Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1962
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JUNE 1962
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH MAY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Rkhard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, JR., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L. KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L. DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
A. W. VON STRUVE, Public Information Officer
JUNE 1962
DATA THROUGH MAY
Offlc* of th« ChUf Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
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CONTENTS
Page
Important Features and Changes for This Issue
ii
Introduction
Organization and Content of the Report . . ..
Descriptions and Procedures
.„
How to Read the Time Series Charts
1
1
1
4
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1. —Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1959 to Present
5
10
13
14
17
19
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Percentage Changes for Principal Monthly and Quarterly Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared
With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks
'. . ..
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A, NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes—Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Ri$ing) Over Specified Intervals for 12 Major Economic
Activities: October 1958 to Presenjt
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, Over Specified Intervals for 4 Manufacturing Activities: October 1958 to Present
Table 6,—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified Time Spans and Percent of
Series Rising: July 1959 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing ( 2 1 Industries)
B. ( D 6 ) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries (21 Industries) ...
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks ( 2 4 Industries)
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices (13 Industrial Materials)
E. (D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
( 26 Areas)
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments (30 Industries)
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production ( 2 5 Industries)
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores ( 2 4 Types of Stores)
29
31
32
33
34
35
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4.—Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the
Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions, for Selected Series
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions, for Selected Series
Table 9.—Percent of "Specific" Peak Levels and Percent Change From "Specific" Trough
Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most
Recent Expansions, for Selected Series
,
47
52
56
57
58
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in
the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. — "Specific" Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for 55 Monthly and 9
Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Adjusted by
Bureau of the Census or NBER .
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of
Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
For safe by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, DX.
-
60
61
62
65
66
Price 40 cents
IMPORTANT FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of
business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize
the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve
additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other
series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in
this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. A n e w series showing the ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries (series 22) has been added to chart 1 and tables 1 and 2.
Z. Table 3 showing the distribution of highs in business cycle indicators has
been expanded to show the period 6 months before each of the business cycle
peaks occurring since the end of World War II. In addition, the distributions
now refer to the month of the data and not to the month in which the data became
available as was the case in the May issue. This change was made to conform
with the method of presentation in other tables of the report.
3. A column has been added to table 2 showing average percent change,
1948 to 1961, for each series.
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration with the NBER which is
responsible for much of the early research in this field. The paper, "Signals of Recession and
Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical
trends, a more detailed description of the indicators and measures used, and additional historical
data. This paper was issued as Occasional Pa.per 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research,
261 Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y , ( 2 0 7 pages, price $3) .
•*
11
Business Cycle Developments
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification .of series in thi$ report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
compa ri s on s that he lp in evaluating the cur rent
stage of the business cycle.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for about the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THE REPORT
Three types of data are shown in this report.
They are as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1 ) . —Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6). —
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( 1 ) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7-9).—
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
DESCRIPTIONS AND PROCEDURES
Business Cycle Series
The three major groups of series are those with
a fairly consistent timing relation to the business
cycle.
They are grouped, in accordance with the
NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators.
Additional series
are also included for a more complete coverage of
the national economy. The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators. —Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in, aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators. —About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production or retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series,
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—About 20 additional U.S. series
with business cycle significance are also shown.
Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus
or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for
various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several
countries which have important trade relations with
the United States are presented.
1
Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders,
durable goods industries
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
45. Average weekly insured unemployment, State
programs
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and'foods
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S, business firms
125. West Germany, index of industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted
for the series mentioned above whenever they are
published.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Charts
Time series line charts (charts 1-3) are used to
show the cyclical timing and pattern of each series.
Since various ratio and arithmetic scales are used,
rates of change are not comparable except for those
series having the same scale. See the diagram,
page 4, for additional help in using the charts.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of
business cycle contraction between reference dates
for peaks ("P H —beginnings of shaded areas) and
troughs ("T"—ends of shaded areas). The shading
for a recession period will be entered only after a
trough has been designated.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented-*—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoff s , whi ch usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises,
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express , for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time*
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how wide spread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, etc. ) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the S-^month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers pre ceded by the lette r ''D''
de signate diffusion indexe s. When one of the se
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basie series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5 ) . Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
Descriptions and Procedures
a n d D 5 8 ) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator ( D 5 8 ) , comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two
indexes on capital appropriations ( 6 0 2 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits ( 2 0 0 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers' sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 indust r i e s ) , based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" and "lows" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle
turning point.
Each month a timing distribution
is constructed which shows the number of series
reaching high (low) values during each of the recent expansion (contraction) months.
The timing
distribution is summarized by showing the number
of series reaching new highs (lows) and the percent currently high (low) for each of several recent
months (see table 3 ) .
To provide historical perspective for interpreting
the distribution of current highs, such distributions
are also shown for leading and coincident series as
they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak
of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions
and at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions, the data for
each of the 50 business cycle indicators over the
period of the current cyclical phase are scanned
each month. During a business cycle contraction,
the low value for each series is identified; during
an expansion, the high value is identified. For inverted series, that is, series with negative conformity to the business cycle, high values are taken
during contraction and low values during expansion.
If the values for 2 or more months ar0 equal, the
latest date is taken as the low (high) month. In
selecting these values, erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to identify
an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "L" is used in the basic data table
(table l ) to identify and highlight the current low
values during contraction and the letter "H", to
identify current high values during expansion* In
addition, these symbols are used to identify the low
values preceding current highs and high value's
preceding current lows. These identifications facilitate an economic interpretation of the timing
distribution since they show the month in which each
economic activity reached its low or high.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may .be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month.
In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Directiori-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables
provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly
aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show
which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
They alsohelp to show how a recession or recovery
spreads from one sectorof the economyto another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes from r e f e r ence peak levels and from reference peak dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed f r o m
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same for each expansion, the
spans from the preceding peak dates are different,
depending on the length of the contractions. This
type of comparison answers the question whether,
and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding
business cycle peak, a given number of months after
the recovery began, and how the current situation
compares in this respect with earlier recoveries.
Descriptions and Procedures
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates"] This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered, by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in
definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since
1919. The principal cases of this sort are as follows:
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for each
series7 For example, the specific peak in retail
sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak
is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is
July 1959.
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units
started (prior to 1939: Residential building
contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterlydata as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit. Supplements to wages and salaries, which are a
part of total labor cost, are not included).
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal to
100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely
HOW TO READ THE TIME SERIES CHARTS (CHARTS 1-3)
Trough of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of
ansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER
Peck of cycl* indicates end of
expansion and beginning of
ecetftjon (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
47. Industrial production
<1957*JOO)
Arabic numerals indicate latest month
for which data are plotted
fc^fl
Roman numerals indicate latest quarter for which data are plotted
50, GNP( 1954 dollars, Q
(billions of dollars)
Broken line indicates quarterly data
See back cover for complete titles
«nd sources of series
49. GNP, current dollars,
(billions of dollars)
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different.scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-V is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semi logarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
|Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
• 42
1. Average workweek, mtg.
(hours per prod, worker)
.41
h%;;.;:;
'^
• 39
• 38
2. Accession rate, mfg(per 100 employees)
i5.0
' 4.0
• 3.0
30. Nonag. placements, all Indus. < ;
(thousands)
,600 ^
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (inverted);;;!;
(per 100 employees)
IS
• 500
js
8
J400
"
1
2
<
3
75
4. Temporary layoff, all Indus
(thousands)
100
125
5* Average weekly initial claims,
unempl. insur. (inverted)
(thousands)
150
175
3
*a
200
225
250
"
-.200
-300
3
_ 400
W
_ 500
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
commitments] , ' kl *'•'•*•••***•***•* '
—n
r ' 6. New orders, durables
(billions of dollars)
18 „
16 i
14 -J
12 w
7
24. New orders, mach. and equip,
(billions of dollars)
5
9. Constr. contracts, comm. and indus.
floor area, millions of square feet)
50
45
40
I
„
*i
«
35 *
g
10. Contracts and orders; plant and equip,
(billions of dollars)
30
7
"
6*
J.
XTTV
CO
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q
W
27. Buying policy, capital expenditures (NAPA)
percent reporting commitments 6 months or longer) 1 5
75
50
25
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
(millions)
f//«
^
1.6
1,4
-* 1,0
29. Index of new building permits, private housing units
(1957-59=100)
140
120
100
\
I
80
Illllllllu t.lllllltl, ,,l,,l..l,. ..I..!..!.. ..I
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955
See "How to Read th« Tim* Series Charts," page 4.
1956 1957
1958
1959 1960
1961 1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
New businesses and business failures
+10
,12. Change, number of businesses
(thousands)
+8
+6
+4
+2
0
-1
13. New business incorporations
(thousands)
18
16
14
co
10
§
12 i
20
14. Liab. of bus. failures (inverted)
(millions of dollars) : :|
40 3
A
60 8u
80
100
120
140*
15. Large bus. failures (inverted)
(number per week)
20
30
40
50
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956
See "How to Read the Time Series Chart*/ page 4.
1957
1958
1959 1960 1961 1962
Basic Data
CHART 1
A
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
|
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
F1
T
T;
1948 TO PRESENT»Con.
(July)
(Awg.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
j
i
1 Profits and stock prices |
/"^
'
\^
%%
/
/
1^
/••"*
\**** XN
"*"
v/^*'
f*
y
T
1
1
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
f--;
1
B
16. Corp orate prc>fits, all tndus., 0 :
(billions of dollars)
A
X*^»-«^
P
,'"'S *•»-•*
** ,.^
^"""•n,
:
'••;.; : /
;. \\ >^:"**'
*
,.-%;^,;
/*
**' ^.....* ''S,' •
; N****
/*
%
~x Xx^
\^^
., /
..,,-
r^-
^v^- ^A,
:'.
y
'J '
/\
XN/
/VM^
^^
r
i
*v^
s
.;
1"'
'••;• «
^ •**\
.'
s
:
V~
Xs
j
xv
-V
180 Profits per dollar of sale s, mfg., o
(cents)
*•"*%
^"\^^- "V,
xy\
/•• - \ / A
'"*.
/*
\
s^*'
iii
'.
,.-•-
^-"•^
/***"**''
-
20 J
-
15
^
120
M
110 i
f
/* **
25 3
\***'
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. \
^^r\
-
4)
/
»/
/y
35
30
/'**
***
,
,,
< ? - . :•'•••
••
i
%< x'
'•
-
100
-
90
*•
u
—
10 ^
•
V
81
it
6
'"> '
^/""\
-"•>
\
\
v*** ,^
_4
**•».».»•" •*"" *^
v
*******
^
i
22. Rat o, profit s to inc ome orig inating,
corp orate, a 1 industries
(per cent)
s*~~***
...
:•:•:• •• ••
A
* —*xv**'*•^* \
: '
,.
*""•— *v
,^
'•
^*...*\
S
*" "^»^ 1
/*•
/*"
«*
;
_
-.
^rv^v/
y-V
l.ll.llllu
1948
iiluliitn i. i.Uitii
m
—
s^s "\
\
1949 1950
1951
/
-v^-
^\.*s
i it
1952
QA
VV
70
-
60
-
50
..
J
-
'''.-•
^s
40 «
vM
-
8
..,:, .
^
S
1 t 1
\ \
\
>.i. .!>,!„
1953 1954
$•• "How to Read the Tim* S*rUs Chortt/ page 4.
/
~3
-
nlnliiln
a
V
^^^^
^vVN^
v^X
12 j!|
10 S
-
S^^
>^
, T™^
v/^
WJ
,
•.. '
19. .Index of stock prices ^ :
(1941-43:10)
iv: '
^^
16
8
:
: V,
'Ww-^^'
-
L r t
1955 1956
1
1
1
1
1
1
ili.li.U.
1957 1958 1959
20
, ,
1960 1961
1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
Lnv
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
.'. i'f:'''-£yi ,i
'
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
r ua"--\. t.^i-,.-1M|
415
Il entory investment^ buying policy and sensitive prices |
1^
I
.
;:;:: 3,2,K Change, inventories, all indus., Q/M
-•.$&
(billions of dollars)
-M
+10
+5
0
*5
31. Inventory change,
book value,
mfg. & trade
^billions of
[dollars)
-1*12
46
0
-6
20. Change, book value,
purch. mtls.
inventories, mfg.
(billions of dollars}
H2
•M
+2
0
-2
26, Buying policy,
prod. mtls. (NAPA)1
(percent reporting
v-^*//\ commitments 60 days or longer)
^ Vfr+mm
oX/w —
§^
-4
75
i/^*\
50
25
32. Vendor performance,
Chicago PAA
(percent reporting
slower deliveries)
75
A^V
^v^
50
25
25. Change, unfilled orders, durables
Jo Mars)
(billions of dollars)
JEL
J^s*
v
+3
t2
+1
0
-1
160
140
120
23. Index of industrial materials prices
(1947~49«100)
100
80
£yi.t..l..l..Ll.M..l..l..lM^lJtJ.tuJi^
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1958
1957
1959 1960 1961
1962
5
8
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBEr? Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
JLL
(July)
P
LL
I Employment and unemployment j]
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
m r r i mr
:g
60
rH
41. Nonag. employment (establishments)
55 ,8
50
65
42. Nonag. employment (household)
(millions)
603
55 |
50
43. Unemployment rate,
total (inverted)
(percent)
3.0
4.0
5-06.0 2
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate,
married males (inverted)
(percent)
2.0
3.0
5.0 1
6.0
7.0
45. Average weekly insured
1
unemployment rate (inverted)
(percent)
3.0
4.0
\j
5.0 <
6.0 I
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising
(index, 1957=100)
120
100 2
60,
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
120
Production
47. Industrial production
(1957=100)
no
/v
100 3
90 H
80
500
475 ^
50. GNP, 1954 dollars, Q
(billions of dollars)
450 i
x'^-'
425 §
400
600
550
49. GNP, current dollars, Q>:
(billions of dollars) ; ~f
500 *
450 2
*''
400
X
550
57. Final sales, Q
(billions of dollars)
500 ^
j)
450 i
400
X
iWliL
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.
T
(July) (Apr)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
2.1
2.0
1.9
Income and trade
1.8
1.7
51. Bank debits outside N.Y.C
(trillions of dollars)
,,i
1.6 3
1.4
U
450
52. Personal income
(billions of dollars)
425
400 3
375 |
A
350
325
120
115
110
105 ?.
100 «i
95 |
90
85
53. Labor income, industrial
(billions of dollars)
A
80
20
54. Sales of retail stores, total
(billions of dollars)
19
18 ^
16 !
\
15
14
110
55. Wholesale prices (excl. farm and food)
(index, 1957-59=100)
;
100 3
Wholesale prices }
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953
1954
Digitized$*•
for "How
FRASER
to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
90 1
80
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
P
T
|Investment expenditures!
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
! '61. New plant and equip, expenditures, Q
(billions of dollars}
uaoor cost
COST per
per unit cof output, mfg.
62. Labor
(index, 1947-49=100)
Cost per unit of output
63. Labor cost per unit of output, total GNP
(index, 1947-49=100)
64. Mfrs. inventories, total
'billions of dollars)
Inventories I
65. Mfrs. inventories, finished
(billions of dollars)
•
'
66. Consumer installment debt
(billions of dollars)
67. Bank rate, short-term business loans, Q ;;,f:
(percent)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
Last 2 quarters are anticipated.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT»Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
2.0
86. Exports, excl. military
(billions of dollars),
U
.1.4
1.2
1.0
87. Imports, general j
(billions of dollars)!.
1.6
U
S
1.2 J
1,0 «
.8
+1.0
+.8
Merchandise trade balance
(billions of dollars)
0
-.2
+ 1.0
89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-)
in U.S. balance of payments, Q
,i V (billions of dollars) i : r;:j
III
MJ
rT
V /
^'
+.5
-1.0
-1.5
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Chart*/ page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
li
82. Payments to the public
(billions of dollars) J>
[ Federal) budget ond military obli
83. Receipts from the public
(billions of dollars)
, 84. Cash surplus or deficit
(billions of dollars) A j;
L Surplus or deficit on
Federal income and product
account (billions of dollars}
tl
90. Military obligations, procurement
(billions of dollars)
/I
91. Military obligations, total
(billions of dollars) : I,
92. Military contract awards in U.S.
(billions of dollars) • ' " -
-J .5
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
Solid lines indicate 3-month average; latest data for 3-month moving average ploned one month behind seasonally adjusted data.
See
to Read the Time Series Charts,* page 4
Digitized
for"How
FRASER
16
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
85. Change in money supply
(percent)
+.8
+.4
.1
-.4
93. Free reserves
(billions of dollars)
+.6
+.4
+.2 <
120
81. Index of consumer prices
(1957-59=100)
110
3
100 -s
$
Miscellaneous
90
80
160
140
120
94. Construction contracts, total value
(index, 1957-59« 100)
100 «
•i
60
40
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Redd the Tim* Series Charts/ page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes
. o. E. c. a
I;'
(1953=100) "™
122. United Kingdom
(1953*100)
.* 47. United States^;
;;
1951
T952
1962
1
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ pdge
(i957«ioo)
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes-con.
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
220
200
180
125. West Germany
(1953=100)] :
160
3
140
I
120
325
300
275
250
225
200
3
175 |
150
125
100
220
200
180
160
3
140
1
120
220
200
180
160
140
120
5J
1
100
80
60
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
19
Basic Data
Table 1.--BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated lay CD and current highs are indicated by E;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4j 5> 14) 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes11 on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators
1 . Average
workweek,
production
workers ,
manufacturing
Year and
month
(Hours per
prod . wkr . )
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural
placements,
all industries
3. Layoff
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees )
4. Number of
persons on
temporary
layoff, all
industries1
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs
6. Value of
manufacturers ' new
orders, durable goods
• industries
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous . )
40.1
40.2
40.4
40.7
40.7
40.5
4.1
4.3
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.2
478
490
509
516
512
523
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
120
119
113
101
116
121
292
284
258
244
246
258
13.90
14.92
15.32
15.80
15.24
16.13
40.2
40.3
40.1
40.0
39.9
40.3
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.1
5.3
527
501
516
492
512
510
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.7
2.4
1.9
125
155
150
93
159
138
264
291
271
311
351
275
15.49
13.97
14.75
15.10
13.72
14.77
40.4
40.1
39.9
39.8
40.1
39.9
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
506
535
513
504
494
482
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
122
110
116
156
160
145
281
271
303
294
316
322
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
39.9
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.3
©38.5
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
©3.3
460
488
473
460
475
444
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.9
177
154
153
166
128
179
335
363
351
373
385
381
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13,22
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.7
39.8
39.9
4.0
3.8
53 4.6
4.4
4.2
3.9
443
444
474
©433
481
494
2.9
© 2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
193
© 220
215
137
151
147
393
© 429
371
370
357
331
© 12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14.79
14.90
40.0
40.0
39.6
40.2
40.6
40.4
4.0
4.1
3.7
4.4
4.0
3.3
470
529
491
530
565
526
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1,8
2.1
351
315
329
307
307
305
15.02
15.63
15.74
16.07
16.10
16.24
39.8
40.3
40.5
IE 40.8
p40.6
4.4
4.1
r4.3
P4-2
(NA)
568
548
575
576
®602
1.9
1.9
rl.6
&P1.6
(NA)
312
285
273
0270
300
2
288
IE 16.43
16.19
r!6.00
r!5.80
P15.79
(Thous . )
(Thous . )
(Bil. dol.)
1959
February
March
April
May
July
October
December
I960
February
March
April
May
July
December
1961
March
April
May
July
,
October
99 '
138
123
111
111
123
1962
March
April
May
177
080
117
r!07
118
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended June 9, 1962.
20
Basic Data
Table I.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continuad
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by S3;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover. "rtt Revised. t(p" Preliminary.
NHER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1959
February
March
April
May, ,
July
August, . « * , . « , »
November
24. Value of
rafrs' new
ordero, machinery and
equipment
industries
9. Constr.
contracts
awarded for
commercial
and Indus,
buildings
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
10. Contracts and
orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly
27. Buying
policy, cap,
approved
capital ap- expend., pet
propriations, reporting
commitments
602 mfg.
corporations 6 months
and over*
( Percent
(Bil. dol,,) (Bil. dol.) reporting)
4.46
4.73
4.97
4.80
4. 35
5.11
31.93
32.16
35.11
41.92
38.55
34.19
4-91
5.21
5.57
5.35
5.40
5.68
5.16
4.85
5.02
5.12
4.99
5.37
37.64
34.14
38.38
41.44
36.03
39.44
5.72
5.25
5.62
5.73
5-58
5.92
5.04
5.14
5-06
5.12
5.17
5.01
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5-58
4.78
4.96
4.87
© 4.65
4.81
4.66
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5.27
5.39
5.30
4.79
4.80
5.10
4.99
5.17
5.30
35.18
36.90
38.16
©35.09
35.89
37.32
5.52
5.50
5.64
5.51
5.73
5.92
5.28
5.55
5.45
5.59
5.74
5.48
35.67
39.79
38.36
33.42
42.22
41.54
5.80
6.13
5.93
6.13
6.41
6.04
05.78
5.71
r5.59
r5.48
P5.45
37.72
44.72
EI46.09
39.93
(NA)
6.31
®6.u
r6.40
p6.10
(NA)
2.16
2.36
2.46
2.51
7. New private perm,
nonfarm
dwelling
units
started
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized,
loc, bldg.
permits
12. Net
change in
bus iness
population,
operating
businesses
(Ann. rate
thous . )
(1957-59«100)
( Thous . )
41
43
42
49
49
50
1,542
1,503
1,567
1,568
1,546
1,532
114.1
118.7
122.8
115.5
112.9
113.3
49
53
54
49
55
49
1,555
1,450
1,498
1,360
1,350
1,451
108.9
109.3
106.0
99.9
99.4
105.3
55
50
46
50
46
50
1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
45
47
43
39
38
©37
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
91.4
©87.1
40
39
45
45
41
38
1,098
1,115
1,262
1,143
1,268
1,351
88.7
88.8
91.6
91.8
92.3
96.9
45
47
46
39
39
47
1,318
1,301
1,365
1,404
1,328
1,257
97.7
100.4
96.8
102.6
101.9
110.7
r+19
+20
r+19
r+18
1960
March
April
May
July
Augus t
,.
**
October. . . . * . , .
1961
January
April
May.
.» . ,
Julv
August. , « . . . * . .
September
October
November
December
».
1962
February. „
March.. ..,..,,.
April
May
June
,
2.27
2.02
© 1.79
2.19
1.87
1.90
2.21
r2.l6
E2.38
41
047
44
46
39
1,247
1,134
r 1,407
rl,517
0pl,573
104.2
0113.5
105.7
112.9
p!06.2
r+19
i+17
r+U
r+10
©r+6
r+10
rHO
+10
[g]r+ll
21
Basic Data
Table I.--BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by El ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). • Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover. "rtt Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
13. Number
of new
business
incorporations
14. Current 15. Business 16. Corpoliabilities failures
rate profits
of business with liaafter taxes
failures
bilities of
$100,000 and
over
(Mil. dol.)
(Number per
week)
16,346
16,255
16,548
16,604
16,296
15,204
68.75
53.26
60.23
63.08
48.96
51.25
29
27
25
26
27
22
15,658
15,813
15,728
15,383
15,695
15,959
54.47
54.50
61.51
55.98
56.01
64.04
27
32
25
24
29
30
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
29
27
30
30
32
36
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,240
14,281
14,167
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
38
36
43
© 43
37
41
© 13,492
14,601
14,658
15,327
15,225
15,342
80.16
84.45
111.36
79.07
84.09
87,05
38
42
40
39
41
41
15,539
15,213
15,419
016,286
16,149
15,818
80.52
99.41
124.11
74.04
112.36
[3 68.94
41
35
40
43
39
38
15,124
15,809
15,713
15,402
(NA)
104.72
87.36
71.20
111.67
95.62
37
IH132
37
38
37
( Number )
1959
March
April
May.
Julv
September
(Ann. rate
bil, dol.)
23.4
26,1
22.7
22.7
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index
(1947-49=100)
103.0
103.8
103.4
105.1
106.2
105.4
104.4
103.9
103.0
102.4
101.4
]'J4.3
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
(Cents)
22. Ratio,
profits to
income
originating,
Corp., all
industries
(Percent )
8.9
10.1
9.8
10.9
8.4
9.5
8.1
9.4
8.8
9.8
8.0
9.4
7.8
8.8
7.3
8.7
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
(1941-43=10)
55.62
54.77
56.15
57.10
57.96
57.46
59.74
59.40
57.05
57.00
57.23
59.06
I960
March
April
May
July
24.2
23.3
21.7
21.4
105.0
104.2
104.0
103.6
104.0
103.8
104.6
104.5
102.7
102.9
102 -.6
102.2
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.4?
56.80
1961
March
April
May
July
August
November
© 20.0
22.8
23.8
026.5
101.9
101.6
(t)101.2
102.0
103.2
103.3
104.7
0105.8
104.2
104.8
104-6
105.2
©6.6
©8.2
7.6
9.1
7.9
9.3
E"i8.7
010.1
8.1
9.6
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
IE 71.74
1962
February. . . . . * *
March
ApriJ.
May
June
18, 1962.
25.9
r!04.8
r!04.4
r!03.8
r!03 .4
p!03.9
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
1
55.74
22
Basic Data
Toble I.--BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by tin asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by GO ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5> 14; 15? 40, 43s 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators —Continued
21. Change in
bus . inventories, farm
and nonfarm,
after val.
ad jmt .
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
Tear and
month
31. Change in
book value,
of rafg. and
trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
20. Change in
book value of
mf rs . ' inventories,
purchased
material
(Arm. rate
Bil. dol.)
25. Change,
32. Vendor
26. Buying
23. Index of
policy, pro- performance, manufacturers industrial
duct . mat Is . , percent
unfilled or- materials
pet. report, reporting
ders, durable pricesw
commitments
slower
goods indus60 days plus* deliveries*
tries
(Percent
(Percent
report ing ) (Bil. dol.) (1947-49=100)
reporting)
1959
February
March
April
May
June ..»..*»....
+7.1
+11.7
July,
+0.7
October* .......
November
+5.6
+3.5
+6.2
+6.6
+14.1
+8.7
+11.4
+2.4
+2.4
+3.3
+3.5
+4.1
+6.1
60
66
65
68
71
66
58
62
62
62
62
62
+0.88
+1.03
+0.86
+0.47
-0.17
+0.10
89.0
88.9
90.4
91.2
91.9
92.2
+6.4
-0.2
-5.1
+0.6
-2.5
+12.3
+0.3
-2.5
-5.2
-3.2
+0.5
+2.4
67
64
72
66
66
67
60
62
64
64
56
50
-0.13
+0.02
+0.45
+0.64
-0.0$
-0.12
92.2
92-6
93,9
94-5
94.6
93.7
+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
64
64
56
61
55
57
44
30
© 27
28
32
34
-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
94.4
93.2
91.5
92.8
93.0
91.7
-1.5
+0.4
-0.6
+2.4
-2.1
-6.2
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4
54
50
49
50
50
©48
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.50
-0.43
90.8
91.3
90.4
89.0
88.0
©86.5
-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
51
49
50
57
54
56
38
40
40
47
48
48
+0.01
-0.02
-0.11
+0.42
+0.23
+0.07
86.9
88.7
92.1
93.0
[y]93*3
90,3
+4.5
+1.8
El +7. 8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3
56
55
57
59
59
54
49
52
55
55
51
53
+0.49
+0.22
-0.03
+0.33
+0.25
+0.28
90.9
92.0
91.9
91.4
88.4
90.2
56
[356
55
48
46
E+1.19
+0.24
r-0.37
r-0.23
p-0.61
91.9
89.9
89.7
87.9
87.3
"85. 5
I960
February. ......
March
Apr3 1 ..........
May
,..,
+10.9
+5.4
July. ..........
+2.4
October
November
-1.9
1961
February. ,,»..,
March
*. . ,
April
©-4.0
,.,
+2.8
May
June
a
July
August
September
+4.5
+5.3
1962
February
March
April
May
S+6.8
,....
....
0
14, 1962.
+7.6
+6.3
r+4.2
p+2.9
(NO
IS +5.0
+2.2
r+2.9
p+1.6
(NO
57
E| 61
56
55
49
Basic Data
23
Table 1.--BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continoed
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
and current highs are indicated by QD ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, U, 15, 40, 43, 45). - Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised. w p n Preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
1959
February
March
April,
May. ...........
July
October
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total
nonagricultural employment ,
labor force
survey1
43. -Unemployment
rate, total1
(Thous.)
(Thous . )
(Percent )
40. Unemployment
rate,
married
males1
(Percent)
45. Average 46. Index of 47. Index of
weekly in- he Ip -wanted industrial
sured unem- advertising production
in newsployment
rate, State papers
programs
(Percent) ,
(1957=100)
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(Arm. rate
(1957=100) , , Bil. dol.)
52,446
52,612
52,843
53,328
53,606
53,779
59,016
58,974
59,337
59,520
59,668
59,752
5*97
5.91
5,63
5.23
5,09
5.04
4.09
4.06 '
3.69
3.22
3.24
3.12
4.94
4.66
4.32
3.95
3.62
3.53
84.9
91.9
96.7
102.8
102.0
105.6
100.3
101.9
103.6
106.6
109.2
109.6
53,879
53,357
53,413
53,353
53,622
54,116
60,108
60,103
59,925
60,225
59,741
60,465
5.15
5.32
5.56
5.72
5.77
5.41
3.28
3.39
3.68
3.70
4.24 !
3.36 ,
3-72
4.11
4.15
4.78
5.51
4.76
108.8
105.5 .
105.1
103.2
104.8
103.5
107.6
103.6
103.2
102.0102.6
108.8
54,211
54,445
54,427
£4,702
54,584
54,538
60,436
60,875
60,488
61,132
61,371
61,293
5.29
4.91
5.38
5.17
5.14
5.44
3.35
3.02
3.48
3.34
3.36
3.61
4-27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
111.1
109.6
109.1
108.7
109.7
109.4
61,133
61,035
60,996
. 60,758
61,210
©60,635
5.44
5-75
5.70
6.14
6.18
6.65
3.70
3.95
3.83
4.32
4.46
4.73
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
109.4
108.3
106.7
106.1
104.5
103.0
53,581
CD 53, 485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
60,852
60,922
61,274
61,101
61,234
61,543
6.65
6.91
6.76
6.93
© 7.02
6.86
4.72
©4.91
4.65
4.88
4.89
4.77
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
102.3
©102.1
102.6
105.6
108.3
110.4
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492
61,371
61,417
61,188
61,369
61,840
61,618
6.87
6.81
6.86
6.66
6.11
6.00
4.71
4.77
4.60
4.19
4.23
3.90
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.041
5. OS
4.81
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
112.0
113.0
111.0
112.8
114.1
• 114.8
54,434
54,773
r54,901
r55,229
Hp55,291
61,690
62,206
62,280
r62,236
062,775
5.82
5.58
•5.45
5.54
E5.43
3.80
3.40
3.47
r3.72
(HJ3.37
4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
S3. 82
2
4.27
102.3
105.9
0106.3
106.1
106.0
113.5
rl!4.8
rl!5.6
rl!7.0
®pl!7.6
422.1
434.4
426.6
430.7
I960
April
May
June
julv
September
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707 '
441.0
443.4
440.2
438.4
1961
February
March
April
May
July
August
October
December. ......
1962
February
March
ApriJL
May
:
©433.2
445.5
451.8
464.6
(H468.2
'•Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
s
Week ended June 2, 1962.
Basic Data
24
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by QD and current highs are indicated by GH[| >
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, KJ 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexesh on the back cover, "r" Revised. npfl Preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Continued
Year and
month
49. Gross
national
product in
current
dollars
57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)
51. Bank
debits outside NYC,
343 centers
52. Personal
income
53. Labor
income in
mining, mfg.,
and construction
54. Sales of
retail
stores
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except farmproducts and
foods
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,577.3
1,609.4
1,627.7
1,656.1
1,638.3
1,639.2
371.7
373.9
378.4
381.9
384.9
386.9
99.9
100.7
103.3
105.1
106.7
107.6
17,455
17,575
17,914
17,953
18,222
18,189
100,4
481.6
1,685.6
1,658.8
:., 654.1
488.3
482.7
1,668.0
1,692.9
1,699.6
387.1
383.7
384.5
384.2
388.7
393.7
106.7
103.5
103.8
102.8
104.2
107.5
18,296
18,110
17,784
18,341
17,842
17,485
101.5
101.4
101.5
101.5
101.5
101.5
501.5
490.5
506.4
501.0
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
395.4
395.4
395.8
401.4
403.6
404.4
109.0
108.5
107.9
108.2
109.2
108.7
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
August
505.1
502.7
October
November
504.5
506.4
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
404.7
405.2
405.5
406.4
406.0
404.0
108.4
107.3
107.0
106.6
105.4
103.4
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
101.3
101. 3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
©500.8
©504.8
516.1
513.2
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
I, 824.0
403.6
©403.11
405.5
409.8
413.2
417.3
103.4
©102.8
103.7
106.3
107.7
109.9
©17,773
17,795
18,127
17,860
17,995
18,199
101.0
101.0
101.0
100.9
100.8
100.7
525.8
521.3
542.2
537.0
418.6
419.4
421.1
425.2
429,3
431.8
110.2
109.8
109.7
110.8
112.3
112.1
18,026
18,181
18,141
18,587
19,107
18,836
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.6
100.8
100.9
0548.3
S541.6
430.1
433.3
435.9
r438.9
0P440.0
110.8
112.7
113.3
rl!5.5
IBJpll5.5
18,845
18,974
r 19, 276
(H)rl9,6l2
p!9,451
100.8
100.6
©100.6
100.7
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
472.2
465.2
438.5
476.8
482.3
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
(1957-59^100)
1959
March
April
Mav
* .. . .
August. . o . „ » . . .
October. * . » . . . .
Novembere
December. ......
I960
January
February
March
April
May
1961
January. , . . „ . . ,
February. . .s . . ,
March. .........
April
May
July
October. .......
November.
December
1962
January
February
April
May
1
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
2,010.7
1,916.7
1,986.8
®r2,046.5
P2,017.4
1
100. a
101.0
101.2
101.5
101.4
iHiioo.a
g
H)G.B
Excludes stepped-up rate of payments and special payments of government life insurance dividends to veterans in
March
1961 ($1.8 billion) and July 1961 ($2.6 billion), respectively.
3
Week ended June 12, 1962.
25
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
and current highs are indicated by OHj
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3> 4> 5> 14* 15i 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion indexes'1 on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment, total
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
62. Index of
wage and
salary cost
per unit of
output, total mfg.
(1947-49=100)
63. Index of
labor cost
per unit
of output,
total GNP
(1947-49=100)
64. Book
value of
mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg.
industries
66. Consumer
65. Book
value , mfrs . ' installment
inventories
debt, end of
month
of finished
goods, all
mfg. indus.
(Bil. dol.)
* (Bil. dol.)
49.5
49.9
50.5
51.1
51.6
52,1
18.8
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.3
33,391
33,763
34,171
34,609
35,064
35,558
52.2
52,1
51.9
51.5
51.6
52.4
19.3
19.4
19.6
19.6
19.7
20.1
36,093
36,704
37,271
37,785
38,203
38,534
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
38,897
39,366
39,773
40,303
40,608
40,907
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
41,175
41,401
41,627
41,799
41,961
42,079
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
42,070
41,993
41,980
41,873
41,885
41,885,
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
©41,857
41,901
41,887
42,068
42,368
42,632
55.7
56.2
56.6
EP56.8
(NO
22.1
22.1
22.2
©p22.3
(NO
42,847
43,083
43,352
043,869
(NO
(Mil. dol.)
67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
1959
r30.60
March
April
May
r32.50
July
September
October
33.35
r33.60
121.4
120.7
121.3
119.6
118.4
119.3
120.4
120.9
122.1
122.5
123.7
120.2
135.5
136.4
139.1
138.7
4.51
4.87
5.27
5.36
I960
February
March
April
May
36.30
July
August
35.90
35.15
October. . . * . . . *
35.50
119.6
120.5
120.8
121.3
120.9
121.2
120.4
120.4
122.3
122.5
122.8
123.1
139.1
140,4
142.1
141.9
5.34
5.35
4.97
4.99
1961
March. .........
April
May
33.85
Q33.50
July
September. . . * . .
October
December
1962
February. ......
March
April
May
34.70
35.40
[H135.70
^6.95
237.70
^•Anticipated.
3rd quarter, anticipated.
g
123 v 7
124.0
124.1
123.0
121.3
120.9
119.3
©118.2
120.1
119.4
119.8
119.2
rl!9.8
rl20.0
r!20.3
(Erl20.9
P120.6
142.7
©142. 5
143.3
142.3
0143.6
4.97
©4.97
El 4.99
4.96
4-98
26
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
and current highs are indicated by OB;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14* 15, 40, 43, 45). • Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised. Mp" Preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports, 87. General
excluding
imports,
military aid total
shipments,
total
Year and
month
88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 82. Federal
receipts (+) cash payor payments ments to
(-) in U.S. the public
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)
1959
January * * « . « * * *
1,164.6
+153.9
1,318.5
February. ..<>*.«
+97.6
1,292.1
-841
1,194.5
March. ,..,.**..
1,300.9
1,213.5
+87.4
April ....,,.,.,
1,296.8
1,210.3
+86.5
1
May
,
1,326.6
+13.7
-1,061
1,312.9
1,311.7
+34.2
1,345.9
Julv
1,394.6
1,429.2
1,498.8
1,335.2
1,380.7
1,497.2
1,251.1
1,298.3
1,407.9
1,200.5
1,298.6
1,333.2
+143.5
+130.9
+90.9
+134.7
+82.1
+164.0
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
'+390. 3
+357.3
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+435.8 ,
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,6^6.1
February
1,736.4
March
1,711.1
April
1,658.3
May. ......... t . 1,577.0
June . . ....... » . 1,594.9
1,150.9
1,146.1
1,158.4
1,159.0
1,155.2
1,177.2
+495.2
+590.3
+552.7
+499.3
+421.8
+417.7
Julv
„ .,
August. .,.*»*.»
September
October
,.,
1,668.0
1,659.7
1,667.8
1,772.9
1,716.3
1,719.2
1,366.4
1,261.3
1,280.3
1,322.4
1,310.7
1,296.5
+301.6
+398.4
+387.5
+450.5
+405.6
+422.7
1,660.0
rl, 852.1
rl, 632.1
1,794.6
(NA)
1,320.1
1,314.1
1,336.1
1,374.2
(NA)
+339.9
r+538.0
r+296.0
+420 .A
(NA)
October. . *
December
I960
January
*
March
April. ...*..,.*
May
July.. .,..«,...
October
December
1961
-1,173
-668
-620
-763
-1,112
2
-l,434
r-319
3
r+176
r-910
r-1,408
83. Federal 84. Federal 95. Surplus(+)
cash surplus or deficit (-),
cash receipts from or deficit Federal income and
the public
product
account
(Arm. rate
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.) Bil. dol.)
(Ann. rato
(Arm . rate
Bil. dol.) Bil. dol.)
100.0
96.0
92.7
96.4
95.1
96.2
81.5
84.9
76.8
87.2
86.0
81.2
-IS 5
-11.1
-15.9
-9.2
-9.1
-15.0
97.0
96.2
93.2
92.9
99.9
91.2
89.4
92.4
95.7
88.3
96.6
98.8
-7.6
-3.8
+2.5
-4.6
-3.3
+7.6
89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94-4
91.9
89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.3
96.0
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
103.3
100.4
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
+1.0
+4.4
96.8
95.4
107.2
100.7
110.9
105.4
93.1
93.2
89.1
98.0
102.2
95.3
-3.7
-2.2
-18.1
-2.7
-8.7
-10.1
•97.5
114.0
101.8
111.1
107.3
103.8
90.3
104.0
100.8
99.1
103.9
102.8
-7.2
-10.0
-1.0
-12.0
-3.4
-1.0
116.1
108.7
107.3
110.2
p!07.0
100.0
99.9
93.8
109.5
P113.2
-16,1
-8.8
-13.5
-0.7
p+6.2
-2.7
+0.5
-2.5
-2.4
+6.5
+4.5
+1.4
+0.4
-5.5
-4.3
-3.1
-2.0
1962
February. ..«*..
April
May
June
;„. . „
r-476
'•Excludes U.S. subscription to International Monetary Fund of $1,375 million in gold and securities.
^Includes single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
-2.4
27
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs are indicated by fiTI j
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, *43, 45) • Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
92. Military
prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,330
1,362
1,371
1,398
1,381
1,425
3,538
3,601
3,739
3,620
3,569
3,863
1,465
1,916
1,772
1,762
1,513
1,905
40.28
+0.28
+0.28
+0.14
+0.28
+0.14
-59
-48
-140
-259
-319
-513
101.0
101.0
100.9
101.0
101.2
101.4
98
95
110
118
103
114
1,202
870
1,319
1,517
;,124
929
3,729
3,263
3,906
3,802
3,608
3,160
2,249
1,986
1,931
2,123
2,289
1,320
+0.35
-0.35
0.00
-0.28
-0.14
-0.49
-556
-536
-493
-459
-433
-424
101.6
101.7
101.9
102.2'
102.2
102.3
115
102
106
110
92
97
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,373
1,269
3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
-0.14
-0.21
-0.28
-0.07
-0.43
-0.36
-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
+37
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
93
93
100
105
97
108
2,866
1,230
1,206
998
1,559
1,239
5,305
3,824
3,926
3,299
4,109
3,671
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
+0.14
+0.07
+0.50
+0. 14
-0.28
+0.14
+120
+247
+414
+480
+614
+669
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
113
109
107
117
111
120
1,306
1,476
1,163
1,089
1,117
1,238
3, $21
3,976
3,552
3,449
3,600
3,723
1,944
2,153
1,774
1,882
1,501
1,888
+0.14
+0.43
+0.21
+0.35
0.00
+0.07
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
103.9
104.0
104.1
103.9
104.0
104.0
108
95
104
103
102
111
1,671
2,237
1,864
1,436
1,372
1,891
4,314
5,344
4,785
4,191
4,121
4,681
2,066
2,389
2,127
2,847
2,500
2,153
-0.07
-0.14
+0.85
+0.49
+0.28
+0.56
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
104.3
104.4
104.5
104.4
104.4
104.4
110
116
103
114
116
119
1,912
1,147
1,150
1,904
(NA)
4.449
3,899
3,914
4,491
(NA)
3,429
2,121
2,230
(NA)
-0.21
-0.14
+0.21
+0.69
p-0.27
+546
+434
+379
r+44-0
P+433
104.6
104.9
105.2
105.2
(NA)
115
119
131
121
(NA)
85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money supply
( Percent )
93. Free
reserves*
81. Index of
consumer
prices
(Mil. dol.) (1957-59-100)
94. Index of
construction
contracts,
total value
(1957-59-100)
1959
March
April
May
July
September
October
December
I960
February
March
April
May
July
October
1961
March
April
May
July
August
November
1962
February
March
April
May
Basic Data
28
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
and current highs are indicated by SI;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4» 5> H> 15, 40, 43, 45). - Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are
shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, nrn Revised, "p" Preliminary,
International
1
121. OECD,
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
Year and
month
(1953^100)
1959
January. ......*
March
April
May
July
August. . * *
September
November. . » » « * .
December. * ,
I960
,
May
105
108
107
108
141
143
145
147
150
T53
121
122
124
126
126
128
107
106
108
110
108
10Q
1^1
128
128
129
131
111
110
111
108
108
108
155
15A
1 57
„
156
157
September. * ....
October
December
1961
January
February. ,
March. ... ,
April
May.
Julv. * « . » « » * . . .
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February.
ApriJ.
May
June
(1953=100) (1957=100)
115
ll*j
117
118
118
120
155
July
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
134
136
139
139
139
141
152
March
April
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
131
130
130
131
131
131
127
129
129
130
129
132
107
107
107
i no
133
111
1 13
1 1/
rl6B
168
16?
(NA)
1
128. Japan,,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-100) (1953^100)
(1953^100)
(1953=100)
(1955'-100)
151
149
148
15A
1^2
1S2
156
1 57
1 5Q
1 ^L
ISA
153
1 5/
1 ^2
1S9
IS/
160
163
161
1 58
161
1^5
181
184
188
168
1 7*i
171
196
1 73
POP
106
107
108
108
107
107
159
162
163
162
161
164
129
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
105
129
131
1 33
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
104
158
158
159
160
162
163
162
164
16*1
1 A5
comparisons of industrial production
1 OQ
~] r)/L
1 OS
1 3fi
J.JU
(VSh \
\N&
)
11 A
11 A
T5ft
108
161
IDA
103
102
103
164
167
169
170
1 OQ
1 7*5
111
110
TOP
i nq
110
173
1 77
170
i AA
167
178
1 7O
TAQ
1 AQ
i rto
1QQ
17ft
1#O
108
160
1 O7
106
104
182
103
186
•t t>c
i An
180
i8ft^
1
,3
173
178
1Q?
PO5
O1 T
1 an
1 7Q
"
i st/
m
1 S3
1 ftA
1 ft5
1io4
ft/
l Sft
1 ftft
PI 5
01 ft
01 ft
ooo
^*d<
noc
*A?
OOQ
«4V
5^y
*J?4
oqe
fc^5
O/ O
<4-3
5 jC
^45
i f)P
1Q3
1QQ
1 03
1 rji
1 Q?
1 ft7
1 ftO
1 op
1 A5
1 #3
rlQ7
1Q7
O71
1 «Jy
T tty
1 A^
J,op
1 ftft
r200
T»I on
«rtO
i oft
112
1 1 -a
111
113
186
i on
l^U
1 S7
1Q>
1 QO
iy/c
1 QO
iy<
TO17
11Q
11
14t
1
i
Te
115
11£
r!97
198
(NA)
1 1 r>r
11
-IT C
1 7^
157
160
162
168
102
l-O
0rgani2ation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
158
158
10Q
110
110
1 Pft
1 oc
1 57
100
102
104
107
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
TIC
1 i rt
T QA
rlyO
200
/MA
^
(NA;
1 7Q
17Q
«"| QQ
1 ftO
•pi QT
O/ ft
ri,yj
457
T*9fl3
Y*pno
r»?l ^
192
QT £
<lo
/MA ^
(NA)
194
/ VTA \
(NA)
Ojjry
*3fi'7
1 Qf\
iyu
T O1
iyi
193
193
f\ i rt
*;4o
r>l Q/
r?l 5
^57
oAA
Q*7r7
282
Qrt >
^84
290
294
294
295
292
298
/MA \
(NA)
Analytical Measures
29
Table 2.-PERCENTAGE CHANGES FOR PRINCIPAL MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY SERIES
Those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls, are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percentage
changes are calculated in the usual way, but the signs are reversed to facilitate interpretations of the cyclical
movements; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Selected monthly series
Msnthly percent changes
Avg.
pet.
1962
1961
chan^,
1948- July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Apr. May
Jan.
Feb. Mar.
19611 to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
Apr. May June2
Sept. Oct.
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Aug.
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
mflnufacturintr*
•*. * t . - t . t f * * * * * * . . * * * * 0.5
6.0
30. Nonagri cultural placements, all industries.. 3.4
11.9
5- Average weekly initial claims for unemploy-r
ment insurance, State programs (inverted).. 7.0
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
goods industries. .......................... 5.6
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin6.1
9. .Construction contracts awarded for commer.*
cial and industrial bldgs., floor space.*.* 12.4
0.0
+2.5
+12.6
+24.0
-1.0
-9.8
-7.2
-15.8
+1.5
+18.9
+7.9
+22.7
+10.3
-4.4
+6.7
+1.0
-9.1
+6.6
-5.9
-0.5
-5.0
-6.9
-16.7
-1.5 +1.3 +0.5 +0.7 -0.5
NA
+15.8 -6.8 +4.9 -2.3
+8.0 -3.5 +4.9 +0.2 +4.5
NA
+9.5 0.0 +15.8 0.0
0.0 +0.7
-2.3 +8.7 +4.2 +1.1 -11.1
+4.1
+0.7 +2.1 +0.2
+0.9 +1.2
+5.1
-1.8 +2.6 +2.7
-4.5 +5.5 -1.2
+11.6
-3.6 -12.9 +26.3 -1.6
-1.5 -1.2
-9.2 +18.6
-1.3
+4.0
-0.1
-2.1 -2.0 -0.5
+3.1 -13.4
M
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling
4.1 -1.3 +4.9
+2.9 -5.4 -5.3 -0.8
-9.1 +24.1
+7.8 +3.7
29. Index of new private housing units author3.9
13. Number of n^w business incorporation? . , f T.. „ . 3.0
H. Current liabilities of business failures
16.3
0.9
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.,.. 2.6
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
11.3
2.2
+2.8 -3.6 +6.0 -0,7 +8.6 -5.9 +8.9
-2.1 +1.4 +5.6 -0.8 -2.0 -4.4 +4.5
-6.9 +6.8 -5.9
NA
-0.6 -2.0
-23.5 -24.8 +40.3 -51.8 +38.6 -51.9 +16.6 +18.5 -56.8 +14.4
+1.1 -1.5 +0.6 -0.2 +0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 +0.5
+3.6 -0.8 +1.1 +4.5 +0.9 -3.7 +1.7 +0.1 -3.2 -7.4 -11.5
+6.1 +5.8 0.0 -7.3 +3.9 +5.7
+1.2 -0.1 -0.5 -3.3 +2.0 +1.9
0.0 -1.8 -12.7
-2.2 -0.2 -2.0
-4.2
-0.7
+0.6
+0.1
-2.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
0.4
0.0 -0.1 +0.1 +0.3
-0.1
-0.1
+0.2
+0.6
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labof
40.
45.
46.
51.
53.
55-
0.4 +0.1 -0.4 +0.3 +0.8 -0.4 +0,1 +0.8 +0.1 -0.1 +0.9
4.7 +0.9 -0.7 +2.9 +8.3 +1.8 +3.0 +4.1 +2.3 -1.7 +2.0
Unemployment rate, married males, (inverted) 5.8 -1.3 +3.6 +8.9 -1.0 +7.8 +2.6 +10.5 -2.1 -7.2 +9.4
Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
5.6 +1.3 +2.3 +1.2 -0.8 +5.3 +2.1 +4.0 +2.4 +10.9 +2.8 -11.8
Index of help-wanted advertising in news3,3 +4.2 -1.5 +13.1 +3.3 -2.2 +5.6 +3.5 +0.4 -0.2 -0.1
1.3 +0.9 -1.8 +1.6 +1,2 +0.6 -1.1 +1.1 +0.7 +1.2 +0.5
1.6 -0.4 +0.8 +3.1 0.0 +0.7 +4.9 -4.7 +3.7 •+3.0 -1.4
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.
0.7 +0.2 +0.4 +1.0 +1.0 +0.6 -0.4 +0.7 +0.6 +0.7 +0.3
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
1.1 -0.4 -0.1 +1.0 +1.4 -0.2 -1.2 +1.7 +0.5 +1.9 0.0
1.6 +0.9 -0.2 +2.5 +2.8 -1.4 0.0 +0.7 +1.6 +1.7 -0.8
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
0.3 0.0 +0.1 -0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
0.8
64, Book value of manufacturers' inventories,
all manufacturing industries
0.9
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing indus..., 1.0
66. Cnnsum«r ins ^Ailment- debt, en<i <rf innrith, , . , , 1.2
See footnotes at end of table.
-0.9 +1.6
-0.6 +0.3
-0.5 +0.5 +0.2 +0.3 +0.5
-0.2
+0.9
+0.7 +0.7 +0.4 +0.4
+0.7 +0.4
NA
+0.9
+0.1
+0.5 +0.5 0.0 +0.5 +0.5 0.0 +0.5 +0.5
0.0 +0.4 +0.7 +0.6 +0.5 +0.6 +0.6 +1.2
NA
NA
+0.9 +0.9
30
Analytical Measures
Table 2.-PERCENTAGE CHANGES FOR PRINCIPAL MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY SERIES-Continued
Those aeries that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls, are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percentage
changes are calculated in the usual way, but the signs are reversed to facilitate interpretations of the cyclical
movements; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Monthly percent changes
Selected monthly series
Avg.
pet.
change,
1948- July Aug .
1961l to
to
Aug. Sept.
1962
1961
Sept , Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb . Mar . Apr . May
t©
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar . Apr . May June2
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86, Exports i excluding military aid shipments,
total . ,
3.7 -0.5 +0.5 +6.3
3-5 -7.7 +1.5 +3.3
7.2 +16.9 -10.7 +9.1
7.5 +15.2 -3.1 -1.7
90. Defense Department obligations i procurement. 25.4 +33.9 -16.7 -23.0
0.3 +0.1 +0.1 -0.1
81. Index of consumer prices
Selected quarterly series
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
12. Net change in the business population,
16 . Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
22. Ratio of profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars
49. Gross national product in current dollars...
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21)
Average
percent
change,
1948 to
19611
-3.2 +0.2 -3.4 +11.6 -11.9 +10.0 NA
-0.9 -1.1 +1.8 -0.5 +1.7 +2.9 NA
-3.4 -3.3 +11.8 -6.4 -1.3 +2.8 -2.9
+4.8 -1.1 -2.7 -0.1 -6.1 +16.7 +3-4
-4.5 +37.8 +1.1 -40.0 +0.3 +65.6 NA
0.0 0.0 +0.2 +0.3 +0.3
0.0 NA
Quarterly percent changes
1st quarter 2d quarter 3d quarter 4th quarter, 1st quarter
to 2d quar- to 3d quar- to 4th quaiv 1961, to to 2d quarter, 1961 ter, 1961 ter, 1961 1st quarter, ter, 1962
1962
11.2
+1.6
32,9
7 ,,7
+66.7
+14.0
7.7
-2.3
+10.2
0,0
+4-4
0.0
+11.3
+11.0
-2.3
+15.2
+3.9
+10.1
-6.9
5.3
+11.0
+2.2
+8.6
-5.0
1.4
1.9
1.6
+3.1
+1.7
+1.4
+1.9
+1.6
+2.8
+3.1
+3.0
+0.8
+1.1
+0.9
3.6
-1.0
+3.6
+2.0
+0.8
1.0
-0.1
+0.6
-0.7
+0.9
3.0
0.0
+0.4
-0.6
+0.4
+2. a
+16.3
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
3
+3.5
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
•'•This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-tc-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision or new seasonal
adjustment
made new computations feasible.
2
May to June percentage changes cover part of June only.
3
Anticipated, Percent change from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter, 1962, based on anticipated data, is +2.0.
Analytical Measures
31
Table 3.-D1STRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1946
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
May
1960
July
1957
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
..«
12
4
1
4 months
3 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
7
1
3
1
21
...
1
1
2
X
17
0
3
18
17
2
22
0
13
2
1
3
2
1
22
0
11
1
4
1
...
*17
0
3
4
19
1
1
2
2
3
1
'*3
18
17
2
11
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
1
22
0
22
5
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
& months or more
7 months
6 months
3
1
2
1
2
...
1
4 months
4
1
2
1 month
1
11
9
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
1
1
1
2
3
3
11
27
1
3
...
2
3
.5
11
45
2
3
11
27
2
Jan.
1953
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
"l
4
4
2
3
3
3
6
11
36
11
27
11
55
"i
*4
4
11
36
Current expansion
6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948
1
Feb.
1962
Mar.
1962
May
Apr.
1962
1962
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
6
1
4
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
1
1.
X
17
6
1
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
2
18
17
16
1
1
1
1
1
1
22
5
3
4
4
2
4
1
2
2
22
9
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
4
6
4
22
18
"l
1
2
1
2
5
8
22
36
3
1
1
2
"*2
"2
3
5
4
6
1
4
22
18
2
1
15
7
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
4 months
3 months
1 month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
'*4
2
4
1
2
1
5
11
45
2
3
6
11
55
1
5
3
11
27
2
3
11
27
1
8
3
11
73
"9
11
82
3
"3
8
11
73
1
2
8
11
73
NOTE: All quarterly series, 2 leading monthly series (series 7 and 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40)
are omitted
from the distribution. The figures shown are for the month specified but became available the following month.
X
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such 3 peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
Includes 1 series with no highu
32
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
D1. Average workweek, mfg.
(21 industries)
Percentage
Expanding
IThree-
D6. New orders, durables
(21 industries)
Dll. Capital Appropriations, mfg.
15 industries, One-Quarter
602 companies, Four-Quarter
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA
(200 companies)
Percent reporting higher profits
A
%/
J
D34. Profits, mfg.
(700 companies)
I0ne-Quarter| III
Percent report!ng higher profits-
D19. Stock Prices
(82 industries)
D23. Industrial Materials Prices
(13 industrial materials)
[Three-Month|
D5. Initial Claims Unempl. Insur. [Three-MonthI
inverted (47 areas)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read th* Time Series Charts/ pag* 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Analytical Measures
33
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Auo,)
T
(July) (Apr,)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
D41. Nonagricultural Employment i^v ;f:
(30 industries)
D47. Industrial Production
(25 industries)
y
4v v*T
100
xz ^AJ*
50
0
D58. Wholesale Prices, mfg. goods ^
(23 industries)
D54. Sales of Retail Stores
(24 types of stores)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Seriet Chart*/ page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
Actual
Anticipated
Change in total carloadings
SI
D35. Net tales, all manufacturers, 800 companies
Four-Quarter
036. New orders, durable goods manufacturers, 400 companies
Four-Quarter
D48. Carloadings, 19 manufactured commodity groups*
061. New plant and equipment expenditures, 17-22 industries
1958
1959
1960
Data are centered within span a vered. Lriest data are as follows:
Period covered
Series number
Actual
035 036
DAI
(l
1st Q 1961 * 1st Q 1962
2nd Q 1960 - 2nd Q 1961
4th Q 1961- 1st Q 1962
Anticipated
3rd Q 1961 - 3rd Q 1962
2ndQ 1961- 2nd Q 1962
2nd Q 1962 - 3rd Q 1962
*|ncreose of 500,000 car I codings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1961
1962
Analytical Measures
35
Table 4,-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NBER Leading Indexes
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries}
Year and
month
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
P6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
3 -month
interval
1-month
interval
Dll. New3y approved
capital appropriations
b. 15 industries
a. 602 companies
4-quarter
interval
1-quarter
interval
D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies)
1-month
interval
1958
October
42.9
81.0
50.0
92.9
83.3
85.7
66.7
47.6
52.4
71.4
66.7
64.3
66.7
73.8
73.8
81.0
45.2
28.6
40.5
31.0
26.2
52.4
52.4
78.6
83.3
81.0
92.9
90.5
73.8
26.2
14.3
21.4
31.0
47.6
69.0
50.0
61.9
73.8
85.7
52.4
40.5
71.4
52.4
9.5
76.2
52.4
42.9
85.7
71.4
100,0
90.5
76.2
42.9
57.1
31.0
33.3
42.9
57.1
66.7
52.4
21.4
19.0
35.7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1
31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3
28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
57.1
28.6
47-6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9
85.7
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1
54-8
95.2
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
28.6
33.3
90.5
76.2
81.0
61.9
66.7
76.2
61.9
61.9
61.9
42.9
47.6
11.9
78.6
r76.2
r88.1
p!9.0
19.0
r6l.9
r95.2
P76.2
71.4
57.1
r45.2
47.6
P38.1
66.7
44
51
42
60.0
48
52
50
56
58
56
54
50
42
40
44
48
r70
1959
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
....*
. . .'.
r64
73.3
r60
70.0
r54
26.7
r46
1960
January
March
April
May
July
50.0
r44
33.3
r40
23.3
r40
66.7
r48
46
36
40
44
42
44
39
34
34
34
28
30
1961
March
April
May
July
46.7
r54
i
53.3
r58
70.0
66
60.0
(Nft)
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
1962
March
April
May
Revised.
Preliminary.
42.9
r6l.9
r42.9
P33.3
(NA)
48
49
50
52
52
36
Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes «hown.
NBER Leading Indexes — Continued
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks1
FNCB (around
(82 industries)
700 corps.)
Year and
month
1-quarter
interval
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D5. Av. weekly initial claims
for unemployment insurance,
State programs (47 areas)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
1958
55
November
80.8
87.2
79.7
91.9
94.2
93.0
69.2
88.5
34.6
69.2
69.2
53.8
76.6
63.8
34.0
89.4
74.5
87.2
86.0
65.1
60.8
54.1
35.3
55.2
81.4
42.4
10.5
53.5
57.0
73.2
86.0
85.5
77.9
70.9
51.2
68.0
66.3
36.0
20.9
26.2
64.0
57.0
50.0
50.0
73.1
50.0
53.8
61.5
50.0
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
57.7
53. S
46.2
57.7
73.1
61.5
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
46.2
91.5
55.3
63.8
83.0
36.2
30.9
45.7
29.8
50.0
17.0
51.1
91.5
do. 9
89.4
83.0
8?.2
63.8
40.4
25.5
23.4
6.4
17.0
53.2
83.0
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
44.7
67.9
29.8
55.3
38.3
44.7
55.3
17.0
60.0
40.4
46.8
48.9
83.3
40.5
40.5
27.7
42.6
38.3
21.3
33.3
20.0
48.9
30.9
54*3
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
60.6
46.8
70.2
52.1
42.6
55.3
46.8
44.7
46.8
72.3
70.2
25.5
53.2
68.1
61.7
66.0
61.7
51.1
55.3
40.4
60.6
76,6
59.6
38.3
26.2
74.4
43.2
9.1
1.2
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1959
January
February
March
April
May
55
July
46
72
August .».*<,
October. „ * « »
November » . » «
December » * «
I960
January
Febrxiary
March
April
May
June
49
July
43
August
,
September
45
49
44
November.
December . *
1961
44
February
March* **.**
April*
69
May. ......
June
July
August
56
„
November
». . . .
53
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
1962
51
April
May.
73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
3
26.9
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
2
38.5
57.4
93.6
38.3
51.1
36.2
68.1
a?, a
78.7
29.8
1
Th© diffusion index is based on 86 components through January I960; on 85 components, February I960 to November I960,
and on 82 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites representing an additional 22 components are shown in the
direct
i,on-of-change table (table 6C).
. 2June 14, 1962.
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.--DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(25 industries)
(
1-month
Interval
3^aonth
interval
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D58. Index of
wholesale
prices ( 23
mfg. indus.)
1-month
interval
1958
October
December
76.7
81.7
78.3
93.3
90.0
93.3
74.0
94.0
56.0
92.0
88.0
80.0
87.5
47.9
75.0
37.5
83.3
60.4
62.9
49.9
46.7
90.0
80.0
88.3
83.3
81.7
75.0
68.3
43.3
60.0
36.7
55.0
78.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
65.0
58.3
38.3
45.0
58.3
61.7
56.0
60.0
76.0
88.0
90.0
56.0
74.0
28.0
44.0
38.0
50.0
92.0
70,0
76.0
88.0
92.0
84.0
76.0
62.0
44.0
26.0
34.0
58,0
84.0
37.5
58.3
83.3
47.9
68.8
39.6
66.7
39.6
29.2
39.6
77.1
41.7
81.2
81.2
77.1
89.6
58.3
66.7
29.2
50.0
45.8
62.5
54.2
58.3
64.7
84.8
76.4
r6l.9
81.7
69.3
r54.8
r45.5
r58.1
56.4
58.6
r42.4
56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
30.0
20.0
11.7
80.0
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7
62.0
16.0
52.0
62.0
66.0
58.0
52.0
34.0
18.0
46.0
30.0
20.0
66.0
38.0
42.0
74.0
76,0
68.0
34.0
14.0
20.0
16.0
24.0
16.0
6S.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
37.5
47.9
79.2
54.2
62.5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45.8
45.8
43.8
41.7
r60.3
r45.6
r56.8
r46.7
r40.4
r45.4
r39.6
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7
33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53.3
11.7 '
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83.3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3
46.0
32.0
58.0
86.0
84.0
84.0
76.0
66.0
22.0
88.0
72.0
64.0
32.0
56.0
80.0
92.0
94.0
84.0
100.0
62.0
72.0
76.0
84.0
54.0
58.3
47.9
79.2
25.0
45.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8
39.6
72.9
47.9
58.3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35.4
75.0
70.8
89.6
70.8
38.6
41.3
r54.6
r57.7
49.1
51.9
r52,6
52.1
r60.2
r41.2
r36.9
r53.3
60.4
r68.8
r95.8
p70.8
66.8
45.6
r63.3
r51.0
p62.1
1959
January
March
April
May
July
September
October *
I960
February, . . . T
March
April
Mav
July
October
1961
January
March
April
May
July
September
November
1962
April..,
May
Rervised.
Preliminary.
33.3 '
81.7
r8l.7
r91.7
P68.3
60.0
r75.0
88.3
P83.3
18.0
72.0
r58.0
r74.0
P64.0
r32.0
r42.0
r88.0
p84.0
58.3
64.6
62.5
r62.5
P47.9
38
Analytical Measures
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIESOCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in 1st month of 2d quarter.
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
D3S. Net sales,
manufactures
(BOO companies)
4-quarter
int erval
Year and
month
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
Change in
Anticipated total
(000)
Actual
Anticipated
1953
88
86
85
83
84.2
89.5
+321
84
88
82
84
52.6
78.9
-173
76
87
76
84
42.1
84.2
-73
78
82
76
° 77
57.9
89.5
+8
68
84
64
82
26.3
57.9
-146
61
82
58
76
31.6
68.4
+96
53
74
51
68
31.6
78.9
-103
50
70
50
68
21.1
50.0
-279
60
68
62
68
26.3
42.1
-212
72
82
72
78
(NA)
89.5
-26
74
83
73
78
73.7
+7S
82
88
82
86
89.5
+125
CNA)
86
(NA)
82
89.5
r+41
84
(NA)
(NA)
November, . ..
December. . . .
1959
January
February. . . .
March
April
May
June
July
September* . .
November, * . .
December..,.
1960
January
February. * . .
March..*....
April.......
May. ..,,....
July
August
September...
October
November ....
December. . . .
1961
January. ....
February
April
,.
May
.,
June
«.
July
August ..*...
September. . *
October
November
December*. .*
1962
January
February. . . .
March
April
May
June,
H
r" Ravised.
"p" Preliminary.
1
3rd quarter, 1962.
88
50.0
40.6
68.8
84.4
81.2
87.5
75.0
84.4
65.6
71.9
75.0
84,4
71.9
71-9
56.2
71.9
34.4
43.8
28.1
37.5
46.9
f>3.1
56.2
62. 5
59.4
65.6
65.6
62.3
r6a,a
1
53.1
Table 6.-OIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT
A.--(Dl) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing (21 Industries)
3-month spans
1959
3 2 8* o g S
h
7
1961
I960
Series components
1
>> fl1H° bo! 'a
C!
,0
h t n
^
§
'j
M P U - P
>
0
l
F
r
<
0
c
:
- 7p ^ T
O ig ^f f i - ' t7^ 7r - ?a g ?r - ?j h T
O f it
S1 1 1 3 3 eg
1962
liltlnlfli! iiiiii
26 14 21 31 48 69 50 31 7 21 67 55 69 17 H 24 10 2 14 55 95 90 81 93 69 79 45 79 81 81 21 19 62 95 76
+
+
-
-
O
O
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
- + + +
_
+ _ + +
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and f ixture s
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation eouipment
Instruments &nd related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
o
-
-
+ + +
4-
_
_
_
o
+
- - - + „ +
+
4-
+
+
0 - - -
- - - - - 4-
—
—
n
+
O
. + + + + + *-*-+
+
+
+
+ o
-
-
-
-+-+ + + .
o + - +•
-
_
-f
-
+ o
-
_ - + +
+ _ _
+
S
a
; ;;
+
o
+
en
+ + +
C
+
+
+
+
+
o o
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
Q O
+
Rubber products
Leat he r and leathe r produc t s
+ = rising; o =.unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted before the direction of change is determined.
O*
°
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and allied products
Paper and allied products
Print ins and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
r+
^
-0
_
_
-
+
-
0
+
+
+
0
+ -
- _ o
+
_ + +
_
Table 6-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Contimwd
B.«(D6) Value of Manufacturers" New Orders, Durable Goods Industries (21 Industries)
spass
3-HOIith
i! i-a
>->
< «
I I I III If f i l l Hi'liFilfif! I f ! j|]
57 31 33 43 57 67 52 57 29 48 43 50 29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 62 62 62 43 48 43 62 43 33
_
P ima
nf
tl
*"'
Other primary mptals
Electrical generator appartus *
-
Other electrical equipment *
Motor vehic le s
Motor vehicle parts
Aircraft
Other transportation equipment *
Metalworkirg machinery *
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machirery*
Engines and turbines *
Agricultural implements
Construction machinery*
Office machires *
Household appliances
+ --
+ + + -
4-4-4-
+
+
+
4-
4-
-
-
-
4-
4-
-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
_
4-4-
4-
-
-
-
+ +
4- 4-
+
+
+ o -
-
+ +
+
_
+
—
—
4-
—
+
+
___
—
—
Q
4-4-
- - - 4 - 4 - 4 -
^
__
4-
4-
-j-
-J-
+ _-4-4-
+
+
4-4-4-
+
4-
+
+
+
4-
+
4-
-
4-4-4-
+
+ -
+
_
+
--
4-
-
-
4-
_
_
-
+
-
4-
4+
4+
4-
4-
-•4-
—
4-
_
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4-
+ 4- _ 44- 4-
4_
-
44-
•*-
-
-
-
4+ -
_
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - O
4 - 4 - 4 - T - 4 -
+
-
+
+
4-
_
4-
«-t
^
h*o
s
n>
2
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ _
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Includes durable industries not available separately.
4-
4-
+
-
4-4-44-
+
4-4-
4-4-J_
_
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - + 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - -
4-
4-
4-4-
—
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
_ _ _ 4 - _ 4 4-4-4- —
4-4-
4-
4+
+ -
_ _ _ 4 - 4 - 4 - _ _ _ _ O -
-J-
4-
_
+ _
4-4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4-4— — 4-
—
_
4-
fabricated metal products*
1962
r4
O
p tlO
3 A
o -Po >o jp
*-3 •< co o a Q
^ *k | j w a
<
Percent rising
1961
I960
1959
Series components
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.~(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks (24 Industries)
3-month spans
H
p
1961
I960
1959
Series components
to P« -P
3 a) o
>
o
o
o>
<U
tO
fljD^^>»rifHW)a-pi>o
t-7jpc(s«jS|-3i-5'!a;tooaf-5
1a a13 12 23 Io i<j -s ig ia i^ i^ i5i5t -k^ il lj 5i -i s.
<ij
X
h»
^
1962
a
f J X i ( H ) H > ^ C r H t l O f t - P > O
< d 6 . t f Q < a } 3 2 2 < l > u o a )
C!
n 1117 7 1 n ^ 1
o o j p o j o j t f p ^ i p p ^ a )
O a Q t - a ( - t , S < « J S | - 3 ^ < » J W
£>
h
t>t - r i
SH
^,2^5-^1
J i A i J, i
o S <S 1 £ 3
68 66 36 21 26 64 57 27 12 28 41 52 51 64. 39 36 42 76 94 96 96 95 94 71 57 58 55 56 62 73 52 40 38 33 0
500 stock prices
+
Mining and smelting
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
4
+
-
+ + + + +
+
Paper
+
+
+ + +
4
+
.......
........
+
"
+"
+
+"
+
+
+
+
444
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
,
+
+
+
4
.{-
+ "
+ +
+
+"
+
+
4
4
+
C hemi ca Is
Oil composite
+
nff
.
™, , ^.
hid
Automobiles
"*
+
o
_
-
_
+
+
+
+
+
4 , 4 , + -
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
1
-
-
o -
*
+
4
+
4
-
-
O 4
4
-
+
4_
rt
O*
i—
+
+
+
2
O
V)
4 4
4 4
4
+ --- ++
4
-
+
-
-
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
_
-
_
-
4
+
+
+
44
4
+
-
+
+ 4
-
-
4
4
4
4
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
_
-
4
-
+
-
_
4 4
.
+
4
4 4 +
+
+
+
. - . .+
_
4
; t ; : ;;
0
-
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
-
-
+ -
; i :! :
4
4
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
1
Based on 86 industries through January I960; on 85 industries, February I960 to November I960; and on 82 industries thereafter. 19 of the more important
industries are shown in this direct ion-of -change table. The food, oil, building materials, machinery, and retail composites represent an additional 22 industries which are included in the percent rising,
>
^<r
+ +
+
t ; : ::
+
- + - _ - +
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
+
+
+
." *
1*
+
.
+ + +
Steel
Metal fabricating
.
4
§
42
Analytical Measures
Timr-a^
^C^-qa^
Jdy-u^f
CO
1
O
I
1 0 1 1 1 +
+ + + 1 0 I I
+ + I I I I
+ 0 + 1 0 + 0
+ 1 + 1 0 + 1
CM
1
+ 1 1 + 1 1
JT8W-09Q
*<!•
1
+ I 1 + O I
+ I + I O + +
|
q8J—AOfJ
CNJ
4.
+ 1 4 , 1 + 4 ,
+ O I I O + +
3
U'9f —IJ.OO
to
+
+ 1 + 1 + +
0 0 + 1 0 1 +
oarj -dag
\O
1
I 1 I I + +
+ O 1 + O I +
S
H
I
Z
UJ
£
g
S
f
H
-^»
—
O
2
t/>
Q;
to
UJ
oc
UJ
t/l
'sr
—
D
&»- !
a=
S
Ao^-9ny
W
1
1 1 1 + 0 +
+ 0 1 + 0 ) 1
^.OQ-jnp
ON
+
I O + + 0 +
+ + + + + 1 1
dag-unf
&
+
I O + + 0 +
+ + + + I + I
-<f
1
I O + + 0 )
+ + + + I I I
Snv-^BM
>:
"5
fv,
(X»
**
< -g
D_
A
^
UJ
w
-5
sO
inp-ady
O
1
+ 0 1 + 0 1
+ 0 + + 1 I I
tmp-JBw
to
)
+ O + + Q I
+Q + + I I I
jCi^—qa^j
H
+
+ + + + 0 )
+ + + +I
j^^..U-B£»
f\
+
+ + + + I I
+ 0 + + I + +
J^w-oaa
qaj-Aoji
l>
+
+ + + +I+
sO
+
UBp-^DQ
rH
1
1 1 + 1 1 +
1 1 + 1 1 1 +
3
09a~d8g
in
1
I I I I I +
i l + l l l l
i
AO^I— 3ny
(V
1
I I I + 0 +
1 1 + 1 + 1 +
^.DQ— plf
in
I
i l t t o +
i t + i + ) +
i
1
A
£ i
O
vn
?
H
a i
1 1 + 1 1 +
+ +
+ ) + + ) + +
+ t + + t ) +
deg-unp
to
i
+ i + + o +
1 1 + 1 + 1 +
9tiy—JC'syi
to
\
+ Q + + O I
i i r i + i i
"[Tif—jdy
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Toble 6.-D1RECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
F,--(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricuiiuroi Establishments (30 Industries)
1-month spans
19 SO
Percent rising
Jul-Aug
Aug-Sep
Series components
Jun-Jul
19.>9
-P
<D
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O
0
1* >>
CX, ^
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3
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tao
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tt
1962
l l l l l l l l l l l l 111!!!
68 43 60 37 55 78 57 83 53 55 50 30 35 30 22 30 20 12 33 33 75 67 85 87 58 53 37 65 70 53 33 82 82 92 68
+
Stone , clay, and glass products
-
4-
+
—
O
+
PrimaTy metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation eouipment
Instruments and related products
^
rf
O
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber &nd wood product s
43
CO
s sa §
i. J. t. 1 1 J> 1 i 1
co o s a £ £ t s s
1961
+
+
+ o +
+ + +
+
-*•
-
+
+
O
-
+
0
+
- o
- - - - -
-t- + o •*•
-
+ + + -
o - + + o o + o
.
_ _
,
+
4.
+
,
+
+
,
+
+
+ +
.
+
-h
—
_ _ _ - + _
O
+
0
-
O
o
+
o
o
o —
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
O
O
•*•
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__
- +
_
-
,
+ + + + + o +
+ +
+
+ +
+ +
+
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+
0
s- +
+ +
+
+
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+
+
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+
+
+
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+
+
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+
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+
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+ + + _
+
+
+
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+
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O
O
-f
o
+
+ +
+
-
o + Food and Icindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Kubbe r produc t s
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
State and local government
-
-f-
-
+ + +
+ - +
+ + +
—
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4"
—
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-
+ +
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4-
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+
+
+
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- + + - + _
+
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+
+ 0
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-
+
+
+
o
o
o
+
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+
+
+
+
o
+ +
+
o Q
+
+
o
_
o -
.
+ + -
+
O
O
+
+
+
+
+
—
—
__
+
— — o
+ _ o -
-
+
O
—
+
_
,
-(-O +
- +
+ + +
+ oo
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
— +
o
+
+
.
0 +
+ +
+ O
+ -+ + +
— + — + — —
_
0
-
+
_ +
o -*+ -
o
-<•
O
+ +
+ _
+
+ +
+
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+
O
+
+
+ + +
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+
+ + + + + +
+
+
+ +
o
4- •*•
4-
-1-
o
+
o + •*•
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally "ad justed by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
+
- + -O
+ ---
,
-
+
+
+
+
+
,
+
- +
so
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.--(D47) Index of Industrial Production (25 Industries)
1-month spans
Series components
3
SP & o SE;g QS
»-3 <$ O5 O
1 3 £ H a£
t-» "-3 <*; en o
1962
1961
I960
1959
cj JQ h k >» ci r- i f
a t o ) f f t Q ( a i 3 p
7 t i i S < s ! S l ~ 3 h ^ <
1
1 1
1
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1
o O Q < - P f > e j
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|
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74 28 44 38 50 92 62 16 52 62 66 58 52 34 18 46 30 20 46 32 58 86 84 84 76 66 22 88 72 64 18 72 58 74 64
DURABLE GOODS
4r
®
" *"! "*"
o
4-
+
+
-
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
-
4-
0
+
_
+
+
-
4- +
Fabricated metal products
Electrical machinery
_ _ _ 4 - _ 4 - _ _ 4 - - _
+ -+ + - - - - - -
-
-
+
- -
+
-
+
+
_
4-
+
+
+
+ --+ _ + _
4 - - + 4 - - - -
+ + + - - - - + + + _ _ _ - + - 0 - - -+ +
+ - 0 +
+ - -
_
+
+
+
+
+
+ + 4 - - - - + +
+ +
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+ + O
+ + + 0
+ -t. + + + _ + -l-
4+
4+
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+ - - . 4 - 4
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ --.+ -
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
0
-
+
+
+
0-
+
+
+
_ 4 - _
+
_ _
_ 4 - -
+
o -
-
+ _ + _
_
+
_
_
+ 4- +
4- + +
+ - 4- + +
> +
+
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
- O
Instruments and related products
+
-
NONDURABLE GOODS
Food and kindred products
Printing and publishing
0
44+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
o
-
+ +
- +
+ +
o +
Petroleum and coal products
_
-
-
_
- _
- -
+
-
+
4-
+ + +
+
+
4 - -
+
+
+ - - 4 0 - - +
+ _ + +
_ + +
+
4-
+
+
+
0
+
Q
O
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+
-
+
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+
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4 - - + 4-
+
+
+
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-
+
-
- - +
--
_
4-
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---
+
++
+ --
_
4.
_
+
+
+
_
_
o
- - +
+ ' + _
__- * - _ -
+
0
+
o
+
+
o
+
4+
+
+
+ +
+ + +
+ +
+
+ . _ - j - _
+ - j - _
+
4 +
4_
+
O -+ + -
-
+
-
+
-
+
+ o
+
-
+ o
Q
+
+
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+
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4-
-
+
+
+
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+
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+
+
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+
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+
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+ + +
-
o
4+
-
+
-
+ O
_
0
-
+
o
o
- + +
o o + - - - -
+
MINERALS
Coal
Metal mining
_ _
+ 4-
+
+
+ + +
- - - + +-O
+
4 - - 4 - 4 - - + - +
4 - - + - - 4 - 4 - O
+
+
+
+
+
+ 0
+ +
+ +
4-
+ - rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
+
+
+
Toble 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.-(D54) Sales of Retail Stores (24 Types of Stores)
3-month spans
r-j
HJ
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Hfl ft
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-P
O
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SI Q
k i H 4) o.
ft! jrt
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3
t-a
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1962
I960
1961
! f - ! M f t ^ > 0
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1959
Series components
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3 0 ^ © O O JS> GJ G) of
- » ' ^ C O o s Q *-s fa s
Jo -o i^ ia ii i Gi> i^ i ai ^^ A , , ! ,
|
&
C!
3
67 29 50 46 62 54 58 38 48 79 54 62 21 46 42 46 46 44 42 40 73 48 58 54 71 83 35 75 71 90 71 60 69 96 71
Other food stores
Eating places
Department stores
Mail-order stores
Other general stores
Men ' s wear stores
..
..
+
Family apparel stores
Shoe stores
*
. u . u
,
j'"""t
B Id *
at " 1 d 1
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
+
-
0
-
+' +
+
_
o
-
+
+ +
__-
+ -
+
Liquor stores
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
- - O
+
-*+
+ + +
+
res
+ + + +
+
+
•*•*-
+
+
+ -j- -j- +
-
o - - -
+
+
-
+
4-
+
-
+
+
-f
+
4-
0
+
-
_
_
+
+
+
+
+ _ - * •
+
-o
+
- -
+
.
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
O
-
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
+
, , .,
Drug and proprietary stores
*"
+ -*--t-
+
„
Tire and batterv dealers
o + -
D
*-<r»1-^-* >
o
47
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
CHART 4
&%gj|ii^
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
9. Construction contracts, comm. and Indus.1 .
Index
180
Reference trough dates
October, 1949
April, 1958
* • • 'August, 1954
February, 1961 \
160
140
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
Index
120
100
80
29. New pvt. housing units authorized
150
140
130
120
110
100
90 -
80 L90
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of M" or *2" (series 1), the figure for the reference peak is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9, 24, 29), the average of the reference peak month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "1001*.
^For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.
Latest data plotted: Series 9 * April;
Series 1, 24, 29- May.
48
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dotes in4recentbusiness cycles, for selected series.
Index
13. New business incorporation!
150
Reference trough dates
October, 1949
April, 1958
' • • 'August, 1954
February, 1961
140
17. Price per unit of labor cost
130
120
110
100
90
i i I i i 1 i i I i i 1 I i t I I 1 I i 1 l l 1 l i t i l l
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
180
23. Industrial materials prices
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
- 80
90
80 L
•J 70
+18
Months from reference troughs
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2* (series 19, 23), the figure for the reference peak fs
set at "100'. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 17), the average of the reference peak month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100".
Latest data plotted: Series 13 - April; Series 17, 19, 23 * May.
Cyclical Patterns
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 4
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
Index
105
41. Employees in nonag. establishment*
Reference trough dates
October, 1949—April, 1958
••••August, 1954 —February, 1961
43. Unemployment rote (inverted)
100 -
J
40
55. Wholesale prices (excl. farm and food)
-I 110
- 105
- 100
-1 95
95 L
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
-12
-6
0
46
+12
Months from reference troughs
For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of T or "2f (series 41, 43, 55), the figure for the reference
peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the reference peak month, the
month preceding the reference peak month, and the month following fhe reference peak month is set at "100".
Latest data plotted: May.
50
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERN$i»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
47. Industrial production
Reference trough dates
October, 1949---April, 1958
••••August, 1954 —February, 1961
51. Bonk debits outside N.Y.C.
- 100
J 95
52. Personal income
n 120
115
110
105
100
J 95
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 47, 52), the figure for the reference peak
is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the reference peak month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly
series (series 49), the reference peak quarter is set at "100".
Latest data plotted: Series 47, 51, 52 - May ; Seriets 49 - 1st Q 1962.
51
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough (jaltes in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
Reference trough dates
Index
—— April, 1958
February, 1961
October, 1949
August, 1954
110
61. New plont ond equip, expenditures, Q
105
100
95
80u
67. Bonk rate, short-term business loans/ Q
64. Manufacturers' inventories, total
125
115
120
110
115
105
110
100
105
95
100
95
90
90
-12
-6
0
+6
+ T2
Months from reference troughs
+18
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 62 and 64) the figure for the reference
peak is set at "100". For quarterly series ($eries 61 and 67), the reference peak quarter is set at "100".
*Last two quarters anticipated.
Latest data plotted; Series 62 - May; Series 64 - April; Series 61 - 3rd Q 1962; Series 67 - 1st Q 1962.
52
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 5
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
9* Construction contracts, comm. and indus.
Specific trough dates * identified
with reference trough dates in-1949
1958
1954....
1961
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
Index
105
- 120
J
...
.*
100
Specific trough levels
I
100
29. New pvt. homing units authorized
160
24. Value of new orders, moch. and equip.
150
200 r
140
180
160
130
T40
120
120
110
100L
100
0
-r6
4-12
+18
424
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or *T (series 1), the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of *3" or more (snries 9, 24, 29), the average of the specific trough month, the month
preceding the specific trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100*.
1
See appendix table B for "specific"dates.
2
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown; the 1961 specific trough date has been selected
tentatively.
Latest
data plotted: Series 9 April;
Series 1, 24, 29- May
Cyclical Patterns
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
13. New business incorporations
Index
Specific trough dotes1 identified
with reference trough dates in1949
1958
1954....
1961
170
Specific trough dates
160 _
150
17. Price per unit of labor cost
A
i\
I \
140
w
-i"
130
120
110
- 105
100 LJ
100
19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks
i i i I i . i t i I . i i i i 1 ^ ;j
f t
Ii.I. .
23. Industrial materials prices
200
200
190
180 f-
180
160
160
170
150
140
140
130
120
120
110
100L
J
100
LJJ
0
+6
L_L
L_L
+12
+18
+24
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
Months from specific troughs
For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) ot "1" or "? (series 19, 23), the figure for the specific trough
is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 17), the average of the specific trough month, the
month preceding the specific trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100*.
1
See appendix table 6 for specific" dates.
Latest data plotted: Series 13 - April; Series 17, 19, 23 . May.
34
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series*
Index
41. Employ*** in nonog. estobli thments
115
Specific trough dates1 identified
with reference trough dotes in1949
1958
—
1954....
1961
'
•Specific trough dates
no
43. Unemployment rote (inverted)'
Index
280
260
240
220
105
200
180
s*' Specific trough levels
160
100
140
120
47. Industrial production
-1 100
135
49. GNP, current dollars
130
135
125
130
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
-J 100
100
0
+6
+12
-H8
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MfCD) pf "1" or "21 (series 41, 43, and 47), the figure for tlie specific trough is set at "100". For quarterly series (series 49), the specific trough quarter is set at "100*.
See appendix table B for "specific" dates.
Latest data plotted: Series 41, 43, 47 • May ; Series 49 - 1st Q 1962-
Cyclical Patterns
CHARTS
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNSh-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
51. Bank debits outside N.Y.G*
Specific trough dates l identified
with reference trough dates in*1949
1958
1954....
1961——
Index
135
130
Index
54. Sales of retail stores
125
120
115 _
115
110 _
110
105
105 -
-hoo
53. Labor income, industrial
100 L
-,150
140
130
120
no
100
100 L
i I ii i i I t i > i ! I i I i i I i i I i i I i i
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2*' (series 52, 53), the figure for the specific
trough is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3M or more (series 51, 54), the average of the specific trough
month, the month preceding the specific trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100".
%ee appendix table B for "specific" dates.
2
Based on tentative specific trough date for 1961 expansion.
Latest data plotted: May.
Cyclical Patterns
56
Toble /.-PERCENT OF R E F E R E N C E PEAK LEVELS AS M E A S U R E D AT DESIGNATEC) MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
For aeries with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, a, 43, 47, 52, 55> 62, 64
end 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (aeries
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, H, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54-), the average of the reference peak month, the month immediately preceding the reference peak month, and the month Immediately following the reference peak month is used as the base. The
base for quarterly series (49, 50, 61, 6?) is the reference peak quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
Months
beginning in—
after
reference July July Mov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr , Feb.
1958
1961
1933 1949
trough1 1921
1927
1933
1924
1954
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
14
14
NA
72.3
22.6
96.8
50.6
57.4
15
159.8
131.1
15
138.8
156.3
79.0
16.4
146.5
14
14
45.1
82.4
126.8
107.3
123.4
118.6
16.7
68.2
68.9
85.8
15
15
15
15
20.1
NA
104.9
59.5
130.8
NA
137.1
106.9
117.3
NA
191.9
98.6
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
95.8
81.9
NA
m
97.7 100.0
NA 106.5
NA
NA
86.3 115.0
m 110.8
100.0 110.7
102.9
NA
109.4
110.6
NA
123.7
112.9
102.7
81.1
0.2
68.9
59.1
NA
49.8
61.9
67.8
96.7
73.8
95.4
95.6
NA
96.5
97.8
97.1
15
2. Accession rato, manufacturing
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders j durable
7. Nev private permanent nonfarm dwelling
units started
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2
13. Number of new business incorporations. ......
14. Current liabilities of business
failures (inverted)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Mew private housing units authorized by
mm
99.8
70.9
56.1
124.7
143. 8 37.1
104.7
94.7
102.0
70.1
39.1 158.2
175.3 108.6
NA
NA
33.0 78.6
68.5 94.8
102. a
104.9
100.7
92.5
152,8 93.3
100. a
114.5
105.6
101,2
111.5
145.1
212.7
137.4
117.9
1,08.9
168.5 113.3
136.8
122.6
132.6 102.6
137.1 130.2
101.3
100.3
75,6 89.4
115.7
112.2 101.9 101.6
136.7 185.1 123.2
142.5 115.0 99.5
94-7
100.1
114.1
93.9
NA
142.0
120.2
106.9
NA
NA
123.9
1H.Q
102. 2,
62.6
106.2
109.4
106.5
117.4
110,2
110.4
101.4
81.0
106.1
109.0
105.7
114.2
109.0
107.9
101.3
94.7
107.2
108.3
105.6
116.4
109.0
104.7
103.5 101.9
99.6
168.8
100.4
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41* Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
47. Index of industrial production
49. Grogs national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q) . .
31. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52 . Personal income
15
15
15
12
12
15
15
15
104.8
99.7
119.3
114.4
111.5
127.7
114.8
123.2
5§. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
15
67.5
96.4
92.6
86.0
95.1 110.2
12
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA 104.7
15
14
14
74.4
NA
NA
94.4
93.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
88.3
73.5
54.6
96.2
89.0
104.7
12
86.5
90.8
113.7
71.3
96.7
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
6l. Business expenditures on new plant and
105.5
86.1
98.1
108.2
166.6
101.6
100.7
127.1
100.0
96.3
109.3
99. a
103.3
107.6
101.1
100.8
93.1
62. Wag© and salary cost per unit of output,
6?. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
NA Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
1
Based
s
98.3
108.0
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64,
66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more {series 2,
3> 6> 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, 54), the average of the reference trough month, the month immediately preceding
the reference trough month, and the month immediately following the reference trough month is used as the base. The
base for quarterly series (49, 50, 6l, 6?) is the reference trough quarter. See MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
after
beginning in —
reference July July Nov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb.
trough1 1921
1961
1938
1958
1927
1933
1949
1924
1954
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
+8.6
NA
+1.7
+3.3
+3.5
+5.9
15
+4.1
-4.4
14 +529.3 +136.0 +70.6 +38.0 +13.3 +18.1 +27.4 +23.5
14 i- 615.1 +85.2 +102.9 +17.1 +41.4 KL27.8 +.44.4 +74.1
15
+126.4 +17.0
+4.8 +103.4 +163.2 +130.1 +47.8 +37.7
+3.3
+1.6
+68.8
+18.3
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling
+56.0 +17.1
15
+41-8 +68.6 -24.1
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2
13 Number of new business incorporations. ......
14. Current liabilities of business
14
14
+65.6 +32. 6 +42.2 +39.6 +39.5 +95.6 +36.9 +30.5
-0.4 -4.0 +16.1 +36.4
+13.8 +44.8 +U. 3 -14.0
+8.7
+8.1
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
15
15
15
15
+18.9 +45.1 +27.5 +112.4 +47.5 -1.3 -20.6 +18.7
NA
NA +13.3
NA
NA
NA
+7.9
+2.5
+41.8 +31.7 +46.5 +59.6 +25.1 +33.5 +46.3 +41.1
+42.1 +27.4 +1.1 +64.9 +41.5 +89.5 +15.0 +14.4
-3.8
+2.2
+1.3
-1.6
+48.8 +43.3
+11.3
+8.9
-5.1 +42.7
+35.8
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+21.8
+18.4
15
15
15
12
12
15
15
15
+18.8
NA
+43.3
NA
NA
+11.3
+19.4
+4.5
+10.4
NA
+22.5
+9.0
NA
+18.7
+11.4
+12.9
+7.3
NA
+18.4
+10.1
NA
+13.8
+10.2
+2.7
+18.5
+43.4
+44.8
+17.2
NA
+30.6
+25.8
+20.0
+7.9
+51.4
+40.9
+8.5
NA
+15.5
+9.8
+17.4
+10.4
+107.5
+30.4
+18.4
+13.2
+33.0
+20.0
+23.7
+5.8
+41.6
+17.0
+11.4
+9.8
+15.6
+10.4
+11.3
+5.9
+43.3
+23.5
+11.7
+9.9
+17.8
+9.3
+11.7
+3.4
+27.3
+15.2
+9.5
+8.1
+13.6
+9.2
+8.7
15
+7.2
+5.5
-0.5
+18.2
+4.3
+2.4
-0.2
12
NA
NA
NA
NA
+30.8 +10.5
+7.2
+5.5
15
14
-8.2
NA
NA
-4.6
14
-17.3
NA
NA
+2.5
+0.3
+6.8
+18.3
+34.2 +23.0
-6.9
+1.2
+8.4
-2.7
+6.0
+4.5
12
-19.8
+3.5 +18.1
+16.8
+0.2
29- New private housing units authorized by
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q) . .
51 Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
+0.5 +16.1
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
6l. Business expenditures on new plant and
NA
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
64 Manufacturers ' inventories, book value. .....
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q) .
NA
NA
+20.5 -7.3
-6.0
+24.1
+14.2 +12.3
-8.4
-0.9
+7.2
+5.9
NA Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
1
Based
2
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 9.-PERCENT OF "SPECIFIC" PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM "SPECIFIC" TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE "SPECIFIC" TROUGH OATHS IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
For sturies with' a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53), the figure
for the "apeelfie" peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 9* 13» 17,
24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the "specific" peak (trough) month, the month immediately preceding the "tspesifio"
peak (trough) month, and the month immediately following the "specific" peak (trough) month is vised as the base. The
base for quarterly series (49, 50) is the "specific" peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnote to appendix C.
Months
after
"specific"
trough1
Selected series
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2.
Index of stock prices. 500 common stocks
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr .
1958
Feb.
1,961
Percent of "specific" peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1, Average workweek of production workers,
19
July
1921
...
17
NA
97.4
99.2
69.5
91.7
NSC
12
33-5
74.9
NA
99.2
61.4
109.3
105.5
NA
14.7
57.4
112.5
100.8
99.0
99.0
M
ISC
66.9
NA
33.7
62.8
60.4
76.5
NA
70.0
91.7
83.2
72.9
105.6
126.1
123.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
95.3
103.6
NA
100.0
NA
NA
115.5
106.1
NA
103.8
NA
109.4
NA
NA
NSC
100.8
NA
NSC
81.1
NA
63.9
59.1
NA
46.7
61.9
57.7
67.8
96.2
67.3
87.7
91.0
NA
92.9
94.8
90.3
96.5
104.8
87.0
117.4
103.2
104.9
126.1
114.0
116.8
NSC
15
14
19
17
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and ©oud prnont industries
*
19
29. Index of new private housing units
authorised by local building permits
. . . 17
99.5
NSC
NSC
90.2
1U.2
61.3
97. 8
99. S
90.5 103.6
135.2
93.4
102.0
9S.5
122.5 105.4
92.2 92.3
103.0
106.2
NA
80.4
88.8
102.2
63.1
102.9
106.6
104.4
NSC
106.5
106.9
107.4
101.5
72.9
105.6
105.3
102.7
113.1
108.1
106.2
107.9
101.1
90.4
105,8
108.3
105.6
115.2
108.3
105. 8
105.1
90.9
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41 • Number of employees in nonagricultural
47*
4950,
51.
Index of industrial production
Gross national product in current dollars (Q),
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q) . . .
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
54- Sales of retail stores
15
12
15
12
12
17
15
15
16
Percent change from "specific" trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1,. Average workweek of production workers,
17
9- Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor spaee?.
17.
19?3
24.
Price per unit of labor cost index. ...
...
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
Index of industrial mats rials prices .
...
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units
81.9
NA
90.9
NA
NA
37. 0
NA
NA
96.0
+11.5
+7.5
+3.6
-6.8
+9.6
+5.4
Index of industrial production
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).,.
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
54* Sales of retail stores
+3.9
+5.5
+42.5
+48.5
+9.3
+9. a
12
15
14
19
17
+62.2
+7.2
NA
+46.2
+50.7
+74.1
+41.1
NA
+32.1
+36.7
19
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA U15.0 +52.3 +38.9
+14.0
17
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+30.3
+19.2
15
12
15
12
12
17
15
15
16
+18.8
NA
+33.3
NA
NA
H3.9
+16.2
NA
+11.6
+10.4
+9.4
NA
NA
+22.5 +18.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
+20.3
+10.2
+3.5
NA
NA
NSC
+5.9
+18.5
+50.9
+39.3
+17.2
NA
+22.9
+25.8
+62.2
+20.0
+7.9
+22.8
+32.6
+8.5
NA
+13.3
+8.5
+23.5
+17.5
+10,4
+89.2
+30.4
+7.0
+7.5
+33.2
+20.0
+33.7
NSC
+5.9
+3.4
+29.3
+15.2
NSC
+28.2 +51.9 +32.9 +93.3
NSC
+7.9 +3.8
-4.2 +23.3
NA
+5.0
NA +11.8
NA
NSC +121.0 +28.1 +51.8 +62.3
-6.3 +68.9 +48.2 +83.6 +17.4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
47*
4950.
51.
+3.8
NA
+5. a
+8.9
+2.2
+48. 1 +17. 2
+16.$
+0.9
+49.5 +40. 8
+H.5 +23.5
+9.5
+9.1
+8.3
+7.4
NSC +17.4
+7.8
+9.3
+15.8 +15.4
+11.0
+12.8
+9.5
+8.1
+14. 5
+9.2
+12.4
+9.2
NA Not available.
NSC No specific*cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based on period from most recent "specific" trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
Tho8 number is the same for each expansion. "Specific" trough and peak dates are shown in appendix B.
Except for l,96l, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
APPENDIXES
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designation. Therefore, when appendixes are dropped from an issue, the continuity is interrupted.
However, appendixes that are dropped will be listed with the latest date of
publication.
"Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program", not included in this issue, was included in March 1962.
Appendixes
60
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Business cycle
reference dates
Cyale
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 18?0
March 1879
June 1857
October i860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
30
22
46
IF
34
36
XXX
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
48
30
2«
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
3B
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
40
30
35
42
39
August 190^
June 1908
January 1912
December 19H
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918
January 1920..„
May 1923
„
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
!i
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926..,,
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945...
November 1948.„
July 1953
14
13
43
13
jj
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
22
4S
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
13
~
35
25
18
44
34
48
34
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 eyeles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
,
1
2«54
5
4B
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
4
*25
cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Appendixes
61
Appendix B.--"SPECIFIC" TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
"Specific" trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. "Reference" dates
are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected
leading and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
"Specific11 trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr*il
1958
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1, Average workweek, prod, wrks., mfg. Dec. '60 Apr. '58
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... Apr.^l1 Jun.'58
13. Number of new business .incorporations
Jan. '61 Nov. '57
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Mar. '61 Apr. '58
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60 Dec. '57
23. Index of industrial mat. prices,... Dec. '60 Apr ,'58
24. Value of tnfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Oct. '60 Feb. '58
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Dec. '60 Feb.'5B
• NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4.1. Number of employees in nonagriculFeb. '61 Apr. '58
tural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61 Aug. '58
Feb. '61 Apr.1' 53
47. Index of industrial production
IstQ '61 IstQ/ '58
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
IstQ '61 IstQ '58
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
51 . Bank debits outside NYC
Dec.^O1 Feb. '58
52 . Personal income
Feb. '61 Feb. (58
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
Feb. '61 Apr. '58
54 • Sales of retail stores
Jan. '61 Mar. '58
Aug.
1954
June
1938
Oct.
1949
March
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1921
July
1924
Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jul. '32 Apr. '28 Jul. '24 Feb. '21
NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul. '24 Mar. '21
NSC
Feb. '49 Sep. '39
Dec. '53 May '49 NA
Sep.. '53 Jun. '49 Apr. '38
Feb . ' 54Jun . ' 49Jun. '38
Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul. '32
Dec. '26 Jun. '24 Jan. '21
NA
NA
NA
NSC
Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Aug . ' 28Jun . ' 24Jul. '21
Jan . ' 54Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
MA
NA
NA
NA
Aug. '54
Sep. '54
Mar. '54
2ndQ '54
2ndQ '54
NSC
Mar. '54
Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 Jul. '24 Jul. '21
NA
NA
Oct. '49 Jun. '38 May '33 NA
Oct. '49 May '38 Jul. '32 Nov. '27 Jul. '24 Apr. '21
2ndQ '49
2ndQ '49
Aug. '49
Oct, '49
NA
2ndQ '38
NA
May '38
May '38
IstQ '33
NA
Apr. '33
Mar. '33
NSC
NA
NSC
4thQ '26
Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 NA
Jan . ' 54 NSC
May '38 Mar. '33 NSC
NSC
NA
Jun. '24
2ndQ '24
4thQ '21
NA
Jul. '21
2ndQ '21
NA
NA
Oct. '24 Sep. '21
"Specific" peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
I960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweeks prod, wrks,, mfg. May '59 Nov. '55 Apr. '53 NSC
Dec. '36 Oct. '29
9. Construction contracts awarded for
1
commercial and industrial bldgs... Apr.^9 Mar. '56 NSC
Mar. '46 Jul. '37 Jan, '29
13. Number of new business incorpoJul. '46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29
Apr. '59 Feb. '56 NSC
NA
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Oct. '55 Jan . ' 51 Jun. '48 NA
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul. '56 Jan. '53 Jun. '48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
23. Index of industrial mat . prices. ... Nov. '59 Dec.'^ Feb. '51 Jan . ' 48Mar. '37 Mar. '29
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, maNA
NA
chinery* and equipment industries.. Dec. '59 Nov. '56 Feb. '51 NA
29. Index of new private housing units
NA
NA
NA
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58 Feb. '^5 NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculApr. '60 Mar. '57 May '53 Jul. '48 Jul. '37 Aug. '29
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60 Mar. '57 Jun.'53 Jan. '48 Jul. '37 NA
Jan. '60 Feb. '57 Jul. '53 Jul. '48 May '37 Jul. '29
2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
NA
2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 NA
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
Aug.^O1 Aug. '57 NSC
51 . Bank debits outside NYC
Aug. '48 Mar. '37 Aug. '29
Oct . ' 60Aug. '$7 Oct. '53 Sep . ' 48Jun. '37 Aug. '29
53. Labor income in mining, manufacMay '60 Jun. '57 Jul. '53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
Apr. '60 Jul . ' 57Jul. '53 NSC
54. Sales of retail stores
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
tentative turning date.
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
Nov. '25 Nov. '22 NA
Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
Dec. '19
NA
Jul. '19
Apr. '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NA
NSC
2ndQ '26
Jun. '23
NA
May '23
NSC
NA
May '23
IstQ '24
Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
Jul. '20
NA
NA
NSC
NA
NA
Feb. '24 Jul. '20
Appendixes
62
Appendix C--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 55 MONTHLY AND
9 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
T/E
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCI)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2. Accession rat©, manufacturing
30. Nonagrl cultural placements, all industries
.24
2.08
1.35
5-45
1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92
2
3
3
3
.95
.92
.55
.76
2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49
1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80
9.82
8.35
8.67
7.59
4.26
4.58
4,53
5.16
17.91
4.88
3.67
5
.81
1.66
1.49
7.10
3.37
6.12
3.16
1.94
2
.97
1.86
1.53
9.28
3.61
5.00
2.00
2.50
3
.75
1.94
1-48 10.64
3.34
5-55
2.19
2.53
3
.73
1.68
1.47
12.82
3.56
2.75
2.19
4.34
2.71
5
3
.go
1.62
1.59
1.49
1.37
8.28
.79
a. 56
3.45
3.55
2.36
3.02
4
.71
1.82
1.69
10.14
5.23
2.01
1.69
3
.67
2.29
1.67
11.46
4.46
.40
.47
5.31
6.03
3.41
3.14
11.94 10.46
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
:i ndus tries
<, . .19.43
$. Average weekly initial claims for unemploy6.98
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
5.58
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery
6.07
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings
12.37 11.94
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. 6.37
5.94
27. Buying policy — production materials, percent
reporting commitments 6 months or longer. . . . 7.56
7.12
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units
started
4-09 3.39
29 . Index of new private housing units authorised
ay local building permits
3.90
3.44
12. Net change in the business population,
operating businesses
12.15 15.46
2.57
3.04
1.67
2.06
3
.60
1.93
1.53
12. 43
3.70
7.29
1.30
2.12
1.98
3
3
.84
.65
2.71
2.19
1.80
1.69
10.64
9-31
4.08
3.50
16.05
2.81
5.71
6
(x)
1.57
1.42
5-32
2.22
1
1.54
2.52
2.40
1.39
2.12
1.73
a. 94
13.55
6,21
2.82
4.68
3.36
14. Current liabilities of business failures
1$. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19* Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor perf ormaneo , percent reporting slower
17.30 17.36
.93
.74
1.90
2.58
6.17
23. Index of industrial materials prices
11.30
2.15
16.32
3.26
.44
1.49
5.33
1.68
1.28
6
3
2
C )
.73
.79
5.53
2.76
2.00
3
.66
1.90
1.61
11.55
4.63
8.12
1.39
7.20
1.52
1.13
.91
2
1
.77
.91
3. IB
2.61
2.01
1.84
9.94
11.46
3.59
2.61
.22
.29
.76
1 ,
.76
3.41
2.04
10.44
3.41
.32
3.46
4.62
'.22
2.91
3.26
1.45
1,19
1.42
2
2
2
.72
.64
.67
1.94
2.44
2.05
1,62
1.68
1.38
13-73
7.67
HMO
3-44
3. 43
4.37
2.80
4.12
.68
1
.68
3.47
2.44
8.28
3.47
.93
2.30
1.40
a. 13
2.30
3.92
4-32
3.39
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
„ . . . .39
42. Total nonagrieultural employment, labor force
.41
43 • Unemployment rate , total
4.73
40. Unemployment rate, married males
5.80
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
5.63
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
3.28
47.
51.
52.
S3.
Index of industrial production
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
Personal income
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
See footnotes at end of table.
2.10
' 2.26
.93
1
1.32
1.56
.69
.82
1.42
.43
.88
.70
.54
.93
2.03
.80
1
3
1
.93
.58
.80
3.92
1.82
3.39
2.92
9.31
1-55 10.64
1.69 21.29
1.12
1,58
.69
1.43
.84
.56
.82
2.55
1
4
.82
.70
3.63
1.84
1.80 13-55
8.77
1.67
3.63
3.56
.30
.11
.27
.41
1
.41
5.22
2.53
12.85
5.22
Appendixes
63
Appendix C.-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 55 MONTHLY AND
9 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/O
.84
.64
.43
1.49
.88
.27
.40
.49
.28
MCD
for Average duration of run
MCD
C
CI
I
MCD
span
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
2
.88
2.53
1.77
13.55
3.29
.34
1
.34
7.84
2.16
13. £5
7.84
.84
1.12
.58
.25
1
1
.58
.25
6.48
8.79
2.61
2.29
13.55
18.56
6.48
8,79
.17
6.91
7.23
.23
1.31
1.46
.74
5.27
4.95
1
5
.74
.92
.96
4.48
1.47
1.70
2.18
1.39
1.52
19.89
7.59
5.96
4.43
2.30
2.55
3,72 3.39
87. General' imports, total. . *
3.52 3.02
94. Index of construction contracts, total value.. 8.,29 8.06
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement... 25-35 24.41
15.57 15-00
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi29.19 29.33
1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88
2.23
2.29
.69
.79
.96
5.21
3
3
4
6
5
1.89
1.71
1.67
1.58
1.49
1.51
1.57
1.47
1.51
1.41
7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.67
4.08
3-06
2.93
2.44
2.40
6.21
4.72
6
1.61
1.50
5.38
2.76
.68
.49
.52.
.88
.98
.65
.81
1.60
1.51
2.63
1.69
.93
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72
2
3
2
1
2
3
3
1
2.91
2.41
3.44
3,92
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37
1.95
1.93
2.27
2.92
1.62
1.70
1.67
1,77
17.11
15-40
15.50
9.31
17.78
17.00
22.00
23.57
5.28
6.91
6.13
3.92
4.08
5.09
9.50
3.37
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industries.
.99
66. Consumer installment debt, end of month
1.19
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
.28
7.17
7.49
5
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
3.63
4.91
'M
.99
- (M
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121.
122.
123.
47.
125.
OECD, European countries, index of Indus, prod...
United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
Canada, index of industrial production
United States, index of industrial production.
West Germany, index of industrial production.,
128. Japan, index of industrial production
1.32
1.29
.98
1.32
1.61
1.79
1.70
2.09
1.03
1.29
.88
.82
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15
CI
I
.82
.87
.98
.93
.64
.80
.63
.72
T/c
Quarterly series
C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
5.78
3.73
4.17
.89
1
.89
2.89
1.49
5.50
2.89
1.44
49 Gross national product in current dollars. . . . 1.88
.
1.60
.65
.69
.82
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.49
2.94
.51
1
.51
4.64
1.55
5.67
4.64
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2.68
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corpoNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip-
3.61
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
1.02
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
2.96
.60
1.94
64
Appendixes
NOTES FOR APPENDIX G
1
Not computed for series when MOD la "6" or more.
Tho following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Bugi:£§? Oycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, oh. 17, "Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators11 by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961).
r
"CI(t is the average month-to-month
(for_quarterly aeries, quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without reg&rd to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing tho
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
i^lexible moving average.
"MOD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in tho irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., ate.), 2-month spans
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MOD is tho shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in tho irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown aa "6".
MOD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QCD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/G" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month span_s and for spans of the period of MOD.
When MOD is "6", no I/O
ratio is shown for the MOD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QGD spans.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it iG assumed
that tho "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjuoted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component G, and the MOD moving average. The MC0
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MOD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the some direction.
Appendixes
65
Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY B U R E A U OF THE CENSUS O R N B E R
(MAY 1961 TO J U N E 1962)
Series
May
June
1961 1961
4. Number of persons on temporary
90.7
layoff, all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
unemploy . insurance , State
83.0
9. Constr. contracts awarded for
commercial and indus. bldgs.... 110.7
104.7
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures 95.7
15. No. of bus, failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over.. 96.9
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
of sales, all mfg. corp.1
105.3
25. Change in mfrs.1 unfilled or2
ders, dur. goods industries ... 98.7
30 . Nonagri . placements , all indus . .108.1
45. Average veekly insured unemployment rate State programs * . • . .95.2
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
farm products and foods
100.0
99.8
82. Federal cash payments to public. 102.4
83. Federal cash receipts from pub., 114.3
90. Defense Department obligations —
75.9
88.0
91. Defense Dept. oblig. , total
92. Military prime contract awards
94.4
to U.S. 'business firms
125. W. Germany, index of indus. prod.. 102.5
128. Japan, index of indus. prod
99-9
July
1961
Aug.
1961
Sept.
1961
Oct.
1961
Nov.
1961
Dec.
1961
Jan.
1962
Feb.
1962
Mar.
1962
Apr.
1962
May June
1962 1962
86.2 102.8
134.3
92.1
90.9
89.0 106.1
105.2
118.2
98.1
86.8
90.5
85.9
loi.o
85.4
77.5
89.7 103.5 128.9
136.9
111.4
99.8
98.2
82.7
83.9
83.5
118.1
101.8
71.6 100.9 108.4 110.8 98.3
93.1 110.1 103.7 104 .-7 104.3
103.6 113.6 109.1 95.7 96.3
84.1
98.9 11^.6 117,0 106.1 110.3 95.4 B4.4
104.2 99.9 95.4 90.2 95.7 84.6 100.3
96.3 85.9 103.3 94.0 94.9 106.1 95.0
103.2
91.6 100.3 87.6
86.8 95.4 90.1 111.4 113.1 113.4 109.6 96.9
97.9
98.9 99.8 100.3
111.6 106.7 114.0
97.5
100.8
123.7
85.3 86*6 81.5 75.5
99.9 99.9
100.0 100.1
107.5 97.3
155.8 50.4
99.9
99.9
111.1
108.0
98.6
105.5
100.4 100.3 100.7 99.8 100.3 100.3 99.7 98.7
112.2 90.3 85.2 81.8 77.6 88.8 100.2 108.9
76.9
87.0 108.8 131.9 134.5 126.5
99.9 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.2
100.1 100.2 100.2 100.1 99.9 99.9 99.8
97.4 101.4 103.1 99.1 90.2 99.0 92.4
121.9 46.9 98.8 103.5 71.6 114.9 136.7
220.4
156.2
50.8
82.8
79.2 100.7 84.1 90.1 98.9 75.2 95.9 146.8
86.8 99.1 98.8 90.8 100.3 91.4 91.9 117.8
231.7
103.1
100.3
68 5
94.0
99.3
66.8 92.6 82.5 68.6 115.3 80.5
93.0 101.5 103.7 109: 5 101.4 94.5
96.6 98.6 100.0 98.7 102.9 93-9
80.0 125.6
96.2 100.1
101.5 108.7
103.2
98.8
112.5
94.8
84.9
100.2 100.0
100.0 99.8
98.8 102.7
77.4 115.0
99.9
100.0
107.5
154.8
111.7
78.0
94.5
76.2 220.8
88.2 156.3
94.7
101.1
99.9
94-5 229.2
102.5 103.3
99.9 100,4
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
Some of the series above are also adjusted for trading days.
For this reason, the original observations divided by the seasonal factors given above will not yield the seasonally adjusted figures shown in table 1.
^•Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
2
The seasonal factors are applied to the unfilled orders series; then the change in unfilled orders is computed.
Appendixes
66
Appendix F.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan, 1920-July 1921
May 1923- July 1924
Oct. 19?6-Nov. 1927
Aug . 1 929-Mar . 1933
May 1 937- June 1938
Feb. 1%5-Oct. 1945*
Nov 1948-Oct. 1949..;...
July 1953-Aug 1954s
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median;6
All contractions
Excluding postwar con4 contractions oince
] 94B
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50, GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
43. Unemployment rate
51. Bank 52. Per- 54- Resonal
tail
debits
sales
outside income
NYC
NA
NA
NA
-31.6'
-10.4
-31 .-6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
•-19. 7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0
-31.4
-8.5
-9.2
-14.1
-6.9
NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-2.3
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-1.1
-5.7
-16.0
-2.6
-6.5
-16.0
-3.8
-8.8
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
Jung
1921-May 1923
1924-Oet. 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 1945*
Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948
Oct. 1949- July 19535
Aug. 1954-July 1957
Apr, 1958-May I960
Median:6
All oxpans ions
Excluding wartime expans ions
4 expansions since
3945
@
4.0
a
3
+7.9
8
+2.3
2
S
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-14.1
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
3.2
a
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
+8.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.7
+2.2
+3.3
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
1.1
'4.0
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
7.8
6.0
7.4
6.9
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-2.6
+3.3
3.6
7.2
-2.5
-2.9
-3.6
-2.3
-3.6
+3.5
4.0
7.6
-2.6
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
-2.1
+3.3
4.1
7.2
-50. a
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions*:
Reference trough
to reference peak
Change
Rate at Sate at
in rate, pQak
trough
peak to
trough
11.9
g
5.5
8
4-l
25.4
20.0
43. Unemployment rato
49 GNP 51. Bank 52. Per- 54- Rein cur- debits
tail
sonal
rent
outside income
sales
dollars NYC
1
(Q)
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
WA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+63,1
+103.3
-8.7
»-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2
+21.9
+50.3
+19.4
+25.9
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+12.2
+34.9^
+43.5
+23.8
+15.8
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.9
+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5
+0.3
-5.2
-1.8
-2.3
+17.4
+35.5
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+20.8
-3.7
7.1
-2.6
6.3
3.7
6.7
3.9
41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments
+13.0
+26.8
+12.5
+21.6
+13.0
+23.9
+12.8
+29.4
+24.4
+21.7
+16.5
+39.0
+25.6
+23.4
Change
at Rate at
in rate, Rate
trough peak
trough
to peak
2
-2.0
2
11.9
2
5.5
8
4.1
25.4
20.0
3.3
7.8
6.0
7.4
8
3.2
g
g 3
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
For aeries with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 4-1, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series
49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
mogt recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 3d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
<3
Di.ffers from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series vised.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
^The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. *M*
indicates monthly series and "Q1* indicates quarterly series. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Ace esc ton rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
4. Number of person* on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5* Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance, State pro*
grams (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods Industries
(M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units started (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
porations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board
*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Brad street,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to wage and salary cost per unit of
output Index) (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18. Profits (before toxes) per dollar of soles, alt manufacturing
corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
material (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP Component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
(Q)0—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment in-
dustries (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census ,
from special tabulations of the Office of Business Economics
25. Change in manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods In-
dustries (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting
mitments 60 days or longer (M).—National
Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
27. Buying policy—capital expenditures, percent
mitments 6 months or longer (M).--National
Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
ing permits (M).--Department of Commerce,
Census
com-
Association of
reporting comAssociation of
by local buildBureau of the
30. Nonagri cultural placements, alt industries (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
15 NBEft ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41.
Number of employees in nonagrlcultural establishments (M).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force survey (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43, Unemployment rate, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census.
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49, Grass national product In current dollars (Q).--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross notional product In 1954 dollars (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bonk debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
53. Labor Income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).»
Depertment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
57. Final sates (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (ratio of Index of wage and salary disbursements in
manufacturing to index of industrial production, manufacturing) (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
63- Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP In 1954 dollars) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing
industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers* inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer Installment debt, end of month (M).--Hoard of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net
change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month
to obtain current figure (NEER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
PENALTY FOR PRtVATK UM TO AVO4O
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE, SKX>
fOPO)
DIVISION Or PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON. D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
COMPLETE TITLES AMD SOURCES OP PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES»C0n.
15OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
82.
83.
84.
Ffderol cosh payments *o the public (M).--Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of th«t President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
Federal cosh receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Euro*
pean Countries, Index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, Index of industrial production (M).--Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, Index of Industrial production
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).--Organixation
for Economic Cooperation and Development; sessonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
126.
Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart-
Franca, Index of Industrial production (M).-Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127. Italy, Index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Eco-
nomic Cooperation and Development
128.
Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).-Treasury Department, Bu-
reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the meth"
od of seasonal adjustment.
(M),--Dominion Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
...
Japan, index of industrial production (M).--The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
United States, Index of Industrial production (M).-See series 47
85.
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General Imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).»
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89.
Excess of receipts or payments In U.S. balance of payments
90.
Defense Deportment obligations, procurement
(Q)."Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
91. Dofense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards,
U.S. business firms (M).--De-
partment of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93.
Fr*e c*serves (mamber bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
94.
Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--IF. W. Dodge
95.
Surplus or deficit. Federal income and product account
(M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
Corporation
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Q).--
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The *D* preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes snd corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources
above for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows;
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).-Purchasing Agents Association of
Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank of
New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net soles, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstmet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight corloodlngs (Q).»Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER