Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1964
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NOVEMBER 1964
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
NOVEMBER 1964
Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis
Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Series ESI No. 64-11
Subscription price is $6 a year ($1.50 additional
for foreign mailing). Single issues are 60 cents.
Feliks Tamm—Computation of business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Eugene L. Rossidivito—Specifications for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
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furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources on
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 87 principal indicators and over 300 components are included in preparing the report. The
movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the
general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags"
can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. The exact number of series included for the total and important classes of series
may vary from month to month because of additions
of new series and revisions in the composition of
indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available
in published reports. A complete list of the series
and the sources of data is shown on the back cover
of this report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear to contain seasonal
movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc.
These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
All survey data from 1953 to the present ar<
projected to the levels for the sampling population the 1,000 largest manufacturing companies in 1957
These adjustments are based upon the relationshi
of total assets of the companies in the industry 1
sample. The resulting estimates are more repre
sentative of the true weight of each industry in it
aggregates (durable goods or nondurable goods
and "all" manufacturing) than when response rate
determine the weights of each industry, as formerl
was the case. All aggregate data are the sums c
the individual industry estimates.
1. The two series on capital appropriations for
manufacturing corporations have been revised by
the source agency (see series 11, newly approved,
and series 97, backlog). The third quarter 1964
figure for series 11 is based upon estimates, made
by the companies, of projects to be submitted for
authorization.
The revised panel accounts for approximatel
four-fifths of the total assets of the 1,000 larges
manufacturing companies. This sampling popula
tion, in turn, accounts for slightly less than three
fourths of the total assets of all manufacturin
corporations. These series relate only to capita
investments in the United States, its territorie
and possessions.
(Description provided by th
National Industrial Conference Board.)
Revised data for series 11 for the period 1961
to date were presented in the September 1964 issue;
in the current issue, the revised data for the period
prior to 1961 are shown in chart 1 and appendix F.
Revised data for series 97 are shown in appendix F
through I960 and in chart 1 and table 2 through
1961.
Data for the period after 1961 will be published in a subsequent issue.
2. Series 111, gross retained earnings of non
financial corporations, formerly computed on
tax payments basis, has been recomputed by th
source agency on a tax accrual basis. This revi
sion is reflected in chart 1, tables 1 and 2, an
appendix F.
The revised series are based on a sample which
has been corrected for changes in survey participation. The new sample originated in the first
quarter of 1961; approximately a tenth of the f o r mer panel of 602 companies has been replaced by
newly reporting companies. This revision causes
no significant differences either in the levels or in
the behavior of the totals produced by the old and
new panels.
3. A data bank of IBM punch cards containin
data for most BCD series, series components, an
diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of th
Census and can be made available at cost. For
fuller description of this service, see "Data Ban
of Business Cycle Indicators," page iv.
4. Appendix F includes data for series 11, 97
111, and 48; and actual and anticipated diffusion in
dexes for series D35, D36, D48, and D61.
The December issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on December 23, 1964.
11
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation .. .
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Table 1.—Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most
Recent Months
Chart 1. —Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present
Table 2.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1961 to Present
6
8
22
Analytical Measures
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent
Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks ....
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes , Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Major Economic Activities: January 1961
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing
Activities: January 1961 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components and Percent of Series
Rising: July 1963 to Present
34
35
37
38
41
42
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent
Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific
Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough
Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
50
55
58
59
60
Appendixes
Appendix A.— Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and
Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators.
Appendix C.—Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D . — C u r r e n t Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1963 to December
1964)
Appendix E.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix F . —Historical Data for Selected Series
61
62
63
66
67
68
Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
71
iii
Data Bank of
Business Cycle Indicators
A punch card file containing data for the business cycle indicators included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in tables 4 and 5, and the component series (listed in table 6)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the Bureau of
the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 indicators, the 30 diffusion indexes,
and 145 of the component series are available at cost. (The other series can be
obtained only from the sponsoring agencies.) The cost for these cards ranges from
$58 for 500 cards to $137 for 5,000 cards. One card is required per series year.
Thus, for the 85 principal indicators, from 1948 to date, the cost would be about
$70. For these principal indicators plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145 component
series, the cost would be about $ 135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However,
the figures required for this purpose are published in Business Cycle Developments
each month.
BCD Technical Papers
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time
to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge.
The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1. —Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in the September
196JL issue) . A new version of this program is scheduled to be released
early next year. Announcement will be made at that time.
No.. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin
(published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue) .
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in
May 1964 issue) .
No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers 1 Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue).
No. 5. —Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue) .
Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief
Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.
iv
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle S e r i e s
Intensive research over many years has provided
i record of the typical sequence of changes in ecolomic processes during a business cycle; more
jpecifically, a list of significant series that usually
ead, those that usually move with, and those that
isually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
jconomic activity. The series have been grouped,
n accordance with the NBER classification, as
leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" inlicators. In addition, other series are included in
his report for a more complete coverage of the
lational economy.
The series are described as
ollows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
.sually reach peaks or troughs before those in ag;regate economic activity as measured by the
oughly coincident series (see below). For this
eason, they are designated as "leading" series.
)ne group of these series pertains to activities in
he labor market, another to orders and contracts,
nd so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
eries are direct measures of aggregate economic
ctivity or move roughly together with it; for exmple, nonagricultural employment, industrial prouction and retail sales . For this reason they are
eferred to as "roughly coincident" series .
NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such
s new plant and equipment expenditures and manuicturers' inventories, usually have reached turnig points after they were reached in aggregate
conomic activity, and for this reason, they are
esignated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—Additional U . S . series with busiess cycle significance are also shown. Some of
icse series, such as change in money supply,
icrchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
eficit, represent important factors in the economy,
ut they have not qualified as indicators for various
easons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
idustrial production indexes for several countries
hichhave important trade relations with the United
tates are presented.
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2 ) . — O v e r
50 business cycle indicators and about 30 additional series with business cycle significance are
included. Together they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations
in the economy as well as the basis for making an
economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6). —
These measures aid in forming a judgment of the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle
and the extent of current changes in different parts
of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared witli
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal and Related Statistical
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are
as follows: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30, 37,
55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, 112, and 128.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and
97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, and series 9 and 10 which are based on
Descriptions and Procedures
unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they
are published.
Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
the year. Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
made for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel.
Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
may be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations .
MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month- to -month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year a g o ) , and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for
all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide
an indication of the variation about these moving
averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
for years beginning with 1958. Although not so
smooth as more powerful moving averages such as
the weighted 15-term Spencer curve, the MCI
curve is more current and has a smaller rounding
bias around business cycle peaks and troughs. Or
balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms- of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle
fluctuations .
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data ar<
usually larger than those computed from historica
series and shown in appendix C. MCD is usualb
computed for a fairly long period, one coverin;
both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pac<
of change varies from phase to phase of the busi
ness cycle, such a measure will not provide a:
accurate estimate of the span over which to esti
mate cyclically significant changes at all times
Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likelto be too high during the early stages of recover
when expansion has usually been rapid and too lo\
during the late stages of expansion when the rate o
advance has usually been small. This limitatio;
should also be borne in mind when making use o
this m e a s u r e , 2
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Three kinds of analytical measures are pre
sented—diffusion indexes, timing distributions, an
direction-of-change tables. These measures ai
in forming a judgment of the magnitude of currer.
changes compared to previous changes, the immi
nence of a turning point in the business cycle, an
the extent of current changes in different parts c
the economy. They also point to developments i
particular industries and places .
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simpl
summary measures of groups of economic series
They express, for a given group, the percent of th
series which has risen over given intervals of time
Their turning points tend to lead the turning point
of the aggregate and they measure how widesprea
a business change is . They vary between, the limit
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all com
ponents falling) . Widespread increases are ofte
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are groupe
according to the timing classification of the NBER
For monthly series, comparisons are made ove
1-month intervals (January-February, February
March, etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-monl
intervals depending upon the irregularity of tt
1
Various terms are used to describe the phase
of the business cycle. In this report both "con
traction" and "recession" are used to describ
the declining phase. No difference in meaning i
intended.
2
For a more complete description of MCD and it
use in studying economic series, see Busines
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor: Na
tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. , voK 1
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Fore
casting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton Universit
Press: 1961).
Descriptions and Procedures
series. The indexes based on 1-month intervals
are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9-month indexes (see chart 2) .
Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter intervals, 3-quarter intervals, and 4-quarter intervals. (See charts 2 and 3 . )
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
lesignate diffusion indexes. When one of these
lumbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
lumber, it means that the diffusion index has been
:omputed from components of the indicator series;
'or example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
:omputed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
'Components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
>n 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen
>f these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the
Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indi:ators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
ind D58) . Indexes for these indicators show com>arisons for components over 1-month and either
>- or 9-month spans. The 11 other diffusion inlexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to
he above 9 indicators. They include two National
ndustrial Conference Board indexes ( l - and 3[uarter spans) based on newly approved capital
.ppropriations ( 17 industries); the First National
/ity Bank of New York index based on quarterly
rofit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffuion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the folDwing: Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and
ew orders (400 companies), based on data from
)un and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 comlodity groups), based on data from the Association
f American Railroads; and new plant and equipment expenditures ( 16 industries) , based on data
rom the Office of Business Economics and the
ecurities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
how what proportion of business enterprises (or
ndustries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comarisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
ag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
urrent data are often highly irregular and require
areful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evience for a prospective business cycle turning
Dint.
Each month a timing distribution is contructed which shows the number of series reachig high values during each month of the expansion,
he tinning distribution is summarized by showing
le number of series reaching new highs and the
srcent currently high for each of several recent
lonths (see table 3 ) .
Similar distributions of
lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpretig the distribution of current highs, such distribuLons are also shown for leading and coincident
eries as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
ic peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
xpansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 2) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead.
On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes.
These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures.
That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 6- or
9-month spans .
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.
4
Descriptions and Procedures
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured from the May I960 reference peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is ^beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates . Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
the current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in.
This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this respect,
with earlier expansions .
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates (table 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the trough level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spans from previous reference peaks. This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
These comparisons will be
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series.
For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) .
Specific
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These
comparisons differ from those shown for reference
cycles in that they show the status only up to the
specific peak date. For some series past specific
expansions were shorter than the current one and,
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate.
Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation pro-
cedure since 1919.
sort are as follows:
The principal
cases of this
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units startec
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employmen
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Depart
ment store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, tota
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Productioi
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight th«
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1, 2, and 3) . —
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of eacl
series against the background of expansions anc
recessions in general business activity from 194*
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings o
shaded areas) and business cycle trough date*
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has beei
designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scale;
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of th«
various series. The scale selected for each serie
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates o
change of various series can be compared wit]
each other only where scales are identical. See th<
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using thes
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—Thes
charts compare the performance of each serie
during the current expansion with its performanc
during the expansion phase of previous busines
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in chart
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined a
the strategic point of the business cycle: For ex
pansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and spe
cific trough (chart 5 ) . Thus these charts facilitat
judgements on the vigor of the current expansio
relative to cyclical movements during the corre
spending expansions of previous cycles .
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current busi
ness or reference cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for aggre
gate economic activity) with movements over th
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current spe
cific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series
with the movements over the corresponding phase
of previous specific cycles in that series. In bot
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, th
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined an
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs ar
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons c
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed description
of these comparisons.
Descriptions and Procedures
How to
1,2,
3
(May) (Feb.)
P
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas) •
as designated by NBER
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-2 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexescharts 2 and 3.)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER
' Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
("5"= May)
' Broken lines indicate table-2
data for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
Parallel lines indicate a break •
in cqntinuity-e.g., data not
ivailable, change in sample reported, change in base used for
imputations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
("I" = first quarter)
ck cover for complete „
itles and sources of series
otted line indicates anticipated
' 61. Bus. expend., new plant
and equip, (bil. dol.)— Q
»olid line with quarterly
'lotting
ting points "indicates
luarterly data
rithmetic seal
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is
a semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
""Certain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for
MCD 5-term moving averages and 2J4 months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS
Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg...
Accession rate manufacturing .......
Nonagri. placements, all industries.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Temporary layoff, all industries....
Avg. weekly initial claims, State
Unit of
measure
Aug.
1964
July
1964
Percent change2
Sept.
1964
40.6
4.1
523
2.0
129
40.7
r3.9
499
rl.5
87
261
40.6
Oct.
1964
Avg.
change,
195319633
July
to
Aug.
1964
Aug. Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.
1964
1964
0.0
0.5 +0.2
-0.2
(NA)
4.9
-4.9
-7.7
1.8
O.C
-4.6 +3.0
9.5 +25.0
0.0 (NA)
17.8 +32.6 -46.0 +27.6
514
pi. 5
127
p40.6
(NA)
514
(NA)
92
240
241
248
5.3
+8.0
-0.4
-2.S
21.25
3.77
r!9.34
r3.77
rl9.91
r3.68
p!9.00
P3.78
3.8
4.5
-9.0
0.0
+2.9
-2.4
-4.6
+2.^
53.55
4.50
46.30
r4.51
e5.53
50.40
p4.52
(NA)
(NA)
9.7 -13.5
4.9 +0.2
11.6 +13.6
+8.9
+0.2
(NA)
(NA)
1483
109.6
29. New bldg. permits, private housing.. 1957-59=100..
45
12. Net change, number of businesses . Thous ........
Number. • . • • . 15852
14. Liabilities of business failures.... Mil. dol
151.92
r!408
113.0
+16
16074
76.20
r!441
r!07.8
p!569
pi 09.0
16715
125.89
(NA)
101.92
43
40
42
42
13.1
+7.0
-5.0
O.C
103^5
32.0
103.6
(NA)
r!03.4
p!02.4
6.3
0.7
6.8
+0.3
+0.1
(NA)
-0.2
-l.(
5.1
-1.0
2.6
-1.5
+1.7
+!/
2.5
-0.9
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
Hours ........
Per 100 empl.
Thous ........
Per 100 empl.
Thous
..do
6. New orders, durable goods Indus..... Bil. dol
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus.. • • do ••••«•••«
9. Construction contracts, commercial Mil. sq. ft.
and industrial.
floor space.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip.. Bil. dol
4
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. . .. ..do
7. Private nonfarm housing starts.
P3.6
Ann. rate,
No. per week.
16. Corporate profits after taxes4...... Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. 1957-59=100..
4
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg. .... Cents
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries4.... Percent. .....
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*.... 1941-43=10...
21. Change in business inventories, all Ann. rate,
industries4 5
bil. dol....
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
..do
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inven5
tories of materials and supplies .. ..do
10.4
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
r+2.8
7.3 • -5.1 +2.3 +8.c
3.8 +3.1
-4.6 +1.3
2
-1
(NA)
2.7 +1.4
+4.0
16.9 +49.8 -65.2 +19. C
+0.2
r+1.0
F+5.4
(NA)
3.5
+0.8
+4.4
(NA
-1.6
r+1.3
pfl.4
(NA)
1.5
+2.9
+0.1
(NA
58
57
60
56
6.8
-1.7
+5.3
-6.'
..do
58
58
61
60
5.8
0.0
+5.2
-1.
..do
59
65
74
72
7.7 +10.2
+13.8
-2.
+1.26
102.5
r+0.06
105.7
r+0.79
108.2
p+0.71
112.0
0.49 -1.20
1.3 +3.1
Thous
58912
. . do ......... 65706
Percent
4.9
. .do.
2.7
• • do .........
3.6
r58955
65678
5.1
2.6
3.5
r59049
65534
5.2
2.9
3.4
P58983
65580
5.2
2.8
3.4
0.3
0.4
4.2
6.0
4.8
+0.2
+0.1
0.0 -0.2
-2.0
-4.1
+3.7 -11.5
+2.8 +2.9
-0.
+0.
0.
+3.
0.
1957-59=100..
..do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
..do
..do
124
132.9
123
r!33.8
126
r!34.0
p!27
p!31.7
3.1
1.1
-0.8
+0.7
+2.4
+0.1
+0.
1.3
1.5
1.3
+1.2
+1.6
+1.8
..do
..do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., const r.. ..do
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod1957-59=100..
2430.2
491.4
126.9
r21935
2372.5
494.9
127.9
r22266
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
-2.4
+0.7
+0.8
+1.5
+2.2
+0.6
+1.0
-0.4
+0.
-0.
-2.
101.2
101.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
+0.
37. Purchased materials, percent report26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commit32. Vendor performance, percent report25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
goods industries5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments.
42. Total nonagricultural employment....
43 . Unemployment rate, total.
40.. Unemployment rate, married males....
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy., State.
46. Help-wanted advertising
4
50 . GNP in 1954 dollars
49. GNP in current dollars4
57. Final sales4
51. Bank debits outside NYC....
Bil. dol
1957-59=100..
r519.6
r628.4
r625.7
r2424.8 P2454.2
r497.9 P498.6
r!29.2 p!28.0
r22175 P21536
101.2
DlOl.4
+0.73 -0.0
+2.4 +3.
-1.
+1.
Basic Data
(Table 1.--BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
and equipment4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg..
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP^.
64-. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories....
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*^
July
1964
Percent change2
Aug.
1964
Sept.
1964
Oct.
1964
Avg. July
change, to
1953-3 Aug.
1963
1964
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
1957-59=100..
97.7
a44.55
97.5
r98.3
P98.9
3.2
0.6
+2.4
-0.2
+0.8
+0.6
..do
Bil. dol
60.5
105.4
r60.8
p60.9
(NA)
0.9
0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.2
(NA)
..do
Mil. dol
21.6
56073
r21.6
56508
p21.6
57021
(NA)
(NA)
0.8
0.8
0.0
+0.8
0.0
+0.9
(NA)
(NA)
2.3
-0.2
5.7
5.4
5.6
-7.7
-5.5
+3.4
+6.0
+3.7
-2.9
-3.9
-0.9
+3.8
2.5 +2.6
26.9 -57.7
+62.7
(NA)
4.98
Percent. .....
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal cash payments to public
90.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
Federal cash receipts from public... ..do....
5
Federal cash surplus or deficit .... ..do
Balance, Federal income and product
account^ 5
..do
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement... Mil. dol
91.
92.
99.
93.
85.
Defense Dept. obligations total....
Military contract awards in U.S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*5
Change in money supply5.....
83.
84.
95.
..do
..do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Percent. .....
98. Change in money supply and time deposits5
..do
10. Total private borrowing^............ Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
..do
5
12. Change, business loans
..do
5
.13. Change, consumer installment debt .. ..do. ........
14-. Treasury bill rate*. ................ Percent.
..do.
..do
17. Municipal bond yields*
..do
18. Mortgage yields*.
..do
86. Exports, excluding military aid..... Mil. dol
87. General imports
..do
..do
45
89. U.S. balance of payments ......... ..do
81.
94.
96.
97.
Aug. Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.
1964 1964
Consumer prices
1957-59*100..
Construction contracts, value
Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus... Bil/dol!!!!!
Backlog of capital appro, mfg.6
• .do
126.9
116.4
-10.5
117.1
110.0
-7.1
124.1
114.1
-10.0
119.3
113.1
-6.2
1691
p-5.2
716
1165
(NA)
5274
3016
3.29
+132
-fO.71
4147
1915
rl.86
+79
+0.32
4472
2291
r2.00
+90
+0.51
(NA) 15.1 -21.4 +7.8 (NA)
(NA)
(NA) 26.2 -36.5 +19.6
p2.10 23.0 -43.5 +7.5 +5.0
p+103 104.2
+11
+13
-53
p+0.38 0.23 -0.39 +0.19 -0.13
+0.73
+0.62
+0.68
pfO.72
+3.84
55324
r44676
+4.75
+5.24
+1.91
+5.80
3.48
4.13
4.43
3.18
+5.22
3.51
4.14
4.43
3.19
+6.16
3.53
4.16
4.49
3.23
(NA)
3.58
4.16
4.49
3.25
0.85 -0.58 +0.94
7.3 +0.9 +0.6
1.8 +0.2 +0.5
0.0 +1.4
1.7
2.6 +0.3 +1.3
(NA)
+1.4
0.0
0.0
+0.6
5.46
2111.4
1589.6
+521.8
5.46
2084.9
1592.2
+492.7
p-565
5.46
2271.2
1557.5
+713.7
5.45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.0
0.0
0.58
4.6 -1.3 +8.9
3.6 +0.2 -2.2
59.0 -29.1 +221.0
286 +168
-0.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
108.1
140
51.30
108.2
121
r51.37
108.2
131
r52.l6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P52.86
0.0
+8.3
+1.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+1.3
0.21
-0.11
+0.06 +0.04
11.6 -13.4
8.6 +1.2
1.22 +0.91 +0.49 -3.33
0.2 +0.1
7.0 -13.6
1.5 +0.1
5.9
r » revised; p • preliminary; e = estimated; a » anticipated; NA • not available.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no sea,-onal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general, business activity
•ises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,
»-, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the
•ate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as -tO.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
imong the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
^Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-;o-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1$48 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators |
42
I. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)
41
40
39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg. (p«r 100 employees)
5
4
1
3
700
600 ^
30. Nonagn. placements, all indus. (thous.)
500 1
fc
400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per TOO employees
inverted scale
1
2
1
3
75
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.--inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.—5-term)
100
125 2
150 1
175
200
225
250
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.—inverted scale)
200
c*
300;
400
500
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Reod Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
20
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol
15
1
10
24. New orders, mach. and equip Indus, (bil.
dol.)
4
3
-
1
60
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq, ft. of
floor area, MCD moving avg.~6-term)
50
40
30
10- Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dof.)
5
4
11 New capital appropriations, mfg. r Q (bil. dol.)
5
4
V
7, Private nonfarrn housing starts (millions
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
3
<«^
-
1
2
2.0
1.5
1.0
29. New bldg. permits, private bousing units
(index: 1957-59 100)
140
120 <?
100 ^
U
80
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
iee "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
New businesses and business failures}
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
14 Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.—6-term)
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.—
inverted scale. MCD moving avg.—6-term)
il IliStL* ulitfll III M III ill III II III III III it In ttlitfcBi III III
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
See "How to Reod Owrts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
11
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
I
I
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Prof its and stock prices |
35
30
16. Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bil. dol.
25
20
15
110
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
105 ^
100 -f
95
15.0
12.5 ^
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents)
10.0 i
V
7.5
15.0
12.5 cr,
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries, Q (percent)
10.0 |
7.5
100
90
80
70
60
19. Stock prices. 500 common stocks {
(index: 194f-43=10)
'
50
2
40
1
30
20
nil
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959 1960
1961 1962 1963
1964
12
Basic Data
CHART 1 ^
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
(Nov.)
P
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
[inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices)
21, Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (bi!. dol.)
31. Change in book value, mfg, and
trade inventories(Ann. rate, bil. doL
MCD moving avg,--4-term
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories,
materials, and supplies (Ann. rate, bil. doi.
MCD moving avg.--5-term )
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.--4-term)
23. Industrial materials prices (index:
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1957-59=100)
1961
1962
1963
1964
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (F.U)
P
T
{Employment and unemployment j
60
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions)
Ȥ
a>
1
50
65
42. Total nonagr. employment (millions)
60
§
55 |
50
43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)
3
4
7
8
2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent—inverted scale)
3
5
6
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent—inverted scale)
3
4
5
6
7
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59 = 100)
140
120
100
80
60
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
99 "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q (bil. dol.)
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil. dof.)
57. Final sales, Q (bil. dol.)
- 350
- 300
-J 250
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Reod Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
15
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s - - C o n .
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dof.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol
54- Sales of retail stores (bil.
dol.)
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59 = 100)
••""IIM
1949
...I..........
1950
1951
•««.«,«».
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M.Vr*V»»... ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H ^ - H - W H I M . I I M I I I I I I I . I I I I I l l l l l l l l l l M l II I l l l l I
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
-»80
16
Basic Data
CHART 1 b
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
C
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July] (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
i
i
i * i
i
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
i i -: n
- 50
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (bil. dol.)
- 40
Investment expenditures
- 30 "i
1
- 20
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
- no _
-100 i
[Cost per unit of outpu
- 90
68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
- no
-100 2
§
- 90
64. Book value of mfis.' inventories (bil.
- 70
60
dol.)
2
- 50 i
40
Inventories {
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil.
«?
dol.)
20
i
15
60
50
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
2
40 |
30
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1967
1963
1964
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
[Federal budget and military commitments
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
82. Fed cash payments to public (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6 term)
83. Fed. cash receipis from public (bil. dol
MCD moving avg..—6-tcrm)
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
95. Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and
product acct., Q (bil. dol.)
90. Defense Dept. oblig., pro^curement (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—6-term x
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.— o-term)
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil.
MCD moving avg.—6-term) j\
dol.
99. New orders, defense products (biL dol
M.CP moving avg.--6-term)
1
-"1.0
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
ee "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Julyj (Apr.)
P
T
Reserves, money supply and financino
-i-H.2
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)
85- Change in money supply (percent
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
98, Change in money supply and time deposits (percent
MCD moving avg.--6-term
110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, bil. riol.
111. Corporate gross savings (Ann. rate, bil. c'ol.
112. Changes in bank loans to businesses (Ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avq.-5-term
113. Change in consumer installment debt. (Ann. rate. bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
19
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent
4 §
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
118. Mortgage yields (percent)
5 1
948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
; "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
20
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
D || Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e — Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)
89 Excess of receipts or payments in
U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100.
MCD moving avg.--5-term)
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.
-16
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
21
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
I Industrial production indexes
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
1
T
1
M-
47. United States (index: 1957-59=100)
123. Canada (index: 1957-59^100)
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-~100)
121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100)
125. West Germany (index: 1957-59-100)
128. Japan (index: 1957-59-100)
-•60
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
se "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
22
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by 5D; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3> 4> 5> 14> 15> 40, 43, and 45) • Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or .order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1JBER Leading
Year and
month
1. Avg. work- 2. Accession
week, produc- rate, manution workers, facturing2
manufacturing1
(Hours)
(Per 100
employees)
30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manucultural
placements, facturing
all industries
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
Indicators
4. Persons
on temporary
layoff, all
industries3
(Thous.)
5. Average
weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance4
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
(Thous . ) (Bil. dol.)
24. New orders, machin
ery and
equipment
industries5
(Bil. dol.)
1961
February
April
Miy
July
August. ........
October
November
© L LL
39.5
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.8
40.3
40.6
40.3
39
3.8
43
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
3.8
04.4
4.3
4.1
40 0
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
40.7
40.2
40.4
40.2
39 2
39.4
39.4
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127
393
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
©13 95
14.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.89
15.92
16.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26
2 76
2.74
2.71
2.74
2.70
2.80
3.03
3.07
2.88
2.91
2.98
2.96
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
135
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
17.70
17.70
17.15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3.15
3.30
2.97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07
552
555
553
560
551
541
541
540
552
570
530
532
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
313
294
285
290
286
287
283
285
282
281
280
308
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
38
/ i
/ -\
536
535
520
522
533
516
18
123
123
91
122
104
117
rl Q
n"3 A
499
514
(NA)
«n /
447
29
©2.9
173
©222
459
448
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
559
572
574
®592
557
557
550
555
554
563
547
40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40 3
40.7
40.6
40.5
40.5
3.7
3.9
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.9
40 1
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
40.6
5340.7
40.6
P40.6
1962
February
March
April
May
July
September
December.
1963
January
February
April
May
June
July
September ......
October
November
97
1964
February
March
April
May
June
July
Amnist-* T ,,»....
October
*>2^
1.7
17
1.6
1.7
1.6
2.0
rl.5
fHjpl.5
(NA)
1 OQ
L*D87
127
Q9
?<•
289
264
273
260
260
259
261
LE)240
241
248
248
19.74
-i Q cn
•3
f>~
•3
/-)
-1 Q
0
If.
19. 5U
<~)S
19. <D
9O 1 A
1Q Q1
iv.
94
on no
nrioi o c.
riy . J4
r!9.91
T»l Q
-I Q
0 L-\
frrjq Q-
o 09
171-1
3
Q/
-pO nrj
p>f\
_o £.a
_.q nc
December* ......
1
2
(D s December 1960.
© •* October 1960.
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
4
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
5 © . November I960.
Week ended November 14.
23
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PR ESE NT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by fiTI; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
N3ER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
9. Construction contracts,
commercial and
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
10. Contracts
and orders,
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1000 manufacturing corporations -1
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started 2
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
29. New private housing
units authorized by local
building permits 2
(1957-59=100)
12. Net change 13. New business incorpoin business
rations
population,
operating
businesses
(Thous.)
(Number)
1961
larch
Lpril
lay
ugust. ........
eptember
ecember
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.28
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50
2.26
2.46
2*.85
2^62
1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
103.8
109.1
104.0
111.9
103.8
106.1
108.7
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0
1,287
1,418
1,551
1,656
1,651
1,558
1,584
1,454
1,712
©1,824
1,544
1,524
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
1,688
1,613
1,638
1,501
1,507
1,585
1,483
rl,408
rl,441
pi, 569
117.6
IB 123. 9
121.5
112.9
112.1
115.2
109.6
113.0
r!07.8
p!09.0
©+6
+10
+9
+11
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,881
1962
anuary
arch
pril
ay
lly
stober
yvember
38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16.
40.56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
a. 89
3.71
3.98
3.71
3.96
3.76
3.66
3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.14
44.15
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
04.68
51.64
52.47
48.17
©54.84
46.22
48.22
53.55
46.30
50.40
(NA)
4.37
4.12
4.10
4.37
4.63
4.63
4.50
r4.51
P4.52
(NA)
2. 86
2! 56
3.04
3^25
+11
+12
+11
+11
15,599
15,758
15,670
15,372
15,245
14,947
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
1963
ibruary
xril
Lly
LgUSt.
•vember
2.68
3!35
4.07
3*93
+11
+11
+13
+12
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
1964
bruary
ril
ly.
tober
4.01
4.87
jgj ; e5.53
aember. ......
(D » 3rd quarter I960.
© « December 1960.
+16
G3.+17
+16
16,193
16,086
16,064
16,242
15,932
15,797
15,852
16,074
tHll6,715
(NA)
24
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEKT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicate
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [H]; the reverse i
true for inverse series (series 3, 4> 5, 14* 15> 40, 43, and 4.5).
Series numbers are for identification only and d
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicate
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
14 . Current
liabilities
of business
failures 1
(Mil. dol.)
15. Business 16. Corpofailures
rate profits
with liabil- after taxes
ities of
$100,000 and
over 2
18. Profits
17. Ratio,
price to
(before taxunit labor
es) per dol.
cost index, sales, all
manuf a c tur- mfg. corporations
ing
(Number per
week)
(1957-59=
100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.
(Cents)
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating,
corporate,
all indus.
(Percent)
19. Stock
prices, 500
common
stocks* 2
(1941-43=10)
21. Change :
business inventories a:
ter valuati'
adjustment,
all indus.
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.
1961
torch
April
May
June
July
AWUfit, t T T T T . t r
November.
December
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
77.40
107.15
89.80
93.15
107.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61
37
®32
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
$52.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
39
87.70
121.87
107.25
98.50
90.44
153.07
151.92
76.20
125.89
101.92
41
42
37
46
39
38
43
40
42
42
©19!5
2l!s
22^6
24.*5
99.3
©98.8
98.9
100.4
100.3
101.0
101.4
102.0
101.6
101.5
101.7
102.3
©6>!6
©7!9
7i6
8*.6
7^9
8^5
B.6
9^3
S\2
9.*2
s'.i
9il
s!i
9il
8.3
9.1
7^9
9il
S.5
9i4
8^5
9^3
B'.B
9^8
09!i
l6'.4
8.9
(HI 10. 5
(NA)
10.*4
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74
©-3.'c
+2.':
+3'.'
+5!'
1962
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
24^5
24.*9
25.0
25.7
101.3
101.7
101.8
100.9
101.1
100.4
100.7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
13+6.
+<s!
+5.
+5.
1963
February
March
April
Jfey
June
July
August
September. . , . . .
October
November
De«eniibeT*. ......
25^5
26>!6
26.7
2B.3
100.6
100.8
101.3
101.3
101.8
-iO^TT
102.3
101.5
101.9
102.0
101.9
102.4
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74-17
+3!
+3.
+4.
+6
1964
February
torch
April
toy
June. ..........
July
Amrust. ........
September ......
October
November
1
3
2
© « June I960.
(D = October 1960.
Average for November 17, 18, and 19.
31.2
31.9
E32.6
103.2
103.3
102.7
0103.8
103.7
102.9
103.5
103.6
r!03.4
p!02.4
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
©84.85.
3
86.14
+2
+3
r+2
25
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 19_6|1 TO PRESENT-Continued
series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by (Hi: the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4> 5, 14? 15, 40, 43? and 45)•
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
31. Change in
book value,
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total *
20. Change in 37. Purchased
book value,
materials,
mfrs. ' inven- percent retories of ma- porting higher
inventories
terials and
supplies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-4.3
-2.2
-7.2
+1.0
+0.8
-0.8
+2.0
+3.1
+4.0
+1.9
+7.0
+6.2
-1.6
-1 9
(Percent
reporting)
26. Production
matls., percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer* -1
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
percent reporting slower
deliveries* 2
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in 23. Industrial
unfilled or- materials
ders, durable prices* 1
goods industries3
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1961
pril
av.
me
alv.
5cember.
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0.36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65
77.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4 .
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
17
58
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
SD+9.6
+7.2
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
46
48
47
50
55
57
56
50
49
46
42
42
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46 .
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
+3.5
0.0
+3.7
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
+0.2
r+1.0
P+5.4
(NA)
-1.9
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
r+1.3
P*1.4
(NA)
40
50
54
55
51
56
58
57
060
56
59
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
(Hj+1.26
r+0.06
r+0.79
p+0.71
98.5
98.5
98.9
-2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3
0+6.6
1962
iron
)ril
me
Lly
LffUSt
it/ober
c ember .
+6.0
+5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+5.1
1963
ril
y
ly
v ember
rtembe'r ,,„,..,
1964
»ch
"11
ie
Lv
iober •
1
2
CD = December 1960.
© - March 1960.
Average for November 17, 18, and 19.
4
3
JED61
60
© a January 1960.
55
54
60
60
•63
55
59
65
1374
72
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
150112.0
4
112. 4
26
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by. an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by OH; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15? 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or. order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41. Employees
in nonagricultural establishments
Year and
month
43. Unem42. Total
nonagricul- ployment
rate, total1
tural employment,
labor force
survey1 2
40. Unemployment
rate, married males1
45. Avg.
weekly insured unemployment
rate, State
programs3
46. Helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
47. Industrial production
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(1957-59=
100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
53,725
©53,541
53,615
53,713
53,911
54,165
54,294
54,444
54,480
54,593
54,825
54,927
61,034
60,897
61,229
61,154
61,134
61,622
61,259
61,274
61,299
61,463
61,896
61,747
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.0
©7.1
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
©5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.9
6.2
6.3
©6.3
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8
88
©88
90
89
91
93
94
98
98
107
110
110
103.6
©103.6
104.0
106.7
108.7
110.5
111.5
112.9
111.6
113.4
114.9
115.8
54,946
55,223
55,368
55,703
55,822
55,908
56,010
56,019
56,125
56,195
56,205
56,211
61,899
62,179
62,253
62,247
62,663
62,752
62,620
63,021
63,039
63,007
62,870
63,240
5.8
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
4.7
4.5
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
114
115
115
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
e!07
115.0
116.4
117.5
118.0
118.2
118.1
119.0
119.0
119.7
119.1
119.8
119.4
56,333
56,458
56,706
56,873
57,060
57,194
57,340
57,344
57,453
57,646
57,580
57,748
63,090
63,227
63,478
63,770
63,690
63,843
64,092
64,069
64,167
64,128
64,319
64,315
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
e!07
e!09
e!08
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119.8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
57,850
58,183
58,327
58,502
58,590
58,782
58,912
r58,955
[H]r59,049
P58,983
64,631
65,035
65,207
65,811
065,889
65,549
65,706
65,678
65,534
65,580
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.3
©4.9
5.1
5.2
5.2
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.7
©2.6
2.9
2.8
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
S3. 4
4
3.3
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
lE]pl27
127.7
128.2
129.0
130.5
131.3
131.6
132.9
r!33.8
@r!34.0
pl'31.7
(1957-59=100;
1961
February
torch
April
toy
JUly
September
December
1962
January
torch
April
toy
June
July
August
October
November .......
©434 .*2
444 .'4
450* .*6
462 .*5
469.']
475!:
478.;
483!
1963
March
April
toy
July
September ......
October
November
p^neiriheT*. ......
485*.
487.
494.
502.'
1964
February
March
April
toy
June
July
Aiumst »
T
» , T . .. .
September
October
November
.
508 !
513
©r519
1
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 196
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
CD « December 1960.
3
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
4
Week ended November 7.
27
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs, by JHl • the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
49. Gross
national
product in
current dollars
(Ann . rate ,
bil. dol.)
57. Final
sales (series
49 minus
series 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1961
anuary
arch
pril
me
©501 [4
505^3
513^9
511 .' 8
522^4
518 \1
536 '.9
531.4
545^5
538.7
553.4
547^3
559^6
554.0
566 ! 6
561.2
571 ! 8
568 .2
57?!-4
573 '.7
581?! 2
533! 6
599! 6
592! 6
608^8
606^4
618 '. 6
614.9
[R}r628.4
[H]r625.7
ily
aptember
1962
muary
iron. .........
)ril
me
!ly
kptember
'center. T r 1 1 T ,
52. Personal
51. Bank
debits outside income1
NYC, 3431
centers
55. Wholesale
53. Labor in- 54. Sales of
come in mining, retail stores prices except
farm products
manufacturing,
and foods
and construction^
(Ann . rate ,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
405.0
406.2
410.3
411.6
413.6
416.1
420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5
104.2
104.0
104.5
105.4
106.4
107.7
108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
111.7
112.1
17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
•18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
444.1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0
112.0
113.0
114.2
115.9
115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
2,148.0
2,085.5
2,095.6
2,198.1
2,150.7
2,105.4
2,276.8
2,189.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,246.9
2,320.5
454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1
117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8
120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019
100.5
100.5
100.5
©100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.0
2,354.9
2,239.6
2,322.3
2,451.1
2,312.7
2,328.6
2,430.2
2,372.5
r2,424.8
{«}P2,454.2
479.4
480.5
482.9
486.6
487.8
489.3
491.4
494.9
r497.9
O.P498.6
122.7
124.2
124.6
125.9
125.8
126.4
126.9
127.9
EJrl29.2
p!28.0
21,000
21,533
21,223
21,392
21,777
21,773
r21,935
[H}r22,266
r22,175
p21,536
101.1
101.1
101.0
101.1
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
101.2
[Hml01.4
*101.6
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1963
nuarv
.rch
,ril
ly
gUSt
tober
«eiriber. ......
1964
rch.
ril.. ........
He
ly
gust
bober
1
© * December 1960.
Week ended November 17.
2
28
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatec
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (C) and current highs, by (ED; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicate;
fl
revised; "p , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
61. Business
expenditures ,
new plant and
equipment ,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost 64. Book value
per dollar of of mfrs. ' inreal corporate ventories
GNP
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(Bil.
dol.)
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs .! in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
67. Bank rate:
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
1961
33^85
torch
April
May
©33.50
July
August. ........
34^70
October
35^40
101.8
102.4
102.3
100.5
100.3
99.5
99.1
98.5
99.1
98.9
99.0
©98.4
104.9
103.4
103*8
©102.3
53.7
53.7
53.5
53.4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
©18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8
42,109
42,035
42,041
©41,867
41,870
41,895
41,903
a, 987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774
4*.97
4^97
4.99
©4^96
1962
35170
March
April
May
June
July......
36 !95
38^5
September
October
37^95
December.
1963
36195
March
April
May
38!o5
July
AUPUflt • ........
40 166
September ......
October
41^20
December. ......
1964
January
42.55
March
April
May....
EJ43.50
July
August t . . . T . . . .
September ......
October
December
a44^55
a46.15
99.4
99.0
98.8
99.8
99.8
0100.4
100.1
100.2
99.6
100.1
99.5
100.1
99.7
99.6
99.0
98.9
98.8
98.3
98.8
99.5
99.3
98.9
99.1
98.6
97.9
97.8
98.3
97.5
97.5
98.1
97.7
97.5
r98.3
P98.9
102 .*9
103.' 4
103.* 5
103.' 2
104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6
104^2
104.9
ED105.4
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
52,324
52,784
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
r60.8
©P&).9
(NA)
21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
21.6
r21.6
E1P21.6
(NA)
53,212
53,791
54,315
54,727
55,220
55,590
56,073
56,508
15157,021
(NA)
4.W
5 '.03
4!^
G35.0;
5l6i
5^6
5^6
5 ".6
4*<
4*'
4.
29
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
eries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by |H"| ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month
82. Federal 83. Federal 84. Federal 95. Surplus
cash payments cash recash surplus (+), or
deficit (-),
to public
ceipts from (+), or
public
deficit (-) Fed. income
and product
account
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.)
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
92. Military 99. New
orders,
prime contract awards defense
to U.S. bus- products
iness firms
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1961
jbruary, .
)ril
lly
1962
nuarv.
ril
ne
ly
ptember
1963
nuary
ril
Ly
yfremher ......
rember
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8
110.2
125.7
118.0
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7
108.6
110.6
108.9
110.2
112.2
111.9
114.9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5
-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
-10.8
-3.3
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9
-4.2
129.6
117.2
120.3
123.2
110.3
120.0
126.9
117.1
124.1
119.3
114.8
123.4
115.3
126.6
105.1
114.4
116.4
110.0
114.1
113.1
-14.8
+6.2
-5.0
+3.4
-5.2
-5.6
-10.5
-7.1
-10.0
-6.2
-6>!6
-4^7
-3^4
-2!6
-4.4
-4^6
-2 !9
-4^5
-4^8
-1.0
-o'.i
+0.6
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,653
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
1.45
2.00
1.48
1.85
1.82
1.73
2.11
1.96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1.82
1,718
1,319
1,435
1,885
1,142
1,246
1,731
1,240
1,044
1,684
1,818
1,158
4,434
4,181
4,230
4,486
4,059
4,024
4,864
4,300
3,928
4,553
4,952
3,974
3,073
2,135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1.99
2.05
2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53
1,565
1,325
1,258
1,304
1,530
1,298
1,255
1,512
1,221
2,038
1,125
1,182
4,642
4,253.
3,905
4,108
4,601
4,378
4,834
4,497
4,215
5,176
4,138
4,090
2,343
2,571
2,168
1,973
2,250
2,125
2,506
2,704
2,688
2,224
1,566
2,041
2.89
2.09
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
1,071
2,067
1,030
1,516
2,192
1,030
1,691
716
1,165
(NA)
4,370
5,484
3,731
4,592
4,941
4,239
5,274
4,147
4,472
(NA)
2,337
2,854
1,603
2,529
2,465
1,663
3,016
1,915
2,291
(NA)
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
rl.86
r2.00
p2.10
1964
*ch.
•11
rbember
ember
-2.*4
r-7.8
p-5.*2
30
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply
93. Free
reserves*
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Percent)
1961
January. .......
February
torch
April
May
June
July
August. ........
September
Pe^eiTiih^TT - T - 1 T t
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
+0.07
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.28
+0.21
0.00
+0.21
+0.42
+0.28
+0.55
+0.28
+0.37
+0.79
+0.46
+0.46
+0.64
+0.55
+0.45
+0.50
+0.58
+0.53
+0.71
+0.44
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
0.00
+0.14
+0.21
+0.27
-0.20
+0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-0.14
+0.34
+0.48
+0.41
+0.57
+0.91
+0.91
+0.64
+0.13
+0.51
+0.38
+0.34
+0.38
+0.71
+0.87
+0.95
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
+0.27
+0.27
+0.34
+0.20
+0.27
+0.40
+0.53
+0.13
+0.26
+0.46
+0.79
-0.20
+0.69
+0.69
+0.76
+0.48
+0.48
+0.63
+0.71
+0.66
+0.54
+0.73
+1.15
+0.34
+171
+91
+98
+162
+78
+118
+132
+79
+90
P+103
+0.39
0.00
+0.26
+0.19
0.00
+0.71
+0.71
+0.32
+0.51
p+0.38
+0.83
+0.45
+0.37
+0.37
+0.37
+0.81
+0.73
+0.62
+0.68
p+0.72
110. Total
private
borrowing
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change,
business
loans
(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
million dollars) million dollars) billion dollars)
1
Revised
30,856
30,228
36,664
33,276
40,928
33,084
41,464
35,528
42,712
36,388
53,184
37,728
47,644
38,924
50,608
40,524
46,404
39,584
55,320
39,048
57,324
40,012
61,072
38,920
46,280
43,252
63,876
44,164
55,324
44,676
+0.54
-0.77
+0.92
-0.37
-0.31
-1.50
+2.18
+1.00
+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72
1962
March
April
May
July
September ......
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June « . . .
July
August
October
November
+2.90
+1.51
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
+2.26
+1.01
+1.01
+1.57
+3.18
+1.74
+1.97
+2.03
+2.94
+4.67
+6.10
+5.34
1964
February
March
April
May
July
September »,.,.,
November
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
+2.26
+3.05
+0.05
+1.81
+5.60
+3.88
+3.84
+4.75
+5.24
+1.91
31
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Lovr values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by fffl ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance— Continued
113. Change,
consumer
installment
debt
Year and
month
(Annual rate,
billion dollars)
114. Treasury
bill rate*
( Percent )
115. Treasury
bond yields*
(Percent)
116. Corporate
bond yields*
(Percent)
1961
January
February.
March
April.
sfey
July
September
1962
January
«larch
\.pril
June
fuly
Iviffust. ........
Dctober
lovember .......
117. Municipal
bond yields*
(Percent)
118. Mortgage
yields*
(Percent)
-0.36
-0.89
+0.07
-2.09
+0.04
+0.30
+0.10
+1.01
+0.78
+2.03
+2.65
+3.98
2.30
2.41
2.42
2.33
2.29
2.36
2.27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62
3.89
3.81
3.78
3.80
3.73
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.02
3.98
3.98
4.06
4.63
4.43
4.36
4.56
4.61
4.73
4.74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4.48
4.56
3.40
3.31
3.45
3.50
3.43
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3.41
3.47
6.00
5.89
5.82
5.77
5.74
5.72
5.68
5.68
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.69
+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82
2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86
4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87
4.55
4.54
4.42
4.31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28
3.34
3.21
3.14
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07
5.69
5.68
5.65
5.64
5.60
5.59
5.58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53
+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52
2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4. 04
4.07
4,11
4.14
4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4.35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4.36
4.42
4.49
3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27
5.52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+5.80
+5.22
+6.16
(NA)
3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49
4.49
3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46
5.45
1963
Lpril
. ...
fay
Fuly
^Ufl'US't . . . t t . t . T
Fovember
1964
larch.
.pril
lay
'vine
xurxiff'fc . . » t « . . . .
lep'teinber ......
ictober •
oveniber .......
32
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [E]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
86. Exports 87. General
excluding
imports,
military aid total
shipments ,
total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus
series 87)
89. Excess, 81. Consumer
receipts (+) prices
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
94. Construction
contracts,
total
value
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders , durable goods
industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations,
manufacturing1
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(Bil. dol.)
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
43.01
42.94
42.52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.80
46.42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.6
107.7
107.9
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.2
(NA)
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
(NA)
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
r51.37
r52.l6
P52.86
1961
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
March
April
1,795.4
1,761.7
May
1,835.6
July
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
October
1,724.6
November. ......
December . . 1 . . t » 1,838.7
1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1,404.1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5
+341.8
+489.5
+330.3
+430.4
+357.6
+484.9
+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2
984.8
2,117.5
1,960.4
1,912.7
1,892.6
1,784.7
1,823.0
1,894.6
1,979.6
1,946.4
1,944.6
2,049.4
1,091.6
1,497.4
1,486.7
1,417.2
1,420.2
1,420.5
1,457.5
1,508.3
1,450.4
1,458.8
1,471.9
1,480.0
-106.8
+620.1
+473.7
+495.5
+472.4
+364.2
+365.5
+386.3
+529.2
+487.6
+472.7
+569.4
2,037.3
2,028.7
2,077.5
2,046.0
2,052.1
2,004.3
2,111.4
2,084.9
2,271.2
(NA)
1,421,8
1,445.3
1,522.9
1,542.1
1,548.1
1,505.5
1,589.6
1,592.2
1,557.5
(NA)
+615.5
+583.4
+554.6
+503.9
+504.0
+498.8
+521.8
+492.7
+713.7
(NA)
March. .
April
May
July
August. ........
October
-486
2
+47
-700
-1,231
7*. 51
7.39
7.66
7.*63
1962
January. .......
1963
January
March
April
May
July
October
November .......
-748
-440
-334
-681
-1,062
-1,295
-i53
-134
6 '.82
6.81
6*.87
7!29
7!(D6
7.53
8!o2
8.7f
1964
March
April
Ifey
June
July
AUftUS'fc t T . * T » t • t
October
-85
-733
p-565
December
x
See
8
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
8^96
(NA)
Basic Data
33
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs, by OH ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
International comparisons of industrial production
Year and
month
47. United
States,
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
123. Canada, 122. United
Kingdom,
industrial
industrial
production
production
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
industrial
production
126. France, 127. Italy,
industrial
industrial
production
production
128. Japan,
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
104
104
104
107
109
110
112
113
112
113
115
116
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109
117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
155
154
158
159
162
165
169
172
172
175
176
177
115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110
122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127
126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132
133
132
122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160
182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
r!32
r!34
135
136
136
129
128
132
133
133
139
r!34
r!36
r!36
r!38
r!40
r!39
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217
128
128
129
130
131
.132
133
134
134
p!32
' 133
134
133
135
132
133
133
P135
(NA)
123
123
123
r!24
r!23
r!23
r!22
p!23
(NA)
139
139
140
r!39
r!41
r!38
r!38
p!38
(NA)
r!42
r!44
r!45
r!40
r!50
r!43
r!47
146
p!42
(NA)
140
139
139
Ul
140
141
132
132
p!41
(NA)
r!73
169
173
169
166
162
164
(NA)
217
226
223
224
228
235
235
r233
p238
(NA)
(1957-59*
100)
1961
ferch
iDrll
fey
ruly
^UPTlf!"t * T t T - r * * t
)ctober
Joveirib^i"T T T T f tr
1962
brch
T)ril
[ay
eptemher * . r . * .
ecember* T , . , , ,
1963
pril
une
1964
5bruary
irch
aril
iv.
me
lly
icmst
jtober
•"•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Analytical Measures
34
Table 3.-DISTRIBUT10N OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
tov.
1948
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
May
1960
July
1957
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
22
1
2
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
*18
0
3
19
16
2
14
2
1
3
2
1
3
4
11
1
2
2
3
1
1
4
1
23
0
23
0
4
19
21
2
X
18
0
20
'i
i
i
12
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
23
0
23
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
2
•• •
1
1
1
3
3
5 months
•
4
1
2
3 months
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
1
11
9
2
3
3
11
27
1
1
2
...
1
2
2
3
5
2
3
4
4
11
45
11
27
11
36
6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948
Jan.
1953
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
1
4
4
11
36.
"i
2
3
3
11
27
3
e
i]
5f
Current expansion
July
1964
Aug.
1964
Sept.
1964
Oct.
1964
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7 months
6
1
17
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
19
16
23
4
23
9
4
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
2
1
*18
6
4
4
4
2
4
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
2
1
1
9
10
1
1
"i
2
3
2
4
23
17
7
1
2
1
2
1
"4
6
2
3
7
23
26
23
30
L
]
]
1(
i:
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
1
...
6 months
3 months
Benchmark month
Percent of series high on benchmark date .
1
1
2
1
5
11
45
"i
4
2
4
2
3
6
5
3
2
3
11
55
11
27
11
27
'9
11
82
1
1
2
7
11
64
1
"l
1
7
11
64
i
4
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitte
from the distribution.
X
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War ar
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
35
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.--21 indus.
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
9-mo. interva
1-mo, interval
D6. New orders, dur. goods Indus.—36 indus.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations
17 indus. ,NICB
interval •"•"•!-Q interval)
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reportin
higher profits--700 cos. (1-Q interval)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 80 indus
D23. Industrial materials prices—13 indus. mtls.
D5. jnitial claims, State unempl. insur.-47 areas
inverted.)
ii in in m i in in in ii in in In In In it«ftfftiJn111 it lii lii lii ii hi III in ii
48
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
"How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
36
Analytical Measures
CHART 2
DIFFUSION INDEXES:
1948 TO P R E S E N T - C o n .
NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(JulyHApr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Perc
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments-SO Indus.
(6-mo. interval—- 1-mo. interval
)
.100
50
0
D47, Industrial production-24 Indus
(6-mo. interval —— 1-mo, interval-
ilOO
50
0
D58. Vy'holesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
(6-mo. interval— 1-mo. interval
)
100
50
0
D54. Sales of retail stores-24 types of stores
(9-mo. interval— 1-mo, interval
)
-100
-50
-0
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1961 1962 1963 1964
37
Analytical Measures
:HART3B DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
D35. Net sales, all mfrs.--800 cos.
(percent-4-Q interval)
100
50
-1 o
D36 New orders, dur. goods mfrs.—400 cos,
(percent-4-Q interval)
TOO
50
0
D48. Carloadings—19 infrd. commodity groups
(percent-4-Q interval)
100
50
0
A
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q interval)
•f.5
L
SI/
D61. New plant and equipment expend.—17-22 indus.
(percent-1-Q interval)
18 1949 1950
1951 1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961
are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (July 1964)
D48 (Sept. 1964)
D 6 1 (August 1964)
"How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
2nd Q 1963 - 2nd Q 1964 4th Q 1963- 4th Q 1964
4th Q 1962- 4th Q 1963 4th Q 1963- 4th Q 1964
IstQ 1964- 2ndQ 1964 3rd Q 1964 - 4th Q 1964
1962 1963
1964
38
Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest mont
6-month figures are placed on the /4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; ^-quarter figur
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figur
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, whi
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
Year and
month
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)
Dl. Average workweek,
manufac turing
(21 industries)
1-month
interval
9 -month
interval
1-month
interval
9 -month
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
NICE (17 industries)
3 -quart e]
interval
1-quarter
interval
1961
March.
April
Mav
July
September
October
December
1962
February
March
April
May
June •
July
October
December
1963
February
April
May
July
October ........
95.2
71.4
54.8
81.0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73.8
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8
38.1
85.7
76.2
95.2
90.5
100.0
95.2
90.5
61.9
95.2
88.1
92.9
33.3
48.6
66.7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3
59.7
56.9
66.7
80.6
72.2
88.9
81.9
83.3
79.2
86.1
76.4
80.6
14.3
73.8
73.8
76.2
21.4
28.6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5
85.7
81.0
52.4
31.0
50.0
50.0
38.1
35.7
21.4
33.3
50.0
26.2
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
52.4
73.8
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
42.9
66.7
57.1
21.4
83.3
59.5
40.5
81.0
71.4
66.7
73.8
59.5
66.7
38.1
69.0
69.0
76.2
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
0.0
85.7
28.6
78.6
35.7
21.4
61.9
69.0
r26.2
P73.8
78.6
45.2
42.9
r8l.O
r40.5
p83.3
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
r40.3
r52.8
P52.8
76.4
83.3
80.6
r75.0
72.2
P62.5
53
c
59
(.
*76
1
47
(•
65
L
*32
I
*82
i
59
47
i
59
*59
(
53
1964
February
March.
April
\tev
July
October
47
71
*65
(
Analytical Measures
39
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
3rcent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA, not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(around 700
corporations)
Year and
month
1-quarter
interval
D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
(80 industries)1
1-month
interval
9-month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
9-month
interval
1-month
interval
9 -month
interval
1961
47
3ril
'60
me
!lv
*58
*56
>vember
86.9
96.2
85.6
72.5
81.9
40.0
42.5
81.2
40.0
46.9
87.5
55.0
97.5
97.5
97.5
97.5
95.6
81.2
76.2
73.7
71.2
67.5
70.0
62.5
42.3
76.9
84.6
73.1
53.8
46.2
53.8
46.2
61.5
38.5
15.4
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
53.8
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
61.5
30.8
59.6
17.0
78.7
44.7
53.2
66.0
46.8
55.3
51.1
80.9
74.5
27.7
59.6
53.2
64.9
85.1
72.3
89.4
100.0
95.7
87.2
97.9
91.5
80.9
25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4
17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0
76.9
38.5
38.5
15.4
42.3
26.9
23.1
34.6
61.5
53.8
84.6
61.5
30.8
30.8
30.8
30.8
23.1
23.1
30.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
53.8
57.7
42.6
83.0
38.3
51.1
42.6
19.1
66.0
55.3
42.6
39.4
69.1
40.4
83.0
57.4
51.1
34.0
48.9
44.7
40.4
25.5
25.5
42.6
79.8
59.6
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
53.8
53.8
50.0
38.5
50.0
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
76.9
69.2
53.8
61.5
69.2
61.5
53.8
53.8
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
57.7
76.9
23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
44.7
61.7
31.9
34.0
38.3
68.1
74.5
57.4
63.8
87.2
48.9
34.0
85.1
59.6
57.4
74.5
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
61.5
57.7
38.5
61.5
38.5
50.0
65.4
61.5
53.8
76.9
2
53.8
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
84.6
2
84.6
85.1
12.8
66.0
75.5
51.1
51.1
59.6
57.4
55.3
34.0
69.1
70.2
69.1
76.6
87.2
72.3
1962
54
)ril
*47
lly
*48
*56
1963
50
irch
)ril
*59
Lly
'?6
itbber...
ivenihfer , T
*55
1964
57
(brtiary
•
,ril
'60
ly....
*57
cember
J-The diffusion index is based on 82 components, January 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to Auist 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.
18 components and 5 comDsites, representing an additional 23 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6).
2
Average for November 17, 18, and 19.
Analytical Measures
40
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figure
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figure
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, whic
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most o
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "MA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees D47. Index of industrial
in nonagricultural
production
establishments
(24 industries)
(30 industries)
D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing industries)
1-month
interval
1-month
interval
6 -month
interval
9 -month
interval
1-month
interval
6 -month
interval
1-month
interval
45.0
33.3
61.7
56.7
86.7
88.3
70.0
70.0
56.7
71.7
81.7
63.3
20.0
30.0
66.7
78.3
90.0
90.0
86.7
86.7
83.3
75.0
81.7
81.7
56.3
50.0
62.5
70.8
72.9
91.7
77.1
72.9
54.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
52.1
66.7
87.5
93.8
91.7
87.5
95.8
91.7
91.7
87.5
87.5
95.8
60.4
22.9
.79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4
41.7
58.3
62.5
68.8
79.2
85.4
87.5
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6
39.1
47.8
41.3
65.2
45.7
37.0
50.0
56.5
60.9
39.1
47.8
56.5
37.0
34.8
37.0
45.7
47.8
47.8
39.1
45.7
52.2
50.0
54.3
56.5
55.0
80.0
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
45.0
33.3
43.3
85.0
88.3
83.3
76.7
70.0
71.7
58.3
38.3
35.0
43.3
40.0
51.7
25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4
83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
69.6
43.5
52.2
58.7
45.7
43.5
39.1
41.3
54.3
34.8
45.7
39.1
60.9
60.9
58.7
54.3
60.9
47.8
32.6
45.7
39.1
30.4
23.9
26.1
63.3
48.3
83.3
66.7
85.0
61.7
75.0
48.3
43.3
65.0
45.0
70.0
56.7
70.0
71.7
71.7
73.3
75.0
73.3
58.3
58.3
45.0
63.3
76.7
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3
50.0
54.2
52.1
70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
39.1
43.5
37.0
41.3
58.7
63.0
47.8
r60.9
58.7
r73.9
69.6
60.9
30.4
45.7
54.3
52.2
50.0
58.7
71.7
76.1
73.9
69.6
67.4
67.4
43.3
83.3
76.7
63.3
60.0
70.0
70.0
r43.3
r68.3
P46.7
80.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
76.7
r73.3
P73.3
58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
r79.2
r68.8
r50.0
P58.3
91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5
r89.6
P79.2
79.2
100.0
85.4
r83.3
r75.0
P79.2
58.7
63.0
45.7
63.0
43.5
45.7
65.2
67.4
r60.9
P58.7
73.9
67.4
60.9
50.0
60.9
63.0
P63.0
6 -month
interval
1961
March
April
May
June
July
October
November
58.3*
a. 7
1962
April
May
June
July
August .........
October
1963
March
April
May
June
July
August
October. .......
a.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
1964
March
April..
May
July
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
r52.1
r33.3
p8l.2
Analytical Measures
41
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 19(51 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available.
Year and
month
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
,(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
4-quarter
interval
4-quarter
interval
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1961
pril
ay
72
82
*72
*78
36!s
89^5
-28
'74
*83
*73
*78
68.4
73.7
+79
82
*S8
*82
*86
73 .*7
89^5
+125
'si
*86
78
82
63 .*2
89^5
+62
80
*88
*76
*84
57.9
94.7
r^66
*76
"so
*74
*74
63^2
89!5
-96
72
*74
71
70
42^1
68^4
r-67
*74
*82
*76
*76
63^2
63 .*2
r+29
"?6
80
77
*76
73.7
78.9
-i-39
*74
*80
*76
*76
57.9
68 [4
+44
*82
84
*82
"so
78 '.9
r+40
*84
*85
*82
*84
73.7
r-13
(NA)
87
(NA)
*84
68.4
r+34
*84
94.7
e+252
lly
llgUSt
Dveiriber
28.1
37.5
46^9
53^1
56.2
62.'5
59 .*4
65^6
65.6
62.5
68^8
68.*8
65^6
65!6
46 '.9
68\B
40.6
50.0
65^6
75.0
75.0
71.9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62^5
50.'6
(NA)
75.0
1962
anuarv
3bruary
oril
lly
leust.
1963
irch. .........
aril
lly
stober ........
jcember
1964
3ril
*86
me
ilv
jtober
68.8
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT
(D6)
Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
1-month spans
1963
9-month spans
1964
1963
1964
36 industry components
51 53 53 69 33 62 56 44 58 61 44 50 64 40 53 53
Percent rising
All durable goods industries.
Primary metals;
Blast furnaces, steel mills
,
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
.
Fabricated metal products:
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire prod
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equip.*.,....
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
*
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
+ +
+ + +
- +
+ -
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
O
-
-
+
O
+
67 64 53 67 62 72 59 58 83 78 76 83 81 75 72 62
+ + + + - -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
-
_ _ + + - - + 4- 4- + +
+ - + + 4- +
- - + + + +
- + +
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
4_
+
+
+
+
4+
4-4+ +
+
+
+
4-
4-4+ -
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+ -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4- - 44 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
4-4-4- 44-4-4-
+ + +
+ + +
4-4-4-
4-44-444-4-
444-
+
+
4-
4-
+
44-
444-
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
4-
- + +
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
- 4- +
+
+
+
+
+
- + +
+ +
+ +
4- +
+
444-
4>
44-
+
+
O
4-
4-
4+
4 - 4 - 0
444 - 4 - -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+•
-I-
+
+
-
-I-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
-
O
+
-
+
-
- o _ + „
+ -
+ + +
+
+
+
- +
+ +
- +
+ +
+ -
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
4+
4-
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 -
-
-
- - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - -
before the direction of change is deter-
rt
^
H*«
o
(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
9-month spans
1-month spans
O
O
uo a
>
0
%
-p
?
>
3 % 8 &
£ , 0
I*
ft
!>i C ,-H
bD 0,
c $ Q ) c i C i t j ! A z J z l z i < D C
*~3 !*-> S <J S ^ ^ ^ C O
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
C , Q
*H
?H
>i C i-H
bO
Q ^ P ^ S o J S | - 3 ^ < ^ C
-P
J J
O
1
ft
O
>
0
O Q )
Z Q
1
1
-P
>
O 2 :
r-l
bO
P, -P
1
-P
1
>
7
°
0 C
8 &
a z
I
0
1 i: S I
*
t-t
!H
§ if
§
fi
rH
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
444+
44-
4-
_
4444444-
4-
44-
+
44-
4-
444-
44_
44i44-
_
4-
_
-
44-
4-
4-
_
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
-
be CU
1
^
I
-P
5 $\ 8
r>
O
§ &iD
&
-P
81 $
>-*
;f
H
.S-,
83 78 86 86 85 85
99 95 89 85 78 80 78 69 71
29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76 53 35 90 41 76 73
rH
3
Dec-Sep
Jun-Jul
Jul-Aug
d)
CO
1964
1963
1964
1963
23 industry components1
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
444-
_
4-
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing)
Textile weavers
4-
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery" composite
-
4444-
+
4-
Electronics
Telephone companies
'
8
°
•
...
0
444+
+
-
44-
_
4
+
-+_
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
- 4 - 4 -
_
+
+
+
+
+
j
i
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - - - 4 -
+
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 0
4-
-
+
+_
+
+
-
+
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - - 4 - 4 4-4"
+
4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 -
4"
4"
"h
4*
4-4-
4-
4/4-
-
4-
4*
-
-
4 - 0 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
_
4-
4 - - -
4-
4-
0 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
;
4+
4444-
44444+
4-
4-
4444-
4444-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
44-
44-
44-
44-
4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
44-
|+
4-
4-
4-
44-
444-
+
+
+
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
44444-
4-
IT
4-
1-
+
44-
44-
444444-
1h
44-
444-
444-
444-
44-
44-
44-
-
4-
-
44-
4-
-
0
-
4-
-1-
444-
44-
444-
444-
444-
44-
44-
4-
4444-
444-
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
^•The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table l+.
2
Based on 80 industries to August 1963; on 79 industries, September 1963 to March 196/4; and on 78 components thereafter.
O
»•—
s
n>
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
9-month spans
1-month spans
1963
13 industrial materials components
bfl
<J
P« -P
CQ O
i
5
J
5
i i
3 $>
1 & Si
0
Tallow (lb )
*
^
>»
.
-
I
\
I*
C2
3
rH
QO
PU
-P
1-3
HO
<aj
CO
^3 t-a3i <;3i co<Di O0i
>>
C
rH
W) P,
I
-p
O
0
4-
+ 4-
+ +
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
r,,
£>
£i £i £i fii
0
C ,0 h
?H
P
8 1 a fi & fi § 13
-
Zinc (ib. )
ur ap ^y . ;...........
Hides (ib )
C
54 54 54 77 69 54 62 58 38 62 38 50 65 62 54 77 54
Percent rising
All industrial materials
Lead scrap (ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib. )
r-l
"-D
1963
1964
-
-
4-
-
-
4-
+
4-
-
4-
4-
-
-
O -
-
-
4+•
+
44-
-
o -
o
1964
^
a
I 3 §a«I
^j
1-3
1
-P
;j
^J
1
>
<n
CO
1
O
o
CD
1
C
1
62 54 54 62 62 62 62 54 58 77 62 69 62 69 69 85 85
-
-
-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
44-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
- +
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
1 ! 1 1 ! 1 11 11 1 1
4-
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
4-
4-
4-
+ :;*
44-
-
rt
^
O
+
-H
-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted (except for all-industry totals) by the Bureau of the Census before the
direction of change is determined.
Average for November 17, 18, and 19.
S
n>
n>
I V/ I l\l-Jl_M I— V-UIIIIIH
(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
9-month spans
1-month spans
,p
0)
1963
1964
26 area components
Pi 0)
O N
r-H
fafl
a
-P
>
"-3
I
C
<<
1
r-1
C/}
1
bo
O
1
Qj
tZ
1
-p
"3
qj'co
i-J
r)
<u
o
1963
o
0
<p
Q
1
>
G
,0
p,
Pi
^ C r - l b D P ^ - P
iH
;3
1-3
I
-P
> 0
^1 s1 g1 ^1 f 1 i 1^ 1s ^1 a1 s1 s1 a1
o c ^ o P i P i > 3 C i — iI b o P j - p >
< u c d < u _ s l C X . a i ; 3 ~ ' : 3 ( D O O
Q ^ f c S < $ S ^ » - 3 < 3 o } o ; s
8
43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76 51 51 60 57 55 34
bfl
^
<$
I
>
O
^;
ft
<y
c/j
I
O
4)
Q
-P
o
o
I
C
cd
PS
1964
> 0
o 0
2 Q
I
I
,0 Pi
d> cd
fc S
c , o PI PI > j p r - i t x o a - - p > o
£ £ : § £ g £ £ 3 $ 8 S £
i i i i i i i i i i i i
P l > > C r - l b J D C X - P > O C ^ J P l
c x i f l ^ ^ ^ c D o o c u a j a j . a j
<;S|-3|-3<jJcoo2:Q»-3EiHS
74 57 64 87 49 34 85 60 57 74 69 70 69 77 87 72
47 labor market areas-'- ........... ......
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16 Buffalo
11
1 New York
21
Philadelphia*
ft
??
+
44-
4-4-444_
4-
44_
4_
+
44-
44-
4- +4-4-
4-
4+
^
,
4-
_
.
4-
— 4-
+
-f-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
_ +
_ _
f
+
+
+
4-
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
1ft
10
?6
O
44-
5 Detroit
?*>
??
i £ Milwaukee
13
9
rt
^
H-.-
......... . .
44+
St Louis
4 - 4 4-
4-
+
4 - 4 -
+
4-
4-
4_
4444-
4+
4444-
_
_
+
4-
4-
+
44-4-44 - 4 - 4 -
4-
+
+
4-
4-
£
»-»
O
4-4-4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
SOUTH REGION
20 Atlanta
12
17 Dallas
14 Houston • . .
4-4-
4-
•.«««•••••«••..«•«••••«••«•••
+
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
+
j
"*"
+
+
+ 4 - 4 _ _ +
*
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+
WEST REGION
2
?/,
6
IP
Los Anseles
Portland
San Francisco
_
Seattle*
-
+
44-
-
+
4-
_
4-
_
44-
4- + _
4-
4-4+ 4-
+
4-44+
4 - - 4-
4_
_
+
-
+ +
_
-
+
+
- -
+
4 - -
+
+
- = rising; o = unchanged; 4- = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in October 1964.
**Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in October 1964.
x
The percent rising is based on. 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
ON
(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
6 -month spans
1-month spans
1963
30 industry components
iH
bD
7C iH"?
£
3
1963
1964
ex -p >
« 8
bD
CX
3
$>
o
& a
ii
CD o
~ 3 t > cdL , 2ex < ,cd
! S l rJ~ o "3H 3 ^< < C
/ D C QJ S Q)
Q
r-H
^J
'-a
bD
3
<!
CX -P
<U
O
C/D O
< u c d < i ) ^ d P < | ^- i^ ^< ' ^ ^C^ ODOW2 o:
£
£
I!
C , Q
<i)
lcd
1
fn
^
1
1
1
> s C r - l
1
1
b D C X - P
1
1
1
!
Q ^ f i H - S < i J S ^
75 48 43 65 45 70 43 83 77 63 60 70 70 43 68 47
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Fabricated metal products
.
+
0
4-
+
4-
0
+
O
+
+
O
0
-
4-
+
O
+
-
+
0
+
4-
0
+
+
+
-
O
1964
4
-
+
-
0
+
4
-
0
0
>
0
1
1
>
O
!S
O
CP
O
^
5
C , Q
0
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
+
O
0
0
0
0
+
0
_
4-
-
+
0
+
-
O
0
+
0
-i-
0
_
4-
O
4-
+
+
0
Contract construction
Federal government
State and local government
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
-
4
-
+
0
-
+
+
0
-
+
- k - 0 0 0
+
-
k
+
-
+
+
0 4 -
-
4-
4-
-
-
a ^ f - i >
C
^ ^ j < U O O < l ) c d c ri J c d P j a >l P
l - 3 < l J C O O S P l l - 3 | J H S < l { S ^
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
0
-
+
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
-
+
-
-
+
-
o
+
+
O
- 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
0
_
+
+ + -
+ +
0
0
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
- 4 -
H - - k - Q
-
+
+ +
4
-
-
+
-
4
0
- H -
+
-
4
+
-
-
0
0
-
+
_
4
+
-
+
--
-
0 - 4 -
+
+
4-
tt;tt+*!t;
O
+
4 - 4 - - h
4-
4-
0
+
4-
4-
0
*
i - 4 - 4 r - 4 - 4 r 4 - 4 - - 4 -
0
+
0
4
-
4-
-
0
-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
+ +
+ +
4-
0
- -
4
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
0
-
4
4
-
-
-
4
-
-
-
4
-
-
+
-
+
+
-
f*.
-
-
o'
-
+
^
0 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - -
0
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-.
_ _ 4 - 4 - f 4 - 4 -
+-
+
+
^J
+
+
4-
O
_ _ 4 . _ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 .
4-
-
-
+
_
_
_
_
-
-
-
4
4
-
-
4
-
-
+
+
O
4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 0
f2
i-t
- » - 4 - 4 - o 4 - 4 O
$>
rt
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
+
-k-
-
-
-
-k-
+
-f
4-
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - -
-+
-
o
4
-
- - 4 - 4 - 0
- 4 - 4 -
- 4 -
- k - O
-
-
4-
0
0 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
>
72 73 75 73 58 58 45 63 77 80 75 80 83 77 73 73
4-
O
b O C X - p
-
- +
4-
+
^ ' ^ s C r H
r - H b D C X - P > O C
•§*
-
4-
!H
£i &i £i %i &i i2 2i 3i &i 8i gi ai
_
_
_
_
-
_
-
4
-
-
0
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
CO
(D47) Index of Industrial Production
6-month spans
1-month spans
1963
24 industry components
,-H
p
*-*
1
C
bO
d
^
i
r-4
CX
<y
uy
i
bO
-P
>
o o
C) 'z.
i
i
ft
-P
0
0)
&
I
>
£ 5 5 & 8 a
C ,0 ^ £H >i • C i-H b f l f t - P > 0
l Q J j i l f t . g l J J j Q J C j . O Q )
-^>C"^S<i5SH3|~3<JcocD2Q
|g
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
4-
4-
O
4.
+
4-
1
1
0
C ,0
^i
£H
> » C r H b O f t - P
t>
< u a J < i > . c a f t , g i 3 r * : 3 < D o b
Q t - o l i H 2 < t j S t - 3 ' - 3 < 5 C O O 2
73 69 58 65 50 77 58 79 71 83 71 62 79 69 50 58
All industrial production
1964
1963
1964
H
bD
C
oJ
»-3
ft
<u
ft
-P
>
0
C . O
^
?H
f > > C r - l b O f t - P
>
0
C d C U J l l f t G l ^ ^ ^ Q J W O Q )
^ f c S < ^ 2 » - 3 | - 3 < ^ W O 2 : Q
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
>
1
i
^ >> C
O < u a 5 0 ) j i l f t j d d
oj ft ij ^ j j ^ j Q j o
fe £, <aj 2 !-3 ^ • ^ C O O 2 : Q t - 3 f e S < ! S ' - a
r - 4 b D f t - P > O C ^ 2 f H ! H t
i C
92 92 83 92 77 79 73 83 83 92 96 85 92 88 90 79
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 " 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
DURABLE GOODS
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
4-4-
4-
4
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-4-
4—
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4-44 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
.
.... .....
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
+
4-
—
—
4-
4-
—
4 - 4 - 4 -
—
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - —
—
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
. .
4-
—
—
...
-t-
Lumber and products
4-
Furniture and fixtures
Mi s c ellaneous
44-
—
4-
44-
O
4- 44-4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
—
4-4-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
—
4-
4-
^
4-1-
—
4-
4-
—
4-4-
4-
AlT
4-
"
+
s
o
NONDURABLE GOODS
4.
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather a n d products. .....
Paper and printing
Paper and products
«•
....
.
—
•
—
4 - 0
4-
4-
+
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
J
—
4-
44f
n>
C/)
MAMA
4-
—
4-
4 - 4 - NA
—
NA
4-
4 - 4 - MA MA
4-
+
_L.
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
44-
4-
4-
4-
4—
44-
°
Food and beverages
4-
444-
44-
4-4-
44 - 4 - 4 -
_l_
4--t-_i_MA
-t-t-WAMA
4-
4-
NA
MAMA
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-4-
'4-
4.
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - NA
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
MA
4-
4-
4-
44-
4"
4"
—
4-
44-
4—
4-
4-
4-
—
— 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - NA NA
4-
4-
4-
4-
—
—
o
NA
MINERALS
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+
—
—
—
- 4 - O 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+ 4 " 4 -
4~
—
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
-
—
—
—
4-
_ -
-NA
4-
—
—
—
O
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
-
-
4-
+
+
+
+
-
0
+
+
-
4-
+
4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - N A
+
_
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
0 4 -
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4NA
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + N A
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - - falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA = not available;
•'•The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
^$
ft
H*«
o
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
00
(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
1-month spans
9-month spans
1963
1964
1963
196-4
24. retaix store components
67 65 25 58 54 77
Percent rising...
All retail sales.
-
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store mdse.).....
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers...
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
.
Passenger car and other automotive dealers.
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
-f- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
mined.
71 52 52 67 67 46 52 33 81
+ +
- +
+ +
+ -
-
+ + -
85 77 60 52 62
71 92 83 77 79 100 85 83 75 79
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
4-
-
- o
-f-
-
-t
+
+
-I+
+
+
+
+
+
-
- + +
-
O
-
+
+
+
-
rt
^
>-*•
o
s
o
i
+ +
o +
- o
- +
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
before the direction of change
is deter-
(D58) Index of Wholesale Prices, All Manufacturing
6 -month spans
1-month spans
i—(
bfl
1963
1964
1963
23 manufacturing industries
D<
Z 3 A 8 1
i J bo i 43 5 3 CO<U OO
o
C X > f - i ^ > s P r - l b O O
- P > 0
r-J
bfl
1964
A -P
>
O
a
^1 -31 </15 81 :§1 a1
1 Q< u^ ef dc aS ) <j ld SQ ^. i' i- ^3 r<i Op <Q u Oo 2b
l
1
~ ^ C » - i 2
O C ^ Q
l
^
^i
K
l S
f-t
h
3
<
- 3 < J j O Q O 2 Q
> > C r H b D P 4 - P >
48 61 59 74 70 61 59 63 46 63 44 46 65 67 61 59
-+ O O 4 - 4 - +
o o 0 +
C
ed
HD
,0
0)
Cn
h
3
g
fn
ft
<U
!>>
oj
g
C
d
H^
<dC fo toja fca i>> ^C r-l3
t-O
1
i-H
PH
1
bD
S
1
ft
<J
1
-P
2
i
>
t-3
1
O
1-3
1
C
5 -3 w 8 S S •§
t $o* -p8
> o
£ a
1 1 1s 1
52 50 59 72 76 74 70 67 67 74 67 61 50 61 63 63
DURABLE GOODS
Lumber and wood products
N
T
M
t 11 "
% +
f
'
ine
-I-'T
1
d
0
t
^
" ***
" "
+ 0
0 +
- +
o
o
o
4-
-t-
-
+
4
+
- - - 4 -
+
4-
+
4 - 0
+
-
0
-
- 4 -
+
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
o -
_
_
_
0
0
4-
- - + + + + +
-
- _
4.
4-
+
+
+
+
+
o
-
-
0
-
+
0 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - -
+ + 4o + +
+
0
-
o +
+
Motor vehicles
-1-
-k-
4-
+
-k-
0
O
-
- +
+ Q
0
4-
+
+
+
4-
0
4-
4-
- 4 - 0 0
+
- - -
O
O
4 - 4 - 4
+
0 4 - O 4 -
+
-
-
-
-
0
o
-
4
4
-
4
-
-
4
4
4
4
0
4
-
0 4 -
-
+ +
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
-
- _
-
-
0
+
+
-
-
+
-
-
-
s
n>
NONDURABLE GOODS
Wool products
+
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products....
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
mined.
0
O
44-
0
44-
+
:::::;
0
4-
+
o
0 4 - 4 0 4 - + 0 - 4 - 4 4 - O O 4 - 4 - 4 - O
O -
O 0 0 +
4-
o
o
4
0
0
0
-4
+
+
0
-k-
-
+
+
-
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
4
-
-
-
4
+
4
-
-
4
-
4 -
0 4 - +
- 0
+
-
-
-
4
-
o -f
-f
-f
- 4 0 0
a
- 4 4-
-
-
4-
0 4 - 4 - 4 - -
4 - 4 - -
+
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
+ + +
before the direction of change
is deter-
vo
Cyclical Patterns
50
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
CHART 4
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
lnde>
I II M M II I II I I I I I M I | I II II II I
Reference trough dates
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus
Index
Reference trough dates
105r
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
*100
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24. Mfrs. new orders
mach. and equip, indus.
-12
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+42
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For seri»
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter
set'at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
Hee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
^or the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|
51
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present3-(Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
|TTTTTJ
Index
I | I l i l l j I III I | I I I I I 11 I
Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
I I I II I I I 11 I IT I I III
Reference trough dates
13. New business
incorporations
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
:•*
•*
OL+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
i an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference oeak quarter is
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
^>ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
52
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present* (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
Index
M M I I M II II M I II III I M III M I III M
I
I
i
i
-^- Reference trough dates
43. Unemployment rate
total /InverteaV
nor
10541. Employees in nonagri
establishments
*ioo
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
+42
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serie
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i:
set-at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
*See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
53
:HART 4i COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
11111111111111111111111111111111111
Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
^
Inde:
Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
0
+6
+12+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from reference troughs
Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
t "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
»ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
54
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Inde
Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
•
Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
T'"T"M
Inde;
Reference trough dates
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans
64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
-12
0
+6
+12+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
-12
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For sc
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarti
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
Hee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
Last 2 quarters anticipated.
55
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I | | I |
PERIOD COVERED
•<-Specific trough dates
From specific trough dates to 48 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
ndex
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus.
1958
1961
bidgs.3
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II I III III II M i l II III I III III III N i l
10
•^-Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
05-
30
24. Mfrs.1 new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus
I
XH
+6
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months
MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months
"100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
*See appendix B for specific dates.
See table
>ughs of previous expansions are shown in table
+36
+42
+48
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+48
Months from specific troughs
for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
9.
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
i
PERIOD COVERED
1949
........... 1954
r""i
-<-Specific trough dates
From specific trough dates to 48 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of--
r'"i
i"
1958
1961
I I I M I M I I I I I M II I l l l l I l l l l Il
1C
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
+4fc
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
+48
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series wit
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is se
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specif!
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2
Cyclical Patterns
57
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 46 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
1958
1961
-[115
1 1 I I I I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 II I 1 1 II I I I | I I I I !
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
H<-Specific trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]
-110
105
K)
100*
+6
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from specific troughs
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2*,the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
"100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
ughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATE
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, f
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or me
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month
used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. £
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
tonths
beginning in—
after
referJuly Nov. Mar. June
Oct. Aug. Apr. Fel
ence July
1938
1949
1927 1933
1954
1924
1958 19i
trough1 1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2 . Accession rate, manufacturing.
«
3 . Layoff rate manufacturing ( inverted )
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13.
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24.
Number of new business incorporations.......
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)...
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Va'lue of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
44
43
43
44
44
43
43
44
42
u.
44
44
83.5
31.9
35.4
76.2 106.3
52.3 162.0
80.0 119.6
156.3 112.0
184.4 152.0
39.0
38.3
(NA) 164.0
85.4
67.4 263.1 114.9
96.2 124.2
85.5 111.6
12^
126
32.0
40.2
213.2 122.2
101.5 108.9
121/
68.1
52.7 124.8
(NA) 152.7 82.4
54.4 204.7 97.0
(NA) (NA) 96.8
57.7 53.2 156.6
79.6
82.8 110.0
130.2 138.3
67.8
47.7
83.7 108.4
94.4 102.2
174.3 U7.9
93.7
97.3
106
8£
143
10]
15;
lO';
38.6
106.7
72.0 110.0 100.5
28.9 99.5 48.3
84.6
90.0
1.9
(NA) (NA) (NA)
117.7 210.5 110.1
56.9
68.3 80.0
102.3
107.0
141.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) 135.1 115.8
44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
44
U*
44
42
42
44
44
44
84.8
(NA)
109.2
(NA)
(NA)
102.1
(NA)
109.4
92.8
77.1
(NA) (NA)
104.7
79.5
85.6
119.6
121.7 100.7
129.5 81.9
115.0 81.8
86.5
105.9
92.6
(NA)
99.7
80.2
99.0
65.6
81.0
90.8
120.2
(NA)
150.8
149.8
(NA)
131.8
144.9
124.7
111.7
147.1
135.7
138.7
125.5
143.4
135.4
126.8
44
65.8
86.9
74.6
88.8
110.0 108.8
39
45
48.0
90.8
54.8 100.2
54.3
41.4
55.4
64.7
44
43
43
75.6
(NA)
(NA)
88.7
(NA)
(NA)
99.2 9
83.3 81.7 117.0 111.9 116.1
(NA) 85.3 (NA) 152.8 1H.4 104.6 11
(NA) 152.0 129.5 14
(NA) 111.3 148.1
42
79.3
88.6
91.5
44
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
94.8 101.0 101
65.8 117.3 97
41.2 105.6 16C
95.6
26.3
29.5
(NA)
37.1
23.3
116.7
13C
(NA) 112.5 llr
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43 . Unemployment rate , total ( inverted ).........
47. Index of industrial production.
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).,
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54 . Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
100.9
35.5
93.5
117.4
105.3
126.7
122.1
117.4
103.6
70.6
113.3
119.8
112.5
129.8
121.4
112.4
ir
12;
11'
108.9
101.3
10(
(NA) 125.1 128.9
(NA). 129.5 107.9
91.9
94.6
11'
10?
10(
11<
12.
14-'
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
54.7
(NA) 141.3
120.4
102.7
12'
9
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the p
had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A
the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (act
expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964).
Cyclical Patterns
59
able 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
• series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
i>2, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or
aore (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
aonth is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
luarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
Months
beginning in —
after
referMar.
June Oct. Aug. Apr.
ence July July Nov.
1938 1949
1924
1954 1958
trough1 1921
1927 1933
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Average workweek of production workers,
44
43
43
+3.0 -2.8 +4.4 +3.0
+5.0 +4.6 -14.9 +13.0 +21.8
(NA) +22.6 -56.3 +27.9 +81.3 +20.5 -9.4 +27.7 -10.0
(NA) -4.8
50.0 +116.7 +141.2 +110.3 -36.3 +77.8 +82.2
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
New private nonfann dwelling units started..
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices. .......
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
44
44
0.0 -61.0
+121.4
4-88.3 +53.5 -63.1
(NA) +89.3 +7.4 +40.7 +33.2
(NA)
(NA) +180.1 -18.0 -27.0 +15.0 +26.5
+53.6 -63.2 +235.6
43
+41.7
43
44
42
44
44
44
-0.5 +48.5
+71.4 +10.4
(NA) + 57.1
(NA)
(NA)
+ 59.1 +102.1
+63.2 -4.6
(NA) +41.6
-3.2 -14.1 -38.8
(NA) +107.6
-47.6
-97.4 + 54.2 (NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-16.0 +178.7 -15.3
-41.7 +99.6 +62.5
+4.8 +38.6 +37.2
+19.4 +10.3 +44.9 +17.1
-9.2
-29.7 -49.9
-9.9
+24.1 -1.8 +43.3 +64.1
-2.0 -3.9 +8.0 +3.6
+50.7 +37.8 +69.4 +36.5
+6.0
-6.3 +12.0 +12.8
44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) + 54.1 +24.3 +32.1 +38.1.
44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-7.8
44
Unemployment rate, total ( inverted) . ........ 44
44
42
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).. 42
44
44
44
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
44
+23.1
(NA)
+59.8
+34.5
+33.5
+31.8
+37.4
+16.7
+6.8
(NA)
+27.5
+22.4
+22.0
+33.7
+14.9
+ 5.9
-19.7
(NA)
-15.6
-14.7
-1.6
-24.7
-18.9
-13.5
+35.4 +34.1
+91.5 (NA)
+106.8 +120.8
+ 59.2 +70.1
+37.4 (NA)
+72.1 + 57.9
+64.7 +62.7
+72.5 +53.0
+17.7
+207.4
+48.2
+43.5
+27.4
+49.4
+41.6
+26.8
-4.8 -19.8 +22.6 +16.5 +14.6
Index of new private housing units author -
-23.5 +10.7
+21.6
+4.5
-17.9
+2.8
+19.6
+8.5
+24.8
+22.4
+18.1
+8.0
+24.3
+31.9
+22.8
+17.0
+34.0
+21.8
+14.2
+10.2
+32.7
+27.1
+25.3
+19.7
+38.2
+22.7
+19.9
+9.7
+1.8
+0.3
(NA) + 56.3 +35.0 +14.4
(NA) +61.8 +13.0 +17.7
+28.5
+36.3
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Number of employees in nonagri cultural
+4.0
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
39
45
+39.8 +30.2 -38.2 +223.1
+59.5 +43.6 -52.9 +276.9
44
43
43
-16.0
(NA)
(NA)
-13.7
(NA)
(NA)
42
-26.4
+1.0
Index of labor cost per unit of output,
Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
-15.4 +11.4 +12.7 +16.4 +13.7 -6.6 -3.4
(NA) +44.0 (NA) +63.7 +22.4 +8.5 +13.4
(NA) +132.8 + 58.9 +98.3 +47.1 +28.5 +35.7
-4.9
-29.7
(NA) +40.8 +26.1 +18.9
+0.2
OTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for
reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
W. Not available.
L
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
^Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
'Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
mditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period' (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964).
Cyclical Patterns
60
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, 6
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or me
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as 1
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter.
See also MCD footnc
to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after July
specific 1921
trough1
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb
196
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
46
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations. ......
July
1924
(NA) *97.8 *100.C
71.0
98.8
(NSC)
*99.8 *99.0 10(
40
44
44
48
46
*45.2
*86.3
(NA)
*99.2
*71.3
*114.6
*106.8
(NA)
176.9
*100.8
*108.2
*110.5
(NA)
(NSC)
*76.6
28.6
+70.4
(NA)
46.9
71.9
55.6 (NSC) 92.6 12'
191.6
71.6 (NSC) *138.1 10:
43.7
(NA) *107.2 *90.3 *101.0 9!
43.3 *155.6 *186.3 *122.5 14:
106.6 *135.1 *65.1 *92.9 10
47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) *211.6 *106.2 *99.2 12!
46
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) (NA)
(NA)
(NA)
44
41
47. Index of industrial production..
44
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q) 42
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).. 42
46
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
46
54 . Sales of retail stores
42
*91.3
(NA)
*112.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
102.9
*96.6
(NA)
*108.2
(NSC)
(NSC)
*111.1
(NA)
(NSC)
92.6
(NA)
81.5
80.2
92.1
81.5
79.8
84.6
119.6
(NA)
148.9
142.6
(NA)
146.1
184.4
128.4
111.6
(NA)
133.5
134.9
121.9
134.7
*U7.3
(NSC)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units author-
(NA) *96.5
9:
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing.
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2,..
17.
19.
23.
24.
Price
Index
Index
Value
per unit of labor cost index
of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
of industrial materials prices. .......
of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
*105.6
(NA)
*116.2
(NSC)
(NSC)
*112.S
(NA)
(NSC)
*105.4
*67.5
*109.2
*121.6
*110.1
*122.6
*116.1
116.5
*103.0 10'
*78.2 9
*109.0 11'
*112.4 12
*107.6 11
121.1 B12
*108.3 11
*109.4 11
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
46
*+15.4 *f7.9 *+4.f +4.9
*+40.1 1-196.2
*+20.5 *+12.8
(NA) (NA)
(NSC) 1-208.0
*+7.3 +93.3
40
44
44
48
46
*+l!8.5
*+23.6
(NA)
*+46.2
*+75.0
*f82.6
*+42.9
(NA)
+107.7
*+36.7
47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
46
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) (NA)
44
41
44
42
42
46
46
42
*+32.6
(NA)
*f66.1
(NA)
(NA)
*+32.8
(NA)
+20.7
*+12.0
(NA)
*f31.7
(NSC)
(NSC)
*+15.;
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
*+5.2
+
(NA) +78.3 (NSC) +35.4
-45.2 +21. C (NSC) *+51.7
(NA) *+15.2 *+6.8 *+9.4
-20.7 *+87.4 *+109. 6 *+48.1
+65.0 *+100.3 *+24. 7 *+17.4
+4
+1
+
+5
+1
+18.4
+6.0
*+4.1
(NA) *+ 180.1 *+89.9 *+36.7 +2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) *+56.3 +2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
47. Index of industrial production. .............
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54. Sales of retail stores
.....^
+35.4 +34.1 +17.7 *+9.1 *+7.6 +]
(NA) +202.7 *+6l.9 *+54.2 +::
+85.3
+74.9 +120.3 +48.2 *+21.3 *+27.2 +<
+59.2 +70.1 +39.9 *+24. 9 *+l6.4 +<
(NA) +24.8 *+14.3 *+12.5 +3
+36.7
+65.6 +67.2 +41.2 *+24.2 +22.6 3+;
H24.3 +152.2 *+68.f ^-25.6 *+17.6 +<
(NSCJ +65.0 +58.9 (NSC) +22.5 *+13.7 +<
*+!!.*
(NA)
*^24.S
(NSC)
(NSC)
*+15.9
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the me
indicated in the first column. The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period coverec
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. 1). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
^•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trougl
the latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated bj
asterisk (*). Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the 1
preceding that low.
Appendixes
Appendix A.--BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October i860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894June 1897
December 1900
XXX
XXX
48
30
78
65
30
22
46
Iff
34
36
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913.•.
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
To
22
44
46
43
35
51
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929....
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
14
13
43
13
j*
11
27
21
50
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
13
9
9
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
18
8
if
so
37
45
2
54
3
46
6
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
X
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
*21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
4 cycles, 1945-1960,
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.--SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates a
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leadi
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr, ' 54 Apr. '49 Jan, '38 Jun. • 32 Apr. '28 Jul . ' 24 Feb.'
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business incorporations
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. .permits-.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
54. Sales of retail stores
May '61 Jun..'58 NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul. '24 Mar.'
Jan. '61
Feb.1 61
Oct. '60
Dec. '60
Feb ..'49
May '49
Jun.'49
Jun.'49
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun. ' 38
Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul. '32
Dec, '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun. '24
NA
Oct,'23
Jun. '24
Jan.'
NA
Aug.'
Jul.1
Nov.1 60 Feb. '58 Mar.' 54 Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Dec. '60 Feb. '58 NA
Feb. '61
May '61
Feb.' 61'
IstQ' 61
IstQ' 61
NSC
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep,'53
Feb. '54
May '58 Aug. '54
Jul. '58 Sep. '54
Apr . ' 58Apr. '54
IstQ' 58 2ndQ' 54
IstQ' 58 2nd Q' 54
Feb. '58 Mar. '54
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2nd Q' 49
2nd Q' 49
Oct. '49
Jun. '38
Jun. '38
May '38
2ndQ'38
IstQ' 38
May '38
Mar. '33
my '33
Jul.'32
IstQ' 33
! 3rdQ' 32
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC
4thQ'26
Jul. '24
NA
Jul. '24
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 24
Jul.
NA
Apr.
4thQ
NA
2ndQ
NA
NSC
NA
NSC
mr.
Dec.' 60 Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mir. '33
May '38 Mar. '33
Apr. ' 61Mir. '58 Jan ,'54 NSC
NA
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in—
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan
192
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Apr. '59 Nov. '55 Apr. '53
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business incorporations
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.
1
Jun. 60 Mar. '56 NSC
Apr. '59
May '59
Jul.'59
Nov. '59
NSC
Dec. '36
Oct. '29 Nov. '25
Nov. '22
NA.
Mar. '46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec.
Jul.'46 Dec. '36
NSC
Feb.' 51 Jan. '48 NA
Jan. '53 Jun.'48 Feb. '37
Feb , ' 51Jan. ' 48 Mar. '37
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29
Oct,'25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
Mar, '23
Mar. '23
Dec.
NA
Jul,
Apr,
Jul.'59 Nov. '56 Feb. '51 Apr. '48 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Nov. '58 Feb. '55 NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments
Apr, '60
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. '60
49 . GNP in current dollars (Q) .........
2nd Q' 60
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2ndQ' 60
52 . Personal income
NSC
53 . Labor income in mining, manuf acMay '60
54. Sales of retail stores ............. Apr. '60
NA not available.
Feb. '56
Dec.' 55
Jul.'56
Dec. '55
NSC
Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ' 57
3rd Q' 57
Aug. '57
Jul. « 53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ' 53
2ndQ' 53
Oct. '53
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ'48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48
Jul. '37
Jul.'37
May '37
3rd Q' 37
3rd Q' 37
Jun. '37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul. '29
3rd Q' 29
3rd Q' 29!
Aug.'29
Jan, ' 26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Jun. » 23
NA
my '23
NSC.
NSC
IstQ' 24
Jan.
NA
Feb.
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
Jul,
Jul.'57 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 my '37 Sep. '29 NA
Aug. '57 Mar. ' 53NSC
Sep,'37 Sep. '29 NSC
No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Appendixes
63
Appendix C.--AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Port 1.—Average Percentage Changes
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
.49
.42
4.92 4.69
Nbnagricultural placements, all industries.... 1.82 1.29
Layoff rate, manufacturing.................... 9.52 8.05
Temporary layoff, all industries
17.76 17.12
Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemploy5.29
4.62
New orders, durable goods industries.......... 3.79 3.25
. Avg. workweek^ prod net Inn wnrkprs rof £,..,....
.
.
.
.
.
. New orders, machinery and equipment indus
. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
4.47
4.01
.21
1.72
1.18
4.02
3.99
2.00
2.73
1.09
2.00
4.29
2
3
2
3
5
.95
.89
.59
.70
.89
2.15
1.85
2.27
2.21
1.63
1.65 10.58 4.06
1.54 9.00 5.64
1.63 9.77 5.25
1.73 8.40 5.39
1.44 6.35 3.08
2.49
1.61
1.86
2.02
2
3
.86
.59
1.72
1.67
1.51
1.54
9.77 3.94
8.33 4.56
1.61
2.49
3
.84
1.76
1.51
12.50 3.62
1
9.66 9.43
4.93 4.61
7.34 7.31
3.82 3.39
2.68 2.36
16.86 16.36
1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
1.10
2.52
5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
2.15
6.49
6
4
6
3
3
6
C)
.82
(X)
.68
.77
C1)
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.10
1.48
1.54 6.63 3.03
1.59 10.75 3.71
6.13 2.32
1.53
1.53 14.38 3.32
1.70 6.30 3.02
5.77 2.26
1.32
. Large business failures
13.09 12.81
. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
.56
.69
. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
2.65 1.86
. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
6.81 5.29
. Production materials, percent reporting com5.81
mitments 60 days or longer
5.32
. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
7,68 5.54
. Industrial materials prices
1.32 1.04
2.11
.33
1.67
6.07
1.70
1.11
6
2
2
C1)
.94
.68
1.53
2.23
2.35
1.37 9.77 5.30
1.74 7.47 3.60
1.67 12.70 3.94
3.10
1.71
3
.66
2.54
1.76 10.58 4.63
2.14
2.49
3
.76
1.87
1.63
12.70 3.91
4.73
.74
1.17
1.41
2
2
.79
.95
3.53
2.44
2.12
2.05
9.77 4.20
11.55 4.06
. Liabilities of business failures
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
. Employees in nonagricultural establishments...
. Total nonagricultural employment
. Unemployment rate, total..........
.30
.36
4.19
5.98
4.82
3.11
.15
.29
3.14
5.02
2.56
1.88
.25
.19
2.41
2.86
3.56
2.35
.60
1.53
1.30
1.76
.72
.80
1
2
2
2
1
1
.60
.79
.69
.88
.72
.80
5.29
1.82
2.67
2.53
3.74
3.47
2.05 14.11 5.29
1.62 18.71 3.33
8.19 3.33
1.58
1.63 10.90 4.91
9.07 3.74
2.12
1.60 9.62 3.47
1.09
1.48
.49
.81
.78
.17
.58
1.44
.27
.53
.63
.10
.79
.60
.41
.61
.44
.13
.73
2.40
.66
.87
1.43
.77
1
3
1
1
2
1
.73
.54
.66
.87
.85
.77
3.53
1.69
3.43
3.43
2.53
3.53
2.05
1.53
1.84
1.90
1.80
2.65
.65
.54
.48
,,19
.36
.49
1.33
.39
2
1
.72
.39
2.27
8.33
1.55
9.07 4.34
2.02 13.89 8.33
.80
.83
.54
.17
.49
.78
1.10
.22
2
1
.53 2.40
.22 11.45
1.42 15.63 5.17
2.29 18.00 11.45
5.68
5.59
5.37 5.20
. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement........ 26.87 26.37
. Defense Dept. obligations, total.....
15.12 14.78
26.25 26.21
.82
.95
4.09
2.70
6.12
6.82
5.47
6.45
5.47
4.28
6
6
6
6
6
C1X)
1.51
1.74
1.51
1.47
1.58
1.41
1.57
1.46
1.43
1.47
23.00 23.02
7.33 5.69
1.80 1.39
1.68 1.50
2.57 2.17
.58
.27
3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.12
.52
6.39
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52
6
2
2
4
3
1
C1)
1.51
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13
1.45 5.56 2.53
2.00 9.71 3.55
2.13 10.46 3.75
1.79 8.67 4.90
1.90 8.56 3.55
2.63 17.13 9.13
. Average weekly insured unemployment, State....
.
.
.
.
.
Bank debits outside NYC
Personal income
Labor income in mining, mfg., construction....
Sales of retail stores
Wholesale prices, except farm prod, and foods.
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
* Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing..
9.77
18.14
18.14
11.55
9.54
11.55
3.53
4.31
3.43
3.43
3.62
3.53
. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
. Consumer * installment debt.
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
. Federal cash payments to public.........
.
.
•
.
.
.
New orders , defense products
Treasury bill rate. ...........................
Treasury bond yields ..........................
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields
Mortgage yields
See footnotes at end of table.
( )
(X)
C1)
f1)
.81
.95
.93
.86
.52
8.47
7.47
5.93
6.61
5.95
2.18
2.60
2.27
2.48
2.86
64
Appendixes
Appendix C.--AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued
I/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
T/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MC
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE— Con.
86.
87.
8l.
94.
96.
Exports, excluding military aid
General imports
Consumer prices
Construction contracts, value................
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries....
4.59
3.61
.15
7.03
1.51
4.39
3.47
.10
6.69
.57
1.11
.97
.13
1.69
1.34
3.95
3.58
.77
3.96
.43
4
4
1
5
1
.96
.85
.77
.84
.43
1.77
1.59
6.00
1.52
5.95
1.66
1.51
2.25
1.45
1.87
7.06
7.53
25.20
7.88
13.89
2.
2.
6.
3.
5.
.90
1.14
.86
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70
.77
1.09
.83
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07
.52
.47
.50
.69
.68
.74
1.23
1.48
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
.72
.81
.89
.93
.89
.64
.87
3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91
2.12 15.63
1.87
8.93
2.40 31.25
18.00
2.14
2.08 25.00
1.82 31.00
1.52 17.86
8.
5.
7.
5.
11.
6.
2.
CI
I
C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada.
122 . United Kingdom
125. West Germany.,...
127. Italy.
128. Japan
...«
Quarterly series
T/C
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QC
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing....
Corporate profits after taxes.....
Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing...
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
11.65
6.28
6.76
7.26
4.03
4.80
7.39
4.71
4.17
.98
.86
1.15
1
1
2
.98
.86
.56
2.47
2.47
2.47
1.45
1.35
1.40
4.67
5.25
5.25
2.
2.
2.
5.10
3.76
3.78
.99
1
.99
3.23
1.40
5.25
3.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1954- dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales
1.29
1.54
1.30
.49
.50
.38
1.07
1.33
1.20
.46
.38
.31
1
1
1
.46
.38
.31
3.82
4.67
6.00
1.45
1.35
1.45
4.67
6.00
8.40
3.
4.
6.
3.15
.90
2.31
1.26
.49
1.57
2.64
.72
2.00
.48
.68
.79
1
1
1
.48
.68
.79
4.67
3.15
2.47
1.83
1.41
1.56
4.67
5.86
4.67
4.
3.
2.
11D . Total private borrowing. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .. 11.61
111. Corporate gross savings .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
8.60
97. Backlog of capital appropriations mfg.......
5.89
8.33
5.67
1.56
7.58
6.55
5.54
1.10
.87
.28
2
1
1
.43
.87
.28
2.59
2.32
3.00
1.33
1.38
1.50
4.00
4.00
6.00
4.
2.
3.
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip...
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP......
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans......
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
ponent into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is
NOTE: Measures are computed for a period of at least
10 years beginning with January 1953, except for series 7, same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible m
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
86, 87, and 116. The period begins with May 1959 for
series 7 and with January 1960 for series 116. For series
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an es
86 and 87, the period ends with June 1962.
mate of the appropriate time span over which to obse:
1
Nbt computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small :
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriv
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for
The following are brief definitions of the measures
irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-mo:
shown in this table. Mare complete explanations appear in
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jai
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans.
Averag.
Shiskin,issued asOccasional Paper 5 7 b y the National
without regard to sign, are then computed for the cham
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal
over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months :
of Business, October 1957).
which the average percentage change (without regard
sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the aver!
"CF. is the average month-to-month (or quarter-topercentage change (without regard to sign) in the irrei
quarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
lar component, and remains so.
Thus, it indicates
seasonally adjusted series. "F is the same for the irpoint at which fluctuations in the seasonally ad jus
regular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical comseries become dominated by cyclical rather than irregu
Appendixes
Dvements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater
ian 5 months, all series with an MOD greater than "5" are
lown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of
le appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
Dvements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in
carters) for which the average percentage change (without
»gard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
le average percentage change (without regard to sign) in
le irregular component, and remains so.
65
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between
1.36 and 1.75 about 95. percent of the time. Over 1-month
intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series,
the expected value of ADR is 2.9. For example, the
ADR of
CI is 1.67 for series 6, Value of Manufacturers1 New Orders, Durable Goods Industries. This indicates that 1month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.54- for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into
an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month Amoving average of the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 to 5 months.
The increase in the ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the
MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, monthto-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect
the underlying cyclical-trend movements of the series,
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
ilues) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
1 jus ted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1mth spans_and for spans of the period of MOD. When MCD
i "6", no I/Cjratio is shown for the MCD period. For quar»rly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
loothness and is equal to the average number of consecu.ve monthly changes in the same direction in any series
' observations. When there is no change between 2 months,
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
sumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
Ties CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
d the MCD curve. The MCD curve is a moving average
ith the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
justed series.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
i/c
Monthly series
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
L. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories.
). Change in book value, mfrs.1
inventories of matls., supplies.
5. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods ...•«..«•.•••••••••••
Unit of
measure
CI
Ann. rate,
bil. dol,.. 3.50
..do........ 1.52
Bil. dol....
.49
I
?
3.37
1.45
.46
.85
The
ive
lures in the above table are computed by an adrthod to avoid the distortion caused by zero and
3.96
MCD1 for
MCD
span
4
.94
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
1.47
1.44
7.94
3.22
6.05
3.15
.37
3.93
5
.92
1.64
1.46
.16
2.93
4
.79
1.79
1.58
7.44
3.45
5.64
1.56
6.75
9
2
11
.79
.95
.82
1.54
2.03
1.45
1.47
1.52
1.48
6.09
10.31
6.18
3.07
3.17
3.32
5.29
7
.97
1.51
1.45
6.80
2.60
4.51
5
.93
1.47
1.47
6.22
2.48
2.19
3.23
3
3
.78
.93
1.71
1.82
1.55
1.61
9.00
11.30
3.24
2.64
)THER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
h. Fed. cash surplus or deficit....Ann. rate,
5.46
.97
bil. dol... 5.60
I. Free reserves
Mil. dol....104.23 82.19 52.77
.03
Ftercent
.23
.23
L Change in money supply and time
.04
..do
.21
.21
Ann. rate,
.26
bil. dol... 1.22
1.19
i. Change, consumer installment
.85
.34
debt
..do
.75
Mil. dol.... 58.96 56.60 17.50
>. Merchandise trade balance
NOTE: Measures are computed for the period, January
>3 to mid-1964, except for series 88 and 112. For series
the period ends with June 1962 and for series 112, the
•iod begins with August 1959.
1
Where MCD is larger than "6", a 6-term moving average
used as the MCD curve.
T/c
negative data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month
change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the
same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of
the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the
irregular component, which is determined by subtracting
the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.
66
Appendixes
Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBE
(NOVEMBER 1963 TO DECEMBER 1964)
1<?63
Nov.
Dec.
19<:>4
Jan.
Feb. Mar.
Apr. May
June
July
Aug. Sept. Oct.
4. Temporary layoff, all industries. 86.7 95.9 144.5 107.7 98.9 86.6 84.0 76.7 98.3 146.0
5. Avg. weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance.... 103.1 133.7 142.1 109.5 94.4 93.8 83.0 82.9 104.7 85.5
82.3 97.5 116.3
96.3 110.0 106.9 102.9 106.7 108.2 90.5
13. New business incorporations*
14. Liabilities of business failures. 102.5 78.5 110.3 101.7 103.5 114.6 103.3 94.4 82.7 124.9
15. Large business failures
94.3 85.7 111.7 112.8 115.0 109.1 99.7 104.7 87.6 95.9
Nov.
Dec
86.6
95-
82.4
90.7
78.7
92.5
91.0
90.3
89.0 103.0 134,
99.0 82.3
92.0 102.6 77.
93.5 94.3 fls
in?
17. Ratio, price to unit labor
101.1 97.7 98.0 99-4 100.0 100.3 100.8 102.3 96.2 99.1 101.7 103.3
97.6
106.2
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2. 100.8
94.7
1
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. . 93.1 8l!l 82! 6 77.4 92.0 103.6 107.4 110.8 105.*0 111.0 124.*4 112.6
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories...... 95.1 96.7 109.6 107.4 109.3 109.1 106.3 96.7 92.8 91.6 93.7 92.1
55. Wholesale prices, except farm
100.0 100.2 100 . 2100.1 100.1 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 100.1
101.1
100.8
93.3
97
95.1
Q6
82
100.0 100
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
98.9 102.3 102.3 100.6 99.9
100.2 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.0
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1 98.5 91.9 96.2 93.7
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 101.9 106.4
69.3 112.1 126.6
90. Defense Department obligations —
92.8 102.7 85.8 85.7 102.5
90.3 99.6 92.2 85.7
91. Defense Dept. oblig. , total
92. Military contract awards in U.S.. 84.8 94.5 91.5 83.3
100.8 101.7 100.2 99.4
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99.0 102.0
94.7 100.9
99.4
99.9
99.0
79.0
99.0
99.8
103.7
121.6
97.6
99.9
102.9
149.8
103.9
100.2
96.6
48.9
100.8
100.0
115.0
115.1
97.9
100.2
93.8
123.5
79.7 72.3 207.0 89.6 89.2 97.1
96.9 98.9 102
100.2 100.2 QQ
98
105.7 102.9
46.1 102.0 106
95.8
92.9 10?
108.0 94.6 86.2 147.1 101.1 94.3 98.1 103.6 90.3 9Q
124.8 84.0 89.6 197.9 69.9 88.0 99.0 93.9 84.8 94
100.4 100.7 100.1 99.7 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.9 101
108.4 100.3 100.5 99.4
99.1
96.8
99 i 100.3
99.0 102
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by t
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the sour
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
^•Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
Appendixes
67
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions :
Reference peak to
reference trough
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
43. Unemployment rate
47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP 51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Reof indus- in 1954 in cur- debits
tail
sonal
dollars rent
trial
sales
outside income
producdollars NYC
(Q)1
tion
(Q)1
Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, peak
trough
peak to
trough
2
an . 1920-July 1921
ay 1923- July 1924.
ct. 1926-Nov. 1927
ug . 1929-Mar 1933
ay 1937- June 1938
NA
NA
NA
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5
+7.9
2+2.3
2+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
^b. 1945-Oct . 194.54
DV 1948-Oct. 194.9s
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.8
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+1.0
+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7
-5.7
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-1.2
-6.5
-16.0
-2.3
-2.9
-3.6
-2.3
-3.8
-8.8
-2.4
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
ily 1953-Aug 1954
ily 1957-Apr. 1958
ly 1960-Feb. 1961
sdian:6
24.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9
+3.4
3.5
7.2
-1.8
+3.6
3.9
7.6
-1.2
+3.4
4.0
7.2
3
Excluding postwar con4 contractions since
1948
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions :
Reference trough
to reference peak
ily
ily
iv
r.
ne
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927-Aug 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 194. 54
t. 1945-Nov. 1948
t . 1949-July 1953s
g 1954-July 1957
r
1958-May I960
43. Unemployment rate
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Retail
debits
sonal
sales
outside income
NYC
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49 GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131/7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85. 6
+102.0
-3.6
2-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
+17.2
+17.7 '
+8.9
+7.2
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.3
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.6
+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.4
+35,2
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+19.9
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+21.6
+14.7
-2.6
6.3
3.7
+25.6
+23.2
-2.0
6.8
3.9
41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments
NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9
47. Index
of industrial
production
Change
at Rate at
in rate, Rate
trough peak
trough
to peak
2
-8.7
2
2
2
3.2
2
1.9
3
2' 3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
dian:6
Excluding wartime ex4 expansions since
1945
+13.0
+26.6
+13.0
+23.6
+12.5
+12.7
+21.4
+29.4
+24.4
+39.0
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
.e reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of
.e 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49
d 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
irter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Appendixes
68
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have bee:
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5- Data are seasonally adjusted except series 48.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.)
19-48
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
.. .
.. .
...
.. .
I960
1*.75
1.84
2.66
3.99
3.47
1.91
2.64
2.81
...
...
.. .
...
...
2*.02
1.81
...
.. .
...
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
3.22
3.70
3.00
1.88
2.88
2.48
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
.. .
.. .
2! 26
1.83
3.87
3.34
2.37
2.14
3.02
2.20
.. .
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
2 '.02.
2.26
3.99
3.24
2.26
2.19
3.08
2.67
.. .
...
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
...
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
5.41
11.03
11.63
7.60
. . . 7.14
. . . 9.01
•• •
...
...
...
...
5.81
5.21
...
5.62
4.84
...
6.54
11.73
11.04
. . . 6.89
7.74
8.59
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
5^72
4.60
8.16
. . . 11 .84
9.91
.. .
6.73
8.36
7.96
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
...
5.57
4.78
9.75
. . . 11.66
8.76
...
6.71
8.95
7.88
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Annual rate, mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.* .
...
...
...
...
...
... 20,504
22,184
... 20,684
...
...
...
...
I960
26,212
27,740
29,084
25,720
32,588
33,616
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
... 27,284
. . . 26,700
. . . 28,960
. . . 26,752
... 34,632
32,816
...
.. .
.. .
...
19,852
21,532
21,436
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
. . . 19,944
20,576
... 21,388
...
...
...
.. .
... 28,152
... 28,180
. . . 29,596
28,364
32,712
32,628
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
. . . 22,248
19,280
... 23,664
... 28,492
... 29,208
. . . 29,644
... 32,480
... 34,848
31,464
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
48. Change in freight carloadings for 19 manuf . commodity groups over 4-quarter intervals (Thous. cars)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
I960
-21
-541
+354
-42
-178
+129
-329
+296
-190
+24
-325
-173
+96
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
-143
-589
+543
-78
-60
-183
-72
+231
-27
-303
-80
-73
-103
...
...
...
...
-203
...
-213
+332
...
...
-34
...
-77
. . . -241
...
+77
...
...
...
...
...
...
+155
-74
-389
+134
+8
-279
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
..«
...
...
...
...
-271
-10
+151
-291
+209
-358
+235
+94
-170
-426
+321
-146
-212
...
...
...
...
...
.».
Appendixes
69
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
ach month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted except series D48.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
D48. Diffusion index for actual freight car loadings — 19 manuf. commodity groups (4-quarter interval)
?48
?49
?50
?51
>52
>53
>54
...
57.9
26.3
89.5
42.1
36.8
78.9
10.5
...
73.7
26.3
31.6
31.6
52.6
31.6
>55
>56
>57
>58
'59
>60
42.1
15.8
89.5
31.6
42.1
26.3
42.1
...
...
...
42.1
36.8
89.5
42.1
52.6
21.1
63.2
63.2
15.8
15.8
68.4
57.9
21.1
73.7
42.1
5.3
36.8
42.1
31.6
...
36.8
68.4
63.2
21.1
78.9
21.1
73.7
52.6
21.1
10.5
84.2
26.3
26.3
...
...
D48. Diffusion index for anticipated freight car load ings —19 manuf. commodity groups (4-quarter interval)
73.7
26.3
78.9
68.4
52.6
78.9
26.3
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
...
68.4
36.8
94.7
63.2
68.4
42.1
31.6
...
94.7
73.7
68.4
10.5
78.9
68.4
...
78.9
47.4
89.5
52.6
78.9
31.6
78.9
...
89.5
73.7
47.4
52.6
84.2
78.9
...
36.8
63.2
68.4
36.8
73.7
26.3
84.2
...
100.0
63.2
36.8
63.2
89.5
50.0
...
84.2
68.4
21.1
89.5
57.9
42.1
...
D61. Diffusion index for actual new plant and equipment expenditures — 16 industries (l-quarter interval)
;8
^,9
50
51
52
53
54
87.5
25.0
46.9
78.1
65.6
68.8
18.8
55
56
57
58
59
&
28.1
87.5
56.2
0.0
68.8
75.0
...
...
53.1
12.5
59.4
93.8
18.8
59.4
40.6
...
...
62.5
21.9
90.6
75.0
31.2
56.2
31.2
87.5
71.9
43.8
28.1
75.0
56.2
84.4
81.2
53.1
18.8
81.2
71.9
...
46.9
28.1
90.6
46.9
71.9
37.5
43.8
100.0
78.1
25-0
50.0
65.6
34-4
...
...
D61. Diffusion index for anticipated new plant and equipment expenditures—16 industries (l-quarter
,8
,9
10
il
12
13
'4
5
;6
17
8
9
0
...
...
int.)
...
'••
...
...
84^4
84-4
...
...
...
87.5
71.9
84.4
71.9
40.6
71.9
43.8
Appendixes
70
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have bee
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4» and 5» Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
D35. Diffusion index for manufacturers' actual net sales — 800 companies (4-quarter interval)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
...
...
...
43
89
70
70
72
54
82
79
NA
57
84
61
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
...
51
89
69
NA
61
62
.. .
.. .
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
84
74
52
66
76
53
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
.. .
.. .
42
63
90
58
76
50
76
82
69
39
84
78
50
...
...
.
.. .
.. .
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
45
70
82
62
78
50
82
80
69
48
88
68
60
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
D35. Diffusion index for manufacturers' anticipated net sales — 800 companies (4-quarter interval)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
.. .
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
76
84
72
NA
62
84
80
7.4
60
88
82
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
48
88
78
74
76
64
86
80
76
74
87
74
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
62
88
68
78
66
74
82
79
NA
84
82
70
.. !
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
70
87
72
NA
62
82
84
81
58
86
84
68
. ! '.
...
...
...
D36. Diffusion index for actual new orders, durable manufactures —400 companies (4-quarter interval)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
44
88
74
69
72
52
...
...
84
78
NA
57
82
58
...
.. .
...
.. .
.. .
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
54
92
74
NA
60
61
...
.. .
86
72
46
66
76
51
...
...
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
71
92
64
77
43
74
84
64
36
84
76
50
...
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
37
76
86
62
76
49
83
78
63
45
85
64
62
.. .
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
D36. Diffusion index for anticipated new orders, durable manufactures—400 companies (4-quarter interval
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955.
1956.,
1957
1958
1959
I960
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
78
85
68
NA
58
80
76
68
58
84
76
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
58
81
70
74
64
68
...
...
...
...
...
...
79
74
...
...
...
...
...
...
NA
82
77
68
49
86
"76
68
72
62
...
...
84
74
68
72
84
68
.. .
...
...
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
...
70
80
73
NA
58
80
...
...
...
...
...
83
76
54
83
82
68
...
...
..•
...
..
..,
..
..
••
Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
C harts
r4
a %
3,2
3 G
1
2
3
1Cables
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
A ppenclixes
6
7
8
9
A
R2
0
D
F3
F2
G
Page Issue Page Issue
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
25
24
24
25
22
25
25
23
8
12
12
12
6
6
6
6
22
25
25
25
13
13
13
... 13
13
13
14
i • . 14
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
27
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
.• • •
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
• ••
...
9
9
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
12
12
11
12
9
12
12
9
...
>••
*••
' •.
••
14
15
15
15
15
15
14
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
••
••
..
••
..
50
••
••
50
51
55
••
55
••
••
•.
••
••
•.
••
51
55
••
••
51
56
••
••
••
••
51
50
56
55
••
50
••
••
••
52
57
••
••
52
57
.•
53
53
57
••
••
••
••
••
•.
••
••
••
••
••
56
53
53
56
52
52
57
••
54
54
54
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
58
58
58
59
59
59
59
59
59
60
••
••
••
60
62
••
••
••
62
'62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
••
••
••
••
65
65
••
••
62
63
••
••
•.
..
58
58
59
59
60
••
••
62
••
• •-
••
••
..
..
58
58
59
59
60
••
62
••
••
••
••
58
59
60
••
62
62
62
62
63
62
63
62
65
65
65
..
65
65
..
••
64
••
••
••
••
..
••
••
58
58
59
59
60
..
58
59
#}
en
••
••
62
62
62
63
62
62
64
62
62
62
64
62
62
••
•-.
••
••
5$
59
60
••
62
•.
••
•.
••
58
59
60
••
62
•.
••
58
58
59
59
60
60
••
62
62
58
58
58
59
59
59
60
••
62
58
58
59
59
58
58
58
59
59
59
••
••
••
58
58
59
59
••
••
••
••
.•
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
54
••
••
••
..
**
**
"*
**
*"
^•See back cover for series titles and sources*
3
Before May 1964, this appendix was "G".
••
••
58
58
58
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
60
60
60
..
••
••
62
62
62
••
••
••
••
••
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
63
63
62
62
62
62
62
63
63
62
62
62
62
63
63
•.
.•
••
65
65
•.
67
••
67
67
67
..
67
67
67
65
67
••
65
••
••
66
66
65
66
66
65
63
1-64
2-64
5-64
11-63
7-63
5-64
6-64
68
63
66
66
66
64
68
64
66
11-64
6-64
8-63
11-63
3-64
6-64
6-63
6-64
4-64
64
64
65
66
66
66
65
63
6-64
6-64
6-64
1-64
12-63
12-63
6-64
6-64
66
65
66
6ft
10-63
6-64
3-64
6-63
68
68
68
66
66
66
70
68
8-64
8-64
8-64
2-64
3-64
2-64
9-64
8-64
69
69
69
66
66
69
70
66
8-64
8-64
8-64
10-63
10-63
8-64
8-64
4-64
65
68
66
66
70
70
66
DO
6-64
6-63
6-64
6-64
8-64
8-64
* 0*
4-64
••
••
••
**
**
2
Page number shown is for August 1964 issue.
••
••
••
••
•.
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
•.
••
••
••
••
..
••
••
••
•.
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
71
72
Index
Series
number1
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
Charts
1
2
3
4
Tables
5
1
2
3
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
F2
E
G
Page Issue Page Is si
81...
82...
83...
84...
85...
86...
87...
88...
89...
20
17
17
17
18
20
20
20
20
•.
..
..
••
.•
••
90...
91...
92...
93...
94...
95...
96...
97...
98...
99...
17
17
17
18
20
17
20
20
18
17
..
••
110...
111..
112..
113..
114..
115..
116..
117..
118..
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
121..
122..
123..
125..
126..
127..
128..
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
Dl...
D5...
D6...
Dll..
D19..
D23..
D34..
••
D35..
D36..
D41..
D47..
D48..
D54..
D58..
D61..
1
••
••
•.
••
•.
..
.•
•.
.•
..
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
32
29
29
29
30
32
32
32
32
63
62
62
64
64
63
63
64
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
29
29
29
30
32
29
32
32
30
29
62
62
62
64
63
••
.•
.•
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
30
30
30
31
31
31
31
31
31
63
63
64
64
62
62
62
62
62
..
..
•.
.•
•.
•.
*.
..
..
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
..
••
..
..
.•
•.
..
•.
.•
..
..
•.
••
.•
.•
.•
..
..
.•
•.
•.
.•
•.
..
••
••
.•
••
••
••
•.
•.
.•
••
..
••
..
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
••
••
36
36
63
63
64
62
38
39
38
38
39
39
39
37
37
40
40
37
••
36
36
••
40
40
37
See back cover for series titles and sources.
Before ffey 1964, this appendix was "G".
2
..
45
42
•.
43
44
41
41
••
41
•.
••
41
46
47
48
49
65
65
65
..
65
65
65
..
••
..
70
8-64
••
..
..
••
•.
73
69
69
69
69
7-64
9-64
9-64
9-64
9-64
..
•.
.•
..
••
••
••
..
70 9-64
70 9-64 . •
70 9-64 . •
66 10-64
••
..
••
••
66 10-64
66 6-64
68 11-64
73 7-64 . .
66 10-64;
•.
•.
•.
65
..
..
•.
••
..
•.
..
•.
••
65
••
71
68
71
71
71
72
72
72
72
7-64
11-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74
66 10-64 • •
67 10-64 • .
67 10-64 • •
67 10-64
67 10-64
68 10^64 • •
68 10-64 . .
••
•.
•.
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
••
.•
..
68 10-64 . •
68 10-64 . .
69 10-64 . .
••
••
..
69
69
69
10-64
10-64 . •
10-64
..
70
70
70
70
69
70
70
69
11-64
11-64
10-64
10-64
11-64
10-64
10-64
11-64
•.
••
••
••
••
..
••
••
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order* "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk C*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
New private nonfarm d w e l l i n g units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, andF. W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business f a i l u r e s with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Price per u n i t of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).—Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q). —Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, a l l
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
Index of industrial materials prices (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).—Departmeat of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
Index of new private housing units authorized by local b u i l d i n g
permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). —Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). —Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per u n i t of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). —Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM)«—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national
product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National
Income Division
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE. *3OO
<GPO)
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
28 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).--Boardof Go\
nors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment
Bureau of the Census
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
113. Net change in consumer installment debt
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).—Treasury Depart-
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).--Fi
ment, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by
the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the
official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
ernors of the Federal Reserve System
(M). — Board of G
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no s
sonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury Depart me
no seasonal adjustment
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Departme
no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Be
Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).--Federal He
ing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, E
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart-
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Cei
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87} (M).--De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
pean Countries, index of industrial production (M).--Or|
ization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bu
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).--Deut:
Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
126.
France, index of industrial production (M).—Statistical Of
(Paris)
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for ]
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
nomic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial
production (M).—Ministry of Inte
tional Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment
compiler and Bureau of the Census
...
United States, index of industrial production (M).—See se
47.
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge
Corporation
DIFFUSION INDEXES
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).--De-
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers'unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).~
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).—National
Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products (M).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial
corporations (Q).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffus
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the s
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources at
for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City I
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series compone
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by Nati
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet,
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradsti
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight cot-loadings (Q).-Association of American Railro
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of La
Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bu
of the Census
@FedFRASER