Full text of Business Conditions Digest : July 1983
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
f ;;|pvp:f!fl NDITIONS M r AM I i t ttf^iitiP^i^^f U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary Robert G. Dederick, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS George Jaszi, Director Allan H. Young, Deputy Director Charles A. Waite, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections Feliks Tamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541) The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Norman Frumkin, Office of Management and Budget Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic, $68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic, $6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue BCI» iii METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 JULY 1983 Data Through km Volume 23, Number 7 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Al A2 A3 A4 Chart Table 10 12 14 15 60 — — — 16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 36 — 39 Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components 74 77 — CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Cl C2 C3 Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through April 1, 1985. BCII PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Al A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving Shares of GNP and National Income Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 48 49 84 87 51 89 52 53 90 90 56 57 92 93 58 59 59 94 95 96 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Bl B2 Price Movements Wages and Productivity LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue) QCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue) B. Current Adjustment Factors C. Historical Data for Selected Series 97 98 D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide') E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (June 1983 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 103 104 110 114 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to Incorporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may Changes in this issue are as follows: result in revisions of 1. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., has identified November 1982 as the trough of the recession that began in July 1981. The 1981-82 recession has been added to the BCD charts (pages 10-59) and to the business cycle chronology (appendix E). The cyclical comparisons in appendix G have been changed to show business cycle expansions. 2. The series based wholly or in part on national income and product accounts (NIPA) data have been revised by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the period 1980 to date to reflect the incorporation of new source data. The series revised are as follows: series 16, 18, 20, 22, 27, 30, 34-36, 49-53, 55, 59, 62, 64, 68, 70, 79-81, 86-89, 95, 107, 108, and 223 in section I-B; all series in section II-A; series 310 and 311 in section II-B; and series 500-502, 510-512, 564, and 565 in section II-D. (See items 3 and 4, below, concerning additional revisions in series 20, 36, and 70.) Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Wealth Division. (Continued on page iv.) The August issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on September 6. in data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series* changes in composition of indexes, etc. 3. The series on manufacturing and trade inventories in constant dollars have been revised to incorporate recent revisions in the current-dollar data. (See item 2 of "New Features and Changes for This Issue" in the June 1983 BCD.) These revisions are in addition to those noted in item 2, above. In this issue, revised data are shown for the period 1980 to date for series 36 (change in inventories on hand and on order in constant dollars) and series 70 (manufacturing and trade inventories in constant dollars). Also, manufacturing and trade sales in constant dollars (series 57) has been revised for the period January 1983 to date to reflect the revision of retail sales in constant dollars. Revised data for the period prior to 1983 will be shown in a subsequent issue. The ratio of constant-dollar inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade (series 77), has been revised for the period January 1983 to date. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division. 4. Series 20 (contracts and orders for plant and equipment in constant dollars) and series 69 (machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures) have been revised for the period 1980 to date to reflect the computation of new seasonal adjustment factors for data on the value of new construction-put-in-place. In addition to the above revision, series 20 and series 27 (manufacturers1 new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in constant dollars) reflect the use 1 of revised deflators from the NIPA (item 2, above) and recent revisions in data on manufacturers new orders for the period 1977 to date. (See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" in the May 1983 BCD.) Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division; and Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division. 5. The series on employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 48) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1979 to date to reflect the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research. 6. Capacity utilization estimates compiled by the Federal Reserve Board (series 82 and 84) have been revised for the period 1967 to date. These revisions incorporate new data on industrial capacity and its utilization and reflect the decline in recent years (1979-82) in capacity growth for both manufacturing and producers of industrial materials. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Business Conditions Section. 7. The series on Japanese industrial production (series 728) has been revised for the period 1978 to date to reflect the source agency's adoption of new base year weights. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Economic and Financial Statistics Section (Paris). 8. Appendix C contains historical data for series 1, 21, 40, 41, 72, 101, 109, 111, 112, 570, 580, 961, and 963. 9. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 30, 43, 47, 50, 910, and 920. IV METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1956, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1971. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed as a result of revisions in important economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-70 time period are those determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980. and 1981-82. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity-that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, conformity to business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list of indicators classified by economic process and typical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below relating to section B.) This information, particularly the scores relating to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the selection of series to be included in the composite indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing behavior, using their overall performance scores as weights. Because they use series of historically tested usefulness and given timing characteristics (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), with diversified economic coverage and a minimum of duplication, composite indexes give more reliable signals over time than do any of the individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the 1 Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks ^v Economic NyProcess Cyclical Timing \ N. LEADING fL) INDICATORS (62 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (18 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) EMPLOYMENT II. PRODUCTION IV. III. CONSUMPTION. FIXED TRADE, CAPITAL ORDERS, AND INVESTMENT DELIVERIES (18 series) (13 series) AND AND UNEMPLOYMENT (18 series) INCOME (10 series) Marginal employment adjustments (6 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) New and unfitted orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and real income <4 series) industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) V. INVENTORIES VI. VII. PRICES, COSTS, MONEY AND CREDIT AND PROFITS (26 series) (17 series) Backlog of investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (5 series) Duration of unemployment (2 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Trade (1 series) AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Money ftows (3 series) Real money supply (2 series) Credit flows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) interest rates (1 series) Velocity of money (2 series) interest rates (2 series) Unit labor costs and tabor share (4 series) 1 nterest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (3 series) Commodity prices (1 series) Profit share (1 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) (8 series) Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash fiows (2 series) interest rates (1 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs \ . Economic \Process Cyclical^ Timing N. LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (18 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (17 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (26 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Industrial production (1 series) New and unfitted orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money flows (2 series) Real money supply (2 series) Credit ftows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Comprehensive output and real income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization {2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Profits (2 series) Money ftow (I series) Velocity of money (1 series) Unfitted orders (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) Untt tabor costs and labor share (4 series} Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding aeDt (3 series) Marginal employment adjustments ROUGHLY (2 series) COINCIDENT(C) Comprehensive INDICATORS employment (23 series) (4 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (40 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive and duration of unemployment (5 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established differences in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through 4-1 at peaks and from -1 through + 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include all 12 component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 12 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. U L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at both peaks and troughs, all components of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 111 individual time series, including the 22 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment nonprofit institutions and the value of the change This section contains measures of the civilian This part is divided into six sections which cover in the physical volume of inventories held by labor force and its major components: Total private business. The former include all private a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series numbers of employed and unemployed persons. measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used Some of these series are very comprehensive, selected categories defined by sex, age, and class pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation have to do with particular sectors or markets, and (A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor still others relate to U.S. international transactions force. or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local land and financial assets. government. Also shown is a selection of series key foreign countries. Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators. less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which Section A. National Income and Product of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production, final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. foreign, and government sectors of the economy. National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede pronational p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a l consumption the factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders, expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to net exports of goods and services-are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest. coincide with production, such as employment, and sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity." series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit. January 1976. This group includes monthly series on exports Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The Gross national product (GNP) is the market major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income. most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income. Section F. International Comparisons economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. This section is designed to facilitate a quick Personal income is the income received by review of basic economic conditions in six of the persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity nations with which we have important trade businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corthe GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inless personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inuct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically senpayments to government. sitive output measures for large parts of the Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1971. The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provide the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1971) tend to be significant as leading indicators. rates of change for most of these measures. cluded. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A " is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Rates of Change Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3- or 4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. •fiffifil HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, o r - 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data2 Unit of measure 1 Series title and timing classification Percent change Annual average 1981 1982 Apr. to May. 1983 May to June 1983 4th Q 1982 1st Q 1983 2dQ 1983 Apr. 1983 154.2 137.6 152.4 135.7 113.3 119.8 154.3 138.0 110.9 124.4 155.9 139.1 N A N A 1.2 1.7 -2.1 N A 107.5 101.8 N A 129.8 N A 109.3 102.3 N A 129.5 N A 110.0 101.6 N A N A N A 1.7 0.5 N A -0.2 0.6 -0.7 N A N A May 1983 June 1983 4th Q to 1st Q 1983 1st Q to 2dQ 1983 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A. Composite Indexes 910. 920. 930. 940. Twelve leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators Six lagging indicators Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Leading Indicator Subgroups: 913. Marginal employment adjustments 914. Capital investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing 916. Profitability 917. Money and financial flows L,L,L... 1967 = 100.... do C,C,C... do Lg.Lg.Lg--•• do L,L,I L,L,L... L,L,L... L,L,L... L,L,L... L,L,L... ...do... ...do... ...do.. ...do.. 140.9 146.0 122.4 119.3 136.8 136.3 123.0 110.8 139.6 132.6 118.5 111.9 147.7 134.2 115.1 116.6 93.0 107.7 100.9 97.9 122.7 N A 104.3 97.2 93.9 122.8 N A 105.6 97.1 96.1 122.5 N A 106.7 99.4 N A 129.0 39.8 2.8 446 38.9 2.3 578 39.0 2.3 599 39.5 2.5 488 40.0 2.8 443 40.1 2.9 470 39.9 2.7 453 40.1 2.9 406 -0.5 -0.2 3.6 0.5 0.2 10.4 1.3 0.2 18.5 1.3 0.3 9.2 1 21 5 0.429 119 0.243 86 0.198 79 0.216 83 0.230 87 0.213 81 0.231 87 0.246 92 0.018 7.4 0.015 5.7 0.018 5.1 0.014 4.8 60 46 170.02 97,030 91,156 25,497 165.84 96,125 89,596 23,907 163.85 95,705 88,796 23,160 164.58 95,697 88,815 23,088 166.80 96,514 89,426 23,340 166.12 96,088 89,101 23,159 166.97 96,190 89,416 23,347 167.31 97,264 89,760 23,514 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0. 0. -0.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.1 48 42 41 40 58.28 57.06 56.57 56.40 56.73 56.51 56.52 57.16 0.01 0.64 -0.17 0.33 8,273 10,678 11,839 11,439 11,222 11,328 11,192 11,146 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.7 10.4 7.6 9.7 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.1 5.1 4.5 3.4 4.6 22.0 20.5 19.0 20.4 17.5 19.2 13.7 15.6 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 2.1 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.3 -7.4 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 -7.8 0. 3.4 0.3 0.6 -9.7 -0.1 1.9 0.3 0.4 -6.8 0.2 37 43 45 91 44 1513.8 1485.4 1480.7 1490.1 1521.4 1254.2 1256.1 1259.5 1265.2 1275.7 1267.9 1278.5 1280.6 1080.5 1073.8 1068.6 1075.5 1086.3 1078.1 1088.7 1092.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 2.1 0.8 1.0 50 52 51 NA NA NA 108.9 101.9 NA NA 3.8 1.0 0.8 NA NA NA 5.8 1.2 -2.9 4.2 N A 1.0 2.4 N A 5.3 4.4 2.5 NA NA 910 920 930 940 NA 2.1 2.5 NA NA 913 914 915 916 917 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process B l . Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: * 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg 21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.3 *5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4) .. L.L.I—.. Hours do .. L.C.L-.. L.C.L.... Thousands- Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3.. .. L,Lg,U.... Ratio 46. Help-wanted advertising . L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100... Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee-hours in nonagri. establishments 42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities *41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls 40. Employees in mining, mfg., construction 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age3 Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Total unemployed (inverted4) 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)3 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3 •91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3 ... U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs ... U.C.C.... Thousands do ... C,C,C... do ... L.C.U.... .. U,Lg,U.... Percent ... L,Lg,U.... Thousands... L,Lg,U.... Percent do ... L,Lg,U... .. Lg,Lg,Lg.... Weeks • Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50. GNPin 1972 dollars 52. Personal income in 1972 dollars *51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars C.C.C. C,C,C. C,C,C... ..do... ..do- C,C,C... 229.8 216.2 208.5 212.5 216.2 214.8 215.9 218.0 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.7 Industrial Production: *47. Industrial production, total 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars C,C,C... 1967 = 100 ...do C,C,C... ...do C,L,L... C,C,C... A.r., bit. dot 151.0 140.5 164.8 692 6 138.6 124.7 156.2 661 6 135.3 119.8 155.7 652 1 138.5 124.2 159.0 656 9 144.3 131.2 164.7 679 2 142.7 129.1 163.3 144.3 131.2 164.9 145.9 133.2 165.9 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 0.6 2.4 3.7 2.1 0. 7 4.2 5.6 3.6 3.4 47 73 74 49 Capacity Utilization: 83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA3 82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB3 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB3 L.C.U.... L,C,U. Percent do... 76 79.4 80. 7 70 71.1 70. 0 68 69.0 67.1 70 70.7 70.1 2 1.7 3. 0 N A 3.0 3. 3 83 82 84 do... N A 73.7 73.4 B 3 . C o n s u m p t i o n , T r a d e , O r d e r s , a n d Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6. New orders, durable goods 7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars *8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods3 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5 *32. Vendor performance3 (§) Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles... 58. Index of consumer sentiment © 83.68 75.03 7 2.66 79.92 85.88 83.41 84.77 89.47 . L.L.L.. Bil. dol.. 34.04 36.32 35.45. 35.86 37.61 32.48 31.15 37.64 . L.L.L.. 28.13 31.63 33.15 32.16 34.04 33.28 29.45 33.26 .. L.L.L.. ..do... -0.33 1.55 2.88 2.86 1.81 -0.15 -1.80 3.98 ...do .... L.L.L. 313.34 291.76 291.76 296.41 305.06 299.27 301.08 305.06 . L,Lg,U.. Bil. dol., EOP , 41 44 52 52 52 45 37 52 ... L.L.L.. Percent . C,C,C. .. C,C,C. .. C,L,C. . C.L.U.. .. U.L.U. .. L,C,C. .. L,L,L. 355.99 159.08 147.9 87,298 Mil. dol 45,268 ....do 69.3 A.r., bil.dol 70.7 I Q 1966=100 dol do 1967 = 100 344.11 152.13 142.6 89,640 44,680 73.9 68.0 338.01 149.74 141.8 91,952 45,439 79.7 72.5 N 349.80 A 344.94 N 156.14 A 154.42 143.8 149.5 147.6 92,245 97,664 95,449 45,553 47,804 46,812 92.5 80.7 91.5 75.3 89.1 N A 364.43 N A 161.48 149.5 151.3 98,423 99,120 48,082 48,517 93.3 92.2 1.6 1.2 5.8 -1.05 0.6 0 5.5 5.0 -2.3 2.17 1.3 0 10.0 9.3 12.4 1.88 1.6 3 7.5 6.7 4.8 1.33 2.9 8 6 7 8 25 96 32 4.2 3.4 1.3 3.1 2.7 N A N A 1.2 0.7 0.9 2.1 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 3.9 N A N A 4.0 5.9 4.9 14.6 21.5 56 57 75 54 59 55 58 1.6 N A 12 13 4.7 -1.2 B 4 . Fixed Capital I n v e s t m e n t Formation of Business Enterprises: *12. Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment... *20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dollars 24. New orders, capital goods Indus., nondefense 27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars . L,L,L. 1967 = 100.... . L,L,L. Number . L.L.L.. Bil. dol L.L.L.. L,L,L.. L,L,L. ....do do 118.6 113.2 112.9 48,435 47,153 50,504 112.4 N A 114.2 N A 111.3 N A 115.0 N A 116.3 N A 3.3 N A 1.1 N A -0.4 N A 27.99 24.79 23.82 23.79 27.32 26.49 28.74 26.73 8.5 -7.0 -0.1 14.8 14.11 24.01 12.40 20.64 12.08 19.93 12.08 19.91 14.03 22.74 13.87 22.59 14.39 22.30 13.82 23.33 3.7 -1.3 -4.0 4.6 0. -0.1 16.1 14.2 12.38 10.62 10.41 10.43 12.08 12.20 11.67 12.38 -4.3 6.1 0.2 15.8 20 24 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data2 Unit of measure 1 Series title and timing classification Percent change Annual average 1981 1982 4th Q 1982 1st Q 1983 2dQ 1983 Apr. 1983 May 1983 June 1983 Apr. to May. 1983 May to June 1983 4th Q to 1st Q 1983 1st Q to 2dQ 1983 I. CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S — C o n . B4. Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t — C o n . Business Investment Commitments—Con.: 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Business expend., new plant and equipment 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equipment 86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started, total *29. New building permits, private housing 89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dollars B5. L,C,U... U,Lg,U... C,Lg,Lg... l.sq. ft Bil. dol Bil. dol., EOP . C,Lg,Lg... A.r., bil. dol.... do 1967=100.... A.r., bil. dol.... C,Lg,Lg... C,Lg,U... C,Lg,C... L,L,L... A.r., thousands. L,L,L... 1967=100 L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol 77.72 26.42 92. 74 57.38 21.16 70. 39 51.63 21.04 70. 39 59.10 20.96 69. 67 12.7 6.9 14.5 -0.4 -1. 0 N 312.41 306.91 A 148.5 147.0 148.6 161.8 N A 149.8 -1.8 1.1 NA 0.8 -0.7 -2.0 -0.4 2.9 1.2 69 76 86 1,747 142.2 19.5 6.4 -2.9 7.6 34.3 18.5 12 .1 -0.6 12.3 12.5 28 29 89 7. 3 10.9 54.32 61.20 NA NA 321 49 316 43 302 77 293 03 302 23 348.65 325.76 309.65 307.34 181.1 157.9 147.2 144.3 174.4 166.1 160. 5 159. 9 9 11 97 65.40 60.31 1,087 80.0 44. 7 1,061 80.7 37. 8 1,261 99.8 40.6 1,694 118.3 45. 5 1,684 132.8 51.2 8. 5 -9.4 -22. 7 -15.4 NA NA NA 3 1 -4. 5 1.77 -14.23 -15.74 -14.87 33.3 -14.2 -36.2 -34.9 0.03 -2.12 -1.83 0.83 2.0 NA NA 1,506 124.1 1,799 132.1 NA Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3 *36. Change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars (smoothed6)3 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories3 38. Change in materials on hand and on order3 Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories5 70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars5 65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods5 *77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, mfg. and trade3 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.5 B6. L,L,L... do L,L,L... L,L,L... L,L,L... ....do Bil. dol Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . Lg,Lg,Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do 526.15 511.94 511.94 503.22 269.42 261.21 261.21 257.57 89.55 85.07 85.07 82.41 -5.70 18.9 0.13 -1.50 20.3 1.34 NA NA NA 4.20 1.4 1.21 NA NA NA 0.87 1.3 2.66 NA NA NA 36 31 38 NA 504.80 506.49 NA 257.40 257.83 NA 82.04 82.12 NA NA NA 0.3 0.2 0.1 NA NA NA -1.7 -1.4 -3.1 NA NA NA 71 70 65 1.60 NA -0.05 NA -0.08 NA 77 NA 198.70 200.04 NA 0.7 NA 1.3 NA 78 2.07 251.5 1.36 3.20 250.5 0.94 2.73 -0.7 -0.66 -0.4 -0.42 2.90 4.2 1.38 -1.21 4.6 0.52 1941-43=10.., 128.04 119.71 136.71 147.65 162.73 157.71 164.10 166.39 4.1 1.4 8.0 10.2 1.68 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . 1.74 1.76 1.68 221.56 196.07 196.07 198.57 NA 1.65 Prices, C o s t s , a n d P r o f i t s Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (§) *99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3 L,L,L... Percent U,L,L... 1967=100... L,L,L... Percent Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © L,L,L... Profits and Profit Margins: 16. Corporate profits after taxes 18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars 79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj 80 do 1972 dollars 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.3 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol... L,L,L... ...do L,C,L... ...do L,C,L... do L,L,L... Cents L,L,L... 1977=100... 144.1 72.7 109.5 55.5 4.8 98.0 115.1 55.6 105.6 51.1 3.4 96.7 113.5 54.2 107.9 51.6 2.8 96. 7 108.2 51.7 120.3 57.5 3.3 97.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA -4.7 -4.6 11.5 11.4 0.5 0. 8 NA NA NA NA NA NA 16 18 79 80 15 26 Cash Flows: 34. Net cash flow, corporate 35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol... do L,L,L... 271.3 133. 3 267.3 125. 2 275.5 127.9 278.9 130. 3 NA NA 1.2 1. 9 NA NA 34 35 Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977=100... 143.1 153.1 154. 9 155.8 NA 0 6 NA 63 Lg,Lg,Lg Dollars 1. 302 1.397 1.419 1.428 NA 0. 6 NA 68 Lg.Lg.Lg....! Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1967 = 100... Percent 209.0 100.2 228.0 101.0 230.1 99.0 230.8 97.4 221.5 94.2 74.6 76.1 76.4 76.1 NA 0.52 0.81 0.95 197.9 789.8 0.69 0.73 0.86 198.5 813.9 1.07 0.73 0.75 202.0 829.3 1.34 0.95 -0.22 0.87 2.20 1.85 0.72 0.23 0.89 1.03 N A N A N A N A N A 209.3 213.5 210.7 214.1 215.6 872.3 885.2 880.3 884.6 890.7 6.870 1.418 6.711 1.373 6.566 1.354 6.468 1.301 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, private business sector 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfin. corporations 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing a) Actual data *b) Actual data as percent of trend 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income3 B7. do -0.38 242.5 -0.67 -0.15 231.1 -0.46 2.75 240.7 0.92 1.54 251.7 1.44 -0.66 253.2 2.02 228.3 95.1 227.4 94.2 226.7 93.3 -0.4 -0.9 1.13 -0.3 -0.9 0.3 -1.6 -0. 3 -1.4 -3.2 23 99 62 62 NA Money and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply (Ml) 3 102. Change in money supply (M2)3 104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed6)3 ' 105. Money supply ( M l ) , 1972 dollars •106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars Velocity of Money: 107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml) 3 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 3 . Credit 33. 112. 113. •111. 110. Lg,Lg,Lg....i -0.93 283.4 -0.58 Flows: Change in mortgage debt3 Change in business loans3 Change in consumer installment credit3 Change in credit outstanding3 Total private borrowing Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4) (§) 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.4)35 L,L,L.... do.. L,C,U.... do.. L,L,L... ...do.. L.L.L....I Bil. dol L,L,L... do.. ... C,C,C... Ratio ..C,Lg,C... .. L,L,L. . L.L.L.. j A.r., bil. dol... do do . L,L,L... A.r., percent.. .. L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol... L,L,L....| Mil. dol L,L,L....| Percent, EOP . 6.480 1.296 1.297 1.298 1.293 2.42 -1.33 0.80 -0.14 N A N A 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.27 -0.39 1.12 -1.13 N A N A 3.6 2.0 5.2 1.5 -0.098 0.012 0.001 -0.005 -0.053 -0.005 85 102 104 105 106 107 108 39.91 -7.01 -34.90 1.56 36.30 16.79 -41.84 12.50 18.14 13.04 16.55 24.17 7.1 1.4 -5.9 1.9 319.58 279.48 282.36 310.37 NA -0.47 -44.76 NA -32.62 -48.18 NA 27.25 32.35 NA -0.6 -5.1 NA NA -44.29 NA -15.56 NA 5.10 NA -4.5 NA NA NA NA 36.46 54.34 7.62 7.8 9 9 NA NA NA NA NA 33 112 113 111 110 579.60 2.37 NA NA NA NA NA NA N A -0.04 NA NA 14 39 N A 2.18 N A 2.18 N A 2.22 NA NA NA NA NA NA Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data2 Unit of measure 1 Series title and timing classification Percent change Apr. Annual average 1981 1982 4th Q 1982 1st Q 1983 2dQ 1983 May 4th Q May. 1983 June 1983 1st Q 1983 1st Q Apr. 1983 May 1983 -453 -1,073 1,716 902 -64 -91 620 814 22 59 517 568 93 94 -0.17 -0.06 -0.34 0.02 0.06 -0.09 0.35 0.63 0.66 0.43 0.41 0.55 -0.64 0.15 -0.23 0.10 -0.47 -0.14 -1.06 -1.08 0.15 0.34 -0.42 -0.09 -0.20 -0.11 0.10 -0.38 119 114 116 115 117 118 67 109 June 1983 to 2dQ 1983 I. CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S — C o n . B7. M o n e y a n d C r e d i t — C o n . Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves (inverted4)3 ® 94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve3 (g) Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds rate 3 ® 114. Treasury bill rate 3 ® 116. Corporate bond yields 3 ® 115. Treasury bond yields 3 ® 117. Municipal bond yields 3 ® 118. Mortgage yields, residential3 ® 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3 ® *109. Average prime rate charged by banks3 ® Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit5 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding *101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, 1972 dollars *95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income3 L,U,U.... Mil. dol do L,Lg,U.... L,Lg,Lg.... Percent do... C,Lg,Lg.... do.. Lg,Lg,Lg.... do... C.Lg.Lg.... do... U.Lg.U-do... Lg.Lg.Lg.... do... Lg,Lg,Lg-••• ...do... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol do Lg,Lg,Lg-Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent -1,051 1,359 -692 1,052 -142 577 -164 636 -681 1,204 -517 993 16.38 14.08 15.48 12.87 11.33 16.31 19. 56 18.87 12.26 10.72 14.68 12.23 11.66 15.30 14. 69 14.86 9.29 7.93 12.22 10.34 9.90 12.87 11.26 11.96 8.65 8.08 11.99 10.44 9.43 12.73 10. 20 10.88 8.80 8.42 11.57 10.35 9.23 12.62 10. 30 10.50 8.80 8.25 11.58 10.19 9.05 12.50 8.63 8.19 11.24 10.21 9.11 12.41 8.98 8.82 11.90 10.64 9.52 12.96 10.50 10.50 10.50 326.27 339.32 339.32 345.36 227.06 266.42 268.83 266.15 NA 347.63 350.32 NA 263.88 259.87 NA NA 0.8 -1.5 NA NA 1.8 -1.0 NA NA 66 72 92.14 106.02 106.64 105.52 12.92 12.81 12.92 13.16 NA 104.47 102.59 NA 12.92 12.88 NA NA -1.8 -0.04 NA NA -1.1 0.11 NA NA 101 95 0. 0. II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity B l . Price M o v e m e n t s 310. 320. 320c. 322. 330. 335. 331. 332. 333. 334. Implicit price deflator, GNP Consumer price index (CPI), all items ® Change in CPI, all items, S/A3 CPI, food Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ® PPI, industrial commodities © PPI, crude materials PPI, intermediate materials PPI, capital equipment PPI, finished consumer goods 1972=100.... 1967=100.... Percent 1967 = 100.... do ...do ..do... ..do... ..do... ...do.., 195.1 272.4 0.7 274.6 293.4 304.1 329.0 306.0 264.3 271.3 206.9 289.1 0.3 285.7 299.3 312.3 319.5 310.4 279.6 280.9 210.0 293.4 0. 288.1 300.3 314.8 316.1 311.5 283.2 285.9 212 .8 293.2 0. 288.9 300.4 313.7 317.3 309.4 285.2 282.8 215.2 296.9 0.4 291.6 301.7 313.9 323.8 309.3 286.6 283.1 295.5 0.6 291.3 300.8 312.6 323.9 307.6 285.9 282.0 297.1 0.5 292.2 301.7 313.8 323.9 308.9 286.6 282.9 298.1 0.2 291.3 302.5 315.4 323.5 311.4 287.3 284.4 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0. 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.2 0.5 1.3 -0.1 0. 0.3 0. -0.3 0.4 -0.7 0.7 -1.1 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.0 0. 0.5 0.1 310 320 320 322 330 335 331 332 333 334 1977 = 100... 138.9 148.3 151.2 153.2 154.5 154.0 154.6 154.8 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.8 340 ...do 92.6 143. 3 95. 5 100. 7 99.9 93.3 153. 6 96. 5 101.0 99.9 93.5 157. 0 97.0 102. 0 100.4 95.0 159. 3 98. 5 102.6 101.6 94.7 NA NA NA NA 94.8 94.7 94.7 -0.1 0. 1.6 1. 5 1. 5 0.6 1 2 -0.3 NA NA NA NA 341 345 346 370 358 108.67 110.20 110.97 110.53 111.16 110.79 110.75 111.93 100.40 99.53 99.14 99.09 99.93 99.46 99.56 100.79 8,273 10,678 11,839 11,439 11,222 11,328 11,192 11,146 5,089 5,829 5,642 5,532 5, 702 5,605 5,288 3,615 3,961 3,926 3,777 3,729 3,744 3,859 2,895 3,613 1,999 1,977 2,049 1,871 1,913 1,897 1,843 1,763 6,795 9,006 10,118 9,811 9,478 9,702 9,438 9,294 0. 0.1 -1.2 -1.7 0.4 -2.8 -2.7 1.1 1.2 -0.4 -5.7 3.1 8.5 -1.5 -0.4 -0.1 -3.4 -3.2 -0.9 -8.7 -3.0 0.6 0.8 -1.9 -1.9 -3.8 2.2 -3.4 441 442 37 444 445 446 447 0. -0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.4 3.2 -0.7 0. -1.1 0.3 0. 0.4 451 452 453 24.9 1.7 -1. 7 7. 5 2.4 0.8 NA NA 1.1 NA NA 1.0 500 501 502 510 511 512 B2. Wages a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y 340. Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy 341. Real average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business 370. Output per hour, private business sector 358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector ....do do ....do C. L a b o r F o r c e , E m p l o y m e n t , a n d Unemployment 441. 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. 447. Labor 451. 452. 453. Total civilian labor force Total civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Unemployed males, 20 years and over Unemployed females, 20 years and over Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age Number unemployed, full-time workers Force Participation Rates: Males, 20 years and over3 Females, 20 years and over3 Both sexes, 16-19 years of age3 Dl. 500. 501. 502. 510. 511. 512. Millions ....do Thousands... ....do ....do ....do ....do Percent ....do.. 78.7 52.7 54.1 78.8 52.9 54.1 78.1 52.9 53.0 78.4 52.9 53.4 -62.2 -147.1 -208.2 -183.3 627.0 617.4 612.6 623.3 689.2 764.4 820. 9 806. 6 31.3 32. 9 35. 3 40.4 418.1 439.1 450.7 461.7 382.7 407.8 417.8 421.3 NA NA 815.2 NA NA 425.7 79.0 52.1 55.4 78.3 52.8 52.6 78.3 52.7 52.2 78.6 53.1 55.4 D. G o v e r n m e n t A c t i v i t i e s Receipts a n d E x p e n d i t u r e s Federal Government surplus or deficit3 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit3 State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures A.r., bil. dol.. dodo.. do do do D2. Defense I n d i c a t o r s 517. 525. 548. 557. 570. 564. Defense Department obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards New orders, defense products Output of defense and space equipment Employment in defense products industries National defense purchases Mil. dol ....do.... do 1967 = 100... Thousands A.r., bil. dol... 15,945 18,908 19,824 20,429 8,065 10,718 10,977 12,434 4,917 6,246 7,497 7,152 102.7 109.3 113.8 116.5 1,392 1,371 1,362 1,356 154. 0 179.4 190.8 194.4 NA 19,332 19,554 NA 10,132 10,111 6,788 7,079 4,782 119.0 118.2 118.7 N A 1,358 1,361 201.9 NA NA 8,502 120.0 NA 1.1 -0.2 -32.4 0.4 0.2 NA NA 77.8 1.1 NA 3.1 13.3 -4.6 2.4 -0.4 NA NA -5.1 2.1 N A 3.9 517 525 548 557 570 564 19,456 17,694 16,290 16,824 3,608 3,053 2,700 2,975 4,456 4,007 3,745 3,501 21,751 20,329 19,684 19,520 6,319 4,964 4,961 3,429 2,190 2,442 2,254 2,675 NA 16,074 15,566 NA 2,891 2,715 NA 3, 513 3,433 NA 19,771 21,514 NA 3,252 5,284 NA 2,746 3,001 NA NA NA NA NA NA -3.2 -6.1 -2.3 8.8 62.5 9.3 NA NA NA NA NA NA 3.3 10.2 -6.5 -0.8 -30.9 18.7 N A NA NA NA NA NA 602 604 606 612 614 616 E. U.S. I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a n s a c t i o n s E l . Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614. 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports, total Imports of petroleum and products Imports of automobiles and parts Mil. < ..do... ...do.., ...do... Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data 2 Percent change Unit Series title Annual averag of measure 1980 1981 1982 1st Q 1982 3d Q 4th Q 1st Q 1982 2d Q 1982 1982 1983 2d Q 1983 3dQ to 4th Q 1982 4th Q to 1st Q 1983 1st Q to 2dQ 1983 £ I II OTHER I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C MEASURES—Con. E2. Goods and Services M o v e m e n t s Except Transfers Under Military Grants Balance on goods 3nd services3 Fxoorts of Mods and services Imports of goods and services Merchandise trade balance3 Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Income on US investments abroad Income on foreign investments in the U S 667 668 669 622 618 620 651 652 Bil. dol d o do. . ..do do do do do 1.87 85.52 83.65 -6.39 56.06 62.44 18.11 10.72 2.88 93.66 90.78 -7.02 59.25 66.27 21.56 13.19 -0.80 87.08 87.88 -9.10 52.80 61.90 21.04 14.21 89.76 87.14 -6.10 55.64 61.74 20.76 13.82 2631.7 1475.0 6,478 1479.4 1828.9 1021.6 4,487 2954.1 1513.8 6, 584 1505.3 2047.6 1054.7 4,587 3073.0 1485.4 6,399 1494.8 2176.5 1060.2 4,567 3021.4 1485.8 6,424 1495.9 2127.9 1055.1 4,562 2.62 3.24 -4.85 -4.19 90.79 86.93 80.84 87.55 91.79 85.03 -5.85 -13.08 -11.35 55.00 52.24 48.34 60.85 65.32 59.70 22.32 21.57 19.50 14.78 14.75 13.49 -1.48 81.17 82.65 -8.74 49.56 58.30 17.81 12.58 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3090.7 1485.7 6,393 1487.0 2191.5 1059.3 4,558 3171.5 1490.1 6,382 1505.5 2255.9 1073.8 4,599 3273.7 2.71 0.4 -2.8 2.61 2.5 -2.3 -8.7 -6.7 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 622 618 620 651 652 2.0 0.6 3.2 2.1 200 50 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.9 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.5 217 213 224 225 227 1.9 0.9 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.4 2.3 0.5 1.3 0.7 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.3 3.8 2.4 7.6 7.3 2.9 1.5 3.5 1.7 230 231 232 233 236 238 237 239 11.7 9.7 4.2 3.7 28.8 10.9 240 241 242 243 245 30 0.9 260 261 262 263 266 267 0.66 -7.0 -7.4 1.73 -7.5 -8.6 -9.6 -8.5 667 668 669 A. N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d P r o d u c t A l . G N P and Personal Income 200. 50 217 213 224 225 227. GNP, current dollars GNP 1972 dollars Per capita GNP 1972 dollars Final sales 1972 dollars Disposable personal income current dollars Disposable personal income 1972 dollars Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars 230. 231. 232. 233. 236. 238. 237. 239. Total, current dollars Total, 1972 dollars Durable goods, current dollars Durable goods, 1972 dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars Services, current dollars Services, 1972 dollars 240. 241 242. 243. 245. 30. Total, current dollars Total, 1972 dollars Total fixed investment, current dollars Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars Change in business inventories, current dollars3 Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3 A2. A3. do do A.r., dollars do do do do do do do 3109.6 1480.7 6,355 1503.4 2227.8 1066.1 4, 576 1521.4 6,502 1525.9 2302.8 1081.6 4,623 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 1668.1 1857.2 1991.9 1938.9 1972.8 2008.8 2046.9 2073.0 2151.3 931.8 956.8 970.2 961.4 968.8 971.0 979.6 986.7 1010.5 214.7 236.1 244.5 239.4 242.9 243.4 252.1 258.5 278.1 137.5 141.2 139.8 138.5 139.5 138.2 143.2 145.8 156.4 668.8 733.9 761.0 749.7 754.7 766.6 773.0 777 .1 799.8 355.6 362.5 364.2 362.6 363.5 364.7 366.0 368.9 374.3 784.5 887.1 986.4 949.7 975.2 998.9 1021.8 1037.4 1073.4 438.8 453.1 466.2 460.4 465.7 468.2 470.4 472.0 479.8 do do do do do do 401.9 208.5 411.7 212.9 -9.8 -9.8 474.9 227.6 456.5 219.1 18.5 18.5 414.5 194.5 439.1 203.9 -24.5 -24.5 422.9 199.7 448.6 209.9 -25.7 -10.2 432.5 201.4 443.7 204.9 -11.2 -3.4 425.3 198.4 430.2 199.8 -4.9 -1.3 377.4 178.4 433.8 201.1 -56.4 -22.7 404.1 190.0 443.5 205.4 -39.4 -15.4 451.5 208.5 462.1 213.0 -10.6 -4.5 -11.3 -10.1 0.8 0.7 -51.5 -21.4 7.1 6.5 2.2 2.1 17.0 7.3 537.8 284.3 197.0 106.4 340.8 177.9 595.7 286.5 229.2 110.4 366.5 176.1 649.2 291.8 258.7 116.6 390.5 175.2 629.8 289.4 249.7 114.5 380.0 174.9 631.6 285.8 244.1 110.3 387.5 175.4 655.7 292.2 261.7 116.9 394.0 175.3 679.7 299.7 279.2 124.4 400.5 175.2 677.4 292.9 273.5 118.4 404.0 174.5 683.3 292.2 274.8 118.2 408.6 174.0 3.7 2.6 6.7 6.4 1.6 -0.1 -0.3 -2.3 -2.0 -4.8 0.9 -0.4 23.9 50.3 338.8 159.1 314.8 108.8 26.3 43.0 368.8 159.7 342.5 116.7 17.4 28.9 347.6 147.3 330.2 118.4 29.9 35.2 358.4 151.8 328.5 116.6 33.3 33.4 364.5 154.5 331.2 121.1 0.9 24.0 346.0 146.4 345.0 122.4 5.6 23.0 321.6 136.5 316.1 113.5 17.0 20.5 326.9 137.3 309.9 116.8 -12.5 10.2 321.7 134.2 334.3 124.0 4.7 -1.0 -7.1 -6.8 -8.4 -7.3 11.4 -2.5 1.6 0.6 -2.0 2.9 -29.5 -10.3 -1.6 -2.3 7.9 6.2 NA 2116.6 2373.0 2450.4 2419.7 2448.9 2458.9 2474.0 2528.5 1599.6 1769.2 1865.7 1834.2 1859.9 1879.5 1889.0 1923.7 1969.9 117.4 120.2 109.0 111.2 104.9 103.6 116.2 120.6 130.1 54.8 49.9 47.4 50.9 54.1 31.5 41.4 49.0 52.3 NA 175.4 192.3 164.8 162.0 166.8 168.5 161.9 181.8 192.6 249.9 261.1 265.0 268.3 2 56.4 254.7 248.3 244.4 0.6 0.5 12.2 2.8 -3.9 -0.7 2.2 1.8 3.8 3.4 12.3 -2.5 NA 2.4 7.9 1.3 NA -1.6 220 280 282 284 286 288 -11.7 1.0 -1.8 -48.3 -0.2 13.4 3.4 NA NA 290 295 292 298 293 Government Purchases of G o o d s a n d Services d o d o .. .do do do d o -0.2 0.5 -0.2 1.1 -0.3 Foreign T r a d e Net exports of goods and services current dollars3 Net exports of goods and services 1972 dollars3 Exports of goods and services current dollars Exports of goods and services 1972 dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars do d o ....do.. . . do do do 250 255 252 256 253 257 National I n c o m e a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s 220. 280. 282. 284. 286. 288. National income Compensation of employees Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Net interest 290 295 292 298 Gross saving (private and government) Business saving Personal saving Government surplus or deficit3 A7. do do do do do do Saving do do do d o 293. Personal saving rate 3 Percent 405.9 325.2 110.2 -30.7 6.0 483.8 405.8 374.4 396.2 135.3 125.4 -26.9 -115.8 5.8 6.6 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by < § ) , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk ( * ) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 1 3070.2 1489.3 6,425 1492.7 2159.0 1060.2 4, 574 Gross Private D o m e s t i c I n v e s t m e n t A5. A6. Ar., bil. dol A r, bil dol Total current dollars Total 1972 dollars Federal Government current dollars Federal Government 1972 dollars State and local governments current dollars State and local governments 1972 dollars 250 255 252 256 253. 257. . . do. . . . Ar. dollars Personal Consumption Expenditures A4. 260 261 262 263 266 267 A.r., bil.dol The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified. 434.4 383.3 130.8 -79.7 6.1 2 439.5 397.9 351.3 398.5 393.6 401.9 405.8 419.7 127.1 123.0 120.8 121.7 -81.2 -127.0 -175.3 -142.9 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.4 NA NA 89.4 NA 3.9 0.7 32.4 0. -26.5 NA -1.5 For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 3 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. 5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart A l . Composite Indexes July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T dex of 6 lagging indicators eries 62, 7 7 , 9 1 , 9 5 , 1 0 1 , 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 10 JULY 1983 BCIfr CYCLICAL INDICATORS |A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued Nov. Oct P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 13. Marginal employment 914 Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29) and purchasing (series 8,32, 916. Profitability (series 19, W, 80 financial tews (series 104,106, 111) Ratio, coincident index to lagging 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. ItCII JULY 1983 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components Jan. July July Nov. P T P T Contracts anc orders for plant and equipment, 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 11 ?3 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66. 12 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July July Apr. Feb. P P T T P Nov. T ivate housing units (index: 1967 LLl credit outstanding—business 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 7 , 6 8 , 6 9 , 7 1 , and 72. IICII JULY 1983 13 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components Nov. Oct. P T 1948 49 July May P T 50 51 52 53 54 Aug. Apr. P T 55 56 57 58 Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb P T 59 60 6 1 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 Nov. P 72 73 74 Mar. T 75 Jan. July July PT P 76 77 78 79 80 81 Nov. T 821983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65. 14 JULY 1983 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components July May P T Nov. Oct. P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb PT Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 109,lAverage prime rate charged by 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73. BCII JULY 1983 1 5 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment Aug. Apr. P Apr. Feb. T P Dec. Nov P T T | 1 Average workweek, i Jan. July P T July Nov. P T i workers. '^ ,'>'v* *V'* ; ^ 21. Average weekly overtime hours, I (hem) 4- 5. Average we»Hy initial claim, State i 3J -iiverted scale) 200 T 300- 400- 1-1 23- lOOwnplpyees) 24'"—•(',-••' 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 . 1 6 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued 48. Employee-hours in (ami* rate, bit. 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62. JULY 1983 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Jan. July P T Nov. T July P Nov. T civilian employment to 37. Number unemployed, total ( n * l i - m v e r t e d 43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment 91. Average duration of unemployment 44. Unemployment rate, persons 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 -inverted scale) 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for 18 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income Aug. Apr. P Dec. Nov. Apr. Feb, T P P T T 50. GNP m 1972 tfefers, Q (ann. 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. BCII JULY 1983 1 9 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued Aug. Apr. P T 1956 57 58 Apr. Feb P T 59 60 Dec. Nov. P T 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Jan. July P T 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 July P Nov. T 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Apr. Feb. P T Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T July Nov. P T lOO-i 9080706050- 40- 30- 454035- 25 «J 25. Change in unfilled orders, (bil. do!.; MCD moving +4+ 2- -2- -4. 380340300260220- Sro* Manufacturers urtiwes orders* 180- 140- 100- 60- 100755025- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. JULY 1983 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued Aug. Apr. P Apr. Feb. T P Dec. Nov. P T T 56, Manufacturing and trade sales of retail starts in 1972 ddte* <M. « . ) X KOI 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 2 2 JULY 1983 ItCII CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment Aug. Apr. P T Apr, Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. Mar. P T 160 140120 • 100' 65554535- 25 35 302520' — 3025- §'• 20- 15- ?" * mmmm 10- 5- 100-1 90 8070 60504030-J 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. JULY 1983 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb P T July P Nov. T 97. Backlog of capital (HIM) and equipment truction expenditu 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 JULY 1983 ItCI* CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T July Nov. P T fixed investment in 1072 dollars, Q (ann. 89. Residential fixed (ann. rate, bil. dol 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. ItCII JULY 1983 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 30. Change in business inventories, 36. Net change in inventories on hand and < m rate,fail,dol.; moving avg.-~4- ilv - Change in boot value, mamifactaring and !ol;MC& (ann. rate, bii. dot; MCD moving avg. 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 600-1 550500 450400 350 300250- and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bil. dol 200' 150-1 100-1 90807060- $5, Book value of of finished goods mm 50- mmm 40- 30- mmm E 77. Ratio, constant-dollar dJ(fc) 20- 1.91.81.71.6- •HMIMii 1.5260 240220 200180160140 120- 78. Stocks of materials arid supplies on manufacturing (bl. M ) 10080- 60- 40 • 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. BCII JULY 1983 2 7 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P Jan. July T i P T July P Nov. T . NHe CommodfiE ! l l 98. Change in producer prices (percent; MCPmoviig avg.~6- sensitive ^li 1 i iiiim 99. Chanie bi $entitt¥« i M * HSHHi. #4%!M aPii^S^iliifMPI^^iWf1^!!!!! 23. Spot market prices, raw Mashfrt? ( * i m t 6 7 - i » ) V 180' 140- t 100' 8060 KII^^^KIilffl 100- IS. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 s 60^\^^^r^ "AH 16. Corporate profits after taxes, H i n t dollars, Q (mriHpML*l.y. 20- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 78 79 80 81 82 1983 "This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 'Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 28 JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Jan. July P T Nov. T July P Nov. T ill 79* Corporate profits after taxes current dollars, Q (ann. 35. Net cash flow, corporate, in (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 34. Net cash flow (ann. rate, 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. ItCII JULY 1983 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T fit labor cost per unit of output, 64. Coti^emation i f eniployees as a percent of 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 30 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Aug. Apr. P Apr. Feb. T Dec. Nov. P T P T in total Squid assets (percent; moving Money supply-Ml-in 1972 doitan ( M . do).) 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 l This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 . BCII JULY 1983 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb P T Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 112. Change m business loans (ann. rate, bil. MCD rnoving avg.-6.tefm) 11 H* f ^itwi ifnil 'ff^Jttl 3f 110.- Total private bcfiwrf, Q ( 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 32 JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T 111 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over cale) 94. Member bank the Federal Reserve ( f'v 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. BCD JULY 1983 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Aug. Apr. P T 1956 57 58 Apr. Feb P T 59 60 Dec. P 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 Jan. July P T Nov. T 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 July P Nov. T 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 3 4 JULY 1983 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 67. Bank rates on short-term business 72. Commercial and dollars (bi. del.) 95. Ratio, consumer Current data for these series are shown on page 73. ItCII JULY 1983 3 5 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T |-mo. span—, 1 950. Twelve leading indicator c 50- to (6-mo. span* . S|Nft~-4 I1 |> f ,^:"? 50- '*-' V *- -' '-'I ' ; ^*'' ''• #**r^ti*laffffiflffir 50- 20 Industrie: , span—, 1-mo. span- 50- I 3MWu 4w*w& < , span—, 1-mo. span- 50- 5 industries (6 50- i • / 'J5. - Y*§::7^A v%:<-^:ff/^figl ' ; : ^ oJ 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 JULY 1983 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued IOO-I 50- 0- 90705030- 100- 50- 0- 100- 50- 0- 100- 50- 0- 90705030- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. BCII JULY 1983 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued Jan. July P T Jan. July P T July P July P I Percent i expenditures for new | - 2 2 industries I expenditures r 50" ; ^ - ( b ) Later anticipatlon| 1 tual expenditures / I !%!% t*rn1 I »\ -•-iiHr-irl If 1 (e) 97 Ofders, maiwfacteing (4-(j J J f 972. ofrts, manufacturing andtrj } ! 2m%, fiiaiWraClUfSlg ii ij andtrd -r mo--- ™ lift—H d 1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 81 82 1983 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. ItCII JULY 1983 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income Aug. Apr. P 1956 57 Apr. Feb. T 58 P 59 60 Jan. July July Nov. P T P T T 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 4 0 JULY 1983 BCD OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Aug. Apr. P T 1956 57 58 Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb. P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 . JULY 1983 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Aug. Apr. P T 1956 57 58 Apr. Feb. P T 59 60 Dec. P 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 Jan. July P T Nov. T 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 July P Nov. T 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . 42 JULY 1983 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. Mar. P T Jan. July P T July P 800700600500400- 300- 200- 100- Annual rate, billion dolla«[197i 350300250200- 150- 100- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . ItCII JULY 1983 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Jan. July P T ,— July P Nov. T i 440 T •I -111 ,,... lir. . ,, . „ &Wf „• —yi-i r 1S 252. Exports of | |fff] [services, Q- |— 1' i \ 250. II 80- ; of goods ami! 256. Exports of | 100- 8060- 255, 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 JULY 1983 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb. P T July P Nov. T st* profits with inventory valuation and income with inventory valuation and consumption adjustments, Q 20- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. BCII JULY 1983 4 5 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Aug. Apr. P T 1956 57 58 59 60 61 Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb. P T 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 July P Nov. T 81 8 2 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 JULY 1983 IICII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A | NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 70- 65- 6020 T purchases of goods and $trvfca$, 9 10248. Nonresidential fixed fixed investment, Q 0247* Change in business inventories, Q -5-" 64, Compensation 75- 70- 65 J with inventory valuation tion adjustments, Q 10- 289. Net interest, 5- income of persons with capital consumption 01 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. ItCII JULY 1983 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart B l . Price Movements Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T 1 ilifiii Index:! •iliiB Nov. P T 1; Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T •HI in • •1 i• 1 i1 • leflator, GNP, Q viiililill liilili July P =5 310c. Implicit GNP(1-Q " Producer pric 180160 140 200- iiiiils I price index, ••,iiiiii#0 ^ .llipwl * ; Index: 1 1if ffl 180- J ml +10- 340' 320 300' 280' 260' 380-1 360340320300280260240- 1331, I equpni X 334, Finished consumeri 1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 320c. M t l $ M l | H p W ! span) C h a r t B 2 . Wages a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y 341. J40. Real average workers, private Average hourly earnings of production private nonfarrn economy (current dollars)1 346. Real average hourly noiifarm business compensation, all sector, Q (current 1956 57 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. JULY 1983 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T Nov. Mar. P T July P iinavera +5- ri-J," 340c. • - • • • • . • • • -j Real esrtiii?I a 1 ibusines Current-dollar. • ;1 + 5- i cortract. tivity] 358. 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 5 0 JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb P T Dec. Nov. P T participation rates (percent)— 44$, Females 20 years and over 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. ItCII JULY 1983 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures Aug. Apr. P T 1956 57 58 in. July P T Apr. Feb. P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 July P Nov. T 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 JULY 1983 Bill OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 3026221814- 10- 20-i 1816141210- 6- 4- 15013011090- 70- 50- 1110987654- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. JULY 1983 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I£) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Aug. Apr. P T 1956 57 58 Apr. Feb. P T 59 60 61 Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . 5 4 JULY 1983 RCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Aug. Apr. P Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb. T P T 1.81.61.41.21.0- 3.53.02.52.0- 1.5- 1.0- 0.5 J 220-i 200180160140120100- 564. Federal Government defense, Q ( 8060- 40 J 10-I 9876541956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . ItCII JULY 1983 5 5 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart E l . Merchandise Trade Apr. Feb. P T Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T July P Nov. T 12- 602. Exports, excluding i mmm 606. Exports of nonelectrical r General imports (b«. dol.; MCD moving a v g . § | | e m ) I petroleum | 9HHN1K 616. Imports of automobiles; \m 0.6- 1 Nilll 0.4- 0.2 J 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 JULY 1983 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T 622. 58 59 60 61 62 Nov. T 81 82 1983 Merchandise trade balance, Q 651. 1956 57 July P 63 Income on U.S. investments 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960. Current data for these series are shown on page 93. BCII JULY 1983 5 7 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart F l . Industrial Production Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T I Index: 1967 = 100 280-1 260240220200180160140120- Industrial production— 721 Japan-^ 721. OECD European countries 100- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 5 8 JULY 1983 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F3. Stock Prices Chart F2. Consumer Prices Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T [Percent change at annual rate) July P Nov. P Nov. T Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T 1 Index: 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 [6-month spans] Stock prices- Consumer prices— 19. -20-1 200" 180160140- United States 320c. United S t a t e s ^ 120100- XT- +10- 80 J 600- 748. r Japan U. 400300- 7 200- 745. ii 500- i i i ii ii in. West Germany 180- 160-J in. 140^ i-20-i dfS 735c* West Germany fr— 120 \ 100 J 1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983 Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. BCII JULY 1983 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Q 910. Index of 12 leading indicators (series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) 930. Index of 6 lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (1967 = 100) Year and month 920. Index of 4 roughly coincident indicators (series 41, 47, 51, 57) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index (1967 = 100) COMPOSITE INDEXES Leading indicator subgroups 913. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5) 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 915. Inventory 916. Profitinvestment ability (series and purchasing 19, 26, 80) (series 8, 32, 36, 99) (1967 = 100) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 111) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) C) 1981 January February March 142.1 140.4 141.7 146.8 147.2 147.2 121.7 120.7 119.0 120.6 122.0 123.7 94.2 94.1 94.1 110.7 109.3 109.8 100.5 100.5 100.7 98.2 98.8 99.0 122.2 122.1 122.2 April May . June 144.6 144.5 143.2 147.1 146.9 147.5 119.0 122.2 122.4 123.6 120.2 120.5 94.9 94.2 94.5 110.5 109.3 107,3 101.8 102.5 102.6 98.7 98.1 98.4 123.5 123.2 123.1 July August September 142.9 142.4 139.3 147.6 147.3 146.5 122.5 123.3 124.7 120.5 119.5 117.5 95.0 93.6 91.4 107.1 107.0 106,3 102.6 102.1 101.2 98.2 98.5 96.9 123.3 123.8 122.9 October November December 136.9 ' 137.0 136.2 144.5 143.0 140.9 125.0 124.5 124.4 115.6 114.9 113.3 90.5 90.3 89.3 104.3 105.4 105.1 99.8 98.7 97.8 96.9 97.1 96.2 121.7 122.2 122.2 135.1 135.7 134.7 138.4 139.9 139.2 126.1 125.3 125.1 109.8 111.7 111.3 (NA) 104.2 104.2 104.0 96.7 96.5 96.6 94.5 93.2 92.6 123.3 122.1 122.2 136.0 136.2 135.5 138.0 138.8 137.3 125.9 125.1 124.8 109.6 111.0 110.0 104.9 104.2 102.9 96.4 97.1 97.6 93.1 93.0 92.4 123.0 122.4 122.2 July August September rl36.2 rl36.2 rl37.6 136.4 rl35.1 134.5 rl24.3 rl22.4 rl21.4 rlO9.7 rll0.4 rll0.8 103.9 rl03.0 rlO3.5 97.8 r98.1 r98.3 r92.8 r94.3 r92.6 122.5 124.5 124.2 October November December rl38.6 rl39.4 rl40.9 rl32.7 rl32.6 rl32.6 120.5 rll8.3 rll6.7 rllO.l 112.1 113.6 rlO4.6 rlO5.3 rlO6.9 r98.0 r97.0 r96.4 r95.4 r96.0 r97.0 122.7 122.5 122.4 r145.1 rl47.6 150.5 rl34.3 rl33.6 rl34.7 rll5.7 rll5.5 rll4.2 rll6.1 rll5.7 r118.0 rlO6.2 106.9 rl07.0 r97.7 r99.3 101.3 r98.3 [H>r99.4 (NA) rl27.2 rl29.7 E>rl30.2 rl52.4 154.3 B) 155.9 rl35.7 138.0 [H>M39.1 rll3.3 rll9.8 H>rl24.4 rlO7.5 rlO9.3 H> pHO.O rlO1.8 (H>rlO2.3 plOl.6 1982 2 January February March April May June 1983 January February March April May June 3 110.9 (NA) rl29.8 rl29.5 (NA) July . . . . , August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 1 1 . x See "New Includes Excludes ^Excludes 2 3 Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the February 1982 issue. a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1982 issue. series 36 and 111, for which data are not available. series 57, for which data are not available. 60 JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q j Minor Economic Process Timing Class L, L, L L, L, L L.C.L 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing 21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (Hours) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) L.C.L L, L, L 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurancel 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Thous.) C2) 1981 Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies Marginal Employment Adjustments (Hours) Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (Per 100 employees) L, Lg, U 4. Quit rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons unemployed 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers 48. Employeehours in nonagricultural establishments (Ratio) (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, bil. hours) C2) C2) U, C, C Revised 3 January February March 40.3 39.8 39.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 424 410 413 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.474 0.478 0.467 128 129 125 171.56 170.07 170.79 April May . June . 40.0 40.2 40.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.4 395 401 405 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.447 0.432 0.448 118 118 121 169.70 170.70 170.94 July August September 39.9 39.9 39.5 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 395 421 483 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.466 0.440 0.403 123 119 112 171.19 171.09 167.31 October November December 39.6 39.4 39.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.9 3,1 2.7 517 539 551 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.378 0.366 0.346 110 111 109 169.68 168.66 168.58 January . . February . . . March . . . 37.5 39.5 39.0 2.3 2.5 2.3 (NA) 563 514 566 (NA) (NA) 0.338 0.317 0.289 106 103 96 164.25 168.40 167.74 April . . . . May . June 39.0 39.1 39.1 2.4 2.3 2.3 566 585 551 0.255 0.249 0.242 88 87 85 167.21 167.61 166.58 July August September 39.1 39.0 38.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 533 605 653 0.228 0.212 0.192 83 78 73 166.05 165.46 165.30 October . . November December 38.9 39.0 39.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 651 616 531 0.195 0.195 0.205 76 78 83 164.29 163.24 164.01 39.7 39.2 39.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 507 478 479 0.216 0.215 0.217 83 83 83 165.78 163.53 164.44 40.1 r39.9 2.9 2.7 470 453 81 r87 166.12 166.97 E>P40.1 B>p2.9 H>406 E)p92 H>P167.31 1982 1983 -January February March . . . April May June 0.213 rO.231 DP0.246 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. x Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" (item 2) on page iii of the February 1982 issue. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1983 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued Comprehensive Employment—Continued Timing Class U, Lg, U U, C, C C C, C 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey 41. Employees on nonagncultural payrolls, establishment survey 40. Employees in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (Thous.) Year and month L, C, U Comprehensive Unemployment (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) L, Lg, U L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey 43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs * 91. Average duration of unemployment 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Weeks) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 1981 January February March . 96,544 96,803 97,148 90,920 90,990 91,030 25,600 25,516 25,579 58.38 58.43 58.58 8,048 8,032 7,967 7.5 7.4 7.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 14.3 14.0 13.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 April May . . June 97,487 97,597 97,033 91,128 91,131 91,322 25,530 25,503 25,654 58.80 58.72 58.31 7,860 8,133 8,047 7.2 7.5 7.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 13.7 13.5 14.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 97,428 97,313 96,746 91,484 91,424 91,411 25,720 25,653 25,586 58.44 58.36 57.94 7,854 8,053 8,271 7.2 7.4 7.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 14.0 14.3 13.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 96,981 96,840 96,458 91,295 91,041 90,730 25,445 25,242 24,992 58.02 57.88 57.51 8,673 9,025 9,389 8.0 8.3 8.6 3.5 3.8 4.1 13.5 13.2 12.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 96,309 96,328 96,230 90,396 90,417 90,207 24,711 24,670 24,483 57.46 57.41 57.29 9,346 9,669 9,881 8.6 8.8 9.0 4.1 4.1 4.3 13.4 14.0 13.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 90,024 90,016 89,775 24,307 24,226 24,001 57.17 57.40 57.17 10,256 10,384 10,465 9.3 9.4 9.5 4.5 4.5 14.3 14.9 June 96,128 96,548 96,310 4.5 16.3 2.8 3.0 3.2 July August September 96,143 96,254 96,180 89,450 89,264 89,235 23,843 23,672 23,530 57.06 57.06 56.92 10,828 10,931 11,315 9.8 9.9 10.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 3.2 3.3 3.5 October November December 95,763 95,670 95,682 88,938 88,785 88,665 23,287 23,131 23,061 56.65 56.57 56.50 11,576 11,906 12,036 10.5 10.7 10.8 5.2 5.2 5.0 17.1 17.3 18.0 3.8 4.1 4.3 January February March 95,691 95,670 95,729 r88,885 r88,746 88,814 23,186 23,049 23,030 56.46 56.38 56.36 11,446 11,490 11,381 10.4 10.4 10.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 19.4 19.0 19.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 April May June 96,088 96,190 r89,101 r89,416 r23,159 23,347 Dp23,514 11,328 11,192 10.2 10.1 (H)10.0 4.4 4.1 19.0 20.4 22.0 1)3.9 Dp89,760 56.51 56.52 (H>57.16 July . August September . . October November December 1982 January . February . . . . March . April May 1983 D97,264 1)11,146 H>p3.8 July August September . October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 14, 15, 17, and 18. Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. x 62 JULY 1983 4.1 4.1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process PRODUCTION AND INCOME Industrial Production Comprehensive Output and Income Timing Class C, C, C 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars C, C, C C, C, C C, C, C 1981 223. Current dollars 52. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) Year and month 51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 C, C, C C, C, C 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures C L, L Revised1 Personal income 47. Index of industrial production, total (1967=100) (1967 = 100) 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1967 = 100) C,C, C 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 January February March I,5l6'.l 2,316.9 2,336.5 2,361.4 1,233.0 1,236.2 1,240.9 1,061.3 1,065.0 1,069.1 234.0 230.8 231.5 151.4 151.8 152.1 141.0 140.8 142.1 165.6 166.2 165.3 69i!2 April May June 1,512.5 2,375.1 2,390.6 2,416.9 1,241.6 1,242.5 1,251.6 1,070.8 1,072.5 1,081.1 231.6 231.3 232.2 151.9 152.7 152.9 142.5 143.5 143.2 165.9 166.4 165.8 692^3 July August September 1,525.8 2,463.7 2,494.6 2,514.3 1,266.0 1,274.7 1,274.4 1,088.7 1,098.3 1,098.4 231.7 231.0 228.3 153.9 153.6 151.6 143.6 143.4 140.9 167.1 167.3 165.9 703! 2 October November December l,506\9 2,513.4 2,518.7 2,517.6 1,268.1 1,263.8 1,257.5 1,092.6 1,087.6 1,081.1 227.6 225.3 222.5 149.1 146.3 143.4 137.8 134.4 131.3 162.8 160.3 157.4 683!} January February March 1,485\8 2,518.1 2,530.2 2,535.8 1,249.1 1,255.7 1,256.0 1,074.6 1,080.0 1,078.7 223.0 223.8 222.7 140.7 142.9 141.7 127.1 129.3 128.2 155.1 157.8 157.3 668! i April May June 1,489.'3 2,549.0 2,568.0 2,572.5 1,258.1 1,263.8 1,254.3 1,079.3 1,084.3 1,076.0 221.6 220.2 217.4 140.2 139.2 138.7 126.7 126.1 125.5 156.1 155.0 155.3 664.'6 July August September 1,485*.7 2,589.8 2,586.7 2,597.4 1,256.0 1,250.8 1,251.2 1,072.2 1,067.5 1,066.6 215.5 213.3 211.9 138.8 138.4 137.3 125.9 124.9 123.5 155.7 156.9 156.7 66K6 October November December 1,48CL7 2,617.8 2,633.1 2,645.0 1,253.7 1,259.9 1,264.9 1,065.6 1,068.0 1,072.2 208.9 207.9 208.6 135.7 134.9 135.2 120.3 119.3 119.9 156.2 155.3 155.6 652 !i l,49o!i 2,652.6 2,650.5 2,670.1 1,264.3 1,262.1 1,269.1 1,075.9 1,072.6 1,078.0 212.3 212.3 213.0 137.4 138.1 r140.0 122.5 123.9 rl26.3 rl60.7 157.4 159.0 656!9 E>pl,52i'.4 2,690.5 2,720.6 |H>p2,734.1 1,267.9 1,278.5 H> PL280.6 1,078.1 1,088.7 E>pl,092.1 214.8 215.9 142.7 144.3 H>pl45.9 129.1 rl31.2 rl63.3 rl64.9 H)pl65.9 |H>p679!2 1982 1983 January February March April May June D 218.0 H>Pl33.2 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,' 1 JULY 1983 page i i i . 6 3 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS { H Minor Economic Process Capacity Utilization Timing Class Year and month L, C, U 83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA) (Percent) 82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB) (Percent) Revised1 1981 CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES Orders and Deliveries L, C, U 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Percent) L.L.L L,L,L Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 6. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 7. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil. dol.) L,L, L 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars (Bil. dol.) L, Lg, U U L, L 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries <§) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L, L, L (Percent reporting) Revised1 80'.6 82'.7 83.17 83.54 83.77 38.52 38.54 38.41 33.31 34.50 34.15 1.13 0.93 -0.30 316.32 317.25 316.95 46 50 52 80.8 81*9 87.38 88.31 88.20 39.72 39.92 39.61 34.92 35.29 35.16 1.92 2.37 0.86 318.87 321.23 322.09 56 52 48 80*. 3 82*.6 86.94 85.84 83.38 38.83 38.15 36.94 34.45 33.44 32.48 0.84 -0.32 -0.67 322.93 322.61 321.94 46 48 43 75.9 76.2 78.47 79.03 76.11 34.65 34.66 33.34 31.00 30.22 30.50 -3.33 -1.84 -3.43 318.61 316.77 313.34 38 32 30 72*9 January February March April May June Q PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued 73.6 76.70 77.36 78.18 33.54 33.82 34.12 29.18 29.45 30.55 0.23 -1.17 -0.55 313.57 312.40 311.85 32 36 35 71*6 70*. 7 76.74 76.35 76.16 33.44 33.15 32.93 29.30 30.77 30.29 -1.07 -3.33 -3.04 310.78 307.45 304.41 31 30 38 71*6 69*.4 75.56 72.96 72.35 32.63 31.49 31.14 30.29 29.60 29.62 -3.29 -4.28 -4.07 301.12 296.83 292.76 37 40 40 69.0 67* i 70.74 71.07 76.18 30.42 30.45 32.57 27.91 28.22 28.25 -1.74 -1.94 2.68 291.02 289.08 291.76 44 40 38 70.7 70.1 i 82.36 77.45 79.95 35.28 r32.93 33.91 31.54 r31.52 31.84 B>4.61 -0.32 0.36 296.37 296.05 296.41 41 42 50 35.45 r35.86 2.86 ®p73l4 83.41 r84.77 H> p89.47 32.16 H>p73.*7 H>T34.04 rl.81 52 52 E>p37.64 p33.26 p3.98 299.27 301.08 [H>p305.06 78 *78 . July August September October November December *76 *72 1982 January February March 72 April May June ii July August September *69 October . November December *68 1983 January February March April May June p7O (NA) H>52 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i . 6 4 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q [ Minor Economic Process CCC CCC Manufacturing and trade sales 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 57. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) CL,C 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods C L, U 59. Constant (1972) dollars ICC L.L.L 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 (1967=100) C) 1981 U, L, U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Timing Class Year and month • • l i l CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued 58. Index of consumer, sentiment © (1st Q 1966=100) L, L, L 12. Index of net business formation L, L, L 13. Number of new business incorporations Revised1 (1967 = 100) (Number) January February March 355,151 355,316 356,688 160,549 160,469 160,614 146.9 147.8 148.3 85,355 86,058 86,978 45,547 45,678 45,802 73.2 71.4 66.9 66.5 121.6 120.7 120.8 46,039 48,588 47,972 April May June 358,809 359,239 360,912 161,180 160,775 161,968 148.9 150.7 150.3 86,746 86,939 87,948 45,488 45,328 45,735 66.4 72.4 76, 73, 121.9 119.1 117.3 49,413 48,997 49,172 July August September 360,189 360,384 357,454 160,810 159,755 159,193 150.7 149.6 147.8 87,759 88,775 88,562 45,377 45,737 45,300 73.7 74.1 77.2 73.1 118, 118, 117.6 49,038 48,631 48,450 October November December 352,092 349,712 345,958 155,344 155,069 153,281 146.5 144.0 142.0 87,231 87,358 87,409 44,506 44,412 44,303 64.0 70.3 62.5 64.3 114.8 117.4 115.2 47,947 49,413 47,556 January February March 340,746 345,687 347,061 150,131 153,317 153,878 139.6 141.8 141.5 86,542 88,049 87,701 43,576 44,492 44,293 70.4 71.0 66.5 62.0 113.2 115.6 113.5 43,330 47,234 46,899 April May June 344,934 353,110 349,742 152,207 155,982 153,903 142.1 143.6 144.8 88,468 90,813 88,603 44,636 45,635 44,103 71.4 65.5 67, 65, 115.2 114.7 112.1 46,876 46,995 45,936 July August September 347,676 343,426 342,882 153,618 151,683 151,612 145.8 144.1 143.4 89,469 89,069 89,897 44,401 44,181 44,526 74.0 65, 65, 69.3 112.4 112.6 110.4 44,525 46,981 45,552 October November December 336,905 338,722 338,391 148,436 150,225 150,560 142.2 141.3 142.0 90,905 92,492 92,459 44,847 45,720 45,749 79.7 73.4 72.1 71.9 111.5 112.9 114.4 45,530 48,474 0)57,507 345,337 341,490 348,009 rl54,562 rl53,316 rl55,3S8 143.6 143.4 rl44.3 92,308 91,164 93,263 45,562 45,108 45,988 80.7 70.4 74.6 80.8 111.4 rll3.3 rll2.6 49,999 48,296 r349,802 [H>p364,429 rl56,140 B>pl61,478 rl47.6 rl49.5 89.1 .3 92.2 rill.3 rll5.0 H>PH6.3 1982 1983 January February March April May June (NA) (NA) r95,449 r98,423 46,812 48,082 B>p48,517 . 5 (NA) July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1983 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Timing Class Business Investment Commitments L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L 10. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 20. Constant (1972) dollars 24. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) Revised 1981 L, L, L L, C, U Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued 3 (Millions) (Bil. dol.) Revised 9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildingsl Square feet of floor space 27. Constant (1972) dollars U, Lg, U Square meters of floor space2 (Millions) C, Lg, Lg 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 3 January February March 28.66 26.59 27 76 14.60 13.63 13.98 25.02 22.70 23.99 13.00 11.92 12.33 83.72 83.86 83.79 7.78 7.79 7.78 27'.70 April May June 30.56 28.61 28.96 15.14 14.28 14.47 26.00 24.56 24.62 13.16 12.52 12.58 79.64 84.75 81.01 7.40 7.87 7.53 28'.06 July August September 28.12 28.14 27.98 13.72 14.24 14.26 24.16 24.74 24.36 12.00 12.77 12.70 73.46 78.67 68.12 6.82 7.31 6.33 26.94 October November December 27.09 27.82 25.58 13.60 14.48 12.87 22.66 24.30 21.05 11.68 12.96 10.92 74.26 70.77 70.65 6.90 6.57 6.56 22.99 26.77 29.36 25.94 13.22 14.44 13.14 21.86 22.41 21.71 11.14 11.45 11.30 58.18 63.29 61.15 5.40 5.88 5.68 25.*77 26.23 23.99 r23.41 14.05 11.81 11.36 22.81 20.31 19.93 12.59 10.23 9.86 58.93 53.71 64.87 5.47 4.99 6.03 19^33 July August September 22.94 22.88 24.49 11.12 11.26 12.22 19.93 18.74 20.22 9.84 9.47 10.36 57.80 59.78 55.95 5.37 5.55 5.20 18'.48 October November December 23.46 23.63 24.37 11.95 11.52 12.77 20.13 19.98 19.68 10.53 9.94 10.75 54.65 50.69 49.55 5.08 4.71 4.60 21.04 23.35 24.21 23.80 11.79 11.76 12.70 20.51 19.18 20.03 10.58 9.62 11.09 D66.89 57.77 52.65 B>6.21 5.37 4.89 26.49 |H)r28.74 p26.73 13.87 H>14.39 pl3.82 22.59 r22.30 12,20 11.67 (H>Pl2.38 54.32 61.20 65.40 5.05 5.69 6.08 ... 93.44 96." 18 97! 34 92! 74 1982 January February March April May June 9l!li 82! 82 74.29 70.39 1983 January February March April May June H>p23.33 p2o!% P69.67 (NA) (NA) July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. l This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 66 JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS H Minor Economic Process INVESTMENT-Continued Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures Timing Class C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, U 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Year and month F E CAPITAL . D X (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C 1 Nonresidential fixed investment ir 1972 dollars 87. Structures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 (1967 = 100) Revised1 1981 C, Lg, C Revised1 L, L, L 28. New private housing units started, total L, L, L 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits Revised1 86. Total (Ann. rate, thous.) (1967 = 100) L, L, L 89. Residential fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 January February March 312^24 333.32 331.22 343.78 177.7 177.5 179.3 17019 56I1 126!8 1,588 1,279 1,305 96.8 95.6 April May June 316173 346.11 345.55 353.96 181.0 182.0 183.6 173.4 5i.*6 12H7 1,332 1,150 1,047 96.1 94.7 78.8 47l3 July . . . . August . . . . September 328.'25 350.15 359.04 360.03 184.8 184.4 182.7 17716 53.5 12315 1,035 949 900 75.5 71.8 68.4 43." i October November December 327.*83 349.75 357.85 353.04 180.5 179.0 179.0 176\3 54!6 12il<3 866 839 906 59.0 60.4 64.3 39.*4 January February March 327172 334.30 344.06 343.89 172.2 171.6 169.0 173 '.6 5^3 11913 877 911 920 64.6 66.2 71.3 36\3 April May . . June . . . 323.22 328.44 334.75 332.35 164.9 159.9 156.7 167.'1 5416 lnii 911 1,028 71.1 76.8 74.6 37.8 July . . . August September 315.79 326.06 316.23 320.13 154.9 153.9 150.5 163.3 53.0 110.3 1,185 1,046 1,134 86.0 75.0 83.1 36.5 October November December 302177 308.63 310.31 310.02 147.1 146.4 148.1 16CL5 52l2 108 .'3 1,142 1,361 1,280 93.2 99.1 107 1 40*.6 293l03 307.70 300.14 314.18 146.6 142.7 rl43.7 15919 50l3 109! 6 1,694 1,784 1,605 116.9 119.5 118 5 45*.5 April May June . . . 312.41 306.91 (NA) rl47.0 rl48.6 [H> P149.8 r1,506 a302!23 p48.*5 E>pll3.*3 E>rl,799 124.1 132.1 [H>142.2 E>p5ll2 July August September a306.*83 98.6 48^8 1982 910 1983 January February March pieils nl 747 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. ^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. ItCII JULY 1983 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued B MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Inventory Investment Inventories on Hand and on Order L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars 31. Change in book value of mfg. and trade inventories, total 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1981 INVENTORIES ANC INVENTORY INVESTMENT Revised 2 Monthly data Smoothed data1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 2 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 2 70. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil. dol.) Revised Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value 77. Ratio, constantdollar inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Bil. dol.) (Ratio) (Bil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg 2 2 C) January February March 3*.6 -12.56 17.52 -8.77 -5.23 -3.72 -0.75 38.6 61.4 20.7 1.36 0.32 -0.38 496.10 501.21 502.94 263.85 265.04 264.56 79.89 81.01 82.63 1.63 1.64 1.64 222.56 222.88 222.50 April May June 8*. 9 -5.57 25.49 1.01 -0.10 2.39 5.35 23.1 44.3 37.6 1.26 1.66 1.27 504.87 508.56 511.70 264.42 266.30 266.20 82.96 84.65 85.30 1.63 1.65 1.64 223.77 225.42 226.70 July August September 16*. i 4.67 4.52 11.65 8.68 6.90 5.17 27.6 53.8 46.9 1.05 -1.10 0.75 514.00 518.48 522.39 266.72 267.72 269.30 85.50 87.08 88.30 1.66 1.67 1.69 227.75 226.65 227.40 October November December 6*.6 -9.35 2.18 -20.83 4.61 1.88 -3.92 21.3 35.9 -12.1 -3.01 -1.78 -1.05 524.17 527.16 526.15 269.65 270.78 269.42 89.34 90.00 89.55 1.74 1.75 1.76 224.39 222.61 221.56 -10.2 -26.62 -23.18 -10.81 -12.21 -19.32 -21.87 -30.1 -28.3 -10.2 -1.87 -2.82 -1.88 523.65 521.29 520.44 267.83 266.93 266.28 89.14 89.78 89.90 1.78 1.74 1.73 219.69 216.87 214.99 April . May June -3.4 -4.87 -24.35 -7.56 -16.58 -13.15 -12.80 35.2 -51.0 23.1 -2.08 -2.03 -3.18 523.37 519.12 521.04 267.04 265.27 265.88 89.19 88.32 87.56 1.75 1.70 1.72 212.91 210.88 207.70 July August September -1*3 0.37 -16.70 -1.50 -11.39 -9.24 -6.95 1.3 1.3 -3.1 -1.57 -2.12 -2.45 521.14 521.26 521.00 266.21 265.79 266.01 88.22 88.30 87.79 1.73 1.75 1.75 206.13 204.01 201.56 October November December -22*7 -20.08 -38.14 -11.29 -9.35 -16.33 -21.54 -14.4 -70.9 -23.4 -1.94 -1.85 -1.69 519.80 513.89 511.94 264.90 262.12 261.21 87.61 86.40 85.07 1.79 1.75 1,73 199.62 197.77 196.07 -15*4 -16.13 6.86 -16.75 -22.51 -14.35 -7.76 -52.7 -23.3 -28.6 0.79 1.00 0.71 507.55 505.61 503.22 259.22 259.42 257.57 83.78 83.29 82.41 rl.68 1.69 rl.66 196.86 197.87 198.57 1.70 -5.70 rl8.9 G>p20.3 0.13 r504.80 P506.49 (NA) 257.40 p257.83 (NA) 82.04 82.12 (NA) rl.65 pi. 60 (NA) 198.70 E> 200.04 (NA) 1982 January February March 1983 January February March April May June -4.5 |H)pl4.26 (NA) (NA) July August September October November December . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27. 1 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ J Minor Economic Process and month Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices Timing Class L, L, L 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive materials U, L, L 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrials l PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS L, L, L L, L, L 99. Change in sensitive materials prices Smoothed data 2 Monthly data 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks <§) Profits and Profit Margins L, L, L L, L, L Corporate profits after taxes 16. Current dollars 18. Constant (1972) dollars (1967 = 100) (Percent) (Percent) (1941-43 = 10) 1981 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised4 (Percent) Revised4 L, C, L L, C, L Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj 3 79. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised4 80. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised4 L, L, L 22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Percent) Revised4 -1.81 -2.50 0.64 291.6 284.2 289.8 -1.60 -2.08 0.92 0.16 -0.80 -1.15 132.97 128.40 133.19 152.2 79.1 103.1 53.8 9.0 0.94 0.10 0.30 293.0 288. 282. 0.83 -0.37 -0.45 -0.52 0.17 0.23 134.43 131.73 132.28 138.6 70.2 104.6 53.5 8.1 July . . . . . . . August September . . . -1.19 -1.34 -2.37 286.6 289.5 283.0 -0.25 -0.41 -1.91 -0.18 -0.36 -0.61 129.13 129.63 118.27 144.0 72.0 113.8 57.2 8.1 October November . . . December . . . -1.08 -2.18 -0.72 277.2 270.5 264.2 119.80 122.92 123.79 141.7 69.4 116.5 57.4 7.7 -1.05 -1.00 -1.40 -1.50 January February March 0.87 -1.40 -0.22 263.4 261.0 254.5 0.35 -0.97 -0.89 -1.11 -0.71 -0.53 117.28 114.50 110.84 112.9 55.3 101.7 49.9 6.2 April May June -0.76 0.11 0.29 247.4 245. 232, -1.21 -0.18 -1.45 -0.76 -0.89 -0.85 116.31 116.35 109.70 117.4 56.8 105.3 51.1 6.4 July August September . . . -0.33 -2.46 -0.26 237.0 236.2 239.0 0.41 -1.38 0.19 -0.68 -0.61 -0.53 109.38 109.65 122.43 116.5 56.0 107.6 51.9 6.4 October November . . . December . . . -0.23 -0.57 0.34 235.5 230.4 227.4 -0.51 -0.93 -0.24 -0.41 -0.49 -0.49 132.66 138.10 139.37 113.5 54.2 107.9 51.6 6.0 2.80 >r3.28 r2.18 232.1 241.3 248.8 2.08 H>2.87 2.07 -0.13 0.94 1.96 144.27 146.80 151.88 108.2 51.7 B)120.3 H>57.5 5.8 -0.66 2.07 3.20 H>253.2 251.5 250.5 0.13 0.88 1.57 E>2.02 1.36 0.94 157.71 164.10 H)166.39 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) January February March April May June 1982 1983 January February March April May . . . . . . . June July August September . . . 5 254.5 6 167.74 October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. beginning with June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 2See footnote 1 on page 68. 3IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. *See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. sAverage for July 1 through 21. 6Average for July 6, 13, and 20. BCII JULY 1983 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process R 9 U, L, L Year and month 81. Ratio, profits (after taxes) with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income * (Percent) 1981 Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins-Continued Timing Class . . . . . . PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued L, L, L I L, L Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share L, L, L Lg, Lg, Lg 15. Profits (after 26. Ratio, price Net cash flow, corporate taxes) per dollar to unit labor cost, nonfarm of sales, all business sector 34. Current manufacturing 35. Constant dollars corporations (1972) dollars (Cents) (1977 = 100) Revised2 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2 Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations (1977 = 100) (Dollars) 2 Revised Revised Revised Lg, Lg, Lg Lg. Lg, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data (1967 = 100) Revised2 Actual data as a percent of trend 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Percent) (Percent) 2 Revised2 Revised January . February March . . 5.5 4.9 98.1 271.7 138.0 139.0 1.272 202.4 201.8 203.4 100.8 99.8 99.9 74.9 April . May . June . 5.7 5.6 97^9 263.1 130.2 14L5 1.290 205.2 206.2 207.9 100.1 99.9 100.0 74.9 July . . . . August . . September 6.1 4.8 273.1 132.8 144! 2 1.306 207.8 208.7 211.1 99.3 99.0 99.5 73.9 October. . November December 6.0 4.4 97^7 277.5 132.2 147^9 1.342 215.2 218.1 220.7 100.7 101.4 101.9 74.5 96." 7 255.1 15CL9 1.374 226.9 224.2 224.5 104.1 102.2 101.7 75.8 1982 January February March 5.5 April May June 5.6 3. 6 96.5 266.3 124! 9 1.394 226.9 229.1 229.6 102.1 102.4 102.0 75.9 July August . . . . ' . September . . . 5.8 3.5 96\8 272.4 126.9 1.403 228.6 227.7 228.2 100.9 99.9 99.4 76.4 October. . November December 5.6 96\7 275.5 127.9 154.9 1.4i9 229.3 230.4 230.7 99.3 99.1 98.6 76.4 E>155.'8 0)1.428 0)231.8 231 229, 98. 97. 96. 76.1 (NA) (NA) 228.3 227.4 p226.7 95. 94. p93.3 (NA) 1983 January . . February . March . . . April . May . June . .5 p3.3 0)97'.5 0)278.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) July . . . . August . . September October. . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 15, 29, and 30. 1 IVA, 2 inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment, See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 70 JULY 1983 10 1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS 1 H Minor Economic Process Money Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT L,L, L 85. Change in money supply (Ml) L, C, U 102. Change in money supply (M2) (Percent) (Percent) L, L, L L.L.L 104. Change in total liquid assets Smoothed data 1 Monthly (Percent) Credit Flows Velocity of Money (Percent) 105. Money supply (Ml) in 1972 dollars (Bil. dol.) L, Lr L 106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars (Bil. dol.) c, c, c C, Lg, C 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply (Ml) L.L, L 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ratio) (Ratio) 2 Revised 1981 Revised2 January February March 0.63 0.77 1.10 0.49 0.85 1.20 1.07 1.05 0.66 0.89 0.96 0.95 199.9 199.9 200.5 785.9 786.5 789.7 6.819 1.414 1.414 1.412 55.82 60.60 46.93 April May June 1.22 0.00 0.05 0.87 0.43 0.71 0.46 0.82 0.72 0.80 202.1 200.4 198.9 793.2 789.8 789.3 6.776 1.408 1.411 1.417 54.62 42.05 47.48 July August September . . , 0.49 0.44 -0.09 0.86 1.23 0.59 0.97 1.36 0.94 0.97 197.6 196.8 194.7 787.1 790.1 786.7 6.938 1.432 1.432 1.435 60.85 34.20 26.76 October -0.05 0.60 1.08 0.69 0.95 0.80 0.93 1.02 0.64 789.3 793.1 796.4 6.945 0.91 193.9 194.2 195.5 1.425 1.415 1.403 22.79 21.66 5.14 January February March 1.63 0.04 0.13 0.85 0.31 0.72 0.85 0.90 0.92 0.85 0.82 0.84 198.1 198.1 198.4 800.9 802.8 808.9 6.743 391 393 ,387 22.08 16.39 3.53 April May June 0.16 0.69 0.22 0.34 0.84 0.75 0.65 1.00 1.08 0.86 0.84 0.88 198.2 197.6 195.9 809.7 808.2 805.6 6.797 ,389 ,388 1.380 8.75 3.22 -9.78 July August September . . . 0.22 0.86 1.07 0.88 1.21 0.70 1.13 0.91 0.60 0.99 1.06 0.96 195.2 196.3 198.2 807.9 815.2 820.1 6.739 1.377 359 355 -5.95 -7.22 -10.42 October November . . . December . . . 1.19 1.13 0.89 0.66 0.79 0.75 0.90 0.57 0.50 0.84 0.75 0.67 199.7 201.9 204.3 822.1 828.6 837.1 6.566 1.357 1.354 1.350 -48.32 -9.05 r-47.32 0.82 1.87 1.32 B>2.58 2.03 r0.93 rl.17 pi.02 rO.7O pO.82 205.6 209.9 212.4 857.2 876.4 883.4 6.468 1.320 1.292 1.290 r20.60 Dr34.81 r-50.72 -0.22 )2.20 pO.87 r0.23 rl.03 p0.89 210.7 214.1 215.6 r880.3 r884.6 (H>p890.7 p6.480 1.297 1.298 pi.293 r-0.47 p-44.76 (NA) November . . . December . . . 1982 1983 January February March April May June July August September . . . 3 (NA) (NA) 0.55 October . . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. lr rhis series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Average for weeks ended July 6 and 13. 2 See 3 RCII JULY 1983 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ H Minor Economic Process Timing Class Credit Flows-Continued L, L, L L.L.L 112. Net change in business loans 113. Net change in consumer installment credit Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 111. Change in credit outstandingbusiness and consumer borrowing (Ann. rate, percent) MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Credit Difficulties L, L, L 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L, L, L 14. Current liabilities of business failures (§) (Mil. dol.) Bank Reserves L, L, L 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans (Percent) L, U, U 93. Free reserves < (Mil. dol.) Interest Rates L, Lg, U 94. Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve ® (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate ® (Percent) C. Lg, Lg 114. Treasury bill rate ® (Percent) 1981 January February March 17.57 4.36 -20.64 19.54 35.65 23.12 7.9 7.9 3.2 320,608 341.36 789.20 485.34 2.42 2.51 2.53 -1,028 -1,023 -719 1,386 1,301 994 19.08 15.93 14.70 14.72 14.90 13.48 April May June 46.46 67.79 51.17 25.55 24.02 12.78 10.0 11.2 8.4 392,040 536.88 428.20 408.54 2.40 2.40 2.30 -1,136 -1,968 -1,700 1,338 2,220 2,039 15.72 18.52 19.10 13.63 16.30 14.56 July August September . . . 52.51 57.31 59.23 19.28 21.67 33.73 9.9 8.3 9.1 318,116 619.46 450.41 752.34 2.22 2.35 2.28 -1,335 -1,122 -1,035 1,679 1,417 1,451 19.04 17.82 15.87 14.70 15.61 14.95 October November . . . December . . . 25.18 42.12 32.60 9.41 -4.36 -2.76 3.0 3.6 3.1 247,540 897.94 618.76 626.74 2.37 2.42 2.37 -871 -348 -330 1,149 695 642 15.08 13.31 12.37 13.87 11.27 10.93 January February March 65.16 62.47 23.77 21.42 8.66 2.62 8.4 7.9 2.8 262,872 645.14 913.46 836.01 2.48 2.39 2.24 -1,101 -1,414 -1,254 1,526 1,713 1,611 13.22 14.78 14.68 12.41 13.78 12.49 April May June 64.22 45.05 31.64 19.62 18.10 20.90 6.6 4.7 3.2 316,980 1,309.33 2,850.45 20 21 16 -1,307 -745 -895 1,581 1,105 1,205 14.94 14.45 14.15 12,82 12.15 12.11 July August September . . . 7.98 4.73 22.00 4.70 0.80 10.04 -1.9 1.4 1.2 255,704 19 21 19 -378 -199 -592 669 510 976 12.59 10.12 10.31 11.91 9.01 8.20 October November . . . December . . . 2.71 -63.76 -64.46 4.96 15.65 29.03 -4.1 -5.6 -8.1 282,360 2.24 2.23 E>2.18 -51 -177 -197 455 579 697 9.71 9.20 8.95 7.75 8.04 8.01 E) 32.20 -5.70 11.00 @ 32.70 > 8.82 30.98 [H>5.7 1.4 -1.4 H>p310,372 2.24 2.23 2.22 46 -122 r-415 500 557 r852 8.68 8.51 8.77 7.81 8.13 8.30 r-32.62 r-48.18 (NA) 27.25 32.35 (NA) -0.6 r-5.1 (NA) (NA) (NA) -517 r-453 -1,073 993 r902 ,716 8.80 8.63 0)8.98 8.25 r8.19 1982 (NA) 1983 January February March April May June July August September . . . *-974 x l,538 X 9.34 October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33. and 34. Average for weeks ended July 6, 13, and 20. Average for weeks ended July 7, 14, and 21. 2 72 JULY 1983 D8.82 2 9.12 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Interest Rates—Continued Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 118. Secondary bond yields @ bond yields ® bond yields © market yields on FHA mortgages ® (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Outstand ng Debt Lg, Lg, Lg 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks ® 66. Consumer installment credit (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 101. Constant (1972) dollars 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (Mil. dol.) (Percent) Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Revised1 1981 January February March 14.01 14.60 14.49 11.65 12.23 12.15 9.68 10.10 10.16 14.23 14.79 15.04 19.91 20.16 19.43 18.05 309,765 312,736 314,663 211,841 212,204 210,484 88,599 87,869 86,370 13.37 13.38 13.33 April May June 15.00 15.68 14.97 12.62 12.96 12.39 10.62 10.78 10.67 15.91 16.33 16.31 19.99 17.15 19.61 20.03 316,792 318,794 319,859 214,356 220,005 224,269 87,030 89,107 90,614 13.34 13.34 13.23 July August September . . . 15.67 16.34 16.97 13.05 13.61 14.14 11.14 12.26 12.92 16.76 17.96 18.55 21.11 20.39 20.50 20.08 321,466 323,272 326,083 228,645 233,421 238,357 91,936 93,781 95,996 13.05 12.96 12.97 October November . . , December . . . 16.96 15.53 15.55 14.13 12.68 12.88 12.83 11.89 12.91 17.43 15.98 16.43 17.23 18.45 16.84 15.75 326,867 326,504 326,274 240,455 243,965 246,682 96,724 98,333 99,308 13.00 12.96 12.96 January February March 16.34 16.35 15.72 13.73 13.63 12.98 13.28 12.97 12.82 17.38 17.10 16.41 17.13 15.75 16.56 16.50 328,059 328,781 328,999 252,112 257,318 259,299 100,644 102,640 103,637 13.03 12.99 12.97 April May June 15.62 15.37 15.96 12.84 12.67 13.32 12.59 11.95 12.45 16.31 16.19 16.73 17.11 16.50 16.50 16.50 330,634 332,142 333,884 264,651 268,405 271,042 105,776 107,062 107,856 12.97 12.93 12.98 July August September . . . 15.75 14.64 13.78 12.97 12.15 11.48 12.28 11.23 10.66 16.29 14.61 14.03 13.27 16.26 14.39 13.50 334,276 334,343 335,180 271,707 272,101 273,934 107,735 107,934 109,007 12.91 12.93 12.90 October November . . . December . . . 12.63 11.89 12.15 10.51 10.18 10.33 9.69 10.06 9.96 12.99 12.82 12.80 11.26 12.52 11.85 11.50 335,593 336,897 339,316 274,160 268,847 263,475 108,923 106,643 104,347 12.82 12.79 12.83 January February March 12.04 12.11 11.81 10.37 10.60 10.34 9.50 9.58 9.20 12.87 12.65 12.68 10.20 11.16 10.98 10.50 342,041 342,776 345,358 266,158 265,683 266,600 105,702 rlO5,179 105,668 12.89 12.93 12.93 April May June 11.58 11.24 11.90 10.19 10.21 10.64 9.05 9.11 9.52 12.50 12.41 12.96 rlO.30 10.50 10.50 10.50 347,629 @>350,325 r263,882 r259,867 rlO4,466 rlO2,593 12.92 P12.88 (NA) (NA) (NA) 1982 1983 July August September . . . 2 12.38 3 9.51 (NA) MO.50 October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 2 Average for weeks ended July 1, 8, 15, and 22. 3 Average for weeks ended July 7, 14, and 21. *Average for July 1 through 26. JULY 1983 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Q | Year and month 950. Twelve leading indicator components (series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106, 111) 1-month span 6-month span 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62,77, 91, 95,101,109) 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 1-month span DIFFUSION INDEXES 961. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (20 industries) 962. Initial claims for State unemployment insurance, week including the 12th l (51 areas) 963. Number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls (186 industries) 9-month span 1-month span 15.0 47.5 95.0 77.5 60.0 86.3 39.2 31.4 76.5 81.4 70.6 57.8 52.4 52.2 68.5 65.3 63.7 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.3 41.7 16.7 66.7 33.3 75.0 25.0 9-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1981 8.3 75.0 54.2 58.3 100.0 33.3 58.3 100.0 41.7 25.0 45.8 58.3 33.3 50.0 50.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 50.0 83.3 66.7 41.7 66.7 50.0 66.7 60.0 77.5 22.5 42.5 15.0 10.0 64.7 78.4 17.6 19.6 19.6 5.9 65.6 60.2 58.9 69.4 64.2 58.6 75.0 25.0 37.5 50.0 25.0 12.5 66.7 50.0 83.3 83.3 66.7 66.7 32.5 57.5 15.0 15.0 20.0 5.0 68.6 58.8 9.8 17.6 9.8 27.5 62.6 49.5 42.2 45.7 34.4 29.6 January February March April May June 87.5 75.0 July August September 33.3 41.7 8.3 8.3 16.7 8.3 October November December 25.0 50.0 29.2 8.3 8.3 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0 66.7 75.0 66.7 66.7 50.0 65.0 17.5 32.5 7.5 0.0 5.0 60.8 49.0 22.5 11.8 5.9 7.8 33.3 29.3 30.9 24.2 25.0 22.0 45.8 58.3 33.3 41.7 41.7 45.8 0.0 87.5 37.5 0.0 50.0 50.0 75.0 33.3 33.3 41.7 33.3 33.3 5.0 95.0 12.5 5.0 32.5 22.5 96.1 24.5 5.9 11.8 31.4 43.1 28.5 45.4 36.0 20.2 23.7 25.3 66.7 50.0 45.8 25.0 75.0 June 66.7 37.5 37.5 r25.0 0.0 0.0 58.3 41.7 58.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 47.5 65.0 80.0 22.5 25.0 85.0 62.7 68.6 19.6 15.7 23.5 9.8 39.0 47.6 32.8 29.8 26.1 26.1 July August September 58.3 66.7 62.5 50.0 r41.7 62.5 25.0 33.3 r50.0 r25.0 33.3 16.7 16.7 45.0 37.5 42.5 32.5 60.0 80.0 67.6 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.6 17.6 72.5 82.4 38.4 37.1 34.1 23.4 19.1 21.2 October November December 66.7 58.3 66.7 83.3 87.5 83.3 0.0 50.0 75.0 r50.0 r50.0 75.0 16.7 0.0 16.7 rO.O r8.3 16.7 57.5 65.0 62.5 62.5 82.5 rlOO.O 88.2 60.8 76.5 71.6 66.7 84.3 29.3 32.0 42.2 26.1 26.6 35.8 75.0 66.7 66.7 91.7 100.0 2 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3 100.0 33.3 50.0 r25.0 16.7 16.7 (NA) 85.0 7.5 97.5 r90.0 p90.0 68.6 57.8 35.3 p96.1 (NA) 56.5 45.7 62.4 r50.5 64.0 p74.7 1982 January February March . . April 0.0 0.0 9.8 1983 January February March April May June 2 83.3 70.8 65.0 s r87.5 100.0 100.0 25.0 8.3 (NA) r92.5 r32.5 p67.5 80.4 p46.1 (NA) r69.1 r70.4 p66.9 July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. 1 Figures are the percent of components declining. 2 Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available. 'Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 74 JULY 1983 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q [ DIFFUSION Year and month 964. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (34 industries) 1-month span 965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated (17 manufacturing industries) 966. Index of industrial production (24 industries) NDEXES-Continued 967. Index of spot market prices, raw industrials (§) (13 industrial materials) 968. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks»(g) 960. Net profits, manufacturing2 © (about 600 companies) 6-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 83.3 62.5 45.8 79.2 70.8 58.3 30.8 30.8 65.4 38.5 38.5 46.2 66.0 42.5 85.8 79.2 67.3 59.6 43 56.2 62.5 45.8 54.2 58.3 45.8 69.2 26.9 38.5 46.2 46.2 53.8 81.1 30.2 67.3 59.6 44.2 42.3 *41 87.5 52.1 12.5 31.3 20.8 16.7 61.5 61.5 42.3 61.5 42.3 23.1 19.2 40.4 0.0 46.2 32.7 9.6 20.8 8.3 20.8 8.3 *34 8.3 10.4 38.5 26.9 46.2 23.1 23.1 15.4 58.7 65.4 67.3 14.4 10.6 34.6 33.3 75.0 31.3 0.0 12.5 33.3 42.3 34.6 38.5 15.4 30.8 26.9 10.6 34.6 28.8 34.6 42.3 38.5 *50 *39 20.8 41.7 54.2 41.7 37.5 33.3 30.8 34.6 23.1 26.9 19.2 19.2 88.5 54.8 11.5 18.0 56.0 79.6 *53 52 p53 60.4 52.1 41.7 33.3 25.0 37.5 61.5 53.8 61.5 26.9 15.4 23.1 52.9 26.5 100.0 87.8 87.8 89.8 58 25.0 33.3 41.7 45.8 60.4 75.0 46.2 30.8 46.2 50.0 57.7 65.4 98.0 85.7 51.0 89.8 98.0 100.0 (NA) (NA) 1-quarter span 1-month span *49 9-month span 75.0 58.3 75.0 r79.2 91.7 p91.7 61.5 76.9 57.7 80.8 61.5 57.7 63.3 59.2 73.5 100.0 98.0 4-Q moving average (4-quarter span) 1981 January February March 41.2 50.0 50.0 82.4 79.4 64.7 56 April May June 64.7 52.9 52.9 55.9 41.2 32.4 53 July August September 35.3 35.3 47.1 32.4 26.5 14.7 33 October November December 36.8 50.0 35.3 29.4 20.6 14.7 30 January February March 38.2 47.1 45.6 23.5 26.5 33.8 48 April May June 47.1 61.8 35.3 26.5 23.5 41.2 27 July August September 50.0 38.2 50.0 23.5 32.4 52.9 53 October November December 38.2 70.6 41.2 44.1 50.0 67.6 80 70.6 52.9 55.9 r91.2 p82.4 p53 ... ... 60 # 59 49 # 48 1982 1983 January February March April May June 76.5 r66.2 p58.8 July August September (NA) 65.4 46.2 46.2 r83.3 87.5 p87.5 3 3 81.6 91.8 oo. o 46.2 October November December See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. 1 Based on 53 industries through May 1981, on 52 industries through August 1982, on 50 industries in September 1982, and on 49 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc. 3 Based on average for July 5, 12, and 19. BUI JULY 1983 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued a Year and quarter b. Later anticipations 972. Net profits, manufacturing and t r a d e 1 ^ ) c. Early anticipations Anticipated Actual 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade' ® Actua 1 971. New orders, manufacturing xpenditures for newplant and 970. Business < equipment (22 ndustries) a. Actual expenditures DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Actual Anticipated Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 66 75 57 62 62 54 57 56 66 73 59 61 73 62 68 66 72 80 63 67 68 70 62 62 74 74 76 76 60 66 60 60 70 69 74 72 70 74 71 68 78 76 80 80 59.1 59.1 65.9 59.1 52 50 52 56 60 68 64 60 53 52 52 54 61 66 66 60 63 58 57 60 65 70 72 65 45.5 40.9 68.2 66 (NA) 66 77 82 62 (NA) 64 73 80 66 (NA) 68 78 84 (1-Q span) (1-Q span) (1-Q span) (4-Q span) 77.3 59.1 50.0 54.5 54.5 45.5 36.4 40.9 81.8 59.1 81.8 77.3 74 63 60 60 72.7 63.6 72.7 36.4 72.7 40.9 54.5 59.1 70.5 68.2 77.3 68.2 54.5 34.1 27.3 22.7 59.1 22.7 27.3 50.0 36.4 (NA) 59.1 43.2 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . n Year and quarter 974. Number o employees, manufacturing and trade' ® Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade l ® Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) DIFFUSION NDEXES-Continued 976. Selling prices, manufacturing l ® Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade ® Anticipated Actua (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 978. Selling prices, retail trade* ® Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 58 54 53 51 54 56 48 50 67 61 64 60 62 70 53 56 90 88 90 90 87 90 83 86 92 90 92 90 90 92 87 88 92 91 94 90 90 93 84 90 51 53 52 52 56 54 56 55 62 64 62 63 63 61 66 64 88 86 84 82 88 90 89 84 90 88 84 82 90 89 89 84 94 90 86 86 90 90 92 87 48 46 46 46 50 51 51 48 58 52 52 52 54 56 56 50 72 68 63 60 80 76 68 66 72 67 68 61 82 78 72 68 78 75 74 68 82 81 76 72 48 (NA) 50 56 59 54 (NA) 52 58 62 61 (NA) 65 66 70 63 (NA) 68 64 68 68 (NA) 69 67 70 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. x This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun § Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1982 November 1983 December January April March February June' 3 May' 961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries 39.0 39.0 39.7 39.2 39.5 40.1 39.9 40.1 Percent rising of 20 components . (65) (62) (85) (8) (98) (92) (32) (68) Lumber and wood products . Furniture and fixtures 38.7 37.6 38.8 37.8 40.5 38.6 39.5 37.9 39.5 38.3 40.0 39.3 39.8 39.2 39.9 39.5 Stone, clay, and glass products. Primary metal industries 40.2 38.3 40.1 38.8 41.4 38.9 40.5 39.1 40.6 39.4 r41.0 39.9 41.2 40.2 41, 40, Fabricated metal products ., Machinery, except electrical , 39.2 39.3 39.2 39.3 39.9 39.6 39.6 39.4 39.7 39.7 40.5 40.2 40.4 40.0 40, 40, Electric and electronic equipment Transportation equipment 39.3 40.9 39.4 40.1 39.9 41.6 39.5 41.2 39.8 41.7 40.4 42.3 40.3 41.6 Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing 39.4 39.1 39.7 39.0 40.4 38.7 39.7 37.7 40.0 39.0 40.5 r39.0 40.3 38.8 40.1 38.9 39.5 37.3 Durable goods industries: + 40.5 42.0 Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products . Tobacco manufacturers - 39.4 38.0 - 39.1 37.9 39.3 36.5 39.0 34.1 39.2 36.3 39.6 r37.3 39.4 37.4 Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products + 38.8 35.0 + + 38.9 35.1 39.7 36.6 39.0 35.2 39.6 35.6 40.6 r36.2 40.4 36.1 Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing ... 0 0 41.7 37.1 o 0 41.7 37.1 41.8 37.5 41, 37, 42. 37. r42.4 37.7 42.7 37.4 Chemicals and allied products . Petroleum and coal products .. + 40.7 44.1 + + 40.9 44.4 41.0 44.5 41.0 44.4 41.2 44.9 41.5 43.5 41.5 43.7 41.7 43.6 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products. Leather and leather products + + 39.6 35.8 + 0 40.4 35.8 40.1 36.3 39.7 34.9 40.6 36.0 r41.1 37.0 41.2 36.8 41.2 36.8 + 0 40.6 36.2 42.7 37.3 964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries Percent rising of 34 components . Primary metals Fabricated metal products. + - Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery + Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries. + - 71,067 + 76,180 + (71) + (41) 7,670 8,109 7,212 7,761 82,355 77,449 (71) (53) + 79,951 + (56) 83,407 + 84,773 + (76) (66) + + 8,708 + 9,229 12,773 12,292 + 11,967 + 12,934 12,708 12,213 + 12,252 12,398 + + 14,330 + 12,526 + 14,806 13,181 15,150 15,073 21,399 14,907 23,105 16,392 17,708 16,156 + + 17,953 + 16,244 + 20,226 16,876 + + + 9,911 9,024 + 9,183 9,715 8,952 + 9,366 + NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. preliminary; and "NA", not available. + + 89,467 (59) 9,963 10,035 + 9,723 10,196 15,030 13,849 - 14,766 13,435 18,621 + 17,275 + 23,576 17,771 The "r" indicates revised; "p", x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. 2 ItCII JULY 1983 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued Diffusion index components 1982 1983 December November February January March April' May' 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ' (1967 = 100) All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components 2 134.9 135.2 137.4 138.1 140.0 142.7 144.3 145.9 (33) (42) (75) (58) (75) (83) (88) (88) Durable manufactures: Lumber and products... Furniture and fixtures .. 119.1 152.4 + + 121.4 153.7 130.0 150.0 + + 130.2 154.0 128.7 161.0 + + 132.1 168.3 + + 135.8 169.7 (NA) (NA) Clay, glass, and stone products. Primary metals 127.3 63.6 - 125.4 63.5 128.0 73.1 + + 131.8 77.9 135.6 81.2 + + 138.3 82.5 + + 139.3 85.1 (NA) 86.9 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery... 107.0 139.6 + - 107.3 139.2 107.6 138.0 + - 110.3 136.2 113.9 138.6 + + 115.3 143.2 116.1 146.6 117.3 147.6 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment 165.5 100.2 o + 165.5 103.7 169.5 106.3 + 168.9 109.6 173.8 110.1 177.5 111.4 179.6 113.6 + + 182.3 116.9 Instruments 155.8 129.5 - 155.2 128.2 154.5 131.3 + 153.4 133.9 154.0 136.9 155.6 144.0 157.0 147.4 + 156.7 148.6 Foods Tobacco products 152.0 113.0 + - 152.8 109.9 + - 154.4 104.7 + 153.0 108.5 152.0 113.4 153.5 114.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Textile mill products .. Apparel products 123.1 (NA) - 122.2 (NA) + 125.8 (NA) + 130.7 (NA) 131.9 (NA) 136.4 (NA) 137.1 (NA) (NA) (NA) Paper and products Printing and publishing 154.5 141.7 + 151.1 142.8 + - 158.8 141.3 + 155.6 144.0 156.3 145.9 157.0 145.5 160.6 145.0 160.9 145.9 Chemicals and products Petroleum products .... 192.8 120.0 + - 195.9 118.7 + - 197.6 113.5 + - 202.3 111.7 205.7 114.8 208.8 121.5 210.9 123.6 (NA) 124.4 Rubber and plastics products... Leather and products 250.2 57.7 - 249.7 56.0 256.2 59.5 + + 264.0 61.7 272.0 59.4 283.1 58.7 288.1 59.8 (NA) (NA) + + Miscellaneous manufactures ... Nondurable manufactures: Mining: Metal mining ... Coal 70.4 134.1 74.9 129.7 81.7 144.8 - 75.1 136.5 75.2 127.3 79.8 125.3 83.0 125.6 (NA) 123.7 Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals . 120.3 111.9 122.9 111.7 124.6 112.8 + 117.0 115.7 114.4 114.0 112.2 117.7 113.3 116.8 113.8 (NA) NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. preliminary; and "NA", not available. The "r" indicates revised; "p", x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 2 78 JULY 1983 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued 1982 Diffusion index components November 1983 December January February 230.4 227.4 232.1 241.3 (31) Percent rising of 13 components May July1 June INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS J 967. Raw industrials price index ( 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 ) .... April March (46) (62) (77) + 248.8 + 250.5 + 251.5 (65) (58) 253.2 (46) (46) (46) 254.5 Dollars Copper scrap (pound).. (kilogram).. + 0.485 + 1.069 0.510 1.124 0.552 1.217 0.591 1.303 0.587 1.294 + 0.608 + 1.340 0.623 1.373 0.591 1.303 0.593 1.307 Lead scrap (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.129 0.284 - 0.114 0.251 0.126 0.278 0.125 0.276 0.123 0.271 + 0.128 0.282 0.124 0.273 0.118 0.260 0.115 0.254 Steel scrap (U.S. ton).. (metric ton).. o 60.000 o 60.000 66.138 66.138 61.250 67.516 72.750 80.192 85.000 93.696 - 80.500 88.735 69.600 + 75.500 76.720 83.224 79.000 87.082 Tin , (pound).. (kilogram).. - 5.524 + 5.528 12.178 12.187 5.518 12.165 5.948 13.113 6.180 13.624 6.300 13.889 - 6.208 13.686 6.158 13.576 6.137 13.530 Zinc (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.404 0.891 0.390 0.860 0.402 0.886 0.404 0.891 0.384 0.847 0.387 + 0.853 0.404 0.891 0.405 0.893 0.404 0.891 .. (yard).. (meter).. - 0.256 0.280 0.240 0.262 0.229 0.250 0.237 0.259 0.256 0.280 0.260 0.284 0.244 0.267 0.252 0.276 0.250 0.273 (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.589 + 1.299 0.610 1.345 0.622 1.371 0.633 1.396 0.681 1.501 0.677 1.493 + 0.692 1.526 0.726 1.601 0.712 1.570 Print cloth (yard).. (meter).. + 0.567 + 0.620 0.610 0.667 0.610 0.667 0.608 0.665 0.594 0.650 0.578 + 0.632 0.584 0.639 0.576 0.630 0.610 0.667 Wool tops (pound).. (kilogram).. + 3.600 7.937 3.375 7.441 3.300 7.275 3.300 7.275 3.240 7.143 3.200 o 7.055 3.200 7.055 3.200 7.055 3.200 7.055 Hides (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.489 1.078 0.485 1.069 0.474 1.045 0.479 1.056 0.504 1.111 0.560 1.235 + 0.605 1.334 0.618 1.362 0.687 1.515 Rosin (100 pounds).. (100 kilograms).. 0 o 47.000 103.616 o Burlap . Cotton 47.000 o 47.000 103.616 103.616 Rubber (pound).. (kilogram).. 0.419 0.924 Tallow ...(pound)., (kilogram).. 0.144 0.317 + 0 47.000 o 47.000 103.616 103.616 o 47.000 103.616 47.000 o 47.000 103.616 103.616 0.421 + 0.928 0.440 + 0.970 0.484 + 1.067 0.560 + 1.235 0.584 1.287 0.568 1.252 0.555 1.224 0.139 0.306 0.144 + 0.317 0.148 + 0.326 0.151 + 0.333 0.169 0.373 0.164 0.362 0.150 0.331 + o 47.000 103.616 + 0.580 1.279 0.148 0.326 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "NA", not available. x Average for July 5, 12, and 19. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ItCII JULY 1983 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT • Year and quarter b. Difference (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1980 First quarter . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 c. Percent change at annual rate Revised 1 (Anr . rate, bii dol.) Revised1 Revised (Ann rate, bil. dol.) 1 Hnllarc UOIIdlo c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference a. Tota Revised 1 213. Final sales in 1972 dollars 217. Per capita GNP in 1972 50. Gross national product i n 1972 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars a. Total G P AND f ERSONAL INCOME N > (Ann. rate, dollars) Revised i (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 2 ,572.9 2 ,578.8 2 ,639.1 2 ,736.0 73 .0 5 .9 60 .3 96 .9 11. 7 0. 9 9. 7 15. 5 1 ,496 .4 1 ,461 .4 1 ,464 .2 1 ,477 .9 5. 6 -35. 0 2. 8 13. 7 L.9 -9.0 (3.8 •3.8 6,600 6,427 6,421 6,464 1,496.9 1,463.6 1,474.4 1,482.5 2 ,866.6 2 ,912.5 3 ,004.9 3 ,032.2 130 .6 45 .9 92 .4 27 .3 20. 5 6. 6 13. 3 3. 7 1 ,510 . 1 1 ,512 .5 1 ,525 .8 1 ,506 .9 32. 2 2. 4 13. 3 -18. 9 3.0 (3.7 3.6 -4.9 6,592 6,588 6,629 6,529 1,507.0 1,503.6 1,509.7 1,500.9 3 ,021.4 3 ,070.2 3 ,090.7 3 ,109.6 -10 .8 48 .8 20 .5 18 .9 -1. 4 6. 6 2. 7 2. 5 ] ,485 .8 1 ,489 .3 1 ,485 .7 1 ,480 .7 -21. 1 3. 5 -3. 6 -5. 0 -5.5 1.0 -1.0 -1.3 6,424 6,425 6,393 6,355 1,495.9 1,492.7 1,487.0 1,503.4 3 ,171.5 P3 ,273.7 61 .9 plO2 .2 8. 2 5 1 ,490 . 1 Pi ,521 .4 9. 4 31. 3 2.6 p8.7 6,382 p6,502 1,505.5 pi,525.9 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 0 1 Year and quarter P13. •i GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued 224. Current dollars 225. Constant (1972) dollars First quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth quarter . . . . PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 230. Total in currenl dollars 231. Total in 1972 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars (Ann rate, bil. dol.) Disposable personal income (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised1 233. Durable goods in 1972 dollars 227. Per capita in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bi . dol.) 1980 P (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate dollars) Revised1 Revised1 Revised 1 Revised 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 1,771/7 1,789.8 1,846.0 l,908.( ) 1 ,02£ 1 ,012 '.0 1 ,01$).2 1 ,02<).6 4 ,524 4 ,451 4 ,469 4 ,503 1 ,620. 1 ,626. 1 ,683. 1 ,741 5 4 4 9 938 .3 919 .6 929 .4 940 .0 220.7 200.8 213.8 223.6 145.2 130.0 135.6 139.0 1,967.* 2,010.4 2,092.() 2,120.1 1 ,04C).7 1 ,04£5.6 1 ,06$L I 1 ,064k 3 4 ,543 4 ,554 4 ,640 4 ,612 1 ,802 1 ,835. 1 ,886 1 ,904 8 8 1 1 953 .6 954 .7 962 .9 955 .7 236.9 233.4 243.5 230.8 145.4 140.5 143.9 134.8 2,127.9 2,159.0 2,191.5 2,227.i 3 1 ,05£ 1 ,06C 1 ,05$).3 1 ,066 4 ,562 4 ,574 4 ,558 4 ,576 1 ,938 1 ,972 2 ,008 2 ,046 9 8 8 9 961 .4 968 .8 971 .0 979 .6 239.4 242.9 243.4 252.1 138.5 139.5 138.2 143.2 2,255.1) p2,302.8 1 , 0 7 : 5.8 Pi ,081 .6 4 ,599 P4 ,623 2 ,073 0 P2 ,151 3 986 .7 p i , 0 1 0 .5 258.5 p278.1 145.8 P156.4 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i . JULY 1983 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued H i i PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued M 1980 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars 238. Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars 237. Services in current dollars 239. Services in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Year and quarter (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 240. Total in current dollars G O S PRIVATEDOMESTIC INVESTMENT RS 242. Fixed investment, total, in current dollars 243. Fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised1 Revised1 241. Total in 1972 dollars First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 651.4 658.2 671.9 693.7 358.5 354.2 353.5 356.2 748.3 767.5 797.6 824.6 434.5 435.4 440.3 444.7 422.0 394.3 379.5 411.7 224.3 202.4 197.4 210.0 423.6 391.3 404.9 426.8 224.8 204.5 207.5 214.7 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 716.3 730.6 741.1 747.7 359.8 362.7 363.6 363.8 849.6 871.8 901.5 925.6 448.3 451.5 455.5 457.1 455.5 472.1 495.8 476.2 222.7 229.5 236.3 221.7 444.7 457.1 462.2 461.8 219.7 220.7 220.2 215.7 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 749.7 754.7 766.6 773.0 362.6 363.5 364.7 366.0 949.7 975.2 998.9 1,021.8 460.4 465.7 468.2 470.4 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 199.7 201.4 198.4 178.4 448.6 443.7 430.2 433.8 209.9 204.9 199.8 201.1 368.9 p374.3 1,037.4 pi,073.4 472.0 P479.8 404.1 p451.5 190.0 p208.5 443.5 p462.1 205.4 p213.0 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 777.1 • p799.8 • • GROSS PRIVATE • t i l DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. Year and quarter 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars O f 260. Total in current dollars 261. Total in 1972 dollars GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 262. Federal Government in current dollars 263. Federal Government in 1972 dollars 266. State and local government in current dollars 267. State and local government in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1980 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised1 Revised 1 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -1.6 3.0 -25.4 -15.1 -0.5 -2.1 -10.1 -4.7 517.6 535.5 539.1 559.0 284.0 286.8 284.0 282.5 188.1 199.0 194.5 206.6 105.8 109.3 106.2 104.2 329.6 336.5 344.6 352.4 178.1 177.5 177.8 178.3 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 10.9 15.0 33.6 14.3 3.0 8.9 16.1 6.0 576.3 583.5 600.3 622.8 285.6 284.1 286.8 289.6 215.7 220.4 232.4 248.5 107.3 107.9 111.8 114.5 360.5 363.2 367.9 374.3 178.3 176.2 175.0 175.1 -25.7 -11.2 -4.9 -56.4 -10.2 -3.4 -1.3 -22.7 629.8 631.6 655.7 679.7 289.4 285.8 292.2 299.7 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 114.5 110.3 116.9 124.4 380.0 387.5 394.0 400.5 174.9 175.4 175.3 175.2 -39.4 p-10.6 -15.4 p-4.5 677.4 p683.3 292.9 p292.2 273.5 p274.8 118.4 pll8.2 404.0 p408.6 174.5 P174.0 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue, page iii. 1 JULY 1983 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued • • NATIONAL INCOME 1 3 9 AND ITS COMPONENTS Q j FOREIGN TRADE 220. National in come in current Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services Year and quarter 255. Constant (1972) dollars 250. Current dollars 256. Constant (1972) dollars 252 Current dollars Hnllorc Qoiiars 257. Constant (1972) dollars 253. Current dollars 280. Compensation of am nlmittAC employees (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) •(Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 t Fe v i s e d 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 49.8' 52.6 53.4 45.4 335.3 336.8 337.6 345.4 164 .4 161 .0 156 .4 154 .7 322 514 300 322 5 2 5 0 114 .5 10€1.4 102 .9 10S .3 2,076. 2 2,072. 5 2,117. 7 2,200. 1 1, 555.6 1 , 574.8 1 , 604.5 1 , 663.6 31.9 21.1 22.8 29.2 48.3 44.1 39.8 39.9 367.3 369.2 367.5 371.0 160 .6 160 .7 159 .0 158 .7 335 ;348 344 341 4 1 7 7 112 .4 lie .6 US .1 11£ .8 2,295. 8 2,337. 2 2,423. 4 2,435. 6 1 , 718.8 1 , 750.9 1 , 791.7 1, 815.6 35.2 33.4 24.0 23.0 358.4 364.5 346.0 321.6 151 .8 154 .5 146 .4 136 .5 328 331 345 316 > 5 2 0 1 lie .6 .... 29.9 33.3 0.9 5.6 12] .1 122 .4 113 .5 2,419. 7 2,448. 9 2,458. 9 2,474. 0 1, 834.2 1 , 859.9 1 , 879.5 1, 889.0 .... 17.0 p-12.5 20.5 pl0.2 326.9 p321.7 137 .3 pl34 .2 309 .9 p334 .3 ne .8 I>124 .0 2,528. 5 (NA) 1 , 923.7 P i . 969.9 .... Third quarter Fourth quarter (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 12.8 22.5 37.1 23.3 First quarter Second quarter Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 1980 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) .... 1981 First quarter Second quarter .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1982 First quarter Second quarter .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... i Year Tear anrl ana quarter 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments | 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 288. Net i nterest 286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1980 Q N NATIONAL INCOME A D ITS COMPONENTS-Continued (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised1 Revised 1 (Ann rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 290. Gross saving (private and government) SAVING 295. Business saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised1 292. Personal saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised i 123 . 1 111 .7 116 .7 118 .3 29 .0 30 .1 32 .5 34 .4 187 168 170 175 3 3 6 6 181 .2 187 .6 193 .5 208 2 408 400 398 416 3 3 7 1 314.0 324.1 328.0 334.7 100.8 113.2 112.2 114.6 121 . 1 118 .9 123 .5 117 . 1 37 .4 39 .9 42 .7 45 .6 194 185 197 192 7 0 6 0 223 .7 242 6 268 .0 265 .3 461 475 507 490 8 8 6 1 356.6 365.1 381.9 393.8 112.2 120.2 149.7 159.0 111 .2 104 .9 103 .6 116 .2 47 .4 49 .0 50 .9 52 .3 162 166 168 161 0 8 5 9 265 .0 268 .3 256 .4 254 .7 434 439 397 351 4 5 9 3 383.3 393.6 401.9 405.8 130.8 127.1 123.0 120.8 120 .6 pl30 .1 54 .1 p54 .8 181 8 (NA) 248 .3 p244 .4 398 5 (NA) 419.7 (NA) 121.7 p89.4 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page 82 in. JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES iA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q Year and quarter Q SAVING-Continued 298. Government surplus or deficit, 293. Personal saving rate total (percent of disposable personal income) Percent of gross national product (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1980 SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME (Percent) 2 2 Revised Revised 235. Personal consumption expenditures, total 248. Nonresidential fixed investment Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 251. Net exports of goods and services ^Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 247. Change in business inventories 249. Residential fixed investment (Percent) Revised Revised2 2 -7.5 -38.1 -43.3 -33.9 5.7 6.3 6.1 6.0 63.0 63.1 63.8 63.7 12.1 11.6 11.7 11.6 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 -0.6 0.5 0.9 1.4 0.9 -8.1 -10.6 -25.2 -63.7 5.7 6.0 7.2 7.5 62.9 63.0 62.8 62.8 11.6 11.9 12.0 12.1 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 -79.7 -81.2 -127.0 -175.3 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.4 64.2 64.3 65.0 65.8 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 3.1 -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 -1.8 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.2 -142.9 (NA) First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 5.4 p3.9 65.4 p65.7 10.5 plO.2 3.5 p3.9 -1.2 p-0.3 0.5 p-0.4 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . Q j Year and quarter Percent of GNP-Continued Revised First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . F 'ercent of national income 2 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services 64. Compensation of employees (Percent) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services (Percent) 1980 SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued (Percent) Revised 2 Revised 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj' (Percent) 2 Revised 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj» 287. Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj» 289. Net interest (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Revised2 2 Revised2 Revised 2 7.3 7.7 7.4 7.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 12.9 74.9 76.0 75.8 75.6 5.9 5.4 5.5 5.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 9.0 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 8.2 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.3 74.9 74.9 73.9 74.5 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 8.5 7.9 8.2 7.9 9.7 10.4 11.1 10.9 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.0 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.9 75.8 75.9 76.4 76.4 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.5 11.0 11.0 10.4 10.3 8.6 p8.4 12.7 P12.5 76.1 (NA) 4.8 (NA) 2.1 (NA) 7.2 (NA) 9.8 (NA) 1.4 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1983 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY 0 1 PRICE Implicit price deflator, gross national product Year and month 310. Index 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans' (1972 = 100) 1981 (Ann. rate, percent) Revised2 Revised2 Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product 311. Index (1972 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) Revised2 189!c3 April May June 192! 6 July August September 19619 October November December 201.2 Consumer prices, food Consumer prices, all items 320. Index © 320c. Change over 1-month spansJ 320c. Change over 6-month spansl (1967 = 100) (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) 322. Index 322c. Change over 1-month spans' 322c. Change over 6-month spans' (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Revised 2 10.6 260.5 263.2 265.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 9.9 9.6 9.1 268.9 270.3 272.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 6.9 4.7 3 8 8.1 266.8 269.0 271.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 10.0 10.1 10.6 272.3 272.4 272.9 0.1 0.0 0 2 4.8 4.9 4 5 9.2 274.4 276.5 279.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 10.5 9.6 8.8 275.3 276.9 278.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 7.2 279.9 280.7 281.5 0.4 0.5 04 6.9 5.3 3 1 278.7 278.9 279 4 0.3 0.1 02 4.4 4.2 3 5 4.9 282.5 283.4 283.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 4.0 5.5 281.3 282.6 282.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 3.3 4.7 5.6 4.5 284.3 287.1 290 6 0.2 1.0 1 1 6.1 6.6 6 9 283.3 285.4 287 1 0.2 0.7 06 4.5 3.1 3 4 5.8 292.2 292.8 293 3 0.6 0.3 0.1 7.2 5.1 2 3 287.6 286.9 287 5 0.2 -0.2 02 3.4 2.0 0 7 3.8 294.1 293.6 292.4 0.4 0.0 -0.3 1.4 0.4 0.5 288.1 288.2 288.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.6 293.1 293.2 293.4 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.9 288.3 288.3 290.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 p5.3 10.6 January February March 311c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 MOVEMENTS 295.5 297.1 298.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 291.3 292.2 291.3 0.4 0.3 -0.3 197!6 5.9 2O6! 9 9.4 205^3 9.0 208.9 1982 January February March 203^4 April May June 206.2 July August September 208.'6 October November . . December 2l6!6 4.3 21ll4 5.6 213!8 3.7 216!8 3.8 218.*8 1983 January February March April May June . 5.5 21^8 220.8 p4.5 p215!2 p223!6 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued H Q | PRICE MOVEMENTS--Continued Year and month 330. Index © (1967 = 100) 330c. Change over 6-month spansl <§) 330c. Change over 1-month spans' © 335. Index © (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) Producer prices, crude materials Producer )rices, industrial commodities Producer prices, all commodities (1967 = 100) 335c. Change over 1-month spans' ® (Percent) 335c. Change over 6-month spansl ® (Ann. rate, percent) 331. Index (1967 = 100) 331c. Change over 1-month spansl (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 1981 January February March 284.8 287.6 290.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 11.5 11.0 10.2 291.5 295.7 299.6 1.7 1.4 1.3 15.8 15.6 13.3 330.0 332.6 330.6 0.9 0.8 -0.6 5.0 1.9 5.1 April May June 293.4 294.1 294.8 1.1 0.2 0.2 8.2 6.2 3.8 303.5 304.7 305.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 10.3 7.9 5.3 333.6 332.4 335.5 0.9 -0.4 0.9 3.7 0.2 -1.9 July August September 296.2 296.4 295.7 0.5 0.1 -0.2 1.8 1.0 0.7 306.2 307.2 307.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.7 3.0 3.2 336.1 333.0 327.4 0.2 -0.9 -1.7 -8.4 -11.8 October November December 296.1 295.5 295.8 0.1 -0.2 0.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 309.0 309.3 310.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 3.7 2.9 2.4 322.5 318.1 315.1 -1.5 -1.4 -0.9 -9.2 -8.9 -6.3 January February March 298.3 298.6 298.0 0.8 0.1 -0.2 1.3 2.1 2.4 311.8 311.6 311.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 320.2 317.9 317.0 1.6 -0.7 -0.3 -1.1 5.3 6.9 April May June 298.0 298.6 299.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 309.9 309.6 310.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 320.8 326.4 325.8 1.2 1.7 -0.2 1.2 0.8 -1.0 July August September 300.4 300.2 299.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 312.8 313.2 312.7 0.7 0.1 -0.2 2.9 3.5 3.0 322.1 319.1 315.4 -1.1 -0.9 -1.2 -4.0 -5.5 -5.6 October November December 299.8 300.3 300.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 rO.5 0.8 314.3 315.0 315.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.7 r0.4 0.4 314.3 317.3 316.6 -0.3 1.0 -0.2 -3.9 r-1.4 2.6 299.9 r300.9 300.5 -0.3 rO.3 r-0.1 0.7 0.9 1.2 313.9 r313.9 313.4 -0.4 rO.O r-0.2 -1.1 -0.8 0.1 315.8 r316.8 319.4 -0.3 r0.3 r0.8 6.2 4.2 4.4 300.8 301.7 302.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 312.6 313.8 315.4 -0.3 0.4 0.5 323.9 323.9 323.5 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -6.5 1982 1983 January February March April May June . . . . July August September October November . . . December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. Changes are centered within the spans: ISO JULY 1983 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Q | Producer prices, intermediate materials Year and month 332. Index (1967=100) Producer prices, capital equipment 332c. Change over 6-month spans' 332c. Change over 1-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued 333. Index (1967 = 100) 333c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) Producer prices, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1967=100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans' 334c. Change over 6-month spans' (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1981 0.4 0.9 11.4 10.6 9.4 253.5 256.1 258.1 304.2 305.6 307.0 1.0 0.5 7.3 7.7 0.5 July August September 307.6 309.6 309.9 October November December 297.0 298.3 301.1 January February March 1.2 1.1 1.0 10.1 262.2 264.8 267.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 10.7 9.7 9.6 1.0 0.2 0.5 8.2 6.2 4.9 0.8 10.5 11.0 0.8 0.8 9.8 8.8 5.9 260.2 262.3 264.1 0.7 8.1 270.3 270.8 272.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 4.1 3.4 2.6 265.6 267.1 268.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 7.9 7.8 7.3 272.8 272.9 274.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 310.3 310.7 311.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.8 0.9 -0.2 270.3 272.3 273.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 7.1 5.6 5.7 275.3 275.9 277.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 3.8 4.0 2.1 January February March 311.9 311.0 309.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -0.8 274.9 274.5 276.0 0.5 -0.1 0.5 4.6 4.1 4.4 278.0 278.3 277.0 0.4 0.1 -0.5 1.5 0.7 2.2 April May June 308.4 308.7 309.7 -0.4 0.1 0.3 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 276.5 277.8 279.5 0.2 0.5 0.6 4.1 5.8 4.3 277.3 276.9 280.0 0.1 -0.1 1.1 2.5 3.1 4.4 July August September 310.3 310.3 310.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.0 1.4 280.5 282.3 281.9 0.4 0.6 -0.1 4.0 3.9 3.5 281.5 282.6 283.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 5.2 6.8 5.1 October November December 310.9 311.7 311.8 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 r-0.3 -1.6 282.0 283.1 284.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 2.4 rl.9 3.4 284.4 286.2 287.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.1 r0.6 -0.7 310.1 r309.8 308.3 -0.5 r-0.1 r-0.5 -2.1 -1.8 -0.3 283.9 r285.0 286.7 -0.2 r0.4 r0.6 2.8 2.5 2.0 283.1 r283.4 282.0 -1.4 rO.l r-0.5 -1.7 -2.3 -1.8 307.6 308.9 311.4 -0.2 0.4 0.8 285.9 286.6 287.3 -0.3 0.2 0.2 282 0 282.9 284 4 0.0 April May June .... 1982 1983 January February March April May June 0.3 0.5 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. Changes are centered within the spans: 1 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjusted' Year and month 340. Index (1977 = 100) 340c. Change over 1-month spans 2 (Percent) Current-dollar compensation Real earnings Current-dollar earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index (1977 = 100) 341c. Change over 1-month spans 2 (Percent) 341c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1977 = 100) 345c. Change over 1-quarter spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 1981 January February March 133.8 135.0 135.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 9.4 8.6 8.8 92.9 93.0 93.0 April May June 136.7 137.5 138.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 7.9 8.2 8.5 July August September . . . 139.0 140.4 141.4 0.5 1.0 0.7 October November . . . December . . . 141.9 143.0 143.3 January February March 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 93. 92, 92, 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -1.7 -1.5 -2.0 141.6 7.7 8.1 7.5 92, 92, 92.0 -0.7 0.2 -0.3 -2.4 -1.1 -1.0 144.8 0.3 0.8 0.3 8.7 6.8 6.0 92.0 92.4 92.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 2.1 1.8 3.3 147.4 144.9 145.1 145.5 1.1 0.1 0.3 6.5 6.4 6.6 93.1 93.1 93.5 0.9 0.1 0.4 3.9 2.5 1.3 150.3 April May June 146.4 147.5 148.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 5.4 6.3 6.3 93.8 93.5 92.8 152.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.9 July August September . . . 148.8 149.6 150.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 5.9 4.9 5.4 92.8 93.0 93.1 154.9 0.2 -1.5 -0.2 2.8 October November . . . December . . . 150. 151. 151.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 5.4 5.1 4.6 93.1 93.4 94.1 -0.1 0.4 0.8 4.2 5.1 4.1 157.0 152.7 153.4 153.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 r4.5 r4.7 p3.8 94.7 95.3 95.0 0.6 0.7 -0.3 r3.8 r2.8 pi.3 159.3 rl54.0 rl54.6 P154.8 rO, rO. pO.l 94.8 r94.7 p94.7 -0.2 r-0.1 11.9 9.4 139.3 7.0 8.9 9.2 7.9 7.5 7.6 1982 7.9 7.0 5.9 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.5 (NA) 1983 January February March April May June 6.0 (NA) (NA) pO.O July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 2 JULY 1983 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued B 348. First year average changes Real compensation 346. Index (1977 = 100) 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans! 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans! (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries ® Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector-Continued Year and month W G S AND AE (Ann. rate, percent) 349. Average changes over life of contract (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons private business sector 370. Index (1977 = 100) 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour all persons, nonfarm business sector (1977 = 100) 1981 1.2 January February March 96.0 April May June 95 7 July August September 95.2 -1.3 I06! 7 11.6 2.2 1 n 1 .U 100 7 10.5 8.1 11.0 5.8 ?:! inn 1 1.2 ioi!6 0.3 100.4 0.0 10.8 -0 6 -2.5 5.7 7.2 95.1 October November December 7.7 -1.3 -0.6 106 .'6 -CL3 99.'i -2.8 100.3 1982 4.8 January February March 9613 April May June , 0.6 96."4 July August September 96"! 1 October November December 97.0 -1.2 i:i i'.i 1.9 -0.8 CK3 2.6 4.7 p2'.5 3.3 4.8 100.4 (NA) 100.4 3.7 101.3 (NA) 99.5 1.3 2.1 100.4 6.2 99.3 i'.l 100.1 2i3 3.5 1.2 io2!6 2.6 1983 6.4 January February March April May June (NA) p-1.8 pi.4 p2.2 98.5 pl0l!6 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. Changes are centered within the spans: on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT D 1 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE ANDMAJOR COMPONENTS Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total 442. Employed Number unemployed Labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over 452. Females 20 years and over 453. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 37. Total (Thous.) 444. Males 20 years and over 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 447. Fulltime workers (Thous.) 448. Number employed part-time for economic reasons (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 108,012 108,175 108,471 99,964 100,143 100,504 79.1 79.1 79.2 51.8 51.9 52.0 56.6 56.5 56.3 8,048 8,032 7,967 3,479 3,500 3,439 2,809 2,766 2,765 1,760 1,766 1,763 6,620 6,602 6,541 4,467 4,182 4,222 April May June 108,866 109,101 108,440 101,006 100,968 100,393 79.3 79.4 78.9 52.2 52.4 52.2 56.9 56.2 54.4 7,860 8,133 8,047 3,353 3,540 3,492 2,760 2,846 2,830 1,747 1,747 1,725 6,429 6,617 6,581 4,149 4,242 4,088 July August September 108,602 108,762 108,375 100,748 100,709 100,104 78.9 78.9 78.7 52.2 52.1 51.7 54.5 55.2 54.9 7,854 8,053 8,271 3,343 3,513 3,559 2,867 2,849 2,953 1,644 1,691 1,759 6,428 6,473 6,762 4,432 4,448 4,612 October November December 109,028 109,254 109,066 100,355 100,229 99,677 78.7 78.7 78.8 52.3 52.4 52.2 54.9 55.0 53.9 8,673 9,025 9,389 3,815 4,026 4,367 3,043 3,105 3,174 1,815 1,894 1,848 7,137 7,442 7,990 4,948 5,005 5,325 January February March 109,034 109,364 109,478 99,688 99,695 99,597 78.6 78.7 78.6 52.2 52.3 52.5 54.2 54.5 53.8 9,346 9,669 9,881 4,362 4,451 4,607 3,109 3,286 3,402 1,875 1,932 1,872 7,822 8,000 8,346 5,066 5,489 5,611 April May June 109,740 110,378 110,147 99,484 99,994 99,681 78.7 78.9 78.8 52.5 52.8 52.9 54.2 55.2 53.0 10,256 10,384 10,466 4,770 4,818 5,016 3,528 3,568 3 565 1,958 1,998 1 885 8,575 8,689 8 878 5,750 5,731 5 561 July August September 110,416 110,614 110,858 99,588 99,683 99,543 78.8 78.7 79.0 53.0 53.0 52.9 53.2 54.2 54.3 10,828 10,931 11,315 5,150 5,232 5,578 3,672 3,671 3,710 2,006 2,028 2,027 9,036 9,209 9,622 5,577 5,820 6,495 October November December 110,752 111,042 111,129 99,176 99,136 99,093 78.9 78.9 78.7 52.8 52.9 53.1 54.1 54.4 53.9 11,576 11,906 12,036 5,714 5,865 5,909 3,824 3,989 4,071 2,038 2,052 2,056 9,942 10,127 10,285 6,403 6,411 6,425 January February March 110,548 110,553 110,484 99,103 99,063 99,103 78.1 78.2 78.1 52.9 52.9 52.8 53.5 52.7 52.8 11,446 11,490 11,381 5,597 5,749 5,581 3,963 3,925 3,889 1,886 1,815 1,911 9,810 9,872 9,751 6,845 6,481 6,202 April May June 110,786 110,749 111,932 99,458 99,557 100,786 78.3 78.3 78.6 52.8 52.7 53.1 52.6 52.2 55.4 11,328 11,192 11,146 5,702 5,605 5,288 3,729 3,744 3,859 1,897 1,843 1,999 9,702 9,438 9,294 6,082 5,928 5,729 1981 January February March . ... 1982 1983 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q [ Federal Government Year and month Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES State and local governmentsl 1 Advance measures of defense activity 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1981 500. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised Revised DEFENSE INDICATORS Revised 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred 525. Defense Department military prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding 548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 2 January February March -43^4 617.4 660.8 35.3 4li.3 376.0 14,808 15,741 15,560 7,155 7,514 7,590 82,087 83,608 84,883 4,480 5,060 3,785 April May June -47.'3 622! 6 669*.9 36i7 415.9 379i2 15,210 15,699 15,156 8,505 7,967 7,041 84,994 85,165 86,126 4,041 5,170 5 057 July August September -62!4 638! 8 70i'.2 37^3 421'.6 384'.3 16,836 17,374 16,584 8,845 9,504 9,325 87,968 89,857 91,896 5,317 5,440 5,435 October November December -95*.8 629.'2 725'.6 32.6 423*.4 391A 12,892 15,674 19,805 4,466 9,817 9,049 91,354 92,575 93,827 4,711 5,269 5,244 January February March . . . -108*. 5 619!5 728!6 28.'8 42^9 397 .*2 19,361 20,608 18,869 9,756 13,761 9,870 98,818 102,677 105,418 7,151 6,922 April May June -113.2 622^2 735.4 32.6 436.8 404'.8 20,793 17,786 17,503 10,518 9,657 14,296 108,428 108,841 109,654 6,204 5,013 5 994 July August September -15&\3 615^2 77^5 31.*3 442.'8 4li!4 17,669 16,448 18,387 8,610 8,928 10,296 110,885 110,787 111,857 5,195 5,656 3,638 October November December -208.2 612*6 820 .*9 3^9 45o! 7 417.*8 16,476 18,599 24,396 5,423 10,209 17,298 111,866 113,647 119,788 5,621 5,663 11,207 -183.3 623.3 806.6 40.4 461.7 421.3 21,340 19,502 20,444 16,908 13,042 7,351 122,628 123,803 125,570 9,568 5,319 6,569 (NA) (NA) P815.2 (NA) (NA) p425.*7 19,332 P19.554 (NA) 10,132 plO,lll (NA) 126,165 pl26,532 (NA) 7,079 r4,782 p8,502 1982 .. . c coo 1983 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. 1 Based on national income and product accounts. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page 90 JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year month 557. Output of defense and space equipment 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products 580. Defense Department net outlays (1967 = 100) and (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products 570. Employment in defense products industries (Mil. dol.) (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 577. Military, active duty (u) (Thous.) 578. Civilian, direct hire employment <§) (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1981 1 565. Federal purchases as a percent of GNP (Percent) C1) January February March 100.9 100.5 100.7 11,113 11,318 11,547 67,999 69,269 69,109 12,639 12,932 12,619 3,613 3,790 3,945 1,391 1,388 1,390 2,056 2,061 2,062 973 972 974 143.3 5.0 April May June 101.5 102.0 101.7 11,823 11,959 12,352 69,265 70,594 71,692 12,833 13,433 13,264 3,885 3,841 3,959 1,393 1,393 1,395 2,060 2,064 2,070 980 990 1,008 151.2 5.2 July August September . . . 102.6 102.8 103.0 12,417 12,457 12,747 72,912 74,129 75,490 13,889 13,809 14,014 4,097 4,223 4,074 1,394 1,397 1,397 2,082 2,084 2,083 1,023 1,017 984 154.9 5.2 October November . . . December . . . 104.5 105.3 107.0 12,857 13,227 13,386 76,042 77,133 78,076 14,277 14,548 15,298 4,159 4,178 4,301 1,392 1,385 1,390 2,090 2,097 2,093 998 1,006 1,009 166.7 r5.5 January February March 105.2 106.5 107.0 13,676 13,864 14,059 81,144 83,719 85,990 14,152 14,689 15,075 4,083 4,347 4,417 1,386 1,380 1,377 2,104 109 107 1,008 1,013 1,018 168.1 r5.6 April May June 107.2 107.7 107.6 14,209 14,276 14,431 87,917 88,258 89,371 15,670 15,379 15,334 4,277 4,672 4,881 1,376 1,372 1,371 106 104 2,108 1,022 1,028 1,045 175.2 r5.7 July August September . . . 109, 109. 109. 14,437 14,700 15,039 89,708 90,598 89,255 16,312 15,050 16,881 4,858 4,766 4,981 1,372 1,364 1,366 2,110 2,109 2,109 1,051 1,043 990 183.6 5.9 October November . . . December . . . 111.9 113.6 115.9 15,334 15,568 15,983 89,866 90,561 96,691 15,972 17,087 16,779 5,010 4,968 5,077 1,363 1,363 1,359 2,108 2,114 2,113 1,016 1,024 1,027 190.8 6.1 January . February March . . 116.4 116.1 rll7.0 16,538 16,501 16,824 101,116 101,179 102,632 17,058 16,772 16,804 5,143 5,255 5,116 1,355 1,358 1,355 120 122 127 1,024 1,028 1,030 194.4 r6.1 April . May . June . rll8.2 rll8.7 P120.0 16,850 17,240 104,440 rl04,046 plO7,233 17,529 rl6,854 pl7,113 5,271 r5,176 p5,312 1,358 pi,361 (NA) 2,123 2,120 p2,116 1,029 1,040 (NA) p201.9 p6.2 1982 1983 (NA) July August . . September October... November . December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,' page i i i . JULY 1983 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Q H MERCHANDISE TRADE Year and month 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total 604. Exports of agricultural products (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (Mil. dol.) 612. General imports, total (Mil. dol.) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (Mil. dol.) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (Mil.dol.) 1981 January February March 18,902 19,788 21,278 4,295 3,977 4,201 4,058 4,155 4,352 22,616 21,916 21,029 7,359 8,018 5,992 2,264 1,742 2,125 April May June 19,786 18,899 19,750 3,604 3,708 3,256 4,311 4,160 4,388 22,249 21,232 22,005 6,919 6,329 6,521 2,042 2,299 2,257 July August September 19,289 19,031 19,551 3,089 3,202 3,563 4,567 6,207 4,559 20,114 23,242 21,274 5,400 6,335 5,709 2,108 2,635 1,943 October November December 19,163 19,153 18,885 3,735 3,442 3,220 4,338 4,366 4,005 23,077 22,508 19,746 6,123 6,483 4,636 2,464 2,239 2,164 January February March 18,584 18,614 18,462 3,258 3,590 3,225 4,346 4,054 3,997 22,573 19,570 20,018 6,810 4,396 4,290 2,389 2,135 2,596 April May June 18,005 18,124 18,823 3,400 3,527 3,332 3,932 3,957 4,211 17,714 20,477 21,187 3,894 4,180 4,855 2,389 2,785 2,626 July August September 18,060 17,463 17,320 2,789 2,763 2,648 4,305 3,856 4,197 19,849 22,930 20,581 5,624 5,731 4,903 2,455 2,795 2,370 October November December 16,671 15,852 16 347 2,681 2,783 2 637 3,829 3,686 3,719 21,006 18,892 19,154 5,433 4,757 4,694 2,444 2,130 2,189 January February March 17,393 16,326 16,752 3,128 2,985 2,811 3,644 3,359 3,499 20,021 19,015 19,525 4,166 2,859 3,261 2,329 3,019 2,676 April May June 16,074 15,566 2,891 2,715 (NA) 3,513 3,433 (NA) 19,771 21,514 (NA) 3,252 5,284 (NA) 2,746 3,001 (NA) 1982 1983 (NA) July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 92 JULY 1983 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES El U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Q [ GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Year and month 667. Balance (Mil.dol.) 668. Exports (Mil.dol.) Income on investments Merchandise, adjusted' Goods and services 669. Imports (Mil. dol.) 622. Balance (Mil. dol.) 618. Exports (Mil.dol.) 620. Imports (Mil.dol.) 651. U.S. investments abroad (Mil.dol.) 652. Foreign investments in the United States (Mil.dol.) 1981 January February March 4,839 93,786 88,947 -4,482 60,793 65,275 20,683 12,477 April May June 2,309 94,534 92,225 -7,342 60,03i 67,373 21,7U 13,505 July August September 1,801 93,082 91,281 -8,402 57,8i?. 66,2114 22,043 13,888 October November December . . 2,57i 93,221 90,650 -7,841 58,383 66,224 21,801 12,892 January February March 2,625 89,761 87,136 -6,103 55,636 61,739 20,761 13,824 April May June 3,236 90,790 87,554 -5,854 54,996 60,850 22,316 14,779 July August September -4,854 86,932 91,786 -13,078 52,24i 65,3i9 21,569 14,748 October November December -4,190 80 840 85 030 -11 354 48 344 59 698 19 499 13 491 p-1,482 p81,171 p82,653 p-8,738 p49,563 p58,301 pl7,814 pl2,579 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1982 1983 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. 1 Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). JULY 1983 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q 47. United States, index of industrial production Year and month (1967 = 100) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 721. OECD' European countries, index of industrial production 728. Japan, index of industrial production 725. West Germany, index of industrial production 726. France, index of industrial production 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 727. Italy, index of industrial production 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) Revised 1981 2 151.4 151.8 152.1 154 159 158 226.9 225.8 226.3 156 164 160 156 159 157 116 117 117 158.6 170.3 169.3 163.8 166.0 168.0 April May June 151.9 152.7 152.9 156 156 155 226.6 223.3 228.3 160 160 156 156 159 160 117 116 118 168.4 158.0 159.8 169.7 170.2 172.7 July August September 153.9 153.6 151.6 158 152 158 230.7 229.6 233.1 157 157 160 157 157 160 118 118 118 165.2 137.2 164.1 170.4 164.5 163.8 October November December 149.1 146.3 143.4 158 158 156 234.5 234.5 233.9 160 157 156 160 159 160 121 120 118 158.4 168.1 160.4 161.3 158.4 157.2 January February March 140.7 142.9 141.7 156 158 158 232.6 231.2 233.2 160 161 161 157 156 156 118 118 120 161.9 169.8 165.7 156.2 154.7 152.5 April May June 140.2 139.2 138.7 156 156 154 230.2 228.1 231.2 160 157 154 157 157 157 120 120 118 164.7 162.7 154.9 150.5 151.8 148.0 July August September 138.8 138.4 137.3 152 151 152 229.9 230.9 231.7 150 rl53 152 154 154 154 rll8 120 120 159.6 146.4 154.1 143.3 149.5 144.5 October November December 135.7 134.9 135.2 151 151 150 225.5 230.6 228.4 150 150 149 156 156 154 120 117 120 149.7 155.5 151.8 140.0 141.0 138.9 January February March 137.4 138.1 r140.0 rl54 154 rl54 229.4 228.3 233.4 152 152 154 156 156 156 120 122 120 152.0 155.3 rl52.5 146.4 rl49.6 rl48.3 April May June 142.7 144.3 P145.9 pl54 (NA) 232.6 (NA) 153 pl53 (NA) pl56 (NA) pl21 (NA) pl44.8 (NA) rl50.8 P153.1 (NA) January February March . . . 1982 1983 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pace 58. 'Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 94 JULY 1983 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q Japan United States Year and month 320. Index © (1967 = 100) 320c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index ® (1967 = 100) CONSUMER PRICES 738c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index ® United Kingdom France West Germany 735c. Change over 6-month spans' 736. Index ® (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) 736c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index ® (1967 = 100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1981 January February March 260.5 263.2 265.1 9.9 9.6 9.1 291.1 290.8 292.2 4.4 3.1 3.8 180.9 182.3 183.5 6.6 6.2 5.7 312.7 315.6 318.8 13.2 13.0 13.0 445.5 449.5 456.2 13.0 12.1 11.6 April May June 266.8 269.0 271.3 10.0 10.1 10.6 294.5 297.0 297.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 184.7 185.4 186.3 6.3 6.7 6.9 323.1 326.0 329.2 13.8 14.3 15.3 469.4 472.4 475.2 12.5 12.1 10.7 July August September 274.4 276.5 279.3 10.5 9.6 8.8 296.4 294.7 299.5 3.9 4.1 4.2 187.1 187.7 188.6 6.9 7.1 6.9 334.9 339.0 342.9 14.9 15.7 15.1 477.3 480.8 483.5 10.4 11.8 12.5 October November December 279.9 280.7 281.5 6.9 5.3 3.1 300.7 299.8 299.8 4.0 3.3 2.4 189.2 190.1 190.7 6.3 4.8 3.5 347.1 350.3 352.4 13.9 13.6 13.0 487.9 493.0 496.1 11.5 9.9 10.0 January February March 282.5 283.4 283.1 2.9 4.0 5.5 300.7 299.8 300.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 192.3 192.8 193.1 3.0 3.5 4.9 356.0 359.6 363.8 13.0 12.0 12.0 499.0 499.1 503.5 8.4 7.3 6.0 April May June 284.3 287.1 290.6 6.1 6.6 6.9 302.9 303.8 303.8 -0.5 2.9 4.0 194.0 195.2 197.1 4.9 5.4 6.3 368.2 371.1 373.7 9.9 8.2 7.2 513.6 517.3 518.9 6.0 6.0 4.7 July August September 292.2 292.8 293.3 7.2 5.1 2.3 301.5 303.8 309.1 4.4 4.1 3.7 197.6 197.3 197.9 6.8 5.9 4.0 374.7 375.9 377.5 5.8 6.9 7.3 518.9 519.0 518.7 5.3 5.3 4.2 October November December 294.1 293.6 292.4 1.4 0.4 0.5 310.0 306.6 306.0 4.0 0.7 0.9 198.5 198.9 199.4 2.7 2.3 0.9 379.5 383.2 386.4 9.5 10.3 10.8 521.3 523.9 522.9 4.0 5.6 4.6 January February March 293.1 293.2 293.4 0.8 1.9 2.9 306.6 305.5 307.5 -0.3 1.7 (NA) 199.8 200.0 199.8 0.0 0.4 (NA) 390.1 392.9 396.5 12.3 11.2 (NA) 523.5 525.8 526.7 2.3 1.7 2.8 April May June 295.5 297.1 298.1 1982 1983 308.6 312.0 (NA) 200.3 201.1 (NA) 401.8 404.5 (NA) 534.1 536.4 537.7 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 1 JULY 1983 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued [ 1| CONSUMER PRICES—Continued Q Italy 737. Index ® 737c. Change over 6-month spans' Year and month Canada 733. Index ® 733c. Change over 6-month spans* STOCK PRICES 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (u) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (§) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices ® 746. France, index of stock prices @ 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices © 747. Italy; index of stock prices ® 743. Canada, index of stock prices <u) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) January February March 440.7 449.1 455.4 20.1 20.1 19.3 259.1 261.7 265.2 13.1 12.2 13.2 144.6 139.7 144.9 457.9 458.2 467.3 115.3 114.0 116.3 191.1 201.1 209.4 259.0 269.0 273.2 110.0 122.1 125.9 223.7 218.6 233.9 April May June 461.3 468.7 473.9 18.9 18.2 16.8 267.2 269.6 273.8 12.3 12.3 11.9 146.2 143.3 143.9 494.6 502.8 515.2 122.7 122.1 126.1 197.7 162.5 152.3 293.2 295.6 289.0 132.4 135.9 123.5 232.3 245.7 242.9 477.7 481.0 487.7 17.7 16.8 17.0 276.2 278.2 280.2 12.2 12.2 11.0 140.5 141.0 128.7 534.4 540.7 511.3 127.5 122.5 122.5 168.9 177.4 176.5 284.8 298.6 278.9 99.1 112.0 99.1 232.3 231.6 192.3 497.5 506.0 511.1 15.8 15.3 15.6 283.0 285.4 286.7 10.6 10.9 11.2 130.3 133.7 134.7 493.8 505.6 512.7 118.8 118.0 117.7 163.9 169.2 170.7 259.5 278.0 284.2 91.2 93.8 96.9 190.4 208.9 201.2 January February March 517.7 524.4 529.1 13.8 13.6 13.1 288.7 292.1 295.8 10.5 11.4 11.4 127.6 124.6 120.6 518.9 516.9 486.2 116.8 118.4 120.1 185.7 193.1 145.9 291.1 300.1 298.8 95.0 98.8 104.2 185.3 176.7 173.1 April May June 533.9 539.8 545.2 15.9 19.0 18.7 297.5 301.5 304.5 11.1 10.2 9.5 126.5 126.6 119.7 484.5 503.4 489.6 120.6 117.6 114.2 184.8 183.3 166.3 303.2 315.4 314.6 96.7 91.0 83.1 171.2 168.4 153.8 July August September 553.4 563.4 571.3 20.6 19.8 19.1 306.1 307.6 309.2 9.4 8.2 7.2 119.0 119.3 133.2 480.8 474.3 481.6 113.5 112.3 115.6 161.1 169.3 168.4 313.2 320.1 343.5 78.4 86.1 85.8 156.8 177.4 177.3 October November December 582.7 590.3 594.4 16.7 13.7 14.4 311.2 313.3 313.4 5.7 4.7 5.0 144.3 150.2 151.6 490.4 512.7 528 2 118.2 118.8 124 3 170.7 174.5 169 9 360.7 372.0 365 0 86.4 88.8 192.6 189.7 Ql 9 1QQ C January February March 602.7 610.5 616.0 12.9 13.2 (NA) 312.5 313.9 317.1 3.8 2.8 (NA) 156.9 159.7 165.2 533.3 530.8 544.2 126.0 131.9 143.9 181.8 188.5 204.7 371.9 381.6 388.3 95.5 109.1 118.7 210.0 216.6 219.5 April May June 622.2 628.2 (NA) 171.6 178.5 181.0 559.7 573.4 583.3 157.0 158.6 159.5 215.6 rp226.5 rp224.9 410.4 rp404.9 rp412.5 115.8 111.6 rplll.9 240.0 251.8 rp252.7 pl82.5 p601.4 pl66.2 p235.2 (NA) pll2.0 p257.2 1981 July August September . . . October November December 1982 1983 317.1 317.9 (NA) July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 1 96 JULY 1983 APPENDIXES B. Current Adjustment Factors Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 1983 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 144.9 105.9 91.4 94.2 84.5 92.1 85.7 80.4 88.4 96.9 123.9 90.6 112.0 100.8 101.1 106.6 98.2 101.3 98.9 99.3 91.5 103.9 Series 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 13. New business incorporations 1 96.2 15. Profits after 2 taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing 33. Net change in mortgage debt 13 111.3 105.5 97.4 98.3 98.7 -1696 -1977 -1102 -169 -67 1253 -292 1010 1390 100.4 99.9 99.9 100.0 99.4 99.6 99.2 99.9 100.5 108.7 90.8 103.9 104.4 87.8 85.9 90.8 84.0 128.0 122.5 95.7 95.6 96.2 95.1 88.2 81.4 80.9 199.2 89.3 101.3 91.2 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding 102.8 102.0 101.8 102.5 101.3 98.5 97.0 94.6 98.1 100.7 100.2 100.2 570. Employment in defense products industries 100.4 100.2 100.3 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.4 99.9 99.9 100.2 100.3 100.2 104.2 99.8 98.3 100.3 95.3 100.0 101.1 93.7 84.5 87.9 89.5 106.6 111.9 110.2 93.6 111.8 100.9 103.0 109.1 98.2 98.2 96.7 103.9 95.7 96.9 92.0 111.0 94.6 104.8 91.2 104.2 93.2 91.2 103.1 101.2 94.5 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars'* 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred1 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 580. Defense Department net outlays 1 89.9 93.2 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 99.6 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 91.4 .. . 1 614. Imports of petroleum and products . . . . 616. Imports of automobiles and parts 1 .... 99.3 76.0 109.7 96.6 109.8 97.7 101.1 113.4 103.1 106.6 105.0 100.0 101.1 106.6 86.3 99.8 98.7 83.1 103.1 111.7 100.6 108.4 109.4 90.0 361 543 825 100.8 101.0 NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. "These factors apply to only the loans portion of this series. 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year Jan. Mar. Feb. 1. 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978. 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... Apr. My a June July Aug. Oct. Sept. Nov. Dec. IQ 39.3 40.8 40.6 41.1 39.6 40.0 40.8 40.5 39.0 39.8 40.2 38.4 40.3 40.2 40.6 41.1 41.4 40.9 40.7 40.7 40.5 39.5 40.2 40.5 40.6 39.3 40.2 40.0 40.4 40.6 40.1 40.1 39.2 39.0 39.3 39.7 40.9 40.7 41.0 39.6 40.5 40.6 40.3 38.7 40.2 40.2 39.3 40.3 40.4 40.4 41.3 41.5 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.2 39.8 40.3 40.7 40.4 39.0 40.3 40.1 40.0 40.6 40.0 40.0 38.7 AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING (HOURS) II Q III Q IV Q Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 39.4 39.6 40.8 40.7 41.0 39.5 40.3 40.8 40.3 38.8 40.1 40.5 39.2 40.0 40.4 40.1 41.2 39.4 39.7 40.8 40.7 41.0 39.7 40.5 40.6 40.4 38.6 40.2 40.1 39.3 40.3 40. 3 40.6 41.2 39.1 39.7 41.0 40.6 41.1 39.5 40.7 40.4 40.2 38.7 40.4 39.9 39.4 40.5 40.4 40.6 41.4 38.8 40.1 41.2 40.1 41.1 39.4 40.6 40.6 40.1 38i6 40.5 39.7 39.6 40.7 40.2 40.8 41.0 38.9 40.2 40.9 40.4 40.9 39.5 40.9 40.2 39.8 38.8 40.6 40.0 39.6 40.5 40.5 40.7 41.2 38.9 40.5 40.7 40.5 40.7 39.6 40.6 40.1 39.9 39.0 40.5 39.8 39.9 40.4 40.6 40.7 41.1 39.1 40.8 40.5 40.1 40.6 39.6 40.6 40.2 39.9 39.2 40.2 39.8 40.0 40.4 40.5 40.8 41.1 39.0 41.1 40.2 40.5 40.4 39.7 40.6 40.2 39.8 39.4 40.3 39.7 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.9 41.0 39.4 40.8 40.4 41.0 39.8 39.5 40.7 40.4 39.7 39.6 40.1 39.4 39.5 40.5 40.6 40.5 40.8 39.4 40.9 40.2 41.1 40.0 39.6 40.9 40.5 39.3 39.5 40.1 39.6 40.2 40.2 40.6 40.6 41.2 39.0 40.9 40.3 41.0 39.8 40.1 41.0 40.4 39.2 39.8 39.8 39.2 40.5 40.3 40.5 40.8 41.3 41.0 40.3 40.7 40.4 39.9 40.2 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.5 39.7 40.4 40.9 40.4 40.2 39.7 40.4 40.9 40.4 38.9 40.3 40. 3 40.4 40.7 40.8 40.1 39.8 40.4 40.8 40.4 38.8 40.2 40.2 40.5 40.0 40.7 39.9 39.7 40.7 40.9 39.3 39.2 39.6 40.4 40.4 40.9 40.7 39.8 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.3 39.0 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.9 40.7 39.9 40.0 40.6 40.6 40.2 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.5 40.8 40.6 40.0 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.2 39.4 40.3 40.3 40.6 40.2 40.3 37.5 40.6 40.1 39.8 39.5 40.6 39.8 39.9 39.0 39.2 39.7 40.0 39.0 40.2 39.4 40.2 39.1 40.2 39.2 40.0 39.1 40.2 39.1 39.9 39.1 40.6 40.7 40.6 39.8 39.8 40.6 40.5 40.2 39.7 40.1 40.4 40.5 40.1 39.4 39.9 39.0 40.7 40.9 40.7 39.3 39.4 40.6 40.7 40.0 39.9 39.8 40.4 40.6 40.2 39.7 39.5 38.8 40.6 40.9 40.6 39.5 39.9 40.7 40.6 40.0 39.8 40.0 40.5 40.5 40.2 39.7 39.6 38.9 40.6 40.8 40.4 39.5 40.0 40.8 40.7 39.5 39.9 40.1 40.4 40.6 40.1 39.9 39.4 39.0 21. AVERAGE WEEKLY OVERTIME HOURS DF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING (HOURS) 38.9 40.3 40.9 40.3 40.9 39.5 40.7 40.3 39.9 38.8 40.5 39.8 39.7 40.5 40.4 40.7 41.1 41.4 40.4 40.6 40.7 39.9 39.9 40.6 40.7 39.9 39.1 40.0 40.4 40.6 39.9 39.4 40.1 39.1 39.2 40.9 40.4 40.5 40.3 39.6 40.6 40.3 39.8 39.4 40.2 39.6 39.9 40.4 40.5 40.7 41.0 41. 3 40.6 40.8 40.6 39.7 39.7 40.6 40.6 40.1 39.7 40.1 40.4 40.6 40.2 39.4 39.8 39.0 39.2 40.9 40.4 41.1 39.8 39.9 40.9 40.5 39.2 39.7 40.0 39.1 40.3 40.2 40.6 40.8 41.3 41.1 40.6 40.8 40.5 39.5 40.0 40.7 40.6 39.6 40.0 40.0 40.4 40.6 40.1 39.9 39.4 39.0 39.1 40.5 40.6 40.7 40.5 39.6 40.7 40.4 39.8 39.2 40.3 39.7 39.8 40.4 40.5 40.7 41.2 41.4 40.6 40.7 40.6 39.8 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 AVERAGE FOR °ERIOD 1951... 1952... 1954... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1982... 1983... 3.1 2.8 1.8 2.5 3.0 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.4 2.8 3.1 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 1.8 2.6 2.8 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.9 1.7 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 1.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.6 3.1 1.8 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.1 1.9 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.9 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.2 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.3 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.0 2. 9 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.1 2. 9 2.3 2.6 3.6 3.9 2.9 3.0 2.4 3.8 3.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.9 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.9 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.7 1.8 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.7 3.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.8 3.8 2.0 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.6 2.8 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.0 2.4 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.6 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.5 2.9 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.9 3.7 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.4 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.4 2.5 3.3 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.2 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.5 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.2 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 40. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES—MINING, MANUFACTURING, AND CONSTRUCTION (THOUSANDS) 17,978 17,563 20,041 20,014 21,073 20,219 19,832 20,997 21,196 20,183 20,061 20,789 18,195 17,119 19,988 20,146 21,235 20,163 19,984 21,087 21,278 19,730 20,121 20,903 20,122 20,463 20,608 21,459 22,615 23,488 23,336 24,119 24,190 22,941 23,226 24,391 25,200 23,296 23,057 23,631 24,794 26,275 26,496 25,600 24,711 20,304 20,425 20,830 21,560 22,793 23,389 23,542 24,229 24,198 22,841 23,269 24,618 25,219 22,777 23,159 23,777 24,857 26,288 26,382 25,516 24,670 20,328 20,447 20,832 21,606 22,950 23,314 23,542 24,306 24,204 22,828 23,406 24,702 25,139 22,478 23,230 23,990 25,055 26,489 26,268 25,579 24,483 1949... 1950... 1951... 18,394 17,389 19,817 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... NOTE: 20,066 21,295 20,030 20,191 21,024 21,269 19,504 20,315 20,636 17,778 17,808 20,094 17,537 18,198 20,088 17,401 18,424 20,080 17,332 18,680 20,045 21,304 19,877 20,367 21,137 21,192 19,266 20,520 20,721 19, W£>f 6 Ot 2 X7 20,526 20,615 20,875 21,642 23,002 23,282 23,663 24,310 24,027 22,917 23,484 24,745 25,094 22,328 23,354 24,178 25,449 26,446 25,941 25,530 24,307 21,296 19,727 20,526 21,135 21,124 19,165 20,644 20,653 19 745 X 7 , / *T-J 20,516 20,681 20,915 21,763 23,082 23,211 23,694 24,358 23,744 22,977 23,588 24,804 25,054 22,352 23,315 24,306 25,502 26,516 25,594 25,503 24,226 21,278 19,646 20,641 21,207 21,092 19,178 20,765 20,544 19 880 20,473 20,650 20,958 21,849 23,250 23,200 23,717 24,445 23,649 22,918 23,661 24,919 25,003 22,291 23,320 24,438 25,658 26,606 25,316 25,654 24,001 19,511 21,266 19,476 20,626 20,596 21,026 19,219 20,793 20,451 19 878 20,526 20,697 21,020 21,941 23,291 23,236 23,758 24,497 23,598 22,885 23,574 24,931 24,911 22,251 23,365 24,522 25,729 26,622 25,047 25,720 23,843 These series contain revisions beginning with 1978. 19,074 19,919 20,149 21,142 19,418 20,661 21,124 20,942 19,320 20,273 20,375 19 967 21,068 19,479 20,675 21,137 20,843 19,494 20,242 20,255 19,963 2o!717 21,088 22,032 23,363 23,238 23,796 24,486 23,467 22,844 23,694 24,981 24,834 22,445 23,358 24,508 25,781 26,485 25,208 25,653 23,672 20^745 21,225 22,134 23,299 23,226 23,831 24,477 23,375 22,982 23,795 24,977 24,726 22,616 23,512 24,622 25,829 26,496 25,270 25,586 23,530 19,219 19,809 19,435 19,834 20,582 20,889 19,547 20,789 21,261 20,741 19,426 20,127 20,151 20 004 20^552 20,769 20,983 22,206 23,373 23,205 23,872 24,442 22,830 22,933 24,004 25,109 24,587 22,727 23,417 24,662 25,977 26,479 25,394 25,445 23,287 19,510 19,853 20^638 19,705 20,876 21,214 20,539 19,817 20,339 20,012 20 144 20^505 20,707 21,307 22,373 23,419 23,440 23,972 24,300 22,702 23,038 24,121 25,214 24,216 22,762 23,557 24,741 26,119 26,386 25,513 25,242 23,131 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.8 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 17,358 19,533 19,957 20,934 20,471 19,748 20,942 21,292 20,418 19,838 20,720 19,752 20,200 20,428 20,723 21,402 22,536 23,467 23,474 24,092 24,353 23,014 23,067 24,188 25,268 23,659 22,887 23,575 24,745 26,231 26,444 25,588 24,992 23,061 17,357 19,949 20,075 21,201 20,137 20,002 21,036 21,248 19,806 20,166 20,776 19,618 20,251 20,445 20,757 21,542 22,786 23,397 23,473 24,218 24,197 22,870 23,300 24,570 25,186 22,850 23,149 23,799 24,902 26,351 26,382 25,565 24,621 18,143 20,087 19,925 21,293 19,750 20,511 21,160 21,136 19,203 20,643 20,639 19,751 20,505 20,649 20,916 21,751 23,111 23,231 23,691 24,371 23,807 22,937 23,578 24,823 25,050 22,324 23,330 24,307 25,536 26,523 25,617 25,562 24,178 17,409 18,991 19,924 20,027 21,159 19,458 20,654 20,952 20,937 19,344 20,436 20,360 19,936 20,540 20,720 21,111 22,036 23,318 23,233 23,795 24,487 23,480 22,904 23,688 24,963 24,824 22,437 23,412 24,551 25,780 26,534 25,175 25,653 23,682 17,085 19,493 19,881 20,770 20,666 19,667 20,869 21,256 20,566 19,694 20,395 19,972 20,116 20,495 20,733 21,231 22,372 23,420 23,373 23,979 24,365 22,849 23,013 24,104 25,197 24,154 22,792 23,516 24,716 26,109 26,436 25,498 25,226 23,160 17,565 18,506 19,959 20,198 21,074 19,751 20,513 21,104 20,964 19,513 20,411 20,434 19,857 20,451 20,640 21,005 21,926 23,158 23,308 23,737 24,361 23,578 22,935 23,668 24,893 24,794 22,600 23,352 24,346 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,907 (JULY 1983) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. 41. 1949.. 1950.. 1951.. 1952.. 1953.. 1954.. 1955.. 1956.. 1957.. 1958.. 1959.. I960.. 1961.. 1962.. 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 1966.. 1967.. 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976.. 1977.. 1978.. 1979.. 1980.. 1981.. 1982.. 1983.. 44,631 43,472 47,227 48,229 50,043 49,340 49,363 51,880 52,808 52,002 52,410 54,184 53,524 54,703 55,927 57,281 59,419 62,415 65,240 66,656 69,297 71,059 70,752 72,357 75,521 78,020 77,153 78,317 80,527 84,478 88,733 90,804 90,920 90,396 Mar. 44,399 43,175 47,519 48,491 50,271 49,270 49,523 52,096 53,000 51,448 52,558 54,406 53,373 54,996 56,039 57,621 59,710 62,766 65,224 67,026 69,575 71,201 70,689 72,542 75,923 78,181 76,743 78,614 80,783 84,800 88,957 90,895 90,990 90,417 44,169 43,816 47,700 48,450 50,360 49,081 49,867 52,141 53,052 51,131 52,863 54,348 53,462 55,109 56,157 57,686 59,921 63,129 65,305 67,156 69,803 71,363 70,766 72,850 76,168 78,184 76,429 78,828 81,228 85,339 89,374 90,933 91,030 90,207 14,055 12,677 16,503 19,632 21,227 21,000 20,529 24,515 28,695 29,171 28,567 31,433 32,999 33,582 36,039 38,931 43,562 53,195 61,876 67,254 77,048 88,521 90,944 84,478 94,279 113,967 140,652 125,349 124,450 135,158 156,487 191,892 211,841 252,112 13,979 12,764 17,116 19,641 21,277 21,064 20,692 24,686 28,720 28,835 28,583 31,870 32,966 33,712 36,126 39,195 44,618 54,071 62,404 67,415 77,843 90,023 91,625 85,260 98,034 116,322 139,605 125,758 125,824 135,658 158,818 196,003 212,204 257,318 13,861 12,763 17,579 19,761 21,430 21,036 20,916 25,414 29,182 28,728 28,820 32,093 33,111 33,907 36,251 39,201 45,563 54,805 63,100 67,732 79,091 91,243 91,904 86,195 100,124 117,738 138,152 123,490 126,179 138,536 160,803 198,987 210,484 259,299 101. 1949.. 1951.. 1952.. 1953.. 1954.. 1955.. 1956.. 1957.. 1958.. 1959.. I960.. 1961.. 1962.. 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 1966.. 1967.. 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976.. 1977.. 1978.. 1979.. 1980.. 1981.. 1982.. 1983.. 18,953 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ ll Q 19,158 44,057 44,238 47,849 48,476 50,367 48,984 50,106 52,302 53,029 50,787 53,190 54,561 53,485 55,384 56,398 57,846 60,080 63,318 65,373 67,422 69,980 71,283 70,969 73,079 76,308 78,239 76,333 79,142 81,615 86,064 89,324 90,718 91,128 90,024 43,806 44,589 47,803 48,478 50,343 48,857 50,414 52,387 52,999 50,760 53,382 54,366 53,664 55,514 56,534 57,974 60,389 63,595 65,478 67,519 70,197 70,998 71,129 73,346 76,473 78,381 76,470 79,188 81,984 86,396 89,663 90,255 91,131 90,016 43,582 44,953 47,915 48,130 50,386 48,810 50,705 52,454 52,961 50,822 53,603 54,292 53,922 55,563 56,571 58,128 60,590 63,989 65,642 67,779 70,478 70,888 71,136 73,639 76,743 78,443 76,400 79,264 82,392 86,833 89,980 89,937 91,322 89,775 43,415 45,361 47,923 47,992 50,385 48,689 50,823 51,764 52,970 50,915 53,683 54,230 54,052 55,663 56,705 58,309 60,868 64,166 65,816 67,979 70,629 70,927 71,169 73,576 76,713 78,492 76,640 79,469 82,743 87,060 90,082 89,674 91,484 89,450 43,490 46,035 47,806 48,687 50,272 48,644 50,905 52,396 52,918 51,118 53,230 54,198 54,232 55,796 56,832 58,510 61,072 64,306 65,933 68,189 70,742 70,750 71,168 73,908 77,009 78,511 77,034 79,591 82,954 87,319 90,150 89,932 91,424 89,264 43,708 46,304 47,743 49,076 50,216 48,752 51,085 52,446 52,825 51,359 53,265 54,069 54,303 55,860 56,971 58,777 61,333 64,367 66,074 68,333 70,800 70,815 71,499 74,107 77,170 78,542 77,216 79,857 83,460 87,470 90,212 90,092 91,411 89,235 43,148 46,654 48,026 49,710 49,824 49,102 51,491 52,722 52,458 51,831 53,503 53,843 54,636 55,943 57,125 59,080 61,859 64,839 66,570 68,837 70,921 70,264 71,723 74,904 77,867 78,234 77,582 80,122 84,012 88,233 90,465 90,606 91,041 88,785 43,497 46,756 48,119 49,933 49,627 49,242 51,721 52,865 52,281 51,968 54,033 53,571 54,739 55,915 57,251 59,320 62,209 65,042 66,767 69,151 71,119 70,661 71,977 75,164 77,933 77,531 77,878 R0,310 84,260 88,534 90,596 90,805 90,730 88,665 44,400 43,488 47,482 48,390 50,225 49,230 49,584 52,039 52,953 51,527 52,610 54,313 53,453 54,936 56,041 57,529 59,683 62,770 65,256 66,946 69,558 71,208 70,736 72,583 75,871 78,128 76,775 78,586 80,846 84,872 89,021 90,877 90,980 90,340 43,815 44,593 47,856 48,361 50,365 48,884 50,408 52,381 52,996 50,790 53,392 54,406 53,690 55,487 56,501 57,983 60,353 63,634 65,498 67,573 70,218 71,056 71,078 73,355 76,508 78,354 76,401 79,198 81,997 86,431 89,656 90,303 91,194 89,938 12,604 15,462 19,194 21,031 21,451 19,955 23,771 28,199 29,573 28,342 31,076 33,118 33,280 35,939 3fi,579 42,068 51,650 61,043 66,161 74,374 88,070 91,082 92,301 91,408 110,877 139,734 126,131 123,317 133,272 152,486 183,895 208,596 243,965 268,847 12,573 15,986 19,411 21,133 21,058 20,314 24,110 28,395 29,517 28,496 31,28fl 33,018 33,429 35,986 39,045 42,737 52,300 61,332 67,068 75,150 89,059 91,069 91,788 92,111 111,764 139,873 126,245 124,225 134,372 152,870 186,969 210,377 246,682 263,475 13,965 12,735 17,066 19,678 21,311 21,033 20,712 24,872 28,866 28,911 28,657 31,799 33,025 33,734 36,139 39,109 44,581 54,024 62,460 67,467 77,994 89,929 91,491 85,311 97,479 116,009 139,470 124,866 125,484 136,451 158,703 195,627 211,510 256,243 13,392 13,009 18,393 19,840 21,746 20,809 21,420 26,393 29,729 28,267 29,569 32,632 33,018 34,300 36,608 39,858 47,043 56,248 64,093 69,181 82,304 91,880 91,086 87,839 103,336 124,835 133,904 121,292 127,885 143,065 169,019 199,528 219,543 268,033 17,950 17,857 17,813 19,333 19,619 19,768 23,320 23,421 23,686 25,742 26,360 26,741 27,197 27,070 26,501 24,917 25,147 25,705 29,079 29,633 30,055 33,420 33,741 33,844 35,265 34,711 34,514 32,866 32,973 33,152 36,011 36,245 36,492 38,243 38,384 38,316 38,739 38,815 38,891 41,353 41,654 41,866 43,945 44,713 45,482 48,183 48,757 49,532 57,520 58,255 58,630 66,685 67,357 67,679 72,374 72,946 73,432 78,474 79,528 80,049 89,909 90,053 90,680 91,540 90,952 90,875 89,418 89,160 87,836 89,784 90,235 89,255 94,132 94,848 93,840 96,817 96,836 97,134 84,553 84,312 84,163 78,258 79,151 79,074 80,203 80,527 80,752 83,426 84,200 83,719 89,670 88,581 89,160 87,521 89,029 89,218 96,724 98,333 99,308 108,923 106,643 104,347 19,045 17,978 20,383 24,215 26,906 26,363 26,054 30,687 34,258 33,622 33,241 36,885 38,181 39,081 42,097 45,385 51,432 59,994 68,947 73,144 82,167 90,720 90,037 86,844 91,376 92,634 97,055 82,858 78,626 80,469 84,431 89,954 87,613 102,307 18,743 18,133 22,028 24,655 27,504 26,070 26,933 32,064 35,147 32,844 34,199 37,789 38,526 39,954 42,733 46,468 53,713 62,227 70,905 74,533 85,645 92,309 88,586 88,547 92,379 96,271 92,206 79,328 78,249 81,904 86,821 89,944 88,917 106,898 42,823 46,530 47,833 49,436 50,114 48,828 51,308 52,667 52,673 51,379 53,203 53,982 54,375 55,919 57,148 58,658 61,538 64,614 66,091 68,569 70,957 70,383 71,485 74,537 77,506 78,599 77,479 79,847 83,659 87,788 90,367 90,364 91,295 88,938 13,605 12,849 18,079 19,742 21,675 20,967 21,049 25,932 29,503 28,554 29,092 32,293 33,079 34,121 36,458 39,554 46,203 55,377 63,598 68,877 81,132 91,333 90,891 87,342 101,768 122,857 136,564 120,789 126,925 140,620 166,262 199,207 214,356 264,651 13,409 12,936 18,453 19,809 21,816 20,811 21,416 26,448 29,650 28,168 29,573 32,591 33,020 34,269 36,626 39,882 47,209 56,139 63,998 69,067 82,277 91,864 91,662 87,906 103,074 125,111 133,750 121,069 127,740 143,029 168,693 197,502 220,005 268,405 13,163 13,242 18,646 19,969 21,747 20,650 21,796 26,799 30,033 28,079 30,042 33,011 32,955 34,509 36,740 40,137 47,718 57,228 64,682 69,598 83,502 92,444 90,706 88,268 105,166 126,537 131,397 122,018 128,990 145,547 172,102 201,874 224,269 271,042 12,833 13,619 18,757 20,141 21,778 20,651 22,244 27,145 30,245 28,039 30,026 32,993 33,012 34,740 36,872 40,428 48,072 58,223 65,083 70,294 83,909 92,433 89,951 88,429 106,581 130,706 130,713 121,328 128,860 146,937 175,813 200,401 228,645 271,707 12,660 14,057 18,865 20,190 21,934 19,804 22,664 27,418 30,285 27,941 30,456 32,840 33,131 35,038 37,047 40,839 49,139 59,360 64,862 71,359 85,141 93,072 91,627 88,800 108,505 133,304 129,579 121,083 130,214 147,792 179,510 201,140 233,421 272,101 12,641 14,696 18,968 20,381 21,819 19,753 22,977 27,778 30,374 28,122 30,646 32,956 33,214 35,318 37,341 41,418 50,141 59,950 65,155 72,318 86,404 93,435 93,437 88,593 108,458 137,429 128,146 120,710 130,848 148,769 184,298 202,808 238,357 273,934 12,670 15,027 19,111 20,650 21,640 19,718 23,421 27,858 29,969 28,215 30,915 32,996 33,215 35,635 37,821 41,625 50,812 60,578 65,644 73,153 87,358 91,680 92,465 90,502 109,664 138,352 126,999 121,770 132,174 150,501 184,899 204,099 240,455 274,160 19,025 18,870 18,767 18,592 21,548 22,080 22,456 24,478 24,594 24,893 27,465 27,530 27,518 26,173 26,013 26,023 26,418 27,025 27,355 31,644 32,061 32,487 34,895 35,114 35,431 33,178 32,688 32,667 33,633 34,190 34,775 37,334 37,726 38,308 38,435 38,512 38,631 39,696 39,918 40,249 42,684 42,718 42,797 46,075 46,515 46,813 53,017 53,971 54,150 61,294 62,128 63,258 70,672 70,799 71,243 74,406 74,352 74,840 85,004 85,520 86,412 91,848 92,384 92,696 88,811 89,202 87,744 88,492 88,615 88,534 92,854 92,195 92,089 95,832 96,165 96,815 94,508 91,988 90,121 79,362 79,286 79,336 77,820 77,938 78,990 81,096 81,918 82,697 86,102 86,598 87,762 90,261 89,045 90,526 87,030 89,107 90,614 105,776 107,062 107,856 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1978. 2 18,153 17,881 17,827 22,738 23,020 23,176 24,973 24,933 25,270 27,222 27,529 27,236 25,918 24,855 24,893 27,918 28,329 28,489 32,993 33,150 33,324 35,454 35,456 35,651 32,620 32,547 32,758 34,844 35,477 35,474 38,191 38,206 38,340 38,551 38,642 38,738 40,416 40,711 40,729 42,789 43,100 43,497 47,033 47,571 48,004 54,552 55,763 56,830 63,909 64,859 65,514 71,605 71,508 71,827 75,442 76,795 77,580 86,725 88,027 89,249 92,271 93,307 93,195 86,825 88,185 90,298 87,989 88,183 87,803 94,487 90,951 92,462 96,249 94,811 97,884 88,619 87,317 85,889 78,377 78,472 77,777 78,765 79,690 79,785 83,062 83,593 83,437 88,393 89,710 90,698 88,282 87,490 87,948 91,936 93,781 95,996 107,735 107,934 109,007 This series contains revisions beginning with 1966. III Q IV Q Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 43,538 45,900 47,824 48,585 50,291 48,695 50,938 52,202 52,904 51,131 53,393 54,166 54,196 55,773 56,836 58,532 61,091 64,280 65,941 68,167 70,724 70,831 71,279 73,864 76,964 78,515 76,963 79,639 83,052 87,283 90,148 89,899 91,440 89,316 43,156 46,647 47,993 49,693 49,855 49,057 51,507 52,751 52,471 51,726 53,580 53,799 54,583 55,926 57,175 59,019 61,869 64,832 66,476 68,852 70,999 70,436 71,728 74,868 77,769 78,121 77,646 80,093 83,977 88,185 90,476 90,592 91,022 88,796 43,754 45,197 47,819 48,793 50,202 48,990 50,641 52,369 52,853 51,324 53,268 54,189 53,999 55,549 56,653 58,283 60,765 63,901 65,803 67,897 70,384 70,880 71,214 73,675 76,790 78,265 76,945 79,382 82,471 86,697 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,596 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING IN 1972 DOLLARS 2 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 19,901 20,348 20,899 24,083 24,191 24,371 26,787 26,924 27,006 26,249 26,437 26,402 25,835 25,970 26,358 30,356 30,445 31,259 34,070 34,056 34,648 34,023 33,588 33,254 33,151 33,170 33,403 36,523 37,030 37,103 38,150 38,112 38,280 38,873 39,072 39,298 41,874 42,082 42,334 45,008 45,542 45,606 50,362 51,454 52,479 59,357 59,903 60,721 68,150 68,832 69,859 73,346 72,911 73,174 81,559 82,028 82,914 89,515 90,769 91,875 90,091 90,011 90,009 86,555 86,558 87,419 90,219 92,051 91,857 92,581 92,687 92,634 97,540 97,083 96,542 83,233 83,505 81,836 78,816 78,788 78,275 80,451 79,940 81,015 84,405 84,388 84,500 89,669 89,704 90,490 88,599 87,869 86,370 100,644 102,640 103,637 June My a COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING IN CURRENT DOLLARS 2 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 72. 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... Apr. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS, ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY 1 (THOUSANDS) 12,711 14,124 18,863 20,237 21,844 20,069 22,628 27,447 30,301 28,034 30,376 32,930 33,119 35,032 37,087 40,895 49,117 59,178 65,033 71,324 85,151 92,980 91,672 88,607 107,848 133,813 129,479 121,040 129,974 147,833 179,874 201,450 233,474 272,581 12,616 15,492 19,239 20,938 21,383 19,996 23,767 28,151 29,686 28,351 31,093 33,044 33,308 35,853 38,482 42,143 51,587 60,984 66,291 74,226 88,162 91,277 92,185 91,340 110,768 139,320 126,458 123,104 133,273 151,952 185,254 207,691 243,701 268,827 13,171 13,840 18,390 20,173 21,571 20,477 22,132 26,716 29,646 28,391 29,924 32,601 33,118 34,730 37,079 40,501 48,082 57,608 64,469 70,549 83,403 91,517 91,608 88,274 104,858 128,494 132,328 122,576 129,154 144,825 173,212 201,074 227,057 266,421 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 17,954 18,625 22,978 25,059 27,329 25,222 28,245 33,156 35,520 32,642 35,265 38,246 38,644 40,619 43,129 47,536 55,715 64,761 71,647 76,606 88,000 92,924 88,436 87,992 92,633 96,315 87,275 78,209 79,413 83,364 89,600 87,907 93,904 108,225 17,873 19,573 23,476 26,281 26,923 25,256 29,589 33,668 34,830 32,997 36,249 38,314 38,815 41,624 44,713 48,824 58,135 67,240 72,917 79,350 90,214 91,122 88,805 89,758 94,273 96,929 84,343 78,828 80,494 83,782 89,137 88,589 98,122 106,638 18,404 18,577 22,216 25,052 27,165 25,728 27,705 32,394 34,939 33,026 34,739 37,809 38,541 40,320 43,168 47,053 54,749 63,555 71,104 75,908 86,507 91,769 88,966 88,285 92,665 95,537 90,220 79,806 79,196 82,380 87,497 89,099 92,139 106,017 (JULY 1983) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. My a June July Aug. 109. AVERAGE PRIME RATE CHARGED BY BANKS (PERCENT) 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 2.00 2.00 2.44 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.34 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.96 6.00 6.95 8.50 6.29 5.18 6.00 9.73 10.05 7.00 6.25 7.93 11.75 15.25 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.75 6.00 7.00 8.50 5.88 4.75 6.02 9.21 8.96 6.75 6.25 8.00 11.75 15.63 1982... 1983... 15.75 16.56 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.13 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.35 5.71 6.00 7.24 8.39 5.48 4.75 6.30 8.83 7.93 6.75 6.25 8.00 11.75 18.31 18. 05 16.50 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.03 3.00 3.00 3.65 4.00 3.83 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.50 5.50 6.20 7.50 8.00 5.25 4.98 6.60 10.02 7.50 6.75 6.25 8.00 11.75 19.77 17.15 16.50 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.75 4.00 3.50 4.23 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.00 5.42 5.00 7.01 11.25 7.40 6.75 6.41 8.27 11.75 16.57 19.61 16.50 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.75 4.00 3.50 4.50 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.52 5.50 6.50 8.23 8.00 5.50 5.04 7.49 11.54 7.07 7.20 6.75 8.63 11.65 12.63 20.03 16.50 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.75 4.00 3.50 4.50 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.75 5.50 6.50 8.50 8.00 5.90 5.25 8.30 11.98 7.15 7.25 6.75 9.00 11.54 11.48 20. 39 16.26 1 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2.00 2.25 2.62 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.40 4.00 4.50 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 6.00 5.50 6.00 8.50 7.50 5.91 5.73 9.94 11.68 7.96 6.78 7.52 9.94 14.39 13.79 18.45 12.52 2.00 2.25 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 6.00 5.68 6.20 8.50 7.28 5.47 5.75 9.75 10.83 7.53 6.50 7.75 10.94 15.55 16.06 16.84 11.85 2.00 2.25 2.85 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.92 6.00 6.00 6.60 8.50 6.92 5.25 5.79 9.75 10.50 7.26 6.35 7.75 11.55 15.30 20.35 15.75 11.50 2.00 2.00 2.48 3.00 3.00 3.21 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.11 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.12 5.81 6.00 7.06 8.46 5.88 4.89 6.11 9.26 8.98 6.83 6.25 7.98 11.75 16.40 19.21 16.27 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.18 3.00 3.00 3.72 4.00 3.61 4.24 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.51 5.50 6.40 7.74 8.00 5.39 5.01 7.03 10.94 7.32 6.90 6.47 8.30 11.72 16.32 18.93 16.50 12.6 20.6 10.8 17.5 -6.2 3.8 17.0 21.7 6.9 15.9 -0.3 18.2 15.3 8.8 0.8 12.1 11.6 6.1 10.0 11.5 11.2 13.4 1.3 21.6 10. 2 15.4 11.7 -1.5 20.8 13.5 8.4 1.5 16.1 10.3 5.1 12.1 12.7 10.9 12.2 7.5 5.5 8.7 11.9 4.0 36.8 4. 5 14.9 7.6 -3.0 20.4 10.4 7.3 6.4 15.2 6.6 7.7 11.8 12.9 11.7 12.0 14.0 18.4 8. 7 20.7 -1.1 5.8 23.4 11.3 14.5 8.5 l'2.'l 9.2 2.9 10.4 11.4 6.6 9.5 12.4 13.9 10.7 10.3 18.0 12.1 6.9 4.8 13.7 8.8 7.1 11.6 12.7 11.1 12.0 6.6 6.1 9.5 8.4 4. 3 8.8 11.2 6.8 IQ 4.8 18.1 24.9 3.4 13.5 2.3 16.3 12.4 7.1 0.0 10.9 12.9 5.4 11.1 12.4 9.5 14.6 11.4 5.7 5.0 12.9 8. 0 10.2 10. 5 23.6 13.7 4.1 5.5 15.8 13.6 15.3 6.8 7.9 7.9 4.2 19.1 24.2 9.8 14.9 -2.0 16.2 13.7 8.5 1.4 12.1 10.2 7.3 8.9 11.7 10.6 13.2 4.3 4.2 15.4 3.0 14.5 6.9 23.6 12.6 5.7 5.6 14.2 13.7 18.7 14.9 7.9 8.4 2.4 13.7 16.1 7.5 19.2 -1.3 22.1 19.8 10.7 1.0 13.3 11.6 5.5 9.9 10.4 13.4 12.3 8.9 4.1 11.2 10.1 5.1 8.6 18. 4 17.5 9.0 -3.2 12.4 14.1 18.0 11.3 12.1 3.2 2.8 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.23 3.84 4.42 3.50 4.50 4.85 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.88 5.50 6.50 8.50 8.00 6.00 5.27 9.23 12.00 7.66 7.01 6.83 9.01 11.91 11.12 *ir\ crt 20 . 50 14.39 -0.38 1.25 6.20 2.65 1.13 -0.70 2.58 4.86 3.60 -4.15 0.85 1.74 -0.23 1.84 0.64 -1.37 9.90 10.74 6.53 2.23 22.78 -6.46 -1.50 26.02 26.44 9.35 -10.75 2.70 9.43 43.40 59.08 17.57 65.16 -0.91 1.04 7.36 0.11 0.60 0.77 1.96 2.05 0.30 -4.03 0.19 5.24 -0.40 1.56 1.04 3.17 12.67 10.51 6.34 1.93 9.54 18.02 8.17 9.38 45.06 28.26 -12.56 4.91 16.49 6.00 27.97 49.33 4.36 62.47 -1.42 -0.01 5.56 1.44 1.84 -0.34 2.69 8.74 5.54 -1.28 2.84 2.68 1.74 2.34 1.50 0.07 11.34 8.81 8.35 3.80 14.98 14.64 3.35 11.22 25.08 16.99 -17.44 -27.22 4.26 34.54 23.82 35.81 -20.64 23.77 2.00 2.03 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.16 3.86 4.31 3.61 4.67 4.78 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.88 5.50 6.47 8.50 7.94 5.97 5.34 9.13 11.99 7.56 7.09 6.90 9.14 12.12 11.61 20. 32 14.72 2.00 2.25 2.74 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.47 4.00 4.50 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.64 6.00 5.73 6.27 8.50 7.23 5.54 5.76 9.81 11.00 7.58 6.54 7.67 10.81 15.08 16.73 17.01 11.96 4.0 18.9 1.1 30.5 -3.3 39.7 4.1 32.0 11.1 38.7 16.7 18.9 12.8 15.7 18.0 13.7 -2.9 21.7 14.4 8.1 0.7 16.6 9.3 5.0 12.2 12.9 11.9 13.6 22.9 5.5 -1.2 22.6 10.8 8.7 3.0 17.0 11.1 6.2 11.8 11.7 10.0 10.4 16.8 9.7 2.9 20.3 10.0 8.8 5.3 16.1 6.2 6.2 11.8 13.1 12.0 10.5 10.6 9.6 -15.1 21.5 10.8 6.1 4.1 16.0 5.7 8.0 12.2 12.7 10.4 12.6 17.4 3.5 3.2 19.3 10.5 7.1 9.7 13.6 8.0 9.0 11.4 12.9 12.8 12.8 4.1 11.2 14.7 1.6 5.6 15. 5 15.4 18.5 -0.5 5.6 15.3 15.3 17.7 0.6 10.0 6.6 4.2 7.8 10.6 3.8 10.7 13.6 16.6 13.9 -1.7 10.7 15.6 18.4 14.6 -5.2 8.2 7.1 10.3 6.3 7.5 14. 7 16.4 8.9 0.1 11.9 16.3 17.1 14.4 1.6 6.4 9.1 6.4 5.9 8.6 11.7 14.7 15.0 6.2 9.0 13.4 13.9 14.7 0.1 5.2 9.5 8.9 6.4 16.0 6.7 9.9 9.9 7.2 16.1 23.6 2.2 4.3 9.9 7.7 2.1 8.2 13.1 6.3 7.9 13.3 14.5 9.6 9.6 4.4 6.6 10.8 8.0 -0.3 7.0 21.1 0.7 10.5 15.2 11.2 1.9 10.4 10.9 8.1 10.1 13.1 14.7 9.7 10.9 4.4 9.2 12.1 7.3 2.0 11.5 15.0 11.3 4.6 9.8 16.9 13.6 13.4 7.0 8.0 12.2 4.3 10.3 14.8 12.5 15.2 7.4 11.3 4.1 7.5 13.7 15.1 12.9 10.6 8.2 10.6 5.4 6.0 13.2 16.2 14.6 6.3 10.5 7.3 1.9 9.0 13.4 15.3 12.2 8.2 7.3 21.6 11.8 2.2 7.8 14.7 15.1 15.1 11.3 7.9 14.6 16.1 13.8 -0.7 9.4 15.7 16.9 15.6 -1.0 13.6 12.8 12.6 12.8 5.0 9.7 15.0 13.3 14.4 4.8 9.5 16. 2 9.7 3.8 7.5 13.4 15.5 13.2 8.4 8.7 4.7 3.2 -1.9 1.4 1.2 -4.1 -5.6 -8.1 6.4 4.8 0.2 -5.9 -2.08 5.26 1.30 0.59 1.87 -10.16 5.04 3.28 0.48 -1.18 5.16 -1.84 1.43 3.58 2.10 4.93 12.80 13.64 -2.65 12.78 14.78 7.67 20.11 4.45 23.09 31.18 -13.61 -2.94 16.25 10.26 44.36 8.87 57.31 4.73 -0.23 7.67 1.24 2.29 -1.38 -0.61 3.76 4.32 1.07 2.17 2.28 1.39 1.00 3.36 3.53 6.95 12.02 7.08 3.52 11.51 15.16 4.36 21.72 -2.48 -0.56 49.50 -17.20 -4.48 7.61 11.72 57.46 20.02 59.23 22.00 0.35 3.97 1.72 3.23 -2.15 -0.42 5.33 0.96 -4.86 1.12 3.23 0.48 0.01 3.80 5.76 2.48 8.05 7.54 5.87 10.02 11.45 -21.06 -11.66 22.91 14.47 11.08 -13.76 12.72 15.91 20.78 7.21 15.49 25.18 2.71 -0.79 5.22 1.00 4.57 -2.27 2.84 4.20 4.09 -4.75 1.52 1.93 1.46 0.78 3.65 9.10 5.32 10.06 5.58 6.20 14.65 8.54 -7.18 -1.97 10.87 14.56 16.58 -10.42 18.56 13.18 23.82 -12.05 53.96 42.12 -63.76 -0.37 6.29 2.60 1.22 -4.72 4.31 4.07 2.35 -0.67 1.85 2.54 -1.20 1.79 0.56 5.59 8.03 7.80 3.47 10.88 9.31 11.87 -0.16 -6.16 8.44 10.64 1.67 1.37 10.90 13.20 4.61 36.89 21.37 32.60 -64.46 -0.90 0.76 6.37 1.40 1.19 -0.09 2.41 5.22 3.15 -3.15 1.29 3.22 0.37 1.91 1.06 0.62 11.30 10.02 7.07 2.65 15.77 8.73 3.34 -2.79 1.91 4.27 0.83 1.27 -1.54 3.52 5.54 3.40 -2.60 4.89 3.67 -0.62 2.41 1.96 3.75 8.62 9.69 6.33 7.46 17.64 4.80 -4.79 8.29 20.17 35.20 -27.02 -5.89 11.24 28.05 45.20 11.55 55.14 46.97 -3.07 1.03 6.00 -0.23 2.94 -0.83 1.60 6.22 3.85 -2.09 3.26 2.40 -0.38 2.57 2.48 4.24 7.68 6.86 5.98 13.74 24.49 1.08 -12.16 13.76 19.73 61.43 -19.06 -32.41 8.95 25.01 65.51 2.64 46.46 64.22 -2.35 1.04 4.49 0.80 1.69 -1.87 4.40 6.19 1.76 -4.63 5.77 3.58 -0.71 1.78 2.02 3.94 12.07 9.14 4.80 2.28 13.74 6.37 9.25 6.77 15.67 27.05 -33.77 3.36 9.78 28.91 29.17 -20.46 67.79 45.05 -2.95 3.67 2.32 1.92 -0.83 -1.93 4.56 4.21 4.60 -1.07 5.63 5.04 -0.78 2.88 1.37 3.06 6.11 13.07 8.21 6.37 14.70 6.96 -11.47 4.34 25.10 17.11 -28.24 11.39 15.00 30.22 40.91 52.46 51.17 31.64 -3.96 4.52 1.33 2.06 0.37 0.01 5.38 4.15 2.54 -0.48 -0.19 -0.22 0.68 2.77 1.58 3.49 4.25 11.94 4.81 8.35 4.88 -0.13 -9.06 1.93 16.98 50.03 -8.21 -8.28 -1.56 16.68 44.53 -17.68 52.51 7.98 Annual 2.00 2.07 2.56 3.00 3.17 3.05 3.16 3.77 4.20 3.83 4.48 4.82 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.54 5.62 5.63 6.28 7.95 7.91 5.70 5.25 8.02 10.80 7.86 6.84 6.82 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -1.1 15.5 13.4 5.4 16.0 -0.5 18.2 15.2 8.5 0.9 14.8 10.4 4.2 12.2 13.4 10.7 12.7 This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user, beginning with 1966. 100 IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 2.00 2.08 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.25 4.00 4.50 3.83 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 6.00 5.50 6.40 8.50 7.83 6.00 5.50 9.86 12.00 7.88 7.00 7.13 9.41 12.90 12.23 o/1^ n o 20 . U« 13.50 13.0 8.8 4.7 12.5 10.3 5.3 10.4 10.9 12.4 12.9 10.5 4.2 10.5 10.7 5.0 7.9 10.1 4. 7 * 6.8 12.8 11.1 112. NET CHANGE IN BUSINESS LOANS2 (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... III Q <g) 111. CHANGE IN CREDIT OUTSTANDING—BUSINESS AND CONSUMER BORROWING 2 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970. 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... II Q 6.3 9.0 10.0 4.7 10.5 13.9 15.0 10.5 3.5 10.1 15.2 14.6 13.4 5.9 7.1 1.4 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD This series contains revisions 32!o5 23.90 -6.88 -11.02 7.82 16.66 31.73 48.07 0.43 50.47 -2.09 5.82 1.29 1.65 0.29 -3.59 4.73 3.92 1.36 0.17 2.42 -0.22 1.04 3.24 2.40 5.12 9.69 10.89 1.89 10.88 11.61 3.97 10.92 1.30 13.17 43.57 -13.01 -5.23 7.43 12.89 48.78 3.74 56.35 11.57 -0.27 5.16 1.77 3.01 -3.05 2.24 4.53 2.47 -3.43 1.50 2.57 0.25 0.86 2.67 6.82 5.28 8.64 5.43 7.65 11.33 10.62 -9.47 -6.60 14.07 13.22 9.78 -7.60 14.06 14.10 16.40 10.68 30.27 33.30 -41.84 -1.51 3.41 3.43 1.72 -0.08 -0.74 3.80 4.28 1.12 -1.02 2.79 1.73 0.41 2.56 3.06 3.69 9.56 9.01 5.74 8.08 13.91 2.01 0.72 19.65 28.11 -13.63 -2.02 10.15 18.50 34.10 23.41 36.30 16.79 (JULY 1983) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. My a June July Sept. Aug. 570 . EMPLOYMENT IN DEFENSE PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES (THOUSANDS) Oct. Nov. Dec. Q II Q III Q 1 IV Q Annual 1 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1950... 1951... 1952... 1954... 1955... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1, 218 1,249 1, 250 1,235 1,303 1,369 1,307 1,228 1,357 1,588 1, 211 1,254 1,246 1,240 1,316 1,366 1,294 1,224 1,382 1,614 1,210 1,255 1,244 1,244 1,326 1,354 1,285 1,230 1,406 1,630 1,212 1,259 1, 240 1,248 1,330 1,350 1,278 1,237 1,430 1,645 1,210 1,267 1,233 1,255 1,340 1,347 1,266 1,247 1,457 1,650 1,222 1,271 1,201 1,257 1,350 1,345 1,258 1,224 1,280 1,213 1,259 1,361 1,337 1,246 1,229 1,277 1,228 1,255 1,369 1,332 1,235 1,233 1,274 1,224 1,262 1,369 1,328 1,236 1,239 1,266 1,218 1,274 1,370 1,328 1,232 1,246 1,259 1,230 1,283 1,371 1,317 1,231 1,478 1,662 1,502 1,668 1,525 1,675 1,537 1,686 1,554 1,699 1,573 1,709 1,691 1,546 1,262 1,109 1,154 1,179 1,185 1,096 1,069 1,120 1,242 1,346 1,391 1,386 1,672 1,521 1,238 1,115 1,155 1,179 1,153 1,092 1,074 1,125 1,262 1,352 1,388 1,380 1,688 1,503 1,213 1,117 1,157 1,182 1,156 1,093 1,069 1,138 1,278 1,358 1,390 1,377 1,686 1,472 1,190 1,123 1,160 1,185 1,138 1,087 1,085 1,143 1,282 1,360 1,393 1,376 1,682 1,441 1,179 1,125 1,165 1,187 1,152 1,084 1,088 1,162 1,287 1,364 1,393 1,372 1,658 1,421 1, 167 1,124 1,169 1,189 1,139 1,071 1,098 1,173 1, 296 1,365 1,395 1,371 1,659 1,400 1,150 1,124 1,171 1,193 1,129 1,059 1,109 1,184 1, 305 1,367 1,394 1,372 1,643 1,373 1,147 1,127 1,175 1,152 1,123 1,069 1,103 1,193 1,306 1,373 1,397 1,364 1,627 1,353 1,141 1,136 1,171 1,188 1,114 1,069 1,103 1,195 1,317 1,377 1,397 1,366 1,613 1,321 1,132 1,134 1,172 1,197 1,103 1,065 1,066 1,207 1,328 1,382 1,392 1,363 1,580 1,299 1,123 1,144 1,176 1,193 1,089 1,063 1,068 1,219 1,340 1,386 1,385 1,363 1, 331 1,579 1,718 1,703 1,565 1,281 1,114 1,152 1,176 1,180 1,089 1,068 1,093 1,236 1,346 1,388 1,390 1,359 1,249 1,256 1,232 1,292 1,371 1,318 1,228 L,213 L,253 L,247 L,240 L,315 L,363 L,295 L,227 L,382 L,611 1*684 1,523 1,238 1,114 1,155 1,180 1,165 1,094 1,071 1,128 1,261 1,352 1,390 1,381 580. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT NET OUTLAYS, MILITARY ^UNCTIONS AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE2 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965 1966... 1967... 1968. 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980. 1981... 1982... 1983... 1,015 1,630 3,460 3,861 3,600 3,172 3,077 3,508 3,363 3,590 3,586 3,672 4,068 4,253 4,054 3,992 4,634 6,028 998 1,783 3,412 4,022 3,643 3,046 3,059 3,580 3,475 3,552 3,537 3,759 4,096 4,177 4,258 3,899 4,618 6,021 950 1,975 3,613 4,107 3,369 3,149 3,004 3,601 3,435 3,588 3,513 3,800 4,179 3,322 4,001 3,961 4,900 6,091 6,471 6,495 6,201 6,280 6,256 6,827 7,150 7,175 7,476 8,493 9,404 10,900 12,639 14,152 6,714 6,485 6,162 6,205 6,377 6,625 7,503 6,908 8,017 8,271 9,466 10,652 12,932 14,689 6,608 6,194 6,082 6,341 6, 366 6,467 7,332 7,477 7,961 8, 375 9,500 11,358 12,619 15,075 960 2,154 3,747 3,989 3, 270 3,151 3,166 3, 562 3,375 3,624 3,540 3,781 4,187 4,226 4,237 4,036 4,884 6,460 6,724 6,490 6,323 5,813 6,722 6,194 6,762 7,095 7,672 8,069 9,056 9,400 11,188 15,'670 954 2,317 3,804 4,079 3,220 3,118 3,121 3,621 3,429 3,610 3,490 3,770 4,302 4,048 4,590 4,236 4,753 5,830 6,959 6, 714 6,416 5,982 6,623 5,896 6,721 7,532 7,101 8,404 8,217 9,836 11,061 13,'433 15,379 768 2,523 3,591 3,867 3,758 3,253 3,917 3,455 3,607 3,631 3,176 3,711 4,256 4,057 4,674 4,035 5,214 5,061 6,769 6,571 5,655 6,540 7,130 6,597 7,001 6,719 7,027 8,023 9,072 9,361 11 537 13*264 15,334 1, 078 1,049 3,133 4,196 3,621 3,041 3,049 2,950 3,642 3,636 3,692 3,734 3,720 4,176 4,356 3,566 4,069 5, 521 7,279 6,022 6,715 7,302 5,771 6,107 5,868 6,755 7,742 7,426 8,040 8,394 10,494 11 193 16*312 1,076 1,055 2,911 3,328 3,868 3,117 3,097 3,254 3,633 3,487 3,649 3,665 3,713 4,136 4,203 3,768 4,255 5,315 6,404 6,343 6,838 6,519 5,712 5,766 6,598 6,957 7,962 7,229 8,119 9,638 10,339 11 425 13*809 15,050 32.5 90.0 57.5 75.0 17.5 22.5 92.5 35.0 35.0 27.5 92.5 45.0 92.5 25.0 82.5 0.0 60.0 57.5 72.5 15.0 52.5 35.0 75.0 50.0 42.5 27.5 27.5 92.5 15.0 2.5 37.5 52.5 75.0 5.0 52.5 62.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 75.0 82.5 30.0 77.5 17.5 62.5 12.5 57.5 60.0 42.5 90.0 52.5 82.5 5.0 90.0 17.5 17.5 22.5 72.5 92.5 42.5 10.0 27.5 97.5 77.5 50.0 30.0 15.0 95.0 27.5 65.0 72.5 37.5 85.0 27.5 82.5 25.0 22.5 62.5 72.5 32.5 57.5 77.5 55.0 45.0 75.0 40.0 47.5 15.0 87.5 32.5 72.5 57.5 50.0 37.5 30.0 35.0 35.0 92.5 62.5 12.5 47.5 12.5 12.5 80.0 77.5 25.0 45.0 30.0 42.5 70.0 47.5 40.0 75.0 37.5 80.0 77.5 20.0 77.5 17.5 40.0 57.5 17.5 27.5 20.0 45.0 90.0 55.0 10.0 70.0 25.0 80.0 80.0 0.0 45.0 60.0 47.5 57.5 62.5 22.5 80.0 27.5 67.5 92.5 5.0 10.0 65.0 70.0 80.0 45.0 25.0 85.0 35.0 85.0 65.0 30.0 90.0 52.5 35.0 75.0 12.5 27.5 90.0 50.0 95.0 45.0 10.0 87.5 22.5 77.5 65.0 52.5 87.5 37.5 50.0 17.5 77.5 37.5 30.0 45.0 92.5 32.5 22.5 97.5 35.0 67.5 40.0 30.0 40.0 55.0 60.0 40.0 60.0 52.5 80.0 32.5 40.0 80.0 22.5 82.5 70.0 60.0 27.5 22.5 80.0 70.0 82.5 25.0 22.5 37.5 65.0 25.0 75.0 45.0 82.5 42.5 42.5 60.0 42.5 62.5 62.5 55.0 20.0 72.5 35.0 32.5 82.5 55.0 30.0 57.5 30.0 75.0 70.0 17.5 57.5 55.0 30.0 32.5 45.0 45.0 77.5 22.5 87.5 35.0 55.0 62.5 22.5 42.5 80.0 32.5 25.0 70.0 40.0 35.0 70.0 42.5 62.5 62.5 55.0 52.5 20.0 27.5 62.5 32.5 50.0 87.5 17.5 55.0 37.5 42.5 90.0 57.5 37.5 3,194 3,236 9,027 11,753 11,470 9,220 9,593 9,492 10,687 10,809 10,948 11,081 11,241 12,461 12,752 11,283 12,585 16,435 20,117 3,033 4,282 9,520 11,550 11,199 9,428 9,202 10,122 9,924 11,100 10,878 11,025 11,892 12,620 12,442 11,906 13,511 16,663 18,796 19*775 18,394 18,335 20,475 18,687 20,484 21,346 21,800 24,496 26,345 28,597 20*026 20,097 17,442 17,375 18,993 21,296 22,955 22,185 24,205 26,624 30,826 20*064 18,571 18,426 18,772 19,148 21,822 22,161 22,881 25,386 27,195 31,474 38,190 43,916 39,530 46,383 41,712 48,243 44,123 49,838 37.5 72.5 57.5 51.7 48.3 41.7 85.8 30.0 45.0 35.8 75.8 30.0 69.2 54.2 60.0 45.0 62.5 60.0 41.7 40.0 52.5 28.3 56.7 60.0 61.7 35.8 22.5 51.7 49.2 57.5 50.0 31.7 45.8 37.5 40.8 76.7 45.8 51.7 30.0 58.3 57.5 35.0 34.2 65.8 59.2 46.7 74.2 45.8 57.5 50.8 44.2 48.3 47.5 55.8 40.0 38.3 57.5 60.8 38.3 46.7 66.7 47.5 69.2 53.3 49.2 31.7 53.3 64.2 1,008 1,458 3,167 3,843 3,721 3,108 3,010 3,399 3,416 3,661 3,630 3,645 4,001 4,290 4,091 4,030 1,014 1,533 3,224 3,965 3,631 3,160 3,123 3,359 3,335 3,681 3,617 3,752 4,054 4,122 4,163 3,958 2,963 5,388 10,485 11,990 10,612 9,367 9,140 10,689 10,273 10,730 10,636 11,231 12,343 11,752 12,313 5,521 6,399 6,495 6,747 6,136 6,139 6,237 6,490 6,973 7,285 7,892 8,215 9,026 10,139 5,515 6,375 6,805 6,764 6,094 6,070 6,303 6,507 7,398 7,358 7,330 8,687 8,762 10,448 5,627 6,022 6,842 6,553 6,341 6,217 6,232 6,151 7,451 7,518 7,659 8,484 9,407 10,887 14,152 18,140 19,165 19,793 19,174 18,445 18,826 18,999 19,919 21,985 21,560 23,454 25,139 28,370 14,014 16,881 14,277 15,972 14,548 17,087 15,298 16,779 62.5 42.5 82.5 65.0 32.5 45.0 35.0 70.0 35.0 47.5 72.5 7.5 17.5 30.0 77.5 87.5 72.5 22.5 37.5 45.0 70.0 60.0 77.5 20.0 32.5 15.0 90.0 57.5 37.5 50.0 62.5 82.5 32.5 62.5 57.5 62.5 20.0 65.0 82.5 72.5 72.5 57.5 5.0 37.5 52.5 90.0 85.0 5.0 57.5 62.5 70.0 50.0 42.5 47.5 27.5 75.0 87.5 57.5 25.0 27.5 50.0 75.0 67.5 37.5 37.5 60.0 65.0 57.5 27.5 42.5 62.5 27.5 27.5 92.5 60.0 15.0 30.0 90.0 42.5 12.5 70.0 62.5 22.5 65.0 77.5 32.5 70.0 17.5 45.0 47.5 77.5 70.0 70.0 7.5 72.5 57.5 37.5 70.0 60.0 85.0 17.5 65.0 This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user. 3 This series contains revisions beginning with 1978. 1, 715 1,675 ,445 ,179 ,124 ,165 L,187 L,143 L,081 ,090 1,159 1,288 1,363 1,394 1,373 1,245 1,260 1,227 1,283 1,371 1,321 1,230 1,315 1,569 1,709 1,698 1,586 1,300 1,123 1,143 1,175 1,190 1,094 1,065 1,076 1,221 1,338 1,385 1,389 1,362 2,682 6,994 11,142 11,935 10,248 9,522 10,204 10,638 10,411 10,865 10,206 11,262 12,745 12,331 13,501 12,307 14,851 17,351 1,011 1,291 3,129 3,742 3,847 3,160 3,069 3,364 3,173 3,758 3,631 3,628 3,837 4,208 4,188 3,918 82.5 30.0 75.0 87.5 7.5 17.5 72.5 67.5 57.5 77.5 20.0 17.5 42.5 82.5 77.5 17.5 27.5 47.5 52.5 82.5 62.5 10.0 17.5 47.5 85.0 22.5 72.5 27.5 62.5 55.0 70.0 87.5 15.0 42.5 1*455 1,652 1,229 1,277 1,222 1,259 1,366 1,332 1,239 1,277 1,521 1,676 1,717 1,643 1,375 1,146 1,129 1,172 1,178 1,122 1,066 1,105 1,191 1,309 1,372 1,396 1,367 1,225 1,264 1,230 1, 259 1,348 1,341 1,258 1,266 1,482 1,662 1,712 1,647 1,411 1,171 1,128 1,167 1,184 1,131 1,076 1,085 1,175 1,299 1,368 1,392 1,371 TOTAL FOR PERIOD 1,040 1,132 2,983 4,229 3,981 3,062 3,447 3,288 3,412 3,686 3,607 3,682 3,808 4,149 4,193 3,949 4,261 5,599 6,434 6,663 6,473 6,276 5,959 5,502 6,527 7,584 7,251 7,530 8,046 8,592 9,993 961. DIFFUSION INDEX OF AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING—20 INDUSTRIES 3 (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1,215 1,266 1,225 1,253 1, 340 1,347 1,267 13,163 30,929 44,930 46,594 39,508 37,684 38,958 41,938 42,593 43,421 42,948 45,626 50,169 49,277 49,003 50,255 62,101 74,404 78,787 79,658 76,236 72,648 75,448 75,827 83,521 88,447 88,426 97,541 105,303 119,267 137 716 163*555 188,380 AVEIIAGE FOR PERIOD 65.8 63.3 40.8 65.8 26.7 45.8 53.3 55.0 48.3 80.0 31.7 28.3 57.5 55.0 58.3 50.0 41.7 43.3 62.5 57.5 49.2 37.5 33.3 46.7 58.3 34.2 78.3 38.3 45.0 50.0 55.8 69.2 35.0 41.7 49.2 49.2 55.0 52.5 47.5 70.0 55.8 47.5 23.3 58.3 55.8 36.7 57.5 32.5 52.5 71.7 73.3 35.0 50.0 36.7 47.5 60.8 80.8 49.2 42.5 16.7 70.8 63.3 47.5 52.5 53.3 75.8 38.3 61.7 48.3 65.4 49.8 55.4 38.1 54.0 63.1 41.9 37.7 60.0 55.6 35.4 64.6 46.9 57.1 54.4 55.4 46.7 50.4 47.5 47.3 41.2 57.1 54.2 50.2 33.3 59.6 50.2 52.7 53.3 52.1 52.1 43.1 51.2 (JULY 1983) 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. | May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q III Q IV Q Annual 1 961. DIFFUSION INDEX OF AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING--20 INDUSTRIES (PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 1949... 1950.. 1951.. 1952.. 1953.. 1954.. 1955.. 1956.. 1957.. 1958.. 1959.. I960.. 1961.. 1962.. 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 1966.. 1967.. 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976.. 1977.. 1978.. 1979.. 1980.. 1981.. 1982.. 1983.. 5.0 87.5 40.0 50.0 72.5 2.5 100.0 27.5 20.0 10.0 90.0 22.5 42.5 85.0 57.5 72.5 87.5 85.0 10.0 65.0 45.0 5.0 65.0 85.0 57.5 20.0 0.0 82.5 82.5 72.5 12.5 15.0 95.0 5.0 15.0 92.5 42.5 40.0 25.0 52.5 100.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 95.0 30.0 87.5 82.5 35.0 65.0 77.5 85.0 12.5 70.0 22.5 10.0 87.5 90.0 37.5 10.0 15.0 65.0 90.0 72.5 12.5 0.0 77.5 32.5 12.5 100.0 15.0 45.0 15.0 35.0 85.0 0.0 17.5 42.5 90.0 27.5 75.0 67.5 95.0 72.5 85.0 55.0 12.5 65.0 22.5 17.5 80.0 90.0 45.0 10.0 22.5 77.5 75.0 62.5 12.5 0.0 60.0 22.5 15.0 100.0 25.0 55.0 7.5 40.0 85.0 5.0 22.5 67.5 95.0 22.5 95.0 30.0 70.0 90.0 77.5 52.5 25.0 40.0 40.0 12.5 77.5 92.5 35.0 2.5 60.0 62.5 82.5 55.0 10.0 7.5 42.5 22.5 47.5 95.0 20.0 77.5 5.0 42.5 85.0 12.5 12.5 92.5 72.5 10.0 90.0 70.0 82.5 50.0 27.5 42.5 35.0 77.5 42.5 15.0 45.0 80.0 77.5 2.5 67.5 25.0 82.5 70.0 32.5 5.0 15.0 25.0 45.0 90.0 20.0 72.5 15.0 57.5 90.0 15.0 5.0 90.0 42.5 10.0 97.5 50.0 80.0 87.5 52.5 32.5 27.5 87.5 25.0 10.0 65.0 77.5 67.5 15.0 65.0 15.0 90.0 100.0 20.0 22.5 10.0 85.0 50.0 95.0 27.5 75.0 7.5 72.5 90.0 12.5 47.5 95.0 20.0 80.0 90.0 85.0 30.0 95.0 80.0 80.0 35.0 65.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 80.0 80.0 27.5 92.5 85.0 15.0 92.5 42.5 52.5 10.0 97.5 12.5 10.0 92.5 17.5 62.5 85.0 97.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 100.0 42.5 10.0 95.0 47.5 67.5 72.5 62.5 10.0 72.5 32.5 62.5 15.0 75.0 75.0 42.5 95.0 45.0 92.5 35.0 35.0 67.5 27.5 50.0 82.5 90.0 15.0 32.5 85.0 22.5 42.5 77.5 27.5 20.0 35.0 100.0 45.0 10.0 17.5 77.5 90.0 7.5 87.5 25.0 60.0 95.0 70.0 15.0 65.0 55.0 20.0 15.0 77.5 50.0 27.5 0.0 5.0 90.0 32.5 45.0 87.5 42.5 37.5 15.0 32.5 95.0 42.5 72.5 57.5 30.0 80.0 20.0 60.0 7.5 72.5 22.5 7.5 32.5 77.5 70.0 27.5 0.0 100.0 57.5 20.0 55.0 37.5 92.5 5.0 7.5 80.0 62.5 85.0 67.5 32.5 90.0 5.0 95.0 30.0 57.5 10.0 97.5 20.0 15.0 77.5 40.0 55.0 92.5 95.0 12.5 62.5 40.0 15.0 52.5 92.5 67.5 32.5 5.0 95.0 57.5 57.5 55.0 15.0 87.5 0.0 82.5 'ERIOD AVERAGE FOR 1 87.5 75.0 25.0 87.5 2.5 90.0 55.0 30.0 7.5 95.0 17.5 25.0 95.0 22.5 80.0 57.5 85.0 10.0 27.5 45.0 5.0 45.0 95.0 72.5 7.5 2.5 72.5 50.0 100.0 10.0 15.0 100.0 5.0 100.0 10.8 93.3 32.5 45.0 37.5 30.0 95.0 14.2 17.5 22.5 91.7 26.7 68.3 78.3 62.5 70.0 83.3 75.0 11.7 66.7 30.0 10.8 77.5 88.3 46.7 13.3 12.5 75.082.5 69.2 12.5 5.0 77.5 20.0 963. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS—172-186 INDUSTRIES2 (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 35.8 95.0 21.7 68.3 62.5 91.7 25.8 83.3 84.2 74.2 30.8 80.8 9.2 3.3 2.5 46.7 86.7 10.8 13.3 83.3 70.0 14.2 94.2 50.0 77.5 75.8 52.5 42.5 29.2 68.3 35.8 12.5 62.5 83.3 60.0 81.7 85.0 18.3 92.5 42.5 46.7 6.7 64.2 34.2 85.0 75.0 20.8 11.7 22.5 44.2 1.7 9.2 95.8 40.8 17.5 83.3 33.3 59.2 83.3 74.2 13.3 56.7 57.5 35.0 24.2 76.7 50.8 30.0 13.3 95.0 40.0 42.5 54.2 50.0 69.2 13.3 57.5 96.7 16.7 16.7 88.3 26.7 65.8 78.3 92.5 10.0 54.2 35.8 9.2 43.3 88.3 70.0 22.5 48.3 88.5 27.7 69.4 13.1 62.7 77.3 22.5 10.4 74.6 54.8 18.8 83.5 47.1 66.2 76.9 75.6 35.2 37.9 57.1 27.5 22.7 76.2 73.1 39.8 2.5 9.0 89.2 55.0 59.2 40.0 22.5 93.3 65.2 51.0 67.3 59.6 26.5 44.8 29.4 50.8 4.2 81.7 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1952... 1955... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 83.0 67.5 40.8 56.9 57.5 57.2 70.4 73.1 63.8 45.3 64.5 50.9 41.6 71.5 67.7 60.8 20.4 73.7 69.1 65.9 64.2 53.2 57.8 28.5 11.0 64.4 70.9 36.2 72.5 46.4 70.1 70.4 79.3 42.2 72.7 69.5 44.8 37.5 74.2 78.0 58.3 23.9 70.4 64.2 63.7 61.6 52.7 52.4 45.4 17.3 77.3 46.3 55.1 60.8 65.9 61.7 76.3 81.4 50.3 59.6 66.0 39.0 41.0 67.2 67.2 47.6 28.2 67.5 73.7 70.4 65.6 46.2 52.2 36.0 19.2 77.6 52.1 55.1 71.6 65.9 65.9 71.6 74.9 49.1 65.1 62.2 30.8 57.6 62.1 60.5 51.1 41.1 70.2 72.3 72.0 51.6 32.0 65.6 39.0 35.8 79.8 43.9 69.5 62.9 64.4 69.2 65.3 71.6 47.4 58.7 59.3 25.6 65.7 62.1 50.3 50.5 51.9 59.7 70.4 64.2 61.8 31.2 60.2 47.6 50.3 69.6 37.4 70.1 57.2 53.0 62.3 66.8 77.8 57.8 69.2 70.1 34.6 38.4 65.1 57.3 48.9 44.6 53.0 65.1 69.9 62.4 30.9 58.9 32.8 54.4 65.0 43.3 62.6 53.3 61.4 72.8 77.8 65.9 51.5 64.2 62.2 51.2 57.3 46.5 53.0 50.3 57.8 58.3 64.8 60.8 54.3 34.9 62.6 38.4 72.3 55.5 39.3 69.5 63.2 61.7 62.3 64.1 66.5 63.7 66.3 58.7 31.4 49.1 60.8 54.3 42.7 69.6 54.0 61.0 64.5 53.5 62.1 49.5 37.1 84.0 72.1 34.0 53.9 53.6 61.7 80.8 79.0 42.5 50.9 58.7 42.2 48.0 77.0 62.1 51.1 34.4 66.9 64.0 66.7 63.7 48.9 55.4 42.2 34.1 68.6 48.2 35.0 69.5 57.2 60.5 56.0 74.6 67.1 53.5 69.5 55.8 28.5 46.8 64.8 64.5 38.4 65.6 48.7 63.2 67.2 61.8 64.5 33.3 29.3 74.2 58.3 29.1 70.4 46.1 47.6 65.6 79.9 64.7 70.9 74.4 54.4 28.2 63.1 72.0 75.5 26.1 59.1 61.8 68.8 71.8 50.3 62.1 29.3 32.0 71.1 73.6 21.2 68.6 50.0 58.4 68.9 80.5 65.0 66.3 67.2 59.3 41.9 62.5 72.3 69.4 22.0 68.5 59.7 71.8 70.7 51.1 59.7 30.9 42.2 ... 74.9 61.6 44.0 63.4 56.6 63.0 72.4 77.9 52.1 59.2 66.7 44.9 40.0 71.0 71.0 55.6 24.2 70.5 69.0 66.7 63.8 50.7 54.1 36.6 3 963. DIFFUSION INDEX DF NUMBEF OF EMPLOYEES ON PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS—172-186 INDUSTRIES (PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS) 1958..1959.. I960.. 1961.. 1962.. 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 1966.. 1967.. 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976.. 1977.. 1978.. 1979.. 1980.. 1981.. 1982.. 1983.. 92.1 70.2 24.2 77.5 58.4 66.5 80.8 88.3 61.1 73.5 76.7 41.0 38.4 82.0 85.8 66.7 12.1 83.1 83.3 80.6 72.3 41.1 68.5 20.2 89.9 66.9 28.2 77.2 63.8 71.9 78.4 85.9 53.6 70.9 71.2 34.9 43.6 83.4 82.0 59.9 14.2 83.9 85.2 81.2 71.0 34.1 65.3 23.7 89.3 54.6 55.8 75.4 64.4 74.3 81.1 85.9 52.1 75.0 73.5 28.2 44.2 86.3 74.5 53.8 20.2 77.4 83.6 82.0 68.8 30.4 63.7 25.3 15.4 83.4 46.6 59.0 71.3 66.8 78.1 80.5 81.7 48.8 77.9 77.3 30.5 49.4 77.7 68.8 51.9 31.2 74.7 79.8 76.6 63.7 24.2 69.4 29.8 23.9 81.3 38.3 73.7 68.0 74.3 74.9 82.3 79.0 52.3 73.5 77.0 20.3 50.6 72.3 63.2 44.9 48.9 70.4 79.0 78.5 59.4 26.3 64.2 26.1 49.4 77.3 36.5 71.6 67.4 71.3 80.5 85.9 74.3 51.7 75.3 70.6 22.7 61.6 71.8 57.5 41.1 57.0 71.8 77.7 76.6 53.5 27.2 58.6 26.1 66.4 66.0 26.7 78.1 61.1 68.6 78.7 86.8 77.2 59.6 78.5 67.7 24.1 55.2 73.7 61.6 37.1 67.2 62.9 73.9 71.5 58.1 34.4 45.7 23.4 76.4 60.4 24.5 76.9 50.9 61.7 82.6 87.4 74.9 66.0 78.5 59.3 24.1 56.1 76.9 70.2 32.0 69.6 66.1 74.7 75.5 49.2 44.1 34.4 19.1 80.8 63.5 21.5 75.7 49.7 65.9 82.6 89.2 71.3 67.7 77.6 57.3 28.8 62.8 76.1 71.2 23.9 75.3 65.1 76.3 76.6 49.7 57.8 29.6 21.2 87.4 66.6 19.9 70.4 52.4 64.7 79.3 87.4 68.0 64.2 77.0 54.7 27.6 70.3 79.3 71.0 20.2 78.8 68.8 78.2 78.2 50.8 73.1 24.2 26.1 90.3 72.4 20.2 73.1 45.5 65.6 82.0 89.2 65.0 66.9 76.5 53.5 30.5 77.6 82.8 73.4 16.9 81.7 72.0 80.1 73.1 53.8 68.0 25.0 26.6 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1977. 2This series contains revisions beginning with 1978. 3 This series contains revisions beginning with 1979. 102 86.8 63.5 20.9 72.5 54.2 67.7 82.0 90.7 65.0 70.9 76.7 49.7 26.7 77.6 82.5 72.3 13.4 80.6 73.9 79.8 74.2 51.9 68.8 22.0 35.8 35.1 75.7 44.5 64.9 63.9 61.1 65.8 67.9 74.8 51.4 64.3 63.9 30.3 53.9 63.1 56.0 50.2 45.9 61.0 69.3 68.7 58.6 31.4 61.6 39.8 70.2 64.2 38.9 62.0 56.7 61.6 72.0 73.6 58.3 55.4 63.1 54.4 43.5 61.1 56.5 52.8 42.5 64.8 58.8 64.2 63.0 52.2 50.8 51.4 36.5 71.3 60.0 28.4 69.5 51.1 55.5 63.5 78.3 65.6 63.6 70.4 56.5 32.9 57.5 69.7 69.8 28.8 64.4 56.7 67.9 69.9 54.4 62.1 31.2 34.5 68.7 43.3 60.1 58.8 58.7 66.1 73.1 69.2 55.6 64.2 60.4 37.9 53.1 65.1 62.4 44.3 49.8 61.8 67.6 67.1 57.3 48.7 49.6 36.9 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 9o!4 63.9 36.1 76.7 62.2 70.9 80.1 86.7 55.6 73.1 73.8 34.7 42.1 83.9 80.8 60.1 15.5 81.5 84.0 81.3 70.7 35.2 65.8 23.1 29.6 80.7 40.5 68.1 68.9 70.8 77.8 82.9 78.3 50.9 75.6 75.0 24.5 53.9 73.9 63.2 46.0 45.7 72.3 78.8 77.2 58.9 25.9 64.1 27.3 74.5 63.3 24.2 76.9 53.9 65.4 81.3 87.8 74.5 64.4 78.2 61.4 25.7 58.0 75.6 67.7 31.0 70.7 64.7 75.0 74.5 52.3 45.4 36.6 21.2 88.2 67.5 20.3 72.0 50.7 66.0 81.1 89.1 66.0 67.3 76.7 52.6 28.3 75.2 81.5 72.2 16.8 80.4 71.6 79.4 75.2 52.2 70.0 23.7 29.5 75!5 37.2 63.3 62.6 66.1 77.8 85.0 76.4 59.6 75.9 65.7 28.3 57.3 78.7 71.0 38.5 53.1 72.5 79.3 77.0 58.5 44.1 47.6 25.3 (JULY 1983) E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States Duration in months Trough Cycle Contraction (trough from previous peak) Business cycle reference dates Expansion (trough to peak) Peak from previous Trough from previous trough Peak December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 June 1857 October 1860 April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 March 1879 May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894 18 30 22 46 18 34 March 1882 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893 December 1895 . 65 38 13 10 17 36 22 27 20 18 99 74 35 37 37 101 60 40 30 35 June 1897 December 1900 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 June 1899 September 1902 May 1907 January 1910 January 1913 18 18 23 13 24 24 21 33 19 12 36 42 44 46 43 42 39 56 32 36 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 July 1924 November 1927 August 1918 .... January 1920.... May 1923 October 1926 ... August 1929 .... 23 i4 35 M iZ 18 14 13 10 22 27 21 28 36 40 17 40 41 34 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 May 1954 May 1937 February 1945 .. November 1948. July 1953 August 1957 .... 43 13 50 80 37 15 39 64 63 88 48 April 1958 February 1961 November 1970 March 1975 July 1980 November 1982 April 1960 December 1969 . November 1973 . January 1980.... July 1981 24 lOfi. 36 58 12 47 34 H7 52 64 28 18 8 1 1 11 10 10 ii 16 6 16 40 48 30 M 36 50 52 R Average, all cycles: 1854-1982 (30 cycles). 1854-1919 (16 cycles). 1919-1945 (6 cycles)... 1945-1982 (8 cycles) .. 18 22 18 11 33 27 35 45 51 48 53 56 Average, peacetime cycles: 1854-1982 (25 cycles).. 1854-1919 (14 cycles) .. 1919-1945 (5 cycles).... 1945-1982 (6 cycles)... 19 22 20 11 27 24 26 34 46 46 46 46 93 ii 45 .56 49 32 Hi 47 74 18 2 3 3 4 49 53 55 46 47 45 44 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. 1 29 cycles. 2 15 cycles. 1 24 cycles. 4 13 cycles. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 13 0 G. Experimental Data and Analyses (Nov.) P (Nov.) T Year and quarter Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product1 (Index: 1977=100) Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector1 (Jan.) (July) (July) P T Components of BCD series 2 6 - 136.5 138.9 142.3 145.5 139.1 141.9 145.1 149.0 146.6 148.1 149.8 151.5 151.6 153.5 154.7 156.7 P I I N i n i i i i i i m n III i n MM in HI mm (Index: 1977=100) 1981 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... (Mar.) T I III I II Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product, Q (index: 1977=100) (Nov.) T in Ratio scale 160 150 140 130 120 110 170 160 1982 150 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... 1983 140 130 Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977 = 100) 120 110 I I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... 153.3 157.2 (NA) 100 (NA) 90 80 -1 70 ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio) Arithmetic scale Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2 Year and Manufacturing J Merchant I Retail trade 2.2 wholesalers month (Ratio) (Ratio) (Ratio) 2.1 1982 Jan... Feb.. Mar... Apr.. May... June. 2.15 2.09 2.09 2.11 2.05 2.04 1.43 1.40 1.38 1.44 1.38 1.41 1.45 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.37 1.44 July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec. 2.05 2.07 2.06 2.15 2.12 2.08 1.44 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.46 1.47 1.43 1.46 1.46 1.45 1.39 1.40 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1983 Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May.. June. 1.99 1.98 1.93 1.40 1.40 1.40 rl.92 pi. 87 pi.36 1.39 1.42 1.39 1.38 pi.35 (NA) (NA) (NA) rl.45 1.3 1.6 1.5 July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec. 1.4 1.3 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. x Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 14 0 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) May 1983 June 1983 Mar. to Apr. 1983 Apr. to May 1983 May to June 1983 40.1 r39.9 p40.1 0.47 -0.16 0.19 470 453 406 0.05 0.10 0.36 32.16 r34.04 p33.26 0.05 0.28 -0.14 52 52 52 0.08 0.00 0.00 rill.3 rll5.0 pll6.3 -0.16 0.46 0.19 rl3.87 rl4.39 pl3.82 0.19 0.08 -0.11 124.1 132.1 142.2 0.14 0.19 0.26 r-5.70 p-1.50 N A 0.11 0.23 2.02 1.36 0.94 0.02 -0.26 -0.20 157.71 164.10 166.39 0.24 0.25 0.10 r880.3 r884.6 p890.7 -0.11 0.16 0.26 -0.6 r-5.1 0.04 -0.24 rl52.4 rl54.3 pl55.9 1.26 1.25 1.04 88,814 r89,101 r89,416 p89,760 0.27 0.29 0.41 rl,078.0 rl,078.1 rl,088.7 pi,092.1 0.00 0.49 0.20 rl40.0 142.7 144.3 pl45.9 0.53 0.31 0.40 rl55,388 rl56,140 pl61,478 0.11 0.75 rl34.7 rl35.7 rl38.0 pl39.1 0.74 1.69 0.80 19.1 19.0 20.4 22.0 0.04 -0.51 -1.05 rl.66 rl.65 pi.60 NA -0.13 -0.66 NA r96.3 r95.1 r94.2 p93.3 -0.44 -0.33 1O.5O 10.50 10.50 10.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 105,668 rlO4,466 rlO2,593 NA -0.30 -0.48 N A rl2.93 rl2.92 pl2.88 NA -0.04 -0.15 N A rll4.2 rll3.3 rll0.9 NA -0.79 -2.12 N A Mar. 1983 LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours) 39.5 Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance1 (thousands) 479 New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 31.84 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 50 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) rll2.6 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) rl2.7O 29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100) 118.5 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 2 1972 dol., smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . r-7.76 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed2 (percent) 1.96 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 151.88 106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 883.4 111. Change in credit—business and consumer borrowing (annual rate, percent) -1.4 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3 (index: 1967=100) 150.5 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thousands) 51. Personal income less transfers in 1972 dollars (annual rate, billion dollars). 47. Industrial production, total (index: 1967=100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (million dollars) 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators3 (index: 1967=100) LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade (ratio) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingactual data as a percent of trend (percent) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars (million dollars) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent) 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) Apr. 1983 N A N A N A N A N A -0.64 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated. x This 2 This 3 series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018. 15 0 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current business cycle. To set the current movements in historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods also are shown. The selected periods are superimposed to compare the current business cycle with corresponding historical patterns and to facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of the indicators' current movements. 1. For most indicators, two cyclical comparison charts are shown. In the left panel, comparisons are based on reference peak levels and reference trough dates; in the right panel, comparisons are based on both the levels and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator. (See the charts on the following pages.) The three-part code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L=leading; C=roughly coincident; Lg=lagging; and U=unclassified. II II | Ml This number indicates the latest month (or quarter) of data plotted. (1=January) I I | IV M l | Ml M|i Series number, series title 2. The vertical line represents trough dates: reference trough dates in the left panel and specific trough dates in the right panel. The current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so that their reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates (right panel) are on this vertical line. •135 -1+5 3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left panel) and specific cycle troughs (right panel). The current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so that their reference peak levels (left paneQ and specific trough, levels (right paneO are on this horizontal line. 1130 - 0 • 125 4. For most series, deviations (percent or actual differences) from the reference peak and specific trough levels are computed and plotted. For series measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate), these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if plotted) and actual data for the current cycle are shown in the tables accompanying the charts. •120 5. For series that move counter to movements in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e., declines in data are plotted as upward movements, and increases in data are plotted as downward movements. 6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line ( • » . ) describes the current cycle. The dotted line ( • • • ) represents the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The other lines represent selected business cycles. In the left panel, each line is labeled according to the year of the reference trough; in the right panel, each line is labeled according to the date of the specific trough. 7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and trough dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957 (IIIQ 1957), Apr. 1960 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973 (IVQ 1973), Jan. 1980 (IQ 1980), July 1981 (IIIQ 1981). • 110 1 5 -12 -6 0 +6 +18 Months from troughs Troughs: Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958 (IIQ 1958), Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ 1975), July 1980 (IIIQ 1980), November 1982 (IVQ 1982). This scale measures time in months before ( - ) and after ( + ) reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates (right panel). 16 0 This scale shows deviations (percent or actual differences) from reference peak levels (left panel) and specific trough levels (right panel). This scale shows actual series units and applies only to the current business cycle (heavy solid line). G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR T 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) SERIES 4 3 PERCENT 3 2 1 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.4 10.4 10.3 i2/82 1/83 2/83 3/83 5 6 7 10.2 10.1 10.0 4/83 5/83 6/83 for current cycle 11/82 1 2 3 4 Actual data 8/82 9/82 10/82 O Deviations from specific troughs Actual -4 • 7 MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 12/82 DATA YEAR • 8 SERIES 4 3 PERCENT -5 -1.0 9.8 7/82 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0.9 -0.6 -&.3 -0.1 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 8/82 9/82 10/82 11/82 -1 10.8 12/82 0 0. T 1 2 3 4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 1/83 2/83 3/83 4/83 5 6 -0.7 -0.8 10.1 10.0 • 9 5/83 6/83 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. AND FROM ACTUAL TROUGH DATA YEAR 7/81 SERIES 47. Industrial production index Deviations from reference peaks Actual data 47 47. Industrial production index 1967=100 8/82 9/82 10/82 • 170 • 165 138.4 137.3 135.7 -12.3 134.9 11/82 1 2 3 4 -12.2 -10.7 -10.3 -9.0 135.2 137.4 138.1 140.0 12/82 1/83 2/83 3/83 5 6 7 -7.3 -6.2 -5.2 144.3 145.9 142.7 4/83 5/83 6/83 CO CM rH 1 I 1 current cycle -10.1 -10.8 -11.8 0 for Percent +25 + 20 • 165 • 160 • 160 • 155 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 11/82 DATA YEAR • 150 SERIES5 47 • 150 +10 L967=100 ] 2 .6 1 .8 0 .6 138.4 137.3 135.7 0 • 145 0. T 134.9 11/82 1 2 3 4 0 .2 1 .9 2 .4 3 .8 135.2 137.4 138.1 140.0 12/82 1/83 2/83 3/83 5 6 7 5 .8 7 .0 8 .2 142.7 144.3 145.9 4/83 5/83 6/83 3 2 1 • 140 10 • 135 - I -15 -12 -6 0 +6 • 130 + 15 • us +12 +18 Months from reference troughs 8/82 9/82 10/82 • 145 +5 • 140 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this Issue. 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued I I I"111! I11111! QRTRS. FROM REF. TROUGH 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars CURRENT QRTR. ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR SERIES 30 ANN. RATE B I L . DOL. -3 -2 -1 Deviations from specific troughs Actual data for current . cycle -+10 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars #1625 -10.2 1/82 -3.4 11/82 -1.3 111/82 0 -22.7 IV/82 -15.4 -4.5 1/83 11/83 QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH IV/82 DATA YEAR -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Deviations from reference peaks 0. T 7.3 18.2 -22.7 IV/82 -15.4 -4.5 1/83 11/83 Actual data for current cycle • 1725 QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 111/81 DATA YEAR 5 • 1575 • 1525 -2.6 -2.4 -2.6 1485.8 1/82 1489.3 11/82 1485.7 111/82 0 • 1625 -3.0 1480.7 IV/82 1 2 -2.3 -0.3 1490.1 1521.4 1/83 11/83 -3 -2 -1 DEVIQRTRS. FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. AND SPEC. FROM ACTUAL YEAR DATA TROUGH IV/82; • 1475 -3 -2 -1 SERIES 50 ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. 0.3 1485.8 1/82 0.6 1489.3 11/82 0.3 1485.7 111/82 1480.7 ..I.....I -12 -6 .....I..... ........ 0 +6 +12 0.6 2.7 IV/82 1490.1 1521.4 1/83 11/83 +18 Months from reference troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this issue. 108 50. GNP in 1972Jollars c,cfc SERIES 50 ANN. RATE B I L . DOL ) #1675 0 SERIES 30 ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. 12.5 -10.2 1/82 19.3 -3.4 11/82 21.4 -1.3 111/82 -12 0 +6 +12 Months from specific troughs +18 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued Devi- indicators Actual ations from reference peaks • •' 1 910. Composite index of 12 leading data for current cycle DEVIMONTHS FROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND YEAR TROUGH DATA 7/81 SERIES 910 -3 -2 -1 O +20 • 170 +15 #160 +10 -2.4 139.4 -1.4 1.5 3.3 5.3 140.9 145.1 147.6 150.5 152.4 154.3 155.9 136.2 137.6 138.6 Actual data for current cycle • 170 • 165 • 160 SERIES 910 1967=100 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.5 136.2 137.6 138.6 139.4 4.6 7.7 9.6 11.7 140.9 145.1 147.6 150.5 12/82 1/83 2/83 3/83 13 14 15 13.1 14.6 15.7 152.4 154.3 155.9 - 8/82 9/82 10/82 11/82 4/83 5/83 6/83 +15 #155 H50 140 -5 • 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators MONTHS DEVIFROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA 3/82 YEAR 9 10 11 12 • Deviations from specific troughs 8/82 9/82 10/82 5 6 7 8 o T 4/83 5/83 6/83 #150 +5 .|. 12/82 1/83 2/83 3/83 6.6 8.0 9.1 «|« 11/82 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Percent -4.7 -3.7 -3.0 | 130 -10 - +10 • • 140 • 155 • 150 • 145 • - 145 140 +5 -15 • 120 SERIES 920 1967=100 -3 -2 -1 -10. 2 132. 6 -10. -9. -9. -8. 132. 134. 133. 134. 6 3 6 7 4/83 5/83 6/83 5 6 7 2 0 5 7 -8. 1 -6. 5 -5. 8 135. 1 134. 5 132. 7 8/82 9/82 10/82 + 15 +5 • 155 • 145 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 4 3 2 1 1.9 1.4 0.1 0. 1 2 3 4 135 + 10 SERIES 920 1967= 1 0 0 o • 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 illiIxii11 1 1 1 1 1 1 Percent + 20 MONTHS DEVIFROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 12/82 1 1 1 1 i l l it it 1 1 1 1 0 12/82 1/83 2/83 3/83 135. 7 138. 0 139. 1 920. Composite index of 4 coincident indicators 11/82 1 2 3 4 920. Composite index of 4 coincident indicators -8. 5 -8. 9 -10. 1 0 - -J MONTHS DEVIFROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 7/81 -20 5 6 +5 135 . 1 134 . 5 132 .7 132 .6 8/82 9/82 10/82 11/82 O. T 132 .6 12/82 1.3 0.8 1.6 2.3 134 . 3 133 .6 134 .7 135 .7 1/83 2/83 3/83 4/83 4.1 4.9 138 . 0 139 . 1 5/83 6/83 +18 Months from reference troughs -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this issue. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE A Accession rate, manufacturing Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment. Dl Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade. Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade. Dl New orders, manufacturing. Dl Prices, manufacturing. Dl Prices, retail trade. Dl Prices, wholesale trade. Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade. Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade. Dl Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts Personal consumption expenditures B Balance of payments-See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Loans. Bank rates-See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bonds—See Interest rates. Borrowing-See Credit. Budget—See Government. Building—See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Business failures, current liabilities Business formation, index Business incorporations Business inventories-See Inventories. Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars . Loans outstanding, net change Business saving C Canada-See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing (BEA) Manufacturing (FRB) Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment—See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Total labor force Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees, NIPA Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coinciders, index Four coinciders, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers, index Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Marginal employment adjustments Money and financial flows. See notes at end of index. 110 Current issue Series (page n u m b e r s ) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 2 604 16 56 6 1 9 2 8/81 1/83 1 8 6 4 61 970 58 974 975 971 976 978 977 972 973 24 38 22 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 6 7 7 6 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6/82 6/82 12/82 5/83 5/83 5/83 5/83 5/83 5/83 5/83 5/83 3 4 3 4 3 1 48 48 48 48 4 9 48 48 48 616 55 56 22 92 6 5 1/83 9/82 64 50 93 94 33 33 7 2 7 2 6/83 6/83 4 5 4 5 29 13,25 76 24 61 24 970 38 14 33 12 12,23 13 23 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 7 2 6 5 6 5 6/83 12/82 6/82 6/82 5/83 2/83 5/83 3 5 2 4 3 4 3 4 44 32 3 2 101 15,35 72 35 112 32 295 46 7 3 7 3 7 2 82 7/83 7/83 7/83 11/82 83 82 84 20 20 20 97 11 965 333 24 24 37 48 914 35 34 11 29 29 442 51 90 18 441 51 37 18,51 4 3 4 3 3 7 222 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series." following this index) 12/82 12/82 12/82 25 25 25 66 66 75 86 1/83 1/83 1/83 4/83 33 33 33 60 70 70 2/83 8/82 8/82 15 37 37 89 62 89 62,89 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 20 20 20 20 74 60 66 2/83 5/83 2/83 2/83 3/82 15 15 32 101 15,35 72 35 112 32 73 73 72 7/83 7/83 7/83 43 43 345 280 49 45 87 82 11/82 10/82 56 56 920 920c 951 940 9 10 39 36 11 23 60 15 64 30,47 70,83 10/82 5 6 346 49 88 11/82 5 6 340 49 8 7 6/82 1 5 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 88 88 7/82 8/81 8/81 15 62 62 53 19 6 3 9/82 2 2 920 920c 940 10 39 11 60 2/83 5/83 2/83 1 5 930 930c 10 39 60 2/83 5/83 1 5 914 915 913 917 11 11 11 11 60 60 60 60 2/83 2/83 2/83 2/83 15 15 15 15 60' Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Profitability Twelve leaders, index Twelve leaders, rate of change Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic fixed investment Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Nonresidential, total, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Residential, total, constant dollars Housing starts Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index f£!^K> Series ipage numDefS' number Charts Tables 916 910 910c Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 1 5 1 5 11 10 39 60 60 2/83 2/83 5/83 29 13,25 67 6/83 3 5 9 69 23 24 66 67 3/82 6/83 3 2 2 8 248 87 86 249 89 28 334 8 75 47 25 25 47 25 25 48 12,21 22 83 67 67 83 67 67 86 64 65 10/82 9/82 9/82 10/82 9/82 6/83 4/83 6/83 12/82 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 3 5 60 2 6 2 4 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 4/83 4/83 4/83 2/82 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 5 320 322 58 49 49 22 84,95 84 65 3/83 3/83 12/82 5 9 5 9 3 1 525 53 90 4/83 6 4 20 12,23 66 8/82 3 2 10 116 23 34 66 73 8/82 2/82 3 2 4 6 110 32 72 11/82 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 72 7/83 7/83 7/83 66 113 95 39 Ill 33 35 32 15,35 33 13,32 32 73 72 73 72 72 71 4/83 4/83 4/83 2/82 7/83 3/82 98 331 28 48 69 85 2/83 4/83 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 5 4 2 6 0 D Debt-See Credit. Defense and space equipment, output Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services, NIPA Defense purchases, percent of GNP Deficit—See Government. Deflators—See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components New orders, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing production workers Workweek, manufacturing production workers, components Disposable personal income—See income. 557 54 91 7/82 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 7/82 4/83 7/83 12/82 12/82 4/83 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 6/83 6/83 6/83 6/83 7/83 11/82 11/82 33 72 12,21 64 2/82 5/83 4 5 2 8 6/82 1/83 2/83 5/83 7/83 7/82 3 4 3 3 1 5 4 8 1 5 2 4 5/83 5/83 2/83 2/83 6/83 1 8 4 8 1 5 1 5 2 6 5/83 12/82 5/83 6/83 4 8 5/83 5/83 5/83 5/83 6/83 7/83 4 8 4 8 4 9 4 8 3 6 1 5 39 32 970 965 951 974 963 966 38 37 36 38 36 37 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 971 960 972 967 38 37 38 37 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 37 36 76 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 6 4 2 6 5 3 4 8 3 6 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Current issue Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series." following this index) Series (page n u m b e f S > number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description C) E Earnings-See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Accession rate, manufacturing Civilian labor force, total Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in mining, manufacturing. and construction Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl Employment in defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Employment, total civilian Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims. State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Layoff rate, manufacturing Marginal employment adjustments, Cl Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Quit rate, manufacturing Unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years old Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly Unemployment rate, total Unemployment, total civilian Workweek, manufacturing production workers Workweek, manufacturing production workers. components Workweek, manufacturing production workers, Dl Equipment—See Investment, capital. Exports—See International transactions. 2 441 578 577 ,. 16 51 55 55 6 1 8 9 9 1 9 1 8/81 3/83 12/82 12/82 48c 48 39 17 *6i" 5/83 5/83 40 974 41 963 570 90 442 46 60 5 962 3 913 21 453 452 451 448 42 4 446 445 447 444 91 44 45 43 37 1 17 38 14,17 36 55 18 51 17 17 12,16 36 16 11 16 51 51 51 51 17 16 51 51 51 51 15,18 18 18 18 18,51 12,16 62 7 6 62 7 4 9 1 62 8 9 6 1 6 1 6 1 7 4 6 1 60 6 1 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 62 6 1 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 62 62 62 6 2 62,89 6 1 7/83 5/83 7/83 7/83 7/83 3/83 3/83 7/82 3/83 5/83 5/83 8/81 2/83 7/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 8/81 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 7/83 1 5 48 1 5 1 5 961 36 7 7 7 4 7/83 1 5 1 8 2 0 G Goods output in constant dollars Government budget, NIPA Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and lolal expenditures State and local receipts State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, tolal Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted price index Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP. constant dollars GNP. constant dollars differences GNP, constant dollars percent changes GNP, current dollars GNP. current dollars, differences GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP. ratio to money supply Ml Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital. H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours of production workers, manufacturing 119 34 72 20 20 1 9 1 9 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 5 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 8 20 2 0 2 0 20 20 20 1 8 2 0 2 0 1 5 2/82 94 213 917 33 40 11 7 2 80 60 6/83 10/82 2/83 311 48 84 11/82 93 33 72 4 5 4 9 1 5 6/83 49 20 63 8/82 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 9 0 90 90 90 90 8 3 9/82 9/82 9/82 9/82 9/82 9/82 11/82 6 2 62 62 6 2 6 2 62 58 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 8 1 8 1 8 3 9 1 9 1 8 1 8 1 8 3 8 1 8 1 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 3 311 68 48 30 84 7 0 11/82 9/82 58 3 9 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 7 1 6 3 84 80 8/82 8/82 8/82 8/82 8/82 8/82 5/83 8/82 11/82 10/82 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 40 2 5 4 9 4 9 6 1 6 1 7/82 3/83 1 9 1 9 50 19.40 50b 50c 39 200 40 200b 200c 107 31 49 20 310 48 217 40 46 60 17 17 Current issue Series (page "umbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) 7/83 7/83 6/83 6/83 9/82 10/82 Average weekly overtime Average workweek Average workweek, components Average workweek, Dl Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits.. Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP 21 1 961 16 12,16 36 61 61 77 74 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 67 67 67 83 Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports—See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonlarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investments in the United States Income on U.S. investments abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income, less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production—See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Durable manufactures. Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components Total, Dl Total, rate of change. Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index... Spot market index Installment credit-See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl... Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans. Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States. West Germany Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States. 310 48 345 280 49 45 87 82 Series description (*) 15 15 7/83 35 35 51 51 's i F Federal funds rate Federal Government—See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows. Cl Fixed investment—See Investment, capital. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Food—See Consumer prices. Foreign trade—See International transactions. France-See International comparisons. Free reserves Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 3 West Germany 11/82 11/82 10/82 56 56 64 30,47 70,83 10/82 5 6 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 88 73 82 11/82 4/83 10/82 56 43 37 287 225 224 47 40 40 83 80 80 10/82 10/82 10/82 37 22 22 27 2 40 10/82 340 49 6/82 31 4 62 5 61 5 28 8 29 8 20 2 5 2 23 2 4 9 5 7 5 7 4 5 47 4 5 1 9 40 8 7 9 3 9 3 82 8 3 82 6 3 6 3 7/82 8/82 8/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 9/82 9/82 1 5 6 5 6 5 5 7 5 7 5 5 22 2 2 5c 1 5 1 18 0 22 8 3 9 14,19 3 1 4 5 'tt 7 1 8 2 9/82 9/82 4/83 10/82 22 40 5 6 23 8 24 8 4 7 4 5 8 3 82 10/82 10/82 5 6 5 7 25 8 38 4 39 4 4 7 5 0 5 0 8 3 88 88 10/82 8/81 8/81 5 7 6 2 6 2 5 3 1 3 35 3 1 9 2 3 48 6 3 6 5 8 5 9/82 5/83 6/82 2 2 3 2 2 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 2 2 7 5 6 3 20 7 3 6 3 2 0 7 4 4 14,20,58 63,94 7 7 8 7 5 9 6 '37' 6 3 9 4c 7 12/82 12/82 12/82 12/82 12/82 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 7/82 12/82 2 4 97 6 2 3 "37" 2 8 7 9 7 5 6 9 6/83 6/83 3 6 3 6 5 92 6 4 5 28 8 29 8 12,16 3 6 1 8 4 5 4 7 6 1 7 4 6 2 82 8 3 5/83 5/83 3/83 10/82 10/82 1 8 1 8 1 8 5 7 5 7 6 7 16 1 19 1 18 1 17 1 19 0 14 1 15 1 32 3 3 5 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 5 3 4 3 4 48 7 3 7 3 7 2 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 2 7 3 8 6 12/82 2/82 2/82 2/82 2/82 7/83 2/82 2/82 4/83 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 6 0 9 6 9 5 9 6 9 5 9 5 84,95 9 5 4/82 4/82 4/82 4/82 4/82 3/83 4/82 6 8 6 8 6 9 6 9 68 5 9 68 9 4 5 8 73 2 5 8 9 4 76 2 5 8 9 4 77 2 5 8 9 4 78 2 58 9 4 71 2 5 8 9 4 72 2 4 14.20.58 63,94 7 5 8 9 4 75 2 1/83 1/83 1/83 1/83 1/83 1/83 12/82 1/83 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 4 6 6 73 3 76 3 77 3 78 3 72 3 30 2 75 3 49' See notes at end of index. 11 1 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue Series (P a g e numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description C) Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports, merchandise, total excluding military aid Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant dollars, NIPA .. Exports of goods and services, current dollars, NIPA Exports of goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports, merchandise, total Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services, constant dollars, NIPA.. Imports of goods and services, current dollars, NIPA .... Imports of goods and services, total Imports of petroleum and products Income on foreign investments in the United States Income on U.S. investments abroad Net exports oi goods and services, constant dollars, NIPA Net exports of goods and services, current dollars, NIPA Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars, NIPA .... Business inventories, change, current dollars, NIPA Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products, manufacturers" Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories on hand and on order, net change Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, current dollars Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change Manufacturing and trade, Dl Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing, change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl Capital investment commitments. Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change—See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidential. constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Producers" durable equipment, nonresidential, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Structures, nonresidential. constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, capital goods, nondefense. constant dollars New orders, capital goods, nondefense. current dollars Plant and equipment Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new. Dl Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Investment, foreign Income on foreign investments in the United States Income on U.S. investments abroad Italy-See International comparisons. 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 12/82 12/82 12/82 12/82 12/82 12/82 12/82 70 70 70 70 70 36 70 667 622 618 602 604 256 252 668 606 620 612 616 257 253 669 614 652 651 57 57 57 56 56 44 44 57 56 57 56 56 44 44 57 56 57 57 93 93 93 92 92 82 82 93 92 93 92 92 82 82 93 92 93 93 8/82 8/82 8/82 5/82 1/83 10/82 10/82 8/82 1/83 8/82 5/82 1/83 10/82 10/82 8/82 1/83 8/82 8/82 65 65 65 64 64 54 54 65 64 65 64 64 54 54 65 64 65 65 255 44 250 251 44 47 82 83 10/82 10/82 54 54 30 245 247 559 65 36 77 915 70 71 31 975 26,42 42 47 54 27 13,26 15,27 11 27 27 26 38 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 10/82 10/82 10/82 6/83 6/83 8/82 1/83 2/83 9/82 9/82 9/82 5/83 51 51 51 27 68 6/83 2 4 2 4 3 7 1 1 2 3 6 6 6 6 7 5 6 0 6 6 10/82 28 28 28 15 28 28 28 48 6/83 9 7 1 1 95 6 94 1 9 1/83 1/83 1/83 2/83 3/82 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 5 3 2 6/83 23 4 22 4 8 6 28 4 4 2 4 2 2 5 4 7 8 1 8 1 6 7 8 3 10/82 10/82 9/82 10/82 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 8 8 8 9 29 4 8 7 21 4 20 4 2 5 2 5 4 7 2 5 4 2 4 2 6 7 6 7 8 3 6 7 8 1 8 1 9/82 9/82 10/82 9/82 10/82 10/82 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 8/82 8/82 6 1 90 7 2 0 1 0 2 4 3 8 12,23 2 3 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6/82 6/82 8/82 8/82 3 4 3 4 3 2 3 2 62 5 61 5 5 7 5 7 9 3 9 3 8/82 8/82 6 5 6 5 Japan-See International comparisons Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector... Labor cost, price per unit of. nonfarm business Labor force—See Employment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Layoff rate, manufacturing Leading indicators, twelve Composite index Composite index, rate of change See notes at end of index. 112 6 8 3 0 7 0 9/82 3 9 6 2 6 2 6 3 2 6 3 0 1 5 3 0 2 9 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 2/83 2/83 11/82 10/82 3 9 90 3 930c 92 5 3 1 0 3 9 3 6 1 6 6 0 2/83 5/83 2/83 8/81 1 5 90 1 910c 1 0 3 9 6 0 2/83 5/83 1 5 7 4 6 1 3 9 1 5 1 8 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans-See Credit. . M Man-hours—See Employment. Marginal employment adjustments, Cl Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing, change Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices—See Price indexes. Materials, rate of capacity utilization Merchandise trade—See International transactions. Military—See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply Ml, constant dollars Money supply M l , percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars Money supply M2, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply M l Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields N National defense—See Defense. National Government—See Government. National income—See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 0 Obligations incurred, Defense Department Obligations unpaid, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays, Defense Department Output—See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Defense and space equipment, output Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Per hour, nonfarm business sector Per hour, private business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA) Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB) Ratio to capacity, materials. Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers Current issue Series (page n u m b e r s ) number Charts Tables 950 14 104 36 33 31 74 72 71 Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 2/83 5/83 4/83 1 5 4 4 4 0 913 11 6 0 2/83 1 5 78 27 6 8 6/83 2 8 38 8 12,21 26 68 64 6/83 6/83 28 26 84 20 6 4 12/82 917 11 6 0 2/83 104 31 105 31 85 31 106 13,31 102 31 107 31 108 31 33 32 118 34 117 34 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 3 7 3 4/83 4/83 4/83 4/83 4/83 5/83 4/83 3/82 2/82 2/82 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 2 4 6 4 6 27 23 24 23 8 12,21 6 6 6 6 6 4 8/82 8/82 6/83 2 6 2 6 2 6 20 12,23 6 6 8/82 3 2 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 8/82 6/83 6/83 6/83 3 2 2 6 2 6 2 6 964 971 37 38 6 6 9 0 6 4 6 4 7 7 7 5 7 6 6/83 5/83 2 6 4 8 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 47 6 7 6 7 6 7 8 3 9/82 9/82 9/82 10/82 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 517 543 721 53 53 58 9 0 90 9 4 7/82 4/83 1/83 6 6 580 54 9 1 7/83 557 49 54 20 9 1 6 3 7/82 8/82 2 5 62 62 358 370 83 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 20 16 7 0 7 0 8 8 8 8 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 1 2/83 2/83 12/82 11/82 12/82 12/82 12/82 7/83 6 1 6 1 2 5 2 5 2 5 1 5 453 452 451 51 51 51 8 9 8 9 8 9 3/83 3/83 3/83 2 0 2 0 2 0 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 6 5 8 0 80 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 0 8 0 8 3 9/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 10/82 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 292 293 614 46 46 56 8 2 8 3 9 2 11/82 11/82 1/83 5 8 5 8 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 6/82 6/82 8/82 8/82 3/83 3 4 3 4 3 2 3 2 2 0 3 9 P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes, 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Total, percent of GNP Personal income—See Income Personal saving Personal saving rate... Petroleum and producls, imports Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, Dl Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Population, civilian employment as percent of 61 24 970 38 20 12,23 10 23 90 18 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Price indexes Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflators. NIPA Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities * Capital equipment Crude materials Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Sensitive crude and intermediate materials Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices-See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl. Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business. Prices, selling Manufacturing, Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade. Dl Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices—See Price indexes. Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production—See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Output per hour, private business sector Profitability. Cl Profits Corporate profits after taxes Constant dollars Current dollars With IVA and CCAdj. constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits, total With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj. percent of national income Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing, Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability. Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Series description C) 30 2 32 2 4 9 4 9 84,95 8 4 3/83 3/83 5 9 5 9 31 1 30 1 2 6 4 8 4 8 2 9 8 4 8 4 7 0 11/82 11/82 10/82 5 8 4 9 30 3 33 3 31 3 34 3 35 3 32 3 9 8 4 8 4 8 4 8 4 8 4 8 4 8 2 8 8 5 8 6 8 5 8 6 8 5 8 6 6 9 5/82 4/83 4/83 4/83 6/82 4/83 2/83 5 9 6 0 6 0 6 0 97 6 2 3 37' 2 8 7 9 7 5 6 9 6/83 6/83 3 6 3 6 9 8 9 9 2 8 13,28 6 9 6 9 2/83 2/83 1 9 98 6 2 6 13,28 3 7 2 9 6 9 7 5 7 0 7/82 6/83 10/82 3 6 3 6 96 7 98 7 97 7 55 2 19 0 3 8 3 8 3 8 5 3 3 5 7 6 7 6 7 6 9 0 7 3 5/83 5/83 5/83 4/83 7/83 4 8 4 9 4 8 6 4 4 6 6 0 9/82 358 370 916 50 50 11 18 16 80 79 28 28 29 29 287 972 960 15 916 22 81 282 12/82 11/82 2/83 61 61 15 69 69 69 69 9/82 9/82 9/82 9/82 37 37 37 37 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 10/82 10/82 5/83 12/82 5/83 2/83 9/82 37 37 48 29 45 70 82 9/82 10/82 37 56 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Salaries—See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars. Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales. Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars. Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving, private and government. Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices—See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government—See Government. Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order.. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, change Surplus—See Government. Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields... Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (•) 10/82 213 6 9 5 7 5 6 93 7 7 7 5 9 5 4 2 4 14,22 2 2 3 8 15,27 2 2 2 2 6 7 6 5 6 5 7 6 6 8 6 5 6 5 6/83 11/82 11/82 5/83 1/83 11/82 11/82 2 8 2 8 2 8 4 8 2 8 3 1 3 1 25 9 28 9 20 9 22 9 23 9 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 8 2 8 3 8 2 8 2 8 3 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 11/82 3 7 5 8 5 8 5 8 5 8 9 8 9 9 58 8 2 8 13.28 5 4 6 9 6 9 9 1 2/83 2/83 6/83 97 6 2 3 37' 2 8 7 9 7 5 6 9 6/83 6/83 3 6 3 6 1 9 98 6 7 8 13,28 3 7 2 7 6 9 7 5 6 8 7/82 6/83 6/83 3 6 3 6 2 8 6/83 14 1 15 1 3 4 3 4 7 2 7 3 2/82 2/82 4 6 4 6 9 1 6 0 5 92 6 3 15,18 1 7 12,16 3 6 1 6 6 2 6 1 6 1 7 4 6 1 3/83 3/83 5/83 5/83 8/81 2 0 1 9 1 8 1 8 1 8 46 4 45 4 47 4 44 4 3 7 4 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 18,51 1 6 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 62,89 6 1 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 3/83 8/81 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 8 4 4 4 5 4 3 1 8 1 8 1 8 6 2 6 2 6 2 3/83 3/83 3/83 2 0 1 8 2 0 51 6 9 6 2 5 5 4 2 1 2 1 9 1 6 4 6 4 6/83 6/83 6/83 2 6 2 6 107 3 1 3 1 12,21 7 1 7 1 6 4 5/83 4/83 5/83 4 0 4 0 2 8 1 12,16 1 5 3 6 6 1 7 7 7 4 7/83 91 6 7/83 's i U 15 37 10/82 283 Quit rate, manufacturing.. Raw industrials, spot market prices Components ... Diffusion index Spot market index Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI.. Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP Residential structures—See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Historical data (issue date) 8/81 97 6 2 3 24 8 3 7 2 8 4 5 7 9 7 5 6 9 8 2 6/83 6/83 10/82 3 6 3 6 5 7 25 8 9 3 8 9 29 4 4 7 3 3 2 5 4 7 8 3 7 2 6 7 8 3 10/82 6/83 9/82 10/82 5 7 4 5 5 1 5 1 5 9 5 4 2 2 2 2 6 5 6 5 11/82 11/82 3 1 3 1 Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average. Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl Layoff rate, manufacturing Number unemployed, civilian labor force Both sexes, 16-19 years of age. Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over. Total unemployed Quit rate, manufacturing. Unemployment rates 15 weeks and over. Insured unemployment Total Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products... Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change. United Kingdom—See International comparisons. Velocity of money GNP to money supply M l , ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio Vendor performance, slower deliveries W Wages and salaries—See Compensation. West Germany—See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes. Workweek of manufacturing production workers Average workweek Components Diffusion index NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; NIPA, national income and product accounts. * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1977) on which the series description appears. 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (12,23,65) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).— American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (29,70) 35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (29,70) 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68) Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (18,51,62,89) I-A. Composite Indexes 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments (includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source 1 (1160) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26, 18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).Source 1 (28,69) 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2 (26,68) 40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M).-Source 3 (14,17,62) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (17,62) 43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(18,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (18,62) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company (12,23,66) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (16,61) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).— The Conference Board (17,61) 930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 47. Index of industrial production, total (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) 24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 48. Employee-hours (M).-Source 3 80) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series, 930) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 1-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (16,61) 4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61) 5. Average weekly initial claims for insurance, State programs (M).-U.S. Labor, Employment and Training seasonal adjustment by Bureau Analysis unemployment Department of Administration; of Economic (12,16,61) 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77) 7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (21,64) 8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (12,21,64) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by 114 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3 (29,70) 27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (23,66) 28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source 2 (25,67) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) 30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) in nonagricultural establishments (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1 (19,63) 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (19,63) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).— Source 1 (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars ( M ) . Sources 1, 2, and 3 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 2, and 3 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series 46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37) (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference Board (17,61) 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Source 1 (24,67) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70) 86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 (34,72) 1-C. Diffusion Indexes 87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components 88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (25,67) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (18,62) (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector ( Q ) . Source 3 (30,70) 91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (15,18,62) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about 600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (35,75) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).-Source 4 (33,72) 961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production workers, manufacturing-20 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74.77) 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source 4 (33,72) 66. Consumer instalment credit (EOM).-Source 4 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (EOM).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) (35,73) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source 4 (35,73) 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to real gross corporate product (Q).-Source 1 (30,70) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board (24,66) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).-Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls-172-186 industries ( M ) Source 3 (36,74) (13,28,69) 964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries- 34-35 industries ( M ) Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board (37,75) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (27,68) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (15,35,73) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production-24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value, in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials— 13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (35,75,79) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (35,73) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 74. Index of industrial production, manufactures (M).-Source 4 nondurable (20,63) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods ( M ) . Source 4 (22,65) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source 4 (24,67) 77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales (series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).Sources 1, 2, and 3 (15,27,68) 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68) 79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (28,69) 80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (28,69) 81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (29,70) 82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source 4 (20,64) 83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).Source 1 (20,64) 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).-Source 4 (20,64) 85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed) ( M ) . Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3, and 4 (31,71) 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (13,31,71) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml (Q).-Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 ( M ) . Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 4 (35,73) 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) 111. Change in credit outstanding (business and consumer borrowing) (M).—Sources 1, 4, and Federal Home Loan Bank Board (13,32,72) 112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (32,72) 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).-Source 4 (32,72) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Source 4 (34,72) 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds ( M ) . - C i t i b a n k and U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer (34,73) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks49-82 industries (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) 970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total—22 industries (Q).-Source 1 (38,76) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 11 -A. National Income and Product 30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (26, 42, 68, 81) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (40,80) 213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (40,80) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (40,80) 225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (40,80) 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (48,84) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84) 330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source 3 (48,85) 331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further processing (M).-Source 3 (48,85) 332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment ( M ) . Source 3 (48,86) 334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities ( M ) . Source 3 (48,85) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) (45,82) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (42,81) Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source 1 (46,83) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,87) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) (46,82) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 293. Personal saving rate-personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) 286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1 (47,82) 287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).—Source 3 (49,87) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).— Source 3 (50,88) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (18,51,62,89) (45,82) 441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).— Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1 (47,83) 442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey ( M ) . Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1 116 .S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1983-380-993:204 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 47. United States, index of industrial production, total (M).-Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 570. Employment in defense products industries ( M ) . Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source 3 (48,59,84,95) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic reasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services (55,91) 578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) I I D . Government Activities 588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).-Source 2 (54,91) 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) Il-E. U.S. International Transactions 501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 511. State and local government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred ( M ) . U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).— Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).— Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2 735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) (59,95) 736. France, index of consumer prices (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).-Source 1(57,93) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (59,96) (54,91) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) 669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) Il-F. International Comparisons 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d' Italia (Rome) (59,96) 548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products ( M ) . - Source 2 (53,90) 557. Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source 4 561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 652. Income on foreign investments in the United States (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USDC WASHINGTON , D.C. PERMIT No. G-56