9
98.1
94.1
93.1

12/80
1/81
2/81
3/81

9
10
11
12

-8.9
-10.4
-26.0
-29.9

95.8
94.3
77.8
73.7

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

13
14
15

+ 50

-33.6
-34.7
-44.6

69.9
68.7
58.3

-1+140

8/81
9/81
10/81

• 150

+120
• 140

+100

• 135

+ 25

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
FROM
SPEC.
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
4/80

• 130

+ 80

SERIES
29
1967=100
0

•105

• 90

-25
• 75

• 60

-50

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments

7
8

65.6
51.5

110.3
100.9

11/80
12/80

9
10
11
12

47.3
41.3
39.8
43.8

98.1
94.1
93.1
95.8

1/81
2/81
3/81
4/81

13
14
15
16

41.6
16.8
10.7
5.0

94.3
77.8
73.7
69.9

5/81
6/81
7/81
8/81

17
18

3.2
-12.5

68.7
58.3

9/81
10/81

178

+ 2 «176

+1

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
REF.
YEAR
1/80
DATA
TROUGH

5
6
7
8

SERIES 48
ANN. RATE
BIL. HOURS
171.12
12/80
-0.8
172.87
1/81
0.2
171.65
2/81
-0.5
172.14
3/81
-0.2

9
10
11
12

-1
• 170

-2

-1.1
-0.6
-0.9
-0.8

170.56
171.43
170.92
171.09

-0.7
-2.7
-1.3

171.29
167.76
170.18

-3
• 166

-4
-5

I.....I....,I.....I
+6

+12 +18

#164

18
0

• 60

-20

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments

• 180

• 178

5
6
7
8

SERIES
48
ANN. RATE
B I L . HOURS
2.4
171.12
12/80
3.5
172.87
1/81
2.8
171.65
2/81
3.1
172.14
3/81

9
10
11
12

2.1
2.6
2.3
2.4

170.56
171.43
170.92
171.09

13
14
15

2.5
0.4
1.9

171.29
167.76
170.18

8/81
9/81
10/81

• 170

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

+24

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1981 issue.




+ 20 #80

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/80
DATA
YEAR

Months from reference troughs

NOTE:

• 90

8/81
9/81
10/81

• 168

0

+ 40

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

13
14
15

-6

• 100

Percent

+3

-12

•no
+ 60

• 70

+4

I

• 160

• 168

-»

Inmliiii
-12

-6

+ 6

+12 +18

Months from specific troughs

+24

0

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
1/80

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

73. Industrial production, durable
manufactures

SERIES

73

-1.9

140.3
141.0
140.8
142.1

12/80
1/81
2/81
3/81

9
10
11
12

-1.6
-0.9
-1.1
-0.8

142.5
143.5
143.2
143.6

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

+ 35

13
14
15

-1.0
-2.7
-4.6

143.3
140.9
138.2

8/81
9/81
10/81

+ 30

5
6
7
8

+8
M5O

+4

for
current
cycle

I c,c,c I

1967=100

Percent

Actual
data

-3.1
-2.6
-2.8

Percent

• 170

MONTHS

DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
ACTUAL
AND
FROM
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
7/80

• 140

SERIES

+ 25

73

+ 20

1967=100
3
4

-12

-16
• 120

5.4
8.2

135.7
139.2

10/80
11/80

5
6
7
8

9.0
9.6
9.4
10.4

140.3
141.0
140.8
142.1

12/80
1/81
2/81
3/81

9
10
11
12

• 130

• 160

10.7
11.5
11.3
11.6

142.5
143.5
143.2
143.6

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

13
14
15

11.3
9.5
7.4

143.3
140.9
138 .2

+15

+10

140

Median

+5

8/81
9/81
10/81

• 130

-20
92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed 1
Actual
data

ixr

CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR

Actual

SERIES> 9 2
PERCENT

+6

+4

+3

+2

+1

2
2
3
3

.27
.18
.06
.63

12/80
1/81
2/81
3/81

9
10
11
12

3
1
0
0

.11
.94
.91
.64

4/81
5/81
6/81
7/81

13
14

+5

5
6
7
8

0 .10
0 .04
0 .15

8/81
9/81
10/81

15

5
6
7
8

2
2
2
3

.47
.41
.32
.20

2
2
2
3

.33
.27
.18
.06

3 .77
3 .25
2 .08
1 .05

3
3
1
0

.63
.11
.94
.91

3/81
4/81
5/81
6/81

0 .78
0 .24
0 .18
0 .29

0 .64
0 .10
0 .04
0 .15

1111111

111111111111111111111111

0

+6

+12

+18

• 3

• 2

7/81
8/81
9/81
10/81

10

13
14

-6

+2

11/80
12/80
1/81
2/81

11
12

-12

+3

SERIES
92
PERCENT

9

-2

+ 4

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
FROM
SPEC.
DATA YEAR
TROUGH
6/80

0

-1

+ 5

15
16

+24

Months from reference troughs

+1

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from specific troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1981 issue.
x
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.




19
0

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Accession rate, manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption
Imports of automobiles and parts

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
lumber

Charts

2
604

16
56

Tables

61
92

Historical
Serie:
data
lescriptions
issue date)

(*)

8/81
8/80 •

18
64

61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973

24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38

67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76

3/81
3/81
8/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80

34
34
31
48
48
48
43
49
48
48
48

55
616

22
56

65
92

4/81
8/80

50
64

B
Balance of payments-See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve . . .
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories-See Inventories.
Business loans-See Bank loans.
Business saving

Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (BEA)
Manufacturing (FRB)
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital investment-See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars.•
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population

Total
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded .
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of national
income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction

15,35
32

12/80
12/80

43
43

9/80
9/80

72
112

45
45

13 ,25
24
24
38
33
12 ,23
23

67
67
67
76
72
65
65

7/81
7/81
3/81
3/81
10/80
3/80
3/80

46

82

5/81

20
20
20

64 ,
64
64

8/81
8/81
8/81

25
25
25

97
11
965

24
24
37

66
66
75

10/81
10/81
10/81

33
33
33

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

11/81
4/81
4/81

51
18
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81

20
20
20
20

920
920c
951
940

60

112

10
39
36
11
23
15,35
32

74*'
60
66
73
72

11/81
11/81
12/80
11/81
3/81
12/80
12/80

15*
15
32
43
43

345

49

87

11/80

56

345c
280

50
45

11/80
5/81

56
56

64

30,47

4/81

56

346

49

11/80

56

346c

50

11/80

56

340

49

11/81

15

340c

50

11/81

15

341

49

11/81

15

341c
348
349

50
50
50

11/81
8/81
8/81

15
62
62

19

6/81

22

iomposite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders
,
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
Profitability
'
Twelve leaders
,.
Twelve leaders, rate of change
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. .
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, as percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential as percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
All items, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption
penditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol..
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

920
920c
940

10
39
11

11/81
11/81
11/81

930
930c

10
39

11/81
11/81

15

914
915
913
917
916
910
910c

11
11
11
11
11
10
39

11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81

15
15
15
15
15
15

29

13,25
23
24

67
66
67

7/81
3/81
9/81

35
32
28

248
87
86
249

47
25
25
47
25
25

83
67
67
83
67
67

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
3/81

51
51
51
51
51
35

12,21
22

64
65

9/81
7/81

26
24

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

3/81
4/81
6/81
10/80

43
43
43
45

29
76
61
970
14
12
13

9
72

70,83

35
24
34
34
44
32
32

320
320c
322
322c
58

49

49,59
49
49
22

84,95
84,95
84
84
65

3/81
3/81
3/81
3/81
8/80

59
59
59
59
31

20
10
116

12,23
23
34

9/81
9/81
11/80

32
32
46

112
110
72

32
32
15,35

12/80
10/81
12/80

43
44
43

66
113
95

35
32
15,35
33
32

3/81
4/81
6/81
10/80
7/81

43
43
43
45
42

15

Debt-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
New orders, defense products
Obligations incurred
Deficit-See Government.
Deflators-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
'
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components . . .
New orders, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components . . .
Disposable personal income-See Income.

5/80
5/81
10/81
3/81 '

64
53
26

525
564
548
517

110

15
15*

39
32

33
12,21

10/80
10/80

45
28

970
965
951
974
963
967

38
37
36
38
36
37

3/81
10/81
12/80
10/80
9/81
5/80

34
33
15
48
15
36

37

12/80

24

962
975
952
950
964

11/80 !
10/80
12/80
12/80
9/81 ,,

18
48
15
15
26

971
968
976
978

10/80
12/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
8/81
10/80
10/80
9/81

48
36
48
49
48

977
960
972
973
961

NOTE: CI, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




Historical
Series
descriptions
data
[issue date)
(*)

15
37
37

442
90
441
37

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

48
48
15

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Earnings-See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments, rate of change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag. payrolls, Dl
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment . .
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, mfg. production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components .
Workweek, mfg. production workers, Dl
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transacti

Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, and money, Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Food-See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA . . . .
Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Net exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars . . .
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit . .
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and s
e
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars . .
State and local, current dollars . . .
State and local, percent of GNP . . .
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Series
Historical
data
lescriptions
issue date)
(*)

2
441

16
51

61
89

8/81
2/81

18
20

48

17

61

8/81

15

48c
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1

39
17
38
14, 17
36
18
51
17
17
16
36
12, 16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15, 18
18
18
18
18, 51
12, 16

3/81
8/81
10/80
8/81
9/81
2/81
2/81
11/80
3/81
7/80
11/80
8/81
11/81
8/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/81

15
48
15
15
20
20
19
19
18
18
18
15
15
20
20
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
20
20
?.Z
18
20
20
15

961

36*

62
76
62
74
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61
89
89
89
89
62
61
89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62
61
77
74

9/81

72
94
213
917

33
40
11

311
311c

57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
44
44
47

46

9/80
5/81
11/81

45
49
15

5/81
5/81

58
59

8/81
8/81
8/81
8/80
8/80
5/81
4/81
8/81
8/80
8/81
8/80
8/80
5/81
5/81
8/81
8/80
5/81
4/81
4/81

65
65
65
64
64
54
54
65
64
65
64
64
54
54

48
48

667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
255
250
251

11/80

72

93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
82
82
83

65

64
54
54
54

9/80

33

20

63

4/81

25

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81

62
62
62
62
62
62
58

263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
81
81
83
81
81

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81

53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price index, percent c h a n g e s . . . . . . .
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.

Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment .
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, Dl
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

311
311c

48
48
30

70

19,40

63,80

Series
Historic;
descriptions
data
(issue date)
(*)

5/81
5/81
4/81

59
39

80
80
71
63
84
84

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
8/81
4/81
5/81
5/81

49
49
49
49
49
49
40
25
49
49
49

17
17

61
61

11/80
3/81

19
19

16
12,16

8/81
8/81

36

61
61
77
74

9/81

28
29
89
249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

3/81
7/81
4/81
4/81

35
35
51
51

310
310c

48

5/81
5/81

49
49

345

49

87

11/80

56

345c
280
64

50
45
30,47

87
82
70,83

11/80
5/81
4/81

56
56
56

346

49

346c
95
286
287
225
224

50
15,35
45
47
40
40

227

40

340

49

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107

49
310
310c
217

39
40
31
20
48
48
40

I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income ..
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income .
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol. . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income, ratio to money supply
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, Dl
Industrial production -See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total,Dl
Total, rate of change
Installment debt-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . .
Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate

11/80

49

652
651
288
289
220
52
223
51
51c
108
282
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23

50
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
14,19
39
31
45
47
45
47
50
50
19
23
28

76
75
73
74
47

24
22
20
20
14,20,58

11/81

50

341c

11/81

87

341

11/80
6/81
5/81
5/81
4/81
4/81
8/81

87

340c

73
82
83
80
80

37

966
47 c

37"
39

5
962
45

16
36
18

56
43
37
37
22
22
22

11/81
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
63
71*
82
83
82
83
63
65
69
79
75
67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75

61
74
62

11/81
8/81
8/81
5/81
5/81
4/81
6/81
6/81
10/81
10/81
8/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
8/81
8/81
6/81
3/80
5/80

15
65
65
57
57
55
22
22
22

46"
56
56
57
57
62
62
22
32
36

5/80
7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81

24
24
24
24
24

12/80
7/81

24*

7/80
11/80
2/81

18
18
18

NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada, index
Canada, percent changes
France, index
France, percent changes
Italy, index
Italy, percent changes
Japan,index
Japan, percent changes
United Kingdom, index
United Kingdom, percent changes
United States, index
United States, percent changes
West Germany, index
West Germany, percent changes
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions-See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Finished goods, manufacturers'
~.
Inventories on hand and on order, net change
Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated)
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,
change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dol.
Residential, total, constant dollars
Residential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondef ense, constant
dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current
dollars

Historical
Series
data
lescriptions
issue date!
(*)

288
289

5/81
5/81

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

8/81
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars.
Contracts and orders, current dollars..
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in U.S. . .
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

61
970
20
10

24
38
12,23
23

3/81
3/81
9/81
9/81

34
34
32
32

652
651

57
57

8/81
8/81

65
65

30
15,30
30
29

4/81
6/81
7/80
7/80

39
39
39

930
930c
952
3

10
39
36
12,16

11/81
11/81
12/80
8/81

15
18

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
13,31

11/81
11/81
12/80
10/80
10/81

I 15
44
40

Japan-See International comparisons.

59"

96
96
95
95
96
96
95
95
95
95
84,95
84,95
95
95

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

58
58
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94

12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
7/81
12/80

66
66
66
66
66
66
24
66

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81
6/79
7/81

70
70
70
70
70
36
70

667
622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651

57
57
57
56
56
57
56
57
56
56
57
56
57
57

93
93
93
92
92
93
92
93
92
92
93
92
93
93

8/81
8/81
8/81
8/80
8/80
8/81
8/80
8/81
8/80
8/80
8/81
8/80
8/81
8/81

65
65
65
64
64
65
64
65
64
64
65
64
65
65

30
245
247
65
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78

26,42
42
47
27
13,26
27
11
15,27
27
26
38
27

68,81
81
83
68
68
68
60
68 «
68
68
76
68

4/81
4/81
4/81
9/81
9/81
10/81
11/81
10/81
10/81
9/81
10/80
9/81

51
51
51
28
28
28
15
28
28
28
48
28

26

9/81

28

24
24
37
11
23

10/81
10/81
10/81
11/81
3/81

33
33
33
15
32

24

9/81

28

42
42

4/81
4/81

51
51

25
47
25
25
47
25
42
42

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51

23

9/81

26

733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c

59
59"
59"
59"
59
49
49,59

11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
3/81
3/81
11/80
11/80

68
68
68
68
69
69
69
69
68
68
59
59
68
68

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector.
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in totai
Loans-See Credit.

112

15

M
Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change
Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M1
Money supply M1, percent changes
Money supply M2
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply M1
Ratio personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortage yields secondary market
Municipal bond yields

913
78

11/81
9/81
26
12,21
20

68

9/81

28

9/81
8/81

917

11

11/81

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

13,31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

10/81
8/81
8/81
8/81
8/81
8/81
8/81
7/81
11/80
11/80

27
24
8
20
10
548
7

23
23
12,21
12,23
23
53
21
21

40
40
40
40
40
40
40
42
46
46

N

97
11
965
914

243
242

248

249
87
241
240

23

9/81

26

National defense-See Defense.
National Government-See Government.
National income-See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant d o l . . .
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current d o l . . . .
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. .
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

Obligations incurred, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes . . .
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing . .

9/81
9/81
9/81
9/81
9/81
10/81
9/81
9/81

26
26
26
32
32
26
26
26

964
971

9/81
10/80

26
48

87
86
248

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

51
51
51
51

517
721

3/81
12/80

66

49
62
358
370
370c
83
82

84
21

20
15,30
50
50
50
20
20
20
16

NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




Tables

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date)
(*)

4/81
6/81
10/81
8/81
8/81
8/81
8/81

25
39
61
61
61
25
25
25
15

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date)
(*)

P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
3
ersonal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services constant dollars
Services current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total percent of GNP
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
...
Petroleum and products imports
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditues for Dl
PnntrprtQ and nrdprQ fnr rnn<;tant dollars
Contracts and orders for, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items index
All items, percent changes
Food index
Food percent changes
Deflators NIPA
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator GNP index
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent change
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
MsnufBCtuririQ Di
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contracts military
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI
Production-See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business" sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes .
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, cur. dol. . . .
Corporate with IVA and CCA
Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
.
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic
income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc..
L'UllllOL'lj

QIIU

Ul U C I o

IUI,

L»U 1 l o l Q I 11

LiUliaiJ

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

2/81
2/81
2/81

20
20
20

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

5/81
5/81
8/80

58
58
64

61
970
20
10
90

24
38
12,23
23'
18

67
76
66
66
62

3/81
3/81
9/81
9/81
2/81

34
34
32
32
20

320
320c
322
322c

49
49,59
49
49

84,95
84,95
84
84

3/81
3/81
3/81
3/81

59
59
59
59

311
311c
310
310c
23

48
48
48
48
28

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/80

58
59
49
49
36

967
26
92

37
29
13,28

84
84
84
84
69
79
75
70
69

5/80
7/80
4/81

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

number
Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
ssue date)
(*)

93
89
249

33
25
47

72
67
83

9/80
4/81
4/81

45
51
51

59
54

22
22

65
65

10/81
10/81

31
31

213

40

80

5/81

49

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14,22
22
38
27
22
22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

9/81
10/81
10/81
10/80
10/81
10/81
10/81

28
28
28
48
28
31
31

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81

37
58
58
58
58

92

13,28

69

4/81

60

19
968
78

13,28
37
27

69
75
68

3/81
12/80
9/81

36
36
28

38

26

68

9/81

28

114
115

Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI . . . .
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

36

Curren issue
(page numbers)

Series

34
34

72
73

11/80
11/80

46
46

91
60
5
962
3

15,18
17
16
36
12,16

62
61
61
74
61

2/81
3/81
7/80
11/80
8/81

20
19
18
18
18

446
445
447
444
37
4

51
51
51
51
18,51
16

89
89
89
89
62,89
61

2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/81

20
20
20
20
20
18

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

2/81
2/81
2/81

20
18
20

96
25

21
21

64
64

10/81
9/81

26
26

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

71
71
64

8/81
8/81
10/80

40
40
28

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
92
1

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
13,28
12,16

85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
69
61

6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
4/81
3/81

59
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
15

961

36"

77
74

9/81

15*'

36
36

60

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

3/81
12/80

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
26

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
29

85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
70

6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
7/80

59
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

10/80
10/80
10/80
5/80
11/80

48
49
48
64
46

88

25

67

4/81

51

358
370
370c
916

50
50
50
11

88
88
88
60

10/81
11/81

61
61
61
15

18
16

28
28

69
69

4/81
4/81

37
37

80
79
286
287
972
960
15
916
22

28
28
45
47
38
37
29
11
29

69
69
82
83
76
75
70
60
69

4/81
4/81
5/81
5/81
10/80
8/81
7/80
11/81
4/81

37
37
37
37
48

81
282
283

29
45
47

70
82
83

4/81
5/81

37
56
56

Quit rate, manufacturing

4

16

61

8/81

18

Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national
income

284

45

82

5/81

57

285

47

83

5/81

57

S
Salaries-See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order . . .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
change
Surplus-See Government.

T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

U

5/81

38*'
15
37

Q

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males, 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
United Kingdom-See International comparisons.

V
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance

W
Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive nrices change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl . . . .

NOTE: Cl, composite index; DI, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. „

Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23,66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68)

Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.

13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)

37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)

I-A. Composite Indexes

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)
(M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(29,70)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

915.

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).—Source 2
(26,68)

40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(18,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and
over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,62)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 110) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(16,61)

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers ( M ) . The Conference Board
(17,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

47. Index of industrial production, total (M).-Source
4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this
series may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)

48. Employee-hours
(M).-Source 3

24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).-Source
2
(23,66)

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19, 26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

940.

Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (16,61)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (12,16,61)
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).-U.S.
Labor, Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis

(16,61)

unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(16,61)

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)
7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)
28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26,42,68,81)

8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(12,21,64)

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)




114

in

nonagricultural

establishments
(17,39,61)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)

51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).—Source

1

(19,63)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).—
Source 1

(22,65)

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)

87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)

89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)

66. Consumer installment credit (EOM)-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally
adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(35,73)

88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

92. Chanfe in sensitive crude materials prices (PPI of crude
materials less agricultural products) (smoothed) ( M ) . Sources 1 and 3
(13,28,69)
93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1
(30,70)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(15,35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4

nondurable
(20,63)

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(27,68)
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66)
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(13,31,71)

952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
700 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls—172 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries—35 industries (M).-Sources
1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79)

106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)

970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).—Source
1
(38,76)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml-B
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,72)

80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S.
Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—
Source 1
(20,64)



951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
53-82 industries ( M ) . - S t a n d a r d & Poor's
Corporation
(37,75)

113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—Source
4
(32,72)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)

82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).—Source
4
(20,64)

950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)

105. Money supply Ml-B in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(31,71)

79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)

81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).—Source 1
(29,70)

(34,72)

1-C. Diffusion Indexes
85. Change in money supply Ml-B (M).-Source 4(31,71)

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)

119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)

971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

15
1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

Il-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).-Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(46,82)

249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

116

311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source
3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84)
330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source
3
(48,85)
331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).—Source 3
(48,85)
332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities ( M ) . Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).-Source
3
(50,88)

(45,82)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(45,82)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)




310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(48,84)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1

239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(42,81)

Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

(46,83)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
- Source 1
(47,83)

238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

1

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).—Source
3
(49,87)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).—Source

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).—Source 1 (46,83)

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(47,82)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(50,88)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)

(45,82)

441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production, total
(M).-Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

570. Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)

320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and
3

(51,89)

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)
578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)

453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)

Il-D. Government Activities

588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)

452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Il-E. U.S. International Transactions

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

604. Exports of agricultural products (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)
557. Output of defense and space equipment ( M ) . - Source

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices ( M ) . Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)
733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(59,95)
736. France, index of consumer prices (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Instituto Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(57,93)

745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)

669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)




726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

652. Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

(54,91)

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
(58,94)

742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—The
Financial Times (London)
(59,96)

559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)

651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

4

722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Instituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)

510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)

721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)

Il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Instituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(59,96)

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