Full text of Business Conditions Digest : July 1966
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DEVELOPMENTS
July 1966
DATA THROUGH JUNE
PUBHC LIBRAKY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Bureau of the Census
AUG 2 • 1966
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm —- Computation of
business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—New projects,
Barry A, Beckman—Specifications
for computer processing,
Betty F, Tunstall—Collection and
compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by
Geraldine Censky of the Administrative and Publication Services Division*
Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for
publication design.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged.
The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this
report.
Subscription price is $6 a year ($1.50
additional for foreign mailing). Single
issues are 60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an
additional charge. For information
about domestic or foreign air mail
delivery, write to the Superintendent
of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label,
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Sond to
U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any
U.S. Department of Commerce Field
Office.
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckier, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
July 1966
" ^\ \. '
DATA THROUGH JUNE
Series ESI No. 66-7
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis
Punch Card File of Business Cycle Series
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
iii
iv
iv
._
._
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
8
10
24
TABLE 3.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods __
38
CHART
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
2.
TABLE 4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
TABLE 5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
39
42
46
CONTINUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
.
58
62
63
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
71
72
Series Finding Guide
73
65
66
67
70
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. Revisions are shown throughout the report for
series 50 (from 1962 to date) and for series 16, 21, 22,
49, 52, 53, 57, 68, and 95 (from 1963 to date). These
changes reflect periodic revisions in national income
and product accounts made by the Office of Business
Economics, Department of Commerce.
Series 17 and 62, which are based
income and product accounts, have
period from January 1966 to date.
beginning with January 1963, will
series in a subsequent issue.
in part on the national
been revised for the
Additional revisions,
be shown for these
2. The series on new private housing units authorized by local building permits (series 29) has been
revised for the period beginning January 1965. These
changes are based on data obtained in the 1965 Annual
Survey of Building Permits and a new seasonal adjustment.
3. The Treasury Department series on corporate bond
yields (series 116) has been revised from 1959 to date
to allow for the growing spread between reoffering rates
on issues with deferred call provisions and those without. The revised index adjusts all offerings to a
•uniform nondeferred call basis. Revised data are shown
in this report beginning with July 1965. Revised data
for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent
issue. Additional information regarding this revision
can be obtained from the source agency.
4. Appendix F includes historical data for series
50. (Revised figures for the other national income and
product account series are shown in table 2.)
,The August issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on August 23.
ui
Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.
A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.
IV
D
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
\>
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
[>
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
D>
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
D
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors,
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
M
it /
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how-
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather, Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjust
ment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are nut
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for JVlCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions,
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series^ the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March;
etc,) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements ma^be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by u -f" for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak, For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansipri, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for ,all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52, Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, totei
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle, These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Solid line indicates monthly data,
(Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12"-December)
P *• j
4 . *'
-|—S. 1 -—f\. 4 ft.-
Broken Hne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid .line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data, In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVfe, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("Ill" —
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves/ money supplyf and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg ....
2 Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4 Temporary layoff all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus ......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
15 Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes6.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg
18 Profitsper do) of sales mfg
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries6.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries6'7
31. Change in book value, 7manufacturing
and trade inventories
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls,, commitments 60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial materials prices*
Unit of
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space ..
Bil. dol
... .do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59=100..
do
Number
Mil. doi
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59=100 ..
Cents
Mar.
1966
1953 to June '65 June '65
to date to date
1965
(with
(without3 (without4
sign) 5
sign)
sign)
June
1966
May
1966
P41.2
(NA)
P567
(NA)
125
0.2
4.7
3.6
7.7
18.6
0.0
+1.0
+0.4
+2.4
-1.9
5.0
5.2
3.8
4.2
2.1
2.8
+1.3
+1.1
+1.3
10.4
8.2
3.5
3.8
+1.6
+1.7
+2.2
7.2
3.6
0.8
2.5
18.7
7.9
4.7
0.8
2.5
20.3
12.3
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.2
17.1
41.5
5.2
589
1.1
93
41.5
r4.8
522
rl.2
100
41.4
P4.9
513
pl.O
74
182
179
r24.20
r4.79
185
186
24.89
4.59
r24.19
r4.8l
p24.10
P4.72
69.09
5.66
71.63
r5.91
61.96
P5-74
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
9.3
4.7
rl,264
r96.9
107.6
16,603
92.41
pi, 264
p83.0
(NA)
(NA)
111.23
36
rl,48l
r!04.6
108.4
17,022
106.93
37
r!06.8
r!05.8
1,538
rill. 9
109.2
17,305
98.73
38
38
(NA)
r!06.1
(NA)
p!06.4
Mar.
to
Apr.
1966
Apr.
to
May
1966
May
to
June
1966
-0.2 -0.5
0.0
(NA)
+2.1
-7.7
-1.7 +10.5
-11.4
-9.1 +16.7 (NA)
-7.5 +26.0 -68.9
+1.6
-3.4
0.0
+0.4
-0,5
+3*7
+4-4
-13.5
-2.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-1.2
-2.2
+0.1
0.0
-1.7
-3.7
-6.5
-0.7
-1.6
-8.3
0.0
-14.7
-7.4 -14.3
(NA)
-0.7
(NA)
-2.5
+13.6 -20.4
10.1
+0.9
-2.8
-2.7
0.0
5.6
0.6
6.0
3.6
0.6
2.1
+3.6
+0.2
+2.1
-6!9
(NA)
+0.3
(NA)
+0.3
4.3
1.0
+1.0
2.5
2.0
+0.1
2.3
1.8
+1.1
-2.8
+4.4
-0.4
-1.9
(NA)
Percent
1941-43=10...
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
88.88
do
r+12.5
r+12.1
p+16.9
(NA)
3.6
3.2
+1.0
-0.4
+4.8
(NA)
do
+0.8
r+3*8
P+3.4
(NA)
1.5
1.1
+0.4
+3.0
-0.4
(NA)
53
51
52
54
6.5
6.4
-0.2
-3.8
+2.0
+3.8
do
68
69
70
72
5.3
2.1
+1.3
+1.5
+1.4
+2.9
do
86
82
75
69
7.5
6.2
+0.6
-4.7
-8.5
-8.0
+1.65
123.5
r+1.49
121.5
p*1.26
118.4
0.48
1.3
0.25
1.1
+0.06
+0.2
-0.16
-1.6
p63,384
69,759
4.0
1.9
0.3
0.4
3-9
5.4
0.4
0.4
3.1
5.7
+0.4
+0.3
+1.3
+1.7
0.0
+0.4
+2.6
+5.3
Percent
Bil. dol
1957-59=100..
(NA)
91.60
86.78
86.06
p+12.0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thous
62,918
42. Total nonagri cultural employment
do
69,072
43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent
3.8
do
40. Unemployment rate, married males
1.9
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
do
2.3
46. Help- wanted advertising
1957-59-100
201
do
47. Industrial production 6
r!53.4
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
6
do
49 GNP in current
dollars
6
do...
57. Final sales
3,397.1
do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y. . . .
do
52, Personal income
r 569.0
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
r!52.6
do
54 Sales of retail stores
Mil dol
25,536
55- Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59=100..
104.0
Apr.
1966
Current percent change2
r62,935
69,317
3.7
1.8
r+1 . 23
118.3
r63,06o
69,155
4-0
1.8
+3.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
4.2
3.1
+2.6
+8.7
185
r!55.0
185
P155.3
3.0
1.0
3.7
0.9
+2.1
+0.7
-6.0
+0.2
P732.0
p720.0
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.5
2.1
+1.5
+2.1
+2.0
3,390.1 3,348.1 P3, 377.1
P576.A
r 573.0
r570.5
p!54.8
r!53.2
r!54.0
r24,949 r24,555 p24,841
1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.5
0.8
0.8
0.2
104.3
104.8
P105.0
2.0
-0.8
+3.1
189
rl53.7
P644.2
-5.3
-0.26 +0.03
-2.6 +0.1
+0.2
-0.2
-8.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.9
0.0
-5.6
0.0
0.0
-2.1 0.0
+0.8 +0.5
+0.6
+1.5
+1.1
1.2
+1.0
+0.7
+0.8
+0.5
-0.2
+0.3
+0.4
-2.3
-1.2
+0.4
+0.5
-1.6
+0.9
+0.6
+0.5
+1.2
0.2
+0.2
+0.3
+0.5
+0.2
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unitof
measure
Mar.
1966
Apr.
1966
• ••
r98.5
r99.7
a59.6o
r99.7
May
1966
June
1966
1953 to June '65 June '65
to date to date
1965
(with
(without (without
3
sign) ^
sign)5
sign)
Current percent change 2
Mar.
to
Apr.
1966
Apr.
to,
May
1966
May
to
June
1966
+1.2
+2.8
0.0
-0.4
(NA)
(NA)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP6
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66- Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates
on short-term business
loans*5
Ann. rate,
bit. dol
1957-59-100 ..
do
Bit. dol
do
69^6
Mil. dol
23.8
69,107
Percent
5.55
P99.3
3.2
0.6
70.3
(NA)
p71.0
(NA)
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.9
+0.5
+0.9
+1.0
(NA)
+1.0
23.8
69,638
P24.1
70,131
(NA)
(NA)
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.9
+0.7
+0.9
0.0
+0.8
+1.3
+0.7
5.82
2.0
3-9
+3.9
135.9
181.1
+45.9
4.4
3.9
4.3
10.3
9.4
16.1
+0.7
+3.5
(NA)
2.5
27.4
3.9
23.8
-0.7
+6.1 +18.1
P3.30
p-360
13.9
24.5
22.5
98
9.3
11.3
12.2
47
+2.3
+2.8
+3.2
-15
4.3
0.6
+4-3
0.0
(NA)
+4.9
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83. Federal cash receipts from public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95. Balance, Federal
income and product
account 6 ' 7
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
91
92
99.
93.
85
Defense Dept. obligations total
Mil itary contract awards in U S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*7
Change in money supply
Ann, rate,
bil. dol
do
do
153.5
rl42.8
r-10.7
r!39.4
r!55.2
r+15.8
r!53.8
r!37.8
r-16.0
Mil. do!
1,947
2,299
(NA)
1,588
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
5,879
2,357
3.38
-246
6,444
3,466
r3.30
-268
5,447
2,945
r2.87
r-352
+8.52
+13.44
-11.28 p+11.28
3.11
+7.56
+14.64
-1.08 p+11.52
2.52
do
98. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits
110 Total private borrowing 6
do ....
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Ill Corporate gross savings 6
7
112 Change business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
113 Change consumer installment debt 7 . . .
114 Treasury bill rate*
Percent ....
do
115 Treasury bond yields *
do
116 Corporate bond yields*
do
117 Municipal bond yields*
do
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
Mil. dol
do
87 General imports
do
88 Merchandise trade balance 6 7
*.*
89. U.S. balance of payments: '
do
a Liquidity balance basis
do
b Official settlements basis ...
81. Consumer prices.
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97 Backlog of capital appro mfg.^
1957-59-100..
do
Bil. dol
do
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
10.32
5.67
+4.2
1.39
0.87
6.7
1.6
1.4
2.5
4.31
0.87
2.1
1.2
1.9
2.3
+0.69
(NA)
6.32
6.00
6.45
2,594.4 2,331.2 2,364.4 2,485.7(NA)
2,072.7 2,138.2 2,070.2
(NA)
+521.7 +193.0 +294-2
0.1
3-8
3.0
58.4
1.4
3.9
5.3
131-6
341
492
386
770
-263
-161
0.2'
6.6
1.4
6.6
0.2
3.8
1.8
6.0
+0.2
+1.2
+1.8
+6.0
(NA)
(NA)
112.1
158
66.76
P 20.32
112.6
161
r68.25
112.8
156
r69.48.
(NA)
(NA)
P70.74
(NA)
(NA)
-15-5
(NA)
-15.0
-13.0 +15.0
-8
-84
+7.08 -15.72 +12.60
+10.93 p+19.69
(NA)
+5.92
4.64
4.54
4.57
4.63
r5.55
5.67
3.77
3.65
+6.60
+6.37
4.61
4.55
r5.38
3.56
(NA)
-0.09
+2.4
+1.6
+8.87
+7.79
4.63
4.63
r5.33
3.72
-22
(NA)
-30.9
+4.92 -2^.72 1-22.56
9.9
1.6
.. *
+9.6
+47.1
-2.4
-11.6
+10.3
-11.2 +31.4
-31.8 +61.9
-0.18
11.5
4.3
• •.
-9.2
+8.9
+26.5
-0.11
+1.5
+0.9
+1.8
+1.3
(NA)
(NA)
-2.27
-1.42
-0.4
-1.7
+0.9
-4-3
+4.33
-0.45
+0.7
+0.4
+3.2
+2.5
(NA)
(NA)
+1.4
+1.0
-10.1
+1.4
-3.2
+3.2
+1.3
-9.7 -328.7 +101.2
+8.76
(NA)
-2.2
+1.3
+2.2
+3.3
+2.1
+5.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+0.4
+1.9
+2.2
+0.2
-3.1
+1.8
(NA)
(NA)
+1.8
(NA)
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as'rises (see series 3,4, 5, 14,15, 40r 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated i.n the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications.
^This average is based on month-tomonth
(or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in pjus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
^Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.
CHART
BASIC DATA
JULY
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Sensitive employment and unemployment
1. Avg, workweek, prod, wkrs,, mfg. (hours)
2. Accession rale, mfg. (per 100 employees)
i
30.
Nonagri. placements, oil indus. (thous.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 10(| employeesinverted scale)
—
layoff, all indus.-(thogs.-inverted
iUu
iilumItmitnkiliilii umipjJ^ui ^
yWiiihih^
nnj1 \m Liiu^^ ^, ilw i ^ ! iiliw
•^Ml^^^WJe^^^S^^^M^
10
1966
bed
bed
CHART
JULY
BASIC DATA
1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
„— _ ! _ = ,
_=_
_
-
_
L
6. NewTorders, dur. go<Jds Indus, (bil. dol.)
il
i
124. Nev^/ orders, macli, ^and equipT Indus. (bU dol.)
f
-H
| 9. Consrr. contracts, com. and fndus. (mil. sq.T?( of
^
!
L
" ftoor^area. MCD moying avgt-6 term)
H, '""~1"73S^^^ f'T]n
l6.
Contracts and orders, plant land equip, (bil. Idol.)
11. New capital appropriations, rnfg., Q (bil. dol,)
vote nonfarm housing starts (ann. rate, mill
ts, private housing un
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
38. |! Index of net business formation (1957-59=100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
100
120 ;
140 |1
160-i
Y\
L
L
,mlu
.iilniciyu'Liuilu
**&*,:
12
11 In I,
.;
Ulilil
Sfl--?''-^^
15. large bus. failuns (no. per wk.inverted 'scale. WCD moving avg.^6 term
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
i
ir
4
i "~4~
=
4rl6T Gai!por<iie profits alter~tax4srQ (ann. rate,f bit. del1.)
L__-L_-~...,-=U-.
_
_1
I-i
- -4 J
—^18.-Prfits per dollor
f salesl mfg., Q-(cents)-
l9_Stock prices, 500 common-stocks
Jirtdex: 1941-43=10)
CHART
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
m-20
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
+ 10
o
ii 31.
i
Change irt book value, mfg. and
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dot.
-10
+ 20
+ 10
0
20, Change in book vqlue, mfrs/ inventories] of
I
J
||
;
materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avgJH-6 term)
\
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod. mt|s., percent repoHing commitments 60 days or longer
| 25. Change in unfilled orders,] dur. goods indus. (bil.
JVfCD moving avg.f4term)
-10
+8
•i
bed
1966
BASIC
CHART
DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT— Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
42.
Total nonagri. employment (millions)
1
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale) -
40. Unemployment rate, married mates
j j
percent-inverted scalel |L_ JL _L_ 1 ..'
i
!'
,.
:.
l!
j| ^^^^ •!
i—f. . . litrtfi1
. Avg. weekly insured_memployment ratf,_State
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
B
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol
bed
bed
JULY 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Wholesale prices exc. farm proa.; and foods (incex: 195
CHART
CHART
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
estment expenditures
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
^ 70
60
SO
•£
40 1
30
Jlabor cist per unit of output, 4fg. (index: 1957-59=100)
Cost per unit of output
.1,,-
!
'
68. Labor cost per dol. ofjreal corp, GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories i(biL dol.)
65. Book value of mfrs/ inventories, finished goods (bil. doL)
L.-L- :
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
j
67. IJank rates on sliort-term bus. logons, Q (percent)
^
110
105 ^
100 -i
95 2
90 7
85
••!)
110
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Fed. cash surplus or ceficit (ann. rate, bil. do I
6—term movinq avq.)
I
i
:i
1
--—i90.- Defense Dept. ob-ltg., procurement (bil. dot.
-
\—-
MtO moving cvg.—6-+eU)
/,
i
-Ii\ -*
i ' , Y < .i \
klllilii.^l] ,v ., /' . JullllliLll[MUlljJjjJliL
iJUUiil
19
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
I;
^B.i^rhanfetrrm
ey supply and time ifeposi
jrcent. MCD moving avg.—6 t^rm)
110. Total private borrowing, Q
111. Corporate gross savings, 0
nvgrtirbusiness loansltdnrT. raTe, bit. dot.
i
instnUmenlldebt (aun, xttter
bed
bed
JULY 1966
CHART
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
-22
_JI
n!
1
d
==i
^j_
^_
!
!
~~™
iJjlllllkl .UltlMlM
Iss "to Ho
It
ul lli^cW
11)
MiMJiAA
CHART
BAS|C
DATA
JULY 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
89J U.S. bajqnce of payments, Q (bil doL),
or. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contacts, vjlue (index:_ 1957-59=100.
MCD moving avg.-5
L
I
j
Backlog of cap. Appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)
bed
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
JULY 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
41 United! Stales (index: J1957-59j=100)
IV liiH'.-Mil•:. 4111 -.11i41;.-:;Jll|| ^3|it;|
'"
•
.• ••'
• . • . * . - . ' ' ; ' • . . . • • • ; • ' ' *''•.-.,
• ' • - :• ' <••''"••,'.•; I
23
BASIC DATA
JULY 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs1
6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil.doL)
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Bil. dot.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
40.4
July
40 4
4-0 4,
4.0 6
4.0 7
4-0.5
40 6
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, '•
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September . .
October
November
December
4-0.3
40.4
40.2
40 -4
40.5
40 1
4,0.6
40 6
4.0 8
4.0.6
40.7
40.7
40.8
40.6
40.7
40.9
41.2
3 8
3.8
3.8
4.1
3 8
3 8
3 9
3 8
3 Q
3 9
3 7
/ 0
3 8
4 0
4 0
3 Q
3 8
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
s/ 3
^s?
575
533
525
5 V,
532
523
S22
529
518
S23
507
518
51 /
S33
s?/
4.0
4 0
4 3
3 9
4 1
4 5
/ 1
4 2
/ S
/ S
5 0
522
549
528
535
;
/ Q
4.V
£/ Q
05141.6
4 8
(El 5 2
r4 8
41.2
41.2
41.3
41 0
41.1
41.0
41.0
41.0
40.9
41 2
41.4
/I
41.5
41.5
41.5
41 4
p/1.2
/ Q
n/ Q
(NA)
1.8
1.9
1.8
19
18
19
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
310
301
2 1
18
17
18
17
1 Qn
108
1 35
13/
Q7
?Qn
?s^
1.9
18
18
18
16
1.7
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.6
14
1 L
14
116
125
98
122
111
121
118
91
121
92
89
109
79
I?/
110
28,8
293
288
284
281
282
276
301
S33
i no
6/8
•)
y
1 y Pl
c;y i
1
£
537
S2Q
1 7
-|
-3
19 94
3 93
20 02
21 25
3.92
19 34
19 91
19.62
19 45
3.77
3.69
3.79
2/3
248
21 27
237
21 71
22.04
20.99
21.31
22.20
21.51
22.16
22.42
22.39
23.40
oo/
224
ooy
224
O > £J
24o
rj-i
rt
T on
5o3
1-3
125
206
C7n
pHl^nn
KSQ
In
1 -i
11
i nA
s/ /
cop
en Q
2J-JJ
nSA7
Y>1
0
Q
b4
Qn
yJ
-i1UU
pipj
[nHpl'0
ru\ **}/4j
LHJ
(MA^
^1\IA;
1 O^
J-<!?
3 61
257
260
244
245
249
262
251
j
1 °,
-L . J
1.
3 //
3 27
262
218
209
OT O
212
c/r,
3 33
3 31
3 /?
26S
077
O"3T
rt ;
04
rt y
3 ?Q
3 62
231
1 . ;?
3 35
3 /?
7/
50
26
yA
OQ "?
2J
/
1 1 pi
3.25
3.21
3.22
1Q
19
19
on
284
270
1
1 ^
1 /
18/7
18 23
18 78
19.04
18.74
17 68
18 28
18 06
18 24
18 62
18 11
17 Q7
ooo
222
219
n So
Io2
!E179
-i rt^
185
1 ftA
lob
20 72
21 13
23.58
23.74
[y]24.89
r24-20
r24.19
p24.10
3 /I
3 /6
3 61
3 77
3 88
3 92
3 gA
3 80
4 02
4-08
4.07
4.09
4.35
i -\ £.
4.16
4.15
4.25
4.32
4.58
4.45
4-58
4-59
r4.79
[MJr4.8l
P4-72
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by EQ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43 r and 45), current low values are indicated
by[tD, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a"r anticipated; and "NA"r not available.
•'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published ty source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
Mav
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
(Bit. dol.)
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45. 78
44.93
43.86
50.81
43.73
45.43
51.07
51 05
i& n
53 i&
46.22
47 82
52.62
47 72
51.41
53 75
49 61
58 88
(Bil. dol.)
3.84
3.8?
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56
L I/
/ 11
I 36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4 53
4-51
4 56
4.92
4 94
1
c rt T O
pa
.12
54.04
/ £*n
4.o7
c£
-i q
55 28
55 90
49.60
63.48
60.49
60.33
64 36
60.04
67.48
69 09
(HJ71.63
61.96
(NA)
2.80
3.3C
3.72
4. 1C
4.38
53 20
A/ 9A
11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations1
/ 19
4.81
5.00
4 52
4 «99
4.84
/ Q&
470
no
2c . U<
4 81
5 iA
4.90
5.15
5.13
5 05
5 • riQ
fv
D5 7A
1,285
1,438
1,486
1,652
1,676
1,550
1,574
1,522
1,676
1,706
1,592
1,522
{H]I 753
1 706
1,496
1 593
1,475
1,489
1,422
1 495
1 480
1 575
1 -| rj
1 ,41
f
1,468
1,465
C OO
1,532
1,501
1 ,539
1,447
1 /OQ
i /, 36
1 380
1 531
1 "735
C QQ
5 *85
S]6 32
5 1%
5-44
5.49
5 66
EHlr5.91
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
1 571
1 506
ryo
i rt I
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
p6 17
(NA)
(NA)
1 585
1 3/Q
1 53ft
rl A8l
rl 264
nl 26/.
(1957-59400)
Revised3
" 111.8
108.2
112.9'
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
'- H3.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
116 8
[H; 124 6
m
7
38, Index of net
business formation
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(1957-59400)
(Number)
(Mil. dol.)
98.9
100.2
100.5
99.2
99.6
100.0
100.7
101.7
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8
14,924
146.46
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
IE52.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
103 1
102 8
16 250
16 018
119 ?9
91 69
1 OP 9
H ^
113 6
112.9
115 1
111.5
113 4
109 7
109 1
110 8
105 4
1 03 7
1 07 1 0
105.3
103 9
104.0
103 6
104 8
106 6
105 8
106 8
16 180
15,917
15 919
15,979
16 074
16,605
16 Z93
17 103
17 154
I -i o o
107.5
107.6
106.1
105.3
105.0
106.8
106.4
1OA I
17,275
17,367
17,112
16,504
16,043
16,671
16,369
1 /: Qcrf
lo,9:) 7
84.54
107.57
146.29
79.51
139.09
135.66
120.64
-I O£j OQ
108. 2
109.9
i n£, o
i no 7
i no Q
i n& Q
i n& /
in/ i
1 O9 8
-i 1 9 q
11 y n
11 n 7
i nc £
m
o
1 pic
-t rw
0
£
0
iU2 o
-I p|C
. yQ
1 *^C
1U;>
1*7
QQO
1
"3ft
i
A *?y
ID,
/44/
1 o y -i rt
1 f , 4lo
-i / QQO
ifo,9yy
1 Oft 7
1 7 A77
[~H"I 1 DQ A
(TTi 1 7 ft A ft
1 no O
i 7/^,jU9
QHC;
1
i 7 n9?
i A Am
?]a A \
UMA;
m
A
i oft y
QA
9
-i D7 A
•n#3 O
(NA)
VINA;
110 A7
97.92
136 19
125.14
90 99
118.59
97 98
111 00
126 49
i/co .yy
108 . 56
c>c £n
05 . D /
//
/{•
oo .65
128.06
m
L.rj
Qt
V4*
5V
<-Q
Oft
Vo. TS
/3
i nA Q"^
lUD.yj
no
yT
V^.41
m
oq
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by [Sj; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by [H)-. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961.
(See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
2
See
"New Features And Changes For This Issue/1 page iii.
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
16. Corporate
15. Number of
business failures profits after taxes
with liabilities 1
$100,000 and over
(Number per
week)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, °y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September ........
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May...::.:::::::
June
July
August
September
October
November
December . .
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised3
/Q
/3
51
38
39
/?
Z.3
42
38
38
/I
/I
3ft
39
32.8
33.5
34.9
qO A
.. •
38.5
3Q
LL
yo
39 1
A?
jp
/?
yn
35
40
42
33
47
47
39
45
43
35
40
48
37
36
36
37
38
38
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
(1957-59=100)
Revised8
(Cents)
22. Ratio of profits 19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
to income originating, corporate, stocks*
all industries
39.0
43 8
43.8
44.1
L6 3
[E]4.8 7
(NA)
100.1
100.5
100.8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100.9
101.0
101.5
100.8
100.8
101 6
101 9
101 3
101 9
101.7
100 8
101.2
101 6
100.8
100 6
101.8
102 6
65 06
102.8
102.6
103.3
103.0
103.3
103.9
104.9
104.4
103.6
104.9
105.3
106.0
105 6
106,0
ED106.8
105.8
106.1
p!06 4
#i
. •.
10.8
8 5
...
11.3
8 6
11.3
8 8
11.7
PI
9 .u
...
21. Change in
business inventories
after valuation adjustment, all industries
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised^
(1941-43=10)
(Percent)
Revised3
99.7
31.1
/?
40
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
6*5 Q2
65 67
68.76
70.14
70 11
69.07
70 98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
r;A
/ C
(70
QQ
rjA
CJp,
+4.7
+4.8
+6.0
+8.1
f o. 45
1P P
f f • J7
• . •
iQ e
+P*5
...
f 7 • Qy
V4
•7Q
ft
Q
...
n
9 .U
-too
...
T O O
...
• •.
& 7
...
-] Q "1
on 7p
OA py
do
pp
£>O
f\pi
Cj-2
1 ~\
Qj> 4-L
o/ op
cjc
04.
oc / y
op .44
4y
9
...
4.0 i,
+7/ .4
y
T
Oq Q^
oj.yo
AA i P
Q 8
ion
AA 75
4-Q 5
...
...
...
Q
8A A3
1
ft"7 Q ?
ftn pe>
...
...
dc .U4
ny
05
Q /
10 Q
-L^.y
Q 3
-I 0
...
* .*
Q ^
"i -a o
...
[H]Q Q
.. •
( MA \
U^A;
LHll "5
7
LUJJ-JJ
O
•. .
(w/n
U^.Hj
d/
Q-I
AA
SQ
/Q
oo
Q1
^Q
VI. J7
Q9 1 S
Ql
7^
fLTiQ-a
op
QP Aq
88
91
86
86
s&A
88
60
78
06
#n
+7 6
...
4-ft
7
• *•
4-1 n i
+8 9
(H3 p+1 2 0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (Hi; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are <(indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
2
3
High value (32) was reached in February 1962.
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page iii.
Average for July 15, 18, and 19.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4,6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+5.1
+2.3
+3.7
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
+14.6
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
(Percent
reporting)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
50
+0.96
95.5
+0.68
+0 94
+0 85
+0 33
-0 58
-0.54
-0.05
+0 38
+0 10
-0.09
0 40
95.1
94 4
54
55
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
60
58
5?
60
58
45
50
48
65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
72
66
72
70
66
62
64
62
60
66
72
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
+0.84
+0.50
+0.58
+0.38
+0.32
+1.24
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
48
46
53
51
52
54
68
67
68
69
70
[Hi 72
74
85
+1.27
+1.31
01+1.65
r+1.49
r+1 . 23
p+1.26
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55 •
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
-1.9
-0.5
42
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
+11.2
+ 5.0
+13.8
+8.7
+9-4
+6.1
+11.6
+8.1
+3-4
+8.2
+10.2
+16.2
+1.0
+0.4
+2.5
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
+0.7
2
(NA)
+13.3
r+12.5
r+12.1
[H]p+l6.9
(NA)
+0.9
+1.2
+0.8
r+3.8
P+3.4
Marrh
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
37. Purchased
20. Change in
book value of man- materials, percent
ufacturers' inven- reporting higher
inventories
tories of materials
and supplies1
+1.4
+3.1
+0.9
+1.0
+2.0
(NA)
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60'
58
60
61
57
5161
•
[Hi86
82
75
69
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0,77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
9/ 5
95 2
93 9
94 2
94.2
94 1
%
3
97 3
97 7
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
110.6
110.7
113 2
116.7
116.9
115-3
114.6
115.2
114.8
115.0
115.5
117.1
120.5
122.9
[E123.5
121.5
118.3
118.4
3
119.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that tnove counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by LTD. Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
-'-High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
2
Because of the adoption of a new sample for the wholesale trade component, data beginning with January 1966 are not comparable with data for the earlier period.
3
Average for July 14, 15, and 18.
27
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . .
October
November
December
43. Unemployment 40. Unemployment
42. Total nonrate, married
agricultural employ- rate, total
males
ment, labor force
survey
(Thous.)
63,086
5.7
56,353
56,488
56,562
56,670
56,727
56,856
57,008
57,038
57,205
63,219
63,462
63,716
63 , 579
63,791
63,974
64,089
64,306
64,245
64,347
64,399
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
57,252
57,606
57,694
57,781
57,864
58,033
58,190
58,301
58,499
58,370
58,879
59,163
64,621
65,084
65,208
65,765
65,774
65,472
65,581
65,682
65,697
65,730
66,133
66,426
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.4
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
59,295
59,581
59,314
59,846
60,032
60,290
60,501
60,621
60,756
61,472
61,884
66,719
66,718
66,895
66,919
66,947
67,434
67,979
67,815
67,879
68,010
68,641
68,955
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
62,148
62,501
62,918
r62,935
r63,060
[H;p63,384
69,286
69,079
69,072
69,317
69,155
(Mi 69, 759
4.0
3-7
3.8
55,897
56,027
56,142
(1957-59=100)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
in newspapers
unemployment rate,
1
State programs
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.6
47. Index of industrial production
(1957-59400)
4.8
e!07
119.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
e!09
el08
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
116
117
118
120
118
121
127
134
137
127.9
128.4
129.3
130.8
131.8
132.0
133.3
134.0
134.0
131.6
135.4
138.1
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
137
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186
138.6
139.2
140.7
140.9
141.6
142.7
144.2
144.5
143-5
145.1
146.4
148.7
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.1
184
191
150.2
151-9
r!53.4
r!53.7
r!55.0
fH]pl55.8
124
123
126
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
61,001
[KI3.7
4.0
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
01.8
1.9
2.1
IE 2.1
EE) 201
189
185
185
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
indi-by [ED. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" inH;
cates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and M NA", not available.
•'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
28
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
May
,'
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March • '
Apri 1
May
. 3
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
50. Gross
national product
in 1958 dollars
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised
Revised
1
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits,
(series 49 minus all SMSA's exseries 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1
• ••
546.0
• ••
584.2
...
572.7
••
...
579.4
...
5-54.7
594-7
•.•
588.8
...
562.1
*••
605.8
...
597.7
••.
"'
569.7
616.8
613-3
578.1
627.7
623.5
585.0
637.9
634.4
587.2
644.2
636.8
600.3
660.8
651.4
607.8
672.9
665.3
618.2
686.5
677.8
631.2
704.4
...
694.0
640.5
721.2
712.3
[Ejp644.2
[Hip732.0
OLp720.0
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2,345.9
2,357.2
2,472.5
2,419.2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2
Re vised1
120.0
119.9
120.6
120.7
122.2
123.0
123.5
123.5
124.6
125.3
125.7
126.8
2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597.3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
482.3
483.8
486.1
489.3
492.6
494.1
497.3
500.8
502.7
503.5
506.8
512.1
2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3,249.6
3,198.1
3,263.9
[Hi 3, 397.1
3,390.1
3,348.1
p3, 377.1
2,416.2
577.4
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
Revised
457.6
455.7
457.6
458.4
461.2
464.2
465-6
467.8
470.0
473-4
474-9
479.1
Revised
541.2
52. Personal
income
'
(Mil. dol.)
20,319
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59400)
100.5
100.5
100.5
20,226
20,374
20,292
20,178
20,517
20,634
20,581
20,489
20,774
20,727
20,952
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.1.
126.2
127.8
128.7
129.8
130.0
130.8
131.7
133.0
134.0
132.7
134.7
136.9
21,023
21,408
21,305
21,442
21,701
21,797
21,862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21,690
22,766
101.1
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
101.7
516.7
517.3
520.1
522.5
528.0
532.2
535.4
537.8
552.5
547.2
553-2
558.2
137.0
138.5
139.3
138.5
140.0
141.0
141.3
142.7
144-2
146.5
147.8
22,936
23,262
22,856
22,849
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
24,194
24,647
24,816
101.7
101.9
102.1
102.2
102.3
102.6
102.6
102.8
102.9
102.8
103.2
103.1
560.2
564.7
569.0
570.5
573.0
(EJp576.4
149.3
151.1
152.6
153.2
154.0
IEpl54.8
25,023
25,263
25,536
r 24, 949
r24,555
[Rjp24,841
103-4
103.8
104.0
104-3
104-8
IBJplOS.O
3
105.1
142.4
100.4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by JD . Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
3
See "New Features And Changes For This Issue," page iii.
Week ended July 12.
29
BASIC DATA
JULY 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
Year and month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
1963
• *•
36.95
• ••
January
February
March
April
May
June
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February.
March
April
May. .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
* •.
4U20
•••
100.0
100.0
...
42.55
99.3
99.1
99-7
99.3
99.3
...
40.00
August
September
October
November
December
• ••
,
100.6
100.2
99.7
99.5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
38.05
JU|y
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
43.50
.••
• ••
45-65
• ••
• ••
47.75
49.00
50.35
52.75
55.35
E58.00
...
a59.60
100.0
99.7
99.5
100.3
13101.2
99.5
98.9
98.7
99,1
98.7
99.4
99.3
99.0
98.1
98.9
99.5
98.6
98.6
97.8
98.7
98.9
98.5
99.7
99.7
P 99.3
68. Index. of labor 64. Book value of
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59-100)
(Bil.dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Bil.dol.).
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
Revised1
104.2
...
•. .
104.0
...
• ••
103.7
...
104.1
...
103.8
...
...
104.2
...
...
104.5'
...
105.6
.. .
104.5
...
.. .
105.3
...
...
105.3
*. .
.. •
105.4
• ••
50106.8
(NA)
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
62.4
62.9
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
.20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.2
63.2
63.4
63.7
64.0
64-3
64.6
65.4
65-8
66.3
66.6
67.2
68.0
22.4
22.4
22.5
68.6
69.0
69.6
70.3
(Hip71.0
23.5
23.6
23.8
23-8
(NA)
22.3
22.4
22.3
22.5
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
LBIp24.1
(NA)
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,655
51,207
51,631
52,194
52,648
53,202
53,689
54,259
54,865
55,333
55,907
56,375
56,911
57,410
58,004
58,475
58,836
59,454
60,069
60,666
61,308
62,053
62,709
63,304
64,028
64,684
65,370
65,990
66,689
67,323
67,920
68,458
69,107
69,638
070,131
(NA)
...
5.00
...
...
5.01
...
5.01
...
...
5.00
...
4-99
...
4.99
...
.• .
4.98
...
.••
5.00
4-97
4.99
• •*
5.00
5.27
5.55
05.82
a6l.65
"
a63.55
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by GO; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features And Changes For This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1963
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
,*
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
! *
June ............
Juiv
August
September
October
November. .
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
112. A
109.6
116.5
113.8
116.7
115.7
120.2
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
(Ann. rate,
fail, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate ,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
119.7
122.1
119.3
117.2
113.4
115.3
115.4
118.7
-5.1
-1.1
-7.4
-5-7
-2.6
-2.9
-6.5
-4-3
-6.3
-6.8
-3.9
+1.5
126.5
119.7
121.0
122. 4
118.9
116.5
122.2
121.0
117.3
118.4
112.9
126.6
115-1
119.6
116.3
121.1
108.4
113.5
114.7
112.4
113.7
115.7
115-4
115-1
-11.4
-0.1
-4-7
-1.3
-10.5
-3.0
-7.5
-8.6
-3-6
-2.7
+2.5
-11.5
122.0
122.2
117.8
125.6
129.3
133.9
119.5
128.8
136.9
124.3
146.3
126.6
110.9
117.6
+4.5
144.4
118.1
129.3
116.1
125.0
126.6
113-6
129.6
125.0
-11.1
-4.6
+10.4
+18.8
-11.2
+4.4
-10.7
-16.7
-1.6
-2.5
...
...
+0.2
...
146.9
142.5
153.5
r!39.4
r!53.8
135.9
rl24.3
rl37.1
r!42.8
r!55.2
r!37.8
181.1
121.6
107.3
108 -.5
109,1
108.1
114.1
112.8
113.7
117.3
128.2
-4.6
-3-4
-3.8
-10.3
>
r-22.6
r-5.4
r-10.7
r+15.8
r-l6.0
+45.9
-2.4
...
+1.8
+1.2
...
...
+2.1
...
-1.9
...
-6.7
...
...
-3-0
•..
-0.5
...
...
+2.3
(NA)
92. Military prime
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obliga- contract awards to
U.S. business firms
tions, procurement tions, total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,586
4,632
2,198
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079-
1,075
1,843
1,237
-1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,149
2,689
1,598
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1,005
700
1,355
1,444
1,402
1,254
. 4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
4,520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896
5,669
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,915
1,521
1,420
1,947
2,299
1,588
5,100
5,179
5,879
6,444
5,447
(NA)
2,712
2,596
2,357
3,466
2,945
(NA)
1,128
1,741
1,732
1,733
1,212
1,882
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "eM, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"New Features And Changes For This Issue,11 page iii.
31
BASIC DATA
JULY 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves* 85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
Year and month
(Bil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.09
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May..::::..:::::
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Mil. dol.)
2.89
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
+209
-0.84
+175
+3-96
+8.16
+89
+99
+1.56
+5.88
+4.44
+5.76
+4.92
+9.72
+8.76
+9.12
52,672
+9.48
+8.52
+8.04
+8.88
50,584
58,408
49,884
63,216
55,188
68,640
54,660
60,880
55,440
70,208
56,016
p72,436
p57,372
+2.40
+3.12
0.00
+167
+82
+7.80
+8.52
+3.84
+8.40
+4.56
+2.28
+4.56
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
2.37
2.442.46
3.24
2.46
2.58
2.62
2.81
3.45
3-28
2.57
2.53
+106
3.40
3.04
3.38
r3. 30
-44
-107
-246
-268
+36
-75
-105
-180
-182
-174
-134
-144
-146
-83
-2
r-352
p-360
'
+2.28
-2.28
+4.56
+6.00
+10.44
+7.92
+6.96
+9.00
-8.16
0.00
+13-44
+1.44
+11.76
+9.48
+0.72
+12.36
+12.60
+9.72
+10.80
+12.24
+12.96
+7.80
+12.36
+7.20
+7.68
-2.88
+1.56
+5.16
+8.52
+13.44
-11.28
p+11 . 28
+7.56
+14.64
-1.08
p+11. 52
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+247
112. Change in
business loans
111. Corporate
gross savings
+4.08
+3.24
+3.96
+6.36
+2.40
+2.40
+5.52
+7.08
+1.56
+313
|
(Ann. rate,
percent)
110. Total private
borrowing
+8.76
+8.76
+7.20
+7.68
+6.24
+.7.08
+9.00
+8.88
+6.48
+8.76
+11.04
+4.56
+4.08
+4.92
+375
+301
+269
r2.87
P3.30
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
43,104
42,668
51,516
43,748
51,040
45,428
53,876
45,312
47,236
49,324
64,660
49,872
+1.43
+1.42
+1.85
+2.40
+2.35
+1.74
+1.97
+2.04
+2.08
+4.66
+5.22
+5.78
+1.79
+3.48
+1.42
+3.17
+4.25
+3.89
+4.31
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+8.62
...
(NA)
+12.35
+13.14
+12.47
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10.00
+5.53
+4.00
+5.33
+0.32
+10.84
+14 . 23
+7.21
+8.87
+6.60
+10.93
p+19.69
(NA)
-
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
32
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
113. Net change in 114. Treasury bill
consumer installrate*
ment debt
Year and month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
August
September
October
November
December
(Percent)
(Percent)
2.91
3.89
2.92
2 90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3-92
3 93
3.97
3-97
4.00
4.01
3-99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14
Revised1
4.22
4.25
4.26
4-35
4.35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4-40
4.36
4.42
4.49
+5.84
+6.84
+7.27
+5.62
+6.89
+5.62
+6.43
+5.99
+7.13
+5.65
+4.33
+7.42
3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
+7 38
+7 16
4-7 7n
•+8.94
+7.87
+7.14
+8.69
+7.87
+8.23
+7.44
+8.39
+7.61
3 83
3 Q^
? qy
3.93
3-90
L I/.
+7.16
+6 46
+7.79
+6.37
+5.92
(NA)
+5 82
4-5.94
+5 72
+6.25
+5.29
+5 83
+6.91
+6.62
+5.09
+6.76
+5.45
+6.65
July
(Percent)
115. Treasury bond 116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
yields*
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86
(Percent)
3 10
3.15
1 05
86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total
(Percent)
5 52
5.48
% LI
(Mil. dol.)
2
1
1
1
987 3
122 1
Q6Q 1
915.5
896.8
3.10
3.11
3 21
3.22
3.13
3 20
3.20
3-30
3.27
5 45
5.45
5.45
5 45
5-45
5.45
5.45
1 791 i
1 841.1
1 905.3
1 985.5
1 954.2
1,955.8
2 105-4
4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49
4.49
4.47
4.47
3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3-20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3.18
3.13
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
2,039.6
2 057.8
2 075.2
2,061.0
2 047.3
2,076.5
2,118.6
2,099.8
2,261.0
2,156.4
2,206.2
2,426.1
/ . //
/ //
3 06
5 45
6/6
6/6
5.45
5-45
5.44
5.44
5.45
5.46
5.49
5.51
5.62
1 214.6
l 6Q8 8
? 76/ 8
2,379.6
2,260.2
2,230.2
2,255.5
2,332.9
2,324.1
2,341.6
2,408.2
2,355.8
5.70
2 248 6
(NA1)
2 WL 8
6.00
(NA)
6.32
6.45
2 69/..A
2 331.2
2,364.4
2,486.7
5.46
5.45
1965
January
March
Apri 1
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1966
January
February
March •.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
;. . . .
..
4 16
/ -| c
/ /Q
4.48
Q OQ
? 1 8
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4-34
4-43
4.52
4.57
4.57
4.66
4.71
4.70
4.75
4-92
3.15
3.17
3.24
3.27
3.24
3-35
3.40
3.46
3.54
4.60
4 67
4.63
4.61
4.64
4.54
4.43
4.6l
4.63
4.55
4.57
4.63
4.93
5.09
5.33
5.38
5.55
5*67
3.52
1 6L
3.72
3-56
3.65
3.77
3.81
3.83
3.84
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
1
See "New Features And Changes For This Issue," page ill.
33
BASIC DATA
JULY 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
87. General im- 88. Merchandise 89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of construction conments (•) in U.S. balanceof payments sumer prices
trade balance
ports, total
tracts, value
(series 86 minus
series 87)
a. Liquidity
b. Official
settlements
balance basis
basis
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
NovemJber .
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March.
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8
-112.6
+611.7
+484-4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499.7
+490.6
+627.6
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514.0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9"
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,663.1
1,763.6
1,806.8
2,005.9
1,903-3
2,034.6
+21.9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+592.4
+569.3
+517.3
+335.7
+504.9
+321.2
1,935.5
1,992.9
2,072.7
2,138.2
2,070.2
(NA)
+313.1
+341-9
+521.7
+193.0
+294.2
CNA)
(Mil. dol.)
-1,218
-1,114
-200
-138
...
-248
(1957-59=
100)
(Mil. dol.)
-1,081
-871
0
-92
-144
-552
...
-326
-617
-231
-1,381
-697
+226
•..
-534
-845
-618
+238
+236
-350
...
-1,158
-563
-245
**.
(NA)
...
(NA)
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(BiLdoL)
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.2846.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59-38
60.66
61.44
62.53
111.0
111.7
112.1
112.6
112.8
(NA)
152
157
158
161
156
(NA)
63.80
65.11
66.76
r68.25
r69.48
p?0.74
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing i
(Bil. dol.)
8*.88
9)38
10.05
11.02
12.08
13*23
14.54
...
14^97
15*66
17.06
18'.17
19.48
P20O2
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The <( r ft indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
l
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
34
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
1963
47, United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
(1957-59=
100)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
120
121
122
123
124
(1957-59=
100)
120
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
111
123
123
123
132
133
134
133
135
133
133
133
13A
134
132
135
138
134
135
135
136
139
140
1 39
1/2
1 /I
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
128
128
129
131
132
1 3Q
111
141
142
143
144
"i Vi
144
145
146
149
150
152
153
1/3
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
151
153
153
r!55
156
154 '
P156
155
(NA)
113
11 /
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
110
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
•
134
135
136
136
139
158
125
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
142
144
145
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
140
139
130
1 ?Q
128
128
129
128
130
129
128
130
130
131
1/5
1/5
156
137
1 55
1 /Q
13Q
154
155
154
151
151
140
131
130
131
p!30
(NA)
150
150
150
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
1/3
145
146
146
145
146
148
149 149
149
p!52
(NA)
p!56
(1957-59=
100)
127
139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
124
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
142
142
138
1 3Q
155
156
154
153
139
142
144
144
143
146
146
148
157
r!55
rl60
160
p!57
(NA)
r!44
149
150
150
pl50
(NA)
(1957-59=
100)
179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217
172
169
173
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
219
166
169
166
169
175
176
178
176
178
179
184
183
243
237
185
184
256
252
r256
P260
r!86
pl88
(NA)
224
224
226
228
233
232
232
239
241
237
242
2L2
240
234
243
241
238
243
240
243
244
(NA)
•
NOTE: Series are seasonally ad justed except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 indusfries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MLY ?966
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Current expansion
Mar.
1966
Business cycle peak
May
1966
Apr.
1966
Nov.
1948
June
1966
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
6
6
5
4
1
1
4
12
1
1
4
7
5
1
4
6
3
5
1
2
5
1
2
1
24
50
24
21
16
6
24
21
15
9
1
5
1
2
**4
"i
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
2
1
1
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
"*3
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
a
3
2
6
1
...
7
11
73
11
55
11
64
1
1
9
*3
11
82
"i
1
3
4
Apr.
1957
Apr.
1953
1
"i
"3
1
**3
11
0
3
2
3
1
3
4
2
3
11
27
11
36
11
27
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
2
1
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Jan.
1957
Nov.
1959
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
.
13
2
4
4
"2
2
5
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
"i
^o
5
1
2
2
21
5
13
2
"i
l
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
9
1
'*5
2
1
2
3
1
2
1
"4
.
21
2
"3
24
0
24
0
X
20
15
2
21
33
18
"i
2
"i
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
2
1
2
1
"i
6 months
1
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
-.
Benchmark month ,
.
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
1
1
"i
"l
*1
2
6
11
55
"i
"i
5
3
5
3
6
11
45
11
45
11
55
"4
4
3
3
2
11
36
11
18
"*5
2
"i
"4
4
11
36
4
2
1
1
3
11
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15t a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
series were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
X
4
2
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
38
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
CHART
JULY 1966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
Dl. jAvg. workweek,
prod, vykrs., mfg.-21 indus
:
i
'
i
D6. New orders, dur. goods mdus.-36 indus.
ID11. Newly approved capital appropriations
\7 indusr,fNi€B -]—-™[--*= -= '
(^—3-Qlpan, \
1-Qi span)
>tock prices, 500 common stocks-80 indus.
ial claims, State unemjfl. irisur.-47 ian
Jjyil^^
^ iJAiljy
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
1
';
<
:
i1
!
:
D41. Employees ir| nonagr. establjshmentsfSO indus.
I
(6-mV s p a n j —
1-mo, sp^n ---)
D47. Industrial production-?4 indps
bed
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
)35.
Net sales, {all mfrs.-800 cos.
(4-'Q span)1
;, dgr. goods mfrs.-40C
)48. Cajrloadings-19 mfrd. commodity g
total carloadings
Httms=of=cafs-4-Q spo
D61. New plant
(1-Q span)
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
Actual
1st Q1965-lstQ 1966
3d Q 1964-3d Q 1965
4th Q1965-lstQ 1966
D35, D36 (Apr. 1966)
048 (June 1966)
D61 (May 1966)
.iilUUoi
UUMUUlLUbvJ^!:. „.
tl^ii
UwSJO
fl<§l<^uSJi3J&
Will-'
'•
HSJsiiy)"'-'!'
...
Anticipated
3d Q 1965-3d Q i966
3d Q 1965-3d Q 1966
2d Q 1966-3d Q 1966
iij'LiLjjUUUUUUULi!yy^.,,.., aJUlUUkiliJLi m
flQI^l
pSJS)^?
flUM
• fl@l^' - : -"fKSl^'1"'
llQlSJ'u •.,•
L'aiS/S) • - "liSJSlPJ--* •
JUUULJUL UU UllJUl
»
41
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
1-month span
9-month span
9-month span
OIL Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)^
3-quarter span
1-quarter span
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, °y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
,.
May...::::::::::
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February. ,
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
76.2
50.0
61.9
14-3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83-3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64-3
66.7
73.8
4.8
63.9
43-1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
55.6
85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
44.4
58.3
61.1
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.2
81.0
59.5
59.5
33.3
54.8
71.4
69.0
78.6
95.2
90.5
85.7
47.6
83.3
71.4
21.4
45.2
p78.6
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
97.6
57.1
61.9
59.5
19.0
78.6
23.8
52.4
50.0
38.1
71.4
81.0
59.5
r52.4
p26.2
-
.
88.9
69-4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
47
...
...
59
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
53
...
...
53
*53
•. .
•. .
65
*65
...
*76
•. •
53
76
*56
*71
*53
...
44
63.9
61.1
68.1
*32
...
*59
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44-4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
81.9
86.1
76
• ••
...
71
...
65
76.4
r83.3
30.6
50.0
84.7 "
p72.2
r41.7
r51.4
P48.6
72.2
*53
...
...
59
•. *
...
P59
*76
*..
82
j£5
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
L
The data from 196l on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery. These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICB publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
,
42
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, '
June
50
*59
...
i...
July
August
September
October
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
*56
55
57
...
*6o
"57
*56
D19, Index of stock prices, 5001 common
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95-0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
55
92.2
81.8
...
59
...
64.3
70.8
*55
24-7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1
66.9
0.0
...
60
57
(NA)
74.0
48.7
14.3
63.6
3.9
23.4
84-4
75.3
76.6
76.6
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
67.5
70.1
51.9
43.5
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46,2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
61.5
69.2
34.0
44.7
66.0
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
53.8
53-8
46.2
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34-0
31.9
83-0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74-5
72.3
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
53.8
24-5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44-7
51.1
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
95.7
53.8
61.5
38.3
44.7
83.0
53.2
45.7
57.4
91.5
74.5
61.5
76.9
46.2
30.8
42.3
46.2
3
69.2
269.2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through Februaiy 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for July 14, 15, and 18.
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October.
November
December
65.0
46,7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0
6o.O
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73-3
60.0
66.7
60.6
73.3
73.3
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, **
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73-3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
75.0
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
6-month span
79-2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54-2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85v4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54-3
78.3
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60,9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
75.0
75.0
81.7
60.0
60.0
80.0
85.0
56.7
63.3
85.0
91.7
81.7
83-3
76.7
80.0
78.3
76.7
76.7
85.0
91.7
91.7
86.7
95.0
93.3
66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
•5fe.l
75.0
83.3
91.7
83.3
85.4
83.3
83-3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
100.0
63.0
69.6
30.4
54.3
87.0
43.5
80.4
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
37.0
80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
95.7
91.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60-.9
71.7
73.9
87.0
89.1
78.3
78.3
91.7
r70.0
r76.7
P80.0
95.0
r93-3
p80.0
70.8
79.2
r85.4
r64.6
r54-2
p68.8
95.8
r91.7
P79.2
71.7
69.6
60.9
r43.5
r45.7
P56.5
r82.6
P78.3
63.0
80.4
71.7
73.9
r71.7
P73-9
89.1
95.7
P91.3
1-month span
u-3
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown.
The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
44Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 7966
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year and month
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
036. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
061. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
50.0
*76
73.7
78.9
•..
+39
40.6
*77
'so
• ••
76
75.0
5?!9
68*.A
•.•
+44
65^6
*76
''82
*sZ
*S2
*80
78.9
78.9
+Z
75.0
.. •
71.9
...
'sZ
75.0
*82
"sZ
71.9
*85
68*.Z
73^7
r-60
*83
*87
'sZ
'sZ
sZ.2
68. A
+11
*82
*86
'si
'sZ
73.7
9Z-7
+Zi
*83
*87
*sZ
"sZ
52^6
89:5
H7
'sZ
*88
"sZ
*85
52*.6
89.5
+Z7
90
*88
90
"sZ
63*2
8^.2
...
+23
*88
• *•
*88
*88
• ••
*sZ
(NA)
sZ.2
+22
*88
*90
*89
*87
73!7
+28
90
89.5
*S9
8^.2
*76
*80
• ••
*7Z
...
71.9
50.0
62! 5
5o!6
8^.4
•.*
75.0
• •.
96.*9
68^8
56.2
.. •
65.6
75.0
68!8
87.5
65^6
8l*.2
84." 4
81.2
62.5
• ••
March
April
May
,'
June
July
August . 4
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Anticipated
(NA)
*91
*91
(NA)
r+18
71.9
71.9
NOTE' Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter/ Seasonally adjusted cpm&nents are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require
no seasonal adjustment. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY T966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr/
May
June p
Average weekly hours
DL AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
41.1
41.0
41.0
41.0
40.9
41.6
41.5
41.5
41.4
41.2
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
41.7
41.0
41.6
41-9
42.1
42.1
41.8
39.9
41.4
41.6
42.1
42.0
42.7
40.5
41.7.
42.4
41.8
42.1
40.7
41.3
41.8
42.1
41.7
41.9
40.5
40.9
41.9
41.8
41.6
42.3
41.1
41.7
42.4
42.0
42.6
41.9
41.1
42.0
42.7
41.9
42.5
42.3
41.3
41.6
42.1
41.9
42.4
42.7
40,3
41.9
41.9
42.1
42.1
43.0
41.1
43.0
41.6
39.8
43.0
41.0
42.9
41.4
39.6
42.9
40.6
42.3
41.3
39.7
42.7
40.8
42.2
41-3
40.0
43.0
40.5
41.8
41.5
39.8
44.0
41.6
43-4
42.5
40.3
43.9
41-4
42.9
42.5
40.3
43.7
41.4
43.4
42.1
40.0
r42.3
rU.3
r42.3
41.8
r42.2
42.4
43.8
r41.4
r42.1
r42.S
40.1
41.0
37.3
41.5
36.4
43.1
41.0
37.2
41.4
36.5
43.0
41.6
41.4
42.5
36.6
43.5
41.1
39.3
42.4
36.5
43.5
41.1
39.2
41.9
36.5
43.7
38.6
42.2
42.7
41.6
38.4
38.7
42.2
42.8
42.3
38.9
38.7
42.1
42.5
42.2
38.5
38.7
42.2
42.6
42.1
39.1
40.9
r38.5
r42.1
r36.5
r43.7
38.8
42.0
r42.6
r42.1
r39.0
41.2
38.3
41.6
36.7
43.2
38.5
41.7
41.9
41.8
37.8
41.1
37.4
41.8
36.2
42.9
38.6
41.8
42.7
41.9
37.9
40.7
37.8
41.7
36.0
43.0
38.5
42.0
42.2
41.4
38.1
41.4
36.3
42.9
38.6
41.6
42.1
41.8
37.9
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
.
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures . . .
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
41.7
38.4
41.3
•
43.6
41.2
42.0
42.1
39.9
38.8
42.1
42.5
41.7
38.5
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
• 20,992
a, 310
22,195
21,509
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals .
Iron and steel foundries ...
Other primary metals
3,286
1,632
3,454
1,816
3,493
1,851
3,119
1,465
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
2,027
2,042
2,058
1,974
Machinery, except electrical
3,108
3,189
Steam engines and turbines*
\
142 226
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
601
560
Metalworking machinery *
208
204
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*. . . .
Service industry machinery *
23,741
24,888
24,197
r24,l89
24,100
3,994
2,141
4,057
2,104
3,905
2,037
r4,263
p2,331
4,083
2,013
...
2,247
2,411
2,206
...
P 2,237
(NA)
...
**•
.. •
(NA)
3,318
283
3,315
242
3,317
223
3,529
230
3,538
335
P3,542
p258
(NA)
149
603
242
...
596
309
620
229
617
272
689
301
610
309
p706
p255
(NA)
(NA)
3,140
(HA)
...
258
230
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
preliminary.
r=revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
46
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
22,163
2,908
1,276
248
250
248
246
254
303
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
P367
(HA)
NA= Not available.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
1-month spans
1965
9-month spans
1965
Diffusion index title and components
g-
CO
§i
<
co
&>
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and-accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
„
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
38
+
«
Q
JO
J=
t-
>*
£
=
<
s
-7
I §
71 81 60 48 71
+
+
+
o +
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
0
-0
f
+
I
21 45
0
o
+
+
o
o
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
-
0
+
0
-
-
O
-
+
+
+
0
+
+
0
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-
o
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o
-
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61 61
+ +
56
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+
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_
_
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85
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69
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m
+
+
o
+
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1-^1u.i s1 <c *
(D
52 26
-
1966
-S
LL-
a
1- f
+
0
+
—S
»
g- O
-6 Z1 Q£
+
+
5
"3Z.
OJ
C
June-Mar
1966
0
+
+
+
+
0
1
0.
=3
>>
CD
C
2
&>
Q.
<L>
CO
TO
<
+
+
83
79
+
f
+
+
+.
0
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f-
0
+
+
+
+
f
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
f
86
+
83
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72
+
72
+
+
0
-
+
0
+
+
+
+
-
+
f
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
76 31
+ +
i+
0
68 92 83
+ + +
81 82
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
•
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
-
0
-
+
+
+
+
+
-H
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
0
-
-
+
..
+
+
+
+
.+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
67
+
+
Fabricated metal products:
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
.
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery * •
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
51 49
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
]•
-r
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+v
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
h
+
o
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY
7966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July 1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES2- Continued
Electrical machinery
2,801
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
\ 603
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
659
Electronic components .
...
. ...
Other electrical machinery^
5,878
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
2,874
668
3,099
3,000
690
2,995
3,332
67?
622
762
691
752
655
733
724
5,870
6,363
6,141
6,853
6,574
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
3,489 r3,6l2 P3,401
p8l2
705
r731
(NA)
725
r888
p652
(NA)
6,873
r6,56l
r6,508
123.5
121.5
118.3
(NA)
P6,668
Index: 1957-59 = 100
116.9
115.3
114.6
115.2
114.8
122.9
118.4
119.2
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (lb.)( 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.) average
Wool tops(lb.)
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
.D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
.414
.073
'38.600
1.910
.426
.076
36.055
1.894
.151
.147
.303
.206
1,64.2
.152
.146
.303
.207
1-643
.158
11.629
.272
.079
.162
11.733
.265
.079
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
25,263
5,021
5,053
5,076
5,078
5,097
5,359
5,391
r5,467
p5,428
(NA)
1,769
1,909
215
450
1,769
1,885
211
442
1,812
1,936
219
443
1,807
1,961
211
448
1,814
1,982
223
452
1,915
2,127
223
457
1,935
2,119
220
459
rl,924
r2,099
224
453
Pl,9l6
p2,105
p2l6
p468
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
271
262
268
271
278
289
277
r279
p282
(NA)
.418
.075
35.677
1.867
.150'
.145
.304
.212
1-695
.164
11.919
.260
.080
.444
.074
31.469
1.911
.466
.072
29.918
1.930
.586
.076
37.719
1.847
.632
.078
36.019
1.808
.620
.082
31.479
1.770
.586
.075
30.384
1.678
.629
.075
31.556
1.611
.633
.075
34.518
1.636
.149
.148
.303
.211
1.712
.150
.160
.302
.211
1.743
.150
.161
.294
.207
1.726
.150
.170
.292
.205
1.762
.151
.169
.391
.215
1.787
.151
.163
.291
.217
1.811
.152
.161
.291
.218
1.794
.151
.162
.292
.209
1.833
.186
.167
11.581 11.523
.250
.254
.074
.074
.232
11.535
.259
.077
.236
11.4,20
.257
.073
.207
.212
11.341 11.103
.235
.239
.072
.071
.236
11.100
.234
.072
.228
10.972
.239
.074
Millions of dollars
25,536 r 24, 949 r24,555
P24,841
NOTE: pata are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA=Not available.
preliminary.
r=revised.
Average for July 14, 15, and 18.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments"
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
48 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1965
o>
d
f
f
•§• O-6 Z
|O —|» u_
i -£s
<C
co
t
§ 1 £
1£ I
TO
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*.
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
,
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (Ib )
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.)
Zinc (Ib )
Burlao fvd )
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib )
Dirhhar /Ih 1
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+ + + + +
+
- + -
+
+ + +
- +
- +
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
1
<c
CX
3
—t
>*
03
1
&
°?
%
0
'5
<•D
?
1966
S
^
^
Q
i2 1 <t
s
4-
+
-1-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
= •§
«
£
j. ^
Q. TO
+
+•
+
-h
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
0
+
+
+
rf
+
+
+
+
4-
+
0
15
35
62
62
77
46
31 42
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ + -
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
o
-
o
-
-
+
-
+ +
- - -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ •»- -
+
+
4-
-A-
4-
69
54
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
46
+
+
s
a
<
nr
3
H
_>>
=3
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CD
00
O
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
}•
+
+
+
-h
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-t-
•f
+
CD
+
+
-h
+
+
-r
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
54
+
54
-H
+
+
+
+
+
50
<c"
j>,
3
+
+
-
June-Mar
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-I-
+
+
+
+
+
54 46 46 46
i+ + +
46
+
38
+
+
t+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
i-
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
62
+
69
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
Tollruw Hh ^
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
74 74 78 37 72 70 6l 44 46 57
Percent rising
+
+ +
+ + + +
All retail sales
+
-f
+
+
-tGrocery stores
+
+ + + +
Other food stores
+
+
+
+ + + +
Eating and drinking places
+ +
+
- + + + Department stores
+
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) . . + - + - + - + +
+
+
f
+ + +
Variety stores
+ +
+
+
+
o +
+ +
Other general merchandise stores
+ + +
+
+ + o
Men's and boys' wear stores
87 87 96 91 96 96 96 91 83 78
+ + + + +
+
+
+ + ' +
+
+
+
+
+ + +
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+ +
f
j
f
+
r
+
+
+
+
+ + +
+ + + + + +
+
+ + +
f
+
+
+
+ +
f
+
+ + + +
+
+ + +
+
+
•f
-f
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
•f
+ +
+
+ f
+ +
4• = rising; 01 = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
•"-Average for July 14, 15, and 18.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
49
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
May
July
June
Sept.
Aug.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.'
MayP
June
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores .
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
*
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers ....
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
. .
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
502
501
510
500
508
594
569
579
582
(NA)
220
682
332
776
228
212
699
334
783
228
211
722
334
782
234
208
706
353
768
234
213
716
389
765
237
240
730
405
862
252
232
765
405
895
255
223
741
379
797
237
236
740
368
755
243
(NA
(NA
(NA
(NA)
(NA)
4,295
260
1,811
755
530
4,,359
247
1,824
760
525
4,491
252
1,831
775
527
4,402
258
1,820
779
513
4,398
260
1,827
794
530
4,718
277
1,907
806
561
4,822
299
1,907
816
559
4,302
278
1,927
843
564
4,046
260
1,936
837
564
(NA
(NA
(NA
(NA)
(NA)
June* 3
}• •*
1966
1965
Aug.
Oct.
Sept.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr. r
May r
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, day, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
60,621
60,756
61,001
107
530
358
500
1,046
987
1,224
' 1,182
1,263
252
349
61,884
107
547
368
512
1,035
1,012
1,244
1,225
1,290
256
359
62,501
118
553
373
516
1,050
1,036
1,262
1,269
1,330
265
350
62,918
121
558
375
518
1,055
1,040
1,264
1,278
1,348
267
353
123
550
374
516
1,062
1,041
1,270
1,306
1,348
269
355
63,060
127
542
379
509
1,066
1,038
1,283
1,320
1,354
272
357
63,384
105
527
357
500
1,068
983
1,218
1,163
1,267
251
342
1,129
68
825
1,205
499
621
546
111
362
310
617
3,186
61,472
108
538
362
503
1,031
1,006
1,242
1,199
1,282
254
353
62,935
104
530
354
495
1,079
977
1,208
1*152
1,280
248
342
1,144
70
828
1,212
500
625
544
110
365
311
622
3,202
4,071
3,288
9,396
1,174
69
834
1,216
503
630
547
110
372
314
627
3,267
4,079
3,300
9,454
1,156
72
837
1,225
507
629
548
110
378
314
630
3,386
4,079
3,309
9,513
1,161
70
842
1,229
512
639
554
110
379
319
1,161
72
844
1,229
513
640
556
109
383
319
632
3,462
4,107
3,349
9,666
1,150
72
846
1,238
515
643
556
110
387
323
1,140
71
848
1,256
515
646
560
111
388
323
1,132
72
849
1,278
520
651
565
113
395
318
591
3,370
4,112
3,358
9,646
630
624
3,332
3,275
4,128
4,123
3,361 • 3,384
9,676
9,655
1,135
68
823
1,195
497
622
548
110
363
310
.
627
3,189
4,049
3,273
9,327
4,067
3,281
9,360
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
50
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NA=Not available.
631
3,374
4,104
3,336
9,606
preliminary.
r=revised.
129
539
379
509
1,083
1,042
1,298
1,338
1,351
273
353
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
&
«>
3
<C
054. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards bui Iding materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
+
+
4-
c:
"S
QJ
O
•z.
^
0
o<1>
>
O
TO
—
i
6
CO
ex?
O
Z
O
4•f
4-
-
444-
9
o.
+
+
4-
-
4-
444-
4
-
0
S
j_
t=
TO
5,
^
S
-o
<c
^
S
*i-
—\
i*P
U-
5
S
S?
<C
440
-
44-
4-
0
TO
44+
S
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 T
™*
4-
4"
-
4-
..
444-
\ -
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
O
0
4>
O
4-
444-
+
0
J
0
TO
—>
u_
44-
4-
444-
4-
44444-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
O)
4-
4f
4-
D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
^tortp r\ft\/
pnrl dlp^^ nrnrfiirf^
o
DO
3
^,
"S.
<&
oo
O
G
1 |
0
Z
0
"8
^r
^
j|
^
•->
u_
TO
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Leather and leather products . ••
Mining
Contract construction . . . .
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
•f
13
—»
f
4-
44-
4-
=3
44-
4-
=3
:
DO
=3
<c
+
"o.
CO
:
444-
4-
4-
4-
4-
•f
4-f
4-
4-
4-
444-
4-
4-
44-
-r
44-
44-
4-
44444-
444-4-
44-
4-
4444-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4444-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
f
93
80
444-
OJ
1966
1965
0
5. IS*
*f ^
TO
^
0.
<c
o
TJ
TO
CX3
9
TO
Q.
Q
-1
O3
U_
i
"£.
£
cL
^
63
85
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
+
0
77
80
77
85
92
92
87 95
93
95
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4+
f
•f
92
82
78
78
92
70
4-
4-
O
4-
•
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
-
4-
0
44-
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Marhinprv
TO
TO
cr
6-month spans
1966
->
c3§
-I
CD
4-
1-month spans
1965
CJ
CD
a
4-
4-
444-
co
"G
9
Dec-June
Q-
44-
44-
•H
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
44+
+
4-
4 - 4 - 4 444 - 4 - 1 -
44-
4 - 4 - 4 0
0
0
4 - 4 - 4 4 - 0 4 f
44
-
0
44
-
-h
4- ' 0
444 - 4 - 4 - 0
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 0 4 0 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 0 4 - 0
4-
-
4-
•1-r
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
-*-
4-
4-
4-
+
.-
4-
4-
f
4-
4O
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
444-
+
44-
O
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
4+
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 44-
40
o
4-
4-
44-
4•f
444•T
4-
4-
4f
444O
4-
4444+
-f
44-
44-
444-
-
-
-
4-
4-
14444-
4-
444t
4f
4*
l-
4-
4-
44-
4-
44444-
44-
44-
4-
444-
4
4-
44-
f
444-
44
4444-
0
444-
444440
+
-t-
44444-
4444-
4-
444-
44-
0
4-
4-
444-
444-
4+
44444-
f
4+
•f
44440
4-
44-
4-
44f
4it
4-
4-
4-
f
444444-
44-
O
4f
41f
4440
4-
4-
444-
444-
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 7966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Feb.
Apr.
May
JuneP
3,100
9,251
2,477
8,094
r3,101
r9,26l
2,501
8,135
r3,105
r9,283
r2,521
r8,174
3,113
9,303
2,546
8,223
155.8
Mar.
Thousands of employees
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 1 -^.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous .......
Federal government
State and local government
3,053
8,946
2,379
7,706
3,061
8,967
2,379
7,740
3,069
9,019
2,386
7,785
3,074
9,081
2,400
7,869
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation epuipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous . . . .•
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber- • • •
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
•
Minerals:
Coal
3,082
9,205
2,451
8,021
Index: 1957-59 = 100
144.5
143.5
145.1
146.4
148.7
151.9
r!53-4
r!53.7
rlSS.O
146.5
147.5
131-2
147.0
123.7
150.9
119*4
153.6
126.5
156.3
133.6
160.7
141.* 4
rl6l.4
r!42*4
rl60.7
r!46.3
162.3
145
163
162*4
160.1
151.5
152.6
162.4
162.1
149.4
155.7
165*8
166.2
155.0
158.0
166*9
168.4
157.3
159.0
169-2
172.8
160.7
162.2
174*4
179.8
163.2
169.4
174.0
r!78.8
165. 8
171.9
r!74.5
rl83.6
rl66.0
r!74.6
rl77*9
rl85.0
rl65.7
176.9
133*5
117.2
133*8
116.2
134-4
118.3
135*. 5
119.1
137*6
125.4
141 '.4
126.5
r!43.0
r!29.3
r!42.1
r!30.7
rl40.9
P125.9
180
186
167
176
135
141
(NA)
156*3
146.6
156*8
147.1
159*7
150.4
162*6
153.0
164.3
155.5
166 ,*8
155.3
168*8
156.8
169*6
156.4
172*2
157.7
174
159
134*8
141-9
107.0
135.7
143.8
108.2
137.7
145.7
109.3
139*4
147.2
110.1
140.3
148.5
113.9
140.7
148.3
110.1
140.7
r!47.3
rill. 4
rLU.5
PU9.5
pll6.2
rmi.9
PH2.3
(NA)
(NA)
141.1
133.0
143." 9
129.3
143.6
131.1
147*4
133.2
147.7
134.2
148.5
138.2
r!50.2
139.0
r!50.2
138.4
174*2
125.8
168.1
176*6
125.1
171.2
177.1
124.0
175.5
178.5
126.1
181.6
180*6
127.8
181.3
184*3
125.5
183.3
rl86*2
r!25.6
rl85.7
r!87*7
r!27.8
pi 87. 8
122.4
120.7
123.2
120.6
123.6
114.5
125.0
118.9
125.3
117.1
127.0
126.7
127*7
126.8
127.5
pllS.S
p!52*7
r!42.4
r!79.3
P191-2
P126.6
(NA)
r!25.6
pl26.4
(NA)
115.2
114-2
106.7
110.6'
116.8
114.0
115.7
113 .-8
118.5
114.5
111.2
115.0
117.7
rll6.7
85.3
rl!7.2
116.9
rl!5.8
130.2
129.1
122*4
127.4
116.5
125.5
114.2
133.2
120.6
138.2
130.8
135.6
134*5
137.1
r!40.1
r!30.9
p!29.*5
P127.5
117
115
132
(NA)
(NA)
103.3
103.2
> 103.4
103.7
104.1
104-9
105.2
105.2
105.6
105.7
101.0
97.7
101.7
101.3
101.6
97.7
' 101.7
101.4
101.8
97.9
101.6
101.1
102.5
98.0
101.5
101.3
103.1
98.3
101.8
101.7
104.3
98.5
102.1
102.2
105.7
98.4
108.2
98.6
102.2
102.1
r!09.1
98.9
102.4
101.9
107.2
98.8
102.4
102.2
Metal stone and earth minerals
Stone and earth minerals
3,082
9,128
2,395
7,933
143
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
148
(NA)
144
180
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
126
(NA)
(NA)
D58- INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables ......
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
NA^Not available.
-'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
52
p=preliminary.
102.1
102.4
^revised.
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
TABLE
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
1"
9 1 9 -?
ttO
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
,
*r^
>
•+-•
f
O
j^
1 |-l|
-Q
w-
i!_
>*,
iifliilfil
+
0
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
52
75
83
92
71
79
85
65
54
69
67
88
88
88
88
88 100
96
92
79
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
--+
+
+
+• +f
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
_
-
_
_
-
+
4 - -
r
+
+
+
+
+
H
+
+
+
+
+
+
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products . . .
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
!+
+
I-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
. . ,,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ NA
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
+
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
....
+
Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
+
Apparel products
+
Leather and products
4
Paper and printing
Paper and products
4Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
4.
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
..
4Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
+
Tobacco products .............................
Minerals:
Coal
' Crude oil and natural gas
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
<.....
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
_
52
+
4 , 4 -
4-
+
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
+
4
4
+
+
+
+
4
4- '
—
4-
-
4-
n
4-
4-
4-
-
4
-
-
4
-
-
4-
4.
+
MA
i
M A M A
4 - 4 -
M A
M A
-
4
_
4-
4-
4-
-1-
4
.
_
_
4
,
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
.
4
_
44
* *
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
n
4
-
MA
4-
4-
MA
4
MA
+
—
4
4.
4.
4-
4-
—
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
-
+
-
+
+
+
- N A N A
+
-•+
-
+
+ - 4 -
.
4
4-
TVT A
MA
_
Mfl
MA
•
4
-
4-
4
+
+
•
-
4
-
+
4
-
MA
+
4
4.
-
4
4.
-
4
,L
4_
-
4.
-J4
4-
4
4
-
4
.
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
M
-
i
4_
4.
±
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4 - M A M A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
A
-
-
-
A
+
+
H
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+ NA
-NA
74
89
89
96
91
t
+
+
+
'
j
4-
A
4-
MA
ATA
-
-
+
— NA
MA
4-
+
+
-
-
4-
+
-
r
_
+
+
-
+
4
70
74
63
80
72
52
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
O
+
-
0
-
—
+
+
OO
f
-
_
74
0
N
_
N
72
+
-
70
61
61
72
74
87
i
+
T-
+
+
+
f
-
-
0
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
O
0-O
'
4 Arising; o = unchanged;- -falling.
NA=Not available.
•'-The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions .of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
53
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 7966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May r
JuneP
Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINGi-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
General purpose machinery and equipment
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Aooarel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
116.6
101.7110.2
105.7
105.2
96.7
100.7
112.2
117.2
101.7
110.0
105.9
104.8
96.6
100.7
110.8
116.8
101.7
109.7
106.0
104.8
96.5
100.3
110.5
117.8
101.9
109.9
106.3
105.3
96.4
100.5
112.9
117.1
102.0
109-6
106.4
105.6
96.5
100.5
111.1
119.9
102.7
110.1
106.8
105.6
97.8
100.4
115.1
121.0
103-4
110.6
107.3
105.7
98.3
100.3
113.0
122.5
103.5
110.7
108.6
105-7
98.5
100.3
113.0
122.4
103.8
111.0
109.3
105.9
98.5
101.0
117.3
123.3
103.9
111.4
109.9
106.0
98.6
100.5
118.0
107.0
107.1
100.8
105.1
94.8
103.9
100.3
97.3
97.4
93-4
112.0
106.1
107.4
100.9
105.5
94.4
103.9
100.3
97.4
96.7
93.5
111.2
106.1
107.4
101.0
105.9
93.3
104.1
100.5
97.6
96.8
93.1
112.6
107.1
107.6
100.9
105.4
92.6
104.1
100.8
97.5
98.0
93.1
113.3
109.8
107.9
100.9
105.5
91.9
104.3
100.9'
97.7
97.7
93.4
114.6
111.9
108.3
101.1
105.6
91.1
104.9
101.1
97.5
97.9
94.0
118.8
112.1
109.6
101.5
105.8
90.7
105.0
101.6
97.4
97.5
94.1
119.3
111.8
109.6
102.2
106.2
90.5
105.0
102.2
97.4
98.6
95.4
121.2
111.8
109.5
102.8
106.4
89.7
105.1
102.7
97.6
98.3
95.4
122.7
110.5
109.8
103.1
106.5
89.. 7
104.8
103.0
97.7
99.6
95.9
122.9
p=prelimtnary. r=revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
54 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6- montl" spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
g - gz SQ^ —
^ >- LS ui Ss <. 5s?
t o V
eVo
r s "S
a
< C «
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
«...
Manmade fiber textile products
LI
s
+
—
OO
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
O 4 " ' l
—
- - - 4 - 4 - 4
o
—
+
4-
-
00
+
+
+
4
—
+
+
Hi-
- O 4
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
—
O
O
+
O
+
-*
4
+
O
+
- 4 +
O
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
—
+
4-
4-f
+
+
-)-
_
-j-
j1-
4-
+
O
Hh
0
-
4-
+
Hl_
.(.
_j."
L
J.
j.
—
- " 4 -
44-
-).
+
4.
"5
—^
444+
o
o
+
4-
44-
4-
4 - -
i « 1 {^
U_ E <
4-
4-
+
4+
o
4-
+
-t-
o
4 - - C3
+
O+
+
Hh
4
+
H1-
+
I
+
+
h
o
"o
9
S
+
4 - Hh
+
O
-|- 4 - C3
—
4 " 4 - o
+
&
CO
+
l>
Pulp paper and allied products
1
j .*!*O O:> O oJ mA C -io e iL o ci
o O ^ Q - S L i - S <c
June-Dec
Diffusion index title and components
.L
H
4-
i? f
<C
C/5
+
t 1
i« 1 3
S S
C*
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 -
+
4
4 - 4
4-
+
—
—
C)
+
O
+
+
4
4h
+
+
+
4-
4
4
1
+
4-
+
h
+
H
»
S
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4
l_
4.
4-
4~
+
4h
4*
+
+
j_
4-
4"
i.
f
4 - 4
a.
n
j
J.
HiHp^ ^Ifinx Ipathpr anrl Ipathpr nrnHiirfc
I
1
9- montf spans
1-month spans
1965
IS)65
1966
s- 1
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components) ^
Percent rising3. ..
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
*+ .
....
Electric companies
aj
«y
a
Q)
CO
a)
*®
Q<
c o C 5 ^ c p - p L L - S < C S
=3
§•
"G
O
Q ) E
1*
J5
<1>
81
67
+
70
57
74.
1A
4-9
i 2^
6A.
g
CO
O>
68
61
+
4.
-j.(-
+
4-
4.
^_
-f
_|.
4_
4.
+
+
0
4*
+
.)-
4 - 4 -
—
-
+
4-
+
+
x
+
+
-
+
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
4 - 4 -
—
4
4
-
4
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
4-
4-
f
—
-
4-
-
-
+
-
4-
-
S
-
4
..
4
-f
-
4
+
-
4
4
-
4
4
_
-
—
4
-
4
4 - _
_
4
-
-
4
+
-
+
-
1S t
SQ
4-
S
—s»
x
4c^
—=3t
^+ 60+ 68+ 7C)
3
=
^> s.
O5
^2
<C
co
52
47+
^
4
4 +
_
f
o
+
4-
-
+
4-
i ""
+
+
4
+
+
4
+
+
4.
+
+
4
f
4-
4-
+
—
4
+
+
+
+
4
4I-
+
+
+
f
+
+
4
4h
-
+
-1-
+
-p
+
—
+
+
4
+
+
4u
4.^
-
+
)-
+
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
+
-
4-
a>
O
-
4 - -
—
CJ
o
I
O
C
< C o o O s : c > - ^ u _ s < 3
1966
-
4-
-}4-
+
4-
44-
4-
+
+
^
f
+
-(-
4-
4444-
+
4-
+
+
4-
Natural oa<; fli^trihiitnr^
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
.«
_
+
_
+
4
-
_
<
_
-
_
,
_
-
-
+
.
-
,
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 7? components.
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
196fi
1966
Diffusion index title and components
£
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas,
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York fl)
Paterson(20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)**
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City(18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis(8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
79 57 45
51 38 45
-
-
83 53 46 57
+
+
4-
+
62
79 81 87 70 63 92 96 92 74
+
4-
4-
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity fails and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Series components are seasonally adjusted "by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
(Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is "based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
56
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND
EARLIER
EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
57
CHART
JULY 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
-Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957to
—
Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
-Reference trough dates
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost, mfg.
23. Industrial
materials prices
130
120
-i 110
110
100* 2
105
100"
J
70
95
24. New orders, much,
and equip. Indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
200
190
180
170
160
150
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100*
100"
90
90
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
80
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-1 is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level. *Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHART
bed
JULY
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1966
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
Reference trough dates
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
Feb. 1961)
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
b
\
•O
Percent
55.
Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
115
110
»—.
105*
1
100*
95
J
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
85
-12-6
0
+6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-i is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level.
* Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
JULY
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough: 4th 0. 1949)
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough: 3rd Q. 1954)
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
. 2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st Q. 1961)
1 1 1 immi M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 mi
iniii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M
-«
Reference trough dates
Percent
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
49. GNP in current dollars
-J 95
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
-12-6
0 +6+12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54+60
Months from reference troughs
67. Bank rates on
short-term business loans
-12-6
0 +6+12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54+60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quartets of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. O Latest data anticipated.
^Reference peak level, ir Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
Digitized for60
FRASER
bed
JULY 1966
CYCLICAL
COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
"'"I
|'",,|Mn,|.,nT1,1T.r
PERIOD COVERED
fc
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
.
-«
Reference trough dates
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product
Apr. 1958)
acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
+20
Percent
+15
-1 115
+10
62. Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
+5
-10
98.
Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg,)1
+10
+8
64. Book value of mfrs:
inventories
+6
+4
-2
J
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
90
-12 -6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion, Cnanges for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1
cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. l Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
»'Reference peak level. -^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
6T
TABLE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY 1966
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in-
Month
after
reference
trough !
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
Oct.
1949
June
1938
98.8
86.3
57.3
129.7
102.0
122.2
172.9
113.6
170.0
406.7
337.7
66.6
41.3
36.4
50.3
65.7
36.1
28.3
20.5
94.0
31-3
24.9
84.0
(NA)
36.5
16.7
175.1
128.3
113.4
138.5
66.3
65.7
10.6
67.7
201.8
157.1
108.1
81.4
132.1
132.2
92.1
138.3
185.1
54*9
158.9
162.3
74.2
68.8
52.6
(NA)
25.2
57.0
(NA)
12.3
96.6
88.9
121.0
106.1
80.8
47.6
79.2
24.1
175.2
106.5
155.8
113.7
163-5
89.8
126.2
100.2
146.3
90.8
130.5
129.0
128.0
100.5
243.1
108.8
152.3
107.6
101.4
96.8
240.6
85.1
162.8
175.4
223.3
(NA)
73.1
112.6
(NA)
(NA)
17.6
(NA)
40.7
71.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
47.8
40.1
(NA)
(NA)
130.8
(NA)
237-4
76.4
(NA)
(NA)
106.0
(NA)
149.4
55.4
(NA)
(NA)
116.5
+1.2
141.8
145.0
107.0
-1.3
122.7
133.3
107.2
-2.7
116.6
133.5
109.9
-0.9
134.4
146.3
133.3
(NA)
202.4
209.7
86.1
-19.6.
76.6
77.2
61.0
(NA)
56.3
57.3
99.0
(NA)
115.7
124.3
87.2
(NA)
119.7
(NA)
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
64th
63d
63d
6^th
103.3
132.4
236.7
158.2
101.3
106.4
98.2
130.0
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
64th
101.1
63d
63d
64th
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19. Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
60th
64th
64th
64th
64th
64th
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
86.0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultura! establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. .
47. Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
64th
64th
64th
63d
50 GNP in 1958dollars(Q)
51 Bank debits alt SMSA's except N Y.
52 Persona! income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
63d
64th
64th
64th
131.5
173.2
143.5
134.8
121.9
148.3
132.2
122.1
115.4
150.4
136.4
125.1
130.2
154.8
139.5
132.2
(NA)
174.7
204.7
145.1
93.2
56.4
77.5
80.3
83.0
49.9
57.2
54.1
126.8
153.9
124.8
110.7
(NA)
111.6
(NA)
119-4
64th
103.8
101.3
111.5
109.7
112.6
89.4
66.9
84.4
63.6
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b Anticipated4
60th
69th
159.8
175.1
100.8
112.7
118.7
129.2
117.6
133.2
(NA)
(NA)
57.5
50.6
21.6
38.8
122.7
89.9
66.0
61.4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt . .
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .
64th
63d
63d
63d
98.0
130.8
-172.5
108.8
101.3
112.6
154.6
103-7
110.8
116.7
175.5
143.7
112.5
145.8
276.9
134.1
145.3
155.7
54.4
(NA)
90.0
99.1
118.3
52.6
66.7
84.5
(NA)
(NA)
109.4
73.3
(NA)
(NA)
94.8
(NA)
(NA)
83.4
60th
62d
-3.3
+6.78
-0.8
+5.30
+5.2
-3.60
-5.2
+5.54
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
fOQdS
'
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplusor deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q) 3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3j5 .
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49,50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6,7, 9, 13,14,17, 24, 29,51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginningin June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendixA for the reference peak dates.
NA=Not available.
x
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
2
spans can be found in earlier, issues of BUSINESS CYCIE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only.
Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
62
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough i
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning inFeb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
July
1921
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
-33.0
-50.6
-60.1
-79.5
+2.2
+5.7
+45.8 +217.6
(NA)
-19.7
+148.0
-25.0
July
1924
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
64.th
63d
63d
6^th
+4.9
+22.5
+173.3
+69.0
+4.5
+17.0
+70.2
+47.3
+1.3
+18.9
-14.7
+44.9
+2.9
-3-1
+82.2
+99.6
+29.5
+90.3
(MA)
(NA)
-3.9
+0.8
-1.5
+162.1
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space^
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
64th
+1.0
+32.2
-3.1
-1.1
-29.4
+335.6
-89.8
-31.6
+106.1
63d
63d
64th
+68.0
+68.7
+16.3
+38.5
-16.8 . +22.3
+42.8
+56.7
-42.4
+84-2
+55.3
-36.7
+39.4
-38.9
(NA)
+110.7
-28.0
(NA)
-85.8
-6.9
-3.5
+74.3
+43.2
-10.4
+74-8
+9.4
+42.8
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
•
60th
64th
64th
64th
64th
64th
+99.6
+7.5
+38.4
+19.2.
+72.5
-7.4
+62.4+5.7
+67.6
+4.4
+47.8
+26.9
+33.5
+2.8
+92.2
+8.8
+63.5
-10.1
+24-3
-0.6
+131.5
+13-3
+85.7
+9.6
(NA)
(NA)
+16.4
+66.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+96.5
+71.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-63.5
-58.9
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3.
47 Industrial production
..
*.•
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
64th
64th
64th
63d
+18.8
+2.8
+50.4
+45.4
+11.4
+1.9
+42.8
+35.7
+11.0
+0.8
+28.2
+34-5
+15.8
+3.2
+46.8
+51.5
+48.8
(NA)
+196.2
+138.1
+25.9
+5.8
+58.9
+53.2
-36.5
(NA)
-40.2
-42.9
+13.9
(NA)
+40.8
+27.3
+26.6
(NA)
+75.3
+45.3
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
.
^
63d
64th
64th
64th
+33.5
+69.1
+42.1
+38.5
+26.2
+53.1
+31.9
+25.1
+18.0
+48.1
+36.4
+25.7
+32.4
+61.2
+46.3
+32.8
(NA)
+109.3
+129.9
+75.4
+29.4
+47.7
+57.4
+42.0
-18,9
-54-1
-43.2
-45.9
+27.1
+58.8
+24.8
+12.9
+45.0
+43.9
+43.3
+24.7
64th
+3.9
+1.8
+12.4
+15.6
+19.2
+23.5
-28.1
-7.6
+0.5
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated4
60th
69th
+71.3
+87.7
+25.5
+40.3
+24.3
+35.2
+47.0
+66.5
(NA)
(NA)
+235.0
+194.9
. -75.4
-55.8
+75.8
+28.9
+92.3
+78.9
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
64th
63d
63d
63d
-3.0
+32.2
+66.8
+17.1
-4.8
+16.9
+53.3
+20.1
+7.7
+24.8
+69.7
+50.6
+16.4
+56.2
+121.2
+33.6
+40.0
+64.5
-41.7
+22.7
+67.2
+147.5
-32.4
-32.3
(NA)
(NA)
-1.4
-17.8
(NA)
(NA)
+24.7
-18.5
(NA
(NA)
-22.6
60th
62d
+7.2
+1.30
+14.2
-0.76
+4.0
-6.60
+1.1
+4.72
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
(NA)
+H2.9
(NA)
(NA)
+127.9 +102.0
-8.9
+32.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
(NA)
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct. (Q)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66)r the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA=Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier iesues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series .
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels .
^Anticipated
expenditures (4-th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only.
Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough
Cycle
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
Is
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895 .
June 1899
September 1902
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
30
22
46
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 1907
January 1910. . .
January 1913
August 1918. . . .
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926. . .
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948. .
July 1953
14
13
43
13
&
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average , all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
X
49
2
54
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
4
46
5
48
6
(X)
40
5£
.silt
50
46
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New "business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
Dec. '60 Apr. !58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
May
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June !58
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
Feb. '58
Feb. «58
(NSC) Aug.
(NSC) Feb.
Mar. '54 July
Sep. '53 June
Feb. '54 June
Mar. '54 Apr.
Sep. '53 Jan.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24
Sep. '39 Dec. »34 Dec. '26 June '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '21
Jan. '21
(NA)
Aug. '21
July »21
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor Income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
Feb. !61 May
May '61 July
Feb. '61 Apr.
4thQ f60 IstQ
IstQ '61 IstQ
(NSC) Feb.
Dec. '60 May
Apr. '61 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Sep.
'58 Apr.
'58 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ
'58 Apr.
'58 Sep.
'58 Jan.
»54 Oct. '49
'54 Oct. '49
'54 Oct. '49
'54 4thQ r49
'54 2ndQ '49
'54 July '49
'54 Oct. '49
(NSC)
'54
June
June
May
2ndQ
IstQ
May
June
May
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. »22
(NSC)
'33
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ »21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ '61
Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing .Sep. !'61
June 61
Book value of manufacturers1 Inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ '61
3rdQ
Apr.
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
'49
'50
'50
'50
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks.
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
May
'59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Mar.
Feb.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
'46 July '37
'46 Dec. '36
(NA)
'48
'48 Feb. '37
'48 Mar. »37
(NA)
'48
'47
(NA)
Jan. '29 Sep. '25
Jan. '29 Oct. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Sep. '29
Mar. '29 Nov. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Apr. '23 Dec. '19
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 July '19
Mar. '23 Apr. »20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
. .,
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ (26 lotQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC)
(NSC) July '20
Sep. '29
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
July '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
'57 Sep.
'57 4thQ
'53
'54
'53
'53
4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NSC)
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ '57
3rdQ. '57
Aug. »57
Aug. '57
Aug. »57
2ndQ '60
Mar. '61
Sep. !60
4thQ '59
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip..
Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturijag.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).
'48
»49
'49
'49
3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
66
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes
i/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
1/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.48
.42
Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.75
4.47
Nonagri. 'placements, all industries... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 1.83
1.34
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.20
8.26
Temporary layoff all industries
Jan. '53-Sep, '65 17.13 16.59
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.95
4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan.. '53-Sep. '65 3.76
3.33
.19
1.40
1.09
3.42
3.64
2.23
3.20
1.23
2.41
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.74
.84
.63
.77
.96
2.08
2.14
2.11
1.95
1.57
1.50
1.54
1.52
1.46
1.42
11.69
9.50
7.24
8.94
6.61
3.75
3.72
3.97
4.69
2.69
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1.42
1.58
12.67
8.44
3.97
4.41
1.52
2.51
3
.88
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97 9.41
3.08
1.43
.89 7.91
1.29
2.54
.53 1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
7.84
1.54
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
1
C )
.84
C1)
.80
.66
.78'
C1)
(x)
1.60
1.88
1.38
1.85
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55
1.48 12.67
9.50
1.71
1.38 15.20
1.52 13.82
6.61
1.63
7.24
1.63
8.94
1.39
1.46 11.69
3.00
3.39
2.63
2.88
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58
.49
1.68
.25
1.64
1.92
1.02
3
2
.81
.57
2.20
2.37
1.79
1.58
6.61
9.50
4.55
3.97
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.30
Total nonagricultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
.36
Unemployment rate, total
Jan. '53-Dec. '65 3.92
Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54-Dec. '65 5.39
Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.19
46. Help-wanted advertising
Jan. f 53-Sep.'1 65 3.00
.14
.30
3.04
4.55
.26
.20
2.19
2.66
.55
1.50
1.39
1.71
1
2
2
2
.55
.80
.72
.91
4.90
2.01
2.54
3.41
1.46
1.60
1.60
1.56
16.89
25.83
8.16
7.82
4.90
3.42
3.95
4.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1.75
1.39
7.60
8.94
4.90
3.10
47. Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57
52 . Personal income
,
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.51
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr..Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.84
54. Sales of retail stores.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.97
55. Wholesale prices except farm products
and foods
Jan. '53-Sep. ''65
.16
.54
1.50
.26
.52
.83
,76
.64
.44
.63
.44
.71
2.34
.58
.82
1.88
1
3
1
1
3
.71
.58
.58
.82
.70
3.62
1.65
4.61
2.67
2.08
1.67 11.69
1.50 30.40
1.54 21.71
1.55 13.82
1.57 15.20
3.62
4.29
4.61
2.67
4.84
.09
.13
.71
1
.71
3.90
1.54
8.00
3.90
3.51
10.13
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18 3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69
4.39
7, Private nonf arm housing starts
May '59-Sep. '65 7.16
7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 3.65
3.28
38. Index of net business formation
.79
Jan '53-Sep '65
.60
13. New business incorporations
Jan. '53-Sep.. '65 2.49
2.18
14. Liabilities of business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15, Large business failures
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 12.31 12.12
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.59
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Tan > *5? ^on ' ft*S
2.49
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan '53-Sep '65 6.46
26. Buying policy production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 5.27
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 7.47
23. Industrial materials prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.31
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42.
43.
40.
45.
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64. Book value of mfrs.! inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan '53-Sep '65
.56
.53
.40
.19
.32
.49
1.28
.38
2
1
.72 2.41
.38 10.13
1.57
1.63
6.61
21.71
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan '53-Sep '65
.56
.84
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
1
1
.65 8.94
.14 11.69
1.49
1.63
13.82 8.94
21,71 11.69
4.42
4.25
3.80
3.87
27.42 27.34
13.86 13.59
24.51 24.35
.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
8.28
2.94
6
6
6
6
6
C1)
C11)
t)
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
99. New orders, defense products
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 22.53 22.53
114. Treasury bill rate
5.00
Jan '53-Sep '65 6.70
115 Treasury bond yields
Jan '53-Sep !65 1.65
1.31
116. Corporate bond yields. ................Jan. '60-Sep. '65 1.44
1.31
117. Municipal bond yields
2.08
Tan '53-Sep '65 2.46
118 . Mortgage yields
.07
Jul. '61-SeD. '65
.11
1.92 11.72
1.12
4.46
.93 1.41
.53 2.48
1.90
1.10
.65
.11
6
2
2
4
3
1
1.57
.73 2.53
.98 2.76
.93 2.27
.87 2.58
.65 10.00
1.48
1.77
2.00
1.62
1.88
1.92
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82,
83.
90.
91.
92.
Federal cash payments to public
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan.T55-Dec. '64
Defense Dept. oblig. , procurement
Jan. '56^Sep. '65
Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. '53-Sep. '65
Military contract awards in U.S
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
See
footnotes at end of table.
(*)
C1)
C1)
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
2.53
9.50
3.68
6.61
3.68
8.00
3.61
5.67
3.66
8.00
5.56 10.00
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERiES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES^-Con .
3.81
3.04
.15
6.64
1.45
3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54
.94 3.77
.80 3.59
.69
.13
1.55 4.12
1.28 ' .42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.69
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63
1.66 14.10
1.62 10.85
1.54 16.89
1.52 8.00
1.57 10.86
4.06
3.54
5.63
3.15
5.63
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37
21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/c
86. Exports, excluding military aid
Jan.'53-Oct. '64
87 . General imports
Jan. '53-Oct. '64
81. Consumer prices
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
94. Construction contracts, value
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . West Germany
126 . France
.
127. Italy
128 . Japan
i/c
Quarterly series
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, mfg
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 10.36
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 5.60
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.03
4.70
3.09
3.59
7.69
4.29
3.80
.61
.72
.95
1
1
1
.61
.72
.95
2.94
3.33
2.38
1.32
1.32
1.35
3.33
5.00
4.17
2.94
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
4.34
2.87
3.11
.92
1
.92
2.38
1.25
5.00
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.23
1.47
1.30
.38
.35
.31
1.09
1.39
1.26
.35
.25
.25
1
1
1
.35 3.33
.25 5.56
.25 10.00
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
1
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
.84
.42
.67
.62
1
.62
2.94
1.22
5.56
2.94
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 11.47
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.63
7.37
2.47
1.20
7.95
3.27
6.38
.93
.75
.19
1
1
1
.93
.75
.19
2.38
2.08
4.17
1.16
1.25
1.32
3.85
4.17
8.33
2.38
2.08
4.17
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57 . Final sale s
1.28 5.56 3.33
5.56
1.22 7.14
1.16 10.00 10.00
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110. Total private borrowing
111. Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
68 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MOD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated "by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the .irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a .measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month jrpans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MOD period.
For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans,
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with the number of
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
terms equal to
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series.
Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the .ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
debits, all SXlSA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
Monthly series
31, Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C MCD MCD
I
C MCD
span CI
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.60
.74 4.70
3.47
20, Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. '53- Sep. '65
.29 4.97
do
1.51
1.44
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53- Sep. '65 Bil, dol...
.48
.46
.13 3.51
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Jan. '55- Dec. '64 Ann. rate,
:
bil. dol.. 4.34 4.22
.82 5.16
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46.86 1.68
85 , Change in money supply
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
percent. . . 3.11
3.12
.29 10.88
do
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.29 8.78
2.52
2.53
112 . Change in business loans
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol. . 1.39
1.35
.35 3.87
.79
.87
113. Change in consumer installment debt... Jan. '53- Sep. '65
do
.31 2.56
88, Merchandise trade balance
Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28 3.23
Quarterly series
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
Ann . rate ,
bil. dol..
do
95. Balance 3 Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
89. U.S. balance of payments:
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
a Liquidity balance basis
IQ'60-IQ'66
b. Official settlements basis
I
C
i/c
2.28
2.49
1.43
1.35
1.44
1.78
1.00
.76
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
do
492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
CI
.98 1.48 1.45
8.94
2.79
6 C1) 1.67 1.50
4 .98 1.69 1.62
6.08
7.60
3.00
3.10
5
3
.98 1.59 1.43 7.44
.68 2.03 1.60 10.13
2.74
3.49
6
6
C11)
5
L.37 1.37 9.50 2.67
1.43 10.13 2.41
c ) 1.43
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64
3 .92 L.65 1.49 10.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42
2.56
3.13
2,64
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
QCD for
QCD
I
C QCD
span CI
2 .46 1.79 1.35 4.55
1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85
2
2
.45 1.67 1.25
.55 2.00 1.41
3.13
2.67
2.88
2.17
2.72
2.56
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown
part 1.
above have the same meaning as in
69
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES {NOV.1965 TO DEC. 1966)
1<?66
19€>5
Nov.
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations1
"14., Tn ahi "Ht-i'pp nf ^upinpps failures, , 4
15.
17.
18.
30.
37.
89.9
Feb. Mar. Apr, May June
92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1
92.6
73.3
July Aug. Sept. Oct.
81.9 113.0 140,4
73.1
104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1 82.6 105.2 84.5 76.7
86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2 91.9 99.5 93.3
107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1 111.2 110.1 94.8
95.0
Large business failures
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. 100.4
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2... 100.5
Nonagri. placements, all industries1. 97.6
Purchased materials, percent report88.6
ing higher inventorie s
55. Wholesale prices except farm prod100.0
ucts and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg... 99.5
100.0
SI. Consumer prices
101.4
82. Federal cash payments to public1
3
83. Federal cash receipts from public .., 165.
90.
91.
92.
112.
128.
Dec. Jan.
83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106.7
97.9 98.0 99.5 100.3 100.8
96.3
82. l t 79*.3 76.7 92*.8 102.1
100.8 101.6 85.7
101.1 102.0 96.3
106.2
110.7 109^8 101 '.3
92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9 101.6 97.4
100.1
102.6
100.0
105.8
655.
99.2
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement.... 96.4
Defense Dept. obligations, total
91 7 96 1
Military contract awards in U.S
85 4 90 5
Change in business loans4
101 3 101 3
Japan, industrial production index... 98.8 102.3
86.1
Nov. Dec.
92.5
92.0
88.0 103.6 138.5
93.5 86. 9 107.0
88.4 100.7 76.2
100.2 94.3 96.6 93.8 83.7
98.7 101.6 103.1 100.4 97.9
100.5
97.0
114.0 12l!<5 iii.b 98.4 S2*.i
93.2
95.0
87.9
88.4
92.6
100.1 100.0
102.2 100.5
100.0 99.9
91.4 94.4
-2964. 1315.
100.0
99.5
99.9
94.1
2258.
100.0 99.9
98.9 98.6
99.9 99.8
97.8 100.3
-1689. 1897.
99.9 99.9 99.9 99.8 100.0 100.0
98.0 103.9 101.2 98.1 97.0 99.6
99.9 100.2 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.0
104.7 94.5 118.3 97.4 104.0 98.7
4431. -4573. 1313. 2181. -4969. 165.
100.1
102.4
100.0
102.1
655.
82.8
94 4
95.5
100 4
94.0
99.2
97 5
113 8
100 5
108.2
95.6
96 1
84 3
100 5
99.4
179.0
142 2
174.7
99 8
100.6
96.4
91 7
85.4
100.7
98.8
99.2
96 1
90.5
101.3
102.3
83.4
82.0
87.2
99.5
100.7
95.7
91 4
90 1
100 2
99.9
87.8
112 6
77.5
99 1
99.9
87.6
95 3
94 4
98 7
96.0
92.7
99 4
109 3
99 4
99.8
99.9
100 7
96 3
99.7
100.0
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data
ally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
program.
^Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
70
from the application of these
trading-day factors.
to yield the monthly seasonMethod II seasonal adjustment
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions :
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937 -June
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
Feb.
Nov.
July
July
May
1945 -Oct. 19454
1948-Oct. 1949
1953-Aug . 19545
1957-Apr . 1958
1960-Fe"b 1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
41. Em-
47. Index
of industrial
in nonagri. es- productablishtion
ments
ployees
50. GNP 49. GNP
in 1958 in curdollars rent
dollars
(Q)1
(Q)1
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.6
-5.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-2.2
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
rf rt
-0. O
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-2.6
-1.4
41. Employees
in non-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.8
+3.4
3.5
7.1
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.1
51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-8.7
-3,6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
(Q)1
4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
2
2
Rate at
trough
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference trough to reference peak
47. Index
of industrial
production
Rate at
peak
2
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
agri. establishments
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
51. Bank
debits ,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference peak to reference trough
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
Rate at
peak
2
3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
1921-May
1924-Oet.
1927-Aug.
1933-May
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929
1937
19454
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
Oct . 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug. 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May
1948
19535
1957
1960
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+63.8
+25.6
+20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.5
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+20.5
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+16.0
+23.0
-2.6
-2.0
$.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
Median:6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945...
2
2
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the
3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for- quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
•"•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1953
1959
I960
1961
1962
I
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
72
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
317.1
324.5
339.6
374.8
391.4
412.1
402.9
428.0
443.6
453.4"
437.5
468.6
490.2
482.7
519.5
...
...
322.9
322.5
348.5
381.5
389.6
416.4
402.1
435.4
445.6
453.2
439.5
479.9
489.8
492.9
527.7
325.8
326.1
362.8
388.7
393.9
413.7
407.2
442.1
...
...
444-5
455.2
450*7
475.0
487.4
501.6
533.4
...
...
328.7
323.3
370.1
388.7
405.3
408.8
415.7
446.4
450.3
448.2
461.6
480.4
483.8
511.9
538.3
...
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Charts
Timing
classifica- 1
2
3
tion
Tables
1
2
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
73
July '64
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg..
2 Accession rate manufacturing »*
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus —
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
59
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
62
63
66
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
S
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
70
70
70
72
72
*66
*66
72
71
71
72
*66
*66
*66
71 71
71
Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Jan.
Feb .
Jan.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
'66
' 66
'64
'63
'66
' 66
'66
'63
!
63
'64
'66
'66
71
71
71
71
Aug.
July
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar.
'65
' 66
'64
'65
'65
'66
'65
'65
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
'65
' 65
' 65
'63
'64
'63
68
65
72
66
68
Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.
'64
' 64
'65
' 64
'64
*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 63
' 64
'64
*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74
Jan.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Sept.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'65
'65
'65
'65
' 64
'65
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
4Q RNP in rnrrpnt rlnllar<t
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
47. Industrial production
52. Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
54. Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
60
60
59
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
71
72
70
72
72
72
72
72
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing — L
L
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
38. Index of net business formation
L
L
13. New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries « . . . L
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . . L
U
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. . L
10, Contracts and orders, plant and equipmentL
L
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . . Lg
Ill Corporate gross savings
U
U
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-.
U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
58
••
60
--
66
-•
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
70
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31 Change mfg and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65 Mfrs ' inventories finished goods
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories..
26. Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .
L
L
L
Lg
Lg
L
L
14
14
14
IS
14
IB
14
14
14
60
62
63
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62. Labo'r cost per unit of output mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . .
16. Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
Lg
Lg
L
L
L
14
13
17
22
IB
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
61
58
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
••
67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68
70
70
70
70
70
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg - lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
73
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
Charts
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
85. Change in money supply
U
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93 Free reserves
66. Consumer installment debt
Lg
U
113 Change consumer installment debt
u
112. Change in business loans
u
110. Total private borrowing
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
u
Treasury bill rate
u
Treasury bond yields
u
Corporate bond yields
u
Municipal bond yields
u
Mortgage yields
Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Lg
Liabilities of business failures
L
Large business failures
21
21
21
21
21
18
12
12
114
115
116
117
118
67.
14
15
61
61
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
62
63
62
63
62
62
63
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
70
70
70
73
74
66
70
71
71
72
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
July
July
Nov.
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64
'64
'65
71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66
July
July
July
July
July
Aug .
' 64
' 64
'64
' 64
'64
' 64
Mnv
' fA
Mar.
'64
71
72
72
74
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July
'66
-66
'66
'65
72
72
72
72
70
70
70
66
May
May
May
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
'66
' 66
' 66
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
72
68
73
73
72
69
73
73
Mar.
Oct.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
73
73
73
July
July
July
' 64
' 64
' 64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
'64
' 64
'64
'64
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
86
87.
88.
89
Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of payments
U
U
u
u
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
68
68
69
69
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . .
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92 Military contract awards in U.S
99. New orders, defense products . ,
61-
••
62
63
70
70
••
70
70
70
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122.
123
125.
126
127
128.
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production OECD
production, United Kingdom —
production Canada
production, West Germany
production, France
production, Italy
production, Japan
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
*•
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl. Average workweek
D5. Initial claims
D6. New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
D19. Stock prices
D23. Industrial materials prices
D34. Profits, mfg
D35. Net sales, mfrs
D36. New orders
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter..
••
1-tnonth. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month. ,
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
D48. Freight carioadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-tnonth . .
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .
••
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
-•
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
•«
••
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
.•
*•
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
4445
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
55
55
48-9
48-9
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
-
••
••
••
••
..
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
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Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. " M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ", "EOMW indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQW indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which a series is listed in the Finding Guide. Thus, "(M,ll)w indicates a monthly
series listed in group II. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were
included in the I960 NBER list of 26 indicators*
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV),-Depart-
M. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M,l).-Department Of Labor,
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV).-ChlC3gO Purchasing
*2. Accession rote, manufacturing (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,fV).-National AsSOCJa-
tton of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
4. Number of persons on temporary,layoff, all industries (M,l).»Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,l)-"De-
partment of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Volue of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,IH).--Department Of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,1ll).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present {M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M,ill).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonogriculturol establishments (M,I).-Department Of Labor,
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
42. Total nonogricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l).-Department Of Labor, Bu-
(M,lll).«F. W. Dodge Corporation;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
reau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,III).-Department Of Commerce, Bureau
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l),-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M,l).—Department Of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,HI).—Na-
tional Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
46. Index of help-wonted advertising in newspapers (M,I),-National Industrial Conference
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,lll).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
*47, Index of industriol production (M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Board
*49, Gross national product in current dollars (Q,II).--Department Of Commerce, Office of
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,Vl).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over
of Business Economics
*50 Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(M,Vl),--Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*l6t Corporate profits after taxes{Q,V).--Department of Commerce,Office of Business Economics
*51. Bonk debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York (224 SMSA's)
(M,ll)*--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52, Personal income (M,H).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,ll).--Dep3ftment of CoiTI-
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).—Department Of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).--
Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,v).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV).--
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*21, Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q,iv).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Rotio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).--
merce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,n).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M,V).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ii).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,lll).--Department of Com-
merce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).~
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23, Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers'new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,III).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M,iv),-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,111).-De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagriculturol placements, all industries (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries(EOM,IV).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOMrlV).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,vi).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure
for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ,VI).-Board Of Governors Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,v).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National income Division
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICI
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CUSS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Con.
28 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
112. Net change in bonk loans to businesses (M,VI).~Boacd Of GOVfrrtOTS Of the Federal
81. Index of consumer pricts (M,V)."Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cosh payments to the public (M,vill).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal
adjustment by the Bureau of the Census
83. Federal cosh receipts from the public (Q,M,vlfl).--Treasury Department, Bureau of
Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal
adjustment by the Bureau of the Census
84. Federol cosh surplus or deficit (Q,M,Vlll).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment
by the Bureau of the Census
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).--
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board Of Governors Of the Federal
Reserve System
114. Discount rote on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M,V!).«Boarti Of GOVeffWCS Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
H5. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,Vl).--Treasny Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of hiyh-gradt corporate bonds (M,VI).~Ftr$t National City BatlK
of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-band average (W,VI).--Th3 Bond Buyer, DO seasonal adjustment
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (tt,VI).~Fed6fal Housing Administration;
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).-Department Of Commerce,
no seasonal adjustment
Bureau of the Census
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
87. General imports, total (M,VII).--Departflient of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M,VII).-Department Of Coffi-
merce, Bureau of the Census
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European C<Hi«tries,ffldex
of industrial production (M,IX).-Organization for Economic Cooperation snd
Development
122. Unit«d Kingdom, index of industrial
89. Excess of receipts or payment! in U.S. balance of payments (Q,VII).-Department Of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
production (M,!X).«Ce*ttral Statistical Office
(London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M,tx).-Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
90. Defense Deportment obligations, procurement (M,VMI).-Department Of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
125. West Germany,
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,vill).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
index of industrial
production (M,IX).~$tatlSti$CheS BiindeSamt
(Wiesbaden)
126. France, index of industrial production (M,IX).-lnsWut National de Statisttque et des
Etudes Economiques (Paris)
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M,VIII).-Department of Defense,
Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,V!).~Board Of GOV-
ernors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).--F. W. Dodge Corporation
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M,iX).~lnstituto Centrale di Statistica (Roue)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M,IX).~Mtf>istry of International Trade ar>d
Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by compiler and Bureau of die Census
. . . United States, index of industrial production (M,H).«$e« SeHeS 47.
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q, VI11).-Department of Com-
merce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orde rs, durable goods industries (EOM,lll).-Departmentof Com-
nierce, Bureau of the Census
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion Index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same
sources. See sources above for Dl, 05, D6, Oil, D19, D23, D41, 047, 054, and D61.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows;
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,HI),--National Industrial Confer-
ence Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent cKonge in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency)
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-Fkst National City Bank of Nw York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted
by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
and com-
mercial bank time deposits (M,vi).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
99. New orders, defense products (M,vill).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adfustment
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinanciol borrowers in credit markets (Q,VI).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations(Q,III).-Board Of Governors Ofthe
Federal Reserve System
D48. Freight carloodtngs (Q),"Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (Mj.-Departmerrt of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
@FedFRASER