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ISINESS
NDITIONS
»'




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. William Verity, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
George R. Green, Editor

This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.




PART IL
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
K9

NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT

1 Al_j
pA2 !
f~A2TJ
f^LJ
*~A5
i A6

rw
\

A8

_
| BT~j
rB2 1

_

Chart

Table

GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

48
49

84
87

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT

T CTj

Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

51

JQI
j Dll
\~D2~ I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

52
53

9(
9(

ffl

[^ E2 ]

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

56
57

9;
9

_F1 H
| _F2H
~F3~~|

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

58
59
59

9'
9
9

PART I!!. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of V a r i a b i l i t y (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of V a r i a b i l i t y (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (June 1988 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (April 1988 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

c
1C
l(
1(
1

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue
Composite Indexes: Latest Release

iii
v

ltd*

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

JULY 1988
Data Through June
Volume 28, Number 7

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS

Al i
A3 [
A4_J

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Chart

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
39

74
77
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
_BL_
B2
B3
B4
J35__
B6
B7 )

Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
:3

I

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department.




CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

I Business Investment .Commitments—
97. Backlog of
corporations, Q

approved capital appropriate 1
,Q(HL40L)

100.

dollars for new plant

I Business investment Expenditures

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business
expenditures

production, business equi
; 1977-100) (c

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24



JULY 1988

ltd

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Nov.

P

Mar

P

Dec. Nov.

T

T

I Formation of Business Enterprises]
•Hi

(index: 1967-100) LI Bf

[Business {nvestment Commitments

10. Contracts and orders for
in current dollars (bil.

20. Contracts and orders for
in 1932 Mars (t

24. Manufacturers'
capital goods i

dollars, nondefense

contracts awarded for conffrcia! and
mil. sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg.—5-term)1

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

!!€!»

JULY 1988




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
Jan. July
P T

56. Manufacturing and
fbil

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

July
P

Nov.
T

81

82

in current dollars

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22



JULY

1988

ltd!

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

[Orders and Deliveries

/. Manufacturers' ne
*""*' industries

6. Manufacturers' new
durable goods

1982 dollars, durable goods

*4

current dollars,
doL)
'$$$$?£ W

><<
:o,

:

>:,s ty^z3IHf;

^^l|anuf acturers' new orders in l|jJ2 doll^,$^umer
and mateials Industries (bil. dol.) °

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries r,,
(ML (W.; MCO moving avg^4.term)

' unfilled orde^^^g^^n^^ystries

/

""

fuP

, percent of companfes
deliveries (oercenf)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

ItCII

JULY 1988




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Mar.
T

Nov.
T

P T

e, manufacturing (p^cerrt) MtUl f

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20



JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

[Comprehensive Output and income

IBSf (ann. rate, bit, dot.)

income in

280026002400220020001800-J

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

JULY 1988




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

80

81

82

| Comprehensive Unemployment |

insured unemptoyiMpe, State programs (percent

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18



JULY 1988

IUII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Nov.

P

190-

|Comprehensive Employment)

180-

J

481 Employee hours in norta^ricuttural establishments
(aim. rate, bii. hours)

17016015011511010510095-

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)
90-

85-

80-

75-

41. Enptoyees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
70-

65-

40. Employees on nonagricultural payroil4:i^is-producing
inAjstries ' ^* v ——

1962 S3

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

S3

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

!!€!»

JULY 1988




17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment
in, July
F T

July
P

Nov.
T

arginat Employment Adjustments |

2J

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

16



JULY

1988

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Apr. Feb.
P T

91. Average duration of une

Nov. Mar.
P
T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T

(weeks—inverted scale)

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade
1982 dollars (ratio)

Labor cost per unit of output,
as percent of trend (percent)

Average prime rate charged by

. Commercial and industrial loans outst

95. Ratio, consumer

in 1982 dollars (bil. doU

to personal income (i

9 5 2 5 3 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

JULY 1988




15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Aug. Apr,
P T

^pr. feb,
P T

Dec. Nov.
P T

Nov.
P

Mar.
T

Jan, July July

P T

P

Nov.

T

41. Employees on nonagricultufal payrolls (mi

PJ1

U

51 Personal income
1982 dollars (ann

C,C,C

47. Industrial production

57. Manufacturing
sates W
1982 dollars (bil dol.)

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14




JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
P I

Aug. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P 1

Nov. Mar.
P
T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T

ivate housing units authorized by
Its (index; 1967-100)

trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1 (arm. rate, bil.
^
,«&,

sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

19. Stock prices, 500 common

ndex:194HllllO)

LM

106. Money supply M2 in 1982

ill.

Change in business and consumer
(arm. rate,

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
1
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

ltd*

JULY 1988




13

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
Juiy May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Nov. Mar.
P
T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

: L Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)

weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State
,.

fthousands-Hnverted |kate)|p

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars^^nsumer goods HI I
K
" materials industries (bit. dot)
fiLpT
"

ngstower deliveries (percent)

3f?,
f r
t

If:

^
1

Contracts and orders for plant and eauionent m
1982 dollars (b«, dot.)

10-

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66.

12



JULY 1988

IN:

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Nov. Mar.
P
T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T

V

Findex: 1967^1001

915. inventory investment mid purchasing (series 8, 32, 36,99)
120 n
-8

11010090-1

916. Profitability (series i% 26,80)

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
MOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

ltd*

JULY 1988




11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart Al. Composite Indexes
July May
P I

Aug. Apr.
P T

Nov. Mar.
T

Apr. feb
P T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T

910. index of eleven leading indicators1

(series 1,5f 8,19,20,

36,99r 106]

920. Index of four roughly coincident indica
(series 41,47,51, "

930. index of six laggi
(series 62,77, Sim 101,

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index,
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10



JULY 1988

KCI

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data 2

P ercent change

A nnual average

of

Series title

1985

1986

2dQ
1987

3dQ
1987

1987

IstQ
1988

-35.13 -34.66
106.21
98.91
141.34 133.56
-40.07 -39.87
56.79
62.39
102.46
96,66
25.94
24.79
20.84
19.72

-37.73
100.35
138.08
-39.55
59.86
99.42
22.43
20.74

-38.99
106.32
145.30
-39.66
64.90
104.57
23.29
22.22

-29.15
119.25
148.40
-41.19
68.01
109.20
33.25
20.71

-36.60
118.85
155.45
-35.94
74.67
110.62
25.11
25.71

1987

IstQ
1987

ji
E

3dQ
to
4th Q
1987

4th Q
to
IstQ
1988

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

9.84
12.2
2.1
-1.53
4.8
4.4
42.8
-6.8

-7.45
-0.3
4.8
5 .25
9.8
1.3
-24.5
24.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

2d Q
1988

IstQ
to
2dQ
1988

£

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

Balance on goods 3nd services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Income on U S investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States

Bil dol
. .

do
do . .
do
do
do
do
do

-25.02 -30.88
93.76
90.14
115.17 124.64
-30.54 -36.14
53.98
55.99
84.52
92.13
22.21
22.53
16.74
15.72

A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200
50
217
213
224
225
227

230
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.

4240.3
3721.7
15,401
3706.3
3019.6
2640.9
10,929

4526.7
3847.0
15,770
3812.6
3209.7
2686.3
11,012

4391.8
3776.7
15,537
3746.9
3143.9
2679.6
11,024

4484.2
3823.0
15 , 6 9 3
3795.2
3154.1
2652.8
10,889

4568.0
3865.3
15,826
3852.2
3224.9
2683.9
10,989

4662.8
3923.0
16,022
3855.9
3315.8
2728.9
11,145

4724.5
3956.1
16, 126
3890.1
3375.6
2762.3
11,260

4806.9
3986.3
16,219
3941.3
3416.5
2759.8
11,228

2 .1
1.5
1.2
0.1
2.8
1.7
1.4

1.3
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.8
1.2
1.0

1.7
0.8
0.6
1.3
1.2
-0.1
-0.3

200
50
217
213
224
225
227

2629.0
2354.8
372.2
355.1
911.2
847.4
1345.6
1152.3

2807.5
2455.2
406.5
385 .0
943.6
879.5
1457.3
1190.7

3012.1
2521.0
421.9
390.9
997.9
890.5
1592.3
1239.5

2921.7
2490.2
403.5
378.3
977.5
889.9
1540.7
1222.0

2992.2
2516.6
420.5
391.3
995.3
889.8
1576.4
1235.5

3058.2
2545.2
441.4
406.5
1006.6
891.9
1610.2
1246.8

3076.3
2531.7
422.0
387.6
1012.4
890.5
1641.9
1253.6

3128.1
2559.8
437.8
401.1
1016.2
892.7
1674.1
1265.9

3186.8
2574.2
446.9
408.1
1030.3
888.2
1709.6
1278.0

0.6
-0.5
-4.4
-4.6
0.6
-0.2
2.0
0.5

1.7
1,1
3.7
3.5
0.4
0.2
2.0
1.0

1.9
0.6
2.1
1.7
1.4
-0.5
2.1
1.0

230
231
232
233
226
238
237
239

.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars.
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars..
Nondurable goods..
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars.
Services
.-...
Services in 1982 dollars.

240
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.

4014.9
3618.7
15,120
A r dollars
A r bil dol . . 3 6 0 9 . 6
2838.7
do
2542.8
do
10,625
A.r., dollars

643.1
637.0
631.8
627.9
11.3
9.1

665.9
643.5
650.4
628.1
15.5
15.4

712.9
674.8
673.7
640.4
39.2
34.4

685 . 5
646.4
647.8
616.6
37.7
29.8

698.5
660.1
665.8
632.3
32.7
27.8

702.8
667.9
688.3
654.9
14.5
13.0

764.9
724.7
692 . 9
657.6
72.0
67.1

763.4
728.9
698.1
662.9
65.3
66.0

756.5
725.0
713.5
680.0
43.0
45.0

8.8
8.5
0.7
0.4
57.5
54.1

-0.2
0.6
0.8
0.8
-6.7
-1.1

-0.9
-0.5
2 .2
2.6
-22.3
-21.0

240
241
242
243
245
30

do
do
do
do
. do
do

820.8
7 3 1 .2
355.2
326 0
465 .6
405 .2

871.2
760.5
366 .2
333 4
505 .0
427.1

924.7
780.2
382 . 0
339.0
542 .8
441 .2

903.8
772.9
372,7
3340
531.1
438.9

915.7
772.2
377.5
332 . 1
538.2
440 . 1

932.2
782 .9
386 . 3
342 . 1
546 . 0
440. 8

947 .3
792.6
391.4
347 .7
555.9
444 .9

945 .2
776.4
377.7
327.8
567,5
448 .7

954.2
777 .2
375.2
325 . 3
579.0
451.9

1 .6
1 .2
1 .3
1 .6
1 .8
0.9

-0.2
-2 .0
-3.5
-5 .7
2 .1
0.9

1 .0
0. 1
-0.7
-0.8
2 .0
0.7

260
261
262
263
266
267

- 7 8 . 0 -104.4 - 1 2 3 . 0 - 1 1 9 . 1 - 1 2 2 . 2 -125 .2 - 1 2 5 .7 - 1 1 2 . 1
- 1 04 3 - 1 3 7 5 - 1 2 8 . 9 - 1 3 2 8 - 1 2 6 0 - 1 30 7 - 126 0 - 109 0
4 1 6 . 8 4 4 0 . 4 459 .7
487 .8
37 0 . 9
3 7 8 4 428.0
395.3
394 9
4 1 6 4 440 9
486 2
367 2
3 7 8 4 427 8
459 2
448 9
514 4
482 8
551 1
539 0 565 6
585 4
599 9
556.7
527.7
542 .3
585.2
4714
571.6
515 9
595.1

-90.6
-90 1
501.1
495 6
591 7
585 .7

-0.5
4 .7
4 .4
4 2

13.6
17.0
6 .1
5 9
2 .5
1 .7

21.5
189
2 .7
1 9
-1 4
-1.6

250
255
252
256
253
257

0 3437 1 3 6 7 8 . 7 3 5 7 3 . 0 3 6 3 1 . 8 37 0 8 , 0 3802 .0 385 0.8
NA
5 2 5 0 7 1 2 6 8 3 . 4 26 08 9 2 6 5 2 0 27 02 8 2 7 6 9 . 9 2 8 1 6 . 4 2 8 7 2 . 6
322 6
312 9
308 9
306 8
326 0
323 9
310 1
9
286 7
184
17 8
18 1
124
17 4
205
2
205
17 9
310 4
316 2
NA
3 298 9
305 2
322 0 3 1 6 1
298 3
353 6
338 3
348 1
358 3
369 5
382 1
0 331 9
373 9

2 .5
2 .5
6 .3
13 3
-1 8
3 1

1 .3
1 .7
-0.6

1 2

NA
2 .0
-0 4
12 7
NA
2 2

220
280
282
284
2 86
288

NA
NA
130.6
NA
3.8

8.4
0.1
98.3
-25.2
2 .0

3.9
1. 1
4.1
11.5
0.1

NA
NA
-12.9
NA
-0.6

290
295
292
298
293

A.r., bil. dol
do

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars

Total
Total in 1982 dollars. .
Fixed investment ...
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 3

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
A r bil dol
,.do.
do
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260
261
262
263
266
267

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars

250
255
252
256
253
257

Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 3
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

. ..

A5. Foreign Trade

do
do
do
do
do
do

3 5
2 .4

A6. National Income and Its Components
220
280
282
284
286
288

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest

do
do
do
. do
do
do

3234
2367
255
9
2 82
319

.do.
do.
.do.
.do.

560.4 539.2
537.2
533.5
549.0
560.0 561.0
539.8
104.2
130.8
121.7
125.4
- 1 3 1 . 8 -144.4 -104.9 -140.6
4.0
3.2
4.2
4.4

o
o

A7. Saving
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving
Business saving
Personal saving ,
Government surplus or deficit 3
Personal saving rate3.

Percent.

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




542.4
555.5
69.5
-82.6
2.2

603.4
556.8
569.6
570.0
72.6
144.0
-85.5 -110.7
2.3
4.3

627.0
576.4
149.9
-99.2
4.4

2
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
1

Table 1.

Basic data2

of

Percent change

Annual average
1987

4th Q
to
IstQ

IstQ
to
2dQ

1988

1988

1988

1988

Apr.

4th Q
1986

to
May

May
to
June

IstQ

2dQ

1987

1988

1988

Apr.
1988

May

June

1988

1988

Series number

Series title and timing classification

1

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit— Con.
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119 Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills3 0
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds3©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3©
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks3©
Outstanding Debt:
66 Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3

L.U.U.... Mil. dol
L,Lg,U....
do

93
836

L Lg Lg Percent
do
C,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
do
C,Lg,Lg....
U,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do

6.80
5.97
9.23
8.14
7.32
9.91
8.11
8.33

241
756

245
782

6.66
5.83
9.69
8.63
7.64

10.37

10.16
8.09
8.20

6.92
6.00

42 -1,956 - 2 , 1 3 4 - 1 , 5 3 8 - 2 , 1 9 5
1,077
2,993
2 , 5 7 8 3,083
2 ,885

Lg Lg Lg

do
Percent

349.15 3 5 4 . 2 6

9.06
7.83

9.24
7.91

9.04
7.78

10.65

10.46

10.84

10.65

0.22
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.10
0.38

8.49
8.78

8.50

8.84

9.00

0.34

9.24
8.20

10.10

8.47
8.87

8.37
8.59

7.16
6.23

349.88 3 5 9 . 3 6 3 6 5 . 5 6 3 6 7 . 3 9 3 6 5 . 9 2 3 6 3 . 3 6
15.60

15.80

113.9
109.6
0.1
109.0
100.2
100.0

117.7
113.6
0.4
113.5
102.8
102.6

118.9
115.4
0.3
114.9
104.2
104.1

119.4
116.1
0.3
115.5
104.8
104.6

0.16

7.51
6.50

10.08

10.76

15.64

-0.17
-0.20
-0.13
-0.19

7.09
6.27

10.25

10.08

15.59

657
505

6.87
5.92
9.92
8.91
7.81

6.66
5.76
9.64
8.61
7.64

NA 6 3 3 . 3 4 6 3 5 . 7 6
Lg Lg Lg Bil. dol., EOP ... 5 7 1 . 8 3 6 1 3 . 0 2 613.02 6 2 9 . 4 8
NA
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol
3 4 9 . 7 1 364.12 3 6 4 . 4 6 3 7 6 . 4 9 3 8 9 . 5 5 3 8 8 . 7 0 3 8 9 . 7 1 3 9 0 . 2 5
Lg Lg Lg

-596
-415

NA

15.85

15.84

120.6
117.5
0.3
117.1
106.6
106.1

117.1
0.4
116.5
105.8
105.6

117.5
0.3
117.0
106.5
106.1

NA

0.4
0.3
-0.4

0.42
0.23

NA
0.1
-0.7

-0.01

NA

0.3

0.4
0.
0.6
0.8
0.4
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.4

203
295

1,998
1,808

93
94

-0.26
-0.24
-0.73
-0.63
-0.56
-0.66
-0.10
-0.28

0.50
0.47
0.44
0.45
0.19
0.55
0.12
0.19

119
114
116
115
117
118
67
109

2.7
3.3

NA
3.5

66
72

2 .7

1.7

101

NA

95

1.0
1.2
0.
1.4
1.7
1.4
2.4
1.7
0.7
1.2

31C
32C
32C
322
33(
33!
33J
33:
33'
33'

0.20

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Bl. Price Movements
310.
320.
320c
322
330
335
331.
332.
333
334

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
1982 = 100
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©.... 1982-84 = 100.
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Percent
Consumer price index for all urban consumers food
1982-84=100.
1982=100
Producer price index (PPI) all commodities ©
do
PPI industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
do
do
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
do
PPI capital equipment
do
PPI, finished consumer goods

118.0
0.3
117.7
107.4
106.5

93.7

95.2

94.2

96.5

95.3

96.4

97.7

109.7
101.4

101.5
111.7
103.6

103.5
112.1
104.3

104.5
113.0
104.3

106.3
113.8
105.6

105.6
113.4
105.1

106.2
113.8
105.6

107.2
114.2
106.0

169.4

173.5

175.4

176.8

178.4

178.0

178.6

178.5

95.0

94.0

93.7

93.7

93.4

93.6

93.5

93.2

181.2
100.2
109.5
107.5

186.3

188.7

190.2

87.7
99.1

-0.1

0.4
0.7
0.5
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.5

0.4
0.6
0.
0.5
0.6
0.5
-1.1

1.0
0.8
0.

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
346 Real average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector

1977 = 100

do
do
do
do
do

99.4

99.2

99.2

110.5
108.4

110.9
108.8

111.8
109.8

0.3
-0.1

-0.1

0.8

-0.3

0.
0.8
0.
0.8
0.9

NA
NA
NA
NA

0.9
-0.3

NA
NA
NA
NA

341

34
34!
34i
37
35

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441
442.
37.
444.
445
446
447

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451 Males 20 years and over 3
452 Females 20 years and over 3
453 Both sexes 16-19 years of age3

Millions
do
Thousands
do
do
do
do
Percent
do
do

117.83 119.86 120.57 121.14 121.26 121.32 120.98 121.47
109.60 112.44 113.49 114.21 114.64 114.71 114.20 115.02
8,237
7 , 0 8 2 6 , 9 2 8 6,616
6,610
6,455
7,425
6,783
3,124
3,072
2,870
3,369
3,105
2,950 2,909
3,751
2,473
3,032
2,542
2,465
2,442
2,481
2,709 2,615
1,454
1,112
1,347
1,342
1,282
1,200
1,259
1,230
6,708
5,979 5,670 5,550 5,277
5 ,302
5,111
5 ,418
78.1
55.5
54.7

78.0
56.2
54.7

77.9
56.5
55.1

78.0
56.7
54.9

78.0
56.6
54.8

78.2
56.7
54.2

77.9
56.4
54.0

77.8
56.6
56.2

-0.3
-0.4

0.4
0.7

0.5
0.6

0.1
0.4

2.6

-4.8

-2.2

-4.5

1.6

-0.3
-9.6
-5.7

-2.8
-4.5
-2.1

-3.0
-6.4
-4.9

-2.3

2.2

-0.3
-0.3
-0.2

-0.1

0.2
2.2

0.1
0.2
-0.2

0.
-0.1
-0.1

44
44
3
44
44
44
44
45
45
45

D. Government Activities
Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts..
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures.

A.r., bil. dol.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.

do

- 2 0 5 . 6 - 1 5 7 . 8 -160.4 - 1 5 5 . 1
NA
828.3
916.5
944.4
951.0
NA
1033.9 1074.2 1104.9 1106.1 1104.9
61.2
52.9
49.7
55.8
NA
623.0 655.7
666.9
685 .5
NA
617.2
561.9
602.8
629.7
642.2

5.3
0.7
0.1
6.1
2.8
2.0

NA
NA
-0.1

NA
NA
2.0

5(
5(
5(
5.'
5.
5.

D2. Defense Indicators
517.
525.
548.
557
570
564

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production defense and space equipment
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense

Mil. dol

do
do
1977 = 100
Thousands
A r bil dol

NA
29,988 30,812 28,186 31,998
NA 3 3 , 1 7 2 3 2 , 2 9 4
11,998 1 2 , 0 3 2 10,636 10,284
NA
NA 1 6 , 2 2 2 14,301
9,099
9,210
9,596
9 , 1 5 5 11,113 9 , 9 5 8
8,102 1 5 , 2 8 0
182.0
188.9
188.6
189.3
187.1 187.9
190.5
187.9
NA
1,585
1,589
1,592
1,594
NA
1,588
1,587
277.5
295.3
299.2
298.4
295.7

Mil. dol.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.

18,930 21,176 23,107 2 5 , 2 9 4
2,164
2 ,400
2,867
2,491
3,907
4,428
5 ,050
5,220
30,453 33,853 35,956 36,210
2,894 3,471
3,410
3,434
5,578 5,896
6,559 5,592

-2.6

-11.8
-18.6
-0.8
-0.1

NA
NA
88.6

0.4
NA

13.5
-3.3
-4.6

0.6
0.1
-0.3

NA
NA
21.4
-1.4

NA
-0.9

5
5
5
5
5
5

E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products .
Imports of automobiles and parts




NA 2 6 , 0 2 6 2 6 , 6 2 3
NA 3 , 0 3 0 3 , 3 2 7
NA 5 , 2 8 8
5,374
NA 3 4 , 8 2 5 3 6 , 0 3 8
NA
3,226
3,802
NA
6 , 2 2 0 5 ,507

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2.3
9.8
1.6
3.5
17.9

-11.5

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

9.5
15.1

3.4
0.7
0.7
-14.7

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

6
6
6
6
6
6

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data 2

Series title and timing classification1

of

Percent change

1

Annual average
1986

1987

4th Q
1987

IstQ
1988

80.83
35.91
78.06

78.41
32.03
78.93

2dQ
1988

Apr.
1988

4th Q
to
IstQ
1988

May
to
June
1988

Apr.
to
May
1988

June
1988

May
1988

IstQ
to
2dQ
1988

.2

1. CYCLICAL !NDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment- Con.
Business Investment Commitments— Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings floor space
L C U. . Mil. sq. ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
97 Backlog of capital appropriations mfg 5
C Lg Lg
Bil. dol., EOP ...
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

77.06
21.42
69.72

80.73
29.79
78.06

71.76
NA
NA

75.49

C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil. dol

3 9 1 . 4 4 4 0 6 . 2 6 4 2 4 . 9 6 440.11 4 5 2 . 0 7 4 4 4 . 0 9 4 5 4 . 2 7 4 5 7 . 8 6
152.3
156.1
154.6
139.5
144.5
148.9
157.3
156.5
473.4
489.2
433.1 445. 1 464.8

9
11
97

4.7

61

0.8
0.5

3.6
2.3
1.9

2.7
2.5
3,3

69
76
86

5.1
4.0

-3.7
-3.1
-1.7

-0.2
5.4
0.7

28
29
89

7.9

379.47 388.60 409.37 409.73 429.01

do
C,Lg,Lg....
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100
C,Lg,C.... A.r., bil. dol

0.3

-8.5
NA
NA

-1.1

69.98

-3.0
-10.8
1.1

0.1

69.80

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28 New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., thousands ..
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol

1,805
141.2
195.0

1,620
123.0
195.2

1,477
110.4
189.5

1,474
116.4
190.8

67.1

66.0

45.0

41.39
81.3

50.14
41.0
1.90

2.3
1.2

1,533
113.9
192.7

1,584
115.6

1,384
114.5

NA
NA

31.05
46.5

19.41
53.0

NA

3.33

1,454
119.1

-12.6
-1.0

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30 Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31 Change in mfg and trade inventories3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order3 .. .
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order5

L,L,L...

do

15.4

34.4

L,L,L...
ILL

do
do

7.01
1.7

29.70
52.7

-0.29

1.67

L L,l

Bil. dol

2.17

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 6 5 7 . 1 2 7 0 9 . 8 5 7 0 9 . 8 5 7 2 0 . 10
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
644.74 674.91 674.91 684.40
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
1 0 3 . 2 3 1 0 7 . 5 7 1 0 7 . 5 7 109.15
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio

1.55

1.52

1.53

1.54

L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 2 2 6 . 6 4 2 4 6 . 6 7 2 4 6 . 6 7 2 5 2 . 3 8

-21.0

30

NA -11.64
NA
6.5

NA
NA

8.75
-40.3

NA
NA

36
31

1.83

NA

NA

-0.27

NA

38

NA 7 2 3 . 9 7 7 2 8 . 3 9
NA 6 8 5 . 2 8 6 8 6 . 1 1
NA 109.12 1 0 9 . 3 5

NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA

1.4
1.4
1.5

NA
NA
NA

71
70
65

NA

NA

-1.50

0.6
0.1
0.2

NA

0.01

NA

77

NA 2 5 5 . 7 1 2 5 7 . 5 4

NA

0.7

NA

2.3

NA

78

-0.07
301.6
0.32

0.37
309.5
0.46

0.52
1.4
0.11

0.44
2.6
0.14

-0.74
-0.7
-0.85

-0.72
4.0
0.12

98
23
99

1.1

1.9

19

1.54

1.54

0.

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99 Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3

L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... Percent

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (u)

L,L,L... 1941-43=10... 2 3 6 . 3 4 2 8 6 . 8 3 2 5 5 . 3 8 2 5 8 . 1 2 2 6 3 . 1 4 2 6 2 . 6 1 2 5 6 . 1 2 2 7 0 . 6 8

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
do
L,L,L...
do
L,C,L...
do
L,C,L...
L,L,L... Cents
L,L,L... 1977 = 100

129.8
118.6
192.3
181.2
3.7
99.2

142.9
127.1
176.6
160.7
4.8
99.6

145.7
128.2
179.9
162.4
4.4
99.5

149.4
131.2
179.3
161.3
6.3
99.6

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2.5
2.3
-0.3
-0.7
1.9
0.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

16
18
79
80
15
26

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., bil. doi
do
L,L,L...

378.2
379.0

396.6
396.7

402.4
402.6

407.3
405.0

NA
NA

1.2
0.6

NA
NA

34
35

0.1

NA

63

NA

68

0.4
0.5

0.1
0.1

62
62

0.2

NA

64

0.39
0.52
0.42
0.1
0.9

0.04
-0.21
NA
0,3
0.7

85
102
104
105
106

0.022
0.013
0.003 -0.007 -0.003

107
108

NA
-5.69
NA
NA

NA
8.88
25.68
1.1
-27.5

NA
1.89
NA
NA
NA

33
112
113
111
110

NA

0.28

NA

39

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
1977 = 100
63 Unit labor cost business sector
Lg Lg Lg
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
Dollars
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg....
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg Lg,Lg... 1977 = 100
*b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of

do

0.43
228.9
0.16

1.37
274.5
0.98

1.36
293.2
1.06

0.62
291.2
0.21

-0.10
302.8
0.33

166.9

170.3

171.8

171.9

0.732

0.738

0.736

136.7
99.6

136.2
99.2

136.7
99.7

136.9
99.8

73.0

73.0

72.9

5.7

NA

138.0
100.6

-2.5

NA

0.719

-0.59
297.3
0.21

73.1

-0.3
136.9
99.8

136.6
99.6

137.2
100.0

-0.2
-0.2

0.4
0.4

NA

67. Money and Credit
Money:
85 Change in money supply Ml3
102. Change in money supply M23
104 Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
*106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112
113.
•111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted*)3 5




do
L,L,L...
do
L,C,U...
do
L LL
L,L,L... Bil. dol
do
L LL
C,C,C... Ratio
do
C,Lg,C...

0.29
1.32
0.27
0.76
0.38
0.65
631.8
587.0
2366.2 2430.4

6.370
1.315

6.084
1.321

0.
0.81
0.93
0.58
0.15
0.54
0.76
0.82
0.38
0.24
0.55
0.45
0.73
NA
0.95
NA
0.31
0.63
633.4
630.5
631.4
633.7
634.7
631.7
2425.3 2446.3 2464.2 2462.3 2463.6 2466.6

6.191
1.348

6.213
1.341

NA
NA
NA
NA
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
10.67
34.68
43.56
8.73
do
L,L,L...
40.17
54.08
do
41.19
65.85
L,L,L...
6.6
8.8
5.9
9.9
L,L,L... A.r., percent....
625.70 532.18 642.96 466.36
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol

L,L,L... Percent, EOP ..

2.26

2.47

2 .47

2.19

6.226
1.338

1.336

NA
NA
4 5 . 4 5 117.80
NA
46.21
NA
12.4
NA

NA

NA

1.337

NA
12.12
29.05
5.5

NA

1.340

-0.93
-0.44
-0.32
-0.3
0.1

0.001

NA
NA
6 . 4 3 -105.68
NA -17.16
NA
-6.9

NA

NA

0.81
0.07
NA
0.5
0.1

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data2

Series title and timing classification

1

of

Percent change

Annual average
1986

1987

4th Q
1987

IstQ
1988

Apr.
1988

2dQ
1988

May
1988

June
1988

Apr.
to
May
1988

May
to
June
1988

4th Q
to
IstQ
1988

IstQ
to
2dQ
1988

Series number

1

Table 1.

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910
920
930
940.

Eleven leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio> coincident index to lagging index

1967 = 100
ILL
do
C C C. .
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
L,L,L...

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917 Money and financial flows

L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L.L,L...
L,L,L...

do
do
do
do

179.3
164.7
141.9
116.1

189.4
169.7
142.4
119.2

191.0
173.4
142.8
121.4

191.6
175.0
145.0
120.7

192.7
176.6
147.1
120.1

192.9
175.9
146.8
119.8

191.3
176.3
146.6
120.3

194.0
177.5
147.8
120.1

-0.8
0.2
-0.1
0.4

1.4
0.7
0.8
-0.2

0.3
0.9
1.5
-0.6

0.6
0.9
1.4
-0.5

910
920
930
940

109.5
103.4
119.0
143.9

NA
106,2
121.8
145.8

NA
107.4
119.9
146.7

NA
107.1
NA
147.7

NA
106.0
NA
NA

NA
105.9
NA
151.5

NA
105.9
NA
150.3

NA
106.3
NA
NA

NA
0.
NA
-0.8

NA
0.4

NA
-0.3
NA
0.7

NA
-1.0
NA
NA

914
915
916
917

41.0
3.9
292

-0.5
0.
-3.7

0.
0.
4.9

0.2
0.1
8.3

1
21
5

-0.002
-2.5

0.043

1.3

60
46

0.8
0.6
1.0
0.6

1.0
0.5
0.8
0.9

48
42
41
40

0.11

90

NA
NA

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
81. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1 Average weekly hours mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42 Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4)
43 Unemployment rate (inverted4)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv. 4 ) 3
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3

Hours
ILL
do
L,C,L...
L,C,L... Thousands.

40.7
3,4
370

41. 0
3.7
320

41.1
3.9
296

41.0
3.8
325

41.1
3.9
298

41.2
3.9
296

41.0
3.9
307

L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100

0.500
138

0.615
153

0.671
160

0.669
156

0.712
158

0.711
158

0.702
160

U,C,C.... A.r., bil. hrs
Millions
U CC
do
C.C.C....
L,C,U.... Thousands

185.15
106.43
99.52
24,558

190.14
109.23
102.31
24,784

192.99
110.27
103.68
25,116

194.51
110.97
104.67
25,260

196.41
111.53
105.54
25 ,489

196.33
111.48
105.28
25,435

196.10
111.16
105.50
25,464

196.80
111.93
105.85
25,569

59.94

60.77

61.10

61.33

61.44

61.52

61.20

61.59

8,237
7.0
2.8
15.0
1.9

7,425
6.2
2,4
14.5
1.7

7,082

6,928

6,616

6,610

6,783

2.1
14.1
1.5

2.3
14.2
1.4

L),Lg,U.... Percent

L,Lg,U....
LLgU
L,Lg,U....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....

Thousands
Percent

do
Weeks
Percent

0.724 -0.009
157
1.3

-0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.32

0.022
-1.9

0.4
0.7
0.3
0.4

0.39

-0.2
-0.1
-9.8

0.23

2.1
13.4
1.3

2.1
13.8
1.3

6,455
5.3
2.1
12.9
1.2

-2.6
-0,2
0,
-3.0
0.

4.8
0.3
0.
6.5
0.1

2.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.7
0.1

4.5
0.3
0.2
5.6
0.1

37
43
45
91
44

3721.7 3847.0 3923.0 3956.1 3986.3
3 0 8 8 . 3 3163.5 3214.6 3 2 3 3 . 6 3 2 4 4 . 9 3 2 4 0 . 7

3239.6

3254.3

0.

0.5

0.8
0.6

0.8
0.3

50
52

2.1
13.4
1.3

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50 Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction

C,C,C.... A.r., bil. dol
do
C.C.C....
C C,C..

do

C,C,C....

do

0.1

0.5

0.2

0.4

51

557.9

556.7

556.8

560.1

0.

0.6

0.8

0.7

53

134,5
136.0
138.4
140.9
141.4
142.1
1748.1 1763.1

135.4
139.7
142.1

136.1
141.2
142.1

136.6
141.7
142.2

0.5
1.1
0.

0.4
0.4
0.1

1.0
1.1
1.2
2.0

1.1
1.8
0.5
0.9

47
73
74
49

82.9
83.0

83.2
83.4

83.2
83.7

0.3
0.4

0.
0.3

0.4
-0.3

0.4
0.8

82
84

-1.9
-2.2

8.8
8.2

1.8
0.6

4,0
3.1

(

1.3
-4.20
0.1
4

-1.2
8.47
2.2
4

-0.4
0.84
2.7
-1

2.4
1.15
3.5
-2

I
2!
9i
3

0.9
0.2
0.5
0.3
-0.2

NA
NA
0.2
0.5
0.3

1.4
1.5
1.4
2.2
2.3
4.6
6.8

NA
NA
0.8
1.4
0.2
3.1
1.4

5
5
7
5
5
5
5

-1.2
NA

1
1

2632.5 2704.1 2756.4 2 7 6 2 . 0 2 7 7 3 . 9 2768.0 2769.7 2784.1
543.9

544.8

549.9

125.1
128.4
130.1
1599.0

129.8
133.1
136.8
1663.3

133.2
136.9
139.7
1713.9

81.0
80.5

82.3
82.9

Industrial Production:
*47 Industrial production
73 Industrial production durable mfrs
74 Industrial production nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

C.C.C.... 1977 = 100
do
C.C.C....
do
C,L,L...
C.C.C.... A.r., bil. dol

Capacity Utilization:
82 Capacity utilization rate mfg3
84 Capacity utilization rate materials3

L,C,U.... Percent
do
L CU

79.7
78.6

L,L,L... Bil. dol
do
L,L,L...

99.93
92.94

554.1

82.7
82.6

83.1
83.4

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 (u)
Consumption and Trade:
56 Manufacturing and trade sales
*57 Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75 Industrial production consumer goods
54 Sales of retail stores
59 Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment (u)

107.54 112.56 114.59
98. 10 101.40 101.98

119.20 117.27
105.14 103.87

115.10 1 2 5 . 2 3
101.59 109.95

86.17
80.83
84.73
87.87
do. .. .
85.80
87.46
88.60
87.56
ILL
-0.10
do
2.33
2.67
4.66
4.64
0.44
L,L,L...
3.51
8.91
L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 3 6 1 . 8 6 3 8 9 . 6 6 3 8 9 . 8 6 4 0 0 . 4 0 4 1 4 . 3 8 4 0 5 . 0 3 4 0 5 . 4 8 414.38
L,L,L... Percent
52
61
62
66
69
68
66
70

425.08

Bil. dol

452.87 465.41 4 7 2 . 0 3

NA 4 7 9 . 5 3

483.68

NA

C CC
C,C,C....
C LC
CLU
ULU
L,C,C....
L,L,L...

do
418.36 432.86 4 3 7 . 2 1 443.73
NA 4 4 5 . 4 7 4 4 6 . 4 2
NA
124.0
127.8
129.4
131.8
131.2
132.7
132.3
132.5
1977 — 100
119.79 125.88 1 2 7 . 5 6 1 3 0 . 3 8 132.18 131.72 132.05 1 3 2 . 7 7
Bil. dol
do .. .. 112.20 113.52 113.75 116.34 116.63 116.67 116.45 116.77
136.3
130.0
128.0
138.0
A.r., bil. dol
133.9
94.8
86.4
90.6
92.3
91.2
94.8
93.6
94.7
I Q 1966 =100.

ILL
ILL

Number

3.9

-0.1

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
12 Net business formation
13 New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




1967 = 100

120.4
121.1
122.6
124.4
5 8 , 4 7 4 57 , 0 5 3 5 5 , 3 8 3 5 7 , 3 6 8

122.8
122.9
NA 5 4 , 8 4 1

122.3
NA

123.7
NA

-0.4
NA

1.1
NA

1.5
3.6

38.13

37.61

37.51

36.01

39.30

-4.0

9.1

5.3

-1.4

1

L,L,L...
L,L,L...

do
do

34.17
26.56

37.75
29.64

39.47
31.46

42.34
33.68

41.47
33.19

41.51
33.49

39.98
31.50

42.93
34.57

-3.7
-5.9

7.4
9.7

7.3
7.1

-2.1
-1.5

2
2

L.L.L....

do

30.03

33.51

35.36

38.56

37.73

38.08

36.17

38.94

-5.0

7.7

9.0

-2.2

31.22

L,L,L... Bil. dol

34.51

36.21

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Basic Data

Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman
number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes
lOO-i

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
;pans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

H*~—•: t

^f^

i—iflLiuift

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Jroken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
ndicates percent changes over
i-or 4-quarter spans.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

10W TO LOCATE A SERIES
See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or-




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t r e c e i p t s ,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.

4



Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private labor force and its major components: Total
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
(A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
and purchases from business and from abroad. It force.
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
Section D, Government Activities
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surtheir current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators.
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production,
international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the
attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede prothe factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders,
duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity."
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
government surplus or deficit.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1976.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price in
dexes (plotted for the period since 1976) provid(
important measures of the rates of inflation in th(
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (als(
shown beginning in 1976) tend to be significant a:
leading indicators.

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.}
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are other indexes based on leading indicators that
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include many
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
11 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs,
all but one component of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,LF" all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 21 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18
series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N.

Economic
N. Process

Cyclical \,
Timing
N^

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
Economic
\Process

Cyclical^,
Timing
N.

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

\v

Industrial
production
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits and profit
margins (2 series)

Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1976.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis, produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

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BBC

COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
INDICATORS: June 1988

The corposite index of leading indicators increased 1.4 percent in June to 194.0
(1967=100), according to preliminary estimates released August 2 by the Commerce
Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
On the basis of more complete data, the index decreased 0.8 percent in May and
increased 0.3 percent in April. A month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that showed
the index decreased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. Change in
credit outstanding was the major contributor to both the May and April revisions.
Seven of 9 indicators available for June contributed to the increase in the index.
They were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: stock prices,
vendor performance (i.e., companies receiving slower deliveries from vendors),
contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, average weekly initial
claims for state unemployment insurance, building permits, change in sensitive
materials prices, and money supply in 1982 dollars.
One of 9 indicators made a negative contribution: manufacturers1 new orders for
consumer goods and materials in 1982 dollars.
One indicator was unchanged: average workweek.
The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate
economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in June to 177.5 (1967=100). On the basis of
more complete data, the index increased 0.2 percent in May and decreased 0.1 percent
in April.
The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.8 percent in June to 147.8
(1967=100). On the basis of more complete data, the index decreased 0.1 percent in
May and increased 0.8 percent in April.
The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic
activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected
to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to
confirm the movements in the coincident index.
These concepts are explained more fully in the 1984 edition of Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (price $5.50, stock number 003-010-00127-5), which is available from the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.
More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 104 of this
issue of Business Conditions Digest.
A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite indexes and their components immediately upon their release. The message is updated weekly to include recently available data for composite index components that
will be incorporated into the next release.
Next release date; August 30 for the July composite indexes.




3. The series on sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (series 59) has been revised for 1978 forward to reflect the recent revision in current-dollar retail sales (see
item 1 on page iii of the April 1988 BCD) and the revision in the national income and
product accounts (see item 1, above).
The series on manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (series 57) and the ratio
of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (series 77) have been revised for 1978 forward to incorporate the revised retail sales data.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
4. The series on employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 48) has
been revised by the source agency for 1983 forward to reflect the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. (See item 1 on page iii of the June 1988 BCD.)
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Structure and Trends,
Division of Monthly Industry Employment Statistics.
5. The series on free reserves (series 93) and member bank borrowings from the
Federal Reserve (series 94) have been revised by the source agency for 1959 forward to
reflect an adjustment in reserve requirements and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking
Section.
6. The series on real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (series 341) has been revised by the source agency
for 1983 forward to incorporate recomputed seasonal adjustment factors for the consumer
price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W).
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research.
7. The diffusion indexes of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory
workers in manufacturing (series 961) have been revised for 1983 forward to reflect a
change for some industry components from seasonally adjusted data to not seasonally adjusted data or vice versa.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Structure and Trends,
Division of Monthly Industry Employment Statistics.
8. Appendix C contains historical data for series 1, 21, 40, 41, 48, 72, 101, 111,
112, 961, and 963.
9. Appendix 6 contains cyclical comparisons for series 30, 50, 76, and 91.




IV

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Business Conditions Digest,
Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
Changes in this issue are as follows:

comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment

1. Series based on data from the national income and
product accounts have been revised by the source agency for
1985 forward to reflect the incorporation of new source data
and new seasonal adjustment factors.
Revised data are shown in this issue for series 16, 18,
22, 30, 34-36, 49-53, 55, 59, 62, 64, 68, 70, 79-81, 86-89,
95, 107, 108, and 223 in section I-B; all series in section
II-A; series 310 and 311 in section II-B; and series 500-502,
510-512, 564, and 565 in section II-D.
Revised data for other series affected by these revisions (series 20, 27, 57, and 77) will be included in a future issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, National Income and Wealth Division.
2. Data on the value of construction put in place have
been revised by the source agency for 1982 forward to reflect
the incorporation of new component data and new seasonal adjustment factors. These revisions affect series 20 (contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1
1982 dollars)
for 1982 forward and series 69 (manufacturers machinery and
equipment sales and business construction expenditures) for
1985 forward.
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Construction Statistics Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The August issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on September 6.



methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

[Business Investment Expenditures—Ccjp
550500450-

Gross private ^residential fe^§vestment in 1982!

400350300250200- '

150-

100J

I Residential Construction Commitments jgHS Investment]
2.6-j
2.42.22.01.8-

1.61.41.2-

0.8 J

200180160140120100-

60-

240^
220-^
200180-

160140120100-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

BCII

JULY 1988




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Nov.
P

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Mar.
T

| inventory Investment]
> in business invlp in 1982 dote, Q (ann. r a t e l .

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on
JBB B
" r in 1982 dollars
U. doL; moving avg.-4-tep)

if i
H
1«
1

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
. rate, ML M;
avg.-6-term)

38. Chane in manufactu
and on order (bil,

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

ies, materials and supplies on

moving avg,—4-term)

74

75

76

77

78

79

|I

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



JULY 1988

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued

inventories on Hand and on Order

800700-

|ventories in 1982 dollars

600500400-

71. Manufacturing and t
jj m current doltarsj j

300-

200 J

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

JULY 1988




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

, 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials
J
i
(percent; I
i A fea^

| Sensitive Commodity Prices]

i'~-e:*!

<

j^Wv

23. Spot market prices, raw industrial m<iteri&tfex: 196/-100)
,

>W<»™"A?~

*

.» s3R

/

/s%:_

/||v

'" V

^
f

^/w-

^ «iusLi^Z ., tfi,

sf^/

x^

' i (>~A^

f

r- m
^/

«'t pMx^

18. Corporal^^afterjaxjn 1982 dollars, Q ^
X-

[Profits and Profit JVIargins]

:5'^V

r*^ if V

„"

'-^

_«r***^iw""j~

\

//?-<

..;^T 16. Corporate ^ofits after;%x in ciffiplars, Q
Sg
(arm. rate, NL (W.) ffm > f-1

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
2
Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

28




JULY 1988 KCII

CYCLICA
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

| Prof its and Profit Margins—Con. |

280n

240200-

Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

160120-

X

79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (arm. rate, biU
40 J

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic
IBeome, q (percent)

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
to corporate domestic income, Q (perc^ty'fuj
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing c<

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
, Q (index: 1 7 ^ )
9 11
;

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q

\

34. Corporate net

(ann.rate,bildol.)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

ItCII

JULY 1988




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS— Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits — Continued
Dec.

Nov.

P

Nov.

I

Mar.

P

T

nit Labor Costs and Labor Snare

63, Unit UMfHip |usine$$ sector, Q
(index:

68. Labor cost in
dollars per unit
domestic product
in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations/!) (dollars)

(

64. Comoensation of employees as a percent of national income,

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



JULY 1988

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
Dec.
P

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

Nov.
T

70

71

Mar.
T

Nov.
P

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCII JULY 1988



31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

| Credit Flows [

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (ami. rate, bil. dd)-

112, Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.;
^ttCD moving avg.—fefi^) [[JJ]

111. Change in Ipless and consumer credit putstamfing (arm. rate, percent}

116. Funds raised by private nonfinandal borrowers in credit
(am. rate, bil.

100-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32



JULY 1988

!!€!»

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

| Credit Difficulties |
14

of business failures {ff|dolMCD moving avg.-6-terg

foam delinquent 30 days aid over

OH

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

•

77

78

79

80

lL8SS

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

ItCII

JULY 1988




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Nov.
P

Mar.

T

|interest Rates)

fends rate (percent)

114. Discount lie on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills

Yield on new
P (percent) [!£ ~
JB

high-grade corporate bonds

Yield on long-term Treasury Mils

J
MA on miifflcioal bonds

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34



JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec. Nov.
P
T

Nov.

Mar.

July

Nov.

P

T

67. Bank rates on short-term business bans. 0 (percent)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

ISCIt

JULY

1988




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes

I Per cent rising I

950. Eleven leading indicator components1 (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—

lOO-i

50-

50-

0-

952. Six lagging indicator

|M(6-mo. span—, 1-mo, span" 100-

50-

0-

or nonsupervisory work
span—fl-mo. span—) •

weekly hours of
ting industries

100-

50-

0-

insurance, State programs, 51 areas

962. Irstiat claims for unempto
'*"* •

100-

50-

ral payrolls, 172-186 industries

span—, l-tnoli»|-4

lOO-i

50-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36



JULY 1988

CYCLICAL ^DlO
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Mar.
I

96f|f|anufacturer$f new o^||4-35 durable goods industria
100-1

50-

706050403020-

966.

production,

(6m span—, 1-mo.
lOO-i

50-

0 J

50-

100-

50-

0-

90 •
8070605040-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

ltd!

JULY 1988




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued

Actual
Anticipated

| PercentrisingI ||

Actual
Anticipated

[Percent rising]

strfes(l-Qspan)
ng and trade (4-Q span)1

974. Number of employees,

II
I

and trade (4-Q span)1

975. Level of inventories,

(4-Q span)1

971. l ^ e r s

... ... .£%*•

177. sammai.

973, Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38



85

86

87

1988

ed on surveys of about 1,400

JULY 1988

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
Dec.
P

Nov
T

x of eleven leading indicator!!
*

roi«hly coincident indicatej|
,-£«?

I

fl |i
|
«53*' 'S'xSs'x

in 1982 ddbrs(l-Q span) !

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
Walues of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.

9 JULY 1988



39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income

50004500400035003000-

200. Gross national product in current dote, Q (ann. rate, bii. dol.)

25002000-

1500-

223. Persona! income in current dollars
(ann. rate, bil. doi.)

J
1000

224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
45004000-

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q

3500-

v ann. rate, on. GOI.)
/ 4iMtft~^ywi» i%n «|A| \

3000250020QQ-

213. Final sates in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

225. Disposable personal
dollars, Q(flR.rate|pfp)
1500 -J

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
16'
141210-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
J dollars, Q (ann. rate, thousribL)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



JULY 1988

ltd*

OTHER IMPORTANT
A I

MEASURES

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

Personal consumption experatures— j|f|
£>&$•;;>'

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.

ItCII

JULY 1988




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

&oss private domestic investment—

245. Change in

inventories, Q

rate, blondoiars (I982)|

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

42



JULY 1988

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Dec. Nov.
P
T

Jan. July

July

P T

P

Nov.

T

rate, Mkm dollars (current))

Government purchases of goods and

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

JULY 1988




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
uly

Dec. N o v .

P

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

Nov.

T

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44



JULY 1988

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—-Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Ian, July

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

rate, bffion doiars (current))

286. Corporate
and capital

tax with

282. Proprietors' income with inventory v
capital consumption adjustments, Q

Rental income of persons v«tn c
consumption adjustment,

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

JULY 1988




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7, Saving

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



JULY 1988

IICII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Nov.

Jan. July

Mar.

P

T

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

I Percent of GNP]

and local government
265. Federal Government purchases of goods

248. Nonresidential fixed inv

249. Rest
fefc*%^
247. Change in business inventories, Q

Net exports of goods and

[Percent of National income]

tax with inventory valuation

Corporate
and capital

283. Proprietors1 income with inventory v
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
289. Net interest, Q

285, Rental income of persons
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

ItCII

JULY 1988




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart Bl. Price Movements
Jan. July

P

I

July

Jan. July

Nov.

P

T

P

Hndex:l$82-100l

310c.

T

July

Nov.

P

T

national woduct (1-0 span)

310. Implicit pi
national
domestic business product

Producer pnce indexes-

Producer price

am AH

Crude materials for
further processing

pplies, and components

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.

48



JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT

MEASURES

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued
Dec. N o v .
P
T

Nov.

Jan. July

T

July

Nov.

P T

Mar.

P

P

T

Consumer price indexes—

hourly earnings of
nonagricultural pa

Average hourly compensation, all
nonfarm business sector. 0 (

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItCII JULY

1988




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued

!Wages

Con

' Change in average hourly earnings of prockiction or nonayervisory waters on private nonagricuftiirai payrolls'-

340c. Current-ddlar earnings J l
i

I

. t

.1. .

iJin. H
H

34k, Real earnings

Change in average hourly
nonfarm business sector, Q—

Negotiated wage and benefit

ihanges over life of
I fade*: 1977^1001
358. Output per hour, all

nonfarm business sector
v
.j^jj

business sectfflll

' fif/Wf

III Change in output

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

ail persons, business secto§|

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50



JULY 1988

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT

MEASURES

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Jan. July

July

Nov.

P T

P

T

130120110100908070 J

Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)-

20 years and over

85-j
80757065-

xes 16-19 years of age

60555045-

452. Females 20 years and over

40141210-

Number unemployed (millions)

86-

445. Females 20 years
Males 20
and over

i
2-

Both sexes 16-19 years

1J

1210-

ed, full-time workers (

6-

448. Number of persons
reasons (millions)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

B€l»

JULY 1988




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures

Annual rate, billion dollars (current))

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52



JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Dec, Nov.
P
T
40-

I Advance H/leasures of Defense Activity]

3530-

252015 J

22201816141210-

6-*

240-1
220200180160-

140120100141210-

6-

548. Manufacturers' new

products

:

K I

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

ft
72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

KCII

JULY 1988




53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

ntermediate and Final Measures of
defense and snare pfHiinmfint

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

H

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

54



JULY 1988

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
I £) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Ian. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

I Intermediate and Final Measures of
2.0-j
1.81.61.4-

1.21.0-

personnel (millions)-

m
3.53.02.52.0-

1.5-

1.0-

400350300250200150-

100-

50 J

asapercentofGNP,Q(p*nt)
lO-i

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

ItCII

JULY 1988




55

OTHER IMPORTANT
E I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart El. Merchandise Trade

604, Exports of domestic
(bit. dol.)

616, imports of automobiles and

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56



JULY 1988

!!€!»

OTHER

MEASURES

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements

billion dollars I
! Excess of receipts

750650-

] Excess of payments

550450350-

250-

150-

50 J
650550450350-

250-

150-

50-

140-

100-

40-

20-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

BCD JULY 1988




57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production
Jan. July

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

I Index: 1977-1001
Industrial production—

1976 77

78

79

80

Index: 1977-100
Industrial production—

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

1988

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

58



JULY 1988

!€»
!!

OV.-ifcf- -v>0 J ' -

,*'.'."*

•/;•

MEASURES

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Chart F3. Stock Prices

[Percent change at annual rate|

I 6-month spans [

I Into: 1967=1001

Stock prices—

Consumer prices—
320c. United States

19. United States

ce
746. France

v>/s^ yvv\ ^

/ / V

735c. West Germany

iOO

745. West Germany
o

1976

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

1988

J

1976

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

1988

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

KCII

JULY

1988




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

0 COMPOSITE INDEXES
1

Year
and
month

910. Index of
eleven leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29, 32, 36, 99,
1
106, 111)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)

930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index 2

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,

101, 109)

29)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

2

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
111)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

3

( )

1986

January
February
March

174.1
175.0
176.4

162.9
163.4
162.9

140.5
141.1
142.3

115.9
115.8
114.5

108.9
110.2
109.9

103.3
103.3
103.5

117.3
119.0
119.8

142.2
140.3
140.0

April
May
June

178.1
178.5
178.3

165.6
164.3
163.7

140.5
141.4
141.6

117.9
116.2
115.6

110.4
109.5
109.6

103.8
103.5
103.0

119.9
119.7
120.4

140.3
142.4
142.6

July
August
September

179.9
180.3
179.9

164.4
164.8
165.8

141.8
142.2
141.6

115.9
115.9
117.1

109.8
108.8
108.9

103.3
102.9
102.8

120.0
120.4
118.9

144.9
145.6
145.5

October
November
December

181.2
182.7
186.7

165.4
165.8
167.4

143.7
143.4
142.4

115.1
115.6
117.6

108.4
108.6
111.0

102.8
103.6
104.9

117.8
117.4
117.9

147.3
146.8
149.2

January
February
March

185.5
186.0
187.6

165.6
168.2
168.0

144.6
142.1
141.3

114.5
118.4
118.9

108.9

104.4
104.6
105.3

119.3
120.8
121.5

148.9
147.0
145.4

April
May
June

187.6
188.6
190.5

168.0
167.6
168.2

141.8
142.0
142.6

118.5
118.0
118.0

105.3
106.0
106.7

121.3
121.3
122.9

144.5
144.1
145.6

July
August
September

r!90.9
HL91.7
r!91.9

r!69.8
r!70.6
r!70.7

r!41.8
141.6
r!43.0

rl!9.7
r!20.5
rl!9.4

107.1
106.3
106.6

124.2
Drl26.1
r!25.0

144.5
144.3
145.4

October
November
December

r!92.0
r!90.0
r!90.9

r!73.1
r!72.6
r!74.4

142.5
143.3
r!42.7

r!21.5
r!20.4
r!22.2

r!07.0
r!07.3
E>rl08.0

r!22.0
rl!9.0
rl!8.7

r!47.0
146.7
r!46.3

r!90.4
r!91.9
r!92.4

r!73.8
r!75.2
r!76.1

r!44.5
r!44.9
145.7

r!20.3
r!20.9
r!20.9

r!07.3
r!07.0
r!06.9

rl!9.4
r!20.0

r!46.5
r!47.6
r!48.9

r!92.9
191.3
H)M94.0

r!75.9
176.3
[H) 5 177.5

r!46.8
146.6
E> 6 147.8

rl!9.8
r!20.3
p!20.1

r!05.9
r!05.9
p!06.3

1987

(NA)

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

B)rl51.5
p!50.3
(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by |H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
2
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 940 (130.0) in January 1984, and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii of the March 1987 issue. ^Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not
available. 5Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 6Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60



JULY 1988

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

m EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, C, L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing

(Hours)

L,C,L

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1

(Hours)

L, L, L

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

(Thous.)

L, Lg, U

U,C, C

L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

(1967 = 100)

(Ratio)

48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments

Revised 2

1986

January
February
March

40.8
40.6
40.7

3.5
3.4
3.5

375
384
393

0.519
0.484
0.486

137
137
136

184.60
183.90
184.36

April
May
June

40.8
40.7
40.6

3.4
3.5
3.4

374
378
378

0.487
0.476
0.504

137
135
143

184.45
184.53
184! 48

July
August
September

40.6
40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5
3.5

370
379
369

0.492
0.506
0.502

137
138
140

184.78
185.34
185.77

October
November
December

40.7
40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5
3.6

343
342
356

0.503
0.525
0.518

139
145
138

186.12
186.62
186.86

January
February
March

40.9
41.1
41.0

3.6
3.6
3.7

359
361
341

0.508
0.528
0.573

136
140
150

187.56
188.63
188.57

April
May
June

40.7
41.0
41.0

3.5
3.8
3.7

324
326
327

0.587
0.601
0.619

149
153
152

187.58
189.74
190.02

July
August
September

41.0
41.0
40.6

3.8
3.8
3.7

327
297
286

0.628
0.660
0.663

153
161
158

190.69
191.40
188.46

October
November
December

41.2
41.2
41.0

3.9
3.9
3.8

[H)284
293
312

0.672
0.680
0.661

162
155

192.76
192.99
193.22

41.1
41.0
40.9

3.9
3.7
3.7

351
321
304

0.646
0.669
0.691

153
156
158

193.56
195.04
194.92

r3.9
r3.9

296
307
292

0.711
rO.702
[H>p0.724

158

196.33
196.10
[H}pl96.80

1987

D162

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

H>41.2
r41.0
p41.0

H>p3.9

r!60
p!57

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

JULY 1988



61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

m EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Employment— Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

ufcfc
42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities

(Thous.)

C, C, C

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

(Thous.)

L, C, U

40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)

Comprehensive Unemployment
U, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed

L, Lg, U

43. Unemployment rate

(Thous.)

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

(Weeks)

U, Lg, Lg

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)

1986

January
February
March

105,597
105,427
105,640

98,788
98,887
98,973

24,832
24,752
24,688

59.87
59.61
59.74

7,847
8,427
8,330

6.7
7.2
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.0
15.4
14.6

1.8
2.0
1.9

April
May
June

105,793
105,938
106,495

99 136
99 ',262
99 170

24,679
24^587
24 499

59.74
59.73
60.02

8,373
8,444
8,441

7.1
7^2
7 .1

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.6
14.7

1 .8

15 .1

r.9
1 .9

July
August
September

106,710
106,929
106,883

99,457
99,608
99,963

24,476
24,457
24,429

60.05
60.10
60.05

8,278
8,115
8,298

7.0
6.9
7.0

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.2
15.5
15.4

1.9
1.9
2.0

October
November
December

107,052
107,224
107,504

1UU , 1 L\J

1 nn i?n

£.*+

?d, H-6.O
d?R

8,230
s',214
7,919

6.9
6.9
6.7

2.7
2^7
2.6

1 9

24,429
24,471

60.07
6o!l5
60.20

15.2

100,349
100,571

15.0

1.9

January
February
March

107,840
108,119
108,218

100,795
101,016
101,260

24,501
24,533
24,536

60.30
60.43
60.43

7,964
7,886
7,791

6.7
6.6
6.5

2.6
2.6
2.6

15.0
14.8
14.9

1.8
1.8
1.7

April
May
June

108,556
109,065
109,108

101,615
101,829
102,078

24,596
24,653
24,684

60.57
60.79
60.72

7,557
7,573
7,308

6.3
6.3
6.1

2.5
2.4
2.4

14.8
14.8
14.7

1.7
1.7
1.7

July
August
September

109,427
109,907
109,688

102,430
102,672
102,906

24,788
24,851
24,902

60.84
61.02
60.87

7,251
7,256
7,091

6.0
6.0
5.9

2.3
2.3
2.2

14.2
14.3
14.2

1.6
1.6
1.6

October
November
December

109,961
110,332
110,529

103,371
103,678
104,001

25,025
25,123
25,201

61.00
61.11
61.19

7,177
7,090
6,978

6.0
5.9
5.8

2.1
2.1
2.1

14.1
14.0
14.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

110,836
111,182
110,899

104,262
104,729
105,020

25,180
25,271
25,330

61.33
61.44
61.23

7,046
6,938
6,801

5.8
5.7
5.6

2.3
2.3
2.2

14.4
14.4
13.7

1.4
1.4
1.4

111,485
111 ,160
0)111 ^933

r!05,281
r!05,502
0)pl05,'848

r25,435
r25,464
0)p25,569

61.52
61.20
H>61.59

6,610
6,783
1)6,455

5.4
5 6
0)5.3

2.1
2.1
0)2.1

13.4
13.8

1.3
1.3
0)1.2

is!o

l.*9

1987

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

0)12.9

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62




JULY 1988

RCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

E PRODUCTION AND INCOME
l

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C, C, C

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars

C, C, C

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

52. Constant
(1982) dollars

C, C, C

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars

C, C, C

53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction

C, C, C

47. Index of
industrial
production

C,C, C

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

C, L, L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

C,C,C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revised1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

January
February
March

3,719!3

3,439.3
3,459.8
3,483.0

3,022.2
3,053.7
3,079.6

2,575.6
2,604.1
2,626.5

540.3
539.8
548.0

126.4
125.5
123.9

129.8
128.9
127.4

128.6
128.2
127.3

1,604!?

April
May
June

3,711.6

3,516.5
3,514.5
3,521.0

3,109.2
3,093.8
3,088.6

2,654.6
2,638.3
2,632.5

545.2
544.9
541.4

124.7
124.3
124.1

128.5
127.7
126.9

128.9
129.7
130.2

1,598'.6

July
August
September

3,721.'3

3,532.9
3,545.4
3,561.7

3,090.9
3,093.7
3,091.8

2,629.0
2,636.0
2,634.2

542.5
544.0
542.7

124.8
124.9
124.5

128.1
127.9
128.4

130.6
131.1
130.3

1,595.3

October
November
December

3S734!}

3,579.6
3,595.5
3,623.6

3,101.9
3,107.6
3,126.5

2,643.2
2,649.2
2,666.8

548.2
544.9
545.0

125.3
125.7
126.8

128.6
129.0
129.7

131.2
131.7
133.4

1,59?!8

January
February
March

3,776*.7

3,641.3
3,683.5
3,703.4

3,114.9
3,142.9
3,143.8

2,655.8
2,682.5
2,685.4

543.0
542.4
545.6

126.2
127.1
127.4

129.3
130.8
131.5

132.7
132.9
133.7

1,616!2

April
May
June

3,823!6

3,725.0
3,736.3
3,747.1

3,146.1
3,142.4
3,138.3

2,687.1
2,678.7
2,678.7

539.8
541.7
542.1

127.4
128.2
129.1

130.9
131.4
132.0

134.6
135.7
136.9

1 5 645'.6

July
August .
September

3,865.3

3,778.6
3,803.7
3,820.8

3,159.4
3,167.1
3,162.9

2,698.7
2,707.8
2,705.4

542.5
544.3
546.5

130.6
131.2
131.0

133.5
133.8
133.7

138.5
138.8
138.6

1,677.5

October
November
December

3,923'.6

3,897.2
3,884.1
3,939.0

3,212.9
3,194.2
3,236.6

2,754.2
2,736.8
2,778.2

549.0
551.3
549.5

132.5
133.2
133.9

136.8
136.7
137.3

138.1
139.6
141.3

1,713.*9

3,956'.i

3,921.8
3,946.7
3,985.9

3,214.6
3,235.0
3,251.1

2,745.6
2,764.0
2,776.3

550.2
552.7
559.4

134.4
134.4
134.7

137.9
138.4
138.8

141.4
141.1
r!41.7

1,748.1

E)p3,986!3

3,995.8
4,013.9
E>p4,041.8

3,240.7
3,239.6
E>p3,254.3

2,768.0
2,769.7
Dp2, 784.1

556.7
556.8
E>p560.1

r!35.4
r!36.1
[H>pl36.6

r!39.7
141.2
[H>pl41.7

142.1
r!42.1
H)pl42.2

E>pl,763!l

1986

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977-100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised

1

1987

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," pag

JULY 1988



63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

H

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Continued

0 CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

L, C, U

Orders and Deliveries

L,C, U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,

84. Capacity
utilization rate,

UldflUldLlUling

L, L, L

U, L

L, L, L

8. Manufacturers' new
nrHprc in 1Q89
urucio in Lyoc.
dollars, consumer goods
and materials

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
7. Constant
(1982) dollars

6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bil. dot.)

(Bil. dot.)

25. Change in
manufacturers'

(Bil. dol.)

illdlcl Idlo

Year
and
month

L L, L

(Bil. dol.)

L, Lg, U

L, L, L

96. Manufacturers' unfilled

32. Vendor
performance,
cuinpdiiicb receiving slower
deliveries1©

UlUcii, UUldUlc

durable goods
industries1

goods industries

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

80.7
80.2
79.2

80.5
79.8
78.5

99.02
101.26
100.94

92.63
94.73
94.33

81.63
80.74
79.16

0.63
2.18
3.23

363.66
365.84
369.06

46
48
50

April
May
June

79.9
79.6
79.3

78.7
78.3
78.0

98.18
97.30
97.90

91.58
90.68
91.15

81.07
78.92
80.38

-2.76
-1.32
-1.70

366.30
364.98
363.28

50
55
50

July
August
September

79.7
79.6
79.4

78.1
77.9
77.7

99.68
96.30
102.95

92.72
89.50
95.59

79.18
80.04
82.66

-0.03
-1.88
2.29

363.24
361.36
363.65

54
51
52

October
November
December

79.5
79.6
80.2

77.9
78.5
79.1

99.98
99.98
105.68

92.48
92.32
97.58

81.25
79.54
85.34

-1.06
-0.03
-0.71

362.60
362.57
361.86

54
56
56

January
February
March

79.6
80.0
80.3

78.7
78.7
78.7

96.91
102.07
105.95

89.32
94.07
97.47

80.85
84.53
85.62

-2.34
-1.18
1.78

359.51
358.33
360.10

55
52
55

April
May
June

80.2
80.4
80.8

79.1
79.3

1 D7 . 1 A
1U/
It

^fid. H- 1
ODH . ZL1
AC}
. H-U

79'.8

July
August .
September

81.5
81.5
81.3

80.6
81.1

October
November
December

1987

11

4 . on
oU

r!08.79

QO
yo . 4-/
r97.94
r99.71

r83 .86
r85.66

r4.00
r3!88

r372.28

57
60
57

8K2

r!09.15
106.68
109.*34

r99.77
97 . 16
99.' 04

r84.19
83.69
85.71

r6.12
2 . 54
O.*91

378.40
380.94
381.85

62
60
69

82.0
82.2
82.6

82.1
82.9
83.6

111.10
110.95
115.62

100.45
99.95
103.79

85.96
85.89
86.66

2.84
2.57
2.59

384.70
387.27
389.86

70
66
71

82.7
82.6
82.7

83.0
82.3

r82.4

114.20
114.32
115.25

101.78
rl01.71
102.45

84.81
r86.14
86.46

5.25
3.80
1.49

395.11
398.91
400.40

68
66
69

82.9

r83.0

rl!7.27
rllS.10
[H)pl25.23

r!03.87
rl01.59
DP109.95

r87.46
[H)r88.60
p87.56

r405.03
r405.48
[H)p414.38

62
66
70

1 flfi . 7^
iUQ
/0

fl-J

O/l

o*f . l
i

r -3CQ
1 ODO

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

r83.2
[H>p83.2

83.4

[H)p83.7

r4.64
rO.44
p8.91

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1986:

64



series 25 (9.80) and series 32 (72) in March 1984.

JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C, C, C

C, L, C

C, C, C

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1982) dollars

(1977 = 100)

(Mil. dol.)

Revised

1986

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

C, L, U

L, C, C

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

2

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

H

JQ CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer 1
sentiment @

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Revised

L, L, L

2

Revised

L, L, L

12. Index of
net business
formation

(IstQ
1966 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

L, L,L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

2

January
February
March

424,255
419,113
415,757

410,619
410,402
408,781

123.6
122.9
121.4

117,524
116,599
116,184

108,718
108,971
109,504

124!l

95.6
95.9
95.1

119.3
120.8
121.5

57,580
58,799
58,365

April
June

421,251
417,160
422,098

418,028
412,321
414,156

123.8
123.8
123.7

116,905
118,259
118,314

110,810
111,670
111,407

129.2

96.2
94.8
99.3

122.4
120.7
120.3

58,937
58,257
57,558

July
August
September

420,678
423,115
436,761

417,733
419,699
430,515

124.5
125.0
123.6

118,821
120,308
127,115

111,779
112,754
E)118,467

D15K9

97.7
94.9
91.9

120.7
119.3
120.4

58,002
56,541
58,002

October
November
December

428,495
429,396
442,876

422,850
423,038
432,209

124.8
125.0
126.6

120,778
120,470
126,011

112,877
112,589
116,893

139!s

95.6
91.4
89.1

119.7
118.3
121.9

57,410
56,924
E>65,318

425,002
442,408
444,170

417,319
433,612
430,994

125.5
126.4
126.7

117,246
123,292
123,680

108,360
113,424
113,053

i2o!i

90.4
90.2
90.8

118.1
120.5
122.0

55,069
58,880
60,193

445,132
r448,483
r453,653

429,816
429,069
430,962

125.5
127.3
127.2

124,609
r!24,797
r!26,463

113,384
113,041
114,033

127!7

92.8
91.1
91.5

120.7
119.8
120,3

57,715
56,624
57,502

July
August
September

454,330
460,047
464,984

434,097
437,021
439,795

128.9
129.4
127.7

127,230
129,981
127,815

114,622
116,680
114,325

144.4

93.7
94.4
93.6

120.4
121.5
122.5

57,483
57,951
57,066

October
November
December

464,947
462,975
468,303

439,116
435,424
437,090

129.0
129.4
129.8

126,808
127,248
128,615

113,221
113,412
114,630

128!6

89.3
83.1
86.8

121.6
123.4
122.7

55,337
57,358
53,453

465,730
470,656
479,709

438,866
444,117
H> 448, 202

131.2
131.3
131.2

128,769
130,121
132,259

114,767
116,491
117,773

133^9

90.8
91.6
94.6

123.8
124.4
B>rl24.9

54,913
57,493
r59,698

r479,526
[H)p483,685
(NA)

445,467
p446,418
(NA)

r!31.8
r!32.5
[H)P132.7

r!31,717
r!32,054
(H)pl32,767

116,667
116,450
pl!6,770

pl38!6

91.2
94.8
94.7

r!22.8
r!22.3
p!23.7

p54,841
(NA)

May

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23.
1
Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1988



65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

|
Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

L, L, L

L, L, L

10. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

L, L, L

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, C , U

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1 2

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

U, Lg, U

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space 3

(Millions)

C, Lg, Lg

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations 2

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

n

1986

January
February
March

29.45
32.82
30.91

30.95
36.40
33.36

24.96
27.66
26.61

26.92
31.78
29.53

72.89
82.65
73.01

6.77
7.68
6.78

23.39

April
May
June

30.13
29.86
30.53

r32.29
r32.73
33.78

25.36
25.43
25.85

28.05
28.80
29.64

82.17
78.06
76.57

7.63
7.25
7.11

19*.99

July
August
September

30.97
29.83
31.86

r34.67
33.60
34.59

26.40
25.34
27.16

30.63
29.63
30.44

73.43
76.48
76.51

6.82
7.10
7.11

20.20

32.00
31.99
34.29

34.83
35.23
37.59

27.54
27.27
29.14

30.87
31.03
33.00

73.54
83.00
76.45

6.83
7.71
7.10

22.10

31.27
31.93
32.73

33.62
34.79
35.87

26.77
27.04
27.69

29.63
30.48
31.46

80.75
73.72
77.18

7.50
6.85
7.17

21.44

33.25
r34.56
r35.37

r36.73
r38.12
r38.80

28.53
r30.22
r30.08

32.60
r34.33
r33.76

78.14
76.74
84.28

7.26
7.13
7.83

32.26

7.87
7.87
7.99

r29.56

October
November
December

92.22

85^77

soiH
69.*72

1987

January
February
March
April
May
June

69.17

74!64

July
August
September

r36.53
34.69
34.66

r40.18
38.25
38.28

r31.74
29.54
29.75

r36.02
33.79
34.03

84.76
84.70
85.96

October
November
December

35.23
34.60
38.81

39.12
37.53
r41.75

30.42
30.08
33.88

34.94
33.64
37.49

82.21
75.90
84.37

7.64
7.05
7.84

[H)r35.91

38.60
38.84
36.95

@)r43.42
r42.72
r40.89

0)34.79
33.76
32.48

D40.17
38.40
37.10

69.43
91.89
73.91

6.45
8.54
6.87

p32.03

r37.51
r36.01
H>p39.30

r41.51
r39.98
p42.93

r33.49
r31.50
p34.57

r38.08
r36.17
p38.94

69.80
69.98
75.49

6.48
6.50
7.01

r74.55

r78.06

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

p78.93

(NA)
(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
lr
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 2The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 9 (93.19 square feet and 8.66
square meters) in September 1985, and series 97 (99.88) in 2d quarter 1985. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
^See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

66




JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q[ FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Timing Class

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year

and

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

61. Current
dollars

100. Constant
(1982) dollars

month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, U

C, Lg, C

69. Machinery
and equipment

76. Index of
industrial pro-

business
construction
expenditures

ness equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

U, Lg, Lg

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total

87. Structures1

Revised 2
1986

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

(1977 = 100)

C, Lg, C

Revised 2

L, L, L

L, L, L

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
thous.)

29. Index of
new private

89. Gross private residential

authorized by
local building
permits 1

28. New private housing

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

in 1982 dollars

(1967-100)

Revised 2

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 2

January
February
March

380.04

387.13

381.28
395.38
394.55

142.1
141.3
139.2

446.'8

145.1

301.7

1,938
1,869
1,873

147.3
140.9
141.9

185.5

April
May
June

376.21

379^25

395.58
382.91
388.76

139.6
138.6
137.2

432.8

126.7

306.1

1,947
1,847
1,845

148.2
143.3
142.7

195^7

July
August
September

375.'50

376.42

388.78
386.72
386.67

139.4
139.1
139.6

425.6

121.7

303.9

1,789
1,804
1,685

141.9
137.6
134.4

199.0

October
November
December

386 '.09

386.76

393.74
390.69
412.20

139.4
138.8
139.5

427.3

123.8

303^5

1 ,683
1,630
1,837

133.6
131.1
151.8

(H)199'7

January
February
March

374.23

374.49

372.53
388.89
396.19

138.6
141.7
141.9

418.2

m'.o

297.2

1 ,804
1,809
1,723

134.9
134.6
134.1

198^4

April
May
June

377.65

376.95

395.30
394.83
403.11

142.1
141.7
144.2

434.8

120.9

313.8

1,635
1,599
1,583

127.3
119.9
122.7

197.6

July
August
September

393.13

394.54

406.98
414.08
428.37

145.6
145.6
146.3

462.'8

128.0

334^7

1,594
1,583
1,679

120.4
120.7
119.7

192.1

October
November
December

409.37

409.35

418.80
417.35
438.73

148.7
148.3
149.8

464.8

132^1

332^7

1,538
1,661
1,399

115.9
116.3
109.4

192^7

0)409^73

[H>413!40

434.84
435.64
449.85

151.2
152.4
r!53.3

473^4

124 % .6

349.4

1,382
1,519
1,529

99.5
114.0
117.7

189^5

April
May
June

a429!6i

444.09
454.27
(H)p457.86

r!54.6
r!56.5
[H)pl57.3

rl,584

a433.43

[H}p489.2

pl27.*5

0)p361 .7

115.6
114.5
119.1

July
August
September

3438^22

a443!(36

October
November
December

a443.95

a450.'83

1987

1988
January
February
March

1,384
pi, 454

p!9CL8

See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1986:
(158.5) in February 1984.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1988



series 87 (151.4) in 2d quarter 1985, and series 28 (2 260) and series 29

67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0 INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Inventory Investment
L, L, L

L, L , L

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars 1

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories

Smoothed2

Actual

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Inventories on Hand and on Order
L, L, L

38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order
(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)

3

70. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods

(Bil. dol.)
3

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars1
(Ratio)

L, Lg, Lg

78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Bil. dol.)

Revised

21.56
27.04
52.58

12.14
17.75
27.74

28.7
-2.4
19.4

-0.23
1.22
-0.45

657.84
657.64
659.26

639.74
641.72
646.48

105.75
105.43
105.21

1.56
1.56
1.58

229.97
231.18
230.73

23.77
-36.77
10.01

34.10
23.83
6.10

9.0
-27.1
5.3

-0.96
-1.95
-1.33

660.01
657.76
658.20

649.07
647.07
648.17

105.17
104.87
103.80

1.55
rl.57
rl.57

229.77
227.82
226.49

•;°

21.52
-23.74
-28.55

-1.37
0.42
-3.83

29.9
-4.5
-17.4

-0.90
-1.09
1.42

660.68
660.31
658.87

650.88
649.15
646.21

104.05
103.60
102.74

rl.56
rl.55
1.50

225.59
224.50
225.92

-1(L5

9.94
-17.10
-2.36

-12.19
-13.01
-7.54

29.4
-5.9
-44.4

-0.97
0.12
1.57

661.32
660.82
657.12

647.49
646.69
644.74

102.96
103.96
103.23

1.53
1.53
1.49

224.94
225.07
226.64

29^8

1986

3

44.80
5.30
52.18

2.64
12.18
25.00

82.8
19.9
35.7

-0.73
-0.51
2.46

664.02
665.68
668.65

649.35
649.72
651.98

104.42
104.08
104.38

1.56
1.50
1.51

225.90
225.39
227.85

19.74
52.96
38.41

29.92
33.68
39.33

27.2
r76.7
r42.8

3.11
rO.42
r2.45

670.92
r677.31
680.88

652.61
656.22
657.99

104.03
104.28
103.48

1.52
1.53
1.53

230.96
r231.37
r233.82

Revised

January
February
March

3

45^7

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Revised

Revised

C»)

1987

January
February
March

s

April
May
June

"I

July
August
September

ii!o

31.21
-10.21
40.68

38.95
30.33
20.18

39.3
12.0
52.4

r3.01
1.36
1.99

684.15
685.15
689.51

659.44
658.09
660.52

104.58
105.37
104.77

1.52
rl.51
1.50

236.84
238.19
240.18

October
November
December

»;:

71.14
41.99
59.40

27.22
42.57
54.39

E>97.6
69.3
77.1

1.89
1.11
3.50

697.65
703.42
709.85

666.42
669.88
674.91

105.91
106.80
107.57

rl.52
rl.54
rl.54

242.07
243.17
246.67

6e!6

51.97
43.34
18.56

54.32
51.34
44.76

62.1
34.3
26.6

H)4.08
0.53
1.09

715.03
717.88
720.10

679.70
682.89
684.40

108.70
109.27
109.15

rl.55
rl.54
rl.53

250.76
251.29
252.38

p45.0

10.51
p!5.00
(NA)

31.05
p!9.41
(NA)

r46.5
p53.0
(NA)

r3.33
pi. 83
(NA)

r723.97
E>p728.39
(NA)

685.28
K>p686.11
(NA)

r!09.12
E>pl09.35
(NA)

rl.54
pi. 54
(NA)

r255.71
E>p257.54
(NA)

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
lr
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 30 (83.4) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (89.60) in February
1984, series 36 smoothed (78.81) in May 1984, and series 77 (1.59) in January 1985. 2This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with
3
weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Se^ "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
|

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

L, L, L

98. Change in
producer prices
for sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1
(Percent)

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials2©

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

L, L, L

U, L, L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed 3

Actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks (u)

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins

16. Current
dollars x

18. Constant
(1982) dollars1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
5

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised

L,C, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVAandCCAdj 4

Corporate profits after tax

Revised

1986

L, C, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

5

80. Constant
(1982) dollars

79. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised

5

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)

5

Revised 5

[H>196!o

4!i

Revised

0.37
-0.92
0.93

236.9
233.3
223.1

0.29
-0.68
-0.99

-0.05
-0.05
-0.28

208.19
219.37
232.33

123.2

113!?

1.29
0.82
0.45

219.9
221.3
225.0

0.00
0.50
0.69

-0.51
-0.36
0.12

237.98
238.46
245.30

125!i

ns'.o

192.2

181.9

4.8

July
August
September

0.99
-2.14
1.18

227.6
212.0
221.2

0.69
-2.83
1.71

0.51
0.07
-0.31

240.18
245.00
238.27

132.6

120.7

193!3

18CL7

4'.9

October
November
December

1.17
1.16
-0.18

235.5
243.7
247.5

2.27
1.35
0.38

0.12
1.08
1.56

237.36
245.09
248.61

137!9

124!9

179.6

166.1

5.1

0.35
0.26
0.88

252.8
247.2
246.3

0.76
-0.57
0.19

1.08
0.51
0.16

264.51
280.93
292.47

135!5

12l'.5

172.0

157!6

4.8

-0.26
2.52
1.78

253.8
272.6
276.4

0.85
E>3.00
1.00

0.14
0.75
1.48

289.32
289.12
301.38

141.1

125.7

172.6

157.0

5.0

July
August
September

1.92
1.55
3.38

284.2
288.3
292.4

1.53
0.98
1.58

EJ>1.73
1.51
1.27

310.09
[H>329.36
318.66

149.5

133!2

iszii

165!8

5!2

October
November
December

2.57
1.44
0.07

294.6
292.0
293.1

1.13
0.26
0.17

1.30
1.11
0.76

280.16
245.01
240.96

145*.7

128!2

179^9

162^4

4^7

January
February
March

0.67
rO.52
rC.67

292.5
288.9
292.3

0.17
r-0.17
rO.60

0.36
rO.13
rO.13

250.48
258.13
265.74

149.4

13K2

179*.3

leiis

5!3

April
May
June

-0.59
-0.07
0.37

297.3
301.6
S)309.5

0.25
0.42
0.84

0.21
rO.32
0.46

262.61
256.12
270.68

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June

B>204!6

1987

January
February
March
April
May
June

1988

6

July
August
September

308.9

7

268.46

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983; and series 16 (152.5), series 18 (149.4), and
series 22 (6.9) in 1st quarter 1984. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3See footnote 2 on page 68. ''See footnote 1 on page 70. 5See "New Features and Changes for This
Issue," page iii. 6Average for July 1 through 26. 7Average for July 6, 13, 20, and 27.

ito

JULY 1988




69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q | PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
|

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

1986

IU.L

L, L, L

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income1 2

15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins— Continued

(Cents)

L, L, L

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector
(1977-100)

L, L, L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

L, L, L

Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

35. Constant
(1982) dollars

Revised 3

Revised 3

Lg, Lg, Lg

(1977 = 100)

(Dollars)

64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income

62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data

(1977=100)

Revised 3

Revised 3

Lg, Lg, Lg

Revised 3

Actual data
as a percent
of trend
(Percent)
Revised

(Percent)
3

Revised 3

January
February
March

s!i

3J

99.5

3,73.7

375!i

165.0

0.710

136.7
137.2
0)140.2

100.0
0)102.2

April
May
June

8.1

i!i

99!3

373!l

374.3

166.2

0.717

137.5
138.1
138.3

100.2
100.7
100.8

72.6

July
August
September

l'.9

r3!s

99.4

379.6

380.5

167!s

0.722

137.5
138.1
138.2

100.2
100.7
100.7

73!6

October
November
December

7.2

rs!5

9s!i

386! 2

385.7

169.6

0.725

139.2
138.0
136.9

101.5
100.6

99.6
72.8

0)73.4

99.8

1987

January
February
March

6.5

i!e

99!l

385! 9

386! 4

169.4

0.730

138.1
137.6
137.9

100.7
100.3
100.5

73.0

April
May
June

6.5

i!9

99!i

393!9

393.8

170.2

0.730

136.9
136.6
136.2

99.8
99.6
99.3

73'.6

July
August
September

e!/

5.5

0)100.2

404.2

404! 3

169'.8

0.729

135.2
135.8
137.4

98.5
99.0

100.1

October
November
December

6.2

i!i

o\6

0)p&!3

99!5

402! 4

402.6

171.8

0)0.738

136.4
136.5
135.6

99.4
99.5
98.8

0)407!3

0)405.0

0>17l!9

0.736

135.9
136.4
137.9

99.1
99.4

72!9

72.9

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

(NA)

99^6

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

136.9
136.6
p!37.2

99.8
99.6

plOO.O

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
Series 81 reached its high value (8.6) in 3d quarter 1985.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

X

70



73*.l

100.5

JULY 1988

(NA)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q MONEY AND CREDIT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Velocity of Money

Money
L, L, L

85. Change
in money
supply Ml

L, C,U

102. Change
in money
supply M21

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, L, L

104. Change
in total liquid
assetsl

(Percent)

L,L, L

105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

C,C,C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1

(Ratio)
Revised 2

1986

Credit Flows

C, Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M21

(Ratio)

L, U

L, L, L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

112. Net change
in business loans

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

January
February
March

0.26
0 56
l.*41

0.35

0.44
0.79

0.69
0.62
0,63

546.8
551.3
562.1

2,261.7
2,277.7
2,307.9

6.667

1.337
1.340
1.338

-23.17
57.40
43.56

62.84
-32.09
-14.94

April
May
June

1.14
1.64
1.47

0.93
0.95
0.94

0.68
0.70
0.63

569.4
577.7
583.2

2,333.5
2,351.4
2,361.0

6.459

1.338
1.325
1.315

52.58
30.83

-56.35
20.84
-7.87

July
August
September

1.44
1.45
1.01

0.95
0.84
0.66

0.78
0.66
0.70

591.5
599.0
603.5

2,383.5
2,399.3
2,408.8

6.281

1.307
1.301
1.298

-7.43
40.57
-15.14

October
November
December

1.09
1.65
0)2.69

0.82
0.60
0.90

0.48
0.52
0.71

609.0
618.0
633.0

2,424.3
2,434.6
2,450.1

6.072

1.294
1.292
1.291

24.23
20 02
93! 40

January
February
March

0.83
-0.01
0.40

0.71
0.05
0.18

0.70
0.30
-0.03

633.8
631.0
630.8

2,450.4
2,441.2
2,435.0

5.997

1.288
1.302
1.307

0)126.83
-19.49
-33.82

April
May
June

1.43
0.24
-0.59

0.46
0.06
0.09

0.37
0.67
0.35

0)637.0
636.4
631.0

2,435.8
2,428.9
2,424.9

6.024

1.308
1.311
1.314

-5.56
-7.10

July
August
September

0.20
0.39
0.13

0.23
0.40
0.40

0.07
0.54
0.60

630.7
630.5
629.2

2,424.3
2,423.6
2,425.0

6.124

1.322
1.326
1.326

-51.73
-34.25
22.25

October
November
December

1.16
-0.46
-0.25

0.48
0.07
0.16

rO.67
rO.25
rO.02

634.4
629.9
627.2

2,428.4
2,423.9
2,423.6

1.346
1.341
1.358

38.02

6.191

61.02

January
February
March

rl.07
0.09
rO.45

0.82
0.72
0.73

rO.85
rO.72
rO.61

r631.8
r631.3
r631.0

2,435.5
2,448.9
2,454.5

6.2i3

1.341
1.340
1.343

54.84
65.56
10.27

April
May
June

0.93
rO.OO
pO.81

0.82
rO.38
pO.45

rO.95
pO.63
(NA)

r633.7
631.7
p634.7

r2,462.3
r2,463.6
0)p2,466.6

p6.226

1.336
1.337
pi. 340

rl!7.80
r!2.12
p6.43

July
August
September

30.84

(NA)

1987

3.54

5.00

1988

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 102 (2.66) in January 1983, series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series
107 (7.035) in 4th quarter 1984, series 108 (1.373) in March 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984. 2See "New Features and
Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3Average for weeks ended July 4, 11, and 18.

JULY 1988




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^H MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Credit Flows— Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L,L,L

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L.L.L

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties

L, L,L

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets1

L, L, L

L, L, L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over 1

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©

L, U, U

L, Lg, U

93. Free
reserves1©

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©

119. Federal
funds rate1©

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

mil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

C, Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills1©

(Percent)

(2)

( )

1986

75.25
78.84
35.45

12.4

April
May
June

60.43
59.93

575,340

51.44

2.2
7.7
3.6

July
August
September

62.69
54.25
73.09

6.4
6.9
3.7

October
November
December

75.35

8.6
4.7

770
884
761

8.14
7.86
7.48

7.04
7.03
6.59

893
876
803

6.99
6.85
6.92

6.06
6.12
6.21

741
872
1,008

6.56
6.17
5.89

5.84
5.57
5.19

r225
542

841
752
827

5.85
6.04
6.91

5.18
5.35
5.49

2.43
2.40
2.28

488
r656
r388

580
556
527

6.43
6.10
6.13

5.45
5.59
5.56

3,201.2
p2,872.4
p2,742.3

2.36
2.43
2.35

-166
44
414

993
1,035
776

6.37
6.85
6.73

5.76
5.75
5.69

p2,142.7

January
February
March

21.72
0.50

L, Lg, Lg

(Ann. rate,
2

2.34
2.37

89
385

672
647

- 1 47/
1H

o/i n
y^U

5.78
6.00

2 . or
JD

6.58
6.73
7 22

943
625
777

7.29
6.69
6.77

6.40
5.81
5.80

5.90
5.69
5.69

341

3,238.9
3,252.2
3,278.8

2.27
2.29
2.41

1,766.8
3,572.8
3,467.6

2.44
2.52
2.53

r!27

738,552

7,464.6
2,748.4
5,126.7

2.22
2.33
2.24

-132
-282

777,632

2,870.8
2,170.2
4,326.8

2.25
2.34
2.26

r-96

7.0
1.9
2.1

334,456

3,351.9
3,636.6
3,357.6

6.7
4.6
7.9

591,436

1.6
4.1
8 .n
y

559,868

5.6
4.7

Interest Rates

411,284

13.3

r214

135
-92
-38
169

1987

January
February
March

-10.39

31.74
22.08

April
May
June

55.44

13.93
79,74

July
August
September

67.61
56.14

October
November
December

47.39
21.59
51.54

r 7 ft c

D/ . H-D

9

p '

r\9&

9

•

c oo
D . Oil

642,964

pS.151.6
pi, 610. 6
p5,512.2

2.66
2.54
2.47

186
298
252

p4,101.8
p4,093.3
p3,370.9

2.44
2.32
2.19

213
737

1,082

p466,356

-823

1,752

6.83
6.58
6.58

p2,892.8
(NA)

(NA)

2,993
2,578
p3,083

6.87
7.09
7.51

5.92
6.27
6.50

7.76

"6.73

r9.1
5.8
rll.4

pi, 907. 4

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

74.83
60.42
62.29
r46.21
p29.05
(NA)

13.2

rlO.l
r6.4

r!2.4
p5.5
(NA)

(NA)

-2,134
r-1,538
p-2,195

396

3

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
lr
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (22.6) in June 1984; series 110 (948,376) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series
94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2See ,,New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3Average
for weeks ended July 6, 13, 20, and 27. ^Average for weeks ended July 7, 14, 21, and 28.

72




JULY

1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^J MONEY AND CREDIT— Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Outstanding Debt

Interest Rates— Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds1©

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1®

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average1©

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages1©

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks1©

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)
Revised 2

1986

10.33

9.29

9.50
9.50
9.10

524,025
530,595
533,549

353,832
351,158
349,913

342,860
345,288
348,866

15.24
15.34
15.32

8.13

8.83
8.50
8.50

538,585
543,579
547,866

345,217
346,954
346,298

346,603
346,954
346,645

15.32
15.47
15.56

7!73

8.16
7.90
7.50

553,090
557,611
563,702

345,679
349,060
347,798

347,766
351,521
349,897

15.66
15.73
15.83

9.80
9.26
9.21

7^28

7.50
7.50
7.50

569,981
571,791
571,833

349,817
351,485
359,268

350,870
352,189
360,349

6.61
6.61
6.66

8.79
8.81
8.94

7^46

7.50
7.50
7.50

570,967
573,612
575,452

369,837
368,213
365,395

E)367,997
364,567
361,062

15.68
15.57
15.54

8.31
8.79
8.63

7.55
8.00
7.79

10.02
10.61
10.33

8.24

7.75
8.14
8.25

580,072
581,233
587,878

365,690
365,227
364,635

358,871
355,972
354,015

15.57
15.56
15.69

9.76
8.95

9.51
9.07
8.13

8.08
7.44
7.08

10.78
10.59

April
May
June

8.71
9.09
9.39

7.59
8.02
8.23

7.20
7.54
7.87

9.80

July
August
September

9.11
9.03
9.28

7.86
7.72
8.08

7.51
7.21
7.11

10.01

October
November
December

9.29
8.99
8.87

8.04
7.81
7.67

7.08
6.85
6.86

January
February
March

8.59
8.58
8.68

7.60
7.69
7.62

April
May
June

9.36
9.95
9.64
9.70

January
February
March

Lg, Lg, Lg

9.77

10.07
9.98

9.80
9.90

D15. 92

15.90
15.78

1987

July
August
September

10.09
10.63

8.70
8.97
9.58

7.72
7.82
8.26

10.38
10.55
11.22

8!20

8.25
8.25
8.70

593,512
598,190
602,978

360,324
357,470
359,324

348,139
344,383
346,503

15.71
15.73
15.78

October
November
December

10.80
10.09
10.22

9.61
8.99
9.12

8.70
7.95
7.96

10.90
10.76
10.63

8^47

9.07
8.78
8.75

606,927
608,726
613,021

362,492
362,909
367,994

348,215
348,281
353,161

15.57
15.67
15.56

9.81
9.43
9.68

8.82
8.41
8.61

7.69
7.49
7.74

10.17
8.37

10.28

8.75
8.51
8.50

619,258
624,294
629,485

372,564
378,027
378,883

356,180
r360,713
361,185

15.79
15.82
15.79

9.92

8.91
9.24
9.04

7.81
7.91
7.78

10.46
10.84
10.65

8.49

8.50
8.84
9.00

r633,336
H)p635,757

r388,700
r389,710
E)P390,246

r367,391
r365,925
p363,358

15.85
p!5.84

9.16

"7.76

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

10.25
10.08

no. 12

3

9.86

5

(NA)

(NA)

9.27

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984;
series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2See "New Features and Changes
for This Issue," page iii . 3Average for weeks ended July 1, 8, 15, 22, and 29. ^Average for weeks ended July 7, 14, 21, and 28. 5Average
for July 1 through 28.

JULY 1988



73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES
|

Year
and
month

950. Eleven leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29,32,36,99, 106, 111)1

1-month
span

6-month
span

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41,47,51,57)

1-month
span

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

6-month
span

6-month
span

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

1986

1-month
span

9-month
span

Revised 3

1-month
span

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas 2

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries

Revised 3

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

January
February
March

59.1
45.5
59.1

59.1
50.0
54.5

75.0
75.0
50.0

100.0
75.0
75.0

58.3
75.0
66.7

50.0
66.7
50.0

32.5
17.5
80.0

80.0
50.0
37.5

58.8
52.9
64.7

49.0
39.2
51.0

57.0
47.3
49.5

48.1
47.3
43.8

April
May
June

63.6
50.0
59.1

54.5
63.6
63.6

100.0
25.0
37.5

75.0
75.0
100.0

0.0
66.7
33.3

41.7
50.0
33.3

45.0
42.5
45.0

65.0
50.0
40.0

25.5
74.5
56.9

56.9
56.9
67.6

50.8
51.9
46.8

42.7
43.2
47.0

July
August
September

59.1
50.0
50.0

68.2
72.7
90.9

87.5
100.0
75.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

50.0
50.0
41.7

50.0
41.7
50.0

40.0
80.0
65.0

75.0
55.0
67.5

34.3
78.4
17.6

92.2
45.1
90.2

51.9
54.1
51.4

46.5
50.0
55.9

October
November
December

54.5
81.8
81.8

72.7
81.8
90.9

75.0
87.5
100.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

91.7
41.7
25.0

75.0
33.3
58.3

47.5
77.5
45.0

90.0
77.5
55.0

71.6
80.4
7.8

70.6
70.6
94.1

53.0
58.9
58.9

53.2
55.9
58.4

January
February
March

36.4
45.5
63.6

72.7
72.7
63.6

25.0
100.0
50.0

100.0
100.0
50.0

66.7
25.0
25.0

50.0
58.3
50.0

72.5
72.5
22.5

70.0
75.0
85.0

88.2
35.3
52.0

69.6
82.4
78.4

50.8
59.2
61.1

64.6
64.3
63.0

April
May
June

40.9
45.5
59.1

72.7
63.6
63.6

62.5
50.0
87.5

100.0
100.0
100.0

75.0
50.0
58.3

50.0
r66.7
50.0

7.5
95.0
50.0

77.5
42.5
77.5

73.5
78.4
15.7

80.4
94.1
90.2

62.4
62.4
61.6

70.3
72.4
77.3

July
August
September

50.0
45.5
54.5

63.6
r63.6
59.1

100.0
100.0
r50.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
41.7
r83.3

50.0
r66.7
r50.0

62.5
52.5
25.0

55.0
62.5
87.5

64.7
84.3
37.3

92.2
59.8
62.7

70.8
62.2
68.1

78.4
79.7
82.7

October
November
December

81.8
22.7
50.0

63.6
59.1
50.0

75.0
50.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

66.7
75.0
25.0

83.3
83.3
83.3

87.5
35.0
25.0

35.0
50.0
60.0

86.3
23.5
5.9

27.5
62.7
80.4

67.3
67.8
68.4

77.8
77.0
76.5

45.5
45.5
59.1

50.0
40.9
"72.2

75.0
87.5
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

r75.0
58.3
r50.0

r83.3
91.7
100.0

55.0
30.0
52.5

47.5
p67.5

80.4
29.4
60.8

49.0
p43.1

61.6
61.6
62.2

r73.5
r70.0
p68.4

1987

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

63.6
36.4
"83.3

50.0
100.0
5
100.0

5

75.0
25.0
6
75.0

6

82.5
27.5
p47.5

92.2
r35.3
p31.4

r63.8
r57.6
p65.4

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
l
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
2
Figures are the percent of components declining.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
"Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
5
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
6
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74



JULY 1988 IMJ)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

1-quarter
span

966. Industrial production, 24 industries

4-Q moving
average

1-month
span

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ©

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks 1 ©

1-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies 2 ©

9-month
span

(4-quarter span)

1986

January
February
March

55.9
47.1
44.1

38.2
44.1
44.1

36

April
May
June

58.8
26.5
55.9

47.1
51.5
50.0

24

July
August
September

44.1
39.7
64.7

32.4
67.6
52.9

59

October
November
December

50.0
44.1
63.2

67.6
79.4
73.5

65

January
February
March

50.0
67.6
52.9

88.2

42

r76.5

April
May
June

44.1

75.0
41.7
58.3

61.5
38.5
34.6

46.2
50.0
57.7

60.5
81.0
94.0

90.5
90.5
88.1

70

43

85.4
37.5
16.7
75.0
35.4
52.1

47.9
50.0
58.3

53.8
61.5
65.4

42.3
50.0
50.0

61.9
50.0
77.4

88.1
90.5
81.0

*70

46

47.9
75.0
79.2

50.0
50.0
65.4

50.0
65.4
73.1

35.7
67.9
42.9

81.0
71.4
78.6

74

'48

58.3
47.9
31.2

72.9
87.5
87.5

73.1
61.5
65.4

65.4
80.8
76.9

34.5
76.2
50.0

100.0

*62

70.8
70.8
75.0

'(52

31.2
64.6
60.4

91.7
89.6
75.0

84.6
42.3
30.8

88.5
96.2
80.8

98.8
95.2
83.3

87.8
92.7
92.5

75.0
87.5
83.3

61.5
88.5
57.7

73.1
96.2
80.8

39.3
46.3
93.9

97.5
97.5
62.5

76

62

50.0
70.8
70.8

91.7
91.7
95.8

73.1
76.9
61.5

88.5
88.5
76.9

81.3
95.0

10.0
12.5
10.0

*78

p64

70.8
62.5
50.0

(NA)

75.0
79.2
66.7

83.3
79.2
83.3

53.8
46.2
50.0

53.8
69.2
69.2

52.1
54.2

r79.2
r75.0
p66.7

42.3
34.6
65.4

95.2
92.9

1987

r45.6
r64.7

79.4
82.4
79.4
79.4

83

59

July
August
September

r58.8
r38.2
58.8

70.6
70.6
70.6

October
November
December

52.9
47.1
55.9

76.5
75.0
76.5

65

January
February
March

44.1
52.9
57.4

r76.5
p82.4

p48

April
May
June

67.6

8.8
0.0
0.0
53.8

:."
:i!

17.5

8.0
12.8

(NA)

1988

r41.2
p55.9

July
August
September

r70.8
(NA)

r83.3
r50.0
p64.6

57.7
65.4
65.4
3

69.2
61.5
3

61.5

75.0
88.8
37.0

5.1
7.7

37.2

3.8
97.4

42.3

October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 43 industries through January 1986, on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries
through March 1988, and on 39 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for July 5, 12, 19, and 26.

JULY 1988



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
|

Year
and
quarter

971. New orders, manufacturing1©

a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)

b. Later
projections

c. Early
projections
(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade ' ©

Actual

970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade ' 0

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

on
oO
81
81

7n
/u
69
70
70

66.7
73.8
61.9
52.4

61.9
76.'2
66.7
42.9

66. 7
71.*4
76.2
38.1

74
74
76
75

19.0
52.4
42.9
81.0

47.6
66.*7
42.9
85.7

64. 3
66.7
38.1
52.4

7C

/D

oc

76
74
75

83
84
78

7n
/u
71
70
70

40.5
61.9
85.7
64.3

42.9
78.6
85.7
85 '.7

50.0
71.4
66. 7
6l!9

78
83

80
83

74
74

or
OD

7C

82

86

76

73.8
(NA)

85.7
76.2

61.9
57.1
64.3

82
(NA)

84
84
86

76
(NA)

00
oc
84
82
80

76
74
75
74

79
12.
73
74
74

81
84
83
80

78
80

78

84
84
84
81

82
83
ob
86

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

oo

70
/o
81
81
78

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

po
Oc.

78
81
po
oo
82

/D

P9

QC

oc

83

1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

80
(NA)

82
82
82

85
84
86

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Year
and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 1 @

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade '©

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

978. Selling prices, retail
trade '(u)

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade 1 ©

976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 ©

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

60
58
58
59

60
62
59
58

66
63
60
61

64
66
62
58

65
62
61
61

70
70
64
62

64
60
59
60

68
66
66
60

66
63
66
62

65
70
67
62

58
59
60
58

59
60
59
58

62
61
62
60

58
58
60
57

59
60
58
63

62
65
62
59

59
59
58
62

64
64
62
62

60
62
66
62

62
62
64
64

60
61
64
64

60
59
62
62

64
65
66
68

60
60
61
62

64
64
68
70

60
66
67
66

63
70
72
70

63
68
66
69

67
67
72
72

64
64
68
70

63
(NA)

63
62
62

67
(NA)

62
64
62

74
(NA)

70
69
74

74
(NA)

72
72
71

70
(NA)

68
71
70

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by(u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun £
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76




JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

JQ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components

1987

1988

November

December

February

January

Aprilr

March

Mayr

Junep

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING *
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries

o

41.0

(35)

Percent rising of 20 components

41.2

40.7
40.2

+

41.1

41.0

40.9

(25)

(55)

(30)

(52)

40.4
39.8

40.2
39.6

+

40.3
39.5

40.1
39.3

+

42.3
43.1

o
+

41.6
42.6

o
+

r39.3

+

o

41.2

41.0

(82)

(28)

+
+

40.6
39.5

40.0
39.4

o

40.0
39.2

42.3
43.3

+
+

42.5
43.5

42.3
43.7

o
+

42.3
43.8

o

41.6
42.5

+
+

42.0
42.8

41.9
42.6

o

41.9
42.4

40.9
42.0

o
+

40.9
42.1

+
+

41.2
43.0

41.0
43.1

o

41.0
42.8

41.3

+

41.4
39.2

+
+

41.8
39.4

41.0
(48)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

42.4
43.5

+

42.5
43.4

o

42.0
43.4

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

+
+

42.1
42.7

41.7
42.6

+
+

41.8
42.7

Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

o

41.0
42.3

40.9
41.5

+
+

41.1
42.0

41.2

+

41.4

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

41.8

r39.1

r39.2

o

r39.2

40.4
40.9

+

40.5
40.5

+

+

+

41.4
39.2

o

41.3
39.2

40.2
39.4

+
+

40.4
39.6

40.7
36.8

+

40.6
36.9

43.3
37.7

+

43.1
38.1

41.9
43.8

+
+

42.4
44.3

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers 2

o

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

41.6
37.1

41.5
37.1

o

o

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

43.5
38.0

o

43.3
38.0

o
+

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products 2

o
+

42.5
44.1

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

o

40.3
38.6

40.6
39.2

40.1
39.3

o

+

40.1
38.5

+
+

41.6
37.0

o

41.2
37.0

+
+

41.6
37.4

+
+

43.4
38.1

o

43.3
38.1

o

43.2
38.1

+
+

43.3
38.2

42.5
44.5

o

42.5
44.2

42.4
43.3

+
+

42.5
43.7

+

42.1
44.4

r41.6
r38.0

r41.8
r38.3

41.5
36.8

+
o

r41.7
r38.0

r41.6
r37.8

+
+

41.7

+

r37.9

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES *
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

- 110,949

Percent rising of 34 components

+

(47)

115,620

-

114,196

+

114,319

+

(44)

10,254
11,142

+
+

10,377
11,758

+

(53)

+
+

10,903
11,290

+
+

11,997
11,472

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

+

18,024
20,288

+
-

19,195
19,762

+
+

20,552
20,716

-

19,720
19,452

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+
-

28,603
21,841

+
+

31,155
22,039

+

28,946
22,586

+
-

30,525
22,487

o

42.0
37.3

+

41.7
37.4

117,266

-

115,096

41.6
36.9

3

(56)

Fabricated metal products

Primary metals

+
+

115,252

+

(57)

(68)

+

125,234
(56)

(41)

10,936
11,744

+
+

11,098
11,989

+
+

11,885
12,065

+

11,470
12,190

+

20,216
18,707

+
+

20,418
19,628

+
+

20,502
20,203

+
+

20,772
20,318

+
-

31,376
22,273

+
+

31,402
22,731

-

28,208
22,233

+
+

38,235
22,249

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and («-) = falling.
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

JULY 1988



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q[ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

1987

Diffusion index components

November

1988

January

December

Mayr

Aprilr

March r

February

JuneP

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1977-100)

+

All industrial production

Percent rising of 24 components

2

133.2

+

133.9

+

o

134.4

+

(54)

(52)

(67)

(79)

134.4

134.7

+

135.4

+

136.6

(50)

(83)

(71)

136.1 +

(65)

137.7
160.2

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
89.0

Durable manufactures:
137.8
159.4

o
+

122.5
85.1

85.3

+
+

121.7

+

+
+

118.8
164.6

+
+

118.9
166.3

+
+

119.7
168.7

+
+

120.4
169.5

177.8
128.4

+

176.6
130.0

+
+

178.9
130.4

+
+

179.2
133.2

+
o

180.4
133.2

149.2
104.4

+
+

149.7
105.1

+
+

151.6
105.8

151.0
106.1

+

151.5

+

141.9
107.0

141.1
107.2

140.4

+

139.6
107.6

+

+

115.3
108.5

+
+

117.0
108.7

+
+

117.9
109.2

148.0
178.7

+
+

149.1
180.4

+
+

149.2
181.5

+

145.4
95.9

+
+

146.4
98.4

+
o

148.6

+

98.4

95.2

172.2
59.5

+

172.6

171.8

58.0

57.0

84.9
129.1

+
+

85.1

(NA)

136.0

130.2

+

132.0

94.8
136.9

+
+

95.8

95.1

+

141.0

140.9

95.4
(NA)

136.3
158.0

+
+

139.0
158.3

120.4
86.5

+

121.6
86.4

+

+
+

117.1
162.9

+
+

117.6
163.6

175.9
128.1

+
+

177.4
128.6

+

148.2
105.0

+

141.2
105.8

+
+

Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

134.0
158.5

133.6
159.4

+

+

Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals

+

120.5
90.2

120.1
90.6

+

+

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery

+

113.6
157.2

+
+

115.8
161.0

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

+

175.6
130.4

+

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

+

147.8
104.5

145.5
105.6

+

+

+

+

137.8
159.7
121.4

+

89.1

(NA)

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products

+
+

138.9
106.5

+
+

140.1
110.5

Textile mill products
Apparel products

+
+

117.3
109.4

+

118.2
107.8

+

116.2
108.7

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

+
+

148.3
175.7

+
+

150.6
176.9

+

149.9
177.5

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

+

144.4
93.3

+
+

147.9
96.1

o
+

147.9
96.3

Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

+
+

169.9
60.7

+

170.6
57.5

+

170.5
58.3

Metal mining
Coal

+
+

90.4
142.9

+

Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

+
+

94.2
134.1

+

+
+

172.3
59.7

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

117.0

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

149.8
180.9

(NA)

+

149.3

181.5
(NA)
94.2
(NA)
(NA)

Mining:

+

96.5
140.6
94.1
135.6

93.1
132.1

83.9
133.7

91.5
140.2

+

+

92.4
134.3

+
+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78




(NA)

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

JULY 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
1988

1987

Diffusion index components

967.

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100)

-

Percent rising of 13 components

292.0

January

December

November

INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS

+

(46)

293.1

-

292.5

-

(42)

(50)

288.9

April

March

February

+

2

292.3

+

(65)

(35)

July 1

June

May

297.3

+

301.6

+

-

308.9
(42)

(65)

(65)

(58)

309.5

Dollars

Copper scrap

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

0.825
1.819

+

0.934
2.059

+

0.938
2.068

-

0.785
1.731

-

0.770
1.698

-

0.748
1.649

+

0.768
1.693

+

0.820
1.808

-

0.776
1.711

Lead scrap

(pound)
(kilogram) . .

-

0.276
0.608

-

0.272
0.600

-

0.252
0.556

-

0.230
0.507

-

0.214
0.472

-

0.210
0.463

+

0.215
0.474

+

0.230
0.507

+

0.232
0.511

Steel scrap

(U.S. ton). .
(metric ton) . .

- 115.750
127.591

- 104.000
114.639

- 100.000
110.230

+ 115.000
126.765

- 109.000
120.151

- 103.000
113.537

+ 106.500
117.395

+ 120.000
132.276

3.828
8.439

+

3.852
8.492

+

+

4.058
8.946

0.542
1.195

+

0.579
1.276

+

0.651 +
1.435

0,684
1.508

0.281 +
0.307

0.282
0.308

-

0.281
0.307

-

0.277
0.303

- 108.750
119.875

Tin

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

3.928
8.660

-

3.878
8.549

-

3.860
8.510

-

3.792
8.360

+

3.836
8.457

Zinc

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

0.451
0.994

+

0.454
1.001

+

0.458
1.010

+

0.469
1.034

+

0.492
1.085

+

Burlap

(yard) . .
(meter) . .

+

0.270
0.295

+

0.275
0.301

o

0.275
0.301

+

0.276
0.302

+

0.277
0.303

+

Cotton

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

0.645
1.422

-

0.622
1.371

-

0.595
1.312

-

0.574
1.265

+

0.594
1.310

+

0.597
1.316

+

0.619
1.365

+

0.633
1.396

-

0.574
1.265

Print cloth

(yard)
(meter). .

-

0.655
0.716

-

0.630
0.689

-

0.620
0.678

-

0.590
0.645

-

0.536
0.586

+

0.550
0.601

-

0.530
0.580

-

0.500
0.547

-

0.498
0.545

Wool tops

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

o

4.100
9.039

+

4.380
9.656

+

4.750
10.472

+

5.000
11.023

+

5.420
11.949

+

6.208
13.686

+

7.100
15.653

-

6.575
14.495

-

6.500
14.330

Hides

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

0.952
2.099

-

0.942
2.077

-

0.928
2.046

o

0.928
2.046

+

1.065
2.348

+

1.100
2.425

-

1.089
2.401

-

0.969
2.136

-

0.941
2.075

o

50.000
110.230

o

50.000
110.230

-

48.125
106.096

-

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms). .

4.008
8.836

Rubber

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

0.532
1.173

+

0.540
1.190

+

0.547
1.206

-

0.536
1.182

+

0.549
1.210

+

0.555
1.224

+

0.593
1.307

+

0.710
1.565

-

0.662
1.459

Tallow

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

0.146
0.322

+

0.148
0.326

+

0.173
0.381

-

0.168
0.370

+

0.170
0.375

-

0.165
0.364

-

0.158
0.348

+

0.172
0.379

+

0.179
0.395

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised: "p",
preliminary: and "NA", not available.
1
The index is the average for July 1 through 26; component prices are averages for July 5, 12, 19, and 26.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

JULY 1988



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Q GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
|
Year
and
quarter

b. Difference

a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

Revised 1

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

Revised 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

3,925.6
3,979.0
4,047.0
4,107.9

73.8
53.4
68.0
60.9

7.9
5.6
7.0
6.2

3,577.5
3,599.2
3,635.8
3,662.4

72.5
27.2
60.8
36.2

7.2
2.6
5.9
3.4

3,719.3
3,711.6
3,721.3
3,734.7

13.4

87.2
92.4
83.8
94.8

8.4
8.7
7.7
8.6

3,776.7
3,823.0
3,865.3
3,923.0

42.0
46.3
42.3
57.7

4,724.5
p4,806.9

5.4

p82.4

3,956.1
p3,986.3

p30.2

213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revised 1

56.9
-7.7

4,391.8
4,484.2
4,568.0
4,662.8

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

42.3
21.7
36.6
26.6

4,180.4
4,207.6
4,268.4
4,304.6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars

Revised 1

4.9
2.4
4.1
3.0

15,004
15,061
15,173
15,244

3,561.7
3,582.3
3,639.8
3,654.7

6.4
1.0
1.4

15,447
15,380
15,381
15,397

3,673.6
3,688.0
3,718.3
3,745.2

4.6
5.0
4.5
6.1

15,537
15,693
15,826
16,022

3,746.9
3,795.2
3,852.2
3,855.9

3.4

16,126
p!6,219

3,890.1
p3,941.3

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-0.8

9.7

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

61.7

P7.2

33.1

^Q PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

^H GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter

230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars

225. Constant
(1982) dollars

p3.1

231. Total in 1982
dollars

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

2,764.6
2,850.7
2,840.0
2,899.5

2,509.4
2,563.5
2,535.4
2,562.8

10,524
10,727
10,581
10,667

2,554.9
2,599.3
2,661.4
2,700.4

2,319.1
2,337.4
2,375.9
2,386.9

361.4
367.1
387.2
373.2

344.8
350.3
369.1
356.4

2,965.1
3,016.3
3,032.4
3,064.7

2,614.5
2,655.9
2,643.9
2,649.4

10,858
11,006
10,928
10,923

2,739.0
2,772.1
2,842.8
2,876.0

2,415.1
2,440.9
2,478.6
2,486.2

381.4
393.0
429.9
421.8

363.3
374.2
405.1
397.3

3,143.9
3,154.1
3,224.9
3,315.8

2,679.6
2,652.8
2,683.9
2,728.9

11,024
10,889
10,989
11,145

2,921.7
2,992.2
3,058.2
3,076.3

2,490.2
2,516.6
2,545.2
2,531.7

403.5
420.5
441.4
422.0

378.3
391.3
406.5
387.6

3,375.6
p3,416.5

2,762.3
p2,759.8

11,260
pll,228

3,128.1
p3,186.8

2,559.8
p2,574.2

437.8
p446.9

401.1
p408.1

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
iii.




JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

HHj PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued

Year
and
quarter

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

Q GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised

1

241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revised 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

890.9
905.6
915.7
932.7

838.2
843.0
850.0
858.3

1,302.7
1,326.6
1,358.5
1,394.5

1,136.2
1,144.1
1,156.8
1,172.2

639.3
652.3
626.7
654.1

634.3
647.5
618.1
648.0

621.5
632.8
626.0
646.8

618.6
630.6
622.1
640.4

938.4
937.2
944.7
954.1

870.4
880.9
881.4
885.3

1,419.2
1,441.9
1,468.2
1,500.1

1,181.4
1,185.8
1,192.0
1,203.6

686.6
667.8
653.0
656.4

678.0
652.1
627.6
616.5

642.6
648.3
652.3
658.4

632.4
628.5
624.6
627.0

977.5
995.3
1,006.6
1,012.4

889.9
889.8
891.9
890.5

1,540.7
1,576.4
1,610.2
1,641.9

1,222.0
1,235.5
1,246.8
1,253.6

685.5
698.5
702.8
764.9

646.4
660.1
667.9
724.7

647.8
665.8
688.3
692.9

616.6
632.3
654.9
657.6

1,016.2
pi, 030. 3

892.7
p888.2

1,674.1
pi,709. 6

1,265.9
pi, 278.0

763.4
p756.5

728.9
p725.0

698.1
p713.5

662.9
p680.0

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

B

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

I
Q GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
261. Total in
1982 dollars

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

17.8
19.5

0.7
7.2

15.8
16.9
-4.0

7.7

260. Total in
current dollars

262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised

1

784.4
801.7
840.2
856.7

705.5
716.7
749.8
752.7

336.1
339.6
368.4
376.6

309.0
313.3
340.9
340.6

448.3
462.1
471.8
480.1

396.4
403.4
408.9
412.1

741.8
758.8
766.9
774.5

356.6
368.7
372.7
366.7

322.7
333.6
336.7
340.5

491.2
500.2
509.1
519.7

419.1
425.2
430.2
434.0

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-2.0

3.0
-10.5

847.8
868.8
881.8
886.5

37.7
32.7
14.5
72.0

29.8
27.8
13.0
67.1

903.8
915.7
932.2
947.3

772.9
772.2
782.9
792.6

372.7
377.5
386.3
391.4

334.0
332.1
342.1
347.7

531.1
538.2
546.0
555.9

438.9
440.1
440.8
444.9

65.3

66.0

p43.0

p45.0

945.2
p954.2

776.4
p777.2

377.7
p375.2

327.8
p325.3

567.5
p579.0

448.7
p451.9

44.0
19.5

0.7

45.7
23.6

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1988



81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

H

Q FOREIGN TRADE
|

Year
and
quarter

256. Constant
(1982) dollars

253. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

Revised 2

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1985

252. Current
dollars

255. Constant
(1982) dollars

250. Current
dollars

220. National income in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

Revised 2

-53.1
-74.3
-81.2
-103.2

-81.4
-102.4
-107.9
-125.3

376.8
372.6
365.1
369.2

371.2
367.6
362.6
367.4

429.9
446.9
446.2
472.4

452.6
470.0
470.5
492.6

3,161.5
3,209.2
3,252.4
3,312.8

2,314.8
2,347.5
2,381.2
2,426.7

-93.0
-101.2
-109.1
-114.3

-115.7
-140.2
-151.8
-142.4

376.9
373.9
377.8
385.2

374.5
372.1
379.1
387.8

469.9
475.1
486.9
499.4

490.2
512.4
530.9
530.2

3,378.9
3,421.8
3,450.9
3,496.6

2,461.0
2,483.4
2,518.2
2,565.8

-119.1
-122.2
-125.2
-125.7

-132.8
-126.0
-130.7
-126.0

395.3
416.8
440.4
459.7

394.9
416.4
440.9
459.2

514.4
539.0
565.6
585.4

527.7
542.3
571.6
585.2

3,573.0
3,631.8
3,708.0
3,802.0

2,608.9
2,652.0
2,702.8
2,769.9

-112.1
p-90.6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-109.0
p-90.1

487.8
p501.1

486.2
p495.6

599.9
p591.7

595.1
p585.7

3,850.8

2,816.4
p2,872.6

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

Q SAVING

BH NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued

Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj 1

284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj 1

(NA)

286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj 1

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

292. Personal
saving

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann., rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

253.2
257.3
248.8
264.2

9.0

318.4
317.4
317.4
322.7

550.9
553.3
509.4
520.3

518.4
532.4
554.1
554.5

128.7
167.8

8.9
7.8

266.0
275.8
296.1
291.4

273.1
294.6
285.0
294.2

10.6
12.5
13.1
13.4

303.2
297.1
301.2
293.9

331.1
334.1
333.3
329.3

571.2
537.5
517.7
522.5

565.6
557.7
562.3
554.3

136.9
154.1

310.1
308.9
306.8
326.0

17.4
17.8
18.1
20.5

298.3
305.2
322.0
316.1

338.3
348.1
358.3
369.5

539.2
542.4
556.8
603.4

549.0
555.5
569.6
570.0

130.8

323.9
p322.6

20.5
p!7.9

316.2

373.9
p382.1

627.0

576.4

(NA)

(NA)

149.9
p!30.6

11.2

93.3

111.7

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

98.8
96.8

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

69.5
72.6

144.0

1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

82




JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Q SAVING-Continued

Year
and
quarter

293. Personal
saving rate

298. Government
surplus or deficit

235. Personal consumption expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised 2

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

Percent of gross national product

Revised

2

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised

2

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment

Revised

2

-96.3
-146.9
-138.0
-145.9

4.7
5.9
3.3
3.9

65.1
65.3
65.8
65.7

4.6
5.1
3.3
3.2

65.5
65.9
66.6
66.8

4.2
2.2
2.3
4.3

66.5
66.7
66.9
66.0

(2)
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.2

r-1.4
-1.9
r-2.0
-2.5

1.1
0.5
0.0
0.0

-2.2
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7

0.9
0.7
0.3
1.5

r-2.7
-2.7
-2.7
-2.7

r4.8
p4.7

10.5
10.3
10.1
10.1

-140.6
-82.6
-85.5
-110.7

Revised

2

r4.9

11.1
11.2
10.8
11.0

-131.4
-174.3
-143.5
-128.5

(Percent)

(Percent)

(2)

251. Net exports of
goods and services

1.4
pO.9

-2.4
p-1.9

4.7
r4.7

4.7
4.8

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

4.9
r5.1

5.2
r5.2

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

5.1
5.1
5.0

9.6
9.8
10.1
10.0

1988

-99.2

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

4.4

66.2

10.0

p3.8

(NA)

p66.3

plO.l

Qj SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter

Percent of GNP— Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)

1985

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

8.6
8.5
r9.1

9.2

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj x

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj *

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised

( )

( )

64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)

2

2

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

Percent of national income

2

Revised

2

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj x

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised

2

Revised

289. Net interest

Revised 2

2

11.4
11.6
11.7
11.7

73.2
73.1
73.2
73.3

8.0
8.0
7.6
8.0

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2

8.4
8.6
9.1
8.8

10.1
9.9
9.8
9.7

rll.8
rll.9

72.8
72.6
73.0
73.4

8.1
8.6
8.3
8.4

0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4

9.0
8.7
8.7
8.4

9.8
9.8
9.7
9.4

r!2.0
r!2.0
rll.9

73.0
73.0
72.9
72.9

8.7
8.5
8.3
8.6

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

8.3
8.4
8.7
8.3

9.5
9.6
9.7
9.7

r!2.0
p!2.0

73.1
(NA)

8.2

9.7
(NA)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

8.5
r8.8

8.7
r8.5

11.9
12.1

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r8.5
r8.4
r8.5

8.4

12.1

1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

8.0
p7.8

8.4
(NA)

0.5
(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
See New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1988



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

| | PRICE MOVEMENTS
^
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982 = 100)
1986

Revised 2

January
February
March .

114.7

October
November
December

Revised 2

113.4

July
August
September

(Ann. rate,
percent)

112.4

April
May
June

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans i

115.3

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
311. Index

(1982 = 100)
Revised 2

31 Ic. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

112.'7

2.1

3.6

113.3
4.7

320. Index @

(1982-84 = 100)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1

(Percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1982-84=100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans x

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 2

1.9

0.7

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

109.6
109.3
108.8
108.6
108.9
109.5

0.3

0.6

-0.3
-0.4

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

0.0

0.2

107.4
107.0
107.3

-0.4

0.3

3.0
2.6
1.9

0.2
0.5

0.4
1.7

107.6
108.0
108.2

0.3
0.4
0.2

3.4
5.9
6.1

109.5
109.7
110.2

0.0
0.2
0.3

2.6
2.8
2.2

109.2
110.1
110.5

0.9
0.8
0.4

5.8
5.8
5.8

110.3
110.4
110.5

0.2
0.3
0.2

3.7
4.1
4.4

110.7
111.1
111.3

0.2
0.4
0.2

5.0
3.7
3.3

3.7

111.2
111.6
112.1

0.7
0.4
0.4

5.0
5.1
5.3

111.9
112.1
112.3

0.5
0.2
0.2

3.6
4.0
4.7

4.0

112.7
113.1
113.5

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.4
4.5
4.1

112.7
113.3
113.9

0.4
0.5
0.5

3.4
3.2
4.0

3.5

113.8
114.4
115.0

0.3
0.4
0.3

3.9
3.7
3.6

113.8
113.9
114.5

3.5

115.3
115.4
115.4

0.3
0.3
0.2

3.7
3.2
3.7

114.7
114.8
115.3

3.0

2.1

2.8

2.3

ni.'i

115.7
116.0
116.5

0.3
0.2
0.5

3.9
4.0
4.4

115.6
115.3
115.7

-0.3

116.5
117.0
117.7

0.7
0.4
0.6

114.8

1987

January
February
March

116.3

April
May
June

117'.3

July
August
September

118.2

October
November
December

118'.9

3.5

115.8
3.5

117.0
3.1

118.0
2.4
119".0

-0.1

0.1
0.5

3.6
2.7
2.5

0.2
0.1
0.4

3.2
2.5
2.1

0.3

3.2
3.9
4.2

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

1.7

119!9

119.4

p4.7

p4.1

pl2CK6

P12K3

117.1
117.5
118.0

0.4
0.3
0.3

0.3

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

84




JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index ©

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1®

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans1©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index ©

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©

(1982 = 100)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1©

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

331. Index

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986

January
February
March

103.2
101.7
100.3

-0.4
-1.5
-1.4

-6.3
-6.5
-7.0

103.7
102.1
100.5

-0.4
-1.5
-1.6

-7.6
-7.9
-8.1

94.2
90.4
88.3

-1.2
-4.0
-2.3

-17.8
-17.4
-18.2

April
May
June

99.6

-0.7

-7.2
-4.7
-1.8

99.8
99.8
99.8

-0.7

-9.2
-6.7
-3.4

85.4
86.8
86.2

-3.3

-15.9

100.0

98.8
98.6
98.8

-1.0
-0.2

-1.4
-1.2
-1.2

86.4
86.6
86.5

-0.1

-0.1
-0.9

0.4

99.9

-0.1

July
August
September

99.4
99.3
99.4

-0.5
-0.1

October
November
December

99.7
99.8
99.7

0.2
-0.4
-0.4

0.1

0.0
0.0

0.2

2.2
3.5
3.7

0.3
0.1
-0.1

99.1
99.2
99.2

0.3
0.1
0.0

3.3
4.5
4.7

87.5
87.4
86.6

1.6
-0.7

-8.2
-4.0

0.2
0.2

5.0
1.4
0.9

1.2

6.3
7.8
9.7

1987

January
February
March

100.5
101.0
101.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

4.5
5.7
6.7

100.4
100.8
101.1

1.2
0.4
0.3

5.1
5.5
6.6

89.1
89.9
90.6

2.9
0.9
0.8

11.3
16.4
19.3

April
May
June

101.9
102.6
103.0

0.7
0.7
0.4

6.1
5.6
5.0

101.6
101.9
102.4

0.5
0.3
0.5

5.5
5.8
4.8

92.3
94.3
94.6

1.9
2.2
0.3

15.1
15.7
12.3

July
August
September

103.5
103.8
103.7

0.5
0.3

4.4
3.1
2.3

103.1
103.7
103.5

0.7
0.6

4.8
4.6
3.5

95.6
96.7
96.0

1.1
1.2
-0.7

October
November
December

104.1
104.2
104.2

2.1

0.5
0.2
0.0

2.5

96.1
94.9
94.7

-1.2
-0.2

r-4.3

2.3

104.0
104.2
104.2

3.3
4.5
6.2

104.4
r!04.6
104.7

r94.6

-0.8
rO.7

-1.7

rO.2
rO.l

94.1

r-0.5

105.6
106.1
106.5

0.9
0.5
0.4

95.3
96.4
97.7

1.3
1.2
1.3

-0.1

0.4
0.1
0.0

rl.9

-0.2

rl.7

2.3

0.1

8.4
1.3
0.2
-3.5
-3.9

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

0.4

104.6
r!04.8
104.9

rO.2
rO.l

105.8
106.5
107.4

0.9
0.7
0.8

0.2

3.1
3.7
4.5

93.9

3.2
6.4

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:

JULY 1988



1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

R PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
I
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332. Index

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1

(1982 = 100)

Producer price index, capital equipment

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

333. Index

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1982 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986

99.9

-0.6
-1.2
-1.2

-6.5
-7.3
-8.0

108.6
108.7
108.9

0.1
0.1
0.2

1.9
1.7
2.0

104.5
102.6
101.2

-0.8
-1.8
-1.4

-6.8
-6.9
-7.8

April
May
June

99.0
98.8
98.7

-0.9
-0.2
-0.1

-8.2
-6.0
-2.6

109.2
109.3
109.6

0.3
0.1
0.3

2.0
1.8
2.0

100.4
101.0
101.1

-0.8

-8.1
-3.7
-0.2

July
August
September

98.0
98.0
98.6

-0.7

-1.6
-1.0
-0.6

109.7
109.7
110.0

0.1
0.0
0.3

2.4
2.8
2.2

100.2
100.7
101.1

-0.9

October
November
December

98.2
98.3
98.4

-0.4

0.5
0.3
0.0

2.8
2.4
2.0

0.4

102.3
101.1

January
February
March

0.0
0.6
0.1
0.1

2.1
3.3
2.4

110.5
110.8
110.8

0.6
0.6
0.2

4.1
5.2
6.0

111.2
111.0
111.1

0.6
0.1
0.5
0.4

2.0
0.8
0.6

101.4
101.4
101.4

0.3
0.0
0.0

3.2
2.8
3.0

1.6
1.3
1.1

101.8
102.1
102.6

0.4
0.3
0.5

3.8
4.4
4.6

0.7
1.6
2.5

103.3
103.6
103.7

0.7
0.3
0.1

4.6
4.4
4.1

1.1
1.1
1.6

104.1
104.3
104.7

0.4
0.2
0.4

2.3
1.7
0.6

2.2

-0.2

1.2

104.5
104.5
104.0

2.5
3.1
3.4

104.4
r!04.0
104.6

0.4
r-0.4

105.1
105.6
106.0

0.5
0.5
0.4

1987

January
February
March

99.0
99.6 •
99.8

April
May
June

100.2
100.8
101.3

0.4
0.6
0.5

5.9
5.7
5.9

111.4
111.5
111.4

July
August
September

101.9
102.4
102.7

0.6
0.5
0.3

6.1
5.6
5.0

111.6
111.9
112.5

October
November
December

103.2
103.6
103.8

0.5
0.4
0.2

4.6
r3.9

4.1

112.0
112.1
112.3

104.2
r!04.4
104.8

rO.2
rO.4

4.7
5.1
6.7

112.8
rl!3.0
113.2

-0.2

0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.1

0.2
0.3
0.5
-0.4

0.1
0.2

r2.0

0.0
-0.5

0.6
r-0.6
-0.2

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

105.6
106.2
107.2

0.4

0.8
0.6
0.9

113.4
113.8
114.2

0.4
rO.2
rO.2

0.2
0.4
0.4

rO.6

1.2
2.1
3.9

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1

Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.




JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls x
Year
and
month

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2

(Percent)

1986

January
February
March

167.5
168.2
168.5

April
May
June

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(3)

(1977 = 100)

(3)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 2

345. Index

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 3

(1977 = 100)

0.4
0.2

2.6
2.4
1.7

93.6
94.3
95.0

r-0.6
0.8
0.7

2.9
2.9
2.2

179^3

168.5
168.8
169.3

0.0
0.2
0.2

2.1
1.6
1.6

r95.5
r95.3
95.2

rO.5

r-0.1

3.4
2.0
0.3

180.5

July
August
September

169.2
169.6
169.8

0.0
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.8
2.3

95.2
95.3
95.1

rO.l

r-0.2

October
November
December

170.3
171.2
171.2

0.3
0.5
0.0

2.5
2.8
2.7

95.3
95.5
95.3

rO.2
-0.2

January
February
March

171.3
171.9
172.1

0.1
0.4
0.1

2.6
2.0
2.1

94.7
94.7
r94.4

-0.7

April
May
June

172.5
172.9
172.9

0.3
0.2
0.1

2.3
2.6
2.9

94.1
94.0
r93.7

r-0.3

July
August
September

173.2
174.1
174.6

0.2
0.5
0.3

2.8
3.3
3.3

93.7
r93.8
93.7

October
November
December

174.9
175.6
175.7

0.2
0.4
0.1

4.0
3.0
2.8

176.6
176.7
177.0

0.5
0.1
0.2

-0.2

-0.2

0.0

0.1

3.9

2.8
3.*4

2.9

-0.4

0.3
0.2

3^6

2.7

181 '.8
4.0

-1.1
-1.3
-1.6

183 '.6

-2.4
-3.1
-3.3

184 .'l

-2.1
-2.0
-1.5

185 .'5

187.1

r-0.1

-1.3
-0.5
-0.1

r93.5
93.8
93.7

-0.2
rO.3
-0.1

-0.1
-0.4

93.8
93.7
93.5

-0.1
-0.2

2.8

1987

0.0
-0.3

-0.1

r-0.3
-0.1
rO.l

1.1
2.*9

3.0
2.*8

3.5
p3.3

3.4

0.2
188 ! 7

(NA)

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

r!78.0
r!78.6
p!78.5

rO.6
rO.4

p-0.1

r3.6
r3.4
p3.2

r93.6
r93.5
p93.2

0.1

p3.4

0.1
-0.5

p!9CL2

p-1.1
(NA)

rO.l

r-0.1
p-0.4

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

licit

JULY 1988




87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

I
H WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector— Continued
Year
and
month

348. Average
first-year
changes @

Real compensation
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

346. Index

(1977 = 100)

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, business sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

370. Index

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector

(1977 = 100)

1986

January
February
March

2.3

0.6

1.2

99.3

April
May
June

100.4

July
August
September

100.5

October
November
December

IOCLS

5.8

i.'i

109.5

4.2

0.7

1.6

2.1

1.2

Q.A

1.3

-i'.o

0.6
109. ' 7

0.7

0.5

107.*7

-0.3

109^6

2.7

107.7

2.4

CL2

107.'5

0!4

107^5

1.6

107.6

1.3

losio

-0.1

109^6

1987

January
February
March

99.8

April
May
June

99.3

July
August
September

99*. 3

October
November
December

99.2

-4.1

1.1

2.1

-l'.2
-1.7

-i:«

-0.3

4.1

2.5

3.9

2.1

p-0.6
-0.3

0.5
109.7

3.4

110:1
ni.'s

2.4

(NA)

1.4

4.7

109 .'i
-1.5

110.9

(NA)

108.8

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

pO.O

rpl.8

109^8

111.8

(NA)
(NA)

3.2

pi. 8

p99.2

p3.4

(NA)

p2.4

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter chan^ es are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

442. Civilian
employment

Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

January
February
March

116,751
116,951
117,183

108,904
108,524
108,853

7,847
8,427
8,330

3,521
3,766
3,778

2,920
3,180
3,109

1,406
1,481
1,443

6,447
6,825
6,861

5,301
5,209
5,307

78.3
78.1
78.1

55.0
55.1
55.1

53.4
54.5
54.9

April
May
June

117,334
117,481
118,112

108,961
109,037
109,671

8,373
8,444
8,441

3,724
3,836
3,791

3,102
3,116
3,133

1,547
1,492
1,517

6,814
6,926
6,792

5,564
5,600
5,381

78.0
78.0
78.2

55.2
55.3
55.7

55.5
55.1
55.4

July
August
September

118,115
118,150
118,345

109,837
110,035
110,047

8,278
8,115
8,298

3,820
3,661
3,831

3,025
3,005
2,991

1,433
1,449
1,476

6,691
6,553
6,792

5,149
5,288
5,337

78.1
77.9
78.1

55.7
55.8
55.7

54.6
54.9
54.9

October
November
December

118,424
118,671
118,576

110,194
110,457
110,657

8,230
8,214
7,919

3,817
3,807
3,728

3,007
2,971
2,826

1,406
1,436
1,365

6,704
6,672
6,481

5,438
5,270
5,324

77.9
78.2
78.3

55.8
55.8
55.6

54.9
54.4
53.4

January
February
March

118,978
119,230
119,246

111,014
111,344
111,455

7,964
7,886
7,791

3,691
3,606
3,553

2,877
2,858
2,832

1,396
1,422
1,406

6,473
6,397
6,248

5,211
5,458
5,180

78.2
78.2
78.1

55.8
55.9
55.9

54.3
54.7
54.3

April
May
June

119,363
119,907
119,608

111,806
112,334
112,300

7,557
7,573
7,308

3,454
3,456
3,422

2,733
2,700
2,634

1,370
1,417
1,252

6,083
6,053
6,000

5,104
5,058
4,979

78.1
78.2
78.0

56.0
56.2
56.2

54.2
55.2
53.6

July
August
September

119,890
120,306
119,963

112,639
113,050
112,872

7,251
7,256
7,091

3,323
3,258
3,118

2,680
2,661
2,671

1,248
1,337
1,302

5,852
5,812
5,636

5,154
5,016
4,986

78.0
77.9
77.9

56.3
56.3
56.2

54.0
56.3
54.4

October
November
December

120,387
120,594
120,722

113,210
113,504
113,744

7,177
7,090
6,978

3,174
3,135
3,063

2,615
2,620
2,611

1,388
1,335
1,304

5,725
5,684
5,601

5,067
5,241
5,004

78.0
78.0
77.8

56.4
56.5
56.6

55.1
54.8
55.5

January
February
March

121,175
121,348
120,903

114,129
114,409
114,103

7,046
6,938
6,801

3,154
3,071
3,089

2,581
2,635
2,411

1,312
1,232
1,301

5,603
5,549
5,498

5,145
5,254
5,106

77.9
78.2
77.9

56.7
56.8
56.6

56.0
54.9
53.9

April
May
June

121,323
120,978
121,472

114,713
114,195
115,018

6,610
6,783
6,455

2,909
3,072
2,870

2,442
2,481
2,473

1,259
1,230
1,112

5,302
5,418
5,111

4,924
4,623
5,076

78.2
77.9
77.8

56.7
56.4
56.6

54.2
54.0
56.2

1986

1987

1988

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.

JULY 1988




OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Q DEFENSE INDICATORS
|

Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
|
Federal Government1
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1986

Revised

2

State and local government 1

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised

2

Revised

510. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2

Revised

2

512. Expenditures

511. Receipts

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised

Advance measures of defense activity

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

2

Revised

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

2

January
February
March

-198.'6

806 ! 7

1,005.3

67.2

613!l

545! 9

28,411
30,247
30,969

12,843
9,715
13,822

185,822
188,008
190,756

8,502
9,193
12,214

April
May
June

-234.4

816.3

1,050 '.7

6o!i

616!&

556!s

29,758
30,267
33,056

13,136
11,052
12,949

188,903
189,004
193,207

8,071
9,036
8,314

July
August
September

-206!l

833!6

1,039!7

62^7

629.6

566.9

31,199
29,968
30,678

13,810
11,432
12,315

196,185
198,635
199,295

10,062
7,900
10,304

October
November
December

-183.3

856.8

1,040.1

54.8

632.9

578'.1

28,383
30,341
26,583

9,450
11,866
11,581

198,408
198,337
197,769

7,827
10,031
7,738

January
February
March

-188.3

871.3

1,059.6

47!7

637!5

589! 9

25,911
34,669
28,986

10,617
12,546
12,167

196,585
199,440
199,308

5,813
7,344
9,658

April
May
June

-144*.6

92CLO

i.oeiio

6l!i

659.3

597.9

33,794
32,801
30,475

12,138
12,103
12,748

200,411
202,504
204,177

11,275
r9,lll
r9,820

July
August
September

-138.3

930.1

1,068.'4

52.*9

659!l

606 ! 2

31,867
32,619
34,065

13,667
12,881
13,609

207,148
209,556
215,074

rlO,084
9,521
9,112

October
November
December

-i6o!i

944^4

i,ioi!9

49^7

666.9

617.2

29,233
30,794
24,532

10,613
9,383
11,912

212,355
212,086
205,974

10,001
9,739
9,048

-155.1

951.6

1,106.1

55^8

685.5

629^7

31,157
33,243
31,595

7,871
11,080
11,901

208,366
210,637
212,335

9,104
8,556
9,804

(NA)

pi, 104^9

(NA)

p642!2

33,172
p32,294

16,222
p!4,301

210,520
p214,223

r9,958
r8,102
p!5,280

1987

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page

90



JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Qj DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment, defense
products industries

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty®

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

1986

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

Revised 1

(1977 = 100)

n

January
February
March

178.9
178.0
178.6

31,787
31,471
32,467

160,175
161,009
164,969

20,152
21,586
23,342

7,779
8,359
8,254

1,570
1,572
1,572

2,157
2,160
2,160

1,103
1,087
1,084

266*.8

6.4

April
May
June

179.8
180.2
180.7

32,962
33,329
33,549

164,580
164,951
164,147

22,101
22,921
21,954

8,460
8,665
9,118

1,581
1,588
1,564

2,150
2,150
2,143

1,081
1,072
1,060

277.2

e".6

July
August
September

182.4
183.7
184.6

33,618
33,810
34,206

165,201
164,505
165,918

22,538
21,714
23,886

9,008
8,596
8,891

1,592
1,589
1,590

2,150
2,161
2,169

1,059
1,052
1,072

288 '.0

6.7

October
November
December

185.6
185.5
186.2

34,482
34,330
34,005

164,584
164,887
162,098

22,324
21,168
22,512

9,161
9,728
10,527

1,592
1,591
1,590

2,177
2,181
2,178

1,069
1,063
1,059

278.1

e!5

January
February
March

187.3
188.9
188.6

34,240
34,332
34,197

159,557
158,477
158,532

22,243
24,096
23,259

8,354
8,424
9,603

1,593
1,591
1,588

2,179
2,172
2,168

1,061
1,067
1,070

287.3

r6.5

April
May
June

189.2
189.3
188.6

34,764
r34,872
34,849

160,947
r!60,786
r!61,167

23,593
22,760
24,046

8,860
r9,272
r9,439

1,584
1,587
1,585

2,158
2,153
2,151

1,072
1,068
1,070

294.8

6^6

July
August
September

188.7
189.1
189.8

35,599
36,065
36,311

162,345
163,071
162,659

22,858
24,340
21,513

8,906
8,795
9,524

1,588
1,589
1,590

2,158
2,167
2,174

1,074
1,076
1,090

299.8

e!e

October
November
December

190.3
188.7
188.9

36,868
37,609
37,026

163,526
164,025
162,979

25,816
21,276
26,329

9,134
9,240
10,094

1,593
1,592
1,592

2,172
2,174
2,167

1,090
1,087
1,083

299.2

rV.4

January
February
March

190.6
191.0
r!89.9

37,103
37,305
37,305

163,650
163,706
164,013

20,786
23,441
23,752

8,433
8,500
9,497

1,599
1,596
1,587

2,166
2,162
2,142

1,077
1,071
1,067

298.4

r6.3

April
May
June

r!88.6
r!87.1
p!87.9

r37,598
p38,274
(NA)

r!65,503
r!65,238
p!71,445

r8,468
r8,367
p9,073

1,588
pi, 587
(NA)

2,108
2,100
p2,105

1,059
pi, 053
(NA)

p295!7

P e!2

1987

1988

26,548
r20,130
p23,868

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1988



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q MERCHANDISE TRADE
|
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments

604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

18,557
18,520
17,999

2,320
2,283
2,135

3,854
4,294
3,740

30,600
28,866
29,124

4,978
4,254
3,578

5,044
5,378
5,018

April
May
June

18,762
19,023
20,038

2,043
1,960
1,819

3,981
3,644
3,582

30,287
29,390
29,960

2,084
2,718
2,731

5,044
5,054
5,535

July
August
September

19,731
17,970
18,282

2,062
2,231
2,111

3,585
4,091
3,812

30,969
30,122
31,738

2,483
2,225
2,435

6,242
6,280
4,909

October
November
December

19,728
19,295
19,255

2,447
2,204
2,352

3,932
4,138
4,227

30,953
32,666
30,762

2,155
2,788
2,299

5,790
7,156
5,483

January
February
March

18,399
19,327
20,171

1,926
2,047
2,157

3,452
4,404
4,098

31,666
31,825
32,271

2,269
3,598
3,513

4,882
6,322
5,329

April
May
June

20,402
20,260
21,107

2,234
2,410
2,445

4,122
4,176
4,338

31,978
32,514
34,418

2,842
3,685
3,375

5,516
6,093
5,823

July
August
September

22,430
20,883
21,810

2,956
2,520
2,625

4,260
4,420
4,717

34,625
34,492
34,582

4,125
4,574
3,439

5,800
6,008
5,307

October
November
December

22,074
23,094
24,152

2,593
2,409
2,472

4,407
5,371
5,371

35,966
35,316
36,586

3,780
3,292
3,158

6,776
6,342
6,560

24,488
24,518
26,876

2,634
2,936
3,030

5,040
5,177
5,442

34,258
37,729
36,644

3,541
3,536
3,225

5,441
5,659
5,677

r26,026
26,623

3,030
3,327

5,288
5,374

r34,825
36,038

3,226
3,802

6,220
5,507

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1987

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

92



JULY

1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
El

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Qj GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted x

Goods and services
Year

668. Exports

667. Balance

622. Balance

669. Imports

and

Income on investment
620. Imports

618. Exports

651. U.S. investment abroad

month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

-29,485

93,067

122,552

-35,433

54,113

89,546

24,352

17,357

-29,629

94,088

123,717

-33,861

56,946

90,807

22,248

17,533

July
August
September

-31,288

93,493

124, 781

-36, 72i

56,268

92,989

21,845

15,729

October
November
December

-33,118

94,408

127,526

-38,532

56,642

95,174

21,667

16,350

-34,657

98,907

133,564

-39,871

56,791

96,662

24,791

19,715

-37,727

100,353

138,080

-39,552

59,864

99,416

22,429

20,737

July
August
September

-38,987

106,318

145,305

-39,665

64,902

104,567

23,289

22,222

October
November
December

-29,150

119,247

148,397

-41,192

68,013

109,205

33,248

20,709

p-36,600

pl!8,847

p!55,447

p-35,945

p74,672

pllO,617

p25,114

p25,709

April
May

June

1987

January
February
March
April
May

June

1988

January
February
March
April
May

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on (
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
I
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

JULY 1988



93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q| INDUSTRIE L PRODUCTION

Year
and
month

47. United States,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

1

721. OECD
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

1986
January
February
March

126.4
125.5
123.9

112
113
112

144.6
144.8
144.8

113
113
113

107
105
105

108
110
109

108.4
110.9
113.8

127.6
128.1
125.5

April
May
June

124.7
124.3
124.1

115
111
114

144.4
144.2
144.5

117
112
116

109
104
108

111
109
109

114.9
108.7
113.9

128.9
126.9
125.5

July
August
September

124.8
124.9
124.5

115
114
114

144.2
141.9
145.8

117
114
114

109
109
109

111
111
111

111.1
110.0
109.8

126.8
125.6
126.3

October
November
December

125.3
125.7
126.8

114
114
113

143.8
141.9
142.0

114
114
112

109
107
107

111
111
110

111.0
112.2
111.1

126.2
126.2
128.5

January
February
March

126.2
127.1
127.4

112
115
115

141.3
r!40.8
r!42.8

111
114
rl!4

105
109
109

110
112
112

111.8
115.2
117.6

128.0
129.2
129.9

April
May
June

127.4
128.2
129.1

115
116
116

r!41.7
r!39.5
r!44.7

rl!6
116
114

108
110
111

112
rl!2
113

115.5
119.7
116.2

129.9
130.7
132.0

July
August
September

130.6
131.2
131.0

rl!6
115
116

r!45.9
r!45.9
r!48.2

rl!3
rl!7
116

110
110
111

113
115
rl!3

115.6
rllO.8
115.1

131.8
134.2
135.0

October . .
November
December

132.5
133.2
133.9

117
rl!8
117

r!50.7
r!51.1
r!52.9

rl!7
rl!7
117

110
111
112

115
115
115

120.1
118.7
114.0

135.8
136.5
137.2

134.4
134.4
134.7

118
117
pl!8

r!53.7
r!57.7
158.0

rl!6
118
118

rl!2
rl!2
112

115
rl!3
115

124.2
rl!8.9
119.2

r!37.6
r!37.4
r!38.3

r!35.4
r!36.1
p!36.6

(NA)

p!56.8
(NA)

pl!7
(NA)

pill
(NA)

pl!6
(NA)

p!21.7
(NA)

p!38.8
(NA)

1987

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



JULY 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q CONSUMER PRICES
United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

Japan

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

United Kingdom

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986

105.0
104.9
104.8

1.2
0.4
0.0

105.5
105.2
104.9

-0.4
-0.8
-1.3

116.1
115.9
116.1

1.4
1.2
1.2

113.1
113.5
113.7

3.2
2.9
1.8

105.1
105.4
104.9

-0.6

0.4
1.7

-0.6

104.9
104.9
105.0

-1.9
-1.1
-0.6

116.6
116.9
117.2

1.6
2.4
3.3

114.8
115.0
114.9

1.1
1.1
2.1

109.5
109.7
110.2

2.6
2.8
2.2

104.6
104.4
104.9

-1.7
-0.4
-0.6

104.5
104.2
104.4

-1.1
-1.5
-0.8

117.4
117.5
118.0

2.9
2.9
3.1

114.6
114.9
115.5

2.8
4.2
5.9

110.3
110.4
110.5

3.7
4.1
4.4

105.0
104.5
104.3

-1.9
-2.3
-0.2

104.1
104.0
104.2

0.0
0.2
0.0

118.2
118.4
118.5

4.5
4.3
3.6

115.7
116.7
117.1

6.8
6.9
5.6

January
February
March

111.2
111.6
112.1

5.0
5.1
5.3

103.9
103.9
104.3

2.3
0.4
1.3

104.6
104.7
104.7

1.2
1.5
1.2

119.6
119.8
120.0

4.1
4.1
3.4

117.5
118.0
118.2

5.4
3.8
2.4

April
May
June

112.7
113.1
113.5

4.4
4.5
4.1

105.2
105.4
105.2

2.1
3.3
1.9

104.9
105.0
105.2

1.7
1.7
1.0

120.6
120.9
121.1

2.4
2.7
2.5

119.6
119.7
119.7

2.2
2.0
2.7

July
August
September

113.8
114.4
115.0

3.9
3.7
3.6

104.7
104.8
105.7

105.2
105.1
104.9

0.8
0.4
0.8

121.4
121.7
121.7

2.3
2.3
2.8

119.6
120.0
120.3

3.7
4.6
4.8

October
November
December

115.3
115.4
115.4

3.7
3.2
3.7

105.7
105.2
105.1

-1.7
-0.4

0.0
1.0

122.0
122.2
122.2

2.2
2.1
2.5

120.9
121.5
121.4

4.2
4.2
4.0

January
February
March

115.7
116.0
116.5

3.9
4.0
4.4

104.8
104.6
105.0

-0.2
(NA)

1.1
1.7
1.3

122.4
122.7
123.0

2.6
2.6

121.4
121.9
122.3

April
May
June

117.1
117.5
118.0

January
February
March

109.6
109.3
108.8

April
May
June

108.6
108.9
109.5

July
August
September
October
November
December

0.6
-0.2

0.0
-0.5

0.0

1987

-0.9

1.0
0.0
0.0

105.0
105.0
105.2

-0.2

1988

105.5
105.6
(NA)

1.3

105.4
105.6
105.7
106.0
106.2
106.3

(NA)

123.6
123.9

124.3
124.8

(NA)

3.8
3.8
(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

JULY 1988




95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q STOCK PRICES
|

Q CONSUMER PRICES-Continued

Year
and
month

737. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks @

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

Canada

Italy

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

1986
January
February
March

125.9
126.8
127.2

6.8
6.6
5.3

111.4
111.8
112.1

4.4
4.8
2.9

226.5
238.6
252.7

936.5
964.8
1,052.8

327.1
320.8
329.6

438.3
468.6
514.8

647.8
690.0
755.0

303.8
343.9
430.2

321.2
322.7
344.3

April
May
June

127.6
128.1
128.6

5.5
5.5
4.8

112.2
112.8
112.9

3.2
3.6
3.6

258.9
259.4
266.8

1,116.7
1,144.6
1,203.9

345.8
318.7
313.8

590.3
600.2
537.2

780.6
756.2
764.9

512.3
580.0
485.1

347.9
352.8
348.6

July
August
September

128.6
128.8
129.2

4.0
3.3
3.4

113.8
114.1
114.1

4.5
4.5
5.4

261.3
266.5
259.2

1,262.7
1,354.5
1,361.4

293.2
316.3
327.2

580.0
605.1
603.4

755.5
750.0
767.2

483.2
562.7
554.7

331.7
342.2
336.6

October
November
December

129.9
130.4
130.8

3.9
3.0
3.7

114.7
115.3
115.5

4.3
4.1
4.8

258.2
266.6
270.4

1,280.3
1,297.0
1,406.4

322.1
325.2
331.9

609.7
616.6
652.2

750.7
774.1
779.4

557.1
546.3
514.8

343.4
344.3
346.5

January
February
March

131.6
132.1
132.6

4.2
4.7
4.5

115.8
116.3
116.8

4.4
4.7
4.2

287.7
305.6
318.1

1,492.7
1,577.3
1,675.5

308.8
285.2
288.5

642.1
660.1
708.1

841.0
917.9
973.1

526.7
502.9
501.9

378.4
395.4
422.5

April
May
June

132.9
133.4
133.9

4.8
5.9
6.5

117.3
118.0
118.3

5.1
5.2
4.7

314.7
314.5
327.8

1,856.7
1,937.3
1,965.7

304.2
302.3
313.7

725.9
703.6
664.6

957.2
1,042.0
1,098.5

533.2
533.4
p521.5

420.0
416.4
422.6

July
August
September

134.3
134.6
135.6

6.8
6.4
5.5

119.2
119.3
119.3

4.5
3.8
4.1

337.3
358.3
346.6

1,806.9
1,902.6
1,888.0

327.7
340.7
330.0

691.9
704.9
729.8

1,155.7
1,102.2
1,121.9

494.8
466.0
451.9

455.4
451.3
440.9

October
November
December

136.8
137.2
137.4

5.1
4.0
3.4

119.7
120.2
120.3

3.1
2.9
3.5

304.8
266.5
262.1

1,831.8
1,676.8
1,654.9

306.1
234.2
224.2

632.8
508.5
423.5

1,028.6
795.0
810.9

450.0
366.9
361.0

341.2
336.5
357.1

January
February
March

138.1
138.5
139.1

3.5
3.5
4.0

120.5
121.0
121.6

3.5
4.4
4.0

272.5
280.8
289.1

1,654.9
1,797.4
1,909.4

213.0
223.3
237.7

465.0
501.6
510.3

864.2
859.2
889.6

349.1
334.1
377.2

345.4
362.1
374.4

April
May
June

139.6
140.0
140.4

285.7
278.6
294.4

1,960.5
1,962.2
rpl,995.5

235.9
230.4
rp245.7

523.5
545.7
rp594.7

880.3
879.1
rp908.7

383.5
359.7
361.4

377.4
367.1
388.9

P292.0

pi, 976.1

p255.4

p607.8

p919.2

p379.2

P392.5

1987

1988

122.0
122.8
122.9

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
^"Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96



JULY 1988

ltd*

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan. F e b .
1.

1954...
1955 . . .
1956.. .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961.. .
1962. ..
1963. . .
1964...
1 9 6 5 . ..
1966...
1967...
1968. . .
1969...
1970. . .
1971...
1972. ..
1973. . .
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977 . ..
1978. . .
1979...
1980. . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983...
1984. . .
1985 . . .
1986. . .
1 9 8 7 . ..
1988. ..

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

39.5
40.3
40.8
40.3
38.8
40.1
40.5
39.2
40.0
40.4
40.1
41.2

39.7
40.5
40.6
40.4
38.6
40.2
40.1
39.3
40.3
40.3
40.6
41.2

39.5
40.7

39.4
40.6

39.5
40.9

40.
38.
40.
39.
39.
40.
40 .
40.
41.

40. 1
38.6
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.7
40.2
40.8
41.0

39.8
38.8
40.6
40.0
39 .6
40.5
40.5
40.7
41.2

40.3
40.7

40.9
40.4

40.7
40.8

40.5
40.0
40.7

40.9
40.7

39.9
40.2

39.7
40.4

39.8

39.7

39 .9

40.4
40.9
40.7
39.9
40.0

40.5
39.2
40.5
39.7
39.6

40.4
38.9
40.3
40.3
39.9

40.4
38.8
40.2
40.2
40.5

39.3
39.2
39.6
40.4
40.8

40.3
39.0
40.3
40.4
40.4

40.2
39.2
40.2
40.5
40.5

40.1
40.1
37.3
39.4
40.7
40.4
40.8
40.9

21.

40.1
39.8
39.5
39.2
41.0
40.1
40.6
41.1

39.8
39.9
39.1
39.6
40.7
40.5
40.7
41.0

39.7
40.0
39.0
40.0

39 .4
40.2
39. 1
40.0

39.2
40.0
39.2
40.2

40.8
40.7

40.7
41.0

40.5
40.6
41.0

AVERAGE WEEKLY OVERTIME

1955 . ..
1956. ..
1957 . . .
1 9 5 8 . ..
1959 . . .
1960...
196 1. . .
1962. ..
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
1967. . .
1968...
1 9 6 9 . ..
1970. . .
1971...
1972. ..
1973.. .
1974. . .
1975. . .
1976 . . .
1977 . . .
1978. ..
1979...
1980...
1981...

July

Sept.

Aug.

A V E R A G E W E E K L Y H O U R S O F P R O D U C T I O N O R N O N S U P E R V IS O R Y W O R K E R S
(HOURS)

Dec.

1 Q

II Q

in Q

IV Q

9.7
0.6

39.5
40.7

39.6
40.9
40.5

40. 1
41.0

40.0
40.8
40.5

39.6
40.5

39.5
40.7

39.6
40.6

39.9
40.9
40.5

39.0
40.5
39.8
39.9
40.4
40.6
40.7
41.1

9 .2
0.2
9.8
0.0
0 .4
0.5
0.8
1.1

9 .4
0.3
9.7
0.1
0.3

39.6
40. 1
39.4
39.5
40.5

39.5
40. 1
39.6
40.2
40.2

39 .8
39.8
39 .2
40.5
40.3

39.8
40.2
38.4
40.3
40.2

38.7
40.2
40.2
39.3
40.3

38.8
40.5
39.8
39.7
40.5

39.4
40.2
39.6
39.9
40.4

0.9
1 .0

40.5
40.8

40.6
41.2

40.8
41.3

41. 1
41.4

40.4
41.3

40.7
41.1

40.7
41.0

40.8
40.6
40.0
39.9
40.5

40.9
40.7
39.3
39.4
40.6
40.7
40.0
39.9
39.8
40.4
40.6

40.6
40.9
40.6
39.5
39.9

40.6
40.8
40.4
39.5
40.0

40.7
40.7
40.5
39.5
40.2

40.6
40.6
40.2
39.8

40.6
40.7
39.9
39.9

40.8
40.6
39.7
39.7

40.2
39.4
40.3
40.3
40.6

40.7
40.6
39.8
39.8
40.6
40.5
40.2
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.5

39.7
40.0
39.1
40.3
40.2
40.6
40.8
41.3
41.1
40.6
40.8
40.5
39.5
40.0
40.7

39.5
39.9
40.1

39.3
40.2
40.0

40.4
39.0
40.3

39.9
39.1
40.0

40.1
39.7
40.1

39.6
40.0
40.0

39.1
39.9
39.2
40.3
40.6
40.5
40.6
41.0

39.5
40. 0
39.0
40.3
40.5
40.6
40.8
41.0

39.6
39.4
38.8

40.0
39.8
40.0
40.5
40.5
40.2
39.7
39.6
38.9

40.6
40.1
39.9
39.4
39 .0

40.6
40.2
40. 1
39.3
39. 1

40.0
40.5
40.0
39.9
38.6
39.4
40.8

40.6
39.9
39.4
40.1
39.1
40.1
40.8

40.6
40.2
39.4
39.8
39.0
40.4
40.6

40.7
41.2

40.8
41.2

40.8
41.0

40.7
41.0

40.7
40.9

40.7
40.9

40.6
40.2
39.9
39.4
39.0
40.6
40.5
40.8
40.8
41.1

H O U R S OF P R O D U C T I O N
(HOURS)

OR N O N S U P E R V I S O R Y

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

9.6
0.6
0.2

40.6
40.8
40.6

WORKERS,

39.6
40.7
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
41.2
41.4
40.6
40.7
40.6
39.8
39.9
40.5
40.7
40.0
39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
40.7
41.0

MANUFACTURING1
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

2.9
2.6
1.8
2.6
2.8
2.1
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.6

2 .7

2.8

2.7

2 .6

2 .6

2.5

2 .7

1 .7
2 .8
2.7
2. 1
2.8
2.8
2 .9
3.7

1.7
2 .8
2.4
2 .2
2.9
2.6
3. 1
3.4

1.8
2 .9

1.9
2.9

1 .9
2.8

2 .1
2.8

2 .3
2.9
2.8
3. 1
3.6

2 .3
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.6

2 .4
2 .8
2.9
3.1
3.6

2.5
2 .6
2.9
3.3
3.5

3.
3.
3.
3.
2 .
3.
3.
3.

3.4
3.5
3.6
3.2
2.8
3.2
4.0
3.5

3.3
3.5
3.6
3.2
2.8
3 .3
3.8
3 .5

3.3
3.1
3.7
3.0
2.8
3.6
4.1
2 .8

3 .3
3.6

3.2
3.6

3.3
3.6

3.4
3.5

2 .2
2 .7
2.3
2 .5
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.9
3.5
3.6

3 .0
2.9
3.4
3.9
3 .5

3. 1

3.0

3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.

3.1
3.3
3.7
3.6
3.0
2.9

3.2
3 .3
3.5
3.7
3.1
2.9

2 .6
3.6
3 .9
2 .9
2.9
2 .8

3.3
3.5
3.5
3.4
2.6
3.0

3.5
3.8
3.4
2.5
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.4
2 .4
3.0

3.4
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.4
2 .5
2 .9

2.9
2.9
3.5
3.7
3.3
2 .8
3. 1
3.5
3.5
3 .2
2 .6
2 .9

2.
3.
3.
3.5
3.6

2.4
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.6

2 .6
3.5
3.2

2.8
3 .6
3.3

2 .8
3.4
3.2

2 .9
3.4
3.2

3.0
3.4

3.7

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.5
3.8

40.

Nov.

39.6
40.6
40.1

3.1
2.8
1.8
2.5
3.
2.
2 .
2.
2.
3.

1983. . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986. . .
1987 . . .
1988. ..

Oct.

MANUFACTURING

2.9
2.7
1.8
2.6
2.8
2 .1
2 .8
2.8
2.9
3.6
4.0
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
3.2
3.9
3.5
2.4
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.6

2.7
2.4
1.8
2.9
2.4
2.3
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.5
4.0
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.0
2.9
3.5
3.9
3.2
2.4
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.2

2.6
2.2
2.1
2.8
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.9
3.4
3.6
3.6
2.9
2.9
3.5
3.8
3.3
2.7
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.3

2.8
2.0
2.4
2 .6
2 .2
2 .7
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.8
3.8
3.4
3.7
3.5
2.7
2.9
3.7
3.8
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.2

3.3
3.3

3.9
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.6
3.7
3.2
3.0
2.5
2.3
3.3
3 .4

2.9
1.9
2.5
2 .6
2.0
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.4
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.5
2.7
3.0
3.7
3.7
2 .7
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.2
3.1
2 .4
2.3
3.3
3.3

2.9
2.4
2.5
3.5

2.9
2.4
2.8
3.5

2.8
2.3
3.1
3.3

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.5
3.6

3.4
3.7

3.5
3.8

2.5
2.3
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.9

19, 750
2 0 , 511
21, 160
21, 1 3 6
19, 203
20, 643
20, 639
751
20, 505
20, 649
2 0 , 916
21, 751
2 3 , 111
23, 231
691

19,458
20,654
20,952
20,937
19,344
20,436
20,360
19,936
20,540
20,720
21,111
22,036
23,318
23,233
23,795

2.7
2.9

2.8
2.1
2.2
2.7
2.4
2 .6
2.7
2.9
3. 1
3.7
3.9
3.4
3.7
3.5
2.7
2.9

2.7
2.1
2.4
2 .4
2. 1
2 .7
2.7
2 .9
3. 1
3.8
3.8
3.3
3.8
3.5
2.6
2.9

3.8
3.2
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.2
2 .7
2.7

3.8
3.2
2 .8
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.2
2.8
2 .6

3.1
3.3

3.3
3.3

3.5
3.8

3.5

EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRI CULTURAL PAYROLLS, GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES
(THOUSANDS)

AVERAGE

2.8
2 .3
2.0
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.8
2 .8
3.1
3.6
3.9
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.0
2 .9
3.5
3.8
3.3
2 .6
3. 1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.7

FOR PERIOD

1954...
1955...
19 6 ...
19 7 ...
19 8. . .
19 9. . .
19 0 . . .
19 1. . .
19 2 . . .
19 3 . . .
19 4. . .
19 5. . .
19 6 . . .
19 7. . .
19 8. . .

20,219
19,832
20,997
21, 96
20, 83
2 0 , 61
20, 89

20, 163
19,984
21,087
21,278
19,730
20,121
20,903

20,030
20,191
21 , 0 2 4
21,269
19,504
20,315
20,636

19,877
20,367
21,137
2 1 , 192
19 , 2 6 6
20,520
20,721

19 , 7 2 7
20,526
21, 35
21 , 24
19 , 65
20, 44
20, 53

19 , 6 4 6
20,641
21,207
21,092
19,178
20,765
20,544

19 , 4 7 6
20,626
20,596
21,026
19,219
20,793
20,451

19,418
20,661
21 , 124
20,942
19,320
20,273
20,375

19,479
20,675
21,13
20,84
19,49
20,24
20,25

19,547
20,789
21,261
20,741
19,426
20,127
20,151

19,705
20,876
21,214
20,539
19 , 8 1 7
20,339
20,012

19,748
20,942
21,292
20,418
19 , 8 3 8
20,720
19,752

20,137
20,002
21,036
2 1,248
19,806
20,166
20,776

20,
20,
20,
21,
22,
23,
23,

22
63
08
59
15
88
36

20,304
20,425
20,830
21,560
22,793
23,389
23,542

20,328
20,447
20,832
21 ,606
22,950
23,314
23,542

20,526
20,615
20,875
21,642
23,002
23,282
23 ,663

20,
20,
20,
21 ,
23,
23,

16
81
15
63
82
11

20,473
20,650
20,958
21,849
23,250
23,200

20,526
20,697
21,020
21,941
23,291
23,236

20,546
2 0 , 7 17
21,088
22,032
23,363
23 ,238

20,548
20,745
21,225
22,134
23 , 2 9 9
23 , 2 2 6

20,552
20,769
20,983
22 ,206
23,373
23,205

20,505
20,707
21,307
22,373
23,419
23 , 4 4 0

20,428
20,723
21,402
22,536
23,467
23,474

20,251
20,445
20,757
21,542
22,786
23,397

19 0. . .
19 1.. .
19 2 . . .

24, 90
22,41
23, 26

24,198
22 ,841
23,269

22,828

22,917

22 , 77
23,588

22,918
23,661

23,598
22,885
23,574

22,844
23,694

23,375
22,982
23,795

22,830
22,933
24,004

23,038
24,121

23,067
24,188

19 4 . . .
19
5...
19 6 ...
19 7 ...
19 8. . .
19 9 . . .
1980. . .
1981...

25, 00
2 3, 9 6

25,219
22,777

24,702
25,139
22 , 4 7 8

24,745
25 ,094
22 ,328

25 ,054
22,352

25 , 0 0 3
22,291

24,911
22,251

24,834
22,445

24,726
2 2 ,6 16

24,587
22,727

24 , 2 16
22,762

23,659
22,887

22,870
23 , 3 0 0
24,570
25,186
22,850

22 , 9 3 7
23 , 5 7 8
24, 823
25, 050
22 , 3 2 4

22,904
23,688
24,963
24,824
22,437

1983. . .

1985 . . .
1986...
1 9 8 7 . ..
1988

19,667
20,869
21,256
20,566
19,694
20,395
19,972
20, 116
20,495
20,733
21,231
22,372
23,420
23,373
23,979

19,751
20,513
21 , 104
20,964
19,513
20,411
20,434
19 , 8 5 7
20,451
20,640
21 , 0 0 5
21,926
23 , 158
23 ,308
23,737
23,578
22,935
23 ,668
24,893
24,794
22 ,600
23,352
24,346
25 , 5 8 5
26,461

31

23,777

23, 9 9 0

24,178

24,306

24,438

24,522

24,508

24,622

24,662

24,741

24,745

26,257

26 , 2 8 9

26 , 5 0 1

26 , 4 6 0

26,521

26 , 6 0 5

26,619

26 , 4 8 4

26,483

26,475

26,387

26 , 4 4 4

23,799
24,902
26,349

2 4 , 307
25, 536
26, 529

24,551
25,780
26,529

22 ,849
23,013
24, 104
25,197
24, 154
22 , 7 9 2
23,516
2 4 , 7 16
26,109
26,435

25,580

25,524

25,601

25,551

25, 5 2 0

25,655

25,699

25 , 6 4 0

25,596

25,441

25,235

24,991

25,568

22,918

22,812

22 ,797

22,918

23,051

23,188

23,376

23,462

23,637

23,809

23,949

24,043

22,842

25 , 5 7 5
124
23, 052

25,645
23,559
23,492

25,222
22,980
23,934

25,497
23,813
23,334

24,998
24,832
24,501

24,917
24,752
24,533

24,960
24,688
24,536

24,935
24,679
24,596

24,907
24,587
24,653

24,862
24,499
24,684

24,827
24,476
24,788

24,811
24,457
24 , 8 5 1

24,766
24,429
24,902

24,780
24,428
25 , 0 2 5

24,767
24,429
25 , 123

24,774
24,471
25,201

24,958
24,757
24,523

24, 901
2 4 , 588
24, 644

24,801
24,454
24,847

24,774
24,443
25,116

24,859
24,558
24,784

23,

NOTE: U n l e s s otherwise noted, these series c o n t a i n r e v i s i ons b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1983.




( J U L Y 1988)

97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.
48.

May

June

July

Aug.

Nov.

Oct.

Sept.

Dec.

I Q

E M P L O Y E E H O U R S IN N O N A G R I CULTU RAL E S T A B L I S H M E N T S
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF EMPLOYEE HOURS)

1954. . .
1955. . .
1956...
1957.. .
1958. ..
1959. . .
1960...
1961. . .
1962...
1963. . .
1964...
1965. . .
1966. . .
1967. . .
1968...
1969...
1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973. . .
1974...
1975. . .
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

100.48
101.24
106.88
107.71
104.90
106.43
110.00
107.72
109.91
113.23
114.80
120.96
126 .60
131.41

171.26

170.27

171.11

169.94

170.64

170.86

171.26

171.46

1983. . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986...
1987. . .
1988. ..

165.53
173.86
180.10
184.60
187.56

164.11
175.36
179.81
183.90
188.63

165.10
174.88
181.28
184.36
188.57

166 . 14
176.54
180.78
184.45
187.58

166.93
176.37
181.57
184.53
189.74

167.70
177.49
182.08
184.48
190.02

168.87
177.86
181.87
184.78
190.69

168.69
178.19
182.53
185.34
191 . 4 0

48C.

CHANGE IN

100.59
103. 11
106.67
108.22
102.80
107 . 6 5
109.78
107.82
112.02

100.13
103.2 1
107.38
107.63
101.83
108.57
110.32
107 . 6 5
112.58

99.67
104.41
107.12
107.65
102.04
108.94
110.03
108.27
112.80

99.69
104.58
107.39
107.56
102.14
109.42
109.89
108.91
112.90

99.45
104.80
1 0 6 . 10
107 .6 1
102.45
109 . 0 8
109 .89
109.29
112.94

99.26
104.98
107.39
107 . 6 4
103.01
108. 18
109.81
109 .70
113.22

99.36
105.62
107 . 5 3
107 . 19
104.03
107 . 8 4
109 . 2 4
109.24
113.57

99.79
105.89
108.08
106.06
104.07
107 .7 1
108.99
110.06
113.09

100.93
106.46
108.23
105 . 7 2
105.03
108.20
109.52
110.87
113.38

101.20
106 .8
108.5
105.5
105.4
109 .9
106.79
110.68
113.21

100.64
102.07
106.88
108.15
103.61
106.91
109.97
107.78
111.10

116.75
122.06

117.43
122 .11

117.47
122 .87

117.72
122.76

118.06
123. 13

118.31
123.62

118.31
123.88

118.72
124.60

119.67
125.36

130.70

130.61

130.55

130.92

131.23

131.43

131.77

132.34

132.07

137.62
139.91
137.97
141.16

137.34
141.86

137.84
142.06

137.95
142.87

138.33
142.93

138.56
143.53

138.09
143.25

138.63
143.92

134.34
138.41
144.89

137.31
138.02
144.96

133.02
136.42
140.20
136.78
139.80
146.00

120.60
126.16
130.98
133. 11
136.90
140.73
137.77
140.26
146 . 10

116.05
121.55
127.59
130.91
133.24
137.99
140.05
137.72
141.69

151.12
147 . 8 2
151.12
152.23
159.18
168.24

151.55
146.29
150.76
154.82
160.72
168.58

151.22
145 .31
150.56
154.79
162.33
169.93

149.09
145 . 3 7
149 . 7 0
155.49
164.12
166.36

151.73
145.76
151.37
156.56
164.32
169.50

151.58
145.31
151.16
157.17
165.35
170.51

151.43
145.59
151.69
157.75
165.78
170.68

151.33
147 . 13
151.62
158.07
166.00
170.66

151.47
147 .54
152.10
158.80
166.23
170.61
168.72
167.27

151.91
147 . 8 0
152.12
159.42
166.57
170.56
169.48
170.12

170.73
178.96
183.08
185.77

171.58
178.78
184.11
186.12

149.78
148.37
152.66
159 . 7 0
168.08
170.67
169.56
169.75
163.93
171.33
179.74
183.86
186.62

148.06
149.21
153.22
159 .60
168. 12
17 1.26
170.80
169.27
164.84
173.09
180.00
184.30
186.86

151.30
146.47
150.81
153.95
160.74
168.92
171.50
170.88
167.35
164.91
174.70
180.40
184.29
188.25

-13.1

1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. . .
1960. . .
1961...
1962. . .
1963. . .
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967. ..
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970...
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980...
1981 . . .
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985 . . .
1986...
1987 . . .
1988. . .

0.9
-9.0
-7.0
12. 1
0.5
11.0
-8.0
0.2
-10.3
3.6
4.3
4.0
-5.9
6.5
-6.8
1.8
8.0
4.5
-2.5
-1.9
16.4
-7.5
-3.1
0.9
3.7
3.3
-25 .6
5.1
5.5
0.7
2.0
4.6
2 .1

2.4
9 .3
-18.4
2 .4
1 .5
1.0
17.0
1 .8
20.4
7 .0
11.4
-6.3
11.8
1.8
0.5
-5.3
6.1
10.9
3.5
-11.7
-2 .8
22.4
12.2
2.5
-0.5
-6 .7
29.5
-9.8
10.9
-1.9
-4.5
7 . 1
9 .6

1954...
1955 . . .
1956 . . .
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962. . .
1963. . .
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970. . .
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988. . .

-5.5
3.8
2.4
1.0
-9 .4
6.3
7 4
-6.1
1.8
0.1
2.5
6.7
7.8
-0.2
2.0
4.2
-0.7
1.6
6.0
5 .3
-0.1
-9.0
6.6
5.8
2.6
1 .2
2 .5
1.7
-2.3
0.4
9.7
0.2
0.1
4.4
4.3

-4.1
7.8
-0.5
-1 .2
-10.0
8.7
0 6
3.9
4.9
1.0
3.2
4.9
7 .4
-1.1
1 .5
4.8
-1 .3
0.2
5.2
7 . 1
-0.6
-7.2
3.6

4.6

EMPLOYEE

-3.2
-4.6
-3.2
-3.9
12.0
-3.9
0. 1
7.3
1. 1
1.7
4.2
6 .6
-0.8
-0.6
6.3
2.5
4.5
1.7
5.8
-2.6
-7.7
-1.6
-0.2
12.7
10.0
-4.7
6. 1
-4.2
7 .5
-3.2
10.3
3.0
-0.4
-0.7

H O U R S I N N O N A G R I C U L T U RAL E S T A B L I S H M E N T S O V E R
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

-5.4

-5.4

0.2

-2.9

7.0
4.4
-0.6
0.7
-2.6
0.6
4.2
2.9
0. i
3.7
3.6

99.83
104.07
107 . 3 0
107 . 6 1
102.00
108.98
110.08
108.28
112.76
114.64
117 .54
122.58
128.83
130.90
134.40
139.23
139.22
138.28
143.11
149.18
150.80
145 .48
150.74
156.41
164.60
168.79
169.16
170.48
167.05
166 .92
176 .80
181.48
184.49
189. 11

99 .36
105 . 13
107.01
107 . 4 8
103.16
108.37
109.65
109.41
113.24
115.28
118.23
123.54
129.72
131 .85
135.84
140.21
137.31
138.38
144.02
150.06
151.41
146 .75
151.80
158.21
166 .00
170.65
168.20
170.00
165.63
169.43
178.34
182 .49
185 . 3 0
190.18

AVERAGE

100.64
106 .38
108.29
105 . 7 7
104.84
108.62
108.43
110.54
1 13.23
115.88
119.66

100.12
104.41
107.37
107 . 2 5
103.40
108.22
109.53
109.00
112.58
114.79
117.87

130.73
132.73
136.59
140.50
137.29
139.36
145.69
150.94
149 .92
148.46
152.67
159.57
167.59
170.83
169.95
169.71
164.44
172.00
179.51
184.09
186.53
192.99

129.22
131.60
135.02
139.48
138.46
138.43
143.63
149 .47
150.86
146.79
151.51
157.03
164.73
169.80
169.70
170.27
166.12
168.32
177.34
182.11
185.15
190. 14

FOR PERIOD

5.3
3.1
6.3
-11.9
0.5
-1.4
-2.7

14.6
6.7
1 .7
-3.8
11.6
5.6
6 .0

3.3
3.9
3 .7
-2.0
4.5
21.2
-26 .1

3.8
4.0
0.0
2 .6
-0.6
5.3
2.5
1. 1
-30.9
-1 .
8.
2.
1.
3.
3.
5.
1.
-0.
2.5
-25.7
-4.3
15.5
5.3
3.7

-5.0
3.9
4.2

3.1
-0.6
10.0

-1.8
-0.3
9.7

-3.9
7 .9
-0.4
-1.0
-9.8
8.8
-0.6
4.0
5.4
1.0
3.9

6. 1
-2 .4
2 .9

3.0
9 .0
-0.4

2.0
0.8
4.3

7.4
-1.0
1.8

-3.5
6.0
2 .8
-2 .4
-2.4
6.8
0.5
4.2
3.2
5 .1
3.4
2.4
3.6
2 .0
4.2

30.0
-3.3
0.6
-3.8
3.5
2.1
0.2
4.8
2.5
-0.4
5.5
22.5
-3.8
6.1
-1.2
7.0

-4.5
16.6
9.0
15.0
-15 .6
4.7
4.3
2 . 1
1 1 .4
0.8
0.6
-2.6
-4.5
-1.7
6.6
-1.6

-1.3
0.3
5.3
7.1
-0.5
-7.1
4.0

-4.2
2. 1
4.3
2.5
2 .2
0. 1
2.0

-1.3
4.1
1 .2
-1.3
7.7
-5.6
-2.3
1.3
2.4
2.3
2 .0
3.7
0.8
3.4
3.5
2.6
-10.9
-0.4
4.0
2. 1
-0.3
6.4
2.5

7.3
4.5
-0.5
0.9
-0.1
0.9

7.8
3.4
-5.9
-0.4
-3.7
6.5

2.2
0.2
0.8
-7.2
-3.5
7.6

-17.0

31.1

-2.3
2 .1
15.6
0.3
6 .8
-9.5
-0.9

1.2
7.6
1.6
-4.9
12 .6
-3.7
-6.1

-2.9
0.2
2.5
4.2
-3.1
7 .1
2.4

3.1
-1.0
1.2
5.4
-1.5

-13.5
0.6
3 .7
-3.7
0.0

1.1

0.4

7.2
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
1.4
1 .7
-3.6
1 .0
7 .1
1 .7
-15.7
0.5
-6.6
5.6
14.1
-22 .5
-6.5
-7 .9
-6.4
7.8
12.0
-3.3

0.4
7 .7
1.9
3.5
6 .7
5.9
-6.3
3.4
0.5
3.0
23.4
3.3
14.2
8.6
1.5
25.2
-7.4
5 .1
1.0
5.9

2.6
-1.1
9.2
2.9
4.5
1.7
-2.7
2 .0
5.2
2 .7
-1.2
-3.6
-1.7
4.8
7.8
7 .4
-3.8
1.6
-5.6
5.7

3.5
3.7
-0.4
.8
.0
.2
.5
- .0
- .3
.8
- .2
.3
.3
.5
3.2
1 .2
-6.4
2.8
-3.3
8.7

-1.1
5.4

7 .9
3.4

2 .5
-1.4

3.0
0.7
2.6
4.9
3.5
3.1
3. 1
4.4
-4.2
4.8
5 .8
1. 1
-0.8
13.5
-0.6
2.5
1.6
-0.1
6.4
1 .4
-2.9
-1.3
2.2
4.4

-6. 1
9.0

14.7
-1 .4

1 .8
4.4

4.3

4.6

4.2
7 .7
-5 .6
6.5
-4.9
3 2
2 .8
0.5
2.9
2.3
4.9
3.0
2.0
2.8
2.1
-4.9
-0.2
4.9
-0.2
1.3
6 .2
1.1

5.8
3.2
-6.9
8.1
0.1

9 .0
4.0
0.8
-1.0
-12 .9
7 . 1
4.5
-0.7
0.3
4.2
9. 1
-3.3
6 .9
13.0

2.9

3.0

1.8

1 .4

1.4

3.8
3.7

3.5
4.0

AVE RAGE

ENT)

-1.4
8.0
1 .9
-0.3
-11.2
8.3
1 2
-0.3
10.1
4.0
9.5
3.9
5.7
-2.6
4.0
3.2
-0.2
-0.1
4.9
6 .1
-5.3
-6.5
-3.7

-4.6
10.4
0. 1
-3.1
-4.2
8.9
0 4
1.7
5 .3
4.5
3.1
4.1
2 .7
0.7

-3.5
5.8
2 .7
-2.4
-2.5
6.7
0 4
4. 1
3.2
5.1
3.4
2.3
3.5
1.9

-2.7
6.3
-4.7
-0. 1
2.5
1.9
1 6
6.2
1.3
2.7
2 .2
3.4
3.5
2 .7

-1.6
2 .2
1.0
0.0
3.9
-2.8
0 8
5 .4
1.5
1.8
2.9
2.5
4.0
2.6

4.6
-2.5
2 .9
3.1
3.5
0.5
-1.4
1.6

3.1
-4.2
2.1
4.2
2.5
1.0
0.0
1.6

3.2
-2 .2
0.4
1. 1
2.9
6.4
0.6
5.4

2 .8
-1.5
0.9
2 .8
2 .2
-1.1
3.8
0.7

-1.3
4.0
0.5
-1 .4
7.6
-5.7
-2 3
1 .2
2.4
2 .3
2 .0
3.7
0.8
3 .4
3.5
2.5
-12.1
-0.4
3.8
2.1
-0.3
6.3
2.5

13.0
-4.4
-3.9
-3.0
5.1
1.5
6.3
1.5
-0.3
0.0
5.8

9.3
2 .2
-6 .2
0.9
-3.3

1.4
-5.9
-0.6
-3.7

4.1
10.8
-5.9
3.1
-2.7

4.2
2.8
-1 .4
1 .9
-3.9

2.1
0.2
0.7
-8.1
-3.5

-0.3
4.8
-2 .6
-3.7

0.0
2 .9
-3.9
-4.2

2.3
4.0
1 .4
2.4
2 .2

6.1
1.8
0.3
3.1
3.9

3.0
2.4
0.7
6 .8

4.2
2.1
1.8
3.5

3.4
2 .2
2.8
-3.2

2.1
5.0
2 .9
4.4

3.5
2 .9
2 .8
3 .4

4.3
0.6
2 .4
4.7
5.8
2 .8
3 .8
1.7
-0.4
-5.0
3.4
5 .9

-4.0
3.4
2.8

4.7
1.5
5. 1
5.5
-0.5
5 .8
2.4
2 .8
2 .4
11.3

6.8
.7
.9
- .7
.7
.7
- .8
. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
6.8
6.7
3.2
2 .4
2.5
-0.5
2.5
6 .1
4.7
3.6
-7.7
5.8

6.3

5.6

0,4
-0.7
-0.2
0.1
0.8
6.7
1.5
0.0
2.7
4.6

4.8
-6.0
1.1
-3.2
6.7
3.8
2 .7
0.8
4.1

4.1
2 .7
0.9
1.4
-2.9
-3.7
6.1
3.2
3.1
2 .5
1.6

1.9
4.6
1.5
4.1
-3.4
-0.8
5 .8
2.9
2 .2
2 .8
5.2

-8.7
4.6
3.0
2.0
4.6
1 .5
5.0
4.9
-0.6
5.6
2 .3
2 .7
2 .4
10.5

-10.3
9.3
0.3
-0.6

-2.0
-7.6

2 .9
4.3
-11.2
2 .4
5.4
3.0
1.1
3. 1
1.7

-0.3
5 .7
1 .9
-2.6
0.3
4.6
-2.5
3.8
2.5
2 .4
4.3
4.6
3.9
1 .7
2.9
2.8
-1 .2
2.0
4.2
3.8
-1.7
1.0
2 .9
4.4
5.5
2 .4
-0. 1
-0.3
-1.9
5.2
4 .1
2.5
1.4
4.0

FOR P E R I O D

3.5
3.1
-2.3
6.0
-4.5
2 1
3.1
1.5
2.3
2 .4
3.7
2.6
2 .7
3.5
2.5
-6.2
0. 1
3.8
1.4
0.0
5.4

3.8
-1.4
-4.3
9.4
8.8

-0.5
0.5
-3.8
7 .8
6 .6
3.0
1.1
3.4
-1.8
1.9
9.4
4.7

2.2

-2.7

7.7
4.6
3.9
-5.9
5.5
8.5
-7.6
5.5
-1.2
1.0
8.0
7.6
3.7
2.5
2 .3
0.8
11.5
5.8
3.5
3.4
-8.3
4.6
3.0

7.5
-0.6
-1.9
-1.4
5.8
-0 5
4.0
3.3
4.1
2.9
3.3
3.2
1.8
4.0
3.6
-3.0
1.8
2.8
3.0
2.6
-0.3

6 .5
1.3
-0.2
-10.2
7 .8
2 7
-0.8
5.6
1.7
5.1
5.2
7.0
-1.3
2.5
4. 1
-0.7
0.6
5.4

4.5
3.9
-6.0
5.5
8. 1
8 7
5.4
-1 .3
1 .0
8.0
7 .6
3.7
2.3
2.3
0.8
10.6
5.5
3.4

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1984. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month
changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages
of the centered changes.




Annual

1- M O N T H S P A N S

8.3
-6.3
-10.8
10.8
6.1
-1.9
6.2

(

IV Q

E 10

100.86
101.87
107.09
108.51
103. 14
106.64
110.14
107.81
111.36
113.40
116.59
121.64

1954...

III Q

ll Q

-0.
5.
1.
-2 .
0.
3.
-1 .
2.
2.
2.0
4.3
4.7
4.0
1.4
3.1
2 .4
-1.8
2 . 1
4.2
3.5
-1 .8
0.8
2 . 1
4.5
5.5
1.9
-0.3
-1.3
-1.9
4.9
4.2
2.4
1.5
3.4

(JULY 1988)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.
41 .

1954...
1955 . ..
1 9 5 6 . ..
1 9 5 8 . ..
1959...
1960. . .
196 1 ...
1962. ..
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1 9 6 6 . ..
1967. ..
1 9 6 8 . ..
1969. ..
1970...
1971...
1 9 7 2 . ..
1973. ..
1974. ..
1975. ..
1976...
1977. ..
1978. . .
1 9 7 9 . ..
1980...
1981. . .
1982 . . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986.. .
1987 . . .
1988. ..

May

EMPLOYEES

June

July

Aug.

Oct.

Sept.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

II Q

48,695
50,938
52 ,202

49 , 0 5 7
51 , 5 0 7
52,751

O N N O N A G R I CU LTU R A L P A Y R O L L S 1
(THOUSANDS )

III Q

AVERAGE

IV Q

FOR PERIOD

51 , 8 8 0

52 , 096

52 , 141

5 2 , 302

52 , 3 8 7

50,705
52,454

50,823
51,764

50,905
52,396

51 , 0 8 5
52,446

51,308
52,667

51,491
52,722

51,721
52,865

49 , 5 8 4
52, 0 3 9

48,884
50,408
52,381

52,002
52,410
54 , 184
53,524
54,703
55,927
57,281
59,419

51 , 4 4 8
52,558

51,131
52 , 8 6 3

50,787
53 , 190

50,760
53,382

50,822
53,603

50,915
53,683

51,118
53,230

51,359
53,265

51,379
53,203

51,831
53,503

51,968
54,033

51,527
52,610

50,790
53,392

53 , 3 7 3
54,996
56 , 0 3 9
57,621
59,710

53 , 4 6 2
55,109
56 , 157
57 , 6 8 6
59,921

53 , 4 8 5
55,384
56 , 398
57 , 8 4 6
0,080

53,664
55,514
56,534
57,974
60,389

53,922
55 , 5 6 3
56,571
58, 128
60,590

54,052
55 , 6 6 3
56,705
58,309
60,868

54,232
55 , 7 9 6
56,832
58,510
61,072

54,303
55, 8 6 0
56 , 9 7 1
58,777
61,333

54,375
55,919
57,148
58,658
61,538

54,636
55 , 9 4 3
57,125
59 , 0 8 0
61,859

54,739
55,915
57,251
59 , 3 2 0
62,209

53, 4 5 3
54,936
56,041
57,529
59,683

53 , 6 9 0
55,487
56,501
57 , 9 8 3
60,353

65,240

65,224

65,305

5,373

65,478

65,642

65,816

65,933

66,074

66 , 0 9 1

66,570

66,767

65,256

9, 9 8 0
1,283
0,969
3,079

70,197
70,998
71,129
73,346

70,478
70,888
7 1 , 136
73,639

70,629
70,927
71,169
73,576

70,742
70,750
71 , 168
73 , 9 0 8

70,800
70,815
71,499
74, 107

70,957
70,383
71,485
74,537

70,921
70,264
71,723
74,904

1,119
0,661
1,977
5 , 164

69,558
7 1 ,208
70,736
72,583

65 , 4 9 8
67,573
70,218
7 1,056
71,078
73,355

51,131
53 ,393
54,166
54,196
55,773
56 , 8 3 6
58,532
61,091
64,280
65,941
68,167
70,724
70,831
71,279
73,864

8,239

7 8 , 381

78,443

78,492

78,511

78,542

78,599

78,234

7,531

78,128

78,354

78,515

• 51,726
53 , 5 8 0
53,799
54,583
55,926
57,175
59 , 0 1 9
61,869
64,832
66 , 4 7 6
68,852
70,999
70,436
71,728
74,868
77,769
78,121

81,615
86,064
89,356
90,747
91,175
90,028
89,244
93,719
97,017

79,188
81 , 9 8 4
86,396
89 ,67 1
90,269
91,151
90 , 0 0 6
89,558
94,041
97 , 2 9 3

82,392
86 , 8 3 3
89 , 9 8 5
89,931
91 , 3 2 8
89,769
89,970
94,433
97, 4 2 8

79,469
82 , 7 4 3
87 , 0 6 0
90,088
89,670
91,467
89 , 4 3 5
90,404
94,752
97 , 6 0 6

82,954
87,319
90, 148
89,933
91 , 4 1 5
89 , 2 7 2
90,065
94,988
97,811

79,857
83 , 4 6 0
87,470
90, 166
90,058
91 , 3 5 4
89 , 122
91,214
95,324
98 , 0 4 0

80,846
84 , 8 7 2
89 , 0 2 4
90,881
91 ,000
90,349
88,814
93,000
96,575
98,883
101 , 0 2 4

81,997
86 , 4 3 1
89,671
90,316
91,218
89,934
89,591
94 , 064
97, 2 4 6
99, 189
101 ,841

83,052
87,28
90,13
89 ,88
91,41
89,27
90,56
95,02
97,819
99 , 6 7 6
102 , 6 6 9

80,093
83,977
88,185
90,467
90,584
91,010
88,717
91,786
95,868
98,420
100,347
103,683

20,069
22,628
27 , 4 4 7
30,301
28,034
30,376
32, 9 3 0
33,119
35,032
37,087
40,895
49,117

19 , 9 9 6
23 ,767
28,151
29,686
28,351
31 , 0 9 3
33,044
33,308
35,853
38,482
42 , 143
51,587

71,324
85,151
92 , 9 8 0
91,672

74,226
88, 162
91 , 2 7 7
92 , 85

9 ,297
6 9 , 5 7 5 69, 8 0 3
71,363
71,201
1,059
70,766
0,752
70,689
72,850
72,542
2,357
5,521
8 , 0 2 0 7 8 , 1 8 1 7 8 , 184
7,153
78,828
78,614
8,317
8 0 , 7 8 3 81 , 2 2 8
80,527
8 4 , 4 7 8 8 4 , 8 0 0 85 , 3 3 9
88,711
89,406
88,955
90,784
90,970
90,889
90,987
90,927
91 , 0 8 5
90,264
90,391
90,391
88 , 8 0 7
88,919
88,715
9 2 , 5 6 3 93 , 0 7 2 9 3 , 3 5 9
96,371
96 , 5 0 1 96 , 8 5 2
98,887
98,788
1 0 0 , 7 9 5 101 , 0 1 6 1 0 1 , 2 6 0

72.

1 0 1 , 6 1 5 1 0 1 , 8 2 9 102 , 0 7 8

COMMERCIAL AND INE USTRIAL LOANS

102 , 4 3 0 1 0 2 , 6 7 2 102 , 9 0 6

84,012
83,659
87 , 7 8 8 8 8 , 2 3 3
90,356
90,449
90,583
90,350
9 1 , 2 5 9 91 , 0 2 0
88,836
88,67 1
91,771
91,457
95,936
95,587
98 , 4 3 2
98 ,206
1 0 0 , 120 1 0 0 , 3 4 9
103,371 103,678

80,310
84,260
88,534
90 , 5 9 5
90,818
90,750
88,644
92 , 1 3 1
96 , 0 8 2
98,623
100,571
104,001

Annual

48,990
50,641
52,369
52,853
51,324
53,268
54,189
53,999
55,549
56 , 6 5 3
58,283
60,765
63,901
65,803
67,897
70,384
70,880
71,214
73,675
76,790
78,265
76, 9 4 5
79,382
82,471
86 , 6 9 7
89,823
90,406
91,156
89,566
90,200
94,496
97,519
99 , 5 2 5
102 , 3 1 0

OUTSTANDING IN CURRENT DOLLARS2

(M

1954. . .
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961. ..
1 9 6 2 . ..
1963. . .
1964...
1965...
1966. ..
1967...
1968...
1 9 6 9 . ..
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973. . .
1974. . .
1 9 7 5 . ..
1976...
1977 . . .
1978...
1979...
1980. . .
1981
1982. . .
1983. ..
1984. . .
1985. ..
1986 . . .
1 9 8 7 . ..
1988. ..

21,000
20,529
24,515
28,695
29,171
28,567
31,433
33,582
36,039
38,931
43,562
53 , 195
61,876
67 , 2 5 4
77 ,048

20,651
22 , 2 4 4
27 , 145
0,245
8,039
0,026
2 ,993

19 , 8 0 4
22, 6 6 4
27 , 4 1 8
30,285
27 , 9 4 1
30,456
32 , 8 4 0

19,753
22,977
27,778
30,374
2 8 , 122
30,646
32 ,956

19,718
23,421
27,858
29,969
28,215
30,915
32,996

19,955
23,771
28,199
29 , 5 7 3
28,342
31,076
33,113

20,31424,110
28,395
29,517
28,496
31,288
33,018

21 ,033
20,712
24,872
28,866
28,911
28,657
31,799
33 , 0 2 5

6,740
0,137

36,872
40,428

37 , 0 4 7
40,839

37 ,82 1
41,625
50,812

38,57.9
42,068
51,650

39 , 0 4 5
42,737
52,300

36,139
39 , 109
44,581

64 ,682
69,598
83,502

65 ,083
70,294
83,909

64,862
71,359
85,141

37 , 341
41,418
5 0 , 141
59,950
65,155
72,318
86,404

20,809
21,420
26,393
29,729
28,267
29,569
32 , 6 3 2
33 , 0 1 8
34,300
36,608
39,858
47 , 0 4 3

62,460
67,467
7 7, 9 9 4
89 , 9 2 9
91,491

69,181
82,304
91 , 8 8 0
91 , 0 8 6

21,064
20,692

21,036
20,916

20,967
2 1 ,049

20,811
21 , 4 1 6

20,650
2 1, 7 9 6

28,720
28,835
28,583
31,870

29,182
28,728
28,820
32 , 0 9 3

29,503
28,554
29,092
32 ,293

29, 6 5 0
28,168
29,573
32,591

30,033
28 ,079
30,042
33,011

3 6 , 126
39,195
44,618

36,251
39,201

36,458
39,554

36 , 6 2 6
39,882

62 , 4 0 4
67,415
77,843

63,100
67,732
79,091

63,598
68,877
81,132

63 , 9 9 8
69 ,067
82 , 2 7 7

91,625
85,260
98 , 0 3 4

86,195
0 0 , 124

90,706
88,268
105 , 166
126,537
131,397
122,018
128 , 9 9 0

91,627
89,951
88,800
88,429
106 , 5 8 1 1 0 8 , 5 0 5
130,706 133,304
130,713
121,328 21,083
128 , 8 6 0 3 0 , 2 14

139,605
1 2 5 , 3 4 9 125 , 7 5 8 2 3 , 4 9 0
1 2 4 , 4 5 0 125 , 8 2 4 2 6 , 1 7 9

91,662
90,891
87 , 3 4 2 87 , 9 0 6
1 0 1 , 7 6 8 103, 0 7 4
125,111
133,750
120,789 121,069
1 2 6 , 9 2 5 127 , 7 4 0

155,975 158,341 160,335
193,068 197,288 200,406

165,793 168,229 171,623
2 0 0 , 5 8 3 1 9 8 , 7 5 6 202, 4 5 4

259,934 261,328

266,688 271,022 272,899

79,017 183,790
01,732 203,417
2 3 8 847
273,160 273,540 274,885

279,828 289,511

296,639 303,246

312,052

3 1 4 , 6 2 8 3 1 6 , 1 1 3 319 , 3 8 7

351,158 349,913
3 6 8 , 2 1 3 365 , 3 9 5

345,217 346,954 346 , 2 9 8
365 , 6 9 0 365 , 2 2 7 3 6 4 , 6 3 5

84,478
94,279

254,693
268,553
274,768
330,698
353,832
369 ,837

93,437
88,593
08 , 4 5 8
20,710
30,848

175,320
200,910

3 4 5 , 6 7 9 349 , 0 6 0 3 4 7 , 7 9 8
3 6 0 , 3 2 4 357 ,47 0 3 5 9 , 3 2 4

66,161 67,068
74,374 75,150
88 , 0 7 0 8 9 , 0 5 9
91 , 0 8 2
91 , 0 6 9
91, 7 8 8
92,301
92,465
92 , 1 11
90,502
91 , 4 0 8
109 , 6 6 4 1 1 0 , 8 7 7 111 , 7 6 4
65 , 6 4 4
73,153
87,358

97 , 4 7 9

103,336

107 , 8 4 8

110,

68

1 2 1 , 7 7 0 123,317 124,225
132 , 174 1 3 3 , 2 7 2 1 3 4 , 3 7 2

124,866
125 , 4 8 4

133,904
121,292
127 , 8 8 5

129,479
121 , 0 4 0
129,974

126,
123,
133,

58
04
73

183,394
209 ,253
244,824
270,235
263,187
326 , 0 3 2

158,217
196,921
212,694
258,652
268,862
281,369
333,903
351 ,634
367,815

168,548
200,598

179,376
202,020

184 , 7 4 5
208,331

27 0 , 2 0 3
263,056
303,979
338,280
346,156
365,184

273,862
262,442
316,709
3 3 7 , 7 05
347 , 5 1 2
359,039

2 6 9, 9 3 0
264,128
324,989
345 , 0 8 2
353,523
364,465

186 , 4 4 3
211,014
247 ,853
264,699
267,368
326 , 6 3 0
348,595
349 , 8 1 7 351 , 4 8 5 3 5 9 , 2 6 8
362 , 4 9 2 3 6 2 , 9 0 9 3 6 7 , 9 9 4

184,399
204,727
241 ,377
274,856
261,829
322 ,304

101. C O M M E R C I A L A N D I N D U S T R I A L L O A N S O U T S T A N D I t\G IN 1 9 8 2 D O L L A R S 3
( M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
1954. . .
1955 . . .
1956. ..
957. ..
958. . .
959. ..
960...
9 6 1 . ..
962...
963. ..
964. . .

966. ..
967 . . .
9 6 8 . ..
1969. . .
1972...
1 9 7 3 ...
1974...
1975. ..
1976...
1977 . . .
1978. . .
1 9 7 9 . ..
1980...
1981 . . .
1982...
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986. ..
1987...
1988...

65 , 9 8 0 66 , 4 0 6
64,942
65,235
76 , 5 2 0
76,246
85,577
85,503
85 , 5 4 3 8 4 , 5 5 9
8 3 , 2 4 3 83 , 2 9 0
91 ,886
93, 161
95,761
95,855
97,858 98,237
105 , 3 4 8 105 , 9 4 0
113,088
126 , 5 3 8 129 , 2 0 1
149 , 3 8 6 1 5 0 , 4 7 9

66,321
66 168
78,515
86,955
8 3 , 7 13
83,981

217,500
231,212
232 ,644
244,065
209 ,947
198, 148
200,975
211, 4 0 3
227 , 029
222 ,051
260,455
267 ,246
271,151
323,055
345,288

65,388
67,983
80,630
88,352
82 , 0 8 2
85 , 9 0 3

65,325
68,717
81 , 7 0 0
89 , 2 0 3
82 , 0 7 9
87,543

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

62,486

62,591

63,127

64,707

66,236

65,530

63,343

63,475

83 , 0 3 0
89 , 2 5 9
81,962
87 , 4 9 5

83,312
89 , 0 9 2
81,677
89 , 0 2 8

83,853
89 , 6 3 9
82,206
89 , 3 0 3

8 4 , 095
88,728
82,740
90,370

84,847
87 , 2 7 5
82,848
91,130

85,159
86 , 8 3 4
83 , 3 0 1
91,752

77,094
86 , 0 1 2
84,605
83,505
92,757

80,637
88,395
82,543
85,984
94,988

83,398
89 , 3 3 0
81 , 9 4 8
88,609
96,158

84,700
87,612
82 , 9 6 3
91,084
96 , 2 8 9

97 , 4 0 3 97, 5 9 4 9 7 , 7 1 8
1 0 3 , 8 3 9 1 0 4 , 7 2 6 105 , 193
1 1 0 , 5 5 7 112 , 4 2 0 1 1 4 , 1 3 6

98,300
105 , 8 6 4

100,478
107 , 3 5 1

102,082
108 , 2 9 8

135,088
156 , 4 0 8
178,219
187 , 4 5 9
215,199

140,034
162 , 9 6 5
180,151
192 , 6 6 7
221 ,026

104,585
112,371
122, 8 0 3
146 , 0 2 0
169 , 177
183,272
199 , 4 1 1
226 ,743

64,646
69 , 6 2 2
81 , 4 5 7
87,837
83 , 0 1 5
87 , 2 9 5
95 ,048
96,888
101,361
108 ,47 1
118,266
137,592
159,838
178,717
190,859
2 17 , 4 1 0
223,534
221,814
232,805
240 ,061
226,735
200,560
199 , 0 6 3
219,216
224,946
232 ,642
268,109
261 ,381
295 ,872
328,399
349 , 151
354,264

97 , 1 5 6
97, 4 0 0
96,806
1 0 1 , 5 5 1 102 , 4 2 4 102 , 2 7 0
07 , 4 4 5 108 , 2 9 4 109 , 155

131 , 9 3 7
152,536

1 3 3 , 3 7 2 1 3 5 , 8 5 0 136 , 0 4 3
154,157 156,256 158,811

3 7 , 0 5 2 1 4 0 , 0 9 6 142 , 9 5 4
6 0 , 6 3 3 163 , 3 0 7 1 6 4 , 9 5 5
180,641
89 , 8 1 3 1 9 3 , 3 3 6 1 9 4 , 8 5 2
17 , 5 3 9 2 2 1 , 4 2 3 2 2 4 , 1 1 7

144,418
167 ,7 10
182,018
197,099
225,900

169 , 5 0 5
183,458
199,858
226 , 5 0 4

147,290
170,315
184,341
201,277
2 2 7, 8 2 6

129,225
150,800
173,227
183 , 9 0 0
206 ,669

221,446
228,432
238,469
219,625
197 , 2 0 4
200,329

220,381
232, 2 4 4
245,848
215 ,734
195,324
200,380

225 ,691
236,855
243,149
212,373
196,721
201 ,485

226 ,819
238,445
243 ,439
211,985
198,898
202,541

2 2 4 , 114
235,590
2 4 4 , 106
211,466
198 , 7 6 0
202,979

218,371
229,515
232,638
243,967
208,343
197,721

224,896
220,472
237,186
272,722
258,227
304,540
329 ,2 16
351,521

2 2 7 , 182
221 ,829
241 ,748
274,885
257 ,595
308,885
329 ,755
349 , 8 9 7

224,603
220,611
244,062
2/4,307
256 , 193
311,706
331 , 3 3 7
350,870
348 , 2 15

222,027
224,520
247 ,798
269 ,427
257 , 7 7 4
314,399
334,337
352 , 189
348 , 2 8 1

223,553
224,962
250,863
263,382
261,357
315 , 5 8 5
336,482
360,349
353,161

211 ,425
227 ,557
221 ,343
259,431
267 ,880
272,273
323 ,344
345 , 6 7 1
364,542

219,885
230,700
232,684
242 ,798
205 ,817
196 , 8 4 7
203,430
211 , 5 2 4
229 ,035
218,223
2 6 2, 3 7 8
268,376
278,644
327,154
348,866

222,244
233,413
240,896
237 ,503
199 , 3 2 2
195,570
203,797
215 , 5 9 6
228,454
219,981
267 ,759
264,546
285,230
326,730
346,603

2 2 2 , 5 4 7 222 ,338
2 3 1 , 6 2 7 2 3 1 , 134
2 4 1 , 5 2 7 243 , 340
226 ,547
199 , 127 199 , 3 7 6
1 9 5 , 9 2 0 198 , 4 4 6
205,797 207,924
217,070 220,029
225 ,092 228 ,246
2 2 5 , 106 2 2 8 , 9 4 9
27 1 , 5 6 5 2 7 2 , 8 9 9
2 5 9 , 3 9 0 2 5 9 ,5 04
291 , 303 3 0 0 , 0 5 0
328,435 326,619
3 4 6 , 9 5 4 346 , 6 4 5
'

221,072
237,374
242 ,048
222 ,680
196 , 9 6 1
197 , 9 4 2
208,717
221 ,364
222 ,492
231,984
272 , 072
258,345
301 , 9 4 6
327 ,839
347 ,766

This series contains revisions beginning with 1983. This : ries contains revisions beginning with 1984. This
series contains revisions beginning with 1945.




172,722
201,967
228 , 153
2 6 8 , 162
264,622
306,762
338,742
349,707
364,126

62,437

96,696
96,829
97, 2 5 6
9 9 , 7 4 4 1 0 0 , 4 9 2 101 , 197
1 0 7 , 2 5 2 107 , 4 0 3 107 , 3 9 9

186 , 9 9 7 186 , 9 6 8 1 8 8 , 4 1 2
2 13 , 3 5 4 215 , 124 2 17 , 120

70,549
83,403
91,517
91,608
88,274
104,858
128,494
132,328
122 ,576
129,154

6 5 , 106

96,182
98,804
106 , 3 0 5

1 8 4 , 2 3 4 1 8 3 , 5 6 5 183 , 9 0 0
205 , 3 0 5 206 , 2 4 0 2 0 8 , 4 6 3
217,727
226 ,632
232,586
245 ,038
209 , 2 6 4
198, 169
202,332
211 ,348
226,606
223,756
255 ,459
268,017
267 ,024
319,824
342 , 8 6 0

65,878
66, 362
79,581
87,630
83 , 4 6 8
84,506

20,477
22,132
26 ,7 16
29,646
28,391
29 , 9 2 4
32 , 6 0 1
33,118
34,730
37,079
40,501
48,082

199,275
196,6 5

196,496
199,550

223,087
225 ,541
236, 9 6 3
243 ,565
211 , 9 4 1
198,126
202,335

217,5 5
227 ,2 4
224,6 9
270,7 1
261,1 7
292 , 1 4
327,2 1
346 , 7 3 4
356,286

224,481
221,598
236 ,973
273 ,226
258,056
305 , 124
328,937
349 , 7 2 8
346 , 3 4 2

223 ,394
223 ,364
247 , 5 7 4
269, 0 3 9
258,441
313 , 8 9 7
334,052
354 ,469
349,886

222,128
222 ,376 2 2 0 , 9 6 6
232 ,058 232 ,683
2 4 1 , 9 2 1 242 , 122

(JULY 1988)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.
Mar.
A p r . May
July
June
i 1. CHANGE IN B U S I N E S S AND C O N S U M E R CREDIT
'

A u g . Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.Q
I

NT)

'

II Q

III

Q

IV Q

Annual

OUTSTANDING1
AVEB AGE FOR PERIOD

1954...
1955...
1956. . .
1957...
1958...

-2.0
16.2
13.7
8.5
1.4

2.3
16.3
12.4
7.1
0.0

-1.3
22.1
19.8
10.7
1.0

-0.5
18.2
15.2
8.5
0.9

-2 .9
21.7
14.4
8.1
0.7

-1.2
22.6
10.8
8.7
3.0

2.9
20.3
10.0
8.8
5.3

-15.1
21.5
10.8
6.1
4.1

3.2
19.3
10.5
7.1
9.7

4.3
9.9
7.7
2.1
8.2

10.5
15.2
11.2
1.9
10.4

13.0
8.8
4.7
12.5

1960. ..
196 1. ..
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966. ..
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970. . .
197 1. . .
1 9 7 2 . ..
1973...
1974. ..
1975. ..
1976. ..
1977 ...
1978...
1979. ..
1980...
1981...
1982 ...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

10.2
7.3
8.9
11.7
10.6
13.2
...
4.3
4.2
15.4
3.0
14.5
6.9
23.6
12.6
0.8
5.6
12.5
12.4
17 .5
19.7
7.2
12.0
9.9
13.3
13.6
12.4

12.9
5.4
11.1
12.4
9.5
14.6
11.4
5.7
5.0
12.9
8.0
10.2
10.5
23.6
1.7
.6
.7
1.7
1 .3
1.1
1 .3
.0
8.1
4.5
18.7
10.9
5.6

11.6
5.5
9.9
10.4
13.4
12.3

10.4
4.2
12.2
13.4
10.7
12.7

9.3
5.0
12.2
12.9
11.9
13.6

11.1
6 .2
11.8
11.7
10.0
10.4

6.2
6.2
11.8
13.1

5.7
8.0
12.2
12.7

8.0
9.0
11.4
12.9

6.3
7.9
13.3
14.5

8.1
10.1
13.1
14.7

5.3
10.4
10.9
12.4

10.5

12.6

12.8

9.6

10.9

10.5

4.1
11.2
10.1
5.1
8.6
18.4
17.5
9.0
-2.1
7.9
15.1
18.5
12.3
6.9
3.5
2.5
6.5
20.5

4.1
11.2
14.7
1.6
5.6
15.5
15.4
18.5
-0.4
5.6
15.4
15.5
17.8
1.3
9 .4
6.2
0.6
18.0

4.2
7.8
10.6
3.8
10.7
13.6
16.6
13.9
-1.5
10.3
15.0
18.3
15.2
-4.2
10.9
5.2
-0.2
21.5

8.2
7.1
10.3
6 .3
7 .5
14.7
16.4
8.9
-0.5
11.7
16.7
17.4
15.0
-0.1
8.4
1 .9
10.1
22 .6

6.4

5.2

6.7

6.6

9.2

10.5

6.4
5.9
8.6
11.7
14.7
15.0
6.4
9.2
13.1
14.1
14.3
-0.4

8.9
6.4
16.0
14.7
15.0
11.3
4.1
9.0
17.1
13.9
13.6
6.2

9.9
7.2
16.1
11.9
8.0
12.2
4.5
10.4
14.5
12.0
14.7
7.6

8.0
-0.3
7.0
18.1
11.3
4.1
7.5
13.0
14.9
13.0
10.9
7.7

7.3
2.0
11.5
16.1
10.6
5.4
6.0
13.7
15.9
14.7
6.1
9.3

5.0
7.9
10.1
14.4
.3
.9
.3
1 .4
1 .4
1.8
.7
.1

-2.7
9.1
12.7

0.4
11.8
10.9

1.3
8.7
11.5

-5.0
9.7
13.7

-4.3
11.8
12.6

- .0
1.1
.1

4.7

2.2

7.7

3.6

6.4
1.6

6.9
4.1

3.7
8.9

8.6
9.1

4.7
5.8

13.3
11.4

4.7
6.8
12.8
5.4
11.1
11.9
21.6
11.8
0.8
7 .7
14.1
14.4
14.3
12.6
5.6
7.5
7 .0
17.5
12.8
7.6
3.7

-1.5
20.8
13.5
8.4
1.5
16.1
10.3
5.1
12. 1
12.7
10.9
12.2
7 .5
5.5
8.7
11.9
3.9
7 .9
14.6
16.1
13.8
-0.8
9.2
15.7
17.1
16.0
-1.0
9.6
4.4
3.5
20.7
7.9
4.5
6.4

-0.09
2.41
5 .22
3.15
-3.15
1.29
3.22
0.37
1.91
1.06
0.62
11.30
10.02
7.07
2.65

-1.54
3.52
5 .54
3.40
-2.60
4.89
3.67
-0.62
2.41
1.96
3.75
8.62
9 .69
6.33
7 .46

8.73
3.34

-0.3
18.2
15.3
8.8
0.8
12.1
11 .6
6.1
10.0
11.5
11.2
13.4

-3.0
20.4
10.4
7.3
6 .4
15.2
6.6
7 .7
11.8
12.9
11.7
12.0
6.6
6.1
9.5
8.4
6.5
13.6
12.8
12.6
12.8
5.0
9.5
14.9
13.3
14.2
4.5
8.1
-0.3
9.9
11.7
8.2
5.7
4.9

12 '.7
9 .2
2.9
10.4
11.4
6.6
9.5
12 .4
13.9
10.7
10.3
4.3
8.8
11.2
6.8
3.2
9 .5
16.2
3 .8
7 .6
13.7
15.4
13.2
8.2
8.4
3.6
-6.1
12.5
11.8
11.6
8.9
8.8

18.0
12.1
6.9
4.8
13.7
8.8
7.1
11.6
12.7
11.1
12.0
6.3
9.0
10.0
4.7
10.5
13.9
15.0
10.5
3.1
10.0
15.0
14.5
13.2
6.1
6.7
1 .4
8.2
15.4
10.1
6.6
5 .9

1988. ..
112. N E T C H A N G E I N B U S I N E S S L O A N S 2
(ANNUAL RATE, f
L,fl.RO >

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1970...
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976
1977 ...
1978. . .

-6.46
-1.50
...
26.02
26.44
9.35
-10.75
2.70
9 .43

1980...
1981 ...
1982...
1983...
1984. . .
1985...

79.50
24.02
82.08
46.25
5.00
48.82

-0.83
1.60
6.22
3.85
-2.09
3.26
2.40
-0.38
2.57
2 .48

-1.87
4.40
6.19
1 .76
-4.63
5.77
3.58
-0.71
1.78
2 .02

-1 .93
4.56
4.21
4.60
-1.07
5.63
5.04
-0.7 8
2.88
1.37

0.01
5.38
4.15
2.54
-0.48
-0.19
-0.22
0.68
2.77
1.58

-10.16
5.04
3.28
0.48
-1.18
5.16
-1.84
1.43
3.58
2.10

-0.61
3.76
4.32
1.07
2.17
2.28
1.39
1.00
3.36
3.53

-0.42
5.33
0.96
-4.86
1.12
3.23
0.48
0.01
3.80
5.76

2.84
4.20
4.09
-4.75
1.52
1.93
1.46
0.78
3.65
9.10

4.31
4.07
2.35
-0.67
1.85
2.54
-1.20
1.79
0.56
5.59

11.34
8.81
8.35
3.80

7.68
6 .86
5.98
13.74

12.07
9.14
4.80
2.28

6.11
13.07
8.21
6.37

4.25
11.94
4.81
8.35

12.80
13.64
-2.65
12.78

12.02
7 .08
3.52
11.51

8.05
7.54
5.87
10.02

10.06
5.58
6.20
14.65

7.80
3.47
10.88
9.31

14.64
3.35
11.22
25 .08
16.99
-17.44
-27.22
4.26
34.54

1.08
-12.16
13.76
19.73
61.43
-19.06
-32.41
8.95
25.01

6.37
9.25
6.77
15.67
27.05
-33.77
3.36
9.78
28.91

6.96
-11 .47
4.34
25.10
17.11
-28.24
11.39
15.00
30.22

-0.13
-9 .06
1.93
16.98
50.03
-8.21
-8.28
-1.56
16.68

7.67
20.11
4.45
23.09
31.18
-13.61
-2.94
16.25
10.26

4.36
21.72
-2.48
-0.56
49.50
-17.20
-4.48
7.61
11.72

50.64
4.50
62.89
0.35
60.72
36.22

-0.70
2.58
4.86
3.60
-4.15
0.85
1.74
-0.23
1.84
0.64
-1.37
9.90
10.74
6.53
2.23

-0.34
2.69
8.74
5 .54
-1.28
2 .84
2.68
1.74
2.34
1.50

18.02
8.17
9.38
45.06
28.26
-12.56
4 .91
16.49
6 .00

1954. . .
1955...
1956...
1957 ...
1958...
1959. . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968. . .

37.42
-20.58
16.73
10.42
116.20
42.96

2.12
46.86
64.32
-46.15
85.54
2.59

-21.92
68.38
52.01
-49.67
79.28
29.02

44.38
50.83
22 . 5 2
7 .6 1
105.67
-30.40

-18.53
49.79
3.13
-4.75

9.86
61.80
4.56
14.06

20.22
48.40
16.14
-1.54

-21.06
-11.66
22.91
14.47
11.08
-13.76
12.72
15.91
20.78
7.31
15.72
30.36
-0.35
-11 .02

-7.18
-1 .97
10.87
14.56
16.58
-10.42
18.56
13.18
23.82
-12.06
54.31
41.36
-55.45
16.30

11.20
-7.43

-2.70
40.57

-17.10
-15.14

51.19

0.77
1.96
2.05
0.30
-4.03
0. 19
5.24
-0.40
1.56
1.04
3.17
12.67
10.51
6 .34
1 .93

-0.16
-6 . 16
8.44
10.64
1 .67
1.37
10.90
13.20
4.61
36.59
21.13
36.35
-66.43
50.17

32.05
23.90
-6.88
-11.02
7.82
16 .66
31.91
55.85
2.65
53.90
19.0

57.10

34.69

42 .6

92.5
60.0
15.0
30.0
90.0
42.5
12.5
70.0
62.5
22.5
65.0
77.5
32.5
70.0
17.5
45.0
47 .5
77.5
70.0
70.0
7.5
72.5
57.5
37.5
70.0
50.0
80.0
22.5
75.0
42.5
62.5
42.5
77.5
35.0

45.0
35.0
70.0
35.0
47.5
72.5
7.5
17.5
30.0
77.5
87.5
72.5
22.5
37.5
45.0
70.0
60.0
77.5
20.0
32.5
15.0
90.0
57.5
37.5
47.5
62.5
82.5
32.5
60.0
40.0
47.5
90.0
45.0
25.0

4.80
-4.79
8.29
20. 17
35.20
-27.02
-5.89
11 .24
28.05
45.15
8. 19
55.36
46 .28
-29.40

-3.59
4.73
3.92
1.36
0.17
2.42
-0.22
1 .04
3.24
2 .40
5.12
9.69
10.89
1 .89
10.88
11.61
3.97
10.92
1.30
13.17
43.57
-13.01
-5.23
7 .43
12.89
48.67
3.85
53.33
7.94
2.59

2.24
4.53
2 .47
-3.43
1.50
2.57
0.25
0.86
2.67
6.82
5.28
8.64
5.53
7.65
11.33
10.62
-9.47
-6.60
14.07
13.22
9.78
-7.60
14.06
14. 10
16.40
10.61
30.39
36.02
-40.74
18.48

0.40

-2 .87

47 .66

-0.74
3.80
4.28
1.12
-1.02
2.79
1.73
0.41
2.56
3.06
3.69
9.56
9.03
5.74
8.08
13.91
2.01
0.72
28.11
-13.63
-2.02
10.15
18.50
34.08
24.57
36.84
16 .85
2.67
52.28
21.97
10.67
8.73

1988. . .
9 6 1 . D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F A V E R A G E W E E K L Y H O U R S O F P R O D U C T I O N O R N O N SU P E R V IS DRY
WORKERS--20 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 1-MONTH S P A N S )
1954...
1955 ...
1956...
1957 ...
1958. . .
1959. . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970. ..
197 1. . .
1972. . .
1973. ..
1974...
1975. . .
1976...
1977...
1978. ..
1979...
1980...
1981 ...
1982 ...
1983...
1984. . .
1985...
1986 ...
1987. . .
1988...

22.5
92.5
35.0
35.0
27.5
92.5
45.0
92.5
25.0
82.5
0.0
60.0
57.5
72.5
15.0
52.5
35.0
75.0
50.0
42.5
27.5
27.5
92.5
15.0
2.5
32.5
52.5
60.0
5.0
80.0
72.5
27.5
32.5
72.5

75.0
82.5
30.0
77.5
17.5
62.5
12.5
57.5
60.0
42.5
90.0
52.5
82.5
5.0
90.0
17.5
17.5
22.5
72.5
92.5
42.5
10.0
27.5
97.5
77.5
50.0
42.5
22.5
95.0
12.5
90.0
17.5
17.5
72.5

27.5
82.5
25.0
22.5
62.5
72.5
32.5
57.5
77.5
55.0
45.0
75.0
40.0
47.5
15.0
87.5
32.5
72.5
57.5
50.0
37.5
30.0
35.0
35.0
87.5
70.0
2.5
60.0
17.5
100.0
12.5
97.5
80.0
22.5

30.0
42.5
70.0
47.5
40.0
75.0
37.5
80.0
77.5
20.0
77.5
17.5
40.0
57.5
17.5
27.5
20.0
45.0
90.0
55.0
10.0
70.0
25.0
80.0
82.5
0.0
42.5
55.0
25.0
95.0
100.0
20.0
45.0
7.5

67.5
92.5
5.0
10.0
65.0
70.0
80.0
45.0
25.0
85.0
35.0
85.0
65.0
30.0
90.0
52.5
35.0
75.0
12.5
27.5
90.0
50.0
95.0
40.0
5.0
87.5
15.0
82.5
77.5
57.5
12.5
77.5
42.5
95.0

'This series contains revisions beginning with 1980.
contains revisions beginning with 1983.

100



2

77.5
37.5
30.0
45.0
92.5
32.5
22.5
97 .5
35.0
67.5
40.0
30.0
40.0
55.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
52.5
80.0
32.5
40.0
80.0
22.5
82 .5
67.5
55.0
22.5
15.0
77.5
92 .5
42.5
77.5
45 .0
50.0

65.0
25.0
75.0
45.0
82.5
42.5
42.5
60.0
42.5
62.5
62.5
55.0
20.0
72.5
35.0
32.5
82 .5
55.0
30.0
57.5
30.0
75.0
70.0
22.5
60.0
62.5
37.5
35.0
42.5
80.0
52.5
35.0
40.0
62.5

55.0
62.5
22.5
42.5
80.0
32.5
25.0
70.0
40.0
35.0
70.0
42.5
62.5
62.5
55.0
52.5
20.0
27.5
62.5
32.5
50.0
87.5
17.5
52.5
32.5
40.0
87.5
52.5
42.5
57.5
27.5
72.5
80.0
52.5

17.5
72.5
67.5
57.5
77.5
20.0
17.5
42.5
82.5
77.5
17.5
27.5
47 .5
52.5
82.5
62.5
10.0
17.5
47.5
85.0
22.5
72.5
27.5
62.5
45.0
65.0
80.0
15.0
30.0
97.5
67.5
72.5
65.0
25.0

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

72.5
72.5
57.5
5.0
37.5
52.5
90.0
85.0
5.0
57.5
62.5
70.0
50.0
42.5
47.5
27.5
75.0
87.5
57.5
25.0
27.5
50.0
75.0
65.0
37.5
42.5
65.0
65.0
62.5
32.5
15.0
67.5
47.5
87.5

This series contains revisions beginning \ ith 1984.

3

This series

41.7
85 .8
30.0
45.0
35.8
75.8
30.0
69.2
54.2
60.0
45.0
62.5
60.0
41.7
40.0
52.5
28.3
56.7
60.0
61.7
35.8
22.5
51.7
49 .2
55.8
50.8
32.5
47.5
39.2
64.2
58.3
47.5
43.3
55.8

58.3
57.5
35.0
34.2
65.8
59.2
46 .7
74.2
45.8
57 .5
50.8
44.2
48.3
47.5
55.8
40.0
38.3
57.5
60.8
38.3
46 .7
66.7
47 .5
67.5
51.7
47.5
26 .7
50.8
60.0
81.7
51.7
58.3
44.2
50.8

45.8
53.3
55.0
48.3
80.0
31.7
28.3
57.5
55.0
58.3
50.0
41.7
43.3
62.5
57.5
49.2
37.
33.
46.
58.
34.
78.
38.
45.8
45.8
55.8
68.3
34.2
38.3
78.3
49.2
60.0
61.7
46.7

70.0
55.8
47.5
23.3
58.3
55.8
36.7
57.5
32.5
52.5
71.7
73.3
35.0
50.0
36.7
47.5
60.8
80.8
49.2
42.5
16.7
70.8
63.3
46.7
51.7
51.7
75.8
40.0
65.8
38.3
41.7
66 .7
56 . 7
49.2

54.0
63.1
41.9
37.7
60.0
55 .6
35.4
64.6
46 .9
57.1
54.4
55.4
46.7
50.4
47.5
47.3
41.2
57.1
54.2
50.2
33.3
59.6
50.2
52.3
51.2
51.5
50.8
43.1
50.8
65.6
50.2
58.1
51.5
50.6

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

III Q

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

ll Q

90.0
55.0
30.0
7 .5
95.0
17.5
25.0
95.0
22.5
80.0
57.5
85.0
10.0
27.5
45 .0
5.0
45.0

46.7
86.7
10.8
13.3
83.3
70.0
14.2
94.2
50.0
77.5
75.8
52.5
42.5
29.2
68.3
35.8
12.5
62.5
83.3
60.0
6.7

81.7
85.0
18.3
1.7
95.8
40.8
17.5
83.3
33.3
59.2
83.3
74.2
13.3
56.7
57.5
35.0
24.2
76.7
50.8
30.0
13.3

34.2
85.0
74.2
25.8
10.0
23.3
47.5
95.0
33.3
65.0
51.7
65.8

40.0
41.7
51.7
47.5
61.7
10.0
58.3
96.7
16.7
91.7
65.8
68.3

IV Q

Annual

96 1. DIFFU SIGN INDEX OF A V E R A G E WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NON SU PERVIS DRY
WO RKERS 2 0 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)

1954. . .
1955...
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. ..
1959...
1960. . .
1961...
1962...
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965...
1966. . .
1967 . . .
1968. ..
1969. ..
197 0. ..
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976. . .
1977...
1978. . .
1979...
1980. . .
1981. ..
1982 . . .
1983 . . .
1984...
1985 . . .
1986...
1987 . . .
1988. ..

2 .5
100.0
27.5
20.0
10.0
90.0
22.5
42.5
85 .0
57.5
72.5
87.5
85.0
10.0
65.0
45.0
5 .0
65.0
85 .0
57 .5
20.0
0.0
82.5
82.5
70.0
12.5
15.0
95.0
7.5
90.0
80.0
45.0
80.0
70.0

52.5
100.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
95.0
30.0
87.5
82 .5
35.0
65.0
77.5
85 .0
12.5
70.0
22 .5
10.0
87 .5
90.0
37 .5
10.0
15.0
65.0
90.0
70.0
15.0
0.0
85.0
42 .5
90.0
47.5
45 .0
50.0
75.0

35.0
85.0
0.0
17.5
42.5
90.0
27.5
75.0
67.5
95 .0
72.5
85.0
55.0
12.5
65.0
22 .5
17.5
80.0
90.0
45.0
10.0
22.5
77.5
80.0
65.0
22.5
0.0
75.0
25.0
92 .5
47 .5
52.5
37.5
85 .0

40.0
85 .0
5 .0
22.5
67.5
95.0
22.5
95.0
30.0
70.0
90.0
77.5
52.5
25.0
40.0
40.0
12.5
77.5
92.5
35.0
2.5
60.0
62.5
82.5
57.5
20.0
7 .5
50.0
27.5
87.5
30.0
60.0
65.0
77.5

42.5
85 .0
12.5
12.5
92.5
72.5
10.0
0.0
0.0
2 .5
0.0
7 .5
2.5
35.0
77.5
42.5
15.0

57.5
90.0
15.0
5.0
90.0
42.5
10.0

72.5
90.0
12.5
0.0
100.0
42.5
10.0

80.0
80.0
27 .5
0.0
95 .0
45.0
7.5

92.5
85 .0
15.0
5.0
92.5
35.0
35.0

92.5
42 .5
52.5
10.0
97.5
12.5
10.0

95.0
30.0
57.5
10.0
97.5
20.0
15.0

50.0
80.0
87 .5
52.5
32.5
27.5
87.5
25.0
10.0

47.5
67.5
72.5
62.5
10.0
72.5
32.5
62.5
15.0

25.0
60.0
95.0
70.0
15.0
65.0
55.0
20.0
15.0

27.5
50.0
82.5
90.0
15.0
32.5
85 .0
22.5
42.5

17.5
62.5
85 .0
97.5
7.5
72.5
22.5
7.5
32.5

40.0
55.0
92.5
95.0
12.5
62.5
40.0
15.0
52.5

80.0
77.5
2.5
67.5
25.0
82.5
70.0
37.5
2.5
12.5
25 .0
97.5
47.5
65.0
50.0
42.5

77.5
67.5
15.0
65.0
15.0
90.0
95.0
20.0
20.0
7 .5
90.0
100.0
22.5
70.0
40.0
77.5

75.0
42.5
0.0
90.0
32.5
40.0
82.5
40.0
32.5
15.0
35.0
100.0
15.0
90.0
75.0
55.0

50.0
27 .5
5.0
95.0
42.5
72.5
50.0
25.0
75.0
10.0
62.5
100.0
30.0
90.0
55 .0
62.5

27.5
20.0
35.0
100.0
45.0
12.5
22.5
77.5
77.5
5 .0
77.5
90.0
5.0
95.0
67.5
87.5

70.0
27 .5
0.0
100.0
60.0
25.0
57.5
40.0
97 .5
7 .5
60.0
90.0

67.5
32.5
5.0
95.0
57.5
60.0
55.0
15.0
92.5
0.0
77.5
72.5

72.5
7 .5
2.5

30.0
95.0
14.2
17.5
22.5
91.7
26.7
68.3
78.3
62.5
70.0
83.3
75.0
11 .7
66 .7
30.0
10.8
77.5
88.3
46.7
13.3

50.0
100.0
5.0
20.0
95.0
5 .0
95.0
90.0

75.0
84.2
68.3
16.7
5 .0
85 .0
25.0
90.8

65 .0
90.0
35.0

80.0
77.5
50.0

77.5
55.0
60.0

47.5
55.8
76.7

(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH

1954. . .
1955 ...
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959...
1960. . .
1961...
1962 ...
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
1967 . . .
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970. . .
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974. .
.
1975...
1976
1977 ...
1978. . .
1979 ...
1980...
1981.. .
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985 . . .
1986...
1987...
1988. ..

83.0
67.5
40.8
56.9
57.5
57 .2
70.4
73.1
63.8
45 .3
64.5
50.9
41.6
71.5
67.7
60.8
20.4
73.7
69.1
65.9
63.5
53.5
54.1
26.2
52.2
67 .0
55.7
57 .0
50.8

72.3
55.5
39.3

84.0
72.1
34.0

68.6
48.2
35.0

74.2
58.3
29.1

71.1
73.6
21.2

74.9
61.6

35. 1
75.7
44 .5

70.2
64.2
38.9

71.3
60.0
28.4

62.9

57.2

53.3

63.2

53.6

69.2
65.3
71.6
47 .4
58.7

62.3
66.8
77.8
57.8
69.2

72.8
77.8
65.9
51.5
64.2

62.3
64. 1
66.5
63.7
66.3

80.8
79.0
42.5
50.9
58.7

57.2
60.5
56 .0
74.6
67.1

46 . 1
47.6
65.6
79.9
64.7

50.0
58.4
68.9
80.5
65.0

63.4
56 .6
63.0
72.4
77.9

63.9
61.1
65.8
67.9
74.8

56.7
61 .6
72.0
73.6
58.3

51.1
55.5
63.5
78.3
65.6

68.7
43.3
60.1
58.8
58.7
66.1
73.1
69.2

69.5

4.4

67.2

59.2

64.3

63.1

25.6
65.7
62.1
50.3
50.5
51.9
59.7
70.4
64.2
59.7
29.2
59.7
43 .0
69.2

34.6
38.4
65.1
57 .3
48.9

51 .2
57.3
46.5
53.0
50.3

31.4
49.1
60.8
54.3
42.7

48.0
77.0
62.1
51.1
34.4

28.5
46.8
64.8
64.5
38.4

8.2
3.1
2.0
5.5
6. 1

41.9
62.5
72.3
69.4
22.0

44.9
0.0
1.0
1.0
5.6

30.3
53.9
63.1
56.0
50.2

53.0
65.1
69.9
6 1.6
30.0
55.9
33.5
64.9

58.3
64.8
60.8

54.0
61.0
64.5

64.0
66.7
63.7

48.7
63.2
67.2

1.8
8.8
1.8

59.7
71.8
70.7

0.5
9.0
6 .7

61.0
69.3
68.7

33.0
59.7
36.2
72.2

6 1.9
48.9
33.0
70.3

59.7
44.6
39.5
7 1.4

65.1
35.1
29.7
72.7

53.2
51.9
62.4

47.8
46 .8
61.6

54.1
51.9
70.8

53.0
54. 1
62.2

45.7
51.4
68.1

53.5
53.0
67.3

5.1
34.6
31.9
66.2
52.4
54.3
58.9
67.8

62.4
30.0
42.7
67.0
54.3
53.8
58.9
68.4

1 .9
3.2
36.2
52 .4
69.8
52.3
51.3
57.0

29.9
60.3
37.0
67.7
65.9
49 .6
49.8
62.1

43.5
61.1
56.5
52.8
42.5
64.8
58.8
64.2
63.0
51.7
51.5
51.1
36.2
71.3
57.0
50.9
52.5
67.0

70.4
56.5
32 .9
57.5
69.7
69 .8
28.8
64.4
56 .7
67.9
69.9
57.1
64.2
33.2
34.8
68.6
56.0
53.9
56.9
67.8

64.2
60.4
37.9
53.1
65.1
62.4
44.3
49 .8
61.8
67.6
67.1
57.6
49.4
49.4
36.1
65.0
62.2
51.7
52.6
63.5

60.8

71.6

61.7
76.3
81.4
50.3
59.6
66 .0
39.0
41.0
67.2
67.2
47 .6
28.2
67.5
73.7
7 0.4
64.9
49.7
54.6
34.9
58.6

65.9
71.6
74.9
49.1
65.1
62.2
30.8
57.6
62.1
60.5
51.1
41 . 1
70.2
72.3
72.0
50.8
30.5
65.4
34.6
68.9

53.5
49.5
61.1

47.8
50.8
62.4

72.5
46.4
7 0. 1
70.4
79.3
42.2
72.7
69.5
44 .8
37.5
74.2
78.0
58.3
23.9
7 0.4
64.2
63.7
64.3
52.4
50.8
47 .6
46 .5
47 .6
47 .3
59.2

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

SPANS)

54.4
65.0
43.3

35.8
79.8
43.9

17.3
77.3
46 .3

62.7
77.3
22.5
10.4
74.6
54.8
18.8
83.5
47.1
66.2
76.9
75.6
35,2
37.9
57.1
27.5
22.7
76 .2
73. 1
39.8
9.0
65.2
51.2
68. 1
58.3
28.8
42.9
30.6
52.1
91.7
31.2
69.6
61.9
64.8

50.3
69.6
37.4

19.2
77.6
52.1

11.0
64.4
70.9

92.5
42.5
46.7
9.2
96.7
16.7
16.7
88.3
26 .7
65.8
78.3
92.5
10.0
54.2
35.8
9.2
43.3
88.3
70.0
22.5
2 .5
89.2
55.8
61.7
39.2
25.0
95.0
4.2
77.5
84.2
16.7
74.2
74.2
48.3

(PERCENT RISING OVER 6- MONTH

A V E E AGE FOR PERIOD

SPANS)

1954. . .
1955 ...
1957
1958...
1959. ..
1960. . .
196 1. . .
1962...
1963. ..
1964. . .
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968. .
.
1969. . .
1970. . .
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979. ..
1980...
1981...
1982 . . .
1983...
1984. . .
1985...
1986 . . .
1987 . . .
1988...

92.1
70.2
24.2
77.5
58.4
66.5
80.8
88.3
61.1
73.5
76 .7
41.0
38.4
82 .0
85.8
66.7
12 .1
83.1
83.3
80.6
72.7
41 .4
70.5
18.1
49 .2
78.6
47 .3
48. 1
64.6

89.9

89.3

15.4
83.4

23.9
81.3

49.4

28.2
77.2
63.8
7 1.9
78.4
85 .9
53.6
70.9
71.2
34.9
43.6
83.4
82.0
59.9
14.2
83.9
85.2

55.8
75.4
64.4
74.3
81.1
85 .9
52.1
75.0
73.5
28.2
44.2
86.3
74.5
53.8
20.2
77.4
83.6

59.0
71.3
66 .8
78.1
80.5
81.7
8.8
7.9
7.3
0.5
9.4
7.7
68.8
51.9
31.2
74.7
79.8

73.7
68.0
74.9
82.3
79.0
52.3
73.5
77.0
20.3
50.6
72.3
63.2
44.9
48.9
70.4
79.0

36.5
7 1.6
67.4
71.3
80.5
85.9
74.3
51.7
75.3
70.6
22.7
61.6
71.8
57.5
41.1
57.0
71.8
77.7

70.5
35.1
64.6
22.2
61.9
77.3
47 .3
47 .3
64.3

67.6
30.5
61.9
2.7
6.8
6.8
3.2
3.8
63.0

62.7
23.8
67.3
27.0
69.2
75.1
46 .2
42.7
70.3

56.5
26.5
6 1 .4
22.2
76.5
70.0
44.9
43.2
72.4

9.7
7 .3
8.6
1.6
8.6
6.5
4.6
7.0
7 .3

76 .4

80.8

78.1
61.1
68.6
78.7
86.8
77.2
59.6
78.5
67.7
24. 1
55.2

76.9
50.9
61.7
82 .6
87.4
74.9
66.0
78.5
59.3
24. 1
56 . 1

21.5
75.7
49.7
65.9
82 .6
89.2
71.3
67.7
77.6
57.3
8.8
2.8

87.4
66.6
19.9
70.4
52.4
64.7
79.3
87.4
68.0
64.2
77.0
54.7
27 .6
70.3

73.1
45 .5
65.6
82 .0
89.2
65.0
66.9
76.5
53.5
30.5
77.6

61 .6
37. 1
67 .2
62.9
73.9

70.2
32.0
69.6
66.1
74.7

1.2
3.9
5.3
5.1
6.3

71.0
20.2
78.8
68.8
78.2

73.4
16.9
81.7
72.0
80.1

54.9
33.0
45.9
21.4
80.8
64.1
44.3
46.5
78.4

48.4
45.4
36.5
18.6
80.0
61.1
43.8
50.0
79.7

0.0
1.6
1 .9
4. 1
8.9
6.8
8. 1
55.9
82 .7

52.4
74.6
24.6
23.8
78.9
53.5
48.9
53.2
77.8

54.3
69.7
26.5
27 .3
78.6
49.7
47.8
55.9
77.0

66 .4

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1982.




90.3

86.8
63.5

90*4

29.6
80.7

74.5
63.3

72.5
54.2
67.7
82.0
90.7
65.0
70.9
76.7
49 .7
26.7
77.6
82.5
72.3
13.4
80.6
73.9
9.8
4.2
3.8
0.0
2.2
3.2
7 .8
2.7
46 .8
58.4
76 .5

36.1
76 .7
62.2
70.9
80.1
86 .7
55.6
73.1
73.8
34.7
42.1
83.9
80.8
60.1
15.5
81 .5
84.0
81 .3
70.3
35.7
65.7
1.0
9.3
7 .6
5.9
6.4
64.0

68.1
68.9
70.8
77.8
82.9
78.3
50.9
75.6
75.0
24.5
53.9
73.9
63.2
46 .0
45.7
72.3
78.8
77.2
56.3
25.9
62.4
23.6
74.8
70.5
45.2
44.3
73.3

76.9
53.9
65.4
81.3
87.8
74.5
64.4
78.2
6 1.4
25.7
58.0
75.6
67 .7
31.0
70.7
64.7
75.0
74.5
51.1
46 .7
38. 1
2 1.4
79.9
60.7
45 .4
50.8
80.3

88.2
7.5
0.3
2.0
0.7
6.0
81.1
89.1
66.0
67.3
76.7
52.6
28.3
75.2
81.5
72.2
16.8
80.4
71.6
79.4
75.2
53.5
71.4
24.4
28.1
78.4
52.0
47.8
55.8
77.1

75.5
37.2
63.3
62.6
66.1
77.8
85.0
76.4
59.6
75.9
65.7
28.3
57 .3
78.7
71.0
38.5
53.1
72.5
79.3
77.0
57 .8
44.9
47.7
23.5
73.1
65.2
46.1
49 .3
73.7
(JULY 1988)

101

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States

Duration in months
Cycle

Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Peak from
previous
peak

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak

Trough
. June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873

18
8
32
18

30
22
46
18
34

March 1879
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894

March 1882
.... March 1887
. July 1890
January 1893
.... December 1895

65
38
13
10
17

June 1897
December 1900
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912

June 1899
.... September 1902
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913

December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924
November 1927

August 1918
.... January 1920
May 1923
.... October 1926
.... August 1929

March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
May 1954

May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
. . July 1953
August 1957 .

April 1958
February 1961
November 1970
March 1975
July 1980
November 1982

. April 1960 . . .
December 1969
.... November 1973
. January 1980
.
July 1981

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870

36

40
M
50
52

36
22
27
20
18

99
74
35
37
37

101
60
40
30
35

18
18
23
13
24

24
21
33
19
12

36
42
44
46
43

42
39
56
32
36

23
1
18
14
13

44
10
22
27
21

35
51
28
36
40

67
17
40
41
34

43
13
1
11
10

50
80
37
45
39

64
63
88
48
J>5

93
i
l
45
M
49

8
10
1
1
16
6
16

24
106
36
58
12

47
34
HZ
52
64
28

32
H
i
47
74
18

Average, all cycles:
1854-1982 (30 cycles)
1854-1919 (16 cycles)
1919-1945 (6 cycles)
1945-1982 (8 cycles)

18
22
18
11

33
27
35
45

51
48
53
56

Average, peacetime cycles:
1854-1982 (25 cycles)
1854-1919 (14 cycles)
1919-1945 (5 cycles)
1945-1982 (6 cycles)

19
22
20
11

27
24
26
34

46
46
46
46

... .
..

.

..

.

..

.

.
. . . .
...

48
30

n

'51
49
53
55

2

3
4

46
47
45
44

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles
that include the wartime expansions.
1

29 cycles.

2

15 cycles.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

102



3

24 cycles.

1

13 cycles.

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

II

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

Japan

(Yen)
1987
Jan. . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr. . . .
May....
June. . .
July. . .
Aug. . . .
Sept...
Oct....
Nov. . . .
Dec
1988
Jan. . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr. . . .
May
June. . .
July. . .
Aug. . . .
Sept...
Oct....
Nov. . . .
Dec

France
(Franc)

1.8596
1.8239
1.8355
1.8125
1.7881
1.8189
1.8482
1.8553
1.8134
1.8006
1.6821
1.6335

6.2007
6.0760
6.1091
6.0332
5.9748
6.0739
6.1530
6.1934
6.0555
6.0160
5.7099
5.5375
5.5808
5.7323
5.6893
5.6704
5.7348
5.9310
26.2094

1.6537
1.6965
1.6770
1.6710
1.6935
1.7579
2
1.8424

Italy
(Lira)

1987
Jan. . . .
Feb....
Mar
Apr
May
June. . .
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov
Dec
1988
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr. . . .
May
June. . .
July...
Aug. . . .
Sept...
Oct
Nov. . . .
Dec

0.6643
0.6545
0.6280
0.6135
0.6000
0.6139
0.6215
0.6252
0.6081
0.6017
0.5633
0.5468

J*
w^ ^"V-

1317.17
1297.74
1305.90
1292.96
1290.80
1316.50
1337.96
1344.18
1310.86
1302.58
1238.89
1203.74
1216.88
1249.62
1240.67
1240.99
1258.81
1305.56
2
1365.48

ll|lll|lll III

MI

III

ill

III

Ratio scale
—

V

Japan (yen)

^\

Canada
(Dollar)

1.3605
1.3340
1.3194
1.3183
1.3411
1.3387
1.3262
1.3256
1.3154
1.3097
1.3167
1.3075
1.2855
1.2682
1.2492
1.2353
1.2373
1.2176
21.2071

89.29
91.09
89.73
88.95
89.74
92.58
2
96.46

^

^

W(jst Ge rman y(d. mark

f ^\
\

J

^\

A

"^
'S tJ

^

y^
^y

\
^

/^

/

s*

~*vx

r

\

\

'x A^

-N

/

/

/\

-

A
s~* ^j r^

r

_

J*

yV

—

j
B

in
76

-

2.0

—

1.6

10
9
8

—

7

~~

6
S
0.9
0.8

\y

——

/ \A

v

0.7

—

0.8

B

0.5

I
2000
-

V -^ B

1800
1600

-

1400

\J

1200
—

Car)ada tdolla r)

*s v— s^s

^N

800
1.6
1.4

^^f
/^

<^-

1000

—i

*•%, •^\^ fiJ

/

—
_

X "^***
V

•/ \ V.

/^ ^

/
A

/

a
j
in ^ in
III

/v/
.
III III III
III III
III
75
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
1
This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries, For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
2
Average for July 1 through 22.
III

2.4

:
L

S\/

y/

.

"^N

120
2.8

%y

^

/

Exchange value of the U.S. dolla
(index: March 1973 = 100)
f*~+

160

^^

^

Italj/ (lira

200

B

"^ J

A
/\

V

x

r

Unit edKi igdoni (po
und)

/

V\ V,

240

-

I

280

—

^

Fr ance (fran :)

Exchange value
of the U.S.
dollar 1

101.13
99.46
98.99
97.09
96.05
97.78
99.36
99.43
97.23
96.65
91.49
88.70

^'V

/A r

320

-

.

V

0.5553
0.5688
0.5456
0.5324
0.5349
0.5628
20.5881

(March 1973=100)

\

\

\r

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

United
Kingdom
(Pound)

"\

127.69
129.17
127.11
124.90
124.79
127.47
2
133.24

1

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar—

West
Germany
(D. mark)

154.83
153.41
151.43
143.00
140.48
144.55
150.29
147.33
143.29
143.32
135.40
128.24

11 III III lll|

ii

1.2
1.0

160
—

140

~™

120

—

100

—

80

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




103

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data

(and

Series title
unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 1 ( t h o u s . ) . • •
8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. d o ! . ) - •
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol )
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1982 dol., smoothed 2 (ann. rate, bil. d o l . ) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed 2 (percent) .
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil. d o l . )
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent)
910. Composite index of leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

Mar.
1988

.

Apr.
1988

40.9

Net contribution to index

1988

41.2

Mar.
to
Apr.
1988

June
1988

May

r41.0

p41.0

Apr.
to
May
1988

May
to
June
1988

0.25

-0.16

0.00

0.08

-0.11

0.18

•

304

296

307

292

•

86.46

r87.46

r88.60

p87.56

0.06

0.07

-0.08

69

62

66

70

-0.31

0.18

0.21

r40.89

r41.51

r39,98

p42 .93

-0.09

0.21

115.6

114.5

-0.06

-0.03

0.16

r31.05

p!9.41

-0.36

-0.31

.

117 .7

.

r44.76

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous )
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann rate, bil
dol )
47. Industrial production
(index- 1977=100) .
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dol 1 ars (mil dol )
920. Composite index of roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment 1
(weeks )
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
( percent )
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars (mil. d o l . )
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . . .
930. Composite index of lagging indicators 3
(index- 1967=100)

rO.13

0.21

rO.32

119.1

NA
0.46

0.04

0.03

NA

0.05

0.07

265.74

262.61

256.12

270.68

-0.08

-0.17

0.46

2 ,454.5

r2 , 4 6 2 . 3

r2,463.6

P2,466.6

0.11

0.02

0.05

r6.4

r!2.4

P5.5

NA

0.34

-0.39

NA

r!92.4

r!92.9

r!91.3

p!94.0

0.26

-0.83

1.41

105 , 0 2 0

r!05 , 2 8 1

r!05 , 5 0 2

p!05 , 8 4 8

0.21

0.17

0.35

r2 , 7 7 6 . 3

r2, 7 6 8 . 0

r2,769.7

p2 , 7 8 4 . 1

-0.15

0.03

0.34

r!35.4

r!36.1

p!36.6

0.14

0.14

0.13

p446,418

NA

-0.14

0.05

r!76.3

p!77.5

-0.11

0.23

0.68

0. 16

-0.21

0.71

0.13

0.00

134.7
r448,202
r!76.1

r445 ,467
r!75.9

13.7

13.4

13.8

rl.53

rl.54

pi. 5 4

NA

rlOO.5

r99.8

r99.6

plOO.O

8.50

8.84

8.50

12.9

9.00

-0.26

NA

NA

-0.07

0.22

0.00

0.24

0.16

361,185

r367 ,391

r365,925

p363,358

0.45

-0.11

r!5.79

r!5.85

p!5.84

NA

0.23

-0.04

145.7

r!46.8

r!46.6

p!47,8

0.75

-0.14

-0.27

NA
0.82

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
1
This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
2
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
3
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.

104




G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS

These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of
the current business cycle. To set the current movements in historical
perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods also
are shown. The selected periods are superimposed to compare the
current business cycle with corresponding historical patterns and to
facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators' current movements.

1. For most indicators, two cyclical comparison charts are shown.
In the left panel, comparisons are based on reference peak levels and
reference trough dates; in the right panel, comparisons are based on
both the levels and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator.
(See the charts on the following pages.)

The three-part code indicates the timing
classification of the series at peaks, at troughs,
and at all turns: (.Heading; C = roughly coincident; Lg=lagging; and U = unclassified.

This number indicates the latest month (or
quarter) of data plotted. (1 = January)

M i j i T i i i r r T T r i | i T i i T i i i i IT i j i i i Tr r

I

Series number, series title

\

i

2. The vertical line represents trough dates: reference trough
dates in the left panel and specific trough dates in the right panel. The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates
(right panel) are on this vertical line.

• 135

+5
•130

3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left panel) and specific cycle troughs (right panel). The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference peak levels (left panel) and specific trough levels
(right panel) are on this horizontal line.

• 125
4. For most series, deviations (percent or actual differences) from
the reference peak and specific trough levels are computed and plotted.
For series measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate),
these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if plotted) and actual data for the current cycle are shown in the
tables accompanying the charts.

•120

5. For series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e.,
declines in data are plotted as upward movements, and increases in
data are plotted as downward movements.

-10

6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line
(••) describes the current cycle. The dotted line (•••) represents
the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The other
lines represent selected business cycles. In the left panel, each line is
labeled according to the year of the reference trough; in the right panel,
each line is labeled according to the date of the specific trough.

-15

7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and trough
dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957
( I I I Q 1957), Apr. 1960 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973
(IVQ 1973), Jan. 1980 (IQ 1980), July 1981 (IIIQ 1981).

• no

-12

-6

0

+12

+18

Months from troughs

Troughs: Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958
(IIQ 1958), Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ
1975), July 1980 (IIIQ 1980), November 1982 (IVQ 1982).

This scale measures time in months before (-)
and after (+) reference trough dates (left
panel) and specific trough dates (right panel).




This scale shows deviations (percent or actual
differences) from reference peak levels (left
panel) and specific trough levels (right panel).

This scale shows actual series units and applies
only to the current business cycle (heavy solid
line).

105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
FROM ACTUAL
REF.
DATA
7/81
TROUGH

76. Industrial production, business equipment

| MII T m T m T" M l

r M T m T lll T m T m T IM T|n^~

76. Industrial production, business equipment

SERIES
76
1977-100
145.6

56

11.1

57
58
59
60

11.1
145.6
11.6
146.3
13.4 148.7
13.1
148.3

61
62
63
64

14.3 149.8
15.3
151.2
16.2 152.4
16.9
153.3

65
66
67

17.9
19.4
20.0

154.6
156.5
157.3

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
FROM ACTUAL
SPEC.
10/82
TROUGH
DATA
SERIES
76
1977-100

140
57
58
59
60

• 130

• 120

34.1
34.1
34.7
36.9

145 .6
145 .6
146 .3
148 .7

61
62
63
64

36.6
37.9
39.2
40.3

148 .3
149 .8
151 .2
4
152 .

65
66
67
68

41.2
42 .4
44.1
44.8

153 .3
154 .6
156 .5
157 .3

- 10

• 110

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

- 5

SERIES
91
WEEKS

91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)

14.2
57
58
59
60

14 .3
14 .2
14 .1
14 .0

61
62
63
64

14 .2
4
14 .
4
14 .
13 .7

65
66
67

91. Average duration of unemployment
(inverted)

13 .4
13 .8
12 .9

Actual

MONTHS DE VIFROM ATI ONS CURRENT
SPEC.
F ROM ACTUAL
TROUGH
7 /83
DATA
SERIES
91
WEEKS

48

-7.0

14.2

49
50
51
52

-6.9
-7.0
-7.1
-7.2

14.3
14.2
14.1
14.0

- 20

53
54
55
56

-7.0
-6.8
-6.8
-7.5

14.2
14.4
14.4
13.7

_J 22

57
58
59

-7.8
-7.4
-8.3

13.4
13.8
12.9

0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54+60+66
Months from reference troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 105 of this issue.

106



+2

iim|iiiii IIMII liimliiiiiliiiii liim liiiiiliiiiilmiilmiili
0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30+36+42+48 + 54+60 + 66
Months from specific troughs

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
30. Change in business inventories, 1982 dollars

QRTRS.
FROM

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

REF.
TROUGH

14
15
16

30. Change in business inventories, 1982 dollars

SERIES
30
ANN. R A T E BIL. DOL.
23.6
3.0
-10.5

17
18
19
20

29.8
27.8
13.0
67.1

21
22

66.0
45.0

QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
FROM ACTUAL
SPEC.
TROUGH IV/82
DATA

13
14
15
16

S E R I E S 30
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
105.0
45.7
23.6
82.9
62.3
3.0
48.8
-10.5

17 89.1
18 87.1
19 72.3
20 126.4

29.8
27 .8
13.0
67 .1

21
125.3
22 104.3

66 .0
45 .0

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
FROM ACTUAL
REF.
TROUGH 111/81
DATA

14
15
16

SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
3711.6
13.7
14.0
3721.3
14.4
3734.7

17
18
19
20

15.7

3776.7
3823.0
3865.3
3923.0

21
22

21.2
22.1

3956.1
3986.3

QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH 111/82
DATA

14
15
16

SERIES . 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
17.9
3719.3
17.7
3711.6
18.0
3721.3

17
18
19
20

18.4
19.7
21.2
22.5

21
22
23

24.4 3923.0
25.4 3956.1
26.4 3986.3

3734.7
3776.7
3823.0
3865.3

0 + 6 +12+18 + 24+30+36+42+48+54+60 + 66
Months from reference troughs

• 3,200

0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30+36+42+48+54+60 + 66
Months from specific troughs

Note: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 105 of this issue.




107

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures

Current issue
(page numbers)
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

604

56

92

10/87

Series
description
(*)

56

58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973

22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38

65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76

6/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87

20
37
37
37
....
23
23
37
37
37
37
37

616
55

56
22

92
65

10/87
9/87

56
39

B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building—See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations ..
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving..

Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy...:
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four comciders, index
Four comciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Eleven leaders, index
Eleven leaders, rate of change
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability

See notes at end of index.

108



93
94

33
33

72
72

2/88
2/88

35
35

29
76

13,25
24

67
67

5/88
12/87

24
12

14
12
13

33
23
23

72
65
65

6/87
1/88
1/88

34
21
21

101
72
112
295

15,35
35
32
46

73
73
71
82

7/88
7/88
7/88
1/88

32
32
32
26

82
84

20
20

64
64

11/87
11/87

14
14

97
11
965
333

24
24
37
48

66
66
75
86

5/88
5/88
5/88
3/88

22
22
22
51

914
35
34

29
29

60
70
70

1/86
9/87
9/87

5
26
26

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
9
9

920
920c
951
940
9

10
39
36
11
23

60
....
74
60
66

5/88
5/88
12/87
11/87
5/88

5
5
5
21

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

7/88
7/88
7/88

32
32
32

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/87
1/88

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

9/87

46

346

49

88

10/87

46

340

49

87

8/87

5

341
348
349

49
50
50

87
88
88

4/88
7/87
7/87

5
53
53

53

19

63

4/88

11

920
920c
940

10
39
11

60

5

60

5/88
5/88
11/87

930
930c

10
39

60
....

10/87
10/87

5

60
60

1/86
6/88
6/88
1/88
1/88
1/88

5
5

914
910
910c
915
917
916

10
39
11
11
11

60
60
60

5

5
5
5

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Series
number

Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales...
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

Debt—See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing..
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade....
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.

Current issue
(Pa8e numbers)
Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series

description
(*)

5/88

29

13,25

9
69

23
24

66
67

5/88
8/87

21
17

248
87
89
249
28
334

25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22

67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65

9/87
12/87
9/87
9/87
12/87
5/88
3/88
4/88
12/87

40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

5/88
5/88
2/88

33
33
33
34

320
322
58

49
49
22

84,95

3/88
3/88
6/87

49
49
20

525

53

90

7/87

55

20

12,23

66

5/88

21

10
116

23
34

66
73

5/88
5/88

21
35

10/87

110

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

7/88
7/88
7/88

32
32
32

66
113
95
39
Ill
33

35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32

73
72
73
72
72
71

5/88
5/88
5/88
2/88
7/88
9/86

33
33
33
34
31
31

98
331

28
48

69
85

4/88
3/88

51
50

557

54

517
543
580
578
577
525

.

32

101
72
112

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
91
90

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

8/87
10/87
10/87

17
15
17
15
5
43
43

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

2/88
1/88

34
17

965
951
974
963
966

37
36
38
36
37

5/88
12/87
8/87
7/88
12/87

22
5
37
5
12

962
975
952
950
964

36
38
36
36
37

2/88
8/87
12/87
6/87
9/87

37
5
5
15

971
970
960
972
967

38
38
37
38
37

8/87
11/87
5/88
8/87
1/88

37'
23
37
37
25

973
976
978
977
968
961

38
38
38
38
37
36

75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77

8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
2/87
7/88

37'
37
37
37
25
5

12/87
7/87
10/87
10/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
6/88

55
55
56
56
56
55

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change

Current issue
(page numbers)
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

441
578
577

51
55
55

89
91
91

2/88
7/87
7/87

48c

Series
description
(*)

9
56
56

7/88

39

....

48

17

61

7/88

5

Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.

40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1

17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16

7/88
8/87
7/88
7/88
2/88
8/87
2/88
12/87
2/88
2/88
2/88
7/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
5/88
2/88
7/88

5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
5

961

36

62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74

7/88

5

Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic

119

34

72

6/88

35

94
213
917

33
40
11

72
80
60

2/88
10/87
1/88

35
38
5

311

48

84

9/87

49

93

33

72

2/88

35

Total

business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves

G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense.
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.

49

20

63

9/87

14

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
1/88

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81

1/88
1/88
1/88
10/87
10/87
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

311
68

48
30

84
70

9/87
9/87

49
28

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

19,40
....
39
40
....
31
20
48
40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80

9/87
9/87
9/87
10/87
10/87
10/87
5/88
9/87
9/87
10/87

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

46
60

16
16

61
61

12/87
2/88

9
9

1

12,16

7/88

5

961
21

36
16

61
77
74
61

7/88
7/88

5
5

H
Help wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits..
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAd|
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures..
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change...
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income.
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans.
Corporate bond yields.
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields..
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields...
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany

Series
number

28
29
89
249

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts

25
13,25
25
47

Tables

67
67
67
83

Historical
data
(issue date)

5/88
5/88
9/87
12/87

Series
description
(*)

24
24
40
40

9/87

310

345

49
45

87
82

10/87
1/88

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

9/87

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

73
82

10/87
5/88
1/88

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

83
80

1/88
10/87
10/87

26
11
11

10/87

227

8/87
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
51c
51
108
282

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

7/87
7/87
1/88
1/88
10/87
9/87
9/87

5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11

39
14,19 63
31
71
45
82

9/87
9/87
5/88
1/88

11
30
47

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

283
284

47
45

83
82

1/88
1/88

47
47

285
348
349

47
50
50

83
88
88

1/88
7/87
7/87

47
53
53

53
13
335

19
23
48

63
65
85

1/88
3/88

11
21
51

12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87

12
12
13
12
12
12

24
67
76
22
65
75
557
54
91
20
63
73
74
20
63
47 14,20,58 63,94
78
37
75
966
47c
39

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

5
962
45

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73

733
736
737
738
732
320
735

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

94
58
723
94
58
726
94
58
727
94
58
728
94
721
58
94
58
722
47 14,20,58 63,94
725
58
94

12/87
12/87
1/88
1/88

25
25

1/88

47
47

5/88
6/88
5/88
5/88
5/88

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
3/88
4/88

60
61
61
61
60
49
61

6/88

59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

6/88
12/87

See notes at end of index.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International comparisons— Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, change
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars.
Manufacturing and trade, DL...
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change— See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars ..
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars

Current issue
Vyagc MI

Series
number

Charts

Tables

743
746
747

59
59
59

96
96
96

748
742

59
59

96
96

19
745

59
59

96
96

667
622
602
618

57
57
56
57

93
93
92
93

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description

7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87

63
63
63

57
57
56
57

(*)

63
63

25
63

Total, current dollars

Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad

27

68

5/87

17

38
84
8

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

5/87
11/87
4/88

17
14
15

11

60

1/88

5

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
7L
71
71
71
73
73

5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
9/86
6/88
5/88

29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

11/87
11/87
4/88

15
15
15

12,23

66

5/88

21

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

5/88
6/88
4/88
4/88

21
15
15
15

964
971

37'
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

9/87
8/87

15
37

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

9/87
9/87
9/87
12/87

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

7/87
10/87
6/88

55
55
58

580

82
93
92
92

620
616
669
257
253

57
56
57
44
44

93
92
93
82
82

614
652
651

56
57
57

92
93
93

255

44

82

12/87

44

250

44

82

12/87
12/87

44

Mortgage debt, net change

44

Mortgage yields, secondary market

40
40

11
27
26
27
38

68
60
68
68
68
76

9/87
12/87
12/87
6/88
5/87
11/87
1/88
11/87
6/87
11/87
8/87

36

13,26

68

4/88

17

78

27

68

5/87

17

38

26

68

5/87

17

251

47

83

30
245

26,42

68,81

42

81

247
559
65

47
54
27
15,27

83
91
68

manufacturers' inventories
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and

54

91

10/87

56

49

20

63

9/87

14

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
70
88
88
64
64
61

10/87
10/87
10/87
10/87
11/87
11/87
7/88

28
28
52
52
14
14
5

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

9/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

1/88
1/88
10/87

48
48
56

34
29

57
56
57
44
44

Military— See Defense.

56
57
57

Materials prices— See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade— See International

transactions.

Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply Ml, constant dollars
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2

Municipal bond yields

77
915
71
31
70
975

5
"5"

Materials and supplies on hand and on order,

44
57
56
56

40
17
17

17
5
17
17
17
37

N
National defense— See Defense.
National Government— See Government.
National income— See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars ....
Defense products ..
Durable goods industries, constant dollars.

97
11
965
914
9
69

24
24
37
'23'

24

Durable goods industries, current dollars.

66
66
75
60
66

5/88
5/88
5/88
1/86
5/88

22
22
22
5
21

Nonresidential fixed investment

67

8/87

17

Structures, constant dollars

Components
Diffusion index .
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

11/87
11/87
9/87
12/87

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

9/87
9/87
9/87
12/87
11/87
11/87

40
40
40
40
40
40

23

66

11/87

15

23

66

11/87

15

20
10
100
61

12,23
23
24
24

66
66
67
67

21
21

57
57

Total, percent of GNP

0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department

.

970

38

76

5/88
5/88
11/87
11/87
11/87

652
651

57
57

93
93

7/87
7/87

23

OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output— See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend.
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

23

p
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles

Japan— See International comparisons.

Durable goods, constant dollars

L




74
72
71

6/88
6/88
6/87
6/87
5/88

Materials and supplies on hand and on order,

Males 20 years and over.

110

60

M

44
57
56
56

J

See notes at end of index.

10
39
36
33
31

Loans— See Credit.

252
668
606
612

56
44

Italy— See International comparisons.

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force— See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change.
Diffusion index

910
910c
950
14
104

20

Liquid assets, change in total

92
82

Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars

Tables

917

Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures

56
44

New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars

^

Series
description
(*)

Charts

78

.

Composite index, rate of change

604
256

New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars

"

Historical
data
(issue date)

'™"°

number

Composite index

7/87
7/87
10/87
7/87
10/87
12/87
12/87
7/87
10/87
10/87
7/87
10/87
7/87
12/87
12/87
10/87
7/87
7/87

24

Total, constant dollars

n mhor

Series

Leading indicators, eleven

27

Residential, percent of GNP

Current issue

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Durable goods, current dollars

68
63

30
30

70
70

9/87
10/87

28
28

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
70
70

10/87
10/87
10/87

28
28
28

Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars .
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income— See Income.

930
930c

952

10
39
36

60
74

10/87
10/87
12/87

5
"5"

Personal saving
Personal saving rate..
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment— See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars.
Contracts and orders, current dollars ..
Expenditures by business, constant dollars.
Expenditures by business, current dollars.
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices— See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices— See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices— See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production— See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAd), constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAd) to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd)
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income

Series
number

20
10
100
61
970
90
320
322

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts

Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

12,23
23
24
24
38
17

66
66
67
67
76
62

5/88
5/88
11/87
11/87
11/87
2/88

21
21

49
49

8495
84

3/88
3/88

'23'
23
9

49
49

311
310
26

84
84
70

9/87
9/87
10/87

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

'.

48
48
29
48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
4/88

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
23

'37'
28

79
75
69

1/88
1/88

'25'
25

98
99

28
13,28

69
69

4/88
4/88

51
25

19
968
26

13,28
37
29

69
75
70

7/87
2/87
10/87

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

8/87
8/87
8/87
7/87
2/88

37
37
37
55
35

88

25

67

9/87

40

370
358
916

50
50
11

88
88
60

10/87
10/87
1/88

52
52
5

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
2?

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

1/88
1/88
8/87
5/88
1/88
1/88
9/87

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

9/87
1/88

26
47

283

47

83

1/88

47

Spot market index

Rental income of persons with CCAd)
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free ....
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

Charts

Tables

249

47

83

12/87

40

59
54

22
22

65
65

5/88
5/88

20
20

213

40

80

10/87

38

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14.22
22
38
15,27
22
22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

8/87
11/87
11/87
8/87
11/87
5/88
5/88

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88

26
48
48
48
48

98
99
588

28
13,28
54

69
69
91

4/88
4/88
6/88

51
25
17

967
23

'37'
28

79
75
69

1/88
1/88

'25'
25

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

7/87
2/87

25
25

114
115

Residential fixed investment percent of GNP
Residential structures— See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales current dollars

Series
number

34
34

72
73

5/88
5/88

35
35

91
60
5
962

15,18
16
12,16
36

62
61
61
74

2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
8
8

446
445
447
444
37

51
51
51
51
18,51

89
89
89
89
62,89

2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
9
9
9

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

2/88
5/88
2/88

9
8
9

561
96
25

54
21
21

91
64
64

6/88
6/88
6/88

15
15
15

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

71
71
64

5/88
5/88
1/88

30
30
17

1

12,16

5

'36'

61
77
74

7/88

96l'

7/88

5

g
Salaries— See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving.
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices— See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government— See Government.
Stock prices— See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus— See Government.

T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

u

R
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components ..
Diffusion index

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

967
23
284

'37'
28
45

79
75
69
82

1/88
1/88
1/88

25
25
47

285
93
89

47
33
25

83
72
67

1/88
2/88
9/87

47
35
40

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products ...
Durable goods industries, change.
United Kingdom— See International comparisons.

V
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries

Wages and salaries— See Compensation.
West Germany— See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices— See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Diffusion index

NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




111

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. "M" following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910.

Composite index of eleven leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
111) (M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

914.

Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M)-Source 1 (11,60)

915.

Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)

(18,51,62,89)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over ( E O M ) . — A m e r i c a n Bankers
Association
(33,72)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3
(17,62)

Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1
(29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)

(28,69,79)

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(29,70)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source
2
(26,68)

917.

(12,16,61,77)

1

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source

37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

916.

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).—Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3

43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).—The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source 3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source

1

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1

(29,70)

(19,63)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1
(19,63)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(21,64)

28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
land 2
(12,21,64)

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).—Source 2
(13.25,67)

(12,16,61)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

112



30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M). —Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21.64)

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q.M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22.65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).— Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

89.

Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)

90.

Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)

63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)

Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)

64.

Free reserves (M).-Source 4

(33,72)

I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Sourcel
(36,74)
951.

Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(37,75)

Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

94.

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (EOM) .—
Source 2
(27,68)

Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)

95.

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)

Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

96.

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)
r

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source2
(21,64)

97.

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)

Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)

962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)

98.

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67)

Percent change in producer prices for sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)

963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)

99.

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)

Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)

100.

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current
dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)

New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou r e e l
(24,67)

964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)

101.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)

102.

Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4

104.

Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
4
(31,71)

105.

Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(31,71)

106.

Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(13,31,71)

107.

Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)

108.

Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)

109.

Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)

110.

Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source 4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68)
79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)

Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)

112.

Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)

113.

Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)

114.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Depart
ment of the Treasury
(34,73)

82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
Source 4
(20,64)

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials ( M ) . — S o u r c e
4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4

(31,71)

117

'

86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)




(31,71)

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)

119.

Federal funds rate (M).—Source 4

(34.72)

961.

Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)

965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
40-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).-Source 1
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission f r o m the
source.)
(38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be r e p r o d u c e d without w r i t t e n
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
s e r i e s may not be r e p r o d u c e d w i t h o u t w r i t t e n
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series 245 Change in business inventories in current dollars
may not be reproduced without written permission
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
from the source.)
(38,76)
247 Change in business inventories as a percent of
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradegross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
may not be reproduced without written permission
1
(47,83)
from the source.)
(38,76)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
1
(47,83)
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the 250 Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
source.)
(38,76)
(Q)-Source 1
(44,82)

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of

II-A. National Income and Product

gross national product (Q).—Source 1

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)

252

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

253

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

255

200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

256

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(40,80)

257

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

260

220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source

1

(45,82)

26L

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source

1

(40,63)

(47,83)

Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
Imports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)

Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
Government purchases of goods and services in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
vices in current dollars (Q).—Source 1

263

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

265

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)

295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

298. Government surplus or deficit ( Q ) . — S o u r c e 1

(46,83)

II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310.

(43,81)

Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)

311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)

330.
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
331.
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
332.

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).—Source 3
(48,85)
Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)

333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49.87)
341.

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dol- 266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
lars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars 267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
(Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
State and local government purchases of goods and
232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dol- ^68.
services as a percent of gross national product
lars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dol280. Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 (45,82)
lars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
capital consumption adjustments ( Q ) . — S o u r c e
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
1
(45,82)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dol- 283 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
lars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

national income (Q).—Source 1

237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

(47,83)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,81) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dolSource 1
(47,83)
lars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua240. Gross private domestic investment in current doltion and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
lars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
Source 1
(45,82)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
237 Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua(Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
tion and capital consumption adjustments as a
OQC

242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

(47,83)
(45,82)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).-Source 3 (50,88)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

(18,51,62.89)
441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

442. Civilian employment (M).—Source 3

(51.89)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3
(51.89)

114



* U . S . G . P . O . 1988-201-^70:8000?

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-SourceS

570.

(51,89)

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).—
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)

577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578.

452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)

580.

Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production (M).Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)

(58,94)

723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725.

West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)

726.

France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

727.

502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

II-E. U.S. International Transactions

728.

510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)

Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

732.

511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

604.

Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)

733.
606.

Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

612.

General imports (M).-Source 2

735.

West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis

736.

France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)

737.

Italy, consumer price index (M) .-Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

738.

Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)

742.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)

743.

Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)

745.

West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)

746.

France, index of stock prices (M).-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

II-D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

(52,90)

512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525.

543.

Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Depart
ment of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616.

Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1

,

(57,93)

622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)

652. Income on foreign investment in the United States

557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).
-Source 2

(54,91)

561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source2

(57,93)
(57,93)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)

(54,91)

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




(Q).-Source 1

(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)

II-F. International Comparisons

(59,96)
747.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)

748.

Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's

Corporation

(13,28,59,69,96)

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