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BUSINESS
CONDITIONS







U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert G. Dederick, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor

This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Norman Frumkin, Office of Management and Budget
Adrian W. Throop, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.

Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic,
$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic, $6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

ItCII

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

j ' '

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Al
A2
A3
A4

Chart

Table

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Bl
B2
B3
B4

B5
B6
87

^
- ^ 1

Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

',

>"?':•'-. , ; ^ V w
/' V ^ ^:5VV"
:v;/:
^, ;
.
; .j /
">'•'•''v'^i" ; ; .'
-;\ v: ,

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
C3

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds




C>
v
36
—
39

74
77
—

for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through April 1, 1985.

i

V ^ v* ;,:; •;
,• ^ ; : ^
• - S ^ : - V ^ Vv,

:

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BCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8

Chart

Table

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

..

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January l981 issue)
QCDand Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series

97
98

D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1983 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (January 1983 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

106
110
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to in-

Changes in this issue are as follows:

corporate recent find-

1. Data from the survey of "Manufacturers' Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders" (M3-1) have been revised by the
source agency for the period 1977 to date. These revisions
reflect (a) benchmarking of shipments and inventories estimates to the 1981 Annual Survey of Manufactures; (b) benchmarking of defense shipments to the "Shipments to Federal
Government Agencies" series; (c) revisions of unfilled
orders levels; (d) recalculation of estimates of new orders,
which are derived from estimates of unfilled orders and
shipments; and (e) updating of seasonal adjustment factors.
The following series have been revised in this issue to
reflect the above-mentioned changes: series 6-8, 10, 24, 25,
38, 65, 69, 78, 96, 548, 559, 561, 588, and 964.
Revised data for other series affected by these changes
(series 20, 27, 31, 36, 56, 57, 70, 71, 77, and the manufacturing inventory-sales ratio shown in appendix G) will be
shown in a subsequent issue.

ing® of-econom/c
r&f&ar&fa newty available tirtfe series, and
revisions made fey
source agencies in
concept* composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data* additions or
deletions of series,
changes In placement of
series in relation to
other.series,' changes
in composition of

Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Industry Division.
2. Series 29 (index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits) has been revised for the
period 1981 to date. This revision reflects the source
agency's updating of basic data for 1982 and application of
new seasonal adjustment factors for 1981 to date.
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Construction Statistics Division.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 5,
13-15, 32, 48, 107, 910c, 920c, 930c, 962, and 971-978.
4. Appendix G contains recession comparisons for series
1, 8, 12, 41, 48, 51, 930, and 940.
The June issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on July 5.




i
n

indexes, etc

SIX BEA PROJECTS
FOR ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

A monthly report for analyzing

economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts and
forecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about 110 business cycle indicators is assigned
a three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns.
This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other important economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons.
About 300 time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions and
prospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data,
seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful information. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS

A reference volume con-

taining valuable background information for users of Business Conditions Digest.
This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time series
presented monthly in Business Conditions Digest. Included are series descriptions, historical
data, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tables
show detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal and
algebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic
trends over a long span of years: 1860-1970.
This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevant
statistical time series in easy-to-follow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basic
research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together in
one volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tape
file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase.

COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The source
statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of
time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL A D J U S T M E N T PROGRAMS—Two variants of the Census computer program
measure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularly
useful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X-l 1 variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as
multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
INDEX PROGRAM—This program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summary
measures of the properties of each index.
TIME SERIES PROCESSOR—This program, through simple commands, performs a variety of
arithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data.

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing
current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for nearly 2,000 statistical series and
significant articles analyzing economic developments. These data and analyses include such areas as
the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment
expenditures, regional personal income, and the input-output accounts.

BUSINESS STATISTICS
For further information (including prices and ordering instructions) on any of these items,
please write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
20230.




A biennial reference volume containing

statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,600 time series. The series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide the basic
data for the series.
IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1956, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1971.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1977

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are
changed as a result of revisions in important
economic time series. The dates shown in this
publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those
determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has
designated turning points for the 1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.

Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N. Economic
\Process
Cyclical N.
Timing
\^

EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

LEADING l\-\

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies

l_ Cm A"\ l~J 1 i N \Jt 1 ^ - * /
|INL-#lO/-\ 1 U n J
INDICATORS

(62 series)

ii.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

ill.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES,COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
{3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Backlog of
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
{5 series)

{Z series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment

(3 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(8 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)

Business
investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Trade
(1 series)

Velocity of

money
(2 series)
1 nterest rates
(2 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)

Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
N.

Economic
\Process

Cyclical N.
Timing
\.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS

1.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization

Consumption
and trade
(3 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits
(2 series)

Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)

Unfilled orders
(1 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
{8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)

IA~7 rp/jpc\

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

(2 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

OT

unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)




Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators whioh
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period can
be determined by inspection of the charts, where the
1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession are
shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference
cycle chronology.

Section 6. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a l consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in

the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.




Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1971.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1971) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data
- P

I

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

p

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

•

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

tfiii

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic cata2
1

Series title and timing classification

Percent change

Annual average
1981

1982

3d Q
1982

4th Q
1982

1st Q
1983

Feb.
1983

Mar.
1983

Apr.
1983

Feb.
to
Mar.
1983

Mar.
to
Apr.
1983

2.2
0.7
-1.0
1.7

1.1
1.0
-1.1
2.1

3d Q
to
4th Q
1982

4th Q
to
1st Q
1983

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930.
940.

Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

140.9
146.0
122.4
119.3

137.0
136.2
122.9
110.8

137.0
135.3
122.5
110.4

139.9
132.2
118.4
111.7

147.8
133.9
114.7
116.8

147.4
133.4
115.0
116.0

150.7
134.4
113.9
118.0

152.4
135.7
112.6
120.5

93.0
107.7
100.9
97.9
122.7

N
A
104.4
97.3
94.0
122.8

N
A
103.7
98.2
93.4
123.7

N
A
105.9
97.5
96.5
122.5

N
A
107.0
99.4
N
A
130.8

N
A
107.1
99.2
99.9
131.4

N
A
107.4
101.3
N
A
131.9

N
A
107.7
101.6
N
A
131.8

L,L,L...
L,C,L...
...do
L,C,I Thousands...

39.8
2.8
446

38.9
2.3
578

39.0
2.4
597

38.9
2.3
599

39.5
2.4
488

39.1
2.3
478

39.6
2.5
479

40.1
3.0
470

L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100

0.429
119

0.243
86

0.211
78

0.198
79

0.216
83

0.215
83

0.217
83

0.216
82

169.94
97,030
91,105
25,481

166.03
96,125
89,619
23,882

165.67
96,192
89,371
23,676

163.91
95,705
88,731
23,102

164.86
95,697
88,878
23,077

163.89
95,670
88,759
23,018

164.89
95,729
88,955
23,050

166.24
96,088
89,213
23,183

0.6
0.1
0.2
0.1

0.8
0.4
0.3
0.6

58.28

57.06

57.01

56.57

56.40

56.38

56.36

56.51

-0.02

8,273 10,678 11,025 11,839 11,439 11,490 11,381 11,328
10.4
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.7
7.6
9.7
10.0
4.5
5.1
4.5
4.4
4.4
3.4
4.6
4.7
19.0
17.5
19.2
19.1
19.0
13.7
15.6
16.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.2
3.9
2.1
3.2
3.3

1502.6 1476.9 1481.1 1477.2 1486.2
1242.0 1247.7 1248.2 1249.4 1254.7 1253.7 1257.2 1259.0
1069.1 1065.9 1064.7 1059.9 1067.2 1066.1 1069.5 1071.3

L,L,I 1967 = 100
do
C,C,C...
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
L,L-I
do..
do..

L,L,L...
LrL,L...
L,L,I
L,LTL...
L,LrL...

do..
do..

do..

2.1

-2.3
-3.3
1.2

5.6
1.3
-3.1
4.6

910
920
930
940

0.3
0.3
N
A
-0.1

N
A
2.1
-0.7
3.3
-1.0

1.3
0.5
1.9

-0.3
-0.1
-0.3

1.5
0.1
18.5

1
21
5

0.002 - 0 . 0 0 1 -0.013
0.
-1.2
1.3

0.018
5.1

60
46

-1.1
-0.5
-0.7
-2.4

0.6
0.
0.2
-0.1

48
42
41
40

0.15

-0.44

-0.17

0.9
0.1
0.1
-0.5
0.

0.5
0.1
0.
0.5
0.3

-7.4
-0.7
-0.4
-8.7
-0.8

3.4
0.3
0.6
-9.7
-0.1

0.3
0.3

0.1
0.2

-0.3
0.1
-0.5

0.6
0.4
0.7

50
5 2'
51

NA

0.3
2.1
N
A
0.4

NA

N
A
1.0
1.9
N
A
6.8

913
914
915
916
917

B. Cyclical Indicators by E c o n o m i c Process
B l . E m p l o y m e n t and U n e m p l o y m e n t
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.'
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee-hours in nonagri. establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mining, mfg., construction
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Total unemployed (inverted4)
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3
*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3

.... U.CC
.... U,C,C.
.... C,C,C.
.... L,C,U..

A.r., bil. hrs...
Thousands
...do

U,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
L.Lg.U....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....

Thousands...
Percent
...do

Weeks
Percent

1.3
0.2
-0.2

37
43
45
91
44

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. GNPin 1972 dollars
52. Personal income in 1972 dollars
*51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and
construction, 1972 dollars
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA3
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB'
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB

C,C,C... A.r., bil. dol
do
C,C,C...
C,C,C...
C,C,C.

230.2

216.2

213.7

208.9

212.6

212.6

212.8

214.1

0.1

0.6

-2.2

1.8

53

C,C,C. 1967 = 100..
do
C,C,C.
do
C,L,L.
C,C,C. A.r., bil. dol..

151.0
140.5
164.8
689 5

138.6
124.7
156.2
661 3

138.2
124.8
156.4
665 1

135.3
119.8
155.7
655 . 3

138.4
124.0
158.7
658. 5

138.0
123.7
158.6

139.7
125.9
160.1

142.6
129.0
163.1

1.2
1.8
0.9

2.1
2.5
1.9

-2.1
-4.0
-0.4
-1.5

2.3
3.5
1.9
0.5

47
73
74
49

76
78.4
79 9

70
69.8
68 9

69
69.7
68.1

68
67.6
65 .8

N
A
69.1
68. 3

-1
-2.1
-2.3

N
A
1.5
2.5

83
82
84

LC U
L,C,U

Percent,
.do.
.do.

B3. C o n s u m p t i o n , Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance3 ©
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment (u)

L,L,L
L,L,L.
L,L,L.
L,L,L.
L,Lg,U..
L,L,L
C,C,C.
. C,C,C.
C,L,C.
C,L,U..
, U,L,U..
. L,C,C.
. L,L,L

79.95 81.85
79.92
77.45
73.62
72.66
83.68
75.03
33.91
34.79
34.02
32.89
31.75
31.15
37.61
...do..
32.48
31.84
31.94
31.62
31.47
29.84
28.13
...do..
33.28
29.45
0.36
1.84
1.55
-0.32
-3.88
-0.33
-0.15
-1.80
do
292.76 291.76 296.41 296.05 296.41 298.24
Bil. dol., EOP . 313.34 291.76
50
52
44
42
39
41
45
37
Percent

3.2
3.1
1.2
0.68
0.1
8

2.4
2.6
0.3
1.48
0.6
2

-1.3
-1.9
-5.7
3.55
-0.3
2

10.0
9.2
12.4
1.88
1.6
3

6
7
8
25
96
32

346.00
N
A
155.30
N
A
144.7
147.7
92,741 94,219
45,843 46,299

1.8
1.3
0.6
1.7
1.5

N
A
N
A
2.1
1.6
1.0

2.1
3.1
1.6
0.1
0.2
-0.1
3.9

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

Bil. dol

Bil. dol
do

354.08
159.08
147.9
1967 = 100
87,298
Mil. dol
45,299
do
67.2
A.r., bil. dol
70.7
I Q 1966 = 100

342.14
152.13
142.6
89,640
44,743
70.9
68.0

343.46
152.30
144.4
89,478
44,428
69.5
66.7

336.20
149.74
141.8
91,952
45,476
78.3
72.5

74.6

80.8

89.1

8.3

10.3

-2.1
-1.7
-1.8
2.8
2.4
12.7
8.7

112.6
N
A

113.4
N
A

113.0
N
A

111.7
N
A

-0.4
N
A

-1.2
N
A

1.0
10.5

-0.3
N
A

12
13

343.16
154.45
144.1
92,071
45,557
78.2
75.3

339.78
153.38
143.9
91,164
45,175

B 4 . Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment....
*20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
1972 dollars
24. New orders, capital goods indus, nondefense
27. New orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense, 1972 dollars




. L,L,L 1967 = 100....
. L,L,L Number
. L,L,L Bil. dol..
. L.L.L.
. L.L.L.. ...,
L.L.L..

113.2
111 .8 112.9
118.6
48,435 47,153 45,686 50,504
27.99

do
do

14.10
24.01

do

12.39

23.44

23.82

23.79

24.21

23.80

25.84

-1.7

8.6

1.6

-0.1

10

12.32
20.64

11.50
19.63

12.16
19.93

11.97
19.91

11.46
19.18

12.66
20.03

13.48
21.95

10.5
4.4

6.5
9.6

5.7
1.5

-1.6
-0.1

20
24

10.56

9.88

10.50

10.37

9.39

11.10

11.87

18.2

6.9

6.3

-1.2

27

24.78

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification1

3dQ
1982

4th Q
1982

1st Q
1983

51.63
21.04
70.39

Mar.
1983

Apr.
1983

3d Q

Mar.
to
Apr.
1983

59.10
20.96
69.67

Feb.
1983

Mar.
1983

to

4th Q
1982

4th Q
to
1st Q
1983

I. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S — C o n .
B 4 . Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t — C o n .
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dollars

57.38
21.16
70.39

57.84
18.48
74.29

77.72
26.42
92.74

C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil. dol...

321.49

C,Lg,Lg....
do
C,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100...
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil. dol...

348.63 324.94 319.57 308.95 308.20 300.91 315.04
181.1 157.9 153.1 147.2 144.5
172.0 165.7 163.4
160.9 163.1

L,L,L... A.r., thousands.
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol

3.2

315.79

1,087
80.0
44.9

1,061
80.7
40.3

3.44
34.2
0.03

-14.60
-14.7
-2.12

1,122
81.4
39.5

-10.7
13.9
-5.2

14.5
-0.4
-1.0

-4.1

L,C,U.... Mil. sq. ft
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .

9
11
97

-0.2

NA
146.7

4.7
0.9

NA
1.8

-3.3
-3.9
-1.5

-0.2
-1.8
1.4

69
76
86

1, 784
119.5

1,627
118.5

1,490
124.1

-8.8
-0.8

-8.4
4.7

12.
22,
8.6

35.0
18.5
15.9

28
29
89

-16.72
10.7
1.00

-9.27
-66.5
0.71

NA
NA
NA

7.45
-77.2
-0.29

NA1
NA1
NA!

-4.84
-40.4
0.22

-3.31
0.8
2.66

36
31
38

526.97 512.25 521.80 512.25 502.91 508.45 502.91
269.85 261.00 266.03 261.00 257.09 259.15 257.09

NA
NA
NA

-1.1
-0.8
-1.1

NA!
NA'

-1.8
-1.9
-3.1

-1.8
-1.5
-3.1

71
70
65

0.02

-0.09

0.87
-2.7
0.15

2.90
4.2
1.37

98
23
99

-1.3
-1.8
1.2
0.8
-0.7
-0.1

-4.6
-4.5
12.2
12.2
NA
0.8

16
18
79
80
15
26

1.8
1.6

0.5
-0.6

34
35

1,261
99.8
42.9

1,702
118.3
49.7

-20.3

-16.1

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories3
38. Change in materials on hand and on order3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods5
*77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, mfg.
and trade3
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on
order, mfg.5

L,L,L...

-9.2

..do..

L,L,L...
do..
L,L,L...
do..
L,L,1 Bil. dol
Lg.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do

89.55
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio

1.68
L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

-8.64
2.2
-2.05

-13.48 -16.79
-38.2 -37.4
-1.83
0.83

85.07

87.79

85.07

82.41

83.29

82.41

1.74

1.74

1.76

1.67

1.69

1 .66

-0.03

221.56 196.07 201.56 196.07 198.57 197.87 198.57

Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (u)
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3

L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967 = 100...
L,Lfl
Percent

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, S00 common stocks (u)

L,L,L... 1941-43 = 10.

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars
79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
1972 dollars
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L,L,L. A.r., bil. dol
L,L,L.
do
L,C,L.
do
L,C,L.
do
L,L,L. Cents
L,L,L. 1977 = 100

150.9
76.2
109.4
55.5
4.8
98.0

117.1
56.6
103.1
49.7
3.5
96.7

119.4
57.1
105.3
50.4
3.5
96.8

117.9
56.1
106.6
50.8
2.8
96.7

Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol...
L,L,L...
do

134.7

267.5
125.5

128.6

130.7

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic
product, nonfin. corporations
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
a) Actual data
*b) Actual data as percent of trend
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3

-0.93
283.4
-0.58

-0.38
242.5
-0.67

-1.02
237.4
-0.61

2.21
248.8
1.95

-0.66
253.2
2.03

-1.22
3.1
1.03

119.71 113.82 136.71 147.65 146.80 151.88 157.71

3.5

-0.15
231.1
-0.46

2.75
240.7
0.91

3.43
241.3
0.92

-2.87
1.8,
0.08

3.8

112.5
53.6
119.6
57.0
NA
97.5

Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100...

143.1

153.1

153.8

154.9

155.8

0.7

0.6

63

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars

1.305

1.391

1.392

1.409

1.411

1.2

0.1

68

Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1967 = 100...
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent

210.3
100.4

229.4
100.9

229.8
100.1

231.2
98.7

230.0
96.3

0.6
-1.4

-0.5
-2.4

62
62

230.4
96.5

228.9
95.2

227.1
93.8

-0.7
-1.3

-0.8
-1.4

Lg,Lg,Lg....

-0.4

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (Ml) 3
102. Change in money supply (M2)3
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed6)3
105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars
*106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml) 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 3 .
Credit
33.
112.
113.
*111.
110.

Flows:
Change in mortgage debt3
Change in business loans3
Change in consumer installment credit3
Change in credit outstanding3
Total private borrowing

L,L,L....
do..
L,C,U....
do..
L,L,L...
do..
L,L,L... Bil. dol
L,L,L...
....do..
... C,C,C...
.. C,Lg,C...

do

.. L,L,L. A.r., bil. dol...
do
. L,L,L.
do
.. L.L.L.
A.r., percent..
A.r., bil. dol...

0.52
0.81
0.95
197.9
789.8

0.69
0.73
0.86
198.5
813.9

6.832
1.407

0.72
0.93
1.00
196.6
814.4

6.681
1.368

1.07
0.73
0.75
202.0
829.3

1.34
1.80
NA
209.3
871.3

-1.58!
-0.67
NAi

1.32
0.93
NA
212.4
882.2

-0.26
0.26
NA
210.6
879.5

-0.55
-1.07
NA
1.2
0.8

-0.8J
-0.3

6.467
1.298

39.91 -6.75 -7.87 -33.86
36.32 16.75 11.56 -41.99
18.14 13.04
5.18 16.55
7.1
1.4
0.2
-5.9
319.58 267.99 25 3.15 253.06

-0.80
12.44
24.17
1.9
NA

35.06 -52.66
NA
-5.70 10.81 -32.63
8.82
30.98
NA
1.4
-1.4
0.1

-87.72
NA
16.51 -43.44
22.16
-2.8

0.27
1.07
NA
3.6
5.1

85
102
104
105
106

-0.171 -0.096
-0.015 -0.051

1.87
2.00
NA
209.9
875.3

107
108

-25.99
-53.55
11.37
-6.1
0.

33.06
54.43
7.62
7.8
NA

33
112
113
111
110

NA
0.01

NA
NA

14
39

0.35
-0.20
-0.25
2.7
1.8

Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 4 ) ©

39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 35




L,L,I

L,L,L.

Mil. dol
579.60
Percent, EOP .
2.37

NA

NA

2.18

2.19

NA
2.18

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA:

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
1

Series title and timing classification

Annual average

Mar.
3d Q
1982

4th Q
1982

1st Q
1983

Feb.
1983

Mar.
1983

Apr.
1983

Mar.
1983

3d Q

Apr.
1983

4th Q
1982

4th Q
to
1st Q
1983

I. CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S — C o n .
B7. M o n e y a n d C r e d i t — C o n .
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4)3 ©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Treasury bill rate 3 ©
116. Corporate bond yields 3 ©
115. Treasury bond yields 3 ©
117. Municipal bond yields 3 ©
118. Mortgage yields, residential3 ®
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3 ©
•109. Average prime rate charged by banks3 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
1972 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income3

L.U.U.... Mil. dol...
L,Lg,U....

-1,051
1,359

1,052

-390
718

-142
577

-166
636

-132
557

-413
850

-651
995

281
293

238
145

L.Lg.LgC,Lg,Lg...
Lg.Lg.LgC,Lg,Lg...
U,Lg,Lg..
Lg,Lg,Lg...
Lg,Lg,Lg...
Lg,Lg,Lg..

Percent
do
do
do
do
do
do
do

16.38
14.08
15.48
12.87
11.33
16.31
19.56
18.87

12.26
10.72
14.68
12.23
11.66
15.30
14.69
14.86

11.01
9.71
14.72
12.20
11.39
14.98
13,27
14.72

9.29
7.93
12.22
10.34
9.90
12.87
11.26
11.96

8.65
8.08
11.99
10.44
9.43
12.73
10.20
10.88

8.51
8.13
12.11
10.60
9.58
12.65

8.77
8.30
11.81
10.34
9.20
12.68

8.80
8.25
11.58
10.19
9.05
12.50

0.26
0.17
-0.30
-0.26
-0.38
0.03

0.03
-0.05
-0.23
-0.15
-0.15
-0.18

10.98

10.50

10.50

-0.48

Lg,Lg,Lg..
Lg,Lg,Lg..

Bil. dol., EOP .
Bil. dol

339.32 335.18 339.32
266.45

345.36

Lg,Lg,Lg...
Lg,Lg,Lg...

do
Percent

326.27

0.

-248
-141

93
94

-2.76

-0.64
0.15
-0.23
0.10
-0.47
-0.14
-1.06
-1.08

119
114
116
115
117
118
67
109

0.8
0.3

266.58
105.06

105.66

104.46

293.2
-0
288
301
314.4
317.6
310.5
285.6
282.8

293.4
0.1
290.1
300.5
313.4
319.4
308
286.7
282.0

295.5
0.6
291.3
300.8
312.6
323.9
307.6
285.9
282.0

153.4

153.4

153.9

95.3

95.0

94.8

NA
-1.0

1.2
-1.4

1.
-1.0

66
72

0.6
0.03

-1.1
NA

-1.5
-0.06

-1.1
0.12

101
95

0.7
0.5
0.4
0.1
-0.3
1.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.

0
0.2
-0.3
0.3
0.1
0.6
-0.9
0.3
0.6
1.

1.4
-0.1
0
0
0
-0.3
0.4
-0
0.8

310
320
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334

0.8
1.4

1.4
1
1
0.6
1.

341
345
346
370
358

II. OTHER I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C MEASURES
B. P r i c e s , Wages, a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y
B l . Price M o v e m e n t s
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer price index (CPI), all items ©
Change in CPI, all items, S/A3
CPI, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods
B2.

1972=100...
1967 = 100...
'ercent
1967 = 100...
do
do
do
do
do
do

195.5
272.4
0.7
274.6
293.4
304.1
329.0
306.0
264.3
271.3

207.2
289.1
0.3
285.7
299.3
312.3
319.5
310.4
279.6
280.9

208.5
292.8
0.3
287.3
300.0
312.9
318.9
310.5
281.6
282.4

210.4
293.4
0.
288.1
300.3
314.9
316.1
311.5
283.2
285.9

1977 = 100

138.9

148.4

149.6

151.4

154.9
96.
101,

93.7
157.0
97.0
102.0
100.4

213.4
293
0
288.9
300.6
313.9
317.5
309.9
285
282.5

0.6
0
0
0
0
0
0.3

Wages a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y

340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business..
370. Output per hour, private business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector

do
do

92.6
143.3
95.5
100.7
99.9

93.3
153.6
96.5
101.0
99.9

95.0
159.3
98
102.6
101.6

0.
-0.3

0.3
-0.

340

0.7
0.

C. L a b o r F o r c e , E m p l o y m e n t , a n d
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Labor
451.
452.
453.

Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over ..
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age..
Number unemployed, full-time workers

Millions
...do
Thousands...
do
do
do
do

Force Participation Rates:
Males, 20 years and over3
Females, 20 years and over3
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age3

Percent
...do..

Dl.

108.67 110.20 110.63 110.97 110.53 110.55 110.48 110.79
99.10
99.46
99.14
99.06
99.09
99.53
99.60
100.40
8,273 10,678 11,025 11,839 11,439 11,490 11,381 11,328
5, 581
5, 749
5,642
5,702
5, 320
5,829
5,089
615
3,889
3,925
3, 926
3, 729
3,684
3,961
3,613
895
1, 911
1,815
1,871
1,897
2,020
2,049
763
1,977
9, 751
9,872
9,811
9,702
9,289 10,118
9,006

79.0
52.1
55.4

78.7
52.7
54.1

78.8
53.0
53.9

-60.0
628.2
688.2
31.7
416.8
385.0

-149.5
613.9
763.4
32.1
437.2
405.1

613.
769.
32.
440.
408.2

78.
52.9
54.1

78.1
52.9
53.0

78.2
52.9
52.7

78.1
52.8
52.8

0.3
0.4
-0.5
2.
-4.1
-0.7
-0.5

0.3
-0

-0.4
-0.1
-3.4
-3
-0
-8
-3

441
442
37
444
445
446
447

-0.1
-0.1
0.1

0.2
0.
-0.

0.
-0.1
0.

-0
0
-1.1

451
452
453

-48.2

78.3
52.8
52.6

-0.1
0.
-0.9
-2.9
-0.9
5 . 3
-1.2

30
2.4
-1
5.8
2
1.1

500
501
502
510
511
512

13
18
55
3
-0.6
3.6

3.1
13.3
-4.6
2.5
-0.6
1.9

517
525
548
557
570
564

-7.5
-1.
-9.1
-6.8
-8.5
-11.3

3.3
10.2
-6.5
-0.8
-30.9
18.

602
604
606
612
614
616

D. G o v e r n m e n t A c t i v i t i e s
Receipts and Expenditures

500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts....
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures.

517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.

Defense Department obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
New orders, defense products
Output of defense and space equipment
Employment in defense products industries
National defense purchases

D2.

A.r., bil. dol.
do
.do.
do
.do.
do

-204.
-173.9
629
615.
803.8
819.2
42.2
36
460.4
450.0
418.2
413.5

Defense Indicators

...do..
..do..
1967 = 100..
Thousands....
A.r., bil. dol..

15,945 18,908 17,501 19,824 20,429 19,502 20,444
7,351
9, 278 10,977 12,434 13,042
8,065 10,718
7,152
6,569
7,497
5,319
4,830
4,917
6,246
116.7
113.8
117.8
109.5
116.0
102.7
109.3
1,346
1, 354
1,362
1,345
1,392
1,366
1,348
192
189.3
182.7
153.7
178.6

NA
NA
6,321
119.1
NA

4.8
-43.6
23.5
1.6
-0.

Mil. dol
....do..
do...
do..,
do..,
do...

19,456 17,694 17,614 16,290 16,824 16,326 16,752
2,98
2,811
2,975
2,733
2, 700
3,608
3,053
3, 501
3,359
3,499
3,745
4,119
4,456
4,007
21,751 20,329 21,120 19,684 19,520 19,015 19,525
3,261
3,429
2,85
4,961
5,419
6,319
2,675
2,676
2,254
3,019
2,540
2,190

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2.6
-5.8
4.2
2.7
14.1
-11.4

NA
NA
-3.8
1.1
NA

E. U.S. I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a n s a c t i o n s
E1. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total..
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts




Basic data2
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change

Annual average
1980

1981

2.07
85.52
83.45
-6.33
56.06
62.39
18.17
10.69

2.77
93.22
90.45
-6.97
59.06
66.04
21.49
13.23

A.r., bil. dol
do
A.r., dollars
A.r., bil. dol
do
do
A.r., dollars

2633.1
1474.0
6,475
1479.0
1824.1
1018.0
4,472

2937.7
1502.6
6,537
1493.7
2029.1
1043.1
4,538

A r, bil dol
do
do
do
do
do
do
do

1982

4th Q
1981

1st Q
1982

0.94
92.26
91.32
-9.18
57.59
66.78
21.73
13.20

3.08
90.01
86.93
-5.94
55.61
61.54
20.90
14.03

2dQ
1982

3d Q
1982

4th Q
1982

1st Q
1983

2dQ
to
3d Q
1982

3dQ
to
4th Q
1982

4th Q
to
1st Q
1983

; number 1

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued

.§

M

II. OTHER I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MEASURES—Con.
E2. G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s M o v e m e n t s E x c e p t
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Merchandise trade balance3
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Income on US investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in the U S

Bil. dol
do
do
do
do
do
do
do

-3.56
-3.67
3.93
87.13
81.86
91.09
90.70
85.53
87.16
-5.76 -12.50 -12.14
52.33
48.07
55.00
60.76
64.83
60.21
21.63
22.57
20.81
14.54
14.87
13.74

NA
NA
NA
-8.43
49.99
58.42
NA
NA

-7.49
-4.3
4.1
-6.74
-4.9
6.7
-4.2
-2.2

-0.11
-6.0
-5.7
0.36
-8.1
-7.1
-3.8
-5.5

NA
NA
NA
3.71
4.0
-3.0
NA
NA

667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

3059.3 3003.2 2995.5 3045.2 3088.2 3108.2
1476.9 1490.1 1470.7 1478.4 1481.1 1477.2
6,364
6,458
6, 360
6,380
6,375
6,342
1486.0 1485.3 1486.1 1482.7 1477.8 1497.5
2172.7 2101.4 2117.1 2151.5 2198.1 2224.3
1054.8 1051.9 1046.9 1054.8 1058.3 1059.1
4,545
4, 559
4,527
4,552
4,555
4,547

3170.9
1486.2
6,365
1502.3
2247.2
1064.6
4,559

1.4
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
2.2
0.3
0.1

0.6
-0.3
-0.5
1.3
1.2
0.1
-0.2

2.0
0.6
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.3

200
50
217
213
224
225
227

1667.2 1843.2 1971.1 1884.5 1919.4 1947.8 1986.3 2030.8
956.9
943.4
949.1
956.3
930.5
947.6
955.0
967.0
242.7
229.6
237.9
240.3
214.3
234.6
240.7
251.8
138.8
134.1
137.5
136.4
137.1
140.0
138.3
142.8
762.1
746.5
749.1
768.4
670.4
734.5
755.0
775.7
365.0
363.1
362.2
365.9
355.8
362.4
364.5
367.6
966.3
908.3
932.4
977 .6 1003.3
782.5
874.1
952.1
453.1
446.2
449.5
454.0
437.6
445.2
452.2
456.6

2054.2
973.1
257.3
145.1
776.8
369.7
1020.0
458.4

2.0
0.1
-0.2
-1.4
1.8
0.4
2.7
0.4

2.2
1.1
4.8
4.7
1.0
0.5
2.6
0.6

1.2
0.6
2.2
1.6
0.1
0.6
1.7
0.4

230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239

-0.06
87.52
87.58
-9.08
52.75
61.84
21.48
14.30

A. N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d P r o d u c t
A l . GNP and Personal Income
200
50.
217.
213.
224
225
227.

GNP current dollars
GNP, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP, 1972 dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income current dollars
Disposable personal income 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
A2. Personal C o n s u m p t i o n Expenditures

230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.

Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
Services, current dollars
Services, 1972 dollars

240
241
242
243
245.
30.

Total current dollars
Total 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment current dollars
Total fixed investment 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, current dollars3
Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3

A 3 . Gross P r i v a t e D o m e s t i c

Investment
do
do
do
do
do
do

402.3
208.4
412.4
213.3
-10.0
-10.0

471.5
225.8
451.1
216.9
20.5
20.5

420.3
196.9
444.1
206.1
-23.8
-23.8

468.9
218.9
455.7
214.1
13.2
4.8

414.8
195.4
450.4
210.8
-35.6
-15.4

431.5
202.3
447.7
206.7
-16.2
-4.4

443.3
206.3
438.6
202.9
4.7
3.4

391.5
183.5
439.9
203.8
-48.3
-20.3

421.3
196.7
458.6
212.8
-37.3
-16.1

2.7
2.0
-2.0
-1.8
20.9
7.8

-11.7
-11.1
0.3
0.4
-53.0
-23.7

7.6
7.2
4.3
4.4
11.0
4.2

240
241
242
243
245
30

do
do
do
do
do
do

538.4
284.6
197.2
106.5
341.2
178.1

596.9
287.1
228.9
110.4
368.0
176.7

647.4
291.3
257.9
116.4
389.4
174.9

626.3
291.3
250.5
116.0
375.7
175.3

630.1
289.2
249.7
114.4
380.4
174.9

630.9
285.3
244.3
110.3
386.6
175.0

651.7
291.1
259.0
116.2
392.7
174.9

676.8
299.5
278.7
124.7
398.0
174.8

676.4
292.9
274.0
118.3
402.5
174.6

3.3
2.0
6.0
5.3
1.6
-0.1

3.9
2.9
7.6
7.3
1.3
-0.1

-0.1
-2.2
-1.7
-5.1
1.1
-0.1

260
261
262
263
266
267

do
do
do
do
do
do

25.2
50.6
339.2
159.2
314.0
108.6

26.1
42.0
367.3
158.5
341.3
116.4

20.5
• 31.8
350.8
148.1
330.3
116.3

23.5
36.5
367.9
156.9
344.4
120.4

31.3
36.9
359.9
151.7
328.6
114.7

34.9
35.7
365.8
154.4
330.9
118.7

6.9
27.5
349.5
147.5
342.5
120.0

9.1
27.2
328.1
138.8
319.1
111.6

19.0
23.5
331.9
138.5
312.9
115.0

-28.0
-8.2
-4.5
-4.5
3.5
1.1

2.2
-0.3
-6.1
-5.9
-6.8
-7.0

9.9
-3.7
1.2
-0.2
-1.9
3.0

250
255
252
256
253
257

2455.6 2468.8 2523.9
1868.3 1876.1 1908.4
118.4
128.9
128.4
34.6
33.9
35.3
166.2
164.6
185.4
268.1
265.3
266.4

1.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
6.9
0.2

0.5
0.4
8.9
-2.0
-1.0
-1.0

2.2
1.7
-0.4
4.1
12.6
0.4

220
280
282
284
286
288

-4.3
2.5
5.3
-36.2
0.2

-14.0
0.9
-12.2
-44.0
-0.9

13.5
3.6
-1.1
36.0
-0.1

290
295
292
298
293

A4. Government Purchases
' o f Goods and Services
260
261.
262
263
266
267.

Total current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government current dollars
Federal Government 1972 dollars
State and local governments current dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars

250.
255.
252
256
253.
257.

. .. .

Net exports of goods and services, current dollars3
Net exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars3
Exports of goods and services current dollars
Exports of goods and services 1972 dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars

A5. Foreign Trade

A6.
220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.

National I n c o m e and Its C o m p o n e n t s

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest..
A7.

290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

do
do
do
do
do
do

2117.1 2352.5 2436.6 2404.5 2396.9 2425.2
1598.6 1767.6 1856.5 1813.4 1830.8 1850.7
124.7
120.3
124.1
116.4
117.3
116.3
33.9
34.1
33.6
33.9
34.2
32.9
190.6
160.8
183.9
157.1
155.4
181.6
235.7
264.9
249.5
258.7
267.5
187.7

Saving

Gross saving (private and government)
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate3

do
do
do
do
Percent

406.2
332.1
106.2
-33.2
5.8

414.0
477.5
389.2
374.5
142.2
130.2
-28.2 -117.4
6.5
6.4

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




476.3
389.1
158.6
-72.5
7.5

428.8
380.3
139.1
-90.7
6.6

441.5
384.6
144.3
-87.5
6.7

422.4
394.2
152.0
-123.7
6.9

363.3
397.7
133.4
-167.7
6.0

412.3
412.2
131.9
-131.7
5.9

2
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes
(July)(May)
P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
PT

(Apr.)(Feb.)
PT

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan.XJuly)
P T

Indellf 4 roughly comckient indicato

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

1
0



MAY 1983

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
(Nov.)(Oct.)

(July)(May)

(Aug.)(Apr.)

(Apr.)(Feb.)

PT

PT

PT

PT

(Nov.) (Mar.).
P
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

3. Margjna employment adjustments (series 1 , 2 , 1 5 )

investment commitments (series 1 2 , 2 1 2 9 )

estment and purchasing (series 8, 32,

916. Profitability (series 19,26, 80

lancial ftews (series 104,106,11!

. Ratio, coincident index to

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

BCII

MAY 1983




11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
(Jan.)(July)
P T

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.

12



MAY 1983

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P T

(July)(May)
P

T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)
P

T

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P

T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P

T

Change m sensitive material pr^srrwothed 1

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 6 9 , 7 1 , and 72.

BCD

MAY 1983




1
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P

T

(July)(May)
P

T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)
P

(Dec.)(Nov.)

T

P

T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P

T

(Jan.)(Ju!y)
P T

57. Manufacturing and
1972 dollars (bil.

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

1
4



MAY 1983

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Jan.)(July)

(Nov.)(Oct.)
P

P T

T

. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales,

per unit of output,
oftrefuHpersent) l

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

B t J I M Y 1983
A



1
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P

T

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

mmmmmmmmm

•iliiijmm

iliiiii]
IliiiliiH

llliili iiili

Mill

42-

jjj]jp

41-

40-

39-

38-

4-

3-

2-

5-

4-

3-

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
200-

300-

400-

500600700-

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 1

1-

2-

3-

4-

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (
3-

2-

1-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .

1
6



MAY 1983

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

1.4-

1.0-

0.6-

0.2-

200-1
175150125100-

75180170-

160-

150-

140100'95-

9085807570-

65282726252423222120- 1

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75.

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.

ItCII

MAY 1983




1
7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
mn

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
§§§§§

ni

m

ICoriiiensive Empgj ent—Con, |

iiiiiiii
lljl —7*
• f ffinifniiiiiMi
teriliiil Is• i
•P 1 i l «
1
y
ilftili

tio, civilian employment to total population of WOI

l i

"""
"

I i '" " HE
ffl

U,L|,U

^ .. 1
i
1

mmmmmmm—mmmitmmmmm

iy

i f kmnt]
f

It

IConf iensive UneH

lilil Ii

1
•1 1HI

JM9!
"is i

- Unemployment rate, total

•
•

I
ZBipl
{

w
ii
|i
: •

91.

Wl
•1

mm Bd scale)

1i
•

•I

f f

Average duration of unemployment (\ ^eeks-inverted scale:

iiils

54-

6-

1214-

67891011123-

5-

Iiiiiiii
n
0

'j *

?' ^g| %*qf

Unemployment rate, parsons unemployec 15 weeks and over (

55-

4-

pSgl

vMiiii ii I
H

ft
44,

iiiiiiii
iiiiiiii

•1/

W

1

iiliiiil

i
H

in -jf
I

lt|ift|jin nlliili

it t i|

mmmm

mi

^•••iiil fit If iiiiii ft!
lllfci| iiiiiiii

ifiiiii 1 1
1

*•«•

56-

5iliP II Ii li:ii iiii

Sill j i

i i /\/*tsl! js^j^r

f
f

iliillliiiiiliii
iiilllii

j

I

Averaj|0 wetMy insured uneni P l0 ymfflt rate

57-

10-

iiiiflBiiiiiB itapn

HI

' II 9p i i
is

58-

liilllii

"*ififclliil

ii i l l if 1
I
M1
i • • ii1\r •
I

If?

,1 1 •
1

iiiiBiiilj

lilpliiil

•

59*

IIII

I
I

Manna*

• II'

iiipiiiii liiBiiiiii
IlIiBiillii

iiiiissiisii
iiiiiiiiil

43

S I

1

iB-wve rttttl!
(m

Number unemployed, total

mm

i f

iiliiiil

1

IliB 1
1

IP

JUS

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

..i^B:^pI«lilIliliiii

678-

Bteiiiiisi

10-

•M|Eiiii|iiiiiiii

12-

^sHmiliiiliiliii

16-

14-

•L-hwtedscale) • • l i l i l i

18201-

2345-

1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18



MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P • T

50. GNP in 1972 cftiars, Q (ann. rate,
C

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

MAY 1983




1
9

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continjjed
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

1956

57

58

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
I

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

(Nov.)
P

71

72

73

(Mar.)
T

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20



MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
(Aug.) (Apr.
P T

(Novj
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

100-

908070605040-

30-

45-

IMHi
'HHH

40353025-

+6+4+ 20-2-4380340300260220180140-

100-

60-1

32. Vendor performance,

I

100755025-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

87

68

89

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

ItCII

MAY 1983




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

380-

340300260220-

180-

56. Manufacturing and trade sales

140-

and trade sales

(M. ctel.)

100160-1 =
V

140 H s
130 J ^

(index: 1987—100)

10090807060-

54, Sales of retail stores w current dollars (
50-

C.LU
40-

Sales of retail stores in 1972 M a r s (bil. dol.

OIul

X

90807060-

5040-

expenditures,
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

30-

20-

10090807060501956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

2
2



MAY 1983 \ \ \ \ \

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T
160-

[Foil

140-

12. Net business

12010065-

5545- '

13. New business i
35- '

25 J
35-1
3025-

, Contracts and
In current M a r s

[Business Investm

20-

plant and

•)ITTT1
15-

1030-

orders for plant and eqi
(bil. dol.)

2520 •

15-

2 4 Manufacturers'new orders, capi
nondefense, in current Mm (

10-

w orders, capital goods i
$72 dollars < 1 * L ) fiTl

5-J
1009080706050-

40-

(mL sq. ft. of floor area; MCD

I
1956 57

58 59

60 61 62

63

64 65

66

67 68

30-

69

70

71

72

73

74 75

76

77

78 79 80

81

82 1983

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

ItCII

MAY 1983




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

1956

57

58

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

2
4



MAY 1983

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

P

(Jan.) (July)

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

T

T

P

T

20018016014012010080-

60-

40-

2.6-|

2.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.8-

200180160140120100-

80-

60-

70605040301956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

ItCII

MAY 1983




2
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

on order, 1972 dollars

1. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade mventori

jlIHliiiilill
-1-2-3-4-

1956 57

58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983

!

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



MAY X983

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Jan.) (July)

T

P

T

71. Bookv
current
and trade inventories, 1972 Mm

65.

(bil.

Book value of
of finished goods

77, Ratio, constant-dollar i
and trade (ratio)

78.

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

Stocks of materials and supplies
manufacturing (bil. dol.)

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

MAY 1983




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

l i ":;i||^p^^i|||tfiicfr -prices
(percent; MCD moving arg.—6+ 2-

0-2-4-

-6J
+ 4-,
+ 2-

0-2-4340-

300260220-

market prices, raw industrials2 (index: 1967=100)

180-

140-

180160140120100-

80-

60-

180140-

100-

60-

20-«

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

78

79

80

81

82

1983

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

28



MAY 1983

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

BCII

MAY 1983




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P

T

(Jan.) (July)

T

P

T

170 -

16015014013012011010090-

63. Unit labor cost, private business
(index: 1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 )

80-

1.61.51.41.31.21.11.00.9-

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross
1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations,

0.8260240220200180160-

62.

140-

Labor cost per unit of output,

120-

100-

80-

Compensation of employees as a percent of
Q (percent)

7876747270-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
PT

in money supply M i
ent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

Change in M a i liquid assets (percent; moving

Money supply—Ml—in 1972 dollars (bil. do I.)

106. Money supply—M2—in 1972

107. Ratio, GNP to

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .

K C I I MAY 1983



31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

1956

57

58

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 72.

32



MAY 1983

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb

T

P

T

mmmmmwm)

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

ItCII

MAY 1983




3
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

. II

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

HI

201918-

[tab

17-

gates 1

16151413121110987-

171615141312111098-

1817161514131211109876543-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34



MAY 1983

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P

T

(Jan.) (July)

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

T

P

T

72. Commercial and
dollars (bl. dol.)

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

MAY 1983



35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
PT

lOO-i

50-

0J
100-i

50-

100-

50-

0-

100-|

50-

0-"

100-

50-

100 T

50-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

3
6



MAY 1983

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.MFeb.)
P T

^

100-

50-

«S«glIi

0-

Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q
9070-

&%M6Jr\ry

5030-

966. Industrial production—24
100-

mmm

50-

0-

Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo.
100-

50-

0-

100-

M

50-

mms

0-

960. Net profits, manufacturing—about 600 companies
90705030 J

1956 57

58 59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

57

68

69 70

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

80

81

82 1983

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

ItCII

MAY 1983




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

II

expenditures te new
- 2 2 industries (1-0
tual expenditures

manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

orders, manufacturing (

es, manufacturing (4-Q

manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

, wholesale trade

manufacturing ami Ir

1971 72

73 74

75 76

78

79

80

81

82 1983

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written perrr
1,400 business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38



1971 72 73

74

75

76

77 78 79

80 81

82 1983

Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about

MAY 1983

BCII

CYCLICAL
C

I

INDICATORS

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

1-month spans—
3-month spans
910c. Composite index of 12

920c. Composite index of 4 roughly

930c. Composite index of 6

48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural eslaPshments

Sic. Personal income \m it
payments in 1972 dollars

1956 57

58 59 60

61 62

63

64 65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 75

76

77

78 79 80

81

82 1983

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

ItCII

MAY 1983




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
(Aug.) (Apr/)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

^

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



MAY 1983

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dei

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 1

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .

BCII

MAY 1983




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

30. Change in business inventories, Q

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

42



MAY 1983

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

1 Annual rate, billion dollars (current) j
800700600-

500-

400-

300-

200-

100-i

350-i
300-

250-

200-

150-

m

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

100 J

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

BUI

MAY 1983




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

1956

57

58

(Apr.) (Feb.)

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44



MAY 1983

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

30-

20-

•HliiliiSiis
iiiiiiiissiiiiii

10 J

•mmmmmmmt wuzmmm

iiiiliilSlliiiSltiii
jiiimiiijiii
1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

BCII MAY 1983



45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
P
T
•ill ill
IllNlliiii

••I
••••• • • I
• I
iiifii
illSllll iilii

liiiiiilli

illliilil iilii

•I
•mit

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

HI

550
500

1111
1111
1111
iiliiliiiil
Iliiiiiiii
•iiilili

450
400
350'

fill 1 1 1 " 1

300250'

••••I

200-

!•••••

liiiiSiiiiiiii

150-

mil sii
••••ii

10080-

60-

40-

20 J
+ 20
0
-20'
-40'
-60-80
-100-120-140
-160-180-200-

10864-

1956

57

58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



MAY 1983

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

70-|

65-

60 J
20-1
State and loca
of goods and

15-

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

V

10248* Presidential fixed inves
5-

al fixed investment, Q
0-

247. Change in business inventories, Q
-5-

Perlli of Nationa

64. Compensation
75-

70-

65-1

valuation and
tments, Q

Corporate
capital con

10-

289. Net Interest

5-

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption ad

1956 57

58 59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78 79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

ItCII

MAY 1983




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart B l . Price Movements
(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

SSIil lS ISIIiiSli i i!i lSiSi|

iBiliiillili

1971 72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

1971 72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




MAY 1983

ItCII

OTHER 5MPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

C h a r t B 2 . Wages a n d Productivity
180160140-

341. Real average hour

120100-

80-

40. Average hourly earnings of production
private nofifarm economy (current dollars

60180160140-

346. Real average hourly
nonfarm business

120100-

8060-

40-

1956 57

58 59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 75

76

77

78 79 80

81 82 1983

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItClft

MAY 1983




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B ]

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

3 4 k . Real earnings

in averageiHsirly compensation, all employees,
,Q

6-month SpjJUann. rate) '

Current-dollar compensation

lad wage and benefit decisions, aft industries—
irst year average changes, Q (ann. rate)

verage changes over We of
act. Q (mm. rate)

hour, all persons,
sector, Q

370c. Change In output per hour, private;
1-tparter spans (ann* rate)

1956 57

58 59

60

61

62

63

64 65

66

67 68

69

70

71

72

73

74 75

76

77

78 79

80

81

82 1983

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them
comparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

5
0



MAY 1983

lt€l>

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P ' T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

T

120-j
1101009080-

70-

90858075605550454014-i
1210-

Number unemployed (millions)—

864-

445. Females 20 /ears
and over %
lJ

64-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

BCII

MAY 1983




51

OTHER IMPORTANT

ECONOMIC

MEASURES

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

T

(Nov.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P

P

T

PiiPi ip i

iliilll iili
ititiiI Iil

mil
II

liiiSllii

ill

III

liiiSi

I Illll

'& iBiiii liiiiii l i i i i i iisii p Wim' - •il- r.•/ i:~; -PP i i P i i vPii :P :P
lOOO-i

1

Piilsillllf

ill
il
l

ii

:

f Hill'

:
i l l 1 ||||p
| ff;fIp
III
| j I IIIIP:
II

i

(Mar.)
T

•

;ip; : i:p
i'i:Pi:iii;liiPP;:P

sif iiiil liiiiii B I I i i i i • Bii i ;i I i 1111:
200-

^Sijii

HIIII I I I
iili
11
1 liii
i
I iili

100 J

Ilillliil iiili
iliiiiiiiil

jllllilllj

liHliliii

II

m

till! fill

liiili
mi

lilSiifii

=111
111

ilti l i i i ! •

300-

iiiiiiii
200-

100-J
liii

Ifllll III
IliiBSii

l i l Hill 1 1
1
fillIf
1956

57

5
8 5
9 6
0 6
1 6
2 6
3 6
4 6
5 6
6 6
7 6
8 6
9 7
0 7
1 7
2 7
3 7
4 7
5 7
6 7
7 7
8 7
9 8
0 8
1 82

1 8
9 3

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52



MAY

1983

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
(Aug.) (Apr.)
PI

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T
3026221814-

517. Defense Department gross obSgations incurred

20-j
18«
16141210-

6-

$25. Defense Department
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.
15013011090-

70-

50-

12*
11-j
101
98-i
65-

548, Manufacturers'
(bii. dol.; MCD

2-1

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

MAY 1983




53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P T

siiiiiBpiiliiil m
iMe^Bi^lilMBIlliBlIil

! • •

•

W | | i:S J§

Biiilliiiilii

IISIIIl

ifliBBBUBBBBUBHI t H * * »4Bfll
lilliljfllilSBiiil'iiiiiiii

(Jan.) (July)
P T

nt (index: 1967 = 100)

-fciiiiiiiiii lisi
g i n -a i t ii m m m %
1st; IIP

fill

iiiiil ililB i l i i liliitf miii
? I Mill liiiiti iiiiil ilpiiliiiii iiiiii ^iiili l i

lilllB^B^illi .if;

i mam 'Mtm^%m iiiiil

•iliillilll >iii§iiii

130-i
1201101009080702018-

I iiilll ! • ! • HUB Siiiili Iiiiii iiiiili Iiiiiii 11 i ^ 8

16-

•111111—1

141210-

;(t^jPP
iliH

l l l l | i | |i
6-

HO-i
100-

siinmiiii
iiiliifK
HiiiHt

90807060-

i-iiUHHBIBHP61^'

50-

[ orders, deft

>BIBI1

40-

30-

illifililiilliim a ii«
fen ii mm m m nil«
i l i i IlliSII !!»lltt liliKsI

2018161412-

net outlays, milita

fktfig and m ^ ^ y

o •IllII

4HHRU

10-

liHglllllsflili^
6-

6.0-t
5.55.04.5-

illilililliBiB.
liililililllllSip H B » e av«-

3.5-

liiiiiii

3.0-

•illiIl!lBIIIIii^|j|||j|

2.52.0-

1.5-

1956 57

58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

5
4



MAY 1983

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

and FMMeasures of Defense Activity—Con.
570, Employment in

1.81.61.41.21.0-

Defense Department
577.
3.5-i
3.02.52.0578. Civilian, direct hire employment
1.5-

1.0-

0.5J
1 National Defense P
llillliliMlllllSSllllpj

••••••lii
564. Federal Government
defense, Q (ann.rate

ses of goods a
oL)

220-]
2001801601401201008060-

40 J

565. National defense
10987654*

1956 57

58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

ItCII

MAY 1983




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
24201612-

Exports, excluding
(bil. dol.; MCD moving

654-

32-

1-

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (b«.

26-|
22181410-

6J

HI

General imports (bil. dol.; MCD moving
10.09.08.07.06.05.04.0-

3.02.0-

1.00.8-

0.6-

0.4-

0.2-

1956 57

58 59

60

61

62

63

64 65

66

67 68

69

70

71

72

73

74 75

76

77

78 79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56



MAY 1983

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

1956 57

58

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

MAY 1983




5
7

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
PT

280-1
260-

mniliiiii liilipiPpflil:: IIII m m a m J 111 is
iimii iiiiiiii jiiiiiyipBwJiiii :iiiil
iiiill

m

«j »iiiiiia mmmmmm m mm M « m m n i t m 11 240Ililll IHIIillll: Illiilili~illill IBaillll: 1^ III II |1|: III ll ||; IIII; jff II; II 220200-

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

180160-

•NHlHi

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

5
8



MAY 1982

RCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F3. Stock Prices

Chart F2. Consumer Prices
(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July)

(Mar.)
T

P

(Nov.)

T

P

(Jan.) (July)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

iiiiiiiiSiii

lliilil'ilillllllli aiilllilpiii

mit+20-1
iiyiillllliliiiiiii

jiilw liiiiii|!ii

liliiiliiiiilii

ijiSii

iBilBr

iii iiiiii Iiiiiiii

't&st, mm mmm. •$ -'mmmm liliiil:iiili;iii
Wmmmmmmmmm

200-1
18016014012010080-

ill II ii i i i II li 1
1

o-J

700-|
600-

^H^HBHIIIBIiill

500-

iiiiiiiiii
"liiilllllii

•

Ililil SlllSli 1 1 1 jmSS illlll llllli illlll liili
111
iiiiiiii iiiiiiii s III i i i i i i !• i III i II II::

iiii
iiii

IIII
IIII

1
| 1111
1
iHHIiili Illlllill liillllli Ii Illl 11 Illllllil Illlll ; 1 1 1 1

BHHHH•lillllll
p^ilppilipiiiiiilii

1-30-

20-

iiiiiiliiiwwii iliiiii^il

40 -I
Iiiiiii iiiiiii
iiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiii
!;|l|||Iil|||$pil|:;i

300-i

illlllBillliiilSillllSSiflSSj

3

+ 10-

lllllliliilill

§1111 l l l i l l i

260220180-

lilili Iiiiii

0-

140-

100-

1971

72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983

1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

KCII

MAY 1982




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

0 1
920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

930. Index o
f
6 lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91,
95, 101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

Year
and
month

910. Index ot
12 leading indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index

(1967 = 100)

COMPOSITE INDEXES

Leading indicator subgroups

913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2, 3,
5)

914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)x

915. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

(1967 = 100)

917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104, 106, 111)

(1967 = 100)

(2)

1981
January
February
March

142.1
140.4
141.7

146.8
147.2
147.2

121.7
120.7
119.0

120.6
122.0
0)123.7

94.2
94.1
94.1

110.7
109.3
109.8

100.5
100.5
100.7

98.2
98.8
99.0

122.2
122.1
122.2

April
May .
June

144.6
144.5
143.2

147.1
146.9
147.5

119.0
122.2
122.4

123.6
120.2
120.5

94.9
94.2
94.5

110.5
109.3
107.3

101.8
102.5
102.6

98.7
98.1
98.4

123.5
123.2
123.1

July
August
September

142.9
142.4
139.3

0)147.6
147.3
146.5

122.5
123.3
124.7

120.5
119.5
117.5

0)95.0
93.6
91.4

107.1
107.0
106.3

H>102.6
102.1
101.2

98.2
98.5
96.9

123.3
123.8
122.9

October
November
December

136.9
137.0
136.2

144.5
143.0
140.9

125.0
124.5
124.4

115.6
114.9
113.3

90.5
90.3
89.3

104.3
105.4
105.1

99.8
98.7
97.8

96.9
97.1
96.2

121.7
122.2
122.2

135.1
135.7
134.7

138.4
139.9
139.2

0)126.1
125.3
125.1

109.8
111.7
111.3

(NA)

104.2
104.2
104.0

96.7
96.5
96.6

94.5
93.2
92.6

123.3
122.1
122.2

136.0
136.2

125.9
125.1
124.8

109.6
111.0
109.9

104.9
rlO4.2
rlO3.O

96.4
97.1
97.6

93.1
93.0
92. (

123.0
122.4
122.2

1982
3

January
February
March
April
May
June

rl35.6

138.0
138.8
137.2

July
August
September

rl36.4
rl36.5
138.0

136.3
135.2
134.3

124.1
122.2
121.3

109.8
110.6
110.7

104.1
rlO3.3
rlO3.8

r97.8
r98.2
r98.7

92.7
93.0
94.6

122.5
124.5
124.2

October
November
December

rl39.0
rl39.7
141.1

132.2
132.3
132.1

120.5
118.2
rll6.5

109.7
111.9
rll3.4

rlO4.9
rlO5.5
rlO7.3

98.4
r97.4
r96.6

95.7
96.3
r97.4

122.7
rl22.4
rl22.4

rl45.3
rl47.4
150.7

rl33.9
rl33.4
rl34.4

rll5.1
rll5.0
.113.9

rll6.3
rll6.0
rll8.0

rlO6.4
rlO7.1
rlO7.4

r97.7
r99.2
rlO1.3

r98.8
0)r99.9
(NA)

rl29.2
rl31.4

5

6

P12O.5

P107.7

plOl.6

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

0)*152.4

135.7

112.6

Drl31.9

P131.8

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated b y 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
x
Series 914 reached its high value (111.8) in September 1980.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the February 1982 issue.
3
Includes a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1982 issue.
^Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
5
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
6
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60




MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q g

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

L, L, L

L, C, L

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)

L.L, L

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing 1

(Per 100 employees)

L,C,L

L, L, L

5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance 2

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Thous.)

(3)

1981

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

(Hours)

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(Per 100 employees)
(3)

L, Lg, U

4. Quit rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

U, C, C

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed1

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapers *

48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments

(Ratio)

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

(3)

H>40.4
39.7
39 9

3.0
2.8
2 8

3.5
3.5
3 4

424
410
413

1.4
1.3
1 3

1.4
1.4
1 3

0.474
0.478
0 467

128
129
125

H)171.34
170.18
170 74

April
May
June

40.1
40.2
40.1

0)3.1

3.0

3.0

3.4
3.1
3.4

395
401
405

1.1
1.3
1.3

1.3
1.3
1.4

0.447
0.432
0.448

118
118
121

169.54
170.75
170.66

July
August
September

40.0
39.9
39.4

3.0
3.0
2.7

3.4
3.2
2.9

0)395
421
483

0)1.0
1.4
1.7

0)1.5
1.3
1.3

0.466
0.440
0.403

123
119
112

171.00
170.91
167.29

October
November
December

39.5
39.3
39.1

2.7
2.5
2.4

2.9
3.1
2.7

517
539
551

2.2
2.3
2.2

1.2
1.1
1.1

0.378
0.366
0.346

110
111
109

169.66
168.68
168.56

January
February
March

37.6
39.4
39.0

2.3
2.4
2.3

(NA)

563
514
566

(NA)

(NA)

0.338
0.317
0.289

106
103
96

165.54
168.82
167.81

April
May
June

39.0
39.1
39.2

2.4
2.3
2.4

566
585
551

0.255
0.249
0.242

88
87
85

167.12
167.88
166 40

July . .
August
September

39.2
39.0
38.8

2.4
2.4
2.3

533
605
653

0.228
0.212
0 192

83
78
73

166.04
165.50
165 48

October .
November
December

38.8
38.9
38.9

2.3
2.3
2.3

651
616
531

0.195
0.195
0.205

76
78
83

164.27 .
163.32
164.13

January
February
March . .

39.8
39.1
39.6

2.3
2.3
r2 5

507
478
A7Q

0.216
0.215
0 217

83
83
83

165.80
rl63.89
r l 6 4 89

April
May
June . . .

P40.1

p3.0

470

pO.216

p82

P166.24

January
February
March

1982

1983

July . .
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1981: Series 2 (3.7) in October 1980, series 60 (0.497) in November 1980, and
2
s
series 46 (134) in November 1980.
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New
Features and Changes for This Issue" (item 2) on page iii of the February 1982 issue.

ICO

MAY 1983




61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-ContlmMCl

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

1 1

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment-Continued

month

CCC

L.C.U

U, Lg, U

42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey

40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age

(Thous.)

Year
and

U,C,C

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

I Lg, U

L. Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey

43. Unemployment rate,
total

45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programsl

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

L. Lg. U

Lg. Lg, Lg

Lg. Lg, Lg

1981
96,544
96,803
97,148

90,909
90,913
91,014

25,588
25,501
25,588

58.38
58.43
58.58

8,048
8,032
7,967

7.5
7.4
7.3

3.5
3.4
3.4

14.3
14.0
13.9

2.2
2.2
2.1

97,487
B>97,597
97,033

91,099
91,131
91,286

25,534
25,540
25,656

0)58.80
58.72
58.31

7,860
8,133
8,047

7.2
7.5
7.4

3.3
3.3
3.2

13,
13,
14,

2.0
2.0
2.1

July
August
September . .,

97,428
97,313
96,746

B>91,396
91,322
91,363

B>25,718
25,637
25,583

58.44
58.36
57.94

H>7,854
8,053
8,271

H>7.2
7.4
7.6

3.2

»?:§

14,
14,
13.6

2.0
H>2.0
2.1

October
November . . ,
December . ..

96,981
96,840
96,458

91,224
90,996
90,642

25,393
25,176
24,908

58.02
57.88
57.51

8,673
9,025
9,389

8.0
8.3
8.6

3.5
3.8
4.1

13,
13,
H>12.9

2.1
2.2
2.2

January
February
March

96,309
96,328
96,230

90,460
90,459
90,304

24,684
24,631
24,450

57.46
57.41
57.29

9,346
9,669
9,881

8.6
8.8
9.0

4.1
4.1
4.3

13.4
14.0
13.9

2.2
2.5
2.7

April
May
June

96,128
96,548
96,310

90,083
90,166
89,839

24,289
24,255
23,994

57.17
57.40
57.17

10,256
10,384
10,466

9.3
9.4
9.5

4.5
4.5
4.5

14.3
14.9
16.3

2.8
3.0
3.2

July
August
September . . .

96,143
96,254
96,180

89,535
89,313
89,264

23,840
23,657
23,530

57.06
57.06
56.92

10,828
10,931
11,315

9.8
9.9
10.2

4.5
4.7
5.0

15.6
16.1
16.6

3.2
3.3
3.5

October
November . . .
December . . .

95,763
95,670
95,682

88,877
88,750
88,565

23,239
23,081
22,986

56.65
56.57
56.50

11,576
11,906
12,036

10.5
10.7
10.8

5.2
5.2
5.0

17.1
17.3
18.0

3.8
4.1
4.3

January
February
March

95,691
95,670
95,729

88,920
r88,759
r88,955

23,162
23,018
r23,050

56.46
56.38
56.36

11,446
11,490
11,381

10.4
10.4
10.3

4.5
4.5
4.4

19.4
19.0
19.1

4.2
4.2
4.2

April
May
June

96,088

p89,213

p23,183

56.51

11,328

10.2

p4.4

19.0

3.9

January
February
March
April
May
June

1982

1983

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
'Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62



MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C, C, C

C C, C

50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars

C, C, C

52. Constant
(1972) dollars

51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Personal income

223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C.C/C

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

47. Index of
industrial
production,
total

(1967=100)

C, C,C

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

(1967=100)

C, U L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1967 = 100)

C, C, C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1981
January
February
March

1,507.8

2,308.1
2,330.
2,351.

1,227.1
1,232.2
1,234.5

1,056.2
1,061.9
1,064.0

E>234.3
232.2
231.9

151.4
151.8
152.1

141.0
140.8
142.1

165.6
166.
165,

692.8

April
May
June

1,502.2

2,364.5
2,379.1
2,398.4

1,234.7
1,234.0
1,239.5

1,064.5
1,065.0
1,069.4

231.6
231.5
232.1

151.9
152.7
152.9

142,
143,
143,

165.9
166.4
165.8

689.8

July
August
September . . .

1,510.4

2,436.3
2,459.6
2,478.6

1,248.1
1,253.6
1,253.1

'1,071.8
1)1,078.3
1,077.9

231.8
231.
228.

(H>153.9
153.6
151.6

1)143.6
143.4
140.9

167.1
B>167.3
165.9

H>697.2

1,490.1

2,487.2
2,499.0
2,497.6

1,251.1
1,250.1
1,245.7

1,076.5
1,074.3
1,069.3

228.
226.
223.2

149.
146,
143.4

137.8
134.4
131.3

162.8
160.3
157.4

678.0

January
February
March

1,470.7

2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6

1,236.0
1,243.8
1,245.0

1,061.7
1,068.8
1,068.3

222.4
223.8
221.7

140.7
142.9
141.7

127.1
129.3
128.2

155.1
157.8
157.3

661.8

April
May
June

1,478.4

2,535.5
2,556.2
2,566.3

1,249.6
1,256.7
1,248.8

1,070.3
1,077.4
1,070.3

220.9
220.1
217.3

140.2
139.2
138.7

126,
126.
125,

156.1
155.0
155.3

663.2

July
August
September . . .

1,481.1

2,588.3
2,592.0
2,597.2

1,251.0
1,248.6
1,245.1

1,067.5
1,065.4
1,061.3

215.5
213.6
212.1

138.8
138.4
137.3

125.9
124.9
123.5

155.7
156.9
156.7

665.1

October
November . . .
December . . .

1,477.2

2,609.4
2,627.7
2,635.0

1,242.6
1,251.3
1,254.2

1,055.6
1,061.0
1,063.2

209.4
208.5
208.9

135.7
134.9
135.2

120,
119,
119.9

156,
155,
155.6

655.3

rl,486.2

2,641.7
r2,644.0
2,658.9

rl,253.2
rl,253.7
rl,257.2

rl,065.9
rl,066.1
rl,069.5

212.4
r212.6
r212.8

rl37.4
rl38.0
rl39.7

rl22.5
rl23.7
rl25.9

rl57.4
rl58.6
rl60.1

r658.5

B>p2,679.1

E>pl,259.0

pi,071.3

P214.1

pl42.6

P129.0

pl63.1

October
November . . .
December . . .

1982

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

ItCII MAY 1983



63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

Year
and
month

0 1

PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued

83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)

Orders and Deliveries

L, L, L

L, C, U

L, C, U

82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries

84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials

6. Current
dollars

7. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

Revised1

(Percent)

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Revised1

1981

L, L, L

8. New orders
for consumer
materials in
1972 dollars

(Bil. dol.)
Revised1

L, L, L

L, Lg, U

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Revised1

L, L, L

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ©
(Percent
reporting)

Revised1

.
9

.
2

83.17
83.54
83.77

38.52
38.54
38.41

33.31
34.50
34.15

1.13
0.93
-0.30

316.32
317.25
316.95

46
50
52

81.2

87.38
.31
88.20

39.72
H>39.92
39.61

34.92
E>35.29
35.16

1.92
2.37
0.86

318.87
321.23
322.09

E>56

79.8

January
February
March

79.3

81.1

86.94
85.84
83.38

38.83
38.15
36.94

34.45
33.44
32.48

0.84
-0.32
-0.67

0)322.93
322.61
321.94

46
48
43

74.8

75.2

78.47
79.03
76.11

34.65
34.66
33.34

31.00
30.22
30.50

-3.43

318.61
316.77
313.34

38
32
30

78

April
May
June

H>78

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .

76

72

52
48

1982
January
February
March

71.6

72.0

76.70
77.36
78.18

33.54
33.82
34.12

29.18
29.45
30.55

0.23
-1.17
-0.55

313.57
312.40
311.85

32
36
35

70.3

69.6

76.74
76.35
76.16

33.44
33.15
32.93

29.30
30.77
30.29

-1.07
-3.33
-3.04

310.78
307.45
304.41

31
30
38

69.7

68.1

75.56
72.96
72.35

32.63
31.49
31.14

30.29
29.60
29.62

-3.29
-4.28
-4.07

301.12
296.83
292.76

37
40
40

67.6

.65.8

70.74
71.07
76.18

30.42
30.45
32.57

27.91
28.22
28.25

-1.74
-1.94
2.68

291.02
289.08
291.76

44
40
38

r68.3

82.36
77.45
79.95

35.27
32.89
33.91

31.55
31.47
31.84

B4.61

r69.1

-0.32
0.36

296.37
296.05
296.41

41
42
50

p81.85

P34.79

p31.94

pi.84

P298.24

52

72

April
May
June

71

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .

69

p68

1983
January
February
March

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

64



MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Contlnued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0 1

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C r C, C

CCC

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

C,L,C

75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods

(1967 = 100)

CL.U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current

(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

• 1
H I

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued

59. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

L,C,C

L.L.L

L.L.L

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment ®

(1st Q
1966=100)

12. Index of
net business
formation *

(1967-100)

L.L.L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1981

353,785
353,633
354,712

160,549
160,469
160,614

146.9
147.8
148.3

85,355
86,058
86,978

45,571
45,654
45,874

71.6

71.4
66.9
66.5

121.6
120.7
120.8

46,039
48,588
47,972

356,418
357,223
B>359,187

161,180
160,775
1)161,968

148.9
150.7
150.3

86,746
86,939
87,948

45,512
45,375
45,759

63.0

72.4
76.3
73.1

121.9
119.1
117.3

49,413
48,997
49,172

July
August
September . . .

358,632
357,921
356,660

160,810
159,755
159,193

E>150.7
149.6
147.8

87,759
88,775
88,562

45,377
45,737
45,323

71.5

74.1
77.2
73.1

118.2
118.7
117.6

49,038
48,631
48,450

October
November . . .
December . . .

349,772
347,319
343,741

155,344
155,069
153,281

146.5
144.0
142.0

87,231
87,358
87,409

44,506
44,480
44,415

62.8

70.3
62.5
64.3

114.8
117.4
115.2

47,947
49,413
47,556

January
February
March

338,271
343,090
344,417

150,131
153,317
153,878

139.6
141.8
141.5

86,542
88,049
87,701

43,642
44,492
44,361

68.0

71.
66.
62.

113.2
115.6
113.5

43,330
47,234
46,899

April
May
June

341,930
350,931
348,141

152,207
155,982
153,903

142.1
143.6
144.8

88,468
90,813
88,603

44,726
45,750
44,235

67.8

65,
67,
65.

115.2
114.
rll2.

46,876
46,995
45,936

July
August
September . . .

346,641
342,029
341,702

153,618
151,683
151,612

145.8
144.1
143.4

89,469
89,069
89,897

44,490
44,247
44,548

69.5

65,
65.
69.3

rll2.4
rll2.6
rll0.4

44,525
46,981
45,552

October
November . . .
December . . .

335,184
336,747
336,663

148,436
150,225
150,560

142.2
141.3
142.0

90,905
92,492
92,459

44,847
45,765
45,817

.3

73.4
72.1
71.9

rill.5
rll2.9
rll4.4

45,530
48,474
i>57,507

343,690
r339,775
p346,003

rl54,661
r153,376
pl55,303

143.6
rl43.9
rl44.7

r92,308
r'91,164
r92,741

r45,652
r45,175
r45,843

78.2

70.4
74.6
80.8

rill,4
rll3.4
r.113.0

p49,999
(NA)

P147.7

H>p94,219

Dp46,299

.1

pill.7

January
February
March
April
May
June

1982

1983
January
February
March

(NA)

April .
May .
June .

(NA)

July . . . .
August . .
September
October. .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.

Series 12 reached i t s high value (122.7) in December 1980.

MAY 1983



65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

1 ^

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

L, L, L

L, L, L

Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

10. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

1981

20. Constant
(1972) dollars1

(Bil. dol.)

Revised4

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, C, U

L, L, L

27. Constant
(1972) dollars1

(Bil. dol.)

U, Lg, U

Square feet of
floor space

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space 3

(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings 12

C, Lg, Lg

(Bil. dol.)

Revised4

28.66
26.59
27.76

14.91
12.76
14.20

25.02
22.70
23.99

13.32
11.06
12.56

83.72
83.86
83.79

D30.56
28.61
28.96

15.03
14.29
14.02

H>26.00
24.56
24.62

13.05
12.53
12.14

79.64
84.75
81.01

28.12
28.14
27.98

13.65
14.30
14.29

24.16
24.74
24.36

11.94
12.83
12.75

73.46
78.67
68.12

6.33

27.09
27.82
25.58

13.58
14.31
13.91

22.66
24.30
21.05

11.68
12.80
11.98

74.26
70.77
70.65

6.90
6.57
6.56

22.99

January
February
March

26.77
29.36
25.94

13.40
13.49
13.29

21.86
22.41
21.71

11.32
10.54
11.49

58.18
63.29
61.15

5.40
5.88
5.68

25.77

April
May
June

26.23
23.30
23.97

rl4.10
11.56
11.08

22.81
20.31
19.93

12.54
10.28
9.35

58.93
53.71
64.87

47
99
03

19.33

July
August
September . . .

22.94
22.88
24.49

10.96
11.30
12.25

19.93
18.74
20.22

9.68
9.53
10.43

57.80
59.78
55.95

37
55
20

18.48

October
November . . .
December . . .

23.46
23.63
24.37

12.00
11.43
13.04

20.13
19.98
19.68

10.57
9.88
11.06

54.65
50.69
49.55

5.08
4.71
4.60

r21.04

23.35
24.21
23.80

11.80
11.46
rl2.66

20.51
19.18
20.03

10.63
9.39
rll.10

66.89
57.77
52.65

6.21
5.37
4.89

p20.96

P25.84

P13.48

p21.95

pll.87

54.32

5.05

January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July

August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .

7.78
7.79
7.78

27.70
93.44
H)28.06

96.18
26.94

0)97.34

92.74

1982

91.11

82.82

74.29

r70.39

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

p69.67

July
August
September . . .

October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
lr
The following series reached their high values before 1981: Series 20 (15.66) in December 1980, series 27 (14.12) in December 1980, and
2
series 9 (90.80 square feet and 8.44 square meters) in November 1980.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be re3
produced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

66



MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q | FIXED

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures
C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures

76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, Lg, C

C, Lg, U

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year
and
month

CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars
86. Total

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

28. New
private housing
units started,
total
(Ann. rate,
thous.)

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(1967=100)

L, L, L

89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1

Revised1

1981

L, L, L

January . .
February .
March

312.24

334.06
331.57
343.92

177.7
177.5
179.3

169.7

49.5

120.1

1,588
1,279
1,305

98.6
96.8
95.6

49.6

April
May . . . .
June . . . .

316.73

346.49
345.24
354.39

181.0
182.0
183.6

170.1

51.0

119.1

1,332
1,150
1,047

96.1
94.7
78.8

47.3

July . . . .
August . .
September

1)328.25

350.07
358.72
E>359.74

H>184.8
184.4
182.7

173.9

52.5

D121.4

1,035
949
900

75.5
71.8
68.4

42.9

October . .
November
December

327.83

349.39
357.55
352.40

180.5
179.0
179.0

0)174.2

53.3

120.9

866
839
906

59.0
60.4
64.3

39.9

January . .
February .
March . . .

327.72

333.35
342.86
343.63

172.2
171.6
169.0

172.0

53.5

118.5

877
911
920

64.6
66.2
71.3

38.9

April .
May .
June .

323.22

327.53
334.41
331.93

164.9
159.9
156.7

166.7

0)53.7

113.0

911
1,028
910

71.1
76.8
74.6

40.1

July
August . .
September

315.79

324.92
314.51
319.28

154.9
153.9
150.5

163.4

53.0

110.4

1,185
1,046
1,134

86.0
75.0
83.1

39.5

October
November . . .
December . . .

302.77

307.27
309.34
310.23

147.1
146.4
148.1

160.9

52.3

108.6

1,142
1,361
1,280

93.
99.
107.1

42.9

January . . .
February . .
March

a3O2.25

308.64
300.91
315.04

rl46.6
rl42.8
rl44.1

rl63.1

r51.9

rill.2

1,694
B>rl,784
rl,627

116.9
119.5
118.5

G>r49.7

April
May . . . .
June

(NA)

pl46.7

pi,490

H> 124.1

a3O2.2O

1982

1983

July
August . .
September
October . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

1

MAY 1983




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Inventory Investment

Inventories on Hand and on Order

L.L.L

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars

36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars

31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total

38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Smoothed

Monthly
data
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

2

2.4

April
May
June

78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

(Bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

(Bil. dol.)

Revised2

79.89
81.01
82.63

1.63
1.64
1.64

222.56
222.88
222.50

1.26
1.27

504.80
508.21
511.27

263.41
264.70
265.92

82.96
84.65
85.30

1.63
1.65
1.64

223.77
225.42
226.70

0.62
3.63
7.92

20.0
40.9
36.8

1)1.66

12.1

77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade

262.33
263.33
263.10

B>65.3
23.4

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

495.75
501.18
503.14

-6.36
-5.79
-1.92

35.5

L, Lg, Lg

1.36
0.32
-0.38

-15.14
15.31
-5.82

16.88

January
February
March

Lg, Lg, Lg

Revised2

Revised

1981

Lg, Lg, Lg

July
August
September . . .

5.68
4.98
14.94

H>12.68
11.41
8.86

31.0
56.5
51.9

1.05
-1.10
0.75

513.86
518.57
522.89

266.53
267.56
269.42

85.50
87.08
88.30

1.66
1.67
1.69

H>227.75

H>16.5

October
November . . .
December . . .

4.8

-0.94
-2.92
-20.29

7.43
5.01
-2.18

29.3
39.6
-19.8

-3.01
-1.78
-1.05

525.33
(H> 528.62
526.97

270.47
D271.17
269.85

89.34
E>90.00
89.55

1.74
1.75
1.76

224.39
222.61
221.56

-15.4

-33.56
-27.19
-8.68

-13.49
-22.97
-25.08

-35.6
-23.6
-10.4

-1.87
-2.82
-1.88

524.01
522.04
521.17

267.69
266.45
265.98

89.14
89.78
89.90

1.78
1.74
1.73

219.69
216.87
214.99

-4.4

-7.33
-27.00
-7.33

-18.77
-14.37
-14.11

32,
-56,
24,

-2.08
-2.03
-3.18

523.89
519.21
521.24

266.54
264.54
265.18

89.19
88.32
87.56

1.75
1.70
1.72

212.91
210.88
207.70

July
August
September . . .

1.02
-12.78
2.63

-12.50
-8.73
-4.70

2.2
3.8
0.6

-1.57

3.4

521.43
521.75
521.80

265.56
265.46
266.03

88.22
88.30
87.79

1.73
1.75
1.75

206.13
204.01
201.56

October
November . . .
December . . .

-20.3

-16.28
-40.57
r-15.35

-5.93
-13.44
r-21.07

-12
-65,
-36.2

-1.94
-1.85
-1.69

520.72
515.26
512.25

265.23
262.25
261.00

87.61
86.40
85.07

H>1.79
1.75
1.73

199.62
197.77
196.07

r-16.1

r-18.16
r7.25
p-18.43

r-24.38
r-16.72
p-9.27

-56.3
rlO.7
p-66.5

0.79
1.00
pO.71

507.56
r508.45
P502.91

r258.89
r259.15
p257.09

83.78
83.29
82.41

1.67
1.69
pi.66

196.86
197.87
198.57

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

226.65
227.40

1982
January
February
March
April
May
June

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on paces 13, 15, 26, and 27.
x
a

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

L.L.L

98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
materials

(Percent)

L, L,L

U, L, L

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials1 2

(1967 = 100)

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

L, L, L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed
data 3

Monthly

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks <§)

(1941-43=10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars

18. Constant
(1972) dollars:

L,C, L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj *
79. Current
dollars

80. Constant
(1972) dollars

L, L, L

22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic
income *

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)

84.0

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

108.9

56.8

9.8

(Percent)

1981

-1.81
-2.50
0.64

291.6
284.2
289.8

-1.60
-2.08
0.92

0.16
-0.80
-1.15

132.97
128.40
133.19

0.94
0.10
0.30

293.0*
288.9
282.9

0.83
-0.37
-0.45

-0.52
0.17
0.23

134.43
131.73
132.28

146.2

74.2

105,9

54.1

8.8

July
August
September . . .

-1.19
-1.34
-2.37

286.6
289.5
283.0

-0.25
-0.41
-1.91

-0.18
-0.36
-0.61

129.13
129.63
118.27

150.8

75.4

110.7

55.6

8.8

October
November . .
December . .

-1.08
-2.18
-0.72

277.2
270.5
264.2

-1.14
-1.88
-1.05

-1.00
-1.40
-1.50

119.80
122.92
123.79

144.9

71.2

112.3

55.5

8.1

January
February
March

0.87
-1.40
-0.22

263.4
261.0
254.5

0.35
-0.97
-0.89

-1.11
-0.71
-0.53

117.28
114.50
110.84

115.0

56.3

100.4

49.2

6.7

April
May
June

-0.76
0.11
0.29

247.4
245
232,

-1.21
-0.18
-1.45

-0.76
-0.89
-0.85

116.31
116.35
109.70

116.3

56.2

100.0

48.5

6.7

July
August
September . . ,

-0.33
-2.46
-0.26

237.0
236.2
239.0

0.41
-1.38
0.19

-0.68
-0.61
-0.53

109.38
109.65
122.43

119,4

57.1

105.3

50.4

6.9

October
November . . .
December . . .

-0.23
-0.57
r0.34

235.5
230.4
227.4

-0.51
-0.93

132.66
138.10
139.37

117.9

56.1

106.6

50.8

6.5

r-0.24

-0.41
-0.49
r-0.49

T2.61

232.1
241.3
248.8

rl.98
H>2.96
2.07

r-0.14
0.92
rl.95

144.27
146.80
151.88

pll2.5

p53.6

H>p57.0

p6.3

253.2
251.4

0.13

E>2.03

H>157.71
6
164.44

January
February
March
April
May
June

1982

1983
January
February
March

B>3.43
2.21
-0.66

April
May
June

S

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
beginning with June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permisa
sion from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
The following series reached high values before 1981: Series 23 (304.7) in November 1980,
3
series 18 (84.2) in III Q 1980, and series 22 (9.9) in IV Q 1980.
See footnote 1 on page 68.
*IVA, inventory valuation adjustment;
CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
'Average for May 2 through 24.
'Average for May 4, 11, 18, and 25.

MAY 1983



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
incomel
(Percent)

L, L, L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

U, L, L

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

L,L,L

L, L, L

L, L, L

15. Profits (after 26. Ratio, price
Net cash flow, corporate
taxes) per dollar to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
of sales, all
business sector 34. Current
manufacturing
35. Constant
dollars
corporations
(1972) dollars

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
68. Labor cost
unit labor cost, per unit of real
private business gross domestic
sector
product, nonfinancial
corporations

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg. Lg. Lg

62. Index of labor cost per
unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data

Actual data
as a percent
of trend

64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

98.1

(H>279.0

H>141.2

139.0

1.267

202.6
203.6
204.4

100.6
100.4
100.1

74.9

97.9

(Cents)

267.7

132.0

141.5

1.289

206.1
207.4
208.9

100.2
100.1
100.1

75.3

(1977 = 100)

(1977=100)

(Dollars)

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1981
January .
February
March . .

6.0

April .
May .
June .

6.0

July
August . . .
September .

6.1

4.8

.1

276.5

133.9

144.2

1.315

208.9
209.9
212.6

99.4
99.1
99.7

74.9

October..
November
December

5.9

4.4

97.7

277.5

131.8

147.9

1.349

216.6
219.9
222.5

100.8
101.7
102.2

75.4

January . . .
February . .
March

5.7

3.9

96.7

254.9

120.6

150.9

1.376

227.9
226.0
225.8

£j>103.9
102.4
101.6

E>76,4

April .
May .
June .

5.6

3.7

96.5

263.5

123.3

152.9

1.388

228.0
230.7
231.3

101.9
102.4
102.0

76.3

July
August . .
September

6.0

3.5

96.8

272.6

128.6

153.8

1.392

230.2
229.6
229.7

100.9
100.0
99.4

76.1

October. .
November
December

5.8

2.8

96.7

111 A

130.7

154.9

1.409

231.0
|H>231.7
230.9

99.3
98.9
98.0

76.0

B>p6.8

(NA)

r97.5

P278.8

P129.9

0>155.*8

r230.7
r230.4
r228.9

r97.2
r96.5
r95.2

p75.6

P227.1

p93.8

4.9

1982

1983
January
February . . .
March
April .
May .
June .
July
August
September . . .
October. .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
1

IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

70




MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Contlnued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| 0 |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT

L, L, L

85. Change in
money supply
(Ml)

Lt C, U

102. Change
in money
supply (M2)

(Percent)

(Percent)

L,L,L

L,L, L

104. Change in total liquid assets
Smoothed
data1

Monthly
data

(Percent)

Credit Flows

Velocity of Money

Money

(Percent)

L, L, L

105. Money
supply (Ml)
in 1972
dollars

106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

c,c,c
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml)

C,Lg,C

L, L, L

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

1981
January
February
March

0.63
0.77
1.10

0.49
0.85
1.20

1.07
1.05
0.66

0.89
0.96
0.95

199.9
199.9
200.5

785.9
786.5
789.7

6.815

1.409
1.410
1.407

55.82
60.60
46.93

April
May
June .

1.22
0.00
0.05

0.87
0.43
0.71

0.46
1.00
1.19

0.82
0.72
0.80

202.1
200.4
198.9

793.2
789.8
789.3

6.752

1.402
1.405
1.406

54.62
42.05
47.48

July .
August
September

0.49
0.44
-0.09

0.86
1.23
0.59

0.97
H>1.36
0.94

0.97
1.11
B>1.13

197.6
196.8
194.7

787.1
790.1
786.7

1)6.883

H>1.416
1.412
1.415

60.85
34.20
26.76

October
November
December

-0.05
0.60
1.08

0.69
0.95
0.80

0.93
1.02
0.64

1.08
1.02
0.91

193.9
194.2
195.5

789.3
793.1
796.4

6.879

1.410
1.403
1.391

22.79
21.66
5.14

January
February
March

1.63
0.04
0.13

0.85
0.31
0.72

0.85
0.90
0.92

0.85
0.82
0.84

198.1
198.1
198.4

800.9
802.8
808.9

6.685

1.381
1.384
1.377

22.08
16.39
3.54

April
May
June

0.16
0.69
0.22

0.34
0.84
0.75

0.65
1.00
1.08

0 86
0.84
0.88

198.2
197.6
195.9

809.7
808.2
805.6

6.742

1.382
1.381
1.376

8.74
3.22
-9.77

July
August
September

0.22
0.86
1.07

0.88
1.21
0.70

1.13
0.91
0.60

0.99
1.06
0.96

195.2
196.3
198.2

807.9
815.2
820.1

6.734

1.376
1.362
1.355

-5.96
-7.22
-10.42

October
November . .
December . . : . . . .

1.19
1.13
0.89

0.66
0.79
0.75

r0.89
rO.56
p0.51

0.84
r0.74
pO.67

199.7
201.9
204.3

822.1
828.6
837.1

6.563

1.352
1.351
1.345

-48.32
-9.05
r-44.21

January
February
March

0.82
i>1.87
rl.32

Dr2.48
r2.00
rO.93

(NA)

(NA)

205.6
209.9
H>r212.4

856.4
r875.3
[EM82.2

r6.467

rl.316
rl.291
r1.286

rl5.20
r35.06
p-52.66

April .
May
June

p-0.26
"1.12

pO.26

p210.6

p879.5

pi.293

(NA)

1982

1983

July
'. . .
August . . . .
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 3 1 , and 32.
1
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
a
Series 33 reached its high value (82.61) in October 1980.
3
Average for weeks ended May 4 and 11.

RCII MAY 1983



71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Credit Flows—Continued

L, L, L

112. Net change
in business
loans
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L.L.L

L, L,L

113. Net
change in
consumer installment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

111. Change
in credit outstandingbusiness and
consumer
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
percent)

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Credit Difficulties

L, L, L

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L.L.L

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures 1 ©

(Mil. dol.)

Bank Reserves

L, L, L

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans

(Percent)

L, U, U

93. Free
reserves

(Mil. dol.)

Interest Rates

L, Lg, U

94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve ©

(Mil. dol.)

L. Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate ©

(Percent)

C, Lg, Lg

114. Treasury
bill rate ®

(Percent)

1981
17.57
4.37
-20.65

19.54
E>35.65
23.12

7.9
7.9
3.2

46.48

Dn.2

51.19

25.55
24.02
12.78

July
August
September . . .

52.52
57.32
59.27

19.28
21.67
33.73

8.3
9.1

October
November . . .
December . . .

25.18
42.13
32.62

9.41
-4.36
-2.76

February
March

65.18
62.46
23.78

April
May
June

320,608

341.36
789.20
485.34

2.42
2.51
2.53

-1,028
-1,023
-719

1,386
1,301
994

19.08
15.93
14.70

14.72
14.90
13.48

1)392,040

536.88
428.20
408.54

40
40
30

-1,136
[H)-1,968
-1,700

1,338
0)2,220
2,039

15.72
18.52
0)19.10

13.63
H>16.30
14.56

318,116

619.46
450.41
752.34

22
35
28

-1,335
-1,122
-1,035

1,679
1,417
1,451

19.04
17.82
15.87

14.70
15.61
14.95

3.0
3.6
3.1

247,540

897.94
618.76
626.74

37
42
2.37

-871
-348
-330

1,149
695
642

15.08
13.31
12.37

13.87
11.27
10.93

21.42
8.66
2.62

8.4
7.9
2.8

645.14
255,632

2.48
2.39
2.24

-1,101
-1,414
-1,254

1,526
1,713
1,611

13.22
14.78
14.68

12.41
13.78
12.49

63.64
45.66
31.63

19.62
18.10
20.90

6.5
4.8
3.2

310,108
(H>2.16

-1,307
-745
-895

1,581
1,105
1,205

14.94
14.45
14.15

12.82
12.15
12.11

July
August
September . . .

7.98
4.72
21.98

4.70
0.80
10.04

-1.9
1.4
1.2

253,148

-378
-199
-592

669
510
976

12.59
10.12
10.31

11.91
9.01
8.20

October
November . . .
December . . .

2.71
-63.78
r-64.91

4.96
15.65
29.03

-4.1
-5.6
r-8.1

p253,064

-51
-177
-197

455
579
697

9.71
9.20
8.95

7.75
8.04
8.01

r32.20
r-5.70
rlO.81

r32.70
r8.82
30.98

r5.7
rl.4
r-1.4

(NA)

46
-132
r-413

500
557
r850

8.68
8.51
8.77

7.81
8.13
8.30

p-32.63

(NA)

pO.l

p-651
2
-434

p995
2
904

January
February
March
April
May
June

|H>67.80

10.0

8.4

1982
(NA)

2.18

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

2

8.80
8.62

3

8.25
8.18

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,32,33, and 34.
x

Series 14 reached its high value (239.34) in November 1980.
Average for weeks ended May 4, 11, and 18.
'Average for weeks ended May 5, 12, 19, and 26.

2

72




MAY 1983

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Interest Rates-Continued

Outstanding Debt

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

116. Corporate
bond yields ®

115. Treasury
bond yields ©

117. Municipal
bond yields ®

118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages ®

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business loans

(Percent)

(Percent)

Year
and
month
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by

Lg, Lg, Lg

66. Consumer
installment
credit

banks ©

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
to personal
income

(Percent)

1981
January
February
March

14.01
14.60
14.49

11.65
12.23
12.15

9.68
10.10
10.16

14.23
14.79
15.04

19.91

20.16
19.43
18.05

309,765
312,736
314,663

211,868
212,232
210,511

88,611
87,881
86,381

13.42
13.42
13.38

April
May
June

15.00
15.68
14.97

12.62
12.96
12.39

10.62
10.78
10.67

15.91
16.33
16.31

19.99

17.15
19.61
20.03

316,792
318,794
319,859

214,384
220,034
224,300

87,042
89,119
90,626

13.40
13.40
13.34

July
August
September . . .

15.67
16.34
E>16.97

13.05
13.61
.14

11.14
12.26
12.92

16.76
17.96
@>18.55

20.39
H>20.50
20.08

321,466
323,272
326,083

228,677
233,454
238,393

91,949
93,794
96,010

13.19
13.14
13.16

October
November . . .
December . . .

16.96
15.53
15.55

14.13
12.68
12.88

12.83
11.89
12.91

17.43
15.98
16.43

17.23

18.45
16.84
15.75

326,867
326,504
326,274

240,491
244,002
246,720

96,738
98,348
99,324

13.14
13.07
13.06

January
February
March

16.34
16.35
15.72

13.73
13.63
12.98

H>13.28
12.97
12,82

17.38
17.10
16.41

17.13

15.75
16.56
16.50

328,059
328,781
328,999

252,152
257,357
259,339

100,659
102,655
103,653

13.13
13.08
13.06

April
May
June

15.62
15.37
15.96

12.84
12.67
13.32

12.59
11.95
12.45

16.31
16.19
16.73

17.11

16.50
16.50
16.50

330,634
332,142
333,884

264,642
268,447
271,083

105,772
107,079
107,872

13.04
12.99
13.01

July
August
September . . .

15.75
14.64
13.78

12.97
12.15
11.48

12.28
11.23
10.66

16.29
14.61
14.03

13.27

16.26
14.39
13.50

334,276
334,343
335,180

271,748
272,141
273,973

107,751
107,950
[H>109,022

12.91
12.90
12.91

October
November . . .
December . . .

12.63
11.89
12.15

10.51
10.18
10.33

9.69
10.06
9.96

12.99
12.82
12.80

11.26

12.52
11.85
11.50

335,593
336,897
339,316

B>274,199
268,884
r263,475

108,939
106,658
rlO4,347

12.86
12.82
12.88

January
February
March

12.04
12.11
11.81

10.37
10.60
10.34

9.50
9.58
9.20

12.87
12.65
12.68

10.20

11.16
10.98
10.50

r342,041
r342,776
1)345,358

r266,158
r265,683
r266,584

rl05,660
rlO5,O55
rlO5,662

rl2.95
rl2.96
pl2.99

April
May
June

11.58

10.19

9.05
8.98

12.50

10.50
10.50

(NA)

p263,865

pl04,460

(NA)

1982

1983

2

3

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
x

Average for weeks ended May 6, 13, and 20.
Average for weeks ended May 5, 12, and 19.
Average for May 1 through 25.

2

3

MAY 1983



73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

0 1

Year
and
month

950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106,
111)

1-month
span

6-month
span

DIFFUSION INDEXES

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77, 91,
95,101,109)

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)

6-month
span

1-month
span

16.7

90.0

95.0

7.5

87.5
77.5

9-month
span

962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th x
(51 areas)

963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(186 industries)

9-month
span

1-month
span

86.3
39.2
31.4

76.5
81.4
70.6

56.7
48.7
51.1

64.8
65.9
67.2

1-month
span

6-month
span

1981
33.3
58.3

75.0
54.2
58.3

100.0
87.5
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

8.3
25.0
41.7

66.7
33.3

100.0
41.7
25.0

45.8
58.3
33.3

50.0
50.0
100.0

75.0

66.7
50.0
66.7

72.5

50.0

83.3
66.7
41.7

77.5
22.5

60.0
17.5
5.0

64.7
78.4
17.6

19.6
19.6
5.9

68.3
65.3
54.0

67.7
67.2
67.5

July
August
September

33.3
41.7

8.3

8.3
16.7
8.3

75.0
25.0
37.5

50.0
25.0
12.5

66.7
50.0
83.3

83.3
66.7
66.7

35.0
35.0
15.0

15.0
12.5
5.0

68.6
58.8
9.8

17.6
9.8
27.5

59.9
50.3
50.3

51.3
39.0
33.9

October
November
December

25.0
50.0
29.2

8.3
8.3
25.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

75.0
66.7
75.0

66.7
66.7
50.0

62.5
20.0
30.0

7.5
5.0
5.0

60.8
49.0
22.5

11.8
5.9
7.8

34:7
28.2
31.2

30.1
27.7
24.2

January
February
March

45.8
58.3
33.3

41.7
41.7
54.2

0.0
87.5
37.5

0.0
50.0
50.0

75.0
33.3
33.3

41.7
33.3
33.3

5.0
95.0
12.5

12.5
42.5
30.0

96.1
24.5
5.9

11.8
31.4
43.1

32.5
42.5
35.8

21.8
27.4

April
May
June

66.7
37.5
41.7

66.7
50.0
45.8

25.0
75.0

30.0
40.0
77.5

62.7
68.6
19.6

15.7
23.5
9.8

40.9
51.1
32.0

29.8
28.8
30.1

July
August
September . . . .

r58.3
r66.7
r62.5

50.0
50.0
62.5

25.0

67.6
9.8
17.6

17.6
72.5
82.4

43.5
37.6
43.0

24.2
21.0
24.7

October
November
December

62.5
58.3
r66.7

r83.3
r87.5
83.3

88.2
60.8
76.5

r71.6
p66.7
(NA)

26.1
34.9
39.0

28.2
r28.0
33.3

p49.7

8.3

January
February
March
April
May
June

75.0

60.0

1982

50.0
0.0
0.0

12.5
0.0

50.0
75.0

33.3
33.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
41.7

33.3
16.7
16.7

45.0
25.0
35.0

32.5
47.5
82.5

25.0
r50.0
75.0

0.0

58.3
41.7
58.3

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0

42.5
75.0
72.5

16.7
0.0
16.7

16.7
16.7
16.7

52.5
67.5
52.5

45.0
r82.5
p95.0

100.0

33.3
50.0
33.3

"0.0

92.5
r5.0
rlOO.O

68.6
r57.8
p35.3

54.8
r39.2
r60.5

p95.0

(NA)

27.4

p72.6

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

75.0
r66.7
66.7
2

81.8

2

100.0
37.5
100.0

100.0

3

100.0

9

*37.5

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Figures are the percent of components declining.
"Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
'Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
*Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74



MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (34 industries)

Year
and
month

1-month
span
1981

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)

1-quarter
span

4-Q moving
average

966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)

1-month

6-month
span

967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials ®
(13 industrial materials)

1-month
span

9-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing2 ®
(about 600 companies)

968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks * ®

1-month
span

9-month
span

(4-quarter span)

Revised3 Revised3

49

83.3
62.5
45.8

79.2
70.8
58.3

30.8
30.8
65.4

38.5
38.5
46.2

66.0
42.5
85.8

79.2
67.3
59.6

43

56.2
62.5
45.8

54.2
58.3
45.8

69,
26.
38,

46.2
46.2
53.8

81.1
30.2
67.3

44,
42,

31.3
20.8
16.7

61.
61.
42,

61.5
42.3
23.1

19.2
40.4
0.0

46,
32,

41

87.5
52.1
12.5
20.8
8.3
20.8

8.3
8.3
10.4

38.5
26.9
46.2

23.1
23.1
15.4

58.7
65.4
67.3

14.4
10.6
34.6

48

34

0.0

12.
33.

42.3
34.6
38.5

15.4
30.8
26.9

10.6
34.6
28.8

34.6
42.3
38.5

50

39

33.3
75.0
31.3

41.7
37.5
33.3

30.8
34.6
23.1

26.9
19.2
19.2

88.5
54.8
11.5

18.0
56.0
79.6

53

52

20.8
41,
54.
60,
52,
41,

33.3
25.0
37.5

61.5
53.8
61.5

26.9
15.4
23.1

52,
26,

(NA)

100.0

87.8
87.8
89.8

80

25.0
33.3
41.7

r45.8
r60.4
r70.8

46.2
30.8
46.2

50.0
57.7
65.4

98.0
85.7
51.0

89.8
98.0
100.0

p53

75.0
r58.3
r91.7

p83.3

61.5
76.9
57.7

"80.8

63.3
59.2
73.5

January
February
March

41.2
50.0
50.0

82.4
79.4
64.7

56

April
May

55.9

53

June

64.7
52.9
52.9

41.
32.

July
August
September . . .

35.3
35.3
47.1

32.
26.
14.

33

October
November . . .
December . . .

36.8
50.0
35.3

29.
20.

30

January
February
March

38.2
47.1
45.6

23.5
26.5
33.8

48

April
May
June

47.1
61.8
35.3

26.5
23.5
41.2

27

July
August
September . . .

50.0
38.2
50.0

23.5
32.4
52.9

53

October
November . . .
December . . .

38.2
70.6
41.2

44.1
50.0
p67.6

14.7

60

59.6
59

49

9.6

1982

p53

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

70.6
52.9
55.9
p55.9

p91.7

65.4
"46.2

81.6

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
*Based on 53 industries through May 1981, on 52 industries through August 1982, on 50 industries in September 1982, and on 49 industries
thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
"Based on average for May 3, 10, 17, and 24.

MAY 1983



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

P I

Year
and
quarter

b. Later
anticipations

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' ®

c. Early
anticipations

Anticipated

Actual

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade' ®

Actual

971. New orders, manufacturing ' ®

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (22 industries)
a. Actual
expenditures

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

77.3
59.1
50.0
54.5

54.5
45.5
36.4
40.9

81.8
59.1
81.8
77.3

74
63
60
60

66
75
57
62

62
54
57
56

66
73
59
61

73
62
68
66

72
80
63
67

72.7
63.6
72.7
36.4

72.7
40.9
54.5
59.1

70.5
68.2
77.3
68.2

68
70
62
62

74
74
76
76

60
66
60
60

70
69
74
72

70
74
71
68

78
76
80
80

54.5
34.1
27.3
22.7

59.1
22.7
27.3
50.0

59.1
59.1
65.9
59.1

52
50
52
56

60
68
64
60

53
52
52
54

61
66
66
60

63
58
57
60

65
70
72
65

(NA)

59.1

45.5
40.9

(NA)

66
77

(NA)

64
73

(NA)

68
78

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

Q

Year
and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade' ®

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade' ®

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
976. Selling prices, manufacturing ' ®

977. Selling prices, wholesale

978. Selling prices, retail
trade' ®

Actual

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

trade1®

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

58
54
53
51

54
56
48
50

67
61
64
60

62
70
53
56

90
88
90
90

87
90
83
86

92
90
92
90

90
92
87
88

92
91
94
90

90
93
84
90

51
53
52
52

56
54
56
55

62
64
62
63

63
61
66
64

88
86
84
82

88
90
89
84

90
88
84
82

90
89
89
84

94
90
86
86

90
90
92
87

48

50
51
51
48

58
52
52
52

54
56
56
50

72
68
63
60

80
76
68
66

72
67
68
61

82
78
72
68

78
75
74
68

82
81
76
72

50
56

(NA)

52
58

(NA)

65
66

(NA)

68
64

(NA)

69
67

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

46
46
46

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(NA)

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising.' (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun S
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76




MAY 1983

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components

1983

1982
October

September

November

January

December

February

AprilF

March'

961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries

38.8

38.8

38.9

38.9

39.8

39.1

39.6

40.1

Percent rising of 20 components .

(35)

(52)

(68)

(52)

(92)

(5)

(100)

(95)

Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

38.5
37.4

38.0
37.5

38.5
37.6

38.5
37.7

40.8
38.8

39.4
37.7

39.6
38.3

40.0
39.4

Stone, clay, and glass products.
Primary metal industries

40.2
37.8

40.2
38.0

40.2
38.2

40.0
38.9

41.6
38.9

r40.3
38.9

40.7
39.4

41.0
39.8

Fabricated metal products ...
Machinery, except electrical ..

38.8
39.0

38.9
39.2

39.0
39.2

39.1
39.3

39.8
39.7

r39.5
r39.4

39.9
39.8

40,
40,

Electric and electronic equipment.
Transportation equipment

38.8
39.8

39.0
40.1

39.2
40.8

39.3
39.9

39,
41,

39.8
41.9

40,
42,

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

39.8
38.3

39.4
38.6

39.2
38.6

39.6
38.4

40.6
39.4

r39.6
37.9

40.1
38.8

40.4
39.3

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers ....

39.4
39.7

39.7
39.0

39.4
38.0

39.2
37.9

39.4
36.5

r39.1
r34.1

39.2
36.5

39.4
38.1

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

38.1
35.2

38.2
35.0

38.6
35.1

38.4
35.0

40.3
36.9

r38.9
r35.0

39.6
35.4

40.5
35.9

Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing ...

41.5
37.0

41.7
36.9

41.6
37.1

41.6
37.1

41.7
37.6

41.3
r37.1

42.0
37.4

42.4
37.7

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

41.2
44.0

40.8
43.3

40.6
43.9

40.9
44.4

41.1
44.6

41.0
44.6

41,
45,

41.3
44.2

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

39.6
35.7

39.0
35.2

39.3
35.9

39.6
35.8

40.2
36.7

r39.8
34.9

40.5
35.9

41.3
37.0

82,355

77,449

(71)

(53)

Durable goods industries:

Nondurable goods industries:

964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
72,348

Percent rising of 34 components .

70,735

(50)

All durable goods industries

(38)

+

71,067

+

(71)

76,180

+

(41)

+

79,951

+

(56)

81,851
(56)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

-

8,054
8,788

-

7,116
8,376

+
-

7,670
8,109

-

7,212
7,761

+
+

8,708
9,229

+
-

9,911
9,024

+

9,183
9,715

-

8,994
9,480

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery . . . . . . .

+
+

13,401
12,099

+
-

13,409
11,945

+

12,773
12,292

+

11,967
12,934

+
-

12,708
12,213

+

12,252
12,398

+
+

14,330
12,526

+
+

14,757
13,100

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+

14,444
15,562

+
-

14,804
15,085

+
-

15,150
15,073

+
-

21,399
14,907

+
+

23,105
16,392

-

17,708
16,156

+
+

17,953
16,244

+
+

19,039
16,481

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (•+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here.

MAY 1983



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
Diffusion index components

1983

1982
September

October

November

December

January

February

March

Aprilp

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1967 = 100)

137.3

135.7

134.9

(42)

(25)

Lumber and products.
Furniture and fixtures

119.9
155.7

Clay, glass, and stone products...
Primary metals

135.2

rl37.4 +

138.0

(33)

(42)

(75)

(58)

(92)

(92)

117.2
154.3

119.1
152.4

121.4
153.7

130.0
150.0

130.2
151.7

132.1
155.4

NA
NA

130.4
73.2

128.1
69.6

127.3
63.6

125.4
63.5

rl28.0
r73.1

131.8
77.0

132.7
80.7

83.9

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery...

112.3
144.9

107.6
140.4

107.0
139.6

107.3
139.2

107.6
138.0

110.2
135.7

112.2 +
138.7 +

115.3
142.2

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

167.0
105.3

165.4
100.8

165.5
100.2

165.5
103.7

169.5
rlO6.3

169.3
109.8

173.1 +
110.3 +

178.5
111.9

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures .

161.9
132.9

157.4
129.6

155.8
129.5

155.2
128.2

154.5
rl31.3

153.5
133.9

155.1
135.2 +

154.9
139.0

Foods
Tobacco products .

149.0
113.3

151.5
110.6

152.0
113.0

152.8
109.9

154.4
104.7

153.8
108.5

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Textile mill products
Apparel products....

126.1
(NA)

125.9
(NA)

123.1
(NA)

122.2
(NA)

125.8
(NA)

130.7
(NA)

132.0
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Paper and products ....
Printing and publishing .

154.3
144.3

155.0
142.0

154.5
141.7

151.1
142.8

158.8
rl41.3

155.6
144.0

155.7 +
145.4 +

157.4
147.7

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

196.4
122.6

194.1
123.8

192.8
120.0

195.9
118.7

rl97.6
rll3.5

200.0
111.8

201.6
116.1

(NA)
121.6

Rubber and plastics products.
Leather and products

262.0
60.9

256.3
59.5

250.2
57.7

249.7
56.0

256.2
59.5

262.1
61.7

269.0
62.0

(NA)
(NA)

Metal mining .
Coal

55.4
127.9

63.1
143.2

70.4
134.1

79.8
127.3

(NA)
127.4

121.0
106.3

119.1
108.5

120.3
111.9

r81.7
144.8
rl24.6
112.8

74.9
136.5

Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals ...

74.9 +
129.7 +
122.9 +
111.7 +

117.0
115.4

115.1
116.5

113.8
(NA)

All industrial production

Percent rising of 24 components

}

+

139.7 +

142.6

Durable manufactures:

(NA)

Nondurable manufactures:

Mining:

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

a

78




MAY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

Q

Diffusion index components

1982
September

October

1983
November

January

December

March

February

May1

April

A
96 I INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, R W INDUSTRIALS 2

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) ....

+

239.0

-

(62)

Percent rising of 13 components

235.5

-

(46)

230.4

-

227.4

+

(46)

(31)

232.1 +
(62)

241.3

+

(77)

248.8

+

253.2

-

(46)

(65)

(58)

251.4

Dollars

Copper scrap

.(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.481
1.060

+

0.482
1.063

+

0.485
1.069

+

0.510
1.124

+

0.552
1.217

+

0.591
1.303

-

0.587
1.294

+

0.608
1.340

+

0.626
1.380

Lead scrap

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.164
0.362

-

0.148
0.326

-

0.129
0.284

-

0.114
0.251

+

0.126
0.278

-

0.125
0.276

-

0.123
0.271

+

0.128
0.282

-

0.124
0.273

Steel scrap

(U.S. ton)..
(metric ton)..

+

60.000
66.138

o

60.000
66.138

o

60.000
66.138

o

60.000
66.138

+

61.250
67.516

+

72.750
80.192

+

85.000
93.696

-

80.500
88.735

-

68.750
75.783

Tin

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

5.820
12.831

-

5.715
12.599

-

5.524
12.178

+

5.528
12.187

-

5.518
12.165

+

5.948
13.113

+

6.180
13.624

+

6.300
13.889

-

6.208
13.686

Zinc

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

+

0.419
0.924

-

0.418
0.922

-

0.404
0.891

-

0.390
0.860

+

0.402
0.886

+

0.404
0.891

-

0.384
0.847

+

0.387
0.853

+

Burlap

(vard)
(meter)..

+

0.252
0.276

+

0.263
0.288

-

0.256
0.280

-

0.240
0.262

-

0.229
0.250

+

0.237
0.259

+

0.256
0.280

+

0.260
0.284

-

0.404
0.391
I
0.243
0.266

Cotton

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

-

0.588
1.296

+

0.595
1.312

-

0.589
1.299

+

0.610
1.345

+

0.622
1.371

+

0.633
1.396

+

0.681
1.501

-

0.677
1.493

+

0.688
1.517

Print cloth

(yard)
(meter)..

+

0.555
0.607

+

0.558
0.610

+

0.567
0.620

+

0.610
0.667

o

0.610
0.667

-

0.608
0.665

-

0.594
0.650

-

0.578
0.632

+

0.585
0.640

Wool tops

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

o

3.400
7.496

+

3.500
7.716

+

3.600
7.937

-

3.375
7.441

-

3.300
7.275

o

3.300
7.275

-

3.240
7.143

-

3.200
7.055

o

3.200
7.055

Hides

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

-

0.542
1.195

-

0.506
1.116

-

0.489
1.078

-

0.485
1.069

-

0.474
1.045

+

0.479
1.056

+

0.504
1.111

+

0.560
1.235

+

0.602
1.327

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

0

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

Rubber

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.448
0.988

-

0.425
0.937

-

0.419
0.924

+

0.421 +
0.928

0.440
0.970

+

0.484
1.067

+

0.560
1.235

+

0.584
1.287

-

0.569
1.254

Tallow

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

+

0.159
0.351

-

0.152
0.335

-

0.144
0.317

-

0.139
0.306

0.144" +
0.317

0.148
0.326

+

0.151 +
0.333

0.169
0.373

-

0.165
0.364

+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for May 3, 10, 17, and 24.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

MAY 1983



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Q |

Year
and
quarter

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

a. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars
a. Total

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980

2,575.9
2,573.4
2,643.7
2,739.4

-2.5
70.3
95.7

12.2
-0.4
11.4
15.3

1,494.9
1,457.8
1,463.8
1,479.4

5.6
- -37.1
6.0
15.6

1.5
-9.6
1.6
4.3

6,593
6,413
6,421
6,472

1,497.5
1,460.3
1,472.3
1,485.7

2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2

125.5
36.9
79.1
22.3

19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0

1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1

28.4
-5.6
8.2
-20.3

7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3

6,583
6,544
6,563
6,458

1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3

2,995.5
3,045.2
3,088.2
3,108.2

-7.7
49.7
43.0
20.0

-1.0
6.8
5.8
2.6

1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.1
1,477.2

-19.4
7.7
2.7
-3.9

-5.1
2.1
0.7
-1.1

6,360
6,380
6,375
6,342

1,486.1
1,482.7
1,477.8
1,497.5

r3,170.9

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r62.7

r8.3

rl,486.2

r9.0

r2.5

r6,365

rl,502.3

73.0

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

^ M
Year
and
quarter

Q

G P AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
N
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars

225. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

231. Total in 1972
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
i i 1972 dollars

227. Per capita in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

1,766.9
1,781.0
1,845.5
1,902.9

1,022.8
1,005.5
1,018.2
1,025.7

4,511
4,423
4,466
4,487

1,618.7
1,622.2
1,682.0
1,745.8

937.0
915.8
928.0
941.0

220.8
199.0
212.7
224.7

145.4
128.9
134.6
139.5

1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4

1,035.0
1,036.6
1,048.8
1,051.9

4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559

1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5

951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4

236.9
230.4
241.2
229.6

145.3
138.6
142.2
134.1

2,117.1
2,151.5
2,198.1
2,224.3

1,046.9
1,054.8
1,058.3
1,059.1

4,527
4,552
4,555
4,547

1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3
2,030.8

949.1
955.0
956.3
967.0

237.9
240.7
240.3
251.8

137.5
138.3
136.4
142.8

r2,247.2

rl,064.6

r4,559

r2,054.2

r973.1

r257.3

rl45.1

1981
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 .




MAY 1983

ttCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q

Year
and
quarter

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

i

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

I N G O S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
RS

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

241. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars

243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980
650.6
656.7
673.7
700.5

357.8
352.7
353.7
359.0

747.3
766.6
795.6
820.6

433.9
434.3
439.7
442.5

424.0
391.0
384.1
410.3

222.7
201.9
199.2
209.6

405.3
428.0

225.3
204.4
207.8
215.9

720.6
729.6
741.3
746.5

361.6
361.7
363.0
363.1

842.4
859.4
886.3
908.3

444.2
444.3
446.2
446.2

455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9

221.6
229.5
233.4
218.9

443.5
450.9
454.2
455.7

219.2
217.4
216.9
214.1

749.1
755.0
768.4
775.7

362.2
364.5
365.9
367.6

932.4
952.1
977.6
1,003.3

449.5
452.2
454.0
456.6

414.8
431.5
443.3
391.5

195.4
202.3
206.3
183.5

450.4
447.7
438.6
439.9

210.8
206.7
202.9
203.8

r776.8

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r369.7

rl.020.0

r458.4

r421.3

rl96.7

r458.6

r212.8

424.6
391.4

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
• •
H I
Voor

rear
anH
dflu

quarter

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q |
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-0.7
-0.4
-21.2
-17.7

-2.6
-2.5
-8.5
-6.2

519.2
536.0
538.5
559.8

284.7
286.9
283.4
283.2

189.6
198.8
193.3
207.0

106.4
109.1
105.5
104.8

329.6
337.2
345.2
352.8

178.3
177.8
177.9
178.4

12.2
24.6
31.8
13.2

2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8

578.1
583.2
600.2
626.3

286.8
283.9
286.4
291.3

217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5

107.9
107.0
110.7
116.0

361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7

179.0
176.9
175.7
175.3

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983

-35.6
-16.2
4.7
-48.3

-15.4
-4.4
3.4
-20.3

630.1
630.9
651.7
676.8

289.2
285.3
291.1
299.5

249.7
244.3
259.0
278.7

114.4
110.3
116.2
124.7

380.4
386.6
392.7
398.0

174.9
175.0
174.9
174.8

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r-37.3

r-16.1

r676.4

r292.9

r274.0

rll8.3

r402.5

rl74.6

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 42, and 43.

MAY 1983



81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q

255. Constant
(1972) dollars

250. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1972) dollars

253. Current
dollars

256. Constant
(1972) dollars

252. Current
dollars

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

220. National income in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

Year
and
quarter

• •
i l l

FOREIGN TRADE

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980
14.0
24.2
39.0
23.5

50.5
53.2
53.1
45.6

335.7
337.3
337.2
346.7

164.4
161.2
155.9
155.1

321.7
313.1
298.2
323.2

113.9
108.0
102.8
109.6

2,079.7
2,067.2
2,122.3
2,199.2

1,555.2
1,571.7
1,604.9
1,662.8

31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5

48.2
44.2
39.2
36.5

365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9

159.3
159.7
157.8
156.9

334.2
345.1
341.3
344.4

111.1
115.5
118.7
120.4

2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5

1,718.0
1,750.0
1,789.1
1,813.4

31.3
34.9
6.9
9.1

36.9
35.7
27.5
27.2

359.9
365.8
349.5
328.1

151.7
154.4
147.5
138.8

328.6
330.9
342.5
319.1

114.7
118.7
120.0
111.6

2,396.9
2,425.2
2,455.6
2,468.8

1,830.8
1,850.7
1,868.3
1,876.1

rl9.0

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r23.5

r331.9

138.5

r312.9

rllB.O

p2,523.9

r1,908.4

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .

Q
282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

290. Gross saving
(private and government)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

S VN
AIG

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980

....

122.7
108.9
115.5
118.0

30.8
32.7
33.8
34.2

195.3
172.2
177.8
181.2

175.7
181.6
190.4
203.0

410.8
395.8
404.4
414.0

322.3
330.2
335.5
340.3

97.9
108.6
113.1
105.3

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

123.4
123.8
127.5
124.1

34.4
34.0
33.6
33.6

200.3
185.1
193.1
183.9

217.6
231.6
244.0
249.5

461.4
482.4
490.0
476.3

362.7
367.0
379.1
389.1

105.9
122.0
134.4
158.6

116.4
117.3
118.4
128.9

33.9
34.2
34.6
33.9

157.1
155.4
166.2
164.6

258.7
267.5
268.1
265.3

428.8
441.5
422.4
363.3

380.3
384.6
394.2
397.7

139.1
144.3
152.0
133.4

KL28.4

35.3

pl85.4

r266.4

p412.3

p412.2

131.9

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1981

1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.

82



MAY 1983

IUJI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Contlnued

Q

Year
and
quarter

Q

SAVING—Continued

298. Government
surplus or deficit,

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

293. Personal
saving rate

Percent of gross national product

/namant nt die

total

(percent ot disposable personal
income)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
(Percent)

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

.251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-10.6
-44.2
-45.9
-32.2

5.5
6.1
6.1
5.5

62.8
63.0
63.6
63.7

12.1
11.7
11.6
11.6

4.4
3.5
3.7
4.0

-0.8
-0.6

0.5
0.9
1.5
0.9

-8.3
-7.6
-24.5
-72.5

5.4
6.1
6.5
7.5

62.8

11.5

62.7
62.7
62.7

11.8
11.8
12.0

4.0
3.8
3.4
3.2

0.4
0.8
1.1
0.4

1.1
0.8
0.9
0.8

-90.7
-87.5
-123.7
-167.7

6.6
6.7
6.9
6.0

64.1
64.0
64.3
65.3

11.9
11.6
11.1
10.9

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3

-1.2
-0.5
-1.6

1.0
1.1
0.2
0.3

p-131.7

5.9

r64.8

10.7

3.8

r-1.2

r0.6

0.0
0.0

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

0.2

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

Q |

Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued

F
'ercent of national income

Percent of GNP-Continued

goods and services
(Percent)

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services

64. Compensation of
employees

(Percent)

265. Federal Government purchases of

(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj>

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj»
(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdjl

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

5.3
5.4

1.5
1.6
1.6

9.4
8.3
8.4

5.4

1.6

8.2

8.4
8.8
9.0
9.2

74.9
75.3
74.9
75.4

5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2

1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4

8.7
8.0
8.1
7.6

10.0
10.2
10.4

12.7
12.7
12.7
12.8

76.4
76.3
76.1
76.0

4.9
4.8
4.8
5.2

1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4

6.6
6.4
6.8
6.7

10.8
11.0
10.9
10.7

12.7

p75.6

P5.1

pi.4

p7.3

pl0.6

7.4
7.7
7.3

12.8
13.1

74.8
76.0

13.1

7.6

12.9

75.6
75.6

7.6
7.5 *
7.7
8.3

12.6
12.6
12.4
12.5

8.3
8.0
8.4
9.0
8.6

5.9

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

9.5

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

RCII MAY 1983



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

RE
I
E l PC
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1972 = 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index

(1972 = 100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

MOVEMENTS

Consumer prices, food

Consumer prices, all items
320. Index (u)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

.322. Index

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans*

322c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1981
....

10.4

...
. .

6.9
4.7
3.8

266.8
269.0
271.3

0.4
0.9
0.8

10.0
10.1
10.6

272.3
272.4
272 9

0.1
0.0
02

4.8
4.9
45

274.4
276.5
279.3

1.1
0.8
1 0

10.5
9.6
8 8

275.3
276.9
278 0

0.9
0.6
04

4.8
4.8
48

7.4

279.9
280.7
281.5

0.4
0.5
0 4

6.9
5.3
31

278.7
278.9
279 4

0.3
0.1
02

4.4
4.2
35

4.4

282.5
283.4
283.1

0.3
0.1
0.0

2.9
4.0
5.5

281.3
282.6
282.8

0.7
0.5
0.1

3.3
4.7
5.6

3.8

284.3
287.1
pan c

0.2
1.0
11

6.1
6.6
6 9

283.3
285.4
287 1

0.2
0.7
n fi

4.5
3.1

292.2
292.8

0.6
0.3
01

7.2
5.1
? ?

287.6
286.9
007 c

0.2
-0.2
n0

294.1
293.6
292.4

0.4
0.0
-0 3

1.4
0.4
05

288.1
288.2
288 1

0.2
0.0
0 0

0.5
1.0

293.1
293.2
293.4

0.2
-0.2
0.1

0.8

288.3
288.3
290.1

0.1
0.0
0.6

2.2

0.6

291.3

0.4

205.7

197li
8.8

October
November
December

0.4
0.5
0.6

9.3

9.0
.

268.9
270.3
272.0

20i.*2

193." 2

July
August
September

9.9
9.6
9.1

197.1

6.8

April
May
June

0.7
0.8
0.8

8.6

10.9

196!6

260.5
263.2
265.1

295.5

January
February
March

209! 4

2OL6

1982

4.3

January
February
March

203 .*7

April
May
June

206! 6

July
August
September

208 .*5

October
November
December

210*4

2li!8
4.6

21318
5.9

5.0
216.*8

3.7

4.3
219 § 2

O A

3.4
2.0
n7

1

Q

1983

r5.7

January
February
March
April
May
June

213*.4

. . .

2.8
220.7

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
x
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.




MAY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND

PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

H M

Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 @

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

Producer prices, crude materials

Producer f rices, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month

®

spans' ®

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month

335c. Change
over 6-month

spansl

335. Index

spans* ®

®

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967 = 100)

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1981
January
February
March

284.8
287.6
290.3

1.4
1.0
0.9

11.5
11.0
10.2

291.5
295.7
299.6

1.7
1.4
1.3

15.8
15.6
13.3

330.0
332.6
330.6

0.9
0.8
-0.6

5.0
1.9
5.1

April
May
June

293.4
294.1
294.8

1.1
0.2
0.2

8.2
6.2
3.8

303.5
304.7
305.1

1.3
0.4
0.1

10.3
7.9
5.3

333.6
332.4
335.5

0.9
-0.4
0.9

3.7
0.2
-1.9

July
August
September

296.2
296.4
295.7

0.5
0.1
-0.2

1.8
1.0
0.7

306.2
307.2
307.4

0.4
0.3
0.1

3.7
3.0
3.2

336.1
333.0
327.4

0.2
-0.9
-1.7

-6.5

-8.4
-11.8

October
November
December

296.1
295.5
295.8

0.1
-0.2
0.1

1.4
1.5
1.6

309.0
309.3
310.0

0.5
0.1
0.2

3.7
2.9
2.4

322.5
318.1
315.1

-1.5
-1.4
-0.9

-9.2
-8.9
-6.3

298.3
298.6
298.0

0.8
0.1
-0.2

1.3
2.1
2.4

311.8
311.6
311.0

0.6
-0.1
-0.2

0.6
0.2
0.4

320.2
317.9
317.0

1.6
-0.7

-0.3

-1.1
5.3
6.9

April
May
June

298.0
298.6
299.3

0.0
0.2
0.2

1.4
1.1
0.9

309.9
309.6
310.6

-0.4
-0.1
0.3

0.6
1.0
1.1

320.8
326.4
325.8

1.2
1.7
-0.2

1.2
0.8
-1.0

July
August
September

300.4
300.2
299.3

0.4
-0.1
-0.3

1.2
1.1
0.9

312.8
313.2
312.7

0.7
0.1
-0.2

2.9
3.5
r3.0

322.1
319.1
315.4

-1.1
-0.9
-1.2

-4.0
-5.5
-5.6

October
November
December

299.8
300.3
r300.7

0.2
0.2
0.1

-0.3
0.7
0.8

314.3
315.0
r315.2

0.5
0.2
rO.l

0.8
0.8
0.4

314.3
317.3
r316.6

-0.3
1.0
r-0.2

-4.0
-0.9
2.6

January
February
March

300.0
301.2
300.5

-0.2
0.4

0.7

r-0.4
0.1
-0.3

-1.1

315.6
317.6

-0.3
0.6
0.6

6.2

-0.2

314.0
314.4
313.4

April
May
June

300.8

0.1

312.6

-0.3

323.9

1.4

1982
January
February
March

-

1983

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:

MAY 1983



1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q j

Producer prices, capital equipment

Producer prices, intermediate materials
Year
and
month

332. Index

(1967 = 100)

332c. Change
over 1-month
spansl

332c. Change
over 6-month
spansx

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

333. Index

(1967 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month"
spansl

(Percent)

Producer prices, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spansJ

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1967 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans !

(Percent)

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1981
January
February
March

297.0
298.3
301.1

1.2
0.4
0.9

11.4
10.6
9.4

253.5
256.1
258.1

1.1
1.0
0.8

10.1
10.5
11.0

262.2
264.8
267.7

0.9
1.0
1.1

10.7
9.7
9.6

April
May
June

304.2
305.6
307.0

1.0
0.5
0.5

7.3
7.7
5.9

260.2
262.3
264.1

0.8
0.8
0.7

9.8
8.8
8.1

270.3
270.8
272.1

1.0
0.2
0.5

8.2
6.2
4.9

July
August
September

307.6
309.6
309.9

0.2
0.7
0.1

4.1
3.4
2.6

265.6
267.1
268.4

0.6
0.6
0.5

7.9
7.8
7.3

272.8
272.9
274.2

0.3

0.0
0.5

3.7
3.8
3.6

October
November
December

310.3
310.7
311.0

0.1
0.1
0.1

2.8
0.9
-0.2

270.3
272.3
273.6

0.7
0.7
0.5

7.1
5.6
5.7

275.3
275.9
277.0

0.4
0.2
0.4

3.8
4.0
2.1

January
February
March

311.9
311.0
309.6

0.3
-0.3
-0.5

-1.2
-1.3

-0.8

274.9
274.5
276.0

0.5
-0.1
0.5

4.6
4.1
4.4

278.0
278.3
277.0

0.4
0.1
-0.5

1.5
0.7
2.2

April
May
June

308.4
308.7
309.7

-0.4
0.1
0.3

-1.0
-0.4
0.8

276.5
277.8
279.5

0.2
0.5
0.6

4.1
5.8
4.3

277.3
276.9
280.0

0.1
-0.1
1.1

2.5
3.1
4.4

310.3
310.3
310.8

0.2
0.0
0.2

1.6
2.0
1.4

280.5
282.3
281.9

0.4
0.6
-0.1

4.0
3.9
r3.5

281.5
282.6
283.0

0.5
0.4
0.1

5.2
6.8
r5.1

310.9
311.7
311.8

0.0
0.3
0.0

0.3
0.1
-1.6

282.0
283.1
r284.4

0.0
0.4
0.5

2.7
2.4
3.4

284.4
286.2
r287 0

0.5
0.6
rO 3

0.8
0.1
-0.7

January
February
March .

310.8
310.5
308.3

-0.3
-0.1
-0.7

-2.1

284.3
285.6
286.7

rO.O
0.5
0.4

2.8

282.6
282.8
282 0

r-1.5
0.1
-0.3

-1.7

April
May
June

307.6

-0.2

285.9

-0.3

282.0

0.0

1982

July
August .
September

. .

October
November
December
1983

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
x
Changes are centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

MAY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjusted l
Year
and
month
340. Index

(1977 = 100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

(1977 = 100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2
(Percent)

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1981
January
February . . . .
March

133.7
134.8
135.7

0.8
0.8
0.6

April
May
June

136.6
137.6
138.4

July
August
September . . .
October
November . ..
December . . .

9.1
8.6
8.9

92.9
92.9
92.9

0.2
0.1
0.0

-0.6
-0.7
0.2

rl39.3

0.7
0.8
0.6

0.1
-0.1
-0.1

-1.5
-1.1
-1.8

rl41.6

8.7

93.0
92.9
92.8

139,
140.
141.4

0.5
1.1
0.6

8.1
8.0
7.6

92
92
92

-0.7
0.3
-0.4

2.0
1.1
-1 0

rl44.8

142.0
143.0
143.5

0.4
0.7
0.3

8.6
6.4
5.7

92
92
92.3

0.0
0.4
-0.1

2.0
1.5
3.0

rl47.4

January
February
March

144.9
145.0
145.4

1.0
0.1
0.3

6.3
6.6
6.6

93.1
93.1
93.5

0.8
0.0
0.4

3.7
2.7
1.3

rl50.3

April
May
June

146.3
147,
148,

0.6
0.9
0.3

5.7
6.8
6.5

93.7
93.6
92.9

0.3
-0.1
-0.7

-0.5
0.2
-0.6

rl52.5

July
August
September . . .

148.9
149,
150,

0.5
0.6
0.1

6.2
4.9
5.4

92.8
93.
93,

-0.1
0.3
0.0

-1.2
-0.3
2.9

rl54.9

October
November . . .
December . . .

150.8
151.2
152.1

0.5
0.2
0.6

5.3
r4.7
r4.4

93.
93.
94.3

0.0
0.4
0.8

4.2
r4.7
3.9

rl57,0

January
February
March

152.8
rl53.4
153.4

0.5
0.3
rO.O

p4.1

94.8
r95.3
95.0

0.5
r0.6
r-0.4

p3.4

April
May
June

P153.9

p0.3

p94.8

p-0.2

11.9
r9.4

r7.0

8.9
r9.2

7.9
r7.5

7.6

1982

7.9
7.0
r5.9

65
.
r6.5

6.0
5.5

1983
r6.0
pl59.3

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

ItCII MAY

1983




87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month

348. First year
average changes

Real compensation

346. Index

(1977 = 100)

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ®

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, private
business sector

370. Index

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector

(1977 = 100)

1981
January
February
March

r96.0

April
May
June

r95.7

July
August . . ,
September .

r95.1

October. .
November
December

r95.2

7.7

1.2

7.2

r-1.3

11.6

10.5

8.1

11.0

100.1

-0.6

100.0

-0.3

99.1

0.3

3.3

1.7

99.5

p2.5

100.4

1.2
101.0
Q
2 .O

5.8

r0.8

100.4

1.0

100.7

r0.3
r0.3

2.2
0.0

10.8

-0.6
r-2.5

5.7
100.7

-1.3

100.3

1982
1.9

4.8

January
February
March

r96.3

April
May
June

r96.4

July
August
September . . ,

r96.1

October
November . . .
December . . .

1.2

r97.0

1.1
2.6

r0.6

2.1

1.9

r-1.2

3.5

-0.8
100.1
1.3
100.4

6.2

4.7

2.3

3.7
101.3

3.3

4.8

2.6
102.0

100.4

1983
January . . .
February . .
March

r6.4
98.5

p-1.8

pi.4
plO2.6

P2.2

plO1.6

April
May
June
July
August . . .
September .
October . . ,
November

December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1

Changes are centered within the spans:
on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed

MAY 1983

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

D

| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

442. Employed

Labor force participation rates

Number unemployed

448. Number employed
part-time
for economic
reasons

451. Males
20 years
and over

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

56.6
56.5
56.3

8,048
8,032
7,967

3,479
3,500
3,439

2,809
2,766
2,765

1,760
1,766
1,763

6,620
6,602
6,541

4,467
4,182
4,222

37. Total

444. Males
20 years
and over

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

447. Fulltime
workers

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

108,012
108,175
108,471

99,964
100,143
100,504

79.1
79.1

79.2

51.8
51.9
52.0

April
May
June

108,866
109,101
108,440

101,006
100,968
100,393

79.3
79.4
78.9

52.2
52.4
52.2

56.9
56.2
54.4

7,860
8,133
8,047

3,353
3,540
3,492

2,760
2,846
2,830

1,747
1,747
1,725

6,429
6,617
6,581

4,149
4,242
4,088

July
August
September

108,602
108,762
108,375

100,748
100,709
100,104

78.9
78.9
78.7

52.2

52/1
51.7

54.5
55.2
54.9

7,854
8,053
8,271

3,343
3,513
3,559

2,867
2,849
2,953

1,644
1,691
1,759

6,428
6,473
6,762

4,432
4,448
4,612

October
November
December

109,028
109,254
109,066

100,355
100,229
99,677

78.7
78.7
78.8

52.3
52.4
52.2

54.9
55.0
53.9

8,673
9,025
9,389

3,815
4,026
4,367

3,043
3,105
3,174

1,815
1,894
1,848

7,137
7,442
7,990

4,948
5,005
5,325

January
February
March

109,034
109,364
109,478

99,688
99,695
99,597

78.6
78.7
78.6

52.2
52.3
52.5

54.2
54.5
53.8

9,346
9,669
9,881

4,362
4,451
4,607

3,109
3,286
3,402

1,875
1,932
1,872

7,822
8,000
8,346

5,066
5,489
5,611

April
May . . .
June

109,740
110,378
110,147

99,484
99,994
99,681

78.7
78.9
78.8

52.5
52.8
52.9

54.2
55.2
53.0

10,256
10,384
10,466

4,770
4,818
5,016

3,528
3,568
3,565

1,958
1,998
1,885

8,575
8,689
8,878

5,750
5,731
5,561

July
August
September

110,416
110,614
110,858

99,588
99,683
99,543

78.8
78.7
79.0

53.0
53.0
52.9

53.2
54.2
54.3

10,828
10,931
11,315

5,150
5,232
5,578

3,672
3,671
3,710

2,006
2,028
2,027

9,036
9,209
9,622

5,577
5,820
6,495

October
November
December

110,752
111,042
111,129

99,176
99,136
99,093

78.9
78.9
78.7

52.8
52.9
53.1

54.1
54.4
53.9

11,576
11,906
12,036

5,714
5,865
5,909

3,824
3,989
4,071

2,038
2,052
2,056

9,942
10,127
10,285

6,403
6,411
6,425

January
February
March

110,548
110,553
110,484

99,103
99,063
99,103

78.1
78.2
78.1

52.9
52.9
52.8

53.5
52.7
52.8

11,446
11,490
11,381

5,597
5,749
5,581

3,963
3,925
3,889

1,886
1,815
1,911

9,810
9,872
9,751

6,845
6,481
6,202

April
May
June

110,786

99,458

78.3

52.8

52.6

11,328

5,702

3,729

1,897

9,702

6,082

(Thous.)

1981
January
February
March

..

1982

1 QfiQ

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.

KCII

MAY 1983



OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

0 1

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

DEFENSE INDICATORS

I\dvance measures of defense activity

State and local governments'

Federal Government

Year
and
month

Q |

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

525. Defense
Department
military prime
contract
awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

548. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)
Revised 2

1981
January
February
March

.35:7

620! 6

659.7

3ii3

4l6!6

378.' 6

14,808
15,741
15,560

7,155
7,514
7,590

82,087
83,608
84 883

4,480
5,060
3,785

April
May
June

-40.5

627!6

667!5

32!9

415.2

382! 2

15,210
15,699
15,156

8,505
7,967
7,041

84,994
85,165
86,126

4,041
5,170
5,057

July
August
September

-58!6

640! 2

698! 2

33:5

420.3

386 .*9

16,836
17,374
16 584

8,845
9,504
9 325

87,968
89,857
91 896

5,317
5,440
5 435

October
November
December

-ioi.*7

625.'7

727:4

29.'1

42K5

392! 4

12,892
15,674
19 805

4,466
9,817
9 049

91,354
92,575
93 827

4,711
5,269
C OAA

1982
January
February
March

609 .*9
•

"

!

:

728 .*3

424! 2

396 .'5

19,361
20,608
18,869

9,756
13,761
9,870

98,818
102,677
105,418

7,151
6,922
6,688

434! 3

27.7

402 .'2

20,793
17,786
17,503

10,518
9,657
14,296

108,428
108,841
109,654

6,204
5,013
5,994

440 .'5

408! 2

17,669
16,448
18,387

8,610
8,928
10,296

110,885
110,787
111,857

5,195
5,656
3,638

!

April
May
June

-11916

617!6

736.' 6

July
August
September

-15616

613.7

769! 7

October
November
December

-204.2

615!6

819*.2

450!6

413!5

16,476
18,599
24,396

5,423
10,209
17,298

111,866
113,647
119,788

5,621
5,663
11,207

p-17^9

p629.*9

r803.*8

p46CL4

r418!2

21,340
19,502
p20,444

16,908
13,042
p7,351

122,628
123,803
125,570

9,568
5,319
6,569

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p6,321

32! 3

1983
January
February
March . .
April
May . . . .
June . . .
July
August .
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
x
Based on national income and product accounts.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

90




MAY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Q

DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Output of
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

580. Defense
Department
net outlays

(1967 = 100)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Revised

1981

1

Revised

1

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment in defense products
industries

(Mil.dol.)

(Thous.)

Revised

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty (u)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment ®

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services

565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

1

100.9
100.5
100.7

11,113
11,318
11,547

67,999
69,269
69,109

12,639
12,932
12,619

3,613
3,790
3,945

1,391
1,388
1,390

2,056
2,061
2,062

973
972
974

143.1

5.0

101.5
102.0
101.7

11,823
11,959
12,352

69,265
70,594
71,692

12,833
13,433
13,264

3,885
3,841
3,959

1,393
1,393
1,394

2,060
2,064
2,070

980
990
1,008

150.5

5.2

July
August
September

102.6
102.8
103.0

12,417
12,457
12,747

72,912
74,129
75,490

13,889
13,809
14,014

4,097
4,223
4,074

1,394
1,396
1,396

2,082
2,084
2,083

1,023
1,017
984

154A

5^

October
November
December

104.5
105.3
107.0

12,857
13,227
13,386

76,042
77,133
78,076

14,227
14,548
15,298

4,159
4,178
4,301

1,391
1,384
1,389

2,090
2,097
2,093

998
1,006
1,009

166 .*9

5!6

January
February
March

105.2
106.5
107.0

13,676
13,864
14,059

81,144
83,719
85,990

14,152
* 14,689
15,075

4,083
4,347
4,417

1,385
1,378
1,376

2,104
2,109
2,107

1,008
1,013
1,018

166.2

5^5

April
May
June

107.2
107.7
107.6

14,209
14,276
14,431

87,917
88,258
89,371

15,670
15,379
15,334

4,277
4,672
4,881

1,373
1,369
1,367

2,106
2,104
2,108

1,022
1,028
1,045

176.2

5.8

July
August
September

109.5
109.5
109.5

14,437
14,700
15,039

89,708
90,598
89,255

16,312
15,050
16,881

4,858
4,766
4,981

1,368
1,358
1,360

2,110
2,109
2,109

1,051
1,043
990

182! 7

5!9

October
November
December

111.9
113.6
1.15.9

15,334
15,568
15,983

89,866
90,561
96,691

15,972
17,087
16,779

5,010
4,968
5,077

1,356
1,355
1,351

2,108
2,114
2,113

1,016
1,024
1,027

189.3

6!i

January
February
March

rll6.4
rll6.0
rll7.8

16,538
16,501
16,824

101,116
101,179
102,632

17,058
16,772
pl6,804

5,143
5,255
5,116

1,345
r1,348
p i 345

2,120
2,122
2,127

1,024
1,028
1,030

rl92*.9

r6*.l

April
May
June

P119.1

(NA)

pl03,809

(NA)

p5,143

(NA)

P2,123

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June

. .

1982

1983

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue,1 page

MAY 1983



iii.

91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q |

Year
and
month

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

604. Exports of agricultural products

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

MERCHANDISE TRADE

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

(Mil.dol.)

612. General imports,
total

(Mil.dol.)

614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products

(Mil. dol.)

616. Imports of
automobiles and parts

(Mil.dol.)

1981
January
February
March

18,902
19,788
21,278

4,295
3,977
4,201

4,058
4,155
4,352

22,616
21,916
21,029

7,359
8,018
5,992

2,264
1,742
2,125

April
May
June

19,786
18,899
19,750

3,604
3,708
3,256

4,311
4,160
4,388

22,249
21,232
22,005

6,919
6,329
6,521

2,042
2,299
2,257

July
August
September

19,289
19,031
19,551

3,089
3,202
3,563

4,567
6,207
4,559

20,114
23,242
21,274

5,400
6,335
5,709

2,108
2,635
1,943

October
November
December

19,163
19,153
18,885

3,735
3,442
3,220

4,338
4,366
4,005

23,077
22,508
19,746

6,123
6,483
4,636

2,464
2,239
2,164

January
February
March

18,584
18,614
18,462

3,258
3,590
3,225

4,346
4,054
3,997

22,573
19,570
20,018

6,810
4,396
4,290

2,389
2,135
2,596

April
May
June

18,005
18,124
18,823

3,400
3,527
3,332

3,932
3,957
4,211

17,714
20,477
21,187

3,894
4,180
4,855

2,389
2,785
2,626

July
August
September

18,060
17,463
17,320

2,789
2,763
2,648

4,305
3,856
4,197

19,849
22,930
20,581

5,624
5,731
4,903

2,455
2,795
2,370

October . .
November
December

16,671
15,852
16,347

2,681
2,783
2,637

3,829
3,686
3,719

21,006
18,892
19,154

5,433
4,757
4,694

2,444
2,130
2,189

17,393
16,326
16,752

3,128
2,985
2,811

3,644
3,359
3,499

20,021
19,015
19,525

4,166
2,859
3,261

2,329
3,019
2,676

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1982

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August . .
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

92



MAY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted l

Goods and services
Year
and
month

667. Balance

668. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

669. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

Income on investments
620. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

651. U.S. investments abroad

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States

(Mil. dol.)

1981
January
February
March

4,667

93,280

88,613

-4,312

60,683

64,995

20,528

12,405

April
May
June

2,909

94,389

91,480

-6,547

60,284

66,831

21,642

13,44i

July
August
September

2,559

92,965

90,406

-7,845

57,694

65,539

22,048

13,865

October
November
December

943

92,259

91,316

-9,i85

57,593

66,778

21,727

13,198

January
February
March

3,082

90,014

86,932

-5,938

55,607

61,545

20,896

14,029

April
May
June

3,928

91,088

87,160

-5,762

55,66i

60,763

22,568

14,874

July
August
September

-3,565

87,i32

90,697

-12,495

52,334

64,829

21,626

14,544

October
November
December

p-3,672

p81,855

p85,527

p-12,136

p48,07i

p60,207

p20,8li

pl3,735

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p-8,430

p49,986

p58,416

(NA)

(NA)

1982

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
. .
August . .
September
October
November
December .

...

. .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

MAY 1983



93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q |

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

721. OECD 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

January
February
March

151.4
151.8
152.1

154
159
158

237.2
237.0
237.7

156
164
160

156
159
157

116
117
117

158.6
170.3
169.3

163.8
166.0
168.0

April
May
June

151.9
152.7
152.9

156
156
155

238.0
235.2
240.7

160
160
156

156
159
160

117
116
118

168.4
158.0
159.8

169.7
170.2
172.7

July
August
September

153.9
153.6
151.6

158
152
158

243.1
240.7
245.6

157
157
160

157
157
160

118
118
118

165.2
137.2
164.1

170.4
164.5
163.8

October
November
December

149.1
146.3
143.4

158
158
156

248.3
248.4
247.1

160
157
156

160
159
160

121
120
118

158.4
168.1
160.4

161.3
158.4
157.2

January
February
March

140.7
142.9
141.7

156
158
158

245.8
244.0
247.1

160
161
161

157
156
156

118
118
120

161.9
169.8
165.7

156.2
154.7
152.5

April
May
June

140.2
139.2
138 7

156
156
154

242.6
238.3
244 1

160
157
154

157
157
157

120
120
118

164.7
162.7
154 9

150.5
151.8
148 0

July
August
September

138.8
138.4
137.3

152
151
152

245.0
244.3
247.1

150
154
152

154
154
154

rl20
rl20
120

159.6
146.4
154.1

143.3
149.5
144.5

October
November
December

135.7
134.9
135.2

151
151

rl50

239.7
246.8
244.8

150
150
149

156
156
154

rl20
117
120

149.7
155.5
151.8

140.0
141.0
rl38.9

January
February
March

rl37.4
rl38.0
rl39.7

152
pl52
(NA)

(NA)

152
pl52
(NA)

156
pl57
(NA)

120
pl22
(NA)

rl52.0
pl55.3
(NA)

rl47.2
rl49.4
pl48 6

April
May
June

pl42.6

Year
and
month

47. United States,
index of industrial production

1981

1982

....

1983

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
'Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



MAY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q
United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

Japan

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ®

CONSUMER PRICES

738c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

735. Index ®

United Kingdom

France

West Germany
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

736. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

736c. Change
over 6-month
spansx

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ®

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans !

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1981
January
February
March

260.5
263.2
265.1

9.9
9.6
9.1

291.1
290.8
292.2

4.4
3.1
3.8

180.9
182.3
183.5

6.6
6.2
5.7

312.7
315.6
318.8

13.2
13.0
13.0

445.5
449.5
456.2

13.0
12.1
11.6

April
May
June

266.8
269.0
271.3

10.0
10.1
10.6

294.5
297.0
297.3

2.6
2.9
3.2

184.7
185.4
186.3

6.3
6.7
6.9

323.1
326.0
329.2

13.8
14.3
15.3

469.4
472.4
475.2

12.5
12.1
10.7

July
August
September

274.4
276.5
279.3

10.5
9.6
8.8

296.4
294.7
299.5

3.9
4.1
4.2

187.1
187.7
188.6

6.9
7.1
6.9

334.9
339.0
342.9

14.9
15.7
15.1

477.3
480.8
483.5

10.4
11.8
12.5

October
November
December

279.9
280.7
281.5

6.9
5.3
3.1

300.7
299.8
299.8

4.0
3.3
2.4

189.2
190.1
190.7

6.3
4.8
3.5

347.1
350.3
352.4

13.9
13.6
13.0

487.9
493.0
496.1

11.5
9.9
10.0

January
February
March

282.5
283.4
283.1

2.9
4.0
5.5

300.7
299.8
300.4

1.9
0.5
0.1

192.3
192.8
193.1

3.0
3.5
4.9

356.0
359.6
363.8

13.0
12.0
12.0

499.0
499.1
503.5

8.4
7.3
6.0

April
May
June

284.3
287.1
290.6

6.1
6.6
6.9

302.9
303.8
303.8

-0.5
2.9
4.0

194.0
195.2
197.1

4.9
5.4
6.3

368.2
371.1
373.7

9.9
8.2
7.2

513.6
517.3
518.9

6.0
6.0
4.7

July
August
September

292.2
292.8
293.3

7.2
5.1
2.3

301.5
303.8
309.1

4.4
4.1
3.7

197.6
197.3
197.9

6.8
5.9
4.0

374.7
375.9
377.5

5.8
6.9
7.3

518.9
519.0
518.7

5.3
5.3
4.2

October
November
December

294.1
293.6
292.4

1.4
0.4
0.5

310.0
306.6
306.0

4.0
rO.7
0.9

198.5
198.9
199.4

2.7
2.3
0.9

379.5
383.2
386.4

9.5
10.3
10.8

521.3
523.9
522.9

4,0
5.6
4.6

January
February
March

293.1
293.2
293.4

0.8

306.6
305.5
307.5

(NA)

199.8
200.0
199.8

(NA)

390.1
392.9
396.5

(NA)

523.5
525.8
526.7

(NA)

April
May
June

295.5

1982

1983

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

MAY 1983



95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q
1j CONSUMER

PRICES—Continued

E l S O K PRICES
TC

Italy
737. Index ® 737c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

Year
and
month

Canada
733. Index ® 733c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ®

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices @

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ®

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ®

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ®

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ®

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ®

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

January
February
March

440.7
449.1
455.4

20.1
20.1
19.3

259.1
261.7
265.2

13.1
12.2
13.2

144.6
139.7
144.9

457.9
458.2
467.3

115.3
114.0
116.3

191.1
201.1
209.4

259.0
269.0
273.2

110.0
122.1
125.9

223.7
218.6
233.9

April
May
June

461.3
468.7
473.9

18.9
18.2
16.8

267.2
269.6
273.8

12.3
12.3
11.9

146.2
143.3
143.9

494.6
502.8
515.2

122.7
122.1
126.1

197.7
162.5
152.3

293.2
295.6
289.0

132.4
135.9
123.5

232.3
245.7
242.9

July
August
September

477.7
481.0
487.7

17.7
16.8
17.0

276.2
278.2
280.2

12.2
12.2
11.0

140.5
141.0
128.7

534.4
540.7
511.3

127.5
122.5
122.5

168.9
177.4
176.5

284.8
298.6
278.9

99.1
112.0
99.1

232.3
231.6
192.3

October
November
December

497.5
506.0
511.1

15.8
15.3
15.6

283.0
285.4
286.7

10.6
10.9
11.2

130.3
133.7
134.7

493.8
505.6
512.7

118.8
118.0
117.7

163.9
169.2
170.7

259.5
278.0
284.2

91.2
93.8
96.9

190.4
208.9
201.2

January
February
March

517.7
524.4
529.1

13.8
13.6
13.1

288.7
292.1
295.8

10.5
11.4
11.4

127.6
124.6
120.6

518.9
516.9
486.2

116.8
118.4
120.1

185.7
193.1
145.9

291.1
300.1
298.8

95.0
98.8
104.2

185.3
176.7
173.1

April
May . . .
June . . .

533.9
539.8
545.2

15.9
19.0
18.7

297.5
301.5
304.5

11.1
10.2
9.5

126.5
126.6
119.7

484.5
503.4
489.6

120.6
117.6
114.2

184.8
183.3
166.3

303.2
315.4
314.6

96.7
91.0
83.1

171.2
168.4
153.8

July
August
September .

553.4
563.4
571.3

20.6
19.8
19.1

306.1
307.6
309.2

9.4
8.2
7.2

119.0
119.3
133.2

480.8
474.3
481.6

113.5
112.3
115.6

161.1
169.3
168.4

313.2
320.1
343.5

78.4
86.1
85.8

156.8
177.4
177.3

October
November
December

582.7
590.3
594.4

16.7
13.7
14.4

311.2
313.3
313.4

5.7
4.7
5.0

144.3
150.2
151.6

490.4
512.7
528.2

118.2
118.8
124.3

170.7
174.5
169.9

360.7
372.0
365.0

86.4
88.8
91.2

192.6
189.7
199.5

January
February . .
March

602.7
610.5
616.0

12.9

312.5
313.9
317.1

(NA)

156.9
159.7
165.2

533.3
530.8
544.2

126.0
131.9
143.9

181.8
188.5
rpl94.3

371.9
381.6
388.3

95.5
109.1
118.7

210.0
216.6
219.5

April
My
a
June

622.2

171.6
pl78.9

559.7
p566.4

157.0
pl57.7

rp209.5
p219.9

rp409.5
p401.8

rpll4.5
pll0.5

rp230.3
p246.6

(1967 = 100)

1981

1982

. .

1983

(NA)

July
August . . .
September
October
November
December .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

1

96



MAY 1983

Rill

APPENDIXES
B.

Current Adjustment Factors
1982

Series

1983

July

111.6

13. New business incorporations1

85.9

80.1

88.3

101.7

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance

Aug.

Sept.

97.0

99.8

98.9

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales,
manufacturing2
..
13

Oct.

98 7

Nov.
97.1

124.1

144.9

105.9

91.4

94.2

84.5

92.1

91.5

103.9

96.2

90.6

112.0

100.8

101.1

106.6

-1977

-1102

-169

-67

1253

100 4

99 9

99 3

99 9

100.0

99.4

95.6

108 7

90 8

103.9

104.4

87.8

85.9

101.3

91.2

89.9

76.0

109.7

96.2

95.1

88.2

101.5

101.5

100.2

102.8

102.0

101.8

102.5

101.3

98.5

99.8

99.9

100.2

100.5

100.4

100.2

100.3

100.0

99.8

99.9

99.7

97.0

99.5

96.3

105.0

93.2

96.6

109.8

97.7

100.2

104.2

87.7

90.2

90.2

107.7

109.6

109.5

99.6

101.1

113.4

103.1

98.7

93.7

96.1

97.2

95.1

102.8

96.5

98.9

91.4

93.6

111.8

100.9

103.0

109.1

97 0

103.9

96.7

101 0

92.9

103 2

106.6

105 0

100 0

101 1

88 1

103.1

92.5

90.6

92.9

99.7

102.3

98.8

106.6

86.3

111.7

100.6

108.4

109.4

880

371

99 6

99 2

99 6

100 5

100 6

101 5

517. Defense Department gross obligations
incurred1

95.2

83 2

126.1

130 0

100 1

525. Defense Department prime contract awards

84.6

79.7

190.7

104.2

543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligations outstanding

96.9

94.7

98.1

570. Employment in defense products industries .

99.8

99.4

100.1

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products .
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

1

580. Defense Department net outlays

614

Imports of petroleum and products1

516. Imports of automobiles and parts1

....

June

105.5

97.4

98.3

860

72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars'4

May

Feb.

785

...

Apr.

Jan.

-364

33. Net change in mortgage debt

Mar.

Dec.

825 -1696

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
''These factors apply to only the loans portion of this series.




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Feb.

Jan.
5

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL (:LAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 11•JSURANCE , STATE

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

344
200
210
169
29R
276
215
223
320
311
351
385
305
299
276
262
212
208
209
190
211
322
2R3
241
251
473
393
390
347
340
420
422
539
616

29R
197
213
190
280
253
214
230
355
320
275
381
296
310
301
251
206
219
204
190
210
299
265
236
284
494
364
361
342
347
428
420
551
531

IQ

285
294
174
221
175
303
256
218
242
354
292
281
393
301
310
283
243
222
196
206
179
240
292
264
226
294
522
360
394
343
353
416
424
563

962.
1949...
1950
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

333
276
166
209
188
320
228
221
219
436
258
303
379
287
288
277
237
182
256
194
185
262
294
258
227
302
536
358
346
335
346
438
413
566

379
263
199
219
179
313
228
223
239
438
244
294
381
283
293
265
237
179
259
193
181
326
281
260
238
289
521
371
371
322
411
532
395
566

377
250
199
213
198
313
222
236
244
400
246
316
358
301
288
262
224
192
236
195
182
302
290
262
234
294
496
392
378
324
341
616
401
585

359
252
209
242
195
314
222
227
246
410
258
322
334
304
284
257
224
194
231
194
197
291
289
2R6
233
314
491
394
358
331
358
581
405
551

340
223
236
315
207
294
223
245
267
350
264
335
348
303
282
260
231
199
231
192
195
273
285
272
232
294
442
393
370
347
377
510
395
533

385
170
254
207
229
319
233
224
235
363
291
363
316
305
290
244
24R
195
212
199
196
287
325
246
247
350
449
389
368
339
383
495
421
605

320
182
242
168
238
322
204
236
305
338
271
351
329
300
285
245
218
197
217
194
195
319
307
245
241
374
447
410
363
321
378
488
483
653

386
194
234
175
251
315
224
214
302
314
311
373
304
304
282
249
209
203
220
18R
202
329
294
250
244
419
420
409
357
326
400
447
517
651

308
286
174
210
180
314
241
222
229
399
278
285
400
294
300
277
243
208
228
199
183
253
291
261
225
304
530
353
389
353
350
417
416
548

DIFFUSION INDEX OF INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE P R O G R A M S — 5 1 AREAS
(PERCENT DECLINING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

33.3
21.6
68.6
60.8
84.3
35.3
7.8

37.3
88.2
61.8
76.5
23.5
11.8
74.5
96.1
47.1
47.1
18.6
54.9
17.6
84.3
78.4
37.3
3.9

51.0
94.1
39.2
33.3
11.8
23.5
86.3
96.1
962.

305.
288
181
201
177
318
240
226
225
407
284
271
429
295
301
270
248
219
231
196
186
256
286
262
223
315
532
340
427
381
352
397
410
514

51.0
79.4
37.3
19.6
74.5
29.4
86.3
21.6
63.7
21.6
9.8
84.3
90.2
70.6
19.6
45.1
22.5
78.4
49.0
48.0
29.4
19.6
78.4
74.5
35.3
41.2
25.5
47.1
72. 5
60.8
39.2
24.5

85.3
41.2
47.1
31.4
49.0
60.8
63.7
27.5
62.7
9.8
70.6
39.2
72.5
25.5
39.2
86.3
40.2
76.5
76.5
25.5
11.8
68.6
31.4
80.4
72.5
10.8
49.0
54.9
68. 6
46.1
31.4
5.9

25.5
26.5
63.7
62.7
76.5
39.2
15.7
36.3
57.8
86.3
77.5
47.1
17.6
47.1
64.7
74.5
39.2
33.3
33.3
19.6
98.0
82.4
35.3
23.5
30.4
52.9
68.6
82.4
7.8
3.9
64.7
62.7

74. 5
27.5
92.2
23.5
17.6
29.4
56.9
58.8
76.5
52.9
3.9
35.3
41.2
74.5
74.5
45.1
29.4
66.7
57.8
63.7
62.7
31.4
52.0
33.3
43.1
82.4
29.4
24.5
42.2

58. 8
68.6
62.7
19.6
41.2
72.5
58.B
15.7
39.2
29.4
72.5
70.6
76.5
23.5
21.6
64.7
80.4
71.6
56.9
27.5
13.7
62.7
74.5
92.2
15.7
13.7
38.2
82.4
94.1

41.2
39.2
54.9
27.5
90.2
52.9
35.3
26.5
86.3
31.4
47.1
76.5
24.5
47.1
74.5
80.4
35.3
45.1
49.0
48.0
58.8
88.2
43.1
15.7

37.3
58.8

31.4
41.2
47.1
82.4
80.4
27.5
23.5
76.5
21.6
60.8
74.5
39.2
21.6
74.5
81.4
38.2
33.3
17.6
35.3
66.7
68.6
59.8
19.6
11.8
62.7
66.7
80.4
49.0

70.6
17.6
19.6

62.7
68.6
67.6

R4.3
58.8
9.8

13.7
9.8
17.6

45.1
58.8
39.2
52.9
47.1
29.4
35.3
70.6
85.3
27.5
29.4
25.5
51.0
82.4
78.4
27.5
41.2
58.8
82.4
72.5
76.5

66.7
49.0
28.4
35.3
51.0
66.7
83.3
45.1
17.6
25.5
74.5
68.6
76.5
17.6
11.8
58.8
78.4
80.4
25.5
27.5

5.9

54.9
72.5
80.4
73.5

28.4
33.3
68.6
56.9
23.5
11.8
66.7
33.3
78.4
68.6

5.9

0.0

3.9

98.0
41.2
23.5
3.9

96.1
19.6
47.1
80.4
54.9
76.5
78.4
88.2
11.8
76.5
64.7
2.0

52.9
78.4
66.7
10.8
2.0

76.5
74.5
76.5
46.1
2.0
76.5
11.8

54.9
43.1
20.6
9.8
96.1
31.4
31.4
7.8
94.1
15.7
52.9
82.4
64.7
74.5
78.4
90.2
15.7
86.3
43.1
2.0
60.8
72.5
60.8
21.6
2.0
69.6
70.6
56.9
27.5
2.0
81.4
31.4




41.2
31.4
24.5
23.5
94.1
25.5
31.4
16.7
76.5
31.4
70.6
54.9
72.5
88.2
88.2
72.5
25.5
74.5
31.4
0.0
70.6
62.7
51.0
9.8
21.6
70.6
68.6

47.1
25.5
9.8
70.6
43.1

35.3
74.5
5.9

17.6
80.4
39.2
43.1
33.3
58.8
17.6
68.6
60.8
67.6
80.4
86.3
70.6
35.3
68.6
43.1

35.3
70.6
11.8
21.6
94.1
43.1
13.7
39.2
76.5

33.3
84.3

41.2
76.5

5.9

2.0

33.3
86.3
31.4

76.5
60.8
41.2

9.8

0.0

74.5
37.3

96.1
15.7

5.9

3.9

5.9

84.3
47.1
51.0
84.3
84.3
80.4
45.1
68.6
37.3

78.4
35.3
82.4
86.3
82.4
70.6
43.1
94.1
37.3

86.3
25.5
80.4
61.8
90.2
62.7
82.4
79.4
35.3

3.9

0.0

2.0

5.9

45.1
84.3
37.3
21.6
51.0
22.5
57.8
52.9
56.9
19.6
19.6
15.7

47.1
82.4
35.3

52.9
58.8
33.3
13.7
75.5
17.6
74.5
60.8
31.4

41.2
78.4

7.8

58.8
29.4
53.9
60.8
49.0
3.9

19.6
23.5

7.8
5.9
9.8

IV Q

Annual

76.5
90.2
76.5
25.5

45.1
60.8
54.9
15.7
70.6
31.4
49.0
52.9
82.4
37.3
25.5
37.3
79.4
R2.4
37.3
34.3
29.4
62.7
58.8
56.9
58. 8
19.6
49.0
51.0
29.4
94.1
29.4
41.2
29.4

72. 5
48.0
11.8
43.1
74.5
62.7
70.6
27.5
19.6
78.4
5R.R
94.1
66.7
13.7
51.0
64.7
39.2
64.7
39.2
17.6
56.9
76.5
82.4
47.1
5.9
21.6
90.2
90.2
86.3

76.5
60.8
R8.2

96.1
49.0
60.8

5.9
22.5
76.5

3.9

7.8
9.8

92.2
17.6
65.7
51.0
21.6
58.8
17.6
17.6

25.5
47.1
2.0
88.2
70.6
43.1
3.9
90.2
27.5
23.5
94.1
45.1
17.6
64.7
90.2
29.4
80.4
53.9
12.7
13.7
84.3
76.5
21.6
2.0
R2.4
62.7
82.4
76.5
25.5
23.5
9.8
72.5

21.6
R2.4
3.9
94.1
56.9
9.8
5.9
98.0
31.4
9.8
88.2
17.6
72.5
100.0
88.2
5.9
62.7
60.8
3.9
70.6
70.6
45.1
2.0
0.0
98.0
56.9
68.6
15.7
47.1
96.1
27.5
82.4

; but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.

35.3
60.8
7.8

98.0
39.2
47.1
3.9

98.0
3.9
3.9

96.1
60.8
88.2
64.7
62.7
12.7
86.3
54.9
2.0

51.0
41.2
96.1
15.7
3.9

92.2
37.3
70.6
51.0
35.3
96.1
11.8

25.5
58.8
9.8
94.1
60.8
56.9
0.0
100.0
7.8
5.9
90.2
70.6
54.9
72.5
96.1
5.9
88.2
41.2
2.0
25.5
84.3
88.2
15.7
0.0
88.2
88.2
78.4
66.7
33.3
88.2
5.9

372
255
202
225
191
313
224
229
243
416
249
311
358
296
288
261
22R
188
242
194
187
306
287
269
235
299
503
386
369
326
370
576
400
567

348
192
244
230
225
312
220
235
269
350
275
350
331
303
286
250
232
197
220
195
195
293
306
254
240
339
446
397
367
336
379
498
433
597

343
197
219
178
276
281
218
222
326
315
312
380
302
304
286
254
209
210
211
189
208
317
281
242
260
462
392
387
349
338
416
430
536
599

343
232
210
211
218
305
226
227
267
370
279
331
348
299
290
260
228
201
225
194
193
292
291
257
240
351
468
381
368
338
379
480
446
578

AVERAG12 FOR PERIOD

56.5
47.4
51.0
37.3
69.3
41.8
52.6
28.8
71.5
31.1
52.3
49.0
58.2
56.9
51.6
59.5
36.6
57.8
60.1
30.4
41.8
55.5
49.0
52.9
52.9
48.7
37.9
45.1
51.0
43.5
52.3
42.2

DIFFUSION INDEX OF INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS — 5 1 AREAS
(PERCENT DECLINING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)

52.9
60.8
37.3

II Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(THOUSANDS)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

II Q

PROGRAMS

45^

4^5

44.8
43.8
50.3
58.2
45.1
44.8
50.7
53.6
46.4
60.5
47.1
48.4
49.0
51.6
53.6
52.9
57.5
47.1
39.9
60.1
47.7
45.4
45.7
57.5
36.6
43.1
51.0
47.1
35.9
53.6
50.3

65.4
30.1
47.1
60.8
47.7
32.7
64.1
34.6
45.7
60.1
52.3
39.9
56.9
63.7
49.3
57.2
44.1
42.2
47.7
54.2
62.1
48.4
23.5
52.9
44.8
62.4
61.8
53.6
45.7
31.7

•••

52.9
49.3
40.5
28.8
78.4
49.0
51.6
35.6
62.8
49.0
43.8
69.3
56.9
47.7
54.3
59.8
34.6
57.5
49.0
40.8
58.2
61.4
58.2
37.9
13.1
64.1
69.9
69.3
47.1
44.1
59.5
44.1

48! 5
49.5
38.4
53.3
59.3
46.6
41.4
51.6
52.2
41.8
60.6
51.3
48.5
54.3
56.7
49.3
51.1
52.1
47.6
44.0
54.4
55.9
45.2
33.8
56.9
50.0
53.2
51.2
50. 4
4e!l
48.9

75. 2

49.8

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
60.8
21.6
70.6
2.0
92.2
37.3
41.2
0.0
98.0
35.3
15.7
82.4
46.1
74.5
66.7
92.2
7.8
74.5
62.7
2.0
49.0
90.2
7R.4
23.5
0.0
88.2
88.2
86.3
29.4
5.9
88.2
7.8

49.7
45.1
27.5
12.4
96.1
32.7
28.8
9.5
88.9
22.2
56.9
72.6
64.0
79.7
81.7
83.6
17.7
79.1
46.4
1.3
61.4
71.2
59.5
14.1
8.5
72.2
71.2
60.2
33.0
4.6
76.2
28.8

34.6
76.5

29.4
68.7

7.9

2.6

24.2
86.9
37.9
22.2
49.0
57.5

86.3
62.8
31.4

9.1

77.1
47.7
67.0
83.7
R4.3
73.9
41.2
77.1
39.2
2.0

48.4
75.2
35.3
14.4
61.8
23.2
62.1
58.2
45.8
10.4
15.0
16.3

3.3

94.8
24.9
13.1
89.5
29.4
56.8
75.5
89.5
32.7
75.2
64.7
17.3
30.1
65.4
66.7
10.5
3.9

90.9
45.7
72.2
47.7
31.4
59.5
18.3
57.5

27.5
63.4
6.5
94.«
45.8
48.4
1.3
98.7
15.7
8.5
89.6
59.2

72.5
68.0
83.7
8.8
83.0
52.9
2.0
41.8
71.9
R7.6
18.3
1.3
89.5
71.2
78.4
49.0
24.8
90.8
8.5

3^3

63.4
11.1
54.4
72.9
37.6
13.9
63.0
46.7
13.2
78.3
52.2
65.1
76.7
84.8
49.7
54.2
68.5
26.2
18.8
61.8
75.2
30.9
8.4

62.7
53.1
71.0
53.8
33.8
41.3
29.5

(MAY 1983)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

My
a

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

13 . NUMBER OF NEW BUSINESS INCORPORATIONS
(NUMBER)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953.
1954!!!
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

7,012
7,830
7,214
7,080
8,304
8,638
11,902
11,620
11,250
11,042
16,346
16,561
13,607
15,599
14,924
15,993
16,784
18,087
16,703
18,061
21,364
22,196
22,563
25,270
27,796
26,511
24.R09
29,613
34,311
36,414
42,043
44,230
46,039
43,330

6,R26
R,275
7,016
7,214
8,351
8,937
11,843
12,449
11,359
11,049
16,255
15,274
14,570
15,758
15,390
16,326
16,854
17,451
15,987
18,041
22,105
22,968
21,034
25,084
2R,752
27,056
24,931
29,772
33,844
39.434
42,014
44,175
48,588
47,234

6,791
8,078
6,937
7,348
8,634
9,155
11,679
11,591
11,367
11,042
16,54R
15,233
14,658
15,670
15,563
15,917
17,131
17,266
16,244
18,538
22,083
21,346
22,883
26,231
28,964
26,458
25,076
31,000
35,018
37,847
43,299
43,359
47,972
46,899
14.

1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

19.16
26.44
21.68
26.21
23.31
29.59
37.87
42.89
54.06
64.44
73.56
53.67
81.52
106.61
160.96
96.73
89.27
103.18
108.17
104.49
75.03
137.28
168.80
101.62
205.84
337.28
391.14
257.07
168.54
168.31
182.22
243.15
341.36
645.14

27.57
22.16
16.01
19.47
27.27
47.77
42.06
49.19
65.41
65.30
58.59
60.94
88.08
90.50
94.72
123.94
111.98
95.54
113.45
79.60
89.99
139.39
150.90
191.33
137.16
213.13
384.76
211.76
194.20
205.01
177.09
190.79
789.20

32.

6,879
8,132
7,082
7,499
8,534
9,276
11,215
11,888
11,507
10,636
16,604
15,280
15,327
15,372
15,305
16,132
16,664
17,057
16,760
18,663
23,262
21,829
22,814
26,630
28,522
29,071
26,70R
30,808
34,529
39,585
43,401
42,240
49,413
46,876

31.93
21.25
17.06
29.53
27.52
42.51
35.97
41.R7
57.10
83.98
71.91
69.19
86.11
121.83
100.76
112.88
83.25
110.14
103.R2
80.11
118.76
131.90
153.80
148.47
119.34
209.76
372.08
206.42
207.27
202.99
242.76
428.15
536.88

6,R79
fl, 394
6, 759
7,700
8,605
9,436

7,057
7,89R
6, 796
7,683
8,757
9,772

7,330
7,684
6,880
8,065

7,403
7,092
6,952
8,259

7,532
7,176
6,995
8,341

7,659
7,059
7,119
8,265

7,78R
7,007
7,181
8,096

9,882

10.0R5

10,730

12,245
11,109
11,752
16,296
15,176
15,298
15,245
15,682
16,473
16,580
16,644
17,627
18,723
23,11R
21,R74
23,960
26,270
28,286
27,562
26,632
28,784
35,256
39,059
44,317

11,999
11,739
12,032
15,204
15,630
15,431
14,947
15,536
16,282
17,017
16,577
17,799
1R,R39
23,439
21,796
24,4R1

ll!R51
11,'6R6
12,504
15,658
15,828
15,492
15,171
15,431
16,550
16,844
16,074
16,300
19,407
23,366
21,614
24,677

11,707
11,593
13,644
15,813
15,114
15,277
15,056
16,093
15,692
16,901
16,343
17,674
19,947
22,R71
21,796
25,012

11,193
11,318
13,933
15,72R
15,112
15,402
15,249
15,689
16,94P

11,925
11,251
13,669
15,3R3
15,035
16,035
14,R92
16,275
16,728

11,212
11,761
11,186
10,7RR
14,599
15,695
14,264
16,149

11,604
11,560
11,139
10,791
15,577
15,959
14,097
15,881

15,759
16,804

15,764
20,5R2
22,594
22,181
23,623

16,233
17,654
21,093
24,263
21,712
25,356

16,206
17.95R
20,890
23,125
22,217
25,510

15,867
17,021
17,625
16,583
18,238
20,619
22,404
22,2 72
25,634

27,999
25,7R5
26,307
31,420
36,694
39,860
43,504

27,477

26,6R9

26,240

26,R09

26,718

24,8R1

28,655
31,037
36,874
40,152
44,513

27,RIO
31,301
38,180
41,007
43,634

2R,359
31,921
37,271
41,553
44,173

29,079
32,160
3P,213
41,437
45,295

28,634
33,183
3R,30R
41,423
44,540

29^282
33,124
38,900
42,179
43,563

20,629
24,183
21,167
21,642
25,289
26,730
35,424
35,660
33,976
33,133
49,149
47,068
42,835
47,027
45,877
48,236
50,769
52,804
48,934
54,640
65,552
66,510
66,480
76,585
85,512
80,025
74,816
90,385
103,173
113,695
127,356

48,997
46,995

49,172
45,936

49,038
44,525

4R.631
46,9R1

48,450
45,552

47,947
45,530

49,413
48,474

47^556
57,507

131,764
142,599
137,463

20,764
24,929
20,689
22,640
25,924
27,870
34,808
36,132
34,355
34,420
48,104
46,086
46,056
45,564
46,523
48,887
50,261
50,278
52,186
56,225
69,819
65,499
71,255
79,075
84,807
82,418
79,647
91,012
106,479
118,504
131,222
125,598
147,582
139,807

23.89
16.65
29.74
35.05
37.OP
29.00
34.78
50.00
47.43
47.27
50. 3R
R1.51
70.26
119.09
91. R3
93.77
R2.07
108.05
81.63
65.38
116.44
144.77
144.70
152.97
185.66
306.83
1295.39
183.57
115.69
475.34
395.75
359.24
897.94

22. RO
18. R6
17.57
1R.76
36.RO
35.07
42.78
39.R9
52.90
56.72
53.21
84.46
119.21
9R.R4
262.11
119.32
71.72
106.73
69.98
58.65
127.14
119.84
129.00
208.5fi
218.67
344.66
252.87
277.60
200.29
17R.93
184.31
239.34
618.76

19.25
21.04
19.40
23.40
43.75
40.10
41.64
50.28
45.32
57.07
59.56
7R.97
65.49
R1.28
68.43
98.28
97. 5R
161.48
195.45
83.41
96.85
121.72
111.32
86.79
245.62
242.59
136.88
200.44
168.32
196.54
138.02
288.30
626.74

83.92
76.50
55.34
74.91
81.66
134.64
121.14
134.70
175.30
201.30
197.20
184.80
296.22
277.99
353.38
331.67
347.83
302.19
340.94
272.68
249.14
396.69
544.35
513.61
595.35
755.00
1119.25
716.48
610.94
697.73
547.07
708.18
1615.90

84.67
61.99
63.33
71.94
92.69
122.61
107.35
144.78
161.10
201.67
172.03
268.95
250.41
301.83
305.18
350.R0
360.97
330.10
301.83
246.18
303.28
450.29
569.13
466.51
467.50
800.95
905.79
813.34
987.02
542.23
716.38
1245.98
1373.62

13
59
81
23
38
24
60
48
29
29
61
34

13
63
47
25
36
34
69
43
29
37
62
31

56
52
56
69
82
46
53
61
55
43
54
83
87
17
48
52
62
75
45
49
34

45
57
59
69
75
38
52
69
64
52
59
90
80
24
59
57
65
74
33
52
33

24.58
22.67
23.50
21.19
32.79
38.49
34.71
59.90
52.55
56.25
50.92
73.31
80.47
91.51
118.27
93.42
133.11
96.38
93.37
91.41
92.60
147.89
249.49
190.14
167.95
375.69
357.79
233.28
473.89
160.40
200.45
381.15
428.20

28. 16
1R.07
22.77
21.22
32.38
41.61
36.67
43.01
51.45
61.44
49.20
126.45
83.83
88.49
86.15
144150
144.61
123.58
104.64
74.66
91.92
170.50
165.84
127.90
180.21
215.50
175.92
373.64
305.86
178.84
273.17
436.68
408.54

17,fllfl

16
54
84
28
37
21
54
48
33
28
58
44
38
56
50
55

12
62
85
22
37
24
60
46
28
28
62
30
40
56
52
54

10
60
74
18
40
27
66
49
25
32
62
27
40
55
54
60

14
60
58
19
38
30
71
50
28
34
62
28
47
48
60
60

36
35
70
39
30
38
62
32
48
46
58
63

1967...
1968...
1969...
1970.
1971!!!
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

48
50
62
56
38
52
78
85
18
42
44
55
69
48
46
32

51
55
61
58
44
52
84
88
16
50
55
64
77
42
50
36

38
54
61
50
46
58
88
88
17
52
56
67
78
45
52
35

39
52
68

36
52
69

12
64
38
34
34
36
65
40
29
38
62
34
48
42
54
55
66
69
38
52
70

52
58
90
84
22
58
58
64
76
40
56
31

53
60
92
79
24
58
56
64
76
32
52
30

50
60
89
76
26
62
5R
66
70
28
48
38

12
66
46

86,162
93,028
83,779
92,991
102,620
117,885
140,416
140,793
135,758
151,479
191,489
182,604
183,127
182,895
187,514
196,866
204,136
200,285
206,762
233,403
273,994
263,801
287,547
317,444
329,133
319,003
326,282
374,123
437,398
479,950
524,296
531,519
581,216
565,839

65.94
56.55
66.71
77.21
117.63
104.17
119.20
140.17
145.65
161.06
163.15
244.94
254.96
299.21
422.37
311.37
251.37
376.26
347.06
207.44
340.43
386.33
385.02
448.34
649.95
894.08
1685.14
661.61
484.30
850.81
718.08
886.88
2143.44

308.11
248.28
259.53
283.31
394.16
462.61
449.38
562.69
615.28
728.27
692.82
938.61
1090.11
1213.59
1352.59
1329.22
1321.67
1385.68
1265.22
940.99
1142.11
1887.76
1916.94
2000.24
2298.61
3053.12
4380.18
3011.26
3095.32
2656.01
2667.37
4635.08
6955.17

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
60
8R
50

58
87
34

50
84
31

30
41
72

25
47
72

22
53
72

20
52
66

20
50
56

32
57
64
41
55
48
52
74
62

36
58
. 64
39

29
58
56
38

36
25
52
50
38

44
42
59
62

34
49
62
40
52
44
48
65
64

48
48
72
60

48
48
70
66

48
46
66
72

56
66

46
68

46
66

60
62

48
63
R8
72
30
60
59
56
60
32
46
37

49
63
R8
68
36
64
58
65
55
34
48
40

4R

52
65
38
50
73
90
46
45
50
56
68
50
44
38
44

56
64
36
51
77
8R
22
39
45
56
6R
49
47
30
38

65
90
52
44
60
56
66
51
39
43
40

73.58
53.24
74.15
59.25
102.18
101.19
101.69
143.04
133.23
164.24
160.44
239.92
288.52
334.56
271.66
335.38
361.50
377.13
275.39
214.69
249.26
654.45
418.44
571.78
585.81
603.09
670.00
819.83
1013.06
565.24
685.84
1794.04
1822.21

<§

53
96
50

These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




22,979
21,242
21,295
24,702
25,950
33,546
34,989
34,250
32,830
43,845
47,037
43,396
48,065
44,828
47,901
50,553
52,225
49,022
53,850
62,602
69,792
66,201
76,500
81,462
78,408
75,962
86,995
98,467
115,421
125,039
133,398
140,535
144,916
151,511

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

20.60
31.18
15.25
18.45
26.64
26.42
20.14
16.32
33.82
28.53
32.5R
36.3R
33.12
36.03
39.31
55.04
43.51
45.42
50.76
48.10
54.50
54.74
R0.60
97. 59
102.69 116.66
96.16
146.83
85.92
65.23
95.ia 114:56
135.04 104.9R
178.09 129.16
93.94
10R.90
5R.65
65.77
73.70
62.83
169.59 232.94
155.56 115.85
253.62 113.54
190.15 189.47
232.68 217.01
222.44 205.53
263.96 250.32
96.99
33R.25
206.40 127.02
2P7.44 186.20
345.41 1002.94
450.41 752.34

3R
94
3R

22
88
34
50
30
40
70
56
38
44
60
36

21,790
22,674
20,628
24,007
25,457
29,739
35,195
34,751
34,597
40,081
47,199
46,054
46,171
45,476
47,213
49,190
50,881
48,181
51,792
59,936
68,831
65,591
73,312
80,322
80,406
80,598
84,824
94,259
112,325
122,712
132,320
133,622
146,119
137,058

®

VENDOR PERFORMANCE, PERCENT OF COMPANIE S RECEIVING SLOWER DELIVERIES
(PERCENT)

1949...
1950...
1951...
1952.
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963.
..
1964...
1965...

NOTE:

21.80
19.54
21.09
22.79
39.83
32.23
32.5448.69
44.30
65.3R
51.20
61.73
69.17
91.57
120.51
125:64
121.48
69. 8R
72.55
90.27
112.73
251.92
147.03
204.62
206.19
153.40
242.03
305.55
577.82
231.82
212.20
445.69
619.46

Annual

TOTAL FOR PI:RIOD

7,006
8,403
6,R48
7,441
8,785
9,158

CURRENT LIABILITIES OF BUSINESS FAILURES
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

37.19
27.90
17.65
29.23
31.08
57.28
41.21
42.62
55.83
71.56
65.05
70.19
126.62
80.88
97.70
111.00
146.5R
103.47
119.32
88.59
84.12
120.02
224.65
220.66
252.35
204.59
343.35
247.65
248.20
324.41
187.76
274.24
485.34

III Q ' IV Q

II Q

48
70
91
32
44
48
50
66
47
45
32
40

38
93
41
48
28
43
71
52
35
50
62
39
52
45

47

66
63
72
43
49
67
47
48
64
89
64
37
61
58
62
55
35
46
39

56
86
38
43
21
52
65
42
30
56
57
38

30
75
52
35
31
38
66
46
31
43
60
36

53
48
47
69
66
64
50
56
64
37
50
73
90
33
43
48
54
67
49
45
33
41

48
49
51
63
67
73
44
53
65
51
48
63
88
66
30
54
55
64
63
40
45
37

(MAY

1983)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Feb.

Jan.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

87.91
96.89
99.16
102.80
103.29
99.79
105.89
108.08
106.06
104.07
107.71
108.99
110.06
113.09
115.93
118.72
124.60
130.44
132.07
136.46
140.56
137.31
138.02
144.96
149.81
151.91
147.80
152.00
159.29
166.37
170.39
169.29
169.66
164.27

88.48
97.44
99.60
103.12
102.29
100.93
106.46
108.23
105.72
105.03
108.20
109.52
110.87
113.38
115.87
119.67
125.36
130.76
133.02
136.42
140.20
136.78
139.80
146.00
151.57
149.78
148.37
152.56
159.58
167.87
170.38
169.17
168.68
163.32

Dec.

IQ

II Q

88.89
97.19
99.93
103.94
101.66
101.20
106.80
108.56
105.54
105.42
109.95
106.79
110.68
113.21
115.84
120.60
126.16
130.98
133.11
136.90
140.73
137.77
140.26
146.10
151.44
148.06
149.22
153.13
159.49
167.92
170.81
170.20
168.56
164.13

91.92
89.43
99.02
100.67
104.27
100.64
102.07
106.88
108.15
103.61
106.91
109.97
107.78
111.10
113.38
116.05
121.55
127.59
130.91
133.24
137.99
140.05
137.72
141.69
147.72
151.30
146.47
150.74
153.91
160.57
168.67
171.19
170.75
167.39

90.35
92.21
99.81
100.06
104.28
99.83
104.07
107.30
107.61
102.00
108.98
110.08
108.28
112.76
114.64
117.54
122.58
128.83
130.90
134.40
139.23
139.22
138.28
143.11
149.18
150.80
145.48
150.66
156.33
164.41
168.60
168.96
170.32
167.13

-9.2

l!"7
-3 .'8

5.7
-3.0
4.0
10.0
-7.1
3.3
3.9
3.7
-2.0
21.2
-26.1
-2.0
-1.8
-0.3

48. EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS '
ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF EMPLOYEE -HOURS)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

92.44
89.16
98.69
100.52
103.81
100.48
101.24
106.88
107.71
104.90
106.43
110.00
107.72
109.91
113.23
114.80
120.96
126.60
131.41
132.44
137.62
139.91
137.97
141.16
146.64
151.12
147.82
151.04
152.19
159.02
168.01
171.56
171.34
165.54

92.04
88.72
98.99
101.00
104.34
100.86
101.87
107.09
108.51
103.14
106.64
110.14
107.81
111.36
113.40
116.59
121.64
127.74
130.70
133.68
137.82
139.97
137.34
141.86
147.91
151.55
146.29
150.70
154.79
160.54
168.38
171.45
170.18
16R.82

91.28
90.40
99.38
100.48
104.67
100.59
103.11
106.67
108.22
102.80
107.65
109.78
107.82
112.02
113.50
116.75
122.06
128.42
130.61
133.61
138.52
140.26
137.84
142.06
148.61
151.22
145.31
150.49
154.74
162.16
169.61
170.57
170.74
167.81

90.94
90.99
99.95
100.02
104.59
100.13
103.21
107.38
107.63
101.83
108.57
110.32
107.65
112.58
114.34
117.43
122.11
128.38
130.55
133.76
138.72
139.83
137.95
142.87
148.82
149.09
145.37
149.63
155.41
163.93
166.05
169.68
169.54
167.12

90.41
92.32
99.75
100.46
104.06
99.67
104.41
107.12
107.65
102.04
108.94
110.03
108.27
112.80
114.66
117.47
122.87
128.58
130.92
134.48
139.38
139.07
138.33
142.93
149.19
151.73
145.76
151.29
156.49
164.13
169.42
168.95
170.75
167.88

R9.69
93.32
99.74
99.70
104.19
99.69
104.58
107.39
107.56
102.14
109.42
109.89
108.91
112.90
114.91
117.72
122.76
129.53
131.23
134.97
139.58
138.75
138.56
143.53
149.52
151.58
145.31
151.07
157.08
165.17
170.33
168.24
170.66
166.40

89.32
94.33
99.71
99.19
104.05
99.45
104.80
106.10
107.61
102.45
109.08
109.89
109.29
112.94
115.11
118.06
123.13
129.49
131.43
135.52
139.83
139.04
138.09
143.25
149.87
151.43
145.59
151.61
157.65
165.57
170.48
167.36
171.00
166.04

89.37
96.34
99.42
100.72
103.35
99.26
104.98
107.39
107.64
103.01
108.18
109.81
109.70
113.22
115.18
118.31
123.62
129.86
131.77
13 5.86
140.33
138.54
13ft.63
143.92
150.01
151.33
147.13
151.52
157.95
165.78
170.43
168.21
170.91
165.50

89.54
96.33
99.19
102.35
102.57
99.36
105.62
107.53
107.19
104.03
107.84
109.24
109.24
113.57
115.56
118.31
123.88
129.80
132.34
136.14
140.46
134.34
138.41
144.89
150.29
151.47
147.54
152.00
15*.67
166.02
170.73
168.94
167.29
165.48

1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

-13.1
3.7
20.2
7.3
-1.5
-13.1

-5.1
-5.8
3.7
5.9
6.3
4.6

-9.5
25.2
4.8
-6.0
3.9
-3.2

-4.4
8.1

0.9
-9.0
-7.0
12.1
0.5
11.0
-8.0
0.2
-10.3
3.6
4.3
4.0
-5.9
6.5
-6.8
1.8
8.0
4.5
-2.5
—1 • 9
15.7
-7.1
-3.5
0.6
5.4
8.3
-19.5
12.9

2.4
9.3
-18.4
2.4
1.5
1.0
17.0
1.8

-4.6
-3.2
-3.9
12.0
-3.9
0.1
7.3
1.1

7.0
11.4
-6.3
11.8

-6.8
19.0

-4.8
13.8

0.7
28.8

2.3
-0.1

8.3
-6.3
-10.8
10.8
6.1
-1.9
6.2
9.3

5.4
-5.9
-5.4
14. 9
-2.9
0.2
2.5
4.2
-3.1
7.1
2.4
3.4

-8.7
1.5
0.2
2.0
3.1
-1.0

-6.0
-1.6
-2.9
2. 6
-13.5
0.6

20.2
-7.8
-2.3
2.1
15.6
0.3

21.2
-8.7
1.2
7.6
1.6
-4.9

5.4
-1.5
7.3
1.1
2.6

-3.7
0.0
4.3
0.4
2.1

-9.5
-0.9
4.6
3.0
0.7

-3.7
-6.1
-4.9
3.8
4.0

-1.4
-2.7
9.4
-5.0
3.9

5.6
6.0
9.2
3.1
-0.6

4.2
6.6
-0.8
-0.6

0.5
-0.4
-0.5
1.4

7.7
1.9
3.5
6.7

-1.1
9.2
2.9
4.5

3. 5
3.7
-0.4
1.8
5.0

2.6
4.9
3.5
3.1
3.1

0.0
2.6
-0.6
5.3
2.5

0.5
-5.3
6.1
10.9
3.5

2.5
4.5
1.7
5.8
-2.6

-3.6
1.0
7.1

-6.3
3.4
0.5

-2.7
2.0
5.2

2.5
-4.0
-2.3

-15.7

23.4

-1.2

1.1
-30.9
-1.9
8.4
2.3
1.1

10.0
7.6
3.0
9.0
-0.4
-3.0
-4.5
16.6
9.0
15.0
-15.6

9.0
4.0
0.8
-1.0
-12.9

—11.7
-2.7
22.5
12.1
2.7
-0.8
-7.8
26.5
-13.0

-7.7
-1.7
-0.4
12.8
9.1
-6.0
4.0
-6.9
7.6

0. 5
-6.6
5.3
13.9
-22.5
-6.1
-8.1
-4.8
10.3

3. 3
14.2
8.7
1.5
27.3
-5.0
8.9
5.6

-1.2
-3. 6
-1.7
4.6
7.9
6.6
-4.9
-0.6
-10.1

-4.2
4.8
5.8
1.1
-0.8

7.2
6.1
-2.4
2.9
0.9
30.0
-3.3
0.6
-3.8
3.5

8.8
-0.6
4.0
5.4
1.0
3.9
4.9
7.4
-1.0
1.8
4.9
-1.3
0.3
5.3
7.1
-0.5

-0.7

3.9

0.0
4.8

4.5
2.2

4.6
-0.7

3.8
5.0

1.5
-0.4
6.3
-0.6
-3.8

2.1
5.3
-22.7
-0.1

-2.4
2.5
18.4
-8.4

-0.1
-0.8
-6.7
-6.7

3.1
7.6
-0.9
6.1

4.1
-0.5
1.5
0.0
2.5

-5.4
-0.9
-5.4

4.4
4.4
2.9
1.1
-6.1
2.4
-2.6

-11.0
14.6

7.9
2.0
0.8
4.3

7.7
9.6
2.4
2.9
-3.9
7.9
-0.4
-1.0

48C. CHANGE IN EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS 2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957.
1958!.'.'

-6.7
1.1
6.5
5.7
4.8
-5.5
3.8
2.4
1.0
-9! 4

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967.
..

-4.5
18. 6
-1.3
1.0
-2.7
-1.6
2.2
1.0
0.0
3!9

-0.7
13. 5
-2.2
11.1
-6.1
-1.3
4.0
0.5
— 1.4
" 7.6

0.4
4.1
3.2
5.1
3.4
2.3

-1.6
6.2
1.3
2.7
2.2
3.4

-0.8
5.4
1.5
1.8
2.9
2.5

-2.3
1.2
2.4
2.3
2.0
3.7

1.9
4.1
3.1
-4.2
2.1
4.2
2.5
1.0
0.0
1.6
6.2
7.6
1.7
-5.4
-0.2
-3.3

2.7
5.4
3.2
-2.2
0.4
1.1
2.9
6.4
0.6
5.4
5.9
4.1
11.1
-5.4
3.5
-2.6

4. 0
2.6
4.2
2.8
-1.5
0.9
2.R
2.2
-1.1
3.8
0.6
3.8
4.1
2.4
-1.7
0.4
-5.6

-6.3
8.5
5.2
-2.0
3.0
-1.4
8.0
1.9

-6.9
17.2
3.1
-2.1
-1.1
-4.6
10.4
0.1

-6.8
13.6
1.5
-3.1
-1.8
-3.5
5.8 "
2.7

-10.0

-11.2

-4.2

-0.6
3.9
4.9
1.0
3.2
4.9

1.2
-0.3
10.1
4.0
9.5
3.9

-0.4
1.7
5.3

-1.1
1.5
4.8
-1.3
0.2
5.2
7.1
-0.6
-7.2
3.4
4.3
6.9
4.1
-0.6
1.3
-1.8
1.9

-2.6
4.0
3.2
-0.2
-0.1
4.9
6.1
-5.3
-6.5
-3.7
8.7
12.9
-4.6
-4.3
-4.1
3.9
1.1

0.7

7.4
-6.1
1.8
0.1
2.5
6.7
7.8
-0.2
2.0
4.2
-0.7
1.6
6.0
. 5.3
-0.1
-9.0
6.4
6.0
2.4
1.2
2.5
2.4
0.3
1.4

1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

-2.5

-6.9
15.5
-1.0
-3.3
-2.0
-2.7
6.3
-4.7
-0.1
2.5

-9.3
7.0
9.3
2.2
2.8
-4.1
7.8
-0.5

4.5
3.1
4.1
2. 4
4.6
-2.5
2.9
3.1

3.5
0.5
-1.4

1.6
4.5
9.2
2.5
-5.7

1.3
-2.2

3.4
3. 5
2.5
-12.1
3.8
2.1
-0.3
6.3
2.5
4.1
2.1
0.9
1.7
-7.7
-2.2




88.43
97.17
99.56
103.29
102.41
100.64
106.38
108.29
105.77
104.84
108.62
108.43
110.54
113.23
115.88
119.66
125.37
130.73
132.73
136.59
140.50
137.29
139.36
145.69
150.94
149.92
148.46
152.56
159.45
167.39
170.53
169.55
168.97
163.91

-6.8
13.6
1. 5
-2!9
-1.8
-3.5
6. 0
2.8
-2.4

-0.6
14.2
-2.2
11.8
-6.0
-1.3
4.1
1.2
-1.3

-2.0
3.7
3.0
6.4
-3.1
7.7
4. 6
3.9
-5.9

6.8
0.5
4.2
3.2
. 5.1
3.4
2.4
3.6
2.0
4.2
3.1
-4.2
2.1
4.3
2. 5
2.2
0.1
2.0
6.2
7.8
3.8
-5.3
0.1
-3.1

-5.6
-2.3
1.3
2.4
2.3
2.0
3.7
0.8
3.4
3.5
2.6
-10.9
-0.4
4.0
2.1
-O.*3
6.4
2. 5
4.1
2.1
0.9
1.8
-7.0
-2.2

8.5
-7.6
5.5
-1.2
1.0
8.0
7.6
3.7
2.5
2.3
0.8
11.5
5.8
3.5
3.4
-8! 3
4.6
3.0
2.1
4.8
0.2

3.1
3.6
-3.0

-2.9

5.8

-7.4

-6.9

-3.8

-0. 3

-2.2
15.4
-2.9
1.4
4.2
7.7
—5. 6
6.
'5

0.7
9.9
-4.0
6.9
5.8
3.2
-6. 9
8.1
0.1
-1.1
4.3
0.6

5.8
2.a
3.8

3.0
6.4
-3.5
7.6
4.5
3.9
-6. 0
5.5
8.1
-8.7
5.4
-1.3
1.0
8.0
7.6
3.7
2.3

5.6
4.0
-10.4
5.9
3.8
-1.4
-4. 3
9.
.4
8.8
-4.6
-0.5
0.5
-3.8
7.8
6.6
3.0
1.1

7.0
2.0
3.5
-3.7
6.5
1.3
-0.2
-10.2
7.8
2.7
-0.8
5.6
1.7
5.1
5.2
7.0
-1.3

1.2
-2.8
-1.6
-3.6
7.5
-0.6
-1.9
-1.4
5.8
-0.5
4.0
3.3
4.1
2.9
3.3
3. 2
1.8

2.8
2.1
-4.9

-0.4
-5.0

0.8
10.6

-1.8
1.9

4.9
-0.2
1.3
6.2
1.0
4.2
1.9
-0.2
4.7
-3.1
-4.2

5.9
4.2
-4.0
3.4
2.8
4.2
5.1
-0.1
2.3
-5.1
-5.2

3.4
3.1
-8.7
4.6
3.0
2.1
4.7
0.2
3.0
3.1
-3.2

4.7
3.5
-10.3
9.1
0.5
-0.7
4.0
2.8
4.9
-9.4
3.a

4.1
-0.7
0.6
5.4
6.2
-2.0
-7.6
2.0
6.3
7.4
0.2
-0.8
-0.1
0.8
1.5

3.6
-3.0
1.8
2.8
3.0
2.6
-0.3
2.9
5.5
7.0
5.1
-5.5
1.5
-2.7

-1.9
9.2
-3.9
-0.5
3.5
3.1
-2. 3
6.0
-4. 5
-2.1
3.1
1.5
2.3
2.4
3.7
2.6
2.7
3. 5
2!5
-6.2
0. 1
3.8
1.4
0.0
5.4
1.4
4.0
2.7
1.0
1.6
-3.5
-4.0

3.1
6.8
-6.0
6.8
4.7
1.9
-5.7
7.7
5.7
-4.8
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
6.8
6.7
3. 2
2.4
2.5
-0.'5
2.5
6.1
4.7
3.6
-7.7
5.7
2.1
1.9
4.6
1.0
3.4
-3.8
-1.5

2.4
4.7

90.03
93.62
99.46
101.19
103.57
100.12
104.41
107.37
107.25
103.40
108.22
109.53
109.00
112.5fl
114.79
117.87
123.26
129.22
131.60
135.02
139.48
138.46
138.43
143.63
149.47
150.86
146.79
151.42
156.94
164.54
169.58
169.47
169.94
166.03

-4.6
9.8
3.0
4.4
-2.0
-0.3
5. 7
1.9
-2.6
0.3
4.6
-2.5
3.8
2.5
2.4
4.3
4.6
3.9
1.7
2.9
2.8
-1.2
2.0
4.2
3.8
-1.7
2.8
4.4
5.4
2.3
-0.2
-0.4
-2.1

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-3.9

NOTE: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed
on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
^ h i s series contains revisions beginning with 1978. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1977.

10
0

89.41
95.67
99.44
100.75
103.32
99. 36
105.13
107.01
107.48
103.16
108.37
109.65
109.41
113.24
115.28
118.23
123.54
129.72
131.85
135.84
140.21
137.31
138.38
144.02
150.06
151.41
146.75
151.71
158.09
165.79
170.55
168.17
169.73
165.67

-6.2

-3.2
2.8
0.5
2.9
2.3
4.9
3.0
2.0

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
8.1
7.0
5. 5

-19.8
7.2
-0.4
5.4
8.R
5.3
3.1
6.3
-11.9

-9.1
13.8

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

48C. CHANGE IN EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS '
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT )
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...

III Q

-4.6
10.2
2.4
3.8
-2.0
-0.2
5.6
1.4
-2.5
0.5
3.7
-1.2
2.3
2.6
2.0
4.3
4.7
4. 0
1.4
3.1
2.4
-1.8
2.1
4.2
3.5
-1.8
0.8
2.1
4.4
5.4
1.8
-0.3
-1.5
-1.9

(MAY 1983)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Feb.

Jan.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

-15.9
20.4
25.5
2.2
12.9
4.4
20.8
-3.5
-10.4
1.9
24.7
-4.8
8.9
0.0
9.3
7.1
10.7
10.1
13.2
0.0
7.8
-16.2
15.5
12.9
9.5
0.0
-15.3
37.5
0.0
-11.2
4.2
8.0
-7.3
-9.3
42.2

1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

-9.5
20.0
-9.8
2.2
2.0
11.3
22.7
-5.2
-1.8
-11.0
16.2
-12.4
8.8
18.1
12.4
14.7
3.9
11.4
-4.8
13.4
-1.1
-9.6
19.2
16.2
16.5
-6.3
-1.1
19.7
19.4
16.4
-1.6
-8.2
-13.4
5.5
18.8

-9.6
7.0
-6.0
4.4
6.2
0.0
15.8
7.4
0.0
8.1
25.9
-19.6
24.2
1.5
12.3
2.8
5.2
13.9
-1.2
2.3
-4.2
-11.7
20.2
16.0
0.9
-1.9
2.3
7.8
18.0
19.1
15.7
-22.8
11.7
-8.5
30.4

-14.2
27.8
-22.2
-8.3
-7. 7
13.6
1.8
5.5
-8.8
3.9
5.0
1.7
21.7
-5.8
10.6
12.9
-2.5
-4.6
2.5
-10.8
11.3
-10.8
11.3
8.1
-6.9
-14.8
42.1
4.8
0.9
12.2
-21.0
-29.8
27.5
12.2
14.4

5. 3
24.4
-8.1
11.4
-11.4
13.5
7.5
-17.9
3.8
25.8
3.3
1.7
15.6
-12.8
12.1
12.8
7.8
-14.3
10.3
8.3
-5.2
7.1
8.8
-1.0
0.9
-5.6
29.3
11.7
3.5
0.8
10.3
-20.3
-0.8
1.8

-5.0
21.3
-22.8
29.0
-18.5
13.3
3.7
-5.3
5.7
27.6
-7.8
1.7
15.4
-11.5
-2.8
-3.9
-3.7
-9.2
17.2
7.0
-10.2
4.7
-2.1
4.0
-3.5
-15.1
28.6
10.6
8.1
4.2
-8.6
10.6
-10.3
-5.2

25.7
61.7
-12.3
-6.1
2.1
17.9
13.3
7.5
-1.8
31.7
-4.8
5.2
0.0
13.0
-2.8
12.7
2.5
-3.6
11.4
10.7
-10.3
-7.7
-2.1
11.2
-3.5
-2.9
27.9
5.6
-10.6
-11.6
-10.1
32.1
-2.5
7.3

34.7
30.1
-8.5
15.8
-17.1
-6.0
1.8
1.8
-1.8
26.3
-4.8
0.0
17.1
9.5
5.8
9.7
3.8
-9.3
23.8
-4.4
1.1
-1.1
4.3
16.6
-10.3
-27.0
8.4
-2.7
18.8
6.8
-5.6
32.4
-4.1
0.9

50.7
-13.2
14.2
41.9
-25.7
30.2
7.3
-3.5
-15.4
23.5
3.3
1.7
-4.6
9.5
15.1
16.9
7.8
-11.5
4.8
19.6
5.6
2.3
9.9
15.3
-5.3
-32.0
17.4
4.6
5.2
5.0
0.0
28.3
-23.2
14.0

4.8
-15.1
4.5
-9.7
-2.1
27.0
-13.3
1.8
-12.3
12.9
-9.4
-4.9
18.7
1.5
8.7
1.3
7.7
-7.2
2.4
27.3
-1.1
-5.6
9.8
19.4
0.9
-26.9
14.9
-1.8
7.0
9.4
-20.9
10.7
-18.8
9.1

-11.6
15.7
5.0
5.2
6.3
5.9
20.0
-4.7
-6.5
-6.8
11.2
1.1
3.4
7.3
8.2
8.1
7.5

-11.7
15.6

-11.1
18.0

-6.5
19.4

-5.0
24.5

7.9
34.6

17.2
36.7

2.9
6.9
5.2
19.7
-0.6
-4.2
-0.6
22.2
-12.5
13.7
6.2
11.3
8.1
6.6

-0.7
0.0
8.2
13.1
2.4
-3.6
0.0
15.4
-10.5
18.0
4.1
11.8
10.0
2.1

2.2
-4.6
8.8
8.2
-2.4
-1.8
12.2
10.9
-6.0
20.5
-5.9
11.6
9.4
3.4

9.6
-12.7
13.5
4.3
-6.4
0.0
18.6
0.0
1.7
17.6
-10.1
6.4
7.0
0.4

10.5
-9.7
14.9
8.1
-5.8
2.5
28.3
-3.2
2.9
10.1
-4.4
1.9
6.9
2.1

2.1
9.2
4.8
-10.2
21.3
15.2
12.2
-9.1
-12.3
19.6
9.3
3.4
—0. 3
0.9
-8.1
-3.7
23.9

2.1
5.1
0.7
-12.6
18.3
15.0
8.8
-2.8
-5.0
21.0
12.1
7.2
5.8
-8.5
-3.6
-2.9
30.1

-1.2
1.2
1.8
-10.7
16.8

3.8
-0.4
0.4
-5.5
13.3

9.8
1.1
-1.8
0.0
5.8

12.9
8.7
-8.6
1.2
1.4

3.1
-7.8
12.8
10.5
12.4
15.9
-3. 5
-20.8
7.2
2.7
21.0

-1.8
-7.6
23.4
8.0
7.2
10.5
0 3
-24.4
12.2
1.5

-3.2
-11.9
33.2
9.0
4.1
5.6
—7 3
-14.8
4.3
2.7

-2.1
-8.0
28.6
0.0
-2.4
-3 2
5.2
-4.6
1.2

AVERAGE FOR I ERIOD
-11.7
15.8
3.2
2.9
7.0
5.2
19.8
-0.4
-4.1
-0.3
22.3
-12.3
14.0
6.5
11.3
8.2
6.6
11.8
2.4
5.2
0.8
-12.5
18.3
15.0
9.0
-2.7
-4.7
21.7
12.5
8.1
6.1
-7.7
-3.0
-4.1
30.5

-4.6
24.5
-17.7
10.7
-12.5
13.5
4.3
-5.9
0.2
19.1
0.2
1.7
17.6
-10.0
6.6
7.3
0.5
-9.4
10.0
1.5
-1.4
0.3
6.0
3.7
-3.2
-11.8
33.3
9.0
4.2
5.7
-6.4
-13.2
5.5
2.9

-11.5
16.4
-1.9
2.5
4.4
6.4
17.6
-1.0
-4.8
-2.5
16.3
-7.3
11.7
5.9
10.4
8.7
5.4
10.1
1.0
5.2
2.4
-11.2
18.8
14.5
8.0
-6.6
-1.5
17.0
11.3
8.8

-1.2
26.2
-15.0
7.4
-9.0
12.4
6.9
-4.9
0.2
19.7
2.6
-0.5
16.1
-6.8
6.6
7.8
2.0
-7.0
8.8
3.1
-3.3
-1.4
6.8
5.2
-2.4
-9.2
28.4
8.8
3.8
4.6

27.5
19.2
-4.9
13.9
-13.8
12.3
3.9
1.0
-5.3
25.5
-3.9
1.2
8.1
6.9
5.2
9.4
4.0
-8.3
13.5
8.6
-2.1
-1.8
4.0
14.0
-5.8
-22.0
17.5
2.3
6.2
2.1

12.4
-7.8
5.2
5.5
-6.0
25.7
-1.6
-2.8
-11.5
12.9
-1.9
-3.7
9.9
7.2
5.9
6.4
11.2
-2.6
7.1
12.5
-6.7
9.3
12.0
12.3
-4.9
-22.9
11.2
6.2
1.5
1.5

-9.5
-1.5
-1.3
25.0

-11.3
4.0
1.8

26.3
-10.7
5.3

6.7
-9.4
12.8

12.0
-11.6
7.9
6.2
1.2
0.6
28.5
-5.8
2.3
10.6
3.1
0.0
5.9
0.8

19.2
-15.1
6.0
10.1
-13.2
29.5
0.0
-0.6
-14.0
18.3
-6.4
-3.3
9.7
7.8
8.8
7.2
9.5

6.5
-10.4
5.2
-0.7
-3.5
24.8
-4.1
-1.8
-12.5
8.4
-0.5
-6.0
13.2
5.6
4.7
4.4
11.7

11.5
2.1
4.4
7.0
-1.4
22.7
-0.6
-5.9
-7.9
12.0
1.1
-1.7
6.9
8.2
4.2
7.5
12.5

17.4
4.2
-6.6
-1.5
0.0
10.5
-5.9
-15.6
21.3

13.1
8.2
-1.4
-2.3
3.9
14.3
-6.4
-21.6
17.6

9.9
13.3
1.8
-1.5
8.0
17.1
-5.0
-28.7
13.5

5.2
17.2
-2.9
1.2
10.2
14.4
-1.2
-27.0
11.9

8.5
13.2
-6.0
9.5
12.4
12.8
-6.6
-22.8
7.5

7.6
7.1
-11.1
17.1
13.4
9.6
-6! 8
-18.9
14.1

3.8
-0.3
-5.3
30'.9
-10.5
7.3

10.2
7.1
-9. 3
23.4
-15.8
7.8

3.2
3.9
-11 • 6
15.6
-14.3
9.7

3.7
1.1
— 10.6
5.2
-8.6
9.3

-2.5
-0.5
—0. 8
-0.8
-5.2
19.4

16.6
31.8
-2.1
12.1
-19.4

-15.4
19.0
3.7
7.5
9.8

-10.3
32.7
2.1
-1.9
-1.2

-9.3

-13.7

-9.5

-14.0

-7.3

-14.2

13.7

19.4

-41.7

195l!!!
1952.'!!
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

11.0
4.2
7.8
— 14. 7
14.6
1.8
-5.0
-18.4
22.0
18.3
-3.5
-6.4
1.6
4.7
4.3
8.0
10.2
-5.7
2.2
-12.1
11.7
21.0
10.1
-9.7
-20.2
20.8
4.8
-8.4
-3.2
5.7
5.9
-19.3
17.6

-4.1
20.3
9.8
0. 0
8.0
-1.7
7.1
-21.7
13.3
-4.9
-3.5
12.3
10.1
12.9
8.8
9.4
-7.0
8.5
9.2
0.0
-1.1
4.3
15.3
-6.3
-15.3
15.9
8.8
11.0
0.8
-8.4
3.3
13.8
-4.4

4.3
-2.0
11.8
—11.4
25.7
0.0
-1.7
-15.9
21.3
-9.6
9.4
8.6
4.9
1.5
11.8
14.9
1.2
6.0
6.8
0.0
3.4
13.3
3.8
-1.9
-15.5
7.1
17.0
15.8
15.5
-11.4
0.0
-5.8
9.4

6.4
-4.0
0.0

-2.1
6.3
1.9

2.1
-7.9
-5.4

-11.8
-20.4
3.8

6.5
70.3
-13.8

6.5
19.0
-5.5

— 5. 9
16.2
11.1
-9.8
-19.3
18.9
5.2
3.6
8.5
10.0
14.5
7.1

-4. 0
18.2
-6.8
-6.7
4.0
14.7
-6.5
15.2
0.0
4.8
9.3
8.6

0.0
7.6
0.0
3.5
19.1
3.5
-8.1
19.1
-1.6
4.8
3.0
8.5

—4.0
11.5
-36.0
0.0
21.1
-9.7
-6.6
1.7
6.7
3.2
10.8
12.9

0.0
50.9
0.0
9.9
-30.5
-5.0
12.8
3.3
1.6
9.2
2.7

-6.1
39.9
-12.3
6.3
9.4
13.0
-11.5
11.9
-3.5
-6.7
1.7

26.4
-4.2
4.2
5.9
-20.6

13.3
12.9
-11.6
7.7
-5.2
-3.4
14.6

7.4
-3.4
-17.8
34.1
13.2
-16.0
18.3

7.3
9.0
-19.6
-5.3
56.6
-14.8
6.9

16.1
0.0
0.1
-18.7
18.9
1.3
0.8

9!l
8.3
1.2
1.2
3.4
1.1
-3.2
9.1
6.2
8.8
-7.3
8.5
1.0
11.2
1.7
-1.6
13.5
-6.3
-7.7

-13.5
14.1
7.6
-1.2
6.9
3.2
-22.6
1.1
20.8
9.7
-11.7
4.1
-2.8
7.3
11.2
-0.8
13.4
-15.2
-17.2

26.1
12.5

22.0
12.4
3.7
16.4
4.5
1.1
22.4
13.8
13.4
-8.0
-31.6
6.2
9.9
8.2
11.0
0.8
6.8
-16.3
-1.8

6.4
8.3
10.8
1.5
2.9
6.1
-4.0
4.7
12.9
9.7
-6.0
-17.0
14.6
10.2
6.1
4.4
-4.7
3.1
-3.8
7.5

3.7
7.0
7.8
1.1
-2.2
9.6
8.8
-0.9
7.6
4.9
6.5
6.9
3.2
-2.5
0.8
-7.6

10.1
2.3
4.4
-5.3
-3.2
16.4
-8.1
-8.1
19.1
1.9
2.7
7.7
-3.1
3.5
-2.4
-9.3

0.0
22.3
9.3

-10.1
-9.7
9.1

14.7
9.7

-25.3
4.1

15.4
5.4
8.5

-3.1
9.5

-11.8
0.9

NOTE: These series contain revisions throughout. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month
and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.




6.8
13.5
-4.1
7.3
-6.1
14.2
6.7
-1.9
-5.3
13.9
3.2
-2.6
11.4
3.3
7.0
8.1
5.6
-1.9
7.6
7.3
-2.4
-1.3
10.4
11.5
-1.2
-15.1
13.9
8.6
5.7
4.2
—4. 5
3.0
-4.4
4.7

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-23.2

2.5
9.5
6.7
-4.3
2.2
-3.0
2.9
0.9
8.7
1.9
10.4
9.6
0.0
-10.4
5.0
-13.0

6.8
14.1
-2.8
7.6
-5.6
14.4
7.0
-1.5
-5.6
13.7
5.3
-3.6
12.3
3.2
7.2
8.2
5.9
-2.3
8.6
7.2
-1.9
-1.0
10.2
11.5
-1.6
-14.5
13.5
10.0
6.2
3.8
-3.9
3.9
-3.9
3.9

AVERAGE FOR I'ERIOD

28.6
-1.4
3.0
14.1
-15.5
15.9
-1.8
0.0
-10.0
20.8
-3.8
-1.1
9.9
6.8
9.8
9.1
6.4

1949...

-1.2
9.6
0.0
-4. 3
5.6
6.4
2.9
5.8
8.8
2.9
8.5
0.8
12.8
-20.2
-1.6
7.2

6.5
-10.0
5.3
-0.4
-3.4
25.0
-3.7
-1.7
-12.4
8.9
0.7
-6.0
13.3
5.7
4.8
4.4
11.7
-3.6
8.6
13.6
-5.9
10.4
12.4
12.9
-6.0
-22.8
7.6
6.7
3.8
1.3
-10.0
5.4
-8.2
9.3

7.3
2.1
11.5
4.2
2.2
16.5
-5.2
-7.0
-10.9
-5.0
24.0
-6.6
4.7
3.0
2.8
8.0
14.3
-1.2
14.9
7.9
-4.3
29.7
16.6
10.6
-19.9
-19.6
4.0
9.4
7.0
-3.2
3.5
-3.3
-6.8
12.7

920C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

2.5
4.7
3.3
-3.2
3.4
10.9
-1.9
-1.9
3.2
7.0
6.6
29.0
-15.5
-21.8
-0.8
-9.9
12.2

37.0
26.2
-2.2
17.2
-13.6
14.0
7.5
1.9
-6.3
27.2
-2.1
2.3
4.2
10.7
6.0
13.1
4.7
-8.1
13.3
8.6
-1.2
-2.2
4.0
14.4
-6.4
-20.6
17.9
2.5
4.5
0.1
-5.2
30.9
-9.9
7.4

7.3
-17.0
0.0
4.2
-10.2
31.4
7.4
0.0
-14.1
18.7
-12.4
-6.5
16.6
12.7
2.8
3.9
13.1
-2.5
8.5
5.6
-12.3
7.1
10.9
8.7
0.9
-21.8
4.0
12.5
-2.5
-2.4
-12.7
8.8
0.9
6.2

36.7
22.3
-2.9
15.5
-14.3
13.0
7.4
1.8
-6.6
27.1
-2.2
2.3
3.8
10.7
5.8
13.1
4.7

4.7
-0.5
8 1
24.6
-5.7
0. 9

Annual

3

910C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979.
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

IV Q

II Q | III Q

IQ

910C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

14.0
1.4
-4.3
1.3
12.4
-3.1
12.6
2.3

30. 0
-3.8
29.9
-7.4
0.8
7.0
9.3
-3.8
14.3
-14.6
-6.1
5.4
3.3

0.4
10.7
2.9
12.3
-15.2
15.9
9.3
' 6.2
-16.3
12.2
21.5
-11.4
13.3
1.2

8.9
8.1
7.5
1.3
7.9
3.3
-3.9
3.7
4.8
1.3
1.6
6.9
3.9
8.5
13.1
-0.9
-17.5
0.9
-5.2

9.7
8.0
2.5
5.0
4.2
4.4
-2.5
1.2
10.7
3.2
-5.4
11.7
2.6
6.8
5.4
-0.5
4.8
-2.6
-8.2

11.5
13.0
3.8
12.5
6.9
-1.9
-3.3
8.0
16.3
3.8
-22.9
4.8
7.5
7.0
10.2
-1.0
9.9
-14.4
-6.0

6.3

-4.7
23.1
1.2
12.0
-3.5
1.2
11.6
4.2
-6.1
2.3
9.6
-4.8
8.0
2.9
5.3
9.1
9.3
6.1
5.1
5.5
3.0
-3.4
4.4
11.2
4.5
-8.2
1.6
7.2
8.1
8.7
0.5
-1.9
-3.3
-5.8

(MAY 1983)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

-4.9
9.6

20.7
11.9
2.1
8.6
17.9

-13.7
15.9
5.9
6.1
8.9

920C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963.
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

-14.8
8.9
12.0
7.1

-15.6
17.1
3.5
7.1

-10.8
21.6

-11.7
13.2

-8.9
15.9

2.4
3.5

0.0
0.0

-19.9

-18.7
18.8
0.6
0.6
4.5
5.5

-5.9
16.4
3.0
-1.7
-19.0
17.8
-3.3
3.0
9.8
8. 3
9.5
9.2
8.4
-1.2
6.4
6.4
-1.1
1.9
9.4
5.5
-3.4
-9.6
9.9
10.7
18.4
-0. 5
-14.1
0.8
-1.2
5.5

9.4

20.8
-7.4
3.9
2.2

9!o
11.5

6^
8.2

9.9
2.1
6.0
5.3

10.7

-3.9
10.6
12.8
12.9
-8.0
-22.7
14.2

-4.2

1.2
2.7
6.0

7.8
3.2
2.7

4.5

12.7
9.6

-6.0
-17.0
14.4
10.1
5.6

-0.8
5.3

4.1
-5.0
3.0

-8.4

-4.7

3.4

7.1

4.2

-12.4
36.0
2.8
0.0
-7.1
20.0
1.2

-6.1
-10.9
18.3
-3.9
9.3
5.6
6.5
8^
9.1

7.4
0.8
6.7
3.3

-2.5
4.1

10.2
1.6
0.6

-1.7
5.6

10.6
14.6
3. 3
-17.9
-0.8
-3.1

5.2
25.7

-7.5
9.9

-4.2
-4.9

-8.0

7.7

23.8

41.5

20.8

12.2

-2.7
12.4
-15.8
-1.1
14.5
2.3
-7.1
11.7
1.6
4.3
1.1
10.0
7.8
1.6
8.7
4.8
-2.5
1.8
4.2
4.8
1.9
8.4
3.3
8.5
5.7
5.2
-11.3
1.4
-4.8

-1.4

0.7
6.9
3.0
-4.0
14.2
-15.4
-6.1

4.9
7.5

-14.0
-5.0

12.1
10.0
7.2
-13.7
17.4
1.2
-8.9

15.8
9.3
5.9
-16.4
11.0
18.9
-11.6

3.3

2.2

2.7

1.1

<
).7
7.9

1.0
8.3
4.2
3.3
4.2
2.9

5.9
11.6
2.9
7.0
6.5
-2.1
-12.2
6.4
13.7
9.4
-15.1
5.6
4.2
8.0
7.0
-1.8
12.1
-11.2
-8.3

10.0
13.0
3.7
12.1
6.9
-2.1
-5.0
7.9
16.3
3.5
-23.3
4.8
7.2
6.9
10.2
-1.1
9.9
-14.4
-6.4

-11.9
39.9

-2.0
-3.3
13.9
1.2
-4.5
0.0
12.1
-3.3
12.4
2.2
6.5
8!8
8.1
7.3
1.2
7.9
3.3
-3.9
3.7
4.6
1.3
1.6
6.9
3.9
8.5
12.6
-1.6
-17.6
0.8
-5.6

6.3

-1.2
1.2

16.6
-13.4
-6.6
11.0
2.7
3.2
7.6
8.0
6.8
5.4
6.2
6.3

-2.9
-1.1
7.4
0.9

-2.8
11.7
2.9
6.5
8.1
0.0

-3.3
1.1

-10.0

I. 5

1.9
1.2
1.4
-2.5
1.1
10.7
2.8
-5.5
11.6
2.6
6.8
5.4
-0. 5
4.6
-2.7
-8.2

930C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE ] NDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT

1949...
1950..
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972!.!
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

6.2

-5.8

0.0

6.2

-13.9

-8.8
28.4
2.4
11.9
-11.8

12.8
-3.0
25.4
21.3
7.0
-11.6
-6.6
12.8
11.4
-20.7
-10.6
-4.7
-7.5
14.0
-1.5
-7.0
13.3

24.3
12.6
6.9
-19.0

17.4
-4.6
27.3
-19.4
-8.7
28.7
15.3
-21.8
0.0
4.8
-12.0

14.1
17.9
32.2
-8.3
14.6
30.5
5.4
-44.0
39.3
22.2
-7.7

26.4
23.2
6.6
-12.4
17.0
9.8
0.0
-21.6
48.1
12.9
-12.2

0.0

3.1

7.9

12.8
13.4
0.0
4.9
11.8
-1.1
1.1

1.3
10.5
2.4
3.6
14.2
4.3
-21.1

2.3
4.1

7.0

21.9

-6.9
-34.6
-1.9
22.9
-1.6
-4.8
3.1

1.3
0.0
2.4
7.1
37.4
—18. 7

-15i7
17.3

1.1
-1.0
-3.4
1.2
24.3
12.9

1.0
-12.0
17.7

-13.5

-1.7
13.4
-11.8
6.7
3.1

10.1
12.3
3.7
7.5
8.3
0.0
—3. 3
-2.3
13.2
-2.1
-18.1
-5.6
5.9
2.2
5.2
8.9
-9.4
-7.4
-1.0

7.1
3.9
8.8

7.5
5.8

-1.2
3.5
3.2
— 5. 4
2. 3
3.4
-8.1
-4.0
-5.6
-1.1
-8! 7
33.5
-15.7
-1.9
-10.9

10.0
13.6
-1.2
10.0
13.2
-13.7
—11. 5
3.5
22.0
23.3
-29.5
-5.7
5.9
-7.2
33.6
21.2
0.0
7.9
-12.9

4*. 7
2.2
12.0
-22.3
7.2
5.9
13.7
-6.7
-21.9
37.5
-7.4

9! 5
12.7
4.2
-36.6
-5.7
13.3
10.0
13.7
-32.0
2.0
-2.8

0.0

-8.9
13.7
2.3
2.1
-4.3
6.9

36.7
5.4

-12.5
21.1
-3.0
-6.3
7.9
-6.9
-2.6
7.7
1.2

-3.5
1.1

-5.1

24.4
-7.9
9.9

-10.8
2.2

14.3
3.1

-9.0
10.4
0.0
7.0
6.8

-1.8
10.0
-8.1
-11.5

5.4
0.0

-18.6
15.7
28.0
-11.6
5.8
0.5
17.1
10.9
4.6

10.3
5.3

-7.2
7.3

14.5
12.7
-3.0
-25.8
10.2
9.9
1.5
5.3

1.1
7.4

-15.8
5.2

0.0

-6.4
3.6

-1.1
6.5
0.0
-30.2
1.0

-6.5

Annual

-8! 8
15.2
1.8
0.6
-19.2
15.3
6.0
-1. 3
6.1
8.3
9.6
9.7
0.7
5.0
5.9
-3.1
5.7
11.6
9.3
-5.8
-16.4
12.8
9.5
9.1
2.1
-6.6
3.0
-4.8
5.3

-11.5
36.2
0.3
-3.3
1.1
-4.4
15.4
-4.5
-3.9
1.2
10.9
-4.8
11.1
3.1
8.3
9.1
7.5
1.2
7.8
3.8
-3.0
3.2
6.3
2.6
1.4
4.5
4.3
9.2
11.0
2. 3
-15.6
0.5
-4.5

-1.9
27.2
-1.1
24.3
—7.9
1.4
6.9
8.7
-3.6
13.6
-14.3
-5.9
8.6
2.7
6.1
8.1
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.5
-5.4
0.7
10.8
2.3
-5.8
11.2
1.8
6.8
6.8
-0.8
3.8
-3.2
-9.9

3.9
5.5
2.1
13.9
-15.6
15.3
8.2
4.4
-16.2
14.7
16.0
-10.7
10.1
1.4
11.0
11.8
3.7
9.8
6.2
-3.8
-3.3
9.6
14.2
3.3
-21.4
6.9
7.1
5.5
7.5
-0.6
9^
-13.8
-3.2

-5.8
21.2
1.8
10.2
-3.4
0.9

11.4
2.6

-5.8
2.6
7.0

-3.8
7.1
3.3
4.9
8.4
9.6
6.4
4.1
6.0
2.6

-3.7
4.8

10.8
4.4

-7.9
1.6
6.5
7.7
8.6

0. 8
-2.2
-3.4
-5.6

OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-14.1
6.4
2.6
-8.8
8.8
-12.5
64.7
-19.7
56.5
-12.6
40.6
-11.5
-3.2

-11.6
53.2

31.7
46.6
13.4
-4.5

-14.1
37.0
13.3
14.9

-4.4
31.1
1.8
-8.0
9.9
21.0
0.0
-4.8

0.0
27.8
11.5
14.2
-3.7
1.6
9.9
-7.9

6.1

6.8

-14.1
0.9
12.9
4.0
-19.0
-2.2
10.5
-7.0

-2.6
2.2
19.3
12.2
22.0
-13.4
7.6
23.0
6.9
-29.1
29.1
13.3
-10.6

-8.6
16.9
7.2
-2.2
8.1
-7.8
26.8
12.4
28.7
3.6
48.4
-15.9
-1.5

8.0
23.5
19.2
9.2
4.2
-2.2
19.6
3.3
5.5
8.2
1.8
7.7
-2.0

22.9

4.5

1.6

3.7

6.8

11.2

9.7
2.5
-2.4
1.2
7.9
-1.1

9.6
17.2
-5.8
7.2
2.2
-7.2

5.3
3.7
0.0

0.0
3.2
10.6
-13.8
-4.5
8.0

-3.4

10.2
5.8
4.2
2.9
6.3
13.5
—9.1
-5.2
11.3
-3.0
-7.7
-4.9
2.0

8.0
12.5
0.4
6.2
13.1
-3.5
-10 5
5.9
12.3
13.2
-29.5
-1.4
8.4

4.9
11.7
-4.7
-20.6

-1.9
33.2
-1.0
-16.0

3.1
14.5
-12.4
2.8
-8.5

13.5
-10.9
13.2
-0.8

33.7
7.0
-4.5

0.0
45.4
10.6
3.1

6.3
20.3
19.0
8.8

-4.0
14.2
21.6
13.0

2.7
-5.0
20.4
10.9

-7.9
33.0
-0.6
21.4
9.3
46.1
-16.1
-1.1

-3.7
22.2
10.9
9.3
12.9
31.1
-9.8
-2.7

-2.2
18.8
3.1
5.1
7.8
0.5
7.6
-2.2

-3.0
13.0
6.2
0.0
0.6
-7.1

6.2

10.9
3.3
5.4
6.3
-0.8
4.0
5.2
-4.5
-3.7
0.4

10.9
0.9
8.2
7.6
-2.8
7.2
5.2
-8.8
-3.7
-0.4

6.1
1.9

-12.6
-0.5
12.0
2.9
-19.2
0.0
7.4
-4.9
4.6
2.2
6.2
3.4

-2.0
-0.7
18.6
11.3
18.7
-12.5
7.8
24.9
6.5
-27.3
25.6
12.2
-10.0
8.2
4.0
2.4
7.1
11.1
1.3

-6.1
15.3
9.3
-0.7
7.5
-8.5
28.1
5.1
22.2
-1.7
42.8
-11.3
-3.3
6.5
6.9
9.8
4.6
5.2
-1.2

0.8
26.6
17.1
8.3
3.3
-3.0
18.0
6.7
4.8
7.1
8.2
0.9
-0.3
6.2
9.3
2.0
6.3
6.9
-1.6

8.1
7.2
-9.9
-3.6

10.5
-2.9
-6.9
4.0

6.2
0.1
2.3
-1.7

8.1
-9.3
-4.9
1.4

8.8
-8.0
2.3
6.9
8.3
11.2
-1.3
4.0
-12.5

8.7
-4.8
-0.8
6.5
9.3
4.6
12.6
-1.0
i-14.9

1.1
-9.4
-4.6
2.4
7.2
6.9
12.4
-6.3
1.5
-9.1

8.8
-23.9
-0.5
5.9
6.5
6.2
-11.3
9.8
-2.4

4.2
-12.0
2.3
7.1
5.6
8.9
-17.4
6.6
-10.3

8.5
-6.4
0.0
8.5
10.6
5.7
6.9
2.2
-14.7

5.2
0.0

-6.5
8.8

20.1
24.3
35.8
83.4
-33.3
5.0

7.8
18.6
14.2
6.4
-8.0
8.6
6.8
6.5

4.6
13.5
-2.6

-4.5
0.0
1.0
-11.6
0.0
11.9

-1.1
13.6
15.3
-10.7
8.5
5.7

2.3
1.1
1.0
1.1
3.5
6.9

7.1
-12.1
8.1
-16.9

17.9
-10.4
14.5
-8.5

11.1
-3.9
2.9
-7.6

0.0
6.2
3.6
5.6

-5.1

6.3

-13.2
31.0
17.3
-2.2
0.0

-3.5
10.4
18.3
-17.3
13.3

13.6
5.5

-17.6

9.5

-5!5
15.0

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-3.3
46.0

-10.3
32.7

II Q 1 III Q

9.9

15.0
-1.1
-1.1
4.5

4.4
-7.8
26.0
12.1

3.0
4.7
-0.2
2.9
4.5
-1.2
6 ft
-3.7
9.5
5.4
-9.6
4.0
5.5
8.3
-17.6
7.9
-10.6

8.2
7.8
-2.7
7.3
5.2
-8.6
-3 7
-0.4
4.7
8.9
-4.6
-0.7
6.5
4.7
13.7
-0.9
-14.7

0.3
8.7

17.9
7.8
1
1
1
1
1

0
9
3
2
1
9
9

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

7
4
7
9
3
1
3

3.9
- 5
6
5
4
7

.
.
.
.
.

3
9
8
9
4

7.7
0.4
4.8
7.3
0.0
— 4 . 1
- 0 . 8

9.5
6.1
- 1 2 .
- 0 .
5 .
8 .
7 .
- 0 .

8
7
6
2
4
1

1.9
- 5 . 8

930C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVEP 3-MONTH SPANS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT

1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

4.1

-2.0
11.8
17.6
12.0
-6.7
-2.2
5.5
0.0
-17.0
1.3

-1.0
1.1
5.1
3.1
4.0
9.7
6.2

1
- 1
-

-

2
3
9
3
3
6
8
2
2
3

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

4
3
6
2
4
6
6
8
3
4

1.9
9.9
9.2
2.6
2.0
2.6
- 1 0 . 4

4.1
-7.9

26.0
11.8
8.6
-14.2
0.8

12.7
3.7
-20.1
-2.5
9.9

-7.1
5.0
1.5
4.9
10.1
5.8
4.1
2.8
6.3
12.3
-9.4
-5.5
11.1
-3.1
-8.0
-4.9
1.9

11.0
2.7

13.7
-12.4
2.6

-8.6

0.0
-5.0
23.3
3.2
15.0
-16.8
0.0
17.7

0.0
-1.0
18.6
8.2
21.6
-15.7
3.8
26.9

-20.5
1.3
13.4
-8.6
3.8
2.1
9.6
9.0
9.9
3.7
5.3
8.3
-3.8
-6.8
1.2
12.6
3.5
-17.8
-5.6
3.5
0.7
8.7

-24.5
13.8
13.2
-10.5
7.3
2.1
2.9
9.9
10.2
2.4
4.5

20.8
-8.6
-0.6
-8.4

-4.1
-5.4
3.5
8.3

-19.3
-1.5
3.5
4.4
4.4
8.1
5.1

-0.6

-3.0
2.1
19.2

-3.0
-3.1
17.9

-9.6
-2.0
13.8

21.5
-13.5
7.0
22.6

12.9
-8.4
12.7
25.1

5.8
-9.8
27.2
6.4

-8.8
14.1
7.1
-2.3
8.0
-7.9
24.2
9.6

-30.0
27.3
13.1
-10.6

-27.3
35.7
10.2
-8.8

-15.7
36.1
-1.0
-7.3

1.3
46.2
-16.9
-1.6

3.6
4.4
7.9
12.5
0.4

6.3
0.0
3.6
10.5
1.2

7.9

6.7
7.8
2.7

6.1
13.1
-3.8
-11.0
5.9
12.0
12.9
-29.7
-1.5
8.3
5.1
12.3
-13.7
11.9
-1.0

1.6
8.9
-0.7
-4.4
2.7
9.9
5.3
-22.8
1.6
5.9
10.0
2.0
-28.2
12.3
-5.6

7.4
4.1
8.2
-1.6
2.8
1.8

-1.1
-0.4
9.1
1.7
-19.3
-0.8
7.8
7.3
6.8

-25.3
3.6

-9.0

-0.4
2.8
-1.4
6.6
-3.7
5.2
-9.6
3.9
5.4
6.1
8.1
-18.1
7.7
-10.8

0.0

14.1
6.9
2.9
-1.6
4.4
0.0
1.5

-1.1
5.6

-7.2
3.9
8.1
3.5

11.9
-8.9
8.4

-11.1

4.8
3.9

-1.2
9.3
14.0
-14.6
-7.3
4.3
8.0

-6.3
-1.5
12.0
14.2
1.3
9.4
3.6

-16.8

NOTE: These series contain revisions throughout. Percent changes are centered w i t h i n the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month
and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages o f the centered changes.

12
0



- 1 . 2

9.1
1 6
7
1 0
- 9
1 3
1 2
9
- 1 0
1 9

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

3
4
3
1
4
2
1
3
2

2.3
- 4
6
5
5
6
7
0
4
8
- 1
- 4
0
8
5
- 1 2
- 0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

6
4
6
1
9
6
5
5
2
2
8
0
4
6
9
7

6.0
7.5
6.9
- 2 . 4

3.0
- 6 . 5

(MAY 1983)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

15. PROFITS (AFTER TAXES) PER DOLLAR OF SALES,
ALL MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS 1 (CENTS)
5.6
5.6
5.7
4.3
4.4
4.3
5.2
5.4
5.3
3.6
5.0
5.0
3.8
4.6
4.4
5.1
5.6
5.8
5.0
5.1
5.1
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.7
5.9
3.9
5.5
5.3
5.0
5.8
5.5
4.9
3.9

1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

4.7
6.7
5.1
4.1
4.3
4.6
5.4
5.4
4.9
3.7
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.7
5.6
4.4
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.7
4.5
5.0
3.7

5.5
6.9
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
5.5
5.0
4.7
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
5.3
5.6
5.6
4.9
5.1
4.8
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
5.7
4.9
5.3
5.0
5.5
5.8
4.6
4.8
3.5

AVERAGE
5.5
6.3
4.4
4.4
4.0
4.7
5.6
5.1
4.3
4.8
4.4
3.9
4.7
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.1
5.1
4.5
3.6
4.1
4.5
5.7
4.9
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.7
5.4
4.8
4.4
2.8

971. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, M A N U F A C T U R I N G ACTUAL 3 <§) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

68
89
60
77
50
76
82
65
42
83
74
52
81
71
80
82
88
71
78
81
66
68
82
88
84
50
80
80
83
85
74
68
52

76
78
62
76
54
84
76
67
50
84
65
62
77
74
84
84
88
72
78
80
64
70
84
90
82
54
80
83
86
81
63
70
50

58
86
68

80
68
70
72
56
82
77
...
62
79
60
72
76
76
83
88
84
69
79
76
60
70
86
88
74
64
78
82
86
73
60
62
52

58
66
84
72
53
68
74
52
75
72
74
82
86
82
72
80
72
55
74
84
86
59
71
78
82
86
78
60
62
56

972. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS, MFG. AND T R A D E —
ACTUAL 3 <g) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

54
82
38
60
49
71
72
59
38
74
68
48
73
64
74
78
82
65
70
70
61
63
74
78
74
52
76
71
73
78
62
60
53

62
69
45
64
52
74
70
58
42
78
58
52
72
68
78
80
82
65
73
74
56
64
76
79
76
53
74
74
76
74
54
66
52

78
57
48
56
52
76
69
...
51
76
52
62
70
70
79
80
78
64
72
68
55
66
79
76
71
58
72
74
78
70
57
60
52

5.3
6.4
4.8
4.3
4.3
4.5
5.4
5.2
4.8
4.1
4.8
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.2
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.1
4.8
4.0
4.1
4.3
5.0
5.5
4.6
5.4
5.2
5.4
5.7
4.8
4.8
3.5

AVERAGE
78
76
71
56
82
77
56
80
63
65
76
74
82
85
86
71
79
77
61
70
84
88
75
60
79
82
85
79
64
66
52

AVERAGE
40
81
50

54
62
78
66
46
60
72
50
68
68
70
79
83
76
69
74
66
56
70
80
76
63
66
74
76
78
72
56
60
-54

69
64
58
54
75
69
48
75
57
58
71
68
7R
80
80
66
72
70
57
66
77
77
71
57
74
74
76
74
57
62
53

Year

II Q

IQ

1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

2.383
2.431
2.784
2.816
2.919
2.857
2.959
3.097
3.270
3.265
3.400
3.598
3.561
3.770
3.875
4.016
4.113
4.309
4.461
4.506
4.574
4.687
4.783
4.867
5.041
5.170
5.313
5.679
5.817
5.974
6.390
6.538
6.815
6.685

2.347
2.479
2.825
2.795
2.927
2.848
3.002
3.132
3.286
3.257
3.470
3.598
3.611
3.802
3.896
4.043
4.167
4.328
4.443
4.564
4.618
4.706
4.759
4.909
5.074
5.258
5.363
5.677
5.906
6.157
6.355
6.595
6.752
6.742

Annual

IV Q

2.373
2.609
2.846
2.812
2.915
2.856
3.053
3.168
3.336
3.320
3.432
3.577
3.650
3.849
3.931
4.033
4.208
4.402
4.442
4.568
4.685
4.730
4.764
4.912
5.131
5.313
5.481
5.718
5.988
6.213
6.394
6.516
6.883
6.734

AVERAGE

2.354
2.689
2.831
2.882
2.870
2.894
3.095
3.217
3.316
3.377
3.503
3.557
3.716
3.862
3.961
4.020
4.256
4.474
4.467
4.552
4.681
4.682
4.808
4.944
5.217
5.330
5.587
5.753
5.967
6.327
6.461
6.596
6.879
6.563

971. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, M A N U F A C T U R I N G ANTICIPATED 3 ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

65
82
70
74
64
72
79
76
80
77
67
83
69
80
84
86
82
80
82
76
76
82
88
86
72
82
80
82
80
66
74
60

71
82
72
...
58
82
80
76
58
82
81
67
82
76
82
86
88
82
83
85
71
78
86
90
80
59
84
86
83
84
75
74
68

75
83
66
...
63
80
76
68
61
82
76
77
82
76
84
84
88
80
82
83
74
85
88
88
85
70
88
88
88
80
57
76
64

52
84
72
72
72
65
85
75
71
72
82
70
76
74
78
83
85
84
81
81
80
74
81
88
87
80
73
86
84
86
72
62
76
60

972. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS, MFG. AND T R A D E —
A N T I C I P A T E D 3 ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

50
74
54
56
56
66
75
68
72
73
60
78
68
77
80
84
75
74
78
70
71
76
82
80
68
76
78
79
78
66
70
61

60
72
50
...
58
74
72
69
52
77
75
64
79
72
80
84
86
74
80
79
66
74
82
85
74
58
80
80
82
82
73
69
66

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user,
^ h i s series contains revisions beginning with 1979. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1959. 3 This is a copyrighted
series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.




III Q

107. RATIO, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT TO MONEY SUPPLY M l 2
(RATIO)

67
74
48
...
58
76
71
63
54
78
74
74
78
72
82
83
84
76
78
77
70
80
84
84
79
66
84
84
84
80
59
74
66

36
78
58
49
64
60
78
70
64
62
79
66
73
71
76
81
84
82
76
73
76
66
78
83
80
77
67
82
82
83
70
61
72
60

2.364
2.552
2.822
2.826
2.908
2.864
3.027
3.154
3.302
3.305
3.451
3.582
3.634
3.821
3.916
4.028
4.186
4.378
4.453
4.548
4.640
4.701
4.778
4.908
5.116
5.268
5.436
5.707
5.920
6.168
6.400
6.561
6.832
6.681

AVERAGE
*74
80
70
62
80
78
73
*82
76
72
80
75
82
85
86
81
82
82
74
80
86
88
83
68
85
84
85
79
65
75
63

AVERAGE
64
70
50
*58
74
72
66
76
72
68
76
72
80
83
84
75
76
78
68
76
81
83
78
65
80
81
82
78
65
71
63

(MAY 1983)

103

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

III Q

NQ

. IQ

IV Q

Annual

973. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET SALES, MFG. AND TRADE—
ACTUAL < ) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
§
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

39
60
90
54
72
50
76
80
64
40
82
72
49
80
71
80
82
88
71
79
80
70
70
82
86
82
57
82
80
84
87
73
70
63

43
69
79
60
74
50
84
78
67
46
87
63
58
78
74
83
84
88
70
82
84
66
72
82
89
84
58
81
81
86
84
62
74
58

40
88
67
67
71
53
82
78
...
58
82
58
70
78
76
84
87
85
72
82
78
64
74
85
86
80
66
80
84
88
82
68
71
57

AVERAGE
47
88
68

42
76
76

61
64
84
74
52
68
78
52
72
76
75
84
86
82
74
84
76
62
76
86
85
70
70
80
85
88
82
66
68
60

*70
54
82
78

974. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO. OF EMPLOYEES, MFG. AND TRADE—
ACTUAL ©
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980.....
1981
1982
1983

44
50
64
55
56
48
54
58
54
40
56
56
47
56
54
55
60
65
58
57
59
54
48
56
63
58
44
57
60
62
62
58
51
48

44
56
62
56
58
46
56
57
53
44
60
54
50
55
56
58
61
66
58
60
60
54
52
58
62
59
44
58
59
64
60
54
53
46

44
64
58
58
58
49
58
58
...
48
59
52
54
56
55
59
64
63
58
58
58
51
53
62
60
56
48
58
61
64
60
53
52
46

47
48
84
54
53
51
54
68
63
43
62
66
50
64
60
64
68
74
68
68
71
66
62
64
73
78
58
62
74
76
80
67
62
58

44
53
80
48
60
48
62
68
59
46
68
60
50
62
62
66
71
74
66
68
70
61
62
66
76
79
52
65
72
76
76
61
64
52

37
68
72
50
58
47
62
68
...
48
64
56
56
62
62
67
72
73
65
70
70
62
62
72
75
78
56
68
74
76
73
64
62
52

AVERAGE

48
64
58

45
58
60

51
52
60
57
49
49
58
50
53
55
56
60
64
62
58
60
58
50
55
60
60
49
52
58
62
63
58
51
52
46

*56
49
57
58

975. DIF. INDEX OF LEVEL OF INVENTORIES, MFG. AND TRADE—
ACTUAL < > (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
g
1949.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

53
82
61
62
78
74
83
85
86
72
82
80
66
73
84
86
79
63
81
82
86
84
67
71
60

*45
58
53
51
56
55
58
62
64
58
59
59
52
52
59
61
56
47
58
60
63
60
54
52
46

AVERAGE

39
78
58

42
62
74

52
50
65
65
53
50
62
54
56
61
63
65
73
74
64
70
68
58
60
71
76
69
57
69
75
78
75
60
63
52

56
49
61
67
47
64
59
53
62
62
66
71
74
66
69
70
62
62
68
75
76
56
66
74
76
76
63
63
54

Year

| 1 Q

HQ

1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

58
86
68
75
65
72
82
77
84
80
68
86
72
82
85
88
80
82
86
74
78
83
88
86
75
82
82
86
85
72
78
65

67
85
70
...
57
82
81
79
58
87
84
66
84
82
86
87
90
82
86
88
73
80
88
90
78
62
84
86
87
88
80
76
70




IV Q

74
82
68
...
62
84
79
72
61
86
81
82
86
78
86
88
90
82
86
86
78
86
90
90
86
73
90
90
92
84
63
80
72

45
86
71
73
74
63
86
78
74
72
86
72
82
78
80
86
89
86
82
84
83
76
84
88
88
82
74
87
86
90
78
67
80
65

974. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO. OF EMPLOYEES, MFG. AND TRADE—
ANTICIPATED < > (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
g
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

50
62
54
57
53
54
57
56
54
56
52
56
54
55
58
62
60
60
60
58
55
58
60
61
53
56
59
59
60
54
56
50

52
62
56
...
46
56
56
56
50
56
56
52
56
55
56
58
63
60
60
60
56
58
60
63
56
48
60
60
60
60
56
54
51

54
62
54
...
50
56
56
53
50
56
56
54
57
54
57
59
63
60
58
60
56
58
61
62
60
54
62
61
62
58
48
56
51

46
59
57
56
54
48
58
56
54
51
57
52
54
54
55
58
59
62
60
60
59
54
56
60
60
58
54
60
59
62
56
50
55
48

975. DIF. INDEX OF LEVEL OF INVENTORIES, MFG. AND TRADE—
ANTICIPATED ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

38
66
54
52
50
50
60
60
57
60
52
60
56
60
64
66
65
63
66
62
60
61
69
70
64
60
65
67
70
62
63
54

42
65
47
...
46
58
61
59
48
62
60
53
63
60
63
64
68
66
66
68
61
62
66
72
67
54
64
68
70
74
70
61
56

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. These are copyrighted series used
by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

104

III Q

973. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET SALES, MFG. AND T R A D E ANTICIPATED ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)

50
69
47
...
48
57
61
54
48
63
58
57
62
58
63
64
69
63
67
66
64
65
66
72
72
50
70
72
73
71
53
66
56

32
57
56
45
54
47
62
58
56
52
62
54
56
58
60
63
66
69
62
66
66
58
65
66
70
72
54
68
70
74
68
56
64
50

Annual
AVERAGE
71
81
70
62
81
80
76
86
79
74
84
78
85
87
88
82
84
86
"75
82
87
89
83
71
86
86
89
84
70
78
68

AVERAGE

54
61
55
49
56
56
55
56
55
53
56
54
56
58
62
60
60
60
56
57
60
61
59
52
60
60
61
58
52
55
50

AVERAGE
47
64
48
*48
57
60
57
61
58
54
61
58
62
64
6B
64
66
66
61
63
65
71
70
56
66
69
71
71
60
64
54

(MAY 1983)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

III Q

II Q

1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

41
92
50
53
44
50
70
70
52
58
58
52
54
50
56
58
70
70
74
82
80
74
70
82
92
81
80
86
87
92
90
88
72

52
86
46
58
44
56
68
64
52
60
55
50
53
54
54
61
72
70
76
80
80
76
72
84
96
78
82
86
88
93
88
86
68

82
73
52
60
47
64
72
...
53
60
54
54
54
55
56
64
78
72
78
82
78
68
72
86
94
78
80
87
90
92
90
84
63

AVERAGE

32
92
63
51
48
68
74
60
56
58
52
52
53
55
56
65
76
73
80
82
75
70
74
90
89
78
82
87
91
94
90
82
60

977. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, WHOLESALE TRADEACTUAL ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

44
94
48
48
46
53
71
74
54
62
57
51
55
52
60
63
78
74
81
85
87
85
80
90
96
80
84
87
89
96
92
90
72

61
85
42
58
43
60
68
71
54
64
56
51
52
56
56
60
76
74
82
85
85
86
81
89
96
79
80
86
92
95
90
88
67

90
78
58
60
48
69
79
...
59
65
54
54
50
60
58
68
82
80
82
86
86
73
82
92
94
81
80
88
93
95
92
84
68

29
94
6R
50
50
70
78
66
62
64
52
54
54
58
60
70
78
82
85
85
84
74
80
96
91
81
88
90
94
96
90
82
61

978. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, RETAIL TRADEACTUAL < > (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
§
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

38
94
44
53
44
49
65
64
54
62
54
52
55
52
56
62
78
74
88
91
86
86
73
90
92
80
86
90
91
94
92
94
78

49
82
43
52
42
55
66
64
52
65
58
50
52
54
56
61
78
80
88
90
86
84
78
87
97
84
86
86
94
95
91
90
75

85
76
52
56
44
66
72
...
58
62
56
57
54
58
60
67
84
84
88
90
85
73
79
93
96
86
92
92
94
94
94
86
74

Year

Annual

IV Q

976. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, MANUFACTURING-ACTUAL ( ) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
g

*67
78
56
46
60
71
53
59
55
52
54
54
56
62
74
71
77
82
78
72
72
86
93
79
81
86
89
93
90
85
66

AVERAGE
72
81
54
47
63
74
*57
64
55
52
53
56
58
65
78
78
82
85
86
80
81
92
94
80
83
88
92
96
91
86
67

AVERAGE
23
95
64

50
52
64
70
58
59
59
54
54
54
61
58
70
80
87
92
89
86
74
81
93
92
88
86
92
93
96
90
86
68

67
79
53
46
58
68
56
62
56
53
54
56
58
65
80
81
89
90
86
79
78
91
94
84
88
90
93
95
92
89
74

II Q

IQ

1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

34
90
62
56
50
66
69
58
62
56
57
53
57
58
65
74
74
75
79
76
68
73
86
86
75
78
82
86
87
88
80

46
88
58
...
50
54
70
67
55
60
62
55
56
54
58
60
68
72
76
79
76
76
72
80
89
76
78
81
84
88
90
90
76

Annual

IV Q

46
82
50
...
46
55
66
64
52
60
58
56
56
56
58
61
72
68
75
78
78
75
72
83
92
68
80
86
87
88
83
89
68

AVERAGE
28
66
70
50
58
48
60
66
62
54
64
56
54
52
56
57
62
68
70
76
80
75
75
70
82
90
74
80
82
87
86
86
84
66

977. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, WHOLESALE TRADEANTICIPATED ©
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

30
92
68
56
53
51
71
72
62
65
55
59
52
61
62
68
76
78
79
77
80
70
80
88
87
80
80
84
88
90
90
82

44
90
56
...
50
54
70
74
62
66
68
55
58
55
60
62
72
73
82
80
80
82
78
86
94
74
82
86
90
90
92
89
78

48
84
50
...
45
56
68
66
54
64
60
56
59
55
59
64
76
69
78
80
82
82
80
88
92
70
82
86
87
92
87
89
72

22
73
60
50
56
48
64
68
70
59
69
56
56
54
54
58
60
72
74
78
80
80
82
74
84
91
76
84
84
90
90
88
84
68

978. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, RETAIL TRADEANTICIPATED ( ) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
§
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

24
90
63
55
50
48
66
69
58
62
55
57
52
58
58
63
76
81
84
80
80
67
76
87
88
81
86
90
90
90
90
82

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. These are copyrighted series used
by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.




III Q

976. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, MANUFACTURING—
ANTICIPATED ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)

35
94
52
...
48
48
67
66
55
62
60
55
57
54
60
59
70
76
84
84
80
80
74
85
89
75
82
84
88
92
93
90
81

42
88
44
...
44
53
66
60
52
62
56
55
55
54
57
60
76
72
86
84
81
80
74
88
92
72
84
89
92
92
84
92
76

12
65
64
45
52
42
55
66
64
52
66
57
52
55
57
57
62
75
78
87
86
80
80
74
83
93
79
86
88
92
90
90
87
72

48
82
55
55
67
66
60
60
55
55
55
58
60
68
71
75
78
77
76
70
80
89
76
78
82
85
87
86
88
72

AVERAGE
49
82
56
49
56
69
70
65
62
56
58
54
60
62
72
73
79
80
80
82
76
84
91
77
82
84
88
90
89
88
75

AVERAGE
42
84
51
*46
51
66
65
62
59
54
56
54
58
60
71
76
84
84
80
80
72
83
90
78
83
87
90
91
89
90
78

(MAY 1983)

105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

Year

and
quarter

Implicit price
deflator, gross
nonfarm business
product*
(Index: 1977=100)

Unit labor cost,
all persons, nonfarm
business sector1
Components of BCD series 26—
(Index: 1977=100)

III

1981
I Q....
II Q . . .
Ill Q..
IV Q...

136.5
138.9
142.3
145.5

139.1
141.9
145.1
149.0

146.6
148.1
149.8
151.5

151.6
153.5
154.7
156.7

rl53.3

Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm
business product, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)

157.2

1982
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...

Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)

1983
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...

Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars
Year
and
month

Manufacturing
(Ratio)

Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)

2

Retail trade
(Ratio)

1982
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

2.15
2.09
2.09
2.11
2.05
2.04

1.43
1.40
1.38
1.44
1.38
1.41

1.45
1.41
1.42
1.42
1.37
1.44

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..

2.05
2.07
2.06
2.15
2.12
2.08

1.44
1.44
1.47
1.50
1.46
1.47

1.43
1.46
1.46
1.45
1.39
1.40

1.99
rl.98
pi. 93
(NA)

1.40
rl.41
pi.40
(NA)

1.39
1.42
pi.39
(NA)

1983
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.

i t i 11 i 111111111 n u l l 11111111 n 11111 ii 11 n 1111111111111
1970

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s .
2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

106



G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance1 (thousands)
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 do!., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars)
111. Change in credit—business and consumer
borrowing (annual rate, percent)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales,
manufacturing and trade (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingactual data as a percent of trend (percent)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars (million dollars)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income (percent)
930.
Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

Feb.
1983

Jan.
1983

Net contribution to index

Mar.
1983

Jan.
to
Feb.
1983

Apr.
1983

Feb.
to
Mar.
1983

Mar.
to
Apr.
1983

39.8

39.1

39.6

p40.1

-0.55

0.40

0.43

507

478

479

470

0.16

-0.01

0.06

r31.55

r31.47

r31.84

p31.94

-0.01

0.06

0.02

41

42

50

52

0.04

0.32

0.09

rill.4

rll3.4

rll3.0

pill.7

0.25

-0.05

-0.18

11.80

11.46

rl2.66

pl3.48

-0.06

0.22

0.15

rll6.9

rll9.5

rll8.5

124.1

0.07

-0.03

0.15

r-24.38

r-16.72

p-9.27

0.43

0.42

r-0.14

0.92

rl.95

2.03

0.42

0.41

0.03

144.27

146.80

151.88

157.71

0.11

0.21

0.26

856.4

r875.3

r882.2v

p879.5

0.70

0.25

-0.11

r5.7

rl.4

r-1.4

pO.l

-0.22

-0.15

0.09

rl45.3

rl47.4

rl50.7

pl52.4

1.45

2.24

1.13

88,920

r88,759

r88,955

p89,213

-0.15

0.18

0.31

rl,065.9

rl,066.1

rl,069.5

pi,071.3

0.01

0.16

0.11

rl37.4

rl38.0

rl39.7

pl42.6

0.12

0.34

0.74

rl54,661

rl53,376

pl55,3O3

-0.18

0.28

rl33.9

rl33.4

rl34.4

pl35.7

-0.37

0.75

0.97

19.4

19.0

19.1

19.0

0.15

-0.04

0.06

1.67

1.69

p i . 66

NA

0.26

-0.40

NA

r97.2

r96.5

r95.2

p93.8

-0.26

-0.48

-0.75

11.16

10.98

10.50

10.50

-0.13

-0.34

0.00

rl05,660

rlO5,O55

rlO5,662

pl04,460

-0.15

0.15

-0.44

rl2.95

rl2.96

pl2.99

0.04

0.12

rll5.0

rll3.9

-0.09

-0.96

N
A

N
A

N
A
pll2.6

N
A

N
A

N
A
-1.14

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
(pp. 108-109) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
x
This
2
This
3

series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

T
1. Average workweek,
workers,

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS
REF.
FROM
PEAK
7/81

production

CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR

manufacturing

1 Deviations
from
reference
| peaks

8. New orders tor consumer goods and
materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed1

1
HOURS

SERIES
11
12

Median

"I

+1

0

#40.0

-1
• 39.5
-2
• 39.0

-2.0
-2.0

39.2
39.2

-2.5
-3.0
-3.0
-2.7

39.0
38.8
38.8
38.9

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

17
18
19
20

-2.7
-0.5
-2.3
-1.0

38.9
39.8
39.1
39.6

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

21

0.2

40.1

4/83

ACTUAL
DATA

rlUiN I rl
AND
YEAR

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS
REF.
FROM
PEAK
7/81

SERIES
81
BIL. D L
O
10
11
12

•38.0

13
14
15
16

-12.3
-11.4
-12.5

30.12
30.45
30.06

-13.1
-15.5
-16.8
-18.1

29.84
29.04
28.58
28.13

Percent

—

Median •
•

•
:

V
Ft

W"W*1

i \
" 1981

-14.6
-11.4
-7.9
-7.6

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS
FROM
REF.
PEAK
7/81

29.34
30.42
31.62
31.75

I ccc I

a
+ 2

• 93,000

• 92,000

• 91,000

-2.3
-2.3
-2.8
-2 .9

89313
89264
88877
88750

-3.1
-2.7
-2.9
-2.7

88565
88920
88759
88955

-2.4

89213

4/83

21

DEVIATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
YEAR
DATA
7/81
SERIES

• 90,000

I3 I L .
11
12

-2
• 89,000

48

i\ N N .

-2.7
-2.9

RATE
HOURS

166.40
166.04

-3.2
-3.2
-3.9
-4.5

165.50
165.48
164.27
163.32

17
18
19
20

-4.0
-3.0
-4.2
-3.6

164.13
165.80
163.89
164.89

+6

+12

+18

-2.8

166.24

4/83

+ 24

Months from reference peaks

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the April 1983 issue.
This series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span.
Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series.

l
2

18
0



• 27

— 25

Percent

Median

-ri

1973

•

^B

/VOWBl |

ft

Lwrnflij I Rs. \\
WM
Mia 11

A,J *

h \A\ // • ! •*
m* *

MJF

• 172

•" *

/1

0
• 170

/

/

-1

/T/

mSk fi \ f \\V I
• •• Ilii 1 ^ 1 i A
/

r\r
M
fu

• 168
-

-2

\py\ 1 / i In \

J!
T

-3

^| Jf^^l i 1 1
1

5

J\fllI
O U
18
90

—4

f

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

21

0

—?n

u

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

• 88,000

-15

El

6/82
7/82

13
14
15
16

-10
• 30

1 u,c,c1 1
1

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
PEAK

—

A

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

17
18
19
20

• 36

-5

)^J
\
r
^(
I
\ I

1973

6/82
7/82

13
14
15
16

payrolls

89839
89535

• 39

• 33
—

r———

-1.7
-2.0

+5

-

\\l

41. Employees on nonagricultural
11
12

+10

U^Vi 1 \ I

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

SERIES5 4 1
THOUSANDS

v*

• > * \ ^1980

ww ii

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR

—

1

V Xr \

5/82
6/82
7/82

- 6
17
18
19
20

+ 15

•

n
u

m ytt.

• 38.5

-5

Q

6/82
7/82

13
14
15
16

Percent

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

-1

lllMI
-6
0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

+ 24

- 5

• 166

•164

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued

ryrr

|
2. Net business formation

IXXl

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

•

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
7/81
DATA YEAR

+3
• 120

112.1
112.4

-4.7
-6.6
-5.7
-4.5

112.6
110.4
111.5
112.9

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

17
18
19
20

-3.2
-5.8
-4.1
-4.4

114.4
111.4
113.4
113.0

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

-5.5

111.7

4/83

1973

124.8
124.1

Percent

- 1 +10

1973

• 135

+5

• 125

6/82
7/82

-0.2
-1.0
-1.6
-3.5

122.2
121.3
120.5
118.2

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

17
18
19
20

-4.9
-6.0
-6.1
-7.0

116.5
115.1
115.0
113.9

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

-8.1

• 105

1.9
1.3

13
14
15
16

-12

for
current
cycle

SERIES 930
1967=100
11
12

-6

Actual
data

MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
7/81
DATA YEAR

# 1 1 5

-3

indicators

6/82
7/82

21

1981

-5.2
-4.9

13
14
15
16

+ 6 #125

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

SERIES 12
1967=100
11
12

Percent

|
930. Composite index of 6 lagging

112.6

4/83

• 115
Median

-1 - 1 0

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging

51.

MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
PEAK
7/81
DATA YEAR

Personal income, less transfer
payments, in 1972 dollars
Percent

index

Percent

11
12

SERIES 51
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
1070.3
-0.1
6/82
1067.5
-0.4
7/82

13
14
15
16

-0.6
-1.0
-1.5
-1 .0

1065.4
1061.3
1055.6
1061.0

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

17
18
19
20

-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.2

1063.2
1065.9
1066.1
1069.5

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

21

-0.0

1071.3

4/83

-5

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
7/81
DATA YEAR

-10

+ 10

Median

+10

• 130

• 125
• 1150

+5

• 120
+ 5 #1125

• 1100

Q

• 1075

• 110

SERIES 940
1967=100

• 105

11
12

linn 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
111111111111
0
+ 6 + 1 2
+18 +24

-8.8
-8.9

13
14
15
16

-8.2
-8.1
-9.0
-7.1

110.6
110.7
109.7
111.9

8/82
9/82
10/82
11/82

17
18
19
20

• 1025

-5

-5.9
-3.5
-3.7

113.4
116.3
116.0
118.0

12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83

120.5

4/83

109.9 6/82
109.3 7/82

Months from reference peaks

NOTE:

• 115

-15
1973

• 100

-20

1111111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-6
0
+6
+12 +18
+24
Months from reference peaks

For an explanation o f these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 o f the April 1983 issue.




19
0

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
e complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Accession rate, manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, 01
-.
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
Prices/selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption
Imports of automobiles and parts

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

2
604

16
56

Tables

61
92

Historical
data
descriptions
iissuedate)
(*)

8/81
1/83

18
64

6
1
970
58
974
975
91
7
976
978
977
972
973

24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
. 38

67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76

6/82
6/82
12/82
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83

34
34
3
1
48
48
48
48
49
48
48
48

55
66
1

22
56

65
92

9/82
1/83

50
64

B
Balance of payments-See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl .
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories-See Inventories.
Business loans-See Bank loans.
Business saving

Canada-See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (BEA)
Manufacturing (FRB)
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital investment-See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars .•
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Total
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
,
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
,
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded .,
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
,
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of national
income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
,
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes ,
Wage and'benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction

15,35
32

73
72

2/83
3/82

43
43

33
33

72
112

72
72

1/82
1/82

45
45

13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23

67
67
67
76
72
65
65

6/82
12/82
6/82
6/82
5/83
2/83
5/83

35
24
34
34
44
32
32

46

82

11/82

37

20
20
20

64
64
64

12/82
12/82
12/82

25
25
25

24
24
37

66
66
75

1/83
1/83
1/83

33
33
33

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

2/83
8/82
8/82

441
37

89
62
89
62,89

3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83

20
20
20
20

920
920c
951
940
9
72
112

10
39
36
11
23
15,35
32

60

2/83 |
5/83 '
2/83 '
2/83
3/82
2/83
3/82

15
15*
15
32
43
43

49

87

Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders
Twelve leaders, rate of change
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. .
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales...
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, as percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential as percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
All items, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dot.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol..
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

920
920c
940

10
39
11

2/83
5/83
2/83

930
930c

10
39

2/83
5/83

15

914
915
913
917
916
910
910c

11
11
11
11
11
10
39

2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
5/83

15
15
15
15
15
15

29
9

13,25
23
24

67
66
67

6/82
3/82
3/82

35
32
28

248
87

47
25
25
47
25
25

83
67
67
83
67
67

10/82
9/82
9/82
10/82
9/82
3/82

51
51
51
51
51
35

12,21
22

64
65

8/82
12/82

26
24

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

4/83
4/83
4/83
2/82

43
43
43
45

29
76
6
1
970
1
4
1
2
1
3

320
320c
322
322c
58

49
49,59
49
49
22

84,95
84,95
84
84
65

3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
12/82

59
59
59
59
31

20
10
116

12,23
23
34

8/82
8/82
2/82

32
32
46

112
110
72

32
32
15,35

3/82 ;
11/82 !
2/83

43
44
43

113
95
39
33

35
32
15,35
33
32

4/83
4/83
4/83
2/82
3/82

43
43
43
45
42

345c
280

49

56

56
56

10/82

56

11/82:

70,83

11/82

11/82.
10/82

50
45
30,47

346

74*'
60
66
73
72

56

346c

50

11/82

56

340

49

87

6/82

15

340c

50

87

6/82 ;

15

341

49

87

7/82

15

341c
348
349

50
50
50

87
88
88

7/82
8/81
8/81

15
62
62

19

63

9/82

22

Debt-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
New orders, defense products
Obligations incurred
Deficit-See Government.
Deflators-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . .
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
initial claims, State unemployment insurance : . . . .
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components .
New orders, manufacturing
Prjces, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Salesj net, manufacturing and trade
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components .
Disposable personal income—See Income.

4/83
11/82
12/82:
7/82 ;

64
53
26

525
564
548
517




15
15*

39
32

33
12,21

2/82 !
5/83

45
28

970
965
951
974
963
967

38
37
36
38
36
37

6/82
1/83 ]
2/83 "
5/83
7/82
1/82

34
33
15
48
15
36

37

7/82

24

962
975
952
950
964-

5/83
5/83
2/83
2/83
8/82

18
48
15
15
26

971
968
976
978
977
960
972
973
961

5/83
2/82 '
5/83 '
5/83
5/83
12/82
5/83
5/83
7/82

48
36
48
49
48

NOTE: CI, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).

10
1

Series
Historical
description;
data
(issue date)
(*)

15
37
37

51
18
51
18,51

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

48
48
15

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Earnings-See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments, rate of change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag. payrolls, Dl
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, mfg. production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, Dl
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, and money, Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Food-See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Net exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

2
441

Tables

16
51

5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1

39
17
38
14,17
36
18
51
17
17
12,16
36
16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18,51
12,16
36*'

5/83
62
76
62
74
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61
89
89
89
89
62
61
89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62,89
61
77
74

5/83
7/82
5/83
7/82
7/82
3/83
3/83
7/82
3/83
5/83
5/83
8/81
2/83
7/82
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
8/81
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
7/82

119

34

72
72
80
60

1/82
10/82
2/83

311
311c

48
48

84
84

11/82
11/82

667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
255
250
251

57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
44
44
47

93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
82
82
83

8/82
8/82
8/82
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/82
1/83
8/82
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
10/82

33

72

1/82

20

63

8/82

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
11/82

263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261

43
43
47
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
81
81
83
81
81

11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82

260

Charts

Tables

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date)
(*)

48
48
30

84
84
70

11/82
11/82
9/82

58
59
39

19,40

63,!
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
84

8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
5/83
8/82
11/82
11/82
10/82

49
49
49
49
49
49
40
25
49
49
49

17
17

61
61

7/82
3/83

19
19

16
12,16

7/82
7/82

15
15

36

61
61
77
74

7/82

15*

249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

3/82
6/82
9/82
10/82

35
35
51
51

310
310c

48
48

84
84

11/82
11/82

49
49

345

311
311c

50
50b
50c
200
200b

39*'
40

200c
107
49
310
310c
217

31
20
48
48
40

I

2/82

33

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
,
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment .,
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, Dl
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits ,
Residential GPDI, constant dollars . . . . . . . . . . .
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

7/82

94
213
917

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
G NP, ratio to money supply
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.

8/81.
3/83

17
48c
40
974
41
963
90
442

Historical
Series
data
lescriptions
issue date)

58

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income,..
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income :
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant d o l . . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Income on foreign investment in the U.S. . . . . . . .
. Income on U.S. investments abroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national i n c o m e . . . . . . . . . . . .
National income
Personal income, constant dollars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal income, current dollars
......;.....
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income", less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income, ratio to money supply
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCA
...
....
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, 01
'.
Industrial production - See also International comparisons.:
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Durable manufactures
................
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
........'
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
........
Installment debt-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance . . . . . .
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . .
Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate

49

87

11/82

56

345c
280
64

50
45
30,47

87
82
70,83

11/82
10/82
10/82

56
56
56

346

49

88

11/82

56

346c
95
286
287
225
224

50
15,35
45
47
40
40

88
73
82
83

11/82
4/83
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82

227

56
43
37
37
22
22
22

40

340

49

340c

50

341

80
87

49

341c

652
651
288
289
220
52
223
51
51c
108
282
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23

50
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
14,19
39
31
45
47
45
47
50
50
19
23
28
37
24
22
20
20
4,20,58

966
47c

37
39

5
962
45

12,16
36
18

87
87

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
63

a
83
82
83
63
65
69
79
75
67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75

61
74
62

10/82
6/82
6/82
7/82
7/82
8/82
8/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
4/83
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
8/81
8/81 '
9/82
5/83
1/82

15
15
15
65
65
57
57
55
22
22
22
40*
56
56
57
57
62
62
22
32
36

1/82

36*

12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82

24
24
24
24
24

7/82
12/82

24*

5/83
5/83
3/83

18
18
18

NOTE: C l , composite index; D l , d i f f u s i o n index; GPDI, gross p r i v a t e domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears i n the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Series
descriptions
(*)

Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income .

288
289

10/82
10/82

Bank rates on short-term business loans . . .
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
:....
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada, index
Canada, percent changes
France, index
France, percent changes
Italy, index
Italy, percent changes
Japan, index
Japan, percent changes
United Kingdom, index
United Kingdom, percent changes
United States, index
United States, percent changes . . . . . . . .
West Germany, index
West Germany, percent changes
Industrial production

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

12/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82

France
Italy
Japan
OECO, European countries
,
United Kingdom
,
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions-See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
,
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
,
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid . . . . . . .
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
,
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars . . . . . .
Business inventories, change, current dollars . . . . . . .
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order, net change . . . . . .
Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated)..
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change . . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. . .
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,
change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog . . . .
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl . . . .
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars . . . .
.
Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dol.
Residential, total, constant dollars
Residential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constant
dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current
dollars

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars.
Contracts and orders, current dollars..
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in U.S. . .
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

61
970
20
10

24
38
12,23
23

6/82
6/82
8/82
8/82

652
651

57
57

8/82
8/82

30
15,30
30
29

9/82
2/83
11/82
10/82

Japan-See International comparisons.

59"

96
96
95
95
96
96
95
95
95
95
84,95
84,95
95
95

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

58
58
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94

1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
12/82
1/83

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82

622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651

57
57
57
56
56
57
56
57
56
56
57
56
57
57

93
93
93
92
92
93
92
93
92
92
93
92
93
93

8/82
8/82
8/82
5/82
1/83
8/82
1/83
8/82
5/82
1/83
8/82
1/83
8/82
8/82

30
245
247
65
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78

26,42
42
47
27
13,26
15,27
11
27
27
26
38
27

68,81
81
83
68
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
68

10/82
10/82
10/82
9/82
8/82
1/83
2/83
9/82
9/82
9/82
5/83
9/82

26

68

9/82

66
66
75
60
66

1/83
1/83
1/83
2/83
3/82

733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c

59
59"
59"
59"
59
49
49,59

4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/83
3/83
4/82
4/82

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product . . . . . . . .
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
.....
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector...
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm b u s i n e s s . . . . . . . .
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Composite index, rate of change
.............
Diffusion index
.............:...
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.

930c
952
3

2/83
5/83
2/83
8/81

910
910c
950
14
104




15

2/83
5/83
2/83
5/83
4/83

M
Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
..........
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. . . . . .
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change
Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials, rate of capacity utilization . . . . . . . . .
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
.......
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply Ml . . . . . . . . . . .
.............
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio personal income to money supply M2 . . . . . . . .
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortage yields secondary market
..............
Municipal bond yields

2/83
9/82

26
12,21
20

68

9/82

28

8/82
12/82

917

11

2/83

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
5/83
4/83
3/82
2/82
2/82

27
24
8
20
10
548
7
6

23
23
12,21
12,23
23
53
21
21

N

97
11
965
914

24
24
37
11
23
24

67

42
42

81
81

10/82
10/82

249
87
241
240

25
47
25
25
47
25
42
42

67
83
67
67
83
67
81
81

9/82
10/82
9/82
9/82
10/82
9/82
10/82

27

23

66

10/82
8/82

Obligations incurred, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes...
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing . .

8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82 :
8/82
12/82
8/82
8/82

26
26
26
32
32
26
26
26

8/82
5/83

964
971

26
48

9/82
51
9/82
51
9/82
51
10/82 ••51

9/82

243
242

National defense-See Defense.
National Government-See Government.
National income-See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant d o l . . .
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. .
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

517
721

62
358
370
370c
83
82
84
21

7/82
1/83

20
15,30
50
50
50
20
20
20
16

24
23
66
8/82
NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).

112

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date)
(*)

8/82
2/83
12/82
11/82
11/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
7/82

66

25
39

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving . . :
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Rant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Businessexpenditues for, Dl
Contracts and orders for, constant dollars
Contracts and orders for, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
.....
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
All items, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
...
Deflators, NIPA
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator, GNP, index
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices, change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent change . . . .
........
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes . . . . . . . .
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
..............
Intermediate materials, percent changes . . . . . . . . . .
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes . . . . . . . . .
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
.....
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contracts, military
Prime rate charged by banks
P/oducer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI
Production-See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes .
Profitability, Cl .
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with I VA and CCA, cur. d o l . . . .
Corporate, with I VA and CCA
Corporate, with I VA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income...
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with I VA and CCA to corporate domestic
income
Proprietors' income with I VA and CCA
Proprietors' income with I VA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc..

Charts

Tables

Historical
data
[issue date)

Series
scriptions

(*)

453
452
451

51
51
51

3/83
3/83
3/83

20
20
20

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

9/82

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

292
293
614

46
46
56

11/82
11/82
1/83

61
970
20
10

24
38
12,23
23
18

6/82
6/82
8/82
8/82
3/83

320
320c
322
322c

49
49,59
49
49

84,95
84,95
84
84

3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83

59
59
59
59

311
311c
310
310c
23

48
48
48
48
28

11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
1/82

58
59
49
49
36

967
26

37
29
13,28

84
84
84
84
69
79
75
70
69

13,28
37

69
75

7/82
2/82

36
36

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
26

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
29

85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
70

5/82
5/82
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
10/82

59
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

5/83
5/83
5/83
4/83
2/82

48
49
48
64
46

25

67

9/82

358

50

370
370c
916

50

18
16

28
28

80
79
286
287
972
960
15
916

50
11

10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82

1/82
10/82
2/83

2/83

61
61
61
15

9/82
9/82

37
37
37
37
37
37
48

29
29

9/82
9/82

10/82
10/82

22
81
282
283

29
45
47

9/82

5/83

12/82
5/83
2/83
9/82

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
...._....
.

.

38
15
37

10/82
10/82

37
56
56

8/81

18

284

10/82

57

285

10/82

57

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Series
Historical
data
description!
[issue date!

(*)

Charts

1/82
9/82

10/82

249

11/82
11/82

S
Salaries-See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
change
Surplus-See Government.

40

10/82

49

57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14,22
22
38
15,27
22
22

9/82

11/82
11/82

28
28
28
48
28
31
31

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82

37
58
58
58
58

13,28

2/83

13,28
37
27

7/82
2/82
9/82

36
36
28

9/82

28

2/82
2/82

46
46

213

26

11/82
11/82
5/83
1/83

68

114
115

Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

12/82
11/82
11/82

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

Quit rate, manufacturing .

Rental income of persons, with CCA
Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national
income

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio . . .
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, 01 .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males, 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
United Kingdom-See International comparisons.

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio .
Vendor performance

5
962
3

15,18
17
12,16
36
16

62
61
61
74
61

3/83
3/83
5/83
5/83
8/81

20
19
18
18
18

446
445
447
444
37
4

51
51
51
51
18,51
16

89
89
89
89
62,89
61

3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
8/81

20
20
20
20
20
18

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

3/83
3/83
3/83

20
18
20

21
21

64
64

11/82
9/82

26
26

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

5/83
4/83
5/83

40
40
28

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
99
1

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
13,28
12,16

5/82
5/82
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
2/83
7/82

59
59
60
60

36

7/82

W
Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive prices, change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, D l .

' 60
60
60
60
60
60

15

15

NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




13
1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.

Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23,66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1,2, and 3(13,26,68)

Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.

13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)

37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)

I-A. Composite Indexes

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106, H I )
(M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)

915. Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2
(26,68)

40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(18,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and
over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,62)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(16,61)

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—
The Conference Board
(17,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

47. Index of industrial production, total (M).-Source
4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this
series may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(23,66)

48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural
(M).-Source 3

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series, 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3

(16,61)

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3

(16,61)

5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).-U.S.
Labor, Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis

unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(12,16,61)

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)
7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)
8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(12,21,64)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by

114



25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)
28. New private housing units started, total (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

establishments
(17,39,61)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source

1

(19,63)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source
2
,
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).—
Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars ( M ) . Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars ( M ) . Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).—Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)

86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)
87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)
88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

(34,72)

1-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)

63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)

960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)

961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).-Sources 1
and 3
(36,74.77)

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Source
2
(27,68)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)

66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

(35,73)

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4
(35,73)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4

nondurable
(20,63)

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)
81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(29,70)
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).Source 1
(20,64)
84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4




(31,71)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board (24,66)

962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs-51 areas (M).-Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls—172-186 industries ( M ) . Source 3
(36,74)

(13,28,69)

964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries—34-35 industries (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4
(15,35,73)

966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)

102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)

967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79)

98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and
intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed) (M).—
Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.

104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(31,71)
105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3,
and 4
(31,71)
106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source
4
(35,73)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
111. Change in credit outstanding (business and consumer
borrowing) (M).—Sources 1, 4, and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board
(13,32,72)
112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(32,72)
113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—Source
4
(32,72)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S.
Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)

968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks49-82 industries (M) .—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total— 22 industries (Q).—Source
1
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission fcom the source.) (38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 400
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

Il-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).-Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1 (46,83)
295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(46,82)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source
1
(46,83)

Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product ( Q ) . Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source
3
(49,59,84,95)

253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)

322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84)

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)

331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)

257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source
3
(48,85)

332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment ( M ) . Source 3
(48,86)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities ( M ) . Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source
3
(49,87)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source
3
(50,88)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(50,88)

238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)

370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(42,81)

(45,82)

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(47,82)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)

Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)

(45,82)

441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey ( M ) . Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

116



.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE:

1983-380-993:202

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445.

Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

565.

National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).—Source 1
(55,91)

446.

Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

570.

447.

Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)

577.

Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)

578.

Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)

580.

Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production, total

(M).-Source 4

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

452.

Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

453.

(51,89)

Il-D. Government Activities
500.

Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)

723.

Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)

725.

West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
(58,94)

726.

France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Instituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

736.

France, index of consumer prices (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

737.

Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Instituto Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

738.

Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

742.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—The
Financial Times (London)
(59,96)

743.

Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)

745.

West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)

746.

France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

747.

588.

United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)

735.

Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

3

722.

733.

Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)

732.

451.

721.

728.

Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and

United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)

727.

448.

320.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Instituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(59,96)

748.

Japan, index of
Exchange (Tokyo)

Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)

Il-E. U.S. International Transactions

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

602.

502.

Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

510.

State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)

604. Exports of agricultural products (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
606.

Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

612.

General imports, total (M).-Source 2

511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512.

State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)

517.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)

525.

543.

Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616.

Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

618.

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants

(59,95)

(Q).-Source 1
620.

Merchandise

(57,93)

imports,

adjusted,

excluding

(Q).-Source 1

military

(57,93)

622.

Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

651.

Income on U.S.
1

652.

investments abroad

(Q).—Source
(57,93)

Income on foreign investments in the United States

(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

548.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)

667.

Balance on goods and services (Q).-Source 1(57,93)

557.

Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source

668.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

669.

Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)

4
559.

(54,91)

Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




(59,96)

Il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

stock

prices

(M).—Tokyo

Stock
(59,96)

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