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J.S. DEPARTMENT OF
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NOVEMBER 1968
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical
Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report.
%
^fM $
\ M^/
<*>„ rES of '
,«**
^x,
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. R. Smith, Secretary
William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
JULIUS SHISKIN, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
ANTICIPATIONS
AND INTENTIONS data
provide information on the plans of
businessmen and consumers -"regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
C
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS are economic time series
which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Bus/ness Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
to make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $1.50.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.
New Features and Changes for This Issue
4 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
BCD
Seasonal Adjustments________________________________________________________________________1
MCD Moving Averages......____________________________________________________________...... 1
Reference Turning Dates______________________________________________________............
1
Section A. National Income and Product______________________________..............
JUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
1
Section B. Cyclical Indicators______________.............................. ............. ...
NOVEMBER 1968
)ata Through October
Jeries ES! No. 68-11
2
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions......________.......... ...................... 3
Section D. Other Key Indicators_______________.................____________________......3
Section E. Analytical Measures......_______.......__________......_____.......__________3
Section F. International Comparisons ..... ............________...........____________3
Howto Read Charts_________________________________.....___________________...........________4
Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes.................. 5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3.
~A2
__A3
A4
~A5
_A6
_
_A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories...
National Income Components
Saving.
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
„ 17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment....
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
18
21
23
26
28
30
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes..
NBER Short List
34
35
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
39
42
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
45
46
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements.
51
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
El
E2
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios.....
55
56
E3
Diffusion Indexes...
58
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl
F2
F3
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
60
61
62
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investments
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
63
....63
64
64
65
65
.65
65
66
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl
B2
B3
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
67
69
70
..72
73
74
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
_
76
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
77
78
-
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components.....
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
80
.....81
..83
84
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes....
Diffusion Index Components
.....
...85
86
87
90
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices....
Industrial Production..
Stock Prices
.....96
97
98
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See October issue)
B. Seasonal Factors
C. -Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series...
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources for Series and Analytical Measures...
ii
....99
.....100
107
113
115
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
hanges in this issue are as follows:
changes are made from
1. Expansion and Revision of BCD. BCD has undergone a major
:xpansion and revision this month. Most of the content of Business
been retained while additional data reflectng the emphasis of other approaches to the analysis of current
iusiness conditions and prospects have been added to make it more
enerally useful for this purpose.
The expansion consists of new sections on GNP and its major
omponents, anticipations and intentions surveys, and the balance
,f payments accounts. In addition, composite indexes of leading,
oincident, and lagging indicators have been included in the
eport. The revision consists of a reorganization of the cyclical
ndicators series to show the "f2 indicators classified by economic
rocess with timing subgroups, and the nshort list1' classified by
iming.
The title has been changed to Business Conditions Digest to
9flect the broader scope. An order form for the report appears
a page 111.
This enlarged publication will take longer to print and to
istribute. To speed up the availability of these indicators to
he public, an advance release of the expanded summary table
table l) will be sent to subscribers about one week before the
Bgular issue. The advance release will contain most of the
jrrent figures that will be shown in that table printed in BCD.
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
2. The series on manufacturing and trade sales and invenories—series 31, 71 > 56 (formerly 8l6), and 851--have been
^vised for the period January 1961 to date. These series now
icorporate the recent revisions in data on retail sales and
mufacturersf shipments, inventories, and orders. For more
:>mplete information concerning these revisions, see the Monthly
stall Trade Report, August 1968 (series BR-68-8) and Manufacirers ' Shipments^ Inventor!^
(series
j -1 .T77~both~ is sued by the Bureau of the Census, and the
)vember 1968 issue of the Survey of Current Business, issued
r
the Office of Business Economics.
Continued on page iv.
e December issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
lease on December 31.
111
Changes in this issue—Continued
3- The series on U.S. industrial production (series 4 7 and 853)
revised for the period January through December 1967 due to the source
agencyTs annual updating of seasonal adjustment factors. These
revisions are also reflected in diffusion indexes D^7. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Business Conditions Section.
4. Series 17 (price per unit of labor cost) and series 62 (labor
cost per unit of output) have been revised for the period beginning
December 196^ to incorporate recent revisions in industrial production
data and national income and product accounts data.
5- Data on manufacturers' new orders of defense products (series
648) are now shown in addition to the series previously shown on new
orders received by "defense products industries?r (series 6^7, formerly
series 99). The new series on defense products includes defense
activity (including the Department of Defense, but excluding contracts
with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Atomic
Energy Commission) in the shipbuilding, ordnance, communications,
complete aircraft, and aircraft parts industries; whereas, the series
on defense products industries exclude shipbuilding and include both
defense and nondefense work in the other four industries. Additional
information concerning these series may be obtained from the Bureau
of the Census, Industry Division.
6. Appendix F includes historical data for all series included in
section C (Anticipations and Intentions), for the composite indexes
in section B7 (series 8lO, 820, and 830), and for series 17.
7- Appendix G includes descriptions for all series in section C,
for the composite indexes in section B7; and for series 17; ^7, 62,
and 853.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
3.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National income and Product
Cyciica! Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part !! (tables) of the report. The charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior or many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order,
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shading area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods a^d services.
Persona/ consumpt/on expend/tures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods output po.rtion
of GNP, covering durable and nondurable
goods and both final sales and changes in
business inventories, is also included in
section A. Other major aggregates taken
from the national income and product
accounts are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the persona!
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the-List to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity, such as change in
the rate of growth.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
Each of the major processes is subdivided
into minor processes which exhibit rather
distinct differences in cyclical timing. The
timing classification takes into account a
series' historical record of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach
peaks or troughs before the corresponding
turns in aggregate economic activity;
roughly coincident indicators are direct
measures of aggregate economic activity
or move roughly together with it; lagging
indicators usually reach their turning points
after the turns in aggregate economic
activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is charted separately.
Also included in this section is a group
of composite indexes. These indexes provide simple summary measures of the
average behavior of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is
weighted according to its value in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in
aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each indicator has, aside from its weight, an equal
opportunity to influence the index, and the
index is standardized so that its average
month-to-month change during the postwar period is 1.0 percent per month.
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical trends of each group of indicators and the relative magnitude of their
short-term changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that its long-run trend parallels
that of the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading,
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(3 series)
(25 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
AND
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
coincident, and lagging indexes and tends
to shorten the leads of the leading index
at business cycle peaks while lengthening
them at troughs; it also reduces the variability of the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these se>ies should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do)
and are not firm commitments. Among
both businessmen and consumers, some
responses may not be very reliable; that
is, the plans may be conjectural or the
respondent may make little effort to reply
accurately to the survey questions. Also,
many plans are subject to modification or
even complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com-
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, net and cumulative changes are shown for other components; for example, U.S. liquid liabilities
to all foreigners and U.S. official reserve
assets. Because these data are influenced
by foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationships
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents diffusion indexes
for selected economic activities. Many of
the series throughout this report are aggregates compiled from a number of
components. A diffusion index is a simple
summary measure which expresses, for a
particular aggregate, the percentage of
components rising over a given timespan.
It reflects only directions of change among
the components, not magnitudes. Cyclical
changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead
those of the corresponding aggregates.
Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic,
long-term (6- or 9-month span) diffusion
indexes are shown to bring out the underlying trends and short-term (month-tomonth) indexes are shown to indicate the
most recent developments. Most of the
diffusion indexes are based on aggregate
series shown in section B, and have the
same series numbers preceded by the
letter "D". The diffusion indexes are classified according to the cyclical timing of the
aggregates to which they relate.
The final part (E4), which appears only as
a table, lists many of the components
used in computing the diffusion indexes.
Where possible, recent data for the components are shown and the month-tomonth directions of change are indicated.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
—** P
T
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
4*. Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.)
s
*
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
«•
-.
•
100 n
V
90-
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
80 J
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into six sections
and various subsections. The back cover, which lists series titles and sources in numerical order within each of the six sections, also
indicates the charts and tables in which they appear.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Percent change
o5
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1965
1966
1967
ZdQ
adQ
«h Q
1967
1967
1967
IstQ
1968
2dQ
3dQ
1968
1968
4th Q
to
IstQ
1968
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1968
1968
E
oi
oo
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200.
205
210.
215.
217
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
. . do. ...
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol ...
do
684.9
617.8
no. 9
3,518
3A74
116.6
117.7
811.0
681.8
118.9
3,796
3,337
3,965
3,380
3,924
3,365
3,988
3,388
4,055
3,409
620.8
586.8
645.1
621.6
541.5
670.9
645.2
559.6
483.7
574.4
586.3
476.3
656.9
633.7
550.0
479.5
491.8
497.1 499.2
747.6
789.7
657-1 673.1
113.8 117.3
780.2
669.2
795-3
675.6
831.2
692.7
852.9
703-4
120.0
4,147
871.0
712.3
122.3
4,245
3,456
121.2
4,323
3,501 3,536
+2.5
+1.6
+0.9
+2.3
+1.4
+2.6
+2.1
+1.5
+1.0
+1.3
+0.9
+1.8
+1.0
+2.4
+1.3
200
205
210
215
217
A2. National and Personal Income
220.
222
224.
225.
226.
National income, current dollars
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
Personal income current dollars
.do
...
Disposable personal income, current dol. . .
do
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol. .
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
Ann. rate, dol ...
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
do ...
688.1 705.4 722.0
662.7 678.1 694.3
+2.4
+2.4
+1.1
+1.7
+2.5
+2.3
+2.1
+1.1
+0.4
220
222
224
225
+2.4
+1.8
+0.8
226
2,478
+1.5
+0.8
+0.2
227
541.1
+3.4
+2.5
+6.5
+3-5
+1.6
+0.6
+2.5
+1.8
+3.7
+2.1
+2.5
+2.8
+2.1
+0.8
+2.2
+5.1
+2.9
+9.0
+2.0
+2.1
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
564.3
538.9
473.2
435.0
459.2
652.9
628.8
546.3
478.0
2,432
2,598
2,7A4
2,723
2,758
2,798
2,866
2,918
2,942
2,235
2,332
2,401
2,395
2,404
2,418
2,454
2,474
432.8
397.7
66.3
40.5
25.8
465.5
492.2
490.3
495.5 502.2 519.4
431.8 434.1 444.9
527.9
447.5
81.0
52.0
29.0
228.2
511.6
592.7
+2.6
+2.7
+2.6
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230
231
232.
233.
Total current dollars
Total constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars .
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
237. Services current dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol..
do .
do
do
do
do
do
417.8 430.5
431.2
47.7
24.9
73.4
47.6
25.8
73.1
47.7
25.4
74.2
48.9
25.3
215.3
201.6
216.4
218.4
188.3
215.8
203.8
79.0
50.6
28.4
226.5
205.9
209.6
213.9
218.7
455.7
85.1
53-5
31.6
232.7
223.4
108.1
120.8
114.3
107.6
114.7
121.8
119.7
127-3
127.1
71.3
25-5
45.8
2?.2
+9.6
81.3
28.5
52.8
24.8
83.3
27.7
55.6
26.0
+5-3
85.0
27.7
57.3
28.5
+8.3
88.6
29.6
59.0
29.1
+2.1
87.0
28.5
58.5
29.5
+6.3
-1.8
+6.9
+3-0
+2.1
-6.2
-3.7
-0.8
-0.2
+3.6
+1.1
+4.8
+10.8
90.1
28.8
61.3
29.5
+7.5
-1.7
+4.2
+14.7
82.7
27.2
55-5
22.7
+2.3
+1.4
+8.7
-3.3
+6.9
39.2
32.3
+5.1
43.1
38.1
+5.1
45.5
40.4
+5.4
46.1
40.6
+3.4
46.0
42.6
+1.5
47.5
46.0
+2.0
49.9
47.9
+3.3
52.6
49.4
-1.9
+0.5
+1.3
+3.3
+8.0
+5.1
+4.1
+5.4
+2.7
+3.0
+2.9
+2.4
+2.0
+1.2
+0.8
191.1
175.5
70.5
45.2
25.3
206.7
72.6
+12.3
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241.
242.
243.
244.
245
Gross private domestic investment total . .
Fixed investment, total nonresidential. . . .
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . .
Fixed investment, residential structures. . .
Change in business inventories total 2 . . .
250
252
253
Net exports of goods and services 2 .
Exports
Imports
do
do
do
do
do
do
....
83.6
27.9
55.7
24.6
+6.1
0.0
240
241
242
243
244
245
A5. Foreign Trade
. .. do ....
. . . . do
do
+4.8
45-8
41.0
+3.1
250
252
253
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260
262
264.
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and lo r al
do
. . . do . .
do
137.0
156.2
178.4
77.4
60.6
78.8
90.6
(JO
66.9
50.1
70.1
do
133-0
do
do
+6.7
204.7
do
+3.0
do
do
... do ...
177.3
+2.9
260
262
264
266
+1.4
+3-5
270
-2.7
+4.0
+4.7
+1.0
-1.3
+2.4
271
274
+2.5
-3-5
+4.0
-2.1
275
507.1
519-7
+2.5
63.4
21.0
91.2
26.7
+2.9
+1.1
+1.0
+2.1
62.6
20.9
89.2
25.8
+1.3
+1.0
+1.3
+0.5
+2.2
123.3
130.1
132.4
40.8
44.0
37.1
24.8
71.2
20.4
72.3
23.6
73.7
-17.7
+15.7
+5.1
+1.5
-12.5
-10.3
-11.3
+ 2.2
+1.9
-1.0
+1.6
-14.0
24.8
74.9
-4.3
+0.6
-i-l.l
-3-1
-7.0
-9.0
-4.2
-3-9
-2.0
179.6
183.5
190.5
72.4
87.8
90.0
72.1
87.2
91.3
72.9
88.4
93-5
74.6
90.0
97.1
76.8
93.4
145-7
156.4
157.1
157.3
159.9
+10.2
221.8
+3.0
234.5
+0.6
234.7
+3.8
236.2
+4.2
236.6
+4.5
+3.1
+1.7
+1.6
393-8
57.3
19.0
76.1
18.2
435-6
468.2
461.8
471.5
60.7
19.8
60.7
23-3
60.5
20.2
79.6
22.9
115.3
126.3
119-5
28.4
32.9
40.2
. . do . .
. . . „ . do
24.9
59.8
27-5
64.1
24.0
do
+ 2.2
do
+5.0
195-7 199.6
100.0 101.2
79.0
95.6
79.6
98.4
+3.8
+3.9
+2.9
+3.8
166.7
169.1
175-1
+4.3
246.1
+1.5
+6.2
248.5
+4.9
254.4
+4.1
+0.6
+4.6
61.2
20.4
80.2
23.6
482.7
61.1
20.5
82.3
24.3
496.8
61.8
20.7
83.8
25.0
113.0
120.1
126.9
37.0
40.5
43-4
69.2
23.4
68.4
23-5
70.0
^1.7
-13.8
-15-9
-10.0
-0.1
+0.4
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Durable goods output, final sales
.271. Durable goods output, change in business
275. Nondurable goods output, change in
A8. National Income Components
280
282.
284
286
288.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp profits and inventory valuation adj
Net interest
do
do ....
83-9
20.8
20.3
80.4
-rl.8
42.9
+6.4
+3.2
+3-5
-2.8
-6.0
+5.5
+7.8
-15-7
280
282
284
286
288
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving total
292 P°rsonal savins
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
298
Government surplus or deficit total 2
207
GNP gap (potential less actual) 2
do
do
+1.8
+7.0
290
292
294
296
298
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207
5
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data 1
Percent change
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1968
1968
Series number
Series title
Unit
of
measure
+1.6
+0.9
+0.3
+1.6
+2.1
+3.3
+2.5
+2.0
+2.3
810
820
830
+1.0
-0.4
+0.2
-0.2
-3.1
(NA)
-3.9
+0.2
+0.7
+4.2
*1
#4
2
178 +7.5
+4.3
(NA)
+4.5
+0.1
-3.1
-3-2
+5.4
-2.6
+6.9
49
46
-0.2
+0.1
+0.1
+1.0
+0.7
+0.6
+1.1
+0.6
+0.6
48
*41
42
Aug.
1966
1967
IstQ
1968
2dQ
1968
3dQ
1968
Aug.
1968
Sept.
1968
Oct.
1968
to
Sept.
1968
Sept.
to
Oct.
1968
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
285.4
322.2
373-6
290.0
329.1
385.9
297-2
335-6
394.8
296.5
335.2
395.9
299.5
337-4
398.2
40.6
40.6
41.0
5,896
4.6
40.7
5,784
4.5
41.1
5,884
4.4
40.6
5,656
4.6
40.9
5,838
4.4
5,760
4.7
5,580
200
1.3
191
1.2
200
1.2
201
1.3
186
1.2
368
193
388
188
388
201
365
198
388
219
136.3
68.3
72.2
136.5
136.2
68.4
72.4
68.5
72.5
+0.1
+0.1
+0.3
270.3
288.5
329.4
271-3
304.8
355.2
. Hours
41.3
Ann. rate, thous. . 6,542
Per 100 employ . . 5.0
Thousands.
. Per 100 employ . .
198
1.2
226
1.4
Job Vacancies:
49 Nonasri job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
Thous., EOP....
1957-59=100....
404
190
345
182
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
304.4 +1.0
340.3 +0.7
399.4 +0.6
Ann. rate, bil.
810, 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .Jan. 1948=100...
do
do
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1 Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg . .
*4 (Vonasri olacernents all industries
•«
2 Accession rate manufacturing 2 .
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted3)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted )2 . .
(NA)
(NA)
+0.1
0.0
0.0
-4.7
0.0
5
I
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
129.3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3 ) 2
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
(inverted 3 ) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted3)2.
131.8
133.4
66.0
70.5
67.4
71-5
134.7
67.9
71.9
136.2
64.0
68.9
Mill ions
do
42 Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . . .
68.3
72.3
376 +6.3
212 +10.6
3.8
Percent
do
. .
3.8
3-6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
3-6
-0.1
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.0
+0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
*43
+0.1
+0.1
0.0
45
-0.1
+0.1
0.0
40
+0.1
0.0
*44
do
1.9
.1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.0
do
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
747.6
657.1
156.3
789.7
673.1
158.1
831.2
692.7
162.1
852.9
703.4
164.0
871.0
712.3
164.6
163.9
164.4
165.0
+0.3
+0.4
+2.6
+1.5
+1.2
+2.1
+1.3
+0.4
*200
*205
*47
Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 586.8
156.6
do
628.8
163.9
662.6
172.7
678.2
175.9
694-3
178.9
694.1
178.3
699.7
180.6
702.2
181.4
+0.8
+1.3
+0.4
+0.4
+2.4
+1.9
+2.4
+1.7
*52
53
1,047
732.8
303.6
1,069
783.6
313-8
1,126
829.1
330.4
1,152
842.1
337.0
1,178
1,167
863.5
347.1 348.4
1,186
(NA)
+1.6
(NA)
+2.3
+1.6
347.3
345-5
-0.3
-0.5
-r2.0
+2.3
+2.5
+3.0
*56
57
*54
1957-59-100 . 105.5
Ann. rate, thous. . 200.3
107.7
207.8
113.9 115.1
212.8 226.6
120.3
243-3
119.7
240.6
122.1
254.8
(NA)
(NA)
+2.0
+5.9
(NA)
(NA)
+1.1
+4.5
+7.4
*12
13
Ann.rate,bil.dol.. 308.1
147
1957-59-100....
. Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 75.5
25.0
do
63.3
."
do
Ann. rate, mil. sq.
769.7
ft.floor space. .
Ann. rate, thous. . 1,149
86.2
1957-59-100....
302.3
155
326.6
164
325.0
159
329-1 326.5
192
187
339.1
183
78.7
22.0
64.9
80.1
22.8
67.6
88.0
24.9
70.6
94.2
86.4
+3.9
-4.7
-8.3
-7.8
+9.3
75.4
23.0
63.0
365.4
200
100.8
+16.7
72.4
71.0
77.9
-1.9
-9.7
-0.5
-3-0
+1.8
-3.6
-4.2
702.9
1,273
721.6
1,418
109.2
797.6
1,524
110.6
793.8
1,496
107.8
739.1 9 5 5 - 6
1,570 1,519
116.4 113.4
-6.9
^4.9
+8.0
^29.3
95-6
770.0
1,469
112.9
Bil. do!., EOP... 77-99
20.72
do
80.58
20.41
81.75
20.48
80.97
20.60
80.57
21.06
80.18
80.57
81.56
-=0.5
+1.2
61.69
64.90
62.75 a64. 90
n A nn
an nr>
an QO
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
0.0
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars.
*47. Industrial production . . . :
Comprehensive Income:
53
Wages salaries in mining, mfg, constr. ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
* 56 Manufacturi ns and trade sales
57 Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
Ann.rate,bil.dol..
. do
1957-59-100 ....
do
do
do
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries. .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings.
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
+6.5
+1.3
+17.6
+ 9.9
-9.2
+ 4.4
*6
.8
*10
11
24
-6.3
-3.5
-3-3
+10.5
+ 1.3
9
7
*29
-1.0
+0.6
-0.5
+2.2
96
97
-3-3
-3-2
-2.6
+-3.4
*61
+7.5
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital approp. manufacturing.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip. . . Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 60.54
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction exnenditures
do
T~> Cl
CK)
-3Q
cJo /.n
o;
en
fl\T4 "l
fl\Tfl "l
.n o
in
69
Basic data'
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
1968
1967
1966
1968
1968
Sept.
Aug.
1968
to
Sept.
Oct.
1968
1968
Oct.
1968
1968
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1968
Sept.
to
Aug.
1968
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries 2 .
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories 2
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories'
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies 2 .
26. Buying policy, production materials,
comm'tments 60 days or longer 2^3)
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries 2 ®.
25, Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industries 2 .
Ann. rate,
T-6.1
do
+16.0
53
Ann. rate,
bil dol . .
+3.0
+2.1
+10.8
+7.5
-r6.6
+5.5
-rl3.5
+7.4
44
+0.1
53
+0.5
55
+3.5
51
+2.1
+8.7
+10.3
55
+2.0
^5.5
40
+0.9
(NA)
42
(NA)
-4.8
-15
-1.1
(NA)
+2
(NA)
-3.3
245
^8.0
-6.1
*31
+2
+3.0
Percent
71
65
63
66
65
66
60
62
-6
+2
+3
do
Ann. rate,
bil dol .
73
44
53
52
49
46
46
52
0
+6
-1
•13.0
•2.6
+4.7
Bil. dol., EOP...
137.2
143.8
145.2
25.14
26.81
-3.2
-4
-1.4
37
20
-1
26
-3
32
-7.9
• 1.6
25
(NA)
+2.3
+1.3
*71
-rl.C
(NA)
-rl.6
r2.9
65
97.5
+1.4
+1.5
-3.1
-1.7
*23
103.8
+3.3
+2.5
+7.0
+ 1.9
*19
*16
-1.6
^5.9
•4.8
•11.9
-1.1
148.5
150.4
149.9
150.4
(NA)
+0.3
27.21
27.64
28.44
28.15
28.44
(NA)
96.1
101.3
7.1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*7l. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices ®
1957-59-100 ...
115.2
100.4
99.8
96.7
95.1
94.8
Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks®
1941-43-10 ....
85.3
91.9
91.6
98.0
99.9
98.1
Ann. rate, bil. dol •
51.0
48.1
49.1
50.7
51.0
+3.3
•rO . 6
13.5
12.0
11.7
11.7
8.8
11.4
(NA)
0.0
+0.2
-0.3
(NA)
22
18
99.7
98.3
• f o .3
-0.1
-1.4
*17
-'0.1
+0,5
+0.6
+0.3
+0.5
58
0.0
+0.7
+0.6
+1.9
6?
* 6£
Profits and Profit Margins:
22, Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries'
18 Profits per dollar of sales mfg 2
*17, Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
8.6
9.3
8.3
1957-59-100 ...
104.5
100.7
99.8
1957-59-100 ...
104.7
105.7
106.3
106.7
108.2
108.6
108.7 109.0
109.2 109.7
Dollars
1957-59-100 ...
0.677 0.706
101.1 106.0
0.721
108.7
0.721 0.725
109.5 111.6
Ann. rate, percent
do
Ann. rate, bil. dol .
do
. do
do
+5-1 +10.5
+2 0 2 +6.2
'15.4 +16.8
+18.6
Qents
97o6
97-9
-0,3
108 „ 9
109.5
109.2
109.9
109.7
110.0
+0.3
111.9
112.6
112.4
+0.6
-0.2
+6.2
+5.9 •11.0 +13.3
+5.8
-5.0
+8.7
+4.5
+19.7 +18,5 +19.3 +17.9
+8.3
+7.1 +8.9 •10.2
+4.1
+9.4
+4.5
-4.3
71.0
86.3
+11.5
+5.0
(NA)
(NA)
+10.1
-7.1
-1.4
-1.9
+8.4
+5.3
+10.0
(NA)
(NA)
+6.0
+0.1
+4.1
+1.1
+1.0
+4.6
+11.6
-4.6
-35.3
+14.4
•12.6
1
14
(NA)
-0.06
+0.01
39
3
-177
9
93
97.9
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities® .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®.
fin
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 2money supply and time
deposits
33
*113
112
110.
Change in mortgag 0 debt 2 '
Change in con c umer installment debt^
Change in business loans 2 • • .
Total private borrowing
+5.8
+4.6
+6.1
+8.2
62.0
+3.4
+4.6
66.4
+6.1
+4.8
63.6
1.41
1.26
11
.1
0.95
0.83
0.65
Percent, EOP. . .
1.75
1.74
1.51
1.57
1.56
1.56
Mil. dollars ....
-276
+194
-44
-360
-183
-190
-132
-186
do
do
do
4.88
5.67
4.65
3.81
4.33
6.08
4.85
3.94
5.51
6.94
5.30
4.46
5.23
6.71
5.07
4.31
5.10
6.54
5.04
4.21
5.20
6.69
5.09
4.38
5.33
6.88
5.24
4.49
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures
.... do
39. Delinquencyjate, installment loans
(inverted )^
«
....
0.68
0.92
-10.8
(NA)
<ti
8
3
33
113
*11
11
112
11
110
+21.5
• 5.1
-4.2
-1.2
+1.8
-4.9
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 3 ) 2 ®
Money Market Interest Rates:
116 Corporate bond yields 2 ®
117. Municipal bond vields2(u)
5.06
6.65
5.24
4.38
-58
+54
+316
+0.10
+0.15
+0.05
+0.17
+0.13
+0.19
+0.15
+0.11
+0.45
+0.29
+0.06
+0.08
-0.28
-0.23
-0.23
-0.15
11
11
11
11
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data 1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Aug.
1966
1967
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
1968
1968
1968
Aug.
1968
Sept.
Oct.
1963
1968
to
Sept.
1968
Sept.
to
Oct.
1968
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
|
1968
1968
Ǥ
c:
o>
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS--Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGG/NG INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
Bil.dol., EOP...
66. Consumer installment debt
do
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
73-5
76.9
64.8
78.4
65.8
80.2
82.4
(NA)
+0.9
(NA)
69.2
70.2
+0.6
+1.4
+2.3
+3-3
+2.7
69.2
81.7
68.8
82.4
68.0
+1.8
66
*72
6 .42
6.00
6.56
6.36
6.81
6.84
7.23
6.89
7-35
7.35
7.28
7.29
-0.07
+0.1
+0.48
+0.42
+0.05
+0.12
*67
118
Ann. rate, bil.dol. •
•3.8
^4.1
+2.1
-tO.5
-2.0
-rl.l
t3.4
-0.8
+2.3
-4.2
-1.6
-tl.5
500
do
29.4
31.0
32.1
33-5
35-9
35-0
39.0
31.1
-20 . 3
-^4.4
+7.2
502
10.9
10.8
11.5
11.8
11.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-2.6
-3.3
+5-1
+ 5.6
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2 ®. . . Percent
do
118 Mortsase yields residential 2 ^^
59.8
6.00
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance2
502 Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
11-3
+11.4
(NA)
-7.6
+1.6
31.9
+ 5.0
-4.2
506
508
512
do
1957-59-100....
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
25.6
26.9
31.3
32.9
33.8
do
do
-1.36
^0.27
-3-57
-3-40
-2.72
-2.21
-0.64
-6.09
-'0.14
•1.76
Hn
-'0.7
-12.4
-8.6
-10 . 2
-3.0
-1.6
+7.2
600
do
143.0
151.2
166.6
171.8
181.9
+3-1
+5.9
601
do
142.4
163.6
175.1
181.9
184.9
72.4
81.0
26.1
42.5
42.3
76.8
-3-9
-2.9
•1.3
-9.4
-8.4
-tl.6
60.6
72.0
22.9
39-3
7
602
264
616
621
647
625
113.1
105.9
Percent
Ratio
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports
216
230
242
234
247
11.9
245
33.9
249
35.6
-10.4
+2.7
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
522
O f f i c i a l settlements basis 2
+2.08 +0.78
+8.30 -4.33
520
522
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2 .
601. Federal receipts, national income and
602. Federal expenditures, national income
oc/i
v 1
i H f
"T
621 Defense Dept obligations procurement
647 New orders defense products industries • •
625. Military contract awards in U S
do
do. . .
. . . do .
do
28.8
79.0
84.5
26.1
49.8
37.8
45-6
43-0
79.6
(NA)
33-4
44.5
44.5
116.3
106.1
119.0
107.8
120.4
108.5
121.9
109.0
90.5
85.3
84.9
84.8
83.6
1.48
Hn
1.58
1.54
1.54
1.53
39.
83 .4
96.6
33.6
46.9
38.1
121.9
108.7
(M)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
38.8
42.6
(NA)
52.6
+ 15.5
48.3
48.5
^26.8
^23.5
-tO. 4
122.2
109.1
ir.2 . 9
109 . 1
+0.2
+0.6
+0.4
(NA)
-1.3
(NA)
-4.1
(NA)
+0.3
TO. 2
-Q.2
+13.8
+0.8
(NA)
+28.0
-2.4
+3.5
D4. Price Movements
781 Consumer prices all items©
750 Wholesale prices all commodities®
1957-59-100
do .
+1.2
+0.6
-H.2
+0.5
781
750
-0.1
-1.2
850
-0.6
851
-0.6
-2.7
852
-1.5
-0.9
853
+5.6
-16.0
854
+0.4
0.0
-5-1
(NA)
855
858
+0.4
0.0
856
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 2 . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
1.54
3-48
3.37
3.35
3.26
3-38
1957-59-100. . . . 123.0
123.3
119-7
117.9
116.8
116.5
Ratio
0.064
0.074
0.071
do
1957-59-100....
0.146
127.7
0.121 0.127
129.0 131.9
1957-59 dollars..
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
do
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2®. . . Percent
2.40
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
allI
do
3.34
2.43
7B.3B 78.0?
6.2
7-0
1.52
3.24
116.8
117.0
0.075
0.063
0.138
132.4
0.131
2.47
2.48
2.48
2.48
2.49
2.49
+0.4
78.40
5.5
78.73
5.7
79.27
5.4
79.07
79.74
79-30
+0.8
(NA)
0.132
0.135
0.132
+2.3
-2.2
(NA)
0.0
-0.6
0.0
+ 8.7
+0.4
+0.2
+0.7
-0.3
859
857
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by (g), which appear to contain no seasonal movement.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators
these series, except series 54, 200, and 205, are included in composite indexes, section B7.
NA = not available.
a - anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
1
Except for series expressed at annual rate or end of period (see "Unit of measure"), quarterly figures for monthly series and annual
figures are averages for the quarter or year covered.
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to the movements in general business activity, the signs of the changes arereversed.
AND
Chart Al ! GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. dol.)
210, Implicit price deflator, Q index: 1958=100)
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, thous. dol.]
217. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
},94B
19
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
!!€!»
Section A
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National income, current dollars, Q (aim. rate, bil. dot.)
, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
224. Disposable personal income, current
dollars, Q (am. rate, bil dol.)
Q [ann. rate, tiwus.
in
NOVEMBER 1968
KCII
Section A
Chart A3
NATIONAL
AND ?*
I PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
„__
A f tinaif^"*'
34. Automobiles, current Collars, Q
236. Nondurabie goods, total current dollars, Q
,948
49
50
51
52
NOVEMBER 1968
53
54
55
56 . 57
58
59
C
68
69 1970
n
Section A
Chart A4
1948 49
12
50
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOVEMBER
1968
BCII
AND r.
Section A
I Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
duly i
(Aug.
'P
T
T
35 55 -i
35 '
948 49
50
51
52
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
13
Section A
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
260. Federal, Hap and local governments, Q
1
!
1948 49
5-0
14
5.1
52
53
54
55
56
=5 7
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOVEMBER 1968
BCII
AND
Section A
Chart A7
1948 49
50
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
51
52
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
•'
53
54
55
56
57
53
59
60
6i
5;
65
66
67
68
69 1970
15
NATIONAL S'^J'tt'sr
Section A
Chart A8
| NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
[July; (Aug.)
P
I
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P" T
(May) <;Feh,'
P I
inventory vacation adjustment, Q
49
50
16
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOVEMBER 1968
BCII
Section A
!
NATIONAL INCOME AND
Chart A9
SAVING
(July)
P
1948 49
50
51
52
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
(Aug.
T
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
17
Section
B
CYCLICAL tfWi
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bi | EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
Marginal Employment Adjustments
*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
^Agricultural placements, al industries (thousands)
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 emptoyees-taYerted scale!
18
NOVEMBER 1968
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Bl
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.:
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
50
51
52
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
F T
55
56
57
58
(May) (feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
19
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL IND1C/UO :
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Bl ! EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
•,b,y. (A;;r'
r
\
M.1V Feb.
Unemployment rate, total (percent - inverted scale)
^r _„__. _™_™_Aj!
^ _
married males {percent - inverted scale)
weeks and over (percent - inverted scale)
20
NOVEMBER 1968
Section B
Chart
B2
CYCLICAL
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
| PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
*47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59-100)
nanifacturtng,
^r
6/
r.8
89 1970
21
Section B
CYC! U;AL INOJCAPj-:
Chart
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
B2 i
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(Aug.)
I
(May) (feb.)
P T
200 minus
1948 49
50
51
22
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
, Q (aim, rale. Ml. dol.)
60
61
62
63
64
?
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOVEMBER 1968
Section B
Chart
B3
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
j FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(index: 1957-59=100)
^ ^13. New business incorporations (thousands)
8. Construction contracts, total value (Index: 1957-59=100); MCD moving avg.-5-term)'
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from !Mc-Graw Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
NOVEMBER
1968
23
Section B
CVC J t A - iPC< *
Chart
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
B3
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
July 'Ap- '
iMayi -;feb.;
F T
p
r
factoring, Q bil. do I.)
, machinery and equipment industries (bil. dol.)
and industrial (mil. sq. ft.
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann. rate, millions; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
units (index: 1957-59=100)
SO J
1948
4S
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
^his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced (without written permission from iMc-Graw Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
24
NOVEMBER 1968
ItCII
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B3 I FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Hov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P I
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Machinery and equipment sates and business construction
BCII
NOVEMBER 1968
25
t >
Section B
Chart
B4
^
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
, ail industries, Q (ann. rate, Ml. do I.)
20 -:
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
~|win. r
37. Purchased materials, percent of
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
26
NOVEMBER 1968
ItCII
Section B
Chart
B4
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
! INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Lagging Indicators
-it*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
IICII
27
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL ifrDU'A ? - - . - :
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B5 | PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July)
P
(Augj
T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
;May) (feb.)
P
T
160
140
120
,00
prices, 500 common stocfcs index: 1941
*16. Corporate profit* after taxes, mm
£^
22. Ratio, profits tflpome orig
— *~"^fr^~~~^"~"
• '*'*
A
rate, bil. dol.)
, ail industries, Q (percent)
manufacturing, Q (cents)
(index: 1957-59=100)
28
NOVEMBER 1968
BCII
Section B
Chart
B5
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
I PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nay) (Feb.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
P
I
T
110105-
-
100 -
90 J
120-i
115 -j
110 -j
Hft-i
_i
*m
Lagging Indicators
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NOVEMBER
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
manufacturing index: 195749=100
'in
68
1968
69 1970
29
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
In money supply and time deposits [ana rate, percent;
D moving avg.^term]
85. Change in money supply (m rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
33. Change « mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*113. Change in consumer instalbnent debt (am. rate, bil. do!.}
l iiYii
Hii li^
30
niv&i avg.-5-termJ
NOVEMBER 1968
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6 j MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
; July i
p
(Aug.
r
(July) !AprP 'I
(May) (Feb.;
P ' 'T
of
bJL^fSS,^'111^.]™1:^01- -
inverted
S0316;
39, Definquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent - inverted scate)
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
31
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B6 i MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
-1JJ-,
117. Municipal bond yiekls (percent)
32
NOVEMBER 1968
BC1I
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
B6
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (feb.)
P T
100 -i
60 -
40J
60 -
40 J
8i
76 "~
4J
6-
i
I
s-j
4J
1948 49
50
51
52
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
33
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart
B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
09 1970
34
NOVEMBER
1968
BCII
Section B
! Chart
B8
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.!
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) {Apr.)
P ' T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
67
NOVEMBER 1968
ItCII
68
69 1970
35
:
Section B
Chart B8
u
r
0,
J <•
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
acturing and trade inventories
*23. Industrial materials prtee* (index: 1957-59=100)
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194143=10)
*16. Corporate profits aftw taxes, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
*17. Ratio, price to unit
manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100]
debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
62
36
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1870
NOVEMBER 1968
iicn
INDICATORS: Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
^.T^T
gtvy «>\ ^
MI |SK
iFV- J>
V'^
J>> s?
"tv ^^(
fe^-'v^'/
^f'^
^"
*' V A*
^^ i*
-1''j,v ''
?"'4
^'
^?>
\.\V5';
|^"^
|}j^
'^'.
V
§••!
^^U
3'JU
-|
850 -j
800 -|
^r~^
| 7
;
^>^
_^*
V*^
i*<r
J^
700 "j
X^"^
*200. 6N|^ furrent dollars, (|^B. rate, ML dol.)
050 {
^^
Rnr. . '
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*47. Industrial production* (index: IS§7-59=100)
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. (tol.)
Manufacturing and trade
*54. Sates of retail stores (bil. dol.)
*41. Employees OR nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
ht
BCII
NOVEMBER
1968
:
57
5B
fe?
68
69 1970
37
C/CUCAl l^int-T\--:0 Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart B8
; NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
Nov..- (Get,
T
P
July
,Ayg
P
I
(July, 'Apr.
P"
T
P
T
*44. Unemptoyment fate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over [percent ~ inverted scale)
S*/w-*'/v—-
plant and equipment, Q |aim. rate, bi. dol.)
*7t. Book value, manufactunng and trade inventories (bit. dol.)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks fbi. dol.}
*67.Bank rates on short-term business loans, 0 (percent)
38
NOVEMBER 1968
ItCII
'M'.>N<* W
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, att industries, Q
a. Actual expenditures
(arm. rate, bil. dol.)
b. Second anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
I IT.
9
c. First anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
it77V"
n«i! Ti J i
QL
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
m
?
. 9
T T ,1
9? 1
MTTI
?l
Q!
39
Section C
Chart
ANTICIPATIONS AMD
Cl ! AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July)
P
(Apr.)
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
, total value, Q (bil. dd.
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered tow, Q (percent)
manufacturers' capacrty: percent
madef|U3te less percent considered
1957
58
40
59
60
61
62
63
64
.••
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
NOVEMBER 1968
BCII
Section C
AND I
Chart Cl j AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
ftf 420. Current income
Jfe^
60 •*,
compared to Income a year ago, Q
reporting no change in family income (percent)
(a) Pi
of households reporting higher family income (percent)
of households reporting lower family income (percent)
425. Mean probability
changes in income of households, Q
Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)
430. Number of
(ann. rater|
»...«—•—«..^...*••**•• ,^
purchased by households, Q
of consumer sentiment, Q (1st 0 1966 =100)
I
I
_„.
„_«__«-
,•-•'
10:
fiC
1957
58
59
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/NOVEMBER 19G8
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCD
60
69
70
•
1971
41
Section C
Chart C2
(July)
P
A?{!
i DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Apr.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
0444. Net sates, manufacturing and trade 14-Q span)
manufacturiig and trade (4-Q span]
1957
58
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced
without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
42
NOVEMBER 1968
BCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND
Chart C2 [ DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
-
40 -
-i
80 •
H
60 -
20 0
-
J
GO -
60 -
0 100 -
-
60 -
40« '
2001957
58
59
60
67
68
69
70
1971
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced
without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
43
Section C
Chart C2
(July)
P
| DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(Apr.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
for new plant and equipment, all industries,
100
480. Change in freight cartoadings
(millions of cars-4-Q span)
XN
1957
44
81
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
NOVEMBER 1968
ItCII
Section
D
Chart Dl
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
F
T
(Hay) (Feb.)
P
T
•1.0 '
1948 49
bO
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 196B
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
66
67
68
69 .1970
45
Section D
OTHER
Chart D2 1 U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
U.S. balance of payments, u iuil. doi.
520. Liquidity balance basis
(Change in U.S. official reserve assets aed change
522. Official settlements basis
in Doid liabilities plusjcertaii ramfcjuid liabilities
to foreign monetary official agencies)
Major components, except military grants of goods
and services (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
Excess of receipts (inflow]
Excess Gf payments (outflow)
520. LJqiiidty halanrp
16--,
527. Net capital movements,
ifficial settlements basis;
12 -»
Official setttemerrts balance-series 522
4 -
0J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960 except for series 520. i/lncluding unilaterial transfers, and errors and omissions.
46
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
1970
NOVEMBER 1968
KCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart^ D2J U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
40 T
Major components, except military grants of goods
and services-continued fbil. dol.)
36 -
m
32 -
28 -
530. Liquid liabilities to all foreipere, outstanding at end of period
24 -
20 -
A
16 -
12 -
S
. Liquid and certain
$31 Liquid ,fl*\i nonlquid liabitities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
24
20 -
16 -
12 J
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCI!
47
Section D
Chart
D2
U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Goods and services movements, except transfers under
military grants [ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services-
1948
49
50
51
52
K
*3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
85
66
67
68
69
1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
/IQ
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
^0
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NOVEMBER 1968
Section D
Chart
D2
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
i U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
| Investment income, military sales and expenditures,
I
and other services (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
Investment income-
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in the7 U.S.
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
LM^
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
Transportation and other services-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
SB
59
60
61.
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
49
Section D
Chart
D2
I U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital movements, including errors and omissions
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Excess of receipts (inflow]
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
561. U.S. investments abroad
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
Securities investments—
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
50
NOVEMBER 1968
BCII
Section D
! Chart D3
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
| FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
„<',«.; Oct.;
,>
July; i Apr, i
r
?
r
Receipts and Expenditures
600. Federal sun^s or deficit, national nwme and product
Mpl
receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
s, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, Ml. dol.)
V;
yen
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
51
54
55
56
57
b7
68
69 1970
51
THLk K£V vt,K./.
Section D
Chart D3 i FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (feb.i
P
I
(toiy) (Apr.)
P
T
Defense Department
[bil. dol.; MCD moving
tary conFact awardrinU.5:
del.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
1948
49
50
51
52
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOVEMBER
1968
BCD
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
NOVEMBER 1968
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
711
53
54
55
Fi6
57
5
66
67
68
69 1970
53
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
! Wholesale Prices
Index: 1957-59-100
58. Manufactured goods
68
54
69 1970
NOVEMBER 1968
BCD
Chart El
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
205. Actual GNP
J/Trend line of 3V2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3 3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter.
BtJ) NOVEMBER
1968
55
Section E
Chart
E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
manufacturers' durable goods industries
•'<1'1 49
50
5
56
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOVEMBER 1968
ltd*
Section E
Chart E2 | ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
s unfilled to number of persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private itonfarm, Q (index: 1957-59^100)
856 Real a
-
lJW* fow'y earnings, production workers,
workers (1957-59 dollars)
7. Vacancy rafi§>tal rental housing, Q (percent)
~J
1948 49
50
51
52
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53
54
55
56
57
£8
62
63
$4.
*i5
66
67
68
69
5
1970
57
Section E
Chart E3
! DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span----!
too •
06. New orders, durable goods industries - 36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span- )
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations - 17 industries, NICB (3-Q span***, 1-Q span-*-*)
034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits - about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-0 span)
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks - 77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
023. Industrial materials prices - 13 industrial materials (9-mo. span — , 1-mo. span—.)
05. Initial claims, State unemployment Insurance - 47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
58
NOVEMBER 1968
BCD
Section E
ANALYTICAL
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent rising
041. Employees on nonagricurtural payrolls - 30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
047. Industrial production - 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—!
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods - 22 industries [6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
054. Sates of retail stores - 23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
A3 413
49
50
51
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
66
67
68
f>9 1970
59
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart pf] CONSUMER PRICES
Consumer Price Indexes: 1957-59=100
1548 49
50
60
SI
52
•>'?
>4
5E
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
NOVEMBER
1970
1968
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart
INDUSTRIAL
F2
PRODUCTION
Industry Production Indexes: 1957-59-100
180 -i
160 140 -
47. United States
120 -
1948
49
50
51
5.2 53
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69. 1970
61
Section F
Chart
lS4tf
49
F3
50
STOCK PRICES
51
62
5i
53
54
55
56
5?
58
59
80
61
62
63
84
65
86
67
68
69
1970
NOVEMBER 1968
BCD
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
200. Current dollars
205. Constant (1958)
dollars
210. Implicit price
deflator
215. Per capita GNP,
current dollars
217. Per capita GNP,
constant (19 58)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Index: 1958=100)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
1966
728.4
740.4
753.3
768.2
648.6
653.3
659.5
112.3
113.3
114.2
115.2
3,765
3,820
3,883
3,308
3,323
3,344
3,372
772.2
780.2
795.3
665.7
669.2
675.6
681.8
116.0
116.6
117.7
118.9
3,893
3,924
3,988
4,055
3,356
3,365
3,388
3,409
831.2
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
692.7
703.4
r712.3
120.0
121.2
122.3
4,147
3,456
4,245
4,323
3,536
667.1
3,715
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
811.0
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
852.9
r871.0
3,501
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
220. National income
in current dollars
222. Personal income
in current dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate, dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dollars)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
604.0
615.1
570.4
580.3
500.0
505.5
454.1
466.6
454.6
626.7
637.3
592.1
604.5
525.4
638.6
645.1
614.8
621.6
541.5
656.9
670.9
633.7
645.2
550.0
559.6
476.3
479.5
483.7
688.1
662.7
574.4
586.3
592.7
491.8
497.1
499.2
515.4
461.4
2,550
2,571
2,613
2,316
2,312
2,656
2,340
2,359
2,693
2,723
2,758
2,798
2,379
2,395
2,404
2,418
2,866
2,454
2,474
2,478
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
534.2
471.9
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
705.4
P722.0
678.1
694.3
2,918
2,942
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
KCII
63
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant(1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234. Automobiles
total in current
in current dollars
total except autos,
dollars
in current dollars
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
457.8
461.1
469.3
473.7
415.7
414.8
420.0
420.6
71.6
68.2
71.0
71.1
44.7
44.2
45.8
45.8
26.9
24.0
25.2
25.3
202.8
206.3
208.3
209.3
183.4
186.7
190.0
193.3
480.9
490.3
495.5
502.2
424.8
431.2
431.8
434.1
69.8
73.4
73.1
74.2
46.7
47.6
47.7
48.9
23.1
25.8
25.4
25.3
212.9
215.3
216.4
218.4
198.2
201.6
205.9
209.6
519.4
527.9
541.1
444.9
447.5
455.7
79.0
81.0
85.1
50.6
52.0
P53.5
28.4
29.0
226.5
228.2
232.7
213.9
218.7
223.4
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
P31.6
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
243. Producers'
durable equipment
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
116.8
121.0
119.9
125.7
78.6
79.8
82.6
84.2
28.6
28.1
28.9
28.2
50.0
51.7
53.7
55.9
27.3
25.8
24.4
21.7
+10.9
+15.4
+12.8
+19.8
113.0
107.6
114.7
121.8
83.5
82.7
83.3
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.7
27.7
54.5
55.5
55.6
57.3
21.1
22.7
26.0
28.5
+8.4
+2.3
+5-3
+8.3
119.7
127.3
127.1
88.6
87.0
90.1
29.6
28.5
28.8
59.0
58.5
61.3
29.1
29.5
29.5
+2.1
+10.8
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
64
NOVEMBER
1968
ItCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
H
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
253. Imports
260. Total
262. Federal
264. National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter ....
Fourth quarter
1967
+6.0
+5.2
+4.5
+4.5
36.1
37.3
39.1
39.7
147.8
153.1
159.5
164.3
72.5
75.6
79.9
81.5
55.3
58.6
63.0
65.4
75.3
77.4
79.7
82.7
+5.2
+5.1
+5.4
+3.4
45.5
45.5
46.1
46.0
40.3
40.4
40.6
42.6
173-1
177.3
179.6
183.5
87.4
90.0
91.3
93.5
70.0
72.1
72.9
74.6
85.8
87.2
88.4
90.0
+1.5
+2.0
+3.3
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter • ...
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
42.1
42.6
43.6
44.2
47.5
49.9
52.6
46.0
47.9
49.4
190.5
195.7
199.6
97.1
100.0
101.2
76.8
79.0
r79.6
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods output
Nondurable goods output
270. Final sales 271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
275. Change
in business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
H
-
93.4
95.6
98.4
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation
of employees
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
143.3
142.2
147.3
150.2
+7.6
+9.9
+10.5
+13.6
217.3
220.4
223.7
225.1
+3.3
+5.5
+2.4
+6.3
420.6
430.8
441.4
449.7
61.5
60.8
60.2
60.2
19.5
19.7
19.9
20.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
151.1
157.1
157.3
159.9
+3.3
+0.6
+3.8
+4.2
230.4
234.7
236.2
236.6
+5.0
+1.7
+1.6
+4.1
456.7
461.8
471.5
482.7
60.1
60.5
61.2
61.1
20.1
20.2
20.4
20.5
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
166.7
169.1
175.1
+1.5
+6.2
+4.9
246.1
248.5
254.4
+0.6
+4.6
+2.5
496.8
507.1
519.7
61.8
62.6
63.4
20.7
20.9
21.0
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
0 NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS- Con.
Qj SAVINGS IN CURRENT DOLLARS
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
292. Personal
saving
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter ....
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . .
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
66
82.7
83.4
84.2
85.3
19.8
20.4
21.1
22.0
121.4
127.1
126.0
130.7
29.5
31.4
32.9
38.1
26.5
26.9
27.2
29.4
62.3
63.5
64.6
65.9
79.5
79.6
80.2
82.3
22.2
22.9
23.6
24.3
118.0
113.0
120.1
126.9
39.7
37.0
40.5
43.4
24.2
23.4
23.5
24.8
67.1
68.4
70.0
71.2
-12.9
-15.9
-14.0
-12.5
83.8
89.2
P91.2
25.0
25.8
26.7
123.3
130.1
P132.4
40.8
44.0
37.1
20.4
23.6
p24.8
72.3
73.7
74.9
-10.3
-11.3
P-4.3
NOVEMBER
+3.0
+5.3
+1.2
-2.6
1968
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
^^^
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
*4. Nonagricultural
placements, all
industries1
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1
5. Average weekly
initial claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs 2
(Hours)
Year
and
month
*1. Average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing1
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing 1
Per 100 employees)
49. Nonagricultural
job openings unfilled 1
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
41.0
40.3
40.4
534
519
497
4 6
4.3
4 1
203
242
14
i%
OQO
256
1 7
oAp
1 £9
n on
1 A),
April
May
June
40.5
40.5
40.4
474
448
487
4 2
4.6
4.5
26?
234
225
14
14
1.4
QCQ
1 1
8
351
351
174
July
August
September
40.5
40.6
40.9
484
486
480
4.4
4.4
4.4
261
215
14
1.3
13
344
169
350
373
1£5
October
November
December
40.?
40.7
40.7
474
476
479
4-5
4-5
4 4
209
201
198
12
12
360
352
12
345
186
187
190
January
February
March
40.2
40.8
40.7
498
479
494
4.5
4.5
4.1
214
199
188
1.4
1.4
1.2
356
360
368
184
193
202
Apri 1
May
June
40.1
40.9
40.9
466
A44
504
4 7
4.6
4.5
190
193
190
1 i
1.3
1 i
382
396
r388
188
187
189
/
4 .0
r> £.&
368
365
388
185
198
0>r219
209
Q7C
180
1968
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
LO Q
512
1*40.7
i -i -i
48<c
r41.1
480
p41.0
p465
1 r\f-)
1
r\f\
4.5
p4.7
(NA)
214
201
186
[JE> 178
1.2
rl.3
pi. 2
(NA)
P376
p212
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by &>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45r and 93), current low values are indicated by
[tb> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 1, high value ( 1 6 reached Feb. 1966; Series 4,
4.)
high value ( 0 ) reached Feb. 1966; Series 2, high value (5.2) reached Mar. 1966; Series 3, high value (l.O) reached Oct. 1966;
60
Series 49, high value (438) reached Sept."1966.
2
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve BCDof St. Louis
Bank
&/
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
y| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
Ml. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
131.56
131.07
131.00
65,524
65,646
65,672
70,104
70,187
69,964
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
April
May
June
130.67
130.95
131.39
65,619
65,677
65,821
70,096
69,822
70,430
3*7
3.9
3.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
July
August
September
131.52
132.22
132.40
65,920
66,186
66,123
70,631
70,708
70,941
3.9
3.8
4.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
October
November
December
132 . 23
133.72
133 . 23
66,286
66,778
67,060
71,017
71,166
71,361
4.3
3.8
3.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.7
0.6
0.6
January
February
March
132 . 16
134.38
133.80
67,058
67,600
67,656
71,164
71,604
71,788
3.5
3.7
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
April
May . . . .
June
134.01
134.68
135.46
67,755
67,792
68,039
71,656
71,936
72,197
3.5
3.5
3.8
2.1
2o2
2.2
fj> 1.5
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
135.89
1-136.26
[H> 1-136.47
68,170
r68,314
r68,389
72,202
72,196
72,355
3.7
[u^. 3.5
H>
3.6
2.3
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
p!36.l6
fir--> p68,525
[[£>>• 72,471
3.6
1.7
IH"> 0.5
Year
and
month
1967
January
February . .
March
.
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
(Percent)
0.6
1968
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
2.1
2
| > °°
t
^
January
February
March
April
Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14f 39, 40, 43. 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[B>». Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The YT indicates revised; "p% preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
NOVEMBER
1968
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
g PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION \NDTRADE
|
\
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR!
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
Comprehensive Income
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of
tional product
industrial protional product
in current dolduction
in 1958 dollars
lars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
(Mil.dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil.dol.)
1
Revised
(0
1967
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
January
February
March
772.2
665*7
r!58.3
r!56.7
r!56.6
612.1
614.6
617.6
162.4
161.4
161.7
87,987
87,365
87,664
763*8
25,687
25,470
25,739
April
May
June
7B0.2
669*2
r!56.7
155.6
r!55.7
618.6
620.6
625.8
161.2
161.2
162.2
87,684
87,998
89,292
778.0
25,918
25,897
26,544
July
August
September
795*3
675*6
r!56.4
r!58.3
156.8
629.8
634.2
637.0
163.2
164.9
165.2
88,679
90,135
89,987
789*9
26,444
26,466
26,773
October
November
December
811.0
681.' 8
r!57.2
r!59.8
rl62.1
638.0
644.9
652.6
165.0
168.2
170.2
89,043
90,759
91,970
802.7
26,100
26,385
26,368
831.2
692*7
161.2
162.0
163.0
654.9
663.0
670.0
170.2
173.8
174.2
93,077
93,821
94,612
829.1
26,936
27,512
28,145
852 .'9
703*4
162.5
164.2
165.4
672.6
678.2
683.7
174.0
176.6
177.1
94,436
96,043
97,554
842*1
27,675
28,132
r28,451
g> 1*871. 6
B> 165.6
|H>r712'3
163.9
rl64.4
689.2
694.1
r699.7
177.8
178.3
rl80.6
98,379
97,243
0>P98,872
[H>r863'5
r 28, 802
H>r29,037
r28,941
pl65.0
E> P?02.2
[f£> p!81.4
1968
January... .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
. . . .
(NA)
p28,789
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [fD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45r and 93)P current low values are indicated by
[E>». Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "shortlist" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
B FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
i
^^™
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business
Fnternrises
H
*12. Index of net
business formation
Year
and
month
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
,
.
. J
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
13. Number of new *6. Value of
business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(Number)
(Bil.doL)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value 1
(1957-59=100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.doL)
102.2
103 2
103 3
16,703
23 94
126
5 92
15 087
Oh
~\ c.
16 244
1 A3
•J-*O
2? 5A.
"1/jQ
£ .17
o Lj>
& 1A
103 7
PA rw.
25 30
25 77
-io#
JOO
1 c ).
164
A r\3
A i r\
1A9
6 24
165
168
6 57
6 A3
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing2corporations
(Bil.doL)
r
179
5 • (<•
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.doL)
c ryj
2 ,<J(
5 .U2
no
Qrt
4 .70
April . . . .
May
June
105 o
108 1
16 760
17 627
17 799
July
August
September
108 4
110 7
110.3
16 300
17 674
18,118
24 92
25 88
25 18
October
November
December
110.6
112.7
113.8
18 000
18 403
18 168
25 68
25 85
28 06
168
6 66
6 42
166
6 L3
January
February
March
113.5
114.5
113.6
17,223
18,014
17,974
26.84
26.81
28.00
159
156
176
6 50
6.51
6 67
April
May
June
113-9
115.1
116.2
18,659
18,796
19,197
27.37
27.17
26.70
146
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
r5.69
rll9.1
rH9-7
19,530
20,053
B>21,237
26.81
27.21
r28.26
187
192
183
6.96
7.85
r7.20
p6.23
(3>P30.45
|H>200
6 nn
(<.
5 .79
nc5'
5 .Uo
5 .uy
no
qrt
5 OG
r do
P .0^
r y rr
;>.4r
r oj>
POO
r or
POP
5 on
o-i-
5 7A
r qrr
P 'J f
C cp»
p. pu
1968
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
g>P122.1
(NA)
(NA)
L-**^
5 hi
5
51
5 3A
5 3ft
5 A.9
5 /j.5
5 97
5.71
6.03
r5.92
fp^>p6.49
7
jn^> ^^
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45r and 93)r current low values are indicated by
g^>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The YT indicates revised; u p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
2
This series reached its high value (6.69) in II Qtr. 1966.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
70
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq. ft. floor
space)
1967
January
February
March
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started2
(Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits 2
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing2
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
49.09
1,079
83 1
1 1?2
77 ro
^6 1A
1 067
7ft Q
en Q
90 7
91 1
97 9
7c ap
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
77 36
57 ft/L
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
April ..
May
June
58 27
1 099
5L 72
62 30
1 25L
July
August
September
*>6 72
61 66
60 45
1 356
1 381
1 415
1 214
7A r\\
76 75
An As
171
£rj
f/4-.O (
60 90
96 L
77 ft?
ZL
77 9/L
102 3
77 9A.
106 9
79 13
97.2
80.49
80.59
81.75
9O
7ft
e;ft
78 82
102.2
116.7
77
1968
January . .
February
March
64.51
61.39
66.61
1,430
1,499
1,479
121.4
April
May
June
47.09
66.96
66.35
1,562
1,345
1,348
r!06.9
r!07.0
81.90
80.97
July .
August
September . .
71.65
66.15
61.59
1,507
rl,496
rl,570
r!07.7
r!07.8
rll6.4
79.68
80.18
r80.57
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
lfir>79.63
pl,519
pl!3.4
7A A;,
20 42
p81.56
120.0
H3.7
80 58
QO
1 4. 7<7A 9ft
...
99
IJI
20 25
64.08
CO
Oo;5
An so
77 ?1
1,478
1,567
1,235
5^.42
(. °. np>
yu
17 C
...
76 5P
October
November
December
63.17
rjL
9H )<0
7A 7Q
62 70
77 9?
20 41
79 9L.
80 77
0> 64.90
80.79
80.59
20.48
[H> 82.24
81 59
62.75
80.32
80.86
r20.60
a64 90
p2l'.06
>
80 09
r82 40
Iir ^>'p84.50
(NA)
a65.15
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [FD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45r and 93)f current low values are indicated by
(H>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
3
Series that reached their high values prior to 1 6 are as follows'- Series 7, high value (1,833) reached Oct. 1963; Series 29,
97
high
value (124.6) reached Feb. 1964; Series 97, high value (20.77) reached III Qtr. 1966.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/NOVEMBER 1968
BCD
/I
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
QH INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in
bus. inventories after valuation adjustment, all indus?
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
month
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories 1
(Percent
reporting)
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60
days or longerQ1
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®1
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised8
1967
2
Revised
January
February
March
+8.4
+12.8
+5-7
+5.0
April
May
June
+2.3
+6.4
+2.9
-0.7
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.17
+0.65
+0.79
139.68
139.92
139.87
26 22
26 41
26 36
July
August
September .
+5.3
+5.6
+6.7
+4.2
40
42
44
+1.4
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.50
+0.12
+0.01
140 34
140.90
141.25
26 43
26 61
26 64
October
November
December
+2.6
+13.1
+14.6
45
46
54
+0 1
+0.6
+0.3
62
63
64
50
+8.3
51
48
+0 88
+0.31
+1.45
141 46
142.55
143.77
26 63
26 70
26.81
+4.0
+8.6
+4.0
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+1.16
1A4.H
144.82
145.15
26.97
27.09
+16.0
+15.9
+8.6
51
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1 .7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+0 48
-0 34
-0 93
146 49
147 81
148 52
27 64
+6.5
4-1 n ^
59
cc
2?
+3 5
68
//
07 70
-4-O n
AD
4-H Q
An
J,0
CNA}
Ao
48
45
46
+2.6
+0.4
+0.6
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
138 25
138.73
139.15
25 LI
25 68
25 82
1968
January
February
March
+2.1
April
May
June
+10.8
July
August
September
r»4-f7 . c;
TTT { ?
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
. .
TYf C C
CNA")
56
1 2Q
1 LQ 0/>
4o
; /;
+0.49
w-t-o / n
149 . 92
ro
X
_i_n QQ
;/
p-Hj. yy
ttw _-i c/-\
o rt
p>p!5U.J8
flvTA ^
^JNA;
27.21
07 or
27 59
28.15
JH^>-28.44
^JMA;
/>TA
\
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE 1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated 'by B>' for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45r and 93), current low values are indicated by
fc>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Aeries that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 245, high value (+19. 8 ) reached IV Qtr. 1966; Series
31 high value (+20. 0) reached June 1966; Series 37, high value (63) reached Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+5.7) reached Aug.
1966; Series 26, high value (75) reached Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value (86) reached Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.82)
2
reached
Sept. 1966. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1968
72
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
S
|radityVPrices !
Stock Prices
*23. Indexof *19. Index of
industrial
stock prices,
materials
500 common
1
prices©
stocks©
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
1957-59=100) (1941-43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
indus.1
(Percent)
18. Profits
(before
taxes) per
dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.1
(Cents)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
LEADING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.)perunit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59=100) 1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (Dollars)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod. @
58. Indexof
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods©
(1957-59=100)
Revised3
Revised^
1967
*62. Indexof
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
January
February
March
106.8
105.2
102.5
84.45
87.36
89.42
47.1
12.1
8.5
102.1
101.9
101.2
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
0.701
104.2
104.4
105.0
April
May
June
100.1
99.6
99.8
90.96
92.59
91.43
47 .*3
I2.'i
8.2
101.4
100.8
100.3
106.0
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
0.701
104.7
105.5
106.3
July
August
September
98.3
98.1
97.8
93-01
94.49
95.81
47^6
l !8
i
8.1
100.3
100.2
99.6
106.0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
0.708
106.5
106.6
107.5
October
November
December
97.7
99.1
100.1
95.66
92.66
95.30
50.3
12.2
8 '.4
100.0
100.2
100.9
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
107.3
107.6
0.715
107.1
107.1
106.6
January
February
March
99.8
99.5
100.1
95-04
90.75
89.09
49.1
11*7
8.6
99.8
99-7
100.0
107.8
108.3
108.6
108.1
108.7
108.9
0.721
108.3
109.0
108.9
April .
May
June
98.3
96.1
95.6
95.67
97.87
100.53
5CK7
li'.7
&'.&
100.0
99.5
99.6
108.8
108.6
108.8
109.1
109.1
109-4
0.721
109.1
109.7
109.8
July
August
September
94.4
94.8
96.1
100.30
98.11
101.34
P5l".0
Pli.*4
(NA)
99.5
97.9
97.6
108.8
108.9
109.2
109.7
109.5
109.9
(ft>p0.725
110.2
1 19
1.
|J>112.6
97-5
^ 103.76
10106.14
P97.9
r!09.7
|£>pl09.9
[?j> 110.0
1968
October
November
December
3
101.1
pl!2.4
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45r and 93), current low values are indicated by
[£> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached Mar. 1966; Series
16 high value (51.6) reached III Qtr. 1 6 ; Series 22, high value ( 3 9 reached I Qtr. 1 6 ; Series 18, high value ( . ) reached
9 6
1.)
9 6
98
I Qtr. 1966; Series 17, high value (105.2) reached July 1 6 . 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
96
3
4
Average'for November 19, 20, and 21.
Average for November 19, 21, and 22.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
BCD
NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
BJ MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies 1
*113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
110. Total pri112. Change in
business loans 1 vate borrowing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current liabilities of business failures 1
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment loans
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March
+10.20
|T>- +14 52
+13 . 56
-0.72
+10 56
+9.72
+9 40
+11 78
+11 47
+3 36
+2 59
+3 17
+7 04
+0 86
+6 83
60 804
+9 25
+1 63
+8 09
6l 864
££ CM,/,
June
July
August
September
+13 . 80
+11.88
+8.04
+12.24
+7.44
+1.32
+16 84
+22 . 88
r+20 . 78
+2 70
+4 13
+3 41
+16 09
-9 19
-2 15
October
November
December
+7.68
+7.32
+6.00
+7.32
+5.28
+2.04
+21.02
+22.07
+19.87
+3.73
+5.02
+4.60
+5.36
+2.66
+8 39
76 936
January
February
March
+5.28
+4.92
+7.20
+6.60
+2.64
+4.56
+18.49
+19.20
+17.96
+4.78
+6.79
+6.79
+12 53
-2.28
+4.07
April .
May
June . . . .
+4.20
+7.44
+6.12
+5.88
+11.76
+8.40
+19.00
+22.96
+17.14
+6.50
+7.32
+7-58
+19.64
+2.23
+6.41
July
August
September
+13. 44
+13.32
+6.24
+12.84
r+5.76
r-5.04
+18.28
+19.31
p+17.90
+8.18
jfi>+10.24
+8.27
+13.81
-4.33
+4.13
October
November
December
p+11.52
p+5.04
May
-4.80
|fi> +13.20
+ 1 . 04
1
+11.67
+16 01
+18 00
+2.56
+2 32
+3 50
-I
110 80
+5.28
+13 . 68
+14.28
April
118 6
l
111 23
108 87
1 on
00
£0
f)f)
1. 70
(<L
87 20
76 #5
91 1?
91 29
1 65
95 81
85 55
1 66
192 56
1 7A
r63 600
116 62
81 06
80 46
[fr^>. ]_ £j]_
r71,OA4
80 43
93.95
62.32
[w->p86 276
U--^
96.96
54.58
56.72
1 56
76.92
(NA)
1968
(NA)
(NA)
p+10.09
1 59
1 57
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by $>»; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
[iS>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Aeries that reached their high values prior to 1^6? are as follows: Series 33, high value (24.02; reached Oct. 1963; Series
112, high value (+21.11) reached July 1966; Series 14, high value (52.86) reached Aug. 1963.
74
NOVEMBER 1968
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
QJ MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Bank
Reserves
93. Free n1
reserves©
114. Treasury
bill rate©
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March
16
;.
L 76
;. pp
*4-. cc
+236
A
April . .
May
June
4-1 7^
TM-f P
q #c
J -°P
q AA
July
August
September
+272
+298
+268
+269
+279
October
November
December
n,
. . n ,• n _, t
Outstanding Debt
Money Market Interest Rates
(Mil. dol.)
Year
and
month
LAGGING INDICATORS
+160
+270
+107
2Q
116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer
bond yields© bond yields© bond yields® installment
debt
(Percent)
C
CQ
ZL
5
re
• PP
q el.
/ j , yo^:
An coc
OU,5<i5
r^,/ci/CO
jl
OOA
r-|
7/ / QQ
f4,4^V
AO ,i\.(J(
O4, 1 ffl
7/
A^9
^4,oj<:
•71 ,QO;
f A- 7^-A-
An rtod
AQ qoA
oj),^<:o
nc -I i n
f P j -L47
17 c I, Qq
A; qno
AO oy y,
Aq ,j?uy
°J qno
5 • P7
c on
6 06
4 •P-L
L ?1
4 28
L L*,
6 06
6 30
6 33
4 86
A n°
y.
q QQ
^ .77
A T P
L £.9
6 53
6 87
6 93
q
/,#
4 76
5 01
CQ
47A
A
AA
nc
4. 7?
A QQ
(Percent)
L-\ -\ Li~i
01,1C)/'
CO
A£
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential©
loans, 35
cities©
£n A7C,
*7q QZ.O
3 An
rto
3 .ov
^ yo
jj .oA
A7
nq 7;. A
3 . p*c
3 • rr
2P
AO
4
4
qc
5 OP
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages
( ? ,Urij
nc. 777
5 1Q
A
?0
76 088
fiT^k 5 A A
|£>5.44
A
?A
7n ^O^i
Aq ? py^
°.3 coo
Aq 707
A
A?
76 889
(Percent)
A Ao
A iq
D.lj)
A ;
o.4o A
A QC
OOP
6 • OQ
^v
QC
5 •7P
5
QC
'VP
A ; ;
0.44
6 en
• 51
A CQ
O.pj)
A An
A AQ
AA #A ^
A Ac
c; oA
6 • 77
r r
A AT
1968
January
February
March
+Wi
*5
5 18
5 16
29
77 287
A«; ^1A
4 97
5 14
6 57
6 57
6 80
A.
+38
-315
ZL
31
77 85^
Ac /.en
5 39
4 54
78 A.19
65 789
April
May
June
-413
-326
-341
5.36
(5>5.62
5 54
6 79
7.00
lu--5» 7 -02
|tj^*> ' u*
5 28
5 40
5 2?
A 3A
78 961
67 844
BT^> 4 54
79 571
July
August
September
-226
r-190
r-132
5.38
5.10
5.20
6.91
6.54
6.69
October
November
December
p-186
5.33
6.88
08
4 50
80 203
67 391
68 016
5.09
5-04
5.09
4 33
4.21
4.38
80 885
68,753
69,217
5.24
4.49
W^>
*+• J^r
(NA)
jg>p70,175
6 78
6 83
A 9A
69 739
81,738
E> 82,427
A rtl
6 36
6 84
CNA)
C9
|H> ro^
fu —-^ 7
JH>6.89
;
7 .4-c9
7QC
OP
79rt
7 PQ
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45 r and 93)r current low values are indicated by
[8>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
series reached its high value (-431) in Oct. 1966.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected
Indicators by Timing
Q| COMPOSITE INDEXES: INDICATORS ON THE NBER SHORT LIST1 (JANUARY 1948=100)
Year
and
month
810. Twelve leaders, reverse trend
adjusted 2
(Series 1, 4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29,
31, 113)
820. Five coinciders, estimated aggregate
economic activity
(Series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
830. Sixlaggers
(series 44, 61,62,67,71, 72)
1967
January
February .
March
265.5
263.0
263.4
300.4
299.9
301.2
353.1
351.9
352.3
April
May
June
264.1
265.0
269.4
300.9
300.6
302.8
352.7
352.1
353-7
July
August
September ... .
270.6
275.0
274.9
304.5
307.6
305.7
354.5
354.1
356.4
October
November
December
277.6
380.8
285.9
304.8
312.3
317.1
357.7
359.9
364.4
1968
January
February
March
.. .
282.1
286.2
267.9
319.0
322.3
325.4
370.2
374.5
376.2
April
May
June
287.2
289.3
293.6
326.4
329.5
331.5
383.2
385.9
388.6
July
August
September
295.6
296.5
299.5
334.2
335.2
337.4
390.2
395.9
398.2
P304.4
P340.3
P399.4
October .. . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
•'•All series on the short list except series 54, 200, and 205 are included.
2
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
76
NOVEMBER
1968
BCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories:
percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Percent)
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
416. Adequacy of
mfrs.' capacity:
percent considered
inadequate less
percent considered
excessive
(Percent)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
58.00
98.6
99.2
97.8
98.0
100.7
101.2
131.2
134.0
135-3
137.5
70.0
72.7
75-5
78.1
1
1
14
19
26
47
45
46
42
99.0
102.9
101.2
103.1
99.9
135-0
135-6
137.4
140.7
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
99.8
102.9
(NA)
100.2
102.5
(NA)
145-2
149-5
152.3
83-8
85.6
86.9
22
22
(NA)
(NA)
60.10
61.25
100.6
62.80
99.7
61.65
61.50
101.5
100.1
102.6
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
60.90
62.70
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
64.90
62.75
a64.90
a65.15
35
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Current family income of households compared
to income a year ago
a. Percent of
households re- i
porting no change
in family income
(Percent)
b. Percent of
households reporting a higher
family income
(Percent)
c. Percent of
households reporting a lower
family income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial changes in
income of households
a. Mean probability of an
increase in
family income
(Percent)
b. Increase
less
decrease
(Percent)
c. Mean probability of a
decrease in
family income
(Percent)
430. Number
of new car
purchases by
households
435. Index of
consumer
sentiment
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
(First Q
1966-100)
1966
8.3
7.6
8.3
7.4
100.0
95.7
91.2
88.3
7.0
6.5
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
7.5
7.9
9.1
95.0
92.4
92.9
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2
35.4
32.9
34.2
33.3
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.6
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0
11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
1.
01
9.9
11.2
10.2
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0
1918.
18.
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5-8
6.5
5.5
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the
book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Anticipated purchases for January-June 1969-
NOVEMBER 1968
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing'
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade y
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade 3
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D446. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 2
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
77
76
69
63
72
77
77
69
63
64
56
53
67
73
68
64
76
76
70
65
75
80
81
73
30
31
26
25
25
26
26
23
42
43
38
43
65
64
60
62
30
30
29
38
50
48
51
53
42
41
43
49
61
63
65
64
16
16
16
16
21
21
21
19
57
57
58
60
66
64
62
41
46
43
47
59
57
46
58
63
63
65
72
71
68
14
19
17
21
19
17
19
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
65
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
55
21
71
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade 2
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade 2
D462. Manufacturing s
D464. Wholesale trade 2
Anticipated
D466. Retail trade"
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
48
49
46
47
32
37
38
38
49
47
59
55
32
38
47
41
41
43
55
52
30
35
43
36
57
52
63
56
36
44
51
56
57
67
61
26
39
51
50
36
31
30
29
30
31
26
25
44
45
52
56
50
44
39
44
41
40
44
46
48
43
36
39
47
49
59
64
51
46
38
47
49
59
67
74
53
52
44
57
i?
26
31
34
31
57
59
62
52
58
55
57
49
51
57
49
52
50
52
62
64
64
It
55
75
75
75
57
62
69
72
74
58
68
Actual
(4-Q span)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
39
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
32
56
50
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the
book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Net diffusion indexes: percent rising less percent declining (placed at terminal quarter).
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
2
78
NOVEMBER
1968
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.1
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
b. Second
anticipations
a. Actual
expenditures
(Percent)
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
car load ings
c. First
anticipations
(Percent)
480. Change in
freight carloadings ®
D480. Freight carload ings ©
(Percent)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Mil. of cars4-Q span)
1966
First Quarter
Second Quarter. ....
Third Quarter
Fourth quarter
66.7
66.7
11.1
50.0
25.0
43.8
-25.0
31.2
12.5
43.8
43.8
50.0
11.1
-38.9
-33,3
22.2
0.0
-16.7
- 11
1 .
0.0
6.2
5.6
16.7
-11.1
33-3
-22.2
(NA)
27.8
11.1
38.9
27.8
-5.6
61.1
11.1
47-4
79.0
68.4
57.8
+28
+18
+21
+1
-15.8
-36.8
-79.0
-15.8
57.8
5.2
57.8
47.4
-51
-88
(NA)
47.4
26.4
47.4
36.8
47.4
47.4
15.8
5-2
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-130
-91
1968
First quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
-21
+26
+52
P+136
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; a p" f preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Net diffusion indexes: percent rising less percent declining (placed at terminal quarter).
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
79
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts ©
512. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
(Mil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
+361
+376
+349
2,617
2,605
2,548
920
855
904
235
196
252
2,256
2,229
2,200
April
May
June
+427
+410
+350
2,653
2,547
2,577
793
1,005
961
215
220
218
2,226
2,137
2,227
July
August
September
+376
2 585
907
219
o ci.q
2 638
2 208
+L2L
##7
92 A
00 f)
pon
1 or
2 ,.LO
October
November
December
+196
+310
+78
2 39A.
2 691
2 603
829
#71
993
January
February
March
+176
+171
+171
2 785
2 773
2 455
909
1 007
964
21 5
260
252
2 609
2 602
2 612
April
May
June
+248
2 888
2 720
2,759
917
1 047
241
237
223
p A;.n
2 752
2 839
July
August
September . .
+139
246
245
+A.30
0£
O
;#
Of)C>
O T Q£
^,-J-70
2O&p
,j50<i
poj.
pec
p cor
<:, ;x;>
1968
-32
-80
989
+282
2 803
2,916
3,246
r988
P914
r)249
2 664
2 827
2 964
-63
2 594
(NA)
(NA)
2 657
+88
October . . .
November
December
914
1969
January
February
March
April .
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. ..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NOVEMBER 1968
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance
basis
525. Liquidity balance
basis1
522. Official settlement
basis
(Mil. dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official settlements
basis 2
(Mil. dol.)
1966
-2,138
-1,402
-1,435
-1,463
-1,917
-1,425
+99
1,508
1,309
1,134
1,130
-505
-522
-802
-1,742
-1,764
-806
+247
-1,082
1,293
1,269
1,359
848
-1,798
-1,791
-2,161
-2,590
-3,057
-2,075
-1,112
-1,930
-680
-160
P+35
-552
+1,523
P+-439
356
P492
(NA)
-1,036
p-652
(NA)
P+1,031
(NA)
-630
-93
-301
-333
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-116
+692
-409
-442
-1,031
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-908
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
liabilities to
all foreigners 3
(Mil. dol.)
532. Liquid
534. U.S.
and certain
official renonliquid lia- serve assets 4
bilities to
foreign official agencies3
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and services movements and military grants
Income on investment, military
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted
transactions, other serv., total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
29,200
29,225
29,444
29,783
16,060
16,361
15,853
16,044
15,026
14,958
14,876
14,882
10,528
10,645
10,912
11,059
9,020
9,336
9,778
9,929
7,188
7,179
7,369
7,440
6,036
6,263
6,567
6,675
3,340
3,466
3,543
3,619
2,984
3,073
3,211
3,254
29,261
30,202
31,379
33,302
16,296
17,420
17,820
19,397
13,855
14,274
14,649
14,830
11,371
11,377
11,513
11,496
10,078
10,108
10,154
10,648
7,661
7,703
7,626
7,478
6,686
6,605
6,541
7,159
3,710
3,674
3,887
4,018
3,392
3,503
3,613
3,489
33,058
P33,365
(NA)
18,399
Pl6,975
(NA)
13,926
p403
!,6
11,860
p!2,478
(NA)
11,504
pll 986
(NA)
7,924
8,302
p8,845
7,86?
8,322
p8,575
3,936
p4,176
(NA)
3,667
P3,693
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
^•Series 520 minus series 250.
2
Series 522 minus series 250.
3
Amounts outstanding at the end of quarter.
^Reserve position at the end of quarter.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItO
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Income on investment, military transfers and other services (components of series 540 and 541)
Year
and
quarter
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil. dol.)
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
Income on investments
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Receipts
from
549. Payments
for
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
1,478
1,537
1,587
1,648
476
479
556
563
379
389
411
411
637
674
672
674
200
219
205
205
872
923
962
979
1,283
1,321
1,338
1,355
999
997
1,021
1,038
1,594
1,556
1,827
1,882
560
560
575
598
421
384
417
424
704
841
925
725
335
336
245
323
1,072
1,065
1,098
1,104
1,360
1,398
1,398
1,389
1,056
1,037
1,015
1,062
1,742
pi 916
(NA)
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
660
p695
(NA)
442
421
P
773
P769
(NA)
306
P362
(NA)
1,110
Pl;143
(NA)
1,446
Pl,477
(NA)
1,124
pi,086
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital movements including errors and omissions
Year
and
quarter
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
+52
+38
-113
+110
695
1,002
872
1,054
+173
+520
+107
+109
+357
+14
+81
+30
-1,122
"1,054
-783
-772
+169
+419
+238
+438
+64
+70
+12
+104
653
651
902
815
+133
+329
+520
+34
+259
+199
+476
+332
-1,190
-995
-911
-1,101
+527
+409
-409
-279
+256
374
pl?034
(NA)
+700
+1,075
P+933
+385
+81
p+296
-1,046
p-428
(NA)
+310
p+221
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOVEMBER 1968
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and expenditures
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Defense indicators
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
264. National
defense purchases, current dollars
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
2,296
2,140
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
648. New or647. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
00
-i:U2
148*.i
159 '.3
7o!o
6,518
6,595
6,343
April
May
June
-13 '.3
i4s!a
161 '.5
72 '.1
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
July
August
September
-12*.9
152.2
165 !
i
72.9
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
October.
November
December
-12'.2
156^4
168 ! 6
74.6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,846
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
-3.6
166 '.6
175'.i
76.B
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
l!6o
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
171 '.8
181 [9
79*.6
6,765
7,441
6,929
2,161
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
pl£L.'9
r!84.*9
r79.*6
7,313
8054
(NA)
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.67
3.91
r3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
4,022
(NA)
P4.38
P2.32
p4,042
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June . .
-10.2
July
August
September
p-3^0
October . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ltd*
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| P R I C E MOVEMENTS
Consumer price indexes
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
781. All items
782. Food
783. Commodities less foods
784. Services
750. All commodities
58. Manufactured goods
757. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm products
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
January
February
March
114.7
114.8
115.0
114.7
114.2
114.2
107.3
107.6
107.8
125.5
125.9
126.3
106.2
106.0
105.7
106.4
106.4
106.3
112.8
111.7
110.6
102.6
101.0
99.6
April . . .
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
113.7
113.9
115.1
108.4
108.7
108.9
126.6
127.0
127,4
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.6
110.0
110.7
112.6
100.7
102.4
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
116.0
116.6
115.9
109.1
109.4
110.0
127.7
128.2
128.7
106.5
106.1
106.2
106.8
106.8
107.1
113.1
112.1
112.7
102.8
99.2
98.4
October .
November . .
December
117.5
117.8
118.2
115.7
115.6
116.2
110.6
111.1
111.1
129.1
129.6
130.1
106.1
106.2
106.8
107.1
107.3
107.6
111.7
110.9
97.1
96.4
98.9
January
February
March
118.6
119.0
119.5
117.0
117.4
117.9
111.2
111.5
111.9
130.8
131.3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.4
113.3
112.9
99.0
101.3
102.1
April
119.9
June
120.3
120.9
118.3
118.8
119.1
112.2
112.5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
112.8
113.6
114.6
102.1
103.6
102.5
July
August
September
121.5
121.9
122.2
120.0
120.5
120.4
113.2
H3.5
113.9
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
H5.9
114.9
115.3
103.9
101.4
102.8
October . . .November
December
122.9
120.9
114.7
136.3
109.1
110.0
114.4
101.2
1967
May
97.6
in. 5
1968
May
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NOVEMBER
1968
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
QH ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
205. Actual value
206. Potential level
(Ann. rate, bit. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItO
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant ( 1958) dollars
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
648.6
653.3
659.5
667.1
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
-11.0
-9.4
-9-3
-10.5
665.7
669.2
675-6
681.8
663.1
66Q.6
676.2
682.9
-2.6
+0.4
+0.6
+1.1
692.7
703.4
r712.3
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.1
-7.0
-9.0
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
2 ANALYTICAL RATIOS
|
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
Year
and
month
(Percent)
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
(Ratio)
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
(Ratio)
Revised1
1967
January
February
March
854. Ratio,
853. Ratio,
production of personal saving to disposbusiness
equipment to ablepersonal
income
consumer
goods
(1957-59=100)
(Ratio)
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural jobopenings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
859. Real
spendable avg.
wkly. earnings,
nonagri.prod.
or nonsupv.
workers
(1957-59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing©
(Percent)
0)
87.1
1.57
1.58
1.59
3.51
3-50
3.46
r!26.0
r!27.6
r!25.6
0.074
0.138
0.131
0.127
127.8
2.41
2.42
2.43
78.23
77.91
77.89
6.6
April
May
June
85 '.6
1.59
1.59
1.57
3.53
3.50
3.48
r!24.3
rl24.6
r!23.3
0.068
0.123
0.119
0.115
128.9
2.42
2.42
2.43
77.65
77.79
77.91
6.3
July
August
September
&i.3
1.58
1.56
1.57
3.54
3.40
3-48
r!23.1
r!21.7
122.3
0.074
0.114
0.119
0.118
129 '.5
2.43
2.44
2.43
78.18
78.23
78.51
6.i
84*.7
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.A4
3.39
rl!9.4
r!22.2
rl!9.9
0.078
0.108
0.118
0.119
136 !o
2.43
2./i4
2.45
78.02
78.42
78.09
5*6
p84^9
1.55
1.54
1.53
3.37
3.36
3.39
121.2
119.6
118.3
0.071
0.129
0.122
0.129
1 l 9
3!
2.47
2.46
2.48
77.77
78.79
78.64
5^5
p84.8
1.55
1.54
1.52
3.41
3.36
3.28
117.9
118.0
117.8
0.075
0.141
0.142
rO.131
132!4
2.47
2.48
2.48
78.14
78.81
79.25
5.7
rp$3.6
1.52
1.54
pl.52
3.17
3.38
3.24
rl!7.1
rll6.5
rll6.8
rC.063
0.125
0.132
0.135
(NA)
2.48
2.48
r2.49
79.00
79.07
r79.74
5*4
(NA)
(NA)
pl!7.0
P2.49
P79.30
. .
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August . .
September .
October . . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
pO.132
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
NOVEMBER 1968
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB(17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1967
January
February
March . .
69.0
7.1
81.0
11.9
9.5
9.5
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
April
May
June
40.5
28.6
64.3
16.7
38.1
31.0
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65.7
53
41
July
August
September
71.4
59.5
76.2
76.2
61.9
40.5
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
October
November
December
28.6
71.4
45.2
81.0
69.0
14.3
60.0
54.3
74.3
71.4
71-4
68.6
41
41
1968
January
February
March
14.3
90.5
21.4
57.1
64.3
64.3
51.4
55.7
50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
r53
11.9
90.5
73.8
r33.3
r85.7
P95.2
40.0
54.3
51.4
68.6
68.6
P78.6
r71
P59
April . .
May
June
. .
July
August
September
35.7
z-38.1
r90.5
51.4
44.3
r78.6
October
. . ..
November
.. .
December
P38.1
p65.7
P53
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NOVEMBER 1968
KCII
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (77 industries) O 1
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1-quarter span
1-month span
9-month span
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
April
May
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
78.7
66.0
October
November
December
59
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.3
74.5
46.8
80.9
70.2
78.7
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
85.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
53.8
61.5
73.1
63.8
51.1
53.2
38.3
51.1
74.5
P57
48.7
17.8
86.7
76.9
57.4
40.4
63.8
1967
January
February
March
1968
January. . ..
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October...November
December
1969
January
February
March
82.7
46.2
65.4
57.7
2
69.2
76.9
2
66.0
April
May .
June
juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on
the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
^•Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75 components thereafter.
2
Average for November 19, 20, and 21.
NOVEMBER
1968
BCD
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
9-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
37.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
47.7
54.5
47.7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
66.7
75.0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95.7
73.9
77.1
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
100.0
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
72.7
63.6
61.4
75.0
84.1
81.8
26.1
60.9
65.2
r87.0
P91.3
p87.0
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
r58.3
r66.7
p60.4
79.5
1 -month span
6-month span
C1)
1967
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
0)
January
February
March
75.0
41.7
36.7
43.3
43.3
41.7
r29.2
r20.8
r43-8
r45-8
April
May
June
38.3
40.0
60.0
35.0
43.3
36.7
r52.1
rl6.7
r50.0
r29.2
r41.7
July
August
September
46.7
60.0
46.7
43.3
63.3
73.3
r47-9
r75.0
r54.2
October
November
December
73.3
83.3
36.7
73.3
33.3
83.3
r37.5
63-3
71.7
53.3
91.7
80.0
80.0
37-5
70.8
75.0
56.7
70.0
75.0
33.3
75.0
r76.7
41.7
70.8
75-0
r66.7
r70.8
July
August
September
60.0
75.0
r46.7
P71.7
45.8
P75.0
October....
November
December
1969
January
February
March
p63.3
41.7
56.2
83.3
29.2
r27.1
rU.7
1968
January
February
March
. .
April
May
June
r83.3
75.0
83.3
63.0
r58.7
r34.8
P 82.6
April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r"' indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @|.
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Ipsue/1 page iii.
NOVEMBER 1968
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1968
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
July
June
September
August
OctoberP
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x
(Average weekly hours)
-
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
40.1
(12)
40.7
(21)
+
40.9
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
r42.1
r41.3
r42.1
+
r42.4
+
+
+
r42.7
r40.6
r39.7
_
-
r40.9
r38.4
+
r36.5
0
43.3
+ 38.5
+
+
+
41.1
38.5
41.3
36.4
43.0
+
+
40.8
38.1
41.5
36.1
43.1
+
+
-
41.1
38.9
41.1
36.0
42.9
38.1
41.6
42.5
41.7
38.8
+
38.3
41.7
42.8
41.8
38.1
+
41.9
40.2
42.9
40.5
39.7
40.7
37.9
41.6
36.2
42.7
38.2
41.6
42.2
41.4
38.7
-
40.4
34.1
40.6
35.0
42.0
+
+
+
-
r40.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
40.7
38.0
41.2
36.3
43.0
41.0
39.5
41.1
39.6
38.5
+
+
+
+
r42.1
r41.0
41.9
40.5
r41.9
r40.5
r39.2
-
37.8
41.4
42.7
40.3
38.1
+
+
o
_
o
r41.6
r40.7
40.6
r41.9
r40.2
41.7
+
o
o
+
41.5
40.3
41.2
41.8
42.0
41.7
-
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
r40.7
(38)
_
(36)
41.3
40.7
40.7
41.9
41.9
41.7
42.0
40.3
42.6
40.5
39.2
40.9
40.1
40.0
41.7
42.3
40.4
+
40.9
o
_
o
+
-
_
o
+
-
-
o
(74)
41.6
40.7
41.1
42.0
42.1
41.9
42.0
40.6
42.5
40.6
39.7
41.9
40.5
40.9
41.7
41.8
41.5
42.1
40.2
42.4
40.8
39.5
o
o
o
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
40.9
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
_
o
+
+
o
-
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
o
(90)
0
+
o
-
38.2
41.7
42.3
41.7
38.7
+
0
+
+
-
0
-
38.4
r41.7
42.1
41.4
37.8
+
+
+
+
r41.1
(90)
40.8
41.7
r42.0
r42.4
+ r41.6
41.0
(38)
o
+
+
41.6
40.9
40.7
42.1
41.6
42.3
+
-
42.3
40.3
42.4
40.7
39.5
-
40.8
37.6
41.1
36.5
43.1
38.6
41.9
42.7
41.7
38.4
+
+
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+ 28,005
(50)
Percent rising of 35 components
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
4,244
2,262
- 27,373
(40)
- 26,701
(54)
3,900
2,014
4,464
"
331
+
575
263
+
453
_
2,819
2,775
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
4,244
2,396
3,867
1,755
2,824
...
+
3,859
1,791
2,917
3,103
4,923
4,766
439
698
340
636
294
+
+
666
374
493
476
431
322
+
+
631
339
+
+
393
+
+ 30,450
(66)
r4,092
+ 1,682
+
~
(79)
3,491
1,400
386
404
+r28,264
(44)
2,755
+
4,810
4,665
_
+ 27,212
(51)
...
2,941
4,658
+
-
o
+
+ 26,808
(51)
o
-
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
- 27,172
-
+
4,399
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,184
414
+
(NA)
I
661 748
+
330
257 +
t
-
(NA)
(NA)
+
453
I
(NA)
*
o
+
508
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
90
NOVEMBER 1968
ItCIt
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
May
April
March
June
July
September
October
3,668
August
(NA)
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Millions of dollars)
3,366
3,530
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
"
701
+
710
+
941
919
+
+
"
608
+
+
+
...
...
794
+
+
7,326
8,089
Motor vehicles and parts, total
Complete aircraft t
+
+
+
3,725
3,313
648
...
+
+
o
Instruments total
Lumber total
...
+
+
809
955
946
+
1,085
6,259
6,632
+
7,343
+
+
+
+
+
+
Stone clay and glass, total
Other durable goods total
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
PM57
...
...
+
-t-
+
+
+
+
+
+ 101.34
(87)
+ 103.76
(83)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
...
+
+
+
0
...
...
r6,879
+
+
+
....
+
!
567 (NA)
+
...
+
...
+ 1,093 + (NA)
+
...
+
7,362
+
+
+
...
3,501
684
+
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
3,476
+
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS 2
(1941-43 - 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
-
89.09
(21)
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals. . .
.
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobi les
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
+ 95-67
(95)
+ 97.87
(84)
+ 100.53
~t~
+
+
+
+
+
Percent rising of 76 components
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
-f+
+
+
.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
...
...
-
+
+
98.11
(18)
(49)
...
+
+
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
-\+
+
+
...
...
+
+
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
+
+
...
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
...
-t+
+
...
...
...
+
+
+
...
...
-
-
...
-h
...
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
- 100.30
(80)
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
3
.Data are
Data are
representing
3
Based on
2
seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table £3.
76 components through August 1968, and on 75 components thereafter.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCD
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
March
May
April
July
June
November l
October
September
August
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59-100)
+ 100.1
-
98.3
-
96.1
-
95.6
-
94.4
+
94.8
+
96.1
+
(58)
.414
.052
-^
97.5
-t-
101.1
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
(46)
(54)
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.) ..
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
. ...
+
.520
+
.062
- 26.136
+ 1.500
.139
.125
.421
+
.063
- 25.471
- 1.462
+
.140
+
.125
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
.249
.198
+ 1.640
+
.159
- 10.743
+
.174
+
.046
.244
+
.198
- 1.619
.157
- 10.711
+
.174
+
.047
(54)
.388
(46)
(50)
- 24.802
- 1.428
+
.141
+
.126
f
-396
o .056
- 22.562
- 1.419
+
.141
+
.131
+
.403
.054
- 21.202
- 1.141
o
.141
+
.139
.241
+
.202
+ 1.631
.151
+ 10.775
+
.186
+
.047
.240
+ .204
o 1.632
.139
- 10.764
+ .208
o
.047
+
.298
o
.204
- 1.573
.137
4- 10.894
4.208
.044
.056
(65)
-
,.393
.052
- 20.548
+ 1.415
o
.141
+
.145
-f 22.307
+ 1.452
.141
.143
+
+
.312
+
.202
+ 1.597
+
.160
o 10.971
.310
.202
+ 1-576
-*.144
+ 10.971
+
.212
+
.046
-
.211
.044
+
186
(69)
.410
+
.054
+ 22.460
+ 1.500
f
.140
.149
.302
+
.203
-t- 1.631
+
.168
- 10.948
+
.220
+ .045
(77)
+
.411
•+ .055
+ 24.515
+ 1.663
.140
+
.166
.274
+
.207
+ 1.638
+
.176
- 10.915
+
.231
+
.049
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
+
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (12).
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25) ... .
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10) .
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5) ..
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19)... .
Milwaukee (18).
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
190
(26)
-H
...
193
(64)
+
-t-
...
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
+
+
+
...
...
+
-t+
...
+
-
...
"t~
~t~
...
...
4"
-t+
...
...
+
•t•t-
...
...
...
44-
. ..
...
+
...
+
+
...
...
...
-
...
-t
...
-t-t-
...
-t+
...
+
~t~
...
...
...
4+
-t-
...
-t
...
...
...
...
...
+
-t+
+
+
+
+
+
-t+
-j-
...
...
...
-t-t-
...
...
-f-
•••
...
+
-t+
-t-
-f-t+
+
...
+
+
...
...
+
...
...
+
~i~
+
-)-
...
+
• ••
+
...
-j-
...
•••
««.
+
+
+
+
178
(66)
-t-
-t+
-t-
+
(64)
-t+
+
-t-
...
...
+
+
+
+
201
(40)
(57)
-t-
...
+
(53)
4-
...
+
214
-t
+
+
190
+
+
•t+
+
+
+
(51)
...
. .
-h
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (11)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
ids
-t-
+
-j-
+
+
-t-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for November 19, 20, and 21.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2
92
NOVEMBER 1968
ItO
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
April
March
May
August1"
July
June
Octoberp
September
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
+
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment.
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products ... .
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servi-ce and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+
o
"
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
o
+
o
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
67,656 +
(58)
67,755 +
(57)
191
528
385
463
1,038
1,062
1,346
1,311
1,429
2?8
340
1,181
74
867
1,243
534
662
607
117
422
308
609
3,330
4,332
3,632
10,367
3,311
10,415
2,718
9,335
192
520
387
517
1,054
1,059
1,332
1,310
1,425
275
335
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
o
+
o
+
o
+
1,191
68
868
1,251
536
663
602
117
A26
311
632
3,313
4,331
3,641
10,368
3,323
10,402
2,717
9,371
+
+
o
+
+
-
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
67,792 +
(70)
193 +
516
389
514
1,054
1,060
1,331
1,312
1,419
275
338
1,185
73
871
1,256
538
665
603
118
527
312
631
3,245
4,381
3,655
10,394
3,334
10,425
2,721
9,413
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
o
+
+
+
68,039 +
(75)
198
514
392
517
1,042
1,070
1,334
1,305
1,438
275
339
+
+
68,170 +
(60)
200
517
389
516
1,044
1,068
1,322
1,308
1,478
272
344
o
+
+
+
1,185
74
876
1,249
542
665
610
119
433
301
+
638
+ 3,189
+ 4,346
o 3,680
+
10,437
+ 3,350
+ 10,498
- 2,788
+ -9,468
+
+
+
+
+
o
1,204 73 +
877
1,265 542 o
664 +
609 +
118 +
435
312
-H
632
+
0
+
- 3,174
+ 4,336
+ 3,679
+ 10,407
o 3,335
+ 10,467
+ 2,795
+ 9,437
+
+
7
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
68,314 + r68,389 +
(75)
200
518
393
518
1,023
1,066
1,331
1,313
1,415
278
344
1,187
77
878
1,245
545
666
614
18
1
438
307
o
+
+
638
3,195
4,358
+
3,683
+ 10,498
+
3,376
+ 10,548
2,751
+ 9,519
(63)
(47)
r!98
517
+
r394
515
- rl,009
* rl,074
- rl,328
T rl>3!6
+
rl,438
r277
r341
- rl,182
r75
r874
+ rl,253
r543
+
r667
+
615
0
118
-°
438
0
r307
r637
+ r3,246
+ r4,372
+
r3,691
+ rlO,531
+ r3,385
o r 10, 546
- r2,7l6
- r9,5H
68,525
+
0
+
-
+
+
t
+
o
+
o
+
+
7
+
0
+
~
+
+
+
+
+
199
517
393
519
1,007
1,089
1,332
1,308
1,457
279
338
1,191
70
874
1,257
543
669
617
117
441
307
592
3,261
4,368
3,701
10,568
3,398
10,569
2,701
9,561
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical .
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
+ 163.0
(75)
- 162.5
(42)
+ 164.2
(71)
+ 165.4 + 165.6
(46)
(75)
143^3 + us! 5 + 148!6
161.4 + 165.0 + 166.0
+ 140.2
+ 166.6
+
-
- 180.2
+ 187.3
+
177.6
- 183.8
- 176.9
- 182.8
- 175.3
- 181.4
-
163.9
(58)
+ rl64.4 + 165.0
(60)
(67)
- rl45.6
- 165.8
-
122.9
164.2
- 1-119! 9 +
+ 1-165.6 +
- 176 .'6 + 177 .'7 + 177.8
+ 184.2 + 185.5 + 186.5
+
182.6 + 183.2
+ 180.4
- 181.2 + 181.3 - 179.2
+
179.1
187.7
181.6
182.6
+
+
~
+
- 13l!6
+ 125.0
+
-
+ 173-7
- 159.9
+ 174.1 + 178.9
_ 158.8 + 160.6
146 !l + 146^4
123-9 - 122.7
+
+
r!80.3
rl89.9
180.9
r!84.4
- 145 ii - r!43.'9
- 122.5 _ 121.5
+
_
145 .'8
112.5
+ r!48!9
+ P117.5
- 177 .*7 + 160.9 +
+
+
177.5
161.3
+ 178.2
+ 161.6
175^3
161.0
+
+
+
+
+
124
168
183
192
181
186
138
149
(NA)
178
160
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate Industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
2
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
Directions
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
March
May
April
June
July
September
August
October
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products.
Apparel products
Leather and products
+ 149.9
+ 148.5
+ 113.7
- 146.3
+ 148.9
+ 114.6
+ 147.2
+ 149.6
+ 118.0
+ 149.8
+ 151.3
- 115.8
- r!49.6
- r!50.4
- r 107.0
- r!49.3
- p!48.6
+ p!09.4
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
+ 159.2
+ 146.8
+ 159^5
- 145.8
+ 161! i
-r
+ 149.8
- 149.6
+ r 164.1
- 149.5
- rl62.5
+ rl51.1
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+ 215.0
+ 136.1
+ 215.7
+ 215.2
+ 137.3
- 209.4
+ 216.6
+ 139.9
+ 214.3
+ 219.4
+ 140.6
+ 215.8
-t- r222.3
- r!39.5
+ r217.5
- r220.4
+ r!39.7
+ p218.8
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+ 134^5
- 122.9
+ 135.3
- 1 21
1 .
- 134^6
+ 120.0
+ 135^5
+ 122.8
- 135ll
+ 123.4
+ r!35.3
- p!23.1
+ 126.0
+ 126.0
- 124.4
- 124.8
- 120.4
-t- 126.6
+ 126.7
+ 127.9
- 126.6
+ r!29.2
- 121.8
+ r!29.5
+ 108." 7
- 141.2
+ 139.9
- 137.1
- 1 li
3l
- 135.0
- 13o!s
+ 136.9
+ 134^1
+ 137.1
+ r!34.5
+ r!37.5
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+ r!44.9
+ p!50.0
+
(NA)
(NA)
+
162.9
+ P165.5
- rl51.0
+ 207.4
+ p22103
+ plU-5
o
p209
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
P135
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-
P158
(NA)
p!51
+
(NA)
- r!33.5
- P134.4
p!45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
rl21.2
r!27o6
r!31.5
p!24.9
p!36.4
p87
P127
p!30
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 2
(1957-59-100)
All manufacturing industries
+ 108.9
+ 109.1
(68)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables.
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
o 109.1
+ 109.4
+ 109.7
+ 109.9
(73)
- 109.5
(68)
(61)
(64)
(73)
(70)
+
110.0
(80)
+
+
+
-
113.9
103.6
107.3
105.4
+
+
+
-
115.8
103.8
107.4
105.0
+
+
+
-
117.0
104.0
107.8
104.9
+
+
-
117.2
103.9
108.3
104.8
+ 119.2
+ 104.1
+ 108.4
o 104.8
+
+
+
o
120.5
104.2
108.7
104.8
+
+
o
+
122.6
104.4
108.7
106.7
+
+
+
o
124.9
104.5
108.9
106.7
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
+
+
o
+
133.2
106.8
115.3
116.5
-t+
+
131.0
107.1
115.5
116.8
o
+
124.1
106.7
115.5
117.0
+
+
+
123.6
107.5
115.7
117.2
+
o
+
+
+
+
121.7
107.9
115.8
117.6
- 121.5
+ 108,4
+ 116.7
+ 117.9
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
+ 112.7
- 102.6
o 104.3
+ 1 15
1.
+ 113.0
+ 103.0
o 104.3
+ 1 18
1.
+ 114.2
- 102.9
- 104.2
o 1 18
1.
+ 114.3
- 102.7
+ 104.5
o 1 18
1.
o 114.3
o 102.7
- 104.2
- 1 15
1.
+ 114.6
+ 102.9
+ 104.4
+ 1 16
1.
- 114.5
+ 103.1
- 104.1
+ 1 19
1.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
121.9
108.8
117.5
118.2
115.0
103.2
106.5
112.0
o
+
+
112.9
105.0
103.1
+
o
+
112.8
105.2
103.0
+
+
-t+
113.6
104.9
103.5
+
+
-r
+
114.6
104.7
103.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ H5.3
+ 105.4
o 104.1
+ 92.5
-t- 1 10
1.
- 114.4
- 105.3
+ 104.7
+ 92.7
+ 1 17
1.
+
o
+
+
105.2
o
+
+
o
+
105.2
+
+
+
+
105.5
+
+
-
104.7
+
+
+
+ 105.2
97.8
99.3
+ 101.0
+ 122.3
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
89.3
109.1
98.6
99.5
99.7
H7.9
89.3
109.3
98.8
100.3
99.7
118.3
89.7
109.4
98.7
100.5
99.8
118.8
89.9
1 01
1.
98.5
103.1
99.9
118.7
+
+
+
122.3
107.6
115.7
117.3
H5.9
105.2
103.9
90.4
110.7
104.9
98.2
102.8
100.7
119.5
114.9
105.3
104.1
90.7
110.9
o 104.9
- 98.1
- 101.0
- 100.6
o 119.5
105.1
97.9
100.9
100.7
120.7
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
94
NOVEMBER 1968
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
March
May
April
June
Augustr
July
October p
September
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
+
28,145 - 27,675
(83)
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
+
+
+
+
5,626
2,11?
2,689
26?
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
+
+
+
528
405
621
274
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
o
+
+
843
440
948
254 +
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
+
+
+
+
(26)
+
-
5,658
2,099
2,680
-
266
28,132 + r28,451 + r28,802 +
(61)
(65)
(63)
2,698 +
249 +
r5,773
r2,114
2,725
271
+
+
+
+
+
521
385
599 +
245 +
516
366
634
257
+
+
+
+
527
380 o
662 +
278 +
837
422
932
259
+
882 +
415 +
874 +
259 +
884
429 +
904
266 +
859
446 +
899 +
282
4,921 - 4,744
386
373
2,054 _ 2,041
921 +
934
588
554
+
5,027 +
372 +
2,042 +
5,219 385 o
2,055 956 +
578 +
+
+
5,717 +
2,119 -
+
497
380
580
249
o
o
+
+
959
589
r5,720
r2,068
2,907
278
5,213
385
2,050
967
596
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
29,037 - r28,941 (59)
28,789
(83)
(35)
P5,739
P2,l60
p2,724
P269
+
+
'+
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
519
380
665
292
P494
P365
p650
P283
+
+
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
855 +
475
924 +
273
p879
p440 +
+
P931
P269 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,347 +
389
2,073 972
589 +
P5,558
P387 p2,028 +
P969 +
P595 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,779 2,139 +2,861 280
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p - preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
2
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
95
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer
index of consumer
dom, index of
prices©
consumer prices© prices©
138. Japan, index
of consumer
prices©
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
781. United
States, index of
consumer prices©
133. Canada,
index of consumer
prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
15
1
15
1
15
1
17
1
17
1
18
1
129
129
129
123
123
123
141
141
142
153
154
154
137
138
138
April
May
June
115
16
1
16
1
19
1
19
1
120
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
138
138
139
July
August
September
16
1
17
1
17
1
121
121
121
130
130
129
124
123
123
142
143
143
152
153
156
139
139
140
October
November
December
18
1
18
1
18
1
121
121
122
129
131
131
123
123
123
144
145
145
159
159
160
140
140
140
1968
January
February
March
19
1
19
1
120
123
123
123
132
133
133
125
125
125
147
147
147
161
161
162
140
140
140
April
May
June
120
120
121
124
124
124
136
136
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
141
141
141
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
136
136
126
(NA)
149
149
150
162
162
168
140
140
141
October
November
December
123
126
(NA)
(NA)
167
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(NA)
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NOVEMBER
1968
ItCII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Qj INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial
production
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
Year
and
month
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
2
( )
1967
January
February
March
158
157
r!57
166
166
166
129
129
129
156
154
156
150
149
150
298
295
304
153
153
154
20?
211
209
April
May
June
r!57
156
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
153
152
156
149
150
148
305
312
317
154
153
154
212
212
211
July
August
September
r!56
158
157
169
170
170
129
129
128
156
156
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
155
154
156
211
198
211
October
November
December
157
160
162
169
3-73
174
129
131
134
159
160
161
156
158
171
338
346
349
157
159
164
215
21?
216
1968
January
February
March
161
162
163
172
172
173
133
134
135
162
164
167
157
159
165
347
354
351
160
161
164
218
220
222
April
May
June
162
164
165
175
176
r!79
133
135
136
167
rll6
133
164
167
183
362
372
373
164
154
163
222
224
225
July
August
September
166
164
rl64
rl?8
p!78
(NA)
135
167
167
pl69
166
182
pl76
382
r38l
P390
rl65
pl68
(NA)
222
(NA)
October .
November
December
pl65
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
$?
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
....
July
August
September
October
November
December
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
n
"e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ NOVEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItUI
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Qj STOCK PRICES
143. Canada, index
19. United States,
of stock prices©
index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks ©
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices©
146. France, index
of stock prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices©
index of stock
prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
147. Italy, index
of stock prices©
(1957-59=100)
1967
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
228
142
141
127
April
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
231
231
129
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
10
1
156
175
182
231
215
209
129
133
139
October
November
December
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
198
143
139
135
January
February
March
193
184
181
189
177
171
202
208
213
107
104
13
1
205
209
207
203
208
209
134
130
133
April
May
June
194
198
204
183
185
187
235
246
252
17
1
11
1
107
216
219
226
220
229
235
136
135
133
July
August
September
203
199
205
194
192
198
265
272
279
103
105
105
230
231
224
243
254
276
136
138
P136
210
P215
203
p206
270
p273
rp!05
p!02
rp226
p223
275
p264
rp!31
p!27
January
February
March
.
. .
1968
October . . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NOVEMBER
1968
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
19 67
196 8
Series
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
5, Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
101 9 138 5 145 8 112 7 96 0 94 9 79 3 An Q 107 9
87.3 96.5 118.7 99 '4 108 6 105 3 106 1 97 3 101 0
14. Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2
81.8 101.5
100.3
4 Nonagricultural placements, all industries1
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies3.
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment
loans4
89.6
84 1 73 6
95 0 89 5
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
138 5
96 5
85 0
80 2
100.3
101 5
88 7 103 4 111 7 106 8 105 9 110 1 117 0 116 1 94 2
79 4
93 1 120 5 103 4
96.3
96.6
79.4
84 1 83 5
-129
+279
-285
+262
+32
92 2
90 9 100 1 102 2 107 6 112 8 104 2 100 9
QQ 1
107.2
Sept.
84 1 101 8
99 5 87 3
98.2 110.1 99 6 97 3 119 8
97.9
105.4
-388
Aug.
+50
110.1
+13
92.6
+36
91.8
+148
i no 7
+36
Q7 7
-64
Ql
L
99.0
-129
+279
QO
QPl Q
/
99.0
107.2
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
99.9 101.5
79.0 101.6
99.2
75.6
99.4 101.1
99.6 99.5 101.8
65.1 100.9 103.6 100.4 204.0
99 2
62.8
99 1 100 3
98.1 109.3
99 3
99.0
99 6
79 0
101 5
101 6
616. Defense Department obligations, total
625. Military contract awards in U S
87.6
80.2
98.1
91.5
91.5
93.0
79.2
80.4
98.0
96 8
97.0 107 3
90 5 109 4
98 3
95 4
87 6
80 2
98 1
91 5
112. Change in business loans5
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
99.8 100.6 100.1
94.6 80.7 84.1
99.4 100.3 100.1 99.9 100 4 100 0 99 7 99 6 99 8
85.5 95.3 108.4 119.2 102.5 99.9 111.7 112 1 105 9
99 7
94 6
100 6
80 7
93.9 104.1 100.2
+6
• ••
100.3
• ••
508i. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6
100.2 100.3
103.8 102.1
-15
99.3
94.2
99.6
88.6
91.8 151.9
91.8 188.0
107.4 100.6 100.3 100.2
+17
93.1
-9
94.1
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For adescription of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains histor cai data for Business Conditions Digest series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new
series which have been added to Business Conditions Digest, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding
Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables Al-9, Bl-7, Cl«2, Dl-4, El-3, and Fl«3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from
data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
810.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
COMPOSITE INDEX OF TWELVE LEADERS t REVERSE
(JANUARY 1943=100)
100.4
101.8
100.6
Sept.
TREND
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
ADJUSTED
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
100.8
96.8
1948..
1949..
1950..
100.0
98.4
95.7
98.8
93.3
91.3
89.6
87.8
92.2
93.6
94.5
91.4
87.4
90.2
93.4
90.6
96.2
97.7
99.8
102.5
105.9
108.7
113.7
120.1
119.8
120.3
121.4
123.3
97.9
105.7
117.9
121.7
110.8
1951..
1952..
1953..
128.6
119.3
126.2
126.5
119.0
125.8
125.5
118,9
126.0
122.9
118.5
124.9
123.1
117.7
124.4
119.6
120.2
122.3
117.2
119.4
123.6
116.2
120.0
121.2
117.1
123.8
118.0
117.6
122.9
117.3
118.2
123.3
115.4
118.8
124.6
115.5
126.9
119.1
126.0
121.9
118.8
123.9
116.8
121.1
120.9
118.2
123.6
116.1
120.9
120.6
121.7
1954..
1955..
1956..
115.5
138.3
151.6
116.8
141.5
151.0
116.2
143.2
152.0
118.9
143.4
153.6
119.9
144.3
152.0
121.7
146.0
150.7
123.4
148.0
149.5
124.3
149.2
152.3
127.1
151.4
151.8
129.1
150.8
152.5
130.5
151.4
154.4
133.4
152.4
154.4
116.2
141.0
151.5
120.2
144.6
152.1
124.9
149.5
151.2
131.0
151.5
153.8
123.1
146.7
152.2
1957..
1958..
1959..
153.4
142.2
168.6
153.4
139.3
171.4
153.3
140.3
175.3
151.7
140.5
178.0
152.8
144.0
178.6
153.4
148.0
178.7
153.4
151.5
177.9
153.1
154.9
175.7
150.8
157.4
176.0
147.2
160.7
175.6
146.1
164.7
174.3
144.0
165.6
178.9
153.4
140.6
171.8
152.6
144.2
178.4
152.4
154.6
176.5
145.8
163.7
176.3
151.0
150,8
175.8
I960..
1961..
1962. .
180.5
171.6
196.2
179.8
173.9
198.6
177.0
176.7
199.1
177.8
179.3
200.0
177.5
182.0
199.0
177.0
184.2
196.3
176.3
185.7
197.7
175.0
188.9
198.7
175.3
188.7
199.6
173.4
191.8
200.1
172.3
194.9
203.1
171.2
196.2
204.0
179.1
174.1
198.0
177.4
181.8
198.4
175.5
187.8
198.7
172.3
194.3
202.4
176.1
184.5
199.4
1963..
1964..
1965..
204.9
224.1
247.8
206.7
226.2
249.5
208.3
227.4
252.5
209.8
229.9
254.0
212.5
231.8
255.2
213.1
231.9
255.9
214.2
233.8
253.0
215.1
234.0
258.5
217.1
237.4
258.5
220.7
238.0
262.1
219.8
241.0
265.4
222.0
245.2
269.9
206.6
225.9
249.9
211.8
231.2
255.0
215.5
235.1
258.3
220.8
241.4
265.8
213.7
233.4
257.3
1966. .
1967..
272.7
265.5
276.1
263.0
277.4
263.4
273.8
264.1
271.7
265.0
272.7
269.4
271.9
270.6
268.6
275.0
265.2
274.9
265.0
277. 6
264.0
260.8
264.0
285.9
275.4
264.0
272.7
266.2
268.6
273.5
264.3
281.4
270.3
271.3
820.
98.1
COMPOSITE INDEX
100.3
87.2
87.1
87.5
99.6
90.5
98.3
92.7
98.2
OF FIVE COINCIDERS, ESTIMATED AGGREGATE ECONOMIC
(JANUARY 1943=100)
96.6
ACTIVITY
99.5
99.0
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
820.
1945. .
1946. .
1947. .
101.3
103.0
103.9
104.2
103.4
102.4
99.5
101.3
94.5
93.7
92.4
93.2
94.7
90.2
93.0
93.9
98.6
94.9
93.4
92.4
94.8
101.2
103.5
106.2
110.9
115.1
114.8
116.1
116.2
119.6
97.6
103.6
113.6
117.3
108.0
125.3
131.1
147.0
126.5
131.1
147.0
127.0
131.5
148.0
126.8
130.8
147.8
125.9
128.7
148.3
126.4
133.5
146.7
126.0
137.6
144.9
126.4
139.9
143.9
127.4
141.4
140.4
128.7
143.3
136.8
124.4
130.2
145.3
126.8
131.1
147.6
126.1
133.3
146.6
127.5
141.5
140.4
126.2
134.0
145.0
135.2
143.0
159.7
133.5
145.4
159.4
133.2
147.3
161.5
132.8
149.7
161.0
133.6
151.1
161.7
133.0
153.2
156.9
132.8
153.1
162.7
133.3
155.1
164.6
134.6
155.8
166.5
137.5
157.1
165.9
139.6
158.2
167.5
134.7
143.2
159.3
133.2
149.4
161.4
133.0
153.8
161.4
137.2
157.0
166.6
134.5
150.9
162.2
167.4
159.2
169.0
169.7
155.5
171.2
170.4
153.8
173.9
169.0
151.9
177.7
168.8
152.8
180.3
169.1
154.9
181.4
169.7
156.8
180.4
170.6
158.5
176.1
168.2
160.1
175.6
166.8
161.3
174.8
164.1
165.6
176.1
161.8
166.8
183.0
169.2
156.2
171.4
169.0
153.2
179.8
169.5
158.5
177.4
164.2
164.6
178.0
168.0
158.1
176.6
I960..
1961..
1962..
185.5
177.8
194.8
186.5
177.3
197.3
184.2
178.9
199.0
185.9
179.7
200.6
185.8
181.7
201.3
184.8
184.4
201.3
184.3
185.5
202.7
183.7
187.5
202.6
183.6
187.3
203.9
182.0
189.7
204.3
180.4
192.8
205.0
177.9
194.5
205.3
185.4
178.0
197.0
185.5
181.9
201.1
183.9
186.8
203.1
180.1
192.3
204.9
183.7
184.8
201.5
1963. .
1964..
1965. .
206.2
221.5
243.8
206.7
223.3
244.5
208.5
224.0
248.6
210.0
226.7
249.1
210.9
229.0
252.1
212.9
229.3
254.2
214.3
232.4
258.1
214.8
233.7
258.8
215.5
234.8
262.1
217.3
232.7
263.8
216.8
237.9
268.0
219.7
242.4
272.4
207.1
222.9
245.6
211.3
228.3
251.8
214.9
233.6
259.7
217.9
237.7
268.1
212.8
230.6
256.3
1966..
1967. .
275.4
300.4
279.0
299.9
283.0
301r2
283.6
300.9
284.4
300.6
288.8
302.3
290.0
304.5
291.9
307.6
293.1
305.7
295.6
304.8
297.6
312.3
299.4
317.1
279.1
300.5
285.6
301.4
291.7
305.9
297.5
311.4
288.5
304.8
1948. .
1949..
1950..
100.0
99.0
99.5
99.6
99.9
98.5
97.5
96.4
96.1
96.7
99.9
1951, .
1952..
1953..
123.2
128.8
143.3
124.6
130.6
145.6
1954..
1955..
1956..
135.4
141.3
158.9
1957..
1958..
1959..
NOTE;
The series on this page are introduced in this issue.
100
103.9
103.7
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.
103.8
103.3
102.0
NOVEMBER 1968
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Conditions Digest series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new
series which have been added to Business Conditions Digest, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding
Guide,for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables Al-9, Bl-7, Cl-2, DM, El-3,and Fl-3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from
data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
830,
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
C O M P O S I T E I N D E X OF S I X
July
Aug.
Oct.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
L A G G E R S ( J A N U A R Y 1948=100)
1945. .
1948..
19V?..
1950..
100.0
96.9
101.8
110.1
96.9
103.6
108.3
97.4
104.1
106.5
98.0
104.4
104.8
99.7
105.5
102.5
101.0
107.8
100.9
102.4
109.3
99.1
105.8
110.3
98.0
108.9
110.7
97.5
113.6
111.6
96.1
118.7
110.9
96.4
121.5
101.8
109.8
97.1
104.7
104.6
99.6
109.1
99.3
105.7
111.1
96.7
117.9
106.7
102.6
105.1
1951..
1952..
1953..
125.5
150.6
160.5
129.6
152.7
163.1
133.2
153.5
164.1
137.6
153.3
165.9
141.1
153.6
166.9
143.2
155.5
168.4
144.8
154.1
169.2
146.3
153.6
169.9
146.3
154.1
170.1
147.3
155.8
170.6
147.5
158.3
168.4
150.8
158.3
167.2
129.4
152.3
162.6
140.6
154.1
167.1
145.8
153.9
169.7
148.5
157.5
168.7
141.1
154.4
167.0
1954..
1955..
1956..
164.9
151.3
179.1
162.3
152.1
181.3
159.8
153.0
184.0
153.2
153.9
188.0
156.0
156.6
189.6
154.7
159.2
192.4
153.8
162.0
196.9
151.7
166.3
197.5
150.7
167.7
198.5
150.6
170.4
201.0
152.4
174.2
201.7
152.3
176.3
203.5
162.3
152.1
181.5
156.3
156.6
190.0
152.1
165.3
197.6
151.8
173.6
202.1
155.6
161.9
192.8
1957..
1958..
1959..
205.1
206.7
192.4
205.9
202.6
206.6
207.9
207.5
208.9
194.6
199.1
189.9
186.3
204.9
213.5
183.9
211.5
215.1
185.6
212.8
212.6
186.5
214.2
212.4
188.6
214.6
210.8
191.2
215.6
205.9
203.0
202.3
210.9
184.7
208.8
193.5
208.1
190.3
202.1
213.2
184.7
211.0
211.9
188.8
214.8
209.8
199.6
194.9
I960..
1961..
1962..
217.3
216.6
219.2
220.7
221.5
214.0
221.6
223.6
226.3
212.1
223.5
210.9
225.0
225.4
211.1
227.1
223.9
211.0
228.0
221.7
212.4
229.2
220.1
213.3
229.7
219.1
215.0
231.2
219.5
216.4
230.9
217.6
217.5
231.0
219.8
215.2
220.2
225.1
211.4
225.2
221.9
212.2
229.0
218.7
216.3
231.0
221.4
213.8
226.4
1963..
1964..
1965..
230.4
244.2
229.8
246.3
231.5
238.3
258.9
286.5
240.2
260.4
245.3
263.6
299.0
230.3
245.8
267.9
232.0
249.6
275.0
255.1
261.5
291.3
242.8
260.5
294.7
242.8
249.5
275.4
236.1
254.6
283.8
236.5
248.7
272.3
233.3
250.6
277.4
235.2
267.1
230.6
247.0
270.4
231.1
266.1
284.0
295.0
235.4
253.0
280.5
1966..
1967..
303.6
353.1
307.9
351.9
311.9
352.3
316.5
352.7
322.2
352.1
329.4
353.7
334.3
354.5
339.0
343.2
356.4
344.5
357.7
349.7
359.9
350.5
364.4
307.8
352.4
322.7
352.8
338.8
355.0
348.2
360.7
329.4
355.2
111.1
193.2
215.1
219.9
17.
251.9
281.7
354.1
P R I C E PER U N I T OF LABOR COST INDEX ( 1957-59=1 OO) 1
191.7
205.4
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1 945. .
1946. .
1947..
103.1
103.3
104.7
104.4
103.0
102.7
103.7
104.3
104.5
105.3
106.4
105.9
103.7
103. A
104.2
105.9
104.3
1948..
105.7
101.4
102.7
104.6
102.2
103.1
105.5
1949. .
1950. .
106.7
102.7
101.9
104.2
106.7
99.4
104.8
107.2
100.1
106.7
106.5
99.5
109.8
106.0
101.3
112.1
105.6
101.8
112.6
105.2
101.4
110.5
103.4
102.3
109.8
103.7
101.7
112.5
105.7
102.1
102.6
106.5
100.2
105.2
106.0
100.9
111.5
104.1
101.8
110.9
105.6
101.2
107.6
1951..
1952..
1953..
115.1
104.0
100.6
114.5
103.6
99.9
113.4
102.8
99.9
111.0
102.4
99.8
110.5
101.1
100.6
108.6
100.6
100.0
106.4
102.3
101.9
105.1
102.7
101.4
105.1
101.9
101.2
105.5
101.3
99.2
104.8
101.8
98.1
104.0
100.2
96.8
114.3
103.5
100.1
110.0
101.4
100.1
105.5
102.3
101.5
104.8
101. 1
98.0
108.7
102.1
100.0
1954..
1955..
1956..
97.2
100.8
101.8
97.2
100.5
101.6
96.7
101.0
101.1
97.7
101.9
101.7
98.6
101.6
102.1
98.6
102.3
101.5
99.0
102.8
97.9
99.2
103.1
100.8
100.1
104.1
101.8
98.4
104,2
100.9
97.5
102.0
101.2
98.8
101.8
100.3
97.0
100.8
101.5
98.3
101.9
101.8
99.4
103.3
100.2
98.2
102.7
100.8
98.2
102.2
101.1
1957. .
1958..
1959..
101.0
96.4
99.8
101.0
95.1
100.8
101.0
94.2
101.3
100.4
94. 8
102.6
101.3
97.1
103.6
101.2
98.7
103.7
101.6
99.8
101.8
101.6
99.8
100.6
101.2
99.1
100.6
99.4
100.3
99.5
98.1
100.3
98.8
97.5
100.1
101.2
101.0
95.2
100.6
101.0
96.9
103.3
101.5
99.6
101.0
98.3
100.2
99.8
100.4
98.0
101.2
I960..
1961..
1962..
102.2
98.5
100.7
101.3
98.7
100.7
100.9
98.7
100.7
100.2
99.9
100.2
100.1
100.3
100.3
100.6
100.8
99.9
100.3
101.4
100.5
100.5
101.9
100.5
100.4
102.0
100.8
99.7
100.9
100.1
99.3
100.7
100.1
99.7
101.1
99.6
101.5
98.6
100.7
100.3
100.3
100.1
100.4
101.8
100.6
99.6
100.9
99.9
100.4
100.4
100.3
1963. .
1964. .
1965. .
99.6
102.0
102.9
99.9
101.3
102.9
100.4
101.1
103.1
100.8
101.5
103.3
101.4
101.8
103.4
102.3
101.4
104.3
102.0
101.9
104.5
101.6
101.3
104.2
101.1
100.1
103.4
101.0
100.0
103.1
100.4
101.6
103.4
100.7
102.0
104.6
100.0
101.5
103.0
101.5
101.6
103.7
101.6
101.1
104.0
100.7
101.2
103.7
100.9
101.3
103.6
1966..
1967..
105.0
102.1
105.0
101.9
105.2
101.2
104.2
101.4
104.9
100.8
104.7
100.3
105.2
100.3
104.7
100.2
104.4
99.6
104.1
100.0
103.5
100.2
103.6
100.9
105.1
101.7
104.6
100.8
104.8
100.0
103.7
100.4
104.5
100.7
101.1
NOTE: Series 830 is introduced in this issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii
Series 17 is revised "beginning with December 1 6 .
9 4
1
Ratio,, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (series 58) to index of labor cost per unit of <output (series 62).
NOVEMBER 1968
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Conditions CTigest series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new
series which have been added to Business Conditions Digest, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding
Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published, Current data are shown in tables Al-9, Bl-7, Cl-2, Dl-4, El-3, and Fl-3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from
data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data presented herein.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
II
IV
III
6 la. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, all
industries —actual expenditures (arm. rate,
Annual
Average
bil. dol.)
Year
Annual
1
II
III
IV
6lb. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, all
industries — second anticipations as a percent
of actual (percent)
1947. ..
1948. ..
1949...
19.70
22.35
21.05
20.30
21.80
19.70
21.05
21.95
18.85
21.35
22.25
17.80
20.60
22.09
19.35
1947...
1948...
1949...
102.0
100.9
97.6
90.4
95.4
100.5
92.4
96.1
97.6
95.6
95.7
101.1
1950. ..
1951...
1952...
18.40
23.75
27.05
19.25
25.45
26.55
21.05
26.50
25.55
23.30
26.55
26.70
20.50
25.56
26.49
1950...
1951...
1952...
103.5
98.7
100.6
99.7
100.2
101.5
100.2
100.6
103.3
98.1
102.4
103.9
1953. ..
1954...
1955...
27.85
27.45
25.65
28.10
26.90
27.20
28.80
26.85
29.65
28.55
26.20
31.45
28.32
26.85
28.49
1953...
1954...
1955...
101.1
100.2
101.6
101.4
98.9
102.4
98.3
98.7
91.2
99.6
101.0
98.1
1956...
1957...
1958...
32.80
36.90
32.40
34.50
37.05
30.30
35.85
37.75
29.60
36.45
36.25
29.95
34.90
36.99
30.56
1956...
1957...
1958...
101.2
100. 0
105.1
100.7
100.8
103.5
101.1
98.7
102.4
102.5
103.3
100.0
1959...
1960. ..
1961...
30.60
35.15
33.85
32.50
36.30
33.50
33.35
35.90
34.70
33.60
35.50
35.40
32.51
35.71
34.36
1959...
1960...
1961...
101.8
100.4
101.6
99.4
102.1
101.0
102.8
102.8
100.3
101. 0
100.4
101.4
1962...
1963...
1964. ..
35.70
36.95
42.55
36.95
38.05
43.50
38.35
40.00
45.65
37.95
41.20
47.75
37.24
39.05
44.86
1962...
1963...
1964...
101. 1
102.7
96.9
100.0
100.9
99.7
98.4
99.9
97.6
101.1
98.9
97.8
1965...
1966. . .
49.00
58.00
50.35
60.10
52.75
61.25
55.35
62.80
51.86
60.54
1965...
1966. . .
99.7
98.6
98.5
99.2
97.0
100.6
99.1
99.7
6lc. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, all
industries —first anticipations as a percent
of actual (percent)
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (bil. dol.)
Total
1947...
1948. ..
1949...
116.2
96.9
97.9
91.9
100.2
103.6
89.8
94.1
105.6
90.6
96.9
101.7
1947...
1948...
1949...
43.5
50.1
50.9
45.4
51.6
48.1
46.7
53.6
48.5
50.6
52.6
46.1
186.2
207.9
193.6
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
103.3
93.3
100.7
99.2
99.0
99. B
94.5
102.8
107.0
93.6
104.9
106.9
1950...
1951...
1952...
48.4
66.2
65.5
52.9
65.5
65.6
60.8
64.0
66.6
61.5
64.9
72.5
223.6
260.6
270.2
1953.. .
1954. ..
1955...
105.2
102.0
100.8
100.0
101.3
100.9
99.3
99.3
97.3
96.5
98.1
94.6
1953...
1954. . .
1955...
75.4
70.4
76.3
76.1
69.7
79.5
75.5
69.2
80.2
71.2
71.0
81.9
298.2
280.3
317.9
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
96.3
102.8
109.6
102.3
102.6
107.4
102.5
100.4
102.4
104.3
102.5
103.5
1956...
1957...
1958...
81.6
88.0
80.0
83.3
86.1
79.2
81.0
86.7
82.3
86.5
83.9
85.7
332.4
344.7
327.2
1959. . .
i960...
1961...
99.7
97.9
103.1
98.6
101.7
101. 0
100.1
104.5
99.7
105.2
104.1
101.4
1959...
1960...
1961...
89.2
94.6
38.6
94.3
92.8
91.4
89.6
91.8
93.6
89.3
90.2
96.9
362.4
369.4
370.5
1962...
1963...
1964...
102.2
102.0
95.8
99.1
101.6
98.2
98.3
99.9
97.0
100.0
99.9
96.6
1962...
1963...
1964...
99.0
101.8
109.3
99.0
104.6
111.2
99.2
106.2
112.9
100.2
107.7
114.8
397.4
420.3
448.2
97.8
97.8
98.6
98.0
96.3
100.7
95.7
101.2
1965...
1966. . .
119.0
131.2
121.6
134.0
124.3
135.3
127.4
137.5
492.3
538.0
1965...
1966. . .
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories: percent
considered high less percent considered low
(percent)
End of year
value
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive (percent)
1959...
1960...
1961...
10
24
17
12
27
13
4
23
8
15
23
8
15
23
8
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
12
12
14
12
13
10
13
15
10
12
11
10
12
11
10
1962. ..
1963...
1964. ..
• ••
30
...
...
3?
1965...
1966...
13
11
12
14
13
19
12
26
12
26
1965...
1966...
36
47
41
45
NOTE:
The series on this page are introduced in this issue.
...
• ••
;;;
End of year
value
•• •
.. .
...
•• •
34
•• .
32
37
...
32
37
43
46
43
42
•• .
43
42
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
November 1 6
98
102
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
Tliis appendix contains historical data for Business Conditions Digest series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new
series which have been added to Business Conditions Digest, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding
Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables Al-9, Bl-7, Cl-2, Dl-4, El-3, and Fl-3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from
data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data presented herein.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
II
III
IV
412. Manuf acturers ' inventories, total book value
(percent)
Annual
End of year
value
Year
Annual
1
II
IV
III
430. Number of new cars purchased by households
(percent)
Average
1947...
1948. . .
1949...
23.6
26.2
29.4
24.7
27.0
28.3
25.6
28.3
27.0
25.9
28.5
26.3
25.9
28.5
26.3
1959...
1960...
1961...
6.2
5.0
5.6
6.5
4.4
5.8
6.3
5.1
4.4
5.4
5.6
5.3
6.1
5.0
1950...
1951. ..
1952...
26.4
33.8
40.2
26.8
36.5
40.2
28.3
38.3
40.4
31.1
39.3
41.1
31.1
39.3
41.1
1962...
1963...
1964...
5.5
6.8
6.9
6.1
6.5
8.0
6.1
6.3
8.1
6.7
6.6
6.9
6.1
6.6
7.5
1953. ..
1954...
1955...
43.0
43.0
41.9
44.0
42.1
42.6
44.7
41.4
43.8
43.9
41.6
45.1
43.9
41.6
45.1
1965...
1966...
7.9
8.3
7.7
7.6
7.8
8.3
8.4
7.4
8.0
7.9
1956. . .
1957...
1958...
46.5
51.7
50.8
48.3
52.1
49.6
49.5
52.4
49.4
50.6
51.9
50.1
50.6
51.9
50.1
1959. . .
1960...
1961...
cn. 7
DU /
co
53.9
53.5
54.4
53.4
51.8
54.6
54.0
cj • 7
J £. f
53.8
54.9
52.7
53.8
54.9
1962...
1963...
1964. . .
56.2
58.6
60.5
57.0
59.2
60.9
57.9
59.6
61.6
58.2
60.0
63.4
58.2
60.0
63.4
1965...
1966...
64.1
70.0
65.2
72.7
66.8
75.5
68.2
78.1
68.2
78.1
n
j c. • U
D44Q. New orders, manufacturing —actual (4-Q span) '
Average
1950...
1951...
1952...
...
•••
...
...
...
...
...
. •
. .
• ••
• *•
...
1953...
1954...
1955...
...
...
...
...
• ••
...
...
.* .
...
» »
• .
. •
...
...
• ••
...
...
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
30
-16
66
34
1
68
24
58
6
37
49
12
60
1960...
1961...
1962...
49
5
62
30
24
54
21
43
51
5
50
44
26
30
53
1963...
1964...
1965...
42
61
65
49
67
68
51
66
76
47
64
73
47
64
70
1966. . .
77
76
69
63
435' Index of consumer sentiment
(percent)
Average
NA
90.7
82.0
NA
NA
82.9
NA
NA
NA
86.2
80.8
87.0
NA
NA
NA
1955...
1956...
1957.. .
NA
NA
NA
99.1
98.2
92.9
NA
99.9
NA
99.7
100.2
83.7
NA
NA
NA
1958...
1959...
1960...
78.5
NA
98.9
80.9
95.3
92.9
NA
NA
NA
90.8
93.8
90.1
NA
NA
NA
1961...
1962...
1963. . .
91.1
97.2
94.8
92.3
95.4
91 .4
91.6
96.2
94.4
95.0
96.9
NA
94.8
94.8
1964. . .
1965. ..
1966...
99.0
101.5
100.0
98.1
102.2
95.7
100.2
103.2
91.2
99.4
102.9
88.3
99.2
102.4
93.8
1952...
1953...
1 954. . .
.• .
1956...
5.5
71
.• .
D440. New orders, manufacturing and trade —
anticipated (4-Q span) ^ s
Average
1957...
1958...
1959...
51
NA
61
53
16
63
37
22
63
42
44
64
46
NA
63
1960...
1961...
1962...
54
34
66
62
34
64
52
54
65
39
52
49
52
44
61
1963...
1964...
1965...
38
61
67
53
65
71
51
69
68
55
66
70
49
65
69
1966...
72
77
77
69
74
NOTE: The series on this page are introduced in this issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Net diffusion indexes: percent rising less percent declining (placed at terminal quarter),
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
T
s
November 1 6
98
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Conditions Digest series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new
series which have been added to Business Conditions Digest, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding
Guide,for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables Al-9, Bl-7, Cl-2, Dl-4, El-3, and Fl-3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicat*
ing unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from
data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data presented herein.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
II
Hi
IV
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade —actual
(4-Q span) 1 ' 2
Annual
Average
Year
1
II
III
Annual
IV
D442. New profits, manufacturing and trade —
anticipations (4-Q span) 1 ' 2
Average
1957...
1958...
1959...
18
-25
47
17
-15
57
NA
2
51
-9
20
45
NA
-4
50
1957...
1958...
1959...
37
NA
43
38
5
54
26
8
55
27
23
58
32
NA
52
I960.. .
1961...
1962...
36
~*4
46
17
5
43
5
24
41
1
35
35
15
15
41
1960...
1961...
1962...
46
21
55
50
27
58
48
48
57
31
46
42
44
36
53
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
29
49
57
36
56
60
41
58
61
41
58
66
37
55
61
1963...
1964...
1965. ..
35
54
61
44
61
67
43
63
66
51
62
69
43
60
66
1966...
63
64
56
53
59
1966...
67
73
68
64
68
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade —actual
(4-Q span) 1 , 2
Average
C444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade — anticipated
(4-Q span) 1 ' 2
Average
51
1957...
1958...
1959...
29
-20
65
34
-7
74
NA
17
64
4
35
57
NA
6
65
1957...
1958...
1959...
54
NA
68
58
17
74
44
22
72
49
43
73
NA
72
i960...
1961. ..
1962...
45
-2
61
26
15
57
17
40
55
3
45
51
23
24
56
1960...
1961...
1962...
60
37
73
67
33
69
62
63
73
43
63
57
58
49
68
1963...
1965...
42
59
65
48
66
69
52
67
74
50
67
73
48
65
70
1963...
1964...
1965...
44
64
70
63
71
74
57
73
75
61
71
78
56
70
74
1966. ..
76
76
70
65
72
1966. ..
75
80
81
73
77
D/^6. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade —
actual (4-Q span) 1 * 2
Average
1964. . .
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade —
anticipated (4-Q span)1,2
1957...
1958...
1959...
9
-19
11
6
-13
19
MA
-4
18
-2
-2
15
NA
-10
16
1957...
1958...
1959...
12
1960...
1961...
1962...
11
-6
12
7
-1
10
4
7
12
-1
6
10
5
2
11
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
9
10
20
11
15
2?
10
18
28
12
19
1966...
30
31
26
10
7
13
-1
12
6
-1
13
7
2
14
1960...
1961...
1962...
13
5
13
12
3
11
12
8
14
4
9
9
12
NA
10
6
12
27
10
16
24
1963...
1964...
1965...
8
10
17
10
13
17
9
14
18
10
16
18
9
13
18
25
28
1966...
25
26
26
23
25
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade —
actual (4-Q span) 1 ' 2
1957...
1958...
Average
Average
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade —
anticipated (4-Q span) 1 - 2
Average
26
-14
23
IB
-9
35
NA
-4
28
6
1
24
NA
-6
28
1957...
1958...
1959...
19
NA
14
18
-5
23
8
-5
26
11
4
23
14
NA
22
1960...
1961...
1962...
31
-1
27
19
0
23
11
13
23
7
12
22
17
6
24
1960...
1961...
1962...
19
5
21
19
6
26
17
14
24
9
11
15
16
9
22
1963...
1964...
1965...
21
27
36
25
31
42
24
34
45
26
30
46
24
30
42
1963...
1964...
1965...
11
20
28
19
26
29
16
26
27
20
26
33
16
24
29
1966...
48
49
46
47
48
1966...
32
37
38
38
36
1959. . .
NOTE: The series on this page are introduced in this issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
x
Net diffusion indexes: percent rising less percent declining (placed at terminal quarter).
s
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
November 1 6
9 8
104
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
TTiis appendix contains historical data for Business Conditions Digest series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for wtiich data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new
series which have been added to Business Conditions Digest, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series wtiich have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding
Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in4ab!es Al-9, Bl-7, Cl-2, DM, El-3,and Fl-3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from
data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data presented herein.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
Annual
1
III
Year
1
IV
D460. Manufacturing and trade —actual (4-Q span)1' ^
Average
II
Annual
IV
III
D460. Manufacturing and trade—anticipated (4-Q span) 1 ' 2
Average
1 9 5 7 ...
1958. . .
1959. ..
40
7
19
32
6
24
NA
12
23
24
-17
22
NA
10
22
1957...
1958...
1959...
40
NA
20
38
14
24
29
6
25
30
12
31
34
NA
25
1960. ..
1961.
..
1962. . .
15
2
9
11
0
6
9
9
5
4
7
6
10
4
6
1960...
1961...
1962...
27
10
16
29
10
15
17
11
14
12
10
6
21
10
13
1963. . .
1964. ..
1965. ..
.3
15
19
8
11
22
13
16
31
14
15
35
10
14
27
1963...
1964...
1965...
5
17
20
8
18
21
10
16
24
12
14
24
9
16
22
1966.
49
47
59
55
52
1966...
32
38
47
41
40
. .
D462. Manufacturing — actual (4-Q span)
Average
E>462. Manufacturing— anticipated (4-Q span) 1 ' 2
Average
1957...
1 9 5 8 ...
1 9 5 9 ...
39
5
16
29
4
20
NA
6
19
20
11
17
NA
6
18
1957...
1958. ..
1959...
38
NA
16
34
10
20
29
5
21
25
9
28
32
NA
21
1960. . .
1961.. .
1962. . .
17
3
8
10
-1
6
8
7
7
4
5
6
10
4
7
1960...
1961...
1962...
25
12
14
25
10
13
17
12
11
12
9
4
20
11
10
1963.
..
1 964. . .
1765. . .
1
13
15
7
9
22
10
13
29
10
13
30
7
12
24
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
6
14
17
8
17
19
11
16
22
13
14
24
10
15
20
1966. . .
41
43
55
52
48
1966. ..
30
35
43
36
36
D464. Wholesale tra de — actual (4-Q span) 1 '"
D464. Wholesale trade—anticipated (4-Q span) 1 ' 2
Average
Average
1957. . .
1958. ..
1 9 5 9 ...
47
9
24
42
9
28
NA
18
30
32
25
29
NA
15
28
1957...
1958. ..
1959. ..
43
NA
25
48
24
32
31
7
29
39
18
38
40
NA
31
1 9 6 0 ...
1961. ..
1 9 6 2 ...
14
2
10
12
2
5
7
8
1
3
8
8
9
5
6
1960...
1961...
1962...
30
10
18
37
10
17
19
12
18
12
11
7
24
11
15
1 -> 6 3 ...
1964. . .
1 9 6 5 ...
5
19
26
12
13
21
19
16
36
16
19
40
13
17
31
1963.
..
1964...
1965...
5
22
24
10
21
24
10
18
27
9
15
21
8
19
24
1966. . .
57
52
63
56
57
1966. ..
36
44
51
44
44
D466. Retail trade—actual (4-Q span) lj E
Average
D466. Retail trade—anticipated (4-Q s p a n ) l j r
Average
I ) o 7 ...
1 9 5 8 ...
1959. ..
?9
3
23
27
5
29
NA
15
25
16
18
18
NA
12
24
1957...
1958...
1959...
38
NA
15
32
10
25
20
5
24
29
4
32
30
NA
24
1 9 6 0 ...
1961. ..
1 '» 6 2 ...
7
10
16
1
3
12
14
9
7
7
9
10
7
8
1960...
1961...
1962...
25
10
14
21
10
14
11
10
10
14
5
10
18
9
12
1 9 6 3 ...
1964. . .
1965. ..
4
13
23
9
13
22
16
20
34
22
17
41
13
16
30
1963...
1964...
1965. ..
5
15
17
9
20
18
7
14
21
14
14
25
9
16
20
1 V 6 6 ...
56
57
67
61
60
1966. ..
26
39
51
50
42
0
NOTE: The series on this page are introduced in this issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
;Net diffusion indexes: percent rising less percent declining (placed at terminal quarter).
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
November 1 6
9 8
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
TTiis appendix contains historical data for Business Conditions Digest series extending back to 1945 or to the earliost date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new
series which have been added to Business Conditions Digest, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding
Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables Al-9, B1'7, Cl-2, DM, El-3, and Fl-3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from
data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data presented herein.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
Annual
11
111
• ••
Average
Annual
1
IV
D6la. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries —actual expenditures (percent)
1947...
1948...
1949. . .
Year
480.
II
IV
111
Change in freight carloadings (mil. of cars —
4-Q span)
75.0
-50.0
43.8
6.2
-75.0
12.5
25.0
-56.2
31.2
-6.2
-43.3
NA
25.0
-56.2
1946...
1947...
1948...
- 81
177
-154
-426
423
-45
156
15
-21
224
90
-143
-6.2
56.2
31.2
18.8
87.5
-62.5
81.2
50.0
-37.5
81.2
-6.2
43.8
43.8
46.9
-6.2
1949. ..
1950...
1951...
-203
-213
332
-271
-10
151
- 541
354
-42
-589
543
-78
1953.. .
1954. . .
1955. ..
37.5
-62.5
-43.8
18.8
-18.8
68.8
12.5
-37.5
75.0
-25.0
-12.5
100.0
11.0
-32.8
50.0
1952...
1953...
1954. ..
-34
-77
-241
- 291
209
-358
-178
129
-329
-60
-183
- 72
1956...
1957. . .
1958. ..
75.0
12.5
-100.0
62.5
6.2
-62.5
43.8
-12.5
-43.8
56.2
-50.0
0.0
59.4
-11.0
-51.6
1955. ..
1956. ..
1957. ..
77
155
- 74
235
94
-170
296
- 190
24
231
-27
-303
1959. ..
1960...
1961. ..
37.5
50.0
-43.8
62.5
43.8
-6.2
50.0
12.5
12.5
31.2
-31.2
18.3
45.3
18.8
4.7
1958...
1959. ..
1960. ..
-389
134
8
-426
321
- 146
- 325
-173
96
-80
-73
- 103
1962. . .
1963...
1964. . .
31.2
-18.8
43.8
37.5
31.2
25.0
31.2
50.0
68.8
-6.2
43.8
93.8
23.4
26.6
57.8
1961...
1962. ..
1963...
-279
125
-67
- 212
62
29
-26
-68
39
79
-96
44
12.5
66.7
50.0
66.7
66.7
11.1
50.0
50.0
44.8
48.6
1964. ..
1965...
1966...
4
47
28
-60
47
18
-9
25
21
24
20
1
1950...
1951...
1952...
1965...
1966...
D6lb. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries — second anticipations (percent)
Average
1958...
...
...
...
-18.8
NA
1959...
i960...
1961...
68.8
68.8
-25.0
75.0
43.8
6.2
68.8
43.8
25.0
43.8
-12.5
31.2
64.1
36.0
9.4
1962...
1963...
1964...
25.0
0.0
0.0
37.5
50.0
0.0
31.2
43.8
50.0
37.5
50.0
37.5
32.8
36.0
21.9
1965...
1966...
31.2
25.0
37.5
43.8
31.2
-25.0
68.8
31.2
42.2
18.8
D480. Freight carloadings — actual carloa dings
(4-Q span)
Average
NA
76.4
15.8
D6lc . Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries— first anticipations (percent)
1958.. .
1 9 5 9 ...
1960. ..
6.2
6.2
56.2
62.5
56.2
50.0
3K2
12.5
37l4
32.8
1961. ..
1 9 6 2 . ..
1 9 6 3 . ..
-31.2
18.8
-31.2
-6.2
12.5
43.3
6.2
6.2
56.2
25.0
43.8
25.0
- 1.6
20.3
23.4
1 9 6 4 . ..
1 9 6 5 . ..
1966. . .
6.2
18.8
12.5
43.8
62.5
43.fi
31.2
56.2
43. 8
37.5
56.2
50.0
29.7
48.4
37.5
D480. Freight carloadings— anticipations
(4-Q span)
...
89.4
79.0
64. 8
89.4
47.4
76.4
89.4
36.8
57. 8
-5.2
79.0
-26.4
26.4
36.8
-47.4
57.8
36.3
-26.4
89 .4
26.4
- 10.6
42.1
44.8
1 9 5 2 ...
1 9 5 3 ...
H 5 4 ...
5.2
57.3
-36.8
-26.4
47. 4
-47.4
s. 2
57. R
-47.4
36.8
-lb.8
-36.8
36. R
-42.1
1955. . .
1 956. . .
l')57.. .
57.8
100.0
26.4
89.4
47.4
36.3
79.0
47.4
-5.2
- 52.6
23.6
-26.3
1758...
1 9^9. . .
1960. ..
-26.4
26.4
79.0
-57.8
79.0
15. R
-79.0
57.8
36.3
5.2
68.4
57.3
- 39.5
57.9
47.4
36.8
26.4
15.8
-23.7
29.0
18.4
1961 . . .
1 •) b 2 . . .
i 963. ..
0.0
79.0
36.8
-15.9
79.0
26.4
79.0
39.4
57.8
47.4
79.0
36.8
27.6
31.6
39.4
47.4
26.4
5.2
52.6
15.8
29.0
1 9 6 4 ...
57. d
79.0
47.4
47.4
79.0
79.0
36.8
63.4
63.4
89.4
63.4
57.8
57.8
73.7
63.2
1 9 4 6 . ..
1 947. . .
1 948. . .
79.0
47.4
79.0
15.8
17.6
79.0
15.8
1949. ..
1950. ..
1951...
-15.8
-26.4
79.0
-26.4
36.8
26.4
-47.4
79.0
-15.8
-68.4
79.0
-36.8
-39.5
42.1
13.2
1949. ..
1950. . .
1911...
1952...
1953. ..
1954. . .
-15.8
5.2
-57.8
-57.8
57.8
-57.8
-26.4
57.8
-79.0
-15.8
-47.4
-15.8
-29.0
18.4
-52.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
26.4
26.4
-68.4
47.4
5.2
-57.8
47.4
-47.4
-36.8
47.4
-15.8
-89.4
42.2
- 7.9
63.1
1958...
1959. ..
1960...
-68.4
36.8
15.8
-79.0
68.4
-47.4
-36.8
5.2
-36.8
-26.4
-15.8
-36.8
1961. ..
1962...
1963...
-57.8
47.4
-15.8
-47.4
26.4
26.4
-26.4
15.8
47.4
1964...
1965. ..
1966. ..
57.8
5.2
47.4
36.8
5.2
47.4
68.4
26.4
15.8
106
The series on this page are introduced in this issue.
Average
100.0
68.4
53.0
68 . 4
-15.8
1946...
1947. ..
1948. ..
NOTE:
Average
1 965. . .
1 >66. . .
63.4
6a . 4
36.8
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
NA
92.0
57.9
5.2
73.6
65.8
23.7
November 1 6
9 8
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
810, 820, 830. Composite Indexes
The composite indexes combine selected indicators in
each timing classification into weighted indexes representative
of the class. Thus, series that usually lead in the business
cycle are combined into one index, those that roughly
coincide with the cycle into another, and those that lag into
a third.
The series selected for inclusion in each of the indexes
are homogeneous in a special sense; namely, they measure
related aspects of business change, are sensitive to business
cycles, and experience similar timing behavior during
cyclical fluctuations. While the series included in each
index are heterogeneous in that they are not expressed in a
common unit, the index nevertheless provides a simple
measure of a significant complex of economic activities
which experience business cycle fluctuations with roughly
similar timing. From this point of view, some of the best
known aggregates are heterogeneous. For example, gross
national product includes the change in inventories, a leading
indicator; consumption expenditures, a coincident indicator;
and investment expenditures, a lagging indicator. The indexes
presented here concentrate upon homogeneity in cyclical
behavior.
The practice in index number construction is to utilize
weights that are directly related to the purpose of the measure
being compiled. For example, in constructing an index of
market output, value-added or value-of-product weights are
used, but where indexes of output are constructed to determine
man-hour requirements, man-hour weights are utilized.
Similarly, in constructing a forecast of, say, gross national
product by means of an econometric model, a number of
variables expressed in heterogeneous units are weighted by
coefficients that, directly or indirectly, express their estimated effect upon GNP. The analogous procedure here is
to apply weights based upon the components series' value
in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in
aggregate economic activity. Such weights, in the form of
scores ranging up to 100, were developed for each of the
series, and are applied in constructing the amplitude-adjusted
indexes.
The procedure used in constructing these indexes allows
for the fact that some indicators, such as new orders,
typically move in wide swings while others, such as the
average workweek, experience narrow (but nevertheless
significant) fluctuations. Each indicator is therefore adjusted
in such a way that, apart from its weight, it has the same
opportunity to influence the index as any other indicator.
The indexes themselves are adjusted in a similar manner,
with the result that their swings are of the same order of
magnitude on the average (namely 1.0 percent per month)
and can readily be compared. For example, if the most
recent monthly increase in an index is 2.0, it is rising
twice as fast as its average rate of change in the past;
whereas, if the increase is 0.5, it is rising only half as fast
as the historical average.
The index for the leading group is also subject to a
further adjustment, designed to make its long-run trend the
same as that of the index of coincident series. The major
difference that remains is in cyclical timing, with the
leading index typically moving first, the roughly coincident
index next, and the lagging index last. The series included
in each index are shown on chart B7. (For further information about these indexes, see "Composite Indexes of
Leading, Coinciding and Lagging Indicators, 1948-67," by
Julius Shiskin and Geoffrey H. Moore, Supplement to National
Bureau Report 1, National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., January 1968, and the references cited therein.)
61 a, b, and c. Business Expenditures for New Plant and
Equipment
Expenditures for new plant and equipment cover all private
business except farming, real estate, the professions, and
nonprofit and other institutions. Expenditures charged off as
current expense are excluded. New plant and equipment
expenditures refer to all costs (both replacement and expansion) chargeable to fixed asset accounts and for which
depreciation accounts are ordinarily maintained. Included in
the totals are expenditures for new construction, machinery,
and new equipment (automobiles, trucks, and other transportation equipment). The figures do not include expenditures
for land and mineral rights, maintenance and repair, used
plant and equipment, and expenditures made in foreign
countries.
Two anticipated estimates of plant and equipment expenditures and one actual figure are published for each quarter.
The first anticipated estimate is published in the month
preceding the quarter to which it refers. The second
anticipated estimate is published in the closing month of
the quarter to which it refers. Actual data are published
during the third month after the end of the quarter.
Source: Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
D61 a, b, and c. Business Expenditures for New Plant and
Equipment (Net Diffusion Index.)
These series are based on the 18 industries which make
up the aggregate series (see series 61, above). Data are the
percent of the 18 industries reporting (or anticipating) an
increase in plant and equipment expenditures less the percent
reporting (or anticipating) a decrease in plant and equipment
expenditures.
Source:
U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
410. Manufacturers' Sales, Total Value
This series measures the value of manufacturers' sales
(or shipments) and includes receipts, billings, or the value
of products shipped, less discounts, returns, and allowances.
Shipments for export as well as those for domestic use are
included. Shipments by foreign subsidiaries are excluded,
but shipments to a foreign subsidiary by a domestic firm
are included. Also, the shipments figures include interplant
transfers as well as commercial sales.
Value of shipments includes received or receivable net
selling values, f.o.b. plant, after discounts and allowances,
and excluding freight charges and excise taxes. However,
where the products of an industry are customarily delivered
by the manufacturing establishments (bakery products, fluid
milk, and soft drinks, for example), the value of shipments
is based on the delivered price of the goods rather than the
f.o.b. plant price. Also included are receipts for contract
work and for miscellaneous activities such as sale of scrap
and refuse, installation work by manufacturing plant employees, research and development work, and repair work.
In the case of multiunit companies, the manufacturer is
requested to report as sales the value of products transferred
to other establishments of the same company (i.e., other
manufacturing plants, separate sales branches, or retail
stores).
107
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
Two anticipated estimates of sales and one actual figure
are published for each quarter. The first anticipated estimate is published in the month preceding the quarter to
which it refers. The second anticipated estimate is published
in the closing month of the quarter to which it refers.
Actual data are collected by the Bureau of the Census.
Source:
Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
412. Manufacturers' Inventories, Total Book Value
Data on Manufacturers' inventories refer to book values
of stocks on hand at the end of the quarter, and include
materials and supplies, goods in process, and finished goods.
Inventories associated with the nonmanufacturing activities
of a company are excluded. In general, inventories are as
valued by the manufacturer. Goods for which the title does
not lie with the company, such as Government or customerowned goods, are excluded. Inventories include, however,
progress or partial payment.
Two anticipated estimates of inventories and one actual
figure are published for each quarter. The first anticipated
estimate is published in the month-preceding the quarter to
which it refers. The second anticipated estimate is published
in the closing month of the quarter to which it refers. Actual
data are collected by the Bureau of the Census.
Source:
Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
420 a, b, and c. Current Income of Households Compared to
Income a Year Ago
These measures of recent income change represent the
percentage of households reporting income as higher, lower,
or unchanged, in the survey quarter compared with a year
earlier.
Source:
Consumer Buying Indicators (Current Population Reports, Series P-65), U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census. Additional information concerning the
design and rationale of this survey is contained in Consumer
Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability by F. Thomas
Juster (Occasional Paper 99 of the National Bureau of
Economic Research, 1966) and "The Census Bureau's New
Survey of Consumer Buying Expectations" by John M. McNeil
and Thomas L. Stoterau (paper presented at the annual
meetings of the American Statistical Association, December
1967).
425 a, b, and c. Mean Probability of Substantial Changes in
Income of Households
These income expectation series measure the mean
probability of a substantial increase, a substantial decrease,
and the difference between the mean probability of a substantial increase and decrease in family income. The mean
probability for a group of households is determined by
averaging the possibilities (expressed by a respondent as a
percent) of experiencing an income change.
Source:
Same as series 420. See above.
414. Percent of Total Book Value of Inventories Held by
Manufacturers Classifying Their Holdings as High,
Less Percent Classifying Holdings as Low
This series is based on a percentage distribution of
end-of-quarter book values. Book values are classified as
"high," "about right" or "low" according to the respondent
companies' characterization of inventories relative to sales
and unfilled orders. The series shown is the percent of
total end-of-quarter book value held by companies classifying
their holdings as high less the percent held by companies
classifying their holdings as low.
Source:
Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
416. Percent of Total Gross Capital Assets Held by Companies
Classifying Their Existing Capacity as Inadequate for
Prospective Operations Over the Next 12 Months, Less"
Percent Classifying Existing Capacity as Excessive"
This series is based on a percentage distribution of
end-of-quarter gross capital assets. Assets are classified
as "inadequate," "about adequate," or "excessive" according
to the respondent companies' characterization of their plant
and equipment facilities, taking into account their current
and prospective sales for the next 12 months. The series
shown is the percent of total gross capital assets held by
companies classifying their existing facilities as inadequate
less the percent held by companies classifying their existing
facilities as excessive.
Source:
Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
108
430. Number of New Cars Purchased by Households
This series measures the actual and anticipated levels of
household purchases of new cars. Since this series is based
on a survey of households, it excludes some purchases by
persons (such as purchases by persons residing in group
quarters) and purchases by business and governments. Thus,
in 1967, the sum of passenger car sales of domestic manufacturers and registration of imported cars was 8.3 million
units while the household survey estimate was 7.1 million,
about 85 percent of the total.
The figure for anticipated new car purchases refers to
the level of purchases for the 6-month period beginning with
the quarter following the survey.
Anticipated purchases are estimated by means of a
regression relating actual purchases to an index of expected
new car purchases. The index of new car purchases is
based upon the distribution of households by their reported
probabilities of purchasing a car within 6, 12, and 24 months
and by whether the car is likely to be new or used. The
expected total number of new car purchases is obtained by
multiplying the number of households in each category by
the average new car purchase rate of households who had
fallen in that category in previous surveys. Since households
can be classified by either their 6-, 12-, or 24-month probabilities, three estimates of expected total purchases can be
obtained. The three estimates are then averaged to obtain
a final figure for expected total new car purchases.
Source:
Same as series 420. See above.
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
435. Index of Consumer Sentiment
This index, prepared by the Survey Research Center of
the University of Michigan, is based on the responses to the
following five questions:
"Would you say that you and your family are better off or
worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now looking ahead--Do you think that a year from now
you people will be better off financially, or worse off, or
just about the same as now?"
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a
whole--Do you think that during the next 12 months we'll
have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead--Which would you say is more likely:
That in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good
times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have
periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or
what?" and
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as
furniture, house furnishings, refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. For people in general--Do
you think now is a good or a bad time to buy major
household items?"
The answers received are grouped into three categories:
1. Up, or better, or good
2. Same, or no change, or uncertain
3. Down, or worse, or bad
The following formula is applied to each question:
PU-PD+IOO
The proportion of "down" responses (PrO is subtracted
from the proportion of "up" responses (P ) and 100 is
added to avoid negative numbers.
These five answers are then averaged (unweighted), and
the average is then converted to an index in which the
first quarter of 1966 = 100.
Differences in the index values exceeding 1.3 points are
significant on the one-standard-error level.
The quarterly surveys contain many questions, in addition
to the index questions, because the surveys place great
emphasis on the study of factors which make for changes in
consumer attitudes and expectations.
the above measures, the level, of the preceding quarter
relative to that of the corresponding quarter 1 year earlier;
and the expected level for the coming quarter compared with
the corresponding quarter 1 year earlier. The series
presented here represent the percentage reporting (or
expecting) an increase less the percentage reporting (or
expecting) a decrease.
Except for new orders, data for each series cover all
concerns (i.e., manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers).
Data for new orders refer to manufacturers only. Selling
prices are also shown separately for manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.
Sou ree:
Business Economics, Businessmen's Expectations, Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (These series are used by
permission and may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
480, D480 aandb. Freight Carloadings (Net Diffusion Indexes)
These series represent the percent of actual or anticipated
increase in freight carloadings for 19 commodity groups
compared with the corresponding quarter 1 year earlier less
the percent of actual or anticipated decrease. The change in
the actual total number of carloadings is also shown.
These series are based on the number of cars of revenue
freight loaded by reporting Class I railroads. For statistical
purposes, a "carload" is a shipment of not less than 10,000
pounds of one commodity from one consignor to one consignee;
"revenue freight" is defined shipments from which earnings
accrue to the carrier on the basis of tariff rates; and a
"Class I railroad" is one whose annual revenue exceeds
$3,000,000. The figures cover all cars of revenue freight
originated for initial road haul on reporting roads.
Source:
Association of American Railroads
62. Index of Labor Cost Per Unit of Output (Ratio of index of
compensation of employees in manufacturing to index of
industrial production, manufacturing)
17- Price Per Unit of Labor Cost Index (Ratio of index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods to index of
compensation of employees per unit of output)
The index of labor cost per unit of output (series 62)
measures the relationship between the volume of production
of manufactured goods and the cost of the labor involved in
that production.
D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, D466. Actual
and Anticipated Movements in New Orders, Net Profits.
Net Sales, Number of Employees, Level of Inventories
and Selling Prices (Net Diffusion Indexes)
The compensation of employees, manufacturing, component
(labor cost) measures the income received by persons in an
employee status as remuneration for their work, including
(1) wage and salary disbursements--the compensation of
employees commonly regarded as wages and salaries, including compensation of executives, commissions, payment in
kind, bonuses, and tips; and (2) supplements to wages and
salaries—or "fringe benefits," including supplements to wages
and salaries, such as employers' contributions to social
insurance; private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; military reserve pay; etc.
Businessmen's actual and expected changes in new orders,
net profits, net sales, employment, inventories, and selling
prices are based on a percentage distribution of business
firms. Business executives are asked to report, for each of
Industrial production index, manufacturing, is a measure
of the changes in physical output of manufacturing in the
United States. Total manufacturing accounted for 86.45
percent of the Federal Reserve total industrial production
Source:
Survsy of Consumer Finances, Survey Research
Center, University of Michigan.
109
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
index for the base period, 1957-59. It includes 11 major
groups of durable goods and 10 major groups of nondurable
goods.
It also includes measures of the manufacturing
activity of the Department of Defense (durable goods) and
the Atomic Energy Commission (nondurable goods).
piled by government agencies and by various trade organizations and publications. The industries covered by the
index produce about 35 percent of the value of the total
output of goods and services in the United States.
In computing labor cost per unit of output (series 62),
seasonally adjusted data on compensation of employees
(wage and salary disbursements, manufacturing, plus supplements 3= wages and salaries) are converted to an index,
to
1957-59 100, and divided by the index of manufacturing
production (1957-59=100) to yield the seasonally adjusted
index of labor cost per unit of output.
The 210 component series of the index are based on
physical product data (tons of steel produced, etc.) and
production worker man-hours, ad justed for estimated changes
in productivity, for products- or industries for which monthly
data are not available. The monthly index through 1957 was
adjusted to levels determined by benchmark production
indexes based on detailed data from the census of manufactures, annual census surveys, and other data. A major
revision of the index from 1953 on is now underway.
The price per unit of labor cost index (series 17) measures
the relationship between the wholesale prices of manufactured
goods and an index of labor cost per unit of output.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
(Source: Board of Governorsof the Federal Reserve System.)
The wholesale price index, manufacturing is designed to
measure the direction and rate of change of prices of manufactured commodities. The prices used in this index are
transaction prices as obtained from manufacturers, taking
into account trade and quantity discounts. Cash and seasonal
discounts are also deducted when it is determined that most
buyers avail themselves of these discounts. Nominal or
published prices are used when they are considered indicative
of the market situation or when no other price is available.
These data are not seasonally adjusted.
The other component of price per unit of labor cost
index (labor cost per unit of output index) is described above.
To compute the seasonally adjusted price per unit of labor
cost index (series 17), the index of wholesale prices of
manufactured goods (unadjusted) is divided by the seasonally
adjusted index of labor cost per unit of output (series 62).
The compensation of employees and industrial production
components are seasonally adjusted by their respective
source agencies. (Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics, for the compensation of
employees components; Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, for the industrial production component;
and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
for the wholesale price component.)
47. Index of Industrial Production
This series measures the estimated changes in the physical
output of manufacturing and mining establishments and electric
and gas utilities. The index (1957-59=100) of industrial
production is prepared monthly by the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System and is based on data com-
110
853. Ratio of Production of Business Equipment to Production of Consumer Goods
This index (1957-59=100) is derived from the ratio of the
production of business equipment to the production of consumer goods. These components are published as "market
categories" of the index of industrial production. (The
industrial production index is described elsewhere in this
appendix. See description for series 47.)
Business equipment production includes production of
commercial, industrial, freight and passenger, and farm
equipment. This component is a secondary classification
under the major market category "equipment," which includes
defense equipment as well as business equipment. The
equipment category accounted for 15 percent of total industrial
production in the base period (1957-59); business equipment is 12 percent and defense equipment is 3 percent.
Consumer goods production includes automotive products,
home goods (appliances, furniture, television, etc.), apparel,
and consumer staples (processed foods; beverages and
tobacco; drugs, soap, and toiletries; newspapers, magazines,
and books; fuel oil and gasoline; residential utilities). This
major market category accounted for 32 percent of the total
industrial production index in the 1957-59 base period.
To compute the ratio of production of business equipment
to production of consumer goods shown in BCD, the seasonally
adjusted business equipment index is divided by the seasonally
adjusted consumer goods index and multiplied by 100.
Basic data for this series are seasonally adjusted by
the source agency. (Source: Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System.)
Which Way Business?
Down?
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST, the successor to Business Cycle Developments, is
published monthly by the Bureau of the
Census. This publication presents almost
500 economic indicators in a form that is
convenient for analysts with different approaches to the study of current business
conditions and prospects (e.g., the national
income model, the leading indicators, and
anticipations and intentions) as well, of
course, as for analysts who use combinations of these approaches. Various other
types of data (such as the balance of payments) and analytical measures (such as
the gap between actual and potential output) are also provided to facilitate complete
analysis.
The new report is organized into six
major sections, as follows:
A. National Income and Product
B. Cyclical Indicators
C. Anticipations and Intentions
D. Other Key Indicators
E. Analytical Measures
F. International Comparisons
Data are presented in charts beginning (in
most cases) with 1948 and in tables for the
current and two most recent years. In addition, several appendixes present historical
data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability.
ORDER SUBSCRIPTIONS FROM
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INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart table sequence)
(See complete titles in "-Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
Curren issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Charts
Tables
9,21,37
9,21,37,55
21,37,61
21,37
21
6,63,69
6,63,69,85
6,69,97
6,69
6,69
July
July
Dec.
July
July
22,37
22
22,37
6,69
o,69
6,69
Apr. '67#
July '68 July '68
May '68
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
*12. Index of net business formation
23,35
13 New business incorporations
23
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . . 23,35
8 Construction contracts total value
23
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . . 23,35
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
Apr. '68#
Mar. '68
Sep. '68 Sep.
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing 24
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries. . 24
9 Constr. contracts, com. and Indus.
24
24
*29 New bldg permits private housing
24,35
6,70
6,70
6,71
6,71
6,71
Aug . ' 67
Sep. '68
May '67
May '68
June ' 68
96.
97.
*61.
69.
25
25
.
25,38,39
6,71
6,71
6,71,77
Sep. '68
Aug. '67
Nov. '68
25
6,71
Sep. '68# Sep. '68#
7,64,72
7,72
7,72
7,72
7,72
July
Nov.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
'68# July '68#
'66
'68
'68 Sep. '68
'68
7,72
7,72
7,72
7,72
Jan.
Sep.
Apr.
Sep.
'68
'68
'67
'68
7,73
7,73,98
7,73
Dec. '67
Mar. '68
July '68
7,73
7,73
7,73
July '68
Apr. '67
Nov. '68
7,73
7,73,84
May '68
May '68
7,73
7,73
July '68
July '67
30
30
30
30,36
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Aug .
Aug.
Apr .
Dec.
' 68 Aug. '68
'68 Aug. '68
' 67
'67 July '64
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con
r
1. G oss National Product
00 GNP in current dollars
'05 GNP in 1958 dollars
'10 Implicit price deflator
'15 Per capita GNP in current dollars
'17. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
9,21,37
9,21,57,55
5,63,69
5,63,69,85
9
5,63
5,63
5,63
c
c
2. National and Personal Income
'20 National income current dollars
10
'22. Personal income, current dollars
10
'24. Disposable personal income, current dol. . . 10
'25. Disposable personal income, constant dol. . 10
'26. Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
10
!27. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
10
]. Pe r sonal Consumption Expenditures
'30. Total current dollars
'31. Total, constant dollars
'32. Durable goods, current dollars
'33. Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars .
'34. Automobiles, current dollars
'36. Nondurable poods, current dollars
'37. Services, current dollars
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
4. G'oss P ' i v o t e Domestic Investment
MO. Gross private domestic investment, total . .12
12
Ml Nonresidential fixed investment
12
M2 Nonresidential structures .
12
?43 Producers' disable equipment
12
?44 Residential structures
12,26
245. Change in business inventories
July '68# July '68# *200.
July '68# July '63# *205.
*47.
*52.
53.
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
5,63
5,63
5,63
5,63
5,63
5,63
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64,71
5. Foreign T'ade
?50. Net exports of goods and services
^52 Exports of soocis and services
?
53. Imports of goods and services . ...
13,46
13,48
13,48
14
14
14,52
14
July '68# July '68#
5,65,81
5,65,81
5,65,81
6. Gov. Pu r chases, Goods and Se r vices
260. Federal, State, and local governments . . . .
?62. Federal Government
264. National defense
266 State and local governments
5,65
5,65
7. Final Sales and Inventones
770. Final sales, durable goods output
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods output
274. Fi nal sales, nondurable goods output ....
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods output
5,65,83
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23. Industrial rjiaterials prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
18 Profits per dollar of sales mfg
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
15
5,65
16
16
16
. 16
16
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,66
5,66
17
17
5,66
5,66
17
17
17
5,66
5,66
5,66
18,35
18,35
18
18
18
6,67
6,67
6,67
6,67
6,67
Aug .
Apr.
Aug .
Apr.
Aug.
' 68 Aug . ' 68
'68#
' 68 Aug. '68
'68
'68 Aug . '68
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled .... 19
Help-wanted advertising
19
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments .... 19
Employees on nonagri payrolls
19,37
Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . . .
19
20,37
Unemployment rate total
20
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
20
Unemployment rate, married males
20,38
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
6,67
6,67
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
Feb.
June
Aug.
Aug .
Feb.
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
'68#
'68
'68# Aug.
' 68 Aug.
'68
'68
'67
'68
'68#
B6. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits.
85 Change in money supply
33. Change in mortgage debt . . . .
:
-113. Change in consumer installment debt. . .
* : Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
Sep. '68
July
July
Nov.
July
July
'68#
'68#
'68
'68
'68
'68
Sep. '68
Sep. '68
Sep. '68
Nov. '68
Sep. '68
Sep. '68
28
28
28,36
July '68
July '68
Nov. '68
July '68
Nov. '68
112.
110.
14.
39.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
49.
46
48.
:;:
41
42.
':43
45.
40.
*44.
28,36
28,36,62
28 36
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities . . . 29
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods . . . 29,54
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
29
*62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg
29 , 38
9. S o v i n g
il. Employment and Unemployment
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg.
:;:
4 Nona°ri placements all industries
2 Accession rate manufacturing
. ..
5. Initial c l a i m s , State unemploy. insurance. .
3 Layoff rate manufacturing
Vendor performance, slower deliveries. . . 27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories. . .27,38
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods. 27
'68#
'68#
'67
'68
'68
July '68# July '68#
15
15
290. Gross saving, private and government
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing.
Business expend., new plant and equip .
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures ....
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus
12,26
*31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories. . . 26,36
.
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories. . 26
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories 26
26
26. Buying policy, production materials
32.
25.
*71.
65.
15
8. Notional Income Components
280. Compensation of employees
282. Proprietors' income
284 Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj .
288. Net interest
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr
'68#
'68
Change in business loans ...
Total private borrowing
Liabilities of business failures
Delinquency rate installment loans
30,
31
31
31
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Apr.
Mar.
Mar.
Apr.
'67
'68
'68
'67
93
114
116
115
Free reserves
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields
Treasury bond yields
32
32
32
32
7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75
Jan.
Apr.
June
Jan .
'68
'68 July '64
' 68 July ' 64
' 68 July '64
117.
66.
:;:
72.
*67.
118.
Municipal bond yields
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
Mortgage yields, residential
32
33
33,38
33,38
33
7,75
8,75
8,75
8,75
8,75
Jan.
Dec.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'67
'67
'68
'68
6,76
6,76
6,76
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
Nov . ' 68 Nov. '68
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
B7. Composit Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.. . 34
820 5 coincident indicators
34
830 6 lagging indicators
34
? The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
July '.64
July '64
July '64
July '64
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
77
77
77
77
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
Nov .
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
' 68
'68
'68
'68
42
42
42
42
78
78
78
78
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov .
'68
'68
'68
' 68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov .
'68
'68
'68
' 68
43
43
43
43
43
78
78
78
78
78
Nov.
Nov.
Nov .
Nov .
Nov.
'68
'68
' 68
' 68
'68
Nov.
Nov .
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
' 68
'68
'68
'68
44
44
44
79
79
79
Nov. '68
Nov . ' 68
Nov. '68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
45
45
8,80
8,80
45
45
45
8,80
8,80
8,80
46
8,81
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing . . 56
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade. 56
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
56
durables
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
Apr. '67#
56
Apr. '67#
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
57
Aug. '68# Aug. <68#
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
Apr. '67#
57
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. 57
Apr. '67#
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers. . 57
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers . 57
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing
Sep. '68# Sep. '68#
57
Sep.
71,77
77
77
77
77
Household income compared to year ago. .
Probability of change, household income. .
New cars purchased by households
Index of consumer sentiment
41
41
41
41
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D440. New orders, manufacturing
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade ....
D450.
D460.
D462.
D464.
D466.
Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, wholesale trade
.. ..
Selling prices, retail trade
....
D61. Bus. expend, new plant and equip.
D480. Freight carloadings
480. Change in freight carloadings
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500 Merchandise trade balance
502. Exports, excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except
motor vehicles
508 Export orders, nonelectrical mach
512 General imports
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity
balance basis
522. U.S. balance of payments, official
settlements basis
525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance
basis
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
basis
250 Balance on goods and services
46
8,81
46
81
46
13, 46
81
65,81
530 Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534 U S official reserve assets
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
47
81
47
47
13,48
13,48
536 Merchandise exports adjusted
537 Merchandise imports adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
services, exports
541. Foreigner investment income, military
expend., and services, imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in U.S
48
48
81
81
48
81
48
49
49
81
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
544.
547.
546.
548.
549.
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
U.S. military expenditures abroad
Military sales to foreigners
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments, transportation and services . .
49
49
49
49
49
.
49
561.
560.
565.
564.
570.
575.
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Gov. grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions . .
'68# Sep.
8,83
8,83
8,83
8,65,83
Wholesale
Wholesale
Wholesale
Wholesale
price
price
price
price
index,
index,
index,
index,
53,60
53
53
53
all commodities . . . 54
indus. commodities. 29,54
proc. foods, feeds . 54
farm products
54
Tables
Historical
Serie:
data
descripti
(issue date) (issue d;
8,83
8,83
8,83
Dec. '67#
Sep. '68# Sep.
Mar. '68#
83
8,83
Aug.
'67#
8,84,96
84
84
84
May '68#
8,84
84,73
84
84
May '68
9,21,37,55
55
55
6,63,69,85 July '68# July ' (
85
5,85
8,86
8,86
July '67
July '67
8,86
Sep.
'68
Sep.
'<
8,86
July '67
Nov.
'i
8,86
July '68
July '<:
8,86
8,86
8,86
Feb. '68
Sep. '68
June '68
Sep. '<:
June ' 6
8,86
8,86
June '68
Feb. '68
June ' 6
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
87,90
87,90
87
88
88,91
88,92
88,92
Sep.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
May
'68
'68
'67
'64
'65
'65
'65
Sep.
'6
59
59
59
59
89,93
89,93
89,94
89,95
Sep.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'68
'65
'67
'65
Sep.
'6
84,96
•96
96
96
96
96
96
May
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'6S#
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
61
69,97
97
97
97
97
97
97
97
Dec.
July
Nov.
Nov.
June
Apr.
June
Nov.
'67
'67
'67
'67
' 68
'68
'68
'67
28,36,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
73,98
98
98
98
98
98
98
Mar.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'68
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47 United States
123 Canada
122. United Kingdom
126 France
125. West Germany
128 Japan
121 OECD European countries
127 Italy
July
July
July
July
'68#
'68#
'68#
'68#
July
July
July
July
'68#
'68#
'68#
'68#
'i
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
El. Actual and Potential GNP
205 Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206 Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
Fl. Consumer Price Indexes
781 United States
133 Canada
132 United Kingdom
135 West Germany
136 France
138 Japan
137. Italy
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
114
750.
58.
751.
752.
all items
food
commodities
services
D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
D47. Industrial production
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
50
50
50
50
50
.
50
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Fed. balance,nat'l income and prod. acct. . 51
601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod. acct. 51
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. 51
264. National defense purchases
14,52
D4. Price Movements
781. Consumer price index,
782. Consumer price index,
783. Consumer price index,
784. Consumer price index,
'68# E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl. Average wofkweek, prod, workers, mfg ...
D6. New orders, durable goods industries
Dll. New capital appropriations, mfg
D34. Profits, manufacturing
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
D23. Industrial materials prices ....
D5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
81
81
81
81
D3. Federal Government Activities—Con.
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
52
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . 52
647. New orders, defense products industries . . 52
648. New orders, defense products
52
625 Military contract awards in U.S
52
Nov.
68
Nov.
68
Nov.
68
Nov.
68
Nov . 68
25,38,39
40
40
40
40
420.
425.
430
435
Charts
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS--Con.
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Cl. Aggregate Series
61 Bus expend new plant and equip
410 Manufacturers' sales total
412 Mfrs ' inventories book value
414 Condition of rnfrs ' inventories
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity ....
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19 United States
143 Canada
142 United Kingdom
146. France
145. West Germany
148. Japan
147. Italy...
53,60
60
60
60
60
60
60
21,37,61
61
a
a
61
a
a
/f The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
Contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide for page
numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk (*) are
included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart B8.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, El)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross,national product (Q) a - - D e p a r t ment of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(A3)
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods output (Q). •
merce. Office of Business Economics
Department of Com(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods output (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods output (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods output (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain
seasonally adjusted total
(B3, E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and I dstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census jnd
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B6)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).
Office of Business Economics
• Department of Commerce,
(B5, B8)
*17. Price per unit of labor cost index -- ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted
index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).-Department of Commerce, Off ice of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment (B5, B8, E3, E4, F3)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
'
(B4)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
O f f i c e of Business Economics
(A3)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business
Economics
(A3)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
(B5, B8? E3, E4)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -Commerce, Office of Business Economics
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
Department of
(A9)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
-- Department of Labor,
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
*4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National Association of Purchasing Management; no seasonal adjustment
(B4)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3 7 B8)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M). ••
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance,
Federal National Mortgage Association, National Association
of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal
adjustment
(B6. B8)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in 1958
dollars) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business
Economics, National Income Division
(B5)
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M).--
69-Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
National Association of Purchasing Management; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). --
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3r E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National.
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)
*47. Index of industrial production (M). -• Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of
Business Economics
(B2, B8)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(.62)
*54. Sales of retail stores (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s ; no seasonal adjustment
(B5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). -- Department of Commerce,
O f f i c e of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2« B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
"12. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
no seasonal adjustment
(B6)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board; component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills'(M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal
adjustment
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department;
no seasonal adjustment
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no
seasonal adjustment
(B6)
Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
116
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). •- Depar
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Busi
ness Economics
(C
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufai
hirers classifying their holdings as high, less percent class
tying holdings as low (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Offic
of Business Economics
(C'
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies class
fying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospecti\
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifyin
existing capacity as excessive (Q). -- Department of Cor
merce. Office of Business Economics
;C
420. Current income of households compared to income a year aj
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department (
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
'C
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substariti
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease)
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Buree
of the Census
(C
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Departmei
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
I'C
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigai
Survey Research Center
(C
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Im
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced witf
out written permission from the source.)
(Ci
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstree
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduce
without written permission from the source.)
iC
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstree
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduce!
without written permission from the source.)
(CI
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun an
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not t
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun an
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not b
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(02
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Brae
street, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not b
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(02
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced with
out written permission from the source.)
(C2
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduce!
without written permission from the source.)
(02
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced with
out written permission from the source.)
(02
D480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads
(02;
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American
railroads
(Q2)
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators -- reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).--
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). -- Department of Con
merce Bureau of the Census and O f f i c e of Business Economic
(C
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in sect on
A.
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q). -- See in section A.
U.S. balance of payments
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
Titles and Sources of Series
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
(Continued from page 116)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product account (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
525. Net capital movements (including unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
account (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product account
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D3)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of nonsupervisory
production workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
F International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
527. Net capital movements (including unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. Balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
(D4)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, no seasonal
adjustment
(D4)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment(D4)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
(D4, Fl)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
(D4)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
(D4)
E Analytical Measures
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap --the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(E2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59=100) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components
of the Federal Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
Diffusion Indexes
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (E3)
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