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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
This report was prepared in the
notnlc Resetrd* and Analysis Division und«r file direction of M'lm
Shkkb, Chief. Tictaktl stttf and
tlielr re^mfblitkt for the puMict«
ion if0<—
Fellks Tamm — CorapwtMtei of.
business cycle
Allan H.
projects,
Barry A. leckm Speciicntions
tor comfiuter processing*
Batty K Tuntall— Colbetkm and
compilation of basic data,
Editorial supervision is provided by
Gerakline Cera&ky of the Administrative and Publication Services Division,
Stuart. I. Freamtis is responsible for
pufolkttiofs design,
The eoopmtioa of
mewt and private ftgencie^ which provide data is gratefully acknowledged.
The agencies furnishing data mm indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this
report,
Subscription £*rk$ is $6 a year (11-50
additional for foreign mailing), Single
are €0 ©eats,
Airmail delivery k available at an
additional charge* For information
about domestic or foreign air mti
delivery, write to the Superintendent
of Documents (adtess below), «nclosing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent' of Documents. Send to
US. Government Printlns Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402S or to any
U.S. !>®pijrt«fnt of Coeiraeree Field
Office,




BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician

PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.




May 7966
DATA THROUGH APRIl
Series ESI No. 66-5

New Features and Changes for This Issue
Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis
Punch Card File of Business Cycle Series

Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2

iii
iv
iv

.

1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6

HM^D© [o)cl}fe}
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series

TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE

3.
2.
4.
5.

Distribution of "Highs11 for Current and Comparative Periods _ _
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components

ABOUT THE COVER—

Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.

8
10
24

38
39
42
46

CONTINUED




CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
.
TABLE 7, Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates

58
62
63

Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 _______________ _._____ _ _ _ 65
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators ________________________________ 66
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series__________________________________- ___ 67
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series ___________________________________________ 70
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961_________________________________ _ „ 71
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series _____________ . ________ 72

Series Finding Guide _________________________________ „ ____ _ _ _ _ _ _

u

73

n A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.

Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. For the series on Federal cash receipts from the
public (series 83), an additive seasonal adjustment has
been used, starting January 1965, to avoid exaggerating
the effects of the accelerated corporate tax payments
and graduated personal income tax withholding programs.
The new seasonal factors are based upon data for the
period I960 to February 1965. Because of the effects of
these changes in the tax laws and the use of the new
method of seasonal adjustment, the published figures may
be subject to more than the usual margin of error. The
additive seasonal adjustment factors are shown from
May 1965 through June 1966 in appendix D.
2. Monthly seasonally adjusted data on Federal cash
receipts and payments (series 82, 83, and 84) have been
adjusted to agree with the latest Bureau of the Budget
seasonal adjustment of quarterly data for these series.
3. The series on price per unit of labor cost
(series 17) has been revised for the period beginning
October 1965 because of a new seasonal adjustment.
4. The series on labor cost per unit of output
(series 62) has been revised for the period beginning
January 1966 because of a new seasonal adjustment.
5. Data on consumer installment credit (series 66
and 113) have been revised for the period beginning
July 1963. This revision is based on the source agency's
adjustment of the commercial bank segments of these data
to new benchmark data (from call reports for June and
December, 1 6 , and June 1965).
94
6. Appendix F includes historical data for series
82, 83, and 84.

The June issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on June 21.




111

i^rD




Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.

A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with .he first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.

Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.

IV

Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.

tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
t>

NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.

D>

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators,—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.

\>

NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac


Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
O

Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2),—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional

U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
^

Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.

£>

Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.

In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.

oralTOMON©ream
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.

Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring but the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how


ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving,
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.

MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for ,MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally

adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production,
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1

©IF
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch, 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).




Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components

which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter 4T>" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.



Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling, (In counting the number of components rising, a uo" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.

In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.

Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, tot&i
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).



Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.

Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.

Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.

Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.

CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series

See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted,
("12" = December)

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("11" = second quarter)

Broken Hne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.

Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series, Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans/

Scale shows percent of components rising.

Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.

* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted Wz, 2, or
2*/2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.




Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)

Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.

Section ONE

charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT

INDICATORS

Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS




Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS

Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries

TABLE

W^

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS

Average percent change2

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

1953 to Apr. '65 Apr. '65
to date to date
1965
(with
(without (without
sign)5
sign)3
sign)4

Apr.
1966

Mar.
1966

Feb.
1966

Jan.
1966

Current percent change2

Mar.
to
Apr.
1966

Jan.
to
Feb.
1966

Feb.
to
Mar.
1966

+0.2
-2.0
+5.3
0.0

+4.5

0.0
-0.2
+6.2 (NA)
-1.8 -11.4
+9.1 (NA)
-7.5
+12.3

+1.6
+16.9
+3.7
-3.1
-1.1 + 3.5

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

Hours
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
Per 100 empl ..
2 Accession rate manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries — Thous
Per 100 empl..
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing . . . .
4 Temporary layoff all industries. . . . Thous
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
do
unemployment insurance .
Bil. dol
6. New orders, durable goods Indus
do
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
Mil. sq, ft
9. Construction contracts, commercial
floor space . .
and industrial.
Bil. dol
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
6
... .do
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
Ann. rate,
1, Private nonfarm housing starts
thous
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
1957-59-100..
do
38 Index of net business formation
Number
13. New business incorporations
Mil, dol
14 Liabilities of business failures
No. per week..
15 Large business failures
Ann. rate,
16 Corporate profits after taxes6.
bil. dol
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg
1957-59-100..
Cents
18 Profits per dbl of sales mfg
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
6
Percent
corporate all industries .
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
1941-43-10...
Ann. rate,
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries6'7
bil. dol.... .
31 Change in book value, manufacturing
7
do
and trade inventories
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven7
do
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled 7orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial materials prices*. ..

41.5
4.9
570
1.1
11
1

41.6
r4.8
600
1.1
106

r41.5
P5.1
r589
pl.O
93

P41.5
(NA)
P522
(NA)
100

+0.1
+2.6

1.8
9.2
17.1

0.2
5.0
2.8
6.8
14.9

0.5
4.8

-0.1

+3.1
-0.4

222

219

182

179

5.0

5.3

+2.1

23.58
4.4-5

r23.74
1-4.58

r24.63
r4.53

P23.87
P4.78

3.8
4.2

2.6
2.8

+0.7
+1.4

+1.4
+0.7
+2.9

60.04.
5.44

67.48
r5.49
(NA)

69.09
P5.61

9.3
4.7
10.4

8.0
3.2
3.7

+1.2
+1.2
+3.7

+12.4
+0.9
(NA)

1,585
111.4
108.7
17,677
111.67

rl,349
105.1
109.6
17,868
94.59

rl,530
rlH.l
109.2
17,305
98.73

pi, 474
p!03.8
(NA)
(NA)
106.93

7.2
3.6
0.8
2.5
18.7

7,0
4.3
0.8
2.7
24.0

0.0
+0.1
+0.3
+0.5
-7.2

-3.7
-14.9 +13.4
+8.6 -9.0
-5.7
(NA)
+0.8
-0.4
+1.1 -.3.2 (NA)
-4.4 -6.3
+15.3

37

36

36

37

12.3

13.4

-2.4

+2.7

0.0

-2.8

1-105! 4

P48.4
r!05.5
(NA)

r!05.7

p!05.4

5.6
0.6
6.0

3.2
0.5
1.1

+3.2
+0.2
+1.1

+5.4
+0.1
(M)

+0.2

-0.3

4.3

1.5

+1.5

(NA)

88.88

91.60

2.5

2.1

+0.4

-0.7

-4.1

+3.1

r+8.1

2.3

1.9

+0.6

-2.0

+9.2

(NA)

3.6

4.2

+0.1

(NA)

+0.9

1+1.2

1.5

1.3

-0.4

+0.3

-0.1.

(NA)

48

46

53

51

6.5

6.3

-1.1

-4.2

+15.2

-3.8

do

68

67

68

69

5.3

2.3

+0.3

-1.5

+1.5

+1.5

do

74

85

86

82

7.5

5.6

+1.3

+14.9

+1.2

-4.7

+1.27
120.5

r+1.31
122.9

r+1.46
123.5

p+1.17
121.5

0.48
1.3

0.26
1.0

+0.03
+0.3

+0.04
+2.0

+0.15 -0.29
+0.5 -1.6

r 62, 501 r62,88l
69,072
69,079
3.8
3.7
1.9
1.9

p62,887
69,317
3.7
1.8

0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4

0.4
0.4
2.9
5.6

+0.4
+0.3
+2.1
+2.5

+0.6
-0.3
+7.5
0.0

+0.6
0.0
0.0 +0.4
-2.7 +2.6
0.0 +5.3

percent

Bil. dol
1957-59-100

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
93.32

92.69

IH-1.1

(NA)

+2.4
+2.2

(NA)
(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

41. Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagricultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State

Thous

do
Percent
do

. . do..
46. Help-wanted advertising
1957-59-100..
do
47. Industrial production
6
Ann. rate,
50 GNP in 1958 dollars
bil. dol
do
49 GNP in current dollars 6
6
do
57. Final sales
do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y. . . .
do
52 Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do
Mil. dol
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59=100..




62,148
69,286
4.0
1.9

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1

4.2

3.7

+3.1

0.0

+11.5

+8.7

184r!50.2

191
rl51.6

201
r!53.0

p!89
P153.4

3.0
1.0

3.7
0.8

+2.4
+0.7

+3.8
+0.9

+5.2
+0.9

-6.0
+0.3

1.2
1.5
1.3

1.6
2.2
2.1

+1.6
+2.2
+2.1

+1.5
+2.4
+2.7

3,397.1 p3, 390.1
P563.1
r56l.4
151.2
plSl.3
r25,536 P 25,227

1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0

2.0
0.8
0.7
1.1

+1.2
+0.7
+0.7
+0.8

+2,1
+0.9
+1.4
+1.0

+4.1
+0.7
+0.9
+1.1

-0.2
+0.3
+0.1
-1.2

T510A.3

0.?

0.?

4-0. ?

4-0. /

4=0.5

+0.1

r633.6
r713.9
705.8
3,198.1
r552.5
147.9
25,023

3,263.9
r557.4
149.9
r25,263

103. A

103.8

10A.O

bed

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Jan.
1966

Feb.
1966

Average percent change2

Mar.
1966

Apr.
1966

1953 to Apr. '65
to date
1965
(without (without
signp
sign) *

Current percent change 2

Apr. '65
to date
(with
sign)5

Jan.
to
Feb.
1966

Feb.
to
Mar.
1966

Mar.
to
Apr.
1966

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP6
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*

Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59-100 ..

98*.9

do
Bil. dol

68^6

do
Mil. dol

r 67, 920

23.5

a57.20
r99.4
(NA)
69.0
23.6

r68,458

Percent

r99.5

plOO.l

3.2
0.6

4.3
0.6

+4.3
+0.1

+3.3
+0.5

+0.1

+0.6

p69.7

(NA)

0.8
0.5

0.1
0.8

+0.1
+0.8

(NA)
+0.6

+1.0

(NA)

P23.8
69,107

(NA)
(NA)

0.6
0.8

0.7
1.0

+0.6
+1.0

+0.4
+0.8

+0.8
+0.9

(NA)
(NA)

2.0

3.6

+3.6

4.4
3.9
4.3

9.0
8.9

+1.3
+1.6

5.55

+5.3

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do

82 Federal cash payments to public
83. Federal cash receipts from public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95. Balance, Federal income and product
account 6'7
90. Defense Dept oblig procurement
91
92
99.
93.
85

Defense Dept obligations total
Military contract awards in U S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*7
Change in money supply 7

rH6.9
rl20.6
r-26.3

rl42.5
r!33.0
r-9.5

r!53.5
r!38.6
rvH.9

p!38.9
P162.5
p+23^6

Mil dol

1,521

Pf0.3
1,420

1,947

(MA)

27.4

20.6

do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent

5,100
2,712

(NA)
(NA)
P3.06
P-263

13.9
24.5
22,5

7.3
10j.3

+2.7
-1.0
+0.8

.

do

98. Change in money supply and time
deposits 7.
110 Total private borrowing 6
Il
l
112
113.
114
115
116
117

do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Corporate gross savings 6
Ann. rate,
Change business loans 7
bil. dol .....
do
Change consumer installment debt 7 . . .
Treasury bill rate*
Percent
Treasury bond yields *
< . ... do
do
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*

1 18 Mortgage yi el ds *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance
89! U.S. balance of payments 6 ' 7 :
a Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis6
81. Consumer prices
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.9

do
Mil. dol
do
do
do
..... do
1957-59-100 . .
do
.
Bil. dol
do

2.5

12.6

3.3

-3.0

+7.7
+4-2

-9.5
+17.2
+38.5

+0.4

+10.3
+16.8

-1.2

+2.1

+6.1

-6.6

+37.1

(NA)

+1.5
-4.3

+13.5

(NA)
(NA)
-4.7
-17

-5.4

-44

-107

5,879
2,357
r3.21
r-246

+7.20

-2.88

+8.52

P+13.44

3.11

9.36

+0.62 -10.08 +11.40 +4.92

+7.68

+1.56

+7.56

P+14.64

2.52

5.11

+0.47

-6.12

+2.4
+1.6

+3.2
+2.4

+0.02
-0.10

-7.02
-0.70

3.AO

5,179
2,596
r3.04

p72,436
p57,372
+14.23
r+7.16
4.60
4.43
4.92
3.52
5.70

2,248.6
1,935.5
+313.1
i. .

+7.21
r+6.46
4.67
4.61
5.07
3.64
(NA)

2,334.8
1,992.9
+341.9

1 17
1 .

r!52

r!57

63.80

11.5

4.3

+8.87
+7.79
4.63
4.63
5.28
3.72
6.00

2,594.4
2,072.7
+521.7

p+6.60
(NA)
4.61
4.55
5.24
3.56
(NA)
2,331.2
(NA)
(NA)

r65.11

1.39
0.87

(NA)

112.6
(NA)
p67.74

45

9.9
1.6
3.64
0.87

-13

-10.6
-63

2.1
11
.
1.5
2.0

+1.4
+0.8
+1.3
+1.0

+1.5
+4.1
+3.0
+3.4

0.1
3.8
3.0

0.5
3.9
5.2
105.8

+0.5
+1.3
-2.3

(NA)
+3.8
+3.0

366
809

-271
-168

0.3
4.1
1.6
6.6

+0.5
+1.6
+6.6

58.4

(NA)

112.1
158
r66.57

12.0

6.7
1.6
1.4
2.5

341

-582
-262

111.0

98

0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6

0.0

+0.2

-9.2
+5.6
-139

+6.00 +7.08

+1.66 -2.27
(NA)
+1.33
-0.9
+0.4
+4.1
+2.2

-0.4
-1.7
-0.8
-4.3

+11.1 -10.1
+4.0

+28.8 +179.8

(NA)
(NA)

-216

+943
+0.6
+3.3
+2.1

+0.4
+0.6
+2.2
(NA)

+0.4
(NA)
+1.8

r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. 1Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table.2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change'' qualification;.
^This average is based on month-tomonth (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign, Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus pr
8
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same, unit of measure as the basic data, father than in percent.
This
9
balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.




BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators




1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours

2; Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)

30.

Nonagri. placements, all indus. (thou$

3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 10Q employeesinverted scale)

'

'•

4. Jimp, layoff, all Indus, (thous.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.-$ term)

||;

5. Ata. weekly initial claims,] State unempL

bed

bed

CHART

MAY 1966




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

19. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq.ft. of
^
floor area. MCD moving avgt-6 term)

..

.....

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bit.

11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)

7.

29.

Private nonfarm housing starts (ann. rate, millions.
moving avg,—6 term)

New btdg. permits, private housing units
: 1957-5^=100)

Jl

_ _L__L

160 - i
140 4
120 ^
100 1

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued




38. I Index of net business formation (195?7-59=100)

bus. incorporations (thous.

I
;

:
!
i
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.jnverted scale. ft/jCD movjng avg.-6 term

arge bus. failures (no. per wk.mverted scale. NCD moving avg.-6 term

bed

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966




CHART

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Pay)

ter taxes, Q (annr^ratevfbil. dol

I. i ...i.. ,Ml liTT,

19. Stock ^prices, 500_ commonj stocks

BASIC DATA

MAY

bed

1966

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

20

Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive




21. Cl lange in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q'jann. rate, bit. dol.)

20.

j

-10

Change in (book v^ilue, mflrs.' inventories}of

I

;

materials find supplies (ann. rate, bit tfbl:
MCD moving avg.—6 term)

+8

37. Purchased mater fats, per< ent reporting higher inventories

policy, prod. mt|s., percent repo|-ting commitments 60 days or

32. Ver dor performance, percer

reporting slower deliveries

25. Grange in unfilled
dur. goods indus. (bil.
MGD moving avg.i -4 term)!

+2

9 i
Tf
"""C

:i

«^

i.-1 J

I n
23. Industrial mater i a prices (index: 1957-59

r "-

m

160=^

140 ^
120 2

100 1

J 80 J

bed

MAY 7966




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

^—40r=lJTiemp}oy m enirrater iramsdi ma 1 1
1

. Avg. weekly insured unemplo

CHART

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued




47. Industrial production (indU 1957-59=100J

bed

bed

MAY 1966

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Income and trade




51. Bank debits, alt SMSA's except New York (ann. rate, tril. dot.)

52. Personal income
ann. rate, bil. dol.)

53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)

I

:j

55. .Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods (index: 1957-59=100)

CHART

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators

70
60

Investment expenditures
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

50

5

40

1

30
62. labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)

Cost per unit of output

110
105 „
100 -j

95
90
85
68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)

S
""

110
105 3
100 ^
95
§
90

65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bll. dol.)

70
60
50

3
S
«o

40
30
25

«?

20

64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bii. dol.)

1
*o

15

80
70
60

„

40

5
*

50
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)

30

18




bed MAY 1966

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

Federal budget and military commitments




82.

Fed. cash payments to public (ann. rate, bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—6 term)

Fed. cash receipts from public (ann. rote
MCD moving avg.-6 term)

84.

95,

Fed. cash surplus or deficit (ann. rate, bil. dol.
6—term moving avg.)

Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and
prdduct acct., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.
MCD moving avc|.—6 term)
/( jl

r 91. Defense Dept. oblig., total {bilf dol.
MCD moving avg,-6 t|irm)

j

i

(

92 Military contract awards inj U.S. (biL dol.
MCD movirig avg.-6 term) 1
I

99r New orders, defense products (ibiI. dol
-MCD rtioying ovg.-6^ term)
[

/I

CHART

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Reserves, money supply, and financing

+1.0

93. Free reserves (bil. doL)

+0.5

0
-0.5
85.

Change in money supply (ann. fate, percent,

t12

MCD moving avg.—6 term)

+6
0
-6
98,


20


+12

Change in money supply and time deposits
ann. rate, percent. MCD moving avg.—6 term)

110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

0
80
70
60
50

n
t
1

40

70
60
50
lit. Corporate gross savings, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)

2

40 |
30
+12

+9
112.

Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil.
MCD [moving avg.—5 term)

dol.

H-6

I
<*»

t

+3
0
113.

Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

+9
1
+3

**
-S
«

bed

MAY

BASIC DATA

1966




BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

114. Treasury bill rate (percent)

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

1181 Mortgage yields (percent)

CHART

CHART

BAS|C

Q ATA

MAY 1966

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Digitized for 22
FRASER


86.

Exports, exc. military aid (bil. doi.
MCD moving avg.-4 term)

87. General imports (bil. dot.
MCD moving avg.-4 term)

88.

Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol
4—term moving avg.)

89. U.S. balance of payments, 0 (bil. dol.)
a. Liquidity balance basis

81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)

94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100
MCD moving avg.-5 term)

96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. do!.)

b. Official settlements
basis

115
110
105
100

_
^
•§
"

bed

CHART

MAY 1966




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons

47. United !$tates (index: 1957-59=100)

123. Canado (index: 1957-59=100)

122. United Kingdom (index: 1957^59=100)

121. OECO European countries (index: 1957-59=100}

125, West Germany (index: 1957-59=100)

128. Japan (index: 1957-59=100)

126. France (index: ]9SM9=\00)

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators

Year and month

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

(Hours)

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industriesr

(Thous.)

(Per 100
employees)

4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries

5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs'1

6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries

24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries

(Thous.)

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Thous.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1962

July

4.0.5

4.2

557

2.1

128

303

August
September
October
November
December

40 3
4.0 6

40 2

3 8

553
551
557
565
5/3

? /

4.0 4

4
4
3
3

127
127
125
133
120

305
300
304
299
310

' 16 91
16 59
16 55
17.29
16.73
17 33

3.07
? 94
? 9B
3. OS
3.16
3 07

40.4
40 3
40.4

3.8
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.7
4.0

152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97

310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301

18.47
18,23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18. 28
18.06
18.24
18.6?
18.11
17 97

3.25
3.?1
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.4?
3 . 44
3.27
3 61

16
1
125
98
122
11
1
121
118
91
121
9?
89
109

284
270
?77
265
26?
257
260

19 74
19 50
19 26

3.62
3 41
3 46
3.61
3 93
3 9?
3 77

40 2

0
0
9
&

19
2 0
2 0
19

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

40.2

40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.5
40.6
40.1
40.6
4,0.6
40. 8
40.6
40.7
40.7
4,0.8
40.6
40.7
40.9
41.2

3.8

4.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
4.1
4.0
4, 0

3.9
4 0
4 1
4 0

5!52

554
555
557
546
545
541
&3
553
575
533
325
534
$32
523
522
529
518
523
507
$18
514
533
$24

1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
17

1.8 ''
18
18

1.6
1.7
16
19
15
15
16
1 5
16

2LL

245
2/9
262
251

20.46

19 94
20
21
1Q
19
19
1Q
20

02
25
3/
91
6?
/r)
72

3 77

3 69
3 7Q

3- gg
3 Q2

1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

41 2
41.2
41 3
41 0
4,1 1
41 0
41 0
41 0
40 9
41 2
41 4
41 4

4 0
4 0
4 3
3 Q

/ 1
L
/
L
/

5
"I
9
5

522

1 L

549
528
*53*i
yjj

1 L

533
fe/a

c/t
«37

teoq

1
1
-i
1
1
1

/
5
/
/
6
fj

1 .3
1 ^
~\ 3
1 3

4 5
5 0
4 9

'•547
5Z/
563

4 9
r4 8

570

1 1

r§89
p522

[Hjpl 0

pi 57
?1 1 3

937

91 71

3 Q6
3 80
/ 09

99 (V

/ n&

i n?
iy n

917
99;
4^4
ooy

1 91

001

inn

o/ c£

Qt
04
A/

1 1

EQ&oo

248

lTfl7Q
12A
110

1 3

1 on
1 9^

9/3

Q")

tt

onq
01 9
9flA

QA

QQ

on
99
91
<c±.
99
99

^T
9A
^1
51
1A
/9

OO

QQ

91 y n
xJ.4U

i
1

r\fj
f\Q

4.U?

I ^
4. =33
y iA

y ^
4 .T1 ,3
y 9^
4. O
y ^9
4. J»&
y ^ft
4. jo

1966
January
February
March
April.
May
June

41 5
[Hj41 6
r41 5
p/1 5

fH|p5 •JHUK-' 1

(NA)

(Nil

500
IDA

QT Q
*diy

Q3

1 cjo

1 HO

rim 7Q
uui /v

OQ ejj
<cj. PO

r^j. 74
O^OQ

^ /

fin! r>9y A"^
r\9^
PA j ,Si'?7
o

y i%
4.4?
•py «jj
r/ ^3
fw" n/ 7S

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by ED; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5r 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by [ED. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available,
x

Data exclude Puerto Rico which Is included in figures published by source agency.


24


bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings

Year and month

(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)

10- Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

(Bil. doL)

11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations1

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

(Bil. dol.)

29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits

38. Index of net
business formation

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

14. Current
liabilities of
business failures

(Mil. dol.)

1962

40.56
42.69
40.96

July

42 20
41 89

3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4 28
3 96
3 94
3 91
4 08
4 17
4 "32
4 56

51 07
*5i n*;

August
September
October
November
December. ......
1964
January

L

~\ /

47.82
52.62
' 47.72
51.41
53.75
49 61
58 88

i -i i
4.36
4 63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4 92
4 94

53.20
58.12
54.04
64.26
56,13
55.28
55.90
49 60
63 48
60.49
60.33
64.36

4.72
4.67
4.84
4.98
5.02
4.81
5.16
4 90
5 15
5 13
5.05
5.35

60,04
67.48
CH169.09

5 44
r5.49
0p5.6l
(NA)

/ a yn
53.48
46 22

.

1,409

L "38

41.08

July

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

3.72
3.61
3 56
3.66
3 82
3.99

44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47 00
51 39
45 78
44.93
43 88
50 81
43 73
45 43

August
September
October
November
December.
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, '
June

(NA)

2 81
3 35

2.80

3 30

3 72
4 10

108.7

97 7

1,531
1 300
1 , 410 •
1 63/
1,521

107.1
109 1
107.2
113 0
112 0

98 4
98 5
98.5
98 0
98 3

1,285
1,438
1,486
1,652
1,676
1 550
1,574
1,522
1 676
1 706
1,592
1 522

111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120 0
119 3
116 5
113.5
121 0
123 6
119 9
123 7

98 9
100.2
100 5
99.2
99 6

116 8
0124 6

1 6 O^C]

en 6Q

n A mA
1 (^ QQO

1 1 Q 9Q
1 1 fl Lrj

16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17 103
17,154

107 10
97 92
136.19
125 14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111 00
126 49

rain 7 £-3
/

1Q

4 81

5.00

4 52

4-99

5.79

5 85

0p6.22

(NA)

100
100
101
101
101
101
101

0
7
7
4
7
4
8

15,171
15 056
1 *5 ?/Q
14,892
U QS1
14 985

107 98

14,924
15,390
15 563
15,305
15 682
15 536
15 '431
16,093
15 689

146 46
93.05
94 12
88.15
115 05
91 07
144 50
052.86
94 52
99 92
255 72
87 17

16 275

15 759
15 867

121 85
106 02
129.87
96 62

99 61

1,506
1,496
1,593
1,475
1,489
1,422
1,495
1,480
1,575

113.6
112 9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110 8
105 4

103 1
102 8
102 9
103.7
105.3
103.9
104.0
103.6
104.8
106.6
105.8
106,8

1,417
1,468
1,465
1,532
1,501
1,539
1,447
1,409
1,436
1,380
1,531
1,735

112.9
108.0
112.0
104.7
109.4
110.6
109.7
107 4
104 1
111.1
113 1
116,9

107.5
107.6
106.1
105.3
105.0
106.8
106.4
106 4
105 3
104.6
105.3
105.9

17,275
17,367
17,112
16,504
16,043
16,671
16,369
16,957
17,138
16,744
17,418
16,999

84.54
107.57
146.29
79.51
139.09
135.66
120.64
128.98
108 56
85.67
66.65
128.06

1,585
rl,349
rl,530
pl , 474

111 4
105.1

108,7

0109.6

rll4 1

109.2

17 677
017,868
17,305
(NA)

111 67
94.59
98.7?
106.93

1 706
1 ^71

I oi 7

p!03 8

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"-, not available.
L
Data prior to 1 6 not comparable "because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a re91
calculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICB publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)




25

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

15. Number of
16. Corporate
business failures
profits after taxes
with liabilities of I
$100,000 and over

(Number per
week)

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries

(Cents)

(Percent)

19. Index of stock 2L Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries

(1941-43-10)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised3

1962

July

18- Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations

(1957-59=100)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)

17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing

38
/5
40

31 5

46
42
37

49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
41
41
38
44
39
1Q
LL

/Q

31.8

31 ?

32.6

32 8
33.8

36 7
•27 n

***

1 <->

qo a

yn

T5

/n
/?
qq
I7
1 rj

/^ A
4-J.o
***

// i
44.1

qo
) K.

l q

i/

e

44- 2
...

qc

jn
/&

37

36
16
q7

99 7
100 1
100 5
100 8
101.3
102 2
101.7
100 9
101.0
101 5
100.8
100 8
101 6
101 9
101 3
101 9
i f^-i
J.U1 . 1-7f
1 nri o

m

rt

im A

lUU.o
T npi .6
100 ^.
im d
T no o
102. A

i n^ . o
10< o
1 /-VQ /r
1U2 .0
im
lUji. J Q

103.0
103.3
103.9
104.9
104.4
103.6
•> p J
i

;c Q
4:>.y

rsin/ ^ /

56.97
8 1

11.2

8.1

11.1

8 1

10 8

8.5

11.2

8 6

11 2

8 8

11 3

Q 0

11 9

105.5

C

'105.7
p!05.4

+6 . 4

6^ Q?

65
68
70
70
69
70
72
71
72
74

67
76
14
11
07
98
85
01
6?
17

H

e.

+4.7

+5 8
+8 1

77 1Q

+3 1

78 80
7Q Q/

rt
S .9

11.7

p.
9 .Q

11.7

8.7

11.7

[EJ9.8

13.0

9.3

12.9

9.4

13.0

9.5

013.3

i ric y
105.4
T AC

+ 5.2

7^ / e

Q

1U4.9
105.3
0106.0

58 52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62 64
65 06

o

-i /-ipi

•37 e

/Q

/?

100.2
100 0
100.7
100.2
100.4
99.9

(NA)

(NA)

80.72
80 . 24
83.22
82,00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96

86.12
86.75
86.83
87.97
89.28
85.04
84.91
86.49
89.38
91.39
92.15
91.73
^193.32
92.69
88.88
91.60
3
84. 59

+4.1
+3.8

—
+7.5

+8.8

.. .
+6.4
.. .
+7.6
.. .

GD+io.i
• ••

.. .
r+B.l

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
byE. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indirates revised; <( p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", nnt suail'sKIa
cates rPV/JQpr!' "n"( nrplimmflrv/' "o" octimatoH- "a" antirinatoH- anH "NA" not available.
l E0= February 1962.
»See "New Features and Changes For This Issue,' page iii.
3
Average for May 17, 18, and 19.
Digitized for 26
FRASER


bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

1962

31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total

20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies *

37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories

26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*

32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*

25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

23- Index of industrial materials
prices*

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

July
August
September
October
November. ........
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
April
May
, *
June ...
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

44
45
43
46
50
49

58
52
52
55
52
51

44
44

+5.6
+ 5.5
+1.2
+5.1

-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7

+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2

+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0 5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7

47
43
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43

+5 1
+2 3
+3 7
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
+14.6

-1 9
-0 5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0

42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58

+11 2
+5 0
+13 8
+8 7
+9 4
+6 1
+11- 6
+8 1
+3 /
+8 2

+1 0
+0 4
+2 5
+5 3
+1 5
0 5
+0 7
+1 t
+1 1
+0 Q
+1 0
+2 0

+3.9
+2.0

+10 2

ED+16 2
+9 2
(NA)

+0 9
r+1 2
p+1 1
(NA)

60
61
£7
061
60
58
57

60
5A

/5
SO
/£

1S

46
53
Kl

48
48
48
48

-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91

94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8-

50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55

50
52
54
60'
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46

+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0,58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40

95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7

53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65

55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66

+0 40
+0 57
+0 16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55

98.5
98 5
98 9
102.4
100.9

65
65
68
67
65
62
62
6?

A#

+0 32
+0 81

Tin A
110 7
113 2

AT
63
A3
63

68
67
68
rrr. £<-\

[«j69

79

66

4-O

/ /

79

4-O

#/

70

+0 50

66
A?
Ay
Ao
An

•4-0

101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5

11 A 7

116 9
-i -i e q

5#

• n T#

11 y A

i n QQ

"I -| C

0

,n oi

m
-| -I C

s

_!_-]

OO

A

i r\

rj&

i-i

riQ

-) -| c c
1J-5 . 5
ml

7y

i -|

917

1 on ^

£5

r+1 31
ful Tu-i yA

1?? Q
[H! 123 5

AA
170

'H

QTjgA
A?

rvi-T

1 PI

1 7

^

3

118 2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are H
indicated
by EH]. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"-, not available.
X

[H] = December 1961.
Average for May 17, 18, and 19.

2




27

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and month

41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments

{Thous.)

(Thous.)
1962
July
August
September

October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
;. . .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey

55,637
55,703
55 796
55,830
55,879
55 880

40. Unemployment
rate, married
males

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

62 5Z7

S

c;

63 018
63 161
63 110

*>

7

5 A

3 A
Jj. D
3 7
o c
J. D

6? Q1Q

£ y
5 ft

61 33y

e c

3 .e
5

55 897
56 0?7
56 1-42
56 353
56,488
56,562
56 670
56,727
56 856
57 008
57 038
57' 205

63 086

*) 7
c q
c; 7

I
3 .7
/
3 .7

C

y
3 .4

57
57
57
57
57
*)8
58
58
58
58

A/ A?1
A^ n&y

^ .0
5 A

A^ PDA

2.4
c y
5 .4
5 .1
J.
5 1

252
606
694
781
864
033
190
301
499
370

A3 P1Q
A3 /A?
A3 71 A

0

63 579

*i Q

63 791A3 Q7/

*i 7
c 7

64 089
A/ 3DA

Ay ?y ^

^ 5
c

5

A/

3/7

C fL
2 .O
C £

Ay

3QQ

r
-5

A*) 7A^
A^ 77 /

A^ y 79
A^ <i£~i
A^ A&9
A*) AQ7

A^ 7?n

5

y
5 .4
c

/

•4
c n
5 .u
5. i
1
c 1

5 . -£
Q

6 8 87Q

AA 1 33

59 163

AA y?A

59 295
59,581
59 814

AA 71 Q

i ct
4.0

66 718
AA 8Q^

n
5 .u

59 846

AA QT Q

60 032
60 ?90
60 501

AA Qy 7
A7 y ^y

60 6?1
60 756
61,001
6l 472
61 884
£.>")

-*/&'

Y>AQ ^m
T>AO &cH
fJTl-nA? #&7

A7 Q7Q

A7 fti e;
A7 ft7Q

AS m n
AA Ayi

/

Q

4.7

n
3 '.u

1

ry

4. /

j
rt
4.0
j /•
4.0
4. 7
y c
4o

4.5

4-4
/ q

A& CK ^

4o
4-2
4.1

69,286
69,079
69,072

4.0
3.7
3.8

DO, 755

ED 69, 317

03.7

47. Index of indus46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising trial production
weekly insured
unemployment rate, in newspapers
State programs1

Q C
J>. J
0 C
J. ?

q (,

J.o

3 y

q o
p. 4:

3 ./c

0

o -|

pi
3 .U
1
3 .1
3
q
3O
Q
. J

1
3 .1
Q
2 .9
Q
2 .V
2 . rt0

2 x

.D

rt
2 .8
2 . ry7
2 /
.0
2rt
.O
pi

3 .0

2.4
2/
.0

2.7
2 .D
/1
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8

1.9

1.9
1.9
01.8

/

(1957-59=100)

o

4. <•
j i
i i
4.4
i

C

4. ;>
> L
4.0

Tin
10
1
1 H£t
1

f\rj

119.7
T nQ Q
119.0

/ o
4.0
y A
4.0
/ i
4-4
y o
4.2

1 f-\fj
elu 7
a 109

4.0

y i
4-1
4-3

,1, iy . u

1 r\ry
1 /
U

e!07

4.0

119.0

•> 1 n n

107
i (
Wr\n

/
4- 7
7

y o
4- <
j J4. i
y i
4.1
i i

(1957-59-100)

e!08

109
i n^
J,Up
in
1U4 y

109
1 f\C

1U?

107
11
1
112
118

., -, f
16
1
17
1
118
120
118
121

119 . 1
119.4

"\ 1 Q 2
1.19.0
120.6
121.9

122.7
Toy y
124.4

125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126 . 1
126 . 1
127.0

4.0
3.8
30
.8
3/
.6
X
3 .6
3/
.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3?
.6

134
137

127.9
128.4
129.3
130.8
131.8
132.0
133.3
134.0
134.0
131.6
135.4
138.1

3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6

137
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186

.1,38.6
139.2
140.7
140.9
141.6
142.7
144.2
144.5
143.5
145.1
146.4
148.7

2.6
2.6
2.3

184
191

r!50.2
rlS1.6

4.3

02.1

124
123
126
127

[^201
p!89

r!53.0
iB]pl53.4

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear; to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by ® for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5 r 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; arid "NA"-, not available.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.


28


bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 7966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Year and month

50. Gross
49. Gross
national product national product
in 1958 dollars in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)

(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)

57. Final sales 51. Bank debits,
(series 49 minus all SMSA's exseries 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)

(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)

(Ann. rate,
biL dol.)

52. Personal
income

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1962
July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. ........
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February .........
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1966
January
February
March
April

May..::::::;;;
June

533 6

564.4

559 2

538.5

572.0

565.6

54-1 2

577 0

572 5

544.9

583.1

578.4

553.7

593.1

587.3

560.0

603.6

595.5

567.1

6H.O

610.7

575.9

624.2

620 . 1

582.6

634.8

631.0

534.7

641.1

633.6

597.7

657.6

648.8

603.5

668.8

662.4

613.0

681.5

673.9

62-4.4

697.2

687.1

[EJr633.6

Oljr713.9

0705.8

55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods

(1957-59-100)

2,311.3
2 268 8
2,236.7
2 , 340 . 7
2,351.5
2,324,9

443 4
444 6
4^7.0
447.9
450.4
452.6

118 8
118 7
119.5
118.9
119.7
119.7

19,597
19,654
19,880
19 , 901
20,062
20,204

100 9
100 8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7

2 , 416 . 2
2 345*9
2,357.2
2 , 472 . 5
2 , 419 . 2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2

456.6
454.9
456.7
457.2
460.0
463.1
464.8
467.1
469.3
473.2
474.7
478.9

120.1
120 0
120.8
120.7
122.0
123.0
123.3
123.4

20,319
20 , 226
20,374
20 , 292
20,178
20,517
20 , 634
20,581
20,489
20,774
20 , 727
20,952

100.5
100 5
100.5

2,571.5
2,590.3
2 597 3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5

481.2
483.2

21 0?^
21 408

487.7
491.2
492.8
496.1
499.5
501.7
502.8
506.6
512.0

126.5
127.9
128 3
129.5
130.3
130.9
131.5
132.6
133.8
132.6
135.1
137.3

21 , 701
21,797
21 , 862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21,690
22,766

101 1
101 2
im ?
101.2
101.1
101,0
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
101.7

2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3 , 249 . 6

515.4
515.2'
517.8
520.5
525.0
528.5
530.4
532.1
545.4
541.3
546.1
550.9

137.3
138.4
139.7
138.8
139.6
140.4
141.4
142.1
142.2
143.6
145.6
146.9

22,936
23,262
22,856
22 , 849
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
24,194
24 , 647
24,816

101.7
101.9
102.1
102 2
102.3
102 6
102.6
102.8
102.9
102 8
103 2
103 1

3,198.1
3 , 263 . 9
["J3, 397.1
"p3, 390.1

r552.5
r557.4
r56l.4
[H]p563.1

147.9
149.9
151.2
iHjpl51:3'

Z8A 5

124.4
125.1
125.7
127.1

o-i on^
<,±} _3U;>

21 , 442

25,023
r 25, 263
EHjr25,536
p25,227

100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.1

103,4
103.8
104 o
[HTP104 3
X
104 4

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by [H] for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by (H]. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ended May 17.




29

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators

Year and month

61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1962
July

August
September
October
November ........
December
1963
January
February
March .'
April
May .
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June.
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

3B.35
37.95

36.95
38.05
40.00

41.20

42.55
43.50
45.65

62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing

68. Index of labor
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP

64. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories

65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods

(1957-59=100)
Revised1

(1957-59-100)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

100.7
100.9
100.4
100.6
100.3
100.7
100.6
100.2
99.7
99.5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
99.3
99.1
99.7
99.3
99.3
100.0
99.7
99.5
100.3

49.00
50.35
52.75
LED 55. 35

a57.20
a58.90

99.5
98.9
98.7
99.1
98.7
99.4
99.3
99.0
98.1
98.9
99 5
98.6
98.6
97.8
98.9
r99.4
r99.5
plOO . 1

(Mil. dol.)

67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*

(Percent)

Revised l

19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8

45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174

57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1

19.9
20.0

20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2

47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,655
51,207
51,631
52,194
52,648
53,202

60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60,4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
62.4
62.9

21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.2

53,689
54,259
54,865
55,333
55,907
56,375
56,911
57,410
58,004
58,475
58,836
59,454

63.2
63.4
63.7

22.4
22 4
22.5
22 3

64
64
65
65
66
66
67
68

22
22
22
2?

60,069
60,666
61,308
62,053
62,709
63,304
64,028
64 684
65 370
65,990
66 689
67 323

56.9
103.3

103.3

104.0
104.2
103.9
104.7

104.2
104.6
105.1

03101.2
47.75

66. Consumer installment debt

106.3

105.1

57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8

64 o

106 1
106 2

LH1106 4

3
6
4
8
3
6
2
0

•68 6
(NA^

AQ n
fTTiDfeQ 7

CM A)

L
3
5
*j

op A

22 7
29 Q
2*3 1

oq s

<.j* s

9-a A
<JJ.O
ruln?^ &
(Nti'\

67 920
68 /*i8
E69 107

(NA^

4.99
5.02

5.00
5.01
5.01
5.00

4.99
4.99
4.98
5.00

4.97
L QQ

e nn
...

e

nrj

.. .

fnle KK
^5. j}

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (3 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3. 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 03. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ill.


30


bed

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

Year and month

1962

82. Federal cash
payments to the
public

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised

July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
: *
June

July
August
September
October
November
December
1965 ,
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. ........
1966
January
February
March
April
May
Is
.....
June

113 0
107 7
112 9
113.8
118 7
115 0

83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public

(Ann. rate,
bil. dok)

Revised1
1 13
1.
108.6
109.3
107.6
110.6
108.9

112.4
109.6
116.5
113.8
116.7
115.7
120.2
121.6
119.7
122.1
119.3
117.2

107.3
108.5
109.1
108.1
114.1
112.8
113.7
117.3 ,
113.4
115.3
115.4
118.7

126.5
119.7
121 0
122.^
118.9
116.5
122.2
121.0
117.3
118.4
112.9
126.6

115.1
119.6
116 3
121.1
108.4
113.5
114.7
112.4
113.7
115.7
115.4
115.1

122.0
117.8
125.6
129.3
133.9
119.5
128.8
136.9
124.3
'146.3
•126 6

110.9
117.6
128.2
144.4
118.1
129.3
116.1
125.0
126.6
113.6
129 6
i 9^ n

146.9

-i on A

H2.5

-l oo r\

122.2

153.5
P138.9

1 QCJ

84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1

95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

-1 7
+0 9

(Mil. dol.)

1 657

-5 1
-1 1
-7 4
-5 7
-2 6
-2 9

-3.2

-2.5

+1.8

-6.5

-4 3

+0 6

-6.3

-6 8
-3 9
+1 5

+1 2

-11.4
-0.1
-4.7
-1.3

(Mil. dol.)

-3.0
-7.5
-8.6
-3.6
-2.7
+2.5

-2 6

-7.6

-3.6

2 017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984

1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273

4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371

2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2 733
2,578
2,086
1 681
2,079

1,075
1 843
l ?37
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494

4 351
5 317

2 149
? 68Q
1 5Q8
2,508
2,454
1 879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883

/ 1 11

-4.6
-3.4
-3.8

-10.3
-10.7
1 A "7

+1A
...
4,0

Q

...

A

U.y

pl62 5

T>4-?^ 6

Q

i-j p. pi

1) J?5
• "2 C C
11!
1 ,444
t pio
I ,4U<
1

O^ !

1, 224
11 ocj

, 12o

<:. y
O

Q

.. .
1

ft 1

v i

9A ^
<O. .5
Q £,

i
f^n&
4, <. (0

803
889

-1.1

-11.1
+10.4
+18.8
-11.2

1,089
1,747

4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325

1,141

-11.5

-4.6

(Mil. dol.)

4 517
4,385
3,892
4,535
4,920
4,140

i nn^

-10.5

92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms

1,395
1,040
1,675
1,787
1,205

-2.6

-3.6
-6.2

-8 1
-6 1

91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total

n-J-H
P+U. J*3

ry I 1
Ij 74-1

1,732
I oqo
) IJJ
1, O1 O
212
I rtrto
, oo2

1,521
1 , 420
1,947'
CWA ^
^NAJ

3,839
i ^.n i
4,624
4,593
4,630
4, 520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896

5

//r\

,669

5,100
5,179
5,879
A \
(NA)
ftd

'

1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,9.15
2,712
2,596
2,357
(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonalmovement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue,11 page iii.




31

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products

93. Free reserves*

(Bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Year and month

85- Change in
total U.S. money
supply

98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
oercent)

110. Total private
borrowing

111. Corporate
gross savings

112. Change in
business loans

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1962

July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
July
August
September
October.
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March .
......
April
May
June

2 07
1 94
1 88
2 09
1 70
2 53

2 89
? 09
2 4.2
1 97
2.40
1.90
2 40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2 48
2 34
3.29
1 86
1 98
2 41
1 79

+440

-0 84

+ 37*5

-1 68

+/19

+/ Q9

4-/73

+/ oft

+268

+/ 9?

+ft yn
+10 80

4.^7^

+4 08
+4 92
+1 ^6
+4 08
+ 3 P/
+3 96
+6*36
+2 40
+2 40
+5 52
+7 08
0 84

+301

+269
+31 3
+247
+138
+161
+133

+91
+94
+33
+209

+175

+89
+99
+167

+82
+120
+135
+81
+89
+106

•37

CJ/

+3 96
+1 56
+2 40
+31?

0 00
+7 80
+8 52

y i /J4
4-t.j 7*39

G£

+A on
ft

1 A

4-1 ?. 77
t-Jo 44

1 /4
-1 7 7

+5
+1
+1 T
+Q

16
//
7A

4-0

79

rto

-oj
-2

-44
-107
r-246
p-263

7"ft

+1 9 3A

4-7 9O

9 ftft

3^
77
Q7

f> i e. i oft
r4Pj4'&w

4-1 9 97
4-1 9 QA
i rj grj
4-1 9

ft7A

„/ e

Q-I *j

r45, Jl^

T-77

93A

r4V,^^4
„ *Q

"3O i

.. .

, rj

TY4-1 1 7 i

« i -] y

^A
^/

p+14. 04

AA
99
7S

4-1 . 7Q
+1 fV
,o yo
+p. 4«
4.1 7 9

. Q 1n

„ <Q ,dn^o
r4V o /^

•pco

A79

7Oft

T-A3

91 A

cpi

etjy

r50,5o4

r-AO

ftftO

*3

jjQ

+4 . .? 1
•^ * r^rt
+4. 7o
a, y
99
+4. 2w
, -i
/ o

y Q rtrt i

r49 , 554

„£ e 1 ftft

r5p,loo

...

vAft Ay n
...

+4. 2;)
,

...
T-^ft

~rj . 1 f
• y OK

+J.07
4=7
°31

***
r54j66Q
r55,440

• * '

von ons

r56,0l6

*1
p72 ,*436

p57,372

/'rt

..
17

+7"
i c
4.E

•r*i3

"^A

, n cf.

4-9 07
4-9 Oft

79
ftO

ft^

4-1

it

4-Q

4,1

4-9

ftft

4-1 0

i T 7 "3
+1 . 4 J
4=1 y 9

rj t d

^9

4-Q no
nn
O .00
j-19 An

OSJ

4,1

51 04.0
.. >

> Q

r4J, 74c

...

^9

4-ft

7 9 AAA

+8 76

4-7 Q9
+ /. 7<, £. Q/;

ft9

i O

...

4-Q 79

i -] r\

_L.y

CT A

•rA7 AAo

4-ft

1 ftO
--lo*d

-] -ay

-pCT

QO

^A

ft9

. o yn

4.7

j-ft ny

9ft

7 ^ 9^A
4^ j * Jo

...

16
88
/y
76

9ff

9ft

-1.24
i7
-144 i
17A

y 3 i o/

+8
+5
+y
+5

4-9

i q e>e
4 9

j.n Q^

+Z 56

4-ft

9

-loU

68
24
08
00
88
48
76
04

*iA

4-9

"i &r\

7 1 f?O
4Jj 7^A

90

+7
+6
+7
+9
+8
+6
+8
+11

4-/

+JD
-i r\c
-1U5

4-7

4-Q 1 9

4.1 nA

" * "

4-9

4-Q y ft

2 37

rj C
- IJ

...

7^

+8 40

+/

4-^A

-4-ft

+8 76

+ 3 A>/

+168

3.40
r3 04
r3 21
p3 06

+9 A A
i c ^4U
4-> i Q jr\

+9 /R

f)

1 87

2 44
2 46
3 24
2 46
2 58
2.62
2.81
3.45
3.28
2.57
?.53

+*) 04
4-/ nft
+/ ^

+/3Q

+1 . 4 J
+0.32
, rt /tn
+8.62

+12.35
+13.14
r+12.47
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10 . 00
+5.53
+4.00
+5.33
+0.32
+10.84

+14.23
+7.21
+8.87
p+6.60

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; l(e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.


32


bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 7966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

1962

July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May

114. Treasury bill
rate*

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year and month

113. Net change in
consumer installment debt

(Percent)

Revised 1
+4 49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82

June

July
August

September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

+5.82
+5.94
+ 5 72
+6.25
+5.29
+5 83
+6 91
+6.62
+5 09
+6 76
+5 45
+6 65

2 94
2,84
2.79
2 75
2.80
2.86
2.91
2 92
2 90
2,91
2 92
3 00
3 14
3.32
3 38
3.45
3 52
3 52

115. Treasury bond 116. Corporate- bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
yields*

(Percent)
4 02
3 98

3.94
3 89
3.87
3 87
3.89
3 92
3 93
3 97
3 97
4 00
4 01
3.99
4 04
4,07
L 11

/ zi

1 2ft
3 23

C.

CQ

Q
I ,nr i4V .&o

c.

en

1 , 7O^ .4
1 /U9 /

3 11

5 56

Z

27

3 0?

4 23
4 28

1 Ql O J
±j7lu. 3
I E / i n
t 544. f

3 04

5 55
5 5Z
5 53

4
Z
4
4

3
3
3
3
3

10
15
OS
10
11

3

91

22
25
26
35

Z 35
/ 1?

3 22

4 36
1

3 20
3 30
3 97

z zo
/ i ")

3 53
3 53

z 15

/ /Q
/ 3ft

3 55

13
65
33
42

3.48
3.48
3-48
3 48
3 51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86

4 18
4.20
4.16
4 13
4 13
4 14
4.16
4 16
4.12
4 14

+7 38
+7 16
+7 70
+8 94
+7 87
+7 14
+8 6C
+7.87
+8.23
+7 44
+8 39
+7 61

3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36

4.14
4.16
4.15
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4.34
4.43

A QO

+7 16
+6 46

4.60
4.67
4.63
4.61

4.43
4.61
4 63
4 55

4.92
5.07
5 28
5 2Z

ft/

+5 62
+6 89
+5 62
-4-6/1

+ 5 QQ

+7
+5
+4
+7

+7 7Q

(NA)

1

/ 1/

3 07

4 34
4 33

L ZQ

+6 84
1 17 07

(Mil. dol.)

4 39
4 28

4 14

4-5

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total

/ /5
4 49
4 48
Z ZQ
/ /3
Z £3

4 49
4 49
4 47

3 13
3 20

3 99
o -) y
jJ.14
3 ,£O
oS

3 28
3 20
3
3
3
3
3

90
1 ft
1Q
23
25

3 18

Z Z7

313

44
44
49
48
52
57
57

3 06

4
4
4
4
4
4
4

4.66

4 71
4 69
4 75

3 09

3 18
315
317
3 2Z
3 27

3
3
3
3
3

24
35
ZO
Z6
5/,

3 52

3 64
3 72
3 56

5 52
5 /ft
5 /7
5 /A
5 / 5
5 ./42
«;
2
5 / 5
5 / 5
5 / 5
5 / 5
5 /^
5 / 5

5 42
2. / 5
c ye
2 .42
51 e

1 79ft 7
•1 , 049 . jj
1 £*y q -3

Qft7 3
91991
1 QAQ 1
1 Ql 5 5
1 ftQA ft
1 7Q1 1
1 ft/1 1
1 Q05 3
1 Qft5 5
1 Q5/ 9
1 Q55 ft
9 1O5 /

^
2 ,U^V. O
AOQ

2r\£r<"7

&

,U2 /. o

r
2 n0?^ 5 . 2
, /£ ^

• 49
5/5
5 / 5
5 / 5
5 /A

9 0^1 0
9 O/7 3
2 O7A 5
2 1 1 ft A

5 /6

9 OQQ

5 Z6

9 9^1 n
2 1 5A 1

5 / 5
5 / 5
5 / 5

ft

9 9OA 9
9 / 9A 1

1 214 6

5 45
5 / 5
5 Z5

1

5 45

9 37Q A

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

/ 5
/ /
/ /
Z5
/A
/Q
51
A9

5 70
(NA1)
6 00
(MA)

5Qft ft

9 75/

A

9 9An 9

2 oqn n
2 jO9 C 5
.
OCC

9
9
2
9
9

339 Q
39/ 1
3/ 1 A
/Oft 9
355 ft

2,248
2 334
2,594.
2,331

6
8
4
2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page Hi.




33

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General imports, total

88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil. dol.)

Year and month

89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of construction conments (-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices
tracts, value
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance tesis
basisi

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(1957-59=

100)

(1957-59=

100)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations,2 manufacturing

(Bil. dol.)

1962
July

August
September
October
November
December

1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,314.6
1,424,9
1,376.5

+403.2
+357.5
+438.9
+230.1
+303.8
+466.8

1,099-9
1,510.4
1,484-7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8

-112,6
+611.7
+484.4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499.7
+490.6
+627.6

1,413.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514.0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9

+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2

1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832,9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,663.1
1,763.6
1,806.8
2,005.9
1,903.3
2,034.6

+21.9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+592.4
+569.3
+517.3
+335.7
+504.9
+321.2

1,935.5
1,992.9
2,072.7
(NA)

+313.1
+341.9
+521.7
(NA)

-433

(NA)

-711

(NA)

-1,199

(NA)

-1,108

(NA)

-210

(NA)

-153

(NA)

-257

r-152

-582

r-374

105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9

117
118
113
117
123
138

44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09

106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7

121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148

45.06
45.74
46.68
*47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68

107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9

147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154

47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96

109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0

137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153

54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
62.53

111.0
111.7
112.1
112.6

r!52
r!57
158
(NA)

63.80
r65.ll
r66.57
p67.74

B.26
aiai

1963
January
February
March
April

May

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

8^88
9^38
lo!o5
ll!Q2

1964
January
February
March
April

May.

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

-593

r+28

-1,366

r-844

12 '.08
13! 23

14*54
14.' 97

1965
January
February
March
April

May.

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

r-709

r-630

r+230

r+242

r-509
r-366

r+26l
r-1,205

15.*66
17^06
18.*17
p!9.40

1966
January
February
March
April

May

p-582

p-262

(NA)

June
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
This balance represents a provisional estimate "by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
2
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
~
"
"
" ~~ " ~"

34


bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons

Year and month

47. United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion

1962
July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February

(1957-59=
100)
119
119
120

119
120

119

(1957-59=
100)
118
119
119
119
120
120

120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127

120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128

128
128

133
134

131

122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)
113
114
115
110
113

(1957-59=

(1957-59=
100)

100)

126- France,
index of industrial production

(1957-59100)

127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production

(1957-59=
100)
151

(1957-59=
100)

125
125
126
128
128
126

149
150

181

110

130
131
132
132
133
132

153
158
160

179
178

110
11
1
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121

127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
135
136
136

129
128
132
133

127

158

1?5
1?Q

133

133

1 55
161
165
165

139

1 3/
1 ?Q
1?Q
136
1 37

163
166
171
171

202
207
211

"1 3Q

136
138

1 73
1 70

O~[ 7

139

1 /?

140

1 3Q

1/ /

1 1Q

172
i AQ

907

i /n
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143

T 1C

-i on

1 /J
1 T%

140

141

168

140
141

166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168

March

1 OQ-

1 33

Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September
October
November. ........
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

131
132
132
133
134
134
132
135
138

135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140

139
139
141
141
142
143
144
144
144
145
146
149

142
141
143
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
151
153

130
129
128
129
129
128
129
129
129
129
129
r!30

153

"I 31

pi 55

r>l 30

(NA)

125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

125
126
127
127
128
127

123
"l?"}
1 pa
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129

150
r!52
153
p!53

121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(MA)

145
145
143
145
146
146
145
•146
148
l/Q
148
r!48

1 50
nl 50

(NA)

1 3/

136
136
138
140

150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149

116

132
132
141
142
142
138

156

-i 07

1 RC:

1 "3Q
1 ?Q

166

l/Q

1 5/
1 55

~\ 5/
151

1 «i
1 55
156

•1 5y
153

1 57
1 5R
1)155

(NA}

i /n
1 "3Q
•Ljy
1 }O
14^1} 1

1/ /
"I/O

14 J)
1 /A

i ;A
148
~\ 1 1
I/O

T->T ^n
fwa^

17Q
180

17Q

179
184
184
1Q1
1QO
1Q1
PD3

o-i i

PI Q

oo/
^4
226
228
233
?3?
23?

239
P/l
?37
p/p

1 AA

O/Q

i AQ
loy
1 AA
i AQ
luV

T5 *7
<J(

r

rO 7^,
ri /p
1 rj/r
1 ft>
1 TSt
-I rj£

-L f ?

1 r7'rt
-,-j /"y
ri 70
1 S*2
lojj
T,T CJQ

T-O rty
pi 04
y>-)

Q/

UMA;
fWA^

243

oyo
^42
240

234
243
241
238
243
240
O / "2
243

fy t s
(i44

r^i?b
T.1£A

poo
/
\
OCA

WA
(NAJ

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; Hp", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




35




Section TWO

charts and tables

DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 indusfries
Profifs—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




37

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

0CCF

DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Current expansion
Jan.
1966

Feb.
1966

Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948

Apr.
1966

Mar.
1966

July
1957

July
1953

May
1960

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
6

7

7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month

6

1
1
5
10

1
1
2
4
3

15

5

9
1
5
1
2

"4
1
1
5
10

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

24
42

1
2
2
12
23
52

16
19

23
43

"i

24

16
2
1
2
3

24
0

24
0

**2

"i
^0
0

2

21
5

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more

„

6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

1

2

"i
i
2
9

1
10

1
1
9

1
1
82

1
1
91

1
1
82

3
4

'*3

Apr.
1953

1
3

* 3
1

**2

3

"i
4

2
3

1
1
27

1
1
36

1
1
27

1
1
0

1
1
73

6th month before business cycle peak
Feb.
1960

Apr.
1957

1

"3
3

8

3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948

2

Jan.
1957

Jan.
1953

May
1948

Nov.
1959

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

13
2

"4
1
X

20
5

4
4
"2
2
5
1
2
1
2

21
5

21

"i
2

13
2
1
2
1
2
3

l
l
1
l
4
1
2
3
7

9
1

"5
2

"3

24
0

24
0

^0
15

2

21
33

18

1
2

"i
2

6
7
3
2
2

"i
2

1
24
0

24
4

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
,
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

2

1

2

1

"i
1

1

1

2

"i

1

"i
2
6

"5
4

"*3
3
2

1
1
55

1
1
36

1
1
18

1

"i

"i

4
2
1

"i

"4

3
5

3
6

"4

5

4

3

1
1
45

1
1
45

1
1
55

1
1
36

1
1
27

NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series lii, a leading indicator, and series 40r a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
X

4 aeries were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the
were disregarded in this distribution.
2


38


Korean War and such peaks

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators

• '-

I.
Avg. workweek/ prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 Indus.
mfg.

I

1

D6. New orders, due. goods indus.-36 Indus.
L — JL
_=J
I

J—• 4 ~ - . 4 f 4 - M -

Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations- -17 Indus.,)
$pan, *—— 1-Q span)




D34J Profits, FNCB |f NY, percent feporting
:
!,_.-..- ' higher profits-^OCLcosli

r

r .

__\

i

i

._
Stock prices, 500 common stocks-80 Indus.

|

[
i
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 Indus, mils.

h''<•

jjJUlnlj .ilUUy IniuliLikf

CHART

CHART

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

bed

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

40



Percent

D41. Employees in nonogr. establishments-*30 Indus.
(6-mo. span—

1-mo. spah —)

100

50
0

D47. Industrial production-24 Indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span •--)

100

50
0

D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
(6-nfio. span —

1-mo. span —)

100

50
0

D$4. Sales of retqil stores -24
(9-nio. f s p a n —

types of stores

1-mo. span —)

100
50
0

bed

CHART

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent

D35. Net soles, all mfrs.-800 cos.

100

50

'
!
F
I
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400
•
-(iOspanl

D48. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
-Q span])

i

" '(
D48. Change in total carloading,

-y-

HmrHtons=of cars-4-Q span)) -

0

i
E

-fl.5
D61. New plant and equipment expendJl7-22 indus.

too
50
0

Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:

Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (Jan, 1968)
D48 (Mar. 1966)
D61 (Feb. 1966)

jlitlllllf




Actual
4th Q 1 964 - 4th Q 1965
2nd Q 1964 - 2nd Q 1965
3rd Q 1965 - 4th Q 1965

Anticipated
2nd Q 1965 - 2nd Q 1966
2nd Q 1965 - 2nd Q 1966
1st Q 1966 - 2nd Q 1966

I;
. dUluiulifl(uiululiiLii fuj i uiJ-M
im DDfil ntl IQI'j H§3^

h'lg

Wr., |

g^TInio"M &;^TL:U" ^'"P
41

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators

Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)

06- Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)

Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1

Year and month
1-month span

9-month span

1-month span

9-month span

3-quarter span

1-quarter span

1962
July

August
September
October
November
December

1963
January
February
March
April
May
, ':
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7

42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0

36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2

36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4

76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85,7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3

61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8

63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5

88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8

4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
97.6

85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5

55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1

76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1

57.1
61.9
59.5
19.0
78.6
23.8
52.4
50.0
38.1
71.4
81.0
59.5

76.2
81.0
59.5
59.5
33.3
54.8
71.4
69.0
78.6
r95.2
92.9
p85.7

48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
76.4

77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
r8l.9
80.6
p86.1

47.6
71.4
r21.4
P42.9

56.9

30.6
r50.0
r77.8
P43.1

76

53

*59

*74

47

53

*59

*53

*53

*65

'65

'?6

53

76

*56

71

*53

44

*32

'59

76

65

71

*76

*53

p76

P53

(NA)

CNA)

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICB publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)

42


bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span

1962
My
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.....
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

48
'56

50
*59

'%

55

57
*60

57
'%

55
59
*55
*60

57

D19. Index of stock prices, 500 lcommon
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span

9-month span

D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span

9-month span

D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span

9-month span

69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4

1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
.95.0

23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8

30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5

63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2

38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2

97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
•44.9
44.9
68.4

95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4

61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7

61.5
69.2
61.5
69-2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9

34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4

44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4

74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0

83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6

53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5

61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2

89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0

73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3

92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1

80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63,6
60.4
67.5
70.1

53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5

69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
A6.2
38.5
53.8

24-5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1

78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
95.7

38.5

38.3
44.7
83.0
53.2

74.0
48.7
14.3
63.6

61.5
76.9
46.2
30.8
3
34.6

2

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for May 17, 18, and 19.




on 79

43

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and month

D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)

D47, Index of industrial production
(24 industries)

D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1

D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
6-month span

9-month span

1-month span

75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7

95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3

41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4

32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1

83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4

50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77,1

70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1

41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7

32.6
47.6
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6

62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2

91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7

43. &
70.8
5?.l
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9

79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
S3. 3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54.3
78.3

63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.S
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9

69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78. 3
82.6

66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
52.1
75.0
83.3
91.7

83.3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
r87.5
87.5
r 100.0

63.0
69.6
30.4
54.3
87.0
43.5
80.4
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
37.0

63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9

76.1
SO. 4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60.9
71.7
73.9
87.0
89.1

r70.8
77.1
r72.9
p66.7

P95.8

71.7
r69.6
r65.2
P58.7

63.0
80.4
r71.7
p80.4

P91.3

1-month span

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3

51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0

52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4

66.7
77.1
60.447.9
72.9
62.5

65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0

60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3

79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1

53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
75.0

75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0

75.0
75.0
81.7
60.0
60.0
80.0
85.0
56.7
63.3
85.0
91.7
81.7

83.3
76.7
80.0'
78.3
76.7
76.7
85.0
91.7
91.7
86.7
95.0
93.3

1-month span

1962

July

August
September
October ,
November ........
December

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
,
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

7*. 3
78.3
r88.3
p65.0

p90.0

83.3

80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
r95.7
p82.6

34. a

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising ^nd are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month; of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA".!not available.
lr

Fhe diffusion index is based on 24 component^ through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.


44


bed

MAY

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

7966

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)

D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)

048. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)

D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

1-quarter span

Year and month

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

Actual

Anticipated

1962

65.6

40.6

63^2

63!'2

'so

77

*76

73.7

78.9

80

*76

'76

57 ,*9

68.'4

*84

*82

80

78^9

78^9

+21

*84

'35

*82

*84

68.*4

73.7

-39

*83

*87

*84

'84

84.2

68!4

+11

*82

*86

"si

'84

73.7

94.7

+41

*83

'87

'84

"84

52.*6

89 .'5

+30

'34

*88

*84

*85

52.6

89." 5

+49

90

*88

90

*84

(NA)

84.2

+23

*88

*88

88

84

84.2

+22

(NA)

90

(NA)

*87

73.7

+28

*90

89.5

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August
September
October
November
December

1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

84.*4

+44

82

65.'6

+39

74

87.5

+29

*76

68." a

81.*2

'?6

65.6

75.0

"76

68*. 8

56.2

*82

75.6

-67

74

50.0

96 .'9

68.'4

50.0

84.* 4

42.1

75.6

62." 5

70

71.9

71.9

71

75.0

71.9

74

50.0

75^0

72

68.8

65^6

August
September
October
November
December

65.6

46.9

July

1966
January
February
March
April
Mav
, y
June

*91

62.5
71.'9

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA"r not available.




45

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1965

1966

1965

Diffusion index title and components

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.r

Mar.

Apr,P

rU.5

41.5

r42.0

42.6
41.5
41.8
42.2
41.7
42.4
43.7
41.3
43.5
42.0
40.1

Average weekly hours
DL AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

41.3

41.0

U.I

41.0

41.0

41.4

41.5

41.6

41.5

42.3
42.6

41.2
40.9
41.4
41.3
43.7
41.7

41.7
41.0
41.6
41.9
42.1
42.1

41.8
39.9
41.4
41.6
42.1
42.0

42.7
40.5
41.3
41.7
42.4
41.8

42.4
41.8
41.8
43.0
41.2
42.3

42.4
41.5
41.7
42.7
41.9
42.6

42.3
41.1
41.7
42.4
42.0
42.6

43.2
41.2
43.5
41.4
39.8

42.3
40.5
42.7
40.5
39.5

43.0
41.1
43.0
41.6
39.8

43.0
41.0
42.9
41.4
39.6

42.9
40.6
42.3
41.3
39.7

43.9
41.5
42.9
41.7
40.2

43.9
41.5
43.5
42.2

r43.9

40.0

44.0
41.6
43.4
42.5
40.3

41.1
38.3
41.9
36.6
43.1

41.0
36.7
41.5
36.0
42.7

41.0
37.3
41.5
36.4
•43.1

41.0
37.2
41.4
36.5
43.0

41.2
37.7
42.0
36.5
43.6

41.2
39.1
42.4
36.3
43.2

41.6
41.4
42.5
36.6
43.5

rU.l

38.6
41.9
42.1
42.2
38.2

38.5
42.2
42.4
U.I
38.3

38.5
42.0
42.2
41.7
38.4

38.5
41.7
41.9
41.8
37.8

41.4
38.1
41.4
36.3
42.9
38.6
U-6
42.1
41.8
37.9

38.5
42.0
42.0
42.4
38.2

38.7
42.2
42.8
42.3
38.9

41.0
41.8

41.9

.

38.7
42.0
42.0
42.3
38.4

rU.5

r42.0
r42.8
r41.9
42.5
r41.4

r43.0
r42.5
r40.2

r39.3
42.4
36.5

r43.5
38.7
r42.1

1-42.5
r42.1

r3B.5

41.1
3B.7
42.1
36.6
43.7

33. a
41.9
42.6
43.3
38.9

Millions of dollars
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries . „
21,714
Primary metals
3,593
Blast furnaces, steel mills
2,018
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
2,065
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
...
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
3,100
Steam engines and turbines*
} 166
Internal combustion engines #
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
598
Metalworking machinery *
213
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
245
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *, .

22,043
3,456

20,992
3,286

21,310

22,195

3,454

1,876

1,632

1,816

3,493
1,851

2,098

2,027

2,042

3,107

3,108

3,189

156

142

226

581
222

601
208

560

285

258

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
preliminary, r=revised.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.


46


23,741 r24,629 p23,868
3,994 r4,045 p3,B84
(NA)
p2,106
2,141

23,403
3,684

23,578

1,854

1,776

2,058

2,335

2,177

2,247

p2,405

3,140

3,532

3,427

3,317

p3,511

(NA)

149

316

224

223

p239

(NA)

603
242

570
264

638
231

617

p67H

204

272

P3ia

(NA)
(NA)

230

248

278

260

246

P248

(NA)

3,603

^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.

(NA)

NA~Not available,

bed

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9-month spans

1-month spans

1966

1965

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components

i
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries.
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories ....
Lumber and wood products ....
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, cfay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products ....
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and related products.
Rubber and plastic products...
Leather and leather products ..

52

50 38 71 81 60 48 71 21 43
+

0 0 -

-

o

-

+

0

+

+

60

60

33

55 71

69

79 95

93

86

- 0

+

+'
O

O
0

+

-

o
0

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

O

+

+

+

+

0

-

O

+

0

o
0

40

+

+

4-

o

+

+

+

+

0

+

Q

O-

4-

o

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blastfurnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals

42 61

61

56 76

31

50 78

43

78 68 67 68 92 83 81 82' 81 86

Fabricated metal products:
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
•••
Hardware, structural metal and wire products.
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling •
Metal working machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*..
General industrial machinery*.
Office and store machines*...
Service industry machinery *..
+ ~ rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are cbmputed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.




* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

47

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May 1

Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS'2NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES - Continued
Electrical machinery
,
2,711 2,929
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
602
| 604
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
701
Communication equipment
529
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
6,301 6,453
Transportation equipment
*
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft

2,801

2,874

3,099

3,211

3,462

r3,332

p3,449

(NA)

603

668

672

736

727

r?62

p688

(NA)

659

691

752

579

828

r?24

p697

(NA)

5,878

5,870

6,363

6,165

6,526

r6,574

r6,708

P 6,392

120.5

122.9

123.5

121.5

116,2

.620
.082

1.770

.587
.074
30.335
1.686

.151
.169
.291
.215
1.787

.151
.163
.291
.210
1.807

.207

.213
11.089
.235
.072

Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total . . . .
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3

Index: 1957-59 = 100

(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index

113.2

116.7

116.9

115.3

114.6

117.1

Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
.,
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
.'
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average . . .
Print cloth (yd,) average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib)
Tallow (Ib)
.D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores

.382
.413
.074
.075
37.328 36.929
1.661
1.819

.414
.073
38.600
1.910

.426
.076
36.055
1.894

.418
.075
35.677
1.867

.475
.073
34.804
1.730

.522
.073
35.262
1.791

.586
.076
37,719
1.847

.632
.078
36.019
1.808

.150
.133
.305
.200
1.598

.152
.143
.304
.204
1.651

.151
.147
.303
.206
1.642

.152
.146
.303
.207
1.643

.150
.145
.304
.212
1.695

.148
.163
.298
.208
1.725

.149
.159
.297
.207
1.724

.150
.161
.294
.207
1.726

.150
.170
.292
.205
1.762

.149
11.803
.262
.080

.156
11.652
.268
.081

.158
11.629
.272
.079

.162
11.733
.265
.079

.164
11.919
.260
.080

.180
11.558
.247
.074

.206
11.663
.252
.080

.232
11.535
.259
.077

.236
11.420
.257
.073

11.341

.239
.071

Millions of dollars
22,856

£2,849

23,317

23,322

23,668

24, 816

4,914

4,986

5,021-

5,053

5,076

4,432

5,278

r5,359

p5,406

(NA)

1,724
1,869
211
431

1,746
1,850
205
420

1,769
1,909
215
450

1,769
1,885
211
442

1,812
1,936
219
443

1,875
2,019
209
433

1,879
2,119
243
451

rl,915
r2,127
223
r457

pi, 935
p2,112
p220
p464

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

264

265

271

262

268

269

289

r2S9

p272

(NA)

NOTE: Qata are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA=Not available, p=preliminary, r=revtsed.,
1

31,479

25,023' r25,263 r25,536 p25,227

* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.

Average for May 17, 18, and 19.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments"
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3


48


bed

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 7966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans

9-month spans

1965

1966

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
00

£

£

•<

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES-Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * ..
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations ..
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*.
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total ...!!"!!!".""!!!.'.'
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
\
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES 2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index

Copper scrap (Ib.).
Lead scrap (Ib.) ..
Steel scrap (ton)..
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average ....
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
Percent rising
All retail sales
•
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores

46

42.. 50

15

35

80

o

-

74

74

78

77

46

+

31

35

+

62

69

54 54 46

46

46

46

38

54 38

87 74

87 87 96

91

96

96

96

83

o

48

62

o

62

37

72

70 65

59

4- = rising; o.= unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.

*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

^Average for May 17, 18, and 19.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.




49

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
Apr.

Mar.

June

May

July

Jan.

Dec.

Mar.P

Feb.

Apr.

Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and othef apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores. ...... * * . *
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores . . .

496

502

501

510

560

570

r594

p576

(NA)

207
687
339
730
216

203
675
337
724
218

220
682
332
776
228

212
699
334
783
228

211
722
334
782
234

214
735
378
825
245

240
759
378
896
253

240
r730
r405
r862

p226
p764
p406
p893
p256

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

4,363
245
1,771
753
509

}

485

4,218
354
1,792
762
516

4,295
260
1,811
755
530

4,359
247
1,824
760
525

4,491
252
1,831
775
527

4,714
239
1,838
828
533

4,610
274
1,907
806
560

r4,7l8
r277
rl,907
r8o6
r56l

p4,790
P293
pl,897

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

T252

P816

p575

;;;
1965

June

July

1966

1965

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.'

Mar!

AprP

Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
...
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
i,
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade . . . ,

60,290

60,501

60,621

61,001

61,884

62,148

62,501

62,881

62,887

100
527
356
490
1,068
973
1,192
1,142
1,237
245
332

102
528
357
495
1,077
983
1,208
1,149
1,238
250
334

104
530
354
495
1,079
977
1,208
1,152
1,280
248
342

105
527
357
500
1,068
983
1,2181,163
1,267
251
342

107
530
358
500
1,046
987
1,224
1,182
1,263
252
349

107
547
368
512
1,035
1,012
1,244
1,225
1,290
256
359

13
1
556
370
520
1,045
1,024
1,252
1,244
1,297
261
345

18
1
553
373
516
1,050
1,036
1,262
1,269
1,330
265
350

121
559
373
518
1,055
1,042
1,264
1,275
1,345
267
353

123
553
372
520
1,053
1,040
1,269
1,302
1,357
269
349

1,134
75
818
1,221
494
616
542
10
1
359
309

1,141
75
822
1,196
500
622
548
11
1
361
308

1,135
68
823
1,195
497
622
548
10
1
363
310

1,129
68
825
1,205
499
621
546
11
1
362
310

1,144
70
828
1,212
500
625
544
10
1
365
311

1,156
72
837
1,225
507
629
548
10
1
378
314

1,155
71
840
1,203
510
637
551
10
1
380
317

1,161
70
842
1,229
512
639
554
10
1
379
319

1,160
72
844
1,227
513
640
556
10
1
334
319

1,142
72
8^6
1,233
514
6U
557
10
1
389
323

626
3,195
4,034
3,272
2,308

633
3,154
4,031
3,281
9,338

627
3,189
4,049
3,273
9,327

617
3,186
4,067
3,281
9,360

622
3,202
4,071
3,288
9,396

630
3,386
4,079
3,309
9,513

632
3,383
4,090
3,323
9,586

631
3,374
4,104
3,336
9,606

633
3,462
4,108
3,343
9,658

596
3,377
4,115
3,347
9,608

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.

x


50


60,756

NA=Not available, preliminary, r=revised.

bed MAY 1966

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans

9-month spans

1965

1966

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
Q A d . ^ - .

=1

3

CD

>

0

<^

O

C

-0

03

<3£

*-

CD

,__

<S

0.

•—! <C <? O
2= C? "7> LL_
^ <C
§'
'
oo A
•*!•
>
cj
(^ -Q
iL
- , ^ 3 M z s & 3 - £ a

"s

00

O

iii t *
.
0

d.

CD
OO
<J
CD

o

9
03

-Q
CD

tl_
TO

U_

S

J_
O.

<C

._

•§"

1 -i

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

- -

+

+

+

-

+

-

0

+

+

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

4-

Q

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

-.-

+

+

+

+

--

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

0-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

0

+
1

'

+
+

+
+
+

+

+

0

-

--

---

0 - -

-

+

+

0

-

+
+

-

0

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

4

-

-

4

-

+

+

0

-

+

+
+

+

+

+
+
+
+
+

S

,»

z

§5
—i

57

63

85

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery

=
<C

85

041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)

"Ei
—i

+

+

-

+

+

•§

~T>

+

CD
O

(j§
—»

"^
U_

°s
S

03

92

82

78

78

88

65

+

+

+

+

+

+

78
+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

0

+

0

+

+

+

-

+

+

2

0
.
CD

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ +
+ +

+

+

+ +

+

1966
£
O

o
Qj

C

O
n
.
<C

OJ

^
>•»

Q

c

-^
—1-

I 1<
<£

co

§

95
+

93
+

90

+

+

+

+

---

+

+

+

+

-

77
+

77
+

85
+

92
+

+

,+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+
. +

+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

o

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+

+
+
+
+
+
o

+
+
+
+
+

+
+

+
+

+

4-

0

-

+

4-

+

4

+

-

+

+

+

+

4

-

4

+

-

4-.

+

4

+

+

0

+

+

+

O

-

O

4

-

-

-

4

-

4

+

4

-

4

-

-

-

4

+

-

-

4

+

-

4

+
+

+

-

+

+

-

-

•

+

0-

+

+

+
+
+
+

O

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

4

4

O

-

-

4

-

0

-

-

4

-

-

-

4

-

4

4

-

-

4

Retail trade

+

-

4
4

-

Transportation and public utilities

4

4

-

4

+

-

-

4

+
O

4

-

O

4

-

O
4

-

-

O

4

-

4

-

-

4

4
4

O

-

+

-

4

-

o

+

+
+
+
+
+
+
+ . +
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+

+
+

+
+
+
+

o
+
+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+

+

O

+

0--

-

+
+

-

4

4

4

4
-

-

4

-

4

4

-

+
+

0 4 -

-

-

-

-

0

4

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

4

4

+

-

4 - 4 -

+

-

-

o

-

-

4

4

-

+

0
-

-

+

+
+

+
-

92 87
+
+

+

+

- 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

+

••

- 4 -




+

+

. +

0

-

O

4

+ = rising; o = unchanged;

+

+

-

4

Alining

<c

+

•

00

5.

*£

+

+

Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products

43

U-

+

Transportation equipment • * •
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products

+

+

1965

o
S

S""ej
oo
O

+

+
+
+

6-month spans

S

ci

+

+

+

+

1966

•5 = ^ ^ 0 0 o
§» & 0
-

+

+

+

1-month spans
1965

+

+

+
o

+

+

+

+

4 - -

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+

+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+

+
+
0

0

+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

+

- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.

51

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Dec.

Mar.

Apr.p

2,425
7,965

3,082
9,205
2,451
8,021

3,099
9,242
2,477
8,091

3,103
9,261
2,508
8,147

Jan.

Feb.

Thousands of employees
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NQNAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

3,041
8,857
2,355
7,659

3,049
8,929
2,376
7,678

3,053
8,946
2,379
7,706

3,061
8,967
•2,379
7,740

047. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products ..........
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile milt products
Apparel products
Leather and products ..................
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products •
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals •

3,069
9,019
2,386
7,785

3,082
9,128
2,395
7,933

3,080
9,142

Index: 1957-59-100

1-42.7

144.2

144.5

U3.5

145.1

148.7

r!50.2

r!51.6

r!53.0

153.4

143 '.6
146.4

148 '.7
148.0

146 '.5
147.5

131.2
147.0

123.7
150.9

126! 5
156.3

r!3<X8
r!57.0

r!32*.5
rl60.6

139*7
161.4

141
162

159! I
158.4
U9.5
149.8

161.7
159.2
149.8
152.1

162 '.4
160.1
151.5
152.6

162.4
162.1
149.4
155.7

165.8
166.2
155.0
158.0

169.2
172.8
160.7
162.2

171 '.9
177.6
163.1
166.0

rl74.4
rl79.8
163.2
rl71.2

173.7
179.5
165.6
r!73.5

131.6
112.8

132.6
115.4

133*5
117.2

133*. 8
116.2

134*4
118.3

137.' 6
125.4

139 '.4
125.6

rU1.6
r!26.5

r!42.9
pl27,S

174
133
167
172
139
144
(NA)

156^8
H3.5

155*. 8
143.5

156^3
146.6

156 '.8
147.1

159*7
150.4

164.' 3
155.5

165 '.4
151.2

rl66.*8
155.3

168 .*0
157.0

169
155

132 '.2
145.4
105.1

133 !s
143.8
107.7

134.8
141.9
107.0

135*7
H3.8
108.2

137.7
145.7
109.3

140.3
148.5
113.9

rUO.'l
rl46.9
rl.7
il

rl40.S
p!4S.l
pllO.l

140.5
pl40.4
(NA)
(NA)

139 .*4
130.0

142.1
131.3

Hi'i
133.0

143.' 9
129.3

143.' 6
131.1

147.7
134.2

,r!48.4
135.7

r!4B.4
rl3S.2

169.' 9
121.8
169.1

172.8
124.5
170.2

174.2
125.8
168.1

176.* 6
125.1
171.2

177.1
124.0
175.5

180 ! 6
127.8
181.3

rl8l*9
r!30.5
rl84.6

rl84.4
r!25.5
P183.3

122.3
121.8

123 11
119.9

122.4
120.7

123 '.2
120.6

123^6
114.5

125.3
117.1

126 !o
119.6

126.4
p!27.0

pl46*.9
139.2
rl75.S
plS6.2
P126.3
(NA)
126.4
P126.3
(NA)

141
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
143
(NA)
139
177
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
127
(NA)
(NA)

117.1
112.5

117.1
113.0

115.2
114.2

106.7
110.6

116.8
114.0

118.5
114.5

114.4
113.4

111.2
rllS.O

117.7
1.16.7

123*. 7
125.8

126.4
127.3

130.2
129.1

122.4
127.4

116] 5
125.5

120.' 6
138.2

13X4
135.5

r!30,8
r!35.6

p!36*.2
p!37.0

103.1

103.0

103.3

103.2

103.4

104.1

104.2

104.9

105.2

105.2

99.3
98.0
102.1
101.3

99.5
97.8
101.9
101.6

101.0
97.7
101.7
101.3

101.6
97.7
101.7
101.4

101.8
97.9
101.6
101.1

103.1
98.3
101.8
101.7

103.9
98.3

104.3
98.5
102.1
102.2

rl05.7
r98.4
r!02.1
102.4

108.2
98.8
102.3
102.1

85
17
1
132
(NA)
(NA)

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING2
(23 manufacturing industries)
AH manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel

102.1
101.8

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. NA=Not available, p=preliminary) r=revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)

52


bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

TABLE

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans

1-month spans

1965

1966

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLlSHMENTS-Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate ,
Service and miscellaneous. —
Federal government
,
State and local government.
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production.
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products.
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products ,
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel, and leather ...
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber.
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products ..
Foods, beverages, and tobacco ..
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries.
Durable goods:

81 67

52 75 83 92 71 77 73 67

83

83 67 88 88 88 88 88 100 96

+
NA

NA

+

+
- NA
+ NA NA
- NA NA
+
o
_ NA

NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
+
NA

+
NA
-

NAWA

-

+

- N A
NANA
0

-

- +
+ N A

+

- - +

NA
NA

NA

NA
NA

-

+

NA
NA

NA
NA

61

54 52

52 70 74 63

80 72 80

76 67 70

61 61

72 74 87 89 91

Lumber and wood products.

Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel

+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. NA Not available.
l
The percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.




S3

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar!

Apr.P

Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINGi-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp paper and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
preliminary.

116.2
101.2
109.0
104.. 8
105.6
97.0
100.7
113.0

115.8
101.4
109.3
10 A. 7
105.2
97.3
100.5
113.3

116.6
101,7
110.2
105.7
105.2
96.7
100.7
112.2

117.2
101.7
110.0
105.9
104.8
96.6
100.7
110.8

116.8
101.7
109.7
106.0
104.8
96.5
100.3
110.5

117.1
102.0
109.6
106.4
105.6
96.5
100.5
111.1

118.4
102.2
109.9
106.6
105.5
97.1
100.5
112.5

119.9
102.7
110.1
106.8
105.6
97.8
100.4
115.1

121.0
103.4
110.6
107.3
105.7
98.3
100.3
113.0

122.6
103.5
110.7
108.5
105.7
98.4
100.4
113.0

106.2
107.7
100.7
103.9
95.7
103.6

106.3
107.2
100.9
104.7
95.6
103.6

107.0
107.1
100.8
105.1
94.8
103.9

106.1
107.4
100.9
105.5
94.4
103.9

106.1
107.4
101.0
105.9
93.3
104.1

109.8
107.9
100.9
105.5
91.9
104.3

109.5
108.3
100.7
105.6
91.4
104.7

111.9
108.3
101.1
105.6
91.1
104.9

112.1
109.6
101.5
105.8
90.7
105.0

1 17
1.
109.6
102.2
106.2
90.5
105.1

100.1
97.4
95.4
93.5
107.6

..........

100.2
97.5
95.5
93.5
108.4

100.3
97.3
97.4
93.4
112.0

100.3
97.4
96.7
93.5
111.2

100.5
97.6
96.8
93.1
112.6

100.9
97.7
97.7
93.4
114.6

101.1
97.5
97.0
93.4
116.6

101.1
97.5
97.9
94.0
118.8

101.6
97.4
97.5
94.1
119.3

102.2
97.5
98.6
95.4
121.3

r-revised.

are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)

54



Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index 05, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.

bed

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans

1-month spans

1965

1966

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
"3

3 * 0 5

—i

—•>

+

+

=

"o

<t

O

co

^

~=3

^

33

o

<5'

z

+

&

o

+

-S

J£

09

—(

«

J
|

u_

i®

0.

:s

S

=

| * g - § | « g £ j 5

&

^^ iJ-s4il'J'o

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products . . . . ,

00

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

4 - 4 - 4 -

+ + + +
+ +
+
+ + + +
+ + +

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

O

+

-

-

-

0

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

-

O

-

O

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

O

Nondurable goods:
+

Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
0

4"

4-

+

4-

O

+

+

0

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+

Pptrnlpiim nrnHiirt^ rpfinpH ......... .............
0

4"

9-month spans

1-month spans

1965
—i

D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising3. ...
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products

°O

CuO
"i

1966

"•—'
CJ

^*
O

n"J
***

C

CO

-^
<U

1965

m
™

•—
CX

f ^ ' & ^ S ^ ' S i l ' S
PS

?^n

£\*7

ft?

^7

nri

ni

/Q

i/

£*}

-

4+

0

0

-

-

-

4-

-

-

-

+

-

-

+

,
+

4

-

4

-

4

-

4

-

4

-

+

Publ ishing
Chemicals.
Drugs
Oil composite
Building m3terials composite ........................
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies « . . * • ;
Electric companies

+

+
+
-

-

+
+

+
+

+

+

+
+

+
_

Q

O

O

-

1966
-

*

-

>

C

J

=

a

-

u

_

! « ? < 8 < 3 S S . s > i ? 5 ! (

1

i

~ ° >
"
«
o s :

: T
' c - » ' c S j : j 'O -Q a
o
—\
u_
s
<c

Co

CC>
5o
+

r7<i

XltJ

bo
+

/Li
bl
+

—
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
—
+
+
+

+
—
+
+
+

?<.
+
--—
+
+

?j
+

er\

59
+
+
—_
+
+
+
o

£ t

b4
+

: >

c 5
L
r ' a : - J 33
s
— i —^

Sr\
60
+

Sr}
68
+

r~tf\
70
+

+

+
_
+
+
+
+

+
_
+
+
+
+

+
_

+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

'
_

+

+

- ' +

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
_

+

+

+
_

o

+

+

+

--

--

+

+

_
_

_
_

+

+

+

+

_
„

_
_

_
_

_
_

~
+

+

+

-

-

+
Retail stores composite
Life insurance

+
+

-

_

+
+

+
_

---

+

+

+

+

+ = rising; o - unchanged;- = falling.
•"•Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1 6 and on 77 components thereafter.
94
2




representing an additional 23 of

55

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans

1-month spans

1965

1966

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components
~~3

M
°rj C o>

~
o

§
—»

~5
-^

Jf
<£

£"
co

35
O

38

79

57

45

51

38

4"

" ^ .

D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
». . .
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)

34

>
£
o = <J£

£ > ° ^

?

-?

oj
L

-S
s:

%
O

TO
—i

—

+

+

4

4
4

,

+
4

4

4

4

4-

_

4

*.

45

4
+

4
+

44

4

«
4=

°-

V-^<

,
5
Lu ^ E

Q . *
O Z
rt - u
O
—» u

- > 0 I - - 0
—
_
Q ^ I ? E 5 ^ - i c - x > >o : ^ —
i
c
r o
r
^
_ s < c
3E
—•*
—i

-

4

+

4

53

60

66

62

79

81

87

70

63

92

96

4-

_

_

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

_

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

83

—
4

4-

4-

+
4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

-

-

4

4

4
-

4

_

—
—

4 4 -

4

_

4

„

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

_

4

4

4
—
—

4
—

+

4 - —

4-

444
444

4

—
_

—

4

—

4

4 « .
4
4

4

4

4

4

4

-

_

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

-

4

_

+

Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Franci sco (6)
Seattle (22)

« W >
^ < c ?
• ^ o to J m
^
e
o
O Z : Q

4 - 4

4

-

-0

=
ro

4

4
+

4

4 > 4

4

-

~

4

-

4

-

i.

4

4

4

_

4+

+
4 - +

-

-

4 - 4 -

+
+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

_

-4
4 4 -

4

4

4

4

4

4

^=

4

4-

4*

—

—

4

+

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

- Arising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending, nearest the 22d of the month.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
( e
S e
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions? of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the siac rank for each labor
market area.

56



Section THREE

charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycfes

PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER EXPANSIONS




Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels

57

CHART

MAY 1966

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES

Percent

PERIOD COVERED
_ Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:

Oct. 1949)
-

July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)

Reference trough dates

. July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—

May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Percent
Reference trough dates

23. Industrial

130

materials prices
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost, mfg.

120

110

110

100*3

105

90

W10

100*

70
95
24. New orders, mach.
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

200
190
180
170
160

210
200
190
180
170

150

160
150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100*

100*

90

90

80

80
-12 -6

0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs

-12 -6

0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
QPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.




bed

CHART

MAY 1966

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:

Oct. 1949)

-Reference trough dates

July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—- Moy 1960 to present (Reference trough:

Feb. 1961)

43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)

41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

-O

Percent
55.

Wholesale prices exc.

farm prod, and foods

115

110

100*

95
J

-12-6

0

+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

85,

-12-6

0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparabje months.of previous.expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels,
*Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.




59

CHART

CYCLICAL

COMPARISONS

MAY 1966

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

Percent
160

I H I I I I I I I I1 M I t 1 M M 1 I I I II II1 I I M I I I I I I1 II I I M I I I I I M ) 1 1 M I I I M

PERIOD COVERED
Reference trough dates

—— 4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough: 4th Q. 1949)
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough: 3rd Q. 1954)
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st 0. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
.,

2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st 0. 1961)

Percent

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

67. Bank rates on
short-term business loans

-12 -6

0

+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

-12 -6

0

-1-6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6.
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. *f* Latest data anticipated.
*Reference peak level. ^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.

60



Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle

bed

MAY 1966

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

CHART

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED
Reference trough dates

Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)

95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product

-- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May I960 to present (Reference trough:
I

rm'|

+20

acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1

Feb. 1961)

|m"|mH|mM|,m,|,m,rm|H

*—-Reference trough dates

+15

jo

+10
62. Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.

+5

-5

-10

98.

Change in money supply and time deposits

(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1

-,+10

+8

64. Book value of mfrs:
inventories

+6

+4
• * • ;;
:.*'• •

••'
...-;

V :.•:. ..../*;
v •>-•

1

- 95
J

-12 -6

0

+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

*
.

-V-*

A

7^

\V*;-'
90

+2

-2

iilnnihini

-12-6

0

+6

+12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1
cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. l Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level. ^-Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.




61

TABLE

CYCLICAL

COMPARISONS

MAY 7966

bed

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Month
after
reference
l
trough

Selected series

Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning inFeb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

July
1924

Oct.
1949

June
1938

100.8

64.4
35.2
34.0
47.0

72.1
40.1
39.3
20.5

9B.O
35.0
43.1
98.0

39.6
14.9
177.4
218.1

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
62d

104.. i

61st

61 st
62d

137.8
236.7
156.7

62d

101.6
103.6

(NA)

98.2

98.8
82.2
71.7

127.2

127.4

107.8
156.5

113.1
180.0
338.9
309.8

117.9

130.7

98.7

150.4

82.1

55.1

10.3

80.1

61st
61st

175.2
112.6

128.9
134.3

134.9
185.4

143.0
154.0

84.6

53.4

62.8

69.2

27.0
55.2
(NA)

11.8
90.8
55.0

126.2
110.1

62d

92.3
49.7
(NA)

99.1

50.5
75.9
20.5

60th
62d
62d
62d
62d
62d

17 A.I
105.5
165.9
116.7
165.6
112.3

125.4
101.5
144.5

128.0

17.6
(NA)
33.2
68.1
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
54.5
39.4
(NA)
(NA)

130.8

106.0

41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments 3 . .
.
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) . .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)

62d
62d
62d
60th

123.5
127.4

50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y.
52 Personal income . *
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods

129.0
147.2
124. S
113.6

7 Private nonfarm housing starts.
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
1.6. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing

96.5

101.4

223.3

99.1

95.5

228.7
81.9

112.6

129.7
135.6

234.7
109.9
150.8
104.8

(NA)
72.2

138.6
153.4

(NA)
(NA)

115.6
•KL.5
139.6
H. 5
I

106.7

105.6

109.3

132.8

86.4

-1.5

-3.1

-1.3

(NA)

-19.7

122.9
130.7

109.5
131.7

130.0
141.5

198.6
205.8

71.9
77.3

63.6
(NA)
59.8
57.7

60th
62d
62d
62d

129. 4

119.7
142.6
130.9
121.7

114.1
147.6
132.9
129.1

126.5
151.6
138.1
130.2

(NA)

173.8
HO. 2
136.9

176.3
203.0
141.4

92.4
56.0
76.8
78.1

79.6
51.7
57.2
59.5

62d

103.1

101.2

111.5

109.0

112.5

89.4

67.8

57th
63d

352.5
162.3

97.9

115.7
119.6

120.6
115.2

(NA)
(NA)

78.7
48.4

20.9
20.3

128.2

106.0

123. a

68.1
69.0

112.6
116.7
171.4
141.3

113.8
145.5
269.9
134.5

141.5
154.9
56.2

93.3

103.1
120.8

(NA)

52.4

66.7
(NA)
(NA)
96.4

85.9
(NA)
(NA)
111.0

72.2
(NA)
(NA)
82.0

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

90.5

(NA)

(NA)

361.0

150.8

81.8
(NA)
(NA)

58.0
(NA)
(NA)

101.8

87.7
(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

(NA)

85. 1

120.4
(NA)
(NA)

110.1
(NA)

119.4
64.2

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b Anticipated"4

*

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .

62d

98.8

99.9

61st
61st

60th

128.4
170.0
103.7

111.9
151.4
103.7

60th
60th

-5.3

-0.8

+5.2

-5.2

+8.40

+5.24

-1.58

+5.36

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplusor deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(O)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3'5 .

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47,52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated jn the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for [he reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14,17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginningin June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendixA for the reference peak dates. NA-Not available.
•'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCtE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1 6 , changes are computed in a 3-term mov91
3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computihg the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.

62




bed MAY ,966

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Selected series

Month
after
reference
trough1

Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning inFeb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

1. Average workweek of production workers,

62d

+5.7
+27.5
+173.3
+67.4

+4.7
+14.0
+70.2
+44.2

+1.3
+13.2
+6.7
+42.3

+1.6
+8.7
+60.8
+80.7

+28.9
+101.5
(NA)
(NA)

-7.2
-13.9
-7.8
+144.8

-26.4
-45.2
-44.5
-79.5

+6.6
+63.1
+38.9
-12.5

+6.4
+244.6
(NA)
+151.3

62d

+17.8

+34.7

-15.7

+7.3

-12.6

+265.1

-90.1

-19.1

+122.7

61st

+88.1
+21.2
-13.4

+63.9
+40.7
-29.0

+39.2
+57.0
-34.1

+65.7
+47.3
-41.0

+87.0
-42.3
(NA)

+125.9
-30.3
(NA)

-86.4
-12.5
-40.3

+81.8
+48.7
+9.9

+85.4
+4.9
+21.8

+98.4
+6.5
+47.3
+22.4
+74.7
+15.8

+61.4
+7.1
+65.6
+4.1
+46.9
+33.3

+33.5
+1.4
+85/5
+9.9
+61.9
-12.4

+24.3
-1.9
+120.1
+9.0
+58.1
-4.2

(NA)
(NA)
+15.0
+66.4
NA)
(MA)

(NA)
(NA)
+60.2
+64.0
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
-58.4
-59.6
(NA)
(NA)

+142.9
(NA)
+246.6
-2.5
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
+104.0
+38.7

+17.8
+3.1
+48.1
+41.8

+11.1
+1.7
+43.1
+33.0

+9.3
+0.4
+20.4
+32,7

+15.1
+2.8
+42.0
+46.4

+48.1
(NA)
+190.7
+133.7

+26.2
+5.7
+49.0
+53.5

-33.8
(NA)
-36.4
-42.5

+17.1
(NA)
+50.4
+30.4

+27.3
(NA)
+76.3
+40.3

62d
62d
62d

+31.3
+69.8
+38.9
+40.7

+24.0
+47.2
+30.6
+24.7

+16.7
+45.3
+32.9
+29.7

+28.6
+57.9
+44.8
+30.8

(NA)
+111.1
+128.0
+70.9

+28.3.
+46.8
+56.0
+38.2

-22.2
-52.4
-43.2
-40.5

+29.4
+51.9
+24-8
+15.8

+40.3
+42.0
+43.3
+24.7

62d

+3.2

+1.7

+12.4

+14.8

+19.0

+23.5

-27.1

-6.8

+1.5

+63.5
+74.0

+21.9
+31.9

+21.1
+25.2

+50.7
+44.0

(NA)
(NA)

+359.0
+182.1

-76.2
-76.8

+83.8
+76.5

+98.3
+101.0

60th

-2.2
+29.8
+64.4
+11.7

-6.2
+16.1
+50.1
+20.1

+9.4
+24.8
+65.8
+48.0

+17.7
+55.8
+115.6
+34.0

+36.4
+63.6
-39.7
(NA)

+27.3
+74.0
+152.7
-32.6

-32.3
(NA)
(NA)
+0.2

-16.4
(NA)
(NA)
+26.6

-19.8
(NA)
(NA)
-24.0

60th
60th

+5.2
+2.92

+14.2
-0.82

+4.0
-4.58

+1.1
+4.54

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(MA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

62d

2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space ^*
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted) ....
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. *
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries

61st
61st

61 st
62d

60th
62d
62d
62d
62d
62d

H
(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3.
47 Industrial production. .
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income . .
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods . .
^

62d
62d
62d

60th
60th

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b Anticipated4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .

57th
63d
62d

6lst
61st

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5

(NA)
(NA)

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52,55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trougji month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA=Not available,
•"•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
^Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only.
Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




63




Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1 6
81
December 1867
December 1 7
80
March 1 7
89

Cycle

(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak
June 1857
October 1 6
80
April 1 6
85
June 1 6
89
October 1 7
83
. .March 1 8
82

(X)
18
8
32
"18
65

30
22
46
18
34
36

(X)
48
30
78
36
99

(X)
40
54
^t
50
52
101

May 1 8
85
April 1 8
88
May 1 9
81
June 1 9
84
June 1 9
87
December 1 0
90

March 1 8
87
July 1 9
80
January 1 9
83
December 1 9
85
June 1 9
89
September 1 0
92

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1 0
94
June 1 0
98
January 1 1
92
December 1 1
94
March 1 1
99
July 1921

May 1 0
97
January 1 1
90
January 1 1
93
August 1 1
98
January 1920
May 1923.

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
~2§

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1 2
94
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1 4
95
October 1 4
99

October 1 2
96
August 1929
May 1 3
97
February 1 4
95
November 1 4
98
July 1953

14
13
43
13
8
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
93
45
56

August 1954
April 1958
February 1 6
91

July 1957
May 1 6
90

13
9
9

35
25
(X)

58
44
34

48
34
(X)

4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

X
49
2
54
3

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

4
46
5
48
6

Average , all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1 1 - 9 1
9916

46

42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
6
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
cycles, 1920-1960.
*21 cycles, 1857-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




65

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS

Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... Dec. !60
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial ... ... .„... . . . . . . . . . May '61
........
Jan. '61
Mar. '61
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Oct. '60
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks. . »
Dec. '60
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus... Nov. !60
Dec. ' 0
6
29. New building permits, private housing

4
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. ' 9 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21

Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July »24 Mar. '21
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. «38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. »28 June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.

(NSC)
'58
(NSC)
'57
'58 Mar. '54
'57 Sep. '53
»58 Feb. '54
'58 Mar. '54
»58 Sep. '53

May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
May
Mar.

'58
'58
»58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58

Aug.
Sep.
Apr.
2ndQ
2ndQ
Apr.
Sep.
Jan.

4
'54 Oct. ' 9 June
'54 Oct. »49 June
4
'54 Oct. ' 9 May
'54 4thQ '49 2ndQ
4
'54 2ndQ ' 9 IstQ
4
'54 Juity ' 9 May
4
'54 Oct. ' 9 June
(NSC) May
'54

'61 3rdQ
'61 Apr.
' 61Aug.
'61 2ndQ

'58
'59
'58
'58

IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ

'55
'55
'54
'55

Aug.
Feb.
July
June
June
Apr.
Jan.

'9
4
'9
4
'49
'9
4
'49
'9
4
'49

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

41.
43
47.
49
50.
52
53.
54.

Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Industrial production
GNP in current dollars (Q)
GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
Personal income .
..
......
.....
Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
Sales of retail stores

Feb. ' 1
6
May '61
Feb. '61
4thQ '60
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. !60
Apr. '61

'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.

'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. »22
(NSC)
'33

IstQ
July
May
3rdQ

'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

61.
62.
64.
67.

Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Sep.
June
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans ( ) 4thQ
Q.

4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ

'9
4
'50
'50
'50

3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ

'38
'0
4
'39
'0
4

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series

Hay
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan,
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23 . Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing

May

'59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53

June
Apr.
May
Jul^r
Nov.
July
Nov.

'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58

Mar.
Feb.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.

'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
»55

(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22

(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.

' 6 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25
4
' 6 Dec. «36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25
4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NSC)
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 Mar. »37 Mar. »29 Nov. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
'47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

Aug. '22 Dec. '19
1
Apr. '23 Dec. ' 9
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 July '19
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments. Apr. -60 Mar.
Feb. '60 Mar.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Jan. '60 Feb.
47. Industrial production
2ndQ '60 3rdQ
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
IstQ '60 3rdQ
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
(NSC) Aug.
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.. May '60 Aug.
Apr. '60 Aug.
54. Sales of retail stores

Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC)
(NSC) July '20
Sep. '29

'57 June
'57 July
'57 July
'57 2ndQ
'57 2ndQ
'57 Oct.
'57 July
'57 Mar.

'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53

Sep. '48 July
Jan. »48 JuO^r
July ' 8 May
4
4thQ ' 8 3rdQ
4
4thQ ' 8 3rdQ
4
Oct. ' 8 June
4
Aug. ' 8 May
4
(NSC) Sep.

'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37

'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
»57 Sep.
'57 4thQ

'53
'54
'53
'53

4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ

'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC)
(NSC) Oet. '23 Nov. '20
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

61.
62.
64.
67.

Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Mar.
Sep.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans ( ) 4thQ
Q.

'60
'61
'60
'59

3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ

'48
'9
4
'9
4
'9
4

3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ

NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date*

66



AppendixC.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes

i/c
Monthly series

Period
covered

CI

I

C

T/c

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, worker sf mfg...,.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
30 . Nonagri . • placements , all Industrie s . . .'53-Sep. '65
Jan.
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
4 Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. '53-Sep* '65
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan..'53-Sep. '65

.8
4
.42
4.75
4.47
1.83
1.34
9.20
8.26
17.13 16.59

.19
1.40
1.09
3.42
3.64

2.23
3.20
1.23
2.41
4.55

3
4
2
3
5

.4
7
.4
8
.63
.77
.96

2.08
2.14
2.11
1.95
1.57

1.50 11.69
1.54
9.50
1.52 7.24
1.46
8.94
1.42
6.61

3.75
3.72
3.97
4.69
2.69

4.38
3.33

2.17
1.51

2.02
2.20

2
3

.95
.66

1.69
1.81

1.42
1.58

12.67
8.44

3.97
4.41

24. New orders, mach.' and equip. Indus.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18
3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69
4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
May '59-Sep. '65 7.16
7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.65
3.28
38 Index of net business formation
Jan ' 53-Sep ' 65 .79
.60
13. New business incorporations
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 2.49
2.18
14 Liabilities of business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15. Large business failures
Jan. ? 53-Sep. '65 12.31 12.12

1.52

2.51

3

.,88

1.83

1.60

10.86

3.41

.97 9.41
1.43
3.08
.89 7.91
1.29
2.54
.53 1.15
1.00
2.18
1.70 10.72
7.84
1.54

6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6

1

C )
.84
C1)
.0
8
.66
.8
7
C1)
C1)

1.60
1.88
1.38
1.85
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55

1.48
1.71
1.38
1.52
1.63
1.63
1.39
1.46

12.67
9.50
15.20
13.82
6.61
7.24
8.94
11.69

3.00
3.39
2.63
2.88
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58

.9
4
1.68

.25
1.64

1.92
1.02

3
2

.81
.57

2.20
2.37

1.79
1.58

6.61
9.50

4.55
3.97

5.24

2.84

1.85

3

.6
7

2.37

1.62

7.60

3.57

4.77

1.98

2.41

3

.77

1.88

1.63

8.94

3.49

5.79
1.04

4.00
.73

1.45
1.41

2
2

.95
.99

3.17
2.49

1.85
2.11

8.94
11.69

3.77
3.87

.30
.36
3.92
5.39

.14
.30
3.04
4.55

.26
.20
2.19
2.66

.55
1.50
1.39
1.71

1
2
2
2

.55
.0
8
.72
.1
9

4.90
2.01
2.54
3.41

1.46
1.60
1.60
1.56

16.89
25.83
8.16
7.82

4.90
3.42
3.95
4.00

4.19
3.00

2.19
1.87

3.29
2.30

.67
.81

1
1

.67
.81

4.90
3.10

1.75
1.39

7.60
8.94

4.90
3.10

47, Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02
51. Bank debits, all SI^A's except N.Y
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57
52 . Personal income
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.51
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr..Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 . 4
8
54 Sales of retail stores
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .97
55. Wholesale prices except farm products
and foods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.16

.54
1.50
.26
.52
.83

.76
.64
.4
4
.63
.4
4

.71
2.34
.58
.82
1.88

1
3
1
1
3

.71
.58
.58
.82
.70

3.62
1.65
4.61
2.67
2.08

1.67 11.69
1.50 30.40
1.54 21.71
1.55 13.82
1.57 15.20

3.62
4.29
4.61
2.67
4.84

.09

.13

.71

1

.71

3.90

1.54

3.90

Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .56
!
Jan. 53-Sep. '65 . .53

.0
4
.19

.32
.9
4

1.28
.38

2
1

.72 2.41
.38 10.13

1.57
1.63

3.51
6.61
21.71 10.13

.56
.4
8

.33
.11

.51
.82

.65
.14

1
1

.65 8.94
.14 11.69

1.49
1.63

13.82 8.94
21.71 11.69

4.25
4.42
3.80
3.87
27.42 27.34
13.86 13.59
24.51 24.35

.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
2.94 8.28

6
6
6
6
6

1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63

1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57

8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 22.53 22.53
5.00
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.70
!
Jan. ' 53-Sep. 65 1,65
1.31
!
Jan. 60-Sep. '65 1.44
1.31
2.08
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 2.46
Jul. '61-Sep. '65
.11
.07

1.92 11.72
4.46
1.12
.93 1.41
.53 2.48
1.10
1.90
.65
.11

6
2
2
4
3
1

C1)
C1)
I11)
)
C1
C)
1

1.57
.73 2.53
.98 2.76
• 93 2.27
.87 2.58
.65 10.00

1.48
1.77
2.00
1.62
1.88
1.92

4.95
3.76

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.59
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
Jan ! 53-Sep ' 65 2.49
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.46
26. Buying policy production materials;
commitments 60 days or longer
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 5.27
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 7.47
23. Industrial materials prices
;
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.31
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42.
43.
40
45.

Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Total nonagricultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, total
Jan. ' 53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54-Dec. '65
Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
46 Help-wanted advertising
Tern t ^Q C&r\ t £.t\

8.00

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64 Book value of mfrs. ' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt

Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82.
83
90
91.
92.

Federal cash payments to public
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '55-Dec. '64
Defense Dept oblig. , procurement
Jan. '56-Sep.«65
Defense Department obligations, total.Jul. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Military contract awards in U.S

99 New orders, defense products
114 Treasury bill rate
115 Treasury bond yields
116 . Corporate bond yields
117. Municipal bond yields
118. Mortgage yields

C)

2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83

9.50
2.53
6.61
3.68
8,00 3.68
3.61
5.67
3.66
8.00
5.56 10.00

See footnotes at end of table.



67

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued

i/5
Monthly series

Period
covered

CI

I

C

1/5

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

MCD

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES^-Con.
86.
B7.
81.
94.
96.

3.81
3.04
.15
6.64
1.45

3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54

.94
.80
.13
1.55
1.28

3.77
3.59
.69
4.12
.42

4
4
1
5
1

.91
.86
.69
.87
.42

1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63

1.66
1.62
1.54
1.52
1.57

14.10
10.85
16.89
8.00
10.86

4.06
3.54
5.63
3.15
5.63

Jan.'53-Set). '65
Jan.'53-Sej>.'65
Jan. '53-SeJj). '65
Jan. '53-Sej>. '65
Jan. '53-Sej>. '65
Jan. '53-Set). '65
Jan. '53-SeJ>. '65

.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73

.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23

.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22

1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01

2
3
2
3
3
3
2

.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47

3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38

1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37

21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
13.82

4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4,84
5.21

Period
covered

CI

I

C

1/5

Exports, excluding military aid
Jan. '53-Octj. '64
General imports
Jan. '53-OctL '64
Consumer prices
Jan.'53-Sep.'65
Construction contracts, value
Jan.'53-Sej!. '65
Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan.'53-SeJ.'65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

123 . Canada
122. United Kingdom
121 , OEGD European countries
125 . West Germany
126 . France
127. Italy
128. Japan

i/c
Quarterly series

QCD

for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

QCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
IS,
22.

New capital appropriations, mfg
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate , all industries

IQ'53--II])Q'65 10.36
IQf53-II]JQ'65 5.60
IQ'53-II]|Q'65 6.03

4.70
3.09
3.59

7.69
4.29
3.80

.61
.72
.95

1
1
1

.61
.72
.95

2.94
3.33
2.38

1.32
1.32
1.35

3.33
5.00
4.17

2.94
3.33
2.38

IQ'53-II]lQI65

4.34

2.87

3.11

.92

1

.92

2.38

1.25

5.00

2.38

IQ'53-IafQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65

1.23
1.47
1.30

.38
.35
.31

1.09
1.39
1.26

.35
.25
.25

1
1
1

.35 3.33
.25 5.56
.25 10.00

1.28 5.56 3.33
5.56
1.22
7.14
1.16 10.00 10.00

IQ'53-IIf[Q'65

3.21

.77

2.99

.26

1

.26

5.56

1.47

5.56

5.56

IQ»53-IIttQ'65

.84

.42

.67

.62

1

.62

2.94

1.22

5.56

2.94

IQ'53-IIJIQ'65

1.99

.96

1.80

.54

1

.54

2.38

1.47

3.33

2.38

IQ'53-I]]IQt65 11.47
IQ'53-qiQ'65 4.30
IQ153-I|IQ'65 6.63

7.37
2.47
1.20

7.95
3.27
6.38

.93
.75
.19

1
1
1

.93
.75
.19

2.38
2.08
4.17

1.16
1.25
1.32

3.85
4.17
8.33

2.38
2.08
4.17

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50, GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110. Total private "borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg,

computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Burecu of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular!component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical

Digitized for 68
FRASER


component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb,-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the

irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month _spans and
for spans of the period of MOD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run11 (ADR) is another .measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD

curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
.debits, all SMSA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29'for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every A- months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes

Monthly series

31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories

Period
covered

Unit of
me asure

CI

I

C

Jan.r53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..

3.60
3.47
.74
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
:
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
do
.29
1.51 1.44
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.6
4
.48
.13
04. Federal cash surplus or deficit..
Jan. '55-Dec. '64 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 4.34
4.22
.82
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46.86
f
85 . Change in money supply
Jan. '53-Sep. 65 Ann. rate,
percent. . . 3.11 3.12
[
.29
do
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan.' 53-Sep. '65
.29
2.52 2.53
112. Change in business loans
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
1.35
bil. dol.. 1.39
.35
.79
.31
.87
113. Change in consumer installment debt... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 ....do
88. Merchandise trade balance
:Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28

Quarterly series

21. Change in business inventories, all
industries

Period
covered

IQ'53-IIIQ'65

95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
89a U.S. balance of payments (liquidity).. IQ'53-IIIQ'65

Unit of
measure

1

C

4.70

5 .98 1.48 1.45

8.94

2.79

4.97
3.51

6 C1) 1.67 1.50
4 .98 1.69 1.62

6.08
7.60

3.00
3.10

5.16
1.68

5 .98 1.59 1.43 7.44 2.74
3 .68 2.03 1.60 13.13 3.49

10.88
8.78
3.87
2.56
3.23

I/c

Ann. rate,
1.44 1.00
bil. dol.. 2.28 1.43
1.35
1.78
2.49
.76
do
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04

Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in




CI

I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C MCD MCD
C MCD
span CI I

6
1.37
6 (*) 1.43
^
5 .95 1.62
3 .92 1.65
3 .97 1.82

1.37 9.50
1.43 10.13

2.67
2.41

1.55 6.64
1.49 10.13
1.61 9.42

2.56
3.13
2.64

I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
QCD for
QCD
C QCD
span CI I

2 .46 1.79 1.35 4.55
1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85
2 .45 1.67 1.25' 3.13

2.88
2.17
2.72

the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.

69

Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1965 TO JUNE 1966)
1965

1966

Qo-K»-i a, o

May

June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

4. Temporary layoff, all industries
77.6 73 8
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
82.3 83.8
103.1 105,8
13. New business incorporations1
95.7 106, 6
14. Liabilities of business failures
15.
17.
18.
30.
37.

Large business failures,
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories

55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg...
81. Consumer prices
82, Federal cash payments to public1
83. Federal cash receipts from public3...

89.9

Jan.

Feb. Mar. Apr.

92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1

92.6

May Jun©

73.3

81.9

107.2 140.3 86.9

90.4

105 3 83.9 77.4
102.6 95.0 93.1
100.7 104.7 96.7

82.6
88.6 104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1
94.9 86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101,6 102.6 105.2
95.8 107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1

99.5 102.3 86.3 95,7 91.3 94.6 95.0 83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106,7 100.8 101.6
101.3 102.5 96.3 98.8 101.8 103.1 100.4 97.9 98.0 99.5 100.3 100.8 101.1 1,02.0
.. #
106.2
96.3
100.5
96.9
106.3
107.4 111.3 102.4 112.2 121.8 111.7 97.6 82.1 79.3 76.7 92.8 102.1 110.7 109.8
107.1

99.0

94.8

92.9

92.7

90.2

88.6

92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9 101.6

100.0
98.6
99.7
98 4
1897.

99.9
99.9 99.9
97.7 104.1 101.2
99.9 100.2 100.0
104 0 97 0 114 2
4431. -4573. 1313.

99.8 100.0
98.3 97.0
100,1 100.1
96 9 101 9
2181. ^ 6 .
99

100.0
99.5
100.0
101 4
165.

100.1 100.1
102.6 102.2
100.0 100.0
105 8 91 4
655. -2964.

90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement. . . .
93.8
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
88 6
92. Military contract awards in U.S
90 2
112. Change in business loans*
100 0
128. Japan, industrial production index... 100.1

179.9
87.4 87.1
143 1 115 2 92 4
171 9 72 8 88 4
99 6 98 9 98 5
99.8 100.0 96.4

93.2
99 7
103 9
99 3
99.5

100.0
106 3
101 1
99 9
99.6

96.4
91 7
85 4
101 3
98.8

99.2
96 1
90 5
101 3
102.3

82.8
94 4
95 5
100 4
94.0

100. 0 100.0 100,0
100.5 99,5 98.9
99 9 99 9 99 9
94 4 94 1 97 8
1315. 2258. -1689.

99.9
99.9
98.0
98.6
99.9
99.8
100 3 104 7
1897. 4431.

95.6
96 1
84 3
100 5
99.4

95.7 179.0
91 4 142 2
90 1 174 7
inn ? 99 8
99.9 100.6

83.4 99.2
82 0 97 5
87 2 113 8
QQ ^ 100 5
100.7 108.2

NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Ceneus. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data
ally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
program.
^Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.

70




from the application of these
trading-day factors.
to yield the monthly seasonMethod II seasonal adjustment

Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

Jan.
MayOct.
Aug.
May

1920-July
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937- June

1921
1924
1927
1933
1938

Feb . 1945-Oct . 19454
Nov . 1948-Oct . 1949
July 1953-Aug . 19545
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.

Reference peak to reference trough

50. GNP 49. GNP
in 1958 in curdollars rent
dollars
(Q)1

4 . Em1
ployees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index
of industrial
production

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7

-5.6
-6.5
-3.6

51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York

52. Personal
income

54. Sales
of retail
stores

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3

+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4

-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-.
47
0.0
+0.2
+0.9

+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7

+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.6

-16.0

-1.9

-2.8

-3.1

-2.0

-2.2

-16.0
-8.8

-2.1
-1.9

-2.8
-1.3

-3.6
-0.8

-2.4
+0.1

-2.6
-1.4

1

(Q)

Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak

43. Unemployment rate, total

47. Index
of industrial
production

50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
1

(Q)

4 . GNP
9
in current
dollars
()
Q1

51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York

Rate at
peak

Rate at
trough

2

2

2

4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2

2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

2

1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.8

+3.4

3.5

7.1

+3.6
+3.4

3.9
40
.

7.6
7.1

3

43. Unemployment rate, total

Reference trough to reference peak

4 . Em1
ployees
in nonagri. establishments

Change
in rate,
peak to
trough

52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail
sonal
stores
income

Change
in rate,
trough
to peak

2

Rate at
trough

Rate at
peak

2

2

1921-May
1924-Oct.
1927-Aug.
1933-May
1938-Feb.

1923
1926
1929
1937
144
95

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4

-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

Oct . 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug . 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May

1948
19535
1957
1960

+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2

+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4

+34,9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1

+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3

+63.8
+25.6
+20.3
+11.9

+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
74
.

+17.5

+35.2

+12.3

+27.5

+33.8

+26.7

+20.5

-3.7

7.1

3.3

+13.0
+13.0

+26.6
+23.6

+12.1
+11.6

+20.9
+28.6

+24.4
+39.0

+21.3
+25.3

+16.0
+23.0

-2.6
-2.0

$.3
6.8

3.7
3.9

July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June

5
Median:
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1 4 . .
95.

2

11.9
2
5,5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

3.2
1.9
3
3.2
11.2
1.1
2

2

3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 4 , and 52), the figure for the
7
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the
3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For jjarlier"dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
Vorld War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
1

Source:

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




71

Appendix F .^HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4, Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Dec.

Oct.

Nov.

38.2
42.3
41.5
69.6
68.3
75.0
69.7
70.0
76.8
88.3
92.0
93.3
92.7
107.9
113.8

43.8
42.5
41.2
67.9
76.0
74.2
55.1
71.1
79.0
77.8
92.9
96.9
100.9
106.3
118.7

44.2
43.4
44.9
64.4
86.7
66,2
68.2
71.4
86.4
81. 8
96.1
91.9
95.7
105.3
115.0

43.9
43.4
49.8
63.1
75.0
70.0
64.3
76.5
78.0
78.2
79.2
94.0
101.7
101,4
110.6

12.2

75.9
80.7
82.2
96.6
101.1
102.1
108.9

+1.8
+0.6
+7.3
-4.2
-2.0
-1.7
+0.4
+5.4
-1.0
+0.4
-13.7
-2.9
+0.8
-4.9
-8.1

-10.5
-1.1
-13.9
+4.7
+5.4
-3.2
-6.1

82. Federal cash payments to the public (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962

35.6
39.5
43.1
44.3
72.1
69.4
71.2
72.6
72.2
77.6
81.0
99.9
92.9
94.9
109.7

34.3
40.8
45.7
46.6
68.8
77.6
67.7
68.7
71.1
88.2
83.3
97.8
93.4
98.3
113.3

36.5
42.1
44.2
48.3
71.5
78.4
69.7
75.1
72.2
83.7
83.4
90.6
92.5
104.4
107.6

30.5
40.1
44.3
51.0
74.0
80.5
66.5
73.5
72.9
85.3
82.6
96.1
95.8
106.4
108.8

31.2
44.3
41.5
59.3
66.1
83.8
71.3
78.8
71.0
80.5
85.2
97.7
95.2
108.5
109.1

39.4
43.7
39.3
52.9
70.3
89.7
70.6
65.4
75.9
85.6
87.8
93.8
92.5
109.4
112.0

34.4
41.0
41.8
63.6
60.7
77.7
70.1
74.1
72.3
85.0
95.2
97.0
95,3
97.8
113.0

36.9
44.8
36.0
63.8
77.6
76.3
86.5
74.9
72.8
83.1
87.9
96.2
94.0
112.3
107.7

37.9
46.5
39.4
63.8
71.4
77.7
69.4
75.1
73.3
82.9
98.2
94.9
94.9
103.3
112.9

83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Qtrly. or monthly at ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962

73.*6
76.8
81.4
82.9
81.2
92.3
93.7
100.3

47.2
41.3
38.6
56.9
68.5
70.9
73.0
64.2
74.9
81.1
81.9
83.7
95.2
93.6
100.0

71 !9
88.0
87.3
81.3
77.7
96.5
91.3
99.3

7oii
79.8
85.2
74.6
83.5
99.5
97.2
105.7

44.8
37.9
39.0
58.6
76.0
70.7
71.2
69.7
78.9
84.7
80.7
84.9
101.8
99.3
109.1

72^8
84.3
86.9
85.8
82.7
95.2
98.8
105.0

7li<5
87.7
84.8
84.9
92.2
96.6
93.5
111.3

43.1
43.4
45,1
61.1
68.5
70.1
62.9
76.0
76.0
84.0
88.0
92.3
102.8
101.8
108.6

6ai6
74.0
85.3
80.7
94.8
101.0
102.2
109.3

72.'6
85.2
88.6
84.0
91.1
93.2
100.1
107.6

84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Qtrly. or monthly at ann. rate, bil. dol.]

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962

+11.8
+0.5

-5. a

+iio
+4.6
+3.8
+1.9
-18.7
-0.6
-1.2
-9.4

72



+10.5
-2.3
-4.2
+3.5
-4.5
+3.8
-7.1
-1.4
-14.1
+1.8
•-4.7
-13.3

-3i2
+15.8
+3.6
-2.1
-12.9
+4.0
-13.1
-8.3

-3^4
+6.9
-0.1
-8 0
-12.6
+3.7
-9.2
-3.1

+11.1
-4.8
-2.7
+4.2
+5.9
-14.0
+1.7
-9.1
+7.9
+4.2
-4.5
-12.8
+6.6
-9.2
0.0

+7.4
+8.4
+1.3
-2.0
-11.1
+2.7

-10.6
-7.0

-2^5
+15.4
-0.2
-10.3
/ A
+1.3
-4.3
-1.7

+6.7
-0.7
+6.1
-2.7
-1.4
-7.1
-12.4
+1.1
+3.2
+0.9
+0.1
-3.9
+8.8
-10.5
+0.9

-7.1
+0.7
+2.4
-17.5
-0.1
+6.1
-1.1
-3.6

+aio
+8.4
+0.3
-8.0
-2.2
+0.5
-7.8
-6.2

+6 is

INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Timing
classification

Charts

1

2

Tables

3

1

2

4

5

Appendixes

6

7

B

C

D

F

E

Page

G
Issue

Page

Issue

t. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg..
2 Accession rate manufacturing •
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males

L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C

10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15

C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C

16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17

L
L
L
L
L
L
U
L
L
L
Lg
U
U
U

1
1
1
1
12
12
1
1
1
1
22
1
1
1
1
1
1
18
20
22
22

L
L

14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14

59

59

8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28

8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

62
62

63
63

66

62

63

66

62

63

62

63

66

29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29

62
62
62
62

63
63
63
63

62

63

66
66
66
66
66
66

62

63

8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9

25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34

62
62

63
63

66

62
62
62

63
63
63

66

62

63

66

62

63

66

8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8

27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27

8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8

27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26

67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67

'66
' 66
'64
'63
'66
'66
'66
'63
' 63
'64
'66
'66

Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar.

'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
'66
'65
'65

74
74
74
*66
65
*66

June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.

' 65
' 65
' 65
'63
'64
'63

68
65
72
66
68

70
70

Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.

71
71
71
71

70

' 72
72
*66
*66
71 72
71
72
*66
*66
*66
71 71
• 71

Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.

'64
'64
'65
' 64
'64

*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66

Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.

'63
'65
'64
' 64
' 64
!
64
' 63
' 64
'64

*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74

Jan.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Sept.

'64
'64
'64
»64
'65
'65
'65
'65
r
64
'65

II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE

49 GNP in current dol lars • • *
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
47. Industrial production
52 Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg. constr. ....
54 Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y

60
60
59

68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67

71
71

71
71
70
72
72
72
72
72

III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

29. New building permits, private housing
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment*
11 New capital appropriations mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .
I l Corporate gross savings
l
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-.

58

60

••
66

•*

67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68

70

4 .

73

July '64

IV. INVENTORIES

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31. Change mfg. and trade inventories.
64 Manufacturers' inventories, total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65 Mfrs ' inventories finished goods.
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .

?
f
L
L

60

62

63

66

••

•*

69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67

70

V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS

23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP* . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .

L
L
C
U
j-g
Lg
L
L
L

14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13

••

58
58
59
61
58

62
62
62

63
63
63

66
66

62

63

66

62
62

63
63

••
66

67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68

70
70
70
70
70

•*

*.

L - leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.




73

SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Timing
classification

Charts|

1

2

Appendixes

Tables
3

1

2

4

5

6

7

B

C

D

G

F

E

Page

Issue

Page

Issue

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT

U
85. Change in money supply .... *
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93 Free reserves
*
66. Consumer installment debt
113. Change, consumer installment debt
U
112. Change in business loans
U
110. Total private borrowing

20
20
20
18
20
20
20

U
114 Treasury bill rate
U
115 Treasury bond yields
U
116 Corporate bond yields
U
117 Municipal bond yields
U
118 Mortgage yields
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Lg
14. Liabilities of business failures
L
15 Large business failures

21
21
21
Cl
21
18
12
12

V

61

61

9
9
9
9
9
9
9

32
32
32
30
33
32
32

9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8

33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26

62
62

69
69
69
67
69
69
68

63
63

62
62

63
63

66

67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67

73
74
66
70
71
71
72

July
July
July
July
July
Aug .
Nov.
Mar.

'64
' 64
'64
' 64
' 64
' 64
'63
'64

71
72
72
74

Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July

'66
'66
'66
'65

72
72
72
72
70
70
70
66

May
May
May
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.

' 66
< 66
' 66
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64

66
67
67
67
67
68
68

70
70

'65
'65
'64
' 64
'64 73
' 64 73
'65 73

71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66

70

Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug .
July
July
Nov.

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Get.

'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64

74
74
74
74
74

July
July
July

'64
' 64
' 64

July
July
July
July
July

' 64
'64
'64
'64
f
64

VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

86
87.
88.
89

U
U
U
U

22
22
22
22

9
9
9
9

33
34
34
34

U
U
U
.U
U
U
U
U

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32

U
production QECD...
production, United Kingdom. . . . U
U
production Canada
U
production West Germany
U
production, France
U
production Italy
U
production, Japan

23
23
23
23
23
23
23

Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of payments

68
68
69
69

.*

VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

83 Federal cash receipts from public
82. Federal cash payments to public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account .
91. Defense Department obligations, total —
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92. Military contract awards in U,S
99 New orders defense products

61

•.

67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67

..
62

63

70
70

••

70
70
70

IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

121
122.
123.
125
126.
127.
128.

Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial

*.

35
35
35
35
35
35
35

68
68
68
68
68
68
68

..

70

.*

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Dl. Average workweek

1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter. .

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

1-month. .
9-month. .
Industrial materials prices .... 1-month. .
9-month..
Profits, mfg
1-quarter. .
Net sales, mfrs
4-quarter. .
New orders
4-quarter. .

39
. • 39
• • 39
39
39
41
41

D5. Initial claims
D6. New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
D19. Stock prices
D23.
D34.
D35.
D36.

D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month..
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month..
D48. Freight carloadings
„ . 4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month..
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. . ..

40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41

42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
••

.•

46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9

72
68
73
73
72
69
73
73

Mar.
Oct.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.

'65
'64
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65

43
43
43
43
43
45
45

55
55
48-9
48-9

72
69
72
73
69
70
70

Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.

'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64

44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45

50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3

72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69

Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.

'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64

48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5

••

••

••

••

••

L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = uncl$ ssified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.


74


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Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. " M" indicates monthly series "Q* indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which a series is listed in the Finding Guide, Thus, "(M,ll)" indicates a monthly
series listed in group II. The general classification of sejies follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were
included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators,

30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M, IV), —Depart-

ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M, I). --Department Of Labor,

Bureau of Labor Statistics

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV).--ChicagO Purchasing

*2. Accession rate, manufacturing {M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M, IV). -National AsSOCJa-

tion of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
4, Number of persons on temporary .layoff, all industries (M,l).-Department Of Labor, Bu-

reau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M, I). —De-

partment of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,lll).--Department Of

*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll)»--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present(M, I). -Department Of Labor, Bureau

Commerce, Bureau of the Census

of Labor Statistics

*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M,111).-Department of Commerce, Bureau

of the Census

Ml.

Number of employees in nonogriculturol establishments (M,I).-Department Of Labor,

Bureau of Labor Statistics

*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space

(M,lll).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,(), -Department Of Labor, Bu-

reau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M, III). -Department Of Commerce, Bureau

*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

of the Census, and F. W, Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M, I). --Department Of

Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q, 111). —Na-

tional Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M, I). -National Industrial Conference

13. Number of new business incorporations (M,lll).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.

*47, Index of industrial production (M,ll).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).-Dun and Bradstreet, !nc,; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of

$100,000 and over

Board

*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of
of Business Economics
*50 Gross notional product in 1958 dollars (Q,lO.-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics

(M,Vt)---Dun

and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16t Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York (224 SMSA's)

(M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M, II).— Department Of COfTI-

T7. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V). --Department Of Commerce,

Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).~

Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census

*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV).--

Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP

component) (Q,lV).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).--

merce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M,V).-

Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q, 111). -Department Of Com-

merce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).~

Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,v).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M, III). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).--Department

of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer

(M,lV),--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,III). -De-

partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagriculturol placements, all industries (M, I). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census



*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries(EOM, IV ).— Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing indus-

tries (EOM,lv).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,vi ).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure
for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ,VI).-Board Of Governors Of

the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in

1958 dollars) (Q,v).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division
Continued on reverse

1

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