Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1966
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June 1966
DATA THROUGH MAY
Series ESI No. 66-6
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis
Punch Card File of Business Cycle Series
iii
iv
iv
©©©©trnpfti]©^© ©[nKo] [^^©©©^ItyiD 3 ©©
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
1M©0© (D)©G©
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
8
10
24
©©0 [^©©maD0©©
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
/
I
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CONTINUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
Series Finding Guide
-___
58
62
63
65
66
67
70
71
72
73
r ) A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 89b, Excess of receipts or payments in
U.S. balance of payments—official settlements basis,
formerly available beginning with the first quarter of
1964, are now available beginning with the first quarter
of I960.
2. Appendix F includes historical data for series
89b.
;JL
The July issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on July 22.
HI
Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.
A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.
IV
Students df economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
i>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
i>
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
t>
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history? today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
[>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations,
L>
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
[>
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and^from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a singL month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for ,MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production,
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3), Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes, (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements maybe significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are .made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data,
(Data may be actual monthly fig
ures or MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Broken tine indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indi
cates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory i n vest men tf buying policy/ and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
^^
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
Hours
2 Accession rate, manufacturing
Per 100 empl . .
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
Thous
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
Per 100 empl . .
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
Thous
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
do
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus
Bil. dol
do.....
24- New orders, mach. and equip, indus. . . .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Mil. sq. ft.
and industrial.
floor space . .
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
Bil. dol
6
11. New capita! appropriations, mfg
. .do .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann. rate,
thous
29. New bldg. permits, private housing .... 1957-59-100 ..
do
38. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Number
14. Liabilities of business failures
Mil. dol
15 Large business failures
No. per week . .
16. Corporate profits after taxes6.
Ann. rate,
bil dol
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost6 mfg
1957-59-100..
18 Profits per dol. of sales mfg
Cents
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
6
corporate, al! industries .
Percent
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
1941-43-10...
21. Change in business
inventories, all
Ann. rate,
67
industries '
bil. dol
31. Change in book value, 7manufacturing
and trade inventories
do
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7
do. ...
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitdo.. .
ments 60 days or longer *
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
do
25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable
goods industries
Bil. dol
23. Industrial materials prices*
1957-59=100..
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thous
42. Total nonagri cultural employment
do
43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent
40. Unemployment rate, married males
do
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
do
46. Help-wanted advertising
1957-59=100..
47. Industrial production
do
50. GNP in 1958 dollars 6
Ann. rate,
bil do!
do .
49. GNP in current
dollars 6
6
do
57. Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
do
52 Personal income
do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59-100..
Mar.
1966
Feb.
1966
Unit of
measure
Apr.
1966
41.6
4.8
600
1.1
106
41.5
r5.2
589
rl.l
93
219
May
1966
1953 to
1965
(without
sign)3
May '65
to date
(without
sign)4
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.2
17.1
0.2
5.6
2.9
6.2
16.0
May '65
to date
(with
sign)5
Current percent change 2
Feb.
to
Mar.
1966
-0.2
+0.1
+8.3
+1.5
-1.8
-0.2
0.0
+2.5
+0.7 +12.3
Mar.
to
Apr.
1966
Apr.
to
May
1966
-0.2
0.0
-9.6 "(NA)
-1.7
-11.4
(NA)
+9.1
-7.5 +26.0
41.5
P4.7
522
pl.O
100
P41.4
(NA)
P513
(NA)
74
182
179
185
5.0
5.2
+1.3
+16.9
+1.6
-3.4
23.74
4-58
r24.89
r4.59
r24.l6
r4.82
p24-10
P4.85
3.8
4.2
2.3
2.8
+1.2
+1.5
+4.8
+0.2
-2.9
+5.0
-0.2
+0.6
67.48
5.49
p6.17
69.09
r5.66
71.63
P5.94
9.3
4.7
10.4
7.2
3.6
3.8
+2.7
+1.6
+2.2
+2.4
+3.1
+3.7
+4.9
(NA)
(NA)
1,349
105.1
109.6
17,868
94.59
rl,538
114.1
109.2
17,305
98.73
rl,478
rl03.1
108.4
17,022
106.93
pi, 275
P96.3
(NA)
(NA)
92.41
7.2
3.6
0.8
2.5
18.7
8.0
4.5
0.9
2.6
18.8
-0.9
-0.9
+0.3
+0.6
+0.2
+14.0
+8.6
-0.4
-3.2
-4.4
-3.9
-9.6
-0.7
-1.6
-8.3
-13.7
-6.6
(NA)
(NA)
+13.6
36
36
37
38
12.3
10.1
+0.9
0.0
-2.8
-2.7
r!05.6
P105.9
+0.7
-0.7
+0.3
91.60
86.78
-4.1
+3.1
-5.3
-4.9
+1.3
(NA)
r48.3
r!05.6
9.9
r!06.3 -
(NA)
(NA)
P13.4
92.69
88.88
+8.1
5.6
0.6
6.0
3.1
0.6
2.1
+3.1
+0.2
+2.1
4.3
1.3
+1.3
2.5
2.4
-0.2
2.3
1.9
+0.6
+13.3
+8.4
P+9.7
(NA)
3.6
3.6
0.0
+1.2
r+0.8
P+3.4
(NA)
1.5
1.2
+0.2
-0.4
+2.6
(NA)
46
53
51
52
6.5
6.4
-0.8
+15.2
-3.8
+2.0
67
68
69
70
5.3
2.2
+0.7
+1.5
+1.5
+1.4
85
86
82
75
7.5
6.0
+0.8
+1.2
-4.7
-8.5
+1.31
122.9
r+1.65
123.5
p+1.02
118.3
0.48
1,3
+0.04 +0.34 -0.23
-0.40
-2.6
62,501
69,079
3.7
1.9
r62,9!8
69,072
3.8
1.9
r62,933
69,317
3.7
1.8
p63,099
69,155
4.0
1.8
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
191
r!51.9
201
r!53.3
189
r!53.6
185
p!54.8
r+1 . 42
121.5
1.2
+0.1
+0.5
-1.6
0.4
0.4
3.3
5.6
+0.4
+0.3
+1.1
+2.5
+0.7
0.0
-2.7
0.0
0.0
+0.4
+2.6
+5.3
+0.3
-0.2
-8.1
0.0
4.2
3.1
+2.6
+8.7
0.0
3.0
1.0
3.8
0.9
+2.1
+0.7
+5.2
+0.9
-6.0
+0.2
-2.1
+0.8
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.6
2.2
2.1
+1.6
+2.2
+2.1
3,397.1 3,390.1 P3, 348.1
563.1
561.4
P565.5
151.2
rl51.6
P152.4
25,536 r25,020 p24,424
1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.8
0.7
0.7
1.2
+1.3
+0.6
+0.7
+0.4
+4.1
+0.7
+0.9
+1.1
-0.2
+0.3
+0.3
-2.0
-1.2
+0.4
+0.5
-2.4
nio/.a
n 9
n 9
+n o
-4~n 9
-4-n i
_i_n e;
633.6
713.9
705.8
3,263.9
557.4
149.9
25,263
103^8
0.28
10 A. 0
TO/,,?
+11.5
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE ]966
TABLE
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Feb.
1966
Mar.
1966
Apr.
1966
May
1966
58.00
r99.3
r99.0
r99.9
a59.60
P99.9
do
Bil.dol
p!07.6
69.0
r69.6
P70.3
do
Mil. dol
23.6,
68,^58
23.8
69,107
P23.8
69,638
Unit of
measure
1953 to May '65
to date
1965
(without (without
sign)3 sign) ^
May '65
to date
(with
sign)5
Current percent change2
Feb.
to
Mar.
1966
Mar.
to
Apr.
1966
Apr.
to
May
1966
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor 6cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
64. Book value of mfrs.11 inventories
65. Book value of mfrs. inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
oil, dol
1957-59=100 ..
3.2
0.6
4.3
0.6
+4.3
+0.1
-6.3
-6 '.9
+2.8
0.0
(NA)
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.8
+0.5
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.6
0.8
0.6
1.0
+0.6
+1.0
+0.8
+0.9
0.0
+0.8
(NA)
(NA)
2.0
3.6
+3.6
+5.3
4.4
3.9
4.3
9.6
8.6
12.9
+2.0
+2.1
+0.2
+7.7
+4.2
-5.4
-9.5
+17.2
+38.5
+10.4
-11.3
-32.8
(NA)
5.55
Percent
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83 Federal cash receipts from public .....
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95- Balance, 6Federal
income and product
account '7
90. Defense Dept oblig,, procurement
91 Defense Dept. obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U.S
99. New orders, defense
products
93. Free reserves*7
85 Change in money supply 7
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
.....do
do...
do
MiLdol
do
do
Bil.dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
38. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits .
110 Total private borrowing 6
Ill
112
113
114
115
116
117
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do. ...
Corporate gross savings 76
Ann. rate,
Change business loans
bil. dol
do
Change consumer installment debt 7 . . .
Treasury bill rate*
Percent
do
Treasury bond yields *
do
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
89. U.S. balance of payments 6 ' 7 :
a Liquidity balance basis
b Official settlements basis
81 Consumer prices
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.
do
Mil. dol
do
do
142.5
133.0
-9.5
153.5
138.6
-14.9
P162.5
r+0.2
1,420
1,947
2,299
(NA)
2.5
27.4
3.3
22.0
-1.2
+8.0 +37.1
+18.1
5,179
2,596
3.04
-107
5,879
2,357
r3.38
-246
6,444
3,466
r3.29
r-268
(MA)
(NA)
p2.76
p-355
13.9
24.5
22.5
98
8.1
11.8
11.6
47
+13.5
+3.5
+6.1
-9.2
+2.0
+11.2
-139
-15
(NA)
+9.6
(NA)
+47.1
-2.7 -16.1
-22
-87
-2.88
+8.52
+13.44
p-11.28
3.11
10.24
-0.26 HI. 40
+4.92 -24.72
+1.56
+7.56
+14.64
p-1.08
2.52
5.67
+6.00
+7.08 -15.72
P138.9
p+23.6
P153.4
PH4.2
p-9.2
P 72,436
p57,372
+7.21
+6.46
4.67
4.61
5.07
3.64
+8.87
+7.79'
4-63
4.63
5.28
3.72
(NA)
6.00
2,334.8. 2,594.4
1,992.9 2,072.7
+521.7
+341.9
do
do
r-563
r-245
1957-59-100 . .
do
Bil.dol
do
111.7
157
65.11
112.1
158
r66.76
P 20.32
+6.60
+6.37
4.61
4.55
5.24
3.56
(NA)
2,331.2
2,138.2
+193.0
112.6
161
r68.!8
P+10.93
(NA)
4.64
4.57
5.37
3.65
6.32
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p69.20
-0.09
11.5
4-3
9.9
1.6
+2.4
+1.6
1.39
0.87
6.7
1.6
1.4
2.5
3.60
0.90
2.1
1.1
1.7
2.2
-0.01
-0.14
+1.5
+0.8
+1.5
+1.2
0.1
3.8
3.0
58.4
0.6
3.8
5.3
128.8
341
(NA)
386
770
-263
-161
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
0.3
3.9
1.6
6.0
+0.2
+1.1
+1.6
+6.0
+1.66 -2.27
+1.33 -1.42
-0.4
-0.9
-1.7
+0.4
+4.1 -0.8
+2.2
-4.3
(NA)
+0.6
(NA)
+0.4 +11.1 -10.1
+3.2
+1.8
+4-0
+25.3 H179.8 -328.7
+0.4
+0.6
+2.5
+4-3
+0.4
+1.9
+2.1
+4.33
(NA)
+0.7
+0.4
+2.5
+2.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+1.5
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. 1Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4, 5,14,15, 40, 43r
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications.
^his average is based on month-tomonth
(or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus
Or
8
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure
as the basic data, rather than in percent.
This
9
balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Avg. workweek, prpd. wkrs,, mfg. (hours)
2. Accession rate, mfd. (per 1:00 employees)
30.
i
Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous
3. Layoff rate, mfg.
100 employees-
inverted scale)
4. Temp. layoff, all indus. (thous.-inverted
. MCD moving avg.-5
5. Avg. weekly initial claims,! State unempl
bed
bed
CHART
JUNE 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
=
l
oo
New orders, dur. goods indu
»••»
J
. New orders, mack and equip. Indus.
9. Cons'tr. contracts, corti. and indus. (mil. sq. ft* of
f
floor area. MCD moVmg~dvg.-6 term^""™T ^
1
,
1
1
u
°?
||
A.
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. Idol.)
41444144.
New| capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol|)
i_JJlLL.li
7.
Private nonfarm housing starts (ann. ra|e, millilpns
l]
c-s
29.
New bldg. permits, private housing units
U
o^
11
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
38. i Index of net business formation (1957-59=100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dolj
inverted scale. MCD moving avg.-6 term)
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.>
Inverted scale. MCD moving avg.-6 term)
bed
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (arm. rate, bif. dot.)
?- 18. Profits per dollar of sales> mfg., 0 (cents)
22. Ratio, profits to income originating
corporate, all industries, Q (percent)
___ j 19 r Stock prices, 500 common] stocks
_J__" (index: 1941-43=10)
CHART
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
20
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
10
0
.. Change in book ^a!ue, rpfg. and
i
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—5 term)
20.
Change injjbook v|ilue, mfrs.' inventories of
materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dpi.
MCD movijng avgj;—6 terfjfi)
37. purchased materijals, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying [policy, (irod. mtjs., percent reporting commitments 60 dpys or (onger
32. Vendor performance, percerjt reporting slower deliveries
i '
' " ;i
in unfilled! orders, dur, goods Indus, (bil. dol
tuinn .nvt/i^iLA tarml:._-.
-_„
1
tndustrial materialk prices (index: 1^57-59=100)
bed
1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT— Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident
|41.
"
,
Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions)
. Total nonagri. employment (millions)
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale)
40; Unemployment rate, married imales
(percent-inverted scale)
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State
(percent-inverted scale)
^ Helfcvwinted advertisingJindefeJ957-59=100)1
J
JjiimrjiMuluIuJUuuiL
Indicators
T
CHART
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
16
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit doL)
49. GNP in current dollars; Q (ann. rate, fail, dot
250
, f I I 1c | i!
! -I f I il ' f
iilil'iiuiIiMijJ f' di di of p '..., ;4; v i w nif L'I u u • j ;j. ^ ....,; ™..t.7.. vv
,.
;
W3ii " i)^SO'1pfc^i\( lf?; ^f^^fr^Ji^'fH^ *'''' '^; ' ' * ^
"~ " S:3~T5"to LW ^^ 1] c^?; c a
^
bed
CHART
JUNE 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except New York (ann. rate, tril.
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
j
3.0
—J
2.8
1
2.6
2.4
2.2
f.-7-..Jj
600
550
-i
500 "
450
170
160
150
- 140 s
130 I
52. Personal income i
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
\<
i,
53. Labor income in mining, mfg,, constr.
120
J
28
26
^
|
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
24
22
I
20
—a
-g
18
16
55. Wholesale prices
fa'rm prod, and fiods (Jex: 1957-59=10^1 ' Y\
I!
!l
I
1 . 1 . It. I !Li
14 „ j
120 =i
110
100 J
«^
90
j|
80 - '
Jnyiiiin'inlli ^ J i f h Liu w
inniL v iiJ b lif
iiii!fniLnilnnniiprinlif'rrlu(
17
BASIC DATA
JUNE
bed
1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Investment expenditures
I
|i
-•'•' I-
'
61.-Bus. expend, new plant pnd equip., Q (anm rotej bil. dol.
62. Labor 4s* per
unit
of output, mfg. (index: 195^-59=100)
110
105 _
100 -i
95 s
Cost per unit of output
I;
85
68. Labor cost per dol. of real corpl GNP, Q (index:1 1957-5,9=100)
1
I
'
64. Book, value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)
65. took value of mfrs/ inventories, finished goods (bil. doll)
20
15
V—
I
J_
I'
66. Consumer installment debt (bil.
dol.)
40
30
L _.
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)
i
,\
T
il
!
[
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
82.
\
'
Fed. cap payments to public (ann. rate, fail dol
MCD miSwing avg,—6 t|!erm
83.! Fed
MCD moving avg.-6 Iterm
j
84. | Fed. cash surplus or deficit (pnn. rate, bil. <Jol
j 6—terrjri moving avg.)
!
"
95.
Surplus or deficit Fed. incomeJind
acct., QJcurn, rate, bil. dol
90.
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (fail. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6 term) - - —
/, ft
9lHbefense Dept. iblig., tbtal (bi
__
___
.
92. Military contract awards in JJ.L.'.'(fcr
MCD moving avg.-6 termjj
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
85.
Change in money supply (ann. rote, percent,
MCD moving avg.—6 term)
Change in mpney supply and time deposits
(ann. rote, percent. MCD moving avg.—6 term)
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
111. Corporate gross savings, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
ilt2. Change mlinjsiness IfliOTisI (tftttiT=|ote, bil."dot.
MCD moving avg.—5 terAi) i !
- _
j
--.
;! . .
i . „.)*
13. CljgngejA-tonsumer Instil!men!
j
bed
bed JUNE ,966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
114. Treasury bill r;ate {percent)
1151 Treasury bond; yields (percent]
Corporate bond yields (percent)
Municipal bond yields (percent)
118 Mortgage yields (percent)
CHART
CHART
BAS|c
DATA
JUNE 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Foreign trade
86.
Exports, exc, military aid (bil. dot
MCD moving avg.—4 term)
87. General imports (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-4 term)
j
88. |i Merchandise tirade balance (bil. dol
4—term moving avg.)
89, U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)
a. Liquidity balance basis
81. Consumer prices ; (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100.
MCD moving ;avg.-5 term)
96. iMfrs. unfilled
ers, du>. goods indus. (bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.
" "~
"
b. Official settlements
basis
bed
bed
CHART
JUNE 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
production
47. United States (index: 1957-59=100)
123. Canada (index: 1957-59=100)
122. United Kingdom (indJx: 1957*59=100)
.. w^A
121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100)
125. West Germany (index: 19^7-59=100)
126. France (index: J957-59=100)
BASIC DATA
JUNE J966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries,
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs x
6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bit. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1962
Ju(y
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February. . .
March
April.
May
June
40.5
40 3
4.2
4 0
40.6
4.0
40 2
40 4
40 2
3 9
3 8
3 8
40.4
40.3
40.4
40.2
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.7
4.0
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
40.1
40.6
40.6
40.8
40.6
40.7
40.7
3 8
18
18
40 8
4 0
40.6
3.9
40 .'7
4 0
40.9
41.2
4.1
534
532
523
522
529
518
523
507
518
514
533
52A
S??
549
1
1
i
"1
i
1
/
/
i
S
i
/
-i
A
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.5
40.6
41 2
41.2
41
41
41
41
3
0
1
0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
4.1
4.0
4 0
4
4
L
3
0
0
3
9
/ l
4 5
41 0
L 1
41 0
40.9
41 2
41 4
41.4
L ?
41.5
(HI 41. 6
Al
<5
41 5
P41.4
4 5
L 6
5 0
4 9
4.9
4.8
[Hjr5 . 2
p/.7
(NA)
557
553
551
557
565
6/3
2.1
2- 4
1.9
2 0
2 0
19
19
2.1
1.8
1.7
18
1.7
1.8
16
1.7
16
19
1 5
15
16
15
16
16.91
16.59
128
303
127
127
125
133
120
305
300
304
299
310
17.29
16.73
17 33
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3 07
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18 24
18.62
18 11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
116
125
98
122
111
121
118
91
121
92
89
109
284
270
277
265
262
257
260
?//
245
?/Q
262
19 74
19 50
19.26
20 46
19 94
20 02
21 25
1Q 3/
3 62
3 41
3.46
3 61
3.93
3 "92
3 77
19
19
19
20
3 69
7Q
o) ^
248
261
16.55
91
62
45
72
0-57
pi p7
91 13
91 71
937
22 04
opy
ppy
oqi
7; S
01 S
pfl
QQ
91
31
99
9O
3 77
3 7Q
3 88
3 Q9
3 QA
S37
69Q
S/7
1
1 3
l?/
110
117
1 09
140
1 91
11 n
8/
#/
POQ
99
y9
C.//
3
1 9O
91 9
o
4 .pe
1
99 "3Q
563
1
3
1 OK.
206
93 y n
/ ^O
4*
J-&
570
11
I
l
l
•HI 600
1589
•522
P513
11
106
6PR
535
633
5/«
s/l
1 7
3
rl 1
>T|pl 0
(NA)
Q-3
•i nn
LtD74
222
91 Q
n so
[77] -i r-jn
Lttl-L (7
1 86
PI
•il .^1
21
99 1 A
93 £;£
pq o/
HTl T* 9 /
S?Q
1 A
r<4.1b
T*9/
n?y
in
3 80
y 09
y no
y H7
y
/
r\Q
-aer
4. J55
; iA
y Tc
y CO
4*
5o
/
/
ry
ry
ye
^#
tjo
#p
!Hlp4.85
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadju$ted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
24
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(BiLdol.)
11. Newlyapproved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations *
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(BiLdol.)
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
(Mil.dol.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December. .
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
44 61
45.11
39 42
40.23
47 00
51 39
45 78
44 93
43 88
50 81
43 73
45 43
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4 28
3 96
3 94
3 91
4.08
4 17
4 32
4.56
51 07
L 38
/ 1 /
i 11
41.08
*n
March
April
May
Jung
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
42 20
41 89
3.72
3.61
3 56
3.66
3 82
3 99
40.56
42.69
40 96
0*1
1 8 /i
53.48
46 22
47 82
52 62
47.72
51.41
53 75
49 61
58 88
4.36
4.63
4 64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4-92
4 94
53.20
58.12
54.04
64 26
56.13
55.28
55 90
49.60
63.48
60 49
60 33
64.36
4.72
4.67
4.84
4-98
5.02
4.81
5.16
4.90
5.15
5 13
5.05
5.35
60.04
67.48
69.09
5.44
5.49
r5.66
±Dp5.94
(NA)
£71.63
(NA)
2.81
3 35
2.80
3 30
3 72
4 10
1,409
1,531
1 300
1,410
1 63/
1 521
108 7
107.1
109 1
107 2
113 0
112 0
97 7
98 4
98 S
98.5
98 0
98 3
1,285
1,438
1 486
1,652
1 676
1 550
1 574
111
108
112
113
120
119
116
113
121
123
119
123
8
2
9
6
0
3
5
5
0
6
9
7
98 9
100 2
100 5
99 2
99 6
100 0
100 7
101 7
101 4
101 7
101 4
101 8
14 924
15 390
15 563
15 305
15 682
1 5 ^36
15'431
116 8
[3124 6
103 1
102 8
i £ o^n
"i A m fl
1 PI
1 122
I 676
1 706
1 592
1 522
mil 7^1
/
39
4 81
5.00
4.52
4.99
5.79
5.85
(Er6 32
p6.17
-)
70^
1
^71
15 171
15 056
1 S 2/9
14,892
U
U
QSI
9Rci
16 093
15
16
1 *i
15
689
?76
7S9
867
107
121
106
129
96
99
98
85
02
87
62
61
146 46
93 05
9/ 1 ?
88 15
"M *5 0*5
91
144
[H352
94
07
50
86
52
QQ 9?
255 72
87 17
QI AQ
1 1 q oQ
T i n A7
7
1 09 Q
-] c QQO
ID, 77»C
1,506
1,496
1 593
1,475
1,489
1 , 422
1,495
1,480
1 575
113 6
112 9
115 1
111 5
113 4
109.7
109 1
110,8
105 4
103.7
105 3
103 9
104.0
103.6
104.8
106.6
105.8
106 8
16 180
15 917
15 919
15 979
16 074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17 154
107 10
97 92
1 36 19
1,417
1,468
1,465
1,532
1,501
1,539
1,447
1,409
1,436
1 380
1 531
1,735
112.9
108.0
112.0
104 7
109 4
110 6
109 7
107 4
104 1
111 1
113 1
116.9
107.5
107.6
106.1
105 3
105 0
106 8
106 4
106.4
105 3
104 6
105 3
105.9
17,275
17,367
17,112 •
16 504
16,043
16 , 671
16 369
16,957
17 138
16 744
17 418
16 , 999
84.54
107.57
146 29
79 51
139 09
135 66
120 64
128 98
108 56
85 67
66 65
128.06
1,585
1,349
rl,538
ri, 478
pi, 275
111 4
105 1
114 1
r!03 1
p96 3
108.7
IH1109.6
109.2
108.4
(NA)
17 677
SJ17 868
17 305
17,022
(NA)
125
90
118
97
111
126
14
99
59
98
00
49
111 67
94 59
98 73
106.93
92.41
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by [H] for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by [H]. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
-'-Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of rra change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products.u (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations:' First Quarter 1965.)
25
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
15. Number of
16. Corporate
business failures
profits after taxes
with liabilities of x
$100,000 and over
(Number per
week)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
(1957-59=100)
(Cents)
(Percent)
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries
(1941-43=10)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1962
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November ..;..,..
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
38
45
40
46
42
37
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
41
41
38
44
39
3Q
44
/o
31 5
31.8
31 2
32.6
101 0
101.5
100 8
100.8
33.8
36 7
37 n
**•
T7 ^
• .•
i?
T7 ft
/o
101 6
101 9
101 3
101 9
im 7
1 f^jpi rt
1m o
im A
i on rt
i pipi A
T1U1
m .oo
i no A
QC
1 /-io A
y /
-i
* *'
3Q
/ ^
1%
AO
/8
37
36
36
37
QO
11 2
8.1
11 1
8 1
10 8
8.5
11.2
8.6
11.2
8 8
11 3
9 0
11 9
1 pi o o
-LU^}. J5
1 1 c.
44.5
* * *
/ C Q
4?
.y
-i r\e
fTjIv./ c> q
11.7
n
9 .0
11.7
* *:
Q
.. .
8.7
11.7
9.8
13.0
9-3
12.9
9.4
13.0
9.5
13.3
i
105.4
_1 pi/r A
rllo.D
rr7iT>T nA Q
_-i r\c
/
riU:? .0
p!05.9
+6.4
+4 5
+4.7
+5.8
+8 1
77 3Q
+3 3
7Q Q/
8 .y
i n i yo
104.
i
ny u
1U4.V
105.3
T nA n
lUo.O
65 06
65 92
65 67
68 76
70.14
70 11
69 07
70.98
72 85
73 03
72 62
74 17
+5.2
78 80
103.9
104.4
103 ,1^
56 97
58 52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
76 / £ i
i
nq ;}^
lUjj.
103.0
1 n
/q
8 1
102 . 8
/ q A
qq
in
99 7
100 1
100 5
100 8
101.3
102 2
101.7
100.9
32.8
42
/?
/n
42
100 2
100 0
100.7
100.2
100.4
99.9
rrri Q f~.
•ju y.9
[HJP13.4
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
8^.85
85.44
83.96
86.12
86.75
86.83
87.97
89.28
85.04
84.91
86.49
89.38
91.39
92.15
91.73
[n]93.32
92.69
88.88
91.60
86.78
3
86. 57
+4".l
+3.8
+7.5
+8.8
+6.4
...
+7.6
51+10.1
+8.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers arefor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
FHU February 1962.
2
Average for June 15, 16, and 17.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies 1
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1962
+3.9
+2.0
+ 5.6
+ 5.5
+1.2
+5.1
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
44
45
43
46
50
49
58
August
September
October
November
December
52
52
55
52
51
44
44
48
48
48
48
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8-
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2,7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+ 5.1
+2 3
+3 7
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
+14.6
-1.9
-0 5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
+0.40
+0.57
+0 16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
98.5
98.5
98 9
102.4
100.9
101; 4
102.5
105.7
+11.2
+5 0
+1
+0
+?
+5
60
61
65
£G
6*5
68
67
6^
62
62
63
61
79
+0 32
. n &i
AA
4-O
70
+0 84
. n ^n
+0 58
A-3
July
-2.4
72
70
66
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January.
February
March
April
May.
June
+13 8
+8 7
+Q /
+6 1
+11 6
+8.1
+3 4
+8 2
+10 2
[ED+16 2
r+13 1
+13.3
+8.4
p+9.7
(NA)
0
4
^
3
+1 S
-0
+0
+1
+3
5
7
4
1
4-0 Q
+1 0
+2 0
^7
(H36l
60
58
^7
60
<S8
/ *>
en
/s
+0 9
+1 2
r+0 8
yA
rri-3 /
cr-i
(NA)
/A
£-3
CO
7D
66
. n TO
6/
4-0
39
Ao
4-1
9/
An
, -|
A?
AA
i pi rrrt
63
79
4-1
11 A Q
T -i e q
A.
m
lie o
mo
-i 1 c
r\
n -| e
c
5
m-t
11>.
PlQ
-4-1
97
#C
4-1
"31
82
7^
116 7
od
7/
[HlsA
7
113 9
/ /
A9
68
67
68
/• f.
69
E 70
11 n A
m
fu"l TM-1
T-4-1
A^
yO
p+1 02
-\ on ^
1 9? Q
FH! 1 oq c
1 91 9
^
1-Cl.
a
118 3
ns.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series (<numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available.
1
[E = December 1961.
Average for June H, 15, and 16.
2
27
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
Februsry
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
may.
June
:::::::
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.....;::::;..
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, 3
June
55,637
55 703
55 796
55,830
55 B79
55 880
55 897
56 027
56 14.2
56 353
56,488
56 562
56,670
56,727
56 856
57 008
57 038
57 205
42. Total non43- Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey
(Thous.)
62 547
63 018
63 l6l
63 no
6? Q~l Q
63 33/
63
63
63
6 "3
086
?1 Q
/6P
71 6
63 57Q
63 7Q1
63 Q7/
64 089
5
7
6
/,
8
5
5 7
5 Q
5 '7
5 7
5./
0
5 Q
5 7
5 7
5 5
5 • c2
6/ 306
6/ ? / 5
6y 3/7
6/ 3QQ
5 6
c2 . o
d
5 c
(Percent)
T 6
3 .nf
Q
C
-5. ;>
•3
e
Q
C
j?. !?
3 .C!?
0
0
J. /
0
17
^. /
7 b
A
>.
3 .4j
^ 4
y
j>.
•3 Q
Jj. ^
Q
9
Q
1
3 ,piU
3-1
.1
3
3
T
.,?
T
O
57 606
57, 694
57 781
57 864
6/ 6?1
65 D8/
c L.
D .O
5
P . )4
3 .-11
65 208
65 765
65 77 y
5 !
o ,Qy
<c
58 033
65 y 79
58 190
58,301
58 499
58 370
58 879
5Q 163
65
59 ?Q5
66 71 Q
4-0
2.7
59 581
59,814
59 846
60 032
60,290
60 501
60 6?1
60,756
61 001
61,472
61 884
66 718
p.
5 .u
2 .D
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2 /
.6
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
57 25?
f^O ~\ } 3
A o ep)-j
T*AO
O1 O
ro*;, yis
r6? Q33
rum63 pjQQ
1
5
•4
5 1
y
5•4
581
5 PI
65 682
5 1
c -i
2 . -L
65
65
66
66
66
66
66
67
6Q7
7 "3D
133
/?6
8Q5
Q1 Q
Q/7
/ 3/
A7 Q7Q
67 81 5
67 87Q
68 m O
68 641
5 . /£
0
/
Q
Pi
4. 7
5 •U
y
S
1
rj
i
c*
4- o
y t
4.0
/
*7
4.
/
1 ^
4.
;?
1
c
4->>
y /
4.
4
4. ...
/ o
4
-2
4.1
69,286
4.0
3.7
09,155
2•V
Q
2 .rt0
2 /
. U
2rt
. 0
2 r - i
.7
68 Q^
69,079
69,072
iUij
~u~ ov
AQ ,*3n
?1""?/
AQ ice
46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
unemployment 1
rate, in newspapers
State programs
(Percent)
(Percent)
5
5
5
5
5
5
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
y
-i
3.8
r—-10 r;
[Hj.3.7
4.0
o A
2 .8rt
3.0
2.4
o /:
2 ,D
/:
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
\H\1.B
(1957-59-100)
i f\
4. ^
/ >
4.4
i i
4- 4
/
c
T1
i0
n
1
-) pijj
lUo
-i f\rj
107
-I pir;
1U /
4. 5
/ A
4.6
107
y ""7
4.
f
e!07
>
rt
47. Index of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
119.0
119 .0
119.7
-1 -1 f\
-1
119. 1
119.8
119.4
107
111
112
118
119.8
120.6
121'. 9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125-6
IOC /
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
3.8
3.6
/
3 .6X
3 .6
3-5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
134
137
127.9
128.4
129.3
130.8
131.8
132.0
133.3
134.0
134.0
131.6
135.4
138.1
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
137
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186
138.6
139.2
140.7
140.9
141.6
142.7
144.2
144.5
143.5
145.1
146.4
148.7
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.1
LKI2.1
184
191
IS201
189
185
150.2
r!51.9
r!53.3
rl53.6
EH]pl54.8
4. o
I /
4.0
4.4
4.2
1 Q
4.
2
< i
4.1
/ ~)
4.1
/ -i
4. 1
4.0
i PI
4.U
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.0
3 .0
rj
X
e!07
e!09
elOS
109
1 f\c
105
104
i no
109
10nc:
1
p
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40t 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; 4< a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
28
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
50. Gross
national product
in 1958 dollars
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits,
(series 49 minus all SMSA's except New York
series 21)
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
July
c o o f.
August
September
October
November
December
564 4
559 2
538.5
572.0
565.6
54.1.2
577.0
572.5
544 9
583 1
578 4
553 7
593 1
587.3
560.0
603 6
595.5
567.1
614.0
610.7
575.9
624.2
620.1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2,311.3
2 268 8
2 ',236 !'?
2 , 340 . 7
2,351.5
2,324.9
443 4
/// 6
2,416.2
2,345,9
2,357.2
2 , 472 . 5
2 419 2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2 , 463 . 1
2,559.0
2,605 5
2,527.4
2,610.2
456.6
454.9
456.7
457.2
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59=100)
118 8
118 7
119.5
118.9
119.7
119.7
19,597
19,654
19,880
19,901
20,062
20,204
463.1
464.8
467.1
469.3
473 2
474.7
478.9
120.1
120 0
120.8
120 7
122 0
123 0
123.3
123 4
124.4
125 1
125.7
127.1
20 , 319
20 , 226
20 , 374
20,292
20 178
20,517
20,634
20 581
20,489
100 5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
?h 77A
100.9
20 727
20,952
100.9
101.1
2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597 3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
481.2
483.2
484 5
437.7
491.2
492.8
496.1
499.5
501.7
502.8
506,6
512.0
126.5
127 9
128 3
129.5
130.3
130.9
131.5
132.6
133.8
1-32.6
135.1
137.3
21 021
21 408
?n ^n^
21 , 442
21 , 701
21 797
21,862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21 690
22 766
101 1
101 2
101 2
101.2
101.1
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101 6
101,7
2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3 , 249 . 6
515.4
515.2
517.8
520.5
525.0
528.5
530.4
532.1
545.4
541.3
546.1
550.9
137.3
138.4
139.7
138.8
139 6
140.4
141.4
142 1
142.2
143 6
145 6
146.9
22,936
23,262
22,856
22,849
23 317
23,322
23,668
23 585
23,753
24,194
24 , 647
24,816
101.7
101.9
102.1
102 2
102 3
102.6
102.6
102 8
102.9
102 8
103 2
103 1
552.5
557.4
561 4
563.1
[H}p565.5
147.9
149.9
151 2
rl51.6
[Bjpl52.4
447.0
447.9
450.4
452.6
100 9
100 8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100,7
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
•
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
582. 6
634.8
631.0
584.7
641.1
633.6
597.7
657.6
648.8
603.5
668.8
662.4
613.0
681.5
673.9
624.4
697.2
687.1
[S633.6
HD713.9
[H]705.8
1965
January
February ......
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
3,198.1
3,263.9
EH]3, 397.1
3,390.1
p3, 348.1
460 o
25,023
25,263
[£125,536
r25,020
p24,424
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.4
101 o
103.4
103.8
104 o
104.3
[H;pl04.8
X
104.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (ED for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by {H], Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available.
'•Week ended June 14.
29
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59-100)
68. Index of labor
64. Book value of
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59-100)
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Percent)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
38.35
37.95
100.7
100.9
100.4
100.6
100.3
100.7
103.3
103.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,655
51,207
51,631
52,194
52,648
53,202
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
62.4
62.9
21.2
21.4
63 2
63.4
63.7
64 0
64 3
64 6
65 4
65.8
66 3
66 6
67 2
68 0
22.4
22.4
22.5
22.3
22 4
22 3
22 5
22 5
22 6
22 7
4.99
5.02
1963
January
February
March .'
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
36.95
38.05
40.00
41.20
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
42.55
43.50
45.65
47.75
100.6
100.2
99.7
99.5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
99.3
99.1
99.7
99.3
99.3
100.0
99.7
99.5
100.3
SllOl.2
99.5
98.9
104.0
104.2
103.9
104.7
104.2
104.6
105.1
106.3
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.2
53,689
54,259
54,865
55,333
55,907
56,375
56,911
57,410
58,004
58,475
58,836
59,454
5.00
5.61
5.01
5.00
4.99
4.99
4.98
5.00
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
49.00
50.35
52.75
55.35
98.7
99.1
98.7
99.4
99 3
99.0
98 1
98.9
99.5
98 6
98 6
97 8
105.1
106 1
106.2
106 4
?? Q
OQ 1
60,069
60,666
61,308
62,053
62,709
63,304
64,028
64,684
65,370
65,990
66,689
67 323
4.97
4 99
5 00
...
c
07
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
[EJ 58. 00
X
a59 . 60
a6l.65
98.9
r99.3
r99.0
r99.9
P99.9
[R]pl07 6
•68 6
69 0
r6>9 6
fu]r)7r) 1
(TJA>
oq £
?? A
00
fim-nP^
0
&
(MA1)
67 920
68,458
69,107
[n]69,638
(NA)
...
fnle
cc
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p'r, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"-, not available.
X
3d quarter 1966.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The anticipated figure for the 4th quarter is 63.55.
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
Marrh
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
0
7
9
8
7
0
111.3
108.6
109.3
107.6
110.6
108.9
-1.7
+0.9
-3.6
-6.2
-8.1
-6.1
112.4
109.6
116.5
113.8
116.7
115.7
120.2
121.6
119.7
122.1
119.3
117.2
107.3
108.5
109.1
108.1
114.1
112.8
113.7
117.3
113.4
115.3
115.4
118.7
-5.1
-1.1
-7.4
126.5
119 7
121 0
122. A
118.9
116.5
122.2
121.0
117.3
118.4
112.9
126.6
115.1
119.6
116 3
121.1
108.4
113.5
114.7
112.4
113.7
115.7
115.4
115.1
122.0
122.2
117.8
125.6
129.3
133.9
119.5
128.8
136.9
124.3
146 3
126 6
110.9
117.6
128.2
144.4
118.1
129.3
113
107
112
113
118
115
-2.6
-3.2
-2.5
-5 7
-2.6
-2.9
-6.5
+1.8
-4.3
-6.3
-6.8
+0.6
-3 9
+1 2
-11.4
-0.1
-4.7
-1.3
-10.5
-3.0
-7.5
-8.6
-3.6
-2.7
+2.5
-2 6
-7.6
-3.6
-1.1
-11.5
(Mil. dol.)
1,657
4,517
1,395
1,040
1,675
1 , 787
1,205
4,385
3,892
4,535
4,920
4,140
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079
4,351
2 149
? 689
1,094
1,273
+1.5
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
1,075
1 843
1 ?37
5 317
/ 1 33
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
i ,UU!?
nn^
1
4,278
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,915
1
<SQ#
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1965
Janusry
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
146.9
142.5
153.5
P138.9
P153.4
116.1
125.0
126.6 113.6
129 6
i pc n
-11.1
-4.6
+10.4
+18.8
-11.2
-4.6
-3.4
-3.8
1A n
1 A
PA i
Q c
1 "33 A
1} Q
--1-4. 7
pl62 5
p!44 2
p+23.6
D-9 2
-| Q O
, Q
J5
...
von
1 I^GI
J-,
335
1 / / I
1 , 444
I ,4U2
/m
1 *o4
oc; /
-L,
OiJ
I, Ti<iO
0 Q
-10.3
-10.7
A
120 6
+3 6
...
1*7/1
, /41
I»
1
&
r+0.2
OQO
/J2
1,733
1, 212
I, rtfjo
00^
1,521
1 , 420
1,947
OQQ
2 ,^77
flttA 'l
(MA)
q
ftqn
J,ojy
/
in /
4,o24
4,593
4,630
4, 520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896
5 / /• fi
,669
5,100
5,179
5,879
1>>
6 j444
/tT
» \
(NA)
2,712
2,596
2,357
3,466
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves*
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
mil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
110. Total private
borrowing
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1962
July
2 07
+//0
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, **
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February. . ^
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
. *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
1.94
+439
1 88
2 09
1 70
2 53
+ "376
+268
+/ Q9
+/ Oft
+/ Q9
? 8Q
2 09
2 42
1 97
2. -40
+ 375
4-/
+301
+/ Q9
+1 56
1.90
2.4.0
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
2 67
2.4.0
2.18
2 37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1 86
1 98
2 41
1 79
+419
W73
+269
+ 31 3
+247
-0 84
-0 84
1 68
HA
+91
+94
+33
+209
+4
+3
+3
+6
+2
+2
+5
+7
-0
+1 75
+ 3 Q6
-i-89
+99
+1 56
+2 40
+138
+l6l
+133
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+ftQ
08
?/
96
36
4.0
40
52
08 "
84
+3 1 9
0 00
+7 ftn
+8 59
+ 3 ft/1
4-ft /n
+106
a. /
1.87
+168
H
2 37
, -] nA
4-9 9ft
2.44
-i-^A
+J5O
9 9ft
_u / ->o
e:A
+4.
2 46
3 24
2 46
Q/
rj C
~ f?
~i r\c
-iio
-i
rtpi
2.58
2.62
-1 Qo
2 81
3 4-5
-1 Q »
3.28
2.57
2.53
3 4-0
3.04
r3.38
r3 29
r>2 76
-4-9 9ft
rto
-QJ
-2
-44
-107
O / £.
-246
r-268
p-355
K.fi.
4-6 nn
ft 1 A
_L-| q y44
;
-rij.
4_C
--U4
-i 1 1
-144
1 /A
CA
I A
4-1
/" y
+1. 44
4-1 1 76
4-Q
/ft
if)
170
4-1 9
^A
j rj
Qpi
9
ftft
4-ft
^O
4-13
/ /
n i l 9ft
+6 04
+4 08
+/ ^6
+? 66
/5 3/n
/• i 7Qp
...
4-Q /8
+ft y n
+10 80
4-ft
7A
4-ft
76
, 17
Op|
/ q ^cA
/ 3 j OO
936
4J
/ 3 i ny
...
/ o A6ft
1
.. .
.nn
88
48
76
n/
56
4-ft
1 A
4-5
ftft
Q9
4-Q 79
4-ft 7A
4-Q 1 9
+V.l<i
, Q
/ Q
4-ft
ftft
+7. 4o
4-ft ^Q
j_ft n /
4-7/.V4
QO
+
nn
O .00
i t Q An
i Q
/ c / nO
4P>4<o
4-9 n/
4-9 nft
4-; 66
r53 ft7A
( C on o
45,
J12
i9
c . AA
OO
+
. e 7ft
QQA
4/ rj/ > «c^D
49,324
*••
••*
49 1 872
...
i -1
Ay
iifj
en A7O
•••
50, 584
CQ
/nft
49 , 884
63
91 6
P9,lo5
cc
-i
rtrt
.. .
A3 A / n
• **
54,660
•*•
An
QQA
ou, ooO
55,440
70, 208
56,016
,-i o Q^
_u7
ftn
i-l Q
T/l
+12. J?O
+7. 68
, -|
C/
-j-7 cA
+ f . 9D
i 1 / /: *
+14.O4
-it T nsJ
p-l.Oo
T^
+<:. ^9
4-1 7y
4-9
4-1
Q7/
+1 .7
OO
+7. f-c
-L.1
n . Qn
+1U
oO
j-l
O ^4
Oy
+1^.
ftC,
i Q yfi
51 040
i -i pi i /
+±U .44
_uA
QA
+0.70
i Q r\pi
+7. UU
/ 9
< o or4c
/d
4J,
***
+/ I /
+c oA
U
4-1
4-T
c-i A
c-i
+7 08
4-Q
+8
+6
+8
+11
+A
4-9 Oft
4-n Q^
-ui . y4.2
^
+JL
+7 6ft
+6 24
+ 3 85
. p fto
4-9 ft9
p72 , 436
p57,372
<7Q
+1. 7?
, -3
y rt
+J.4o
4-1 J O
+1 . 4<
-j_"a 1*7
+J.17
Uo
^
.25
,-3 rtQ
+3.o9
_L/
QT
+4.J1
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+8.62
+12.35
+13.14
r+12.47
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10.00
+5.53
+4.00
+5.33
+0.32
+10.84
+14.23
+7.21
+8.87
+6.60
P+10.93
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect seriesI( relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised* "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
32
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
113. Net change in
consumer installment debt
114- Treasury bill
rate*
115. Treasury bond
yields*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
86. Exports excluding. military aid
shipments, total
116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
1962
+4 49
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
•••
2 9Z
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82
2 84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86
+5.82
+5.94
+ 5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.91
+6 62
+5.09
+6 76
2.91
2.92
2 90
2.91
2 92
3 00
3.14
3 32
3.38
3 45
4 02
3 98
3 94
3 89
3 87
3.87
3
3
3
3
89
92
93
97
3
4
4
3
97
00
01
99
/ /i
/ 3Q
3 P#
3 ?3
c.
cc>
*i
^7
3 11
5 56
5 56
28
27
23
28
3 07
4 22
3 10
/ ?5
315
3 05
3 10
311
3 PI
4
4
L
4
4 26
/
y
/",
A
/
35
35
3?
3A
33
3 02
3 O/
5 5/
5 53
5 5P
5 /A
5
P .y 47f
5 /A
5 . y4Pc
c. / c
1
7/Q • o
ft
l, */4V
i 7m i
i jVlU
QI n .?jj
1
i 5/ y 7
1 700 7
T
Sy q
q
9S7 3
P 1 PP 1
1
QAQ .1
1
l,VD7
T q-i e c
i SQA A
1 791 1
3 22
C.
1C
i #yi i
313
e y e
i 9n^ ^
1 985 5
1 ocy o
4 04
4 40
3 ?n
5
3 PO
y c
5 • 4P
3
5y c
/5
+5 A 5
3 5?
4 07
y 11
+6 65
3 52
/ "l/
/ 3A
y JP
y /q
+ 6 &/
-i-A ay
3 53
3 53
/ 1 5
/ /Q
3 29
y
T y
y Jio
QCJ
4.
-1 <>
y
•3 -i ;
^ .14
3Qrt
. <0
1- c
5 • 4!?
3 28
3 20
3 pn
5 /6
e y e
an^A ^
31^
5 /A
2 11 8 A
Q ,noo
<
UV? .ft o
p pAi n
c^ y
2 ,1lpo.4
,rj
917
Q
ce
4
4.20
4.45
4 49
4 16
4 48
A 1 3
4 13
/ /Q
/ /3
A 1 /
4.16
/ r3
4 49
4 16
4 12
4 14
+7 13
+5 65
+4.33
+7 42
3.48
3-4.8
3 48
3 48
3 51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86
+7 32
+7 16
+7.70
+8 94
+7 87
+7 14
+8.69
+7 87
+8 23
+7.44
+8.39
+7.61
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36
4 14
4 16
4.15
4 15
4 14
4 14
4.15
4.19
4 25
4.28
4 34
4.43
+7 16
+6.46
+7 79
+6 37
(NAl
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.61
4.64
A A3
4.61
4 63
/ 55
+5.62
+6 89
+5 62
+6 43
+ 5 Q9
ye.
/ 57
"3Pl
3 97
. 4P
1
Q^c. rt
-L j VPP
.O
c
yc
2 1 n^ y
c
/ c
p mo A
2,057.8
2,075.2
2 061 0
ny 7 .^j)
2 ,U4/
P. 4P
5.45
^ yc
3 1Q
e
5 /6
L A9
3 23
3 ?^
y /I
4 47
3 18
6 /5
2PfiA P
/ /7
313
2 . 4P
e y e
2
e y e
y oA 1
/ //
3 06
e y e
1 91 y A
A //
3 09
e y e
1 £,Qft fl
4 49
4 48
4 52
3 18
e y e
o 7ey
31^
317
e y e
/ 57
A 71
3
3
3
3
2 T7Q A
2 oAn o
on .<i
o
2 , 04J)U
QCC C
2 j *iPP
. P
4 69
3/0
L 7*5
3 /^
3 S/
5
C*1
2
y rift
6
AP
P
365 ft
4 92
3 S?
e
70
5.07
3 64
3 72
3 ^A
f Mfl \
6 00
?
p
2
?
3 AC;
A O^
TO
D
4 57
4 66
4 90
5 28
5 ?/
5 37
P/
P7
?/
3*5
5
5
1C
y y
e yy
y c
5
c y ^,
P .4o
c yQ
/WA\
c>
2 - 3 QO
Q
^^^. V
y i1
2 , qo
^-c4.
p ^y i A
pyo
3?y
5Q/
331
9
A
ft
y
p
CNA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; *'p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
33
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
87. General im- 88. Merchandise 89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of conports, total
struction conments (-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices
trade balance
tracts, value
(series 86 minus
series 87)
b. Official
a. Liquidity
balance basis
settlements
basis
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59100)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bit. dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing 1
(Bit. dol.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February. . ,
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,314.6
1,424.9
1,376.5
+403.2
+357.5
+438.9
+230.1
+303.8
+466.8
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,4^4.7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8
-112,6
+611.7
+484.4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499.7
+490.6
+627.6
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514.0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,663.1
1,763.6
1,806.8
2,005.9
1,903.3
2,034.6
+21.9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471 . 2
+400.7
+592.4
+569.3
+517.3
+335.7
+504.9
+321.2
1,935.5
1,992.9
2,072.7
2,138.2
+313.1
+341.9
+521.7
+193.0
(NA)
(NA)
-433
-935
-711
-1,057
r-1,218
-1,081
r-1,114
-871
r-200
0
r-138
r-248
r-552
r-617
r-1,381
r-697
r+226
r-534
r-350
r-563
-92
r-144
r-326
r-231
r-845
r-618
r+238
r+236
r-1,158
r-245
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
117
118
113
117
123
138
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
62.53
111.0
111.7
112.1
112.6
(NA)
152
157
158
161
(NA)
63.80
65.11
r66.76
r68.!8
p69.20
8.26
sisi
8^88
9.38
10.05
11.02
12!6s
13.23
14^54
14.97
15^66
17.06
18.17
r!9.48
p2o!32
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised' "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICB publication Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
' ~ ~ ~
~~~
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
34
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
47. United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
1962
July
August
September
October . .
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January.
February
March
April
May...
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
120
118
119
119
119
120
119
120
120
121
122
123
120
121
122
122
123
119
119
120
119
124,
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
123
128
128
131
132
132
133
134
134
132
135
138
133
134
1 33
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
139
139
141
141
142
143
144
144
144
145
146
149
142
141
143
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
151
153
129'
150
152
353
rl~54
p!55
113
114
115
110
113
110
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
121
123
125
126
128
131
153
r!54
p!56
(NA)
120
121
121
123
12?
"I?"}
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
130
129
1?8
r!28
129
128
r!30
129
r!28
r!30
r!30
.
:
r!31 -
131
130
p!31
(NA)
125
126
127
127
128
127
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
1 3S
136
136
139
"1 39
130
131
132
132
133
132
125
125
126
128
128
126
129
128
132
133
1 33
139
134
136
136
i ift
140
127
125
116
129
1 39
1/2
1 //
151
149
1 33
13A
129
1 29
136
1 37
136
138
1 SO
180
181
153
158
160
178
190
191
203
pnp
171
?D7
140
1 39
1 3Q
01 /
170
21 7
172
169
219
1 7"3
*c<c4
226
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
140
1/1
132
132
141
142
142'
138
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
14C
~KA
1 -317
T tf
1 / C.
1 cc
-iij?y
qn
1/3
1/s
146
146
1/9
1c\/
1 cc
-| / r\
l-?7
1 TC
175
1 c. >
1/ O
-l r?/:
146
148
1 c-i
1/9
I^A
r!49
r!49
i sn
150
p!50
(NA)
-| c.c.
1 ^/
163
-] en
1 £Q
IT'S
pi 60
(NA)
141
1 Ad
Io9
1 AA
i AQ
IbV
1 3Q
1 -DQ
I fb
-| ryrt
17o
14*-
•\ r»/T
r!7o
1 r-i-0
I/O
-1-4-3
"1 / A
i /A
148
T*~l / A
1 /Q
X4V
-i en
-L2U
_-i cr\
pi 50
184
184
173
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
1
//
144
1} 1
144
179
1 71
1 / C.
1 x>~\
179
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
140
1 / c.
179
~\ 7Q/y
i
_1 rt i
-1 00
J.0^
r»T ^^
ooy
no/
228
233
232
232
239
241
237
2/,2
O / "3
243
237
242
240
234
243
241
238
243
240
243
O 1i
<44
nr~£-
25°
1 ft/
—oqo
plop
t}c
— oc/
p^?4
^MA \
^WA;
^WA^
^JNAJ
_.->
(NA^
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; i(e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—7 7 industries
Profits—700 companies
Sfocfc prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Car/oad/ngs—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANCE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
OCCf
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
Feb.
1966
Mar.
1966
Apr.
1966
May
1966
July
1953
Nov.
1948
July
1957
May
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
6
I
3
2
1
1
4
12
12
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
6
6
24
50
24
50
4
"i
i
4
6
6
**i
24
25
16
19
15
9
1
5
1
2
"4
2
5
1
3
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
'l
2
1
X
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
....
1
1
9
3
8
3
2
6
11
82
11
73
11
55
l
10
11
91
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1957
1
1
1
3
4
3
1
3
2
3
3
3
1
4
2
3
2
i
11
0
11
27
11
27
11
36
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
1
2
Jan.
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
1953
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
4
4
13
2
**2
2 months
1
^0
5
1
2
2
5
1
2
1
'*4
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
21
2
21
5
13
2
"i
2
1
2
3
9
1
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
**5
2
3
24
0
24
0
*20
15
2
21
33
18
"i
2
1
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
.
2
2
1
"i
5 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
1
1
"i
....
1
2
6
. .
11
55
"5
4
3
3
2
**4
5
11
36
11
18
11
45
1
1
2
"i
"i
1
4
2
1
3
5
1
3
6
"4
4
"i
11
45
11
55
11
36
11
27
3
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leadin'g indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
*4 series were not available.
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
38
bed
JUNE
1966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
CHART
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
Dl.j Avg. workweek^ prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 Indus.
iD6. New orders, dur. goods Indus.-36 indus.
D11. Newly approved capital appropriationsL
17 indus., H U e B - | j - (~~3-QjSpon, !•—-1-Q span)
D34; Profits, FNCB of NY, percent j-eporting
higher profitsJ7QQ cos. (1 -Q .{span)
Stock prices, 5QO common stoc'ks-80 indus.
j
023.J Industrial materials prices-13 Indus, mils.
1
I
Imtial clams, S t a e unernj)! insur.-47 areas (
--4 -HIP
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE
1966
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
D4l. Employees iri nonagr. establishments+30 indus
n 100
A
D58, Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
^rrto. spani ——
]-mo. span —j
bed
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
P35. Net sales, all mfrs,800 cos.
|
(4-p span)J
-J. L_4—U
UJO. wew order s, dur. goods mfrs.-400
-—WXTspan
|>48. CaHoading^-19 mfrd.
( 4 0 span!
j
n,
-H— H"i
D48. Change in total carloadings
r^
*.;
"^^"'"TTI TP
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35.D36 (Apr. 1966)
D48 (Mar. 1966)
OBI (May 1966)
iilllllll]
Actual
IstQ 1965-lst Q 1966
2nd Q1964-2ndQ 1965
4th Q 1965- IstQ 1966
Anticipated
3 r d Q 1965-3rdQ 1966
2nd Q 1965-2nd Q 1966
2nd Q1966-3rdQ 1966
lAdiiJyyyyy
iMijjLyjyyyiijyLn
flSlfi^
H©^i
41
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries) 1
Year and month
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December v. ......
1964
January
February .
...
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19-0
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
97.6
85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6'
95.2
59.5
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
6S.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
77.8
75.0 •
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
81.9
r86.1
r84.7
57.1
61.9
59.5
19.0
78.6
23.8
52.4
50.0
38.1
71.4
81.0
59.5
76.2
81.0
59.5
59.5
33.3
54.8
71.4
69.0
78.6
95.2
r90.5
85.7
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44-4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
76.4
47.6
71.4
21.4
r45.2
P54.8
P83.3
30.6
50.0
r84.7
43.1
P45.8
P72.2
76
53
*59
*74
47
53
*59
*53
*53
'65
*65
*76
53
76
*56
71
*53
44
32
59
76
65
71
'76
*53
r65
r59
p82
P 59
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tabte 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See MICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.)
42
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
D19- Index of stock prices, 500l common
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April.
May
June
July
August ..........
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
48
*56
50
59
'56
*55
57
'60
57
'%
55
*59
55
*60
57
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4
1.2
.3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
•44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
67.5
70.1
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5 '
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
53.8
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
95.7
74.0
48.7
14.3
63.6
3.9
51.9
61.5
76.9
46.2
30.8
42.3
2
42J
53.8
53-. 8
38.3
44.7
83.0
53.2
45.7
91.5
2
NOTE; Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
1(
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963;
on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for June 14, 15, and 16.
on 79
43
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D4L Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
1-month span
9-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
August
September
October
November ........
December
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
51.7
45.0
41.7
;
35.0
43.3
50.0
52,1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80,0
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November . .
December
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73-3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
75.0
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9
79.2
100,0
85,4
83.3
83.3
83.3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54.3
78.3
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
75.0
75.0
81.7
60.0
60.0
80.0
85.0
56.7
63.3
85.0
91.7
81.7
83.3
76.7
80.0
78.3
76.7
76.7
85.0
91.7
91.7
86.7
95.0
93.3
66.7
66,7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
52.1
75.0
83.3
91.7
83.3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
100.0
63.0
69.6
30.4
54.3
87.0
43.5
80.4
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
37.0
80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
95.7
r91.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60.9
71.7
73.9
87.0
89.1
78.3
78.3
r9l.7
r73.3
P71.7
r95.0
P91.7
70.8
r79.2
r83.3
r62.5
p62.5
95.8
P95.8
71.7
69.6
r60.9
r32.6
P39.1
P76.1
63.0
*0./
71.7
r73.9
P67.4
r89.1
P95.7
1962
July
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
,
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
66.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
11
The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
44
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35- Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36- New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48- Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
I y
June
72
'74
71
'70
42.1
68^4
-67
74
*82
"•76
'76
63.2
63 .'2
+29
*76
*80
77
'76
73.7
78.*9
+39
74
'so
*76
*76
57.9
68^4
+44
82
'84
*82
"so
78.9
78.9
r+4
'S4
85
*82
'84
68.4
73.7
r-53
*83
'87
*84
*84
84.2
68^4
+11
82
*86
'si
*84
73.*7
94^7
+41
*83
*87
*84
'84
52*.6
89 .'5
r+47
'34
*88
'84
*85
52.*6
89."5
r+47
90
*88
90
*84
(NA)
84.*2
+23
'&&
*88
*88
*84
84.'2
+22
88
90
*89
*87
73.7
+28
91
"96
89^5
+15
91
*89
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
65.6
65.6
46.9
68^8
40.6
50.0
65^6
75.0
75.0
71.9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62." 5
50.'6
84.4
75.0
96 .*9
68.* 8
56.2
65.6
75.0
68*&
87!5
65!6
81 .'2
84.*4
81.2
62.5
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
71." 9
1
71.Q
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
I
3d quarter 1966.
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar!
Apr.
MayP
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
41.0
41.1
41.0
41.0
41.0
41.5
41.6
41.5
41.5
41.4
41.2
40.9
41.4
41.3
43.7
41.7
41.7
41.0
41.6
41.9
42.1
42.1
41.8
39.9
41.4
41.6
42.1
42.0
42.7
40.5
41.3
41.7
42.4
41.8
42.1
40.7
41.3
41.8
42.1
41.7
42.4
41.5
41.7
42.7
41.9
42.6
42.3
41.1
42.4
42.0
42.6
41.9
41.1
42.0
42.7
41.9
42.5
r42.3
r41.2
r41.6
r42.0
r41.9
42.4
42.2
41.4
42.1
41.8
42.0
42.4
42.3
40.5
42.7
40.5
39.5
43.0
41.1
43.0
41.6
39.8
43.0
41.0
42.9
41.4
39.6
42.9
40.6
42.3
41.3
39.7
42.7
40.8
42.2
41.3
40.0
43.9
41.5
43.5
42.2
40.0
44.0
41.6
43.4
42.5
40.3
43.9
41.4
42.9
42.5
40.3
43.7
r41.4
r43.4
r42.2
r40.0
43.8
41.0
36.7
41.5
36.0
42.7
41.0
37.3
41.5
36.4
43.1
41.0
37.2
41.4
36.5
43.0
41.4
38.1
41.4
36.3
42.9
41.1
37.4
41.8
36.2
42.9
41.2
39.1
42.4
36.3
43.2
41.6
41.4
42.5
36.6
43.5
41.1
39.3
42.4
36.5
43.5
41.1
r39.0
r41.9
r36.5
43.7
40.9
38.1
42.2
36.6
43.8
38.5
42.2
42.4
41.1
38.3
38.5
42.0
42.2
41.7
38.4
38.5
41.7
41.9
41.8
37.8
38.6
41.6
42.1
41.8
37.9
38.6
41.8
42.7
41.9
37.9
38.5
42.0
42.0
42.4
38.2
38.7
42.2
42.8
42.3
38.9
38.7
42.1
42.5
42.2
38.5
r38.7
r42.2
42.6
r42.0
r39.1
38.8
42.0
42.1
42.2
38.9
41.7
a. 2
^2.5
42.6
40.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
{36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
22,043 20,992
Primary metals
3,456
3,286
Blast furnaces, steel mills
1,876
1,632
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
2,098
2,027
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
3,107
3,108
Steam engines and turbines*
\
156 142
Internal combustion engines .*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
601
581
Metalworking machinery *
222
208
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
258
285
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
preliminary, r^revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
46
21,310
22,195
21,509
23,578
23,741
24,888
r24,l64 p24,105
3,454
1,816
3,493
1,851
3,119
1,465
3,603
1,776
3,994
2,141
4,057
2,104
r3,883 p4,24Q
(NA)
p2,041
2,042
2,058
1,974
2,177
2,247
2,411
P2,195
3,189
3,140
3,318
3,427
3,317
3,529
P 3,567
(NA)
226
149
283
224
223
230
p334
(NA)
560
204
603
242
596
309
638
231
617
272
689
301
P6l8
p311
(NA)
(NA)
230
248
250
260
246
254
P307
(NA)
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
(NA)
NA=Not available.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
5p
CD* "o
o ^ r o
CD 4S
n. TO
, 5 - o o o z
c p - 7 > L j 0_ S < c s
00
3
_!_
-3
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and'accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated meta! products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Q_
QJ
O
>
O
S
O
—i
U_
S
60
48
71
21
45
+
+
-*i-
•^
<t
co
0
50
38
71
81
+
+
O -
-
-
4
4-
-
O
-
-
4
O
-
-
4
4
+
<_>
CD
-
-
4
+
O
-
+
^TO
c *
(3
<U
-
-
O
f c t g l l - f i f l J t - 1
O
CD
<C
^
55
60
33
4-
+
-
4
-
O
4
-
+
-
-
- -
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
4
- O
O
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
O
-
-
+
+
-
+
--
O
+
+
O O
+
+
O -
4-
—
+
+
—
+
O
—
—
—
4
-
—
O
4
-
4
-
O
+
4
-
-
O
-
+
0
0
O
—
+
+
—
+
OO
4-
—
+
O
O
4-
—
+
4
4
- 0
_
4
O
—
—
+
4
+
_
O
4-
4-
o
42
61
61
56
—
_
3
TO
"3
^
69
79
95
90
+
+
+
4
<f.
86
83
-
+
-
O
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
4
-
-
+
-
+
4 - 4 -
4
O
-
+
+
-
-
0
+
+
+
4
+
-
4
4-
-
4
+
-
4
+
-
+
4-
O
-
O
+
+
+
+
4-
+
44-
-
+
--
+
-
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
4-
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
-
0
+
4-
+
+
+
O—
—
+
0 4 -
4-
.
-
-
+
+
71
4 - 4 -
-
-
O
-
-
55
Q.
TO
+
-
+
O
C13
+
O
-
m
a —» u _ s < c s —* —\
- 0 -
-
-
^~
Q.
.
4
-
4-
+
+
0
—
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
4-
4.
4"
O 4 -
+
4-
+
-(-
+
4-
+
46
68
81
82
86
85
72
4.
4.
-
4
+
O
4
-
+
Q
+
+
+
4-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable soods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
-
4
-
4
4
-
-
4
-
-
76
-
-
4
31
-
4
4
-
-
4
50
4
-
-
-
85
4
-
4
-
4
43
-
-
4
4
-
67
68
92
83
_
_
„
_
_
+
—
+
4
+
44
+
-
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
4,
4
-
4.
_j_ •
+
+
4+
4 , 4 . 4 ,
-
4 4
4
Fabricated metal products:
—
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
_|_
4.
—
—
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
Hardware structural metal and wire products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling •*.
Metalworking machinery*
.
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
.
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
_l_
_|_
+
-
4.
-|_
_j_
4 - 4 -
+
4
-
4
-
4
4
-
4
-
-
+
-
4
-
4-
-
4-
—
4-
—
—
4-
+
—
—
—
+
-
4
-
4
-
+
4
4
-
-
4
-
—
4
-
-
-
O
-
4
—
+
-
4 - 4
_
-
-
O
4
44
-
-
-f-
4
-
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
4
4
4
—
4
4
.
4
4
.
-
4
4
4
_
4
—
4
—
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
4 * 4 "
+
4
4
+
4
4
+
—
4
4
4
+
4
4
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
—
4
+
+
+
4
.
4
4
4
,
4
,
4
,
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
July
Jan.
Aug.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June1
Millions of dollars
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES2- Continued
Electrical machinery
2,801
2,929
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
\
602 603
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
701
659
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
5,878
6,453
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
2,874
668
3,099
3,000
3,462
3,332
r3,489
p3,625
(HA)
672
690
727
762
r705
P734
(NA)
691
752
655
828
724
r725
P896
(NA)
5,870
6,363
6,141
6,526
6,574
r6,873
r6,540
p6,489
122.9
123.5
121.5
118.3
118.3
.522
.073
35.262
1.791
.586
.076
37.719
1.847
.632
.078
36.019
1.808
.620
.082
31.479
1.770
.586
.075
30.384
1.678
.642
.075
31.414
1.597
.149
.159
.297
.207
1.724
.186
.206
11.581 11.663
.252
.254
.080
.074
.150
.161
*294
.207
1.726
.150
.170
.292
.205
1.762
.151
.169
.291
.215
1.787
.151
.163
.291
.217
1.811
.152
.161
.291
.210
1.794
.232
11.535
.259
.077
.236
11.420
.257
.073
.212
.207
11.341 11.103
.235
.239
.072
.071
.235
11.100
.234
.071
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total . . . .
Stone clay and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
Index: 1957-59 = 100
116.7
116.9
115.3
114.6
115.2
120.5
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd ), average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.413
.414
.075
.073
36.929 38.600
1.910
1.819
.152
.151
.147
.14-3
.30^
.303
.206
.204
1.651 1.642
.156
.158
11.652 11.629
.268
.272
.081
.079
.426
.076
36.055
1.894
.418
.075
35.677
1.867
.152
.146
.303
.207
1.643
.162
11.733
.265
.079
.150
.145
.304
.212
1.695
.164
11.919
.260
.080
.444
.074
31.469
1.911
.149
.148
.303
.211
1.712
Millions of dollars
22,849
4,986
23,317
23,322
23,668
5,053
5,076
23,585
5,078
25,023
5,278
25,263
5,021
5,359
r2%020 p24424
(NA)
r5,391 p5,486
1,746
1,850
205
420
1,769
1,909
215
450
1,769
1,885
211
442
1,812
1,936
219
443
1,807
1,961
211
448
1,879
2,119
243
451
1,915
2,127
223
457
1,935
r2,119
220
r459
265
271
262
268
271
289
289
r277
25,536
p224
P453
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p277
(NA)
Pl,9l5
P2,109
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA=Not available, p=preliminary, r=revised,
1
Average for June 14, 15, and 16.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
48
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
1965
9-month spans
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
1966
iH
f f o | l ^ J | | - | |
I d l ^ i J - I ' l ^ Jf£
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES 2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
4 - 4 4-
—
4-
4
4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
—
-
4-
4-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
-
4
-
+
O
4 - 4 -
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
4 - 4 -
-
4-
4-
4 - 4 -
4
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
-
-
4
+
-
4
4 - 4 -
50
-
4
4-
+
-
4
0
4-
+•
4
4-
-
-
-
4
-
4
-
+
-
4-
-
+
+
4-
4-
4-
+
0
- f . _ l _ ^ . ^ , ^ - - ^ _ ( - ^ ^ _ _ j _
-
4 - 4 -
4-
42
+
+
+
4 - 4 -
15
4-
-f
35
62
62
77
46
31
42
42
69
54
54
46
46
46
46
38
54
54
54
Industrial matpriaK nrirp inripv
Copper scrap (Ib )
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
4+
4+
4 - 4 4Tin(lb.)
4Zincflb.)
4 - 4 44 - 4 Burlap (yd )
Cotton (Ib ) 15-market average
O
O
—
0
—
—
4—
4 - 4 Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops(lb)
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib)
Tallow (Ib)
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
Percent rising
48 74 74 78 37 72 70 61 33 39
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - All retail sales
O
4+
44 - 4 - 4 —
Grocery stores
....
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
+
+
+
+
+
+
44 - 4 44 - 4 Department stores
+ + _ + _ _ + _
Mail order houses (department store merchandise). . Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - O 4 - 4 - 4 —
+
44—
4*
—
4O
O
Men's and boys' wear stores
4-
4~
—
—
—
_
_
4
—
-
+
4
+
4
-
7/
-
4
+
4
-
+
-
- H 4 - 4 -
+
4
4
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
-
-
4
4
-
-
.
-
_
-
_
4
.
-
_
4
-
+
4
-
4 - 4 -
+
4-
Q1
0
-
+
QA
4
-
+
#7
-
_
-
87
4
- ^ - - j _ - | _ _ | _ - | _
—
4
4
-
-
4
4
QA
-
-
4
-
4
4
QA
-
-
4
4
4
-
QA
Q1
7A
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
^•Average for June 14, 15, and 16.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
2
49
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Jan.
Feb.
Marl
Apr.P
May
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumberyards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
485
502
501
510
500
570
594
569
584
(NA)
203
675
337
724
218
220
682
332
776
228
212
699
334
783
228
211
722
334
782
234
208
706
353
768
234
240
759
378
896
253
240
730
405
862
252
232
765
405
895
255
223
750
385
798
236
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,218
254
1,792
762
516
4,295
260
1,811
755
530
4,359
247
1,824
760
525
4,491
252
1,831
775
527
4,402
258
1,820
779
513
4,610
274
1,907
806
560
4,718
277
1,907
806
561
4,822
299
1,907
816
559
4,362
276
1,946
838
558
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
} ;;;
1965
July
Aug.
1966
Oct.
Sep.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar/
Apr/
May p
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment . .
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
60,501
60,621
60,756
61,001
61,472
62,148
62,501
62,918
62,933
102
528
357
495
1,077
983
1,208
1,149
1,238
250
334
104
530
354
495
1,079
977
1,208
1,152
1,280
248
342
105
527
357
500
1,068
983
1,218
1,163
1,267
251
342
107
530
358
500
1,046
987
1,224
1,182
1,263
252
349
108
538
362
503
1,031
1,006
1,242
1,199
1,282
254
353
113
556
370
520
1,045
1,024
1,252
1,244
1,297
261
345
118
553
373
516
1,050
1,036
1,262
1,269
1,330
265
350
121
558
375
518
1,055
1,040
1,264
1,278
1,348
267
353
123
550
374
517
1,061
1,041
1,271
1,305
1,349
268
354
63,099
126
544
380
509
1,065
1,039
1,281
1,316
1,350
271
355
1,141
75
822
1,196
500
622
548
111
361
308
1,135
68
823
1,195
497
622
•548
110
363
310
1,129
68
825
1,205
499
• 621
546
111
362
310
1,144
70
828
1,212
500
625
544
110
365
311
1,174
69
834
1,216
503
630
547
110
372
314
1,155
71
840
1,203
510
637
551
110
380
317
1,161
70
842
1,229
512
639
554
110
379
319
1,161
72
844
1,229
513
640
556
109
383
319
1,150
72
846
1,238
515
644
556
110
388
323
1,143
71
847
1,252
516
644
560
110
388
323
633
3,154
4,031
3,281
9,338
627
3,189
4,049
3,273
9,327
617
3,186
4,067
3,281
9,360
622
3,202
4,071
3,288
9,396
627
3,267
4,079
3,300
9,454
632
3,383
4,090
3,323
9,586
631
3,374
4,104
3,336
9,606
632
3,462
4,107
3,349
9,666
592
3,375
4,114
3,357
9,635
625
3,317
4,125
3,361
9,650
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
1
50
NA=Not available, preliminary, revised.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
CL
.«—
CD 0
Ofl
=*
^
o?
*H
J?
—»
>
O
0
£-
*t
%>
^
Z
t>
J
O
exj
E=
S
-0
OJ
TO
-p
Q
u_
ju
£
O
—i
TO
>^
J
2
iE
t
j\
«>
g-
<
<?
^
O
>
0
^
Q
j|-
1 1 iJ
t I 1 2E
3
•^
1
_5
^t
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores .
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liouor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
+
+
+
-
+
+
4-
4-
4-
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
-
+
+
-
+
-
4-
-
4-
0
+
0
+
4-
+
; : : :: +
+ - - +
+ + + + +
0
-
44-
4-
-
4-
*
+
_
4-
_
4-
+
+
--
4
4-
4-
+
4-
+
4-
+
+
-
0
0
-
00
+
°-
3
-
=3
D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
—i
O
4-
4-
4-
+
--
+
+
4-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
0
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4
+
57
4
-
4
-
+
-
-
+
4
+
4-
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
4-
4
4
-
4
-
-
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
4
+
+.
+
4
4
-
4-
4-
+
4-
c
X
9
-p
u.
co
TO
£
j=
"
0
OJ
^
CD
C3
78
92
4
o
o
CD
co
85
-
4
<3£
O
S
92
-
4
O
82
-
+
+
4
78
-
-°
ro
4
-
-
?•
+
L
44-
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
-
4-
+
+
+
+
4-
0
4-
0
4-
4-
+
0
-
4
4-
4 +
4
-
4-
4 -
+
-
-
4
-
4-
4 -
4
+
4
4-
+
4
-
73
+
+
-
u_
4
+
-
<C
77
-
4
+
4
4-
TO
72
+
-
c^
CD
4 - 4 - 4 -
-
1966
&Cp o
|08
^
<C
Q.
-
+
+
2
t
E
—i
4
4-
1965
>
+
s
77
-
-
4
Q-
<c
s
85 92
-
4
-
-
^
TO
4
-
-
-^
95
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
+
4-
+.
4-
4-
4-
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -
4*
4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -
4
4-
4
4-
4
-
4
4-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4
-
-
+
+
-
-
+
O
O
+
-
+
-
-
4-
-
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
0
+
+
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
-
4-
4-
4-
f
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
O
-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
O
+
-
4
+
4
+
4-
-
-
-
4-
+
0
4-
-
4
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
-
O
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4
-
+
+
+
+
+
4-
-
O
O
O
O
-
4-
O
0
+
0
+
0
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4O
44-
O
O
4+
-
4-
O
+
4-
O
+
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
-
0
4
4-
+
+
0
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
4-
1-
4-
-
+
-
4-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
0
+
+
+
4-
+
+
-
-
4-
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
4-
+
+
4-
+
4
+
+
4-
4-
-
+
+
4-
+
4
+
+
-
+
92
+
-
- 4 - 4 +
+
+
O
Z
+
4-
-
*J
C3
93
4-
-
5"
co
+
0
4
=
<C
95
+
-
1
+
-
-
4
s !
JM
on
A
*
"E
-^
92 87
4
4-
4-
-
4
4-
1966
z
63
-
(Dining
= rising; o = unchanged;
4
6-month spans
-*-"
<C
0
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade • * . •
+
-
4-
o? o
CD
5
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
+
+
1965
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
+
O
+
1-month spans
Percent rising
All nonagri cultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
4-
+
-
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
O
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Mayp
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTSi-Con.
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
,
Federal government
State and local government
3,049
8,929
2,376
7,678
3,053
8,'946
2,379
7,706
3,061
8,967
2,379
7,740
3,069
9,019
2,386
7,785
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products ....*.
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures.
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber*
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Q03|
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
3,080
9,142
2,425
7,965
3,074
9,081
2,400
7,869
3,082
9,205
2,451
8,021
r3,100
r9,251
2,477
r8,Q94
r3,102
r9,262
r2,501
r8,135
3,102
9,281
2,528
8,192
Index: 1957-59 = 100
144.2
144.5
H3.5
145.1
146.4
150.2
rl51.9
r!53.3
r!53.6
154.8
148.7
148.0
146.5
147.5
131.2
147.0
123.7
150.9
119 .'4
153.6
130.8
157.0
r!33.6
rl60.7
rl41.4
r!60.7
r!43.*0
rl60.9
148
162
161 '.7
159.2
149.8
152.1
162.4
160.1
151.5
152.6
162.4
162.1
H9.4
155.7
165^8
166.2
155.0
158.0
166^9
168.4
157.3
159.0
171.9
177.6
163.1
166.0
174.4
179.8
163.2
rl69.4
r!74.0
r!79.2
rl65.8
r!71.9
r!74.8
r!82 . 4
rl66.2
r!74.8
132.6
115.4
133.5
117.2
133.8
116.2
134 '.4
118.3
135." 5
119.1
139.4
125.6
r!41.*4
126.5
r!43.2
r!26.6
r!43.*6
p!29.4
176
184
164
177
136
142
(NA)
155*.8
1-43.5
156^3
146.6
156!s
147.1
159^7
150.4
162^6
153.0
165.' 4
151.2
166^8
155.3
rl68.8
r!56.8
rl69.*6
r!56.4
172
158
133.' 8
U3.8
107.7
134 ".8
HI. 9
107.0
135.7
U3.8
108.2
137.' 7
145.7
109.3
139 '.4
147.2
110.1
140.1
146.9
111.7
r!4o'.7
r!48.3
110.1
r!40.7
PH9.1
pllO.5
141.2
pl41.6
(NA)
(NA)
142.1
131.3
141 '.1
133.0
143 .*9
129.3
143.6
131.1
147! 4
133.2
148.4
135.7
r!48.5
138.2
rl53^2
r!39.0
172.8
124.5
170.2
174.2
125.8
168.1
176.' 6
125.1
171.2
177.1
124.0
175.5
178.5
126.1
181.6
181.9
130.5
184.6
r!84.3
125.5
183.3
rl85.8
rl26.1
p!82.0
123 .'l
119.9
122.4
120.7
123.2
120.6
123.6
114.5
125.6
118.9
126.0
119.6
r!27.0
rl26.7
r!27.7
p!26.8
P150.0
r!38.4
r!76.3
pi 87.1
p!27.4
(NA)
r!27.5
p!27.5
(NA)
141
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
145
(NA)
139
177
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
128
(NA)
(NA)
117.1
113.0
115.2
114.2
106.7
110.6
116.8
114.0
115.7
113.8
114.4
113.4
111.2
115.0
117.7
rll6.4
85.3
116.7
126.4
127.3
130.2
129.1
122.4
127.4
116.5
125.5
114.2
133.2
133." 4
135.5
130.8
135.6
r!34.5
r!37.1
pl34*.2
p!30.6
(NA)
(NA)
103.0
103.3
103.2
103.4
103.7
104.2
104.9
105.2
105.2
105.6
99.5
97.8
101.9
101.6
101.0
97.7
101.7
101.3
101.6
97.7
101.7
101.4
101.8
97.9
101.6
101.1
102.5
98.0
101.5
101.3
103.9
98.3
102.1
101.8
104.3
98.5
102.1
102.2
105.7
98.4
102.1
102.4
108.2
r98.6
r!02.2
102.1
109.2
98.9
102.4
101.9
'
117
119
128
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
•
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. NA=Not available, preliminary, ^revised.
-"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
52
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
j f s - g | | | <p 1 I- I
- ^ < e / j
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products.
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coa!
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
+
+
+
O Z : Q - ^ U . S < C
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
f fI ! i i ! ! I
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
88 100
96
96
+
67
52
75
83
92
71
79
83
62
62
83
67
88
88
88
88
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- 4 - -
+
+
+
4
+
-
-
+
4
-
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
W
A
_
L
_
j
_
4
.
_
i
_
.
_
i
_
.
,
1
t
t
A
*
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4 . 4 , 4 . 4 , 4 . 4 , 4 . 4 . i^
4.
-+
+
+
++ NA
+
+
+
+
- NA NA -
4-
-
*
+
-
+
-+
+
+
--
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
+
+
+
+
+ - N A
+
- NA
—
—
+
+
OO
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
4
-
4
63
+
O
.
74
.
Q
80
4
+
- NA
— +
+
—
4
70
+
+
+
-NA
+ N A N A
52
+
72
.
.
+
-+
+
+
54
Q
52
+
-
4-
o + N A
+ N A N A
+ N A N A
_
.
+
+
-
+
+
•
+
. . .
+'
+
+
.
.
.
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
*
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ NA NA
+ NA NA
+
+ + NA
+
+
4,
4.
4.
4.
4.
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+ N A N A
+
+
+
+ NA
+ NA NA
+
—
'
—
+
+
+
+
NA
+
- 4 - - 4 - 4 _
+
4 - - » - 4 - 4 -
TJA
--
J - 4 _
TJA
+
74
4
. . .
67
4
67
70
61
61
72
74
87
89
89
+
+
+
4-
+
96
.
+
-
+
0-0
+ =rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. NA Not available.
^The percent rising is "based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr!
MayP
Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINQi-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
*
115.8
101.4
109.3
104.7
105.2
97.3
100.5
113.3
116.6
101.7
110.2
105.7
105.2
96.7
100.7
112.2
117.2
101.7
110.0
105.9
104.8
96.6
100.7
110.8
116.8
101.7
109.7
106.0
104.8
96.5
100.3
110.5
117.8
101.9
109.9
106.3
105.3
96.4
100.5
112.9
118.4
102.2
109.9
106.6
105.5
97.1
100.5
112.5
119.9
102.7
110.1
106.8
105.6
97.8
100.4
115.1
121.0
103.4
110.6
107.3
105.7
98.3
100.3
113.0
122.5
103.5
110.7
108.6
105.7
98.5
100.3
113.0
122.5
103.5
111.0
109.2
105.9
98.4
101.1
117.3
106.3
107.2
100.9
104.7
95.6
103.6
107.0
107.1
100.8
105.1
94.8
103.9
100.2
97.5
95.5
93.5
108.4
100.3
97.3
97.4
93.4
112.0
106.1
107.4
100.9
105.5
94.4
103.9
100.3
97.4
96.7
93.5
111.2
106.1
107.4
101.0
105.9
93.3
104.1
100.5
97.6
96.8
93.1
112.6
107.1
107.6
100.9
105.4
92.6
104.1
100.8
97.5
98.0
93.1
113.3
109.5
108.3
100.7
105.6
91.4
104.7
101.1
97.5
97.0
93.4
116.6
111.9
108.3
101.1
105.6
91.1
104.9
101.1
97.5
97.9
94.0
118.8
112.1
109.6
101.5
105.8
90.7
105.0
101.6
97.4
97.5
94.1
119.3
111.8
109.6
102.2
106.2
90.5
105.0
102.2
97.4
98.6
95.4
121.2
111.8
109.5
102.8
106.5
89.7
105.0
102.6
97.6
98.3
95.4
122.6
p=preljminary, r=revised.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
54
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-montfi spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
19 66
Diffusion index title and components
Q Q C S . - * - .
3
CU
O
>
O
f
<£
E = - Q
• - » - .
CO
C U ™
0 .
>.
0 3
< ; c o o z Q —* L J u . * = < C S
_!_
oo
A
.*!*
>
o
<=
jo
JL
u_
s z a a f o o e u m * 1 3 ™ 0 - ^ < t c o 0 2 0 - ^ U _ S < :
058. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp paper and allied products • • •
••-
O
4.
4.
4.
4 - 4 - 4 O
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
—
o
0
O
+
4-
+
4-
+
O
+
—
+
O
+
4-
+
4-
—
4 - 4 -
4-
O
—
4
4—
—
4-
0
O
+
+
4-
O
—
—
4 -
44O 4 -
O
44
4
-
4-
4-
—
O
—
0
4-
O +
0
+
+
+
+
O
O
+
O
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
™
+
+
—
+
—
O
—
O
+
—
+
—
O
+
O
+
c
« ;6
s
<: J8
+
cL
<2
+•
+
+
11
-^
<c s
o 1
_i_
^_
+
+
+
+
+
—
—
o
+
+
+
•*•
4"
+*
+
+
+
+
—
o
—
0
—
—
0
4*
1"
+
+
*-
+
+
+
+
0
—
+
+
g S
z 9
£15-1-1
4-
4-
-
% & -G
2 o? o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
^
h
+
H irlp^ ^IfinQ Ip^thpr f\ni\ Ip^thpf nrnHnrtc
9-montti spans
1-month spans
1965
"
^
r
J
n
T
O
O
C
U
m
C
U
C
D
O
-
—i < C o o O 2 : O - S U - S < t
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
paper
80
81
67
70
57
+
0
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
74.
14
4.9
—
4
64
—
19(%
1965
f• atao S
l i> l (jS j_ i _Q- S
t
A> ,4!,
ii_
j_
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components)^
Percent rising3.,.
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
euj
3
<C
Q_
cu
co
o
o
>
J2
2=
0
o>
Cp
=
•^
"S
•?
I I 1£ 1
< S
58
73
68
61
59
64
s
=I
-s?
60
6^3
+
4
51
»
eao
1 5
7n
*ip
—
+
+
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
+
+
+
--
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_i_
4.
_i
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.
+
+
....
...
-
+
+
0
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retai 1 stores composite
Life insurance
1966
+
_
+
+
_
-
_
-
-
_
_
4
+
-
'
-
+
+
+
+
+
4-
-
—
-
_
+
+
+
~
—
—
+
4-
-
+
+
+
_
_
-
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter.
55
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Q
jfjj
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21) .......
.
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
••
• •*
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
f
l
QJ
c x ^ > "
o
o
***
c
ro
.0
Oi
sJS
*_
^-
>*
jg
2
?
a
•=j
•^
=3
<t
§"
<xa
"o
O
o
Z
to
0
<5
—i
CD
ti_
ro
S
a.
<
38
79
57
45
51
38
45
83
53
4.6
66
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
—
+
—
+
+
o
+
—
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
4_
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
_
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
--
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
444 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
+
92
+
+
+
_
4-
87 70 63 92 96
- +
+ +
_
4 - 4 -
81
+
+
+
+
62 79
= 3 J 2
—» < C
+
+
+
4+
_
4
2T
+
+
+
+
-
w
-+ +
+ +
-
4
-
+
_
+
+
+
S
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 +
+
+
-
c
-+ +
+
+ +
+ +
_ _
+ +
+
+
+
4
°
+
+
+
+
+
_
-
+
-
S
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
4-
4
~
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
-
-
°.S
(5 .*>
tv
£•
™
§
2 t Q —» L i _ 3 S ^ S —»
-
44
-
f ^ o | ^ ^ £ f | - |
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
_
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+ 4 - 4 - 4 -
- = rising; o = unchanged;+ = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
(Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
56
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
57
CHART
JUNE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
-Reference trough dates
-— July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
immimm
Percent
-Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
130
materials prices
17. Ratio, price to
unit tabor cost, mfg.
120
110
110
100*2
105
•32
so
100*
80
70
95
24. New orders, math.
and equip. Indus.
19 Stock prices, 500
common stocks
200
190
180
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
170
160
150
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100*
100
90
90
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
80
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes tor this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6, Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level, * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
QPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
§
bed
CHART
JUNE 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
r rrTTT
l
PERIOD COVERED
• Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
r r 'i
T" i mi 'i
r IM i
r 11
— Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
" • May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
-I 0
Feb. 1961)
1
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)
-Reference trough dates
2
3
4
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
5
6
7
8
Percent
55.
Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
115
110
100*
95
-1 85
-12-6
0
+ 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +-36 +42 +48 +-54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lincs represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level,
if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
i
CHART
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JUNE 1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
4th 0. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough:
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough:
4th 0. 1949)
3rd Q. 1954)
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
•
2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough:
1st 0. 1961)
Percent
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
67. Bank rates on
short-term business loans
-12 -6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quartets of previous expansions are shown in table 6.
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. O Latest data anticipated.
*Reference peak level.
if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a'new reference trough was reached.
60
Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JUNE 7966
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
:
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
*
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
-
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
i May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
Reference trough dates
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product
acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1
Feb. 1961)
+20
Percent
+15
-i 115
+10
62. Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
+5
-5
-10
98.
Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1
+8
64. Book value of mfrs.'
inventories
+6
+4
+2
0
-2
-> 90
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1
cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. ] Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
»'Reference peak level. -^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
61
fi
TABLE
CYCLICAL
COMPARISONS
JUNE 1966 0CC7
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
troughl
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in-
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
Oct.
1949
June
1938
98.3
78.1
49.4
120.0
101.5
90.2
101.9
167.5
113.6
178.0
338.9
305.7
64.7
39.3
38.1
48.3
72.5'
36.1
38.1
21.5
132.7
99.6
146.3
60.7
61.8
181.7
110. 8
97.9
134-0
133.1
33.7
137.1
181.4
62.8
144.6
157.3
72.6
71.5
51.5
(NA)
60th
63d
63d
63d
63d
63d
173.7
106.0
157.2
113.6
168.0
104.1
125.4
101.0
142.4
90.8
131.3
132.4
128.0
98.6
235.6
110.0
141.0
100.2
101.4
96.9
232.8
83.8
148.6
158.5
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
63d
63d
63d
60th
116.0
+1.2
140.9
141.5
106.9
-1.5
122.9
130.7
106.2
-3.3
110.1
131.7
50 GNP in 1958 do! lars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y.
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
(pods
60th
63d
63d
63d
129.4
171,7
140.8
132.6
119.7
154.2
131.3
122.4
63d
103.6
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b Antic ipated^
60th
69th
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
63d
62d
62d
63d
103.8
127.0
236.7
15.8.2
101.3
103.6
103.7
131.5
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
63d
102.0
62d
62d
63d
L6. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks ...........
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits private housing
Aug.
1954
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
98.8
35.8
31.8
108.5
(NA)
38.7
14.0
165.7
11.6
78.4
204.1
26.1
57.2
(NA)
12.3
93.5
58.1
122.3
104.6
119.0
49.9
79.0
20.9
223.3
(NA)
73.8
112.8
(NA)
(NA)
17.6
(NA)
33.9
66.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
48.0
38.9
(NA)
(NA)
130.8
(NA)
322.8
80.4
(NA)
(NA)
106.0
(NA)
147.5
56.4
(NA)
(NA)
109.5
-1.2
132.9
141.5
132.5
(NA)
200.5
205.8
85.9
-20.0
72.6
77.3
63.7
(NA)
59.5
57.7
101.0
(NA)
121.6
127.4
87.6
(NA)
120.1
(NA)
114.1
149.8
134.2
125.7
126.5
151.0
138.7
131.0
(NA)
207.6
202.5
142.8
92.4
58.1
77.2
79.0
79.6
52.6
57.2
59.5
129.0
154.4
124.8
110.7
(NA)
109.1
(NA)
11*9.4
101.3
111.5
109.3
112.8
89.3
66.8
85.1
64.0
159.8
175.1
100.8
112.7
118.7
129.2
117.6
133.2
(NA)
(NA)
57.5
50.6
21.6
38.8
122.7
89.9
66.0
61.4
63d
62d
62d
60th
98.6
129.5
171.3
103.7
100.5
112.2
152.8
103.7
113.1
116.0
173.8
141.3
112.1
145.5
273.1
134.5
143.4
155.7
54.9
(NA)
91.7
101.1
119.4
52.4
68.2
(NA)
(NA)
96.4
84.5
73.3
(NA)
(NA)
111.0
(NA)
(NA)
82.0
60th
61st
-5.4
+6.92
-0.8
+5.28
+5.2
-2.36
-5.2
+5.34
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplusordeficit, Fed. incomeand prod. acct.(Q) 3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3j5
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendixA for the reference peak dates. NA«Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CICLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
62
bed JUNE 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
™£
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough *
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in-
Feb,
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
63d
62d
62d
63d
+5.4
'+17.5
+173.3
+69,0
+4.5
+14.0
+79.6
+49.1
+0.8
+7.5
-26.4
+33.9
+2.4
+1.6
+51.9
+93.3
+29.5
+99.3
(NA)
(NA)
-6.6
-4.1
+3.2
+151.7
-26.0
-50.6
-46.2
-78.4
+6.6
+7.4
+66.9 +236.6
(NA)
+2.6
-3.2 +134.7
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space^
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
63d
+1.9
+36.8
-14.9
+4.4
-35.4
+309.6
-88.9
-20.8 +108.4
62d
62d
63d
+95.0
+19.2
+0.2
+70.5
+39.4
-55.2
+41.5
+53.6
-34.1
+67.5
+50.5
-38.1
+44-8
-40.2
(NA)
+117.8
-27.9
(NA)
-85.8
-10.0
-36.9
+76.1
+41.3
+32.0
+82.9
+9.1
+24.0
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
60th
63d
63d
63d
63d
63d
+98.0
+7.0
+39.6
+19.1
+77.2
+7.4
+61.4
+6.5
+63.1
+4-4
+48.7
+30.2
+33.5
+0.8
+86.2
+10.0
+51.4
-16.2
+24.3
-0.5
+124.0
+11.6
+69.5
-1.0
(NA)
(NA)
+17.4
+66.7
NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+63.9
+60.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-63.4
-60.1
(NA)
(NA)
+142.9
(NA)
+210.0
-4-1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+99.4
+34.9
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3.
47 Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
63d
63d
63d
60th
+18.2
+2.8
+49.4
+41.8
+11.3
+1.7
+43.1
+33.0
+9.9
+0.2
+21.1
+32.7
+15.4
+2.9
+45.2
+46.4
+47.9
(NA)
+193.4
+133.7
+25.6
+5.4
+50.5
+53.5
-33.7
(NA)
-36.8
-42.5
+16.3
(NA)
+48.1
+30.4
+27.1
(NA)
+75.8
+40.3
50, GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52. Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
.
.. 4
60th
63d
63d
63d
+31.3
+67.6
+39.5
+36.2
+24.0
+59.2
+31.1
+25.4
+16.7
+47.5
+34.2
+26.2
+28.6
+57.2
+45.5
+31.7
(MA)
+148.6
+127.4
+72.6
+28.3
+52.3
+57.0
+39.7
-22.2
-51.6
-43.2
-40.5
+29.4
+59.4
+24.8
+12.9
+40.3
+40.7
+43.3
+24.7
63d
+3.7
+1.8
+12.4
+15.1
+19.4
+23.3
-28.2
-6.8
+1.2
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated4
60th
69th
+71.3
+87.7
+25.5
+40.3
+24.3
+35.2
+47.0
+66.5
(NA)
(NA)
+235.0
+194.9
-75.4
-55.8
+75.8
+28.9
+92.3
+78.9
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories .....
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
63d
62d
62d
60th
-2.4
+30.9
+65.7
+11.7
-5.6
+16.5
+51.6
+20.1
+9.9
+24.1
+68.1
+48.0
+16.0
+55.8
+118.1
+34.0
+38.2
+64.5
-41.1
(NA)
+25.0
+70.6
+149.9
-32.6
-30.8
(NA)
(NA)
+0.2
-17.8
(NA)
(NA)
+26.6
-18.5
(NA)
(NA)
-24.0
60th
61st
+5.1
+1.44
+14.2
-0.78
+4.0
-5.36
+1.1
+4.52
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q)^
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5^
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or T (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52,55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of"3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9,13,14,17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trough month is used astfie base. See MCD footnote to appendixC. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA-Not available.
x
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
4
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries„
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough
Cycle
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893 . .
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902 . .
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
40
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
JuOy 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average , all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
2
54
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961.
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860. .
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
X
49
46
4
46
5
48
42
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
2
4
6
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1-960.
Source:
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B,-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
195*
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . *
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
Dec.
'60 Apr.
'58 Apr.
'54 Apr.
'49 Jan.
'38 June '32 Apr.
'28 July '24 Feb.
'21
'32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
'34 Dec. '26 June ' 24Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
June '32
July '32 Aug. '28 June ' 24July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'38
'39
(NA)
Apr. '38
June '38
(NA)
(NA)
Oct.
Dec.
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
4thQ '49
2ndQ '49
July '49
Oct. '49
(NSC)
June
June
May
2ndQ
IstQ
May
June
May
'38
'38
'38
'38
'38
'38
'38
'38
Mar.
May
July
IstQ
3rdQ
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24
(NSC)
(NSC)
'33
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC)
(NSC)
'33
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NA)
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
May '61 June
Jan. '61 Nov.
Mar. '61 Apr.
Oct. '60 Dec.
Dec. T60 Apr.
Nov. !60 Feb.
Dec. '60 Feb.
'58
'57
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58
(NSC)
(NSC)
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Aug.
Feb.
July
June
June
Apr.
Jan.
Feb. '61
May '61
Feb. '61
4thQ '60
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. '60
Apr. '61
May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
May
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Aug.
Sep.
Apr.
2ndQ
2ndQ
Apr.
Sep.
Jan.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ '61
Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing. Sep. !'61
June 61
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ '61
3rdQ
Apr.
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Sep.
Sep.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47 . Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53, Labor income in mining, rafg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
July '21
(NA)
Apr. '21
4thQ '21
(NA)
2ndQ '21
(NA)
Mar. '22
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
'49
'50
'50
'50
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23 . Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
(NSC) Dec.
'36 Oct.
'29 Nov.
'25 Nov.
'22
(NA)
May
>59 Nov.
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Mar.
Feb.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC)
(NSC)
Feb. '51
Jan. '53
Feb. '51
Feb. '51
July '50
Mar.
July
May
June
Jan.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53
'53
153
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48
Jan. '48
July '48
4thQ »48
4thQ '48
Oct. '48
Aug. '48
(NSC)
July
July
May
3rdQ
3rdQ
June
May
Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
'57
'58
'57
'57
3rdQ
Mar.
Sep.
4thQ
'53
'54
'53
'53
4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ
3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NSC)
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
'55 Mar.
'53
'46 July '37
'46 Dec. '36
(NA)
»48
'48 Feb. '37
'48 Mar. '37
(NA)
'48
'47
(NA)
'29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22
'29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Mar. '23
Sep. '29
Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
Dec.
'19
'19
(NA)
July '19
Apr. »20
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
'29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
Aug.
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing .Mar.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Sep.
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
'48
»49
'49
'49
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trougft or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA
Not available.
66
NSC
No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
AppendixC.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes
1/5
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg,....
Jan. '53-Sep.'65
.48
.42
Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. » 53-Sep. '65 4.75 4.47
Nonagri. 'placements, all industries... Jan. ' 53-Sep. »65 1.83
1.34
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.20
8.26
Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. '53-Sep> '65 17.13 16.59
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.95
4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan.. '53-Sep. '65 3.76
3.33
.19
1.40
1.09
3.42
3.64
2.23
3.20
1.23
2.41
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.74
.84
.63
.77
.96
2.08
2.14
2.11
1.95
1.57
1.50
1.54
1.52
1.46
1.42
11.69
9.50
7.24
8.94
6.61
3.75
3.72
3.97
4.69
2.69
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1.42 12.67
1.58 8.44
3.97
4.41
1.52
2.51
3
.88
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97 9.41
3.08
1.43
.89 7.91
2.54
1.29
.53 1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
7.84
1.54
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
1
C ) 1.60
.84 1.88
H 1.38
.80 1.85
.66 2.71
.78' 1.92
C1) 1.49
C1) 1.55
1.48
1.71
1.38
1.52
1.63
1.63
1.39
1.46
12,67
9.50
15.20
13.82
6.61
7.24
8.94
11.69
3.00
3.39
2.63
2.88
4.08
3,19
2.23
2.58
.49
1.68
.25
1.64
1.92
1.02
3
2
.81
.57
2.20
2.37
1.79
1.58
6.61
9.50
4.55
3.97
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1,63
8.94
3.49
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.30
Total nonagri cultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
.36
Unemployment rate, total
Jan. ' 53-Dec. '65 3.92
Unemployment rate, married males
Nov ' 54-Dec ' 655.39
Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.19
46. Help-wanted advertising
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.00
.14
.30
3.04
4.55
.26
.20
2.19
2.66
.55
1.50
1.39
1.71
1
2
2
2
.55
.80
.72
.91
4.90
2.01
2.54
3.41
1.46
1.60
1.60
1.56
16.89
25.83
8.16
7.82
4.90
3.42
3.95
4.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1,75
1.39
7.60
8.94
4.90
3.10
47. Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57
52 Personal income
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.51
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.84
54 . Sales of retail stores
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .97
55. Wholesale prices except farm products
and foods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.16
.54
1.50
.26
.52
.83
.76
.64
.44
.63
.44
.71
2.34
.58
.82
1.88
1
3
1
1
3
.71
.58
.58
.82
.70
3.62
1.65
4.61
2.67
2.08
1.67
1.50
1.54
1.55
1.57
11.69
30.40
21.71
13.82
15.20
3.62
4.29
4.61
2.67
4.84
.09
.13
.71
1
.71
3.90
1.54
8.00
3.90
.56
.53
.40
.19
.32
.49
1.28
.38
2
1
.72 2.41
.38 10.13
1.57
1.63
6.61
3.51
21.71 10.13
.56
.84
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
1
1
.65 8.94
.14 11.69
1.49
1.63
13.82 8.94
21.71 11.69
Federal cash payments to public. ......Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.42
4.25
Federal cash receipts from public
3.80
Jan, '55-Dec. '64 3.87
Defense Dept . oblig . , procurement
Jan. '56-Sep. '65 27.42 27.34
Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. '53-Sep, '65 13.86 13.59
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 24.51 24.35
Military contract awards in U.S
.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
8.28
2.94
6
6
6
6
6
C'1)
C11)
C1)
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
New orders, defense products
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields
Mortgage yields
'
1.92 11.72
4.46
1.12
.93 1.41
.53 2.48
1.90
1.10
.65
.11
6
2
2
4
3
1
1.57
.73 2.53
.98 2.76
.93 2.27
.87 2.58
.65 10.00
1.48
1.77
2.00
1.62
1.88
1.92
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18 3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan ! 53-Sep '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69
4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
May ' 59-Sep ' 65 7.16
7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.65
3.28
38. Index of net business formation
.79
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.60
13. New business incorporations
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 2.49
2.18
14. Liabilities of business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15. Large business failures
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6512.31 12.12
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.59
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. * 53-Sep. '65 2.49
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.46
26. Buying policy production materials;
commitments 60 days or longer. ....... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 5.27
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan '53-Sep '65 7.47
23, Industrial materials prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.31
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42
43.
40,
45,
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
64. Book value of mfrs. ' inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
66. Consumer installment debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82.
83
90
91.
92.
99
114
115.
116.
117
118.
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6522.53 22.53
5.00
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.70
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.65
1.31
Jan. '60-Sep. '65 1.44
1.31
2.08
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.46
Jul. '61-Sep '65
.07
.11
t)
H
x
()
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
9.50
2.53
3.68
6.61
8,00 3.68
3.61
5.67
3.66
8.00
5.56 10.00
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued
T/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES^-Con.
86. Exports , excluding military aid
Jan.'53-Oct. '64 3.81
87 . General imports
Jan. '53-Oct. '64 3.04
81 . Consumer price s
.15
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
94. Construction contracts, value
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 6.64
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan . ' 53-Sep . ' 65
1.45
3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54
.94
.80
.13
1.55
1.28
3.77
3.59
.69
4.12
.42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.69
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63
1.66
1.62
1.54
1.52
1.57
14.10
10.85
16.89
8.00
10.86
4.06
3.54
5.63
3.15
5.63
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37
21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123 . Canada
122 . United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . West Germany
126 . France
127. Italy
128. Japan
Jan.1'53-Sep. '65
Jan. 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan.' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
Period
covered
cT
I
C
l/t
i/5
Quarterly series
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations} mf g. ,
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
IQr53-IIIQ'65 10.36
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 5.60
IQ'53-IIIQr65 6.03
4.70
3,09
3.59
7.69
4.29
3.80
.61
.72
.95
1
1
1
.61
.72
.95
2.94
3.33
2.38
1.32
1.32
1.35
3.33
5.00
4.17
2.94
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
4.34
2.87
3.11
.92
1
.92
2.38
1.25
5.00
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.23
1.47
1.30
.38
.35
.31
1.09
1.39
1.26
.35
.25
.25
1
1
1
.35 3.33
5.56
.25
.25 10.00
1.28
1.22
1.16
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
3.21
.77
2.99
,26
1
.26
5.56
1,47
5.56
5.56
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
.84
.42
.67
.62
1
.62
2.94
1.22
5.56
2.94
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 11.47
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6,63
7.37
2.47
1.20
7.95
3.27
6.38
.93
.75
.19
1
1
1
.93
.75
.19
2.38
2.08
4.17
1.16
1.25
1.32
3.85
4.17
8.33
2.38
2.08
4.17
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales
5.56 3.33
7.14' 5.56
10.00 10.00
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110 . Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro. , mfg
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical
68
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD-" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical .movements in quarterly
series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month sipans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
.debits, all 3XISA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR,
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.—Average Unit Changes
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Period
covered
Unit of
me a sure
CI
I
C
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.60
3.47
.74
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
1.51
do
.29
1.44
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.48
.46
.13
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Jan. '55-Dec. '64 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 4.34
4.22
.82
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46.86
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
85 . Change in money supply
percent . .! .3.11 3.12
.29
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. '53-Sep. '65
do
.29
2.53
2.52
112. Change in business loans
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 1.39
1.35
.35
.79
.31
.87
113. Change in consumer installment debt... 'Jan. '53-Sep. '65 ....do
88. Merchandise trade balance
Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28
Quarterly series
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries . . . .
Period
covered
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
89a U.S. balance of payments (liquidity).. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
Unit of
measure
I
C
4.70
5
.98 1.48 1.45
8.94
2.79
4.97
3.51
6 (*) 1.67 1.50
4 .98 1.69 1.62
6.08
7.60
3.00
3.10
5.16
1.68
5 .98 L.59 1.43 7.44 2.74
3 .68 2.03 1.60 OD.13 3.49
10.88
8.78
6
L.37 1.37 9.50 2.67
< ix> 1.43
6 (
1.43 10.13 2.41
)
3.87
2.56
3.23
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64
3 .92 L.65 1.49 10.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42
2.56
3.13
2.64
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C QCD QCD
C QCD
span CI I
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 2.28
1.44 1.00
1.43
2.49
1.78
.76
1.35
do
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
Hlot computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
CI
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C MCD MCD
C MCD
span CI I
2 .46 1.79 1.35 4.55
1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85
2 .45 1.67 1.25 3.13
2.88
2.17
2.72
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical cqmponent from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.
69
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1965 TO JUNE 1966)
1965
May
June
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
77.6 73.8
5. Average weekly initial claims. State
unemployment insurance
82. 3 83.8
103.1 105.8
13. New business incorporations1
95.7 106.6
14. Liabilities of business failures
15 . Large busine ss failure s
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
IB. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg...
Si . Consumer price s
82. Federal cash payments to public1
83. Federal cash receipts from public3...
90.
91.
92.
112.
128.
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement...,
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S
Change in business loans'*'
Japan, industrial production index. ..
July
107.2 140.3
99.0
86.9
105 3 83.9 77.4
102.6 95.0 93.1
100.7 104.7 96.7
99.5 102.3 86.3
101.3 102.5 96.3
106.3
107.4 111.3 102.4
107.1
Aug. Sept.
94.8
1966
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
90.4
89.9
Feb. Mar. Apr.
92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1
92.6
May June
73.3
81.9
82.6
88.6 104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1
94.9 86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2
95.8 107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1
95.7 91.3 94.6 95.0 83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106.7 100.8 101.6
98.8 101.8 103.1 100.4 97.9 98.0 99.5 100.3 100.8 101.1 102.0
106.2
96.3
100.5
96.9
112.2 121.8 111.7 97.6 82.1 79.3 76.7 92.8 102.1 110.7 109.8
92.9
92.7
90.2
88.6 92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9 101.6
100.0
98.6
99.7
98 4
1897.
99.9 99.9 99.8 100.0
99.9
97.7 104.1 101.2 98.3 97.0
99 9 100 2 100 0 100 1 100 1
104 0 97 0 114 2 96 9 101 9
4431. -4573. 1313. 2181. -4969.
100.0
99.5
100 0
101 4
165.
100.1 100.1
102.6 102.2
100 0 100 0
105 8 91 4
655. -2964.
100.0
100.5
99 9
94 4
1315.
100.0 100.0
99.5 98.9
99 9 99 9
94 1 97 &
2258. -1689.
93.8
88 6
90 2
100 0
100.1
179.9 87.4 87.1
143 1 115 2 1 92 4
171 9 72 8 88 4
99 5 98 9 98 5
99.8 100.0 96.4
100.0
106 3
101 1
99 9
99.6
96.4
91 7
85 4
101 3
98.8
99.2
96 1
90 5
101 3
102.3
83.4
82 0
87 2
99 5
100.7
99.2
97 5
113 8
100 5
108.2
93.2
99 7
103 9
99 3
99.5
82.8
94 4
95 5
100 4
94.0
95.6
96 1
84 3
100 5
99.4
99.9
99.9
98.6
98.0
99 8 99 9
100 3 104 7
1897. 4431.
95.7
91 4
90 1
100 2
99.9
179.0
142 2
174 7
99 8
100.6
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data
ally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
program.
^Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
70
from the application of these
trading-day factors.
to yield the monthly seasonMethod II seasonal adjustment
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
MayOct.
Aug.
May
1920-July
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937 -June
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
Feb . 1945-Oct . 19454
Nov . 1948-Oct . 1949
July 1953-Aug. 19545
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
50. GNP 49. GNP
in 1958 in curdollars rent
dollars
(Q)1
(Q)1
51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
t8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-2.2
-16.0
-8.8
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-2.6
-1.4
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
-5.6
-6.5
-3.6
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference peak to reference trough
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
2
2
4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.8
+3.4
3.5
7.1
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.1
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference trough to reference peak
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
Change
in rate, Rate at
peak
peak to
trough
52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail
sonal
stores
income
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
2
Rate at
trough
2
Rate at
peak
2
1921-May
1924-Oct.
1927-Aug
1933-May
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929
1937
19454
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
Oct. 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug. 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May
1948
19535
1957
1960
+17.2
+17,8
+8.9
+6.8
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+63.8
+25.6
+20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.5
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+20.5
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+16.0
+23.0
-2.6
-2.0
$.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945...
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or M2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the
3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
^-The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
89b. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U. S. balance of payments — official settlements basis (Mil. dol.)
1948
.. .
1950! '.!!.'
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
...
...
...
.. .
• ••
...
...
...
•• •
...
...
...
...
...
72
.. !
-409
-864
-428
...
...
.!.
...
-453
+774
-286
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
-1,015
-454
-935
...
...
-1,525
-803
-1,057
.. .
...
...
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Tables
Charts
1
2
3
1
2
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
B
G
F
C
D
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. .
2 Accession rate manufacturing
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus —
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45, Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
L
L
L
L
L
L
U
L
L
L
Lg
U
U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
L
L
L
Lg
14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14
59
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
3
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
62
63
66
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
70
70
70
72
72
*66
*66
72
71
71
72
*66
*66
*66
71 71
• 71
Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Jan .
Feb.
Jan.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
r
71
71
71
71
Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar.
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
'66
'65
'65
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
' 65
' 65
' 65
'63
' 64
'63
68
65
72
66
68
Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.
'64
' 64
'65
' 64
'64
*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 63
' 64
'64
*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74
Jan,
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Sept.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'65
'65
'65
'65
' 64
'65
66
'66
'64
'63
' 66
'66
'66
'63
' 63
'64
'66
'66
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
49 GNP in current dol lars
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
47. Industrial production
52 Personal income
.
53. Labor income in mining mfg. constr. ....
54. Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
60
60
59
••
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
71
71
70
72
72
72
72
72
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
38. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries
24. New orders, mach, and equip, industries . .
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment11. New capital appropriations, mfg
61. Bus. expenditures/new plant and equip . .
Ill Corporate gross savings
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .>.
u
58
60
••
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
70
•.
73
July '64
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31. Change mfg and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65 Mfrs ' inventories finished goods.
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
26. Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .
Lg
L
L
60
••
62
63
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81. Consumer prices
62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17. Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
Lg
Lg
L
L
L
14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
61
58
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68
70
70
70
70
70
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). ^Appendix G.
73
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
Charts
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E Page
Issue
Page
Issue
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
U
85. Change in money supply
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93 Free reserves
66. Consumer installment debt
Lg
U
113. Change consumer installment debt
U
112. Change in business loans
U
110. Total private borrowing
114
115
116
117
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
u
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
U
U
U
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields
u
u
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Lg
L
14 Liabilities of business failures
L
15 Large business failures
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
21
21
21
Cl
21
18
12
12
61
*.
61
62
63
62
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
..
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
70
70
70
73
74
66
70
71
71
72
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
July
July
Nov.
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64 73
' 64 73
'65 73
71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66
July
July
July
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
'64
'63
'64
71
72
72
74
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July
'66
'66
'66
'65
72
72
72
72
70
70
70
66
May
May
May
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
' 66
' 66
'66
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
'64
' 64
'64
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
'64
' 64
'64
' 64
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
86
87.
88.
89
Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of payments .............
U
U
U
68
68
69
69
..
VIU. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . .
91. Defense Department obligations, total —
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92. Military contract awards in U.S
99. New orders defense products . .
61
62
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
63
70
70
••
70
70
70
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122.
123
125.
126
127
128.
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production OECD
production, United Kingdom
production Canada.,...
production, West Germany
production France
production Italy
production, Japan
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
..
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl. Average workweek
...... 1-month. .
9-month. .
D5. Initial claims
1-month. .
9-month..
D6. New orders
. . 1-month. .
9-month..
Dll- Capital appropriations
1-quarter. .
3-quarter. .
D19 Stock prices
D23. Industrial materials prices
D34. Profits, mfg
D35. Net sales, mfrs
D36. New orders
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month. .
6-month..
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
D48. Freight carloadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month..
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .
••
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
72
68
73
73
72
69
73
73
Mar.
Oct.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
39
39
39
39
. . 39
41
41
43
43
43
43
43
45
. . 45
55
55
48-9
48-9
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
••
-
••
••
••
'65
64
'65
'64
'64
' 65
'64
'65
'65
'64
T
L - leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
74
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