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March 1965

•CD




DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY
SERIES ESI NO.

New Features and Changes for This Issue
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
BCD Technical Papers

_

_
__.

.

in
iv
iv

©©©©FDIpflo©^© ©[race] [ptr©©©^]cLap©^
Introduction
.
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
____
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
____

.
:

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1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6

dM^o© E)i}fe]
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series

___

8
10
24

iD
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE

3.
2.
4.
5.

Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods _ _
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Direction of Change for Components of Selected Diffusion
Indexes

ABOUT THE COVER—

Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.

38
39
42
46

65-3

CONFINTS
CONTINUED




CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
CHART 4. Comparisons of Specific Cycles
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough
Dates
___
„_
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
„__
TABLE 8. Comparisons From Specific Peak and Trough Levels and Specific
Trough Dates

Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators
,-_
»
Appendix C. Average Changes and. Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
__
_^__
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series
__
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series

Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes

56
59
62
63
64

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65

~_

66
67

___

70

71
72

___

75

• A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.

Changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 51, on bank debits outside New York, has
.

.

been revised by the source agency for the period beginning January 1964.

This revision involved the expansion

of the geographical limits of the reporting centers from
the city to the standard metropolitan statistical area
(SMSA). The revised series covers all SMSA's except
New York ( 2 areas); formerly, 343 cities outside New
24
York City were included. It is estimated that the new
series covers an additional 2 percent of total aggregate
demand deposits.

The data shown in BCD for the period

prior to 19&4 have been raised to the level of the later
data by ratio adjustment.
2. Appendix F includes data for series 51 and 110,
and diffusion indexes over 1-month spans for Dl and D5.

The April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled for release on April 220




111

''

'

'

'

l

A punch card file containing data for the business cycle series included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the
Bureau of the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 series, the 30 diffusion
indexes, and 145 of the component series are available at cost. (The other series
can be obtained only from the sponsoring agencies,) The cost for these cards
ranges from $58 for 500 cards to $137 for 5,000 cards. One card is required
per series year. Thus, for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to date, the cost
would be about $70. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes
and 145 component series, the cost would be about $135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current.
However, the figures for the principal series and diffusion indexes required for
this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.

To aid users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS, technical papers dealing
with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this
report from time to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available,
free of charge. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1.—Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in
the September 1963 issue). A new version of this program is scheduled
to be released later this year. Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators—The Known and the Unknown by Julius
Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue).
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published
in May 1964 issue).
No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964
issue).
No. 5.—Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue).
No. 6.—The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective by Julius Shiskin
(published in January 1965 issue).

Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic
Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.




IV

Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.

tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
[>

NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.

[>

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.

[>

NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.

The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of commitments that take a
long time to consummate, and holdings of inventories
and of debts.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.

Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac-

Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:




|>

Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional

U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations,
^>

|^

Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 to 8).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.

In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.

TURNING

Adjustments for changes in average climatic conditions and institutional arrangements during the year are
also made by Census Method II. In addition, series
such as new building permits are adjusted for variations
in the number of trading or working days and series
such as retail sales of apparel are adjusted for variable
holidays (for example, Easter).
Studies of the effect of unusual weather upon some
series have also been started. It is important to note,
however, that present methods adjust for average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this
average; that is, present methods are designed to adjust for normal, but not abnormal weather at any time
of the year. For this reason, many seasonally adjusted
series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in
months when the weather is unusually bad and high
in months when the weather is unusually good. While
it eventually may be possible, Census methods do not at
present make any adjustments for such variations.

'

The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.

SEASONAL AND
STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENTS
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this report,
if they are available. However, for the special purposes
of business cycle studies, a number of series that are
not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are
shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed
by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using
Census Method II. The adjustment factors are shown in




appendix D, except for those series which are the sums
of seasonally adjusted components, and those series
which are based on unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will
be substituted whenever they are published.

MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The differences between moving averages of the
period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by
the same MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3month spans. MCD moving averages all have about the
same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular series, such as business
failures and Federal cash payments, will show their
cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally
adjusted data for such smooth series as industrial production and personal income.

MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 15-term Spencer curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1

Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change, These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
1

For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).




3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle:—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion,
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.

Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
group, the percent of the series which has risen over
given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead
the turning points of the aggregate and they measure
how widespread a business change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all components rising) and
zero (all components falling). Widespread increases
are often associated with rapid growth in aggregate

activity, and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.

Direction-of-Change Table
The direction-of-change table (table 5) shows directions of change (" + " for rising, "o" for unchanged,




and "—" for falling) in the components used for the
diffusion indexes. This table provides a convenient
view of changing business conditions and is helpful
in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went
up, which went down, and how long such movements
have persisted. The table also helps to show how
a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the
economy to another.
Directions of change for most diffusion index components are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either
6- or 9-month spans.

In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the indicator series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference trough
dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and
by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or
falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of
the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the
level at the current month. For each earlier expan-

sion, data for a like period (same number of months
from the trough of the expansion) are compared with
the level at the trough. The same situation exists here
as for the comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier
expansions that were shorter than the current one,
the comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
from reference peak dates. These comparisons will
be made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same for
all series), comparisons are made on the basis of
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
For example, the specific peak for the index of industrial production is January 1960 (corresponding
to the May 1960 reference peak); the specific peak
for stock prices is July 1959. (See appendix B.)
Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 8. For
earlier expansions, these comparisons differ from those
shown for reference cycles in that they show only the
period up to the next specific peak date and do not
include any part of the contraction that followed. For
some series, therefore, the earlier comparisons cover
fewer months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the initial date covered by the series
used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to
be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have
undergone change in definition, coverage, or estimation
procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this sort
are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit).



Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical
time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.

Cyclical Comparisons
(charts 3 and 4)
These charts compare the performance of selected indicators during the current expansion with their performance during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is
disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the
strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions,
the reference trough (see chart 3) and specific trough
(see chart 4). Thus, these comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to
cyclical movements during the expansions of previous
cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart
3 compares the pattern of the current reference cycle
(the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phases of previous reference cycles. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle (the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases of
previous specific cycles in that series. In both1 charts,the
trough dates are alined. In chart, 3, the levels of the
preceding peaks are also alined while in chart 4, the
levels of the troughs are alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons.

Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.

CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
"12" = December)

See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.

Solid line indicates monthly data, v
(Data may be actual monthly fig- N^
ures or MCD moving averages.

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
;"ir = second quarter)

Broken Mne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.

Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, etc.).

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.

Scale shows percent of components rising.

Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.

* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2l/2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.




Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("Ill" —
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.

Section ONE

charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investmentf buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS




Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS

Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries

TABLE

P
^

BASIC DATA

bed

MARCH 1965

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Jan.
1965

Dec.
1964

Nov.
1964

Percent change2
Average
change,
195319633

Feb.
1965

Nov.
to
Dec.
1964

Dec.
'64 to
Jan.
1965

Jan.
to
Feb.
1965

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3
4
5.

Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Temporary layoff all industries
Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance

Hours
Per 100 employ..
Thous
Per 100 employ .
Thous

6. New orders, durable goods industries
Bil.dol
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
do
9, Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . . sq. ft
Mil.
floor space....
Bil. dol
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
4
do
11. New capital appropriations manufacturing
7.
29.
12.
13
14,

Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Net change in number of businesses 4, 5
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures

15. Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes4
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing4
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
al 1 industries4

Ann. rate, thous.
1957-59=100....
Thous
Number
Mil. dol

41.2
r4.1
518
rl.6
109

41.4
P3.9
520
pl.4
79

P41.4
(NA)
548
(NA)
124

0.5
4.8
1.8
9.4
17.8

+0.7
0.0
-5.6
-6.7
-22.5

+0.5
-4,9
+0.4
+12.5
+27.5

0.0
(NA)
+5.4
(NA)
-57.0

262

do

40.9
4.1
549
1.5
89

251

243

248

5.3

+4.2

+3.2

-2.1

19.45
3.88

r20.72
r3.92

r21.27
r4.01

p21.10
P3.77

3.8
4.5

+6.5
+1.0

+2,7
+2.3

-0.8
-6.0

49.61
4.92
P4.38

58.88
r4.94

53.20
P4.77

9.7
4.9
11.4

+18.7

+0.4

-9.6
-3.4

(NA)
(NA)

1,429
111.0
+19
17,103
111.00

rl,609
103.5

rl,434
rl!5.8

pi, 409
p!12.2

+12.6
-6.8

-10.9
+11.9

17,154
126.49

17,275
84.54

(NA)
107.57

7.3
3.8
2
2.7
16.9

+0.3
-14.0

+0.7
+33.2

(NA)
-27.2

40

35

40

13.1

+4.8

+12.5

-14.3

r!05.0

r!04.4

p!04.8

+1.4

-0.6

+0.4

-1.7

+2.6

+0.7

No. per week . . .
42.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
P31.7
1957-59=100.... rl03.5
Cents
(NA)
Percent...

plO.4

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
1941-43 10
21. Change in business inventories, all industries4. 5 .. Ann. rate,
bil. dol
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories^
.... do
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories
of materials and suppliesS
.. ..do

85.44

(NA)
(NA)

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industriesS
23. Industrial materials prices*

6.3
0.7
6.8,

-1.7
-3.1

5.1

83.96

86.12

86.75

+5.7

2.6
2.5

r+8.7

r+11.2

pfS.l

(NA)

3.5

+2.5

-3.1

(NA)

+3.5

r+2.0

Pfl.3

(NA)

1.5

-1.5

-0.7

(NA)

60

58

60

61

6.8

-3.3

+3.4

+1.7

.... do

64

65

65

65

5.8

+1.6

0.0

0.0

..do

70

66

68

72

7.7

-5.7

+3.0

+5.9

+0.27
113.2

iH-0.55
112.5

r+0.19
110.6

pf0.6l
110.7

0.49
1.3

+0.28
-0.6

-0.36
-1.7

+0.42
+0.1

58,878
66,084
4.9
2.4
3.4

r59,206
66,463
5.0
2.6
3.6

r 59; 328
66,771
4.8
2.7
3.4

p59,560
66,709
5.0
2.6
3.3

0.3
0.4
3.9
5.6
4.8

+0.6
+0.6
-2.0
-8.3
-5.9

+0.2
+0.5
+4.0
-3.8
+5.6

+0.4
-0.1
-4.2
+3.7
+2.9

134
r!35.0

137
' r!37.5

137
ri.38.1

p!45
p!38.8

3.1
1.1

+2.2
+1.9

0.0
+0.4

+5.8
+0.5

+2.7
+0.7
+1.2
+5.2
+0.1

0.0
+0.8
+0.7
+0.4
0.0

+1.5
+0.1
+0.8
+0.6
+0.2

Percent

Bil dol
1957-59=100....

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42,
43,
40.
45,

Employees in nonagricultural establishments
Thous
Total nonagricultural employment
do
Unemployment rate, total ;
Percent
Unemployment rate, married males
do
do
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State . . .

46, Help-wanted advertising
47, Industrial production4
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49. GNP in current dollars4
57. Final sales4
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

1957-59.100
do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do

,

522.7
634.6
628.8

Bank debits outside NY
do
r2,730.3 r2,803.5 r2,803.3 p2, 845.1
Personal income
<R>
502.3
r510.2
505.9
P510.7
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, constr
do
132.0
130.4
r!32.9
P133.9
Sales of retai 1 stores
Mil. dol
21,661 r 22, 781 r22,88l
p23,015
Wholesale prices except farm products and foods. . . 1957-59=100....
101.6
101.7
101.7
plOl.9




1.3
1.5
1.3
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.2

bed

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MARCH 1965

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued

Percent change2

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Nov.
1964

Unit of
measure

Dec.
1964

Jan.
1965

Average
change,
195319633

Feb.
1965

Nov.
to
Dec.
1964

Dec.
'64 to
Jan.
1965

Jan.
to
Feb.
1965

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP*
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67 Bank rates on short-term business loans*4

Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ......
1957-59=100....
do
Bil. dol

-47.75
r97.9
p!06.3

r96*.5

r97.2

62.4

r62.9

p63.2

(NA)

do
Mil. dol
Percent

57,732

r22.2
58,292

p22.3
58,962

(NA)
(NA)

135.5
115.7
-19.8

118.0
110.8

1,870

966

(NA)

5,325
1,883
rl.87

4,278
1,830
r2.33
r+103

(MA)
(NA)

+3.00
+11.76

21.9

ra48.85
P97.1

3.2
0.6
0.9
0.5

-i'.4

+0.7

+2.3
-0.1

+0.8

+0.5

(NA)

0.8
0.8
2.3

+1.4
+1.0

+0.5
+1.1

(NA)
(NA)

5.7
5.4
5.6
2.5

+22.1

-12.9

+1.2

-4.2

-23.1

+12.6

+3.1
+6.8
+3.8

26.9

+71.7

-48.3

(NA)

+25.9

-19.7

-6.2
+4.5

-2.8

P2.39
+32

15.1
26.2
23.0

104.2

+202

+24.6
-65

(NA)
(NA)
+2.6

p-5.28
p+6.24

2.78
2.52

-1.56
-3.48

+0.72
+4.56

-8.28
-5.52

+8.30
+3.11

+3.73
+1.32

+0.79

+6.6
+0.5

-0.8

5.00

•

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83
84.
95
90.

Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash surplus or deficit5
Balance Federal income and product account4* 5
Defense Department obligations, procurement

91
92.
99.
93
85

Defense Department obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves* 5
Change in money supply5

98 Change in money supply and time deposits5
110. Total private borrowing4
111. Corporate gross savings4
112 Change in business loans5 . .
113.
114
115
116
117

Change in consumer installment debt s
Treasury bill rate*
Treasury bond yields*
.
Corporate bond yields*
Municipal bond yields*
..

118
86.
87.
88.
89

Mortgage yields*
. .
Exports, excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance55
U S balance of payments4-

81.
94.
96
97.

-

Ann. rater
bil. dol.
do
do
do
.
Mil. dol
do
......do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
. Ann. rate,
bil dol
do
Percent
do
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
do
do

1957-59400....
Consumer prices
do
Construction contracts value
Bil. dol
Unfilled orders durable goods industries
6
do
Backloe of caoital aooroDriations. manufacturing . .

111.0

|
!

1H.3
+3.3

P-5.1
1,089

A, 228
2,008
1.79

-34

+3.84
+10.68

'

+168

+2.28
+7.20

-7.2

121.7 '
118.3
-3.4

67,052
43,604

11.6

4.3

+0.32
+3.61

+8.62
+6.72

3.62
4.12
4.47
3.18

3.86

5.45

-71

4.14
4.47
3.13
5.45

2,196.8
1,697.7
+499.1
-1,317

2,430.4
1,642.2
+788.2

108.6
143
53.41

108.9
154
r53.96
P15.31

r+12.35
+8.04
3.83
4.14
4.44
3.06
5.45

1,217.3
1,206.4
+10.9

+13.14
(NA)
3.93
4.16
4.44
3.09
5.45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

1.22
0.85

7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6
0.58

4.6
3.6
59.0

0.0
-1.6

0.0
•+10. 6
-3.3

+289.1

0.0
-0.7
-2.2

0.0
-49.9
-26.5
-777.3

(NA)
+2.6
+0.5

0.0
+1.0

0.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

286

109.0
137
r54.14

(NA)
(NA)

P54.75

0.2
7.0
1.5
6.6

+0.3
+7.7
4-1.0

+0.1

-11.0
+0.3

(NA)
(NA)
+1.1

+2.1

r= revised; p = preliminary; e - estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available.
ISeries are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in
table 2,
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that
ises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g.,
if the rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as +0.6. See footnote 5 for other "change"qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of
neasure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.




BASIC DATA

MARCH 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators




r~ HI

,
i

_j

—

i

[.4.4. _
41
4«

<u

s

bed

CHART

MARCH 1965




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

24. Ne$~ortlers, taachTTand equip. |indus,f{t)R d

__L_J
,__-. __.™|_j
!-—
9. Constr. contracts, com. and ipdus. (mi|. sq. ft

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued




change, no.' of businesses (incus.

|jjrnTl.r
IT 1.1111J

bed

MARCH 1965




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Corporate profits-Jafto-taxes^ Q (oiw.-Faler4M.de-4- •-—^

CHART

DATA

MARCH 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

tory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices




,

(

I

I

" "T
j|

;

21. C iange in bus. inventories, pit indus,, Q (ann. rcte, bil. dot.)

31. | Change iin book value, mfd. and
trade inventories llann. ratfe, Bil. dol.
MCD movihg avg.44 term)

20.; Change; injf DOOK V^lue^ mtrjsTInventories df
i materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. do 1. ^
, MCD moving avg.
'

irchbsed materi|ils, percent reporting hipher inventories

percent reporting commitments 60 day

fprmari'ce, percent? reporting sibwer deliveries

dur. goods incus,

(bit

bed

bed

MARCH 7965




BASIC DATA

CHART

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

1. Employees in nonagr

—4 3.—Un en pleyrn e nt f at e=

^|0. Unemployment; rate, {married) males
(per cjentr i nve r|ed_j^ojje)
J

[p e.r.ce nt j- J nv erted__icg, e

. Helpjwonied qg^ertismg (indqx:_jl957-59=100

jiii^

B

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued




dustrial production (ind|tx: !1957-$9=100

49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
i

i

i;

il

.

;

I'

bed

bed

MARCH 1965




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

m prod, and foods (incex: 195J

'

iiybjliilW

CHART

CHART

BASIC DATA

bed

MARCH 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators

,

,

!

,

.

61.__B|is._e_x_pel[id.(_ new plant qnd equip., Q (ann. rate) bii. do(.)

-

62. {Labor cost per unit of output, rr fgJ

L

i

'

(indekTl95i59=H)d| -

1 —4 I i ; 4

'

rmrn IT
-H-TT--JiJi.v^r-

r

rrL iiuir

J

j^gbor co11 per dpi, of r

GNP, Q y[mded[J?57-5

-.^




J

UJLlJU

mtories, finished goods

bus. loans, Q (percent)

1

JLJ

1 I

;!

!l

bed

MARCH




CHART

1965

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

Dept, obdJ
moving avq.J-6 term

"

BASIC DATA

MARCH 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued




85, Chnge in inoney supply f

te borrowing, Q (onn. role, bit. dot.)
r T=

=^^

—--•--=-~°~= '

'"". ~

\J
V^

'

i

•

jimm

consumer installment debt (ann. rate,

bed

MARCH




1965

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

ll|lijl./.::; il'jlluliiUljJ^^

CHART

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued




Backlog o^cgii agjjroji nations! mfq., Q fbil. d IJ

g i i

g i t

i | ,

|

t i g

i l l

bed

bed

MARCH 7965




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons

. AiLu^iU^^

CHART

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Average
workweek,
production
Year and month workers ,
manufacturing
(Hours)

2. Accession 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manu- cultural
rate, manuplacements, facturing
facturing
all industries

(Per 100
employees )

(Thous . )

(Per 100
employees )

4. Persons
on temporary
layoff, all
industries1

(Thous . )

5. Average
weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance2

6. New orders, durable goods
industries

24. New orders, machinery and
equipment
industries

(Thous.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

343
316
329

15 92
16 12

in/
in ^
296

3 03
1 07
2 88

16 26
16 74
17 26

? QT
? QA

301
295

17.70
17.70
17 15
17.02
17 22
16.65
16 91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33

3.15
3.30
2 97
3.31
3 10
3.02
3 07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07

310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301

18 47

1 2^
q pi
^ ??

1 Q 7>
1?. /4

1961

Jil]y
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July, ...,.,,,.,.
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

40.0

4.0

40 1

42

39.6
40 3
40 6
40.3

43
43
41

3.7

40.1
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.4
40.3

(EJ4.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.2

40.5
40 3
40 4
40.1
40 4
40.5
40 4
40.4
40.5
40.6
40 5
40.7

38
38
38

40 2
40 7
40 6
40 7
40 6
40 6
40 6
40 8
40.5
40.5
40.9
41.2

41.4
fHjp41 . 4

4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8

493
512
507
52/
540
551
557
557
569
569
E586
561
557
553
551
557
565
543

2.2
19
2.2
1 Q

20

127

1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8

135
88
118

20
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.9

*JA1

1 Q

20
19

39
37
40

543
553
575
533
525

18
18
19

Q5

108
1 1%

300
304
299
310

-\ qy
Q7

-| 7
-i ft

116
1 ?*>

OE* /

/ n

coo

3 Q

*TIQ

1 ft
1 7

t A
41

<;pA

r;

/ 0

cnp

I
16
p n
i y

38
4.0
4.1
r4.1

*n A

1

•S1Q
<>/Q

P3.9

520
548

CNA)

1 ^n

287
283
301
304
303
305

18
18
17

CqO

*Hft

in?
138
Q2
1 ^1

cqy

Cpq

152
121

18

3 ft

/n

107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120

1 Q

/ 0

520

1T3

n*5

19

3.8

136
12?

19

552
554
555
557
5A6
545

40
39
39
39
38

101

C

17
1 5
rl 6

03 pl 4
(NA)

P7n

15 97

1A ?1
TA 78
TQ O/
i fl n /

17 68
1 A ?&
1 A OA

18 24
1 A A?
-i a T 1

1 7 Q7

i Q cn
ly.pu

iy.*cD

QS

O77

TO O£

122
111
121
118

OAK,
*io;>
oAo
2^7

91
121
92
89
109

?//
*-44
o/e
<-45

On y A
-iU.4b
n Q Qy
IV. ?4
on. no
o-i oc
^l.-c?

fHl7Q
1 oy
J.^4

oAn
P/Q

PA9
5 c-i
O-L

|7Tipy q
LiU<4j>
oy ft
^ *i^ /
oq7

1 Q oy
I?. ^4
i Q on
1 Q AO

iy.yi

2 96

^ yo
•a ^^
1 PQ
q qq
J>. JJ
q qn
q /p
q ii
07
3 .4 /
q DJL
j*fc\

q D<
J. Ao
3. 1
yT
4
3 * /•
."
4
-a x-i
J.ol
3 no
. VjJ

q QO

T
7
3 .7?
3 .77
r^r7

3*oV
Ao
q /7
.?• 70

i Q • yc
1? 45
v«on 70

y«q QO

nri-v»oi 07

rTj~r,y pn

i-iOT ,1U
p-il n n

q da

~.q 17^
PJ. ( f

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by [SI; for series that move counter to movements in general business
*.
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) current low values are indicated by [HI. Series numbers are for identification
5,
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
3
Week ended March 6.

24


bed

MARCH

BASIC DATA

1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Construction contracts, comYear and month mercial and
industrial
buildings

10. Contracts and
orders ,
plant and
equipment

(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space) (Bil. dol.)

11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)

7. New, private nonf arm
dwelling
units
started

29. New private housing
units authorized by local
building permits

(Ann. rate,
thous. )

(1957-59=100)

12. Net
change in
business
population,
operating
businesses

(Thous . )

13, New
business
incorporations

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures

(Number)

(Mil. dol.)

1961

JxLLy
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July.
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October. . . .November
December
1964
January
February
April
May
June
July
August
September .......
October. ........
November,
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

36
39
38
33
41
41

57
32
73
88
6l
69

3 57
3 66
3
3
3
3

/O
/8
66
*Sn

38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16
40.56
42 69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89

3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4 56

2 62

3.71

44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45-43

2 85

51.07
51.05
48 41
53.48
46.22
47 . 82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
[£58.88

53.20
(NA)

3.98
3.71
3.96
3 76
3.66
3.72
3 61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99

4.38
4.14
4 11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
(Hjr4.94

P4-77
(NA)

2.86
2.56
3.04
3.25

2.68
3.35
4.07
3.93

4.01
4.88

m]r5.55
p4 38

1
1
1
1
1
1

305
2S2
/ 53
381
31 Q
3?/

98 9
101 9
100 2
104 2
im A

103 8
109 1

1,287
1,418
1,551
1,656
1 651
1,558
1,584
1,454
1,712
[El, 824
1,544
1,524

111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120 0
119.3
116.5
,113.5
121.0
123 6
119.9
123 7

1,688
1,613
1 638
1,501
1,507
1,585
1,483
1,408 1,433
1,559
1,429
rl , 609

rl,434
r>l . /no

15
15
1^
16

JQ2
277
/O?
03*5

1 o£. i 2

.1 -i

1 A 1 /Q

11 Q Q3

~\ *5 #Pn

71 81

15 599
15,758
15 670
15,372
15 245
14,947
15,171
15 056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985

101 53
86.03
77 40
107.15
89.80
93.15
107.98
121 85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61

14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867

146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
IE 52. 86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17

16 250
16,018

91.69
119.29
110 67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49

99 0

1 392
1,253
1 460
1,489
1 501
1,366
1,423
1 459
1,328
1 491
1,564
1,541

+11

104 0
111 9
103 8
106.1
108 7
107 1
109 1
107 2
113.0
112 0

+12
+11
+11

+11
+11
+13
+12

117.6

LE'123.9
121 5
112.9
112.1
115.2
109 6
113 0
107.8
107 6
111 0
103 5

rl!5.8
pl!2.2

an n s

+9
...

+16

1 5 992

+17

+16

[SJ+19

16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
[317,275

(NA)

Q/ /7

72 28

84.54
107.57

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by ED; for series that move counter to movements in general business
*.
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) current low values are indicated by H. Series numbers are for identification
5,
only and do not reflect, series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




25

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
15. Business
16. Corporate 17. Ratio,
failures with profits after ' price to unit
labor cost
Year and month liabilities of taxes
$100,000 and
index, manuover
facturing
(Number per
week)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July, ,,.,.,,.,,,
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

43
36
39
42
39
38
37
UH32
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40
35
40

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

22.0
24.5

24 5

24.9
25.0
25.7

25.5
26.6
26.7
28.3

31.2

31.9
tE]32.0
P31.7

(1957-59=100)
101.4
102.0
101.6
101.5
101.7
102 3
101 3
101 7
101 8
100 9
101 1
100 4
100.7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5

100.6
100.7
101.2
101.3
101.7
103.2
102.2
101.5
101.6
102.2
101.9
102.2
103.2
103.2
102.7
103.7
103.5
103.5
103.4
103.6
103.0
102.6
r!03.5

.iH]rl05.0
r0.
!44
p!04.8

18. Profits
(before taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corporations

22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries

(Cents )

(Percent)

7.9

8.5

8.5

9.3

8 4

92

8.1

9.1

8.1

9.1

81

9.1

8.1

9.1

8.5

9.4

86

9.3

8.8

9.8

9.0

10 4

8.9

ElO 5

IEJ9.0

10 4

CNA)

plO.4

21. Change in
19. Stock
prices, 500
business incommon stocks* ventories after
valuation adjustment, all
industries
(1941-43=10)
65.44
67.79
67 26
68.00
71.08
71 74,
69 07
70 22
70.29
68 05
62 99
55 63
56.97
58.52
58 00
56.17
60.04
62.64

65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70 98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74 17
76.45
77 39
78 80
79 94
80 72
80 24
83 22
82 00

83
84
85
33

41
85
44
Q&

(Ann. rate.
bil. dol.)

+3.7
+5.6

[Ei+6.9
+6.1
+5,1
+5.4

+3.6
+3.6
+4.2
+6.4

+2 5
+3 7
+2 8
+5 7

86 12
ET'86 75
1
86 99

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( * . Current high values are indicated by [H] ; for series that move counter to movements in general business
•)
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by HD. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a% anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for March 16, 17, and 18.

26


bed

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MARCH 1965

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
31. Change in
book value,
Year and month manufacturing
and trade inventories ,
total

20. Change in
book value,
mf rs .! inventories of materials and
supplies

37. Purchased
materials ,
percent reporting higher
inventories

26. Production
matls., percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer*

32. Vendor
performance, •
percent reporting slower
deliveries*

25. Change in
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries

23. Industrial
materials
prices*

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

+2.0

+0.8
+2.9
+2 2
+0.3
+1.3
03+6 6

46
54
57
56
52
55

56
55
57
59
59
54

49
52
55
55
51
53

+0.37
+0 42
+0 01
+0 25
+0 41
+0 65

101.7
102 9
102 9
102 3
98.9
101 0

+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7

60
59
58
54
51
47
44
45
43
46
50
49

57
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51

56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48 48

+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91

102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95-4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8

+0.6

47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43

50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55

50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46

+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40

95.5
95.1
94-4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7

+4.3
+3.5
r+2.0

42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58

53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65

55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
[£74
72
70
66

+0 40
+0.57
+0 16
+1 04
+0.38
+0.81
(Hi+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1 00

P+1.3
(NA)

60
[Hj6l

65
U365

68
7?

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October.
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
JuO^r
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January.
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. .......
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June

4-3.1

+4.0
+1.9
+7.0
+6.2
+6.0
+5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1

+ 5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2

+5.1
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+ 5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+3.7
0.0
+3.5
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
+0.2
+1.0
+7.3
+0.5
r+8.7
[HJr+ll . 2
P4-8.1
(NA)

+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
-1.9
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6

+0 27
r+0 55

r+0 . 19
pfO 61

98 5
98.5
98 9
102 4
100.9
101 4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0'
IE113.2
112 5

110 6
110 7
112.8

a

*
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by (H]; for series that move counter to movements in general business
*.
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) current low values are indicated by dD. Series numbers are for identification
5,
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "etr, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for March 15, 16, and 17.




27

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MARCH 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41. Employees
in nonagricultural esYear and month tablishments

42. Total non- 43. Unemployagricultural
ment rate,
total1
employment,
labor force
survey1

40. Unemploy- 45. Average
ment rate, 1 weekly insured
married males unemployment
rate, State
programs2

46. Helpwanted advertising in
newspapers

47. Industrial
production

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(ftious . )

(Thous . )

54,061
54,206
54,220
54,330
54,597
54,723

61,230
61,291
61 , 369
61,487
61,937
61,804

7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.1
6.0

4.8
4.8
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.9

5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8

94
98
98
107
110
110

111.5
112.9
111.6
113.4
114.9
115 8

54,695
55,003
55,162
55,411
5 5 , 502
55,565
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874
55,881

61,948
62,162
62,234
62,167
62,565
62,693
62,623
63,015
63 147
63,070
62 921
63,336

58

3.7
33
36
3.7
3 5

4.7
45
4.4
3.9
38
/ o
4.2

114
116
115

115.0
116 4
117 5
118.0
118 2
118 1
119 0
119 0

55,900
56,044
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291

63.133
63,230
63,487
63,708
63,613
63,825
64,055
64,089
64,253
64,205
64,371
64,449

5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5

3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3

57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,104
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,382
58 878
r59,206

64,685
65,051
65,175
65,695
65,790
65 519
65,632
65,641
65,650
65,658
66,084
66,463

5 5
5.4
5 4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0

r59 328
Ltl3p59 560

©66 771

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July, , , , ,
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
Jnly. ,,,..,.,,,,
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

AA 7 )
fQ

5 5

5.5
5.6
5 5
5 *5
5 5
*i 7

5
*>
%
*>

6
L
ft
*j

fir/ 8
C

pi

5 .U

3 7

36
37
3 5

44
/ A

112

114
109

110
108
107
107

1 1Q 7
1 19 1

3 5
3 *5
3 5

45
L6

107

119 8

/, 7

e!07

119 /

3
3
3
3

48
4.6
44
42
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3

e!07
e0
!9
e!08

119 8
120 6
121 9
122 7
124 4
125.6
125 6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0

30
29
28
26
28
2.7
2.6
28
2.9
IEJ2 4
2.6

43
4.0
38
38
36
3.6
36
3 5
3 4
3.4
3/
3.6

116
117
118

127 7
128 2

120

130 5

118

131 3

121
124
123
126
127

131 6

137

27

3 L
©3 3

fin-Til I **>

7
7
5
4

34
3.2

3 1

o A

3

109

105
104
109
105
107
111
112

118

1 3/

1 37

129 o

1 32 Q
1 33 ft
13/0
131.2

r!35 0
r!37 5
r3 1
!8
(Hipl38 8

33

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by (H]J for series that move counter to movements in general business
*.
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45),current low values are indicated by [H], Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
3
Week ended February 27.

28



bed

MARCH

BASIC DATA

1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
50. Gross
national
Year and month product in
1954 dollars

49. Gross
national
product in
current
dollars

57. Final
sales (series
49 minus
series 21)

51. Bank
debits, all
SMSA's except New
York (224
SMSA's)

52. Personal 53. Labor
income
income in
mining,
manufacturing, and
construction

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate.
Toil, dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

450.6

522.4

518.7

462.5

536.9

531.4

2,069.6
2,061.5
2,078.9
2,142.4
2,141.5
2,156.2

420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5

108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
111.7

18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879

100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9

2,260.6
2,155.9
2,233.1
2,299.6
2,266.6
2,249.9
2,311.3
2,268.8
2,236.7
2,340.7
2,351.5
2,324.9

431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
444.1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0

112.0
113.0
114.2
115.9

18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253

100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7

2,416.2
2,345.9
2,357.2
2,472.5
2,419.2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2

454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1

117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8

20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486

100.5
100.5
100.5
100.4
100.5
•100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9

2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597.3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5

479.4
480.5
482 9
486 6
487.8
489.3
491.4
494.9
497.9
498.7
502.3
505.9

122.7
124.2
124.6
125.9
125.8
126.4

126.9
127.9
129.2
127 7
130.4
132.0

2,803.3
0p2, 845.1

r510 2
0p510 7

r!32.9
[Hjpl33.9

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January

469.1

553.4

547.3

478.3

559.0

554.0

483.0

566.6

561.2

485.4

571.8

568.2

487.9

577.4

573.7

494.8

587.2

583.0

502.0

599.0

592.6

508.0

February

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

538.7

475.1

March
April
May
June
July. ..... r t ....
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November* .
.
December
-1964
January

545.5

608.8

606.4

513.5

618.6

614.9

519.6

628.4

625.7

•[HI 522. 7

(B634.6

®628.8

112.1

115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0

120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1

54. Sales of 55. Wholesale
retail
prices except
stores
farm products
and foods

20,719

20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019
21 , 000
21,533
21,223
21,392
21,777
21,773
21,935
22,266
22,254
21,383
21 , 661
r 22, 781

r22,88l
[Hjp23,015

(1957-59=100)

101.1

101.1
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2

101.3
101.5
101 . 6
101.7
101.7

lEUpioi . 9
2

102.0

NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by [H]> for series that move counter to movements in general business
*.
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) current low values are indicated by H. Series numbers are for identification
5,
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




s

Week ended March 16.

29

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures,
Year and month new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing

68. Labor cost 64, Book value
per dollar of of manufac!
real corporate turers inventories
GNP

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(Bil. dol.)

65. Book value 66. Consumer
of manufacinstallment
turers1 inven- debt
tories of finished goods

(Bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*

(Percent)

1961

July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Ausust
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June

34.70
35.40

35.70
36.95

99.4
99.0
98 8
99.8
99.8

103.8
102.3

102.9

38 35

37.95

36.95

103 4

38.05

40.00
41.20

42 55

43.50

100.1
100 2

103 5

99.6
100.1
99.5
100.1

103.2

99.7
99.6
99 i
98.9
98.9
97.9
98 8
99 5
99 1
98.6
99.0
98.6
97.9
97.9
98,4
97.6
97.6
97.7

104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6

104 2
104 8

97.8

45.65
0347.75

ra48.85

97.5
98.2
98 6
r97.9
r96.5
r97 2
p97 1

53.6
53 9
53.9
54 3
54.7
55.1

18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8

41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,4A2
42,774

55 4
55 7

56 1
56 4
56 3
56 9
57 0
57.3
57-4
57.6
57.8

19.0
19.1
19 1
19.2
19.3
19 4
19.5
19 5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8

42 , 960
43,220
43 532
44,017
44, 437
44,826
45,200
45 588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174

57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1

19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2

47 , 659
48 , 1 54
48 , 631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51 , 069
51 , 410
51,941
52,324
52,784

60.0
60 1
60 3
60 5
60 5
60 4
60.5
60 8
61 0
61 8
62 4
r62 9

21.2
21 4
21 4
21 6
21 6
21 5
21.6
21 6
21 6
21 8
21 9
r22 2

56 o

[EiOO.4

JilJy. . . , , r , T . . . .

August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

99.1
98.5
99.1
98.9
99.0
98.4

105 2

[R]pl06.3

[H]p63 2

nrt)22 3

(NA)

(NA)

4.99
4.96

4.98
5.01

4 99

SJ5.02

5.00
5.01
5.01
5.00

53,212

*n 791
54 315

/ QQ

54 727
^S 220

/ QQ

55 590
56 073
56 508

/ gg

<57 021
^7 /TL

57,732
58,292

5 00

Gt'58,962

(NA)

ra49.65

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by <E|; for series that move counter to movements in general business
*.
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) current low values are indicated by tEl. Series numbers are for identification
5,
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA11, not available.

30




bed

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
83. Federal
cash receipts
from public

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.;

Year and month

82. Federal
cash payments
to public

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

84. Federal
cash surplus
(+), or
deficit (-)

^
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.;

95. Surplus
( ) or
+,
deficit ( )
-,
Federal income
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Mil. dol.)

91. Defense
Department
obligations ,
total

92. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December

97,7
112 7
104.1
109.8
106 5
104 3

91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7

-6.5
-11 7
-4.9
-10.3
-5 2
-2 6

115 1
108 8
107.4
110 1
106 8
108 9
116.3
111 6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2

101 7
101.3
98.1
107 8
109 9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0

-13 4
-7.5
-9 3
-2 3
+3 1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2

115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8
110.2
125.7
118.0
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7

108.6
110.6
108.9
, 110.2
112.2
111.9
114.9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5

-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
-10.8
-3.3
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9
-4.2

r!25.6
119.0
120.8
122.3
113.7
123.4
122.8
118.2
122.7
117.8
111.0
135.5

114.9
121.4
116.4
125.8
107.2
114.9
114.1
110.7
113.7
112.8
114.3
115.7

r-10.7
+2.4
-4.4
+3.5
-6.5
-8.5
-8.7
-7.5
-9.0
-5.0
+3.3
-19.8

118.0
121.7

110.8
118.3

-7.2
-3.4

-3 4
-2.6

1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773

3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,653

2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281

1,758
1,228
1,410
1,791
1,039
1,311
1,657
1,395
1,040
1,675
1,787
1,205

4,434
4,086
4,421
4,477
3,999
4,082
4,517
4,385
3,892
4,535
4,920
4,140

3,073
2,135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984

1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273

4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371

2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079

1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494

4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325

2,149
2,689
1,598
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883

4,278
(NA)

1,830
(NA)

1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

-4.4
-4 6

-2.9
-4.5

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December. . . . .
...

-4.8
-1.0
-0.7
+0.6

16
94

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

-2.4
-7.8
-5.2

803
1,141

889
p-5.1

1,089
1,870

1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

966
(NA)

NOTE: Series a?e seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.




31

BASIC DATA

MARCH 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Year and month

85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply

93. Free
99. New
orders , dereserves*
fense products

(Bil. dol.)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December.
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August ..........

September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July. ...........
August
September. . . .
...

October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

(Mil. dol.)

2.11
1.96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1.82

+530
+537
+ 547

1.99
2.05
2.11

+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473

98. Change iji
money supply
and time deposits

(Ann. rate,
percent )

(Ann. rate,
percent)

+3.36

+ 5.40
+6.00
+6.96
+6.36
+8.52
+ 5.28

+268

0.00
+1.68
+2.52
+3.24
-2.40
+0.84
-0.84
-0.84
-1.68
+4.08
+ 5.76
+4.92

+6.84
+10.92
+10.92
+7.68
+1.56
+6.12
+4.56
+4.08
+4.56
+9.52
+10.44
+11.40

1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1
1.92
1.97
1.48

+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209

+3.24
+3.24
+4.08
+2.40
+3.24
+4.80
+6.36
+1.56
+3.12
+5.52
+9.48
-2.40

+8.28
+8.28
+9.12
+ 5.76
+5.76
+7.56
+8.52
+7.92
+6.48
+8.76
+13.80
+4.08

2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
rl.87

+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168

+4 68

+Q Q6
+ 5 AO
+L LL

r2.33
p2.39

r+103

2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07

1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53
2.89
2.09
2.42

+442
+517
+419

+32

0.00
+2.52
+5.04
+3.36
+6.60

0
+3
+2
0

00
12
28
00

+8 52
+8 52
+3.84
+6 12
+4.56
+3 84
+2.28
+3 00
p-5 28

•4- L LL
•4-1 L L
+9 72
+8 76
+7.44
+8 16
+8.64
+10 68
+7.20

110. Total
private
borrowing

111. Corporate 112. Change in
gross savings business loans

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
mil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

+2.18
39 916

33,176

+1.00

+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72

42 784

35,904

/ 3 / 80

36 664

cq -230

37 780

/ft Q7?

39 040

/ft 5^6

40 , 296

44,628

39 44-4

55,916

39 008

57,348

40 012

58,772

3Q 056

51 78 /

A3 1 56

+3 48
+1 42

A*7 Q1 O

/ / 1 70

-*•/ 25

+2.90

+1.51
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
+1.43
+1 42
+1.85
+2 40
+2 35
+1.74
+1 97
+2 04
+2 08
+4 66
+5 22
+5 78
+1 7Q
+ 3 17

. .
.

55 860

4,4
478

...
(~n n^P

43 604

+3 &9
+4 31
+4.78
+4 28
+1.43
+0 32
+8 62

+11 76

TM-1 9 ?5

m-6 2/

+1 -a i i

1-37

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" not available.
1

Average for bi-weekly period ended March 10.

32



bed

BASIC DATA

MARCH 1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
113. Change in 1 4 treasury
1.
bill rate*
consumer inYear and month stallment debt

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1961
July. ,,,.,..,..,
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May..
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July. ...... ....
August
September . . . .
...
October
November
December
1965
January. *
February
March
April
May
June

+0.10
+1.01
+0.78
+2.03

+2,65
+3.98
+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82

(Percent)

115. Treasury
bond yields*

(Percent)

2.27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62

3-90
4.00

2.75
2.75

4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90

2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86

116. Corporate 117. Municipal 118. Mortgage
bond yields*
bond yields*
yields*

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

86. Exports
excluding
military aid
shipments,
total

(Mil. dol.)

4.74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4.48
4.56

3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3.41
3.47

5.68
5.68
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.69

1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8

3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87

4.55
4.54
4.42
4.31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28

3.34
3.21
3.H
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07

5.69
5.68
5.65
5.64
5.60
5.59
5.58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53

1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
1,795.4
1,761.7
1,835.6
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838.7

4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4-35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4.36
4.42
4.49

3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27

5.52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45

985.7
2,123.6
1,957.8
1,913.7
1,895.2
1,803.1
1,840.8
1,922.1
1,958.2
1,967.5
1,965.6
2,090.8

4.02

3.98
3.98
4.06

4.02

+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52

2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00

3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52

3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14

+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+5.80
+ 5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72

3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86

4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14

4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49
4.49
4.47
4.47

3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3.18
3.13

- 5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45

2,042.9
2,046.2
2,074.0
2,061.1
2,061.8
2,034.2
2,122.9
2,108.8
2,235.3
2,154.8
2,196.8
2,430.4

+8.04

3.83
3.93

4.14
4.16

4.44
4.44

3.06
3.09

5.45
5.45

1,217.3

(NA)

(MA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.




33

TABLE

BASIC DATA

MARCH

1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
88. Merchan87. General
imports, total dise trade
balance
Year and month
(series 86
minus series
87)
(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

89. Excess,
receipts (+)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.)

81 . Consumer
prices

(1957-59=
100)

94. Construction contracts, value

(1957-59=
100)

96. Manufacturers ' unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations ,
manufacturing

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1961

July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December,
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

October
November

December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

1 , 379 . 3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,3H.5

+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3

1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1 , 404 . 1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1 , 471 . 4
1,312.1
1,424 9
1,376.5

+341.8
+489.5
+330.3
+430 . 4
+357 6
+484 9
+401 . 7
+356.6
+436 5
+230.7
+299 7
+462 2

1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.8
1,414.6
1,416.3
1,430.9
1 , 449 . 5
1,497.3
1,443.3
1,455.4
1,465.5
1 , 479 . 8

-114.2
+613 2
+473 0
+499 1
+478 9
+372.2
+391 3
+424.8
+514.9
+512 1
+500 1
+611.0

1,434.4
1,460.3
1,519.5
1,540.6
1,539.4
1,518.4
1,578.1
1,574.9
1,546.4
1,547.7
1,697.7
1,642.2

+608.5
+585.9
+554.5
+520.5
+522.^
+515.8
+544.8
+533.9
+688.9
+607 . 1
+499 . 1
+788.2

1,206.4

+10.9
(NA)

(NA)

-700

-1,231

-748
-440
-334
-681

1 062
-1 295

-153
-134

-98

-672
-676

1 317

104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5

110
116
103
114
116
119

43 43
43 85
43.86
44 11
44 52
45.17

7 66

104.7
104.9
105.1
105 3
10 5 L
105 4
105 3
105.5
105 9
105 8
105 8
10S 9

115
119
131
121

45
46
45
45

7 8?

120
117
118
11?
117

u ^8

106 1
106 1
106 2
106 3
106 4
106 7
106 9
107 1
106 9
107 0
107.2
107.7

121
i ?n
118

107.8
107.7
107 8
108 0
108 1
108 1
108,1
108.2
108 3
108 4
108 6
108 9

80
42
75
41

7 63

1 } Q^

121

1 ?£

l pc

11J
l ?*;
126
1 "32
128
146
144
148

7- 77

LL H

43 73
y q qn

7 QQ

J^ *>&
/ 1> 18
ii fiQ

a /ev

/ ^ DA
/ c 7;

* *"

46 68

8 yA

in cq
4 f OJ
/7 ££

• **

47 28

Q fS7

! A. 17 1

/A 7n
/,7 07
/ 7 17

10 15
***

47 08
46 68

11 02

147
143
140
138
138

47
47
47
48

07
64
80
84

11 78
* **

1 18
140
121
131
136
I/?

60 O/

1 "3 1 L

/,'Q 22

51 30
51.37
62 1 /
^3 1 1
CQ

r 5 00
!

/I

154

r*n Q6

109 o

1 37

(NA)

(NA)

r S/ 1 y
n^/ 7S

Dl5 11

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" not available.

34




bed

BASIC DATA

MARCH 7965

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
47. United
States,
industrial
Year and month production

(1957-59=
100)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

123. Canada, 122. United
industrial
Kingdom,
industrial
production
production

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59100)

121. OECD,1

European
countries,
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)

125. Vest
Germany,
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

126, France, 127. Italy,
industrial
industrial
production
production

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

128. Japan,
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

112
113
112
113
115
116

109
111
112
112
114
114

113
111
110
109
109
109

120
119
120
121
122
123

122
121
124
123
124
128

118
118
119
119
119
122

138
137
140
145
149
148

172
172
175
176
177

115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119

113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120

108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110

122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127

126
129
125
128
129
130
130 '131
132
132
133
132

122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126

149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160

182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178

120
121
122
123
124.
126
126
125
126
126
126
127

120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131

110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121

127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
135
136
136

129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139

127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138

158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170

179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217

128

133
134
133
135
132
133
133
135
135
135
139
pi 40

123
1?3
123
124
123
123
122
123
r!23
r!27
127
p!28

139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
r4
!0
142
141
pi 42

142
144
145
140
150
143
147
145
145
150
148
148

140
139
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
141
140
138

172
169
173
168
166
164
166
156
163
162
(NA)

219
224
224
226
229
234
234
234
239
242
237
239

(NA)

(NA)

(MA)

p!56
(NA)

p!38
(NA)

128

129
130
131
132
133
134
134
131
1 35
r!38

1 38
p!39

169

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




35




Section TWO

charts and tables

DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS9 FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF

COMPONENTS

Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—-36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New order$^400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




37

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MARCH IMS bed

DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates—
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Nov.
196^

Dec.
1964

Jan.
1965

*..

4 months
„
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

8
1
1

!

6

Jul^r
1953

4
1

12
1

1

7
1

"4
1

7
1
3
1

July
1957

May
1960

i
I
7

3
7

23
30

23
30

1
1
4
10
23
43

1
1
4
4
16
25

22
"l

14
2
1
3
2
1

23
0

23
0

1

2

1

1
1
**2

1
3

1
2
2
1

2
2

i

Nov.
1948

Feb.
1965

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

i

8 months or more
7 months
6 months

Business cycle peak

Current expansion

2
2

*18
0

"3
19
16

2

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
.
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

3
!
•
!
i

1
1
9
11
82

2
9
11
82

1
10
11
91

1
1
9
11
82

3d month before business cycle peak
Number of .months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Aug.
1948

Apr.
1953

Apr.
1957

Feb.
1960

"4
1
2

"i
11
9

3
3
11
27

2
3
2
2

"5
11
45

11
27

6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948

Jan.
1953

Jan.
1957

Nov.
1959

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

3
4

11
1

1

4
1
*1S

0

"*2
2
3
1
"4
19
21

2

20

"i
1

"i
23
0

12
1

6
1

i

"i
2

2
1
3
2
1
23
4

"2
2
1
!8
l
6

2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
2
19
16

17
1
1
1

"i
i
i
23
4

4
4
4
2
4
1
2
2
23
9

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months . .
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

1
2

1

1

1

"i

"4

1

1

2
1

"i
4
4
11
36

4
4
11
36

2
3
3
H
27

'*4

3
6
11
55

"i
5
11
45

2
2
3
6
11
55

2
».•
5
3
11
27

2
3
11
27

NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution,
X
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.

38




bed

MARCH 1965




ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Jil5) (If.)

CHART

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MARCH 7965

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT- Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

T"T




TJ

T

"

41. Employees icf nonagr. establishments--30 indus.
|i

(6-rn'o. s p a n —

1-mo. spjn —)

j

I

Percent

m
so

D47. Industrial prLducfion-24 indys.

I

(6-nio. spanij—;
f

1-mp. spa)n —)

'». Wholesale priices, mfrdj goodls-23 Indus;
(6-nio. spdn;[-~

1-mo. sp<|n •_•-)_ J

' i^ ir^

D! 4. Sales of retlil stores -24 types of stores
(9-mlo. span||— {

1-mb. span ---)

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MARCH 1965

CHART

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes

sales, i all mfr*.-800 tos

i

! r!IT[

D61. New plant | and equipment expend.-U7-22 iiidus




Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (Jan. 1965)
D48 (Dec. 1964)
061 (Feb. 1965)

Actual
4th Q 1963 - 4th Q 1964
1st Q 1963 - 1st Q 1964
3rd Q 1964 - 4th Q 1964

Anticipated
2ndQ 1964- 2nd Q 1965
1st Q 1964- IstQ 1965
1st Q 1965 - 2nd Q 1965

3 I !

41

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MARCH 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators

Year and
month

1-month
span
1961
JVL) Y ...... t ....
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
JoLy
August

September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)

Dl. Average worlcweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

9-month
span

3-quarter
span

1-quarter
span

61.9
64-3
40.5
92.9
71.4
23.8

95.2
90.5
64.3
92.9
92.9
100.0

36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3

81.9
83.3
' 79.2
86.1
76.4
80.6

21.4
61.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31.0
38.1
54-8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7

85.7
83.3
50.0
23.8
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0

63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2

77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4

76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3

61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8

63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5

88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8

4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
r92.9

85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
r88.1
r76.2
p83.3

55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58,3
55.6
68.1

76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
r83.3
r75.0
P63.9

r57.1
p66.7

Dll. Newly approved
c apital appropriations ,
NICE (17 industries)

76

71

*47

*65

65

41

*32

*82

*82

53

*59

74

47

53

*59

53

59

*65

*53

71

47

71

'68

rS2

r53

p82

P29

r52.8
P43.1

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d
quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5
identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

42




bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MARCH 1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(around 700
corporations )

Year and
month

1-quarter
span

D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
(SO industries)1
1-month
span

9-month
span

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span

9-month
span

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
1-month
span

9-month
span

1961
July

58

Ausust
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January

*56

54
47

*48
*56

50
59

*56
*55

57

February

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

*60
*57
*56

42.5
81.2
40.0
46.9
87.5
55.0

76.2
73.7
71.2
67.5
70.0
62.5

25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4

" 17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
13.7
67.5
93.7
95.0

97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
92.2

81.8

100.0
95.7
87.2
97.9
91.5
80.9

38.5
46.2
57.7
34-6
15.4
69.2

53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2

46.8
55.3
51.1
80.9
74.5
27.7

53.8
46.2
46.2 .
42.3
42.3
46.2
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8

38.5
30.8
30.8
38.5
23.1
15.4
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5

42.6
83.0
38.3
51.1
42.6
19.1
66.0
55.3
42.6
39.4
69.1
40.4

83.0
57.4
51.1
34.0
48.9
4' 7
4.
40.4
25.5
25.5
42.6
79.8
59.6

95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4

61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7

61.5
69.2
61.5
69.?
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9

23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
' 48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
44.7
61.7
31.9
34.0

38.3
68.1
74.5
57.4
63.8
87.2
48.9
34.0
85.1
59.6
57.4
74.5

83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3

53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5

61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
2
76.9

85.1
12.8
66.0
75.5
51.1
51.1
59.6
57.4
55.3
31.9
34.0
78.7

69.1
70.2
69.1
76.6
87.2
70.2
55.3
87.2
51.1
68.1

53.8
30.8
3
69.2

27.7
57.4

„.

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no adjustment and D34 which is adjusted
only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA.", not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 82 components, July 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on
79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
3

Average for March 15, 16, and 17.




43

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MARCH 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and
month.

D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(30 industries)
1-month
span

6-month
span

D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)

1-month
span

6-month
span

D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)

1-month
span

9-month
span

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing
industries )

1-month
span

6-month
span

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December

71.7
76.7
56.7
80.0
81.7
68.3

81.7
88.3
83.3
78.3
88.3
83.3

77.1
72.9
54.2
87.5
83.3
75.0

95.8
91.7
91.7
87.5
87.5
95.8

60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4

87.5
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6

52.2
56.5
58.7
41.3
43.5
54.3

39.1
43.5
52.2
50.0
54.3
56.5

65.0
75.0
75.0
86.7
60.0
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
r48.3
r43.3

86.7
88.3
81.7
78,3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0

25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
-35.4

83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5

58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7

87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3

67.4
52.2
58.7
60.9
47.8
41.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4

60.9
63.0
58.7
54.3
58.7
43.5
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1

65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0

60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3

79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1

83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3

50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1

70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1

41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
73.9
63.0
67.4

32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
76.1
78,3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6

53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
78.3

75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
r86.7
80.0
p86.7

58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
79.2
68.8
43.8
66.7
r70.8
r79.2

91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5
87.5
81.2
68.8
87.5
79.2
p85.4

43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
37.5
64.6
62.5
r62.5

79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
r68.8
r83.3
P70.8

63.0
67.4
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
60.9
r52.2
60.9

69.6
69.6
69.6
54.3
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
r67.4
P73.9

1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

•

1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. ....,..,
September
October
November
December

1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

r71.7
P78.3

r72.9
p77.1

r52.1
P58.3

r63.0
P58.7

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span.
Seasonally
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preadjusted components are used.
Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown.
liminary; and "NA", not available.




bed

MARCH

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D36. New orders, durable
manufactures
(400 companies)

Year and
month

4-quarter span
Actual

Anticipated

D48. Freight car load ings
(19 manufactured commodity
groups )

D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)

4-quarter span

D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(BOO companies)

4-quarter span

1-quarter span

Anticipated

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

Actual

Anticipated

1961
56.2

August
September
October.
November .
December. ......
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

75.0

*88

*76

*84

5?'.9

94.*7

r-68

"76

'so

74

74

63 ".2

89.*5

-96

72

74

71

70

42*.i

63!4

-67

74

*82

*76

*76

63^2

63.2

+29

*76

"80

77

*76

73.7

78!9

+39

74

'so

'?6

*76

57.9

68.*4

+44

*82

'84

82

80

78.9

78*. 9

'si.

*85

*82

*84

(NA)

73.7

-13

*83

'87

*84

*84

68.4

+34

82

*86

'si

*84

94.7

+68

*87

84

89.5

r+16

88

68 '8
.

+62

'so

75.0

96^9

89 '.5

50.0

84.4

63.'2

50.0

62*. 5

82

75.0

71.9

*78

71.9

71.9

*86

75.0

+125

'si

50.0

65*6

89 '5
.

68*.S

40.6

73.7

65^6

4. 9
6'

*86

63.8

65*.6

82

62.5

68^8

*88

65^6

65.6

82

62.5

5. 4
9'

July

*85

'

r^35

1964
January

February
March
April
May
June
,
July
August. . . . .
....
September.
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

r65.6
81 \2

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in
the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are^used
for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.




45

TABLE
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES
D I. Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
1-month spans

9—month spans

1964

1965

1965

1964

21 industry components

Percent rising
All manufacturing industries.

5 88 40 67 43 26 55 71 14 76 64 93 57 67
-

+

-

O

O

+

-

+

-

o o - +
+

_

o

-

4-

_

o

O

-

-

+

+

52 64 67 74 86 50 52 74 33 86 74

76 83

o

+

-f

0

4-

- o

4-

-

4-

DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment.
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.

44-

+ - + - - + o + - + o o +
+ - + - - + +
4-

0

-

4-

+

O

•*•
+
o
o
+
o

4-

4- o 4- - - 4- o
+ - + - + - +
+ - o -f + + o
+

+

+

-

Q

+

+

o
+
+
o
o
+
+
+

444444-

en
73
m
CO

4444+
4-

444444+
4-

NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and allied products...
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products.
Petroleum and coal products...
Rubber products
Leather and leather products..

o

- - + 0

o o
- +
O
O

44-

O

- o

0

O

4O +
4- - +
4-4-44-4-44- 4+ - +
- 4- - 4 - 4 4- - +
+
- +

O

444O
4444-

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by source agency before the direction of change is determined.




90
O

Os
Pi

o-

TABLE

It

DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued

B

a.

D6. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
1-month spans

9-month spans

1964

1965

1964

so
O

1965

36 industry components

8

Percent rising
AH durable goods industries.
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products:
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products.
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
;
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*.
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*...
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and W
Communication equipment
Electronic components.'
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total

56 44 58 61 44 50 64 40 54 58 56

-

I
-53 43

69 58 83 78 76 83 81 75 72 58 64 83 75 64

- + -

- + +
+
+ + - + _ _
- + -• + - + - - +
+ + - + + + -

+ +
+

+ +

+

+

+ +
+ +
+ +
+
+

+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+
-

+
+

+
+

+
+

+

+
+

+
-

o + - + -f
o

+
-

+ +
- +
- +
+
+

+ +
+ +
+
+
- +
+ - + - + +
+ +
+ - + + +
+
+

+ +
- +
- +
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
*

+

+

+
+
+

+

+

-

+ + + - +

+ - - + o
+ - +
- + +

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+ + +
+
+
+ o
- +

+
+
+
+
+
-

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
-

- - o
+ + +
+ + +
+

+

-f

+ + +
+ + +
+
+
-

+
•*•
+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

+ - -

+
o

- - + + + + + + +
+ - + + +

n
-1 +

+
+

+ » rising; o « unchanged; - * falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.



S
m
cn
m
CO

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MARCH 1965

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bed

TABLE

O*

8.

DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
D23. Index of Industrial Materials Prices
1-month sp ans

9-month spans

Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (lb .
)
Lead scrap (lb .)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (lb. )

V,
4
.

,
,

4
.
44-

Zinc (lb. )
Burlap (yd )
Cotton (lb ) 15-mazOcet average
Print cloth (yd )9 average
Wool tops (lb. )

44
.

^
Q

4
.
4
.

4
.
_

44
.

4
.
4+

+

44
.

4
.

4
.
+

+
4
.

4
.

4
.

1

4.
4-

4
.

4
.
4
.
4
.

4-

+

—

—

—
4
.

4
.

4-

O

4
.
4
.

4.

+

J

+

4-

4
.

+

—

4.4.4.4,4.4.4.4,4.4.4.
4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4^4.4.4.

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4
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Jul-^ug

Dec-Jan
Jan-Feb
Feb-Mar
Mar^Apr

13 industrial materials components

Dec-Jan
Jan-Feb
Feb-Mar1

19 65

Jun-Mar lJul-^Apr
Aug^May
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4

- +

4
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+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
1

Average for March 15, 16, and 17.




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TABLE
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
D41. Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
1-month spans

6-month spans

Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments

4-

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ANALYTICAL MEASURES

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i

I

+

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i

£

UJ i

* g
O Q

o +

+ I 0 o

+ I ++

+ 1 1 1
CV O

Z

+ + + , +

I O

l
!

<[

! 4 O + + o

I

o + O

4 o

* 5
2 2

I + + I I +

+ o

I

+ + + +

v>

1 4 4 0 1

0 + + +

O 2

/^

1 4 1 0 4

1 0 1 1 4 0

I +

1

+ +

44+140

I + + +

i

i + + o

+ +I+

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t +

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+ + \ o +
+ 1 + 0 +

bcc/

Section THREE

charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES

Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
SPECIFIC CYCLES

Current expansions in selected series compared with earlier
expansions in these series
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER EXPANSIONS




Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
Percent of specific peak levels
Percent change from specific trough levels

55

CHART

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MARCH 1965

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES

Percent

PERIOD COVERED

Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
July 1953to Feb. 1959{Referencetrough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957to Oct. 1962 (Referencetrough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Percent
-»

Reference trough dates

17. Ratio, price
to unit labor
cost, mfg.

24. New orders, mach.
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

- 90

-1 80

-12-6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48

Months from reference troughs

+54

-12-6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54

Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
^Reference peak level. •Indicates the point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.

56



bed

MARCH

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

1965

CHART

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)

Reference trough dotes

July 1953 to Feb. 1959 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)

41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

Percent
49. GNP in current dollars

135
130
125
120
CM

115 -i

110
105

100*

95

-1 85
-12 -6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54

Months from reference troughs

-12 -6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54

Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
^Reference peak level.
•Indicates the point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.




57

CHART

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MARCH 7965

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Percent

Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
July 1953to Feb. 1959 (Referencetrough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957toOct. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I I I I I I ! I I II M I I I I I I I I [ I I I I I IM I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II

•

Percent

62. Labor cost

-i 115

per unit of output, mfg.

Reference trough dates

- 110

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

- 105 -i

64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
67. Bank rates on
short-term business loans

J

-1 90

90

M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 m11 i
-12-6

0

+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs

-12-6

0

+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cvcle
y
in a given distance; scale 1-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
^Reference peak level. •Indicates the point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. *l_atest data anticipated.

58



bed

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MARCH 1965

CHART

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES

Percent

PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of--

1949

1958

1954

-Specific trough dates

1961

23. Industrial

Percent

200
190
180
170
160

materials prices

- S p e c i f i c trough dates

17. Ratio, price to

150

unit labor cost, mfg.

140
-i 115

130
120

110

110

100*
105
24. New orders,mach.
and equip, indus.

260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150

19. Stock prices,
500

common stocks

210
200
190
180
170

i160
so
140
130

Months from specific troughs

110

100*

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60

120

110

+6

130

120

0

140

100*

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

Months from specific

+42

+48

+54

+60

troughs

See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8. Variou;
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
^Specific trough level.




59

CHART

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MARCH 7965

bed

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued

iirTT nTT nn nin niM Hni

r

PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of1949
1954

i 'i i

i

r

-—Specific trough dates

1958
1961

Percent
-Specific trough dates

n 120
43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent unemployed, inverted) v

115
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

110 ^

105

J

Percent

150
145
140

47. Industrial production

100

150

135

145
140

49. GNP in current dollars

135

130

130

125

125 2

120

120

115

115

110

110

105

105

100

100*

i|_l_n 1 1 1 L
0

+6

+12+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from specific troughs

+48

+54

+60

0

+6

+12+18

+24

+30

+36 +42

+48

+54

+60

Months from specific troughs

See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8. Various
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level. iLines represent actual data rather than percentages of specific trough levels,

60




j

bed

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MARCH 7965

CHART

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued

Percent
PERIOD COVERED

Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of--

_

.1949
.1954

-*

Specific trough dates

1958
— 1961

I 125

Percent
-Specific trough dates

62. Labor cost per
unit of output, mfg.

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

160

120

115

150
140

110

130
120
110

105

100'

100 y

64. Book value of
mfrs.' inventories

150
145
140

67. Bank rates on short-term
business loans

140

135
130

+42 +48

+54 +60

105

100*

+36

110

105

+24 +30

115

110

Months from specific troughs

120

115

+12+18

125

120

+6

130

125

0

135

100 *

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs

See appendix 8 for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8. Various
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
* Specific trough level. *Latest data anticipated.




61

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MARCH 7965

bed

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Month
after
reference
trough1

Selected series

Percent of reference peak: prior to reference expansion beginning in-

Feb.
1961

Apr.
195S

1954

Oct.
14
99

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers , manufacturing
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
(inverted)
„
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space2
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
(inverted)
*
16. Corporate profits after taxes ( ) .
Q,
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
....
....
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits, private
housing

48
47

103.5
105.4

101.8
111.8

97.0
80.1

100.8
86.0

107.3
186.0

75.8
63.4

78.8
36.1

96.6
29.2

(NA)
47.1

47

169*0

109.8

57.3

91.7

113.0

84.2

31.3

34.4

21.9

4,8
48

138.5
113.3

122.5
125.5

109.7
101.8

124.1
111.7

340.2
240.5

108.6
73.2

31.8
25.9

114.3
144.4

185.7
281.2

47

134.9

122.1

106.1

135.6

477.7

49.0

32.0

125.6

48.6

112.5

134.2

147.4

111.2

48.8

69.8

98.1

111.8

77.9

48
45

84.1
140,3

45.4
108.4

69.3
87.2

66.2
92.6

134.2
190.7

351.8
66.2

57.3
(NA)

125.9
92.3

19.5
94.0

4.8
4,8

104.0
157.1
106.3

100.8
140.3
94.7

99.3
196.4

(NA)

100.1

95.2
156.8
74.5

51.3
110.3

(NA)
60.1
102.8

(NA)
79.8
50.3

(NA)
221.0
78.8

125.7
69.6

48

130.6

130.5

126.6

128.0

(SA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

4.8

121.3

127.2

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

4,8

109.5-

104.5

101.5'

111.1

124.7

95.1

71.2

94.1

85.6

48
48
45
45

-1.4
115.5
121,7
114.1
138.5
123.9
115.4

-4.8
102.0
118.5
105.9
130.0
125.4
119.6

-f-0.7
131.4
138.1
124.5
143.1
135.6
126.0

+11.0

48
48

+0.2
126.3
125.9
118.2
145.9
126.9
125.6

'-11.7
106.0
82.9
100.9
70.8
85.1
94.7

(NA)
69.5
80.9
98.7
68.4
77.1
78.4

(NA)
107.8
111.6
113.2
122.8
117.6
111.8

(NA)
111.3
(NA)
(NA)
106.1
(NA)

48

100.7

101.1

109.5

108.8

93.4

73.0

86.8

67.1

45
51

131.5
136.8

94.6
101.6

107.9
106.7

129.5
123.4

(NA)
(NA)

64.7
81,1

32.0

a.A

100.2
112.2

54.8
61.7

48

96.8

100.6

114.6

122.6

85.0

80.3

88.7

74.4

47
47

116.4
145.0

107.1
132.9

111.3
150.3

156.3
261.0

(NA)
123.9

94.0
121.0

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

45

93.5

103.1

111.8

141.7

(NA)

53.9

90.7

93.9

79.8

(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establisn... J
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total
(inverted)3
.]
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP In 1954 dollars (Q)
51. Bank debits outside NIC
52. Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm
products and foods

159.1
152.5
(NA)
136.4
160.6
120.4

109,4

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61, Business expenditures, new plant
and equipment ( )
Q:
a. Actual
b. Anticipated4.*
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)

t

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19. 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated ±n the 1st column (month after reference trough; is divided by the value for
the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 16,
49, 50, 61, and 6 ) For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3
7.
months centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions
except those beginning in March 1933 and June 1938, the peak had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the
month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA Not available.
^ased on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
2
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
M5asures are differences from the reference peak levels,
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.

62




bed «*««"»«

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Selected series

Month
after
reference
trough1

Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in—

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

Ju3y
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1 Average workweek of production
.
workers, manufacturing
2. Accession rate, manufacturing......
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
(inverted)
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space2
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
(inverted).
16. Corporate profits after taxes ( ) .
Q.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits, private
housing

47

+5.1
-2.5

+23.0

-0.8
+11.4

47

+92.9

+90.2

+47.9
48

+13.6

47

+5.2

+12.4

+1.5
-3.1

+23.0
+108.2

+54.9

-13.3

+36.7

+127.8

+38.8
+29.4

+22.4

+43.3

-13.0

-20.3

+44.8

+55.3

+9.5

47

+21.0

+40.6

48
45

-14.0

-39.6

+62.6

+43.3

+4.8

-19.7
-50.6

+5.7
+36.1

+309.8

+128.1

-55.9

+11.1

+592.7

+465.9
+156.0

+465.5
+384.6

-68.2
-75.1

+2.0
+45.8

+163.1
+187.2

+57.1

(NA)

+309.3

-63.2

+80.9

+78.5

+24.9

+6.4

-43.3

-11.9

-5.5

+50.9

+7.7

-27.3
+2.4

-43.5
+18.4

+82.5

+326.2

(NA)

-37.7
(NA)

+39.6

(NA)

+15.4
(NA)

(NA)
-39.1
-48.4

(NA)

(NA)

+190.4
+147.6

+112.2

-6.0

+70.0
+66.3

48
48
48

+6.1

+6.5

+39.5

+60.7

+11.5

+9.0

48

+37.8

+47.8

48

+25.1

+25.1

48

+11.6

48
48
45
45
48
48
48

+28.1

+17.3

+28.0
+25.7
+20.4

+1.6

+10.3

+71.4

+1,1

-3.5

+55.2

+50.8

+0.1

-0.8

(NA)
-18.4
+63.1

+35.9

+45.9

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

-7.2

-11.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

+8.8

+5.1

+17.1

+39.2

+1.9

+1.8

+34.0
+26.6
+20.4
+42.5
+25.7

+34.4
+24.8

-1.3
+12.2

(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establish..,.
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total
(inverted)3
4 . Industrial production
7
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1 5 dollars (Q)
94
51. Bank debits outside NYC
52. Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm
products and foods

48

+18.7
+42.9
+24.3

+20.8

+9.1

+4.8

+39.1

-25.9

+8.3

+24.2

+19.8

+13.7

+132.9

+119.8
+64.4

(NA)
-26.
-19,

+62.9
+30.7
+29.9
+36.9
+40.5

+41.7
+26.0

+63.3
+80.3
+47.6

+85.6
+73.0
+80.0

-3.5
-37,
-23,
-21.6

(NA)
+31.3
+U.3
+13.6
+26.7
+17.5
+11.8

+17.3

+43.6
+42.8
+26.3
+49.0

+29.0

-21.5

-4.9

+73.1
(NA)

+40.1

(NA)

+16.7

+6.0

NHER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
and equipment ( )
Q:
a. Actual..
b. Anticipated4
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)

45
51

+41.1

+17.7

+54.2

(NA)
(NA)

+276.9
+372.6

-52.9

+26.5

+13.0
+11.7

+61.8

+46.7

-63.6

+43.6
+60.8

+59.5
+79.6

48

-5.2

-5.3

+8.5

+19.2

+18.2

+15.9

-18.5

-13.7

-17.3

47
47

+17.7

+11.1
+31.8

+67.4
+108.5

(NA)

+45.3

+32.9

+58.7
+153.1

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

45

+0.6

+19.4

+17.1

+41.1

(NA)

-5.8

+7.0

-25.9

+40.3

+19.0

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19. 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 6 ) the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for
6,
the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series
16, 49, 50, 61, and 6 )
7.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 5 ) the average of
1,
the 3 months centered on the reference trough month is used as the base.
See MCD footnote to appendix C.
For all earlier expansions except those beginning in March 1 3 and June 1 3 , the peak had been passed and a reference contraction was underway
93
98
by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA Not available.
^ased on period from February 1 6 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
91
2
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1 6 , changes are computed in a 3-term mov91
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
^Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only.
Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.




63

TABLE

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

i
K
l

COMPARISONS FROM SPECIFIC PEAK AND TROUGH LEVELS AND SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES

Selected series

Month
atter
specific
trough1

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1956

MUCH IMS

Aug.
1954

Got.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NHER LEADING- INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index...*..
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus..
29. New building permits, private housing
.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
43. Unemploy. rate (percent), total (inverted)2.
47. Industrial production.
.
49. GNP in current dollars (Q) . . . . .
....
50. GNP in 1 5 dollars (Q)
94
53. Labor Income in mining, mfg., construction.
54. Sales of retail stores . . . . . . . . . . .
..........

50
48
48
52
50
51
50

102.0
*99.0 *99.8 (NSC)
104.8 *138.1 (NSC)
72.8
101.2 *101.0 *90.3 *107.2
H5.2 *122.5 *186.3 *155.6
104.5
*135.1
*92.9 *65.1
128.2 *99.2 *106.2 *211.6
93.8
(NA)
(NA)
*96.5

48
45
48
45
45
50
46

109.2
-O.I
124.3
125.9
118.2
123.1
124.0

*102.7
*!!
-.
*109.0
*112.4
*107.6
*103.3
*109.4

*105.4 *ni. 7
+1.0
*-1.2
*109.2 *135.1
*121.6 137.1
*110.1 124.1
*116.1 *H7.3
*117.7 (NSC)

103.7
50.3
(NA)
47.4
103.6
(NA)
(NA)
124.1
+7.8
157.2
145.1
(NA)
215.1
124.8

72.8 noo.o «97.8
*70.4 *110.5 #106.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
54.0 (NSC)
189.7
76.2 *76.6 *100.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(to)
*86.3
(NA)
«99.2
*71.3
(NA)
(NA)

95.1 *105.6 «96.6 «91.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
91.8 *116,2 *108.. 2 *112.3
(NSC)
(NA)
82.9 (NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
98.1 (NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
89.4
(NSC) 108.8
(NSC)
86.6

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

61. Bus, expend., new plant and equip. ( )
Q:
a. Actual
.
»
3
b . Antic ipated

42
48
38
64. Book value of mfrs . ' Inventories . . . . . . 43
.....
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q)
36

131.5 *96.2 *131.0 126.2
136.8 *96.2 *131.0 *129-5
94.8 *97.2 *110.9 113.4
115.8 *104.2 *117.2 150.7
93.3 *110.5 *129.0 129.2

(NA)
(NA)
123.0
(NA)
(NA)

54.7 *118.6 *108.1
70.4 *118.6 *108.1
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
87.7
*82.9 *119.7 «91.0

*62.5
*62.5
*74.8
(NA)
«81.0

Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1, Average workweek of production workers, mfg.
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index

50
48
48
52
50
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus. . 51
29. New building permits, private housing
50
NBER ROUGHLT COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41 . Employees in nonagri . establishments . . . .
...
48
43. Unemploy. rate (percent ) total (inverted)2.
,
45
48
47. Industrial production
49, GNP in current dollars (Q)
45
50. GNP in 1 5 dollars (Q)
94
45
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction. .50
46
54. Sales of retail stores
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip. ( )
Q:
42
3
b. Anticipated
48
38
6?, LaboT ooft P^T* unit of output, Ptfg. ..«.«.».
64. BpoV va-lxifi of ?nfT*S , < l^v^^to^i^s .,,,,,,,.,, 43
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) 36

+8.1
+22.6
+6.1
+61.5
+14.4
+38.8
+25.9

*f5.2 *U.3
*f51.7 (NSC)
*+9.4 *+6.8
f0.
*4-48.1 * ! 9 6
*+17.4 *+24.7
*+36.7 *+89.9
(NA)
*+56.3

+11.6
+2.1
+34.0
+26.6
+20.4
+29.1
+29.2

*f7.3
(*+2.6
*+27.2
*+l6.4
*f!2.5
*+17.6
*+13.7

*+-6.5
+23.0
*f!5.2
**-87.4
^+100.3
*f 180.1
(NA)

+7.7
+24.3
^4.5 ^ . *H5.4
79
-37.0 *H2.8 ^20.5 *f42.9 *+23.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) +115.7 ^+46. 2
-13.1 +254.1
+60.3 +104.8 ^7.3 ^+36.7 ^75.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

*+9.1 *H7.8 +39.2 +39.1 * • ! 5 *f!2.0 *+32.6
*!.
+5.3 +16.8 +13.6
*+2.4<
(NA).
(NA)
(NA)
*+21.3 *+50.0 +132.5 +96.8 ^+24.9 ^31.7 %66.1
(NSC) +49.3
*f24.9 +42.2 +73.1 +64.4 (NSC)
(NA)
*fH.3 +27.1
(NSC)
+45.7 (NSC)
(NA)
*+25.6 *f68.5 +194.1 +151.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+54.6 +68.8 (NSC)
*+23.7 (NSC)
(NSC) +27.6

+42.5 *+-22.6 *f47.2 +57.8
(NA) +233.3 *f41.2 *+54.9 *+102,9
+48.2 *+22.6 *U7.2 *f6l.8
(NA) +329.1 «+a.a *+54.9 *f!02.9
-1.3
*+4.9 *+17.4 +21.8 +53.1 +25.6 (NSC) (NSG) *f22.2
(NA)
+18.4 *+10.8 *+26.6 +69.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+55.5
+0.8 *+28.5 *+37.0
+36.2,
(NA) *fll.4 *f26.6 *+7.3 *M-6.0

NOOS: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 53, 54, 62,
and 6 ) the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month, after specific trough) is divided by the value for the spe4,
cific peak or trough month. Similarly, the specific peak or trough' quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series
(series 49, 50, 61, and 6 ) For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 24, and 2 ) the average of the 3 months centered
7.
9,
on the specific peak or trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been
passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month indicated in the first column. The figure shown
represents the change to the specific peak, and the period covered is shorter than that of the current expansion. See appendix
B for specific peak dates.
•'•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to the
latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an asterisk ( )
*.
Percent measures for shorter time spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Specific trough dates
2
3
are shown in appendix B.
Measures are differences from the specific peak or trough levels.
Anticipated expenditures
(2d quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are used for all
other entries.
Digitized64 FRASER
for


APPENDIXES
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough

Cycle

(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1 6
81
December 1867
December 1870
March 1 7
89

June 1857
October 1860 . .
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873.
March 1882

May 1885
April 1888
May 1 9
81
June 1 9
84
June 1 9
87
December 1900

(X)
18
8
32
18
65

30
22
46
18
34
36

(X)
48
30
78
36
99

(X)
40
54
50
52
101

March 1887
July 1890
January 1 9
83
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1 1
94
March 1 1
99
July 1921

May 1 0
97
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1 4
95
October 1 4
99

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1 4
95
November 1948
July 1953

14
13
43
13
8
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
93
45
56

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May 1960

13
9
9

35
25
(X)

58
44
34

48
34
(X)

4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

X
49
2
54
3

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1 1 - 9 1
9916

46

*46

5
48
6

42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




65

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS

Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... Dec.
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
May
Jan.
13. New "business incorporations
Feb.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Oct.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Dec.
23. Industrial materials prices
*, .
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus... Nov.
Dec.
29. New building permits, private housing

4
' 0 Apr. '58 Apr. »54 Apr. ' 9 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. »28 July '24 Feb. '21
6

(NSC)
(NSC)
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Mar. '54
(NA)

'61
'1
6
»61
'60
'0
6
'60
'60

June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.

'58
'7
5
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58

Feb. ' 1
6
May ' 1
6
Feb. '61
IstQ '61
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. '60
Apr. ' 1
6

May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.

'58 Aug.
'58 Sep.
'58 Apr.
'58 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ
'58 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Jan.

Aug.
Feb.
May
June
June
Apr.

'9
4
'9
4
'9
4
'9
4
'9
4
'9
4
(NA)

Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
2
2
3
Sep. '39 Dec. ' 4 Dec. '26 June ' 4 Jan. ' 1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. »38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores

'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
«54
'54

Oct. »49 June
Oct. ' 9 June
4
Oct. »49 May
2ndQ ' 9 2ndQ
4
2ndQ ' 9 IstQ
4
Oct. ' 9 May
4
Oct. ' 9 June
4
(NSC) May

'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.

'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33

IstQ
July
May
3rdQ

'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.

Business expenditures, new plant and equip. . 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of ! output, manufacturing. Dec.
June
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q), 4thQ

'61 3rdQ
'61 May
'61 Aug.
'61 2ndQ

'58
'59
'58
'58

IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ

'55 4thQ
'55 Aug.
'54 Jan.
'55 IstQ

'9
4
'50
'50
'50

3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ

'38
'0
4
'39
'0
4

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing

Apr. '59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53

June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.

(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22

(NSC) Mar. ' 6 July »37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25
4
(NSC) July ' 6 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25
4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4
Feb. '51 Jan. ' 8
(NSC)
4
Jan. '53 June ' 8 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
2
4
Feb. '51 Jan. ' 8 Mar. '37 Mar. ' 9 Nov. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4
Feb. '51 Apr. ' 8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

1
Aug. '22 Dec. ' 9
1
Apr. '23 Dec. ' 9
(NA)
(NA)
1
Mar. '23 July ' 9
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58

Mar.
Feb.
Dec.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.

'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55

Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
2ndQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60

Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
July
Aug.

'57 June
'57 July
'57 July
'57 2ndQ
'57 2ndQ
'57 Oct.
'57 July
'57 Mar.

'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
*53
'53
'53

Sep. ' 8 July
4
Jan. »48 July
July ' 8 May
4
4thQ ' 8 3rdQ
4
4thQ ' 8 3rdQ
4
Oct. ' 8 June
4
Sep. ' 8 May
4
(NSC) Sep.

»37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37

3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ

'57
'58
'57
'57

'53
'54
'53
'53

4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ

2
2
2
'37 2ndQ ' 9 4thQ ' 6 2ndQ '23 2ndQ ' 0
(NSC)
(NSC) Oct. »23 Nov. '20
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
43.
47.
49.
50.
52.
53.
54.

Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Industrial production
GNP in current dollars (Q)
GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
Personal income
Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
Sales of retail stores

2
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. ' 0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. *27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
2
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ ' 4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC)
(NSC) July '20
Sep. '29

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.

Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing .Feb.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Sep.
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ

'0
6
'1
6
'60
'59

3rdQ
Jan.
Sep.
4thQ

'8
4
'9
4
'9
4
'9
4

3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ

NOTE: Specific trough and peek dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.

66



Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes

Monthly series

CI

I

C

i/c

I/C
for

MCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

M/Tl

span

CI

I

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

0.21
1.63
1.18
3.88
3.99

2.00
2.77
1.09
2.20
4.29

2
3
2
3
5

0.95
.91
.59
.70
.89

2.15
2.17
2.27
2.17
1.63

1.65 10.58
1.74 9.93
1.63 9.77
1.74 8.18
1.44 6.35

4.06
4.42
5.25
5.96
3.08

4.62
3.25

2.49
1.61

1.86
2.02

2
3

.86
.59

1.72
1.67

1.51
1.54

9.77
8.33

3.94
4.56

4.47 4.01
9.66 9.43
4.93 4.61
7.34 7.31
3.82 3.39
2.68 2.36
16.86 16.36
13.09 12.81

1.61
1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
1.10
2.52
2.11

2.49
5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
2.15
6.49
6.07

3
6
4
6
3
3
6
6

.84
C1)
.82
(x)
.68
.77
C1)
t1)

1.76
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.10
1.48
1.53

1.51 12.50
1.54 6.63
1.59 10.75
1.53 6.13
1.53 14.38
1.70 6.30
1.32 5.77
1.37 9.77

3.62
3.03
3.71
2.32
3.32
3.02
2.26
5.30

.69
2.65

.56
1.86

.33
1.67

1.70
1.11

2
2

.94
.68

2.23
2.35

1.74 7.47
1.67 12.70

3.60
3.94

6.81

5.29

3.10

1,71

3

.66

2.54

1.76 10.58

4.63

5.81

5.32

2.14

2.49

3

.76

1.87

1.63 12.70

3.91

7.68
1.32

5.54
1.04

4.73
.4
7

1.17
1.41

2
2

.79
.95

3.53
2.44

2.12 9.77
2.05 11.55

4.20
4.06

41 Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . . . . . .30
....
.36
4? Tntal ncvn^gr 1 nttf "falT^l employment , tt ,....
3.94
5.63
4.82
45 Average weekly insured unemployment, State
3.11

.15
.9
2
3.08
4.16
2.56
1.88

.4
2
.9
1
2.29
2.74
3.56
2.35

.63
1.53
1.34
1.52
.72
.80

1
2
2
21
1
1

.63
.79
.71
.86
.72
.80

5.15
1.96
2.75
2.88
3.74
3.47

1.96
1.54
1.79
1.89
2.12
1.60

15.44
15.89
11.00
11.00
9.07
9.62

5.15
3.64
3.84
4.80
3.74
3.47

1.09
1.48
.9
4
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, construction... .81
.78
.7
1
55 Wholesale prices except farm products and foods

.58
1.44
.27
.53
.63
.0
1

.79
.60
.1
4
.61
.4
4
.3
1

.73
2.40
.66
.87
1.43
.7
7

1
3
1
1
2
1

.73
.54
.66
.87
.85
.7
7

3.53
1.69
3.43
3.43
2.53
3.53

2.05
1.53
1.84
1.90
1.80
2.65

9.77
18.14
18.14
11.55
9.54
11.55

3.53
4.31
3.43
3.43
3.62
3.53

.65
.54

.8
4
.9
1

.36
.9
4

1.33
.39

2
1

.72
.39

2.27
8.33

1.55 9.07
2.02 13.89

4.34
8.33

.80
.83

.54
.17

.49
.78

1.10
.22

2
1

.53 2.40
.22 11.45

1.42 15.63 5.17
2.29 18.00 11.45

5.68 5.59
5.37 5.20
26.87 26. .37
15.12 14.78
26.25 26.21

.82
.95
4.09
2.70
6.12

6.82
5.47
6.45
5.47
4.28

6
6
6
6
6

C1)
C1)
1
C1)
C)
t1)

1,51
1.74
1.51
1.47
1.58

1.41
1.57
1.46
1.43
1.47

8.47
7.47
5.93
6.61
5.95

2.18
2.60
2.27
2.48
2.86

23.00 23.02
7.33 5.69
1.80 1.39
1.68 1.50
2.57 2.17
.27
.58

3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.12
.52

6.39
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52

6
2
2
4
3
1

C1)
.1
8
.95
,93
.86
.52

1.51
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13

1.45 5.56
2.00 9.71
2.13 10.46
1.79 8.67
1.90 8.56
2.63 17.13

2.53
3.55
3.75
4.90
-3.55
9.13

1.
2
30.
3
4.
5.

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing.
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Layoff rate manufacturing
Temporary layoff, all industries
Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
6 New orders, durable goods industries

24 New orders, machinery and equipment industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
10 Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
29.
13
14.
15

New building permits, private housing
New business incorporations ....
Liabilities of business failures
Large business failures

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
26. Buying policy production materials, commitments 60
days or longer.
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
23 Industrial materials prices

0.49 0.42
4.80 4.52
1.82 1.29
9.35
8.52
17.76 17.12
5.29
3.79

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

51 Bank debits outside NYC

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of finished

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE

91 Defense Department obligations, total

118. Mortgage yields
See footnotes at end of table.




67

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued

V5

CI

Monthly series

I

V5

C

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

MCD

OTfffiR U.S, SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE—Con.
86.
87
81.
94.
96.

4.59
Exports, excluding military aid
General imports . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61
.. . * . . * . . . .
.15
Consumer prices
7.03
Construction contracts, value
1.51
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries

2.75
2.97
6.00
3.59
5.95

4.39
3.47
.10
6.69
.57

1.11
.97
.13
1.69
1.34

3.95
3.58
.77
3.96
.3
4

4
4
1
5
1

0.96
.85
.77
.84
.3
4

1.77
1.59
6.00"
1.52
5.95

1.66
1.51
2.25
1.45
1.87

7.06
7.53
25.20
7.88
13.89

.77
1.09
.83
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07

.52
.7
4
.50
.69
.68
.4
7
1.23

1.48
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87

2
3
2
2
2
3
1

.72
.81
.89
.93
.89
.64
.87

3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91

2.12
1.87
2.40
2.14
2.08
1.82
1.52

15.63
8.27
8.93
5.59
7.75
31.25
18.00
5.43
25.00 11.27
31.00
6.42
17.86 2.91

I

C

I/O

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122 . United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . West Germany
126 . France
127. Italy
128. Japan

,,..

.90
1.14
.86
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70

CI

Quarterly series

QCD

1/5
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

QCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
16 . Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all
industries

0.97
.86
1.15

1
1
2

0.97
.86
.56

2.42
2.47
2.47

1.48
1.35
1.40

5.11
5.25
5.25

2.42
2.47
2.73

3.78

.99

1

.99

3.23

1.40

5.25

3.23

.49
.50
.38

1.07
1.33
1.20

.46
.38
.31

1
1
1

.6
4
.38
.31

3.82
4.67
6.00

1.45
1.35
1.45

4.67
6.00
8.40

3.82
4.67
6.00

3.15
.90
2.31

1.26
.9
4
1.57

2.64
.72
2.00

.8
4
.68
.79

1
1
1

.48
.68
.79

4.67
3.15
2.47

1.83
1.41
1.56

4.67
5.86
4.67

4.67
3.15
2.47

, 11.61
4.32
6.57

8.33
2.86
1.47

7.58
2.90
6.15

1.10
.99
.24

2
1
1

.43
.99
.24

2.59 1.33
2.30 1.48
3.21 . 1.61

4.00
4.60
7.50

4.30
2.30
3.21

11.35
6.28
6.76

7.11
4.03
4.80

7.31
4.71
4.17

5.10

3.76

1.29
1.54
1.30

1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales

*
,

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
110 . Total private borrowing
111 . Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing

NOTE; Measures are computed for a period of at least 10
years beginning with January 1953, except for series 7, 86, 87,
and 116. The period begins with May 1959 for series 7 and
with January 1960 for series 116. For series 86 and 87, the
period ends with June 1962.
•"•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
11
CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally

68



adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the_ cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the

irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than5 months,
all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QGD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
."I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD

curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADH falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, , the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.67 for the series on new
orders, durable goods industries (series 6 . This indicates
)
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.5-4 for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 to 5 months. The increase in the
ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical-trend
movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued
Port 2.-Average Unit Changes

I/c
Monthly series

Unit of
measure

CI

I

C

I/C

MCD1

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31, Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories

Ann. rate,
bil. dol..

20. Change in book value of manufacturers1
... .do.. . .
.
inventories of materials , supplies
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. Bil. dol...

3.50

3.37

0.85

3.96

4

0.94

1.47

1.44

7.94

3.22

1.52
.9
4

1.45
.6
4

.37
.6
1

3.93
2.93

5
4

.92
.79

1.64
1.79

1.46
1.58

6.05
7.44

3.15
3.45

5.64
1.56

9
2

.79
.95

1.54
2.03

1.47 6.09
1.52 10.31

3.07
3.17

6.75
5.29

11
7

.82
.97

1.45
1.51

1.48
1.45

6.18
6.80

3.32
2.60

4.51
2.19
3.23

5
3
3

.93
.78
.93

1.47
1.71
1.82

1.47 6.22
9.00
1.55
1.61 11.30

2.48
3.24
2.64

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE
SIGNIFICANCE
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit

Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 5.60 5.46
.97
93. Free reserves
Mil. dol... 104.23 82.19 52.77
Ann. rate,
85 , Change in money supply
;.
.42
percent. . . 2.78 2.81
.48
98. Change in money supply and time deposits.
do
2.52 2.52
Ann. rate,
112. Change in business loans
.26
bil. dol.. 1.22 1.19
.75
.34
do
.85
113 . Change in consumer installment debt
SB. Merchandise trade balance
Mil. dol... 58.96 56.60 17.50
NOTE: Measures are computed for the period, January 1953
to mid-1964, except for series 88 and 112. For series 88, the
period ends with June 1962; and for series 112, the period begins with August 1959.
^ere MCD is larger than "6", a 6-term moving average is
used as the MCD curve.

data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is_ expressed in the same unit of measure as
the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component,
which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.

The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative

All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.




69

Appendix 0,-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1964 TO JUNE 1965)

19^>5

19&

oeries
Qes-rt-T oei

May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec . Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

4. Temporary layoff, all Industries
5. Average weelcly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations1
14, Liabilities of business failures
15 . Large "bus iness failures
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories

78.4

74.4 107.5 140.0 87.0

82.3 83.8 105.2 84.0 77.4
103.0 105 9 107.3 90.5 93.1
95.4 106.1 100.4 104.6 96.6

90.2

89.0

94.6

91.6

87.4

77.6

73.8

88.7 104.5 137.4 144.9 107.2 92.7 91.8 82.3 83. 8
99.4 82.4 101.8 105.2 91.9 115.6 107.3 103.1 105.8
95.7 107.5 77.7 105.6 104.1 100,2 104.7 95,7 106.6

99.5 102.6 86.1 95.7 91.2 93.8 94.8
101.0 101.7 96.3 99.1 1 1 9 103.1 101.1
0.
106.3
101.4
96.9
1 5 ' 6110.5 123 ,*7 111! 6 92.5
0.
108.7

86.0
97.8

106.8 98 9 94.8

116 !i

112.9 114.1 112.0 113.3 99.5 102.3
98.1 99.5 100.0 100.4 101.1 101.7
106.3
95.2
8X6 8o!i 76.9 93.*1 104-! 4 108.2 111.1

92.9 92.9

90.3

93.1

95.1

55. Wholesale prices except farm prod100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.8
ucts and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg... 98.9 98.0 103.8 100.8 98.2
81. Consumer prices
99.7 99 9 100.2 100.0 100.1
82. Federal cash payments to public ;
100.6 102 1 99.8 113.9 94.9
83. Federal cash receipts from public.... 119.2 150.1 49.9 114.4 123.9

100.0
97.2
100.1
107.1
46.2

100.0
99.0
100.1
100.3
102.0

100.1
102.4
99.9
98.4
106.4

90.
91.
92.
112.
128.

157.0 105.5

May June

Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
83.0
Defense Dept. obligations, total
88.4
Military contract awards in U.S
90.0
Change in business loans3. . . . . . . 100.0
.....
Japan, industrial production index... 100.1

197.5 101.4
143.4 114.0
175.2 72.6
99.6 98.9
99.8 99.9

104.9 108.6 108 2 113.4 107 1 99 0
100.0
100.5
99 9
94.4
113.9

99.9
99.8
99 9
93.3
125.0

79.6 99.1 97.9 96.0 93.3
86.3 97.5
92.3 99.6 105.8 91.5 91.8
92.8 88.6
87.5 103.5 101.1 79.4 92.1 100.6 88.9
98.5 99.3 99.9 101.2 102 0 100 6 99 7
96.5 99.3 99.6 99.2 102.1
94.0 102.1

78.6
96.3
125.1
100 3
108.1

100.2
102.3
99 9
95.2
69.2

99.9 100.0 99.9
99.3 98.9 98.0
99.8 99.7 99 9
99.8 100.4 101 9
79.6 119.3 150.0
87.9
95.8
84.7
100 3
99.5

83.9
88.6
90.2
100 0
101.1

197.9
143.1
171.9
99.6
99.8

NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed ip middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.

70



Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May

1920-July
1923-July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937-June

1921
1924
1927
1933
1938

Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945^
Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949
July 1953-Aug . 19545
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median: 6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP
of indus- in 1954 in curdollars rent
trial
dollars
produc(Q)1
tion
(Q)1

43. Unemployment rate, total

51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
sonal
of retail Change
debits
income
stores
outside
in rate, Rate at
NYC
peak to
peak
trough

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5

+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7

(NA)
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.8

-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+1.0

+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9

+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7

-5.6

-16.0

-2.4

-2.9

-3.1

-2.2

-1.2

-6.5
-3.6

-16.0
-8.8

-2.3
-2.4

-2.9
-2.2

-3.6
-0.8

-2,3
-0.2

-1.8
-1.2

Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak

July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June

1921-May
1924-Oct.
1927-Aug.
1933-May
1938-Feb.

1923
1926
1929
1937
19454

Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948
Oct. 1949-July 19535
Aug. 1954-July 1957
Apr. 1958-May 1960
Median: 6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expans ions
4 expansions since 1945...

2

2
+7.9
2

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP
of indus- in 1954 in curdollars rent
trial
dollars
produc(Q)1
tion
(Q)1

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1

+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8

4.0
3.2

Rate at
trough

2

0.0
11.2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9

+3.4

3.5

7.2

+3.6
+3.4

3.9
4.0

7.6
7.2

2

31 9
3'

3

43. Unemployment rate, total

51. Bank 52. Per- 54 Sales
of retail Change
sonal
debits
in rate, Rate at
stores
outs ide income
trough
NYC
trough
to peak
2
-8.7
2
-3.6
2

2

n.9-.f
2

Rate at
peak

2
3.2
2
1.9
23

(NA)

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0

..
09
-14.2
-18.9

5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2

+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9

+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.3

+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.6

+59.7
+26,3
+20.0
+10.8

+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4

+17.5

+35.2

+12.8

+27.9

+33.8

+27.0

+19.9

-3.7

7.1

3.3

+13.0
+13.0

+26.6
+23.6

+12.5
+12.7

+21.4
+29.4

+24.4
+39.0

+21.6
+25.6

+14.7
+23.2

-2.6
-2.0

6.3,
6.8s

3.7
3.9

3.2
11.2
1.1
3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average Of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
^ most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
e
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




71

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES

Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not "been shown here previously or have been revised
historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are
shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Jan.

Year

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

-Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except New York (224 SKSA's) (Annual rate, bil. del.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

874-9
855.0
868.3
1,132.0
1,134.1
1,243.1
1,254.1
1,338.6
1,528.7
1,635.4
1,641.7
1,774.2
1,903.5
2,009.2

865.3
858.0
887,8
1,104.4
1,165.3
1,233.9
1,311.9
1,372.4
1,519.3
1,651.2
1,590.2
1,810.3
1,985.8
1,974.1

841.0
873.6
866.5
860.6
851.5
868.4
941.8
891.1
913.4
1,134.9 1,126.5 1,125.5
1,137.3 1,149.6 1,163.4
•1,265.6 1,269.7 1,263.5
1,286.4 1,279.8 1,270.5
1,399.5
1,514.7
1,642.6
1,611,6
1,830.9
1,929.3
2,008.0

1,400.2
1,546.3
1,636.3
1,610.9
1,862.8
1,947.3
2,004.2

882.1
852.3
974.7
1,122.1
1,159.3
1,271.6
1,286.5

904.3
853.2
995.1
1,094.0
1,178.2
1,270.3
1,287.9

1,441.7 1,440.8 1,441.3
1,546.9 1,550.0 1,571.2
1,669.6 '1,628.7 1,671.1
1,604.7 1,653.1 1,648.0
1,842.8 1,843.8 1,896.0
1,947.3 1,956.1 1,928.0
2,057.7 2,051.7 2,069.6

893.2
896.7
893.1
894.2
848. S
854.0
845 .'3
851.5
1,053.8 1,067.5 1,047.6 1,038.8
1,117.3 1,114.4 1,132.9 1,154.9
1,164.7 1,191.5 1,231.7 1,194.8
1,270.8 1,280.1 1,268.5 1,262/4
1,294.5 ' 1,291.2 1,283.8 1,330.3

872. 5
873.3
1,081.4
1,130.7
1,244.3
1,260.6
1,344.4

1,492.0
1,613.0
1,654.9
1,712.8
1,904.2
1,978.5
.2,141.5

1,500,5
1,597.8
.1,648.3
1,784.2
1,911.8
1,959.8
2,156.2

1,462.3
1,570.3
1,682.6
1,652.1
1,865.9
1,993.0
2,061,5

1,477.9
1,543.1
1,676.6
1,715.3
1,860.6
1,987.0
2,078.9

1,433.3
1,597.0
1,652.6
1,736.6
1,876,2
1,955.0
2,142.4

110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Annual rate, mil. dol.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

...
...

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

...

25,024
26,464
17,840
...

32,924
37,780
35,796
24,456
38,420
40,820
31,168

26,140
21,848
21,304
35,664
32,564
34,904
24,644
54,168
35,716
32,420

28,600
20,448
22,660

...

...

37,764
33,480
28,348
33,236
40,368
34,488
39,916

...

27,168
18,928
28,456
39,64B
31,372
27,772
40,124
36,972
28,972
42,784

...

Dl. Diffusion index for Average workweek, manufacturing — 21 industries ( 1-month span)
1948..
1949..
1950
1951
1952
1953...
1954..
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961

.

40.5
81.0
54.8
73.8
28.6
23.8
90.5
38.1
40.5
35.7
90.5
35.7
92.9

26,2
64.3
64.3
54.8
42.9
42.9
71. -4
81.0
31.0
73.8
14.3
64.3
11.9
61.9

71.4
26.2
71.4
71.4
26.2
83.3
31.0

52.4
9.5
81.0
78.6
14.3
42.9
28.6

83.3
23.8
23.8
69.0
66.7
35.7
50.0

42.9
71.4
42.9
38.1
69,0
35.7
73.8

42.9
69.0
66.7
19.0
83.3
31.0
64.3
90.5
4.8
9.5
64.3
71.4
81.0
54-8

45.2
47,6
85.7
38.1
57.1
16.7
83.3
38.1
28.6
50.0
95.2
31.0
19.0
95.2

38.1
64.3
81.0
38.1
16.7
38.1
64.3
19.0
78,6
42.9
76.2
40.5
42.9
61.9

73.8
42.9
64.3
21.4
85.7
31.0
54.8
64.3
21.4
40.5
76.2
35.7
23.8
64.3

9.5
8.1.0
28.6
71.4
95.2
9.5
11.9
69.0
73.8
52.4
76.2
19.0
23.8
40.5

50.0
59.5
59.5
1,6.7
61.9
81.0
76.2
71.4
61.9
4.8
40.5
59.5
78.6
92.9

38.1
19.0
57.1
69.0
31.0
23.8
92.9
71.4
14.3
35.7
88.1
42.9
23.8
71.4

14.3
59.5
38.1
73.8
59.5
35.7
35.7
31.0
69.0
33.3
47.6
69-0
9.5
23.8

D5. Diffusion index for Initial claims, State unemploy. insur., week ended nearest 22d— 47 areas (l-mo. span)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954..
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961


72


70.2
62.8
21.3
42.6
61,7
28.7
36.2
87.2
34.0
59.6

51.1
21.3
42.6
68.1
55.3
80.9
4.3
42.6
40.4
17.0

29.8
59.6
34.0
66.0
44.7
38.3
53.2
59.6
19.1
78.7

37.2
42.6
48.9
45.7
67.0
27.7
44.7
85.1
45.7
44.7

57.4
31.9
48.9
57.4
31.9
51.1
72.3
40.4
38.3
53.2

36.2
48.9
61.7
31.9
42.6
42.6
57.4
36.2
42.6
66.0

29.8
51.1
57.4
71.3
40.4
38.3
61.7
53.2
59.6
46.8

89.4
25.5
19.1
41.5
66,0
53.2
45.7
44.7
19.1
55.3

74.5
34.0
53.2
51.1
46.8
28,7
62.8
42.6
68.1
51.1

53.2
36.2
46.8
50.0
69.1
42.6
76.6
17,0
40.4
80.9

59.6
19.1
89.4
66.0
44.7
21.3
62.8
51.1
29.8
74.5

34.0
46.6
63.8
80.9
27.7
25.5
51.1
34.0
89.4
59.6
27.7







INDEX
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
Tables

Charts

Appendixes

Series
number1

F
1

2

3A

3B

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

A

B

C

D

30
31
32
37

10
14
14
14

40
41
42
43
45
4..
6.
47
4 . ...
9

15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16

50
51
52
53..
54
55
57
58

16
17
17
17
17
17
16

61
62
64
65
66
67
68

18
18
18
18
18
18
18

coooooooooooooco

14
14
13
14
11
14
14
11

59

56

59

56
56

59
59

••

57
57

60

57
57

-•

60

60
60

58
58
58

61
61
61

58

61

oooooooocooooocoooco

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
29

56

oooooooooooooooo

11
11
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
13

25
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
27
26
26
27
24
27
27
25

oooooooo

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

4
5
6
7
9

24
27
27
27

cooococococoooco

10
10'
10
10
10
11
11
11

24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25

28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29

cococococococo

Page

1
2
3

29
29
29
29
29
29
29

9
9
9
9
9
9
9

30
30
30
30
30
30
30

••

••

••
••

••

62
62
62
62
62
62

63
63
63
63
63
63

66

64
••

••
••

66

67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67

64

62
62

63
63

*.

62
62

63
63

64

••

62

63

64

..
••
*•

-•

-••
••

66

66
66

67
67
67
68
67
68
67

••

..

••

••

62

63
63

64
64

••

66
66

63

64

••

66

••

••

••

62

63

64

••

66

-•

••

••

62

63

64

••

66

62
62

63
63

64
64

62
62
62

63
63
63

64

••
••
•-

••

66
66
66

••

70
70
70

64
64

62
62

••

••

••
••

•-

63
63

62
62
62

63
63
63

64
64
64

66
66
66

62
62

63
63

64

*•
66

66
66
66

••

*•

68
67
67
67
67
68
68

'4
6
'4
6
'3
6
'63
'4
6
'4
6
'63
'4
6
'4
6

June
June
June
Jan.
Dec.
Dec.
June
June

'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'63
'3
6
'4
6
'4
6

66
65
66
68

••

70
70

70
70

67
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
68
67
67
67
67
67
68

Nov.
June
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
June
June
June
Apr.

Oct.
June
Mar.
June

»63
'4
6
'4
6
'3
6

72
68
72
72
66
66
70
68

Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
Mar.
Feb.
Sept.
Aug.

'65
'4
6
'65
'65
»64
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6

69
72
69
66
66
69
70
66

Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.

'4
6
'65
'4
6
<63
'3
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6

65
68
66
66
70
70
66

June
June
June
June
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.

Issue

'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'63
'3
6
'4
6
' 64

68
63
66
66
66
64
68
64
66

Page

'4
6
'3
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6

..

68
67
67
69
67
67
67
69
67
67

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
July
May
June

64
64
65
66
66
66
65
63

70
70

69
62
62

Issue

68
68
68
66
66
65
63

67
68

••

G

E

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
70

*.

70

••

••

•"•See back cover for series titles and sources.




75

SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)

Charts

Appendixes

Tables

Series
number1

G

F
1

2

3A

3B

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

A

B

C

D

E
Page

81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89

22
19
19
19
20
22
22
22
22

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

34
31
31
31
32
33
34
34
34

68
67
67
69
69
68
68
69

70
70
70

90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

19
19
19
20
22
19
22
22
20
19

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

31
31
31
32
34
31
34
34
32
32

67
67
67
69
68

70
70
70

10
1
Ill
112
113
14
1
115
116
17
1
118

20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
21

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

121
122
123
125
126
127
128

23
23
23
23
23
23
23

••

-•

70 Aug.

Page

Issue

'4
6

••
69
69
69
69
69

Dec.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.

70
70
70
66

Sept. ' 4
6
Sept. ' 4
6
Sept. ' 4
6
Oct. !64

68
68
69
67

66
66
68
69
66

Oct.
June
Nov.
Dec.
Oct.

'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6

32
32
32
33
33
33
33
33
33

68
68
69
69
67
67
67
67
67

72
72
71
71
71
72
72
72
72

Mar.
Feb.
July
July
July
July
July
July
July

'65
'65
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6

35
35
35
35
35
35
35

68
68
68
68
68
68
68

66
67
67
67
67
68
68

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
!
64
!
64
'4
6
'4
6

72
72
69
73
69
73
69

Mar.
Mar.
Oct.
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Oct.

'65
'65
'4
6
'65
'4
6
'65
'64

70
70
70
70
69
70
73
69

Nov.
Nov.
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
Oct.
Feb.
Nov.

'4
6
'4
6
!
64
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'65
'4
6

Dl
D5
D6
Dll
D19
D23
D34

39
39
39
39
39
39
39

42
43
42
42
43
43
43

D35
D36
D41
D47
D48
D54
D58
D61

41
41
40
40
41
40
40
41

45
45
44
44
45
44
44
45

»•
••
*•
••

•'•See back cover for series titles and sources.

76



Issue

46
50
47
48
49

51
52
53
54

••

70

••

70

'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
»64
'4
6

73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74

July
J;iJy
July
July
July
July
July
July
July

'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6