Full text of Business Conditions Digest : March 1966
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March 1966
DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY
Series ESI No. 66-3
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
iii
iv
.
.
„
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
dfeiBi]© ©oHlfe
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months _„
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present „_
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
8
10
24
dJ
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods _ _
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
„
_^
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components -.
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CONTINUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
________.,,___„-„__.
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ „ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ „ _ _ „ „ _ , = . „ . _ _ _ _ . : , „ _ TABLE 1, Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
._________________„„„_„_
58
62
63
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 „ _ _ _ _ „ „ _ „ „ „ „ „ „ _ „ . _ „ . _ „
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators „ _
____„_„__-_„._,,„,.,__„„«,„
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
„_____________________„
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series _ _ _ „ _ „ _ _ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ „ _ „ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961 „-„-—„_„„„_„„„_.,„___
71
Series Finding Guide
73
„_.
n
._____-.____„_„„_„_„____„„_
65
66
67
70
D A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
There are no changes as described
above in this issue.
The April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on April 22.
111
Programs for Jim©
Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.
A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.
IV
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac-
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
&>
NBER Leading Indicators,—Series that usually
reach peaks Or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
^
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
j^>
NBER Lagging Indicators,—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
MiTOOE) ©F
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows :
£>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).-— Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
t>
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places,
E>
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month, An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how-
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather, Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for 4MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
ANMYTDCAiL MiASUIi!
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
Digitized1961).
for FRASER
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes, (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a uo" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
OF CYCOCM PAWiiNS
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles, These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates,of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12"-December)
Solid line indicates monthly data, v r (Data may be actual monthly fig- >^ r\
ures or MCD moving averages.*;
Broken tine indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
JUUJJLU
^JUIJJLLLlJL
JULUUUULL
JULLUUUU
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted,
("II" = second quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12"==
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted 1V&, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
DA x
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
^^
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg ....
2. Accession ratet manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial .
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg 6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
16 Corporate profits after taxes6.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg —
18 Profits per dol. of sales mfg .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries6.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries6'7.
31. Change in book value, 7manufacturing
and trade inventories
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inven-7
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buy ing policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable
goods industries
,
23. Industrial materials prices*. . . „
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagri cultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males .
45. Avg, weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
Nov.
1965
Unit of
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
do...
.
BiLdol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space . .
Bit. dol
... .do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59=100..
do
Number ;
Mil. dol
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59=100..
Cents
Percent
1941-43-10 . . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
... do
do
Percent
do
... do..
BiLdol
1957-59=100 . .
Thous
do..
Percent
do
do
46. Help- wanted advertising
„ . ...
1957-59=100 . .
47. Industrial production
do
6
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
„
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do.. .
49. GNP in current
dollars6
»
6
do
57. Final sales
.....do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
52. Personal income
do.
do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
54. Sales of retail stores
,
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59-100..
Dec.
1965
41.4
5.0
544
1.3
120
41.4
r4.9
563
1.3
125
1953 to Feb. '65 Feb. '65
to date to date
1965
(without (without
(with
sign)4
sign)3
sign)5
Jan.
1966
Feb.
1966
r41.5
P4.8
570
pl.l
111
P41.6
(NA)
600
(NA)
106
Current percent change2
Nov.
to
Dec.
1965
Dec. '65
to
Jan.
1966
Jan.
to
Feb.
1966
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.2
17.1
0.3
5.9
2.1
6.7
14.7
+0.1
+1.9
+0.8
+1.6
-0.4
0.0
+0.2
-2.0
-2.0
+1.2
+3.5
0.0 +15.4
-4.2 +11.2
+0.2
(NA)
+5.3
(NA)
+4.5
4.2
+0.9
+2.8
-7.8
+6.0
+4.5
+1.6
-3.5
+1.4
-1.3
+2.5
+6.7
+5.9
-6.7
+1.1
(NA)
(NA)
212
206
222
219
5.0
22.39
r23.40
r4.58
r23.77
r4.42
•;.23.46
P4.53
3.8
4.2
2.5
2.9
+0.9
+1.5
64.36
r5.35
60.04
P5.41
9.3
4.7
10.4
9.0
3.4
7.8
+1.0
+1.4
+7.8
1,531
113.1
105.3
17,418
66.65
rl,735
116.9
105.9
16,999
128.06
rl,558
rill. 4
108.7
17,677
111.67
6.3
4.0
0.9
2.8
29.7
-0.7
-0.4
+0.1
+0.2
94.59
7.2
3.6
0.8
2.5
18.7
-5.3
+13.3 -10.2 -16.9
-9.3
+3-4 -4.7
+0.6 +2.6
(NA)
(NA)
-2.4 +4.0
-92.1 +12.8 +15.3
40
48
37
36
12.3
15.4
-0.8
-20.0
+22.9
+2.7
P45.9
105.1
r!06.5
105.1
P105.2
5.6
0.6
6.0
1.7
0.7
3.1
+1.7
+0.2
-2.0
+1.3
-1.3
+0.1
4.3
1.3
+0.8
91.73
93.32
92.69
2.5
1.6
+0.6
-0.5
+1.7
-0.7
2.3
2.0
+0.4
+0.2
+6.0
-9.0
(NA)
+1.0
-1.6
4.32
60.33
5.05
(NA)
(NA)
p6.22
pl,294
plOl.O
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P13.3
92.15
+10 a
+10.2
14-16.2
p+7.2
(NA)
3.6
4.8
+1.0
r+2.0
p+0.4
(NA)
1.5
1.8
50
48
48
46
6.5
5.9
-2.0
-4.0
0.0
-4.2
63
63
68
67
5.3
2.6
+0.3
0.0
+7.9
-1.5
66
72
74
85
7.5
6.5
+1.7
+9.1
+2.8
+14-9
+0.78
115.5
r+1.09
117.1
r+1.23
120.5
p+0.91
122.8
0.48
1.3
0.31
1.3
+0.01
+0.31 +0.14
+2.9
+1.4
-0.32
61,472
68,641
4.2
2.0
r6l,884
68,955
4.1
1.8
r 62, 146 p62,404
69,286
69,079
4.0
3.7
1.9
1.9
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4
0.4
+0.4
+0.3
+2.4
+2.3
0.4
3.2
5.4
0.0
+0.9
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
4.2
2.5
+1.9
181
146.4
186
rl48.7
184
rl50.1
pl90
P151.3
3.0
1.0
3.2
0.8
+2.3
+0.7
1.5
2.0
1.9
+1.5
+2.0
+1.9
3,198.1 p3,263.9
r552.3
P556.3
rl47.9
P149.4
r25,0l6 p24,603
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.6
0.5
0.8
0.9
2.0
0.8
0.7
1.1
0.2
0.?
624.4
697.2
687.1
3,178.9
546.1
145.6
r24,647
3,249.6
550.9
146.9
r24,8l6
103.2
103.1
103. A
D103.8
+0.7
+0.5
+2.4
+10.0
0.0
+0.4
+0.5
+2.4
-5.6
0.0
t(NA)
+1.9
+0.4
-0.3
+7.5
0.0
0.0
+2.8
+1.6
-1.1
+0.9
+3.3
+0.8
+1.2
+0.6
+0.6
+0.5
+2.2
+0.9
+0.9
+0.7
-1.6
+0.3
+0.7
+0.8
+2.1
+0.7
+1.0
-1.7
+0.?
_n i
+n •*
-*-n /
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
TABLE
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unitof
measure
Nov.
1965
Dec.
1965
55.35
98.6
r97.8
98.9
. . . do . . . p!06.4
67.2
Bil. dol
r68.0
,p68.4
22.9
65,460
23.1
66,107
P23.3
66,729
Jan.
1966
Feb.
1966
f
1953 to Feb. '65 Feb. 65
to date to date
1965
(with
(without (without
signp
sign)5
sign) ^
Current percent change 2
Nov.
to
Dec.
1965
Dec. '65
to
Jan.
1966
Jan.
to
Feb.
1966
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP5
64. Book value of mfrs/ inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59-100 ..
do
Mil. dol
Percent
3.2
0.6
0.6
+4.0
0.0
-0.8
+1.1
+3.3
+0.6
(NA)
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.7
+0.4
+0.7
+1.2
+0.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.6
0.8
0.6
1.0
+0.4
+1.0
+0.9
+1.0
+0.9
+0.9
(NA)
(NA)
2.0
2.0
+2.0
+5.4
4.4
3.9
4.3
8.4
6.7
13.6
+1.8
+1.3
-0.8
-13.5
-4.8
+13.5
+16.6
+2.2
-18.3
-2.9
+5.2
+10.8
-1.8
+12.4
+55.3
-19.2
(NA)
a57.20
P99.5
5.27
4.0
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83. Federal cash receipts from public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95. Balance, Federal
income and product
account 6 ' 7
90. Defense Dept oblig., procurement
91 Defense Dept obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U S
99. New orders, defense products
93. Free reserves*7
85 Change in money supply
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do
do
MiLdol
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
98. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits
110 Total private borrowing 6
Ill
112
113
114
115
116
117
..do..
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Corporate gross savings76
Ann. rate,
Change business loans
bil. dol
do
Change consumer installment debt 7. . .
Percent
Treasury bill rate*
do
Treasury bond yields *
do
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance 76 7
89. U.S. balance of payments ' :
a. Liquidity balance basis 8
b. Official settlements basis
81. Consumer prices
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.
.
do
Mil. dol
do
. do
do
do
1957-59-100 . .
do
Bil. dol......
do
U6.1
128.7
-17. A
126.4
122.5
-3.9
PH7.4
p!25.2
p-22.2
p-1.8
1,212
1,882
1,521
(NA)
2.5
27.4
2.7
25.7
4,896
2,679
2.57
-82
5,669
2,915
r2.53
-11
5,100
2,712
r3.49
r-44
(NA)
(NA)
p2.8l
p-105
13.9
24.5
22.5
98
7.9
15.6
14.9
44
+0.72
+12.36
r+7 .20
p-2.16
3.11
8.63
+0.01 t-11.64
-5.16
-9.36
+7.80
+12.36
r+7.68
p+1.92
2.52
4.24
-0.50
+4.56
-4.68
-5.76
11.5
4.3
14.5
1.1
+5.8
+0.7
1.39
0.87
6.7
1.6
1.4
2.5
3.88
0.70
2.0
0.9
1.2
1.8
-0.49 KL0.52
-0.02 -0.12
+6.9
+1.5
+2.1
+0.9
+1.1
43.2
+2.3
+1.4
(-3.39
-0.30
+5.5
0.0
40.4
-0.6
-7.02
(NA)
+1.5
+4.1
+3.0
+3.4
0.1
3.8
3.0
58.4
0.4
9.8
6.2
199.7
+2.0
+0.4
-2.2
+4.9
+2.0
+6.9
+28.5 -183.7
+1.4
-4.6
-4.9
-8.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
341
(NA)
618
763
+86
-223
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
0.2
4.7
1.3
7.4
+0.2
+0.7
+1.3
+7.4
0.0
-2.6
(NA)
(NA)
+1.4
P143.1
p!31.7
P-11.4
p72,972
p56,244
+0.32
+7.88
4.08
4.34
4.75
3.46
+10.84
+7.76
4-36
4.43
4.90
3.54
r+14.23
+7.46
4.60
4-43
4.92
3.52
5.70
5.62
5.51
2,408.2 2 , 3 5 5 . 8 2,248.6
1,903.3 2,034-6 1,935.5
+504.9 +321.2 +313.1
p+7.21
(NA)
4.67
4.61
5.07
3.64
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p-388
P-1,249
110.6
141
61.44
111.0
153
r62.53
P19.40
111.0
149
r63.77
(NA)
(NA)
p64.68
+3.1 +15.8 -10.0
+8.8
-7.0
+6.7
-1.6 +37.9
+2.9
-11
+71
-33
+0.4
+8.5
+1.8
+6.8
+2.0
(NA)
(NA)
-19.5
-61
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA - not available. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4,5,14,15, 40, 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see-footnote 7 for other "change" qualification^.
^This average is based on month-tomonth
(or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in phis
or
8
This
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure
as the basic data, father than in percent,
9
balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Mil?)
(Jylj) ».)
P I
(Hq) (Fti.)
P
bed
bed
MARCH 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Con^frTcontifacts, coifu and indus. (mil. sq.
CHART
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
14. liab. of bus. failures
. dol.jnyerted seokJACJ} Jlfflfj
QV8.-6 terjr
15. Large bus. failures (no. jier wk.nverted scale. MOD moving avg,-6 te
bed
CHART
MARCH 1966
BASIC
DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
profits to incorie originating, corporate
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q ann. rate, bil. do I.)
IsL_Change i n _ o k _ v a l , _ m = f g a n
1
trade inventories (onn. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-^ term) I
,_._^^__
...
20. Change in book value, mfr
materials and supplies (< nn. rate, bil. dot
MCD
37. Ptfrehasea1 maferiajs, >erci)ir reporting ligfier inventories
26. Buying policy, prod
percent reporting comm tments 60 days or longer
.MCD^mov ing^avg.^4 tern)
beef
bed
• BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
65 -,
60
.
f
i
Employees in nonajri. estc blishments (mi lions)
60
ujyiLMujy ^ ; ^ m
9ii§ niif; ten ' ?» 11
15
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
r—
--| —
j
yiiijli^.., , t , ? _ Ijy^uJiEJdjij^
=^^=^-=-1^—
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http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
V;
bed
MARCH 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
exc. fa m prod, and hods (incex: 195
CHART
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Investment expenditures
61. BJS. expeid., new plant ind equff^, Q (ann. rote, bil. dol.
~9=i<iL - JTI
68. Labor cost per dol. of real cot p._GNP,
QJindexj 1957-5^=1001
6A.Jfook_vaye_of mfrs^ jnvdntorl
t========T
'
"~
F
=-^=jj=-:=
?^^-
-=-
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods
=—
=
^S~
^~~~*1
i
—
66. C< nsumer installment debt] (bil. do
!
67. Bank rates on short-term
bil. dol!)
LL
bed
CHART
bed
MARCH 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
:
ed. cash payments
MCD n ovirtg avg.-$
Fed. cash surplus or deficit (c nn. rate, bit: dol.
^fvn^
r^*^ . ;="
^te^S^^lCE^,.-- /.iifliilEIi^
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
93. Free reserves, (bit. dol.)
in imoney supply (jdnn. rat^, percent
MCD moving avg. —6
_
L
.
.
term)
j
;
198. Change in money supply arid time deposits
M
(ann. rate, percent. MCD moving ayg. —6 term)
4
l)fli
J1(L^Tblal priyqtej)orrpwing
111. Co porate Gross savings, Q
^t2TCt>dnge in lousiness loans (iqrin. fcie/bil. dol
MCD moving avg.-5 term)
•
'
consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dot.
bed
"AKCH "66
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
1 5
-
4
-
3
nrfnr 2
118. Mortgcge yields (percent)
juwjuuuJ^^
21
CHART
BAS|C
DATA
MARCH 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Merchandise
4—term moving
89; U.S; balance of payments, Q (bit. idoh
81. Consumer prices ;{mte 1957-59=100)
,11 ilii 111 luJUliil ifJlfiilniu'L s • ' : .'lujjil
b. Official settlements
basis (prel)
!
bed
CHART
MARCH
1966
BASIC
DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
i
:
I
*
4J. United
- .States (index: p957-59=
iiliiJiluluJiiiuliiuiliiy ituJ MM;
mis HIM
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
3. Layoff rate,
30. Nonagricultural placements, manufacturing
all industries,
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs x
6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
4-0.5
40.3
40.6
40.2
40.4
40 2
4.2
557
4 0
4.0
3 9
3.8
3.8
553
551
557
565
543
2.1
2.4
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
128
127
127
125
133
120
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, '•
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
40.4
40.3
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.5
40.6
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.7
4.0
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.7
152
121
107
138
95
July
August
September
October
November
December
40 1
40.6
40.6
40.8
40 6
40.7
40 7
40 8
40 6
40 7
40.9
41.2
3
4
4
3
3
4
4
18
18
18
16
17
16
1 Q
1 c:
116
125
98
122
111
121
118
/ 0
534
532
523
522
5?Q
518
523
507
Q Q
51 #
i n
4 1
/ n
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41 2
41.2
41 3
41 0
41 1
41 0
41.0
41.0
40 9
41 2
41 4
/l /
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
303
305
300
304
299
310
310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3.07
2.94
2.93
3.05
3.16
3.07
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
19 7Z
3
3
3
3
62
Al
/6
61
Q3
Q?
77
77
AQ
7Q
1964
January
February
March
April
Ma
y .;:;...:;;::;
June
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
r41.5
[H] p41 6
8
0
0
9
8
1
0
284
270
277
265
262
19 50
19 26
20 46
Q1
oy y
1Q
1 5
1 91
-] Q Q-|
51/
1 6
Q?
9/5
pyq
1Q A9
3
3
3
3
3
3
533
1 5
89
59;
16
10Q
262
951
1Q / 5
pn 7p
3 88
3 Q9
4 0
599
Ti /.4
91
4 0
4 3
3 9
4 1
4 5
4.1
4 2
4 5
4 5
5/Q
cpc*
q Q£.
J3*
70
3 AD
y no
y r)d
cqc
533
K.) d
5/1
537
59Q
5/7
1
y
-|
c
1
/
1. y4
1 A
-|
«7
1 q
cy y
-) q
J-. J
"i 3
r/ <3
t£q
1
p4.8
(NA)
EQ600
OH5 0
2O;>
570
rui7Q
i /
3
Inlnl 1
fMA^
n -in
1 np
i /n
121
110
A/
A/
1 on
-J OR
257
260
py
*c4Jq
p/ s
1Q tw
20 02
Pl pc
qy
9*7
91 1 3
937
91
9T7
99 n/
pn QQ
99/
opy
71
4 H7
y AQ
4.
uy
91 .31
<1
JA.
pq-|
Op
pf)
y
q*r
py o
91
^1
y
T£
y
T e
4O->
on o
P9 1 A
4. JLp
9DQ
*duy
DO . 142
O
^<
OO "3Q
22.3"
-r'OT
yn
r^J.40
4-25
4.32
dtk4.5S
91 Q
(TT on£
111
opp
106
91Q
fill pq 79
r>93
/A
T*y
yo
r4.4-&
£ "3
P4. p3
Tl /
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; <4e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December.
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
11. Newly approved 7. New private,
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing
corporations x
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
3.72
44.61
45.11
39-42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43,88
50.81
43 . 73
45.43
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4-56
51 07
51 05
4 38
4 14
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
53 20
58 12
4 72
4 67
5/ o/
64 26
/ &/
56 13
55 28
55 90
5 0?
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1,409
1,531
1,300
1,410
1,634
1,521
108.7
97.7
98.4
98.5
98.5
98.0
98.3
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
107.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61
111 . 8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
98.9
3.30
1
1
1
1
1
3.72
T S^O
T 57 /
1 59?
119.3
116.5
113.5
1 676
1 706
121 0
123.6
1 cop
119 9
123.7
100.0
100 7
101.7
101 4
101.7
101 4
101.8
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
1 5 9 431
16,093
15 689
16,275
15 759
15,867
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144 50
S152.86
94 52
99.92
255.72
87.17
103 1
102 8
16 250
16 018
i np Q
103.7
105.3
103.9
104.0 *
103. '6
104.8
106.6
105.8
106.8
i z qqo
1 575
121 7
113.6
112 9
115.1
111 -5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110.8
105.4
107 5
1 07 A
1 nA i
1 7 07^
i
n i r?
1U4. /
1 D5
T
-I OQ
1UV
. I4
"i 1 n A
105
1 OA
-j nA
i nA
0
A
I
y
i A pU4
^n y
ID,
i A n/ ^
XD,U4J
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
2.81
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
/8 /I
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
38. Index of net
business formation
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
40.56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
3.35
2.80
4.10
285
/^8
486
652
676
1 500
/, 1Q
r^i
i T^ *5
liU -L, /?.?
/I
/Ub
I,ripi
L "M
1,571
i 5nA
i /Q.A
i ^cn
i y?5
i /#Q
i /??
4 81
5.00
1
4.52
/QC;
1 /80
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0
116 8
rim ?/ A
100.2
100.5
99.2
99.6
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Number)
16,180
15 917
15,919
15 979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(Mil. dol.)
Ql AQ
1 1 Q 9Q
nn A7
107.10
97 92
136.19
125 14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
/ Q An
A3 / £
An /Q
An
"3T
OU . JJ
rsi A / ^ A
J
1 417
IIP q
•1 QQ
1 /AS
-i ncj
n
i / A^
-3O
1, C9^-t
m
pl
.* * "
OS
K.
1 £1
rjQ
...
90
I*;
13
05
35
crn
can
1 1i n
5 1A
4
S
5
5
r5
-i
1
T^ &£;
1
i, /no
4<jy
1
1 ,/ ^A
4:?D
1oc>n
'
fH*lnA
PO
i
^31
J-, 2JJ-L
ri, /jo
T»1
^T^
-i piQ rj
iuy.
/
107. 4
104.1
mi
.i
-1 -I Q
"I
11J.1
116 .9
1 17
QA<7
1 *7 1 T O
1 A A*7T
-l ^1 Q^Q
-to, jiby
1
A Q ^"7
io,y?
r
a/ c/
i n1? ^*7
1 / A 9Q
>7Q c-i
i ^Q nQ
1 ^ 5 AA
i pn A/
"l pQ
no
n ry -i Q rt
l/,ljo
i nft ^A
in/ A
-i AC; "3
1
A •?/
ID,
^44/
17 / n o
AA A5
1 fir Q
-LUp . V
1 /L OQQ
ID
, yyy
1 r\c J
o
-LUp.
85 A7
-i pa nA
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
An n/
("WA^
\Stfi.)
03 p 5 41
(NA)
— -)
CCS
•nl 9Q/
PJ-^74
rill. 4
plOl . 0
filh nft 7
(MA")
[Ml •) rj
£.rji~,
liil /,677
/»T
fl
(NA)
\
m
Q/
A7
5Q
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (HJ for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
L
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accotmting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products.11 (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
TABLE
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
16. Corporate
15. Number of
business failures
profits after taxes
with liabilities of
$100,000 and over1
(Number per
week)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
(1957-59-100)
(Cents)
(Percent)
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries
(1941-43=10)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
38
45
40
46
42
37
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November . . .'
December
35
40
42
33
47
Z7
39
45
43
35
40
48
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
31.5
37
36
31 8
31 2
32.6
32.8
33.8
36 7
37.0
37 5
37 8
43 6
1 1 -\
•. .
100.2
100.0
100.7
100.2
100.4
8.1
11.2
8.1
11.1
99.9
99 7
100.1
100.5
100 8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100.9
101 0
101.5
100 8
100.8
101.6
101.9
101.3
101.9
101.7
100.8
101.2
101.6
100 8
100.6
101.8
102.6
102 8
102 6
103 3
H^l n/ ^ Q
8.1
10 8
8.5
11.2
8.6
11 2
8 8
11 3
9.0
11 9
8.9
11.7
9.0
11 7
8 7
11 7
rrnq &
i? n
Q 3
. .«
+4.7
+5.8
+8 1
76 45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
+3,3
+4.1
+3 8
82 00
83 41
84.85
85 44
83 96
Q£
-I 0
Q
...
rtQ
*. .
+7 %
rjc
+8 8
rtc
Q /
103 6
ins i
...
i -3 n
•..
rfn^i ^ 3~>
liypxp.
y
piy
...
Q-I
04 .91
&L
JQ
00.4?
+7 A
SiO j«
*3£i
oy.
Q-l
fw/n
\NA)
, X.
QS
55 . U4
rt/
in/ /
105 1
+4 5
A7 Q7
inq T
r>106 ?
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72 85
73.03
72 62
74.17
86 83
1 nq.yQ
j_uj
•\r\c 1
+6.4
ft,f> 1 9
irn n
®rl06 5
+5.2
62.64
i r>s Q
// ^
.. •
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
...
<3Q
yi . 39
QO T £.
92.15
91.73
fTTl , -I f\
-i
^yjj . *2O
j2
["Hlci'3
Qo
^r\
P 92.69
0rt
T «
08.19
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by [H] for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5r 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
® = February 1962.
Average for March 16, 17, and 18.
2
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies *
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(Ann. rate,
bil.doL)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil.doL)
(1957-59=100)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August . . *
September
October
November
December
1964
January
Marrh
50
49
44
44
48
48
48
48
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8-
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4 •
+1.7
-0.2
-0 7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
-1.9
-0 5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3. 5
+2.0
42
50
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
+0 57
+0 16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
98.5
98.5
98 9
102.4
100.9
48
65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
72
66
72
70
66
62
6A
62
60
66
72
+0 32
+0 81
+0 44
+0 84
+0 50
+0 58
+0.38
+0 32
+1 24
©+1 28
+0 78
r+1.09
110 6
110 7
113 2
116.7
116 9
115 3
114.6
115 2
114 8
115 0
115 5
117 1
48
46
G368
67
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
44
45
43
46
+3.1
+2 5
+3.0
+4. 6
+2.7
+5.1
+6,0
+1 8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+5.1
+2 3
+3 7
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
+14.6
+11 2
+5 0
+13.8
+8.7
+9.4
+6.1
+11.6
+8.1
+3.4
+8.2
+10.2
(H]r+l6.2
D+7 2
(NA)
-0.25
52
52
55
52
51
+3.9
+2.0
+ 5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+5.1
+1 0
+0 4
+2 5
+5 3
+1 5
0 5
+0 7
+1 4
+3 1
+0 9
+1 0
r+2 0
n+D /
(NA)
SA
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
60
61
57
061
60
58
57
60
58
/*)
60
58
I
7/
fHl^
r+1 23
P+0.91
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
120.5
0122.8
S
123 9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by [H] for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
1
0 = December^1961.
Average for March 15, 16, and 17.
2
27
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey
(Thous.)
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
in newspapers
unemployment rate,
1
State programs
(1957-59=100)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
47. Index of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
55,637
55,703
55,796
55,830
55,879
55 , 880
62,547
63,018
63,161
63,110
62,919
63,334
5 5
5 7
5.6
5.4
5 8
5.5
3 7
3.5
3.5
3 5
3.5
55,897
56,027
56,14,2
56,353
56,488
56,562
56,670
56,727
56,856
57,008
57,038
57,205
63,086
63,219
63,462
63,716
63,579
63 , 791
63,974
64,089
64,306
64,245
64,347
64,399
5 7
5 9
5 7
5 7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3 7
3 6
3 4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
4 2
4.2
4 1
4.1
4 1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4 3
57,252
57,606
57,694
57,78.1
57,864
58,033
58,190
58,301
58,499
58,370
58,879
59,163
64,621
65,084
65,208
65,765
65,774
65 , 472
65,581
65,682
65,697
65,730
66,133
66,426
5 6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5 1
5.4
5 0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4 9
5 0
3 i
2 9
2.9
2.8
2 6
2 8
2 7
2 6
2 8
3 0
2 4
2 6
4 3
4 0
3.8
3 8
3 6
3 6
3 6
3 5
3 /
3 4
1 /
3 6
1 3/
1 37
66,719
66,718
66 895
66 919
66 947
67 434
67 979
67 8l 5
4 8
5.0
4 7
4 8
4 6
4 7
4 5
4 5
2
2
2
?
?
?
7
6
5
S
*;
/
3 ^
3 3
i -27
i ^& A
"1/5
1 3Q 5
1 / n 17
9
O
67 87Q
L L
9 p
68 010
68 641
4 3
4 2
/ l
? 1
59,295
59,581
59,814
59,846
60,032
60 , 290
60 , 501
60 , 621
60,756
61,001
61,472
r6l , 884
r62 146
[TTlnAp yny
68 Q'S'S
WAQ
P8A
AQ ("1*70
1
r\
- 4'U
LHJ 3 .**}/
ful "%
3 6
3 7
2 6
2 0
run ft
0
1.9
1.9
110
108
107
107
107
0
0
7
1
8
4
4 6
4 7
e!07
119
119
119
119
119
119
4 8
4 6
e!07
e!09
119 8
120 6
A. /
elOS
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
122 7
124.4
125 6
125 6
125 4
125.7
126 1
126 1
127 0
L ?
L L
4 4
4.5
3 1
Q
"1
116
117
118
120
118
121
1 ?y
123
126
127
148
1/3
T ?1 Q
1 ?7 Q
128 4
1?Q 3
130
131
132
133
134
8
8
0
3
0
134 0
131 6
135 L
138.1
1 1A
Q
14U.V
2 9
-i ye
-| /-I
/!
?
3
3
p
-i /£
~] / P
*°?
-\ / £
145
o
*£
K.
P
1I 3 C
14^-5
Q
0
0
Q
2 7
2 6
5 A
Q
A
(771 p A
T ^O
IP*:
-i /in
1 y /
144.
T i S
144.
1 Art
•t / e T
1 &T
1 &A
i / A .4y
140
184
5Jpl9Q
T--O y £}
1140 . ^
7
rl50.1
OUpl51.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15,40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers arefor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
28
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
50. Gross
49. Gross
national product national product
in 1958 dollars in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, 52. Personal1
income
(series 49 minus allSMSA's exseries 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January.
February
March
April
May
»/••••••
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
533.6
564.4
559-2
533.5
572.0
565.6
541.2
577 0
572.5
544.9
583.1
578.4
553.7
560 o
567 1
575.9
593.1
603 6
614 o
624.2
587.3
5Q5 1
Al O 7
620.1
582.6
634.8
631 0
584.7
641.1
633.6
597.7
657.6
648.8
603.5
668.8
662.4
613 0
681 5
673 9
0624 4
IRJ697 2
0687 1
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
2 311 3
2,268 8
2,236.7
2,340.7
2,351 5
2,324.9
443 4
444 6
447.0
447.9
450 4
452 6
118 8
118 7
119 5
118.9
119 7
119 7
2,416.2
2 345 9
2 357 2
2,472.5
2 419 2
2,368.2
2 561 0
2,463.1
2 559 0
2 605 5
2 527 4
2 610 2
456 6
L^L Q
//>A 7
457 2
120
120
120
120
122
123
460 o
463 1
464 8
4.67 1
/AQ 3
Z73 2
I'll 7
/7£ q
2 571 5
481 2
2
SQO 3
p
CQT
y o-a o
/ fly *;
T
2,693.8
2,688.4
2 607 4
2 7A6 7
2 681 7
2,755 9
2 771 5
2 730.3
2 803 5
2 803 3
2,845 1
2,923 8
2,962 o
2,871.5
3,019 4
3,021 0
3,018 8
3,022 6
3 068 9
3 178 Q
3 249 6
3,198.1 •
(w]p3)263.9
1
0
8
7
0
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
387
37/
3^0
276
200
486
123 3
123 /
1p/ /
20 719
20 666
20 426
1 2S 1
1 2*5 7
127 1
20 716
on *;«;#
21 01Q
1 9A *>
1 97 Q
T»O~J yns
r<ijL,4Uo
-i ofl
"3
487 7
491 2
492 8
12Q *i
/QA "1
1 31 S
130 3
1 30 Q
499
501
502
506
512
5
7
8
6
0
132
133
132
135
1 37
6
8
6
1
3
515
515
517
520
525
528
530
532
545
541
546
550
4
2
8
5
0
5
4
1
4
3
1
9
137
138
139
138
139
140
3
4
7
8
6
4
1*552.3
Hilp556.3
TQ 6*58
19 671
19 844
19,837
20 112
20 253
1A1 /
142 1
142 2
1A3 6
l/*i A
1/A Q
r!47 9
[H]pl49 4
r>9T
n97
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59=100)
100 9
100 8
100 9
100 9
100 8
100 7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5
5
5
4
5
8
9
9
8
9
inn Q
101 1
im i
imP
T*9P 7AA
Tm o
101 2
101 1
101 0
101 2
101 2
101 3
101 5
101 6
101 7
-ppp
101 7
r21 , 30 5
T*91
/JO
y.pi 7m
—Q-]
00*7
_on oo^
SAo
r*il,
_pp oor?
yOp jjjjj
TOO
r-c^,
_pn / no
IVl
, 4^V
T*9i AQO
q-aA
v23 9A9
v,pp oc^i
T-P9
£/Q
r<<i,o4y
T>93 31 7
r93 3PP
r-93 AAft
T*9"3
^&c;
IV
,3, 555
r93 7^3
T*9/ 1 Q/
r»9 / A y "7
T*O
/ StT
^i
r^4»
olb
0r9^ m A
ri9/ Am
101 9
102 1
102 2
102.3
102 6
102 6
102 8
102 9
102 8
103 2
103 1
103 L
03pl03 8
1
103 8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Week ended March 15.
TABLE
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(1957-59=100)
68. Index of labor 64. Book value of
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59=100)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt
(Mil. dol.)
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Percent)
1962
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March .'
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
38.35
37.95
36.95
38.05
40 . 00
4,1.20
42.55
A3. 50
45.65
47.75
100.7
100.9
100.4
100.6
100.3
100.7
100 6
100 2
99.7
99 5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
99 3
99 i
'99 7
99.3
99 3
100.0
99 7
99.5
100 3
(E]101.2
99 5
98 9
70. <7/
56.9
103.3
103.3
104 0
104.2
103.9
104,7
104. 2
104 6
105 1
106 3
QCJ
49 00
yy.iH
QQ
105 1
QCJ
rj
TO* f
50 35
QQ .4
J
yy
QQ "2
yy.;>
i nA, 1
5? 75
"I
no n
yo.V
QQ ^
106 2
***
Q# A
055 35
Qg
~-an
£,
0
QO Q
70*7
ra57 20
— QQ C
P77. J
45 , 200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59 1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51 , 069
51 410
51,941
52,324
52 784
60 0
60 1
60 3
60.5
60 5
60 4
'"' 5
t>u 8
61 0
61 8
21 2
21 4
21 4
21.6
21 6
21 5
21 6
21 6
21 6
9
18
56 508
57 021
57 431
62 4
6? Q
PI Q
22 2
57 73?
efl pop
63 ?
op /
op /
58 Q6?
CQ An3
4
7
n
i
63
63
A/
A/
(V 6
QQ
77. n
U
QC>
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
[Elpl06 4
AC
/
65
66
66
67
r68
8
3
6
2
0
ftHlnAA y
(NAl
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20 6
20.6
21.0
21.2
??
op
op
pp
pp
PP
PP
5
q
y
"3
z
5
A
PP 7
54 315
54,727
55 220
55 590
5.01
5 01
5 00
4 99
4 99
An p/n
L Q8
5 00
/ Q7
An QS/
OU,Vo4
An
Ao
Ap
AQ
Ay
Ay
A^y
pcA
Qpp
COT
pn i
&n3
A5 /An
AA TfW
inj p^o. ^Q
AA
OD, "7PQ
/ £i
?
MA
A ^J
\W
(NA)
5.00
^6 073
pp q
/TlT A \
5.02
53 PI ?
53 791
po i
fHl •rvO'3
4.99
...
1
QQ
...
e nn
f»7l 3
^ .O'?
(MJ
</
ra58 90
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appe'.r to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 03 for -series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by ®. Series numbers are for Identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"r not available.
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
113.5
108.1
113 4
113 7
118 6
114 9
110.4
107.7
108,4
107.1
110.1
108 4
-3.1
-0.4
-5 0
-6.6
-8.5
-6 5
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
112.4
109.6
116.6
113.5
116.3
115 3
120.5
121.9
119.9
122.0
119.3
117.2
108.6
109.9
110.5
108.0
114.0
112 7
112.9
116.5
112.6
114.7
114.9
118.1
-3 8
+0 3
-6 1
-5.5
2 3
-2 6
7 6
-5 4
-7 3
-7 3
-4 4
+0.9
125.9
119 2
120 4
122.6
119.1
116.7
122.8
121.6
117.9
118.4
112.9
126.5
115.9
120 5
117 1
121.4
108.7
113.8
114.0
111.7
113.0
115.1
114.9
114.5
121.7
121.8
117.4
125.1
128.7
133.3
120.2
129.5
137.7
124.2
146.1
126.4
113.8
120.2
124.6
153.4
119 9
119 6
122 1
121 9
121 4
115 0
128 7
122 5
1
1,657
-2.6
-3.2
-2 5
+1 8
+0.6
+1 2
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
(Mil. dol.).
1,395
1,040
1,675
1,787
1,205
4,517
4,385
3 892
4,535
4,920
4,140
2,017
2,149
2 111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079
1,075
1 843
4,351
2,149
2 689
1964
January
Marrh
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
nl/7
/
pi 43 1
March
-10 0
+1 3
1 3
-2 6
-1.2
-10.4
-2.9
-8.8
-9.9
-4.9
-3.3
+2.0
-7.6
-3.6
-1.1
-12.0
-7.9
-1.6
+7.2
f3.6
+28.3
-8.8
+3.8
-13 7
+1 9
-7 6
-2.9
16 3
9 ?
-1 7 /
-3 9
_-) OK .o£
plO
•ri OO O
_-| O-l ' 17
pl,5l . /
_
-i -j y
p-11.4
p-1.8
1 ??7
5 317
/ 1 3*3
1 ^QA
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1,005
700
1,355
1,444
1,402
1 254
1 128
1,741
1,732
1 733
1 212
1,882
4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
4 520
4 258
5,223
5,276
L 96?
4 896
5*669
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,915
~i ^01
no
5 , 11UU
o 7T 2
(wt\
UVAJ
f\rh}
\N«J
(NA.1
April
May
, *
June
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves*
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
98. Change in
money,supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
110. Total private
borrowing
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1962
JU|y
August
September
October. .,
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August .
September
October
November ........
December
1964
January.
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
2 07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
2 89
2 09
2 L2
1,97
2.^0
1.90
2.40
2 36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
2 37
2
2
3
?
9
2
44
4.6
2L
/A
S#
62
9 #1
q ic
3 98
? 67
r2 53
T*3
/Q
rj.47
n? 8T
+91
+94
+33
+209
+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
-4-103
-0 84
-0.84
-1.68
+4.92
+4.08
+4.92
+4 08
+4.92
+1 56
+4 08
+3 24
+3 96
+6.36
+2 40
+2 40
+5 52
+7 08
-0 84
+3 96
+1.56
+2.40
+3 12
0.00
+7 80
+8 52
+3 84
+8 40
+4 56
+2 28
+4
56
i o 9JJ
+5 04
+4 08
+4.56
+9.48
+8 40
+10 80
-1 C C
, Q / rt
-| / Q
+V , 40
&o
-i -I
-11
, n rjf)
+u.
//^
-14V
r-44
_ T nc
p-105
j_T O "3A
+1*£OD
r+7 . 20
n
-| X
p-2.1o
43 820
/.5 620
53 892
A 5 ??/
Z7 ?1 ?
48 656
64 640
.. •
49 308
eo AA/
50 1 QA
j_/
cj£,
+8
+5
+4
+5
+4
16
88
44
76
92
+Q 7?
+8 52
+8 04
+8 88
O--I
/A
/ 1
,rj
QO
+D,yb
,£•
Q/l
i Q
/^rt
0.00
+12.60
+9.72
+10 . 80
+12.24
+12,96
+7,80
+12.36
r+7. 68
P+1.92
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
+1/3
+8 76
+Q 1 ?
+Q / f t
,-\ *2 y y
+1,5.44
-155
51,508
61 0/0
1 fl^
-Io5
~± (0
42 668
££
+7.UU
~\ QA
-IJO
43 104
-4-ft
-t-A fin
1£
8 .lo
, 5.
c lo
T /;
+
,1 / /
+1.44
_i_i
T .
r?Aft>
+11
43 236
+6 4,8
+8 76
-t-Ti ny
1 -i o
-j rjr
43 756
76
76
20
68
24
08
00
+ ^.V<c
7A
41 732
+8
+8
+7
+7
+6
+7
+9
9 9A
i y c£.
+ 3?
45 340
...
...
+1
+1
+2
+2
+1
+1
+2
+2
+4
+5
+5
42
85
40
35
74
97
04
08
66
22
78
+1 7Q
+3 48
+1.42
+3 17
+4 25
+3 89
+A 31
+4 78
+4 28
+1/3
cc> y An
/Q ,/4J.*:
1 9
4?
4-O 39
+8 6?
1
A
^ ^^A
UjfJ/O
cc
n nn
55,1UU
.. ,
68,972
54,732
...
60,020
55,580
p72,972
p 56, 244
+12.35
+13.14
+12.46
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10.00
+5.53
+4.00
+5*33
+0.32
+10,84
r+14.23
p+7.21
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and cio not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
32
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1962
113. Net change in
consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
July
114. Treasury bill
rate*
115. Treasury bond
yields*
August
September
October
November
December
+4 49
+4.66
+3 00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82
2 84
2 79
2 75
2 80
2.86
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+5.82
+5.94
+ 5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+ 5.83
+6.11.
+ 5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+ 5.52
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
+ 5 14
+6 95
+6 29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+ 5.80
3 53
3 53
2 Q/
91
92
90
91
92
00
14
32
38
45
52
52
4 02
3 98
3 Q/
3 89
3 87
3 87
3 89
3 92
3 93
3 Q7
3
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
97
00
01
99
04
07
11
14
i 11
A 19
4 28
/ 97
86. Exports excluding, military aid
shipments, total
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
3 9ft
3 93
311
3 DP
3 O/
A 23
4 28
3 07
c
(Mil. dol,)
crt
P. 90
5 57
^
^A
2. po
5 55
5 5/
5 53
/ pp
3 in
5 5P
4
4
/
/,
/
25
26
35
35
39
315
3 05
5 /ft
/
7/
A 33
/ /n
3 in
311
3 PI
3 ??
313
3 ?n
A 36
/ ;p
3 90
/, /Q
3 97
3 3n
5 /7
1A
5
5
5
P ./43
5 .y4P
e;
5 / 5
5 / 5
5 /5
5 / 5
5 /5
5 / 5
/ Q rt
.o
1,1-7?4V
i 7m
i
, /u^ ./4
cn n Tj
I,yiu.
y y 17
I,c544*
/
17O£t 7
i Q/ Q q
l , 04,? . j
q
QQ7
P
1 PP 1
1 QAQ 1
C C
1j Q1
7^? . P
i AQA ft
1 7Q1 1
1^/1 i
1
1
1
1
3
5
P
A
Qn5
QA5
Q5/
Q55
9 i n5 /
1964
January
February
March
April
May
,*
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72
3.48
3.48
3.48
3 48
3 51
3.53
3*58
3.62
3 86
/ i5
/ 11
i i ft
4 20
4 16
4 13
4 13
4 14
4.16
4 16
4 12
4 14
+8.04
+7.69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
+7.22
+7.99
+7.31
+8.20
+7.07
+7.88
+7.76
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.14
4 16
4 15
4.15
4.14
4.14
4 15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4 34
4.43
+7.46
4.60.
4.67
4.43
4 61
Q
CC
/ /Q
1 3ft
99
I>. 4?
1C
Q ,u^y
n^Q .0
A
<c
T 1
3 .14
J C
5 • 4->
piCf7 rt
2 ,U;>
/. o
2,075 .2
3
C
4.4!?
A A9
300
5*c
3 9ft
4 48
3 20
A
/,
A
A
A
3 90
3 18
3 1Q
3 25
3 18
313
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3 06
5 45
1 214 6
3 09
318
3 15
3 17
3 2A
3 27
/ 5
/ 5
A5
/5
//
//
/5
/A
/Q
1 5Qft ft
2 7c/ o
c-i
/
1C
A9
/3
A3
A9
AQ
4 47
4 47
.-co
3 23
.45
/5
/5
/ 5
/A
/A
/A
/ 5
/ 5
/ 5
p nAi n
p
n/7
q
P
n7A
5
9
1 1 ft A
p OQQ ft
p pAi n
2
1 5A /
9 9nA p
/ 9A 11
2 ,4^0.
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
CNA)
4 44
4 44
4 49
4 48
4 52
4 57
4 57
4.66
4 69
3 An
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
A 75
3 /A
5
4 90
3 54
5 62
9
P
9
9
2
4.92
5.07
3 52
3 64
5 7O
2 248 6
A 71
3 24
3 35
(NA)
p
"270
4,
p pin p
2 P3n p
c
2
pec
33P Q
3P/ 1
3/ 1 A
/Oft 9
355 ft
(WA}
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Series numbers
are for identification only and do noi reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; 4< p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
33
TABLE
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General imports, total
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
89. Excess of receipts (+) OP pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of construction conments (-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices
tracts, value
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis1
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bit. dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing 2
(Bil. dol.)
1962
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,314.6
1,424.9
1,376.5
+403.2
+357.5
+438.9
+230.1
+303.8
+466.8
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8
-112.6
+611.7
+484.4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499.7
+490.6
+627.6
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514*0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9'
1,789,0
1,829.5
1,663,1
1,763,6
1,806,8
2,005.9
1,903,3
2,034.6
+21.9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+592.4
+569.3
+517.3
+335.7
+504-9
+321.2
1,935.5
+313.1
-433
(NA)
-711
(NAJ
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
117
118
113
117
123
138
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.13
44.09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
•47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
r62.53
149
(NA)
r63.77
p64.68
8^26
8.81
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-1,199
(NA)
-1,108
(NA)
-210
(NA)
-153
(NA)
-257
-136
-582
-593
-1,366
-351
+46
-783
8.88
9^38
10.05
11.02
12! 08
13^23
14.54
14^97
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-647
+267
-531
p-388
-581
+230
+218
p-1,249
15*66
17^06
rlB.'l?
p!9.'40
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
CNA)
CNA)
111.0
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
This balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
2
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products," (See NICB publication Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
""
~~
——
_™_
34
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
47. United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
Year and month
(1957-59=
100)
1962
119
119
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
120
119
120
119
May
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
.
February
March
April
May
: J
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
{1957-59=
100)
118
119
119
119
120
120
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
128
128
129
131
132
132
133
134
134
132
135
138
133
134
1 33
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
139
139
141
141
142
143
144
144
144
145
146
142
141
143
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
151
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
130
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
151
17Q
149
150
153
158
160
180
181
113
114
115
110
113
110
125
126
127
127
128
127
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
135
136
136
129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
136
1 38
173
91 /
1 3Q
170
217
139
142
1 //
1/c
140
1 3Q
1 on
172
1 3Q
140
169
?1Q
op/
1 73
pp/
4<i4
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
141
140
141
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
146
146
143
145
146
146
156
155
149
154
155
154
151
151
120
121
121
123
1 ?3
1 ?3
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
130
r!29
128
r!29
129
r!49
p!53
r!28
r!28
r!29
r!28
i*129
r!29
p!31
1 ^10
(NA)
(NA}
pi 51
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
r!45
rl46
131
132
132
133
132
125
125
126
128
128
126
127
125
116
129
133
1 3/
129
~I?Q
136
137
132
132
141
142
142
138
rl 37
r!39
13Q
r!40
•rO ^Q
T! / o
rl II
r~\ 1 /
1 t:c.
T~\ / 1
r!49
1 z>&
-1 / f.
148
rl *>}
146
pi 48
r-| c;q
1 /&
(NA)
nl Z.'J
148
(WA^
p!44
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
166
169
166
169
174
176
178
175
179
179
178
179
184
184
191
190
?03
pnp
207
211
226
228
?33
232
?3?
239
241
237
?/?
r!83
pi 80
243
237
242
240
234
243
241
238
243
240
243
p243
(MA)
(NA)
rl?8
178
fMA \
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
D/STfMBUT/ON OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1966
OCCF
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Current expansion
Nov.
1965
Dec.
1965
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
Feb.
1966
Jan.
1966
July
1953
May
I960
July
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
*
10
10
2
1
9
1
15
5
7
I
4
5
3
10
1
1
5
10
24
21
24
42
24
42
1
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
*i
'*3
24
24
0
"2
3
4
16
25
16
2
1
2
3
5
1
2
"4
2
24
i
X
20
0
2
21
5
0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months fc
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
„
,
1
2
„.
*i
1
3
4
•»
„
11
'l
10
2
9
2
9
11
100
11
91
11
82
11
82
Benchmark month
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Apr.
1953
3
'*2
3
**3
"i
3
4
"2
3
11
27
11
11
27
36
6th month before business cycle peak
Feb.
1960
Apr.
1957
"i
* 3
1
11
0
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
1
2
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
3 months
2 months
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
4
13
2
... .
4
**2
21
i
2
2
1
X
20
5
2
21
5
"i
2
1
2
3
5
1
2
1
"4
13
2
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
9
1
"5
2
'*3
24
0
24
0
X
20
15
2
21
33
18
"i
2
"i
2
24
0
6
7
3
2
2
1
2
1
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
„
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
"i
'l
"y
"i
"3
1
1
2
"i
"i
"i
1
4
2
1
2
6
"5
4
3
2
"4
5
3
5
3
6
**4
4
3
11
55
11
36
11
18
11
45
11
45
11
55
11
36
27
"i
11
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
H series were not available.
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
38
btd
MARCH T966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
CHART
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
Dl9. Stock prices/ 5(0 common stoc
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1966
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments(6-mb. span'1—
1-mo. span —)
D47. Industrial prpduction-24 indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. spa^i
D58. Wholesale pr ces, mfrd. qoods-23
D54. Sales! of retail stores -24
(9-mjp. span!
1-mo. spaii
bed
MARCH
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1966
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
all mfrs.'800 cos.
, dur. goods rmrs.-400 cos.
rloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
D48. Change in total carloadincs
if-ctars-4-Q iparr)™
and equipment expend
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
035, D36 (Jan. 1966)
048 (Dec. 1965)
061 (Feb. 1966)
4tnQ1964 - ; 4lhQl%5
2nd Q1965
2nd Q1966
1st Q 1964 - 1st Q 1965
1st Q 1965 - 1st Q 1966
3rd Q1965-
1st Q1966- -2nd Q1966
4th 01965
CHART
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1
Year and month
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1962
August
September
October
November
December
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
97.6
85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
57.1
61.9
59.5
19.0
78.6
23.8
52.4
50.0
38.1
71.4
81.0
r59.5
76.2
81.0
59.5
59.5
33.3
54.8
71.^
r69.0
r78.6
P95.2
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58,3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
r76.4
July
1965
January. ....... .
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
r47.6
P71.4
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1 '
66.7
68.1
91.7
r83.3
77.8
p80.6
76
53
*59
*74
47
53
59
53
53
'65
'65
*76
53
76
*56
71
*53
U
*32
*59
76
65
71
r76
53
p76
P53
r36.1
P41.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.)
42
bed
MARCH
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1966
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
; ay
June
JU|y
48
*56
50
*59
'56
August
September
October
November
December. ........
1964
January
February •
March
Apri 1
May
June
July ..
August
September
October
November
December
55
57
*60
57
*56
019. Index of stock prices, 500 common 023. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
stocks (80 industries) *•
1-month span
9-month span
9-month span
1-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
.95.0
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95-0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89-4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
•44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76,6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1 '
57.1
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
A6.2
46.2
3
46.2
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
55
*59
55
*60
.
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
74.0
48.7
61.5
73.1
3
46.2
38.3
44.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and 034 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for March 15, 16, and 17.
on 79
43
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
041. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
1-month span
9-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
August
September
October
November ........
December
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1
1963
January
February. ........
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66,7
53,3
80,0
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83,3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
75.0
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75-0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
62.5
' 75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
65.2
60.9
73.9
65.2
78.3
39.1
71.7
34.8
73.9
60.9
60.9
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
82.6
78.3
78.3
73.9
71.7
54.3
78.3
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
75.0
75.0
81.7
60.0
60.0
80.0
85.0
56.7
63.3
85.0
91.7
r8l.7
83.3
76.7
80.0
78.3
76.7
76.7
85.0
91.7
91.7
86.7
r95.0
66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
52.1
75.0
83.3
r91.7
83.3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
83.3
P87.5
63.0
69.6
39.1
56.5
91.3
43.5
76.1
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
P30.4
80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
P91.3
(NA)
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60.9
71.7
r73.9
P87.0
1962
July
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
rSO.O
p71.7
r64.6
P70.8
CNA)
r63.0
p80.4
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month,n and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1(
The diffusion index is based on 24 components through January 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
44
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 7966
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
;
72
'74
71
'70
42.1
68.4
-67
74
'82
'76
"76
63.2
63. "'2
+29
'76
"so
77
'76
73.7
78.9
+39
74
'so
'?6
'76
57.*9
6S.'i
+44
*82
'si
*82
80
78^9
7S.*9
+21
*84
*85
*82
"si
68.'i
73.7
-39
"S3
*87
'si
'si
84.2
68.*4
+11
*82
'86
'si
"si
73.7
94^7
+41
"83
"87
"si
"si
52.6
89.' 5
i^37
'si
*88
'si
*85
(NA)
89^5
+49
"96
*88
*90
"si
84." 2
+23
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
65.6
65.6
46.*9
6s!s
40.6
50.0
65^6
75.0
75.0
71.'9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62.' 5
50.'6
84.4
75.0
96. *9
68." 8
56.2
65.6
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February .........
March
Apri 1
May
June
• ...
*88
'ss
75.0
*84
84.2
+22
90
87
73.'?
r+7
*91
*90
*88
'
68^8-
8?! 5
65^6
81.2
si.'i
r62.5
71.9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans; 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
/MARCH 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Oct.
Nov.
Decr
Jan.
FebP
Average weekly hours
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories . „
Lumber and wood products ,
Furniture and fixtures . .
.
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
41.2
41.3
41.0
41.1
41.2
41.4
41.4
r41.5
41.6
-41.0
4-0.7
41-5
41.0
41.8
41.9
42.3
42.6
41.2
40.9
41.4
41.3
43.7
41.7
41.7
41.0
41.6
41.9
42.1
42.1
42.3
41.1
41.5
41.8
41.4
42.3
42.2
41.3
41.7
42.2
41.1
42.4
42.4
41.8
41.8
43.0
41.2
42.3
r42.4
r41.4
r41.7
42.7
42.8
41.4
41.7
42.6
42.3
42.2
41.2
40.3
41.9
42.1
42.3
42.3
r41.9
r42.6
42.0
42.7
43.1
41.0
43.4
41.2
39.9
43.1
41.1
43.3
41-3
39.8
43.2
41.2
43.5
41.4
39.8
42.3
40.5
42.7
40.5
39.5
43.5
41.0
43.0
41.7
40.0
43.7
41.3
43.4
41.7
40.2
43.9
41.5
42.9
41.7
40.2
44.0
41.1
43,0
41.6
39.8
r41.4
r43.6
r42.2
r40.0
44.0
41.7
43.5
42.4
40.3
41.4
38.5
42.0
36.5
43.1
41.2
38.9
41.9
36.6
43.1
41.1
38.3
41.9
36.6
43.1
41.0
36.7
41.5
36.0
42.7
41.0
37.3
41.5
36.4
43.1
41.0
37.7
41.8
41.1
38.0
41.9
36.5
43.6
41.2
37.7
42.0
38.6
41.8
41.5
42.2
37.7
38.6
41.9
41.9
42.2
38.2
38.6
41.9
42.1
42.2
38.2
38.5
42.2
42.4
41.1
38.3
38.5
42.0
42.2
41.7
38.4
38.4
41.9
42.5
42.3
38.6
38.6
42.0
38.7
42.0
42.0
41.6
-42.1
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
41.2
,. .
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
43.0
36.4
43.4
42.4
42.5
38.6
36.5
43.6
42.3
38.4
r41.1
39.4
r42.5
r36.2
41.4
41.0
42.4
43.3
36.7
43.3
r38.5
r42.0
r42.1
r42.4
r38.2
38.6
42.2
43.2
42.2
38.9
Millions of dollars
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
21,271
21-, 130
21,714
22,043
20,992
22,425
22,389
23,403
r23,774
23,463
3,739
2,232
3,702
2,291
3,593
2,018
3,456
1,876
3,286
1,632
. 3,148
1,451
3,392
1,635
3,684
1,854
r3,60.3
pi, 777
2,134
2,068
2,110
2,065
2,098
2,027
2,050
2,213
2,335
p2,179
(NA)
Machinery, except electrical
3,092
Steam engines and turbines*
J209
Internal combustion engines r*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
525
Metalworking machinery * tt
234
Miscellaneous equipment *
3,050
3,100
3,107
3,108
3,349
3,396
3,532
p3,424
(NA)
185
166
156
142
157
232
316
575
267
598
213
581
222
601
208
675
279
660
277
570
264
p6lj
p236
(NA)
(NA)
234
245
285
258
259
258
278
P273
(NA)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills .
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums .
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*. .
Service indlistry machinery *
237
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
preliminary, r = revised.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
,
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
(NA)
(NA)
NA^Not available,
bed
MARCH
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Jr
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products ....
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products ....
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and related products.
Rubber and plastic products...
Leather and leather products ..
•
79 24 52 50 38 71 81 60 4-8 71
+
-
O
O
-
O+
0
0
+
o
-
o
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
0
+
0
+. +
0
0
+
+
+
+
0
o
+
- + . +
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
OO
+
+
+
-
-
+
76
81
60
60
33
55 71
O
-
+
0
~
O
78
75
78
68
67
68
92
+
+
+
+
+
69
79
95
0
+
83
78
81
+
+
+
+
+
+
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
Alt durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products:
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products.
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling •
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *..
General industrial machinery*.
Office and store machines*...
Service industry machinery *..
U 58 60 k2 61 61 56 76 36
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+ = rising; o - unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
4 - 4 - 4 -
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr,
May
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2 - Continued
^ 2,891
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
/ 61*9
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*. . .
transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
2,597
2,711
2,929
2,801
2,983
586
60)4
602
603
653
731
523
529
701
659
577
5,51*6
5,690
6,301
6,1*53
5,878
6,920
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
.
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
3,201 r3,211 P3,l*90
(NA)
r655
r736
P682
(NA)
r699
r579
P855
(NA)
r5,972 r6,l65 r6,657
p6,38i*
Index: 1957-59 = 100
110.6
110.7
113.2
116.7
116.9
115-0
115.5
117.1
120.5
122.8
123.9
.1*97
.071
.506
.070
33-188
1.71*8
.522
-073
.586
.076
29.872
1.871*
.1*75
.073
31*. 801*
1.730
1.791
37.719
1.81*7
.151
.11*7
• 303
.206
.150
.158
.301
.210
1.61*2
1.71*7
.158
.162
.11*8
.163
.298
.208
1-725
.180
11.629
11.1*88
.11*9
.156
.299
.210
1.702
.167
.660
.077
36.51*8
1.819
.150
.173
.292
.205
1.765
.272
.079
.238
.071*
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib,)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Woo! tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow {Ib )
.D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
All retail sales
,
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.382
.352
.331*
.1*11*
.1*13
.071*
.071*
.075
.073
.073
36.165 36.060 37.328 36.929 38.600
1.611* 1.561* 1.661 1.819 1.910
.11*9
.126
.307
.196
1.623
.138
.150
.130
.306
.191;
1.612
.138
.150
.133
.305
.200
1-598
.11*9
.152
.11*3
-301*
.201*
1.651
.156
12.080 11.779 11.803 11.652
.266
.080
.26k
.083
.268
.081
.262
.080
J-22,936
.21*7
.071*
.206
.232
11.663 11.535
.252
.080
.259
.077
.233
11.1*20
-257
.072
r23,262 r22,856 r 22, 81*9 r23,317 r2i*,19l* r 21*, 61*7 r2l*,8l6 r 25, 016 P2l*,603
1*,81*9
l*,87i*
1*,925
l*,98l
5,031
5,298
r5,232 p5,U52
(NA)
(NA)
1,711*
1,86?
200
1,729
1,907
202
1*35
1,727
1,867
211
1*31
1,71*3
1,81*7
1,769
205
1*20
215
1*50
1,827
1,966
220
rl,8l2 pi, 855
r2,082 P2,013
235
p209
rl*69
pl*37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
271
26V
265
271
P269
(NA;
(NA)
1*25
269
1,911*
1*59
276
r280
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
^•Average for March 15, 16, and 17.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
48
.231*
.072
1.721*
.150
.161
.291*
.207
1.726
-11*9
.159
.297
.207
Millions of dollars
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA^=Not available, p=preliminary, r = revised.
2
Data
3
11.512 11.558
35.262
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
i-i
1 |
=.
I
|
|
ro1 5 ~ r r = 3
|s - . |
^ ^|
-f
< C S ^ - , < : C O O Z : Q - ^ U _
D6, VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * . . . .
Electrical industrial apparatus*
_
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
1966
oi"o
O a j
*
|
9. 1
z Q
S
^
<u
4-
ro
s.
f d s ii .§ £• i5- a i
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
--O
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
1|6
1^6
1|6
+
+
Mrtfnr uphlrlo nartc
Mfltnr v/phirlp aCQpmhlw nnpmtinnc
Pnmnlptp airrraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
+
-
+
+
+
--
+
1 nmhpr tntfll
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES 2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib )
51; 58
U6
k2
50
15
35
62
62
73
k6
69
77
62
69
5U
5U 1|6
-
0
-
+
+
+
+
+ +
i;6
>
Tin flh }
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Print cloth (yd ) average
+
+
+
91
+
kk
0
76
+
+
+
+
Department stores
+
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) . . +
Variety stores
+
Other general merchandise stores
+
Men's and boys' wear stores
+
+
+
o
-
0
0
-
0
U8
-
Ik
+
7k
+
78
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
UUrtnl frtnc f\h \
+
+
.
UiHckc Hh ^
Rncin /inn th 1
Pnhhar Hh ^
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
Percent rising
Grocery stores
Other food stores ....
F?ifrin0 r\t\(\ rlrinkino nl/irp^
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
30 NA .NA
+ N A N A
NANA
+ N A N A
+ NA NA
- N A N A
- N A N A
- N A N A
- N A N A
- N A N A
80 87 87 7k 87 8? 96 91 NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ NANA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NANA
+ NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+0
+ + -0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-f = rising; o,= unchanged;- = falling. Directions of. change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
•Average for March 15, 16, and 17.
Directions of change are computed "before figures are rounded.
NANA
NANA
NANA
NANA
NANA
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MARCH 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data-—Continued
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Jan.
Mar. .
Feb.
Apr.
May
Oct.
Novf
Dec'
Jan,
Feb.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture 'home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
511*
218
709
323
788
231
1*,1*87
21*3
1,757
71*0
507
.
510
1*96
1*85
502
215
681
335
755
225
207
687
339
730
216
203
675
307
72l*
218
220
682
332
776
228
1*,626
1*,363
21*5
1,771
753
509
1*,218
1*,295
260
1,811
755
530
21*9
1,781*
71*1*
521
251*
1,792
762
516
535
566
565
(NA)
(NA)
220
227
756
366
819
255
211
732
369
828
250
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1*,509
267
1,860
818
51*3
l*,71i*
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
71*9
380
775
21*6
l*,3l*5
269
1,81*3
816
531
21*2
1,81*0
831
538
> :::
1965
1965
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
1966
Nov.
Decf
Jan[
Febf
62,11*6
62,1*01*
Thousands of employees
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
0
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products ...„
Primary metal industries
„
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
59,81*6
.
98
532
356
1*98
1,050
966
1,176
1,119
1,218
21*1
33U
1,136
Ik
818
1,197
h9h
615
538
110
358
310
629
3,11*5
1*,013
3,2la
9,253
60,032
99
529
356
1*91
1,050
968
1,181
1,127
1,22?
239
332
60,290
60,501
60,621
61,001
61,1*72
61,881*
100
527
356
1*90
1,068
973
1,192
102
528
357
1*95
1,077
983
1,208
1,11*9
1,238
250
33U
101*
107
530
358
5oo
1,01*6
108
538
362
503
1,031
1,006
1,21*2
1,199
1,282
107
1,11*1
71*
817
1,198
1*93
615
538
108
357
312
1,131*
627
3,188
1*,020
3,252
9,280
NOTE; Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
1
50
1,11*2
1,237
21*5
332
75
818
1,221
1*91*
616
51*2
110
359
309
626
3,195
l*,03l*
3,272
9,308
530
351*
1*95
1,079
977
1,208
1,152
1,280
21*8
3l*2
.987
1,221*
1,182
1,263
252
3U9
251*
353
51*7
368
512
1,035
1,012
1,21*1*
1,225
1,290
256
359
1,11*1
75
822
1,196
500
622
51*8
111
361
308
1,135
68
823
1,195
51*7
51*8
110
363
310
110
365
311
110
372
110
378
311*
311*
633
3,151*
1*,05L
3,281
9,338
627
3,189
l*,0l*9
3,273
9,327
622
3,202
1*,071
3,288
9,396
627
3,267
1*,079
3,300
9,1*51*
1*97
622
51*8
1,11*1*
70
828
1,212
500
625
51*1*
1,171*
69
831*
1,216
503
630
= Not available, preliminary, r=revised.
1,156
72
837
1,225
507
629
630
3,386
1*,079
3,309
9,513
111*
557
371
520
1,01*6
1,021*
1,252
1,21*5
1,296
261
3U7
1,158
71
839
1,203
511
639
551
110
381
316
632
3,379
i*,097
3,317
9,589
118
552
373
5U*
1,01*6
1,031*
1,259
1,267
1,321*
261*
351
1,163
71
838
1,237
512
638
552
110
377
317
633
3,3i*9
l*,09l*
3,331
9,626
bed
MARCH
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
If966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel accessory stores ....
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
ra
=
3"'
g>
»
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
--
+
+
_
+
0
_-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
-
++
+
+
+
+
+
- - +
+
+
+
+
+ --
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+
- H
4-'
+
-
NA NA
NANA
NANA
NANA
NA NA
\-
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
NA
o
-
+
+
- N A N A
^
+
-
-
' o' o
«
i
«
e
-^
+
-0
+
+
+
- - +
+
+
+
0
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+ NANA
+
+ NANA
+
+ N A N A
f + N A N A
+
+ NANA
+
+ NANA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-«+
0
H+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- N A N A
+ NA NA
+ NANA
+ NANA
NA -
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
NANA
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
NANA
+
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products . . . „
Machinery
...
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing •
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Mining
Contract construction . . . .
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
....
...
Reta i 1 trade
+ = rising; o = unchanged;
£
60
80
85
<E
co
O
Z
Q
63
85
92
82
80
72
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
O
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+•
+
+
O
+
+
+
-
+
0
+
O - O
+
-
+
O
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+•-
+
+
+
-
57
1965
1966
r o
—i
0
l
^
- ? - ^ « g « ? o z 9 - ?
—»
-2?
o
Q . T O § " 3 : 3 ' S " " O O < D
S
c - -
o
*?
^-
NA NA
6-month spans
1965
s
o
*?.
1-month spans
<C
* C L ^ - >
-=?
- NANA
- NANA
- NANA
- NANA
N A N A
+ NANA
- N A N A
NANA
+
C
^
f-
1966
—>
1966
f i s If If ill
77
+
80
+
78
+
77
+
77
+
85
+
92
+
92
+
87
+
95
+
—
O
+
O
"i*
O
+
O
—
O
. .
. .
*»
-
+
0O--
I - -
+
+
- 0
-
O
O
O
O
+
+
+
+
-
(-
+
+ _ +
+
- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MARCH 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.r
Feb.P
3,071*
9,081
2,1*00
7,869
r3,082
r9,128
r2,395
r7,933
3,080
9,132
2,1*25
7,970
3,089
9,178
2,1*35
8,017
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
3,021*
8,811*
2,31*1*
7,580
3,032
8,81*3
2,31*5
7,610
3,01*1
8,857
2,355
7,659
3,01*9
8,929
2,376
7,678
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
3,053
8,91*6
2,379
7,706
3,069
9,019
2,386
7,785
Index: 1957-59=100
11*0.9
11*1.6
11*2.7
110;. 2
li*l*.5
11*5.1
11*6.1*
rll*8.7
150.1
151.3
ii*i*U
ilio"2
11*6.0
11*3*6
11*6.1;
11*8! 7
11*8.0
11*6 ! 5
11*7.5
123*7
150.9
rl!9.U
153.6
r!26*5
156.2
129*8
157.3
131
160
155.2
155.8
11*1*.6
U*5.5
157*6
156.8
11*7.3
11*7.0
159!)*
158.1*
11*9.5
11*9.8
161.7
159.2
11*9.8
152.1
162*1*
160.1
151.5
152.6
165*8
166.2
155.0
158.0
rl66.*9
168.1*
rl57.3
159.0
rl69.2
r!72.8
rl60.8
162.2
171*9
178.1
163.2
165.7
129! 9
111;. 2
13o! 3
117.1
131.6
112.8
132*6
115.1*
133*5
117.2
13U*U
118.3
r!35*5
119.1
rl37*.6
r!25.1*
139*7
P125.7
173
181
163
169
136
11*2
(NA)
155*6
11*3-2
15^5
11*3.6
156*8
11*3.5
155*8
11*3.5
156*3
11*6.6
159'. 7
150.1*
162*6
153.0
rl61*'3
r!55.5
165*7
152.0
167
155
132*2
11*1*. 3
105-0
131.6
11*5.3
110.9
132.2
H*5.1*
105.1
133*8
11*3.8
107.7
I3l**8
Ha. 9
107.0
137.* 7
H*5.7
109.3
rl39*l*
rll*7.2
110.1
rll*0.6
Pll*8.5
P113-9
137.3
pll*0.3
(NA)
(NA)
11*0.0
128.3
11*0*9
129-3
139*1*
130.0
11*2.1
131.3
il*i'i
133.0
11*3*6
131.1
11*7 lU
133.2
rll*7*7
r!3l*.2
169 .'2
121.5
167.7
169! 3
122.9
168.2
169*9
121.8
169.1
17218
12l*.5
170.2
17it*2
125.8
168.1
177*1
121*. 0
175.5
rl78*.5
126.1
rl8l.6
rl80.*6
r!27.8
P181.3
122*5
120.9
12l! 9
116.5
122.3
121.8
123.1
119.9
122 Ih
120.7
123*6
11U.5
125*6
rll8.9
r!25*3
PU7.1
H*0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
11*1
(NA)
138
171*
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
126
(NA)
(NA)
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
107.9
112.0
113.0
111.9
117-1
112.5
117.1
113.0
115-2
111*. 2
116.8
lll*.0
115.7
rll3.8
118.5
rlll*.0
lll*.l*
Stone and earth minerals
125*8
118.2
121.6
123.9
123.7
125.8
126*U
127-3
130.2
129.1
116.* 5
125.5
rlli!2
133.2
rl20.'6
r!38.2
Pl3l*7
P135-3
111
116
136
(NA)
(NA)
102. 1*
102.6
103.1
103.0
103.3
103.1*
103.7
10l*.l
101*. 2
10l*.8
100.2
98.0
101.7
101.5
99.6
98.0
101.8
101.3
99.3
98.0
102.1
101.3
99.5
97.8
101.9
101.6
101.0
97.7
101.7
101.3
101.8
97.9
101.6
101.1
102.5
98.0
101.5
101.3
103.1
98.3
101.8
101.7
103.9
98.3
102.1
101.8
103.9
98.5
102.2
102.1
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and beverages • • • «
11*7. k
Pil*5*5
135.9
173.1*
P182.7
P131.0
(NA)
125.2
P125.9
(NA)
J.15.6
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral product?
Iron and steel
NA^Not available, preliminary, r = revised.
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau- of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
bed
MARCH
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1966
TABLE
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
«* • §
S
"=3
—i
^ § " " 0
^
-^
2£ • —»
<C
O
o
co
•L
>,
i _L
0 . 0 3 = 5
^
T
2
—*
<E
O
'
~p
i o
o
<u
O
co
T
O
t a o ^ - i
3
5?"
o
2
O
1966
!'-!=!><§'§!s.l^
S
U_
£
£5
>
< J c
-ii
>L
>»
c
-L
&o
z S ^ i S a ' S ' S ^ ^ ^
—j
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con,
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government. . . .
. ...
...
4 " 4 -
+
4-'
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
O
+
O
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
4
71
81
81
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
-
4
-
4
-
4
+
-
+
4
-
4
—
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
D47. INDEX.OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
/.
Transportation equipment
instruments and related products
Clay glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
•
*
...
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
67
52
-
*
-
__
75
83
-
- 4 -
+
92
+
65
+
+
71
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
-
-
-
+
+
+
4 - 4 -
+
+
4-
+
+
4
H-
+
+
0-
-
+
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
+
4
-
+
-
4
4
-
-
4
4-
4
-
-
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
..
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+•
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
NA
+
+
+
+ N A N A
+
+
+
+ NA NA
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
'+
+ NA
- N A N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+NA
- WA NA
- NA
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+ NANA
+ NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
+NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
NA NA
-
-
-
+
-
+
+
+ +NA
- NA NA
+
.
+
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
.
4.
+
61
61
61
54
4-
-
+
+•
52
70
74
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
. , .,
+
-
+
+
+
-
4.
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
-i-
N A
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
4
f
+
85 83 83 83 67 88 88 88 83 88
+ + + + + + + + + +
-L,
NA
i_
-
i
-+•
i
+
+
TiTA
NA
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
80
80
+
83
+
76
+
67
+
70
+
61
+
61
+
72
+
74
+
87
+
—
—
—
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+ NA
058. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
+
Iron and steel * * •
•
52
63
+
+
+
+
+
O
—
—
+
4- Arising; o = unchanged; - = falling, NA Not available.
•'•The percent rising is "based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent, rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures- for
the current month are rounded.
53
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
19 66
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan/
Feb.P
Index: 195 7-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING^-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
1199
101 0
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
109.1
loL ^
10"5 L
97 1
101.0
111 0
Nondurable goods.
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
p=preliminary.
x
102.9
108.5
99.5
102.8
96.0
103. £
99-6
97.?
9l|.l*
92.2
106. U
mo
lOli 7
10? 6
96 6
10$ 6
r*97 0
100 5
100 7
110 8
113 o
iol; i
106 2
107.7
100.7
103.9
108. k
100.1
103.8
9$. 8
95.7
103. li
103 6
100.1
100.1
97. k
97.5
9$. 5
93.2
107 . 3
95. h
93.5
107.6
115 8
101 1;
109 3
10) L 7
1O^ 9
97 ^
100 5
1
1 ^ ^^
-L-LJ.
106 3
107.2
100 . 9
lOli 7
95.6
103 6
100.2
97-5
95.5
93-5
108.1;
116 6
101 7
110 2
116 ft
101 7
117 ft
n 7.TJ.
-L-Lf
nft I.
im9
mo o
109 7
109 9
i n9 n
109 6
10^ 7
1O^ 9
96 7
inA n
in)< ft
1 nA 7
mA A
1OCf
£
lupo
100 7
100 3
i nA ^
in£ J
^
-LUp.
96 li
ion Z
96 5
in£ A
96
^
700
inn c?
i
m
1 f)9 9
97
1
7( «-L
i no £
T
1 O O
.Liy.y
i no 7
nnn
inA ft
intf A
97 A
i nn )i
n< i
J.J.P.
j.
11 9 9
lint;
107 0
107.1
100.8
105 1
9li.8
106 1
107. k
101 0
107.6
100 9
in^ 9
93 3
105 li
99 6
91 It
91 9
in)i i
100.5
97.6
96.8
93-1
112.6
in)i i
i n)i i
inli
XUU. 7
f
mli ft
100.8
97 £
98.0
93.1
113.3
100,9
97 7
97 7
93. ij.
rill;. 6
101.1
97 5
101.1
97 5
97 n
93. li
97 9
101 9
100.3
97.3
97. k
93. li
112.0
119 9
1O7 1
119 £
J.JL<iO
i
n9 cj
xuyo
107 9
108 3
inn 7
ion 9
i
J.UPnd
o ^ ifX 6
1O9 ft
91 9
116:6
mfl
108. 3
i nn 9
in1^ 6
91;. 0
118.9
r=revised.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
54
116 2
101 2
109.0
lOii 8
101 1;
109.5
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Basic data for components of diffusion index 019, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
6-month spans
1965
1965
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
=>.
TO
E
S=
rs
-^
"^
-^
„„
0.
^
<
-^
CD
<*»
>
1=
<->
.£3
o
o
<£
ro
O Z 9 T 1
<u
U-
|
|o l i
f jb* J_§
l<i^ «
>
il_
i
£ i 4 i IM £ 1I 4
o o >
Z
«
Q
—t
,
«
LU
5
E
S
<C
-
«
^
§
-
^
S
T^
5 =
£
A/i
P
^ < j
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURlNG-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
..
**
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
+
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods . . . .
.
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
-
+
0
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+•
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
O
-
O
-
O
+
+
-
+
+
+
O
+
-
-
+
-
+
O -
+
O
O
-
—
—
—
—
O
—
—
—
—
+
O
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
—
+
O
+
O
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
o
+
'+
+
—
+
+
+
+
o
+
Hides skins leather and leather products
+
+
+
O
+
0
+
0
+
+
«...
+
Percent rising 3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food cornposi te
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Pub) ishing
Chemicals
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retai 1 stores composite
Life insurance
1966
67
^
-s
0
25
l^ ^
80
«:^
81
&
«o
67
—
O
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
—
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
O
+
+
-
+
+
+
1965
j = = l
S * § - 5 g » & t S 5 « ! i «
= r ~ ^ ^ < ? c ? 9 = r £ ? " 2 u r
s
0
9-month spans
1965
Q
<c
-
' ,
1-month spans
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS *
(23 industry components)2
-
oS
70
0
z
^
a
57
74
£9
J " S | ^
^ 2
It§ls^«i5|
«
-»
_
>
1966
80
58 52 58 73
•
+
68
61
+
59 64 60
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
'
+
+
-
+
+
0
-
-
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
»-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
f-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
f
_
_
_
_
_
+
+
_
+
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
•"•Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 77 components.
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MARCH 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9- month spans
1-month spans
1965
19 66
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
>•%
ro
S
G
=3
-p
"5
^
an
3
<:
O.
<u
*?
•*-•
o
O
>
o * 5r£J
s= 9
* ! . > * I = _ L e =
> O A . . i i < >
O.
*°
3
3
o>
o O
< C S ^ - ^ < C c 5 j
0 2 :
05. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (211Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
60
SI
4
4
4
4
+
4
3/
?#
—
7Q
^7
/ *i
4
^1
c
-^
CTJOJ
T1
"J-
«->!=
32
ca
0
-^
3#
/^
-f"
4-
>•
f
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
—
—
4
4
4
4
4
4
—
4
4
4
4
—
4
—
4
4
—
4
—
__
4
-j_
4
4
-|_
—
4
4.
4
4
4
44
4
_j_
—
4
~
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
^_
4
4
o
a:
Q
-^
^70
/V
^70
/?
An
c»U
AA
ob
Ao
o«d
f^o
79
81
—
—
4
4
4
—
—
—
4
—
4
4
+
4
g"
0
S
Qi
^
4
4
-
-
-
4
^4
-
4
4
cL
1
Sf*
70
63
+
••
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
~~
+
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
—
—
—
—
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
~
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
4
—
4
4
4
4
4
'4
4
+
—
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
•4-
4
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
_
+
- . +
-
-
-
4
4
-
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
—
4
4
4
4-
4
"•
~
O
4
—
—
4
4
4
4
4
_
4
~
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+ - ( - ^ ,
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
—
4
4
-f-
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
4
*~
4
+
4
f\n
87
CD
—
4
4
4
4
rt-i
(0
c=
4
4
+
44
(D
O
4
4-
4 4 4
4 - 4 -
o
*-
co
4
4
Q.
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4 4 4
+
4
»
^ 5 3 s
<c
=*
4
4
s
1
Ll_
-
4
C
—
-j-
44
4
4
4
4
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
(Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
56
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND
EARLIER EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
57
CHART
MARCH 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
*-— May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
i IUUUIHUI
Percent
Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
materials prices
130
120
110
17. Ratio, price
to unit labor
cost, mfg.
110
100*!
105
.5
90
100 <
80
70
95
24. New orders, mach.
ana equip, indus.
19, Stock prices, 500
common stocks
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
200
190
180
170
160
150
210
200
190
180
170
160
150 ,
140
140 :
130
130 *
120
120
110
110
100*
100*
90
90
80
-11 -8
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months trom reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6, Various scales are used. Scale L-I is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-? i« a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak (evel * Point at wnich this expansion reached a new reference peak. QPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
CHART
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
MARCH 1966
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
TTT rrj n , M |
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
•*
| , , , , , , i ""|
Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
--
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
Percent
55. Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
115
110
105 j|
«"5
100*
95
J
-12-6
0 ,+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
85
-12-6
0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable
months of .previous.expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent Actual data rather than percentages of reference oeak levels,
*Reference peak level.
* Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
bed
MARCH 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
/*
-«
4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough: 4th Q. 1949)
Reference trough dates
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough: 3rd Q. 1954)
150
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
—
Percent
160
2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st Q. 1961)
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
INI! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
• Reference trough dates
UO
Percent
130
49. GNP in current dollars
120
140
135
130
»I
110-
CSJ
120
100*
115
110
90
105
100*
95
140
135
130
67. Bank rates on
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
130
125
short-term business loans
120
125
115
120
110
115
105
110
100*
105
95
TOO*
90
95
iimlmiiliiml
-12-6
linn h 11 IIMM 111 mull im Inii
0 +6+12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54+60
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0 +6+12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54+60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6. . Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. + Latest data anticipated.
^Reference peak level,
if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
60
bed
MARCH
1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Reference trough dates
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
........ July 1953 to Apr 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
•
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1
M
I
I
I
|""<|'IM1|"ml
I
+20
l""| Percent
+15
—Reference trough dates
-I 115
+10
62. Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
+5
-5
-10
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent 6-term moving avg.)1
I
-1+10
64. Book value of mfrs:
inventories
+4
-2
J
1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 H 111 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 11 i i 11 111 L 111 u 1111
-12 -6
0
+6 +12 -HIS +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
90
-12 -6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with, 1
cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. l Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
•'Reference peak level. -^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
61
JAW
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
!••
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough *
„„„ IN( bed
percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in-
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
99.3
(NA)
37-6
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
60th
59th
59th
60 th
10li.3
129.7
215.2
151*.0
100.8
103.6
98.2
137.0
8U.2
75.14
120. 1*
99.7
75.5
87.3
157.0
112.6
182.0
338.9
315.6
61*. 2
1*1.3
32.0
52.3
76.2
1*7.1
58.5
17.1*
98.1*
1*3.1
1*8.1
105.0
11*. 3
186.1*
60 th
103.5
139.3
1030
I3l*.0
66.7
60.0
13-0
122.0
205.8
59th
59th
60 th
152.3
115-1
95.7
116.0
133.3
55.2
12$. 1*
181*. 6
61*.5
11*0.0
82.0
1*5.7
(NA)
25.2
55.8
(NA)
11.9
89.8
61.6
126,3
103.5
109.6
1*7.1
83.3
22.6
57th
60th
60th
60th
60th
60th
165.1
105-3
167.9
118.0
156.9
190.2
120.0
100.1
U41-7
91.0
132.1
129-1
11*1.3
99.1*
2l*l*.5
107-7
11*3-6
113.1
9l*.l
93.6
210.5
81.6
137-2
11*6.6
(NA)
(NA)
100.0
(NA)
11*2.9
58.7
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.3 . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) . .
47 Industrial production
49. GNP in current dol lars (Q)
60 th
60 th
60th
57th
111;. 7
+1.5
137.7
138.1
106.3
-1.5
120.1
129.3
105.6
-2.7
110.9
132.5
86.8
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except NY..........
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55, Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
57th 127.5
60th
I67.ii
60 th '138.5
60th
131*. 3
118.9
11*8.9
129.2
120.7
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial, floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19. Stock prices 500 common stocks
......
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
138.5
81*. 7
112.2
(NA)
(NA)
29.1*
(NA)
31*. 3
73.1*
(NA)
(NA)
5i*.i
1*1.1*
(AN)
(NA)
123.1
(NA)
328.5
79.9
(NA)
(NA)
108.3
-2.0
126.2
138.2
133.1
(NA)
191*. 3
196.5
88.1
-18.5
71*. 9
80.8
61*. 9
(NA)
61.9
57.8
102.5
(NA)
125-7
123-6
(NA)
116.9
(NA)
115.2
11*6.8
132..3
129.5
123.9
11*1*. 8
136.1*
126.2
(NA)
165.7
198.8
11*0.1
95.5
57-0
78.1*
80.9
^77.6
51.3
59.0
62.2
126.0
11*5.6
128.2
111.8
(NA)
111*. 5
(NA)
115-6
223.3
(NA)
7l*.5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
60th
102.6
100.8
111.1*
108.7
112.2
90.1*
69.3
86.0
6U.2
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b Anticipated*
57th
63d
152.5
162.3
97.9
106.0
115.7
119.6
120.6
115.2
(NA)
(NA)
78.7
1*8.1*
20.9
20.3
128.2
123-2
68.1
69.0
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .
60th
59th
59th
57th
98.2
126.0
98.5
100.7
111.1
11*8. 1*
103.5
112.3
117.6
165.9
130.6
115.1*
11*1*. 8
266.6
13U.8
139.6
156.6
59.9
(NA)
95.0
107.8
123.8
53.3
68.2
(NA)
(NA)
101.0
83.1
(NA)
(NA)
109.6
73.3
(NA)
(NA)
82.1*
57th
58th
-7.1*
+8.96
-5.1
+6.22
+7-0
+0.11*
-8.1*
+6.52
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
1614.1
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
3
95. Surplus or def ici t, Fed. income and prod. acct.3 (Q)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits *5 .
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52,54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1,2r 3,6,7,9,13,14,17,24,29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates NA=not available.
x
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries,.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
62
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
MARCH 1966
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough1
Percent- change from reference trough of expansion beginning inFeb.
1961
June
1938
Mar.
1933
+0.6
-15.0
+30.2
+81.3
+28.3
+103.7
(NA)
(NA)
-7.4
+0,8
-13-3
+172.4
-35.6
-17.4
-82.5
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
+li.O
+li|.0
+70.2
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
60th
59th
59th
60th
+5.9
+20.0
+Hi8.5
+6ii.5
+55.3
+1.8
+16.0
+12.3
+34.4
60th
+3.ii
+43.5
-11.7
-4.4
-29-0
+297.3
59th
59th
60th
+63.5
+23.8
-2.1
+1*7.5
+39.7
-26.6
+29-4
+56.3
-32.3
+62.2
+32.5
-27.8
+66.1
-46.9
-(NA)
57th
60th
60 th
60 th
60th
60 th
+88.1
+6.3
+1*9.1
+23.7
+65.5
+12.6
+54.5
+5.6
+62. ii
+4.8
+49.6
+27.0
+47.4
+1.7
+93-3
+7.7
+54.1
-5.5
+15.5
-3.8
+102.5
+8.6
+56.5
-8.4
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultura) establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3.
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
60 th
60 th
60th
57th
+16.9
+3.1
+U6.0
+38. U
+10.7
+1.7
+39.7
+31.6
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
^
57th
60th
60 th
60th
+29. U
+63. h
+37.2
+36.9
60 th
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b Anticipated4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64 Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
2 Accession rate manufacturing* * *
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space^
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
-22.2
+7.0
+100.6
+55.0
-6.3
+5-5
+227.8
(NA)
+164-1
-87.5
+23-2
+110.2
+110.4
-29-6
(NA)
-86.3
-13.5
-33.1
+81.9
+39.8
+21.6
+72.7
+15.0
+3&.1
+18.5
+65.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+65.5
+76.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-58.7
-57.6
(NA)
(NA)
+128.6
(NA)
+215.4
-4.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+93-3
+40.1
(NA)
(NA)
+9.4
+0.8
+21.9
+33.5
+14.1 +48.5
+2.1
(NA)
+37.9 +184.4
+43-0 +123.1
+28.8
+6.9
+55.2
+60.3
-32.4
(NA)
-34.3
-42.4
+18.0
(NA)
+53.1
+26.5
+26.0
(NA)
+71.1
+40.3
+23.1
+53.7
+28.9
+22.6
+17.9
+44.5
+32.3
+30.4
+26.0
+50.8
+43.1
+26.2
+71.8
+32.5
+49.5
+59.3
+53-8
-24.1
-52.8
-41.5
-37.8
+26.4
+50.3
+28.1
+11.8
+39.0
+47.8
+46.7
+23-3
+2.7
+1.3
+12.3
+14.4
+18.7
+24.7
-25.5
-5.8
+1.5
57th
63d
+63-5
+7U.O
+21.9
+31.9
+21.1
+25.2
+50.7
+44.0
(NA)
(NA)
+359.0
+182.1
-76.2
-76.8
+83.8
+76.5
+98.3
+101,0
60 th
59th
59th
57th
-2.8
+27. h
+58.7
+6.0
-5.4
+15.3
+47.2
+19.9
+9.2
+25-8
+60.5
+36.8
+19.4
+55.1
+112.9
+34.3
+34.5
+65.4
-35.7
(NA)
+29.5
+81.9
+159.0
-31.6
-30.8
(NA)
(NA)
+4.9
-19-2
(NA)
(NA)
+24.9
-18.5
(NA)
(NA)
-23.5
57th
58th
+3.1
+3.U8
+9.9
+0.16
+5.8
-2.86
-2.1
+5.70
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
(NA)
+98.4
+123.3
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
3
95. Surplusor deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50,61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1,2,3,6,7,9,13,14,17,24,29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA=not available.
x
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CTCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of thft seasonally adjusted series,
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861 .
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
June 1857
October 1860. . . .
. . April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
*
May 1885
April 1888. . .
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893. . . .
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
August 3904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913. . . .
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945 . . .
November 1948. . .
July 1953
August 1954 .
April 1958
February 1961
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cvcle ref erence dates
. July 1957
. . .May 1960
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
1
(X) :
18 i
8 '•
32 '•
i
18
;
•
65
'
:
i
;
38
13
10 :
17
18 !
18
23 ;
13
24 :
23 i
7 !
i
18
14 !
13 ;
43 •
13 :
8
11
i
•1
:
13
-i=i
9
9
19
1
15
;
10
20
16
10
30 ;
22
46
"iJ 1
34
36
•
22
27
20
18
24
21
33
19
12
44
10
22
i
27
21
50
80
;
37
45
35
1
25
(X)
i
30
i
:
35
36
i
;
26
28
32
(X)
48
30
78
L^
36
99
(X)
40
5A
^t
50
52
101
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
49
50
46
X
49
2
54
3
45
45
42
4
46
5
48
6
46
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
5
X
3
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
6
2
4
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECiFiC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations
17 Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
May
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
'58
'57
'58
'57
<58
'58
»58
(NSC)
(NSC)
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Mar. »54
Sep. '53
Aug.
Feb.
July
June
June
Apr.
Jan.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49, GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
<,...,;
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. s*fl e^ <">f r^t^l s+.nre8 ,„.......*....,.......
Feb. '61 May
May '61 July
Feb. '61 Apr.
4thQ '60 IstQ
IstQ '61 IstQ
(NSC) Feb.
Dec. '60 May
Apr. '61 Mar.
'58 Aug. '54 Oct. »49 June
'58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June
»58 Apr. '54 Oct. '49 May
'58 2ndQ '54 4thQ '49 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ !'54 2ndQ !'49 IstQ
'58 Apr. 54 July 49 May
'58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June
(NSC) May
'58 Jan. '54
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip,. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing. Sep.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories.... June
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'61
'61
'61
'61
3rdQ
Apr.
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
'49
'50
'50
'50
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
May
'59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
'60 Mar.
'59 Feb.
'59 Oct.
'59 July
'59 Dec.
'59 Nov.
'58 Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. "51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
(NA)
'46 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
'46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23 Dec. '19
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'4B
(NSC) Mar. !23 July '19
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NA)
(NA)
'47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production. „
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
«
.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores » . . .
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ '57
3rdQ. '57
Aug. '57
Aug. '57
Aug. '57
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48 July
Jan. »48 July
July '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ «48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. »20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip. .2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 3rdQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NSC)
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing . Mar." '61 Apr. '58 Mar. '54 May '49 Dec. '37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Sep. '60 Sep. '57 Sep. '53 Jan. '49 Oct. '37 Jan. '30
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ '59 4thQ '57 4thQ '53 2ndQ '49 3rdQ '32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished,
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
66
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes
i/c
Period
covered
Monthly series
CI
I
C
1/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Avg. workweek, prod. workers, mfg
Jan. '53-Sep..1 65
.48
.42
Accession rate, manufacturing
Tan 1 *iT ^o-n * AS 4.75
4.47
Nonagri. placements, all industries... Jan.' 53-Sep. '65 1.83
1.34
Layoff rate manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.20
8.26
Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. ' 53-Sep, '6517.13 16.59
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. T 53-Sep. '§5 4.95
4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan.,1 53-Sep. '65, 3.76
3.33
1.
2
30.
3
4
5.
24. New orders, mach. -and equip, indus
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18
3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.69 4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
May '59-Sep. '65 7.16 7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.65
3.28
38. Index of net business formation
.79
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.60
13. New business incorporations
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.49
2.18
14 Liabilities of business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15 . Large busine ss failures
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6512.31 12.12
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
26. Buying policy production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
23 Industrial materials prices
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
.19
1.40
1.09
3.42
3.64
2.23
3.20
1.23
2.41
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.74
.84
.63
.77
.96
2.08
2.14
2.11
1.95
1.57
1.50
1.54
1.52
1.46
1.42
11.69
9.50
7.24
8.94
6.61
3.75
3.72
3.97
4.69
2.69
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1.42
1.58
12.67
8.44
3.97
4.41
1.52
2.51
3
.88
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97 9.41
1.43
3.08
.89 7.91
2.54
1.29
.53 1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
7.84
1.54
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
C1)
.84
C1)
.80
.66
.78
C1)
C1)
1.60
1.88
1.38
1.85
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55
1.48
1.71
1.38
1.52
1.63
1.63
1.39
1.46
12.67
9. '50
15.20
13.82
6.61
7.24
8.94
11.69
3.00
3.39
£.63
2.88
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58
.59
2.49
.49
1.68
.25
1.64
1.92
1.02
3
2
.81
.57
2.20
2.37
1.79
1.58
6.61
9.50
4.55
3.97
6.46
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
5.27
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
7.47
1.31
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
.30
.36
3.92
5.39
.14
.30
3.04
4.55
.26
.20
2.19
2.66
.55
1.50
1.39
1.71
1
2
2
2
.55
.80
.72
.91
4.90
2.01
2.54
3.41
1.46
1.60
1.60
1.56
16.89
25.83
8.16
7.82
4.90
3.42
3.95
4.00
4.19
3.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1.75
1.39
7.60
8.94
4.90
3.10
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .51
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr..Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.84
54 Sales of retail stores
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.89
55. Wholesale prices except farm products
and food s
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.16
.54
1.50
.26
.52
.76
.76
.64
.44
.63
.46
.71
2.34
.58
.82
1.67
1
3
1
1
2
.71
.58
.58
.82
.98
3.62
1.65
4.61
2.67
2.17
1.67
1.50
1.54
1.55
1.71
11.69
30.40
21.71
13.82
15.20
3.62
4.29
'4.61
2.67
3.51
.09
.13
.71
1
.71
3.90
1.54
8.00
3.90
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42
43,
40
45.
Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Total nonagricultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, total. .............Jan. ' 53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate married males
Nov. '54-Dec. '65
Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep, '65
46. Help-wanted advertising
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
47 Industrial production
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost
64 Book value
65 . Book value
tories of
per unit of output, mfg
of mfrs. ' inventories
of manufacturers! invenfinished goods
3.51
6.61
21.71 10.13
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan.f 53-Sep. '65
.56
.53
.40
.19
.32
.49
1.28
.38
2
1
.72 2.41
.38 10.13
1.57
1.63
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan '53-Sep '65
.56
.84
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
1
1
.65 8.94
.14 11.69
1.49 13.82 8.94
1.63 21,71 11.69
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
1.48
1.77
2.00
1.62
1.88
1.92
9.50
6.61
8.00
5.67
8.00
5.56
2.53
3.68
3.68
3.61
3.66
10.00
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82
83
90.
91.
92
99
114
115
116
117
118.
Federal cash payments to public
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '55-Dec. '64
Jan. '56^Sep. '65
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Military contract awards in U.S
4.42 4.25
3.80
3.87
27.42 27.34
13.86 13.59
24.51 24.35
.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
8.28
2.94
6
6
6
6
6
C1)
C1)
I1)
C1)
C1)
New orders defense products
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
...
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields
Mortgage yields
22.53 22.53
5.00
6.70
1.31
1.65
1.44 1.31
2.08
2.46
.07
.11
1.92 11.72
4.46 1.12
.93 1.41
.53 2.48
1.90
1.10
.65
.11
6
2
2
4
3
1
C1) 1.57
.73 ' 2.53
.98 2.76
.93 2.27
.87 2.58
.65 10.00
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
..... . Jan
. ! 53-Sep !65
Jan. '60-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jul. '61-Sep. '65
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1,—Average Percentage Changes—Continued
I/C
Period
covered
Monthly series
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES^-Con.
3.81
3.04
.15
6.64
1.45
3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54
.94
.80
.13
1.55
1.28
3.77
3.59
.69
4.12
.42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.69
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63
1.66
1.62
1.54
1.52
1.57
14.10
10.85
16.89
8.00
10.86
4.06
3.54
5.63
3.15
5.63
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan.' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37
21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
Period
covered
CI
T
C
I/C
86. Exports, excluding military aid
Jan.'53-0ct.'64
87. General imports
Jan.'53-Oct. '64
81. Consumer prices
„
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
94 . Construction contracts, value
Jan.'53-Sep.'65
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan.' 53-Sep. '65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
„
122. United Kingdom
s
121. OECD European countries,
125. West Germany
126 . France
,
127. Italy
'
,
128. Japan
Quarterly series
1/5
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
Nevr capital appropriations, mfg
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of stales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate , all industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 10.36
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 5.60
IQ»53-IIIQ'65 6.03
4.70
3.09
3.59
7.69
4.29
3.80
.61
.72
.95
1
1
1
.61
.72
.95
2.94
3.33
2.38
1.32
1.32
1.35
3.33
5.00
4.17
2.94
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
4.34
2.87
3.11
.92
1
.92
2.38
1.25
5.00
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53»IIIQ'65
1.23
1.47
1.30
.38
.35
.31
1.09
1.39
1.26
.35
.25
.25
1
1
1
.35 3.33
.25 5.56
.25 10.00
IQ»53-IIIQ'65
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
1
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
.84
.42
.67
.62
1
.62
2.94
1.22
5.56
2.94
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 11.47
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.63
7.37
2.47
1.20
7.95
3.27
6.38
.93
.75
.19
1
1
1
.93
.75
.19
2.38
2.08
4.17
1.16
1.25
1.32
3.85
4.17
8.33
2.38
2.08
4.17
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars . „
57. Final sales
1.28
5.56 3.33
1.22
5.56
7.14
1.16 ' 10.00 10.00
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110 . Total private borrowing
Ill , Corporate gross savings „
97. Backlog of capital appro. , mfg
Hlot computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Businesss October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series, "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the /same for the cyclical
68
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages> without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For.monthly series, it is shown for 1-month jspans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period.
For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with the number of
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
terms equal to
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls "between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
debits, all SMSA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months.
The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A p p e n d i x C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.—Average Unit Changes
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Period
covered
Unit of
me a sure
CI
I
C
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.60
3.47
.74
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
do
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
1.51
.29
1.44
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.48
.46
.13
Jan. '55-Dec. '64 Ann. rate,
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
bil. dol.. 4.34
4.22
.82
93, Free reserves
* .... Jan. '53- Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46.86
85 . Change in money supply
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
percent. . . 3.11
3.12
.29
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 ....do
.29
2.53
2.52
112. Change in business loans
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
1.35
bil. dol.. 1.39
.35
.79
.31
.87
113. Change in consumer installment debt... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
do
88. Merchandise trade balance ............. Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28
Quarterly series
Period
covered
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
89a U.S. balance of payments (liquidity).. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
Unit of
measure
CI
I
4.70
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
8.94
2.79
6.08
7.60
3.00
3.10
.98 1.59 1.43 7.44
.68 2.03 1.60 30.13
2.74
3.49
.98 1.48 1.45
X
6 ( )1.67 1.50
4 .98 1.69 1.62
5.16
1.68
5
3
10.88
8.78
C
5
4.97
3.51
3.87
2.56
3.23
I/C
Ann. rate,
1.44 1.00
1.43
bil. dol.. 2.28
2.49
.76
1.35
1.78
do
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
•'•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C MCD MCD
I
C MCD
span CI
6 t 1 ) L.37 1.37 9.50 2.67
6 (l)1.43 1.43 10.13 2.41
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64
3 .92 1.65 1.49 10.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42
2.56
3.13
2.64
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
QCD QCD
I
C QCD
span CI
2 .46 1.79 1.35 4.55 .2.88
1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85 2.17
2 .45 1.67 1.25 3.13 2.72
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown
part 1.
above have the same meaning as in
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1965 TO JUNE 1966)
1965
1966
c<i
Series
May
June
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
77.6 73 8
5. Average weekly initial claims. State
unemployment insurance
82 3 83.8
103.1 105.8
13. New business incorporations1
95.7 106.6
14. Liabilities of "business failures
15 . Large "business failures
17. Ratio , price to unit labor cost, mfg.
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg...
81. Consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public1
83. Federal cash receipts from public1...
90.
91,
92.
112.
128.
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement....
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S... .
Change in business loans3
Japan, industrial production index...
July Aug. Sept.
107.2 140.3 86.9 90.4 89.9
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
M-iy June
92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1 92.6 73.3
81.9
105 3 83.9 77.4 88.6 104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1 82.6
102.6 95.0 93.1 94.9 86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2
100.7 104.7 96.7 95.8 107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1
99.5 102.3 86.3
101.3 102.5 96.3
106.3
107.4 111.3 102.4
107.1 99.0
Oct. Nov.
95.7 91.3 94.6 95.0 83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106,7
98.8 101.8 102.7 100.6 97.5 98.2 99.5 100.2 10.1.0
96.3
100.5
96.9
112.2 121.8 111.7 97.6 82.1 79.3 76.7 92. 8 102.1
94.8 92.9
92.7 90.2
88.6 92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9
100.0
99.5
100 0
101 4
101.6
100.0
98.6
99.7
98 4
117.5
99.9 99.9 99.9 99.8
97.7 104.1 101.2 98.3
99 9 100 2 100 0 100 1
104 0 97 0 114 2 96 9
152.3 49.1 114.4 124.9
100.0
97.0
100 1
101 9
45.4
93.8
88 6
90 2
100 0
100.1
179.9 87.4 87.1
143 1 115 2 92 4
171 9 72 8 88 4
99 6 98 9 98 5
99.8 100.0 96.4
100.0 96.4
106 3 91 7
101 1 85 4
99 9 101 3
99.6 98.8
93.2
99 7
103 9
99 3
99.5
100.8 101 ,,6
101.4 102.6
..»
106.2
110.7 109.8
101.6
100.0
100.6
99 9
94 4
113.0
100.0
99.8
99 9
94 1
126.5
100.0 99.9 99.9
98.9 98.6 97.7
99 9 99 3 99 9
97 |f 100 3 104 7
SO. 4 118.4 152.6
99.2 82.8 83.4
96 1 94 4 82 0
qn *s 95 5 87 2
101 3 100 4 99 5
102.3 94.0 100.7
99.2
97 5
113 8
300 5
108.2
95.6 95.7 179.0
96 1 91 4 142 2
100.1
102.6
100 0
105 8
107.9
100.1
102.3
100 0
91 4
68.0
QO i
m
7
ftA ^
100
5 TOO 2 99 8
99.4 99.9 100.6
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
x
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors .may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in .middle month of quarter.
3
Faetors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920- July
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937- June
Feb.
Nov .
July
July
May
1945 -Oct. 1945^
1948-Oct . 1949
1953-Aug . 19545
1957-Apr. 1958
1960-Fe"b. 1961
Reference peak to reference trough
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
CNA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
-5.6
-6.5
-3.6
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948.
50. GNP 49. GNP
in 1958 in curdollars rent
dollars
(Q)1
(Q)1
51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-6.2
0.0
0,0
-47.4
-18.5
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-1.2
-16.0
-8.8
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-1.8
-1.2
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
Oct . 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug . 1954-July
Apr . 1958-May
Reference trough to reference peak
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+17.5
+13.0
+13.0
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct . 1926.
1927-Aug. 1929.
1933-May 1937. . .
1938-Feb. 19454
1948.
19535 . ,
1957
1960
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945. . .
CNA)
43. Unemployment rate, total
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
Rate at
peak
Rate at
trough
2
2
2
4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11,2
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
2
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.8
+3.4
3.5
7.1
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.1
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
51. Bank
debits,
all
SIXBA's
except
New York
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0
-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+19.9
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+14.7
+23.2
-2.6
-2.0
6.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
2
2
Rate at
trough
Rate at
peak
2
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
3.2
1.9
3
3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
S/orld War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
1
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research,, Inc.
71
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
{See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Tables
Charts
1
2
3
1
2
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
73
July '64
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. .
2 Accession rate manufacturing
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4 Temporary layoff all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43, Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
L
L
L
L
L
L
U
L
L
L
Lg
U
U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
L
L
L
14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14
59
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
62
63
66
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
72
70
70
70
' 66
'66
64
'63
'66
'65
'66
'63
' 63
'64
'66
'66
72
*66
*66
71
71
72
72
*66
*66
*66
71
71
71
Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Jan.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
71
71
70
72
72
71 *66
72
71
72
Aug .
Aug.
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug .
Mar.
' 65
'65
'64
'65
'65
'63
' 65
'65
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
' 65
' 65
' 65
'63
'64
'63
68
65
72
66
68
Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.
'64
' 64
'65
' 64
'64
*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
' 64
' 64
'64
' 64
' 63
' 64
'64
*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74
Jan.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug .
Oct.
Oct.
Aug .
Oct.
June
Sept.
'64
'64
'64
' 64
'65
'65
' 65
'65
' 64
'65
r
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
49 GNP in current dollars
50 GNP in 1958 dollars.
47. Industrial production
52 Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
54 Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
60
60
59
a
••
••
71
71
71
71
411. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
38. Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries. .
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment11 New capital appropriations mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .
Ill Corporate gross savings
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-.
u
••
58
60
70
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31 Change, mfg. and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65 Mfrs ' inventories, finished goods
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .
t8
Lg
L
L
60
62
63
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg
68, Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost, mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
Lg
^g
L
L
L
14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
61
58
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68
70
70
70
70
70
L = leading, C = rougllly coincident, Lg = lagging, U - unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
73
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
Charts
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
F
E
Page
G
Issue
Page
Issue
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
85. Change in money supply
U
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93 Free reserves
66. Consumer installment debt . *
Lg
113. Change, consumer installment debt
U
U
112. Change in business loans
110. Total private borrowing
U
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
114
115
116
117
118
67.
14
15
L
21
21
21
21
21
18
12
12
U
U
U
U
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Corporate bond yields ....»
Municipal bond yields
Mortgage yields
Bank rates on short-term business loans . .
Liabilities of business failures
Large business failures
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
68
68
69
69
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
U
U
U
U
U
Lg
61
61
62
63
62
63
62
62
63
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
73
66
70
71
71
72
Aug.
Aug .
Oct.
Aug .
July
July
Nov.
'65
' 65
'64
' 64
' 64 73
' 64 73
'65 73
71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66
July
July
July
July
July
Aug .
Nov.
Mar.
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
'64
' 64
'63
'64
71
72
72
74
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July
'66
'66
'66
'65
73
73
73
72
70
70
70
66
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug .
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
'65
'65
'65
' 65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oet.
Oct.
Oct.
Oet.
Oet.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
74
70
70.
70
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
'64
' 64
'64
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
'64
' 64
'64
' 64
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
86
87.
88.
89
Exports excluding military aid
Genera! imports
„
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of payments
VIM. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed, income and prod, account . .
91. Defense Department obligations, total. . . .
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92 Military contract awards in U S
99. New orders, defense products
61
62
63
70
70
70
70
70
••
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122.
123
125.
126.
127.
128.
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production, OECD
production, United Kingdom
production, Canada
production, West Germany
production, France
production, Italy
production, Japan
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl. Average workweek
D5. Initial claims
D6. New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter..
••
••
••
-
D19. Stock prices
D23.
D34,
D35.
D36.
1-month. .
9-month..
Industrial materials prices .... 1-month. .
9-month. .
Profits, mfg
1-quarter. .
Net sales, mfrs
4-quarter. .
New orders
4-quarter. .
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month. .
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month..
D48. Freight carload ings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month. .
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter, .
••
••
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
72
68
73
73
72
69
73
73
Mar.
Oet.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
'65
'64
'65
' 65
'65
'64
'65
'65
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
55
55
48-9
48-9
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oet.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
••
••
••
*•
••
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
74
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