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MAY 1970
DATA THROUGH APRIL

A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION

BUSINESS

CONDITIONS
DIGEST

\

U.S.
DEPARTMENT

OF
COMMERCE
Bureau

of the
Census



This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A. Bookman—Specifications for computer process-

ing,
Gerald F, Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic
data. (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs

The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data am indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report.

This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Bureau of the
Budget. This committee consists of the following persons:
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Bureau of the [Budget, Executive Office of the President
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive
Office of the President
Edwin D. Goldfield, Bureau of the Census, Department of
Commerce
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics, Department of
Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department
of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
George Hay Brown, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director

EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director

ABOUT THE REPORT

ANTICIPATIONS
AND

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the linal
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross nation®! product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output, GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy,,

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, co=
inciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basts of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report

Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues
are $1.50. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of vour




This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
arid various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not: to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.

address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.

New Features and Changes for This Issue

BCD

Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons

1970

Data Through April
Series ESI No. 70-5




iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

MAY

-

1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3

T

...

How to Read Charts.,.

4

How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

4
5

PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3

A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving

,

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

18
21
23
26
28
30

Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List

34
36

ANTICIPATIONS AMD INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

40
43

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade....
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements

—

46
47
52
54

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential Gross National Product...
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes...
Rates of Change

56
. 57
59
61

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl
F2
F3

Consumer Prices

62

Industrial Production
Stock Prices

63
64

PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
AS
A9

Gross National Product

65

National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade

65
66
66
67

....

Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving...

67
67
67
68

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment........
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits........................
Money and Credit

69
71
72
74
75
76

....

Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes..,....,
_.......,

78

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series

79

Diffusion Indexes....................

-

80

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade,.,.
Balance of Payments and Major Components....,

82
............ 83

Federal Government Activities,..,
Price Movements.,,,

,

85
86

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP

87

Analytical Ratios......
Diffusion Indexes...,...,
Selected Diffusion Index Components.......

„...

88
89
92

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Qonsumer Prices...
Industrial Production..,.
Stock Prices.......................

98
99
100

...

APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors.........—.
C. Historical Data for Selected Series............
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series '(Not shown this month)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1961
Index—Series Finding Guide,.
Titles and Sources of Series




101
104
107
108

Il
l

113
, 115

ii

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

Changes in this issue are as follows:

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic

1. The first quarter 1970 figures for U.S. balance of payments,
liquidity balance basis (series 250) and official settlements

research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in

basis (series 522) include allocations of Special Drawing Rights
(SDR). On January 1 the United States received an allocation of
$867 million for the year. This amount will be entered on a

concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may

seasonally adjusted basis as $217 million in each of the year!s
four quarters. U.S. official reserve assets are favorably

result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,

affected by the same amount. Further information concerning

changes in placement of

these data may be obtained from the Office of Business Economics,

other series, changes

Balance of Payments Division.

Indexes, etc.

series in relation to

in composition of

2* Data for consumer price indexes for food (series 782) and
commodities less food (series 7 3 , and wholesale price indexes
8)
for processed foods and feeds (series 751) and farm products
(series 752) have been revised in this report beginning with
1968.

This revision reflects a new seasonal adjustment by the

source agency. Historical data will be shown in a subsequent
issue.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 31, 54, 56,
66, 71, 113, 851, and D47*
The June issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on June 30.



iii

4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations

BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST

LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH

DEFENSE INDICATORS

COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS

A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current bus/ness
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other type;; of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.




A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.

A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.

This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.

This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.

IV

The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape,,
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-ll variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is

E,

into six major

Measures

F.
aim

Ins Part IS (tables) ©f
Most charts begin with 1941
where ttiey begin with
charts contain shading which Indicates
periods of recession So
business

whceh present historical

Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements* Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD



moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The1
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

The historical business cycie turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.

SECTION A

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods andserv/ces measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.

The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an

accounting period.lt is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B

The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

I. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses th3 same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series1
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging * indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)

III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

IV. INVENTORIES
IV. 1
iAND
\INVENTORY
I
INVESTMENT
(9
( series)

The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index, Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the
coincident index. This facilitates

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)

VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)

1 Inventory investment Sensitive commodity
and purchasing
j
prices
, (7 semis)
I
(1 series)
1
Stock prices
'
i (1 series)
;
|
i Profits and profit
margins
;
(4 series)

Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Cyclical
Timing

Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)

i Formation of business
j
enterprises
i
(2 series)
i New investment
•
commitments
j
(8 series)

LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)

i
Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(3 series)
(25 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)




r

j

" ' '

.Comprehensive
j Backlog of investment
i
production
,
commitments
I (3 series)
: (2 series)
! Comprehensive income j
i (2 series)
*
| Comprehensive
i
'• consumption
:
| and trade (3 series) £

; Investment
|
expenditures
:
(2 series)

; Comprehensive
1
wholesale
prices
(2 series)

:

Inventories
(2 series)

iBank reserves
I (1 series)
i Money market interest
t rates
I (4 series)

'Unit labor costs
!
(2 series)

I Outstanding debt
j
(2 series)
I Interest rates on
business loans
'
and mortgages
• (2 series)

comparisons among the leading,coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.

m SECTION c

Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes thr;y merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.

Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com


prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.

per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected group
of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month
spans or for 1-quarter spans.

SECTION F

The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components, Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.

SECTION E

This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost

Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBHR.

Basic Data
(May) (F.b.)
T

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" - June)
.Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" - fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-f 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" ==
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index^Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of. Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.




Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Percent change

1967

1968

1969

4th Q

IstQ

1968

2d Q

3dQ

4th Q

IstQ

1969

1969

1969

1970

2dQ
to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q,

4th Q
to
IstQ

1969

Series title

1969

1970

Series number |

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross Notional Product

200.
205
210
215.
217

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars. . . .
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
1958-100 .
Ann. rate, dol. ..

793.5
674.6

865.7
707.6

932*1
727*5

117*6
3.984
3f387

122.3
4 1 302
3.516

128.1
4t586
3t580

Ann. rate, bi I. dol. . 654.0

do
do

629.4
546.5
477.7

714.4
687.9
590.0
497.6

Ann. rate, dol ...

2i745

do

892 .5
718.5
124*2
4t418
3 1556

908.7
723,1
125.7
4 1486
3»571

924.8
726.7

942.8
730.6

952.2
729.8

959.6
724.3

127.3
4*557
3*581

129.0
4*633
3*590

130.5
4*666
3i576

132.5
4*690
3i540

1.9
0.5
1.3
1.7
0.3

771.0
747.2
629.7
509*5

737.3

711.2
604*3
502.1

751.3
724.4
610.2
502.6

765.7
740.5
622*0
506.2

760.6
756.5
639.0

786.5
767.4
647.5

514.1

514.6

792.1
778.6
660.4
516.8

1.9
2.2
2.7
1.6

0.8
1.4
1.3
0.1

2*933

3 1099

2*991

3 1 014

3.065

3*140

3*172

3*226

2.4

1*0

2 1 399

2i474

2i507

2.485

2*482

2i494

2*526

2*522

2*536

1.3

Ann. rate, bil.doL.
do
do
do
do
do
do

492.3
430.3

536.6
452.6

576*0

562.0
462*9

572*6
466.2

579.8
466.5

1*2
0.1

63.3

89.8

53.2
30.2

58.1
31.7

54.9
31.4

90.6
59.2
31.4

89.6

48.1
24.9

86,4
57.5
30.9

589.5
468.6
90*4

600.4

73,0

550.7
457.6
86*3

57.7

58.0

215.1
204.2

230.6
222.8

243.6
242.6

234.3
230*1

238.6
235*0

242.1
240.1

do
.do
do...;.,
.do
do
... do

116.0

126.3

139*4

133.9

135.2

137.4

83.7
27.9

86.8
29.3

97.8
32.1

59.5

32*2

63.0
33.3

65,7

30*2

32*7

7.3

8.0

91.5
30.1
61*4
31.9
10.5

95.3
32.3

55.7
25.0

99.2
33.4
65.8

31.4
10.7

do..

1.0
-0.1

1.2
0.7
-0.4

o*a
-0.8

1.5
0.5
-1.0

200
205
210
215
217

A2. National and Personal Income

220 National income current dollars

do

224. Disposable personal income current do)
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars

-0.2

0.7
1.5
2.0

0.8

220
222
224
225

1.8

226

0.6

227

1,8
0.7

230
231
232
233
234
236
237

A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total current dollars

231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237

Total constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars ,
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services current dollars

466.1

32 . 1
32.4
245.1
248.7

471.7
69.4
60.4
29.0

244.9

250.3

255.4
255.6

143.3
101.1

141*8
102.5

135.0
104.0

34.7

34.5

66*4

68.0
31.6

35.6
68.5
30.2

-0.9
-2*5

2.2
1*2
2.0

1.7
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.9
1.5
2.2

-1.1

4.1
-10.5
2.7
2.1

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240 Gross private domestic investment, total . . .

241.
242.
243,
244.
245

Fixed investment, total nonresidents a 1
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip.
Fixed investment, residential structures . . .
Change in business inventories total .

7.4

6.6

6.9

7.7

0.8

4.3
3.4
6.1
1.1
-4,0

3*6

-1.0

1.4
-0.6

2.4
0.6
-3.0

-4.8

1*5
3*2
0.7
-4.4
-6.9

240
241
242
243
244
245

AS. Foreign Trade

do
do
do

253 Imports

5.2

2.5

2.1

1*2

1.5

1.6

2.7

2.7

3.0

1.1
1*2

50.6
49.4

47.6
46.1

57.1
55.5

57.8
55,2

56.6
55.9

60.8
57.8

214*6

206.7

101t9

101.9

210.0
101.6

212.9
100.6

217.0
103.2

216.3
102.3

221.2
102.3

79.2

79.3

79.0

78.5

80.3

79.2

78.9

100.7

112.7

104.8

108.5

112*3

113.8

116,0

118.9

1.9
2.6
2.3
1.3

157.0

171.4

186.2

176.6

181.6

185.5

187*6

189.9

190.1

do

234.1

252.3

265.6

256.4

259.7

264*1

267.4

271.2

do

3.5

2.0

2*5

3.1

1.3

2*1

3*1

do
do
do..do
do

467.4

513.6

564.3

532.3

546.0

556.2

61.9
20.8
79.2
24.7

63.6
21.2
87.9
28.0

66.3
21.6
88.2
30.6

64.1
21.4
90.3
29.3

64.6
21,5
89.5
29.6

66.5
21.6
89.2
30.3

do

119.2

144*7

135.4

46.2
41.0

50.6
48.1

55.3

do
do
do
do

180.1

200*3

90.7
72,4
89.3

99.5
78.0

do

53*2

-0.5

0.0
1.4
1.3

0.3
3.8
3.4

250
252
253

1.3
0.0

A6, Government Purchases of Goods
and Services

260. Total
264 National defense
266 State and local

1.9

2.5

260
262
264
266

1.2

1.1

0.1

270

276.2

1.2

1.4

1.8

271
274

3.0

2.1

1.0

-0.1

571.9

561.1

592.0

67.3
21.7
88.8
30.9

66.7
21.8
65.2
31*6

66.6
22.0
79,2
32.3

2.5
1.2
0.5

-0.9

150.2

0.6
-0.9
-1.4

-0,4

A7. Final Soles and Inventories

270. Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable

' Hn

274. Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods 2

-0.9

275

A8. Notional Income Components

284. Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
El.

136.5

142.7

147.5

142.1

.... do

40.4

36.4

37.6

38.0

32.5

33.3

43.1

41*7

43.5

do
.do
do

24.6
68.6

20.4
77.9

20.8
77.2
11.4

21.2
78,6

17.6
79.9

15.0
81.3

6.8

23.6
74.6
-0.9

21.8

-14*5

23.4
73.3
-6.7

do

-1.7

-7.7

0*3

-8.3

-5.9

.128*4

75*9

6.3

7,4

8.2

0*8

8.8

2.4

-0.4

2.0

5.3
29.4

1.9
1.8
-4.0

1*6
0.5
-4.1

2.3

1.9
-0.1

0.9
"7.0

2.2

-1.8
-3.2

~3.7

-17.0
1.7
0.8

-14.8
1.8

4.3

230
282
264
286
268

290
292

-5.8

294
296
298

13.3

207

Actual and Potential GNP

207. GNP eao footential less actual) 2




-2.4

22.1

3.2

8*0

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

1968

1969

3dQ
1969

4th Q
1969

IstQ
1970

Percent change

Feb.
1970

Mar.
1970

Apr,
1970

Feb.
to
Mar.
1970

Mar.
to
Apr.
1970

3dQ
to
4th Q
1969

4th Q
to
IstQ
1970

B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS
67. Composite Indexes

810, 12 leading ind cators, reverse trend adj. * 1963-100 ......
do
820, 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
do

141,4
156,6
164.8

151 *7
170.2
189*4

152*3
172.1
194*0

152.4
173.3
199.3

149.4
173.0
199.8

150.6
173.2
199.9

148.0
173.1
199. 2

147.8
173.7
199.5

-1*7
-0.1
-0.4

-0.1
0.3
0*2

0.1
0*7
2.7

-2,0
-0.2
0.3

106.4
114.2
101*8
116.6
101.9

106.6
118*1
105.7
116.7
100.2

106.5
117*9
106.7
115.6
99.0

105.3
117.3
107,2
114.2
98.7

101.7
114*9
105*9
111.9
96.1

101*3
116.4
107.0
111*5
95.1

100.7
113.1
105.7
111.9
96*6

NA
115.5
104.8
111.2
NA

-0.6
-2.8
-1.2
0*4
1*6

NA
2.1
-0.9
^0*6
NA

-1.1
-0.5
0.5
-1.2
-0,3

-3,4
-2,0
-1*2
-2.0
-2.6

40*6
40.7
5 1 149 5 t l 3 6

40.6
4t728

40.1
4(420

39.9
4(332

40.2
4*284

40.0
NA
NA

0.8
-1.1
-0.3

-0.5
NA
NA

-0.2
-7.9
-0.1

-1.2
-6.5
-0.4

LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS

813,
814.
815.
816.
817.

Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investfi8nt commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows

do
do
do
do
do

Bl. Employment ond Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS

Marginal Employment Adjustments;
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg, . , . Hours
40.7
4. Nonagri, placements, all industries
Ann. rate, thous. . 5i716
2. Accession rate, manufacturing z
Per 100 employ . .
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 3
unemployment insurance (inverted )
Thousands .
194
3, Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted3)2 . . , Per 100 employ . . 1.2

194
1.2

197
1.2

208
1.3

248
1*7

250
1.7

263
1.8

326
NA

-5.2
-0.1

-24*0
NA

-5*6
-0.1

-19,2
-0,4

373
206

319
227

346
229

319
222

292
200

306
203

292
194

NA
186

-4.6
-4.4

NA
-4,1

-7.8
-3.1

-8,5
-9,9

134.6
67.8
72.1

139.1
70.1
74.3

139.8
70*4
74. S

139.9
70.7
75.1

139.6
71*0
75.5

139.6
71.0
75.3

139.8
71.1
75.6

139.6
71*0
75.3

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Job Vacancies:
49. Nonagri. job openings unfilled *
46. Help-wanted advertising

Thous., E O P - . . .
1957-59=100 ....

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in ncrtagricuttural
Ann. rate, billion
establishments,
man-hours
Millions
*41. Employees on nonagri payrolls
do
42, Persons engaged in nonagri activities . . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted3)2. . . .Percent
45, Avg, weekly injured unemployment
do
rate (inverted'')2
40. Unemployment rate, married mates
(inverted 3 ) 2 .,,.do

0.1
0.1
0*4

-0.1
-0.1
-0*4

0.1
0*4
0*8

-0,2
0*4
0,5

3.6

3.5

3*6

3,6

4.2

4.2

4.4

4.8

-0.2

-0*4

0.0

-0,6

2.2

2*1

2.2

2.3

2.6

2.6

2,7

3.1

-0.1

-0*4

-0,1

-0,3

1.6

1.5

1*6

1*6

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.4

-0.2

-0.2

0.0

-0,4

0.5

0*5

0.5

0.5

0*6

0.6

0.7

0.7

-0.1

0.0

0.0

-0,1

. 165.5

865.7
707.6

932.1
727.5
172.8

942.8 952*2
730 . 6 729.8
171.9
174.3

959.6
724.3
170.7

170.5

171.1

170.4

0.4

-0.4

1*0
-0.1
-1.4

0,8
-0,8
-0,7

Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
Ann. rate, bil, dot.
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do

687.9
178.6

747.2
194*7

756.5
197.6

767,4
199,3

778*6
198*9

778.3
198*3

783,3
200.2

801.1
199.0

0,6
1.0

2.3
~0.6

1.4
0.9

1.5
-0.2

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56, Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54, Sales of retail slores

It 162 1(245
858.4 924.1
338.1 351.5

It 259
932.0
350*3

It 269
944*5
354*0

It 265
958.9
357.1

It 274

1*261

NA

-1*0

NA

359.8

356,8

NA

-0,8

NA

0*8
1*3
0*9

-0,3
1*5
0.9

123.6
273.2

124.0
278*6

122,4
278*0

120*2
265.6

121.7
279.0

117.1
253,1

NA
NA

-3,8
-9,3

NA
NA

-1.3
-0*2

-1.3
-4,5

367.0
194
95.7
30.0
78.8

374.8
190
96*0
31.8
79.8

373.2
197
97.2
30.4
78*6

348.8
209
99.5
25*9
76.0

355.9
215
102,6

343.6
206
91,2

346.9
203
98.9

1*0
-2.4
8*4

79.2

71,8

72.7

-9.3

1.3

-0.4
3.7
1.2
-4.4
-1.5

-6,5
6.1
2*4
-14*8
-3,3

905
1*464
109.7

858
1»410
102.3

925
1»328
100*6

948
1*232
90.5

971
1*287
95.0

805
It 364
91,8

768
It 164
104*4

-17*1
6.0
-3.4

-4.6
-14.7
13.7

7.6
-5.8
-1.7

2*5
-7.2
-10.0

86.67
22*98

86.38
22.62

86.67
22.98

83.72
22.57

64.80

83.72

82.86

-1.3

-1.0

0.3
1.6

-3,4
-1*3

LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
* 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted3)2

do

B2, Production, Income, Consumption,
artel Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205, GNP in 1958 dollars
*47, Industrial production

Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
1957-5*=100 . . .

do
do
do

B3. Fixed Capitol Investment
LEADING INDICATORS

Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations

1957-59=400.... 117.6
Ann, rate, thous. , 233.2

New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
Ann. rate ,bil. dot ., 334.5
8. Construction contracts, total value
1957-59-100....
176
*10, Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . . rate ,bi 1. dol .. 85,0
Arm.
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
do
24*8
24, New orders, rnach. and equip, industries
do
69.7
9, Construction contracts, commercial
Ann.rate,mil,sq,
and industrial buildings .
ft.floor space . .
793
7, Private nonfarm housing starts . . .
Ann. rate, thous. . It484
*29. New bldg. permits,, private housing
1957-5^100.... 112.9

-3*5
-3.3
-11. 1

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries4. Bil.dol.,EOP...
97. Backlog of capital approp.,mfg.4
do




84*07
20.02

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

1968

1969

3dQ
1969

4th Q
1969

Percent change

1st Q
1970

Feb.
1970

Mar.
1970

94.37

92*79

Apr.
1970

Mar.
to
Apr.
1970

Feb.
to
Mar.
1970

3dQ
to
4th Q
1969

4th Q
to
IstQ
1970

.3*
CO

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS

Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip • • • Ann. rate, bil.dol.
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
do

67.80

75.54

77.84

77.84 aSO.OO

82*69

92.25

94.98

93.27

93.73

7.3

8«0

10.7

7.7

0.8

13.5

3,3

11.7

1*8

NA

53

50

50

51

45

2.2

2.0

NA

0.0

NA

-1.7

NA

-1.8

2.8

61

0.5

69

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2.
*31, Change in book value, manufacturing
37, Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies2 .
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ©
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
25. Change in unfilled offers, durable goods
industries2.

Ann. rate, billion
dollars

do
Percent
Ann. rate, billion
dollars

ftrcent

do
Ann. rate billion
dollars

-3.0

12.3

13.9

51

SO

50

1.4

1.1

0.4

2.0

0*9

64

63

62

64

60

62

56

60

-6

53

65

67

64

55

58

50

52

-P6

2

3,5

2.6

1.9

1*2

-8*9

-13.0

10.1

-11.8

-10.3

-9.9

1
-0.2

-4.1

-6.9

245

-10.2

31

NA

-0,4

-6

3

(MA

1*6

4

2

-4

26

-3

-9

32

2*7

-0,7

-3
-1.1

-13.0

37
20

25

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventories:
*71, Book value, mfg. and trade inventories * . .Bil. dol., EOP...
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
of finished goods^ ...

153*8

166.1

162.7

166*1

166.9

166.8

166.9

NA

0.1

NA

2.1

0.5

71

29*13

31.64

31*10

31.64

32*25

32*16

32.25

NA

0.3

NA

1,7

1.9

65

1,0

2.9

23

B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS

Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices©

1957-59=100 ....

97.8

111*8

114.9

116.1

119.5

120*0

119.2

118.7

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks©

1941-43=10

98.7

97*8

94.5

94.3

88.7

87.2

86*6

86.0

49*8

50*5

49*7

49.0

11.4
5.1
99.8

10*7
4.8
99*4

10.4
4.8
99*4

109.0
109.4

112.6
113.3

1957-59=100 ....

0.723
109.6

0.762
114.0

Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 2
money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
deposits
do
85. Change in money supply2 2
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
33. Change in mortgage debt
do
*113. Change in consumer installment debt 2
do
112 Change in business loans 2
. ....
do
110 'Total private borrowing

9.0
7.0
20.1
8.9
7.4
84.1

-1.5
2.4
19.9
8.1
7.4
91.9

-6.7

0.94

Profits and Profit Margins:
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
2
corporate all industries
Percent
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 Cents
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
• 1957-59-100 ....

-0.7

-0.4

-2.9

19

-0.2

-5.9

46.1

-1.4

-5.9

16

10*2
4.5
98.4

9.6
NA
98*8

99.1

98.9

99.2

-0.2
-0.3
-1.0

-0.6
NA
0.4

22
15
17

112*8
113.7

114*2
114*9

115.5
116.4

115*5
116*4

115.8
116.6

116.2
116.9

0.3
0.2

1,2
1,1

1.1
1.3

55
58

0.767
114.3

0.780
116,8

0.797
117.8

117.4

117.9

117.8

0.4

1.7
2.2

2.2
0.9

68
62

19.5
7.7
3.3
89*7

0.6
1.2
17.6
6.8
6.1
81.8

2.2
3.3
15.0
4.0
-3.2
78.8

-5.8
-10.8
14.5
5,0
5.5

13.8
13.2
13.7
2.4
-2.4

16.3
10.7
NA
NA
-2.1

19.6
24.0
-0.8
-2*6
-7*9

2.5
-2.5
NA
NA
0.3

7.3
1,2
-1,9
-0.9
2.8
-8.8

1*6
2.6
-2.6
-2.8
-9.3
-3.7

98
85
33
113
112
110

1*14

1.00

1.36

1,59

1.67

1.44

1,56

13.8

-9.7

^36.0

1.67

1.61

1.70

1.61

1.79

1,79

NA

NA

NA

NA

-0,11

0.02

39

1.6

-0.2

0.3

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities © . 1957-59=100 ....
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods© .

0.3
0.3

LAGGING INDICATORS

Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg

-0.1

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS

Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.3)©.
do
39. Delinquency 2
rate, installment loans
Percent, EOP ...
(inverted?) *

o.o

-16.9

14

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted3)2 ©

Million dollars...

-207

-871

-950

-936

-800

-819

-761

-751

-38

-30

-14

-136

93

Money
114
116.
U5.
117.

Percent
do
do
do

5.34
6.84
5*26
4.45 :

6.69
8.06
6.12
5.72

7.05
8.16
6.14
6*00

7.32
8.87
6,53
6.4O

7.26
8.95
6.56
6.35

7.16
8.84
6*44
6.36

6.71
9.00
6.39
6*03

6.48
9.09
6.53
6.49

-0*45
0.16
-0.05
-0.33

-0.23
0.09
0.14
0.46

0,27
0.71
0.39
O.4O

-0.06
0.08
0.03
-0.05

114
116
115
117

Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate 2 ©
Corporate bond yields22 ©
Treasury bond yields 2©
Municipal bond yields rfj>




Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change
Feb.
to
Mar.
1970

Mar.
to
Apr.
1970

3dQ
to
4th Q
1969

1970

Feb.
1970

Mar.
1970

96.2
80.8

97.2

97.0

97.2

78.4

79.0

78.4

78.1

-0.8

-0.4

8.83
8.53

8.86
9.24

9.29

9*20

9.10

-0.09

-0.10

0.01
0.16

-0.2

1968

1969

3dQ
1969

4th Q
1969

88*1

96.2

94.5

72.5

80.8

78.3

6.68
7.19

8.21
8.29

8.82
8.37

IstQ

Apr,
1970

4th Q
to
IstQ
1970

Series number |

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

8. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money aid Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS

Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer instalment debt*
Bil.dol., EOP...
*72, Com. and industrial loans outstanding *. . . .... do
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on start-term bus.2 loans 2®. . . Percent
do
118, Mortgage yields, residential ©

NA

0.2

NA

1.8
3.2

1.0
-3.0

0.03
0.71

66
72
67
118

D, OTHER Ki:Y INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade

500. Merchandise trade balance2

Ann. fate, bit. doL.

do
502. Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
vehicles
. . do
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery — 1957-59-100...,
512. Genera! imports
Ann.rate,bil,doU.

1.0

1.3

2.3

34.1

37.3

39.5

12.3

14.7

15.1

241

256

33.1

36.0

0,17
1*64

-7.21

272

2.1

2.4

4.5

2.0

39,9

41.2

43.5

40.5

16.1

17.2

18.7

18, 8
255
38*6

247

37.2

37,8

-9.24
-2.46

2.13
3,35

243
38.9

2.4

-2.5

0.4

41. 4

-6.9

2.2

NA
NA
1.0

NA
NA

0.5
4.9

0*3

500

1.0

3.3

502

6.6

6*8

39.1

39.0

-1.3

1.6

2.9

506
508
512

11.37

243

-9.04
•15.73

520
522

-9.2

-1.6

D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
520,

Liquidity balance basis2

do
do

522. Official settlements basis*

2.71

-6.91
-12.38

5.81

03. Federol Government Activities

600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditure!;, national income
and product accounts
264. National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
621, Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647, New orders, defense products industries. . .
648, New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S

do

-5.2

9.5

7.7

6.6

0.3

do

176.3

201.5

201*3

203.3

198.7

do
do
do
do
do
do
do

181.5

192.0

193.6

196.7

198.4

78,0
86.8
28.9
47.5

80.3
79.1
18.2
44.3
21.0
35.5

79.2
84.9
24.2
52.7
25.7
35.2

78.9
80.3

42.3

79.2
81.1
20.9
47.3
23.1
35.5

1957-59-100 ....
do

121.2
108.7

127.7
113.0

128.7
113.4

84.5

83.7

84.2

1.54

1.54

1.54

1.56

1.58

1.57

1.59

NA

1.3

NA

3.31

3.16

3.14

3.09

3.09

3.06

3.09

NA

1.0

NA

118.0

120.8

121.0

122.1

120*4

1,11.5

120.3

0.065

0.060

0,067

0.064

0.066

0.134
134.2

0.127
134.7

0.119
134.4

0.114
134.9

0.089
134.5

2.48

2.50

2,51

2.50

2.48

78.53
5.4

78.21
5.0

78.30
5.0

78.02
4.7

77.37
NA

NA

-1.1

1.0
1.6
-1.4

NA
NA

47.2
21.0
34.1

78.2
18.5
51.4
22.4
31.4

78.2
19.7
47,8
18.7
36.1

43.4
17.4
30.6

130.5
114.6

132.5
116*3

132.5
116.4

133.2
116.6

134.0
116.6

81.7

0.0
6.5

NA
NA

79.4

20*4

-7.0

~16.5

-9.2
-7.0

15.0

-15.2

7.3
33,0
17.6
22.4
-0.8

-6.3

600

-2,3

601

0*9
-0,4
-5.4

-15.7
-10,4
-18,3
-3.1

602
264
616
621
647
64B
625

D4. Price Movements

781, Consumer prices, all items ®
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities ®

0.5
0.2

0.6
0.0

1.4
1.1

1.5
1.5

781
750

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2, Analytical Ratios

850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 2 . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
and trade
Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59=100
354. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
Ratio
355. Ratio, nonagricultum! job openings
do
unfilled to persons unemployed
358. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarnv * 1957-89=100....
356. Real average hourly earnings, production
1957-59 dollars-.
1)59. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri, production or nonsupv. workers* •
do
857. Vacancy rate in tola rental housing 2 ® * . Percent

-2.5

118.8

-1.0

-1.2

1.3
-1*6

0.9
-4*5

0.089

0.080

NA

-10.1

NA

-4.2

0.4

a. 48

2*48

77.32

77.45

-2.3

850

1.3

851

0.0

852!

-1.4

3.1

853
854

-21,9

ess

-0,3

858

2.47

0.0

-0.4

-0.4

-0,8

856

77.37

0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

859
857

-0.3

NA

NOTE: Series are seasonall
i, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. * Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, NA = not available,
a - anticipated.
EOP •- end of period.
*Xn many eases, data shown hero are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published "by tho source agenoies or they are rounded frcra published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures 1'or isanthly scrieo)
are 2averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
Dlfforoneo0 rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Inv@rted series. Sinoe this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
*End-of -period sorles. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the Last figures for the period,




NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

200, GNP in current riailars

205, GNP in 1958 dollars, 0 ann. rate, bil. dol.1

dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. rJol.l

215. Per capita GNP in

1948

49

50

51

52

53

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

ItCII MAY




1970

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A2

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(Nov.) (Set)
P

(Aug.)

I

I

I (Agtr.)
T

(Hay) (Feb.)
P

f

220. National income, current doferl Q (am. rate, bl dol.)

222. Personal income, current iJoBars, Q
(am. rate, Ml doll

224. Disposable personal income, current;
doHars, Q (ana rate, bit doll

225. DisposaWc personal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (ana rate, bit do),)

226. Per capita dteposatote personal income, current dolars,
i| 0 (am. rate, ttwjs. ool.l

227. Pw capita disposable personal income, 1958 doftars,
Q (am. rate, thous. dot]

1948

49

S©

i
l

§2

S3

§4

67

S8

S§ 1D7©

Current data for those series are shown on page 65.

10




MAY 1970

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Section A

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

Juiiiuai rate, billion dollars
Personal consumption ex
230. Total, current dollars, 0

231. Total, 1958 dollars, Q

232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q

233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles
current dollars, Q

234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q

total, current dollars, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 66.

BCD MAY



1970

11

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A4 I

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

Annual rate, bilfkm dollars [current]

wm$ private domestic investment

241. Nonresident fixed investment, total, Q

I

242. Nonrestdential structures, Q

243. Producers' durable

244. Residential stnictoras Jl

245. Cftarwe in business inventories,!TT

1948

49

§©

Current data for the;

51

52

§3

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 197©

9 shown on page 66.

12



MAY 1970

IICII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

4S40252. Exports of goods and services, Q

l

-

SS •

30 =

29-

20-

15-

10J

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

ito

MAY 1970




13

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

[chart _A<T] GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

(Ksv.) (Get.)

(Aug.)

(Jirtjf) (Apr.)
P I

P

I

Annual rate, fepn jkjltojcurreatl.

260. Federal, Stats, and local governments,

i

266. State and tocal governments, Q

Current data for theis series are shown on page 67,

14



MAY 1970

itcn

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A7

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

Annual rate, billion dollars current)

durable goods. Q

business inventories, durable goods, Q

iness inventories, nondurable foods, Q

51

52

53

54

SS

56

1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

ItCII

MAY 1970



15

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

P

(July) (Apr.)

(luly) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct)
T

P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T
/UU-

Annual ratet billion dollars (current)

600-

^"*^~ D

^~~^

400-

280. Compensation of employees, 0 ^*+l~*~**'^

1948 49

52

53

54

55

§6

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

500 -

f

300-

64

65

66

67

68

6d 1070

Currant data for theia serfei oro shown on pages 67 and 68.

16




MAY 1970

!!€!»

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A9

SAVING

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

290. Gross saving (private and government], U
A.

292. Personal saving, Q

294., Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q

296. Capital consumption allowances, Q

5©

51

52

53

54

SS

56

57

58

59

6©

61

62

67

68

60 197©

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

lt€l»

MAY 1970




17

Section

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

f Chart Bll EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*== °=r-

- ' -—

=----.-.- -. ; . . J
,-=

Leading Indicators

fltav.) W4
P
T

(My)

(teg.)

(Aft) (Apr.)
P I

(May) (Fc5.)
P

T

Marginal Employment Adjustments
,
,
,
..
..„
. Aver«|* wrttwwlt, pfOduction worllfS, manufacturing (hours)

2. Accession rafte, manufacturing (per 100 ampfcy«6$)

*$, Average weekty initial ciafcm, State unemptoyBiejit insurance (thousands-inverted

3, Uyoff rate, manufacturing [per 100 emptoym-inverted scate)

Cur cent data for the so series ai<-o shown on page 69.

18




MAY 1970

ItCII

Section B
Chart

Bl

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oei)
P
I

(Jnl«
P

(Aug.!
1

Nonagricultural job openings unfitted (thousands]

46, Help-wanted advising [index: 1957-59^100)

Man-hours in nonagriculturai establishments [ann. rate, bit. man-hours)

*41. Emiitoyees on nonagriculturai payrolls (mtlltons

Persons engaged in nbrtatficultairat acflvraes

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

ItCII

MAY 1970




19

Section B
Chart

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Bl I EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Itev.) (let)
P
IT

»J (Aug.)
P
I

[My) (Apr.)
P

T

Pay) (Feb.)
P I

f43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)

45. Average weekly Insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)

40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent-inverted scale)

Lagging Indicators
Long - Duration Unemployment

_ *44. Unemployment rat®, parsons unemployed 15 weeks and over [percent-inverted scale)

Currant data for the;

20

shown on page 70.




MAY 1970

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Roughly Coincident Indicators

Comprehensive Production

' £ ."„' ,

,--'-!'

• ' ; ' « •

^.j;^™

„

> ' " ' " '

?

••: ' ^/

„

;'>j_
",X-/

,,- r ....,,

„**••*

x^^W
n

->-.."*'''.

.*.^^L_

^^

___^^

,^- +>r

:^;r;

;f20ONP in current dollars, Q [aiin. rate, 6il. dof7)
' •-<-•-''
-''--.-.<•'

900-

.r
v^

7SO-

*205. GNP in 1958 Mars,
Qlann. rateTBil ool.]

*47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)

*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e.. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCII

MAY 1970




21

Section B

[ Chart

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Hw,l (Bet.)
f

(My) (Aug.)

IT

F

T

(July) (Apr.)
F

T

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

*56, Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. do I.)

57. Final sates (series 200 minus series 245), Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

•54. Sales of retail stores (DM. dot.)

4t

BO

Bl

i

NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these oerles are shown on page 71,

22




MAY 1970

ltd*

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

B3

Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

^12 Jet t>«sjnessfamiation (ir$ex: 1957-59-JOOJ

13. New business incorporations thousands)

8. Construction contracts, totaLvalUB,(Mex;ia57-59=IOQ;
MCD moving avg.-5-term)'

*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment _ =(bit. dol.)
- n "
-*—- '
^,-^__ ^

*ThIs is o copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-HIIf Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

BCII

MAY 1970




23

Section 8

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (hil. dol.)

24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries (bit. dot.)

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. ft.
«a;in^

Private npnfami[housing starts [ann. rate,mijons; MCDmoyinfl ayg.-5-term]

*29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1957-59=100]

1948 49

5®

51

§3

54

55

5S

S7

§8

59

60

61

62

€3

64

Sg

Si

67

68

69 107©

(

Thl* It o copyrtghtad terles uted by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown' on pages 72 and 73.

24



MAY 1970

ltd*

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)

(My)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)

P

(Map) (Feb.)

I

F

T

120100-

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.)

a

80 - •

60- '

40-

302520- •

BWIopwppitar

16 - '

Lagging Indicators

70-

*61. Business expenditu es, new plant and equipmeit, fljamunrte, bil. dpi.)

80 -

40 -

120 •
100-

80*

69, Machinery and equipment sates and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bit. do!.)

80-

40 J

&afi£^b^

m

5©

51

52

57

58

59

§7

68

69 19?0

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

BCII

MAY 19/ii



25

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B4

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators

p'
!

i?"

Inventory Investment and Purchasing
245. Change in business inventories, ail industries, Q (ann. rate, bil, dol.J

*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, bil, do!.; MCO moving avg-5-term)

37. Purchased materials^ percent of companies refwrting higher inventories

20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
rin. rate, biCdoI:"ilEb moving avg.^-term]

26, Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitmetrts 60 days or longer

51

52

Si

54

SS

56

B7

Si

9S

6©

Si

61

©3

64

65

S7

68

6S 1970

Currant data for these

26




MAY 1970

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (let.)
P
T

(lu!|)
P

(Aug.)
I

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

inventory Investment and Purchasing - Con.

100-

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries

§0-

25. Change in unfitted orders, durable goods industries
"". dot.; MCI) moving avg.-4-term) ,

*71. Boo^vajue, manufacturing and tradeJn

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (nil. dol.)

15-

10 J

Si 107©
NOTt: For jhis economic process (I.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

ltd*

MAY 1970




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Section B

[chart B5 j
Chart B5

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Leading Indicators
M)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

T

Sensitive Commodity Prices

*23, Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100}

140*

*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194143=10)

00-

*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. do).)

22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating,
corporate, all industries. Q [percent!

15. ^Projit^(afteyam]pef jtoljaf (^

! RaHo, price to iinifTaboF cost, m=anuficturing]iti(ix: 1957-59=lbof
165102)«

1948

40

90

i
l

52

§3

S4 55

§7

58

Currant data for -those terfeis are shown on page 75.

28



MAY 1970

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators

MOT.) (1st)
P
T

(July)

P

(tog,

T

Comprehensive Wholesale Prices

55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100)

58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1957-59=100)

Lagging Indicators

68. lafaor cost cur. d o l r m t ofeacorpjirate gross

*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100]

57

58

99

6©

61

62

69 1070

Current data for these series are shown on page 75,

B€l» MAY



1970

29

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B6~~] MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
P

(July)
P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P I

(Aug.)
T

m) (fete.)
P T

Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (ann. rate, percent;
MCO mojrfaffjv^-lMj _

A t

85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg-6-term)

33. Change in mortgage debt (arm. rate, tot dot)

*113. Change in consumer instalment debt (ann. rate, bit dol.)

112. Change in business hums (ann. rate, bil. do),;
MCO mwingjavg.-*6-teim)

49

S©

§1

55

56

§7

61

62

63

64

6?

S8

69 19?0

Current data for tho«e ierte» are shown on page 76.

30



MAY 1970

KCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(MOT.) (Set)

(Ml)

(Ant,)
T

I (Apr.)

(May) (Fib.)
If

110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. doj.)

MC0 moving avg.-6-term)

39. DeSnquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent-inverted scale)

1948 4S

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

lid) MAY 1970




31

Section B
Chart

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

B6~| MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Inly)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P I

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P I

(May) (Fefe.)
P
I

93. Free reserves (bit. dol.-inverted scale)

114. Treasury bill rate (percent)

116. Corporate bond ymtds (percent)

115, Treasury bond yields (percent)

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

1948 49

SO

51

5;

Current data for those stir lei ore shown on page 77.

32




MAY 1970

ltd*

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Get.)
P
I

66. Consumer installment debt (btl. do I.)
i

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks [oil, do).}

*67, Bank rates qn short-term business loans, Q [percent]

li

i

118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent]

Current dote for these series are shown1 on page 77.

ltd*

MAY




1970

33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

harT B7~1 COMPOSITE INDEXES

810. Twdvi lying Wteitof*. ftwse trend adjusted
11,23/29,31,113]

620. Rve eeftpdent indicators, wtlmated aggre^atB
win
«o$ iific activrty j sasffe
-JL ,

830. Six lagging iodfcators series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71t 72)

Currwt data for theifl tsrlai are shown on page 78. Numbers entered on the chart Indicate length of leads I-) and lags ( + ) In months from reference turning (fates.
1 Reverse trend adjusted Index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the Index of 5 coincident indicators.

34




MAY 1970

itcn

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(Aug.)
T

S3

54

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Hay) (Feb.)
T

.ji A L JLLJUL

1948

49

5©

51

52

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 78.


MAY 1970


35

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

| Chart B8 ] NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) ((Jet)
P
If

(July) (Apr.)

(May) (Feb.)

*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

*5, Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)

*12. Net business formation (index: 1957-59=100)

*6. New orders; durable goods industries (bl dot.)

*10 Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dot.)

*29. Hew building permits, private housing units (index: 1957-59-100)

Current data for these series arc shown on pages 69, 72, and 73.

36




MAY 1970

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
NOT.) (pet)
P
T

(July)

(Aug.)

*31, Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories

*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)

140 «

*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks {index: 1941-43-10)

*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q lann. rate, bit. do!.]

*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)

*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 75, and 76.

MAY 1970



37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

[chart _B8 J NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Octi
P
T

(Aug.)
T

[July) (Apr.)
P

T

(May) {Feb.}
P

T

*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ano. rate, bil. rfol.)

*205. 6NP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bit dol]

47. Industrial protection (index: 1957-59=100)

*52, Personal income (am. rate, bit. dol.)

*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales (bit. dol.)

*54. Sales of retail stores

41. Employees on nonagricultura! payrolls (miiortsl

*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale]

1948

49

S©

SI

§2

§3

54

§6

§7

SI

62

S3

84

Cur font data for thaio iittrtos are shown on pages 70 and 71.

38




MAY 1970

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.}
P
I

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)

*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dot.]

*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
targe commercial banks (bit. do I.)

*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77.

MAY 1970




39

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

[jChart cf] AGGREGATE SERIES

(Apr.)

P

I

61, Business expenditures for new plant
, all

tn\

*j.*tiAt

«Mn««.«*iiwufc

[ U J « i VM MI wXpWlUI UI1 US
l

(arm, rate, bil, dol.)

^p,
f

?

f b] Second anticipations as
4MtrcflDl ofaituai toccentl.

? ^

1 L?T

T? UI ?

lc] First anticipations as

IP?

???

jf

?

i m

Current doto for thoso nortes are shown on page 79.

40




MAY 1970

BCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart Cl

AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.

am (Apr.)
P

(Hay)

(Feb.)

T

410. Manufacturers' safes, total value, Q (bit. dot.)

120-

412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q JbjyojJL
^

414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered low, Q (percent)

10-

416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered

«s
JH

8
30 J

§8

59

S©

63

64

@i

70

1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 79.

MAY 1970




41

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

f Chart Cl 1 AGGREGATE SERIES -Con.

Actual
*-—*
[ Arttidpated . —- J

420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q
(a) Ptrceivt of Kousenokts reporting no change in family income (percent)

(b) Percent of housenoWs reporting higher family income (percent)

G@-

DO : J

(c) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent)

.

, ,.
,,

,

^w*-*'!»,

, ,

,

:,., *

,

-

,

.\

»;

429, Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
j;

!

(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
Hit)

.. /
.-V

:!

I

(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
nt)

.•*•../

ji

!i

'W
.'

i

(c) Mean probabity of decrease in family income (percent)
»t)

. Number of new carsjss&fcrt fey JnuMbQUs, CL
(ann. rato, mU. cars)

*•••.

' . . . - !
.'•*•

""— -•"'

•"•*-<.,.„,'"

«**

v

"

*

Q

!

-rf"*Bl

(a) Actual (Quarterly)

(b) Actual, 2-quarter moving avg.

435, Imtix of consumer sentiment, 0 |Ut Q 1966=100)
10®

11957

SS

59

60

61

62

64

65

66

67

68

S9

70

1971

Current data for these lerlei are shown on page 79.

42




MAY 1970 KCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C2

DIFFUSION INDEXES

I?

IT

Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quartf
D440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)'

0444. Net sates, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

"1957""

SS

§9

60

©i

©3

04

65

70

1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
1
This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; ft may not be reproduced without wrftten permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

KCII

MAY 1970




43

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

Mf)
P

C2

(%?4

(May)

If

P

(Feb.;
I

percent '
[plotted at terminal quarter)

I Actual
Anticipated •••*••••
0450. level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-0 span)1

0460. Seffctg prices, manufacturing and trade [4-Q span)

0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1

0486, Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)

1997

Si

io

©i

i?

68

ii

Current data for these sei-las are shown on page 80.
'thlt Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

44




MAY 1970

ItCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C2

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

T
T"

Diffusion indexes: percent rising
at terminal quarter)
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, at) industries (1-Q span)

!i

..__

(a) Actual expenditures

y

0480. freight carloadings (4-Q span)

480. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span)
[millions of cars]
eg

m

S8

Si

6©

61

64

65

66

6?

7@

1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

KCII MAY

1970




45

Section

D
Chart 1)1

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

FOREIGN TRADE
(My) »4

(Gfey)

500. Merchandise trade balance (Ml do).; MCD rrwvtng avg.-6-temi)

502, Ex^ctt, excBpt mlltary aid (bUBlL; MCD movtag a^

, durables except motor vehicles
moving avg.- tMerm)

506. Export orders, nonetectricaf m»di«wry
[ta^c: 1957-59=100; MCD mofk|

512, General imports (Hi M; MCD moving ave.-4-t*re)

4S

50

51

62

S3

§4

S5

Si

S7

6S

Current data (or those lories are shown on page 82.

46




MAY 1970

ItCII

Section D

Chart D2

ER KEY JNDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

" " "

^ U.S. Balance of Payments, Q ^ |
^

" "

~

'

Billion dollars
520. Liquidity balance basis
(Change in U .$. official reserve assets and change
ItleTIo all forejgnersj "^

. . - ..jl.-ri— •!

-wi ,,.,,_

'

*.'

1

!

[Change in U.S. official reserve assets, and change
InTiquiriraBilflTes pius^ertaYnonliQukl liabilities
to foreign monetary official agencies]

Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)

525, Net capital movements, liquidity balance basis2
(outflow H left scale)

^ rsr^Ks
;.s>v::,.";-

+4 =

520, Liquidity balance
527. Net capital movements,
ft"

(outflow (-) left scatej

522. Official settlements balance

250. Balance on goods and services
(surplus |+) right scale)

I94S 49
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520.
1
The 1st quarter 1970 figures for series 520 and 522 Include $217 million allocation of Special Drawing Rights.

BCD

MAY 1970




87

68

®9 1970

2

Includes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.

47

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
f Chart D2
D2l BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.

Billion dollars
44.

40 =

530. liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstanding at end of period

532. Liquid and certain nonKquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period

4J
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period

49

50

11

Sa

S3

S4

55

5S

57

5S

59

60

61

67

68

Si 1970

Current data for these sories are shown on page 83. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.




MAY 1970

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

™ ™ Excessor receipts^
^ ^
EH Excess of payments

Goods and semces252. Exports

250. Balance on goods and services

'0
Merchandise, adjusted
536. Exports-

Investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services-

current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to I960.

IICII


MAY 1970


49

Section D
Chart D2j BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services

[ Annual rate, bllkm ctotlars
Excess of receipts [inflow]
Excess of payments (outflow)

Investment income—
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad

543. Income on foreign investments in the7 U.S.

Travet545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad

544. Receipts from foreign travelers in tbe U.S.

Military sates and expenditures-

547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
.. -—.*-»*wr*'r'

546. Military sates to foreigners

Transportation and other services-

WZ&S&^tt&Sjtttt/-*^*

549. Payments

Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.




50

MAY 1970

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Annual rate, billion dollars

CZZ2 Excess of receipts (inflow)
dl Excess of payments [outflow)
Direct investments-

561. U.S. investments abroad

560. Foreign investments in the U.S.

Securities investments565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities

564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities

570. Government grants and capital transactions, net

575. Banking and other capital transactions, net

Current data lor these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

MAY 1970



51

Section D
| Chart

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

D3 j FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Receipts and Expenditures

GOO. Federal Surplus or deficit, national income ami product accounts, Q (aon. rate, bN. doJ.j

Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bH. dot.)

602. Federal expenditures, national Income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, M. do).)

49

SO

SI

§9 1970

Currant data for theto »rQos are shown on page 85.

52




MAY 1970

BCII

Section D

IR KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

p

I

264. National defense purchases, QJann. rate, biyoj

616. Defense Department obligations, total (oil. dot; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
{bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

defense
products
(bil. dol.)

Itracuwacds ia_U.S__
(bil. dol.; MOD moving avg.-6-termJ

69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.

IICII

MAY 1970




53

Section i D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS

(HOT.) Pet,)
P
I

(July) (Apr.)
P

IT

M(Feb.)
P

T

{ltidexn357-59 = 100 j

Currant data for those series are shown on page 86,

54




MAY 1970

IM:

INDICATORS

Section D

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.

p

i

Wholesale prices750. All commodities

Current data for these series are shown on page 86.

ltd!

MAY 1970



55

ANALYTICAL

[chart Ef] ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Aug.)

Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. ttoJ.)

206. Potential 6NP1

Actual GNP

207. Gap

1
Current data for those series are shown on page 67.
Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 195!!} from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 196S, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 1st quarter 1970.

56




MAY 1970

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E2

ANALYTICAL RATIOS

(Nov.) (fct)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
I

T

F

T

650. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)

851. Ratio, inventories to sates, manufacturing and trade

852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries

853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer-goods
Jindex:J9j7-59=100) _
„__

Current data for these series are shown on page 88.

ItCII

MAY 1970



57

Section E
Chart E2

ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.

) (flp.)
IT

854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q

855. Ratio, nonagricultural lot) openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed

858, Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm, Q (index: 1957-59 100)

856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers,
manufacturing (1957-59 dollars]

859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagricultural
production or nonsupervisory workers (1957-59 ctoHars

857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)

Current data for these serleis are thown on page 66,


58


MAY 1970

BCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
tf.) (Set)
T

W)
P

(Aug.)
I

M) (Apr.)

(fifes) (

Pern** rising
01. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo, span— , 1-mo. span---)

06. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)

011. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 industries, NICB (3-Q span***, 1-Q span.-.)

034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span]

019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)

023. Industrial mater als prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span-—)

-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span

Current data for these series are shown on pages 89 and 90.

BCII

MAY 1970




59

Section E
Chart E3

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(fc) (fell
1

(Idyl

(Bflay) (Feb.)

[^Percent rising

041. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mp. span—, 1-mo. span-—1

047. Industrial production -24 industries (6-mo, span — , 1-mu. span—-

05S. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo, span-—)

054. Sates of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo span—!

Current data for these series aro shown on page 91.

60




MAY 1970

BCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E5

RATES OF CHANGE

200. (c) GNPJi current dollarsJ1-Q span]

205Jcj GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)

820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56]

48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments

55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities

58

9®

6©

61

©2

63

64

1071

To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index. .Series Finding Guide,* pp. 113 and 114

BCD MAY 1970



61

Section

DM
Lit.

F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart FlT] CONSUMER PRICES

tattex: 1957-59 = 100
Consumer prices781, United States

6f

g©

Current data for these stories ant shown on page 98,

62




MAY 1970

ltd*

•RNATIONAL COMPARISON!

Section F
Chart

F2

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

lade*: 1957*5$ *
Industrial production 47. United States

Current data for these series are shown on page 99.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ MAY 1970
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

63

Sectioh F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart^ FT] STOCK PRICES

|lndex: 1957 5B = «

Stock

Current data for these t cries are shown on page 100.

64




MAY 1970

ltd*

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter

a. Total

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
oil, dol.)

(Ann. ratet
biLdol.)

210. Implicit price deflator

205. Constant (1958) dollars

200. Current dollars

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

a. Total

b. Difference

(Index:
1958=100)

(Index:
1958-100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

774.2
763.5
300.4
816.1

+3.5
+9.3
+16.9
+15.7

+1.8
+4.8
+8.6
+7.8

666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5

-1.6
+4.0
+7.5
+5.5

-0.9
+2.4
+4.5
+3.2

116.2
116.9
118.1
119.4

+0.8
+0.7
+1.2
+1.3

+2.8
+2.4
+4.1
+4.6

835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5

+19.2
+23.4
+17.7
+16.1

+9.4

693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5

+9.8

+11.2
+8,2
+7.4

+12.5
+7.0
+5.7

+5.7
+7.2
+3.9
+3.2

120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2

+1.1
+1.2
1-1.2
+1.3

+3.6
+3.9
+4.3
+4.1

908.7
924.8
942.8
952.2

+16.2
+16.1
+18.0
+9.4

+7.3
+7.1
+7.8
+4.0

723.1
726.7
730.6
729.8

+4-6
+3.6
+3.9
-0.8

+2.5
+2.0
+2.1
-0.4

125.7
127.3
129.0
130.5

+1.5
+1.6
-t-1.7
+1.5

+4.7
+5.0
+5.6
+4-5

r959.6

iH-7.4

1+3.1

r724.3

r-5.5

r-3.0

r!32.5

r+2.0

r+6.2

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter. Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter

215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)

222- Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)

Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)

226- Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

3,903
3,940
4,01*
4,080

3,360
3,372
3,400
r3,417

639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0

615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9

534.4
541.6
550.3
559.8

471.6
476.0
479.4
483.7

2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799

2,378
2,394
2,404
2,419

r4,l67
4,274
4,350
4,418

3,459
3,513
3,538
r3,556

688.8
707.4
724.1
737.3

664.3
680.1
696.1
711.2

575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3

492.1
497.4
498.9
502.1

2,869
2,924
2,946
2,991

2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485

4,488
r4,557
4,633
4,666

3,571
r3,58l
3,590
3,576

751.3
765.7
780.6
786.5

724.4
740.5
756.5
767.4

610.2
622.0
639-0
647.5

502.6
506.2
514.1
514.8

3,014
3,065
3,140
3,172

2,482
2,494
2,526
2,522

r4,690

r3,540

P792.1

r?78.6

r660.4

r518.8

r3,228

r2,536

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to containno seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order™ Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "rtt indicates revised; "p". preliminary;
ft
"e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

MAY 1970



65

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in
current dollars

231. Total in
constant(1958)
dollars

232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

234. Automobiles
233. Durable
goods, total except in current dollars
autost in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bif.dol.)

1967
480.9
439.8
495.7
502.6

424.4
430.5
431.9
434.3

70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2

46.9
47.6
47.9
50.0

23.1
25.9
25.4
25.2

213.2
214.4
215.8
216.8

197.7
201.8
206.6
210.6

520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7

445.6
449.0
458.2'
457.6

79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3

51.1
52.6
54.1
54.9

28.4
29.2
31.7
31.4

226.1
228.5
233.3
234.3

215.1
220.0
225.8
230.1

562.0
572.8
579.8
539.5

First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

462
466.
466.
468.

88.4
90.6
89.8
90.4

57.5
59.2
57.7
58.0

30.9
31.4
32.1
32.4

238.6
242.1
245.1
248.7

235.0
240.1
244.9
250.3

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter.,.
Second quarter. *
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1970
r600.4

First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

255.6

60.4

.7

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

241. [Presidential
fixed investment

240. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Producers'
durable equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

244. Residential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

245. Change in
business inventories

(Ann. rate,
biL dol.)

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3

83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0

29.0
27.2
27.8
27.8

54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2

21.4
23.1
26.5
28.8

+9,0
+3.4
VM
+9.5

119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9

89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5

29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1

59.4
58.1
59.1
61.4

28.6
30.3
29-9
31.9

t-1.6
•»-9.9
+7.2
+10.5

135.2
137.4
U3.3
HI. 8

97.8
101.1
102.5

95.3

32.3
32.1
34.7
34.5

63.0
65.7
66.4
68.0

33-3
32.7
31.4
31.6

-t6.6
46.9
+10.7
+7.7

r104.0

r35.6

r68.5

r30.2

1968
First quarter,,..
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.

r!35.0

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

66




MAY 1970

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

H

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

250. Net exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

252. Exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

260. Total

253. Imports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

262. Federal

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

264. National
defense

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1967
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968

+5.4
+5.8
+5-6
+3.8

45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7

40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8

174.2
178.5
181.3
.186.4

87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5

69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6

86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9

First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

+1.9
+3.4
+3.6
+1.2

47.7
. 50.7
53.4
50.6

45.9
47.3
49.7
49.4

193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7

96.3
99.0
100.0
101.9

76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3

97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8

+1.5
+1.6
+2.7
+2.7

47-6
57.1
57.8
58.6

46.1
55.5
55.2
55.9

210.0
212.9
217.0
218.3

101.6
100.6
103.2
102.3

79.0
78.5
80.3
79.2

108.5
112.3
113.8
116.0

r+3.0

r60.8

r57.8

r221.2

rl02.3

r?8.9

rll8,9

1969
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

i l NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
f
•*• IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1967
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ....
1968

280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income

Nondurable goods

Durable goods

274. Final sales
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

284. Rental income
of persons

275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

151.9
158.3
157.7
160.0

+4.2
+1.5
+4.4
+5.6

230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9

+4.7

+1.8
+3.4
+3.9

456.2
461.1
470.7
481.7

60.8
61.7
62.6
62.3

20.6
20.8
20.9

First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969

166.4
168.9
173.7
176.6

+1.9
+6.8
+5.1
+7.4

246.5
250.4
256.1
256.4

-0.3
+3.1
+2.1
+3.1

495.1
507.0
519.8
532.3

63.2
63.6
64.1
64.1

21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970

181.6
185.5
187.8
189.9

+4.8
+4.9
+7.6
+4.7

259.7
264.1
267.4
271.2

+1.8
+2.1
+3.1
+3.0

546.0
558.2
571.9
581.1

64.6
66.5
67.3
66.7

21.5
21.6
21.7
21.8

p!90.1

P-1.3

P276.2

P+-2.1

r592.0

r66.6

22.0

First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ....

21.0

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

ItCII

MAY 1970



67

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
ENATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter

286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1967
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter. .....
Fourth quarter.. ,,..
1968
First quarter.* . . «• .
Second quarter, ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter. —
Third quarter
*
Fourth quarter. .....
1970
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Qj SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving 292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

bii. dol.)

bil. dol.)

294. Undistributed 296. Capital concorporate profits
sumption
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

78.3
73.3
79.1
81.1

23.5
24.3
25.1
25.9

117-5
113.6
119.9
125.6

40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1

24.8
24.1
24.6
25.5

66.8
67.9
69.2
70.4

-1A.1
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4

82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3

26.7
27.5
28.4
29-3

120.5
128.8
129.1
135.4

39.9
/*2.3
33.2
38.0

20.4
24.1
25.6
23.6

71.7
73.0
73.7
74.6

-11.5
-10.8
-3.5
-0.9

89.5
89.2
88.8
85.2

29.8
30.3
30.9
31.6

138.5
142.7
150.2
147.5

32.5
-33.3
43.1
41.7

21.8
20.8
21.2
17.6

75.9
77.2
78.6
79.9

+0.3
+11.4
47.4

P79.2

32.3

P142.1

r43.5

P15.0

81.3

IH2.4

+8.2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "pw, preliminary;
V, estimated; Ma", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

68




MAY

1970

lt€l»

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

TIMING CLASS ....

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

Job Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

*1. Average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing1

4. Nonagricultural
placements, all
industries1

(Hours)

Year
and
month

(Thous.)

2. Accession rate, *5. Average weekly 3. Layoff rate,
initial claims for
manufacturing
manufacturing1
unemployment
insurance. State
programs *
Per 100 employees)

(Per 100 employees)

(Thous.)

49. Nonagricultural 46. Index of helpjob openings unwanted advertising
filled 1
in newspapers

(Thous.)

(1957-59-100)

1968
January
February
March

40.2
40.7
40.8

478
471
481

4.5
4-5
4.1

206
196
194

1.3
1.3
1.3

359
363
371

191
191
194

April
May
June

40.1
40.9
40.9

487
475
486

4.7
4.6
4.5

193
195
194

1.1
1.3
11
.

380
394
386

197
197
197

July
August
September . ......

40.9
40.7
41.0

520
477
478

4.7
4.6
4.7

189
199
194

1.2

375
367
376

204

1.2
1.2

October
November
December

40.9
40. 8
40.8

466
454
443

4.8
4.6
4.7

188
190
190

1.2
11
.
11
.

374
372
373

223
222
225

January
February
March

40,6
40.1
40.9

448
459
439

4.9
4.6
4.6

H>179

186
185

11
.
11
.
1.2

372
375
365

224
229
231

Apri 1 .
May
June

40.8
40.7
40.7

447
434
456

4.9
4.8
5.0

11
8
182
197

E>1.0
11
.
11
.

377
387
383

233
232
228

July
August
September

40,7
40.6
40,8

438
425

4.8
4.5
4.8

195
196
200

1.2
11
.
1.2

358
346
346

227
224
1)235

October
November
December
1970

40,5

405
401
376

4 7

202

227

2 1
1
210

1.3
12
It4

343

L L

33ft

pop

319

217

387
361
357

4,3
4.3p4.0

314

203
203

r263

1.5
1.7
pi. 8

r292

194

(NA)

P326

(NA)

(NA)

pl86

..

208
218

1969

January
February
March

/iO ^

40 7
..

April
May
June

LCi 3

39 9
40 2

p40.0

421

(NA)

L 6

23?
250

306

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by E); for series that move counter to movements in generaj business activity (series 3, 5,14,.39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). TheV indicates revised; "p" r preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
^•Series that reached their high values prior to 1968 are as follows: Series 1, high value ( 1 6 reached in Mar. 1966: Series
4.)
2
Data
4, high value ( 8 ) in May 1962; Series 2, high value ( . ) in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value ( 3 ) in July 1 6 . 2r>a+.a
56,
52,
47,
96
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

ltd!

MAY 1970



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

ffl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
^^^
LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process. .... ....

Comprehensive Employment

48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate, bit.
man-hours)

1968
January
February
March

*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, tabor
force survey
(Thous.)

*43. Unemployment rate, total

(Percent)

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programsl
(Percent)

131.60
133.29
133.53

66,720
67, 165
67,286

71,035
71,484
71,706

3.6 i
3.8
3.7

2.3
2.3

133 . 54

71 726

13/i 75

67,466
6? fi'JO
6? 816

79 IT'S
72 232

3.5
3 6
3 7

July
August
September

135.24
135 57
135 75

67,945
68 088
68, 195

72,171
72 2/42
72 381

October
November .........
December

135 39
135 83
136.19

68 427
68,664
68,875

January
February
March

137.07
137 . 08
133.44

April
May
June

40. Unemployment rate,
married males

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

(Percent)

2 1
2 2
2 2

16
16

O

17

0 ^

3-7
3 5
3.5

2.3
2 3
2 1

16
16
16

0 6

72 537
72 689
72,913

3 5
3.4
3.3

2 0
2 0
2.0

16
16
1.4

0 ^
0 L

69,199
69,487
69, 710

73,364
73 688
73,940

[uS 3.3

3.4
3.4

2.1
2.1
2.0

1.4
1.4
[H)1.4

0.4
0 4
0 4

69,789
70,013
70,300

73,928
73,544
74,058

3.5
3.5
3.4

2.0
D2. 0
2.1

1.5
1.5
1.5

0.5

139.44
139.87

70,247
70,500
70,390

74,370
74, 528
74,696

3.5
3.5
3.8

2.2
2.1
2.2

1.6
1.5
1.7

0.5
0.5
0.5

139.80
139.90
139.96

,

0.6
0.6
0.6

138.42
139.15
139.43

April
May
June...

1.7
1.7
1.7

70,651
70, 635
70, 679

74,999
75,094
75,302

3.8
3.5
3.5

2.2
2.3
2.3

1.6
1.5
1.7

1ft) 0.4
0.5
0.5

1.8

13/L

„„.

91

2.2

o *>
e

0 *>

0 *i

0 4

1969

July
August
September, . ,

gj)no.ig

October
November
December

0.5
0.5

1970
January
February
March

139.31
r 139. 5 5
rl39 . 80

70,818
r 71, 004
(H) r71,060

H> 75, 615
75,323
75,562

3.9
4.2
4.4

2.5
2.6
2.7

2.0
2.2

0.5
0.6
0.7

April
May
June

p!39.6l

p70,972

75,338

4.8

3.1

2.4

0.?

|

luly
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14,39, 40, 43,44 f 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico whieh is included in figures published by source agency.

70




MAY 1970

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

BBj PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR S

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Production

*20(T. Gross national product
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)

Year
and
month

*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

1968
January
February
March

*47. Index of
industrial production

(1957-59=100)

*52. Personal
income

(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
fail, dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

57. Final sales *54. Sales of
(series 200
retail stores
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

161.5
162.5
163.3

656.3
664.6
671.9

170.4
173.6
174.3

93,155
93,729
94,431

833.6

705.8

163.0
164.9
166.0

674.2
680.2
685.9

174.3
177.1
177.9

94,521
96,036
97,390

848.8

27,760
28,125
28,287

876.4

712.8

166.5
165.1
165.9

691.0
696.1
701.1

179.0
179.7
181.8

98,335
97,048
'98,519

869.2

28,641
28,725
28,286

892.5

718.5

166.3
167.8
168.7

706.2
711.5
716.0

183.3
184.6
186.7

'99,643
100, 107
98,787

882.0

28,665
28,771
28,463

908.7

723.1

169.1
170.1
171.4

718.7
723.9
730.7

187.1
187.6
190.7

100,103
101,358
101,475

902.1

28,955
29,257
28,881

924.8

726.7

171.7
172.5
173.7

735.3
740.0
746.1

192.1
193.1
195.3

102,319
103,232
104,127

917.9

29,409
29,386
29,371

942.8

(H>730.6

E>174.6
174.3
173.9

751.4
757.5
760.7

196.0
198.1
198.6

104,201
104,644
105,903

932.0

29,090
29,346
29,259

952.2

729.8

173.1
171.4
171.1

763.9
767.6
770.6

198.9
198.7

E> 200.3

H> 106, 832
105,666
104,758

944.5

29,620
29,471
29,419

[LT>r959.6

r724.3

rl70.4
rl70.5
rl71.1

r774.3
r778.3
r?83.3

198.2
198.3
r200.2

104, 961
r 106,139
p!05,073

H>r958.9

29,570
E>r29,980
p29,734

P170.4

[R>p801.1

P199.0

(NA)

835.3

693.3

April
May
June

358.7

July
August
September ... ,
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April .
May
June

Comprehensive Income

...

July
August
September
October
November
December
1970
January
February
... .
March
April
May
June

27,014
27,420

27,964

(NA)

July
August
September
October ....
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>- Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 68). The V indicates revised; "p ff , preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.

BCII

MAY 1970




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

fB FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process. . . ,

FOrma

StnerpriBsUesneSS

*12. Index of net
business formation
Year
and
month
(1957-59-100)

New lnvestment Commitments

13. Number of new *6. Value of
business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(Number)

(Bil.dol.)

1968
January
February
March

17,223
18,014
17,974

26.84

114.7
113.8

April
May
June

112.8
112.7
114.5

18, 659
18, 796
19, 197

27.37

July
August
September

119.0
1 91
1 .
121.2

19,530
20,011
20,986

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March

123.9
123.4
125.3
125.2

8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1

(1957-59=100)

*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bit. dol.)

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol,)

166
152
169

6.50
6.51
6.67

5.80

5.47
5.38
5.38

164
172
160

6.20
6.62
7.20

5.74

5.49
5.45
5.97

26.92
27-33
28.38

187
192
183

6.96
7.85
7.20

6.59

5.71
6.03
5.92

21,394
21,155
20,292

30.28
29-32
29.38

200
183
179

8.18
7.29
7.79

6.63

6.55
6.09
6.24

IH> 125.8

29.68
30.48
29.70

204
205
182

7.98
7.84
7.50

6.65

123.2

20,578
22,199
21,353

6.20
6.51
6.41

April
May
June

123.8
123.1
123.6

23,220
23,185
23,528

30.94
30.00

183
210
186

8.26
8.01
7.85

7.83

...

6.43
6.53

July
August
September

124.6
124.2
123-1

23,554
22,967
23,138

30.48
D 32.04

31.07

180
216
173

7.76
7.60
8.65

[H>7,95
...

6.35
6.24
[H)?.3S

123.2
121.7
122.3

D 24,046
23,308
22,137

31.80
31.19

195
178

8.00
7.95
8.34

r?,59

6.45
6.70
6.49

p6.47

6.41
6.60
rS.93

October
November
December
1970
January
February
March

113.5

...

121.9
rm.7

pl!7.1
(NA)

April
May
lune
July.,,
August
September

22,072
r23,249
£21,091
(NA)

26.81

28.00
27.17

26.70

29.17

30.30

D218

29.66
r28,63

205
215
208

g> 8.73

P28.91

203

...

7.10

p8.24

28.91

•8.55
r7.60

P6.C)6

....,

October ,
November
December
NOTE; Series aro seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Thls is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

72




MAY 1970

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS--Con.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

New Investment Commitments-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

Backlog of Investment Commitments

Investment Expenditures

9. Construction
7. New private
contracts, commer- nonfarm housing
cial and industrial units started 3
buildings1
(Mil. sq. ft. floor
space)

(Ann. rate, thous.)

*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits

96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing

(1957-59=100)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil. do!.)

1968
January
February
March

64.51
61.39
66.61

1,320
1,461
1,441

120.0
121.4

80.49
80.59
81.75

April
May
June

47.09
66.96
66.35

1,504
1,365
1,376

113.7
106.9
107.0

82.24
81.90
80.97

July
August
September

71.65
66.15
61.59

1,536
1,480
1,506

107.7
107.8
116.4

79.68
80.18
80.57

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March

79.63
69.70
71.47

1,551
1,663
1,602

115.2
119.1
122.3

81.89
82.43
84.07

[0)94.43
69.93
63.50

1,674
1,618
1,571

117.2
123.4
118.7

84.43
84.99
85.16

65.82
85.60
80.37

1,490
1,519
1,483

E>125.5
110.6
112.0

86.46
0)86.88
85.91

...
21.86

July

73-70
71.96
68.90

1,406
1,362
1,462

102.6
104.0
100.4

86.37
85.98
86.38

...
r22.62

79.96
64.31
86.89

1,377
1,261
1,346

98.9
99.5
103-5

86.29
86.53
86,67

. *.
D 122.98

1,044

August
September .
October
November .
December
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June

97.2

88.86
80.95
67.11

rl,287
rl,364

84.6
95.0
r91.8

85.54
84.80'
r83.72

64.00

pi, 164

p!04.4

p82.86

69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

20.48

April
Mav
June

*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total

68.09

80.77
80.79
80.59

66.29

81.59
80.32
80.86

67.77

80.09
82.40
85.08

69.05

86.15
88.21
85.46

72.52

90.00
91.42
90.31

73.94

88.84
89.84
91.86

19.01

18.93

19.44

20.02

77.84
.. .
[R)77.84
...

aSO.OO
P22.57

...

91.20
94.24
D99.50

94.99
93.92
90.90
94 ..02
r94-37
P92.79
(NA)

a81.7*8

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
•"•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
.
2
Revised figures for November and December 1 6 are 1,547 and 1,338, respectively. The high value ( , 3 ; was reached xn
97
183
Oct. 1963.

ltd) MAY 1970




73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

HI

^^^

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS

245. Change in *31. Change in
business 1 book value of
inventories
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil. dot.)

1968
January
February
March

t-1.6

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Inventories

37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories
(Percent
reporting)

20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60
daysor longer®1
(Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliverias®1
(Percent
reporting)

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1

(Bil. dol.)

*71. Manufac- 65. Manufacturers' inventuring and
trade invento- tories of
finished goods,
ries, book
value
book value
(Bil.dol.)

(Bit. doL)

64
61
64

50
55
54

-0.09
+0.10
+1.16

1/1/1.7/4

52

-0.5
+1.2
+0.9

U5.08

26.97
27.09
27.21

+4.0
+8.5
+4 1

55
53

">Vi.™

April
May
June

+9 Q

+15.9
+15 9
+8.5

51
55
59

+4.0
+4.7
+1,7

68
64
67

52
52
52

+0.48
-0.34
-0.93

146.40
147.73
148.44

27.35
27.59
27.64

July
August
September

+7.2

+6.4
+10.2
+9.9

59
55
40

+3.5
+2.0
-0.9

68
66
60

56
46
46

-1.29
+0.49
+0.40

148.97
149.82
150.65

27.79
28.15
28.44

+16.4
1=9.8

+1.9
-2.2
+0.6

62
60
60

52

1-11.2

42
U
43

60
56

+1.32
+0.54
+1.64

152.02
152.83
153.76

28.64
28.92
29.13

+3-9
+15.0
+12.8

43
47
49

-0.4
-0.4
+4.0

57
58
63

62
61
61

+0.36
+0.56
+0.16

154.09
155.34
156.40

29. oa
29.41
39.61

+U2.9

49
51
49

+1.3
+2.8
-1.1

65
64
66

68
69
70

+1.30
+0.42
-0.97

158.60
159.26

157. 43

29.98

+12.3
+12.9

50
51
50

+1.1
-0.5
+0.7

59
63
65

66
68
66

+0.46
-0.38
+0.39

160.63
161.66
162.73

+18.2
+8.7
+13.6

54
57
48

+3-5
+0.1
1-2,5

63
65
65

65
62
64

-0.09
+0.24
+0.14

164.25
164.97

-3-5

50
50
51

-1.6

61
62
56

56
58
50

-1.13
-0.74
r-1.08

r 166. 79

31.74
32.16

i>p!66.94

[fi}32.25

45

(NA)

60
57

52

p-0.86

(NA)

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September,..,
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June

+10.5

+6.6

+6.9

+13.5
+7.9

1-16.4
+10.7

+7.7

m-0.8

I - 17
H1 .

ptl.8

(NA)

+2.2
+2.0

166. U

165.82

30.41

30.45
30.66
30.96
31.10
31.21
31.54
31.64

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in genera! business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39>, 40, 43, 44, 45 f and 93), current low values are indicated by
G). Series numbers are for Identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1968 are as follows: Series 245, high value (+19.8) reached in 4th quarter
1966; Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value ( 3 , in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+5.7), in
6)
Aug. 1966; Series 26, high value ( 5 , in Oet. 1966; Series 32, high value ( 6 , in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value ( 1 8 )
7)
8)
+.2,
in Sept. 1966.

74




MAY 1970 ltd)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0 PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Sensitive Com- c, . .D
tnodity Prices MOCK ' rices

*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices® 1

Year
and
month

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

*19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, ate profits
500 common after taxes
stocks©

1957-59=100) (1941-43-10)

1968
January
February
March

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

22. Ratio of
jrofits to
ncome orignating, corporate, all
ndus.1
(Percent)

(Cents)

95.04
90.75
89 09

47.9

98.3
96.1
95.6

95.67
97.87
100.53

49.7

11.4

5.0

94.4
94.8
96 1

100.30
98.11
101.34

50.0

11.2

5.1

97.5
100.3
100.7

103.76
105.40
E)1Q6.48

51.6

January
February
March

103.4
106.3
106.9

102.04
101.46
99.30

0)51.7

April
May
June

109.3

110.4

in. 6

101.26
1^4.62
99.14

July
August
September

112.4
115.0
117.4

October
November
December

115 6
115.6

,

July
August
September .
October
November
December

100.6
100 .,6

55. Index of
wholesale
prices, Indus,
cornmbd.®

58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods©

5 1

108.1

100 ,.8

107.8
108 3
108 6

100,8
100,3
100,5

108.8
108.6
108.8

.100,3

11.5

1957-59=100)

107.5
108.1
108.0

109.1
109.1
109 4

0.718

108.2
108.8
108.9

108.8
108.9
109 2

109.7
109.5
109 9

0.722

109.7
109.9
110.2

110.0
110.3
110.5

0.732

110.9
111.4
112.0

1 13
1.
1 17
1.
112.2

0.745

112.2
1 15
1.
112.2

112.1
112.2
112.2

112.4
112.8
113.2

0.755

112.9
112.8
113.2

112.4
112.8
113.2

113.5
113.6

113*9

113.8
114.2
114.6

114.6
114.9
115.3

r98.9

115.1
115.5
115.8

116.1
116,4
116.6

P99.2

DH6.2

[H> 116. 9

98 ,.7

98,7

5.1

*62. Index of
abor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.

o 719

98*7
11.4

Unit Labor Costs

68, Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
1957-59-100) 1957-59=100) 1957-59=100) (Dollars)

* 17. Ratio,
15. Profits
after taxes) irice to unit
jer dollar of abor cost
sales, all mfg. ndex, mfg.1
corp.1

99.8
99-5
100 1

April
May
June

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

Profits and Profit Margins

LAGGING INDICATORS

99*2
98.9

108 7
108 9

109.4
110.9
rn i

.A

1 14
1.
1 12
1.

1 17
1.

1969
99.2

5.0

100.2
100.0

51.3

11.0

4.9

100.0
100.0

94.71
94.18
94.51

49.7

10.4

4.8

95.52
96.21
91 11

49.0.

90.31
87.16
88.65

117 p

1.
12

P46.1

99.6

100.3
99.0
99.0

99 0
10.2

4-5

98.4

97*8

113.2

0.767

a 730

114-7
115.0
115.8
116.8
117.9

1970
January
February
March
April
May
June

119.4

120.0
119.2
3

118.7
184
1.

3

85.95
73.71

r98.4

p9.6

(NA)

r99.1

DO. 797

[y)r 118.0
rl!7.4
rl!7.9
pl!7.8

July ....,
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'by (H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[fi>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
^•Series that reached their high values prior to 1968 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value ( 3 9 , in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value ( . ) in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value
1/)
58,
3
( 0 . ) in July 1 6 . 5Average for May 5, 12, and 19.
152,
96
Average for May 19, 20, and 21.

BUI

MAY 1970



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q MONEY AND CREDIT

-

LEADING INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....

Minor Economic
Process

Flows of Money and Credit

98, Change in
money supply
and time
deposits l
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Year
and
month

85. Change in
U.S. money
supply

(Ann. rate,
percent)

33. Net change in
mortgage debt,
held by fin. tnst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Credit Difficulties

*113. Net change 112. Change in
business loans
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

110. Total private borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

14. Current liabilities of busness failures©

39. Delinquency
ratet 30 days
and over, total
installment loans

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

1968

January
February
March..

4-4.32
+7.80
+7.44

+6.00
+4.56
+5-88

+20.32
+19.27
+19.72

+4.79
+8.83
+7.46

+6.04
+3.14
+2.98

74,232

104.49
79.60

...

88.59

* •*

April
May
June

+4.56
+7.08
+5.76

+5.88
+11.04
+9.00

+19.08
+21.64
+18.18

+7.69
+8.78
+8.59

+14.00
+2.09
+5.76

80.11
91.41
74.66

1.56

72,528

July
August
September

+12.48
+12.96
+9.36

+8.88
+8.88
+2.52

+17.77
+18.28
+18.86

+10.28
+11.21
+8.58

+4.21
+7.99
+7.90

88,656

90.27
65.77
58.65

October
November
December

+10.56
+13.80
+32.12

+2.52
+11.28
+7.44

+20.39
+21.6?

D +25.51

]H>+11.36
+10.01
+9.30

+9.89
+11.30
+13.26

100,884

65.38
D5S.65
83.41

-2.16
-0.96
+1.20

+6.12
+3.12
+3.00

+20.56
+23.66
r+19.61

+7.69
+9.58
+7.75

fi> +U.88
+8.88
-7.15

r94,192

75.03
89.99
84.12

April
May
June.,. .„

+3-96
-1.20
-0.60

+7.92
+1.20
+4.20

+21.92
+19.44
+22.09

+9.12
+10.15
+9.54

+3.1.64
+8.14
+10.30

|R>rlQ2,032

118.76
92.60
91.92

July
August
September

-8.40
-10.56
-1.20

+1.80
-1.80

+7.46
+7.20
+8.38

-2.86
1-4.13
+8.76

r89,7!6

0.00

+16.56
+21.02
+20.92

112.73
62.83
73.70

October
November
December

-1.56
+0.36
+3.00

+0.60
+1.20
+1.80

+18.66
+19.61
+1A.41

+8.03
+7.44
+4.98

+7,69
-X.30
+1T..94

r81,772

116.44
127. H
96.85

-1.56
-5.76
+13.80

4-9.00
-10.80

E> +13.20

+16.63
r+14.53
p+13.68

+4.56
+5*02
+2.38

-12.71
r+S.48
r-2.39

p78,784

pfl6.32

p+10.68

(NA)

p-2.09

....

1.54

1.57

1.56

[H)1.50
1.'67

1969

January
February
March

„.,

1.55

1.59
11

1.65

1.70

1.71
1.81

1970

January
February
March
April
May
June

c,

(NA)

137.28
139.39
120.02

1.79

131.90

(NA)

July
August.
September . .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement,
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to
IH)Series numbers are for identification
preceded by an asterisk (*} are included in the 1966
and "NA", not available,
1

Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are

The high values (+16.68) was reached in February 1967.

76




MAY 1970

IICII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

LAGGING INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
an k
Rej?e r v es

93. Free
reserves®
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)

Money Market Interest Rates

Outstanding Debt

114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115- Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercial
and industrial
bond yields© bond yields© bond yields® installment
bill rate©
oans outstanddebt
ng, weekly re*
porting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)

"XSf&Sf*

118. Mortgage
*67. Bank
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ©
loans, 35
cities®
(Percent)

(Percent)

1968
January
February
March

+144
+38
-315

5.08
4-97
5.14

6.57
6.57
6.80

5.18
5,16
5.39

4.29
4,,3l
4.54

79,579
80,315
80,937

65,363
65,601
66,063

6.36

6.81
6.78
6.83

April
May
June

-413
-326
-341

5.36
5.62
5.54

6.79
7.00
7.02

5.28
5.40
5.23

4.34
4.54
4.50

81,578
82,310
83,026

66,844
67,171
67,635

6.84
.. .

6.94
(NA)
7.52

July
August
September

-226
-190
-132

5.38
5.10
5.20

6.91
6.54
6.69

5.09
5.04
5.09

4.33
4.21
4.38

83,883
84,817
85,532

68,313
68,904
69,433

6.89
...

7.42
7.35
7.28

October
November
December

-16?
-245
-310

5.33
5.49
5.92

6.88
7.00
7-28

5.24
5.36
5.66

4.49
4.60
4.82

86,479
87,313
88,088

70,406
71,680
72,490

6.61
...

7.29
7.36
7.50

1969
January
February
March

-480
-596
-701

6.18
6 16
6.08

7.29
7 33
7.76

5.74
5.86
6.05

4.85
4.98
5.26

88,729
89,527
90,173

73,410
74,472
74,748

7.32

(NA)
7.99
8.05

-8LL

6.15
6 08
6.49

7.54
7 62
8.04

5.84
5.85
6.05

5.19
5.33
5.76

90,933
91,779
92,574

75,900
76,867
76,909

7.86

8.06
8.06
8.35

-9A6
-831

7.00
7.01
7.13

8.06
8.05
8.36

6.07
6.02
6.32

5.75
6.00
6.26

93,196
93,796
94,494

76,860
77,746
78,254

8.82

8.36
8.36
8.40

October
November
December
1970

-992
-988
-829

7-04
7.19
7-72

8.46
8.94
[H)9.22

6.27
6.52
6.81

6.09
6.30
[H}6.82

95,163
95,783
96,198

78,513
78,537
E> »?64

8.83

January
February
March

-799
-819

9.00
8.84
9.00

(H)6.86
6.44
6.39

6.65
6.36
6.03

96,578
96,996
E>97,194

78,570
r 79, 005
r78,439

H>8.86

r-781

fH>7.91
7.16
6.71

p-751

6.48

9.09

Apri I
May
June

...

. . ..-.

July
August
September

Ifft 1 10?
-1 064
-1,074

April
May
June

6.53

6.49

(NA)

80

p78,144

8.48
8.48
8.62

(NA)

[H>9.29
^9.20
9.10

July
August
September
October
November
December

. .

NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by g>; for series that move counter to movements in genera! business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.

KCII

MAY



1970

77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

0 COMPOSITE INDEXES
810* Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted 1
(series 1, 5, 6,

Year

and

month

10, 12, 16, 17,
19, 23, 29, 31,
113)
(1963-100)

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41, 43,

830. Six
taggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
71, 72)

47, 52, 56)

Leading Indicator Subgroups
813, Marginal
employment ad*
justments
(series i, 2, 3,

5) 2

814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,

12, 29)

(1963-100)

(1963-100)

(1963-100)

(1963-100)

815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 2 25,
23,
31,37)

816. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive
financial flows
ity (series 16.
(series 33, 85,
17, 19)2

112, 113)

(1963-100)

(1963-100)

(1963-100)

1968
January
February
March ..

134.6
137.3
137.8

149.9
151.7
152.9

157.2
159.0
159.7

104.6
105.8
105.3

112.6
113.0

no. 4

102.0
102.3
102.8

115.4
114.0
114.1

100.5
100.4
100.6

April

137.9
139.1
140.1

153.7
154.9
156.3

162.4
163.7
164.4

105.9
106.3
106.8

111.3
111.1
112.2

102.7
101.8
100.9

116.0
116.5
117.4

102.6
102.8
101.7

141.6
142.0
143. 6

157. a

157.3
159.0

164.1
166.7
167.7

107.1
106.2
107.0

113.8
114.9
116.1

100.1
101.6
100.1

117.4
115.8
116.7

[H> 104.3
101.5
99.6

147.3
147.2
143.6

160.2
162.1
163.0

168.6
170.7
173.7

107.3
107.1
107.2

117.6
119.1

ns.s

102.1
101.9
102.9

117. a
118.7
119.0

102.1
103.2
103.3

He. 6
150.6
150.1

164.3
166.3
167.3

176.5
179.2
181.4

107.7
106.1
107.1

11.9.0
B>H9.9
117.9

102.0
104.5
104.3

118.2
118.9
118.2

101.6
102,1
100.1

152.4
152.5
151.6

167.9
169.2
171.2

182.7
184.8
187.8

108.3
107.6
107.3

U9.8
117.8
117.6

105.9
105.8
104.2

118.2
119.2
117.7

102.6
101.0
102.1

152.0
151.6
E> 153.3

171.5
172.6
172.2

190.9
195.1
196.0

106.7
106.3
106.6

117.9
117.5

na.4

106.5
106.2
107.4

116.6
115.2
115.1

97.9
98.9
100.3

153.1
152.1
rl52.1

173.1
173.4
173.4

198.8
198.2
B> 200.9

105.6
105.1
105.2

117.6
116.8
117.4

107.5
107.2
107.0

115.2
114.8
rU2.6

99.6
90.6
97.3

January .
February
March

r!49.6
r!50.6
rlAS.O

172.8
rl73.2
r 173.1

r200.4
rl99.9
r!99.2

103.0
101.3
plOO.7

115.3
116.4

rll3.1

105.1
r 107.0
r!05.7

rU2.3
rill. 5
rill. 9

96.6
95.1
P96.6

April

PH47.8

[H)pl73.7

P199.5

(NA)

PH5.5

p!04.3

plll.2

(NA)

May

June... . . . .
July
August
September

,.

October
November ,
December .

1969
January . (
February
March
April

„.
.,

May

June
July
August
September.
October ,
November . ,
December

1970

May . .

June

July. . . . . . . . . . .
August
.,
September
October
November
December . .. »
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are
indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39,40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
10). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titlos and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p"t preliminary; "e", estimated; V, anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index ©f 5 coincident indicators. For historical
data prior to reverse trend adjustment, see series 811 in appendix C of the September 1969 issue.
2
Series that reached their high values prior to 1968 are as follows: Series 813. high value ( 0 . ) reached in March 1966;
194
Series 815, high value (110.1) reached in March 1966; Series 816, high value ( 2 . ) reached in February 1966.
101

78




MAY 1970

ltd*

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value

b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low

(Bil.dol.)

(Percent)

416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
1966=100)

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

65.23
65,60
65.48
65.66

100.7
100.3
102.2
102.7

100.9
100.9
103.0
103.0

135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7

80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8

30
29
23
22

40
40
41
38

92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9

68.09
66.29
67.77
69.05

100.0
104.0
102.7
103.9

101.2
102.1
105.1
103.1

145.2
149.5
152.7
156.6

83.8
85.6
87.1
88.6

22
22
21
16

35
35
40
42

95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1

72.52
73.94
77.84
77,<84

102.7
104.4
101*5

102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3

159.2
161.8
167.1
168.3

90.3
92.2
94.2
95.9

18
19
22
23

43
38
39
41

95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7

(NA)

(NA)

al68.4
a!70.6

a97.0
a98.8

(NA)

(NA)

78.1

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

99.5

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter..

aSO.OO
a81.78

AGGREGATE SERIES--Con.
Year
and
quarter

420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-a. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)

(Percent)

c. Lower
income
(Percent)

425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)

430. Household purchases of new cars

Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)

2-quarter moving average
d. Anticipated
c. Anticias percent of
pated
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate, actual
mil, cars)
mil, cars)
(Percent)

b. Actual

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

52.3
47.5
4.
81
51.2

36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0

ll.l
10.9
11.0
10.1

16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2

10.1
9.9
11.2
10.2

5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0

7.4
7.9
8.7
7.8

7.1
7.7
8.3
8.3

7.4
7.6
7.6

96
92
92

52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7

36.4
35.9
37.3
37.4

10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1

19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7

13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2

5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5

8.1
8.4
8.1
7.7

7.9
8.3
8.2
7.9

7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3

99
92
96
105

52.7
45.6

35.4
41.3

11.3
12.4

16.5
18.1
1.
86
17.6

11.3
12.0
13.0
1.
16

5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0

7.1

7.4

8.0
7.9
7.5

108

20.1
19.9

13.8
12.9

6.3
7.0

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

ItCIt

MAY 1970



79

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter

D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1

D440. New orders, manufacturing1

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

0446. Nunta of employees,
manufacturing and trade1

D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual
(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1967
71
72
69
72

82
82
80
81

65
65
6k
69

75
74
76
76

71
70
72
74

80
82
82
82

58
53
53

60
60
60
60

73
73
79
80

80
83
82
81

70
73
72
74

74
80
78
73

79
82
82
84

82
86
86
84

57
60
53
60

60
60
58
60

81
80
76
72

82
85
83
80

70
74
68
66

78
79
77
76

80
84
78
76

86
88
86
83

59
60
58
58

60
60
60
59

(NA)

76
71

(NA)

70
66

(NA)

74
73

(NA)

53
56

First quarter.,.
Second quarter.,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter.,

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter,.

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter

0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual

Anticipated

Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade 1
Actual

Anticipated

D462. Manufacturing1
Actual

Anticipated

D464. Wholesale trade1
Anticipated

Actual

D466. Retail trade1
Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

68
66
65
64

65
66
63
62

72
72
76
78

75
72
70
72

70
70
72
73

74
72
68
70

74
74
80
82

76
73
69
74

74
80
84

76
76
72
78

68
68
70
70

63
66
67
66

78
80
81
84

76
79
78
78

74
76
78
80

74
76
75
76

81
82
82
35

78
82
73
78

88
88
88
92

81
84
86
87

71
70
70
68

66
68
66
66

84
84
85
85

78
80
80
81

82
80
82
82

75
79
78
80

85
85
86
85

79
80
80
80

91
90
90
89

34
84
B4
86

(NA)

62
61

(NA)

78
78

(NA)

79
76

(NA)

77
80

(NA)

80
80

1967
First quarter.. ,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter,..
Second quarter,
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ,.
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r ff indicates revised; "p"» preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA" t not available.
1
Thi8 la a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bratlgtreet, Inc.

80




MAY 1970

ltd*

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

KB DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.

Year
and
quarter

D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
a. Actual
expenditures

c. First
anticipations

b. Second
anticipations

(i-Q span)

{1-Q span)

D480. Freight car loadings @
b. Anticipations

a. Actual
carloadings

(1-Q span)

480. Change in
freight carloadings©

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(Thous. of cars4-Q span)

1967

First quarter
Second Quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

41.7
47.2

50.0
50.0
52.8
63.9

42.1
31.6
10.5
42.1

78.9
52.6
78.9
73.7

-51
-88
-130
-88

66.7
47.2
66.7
50.0

61.1
83.3
75.0
88.9

55.6
61.1
66,7
55.6

31.6
68.4
68.4
57.9

73.7
63.2
73-7
68.4

-16
+29
+52
- 1
1

83.3
66.7
75.0
41.7

94.4
83.3
61.1
55.6

58.3
63.9
66.7
58.3

52.6
47.4
(NA)

78.9
89.5
84.2
84.2

-19
-10
-5
+14

(NA)

69.4

38.9
55.6

73.7
47.4

p-6

50.0

41.7
25.0
5^.3

50.0
55.6

1968

First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969

First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by <§>. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; up", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

MAY 1970



81

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil. dol.)

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts

(MIL dol,)

508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery

(1957-5^100)

(Mil. dol.)

1968
January
„....
February
March

+128
-KL84
-150

2,814
2,775
2,439

909
1,007
1,314

215
260

April
May
June

+251
-15
+78

2,855
2,740
2,870

917
1,04?
989

244
237
223

a, 792

July
August.
September

+133
+78
+260

2,858
2,950
3,211

934
988
923

246
240
256

2,725
2,872
2,951

-105

2 611
2 , Q79
7 (£
2,977

1 268
qoe
7*P
1,082

244

9 7^6
o fiiJ'i
d,Ql$2

2 086
2

&1L
1 0 01
,P7l

. ..

October . . .
November
December
1969
January
February . .
March
,

4-&Q
TO7

+70
+72
QEd

-v5°
i 90 T

April
May
June

+180

July
August
September

+102
+193
+271
+140
+153

+20
+26

.

October,,...,.,
November
,
December
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June

,

. ..

+232
+56
+372

OQC
>£i?

252

QQO

&}£

239

2,687
2,592
2,588
2,604
2,755

a, 908

9L9

n tn i

r)Lf\

2oU
00*3
2<d4

^ ^.CQ
4,653
fyjf.
a iVro

1 Q7
3 >J-7f

111 fi

3 353
3 296
3,211

1 1 0
1

248

1 222

?^/L

^ 173
^ 97^

1 211

281

^ 18^

3 168
3,373
3,326

1 215
1,239

291
248
2?6

1 066

3,362
3,367
3,239

1 341
1,312
1,370

13 7
, 1

^ 180
1 QS^

265

^ 999

233
244

3,214
3,007

+165

3,305
3,628
3,379

1,174
rl,56l
pi 564

232
r243
T325S

3 ?^0
3,256
3.P14

+202

^ /L*50

(MA)

(NA)

3 PL&

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; ttft preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" f not available.

82




MAY 1970

lltll

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter

250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants

U.S, balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance
basis

522. Official settlements
basis

(Mil. dol,)

Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
and errors and omissions
525. Liquidity balance
basis1

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

527. 2
Official settlements
basis
(Mil.dol,)

(Mil.dol.)

1967
1,361
1,451
1,404
961

-1,856
-1,7^1
-2,435
-2,649

-3,072
-2,170
-1,475
-1,878

471
841
909
301

-1,035
-832
-1,048
+561

+712
-812
+66

r+1,192
r+1,299
r-615
r+837

348
290*
706
P729

-2,023
-4,178
-3,314

P-3,096

(NA)

-495
-330
-1,031
-1,683

-1,711

-564
+9

-379
+1,553

-139
+862

+367

r-1,613
r-3,818
r-2,309
r+532

First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter,..
Fourth quarter..

-719

-71
-917

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

+97

-850

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

+784

+936
-1,633
P+552

1970
3

5

First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter,.

P-1,727

(NA)

(NA)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Year
and
quarter

530. Liquid
liabilities
to all
foreigners3©

il. dol.)

532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies3®
(Mil. dol.)

534. U.S.
official
reserve 4
assets ®

Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
252. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. doi.)

Merchandise, adjusted

Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total

253, Imports

536. Exports

537. Imports

540. Exports

541. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

7,688
7,723
7,669

6,660
6,465
6,5^2
7,154

3,773
3,761
3,908
4,066

3,440
3,568
3,631
3,552

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

28,990
29,620
31,211
33,119

16,295
17,424
1,1
789
1,0
942

13,855
14,274
1,4
469
14,830

11,461
1,8
144
11,577
1,6
16?

1,0
010
10,033
1,7
013
10,706

32,482
32,514
33,493
33,617

1,0
84?
16,994
17,493
18,576

13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710

11,934
12,668
13,344
12,653

11,463
11,827
12,435
12,352

8,395
8,879
8,383

7,817
8,131
8,566
8,458

3,993
4,273
4,465
4,270

3,646
3,696
3,869
3,894

34,930
39,045
42,703
p41,876

16,911
16,005
17,735
Pl7,151

15,758
16,057
16,743
pl6,964

11,919
14,254
14,55.3
pl4,66l

11,571
13,964
13,347
Pl3,932

r7,472
r9,583
r9,580
r9,834

r7,575
r9,608
r9,262
r9,392

,
4,655
4,972
P4,832

4,365
464
,0
P4,556

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p!0,2!8

p9,699

(NA)

(NA)

7,601

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

7,941

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
,"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available,
3
^•Series 520 minus series 250. 5 2Series 522 minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at the end of quarter.
^Reserve
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of
6
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). Includes allocations of Special Drawing Rights
of $317 million, on a seasonally adjusted basis. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
BCIt MAY 1970




83

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)

Year
and
quarter

(Mil. dol.)

6

(Mif. dol.)

Transportation and other services

Military transactions

Travel

Income on investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad

544. Receipts 545. Payments 546. Sales under 547. Military
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad
tracts
elers jn the U.S, abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

548. Receipts
from

(Mil. dol.)

549. Payments
for

(Mil. dol.)

1967
1,612
1,580
1,801
1,879

584
591
580
607

416
391
416
A23

701
841
914
739

333
335
239
332

1,085
1,075
1,106
1,112

1,412
1,455
1,452
1,432

1,070
1,061
1,031
1,094

1,771
1,973
2,040
1,917

671
742
770
749

440
A24
450
456

763
732
792
735

305
353
406
364

1,102
1,116
1,143
1,169

1,477
1,523
1,569
1,533

1,110
1,106
1,164
1,241

2,117
2,148

504
516
523

821
855

2,362

893
1,087
1,255

890

pl,196

P509

806
P

414
331
41?
P341

1,204
1,208
1,220

2,270
P

First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter. „

pl,249

1,406
1,660
1,670
pi,735

1,074
1,215
1,239
pl,305

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First Quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

(NA)

(NA)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Year
and
quarter

Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)

Securities investments

561, U.S. investments 564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
abroad
of foreign securities
of U.S. securities
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net

(Mil. dol.)

575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net

(MIL dol.)

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

64
70
12
112

717
533
947
956

133
329
520
34

223
266
476
301

-1,121
-955
-961
-1,174

462
467
-329
-199

251
5
23
41

472
1,009
1,262
283

839
1,116
1,115
1,290

311
164
337
455

-977
-359
-788
-366

230
245

237
169
139
P203

928
1,057
1,134
P58

1,373
337
393
930

323
427
562

(NA)

(NA)

P277

P168

1968
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

96

577

1969
First quarter,..
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

69

-83
-635

-1,343
-1,322
P-595

p-293

(NA)

(NA)

408

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the bacx of the book. The V indicates revised; V.preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and *NA", not available.




MAY 1970

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month

600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)

601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts

Defense Indicators

602, Federal 264. National
expenditures, defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance

621, Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

647. New or- 648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries

(Bil. dol,)

(Bil. dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions

(Mil. dol.)

1968
January . .
February
March

^8.*4

165;?

174 ."i

76a

7,033
7,615
6,208

2,360
2,865
1,985

3-51
3.86
5.07

1.'60
1.31

2,887
3,445
3,124

April
May
June

170.8

isoii

6,765

-9)5

77.*9

7,441

6,929

2,161
2,299
2,077

4.43
4.01
2.96

1,47
2.27
2.06

3,488
4,203
3,067

July
August
September

181.4

184.2

78.8

7,544
7,659
7,989

2,323
2,804
3,234

3.67

-2.8

3.91
3.55

1.91
2.36
1.92

3,937
3,173
3,836

October
November
December

-o!i

187 '.3

167.4

79.*3

7,520
7,286
6,834

2,298
2,520
1,959

4.41
3.89
4.20

2.38
1.95
2.31

3,903
3,378
3,821

January
February
March

+10.1

19si6

188.5

79^6

7,578
7,050
6,543

2,307
2,207
1,542

4.02
4.39
3.81

1.84
2.31
2.15

3,468
3,658
2,777

April
May
June

6,520
+13^5

202^8

189 .*3

78!5

6,319
6,144

1,442
1,304
1,507

4.02
3.81
2.87

2.08
1.79
1.27

2,639
2,673
2,618

6,906
6,472
'6,394

1,462
1,276
1,807

4.05
3.77
3.37

2.38
1.46
1.42

2,962

81X3

2,748

7,041
7,091

1,845
1,974
2,224

4.15
4.63
4.40

1.89
2,42
2.11

2,659
2,826

7,045 ^
6/516
6,519

Ii913
1,543
1,640

3.55
4.28

1.81
1.87

2,617

r3.98

rl.56

3,007

(NA)

(NA)

P3-62

pl-45

2,549

1969

July
August
September

+?!?

201.3

193.' 6

October..
November
December

+6.6

203.3

196 .*7

79.2

P+0.3

P198.7

r!98.4

r78*,9

7,088

3,172

3,314

1970
January
February
March
April
May
June

2,908

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

ItCIt

MAY 1970




85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q PRICE MOVEMENTS

Wholesale price indexes

Consumer price indexes
Year
and
month

781. All items® 782. Food

783. Commodities less foods

784. Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufac-

(1957-59»10Q)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)
l

<)

1968

ities ©

(1957-59-100)

tured goods ®

751. Processed
foods and
feeds

752. Farm products

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59-100)

C1)

l

1

( )

C)

January
February
March

118. 6
119.0
119.5

r 117.1
rll?.6
118.2

rm.4
111.7
r 112.0

130.8
131.3
132.1

107.2
108.0
108.2

108.1
108.7
108.9

^112.2
rl!3.3
113.6

99.3
rlOl.l
rl01.9

April
May
June

119.9
120.3
120.9

118.7
119.3
rl!8.9

112.2
112.5
113-0

132.5
133.0
133.9

108.3
108.5
108.7

109.1
109.1
109.4

rll3.9
rl!4.2
rll3.6

rl02.3
rlQB.3
rlOO.9

July , ,
August
September

121.5
121.9
122.2

119.2
119.5
120.0

113.3
113.7
UA. 0

134.9
135.5
136.0

109.1
108.7
109.1

109.7
109.5
109.9

rl!4.5
rl!4.4
rlU.7

rlQg.2
rl01.6
r!03.3

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March

122.9
123.4
123.7

r!20.9
121.0
121.6

114.4
114.8
115.0

136.6
137.4
138.1

109.1
109.6
109.8

110.0
110.3

n4.5

no. 5

rU5.4
rl!5.2

102.7
104.7
r!04. 1

124.1
124.6
125.6

r!22.1
r!22.1
122.8

rl!5.4
115-9
rll6. 9

139.0
139.7

110.7
1 11
1.

111.3
111.7
112.2

rl!5.9
rll6.3
117.1

r!05.1
rlC4.8

April
May
June

126.4
126.8
127.6

123.6
124.2
r!25.2

117-2
117.5
118.0

142.0
142.7
H3.3

112.8
n3.2

132.4
112.8
113.2

nia.5

r!06.0

rn9.9
r!20.3

rioa.9
r!09.4

July
August
September

128.2
128.7
129.3

125.8
126.4
127.1

118.2
118.4
118.8

144.0
145.0
246.0

113.3
113.4
113.6

113.5
113.6
113.9

r!20.6
rl21.0
r!20.6

108.5
rl09.2
rl09.1

October
November
December
1970
January
February
March

129.8
130.5
131.3

r!27.2
128.7
130.3

H9.4
rll9.6
120.1

146.5
147.2
148.3

114. 0
114.7
115.1

114.6
114.9
115.3

121.7
r!22.5
123.1

109.5
1.12.8
112.6

131.8
X32.5
133.2

130.8
131.8
132.0

120.5
120.6
120.9

149.6
150.7
152.3

n6.o
n6.4
116.6

116.1
n6.4
n6.6

125.0
125.2
125.7

112.7
1-13.5
114.0

134.0

132.4

121.6

153.4

116.6

116.9

126.2

111.7

April
May .
June

.

no. 9

in. 7
in. 9

106. a

,.

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not '(jflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
l
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

86




MAY 1970

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP

Year
and
quarter

206, Potential level x

205. Actual value

First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter. .....
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter. .....
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

(Ann, rate, bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)

1967
First Quarter. .....
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1968

207, Gap (potential less actual)

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars

666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5

663.1
669.6
676.2
682.9

-3.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6

693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5

689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2

-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3

723.1
726.7
730.6
729.8

717.2
724.3
731.4
738.6

-5.9
-2.4
+0.8
•t-8.8

r724.3

746.4

r+22.1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e"t estimated; "a", anticipated; .and "NA", not available.
1
Based on a trend line of 3-5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter
1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent
from 4th quarter 1969 to 1st quarter 1 7 .
90

IECII

MAY 1970




87

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

|
2 ANALYTICAL RATIOS

850, Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing

851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade

852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods

(Percent)

Year
and
month

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

1968
January
February
March

853. Ratio, 854. Ratio, 855. Ratio,
production of personal sav- nonagriculbusiness
ingto dispos- tural job openequipment to able personal ings unfilled
consumer
to persons
income
unemployed
goods

(1957-5^100)

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.

859. Real
spendable
avg. wkly,
earnings,
nonagrL
prod, or
nonsupv,
workers

857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing®

(1957-59=100 (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)

(Percent)

pBl\9

1.55
1.54
1.54

3.37
3.36
3.39

120.5
119.5
118.4

0.069

0.127
0.122
0.129

132.6

2.47
2.46
2.48

78.17
78.71
78.57

s'.s

April
May
June

pBk.B

1.55
1.54
1.52

3.41
3.36
3.28

117.9
117.6
117.0

0.072

0.138
0.140
0.132

134 *.l

2.47
2.48
2.48

78.29
78.55
7S.63

5\7

July
August.
September

p84,'6

1.51
1.54
1.53

3.17
3.33
3.24

116.6
115.7
117.5

0.056

0.130
0.133
0.136

134 '.4

2.48
2.49
2.49

78.39
78.52
78.94

5\l

October
November
December

p84!a

1.53
1.53
1.56

3.19
3.22
3.38

118.1
119.5
118.2

0.063

0.136
0.138
•0.1/j2

135^8

2.49
2.50
2.51

78.64
78.31
78.66

4.'9

P8JU5

1.54
1.53
1.54

3.22
3.18
3.21

118.9
118.7
118.5

0.053

0.139
0.140
0.134

135^6

2.51
2.50
2.49

78.52
78.05
78.31

§!6

April
May
June

pB4*.5

1.54
1.54
1.53

3.24
3.26
3.17

120.0
121.8
122.0

0.053

0.133
0.13ft
0.139

134! 5

2.48
2.48
2.48

78.20
78.25
78.27

s'.i

July
August
September

p84.2

1.54
1.54
1.54

3.20
3.15
3.07

119.8
120.0
123.1

0.067

0.125
0.122
0.111

134^4

2.50
2.51
2.51

78.03
78.34
78.53

5!6

pS1.7

1.54
1.56
1.59

3.03
3.09
3.16

124.6
121.1
120.6

0.064

0.111
0.119
O.U2

134 ,*9

2.50
2.50
2.50

78.18
78.10
77.77

4.*7

P79*.4

1.58
1.57
pi. 59

3.13
3.06
P3.09

rl!9.4
rl21.5
r!20.3

rO.066

0.099
0.089
pO.080

P134.5

2.49
T2.4&
2.48

77.35
77.32
r77.45

(NA)

(MA)

(NA)

pU8.8

P2.47

P77.37

1969
January
February
March....

October
November
December
1970
January
February
March. .

.
....

April
May
June
July.
August
September

(NA)

....

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.




MAY 1970

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators

Year
and
month

Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)

1-month span

9-month span

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)

1-month span

9-month span

Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB(17 industries)

1-quarter span

3-quarter span

1968
January
February
March

14.3
88.1
21.4

64.3
69.0
69.0

51.4
55.7
50.0

57.1
71.4
68.6

47

53

April
May
June

14.3
88.1
66.7

35.7
76.2
88.1

40.0
54.3
51.4

68.6
68.6
80.0

65

59

July
August
September

33.3
38.1
83.3

35.7
50.0
69.0

51-4
44.3
78.6

71.4
88.6
82.9

71

62

October
November
December

47.6
16.7
52.4

21.4
42.9
50.0

60.0
44.3
55.7

88.6
77.1
85.7

47

76

1969
January
February
March

52.4
28.6
90.5

40.5
19.0
23.8

57.1
62.9
40.0

82.9
68.6
60.9

53

65

April
May
June

47.6
42.9
47.6

38.1
38.1
23.8

54.3
45.7
40.0

51.4
82.9
68.6

59

59

July
August
September

28.6
45.2
57.1

73.8
28.6
9.5

60.0
41.4
81.4

54.3
51.4
38.6

r59

r47

October
November
December

19.0
69.0
78.6

9.5
r!9.0
p21.4

37.1
31.4
48.6

45.7
r40.0
P40.0

35

P29

1970
January
February
March

33.3
r28.6
r6l.9

34.3
65.7
r41.4

P33.3

P52.9

April
May
June

P44

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are
placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

ItCII MAY 1970




89

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.

Year
and
montih

D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
manufacturing,
(13 industrial materials)
stocks (75 industries)©1
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)

1-quarter span
1968
January
February
March..,

1-month span

9-month span

1-month span

9-month span

D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)

1-month span

9-month span

55

64.5
10.5
21.1

61.8
63.2
71.1

46.2
46.2
53.8

30.8
46.2
46.2

25.5
80.9
25.5

57.4
51.1
61.7

April
May
June

47

94.7
83.6
80.3

76.3
82.7
85.3

46.2
53-8
50.0

53.8
61.5
73.1

63-8
51.1
53.2

38.3
51.1
74.5

July
August
September

57

48.7
17.8
86.7

93.3
97.3
81.3

46.2
65,4
57.7

76.9
57.7
76.9

57.4
40.4
63.8

36.2
66.0
76.6

56

82.7
77.3
72.7

71.3
52.0
56.0

69.2
69.2
38.5

92.3
92.3
84.6

66.0
31.9
61.7

63. S
78.7
59.6

53

22.0
43.3
13.3

73.3
40.0
14.7

53.8
61.5
46.2

84.6
80.8
76.9

72.3
38.3
55.3

70.2
46.8
40.4

April ..... .... .
May
June
„

53

54.0
74.7
1.3

12.0
6.7
21.3

65.4
57.7
76.9

69.2
76.9
92.3

48.9
57.4
23.4

58.5
34.0
25.5

July
August
September

50

4.0
34.7
61.3

25.3
21.3
20.0

61.5
76.9
57.7

76.9
76.9
69.2

51.1
59.6
38.3

28.7
24.5
8.5

50

72.7
68.0
4.0

14.7
25.3
31.5

46.2
50.0
50.0

69.2
69.2
76.9

45.7
31.9
57.4

12. a

65.4

31.9
25.5
44.7

.. .

October
November ....
December
1969
January
February
March

,.

October
November
December
,
1970
January
February
March

43.3
23.3
82.7

50.0
30.8
57,7

16.4

April
May
June

52

3 61.5

53.8

8

6.4

12.8

25.5

July
August
September
October
November
December

.

NOTE; Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes
shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
1
3

90

Based on 76 components through August 1968, on 75 components through March 1970 and on 73 components thereafter.
Avarage for May 5, 12, and 19.




MAY 1970

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

[ j DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
|

Year
and
month

D41. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)

1-month span

D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)*®

1-month span

6-month span

D54, Sates of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

1-month span

9-month span

1968

January
February
March

68.3
75-0
65.0

96.7
86.7
86.7

41.7
70.8
72.9

75.0
83.3
70.8

90.9
84.1
68.2

90.9
95-5
90.9

73.9
65.2
82.6

82.6
91.3
91.3

April
May
June

66.7
66.7
85.0

86.7
85.0
76.7

43.8
64.6
72.9

87.5
70.8
79.2

72.7
63.6
61,4

75.0
84.1
81.8

26.1
60.9
65.2

87.0
91.3
87.0

July
August
September

63.3
81.7
58.3

78.3
81.7
75.0

58.3
58.3
68.8

75.0
75.0
70.8

68.2
70.5
72.7

84.1
81.8
86.4

63.0
58.7
30.4

47. 3

October
November
December

71.7
80.0
73.3

81.7
80.0
80.0

58.3
70.8
56.2

66.7
70.8
79.2

79.5
79.5
61.4

81.8
81.8
90.9

52.2
54.3
26.1

82.6
65.2
65.2

January
February
March

90.0
70.0
70.0

83.3
75.0
76.7

54.2
62,5
91.7

83.3
70.8
77.1

68.2
72.7
75.0

81.8
79.5
84.1

69.6
60.9
21.7

73.9
82.6

April
May
June

41.7
61.7
70.0

66.7
65.0
56.7

45.8
66.7
70.8

75.0
72.9
62.5

84.1
79.5
84.1

90.9
90.9
88.6

73.9
41.3
54.3

67.4
65.2
56.5

July
August
September

36.7
58.3
31.7

55.0
50.0
43.3

45.8
54.2
37-5

45.8
56.2
41.7

77.3
68.2
77.3

86.4
86.4
81.8

45.7
50.0
30.4

50.0
52.2

October....
November
December

50.0
55.0
56.7

45.0
r48.3
r45.0

43.8
62.5
45.8

r33V3
rU-7
41.7

68.2
84.1
72.7

81.8
81.8
72.7

63.0
34.8
.60.9

January
February
March

53,3
r45.0
r40.0

P33.3

r37.5
r56.2
r50.0

P41.7

86.4
77.3
72.7

77.3

60.9
r58.7
P34.8

April

P28.3

78.3
78.3

1969

...

71-7

•56,5
73-9

P&5.2
(NA)

1970

May

P33.3

68.2

(NA)

June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used
except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p"( preliminary; and u NA", not
available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.

B€l»

MAY 1970



91

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data arid Direction of Change
1969

1970

Diffusion index components
September

October

November

January

December

February

April p

March

01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)

+

All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
'
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

o
+
o
+
+
+
-r
+
o

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied pioducts
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

+
-r
o
+
4-

40.8 - 40.5
(19)
(57)

o 40.5
(69)

+ 40.7
(79)

-

40.3
(33)

42.7
40.5
41.8
41.0
39.0

o
-

40.1
40.0
39.9
41.7
42.2
41.4
42.4
40.2
41.3
40.7
38.8

+
+
o
+
o
+
+

40.4
40.3
39.9
42.0
41.6
41.4
42.2
40.1
40.6
40.9
38.9

4+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
o
+

42.6
40.3
41.5
40.9
39.2

+ 40.6
- 39.4
- 39.5
- 41.6
- 41.2
- 41.4
42.3
+ 40.4
- 40.0
- 40.7
o 39.2

41.0
37.4
40.8
35.8
42.8
38.3
41.6
42.0
41.0
37.1

o
+
44-

40.5
37.2
40.6
35.7
42.7
38.3
41.7
42.6
40.9
37.3

+
+
+
+
o
+
+
4+

40.8
37.4
40.8
35.8
42.7
38.4
41.9
42,7
40.8
37.4

o
+
+
+
+
+
+

40.8
36.3
40.9
36.0
42.8
38.6
41.8
42.2
41.1
37.7

o
+
+
+
+
-

40.4
40.1
40.1
42.1
42.2
41.5

40.5
40.4
40.0
42.1
41.6
41.6

40.8
38.3
40.2
35.7
43.0
38.2
42.0
42.4
'40.9
37.6

- 39.9
(29)

+

444+
-

41.0
r40.3
39.1
r41.8
40.9
41.1
41.8
39.7
r40.2
r40.2
r38.7

o
-

r41.0

+
+

41^9
40.7
41.3

o
+
4+
+

r41.8
r40.2

+
+
-

r40.7
r37.4
r40.0
35.5
r42.3
38.0
41.8
42.7
41.0
r37.0

40.2

-

o
+
o
o
o
+
+

39.8

40.4
40.7

r38.9

40.7

r37.3
40,2

r35.5
42.3
38.0
41.9

r42.4
r40.7
37.2

40.0
(33)

(62)

o
-

40.9
39.5
39.3
41.7
40.2
41.1

- 41.4
+ 40.3

-

40. a

+

40.8

4
+
™
o
+

40.6
37.2
40.7
35.7
42.1
37.9
41.4
41.9
40.7
38.1

+ 39. a

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals;.

+ 32,135
(81)
4-

-31,188

5,300
- 2,571

(3D

-30,295
(49)

-28,909
(34)

+ 29,657
(66)

4,751
- 2,190

4,760
- 2,007

4,787
+ 2,079

4,419
- 1,855

44-

4-

3,340

(41)

+

+ 28,911
(53)

r4,500
4,976
1,951 + (NA)
0

3,384

+

3,116

3,024
...

...

4.

4-

3,276

3,437

-r20,632

...

+

Fabricated metal products
Metal cans barrels, arid drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops,
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*

5,313
2,592

-31,795
(37)

+

(MA)

3,159
0

...

4-

6,152

5,453
-} 389

+} 619

5,390
-} 540

-} 520

5,121
-} 358

(NA)
+} (NA)

696
287

+
+

692
341

-

677
264

+
4-

751
310

+ 770
- 272

720
239

- (NA)

526

-

510

576

-

527

+

512

- (NA)

+}

869

5,635
1 620
}

4+

736
338

-

-

4-

4-

...

544

+

572

44-

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p ~ preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24,
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.

92




MAY 1970

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969

1970

Diffusion index components
October

September

December

November

February

January

April

March

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Millions of dollars)

Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
Motor vehicles and parts, total
Complete aircraftt
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment

3,683

:}
•++
-l-

}
740 ; 724 t)
+
...
842 +
1,310 +

Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods total

68S

i ii
,i

4,110

:> «*
+
...
+

+
+

3,667

l} 717

1,402 -

3,786

7,885

8,429

7,673

+

1,068 +

+

+

6,414

6,995

+

*..

+

... -

+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+

-j-

+
+

+
+

+

...

7,230
...

r6,671

p6,515
+

+
+

+
... +

...

+

+

... +

+

+
+

(NA)

;} 752 l) (NA)
+
...
+
1,182
(HA)
971 +
... ~
... +
+

+

• •
* •

3,633

:> TO

+

+
+
+
+
+

Instruments total
Lumber total

3,619

4,097

+
... +

+
+

90.31 (43)

87.16 +

... +
...

+
+
+
+
+
+

.-...

+

D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 - 10)
Index of 500 stock prices

+

94.51 +
(61)

Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating.

95.52 +

91.11 (4)

+

... +

+

+
+
+
... +
+
... +

+

... +

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+
4+

... +
+
... +
+
+

+

...
. ,, .
...

_

...

88.65

..

+
+
+
+
+

...

... +

4-

...

+

+
+

+
+

4-

...

+

+
... +
+
+

...

...

+

-

...

+

-

...
...

+
+

... +
...

+
+
+
+

+

...

...

...

+
+

...

-

...

+

+
+

85.95
(16)

+
+

+
+

+
H-

...

-

(83)

(23)

+

Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
.
Automobiles
.
Radio and television broadcasters

Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance

96.21 (68)

(73)

...

.! . +
+

+
...

+

-t+
+
+
+

...

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (-f) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
^•Data are
Data are
representing
3
Based on
2

seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
75 components through March 1 7 , and on 73 components thereafter.
90

ItCII MAY 1970




93

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969

1970

Diffusion index components

October

September

D23.

Industrial materials price
index (1957=59-100)

+

117.4 -

November

December

January

March

February

April

May

1

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2

115.6 o

115.6 4-

+

117.2

119.4 +

120.0 -

118.? -

119.2

118.4

(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (lb.) n
Lead scrap (Ib,)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.).,...
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.) . . .
Cotton (Ib,), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool topsflb.)..
Hides (IbA
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib,)
.
Tallow (Ib,)

(53)
.601
.076
+ 34.073
- 1,654
+
.160
+
.152
o
+
+

(46)

+

+
o
+
.257 +
.220 o
1.583 .202

+

12.823

+

+

.285
.079

.602
.073
33.29B
1.665
.160
.162
.261
.220
1.546
.192
12.978
.266
.073

(50)

(50)

+
+
+
- 30.090 +
+
1.740 +
o
o
.160
+
.169
.589
.074

.255
.219

+
1.566 -

+
+
-

12.939

+

.241
.074

.613
.078

+

+

.160
.163

-

.251
.222

o

1.535
12.887
.245
.068

+

(58)

(3D

(50)

35.050 +
1.778 +

.181

.196

\

.598 +
.079
38.318 +

.609 +
.077
45.023

-

1.794 .159 o
.156

1.725 t.159 o
.151 +

.247 +
.222 o
1.520 .183

.251 +
.222 +
1.519 +
.179

-

12.849

+
+

-

.263
.070

12.738

.254
.066

-

+

.642
.073
44.336
1.788
.159
.153
.252
.223
1.533
.176
12.666
.223
.072

(62)

(54)

+
.650 +
.673
.074
+
.074 o
- 40.816 + 43.993
1.848
4=
1.B52 .160
+
.160 o
.14.8 +
.157
o
.252
.251
o
.223 +
.225
1.442
1.488 .168
+
.182
+ 12.704 + 12.767
.215
.213
.082
+
.079 •f-

D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)

200

Avg, weekly initial claims ...

Northeast region;
Boston (7)
Buffalo (21) .
Newark (11).
New York (1) . . . ,
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)...
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (26)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (20)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (25)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19)
Milwaukee (18)...
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)

2 1 +
1

202

(3d)

Percent rising of 47 components

(32)

(46)

(26)

(32)

+

+
+
+

+

...
...

+
+
+

_

...

+
+
+

+

+
+
+

...

-f
+

+

...

+

-

+
+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+
4-

South region;
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)..
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)

-

...

+

+
.

! ':.

+

...

+

...

...

+
+

+

+

...

.

+

+

P326
(26)

r263
(45)

250

232

210
(57)

...

-

+

+

+

+
+

+

+
„.

-

+
+

...

+

...

...

+

+

+
...

+
+

+

...

—
-

«.
-

...

+
+

...
...

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) ~ falling, Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p ^ preliminary, r = revised.
1

Average for May 5, 12, and 19.
Series componentB are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
-lf£h© signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) ™ rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of chanR© aro
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its sine rank.
a

94




MAY 1970

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969

1970

Diffusion index components
September

November

October

January

December

Februaryr

March

April?

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricufturat payrolls
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing .,
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servi-ce and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

- 70,390 + 70,651 o 70,635 1- 70,679 + 70,818 + 71,004 + r71,060 - 70,972
(50)
(32)
(28)
(40)
(57)
(55)
(45)
(53)
173
516
408
+
529
+ 11 6
, 0
1,327
+ 1,380
1,383
- 1,447
289
343

163
509
o
408
+
531
+ 11 9
, 0
11 7
,1
+ 1,387
+ 1,389
1,423
288
+
345

156
167
163
532
510 +
511 +
402 +
403
404
526
530 +
531 - 11 4 - 1,097 - 1,081
, 0
- 11 6 + 11 9 - 11 3
,1
,1
,1
- 1,372 + 1,381 - 1,376
- 1,278 - 1,269 - 1,263
- 1,385 - 1,375 - 1,354
286 o
286 . 283
340 +
350
353

+

- 12 4
, 1
63
+
863
+ 1,241
+
561
o
685
o
614
18
1
446
+
290

, 8
- 11 9 - 11 5
, 9
65
67
860
862
- 1,239 - 1,238
o
557 o
557
683
+
678 +
614
613
118
17 +
1
450
451
289
287 +

+ 12 7
, 1
o
65
+
862
o 1,238
+
558
+
685
+
614
+
119
449.
o
289

o
631
+ 3,420
4,480
+ 3,787
o 10,929
+ 3,586
+ 1,5
11 0
- 2,749
- 9,461

+
632 +
635
f 3,461 - 3,459
+ 4,484 + 4,489
+ 3,815 + 3,837
+ 11,021 - 10,936
+ 3,613
+ 3,623
-f 11,264 + H,297
- 2,721 o 2,720
+ 9,620 + 9,676

o
631
- 3,418
o
4,480
+ 3,807
+ 11,002
+ 3,595
+ 11,244
- 2,729
+
9,589

+ 1,226
+
67
+
867
+ 1,247
+
562
+
686
613
+
119
+
449
289
634
3,334
+ 4,521
+ 3,865
+ 11,074
+ 3,650
+ 11,349
- 2,714
+ 9,712

r!51
r499
r398
r522
rl,058
rl,100
rl,372
rl,344
rl,321
r284
r342
+ 1,243 - r 1,234
66 +
67
856 r849
- 1,231 - 1-1,225
o
562
r56l
683
685
612
r609
120
o
119 +
444 +
r445
285
r284
o
634 r633
+ 3,418 + r3,443
- 4,511 o r4,5H
+ 3,876 + r3,882
+ H1 5 -r 1 , 065
,1
1
+ 3,654 + r3,665
1
+ H,415 + r 1 , 422
+
+ 2,721 r2,780
+ 9,774 + r9,794
155
504
399 +
530
- 1,068 - 11 4 , 0
+ 1,377 + 1,336 +
- 1,262 +
+
284 o
345

141
496
396
518
- 1,041
- 1,087
- 1,364
- 1,329
- 1,290
o
284
338

- 1,219
o
67
+
850
- 1,224
559
681
602
18
1
439
+
289
628
- 3,378
- 4,477
o 3,882
+ 1,0
11 1
+ 3,682
+ 11,439
+ 2,856
+ 9,808

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components 2

Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals . ,
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous.
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous

- 173.9
(38)

- 173.1 - 171.4
(62)
(44)

- 1 11 - r!70.4
7 .
(46)
(38)

+ r!70.5

- r!39.'5
- r!78.9

+ r-1430
- rl78.2

143
175

195 !9 - rl95^6
196^5 178.3+ r!81.5 + r!95.8

192
196

J-V4 . o

+ 196!4
+ r 198.0
+ 156.0
- rl$3.6

- rl54! 5
+ rllS.O

+ 1-155! 6
- 114.6

- r!37.7
- 151.4
(NA)

183 !4 - rl79.'i
168.2+ rl68.4

+ rlSO.'i
- rl67.8

- 147 !?
- 178.4

+ 199.8
- 202.9
- 178.8
+ lfc.4

+ 200.3
- 197.3

-

194^9
,177.5

+
+

: m

+

19&!o

- 185 3 - 184.!6
- 165.3 o 165.3

+

- r!43.'l
+ rlSO.O

r

+ i9^;2 " $H : SgB
—

155 !9 + 157!4
1 41 - 109.7
1 .

- 183 .*7 + 166.4 +

- p!70.4

(33)

150.*3
- 179.2

157 .'7 - 156!i
1 11 + 113.8
1.

+ riyi.i
(50)

149 .'3 + 150 \k
- 179.1 + 179.4

+
-

(56)

183 '.3 +
167.2+

; ®
+
+

140
155
(NA)

i&o
167

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
2

BCII MAY 1970




Directions

95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969

1970

Diffusion index components
September

October

November

January

February

- 150.3
- 147.9
93.0

+ r!52.9
- r!45.8
-

r96.9

- r 152 i8
- pl41.4
o P96.9

- 137.5
- pl50.2
(NA)
(NA)

t
-

-

173.8
157.9

f r!74.9
- r!57.3

- pl?2.6
- r!56.9

pl63
(NA)
p!56

- r240.2
- r!43.3
- x-231.4

+ r243.1
+ r!43.9
+ P234.2

+ r225.$
+ p244.4
+ p!49.1
(NA)

p225
(KA)
(NA)
(NA)

+ r!45*.2
+ p!22.8

+ r!44.3
4- p046.0
(NA)

p!44
(NA)
(NA)

113.1 + 122.3
- r!31.4 + 132.0

- 121.5
+ 134.3

+ rl58!4
+ r!49.8

+ pl65.'j
+ plSO.l

December

March

April

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products

- I5i!6 + 152.1 - 151^9
- 146.1 + 146.5 + 148.0
- 97.7 + 101.1 + 102.7

Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

o 177.5
- 157.3

- 177.1 - 156.9 +

Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals ^nd products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products

+ 240.2
+ 146.2
o 240.0

- 238.3
+ 146.7
- 238.6

Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products

- 142.2
+ 118.6

- 13816
- 113.8

Minerals:
Coal .
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

- 114.7 + H5.7
+ 133.1 - 130.7
D58.

All manufacturing industries

333 li +

+

144.3

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
„
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products , refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

i4i!i
139.6

+ 240.8
+ 150.9

+ 240.2

4- 141! o
+

116.2

+
+

118.9
131-2

+ 153 '.3
+ 146.8

178.0
158.6

+ 241.7
- 149.5
- 234.8
4-

142*1 +
115.1 4-

+

H9.3

+ 132.6

144*.7
H7.8

- 152! 3 4- rl5?!7
+ 154.3 - r!42.6

P339

TNA
(NA)
(NA)

+

p!23
P134
P153
(NA)
(NA)

+

116.9

INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)

+

113.9
(77)

Durable goods:
Lumber and wootl products
Furnituro and other household durables
NonrnetaDic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metal s
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products

-

175^9
159.1

+

+

114.6

+

(68)

11A.9

116.1 +

116.4

(73)

(68)

120.2
107.9
116.9
117.0

- 119-5 +
+ 108.1 +
+ 117.3 4

H7.7

-

120.1
100.3
117.8
117.3

+ 153.4
+ 116.0
+ 127.1
4- 127.1

4
+
+
+

157.1
116.4
127.5
127.6

121.7 + 122.3
106.9 4- 107.2
109.1 + 109.4
H7.5 + 117-8

+
+
o

022.8
107.3
109.3
117.8

- 124.9 o
- 105.8 o
+ 104.4
90.4
+ 117.9 ©
+
112.1 +
4- 100.0 +
- 100. a 4
- 104.4

324.9
105.3
104.0
39.9
117.9
112.5
100.4
101.3
104.2

4=

193.^

4- 146.4
+ 113.6
o 124.4
+ 123-7

+ 152.8
+ 114.0
+ 124.9

o 152.8
+ 114.6
+ 125.2
+ 126.5

119-2 + 120.0
105.4 + 105.6
106.1 + 108.7
116.4 + H6.7

4- 120.4
+ 106.0
+ 109.0
+ 117.0

+
+
o
o

121.0
106.2
109.0
H7.0

4+
+
+

121.3 + 121.6
105.9 - 105.8
105.0 - 104.5
92.1 91.6
116.2 + 116.5
108.8 + 109.0
98.6
98.9
101.8 - 101.6
102.7 + 103.5

+
+
+
+

121.8
106.0
104.6
91-5
116.7

+
+
4-

122.6
106.1
104.3
91.1
116.9

4o
o
4+

+
4o
+

109.3
98.9
101.6
104.4
loA #

+

+
+
+
+

i+
+

1O& O

107 /,

109.5
98.8
+ 102.2
+ 104.5
noA *;

4-

126.1

121.5 +
106.8 +
109.1 o
117.4 +

125.1 + 125.2
106.1 o
106.1
104.3 o 104.3
91-0
91.5
117.2 + U7.5
n
41 11 + i . 8
1.
+
99.1 + 99.5
- 101.0 + 101.2
4- 104.7 - 104.6
-4-

10 A A

+ 116.6

(77)

(86)

+
44-

123-2
106.4
113-5
113.2

+ 143-5
+ 112.8
+ ^24.2
+ 122.6

4=

+

(73)

- 121.6
+ 107.5
4 116.5
+ 114.6

+ 123.9
+ 106.9
+ 113.9
o U3.7

+
+
-

H5.3

- 122.5
+ 107.2
4- 114.5
+ 113.9
4- 150.1
+ 113.7
+ 124.5
4- 124.8

- 122.6
4- 106.5
+ 113.8
+ 113.7
+ 144.8
+ 113.4
+ 124.4
+ 323.4

+
+
+

+

(84)

-4-

19A

7

+

19A

ft

4»

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbe:s: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) * falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA - not available, p = preliminary, r ™ revised.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
s
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

96




MAY 1970

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969

1970

Diffusion index components
September

October

November

December

Februaryr

January

Marchp

April

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
-

(30)

Percsnf rising of 23 components • • • > . . * • • >

Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores

(63)

29,471 -

29,419 +

29,570 +

(61)

(35)

+
+

+
+
+

6,012 +
2,233 3,083 +
294 +

553
401 +
652
314

550 +
406
627
305 +

553 +
396
603 -i335

574
391 +
608 +
273 +

347
417 +
925
265 +

825 +
436
906 +
26?

838
423
909
259

855 +
439 +
916
264

885 +
465
897 +
246 +

-to
+

5,238 400
2,090 1,007 618

5,272
393
2,089
1,019
617

+
+
+
+

5,170 395
2,078 +
1,004 61A

5,086
367
2,097
1,000
5<J/L

+
+
+

+
+
+ .
+

6,239
2,209
3,108
330

4,701
413
2,184
1,038
6A.9

29,980 -

+
+
+

+
+
o
-

29,734

(NA)

(35)

(NA)

6,269
2,254
3,044
323

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

560
420
650
296

557
332
591
273

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

892
426 +
949
256

865
431
926
241

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

4,911
434
2,169
1,036
6LL

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
fNA}

(59)

6,035 2,219 +
3,065 +
302

5,907
2,173
2,938
281

6,026
2,137
3,113
310

(61)

+
1+
+

526 +
338 +
645 i316

+
-

Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores

29,259 + 29,620 -

6,221 +
2,270 3,129 338

4,901
424
2,183
1,034
633

+
+
+
+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA ~ not available, p - preliminary, r - revised.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.

2

MAY 1970




97

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

B
Year
and
month

133. Canada,
781. United
States, index of
index of consumer
consumer prices© prices©

| CONSUMER PRICES

132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
prices®
consumer prices ® prices®

138. Japan, index
of consumer
prices®

137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices ®

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59-100)

1968
January
February
March
,.

119
119
120

123
123
123

132
133
133

125
125
125

147
147
147

161
161
162

140
HO
140

April
May
June

120
120
121

124
124
124

136
136
136

125
125
126

147
148
148

162
163
161

141
141
141

July
August . . , .
September. . ., , .

122
122
122

125
125
126

136
137
137

126
125
125

149
149
150

162
162
168

uo

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March

123
123
124

126
127
127

137
138
140

126
126
127

152
152
153

166
167
166

141
HI
041

024
125
3J26

127
127
128

140
141
142

128
128
129

155
155
156

167
167
169

142
042
143

April
May
June

126
127
128

129
130
131

143
143
144

129
129
129

156
157
158

171
171
171

143
143
144

128
129
129

131
132
131

142
143
144

129
129
130

158
159
160

175
175
177

145
145
145

October
November
December
1970
January
,
February
March

130
130
131

132
132
133

145
145
146

130
130
132

161
161
162

176
176
176

146
047
047

132
132
133

133
134
134

147
148
(NA)

r!32
133
133

163
164
(NA)

r!79

148
(MA)

April
May . . .

134

135

July ..
August
September

... .

(1957-59=100)

(NA)

140
141

iai
182

(NA)

JUfl8

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the bnck of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.

98




MAY 1970

ItCII

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Year
and
month

47. United
States, index of
industrial production

(1957-59=100)

123. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1957-59=100)

122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1957-59-100)

126. France,
index of industrial production

(1957-59=100)

128. Japan, index of industrial
production

121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production

127. Italy, index
of industrial production

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

125. West Germany, index of
industrial production

1968
January
February
March.

162
162
163

172
172
173

135
136
138

164
165
169

159
161
166

348
354
351

162
163
166

217
219
220

April .
May
June

163
165
166

175
176
179

136
138
138

167
16
1
136

165
167
180

362
372
373

166
157
165

221
222
223

July
August
September

166
165
166

178
178
180

138
140
141

171
171
171

167
178
177

382
382
389

168
171
173

223
217
232

October
November
December

166
168
169

182
184
185

141
142
143

179
182
184

176
185
187

397
407
401

175
178
180

•234
227
234

January
February
March

169
170
171

185
187
191

141
142
144

183
181
180

rlS7
189
rl9l

403
410
405

180
180
182

236
232
239

April
May
June

172
172
174

187
186
186

143
143
144

186
188
183

r!90
195
ri98

428
430
435

183
185
186

241
236
242

July
August
September

175
174
174

186
183
185

145
143
r!43

188
188
187

190
197
193

446
443
458

186
187
rl85

243
238
227

October
November
December

173
171
171

185
189
192

r!43
145
145

191
186
190

rl97
207
203

469
466
477

rl87
189
188

214
212
219

170
170
r!71

r!91
p!95
(NA)

r!43
p!46
(NA)

196
p!97
(NA)

208
r208
p212

475
r486
P483

193
P195
(NA)

r247
p248
(NA)

1969

1970
January
February
March

P170

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a" r anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

MAY 1970




99

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

i

Q STOCK PRICE,

U15. West Germany, 148. Japan, index 147. Italy, index
index of stock
of stock prices © of stock prices®
prices ©

19. United States, 143. Canada, index 142. United Kingindex of stock
of stock prices® dom, index of
prices, 500 common
stock prices ®
stocks ®

146. France, index
of stock prices®

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59«1GO)

1968
January
February
March

193
184

189
177
171

202
208
213

107
104
113

205

203

209
207

208
209

134
130
133

April
May
June

194
198
204

183
185

117

187

235
246
252

107

216
219
226

220
229
235

135
133

July
August
September

203
199
205

194
192
198

265
272
279

103
105
105

230
231
224

243
254
276

136
138
136

October
November
December
1969
January
. .
February
March

210
2H
216

203
204
210

270
273
279

104
105
109

228
224
219

275
264
266

131
127
134

207
206
201

214
213
208

291
282
270

13
1
127
137

228
230
231

279
282
279

135
133
136

April
May
June

205
212
201

213
224
209

266
253
235

136
1M
131

233
243
247

293
302
304

152
153
150

July
August
September

192
191
192

199
199
204

227
226
229

128
134
135

238
247
252

300
293
310

146
152
153

October
November
December
1970
January
February
March

194
195
185

206
214

213

225
227
234

1A4
141
147

262
274
266

324
336
350

163
156

183
177
180

216
212
216

246
238
232

155
150
147

255
24B
245

361
383

157
156
157

r!74

210

pU9

p!94

228
p210

rpU5
P137

rp845
p226

rp381
P330

rpl63
pl56

Year
and
month

April .
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

181

„

....

in

136

162

362.

. .
....

NOTE: Series are seasonelly adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" f not available.

100




MAY 1970

ItCII

APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures ot Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered

Monthly series

Ct

1

C

T/C

Average duration of run
(ADR)

I/O
for
MCD
span

MCD

Cl

1

C

MCD

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1 Average workweek of production workers mfg .... Jan. '53-June'69.
Jan. '53-Dec. '68.
Jan. '53-Jan. '69 .
*5. Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
i Jan. '53- June '68 .
*6 New orders durable goods industries
Jan. '59-Sep. '67.
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

0.49
1.85
4.76
3.4-8
7.24

0.44
1.44
4.22
3.08
6.97

0.17
.96
2.02
1.37
1.48

2.60
1.51
2.09
2.24
4.71

3
2
3
3
5

0.87
.82
.72
.68
.92

2.26
2\12
1.75
1.83
1.63

1.49
1.59
1.47
1.53
1.51

10.37
10.05
12.00
9.74
8.67

3.61
3.80
4.13
3.89
2.78

8
9.
*1Q
*12.
13.

Construction contracts total value
Construction contracts, commercial and indus
Contracts and orders plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations

'53-Sep. '67.
'53-Sep. '67,.
'53-June '68:.
'53-Sep. '67 i .
'53-Sep. '67..

6.42
8.47
4.55
.81
2.54

6.13
8.38
4.23
.60
2.24

1.61
1.05
1.37
.55
.95

3.81
7.96
3.09
1.09
2.35

5
6
4
2
3

.79
t1)
.84
.62
.83

1.57
1.52
1.80
2.89
1.85

1.45
1.47
1.53
1.57
1.56

9.26
13.54
10.28
7.33
8.38

3.44
3.00
3.25
4.61
3.16

14.
*17.
*19.
*23.
24.

Jan. '53-Jan, '69 . .
Liabilities of business failures ®
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Jan. '53-Dec. '69..
Stock prices, 500 common .stocks ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Industrial materials prices ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.,
New orders, machinery and equipment industries. . .
Jan. '53-June '68..

21.95
.59
2.46
1.32
4.01

21.41
.49
1.65
1.04
3.66

2.04
.26
1.64
.79
1.45

10.47
1.91
1.01
1.30
2.53

6
3
2
2
3

t1)
.87
.56
.92
.86

1.50
2.51
2.44
2.55
1.93

1.45
1.71
1.60
2.15
1.57

9.14
6.15
9.78
11.73
13.21

2.46
4.10
4.38
3.80
3.16

*29.
*41
42.
46.
*47.

New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricultura! payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-June '69..
Jan. '53-Mar. '70..
Jan. '53-Dec. '69. Jan. '53-Mar. '70 ..

3.90
.31
.35
2~."55
.91

3.34
.14
.27
1.49
.48

1.66
.27
.21
1.97
.69

2.02
.50
1.32
.76
.70

3
1
2
1
1

.66
.50
.66
.76
.70

1.93
5.63
2.31
3.50
3.49'

1.56
1.48
1.53
1.43
1.63

12.57
21.89
20.60
10.15
12.87

3.28
5.63
3.94
3.50
3.49

48.
49.
*52.
53

Man-hours in nonagricultural 'establishments
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Personal income
Wages salaries in mining mfg construction

Jan. '53-June '69. .
Jan. '53-Jan. '69..
Jan. '53-June '69..
Jan. '53-June '69. .
Jan. '53-Dec. '68..

.42
2.93
.56
.82
.92

.29
1.65
.24
.50
.77

.30
2.19
.51
.64
.47

.98
.75
.48
.77
1.65

1
1
1
1
2

.98
.75
.48
.77
.93

2.86
3.43
5.97
,3,23
2.15

1.55
1.73
1.60
1.50
1.57

13.13
11.29
28.14
15.15
14.69

2.86
3.43
5.97
3.23
3.39

.17
1.01
.20
.57
.60

. 1
1
.74
.15
.45
.27

.13
.62
.13
.32
.52

.84
1.19.
1.19
1.41
..51

1
2
2
2
1

.84
.62
.73
.88
.51

4.09
2.51
3.36
2.57
3.30

1.66
1.52
1.81
1.62
1.53

9.26
10.61
11.06
7.00
14.23

4.09
3.96
4.79
3.96
3.30

.83

.13

.82

.14

1

.14

14.54

1.59

27.00

14.54

.93
.50
. .81
1.23

1.43"
.36
.55
.41

2
1
1
1

.75
.36
.55
.41

1.91
6.96
4.38'
5.14

1.50
1.58
1.50
1.62

16.82
26.86
25.75
15.42

2.92
6.96
4.38
5.14

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Jan.
*62 Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods. . . Jan.
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities ©

66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures ............... ..
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories. .
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
81,0.
813.
814
815816.

12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability

817. Sensitive financial flows
820 5 coincident indicators

'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Dec. '68. .
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Dec. '69..
'53-June '68..

Jan. '53-Oct. '68..
Jan.
. Jan.
'Jan,
Jan.

'53-June '68..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Mar, '70..
'53-June '68..

1.69
.54
.93
1.38

1.33
.18
.45
.50

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-May '69- •
'53-May '69. .
'53-Nov,'68..
'53-Nov.'68..
'53-Nov.'68..

.95
.88
.84
.81
.93

.53
.72
.64
.66
,51

.78"
.44
.50
.42
.68

.68
1.66
1.27
1.57
.75

l"
2
2
2
1

.68^
.94
.62
.93
.75

4.67
2.20
2.16
2.26
3.28

1.54"
1.54
1.51
1.71
1.61

12.25
12.25
10.56
10.56
9.50

4.67
3.61
4.30
2.95
3.28

.97
.89
.89

.90
.43
.30

.28
.75
.83

3.14
.57
.36

3
1
1

.90
.57
.36

1.63
4.37
6.96

1.45
1.48
1.52

12.60
17.09
20.89

3.53
4.37
6.96

3.36
1.62
1.42
1.60
1.75

1.81
1.62
1.36
1.49
1.54

11.06
18.71
12.80
9.07
10.08

'4.79
2.93
2.57
2.77
3.43

1.47
1.46
1.43
1.42
1.71

8.50
9.33
9.78
10.28
8.55

2.06
1.96
2.59
2.22
4.65

9.70
1.70
8.08
1.56
11.06
1.63
7.46
1.70
10.53
1.63
1.54 152.00

3.57
4.00
4.48
3.33
3.67
50.67

Jan. '53-Oct. '68. Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. .

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58.
502.,
506.
508.

Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Exports, excluding military aid
Jan. '59-Dec. '69..
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles .... Jan. '63-May '68..
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery.
Jan. '57-May'68..
Jan, '59-Dec. '69..

.20
6.69
10.41
6.62
4.73

.15
6.59
10,28
6.39
4.41

.13
.80
1.13
1.79
1.07

1.19
8.25
9.13
3.57
4.14

2
6
6
4
5

.73
C1)

616
621.
625.
647
750

Defense Department obligations total
Defense Department obligations, procurement. ....
Military contract awards in U.S
New orders defense products industries
Wholesale prices all commodities ©

July
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Sep. '67..
'56-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67. .
'53-June '68..
'53-Sep. '68..

13.58
26.22
20.91
20.01
.29

13.32
26.08
20.82
19.93
.24

1.37
2.00
2.61
1.65
.13

9.74
13.04
7.98
12.04
1.82

6
6
6
6
3

t1)
C1)

.76

1.44
1.43
1.48
1.52
2.41

751.
752.
781.
782.
783.
784.

Wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices, farm products
i
Consumer prices, all items ©
Consumer prices, food'
Consumer prices, commodities less foods
Consumer prices, services ©

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Mar. '69. .
'53-Mar. '69..
'53-Sep. '68. .
'53-Mar. '69..
'56-Mar. '69..
'56-Sep. '68..

.60
1.16
.20
.38
.18
.26

.48
1.02
. 1
1
.27
. 1
1
.07

.31
.46
.16
.23
.14
.26

1.56
2.21
.69
1.17
.76
.27

2
3
1
2
1
1

.97
.90
.69
.70
.76
.27

2.62
1.98
4.48
2.62
3.67
50.67

1

C)

.90
.80

1
C1)
C)

See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of'part 1,




101

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

1

C

I/C

I/C
for
MCD
span

MCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl

1

C

MCD

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES

851.
852.
853.
855.
856.
859.

Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods .
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods.
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed
Real aug. hourly earnings, production workers, mfg.
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagrl production or nonsupv. workers

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan,

'53-Dec. '68.. 0.94
'53- Apr. '68.. 1.87
'53-Mar. '70 . .
.96
'53-Mar. '70 . . 5.37
.38
'53-May'69..

4.32

1.96

.34

.30

.12

2.59

3

.80

1.73

1.56

8.00

3.26

.89

Jan. '64- May '69..

.35

3.92
.IB~

2
3
2
1
3

.83
.98
.67

.56
.37
.55
.63
.62

1.49
2.63
1.21
2.53
1.71

2
3
2
3
2

.02
.94
.56
.68
.87

3.98
2.38
4.29
2.06
3.45

1.54
1.45
1.41
1.43
1.48

16.27
a. SO
10.35
3,9.89
16.00

7.74
4.14
6.48
4,32
9.21

.72

1.78

.98
.95
.73
.93
.75

2.79
3.59
6.29
9.26
8.00

1.66
1.39
1.68

29.33
13.94
14.67
a.oa 11.00
1.98'. 11.73

4.07
3.39
8.70
13.50
11.60

0.44

0.82
1.62

.65
3.27

.88
.60

1.86
1.84
1.08

.83

.74
.59
.83
.74

2.51
2.13
2.54
3.22
3.06

1.59
1.63
1.57
1.53
1,54

11.24
12.20

0.95

8.96
7.92

10.89

4.31
4.46
3.22
6.47

F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

121.
122.
123.
125
126.

OECD European countries, industrial production . . Jan. '53-Dec. '67 ..
United Kingdom, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ..
Canada, industrial production
West Germany industrial production
Jan. '53-Dec. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
France, industrial production

127.
128.
132.
133.
135.

Italy, industrial production . vv
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom, consumer prices®
Canada, consumer prices©
West Germany, consumer prices©

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.

136
137.
138.
142,
143.

Franco consumer prices©
Italy, consumer prices©
Japan, consumer prices®
United Kingdom, stock prices©
Canada, stock prices®

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Sep. '67 . .
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67 . .
'53-Sep. '67..

145.
146,
147.
148.

West Germany, stock prices©
France, stock prices ®
Italy, stock prices®
Japan, stock prices©

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.

'67..
'67..
'67..
'67..
'67..

'67..
'67..
'67..
'67..

1.04

.81
1.72
1.19

1.59
1.07

1.43
1.69

1.28
1.17

.45
.25
.32

.49
.31
.36

.27
.19
.22

1.82
1.66
1.65

2
1
3
2
3

.52
.33
.81

.44
.35
.74

.39
.31
.38

1.14
1.14
1.95
1.48
1.33

2
2
3
2
2

7.04
.59
.61 19.56
.69
3.09
.90
2.63
3.26
.87

1.54
1.80
1.64
1.71
1.70

1
3
3
2

.86
.66
.72
.64

1.85
1.68
1.85
1.68

1.23

3.13
2.77

2.49
2.13

3.34
4.00
3.78
3.60

2.03
3.35
3.00
2.44

*Serieo included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators,
when KGD is'''6."

1.68
1.61
2.37
1.87
1.89
2.29

.95

.86
1.79
1.59
1.07

3.52
2.48
2.44
3.26

© Measures are based on unadjusted data,

8,80
B.3S

10.35
8.00

11.00
7.33
7.33

a. so
L

7.04

7.61

25.00
6.96
3.72
3.98
3.52
4.14
5.12
4.49

1

N©t shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by "the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"Cl" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"C" is th€i same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span, MCD is the shortest span in months for which the

102




average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6W
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans andjpr spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", noT/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal t© MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
component.
Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
average. This indicates that a 2-month moving average of
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month interthe seasonally adjusted series (2 months being the MCD
vals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.75 for CI to 4.13
CI is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adrandom series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
justed series usually do not.
columns, 1.47 for I and 12.00 for C, suggest that the seasonally
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes

i/c
Period
covered

Monthly series

Unit of
measure

CI

1

C

f/c

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

1

C

MCD

B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Per 100
employees .
Jan. '53- May '69. . . do
Jan. '53-June'68. Ann. rate,
bil, dol. ...
Jan. '53-June'68. Bil. dol
Jan. '53-May'69.

20, Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies.
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus..
26. Buying policy, production materials, commit-

Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.

*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting

Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan.'55-Jan.'69.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
40.
*43.
*44.
45.

Jan. '53-Oct. '68.

Ann. rate
percent
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
Ann. rate
bil". dol.'...
... do

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

Percent ....
...do
... do
...do
...do
,

Jan. '53-Dec, '69.
93. Free reserves®.
98. Change in money supply and time deposits* • •

Jan. '53-Sep. '67.
Jan. '53-Dec, '69A , |0 JJ IVlal* 'U«
r\Ug* 'sQ.Mar '7(1.

114.
115.
116.
117.
118.

Treasury bill rate®
Treasury bond yields ©
Corporate bond yields®
Municipal bond yields @
Mortgage yields, residential ®

Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil. dol, ...

Jan. '53-Sep. '68 . Pet. reporting
Jan. '53-Aug.'68. Percent
Nov. '54-Mar, '70!- ... do
Jan. '53-Mar. 70 . ... do
Jan. '53-Jan. '69- ... do
Jan. '53- Sep. '68- ... do

Unemployment rate, married males
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Average weekly insured unemploy. rate

*113. Change in consumer installment debt

Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil. dol

'53-Sep.
'53-Sep,
'53- Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep,

'68.
'68.
'68.
'68.
'68.

0.18
.16

1.41

0.17
.14

1.35

.48

.45

2.86

2*.62

3.72

3.62

3.10
2.50

4

0,82

.06

3

.86

2.09
2.15

1.56
1.52

9,80
8,17

3.39
4,22

.29
.13

4.60
3.54

6
4

C 1 ) 1.57
.96

1.70

1.47
1.61

6.85
8.04

3.05
3.19

2.53

3

.80

1.86

1.63

8.95

3.65

4.74

5

.98

1.48

1.41

6.27

2.52

1.86

8.17

3.74

1.601 11.20

3.53

0.06

1.03
.76

3.43

2.76

1.85

1,49

2

,97

3.03

1.03

.90

.38

2.33

3

.80

1.98

3.06
.05
"15
.17
.07

2.57
.04
.12
.14
.06

1.35
.02
.07
.09
.05

1.91
1.78
1.65|
1.531
1.17

3

.16

.09

.12

.72

2.78
93.44

2.80
75.38

.49

46.88

5.71
1.61

2.56

2.55

.56

4.58

2.41
2.49
.90, 3.41
.81" 2.64
.60 4.92
.72 4.82

1.65
1.77
1.51
1.54
1.66
1.79

7.83
7.67
1 . 50'
1
9.36
7.68
7.52

3.72
4.09
4.36
3.94
6.59
4.82

6
2

C 1 ) 1.53
.96

2.07

1.46
1.59

7.52
9.26

2.83
3.13

5

.94

1.50

1.42

7.00

2.65

1

3
2
2
2
1

.78

.75

2.78

2.69
.84

.50
.32

5.40
2.60

6
3

C ) 1.61

.92

.88

1,69

1.57
1.52

6.68
11.81

2.65
3.22

.15
.06
. 1
1
.08
.04

.10
.05
.10
.07
.02

.10
.04
.06
.04
.03

1.00
1.47
1.65
1.82

2
3
3
3
1

.62
.68
.71
.83
.53

2.61
2.72
2.32
2.58
8.55

1.81
6.27
7.83
1.96
1.71 10.44
8.55
1.86
7.23
1.94

3.74
4.89
3.87
4.04
8.55

6

C1)

1.41

1.35

2.57

.53

D, OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance

Jan.'58-Dec, '68. Mil. dol

122.7

121.4

13.7

8.83

«-Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©'Measures are based on unadjusted data.
2
when MCD is "6."
Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.

18.71
1

Not shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series.
This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.



"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.

103

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes

Period
covered

Quarterly series

Cl

1

C

i/c

QCD

I/C
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

A, NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200
205
210
215
217.
220.
222

GNP in current dol lars
GNP in 1958 cbllars
Implicit price deflator
.
Per capita GNP in current dollars . »
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National incoma, current dollars
Personal income current dollars

224.
225226.
227.

Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars —
Per capita disposable personal income, current dol.
Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dollars
230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current
dollars
231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant
dollars

IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
1Q'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Q'53-1IQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
Q'53-IIQ'69....

1.62
1.23
.57
1.37
1.04
1.70
1.51

.31
.30
.10
.30
.30
.35
.23

1.55
1.12
.56
1.28
.91
1.59
1.48

.20
.27
.18
.24
.33
.22
»16

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

.20
,27
.18
.24
.33
.22
.16

7.22
3.82
16.25
5.91
5.00
7.11
13.00

1.33
1.27
1.35
1.33
1.27
1.36
1.23

9.29
7.22
32.50
9.29
7.22
10.67
13.00

7.22
3.82
16.25
5.91
5.00
7.11
13.00

IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Q'53-IIQ'69-...
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

1.43
1.07
1.13

.27
.29
.26

1.39
1.00
1.07

.19
,29
.24

1
1
1

.19
.29
.24

13.00
5.91
7.22

1.27
1.33
1.27

65.00
9.29
9.29

13.00
5.91
7.22

.40

1

.40

3.82

1.44

5.91

3.'B2

IQ'53-IIQ'69"-

.82

.29

.73

IQ'53-IIQ'69....

1.44

.35

1.40

.25

1

.25

9.29

1.27

65.00

9.29

IQ'53-1Q'69....

1.05

.41

1.01

.41

1

.41

4.27

1.21

7.11

4.27

232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods IQ'53-IIQ'69....
233. Personal consunption expenditures, durable goods,
except automobiles
IQ'53-IQ'69....
234. Personal consumption expend., automobiles
Q'53-IQ'69....
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods . Q'53-IIQ'69....
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services .... Q'53-IIQ'69....

3.12

1.42

2.43

.58

1

.58

2.83

1.20

5,00

2.83

2.08
6.11
1.17
1.75

.90
3.50
.47
.22

1.83
4.22
1.13
1.71

.49
.33
.42
.13

1
1
1
1

.49
.83
.42
.13

4.57
2.46
5.91
65.00

1.23
1.28
1.25
1.23

8,00
3.56
32.50
65.00

4.57
2.46
5.91
65.00

240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Total n onresidentia! fixed investment

Q f 53-IIQ'69....
Q'53-IIQ'69....
Q'53-IIQ'69....
243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . Q'53-IIQ'69....
244 Fixed investment, residential structures
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

4.74
2.87
2.81
3.26
3.43

2.29
1.01
1.62
1.23
1.01

3.42
2.48
2.13
2.78
3.07

.67
.41
.76
.44
,33

1
1
1
1
1

.67
.41
.76
.44
.33

2.60
4.33
2.50
2.95
2.95

1.38
1.35
1.25
1.25
1.35

4.33
5.00
4.33
5.00
5.91

2.60
4.33
2.50
2.95
2.95

Exports of goods and services ............... IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Q '53-11 Q '69....
Imports of goods and services
Gov purchases of Roods and services total « • • • . Q'53-IIQ'69....
Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . . .IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Federal Government purchases of goods and
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
services for national defense
266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ'53-IIQ'69....

3.95
3.33
2.01
2.26

2.57
1.97
.56
.89

2.53
2.32
1.89
1.98

1.02
.85
.29
.45

2
1
1
1

.44
.85
.29
.45

2.60
2.83
5.91
3.25

1.33
1.27
1.27
1.35

5.00
5.91
13.00
4.64

3.76
2.83
5.91
3.25

2.20
2.40

.76
.47

1.90
2.37

.40
.20

1
1

.40
.20

2.95
21,67

1.25
1.30

5.00
21.67

2.95
21.67

270.
274
280
282
2E4
286-

Final sales, durable goods
IQ'53-IQ'69....
Final sales nondurable goods
Q'53-IQ'69 ....
Compensation of employees
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
proprietors' income
Q'53-IIQ'69....
Rental income of persons
Q'53-IIQ'69....
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. . IQ'5MQ'69....

2.27
1.26
1.68
1.26
.99
4.26

.87
.54
.25
.69
.36
2.20

1.96
1.20
1.63
.99
.89
3.31

.44
.45
.16
.69
.41
.67

1
1
1
1
1
1

.44
.45
.16
.69
.41
.67

3.76
5,82
9.29
2.32
9,29
3.05

1.31
1.21
1.27
1.35
1.23
1.23

7.11
16.00
9.29
5.42
7.22
3.76

3.76
5. 82
9.29
2.32
9.29
3.05

288
2%
292.
294.

IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

3.95
4.84
8.88

.93
2.42
7.22

3.91
3.66
4.61

.24
.66
1.57

1
1
2

.24
.66
.50

21.67
3.05
1.51

1.30
1.19
1.27

21.67
6.40
3.23

21.67
3.05
2.67

IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ F 53-IIQ'69....

8. 98
1.81

5.39
.34

6.17
1.76

.87
.19

1
1

.87
.19

2.21
21.67

1.25
1,38

3.05
21.67

2.21
21.67

3.05
3.05
13.00
3.94

252.
253
260
262.
264.

Net interest
Gross saving private and government
Personal saving
Undistributed corparate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS

11
*16
57
*61
68.
97.
110
*2QO
*20ci

New capital appropriations manufacturing ......
Corporate profits after taxes
Final sales ..*
Business expend lew plant and equipment
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing .
Total private borrowing
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars

Q'53-IIIQ'6l.
Q'53-IQ'69 ..
Q'53-IIQ'69..
Q'53-IVQ'69.

.
.
.
.

9.31
5.06
1.49
2.90

4.62
2.85
.33
.97

6.89
3.87
1.46
2.65

.67
.74
.23
.37

1
1
1
1

.67
.74
.23
.37

3.05
3.05
13.00
3.94

1.29
1.23
1.23
1.16

3.41
4.57
13.00
6.09

Q '53-1 Q '69..
Q'53-IIIQ'67..
Q'53-IVQ'69.
1Q'53-IIQ'69..
IQ'53-IIQ'69..

.
.
.
.
.

.86
5.36
10.29
1.62
1.23

.40
.84
6.50
.31
.30

.72
5.21
6.99
1.55
1.12

.56
.16
.93
.20
.27

1
1
1
1
1

.56
.16
.93
.20
.27

3.37
4,14
2.31
7.22
3.82

1.31
1.32
1.24
1.33
1.27

4.92
5. BO
3.94
9.29
7.22

3.3?
4.14
S.31
7.22
3.82

2.88
2.30
1.51
8.10
2.73

1.12
.74
.31
5.63
1.45

2.55
1.81
1.45
4.61
1.77

.44
.41
.21
1.22
.82

1
1
1
2
1

.44
.41
.21
.55
.82

3.40
4.60
6.57
1.95
2.25

1.16
1.35
1.31
1.30
1.13

5.67
5.75
9.20
3.55
3.46

3.40
4.60
6.57
2.37
2.25

C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61a
410
412.
430a
435.

Business expend new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
New car purchasss by households
Index of consumer sentiment

IQ '57-IVQ '69 .
IQ'57-IIIQ'GB.
Q'57-IIIQ'68.
Q'59-IVQ'68.
110 '57-1110 '68.

S©e definitions ef measures at end of part 1.

104




A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average duration of run
(ADR)

T/c

Period
covered

Quarterly series

7

Cl

C

T/c

for
QCD
span

QCD

Cl

1

C

.

QCD

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
252.
253
264.
530
532.

IQ'60-HQ'69....
IQ'60-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69 ....

U S official reserve assets
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other
services, exports
,
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures,

2.57
1.97
.76
.96

2.53
2.32
1.90
1.67

1.02
.85
.40
.57

2
1
1
1

.44
.85
.40
.57

2.60
2.83
2.95
2.40

1.33
1.27
1.25
1.24

5.00
5.91
5.00
3.00

3.76
2.83
2.95
2.40

3.95

2.62

2.50

1.05

2

.35

2.25

1.13

3.00

2.50

IQ'60-1Q'69 ....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....

2.16
4.12
3.91

1.14
2.74
1.80

1.75
2.46
3.31

.65
1.11
.54

1
2
1

.65
.52
.54

2.57
1.80
3.60

1.29
1.38
1.29

3.60
3.60
5,14

2.57
3.50
3.60

1Q'60-IQ'69

....

3.47

2.13

2.53

.84

1

.84

1.89

1.29

6.00

1.89

IQ'60-IQ'69

....

2.36

1.37

1.80

.76

1

.76

2.25

1.16

6.00

2.25

IQ'60-IQ'69
IQ'60-IQ'69
IQ'60-!Q'69
IQ'60-IQ'69
IQ'60-!Q'69

534
536
537
540.

3.95.
3.33
2.20
2.21

IQ'60-IQ'69 ....

Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies

542
543.
544
545
546

Income on U S investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners

....
....
....
....
....

5.87
4.51
3.60
3.99
17.73

3.89
2.09
2.29
2.71
13.66

3.58
3.94
2.72
2.63
8.97

1.09
.53
.84
1.03
1.52

2
1
1
2
2

.43
.53
.84
.35
.65

1.71
3.60
4.00
2.40
1.44

1.29
1.29
1.33
1.24
1.33

3.27
6.00
5.14
4.00
2.12

2.69
3.60
4.00
3.50
2.06

547.
543.
549.
601.
602.

IQ'60-1Q T 69
....
U S military expenditures abroad
Receipts from transportation and other services. . . IQ'60-IQ'69
....
1Q'60-1Q'69
....
Payments for transportation and other services . . .
IQ'53-IQ'69
....
Fed. receipts, nat'i. income and product accts
IQ'53-HQ'69....
Fed. expend., nat'l. income and product accts. . . .

3.72
2.42
3.19
2.62
2.13

2.25
1.37
2.44
.94
.85

2.67
2.04
1.72
2.41
1.90

.84
.67
1.42
.39
.44

1
1
2
1
1

.84
.67
.61
.39
.44

2.25
3.60
1.80
4.27
4.33

1.29
1.24
1.24
1.31
1.23

3.60
9.00
6.00
6.40
5.91

2.25
3.60
2.92
4.27
4.33

8.53
.87

7.18
.40

4.52
.71

1.59
.56

2
1

.53
.56

1.44
3.25

1.27
1.23

3.61
8.13

3.20
3.25

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
858

Output per man-hour total private nonfarm

IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

»t3eries included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
W
C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.

"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,




and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2* are shown as "3",
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series, It is shown for 1-quarter spa_ns and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no T/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1,75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
1.44 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter

105

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.27 for I
and 3,61 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3,20 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series

(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.44 for CI to 3.20 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes

Quarterly series

Period
covered

Unit of
measure

CI

T

C

r/c

QCD

I/C
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

1

C

QCD

A, NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
IQ'53-IIQ'69... Ann. rate,
bil.dol,...
IQ f 53-IIQ'69... ... do
250 Net exports of goods and services
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods. IQ'53-IQ'69.... ...do
275, Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods . IQ'53-IQ'69.... ...do
... do
|Q'53-|Q'69
7Q8 finuprn input QitrnliK nr ripfirit tntal
245 Change in business inventories total

1.31
.74
1.23
2.34
.63

2
1
2
2
1

.52
.74
.55
.88
.63

1.67
2.32
1.56
1.45
3.20

1.33
1.35
1.31
1.23
1,36

3.82
3.61
2.78
2.46
4.00

2.78
2.32

1.14

2

.48

2.52

1.29

3.32

3.44

2
1

.39
.48

2.37
2.70

1.28
1.48

4.92
3.65

4.20
2. 70

2

.52

1.67

1.33

3.82

2.78

2.85
.86
2.39
1.47
2.71

2.0D
.46
1.62
1.27
1.40

1.53
.63
1.32
.54
2.23

.30

.22

.20

.46
. 1
1

.32
.05

.32 1.00
. 1 .48
1

2.B5

2.00

a. 74
2.17
3.20

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS

15, Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg,< . , IQ'53-IVQ'68... Cents
22. Ratio of profits to income originating,
IQ'53-1Q'69.... Percent ....
corporate all industries.
IQ'53-IIIQ'68... ...do
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus. loans® .
IQ'53-IIQ'69... Ann. rate,
245 Change in business inventories, total . .
bil.dol....
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
480 Change in Insight carloadings©

1.53

1.31

IQ'57-IIIQ'68-. Mil. cars ... 93.26 53.01 56.21

.94

1

.94

2.30

1,35

3.07

a. so

1

.90

1.71

1.33

3.00

1.71

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS

250. Balance on goods and services, excluding
IQ'60-IQ'69.... Mil. dol
military grants
520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity balance
bgsis
IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
522, U.S. balance of payments, official settlements
basis
IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
525. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers iquidity balance basis ......... IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
527. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers official settlements basis
IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
560 Foreign dirert investments in the U S
IQ'GO-IQ'69.... ...do
561 U S direct investments abroad
IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
564 Foreign purchases of U S securities
IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
565 U S purchases of foreign securities
IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
570, Government grants and capital transactions,
net
IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do
F
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . .IQ'60-IQ 69.... ...do
600. Fed, balance, nat'l. income and product accts. IQ'53-IIQ'69... Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
850 Ratio output to capacity manufacturing
857 Vacancy rute in total rental housing®

IQ'53-IIQ'69...
IQ'53-IIIQ'68 ..
IQ'56-IIQ'68...

139.6

154.3

.90

400.1 296.7

202.7

1.46

2

.57

1.52

1.23

2.78

2.74

572,3

355.5

286.5

1.24

2

.80

2.00

1.50

2.25

2.19

571.6

422.5

266.4

1.59

2

.70

1.89

1.38

3.00

2.33

637.0
65.8
219.4
141.6
124.8

384.3
55.9
169.6
105.7
101.3

330.3
33.3
88.2
86.6
64.2

1.16
1.68
1.92
1.22
1.58

2
3
3
2
2

1.80
1.44
1.50
.56 1.80
.41 1.33

S

1.50
1.24
1.38
1.29
1.16

3.00
1.89
2.57
3.00
2.7?

2.19
1.94
2.83
2.19
2.33

265.6
289.2

216.1 117.8
213.6 157.7

1.84
1.36

2
2

.77
.63

1.50
1.44

1.24
1.33

a. oo
2.00

2.19
1.84

238.8

.70

2.69

* Series included in the 1966 MBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
wh©n QCD is "31',

2.08

.73

1

.73

2.29

1.33

4.00

2.29

4.16
1.72
.26

...do
Percent —
...do

1.51

1.55
.69
.16

3.47
1.40
.17

.45
.49
.93

1
1
1

.45
.49
.93

2.95
2.82
2.04

1.30
1.41
1.36

ij.OO
3.65
3.27

2.9,1
2.82
2.04

©Measures are based on unadjusted data.

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.

106



"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
_
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
<f d j>y subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.

determi

All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.

B. Current Adjustment Factors
IS)69

1970

Series
July
4. Nonagncultural placements, all
industries1
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance. . . .
1

13. New business incorporations

15. Profits {after2taxes) per dollar of
sales, mfg,
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
insurance companies1 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
49. Nonagricultural job openings
unfilled
72, Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
5

112. Change in business loans
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery.
616. Defense Department obligations,
total
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement

107.0

Aug.

110.7

Sept.

Oct.

NOV.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

119.6

113.9

92.8

82.7

84.2

81.7

92.0

114.6

91.9

122.9

84.6

71.1

80.3

102.0

91.4

92.9

104.2

103.3

151.4

82.0

103.2

110.6

+18

+126

-140

+228

102.5

92.6

86.8

91.2

95.2

97.1

111.1

93.7

108.6

101.0
90.6
108.4

97.7

+157

98.6

98.0

135.2

102.9

96.2

+107

99.1

Apr.

-331

100.3

-356

100.5

115.6

106.5

94.1

79.3

82.9

84.5

99.3

99.0

101.0

98.6

99.8

98.9

99.3

100.9

101.5

99.7

99.1

99.4

99.3

100.2

100.4

92.3

93.2

94.3

99.0

99.7

102.6

106.8

99.0
105.3

June

100.2

113.7

77.6
98.0

80.6
105.1

103.7

-85

109.3

107.0

109.4

May

+73

-2

106.0

105.5

+251

106.4
91.8

94.7

94.2

109.4

122.0

103.9

100.4

101.0

99.7

101.9

99.9

100.5

100.3

100.8

110.0

97.4

97.5

100.9

98.5

101.7

114.1

104.0

84.8

90.9

94.7

82.8

91.6

94.8

94.0

147.4

58.2

102.6

142.2

112.6

76.8

90.3

81.6

75.5

87.0

89.6

92.8

199.1

87.9

115.0

79.4

95.9

86.9
-15

86.7

81.7

81.2
+15

97.7

176.1

625. Military contract awards in U.S. . . . 101.7
-10
D34. Profits, manufacturing ( FNCB)6. . .

98.7
+10

NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
•'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.




107

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.,
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been sea*
sonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures ore shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.

This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Dato are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time* See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide1* for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series* Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted

Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Feb.

Jan*

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

Aug.

July

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1Q

11 Q

31* CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES* TOTAL1
(ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PfRICH

86
.

7*1

45
.

20
.

9.0

11.4

5.1

5*2

50
.

96
.
19
.
29.2
97
.

0*3
•03
•.
117.8
-1.1

-3.1
5.3
16*4
-0.2

-7.8
36
.
16.6
-2.2

-6*5
83
.
14.5
-4.5

-5.5
7.3
9*4
2*2

-4.4
-3.2
54
.
-3.0

-2.9
21.9
52
.
-1.0

1*0
17.8
0*1
10*8

-4.0
20.0
28
.
93
.

15..
93.
1954..*
1955. *•
15..
96.

19.6
-4.7
4.5
91
.

2*2
-3.5
3.2
12.7

54
.
-3.8
7*6
5.1

87
.
-4.6
08
.
13.1

3*9
-3.8

57
.
-4.6

95
.
-4.2

26
.
-5.4

2*6
-0*9

45..
97.
i5..
98.
15..
99.
J&960...

66
.
-4.7

24
.
-7.1

1*9
-5.4

37
.
-8.3

-0*1
-6*8

09
.
-3.1

30
.
-3.7

10.6

15*0

94
.

07
.

6*8

24
.

40
.

70
.
-2,8
-0.5
-3.8

196*.,.
Jt962...
IL963.,.
U6..
94.

-3.7
7*3
23
.
60
.

-1*8

-6*4

07
.

1.3

1:1
n.6

3*1
46
.

1.8

5.1

63
.

47
.

1965. t •
16..
96.
1967.**
16..
98.

11*6
80
.
12.0
4.0

41.5
16.2

15.3
14*4

85
.
14*0

92
.
19.9

96
.
20, 0

11.1
14.7

85
.

4.1

15.9

2*4

12. a
36
.
23
.

20,5
28
.
6*3

10«3
10*4
2.1

6
.
-4.
4
.
92
.

50
.
-3.5
68
.
6,4

-5.2
(?)
8*5
67
.

37
.
-3.0
6*4
78
.

36
.
-5.7
4.1
11.0

1*5
-6.1
10.3
3,3

5.2
-0.8
O.S
08
.

-3.3
40
.
50
.
-3.7

1.8
-2*1
5*0
2*9

-4.0
73
.
29
.
5,1

0*3
60
.
44
.

32
.
47
.
47
.

43
.
37
,
5.5

1*0
54
.
4*4

17.3
17.9

-55,5
24.0

7. a

4.8
45
.
4.2
13,7

5.0

14..
99.
1950. . *
15..
91.
15..
92.

14..
9B.

1IIQ

10.5
12.9

9.1
1.
80

82
.
14.6
55
.
88
.

10.6
18*7
10*1
12*5

96
.
16*0
6*5
10*1

32 US
33 603

122 380
133 680

-0*9

5.2

..
.

!>*8

-7.2
17.4
3.2
37
.

2.3
2,3
21.8
1.5

-5.0
-3.8

-V.I
i .2

-3.4
-0.3

9,1
-4.0

5*6
4*2
-S.2
2*2

-.
66
23
.
1.8
-1.5

-2.1
2.1
-1*2
1*4

08
.
77
.
14.3
-10.9

4.1

5*2

57
.

0*8
6,5

11.2
15.6

24
.
13.5

56
.
19.6

8,8
IS.,7

;>*5

11.2

is!
-i.

5.5

13.4

** ,

16..
99.
1970.**
54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1947*. • 9 583
1948.** 10 88?

9 El!)2
10 E166

1949.**
1950* ••
1951...
15..
92.

9 769
11 021

9 947
11 210

10 061
10 906

10 146
11 173

10 176
11 257

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

10 141
11 331

10 462
11 230

10 609
11 240

10 792
11 15?

10 842
It 404

29 204
32 770

30 154
33 289

30 779
33 818

10
11
13
13

949
339
885
030

11
11
13
13

699
589
716
274

11
11
13
12

191
674
021
890

11
11
12
13

290
716
735
208

11
11
12
13

223
916
840
708

11
12
12
13

217
345
792
885

10
13
12
13

993
300
651
512

11
13
12
13

106
349
936
212

11
12
12
13

263
694
855
430

11
12
13
14

160
358
094
047

11
12
13
13

22;L
060
090
89 1

11
12
12
14

052
959
924
266

33
34
40
39

239
602
622
194

33
35
38
40

730
977
367
801

33
39
38
40

362
343
442
154

33
37
39
42

433
386
117
204

133
147
156
162

764
308
548
353

1 5 . . 14
93.
1 5 . . 13
94.
1 5 . . 14
95.
1956. . .
15

352
712
765
495

14
14
14
IS

325
055
B'»6
370

14
14
15
15

418
020
005
663

14
13
15
15

218
991
255
516

14
13
15
15

167
957
260
771

14
14
15
15

146
272
126
797

14
13
15
15

090
991
404
744

14
13
15
15

017
996
418
626

14
14
15
15

007
073
677
906

14
14
15
15

060
061
715
933

13
14
15
16

85£
406
652
106

13
14
15
16

719
671
531
193

43
41
44
46

095
787
666
528

42
42
45
47

531
220
641
084

42
42
46
47

114
060
499
476

41
43
46
48

634
158
898
232

169
169
183
169

374
225
704
320

15..
97.
1!8.
9S..
15. •
99.
I6..
90.

329
659
583
092

16
16
17
If)

6H
:
374
7U
1S«

16
16
17
18

453
319
860
139

16
16
17
18

493
535
871
615

16
16
18
18

534
517
Oil
337

16
16
18
18

820
476
175
312

16
16
18
16

799
746
169
126

16
16
18
18

967
853
265
190

16
16
16
18

641
745
046
173

16
16
18
18

782
662
178
333

16
17
17
18

699
048
699
071

16
17
17
17

647
605
617
939

49
49
53
54

417
352
155
390

49
49
54
55

847
528
057
264

50
50
54
54

607
344
500
491

50
51
S3
54

128
315
494
343

199
200
215
218

999
539
206
488

1961 . . 17 953
.
1 6 . , 19 009
92.
19«3... 20 301
1964..* 21 046

17
19
20
21

869
Oil
146
143

18
19
20
21

07t»
331
309
296

17
19
20
21

758
436
397
472

18
19
20
21

025
568
266
762

18
19
20
21

159
317
419
779

16
19
20
21

145
623
656
687

18
19
20
22

345
745
630
195

18
19
20
22

377
804
579
404

18
20
20
21

708
115
937
538

IB
20
20
21

840
220
701
740

18
20
21
22

847
216
156
751

53
57
60
63

920
351
758
465

53
SB
61
65

942
321
064
013

54
59
61
66

867
172
865
466

56
60
62
66

395
551
794
029

219
235
246
261

124
395
501
013

1965..*
1966. ••
1967.**
1968*.*

23
24
25
27

063
993
47B
42D

22
25
25
27

834
430
758
964

23
25
25
27

026
064
940
760

23
24
25
28

383
653
966
125

23
25
26
28

243
222
486
287

23
25
26
28

622
328
325
641

23
25
26
28

697
615
298
725

23
25
26
28

760
667
899
286

24
25
26
26

373
557
129
665

24
25
26
28

667
566
396
771

24
25
26
28

755
384
545
463

68
75
77
82

615
342
064
396

69
74
78
84

652
959
394
172

71
76
79
65

079
610
522
652

73
76
79
05

795
507
070
899

283
303
314
338

341
418
050
121

16
16
17
18

22
24
25
27

918
919
828
014

1969* ••
17..
90.
56 . MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

TOTAL FOR PER 103
..
.

14..
98.

34 353

14..
99.
1950. * •
1951,**
15..
92.

35
33
45
43

053
632
242
279

34
34
44
43

737
464
583
664

34
34
43
43

489
893
9B3
296

34
35
43
43

189
474
250
767

33
36
43
44

521
686
566
228

33
38
43
44

648
462
172
346

33
42
42
43

065
054
082
452

33
43
42
44

623
205
807
268

34
41
42
45

189
024
703
721

32
40
43
47

915
665
193
139

33
39
43
46

275
880
140
653

32
43
42
47

1953 . .
.
1954,.*
15..
95.*
19S6».*

47
45
49
53

760
968
320
110

46
46
49
52

392
435
828
874

48
46
50
53

987
183
744
235

46
46
51
53

935
64O
334
660

48
45
51
53

904
866
467
768

48
46
51
54

396
549
645
124

49
46
51
51

372
180
885
804

46
45
51
53

185
798
784
695

47
45
52
54

828
842
907
439

47
46
52
55

540
Oil
842
209

46
47
S3
55

333
465
246
613

15..
97.
1958..*
19S9*.*
I960,**

56
53
57
61

568
701
701
806

57
52
58
61

006
036
714
555

56
52
59
61

597
305
341
075

55
52
60
61

770
333
529
660

55
52
61
60

651
754
377
827

56
53
61
60

119
593
333
672

56
54
61
60

133
071
013
466

56
54
59
59

682
802
013
927

55
55
56
60

601
020
895
374

55
55
58
60

513
631
769
185

54
56
58
59

1961,..
1962.,*
1963.**
16..
94.

56
64
66
71

675
347
399
901

58
64
67
71

948
348
563
662

59
65
67
71

893
216
644
438

59
65
6B
72

468
274
211
562

60
65
68
73

216
186
201
360

61
64
68
73

204
810
874
244

60
65
69
74

539
025
986
128

61
65
69
74

996
632
275
004

62
65
69
75

191
772
584
026

63
66
70
73

002
218
602
874

1965.»*
1966. *,.
1967. «.
1968.*.

77
85
88
93

241
197
078
155

77
85
87
93

1$9
429
323
729

78
87
67
94

818
031
632
431

79
86
67
94

145
437
656
521

79
66
88
96

137
151
016
036

79
87
89
97

477
680
184
390

80
66
88
98

645
746
508
335

81
87
69
97

270
926
967
048

80
88
90
98

212
441
113
519

82
88
89
99

109
877
072
643

34 131

34 360

34 890

34 702

35 398

35 881

36 053

36 012

35 864

422 897

102 864

104 990

107 946

107 097

934
028
733
496

104
102
133
130

279
989
808
239

101
110
129
132

356
622
988
341

100
126
127
133

877
283
592
461

99
IKS
129
141

124
573
066
486

405
463
520
537

638
467
454
529

45
48
53
56

602
603
391
255

145
136
149
159

139
586
892
219

146
138
154
161

237
855
446
552

145
137
156
159

385
820
576
936

139
142
159
167

475
079
481
077

576
557
620
647

236
340
395
786

946
645
466
415

53
57
60
59

837
077
434
626

170
156
175
184

171
842
756
436

167
158
183
183

540
680
239
159

166
163
178
160

616
893
921
769

164
169
177
179

296
353
669
226

670
650
715
727

623
768
605
590

63
67
69
74

634
118
794
692

63
66
71
76

975
012
122
983

177
193
201
215

516
911
606
001

160
195
205
219

886
270
286
166

184
196
208
223

726
429
B45
156

190
199
211
225

611
348
518
549

733
784
827
882

741
958
255
874

83
87
90
100

391
929
770
107

83
B7
92
98

799
910
147
787

233
257
263
281

248
657
033
315

237
260
264
287

759
268
856
947

242
263
266
293

327
113
586
902

249
264
271
298

962 633
299
716 1 045 754
969 1 066 466
537 1 161 701

35 571

35 662

1969.**
17..
90.
l
^l«30 laot ohewn horo, t,hio ocrieo «ao been revised beginning January 1967.
8
Theoo ocrico oontuin ne revl«ie»o but arc reprinted far the eonvcnlcneo ef the uoer.
Z intfieateo value leoo ttean /0.03/.

108



(MAY 1970)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (o) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.

Monthly

Quarterly

Year
Jon.

Feb.

Mar.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

2 128
3 366
5 662
8 252

2 141
3 501
5 807
8 448

2 208
3 670
6 002
8 503

2 295
3 857
6 271
8 644

2 370
4 015
6 444
6 811

2 103
2 647
4 641
7 317

2 111
3 049
5 286
7 910
9 796
13 043
14 451
16 605

IP
14
14
17

436
281
591
459

11
14
14
19

352
401
979
OOtt

11
14
14
19

352
401
979
004

1Q

II Q

66. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
14..
95.
1946*.*
14..
97.
1948*.*
1949*..
15,.
90.
1951*.*
15..
92.

2 110
2 476
4 278
6 799

2 084
2 560
4 462
6 996

Annual

Aug.

2 103
2 647
4 641
7 317

2 080
2 790
4 849
7 630
9 393
12 384
14 613
15 545

9
12
14
16

IV Q

END OF PERIOD

2 111
3 049
5 286
7 910

2 124
3 190
5 478
8 076

624
686
551
026

9 796
13 043
14 451
16 605

9 956
13 524
14 312
16 976

10
13
14"
17

198
920
492
174

10
14
14
17

436
281
591
459

10
14
14
16

729
411
665
018

11
14
14
16

058
391
842
450

11
14
14
19

352
401
979
004

9 148
12 118
14 661
15 323

2 085
2 925
5 078
7 797

IIIQ

2 141
3 501
5 807
8 448

2 370
4 015
6 444
8 811

2 370
4 015
6 444
8 611

874
576
535
091

8
11
14
15

981
835
614
243

9 148
12 118
14 661
15 323

1 5 , . 19 547
93.
1 5 . . 22 593
94,
1 5 . . 23 512
95.
1 5 . . 28 732
96.

20
22
23
29

000
683
930
120

20
22
24
29

540
589
501
457

20
22
25
29

970
660
021
759

21
22
25
29

271
538
507
977

21
22
36
30

488
524
032
157

21
22
26
30

800
566
477
311

21
22
26
30

948
537
966
552

22
22
27
30

052
533
477
664

22
22
27
30

258
632
767
839

22
22
28
31

497
823
066
058

22
23
28
31

532
083
420
223

20
22
24
29

540
589
501
457

21
22
26
30

488
524
032
157

22
22
27
30

052
533
477
664

22
23
26
31

532
083
420
223

22
23
28
31

532
083
420
223

1 5 , . 31 417
97,
1 5 . . 33 4 8
98.
0
1 5 , . 33 492
99.
1 6 . . 38 941
90.

31
33
33
39

674
271
914
438

31
33
34
39

883
129
328
889

32
33
34
40

075
028
779
370

32
32
35
40

305
921
221
658

32
32
35
40

529
827
707
995

32
32
36
41

758
806
222
293

32
32
36
41

926
763
840
537

33
32
37
41

078
713
430
834

33
32
37
41

202
743
950
9SB

33
32
36
42

305
793
279
111

33
33
38
42

341
065
539
245

31
33
34
39

883
129
328
889

32
32
35
40

529
827
707
995

33
32
37
41

076
713
430
834

33
33
36
42

341
065
539
245

33
33
38
42

341
065
539
245

16..
91.
16..
92.
16..
93,
16..
94.

42
43
48
55

247
264
345
083

42
43
48
55

187
561
853
734

42
43
49
56

202
894
371
38l

42
44
49
56

075
390
958
925

42
44
50
57

105
841
457
619

42
45
51
58

167
296
021
235

42
45
51
58

181
691
617
828

42
46
52
59

282
085
208
357

42
46
52
60

350
359
708
039

42
46
53
60

527
787
381
604

42
47
53
60

764
306
899
921

43
47
54
61

076
791
428
542

42
43
49
56

202
894
371
381

42
45
51
58

167
296
021
235

42
46
52
60

350
359
70S
039

43
47
54
61

076
791
426
542

43
«7
54
61

076
791
426
542

16.*
95.
16..
96.
16..
97.
16..
96.

62
70
76
79

210
480
191
579

62
71
76
80

892
078
309
315

63
71
76
80

543
718
546
937

64
72
76
81

415
193
636
578

65
72
76
82

174
653
66
2
310

65
73
77
83

904
217
146
026

66
73
77
83

688
808
403
883

67
74
77
84

386
320
801
817

68
74
78
85

078
727
114
532

68
75
76
86

698
102
430
479

69
75
78
87

348
596
821
313

69
75
79
88

941
989
180
088

63
71
76
80

543
718
546
937

65
73
77
83

904
217
146
026

66
74
78
85

06
7
727
114
532

69
75
79
66

941
989
180
068

69
75
79
88

941
989
180
068

8
11
14
15

16,.
99.
17..
90.
71, MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES* TOTAL BOOK VALUE2
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

END OF PERIOD

14..
98.

47.52

4.4
82

4.3
88

4.0
92

4.6
93

50,11

51.06

5.9
14

51.92

52*34

52.56

52.51

4.3
66

50.11

51.92

52.51

52^51

1949.,*
15..
90.
15..
91.
15..
92.

5.0
33
4.6
96
6.6
22
7.2
07

5.3
33
4.3
96
6.4
37
7.3
06

5.6
30
5.7
00
65,27
7.2
06

52.41
5.7
03
6.5
66
7.3
04

51.87
51.06
6.7
78
7.5
00

51.42
51.67
6.5
86
7,3
02

51.05
51.40
69.10
6.9
99

50.81
53.23
69*53
6.1
99

5.9
08
54.71
6.3
95
7.0
08

5.6
05
56.36
6.7
97
71.58

50.10
5.7
83
6.8
99
7.6
20

49.50
59.82
70*24
7.8
23

53.06
5.7
00
6.7
52
7.2
06

51*42
51.67
6.5
86
7.3
02

5.9
08
54.71
6.3
95
7.0
06

4.0
95
5.2
98
7.4
02
72.38

4.0
95
59.82
70*24
7.6
23

15..
93.
15..
94.
1955..*
15..
96.

74.01
75.73
73.55
8.7
02

74.19
7.4
54
73.82
81.33

7.4
46
75.12
74.45
81,75

75.37
7.4
47
74.52
8.4
28

7.9
56
7.2
44
7.2
50
83.51

76.17
7.4
40
75,69
8,4
40

7.6
69
7.0
37
76.24
8.2
45

77,19
7,4
32
76,98
8.6
49

77.41
73.17
7.9
73
8.3
56

7.9
69
7.5
28
76.33
8.5
60

7.0
64
73.20
7.1
69
6.4
69

76*12
73.18
7.2
95
8.0
73

7.4
46
75.12
7.5
44
81.75

76.17
7.4
40
7.9
56
8.4
40

77.41
73.17
7.9
73
8.3
56

76.12
73.18
7.2
95
6.0
73

76.12
73.18
7.2
95
6,0
73

15..
97.
1958..*
15..
99.
I6.*
90.

87.85
8.6
86
87.12
9.8
27

6.5
80
8.7
80
87.52
9.6
38

8.1
82
8.2
76
8.4
79
9.4
46

88.52
8.2
69
89*16
9.0
47

88.51
86*35
8.9
96
9.6
52

88,58
8.9
60
90.51
95,46

8.3
66
8.9
57
91.12
9.9
57

8.2
94
85.56
91.08
9.8
54

8.8
96
85.91
9.5
06
9.7
56

89.1,6
66.10
9.0
06
9.4
55

68*99
8.8
62
9.0
07
9.6
56

8.5
90
6.2
69
91.89
94,75

86.21
8,2
76
8,4
79
94.64

8.8
65
8.9
60
9.1
05
9.6
54

8,6
98
85.91
9.5
06
9,7
56

8,5
90
8.2
69
91.89
9.5
47

8.5
90
6.2
69
91.69
9.5
47

16..
91.
16..
92.
16..
93.
16..
94.

9.4
44
9.4
63
101*34
160
0.2

9.9
42
9.4
69
101.61
106.41

9.6
37
9.5
75
101.87
167
0.9

93.82
9.6
77
120
0.3
107.37

9.3
39
98*49
102.45
107,91

93.84
9.5
90
129
0.8
108.30

9.2
40
9.9
93
103. 37
108*40

9.4
43
99.72
137
0.2
187
0.0

9.5
46
100.23
104,15
109.59

9.6
47
100.71
104.63
196
0,2

95.33
107
0.6
105.17
110.40

9.3
57
101.15
105.52
111.55

9.6
37
97.55
101.67
106*79

9.4
38
9.5
90
129
0.8
163
0.0

9.5
46
102
0.3
104.15
195
0.9

9.3
57
101.15
105.52
111.55

9,3
57
101*15
105.52
111.55

16..
95.
16..
96.
16..
97.
16..
9S.

112.52
121.81
138.18
144.03

112.89
123.16
138.66
147
4.4

114.16
143
2.6
139.07
145*08

114.67
125.52
196
3.2
164
4.0

115*64
127.19
139.87
147.73

116.44
128.85
139.81
148,44

117.36
130.08
102
4.7
189
4.7

118.30
131.38
108
4.4
149.82

118.50
132,50
141.18
150.65

118.96
134.14
141.39
152.02

119.70
157
3.0
142.48
152.83

121.14
137.18
143.69
153.76

114.16
124,36
139.07
150
4.8

116.44
128.85
139.81
148.44

119. 50
132.50
141.18
150.65

121.14
137,18
143.69
153,76

121.14
137.18
143*69
153,76

16...
99
17..
90.

113. NET CHANGE IN CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT1
(ANNUAL RATEt BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

14..
95.
14..
96.
14..
97.
14..
98.

00
.7
1.19
27
.6
3.13

-0.16
1.42
2.72
26
.5

0*28
1.13
24
.4
3.31

-0.18
1.72
26
.2
3.19

00
.5
1.55
24
.6
23
.8

02
.0
1.39
24
.0
20
.3

0.17
1.64
20
.3
2.54

00
.6
20
.8
19
.8
2,38

02
.9
19
.0
18
.7
2.52

0,,78
20
.8
25
.6
0,7
,7

09
.2
2.11
3.32
1.19

09
.5
23
.3
3.12
1.52

00
.6
1.25
26
.4
30
.3

00
.2
1.55
2*49
2.53

0.17
1.87
19
.6
24
.8

08
.6
2.17
30
.0
1.16

02
.9
1,71
2.52
2,30

14..
99.
15..
90.
1951.*.
15..
92.

06
.4
27
.7
1.37
1.45

1.37
34
.4
07
.9
20
.4

17
.6
3.16
07
.0
1.31

2.63
3.18
-.9
04
27
.8

3.12
37
.3
-.7
04
5.58

26
.8
47
.0
-0.58
68
.9

24
.4
6*36
-1.45
44
.4

27
.6
44
.3
1.80
25
.8

28
.8
43
.7
1.50
38
.8

38
,9
1.73
08
,9
64
.3

36
.5
-.4
08
1.72
5.16

33
.2
0*26
1.32
67
.4

1.26
3.12
09
.5
16
.0

2.81
36
.7
-0.51
50
.8

26
.9
50
.7
06
.2
36
.3

36
.2
03
.9
1.31
6.12

26
.0
3,11
05
.9
4.11

15..
93.
15..
94.
15..
95.
15..
96.

64
.7
-.8
07
38
.6
37
.4

52
.8
O.16
50
.2
46
.6

6. 5
. 0
-1.16
68
.5
40
.4

47
.9
03
.4
62
.4
3.62

40
.1
-.6
05
58
.3
26
.2

28
.3
02
.6
63
.0
2.16

37
.0
07
,4
53
.4
1.85

2.15
02
.9
58
.7
2*89

1.91
08
.3
6.13
1.34

22
.8
1.45
34
.8
2.10

24
.5
1.91
35
.9
26
.3

O8
.6
32
.9
42
.5
1.98

60
.8
-.9
05
52
.4
4.15

38
.8
00
.1
6.12
2.80

25
.9
06
.2
57
.6
20
.3

1*86
22
.2
37
,7
22
.4

36
.0
05
,6
52
,3
2,60

15..
97.
15..
98.
1959. **
16..
90.

2.33
08
.0
5.12
4.82

30
.8
-1.64
50
.6
59
.6

2.51
-1.70
49
.7
5.41

23
.0
-1.21
5.41
57
.7

27
.6
-1.28
5.30
34
.6

26
.9
-1.13
5.83
40
.4

27
.5
-.5
02
6.18
35
.8

20
.2
-.2
05
7,42
29
.3

1.82
-0,60
70
.8
35
.6

1.49
03
.6
62
.4
1,49

1.24
06
.0
39
.5
18
.4

04
.3
32
.6
3.12
1.61

26
.4
-0.85
5.05
54
.0

2.58
-1.21
5.51
44
.2

22
.0
-.6
04
68
.9
33
.6

10
.5
1.41
44
.4
1.65

2.12
-.6
02
54
.7
3.71

16..
91.
16..
92.
16..
93.
16..
94.

00
.2
2*26
66
.5
7. 66

-.2
07
35
.6
6.10
7.81

0.16
40
.0
62
.2
77
.6

-1.52
59
.5
70
.4
65
.3

03
.6
5.41
59
.9
83
.3

07
.4
54
.6
67
.7
73
.9

0.17
47
.4
7.15
7.12

1.21
47
.3
70
.9
63
.5

08
.2
32
.9
60
.0
8.18

2.12
5.14
80
.6
67
.8

> 28
.4
62
.5
62
.2
3.80

37
.4
58
.0
63
.5
74
.5

-0.17
3.27
63
.2
7.81

-0.14
5*61
66
.0
74
.2

07
.3
42
.5
67
.5
72
.2

29
.0
57
.3
68
.8
6.01

08
.3
47
,2
66
.4
7.11

16..
95.
16..
96.
1 6 . **
97
16..
98.

80
.2
64
.7
2.42
47
.9

81
.8
7.18
1.42
88
.3

78
.1
76
.8
2.84
74
.6

10.46
57
.0
1.08
76
.9

9.11
5.52
22
.8
87
.8

67
.6
67
.7
38
.4
85
.9

9.41
70
.9
30
.8
1.8
02

83
.8
6,14
47
.8
11.21

83
.0
48
.6
37
.6
85
.6

74
.4
45
.0
37
.9
11.36

76
.0
59
.3
46
.9
10.01

7.12
47
.2
4.31
93
.0

60
.0
7.11
22
.3
70
.3

94
.4
60
.0
2.40
83
.5

87
.0
60
.4
38
.7
1.2
00

74
.5
50
.5
42
.6
10.22

84
.0
60
.5
3.19
89
.1

16..
99.
1970..*
1
lhese
2

series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
SInce last shown here, this series has been revised beginning January 1967.




(MAY 1970)

109

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contain;, historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published hero for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
lor each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <u) (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title* Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are oft<;n based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Jan.

F : «b.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

851. RATlOi INVENTORIES TO SALES t MANUFACTURING AND TRADE t TOTAL1
(RATIO)

II Q

IIIQ

Annual
IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

...

1948..*

1.3ft

1.,'il

1*42

1.41

1.42

1.42

1.42

1*43

1,44

1.46

1.48

1*47

1.40

1.42

1,43

1.47

1.43

1<>U9...
1950...
1951..*
195?,* . *

1.52
1*48
1.36
1.63

1 -84

l.«3
1 • 62

.54
,43
.48
.63

1.S3
1.42
1.54
1.61

1.55
1.39
1.56
1.58

1,53
1.34
1.59
1.58

1.54
1.22
1.64
1.61

.51
.23
,62
,58

1.49
1.33
1.63
1.55

1.54
1.39
1.62
1.52

1.51
1,4$
1.62

1.54

1.50
1.39
1*64
1.52

1.53
1.45
1.43
1.63

1.54
1.38
1.56
1.59

1.51
1.26
1.63
1*56

1.52
1.41
1,63
1.53

1.52
1,38
1,56
1.58

1953.,.
1954.. •
1955.,.
1956...

1.5S
1*65
1.49
1.51

1,53
1,62
1*48
1.54

.52
.63
.47
,54

1.54
1.60
1.45
1.54

1.55
1.62
1.46
1.55

1.57
1.60
1.47
1.55

1.56
1.60
1.47
1.63

.60
.60
.49
.58

1.62
1.60
1.46
1.57

1*62
1.58
1.48
1.56

1.6!>
1.54
1.4(1
1.56

1.67
1*51
1.49
1*55

1.53
1.63
1.48
1.53

1.55
1.61
1.46
1.55

1.59
1.60
1.47
1,59

1.65
1.54
1*48
1.56

1*58
1*60
1.47
1.56

1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...

1*55
1.65
1.51
1.50

1.54
1.67
1.49
1.52

1,56
1,66
1,48
1,55

1.59
1*66
1*47
1*54

1.59
1.64
1.46
1.S7

1.58
1.61
1.48
1.57

1.58
1.59
1*49
1.58

.58
.56
.54
,59

1.61
1.56
1.54
1.58

1.61
1.55
1.54
1.59

1.6;
1.52
1.55
1.61

1.65
1.52
1*52
1.59

1.55
1.67
1.49
1.52

1.59
1.64
1.47
1.56

1*59
1,57
1,52
1*58

1.63
1.53
1*54
1.60

1.59
1,60
1.51
1.57

1961*,*
1962* • »
1963.*,
1964.,*

1.61
1.50
1.53
1.47

1.40
1*!31
1.30
1.40

1,57
1.50
1.51
1.49

1*58
1.50
l.SO
1*48

1*56
1.51
1,50
1.47

1.53
1.53
1.50
1.48

1.55
1.53
1.48
1.46

,52
.52
1.50
1.47

1.52
1.52
1.50
1.46

1.50
1.52
1.48
1*48

1,50
1.50
1.51
1.48

1.50
1*53
1.48
1.45

1.59
1.50
1.51
1.48

1.56
1.51
l.SO
1.48

1,53
1.52
1.49
1.46

l.SO
1.52
1.49
1.47

1.54
1.51
1.50
1.47

1965..,
1966.**
1967..*
1968,.*

1.46
1.43
1.57
1.55

U*16
1.41!}
1,5.9
l.£4

1,45
1.43
1.59
1.54

1.45
1*45
1*59
1.55

1.46
1.48
1.59
1.54

1.47
1.47
1.57
1.52

1.45
1.50
1.58
1.51

1,46
1*49
1.57
1*54

1.48
1.50
1.57
1.53

1.45
1.51
1.59
1.53

1.44
1.54
1.57
1.53

1.45
1*56
1.56
1.56

1.46
1.43
1.58
1.54

1.46
1.47
1.58
1.54

1.46
1.50
1.57
1,53

1.45
1.S4
1.57
1.S4

1.46
1.48
l.Sfl
U54

i,na

1969...
1970.,.
D47. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION— 24 INDUSTRIES 2
(PERCENT R I S I N G OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

AVERAGE FOR PERKQB

1947,..
1949...

...
60.4

75.0
54. ;>

68.7
47.9

54.2
58.3

52.1
58.3

50.0
60.4

54.2
50.0

56.2
50.0

77.1
20.8

79,2
56.2

61.2
22.9

70.8
27.1

.. *
54.2

52.1
59.0

62.5
40.3

77.1
35.4

***
47*2

194<>...
1950.,.
195)1...
1952...

22.9
75,0
54.2
75.0

sa.j.
77.1

16.*'
75.0

37.5
70.8
62.5
50*0

18.7
87.5
58.3
47.9

20.8
81.2
35,4
62.5

50.0
95.8
37.5
68.7

50.0
97.9
29*2
47.9

70,8
89.6
33.3
91.7

72.9
41.7
56.2
81.2

54.2
70.8
43.7
77.1

50.0
60,4
66.7
97.9

70.8
66.7
75.0
58.3

25.7
73.6
56.3
67.4

29.8
88.2
43,7
59.7

64.6
76.4
39.6
73.6

58.3
66.0
61.6
77.fi

44.6
76.0
50.3
69.6

195!...
19514...
'955...
956..*

54.2
43.7
95. 8
50.0

52.1
64.6
75.0
41.7

85*4
47.9
87.5
27.1

72.9
60.4
87, S
87.5

62,5
83.3
77.1
25.0

33.3
77.1
85,4
35.4

87,5
66.7
79.2
75.0

33.3
50.0
64.6
68.7

12.5
62.5
83.3
62.5

20.8
50.0
81.2
58.3

16.7
87.5
66,7
52*1

16.7
85.4
68.7
56.2

63,9
52.1
86.1
39.6

S6.2
73.6
83,3
49.3

44.4
59.7
75.7
68.7

18.1
74.3

72. a

55. S

45.7
64.9
79.3
53,3

957...
958,.*
i959...
I960.*.

18.7
14.6
64.6
70.8

64*6
6*2
77.1
20*8

62*5
20*8
72.9
58.3

29,2
41,7
87.5
39.6

62.5
85.4
91.7
75,0

66.7
95*8
66.7
5U.2

66.7
93.7
70.8
39.6

47.9
91.7
37,5
45,8

12.5
79.2
41.7
25.0

8.3
72.9
25.0
33,3

0.0
95.8
50.0
27,1

25.0
47.9
95*8
20,8

48.6
13.9
71,5
50.0

52.8
74.3
62.0
56.3

42.4
88.2
50.0
36.8

11.1
72*
56*
£7*

36.7
62.1
65*1
42,5

1961...
1962*.*
1963,.*
1964,.,

56.2
25.0
79.2
70.8

50.0
87.5
66.7
77.1

62.5
87.5
83.3
66.7

70.8
75.0
54.2
87,5

72.9
64.6
83.3
66.7

91.7
66*7
75.0
66.7

77.1
52.1
72.9
81.2

72,9
56.3
68.7
75,0

54*2
83,3
58,3
45.8

87.5
29.2
64.6
79.2

83,3
66.7
50*0
79.2

75,0
35*4
77.1
87.5

56.2
66.7
76.4
71.5

78.5
68.8
70.8
73.6

68.1
64.6
66.6
67.3

81.
44.
63,
B2.0

71.2
61.1
69.4
73,6

1965,..*
1966«.«
1967»»*
I960,.,,

79,2
70.8
29.2
41.7

70.8
70.8
20. B
70.8

77.1
91*7
43*7
72*9

56.2
72.9
52.1
43.8

70.8
62.5
16*7
64.6

91.7
75*0
50.0
72.9

81.2
50.0
47,9
58.3

75.0
75.0
75.0
58.3

54.2
43.7
41.7
68.8

79.2
72.9
56,2
58.3

83.3
56*2
87.5
70.8

87.5
50.0
83.3
56.2

75.7
77.8
31.2
61.8

72.9
70.1
39*6
60.4

70.1
56.2
54*9
61.8

83,3
59,7
75,7
61*8

75.5
66,0
50.3
61*4

1969,,,
1970***

_-

047. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION— 24 INDUSTRIES 1
(PERCENT R I S I N G OVER (. -MONTH SPANS)
„
83.3
41,7

85.4
22.9

91 *7
16.7

8.3

83.3
29,2

73|&

74.3

77.8
40.3

*>0»3
18.1

5U6

54.2
93.7
37*5
91.7

52.1
95.8
37,5
100.0

64.6
95.8
37.5
100.0

83.3
87.5
58.3
95.8

83*3
62,5
77,1
91.7

91.7
64.6
64.6
87,5

16,0
98.6
48.6
66.0

39.6
98,6
36*1
73.6

57.0
95.1
37.5
97.2

86. 1
71.5
66.7
91,7

49.7
91.0
47.2
82,1

41.7
83.3
95.8

20.8
79.2
100.0

16.7
79,2
89,6

16.7
87.5
91,7

4.2
91.7
87.5

8.3
95,8
83,3
50*0

14.6
100.0
70.8
52. 1

69.4
40.3
97.2
61. 1

61,1
75.0
93.0
63.9

18.1
82.0
93,8
70. 1

9*0
95.8
80*5
52, 1

39*4
73,3
91,1

35*4
95,8

22.9
100*0

4,2
95.8
66.7
20.8

4.2
100.0
60.4
16.7

2.1
95.8
60.4
12.5

0.0
91,7
62,5
20,8

47.2
21.5
93. 1
73.6

54.9
86.1
79,9
48,6

11,6
98.6

2.1
95.8
61 * 1
16.7

29.0
75,5
72,0
41,3

62.5
75,0

45.8
81.2

66^7

•56 ! 2

25.0

100.0
31.2
50.0

41.7
100*0
35.4
75.0

52.1
95.8
41,7
95.8

60*4
50.0
95.8

75.0
70. B
87,5

66*7
70.8
95.8

52*1
45*8

62,5
70,8

66.7
91.7

1948...

75.0

79.2

66*7

1949.**
1950.**
1951...
1952...

12.5
100.0
62.5
66.7

12.5
100*0
45.8
62.5

22*9
95.8
37.5
68.7

1953.**
1934.**
1955. ••
1956* « .

79.2
23.0
95.8
70. 8

66.7
4S«8
100.0

1957...
1953..*

39.6
8.3

50*0
10.4

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1960. ••

70.8

83.3

66.7

58.3

50.0

37,5

37.5

6.3
100.0
50*0
20*8

1961..*
1962...
1963. **
1964...

52.1
83.3
83.3
91,7

66,7
79.2
91.7
95. B

87.5
70*8
95.8
95.8

93.7
91.7
91.7
91.7

91.7
77.1
91.7
87.5

87,5
83,3
83*3
89.6

95. 8
66.7
91.7
70,8

91.7
77.1
77.1
83.3

91.7
60*4
79*2
95,8

87,5
47.9
77,1
83*3

87.5
72.9
83.3
91.7

95,6
62.5
85.4
91.7

68.8
77,8
90.3
94.4

91,0
84.0
88*9
89.6

93.1
66*1
82.7
83.3

90.3
61*1

a 1.9
ft8.9

85.8
72,7
85.9
89.1

1965...
1966.. •
1967.. >
1968.. «

83,3
95.8
45.8
75.0

85,4
91.7
29.2
83.3

87.5
79.2
27.1
70.8

83.3
75,0
29.2
87.5

83.3
79.2
41.7
70.8

79.2
66,7
41.7
79,2

87.5
75.0
S4.2
75.0

91.7
66.7
66.7
75.0

87,5
66,7
75,0
70,8

91,7
70.8
75.0
66.7

93,7
45.8
75,0
70.8

100*0
37.5
83.3
79,2

85.4
88.9
34.0
76.4

81.9
73,6
37.5
79,2

88.9
69.5
65.3
73.6

«!>,!
SU4
77,8
72,2

87.8
70,6
53.7
75.3

26*.U

1969 * * < >
1970*. •
1
glneo
K

Irnjt rhewn hora, thin -;«rioo hao fcoen rovieofl tegiiming July 1967.
Thoco Gorioo eentain ueattomi miner rovlolano and include 1947 data not previously shown.

110



(MAY 1970)

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Trough

Cycle

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861.
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857
October 1860 .
April 1865
June 1869
.October 1873
March 1882. .

May 1885
April 1888
May. 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

(X)
18
8
32
I
B
65

30
22
46
18
34
36

(X)
48
30
78
36
99

40
54
50
52
101

March 1887.
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895 .
June 1899
September 1902

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921

-May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918*
January 1920
.May 1923

23
13
24
23
7

is

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924

-October 1926
-August 1929
.May 1937
February 1945
.November 1948
July 1953 .

14
13
43
13
8
1
1

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
^8

41
34
93
93
Z5
_56

July 1957
.May 1960

13
"5
9

35
25
(X)

58
44
34

48
34
(X)

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 .
4 cycles, 1945-1961..

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1961..
3 cycles, 1945-1961..

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949 .

.

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

.

.

(X)

149
54
46

2
3

*46
48
642

5

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include.the wartime expansions.

^5 cycles, 1857-1960:
9 cycles, 1920-1960.

2

3
4
4

cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.

5

7 cycles, 1920-1960.
^ cycles, 1945-1960.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




Ill




INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series/ following this index)

200 GNP in current dollars
fNP in KKft Hnllar^

*

• • 9,21,38
,9,21,38,56
9
9
9

5,65,71
5,65,71,87
5,65
5,65
5,65

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.

'69
'69
'69
July '69
July '69

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

July '69
July '69
'69
'69

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69

Oct.

'69

A2. National and Personal Income

227.

10
10
10
Disposable personal income, current dol
Disposable personal income, constant dol ... 10
Per capita disposable personal income,
10
current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
10

5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65

Aug.
Aug.

5,65

Aug.

5,65

Aug.

'69
'69

Oct.

'69

A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures

230.
231.
2??
233.
234

Tables

B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade

217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

224.
225.
226,

Charts

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
90^

Current issue
(page numbers)

11
Total, current dollars
11
Total, constant dollars
11
Durable foods current dollars
Durable goods, exc, autos, current dollars. . . 11
11
Automobiles current dollars

5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
"69
'69
'69
'69

12
12
12
12
12
12,26

5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66

5,66,74

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

13,47
13,49
13,49

5,67
5,67
5,67

Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69

14
14
14,53
14

5,67
5,67

Aug.
Aug.
Dec.
Dec.

11
1
1

9,21,38
9,21,38,56
"21,38,63
21,38
21
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .
22,38
*56 Manufacturing and trade sales
22
22,38

*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
*12 Index of net business formation ...»
13 New business incorporations

A5. Foreign Trade

253 Imports of goods and services
A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260. Federal, State, and local governments
262. Federal Government
264. National defense
266. State and local governments
A7. Final Sales and Inventories

271. Change in business inventories, durable
275. Change in business inventories,
A8. National Income Components

286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj
288 Net interest
A9. Saving

290. Gross saving, private and government
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
fnventory valuation adjustment.
296. Capital consumption allowances

May '69
May '69
May '69

6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72

11.
24.
9,
7.
*29.

New capital appropriations, manufacturing. 24
24
New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
24
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
24
Private nonfarm housing starts
24,36
New bldg. permits, private housing

6,72
6,72
6,73
6,73
6,73

96.
97.
*61.
69.

Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.':
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing .
Business expend., new plant and equip • • •
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures

5,67,85
5,67

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69

15

5,67

15
15

Dec.

'69

Oct.

5,67
5,67

Dec.
Dec.

'69
'69

'69
'69

15

5,67

Dec.

'69

Oct.

'69

16
16
16
16
16

5,67
5,67
5,67
5,68
5,68

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

17
17

5,68
5,68

Dec.
Dec.

'69
'69

Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69

17
17
17

5,68
5,68
5,68

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.

'69
'69
'69

Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
Oct., '69

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl. Employment and Unemployment

18,36
18
18
*5. Initial claims, State unemptoy. insurance . . . 18,36
18

6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69

Oct.
Mar.
Oct.
Mar.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

Aug.

19
19
19
19,38
19
20,38
20
20
20,39

6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70

Mar.
Oct.
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Mar.

"69
'69
!
70
'69
'70
'70
'69
'70
'69

June '69

49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46 Help*wanted advertising
48.' Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Avg. .weekly insured unemploy. rate

*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators,




'68
June '69
Aug. '68
June ( 69
Aug. '68

Aug.
Aug.

'68#

'68

June '69

Apr . ' 69
Apr. '69

'6S#

7,66,74

69
May '70
'70
'70
•Feb. '70

Oct.
Feb.

'69
'69

Sep.

'68

May '70
Apr. '70

Sep.
Feb.
Sep.

'68
'69
'68

'69
June '69
July '69

Apr. '69
May '69
July '68

Mar.
Feb.

July '69
'69
'70

Mar.
Nov.

7,75,86

June '69
June '69

June '69
June '69

7,75
7,75

Feb.

July '69
'70

Nov.

'69

Aug.

7,75

117
66
*72.
*67.
118.

May '68
June '68

Sep.

29
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
29,55
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations. ..... .... 29
29,39

116 Coroorate bond vields

'68

'70

7,75
7,75
7,75

Prop rP^Pfl/P^

Sep.

Feb.

28
28
28,37

QO

Feb. '70
Apr. '70
Feb. '70

7,73

7,75
7,75
7,75

110 Total private borrowing
14 Liabilities of business failures
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans

'68

25

28,37
28,37,64
28,37

*113. Change in consumer installment debt

Sep.

'68

7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74

98. Change in money supply and time deposits

'68

'70

'68

Vendor performance, slower deliveries ... 27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27,39
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .
27
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods .

B6. Money and Credit

Sep.

Apr.

Nov.

32,
25.
*71.
65.

'69

Oct.
Oct.

'70
'70
'70

Sep.

7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74

15 Profits per dollar of sales mfg

Feb.
Feb.
Apr.

'70
'70
'70

12,26
Change in bus. inventories, all indus
26,37
Change in mfg. and trade inventories
26
Purchased materials, higher inventories . .
Change in materials, supplies inventories . 26
Buying policy, production materials — . 26

22. Ratio, profits to income originating,

'69
'69
'68
July '68
July '68
Feb. '69
July '68

Oct.
Oct.
Nov.

Apr.
Feb.
Apr.

245.
*31.
37.
20.
26.

*23 Industrial materials prices
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks

'69
'69
'70
July '69
July '69
May '70
July '69
May '70
Dec.
Dec.
Apr.

25
6,73
25
6,73
25,39,40 7,73,79

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment

85. Prices, Costs, and Profits
'69
'69
'69
'69

6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71

23,36
23
23,36
23
23,36
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .

A4. Gross Privote Domestic Investment

240.. Gross private domestic investment, total

6,65.71
'6,65,71,87
6,71,99

Aug.

Feb.
Apr.

Feb. '70
Apr. '70

Apr.

30
30
30
30,37

7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76

Oct.
Oct.
Mar.

30
31
31
31

7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76

Feb.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.

'70
'70
'69
'70

32
32
32
32

7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77

Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.

'70
'70
'70
'70

7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77

'70
May '70
Feb. '70
Feb. '70
Mar. '70

6,78

Sep.

6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78

Mar. '70
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Sep. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69

32
Municipal bond yields
33
Consumer installment debt
33,39
Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . .
33,39
Bank rates on short-term bus, loans
33
Mortgage yields, residential

'69.

'69
May '70

Mar.

July '68
'69
'68

July '68
'68

July '64
July '64
July '64

July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64

July '64

B7. Composite Indexes

34
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
34
820. 5 coincident indicators
34
830, 6 lagging indicators
35
813 Marginal employment adjustments
35
814. Capital investment commitments
35
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
35
816. Profitability
35

'69

'68

Aug. »ea

Nov.

'68

Sep. '69
Nov. '68
Nov. '68

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

113

Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shawn in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Charts

Tables

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

Current issiuj
(page numbers)

Series titles {shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Charts

Tables

Series
Historical
, data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS--Con.

Cl. Aggregate Series

D4. Price Movements

61. Bus. expend, rcew plant and equip
410. Manufacturers' sales, total
412. Mfrs.' inventoties book value

25,39,40 73,79
41
79
79
41
41
79
79
41

416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity

420. Household income compared to year ago — 42
425. Probability of change, household income ... 42
42
42

435. Index of consumer sentiment

79
79
79
79

'70
'70
'70
'70
'70

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68
'68

Mar. '69
Apr. '70

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68

Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.

781
782 •
783
784

Consumer price index
Consumer price index
Consumer price index
Consumer price index

all items.
food
commodities
services

54,62
54
54
54

53
750. Wholesale price index, all commodities . . .
29,35

751. Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. . 55
53
752. Wholesale price index, farm products

8,i&
86
86
86

May
May
May
May

8,H6
86/75
«6
86

June
Juno
Juno
Juno

'69
'69
'69
'69
' 69
'69
'69
'69

Kay
May
Kay
May
Juno
Juno
June
June

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes

D440.
0442.
D444.
D446.

New orders, manufacturing
Net profits, manufacturing and trade
Net sales, manufacturing and trade
Number of employees, mfg. and trade

43
43
43
43

SO
80
80
80

Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.

'69 Nov.
'69 Nov.
'69 Nov.
'69 Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68

D450.
D460.
D462.
D464.
0466.

Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, mfg. and trade
Selling prices manufacturing
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Selling prices, retail trade

44
44
44
44
44

ao
80
ao
60
80

Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.

'69 Nov.
'69 Nov.
'69 Nov.
'69 Nov.
'69 Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68
'68

45
45
45

81
81
81

Apr. '70 Nov. '68
Feb. '69 Nov. '68
Feb. '69 Nov. '68

D61. Bus. expend,, now plant and equip
D480. Freight carloadings
480. Change in freight cartoadings

D1. Foreign Trod*!

*

46
46

8,82
8,82

May '69
May '69

46
46
•*. 46

8,82
8,82
8,82

Feb. '70 Aug. '68#
Apr. '69
May '69
May '69

47
520. U.S. bal. of pmts,, liquidity bal. basis
522. U.S. bal. of pmts., official settlements
47
basis
525. Net capital movements, liquidity bal, basis. . 47
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
47
basis

8,83

July '69

May '69

S, 83
83

July '69
July '69

May '69
May '69

506. Export orders, ditr. goods exc. motor
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512 General imoorts ( < > » « » • . . . *

May '69
May '69

D2. Balance of Payments and Components

530 Liquid liabilities to foreigners
.
532. Liquid and n on liquid liabilities to foreign
official iiEcncio'5
534 U S official reseive assets
252 Exoorts of floods li/id services
^3fi MprrlnnHi^p pynrr't^ AfiiiKtpfl

540. Investment income1, military sales, and
541, Foreigners' investment income, military
expend and services, imports
543, Income on foreign investments in U.S

549. Payments, transportation and services
561. U.S. direct investments abroad
560. Foreign direct investments in U.S. . .
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570, Govt. grants and capital transactions
575. Banking and other capital transactions

114

57

854. Ratio, perse rial saving to disposable
personal income « * • . * »
855. Ratio, nona(»ricutturat job openings

a, 88

Fob, '69
Sep. '68

Apr. '70

Nov. '611

58

8,88

July '69

July '68

8,88

Fob. '70
Aug. '69
Aug. '69

June '6!!
Juno '68

859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. . 38
58
857. Vacancy ratt; total rental housing

e,sa
8,88

Aug. '69 Juno '68
Fob. '7Q

01. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg .... 59
59
06. New orders, durable goods industries
59
Oil. New capital appropriations mfg

89, 9a
89,92
89
90
90,93
90,94
90,94

Nov.
Apr.
3eo.
*'eb.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.

'69
'70
'69
'70
'69 May '69
'69 Apr, '69
'69 Juno '69

041. Employees on nonagri. payrolls

91,95
91, 9S
91,96
91,97

Nov.
May
June
Nov.

'69
'70
'69 Juno '69
'69

E3. Diffusion Indexes

59
59
59
023. Industrial materials prices
59
D5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. .

058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods

July '69

May '69

83
83
83
83

July
July
July
July

83
83

July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69

49

83

July '69

83
84
84

July '69
July '69
July '69

May '69
May '69
May '69

50
50
50
50
50
50

84
84
84
84
84
84

July
July
July
July
July
July

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

May
May
May
May
May
May

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

51
51
51
51
51
51

84
84
84
84
84
84

July
July
July
July
July
July

'69 May
'69 May
'69 May
'69 May
'69
'69 May

'69
'69
'69
'69

8,85
8,85
8,85
8,67,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85

July
July
July
Dec.
Oct.
Get.
Dec.

'69 July '68#
'69 July '68# F3. Stock Price Indexes
'69 July '68#
19. United States .
"69 Oct. '69*
143 Canada
'69
142 United Kingdom
'69
146. France
„
'69 Sep."'68# 145. West Germany . „

—

60
60
60
60

May '69

49
50
50

48
48
13,49
13,49
49
49

'69 May '69
'69 May '69
'69 May '69
'69 May '69

E5. Rqtes of Chonge
200 GNP in current dollars * • •

*»

61

Bee.
Doe.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Kar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.

61
205. GNP in constant dollars
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators. 61
61
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments

52 Personal income
55. Index of whslo. prices, indus. commodities
781 Index of consumer prices all items

61
61
61
61
61

'69
'69
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70

Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
Auf*.

'69
'69
'6S
'6S#

July '68
Nev. '6S
Juno '69
May '69

F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

53
53

Dec. '69

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.




853, Ratio, prod, of bus, equip, to consumer

Boo. '69
May '70
Apr, '70

8,86

a, si!

57

83

48

Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . .52
Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . .52
Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 52
14,53
National defense purchases
53
Defense Dept. obltfations, total
53
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries. . . .53

625 Military contract awards in U,S

850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. . . 37
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . 57
852, Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,

May '69
May '69

83

D3. Federal Government Activities

600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
647.

'69

E2. Analytical Ratios

July '69
July '69

S3

13,47

1

9,21,38, 3( 6,65,71,87 Dee. '69 Oct.
56
87
56
5,87

205. Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
20S. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)

58
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . 58
856, Real avg, hourly earnings, prod, workers . . 58

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS

500 Merchandise trace balance

El. Actuol ond Potential GNP

'69

Fl. Consumer Price? Indexes
781. United States

133.
132.
135.
136.
138.
137.

F2. Industrial Production Indexes

47.
123
122
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.

54,62
62
62
62
62
62
62

Canada
United Kingdon
West Germany,,
France
Japan
Italy
United States
Canada
United Kin&dom •
France
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy

148. Japan
147. Italy

....

98
93
98
98
90
98
98

May '69
May '69
Apr. '70
Apr. '70
Apr. '70
Apr. '70
Apr. '70
Apr. '70

21,38,63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63

99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99

Apr.
Boa.
Dee.
Dos.
Bee.
Deo.
Dee.
Dec.

'70 ffov. '68
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

28,37,64
64
64
64
64
64
64

100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.

'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70

May '69

Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section 8 preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.

244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)

245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5.D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). •Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6)

A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). • Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -• Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q), -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)

264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6.D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Depart*
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
274. Final sates, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). •- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). - -Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
292. Personal saving (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)

233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)

294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)

234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)

296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate arid noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)

298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). - Department of
(A4)
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total n on residential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)

242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)




(A9)

B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). • Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
4. Nonagriculhiral placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)

*5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). •- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

(B3, 88, E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). •- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, B8)
11. Newty approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board (B3.E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(83, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). •• Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by'Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(86)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, alt manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Office of Business Economics

Department of Commerce.
(85, B8)

*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost •- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5, B8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, BB, E3, E4, f 3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). - Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). - National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83, 68)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, 88)
Continued on reverse

115

Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (NT). •• Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (M). - Institute of Life Insurance;
Federal Nationai Mortgage Association; Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census.
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
<B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau cf tha Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964}
(BB)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M), -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bueau of the Census
(Bl)
"41, Number of employees w nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persws engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 1'i weeks and over (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Laboi Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
.(Bl, 68)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -• Department of Labor, Manpower Administration
(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). - National
Industrial Conference Etoard
(Bl)
*47 Index of industrial production (M), - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8r E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Laaor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
49.Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). --Department of
Labor, Manpower Admin strati on; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
(Bl)
*52. Personal income (M). -» Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8, E5)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
*54. Sales of retail stores (
of the Census

• Department of Commerce, Bureau
(B2, 88, E3, E4, E5)

55. Index of wholesale price:;, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, E5)
*56, Manufacturing and trade sales (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census

(B2, B8)

57. Final sales (series 200 tntaus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58,, Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). -» Department of Labor, Bureau ol Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61, Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(63, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing - ratio, Index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index ol industrial production, manufacturing
(M). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board ,of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce
Bureau of the Census
(54)
66. Consumer Installment debt (EOM). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
•67. Bank rates on short-term (business loans, 35 cities (Q). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)

116




68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations - ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
•
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, week y reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

(B6)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (83)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federa' Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M), - First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department(B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- "he Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
811. Twelve leading indicators - composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1T 2,3, and 5) (M). - Department of Corrmerce,
Bureau of the Census
(87)
814. Capital investment commitments - leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing -- leading comirasite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). - Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
817. Sensitive financial (tows -- leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.

410. Manufacturers1 sales, total value (Q). - Department of Corr
merce Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). •- Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of Ihe Census and Office of Busi
ness Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). •• Department of Commerce, Off ice
of Business Economics
{Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (EOQ).» Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -* Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q).
Survey Research Center

University of Michigan,
(Cl)

D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -* Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission fromjhe source.)
(CZ)
0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. Trios series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -• Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dim and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced wish*
out written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads
(CZ)
480. Change in freitfit carloadings (Q). -- Association of American
railroads
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers undeir
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See ire
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q).--See in section A.

U.S. balance of payments

264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q).--See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)

(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(01)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
atl foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)

854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)

565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)

Titles and Sources of Series

855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M).-- Department of Labor
Manpower Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics; ana
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)

570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments {Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)

856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)

600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(03)

858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)

601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q). •• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricul*
tural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)

(D3)

616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, 05, D6, Oil, 019, 023, D41, D47, 054, D58, 061,
and section C for 0440, D442, 0444, D446, 0450, 0460, 0462, 0464,
0466, and 0480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)

F International Comparisons

530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)

19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.

532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)

648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(03)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). ••- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)

534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)

47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). •Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)

536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q), -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)

543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(DZ)

546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -•
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)




752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (1YI). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
(D4, E5, Fl)

122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)

Department of Labor,
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). - Stallstiscries Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
de la Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)

784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)

127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)

E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (K). See in section B,
52. Personal income (M). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).

See in section D.

820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -• Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)

132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (IYJ). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statist)sches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).
Statistics (Ottawa)

Dominion Bureau of

145. West Germany, index of stock prices (Iff).
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)

(F3)

Statistisches
(F3)

146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economioues (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.

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