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DEPARTMENT


DEVELOPMENTS
June 1967
DATA THROUGH MAY

OF COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

This report was prepared in the Economic
Research and Analysis Division under the
direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief, Technical'
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A, Beckman—Specification fori
computer processing,
John C. Musgrave—New projects,
Morton $cwer«-S$!ection, qf ^easonal, :
|J
adjustment metHbds,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of Nsic data.
,,,
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division* Stuart I. Freeman is r$*
sponsible for publication design.
The cooperation of various; gQyernm$f]t,,ao
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged, The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in. the list of series anc(;
soiirces on ihi back cover of this report.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director

;

Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development

JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
60 cents,
„ , v,,,., ,-,,;,...
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge. For information about domestic or
foreign airmail delivery; write to the Super-1
intendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.

ABOUT THE COVER^Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the backgrpund of contrac- ,
tions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which'
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends, Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel. ,

U.S. DEPARTMENT Ol» COMMENCE




PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER, In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, iiicome, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business- cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions ar^d
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can l>e
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are used in pr6paring BCD. Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source
agency. A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report.

June 1967
DATA THROUGH MAY

DEVELOPMENTS




CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations

iii
iv
v
vi

Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
.
How to Read Charts 1 and 2

.

.

,
_
,

1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4

Section One—Basic Data
Table 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
Chart 1. Business Cycle Series From 194 8 to Present
Table 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series

6
9
29

Section Two—Analytical Measures
Table
Chart
Table
Table

3.
2.
4.
5.

Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components

44
45
48
52

Section Three—Cyclical Comparisons
Chart 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles

64

CONTENTS
Continued




Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 „„
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series

69
70
72
76
77
78

Index
Series Finding Guide

80

Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification, See the index and back cover for series titles)

^\
^\^
Economic
Process

Cyclical
Timing

^\^
^\^^

1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT

(14 series)

NBER
LEADING INDICATORS

(36 series)

(25 series)
Margmal employment,
adjustments
(5 series)

(14 series)

IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)

NBER
LAGGING INDICATORS

(11 series)

OTHER
SELECTED U.S. SERIES

(16 series)

Lonfe-duration unemployment
(f series)

Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)

II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

NBER
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)

Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)

inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)

Investment expenditures
(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

(9 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS

(11 series)

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)

VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)

VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES

(9 series)




Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)

Comprehensive wholesale prices
(2 series)

Unit labor costs
(2 series)

Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)

Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)

Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)

Federal Government
activities
(9 series)

BACKGROUND MATERIALS
3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplication in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):

A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.

13 series new to the 1966 list:
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101. National defense purchases
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings

The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow:
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories take into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role in business cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them.- The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and
19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S.
series are classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series;(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures. A ninth group on economic
activity in other countries (7 series) is also provided.




10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33, Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505, Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
*Denotes series included on "short list."

IV

• A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.

Changes in this issue are as follows:

1.

NEW

The series on the Federal cash budget (series 82,

83, and 84) are now shown throughout the report on a
quarterly basis only. This change was made because of
the difficulty of adjusting current monthly data on
Federal cash receipts for the accelerated schedule of
corporate tax collections.

Since these quarterly series

are seasonally adjusted by the source agencies, seasonal
factors for series 82 and 83 will no longer be shown in
appendix D.
2.

The series on U.S.balance of payments (series 89a

and 89b) have been revised by the source agency from the
first quarter I960 to date.
3.

Series 6, manufacturers1 new orders, durable goods

industries, is shown historically in appendix F because
of revisions (194-8 through 1952) that have been made in
the series since it was shown in this report in May 1964*
4.

Appendix F includes historical data for series 6,

82, 83, 8 . 89a, and 89b.
4,

The July issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on July 27.




ll; •"




CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.

The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.

BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a shorf span of years.

This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.

This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.

VI

DESCRIPTIONS
AND

INTRODUCTION

The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION

On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag-




ging" indicators, These indicators are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach
peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic
activity as measured by the roughly coincident series
(see below). One group of these series pertains to
orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators,—Series that
are direct measures of aggregate economic activity
or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and
retail sales.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers*
inventories, that usually reach turning points after
they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Other selected U.S.
series," economic activities which are important in
analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent
relation to them, and (b) industrial production indexes
for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report
are those designated by the NBER. They mark the
approximate dates when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels.
As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months
after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and
trough dates.)

ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION

A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two principles.
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST1' OF INDICATORS

A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.

METHOD OF PRESENTATION

This report consists of three major sections as follows:
Bask Data (chart 1, tables 1 arid 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 to 5).—Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the business
cycle.
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3).—Comparisons are made
between current cyclical levels and previous business
cycles.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.

CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES

Several other concepts atid procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally ad-




justed data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 5.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.

REFERENCES

Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955),
pp. 7-16.
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.

(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings oj the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966.
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,




Occasional Paper 103. New York: National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.

HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.

CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series^
IMty) IFeb.)

Arabic number indicates late
month for which data are plotte
"=March)

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.

Roman number indicates late
quarter for which data are plotte
("II"=second quarter)

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)

Dotted line indicates anticipat
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

Various scales are used to hig
light the patterns of the individi
series, "Scale A" is an arithmel
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithm
scale with 1 cycle in a given d
tance, "scale L-2" is a logarithm
scale with 2 cycles in that distant
etc. The scales should be carefu
noted because they show wheth
or not the plotted lines for vario
series are directly comparable.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.

* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2*/2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
recession and beginning of Expa
sion as designated by NBER.

CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Scale shows percent of componen
ising.
Arabic number indicates late
month for which data are used
computing the indexes. ("2"=
February)

Roman number indicates late
quarter for which data are used
computing the indexes. ("IV"
fourth quarter)

Broken line with plotting points i
dicates quarterly data over varioi
intervals. This line is also used
indicate anticipated quarterly dal

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.



Section ONE

BASIC
DATA
charts and tables
HADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production, income, consumption, and trade
Fixed capital investment

LAGGING

Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
INDICATORS
Employment and

unemployment

fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment

\




Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Prices, costs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS

Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries

Table 1
ft 004

5S

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

f/lCf

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS

Average percent change 2

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Mar.
1967

Feb.
1967

Apr.
1967

May
1967

May '66 May '66
to date to date
(with (without
sign)5
sign)4

3

1953 to
1965
{without
sign)5 6

Current percent change 3
Feb.
to
Mar.
1967

Mar.
to
Apr.
1967

Apr.
to
May
1967

LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
*30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
2, Accession rate, manufacturing
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted 3 ) .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 3) .

Hours
Thousands
Per 100 employ. .

40.3
519
4.2

Thousands
Per 100 employ. .

.242
1.5

III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
1957-59=100...
*38. Index of net business formation
13, New business incorporations
Number
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . Bil. dollars
94. Construction contracts, value
1957-59=100...
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. . . dollars....
Bil.
7
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.
..... do .
do . .
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Mil. sq. ft.
and industrial buildings
floor space . . .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann. rate, thous.
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
1957-59=100 ..
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries7 8
Ann. rate, bil.dol,
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
8
and trade inventories
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
20. Change in book value, mfrs/ inven8
tories of materials and supplies
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer fij) . . ,
Percent . .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries '^)
do . .
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
8
goods industries
Bil. dollars ...
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices @
1957-59-100...
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © . . .1941-43=10...
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes 7
Ann. rate, bit. dot
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
7
corporate, all industries
Percent
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7
Cents....
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg .... 1957-59=100..
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 8money supply and time
deposits
Ann.rate,percent
85. Change in total U.S. money suoply8. . . .
do . . .
33. Change in mortgage debt8. . . i
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
*113. Change in consumer installment debt8. .
do . . .
112. Change in business loans8
do
7
110. Total private borrowing
Ann. rate, mil. dot
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3) Mil. dollars
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans,
30 days and over (inverted 3 )
Percent . . .




(NA)

-0.2
-1.0
-2.0

0.6
3.9
5.4

0.5
1.8
4.6

+0.2
-4.2
0.0

+0.2
-4.6
-4.8

-5.5
(NA)

234
(NA)

-2.5
-4.8

8.7
16.1

5.0
8.8

-5.8
-13.3

-2.7
+11.8

+11.0
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

-0.2
+0.1

0.9
2.2

0.8
2.5

+0.1
+1.6

+0.7
+3.2

(NA)
(NA)

3.7

6.0
4.1
9.3
3.5

3.8
6.6
4.7
10.4
4.2

-1.2
+4.2
+3.0

+1.2
-7.4
-1.8

+6.6
+11.6
+4.8

P4.72

-0.1
+0.1
0.0
-7.5
-0.1

+1.9

+3.7

+5.4

53.16
pi, 286
P92.3

-1,0
+0.7
+0.1

8.4
9.4
7,7

9.3
7,2
3.7

-2.9
-0.6
+3.8

+5.2
+1.4
+10.7

-10.0
+11.2
+1.8

-2,2

6.6

2.3

-1.5

4.3

3.7

+1.5

»2.6

(NA)

-2.1

7.0

6.5

+7.0

-19.6

-0.2

1.7

1.5

+0.7

+1.4

(NA)

40,5
474
p4.o

P40.3
p448

256
1.7

263
pl.5

103.2
15,987

103.3
16,244

104.0
16,760

22.33
143
5.34
P5.57
4*24

r22.06
149
r5.50

r22.32
138
r5.40

P23.79
154
P5.66

r4.32

4.48

57, 84
1,14?
78.9

56.14
rl,140
81.9

59.04
rl,156
r90.7

40.4
497
r4.2

+5.6

-0.5

+2.3

r+3.8

p+1.2

43

46

37

-1.0

r-0.3

pfl.l

67

68

67

66

-0.4

2.6

5.3

+1.5

-1.5

-1.5

51

38

39

36

-5.5

7.9

7.5

-25.5

+2.6

-7.7

-0.30

r-1.07

r-0.02

p+0.89

-0.04

0.89

0.48

-0.77

+1.05

+0.91

105.2

102.5

100.1

99.5

-1-4

1.6

1.3

-2.6

-2.3

-0.6

87.36

89.42

90.96

92.59

+0.6

2.5

2.5

+2.4

+1.7

+1.8

-2.1

2.1

5.6

-2.9
-2.9
-0.3

2.9
2.9
0.4

4.2
5.7
0.6

-0.6

0.0

+0.1

+1.57
-0.46
-0.30
-0.63
-6.1

6.38
12.27
1.74
0.79
5.87
19.1

2.56
3.15
1.31
0.87
2.22
11.0

-8.9

31.4

-1.6

2.5

(NA)

39
(NA)

r45.6

na.o
8.5
rl01.9

rl01.3

rl01.3

pl01.4

+12.72 +16.20
+4.56 p+14.16
+5.64 +16.92
-4.92 p+13.92
(HA)
+12.13 r+11.93 p+11.84
+2.56
+3.17
(NA)
+2.59
+0.86
+6.83
+9.25
p+1.63
p60,372
111.23
1.82

108.87

110.80
1.90

93.00

+0.90

18.7

2.6

+5.4

+3.48 -11.64 +9.60
+11.28 -21.84 +18.84
-0.20 -0.09
(NA)
+0.58 -0.61
(NA)
+5.97 +2.42 -7.62

+2.1

-1.8
-/./.

+16.1

Table 1

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued

Average percent change2

Basic data !

Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Feb.
1967

Mar.
1967

Apr.
1967

May
1967

May '66
to date
(with
sign)4

3

May '66 1953 to
to date
1965
(without (without
5
sign)
sign)5 6

Current percent change3

Feb.
to
Mar.
1967

Mar.
to
Apr.
1967

Apr.
to
May
1967

IROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
Thousands. .. .
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled
1957-59-100..
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
Ann.
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments. . . . rate, bil.
man-hours... '
*4I. Employees in nonagri. establishments. . . Thousands
do
42. Total nonagricultural employment
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . .Percent ...'...
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
do
State (inverted ^)
...
do.....
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv.3)

-2.7:

-3.0
-1.6

P350
p!72

-0.'6

2.3
1.6

3.1
'3.0

133.52 ri.33.5i rl32.71 $132.58
65,497 r65,600 i-65,479 p65,435
70,247 69,892 70,020 69,637

+0.1
+0.2
+0.2

0,4
0.3
0.4

0.4
0.3

0.4

O.CT
+0.2
-0.5

+0.2

-0.1
-0.5

-2.8

-2.7^

374
190

364
184

353
181

-3.2

-0.6
-0.2

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.8

+0.2

2.5

3.9

+2.7

2.4
1.6

2.6
1.7

2.6
1.9

2.6
1.9

-2.1
-0.6

4.9
4.2

4.2
5.1

0.0
-8.3
-6.2: -11.8

1.4
0.7
0.4

1.5
1.3
1.0

-0.8.

-o.i!

0.0!
0.0

II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production: 7
49 GNP in current dollars
*50 GNP in 1958 dollars7
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
*52 Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr. .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
57 Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1957-59-100..

763*7
656.7
156.4

156.4

r!56.0

P155.5

+1.4
+0.7
0.0

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

609.3
160.2

612.7
160.6

614.1
160.2

p6l6.9
P159.5

+0.6
+0.3

0.6
0.5

0.5
0.8

(MA)
86,299 r87,458 pS6,953
758.1
25,470 r25,739 r 25, 923 p26,069

+0.2

+1.7
+0.5

0.8
1.7
1.0

+0.6
0.0

Mil. dollars ...
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Mil. dollars ...

-0.3

-0.3

+0.6
+0.2

+0.2
-0.2

+0.5
-0.4

1.0
1.4
1.0

+1.3

-0.6

(KA)

+1.1

+0.7

+0.6

1.2
1.3

1.4
6.6

-1.4
-1.9

0.0

+1.2

+0.1

0.0 :

III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
Bil. dollars.. . i
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus
97 Backlog of capital appropriations mf&9. .

r74.06
p20.32

r74.04

P74.93

106.0
106.4

106.0
106.3

106.0
106.2

106.0
106.3;

4-0.1

+0.1

0.1
0.1

0.2
0.2

0.0
-0.1

0.0
-0.1

-4

+236

+175

p+266

-52

78

98

-240

+61

-91

4.55
5.35
4.47
3.52

4.29
5.55
4.45
3.55

3.85
5.59
4.51
3.60

3.64
5.90
4.76
3.89

-1.9
+0.6
+0.4
• +0.6

4.8
3.0
2.0
3.2

6.7
1.6
1.6

-10.3
+0.7
+1.3

2.5

-5.7
+3.7
-0.4
+0.9

+1.4

-5.5
+5.5
+5.5
+8.1

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

+2.4

5.2

6.5

0.0

0.0

+16.7

ra6l.55

+0.6

1.6

3.2

(MA)

+0.3

1.2

1.6

75.13

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
1957-59=100.. t
commodities ©
do
58. Wholesale pr'ices, manufactured goods®.

0.0

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves

8

(inverted 3) @

Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate©
116 Corporate bond yields©
115 Treasury bond yields®
117 Municipal bond yields©

Mil. dollars... !
Percent
do
do
do

LAGGING INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over (inverted 3)

Percent

Ill, FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*6,1. Business expenditures, new plant and
Ann.rate, bil.dol
equipment 7
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
business construction expenditures. . .



61.65

75.44

r75.!6

p72.87

-0.2
-0.4

-3.0

(NA)

Table 1

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

bed

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued

Average percent change2

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Feb.
1967

Mar.
1967

Apr.
1967

May
1967

May '66
to date
(with
sign)4

3

May '66 1953 to
to date
1965
(without (without6
5
sign)
sign)5

Current percent change3

Feb.
to
Mar.
1967

Mar.
to
Apr.
1967

Apr.
to
May
1967

LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
Bil.
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . dollars....
65. Book value, mfrs/ inventories of
do..
finished goods
......
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp.7
*62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg l
VI, MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding • • *
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans 9®
118. Mortgage yields, residential ©

136.78

r!37.09

P137.19

(NA)

+0.8

0.8

0.5

+0.2

+0,1

(NA)

26.67

r26.83

p27.06

(NA)

+1.1

11
.

0.6

+0.6

+0.9

(NA)

Dollars
1957-59=100...

r.712
rl04.4

r!04.9

r!04.8

p!04.8

+1.3
+0.4

1.3
0.4

0.8
0.5

+0.5

-0.1

Mil. dollars . . -

73,962

74,226

74,439

+0.5

0.5

0.8

+0.4

+0.3

(NA)

...» .do .....

60,525

61,167

62,407

+0.8

1.2

1.0

+1.1

+2.0

-0.8

6.13
6.46

6,35

6.29

6.44

+1.9
+0.2

3.8
1.5

2.0
0.1

-1.7

-0.9

+2.4

114.8

115.0

115.3

(NA)

+0.2

0.2

0.2

+0.2

+0.3

(NA)

-141
-549
-6.5
+0.5
+0.2
+0.6
+0.3

141
1,240
67.1
2.9
18.5
9.0
3.4

341
492
58.4 +12.7
3.8
-1.2
+8.6
12.4
6.3 +28.6
3.0
-0.9

-51.0
+3.5
-15.0
-15.1
+1.8

+9.2

-4.8
-5.3
-0.5
+3.1

;4.8
14.4
5.0
6.8

2.5
4.8
3.4
3.8

+6.9
+2.8
+2.6
+4.3
+1.1

6.9
12.5
17.7
17.5
15.4

2.3
13.9
27.4
22.5
24.5

Percent
do

(NA)
p6l,898

0.0

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81. Consumer prices ®

1957-59-100..

VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 8
a. Liquidity balance basis
Mil. dollars ...
r-544
b. Official settlements basis
do
r-1,822
8
3
88. Merchandise trade balance (inverted ) .
do
+397.1 r+384.4 r+435.4 +426.2
86. Exports, excluding military aid
.
do
2^601.2 r2, 569.1 r2,659.4 2,544.8
(NA)
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.® .
do
P769
r905
833
(NA)
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . 1957-59=100..
196
r252
P214
87. General imports
Mil. idollars . . . 2,204.1 2,184.7 2,224.0 2,118.6

&?
(NA)
-4.7

VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-)f8
; nat'l. income and prod, acct.7
84. I Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit (-f 8.
83. Federal cash receipts from public7
82. Federal cash payments to public 7
101. National 7
defense purchases, current.
dollars
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
99. New orders, defense products
92. Military contract awards in U.S

Ann.rate, bil. dol.
do
do . . .
do

r-10.5
r-1.1
r!55.4
r!56.5

do
Mil. dollars ...
do
Bil. dollars ...
Mil. dollars ...

69.7
6,595
2,140
3.33
3,880

6,343
1,903
3.24
2,662

6,211
1,715
r3.33
2,784

(NA)
(NA)
P3.78
(NA)

-3.8
* 11
1 .
-2.7
-31.4

(NA)
-2.1
(NA)
-9.9
+2.8 +13.5
(NA)
+4.6

•Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted.
NA -not available; r revised; p= preliminary* e -estimated' a-anticioated
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additiwial basic data and notes in
ve ge ercent
3
r i m * ? P
changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of
those ser e h
u ay
SPP n««^??'
: ' V ?| ^ ' jail wh«io general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and
SeneS 3 5 14 39 40
5 88
3 and 502)
Percent chan es are com uted in the usuaf wa but tne sj
s
Vh lo" « lr?
*A ' ' ' ' / f'-i ' ' ? '
-5
e
P
V
gn ^e reversed. See footnote fa^fter
com
,P±8 thf ±!S&^ -, iAo«raAe C°Tntedafwl h regard to,stgn' are A,veragein Puted without reeard to »>- fi *^e Period varies among the series; however, for most
«
53 6
E'«« J! S? h
" ^*
Q|! /ter|y series- f|eures
P|aced the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed n plus o
minus amounts the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages. 9Figlures are placed in the last month of ^quarter.




Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indicators

I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(JUfe)

P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)

P

(Nov.] (Oct.)

T

(lay) (Fab.)
P T

42 n
*1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)

*30. Nonagri. placements, alt Indus, (thous.)

2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)

5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl insur. (thous.-inverted scale)

3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees-inverted scale)

4S

5©

51

gg

S3

54

Si

§6

SJ

58

§@

@©

©1

@2

(S3

64

'Mow to iead es^srts 1 i^d 2,' pag@ 4. teterisls (*) Idsnt'nfiis s^rfes on 'snort list*. Current date for tSs©sg ssriis are stowfs ®ss pgi 2®.'.




Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

JUNE

1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

[July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)

P

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

Formation of Business Enterprises

130120*38. Index of net bus. formation (1957-59-100)

110

£

3

v/3

13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)

*6. New orders, dur, goods indus. (bil. dol.

94. Construction contracts, total value {index:
1957-59-100; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol

1S48

49

50

SI

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

See low to ieaii Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk |*J identifies series on 'short list*. Current data for these series are shown on pages 29 and 30.




66

67 1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

J.UNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continuecl
Leading Indicators -Continued
Iff. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(July) (Apr,)
P T

(May) (Fab.)
P T

NH
New Investment Commitments-Continued
8-

11. Newicapital appropriatidns, mfg., 0 (bit. dbl.)

-/\J

24. New orders, mach. and equip, indtis. (bil. dot.

9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. mil. sq. ft.
of floor

1, Private nonfarm housing starts [ann. rate
millions; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

*29. New Wdg. permits, private
housing units (index: 1957-59=100]

1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list*. Current data for these series are shown on pag@ 30.




66

67 1S6S

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EC. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Inventory Investment and Purchasing




21. Change in bus. inventories, aft Indus., Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.]
+10-

-10

*31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories
ami. fate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg,-5-term)

j „ $

—i +20-i

37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
75

20. Change in book value, mfrs.' Inventories of materials and
supplies [ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
:

'

J
+OH

26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer

50-

-M_»^, J
54

5S

9®

5?.

58

59

SO

SI

62

63

64

|*J ItignttfDes series m 9sh0rt fisf. Current date 1w these series are shown on page 31.

6S

1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)

P

P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

I

(May) (Feb.)
P ' T

100-1
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies feporting slower deliveries

7550-

25J

25. Change iit unfilled orders, dur. foods Indus, (bil. doL; MCD moving avg.-4-term]

—2 -=

3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Sensitive Commodity Prices
1801

*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)

120100-

eo-

Z

*19, Stock prices, 500 common
stocks (index: 1941^43=101

30H

20

1948

49

5©

51

§2

53

54

55

56

57

§8

59

60

61

62

63

S@g 'How to tod Charts 1 and 2; pdgs4. Asterisk |*J identifies series on 'short list', Syrrgjst d^ta for these series arg sliswBi 013




64

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
3E. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFUS-Continued

[Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.j
P T

ate profits aft&r taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.

, profits to incotftt ofiginating, coraffate, all industries, Q (percent)

i:'-:t;;jr

m /\

18. Profits per d&llar of sales, mfg., Q (cents)

f17. Ratio,|fi|i$ to unit labor Hfl, mfg, (index: 1957-59=100)

1948

40

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

$@@ *H@w to Read Charts 1 and 2/ page 4! Asterisk |*| identifies series on 'short list*. Current data for these series are shown on page 32.




65

66

67 1968

Chart 1A

bed

JUNE

BASIC DATA

1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
21. MONEY AND CREDIT

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

P

(luly) (Apr.)
P I

T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

Flows of Money and Cred

85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bit. doi.

*113. Change i« consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.

+20 =

112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dot. MCD moving avg.-5-term)
+15-

0-5
-10 J
1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list. Current data for these series are shown on page 33.




65

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued

P

'•1 (Oct.)
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

(May! (Feb.)
P T

Flows of Money and Credit-Cont

110, Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.j

Credit Difficulties




14. liib. of bus,, faiteres [mil. doj.- inverted scale^
MCD moving avg.-6-term]

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans (percent-inverted scale)

bed

Chart IB

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P I




(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
I

(May) (Fab.)
P I

301. Nonagn. job openings unfilled, BES [thousands]

46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)

511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
Tfltft, bii. tnan-'hours)

. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions)

42. Total nonagri. employment (millions]

52

53

5§

S7

58

§9

60

61

©i 'sSsert list*, tmvmt ^ata far tiess s@

Chart 18

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

bed

Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

T

2

1

34-

5i7—

45, Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate [percent-inverted scale)

2a
S **
I

40. Unemployment rate, married miles (percent-inverted scale)

I. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
8§0'
800 760-

Comprehensive Production
larfn.
4in$NPln currenriillars.a lan Tare, on. OOLJ

700-

s

810 <

LJUUU rf¥i,JLjLJLJL.l,,

49

§0

51

. „
„

§£

§3

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

See <H®w to ^:
1 and a; page -V Asterisk |*j Identifies series on 'short list1. Current data for these series are shown on pages 34 and 35.


18

66

67 1968

M

li
w

Chart IB

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued |
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued

H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued

(July) [Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

[May) (Feb.)
P T

YiTTF
700-

Comprehensive Income

m
*52. Personal income jann. rate, bil. dol.)

6506009SO-

500»

*816. Mfg. and trade sales (bil. dol.)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

6©

67

I9S8

See How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk f * j identifies series on 'short list9. Current data for these series are ston on page 31.




19

Chart IB

BASIC DATA

JUNE

1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
IE. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

Backlog of Investment Commitments

96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bit. dol.)
15-

I PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
.
•«..nm^r^^vilm^.i,Jj,r^




115
110
101

55. Wholesale prices, Imfcistrial commodities (Index: 1957-59=100)

101
95-

90
115
110105 H

58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (index: 1957-59=100)

100-

95 H

80 -J

51

52

53

54

55

96

57

58

SS

eprrest data fer tSiese series are shown m page 3S . '

so

ei

ea

64

6S

67

1968

Chart 1B1

bed

JUNE

BASIC DATA

1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

i@yghly Coincident Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT

(July) (Aug.]
' T

IJyfy) (Apr.)
P
T

[Feb.j

Bank Reserves

93. Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale

Money Market Interest Rates




114. Treasury bill rate (percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

115. Treasury bond yields percent

=_^_,

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

J

11 J

Chart 1C

Wm BASIC DATA

JUNE

1967

bed

09 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
tiMI

Lagging Indicators

I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

Long Duration Unemployment

O-i

*502. Unemploymtrt ftte, persons unernpfojftf 15 weeks and «m (percent-inverted scale)

CO

o

i/1

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

*y
Jj

,2

SO-

70-

505. Mach, and equip, sales and bus. constr.
expend, (am. rate, bil. del.)

60-i

-

EC. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list*. Current data for these series are shown on page 37.


22


65

66

67

1968

§0-

Chart 1C

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

(May) [Feb.)
P T

68. Labor ;ost (curr. dol.) per do!, of
matDorp.GNP,Q jdol.)

cost per unit of output,
mfg. (index: 1957-159=100)—

SL MONEY AND CREDIT
1




* r"*

*72. Com. and M loans outstanding, weekly
com. banks [bil. dot.

Bank rates on short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)

582

533

§»4

555

5S6

597 588

599

660

61

62

63

64

65

67

1968

' page 4. Asterisk [*1 identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 38'..

23

Chart ID

BASIC DATA

bed

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
I .PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (Aug.)

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

T

!

:;

•

'

Mex: 1957-39=100)

!

•

T

a

^S^

: ^_^ —-""•"' '

115110-

'

10510095Qn-

3EH. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

L.
',#«$

•

;

,-

-

«

b. Official settlements basis

l, dol.-invertii§cale; 4-term moving avg.

1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.

24



60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

i

bed

Chart

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
301. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (Aug.)

T

P

(July) (Apr.)

T

P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

. ExDortsJtexc. military aid fbil. dol.:

. Export or&m durables exc. motor vehicles
(bil. ctyL; 4-term moving avg

1.00.80.6J

63. Export,.»E(ferSi nonelectrical maohinory
(inde>|fji7-594lOO; MCD moving avg.-4^term)

300-1
250200150J

3.0-i
2.02.0-

87. General imports (bil. dot.; M10 moving avg.-4-term);

1.5-

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.




60

61

62

63

64

66

67

1968

Chart ID

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July) [Apr.;
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.]
P T

surplus or deficit, m§|f| Income and p | acct, Q (ana rate, biL dot.)
«
+10-

^ PI

/

-10-20J

84, Fed. cash sur^us or deficit, Q |ann. rateJjL doj.j

•&3H

, led. cash payments to public, Q |m rate. b«. M

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2.; page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.

Digitized for 26
FRASER


60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart ID

bed

JUNE1967

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued

SOI. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

[May) (Feb.)
P T

70-

101. National defense purchases, fann. rate, bil. dol.l

SO-

4-

90, Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

99. New orders, defense products (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.




27

Chart IE

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
IX. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

[Nov.] (Oct.)
P
T

ance (index: 1957-59MOO!

Italy (Index: 1957-59=100)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 41.


28


62

63

64

65

66

67 1968

Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES

Leading Indicators

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Formation ]f Business
Enter prisei ..._

*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries

(Hours)

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Thous.)

*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

(Per 100 employees)

5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs 1
(Thous,)

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

*38. Index of net
13. Number of new
business formation business incorporations

(1957-59=100)

(Number)

\

1965
January
Febfuary
March

41.1
41.2
41.3

522
549
528

4.0
4.1
4.3

243
248
237

1.5
1.4
1.4

106.5
106.6
106.1

16,784
16,854
17,131

April
May
June

41.0
41.2
41.0

535
533
548

4.0
4.1
4.4

237
224
224

1.5
1.4
1.4

104.7
105.4
106.2

16,664
16,580
17,017

July
August
September

41.0
41.1
41.0

541
537
529

4.1
4.3
4.5

231
248
218

1.6
1.5
1.4

106.5
105.7
106.1

16,844
16,901
17,136

October
November
December

41.2
41.4
41.3

547
544
563.

4.5
4.9
4.8

209
212
2.06

1.3
1.3
1.4

105.5
106.1
106.9

16,994
17,606
17,625

1966
January
February
March

41.4
41.5
41,5

570
g^>600
589

4.9
4.9
5.2

222
219
182

1.2
1.2
1.2

109.1
109.6
B>109.6

B> 18,087
17,451
17,266

April
May
June

41.5
41.5
41-3

522
513
567

4.8
5.1
E>5.3

B>179
185
186

1.2
11
.
1.3

107.6
106.8
106.2

17,057
16,644
16,577

41.0
41.4
B>41-5

542
543
509

4.6
5.1
5.0

230
196
183

1.7
1.0
1.1

104.8
103.9
102.7

16,074
16,343
15,764

41.3
41.3
40*9

533
530
524

5.1
4.9
4.5

186
194
212

B> 1.0
11
.

1.3

103.3
100.6
101.4

16,233
16,206
16,583

41.0
40.3
40.4

534
519
497

•4.6
4.2
r4.2

203
242
256

1.4
1.5
/I- 7

102.2
103.2
103.3

16,703
15,987
16,244

40.5
P40.3

474
P448

P4.0 !
(NA)

263
234

pU-5
(NA)

104.0
(NA)

16,760
(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no s easonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby <g>. Currenthigh values are indicated by[jt>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (seriefe 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships o r order. Complete titles and sources are silown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk!*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicat es revised; V, preliminary; "e" estimated "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.



29

Table 2A

BASIC DATA
JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

New Investment Commitments
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)

Year
and
month

94. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value
(1957-59=100)

*10. Contracts 11, Newly approved capital
and orders for
plant awl equip- appropriations,
1,000 manufacment
turing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)

9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)

7. New private *29. Index of
nonfarm housing new private
units started1 housing units authorized by local
building permits3
(Ann. rate, thous.) (1957-59=100)

1965
January
February
March

21.27
21.13
21.71

137
140
141

4.72
4.67
4.84

5.00

3.96
3.80
4.02

52.94
54.89
54.41

1,417
1,468
1,465

112.3
108.2
109.9

April....
May.....
June

22.0 A
20.99
21.31

152
145
139

4.98
5.02
4.81

5 '.79

4.08
4.07
4.09

57.74
57.52
57.72

1,532
1,501
1,539

106.2
109.7
109.9

July
August
September

22.20
21.51
22.16

149
139
147

5.16
4.90
5.15

5.'85

4.35
4.16
4.15

56,68
52.00
62.97

1,447
1,409
1,436

108.9
108.4
104.1

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

22.42
22.39
23.40

147
141
153

5.13
5.05
5.35

6.*32

4.25
4.32
4.58

60.55
61.74
64.13

1,380
1,531
1,735

109.8
112.9
114.0

23. 58
23.74
24.89

152
157
158

5.46
5.71
5.66

6 .'36

4.45
4.58
4.59

62.29
B>70.42
67.99

1,585
1,349
1,538

110.7
105.6
111.9

April..
May
June

24.20
24.28
24.59

0>161
156
147

5.91
5.77
5.57

B> ?!ii

4.79
4.84
4.75

68.28
64.00
65.85

1,481
1,287
1,261

104.6
96.9
84.2

24.37
23.51
gO 25. 27

147
139
146

6.10
5.87
0> 6.28

6]o8

§£> 5.09
4.81
4.91

63.54
63.52
64.40

1,068
1,084
1,050

81,3
74.5
64.7

24.24
23.03
23.96

139
130
133

5.76
5.52
5.45

6'. 24

4.82
4.65
4.60

54.76
64.42
60.21

826
993
1,066

63.0
63.1
67.0

22.07
22.33
r22.06

126
143
149

5.40
5.34
r5.50

p5*57

4.54
4.24
r4.32

49.09
57.84
56.14

1,266
1»H7
isl,340

83.1
78.9
81.9

r22.32
P23.79

138
154

4.48
P4.72

59.04
53.16

rl,156
pi, 286

r90,7
P92.3

July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

,...
,...

,...

.

r5.40
p5.66

July
August
September
October
November .....
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by[B>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 1 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown oh the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

High value (1,753) was reached in January 1 6 .
94
High value ( 2 . ) was reached in February 1 6 .
146
94

3

30



Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA
JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Inventory Investment and Purchasing
21. Change in
37. Purchased ma26. Production
20. Change in
*31. Change in
business invenmaterials, perbook value of
book value of
terials, percent of
manufacturers'
tories after valmanufacturing
cent of compacompanies reportinventories of
uation adjustnies reporting
and trade invening higher inven1
commitments 60
ment, all indusmaterials and
tories, total
tories
tries
days or longer®
supplies2
(Ann. rate ,bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bit.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.doL) (Percent reporting)

Year
and
month

1965
January...
February
March
April
May
June

+?!6

+d!?

1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June....

:+10.4

:

67
65
62

72
70
66

+0.84
+0.50
+0.58

+0.7
+1.4
+3.1

62
63
61

62
64
62

+0.38
+0.32
+1.24

47
49
49

+0,9
+1.0

+2.0

63
63
63

60
66
72

+1.28
+0.78
+1.09

49
47
52

+0.9 I
+1.2
+0*8

68
67
68

74

+1.27
+1.31
+1.65

51
53
54

+3.8 ;
+3/:4 1

69

58
57

+19.4
+8.1
+11.7
+13.1

-<

+12.8
+17.7

+12.3

+5.3
+1.5
-0.5

54;

+
1
0 2
,

+3*9

+0.32
+0.81
+0.44

59
56

+6.3

*

: .+16.9

+13.6
+15.9
: +9,6

g> +16/4

+18.6
+17.6
g> +20.3

58
57

+12.5
+2.3
;
r+3.8

47
43
46

ptl.2
(NA)

37
39

:

+5.6
,
;:;

::

-:

.

,.';

./•.-.

:

58
58
54 :

+9^9

;

(Bit. dol.)

68
72
66

6i i

, +11,5
+12.2
^ +2.3

October
November
December

(Percent reporting)

65
65
68

:

57 j

+8.8
+8.4
.+7*8

July
August
September

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

+1.0
+0.4 r
+2.5

61
62:

+12.6
+3.8
+14,9

+9*5

32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries,®

56

.
,

::

73
73 1
72

+1.1

+5.4
+3.3 i

70
73
72

+1.49
+1.36
+1.70
+1.34
+0.64
|C> +2,30

70
64
57

+0.79

72
67
68

48
51
38

-0.99
-0.30
r-1.07

67
66 \

39
36

r-0.02
jH-0.89

+1.4
+2.0
+1.6

§£>> 75
73
70

+2.2
-1.0

r-0.3

(NA)

82
75
69

70
72

+4,0

p+1.1

B>86

:

,

;

-0.21
+0.24

•

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by Bt>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
BC>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available,
'•High value ( 3 was reached in November 1 6 .
6 )
94
High value ( 6 6 was reached in December 1961.
+.)

3




31

Table 2A

BASIC DATA
JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Sensitive Commodity
Economic Process
Prices

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

*19, Index of stock
*23. Index of industrial materialsprices® prices, 500 common
stocks ©

Year
and
month

(1957-59=100)

Profits and Profit Margins

Stock Prices

(1941-43=10)

*16. Corporate profits
after taxes

22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries

18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations

*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing

(Ann. rate, bil. dol )

(Percent)

(Cents)

(1957-59=100)

1965
January
February
March

110.6
110.7
113.2

86.12
86.75
86.83

43^8

13! 6

9^6

102.9
102.9
103.1

April
May
June

116.7
116.9
115.3

87.97
89.28
85.04

43^8

12^9

9^3

103.5
103.5
104.4

July
August
September

1H.6
115.2
114.8

84.91
86.49
89.38

44.1

12.9

9*.4

104.8
104.7
103.9

October
November
December

115.0
115.5
117.1

91.39
92.15
91.73

46^3

13^3

9.*5

103.8
103.8
104.8

48!?

B> 13*3

B> 9**

104.8
105.0
105.2

13.1

9.*3

104.8
105.2
105.3

1966
January
February
March

120.5
^
122.9
£>*123.5

April
May
June
July
August
September

IE>93.32
92.69
88.88

121.5
118.3
118.4

.

. October
November
December
1957
January
February
March
April
May
June

91.60
86.78
86.06

118.8
1 17
1.
108.9

85.84
80.65
77.81

48!2

'12]8

9^2

g> 105.9
105.3
104.7

106.3
105.9
105.8

77.13
80,99
81.33

48.1

12*.6

9.'o

104.6
103.6
103.6

106.8
105.2
102.5

84.45
87.36
89.42

r45*6

rl!>lo

8*5

102.4
rl01.9
rl01.3

100.1
99.5
1
99. 6

3

90.96
92.59
92.22

fi>48!7

rl01.3
pl01.4

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values areindicated by (B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Average, for June 19, 20, and 21.
^Average for June 20," 21,.and 22.


32


Table 2A

BASIC DATA
JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT
Credit Difficulties

Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1965
January
February
March

33. Net change *113, Net change 112. Change in
85. Change in
business loans
total U.S. money in morgagedebt in consumer insupply
held by fin. inst. stallment debt
and life insurance companies1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

110. Total private borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

14, Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of busi- rate, 30 days
ness failures3
and over, total
installment loans3

(Mil. dol.)

+8.76
+8.76
+7.44

0.00
+0.72
+3.72

+20.57+18.80
+21.01

+7.38
+7.16
+7.70

+9.90
+12.67
+11.34

62,166

84.54
107.57
146.29

April
May
June

+8.16
+4.08
+10.56

+5.28
-2.28
+7.44

r+20.33
r+19.64
r+23.06

§D> +8.94
+7.87
+7.14

+7.68
+10.38
+10.09

69,232

79.51
139.09
135.66

July
August
September

+9-72
+10.80
+10,68

+5.16
+4.44
+8.04

r+20.08
p+21.20
r+21.88

+8,69
+7.87
+8.23

+14.12
+5.39
+7.87

64,688

120.64
128.98
108.56

October
November
December

+12.60
+8.52
+11.52

+8.04
+2.88
+11.64

+20.76
r+21.73
r+22.21

+7.44
+8.39
+7.61

+7.45
+6.96
+5.30

67,836

85.67
66.65
128.06

+6.48
+3.36
+7.92

+5.76
+1.44
+7.80

+22.96
r+22.73
r+23,65

+7.16
+6.46
+7.79

+13.72
+6.24
rf9. 06

66,924

111.67
94.59
98.73

+13.20
+3.361
+10.08

+11.28
-4.92
+6.36

+20.52
r+16.90
+15.17

+6.37
+5.92
+6.59

r+8.58
r+9.20
+17.69

§D> 77,784

106.93
92.41
111.23

July
August
September

+0.36
+4.80
+5.16

-10.56
0.00
+6.36

+13.09
+12.82
+11.47

+6.77
+7.22
+5.70

K> +21.11
'
+3.28
+0.67

56,320

62.84
159.29
128.77

October
November
December

-4.44
-1.44
+8.52

-6.36
-2.88
+7.80

1+10.14 j
r+10.07
+7.15

+4.56
+5.33
+3.85

+5.93
+2.63
+0.14

50,524

128.02
116.90
194.09

-4.92
+6.60 1
+12.72
+5.64
g^> +16.20 g£> rl6.92

+14.16
+12.13
r+11.93

+3.36
+2.59
+3.17

+6.01
+0.86 j
+6.83 j

-4.92
EH-13.92

p+11.84
(NA)

+2.56
(NA)

1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

+4.56,
p+14.16

+9.25
p+1.63

p60,37£

118.61
111.23
108.87
110.80
93.00

(Percent)

1.77
1.71
l.U

l!83

1.83
l!<S5

l!?3
.1.78
1.76
1.76
1.79
1.75

1.82
1.90

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[B>-forseriesthatmove counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502),\current low values are indicated by
gt>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p"l preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
3
High value (2-4.02)- was reached in October 1 6 .
93
High value ( . 7 was reached in May 1 6 .
15)
9 3
3
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1 6 .
9 3




33

Table 2B

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Roughly Coincident Indicators

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment

Job Vacancies

511. Man-hours
in nonfarm establishments, atl
employees

*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments

42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey

"43. Unemployment rate, total

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1

40, Unemployment rate,
married mates

(1957-59=100)

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

301. Nonagricul- 46. Index of
help-wanted adtural job openvertising in
ings unfilled
newspapers
(Thous.)

1965
January
February
March

268
267
270

137
145
148

123.22
123.98
124.44

59,489
59,777
60,072

65,841
65,863
66,150

4.8
5.0
4.7

3.3
3.3
3.2

2.7
2.6
2.5

April
May
June

279
285
280

143
145
146

124.11
124.68
124.75

60,152
60,363
60,623

66,109
66,169
66,582

4.8
4.6
4.6

3.1
3.0
2.9

2.5
2.5
2,4

July
August
September

285
313
338

145
152
160

124.96
125.87
126,14

60,841
61,021
61,180

67,061
66,961
67,017

4.5
4.4
4.4

3.0
3.0
2.9

2.3
2.5
2.2

October
November
December
1966
January.. . . , .
February...-.
March

354
359
378

168
181
186

126.59
127.49
128.30

61,437
61,864
62,241

67,197
67,681
67,950

4.3
4.1
4.0

2.7
2.6
2.6

2.1
2.0
1.9

128.70
129.75
130.72

62,469
62,811
63,247

68,266
68,186
68,153

3.9
3.7
3.8

2.6
2.6
2.3

1.9
1.9
1.9

April
May/.
June

430
425
421

189
185
184

130.07
130.26
131.66

63,350
63,517
63,983

68,343
68,351
68,749

3.7
3.9
3.9

2.1
2.1
2.1

1.8
1.8
1.9

420
426
g>438

186
189
189

131.44
132.18
131.84

64,072
64,199
64,168

68,920
69,206
69,309

3.9
3.8
3.7

2.4
2.4
2.1

2.0
2.0
1.9

433
417
406

193
194
193

132.26
133.12
133.08

64,466
64,823
65,076

69,420
70,005
69,882

B>3l5
3.7

g> 2.0
2.1
2.4

1.9
1.7
1.7

393
374
364

189
190
184

B> 134.03
133.52
133.51

65,381
g>r65',600

70,240
R>70,247
69,892

3.7
3.7
3.6

2.4
2.4
2.6

1.7
B> 1.6
1.7

353
P350

181
pl72

r!32.7l
P132.58

r65,479
p65,435

70,020
69,637

3.7
3.8

2.6
2.6

1,9
1.9

July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

392
403
428

184
191
£> 201

July

August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by |j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
a
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

34




Table 2B

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
MinoEeonomie Process
Year
and
month

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Comprehensive Production
49, Gross national product
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bif.dol.)

1965
January
February
March

Gompraheitsive Income

*50. Gross na- *47. Index of intional product dustrial producin 1958 dollars tion
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(1957-59=100)

*52. Personal
income

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

53, Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
"816. Manufacturing and ,
trade sales

(Mil. dot.)

57. Final sales *54. Sales of re(series 49 minus tail stores
series 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

138.8
139.6
HO. 9

516.7
517.3
520.1

137.0
138.5
139.3

76,867
76,558
78,734

65l!4

22,936
23,076
22,856

ui.o
Hi. 8

138.5
140.0
141.0

78,330
78,643
78,805

665^3

143.1

522. 5 :
528.0
532.2

22,849
23,317
23,322

618^2
* *•

.144.3
144.9
144.1

535. 4 ,
537.8
552.5

141.3
142.4
142.7

80,776
79,685
79,610

67?! 8

23,668
23,585
23,753

704^4

631 .2

145.5
H6.7
H9.0

547.2
553.2
558.2

144.2
146.5
147. 8

80,655
82,214
83,591

694^6

24,330
24,647
24,704

721.2

6^6! 5

150.6
152.4
153.7

560.2
564.7
569.0

149.3
151.1
152.6

84,727
84,530
86,991

712^3

25,081
25,049
25,536

April
May
June

732^3

643! 5

153.9
155.3
156.5

570.5
573-0
577.2

153.2
154.0
155.3

85,455
85,426
86,957

726! 6

24,949
24,475
25,394

July
August
September

745.' 3

649 '.9

157.2
158.0
157.7

580.0
585.4
590.0

155.4
157.1
158.0

86,678
86,995
86,775

735^4

25,362
25,572
25,703

759 !3

U>657',2

158.9
158.6
g> 159.0

594.4
598.5
601.8

158.9
159.7
160.2

87,066
_ 86,699
g> 87,875

742*. 9

25,550
25,610
25,368

g> 763*7

656 !?

158.1
156,4
156.4

161.2
160.2
160.6

87,386
86,299
r 87, 45 8

£> 75s!i

25,687
25,470
r25,739,

160.2
P159.5

p86,953
(NA)

660 Is
•* * *

600 ! 3

April
May
June

672.9

607^8

July
August.
September

686!i

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

r!56.Q
P155.5

607..1
609.3
•612.7
614.1
fi>p6l6,9

fc>,

r25,923
||>p26,069

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[jD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502),-current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "o". preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and M NA", not available.




35

Table 26

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

96, Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing

55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities®

(Bil. dol.)

Year
and
month

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)

1965
January
February
March

54.28
55.09
55.53

Apri 1
May
June

56.37
56.88
57. 45

July
August
September

57.83
58.15
59. -38

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March.,

60.66
61.44
62.53

April
May
June

68.25
69*61
71.31

July
August
September

72/65
73.29
75.59

October
November
December

76.38
76.17
g£>76.42

1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

63.80
65.11
66.76

75.43
75.13
r74* 06
r74.04
P74.93

58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ©

MONEY AND CREDIT

Bank
Reserves

Money Market Interest Rates

93. Free
reserves ©

114. Treasury
bill rate ®

116. Corporate bond
yields ®

(Mil. dol.) -

(Percent)

(Percent)

115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields® bond yields ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

101.8
101.8
101.8

+106
+36
-75

3.83
3.93
3.94

4.45
4.45
4.49

4.14
4.16
4.15

3.06
3.09

13*. 85

101.9
101.9
102.0

15.26

102.1
102.3
102.5

102.1
102.4
103.0

-105
-ISO
-182

3.93
3.90
3.81

4.48
4.52
4.57

4.15
4.14
4.14

3.15
3.17
3.24

16* 37-

102.5
102.7
102.7

103.1
103.2
103.2

-174
-134
-144

3.83
3.84
3.91

4.57
4.66
4.71

4.15
4,19
4.25

3.27
3.24
3.35

17*72

102.8
103.2
103.2

103.4
103.7
104.1

-146
-83
-2

4.03
4.08
4.36

4.70
4.75
4.92

4.28
4.34
4.43

3,40
3.46
3.54

18' 59

103.5
103.8
104.0

•104.4
104.9
105.0

-44
-107
-246

4.60
4.67
4.63

4.93
5.09
5.33

4.43
4.61
4.63

3.52
3.64
3.72

20.31

104.3
104.7
104.9

105.1
105.5
105.6

-268
-352
-352

4-61
4.64
4.54

5.38
5.55
5.67

4.55
4.57
4.63

3.56
3.65
3.77

106.0
106.4
106.4

-362
-390
-368

4.86
4.93
5.36

5.81
6.04
g>6.14

4.75
fc>4.80
4.79

3.95
4.12

20 '.54

105.2
105.2
105.2

se>4.i2

g>2o'.72

105.3
105.5
105,5

106.3
106.2
106.2

B> -431
-222
-165

£>5.39
5.34
5.01

6.04
6.11
5,98

4.70
4.74
4.65

3.94
3.86
3.86

p2(X32

105.8
106.0
106.0

106.4
fc>106.4
106.3

-16
-4
4-236

4.76
4.55
4.29

5.53
5.35
5.55

4.40
4.47
4,45

3.54
3.52
3.55

+175
pf266

3.85
3.64

5.59
5.90

4.51
4.76

3.60
3.89

106.0
g> 106.0

106.2
106.3

3,18

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by[jt>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[JD>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

36



Table 2C

beef

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Investment Expenditures

Inventories

*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total

505. Machinery and equipment sales arid business
construction expenditures

*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

(Percent)

Year
and
month

*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
book value

(Bil.dol.)

1965
January
February
March

1.2
11
.

49.* 06

60.01
60.66
63.24

112.10
112.42
113-66

22.36
22-43
22.51

April
May
June

1.1
1.0
1.1

50^35

63.12
62.73
62.87

114.39
115.09
115.74

22.29
22.36
22.34

July
August
September

0.9
1.0
1.0

52*. 75

64,81
62.89
65.27

116.70
117.71
117.91

22.55
22.53
22.61

October...
November
December
1966
January
February
March

0.9
0.9
0.9

55.'35

65.74
67.47
69.94

118.43
119.28
120.90

22.66
22.86
23.14

0.8
0.8
0.8

58]66'

70.32
69.74
72.67

121.57
122.54
123.63

23.45
23.62
23.81

April
May
June

0.8
0.7
0.6

6o!l6

71,34
70.52
72.01

124.70
126.18
127.58

23.84
24.07
24.14

July
August
September

0.6 :
0.6
0.6

61.25

73.57
73.39
74.39

128.71
130.04
130.84

24.50
24.67
24.88

October

0.7
0.6
0.6

|£> 62*.86

74.18
73.84
74V72

132.39
133.86
135.55

25.08
25.54
26.00

0.6
0.6
0.6

6l'.65

B> 75.80
75.44
r75.l6

136.59
136. 78
rl37.09

26.40
26.67
r26.83

P72.87
(NA)

fc^P13?'1?
**^ (NA)

s^K

November

December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July....
August
September
October
November
December




1.1

0.6

&> °*5

ra6l.55

a62!80

a63.60

37

Table 2C

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Lagging Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

MONEY AND CREDIT

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

1965
January
February
March

68. Labor cost !(cur.
idol.) per unit of gross
product (1958dol.)f
nonfinancial corporations

*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing

66. Consumer install*
ment debt

(Dollars)

Year
and
month

(1957-59=100)

(Mil. dol.)

.662

Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages

Outstanding Debt

Unit Labor Costs

*72. Commercial and
industrial loans out*
standing, weekly reporting large commercial banks

(Mil. dol.)

98.9
98.9
98.7

60,069
60,666
61,308

44,175
45,205
46,170

98.6
98.9
98.7

62,053
62,709
63,304

46,793
47,497
48,764

April
May
June

.666

July
August
September

.665

98.4
98.6
99.3

64,026
64,684
65,370

49,129
49,840
50,478

October
November
December

.665

99.6
99.9
99.3

65,990
66,689
67,323

50,946
51,346
52,174

99.6
99.9
99.8

67,920
68,458
69,107

53,223
53,715
r54,522

100.3
100.3
100.3

69,638
70,131
70,680

r55,118
56,102
57,842

100.1
101.0
101.6

71,244
71,846
72,321

59,348
58,982
59,349

101.6
102.5
102.5

72,701
73,145
73,466

59,879
60,010
59,732

103.9

73,746
73,962
74,226

60,754
60,525
61,167

74,439
(NA)

K> 62,407
*^ p6l,898

*67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities®

118. Mortgage yields,
residential®

(Percent)

(Percent)

4.' 97

5.45
5.45
5.45

4.' 99

5.45
5.45
5.44

5 '.66

5.44
5.45
5*46

5!27

5.49
5.51
5.62

5.*55

5.70
(NA)
6.00

5." 82

(NA)
6.32
6.45

6.30

6.51
6.58
6.63

8>63i

^ (NA)
§D>6.81
6.77

1966
January
February
March

.673

April
May
June

.684

July
August
September

.692

October
November
December

.696

1967
January
February
March.
April
May .:
June

§£> r.712

r 104^4
f£>rl04.9
r!04.8
p!04.8

fi>

^.'i^

6.62
6.46
6.35
6.29
6.44

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ®. Current high values -are indicated by[B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[JD>-. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)'are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
3
This figure is based on data for 35 cities and refers to the middle of the month, therefore it is not comparable with earlier
figures.

38




Table 2D

bed

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

Major
PRICES, COSTS
Economic Process AND PROFITS
Comprehensive
Minor
Economic Process Retail Prices
81. Index of consumer prices ®
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)

1965
January.
February
March

108.9
108.9
109.0

April
May
June

109,3
109.6
110.1

July
August
September

110.2
110.0

110. a

October
November
December

FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

Foreign Trade and Payments
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Revised1 *
Revised1

88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)

(Mil.dol.)

86. Exports,ex- 861. Manufactur- 862. Index of
export orders,
qluding military ers' new orders
aid shipments, for export, durable nonelectrical
goods except mo- machinery*
total
tor vehicles and 1
parts ®
|
(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(1957-59=100)

87. General imports, total

(Mil. dot.)

-818

-834

+28.5
+16.7
+878.0

1,227.5
1,622.7
2,738.9

603
729
694

228
235
242

1,199.0
1,606,0
1,860.9

;+199

+239

+595.0
+502.7
+386.5

2,406.3
2,299.3
2,234.7

720
718
899

238
241
238

1,811.3
1,796.6
1,848.2

-457

+207

+557.7
+503.6
+433,3

2,299.5
2,328.9
2,291.3

829
785
722

241
245
231

1,741.8
1,825.3
1,858.0

110, A
110.6
111.0

-259

-916

+464.5
+437.5
+451.1

2,349*3
2,378.1
2,362.2

705
891
984

228
234
233

1,884.8
1,940.6
1,911.1

1966
January
February
March

111.0
111.6
112.0

-651

-443

+326.6
+368.6
+500.9

2,274.2
2,373.7
2,568.6

852
849
904

237
201
227

1,947.6
2,005.1
2,067.7

Apri 1
May
June

112.5
112.6
112.9

-122.

-175

+250.0
+348.2+354. 5

2,358.9
2,410.8
2,489.5

749
976
1,078

195
217
217

2,108.9
2,062.6
2,135.0

July
August
September

113.3
113.8

-165

+861

+251.4
+342.4
+240.4

2,456.0
2,455.0
2,541.6

805
826
1,059

201
199
200

2,204.6
2,112.6

October
November
December

H4.5
114.6
1H-7

-419

-Iff

+320.3
+294.7
+183.5

2,582.7
2,486.2
2,4H.7

865
785
1,200

240
235
225

2,262.4
2,191,5
2,231.2

1967
January.
February
March

114.7
114.8
115.0

-544

-1,822

+324.6
+397.1
r+384.4

2,620.2
2,601.2
r2, 569.1

891
833
r905

234
196
r252

2,295.6
2,204.1
2,1JU~7

r+435.4:
+426.2

r2,659.4
2,544.8

p769

p214
(NA)

2,224.0
2,118.6

April
May
June

114.1

115.3
(KA)

(NA)

2,301.2

July

August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement: Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back,cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page v.




39

Table 20

BASIC DATA

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Federal Government Activities
95. Federal
84. Federal
surplus (+)
cash surplus (+]
ordeficit(-), or deficit (-)
national income and product account
. (Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
Revised1

1965

101. National 91. Defense
83. Federal 82. Federal
cash receipts cash payments defense pur- Department obchases, cur- ligations, total
from the pub- to the public
rent dollars
lic
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
Revised1

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

(Mil. dot.)

99. New
90. Defense
Department ob- orders, defense
products
ligations,
procurement

(Mil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

92. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms

(Mil. dot.)

Revised1

January
February
March

+4^5

-i'.s

118'.9

12o! 7

48.2

4,278
3,839
4,624

1,005
700
1,355

2.37
2.44
2.46

1,830
1,628
1,874

April
May
June

+4** 4

+i!6

130.6

129! 6

49^1

4,593
4,630
4,520

1,444
1,402
1,254

3.24
2.46
2.58

2,926
2,025
2,438

July
August
September

-2*. 5

-sis

122.6

128.4

50.7

4,258
5,223
5,276

1,128
1,741
1,732

2.62
2.81
3,45

2,699
2,770
2,465

-0.2

-9.*7

122.7

132i4

52^5

4,962
4,896
5,669

1,733
1,212
1,882

3.28
2.57
2.53

2,566
2,679
2,938

+2. 3

-12.9

134.7

147.6

54.6

5,100
5,179
5,879

1,639
1,736
1,904

3.40
3.04
3.38

2,755
2,830
2,640

April
May
June

+14.7

158.6

H3.*9

57*.!

6,444
5,447
7,084

2,109
1,620
2,415

3.30
2,91
3.68

3,183

+3*8

July
August
September

-6! 5

-14.* a

145.4

160.2

62.6

4,998
7,215
6,579

1,753
2,251
1,866

3.50
3.16
4.67

October
November
December

-3^6

-Zii

147.2

15li3

65!5

6,059
5,989
6,023

1,931
1,723
1,937

3.31
2.73
3.36

3,303
2,967
3,500

-i'.i

156.' 5

69.7

6,518
6,595
6,343

2,296

155 i
i

2,140
1,903

2.85
3.33
3.24

3>109
3,880
2,662

6,211
(NA)

1,715
(NA)

r3.33
P3.78

2,784

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

2,968
3,545
3,912

.

2,978
3,380

1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

r-lo'/5

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.

40



Table 2E

bed

BASIC DATA
JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
International Comparisons

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES

Industrial Production Indexes
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production

Year
and
month

122. United
123. Canada,
index of Indus* Kingdom, index
trial production of industrial
production

121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial production

125. West Germany, index of
industrial production

(1957-59=100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)

1965
January
February
March

139
140
141

142
141
143

130
129
128

146
146
144

April
May
June

141
142
143

142
142
143

128
129
128

146
148
148

July
August
September

144
145
144

144
147
148

130
129
128

148
148
149

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

146
147
149

149
151
153

130
130
131

151
152
154

r!54
155
156

April
May
June

154
155
156

July
August
September

.....

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

1
i

156
155

;
:

149
154

154
155

126. France, 127. Italy, index 128. Japan, inindex of indus- of industrial pro- dex of industrial
trial production duction
production

(1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100)

(1957-59 ±=100)

137
139
139

166
169
166

239
239
244

140
139
142

169
•175
176

241
238
244

178
176
178

243
240
247

'

151
153

;

155

144
144
144

150
150
151

156
154
154

147
147
150

179
184
183

241
244
246

131
130
133

151
151
153

156
155
160

146
149
151

186
186
189

252
251
255

rl57
156
156

131
130
r!30

153
153
154

160
157
rl60

150
150
152

189
196'
196

259
262
268

157
158
158

rl55
rl57
r!58

132
r!31
129

154
153
153

r!57
r!54
155

154
154
154

196
r200
201

274
277
283

159
159
159

r!60
160
r!6o

128
r!28
rl29

152
152
153

r!54
153
151

153
156
156

r!99
201
,201

284
290
296

158
156
156

159
*158
p!58

129
128
p!29

152
152
rl5i>

r!50
rl49
148

156
r!56
p!56

r200
206
p20'8

303
r299
306

156
P156

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

pi 50
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

P313
(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,




41




Section TWO

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES

charts and tables

DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS9 FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries

Profits—700 companies
Sfock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—18 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




Table 3

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

bed

DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Business cycle peak

Current expansion

'Feb.
J?67t

«».

1967;

'May <

for.
,1967

iM

Nov.
1948

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

LEADING INDICATORS1
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months ...........
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month

20
3

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

30
0

\
2

21
*4
2

18
1

21
4
2

19

28

24
I
1
1
2

26
4

29
0

29
0

2

4
2

14
5
1
2
1
2

4
1

*1

1
2

I
2
2

30
7

*1
21
0

30
0

24
0

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1

7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

1
4
3
1
3
2
6
21
29

1
1
3
3
1
3
2
3
4
21
19

' 2
3
3
1
3
2
3
1
3

3
20
15

21
14

Apr.
1953

Feb.
1960

Apr.
1957

I
4
1

3
3
2
3
2

3
1
1
1
5
3

**3

4

'*7

3

4
3

18
17

18
1
1

4
4

21
19

21
14

6th month before business cycle peak

3d month before business cycle peak

Aug.
1948

5

5
3
1
2
2
3
1

Jan,
1953

May
1948

Jan,
1957

Nov.
1959

LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
3 months
2 months
1 month

17
1

7
5

1

3
1
5
1
2
2

4
1

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

24
4

26
8

25
1
2

1

18
4
1
1
1
1
1
2

1
1
2
1
5
1

*i
3

29
0

29
0

24
12

3
2
1
1
5
1
4
2
7

26
27

22

"i
2
1
2
1

29
3

8
7
2
4
4
1
1
1
1

29
3

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
*
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

2
1
1
2

3
1
2

*i
4
8

6
8

18
44

18
44

"i
1
5
* ••
5
4
2

21
10

2
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
8

21
38

2

"i
i

1

*i

4

2
3
3
6

2
4
10

2
I
10
4

18
33

18
56

21
19

2
6
3
1
3
2
4

21
19

NOTE: All quarterly series are omitted from the distribution. The number of series included varies because some series are not available for all cycles and because
those series which reached a peak during the Korean War are omitted from the 1953 distribution.

44



bed

CHART2A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.
Percent

01. Avg. workweeklpTod. wkrs., mfg,-21 Indus

ur. goods Indus.-36 mdus.

011. Newly approved capital appropriatioss-17 indus.T NfCBl(3-Q span— 1-Q span,

of NY,; percent repirftt

higher profits-

, Stock prices, 50f aommon stocks- 77 Indus.

023. Industrial materials prices-13 Indus, mtis.

05. Initial claims, State unemcl. insur.-47 areas (inverted)

1948

4S

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2; page 4. Currant data for ttosa series are stiowft m pages 48 and 40.




SI

CHART 2B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

bed

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes

Duly) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
T

P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

(May) (Feb.]
P T

Percent

D47. Industrial production-24 Indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span-

10080-

0-

058. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-22 Indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span

054 Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores |9-mo. span— 1-mo. span

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See !H0w to Heat! Charts 1 ami 2/ page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 50.

46



60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

CHART 2C (

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

[July) |Apr.:
P T

(July) (Aug.j
P
T

T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Percent

Actual
Anticipated
D35. m sales, all n^^OO^rnffflfes J4-Q span)

036. New orders, dur. goods itfrs.-400 companies (4-0 span)

048. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups (4-Q span)

D48. Change in total carloadings
{millions of cars-4-Q span)

D61. New plant and equipment expend.-17-22 Indus. (1-Q span)

Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey

Actual
1st Q 1966-lst Q 1967
2d Q 1965-2d Q 1966
4th Q 1%6-lst Q 1967

035, 036 (Mar. 1967)
048 (Mar. 1967)
D61 (May 1967)

U.,,i a i
1948

49

,j - L .
50

51

:

U' ' : -—-'Li- .

, ,

52

55

53

54

Anticipated

, .^-ilL
56

57

' '
58

3d Q 1966-3d Q 1967
2d Q 1966-2d Q 1967
2d Q 1967-3d Q 1967

^sr59

60

'> -L - J
61

62

..

, _«,1

63

64

,J i
6S

,1 ' . ' >
66

67

>

n
1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 'I? page4, Current data for these series are shown on page 51.




47

Table 4A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indexes

Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)

Year
and
month

1 -month span

9-month span

06. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span

9-month span

Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span

3-quarter span

1965
January
February
March

61.9
57.1
76.2

83.3
81.0
78.6

48.6
38.9
63.9

77.8
75.0
77.8

76

April
May
June

19.0
81.0
28.6

61.9
47.6
54.8

50.0
44.4
58.3

68.1
66.7
68.1

71

76
*.*

July
August
September

52.4.
59.5
40.5

71.4
64-3
81.0

59.7
41.7
61.1

91.7
83.3
80.6

53

82

71.4
81.0
54.8

95.2
92.9
83.3

61.1
55.6
76.4

81.9
86.1
83.3

59

71

57.1
69.0
40.5

83.3
76.2
31.0

30.6
50.0
84.7

75.0
75.0
66.7

65

76

April
May
June

50.0
50.0
33.3

35.7
45.2
35.7

41.7
50.0
51.4

72.2
58.3
59.7

53

53

July
August
September

21.4
61.9
64.3

38.1
9.5
19.0

50.0
59.7
37.5

55.6
44.4
41.7

32

41

October
November
December

45.2
40.5
19.0

9.5
-19.0
16.7

50.0
44.4
55.6

36.1
*31.9
r30.6

41

P35

1967
January
February
March

69.0
7.1
76.2

pll.9

31.9
38.9
55.6

P38.9

Ptf

!

October
November
December

i

1966
January
February
March

I

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

48



r54.8
p23.8

r48.6
p58.3

65
*».

bed

Table 4A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading indexes-Continued

D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(around 700 corpora- 1
(13 industrial materials;
stocks (77 industries)®
tions)

Year
and
month

1-quarter span

1965
January
February
March

1-month span

57

i. *

9-month span

1-month span

9-month span

D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)
1 -month span

9-month span

92.2
81.8
64.3

80.5
58.4
51.9

53.8
30.8
69.2

69.2
76.9
61.5

24.5
57.4
66.0

78.7
78.7
59.6

April
May
June

56

70. 8
66.9
0.0

58.4
72.7
67.5

76.9
53.8
57.7

69.2
53.8
53.8

61.7
59.6
51.1

66.0
61.7
78.7

July
August
September

57

24.7
79.9
81.2

61.0
59.1
63.6

46.2
42.3
50.0

46.2
46.2
46.2

34.0
38.3
78.7

80.9
87.2
70.2

60

66.9
70.1
57.1

60.4
67.5
70.1

15.4
34.6
61.5

46.2
38.5
53.8

57.4
44.7
51.1

62.8
91.5
95.7

59

74.0
43.7
14.3

51.9
43.5
37.7

61.5
76.9
46.2

53.8
61.5
61.5

38.3
44.7
83.0

91.5
74.5
44.7

April
May...
June...

59

63.6
3.9
23.4

22.1
11.7
6.5

30.8
42.3
46.2

53.8
30.8
15.4

53.2
45.7
57.4

68.1
76.6
78.7

July....
August.
September

50

33.3
6.5
3.9

9.7
22.1
20.1

61.5
26.9
0.0

7.7
7.7
7.7

17.0
70. 3
80.9

80.9
34.0
34.0

54

25.3
88.3
59.7

47.4
58.4
66.2

19.2
30.8
57.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

36.2
46.8
27.7

23.4
17.0
r46.8

48

90.9
92.2
61.0

85.7

46.2
53.8
23.1

0.0
15.4

55.3
17.0
46.8

27.7

..

October
November
December

1966
January
February
March

,

October
November
December

1967
- January
February
March
April
May
June

76.0
74.0

X

23.1
61.5
69.2

1

r55.3
54.3

July.
August. ,
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components risin&and are centered within j£a_nsLiimonth indexes are placed on latest month andjjipnth.indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. TTie V indicates revised; V, preliminary;,
and "NA". not available. Unadjusted series are indicated bv ®
1
Average for JWeTl9Y 20, and~21.




49

Table 4B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes

Year
and
month

D41, Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span

D47, Index of industrial production'
(24 industries)

D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries).®

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

1-month span

9-month span

1965
January
February
March

73.3
70.0
86.7

81.7
78.3
80.0

79.2
70.8
77.1

83.3
85.4
87.5

72.7
52.3
65.9

81.8
86.4
81.8

63.0
65.2
30.4

80.4
87.0
87.0

Apr j|
May
,*
June

63-3
63.3
88.3

80,0
81. .7
75,0

56.2
70.8
91.7

83.3
83.3
79.2

72.7
75.0
61.4

79.5
70.5
63.6

54.3
87.0
43.5

73.9
87.0
87.0

July

88.3
70.0
71,7

88.3
91.7
93.3

81.2
75.0
54.2

87.5
91.7
87.5

50.0
56.8
61.4

65.9
65.9
77.3

80.4
47.8
73.9

95.7
91.3
95.7

August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

88.3
93.3
86.7

90.0
95.0
93.3

79.2
83.3
87.5

87.5
89.6
100.0

70.5
70.5
70.5

88.6
90.9
90.9

78.3
78.3
37.0

95.7
95.7
91.3

85.0
85.0
91.7

95.0
91.7
86.7

70.8
70.8
87.5

95.8
91.7
87.5

79.5
75.0
72.7

88.6
95.5
93.2

76.1
65,2
60.9

82.6
84.8
78.3

April
May
June

73.3
76.7
91.7

85.0
81.7
73.3

64.6
58.3
87.5

70.8
75.0
62.5

70.5
86.4
75.0

95.5
95.5
86.4

43.5
30.4
95.7

78.3
82.6
78.3

July,
August
September

48.3
73.3
23.3

75.0
75.0
71.7

45.8
60.4
39.6

64.6
58.3
52.1

72.7
54.5
47.7

72.7
72.7
63.6

47.8
47.8
60.9

76.1
65.2
82.6

October..
November
December
1967

75.0
88.3
63.3

83.3
70.0
68.3

60,4
50.0
58.3

62.5
r47,9
r39.6

63.6
63.6
54*5

63.6
72.7
72.7

43.5
69.6
41.3

87.0
r78.3
r82.6

January
February
March

73.3
36.7
r51.7

56.7
p35,0

33.3
r27.1
r43*8

r41.7
P37.5

77.3
72.7
56.8

63.6
68.2

87.0
39.1
r43.5

P 65.2

April
May.
June

r40.0
p40.0

r45.8
P29.2

47.7
56.8

r56.5
P37.C

July
August
September ,...,...
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month Jhnonth indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Tables
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary;"and "NA", not available. Unadjusted<series are indicated by ®.
I *

50



Table 4C

bed

JUNE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1967

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes

D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies}® ;

D48, Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups) ®

D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures rSTndustrfes)

4-quarter span

Year
and
month

D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies);® 1
4-quarter span

4-quarter span

1-quarter span

Anticipated

Actual

1965
January
February
March

|

Anticipated

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

Actual

Anticipated

56.2

75.0

*88

*84

63^2

84! 2'

'90

'&

*87

73^7

73.7

+28

'•89

*91

*88

*90

73^7

89!$

+18

*87

*91

*85

'89

(NA)

84-! 2

+20

April
May
June

*84

*88

*82

'-83

78.*9

'+1

July
August
September

'•72

'34

/6*8

*82

78^9

-50

*84

"ao

52.'6

p-88

*82

50.0

•+20

*88

65. -6

55.6

''88

37.5

+25

*88

71.9

55.6

84.2

62.5

83.3

63 'a

84.4'

83.3

'*4

65.6

75.0

*90

68.8

83.3

*88

65.6

75.0

*90

*78

April .,
May
June
July
August
September

"...
'

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

October
November
December

1967
January . . .
February
March
April
Mav
June
July
August
September

r41.7

58.3

October
November . < . . >
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle Quarter; 1-ouar sr indexes jire
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and'TIA" not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by i®.]




51

1*1*5*

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

JUNE 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data

1967

1966
Diffusion index title and components

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Jan,

Feb.

Mar.r

Apr.

May P

Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
4
- Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products ...... ......
Leather and leather products

41.5

41.5

41.3

41.0

41.4

41.0

40.3

40.4

40.5

40.3

42.2
41.3
41.6
42.1
41.8
42.4
43.7
41.4
43.4
42.0
40.0

42.4
41.4
42.0
41.8
42.2
42.4
43.8
41,3
42.2
42.4
40.3

42.1
40.5
41.8
41.9
42.0
42.3
43.8
41.2
42.3
42.0
40.1

42.7
40.6
41.0
41.5
41.6
42.1

42.1
40.3
40.8
42.1
41.8
42.3
43.6
40.8
41.7
41.7
40.0

41,5
40.3
40.1
41.5
40.8
41.4

41.7
40.6
40.1
41.6
40.7
41.4
43.0
40.0
40.7
41.5
39.2

r41.4
40.7
r40.1
r41.3
40.0
r41.4
r42.6
r39.9
r40.9
41.2
r39.6

41.7
40.4
40,0
41.1
40.4
41.5

43.3
40.9
42.1
41.7
39.7

42.1
40.3
41.6
41.8
42.4
42.2
43.8
41.2
43.2
41.7
40.0

41.1
39.2
41.9
36.4
43.7

40.9
38.5
42.2
36.5
43.7
38.7
41.%
42.5
42.1
39.0

41.0
38.0
42.2
36.5
43.4
39.0
42.0
42.5
41.7
38.7

41.3
37.9
41.7
36.2
43.4
39.0
42.0
42.4
41.5
38.3

41.1
37.8
42.0
36.3
43.3

41.2
38.6
41.0
36.7
43.2

41.1
38.5
40.3
35.5
42.8

38.9
42.0
41.9
41.8
38.6

38.9
41.8
41.8
41.4
38.4

r40.9
r39.8
40.6
36.2
42.9
r38.7
r41,7
r42.7
r41.2
r37.7

38.9
42.3
42.6
42.4
39.0

42.9
39.9
40.7
40.9
38.7
41.0
37.5
40.1
35.6
42.7
38.5
41.4
42.8
40.7
37.1

38.5
41.7
43.1
41.0
36.9

42.4
39.6
40.6

a. 4

39.5

40.6
38.2
40.5
36.0
42.5
38.2
41.2
41.9
40.7
37.8

Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
AH durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
}
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment . . . .
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
Metal working machinery *
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
•.
Office and store machines*. .....
Service industry machinery *
%x.

24,197
3,905
2,037

24,276
4,305
2,331

24,593
4,109
2,173

24,371
4,106
2,277

23,512
3,792
1,906

22,072
3,315
1,495

22,329
3,427
1,805

2,206

2,237

2,163

2,231

2,128

2,049

2,224

2,247

p2,151

(NA)

3,538
335

3,553
254

3,609
329

3,426
266

3,774
420

3,391
214

3,266
296

3,351
291

p3,460
p311

(NA)
(NA)

610
309

705
263

617
297

646
244

634
323

568
144

546
210

586
218

p6l6
p242

(HA)
(NA)

251

251

252

267

329

252

267

P313

(NA)

303

•

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
p = Preliminary.
r = Revised,
*Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.



22,065 r22,325 23,788
r3,240 3,643
3,013
(NA)
1,434 pi, 704

Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.

NA=Not available.

Table SB

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Direction of Change

9-month spans

1-month spans

1967

1966

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components
DO
*?

f

*«"

"o
0
&

1 CO

o

0

,

o

-ZL

o
<u
O

1

5- M . f S g l S s S j ? !
4 £ 1k
~°

•1 |

CO

£ s

i
z

^
Q

i
^

i
t

^
S

H ^ ^
s ^ E -

^ A
^ - ^

o
^

Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

'j

62

64

4-

4-

*

0

44-

4-

4-

+

4-

4-

4-

19

4-

4-

69

7

Machinery except electrical

,

Flppffiral pniiinmpnt
Trfindinrtatinn pniiinmpnf

0
+

,

0

,

+

+

•

-

0

*

**

4-

4-

4-

4-

-

+

-

-

-

-

-

19

-

17

-

~

-

12 i

-

-

-

+

-

|

-

j

4 - + !

-

-

-

4

-

4

-

-

4

-

4

0

4

0
4

-

-

-

-

0

-

:

-

-

-

-

4-

-

4

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

;

444-

-

4-

-

-

-

4

-

4-

4-

-

0

4-

.

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

0

-

-

-

-

-

+

-

-

-

-

-

+

1

-

'

H

-

4-

4

-

4

-

O

4

-

-

-

-

0

4-

0

-

-

0

+

4-

O

+

0

4- ' '

+

40

4-

o

-

4-

50

44

56
+

32

44-

4

-

-

4-'

,0

4

-

O

4-

0
-

4O

0

4-

4-

10
*

4-

4-

*

4

-

4-

4-

+

O

0

~

19

-

4

O

4+

•

0
-

+

4+

10

-

4-

4-

+

4-

_

-

4-

+

+

<

0

0

O

4

38

-

4

+

+

4*

-

36

4

0

4-

4-

45

0

_

4-

o

4-

44-

4-

+
+

36

24

4*
O

40

0

4-

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries . ,
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures

55

.

O

*• . ,

76

4-

4-

Fnhrirntprf mpfnl nrnrln^tc

Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

40
o

4-

45

4

4-

4
0

-

-

0

-

4

-

-

-

-

O

-

-

-

-

+

4 - 0 ;

44-

+

0

-

4

-

4

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

:

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
60

38

49

58

72

58

4-

4-

4-

+

4

4-

4-

4-

4

4-

+

39

56

Primary metals:
4-

Nonferrous metals

4-

+
4-

+

4-

Fabricated metal products:
4-

4-

Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
.
Internal combustion engines *

4-

+

444-

4-

4-

+

+
4-

' ' 4-

4-

4-

44-

4-

Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *

4-

-

4.

+

4-

4*
4-

4_

+

+

"—

4.:,:.4-

4

-

-

*.

4

-

„

+

4

~

-

+
-

31

-

-

+

-

4

4

-

-

-

*

4

-

-

,

:

-

-

-

-

39

-

-

»

-

32
-

-

,

-

-

""

4

-

4

~!

-

i

+

- -

4-

+

+

+

+

+

4

_

+

+

+

-.• +

+
+

4-

'-

-;

, +

+

+ +]

4.
+

••'4,.

-

0

+

4

-

-

4
-

+

-

4

-

+..

4.

+

+

+

+

4

+
+

-....+
+
+

4+

4+

4+

+

_

+

-

+

4

-

4„

-

4

+

-

-

4

-

-

4

-

-

-

4

-j

+

-|

.

-

.

-

+!

4+

-|
+:

4.

0

+ - rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.




4

-

-

+

-

-

36

-

4-

4-

4-

-

4-

0

_

-

.+

42

-

-

4

-.

4-

+

•'.'•'-*

4-

+

4-

+

-

-

0

44-

+

-

+
4

+

44

4

; . - . - »

+

4-

+

+

Construction mining and material handling *

_

4-

4-

4-

4-

4

-

+

4-

56

-

+

4

4-

4-

Other primary metals

.

60

-

4+
-

-

-

-

|

* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

53

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

JUNE 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components

Apr.

May

June

July

Feb.

Jan.

Aug.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June 1

Millions of dollars.
06, VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES*- Continued
3,466
3,612
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* ....
\
731 844
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV .
888
672
Communication equipment t
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery**. *
6,488
6,561
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts «

3,437

3,744

3,603

3,552

3,362

r3,273

p3,244

(NA)

783

789

801

833

724

r683

P729

(NA)

742

890

812

703

793

r781

P748

(NA)

6,902

6,639

5,986

5,577

5,799

r5,911 r6,159

p7,175

Mntnr wohirlo ftCQomhlu nnpratinnc
Onmnlpfp Jiirf*rjift"h
Airpraft nflrtcr
Other tmncnnrtftfinn onnintnont

Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index

Index: 1957-59 = 100

121.5

118.3

118.4

118.8

1 17
1.

105.2

106.8

102.5

100.1

99.5

99.6

Dollars

Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
.
Zinc(lb.)
,
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (lb.)( 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib ) . .•
Tallow (Ib)
D54. SALES OF RET AIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
*
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores

.620
.062
31.479
1.770

.5B6
.075
30.384
1.678

.629
.075
31.556
1.611

.623
.075
34.264
1.619

.462
.074
30.173
1.570

.500
.062
26.316
1.547

.459
.064
27.603
1.580

.398
.062
29.301
1.610

.343
.063
26.812
1.569

.151
.169
.291
.215
1.787

.151
.163
.291
.217
1.811

.152
.161
.291
.218
1.794

.151
.162
.292
.209
1.824

.151
.156
.222
.217
1.791

.149
.147
.221
.201
1.624

.150
.150
.220
.202
1.628

.151
.150
.218
.197
1.601

.150
.146
.218
.192
1.605

.207
11.341
.239
.071

.212
11.103
.235
.072

.236
11.100
.234
.072

.227
11.022
.239
.073

.214
11.012
.239
.075

.211
10.938
.219
.061

.202
10.828
.209
.056

.177
10.732
.204
.050

.159
10.669
.201
.051

.371
.360
.065
.064
28.261 29.016
1.528
1.554
.142
.141
.146
.141
.217
.219
.194
.193
1.663 1.674
.168
.157
10.753 10.721
.216 .
.201
.052
.050

Millions of dollars
25,470 r 25, 739 r25,923 p26,069

24,949

24,475

25,394

25,362

25,572

25,687

5,467

5,431

5,472

5,436

5,426

5,417

5/,.452

r5,535

p5,5lO

(NA)

1,924
2,099
224
453

1,910
2,113
216
467

1,967
2,214
219
487

1,996
2,201
234
481

1,975
2,182
219
480

2,036
2,2U
220
486

2,026 r2,046
2,191 r2,200
230'
223
472
r448

p2,026
p2,279
p229
p520

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

279

283

295

301

327

317

r315

P332

(NA)

304

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. tThese industries
plus ordnance comprise series 99.
NA = Not available. p= Preliminary, r = Revised.
^Average for June 19, 20, and 21.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. Industrial materials price index is not seasonally
adjusted.

54


bed

Table 5B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued

Direction of Change—Continued

1-month spans

1966

9-month spans

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components

.^

00

—

"S.
*> o
= - 9
fo
S.5rt
= i t D o < a > ( i 1 < " s « = ? " ^
(
O

f ! I i ill! f f t
5

2m

o
<i>
Z Q

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery;
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipmentt.
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftt
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising

1967

? 5 ? i t l t ^ 2
aj

d co
a. co
^
^
3
—? L L . S < C E —i —i < t

+

-

-

+

+

+
+

+
-

_

_

+

-

+

+

+

_

+

_

4

_

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+•
_

4-

+

+

+
+

00

4

-

4

4

_

+

_

+

+
+

4

-

-

+

-

4

-

4;

4

-

+

«
=

4

_
4

_

-

4
4

-

4

_

4

-

-

-

-

-

!

+

+
_

i

_

-

+
_

-

;

+

-

_

-

-

-

_

-

-

_

-

-

-

-

-

4

-

-

-

4

4

-

c^>

+

f
-

4

-

-

4

+

_

+
4-

4-

-

4-

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

„
-

.

_

_

_

-

-

4

-

4-

-

4

4

-

-

4

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

_

+

0

19

31

58

46

54

23

23

62

69

-

4-

4

- '

-

-

4

4

54

31

15

8

8

8

0

0

0

0 15

+

27

+

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

«

—

—

—

«.

—

—

—

—

—

4-

1

-

-

+

Pnnnor crrun f\h ^

Lead scrap (Ib )

^tppl cpriin /tnn^

Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb)

4-,

4

Din-Ion f\iri \

->

,+

4

,. + .

4,

-

-

, +

0

-

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

+

4

4-

-:

-

-

+

-

-

-

*-

4

4

Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average —
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib )
f^nltnn /Ik \

-

1C m^rl/nt (Minmnn

0

:

:

O

-

-

-

+
+

4
+

+

„

-

-

4
4
_
-

4
-

-

^

,
*

-

-

-

-

Mi Hoc flh 1
pAcin /inn IK \

Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(2 3 retail store components)
AS 61 U 70 J&
Percent rising . .
..»
All retail sales
Grocery stores
• •
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) • .
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
44
Men's and boys' wear stores

.

.

.

.

.

-

-

-

83

87

78

83

65

-

+

+

+

+

-

4-

4

4

4

_

4

4

4-

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

-

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

4

-

+

4

4

4

65

+

4

+

76

4

4

4

78

+

4

' -

83

4-

4-

78
+

87 39 U 56 37

+

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

44

+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24. tThese industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.

4

*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

^•Average for June 19, 20, and 21.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.




55

Table 5A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data-Continued

1967

1966

Diffusion index title and components
Apr.

May

June

Aug.

July

Jan.

Feb.

Mar/

Apr. p

May

Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores . * •
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV, radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers .....
Tire, battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

579

578

583

584

582

587

576

557

616

(NA)

223
741
379
797
237

232
734
372
752
238

241
746
397
769
237

228
771
429
764
243

231
782
423
769
245

250
792
429
803
259

239
780
449
801
257

228
755
441
794
255

254
790
427
775
270

(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

4,302
' 278
1,927
843
564

4,017
271
1,920
831
560

4,479
292
1,927
848
572

4,460
304
1,918
844
549

4,658
301
1,906
837
551

4,298
306
1,931
877
591

4,085
309
1,968
883
595

4,291
311
1,964
889
584

4,390
310
1,993
904
602

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

> :::
1966

July

Aug.

Sept

1967

Nov.

Ocl

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.r

Apr. r

MayP

Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagriculturai establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products . .; ,
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade . .
Retail trade

64,072

64,199

64,168

64,466

64,823

65,381

65,497

65,600

65,479

122
543
378
515
1,090
1,043
1,331
1,320
1,324
277
350

124
542
382
512
1,100
1,060
1,338
1,353
1,353
278
353

126
531
380
507
1,092
1,055
1,339
1,350
1,389
277
349

128
529
381
507
1,102
1,062
1,346
1,363
1,392
280
352

131
530
385
507
1,103
1,074
1,348
1,358
1,395
281
355

136
539
381
515
1,090
1,074
1,363
1,357
1,362
287
358

141
537
379
507
1,071
1,070
1,357
1,355
1,361
287
352

144
538
375
509
1,052
1,064
1,352
1,336
1,362
288
349

143
525
369
496
1,031
1,051
1,340
1,308
1,343
287
349

65,435
146
517
371
490
1,022
1,046
1,339
1,300
1,358
286
347

1,165
73
850
1,232
530
656
577
115
403
307

1,170
68
856
1,239
528
659
582
115
406
312

1,145
67
848
1,234
520
657
575
14
1
403
310

1,156
66
847
1,246
525
659
576
14
1
409
310

1,186
74
847
1,250
53X
662
581
115
413
310

1,183
77
847
1,257
531
673
584
115
417
307

1,184
72
838
1,242
533
673
583
14
1
412
302

1,189

836
1,222
534
677
579
113
408
298

1,177
73
831
1,231
532
677
578
115
409
302

1,172
74
824
1,233
529
677
577
114
368
298

636
3,297
4,122
3,483
9,773

636
3,251
4,105
3,483
9,781

628
3,228
4,168
3,474
9,794

625
3,202
4,165
3,486
9,854

624
3,204
4,195
3,505
9,888

628
3,301
4,230
3,530
9,973

626
3,350
4,225
3,535
9,989

627
3,321
4,223
3,554
9,993

625
3,262
4,185
3,565
10,013

619
3,159
4,235
3,569
10,012

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.


56


NA = Not available,

p = Preliminary.

r = Revised.

72;

bed

JUNE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Direction of Change—Continued

9- month spans

1-montn spans

1966
Diffusion index title and components

-G

00

o
£
I I
3

1966

1967

I

o

TO CD

«

o.

co

CD

<5

4
4

0

4

CD

• -

4

4

4

CO

-

4

_

4

4

4

•4

4

0
.

10

-

4

-

4
.

.:

CO

-

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

E

4

=3

—^

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

:~

.-

—

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

-f

4-

•-

•=• »

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-4

4

+

+

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4s

4

4

4

•

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
+

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

"G
8- o

f

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

•f

4
+

4

"'"

DO
•5

"5
—i

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)

4

-

4

4

-

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4-

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

1967

8-

CO

0
tJ
O

o

<1>

^

5.

«

o

e-

jb

CO

>L

CO

ti.

—,

U_

S

<C

Lt_

CD

CO

0

40

£0

82

73

CO
fe

23
o

75

88

63

73

37

52

4 •

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4.

+

+

4-

. _

4
_

4

-

1

4
4

4
4

0

4

4

75

75

72

83

70

68

57

35

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

c
=3

4
4

4

+

_

4

0

4

O

4

-

-

0

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

0

0

4

-

4

4

4

4

0

4
4-

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0

0

4

4

4

4

4

O

4

4

4

4

4
0
4

4

+

4

4

4
4

4
4

4

4-

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

0
_

4
_

0

4

4
+

-

4

4

4

4

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

4-

4

0

4
+

4

4

4

4

O

O

4

0

0

-

4

4

4

0

-

4

O

O
4

4

-

4

-

4

4

4

-

0

0

o

4

4

' 4

4

4
4

4
4

4

4

4

0
4

4

O

-

-

4

4

O

4

-

0

-

4

O

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4 ;

4

4

4

4

0

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
0
4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

-

4

O

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

_

4

4

4

0

_

4

4

-f

4

4

4

4

-

_

4

4

4

4
+

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4

+

4

4

4
4

„

4

4

0

4

i
t
£

4

.

Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products .......*.............
Petroleum and related products

Q.

CO

£
$

4

CO
CO

1967

1966
on

"o

O
I
&>

4

6-month spans

4

73

Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products




J

CO

4

1966

+ = rising; o = unchanged;

S

4

1-month spans

Mining
«
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
•' •
Retai 1 trade

u_

CO

1

4,
44

Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories . .
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

1

Q

4

4

4
-

CD

-0
CD
U_

o

4

4

4

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
,
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores . .
Other duiable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

0

cl>

O

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores

I

1967

4

4

- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.

57

TaWeSA

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components
July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS^Con.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

3,095
9,609
2,601
8,328

3,100
9,647
2,610
8,324

3,100
9,649
2,594
8,329

3,102
9,712
2,615
8,393

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(24 industry components)

Minerals:
Coal
•
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mini no

Stone and earth minerals

3,129
9,869
2,662
8,591

3,142
9,919
2,673
8,636

r3,159
3,175 P3,183
r9,981 rlO,007 rlO,031
2,688 r2,691 p2,702
r8,699 r8,735 pS,782

Index: 1957-59=100
157.2

158.9

158.6

158.1

156.4

156.4

148.7
161.4

146^4
163.0

145^0
164.2

138^4
164.7

131.9
166.6

r!3l'.9
rl65.0

rl29! 2
rl62.9

r!28.7
rl60.0

p!28
p!59

186 '.7
193.4
166.0
177.4

188*. 6
189.2
168.3
179.5

18SL9
192.6
174.6
181.8

188.' 2
190.1
172.9
181.4

190.7
187.2
164.6
186.2

r!87.'3
r!85.3
159.4
183.4

rl85.*2
r!82.0
rl64.5
r!85.8

183^2
r!79.5
rl67.3
186.0

138*. 5
119.9

14<X 5
111.3

141^2
110.0

137*. 8
. 111.3

136 !5
109.5

137 '.2
115.7

136! 9
116.9

r!35.*6
r!20.2

135'.1
P120.0

p!83
p!80
Pl69
p!87
p!28
P134
(NA)

169 '.7
157.2

175 '.3
158.7

173 ".2
158.4

173 '.2
157.2

173 '.9
158.5

172.1
160.3

170 .'6
157.1

rl66*.5
r!58.2

rl66.*3
r!59.0

pl66
p!59

143.' 4
H9.7
111.1

142 !l
U7.7
110.4

14l! 7
148.4
109.9

142 .'4
U8.1
113.9

141.8
149.3
110.8

139.3
150.2
107.7

136.7
146.4
r!03.7

rl36*3
p!42.2
plOO.5

rl33.2
r!35.1
(NA)
(NA)

156.' 2
144.8

153!l
145.3

15l".2
144.3

153 '.3
144.1

153.*7
144.7

154*.6
145.5

152*. 4
H6.1

r!52!4
rH6,8

194*. 5
126.9
188.7

194*. 4
128.5
190.3

193^5
130.6
193.6

196." 9
131.2
199.2

199 '.4
129.1
202.0

198 ! 6 r200.5
128.7 rl27.4
198.8
196.3

r200,4
r 130.1
P191.9

128*. 1
116.5

••

157.7

184*. 7
189.1
166.0
177.0

•

158,0

148.6
162.1

All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products . . *
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages

3,110
9,778
2,621
8,483

129.* 2
119.9

128*. 5
120.5

127 '.5
116.9

129.' 7
117.2

13l! 9
118.5

131*3
120.2

rl3l'.7
pll6.2

pl52*6
148.4
r!85.9
P199.8
P132.7
(NA)
r!31.0
P131.9
(NA)

p!33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p!49
(NA)
p!49
p!83
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p!31
(NA)
(NA)

120.8
119.2

120.7
119.6

1U.7
119.6

121.5
119.5

114.0
119.3

120.7
119.3

115.7
rl!9.6

115.1
119.6

120.0
rl!8.4

134! 6
133.7

132.' 1
133.8

128.*6
133.5

12S>! 4
130.3

133! 6
133.4

140 !3
138.7

H2.1
136.6

r!43.*7
rl37.2

pH8.*7
p!30.6

106.0

106.4

106.4

106.3

106.2

106.4

106.4

106.3

106.2

106.3

106.6
99.0
102.7
102.2

106.2
99.1
102.7
102.7

105.9
99.2
103.0
102.5

104.8
99.7
103.2
102.5

103.0
100.3
103.3
102.8

102.6
100.4
103.6
103.0

103.6
100.4
103.7
103.2

103.6
100.6
103.8
103.3

104.1
100.6
103.9
103.2

104.2
100.8
103.8
103.2

r!56.0 P155.5

p!20
pl!8
p!32
(NA)
(NA)

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(22 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

58



NA=Not available,

p -Preliminary.

r -Revised.

TaUe SB

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Direction of Change—Continued

1-month S(jans

6-month spans

1967

1966

1966

Diffusion index title and components

s\ co o *;>
§• tj i

« <c
{ I | | 1 Ji -S "S -S. s
i Lu

i 1£ 1

1967

<C'

£

% = ^
9 ™ £ =f 5" s
I I
I

1

I 1, i 1

•^

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1.
All industrial production
Durable goods:

"6

0

<

co

O

Z

C

'' 0

4

+

4
4-

0
-

44

+
4-

44- •••••••
+
4

+
+•

4 - 4 -

0

:

&

<C

+

D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

-3

—i

4

4-

4-

4-

4-

-h

4-

4-

4-

4

40 60 50 58 ' 3

27
—

44
o

46
—

29

75

62

65

58

4

+

4

4

-

-

_
_

4 - 4 4 4
4-

—

—

+

_

4
4
4
4

60

:

4-

:

:

—

Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products

+

_

_

4 4 - 4 -

_

~

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products

+...

.+ .

4

4

-

4-

-

4

4-

-

-

4-

—

O

4

4-

+

-

o

4

£.

-

+
4-

4
4-

:

4-

+ • +

+

4-

4

+

4-

4-

4 4 -

+

4 - 4

4-

4

4 - 4 - 4
4 - 4 - 4 -

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 -

4 - 4 - 4

4 - 4 - 4 -

4-

4-

st .9

4
4

4

-

- 4
4 - 4
- 4 -

4

4
4
4

4-

4

40

42

—

-I

_

_

4 - 4 - 4 -

-

-

-

52
-

62
4

48

4

_

;

—,

—

—

4

4

—

—

—

4-

4
-

4

—

—

_

4

4

+

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

-

-

4-

- •

-f

_

4

- .
-

O
-

+
4-

44-

-

4-

-

4-

4-

-

-

-

4-

-

4

4

Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products

4
+

Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:

+

....

~

4

+

NA

4

••-

4-

4-

_

-

- NA

- "

-

- NA

NA
NA
NA

4-

-

O

4 - 4 -

4-

+

+

4-

+

4

4

0

-

_

+

_

4-

_

_

„

4,

—

4.

—

«.

+ NA

—

-

_

-

+

4-

4-

4-

+

4-

- NA
NA NA
NA NA
..

paper and products
Printing and publishing

-f.

Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

.

4-

+

+

4-

4

-

-

4 - 4

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Qoal
Crude oil and natural gas

4

4

-

4
4

-

—
4

-

—
4

4-

4
4- 4 -

-

-

-

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING z
(22 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
•
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables ..............
Nonmetallic mineral products. ...*...*..«...*...*..
Iron and steel
«...

- NA

+

4

+

O
+

4
+ ' 4-,-'.
o
+
, _,
,,

O
4

4

4

-

4

-

4

+
4-

-

4-

O
4O
4 4 - 4 4
+
_..,.

4-

4
4

0
4
+

-

4

57

-

0

48

4

4

4

+

+

4

+

4-

4

4-

0

o

- 0 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4

+ NA

4-

4-

NA

73

64

68

_

4

+
+
+

44
4

44
4-

4-

-

+
+

-

4-

4

4-

+

o

4

4

4

73

73

+ NA
NA NA

+

4-

7

+

+
-

NA
NA

86

r?

NA

+ NA
NA NA

-

4-

54
o

4-

-

4

96

64
-

4

4

4-

48 64
o
-

-

-

57

-

44-

+
_

4

4.

+
+

4_

4

4

NA
NA

+
-

4-

4-

+

44 - 4 - 4 * - . » . +

4-

-

-

4

4-

:

o

—

-

+

4

+

—

4

4

-

-

—

-

- NA

+

4-

4-

+

4 - 4 - 4 -

4

4-

0

4

4-

0

-

54
4-

44-

44

+

-

-

4

4-

4 - 4 - 4 -

4-

.*
4-

4-

4-

NA
NA
NANA

4-

. • .«
- . -

NA
+

-

O

-

4-

*

38

-

. .

Lumber and products

4-

-

4-

- i

_

4

:

-

-

r

-

,

73

+

0

4
44 4 -

O
:

64

4-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4

4-

64

4-

4 - 4- ' 4-

13

Hr
4-

4
4-

+

;

-

+ Arising; o = unchanged; -= falling. NA=Not available.
^The percent rising is based on 24 industry components, Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted,



59

Table SA

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE

bed

1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components
July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Index; 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINGMfontinued
Durable goods-Continued
General purpose machinery and eouipment
Mntnr uphirlp^ and pnninmftnt . . . » .

. **

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

122.9
104.2
111.2
110.0
106.2
99.0
100.7
107.1

120.4
104.2
112.3
110.6
106.2
99.1
100.5
107.1

119.9
104.4
112.4
111.1
106.8
99.2
100.1
107.1

120.3
104.6
112.7
111.8
107.4
99.5
101.7
107.2

121.0
104.8
113.1
112.2
107.8
100.7
101.7
107.4

121.8
104.8
113.6
112.8
108.5
101.9
101.6
107.9

122.3
104.8
113.6
113.0
108.7
101.8
101.6
108.0

121.1
104*8
113.7
113.0
108.8
102.2
101.6
107.8

120.0
104.9
113.6
113.0
108.8
102.3
101.6
108.0

118.9
105.1
113.7
113.2
108.9
101.9
101.6
108.0

113.8
103.0
106.7
90.1
105.0
103.2
97.9
99.9
95.1
122.7

115.7
103.3
106.6
89.6
105.0
103.2
97.9
100.7
95.1
121.2

115.5
103.1
106.1
88.8
105.1
103.1
98.0
101.0
94. "7
119.9

113.9
103.3
105.6
88.1
105.3
103.1
97.9
101.3
94.6
118.7

112.6
103.0
105.1
87.7
105.5
103.0
98.0
101.3
95.0
117.5

112.8
102.5
104.7
87.1
105.7
103.1
98.4
100.3
95.6
117.9

111.7
101.8
104.7
87.1
105.9
103.3
98.5
101.9
95.8
118.0

110.6
101.3
104.0
86.9
106.0
103.6
98.5
102.4
95.9
117.0

110.0
100.8
102.9
86.8
106.2
103.9
98.8
101.7
95.9
116.0

110.7
100.3
103.1
86.3
106.3
103.9
98.8
103.7
95.8
115.4

Preliminary.
r = Revised.
are not seasonally adjusted.

60



Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, "Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks," and of diffusion index D5, "Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs "are not available from the Census Bureau.

Table 5B

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JUNE 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued

1-month spans

6- month spans

oo

"G

o
I
J>v

=»

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING^ -Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products

&>

4
4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

0

4

4

4

4

4
4

0

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products

>
o
2:
"o
O

I

0

, .

1967

4
4
4
4
4
4
O
4

O

d>
O

c
CO

^

~&
4

O

g

+
4

4

i

9

4

4

£

C3

0

4...

O

4

0

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
+

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0

O

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

O

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

O

0

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

O

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4
4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

O

0

4

4

4

0

4

-

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

O

4

+

4

4

• o

4

4

44
4
4
4

0

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0
0

4

4

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

o

z

O

o
^

25

88

60

91 92

4

6

ji

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

• .•

4

4

4

+

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

•c

4
4

Publishing
Chemicals

4

4

4

4

4

4

•8
U
.

S

"o
f 10

£

o
z

0

—^

22

12

6

<5

1

1 U-

£

£

61 76

4

74

4
4

-

•

4

4

4

4
4
4

4

4
4

4
4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

-

k

c
=t

1_:>»

Z3
—^

4

4

4

4

22
4

20
4

47

58

66

86

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

+

10

4-

+
4

4

-

-

4
4

4

4

4

• 4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4
4

4

4

4
4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4
4

-

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

4

4

<
^

4

4'

4

„

4
4

4

4
0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

*

Q.

<c

g

4

4

4
4

4

c5

4

4
4

4
4

£ 1
u_

(0

4

4

4
4

&

cz

-^1

_

4

4

-

1 ifp in^nranpp

4

4

«

>s
CT3

4

4

4
+

-

c5

4

4

>
o

4

&

4

1967

. 4

&}

-

Natural gas distributors
Retaj 1 stores composite

oo

o
<r>
O

~

Oil composite • • •
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
*
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters

1966

1967

4

*

4

9-month spans

CO

Percent rising3
Index of 500 stock prices . » . . * * . . * • . »
Coal bituminous
Food compos! te
Tobacco fci&arette manufacturers)
.• .

1

4

>
O
2=

"o

1O

3

J?

4

1966

%

o.
<C
"o
O

4

1-month spans

D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components) 2

Q.
O>
CO

4

4

too
,=3

S

0

4

0

CO

4

4

4

4
4

3
—i

'

4

0

4

s

.
0

£.
*f
<a:

4

O
4

&

c
03

1

4

4
4

>

OuO

tJ
5 1o o
Ik
P3
3 &
u_

4

4

0

1967

4

Man ma HP fihpr tpxtilp nrnrlurte
0

M
1-

4

O

4

O

(5

1966

June-Dec

1966

Diffusion index title and components

4

-

4

4

4

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - =falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
•'•Data are not seasonally adjusted,
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 77 components.
2




61

Table 5B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

JUNE 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Direction of Change—Continued

9- month spans

1-month spans

1966

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components
f & g S ^ i - g J S . ^
*£
>*

oo
£o

9
•£

2=
,»i«

9
:>

->
6

U_
A

S
-a

<

S

U - k L

CkQ
ra

1967

*££
..
>
S " " o O

_
m

f>
o>

J5
A
^
^ ^ ' * ^

^o
0 3

1 i ^ ^ 5 ^ - z ^ t ^l^ rf sl. S
,
o < >
r o
^
s

^ 3 t £ £ S - £ ^ ^
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (6)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11) ,
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)

z o

- ^ u . s < c s - ^ - ^

<

72

81

68

77

79

81

34

34

23

17

47

28

+

+•

+

-

+

+

+

+•

+

+

+
4

+
4

4
4
4
4

_
4
_
4

4
4
_
4

-

4
4
4
4

4
-

4

4

4

-

-

-

4

_

4

»

_

-

.

36

47

28

55

17

-

4

-

4

4
-

47

55

54

4
4

_
4

4
-

+

-f

+

+

+

+

.
+

+
+

4

-

4

4

-

-

4

-

4

4

4

_

4

_

-

4

_

4

_

4

4

-

4

4

_

4

4

_

4
4

4
4

+

+

_

_

+

4

_

-

4

+
4

_

4

-

^

_

4

4
4

4

4
_
4
4

4

-

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

-

-

.

-

4

4

4

4

4

_

_

4

_

4

_

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

_

4

_

_

4

_

-

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

_

4

-

4

-

4

4

4

.

4

4

4
4

-

_

_

_

_

»
_

4

4

_

4
4

4

-

4

4

_

J

_

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

•••

-

+

4

4

4

_

Milwaukee (15 )
Minneapolis (13)
St Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (7).
Seattle (17)

4

4

4

Indianapolis (23)

4
_
_
4
4
4
.
_
_
4
4

4

4

4

4

...»

*

4

4

-

4

4

-

4
4

4
-

4
4

_
4

_
4

-

4

4
4

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

4-

+

+

4

-

-

4

-

-

-

4

-

4
4

4

-

-

4

4

-

-

-

-

- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. The
percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
Die number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor market area.


62





Section THREE

CYCLICAL
COMPARISONS

charts
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles

CHART 3

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

bed

JUNE 1967

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES

PERIOD COVERED

Percent

—- Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
—— July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
----- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

-Reference trough dates

Percent

29. New bldg. permits,
private housing units

180
170
160
150
140
130

106

-Reference trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.

104
102 ;

120-

j
*
100**

110 i
c

100*
00
80
70
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus.

200
ISO
180
17©
160
150
140

31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories lann. rate,
bii. dol.; 5-term moving avg.p
+20
+1S

T
130 ^
120 1

+12

+8

110

+4

100*
10

+84

0

80
+12 +24 +36 +48 +80 +72
Months from reference troughs

=4

+12 +24 +36 +48 +60
Months from reference troughs

+72

+84

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level. .-A-Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.

64




I
C^

bed

CHART 3

JUNE 1967

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued

fl

PERIOD COVERED
—
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
— July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
—- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

17. Ratio, price to unit
labor cost, mfg.

23. industrial materials prices

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

113. Change in consumer installment debt
(ann. rate, bil, do!.]'

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
'Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.




65

CHART 3

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

JUNE 1967

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Percent
125

—
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
—— July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
—- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

-Reference trough dates
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

120

Percent
-T 150

IIS

~— Reference trough dates
50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q

140
110
130

47. Industrial production
816. Mfg. and trade sates

100*

90
-12

0

+12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +72
Months from reference troughs

+84

-12

0

+12

+24

+36

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used.
* Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.

66



+48

+60

Months from reference troughs

+72

+84

Ji

CHART 3

bed

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

JUNE 1967

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued

PERIOD COVERED

fl

Percent

— Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough; Oct. 1949}
•••»«• July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954}
—« July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough; Apr. 1958}
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

•Reference
61. Business expenditures, new
plant and equipment, Q

— Kefetme tratigtf
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)1

67. Bank rates on short-term
business loans, Q
55. Wholesale prices,
industrial commodities

+12 +24 +3i
+48 +80
Months from rgftrene® troyghs

+72

+14

-12

0

+12 +24 +31 +48 +@i +12
Months from reference troughs

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
'Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o point at which a new reference trough was reached.
^Latest data anticipated.




67

CHART 3

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

JUNE 1967

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued

PERIOD COVERED
_ Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
......... July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
—— July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough; Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present {Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

BiL del
-Reference trough dales
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product account, Q
A
(aim, rate, biLdoL)1

+20

+15

62. Labor cost per
unit of output,
mfg.

-5

71. Book value, mfg.
and trade inventories

98. Change in money supply and time deposits
lam. rate, percent; 6-teim moving avg.)'

*3

m

- +i

Current data are shown in table 2, The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used.
percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o point at which a new reference trough was reached.


68


!

Lines represent actual data rather than

Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Trough

Cycle

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857.
.October 1860 .
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
" March 1882

May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919

'

(X)
18
8
32
T5
65

30
22
46
13
34
36

(x)
48
30
78
36
99

(x)
40
54
50
52
101

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
13

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
23

56
32
36
67
1
7
40

November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937 . .
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953

14
"13
43
13
8
1
1

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May 1960

13
"9
9

35
25
(X)

^
2*
44
34

41
34
93
93
Z5
56

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 .
4 cycles, 1945-1961..

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . .

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

July 1921
July 1924

.

48
34
(X)
*49
54
46

2

3

*46
48
6
42

5

NOTE: Underscored fi gyres are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and
the full cycles that include.the wartime expansions.
ull
X
25
2

cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.

3
4
4

cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.

5

7 cycles, 1920-1960.
*3 cycles, 1945-1960.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




69

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS

Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
Dec.
manufacturing
30. Nonagriculturat placements, all industries* . . Jan.
Jan.
38 Index of net business formation
6 New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan.
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
29. New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19. Stock prices, J500"common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt.

Dec.
Dec.
'Oct.
IstQ

'60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60

Apr.
Mar.
Apr,
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.

'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58

Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.

'54
'54
'54
'53
'54
'53

Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.

'49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21
'49 Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20

'60
'60
'60
'61

Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ

'58
'58
'57
'58

Nov.
Feb.
Sep.
4thQ

'53
'54
'53
'53

Apr.
June
June
2ndQ

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NSC)
Oct. '23 lug. '21
'49 Apr. '38 June '32
'49 2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21

Jan. '61 Mar,
Apr. "61 Mar.

'58 Mar. '54 May '49 Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Aug. '27 June '24 Mar. X21
(NA)
(NA)
'58 Mar. '54 Jan . ' 49 Feb. '38 Feb. '32
(Nik,

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May ' 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 Mar. '33
May » 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 May '33
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
d IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ '54 2ndQ 'A9 IstQ '38 3rdQ '32
47.
52.
816.
54.

Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retai 1 stores

Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61

Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.

'58
'58
'58
'58

Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.

'54 Oct. '49 May '38
'54 July '49
'54 Oct. '49
(NSC) May '38
'54

*> (ft

Jan. '28
(NA)
(NSC)

July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
4thQ '21

July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
Mar. '33 AthQ
2ndQ '24 2ndQ, ' 21
(NA)
(NA)
(NAT
(
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
Mar. '33

;if

LAGGING INDICATORS

502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and,
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding . . .
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)

July '61 Aug.

'58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49

2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55

4thQ '49

Mar. '61 Aug.

Dec.

'58 Oct. '54

Sep. '61 June '59 Sep. '55
(NSC)

(NA)

(NA)

3rdQ '38 IstQ '33 4thQ '27

(NA)

'49

(NA)

July '50 June '40 July '33

July '58 Oct. '54 Aug.

'49

4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55 IstQ '50

(NA)

Dec.

'38

' (NSC)

(NA)

(NSC)

(NSC)

(NA)

(NA)

Feb.

'28

(NA)

3rdQ '24 4tnQ '21

(NA)

(NA)

3rdQ '41

(NA)

(NA)
Apr. '22
(NA)

Nov. '24 Sep. '22

NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA= Not available.

70




NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

May
1937

Nov.
1948

Aug.
1929

Oct.
,1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

LEADING INDICATORS

1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries, , .
38. Index of net business formation
6. New orders, durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt

June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.

'59,
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58

Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.

'55 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
' 5 5 Sep. '52
'55 Jan. '53
'56 May < 51
'55 Nov. '52

Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ

'59
'59
'59
'59

Apr,
Dec.
July
4thQ

'56
'55
'56
'55

June '59
Aug. '59

Oct. '55
Mar. '55

Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ

(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June ' 48
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. . ' 2 8 July '25 Jan. '24

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19

(NA)
'25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26

(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23

Sep. '26
(NA)

June '22
(NA)

'29
(NA)
3rdQ '29

Jan. '26
(NA)
(NSC)

June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)

'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29
'53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
(NSC)
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
'53

Mar. '27
2ndQ '26
(NA)
(NSC)

May '23 Feb. '20
(MA)
IgtQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
July '20

(NA)
(NA)
'53 July '46
'51 Jan.. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'53 June '48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29

Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29

Nov.

Feb. '20
(NA)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816.
54.

Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores

Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Sep. '48 July '37
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. '48 July '37
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 •2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ ' 37
Jan. '60
(NSC)
Jan. '60
Apr . ' 60

Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.

May

'60

Sep. '57

Oct. '53

Jan. '49

' (NA)

2ndQ '60

3rdQ '57

3rdQ '53

4thQ '48

3rdQ '37

July '60

Sep. '57

Sep. '53

Feb. '49

'57
'57
'57
'57

July
Oct.
July
Mar.

Aug.

LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (0)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (0)

Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54

Nov.

(NA)

2ndQ '29

(NA)

4thQ '26

(NA)

(NA)

'48 .Dec. '37

(NSC)

(NSC)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NSC)

Sep. '57

July '53 Aug. '48

Sep. '37

4thQ '59

4thQ '57

4thQ '53

2ndQ 'A9

(NSC)

Oct. '29

Oct. '26

(NA)

(NA)

2ndQ '23

2ndQ '20

(NA)
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)

(NA)
'20

(NA)

Oct. '23 Feb. '21

NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as.the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.

NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.




71

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part L-Average Percentage Changes
Average di ration of run
(ADR)

I/C

Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

1

c

I/C

for
MCD
span

MCD

Cl

1

C

MCD

LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
2. Accession rate manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
3 Layoff rate manufacturing

Jan. '53-June '66- .47
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . 1.83
Jan. '53-June '66.. 4.62

.41
1.34
4.38

.18
1.09
.1.44

2.30
1.23
3.04

3
2
4

.76
.63
.79

2.21
2.11
2.21

1.40
1.52
1.50

10.73
11.50

4.18
3.97
3.76

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . 4.95
Jan. '53-June '66.. 8.75

4.38
7.96

2.17
3.23

2.02
2.47

2
3

.95
.76

1.69
2.27

1.42
1.53

12.67
10.73

3.97
4.82

*38.
13
*6.
94.
*10
24.

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

.79
2.49
3.76
6.64
4.69
4.18

.60
2.18
3.33
6.38
4.39
3.81

.53
1.00
1.51
1.55
1.43
1.52

1.15
2.18
2.20
4.12
3.08
2.51

2
3
3
5
4
3

.66
.78
.66
.87
.84
.88

2.71
1.92
1.81
1.55
1.88
1.83

1.63
1.63
1.58
1.52
1.71
1.60

6.61
7.24
8.44
8.00
9.50

10.86

4.08
3.19
4.41
3.15
3.39
3.41

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . 9.30
May '59-Sep. '65 . . 7.16
Jan. '53-June '66.. 3.70

9.17
7.08
3.31

.97
.89
1.30

9.41
7.91
2.54

6
6
3

(M
C1)
.82

1.60
1.38
1.87

1.48
1.38
1.55

12.67
15.20
12.38

3.00
2.63
3.06

Jan. '53-Sep. '65..

6.46

5.24

2.84

1.85

3

.76

2.37

1.62

7.60

3.57

Jan. '53-Sep. '65-

5.27

4.77

1.98

2.41

3

.77

1.88

1.63

8.94

3.49

Jan. '53-Sep. '65- 7.47
1.31
Jan. (53-Sep. '65Jan. '53-Sep. '65- 2.49
.62
Jan. '53-Oct. '66Jan. '53-Sep. '65- 18.74
Jan. '53-Dec. '65. . 2.63

5.79
1.04
1.68
.51
18.24
2.42

4.00
.73
1.64
.27
1.70
.95

1.45
1.41
1.02
1.93
10.72
2.55

2
2
2
3
6
3

.95
.99
.57
.92
(^
.80

3.17
2.49
2.37
2.62
1.49
1.85

1.85
2.11
1.58
1.70
1.39
1.57

8.94

3.77
3.87
3.97
4.18
2.23
4.17

Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders plant and equipment
New orders, mach. and equip, industries

9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
*29. New building permits private housing
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
*23 Industrial materials prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*17 Ratio price to unit labor cost manufacturing
14 Liabilities of business failures
39 Delinquency rate installment credit loans

'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.

'65 . .
'65 . .
'65..
'65..
'65..
'65..

7.24

11.69
9.50
5.69
8.94
8.44

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
*41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
*43. Unemployment rate, total

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-Dec. '66'53-June '66. .
'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Dec. '66-

3.12
3.00
.44
.31
.35
3.94.

1.77
1.87
.31
.14
.29
3.05

2.34
2.30
.31
.27
.21
2.16

.76
.81
1.00
.52
1.42
1.41

1
1
2
1
2
2

.76
.81
.51
.52
.75
.72

3.27
3.10
2.98
5.19
2.09
2.53

1.70
1.39
1.52
1.50
1.55
1.44

45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
40. Unemployment rate, married males
*47. Industrial production
*52. Personal income
53. Wage and salary income in mining, mfg., and constr.

Jan. '53-Sep. '65Nov. '54-Dec. '66Jan. '53-Sep. '65Jan. '53-June '66Jan. '53-June '66- -

4.19
5.07
1.02
.53
.84

2.19
4.38
.54
.27
.50

3.29
2.55
.76
.46
.64

.67
1.72
.71
.58
.78

1
2
1
1
1

.67
.92
.71
.58
.78

4,90
3.37
3.62
4.88
2.93

1.75
1.48
1.67
1.56
1.56

11.69
23.00
14.64

Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..

1.02
.97
1.45

.74
.83
.54

.62
.44
1.28

1.19
1.88
.42

2
3
1

.62
.70
.42

2.35
2.08
5.63

1.50
1.57
1.57

15.20
10.86

3.69
4.84
5.63

Jan. '53-Dec. '66. .

.17

.11

.13

.84

1

.84

3.88

1.64

9.82

3.88

.20
6.70
1.58
1.65
2.46

.16
5.00
1.31
1.31
2.08

.13
4.46
.82
.93
1.10

1.25
1.12
1.60
1.41
1.90

2
2
3
2
3

.77
.73
.74
.98
.87

3.27
2.53
2.54
2.76
2.58

1.78
1.77
1.85
2.00
1.88

10.44

4.61
3.68
3.78
3.68
3.66

*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
114. Treasury bill rate
116. Corporate bond yields
115. Treasury bond yields
117. Municipal bond yields

See footnotes at end of table.

72



...

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Sep. -'65..
'59-June'66..
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-Sep. '65..

9.82
8.94

12.85
17.89
27.83
7.95

7.60
8.53

8.79

6.61

12.71
8.00
8.00

3.27
3.10
5.03
5.19
4.05
4.05

4.90
4.11
3.62
4.88
2.93

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued

Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

c

1

I/C

I/C
for
MCD
span

MCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

MCD

LAGGING INDICATORS
*502, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
505. Machinery and equip, sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods
*62. Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
66t Consumer installment debt
*72. Com. and indus. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks
118. Mortgage yields, residential

Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. 6.52

5.25

Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. 1.63
.54
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..

4.16

1.26

2

.64

4.07

1.55

7.95

1.32
.18

.89
.50

1.49
.36

2
1

.75
.36

1.96
7.26

1.50
1.58

18.56
23.86

3.32
7.26

.62

.28

.55

.52

,1

.52

3.63

1.42

15.18

3.63

Jan. '53-Sep. '65, .
Jan. '53-Sep. '65. .

.51
.84

.37
.11

.30
'.82

1.26
.14

2
1

.72
.14

2.54
11.69

1.57
1.63

7.86
21.71

3.81
11.69

Jan. '53-Dec, '66. .
Jul. '61-Sep. '65..

.95
.11

.46
.07

.83
.11

.55
.65

1
1

.55
.65

4.07
10.00

1.50
1.92

23.86
5.56

4.07
10.00

Jan. '53-Dec. '66, .
Jan. '53-Oct. '64...

,19
3.81

.12
3.56

.14
.94

.83
3.77

1
4

.83
.91

3.98
1.78

1.62
1.66

9,82
14.10

3.98
4.06

Oct. '62-Dec.'66. .
Jan. '57-Dec. '66
Jan. '53-Oct. '64..
Jul.'5&-Sep. '65..
Jan. '56-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65. .

12.45
6.32
3.04
13.86
27.42
22.53
24.51

1.57
12.28
6,10 - 1.84
2.87
.80
13.59
1.26
27.34
2.16
22.53
1.92
24.35, 2.94

7.80
3.31
3.59
10.77
12.68
11.72
8.28

6
4
.4
6
6
6
6

C1)

C1)
C1)
(X)

C1)

1.43
1.63
1.83
1.40
1.43
1.57
1.63

1.35
1.55
1.62
1.42
1.43
1.48
1.57

16.67
9.92
10.85
6.64
8.92
9.50
8.44

2.37
3,05
3.54
2.07
2.02
2.53
2.83

Jan. '53-Sep. '65. .
Jan., '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '65. ..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..

.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.73
1.45
1.50

.52
.42
.49
.66
1.22
.62
.72

1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
1.01
2.24
1.96

2
3
2
3
2
3

.79
.86
.87
.64
.47
.84
.67

3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
3.38
2.67
2.49

1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.37
1.45
1.69

21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
13.82
16.89
16.89

4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
5.21
6.00
4.84

5.72

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
81. Consumer prices
86. Exports, excluding military aid . . .
861. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
and parts
862 Export orders nonelectrical machinery
87 General imports
91. Defense Department obligations, total. . . .
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
99. New orders, defense products
92. Military contract awards in U.S

.85
.86

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123 Canada
122. United Kingdom
121 OECD European countries
125 West Germany
128. Japan
126 France
127. Italy

.

.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.23
1.38
1.40

3

Average duration of run
(ADR)

I/C

.

Quarterly series

Period
covered

cf

T

C

i/c

for
QCD
span

QCD

Cl

1

C

QCD

LEADING INDICATORS
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
18 Profit*? npr dollar nf ^alp^ manufflrttirinff

IQ'53-IQ'66.
IQ'53-IVQ'66
IQ'53-IVQ'66

4.70
2.95

7.69
4.26

.•61
.69

l
l

.61
.69

2.94
3.06

1.32
1.27

3.33
5.20 •

2.94
3.06

4.18
5.71
10.97

2.69
3.60
6.31

2.99
3.70
7.99

.90
.97
.79

l
1
1

.90
.97
.79

2.36
2.50
2.20

1.30
1.31
1.22

6.50
4.23
3.67

2.36
2.50
2.20

1.54
1.28
1.37
6.63

.34
.35
.30
1.20

1.45
1.14
1.32
6.38

.24
.31
.23
.19

l
l
1
l

.24
5.78
.31
3.47
.23 10.40
4.17
.19

1.33
1.33
1.21
1.32

7.43
5.78
10.40
8.33

5.78
3.47
10.40
4.17

10.36
5.56

IQ'53-IMQ'65
IQ'53-1Q'66
..

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49
*50
57
97.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Final sales
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing -

IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
1Q'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-II1Q'65

See footnotes at end of table.




73

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued

Quarterly series

Period
covered

r/c

Cl

1

c

I/C

for
QCD
span

QCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations
*67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans

.26

1

.26

5.56

1.47

5.56

5.56

.69

.57

1

.57

2.89

1.28

4.23

2.89

.96

1.80

.54

1

.54

2.38

1.47

3.33

2.38

3.38
3,81

1.82
3.02

2.31
2.09

.79
1.45

1
2

.79
.47

2.55
1.51

1.44
1.19

3.50
4.00

2.55
3.06

2.34

.87

1.89

.46

1

.46

2.62

1.34

4.58

2. '62

3.21

.77

IQ'53-IVQ'66

.85

.-40

IQ'53-II!Q'65

1.99

IQ'53-IQ?67
|Q'53-1Q'67......
IQ'53-IVQ'66

IQ'53-IIIQ'65 ...

2.99

OTHER SELECTED U.S. .SERIES

82 Federal cash payments to public
101. National defense purchases, current dollars

*Series included In the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.

The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued
as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic
Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October
1957).
"Cl", is the average month-to-month . (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividlng_the cyclical component Into the seasonally
adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component,
a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MOD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series/ In deriving MOD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb.; Feb.Mar.j etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
All series with an MGD greater than "5" are shown as "6", Similarly, "QGD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series. It Is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and
remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or Irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted

74



shown for series when MOD is "6" or more.

series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD Is "6", no I/C_ratio
isoshown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.

"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and'.the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms
equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.

A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of.whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of Cl is 1.69 for the series on average
weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (series
5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as
expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown In the
next two columns, 1.42 for I and 12.67 for C, suggest that the
seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated Into an essentially random component and a eyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 3.97 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 2-month moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series (2 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 months. The increase in
the ADR from 1.42 for Cl to 3.97 for the MCD moving average
indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the
MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical
trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month
changes In the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes

Monthly series

Period
covered

Unit of
measure

Cl

1

c

r/c

MCD

I/C
for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

MCD

LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials supplies
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries.
98- Change in money supply and time deposits —

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bit. doL

3.58

3.68

Jan, ' 53-Sep '65 ... do ...
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil.dol..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
percent .

1.51
2.56

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 ... do ...
Jan. ?55-Dec. '66 Ann rate
bil.dol..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 ... do ...
Aug. '59-Dec. '66 ... do ...

1.44

.74

4,87

5

.98
1

1.51 1.43

9.06

2.65

6.08
7.60

3.00
3.10

*113. Change in consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans

4.97
3.51

6
4

C )
.98

1,67
1.69

1.50
1.62

2.58

.29

8.91

6

C1)

1.42

1.37 10.87

2.59

3.15

3.17

,33

9.61

6

C1)

1.39

1.39 10.87

2.47

1.31

1.22

.34
.31
.46

3.58
2.56
4.56

4
3
6

.93
.92
.90

1.52
1.65
1.60

1.39 11.92
1,49 10.13
1.66 . 8.00

2.69
3.13
4.15

Jan. '5,3-Sep. '65 Mil. dol . , 98.01 78.89 - 46,86

85. Change in total money supply
33. Change in mortgage debt

.29
.13

1.68

3

.68

2.03

1.60 10.13

3.49

Jan. '53-June '62 ...do...

3.23

3

.97

1.82

1.61 9.42

2.64

.46

.48

.87

.79

2.22

2.10

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93. Free reserves
OTHER SELECTED U.Sr SERIES
88 Merchandise trade balance

Quarterly series

Period
covered

55.87

58.44

Unit of
measure

T

Cl

17.28

c"

r/c

T/c
\f \j
QCD

for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries

IQ'53-IQ'66.... Ann. rate,
bil. dol.'.

1.43

2.28

1.37

1.04

2

.48

1.73

1,37

4.00

2.83

2
2

.45
.55

1.67
2.00

1.25
1.41

3.13
2.67

2.72
2.56

1

.76

2.17

2

.71 1.87

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES

89. U.S. balance of payments:
a Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis

IQ'53-IIIQ r 65... Mil. dol.. 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
IQ'60-IQ'66.... ...do... 492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06

95. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product acct. . . IQ'53-IQ'66.... Ann. rate,
bil.dol..
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
IQ'53-1Q'67.... ...do...

2.50
4.79

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid_ the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is_ expressed in
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the




1.37
3.37

1.81
2.26

.76

1.49

1.37

3.71

2.17

1.33

2.80

2.29

1

Wot shown for series when MCD is "6" or more.

seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning
part 1.

as in

75

Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1966 TO JUNE 1967)
19f>7

16

19(

Series
July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

82.6

105.2

84.5
98.8

76.7
92.2

86.9
93.9

105.3

139.0

86.3

99.3

91 3

83 2

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1

102.4 105.6

14 Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2

111 2 111 8 100 3
104 3 111 1
96.7
106.1

81.1

30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1
110.7
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
3
institutions and life insurance companies ....... 34.
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans 4 .
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U.S
112 Change in business loans5
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
862. Index of export orders, nonelectr ical machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 6

Jan.

June

May

95.4

96.7

80.2

Q1

J
J

i &~]

~\

Q

QfL

7

QQ

Q

C

QC

T

QQ •<.
yy O

119 T
J

QQ )
•\-\r\ n
QQ

/

QQ .f^.
yy o

i n^ "3

QQ n
4-6

92.1

91.9

Q*; ^ 200 1

Q7 9

Ql Q

QQ

QJ

on n
7Q 17

i nn i QQ "3
i nn *5 QO o
y<. &

QQ Q i ctn
yy .0 loU.ft
o

f\

on T

QQ

QQ

f.

153.

99 8 101 3 99 9
67 8 101 1 105 0

n

1 n n Q I r\r\ o
.
QQ Q luu.y -LUU.J
Q

25.

99 3
75 7

yj .v
Q-D

-13.

109.5

109.4

QO

oc q

QJ

9.

89 8 101 9 106 6 107 7 114 4 107 <S "tm ft

QQ L

Q

100.4 113.1 110.3

88 7

on o ~i ~i n o

-9

93 7 100 4 120 0
106.1

87 3

f.
net n

QC

81.2

Q*; Q

99 3 100 0 101 7
94 0 88 2 100 2

i nn o 1 nn -\ QQ (L
s 1 no n

-390.

-336.

92.6

79.2

106.1 104.4

309.

98 8 100 1
98 9 98 9

1 on "5 i r\j

78.4

June

-96.

97.2

m

t/o o

QQ

82.3

91.5
98.5

May

15.

98 9
74 0

99 8 100 7
93 3 199 6

QQ

97.4

98.6

92.3

91 2 102 0 109 6

Apr.

40.

157.

133.

154.

Mar.

109.1 92.7
146.3
112.0 95.2 117.2

99.8

1 .
109 8 101 3 114 0 121.6 1 10

107 9 101 6 100 1 Q7 ^

-] nn n

84 4

Feb.

"I

QO

rt

QQ Q

on n

100 i 7

1 j c r?

QQ .0 T nn ^ 1UU. J 100. <; 100.^
yy £. lUU.o i r\n *2 *i r\n ^5
Q£ pi
Q e O T no r\ 1 on o i r\j o
iuy .u 1/iU. J 104. 3
oo.u
-1 ^vpl

rt

y^.x

1
"t m ^ i n^ 9 i n^ Q no i 1 nn
+18
-15

j

T nn

Q

NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method
U Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
a
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to "be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method n seasonal adjustment program.
4
Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.)*
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method I seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.

76



Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May

1920-July 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938

Feb.
Nov
July
July
May

1945-Oct.
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957- Apr
1960-Feb.

*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

*47. Index
of industrial
production

-31.6

-18.0

-5.9

*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1

(NA)
-0.3
+2.3

-31.6
-10.4

-51.8
-31.7

-28.0

19454
1949
1954 5
1958
1961

-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9

-31.4

(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4

Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions . ,
4 contractions since 1948

-5.6
-6.5
-3.6

-8.5
-9.1

-14.1
-5.7

-16.0
-16.0
-8.8

-8.9

-1.9
-2.1
-1.9

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4

*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales

-21.9
0.0
+0.9

-49.6
-11.9

-50.8
-10.9

-10.9

-4.0
-4.7

*54. Sales
of retail
stores

July
July
Nov.
Mar
June

1921-May
1924-Oct
1927-Aug.
1933-May
1938-Feb.

1923
1926
1929
1937
19454.

Oct
Oct'
Aug
Apr

1945-Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May

1948 5
1953 .
1957
1960

Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4 exnansions since 1945

*4L Employees
in nonagri. establishments
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

+40.2
+45.9
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9

+17.5
• +13.0
+13.0

*47. Index
of indus.
trial
production

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1

+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7

(NA)

+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)

-2.2
-2.6
-1.4

-2.8
-2.8
-1.3

-2.0
-2.4
+0.1

-7.0
-5.8
-7.0

*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+28.8
+11.8
+11.4

+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1

+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+ 13.3

+50.0
+22.6
+16.2

+35.2
+26.6
+P3-6

+12.3
+12.1
+11 .6

+ 27.5
+20.9
+ ?£_fi

+26.7
+21.3

+29.6
+19.4

+ 9S

?

2

2

+3.3
+3.6
+3.3

+0.2
+0.9

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2

+3.3

Rate at
trough

+2.2
+4.1
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8

(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3,1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q) 1

Rate at
peak

2

0.0
-43.5
-17.3

-4.3
-1.9

(NA)

(NA^

+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4

4,0
3.2
2
1.9

2

2

3

0.0
11.2

+8.8

11.9
?5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

1.1
2.6
4.2
5.1

3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6. 9

3.5
3.9
4.0

7.2
7.6
7.2

3

3.8

*43. Unemployment rate, total

Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak

Change
in rate,
peak to
trough

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2

0.0

*43. Unemployment rate, total

*54. Sales
of retail
stores

+15.7

Change
in rate,
trough
to peak

2

Rate at
trough

2

11.9

Rate at
peak

+69.2
+105.4

-8.7
-3,6
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

+63.8
+25.6
+20.3
+11.9

+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3

3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4

+ 20.5
+16.0.
+ 9T.O

-3.7
-2.6
_?.o

7.1
6.3

3.3

6.7

•3.Q

+9.9
+3.6

2

2

2

5.5
4.1
25.4
20.0
2

2,3.2

2

1.9
3.2
11.2

2 3

1.1
3

3.6

2.6
4.2
5.1

3.7

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of T or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA=Not available.
•"•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table "because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:

National Bureau of Economic Research^ Inc.




77

Appendix F.-H1STORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
6.

1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 .... •
1960 ....
1961....
1962 . . . .
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....

Apr.

1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec,

14.21
11.41
11.76
10.89

8.38
6.92
11.79
10.75
12.66
9.71

8.34
6.77
12.00
11.98
11.85
9.99

7.95
7.12
10.95
11.55
11.95
9.94

7.72
7.00
11.88
'11.18
12.89

15.46
11.06
14.45

14.21

9.99
13.48
15.72
15.16
11.62
15.52

10.31
13.92
14.61
15.64
11.67
16.90

9.72
14.96
15.04
15.14
12.66
16.98

10.17
14.24
15.69
14.11
11.69
17.08

9.75
14.51
15.16
14.58
12.44
16.30

10.29
14.84
15.06
14.23
13.13
16.72

10.50
14.98
14.75
13.43
13.40
16.08

10.45
15.04
17.73
14.03
13.32
14.62

11.69
•15.74
14.78
13.64
13.64
15.25

12.64
15.74
14.84
12.96
14.63
15.48

12.60
11.14
16.42
15.74
15.73
15.78
13.58
12.54
14.62
15.36
14.57 \ 15.76

15.68
13.95
17.70
18.47
19.74

15.52
14.31
17.70
18.23
19.50
21.13

15.27
14.53
17.15
18.78
19.26

14.92
15.51

15.36
15.59
17.22
18.74
19.94
20.99

15.43
15.89
16.65
17.68
20.02

15.25
15.92
16.91
18.28
21.25
22.20

15.65
16.12
16.59
18.06
19.34
21,51

15.69
15.97
16.55
18.24
19.91
22.16

14.50
16.26
17.29
18.62
19.62

14.62
16.74
16.73
18.11
19.45
22.39

21.27

7.50
7.08
7.62
14.08
11.06

...

...
...
*..
...
...
...
...
...
...

...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...

6.16
8.35
13.84
12.94
13.69

8.06
6.02
9.23
13.25
10.86
13.58

8.85
5.75
9.39
12.88
13.00
13.20

8.85
5.93
11.52
12.61
12.04
12.35

8.00

17.02
19.04
20.46
22.04

21.71

33.7
42.7
41.7
54.4
70.1
84.7

69.5
72.2
71.8
83.2
82.6
92.9
99.2
110.2
112.8
122.4
120.7

47.2
41.3
38.6
56.9
68.5
70.9
73.0
69.9
79.9
83.3
82.0
80.9
94.7
92.9
99.9
108.3
117.0
118.9

...
...

69.5
70.9
73.3
83.8
85.2
95.8

...
...
...
...

94.5
108.1
110.0
115.4
119.3
129.6

...
...

...
...
...
...
...

96.1

21.31

8.92
6.85

...
...
...
...

...
'

...

.. .
...
...
...
...

...
...
...

-,14.86
17.26
1703
17. ^
20.72
23.40

...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...

44.8
37.9
39.0
58.6
76.0
. 70.7
71.2
70.9
81.0
85.6
80.4
83.7
98.8
98,5
106.6
111.6
114.3
130.6

42.1

36.4
...
...

...
...
...
....

...

44.1
39.1
63.7
69.9
77.2

42.7
42.5
67.3
77.0
71.8

.**
...
*..
...
...

75.3
74.7
72.8
83.7
93.8
96.0

...
...
.. .
...
...
...

...
. ..
...
...
...

64.4
70.8
80.7
82.7
93.6
94.1

...

.. .
. .,
...
...
...
...
...
...
. ..
...

94.7
104.5
111.2
120.5
120.2
128,4

.. .
.. .
...
.. .

...
.. .
. ..

96,4
106.5
115.8

...
*..

...

119.5
119.3
132.4

...

...
. ..
...
...

...

...
...

* ..
...

...

Federal cash receipts from the public (Ann. rate, bil.

...

22.42

9.96

Federal cash payments to the public (Ann. rate, bil. dol.]

35.5
40.8
44.4
46.4
70.8
75.1

83.

1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....

July

7.82
6.67
7.86
14.64
12.81
13.34

7.46
7.14
7.56

1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....

1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965....

June

Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.)

82.

1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....

May

...

...
...

...

...

...

...
...
...

...

...
...
.. .

...
...
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
.. .

43.1
43.4
45.1
61.1
68.5
70.1
62.9
71.9
79.2
84.7
81.2
93.1
100.1
99.2
109.7
114.8
113.6
122.6

..,

dol.)

...
...

...
...
...

.. .
* *.
...
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
...

...
...
.. ,

70.0

...

•..
...

43.9
43.4
49. 3
63.1
75.0

...
.. .

...

64.8
73.6
79.7
82.5
81.8
93.9

...
.. .
...

98.7
101.2
109.0
116.4
115.4
122.7

...
. ..
...
.. .

(June 1967)

78



Appendix F.-HISTOR1CAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
84.

1948 . . . .
1949 . . . .
I960 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961
1962
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....

+3.5
-2.3
+8.1
+0.1
-0.6
-15.2

...
...
...
...

...
...
...

-6.3
-10.3
-4.5
-5.4-1.8

+11.1
...
...
...
...
...

>.
...
...
...
...

...
...
...

...
...
...

...

...

...
...
...
...
*.
• *.
.**
...
...

89B.

+2.7
+4.2
+5.9
-14.0

...
...
...
...
...

*»
* *.
. *.
...
...

+1.7
0.0
+7.7
+1.8
-4.8
-12.1

...
...
. .*
...

...
*..
...
*..
...

-4.8

+4.3
-9.6
*
...
...
...

**
...
•••

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

-3.4
-3.8
-5.0
+1.0

>.
...
...

*
...
* *.
...
...

+6.7
-0.7
+6.0
-2.6

-1.4
-7.1

*•
...
...
...

...
* *.
...
...

...

...
. *.
...

-12.4
-2.8

+6.4
+1.0

-12.6
-2.9

+5.4
-5.3
-1.5
-5.7
-6.6
-5.8

...
—
*.
...
...
...

•
...
...
...
...

+1.8
+0.7

...
...
...
...

+7.3
-4.2
-2.0
-1.8

+0.4
+2.8
-1.0

...
...

-0.2
-11.8
-0.2

...
...
...
«•
...
...
...

+2.3
-5.3

-6.8
-3.1
-3.9
-9.7

Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments — liquidity balance basis (Mil. dol.)

-396
-843
+292

!!.
...
...

-741
-137
-183
-524

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

...
...

-249
-388
-143
-14
-927
-1,062

-529
...

July

Federal cash surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

+1.8

89A.

1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....

+11.7
+0.5
-5.8
+10.5
-2.3
-4.2

June

May

Apr.

-312
-90
-407
+511
-609
-951

...

-841
-532
-806
-1,236
-334
-818

...
...
...
...
...
...

...
...
.. .
...

-864
+49
-354
-1,195
-614
+199

!!.
...
...

*..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

...
...

*..
. *.
.. *
• ...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...

-554
-333
-322
+452
-902
-1,191

.« »

...
...
...
...
...

.. .
.. .
.. .
•••

.. .
.. .
...

-1,003
-686
-380
-136
-518
-457

...
...
...
...
.. .

*»»
...
...
...
...
...

-1,623
+355
-750

...
...
.. *

-695

-842
+282

**«
. ».
...
...

-451
-354

...

-401
-338
-96
-481
-1,039
+539

. .*
.. .
...

-1,193

.*»
* **
...
...
.. .

-1,201

-663
-104
-1,334
-259

Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U . S . balance of payments — official settlements basis (Mil. dol.)

1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....

.*
. *.

1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....

•
...
...
...
...

...
...
...
...
...
...

1960
1961
1962 ....
1963
1964
1965

...
...
. .»
.<
...
...

-337
-816
-426
-1,141
-313
-834

...
.. .
...
...

...
.. .
...

...

...

...

...

.. .
...
...
...

...
...
...

...
.. *
.. .
...
...
.. .
..
....
...

...
...
...
...
...

...
...
...
...
...

...

...

...

.. .

...

...

...

...




...

...

...
.. .

...
...
...
...
...
...

. . •

...
...
. . .

...

...
...

...
...
...
...

...
.

...

-645
+659
-356
-945
-379
+239

...

...

...

../

...

...
...
.. .
...
...
...

...

...

.. .
.. .
...
...

.. .
.. .
...

...

-1,001
-518
-1,008
-58
-239
+207

...
.. .
.. .
...

...
.. .
...
. *.

...

. *.

.. .
...

...

-1,420
-672
-915
+100
-618

...
. *.
.. .
.. .

-916
Uune 1967J

79

INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDF
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)

Economic Process Group and Series Title
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Tables

Charts

Timing
classification

Appendixes

Page

Issue

I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

*1.
*30.
2.
5.
3.
301.
46.

Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
Nonagricultural placements, all Indus.
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising

L ...
L ..,
L .'..
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...

9
9
9
9
9
17
17

511.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*502.

Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over

C ...
C ...
C ...
C ,..
C. '
C ...
Lg...

17
17
17
18

64

66
67

IB
22

29
29
29
29
29
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
37

70-1
70-1

70-1
70-1
70-1

72
72
72
72
72
72
72

72
66
72
66
72
76
66

76
76

72
72
72
72
72
72
73

77
77

Sept. ' 6
6
Oct. '631
!
Sept. 66
July '631
Sept. ' 6
6
Apr. '67
Fefc. '641

77
72
72
72
66
72
76

Apr \ 6
'7
Sept, *$6
Feb. 167**
Feb, '67
Mar, ' 4
61
Feb. '67
Apr. '67

71
72
70
72
72
77
72
72

Aug.
July
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Apr.

74
66
78

June '65
Aug. '631
June i67

78
68
66

76

May ' ?
6
Nov. ' 4
6
Dec. '631

II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

49.
*50.
*47.
*52.
53.
*816.
57.
*54.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Persona) income
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr,
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
III.

C.
C ...
C ...
C ...
C.
C ...
C ...
C ...

18
18
19

66
66

19
19
19

66

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35

70-1
70-1
70-1
70-1
70-1

73
73
72
72
72
72
73
72

77
77
77
77
77
77

'65
'66
'4
6
'65
'65
'67
'65
'6
6

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

*38.
13.
*6.
94.
*10.
11.
24.

Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, mfg.
New orders, mach. and equip, industries

L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...

10
10
10
10
10
11
11

9.
7.
*29.
96.
97.

Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg

L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...

11
11
11
20
20

64

*61.

Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip

Lg...

22

Lg- - -

22

67

L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...

12
12
12
12
12
13

505. Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend

64

29
29
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
36
36
37
37

70-1
70-1
70-1

70-1
70-1

72
72
72
72
72
73
72

76

72
72
72
72
73
74
73

78
74
74
66
68
65
76

75
75
72
75
72
72
75
73
73

71
72
68
64
65
66
66
73
72

May
July
June
June
Nov.
June
Apr.

'67
'65
'65
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'7
6

IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

21.
*31.
37.
20.
26.
32.

Change in business inventories
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods

*7L Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value

L ... 13

Lg... 22
Lg... 22

64

31
31
31
31
31
31
31
37
37

70-1

70-1

76

Aug. '65
Nov. '66
June '631
June ' 4
6
June ' 4
6
Mar. '641
Dee. '631
Apr. '67
Apr. '67

'Series preceded by an asterisk (*} are on the 1966 NBER "short list* of 25 indicators.
.
L = leading, C- roughly coincident, Lg-lagging, ^unclassified ("other selected U.S. series" and "international
comparisons*). * Appendix G m this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of B'CD~(appendix G).

80



SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Timing
classification

Economic Process Group and Series Title
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Charts

Tables

Appendixes

F

1

2

1

3

2

4

5

B

D

C

E

Page

Issue

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Dl. Average workweek
', . . , , .
„

tl

D6. New Orders .:

1-month
9-month..

45
45
45
45
45
45

9-month. .
1-mnnth

9-month. .
Dll. Capital appropriations
D19.. Stock prices
D23. Industrial materials prices

1-quarter
3-quarter. .
1-month' '
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month, .

-

D34 Profits mfg
D35. Net sales, mfrs
D41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
D47, Industrial production

1-month. .
6-month
1-month
6-month . .
9-month..
6-month . -

061. New plant and equipment expenditures

82



,

48
48
49
49
48
48

45
45
45
45
45
45

48
48
62
49
62
49
49 54-5
49 54-5

45
47
47
46
46
46
46
47
46
46
46
46
47

-

52-3
52-3
61
61
52-5
52-5

49
51
51
50 56-9
50 56-9
50 58-9
50 58-9
51
50 54-7
50 54-7
50 58-61
50 58-61
51

73
73
73
73
72
69

-

76

'66
'66
'65
'65
'65
'64

73
73
72
69
72
73

-

Sept.
Sept.
May
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.

'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65

69
70
70
73
73
73
70
68-9
73
70
78
78
69

Oct.
Nov.
Nov..
Sept.
- Sept.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr:
Nov.

'64
'64
'64
'Of
'66
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'67
'67
'64

SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)

Economic Process Group and Series Title
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Appendixes

Tables

Charts

Timing
classification

Page

Issue

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

*23.
*19.
*16.
22.
18.
*17.
55.
58.
68.
*62.
81.

Industrial materials prices
<.,
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate.
-.
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities.
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices

L ...
L ...
L ...
L
L
L ...
c ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
U .,.

13
13
14

65
65

14
20
20
23
23
24

65
67

15
15
15
15
15
16
16

68

32
32
32
32
32
32
36
36
38
38
39

70-;
70-:

70-:
70-1

70-1

72
72
73
73
73
72
72
72
74
73
73

76

66
66
71
74
71
72
73
72
72
72
73

Jan. ' 4
61
Apr. ' 4
61
Aug. '65
Sept. !65
Apr. ' 7
6
Feb. ' 7
6
Feb. ' 7
6
Apr. ' 7
6
Apr. ' 7
6
Nov. ' 6
6
Feb. ' 7
6

73
72
71
71
75
73
66
71

Nov. ' 6
6
Nov. ' 6
6
Apr. '67
July ' 4
6
Apr. ' 7
6
Feb. »67
Nov. '631
Apr. ' 7
6

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT

98. ^ange, money supply and time deposits
B5." Change, total U.S. money supply
33. Change, mortgage debt
*113. Change, consumer installment debt
112. Change, business loans 2
110. Total private borrowing2
14. Liabilities of business failures
39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over
93.
114.
116.
115.
117.
66.
*72.
*67.
118.

Free reserves
Treasury bill rate2 2
Corporate bond yields
Treasury bond yields 22
Municipal bond yields
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields, residential2
VII.

L ,..
L ...
L ..,
L ....
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...

C ... 21
C . . . 21
C ... 21
C ... 21
C ... 21
Lg... 23
Lg... .23
Lg... 23
Lg... 23

65

67

33
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
36
36
36
36
36
38
38
38
38

70-1

70-1
70-1

75
75
75
75
75
73
72
72
75
72
72
72
72
73
73
74
73

76
76
76
76

76

66
71
72
72
72
70
73
70
72

Oct.
July
Aug.
July
July
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
July

'4
6
'4
6
'6
6
'4
6
'4
6
'4
6
'7
6
'4
6
'4
6

79
79
74
73
77
78
74

June
June
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.

'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67

FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
Merchandise trade balance
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles
862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
87. General imports

U ...
U ..!
U
U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...

24
24

39
39
39
39
39
39
39

75
75
75
73
73
73
73

U !!! 26
U ... 27
U .. - 27
U .. - 27
U . - - 27
U ,.. 27

40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40

75
75
74
74
74
73
73
73
73

72
79
78
78
74
70
70
66
70

Aug.
June
June
June
Apr.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
Sept.

'65
'6?
'67
'6?
'67
»64
'64
'64
'64

U ...
U ...
U ,..
U ,..
U ...
U ...
U.

41
41
41
41
41
41
41

73
73
73
73
73
73
73

67
67
75
67
68
75
68

Oct.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.

'64
'64
'67
'64
'64
'67
'64

25
25
25
25

76

VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

95. Fed, balance, nat'l, income and prod, account
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit

U ... 26
U ... 26

83. Federal cash receipts from public

U .,.

82.
101.
91.
90.
99.
92.

Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases, current dollars
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S

123.
122.
121.
125.
128.
126.
127.

Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial

26

IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

production, Canada
production, United Kingdom
production, OECD-Europe
production, West Germany
production, Japan
production, France
production, Italy

28
28
28
28
28
28
28

*Series prec led by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "shortlist" of 25 indicators.
pleading, C=roughly coincident, Lg Blagging, U unclassified ("other selected U.S. series" and "international
comparisons").
Appendix G in this issue. ^A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G).




81


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102