Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1966
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June 1966 DATA THROUGH MAY Series ESI No. 66-6 New Features and Changes for This Issue Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis Punch Card File of Business Cycle Series iii iv iv ©©©©trnpfti]©^© ©[nKo] [^^©©©^ItyiD 3 ©© Introduction Method of Presentation Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Analytical Measures of Current Change Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns Charts How to Read Charts 1 and 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 1M©0© (D)©G© TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series 8 10 24 ©©0 [^©©maD0©© TABLE CHART TABLE TABLE / I BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS 3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present 4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes 5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components ABOUT THE COVER— Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period; the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has begun and rise after it ends. 38 39 42 46 CONTINUED CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough Dates TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference Trough Dates Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle Series Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series Series Finding Guide -___ 58 62 63 65 66 67 70 71 72 73 r ) A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc. Changes in this issue are as follows: 1. Series 89b, Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments—official settlements basis, formerly available beginning with the first quarter of 1964, are now available beginning with the first quarter of I960. 2. Appendix F includes historical data for series 89b. ;JL The July issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled for release on July 22. HI Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October 1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available. The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains 1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length. Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However, the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please be sure it is suitable for your computer. A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for each index. A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145 component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings or tabulations of these data. The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month. Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75. IV Students df economic conditions describe the business cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in production, employment, income, money flows, prices, and other economic processes. The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway, it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry, from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is reached. Even while expansion is widespread during the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and continue to spread even faster after the peak has been passed. But some activities continue to expand during the general contraction. Before long these expansions become stronger and more widespread. When they begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway. This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic. The causal relations among these various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods, the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs, interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and of debts. tivity. The series have been grouped and classified by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or "lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as follows: i> NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains to activities in the labor market, another to orders and contracts, and so on. i> NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and retail sales. t> NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are included in this report. Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States are presented. The list of series covered and sources of the basic data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Although this pattern has been characteristic of American economic history? today many economists do not consider it inevitable. Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided a list of those significant series that usually lead, those that usually move with, and those that usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac Data are shown in this report in three general categories, as follows: [> Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data are shown for business cycle indicators, additional U.S. series with business cycle significance, and industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations, L> Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).— These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, determining the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy, and pointing to developments in particular industries and places. [> Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).— Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle. In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data, key information, and adjustment factors. The business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred. Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the time and contraction, 44 percent. Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences in weather conditions during the year and^from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain considerable variation attributable to the number of working or trading days in each month. An additional adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates. Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving. In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau of the Census, studies have been started on some series to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods do not at present make any adjustments for such variations. Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data are used only for those series which appear to have no pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or which are based on unpublished source data are not shown. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually longer than a singL month because month-to-month changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change from the same month a year ago), and is different for different series (see appendix C for ,MCD values and method of computation). MCD is, on average, the first span of months for which the average change for the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by the same MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month moving average are commensurate with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular series, such as business failures and Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for such smooth series as industrial production, MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations. Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually larger than those computed from historical series and shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a fairly long period, one covering both expansions and contractions. Since the pace of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times. Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely to be too high during the early stages of recovery when expansion has usually been rapid and too low during the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance has usually been small. This limitation should be borne in mind when making use of this measure.1 Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of the current changes compared to previous changes, the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places. 1 For a more complete description of MCD and its use in studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961). Timing Distributions Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table 3), Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented during contractions. To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and at their peaks. To compile timing distributions for the current cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted series—that is, series with negative conformity to the business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month. The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and highlight the current high values during the expansion. The highs designated during the current cyclical phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective business cycle turning point. Interpretations of timing distributions must be made in light of the fact that a contraction following a high value reached several months ago may be the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be reached in some future month. In short, when the percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a short reversal in the upward movement. Diffusion Indexes Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of groups of economic series. They express, for a given aggregate series, the percent of the series components which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the aggregate and they measure how widespread a business change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity. The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped according to the timing classification of the NBER. For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March, etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans, depending upon the irregularity of the series. The indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes, (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and 4-quarter spans. Recent research has shown that the longer-span diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements maybe significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest available information on changes over that span. If a significant reversal has taken place within that span, the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage of the best features of each in interpreting current changes. Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series, it means that the diffusion index has been computed from components of the indicator series; for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new numbers. Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises (or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag in recognition of actual developments. Diffusion-Index Components Many of the component series used to make up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible, recent basic data for the components are shown in part A. In part B, directions of change in these components are indicated for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index, for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.) This table provides a convenient view of changing business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went up, which went down, and how long such movements have persisted. The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another. In forming a judgment about the current intensity and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the behavior of the various series in the current business cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are .made in different ways depending upon whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or contraction. Expansions are compared in one way by measuring changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month in the current expansion (shown by number of months from the February 1961 trough) are compared with the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type of comparison is designated as changes computed from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle peak, and how the current situation compares, in this respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. Expansions are also compared by computing changes from reference trough levels and reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the level at the trough. The same situation exists here as for the comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons show the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. Contractions can be compared by computing changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over equal spans from previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is designated as changes from reference peak levels and reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made during a contraction period. In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the basis of reference dates, which are the same for all series, similar comparisons may be made using the specific peak and trough dates identified for each series. (Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group of series.) Such comparisons would be based on changes from specific peak levels and specific trough dates and on changes from specific trough levels and specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle comparisons are not currently included in this report, they have been shown in previous issues. Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919; therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the period covered by the series used currently. The principal substitutions of this type are as follows: 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (prior to 1948: Residential building contracts, floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.) 41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment) 52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data as published by Barger and Klein) 54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department store sales) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker wage cost per unit). Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time series and cyclical comparisons. Historical Time Series (charts 1 and 2) These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the background of expansions and contractions in general business activity from 1948 to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for a new contraction will be entered only after a trough has been designated. Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series. The scale selected for each series is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series can be compared with each other only where scales are identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help in using these charts. Cyclical Comparisons (chart 3) This chart compares the movements of selected series during the current business cycle with their movements through the corresponding phases of previous business cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons over the course of the whole business cycle. These comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles. Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle. Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point on the vertical scale. A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present. Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER. CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series See back cover for complete titles and sources of series. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by NBER. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("12" = December) Solid line indicates monthly data, (Data may be actual monthly fig ures or MCD moving averages. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("II" = second quarter) Broken tine indicates actual monthly data for series where an MCD moving average * is plotted. Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Parallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.) Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. Series plotted to different scales are not directly comparable. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. Solid line with plotting points indi cates quarterly data. CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Scale shows percent of components rising. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Arabic number indicates .latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("12" = December) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. * Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or 2Vz months, respectively, behind the actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("111" = third quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various intervals. This line is also used to indicate anticipated quarterly data. Section ONE charts and tables LEADING INDICATORS Sensitive employment and unemployment New investment commitments New businesses and business failures Profits and stock prices Inventory i n vest men tf buying policy/ and sensitive prices ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Production Income and trade Wholesale prices LAGGING INDICATORS Investment expenditures Cost per unit of output Inventories Debt Interest rates OTHER U.S. SERIES Federal budget and military commitments Reserves, money supply, and financing Interest rates Foreign trade INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries TABLE ^^ BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 bed CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS Average percent change2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg Hours 2 Accession rate, manufacturing Per 100 empl . . 30. Nonagri. placements, all industries Thous 3 Layoff rate, manufacturing Per 100 empl . . 4. Temporary layoff, all industries Thous 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State do unemployment insurance 6. New orders, durable goods indus Bil. dol do..... 24- New orders, mach. and equip, indus. . . . 9. Construction contracts, commercial Mil. sq. ft. and industrial. floor space . . 10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip Bil. dol 6 11. New capita! appropriations, mfg . .do . 7. Private nonfarm housing starts Ann. rate, thous 29. New bldg. permits, private housing .... 1957-59-100 .. do 38. Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations Number 14. Liabilities of business failures Mil. dol 15 Large business failures No. per week . . 16. Corporate profits after taxes6. Ann. rate, bil dol 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost6 mfg 1957-59-100.. 18 Profits per dol. of sales mfg Cents 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, 6 corporate, al! industries . Percent 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks* 1941-43-10... 21. Change in business inventories, all Ann. rate, 67 industries ' bil. dol 31. Change in book value, 7manufacturing and trade inventories do 20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7 do. ... tories of materials and supplies 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories Percent 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitdo.. . ments 60 days or longer * 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries* do 25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable goods industries Bil. dol 23. Industrial materials prices* 1957-59=100.. NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thous 42. Total nonagri cultural employment do 43. Unemployment rate, total Percent 40. Unemployment rate, married males do 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State do 46. Help-wanted advertising 1957-59=100.. 47. Industrial production do 50. GNP in 1958 dollars 6 Ann. rate, bil do! do . 49. GNP in current dollars 6 6 do 57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y do 52 Personal income do 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . . do 54. Sales of retail stores Mil. dol 55. Wholesale prices, except farm products and foods 1957-59-100.. Mar. 1966 Feb. 1966 Unit of measure Apr. 1966 41.6 4.8 600 1.1 106 41.5 r5.2 589 rl.l 93 219 May 1966 1953 to 1965 (without sign)3 May '65 to date (without sign)4 0.5 4.8 1.8 9.2 17.1 0.2 5.6 2.9 6.2 16.0 May '65 to date (with sign)5 Current percent change 2 Feb. to Mar. 1966 -0.2 +0.1 +8.3 +1.5 -1.8 -0.2 0.0 +2.5 +0.7 +12.3 Mar. to Apr. 1966 Apr. to May 1966 -0.2 0.0 -9.6 "(NA) -1.7 -11.4 (NA) +9.1 -7.5 +26.0 41.5 P4.7 522 pl.O 100 P41.4 (NA) P513 (NA) 74 182 179 185 5.0 5.2 +1.3 +16.9 +1.6 -3.4 23.74 4-58 r24.89 r4.59 r24.l6 r4.82 p24-10 P4.85 3.8 4.2 2.3 2.8 +1.2 +1.5 +4.8 +0.2 -2.9 +5.0 -0.2 +0.6 67.48 5.49 p6.17 69.09 r5.66 71.63 P5.94 9.3 4.7 10.4 7.2 3.6 3.8 +2.7 +1.6 +2.2 +2.4 +3.1 +3.7 +4.9 (NA) (NA) 1,349 105.1 109.6 17,868 94.59 rl,538 114.1 109.2 17,305 98.73 rl,478 rl03.1 108.4 17,022 106.93 pi, 275 P96.3 (NA) (NA) 92.41 7.2 3.6 0.8 2.5 18.7 8.0 4.5 0.9 2.6 18.8 -0.9 -0.9 +0.3 +0.6 +0.2 +14.0 +8.6 -0.4 -3.2 -4.4 -3.9 -9.6 -0.7 -1.6 -8.3 -13.7 -6.6 (NA) (NA) +13.6 36 36 37 38 12.3 10.1 +0.9 0.0 -2.8 -2.7 r!05.6 P105.9 +0.7 -0.7 +0.3 91.60 86.78 -4.1 +3.1 -5.3 -4.9 +1.3 (NA) r48.3 r!05.6 9.9 r!06.3 - (NA) (NA) P13.4 92.69 88.88 +8.1 5.6 0.6 6.0 3.1 0.6 2.1 +3.1 +0.2 +2.1 4.3 1.3 +1.3 2.5 2.4 -0.2 2.3 1.9 +0.6 +13.3 +8.4 P+9.7 (NA) 3.6 3.6 0.0 +1.2 r+0.8 P+3.4 (NA) 1.5 1.2 +0.2 -0.4 +2.6 (NA) 46 53 51 52 6.5 6.4 -0.8 +15.2 -3.8 +2.0 67 68 69 70 5.3 2.2 +0.7 +1.5 +1.5 +1.4 85 86 82 75 7.5 6.0 +0.8 +1.2 -4.7 -8.5 +1.31 122.9 r+1.65 123.5 p+1.02 118.3 0.48 1,3 +0.04 +0.34 -0.23 -0.40 -2.6 62,501 69,079 3.7 1.9 r62,9!8 69,072 3.8 1.9 r62,933 69,317 3.7 1.8 p63,099 69,155 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.4 3.9 5.4 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 191 r!51.9 201 r!53.3 189 r!53.6 185 p!54.8 r+1 . 42 121.5 1.2 +0.1 +0.5 -1.6 0.4 0.4 3.3 5.6 +0.4 +0.3 +1.1 +2.5 +0.7 0.0 -2.7 0.0 0.0 +0.4 +2.6 +5.3 +0.3 -0.2 -8.1 0.0 4.2 3.1 +2.6 +8.7 0.0 3.0 1.0 3.8 0.9 +2.1 +0.7 +5.2 +0.9 -6.0 +0.2 -2.1 +0.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.1 +1.6 +2.2 +2.1 3,397.1 3,390.1 P3, 348.1 563.1 561.4 P565.5 151.2 rl51.6 P152.4 25,536 r25,020 p24,424 1.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.7 1.2 +1.3 +0.6 +0.7 +0.4 +4.1 +0.7 +0.9 +1.1 -0.2 +0.3 +0.3 -2.0 -1.2 +0.4 +0.5 -2.4 nio/.a n 9 n 9 +n o -4~n 9 -4-n i _i_n e; 633.6 713.9 705.8 3,263.9 557.4 149.9 25,263 103^8 0.28 10 A. 0 TO/,,? +11.5 bed BASIC DATA JUNE ]966 TABLE CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued Average percent change2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Feb. 1966 Mar. 1966 Apr. 1966 May 1966 58.00 r99.3 r99.0 r99.9 a59.60 P99.9 do Bil.dol p!07.6 69.0 r69.6 P70.3 do Mil. dol 23.6, 68,^58 23.8 69,107 P23.8 69,638 Unit of measure 1953 to May '65 to date 1965 (without (without sign)3 sign) ^ May '65 to date (with sign)5 Current percent change2 Feb. to Mar. 1966 Mar. to Apr. 1966 Apr. to May 1966 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment6. 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 68. Labor 6cost per dollar of real corporate GNP 64. Book value of mfrs.11 inventories 65. Book value of mfrs. inventories of finished goods 66. Consumer installment debt 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans* Ann. rate, oil, dol 1957-59=100 .. 3.2 0.6 4.3 0.6 +4.3 +0.1 -6.3 -6 '.9 +2.8 0.0 (NA) 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 +0.5 +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 +0.6 +1.0 +0.8 +0.9 0.0 +0.8 (NA) (NA) 2.0 3.6 +3.6 +5.3 4.4 3.9 4.3 9.6 8.6 12.9 +2.0 +2.1 +0.2 +7.7 +4.2 -5.4 -9.5 +17.2 +38.5 +10.4 -11.3 -32.8 (NA) 5.55 Percent OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 82 Federal cash payments to public 83 Federal cash receipts from public ..... 84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 7 95- Balance, 6Federal income and product account '7 90. Defense Dept oblig,, procurement 91 Defense Dept. obligations total 92 Military contract awards in U.S 99. New orders, defense products 93. Free reserves*7 85 Change in money supply 7 Ann. rate, bil. dol .....do do... do MiLdol do do Bil.dol Mil. dol Ann. rate, percent 38. Change in 7money supply and time deposits . 110 Total private borrowing 6 Ill 112 113 114 115 116 117 do Ann. rate, mil dol do. ... Corporate gross savings 76 Ann. rate, Change business loans bil. dol do Change consumer installment debt 7 . . . Treasury bill rate* Percent do Treasury bond yields * do Corporate bond yields* do Municipal bond yields* 118 Mortgage yields * 86. Exports, excluding military aid 87 General imports 89. U.S. balance of payments 6 ' 7 : a Liquidity balance basis b Official settlements basis 81 Consumer prices 94 Construction contracts value 96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus 97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg. do Mil. dol do do 142.5 133.0 -9.5 153.5 138.6 -14.9 P162.5 r+0.2 1,420 1,947 2,299 (NA) 2.5 27.4 3.3 22.0 -1.2 +8.0 +37.1 +18.1 5,179 2,596 3.04 -107 5,879 2,357 r3.38 -246 6,444 3,466 r3.29 r-268 (MA) (NA) p2.76 p-355 13.9 24.5 22.5 98 8.1 11.8 11.6 47 +13.5 +3.5 +6.1 -9.2 +2.0 +11.2 -139 -15 (NA) +9.6 (NA) +47.1 -2.7 -16.1 -22 -87 -2.88 +8.52 +13.44 p-11.28 3.11 10.24 -0.26 HI. 40 +4.92 -24.72 +1.56 +7.56 +14.64 p-1.08 2.52 5.67 +6.00 +7.08 -15.72 P138.9 p+23.6 P153.4 PH4.2 p-9.2 P 72,436 p57,372 +7.21 +6.46 4.67 4.61 5.07 3.64 +8.87 +7.79' 4-63 4.63 5.28 3.72 (NA) 6.00 2,334.8. 2,594.4 1,992.9 2,072.7 +521.7 +341.9 do do r-563 r-245 1957-59-100 . . do Bil.dol do 111.7 157 65.11 112.1 158 r66.76 P 20.32 +6.60 +6.37 4.61 4.55 5.24 3.56 (NA) 2,331.2 2,138.2 +193.0 112.6 161 r68.!8 P+10.93 (NA) 4.64 4.57 5.37 3.65 6.32 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) p69.20 -0.09 11.5 4-3 9.9 1.6 +2.4 +1.6 1.39 0.87 6.7 1.6 1.4 2.5 3.60 0.90 2.1 1.1 1.7 2.2 -0.01 -0.14 +1.5 +0.8 +1.5 +1.2 0.1 3.8 3.0 58.4 0.6 3.8 5.3 128.8 341 (NA) 386 770 -263 -161 0.2 6.6 1.4 6.6 0.3 3.9 1.6 6.0 +0.2 +1.1 +1.6 +6.0 +1.66 -2.27 +1.33 -1.42 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 +0.4 +4.1 -0.8 +2.2 -4.3 (NA) +0.6 (NA) +0.4 +11.1 -10.1 +3.2 +1.8 +4-0 +25.3 H179.8 -328.7 +0.4 +0.6 +2.5 +4-3 +0.4 +1.9 +2.1 +4.33 (NA) +0.7 +0.4 +2.5 +2.5 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) +1.5 r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. 1Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4, 5,14,15, 40, 43r and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications. ^his average is based on month-tomonth (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign. 5 Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter. Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus Or 8 minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent. This 9 balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter. BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators 1. Avg. workweek, prpd. wkrs,, mfg. (hours) 2. Accession rate, mfd. (per 1:00 employees) 30. i Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous 3. Layoff rate, mfg. 100 employees- inverted scale) 4. Temp. layoff, all indus. (thous.-inverted . MCD moving avg.-5 5. Avg. weekly initial claims,! State unempl bed bed CHART JUNE 1966 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED NBER Leading Indicators—Continued = l oo New orders, dur. goods indu »••» J . New orders, mack and equip. Indus. 9. Cons'tr. contracts, corti. and indus. (mil. sq. ft* of f floor area. MCD moVmg~dvg.-6 term^""™T ^ 1 , 1 1 u °? || A. 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. Idol.) 41444144. New| capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol|) i_JJlLL.li 7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann. ra|e, millilpns l] c-s 29. New bldg. permits, private housing units U o^ 11 BASIC DATA JUNE 7966 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued 38. i Index of net business formation (1957-59=100) 13. New bus. incorporations (thous.) 14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dolj inverted scale. MCD moving avg.-6 term) 15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.> Inverted scale. MCD moving avg.-6 term) bed bed BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued 16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (arm. rate, bif. dot.) ?- 18. Profits per dollar of sales> mfg., 0 (cents) 22. Ratio, profits to income originating corporate, all industries, Q (percent) ___ j 19 r Stock prices, 500 common] stocks _J__" (index: 1941-43=10) CHART BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices 20 21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.) 10 0 .. Change in book ^a!ue, rpfg. and i trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dol. MCD moving avg.—5 term) 20. Change injjbook v|ilue, mfrs.' inventories of materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dpi. MCD movijng avgj;—6 terfjfi) 37. purchased materijals, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying [policy, (irod. mtjs., percent reporting commitments 60 dpys or (onger 32. Vendor performance, percerjt reporting slower deliveries i ' ' " ;i in unfilled! orders, dur, goods Indus, (bil. dol tuinn .nvt/i^iLA tarml:._-. -_„ 1 tndustrial materialk prices (index: 1^57-59=100) bed 1966 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT— Continued NBER Roughly Coincident |41. " , Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions) . Total nonagri. employment (millions) 43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale) 40; Unemployment rate, married imales (percent-inverted scale) 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State (percent-inverted scale) ^ Helfcvwinted advertisingJindefeJ957-59=100)1 J JjiimrjiMuluIuJUuuiL Indicators T CHART BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued 16 47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100) 50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit doL) 49. GNP in current dollars; Q (ann. rate, fail, dot 250 , f I I 1c | i! ! -I f I il ' f iilil'iiuiIiMijJ f' di di of p '..., ;4; v i w nif L'I u u • j ;j. ^ ....,; ™..t.7.. vv ,. ; W3ii " i)^SO'1pfc^i\( lf?; ^f^^fr^Ji^'fH^ *'''' '^; ' ' * ^ "~ " S:3~T5"to LW ^^ 1] c^?; c a ^ bed CHART JUNE 1966 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued 51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except New York (ann. rate, tril. 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 j 3.0 —J 2.8 1 2.6 2.4 2.2 f.-7-..Jj 600 550 -i 500 " 450 170 160 150 - 140 s 130 I 52. Personal income i (ann. rate, bil. dol.) \< i, 53. Labor income in mining, mfg,, constr. 120 J 28 26 ^ | (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 24 22 I 20 —a -g 18 16 55. Wholesale prices fa'rm prod, and fiods (Jex: 1957-59=10^1 ' Y\ I! !l I 1 . 1 . It. I !Li 14 „ j 120 =i 110 100 J «^ 90 j| 80 - ' Jnyiiiin'inlli ^ J i f h Liu w inniL v iiJ b lif iiii!fniLnilnnniiprinlif'rrlu( 17 BASIC DATA JUNE bed 1966 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued NBER Lagging Indicators Investment expenditures I |i -•'•' I- ' 61.-Bus. expend, new plant pnd equip., Q (anm rotej bil. dol. 62. Labor 4s* per unit of output, mfg. (index: 195^-59=100) 110 105 _ 100 -i 95 s Cost per unit of output I; 85 68. Labor cost per dol. of real corpl GNP, Q (index:1 1957-5,9=100) 1 I ' 64. Book, value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.) 65. took value of mfrs/ inventories, finished goods (bil. doll) 20 15 V— I J_ I' 66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.) 40 30 L _. 67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent) i ,\ T il ! [ bed CHART BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series 82. \ ' Fed. cap payments to public (ann. rate, fail dol MCD miSwing avg,—6 t|!erm 83.! Fed MCD moving avg.-6 Iterm j 84. | Fed. cash surplus or deficit (pnn. rate, bil. <Jol j 6—terrjri moving avg.) ! " 95. Surplus or deficit Fed. incomeJind acct., QJcurn, rate, bil. dol 90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (fail. dol. MCD moving avg.—6 term) - - — /, ft 9lHbefense Dept. iblig., tbtal (bi __ ___ . 92. Military contract awards in JJ.L.'.'(fcr MCD moving avg.-6 termjj BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued 85. Change in money supply (ann. rote, percent, MCD moving avg.—6 term) Change in mpney supply and time deposits (ann. rote, percent. MCD moving avg.—6 term) 110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 111. Corporate gross savings, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.) ilt2. Change mlinjsiness IfliOTisI (tftttiT=|ote, bil."dot. MCD moving avg.—5 terAi) i ! - _ j --. ;! . . i . „.)* 13. CljgngejA-tonsumer Instil!men! j bed bed JUNE ,966 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued 114. Treasury bill r;ate {percent) 1151 Treasury bond; yields (percent] Corporate bond yields (percent) Municipal bond yields (percent) 118 Mortgage yields (percent) CHART CHART BAS|c DATA JUNE 1966 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Foreign trade 86. Exports, exc, military aid (bil. dot MCD moving avg.—4 term) 87. General imports (bil. dol. MCD moving avg.-4 term) j 88. |i Merchandise tirade balance (bil. dol 4—term moving avg.) 89, U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.) a. Liquidity balance basis 81. Consumer prices ; (index: 1957-59=100) 94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100. MCD moving ;avg.-5 term) 96. iMfrs. unfilled ers, du>. goods indus. (bil. dol.) 97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol. " "~ " b. Official settlements basis bed bed CHART JUNE 1966 BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued International Comparisons production 47. United States (index: 1957-59=100) 123. Canada (index: 1957-59=100) 122. United Kingdom (indJx: 1957*59=100) .. w^A 121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100) 125. West Germany (index: 19^7-59=100) 126. France (index: J957-59=100) BASIC DATA JUNE J966 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES NBER Leading Indicators Year and month 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) (Hours) 30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate, tural placements, manufacturing all industries, (Thous.) (Per 100 employees) 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs x 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (Thous.) (Thous.) (Bit. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1962 Ju(y August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1966 January February. . . March April. May June 40.5 40 3 4.2 4 0 40.6 4.0 40 2 40 4 40 2 3 9 3 8 3 8 40.4 40.3 40.4 40.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.0 552 554 555 557 546 545 541 543 553 575 533 525 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 40.1 40.6 40.6 40.8 40.6 40.7 40.7 3 8 18 18 40 8 4 0 40.6 3.9 40 .'7 4 0 40.9 41.2 4.1 534 532 523 522 529 518 523 507 518 514 533 52A S?? 549 1 1 i "1 i 1 / / i S i / -i A 40.4 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.6 40.7 40.5 40.6 41 2 41.2 41 41 41 41 3 0 1 0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.0 4 0 4 4 L 3 0 0 3 9 / l 4 5 41 0 L 1 41 0 40.9 41 2 41 4 41.4 L ? 41.5 (HI 41. 6 Al <5 41 5 P41.4 4 5 L 6 5 0 4 9 4.9 4.8 [Hjr5 . 2 p/.7 (NA) 557 553 551 557 565 6/3 2.1 2- 4 1.9 2 0 2 0 19 19 2.1 1.8 1.7 18 1.7 1.8 16 1.7 16 19 1 5 15 16 15 16 16.91 16.59 128 303 127 127 125 133 120 305 300 304 299 310 17.29 16.73 17 33 3.07 2.94 2.98 3.05 3.16 3 07 152 121 107 138 95 92 131 130 108 135 134 97 310 301 288 293 288 284 281 290 285 282 276 301 18.47 18.23 18.78 19.04 18.74 17.68 18.28 18.06 18 24 18.62 18 11 17.97 3.25 3.21 3.22 3.35 3.42 3.29 3.33 3.31 3.42 3.44 3.27 3.61 116 125 98 122 111 121 118 91 121 92 89 109 284 270 277 265 262 257 260 ?// 245 ?/Q 262 19 74 19 50 19.26 20 46 19 94 20 02 21 25 1Q 3/ 3 62 3 41 3.46 3 61 3.93 3 "92 3 77 19 19 19 20 3 69 7Q o) ^ 248 261 16.55 91 62 45 72 0-57 pi p7 91 13 91 71 937 22 04 opy ppy oqi 7; S 01 S pfl QQ 91 31 99 9O 3 77 3 7Q 3 88 3 Q9 3 QA S37 69Q S/7 1 1 3 l?/ 110 117 1 09 140 1 91 11 n 8/ #/ POQ 99 y9 C.// 3 1 9O 91 9 o 4 .pe 1 99 "3Q 563 1 3 1 OK. 206 93 y n / ^O 4* J-& 570 11 I l l •HI 600 1589 •522 P513 11 106 6PR 535 633 5/« s/l 1 7 3 rl 1 >T|pl 0 (NA) Q-3 •i nn LtD74 222 91 Q n so [77] -i r-jn Lttl-L (7 1 86 PI •il .^1 21 99 1 A 93 £;£ pq o/ HTl T* 9 / S?Q 1 A r<4.1b T*9/ n?y in 3 80 y 09 y no y H7 y / r\Q -aer 4. J55 ; iA y Tc y CO 4* 5o / / ry ry ye ^# tjo #p !Hlp4.85 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadju$ted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. x Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 24 bed BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings (Mil. sq. ft. floor space) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (BiLdol.) 11. Newlyapproved 7. New private capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling tions, 1,000 manu- units started facturing corporations * (Ann. rate, thous.) (BiLdol.) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 38. Index of net business formation 13. Number of new business incorporations 14. Current liabilities of business failures (1957-59-100) (1957-59=100) (Number) (Mil.dol.) 1962 July August September October November December. . 1963 January February March April May , * June July August September October November December 1964 January February 44 61 45.11 39 42 40.23 47 00 51 39 45 78 44 93 43 88 50 81 43 73 45 43 3.84 3.82 3.75 3.98 4 28 3 96 3 94 3 91 4.08 4 17 4 32 4.56 51 07 L 38 / 1 / i 11 41.08 *n March April May Jung July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May. June 42 20 41 89 3.72 3.61 3 56 3.66 3 82 3 99 40.56 42.69 40 96 0*1 1 8 /i 53.48 46 22 47 82 52 62 47.72 51.41 53 75 49 61 58 88 4.36 4.63 4 64 4.52 4.53 4.51 4.56 4-92 4 94 53.20 58.12 54.04 64 26 56.13 55.28 55 90 49.60 63.48 60 49 60 33 64.36 4.72 4.67 4.84 4-98 5.02 4.81 5.16 4.90 5.15 5 13 5.05 5.35 60.04 67.48 69.09 5.44 5.49 r5.66 ±Dp5.94 (NA) £71.63 (NA) 2.81 3 35 2.80 3 30 3 72 4 10 1,409 1,531 1 300 1,410 1 63/ 1 521 108 7 107.1 109 1 107 2 113 0 112 0 97 7 98 4 98 S 98.5 98 0 98 3 1,285 1,438 1 486 1,652 1 676 1 550 1 574 111 108 112 113 120 119 116 113 121 123 119 123 8 2 9 6 0 3 5 5 0 6 9 7 98 9 100 2 100 5 99 2 99 6 100 0 100 7 101 7 101 4 101 7 101 4 101 8 14 924 15 390 15 563 15 305 15 682 1 5 ^36 15'431 116 8 [3124 6 103 1 102 8 i £ o^n "i A m fl 1 PI 1 122 I 676 1 706 1 592 1 522 mil 7^1 / 39 4 81 5.00 4.52 4.99 5.79 5.85 (Er6 32 p6.17 -) 70^ 1 ^71 15 171 15 056 1 S 2/9 14,892 U U QSI 9Rci 16 093 15 16 1 *i 15 689 ?76 7S9 867 107 121 106 129 96 99 98 85 02 87 62 61 146 46 93 05 9/ 1 ? 88 15 "M *5 0*5 91 144 [H352 94 07 50 86 52 QQ 9? 255 72 87 17 QI AQ 1 1 q oQ T i n A7 7 1 09 Q -] c QQO ID, 77»C 1,506 1,496 1 593 1,475 1,489 1 , 422 1,495 1,480 1 575 113 6 112 9 115 1 111 5 113 4 109.7 109 1 110,8 105 4 103.7 105 3 103 9 104.0 103.6 104.8 106.6 105.8 106 8 16 180 15 917 15 919 15 979 16 074 16,605 16,493 17,103 17 154 107 10 97 92 1 36 19 1,417 1,468 1,465 1,532 1,501 1,539 1,447 1,409 1,436 1 380 1 531 1,735 112.9 108.0 112.0 104 7 109 4 110 6 109 7 107 4 104 1 111 1 113 1 116.9 107.5 107.6 106.1 105 3 105 0 106 8 106 4 106.4 105 3 104 6 105 3 105.9 17,275 17,367 17,112 • 16 504 16,043 16 , 671 16 369 16,957 17 138 16 744 17 418 16 , 999 84.54 107.57 146 29 79 51 139 09 135 66 120 64 128 98 108 56 85 67 66 65 128.06 1,585 1,349 rl,538 ri, 478 pi, 275 111 4 105 1 114 1 r!03 1 p96 3 108.7 IH1109.6 109.2 108.4 (NA) 17 677 SJ17 868 17 305 17,022 (NA) 125 90 118 97 111 126 14 99 59 98 00 49 111 67 94 59 98 73 106.93 92.41 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high values are indicated by [H] for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by [H]. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. -'-Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of rra change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products.u (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations:' First Quarter 1965.) 25 BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month 15. Number of 16. Corporate business failures profits after taxes with liabilities of x $100,000 and over (Number per week) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, manufacturing 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries (1957-59=100) (Cents) (Percent) 19. Index of stock 21. Change in prices, 500 common business inventories after valuation adstocks* justment, all industries (1941-43=10) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1962 JU|y August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November ..;..,.. December 1966 January February March April May June 38 45 40 46 42 37 49 43 42 40 51 38 39 42 43 42 38 38 41 41 38 44 39 3Q 44 /o 31 5 31.8 31 2 32.6 101 0 101.5 100 8 100.8 33.8 36 7 37 n **• T7 ^ • .• i? T7 ft /o 101 6 101 9 101 3 101 9 im 7 1 f^jpi rt 1m o im A i on rt i pipi A T1U1 m .oo i no A QC 1 /-io A y / -i * *' 3Q / ^ 1% AO /8 37 36 36 37 QO 11 2 8.1 11 1 8 1 10 8 8.5 11.2 8.6 11.2 8 8 11 3 9 0 11 9 1 pi o o -LU^}. J5 1 1 c. 44.5 * * * / C Q 4? .y -i r\e fTjIv./ c> q 11.7 n 9 .0 11.7 * *: Q .. . 8.7 11.7 9.8 13.0 9-3 12.9 9.4 13.0 9.5 13.3 i 105.4 _1 pi/r A rllo.D rr7iT>T nA Q _-i r\c / riU:? .0 p!05.9 +6.4 +4 5 +4.7 +5.8 +8 1 77 3Q +3 3 7Q Q/ 8 .y i n i yo 104. i ny u 1U4.V 105.3 T nA n lUo.O 65 06 65 92 65 67 68 76 70.14 70 11 69 07 70.98 72 85 73 03 72 62 74 17 +5.2 78 80 103.9 104.4 103 ,1^ 56 97 58 52 58.00 56.17 60.04 62.64 76 / £ i i nq ;}^ lUjj. 103.0 1 n /q 8 1 102 . 8 / q A qq in 99 7 100 1 100 5 100 8 101.3 102 2 101.7 100.9 32.8 42 /? /n 42 100 2 100 0 100.7 100.2 100.4 99.9 rrri Q f~. •ju y.9 [HJP13.4 80.72 80.24 83.22 82.00 83.41 8^.85 85.44 83.96 86.12 86.75 86.83 87.97 89.28 85.04 84.91 86.49 89.38 91.39 92.15 91.73 [n]93.32 92.69 88.88 91.60 86.78 3 86. 57 +4".l +3.8 +7.5 +8.8 +6.4 ... +7.6 51+10.1 +8.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by (E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by 0. Series numbers arefor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 FHU February 1962. 2 Average for June 15, 16, and 17. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month 31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies 1 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer* 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries* 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 23. Index of industrial materials prices* (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent reporting) (Percent reporting) (Percent reporting) (Bil. dol.) (1957-59=100) 1962 +3.9 +2.0 + 5.6 + 5.5 +1.2 +5.1 -0.3 +1.8 -0.2 +0.5 -1.7 44 45 43 46 50 49 58 August September October November December 52 52 55 52 51 44 44 48 48 48 48 -0.25 -0.60 -0.36 +0.21 -0.40 +0.91 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.9 96.4 95.8- 1963 January February March April May , * June July August September October November December +3.1 +2.5 +3.0 +4.6 +2,7 +5.1 +6.0 +1.8 +5.6 +7.1 +9.6 +7.2 +0.6 +0.4 -0.2 +0.9 -0.3 +0.7 -0.5 +1.7 -0.4 +1.7 -0.2 -0.7 47 48 47 48 55 56 55 50 49 46 43 43 50 55 54 53 52 57 54 55 56 53 54 55 50 52 54 60 58 54 42 48 52 48 48 46 +0.96 +0.68 +0.94 +0.85 +0.33 -0.58 -0.54 -0.05 +0.38 +0.10 -0.09 -0.40 95.5 95.1 94.4 94.5 95.2 93.9 94.2 94.2 94.1 96.3 97.3 97.7 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December + 5.1 +2 3 +3 7 +8.0 +4.3 +2.2 +1.2 +2.9 +10.7 +0.4 +9.4 +14.6 -1.9 -0 5 0 0 -1.0 -0.1 -0.7 -1.6 +1.3 +2.6 +4.3 +3.5 +2.0 42 50 54 53 51 55 57 56 60 58 60 58 53 54 56 59 58 59 58 58 61 60 64 65 55 54 60 60 63 55 59 65 74 +0.40 +0.57 +0 16 +1.04 +0.38 +0.81 +1.26 +0.06 +0.77 +1.00 +0.27 +0.55 98.5 98.5 98 9 102.4 100.9 101; 4 102.5 105.7 +11.2 +5 0 +1 +0 +? +5 60 61 65 £G 6*5 68 67 6^ 62 62 63 61 79 +0 32 . n &i AA 4-O 70 +0 84 . n ^n +0 58 A-3 July -2.4 72 70 66 108.2 112.0 113.2 112.5 1965 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1966 January. February March April May. June +13 8 +8 7 +Q / +6 1 +11 6 +8.1 +3 4 +8 2 +10 2 [ED+16 2 r+13 1 +13.3 +8.4 p+9.7 (NA) 0 4 ^ 3 +1 S -0 +0 +1 +3 5 7 4 1 4-0 Q +1 0 +2 0 ^7 (H36l 60 58 ^7 60 <S8 / *> en /s +0 9 +1 2 r+0 8 yA rri-3 / cr-i (NA) /A £-3 CO 7D 66 . n TO 6/ 4-0 39 Ao 4-1 9/ An , -| A? AA i pi rrrt 63 79 4-1 11 A Q T -i e q A. m lie o mo -i 1 c r\ n -| e c 5 m-t 11>. PlQ -4-1 97 #C 4-1 "31 82 7^ 116 7 od 7/ [HlsA 7 113 9 / / A9 68 67 68 /• f. 69 E 70 11 n A m fu"l TM-1 T-4-1 A^ yO p+1 02 -\ on ^ 1 9? Q FH! 1 oq c 1 91 9 ^ 1-Cl. a 118 3 ns.3 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by 0. Series (<numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available. 1 [E = December 1961. Average for June H, 15, and 16. 2 27 TABLE BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators Year and month 41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments (Thous.) 1962 July August September October November December 1963 January Februsry March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April may. June ::::::: July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May.....;::::;.. June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May , 3 June 55,637 55 703 55 796 55,830 55 B79 55 880 55 897 56 027 56 14.2 56 353 56,488 56 562 56,670 56,727 56 856 57 008 57 038 57 205 42. Total non43- Unemployment agricultural employ- rate, total ment, labor force survey (Thous.) 62 547 63 018 63 l6l 63 no 6? Q~l Q 63 33/ 63 63 63 6 "3 086 ?1 Q /6P 71 6 63 57Q 63 7Q1 63 Q7/ 64 089 5 7 6 /, 8 5 5 7 5 Q 5 '7 5 7 5./ 0 5 Q 5 7 5 7 5 5 5 • c2 6/ 306 6/ ? / 5 6y 3/7 6/ 3QQ 5 6 c2 . o d 5 c (Percent) T 6 3 .nf Q C -5. ;> •3 e Q C j?. !? 3 .C!? 0 0 J. / 0 17 ^. / 7 b A >. 3 .4j ^ 4 y j>. •3 Q Jj. ^ Q 9 Q 1 3 ,piU 3-1 .1 3 3 T .,? T O 57 606 57, 694 57 781 57 864 6/ 6?1 65 D8/ c L. D .O 5 P . )4 3 .-11 65 208 65 765 65 77 y 5 ! o ,Qy <c 58 033 65 y 79 58 190 58,301 58 499 58 370 58 879 5Q 163 65 59 ?Q5 66 71 Q 4-0 2.7 59 581 59,814 59 846 60 032 60,290 60 501 60 6?1 60,756 61 001 61,472 61 884 66 718 p. 5 .u 2 .D 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2 / .6 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 57 25? f^O ~\ } 3 A o ep)-j T*AO O1 O ro*;, yis r6? Q33 rum63 pjQQ 1 5 •4 5 1 y 5•4 581 5 PI 65 682 5 1 c -i 2 . -L 65 65 66 66 66 66 66 67 6Q7 7 "3D 133 /?6 8Q5 Q1 Q Q/7 / 3/ A7 Q7Q 67 81 5 67 87Q 68 m O 68 641 5 . /£ 0 / Q Pi 4. 7 5 •U y S 1 rj i c* 4- o y t 4.0 / *7 4. / 1 ^ 4. ;? 1 c 4->> y / 4. 4 4. ... / o 4 -2 4.1 69,286 4.0 3.7 09,155 2•V Q 2 .rt0 2 / . U 2rt . 0 2 r - i .7 68 Q^ 69,079 69,072 iUij ~u~ ov AQ ,*3n ?1""?/ AQ ice 46. Index of help45. Average wanted advertising weekly insured unemployment 1 rate, in newspapers State programs (Percent) (Percent) 5 5 5 5 5 5 40. Unemployment rate, married males y -i 3.8 r—-10 r; [Hj.3.7 4.0 o A 2 .8rt 3.0 2.4 o /: 2 ,D /: 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 \H\1.B (1957-59-100) i f\ 4. ^ / > 4.4 i i 4- 4 / c T1 i0 n 1 -) pijj lUo -i f\rj 107 -I pir; 1U / 4. 5 / A 4.6 107 y ""7 4. f e!07 > rt 47. Index of industrial production (1957-59=100) 119.0 119 .0 119.7 -1 -1 f\ -1 119. 1 119.8 119.4 107 111 112 118 119.8 120.6 121'. 9 122.7 124.4 125.6 125-6 IOC / 125.4 125.7 126.1 126.1 127.0 3.8 3.6 / 3 .6X 3 .6 3-5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 116 117 118 120 118 121 124 123 126 127 134 137 127.9 128.4 129.3 130.8 131.8 132.0 133.3 134.0 134.0 131.6 135.4 138.1 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 137 145 148 143 145 146 145 152 160 168 181 186 138.6 139.2 140.7 140.9 141.6 142.7 144.2 144.5 143.5 145.1 146.4 148.7 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 LKI2.1 184 191 IS201 189 185 150.2 r!51.9 r!53.3 rl53.6 EH]pl54.8 4. o I / 4.0 4.4 4.2 1 Q 4. 2 < i 4.1 / ~) 4.1 / -i 4. 1 4.0 i PI 4.U 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.0 3 .0 rj X e!07 e!09 elOS 109 1 f\c 105 104 i no 109 10nc: 1 p NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by (E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40t 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by 0, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; 4< a", anticipated; and "NA", not available, 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 28 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued Year and month 1962 50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. do!.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) 57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, (series 49 minus all SMSA's except New York series 21) (224 SMSA's) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) July c o o f. August September October November December 564 4 559 2 538.5 572.0 565.6 54.1.2 577.0 572.5 544 9 583 1 578 4 553 7 593 1 587.3 560.0 603 6 595.5 567.1 614.0 610.7 575.9 624.2 620.1 (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 52. Personal income (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2,311.3 2 268 8 2 ',236 !'? 2 , 340 . 7 2,351.5 2,324.9 443 4 /// 6 2,416.2 2,345,9 2,357.2 2 , 472 . 5 2 419 2 2,368.2 2,561.0 2 , 463 . 1 2,559.0 2,605 5 2,527.4 2,610.2 456.6 454.9 456.7 457.2 53. Labor income 54. Sales of in mining, manu- retail stores facturing, and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 55. Index of wholesale prices except farm products and foods (1957-59=100) 118 8 118 7 119.5 118.9 119.7 119.7 19,597 19,654 19,880 19,901 20,062 20,204 463.1 464.8 467.1 469.3 473 2 474.7 478.9 120.1 120 0 120.8 120 7 122 0 123 0 123.3 123 4 124.4 125 1 125.7 127.1 20 , 319 20 , 226 20 , 374 20,292 20 178 20,517 20,634 20 581 20,489 100 5 100.8 100.9 100.9 100.8 ?h 77A 100.9 20 727 20,952 100.9 101.1 2,571.5 2,590.3 2,597 3 2,693.8 2,688.4 2,607.4 2,746.7 2,681.7 2,755.9 2,771.5 2,730.3 2,803.5 481.2 483.2 484 5 437.7 491.2 492.8 496.1 499.5 501.7 502.8 506,6 512.0 126.5 127 9 128 3 129.5 130.3 130.9 131.5 132.6 133.8 1-32.6 135.1 137.3 21 021 21 408 ?n ^n^ 21 , 442 21 , 701 21 797 21,862 22,227 22,333 21,429 21 690 22 766 101 1 101 2 101 2 101.2 101.1 101.2 101.2 101.3 101.5 101 6 101,7 2,803.3 2,845.1 2,923.8 2,962.0 2,871.5 3,019.4 3,021.0 3,018.8 3,022.6 3,068.9 3,178.9 3 , 249 . 6 515.4 515.2 517.8 520.5 525.0 528.5 530.4 532.1 545.4 541.3 546.1 550.9 137.3 138.4 139.7 138.8 139 6 140.4 141.4 142 1 142.2 143 6 145 6 146.9 22,936 23,262 22,856 22,849 23 317 23,322 23,668 23 585 23,753 24,194 24 , 647 24,816 101.7 101.9 102.1 102 2 102 3 102.6 102.6 102 8 102.9 102 8 103 2 103 1 552.5 557.4 561 4 563.1 [H}p565.5 147.9 149.9 151 2 rl51.6 [Bjpl52.4 447.0 447.9 450.4 452.6 100 9 100 8 100.9 100.9 100.8 100,7 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February March • April May June Julv August September October November December 582. 6 634.8 631.0 584.7 641.1 633.6 597.7 657.6 648.8 603.5 668.8 662.4 613.0 681.5 673.9 624.4 697.2 687.1 [S633.6 HD713.9 [H]705.8 1965 January February ...... March April May June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May June 3,198.1 3,263.9 EH]3, 397.1 3,390.1 p3, 348.1 460 o 25,023 25,263 [£125,536 r25,020 p24,424 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.4 101 o 103.4 103.8 104 o 104.3 [H;pl04.8 X 104.9 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by (ED for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by {H], Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available. '•Week ended June 14. 29 BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued NBER Lagging Indicators Year and month 61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1957-59-100) 68. Index of labor 64. Book value of manufacturers' cost per dollar of real corporate GNP inventories (1957-59-100) (Bil. dol.) 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods 66. Consumer installment debt (Mil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities* (Percent) 1962 July August September October November December 38.35 37.95 100.7 100.9 100.4 100.6 100.3 100.7 103.3 103.3 56.9 57.0 57.3 57.4 57.6 57.8 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.8 45,200 45,588 45,838 46,206 46,689 47,174 57.9 58.0 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.7 58.9 58.9 59.1 59.3 59.8 60.1 19.9 20.0 47,659 48,154 48,631 49,152 49,593 50,079 50,655 51,207 51,631 52,194 52,648 53,202 60.0 60.1 60.3 60.5 60.5 60.4 60.5 60.8 61.0 61.8 62.4 62.9 21.2 21.4 63 2 63.4 63.7 64 0 64 3 64 6 65 4 65.8 66 3 66 6 67 2 68 0 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.3 22 4 22 3 22 5 22 5 22 6 22 7 4.99 5.02 1963 January February March .' April May June July August September October November December 36.95 38.05 40.00 41.20 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November December 42.55 43.50 45.65 47.75 100.6 100.2 99.7 99.5 99.3 98.7 99.3 100.1 99.7 99.8 100.0 100.0 99.3 99.1 99.7 99.3 99.3 100.0 99.7 99.5 100.3 SllOl.2 99.5 98.9 104.0 104.2 103.9 104.7 104.2 104.6 105.1 106.3 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.6 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.2 53,689 54,259 54,865 55,333 55,907 56,375 56,911 57,410 58,004 58,475 58,836 59,454 5.00 5.61 5.01 5.00 4.99 4.99 4.98 5.00 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 49.00 50.35 52.75 55.35 98.7 99.1 98.7 99.4 99 3 99.0 98 1 98.9 99.5 98 6 98 6 97 8 105.1 106 1 106.2 106 4 ?? Q OQ 1 60,069 60,666 61,308 62,053 62,709 63,304 64,028 64,684 65,370 65,990 66,689 67 323 4.97 4 99 5 00 ... c 07 1966 January February March April May. June [EJ 58. 00 X a59 . 60 a6l.65 98.9 r99.3 r99.0 r99.9 P99.9 [R]pl07 6 •68 6 69 0 r6>9 6 fu]r)7r) 1 (TJA> oq £ ?? A 00 fim-nP^ 0 & (MA1) 67 920 68,458 69,107 [n]69,638 (NA) ... fnle cc NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p'r, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"-, not available. X 3d quarter 1966. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 30 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The anticipated figure for the 4th quarter is 63.55. bed BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series Year and month 82. Federal cash payments to the public 83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit (-) 95. Surplus (+) or deficit (-), Federal income and product account (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 91. Defense 90. Defense Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1962 July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January Marrh April May June July August September October November December 0 7 9 8 7 0 111.3 108.6 109.3 107.6 110.6 108.9 -1.7 +0.9 -3.6 -6.2 -8.1 -6.1 112.4 109.6 116.5 113.8 116.7 115.7 120.2 121.6 119.7 122.1 119.3 117.2 107.3 108.5 109.1 108.1 114.1 112.8 113.7 117.3 113.4 115.3 115.4 118.7 -5.1 -1.1 -7.4 126.5 119 7 121 0 122. A 118.9 116.5 122.2 121.0 117.3 118.4 112.9 126.6 115.1 119.6 116 3 121.1 108.4 113.5 114.7 112.4 113.7 115.7 115.4 115.1 122.0 122.2 117.8 125.6 129.3 133.9 119.5 128.8 136.9 124.3 146 3 126 6 110.9 117.6 128.2 144.4 118.1 129.3 113 107 112 113 118 115 -2.6 -3.2 -2.5 -5 7 -2.6 -2.9 -6.5 +1.8 -4.3 -6.3 -6.8 +0.6 -3 9 +1 2 -11.4 -0.1 -4.7 -1.3 -10.5 -3.0 -7.5 -8.6 -3.6 -2.7 +2.5 -2 6 -7.6 -3.6 -1.1 -11.5 (Mil. dol.) 1,657 4,517 1,395 1,040 1,675 1 , 787 1,205 4,385 3,892 4,535 4,920 4,140 2,017 2,149 2,111 2,983 2,734 1,984 1,586 1,206 1,366 1,215 1,358 1,363 1,132 1,700 1,207 2,010 4,632 4,137 4,233 4,078 4,507 4,481 4,349 4,580 4,160 5,112 4,093 4,371 2,198 2,435 2,154 1,966 2,240 2,334 2,419 2,733 2,578 2,086 1,681 2,079 4,351 2 149 ? 689 1,094 1,273 +1.5 92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms 1,075 1 843 1 ?37 5 317 / 1 33 1,389 1,910 1,079 1,494 803 1,141 889 1,089 1,747 4,544 4,818 4,349 4,677 4,237 4,405 3,773 4,228 5,325 2,508 2,454 1,879 2,904 1,926 i ,UU!? nn^ 1 4,278 1,830 1,628 1,874 2,926 2,025 2,438 2,699 2,770 2,465 2,566 2,679 2,915 1 <SQ# 2,191 1,745 2,008 1,883 1965 Janusry February March April May June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May June 146.9 142.5 153.5 P138.9 P153.4 116.1 125.0 126.6 113.6 129 6 i pc n -11.1 -4.6 +10.4 +18.8 -11.2 -4.6 -3.4 -3.8 1A n 1 A PA i Q c 1 "33 A 1} Q --1-4. 7 pl62 5 p!44 2 p+23.6 D-9 2 -| Q O , Q J5 ... von 1 I^GI J-, 335 1 / / I 1 , 444 I ,4U2 /m 1 *o4 oc; / -L, OiJ I, Ti<iO 0 Q -10.3 -10.7 A 120 6 +3 6 ... 1*7/1 , /41 I» 1 & r+0.2 OQO /J2 1,733 1, 212 I, rtfjo 00^ 1,521 1 , 420 1,947 OQQ 2 ,^77 flttA 'l (MA) q ftqn J,ojy / in / 4,o24 4,593 4,630 4, 520 4,258 5,223 5,276 4,962 4,896 5 / /• fi ,669 5,100 5,179 5,879 1>> 6 j444 /tT » \ (NA) 2,712 2,596 2,357 3,466 (NA) NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 31 BASIC DATA JUNE 7966 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued 99. New orders, defense products 93. Free reserves* (Bil.dol.) (Mil. dol.) Year and month 85. Change in total U.S. money supply 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (Ann. rate, mil. dot.) (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 110. Total private borrowing 111. Corporate gross savings 112. Change in business loans (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1962 July 2 07 +//0 August September October November December 1963 January February March April May , ** June July August September October November December 1964 January February. . ^ March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. . * June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May June 1.94 +439 1 88 2 09 1 70 2 53 + "376 +268 +/ Q9 +/ Oft +/ Q9 ? 8Q 2 09 2 42 1 97 2. -40 + 375 4-/ +301 +/ Q9 +1 56 1.90 2.4.0 2.36 2.47 1.92 1.97 1.48 2 67 2.4.0 2.18 2 37 2.48 2.34 3.29 1 86 1 98 2 41 1 79 +419 W73 +269 + 31 3 +247 -0 84 -0 84 1 68 HA +91 +94 +33 +209 +4 +3 +3 +6 +2 +2 +5 +7 -0 +1 75 + 3 Q6 -i-89 +99 +1 56 +2 40 +138 +l6l +133 +167 +82 +120 +135 +83 +ftQ 08 ?/ 96 36 4.0 40 52 08 " 84 +3 1 9 0 00 +7 ftn +8 59 + 3 ft/1 4-ft /n +106 a. / 1.87 +168 H 2 37 , -] nA 4-9 9ft 2.44 -i-^A +J5O 9 9ft _u / ->o e:A +4. 2 46 3 24 2 46 Q/ rj C ~ f? ~i r\c -iio -i rtpi 2.58 2.62 -1 Qo 2 81 3 4-5 -1 Q » 3.28 2.57 2.53 3 4-0 3.04 r3.38 r3 29 r>2 76 -4-9 9ft rto -QJ -2 -44 -107 O / £. -246 r-268 p-355 K.fi. 4-6 nn ft 1 A _L-| q y44 ; -rij. 4_C --U4 -i 1 1 -144 1 /A CA I A 4-1 /" y +1. 44 4-1 1 76 4-Q /ft if) 170 4-1 9 ^A j rj Qpi 9 ftft 4-ft ^O 4-13 / / n i l 9ft +6 04 +4 08 +/ ^6 +? 66 /5 3/n /• i 7Qp ... 4-Q /8 +ft y n +10 80 4-ft 7A 4-ft 76 , 17 Op| / q ^cA / 3 j OO 936 4J / 3 i ny ... / o A6ft 1 .. . .nn 88 48 76 n/ 56 4-ft 1 A 4-5 ftft Q9 4-Q 79 4-ft 7A 4-Q 1 9 +V.l<i , Q / Q 4-ft ftft +7. 4o 4-ft ^Q j_ft n / 4-7/.V4 QO + nn O .00 i t Q An i Q / c / nO 4P>4<o 4-9 n/ 4-9 nft 4-; 66 r53 ft7A ( C on o 45, J12 i9 c . AA OO + . e 7ft QQA 4/ rj/ > «c^D 49,324 *•• ••* 49 1 872 ... i -1 Ay iifj en A7O ••• 50, 584 CQ /nft 49 , 884 63 91 6 P9,lo5 cc -i rtrt .. . A3 A / n • ** 54,660 •*• An QQA ou, ooO 55,440 70, 208 56,016 ,-i o Q^ _u7 ftn i-l Q T/l +12. J?O +7. 68 , -| C/ -j-7 cA + f . 9D i 1 / /: * +14.O4 -it T nsJ p-l.Oo T^ +<:. ^9 4-1 7y 4-9 4-1 Q7/ +1 .7 OO +7. f-c -L.1 n . Qn +1U oO j-l O ^4 Oy +1^. ftC, i Q yfi 51 040 i -i pi i / +±U .44 _uA QA +0.70 i Q r\pi +7. UU / 9 < o or4c /d 4J, *** +/ I / +c oA U 4-1 4-T c-i A c-i +7 08 4-Q +8 +6 +8 +11 +A 4-9 Oft 4-n Q^ -ui . y4.2 ^ +JL +7 6ft +6 24 + 3 85 . p fto 4-9 ft9 p72 , 436 p57,372 <7Q +1. 7? , -3 y rt +J.4o 4-1 J O +1 . 4< -j_"a 1*7 +J.17 Uo ^ .25 ,-3 rtQ +3.o9 _L/ QT +4.J1 +4.78 +4.28 +1.43 +0.32 +8.62 +12.35 +13.14 r+12.47 +6.32 +11.04 +11.38 +10.00 +5.53 +4.00 +5.33 +0.32 +10.84 +14.23 +7.21 +8.87 +6.60 P+10.93 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect seriesI( relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised* "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and NA", not available. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 32 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed TABLE BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Year and month 113. Net change in consumer installment debt 114- Treasury bill rate* 115. Treasury bond yields* (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 86. Exports excluding. military aid shipments, total 116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage yields* yields* yields* (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Mil. dol.) 1962 +4 49 July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May , * June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May , * June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May. June ••• 2 9Z +4.66 +3.00 +4.42 +5.80 + 5.82 2 84 2.79 2.75 2.80 2.86 +5.82 +5.94 + 5.72 +6.25 +5.29 +5.83 +6.91 +6 62 +5.09 +6 76 2.91 2.92 2 90 2.91 2 92 3 00 3.14 3 32 3.38 3 45 4 02 3 98 3 94 3 89 3 87 3.87 3 3 3 3 89 92 93 97 3 4 4 3 97 00 01 99 / /i / 3Q 3 P# 3 ?3 c. cc> *i ^7 3 11 5 56 5 56 28 27 23 28 3 07 4 22 3 10 / ?5 315 3 05 3 10 311 3 PI 4 4 L 4 4 26 / y /", A / 35 35 3? 3A 33 3 02 3 O/ 5 5/ 5 53 5 5P 5 /A 5 P .y 47f 5 /A 5 . y4Pc c. / c 1 7/Q • o ft l, */4V i 7m i i jVlU QI n .?jj 1 i 5/ y 7 1 700 7 T Sy q q 9S7 3 P 1 PP 1 1 QAQ .1 1 l,VD7 T q-i e c i SQA A 1 791 1 3 22 C. 1C i #yi i 313 e y e i 9n^ ^ 1 985 5 1 ocy o 4 04 4 40 3 ?n 5 3 PO y c 5 • 4P 3 5y c /5 +5 A 5 3 5? 4 07 y 11 +6 65 3 52 / "l/ / 3A y JP y /q + 6 &/ -i-A ay 3 53 3 53 / 1 5 / /Q 3 29 y T y y Jio QCJ 4. -1 <> y •3 -i ; ^ .14 3Qrt . <0 1- c 5 • 4!? 3 28 3 20 3 pn 5 /6 e y e an^A ^ 31^ 5 /A 2 11 8 A Q ,noo < UV? .ft o p pAi n c^ y 2 ,1lpo.4 ,rj 917 Q ce 4 4.20 4.45 4 49 4 16 4 48 A 1 3 4 13 / /Q / /3 A 1 / 4.16 / r3 4 49 4 16 4 12 4 14 +7 13 +5 65 +4.33 +7 42 3.48 3-4.8 3 48 3 48 3 51 3.53 3.58 3.62 3.86 +7 32 +7 16 +7.70 +8 94 +7 87 +7 14 +8.69 +7 87 +8 23 +7.44 +8.39 +7.61 3.83 3.93 3.94 3.93 3.90 3.81 3.83 3.84 3.91 4.03 4.08 4.36 4 14 4 16 4.15 4 15 4 14 4 14 4.15 4.19 4 25 4.28 4 34 4.43 +7 16 +6.46 +7 79 +6 37 (NAl 4.60 4.67 4.63 4.61 4.64 A A3 4.61 4 63 / 55 +5.62 +6 89 +5 62 +6 43 + 5 Q9 ye. / 57 "3Pl 3 97 . 4P 1 Q^c. rt -L j VPP .O c yc 2 1 n^ y c / c p mo A 2,057.8 2,075.2 2 061 0 ny 7 .^j) 2 ,U4/ P. 4P 5.45 ^ yc 3 1Q e 5 /6 L A9 3 23 3 ?^ y /I 4 47 3 18 6 /5 2PfiA P / /7 313 2 . 4P e y e 2 e y e y oA 1 / // 3 06 e y e 1 91 y A A // 3 09 e y e 1 £,Qft fl 4 49 4 48 4 52 3 18 e y e o 7ey 31^ 317 e y e / 57 A 71 3 3 3 3 2 T7Q A 2 oAn o on .<i o 2 , 04J)U QCC C 2 j *iPP . P 4 69 3/0 L 7*5 3 /^ 3 S/ 5 C*1 2 y rift 6 AP P 365 ft 4 92 3 S? e 70 5.07 3 64 3 72 3 ^A f Mfl \ 6 00 ? p 2 ? 3 AC; A O^ TO D 4 57 4 66 4 90 5 28 5 ?/ 5 37 P/ P7 ?/ 3*5 5 5 1C y y e yy y c 5 c y ^, P .4o c yQ /WA\ c> 2 - 3 QO Q ^^^. V y i1 2 , qo ^-c4. p ^y i A pyo 3?y 5Q/ 331 9 A ft y p CNA) NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; *'p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 33 BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Year and month 87. General im- 88. Merchandise 89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of conports, total struction conments (-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices trade balance tracts, value (series 86 minus series 87) b. Official a. Liquidity balance basis settlements basis (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (1957-59100) (Mil. dol.) (1957-59= 100) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bit. dol.) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing 1 (Bit. dol.) 1962 July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1964 January February. . , March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May June 1,346.6 1,345.9 1,471.4 1,314.6 1,424.9 1,376.5 +403.2 +357.5 +438.9 +230.1 +303.8 +466.8 1,099.9 1,510.4 1,4^4.7 1,414.4 1,416.2 1,430.9 1,449.6 1,497.4 1,442.9 1,454.5 1,465.2 1,477.8 -112,6 +611.7 +484.4 +501.1 +480.6 +360.2 +391.5 +407.9 +542.6 +499.7 +490.6 +627.6 1,418.1 1,458.8 1,518.0 1,537.2 1,530.1 1,514.0 1,573.2 1,608.1 1,563.4 1,550.5 1,697.7 1,641.9 +621.5 +599.0 +557.2 +523.8 +517.2 +562.5 +545.4 +491.7 +697.6 +605.9 +508.5 +784.2 1,192.7 1,599.6 1,861.0 1,832.9 1,789.0 1,829.5 1,663.1 1,763.6 1,806.8 2,005.9 1,903.3 2,034.6 +21.9 -0.8 +893.8 +546.7 +471 . 2 +400.7 +592.4 +569.3 +517.3 +335.7 +504.9 +321.2 1,935.5 1,992.9 2,072.7 2,138.2 +313.1 +341.9 +521.7 +193.0 (NA) (NA) -433 -935 -711 -1,057 r-1,218 -1,081 r-1,114 -871 r-200 0 r-138 r-248 r-552 r-617 r-1,381 r-697 r+226 r-534 r-350 r-563 -92 r-144 r-326 r-231 r-845 r-618 r+238 r+236 r-1,158 r-245 105.3 105.5 105.9 105.8 105.8 105.9 117 118 113 117 123 138 44.33 43.73 43.37 43.58 43.18 44.09 106.1 106.1 106.2 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 107.1 106.9 107.0 107.2 107.7 121 130 118 125 144 135 126 132 128 146 144 148 45.06 45.74 46.68 47.53 47.86 47.28 46.74 46.70 47.07 47.17 47.08 46.68 107.8 107.7 107.8 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.2 108.3 108.4 108.6 108.9 147 143 140 138 138 138 140 121 131 136 143 154 47.07 47.64 47.80 48.84 49.22 50.04 51.30 51.37 52.14 53.14 53.41 53.96 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.0 110.0 110.1 110.3 110.6 111.0 137 140 141 152 145 139 149 139 147 147 141 153 54.28 55.09 55.53 56.37 56.88 57.45 57.83 58.15 59.38 60.66 61.44 62.53 111.0 111.7 112.1 112.6 (NA) 152 157 158 161 (NA) 63.80 65.11 r66.76 r68.!8 p69.20 8.26 sisi 8^88 9.38 10.05 11.02 12!6s 13.23 14^54 14.97 15^66 17.06 18.17 r!9.48 p2o!32 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised' "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICB publication Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.) ' ~ ~ ~ ~~~ http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 34 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed BASIC DATA JUNE 1966 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued International Comparisons Year and month 47. United 123. Canada, States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production tion (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1957-59= 100) 121. OECD,1 European countries, index of industrial production (1957-59= 100) 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (1957-59= 100) 126. France, index of industrial production (1957-59= 100) 127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index of industrial of industrial production production (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) 1962 July August September October . . November December 1963 January February March April May , ' June July August September October November December 1964 January February March April May June Julv August September October November December 1965 January. February March April May... June July August September October November. December 1966 January February March April May June 120 118 119 119 119 120 119 120 120 121 122 123 120 121 122 122 123 119 119 120 119 124, 126 126 125 126 126 126 127 123 128 128 131 132 132 133 134 134 132 135 138 133 134 1 33 135 133 133 134 135 135 136 139 140 139 139 141 141 142 143 144 144 144 145 146 149 142 141 143 142 142 143 144 147 148 149 151 153 129' 150 152 353 rl~54 p!55 113 114 115 110 113 110 110 111 113 114 115 115 116 118 117 121 123 125 126 128 131 153 r!54 p!56 (NA) 120 121 121 123 12? "I?"} 124 123 123 122 123 123 127 128 129 130 129 1?8 r!28 129 128 r!30 129 r!28 r!30 r!30 . : r!31 - 131 130 p!31 (NA) 125 126 127 127 128 127 127 126 127 130 131 132 132 132 134 1 3S 136 136 139 "1 39 130 131 132 132 133 132 125 125 126 128 128 126 129 128 132 133 1 33 139 134 136 136 i ift 140 127 125 116 129 1 39 1/2 1 // 151 149 1 33 13A 129 1 29 136 1 37 136 138 1 SO 180 181 153 158 160 178 190 191 203 pnp 171 ?D7 140 1 39 1 3Q 01 / 170 21 7 172 169 219 1 7"3 *c<c4 226 140 150 143 147 145 145 149 149 149 140 1/1 132 132 141 142 142' 138 168 166 164 166 156 165 166 168 168 14C ~KA 1 -317 T tf 1 / C. 1 cc -iij?y qn 1/3 1/s 146 146 1/9 1c\/ 1 cc -| / r\ l-?7 1 TC 175 1 c. > 1/ O -l r?/: 146 148 1 c-i 1/9 I^A r!49 r!49 i sn 150 p!50 (NA) -| c.c. 1 ^/ 163 -] en 1 £Q IT'S pi 60 (NA) 141 1 Ad Io9 1 AA i AQ IbV 1 3Q 1 -DQ I fb -| ryrt 17o 14*- •\ r»/T r!7o 1 r-i-0 I/O -1-4-3 "1 / A i /A 148 T*~l / A 1 /Q X4V -i en -L2U _-i cr\ pi 50 184 184 173 139 141 139 138 137 140 143 143 143 1 // 144 1} 1 144 179 1 71 1 / C. 1 x>~\ 179 158 155 161 165 165 166 163 166 140 1 / c. 179 ~\ 7Q/y i _1 rt i -1 00 J.0^ r»T ^^ ooy no/ 228 233 232 232 239 241 237 2/,2 O / "3 243 237 242 240 234 243 241 238 243 240 243 O 1i <44 nr~£- 25° 1 ft/ —oqo plop t}c — oc/ p^?4 ^MA \ ^WA; ^WA^ ^JNAJ _.-> (NA^ NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; i(e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 35 Section TWO charts and tables DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS Average workweek—21 industries New orders—36 industries Capital appropriations—7 7 industries Profits—700 companies Sfocfc prices—80 industries Industrial materials prices—73 materials State unemployment claims—47 areas Nonagricultural employment—30 industries Production—24 industries Wholesale prices—23 industries Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores Nef sales—800 companies New orders—400 companies Car/oad/ngs—79 commodity groups Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries DIRECTIONS OF CHANCE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES 37 TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 OCCf DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date that high was reached Business cycle peak Current expansion Feb. 1966 Mar. 1966 Apr. 1966 May 1966 July 1953 Nov. 1948 July 1957 May 1960 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month 6 I 3 2 1 1 4 12 12 Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 6 6 24 50 24 50 4 "i i 4 6 6 **i 24 25 16 19 15 9 1 5 1 2 "4 2 5 1 3 24 16 2 1 2 3 24 0 24 0 'l 2 1 X 20 0 2 21 5 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date .... 1 1 9 3 8 3 2 6 11 82 11 73 11 55 l 10 11 91 Apr. 1953 Aug. 1948 Apr. 1957 1 1 1 3 4 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 1 4 2 3 2 i 11 0 11 27 11 27 11 36 6th month before business cycle peak 3d month before business cycle peak Number of months before benchmark date that high was reached 1 2 Jan. May 1948 Feb. 1960 Nov. 1959 Jan. 1957 1953 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 4 4 13 2 **2 2 months 1 ^0 5 1 2 2 5 1 2 1 '*4 Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 21 2 21 5 13 2 "i 2 1 2 3 9 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 2 3 7 **5 2 3 24 0 24 0 *20 15 2 21 33 18 "i 2 1 2 6 7 3 2 2 "i 2 1 24 0 24 4 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months . 2 2 1 "i 5 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 1 1 "i .... 1 2 6 . . 11 55 "5 4 3 3 2 **4 5 11 36 11 18 11 45 1 1 2 "i "i 1 4 2 1 3 5 1 3 6 "4 4 "i 11 45 11 55 11 36 11 27 3 NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leadin'g indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution. *4 series were not available. 2 1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks were disregarded in this distribution. 38 bed JUNE 1966 ANALYTICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES CHART FROM 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators Percent Dl.j Avg. workweek^ prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 Indus. iD6. New orders, dur. goods Indus.-36 indus. D11. Newly approved capital appropriationsL 17 indus., H U e B - | j - (~~3-QjSpon, !•—-1-Q span) D34; Profits, FNCB of NY, percent j-eporting higher profitsJ7QQ cos. (1 -Q .{span) Stock prices, 5QO common stoc'ks-80 indus. j 023.J Industrial materials prices-13 Indus, mils. 1 I Imtial clams, S t a e unernj)! insur.-47 areas ( --4 -HIP 39 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators Percent D4l. Employees iri nonagr. establishments+30 indus n 100 A D58, Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus. ^rrto. spani —— ]-mo. span —j bed CHART ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes Percent P35. Net sales, all mfrs,800 cos. | (4-p span)J -J. L_4—U UJO. wew order s, dur. goods mfrs.-400 -—WXTspan |>48. CaHoading^-19 mfrd. ( 4 0 span! j n, -H— H"i D48. Change in total carloadings r^ *.; "^^"'"TTI TP Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows: Series number and date of survey D35.D36 (Apr. 1966) D48 (Mar. 1966) OBI (May 1966) iilllllll] Actual IstQ 1965-lst Q 1966 2nd Q1964-2ndQ 1965 4th Q 1965- IstQ 1966 Anticipated 3 r d Q 1965-3rdQ 1966 2nd Q 1965-2nd Q 1966 2nd Q1966-3rdQ 1966 lAdiiJyyyyy iMijjLyjyyyiijyLn flSlfi^ H©^i 41 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES NBER Leading Indicators Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing (21 industries) D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (36 industries) Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations, NICB (17 industries) 1 Year and month 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-quarter span 3-quarter span 1962 July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December v. ...... 1964 January February . ... March April May. June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May. June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May. June 38.1 54.8 78.6 9.5 64.3 35.7 42.9 28.6 26.2 23.8 40.5 19-0 56.9 36.1 48.6 68.1 50.0 47.2 36.1 52.8 59.7 56.9 70.8 69.4 76.2 50.0 61.9 14.3 85.7 54.8 47.6 57.1 59.5 71.4 21.4 83.3 61.9 45.2 83.3 69.0 78.6 76.2 61.9 64.3 52.4 64.3 66.7 73.8 63.9 43.1 54.2 63.9 52.8 47.2 51.4 52.8 52.8 69.4 33.3 62.5 88.9 69.4 66.7 63.9 52.8 66.7 62.5 72.2 69.4 58.3 83.3 77.8 4.8 88.1 40.5 66.7 42.9 26.2 54.8 71.4 14.3 76.2 64.3 97.6 85.7 50.0 52.4 73.8 33.3 85.7 73.8 88.1 78.6 78.6' 95.2 59.5 55.6 44.4 58.3 61.1 44.4 50.0 63.9 40.3 54.2 58.3 55.6 6S.1 76.4 83.3 80.6 75.0 72.2 58.3 63.9 83.3 72.2 63.9 61.1 68.1 77.8 75.0 • 77.8 68.1 66.7 68.1 91.7 83.3 80.6 81.9 r86.1 r84.7 57.1 61.9 59.5 19.0 78.6 23.8 52.4 50.0 38.1 71.4 81.0 59.5 76.2 81.0 59.5 59.5 33.3 54.8 71.4 69.0 78.6 95.2 r90.5 85.7 48.6 38.9 63.9 50.0 44-4 58.3 59.7 41.7 61.1 61.1 55.6 76.4 47.6 71.4 21.4 r45.2 P54.8 P83.3 30.6 50.0 r84.7 43.1 P45.8 P72.2 76 53 *59 *74 47 53 *59 *53 *53 '65 *65 *76 53 76 *56 71 *53 44 32 59 76 65 71 '76 *53 r65 r59 p82 P 59 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tabte 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See MICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.) 42 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 TABLE LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Year and month D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (around 700 corporations) 1-quarter span D19- Index of stock prices, 500l common stocks (80 industries) 1-month span 9-month span D23. Index of industrial materials prices (13 industrial materials) 1-month span 9-month span D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas) 1-month span 9-month span 1962 July August September October November December 1963 January February March April. May June July August .......... September October November December 1964 January February March Apri 1 May , * June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May June 48 *56 50 59 '56 *55 57 '60 57 '% 55 *59 55 *60 57 69.4 78.1 36.2 8.1 98.7 84.4 1.2 .3.7 18.7 67.5 93.7 95.0 23.1 30.8 50.0 53.8 53.8 53.8 30.8 38.5 38.5 53.8 46.2 61.5 63.8 61.7 42.6 36.2 72.3 36.2 38.3 27.7 27.7 53.2 74.5 53.2 97.5 78.7 43.7 91.2 85.0 51.9 29.4 75.0 76.9 44.9 44.9 68.4 95.0 95.0 98.7 95.0 89.1 84.6 78.2 79.5 77.6 69.2 71.2 84.4 61.5 46.2 50.0 46.2 46.2 69.2 46.2 38.5 69.2 69.2 50.0 57.7 61.5 69.2 61.5 69.2 65.4 61.5 61.5 61.5 61.5 53.8 61.5 76.9 34.0 89.4 31.9 47.9 46.8 68.1 44.7 44.7 44.7 59.6 40.4 23.4 •44.7 66.0 72.3 48.9 63.8 80.9 46.8 31.9 85.1 60.6 53.2 73.4 74.7 65.2 78.5 75.6 52.6 35.3 89.7 41.0 76.3 73.1 59.6 24.0 83.1 78.2 86.5 85.9 84.6 84.6 81.8 68.8 65.6 75.3 76.6 76.6 53.8 53.8 46.2 65.4 30.8 53.8 46.2 76.9 69.2 73.1 61.5 38.5 61.5 69.2 69.2 76.9 76.9 80.8 84.6 76.9 69.2 69.2 76.9 69.2 89.4 27.7 57.4 77.7 48.9 48.9 63.8 51.1 53.2 34.0 31.9 83.0 73.4 72.3 70.2 74.5 89.4 60.6 61.7 89.4 61.7 70.2 74.5 72.3 92.2 81.8 64.3 70.8 66.9 0.0 24.7 79.9 81.2 66.9 70.1 57.1 80.5 58.4 51.9 58.4 72.7 67.5 61.0 59.1 63.6 60.4 67.5 70.1 53.8 30.8 69.2 76.9 53.8 57.7 46.2 42.3 50.0 15.4 34.6 61.5 69.2 76.9 61.5 ' 69.2 53.8 53.8 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 38.5 53.8 24.5 57.4 66.0 61.7 59.6 51.1 34.0 38.3 78.7 57.4 44.7 51.1 78.7 78.7 59.6 66.0 61.7 78.7 80.9 87.2 70.2 62.8 91.5 95.7 74.0 48.7 14.3 63.6 3.9 51.9 61.5 76.9 46.2 30.8 42.3 2 42J 53.8 53-. 8 38.3 44.7 83.0 53.2 45.7 91.5 2 NOTE; Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 1( The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter. ^Average for June 14, 15, and 16. on 79 43 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators Year and month D4L Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries) D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)1 1-month span 9-month span D58. Index of wholesale prices (23 manufacturing industries) 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span August September October November ........ December 61.7 51.7 51.7 50.0 48.3 43.3 51.7 45.0 41.7 ; 35.0 43.3 50.0 52,1 58.3 83.3 29.2 68.8 35.4 77.1 60.4 47.9 72.9 62.5 83.3 75.0 64.6 39.6 87.5 66.7 95.8 95.8 87.5 87.5 91.7 83.3 41.3 28.3 43.5 32.6 56.5 30.4 32.6 41.3 37.0 30.4 26.1 26.1 1963 January February March April May June July August September October November December 65.0 46.7 71.7 76.7 75.0 63.3 78.3 53.3 56.7 66.7 53.3 80,0 60.0 65.0 65.0 68.3 68.3 71.7 73.3 60.0 66.7 60.0 73.3 73.3 79.2 66.7 83.3 54.2 83.3 75.0 72.9 68.8 58.3 64.6 50.0 77.1 83.3 91.7 95.8 91.7 91.7 83.3 91.7 77.1 79.2 77.1 83.3 85.4 50.0 54.2 52.1 41.7 52.1 75.0 66.7 64.6 25.0 58.3 54.2 77.1 70.8 79.2 85.4 77.1 60.4 52.1 62.5 87.5 70.8 91.7 83.3 77.1 41.3 41.3 41.3 47.8 58.7 73.9 50.0 58.7 52.2 69.6 63.0 71.7 32.6 47.8 58.7 60.9 63.0 69.6 71.7 78.3 71.7 69.6 67.4 82.6 1964 January February March April May June July August September October November . . December 53.3 83.3 66.7 63.3 65.0 73-3 66.7 51.7 73.3 46.7 88.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 80.0 83.3 73.3 75.0 75.0 91.7 86.7 80.0 90.0 90.0 62.5 75.0 75.0 87.5 66.7 62.5 83.3 64.6 45.8 68.8 79.2 81.2 91.7 95.8 87.5 91.7 87.5 89.6 70.8 70.8 87.5 79.2 91.7 91.7 43.8 70.8 52.1 52.1 66.7 66.7 39.1 71.7 34.8 78.3 56.5 60.9 79.2 100,0 85,4 83.3 83.3 83.3 73.9 78.3 73.9 76.1 54.3 78.3 63.0 69.6 52.2 71.7 34.8 34.8 69.6 65.2 60.9 56.5 56.5 60.9 69.6 69.6 69.6 56.5 56.5 56.5 60.9 58.7 60.9 69.6 78.3 82.6 75.0 75.0 81.7 60.0 60.0 80.0 85.0 56.7 63.3 85.0 91.7 81.7 83.3 76.7 80.0 78.3 76.7 76.7 85.0 91.7 91.7 86.7 95.0 93.3 66.7 66,7 79.2 58.3 70.8 81.2 81.2 66.7 52.1 75.0 83.3 91.7 83.3 85.4 83.3 83.3 83.3 66.7 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 100.0 63.0 69.6 30.4 54.3 87.0 43.5 80.4 47.8 73.9 73.9 78.3 37.0 80.4 87.0 87.0 73.9 87.0 87.0 95.7 91.3 95.7 95.7 95.7 r91.3 63.0 60.9 67.4 67.4 60.9 60.9 60.9 54.3 52.2 52.2 69.6 73.9 76.1 80.4 82.6 76.1 67.4 69.6 60.9 60.9 71.7 73.9 87.0 89.1 78.3 78.3 r9l.7 r73.3 P71.7 r95.0 P91.7 70.8 r79.2 r83.3 r62.5 p62.5 95.8 P95.8 71.7 69.6 r60.9 r32.6 P39.1 P76.1 63.0 *0./ 71.7 r73.9 P67.4 r89.1 P95.7 1962 July 1965 January February March April May. June , July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May June 66.7 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 11 The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter. 44 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes D35- Net sales, manufactures (800 companies) D36- New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) D48- Freight carloadings (19 manufactured commodity groups) D61. New plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries) 4-quarter span 4-quarter span 4-quarter span 1-quarter span Year and month Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Change in total (000) Actual Anticipated 1962 July August September October November December 1963 January February March April May I y June 72 '74 71 '70 42.1 68^4 -67 74 *82 "•76 '76 63.2 63 .'2 +29 *76 *80 77 '76 73.7 78.*9 +39 74 'so *76 *76 57.9 68^4 +44 82 '84 *82 "so 78.9 78.9 r+4 'S4 85 *82 '84 68.4 73.7 r-53 *83 '87 *84 *84 84.2 68^4 +11 82 *86 'si *84 73.*7 94^7 +41 *83 *87 *84 '84 52*.6 89 .'5 r+47 '34 *88 '84 *85 52.*6 89."5 r+47 90 *88 90 *84 (NA) 84.*2 +23 '&& *88 *88 *84 84.'2 +22 88 90 *89 *87 73.7 +28 91 "96 89^5 +15 91 *89 July August September October November December 1964 January February 65.6 65.6 46.9 68^8 40.6 50.0 65^6 75.0 75.0 71.9 71.9 75.0 71.9 50.0 62." 5 50.'6 84.4 75.0 96 .*9 68.* 8 56.2 65.6 75.0 68*& 87!5 65!6 81 .'2 84.*4 81.2 62.5 March April May , * June July August September October November December 1965 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1966 January February March April May June 71." 9 1 71.Q NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. I 3d quarter 1966. ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS Basic Data 1966 1965 Diffusion index title and components Apr. May June July Aug. Jan. Feb. Mar! Apr. MayP Average weekly hours Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1 (21 industry components) All manufacturing industries Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products . Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products 41.0 41.1 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.5 41.6 41.5 41.5 41.4 41.2 40.9 41.4 41.3 43.7 41.7 41.7 41.0 41.6 41.9 42.1 42.1 41.8 39.9 41.4 41.6 42.1 42.0 42.7 40.5 41.3 41.7 42.4 41.8 42.1 40.7 41.3 41.8 42.1 41.7 42.4 41.5 41.7 42.7 41.9 42.6 42.3 41.1 42.4 42.0 42.6 41.9 41.1 42.0 42.7 41.9 42.5 r42.3 r41.2 r41.6 r42.0 r41.9 42.4 42.2 41.4 42.1 41.8 42.0 42.4 42.3 40.5 42.7 40.5 39.5 43.0 41.1 43.0 41.6 39.8 43.0 41.0 42.9 41.4 39.6 42.9 40.6 42.3 41.3 39.7 42.7 40.8 42.2 41.3 40.0 43.9 41.5 43.5 42.2 40.0 44.0 41.6 43.4 42.5 40.3 43.9 41.4 42.9 42.5 40.3 43.7 r41.4 r43.4 r42.2 r40.0 43.8 41.0 36.7 41.5 36.0 42.7 41.0 37.3 41.5 36.4 43.1 41.0 37.2 41.4 36.5 43.0 41.4 38.1 41.4 36.3 42.9 41.1 37.4 41.8 36.2 42.9 41.2 39.1 42.4 36.3 43.2 41.6 41.4 42.5 36.6 43.5 41.1 39.3 42.4 36.5 43.5 41.1 r39.0 r41.9 r36.5 43.7 40.9 38.1 42.2 36.6 43.8 38.5 42.2 42.4 41.1 38.3 38.5 42.0 42.2 41.7 38.4 38.5 41.7 41.9 41.8 37.8 38.6 41.6 42.1 41.8 37.9 38.6 41.8 42.7 41.9 37.9 38.5 42.0 42.0 42.4 38.2 38.7 42.2 42.8 42.3 38.9 38.7 42.1 42.5 42.2 38.5 r38.7 r42.2 42.6 r42.0 r39.1 38.8 42.0 42.1 42.2 38.9 41.7 a. 2 ^2.5 42.6 40.1 Millions of dollars D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1 {36 industry components) All durable goods industries 22,043 20,992 Primary metals 3,456 3,286 Blast furnaces, steel mills 1,876 1,632 Nonferrous metals Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals Fabricated metal products 2,098 2,027 Metal cans, barrels, and drums Hardware, structural metal and wire products . . Other fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical 3,107 3,108 Steam engines and turbines* \ 156 142 Internal combustion engines .* Farm machinery and equipment Construction, mining, and material handling*. . 601 581 Metalworking machinery * 222 208 Miscellaneous equipment * Machine shops Special industry machinery * General industrial machinery* 258 285 Office and store machines* Service industry machinery * NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency, preliminary, r^revised. •'•Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency. 46 21,310 22,195 21,509 23,578 23,741 24,888 r24,l64 p24,105 3,454 1,816 3,493 1,851 3,119 1,465 3,603 1,776 3,994 2,141 4,057 2,104 r3,883 p4,24Q (NA) p2,041 2,042 2,058 1,974 2,177 2,247 2,411 P2,195 3,189 3,140 3,318 3,427 3,317 3,529 P 3,567 (NA) 226 149 283 224 223 230 p334 (NA) 560 204 603 242 596 309 638 231 617 272 689 301 P6l8 p311 (NA) (NA) 230 248 250 260 246 254 P307 (NA) ^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. (NA) NA=Not available. bed TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 7966 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change 9-month spans 1-month spans 1965 1966 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components 5p CD* "o o ^ r o CD 4S n. TO , 5 - o o o z c p - 7 > L j 0_ S < c s 00 3 _!_ -3 Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING (21 industry components) Percent rising All manufacturing industries Durable goods industries: Ordnance and'accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated meta! products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Q_ QJ O > O S O —i U_ S 60 48 71 21 45 + + -*i- •^ <t co 0 50 38 71 81 + + O - - - 4 4- - O - - 4 O - - 4 4 + <_> CD - - 4 + O - + ^TO c * (3 <U - - O f c t g l l - f i f l J t - 1 O CD <C ^ 55 60 33 4- + - 4 - O 4 - + - - - - + - + + + - + + - - 4 - O O - - - - + + + O - - + + - + -- O + + O O + + O - 4- — + + — + O — — — 4 - — O 4 - 4 - O + 4 - - O - + 0 0 O — + + — + OO 4- — + O O 4- — + 4 4 - 0 _ 4 O — — + 4 + _ O 4- 4- o 42 61 61 56 — _ 3 TO "3 ^ 69 79 95 90 + + + 4 <f. 86 83 - + - O 4 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 4 - - + - + 4 - 4 - 4 O - + + - - 0 + + + 4 + - 4 4- - 4 + - 4 + - + 4- O - O + + + + 4- + 44- - + -- + - + + 0 + + + + + + + + + + + 4- + 4- — + + + + + + + + — + + + + - 0 + 4- + + + O— — + 0 4 - 4- . - - + + 71 4 - 4 - - - O - - 55 Q. TO + - + O C13 + O - m a —» u _ s < c s —* —\ - 0 - - - ^~ Q. . 4 - 4- + + 0 — + + + + + — + + + 4- 4. 4" O 4 - + 4- + -(- + 4- + 46 68 81 82 86 85 72 4. 4. - 4 + O 4 - + Q + + + 4- D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES (36 industry components) Percent rising All durable soods industries Primary metals: Blast furnaces steel mills Nonferrous metals Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 4 - - 4 - - 76 - - 4 31 - 4 4 - - 4 50 4 - - - 85 4 - 4 - 4 43 - - 4 4 - 67 68 92 83 _ _ „ _ _ + — + 4 + 44 + - 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 4, 4 - 4. _j_ • + + 4+ 4 , 4 . 4 , - 4 4 4 Fabricated metal products: — 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4- _|_ 4. — — + + + — + + + + Hardware structural metal and wire products Machinery, except electrical: Steam engines and turbines* Internal combustion engines * Farm machinery and equipment Construction, mining, and material handling •*. Metalworking machinery* . Miscellaneous equipment * Machine shops . Special industry machinery * General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery * _l_ _|_ + - 4. -|_ _j_ 4 - 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - - + - 4 - 4- - 4- — 4- — — 4- + — — — + - 4 - 4 - + 4 4 - - 4 - — 4 - - - O - 4 — + - 4 - 4 _ - - O 4 44 - - -f- 4 - + = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential, comprise series 24. 4 4 4 — 4 4 . 4 4 . - 4 4 4 _ 4 — 4 — 4 + + + + + + — + + + 4 * 4 " + 4 4 + 4 4 + — 4 4 4 + 4 4 + + + + 4- + + + + + 4 4 + + + + + — 4 + + + 4 . 4 4 4 , 4 , 4 , *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that 47 TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Basic Data—Continued 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components Apr. May June July Jan. Aug. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June1 Millions of dollars 06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES2- Continued Electrical machinery 2,801 2,929 Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* \ 602 603 Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment 701 659 Electronic components Other electrical machinery* 5,878 6,453 Transportation equipment Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle assembly operations Complete aircraft 2,874 668 3,099 3,000 3,462 3,332 r3,489 p3,625 (HA) 672 690 727 762 r705 P734 (NA) 691 752 655 828 724 r725 P896 (NA) 5,870 6,363 6,141 6,526 6,574 r6,873 r6,540 p6,489 122.9 123.5 121.5 118.3 118.3 .522 .073 35.262 1.791 .586 .076 37.719 1.847 .632 .078 36.019 1.808 .620 .082 31.479 1.770 .586 .075 30.384 1.678 .642 .075 31.414 1.597 .149 .159 .297 .207 1.724 .186 .206 11.581 11.663 .252 .254 .080 .074 .150 .161 *294 .207 1.726 .150 .170 .292 .205 1.762 .151 .169 .291 .215 1.787 .151 .163 .291 .217 1.811 .152 .161 .291 .210 1.794 .232 11.535 .259 .077 .236 11.420 .257 .073 .212 .207 11.341 11.103 .235 .239 .072 .071 .235 11.100 .234 .071 Instruments, total Lumber, total Furniture, total . . . . Stone clay and glass, total Other durable goods, total D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES3 (13 industrial materials components) Industrial materials price index Index: 1957-59 = 100 116.7 116.9 115.3 114.6 115.2 120.5 Dollars Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib.) Steel scrap (ton) Tin(lb.) Zinc(lb.) Burlap (yd.) Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average Print cloth (yd ), average Wool tops (Ib ) Hides (Ib ) Rosin (100 Ib.) Rubber (Ib ) Tallow (Ib ) D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2 (23 retail store components) All retail sales Grocery stores Other food stores Eating and drinking places Department stores Mail order houses (department store merchandise). Variety stores Other general merchandise stores Men's and boys' wear stores .413 .414 .075 .073 36.929 38.600 1.910 1.819 .152 .151 .147 .14-3 .30^ .303 .206 .204 1.651 1.642 .156 .158 11.652 11.629 .268 .272 .081 .079 .426 .076 36.055 1.894 .418 .075 35.677 1.867 .152 .146 .303 .207 1.643 .162 11.733 .265 .079 .150 .145 .304 .212 1.695 .164 11.919 .260 .080 .444 .074 31.469 1.911 .149 .148 .303 .211 1.712 Millions of dollars 22,849 4,986 23,317 23,322 23,668 5,053 5,076 23,585 5,078 25,023 5,278 25,263 5,021 5,359 r2%020 p24424 (NA) r5,391 p5,486 1,746 1,850 205 420 1,769 1,909 215 450 1,769 1,885 211 442 1,812 1,936 219 443 1,807 1,961 211 448 1,879 2,119 243 451 1,915 2,127 223 457 1,935 r2,119 220 r459 265 271 262 268 271 289 289 r277 25,536 p224 P453 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) p277 (NA) Pl,9l5 P2,109 NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. NA=Not available, p=preliminary, r=revised, 1 Average for June 14, 15, and 16. 2 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 3 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. 48 bed TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 1-month spans 1965 9-month spans 1966 1965 Diffusion index title and components 1966 iH f f o | l ^ J | | - | | I d l ^ i J - I ' l ^ Jf£ D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued Electrical machinery: Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment Electronic components Other electrical machinery* Transportation equipment: Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle assembly operations Complete aircraft Aircraft parts Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Other transportation equipment Instruments, total Lumber, total Furniture, total Stone, clay, and glass, total Other durable goods, total D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2 (13 industrial materials components) Percent rising 4 - 4 4- — 4- 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - — - 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - + O 4 - 4 - - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - - 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + - - 4 + - 4 4 - 4 - 50 - 4 4- + - 4 0 4- +• 4 4- - - - 4 - 4 - + - 4- - + + 4- 4- 4- + 0 - f . _ l _ ^ . ^ , ^ - - ^ _ ( - ^ ^ _ _ j _ - 4 - 4 - 4- 42 + + + 4 - 4 - 15 4- -f 35 62 62 77 46 31 42 42 69 54 54 46 46 46 46 38 54 54 54 Industrial matpriaK nrirp inripv Copper scrap (Ib ) Lead scrap (Ib ) Steel scrap (ton) 4+ 4+ 4 - 4 4Tin(lb.) 4Zincflb.) 4 - 4 44 - 4 Burlap (yd ) Cotton (Ib ) 15-market average O O — 0 — — 4— 4 - 4 Print cloth (yd ) average Wool tops(lb) Hides (Ib) Rosin (100 Ib ) Rubber (Ib) Tallow (Ib) D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES (23 retail store components) Percent rising 48 74 74 78 37 72 70 61 33 39 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - All retail sales O 4+ 44 - 4 - 4 — Grocery stores .... Other food stores Eating and drinking places + + + + + + 44 - 4 44 - 4 Department stores + + _ + _ _ + _ Mail order houses (department store merchandise). . Variety stores Other general merchandise stores 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - O 4 - 4 - 4 — + 44— 4* — 4O O Men's and boys' wear stores 4- 4~ — — — _ _ 4 — - + 4 + 4 - 7/ - 4 + 4 - + - - H 4 - 4 - + 4 4 + = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential, comprise series 24. - - 4 4 - - . - _ - _ 4 . - _ 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 - + 4- Q1 0 - + QA 4 - + #7 - _ - 87 4 - ^ - - j _ - | _ _ | _ - | _ — 4 4 - - 4 4 QA - - 4 - 4 4 QA - - 4 4 4 - QA Q1 7A - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that ^•Average for June 14, 15, and 16. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded. 2 49 TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Basic Data—Continued 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components Apr. May June July Aug. Jan. Feb. Marl Apr.P May Millions of dollars D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued Women's apparel, accessory stores Family and other apparel stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores Household appliance TV radio stores Lumberyards building materials dealers Hardware stores Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire battery accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liquor stores Jewelry stores Other durable-goods stores Other nondurable-goods stores 485 502 501 510 500 570 594 569 584 (NA) 203 675 337 724 218 220 682 332 776 228 212 699 334 783 228 211 722 334 782 234 208 706 353 768 234 240 759 378 896 253 240 730 405 862 252 232 765 405 895 255 223 750 385 798 236 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4,218 254 1,792 762 516 4,295 260 1,811 755 530 4,359 247 1,824 760 525 4,491 252 1,831 775 527 4,402 258 1,820 779 513 4,610 274 1,907 806 560 4,718 277 1,907 806 561 4,822 299 1,907 816 559 4,362 276 1,946 838 558 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) } ;;; 1965 July Aug. 1966 Oct. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Mar/ Apr/ May p Thousands of employees D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1 (30 industry components) All nonagricultural establishments Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Transportation equipment . . Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade 60,501 60,621 60,756 61,001 61,472 62,148 62,501 62,918 62,933 102 528 357 495 1,077 983 1,208 1,149 1,238 250 334 104 530 354 495 1,079 977 1,208 1,152 1,280 248 342 105 527 357 500 1,068 983 1,218 1,163 1,267 251 342 107 530 358 500 1,046 987 1,224 1,182 1,263 252 349 108 538 362 503 1,031 1,006 1,242 1,199 1,282 254 353 113 556 370 520 1,045 1,024 1,252 1,244 1,297 261 345 118 553 373 516 1,050 1,036 1,262 1,269 1,330 265 350 121 558 375 518 1,055 1,040 1,264 1,278 1,348 267 353 123 550 374 517 1,061 1,041 1,271 1,305 1,349 268 354 63,099 126 544 380 509 1,065 1,039 1,281 1,316 1,350 271 355 1,141 75 822 1,196 500 622 548 111 361 308 1,135 68 823 1,195 497 622 •548 110 363 310 1,129 68 825 1,205 499 • 621 546 111 362 310 1,144 70 828 1,212 500 625 544 110 365 311 1,174 69 834 1,216 503 630 547 110 372 314 1,155 71 840 1,203 510 637 551 110 380 317 1,161 70 842 1,229 512 639 554 110 379 319 1,161 72 844 1,229 513 640 556 109 383 319 1,150 72 846 1,238 515 644 556 110 388 323 1,143 71 847 1,252 516 644 560 110 388 323 633 3,154 4,031 3,281 9,338 627 3,189 4,049 3,273 9,327 617 3,186 4,067 3,281 9,360 622 3,202 4,071 3,288 9,396 627 3,267 4,079 3,300 9,454 632 3,383 4,090 3,323 9,586 631 3,374 4,104 3,336 9,606 632 3,462 4,107 3,349 9,666 592 3,375 4,114 3,357 9,635 625 3,317 4,125 3,361 9,650 NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 1 50 NA=Not available, preliminary, revised. bed TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 1-month spans 9-month spans 1965 1966 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components CL .«— CD 0 Ofl =* ^ o? *H J? —» > O 0 £- *t %> ^ Z t> J O exj E= S -0 OJ TO -p Q u_ ju £ O —i TO >^ J 2 iE t j\ «> g- < <? ^ O > 0 ^ Q j|- 1 1 iJ t I 1 2E 3 •^ 1 _5 ^t D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued Women's apparel, accessory stores Family and other apparel stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores Household appliance TV radio stores Lumber yards, building materials dealers Hardware stores . Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire battery accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liouor stores Jewelry stores Other durable-goods stores Other nondurable-goods stores + + + - + + 4- 4- 4- - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - + + - + - 4- - 4- 0 + 0 + 4- + ; : : :: + + - - + + + + + + 0 - 44- 4- - 4- * + _ 4- _ 4- + + -- 4 4- 4- + 4- + 4- + + - 0 0 - 00 + °- 3 - =3 D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS (30 industry components) —i O 4- 4- 4- + -- + + 4- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 0 4- 4- + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4 + 57 4 - 4 - + - - + 4 + 4- + + + + 4 + + + 4- 4 4 - 4 - - + + + 4 + + + 4 + +. + 4 4 - 4- 4- + 4- c X 9 -p u. co TO £ j= " 0 OJ ^ CD C3 78 92 4 o o CD co 85 - 4 <3£ O S 92 - 4 O 82 - + + 4 78 - -° ro 4 - - ?• + L 44- 4 - 4 - 4 - + + + - 4- + + + + 4- 0 4- 0 4- 4- + 0 - 4 4- 4 + 4 - 4- 4 - + - - 4 - 4- 4 - 4 + 4 4- + 4 - 73 + + - u_ 4 + - <C 77 - 4 + 4 4- TO 72 + - c^ CD 4 - 4 - 4 - - 1966 &Cp o |08 ^ <C Q. - + + 2 t E —i 4 4- 1965 > + s 77 - - 4 Q- <c s 85 92 - 4 - - ^ TO 4 - - -^ 95 4- + + + + + + + 4- 4- + 4- +. 4- 4- 4- + + + 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4* 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- 4 4- 4 - 4 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 + + + + + 4- + + + + +- + + + - + + + + + + + + + - - + + + + + + + + 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4- 4 - - + + - - + O O + - + - - 4- - 4 - 4 - 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 0 + + - 4 - 4 - 4 - + - 4- 4- 4- f 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - + O - 4- 4- - 4- 4- 4- O + - 4 + 4 + 4- - - - 4- + 0 4- - 4 4- 4- + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + O - O 0 + + + + + + - - 4- 4- 4- 4- 4 - + + + + + 4- - O O O O - 4- O 0 + 0 + 0 - 4- 4- 4- 4- 4O 44- O O 4+ - 4- O + 4- O + 4- - 4- 4- 4- 4- - - 0 4 4- + + 0 + + 4 - 4 - 4 - + + + + 4- 4- 4- 1- 4- - + - 4- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 0 + + + 4- + + - - 4- + + + 4 + + + - + + + 4- + + 4- + 4 + + 4- 4- - + + 4- + 4 + + - + 92 + - - 4 - 4 + + + O Z + 4- - *J C3 93 4- - 5" co + 0 4 = <C 95 + - 1 + - - 4 s ! JM on A * "E -^ 92 87 4 4- 4- - 4 4- 1966 z 63 - (Dining = rising; o = unchanged; 4 6-month spans -*-" <C 0 Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retai 1 trade • * . • + - 4- o? o CD 5 Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products + + 1965 Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products + O + 1-month spans Percent rising All nonagri cultural establishments Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery 4- + - + + f + + + + O + - + + - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential. 51 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Basic Data—Continued 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Mayp Thousands of employees D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTSi-Con. Finance insurance, real estate Service and miscellaneous , Federal government State and local government 3,049 8,929 2,376 7,678 3,053 8,'946 2,379 7,706 3,061 8,967 2,379 7,740 3,069 9,019 2,386 7,785 D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1 (24 industry components) All industrial production Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products ....*. Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay glass and lumber Clay glass and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures. Miscellaneous Nondurable goods: Textiles apparel and leather Textile mill products Apparel products Leather and products Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals petroleum and rubber* Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Foods beverages and tobacco Foods and beverages Tobacco products Minerals: Q03| Metal stone and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals 3,080 9,142 2,425 7,965 3,074 9,081 2,400 7,869 3,082 9,205 2,451 8,021 r3,100 r9,251 2,477 r8,Q94 r3,102 r9,262 r2,501 r8,135 3,102 9,281 2,528 8,192 Index: 1957-59 = 100 144.2 144.5 H3.5 145.1 146.4 150.2 rl51.9 r!53.3 r!53.6 154.8 148.7 148.0 146.5 147.5 131.2 147.0 123.7 150.9 119 .'4 153.6 130.8 157.0 r!33.6 rl60.7 rl41.4 r!60.7 r!43.*0 rl60.9 148 162 161 '.7 159.2 149.8 152.1 162.4 160.1 151.5 152.6 162.4 162.1 H9.4 155.7 165^8 166.2 155.0 158.0 166^9 168.4 157.3 159.0 171.9 177.6 163.1 166.0 174.4 179.8 163.2 rl69.4 r!74.0 r!79.2 rl65.8 r!71.9 r!74.8 r!82 . 4 rl66.2 r!74.8 132.6 115.4 133.5 117.2 133.8 116.2 134 '.4 118.3 135." 5 119.1 139.4 125.6 r!41.*4 126.5 r!43.2 r!26.6 r!43.*6 p!29.4 176 184 164 177 136 142 (NA) 155*.8 1-43.5 156^3 146.6 156!s 147.1 159^7 150.4 162^6 153.0 165.' 4 151.2 166^8 155.3 rl68.8 r!56.8 rl69.*6 r!56.4 172 158 133.' 8 U3.8 107.7 134 ".8 HI. 9 107.0 135.7 U3.8 108.2 137.' 7 145.7 109.3 139 '.4 147.2 110.1 140.1 146.9 111.7 r!4o'.7 r!48.3 110.1 r!40.7 PH9.1 pllO.5 141.2 pl41.6 (NA) (NA) 142.1 131.3 141 '.1 133.0 143 .*9 129.3 143.6 131.1 147! 4 133.2 148.4 135.7 r!48.5 138.2 rl53^2 r!39.0 172.8 124.5 170.2 174.2 125.8 168.1 176.' 6 125.1 171.2 177.1 124.0 175.5 178.5 126.1 181.6 181.9 130.5 184.6 r!84.3 125.5 183.3 rl85.8 rl26.1 p!82.0 123 .'l 119.9 122.4 120.7 123.2 120.6 123.6 114.5 125.6 118.9 126.0 119.6 r!27.0 rl26.7 r!27.7 p!26.8 P150.0 r!38.4 r!76.3 pi 87.1 p!27.4 (NA) r!27.5 p!27.5 (NA) 141 (NA) (NA) (NA) 145 (NA) 139 177 (NA) (NA) (NA) 128 (NA) (NA) 117.1 113.0 115.2 114.2 106.7 110.6 116.8 114.0 115.7 113.8 114.4 113.4 111.2 115.0 117.7 rll6.4 85.3 116.7 126.4 127.3 130.2 129.1 122.4 127.4 116.5 125.5 114.2 133.2 133." 4 135.5 130.8 135.6 r!34.5 r!37.1 pl34*.2 p!30.6 (NA) (NA) 103.0 103.3 103.2 103.4 103.7 104.2 104.9 105.2 105.2 105.6 99.5 97.8 101.9 101.6 101.0 97.7 101.7 101.3 101.6 97.7 101.7 101.4 101.8 97.9 101.6 101.1 102.5 98.0 101.5 101.3 103.9 98.3 102.1 101.8 104.3 98.5 102.1 102.2 105.7 98.4 102.1 102.4 108.2 r98.6 r!02.2 102.1 109.2 98.9 102.4 101.9 ' 117 119 128 D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING 2 (23 manufacturing industries) All manufacturing industries Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel • NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. NA=Not available, preliminary, ^revised. -"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. 52 bed TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 6-month spans 1-month spans 1965 1966 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components j f s - g | | | <p 1 I- I - ^ < e / j D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con. Finance insurance real estate Service and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (24 industry components) Percent rising1 All industrial production Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay, glass, and lumber Clay, glass, and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous Nondurable goods: Textiles, apparel, and leather Textile mill products Apparel products Leather and products Paper and printing paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products. Rubber and plastics products Foods beverages, and tobacco Foods and beverages Tobacco products Minerals: Coa! Crude oil and natural gas Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING (23 manufacturing industries) Percent rising All manufacturing industries Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel + + + O Z : Q - ^ U . S < C + O + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + f fI ! i i ! ! I + + + + + + + + + + 88 100 96 96 + 67 52 75 83 92 71 79 83 62 62 83 67 88 88 88 88 - - - - + + + + + + + - - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + O + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - 4 - - + + + 4 + - - + 4 - 4 + + + + + + + + + - 4 - 4 - 4 - W A _ L _ j _ 4 . _ i _ . _ i _ . , 1 t t A * + + + + + ++ + + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + — + + + + + + + + + + + - 4 . 4 , 4 . 4 , 4 . 4 , 4 . 4 . i^ 4. -+ + + ++ NA + + + + - NA NA - 4- - * + - + -+ + + -- + - - + + + + + + -- + + + + + - N A + - NA — — + + OO - + - + + + + 4 - 4 63 + O . 74 . Q 80 4 + - NA — + + — 4 70 + + + -NA + N A N A 52 + 72 . . + -+ + + 54 Q 52 + - 4- o + N A + N A N A + N A N A _ . + + - + + • + . . . +' + + . . . + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + * + + + + + NA + NA NA + NA NA + + + NA + + 4, 4. 4. 4. 4. - + + + + + + + + + - + - + + + N A N A + + + + NA + NA NA + — ' — + + + + NA + - 4 - - 4 - 4 _ + 4 - - » - 4 - 4 - TJA -- J - 4 _ TJA + 74 4 . . . 67 4 67 70 61 61 72 74 87 89 89 + + + 4- + 96 . + - + 0-0 + =rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. NA Not available. ^The percent rising is "based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded. 53 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Basic Data—Continued 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr! MayP Index: 1957-59 = 100 D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURINQi-Continued Durable goods-Continued Nonferrous metals Fabricated structural metal products Nondurable goods: Processed foods Tobacco products and bottled beverages Cotton products Wool products Manmade fiber textile products Apparel Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products refined Rubber and rubber products Hides, skins, leather, and leather products * 115.8 101.4 109.3 104.7 105.2 97.3 100.5 113.3 116.6 101.7 110.2 105.7 105.2 96.7 100.7 112.2 117.2 101.7 110.0 105.9 104.8 96.6 100.7 110.8 116.8 101.7 109.7 106.0 104.8 96.5 100.3 110.5 117.8 101.9 109.9 106.3 105.3 96.4 100.5 112.9 118.4 102.2 109.9 106.6 105.5 97.1 100.5 112.5 119.9 102.7 110.1 106.8 105.6 97.8 100.4 115.1 121.0 103.4 110.6 107.3 105.7 98.3 100.3 113.0 122.5 103.5 110.7 108.6 105.7 98.5 100.3 113.0 122.5 103.5 111.0 109.2 105.9 98.4 101.1 117.3 106.3 107.2 100.9 104.7 95.6 103.6 107.0 107.1 100.8 105.1 94.8 103.9 100.2 97.5 95.5 93.5 108.4 100.3 97.3 97.4 93.4 112.0 106.1 107.4 100.9 105.5 94.4 103.9 100.3 97.4 96.7 93.5 111.2 106.1 107.4 101.0 105.9 93.3 104.1 100.5 97.6 96.8 93.1 112.6 107.1 107.6 100.9 105.4 92.6 104.1 100.8 97.5 98.0 93.1 113.3 109.5 108.3 100.7 105.6 91.4 104.7 101.1 97.5 97.0 93.4 116.6 111.9 108.3 101.1 105.6 91.1 104.9 101.1 97.5 97.9 94.0 118.8 112.1 109.6 101.5 105.8 90.7 105.0 101.6 97.4 97.5 94.1 119.3 111.8 109.6 102.2 106.2 90.5 105.0 102.2 97.4 98.6 95.4 121.2 111.8 109.5 102.8 106.5 89.7 105.0 102.6 97.6 98.3 95.4 122.6 p=preljminary, r=revised. *Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. 54 (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau. bed TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 7966 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 6-montfi spans 1-month spans 1965 1966 1965 19 66 Diffusion index title and components Q Q C S . - * - . 3 CU O > O f <£ E = - Q • - » - . CO C U ™ 0 . >. 0 3 < ; c o o z Q —* L J u . * = < C S _!_ oo A .*!* > o <= jo JL u_ s z a a f o o e u m * 1 3 ™ 0 - ^ < t c o 0 2 0 - ^ U _ S < : 058. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued Durable goods-Continued Nonferrous metals Fabricated structural metal products Fabricated nonstructural metal products General purpose machinery and equipment Miscellaneous machinery Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles Miscellaneous products Nondurable goods: Processed foods Tobacco products and bottled beverages Cotton products Manmade fiber textile products Apparel Pulp paper and allied products • • • ••- O 4. 4. 4. 4 - 4 - 4 O + + + + + — + — o 0 O + 4- + 4- + O + — + O + 4- + 4- — 4 - 4 - 4- O — 4 4— — 4- 0 O + + 4- O — — 4 - 44O 4 - O 44 4 - 4- 4- — O — 0 4- O + 0 + + + + O O + O + + + + O + + + ™ + + — + — O — O + — + — O + O + c « ;6 s <: J8 + cL <2 +• + + 11 -^ <c s o 1 _i_ ^_ + + + + + — — o + + + •*• 4" +* + + + + — o — 0 — — 0 4* 1" + + *- + + + + 0 — + + g S z 9 £15-1-1 4- 4- - % & -G 2 o? o + + + + + + + + + + + + + O ^ h + H irlp^ ^IfinQ Ip^thpr f\ni\ Ip^thpf nrnHnrtc 9-montti spans 1-month spans 1965 " ^ r J n T O O C U m C U C D O - —i < C o o O 2 : O - S U - S < t Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) Texti le products paper 80 81 67 70 57 + 0 0 + + + + + + + + + + + + 74. 14 4.9 — 4 64 — 19(% 1965 f• atao S l i> l (jS j_ i _Q- S t A> ,4!, ii_ j_ D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS1 (23 industry components)^ Percent rising3.,. Index of 500 stock prices Coal, bituminous euj 3 <C Q_ cu co o o > J2 2= 0 o> Cp = •^ "S •? I I 1£ 1 < S 58 73 68 61 59 64 s =I -s? 60 6^3 + 4 51 » eao 1 5 7n *ip — + + Chemicals Drugs Oil composite Building materials composite Steel Metal fabricating Machinery composite Office and business equipment Electric household appliances Electronics Automobiles Radio and television broadcasters + + + -- - + + + + + + + _i_ 4. _i + + + + + + 4 + + + + + + + + + + + . + + .... ... - + + 0 Electric companies Natural gas distributors Retai 1 stores composite Life insurance 1966 + _ + + _ - _ - - _ _ 4 + - ' - + + + + + 4- - — - _ + + + ~ — — + 4- - + + + _ _ - + = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. are not seasonally adjusted. 2 The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4. 3 Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter. 55 TABLE ANALYTICAL MEASURES JUNE 1966 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued Directions of Change—Continued 9-month spans 1-month spans 1965 1966 1965 1966 Diffusion index title and components Q jfjj D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1 (26 area components) Percent rising 47 labor market areas Northeast region: Boston (7) Buffalo (19) Newark (11) New York (1) Paterson (20) Philadelphia (4) Pittsburgh (9) Providence (25) North Central region: Chicago (2) Cincinnati (21) ....... . Cleveland (10) Columbus (26) •• • •* Detroit (5) Indianapolis (23) Kansas City (18) Milwaukee (15) Minneapolis (13) St. Louis (8) South region: Atlanta (17) Baltimore (12) Dallas (16) Houston (14) West region: Los Angeles (3) Portland (24) San Francisco (6) Seattle (22) f l QJ c x ^ > " o o *** c ro .0 Oi sJS *_ ^- >* jg 2 ? a •=j •^ =3 <t §" <xa "o O o Z to 0 <5 —i CD ti_ ro S a. < 38 79 57 45 51 38 45 83 53 4.6 66 - + + - + + + + + + + + + + + — + — + + o + — + + + - + + + + + + + + + + _ + + + 4_ + + + + + _ + + _ + + - - + - + + -- + - + + - + + 444 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- + 92 + + + _ 4- 87 70 63 92 96 - + + + _ 4 - 4 - 81 + + + + 62 79 = 3 J 2 —» < C + + + 4+ _ 4 2T + + + + - w -+ + + + - 4 - + _ + + + S + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + 4 - 4 - 4 + + + - c -+ + + + + + + _ _ + + + + + 4 ° + + + + + _ - + - S + + + + + _ + _ 4- 4 ~ + + + + _ + + + + - - °.S (5 .*> tv £• ™ § 2 t Q —» L i _ 3 S ^ S —» - 44 - f ^ o | ^ ^ £ f | - | + + + + + + + + - + _ + + + + 4 - 4 4- 4- + + + + + 4 - 4 - 4 - - = rising; o = unchanged;+ = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. 1 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. (Sec "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor market area. 56 Section THREE charts and tables REFERENCE CYCLES Current expansion compared with expansions in earlier business cycles PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER EXPANSIONS Percent of reference peak levels Percent change from reference trough levels 57 CHART JUNE CYCLICAL COMPARISONS 1966 bed COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES Percent PERIOD COVERED Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) -Reference trough dates -— July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) —— May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) immimm Percent -Reference trough dates 23. Industrial 130 materials prices 17. Ratio, price to unit tabor cost, mfg. 120 110 110 100*2 105 •32 so 100* 80 70 95 24. New orders, math. and equip. Indus. 19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks 200 190 180 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 170 160 150 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100* 100 90 90 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60 Months from reference troughs 80 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 Months from reference troughs Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes tor this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6, Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. Reference peak level, * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. QPoint at which a new reference trough was reached. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 58 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis § bed CHART JUNE 1966 CYCLICAL COMPARISONS COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued r rrTTT l PERIOD COVERED • Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) r r 'i T" i mi 'i r IM i r 11 — Reference trough dates July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) " • May 1960 to present (Reference trough: -I 0 Feb. 1961) 1 43. Unemployment rate, total (percent unemployed, inverted) -Reference trough dates 2 3 4 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments 5 6 7 8 Percent 55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods 115 110 100* 95 -1 85 -12-6 0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +-36 +42 +48 +-54 +60 Months from reference troughs -12-6 0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 Months from reference troughs Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lincs represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels. *Reference peak level, if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. O Point at which a new reference trough was reached. 59 i CHART CYCLICAL COMPARISONS JUNE 1966 bed COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued Percent PERIOD COVERED 4th 0. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough: 4th 0. 1949) 3rd Q. 1954) 3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958) • 2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st 0. 1961) Percent 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 Months from reference troughs -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 Months from reference troughs Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quartets of previous expansions are shown in table 6. in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. O Latest data anticipated. *Reference peak level. if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. O Point at which a'new reference trough was reached. 60 Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle bed CYCLICAL COMPARISONS JUNE 7966 CHART COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued PERIOD COVERED : Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) * July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) - July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) i May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Reference trough dates 95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1 Feb. 1961) +20 Percent +15 -i 115 +10 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. +5 -5 -10 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1 +8 64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories +6 +4 +2 0 -2 -> 90 -12-6 0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 Months from reference troughs -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 Months from reference troughs Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. ] Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels. »'Reference peak level. -^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. O Point at which a new reference trough was reached. 61 fi TABLE CYCLICAL COMPARISONS JUNE 1966 0CC7 COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES Selected series Month after reference troughl Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in- Mar. 1933 Nov. 1927 Oct. 1949 June 1938 98.3 78.1 49.4 120.0 101.5 90.2 101.9 167.5 113.6 178.0 338.9 305.7 64.7 39.3 38.1 48.3 72.5' 36.1 38.1 21.5 132.7 99.6 146.3 60.7 61.8 181.7 110. 8 97.9 134-0 133.1 33.7 137.1 181.4 62.8 144.6 157.3 72.6 71.5 51.5 (NA) 60th 63d 63d 63d 63d 63d 173.7 106.0 157.2 113.6 168.0 104.1 125.4 101.0 142.4 90.8 131.3 132.4 128.0 98.6 235.6 110.0 141.0 100.2 101.4 96.9 232.8 83.8 148.6 158.5 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . . 43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. . 47 Industrial production 49 GNP in current dollars (Q) 63d 63d 63d 60th 116.0 +1.2 140.9 141.5 106.9 -1.5 122.9 130.7 106.2 -3.3 110.1 131.7 50 GNP in 1958 do! lars (Q) 51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y. 52 Personal income 54 Sales of retail stores 55. Wholesale prices except farm products and (pods 60th 63d 63d 63d 129.4 171,7 140.8 132.6 119.7 154.2 131.3 122.4 63d 103.6 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q): a Actual b Antic ipated^ 60th 69th 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . . 64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories 66 Consumer installment debt 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . . Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 63d 62d 62d 63d 103.8 127.0 236.7 15.8.2 101.3 103.6 103.7 131.5 7. Private nonfarm housing starts 9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and industrial floor space 13. New business incorporations 14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted) 63d 102.0 62d 62d 63d L6. Corporate profits after taxes (Q) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . . 19 Stock prices 500 common stocks ........... 23. Industrial materials prices 24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries 29. New building permits private housing Aug. 1954 July 1924 July 1921 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, 98.8 35.8 31.8 108.5 (NA) 38.7 14.0 165.7 11.6 78.4 204.1 26.1 57.2 (NA) 12.3 93.5 58.1 122.3 104.6 119.0 49.9 79.0 20.9 223.3 (NA) 73.8 112.8 (NA) (NA) 17.6 (NA) 33.9 66.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 48.0 38.9 (NA) (NA) 130.8 (NA) 322.8 80.4 (NA) (NA) 106.0 (NA) 147.5 56.4 (NA) (NA) 109.5 -1.2 132.9 141.5 132.5 (NA) 200.5 205.8 85.9 -20.0 72.6 77.3 63.7 (NA) 59.5 57.7 101.0 (NA) 121.6 127.4 87.6 (NA) 120.1 (NA) 114.1 149.8 134.2 125.7 126.5 151.0 138.7 131.0 (NA) 207.6 202.5 142.8 92.4 58.1 77.2 79.0 79.6 52.6 57.2 59.5 129.0 154.4 124.8 110.7 (NA) 109.1 (NA) 11*9.4 101.3 111.5 109.3 112.8 89.3 66.8 85.1 64.0 159.8 175.1 100.8 112.7 118.7 129.2 117.6 133.2 (NA) (NA) 57.5 50.6 21.6 38.8 122.7 89.9 66.0 61.4 63d 62d 62d 60th 98.6 129.5 171.3 103.7 100.5 112.2 152.8 103.7 113.1 116.0 173.8 141.3 112.1 145.5 273.1 134.5 143.4 155.7 54.9 (NA) 91.7 101.1 119.4 52.4 68.2 (NA) (NA) 96.4 84.5 73.3 (NA) (NA) 111.0 (NA) (NA) 82.0 60th 61st -5.4 +6.92 -0.8 +5.28 +5.2 -2.36 -5.2 +5.34 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS NBER LAGGING INDICATORS OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 95. Surplusordeficit, Fed. incomeand prod. acct.(Q) 3 98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3j5 NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendixA for the reference peak dates. NA«Not available. on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CICLE DEVELOPMENTS. Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3 ing average of the seasonally adjusted series. Measures are differences from the reference peak levels. ^Anticipated expenditures (4th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are 5 used for all other entries. Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. 62 bed JUNE 1966 CYCLICAL COMPARISONS ™£ COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES Selected series Month after reference trough * Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in- Feb, 1961 Apr. 1958 Aug. 1954 Oct. 1949 June 1938 Mar. 1933 Nov. 1927 July 1924 July 1921 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, 63d 62d 62d 63d +5.4 '+17.5 +173.3 +69,0 +4.5 +14.0 +79.6 +49.1 +0.8 +7.5 -26.4 +33.9 +2.4 +1.6 +51.9 +93.3 +29.5 +99.3 (NA) (NA) -6.6 -4.1 +3.2 +151.7 -26.0 -50.6 -46.2 -78.4 +6.6 +7.4 +66.9 +236.6 (NA) +2.6 -3.2 +134.7 7 Private nonfarm housing starts 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial floor space^ 13 New business incorporations 14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted) 63d +1.9 +36.8 -14.9 +4.4 -35.4 +309.6 -88.9 -20.8 +108.4 62d 62d 63d +95.0 +19.2 +0.2 +70.5 +39.4 -55.2 +41.5 +53.6 -34.1 +67.5 +50.5 -38.1 +44-8 -40.2 (NA) +117.8 -27.9 (NA) -85.8 -10.0 -36.9 +76.1 +41.3 +32.0 +82.9 +9.1 +24.0 16 Corporate profits after taxes (0) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. . 19 Stock prices 500 common stocks 60th 63d 63d 63d 63d 63d +98.0 +7.0 +39.6 +19.1 +77.2 +7.4 +61.4 +6.5 +63.1 +4-4 +48.7 +30.2 +33.5 +0.8 +86.2 +10.0 +51.4 -16.2 +24.3 -0.5 +124.0 +11.6 +69.5 -1.0 (NA) (NA) +17.4 +66.7 NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) +63.9 +60.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -63.4 -60.1 (NA) (NA) +142.9 (NA) +210.0 -4-1 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) +99.4 +34.9 (NA) (NA) 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . 43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. 47 Industrial production 49. GNP in current dollars (Q) 63d 63d 63d 60th +18.2 +2.8 +49.4 +41.8 +11.3 +1.7 +43.1 +33.0 +9.9 +0.2 +21.1 +32.7 +15.4 +2.9 +45.2 +46.4 +47.9 (NA) +193.4 +133.7 +25.6 +5.4 +50.5 +53.5 -33.7 (NA) -36.8 -42.5 +16.3 (NA) +48.1 +30.4 +27.1 (NA) +75.8 +40.3 50, GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y 52. Personal income 54. Sale's of retail stores 55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods . .. 4 60th 63d 63d 63d +31.3 +67.6 +39.5 +36.2 +24.0 +59.2 +31.1 +25.4 +16.7 +47.5 +34.2 +26.2 +28.6 +57.2 +45.5 +31.7 (MA) +148.6 +127.4 +72.6 +28.3 +52.3 +57.0 +39.7 -22.2 -51.6 -43.2 -40.5 +29.4 +59.4 +24.8 +12.9 +40.3 +40.7 +43.3 +24.7 63d +3.7 +1.8 +12.4 +15.1 +19.4 +23.3 -28.2 -6.8 +1.2 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q): a. Actual b. Anticipated4 60th 69th +71.3 +87.7 +25.5 +40.3 +24.3 +35.2 +47.0 +66.5 (NA) (NA) +235.0 +194.9 -75.4 -55.8 +75.8 +28.9 +92.3 +78.9 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . . 64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories ..... 66. Consumer installment debt 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . . 63d 62d 62d 60th -2.4 +30.9 +65.7 +11.7 -5.6 +16.5 +51.6 +20.1 +9.9 +24.1 +68.1 +48.0 +16.0 +55.8 +118.1 +34.0 +38.2 +64.5 -41.1 (NA) +25.0 +70.6 +149.9 -32.6 -30.8 (NA) (NA) +0.2 -17.8 (NA) (NA) +26.6 -18.5 (NA) (NA) -24.0 60th 61st +5.1 +1.44 +14.2 -0.78 +4.0 -5.36 +1.1 +4.52 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 2 Accession rate manufacturing 3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted) 6 New orders durable goods industries 24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS NBER LAGGING INDICATORS OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q)^ 98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5^ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or T (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52,55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of"3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9,13,14,17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough month is used astfie base. See MCD footnote to appendixC. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA-Not available. x Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3 4 ing average of the seasonally adjusted series. Measures are differences from the reference trough levels. Anticipated expenditures (4th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are 5 used for all other entries„ Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. 63 Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961 Duration in months Contraction (trough from previous peak) Trough Cycle (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak (X) 18 8 32 18 65 30 22 46 18 34 36 (X) 48 30 78 36 99 (X) 40 54 50 52 101 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893 . . December 1895 June 1899 September 1902 . . 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 40 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 JuOy 1921 May 1907 January 1910 January 1913 August 1918 January 1920 May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 18 33 19 12 44 10 22 44 46 43 35 51 28 56 32 36 67 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 October 1926 August 1929 May 1937 February 1945 November 1948 July 1953 14 13 43 13 8 11 27 21 50 80 37 45 36 40 64 63 88 48 41 34 93 93 45 56 August 1954 April 1958 February 1961 July 1957 May 1960 13 9 9 35 25 (X) 58 44 34 48 34 (X) Average , all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 10 cycles, 1919-1961 4 cycles, 1945-1961 19 15 10 30 35 36 49 50 46 2 54 3 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 8 cycles, 1919-1961. 3 cycles, 1945-1961 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 October 1860. . April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 March 1882 May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894 June 1897 December 1900 X 49 46 4 46 5 48 42 6 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. X 3 5 2 4 6 25 cycles, 1857-1960. 9 cycles, 1920-1-960. Source: 4 cycles, 1945-1960. 21 cycles, 1857-1960. 7 cycles, 1920-1960. 3 cycles, 1945-1960. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 65 Appendix B,-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in — Selected series Apr. 195* Feb. 1961 Aug. 1954 Oct. 1949 June 1938 Mar. 1933 Nov. 1927 July 1924 July 1921 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial 13. New business incorporations 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . * 23. Industrial materials prices 24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus... 29. New building permits, private housing Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21 '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21 '34 Dec. '26 June ' 24Jan. '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21 June '32 July '32 Aug. '28 June ' 24July '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '38 '39 (NA) Apr. '38 June '38 (NA) (NA) Oct. Dec. Oct. '49 Oct. '49 Oct. '49 4thQ '49 2ndQ '49 July '49 Oct. '49 (NSC) June June May 2ndQ IstQ May June May '38 '38 '38 '38 '38 '38 '38 '38 Mar. May July IstQ 3rdQ Mar. Mar. Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 (NA) (NA) '33 '32 Nov. '27 July '24 (NSC) (NSC) '33 (NSC) (NSC) '32 '33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 (NA) (NA) '33 (NSC) (NSC) '33 4thQ Aug. Jan. IstQ 3rdQ June June 2ndQ '38 '40 '39 '40 IstQ July May 3rdQ '33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21 (NSC) Apr. '22 (NSC) '33 (NA) (NA) '33 (NA) '31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22 May '61 June Jan. '61 Nov. Mar. '61 Apr. Oct. '60 Dec. Dec. T60 Apr. Nov. !60 Feb. Dec. '60 Feb. '58 '57 '58 '57 '58 '58 '58 (NSC) (NSC) Mar. '54 Sep. '53 Feb. '54 Mar. '54 Sep. '53 Aug. Feb. July June June Apr. Jan. Feb. '61 May '61 Feb. '61 4thQ '60 IstQ '61 (NSC) Dec. '60 Apr. '61 May July Apr. IstQ IstQ Feb. May Mar. '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 Aug. Sep. Apr. 2ndQ 2ndQ Apr. Sep. Jan. '54 '54 '54 '54 '54 '54 '54 '54 Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ '61 Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Sep. !'61 June 61 Book value of manufacturers1 inventories Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ '61 3rdQ Apr. Aug. 2ndQ '58 '59 '58 '58 IstQ Apr. Sep. IstQ '55 '55 '54 '55 '49 '49 '49 '49 '49 '49 '49 Sep. Sep. NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments. 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) 47 . Industrial production 49. GNP in current dollars (Q) 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 52 . Personal income 53, Labor income in mining, rafg., construction.. 54. Sales of retail stores July '21 (NA) Apr. '21 4thQ '21 (NA) 2ndQ '21 (NA) Mar. '22 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. 62. 64. 67. '49 '50 '50 '50 Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in — Selected series May 1960 July 1957 July 1953 Nov. 1948 May 1937 Aug. 1929 Oct. 1926 May 1923 Jan. 1920 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial 13 . New business incorporations 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 23 . Industrial materials prices 24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus... 29. New building permits, private housing (NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 (NA) May >59 Nov. June Apr. May July Nov. July Nov. '60 '59 '59 '59 '59 '59 '58 Mar. Feb. Oct. July Dec. Nov. Feb. '56 '56 '55 '56 '55 '56 '55 (NSC) (NSC) Feb. '51 Jan. '53 Feb. '51 Feb. '51 July '50 Mar. July May June Jan. Apr. Oct. Apr. '60 Feb. '60 Jan. '60 2ndQ '60 IstQ '60 (NSC) May '60 Apr. '60 Mar. Mar. Feb. 3rdQ 3rdQ Aug. Aug. Aug. '57 '57 '57 '57 '57 '57 '57 '57 June July July 2ndQ 2ndQ Oct. July Mar. '53 '53 153 '53 '53 '53 '53 '53 Sep. '48 Jan. '48 July '48 4thQ »48 4thQ '48 Oct. '48 Aug. '48 (NSC) July July May 3rdQ 3rdQ June May Sep. '37 '37 '37 '37 '37 '37 '37 '37 3rdQ Apr. Sep. 4thQ '57 '58 '57 '57 3rdQ Mar. Sep. 4thQ '53 '54 '53 '53 4thQ May Jan. 2ndQ 3rdQ Dec. Oct. 3rdQ '37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20 (NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20 (NSC) '37 (NA) (NA) (NA) '37 Jan. '30 '32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20 '55 Mar. '53 '46 July '37 '46 Dec. '36 (NA) »48 '48 Feb. '37 '48 Mar. '37 (NA) '48 '47 (NA) '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 '29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NSC) Mar. '23 Sep. '29 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Jan. Jan. Dec. Dec. '19 '19 (NA) July '19 Apr. »20 (NA) (NA) NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments. 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) 47. Industrial production 49. GNP in current dollars (Q) 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 52 . Personal income 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.. 54. Sales of retail stores '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20 (NA) (NSC) (NSC) 3rdQ '29 (NA) (NSC) (NSC) 3rdQ '29 (NA) Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24 (NA) (NA) (NA) Sep. '29 (NSC) July '20 (NSC) Sep. '29 Aug. NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. 62. 64. 67. Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing .Mar. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories Sep. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ '60 '61 '60 '59 '48 »49 '49 '49 NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trougft or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. NA Not available. 66 NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. AppendixC.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes 1/5 Monthly series Period covered CI I C i/c MCD for MCD span Average duration of run (ADR) CI I C MCD NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. 2. 30. 3. 4. 5. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg,.... Jan. '53-Sep.'65 .48 .42 Accession rate, manufacturing Jan. » 53-Sep. '65 4.75 4.47 Nonagri. 'placements, all industries... Jan. ' 53-Sep. »65 1.83 1.34 Layoff rate, manufacturing Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.20 8.26 Temporary layoff, all industries Jan. '53-Sep> '65 17.13 16.59 Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.95 4.38 6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan.. '53-Sep. '65 3.76 3.33 .19 1.40 1.09 3.42 3.64 2.23 3.20 1.23 2.41 4.55 3 4 2 3 5 .74 .84 .63 .77 .96 2.08 2.14 2.11 1.95 1.57 1.50 1.54 1.52 1.46 1.42 11.69 9.50 7.24 8.94 6.61 3.75 3.72 3.97 4.69 2.69 2.17 1.51 2.02 2.20 2 3 .95 .66 1.69 1.81 1.42 12.67 1.58 8.44 3.97 4.41 1.52 2.51 3 .88 1.83 1.60 10.86 3.41 .97 9.41 3.08 1.43 .89 7.91 2.54 1.29 .53 1.15 2.18 1.00 1.70 10.72 7.84 1.54 6 4 6 3 2 3 6 6 1 C ) 1.60 .84 1.88 H 1.38 .80 1.85 .66 2.71 .78' 1.92 C1) 1.49 C1) 1.55 1.48 1.71 1.38 1.52 1.63 1.63 1.39 1.46 12,67 9.50 15.20 13.82 6.61 7.24 8.94 11.69 3.00 3.39 2.63 2.88 4.08 3,19 2.23 2.58 .49 1.68 .25 1.64 1.92 1.02 3 2 .81 .57 2.20 2.37 1.79 1.58 6.61 9.50 4.55 3.97 5.24 2.84 1.85 3 .76 2.37 1.62 7.60 3.57 4.77 1.98 2.41 3 .77 1.88 1,63 8.94 3.49 5.79 1.04 4.00 .73 1.45 1.41 2 2 .95 .99 3.17 2.49 1.85 2.11 8.94 11.69 3.77 3.87 Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .30 Total nonagri cultural employment Jan. '53-Dec. '65 .36 Unemployment rate, total Jan. ' 53-Dec. '65 3.92 Unemployment rate, married males Nov ' 54-Dec ' 655.39 Average weekly insured unemployment rate , State Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.19 46. Help-wanted advertising Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.00 .14 .30 3.04 4.55 .26 .20 2.19 2.66 .55 1.50 1.39 1.71 1 2 2 2 .55 .80 .72 .91 4.90 2.01 2.54 3.41 1.46 1.60 1.60 1.56 16.89 25.83 8.16 7.82 4.90 3.42 3.95 4.00 2.19 1.87 3.29 2.30 .67 .81 1 1 .67 .81 4.90 3.10 1,75 1.39 7.60 8.94 4.90 3.10 47. Industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02 51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57 52 Personal income Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .51 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. . Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .84 54 . Sales of retail stores Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .97 55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .16 .54 1.50 .26 .52 .83 .76 .64 .44 .63 .44 .71 2.34 .58 .82 1.88 1 3 1 1 3 .71 .58 .58 .82 .70 3.62 1.65 4.61 2.67 2.08 1.67 1.50 1.54 1.55 1.57 11.69 30.40 21.71 13.82 15.20 3.62 4.29 4.61 2.67 4.84 .09 .13 .71 1 .71 3.90 1.54 8.00 3.90 .56 .53 .40 .19 .32 .49 1.28 .38 2 1 .72 2.41 .38 10.13 1.57 1.63 6.61 3.51 21.71 10.13 .56 .84 .33 .11 .51 .82 .65 .14 1 1 .65 8.94 .14 11.69 1.49 1.63 13.82 8.94 21.71 11.69 Federal cash payments to public. ......Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.42 4.25 Federal cash receipts from public 3.80 Jan, '55-Dec. '64 3.87 Defense Dept . oblig . , procurement Jan. '56-Sep. '65 27.42 27.34 Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. '53-Sep, '65 13.86 13.59 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 24.51 24.35 Military contract awards in U.S .82 5.16 .60 6.37 2.16 12.68 1.26 10.77 8.28 2.94 6 6 6 6 6 C'1) C11) C1) 1.57 1.59 1.43 1.40 1.63 1.45 1.43 1.43 1.42 1.57 8.00 14.87 8.92 6.64 8.44 New orders, defense products Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Corporate bond yields Municipal bond yields Mortgage yields ' 1.92 11.72 4.46 1.12 .93 1.41 .53 2.48 1.90 1.10 .65 .11 6 2 2 4 3 1 1.57 .73 2.53 .98 2.76 .93 2.27 .87 2.58 .65 10.00 1.48 1.77 2.00 1.62 1.88 1.92 24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18 3.81 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Jan ! 53-Sep '65 9.30 9.17 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69 4.39 7. Private nonf arm housing starts May ' 59-Sep ' 65 7.16 7.08 29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.65 3.28 38. Index of net business formation .79 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .60 13. New business incorporations Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 2.49 2.18 14. Liabilities of business failures Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24 15. Large business failures Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6512.31 12.12 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .59 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks Jan. * 53-Sep. '65 2.49 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.46 26. Buying policy production materials; commitments 60 days or longer. ....... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 5.27 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries Jan '53-Sep '65 7.47 23, Industrial materials prices Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.31 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. 42 43. 40, 45, NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 64. Book value of mfrs. ' inventories Jan. '53-Sep. '65 65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 66. Consumer installment debt Jan. '53-Sep. '65 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 82. 83 90 91. 92. 99 114 115. 116. 117 118. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6522.53 22.53 5.00 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.70 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.65 1.31 Jan. '60-Sep. '65 1.44 1.31 2.08 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.46 Jul. '61-Sep '65 .07 .11 t) H x () 2.58 3.35 2.02 2.07 2.83 9.50 2.53 3.68 6.61 8,00 3.68 3.61 5.67 3.66 8.00 5.56 10.00 See footnotes at end of table. 67 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued T/c Monthly series Period covered CI I C i/c MCD for MCD span Average duration of run (ADR) CI I C MCD OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES^-Con. 86. Exports , excluding military aid Jan.'53-Oct. '64 3.81 87 . General imports Jan. '53-Oct. '64 3.04 81 . Consumer price s .15 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 94. Construction contracts, value Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 6.64 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan . ' 53-Sep . ' 65 1.45 3.56 2.87 .09 6.38 .54 .94 .80 .13 1.55 1.28 3.77 3.59 .69 4.12 .42 4 4 1 5 1 .91 .86 .69 .87 .42 1.78 1.83 5.63 1.55 5.63 1.66 1.62 1.54 1.52 1.57 14.10 10.85 16.89 8.00 10.86 4.06 3.54 5.63 3.15 5.63 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 .79 .86 .87 .64 .84 .67 .47 3.38 2.58 3.62 2.71 2.67 2.49 3.38 1.52 1.48 1.73 1.62 1.45 1.69 1.37 21.71 10.13 25.33 19.00 16.89 16.89 13.82 4.87 5.17 5.81 5.00 6.00 4.84 5.21 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 123 . Canada 122 . United Kingdom 121. OECD European countries 125 . West Germany 126 . France 127. Italy 128. Japan Jan.1'53-Sep. '65 Jan. 53-Sep. '65 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Jan.' 53-Sep. '65 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .93 1.08 .86 1.51 1.45 1.50 1.73 .82 1.02 .77 1.33 1.38 1.40 1.23 .52 .42 .49 .66 .62 .72 1.22 1.58 2.41 1.55 2.02 2.24 1.96 1.01 Period covered cT I C l/t i/5 Quarterly series QCD for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) CI I C QCD NBER LEADING INDICATORS 11. 16. 18. 22. New capital appropriations} mf g. , Corporate profits after taxes Profits per dollar of sales, mfg Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries IQr53-IIIQ'65 10.36 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 5.60 IQ'53-IIIQr65 6.03 4.70 3,09 3.59 7.69 4.29 3.80 .61 .72 .95 1 1 1 .61 .72 .95 2.94 3.33 2.38 1.32 1.32 1.35 3.33 5.00 4.17 2.94 3.33 2.38 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.34 2.87 3.11 .92 1 .92 2.38 1.25 5.00 2.38 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 1.23 1.47 1.30 .38 .35 .31 1.09 1.39 1.26 .35 .25 .25 1 1 1 .35 3.33 5.56 .25 .25 10.00 1.28 1.22 1.16 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 3.21 .77 2.99 ,26 1 .26 5.56 1,47 5.56 5.56 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 .84 .42 .67 .62 1 .62 2.94 1.22 5.56 2.94 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 1.99 .96 1.80 .54 1 .54 2.38 1.47 3.33 2.38 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 11.47 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6,63 7.37 2.47 1.20 7.95 3.27 6.38 .93 .75 .19 1 1 1 .93 .75 .19 2.38 2.08 4.17 1.16 1.25 1.32 3.85 4.17 8.33 2.38 2.08 4.17 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 50. GNP in 1958 dollars 49 . GNP in current dollars 57. Final sales 5.56 3.33 7.14' 5.56 10.00 10.00 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 110 . Total private borrowing Ill . Corporate gross savings 97. Backlog of capital appro. , mfg 1 Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more. The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957. "CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical 68 component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "MCD-" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical .movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. "I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month sipans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank .debits, all 3XISA's except New York (series 51). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR, from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 2.—Average Unit Changes Monthly series 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories Period covered Unit of me a sure CI I C Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate, bil. dol.. 3.60 3.47 .74 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 1.51 do .29 1.44 25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol... .48 .46 .13 84. Federal cash surplus or deficit Jan. '55-Dec. '64 Ann. rate, bil. dol.. 4.34 4.22 .82 93. Free reserves Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46.86 Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate, 85 . Change in money supply percent . .! .3.11 3.12 .29 98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. '53-Sep. '65 do .29 2.53 2.52 112. Change in business loans Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate, bil. dol.. 1.39 1.35 .35 .79 .31 .87 113. Change in consumer installment debt... 'Jan. '53-Sep. '65 ....do 88. Merchandise trade balance Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28 Quarterly series 21. Change in business inventories, all industries . . . . Period covered IQ'53-IIIQ'65 95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65 89a U.S. balance of payments (liquidity).. IQ'53-IIIQ'65 Unit of measure I C 4.70 5 .98 1.48 1.45 8.94 2.79 4.97 3.51 6 (*) 1.67 1.50 4 .98 1.69 1.62 6.08 7.60 3.00 3.10 5.16 1.68 5 .98 L.59 1.43 7.44 2.74 3 .68 2.03 1.60 OD.13 3.49 10.88 8.78 6 L.37 1.37 9.50 2.67 < ix> 1.43 6 ( 1.43 10.13 2.41 ) 3.87 2.56 3.23 The measures in the above table are computed by an additive method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in 5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64 3 .92 L.65 1.49 10.13 3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42 2.56 3.13 2.64 I/C Average duration of run (ADR) for I/C QCD QCD C QCD span CI I Ann. rate, bil. dol.. 2.28 1.44 1.00 1.43 2.49 1.78 .76 1.35 do Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04 Hlot computed for series when MCD is "6" or more. CI I/C Average duration of run (ADR) for I/C MCD MCD C MCD span CI I 2 .46 1.79 1.35 4.55 1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85 2 .45 1.67 1.25 3.13 2.88 2.17 2.72 the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical cqmponent from the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in part 1. 69 Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1965 TO JUNE 1966) 1965 May June 4. Temporary layoff, all industries 77.6 73.8 5. Average weekly initial claims. State unemployment insurance 82. 3 83.8 103.1 105.8 13. New business incorporations1 95.7 106.6 14. Liabilities of business failures 15 . Large busine ss failure s 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. IB. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2... 30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1. 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg... Si . Consumer price s 82. Federal cash payments to public1 83. Federal cash receipts from public3... 90. 91. 92. 112. 128. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement..., Defense Dept. obligations, total Military contract awards in U.S Change in business loans'*' Japan, industrial production index. .. July 107.2 140.3 99.0 86.9 105 3 83.9 77.4 102.6 95.0 93.1 100.7 104.7 96.7 99.5 102.3 86.3 101.3 102.5 96.3 106.3 107.4 111.3 102.4 107.1 Aug. Sept. 94.8 1966 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 90.4 89.9 Feb. Mar. Apr. 92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1 92.6 May June 73.3 81.9 82.6 88.6 104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1 94.9 86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2 95.8 107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1 95.7 91.3 94.6 95.0 83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106.7 100.8 101.6 98.8 101.8 103.1 100.4 97.9 98.0 99.5 100.3 100.8 101.1 102.0 106.2 96.3 100.5 96.9 112.2 121.8 111.7 97.6 82.1 79.3 76.7 92.8 102.1 110.7 109.8 92.9 92.7 90.2 88.6 92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9 101.6 100.0 98.6 99.7 98 4 1897. 99.9 99.9 99.8 100.0 99.9 97.7 104.1 101.2 98.3 97.0 99 9 100 2 100 0 100 1 100 1 104 0 97 0 114 2 96 9 101 9 4431. -4573. 1313. 2181. -4969. 100.0 99.5 100 0 101 4 165. 100.1 100.1 102.6 102.2 100 0 100 0 105 8 91 4 655. -2964. 100.0 100.5 99 9 94 4 1315. 100.0 100.0 99.5 98.9 99 9 99 9 94 1 97 & 2258. -1689. 93.8 88 6 90 2 100 0 100.1 179.9 87.4 87.1 143 1 115 2 1 92 4 171 9 72 8 88 4 99 5 98 9 98 5 99.8 100.0 96.4 100.0 106 3 101 1 99 9 99.6 96.4 91 7 85 4 101 3 98.8 99.2 96 1 90 5 101 3 102.3 83.4 82 0 87 2 99 5 100.7 99.2 97 5 113 8 100 5 108.2 93.2 99 7 103 9 99 3 99.5 82.8 94 4 95 5 100 4 94.0 95.6 96 1 84 3 100 5 99.4 99.9 99.9 98.6 98.0 99 8 99 9 100 3 104 7 1897. 4431. 95.7 91 4 90 1 100 2 99.9 179.0 142 2 174 7 99 8 100.6 NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. 1 Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and 2 Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data ally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census program. ^Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed. 70 from the application of these trading-day factors. to yield the monthly seasonMethod II seasonal adjustment Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961 Percent change: Contractions: Reference peak to reference trough Jan. MayOct. Aug. May 1920-July 1923- July 1926-Nov. 1929-Mar. 1937 -June 1921 1924 1927 1933 1938 Feb . 1945-Oct . 19454 Nov . 1948-Oct . 1949 July 1953-Aug. 19545 July 1957-Apr. 1958 May 1960-Feb. 1961 Median:6 All contractions Excluding postwar contractions 4 contractions since 1948. 50. GNP 49. GNP in 1958 in curdollars rent dollars (Q)1 (Q)1 51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except New York 52. Personal income 54. Sales of retail stores -19.7 -2.3 +0.4 -49.6 -11.9 -22.5 -3.1 t8.7 -61.9 -16.5 -21.9 0.0 +0.9 -50.8 -10.9 -4.3 -1.9 0.0 -43.5 -17.3 +7.9 +2.3 2 +2.2 +25.4 +8.8 (NA) -1.6 -2.2 -3.4 -1.4 -10.9 -3.4 -0.8 -1.8 -0.2 -1.0 -4.0 +1.6 -3.1 +2.4 -4.0 -4.7 0.0 +0.2 +0.9 +8.6 -0.5 -0.5 -2.4 -2.7 +2.2 +4.1 +3.5 +3.2 +1.6 -16.0 -1.9 -2.8 -3.1 -2.0 -2.2 -16.0 -8.8 -2.1 -1.9 -2.8 -1.3 -3.6 -0.8 -2.4 +0.1 -2.6 -1.4 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments 47. Index of industrial production (NA) (NA) (NA) -31.6 -10.4 -31.6 -18.0 -5.9 -51.8 -31.7 (NA) -0.3 +2.3 -28.0 -8.9 -7.9 -5.1 -3.4 -3.9 -1.9 -31.4 -8.5 -9.1 -14.1 -5.7 -5.6 -6.5 -3.6 Percent change: Expansions: Reference trough to reference peak 43. Unemployment rate, total Reference peak to reference trough 47. Index of industrial production 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)1 49. GNP in current dollars (Q)1 51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except New York 2 2 4.0 3.2 2 1.9 3 0.0 11.2 2 2 Rate at trough 2 11.9 2 5.5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 1.1 3.8 2.6 4.2 5.2 3.3 7.9 6.1 7.4 6.8 +3.4 3.5 7.1 +3.6 +3.4 3.9 4.0 7.6 7.1 3 43. Unemployment rate, total Reference trough to reference peak 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments Change in rate, Rate at peak peak to trough 52. Per- 54. Sales of retail sonal stores income Change in rate, trough to peak 2 Rate at trough 2 Rate at peak 2 1921-May 1924-Oct. 1927-Aug 1933-May 1938-Feb. 1923 1926 1929 1937 19454 (NA) (NA) (NA) +40.2 +45.9 +64.2 +30.4 +24.1 +119.9 +183.3 (NA) +12.4 +12.6 +42.1 (NA) +25.1 +14.7 +13.3 +73.9 +169.6 +23.5 +18.9 +20.4 +78.4 +131.7 +29.6 +13.2 +12.2 +76.3 +157.3 +15.7 +9.9 +3.6 +69.2 +105.4 -8.7 -3.6 2 -0.9 -14.2 -18.9 Oct. 1945-Nov. Oct . 1949-July Aug. 1954-July Apr. 1958-May 1948 19535 1957 1960 +17.2 +17,8 +8.9 +6.8 +21.9 +50.0 +19.7 +25.2 +3.3 +28.8 +11.8 +11.4 +34.9 +44.1 +22.4 +15.1 +51.5 +49.3 +28.6 +21.2 +28.5 +41.4 +22.1 +13.3 +63.8 +25.6 +20.3 +11.9 +0.3 -5.3 -1.9 -2.2 3.3 7.9 6.1 7.4 +17.5 +35.2 +12.3 +27.5 +33.8 +26.7 +20.5 -3.7 7.1 3.3 +13.0 +13.0 +26.6 +23.6 +12.1 +11.6 +20.9 +28.6 +24.4 +39.0 +21.3 +25.3 +16.0 +23.0 -2.6 -2.0 $.3 6.8 3.7 3.9 July July Nov. Mar. June Median:6 All expansions Excluding wartime expansions 4 expansions since 1945... 2 11.9 2 5.5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 3.2 1.9 3.2 11.2 1.1 2 2 3 3 3.6 2.6 4.2 5.2 NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or M2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. NA Not available. ^-The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670. 2 Based on average for the calendar year. 3 Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used. 4 World War II contraction or expansion period. 5 Korean War contraction or expansion period. 6 The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 71 Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 89b. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U. S. balance of payments — official settlements basis (Mil. dol.) 1948 .. . 1950! '.!!.' 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 ... ... ... .. . • •• ... ... ... •• • ... ... ... ... ... 72 .. ! -409 -864 -428 ... ... .!. ... -453 +774 -286 .. . .. . .. . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. . ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -1,015 -454 -935 ... ... -1,525 -803 -1,057 .. . ... ... INDEX SERIES FINDING GUIDE (Page Numbers) Economic Process Group and Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Timing classification Tables Charts 1 2 3 1 2 4 5 Appendixes 6 7 B G F C D E Page Issue Page Issue 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. . 2 Accession rate manufacturing 46. Help-wanted advertising 30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus — 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments 42. Total nonagricultural employment 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 4. Temporary layoff all industries 5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . 45, Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State. 43. Unemployment rate, total 40. Unemployment rate, married males L L C L C C L L L C C C 10 10 15 10 15 15 10 10 10 15 15 15 c c c c c c c c 16 16 16 17 17 17 16 17 L L L L L L U L L L Lg U U 11 11 12 12 11 11 22 11 11 11 18 20 22 22 L L L Lg 14 14 14 18 14 18 14 14 14 59 59 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 24 24 28 24 28 28 24 24 24 28 28 28 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 29 29 28 29 29 29 29 29 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 25 25 25 25 24 24 34 25 25 25 30 32 34 34 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 27 26 27 30 27 30 27 27 27 3 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 27 26 29 34 30 30 26 26 26 26 62 62 63 63 66 62 63 66 62 63 62 63 66 62 62 62 62 63 63 63 63 62 63 66 66 66 66 66 66 62 63 62 62 63 63 66 62 62 62 63 63 63 66 62 63 66 62 63 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 70 70 70 72 72 *66 *66 72 71 71 72 *66 *66 *66 71 71 • 71 Jan. Jan. Feb. Oct. Jan . Feb. Jan. Nov. July Mar. Feb. Feb. r 71 71 71 71 Aug. Aug. Sept. Aug. Aug. Apr. Aug. Mar. '65 '65 '64 '65 '65 '66 '65 '65 74 74 74 *66 65 *66 June July June Aug. May Dec. ' 65 ' 65 ' 65 '63 ' 64 '63 68 65 72 66 68 Nov. June Nov. June Nov. '64 ' 64 '65 ' 64 '64 *66 71 65 66 64 66 *68 65 *66 Dec. Aug. June June June June June June Mar. '63 '65 ' 64 ' 64 ' 64 ' 64 ' 63 ' 64 '64 *66 66 69 70 73 73 71 73 64 74 Jan, Apr. Aug. Aug. Oct. Oct. Aug. Oct. June Sept. '64 '64 '64 '64 '65 '65 '65 '65 ' 64 '65 66 '66 '64 '63 ' 66 '66 '66 '63 ' 63 '64 '66 '66 II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE 49 GNP in current dol lars 50. GNP in 1958 dollars 47. Industrial production 52 Personal income . 53. Labor income in mining mfg. constr. .... 54. Sales of retail stores 57 Final sales 51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y 60 60 59 •• 68 68 67 67 67 67 68 67 71 71 71 71 70 72 72 72 72 72 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT 29. New building permits, private housing 7. Private nonfarm housing starts 38. Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations 6. New orders, durable goods industries 24. New orders, mach, and equip, industries . . 94 Construction contracts value 9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. . 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment11. New capital appropriations, mfg 61. Bus. expenditures/new plant and equip . . Ill Corporate gross savings 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .>. u 58 60 •• 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 67 67 68 68 68 68 68 70 •. 73 July '64 IV. INVENTORIES 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. . 21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . . 31. Change mfg and trade inventories 64 Manufacturers' inventories total 20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . . 65 Mfrs ' inventories finished goods. 37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. . 26. Buying policy production materials 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . . Lg L L 60 •• 62 63 66 69 69 69 67 69 67 67 67 67 70 V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS 23 Industrial materials prices 19 Stock prices 500 common stocks 55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods 81. Consumer prices 62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg 68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . . 16 Corporate profits after taxes 17. Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg 18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg 22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . . L L C U Lg Lg L L L 14 13 17 22 18 18 13 13 13 13 58 58 59 61 58 62 62 62 63 63 63 66 66 62 63 66 62 62 63 63 66 67 67 67 68 67 68 68 67 68 68 70 70 70 70 70 L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). ^Appendix G. 73 SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued (Page Numbers) Economic Process Group and Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Timing classification 1 2 Appendixes Tables Charts 3 1 2 4 5 6 7 B C D G F E Page Issue Page Issue VI. MONEY AND CREDIT U 85. Change in money supply 98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U U 93 Free reserves 66. Consumer installment debt Lg U 113. Change consumer installment debt U 112. Change in business loans U 110. Total private borrowing 114 115 116 117 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 32 32 32 30 33 32 32 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 33 33 33 33 33 30 25 26 u 22 22 22 22 9 9 9 9 33 34 34 34 u u u u u u u u 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 32 u u u u u u u 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 U U U Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Corporate bond yields Municipal bond yields u u 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Lg L 14 Liabilities of business failures L 15 Large business failures 20 20 20 18 20 20 20 21 21 21 Cl 21 18 12 12 61 *. 61 62 63 62 63 69 69 69 67 69 69 68 .. 62 62 63 63 66 67 67 67 67 67 68 67 67 70 70 70 73 74 66 70 71 71 72 Aug. Aug. Oct. Aug. July July Nov. '65 '65 '64 '64 ' 64 73 ' 64 73 '65 73 71 72 72 72 72 70 *66 *66 July July July July July Aug. Nov. Mar. ' 64 ' 64 ' 64 ' 64 ' 64 '64 '63 '64 71 72 72 74 Feb. Feb. Feb. July '66 '66 '66 '65 72 72 72 72 70 70 70 66 May May May Aug. Sept. Sept. Sept. Oct. ' 66 ' 66 '66 '65 '64 '64 '64 '64 66 67 67 67 67 68 68 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '64 '64 '64 '64 '64 '64 '64 74 74 74 74 74 July July July '64 ' 64 '64 July July July July July ' 64 '64 ' 64 '64 ' 64 VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 86 87. 88. 89 Exports excluding military aid General imports Merchandise trade balance U S balance of payments ............. U U U 68 68 69 69 .. VIU. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES 83 Federal cash receipts from public 82 Federal cash payments to public 84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . . 91. Defense Department obligations, total — 90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . 92. Military contract awards in U.S 99. New orders defense products . . 61 62 67 67 69 69 67 67 67 67 63 70 70 •• 70 70 70 IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 121 122. 123 125. 126 127 128. Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial production OECD production, United Kingdom production Canada.,... production, West Germany production France production Italy production, Japan 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 .. 70 DIFFUSION INDEXES Dl. Average workweek ...... 1-month. . 9-month. . D5. Initial claims 1-month. . 9-month.. D6. New orders . . 1-month. . 9-month.. Dll- Capital appropriations 1-quarter. . 3-quarter. . D19 Stock prices D23. Industrial materials prices D34. Profits, mfg D35. Net sales, mfrs D36. New orders 1-month. . 9-month. . 1-month. . 9-month.. 1-quarter. . 4-quarter. . 4-quarter. . D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month. . 6-month.. D47. Industrial production 1-month. . 6-month. . D48. Freight carloadings 4-quarter. . D54. Retail sales 1-month. . 9-month.. D58. Wholesale prices, mfg 1-month. . 6-month. . D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. . •• 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 42 42 43 43 42 42 42 42 46-7 46-7 56 56 46-9 46-9 72 68 73 73 72 69 73 73 Mar. Oct. May. May Apr. Oct. Feb. Feb. '65 '64 '65 '65 '65 '64 '65 '65 39 39 39 39 . . 39 41 41 43 43 43 43 43 45 . . 45 55 55 48-9 48-9 72 69 72 73 69 70 70 Apr. Oct. Apr. Feb. Oct. Nov. Nov. '65 '64 '65 '65 '64 '64 '64 40 40 40 40 41 40 40 40 40 41 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 44 44 45 50-3 50-3 52-3 52-3 72 70 73 70 68-9 73 70 73 73 69 Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Nov. Apr. Oct. Apr. Feb. Nov. 48-51 48-51 52-5 52-5 •• - •• •• •• '65 64 '65 '64 '64 ' 65 '64 '65 '65 '64 T L - leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G. 74 •. 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