Full text of Business Conditions Digest : May 1964
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MAY 1964
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH APRIL
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
Developments
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director
Morris H. Han sen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
MAY 1964
Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN
DATA THROUGH APRIL
This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis
Division under the direction of Julius Shlskin, Chief, and Samuel
L. Brown, Assistant Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are-
Series ESI No. 64-5
Feliks Tamm-Computation of business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young-Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Eugene Rossidivito-Specifications for computer processing,
Betty Tunstall-Collection and compilation of basic data.
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports . A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for around the 22nd of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc. These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 31, change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total, has been revised in tables 1 and 2 and chart 1 for period I960
to date. This revision reflects the addition of farm
products and raw materials to the wholesale segment for the period beginning January 1948 and revised seasonal factors for this segment for the
period beginning January I960. Revised data for
the period prior to I960 will be published in a subsequent issue of this report.
2. The diffusion index for initial claims for
unemployment insurance, State programs ( D S ) ,
has been revised back to January 1963, inclusive,
to reflect a new seasonal adjustment of components.
3. A 6-term moving average is shown in chart
1 for each of the series on money supply (series 85
and 98). Seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
for the most recent years to provide an indication
of the variation about this moving average.
4. Appendix F (formerly appendix G) has been
expanded to include historical data for 6 series
each month. To provide more room in this issue
for this expansion, the number of series covered in
chart 5, "Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns,"
has been reduced and the direction of change table
for average hours worked per week has been eliminated. The following series are included in appendix F this month: Series 3, 6, 11, Dl, D6, and
D23.
5. An article, "Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method, 11 by Allan Young, is included in this
report, pages 59-64. It is a summary of the technique used at the Census Bureau to adjust monthly
series for variations arising from the number of
trading or working days in the month. This technique will be included in a new variant of the Census Method II seasonal-adjustment program ( X-11)
to be released later this year.
The June issue of Business Cycle Developments is
scheduled for release on June 23.
ii
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
I
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
*
Charts
How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Table 1.—Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most
Recent Months
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present
Table 2. —Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: July I960 to Present
6
8
22
Analytical Measures
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent
Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks . *. *
Chart 2. —Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present
Chart 3. —Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Major Economic Activities: July I960
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing
Activities: July I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified Time
Spans and Percent of Series Rising: January 1963 to Present
32
33
35
36
39
40
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5.—Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent
Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific
Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough
Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
56
57
58
Technical Papers and Background Materials
Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method
59
Appendixes
(Standard appendixes A to E are omitted from this issue)
Appendix F. —Historical Data for Selected Series
65
Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables , and Appendixes
67
iii
Technical Papers
and
Background Materials
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time
to time. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1. —Summary Description o| the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in the September
1963 issue) , A new version of this program is scheduled to be released in
the fall. Announcement will be made at that time „
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown (published as ap~
pendix H in the September 1963 issue) , This paper explains what is known
about business cycle in<Ucators, the problems of using them, and the research needed to improve their usefulness. It was presented at the 34th
session of the International Statistical Institute in Ottawa, Canada, on August
24, 1963.
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method (published in this issue).
A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge, from the
Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 20233.
IV
Descriptions
ind
Procedures
lusiness Cycle Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
i record of the typical sequence of changes in ecolomic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
ead, those that usually move with, and those that
isually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
tconomic activity. The series have been grouped,
n accordance with the NBER classification, as
'leading, 11 "roughly coincident," or "lagging" inlicators. In addition, other series are included in
his report for a more complete coverage of the
lational economy.
The series are described as
bllows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
isually reach peaks or troughs before those in agjregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
Lfrie group of these series pertains to activities in
he labor market, another to orders and contracts,
und so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators .—About 15
leries are direct measures of aggregate economic
tctivity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such
is new plant and equipment expenditures and manuacturers 1 inventories, usually have reached turnng points after they were reached in aggregate
sconomic activity, and for this reason, they are
iesignated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
ttiese series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
leficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
Reasons, such as irregularity in tinning. Finally,
Industrial production indexes for several countries
Irhichhave important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2) .—Over
50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with business cycle significance are included.
Together they provide a broad view of current and
prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for making an economic
interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6). —
These measures aid in forming a judgment of the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle
and the extent of current changes in different parts
of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and places,
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when- aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal and Related Statistical
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are
as follows: 4, 5, <?, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30,
37, 55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, and 128.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and
97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, and series 9 and 10 which are based on
Descriptions and Procedures
unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they
are published.
Method Iladjusts for changes inaverage cUmatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
the year. Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
made for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel. Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
may be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations.
MGD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation).
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income. MCD moving averages are shown
for some series in chart 1. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for years
beginning with 1958.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historica
series and shown in appendix C. MCD is usuall
computed for a fairly long period, one coverin
both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pac
of change varies from phase to phase of the busi
ness cycle, such a measure will not provide a
accurate estimate of the span over which to esti
mate cyclically significant changes at all times
Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is like!
to be too high during the early stages of recover
when expansion has usually been rapid and too lo\
during the late stages of expansion when the rate o
advance has usually been small. This limitation
should also be borne in mind when making use c
this measure. 2
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Three kinds of analytical measures are pre
sented—diffusion indexes, timing distributions, an
direction-of-change tables. These measures ai
in forming a judgment of the magnitude of curren
changes compared to previous changes, the immi
nence of a turning point in the business cycle, an
the extent of current changes in different parts c
the economy. They also point to developments i:
particular industries and places.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simpl
summary measures of groups of economic series
They express, for a given group, the percent of th
series which has risen over given intervals of time
Their turning points tend to lead the turning point
of the aggregate and they measure how widesprea
a business change is. They vary between the limit
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all com
ponents falling). Widespread increases are ofte:
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are groupe
according to the timing classification of the NBER
For monthly series, comparisons are made ove
1-month intervals (January-February, February
March, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-mont
intervals depending upon the irregularity of th
series. The indexes based on 1-month interval
are more "current" but they are also more irregu
lar than the 3- or 5-month indexes (see chart 2)
Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarte
intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D
designate diffusion indexes. When one of thes
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator »erie
number, it means that the diffusion index has bee:
^-Various terms are used to describe the phase
of the business cycle. In this report both "con
traction" and "recession" are used to describ
the declining phase. No difference in. meaning i
intended.
2
For a more complete description of MCD and it
use in studying economic series, see Businea
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; Na
tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Fore
casting," by Julius Shi skin (Princeton Universit
Press: I960.
Descriptions and Procedures
omputed from components of the indicator series;
or example, the diffusion index numbered "D6M is
omputed from components of series number 6.
)iffusion indexes not computed from basic series
omponents are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
n 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen
f these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the
Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indiators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
nd D58) . Indexes for these indicators show comarisons for components over 1-month and either
- or 5-month spans. The 11 other diffusion indexes
re based on 7 indicators closely related to the
bove 9 indicators. They include two indexes on
apital appropriations ( 6 0 2 companies and 15 inustries)—NBER indexes based on data from the
rational Industrial Conference Board; the First
rational City Bank of New York index based on
uarterly profit reports (700 companies); and 8
[BER diffusion indexes — actual and anticipated—
?r the following: Manufacturers' sales (800 comanies) and new orders (400 companies), based on
ata from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings
19 commodity groups), based on data from the
Association of American Railroads; and new plant
nd equipment expenditures (16 industries), based
n data from the Office of Business Economics and
ne Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
how what proportion of business enterprises (or
idustries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comarisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
ag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
urrent data are often highly irregular and require
areful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions . —Distributions of current
highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evience for a prospective business cycle turning
oint.
Each month a timing distribution is contructed which shows the number of series reachng high values during each month of the expansion,
he timing distribution is summarized by showing
le number of series reaching new highs and the
ercent currently high for each of several recent
icnths (see table 3) . Similar distributions of
lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpretng the distribution of current highs, such distribuions are also shown for leading and coincident
eries as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
he peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
xpansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
yclical phase, the data for the principal business
ycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
usiness cycle expansion, the high value for each
eries is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
eries with negative conformity to the business
ycle, low values are taken during expansions and
igh values during contractions.) If the values for
or more months are equal, the latest date is
iken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 2) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter n'L!l to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks . Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation an,d that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ( ! I + M for rising,
M
o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes.
These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- or
5-month spans.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured from the May I960 reference peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is be-
Descriptions and Procedures
yond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
the current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of th£ level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this re$pect,
with earlier expansions .
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough date's (table 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the trough level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spans from previous reference peaks . This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
These comparisons wiU be
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) . Specific
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These
comparisons differ from those shown for reference
cycles in that they show the status only up to the
specific peak date. For some series past specific
expansions were shorter than the current one and,
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employmen
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, tota
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Productioi
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight th
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1, 2, and 3 ) . These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of eacl
series against the background of expansions an<
recessions in general business activity from 194;
to the current month. Shaded areas on the chart
indicate periods of business cycle recession be
tween business cycle peak dates (beginnings o
shaded areas) and business cycle trough datei
(ends of shaded areas). The shading for a new re
cession will be entered only after a trough has beei
designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scale
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of th.
various series. The scale selected for each scrie;
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates o
change of various series can be compared wit]
each other only where scales are identical. See th>
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using thes<
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—Thes
charts compare the performance of each serie
during the current expansion with its performanc<
during the expansion phase of previous busines
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in chart
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined a
the strategic point of the business cycle: For ex
pansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and spe
cific trough (chart 5) . Thus these charts facilitat
judgements on the vigor of the current expansion
relative to cyclical movements during the corre
spending expansions of previous cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current busi
ness or reference cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for aggre
gate economic activity) with moveinents over th
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current spe
cific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series
with the movements over the corresponding phase
of previous specific cycles in that series. In botl
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, th>
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined an<
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs ar<
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons o
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed description!
of these comparisons.
Descriptions and Procedures
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated
Solid tine indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
tabte-2 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexe
charts 2 and 3,)
Arab)c number Indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
Broken lines indicate table-2
ata for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
PgraUel lines indicate a break
in co,ntinuity--e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
("I" = first quarter)
ee back cover for complete
titles and sources of
line indicates anticipated
61. Bus. expend., new plant
and equip, (bii. d t L ) — Q
Sol I d I i ne with quarterly
lotting
"
quarterly data
Vgrjousirrotio andarithmetic scq_les_
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. **Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-V is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semi logarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Certain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data foi
MCD 5-term moving averages and 2H months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS
Basic data1
Series
Unit of
measure
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, Hours p$r
manufacturing.
prod. wkr...
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
Per 100 empl.
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
Thous
3 . Layoff rate , manufacturing *
Per 100 empl.
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff,
all industries ... *
Thous
5. Avg. weekly initial claims for unemploy..do
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
Bil. dol,....
Jan.
1964
40.1
Feb.
1964
Percent change2
Apr.
1964
Mar.
1964
Avg.
Jan*
change, to
Feb.
195319633
1964
Feb.
to
Mar.
1964
+0.2
-5.0
-2.8
0.0
Mar.
to
Apr.
1964
3-7
536
1.8
40.6
r4.0
535
1.7
40.7
P3.8
520
pl.7
p40.6
NA
522
NA
123
123
91
122
17.8
289
264
273
260
5O
+8.7
-3.4
+4.8
19.74 r!9.54 rl9.32 P20.64
3.8
-1.0
.1.1
+6.8
0.5
4.9
1.8
9.5
+1,2
+8.1
-0.2
+5.6
-0,2
NA
+0.4
NA
0.0 +26.0 -34.1
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
9« Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
..do.........
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space.
3.62
r3.45
r3.45
P3.55
4.5
-4.?
0.0
+2.9
51.64
52.47
48.17
NA
9.7
+1.6
-8.2
NA
Bil. dol.....
4.37
r4.l6
p4.09
NA
4.9
-4.8
-1,7
NA
11,6
NA
P1526
7-3
-4.4
+1-7
-7.0
r!22.5 pllO.5
3.8
+6.9
-1.4
-9.8
2
+4
2.7 ..0.7 -0.4
16.9 -39-0 +12.0
NA
+8.2
NA
Ann. rate,
thous
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
started.
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local building permits....
12. Net change in business population,operating businesses ^ *
13. Number of new business incorporations....
14. Current liabilities of business failures.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over
16. Corporate profits after taxes*
17.
18.
22.
19.
21.
31.
1688
rl6l3
1957-59=100..
116.3
124,3
Number. ......
Mil. dol.....
16193 16086 16023
87.70 121.8? 107.25
rl640
+16
NA
98.50
41
42
46
No. per week.
37
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
31.1
Price per unit of labor cost index, mfg.. 1957-59=100-. r!02.0 rl01.9 rl01.3 P102.5
Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations*.. Cents
NA
Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income
originating, corporate, all industries*.
plO.6
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks* 1941-43-10.. . 76^5 77.39 78.80 79.94
Change in bus. inventories, farm and 5 Ann. rate,
nonfarra, after valuation adjustment.*
bil. dol....
r+2.1
Change in book value of manufacturing
NA
r+5,1 r-0.7 p+1.3
13.1
-2.4 +11,9
6.3
0.7
+8.7
-0.1
6.8
NA
i\l
+8.2
+1.2
2.5
-3.3
3.6
1.5
-24.3
-0.6
+1,2
+1.8
+1.4
-5.8
+2.0
NA
+1.4
+0.3
NA
20, Change in book value of mfrs. ' inven..do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Percent...,*.
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer*.. . .do
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
,,do
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled 5
Bil. do
orders, durable goods industries
23, Index of industrial materials prices*.... 1957-59=100..
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
Thous
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor
..do
Percent
4-5* Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
newspapers
47. Index of industrial production
..do
1957-59«100,.
. 1957-59*100..
-1.9
r-0.5
p-0.2
40
50
5*
55
6.8 +25,0
+8.0
+1.9
53
5*
56
59
5.8
+1,9
+3.7
+5.4
55
54
60
60
7.7
.1.8
+11,1
0,0
NA
+0.40 r+0.57 r+0.16 p+1.21
98.5
98.5
98.9 102.4
0.48 +0.17 -0.41 +1.05
0.0 +0.4 +3.5
1.3
57850 r58!83 r58268 P58471
0.3
+0.6
+0.1
+0.3
64631
5-6
3.2
65035
5.4
3.0
65207
5.*
2.9
65811
5*
2.9
0.4
4.2
6.0
+0.6
+3.6
+6.2
+0.3
0,0
+3-3
+0.9
0.0
0.0
4.3
4.0
3-8
3.8
4.8
+7.C
+5.0
0.0
3.1
1.1
+0.9
+0.3
+0.9
+0.3
H6
117
r!27.4 r!27.8
p!20
r!18
128.2 pl29-2,
+1.7
+0.8
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-CoMinued
Basic data1
Series
Unit of
measure
Jan.
1964
Feb.
1964
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars*.. Ann. rate,
Ml. dol
.
... 506.4
49. Gross national product in current dol.4. ...do
r608.0
r605 Q
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21) *
..do
. .do* ........ 2355.1 2239-9
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52. Personal income
..do
478.8
478.1
53- Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
..do
124.0 125.6
54- Sales of retail stores
21000 r21533
Mil. dol
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
1957-59=100
101 1 101 1
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total.4
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
Pe rcent c hange2
Mar.
1964
A$r.
1$64
Avg.
Jan.
change, to.
Feb.
195319633
1964
2322.5 P2452.1
r480.9 p483.1
1.5
0.5
+0.9
+1.3
+1.9
-4.9
+0.1
r!25 . 9 p!26 . 8
r21305 p21244
0.8
0.8
+1.3
+2.5
1.3
1.5
1.3
101 0
101 1
00
Mar.
to
Apr.
1964
+3-7
+0.4
+5.6
+0.5
+0.2
-1.1
+0.7
-0 1
+0 1
+0.5
-l.X)
-0.3
3.2
+0.1
0.6
0.0
0.9
-0.4
NA
0.5
+0.2
+0.2
NA
NA
NA
0.8
0.8
+0.9
+1.1
.0.5
+1.0
NA
NA
2 3
-0 2
4.6
36
+1 7
5Q 5
-32 1
286
+151
a4l.25
r99.1 r99.1 r99.6
1957-59=100..
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real
4
plQ4.0
corporate GNP
*
..do
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventor60.1 p60.2
60.0
ies, all manufacturing industries
, Bil. dol
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing indus. ..do
21.4 P21-3
21.2
66, Consumer installment debt
Mil. dol
53212 53791 54315
6?. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
L qq
19 cities* 4
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipMil. dol
ments, total
2037-3 2028.7 2077.5
..do
rl421 8 liiiL5 3 1 Cp? Q
..do
r+6l5 5 +583 4 +554 6
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S.'
..do
-41
Ann. rate,
82. Federal cash payments to the public
bil. dol....
128.6
117.2 120.3
83. Federal cash receipts from the public.... * .do* ••••*•••
114.8
123.4 115.3
..do
-13 8
+6 2 -5 0
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income ^and
-5.4
02
Feb.
to
Mar.
1964
p98.6
NA
NA
NA
123.2
126.6
+3 4
-0,4
+2.4
+5 it
T5»*+
-28 8
NA
+2.6
-8.9
-6.6
+7.5
5 5 +20 0 -11 2
+2.4
+9.8
+8 4
5.7
5-4
2.5
MA
NA
-3.9
26.9 +93.0
15 1 +25 5
-50.2
-32 0
NA
NA
26.2
+22*1
-43.8
NA
+0.26 p+0.45
0.23
-1.11
+0.52 +0.19
J.A It C
J.A <}f\
n-t-fl iift
+1 91
Mil. dol
+171
+91 r+98 p+163
1957-59=100..
NA
107 8 107 6 107 7
94- Index of construction contracts, total... . .do. ........
143
140
NA
147
1
96. Mfrs. unfilled orders, durable goods.. .. Bil. dol
47.07 r47.64 r47.80 p49.01
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. *. ..do....
NA
0 91
107
02
7.0
1.5
5.9
u Q*?
-0
* 7J
J_A
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement... Mil. dol
..do
91 Defense Dept. obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S.
10?1
4370
2067
5484
1030
3731
NA
NA
2337
2854
1603
NA
+0.85
-0.26
85. Change in money supply excluding time
Percent
98. Change in money supply including time
93 . Free reserves* 5
-80
-0 2
-2.7
+1.2
T Q
-t-fi m
+7
+0 1
-2.1
+0.3
NA
+65
NA
NA
+2.5
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
^To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity
rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,
4, 5, 14> 15i 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the
rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as -MD.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
^Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
Since basic data for this aeries are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES; 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F,b.)
P
T
[Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators [
1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)
te, mfg. (per 100 employees
Dcements, all Indus, (tnous.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employeesinverted scale)
4. Temp, layoff, all Indus, (thous.--inverted
scale. MCD moving ovg.-5-term)
5. Avg. weekly initial claims. State unempl
insur. (thous.--inverted scale)
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
See "Mow to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,' page 5.
1955 1956
1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
1962 1963 1964
Basic Data
CHART 1 h
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
(Nov.)
P
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
:-t:'
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
I
I E
20
6. New orders, di/r. goods indus. (bil. dol.)
•..'•:
:•:'••':&
[New investment commitments
15
10
24. New orders, mach. and equip- indus. (bil. dol.)
4
3
i
60
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq, ft, of
floor area. MCD moving avg.--6-term)
50 2
40 1
M
30
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil.
dol.)
II. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)
"*.-•:•'".:
7. Private nonfarm housing starts {millions.
MCD moving avg.—6-term)
2.0
1.5
1.0
29. New bldg, permits, private housing units
index: 1957-59-fOO)
140
120 2
100
80
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957 1958
1959 1960 1961
1962 1963 1964
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SCRIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
(.My) (Apr.)
(Avg.)
P
T
New businesses and business failures [
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
13. New bus. i ncorporations (thous.)
14. Liob. of bus. failures (mil. dol.»
inverted scale, MCD moving avg.-6-term)
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wlc.inverted scale. MCD moving avg.—6-term)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Reod Charts 1, 2, and 3,* page 5.
1954
1955
T956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
11
Basic Data
CHART 1 N
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
[Profits and stock prices
35
30
16. Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bit. dof.)
25
2
20
§
15
110
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg, (index:
105
s»
100
95
15.0
12.5 2
18. Profits per dollar of sates, mfg., Q (cents)
10.0 |
7.5
15.0
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries, Q (percent)
12.5 ^
10.0 *|
7.5
100
90
80
70
60
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(indexi 1941-43=10)
50
2
40
1
30
20
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F.b.)
P
T
|Inventory investment, buying policy, ond sensitive prices |
21, Change in bus. inventories, alt Indus., Q (bit. dol.)
!•• ..
*4j
^nange in
DOOK value, mrg,
31. Change
in book
mfg. ana
ands^
trade inventories (bit. dol.)
U
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories,
materials, and supplies (bil. dol.)
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or iongtr
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bit. do
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1757-59-100)
-J 80
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
13
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Au9-)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
|Employment and unemployment!
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions)
42. Total nonagr. employment (millions)
43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverte
.•:> 40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent-inverted scale)
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent—inverted scale)
ted advertising (index: 1957-59 = 100)
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,* page 5.
1955 1956
1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
1964
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(May) (F*b.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil. dot.)
57. Final soUsfo (bil. dol.)
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "Mow to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con,
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dof.')'
52. Personal income (bit. dol.) ^
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bit. dol
54. Sales of retail stores (bil
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
se "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
16
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
P
(F*b.)
T
Investment expenditures
61. Bus, expend., new plant and equip., Q (bil. dol.)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mtg. (index: 1957-59-100])
68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index; 1957-59
: ;
v,^,-: .":
&;
65. Book value of mfrs. 1 inventories, fin shed goods (bit. dol.)
:A. ' <,.•
66, Consumer installment debt (bil. d
67. Bonk rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
2.4
2.2
2,0
1.8
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)
1>6
C4
i
1.4 1
1.2
1.0
1.8
1.6
87. General imports (bif. dol.)
1.4
u
1.0
oi
i
as
88. Merchandise trade balance (bil.
dol.)
+.8
4
0
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)
4.8
0
-.4
-.8
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
« "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
T961
1962 1963
1964
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e - - C o n *
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
[Federal budget and military obligations) j.;'.;.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
ml I I
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
82, Fed, cash payments to public (bit. dol,
MCD moving avg.«6 term)
eipts from public (bil. dol
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dot
MCD moving avg.-6-t.erm)
95. Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and
product acct.. Q (bil. dol.
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.-o-term)
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil.
MCD moving ovg.—8-term)
dol.
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dal.
MCD moving ovg.~6-term)
» i
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Basic Data
19
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
85. Change in money supply (percen
MCD moving avg.-6-term
. Change in money supply and time dep
MCD moving ovg.-6-termt
93* Free reserves (bil. dol.)
I
•"•".
81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59-100)
$$>
Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100.
MCD movina ava.—5-term)
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (fail, dol.) "
948
1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 1954
» "How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956 1957 1958
1959 1960 1961
1962 1963 1964
20
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F.bO
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59^100
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100)
123, Canada (index: 1957-59-100)
47, United Stotes (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See 'How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
21
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production-Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
Industrial production indexes-con
160
140
125. West Germany (index: 1957-59=100)
1203
100 §
80
220
200
180
128. Japan (Index: 1957-59=100)
:<
160 2
>>
140 |
120
100
80
160
140
126, France (index: 1957-59=100)
120 2
-S
100 *
80
180
160
140
127. Italy (index: 1957-59=100)
120^
looj
80
60
40
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
•See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
12
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by QD ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification
only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The nr" indicates
M
11
revised; "p", preliminary; "e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available.
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Average 2. Accession 30. Nonagriworkweek of rate, manu- cultural
production facturing
placements,
workers,
all indusmanufactries
turing
(Per 100
(Hours per
prod. wkr.) employees ) (Thous.)
Year and
month
3. Layoff 4. Number of
rate, manu- persons on
facturing temporary
layoff, all
industries1
5. Avg. weekly
initial claims
for unemployment insurance^
State programs*1
6. Value of 24* Value of
mfrs,1 new mfrs,1 new
orders, dur-orders, maable goods chinery and
industries equipment
industries
(Per 100
employees ) (Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol,) (Bil. dol.)
1960
3.6
3.8
3.9
©3.5
3.6
3.6
475
472
476
471
453
459
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
177
154
153
166
128
183
335
363
351
373
385
381
15.25
15.65
15.69
14.50
14,62
14.86
2.7B
2.78
2.75
2.69
©2.60
2.86
39.2
39.4
39.4
39.5
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.8
40.3
40.6
40.3
3.9
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4M
3.8
®4.4
4.3
4.1
©444
447
459
448
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551
2.9
©2.9
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127
393
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
©13.95
H.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.69
15.92
16.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26
2.76
2.74
2,71
2.74
2.70
2.80
3.03
3.07
2.88
2.91
2.98
2.96
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
40.7
40.2
40.4
40.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
559
572
574
[3592
557
557
550
555
554
563
547
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
135
[S88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
17.70
17.70
17.15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3.15
3.30
2.97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07
40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.3
40.7
40.6
40.5
40.5
3.7
3.9
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.9
552
555
553
560
551
541
541
540
552
570
530
532
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
313
294
285
290
286
287
283
285
282
281
280
308
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18,24
18,62
18,11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
40.1
40.6
EH 40. 7
P40.6
3.7
r4.0
P3.8
(NA)
536
535
520
522
1.8
1.7
®pl.7
(NA)
123
123
91
122
289
264
273
0260
3
268
19.74
r!9.54
rl9.32
{M]p20.64
15)3.62
r3.45
r3.45
P3.55
39.8
39.6
39.5
39.6
39.3
©38.4
July
August
October
November.
„
1961
February ......*
March
April
May
June »
July
August
September ......
October
November
1962
March
April
flfey
June
July
August
October
November **.*,..
1963
March
April
May
June
July
August .........
September
October
1964
February
March
April
May
June
*.*
^•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source asency
Week ended M a y 9 .
* - * - * * .
23i
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those.that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by .© and current highs, by .GD; the.reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised;' "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
Year and
month
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
1960
July.....
September ......
1961
January.
March
April
May
July
October
November
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
3.41
3.41
3.44
3.34
3.20
3.49
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.28
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50
38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16
40.56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89
3.71
3.93
3.71
3.96
3.76
3.66
3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.14
44.15
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4-08
4.17
4.32
El 4.68
51.64
©52.47
48.17
(NA)
4.37
r4-l6
P4.09
(NA)
©1.78
2.10
1.84
1^93
2.23
a!i6
7. New private 29. Index of
nonfarm dwel- new private
ling units
housing units
authorized by
started
local building permits
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
12. Net change
in business
population,
operating
businesses
13. Number
of new business incorporations
(Thous.)
(Number)
(1957-59-100)
1,184
1,285
1,113
1,210
1,192
©1,041
91.5
87.8
88.4
89.9
90.8
©87.0
1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
102.8
109.8
105.0
111.5
103.7
107.1
108.6
106.3
110.2
109.5
114-9
114.5
1,317
1,353
1,549
1,590
1,590
1,554
1,573
1,434
1,697
. ©1,807
1,533
1,518
110.1
108.7
112.7
111.8
117.6
120.6
115.7
111.7
121 .4
124.9
121.1
03126.2
1,688
rl,6l3
rl,640
pi, 526
116.3
124.3
r!22.5
pllO.5
+14
+10
©+6
+10
+10
+10
15,828
15,114
15,U2
15,035
14,264
14,097
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,881
1962
March
April
.»
Ifey
June
July
AUgUat. . r T T r t T ,
2^34
2^02
2.41
2.71
+11
+12
+11
+11 .
15,599
15,758
15,670
15,372
15,245
14,947
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
1963
March
April
May
June .,.. f T ,,,",,
July
AUffUS"fc. . T r T , , » .
2.'l6
2.65
©3121
2.78
+11
+12
+12
:
'
+12
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
["116,275
15,759
15,867
1964
March
April
Ktay
(NA)
IHJ+io
16,193
16,086
16.023
- - (NA)
Basic Data
24
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by QT) ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series nurabera are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The Mr" Indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures1
Year and
month
(Mil. dol.)
1960
15. Business 16. Corpofailures with rate profits
liabilities after taxes
of $100,000
and over
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
'index, manufacturing
(Number per
week)
(l957-59«
100)
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
38
36
43
©43
37
41
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
77.40
107.15
89.80
93.15
107.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61
[a 32
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
052.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
39
87.70
121.87
107.25
98.50
41
42
37
46
JUlV
Aueust
October
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
20.9
20 ^4
100.4
99.9
99.9
100.0
99.9
98.9
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol,
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries
19, Index ofstoek prices,
500 common
stocks*
(Cents)
( Percent )
(1941-43«1Q)
7^8
s!i
7.2
8^4
55.84
56.51
54. SI
©53.73
55.47
56.80
21. Change in
bus, inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+2!?
-2^3
1961
torch
April
May
*
JUly
September
October
©19^2
21 \6
22 !6
24 3
99.2
©98.9
99.0
100.0
100.2
100.9
101.2
102.6
102.2
102.0
101.7
102.1
©6^6
©7.7
?!o
8^5
?!<?
6^5
8.*6
93
8.2
9il
a!i
9.1
aii
8!9
a!3
9JL
7*.9
9.'l
8^5
9*.5
a!s
9^5
E8.8
9.*S
(NA)
SJplO.'o
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67. 26
68.00
71,08
71.74
©-43
+1.1
+3^5
+?!2
1962
March
April
toy
June
**. .
July
August
September
,
October
November * . . * . . .
37
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
24^2
24^6
243
25^5
101.4
101.5
101.7
101.0
101.0
100.4
101.0
100.3
102.1
101.0
101.2
100.8
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62,99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60,04
62.64
EI+8.1
+6^5
+3^6
+4,6
1963
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
November
25^4
26 !s
27 !s
28.6
101.1
100.8
101.2
101.2
101.9
0102.6
101.8
101.2
101.3
101.1
101.1
100.9
65,06
65.92
65,67
68,76
70.14
70.11
69,07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72,62
74.17
+5.1
+4*3
+4^2
+5^4
1964
torch
April
Mav
X
(L)» June 1960.
Average for May 14, 15, and 18.
2
S)3l!i
r!02.0
rl01.9
rl01.3
p!02.5
76.45
77.39
78.80
(379.94
S
80.36
r+2!l
Basic Data
25
Table 2.--BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships
or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; nen, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
*
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
Revised3
July
+3.5
-3.2
August. ........
+2.9
-1.8
October
+1.6
©-11. 2
December
1961
-4.3
-2.2
-7.2
March
+1.0
April
+0.8
May
*
-0.8
July
+2.0
+3.1
August
+4.0
September
October
+1.9
+7.0
November
+6.2
December
1962
+6.0
+5.7
+6.0
March
+2.6
April
+7.1
I*LV
+5.6
+3.9
July
+2.0
August
+5.6
+5.5
October
+1.2
November *
ppcembe'Tt . . T - - T
+5.1
1963
+2.4
+1.9
+2.3
March
+4.0
April
+2.1
May
+4.4
+5.3
JUly
+0.9
+4-0
+7.6
October
0+9.1
November
+6.1
1964
January. .......
February
March* . . . *
April
May
+5.1
-0.7
p+1.3
(HO
1
CD=
2
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs .! inventories,
materials,
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
37. Purchased
materials,
percent reporting higher
inventories
( Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*1
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
manufacturers1
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries2
(Bil. dol.)
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(1957-59-100)
+0.3
-0.4
-2.6
-0.6
-1.9
©-3.5
42
37
41
38
41
39
54
50
49
50
50
©48
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.56
+0.33
+0.13
-0.75
-0.30
-0.19
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96.8
-1.6
-1.9
-2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3
©+6.6
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0.36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
[HI 104. 4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
058
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
IS 61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95-4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94-9
96.4
95.8
+0.9
-0.1
-0.1 '
+0.7
-0.6
+0.5
+1.0
+1.8
-1.2
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
46
48
47
50
55
57
56
50
49
46
42
42
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
-1.9
r-0.5
p-0.2
(NA)
40
50
54
55
53
54
56
59
55
54
60
[Hi 60
+0.40
r+0.57
r+0.16
[Hjp+1.21
March 1960.
© = January 1960.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue « page
ii
g
'Average for May 14, 15, and 18.
3
t3ee
26. Buying policy, production
mat Is., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*
98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
4
100. 4
26
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASICDATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT.Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appe&r to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by GD > "the reverse la
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimates; "a", anticipated; and MNA% not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total 43. Unemnonagri cul- ployment
tural em- rate, total1
ployment,
labor force
survey1
40. Unemployment
rate, married males1
45. Avg. weekly46. Index of 47* Index of
insured unem- help-wanted Industrial
ployment rate, advertising production
State programs2 in newspapers
(1957-59*
100)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
54,395
54,352
54,248
54,160
54,015
53,752
61,038
61,018
61,074
60,809
61,213
©60,740
5.5
5.7
5.6
6.1
6.2
6.6
3.8
3.9
3.8
4.4
4-4
4.8
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.7
6.3
6.3
101
101
95
94
93
90
53,725
©53,541
53,615
March
April
53,713
May
*
53,911
54,165
JUlY. . . . T t r r i . »54,294
54,444
54,480
September
October
54,593
54,825
54,927
1962
54,946
55,223
55,368
March
April
55,703
Jfcty
55,822
June
55,908
July
56,010
August
56,019
56,125
October
56,195
November
56,205
December* ......
56,211
1963
January
56,333
56,458
March
56,706
April
56,873
May
57,060
57,194
julv
57,340
August ,. f ,,,,..
57,344
September
57,453
October
57,646
57,580
December
57,748
1964
January
57,850
February
r 58, 183
r58,268
April
®p58,471
May
61,034
60,897
61,229
61,154
61,134
61,622
61,259
61,274
61,299
61,463
61,896
61,747
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.0
©7,1
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
©5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.9
6.2
6.3
©6.3
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8
68
©88
B9
89
91
93
94
9S
9S
107
110
110
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112,0
113.5
114.8
115.6
61,899
62,179
62,253
62,247
62,663
62,752
62,620
63,021
63,039
63,007
62,870
63,240
5.8
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
4.7
4.5
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
r4.7
114
115
114
112
114
110
110
108
106
107
107
el07
114.6
116.3
117.3
117.8
118.3
118.4
119.4
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.5
119.1
63,090
63,227
63,478
63,770
63,690
63,843
64,092
64,069
64,167
64,128
64,319
64,315
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.3
e!07
e!09
elOS
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119.2
120.2
121.3
122,5
124.5
125.8
126.5
125.7
125.7
126.5
126.7
rl26.9
64,631
65,035
65,207
065,811
5.6
5.4
5.4
05.4
3.2
3.0
2.9
02.9
4.3
4.0
3.8
(EJ3.8
3
3.7
116
11?
rl!8
EJpl20
rl27.4
r!27.8
128.2
0P129.2
1960
July
August
October
*.
1961
January
(Percent)
(1957-59=100)
109,1
108.7
107.8
107. 0
105.4
103.6
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bll. dol.)
44<X2
437 !l
©434^6
443.4
450.4
463 !l
46?! 8
474.6
475*6
481.4
485 .3
489 !i
495 .'l
501.7
GD-506*.4
x
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series.Prior to April 1962,
the1950 Census is used as the benchmark,
eX
PUert Ri
Which is included in
S^d«
figures published by source agency,
ended
May 2.° °°
Basic Data
27
Toble 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY I960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are, indicated by © and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3 ,-4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "pn, preliminary; ne% estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
I960
49. Gross national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Julv
503 '.5
500 ".7
502 !i
504.4
©500.* 4
504.7
October. .......
51. Bank
debits outside
NYC, 343
centers
52. Personal
income
53. Labor
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
•bil. dol.)
54. Sales of
55. Index of
retail .< stores wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
402.7
403.5
404.4
405.2
404.5
.©403.2
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,113
18,195
18,207
18,298
18,080
18,008
101,3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
404.4
405.3
410.1
411.7
4H. 5
417.3
420.8
419.1
420.5
424.3
428.4
431.3
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
. 108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100,8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
430.1
434.0
436.4
439.5
440.8
441.7
443.5
444.6
445.5
447.7
449.9
452.1
111.3
112.8
114.0
116.1
116.0
115.9
116.6
116.8
116.7
116.5
116.9
116.5
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
2,148,0
2,085.5
2,095.6
2,198,1
2,150.7
2,105.4
2,276.8
2,189.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,246.9
2,320.5
454.0
452.9
454-8
457.4
460.1
462.6
464.2
465.1
467.3
471.2
472.6
476.0
116.4
117.1
117.8
119.4
120.8
121.6
122.1
121.8
122.6
123.4
123.3
124.4
20,387
20,374 •
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
. 20,558
21,019
2,355.1
2,239.9
2,322.5
(R}P2, 452.1
478.1
478.8
r480.9
5Dp483.1
124.0
125.6
r!25.9
© p!26.8
1961
March
April
May
June
July
512.5
511.4
521 '.9
518 .*3
537*8
530 '.5
February
March
April....*
544.5
536.3
Hby
552 \l
546i6
July
August
October
1962
556 ! 8
553a
October
November
Pe^ember. , t r , t ,
565 ".2
561 [2
1963
January* .......
February
March
April
May
571 '.8
566.6
579! 6
575*4
588.7
584.5
600 ll
594 .*8
fe]r608*6
GDr605.9
July
August. ...,,. T .
September ......
October
November
1964
January
February
torch
April..
»teV
June
1
Week ended May 12.
21,000
13*21,533
r21,305
P21,244
100.5
100.5
100.5
©100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.0
101.1
101.1
101.0
0101.1
1
101.0
28
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted oeries are Indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs, by HO; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order..Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
July
August
35^90
October.
November
35^50
62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
68. Index of
labor cost
per dollar of
real corporate GNP
(1957-59*100) (1957-59*100)
100.9
101.4
101.2
101.2
101.7
102.2
64. Book value
of manufacturers f inventor ies, all
manufacturing
industries
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs .! in-installment
debt
ventories of
finished goode,
all manufacturing indus.
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
54.4
54-4
54.6
54.4
54.3
53.8
18.4
18.4
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.5
41,267
41,503
41,788
41,8S0
42,036
42,139
53.7
53.7
53.5
53.4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54-3
54.7
55.1
18.4
18,4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
(D18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18,7
18.8
42,109
42,035
42,041
©41,867
41,870
41,895
41,903
41,937
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.0
19,1
19.1
19.2
19,3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
-47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
19.9
20.0
20.1
20.1
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
20.6
21.0
21. i.
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
52,324
52,784
60.0
60.1
21.2
8)21.4
'p21.3
(NA)
53,212
53,791
©54,315
(MA)
103 '.5
103! 9
67* Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
( Percent )
4^97
4-99
1961
33. '85
Maroh
April
May
. fc
©33.50
JUly
34*70
September
October
November
December* *
1962
35^40
February
March
April
35!70
May.ft
36 '.95
July
August •
38!35
October
November
December, ,.,,,»
1963
January
February.
March
April
May
June
37^95
36^95
3s!o5
July
40 .'66
September. . . , . .
October
®41.20
1964
January.
February. ......
March
April
a41.*25
May
a42'.70
June
101.9
102.1
102.0
100.8
100.4
99.6
99.3
©98.1
98.4
98.5
99.1
98.7
99.4
99:1
99.0
99.8
99.9
100.4
99.8
ElOO.6
99.5
99.8
99.5
99.7
99.3
99.5
99.0
99.0
98.7
98.5.
99.2
99.8
100.0
99.9
99.8
99.9
r99.1
r99.1
r99.6
P98.6
105.6
103.* 7
103.8
©102.4
103! 6
103! 6
104.2
1033
103^9
104^4
104.1
CtD 104.4
p!04.'6
B
1K
4^97
4.* 97
4^99
©4^96
4^98
5! 6i
4. *99
SJ5.02
5! 66
sloi
s.'oi
5^66
4*.99
29
Basic Data
Table 2.--BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjlisted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by QD ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and donot reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month
1960
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments,
total
87, Gen- 88. Mereral
chandise
imports , trade
balance
total
(series 86
minus 87)
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,622.7
1,711.6
fcferch
1,750.7
April
1,661.5
1,585.1
June
1,581.9
1,688.5
Aucust
1,688.9
September ......
1,678.4
1,779.8
October
November
1,733.1
Penenftj^r « » , T T . . 1,724.8
1962
1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
March
1,795.4
April
Mav
1,761.7
. 1,835.6
JUly
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
October
1,724.6
1,838.7
1963
984.8
January •••«...*
2,117.5
M&rch
1,960.4
April
1,912.7
1,892.6
May
1,784.7
July
1,823.0
1,894.6
1,979.6
1,946.4
1,944-6
December
2,049.4
1964
2,037.3
2,028.7
February. ......
2,077.5
March
(NA)
April
May
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1,404.1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5
+341.8
+489.5'
+330.3
+430.4
+357.6
+484.9
+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2
1,091.6
1,497.4
1,486.7
1,417.2
1,420.2
1,420.5
1,457.5
1,508.3
1,450.4
1,458.8 :
1,471.9
1,480.0
-106 8
+620.1
+473.7
+495.5
+472.4
+364.2
+365.5
+386.3
+529.2
+487.6
+472.7
+569.4
September
October* .......
83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus,(+)
or deficit
<-)
95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product, acct.
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann . rate ,(Ann. rate, (Ann.rate^ (Ann, rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil .dol.)(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)Ml .dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.)
bil. dol.)(Mil. dol.)
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
July
89. Excess, 82. Fedreceipts (+) eral cash
or payments payments
(-) in U.S. to the
balance of public
payments
-1,018
1
-1,257
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.0
96.3
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
101.4
99.5
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
-0.6
+3.2
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8
110.2
124-7
118,1
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7
108.6
110.6
108.9
110.2
112.2
111.9
H4. 9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5
-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
-9.8
-3.4
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9
-4.2
128.6
117.2
120.3
123.2
114.8
123.4
115.3
126.6
-13.8
+6.2
-5.0
+3.4
+l'.4
-1.2
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1961
rl,421.8
1,445.3
1,522.9
(NA)
r+615.5
+583.4
+554.6
(NA)
-472
2
+31
-655
-1,274
-585
-452
-356
-793
r-1,041
r-1,283
r-144
r-192
-41
^-Includes
single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
2
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
-6.0
-5.4
-4.0
-2.5
-5*6
-i!6
-3*.6
5 q
-4 .'6
-3*.0
-i'.s
-i.'s
-5 .'4
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773
1,718
1,319
1,435
1,885
1,142
1,246
1,731
1,240
1,044
1,684
1,818
1,158
1,565
1,325
1,258
1,304
1,530
1,298
1,255
1,512
1,221
2,038
1,125
1,182
1,071
2,067
1,030
(NA)
30
Basic Data
Toble 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continual
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
"by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by (H]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA% not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle
91. Defense 92. Mili- 85. Percent 98. Percent 93. Free
Department tary prime change in change in reserves*
obligations, contract total U.S. money suptotal
awards to money
ply and
U.S. busi- supply
time deposits
ness firms
Year and
month
(Mil. dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Percent)
1960
July
,
August* *..,*...
October
significance — Continued
81. Index 94. Index 96. MTrs.1
of conof conunfilled
sumer
struction orders ,
prices
contracts, durable
total
goods invalue
dustries
( Percent )(Mil.dol.)
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(1957-59- (1957-59100)
(Bil.doi.) (Bll. dol.)
100)
5,305
3,824
3,999
3,357
4,109
3,583
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
+0.21
+0.36
+0.07
+0.07
-0.14
+0.28
+0.53
+0.67
+0.38
+0.47
+0.28
+0.52
+120
+247
+414
+480
+614
+669
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
113
109
107
117
111
120
44.18
44.51
44.64
43.89
43.59
43.40
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
A..653
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530.
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
+0.14
+0.28
+0,28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
+0.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
547
+442
+517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
43.01
42.94
42. 52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17
3,073
2,135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0.68
+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
1U4.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.80
46:42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
4,642
4,253
3,905
4,108
4,601
4,378
4,834
4,497
4,215
5,176
4,138
4,090
2,343
2,571
2,168
1,973
2,250
2,125
2,506
2,704
2,688
2,224
1,566
2,041
+0.54
-0.07
+0.20
+0.34
0.00
+0.27
+0.60
-0.13
+0.27
+0.80
+0.85
+0.07
+0.98
+0.44
+0.72
+0.52
+0.44
+0.47
+0.75
+0.39
+0.51
+0.97
+1.19
+0.45
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
4,370
5,484
3,731
(NO
2,337
2,854
1,603
(MA)
+0.85
-0.26
+0.26
p+0.45
+1.21
+0.26
+0.45
p+0.48
+171
+91
r+98
P+163
107.8
107.6
107.7
(NO
147
143
140
(NA)
47.07
:r47.64
;r47.ao
P49.01
7.*27
7^02
1961
Jterch
April
May
June
July
September
October
Peceinher» * *T » -, *
1962
January
4,434
4,181
March
4,230
April
4,486
tfey
4,059
June
4,024
July
4,864
August , T * . . t t . * 4,300
3,928
October
4,553
4,952
December* ......
3,974
6^68
6!s5
6*.58
6*.53
6^82
6^81
6l87
7 .*29
1963
March
April
May
June
July
August. . t ..... t
September
October
December
1964
January
February* ......
March
April
May.
?!o6
7*.53
8.02
8. '48
(NO
31
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (Q and current highs, by! QJ]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "pn, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Year and
month
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
Index of
industrial
production
International
122. United 123. Canada,
Kingdom,
index of
index of
industrial
industrial production
production
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
118
116
116
117
118
118
111
112
112
112
110
112
104
104
105
105
105
105
109
109
108
107
105
104
118
115
118
120
120
122
112
112
115
114
115
117
HQ
119
120
11Q
120
120
109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
103
103
104
107
109
111
112
113
112
114
115
116
108
110
111
110
113
ll/
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
11Q
115
116
117
118
118
118
119
120
11Q
120
1960
July
September. .....
October
November
1961
January
March
April
toav
June
comparisons c)f industrial production
47. United:
States,
index of
industrial
production
.u*..
July
October, .......
.November
December
1962
January
February *
March
April
120
121
122
123
122
124
121
1 ?/
[tev
1 9%
July
Amniftt* .,.,....
l?y
125
19A
October
November
113
1 97
1 07
1 9ft
1 97
1 TC
11 Q
110
113
119
120
11 n
-ion
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
130
133
135
136
r!36
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
118
121
121
120
121
122
123
r!3ft
122
p!23
11Q
1A2
145
146
150
114
125
127
127
126
129
129
124
125
126
126
I?/
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138 .
137
140
145
149
148
155
154
158
159
162
165
169
172
172
175
176
177
126
129
125
128
122
123
124
123
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
153
158
160
182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
158
156
162
166
166
166
164
156
171
172
172
171
179
r!84
r!84
rl91
r!89
191
r203
r203
r207
r210
r214
r213
1 OQ
12A
130
130
131
123
125
1 19
132
133
1 3?
125
126
128
128
126
15O
140
150
1963
February
April
|fey
July
December t * •> . . « .
1964
March
April
nl 1ft
(NA^
124
124
122
123
125
126
129
131
132
n!3A
(NA)
Ntay*
1
Qrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
119
120
121
122
124
126
126
126
126
126
127
127
127
128
128
pl29
129
128
132
133
133
139
133
135
135
139
141
137
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
1/3
t>lA5
1AO
13Q
p!39
fNA)
(NA)
r!41
.
'
173
pl68
(NA)
r218
n?91
(NA)
Analytical Measures
32
Table 3.-.DISTR1BUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
July
1957
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
May
1960
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
3 months ..*......*
22
.* •
1
...
.
2
2
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
18
0
3
19
16
2
14
2
1
3
2
1
11
1
3
4
I
1
*2
a
*1
12
1
"i
2
1
3
2
1
;L
3
1
"4
1
4
•• •
23
0
20
23
0
Ha
0
2
19
21
23
0
23
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
3
7 months
1
2
...*•*.......
i
2
1
4 months
4
1
2
2 months
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
11
9
1
1
2
3
3
11
27
1
3
2
2
3
3
4
1
4
4
11
27
11
36
11
36
"*2
**5
11
45
6th month before business cycle peak
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was -reached
May
1948
Jan.
1953
3
3
11
27
"*3
6
11
55
Current expansion
Jan.
1964
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
1
*1
**2
Feb.
1964
Apr.
1964
Mar.
1964
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
6
1
6 months
*
4
2
4 months
3 months
2 months
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
2
1
l
ia
6
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
17
1
1
1
219
16
10
1
4
4
4
2
4
"i
i
*1
*1
2
2
3
I
2
4
1
1
2
1
2
2
4
23
4
23
9
23
17
23
17
1
1
10
9
1
2
1
2
2
2
4
23
17
7
"i
i
i
"i
5
16
31
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
6
5
4
3
months ..*......*»*..•.»*.
months
months
months
1 month
Benchmark month
,
.,,
2
1
4
2
4
2
*
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
5
11
45
1
2
3
6
11
55
5
3
11
27
*• •
2
3
"3
6
11
27
11
55
**i
1
8
1
2
8
11
73
11
73
"i
*io
11
91
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from1 the distribution.
5 series were not available.
Z
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
33
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(MOV.) (Oct.)
P
(Jury)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
Percent
Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.--21 indus. !'
(3-mo. interva"
goods indus.-36 indus.
;
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations:!
*—602 cos. (4-Q interval)
*—*15 Indus. (1-Q interval)
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting \higher profits-700 cos. (1-Q interval)
£\:
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-82 indus
3-mo. interval)
D23. Industrial materials prices—13 indus. mtls. *;
(5'-mo. interval)
.
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.-47
(inverted. 5-mo. interval)
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
>e* "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
34
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT-~Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
D41. Employees in nonagr, esrablishments-30 indus
U-mo. i
047, Industrial product!on-24 indus.
(1-mo. interval)
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods«23 indus
(5-mo. interval)
D54. Sales of retail stores«24 types of stores
(5-mo. interval)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
An alytie al M easures
35
CHART 3b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
P
(July)
(Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (F«b.)
T
D35. Net sales, all mfrs,-800 cos
(percent-^4-Q interval)
D36- New orders, dur. goods mfrs,«400 cos.
(percent-* 4-Q interval)
D48. Carloodings—19 mfrd. commodity groups
(percent-4-Q interval)
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q interval)
061. New plant and equipment expend.—17-22 tndus
(percent--1-0 interval)
1948
ilii|imilnliiliiliiluliiln iilnliaailBlii nUnln iilnU^
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964
ato are centered within intervals. Latest data areas follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36(Jan. 1964)
D48 (March 1964)
D61 (February 1964)
"How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
4th Q 1 962- 4th Q 1963 2nd Q 1 963- 2nd Q 1964
2nd Q 1962 to 2nd Q 1963 2ndQ 1963 to 2nd Q 1964
3rd Q 1 963 ro 4th 0 1 963 IstQ 1964 to 2nd 0 1 964
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-tnonth figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla and D19, which require no adjustment, and D34 whieh is adjusted only
for the index.- Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "rn indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indexes
1-month
interval
Dll* Newly approved
capital appropriations
D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year and
month
3-month
interval
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
a. 602 companies
b. 15 Industries
4-quarter
Interval
1-quarter
Interval
1960
JUly
September
50.0
31.0
19.0
83.3
7.1
7.1
14.3
16.7
31.0
7.1
4.8
23.8
41.7
52.8
47.2
33.3
44-4
58.3
a .7
95.2
71.4
54.8
81.0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73.8
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8
66.7
95.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
78.6
88.1
54.8
97.6
85.7
81.0
26.2 \
33.3
48.6
66.7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3
52.8
72,2
72.2
72,2
77.8
83.3
66.7
69.4
62.5
72.2
70.8
80.6
14.3
73 .«
73.8
76.2
21.4
28.6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5
21.4
59.5
88.1
78,6
40.5
21.4
21.4
59.5
35.7
38.1
31.0
73.8
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
63.9 i
68.1
66.7
41.7
48.6
37.5
36.1
52.8
52.8
52.8
75.0
77.8
52.4
73.8
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
42.9
66.7
57.1
21.4
83.3
71.4
64.3
31.0
52.4
54.8
78.6
47.6
59.5
64.3
47.6
66.7
7.1
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
66.7
75.0
73.6
55.6
56.9
50.0
41-7
45.8
62.5
54.2
69.4
77. B '
0.0
85.7
r28.6
P52.4
r85.7
r52.4
P92.9
r55.6
r44.4
r52.8
P70.8
37.5
30.6
41.7
23.6
33.3
23.;
*40
66!-!
*48
1961
February
torch
April
May
June
July
AUCUStr - - r r » t - -,
October
Novettber
December ,
1962
»
ftorch
April
ftoY..
June
July.
Auviist
September. . . . * .
October
November * * * . » » .
1963
January ..,..-..,
Iteforuary. ......
fferch
April
;.
KfaV
June ...........
July
August
September
October
Novenber
<
*54
*58
46 /!
53J
7<X<
'64
56 !'
'52
66.'
*54
26 /
*52
8o'.<
'-48
6o!<
*54
40.1
*56
*58
(«i)
63.":
6<X<
S3*.;
1964
March...**
r66.7
P75.0
(m
Analytical Measures
37
Toble 4.-WFFUSION WDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITfES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
ercent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month,
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla and'D19, which.require no adjustment, and. D34 which is adjusted only
for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(around 700
corporations)
Year and
month
1-quarter
interval
D19, Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
(80 industries)1
i
1-oonth
interval
3-month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
5 -month
interval
Revised3
1960
45
IffUflt
.
*47
5-month
interval
X-month
interval
:
Revised2
89.4
80.7
63.5
38.8 .
36.5
42.4
76:5
93.8
38.5
30.8 i
38.5
30.8
23.1
26.9
46.2
30.8
38.5
30.8
23.1
30.8
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
42.3
76.9
84.6
73.1
53.8
46.2
53.8 i
46.2
61.5
38.5
15.4
61.5
61.5
76.9
76.9
76.9
61.5
61.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
69.2
53.8
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23,4
57.4
59.6
61,7
66.0
68.1
66.0
61.7
93.6
93.6
68.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1,2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
76.9
38.5
38.5
15.4
42.3
26.9
23.1
34.6
61.5
53.8
84-6
66.7
46.2
61.5
23.1
23.1
23.1
15.4
30.8
23.1
53.8
66.7
75.0
69.2
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
48.9
22.3
63,8
97.6
79.3
43.8 ,
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
88.0
62.5
54.4
60.2
74.4
56.4
50.6
68.4
58.3
58.3
50.0
38.5
50.0
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
76.9
69.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
58.3
58.3
46.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
73.1
76.9
76,9
84.6
23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
44-7
61.7
31.9
34.0
69.1
48.9
48.9
85.1
54.3
63.8
68.1
70.2
40.4
31.9
68.1
48.9
74.7
64.7
78.2
75.6
73.7
81.0
82.1
61.5
57.7
38.5
361.5
38.5
69.2
.61.5
53.8
85.1
51.1
83.0
32.9
76.5
15.3 ,
23.5 :
55.3
i
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
\
26.6
23.4
20.2
21,3
57.4
31.9
1961
47
rtril
'06
line ••.
ilv
'58
[IflflTSt, - . , . ^ t , , t
c'tobef. . « * * . . .
wemb^r .......
ecefltoer. . f n » »
1962
anuArv
'56
54
,. . . .
arch
pril . . . av. . . .
'i?
. .*..
'48
epteiriber. » » r t T
ctober. * <
'56
Ulv
>
1963
50
arch... «.
wll.. ........
*59
mie
lily.,.
*56
llfZUfit. . . . r . . . *
©pteniber
letober
twember.......
*»certfbei% f t * * - *
1964
*55
57
^t?t*Ui(U?y. * r » . r r
hrch
itirtl
Un6,« . » .
,. . . .
3
8
&o
75.5
,
diffusion index is based on 85 components through November I960; on 82 components, December I960 to February
1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; and on 79 components thereafter, 19 components and 5 composites,
representing
an additional 22 components, are shown in the dlrection-of-change table (table 6C).
2
See *New Features and Changes For This Tesue," page li.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
3
Average
forBank
May of
14,St.15,
and 18.
Federal
Reserve
Louis
38
Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5tmonth figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quartor figure
are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally ad
. justed components are used except in indexes DUa and D19, which require no adjustment, and D34 which is adjusted onl
for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", pre
lirainary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
D41. Number of employees D47. Index of industrial
in nonagricultural
production
establishments
(24 industries)
(30 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
.interval
3-month
interval
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
35.0
35.0
23.3
30.0
18.3
13.3
23.3
26.7
33.3
25.0
18.3
20.0
39.6
45.8
25.0
33.3
27.1
20.8
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20.8
45. C
33.3
61.7
56.7
86.7
88.3
70.0
70.0
56.7
71.7
81.7
63.3
15.0
40.0
43.3
78.3
85.0
90.0
90.0
66.7
80.0
80.0
78.3
76.7
45.8
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
55.0
80.0
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
45.0
33.3
43.3
78.3
88.3
88.3
80.0
73.3
65.0
51.7
38.3
35.0
26.7
28.3
43.3
63.3
48.3
83.3
66.7
85.0
61.7
75.0
48.3
45.0
65.0
41.7
70.0
43.3
r83.3
r73.3
P55.0
D54, Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)
1-month
interval
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing Industries)
5-month
interval
1-month
interval
45.8
45.8
45.8
79.2
22.9
37.5
18.8
56.3
37.5
35.4
50.0
43.8
45.7
30.4
19.6
50.0
34. B
56.5
41.
39.
2330,
34,
47
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
U*7
58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4
43.8
43.8
64.6
62.5
64.6
56.3
83.3
87.5
95.8
81.3
83.3
83.3
39.1
47, a
41.3
65. a
45.7
37.0
50.0
56.5
60.9
39.1
43.
34.
39.
43.
52,
29.2
83.3
83.3
75.0
83.3
62.5
54.2
58.3
79.2
29,2
54.2
41.7
50.0
66.7
91.7
83.3
70.8
79.2
68.8
79.2
41.7
62.5
45.8
58.3
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
53.3
65.0
71.7
83.3
78.3
75.0
60.0
50.0
48.3
40.0
63.3
48.3
66.7
68.8
72.9
62.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
62.5
47.9
50.0
60.4
58.3
54.2
81.3
83.3
91.7
87.5
83.3
87.5
72.9
58.3
60.4
60.4
r62.5
r73.3
r76.7
P85.0
r56.3
64.6
r70.8
P81.3
r62.5
r66.7
P75.0
5 -month
interval
1960
JUlV
September
November .......
December
1961
January
March
April
May
June
*.
July
AU£USt. . . . . » r t t
October
November
December, , . - T -n
1962
January
Jferch
April
Miy
July
August
September. . T » » .
October
November. . T - - - *
December
1963
January. .......
February
torch
April
Ifey
June . »
, 11 .
July
September
December
1964
January
March
April
Hfey
June *
a43,
56.5
47,
54,
45.
50,
60 ,
85.4
93.8
89.6
70.8
81.3
79.2
70.8
54.2
95.8
95.8
81.3
79.2
69.6
43.5
52.2
58.7
45.7
43.5
39.1
41.3
54.3
34.8
45.7
39.1
54
63
63
58
52
47
43
30
41
34
23
30
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
81.3
56.3
45.8
58.3
62.5
75.0
66.7
70.8
54.2
68.8
58.3
r87.5
39.1
43.5
37.0
41.3
58,7
60.9
50.0
56.5
58.7
76.1
67.4
63.0
34
28
45
50
52
52
69
73
71
69
73
r71
43.8
70.8
r45.8
P25.0
r83.3
P58.3
58.7
r63.0
r45.7
P67.4
r65
p69
47. a
Analytical Measures
39
Toble 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES/ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
ercent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter'figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; l!p", preliminary;
and "NA11, not available.
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4- quarter
interval .
Year and
month
-Actual
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies) <
4-quarter
interval
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
Antici- Change in
pated total (000)
Actual
Antici• pated
1960
'56
*70
50
*68
2l'.l
50.0
-279
'60
*68
*62
*68
26 !i
42'.i
-212
72
*82
*72
*78
36is
89^5
-28
*74
*83
'73
*78
68^4
73^7
+79
*82
'88
*82
*86
87i5
89.5
+125
81
*86
*78
82
63^2
89.'5
+62
'so
*88
*76
*84
57 .'9
94^7
-67
*76
*80
74
*74
63^2
89 is
-96
*72
*74
'71
'76
42 !l
68 .*4
-66
*74
82
*76
*76
63 .*2
63 .'2
+28
*76
80
*77
*76
(NA)
78^9
+38
74
'so
76
'?6
68 .*4
+44
*84
(NA)
"so
78^9
+39"
*84
73 !?
ctober
56.2
71.9
34^4
43 is
28.1
37.5
•46*.9
53ii
56 \2
62i5
59^4
65io
65.6
62.5
68 is
68 is
65 !D
65 io
46 i9
68 is
40.6
50.0
65 ,*6
75 i6
75 i6
71.9
;71.,^
75i6
(NA)
50.0
1961
ebruary
pril
ay.
nyptrfber »• T . . t . .
1962
oril
fry
epteiriber* * . . » *
1963
pril
\ilv
UETUSt
(NA)
*85
e-58
1964
pril
une
71.9
Analytical Measures
40
4.4.4,1
1
s^-
+
CO +
+ + 4-+
14-+
+ + +
. I I I + + + 4-4-4-4-+
I 1+4-14-1
I++
+ I I + O I + I + + +
+ 4* + + + + +
+ + +
1 + + + + I + I 4 - + I
s+
^
Q.
CO
g
I
A
unf-uBf
o
I
4.4.4.4.
W 4.
+ + 4. +
v O I
| + + |
adv-AON
l l l l
O l
1 1 4 - 1
C- +
I + + I
O
+
1
1
|+ + +
I +
+ + I + I + 1
Q 1 + I + + I + I I +
+ 4 - + I I + +
+ 1 +
I O + 1 + + I + I I I
I I I
+ + +
III
I++
+
1 o 4-
I 4-
I I +
+ + + | | + t + l l +
I + I I I + + + I + I
I + +
)
+ + 1 1 I
( I I I + + + + I I I
!+
t +
I + +
1
1 4-
I + + +
+ + + +
4- + +
I + I + + + + + + 4- +
+ 1 +
( + + ++ + +I+
+
+ 1 +
+
+ 1 +
+ + + + + + +I+
I I + 4 - + + + + + 1
u^+
+ + I +
+ + +
++I
+ +
+ + + I I I + +
I I + + I +
+ + + 4- + +1
I+ + +
S
» + + + +
t 4-
+ + + I
+ 1 1 +
+
I
-•t +
+ + + +
l » +
1 4 . 1 + +
(4.4.4.+
Jp+
t>+
+ +
|
+ + I + 1
O I + + + + I
«0+
(
I + + + + +
t
+ +
(
+ + I I I I
I 4 - + I + + +
» + +
1 + 1 1 + )
+ + +
1 I +
t
I + + +
I +
I + + I I I I
I + I I I + + + G + +
I + +
+ + O
I
+1+
1 1 +
+ + + 4-4-
1 1
)
O J I
i
+ + + ++1
I + 4-
+ + 1 + 4 - 1 4 .
I 1
I + + I I
+ + + | | + + + + ++
+ ! + » + +
I +
| 1 + + |
I + +
+ + +
++
I I +
+ + ( +
i + +
I+
t i
+ 4-4-
+ 1 + + +
U.
2
»—
I I + + + +0
+ + +
l +
l + 4.
+
I
i
t
I
)
+
+ +
t
I +
I +
b
I 4-
l 4- 4-
I +
I I
I
I 4-
i +
4-
I
1 t
I
l
l 1
\ 4- + + 1
Q.
x04-
<
Q.
n c
0
UJ
01
O
AON -
I
I + +
+ +
>
^O
O
cd
I
i
i + + + + i i + o+ i
+
i
+ i i+ i +++ i+ i
t
i
l
l
+ + +
1
I
I
I
+
1 + 4 - 1
1
1
1 +
+ + + 1
I
I ++
t
I
+ i i+ i i + i i i+
4+4-
4- + 4I
^+
4iI
t
£
R '
£+
5 '
R '
I
4-
£
g
^
1
I
+ + +
+ 1 1 +
+ +
1 4- +
+ + +
I
l 4- +
+ +
I +
i + +
I
1 +
1
I + +
+ 4-
I +
I
I
I 4- +
+
9 +
0 + + + 4- 4- +
I + +
1
I +
+ + 4- 4I I
1 1
1 0 +
I +
1 + 1
I + +
I +
4- +
+
t + +
+ +
l
l
o + l
+ 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 +
I
1 1 +
+
I +
I + +
+
I +
I
I
I + +
I I ++
| +
+ |
I
+ +
(
4' 4-
I
I I
4* 4- +
I I
I 4* •4- + +
I ++
I
I I
I I
l + + + +
| +
+
l + +
i + +
I
I I
I 4*
i 4. + + l +
l +
Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3 -month spans
1-month spans
Percent rising2
500 stock prices
Paper
Publishing
Drugs
Building materials composite
Steel....
Metal fabricating
Electric household appliances
8 1a
1
1
444444444444-
+ NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
4- - 4- 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 4- - 44- - 44- - 4-
4*
4444 -
4"
4 -
4*
4444 -
NA NA NA NA
_
:
-
4 - 4 - 4 -
I
44+
bo
-P
O
cu
44-
4- NA
4- -t-
1-
4-
+
: (-
+
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
4*
44 -
- 4- 4- 44 - 4 -
44-
:
+
4-
4-
+
*
"*"
44-
-
*
*
—
FH
(T^
-P
>
o
C
+
4-
+
(>>
frt
C
r~t
lfd
fn
+
NA NA NA NA
44-
44-
+
44-
44-
4-
4_
4-
4_
4-
4_
4-
+
4+
-
4-
4- 4-
-
44-
44-
44-
4-
+
-
44-
44-
+ 4-
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
:;
K
h
4-
44*
^
frt
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4-
44-
4- 4- 444 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
44-
44-
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
,0
nj
" £ s < s *^
4-
4-
4-
C
frt
99 98 94 91 90 88 62 54 60 74 56 51 68 74 81 82
o
4-
1964
1963
!> ai m, J|8 1 a
I&
i a 4 1J 1 1
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
Telephone companies
4
TTis>i
FH
Mrvir
1
0
Oct-Jan
2 ^
q
o
1
-P
Apr-May
4jM 1
1
I!
•-» f*« 2 <J
+>
8
4-
44-
Retail stores composite
*I3
98 79 44 91 85 52 29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76
4-
Food composite.
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing)
ti
Jan-Feb
o
a
to
Aug-Sep
&
!• i
1964
1963
24 industry components1
Jun-Sep
C.--(D19)
:
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
+
+
+
+
I
4444-
J
444-
-f-h
[-(-I-
44-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4
4 - 4 - 4 - 4
44-
44-
44-
44-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
44-
4-
4-
+
4-
+
4-
4- +
4- +
+
+
-
- _ 4-
44-
+
4- +
-
+
4-
4-
444-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4-
4-
4-
4-
-
-
+
4- » rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
NA » not available.
lf
The 24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
2
Based on 82 industries to February 1963; 80 industries, March to August 1963; and on 79 industries thereafter.
V)
O
Analytical Measures
42
unr-uur
^BW-OSQ
ady-AOM
rH
-P
xf-4.
^n
CM +
4.14.4.
4 , 4 . 1 1 1
4.4.
-f 4. 4, 4.
4. 4,
4 + 1
^ +
CO
+ + + +
+
£4-
+ + + +
+I+
t |
|
i
s
JB^-^-00
W-des
uBr-3nV
S
§
+ + -*+ +
+I+
+
4 ) 1 +
(U
0
0>
5
09Q-IBr
OQ
AON-unp
P°k +
r-
+ + + +
4 - I 0 4 - +
114.4.
0
^OQ-JC^I
^*+
++
+
14-4-
1 1 ( 4 -
das-Jdv
Snv-^^w
NPI
1 4 - 1 +
+ + 1 + I
1 1 1 4
3
1
CMI
(4-
+ 1 1 0
1 4 1 4 .
4>
IT\r*<iej
unf-UBp
sO^I
+ 1 1 + 1
14.14.
**
«0 1
4,14.4
4. g | 4.
i
14.14.
A^BW-oaa
to |
4,14.4.
4, g 4 4,
j
l
-idy-AON
«w-q.oo
qs^-das
CMI
4.4-4-+
+I+
0+
+ + + +
UBP^3t\Y
c-~
+ + + +
CO 1
114.4.
4.
tO+
4 - 1 ( 1
4 , 4 . 1 1 1
toO
+ 1 1 4 .
4 , 1 1 0 4
4- + +
-J +
tn
O+
+ + » +
4 - I I 4 - +
4 - 1 1 1
I+ + +
I I + + +
+I+
^oo-dag
deg-Uny
0+
+ + + +
1 1 + 4- +
+
^ r
+ + ++
1 4 . 4 1
Snv-inr
^o
1 4 - 4 - r
4.444,4.
i
inr-unp
-4- +
4 - + I I
+ + I + I
i t + 4 -
0>
unr-X^w
CM'
+ + f +
4 - 1 1 1 +
I+ + +
§
je^W-jcdv
jdv-^BW
O +
I I + +
0 4 . 1 1 1
4,4-14,
co +
+ i + +
+
JTSW-qsi
o i
ir\
o t i 4-
+I+
qa^-UBf
JR '
+ + I
-p
f
S
H
UJ
4
+
'
+
1 +
4.
|
I t
1
II+
+
*
+ +
&
' ! + + +
1
in +
1^+ + +
Ja;
1
+ +
•H
H
UTt p —A*B^
T^'^V
«
=
£ £
Q.
J2
Q
-2
JT3W-q3li
oaj-tiBf
5 o^
<
f»
09Q-AOM
ra
c
aw
61
UJ
§ °
UJ
I 4.
| 4,
tH
1 4 . 4 1
AON-^OQ
P
r-t
s
a
uBf-oaa
u
S
+
+ +
1 1 1 4 .
i
i
) 4. i r
+ +
1 4 . 1 1
+g+ + +
1 1 +
*.'. V.'. . . .V. . '.'.'.'
1
§
i
G
UJ
a
J;
0)
13 Industrieil materials com
a
: ,•
: : : : : :8; : : : ::
*
5a
-pQJ
+> S
<u 2
bDrH
—
•H .,-(
^a x-s q
p 0)
•
Si
•-—s
x-s
ir> _*
• H - P " —',Q^
•P TJ
O)
O*
<U *H
O
^«rH
U CO F^ X^*
W FH O •
O OQ A
>»•
•
* J4 —'
* ^ s r H O M
,£1 v_^x_x i—1 Ci<
r4
O O
0)
0
a
M
S
aO H«
CO H
+
0£
O
"8-p
3
£
i
i l l
+ +a
&
8X
<u
UB_T— osQ
;£
S i
1
3
in ^^
H
cd
| | | |
Jcdv*"*tB^j
58a
•°
fl
»
•*—-
•
•
^QrH
r^
(—* 3 s*-'v—*•
'—•»*-'
+ * rising; o ••' unchanged; - « falling.
direction of chan|je is determined . NA * not
^•Average for Msiy U, 15, and 1B.
1
CO
Ioble6.-UIKhUIUNUhlHANl»h IN ShklbS lUMHUNbimuVEK SKEUneu IIME jr/UHJ unit i-Lnicm ur JCKICJ ixumu: JMHUMFM i j
E.—(D5) Initial Claims lor Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
1-month spans
5-month spans
H *c
26 area components
C . Q f c ^ ^ C r H b
I-
1
1
o
1
1
c ,0
h
1
*H
1
f(
1
>» a
' O. -p
fl) O
$ o
r-4
&£&£3&Z£ i
t
i
> 0
O 4)
% s
i
i
C
f-t
f .J
:£
^>1 p
o c: Ji
a a s sa £
F-t
?
1
23 85 32 45 49 70 43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76
_ + - + _
+
1963
1964
_
_
_
+
_
_
4-
-
4-
4-
+ + -
4-
-
-
-
4-
4+
44444-
i
iI
fi1 &1 15=> 3>i 1tr> ic
3 * <^j a a 3 ^
C
bD
tH
ft
Qi
^.
>
1964
r-l
i
+
1
! J
8
>>
S
O
I
a
oj
1
&
h
1
8
>
Sf 1
11
Jan-Jun
1963
22 64 69 49 49 85 54 64 68 70 40 32 68 49 51 83
- 4- 4- + - 4+ 4- 4- 4-
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16
11 Newark *
1 New York
21
Philadelphia*.
3
18
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9
+
-
+ - - _
_ +
. - +
- +
_ +
8 Pittsburgh**.
23 Providence**
•
_
_ _ _ 4 - _ + _
+ +
4-
-
4-
-
4-
_
-
4_
4-
4_
-
44-
44-
444444-
4- 4- - 4+ 4- 44- - 44- 44- 4-
44-
-
4444444+
4-
+ 4-
-
-
444-
_
+
_
_
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+ _
4- + _
- 4- + + 4+ _ -
-
444-
-
4-
-
4-
+
4* 4-
_
_
4-
4-
44-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+ 4-
44-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-4-4-4-
4-
-
4-
-
o 4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4-
4-
4-
4444-
+
+
4444-
* ' NORTH CENTRAL REGION
Chicaco, •
• • * . « •
Cleveland
Detroit,.
Indianapolis,
Minneapolis * , . * . . * . . * . • .
, *
4-
H_
+
_
+
4+
_
4+
+
+
+
+
+
4_
_
+
_
-
4+
_
+
_
44_
+
44+
+
+
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
_
-
444-
-
44-
-
4-
4-
444-
4-
4-
-
444-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-4-4-44440
4-
4444-
4-
4-
4_
4-
4444-
4444444-
44-
4-
+
4-
44-
4-
-
44444-
4-
44-
' 44-
" 4444+
444-
444-
4-
+ 4- 4- t 44, 4-
44-
4+
4-
44-
44-
444-
SOUTH REGION
20 Atlanta.
12 Baltimore..
17. Dallas
14
- _
+ + _ _
+
4-
-
+
-
-
4- - - 4_ _ 4- - 4-
-
+ - 4- 4-
44-
44-
4-4-4-44- 4_ 4- +
+
4-
- - +
+ - +
+ + +
+
_
_
4444-
44-
-h
4- 44-
+
44;
444-
44-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
WEST REGION
2
24
6
19
Los Ani?eles
Portland .
San Francisco
Seattle*
_
+
. -
_
_
+
44+
-
- 4- 4_ +
- 4-
4-
-• +
+ _
4-
4-
+
•'+.
4*
4-
.t •+'
-i4. +
'4-
- » rising; o • unchanged; + • falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it.is'inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in April 1964.
**Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in Ap.rir 19&4..
'' '
percent rising is .based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.«(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagncultural Establishments
3-month spans
1-month spans
t
0
8
Percent rising
All nonftfri^ul ~t ural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Stone, clay, and glass products
Jan-Feb
c
0)
1-3
1
1
,0
&
*'
1 1M
U
^ & +•?"3 <•3 ^ <£ 1
1 i ,5U +>
i a #) 8
C
o
a
r
h
a
C
oj
X>
<D
^
rf
f3
fe
£
Q
>-3 fe S. <
1
0
c
I
C
aj
<!
1
X3
a>
t
f-t
d
63 48 83 67 85 62 75 48 45 65 42 70 43 83 73 55
_
0
_
_
0
o o •t- 44-
4-
_ 4- _
0 4- +
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
O
-
0
-
4-
0
4-.
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
o
+
o
-
1964
1963
1964
1963
30 industry components
>>
aj
£
C
^
>-9
1 t
^
>»
a. is
2
C , Q
^
^t
> j C M M a - P
>
Instruments and related products
40
4O
O
444-
4-
+•
4-
-
0
4-
_
_
_
-
_
+
4 - o -
+
Printing and publishing
4-
4-
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction.
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Services and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - « falling.
4-
-
4"
44-*-
4O
4-
4O
-f
4-
4O
O
4-
4-
44-
O
O
o
4-
O
0
O
0
4-
-
-
4-
4-4-
4-
4-
4-
+
f-t
t>>
C
5t
FH
di
S
- -
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
-
4-
4-
-
-
4-
_
O +
_ 4-
0
44-
0
44+
4-
44-
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- o -
o -
•*•
-
0
O
0
-
0
4-
- 4- O - 4o -
4-
4-
-t-
*"
4-
4-
4-
44-
o
4-
~
+ - 4 - 4
0
"*"
- -
4-
^i^
- 4 - 4 - 0
-
-
-
O
-
-
-
-
-
-
+• •*•
4-
•*-
4-
- 4 - 4 - 4 0
4* + +
- - O
+ 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - - 4 0 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 0 - -
c
o o o
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 0
O
- 4 - 0 4 -
-
+
. .+
4 40
4 -
4 44 -
4 - 4 44- 4 - 4 -
^<
r->
+ +
4 - Q O
4-
4-
o
0
O
-
o
o
- o - +
_
J-i
- 4 - 4 - 4 -
Food and kindred products
O
-
^>
4 - 4 - 4 - 0
4-
Electrical equipment
C
43 53 65 72 83 78 75 60 50 48 40 63 48 73 77 85
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4-
O
J O O a )
»e -r 5f f <c us !i <i ;a2 b! ij -^ i ^» }- 3d <Q; w
o 2 : c i S .£ fi § fi
i
i
i
i
1 1 1 1 1 t
1 1 1 1 1 1 i
> O C ,0
- P > O C , 0 ^ ? H
J s ^ C i H h D D j -p
o
o
<
u
o
j
<
y
o
!
i
P
*
a
l
^
^ ^ ^ > O O C) ofl 0)
O 2 Q » - s t i . S ! < ; s ! ' - 3 ^ < ; D Q 0 % O >-9 fc
4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 _ _ _ _ o _ 4 - - 4 - - - -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 -
4 - _ - -
+
4 - 4 - 4 - - o o ^
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
+
*n
rt>
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.--(D47) Index of industrial Production
3 -month spans
1-month spans
1964
1963
24 industry components
4i 1t 1i Ii Ii Ii 3i 1i Si Si iIIi sci a,ai
&£&£%£223%8£ a s
O
C
,O
h
f-t
>j
C
r-4
M
d -P
If II
>
1964
1963
§
, Q ^ h > i C r - l b O f X - P > 0
<l) .cd Cu _cd :3 ^ d! < u o O
QJ
i - s f e S - c C S ' - a ^ - s t J t S O ^ Q
1
1
I
1
1
1
I
1
I
I
i
I
- p f > O C ^ i f H ^ > > C ' —i b f l P *
67 69 73 62 88 75 65 62 48 50 60 58 56 65 71 81
-p > o c ,0
i
8 & & % & £
58 54 81 83 92 88 83 88 73 58 60 60 62 62 67 75
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
0
+
+
-0
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
4-
+
4-
+
+
-
+
-
0
+
+
+
+
+
4-
44-
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
- +
DURABLE GOODS
Machinery, except electrical.
Electrical machinery
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
+
_ _
+-
+
+
+
+
+
- -
+
+
+
4-4-
+
+
+
+
- + +
+
-
+
+
+
+
- + _
+
+
_
+
_
+
_
_
_-+
+
_+
+ O
- _
+ +
+ -
+
4-
4-
+
4-
+
-
4-
+
-
_
4
+
Clay, glass, and lumber.
Clay, glass, and stone
^<
rt
+
+
+
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
+
_
+
+
+_
+
+
_
-
+ .
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - -
-
+ - NA
O*
- o
+ +
^—•
S
rt»
NONDURABLE GOODS
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- +
+
+
0 - + * -
_
+
_
+
+
_
+
+
- NA
NA NA
NA NA
•*-
C/5
__
+ + + + + + + + + +
- - - NA
+ + NA NA
- - NA NA
* t"
Paper and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
0
_-t-
+
+ - +
+ + + + + - - +
+
_
+
_
_
4
-
_
+
- NA NA
4-
+
_-
-
+
-
Food and beverages
+
+
_
_
+
_
+
_ o - +
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
0
-
+
0
-
+
4-
-
+ + + +
+ +
+ + + + +
4-
+ NA
+ NA
NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
, ,
.,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+ 4- +
_
- WA
NA NA
+
- NA NA
+
4-
-
+
- - + NA
- + 4- NA
+ - NA NA
+ + + NA
- - NA WA
MINERALS
Coal
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
H
+
-
-
-
- - 4 -
+
-
4-
4-
+
+
4-
-
+
--
+
+
+
-
- - - -
+
+
+ NA
+ NA
+ +
_-
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+ + -*- NA
+ + + NA
4- » rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA ~ not available.
1
The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
c
§
Analytical Measures
46
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Analytical Measures
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48
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles, Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
TI T T i r nI I U MI i l l Ii
PERIOD COVERED
i|imi|i
Ind.x
Reference trough dates
Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug, 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 19$8)
*— May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus.
faldg.2
1, Avg. workweek, prod.
workers, mfg.
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24, Mfrs.' new orders
mach. and equip. Indus.
- 130
J90
-12
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
+42
-12
+6
412
418
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
+42
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2 W , the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For senes
with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter \t
set'at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
*5ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
^or the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
49
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4hi
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 {Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
- • • • • July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
-no
Reference trough dates
150
140
13. New business
incorporations
I
•*
**i*
\ V-
r
130
\f
y
' i
* *•
v
V
\»«„'
120
110
100
90 L-
180r
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
160140120-
'100
80L
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from reference troughs
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
•'See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
50
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins* with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cyctt.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
»
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
— — July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
" May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Ind.
43, Unemployment rote,
total /inverted/
nor
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
+6
+12
+18
+;M +30
+36
+42
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at M100". For serie
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set ot "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter 1
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
*5ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month ond comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
51
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
I | 1 M ! I I M I I I | I | l!l | I I I I t M I I I I I I I I IIndex
PERIOD COVERED
Reference trough dates
Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
-p~ May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I II II It I I II II I I I I II I f II I 1 11 I I M III I I 1 I I 1 I
Index
Reference trough dotes
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
+36
+42
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I1* or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the overoge oHhe 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set ot "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
*See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7*
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle,
I
PERIOD COVERED
—
Index
IM II
I
Index
III M 1 I I I I I
I
I
Reference trough dates
Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present* (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
TTTTTTt ITTT
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
1 I I I I I ! M I I I II I 1 1 1 1 I I I I
-*• Reference trough dotes
120
no
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
MOO
90
80
64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
+36
+42
-12
-6
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
+42
^Reference peak tevet. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serie
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly serins, the reference peak quarter i
set'ot "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
*$ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
^att 2 quarters anticipated.
Cyclical Patterns
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
i i i i i I i i i i i 11 i i i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i i i i ' i i i i I
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1958
1954
1961
M l i m i l l l M II I I I H M I M i l l
Index
<-Specific trough dates
2
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus.
bldgs. 3
Mill Hill
Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach* and equip* Indus*
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
-105
100"
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from specific troughs
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
54
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con,
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compored for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
I I I I II
I I 1 I I I | I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I 1 I || I I M 1 I I 1 > 1 I
PERIOD COVERED
<-Specific trough dates
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dotes each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1958
1954
1961
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
'wo
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2", the figure for tKe specific trough is set at M100\ For series v
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific (rough quarter is
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
l
2
See appendix B for specific dates,
See table 2 for latest month In current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the spec!
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown to table 2.
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough dote1 of each series for each expansion.
i i ri i i i i i i i I M i i f i i r i i i i i i i i i | i i i i i i i i i ii
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dotes ore the dotes each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of1949
1958
1954
1961
Index
•^-Specific trough dates
2
11 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 I 11 M I I 11 1 1 ! I I [ 11 I i 1 1 1 I! 1 11
I
I
I
I
I
I
rvl
|-<~Specific trough dates
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
43. Unemployment rate, tptol
[inverted ]
1
47. Industrial production
I
54. Sales of retail stores
100*
iiiii
0
iiliiniliiiiiltmiliiiiilmiil
+6
+12+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
Mill
0
HIM ll II M l I I I I I I I M i l I l l l t
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set ot "100". For series with
MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
"100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
>ughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9*
Cyclical Patterns
56
Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATE
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 5
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or me
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51) > the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 6?) is the reference peak quarter. £
also MOD footnote to appendix G.
Selected series
Months
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
after
beginning in—
referNov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb
ence July
July
1938 1949
1924
trough1 1921
1927 1933
1934 1958 196
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
\. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
2. Accession rate manufacturing
...*.
38
37
37
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
goods industries
1
7, New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
38
38
37
37
38
36
38
38
38
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
17.
19.
23.
24.
Price
Index
Index
Value
per unit of labor cost index
of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
of industrial materials prices
of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
95.6
25.5
24.6
82.3
28.0
47.9
72.6 102.8 103.3
57.4 138.0 113.3
61.5 127.1 229.2
192.4 105.0
153.2 124.4
42.1
38.9
62.9 213.9 160.1
52,0 271.3 135.9
106.7
98.2
114.3
117.8
135
122
39.5
34.6
113.5
99.9
122
NA
21.8
11.9
29.0
97.0
59.2 101.3 100.5
18.0 104.3
55.7
56.0 78.8
9.4
NA
NA
NA
104.8 195.4 122.7
60.6
83.0 62.2
208.0 137.1
79.2
66.4
NA 120.7
41.2 197.7
NA
NA
62.8
46.8
74.5 104.1
96.6
99.7 101
67.8 114.5 102
58.3 66. 4 141
113.0
104
116.3
91
88.6 115 !3 95,6 139
98.0 100.8 101
97.9
170.3 169.8 135.3 144
97.3 9B
86.4 100.6
*S:1
155.7 121.4
no. 4 123
NA
NA
lj.2.2 119
117.5
NA
137.8
130.1
NA
128.8
132.1
138.9
110.8
141,0
132.6
134.9
121.9
140.3
131.4
127.8
104.6
57.8
105.4
121.6
110.1
130.0
122.3
119.1
102.1
60.9
108.5
114.3
107.9
123.5
117.5
107.7
107
96
119
12C
114
141
12C
11*
79.7
86.2 105.3
107.1
109.2
101.1
99
96.2
90.8
75.7
54.3
47.8
55.4
NA 115.2
NA 125.1
131.8
128.9
39.7 113
91.9 117
77.8
NA
NA
91.5
NA
NA
86.4
81.7 107.5 110.0 111.3 100.4
80.1
NA 143. 0 118.0 102.1
98. B 160.0
NA 151.8 127.7
98
11C
132
78.9
89.0
93.8
133.0 129.5 102.9
92
38
NA
WA
NA
NA
NA
38
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
38
38
38
36
36
38
38
38
79.8
NA
98.9
NA
NA
94.2
NA
106.3
94.0
NA
102.8
113.6
116.1
126.4
114.2
105.9
80.8
NA
81.5
90.1
98.7
93.1
90.9
91.9
88.7
NA
88.9
74.0
92.1
59.5
75.1
84.2
38
63.1
87.5
33
39
51.3
48.0
38
37
37
36
29. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
43 . Unemployment rate , total ( inverted )*.«......
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods . »
*
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q) : 3
a
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
64. Manufacturers ' inventories, book value
66. Consumer installment debt
6?. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
NA
NA
57.3
NA
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 192?, August 1954, and April 1958, the pej
had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A f<
the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates*
NA Not available.
^ased on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for whieh data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 33 months after the February 1961 trough (actui
expenditures) and (b) the period 39 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 2nd quarter 1964).
Cyclical Patterns
57
fable 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
r series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or
more (series 2, 3> 6, 7, 9, 13, 14* 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
MDnths
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
after
beginning in—
referJuly
Nov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr.
ence July
1933
1924
1949
1938
trough1 1921
1927
1954
1958
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
, Average workweek of production workers,
38
37
37
+1.3 +4.6
NA +18.8
NA -20.6
-16.1 +7.7 +17.8
+4.1
-61.7 +40.2 +54.5 +27.6
-32.4 +66.7 +156.3 +241.7
-1.0 +3.1 +3.0
-6.6 +24.8 -5.0
-9.7 +45.5 +60.8
, Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
t.
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
>. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,...
.. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin. Index of new private housing units author-
38 +172.6 -6.3 -57.9
38 +56.5 +25.7 -62.6
37
NA
NA +84.8 +19.1
NA +188.8 -5.6 -17.8
+6.5 +39.7 -54.5 +188.9
NA +58.9 +17.1
+29.6 +44.7
+22.8 +23.1
+27.1
+31.1
37
38
36
38
38
38
-18.1
+6.6
NA
NA
+41.7
+44.7
38
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA +77.6 +30.4 +25.0 +29.7
38
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
38
38
38
36
36
38
38
38
+15.9
NA
+44.8
+22.3
+24.9
+21.5
+35.5
+13.3
+8.1
NA
+25.2
+16.3
+16.4
+30.5
+14.2
+5.9
-15.9
NA
-13.4
-10.2
-3.5
-14.3
-9.8
-8.1
+29.7
+72.9
+84.4
+46.8
+27.8
+55.9
+52.6
+59.9
+31.1
NA
+101.7
+47.8
NA
+54.2
+48.3
+70.4
38
-0.2
-4.2
-14.4
+19.0
+11.5
+36.8 -3.2 -16.1
-8.0 +8.1
NA +64.1 -0.8
+15.7 -39.4
NA +13.3
+46.4 -87.2 +16.7
NA
NA
NA
NA -0.9
+87.6 -6.3 +126.2
0.0 +63.9
-1.1 -36.2 +79.6 +53.9 +15.0
+13.0
-28.4
+35.3
-0.2
+34.2
+0.6
+37.3 +12.2
-25.4 -6.0
+26.3 +62.0
+6.5 +3.6
+55.0 +28.6
+12.0 +3.1
-5.6 -24.2 +10.3
+23.2
+16.8
+194.8
+44.9
+39.5
+23.7
+46.1
+37.4
+27.8
+8.2
+33.6
+15.9
+23.8
+13.5
+28.0
+22.6
+19.9
+6.5
+7.2
+26.3
+17.2
+12.2
+27.5
+17.8
+9.5
+9.2
+27.8
+25.0
+21.5
+16.7
+38.1
+19.2
+18.3
+12.8
+10.1
+1.6
0.0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Number of employees in nonagricultural
9. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
}, Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
L. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
5. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
L. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
2. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
7. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
33
39
+49.5 +37.9 -13.9 +178.6
+39.8 +30.2 -38.2 +223.1
38
37
37
-13.6 -11.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
36
-26.8
+1.4
NA +44.0 +38.0 +11.6 +21.7
NA +56.3 +35.0 +14.4 +26.1
+3.6 +14.3
-12.3 +11.4
+9.1
-5.5 -3.4
NA +53.2 +26.3 +6.0 +12.1
NA +35.2
NA +106.6 +71.7 +72.0 +46.8 +26.7 +29.2
-2.5
-26.4
NA +32.5 +35.7 +19.2
+0.4
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak
ad been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for
'he reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates,
NA Not available.
iBased on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 33 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
xpenditures) and (b) the period 39 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 2nd quarter 1964);
58
Cyclical Patterns
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43j 47* 52, 53, a
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MGO of '3M or mo
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month Is uned as t
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter.
See also M3J) footno
to appendix C,
Selected series
Months
after
July
spe1921
cific
trough1
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
..«...*.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43 .
47.
49.
50.
52 .
53.
54 .
Unemployment rate total ( inverted ) . . * » . . . * *
Index of industrial production. * . . * . * « « . . . * .
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
Personal income
**
*
Labor income in mining, nufg., and construe..
Sales of retail stores
Price per unit of labor cost index,
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
.*
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Mimber of employees in nonagricultural
£9. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
52 . Personal income
•
53 . Labor income in mining, mf g . , and construe . .
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Feb,
196}
Apr.
1958
#99.0 100
NA
*97.8 *100.0
34
38
38
42
40
*45.2
*86.3
NA
*99.2
*71.3
#114.6 #108.2
#106. S *110.5
NA
NA
NSC
150.7
*100.8 *76,6
41
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA #211.6 #106.2
#99.2
120,
40
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
#96.5
92.
*91.3 #96.6 *105.6
88.7
NA
81.3
74.0
85.3
83.3
71.6
79.5
116.9
160.4
137.8
123.9
110.7
NA
130.9
128.4
NA 117.5
131.5 132.6
150.0 142.5
NSC
127.4
*105.4
#67.5
#109.2
119.9
109.9
122.3
#116.1
113.3
#103.0
#78.2
#109.0
#112.4
#107.6
117.2
#108.3
#109.4
106.
90.
115.
120.
114.
3
119.
116.
114.
38
35
39
36
36
40
38
36
NA
#112.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
102.9
NA
NA
*108.2 #116.2
NSC
NSC
NSC
NSC
#111.1 •112.9
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
70.1
99.3
NSC
"99.8
NSC
19.3 186.9 42.3
MSC
#70.4 36.6
67.4
NA
NA #107.2 #90,3
41.7
54.3 154.8 #186.3
74.7 102.7 #135,1 #65.1
€-7.8 3125.
#128.1 97.
#101.0 98.
#122.5 133.
#92.9 96.
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion 'beginning in year shown
40
17.
19.
23.
24.
Mar.
1933
40
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ,..
Nov.
1927
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shewn
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ...
13. Number of new business incorporations
17. Price per unit of labor cost index...,*
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
July
1924
#+15.4 #+7.9
*+4.5
+3.6
+19.0
#+82.6 #+40.1 +99.6
NA
#+42.9 *+20.5 #+12.8 -54.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC +173.4 -0.6
+77.0
*+36.7 #+7.3 +101.0 +5B.9
+4.9
#+4.1 *+5.2
+5.
NSC +J>8.3 9+34,
+35.6
NSC #+51.7 +13.
+13.9
#+15.2 #+6,8 *+9.4 +3.
+86.4 #+109.6 *+48.1 +48.
#+100,3 #+34.7 *+L7,4 +5.
34
38
38
42
40
N-118.5
#+23.6
NA
#+46.2
#+75.0
41
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA •H-180.1 #+89.9 #+36.7 +30.
40
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
38
35
39
36
36
40
38
36
NA
HA #+56.3 +24.
#+32.6 #+12.0 #+11.5 +29.7 +31.1 +16. a #+9.1
NA
NA
NA +64.4 +192.4 +146.1 #+61.9
#+66.1 #+31.7 #+24.9 +74.3 +103.8 +45.4 #+£1.3
NA
NSC +46.8 +47-8 +33.1 +23.2
NSC
NA
NSC
NSC +26.6
NA +20.3 +14.0
#+32.8 #+15.3 #+15.9 +69.3 +50.5 +39.0 +23.8
NA
NA
NA +101.4 +105.1 +63.0 #+25.6
NSC
NSC +54.9 +57.7
+20.7
NSC +19.1
#+7.6 +9
*+!54.2 +31,
#+27.2 +25..
#+:»6,4 +21.
*KL2.5 3+16/
•K.8.5 +19.
#+:i7.6 +22.
#+13.7 +19.,
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
#Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for thia {series by the morr
indicated in the first column.
The figure shown representa the change to the specific peak and the period covered
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. l). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
ifiased on period of the most recent specific expansion for each seriesj i.e., from the most recent spooif.Le trough
the latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by 5
asterisk. Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the hl$
preceding that low.
Technical Papers and Background Materials
Ceisus Trading-Day Adjustment Method
Allan Young, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Bureau of the Census
INTRODUCTION
An important source of month-to-month variation
n many monthly economic time series is tradinglay variation. 1 Inactivities such as production,
ales, and shipments in domestic and foreign trade,
he monthly rate of activity is related to the num>er of working or trading days in the month. A
amiliar example is retail sales where more sales
re made on Fridays and Saturdays than on other
lays; therefore, months that contain five Fridays
jid/or Saturdays have higher sales than months
nth four.
By making a trading-day adjustment, the montho-month variation in seasonally adjusted data can
ie reduced and the trend-cycle component revealed
nore clearly. 2
The importance of trading-day variation relative
0 other types of month-to-month variation is shown
n table 1 for seven series adjusted for trading-day
ariation by the Bureau of the Census. In each
cries, trading-day variation is several times as
arge as the monthly variation in the trend-cycle
omponent. For imports, trading-day variation is
on aider ably more important than seasonal variaion, and for wholesale sales, those two compoents are almost equal. In both cases, about half
he total variation is accounted for by trading-day
ariation. Trading-day variation is of prime conern when attempting to assess the underlying cylical movement over short spans of 1 or 2 months.
)ver longer spans, trading-day variation is of less
1
The term "trading-day variation" can be conidered interchangeable with the terms "working lay variation" and "calendar variation." Earlier
tudies that have considered estimating trading-day
'ariation from the monthly time series are disussed by Marris in reference Z (see end of paper).
?he Eisenpress method (reference l) is compared
/ith'the Census method in reference 5.
2
A familiarity with seasonal-adjustment te cheques is assumed. At times reference is made to
ipecific measures provided by the Census Method
1 ratio-to-moving-average method of seasonal adustment. Details concerning Census methods can
•e found m references 3 and 4 (see end of paper) .
importance since it frequently reverses direction
over time and does not cumulate as do the seasonal
and cyclical movements.
Techniques for making trading-day adjustments
in the past have often relied heavily upon observation or a priori information concerning the daily
activity, referred to as external evidence. The
customary practice has been to establish a rate of
activity for each day of the week. Such a practice
is usually limited by the available information and
the cost of obtaining it. Usually, some fairly simple pattern of daily activity is assumed after examining the available information which often consists only of the weekly schedule of hours of work.
For example, in a manufacturing activity the assumption might be a 5-day week with the same rate
of activity for each weekday and zero for Saturday
and Sunday.
The variation actually found in monthly economic
series usually does not arise solely from one simple pattern of daily activity, but from a mixture of
many factors related to the numbers of each day of
the week in the month (i.e., to the calendar composition of the month) . These sources of variation
include the following: Different rates of daily activity in various processes, some of which are in
continuous operation seven days a week; practices
NOTE: Several people have made substantial
contributions to the recent development of tradingday adjustment techniques. The work at the Bureau
of the Census was carried on under the supervision
and encouragement of Julius Shiskin. John Musgrave
developed much of the mathematical formulation
and made many other valuable contributions. Gerald
Donahoe advised and assisted in the application
of the method to Census series. Morton Spmer,
Norman Bakka, Richard Bartlett, and Barry Beckman provided programing and other assistance.
Marie Wann and Geraldine Censky provided editorial review.
Much of the work draws upon Stephen Mar ris1
earlier work at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. James Nettles and
David Staiger of the Federa 1 Reserve Board made
helpful suggestions.
59
Technical Papers and Background Materials
60
Table 1.—PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF COMPONENTS OF
MONTH-TO-MONTH VARIATION FOR INDICATED TIME PERIODS
AND SELECTED BUSINESS ACTIVITY
(Percent)
Components of variation
Business
activity
Time
period
Retail sales..1953-62
Wholesale
1956-62
Mfrs.1 shipments
1953-62
Mfrs . • new
orders
1953-62
U.S. exports.. 1953-63
U.S. imports..1953-63
Building permits
* .1954-62
.
Total
Trad- SeaIrreg- Trending
day sonal ular cycle
100.0
7.0 191.B
0.8
0.4
100.0
47.2 49.4
2.5
0.9
100.0
20.1
71.9
5.6
2.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
19.3
18.3
50.3
62.6
63.1
38.2
14.3
1^.8
10.0
3.8
2.8
1.5
100.0
21.2
69.1
7.8
1.9
1
Includes a slight contribution from variation in
sales of selected kinds of business in March and
April because of shifting date of Easter.
Reference 5, appendix C (see end of paper for citation) will show the derivation of these measures
from Censu£ Method II summary measures of monthly
change, 0, S, I, C.
concerning overtime work; contracts and schedules
specifying a fixed amount of activity each month
regardless of the calendar composition; and bookkeeping practices that modify actual variations. In
many instances the effect of these factors is to reduce the variation that might be expected after cursory examination of external evidence of the daily
rate of activity. Although the variations arising
from this mixture of factors often cannot be estimated from external evidence, their net effect can
be estimated from the monthly data using techniques that have been developed and tested at the
Bureau of the Census and elsewhere.3 Such techniques, in general, yield better trading-day and
seasonal adjustments and are preferable to earlier
techniques.
A regression routine, described briefly below,
is being added to the Census Method II seasonal
adjustment program. This routine ( l ) tests for
significant trading-day variation in the monthly
data, ( 2 ) adjusts the original observations, if significant variation exists, and (3) develops seasonal
factors and other Census Method II measures. More
complete information will be available in forthcoming specifications for new seasonal programs.
The regression routine provides estimates of
seven daily weights. In the absence of a complex
of various factors, these estimated daily weights
correspond to the actual daily rates of activity.
When there are various factors at work, the estimates cannot be interpreted as representing actual daily rates of activity, but only as statistical
weights that represent the net effect of several
variables.
3
Notably at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. See reference Z at end
of paper.
DEFINITION OF TRADING-DAY VARIATION
In adjusting for trading-day variation, two typ<
of variation in the calendar are often considere<
The first is differences in the length of the mont
i.e., differences between 28-, 29-, 30- and 3
day months. On average, the longer months tei
to have a higher volume of activity than the short*
months. Variations in the volume of activity aril
ing from months of different length, however, cai
not be statistically separated from seasonal infli
ences that also cause differences between monthi
Length-of-month variation, therefore, is defin<
and estimated as part of the seasonal component.
The second type of variation is referred to \
calendar composition variation.
The number
Mondays, Tuesdays, etc., in a given month vari<
from year to year. For example, a 31-clay mon
in 1 year may contain five Fridays, Saturdays, ai
Sundays and four of each of the other four days
the week, while in another year it may contain fr
Mondays, Tuesday a, and Wednesdays and four of tl
other days. If some days are more important
the economic activity than others, this variati*
gives rise to variation in the monthly volume
activity. Such variation, which is not included
the definition or estimation of the seasonal vari<
tion, can be estimated statistically by relating tl
monthly economic series to the calendar. d
definition of trading-day variation is, therefor*
that it is the variation in the monthly aeries r<
lated to the calendar composition variation,
METHOD OF ESTIMATING TRADING-DAY VARIATION
If no allowance is made for trading-day variati<
prior to seasonal adjustment, the trading-day var
ation is left as a residual in the irregular compi
nent.Therefore, the sequence of steps in estimate
trading-day variation in the Census Method II se;
sonal adjustment program is (1) to separate t)
trading-day and other irregular variation)! from tl
seasonal and trend-cycle, seasonally adjust ti
original series; (2) from the combined irregul;
and trading-day variations, estimate th<; trading
day variation in terms of seven daily weights (s<
below); (3) from the seven daily weight;*, derr
monthly trading-day adjustment factors and adju
the original series for trading-day variation; ai
(4) using the trading-day adjusted data, make
second seasonal adjustment. 4
The seven daily weights are estimated by r<
greasing the irregular component upon seven ind<
pendent variables, representing the number of tim<
each day of the week occurs in a particular montl
as follows:
BZ +
B7 + Et
where Ii is the estimate of the irregular compone
for month i that includes both the "true11 irregul;
4
There are several possible variations upon th
sequence and upon the regression form used to a
timate the trading-day variation. (See reference
at end of paper.) For example, it id possible
incorporate the trading-day estimation with a •
mult an ecus rather than sequential Method II soli
tion for the seasonal and trend-cycle components
Technical Papers and Background Materials
iriations and the trading-day variations.
tean of If is 1.
The
NI is 31, 30, or 28.25 depending upon whether
lonth i is a 31- or 30-day month or February;
Xji is the number of times the day-of-the-week
occurs in month i;
BJ!S are seven daily weights, totaling 7 j
Ejis the "true" irregular component for month i.
The method yields estimates, bj, of seven daily
eights, Bj, and estimates of the standard errors
E the bj. Thus, one may perform a standard t-test
> determine whether a weight is significantly difirent from any specified value and an F-test to
etermine the significance of the regression ( i . e . ,
ic existence of significant trading-day variation in
ic irregular).
INTERPRETATION OF DAILY WEIGHTS
The regression routine is designed to provide
even daily weights that total "7". A 5-day week
here the weekdays are of equal importance and
aturday and Sunday are "0" is expressed as Mon.,
.., Fri. = 1.4; Sat., Sun, = 0.0. A series with
o trading-day variation would yield equal weights
>r all seven days, Mon., ..., Sun. = 1.0. Alterative formulations, such as expressing each day
f the week as a percent of the total for all days of
le week can also be used.
There are two general types of variation which
lodify the actual daily rates and create a complex
f variations. The first type arises from economic
ransactions that are independent of calendar comosition. 5
When a portion of a series represents activity
idependent of calendar composition, the estimated
aily weights can be considered as composed of
wo parts, one part consisting of equal weights for
ach day and the other having differential weights.
on aider the following hypothetical set of daily
'eights:
Total
PerMan. Tues Wed. Thurs Fri. Sat. Sun. of
weights cent
L) 1.00 1.10 1.20
1.30 1.40 0.50 0.50
7.00
100
'hese weights ( l) can be separated into two parts:
La) .50
Ib) .50
.60
.50
.70
.50
.50
.90 0.0 0.0
.50 .50 .50
3.5
3.5
50
50
>art ( la) reflects the part of the series that varies
rith the number of different type davs and accounts
or 50 percent of the series, and ( I b ) is independent
>f calendar composition and accounts for 50 perent of the total series. 6
5
Some transactions that are independent of calenar composition are also independent of the length
f the month. For example, monthly rental payicnts are independent of both calendar composition
nd the length of the month while the consumption
f heating fuel is more or less independent of calndar composition but not length of the month.
6
Although it is useful for illustration to separate
lie
hypothetical
set of daily weights into two parts,
61
The second general type o± variation that modified the actual daily rates are the variations induced by bookkeeping practices. Suppose a firm
that ope rates-on a 6-day week (Monday, . . ., Saturday = 1.17, Sunday = 0 . 0 ) follows the practice of
closing its books for the month on Friday whenever
the month ends on Saturday (which occurs only
about twice a year) and includes the Saturday activity in the following month. This practice would
apply to 31-day months beginning on Thursday and
30-day months beginning on Friday, For such
months, reported sales would be decreased by almost 4 percent. Conversely, reported sales are
increased by almost 4 percent for the following
months which always begin on Sunday. Reporting
sales in this manner results in a monthly series
which yields a weight patter i of Monday, . . ., Friday = 1.17, Saturday = 0 . 0 aid Sunday = 1 , 1 7 rather
than the actual daily rate which had a zero Sunday.7
Another bookkeeping pra tice, followed by some
firms, that affects trading-day variation is the plan
known as the 4-4-5 plan where the first and second
months of each quarter always contain exactly four
weeks and the third month fijve weeks. This practice eliminates trading-day variation since each
period has exactly the sa
number of each type
of day of the week as the c rrespending periods in
earlier years. When so:
activity is reported
under such plans and other s reported on a strict
calendar month basis, the combined variation can
be represented with the abc ve example where the
( I b ) weights represent the portion of the series
that contains no trading-day variation.
There are three types of possible variation related to the calendar which
not included in the
formulation of the daily' weights, They are thevariation related to holidays, changes in the trading-day
pattern over time and chan
in the trading-day
pattern from one season to another. Experience at
3
Census suggests that these three possible varia( l a ) and ( I b ) , such a technique has limited usefulness . From information contained in monthly
data no reliable conclusions can be made concerning the actual daily rates of atctivity. For example,
the activity represented by ;he ( I b ) Sunday weight
may not actually take place on Sunday, but be distributed over the other days. What does correspond is the variation in the monthly series and the
trading-day adjustment faci ors derived from the
daily weights.
7
The effect upon the Sunday weight may appear
extreme since the Saturday : s only 1/30 or 1/31 of
the month. However, 4 full weeks, 28 days, are
found in all months, and only 2 or 3 days are unique
to each month. The shift of one day's activity is
1/2 or 1/3 of the monthly variation attributable to
trading-day differences.
8
The onlyCensus series in which significant holiday variation has been found are retail sales where
for sales of some kinds of business, the date of
Easter affects March and April and the dates of
Labor Day and Thanksgiving slightly affect AugustSeptember and November-December. Series based
upon a survey covering 1 week of the month, although not containing tradiAg-day variation may
contain holiday variation. Fcr example, the series
on the average workweek can be affected by holidays
that fall in the survey week. A change, over time,
in the trading-day pattern of (Canadian retail sales
is discussed in reference 2.
Technical Papers and Background Materials
62
Table 2.—COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE TRADING-DAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR SELECTED BUSINESS ACTIVITY
I
Avg. monthly change,
without regard to sign,
In irregular component
Daily weights
Item
Total Mon.
Tues. Wed.
Thur. Frl.
Sat.
Historical
Sun.
1953-61
Current
Rank
(lowest I •• "1")
Historical
1962-63
1953-61
Current
1962-6:
RETAIL SALES
Furniture stores:
Regression, 1953-61...
Regression, 1957-61...
1962 daily sales
No adjustment1
Lumber and building
materials dealers:
Regression, 1953-61...
Regression, 1957-61...
1962 daily sales
7.00
7.00
7.00
1.24
1.23
1.30
0.91
0.89
1.04
0.84
0.97
0.95
1.23
1.14
1.13
1.10
1.15
1.18
1.11
1.07
1.39
0.57
0.55
0.01
1.25
1.27
1.45
1.75
1.61
1.66
1.62
1.86
2
3
4
1
1
3
2
4
7.00
7.00
7.00
1.13
1.00
1.29
1.11
0.99
1.26
1.16
1.39
1.16
1.22
1.11
1.32
1.15
1.24
1.19
0.67
0.64
0.87
0.56
0.63
0.01
1.69
1.77
1.81
2.S6
0.87
1.05
1.43
2.30
1
2
.3
4
1
2
3
4
Hardware stores :
Regression, 1953-61... 7.00
Regression, 1957-61... 7.00
1962 daily sales
7.00
1.08
0.96
1.11
0.96
0.84
1.04
0.78
0.96
1.10
1.29
1.19
1.05
1.23
1.44
1.22
1.15
0.90
1.48
0.51
0.71
0.00
1.58
1.62
2.22
2.79
1.92
2.22
2.18
I
2
3
4
1
3
2
4
a. 6?
1954-61
1962-63
3.17
3.13
5.19
2.92
3.72
5.23
1954-61
1962-63
BUILDING PERMITS
Regression, 1954-61
A priori
7.00
7.00
1.20
1.40
1.11
1.40
1.48
1.40
1.25- 1.60 -0.32
1.40 1.40 0.00
0.69
0.00
1953-61
MANUFACTURERS*
SHIPMENTS
1962-63
%
:i
3
1953-61
1
2
3
1962-62
Tobaeco :
Regression, 1953-61... 7.00
A priori
7.00
A priori
7.00
1.89
1.40
1.17
0.96
1.40
1.17
1.42
1.40
1.17
1.18
1.40
1.17
1.24 0.00
1.40 0.00
1.17 0.58
0.31
0.00
0.58
1.54
2.68
2.92
4.35
1.58
2.31
3.13
4.96
1
3
3
4
1
2
3
4
Kitchen articles and
pottery:
Regress ion, 1953-61 . .7.
.00
A priori
7.00
A priori
7.00
0.39
1.40
1.17
1.30
1.40
1.17
1.43
1.40
1.17
1.07
1.40
1.17
1.01
1.40
1.17
0.91
0.00
0.58
0.89
0.00
0.58
4.96
5.78
5.75
6.23
5.56
5.21
5.57
4.71
1
3
2
4
3
2
4
1
Radio and TV:
Regression, 1953-61... 7.00
A priori.
7.00
A priori. ,
7.00
0.46
1.40
1.17
0.93
1.40
1.17
1.41
1.40
1.17
0.94
1.40
1..17
1.15
1.40
1.17
0.89
0.00
0.58
1.22
0.00
0.58
5.00
6.79
5.77
5.40
3.96
4.56
3.61
4.20
1
4
3
2
2
4
1
3
Engines and turbines:
Regression, 1953-61... 7.00
7.00
A priori
7.00
1.19 0.36
1.40 1.40
1.17 1.17
1.00
1.40
1.17
2.41
1.40
1.17
0.34
1.40
1.17
0.73
0.00
0.58
0.97
0.00
0.58
8.50
9.35
9.20
9.06
23.61
23.78
23.65
23.79
1
4
3
2
1
4
2
3
'•Shown without weights.
1
An alternative would be to show a weight of 1.0 for each day of the week.
Technical Papers and Background Materials
ions are usually insignificant and rarely impair the
sefulness of the trading-day adjustment technique.
TESTS OF ALTERNATIVE TRADING-DAY ADJUSTMENTS
The regression method has been tested with real
conomic series and artificial series that contain a
nown trading-day pattern. Table 2 presents the
esults of a few of the tests upon economic series.
The criterion used to evaluate alternative tradig-day adjustments of economic series is that the
est method is the one resulting in the smallest
ion th-to-month change, without regard to sign, in
tie irregular or unexplained variation (referred to
sT). It is not sufficient, however, to make this
etermination only for the Historical" period from
rhich the estimates were made. A "historical11
omparison is biased if the estimates of one or the
ther method, by fitting the data too closely, exlain not only the trading-day variation, but part of
tie irregular variation. A more sufficient test is
3 apply the estimates made for the "historical"
eriod to the "current period," where methods that
re too sensitive to the historical irregular fluclations and those which inadequately allow for the
haracteristics of trading-day variation will both
ield large fluctuations that will be included in the
omputed T.
Evaluation, therefore, consists of the following
teps: ( l ) estimate trading-day variation with each
icthod from an historical period; (2) make the
rading-day adjustment to the historical and curent data with the historical estimate; (3) obtain an
rregular component by seasonally adjusting the_
ombined historical and current data and compute I
3r each period; and (4) compare the I's from the
arious methods giving particular attention to the
urrent period.
Results of the following tests are shown in table
Retail sales .—For the period 1953-63, sales of
iree retail kinds of business were adjusted for
rading-day variation by regression estimates comuted from the period 1953-61 and also 1957-61.
'hese regression adjustments are compared with
rading-day adjustments based upon average rates
f sales on each day of the week computed from unublished daily retail sales for 1962 that are availble at the Census Bureau. They also are comared with series not adjusted for trading days.
The regression estimates for 1953-61 yield the
mallestPs, even for the current period of 1962-63
'here we might expect the results to be biased in
ivor of the 1962 daily sales rates. The 1957-61
stimates are next best, followed by the daily sales
ates and no adjustment.
Even though the unpublished estimates of the
962 daily sales are not up to the usual Census
ublication standards, 9 the seven average daily
9
The 1962 daily sales were voluntarily reported
f about a fourth of the 1,600 respondents in the
63
rates are based on more evidence than is often
available for an external adjustment and they appear to be reasonably close to what our experience
would suggest as the daily sales pattern (see table
2 ) , This comparison strongly suggests that external observation of the daily pattern of activity
does not provide an adequate basis f o r a trading-day
adjustment.
Building permits . —For U.S. building permits,
regression estimates coir|puted from the period
1954-61 are compared with a 5-day week which
might be selected a priori and with the series not
adjusted for trading days. The regression estimate s and the 5 - day-week ac justment yield approximately the same results for the historical period
and for the current period
1962-63. They substantially reduce the irregujla r fluctuations found in
the series not adjusted for rading days.
Manufacturers' shipmen; . —For manufacturers'
shipments in four selected industries, regression
estimates computed from the period 1953-61 are
compared with two sets of weights that might be
selected a priori: ( l ) Weights for a 5-day week,
and ( 2 ) weights where Satu :day and Sunday receive
partial weights . The regres sion estimates are also
compared with the series not adjusted for trading
days. The a priori weights where Saturday and
Sunday receive partial wei ghts have been found to
be appropriate for the aggregate shipment series
and they might be expected to be appropriate for
each component.
The regression estimatejs yield the smallestTin
the historical period for each of the four series. In
the current period 1962-63, they are best for two
series while the a priori weights where Saturday
and Sunday receive partial (weight are best for one
series and no adjustment flor trading days is best
for one series.
These four selected manufacturer's shipments
series contain larger irregular variations than do
the retail sales data.
Tljie differences between
alternative adjustments are small relative to the
magnitude of land the results are less conclusive.
This test illustrates the fac-t that for highly irregular series the possible gain in trading-day adjustment of a series is small.
Reference 5 (see end of ipaper) will give a further discussion of the value of adjusting highly
irregular series for trading-day variation.
These tests (and other tests on real and artificial series shown in reference 5) suggest that the
regression method perform$ quite well in comparison to other alternatives.
weekly survey of stores with 10 or less outlets.
The number of reports by kjnd of business is quite
small, 27 for furniture stores, 36 for lumber and
building materials dealersj and 17 for hardware
stores and the daily data, therefore, contains some
inaccuracies.
Technical Papers and Background Materials
64
REFERENCES
Eisenpress,Harry, "Regression Techniques Applied to Seasonal Corrections and Adjustments
for Calendar Shifts," Journal of the American
Statistical Association, vol. 51, No. 276, December 1956, pp. 615-620.
Marris, Stephen N., "The Measurement of Calendar Variation," Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, I960, pp. 345360.
3. Shiskin, Julius, Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, Occasional Paper 57, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1957,
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October
1957),
4.
Specifications for the X-9 version of Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program are
available from the Chief Economic Statistician,
Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C, 20244.
5.
Young, Allan, "The Estimation of Trading-Day
Variation in Monthly Economic Time Series,"
(in preparation) .
Appendixes
(Standard appendixes A through E are omitted from this issue)
Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown ere previously or have been
revised-historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this append x are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5.
Jan.
Year
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees)
1948
1949
1950
1951.......
1952
1953
1954
1.4
2.8
1.9
1.0
1.5
0.9
2.9
1.9
2.5
1.9
1.0
1.5
1.0
2.5
1.4
3.3
1.7
1.0
1.4
1.0
2.8
1955
1956.......
1957. ......
1958
1959
I960
1.5
1.7
1.5
3.6
1.9
1.6
1.3
2.1
1.6
3.1
1.7
1-9
1.5
1.8
1.6
3.4
1.7
2.3-
1.5
1.0
2.8
1.1
3.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
2.3
1.3
3.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.2
2.3
1.6
3.0
0.8
1.8
3.1
1.4
2.1
1.8
2.6
0.8
1.9
1.3
1.6
2.2
1.4
2.6
1.0
1.8
1.0
2.0
2.2
1.5
2.8
1.1
1.7
0.9
2.3
2.0
1.7
2.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.1
1.2
1.5
1.0
2.5
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.8
3.3
1.7
2.4
1.3
2.0
2.0
2.9
1.6
2.3
1.7
1.9
1.7
2.5
1.8
2.5
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.6
1.9
2.4
1.7
1.6
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.6
1.4
1.8
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.5
1.5
1.6
2.6
1.3
1.7
2.9
1.8
2.4
2.6
1.5
1.5
2.9
2.0
1.9
2.8
7.90
7.05
10.84
11.44
12.32
9.94
11.14
7.67
7.13
12.40
11.72
12.89
9.96
12.60
15.74
15.78
13.58
15.36
14.57
14-62
16.42
15.73
12.54
14.62
15.76
14-86
1.4
3-2
1.4
1.1
2.0
2.7
2.4
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries ( Bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
7.33
7.17
7.47
15.10
10.85
14.45
9-99
7.31
7.04
7.57
13.98
10.55
14.21
10.31
7.76
6.61
7.78
14-71
13.11
13-34
9.72
7.97
6.22
8.56
13.84
12.66
13-69
10.17
8.25
6.10
9.24
13.28
11.06
13-58
9-75
8.86
5.75
9-35
13.05
13.16
13.20
10.29
8.80
6.02
11.71
12.58
11.82
12.35
10.50
8.89
6.69
13.85
11.13
11.94
10.89
10.45
11.94
11.08
12.53
9.71
11.69
8.58
6.93
12.16
11.92
11.81
9-99
12.64
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960.......
13-48
15.72
15.16
11.62
15.52
15-68
13.92
14.61
15.64
11.67
16.90
15.52
14.96
15.04
15.14
12.66
16.98
15.27
14.24
15.69
14.11
11.69
17.08
14.92
14-51
15.16
14-58
12.44
16.30
15-36
14.84
15.06
14.23
13.13
16.72
15.43
14-98
14.75
13.43
13.40
16.08
15.25
15.04
17.73
14-03
13.32
14.62
15.65
15.74
14-78
13.64
13.64
15.25
15.69
15-74
14.84
12.96
14.63
15.48
14.50
8.37
6'. 89
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corporati ons (Bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950.......
1951.......
1952
1953
1954
1*43
1.47
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
2.19
3.34
2.84
1.52
2.15
2.27
...
...
...
...
1^64
1.45
i!si
1.48
2.68
3.05
2.43
1.51
2.32
2.02
3.25
2.71
1.90
1.70
2.44
1.78
...
...
l!67
1.79
...
:••
3.35
2.65
1.82
1.73
2.53
2.10
All data are seasonally adjusted.
65
Appendixes
66
Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Kaeh month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not Ic^n rhowti hero jrrvloufily or havt hcei
revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in thje a p p i u H x aio flvon It) tho Index
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5.
Jan.
Year
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
Hay
July
Aatf.
| fopt.
Oft.
Dl. Diffusion index for Average workweek, manufacturing — 21 ipdnr^riej (H-n>ot n
194H
1949
1050
1951
195?
'1933
10 y+
42.9
19.0
76.2
19.0
85.?
35.?
31-0
38.1
26.2
88.1
57.1
45.2
38.1
33-3
54.8
9-5
76.2
85.?
4.8
66.?
35.?
50.0
21.4
81.0
64.3
35-7
52.4
35.7
40.5
9.5
50.0
195^
1956
1957
1958
1959
1 960
81.0
19.0
73.8
19.0
88.1
38.1
100.0
14.3
35.?
21.4
88.1
14.3
76.2
35.?
35-7
28.6
90.5
19.0
95.2
2,1.4
0.0
61.9
85.7
59.5
Bi.o
16.7
7.1
92.9
54.8
45.2
38.1
38.1
Hew,
T
5^.8
11.9
92.9
50.0
42.9
100.0
11.9
52.4
19.0
81.0
4.8
?3.8
76.2
31.0
85.?
14.3
40.5
35.7
64.3
71.4
,-.6.2
90.5
7-1
40.5
16.7
61. M
30.0
50.0
61.0
7.1
81.0
6.V
4<}.;
*l< .«•
71.4
4?. 6
kO.J?
01.0
59.5
21.4
21.4
83-3
28.6
64.3
21.4
26.2
40.5
95.2
16.?
14.3
50.0
88.1
6)1.9
0.0
69.0
31.0
11.0
S3. 3
59.5
54. 8
54.6
19. C
88.1
71.4
4.8
26.2
?1.4
95.2
90.5
35.7
7.1
73.8
38.1
83.3
28.6
16.?
4. a
90.5
35.?
7.1
1 Pot?,
nto»'/t*l)
/3.4
61. ^
4,V<
83. J
26.6
4.8
88.1
40.5
26.2
14.3
90.5
61.9
23. 8
D b . Diffusion i ml e x f o r Va 1 ue o f mf r s . ' n ew o rd e r s , d ur ah 1 e Rood a in d us , — 16 Indus, ma t e r i a 1. n ( 0 - 1 no . 1 n 1.
1948
1949
1950
1951
195?
1953
1954-
90.5
61.9
23.8
66.?
34.7
38.1
95.2
23.8
54.8
19-4
56.9
21.4
100.0
33.3
66.?
330
4?. 2
28^6
100.0
9.5
57.1
6.9
80.6
83.3
95.2
4.8
42.9
8.3
75.0
90.3
4?. 2
19.4
30.6
75-0
54.2
87.5
38.9
2?. 8
56.9
77.8
31.9
83.3
44.4
31.9
63.9
81.9
48.6
69.4
50.0
19.4
69.4
63.9
55-6
72.2
58.3
2?. 8
81.9
19.4
51.4
70.8
33.3
4?. 2
91.?
41.?
41.?
30.8
?6.9
92-3,?
38.5
30.8
46.2
15-4
69.2
84.6
30.8
23.1
?6.9
15.4
76.9
69.2
30.8
38.5
80.8
61.5
23.1
84.6
46.2
23.1
46.2
92.3
61.5
23-1
93.3
15-*
38.5
30.8
7^.9
53.8
46.2
92.3
?.?
38.5
?.?
69.2
38.5
53.8
100.0
0.0
50.0
?.?
61.5
69.2
69.2
30.8
23.1
53.8
38.5
84.6
46.2
23.1
46.2
53.8
38.5
?6.9
42.3
30.8
38.5
53.8
38.5
?6.9
23.1
26.9
46.2
61.5
38.5
76.9
15.43S.5
69.2
53.8
38.5
84.6
30.8
30.8
?6.9
53.8
46.2
76.9
38.5
30.8
92.3
69.2
46.2
L
57 'I
95.2
23.8
76.2
8.3
88.9
78*. 6
?1.4
28.6
42.9
31-9
65.3
...
85.'?
71.4
4g . 9
66.?
...
Bl.O
76.2
/4.9
57.1
2.3.6
61.9
81.0
66.7
57.1
41.7
81.0
81.0
33-3
5^.8
33-3
90.5
88.1
38.1
81.0
50.0
1958
1959
I960
91-7
43.1
48.6
40.3
93.1
3^.7
61.1
8?. 5
75.0
5B.3
54.. 2
48.6
69.4
47.2
70. B
63.}'
20.8
25.0
29-2
16.7
36.1
86.1
86.1
75.0
79.2
88. 9
61.1
22 . 2
4?.?
43.1
36.1
30.6
23.6
41.
y
3?-5
33.3
D23. Diffusion index for Index of industrial materials prices — 13 industrial matorialH (.^-niont-h interval)
1948.......
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1955
1956.
1957
-.
Seasonally adjusted components are used for the indexes.
46.2
46.2
100.0
30.8
46.2
100.0
2?. a
80.6
30.8
34.6
23.1
61.5
15.4
38-5
38.5
61,5
38.5
1GO.G
23.1
23.1
46.2
61.5
?6.9
53.6
23.1
92.3
5?-?
30.8
76.9
53.8
15.4
84.6
46.2
38.5
69.2
53.8
7.7
69.2
53. B
30.8
15.4
as. 9
72. a
23.1
46.2
100.0
38-5
11.5
46.2
61.5
30.8
61.5
92.3
46.2
30. 8
38.5
53. B
61.5
46.2
15.4
53. B
5,3. B
23.1
53- B
30.8
15.4
61.5
46.2
^ 30.8
Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDEXES
(Page numbers)
Charts
Series
number 1
Tables
Appendixes
F4
1
1
2
3....
4
5....
6....
7....
9....
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
10
11
12
13....
14....
15....
16....
17
18....
19....
9
9
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
20
21
22
23....
24....
25....
26....
29....
12
12
11
12
9
12
12
9
30....
31....
32....
37....
8
12
12
12
40
41....
42....
43....
45....
46....
47....
49....
13
13
13
13
13
13
14
U
50....
51....
52....
53....
54....
55....
57....
58....
14
15
15
15
15
15
14
2
3
4
48
48
5
53
53
49
49
49
49
48
••
••
53
54
54
53
48
50
55
50
55
51
51
55
54
51
51
54
50
50
55
1
2
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
25
24
24
25
22
25
25
23
6
6
6
6
22
25
25
25
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
27
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
3
4
6
••
tf
1t
•*
••
••
••
7
56
56
56
56
56
56
8
57
57
57
57
57
57
9
A2
B2
62
58
..
58
••
62
C2
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
D2
E3
••
65
65
63
64
••
••
..
..
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
..
••
-•
•-
56
56
57
57
56
56
57
57
56
58
..
58
58
•«
56
57
58
••
••
•••
••
62
62
64
63
63
62
63
63
58
••
62
56
57
58
•-
62
56
56
57
57
58
58
56
56
56
57
57
57
58
56
56
57
57
56
57
57
57
56
56
57
57
62
62
••
••
62
62
62
62
58
58
58
••
••
**
••
••
63
63
63
64
63
64
63
62
62
57
• • 56
-
•-
62
56
56
2
58
57
57
..
••
57
58
56
56
••
16 • •
61
52
7 28
••
••
62.... 16
52
7 28
••
52
7 28
64.... 16
65.... 16
7 28
66.... 16
7 28
67.... 16
7 28
52
-•
68.... 16
7 28
^ee back cover for series titles and sources.
3
Page number shown is for the September 1963 issue.
5
65
65
65
65
65
66
66
65
66
66
65
Jan. '64
Feb. '64
May '64
Nov. '63
July '63
May '64
65
May '64
66
66
66
Aug. "'63
Nov. '63
Mar. '64
68
June '63
66
Dec. '63
66
66
66
Jan. '64
Dec. '63
Dec. '63
66
66
66
68
Oct .
Jan.
Mar.
June
66
66
66
Feb. '64
Mar. '64
Feb. '64
66
66
Oct. '63
Oct. '63
66
Apr. '64
68
June '64
66
Apr. '64
••
••
65
63
63
65
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
63
63
63
64
64
issue
••
63
64
63
63
63
63
63
64
page
' 63
'64
'64
' 63
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
65
65
••
Page number shown is for the April 1964 issue.
^Before May 1964, this appendix was "G".
67
Index
68
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDEXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
Chart s
Seriesx
number
1
2
3
j»Live . ~i*^
i
Table 3
4
5
1
2
3 1 4
5
6
7
8
9
„p
A^
b"
a
u
"
y*
Is
W5<
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
19
18
18
IB
19
17
17
17
17
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
30
29
29
29
30
29
29
29
29
90
91
92....
93 ....
18
18
18
19
19
18
19
19
19
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
29
30
30
30
30
29
30
30
30
95....
96
97
98
121...
122...
123...
20
20
20
?1
126. . . 21
127... 21
128... 21
01....
D5....
06....
Oil...
019. . .
D23...
034. . .
035...
036...
D41 . . .
D47...
048.. .
054...
D58...
34
34
6/4
tV4
64
b/
b/
64
b/
b/
64
64
65
43
40
41
42
39
39
38
38
35
jf
45
39
38
38
46
47
39
35
•'•See back cover for series titles and sources.
Page number shown is for the September 1963 issue.
u*>f
6
b/
36
37
36
36
37
37
37
34
34
t
05
64
64
35
35
061...
3
(^
V
64
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
isau
f
2
Page number shown is for the April 1964 issue.
^Before May 1964, this appendix was "tj".
66
May ' 64
66
66
May ' 6/
May ' 6/
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. **M** indicates monthly series and*'Q M indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM'* or **EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series pr^^eHed by an asterisk(*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30. Nonagriculturol placements, all industries (M).—Department of
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1, Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4, Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries (M).--
Department of Labof, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Labor, Bureau of Empl syment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
J
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agtnts Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased mater ials(M). -
National Association
Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of th e Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
*6.
*7.
*9.
10.
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Construction contracts awarded for commercial ond industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, andF. W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
*12.
13.
*14.
15.
*16.
porations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employ*
ees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).— Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-
porations (Q).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20* Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies (EOM).— Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
*21, Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22, Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all
industries (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23, Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24* Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries(M).— Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25* Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods Indus*
tries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
15NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
46.
*47.
*49.
*50.
*51.
*52.
53.
*54.
*55.
57.
males, spouse present (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).—
Department of Labor, Buteau of Labor Statistics
Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Unemployment rate, total (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M).--Department of Lax>r, Bureau of Employment Security
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).--National
Industrial Conference Bpard and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Gross national product in current dollars (Q). —Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Busine; s Economics
Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federa Reserve System
Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerces, Office of Business Economics
Sales of retail stores (M),--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).-^Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Final sales (series 49 ninus series 21) (Q).--Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LACGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerc^, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and Salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Govei nors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by 3ureau of the Census
*64« Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM)*™Departrnent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65* Book value of manufactun rs' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing Industrie s (EOM).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System- FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68* Index of labor cost per dc Mar of real corporate gross national
product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enter*
prises to value of corps rate product in 1954 dollars) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National
Income Division
'
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Continued on reverse!
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE U»K TO AVOID
PAYMENT Or POSTAGE, »XKJ
<OPC»
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D. c.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES -Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).--Na;ional
81. Index of consumer prices (M),--Department of Labor, Bureau of
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M)<-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cosh payments to the public (M),—Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M),—Treasury Depart-
ment, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of
differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).--Treasury Department, Bu-
reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget, Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment,
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal ReSystem
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart-
Industrial Conference Board; eomponen: industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Resrarch,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Europejan Countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, Index of industrial production (M).-Organ-
ization for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).--Dominion Hurrau
of Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, index of Industrial production (M).—Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
126. France, index of industrial production (M).--Organisation for
Economic Cooperation ami Development
127.
Italy, index of industrial
production (M).--Or#anixatu n for
Economic Cooperation and Development
128* Japan, Index of Industrial production (M)*"-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Japan); seasonal adjustment by
compiler and Bureau of the Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).*-See series 47.
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).-De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Deportment obligations, procurement (M).--Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-
The "D** preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for 1)1, D5, I>6, 1)11, D19, 1323, 1)41, D47, D54, and D61. Stiurcos for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National City Bank
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of scries components.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally a d j u s t e d by Na:ional
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W, Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federol income and product account (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96* Manufacturers'unfilled orders, durable goods Industries (EOM)«—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35.
D36.
D48.
D58.
Net soles, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Brad:street,
Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Oun anJ hradstreet,
Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
Freight carloodings (Q), —Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department .if Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment I h y jHureau
of the Census
@FedFRASER