Full text of Business Conditions Digest : July 1963
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
JULY 1963
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH JUNE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
JULY
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER Deputy Uirector
HOWARD C GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, >., Assistant Director lor Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief. International Statistical Program.- Office
JOHN C. BAKER, Public Information Officer
1963
DMA THROUGH JUNE
Office of tho Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
SAMUEL L. BROWN, Assistant Chief
Series ESI No. 63-7
Subscription price is $4 a year ($1 additional for
foreign mailing). Single issues are 40 cents.
Airmail delivery in the United States is available
at an additional charge of $5.25 per year.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Fie Id Office. See list below.
This report is prepared under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief
Economic Statistician of the Bureau of the Census. His technical staff
includes Feliks Tamm, Allan H. Young, and Betty Tunstall. Editorial
supervision is provided by 'Heraldine Censky of the Statistical Reports
Division.
The cooperation of the various government and private agencies which
provide data for the report is gratefully acknowledged. Credit is given
to these agencies in the list of series and sources on the back cover of
this report.
Correspondence about technical subject matter should be addressed to
the Office of the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census,
Washington, D.C. 20233.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FIELD OFFICES
Albuquerque, N» Mex. 87101
U.S. Courthouse
Anchorage, Alaska 94501
Room 60, U.S. Post Office
and C«uHhouse
Atlanta, Ga. 30303
4th Fl., Hcrne Savings
Hank Bld^
75 Forsyth St., N.W.
Birmingham, Ala. 35203
Title Building
2028 Third Ave. N.
Boston, Ma SB, 02110
Room 230
80 Federal Street
Buffalo, N.Y, 14203
504 Federal Bldg.
117 Ellicott St.
Charleston, 5i,C. 29401
Suite 201, Marcus Bldg.
6 Broad St.
Cheyenne, Wyo. 82001
207 Majestic Bldg.
16th and Ccpitol Ave.
Chicago, III. 60606
Room 1302
226 West Jackson Blvd.
Cincinnati, Ohio 45202
809 Fifth Third Bank Bldg.
36 K. Fourth St.
Cleveland, Ohio 44101
Federal Reserve IBank Bldg.
E. 6th St., and Superior Ave.
Dallas, Tex. 75201
3-104, Merchandise Mart
500 S. Ervay St.
Denver, Colo. 80202
142 New Custom House
19th and Stout Sts.
Detroit, Mich. 48226
438 Federal Bldg.
230 W. Fort St.
Greensboro, N.C. 27402
407 U.S. Post Office Bldg.
Los Angeles, Calif, 90015
450 Western Pacific Bldg.
1031 S. Broadway
Memphis, Tt'nn. 38103
212 Falls Bldg.
22 N. Front St.
Hartford, Conn. 06103
18 Asylum Street
Honolulu, Hawaii 96813
202 International Savings Bldg.
1022 Bethel St.
Minneapolis, Minn. .55401
304 Federal Bldg.
110 S. Fourth St.
New Orleans, La. 70130
1508 Masonic Temple Bldg.
333 St. Charles Ave.
Houston, Tex. 77002
5102 Federal Bldg.
515 Rusk Ave*
Jacksonville, Fla. 32202
512 Greenleaf Bldg.
204 Laura St.
Kansas City, Mo. 64106
Room 2011
911 Walnut St.
Miami, Fla. 33132
408 Ainsley Bldg.
14 N.E. First Ave.
Milwaxikee, Wis, 532'03
Straus Bldg., Suite 1201
238 West Wisconsin Ave.
New York, N.Y. 10001
Empire State
Philadelphia, Pa. 19107
Jefferson Bldg.
1015 Chestnut St.
Phoenix, Aris. 85025
New Federal Bldg.
23 ON. First Ave.
Pittsburgh, Pa. 15222
1030 Park Bldg.
355 Fifth Ave.
Portland, Oreg. 97204
217 Old U.S. Courthouse
520 SW Morrison St.
Reno, Nev. 89502
1479 Wells Ave.
Richmond, Va. 23240
2105 Federal Bldg.
400 N. Eighth St.
St. Louis, Mo. 63103
2511 Federal Bldg.
1520 Market St.
Salt Lake City, Utah 84101
222 SW Temple St.
San Francisco, Calif. 94011
419 Customhouse
555 Battery St.
Santurce, P.R. 00907
Room 628
605 Condado Ave.
Savannah, Ga. 31402
235 U.S. Courthouse and
Post Office Bldg.
125-29 Bull St.
Seattle, Wash. 98104
809 Federal Office Bldg,
909 First Ave,
Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in tljis field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual tinning relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the connposition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change' from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc.
These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Revisions, back to January I960, are shown
throughout the report for the following series: 16,
17, 21, 22, 49, 50, 52, 57, 62, 63, and 95,
Revisions, back to January 1962, are shown for series
53. These changes reflect periodic revisions in
national income accounts made by the Office of
Business Economics.
2. The series on industrial production ( s e r i e s
47) and the diffusion index for this series (D47)
have been revised for the period,, January to December 1962, based on revisions of the Federal
Reserve Board.
3. Table 6 showing the directions of change has
been redesigned to include changes over 1-month
and either 3- or 5-month spans, depending upon the
irregularity of the series. However, the directions
of change are shown for only the most recent 12
months«,
4. Diffusion indexes D5, D6, and D54 shown in
chart 2 and table 4 have been recomputed over a 5month span to bring out the business cycle pattern
more clearly.
5. Seasonal factors for the period July to December 1963 have been included in appendix D.
6. Appendix G shows historical data for series
5, 6, and 24.
7. A series index to charts, tables and appendixes has been included to aid in finding series
throughout the report.
The August issue of Business Cycle Developments is
scheduled for release on August 21,
ii
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators . . .
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators . .
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1. — Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January I960 to
Present
6
11
14
15
18
20
A n a l y t i c a l Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During
Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business
Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3.—Diffusion Indexes — Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present .
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic
Activities: January I960 to Present
•
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified
Time Spans and Percent of Series Rising: July 1962 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods
Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
,
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
E. (D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
State Programs
F. ( D 4 l ) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. ( D47) Index of Industrial Production
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
iii
30
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Contents
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4.—Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9
Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as
Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates
in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9,—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from
Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After
the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
57
58
59
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of
Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 ....
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for
Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series (not shown this month)
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business
Cycle Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER
(November 1962 to December 1963)
,
Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix G. —Historical Data for Selected Series
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration
with the National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for
much of the early research in this field. The book, "Signals of Recession and
Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical trends, a more detailed description of the indicators and
measures used, and additional historical data. This book was issued as
Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of. Economic Research, 261
Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y * ( 2 0 7 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators,
appear in this book.
v
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table l ) . — O v e r 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading," "roughly coincident, " or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy. The series are described as
follows:
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( l ) the magnitude of current changes connpared to previous changes, ( 2 ) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places .
NBER Leading Indicators. —Around 30 series
^r
eak or troughs before those in agusually reach peaks
gregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
NBER Lagging Indicators . —Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing . Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
which have important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
Seasonal Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
1
Descriptions and Procedures
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S.
business firms
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER, The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D, except for series 97 which is
the sum of seasonally adjusted components, and
series 9 which is based on unpublished source data.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the collecting
agency will be substituted for the series mentioned
above whenever they are published.
MCD Moving Averages
come. 1 MCD moving averages are shown for some
series in chart 1. To provide an indication of the
variation about these moving averages,, seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted for years beginning
with 1960.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historical
series and shown in appendix C.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented— rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distribution!?, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. 2 For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging a;ad appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This
span ie usually longer than a single month because
month - to - month change s are often dominate d by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used ] 2-month span (change from the same month
a year ago) , and is different for different series
(see; appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is . They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions .
MCD is the first interval of months for which
the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so. It is small for smooth series and large
for ii regular series.
The differences between
moving averages of the period equal to MCD are
commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by the same MCD
span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3month moving average are commensurate with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3-month
spans,, MCD moving averages all have about the
same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD
moving averages of highly irregular series, such
as business failures and Federal cash payments,
will show their clyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for such smooth
series as industrial production and personal in-
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
*For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: I960 .
2
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "eontraction" ar,d "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
Descriptions and Procedures
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, etc.) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the 3-month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5) . Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
and D58) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator (D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators. They include two
indexes on capital appropriations (602 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits (200 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
"anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers'sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings ( 19 commodity groups) , based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries), based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
months (see table 3) . Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distribu-
tions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 rhonths before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded. (For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions .) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table l) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures.
That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- or
5-month spans.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
Descriptions and Procedures
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes? in the' current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans
from previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is designated as representing changes from
reference peak levels and from reference peak
date a 7"
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In. this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed
from their respective reference peaks to dates
which are the same number of months beyond the
succeeding reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of
comparison is designated as representing changes
computed from reference peak levels and from
reference trough dates. Although the spans from
reference trough dates are the same for each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak dates
are different, depending on the length of the contractions. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level d activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares in this respect with
earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates. This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak is April I960; the specific peak in s.tock
prices is July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough ievels are set equal
to 100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related ueries for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New p rivate nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1 , 2 , and 3) .—
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Five ratio scales and several arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series . The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) . — These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion or recession with that
during the corresponding phase of previous business
cycles. In these charts the usual date sequence
followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the
data are alined at a strategic point of the business
cycle, either the trough or the peak. Thus these
charts facilitate judgements on the vigor of a current expansion or the severity of a current recession relative to cyclical movements during the
corresponding phases of previous cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or £efe^ence__cy_cle (i. e., the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles.
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined,, See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons.
Descriptions and Procedures
Trough fT) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by N
Peak fP^ of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Solid line indieotes monthly
data, (Such data may be the
table-1 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexescharts 2 and 3.)
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
("5"-May)
Broken lines indicate table-1
ita for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
Parallel lines indicate a break
in C6ntinuity--e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
[uarter for which data are plotted
'T' = first quarter)
See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series
ted line indicates anticipated
,61. Bus. expend., new plant
and equip, (bil. dol,)»Q
Solid line with quarterly
quart
plotting points indic:ates
quarterly data
Vorious rotip and qrithmeti c sea les
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. '"Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-I" is
a^semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
'SSWs&xz^
1??^^
:; ^-"".V.= -^'.'f..v ,;v"^s.-;- : -v^-- , - ; . - • : .
Bt^'^^
.h'i^:'^V^^=:"'i't:'•'^ ::'%V;v.,l;;'. .' '.:':>'>• l ' ", ' ,'. •" " '•'.'.* ' " . • • .'•.'' : = = ' ••".':?:.'
•
.,..
- . , ...-T
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
{Oct.)
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
I
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
42
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hrs.)
41
40
39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
v
v,
5.0
4.0
3.0
30. Nonagr. placements, all indus. (thous.)
,600
500
1
400 *
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees}inverted scale
I
2
3
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.)
inverted scale; MCD moving avg,— 5-term
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.}—inverted scale
1
200
2
300 5
§
400
500
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5,
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
[New investment commitments
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus.
(bil.
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (bil. dol.K
9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq. ft. floor area
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. doL)-Q_
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (mil.)
29. New bldg. permits, private housing unitsj.,//*
(index: 1957-59=100):
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Aug.)
(Oct.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
New businesses and business failures li :
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol,)tv.:,
inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term ••/•
15. Large bus. failures (no, per wk.)-inverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 6-term
1948
1949
1950
See "How to Read Charts
1951
1952
1953
I, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
f
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
••;0V<; 16. Corporate profits, after taxes {bil. dol.)-Q''.». •'
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.(index: 1957-59=100)
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)—Q
; 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,?
all industries (percent)-Q
19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices!
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bil. dol.)-Q
•,^
,.../
'.J31. Change in book value, mfg.:
;;..'•'; and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of purch.f|[..,
mtls. (bil. dol.)!
37. Percent reporting higher inventories (NAPA)
26<
Bt
*y'"9 Policy, prod, mtls. (percent reporting commitments 60 da
.;;;rf
32. Vendor performance (percent reporting slower deliveries)
:Vr '>
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)
ttVV'.-V:
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
-J
1948
1949
1950
T951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3/ page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
80
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
B
(Nov.)
P
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Oct.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
60
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)j.
Employment and unemployment
55 3
8
50
65
42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)
60 2
50
3.0
4.0
43, Unemployment rate (percent)—inverted scale
\A
5.0
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent)—inverted scale
2.0
3.0
4.0 <
5.0 §
6.0
7.0
45. Av. weekly insured unemployment rate '„'.. .'
(percent)--inverted scale
-' "•"
3.0
4.0
5,0 <
-£
6.0 §
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100]
120
100
80
60
7.ft
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
ni i titAt,
"l"l»ki:
till
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
12
Basic Data
| CHAR'fT^
—ar
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Fab.)
P
T
(July) (Apr,)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
130
120
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
110
1
100
90
500
47550. GNP in 1954 dollars (bil dol.)-Q
450 1
425 §
400
600
550
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol.)-Q
500
450
400
600
550
500
57. Final sales (bil. do(.)-0
450
400-4
1
350
300
__
250
ulnli
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 .1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
llllllll.
i&.lnl,
J,.lull
li.lnli
1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
{Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
2.2
2.0 .
•~ 51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)
1.6
450
400*
375
350
325
>>y::
120
115
110
105
100 :
95
90
85
80
""'" •
*<•!•/• 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil, dol.)
"'.."*:.•./.•
y^ii
*
V**::?:A>::.
21
20
• '•*
19
18 ,
17 !
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
16
15
U
:•».'&••*••
.. •...-.::; 55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods {.'.>»"
(index: 1957-59=100)
110
Wholesale prices |
90
80
ul.,1,1
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
lull, nltilu
1962
1963
Basic Data
14
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
L-i!
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)-Q •
Investment expenditures
'.
'
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
Cost poi unit of output
.:••".' 63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59=
v
'"j'.:'
64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories
(bil. dol.)£'•.-..•
.
'.- •..-. ••
;,,v/<
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, 'finished good
; "'V:
""":•:
1948
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
67. Bank rotes on short-term bus. loans (percent)-Q
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1960 1961 1962
1963
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bit. dol.)
87. General imports (bil. do'.)
Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.)
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balanc
of payments (bil. dol.)-Q
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
16
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
I
F:ederal budget and military obligations
"
82. Fed, cash payments to public (bil. doL):;:..:x>;
MCD moving average— 5-term
'.:.:.../•
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average-5-term
84. Fed. cosh surplus orjieficit (bil. dol.) VS:moving average- 5->erm
95. Surplus of deficit
Fea. Income and prod.:!:;
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q
:
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average— 6-term
91, Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average— 5-term
W"''
'-**
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)
to CD moving average—6-term :>'•:
1948
1949 1950
See "How to Read Charts
1951
1952 1953 1954
, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
85. Change in money supply (percent)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)
81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59= 100) | „
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.) -Q
.v •".•••
-J 4.0
}948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
18
Basic Data
CHART I
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Oct.)
T
Industrial production indexes
countries (index: 1957-59-100)
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59=100)^
.'
123.
WAV.""'
",•',,
Can da (index: 1957-59=100)
47. United States (index: 1957-59=100) •:&
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
See "How fo Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956 1957 1958
1959
1960
1961 1962 1963
19
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production-^—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes-con
-I 140
Germany (index: 1957-59=000)
5? 126. France (index: 1957-59-100)
/•: 127. Italy (index: 1957
•• V ».':
-J 40
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3, " page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
20
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by GD; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14t 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shewn on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA», not available.
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Average 2. Accession 30. Nonagriworkweek of rate, manu- cultural
production facturing
placements ,
workers ,
all indusmanufactries
turing
(Hours per
(Per 100
prod. wkr. ) employees ) (Thous. )
Year and
month
3. Layoff 4. Number of
rate, manu- persons on
facturing temporary
layoff, all
industriesx
(Per 100
employees ) (Thoufj.)
5. Avg. weekly6. Value of 24. Value of
initial claims mfrs . ' newmf rs . ' new
for unemploy- orders, dur-orders, mament insurance, able goods chinery and
State programs industries equipment
industries
( Thous . ) (Bll. dol.) (Bll. dol,)
1960
April
May...
July.. „
Octobcir,
Nbveniber
40.4
40.1
39.9
39.8
40.1
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.3
©38,5
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3,7
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
©3.3
506
535
513
504
494
482
460
488
473
460
461
455
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2,6
2.7
2,6
2.3
2.6
2.9
122
110
116
156
160
145
177
154
153
166
128
183
281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
' 373
385
381
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22
^5.04
,.5.14
5.06
5.12
5.17
5.01
4.78
4.96
4.87
©4.65
4.81
4.66
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.7
39.8
39.9
40.0
40.0
39.6
40.2
40.6
40.4
4.0
3-8
®4,6
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.0
4.1
3.7
4.4
4.0
3.8
443
443
467
©44-0
478
497
481
519
502
527
542
544
2,9
©2.9
2.3
1.9
2,0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.1
,173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127
393
.©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
©12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14-79
14.90
15.02
15.63
15.74
16.07
16.10
16.24
4.79
4.80
5.10
4.99
5.17
5.30
5.28
5.55
5-45
5.59
5.74
5,48
39.8
40.3
40.5
'GD40.8
40.6
40.5
40.5
40.2
40.5
40.1
40.4
40.3
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
4.1
4.0
3;8
4.0
3.6
3.5
565
550
568
578
0602
546
560
551
540
569
563
529
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.0
154
(El 82
118
112
116
114
128
131
120
129
139
114
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
16.43
16.19
16.00
15.73
15.97
15.44
16.27
15.91
15.89
16.57
16.34
16.02
5*78
5.71
5.59
5.47 '
5.60
5.62
5.71
5,60
5.69
5,62
5.85
5.74
40.2
40.3
40.4
40,3
r40.7
P40.7
3.9
3.9
558
547
550
582
561
520
2.0
1.8
1.6
rl.6
Epl.6
179
112
108
146
87
85
316
295
SI 277
288
287
288
2
253
:.96i
January
torch,,.
April,
May.
June «
July.,,
September
October.
December,
:.962
February
March
April
»
toy
July
August
September. .....
Octobor . *
November
December
1963
March
April
May
June
July
Augus t
4.1
F4.2
P3.9
(NA)
(HA)
,
16.71
17.09
17.48
El r 17. 89
r!7.67
pl6.77
5.75
5.89
5.84
r6.01
G3r6.l6
P6.06
October
November
1
!ieginnlng with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark Tor computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the s 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Uaek ended July 6, 1963.
Basic Data
21
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continoed
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by QT]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
floor space)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5.58
5.39
5.58
5.51
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
Year and
month
(Mil. sq; ft.
1960
January. .......
March
April
*
ffcy
40.31
June
julv
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
September
October
38.15
December
1961
36.21
February
March
April
May
July
September
October
November
December
1962
January
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
38.99
44.10
45.19
March
April
May
June
July
August
40.87
45.39
42.99
39.86
42.65
39.90
October
December
1963
January
February, .."....
March
April
May
1
41.62
41.68
42.48
44.94
46.98
38.92
37.87
047.95
July
September ......
December
(NA)
©5.27
5.39
5.28
5.53
5.45
5.58
5.53
5.73
5.90
5.82
6.13
5.97
6.16
6,42
6.02
6.34
6.38
6.31
6.11
6.27
6.29
6.37
6,29
6.24
6.24
6.50
6.59
6.36
6.51
6.37
r6.63
®p7*04
(NA)
7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309.
1,264
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987
2.24
*.*
...
2.01
•..
©1.79
• ••
•..
2.11
1.82
•* .
1.92
.
2*. 24
•.•
• •. •
2.13
• ••
2.32
2.00
2.43
132.74
P2!l3
(NA)
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building permits
12. Net change
in business
population,
operat ing
businesses
13. Number
of new business incorporations
(1957-59-100)
(Thous. )
( Number )
98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
91.4
©87.1
1,108
1,087
1,258
1,162
1,278
1,376
1,333
1,303
1,397
1,413
1,345
1,255
89.3
89.4
92.3
92.5
93.0
97.6
98.4
101.2
97.4
103.1
102.7
111.6
1,247
1,134
1,407
1,521
1,566
1,399
1,447
1,500
1,261
1,504
1,571
1,453
103.9
113.1
105.3
112.4
103.2
104.0
106.1
102.8
107.3
107.4
115.8
[3120.6
1,220
1,255
1,510
rl,631
EH]pl,663
pi, 568
117.3
112.8
112.9
110.2
r!20.5
P117.3
+19
••.
*••
+17
*..
+14
+10
©+6
*•.
+10
+10
•.*
• ••
+10.
• ••
+ii
13+12
• •»
+ri
+ii
+ii
(NA)
16,561
15,274'
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,035
14,264
14,097
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
016,149
15,711
15,279
15,775
15,727
15,372
15,363
14-, 990
15,171
15,216
15,232
15,121
14,892
14,767
14,457
15,398
15,604
15,257
p!5,739
(NA)
22
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by GO; the reverse is
true for Inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures
(Mil. dol.)
15. Business 16. Corpofailures with rate profits
liabilities after taxes
of $100,000
and over
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index
(Number per
week)
(1957-59100)
Revised1
1960
torch
April
„ , ...
JfeV
»....
June
July
« .. . .
«... .
September * *
October. .......
November . .
December. . ,
1961
February .......
March. . . . ,
April..,. ,
May
June
July
August. . * „
September
October. ..,..,..
52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94.66
86.02
65.98
80.44
82.78
29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
GD71.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101,53
86.03
74.89
108.58
94.54
91.70
107.48
132.64
103.73
122.39
98,94
90.41
37
032
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
153.15
90.04
93.49
89.72
122.31
89.37
49
42
41
40
54
38
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
Revised1
aili
22.6
2(X9
20^4
©19 .*2
2l'.6
22*.6
24^3
103.6
102.3
101.9
101.4
100.8
100.4
100.4
99,9
99.9
100.0
99.9
98.9
99.2
©98.9
99.0
100.0
100.2
100.9
101.2
13102.6
102.2
102.0
101.7
102.1
18, Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
Income originating, corporate, all
industries
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
( Cents )
(Percent)1
Revised
(1941-43»10)
*..
8.8
•.•
alo
•. .
9.7
9.1
7.8
ali
7.2
*.•
B.I
©6!6
©7.*7
•..
7.6
8^5
*.•
7.9
• ••
s!s
08.6
•..
mw
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54,81
©53.73
55,47
56.80
59.72
62.17
. 64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
(371.74
21. Change in
bus. inventories, farm and
nonf arm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
, +9*.3
+4la
+2.7
-als
<E>-4.*3
•*-ili
+3^5
+7^2
1962
February
March
April
May
July
September ......
October
November
Decewiber
1963
March
April
May
June
Ju3y.
24^2
24^6
24^3
025^5
25^4
(NO
101.2
101.0
101.4
100.6
101.1
100.7
101.3
100.0
102.4
101.3
101.3
100.9
100,7
100.0
100.8
100.7
102.0
102.4
September
October
December
A
See
2
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
July 18, 1963.
s!2
9'.!
all
• «•
9."i
ali
&'.9
alS
».•
ili
7.*9
ill
(NO
(NO
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
2
68.49
GD+a'.i
+<s;5
+3!6
+4.0
+s!i
+3 .*5
Basic Data
23
Toble l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p«» preliminary; »e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventoriesf
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
January
torch
April
May
June
July
September
October.
December
1961
January. • * * * .
March
April
Mav. .
July
August
September
October
November
20. Change in 37. Purchased
book value of materials,
mf rs . ' invenpercent- retor iest
porting higher
purchased
inventories
materials
(Ann. rate, ' ( Percent
bil. dol.) reporting)
26. Buying pol-32. Vendor
icy, production performance ,
matls . , percentpercent
reporting com- reporting
slower
mitments 60
days or longer* deliveries*
( Percent
(Percent
reporting)
reporting)
25. Change in 23. Index of
manufacturers ' industrial
unfilled or- materials
ders, durable prices*
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
40.4
-0.6
+2.4
-2.1
-6.2
+4.6
+1.5
-fO.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4
48
58
52
47
44
45
42
37
41
38
41
39
64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48
44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-O.77
-0.41
-0.30
105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96. B
-5-8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
[3+7.8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.37
-0.02
+0.02
+0.46
+0.23
+0.11
+0.31
+0.35
+0.06
+0.29
+0.34
+0.55
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
®104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3.1
+4.3
+3.3
-3.0
+5.7
+3.8
-1.9
+3.1
[Hl+5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.8
-0.9
+0.7
(353
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
061
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.53
+0.22
-0.10
-0.34
-0.31
-0.32
-0.05
-0.57
-0.55
-0.18
-0.52
r+0.05
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
• 95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.3
+1.9
+4.7
r+2.8
p+2.0
(NA)
+1.1
+1.0
•HD.3
r+1.0
p+0.4
(NA)
46
48
46
49
57
57
55
50
55
54
53
52
57
50
52
54
®60
58
54
r+0.31
+0.61
IE +1.42
r+0.64
r+0.68
p-0.41
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
*94.1
1962
February
March
April
Jfey
July
August
October
December
1963
March
April
May
July
October
December
18, 1963.
Basic Data
24
Toble l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1930 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by (H]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p" t preliminary; Me", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year ancl
month
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Thous. )
42. Total
43. Unemnonagricul- ployment
tural em- rate, total1
ployment ,
labor force
survey1
( Thous . )
40. Unem45. Avg. weekly
ployment
insured unemrate, mar- ployment rate,
1
ried males State programs
(Percent)
( Percent )
( Percent )
46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers
(1957-100)
1960
March
April.
May, . . . ,
June * . » *
July.. . *
August. * . . » * . . .
November. ......
December, . , . . * .
(1957-59100)
Revised2
54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707
60,521
60,863
60,464
61,144
61,252
61,215
61,090
60,982
61,114
60,857
61,142
©60,801
5.29
4.96
5.45
5.21
5.18
5.46
5.48
5.66
5.60
5,98
6.20
6.60
3.38
3.11
3.53
3.35
3.42
3,60
3.72
3.85
3.80
4.28
4.22
4.74
4,27
4.17
4,54
4.26
4,19
4*39
4,67
5B10
5,38
5.68
6-27
©6,33
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89,4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
111.7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492
60,980
60,912
6l,3H
61,111
61,091
61,448
61,254
61,283
61,330
61,476
61,766
61,788
6.68
7.03
6.82
7.01
©7.11
6.91
6.96
6.67
6.69
6.42
6.07
5.98
4.78
©5.09
4.72
4.91
5.00
4.78
4.74
4.61
4.54
4.12
3.94
3.91
6.15
6,32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
55,617
55,536
55,583
55,647
55,597
55,580
61,882
62,148
62,356
62,295
62,552
62,541
62,715
63,017
63,074
63,036
62,708
63,248
5.84
5.69
5.49
5.58
5.52
5.50
5.43
5.67
5.63
(U5.34
5.76
5.54
3.81
3.59
3.53
3.69
3.48
3,64
3.54
3.54
3.43
3.35
3.43
3.57
4.71
4.52
4-41
3.93
3.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4.38
4.55
4.84
4.79
102.3
105.9
0106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
92.8
96.8
95.9
e95.2
114.6
116.3
117.3
117.8
118.3
118.4
119.4
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.5
119.1
55,536
55,730
55,963
r 56, 191
r56,413
[H)p56,556
62,988
63,245
63,628
063,851
63,643
63,693
5.77
6.09
5.59
5.65
5.91
5.66
3.81
4.04
3.50
3.37
3.37
[S3. 12
4.84
4.69
4.39
4.03
3.96
03.53
3
4.02
e97.5
elOO.5
e98.5
100.2
95.9
P95.6
119.2
120.2
121.3
122.5
rl24.1
[M)pl25.1
50. Gross
national
product in
1954- dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 2
439! 9
442 !l
U0.2
437 .1
1961
February ........
March
April
May
«....
July
October. . i 4 . . * *
©434.0
443.4
450.4
463 !l
1962
April.
May
July
AUgUSt . . . r,
November.
December. ......
46?! 8
474.' 6
475 .*6
481.4
1963
March
April
May
June
July
485 .'3
06489 \f>
September
October
December
'•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
3
Week ended June 29, 1963.
Basic Data
25
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by GD » "the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NAM,'not available*
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1960
49. Gross na- 57. Final
tional product sales
(series 49
in current
dollars
minus 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
February
March
April
5o6iZ
491 il
tfey
504ll
499.9
503 '.5
500.7
502.1
504.4
©50CU
504^7
512 '.5
siiii
52IU9
518 i 3
537 Is
530 is
544^5
536ij
552i4
546^6
August
556 is
553 !l
October
November
565^2
561.2
Julv
October
51. Bank
52. Personal
debits outside income
NYC, 343
centers
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Labor
54. Sales of
retail stores
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
395. Q
395.6
395.9
400.8
402.3
403.0
402.7
403.5
404.4
405.2
404.5
©403.2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
Revised1
108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8 '
1,916.9
404.4
405.3
410.1
411.7
4H.5
417.3
420.8
419.1
420.5
424.3
428.4
431.3
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,OU.4
2,015-0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
2,148.7
2,086.4
r2,096.3
[32,198.6
2,150.9
p2,105.2
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(1957-59-100)
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101,3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
•107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
©17,773
17,786
18,117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
430.1
434.0
436.4
439.5
440.8
441.7
443.5
444.6
445.5
447.7
449. 9
452.1
111.3
112.8
114.0
116.1
116.0
115.9
116.6
116.8
116.7
116.5
116.9
116.5
18,898
19,027
19,328
19,673
19,508
19,163
19,761
19,645
19,693
19,821
20,230
20,203
100.8
100.7
100.7
©100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
SI 100. 9
100.8
100.7
454.0
452.9
454.8
457.4
460.1
'13462.1
116.4
117.1
117.8
119.4
120.8
0121.3
20,247
20,350
E]20,365
r20,320
r20,319
P20,309
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.2
100.5
100.7
2
100.7
1961
March
April
May
July
Auffust
October
1962
April
May
July
December
1963
January
April
May
5?i*.8
566".6
[E]e579!6
8575^5
July
September
October
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
Week ended July 16, 1963.
2
Basic Data
26
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by Etn asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [M]; the reverse ia
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5f 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
I960
January. . . * . * . .
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
35! 15
March
April,
May
June *
July,
Augus't
36! 30
35.90
October.
November
35.50
1961
January
Februu ry
March
April
May
June
July
August
September. .....
October
November
33! 85
©33!50
34!?6
35^40
1962
January
35^70
.*•
March
April
May
36! 95
July
August « . . .
Septeinber
October
November
1963
January
February. ......
March
April
May
June
E38J5
* *•
37.95
36! 95
a38.40
63. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output , total
GNP
64. Book value
of manufacturers ' inventories, all
manufacturing
industries
(1957-59»100)
Revised1
97.1
98.6
99.1
99.7
100.3
100.9
100.9
101.4
101.2
101.2
101.7
102.2
(1957-59-100)
Revised1
(Bil. dol.)
(Bll. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
38,971
39,452
39,878
40,377
40,672
41,013
41,299
41,508
41,762
41,898
42 ,032
42,143
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54-0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
21.8
21,8
21,7
21.7
21.5
• 21.5
©21,5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
42,118
42,032
41,986
41,865
©41,856
41,900
41,904
41,959
42,008
42,170
42,439
42,787
55.7
56.2
56.6
56,7
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
57.2
57.3
57.2
57.4
22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22,7
22.8
23.0
43,066
43,338
43,716
U,209
44,648
45,069
45,455
45,813
46,015
46,399
46,980
47,438
57.5
57.7
57.9
r58.1
(H]p58.4
(NA)
23.0
23.0
23.2
r23.2
(H]p23.3
(NO
r47,925
r48,350
r48,739
r49,270
©p49,704
(NA)
101.9
102.1
102.0
100.8
100.4
99.6
99.3
©98.1
98.4
98.5
99.1
98.7
99.4
99.5
99.0
99.9
99.7
100.1
99.7
0101,0
98.9
99.7
99,5
99.9
99,4
100.1
99.0
99.0
98.4
98.5
103*.3
104*. 3
•.*
105 '.2
...
105.2
106.0
.. •
106,0
105*. 8
.•.
©loi!?
105 .*8
106 .*5
107.1
* »•
106.6
••.
...
107.1
[H]el08.'3
July
September
a39*.95
December
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs. 1 in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods,
all manufacturing indus.
62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
*..
5.34
»»»
5.35
4.97
...
4.99
*•.
4!97
...
4!97
4!99
(D4*.96
4! 98
$!6i
4! 99
05.02
...
5^66
5.01
Basic Data
27
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by (H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; »e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA!1, not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month
1960
February
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments ,
total
87. General
imports ,
total
88. Merchandise
trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 82. Fedreceipts(+) eral cash
or payments payments
(-) in U.S. to the
balance of public
payments
83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+)
or deficit (-)
95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product acct.
(IVnn.rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil. dol.)
Revised1
1,246.3
1,561.3
89.9
89.9
+315.0
0.0
1,348.0
+8 \2
1,565.7
96.6
97.8
+217.7
-1.2
-775
1,518.1
+228.3
1,289.8
94.2
91.9
+2.3
*. *
+273.6
1,348.6
1,622.2
99.8
94.9
+4,9
+5^2
1,269.0
1,659.3
102,9
94.4
+8.5
+390.3
-831
*.
1,633.8
94.8
+2.9
+357.3
1,276.5
91.9
1,706.5
+435.8
1,270.7
93.6
91.5
+2.1
-1,018
1,255.8
1,624.8
104.0
97.4
+6.6
+369.0
+i!Z
1,647.2
100.5
+5.5
+426.6
1,220.6
95.0
1,667.6
91.7
92.7
+461.6
1,206.0
-1.0
2
1,680.6
101.4
102.0
+518.9
-0.6
1,161.7
-i!2
-l,257
99.5
1,124.8
1,645.3
96.3
+3.2
+520.5
•• •
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,488
1,397
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1961
March
April
Mav
July
September
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161,4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152,9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,654.8
1,812.1
1,674.4
1,802,6
1,782.1
1,838.3
1,728.9
1,687.3
1,943.3
1,492.8
1,695.2
1,838.9
1,327.4
1,315.4
1,339.3
1,363.8
1,386.4
1,342.4
1,361.8
1,364.2
1,476.4
1,318.9
1,431.7
1,371.9
+$27.4
+496.7
+335.1
+438.8
+395.7
+495.9
+367.1
+323.1
+466.9
+173.9
+263.5
+467.0
982.1
2,130.6
1,990.8
1,918.1
1,900.5
(NO
1,093.2
1,493.2
1,484.3
1,423.3
1,406.2
-111.1
+637.4
+506.5
+494.8
+494.3
(NA)
-472
*31
-655
«..
-1,274
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106,5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8-5.7
-6.2
116.7
106.5
117.0
118.0
116.2
106.7
107.7
109.8
106.9
110.1
113.9
112.2
-9.0
+3.3
-10.1
-7.9
-2.3
+5.5
-6 .'6
-5^4
-4^0
-a!s
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,589
1962
March
April.
tfey
July
August
October
November
-585
•. •
-452
•• •
•. .
-356
•• •
-793
-5^6
-3 '.6
-3\6
-5^3
1,872
1,211
1,254
1,831
1,182
1,325
1,934
1,386
1,037
1,805
1,755
1,022
1963
March
April
Mav
July
(NO
-806
(NO
September
November
1
See
2
"New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
Includes single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
-i.6
(NO
1,732
1,228
1,023
1,275
1,594
(NO
28
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by GO; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; *»p», preliminary; "e"( estimated; "a", anticipated; and »NA", not available.
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
Year and
month
Other U.S. series with business cycle
92. Mili- 85. Percent 98. Percent 93. Free
tary prime change in change in reserves*
contract
total U.S. money supawards to money
ply and
U.S. busi- supply
time deness firms
posits
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Percent)
(Percent) (Mil. dol.)
significance — Continued
81. Index 94. Index 96, Mfrs.1
of conof conunfilled
sumer
struction orders ,
prices
contracts , durable
total
goods invalue
dustries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(19i>7-59= (1957-59=
100)
(Bil.dol.) (Bil. dol.)
100)
1960
3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,999
3,357
4,109
3,583
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-fO.21
-fO.36
40.07
40,07
-0.14
40.28
-0.14
-0.38
-0.10
-0.00
-0.05
-0.05
40.53
40.67
40.38
40.47
40.28
40.52
-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
437
4120
4247
4414
4480
4614
4669
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
111
120
47.56
46.77
46.00
45.32
45.13
44.91
44.67
44.50
44.37
43.60
43.19
42.89
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,476
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0,32
40.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
42.52
42.49
42.51
42.97
43.20
43.31
43.62
43.97
44.03
44.32
44.66
45.21
4,488
3,990
3,914
4,402
May
0 . . . . 4,126
4,019
Julv
5,026
August . * ,
4,623
September t t * 1 1 »
3,968
October,
4,914
November..
4,938
December, , T . , , .
3,783
1963
3,073
2,135
2,225
1,885
1,808
1,808
2,068
2,488
2,242
3,089
3,154
1,758
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14 '
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07 -0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0.68
+0.79
+0,57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
1C4.7
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.4
105.5
105.6
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.8
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.74
45.96
45.86
45.52
45.22
44.90
44.85
44.28
43.73
43.55
43.03
r43.09
4,714
4,050
3,593
4,031
4,682
(NO
2,390
2,674
2,157
1,786
2,165
(NO
+384
r+301
+271
+313
r+248
p+140
106.2
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.4
(HO
121
130
118
125
144
(NO
43.40
44.01
45.43
r46.07
r46.75
P46.34
March
April
May
July
September
December
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July...
. ...
October. .......
November .......
December. ......
1962
January .*.«....
February. .*.*..
February *
April....,,
May
July
August
September
October
+0.54
-0.07
+0.20
+0.34
0.00
p+0.27
+0.98
+0.44
+0.72
+0.52
40.44
p+0.47
.
8,*05
•. *
7.74
7.15
7.07
6*.72
6*. 58
6^68
6*83
7^15 .
7*.06
7*.24
...
7*.76
7^65
(NO
Basic Data
29
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by {JO; "the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a"t anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Internationa i. comparisons of industria 1 production
121. OECD,1
European
countries ,
index of
industrial
production
Year and
month
1960
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
126. Prance,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
111
112
114
113
114
116
118
116
116
117
118
118
109
109
110
112
112
111
111
112
112
112
110
112
109
107
108
105
105
105
104
104
105
105
105
105
112
111
110
110
110
110
109
109
108
107
105
104
113
113
115
115
116
118
118
115
118
120
120
122
107
108
108
110
110
111
112
112
115
114
115
114
lift
122
1 39
117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
103
103
104
107
109
111
112
113
112
114
115
116
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
122
108
110
111
110
113
rll 5
126
115
116
117
12<3
122
123
April
May
July
August
.
December
1961
March
April
May
July
Auffust
October.
November. ......
1962
January
March
April
Jfey
June
July
August
Sept^nib^T* , t T T , ,
November
December. . T . * . .
1963
12A
123
12A
125
12A
12*5
125
127
126
127
127
125
19ft
March
April
May
47. United
States ,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59«
100)
February
October
122, United 123. Canada,
Kingdom,
index of
index of
industrial
industrial production
production
r!26
128
tm\
116
116
127
197
126
129
129
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
-\> q
151
11Q
120
125
131
130
12Q
128
128
133
110
1 1Q
11 Q
1 3O
113
110
120
120
120
133
1 1Q
1 33
1 OQ
1 1o
120
11 Q
1 9ft
128
128
127
1 97
1 57
1
55
J-P5
rl!4
r!22
121
117
160
113
1 93
(MA>
(m }
1 99
*\I*i4
o/
1 95
rl 32
rl 39
1 39
(MA ^
^WAJ
n3
11A
113
11*1
1 17
118
118
119
July
August
November
^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
193
193
194
19ft
125
118
118
rll8
~) 1Q
rllQ
12A
123
12A
123
125
125
126
128
128
126
T9Q
1 31
(MA ^
\IHR.)
1 /Q
1 51
1 53
1 3ft
137
n /n
n/ri
1Z.3
145
148
1 51
151
1 57
158
162
160
166
166
172
175
179
182
183
187
190
191
i on
188
1 Q3
TOO
1 Q5
1A7
1 51
1 Ol
1AQ
150
1Q3
1 53
15ft
IQfl
i An
IQfi
(vt\\
\SHAf
1Q/
1Q9
1
QQ
J-7V
1Q7
fNA ^
^
VWA
Analytical Measures
30
Table 2.--RECENT CHAKGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and riwe when business falls are inverted so that -rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month- to -month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed;! for example, if the rate decreased by 0*6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.
Series
19 32
Avg.
Measure change,
Oct.
Nov.
of
to
change 1948to
19611 Nov.
Dec.
Dec.
to
Jan,
Jan.
to
Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar.
1963
Mar.
to
Apr.
Apr.
to
May
-0.2
+2.4
+5.8
0.0
+1.0
-7.1
-3.6
0.0
May June
to
to
June July2
NBER LEADING .INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing.,
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries...
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all Industries (inverted)
5. Avg, weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted).
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders,
durable goods industries*.
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment industries...
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings..
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
Percent. , 0.5
6.0
..do
..do
3.4
11.9
..do
+0.7
-10.0
-1.1
-5.6
-0.2 +0.2 +0.2
-0.2
0.0 +5.1
-2.8 +11.4
-6.0 +5.5 -2.0 +0.5
0.0 +10.0 +11.1
-5.3
0.0
NA
-7.3
NA
-57.0 +37.4
+3.6
+0.3
+6.6
+6.1
-4.0
+0.3
-0.3 +12.2
-2.0
+4.3
+2.3
+2.3
+2.3
-1.2
-5.1
+4.1
-1.9
+0.2
+2.4
-0.8
+2.9
+2.5
-1.6
+0.1
+1.9
+5.8
+4.5
-17.2
-2.7 +26.6
NA
+1 4
-3.5
+2 4
-2 2
•fA 1
+6 2
NA
-22.3
NA
-16 0
+2 Q
+20 3
+8 0
4.0 n
+4.1
-2.7
-3.8
+0.1
-2.4
+9.3
-2.7
-0.8
-2.1
00
+6.5
+1.3
-2,2
NA
+3.2
NA
-7.8 +18.0
..do
19.4
..do
7.0
+0.7
-6.4
..do
5.6
- -1.4
• •do
6.1
..do
12.4
6 4 +4 2
..do
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations3
..do
11.2 +12.8
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
started
+/ *S
..do. ... / 1
29, Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.... **do
+7.8
3.9
12. Net change in business population,
3
Thous ....
00
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent.. 3.0
-1.5
14. Current liabilities of business
fai lures ( inverted )
16 3 +19 2
..do
15. No. of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over (inv.)..«.
..do
+8.7
17.3
16, Corporate profits after taxes3
..do
7.7
+4.9
17. Price per unit of labor cost index..,. ..do
0.0
0.7
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
+2.5
..do
7.7
22. Ratio, prof its (after taxes) to income3
originating, corporate, all Indus. .. . .do* . . *5.8
+2.2
.
2.6
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
..do
+6.9
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm3 and Ann. rate,
nonfarm, after val. adjustment ^. ,,. bll.dol. 3.1
+0.4
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
4.0
trade inventoires , total^.
..do
-5.7
20. Change in book value of mfrs.1 inven-0.1
1.7
. .do
tories, purchased materials *
37. Purchased materials, percent report+8.9
ing higher inventories
Percent. . 7.3
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
report* commitments 60 days or more.. . .do* .... 6.2
-5.5
32. Vendor performance, percent report0.0
11.3
25. Change in mfrs.1 unfilled orders,
-0.34
durable goods industries^
Bil. dol. 0.46
+1.6
23. Indox of Industrial materials prices.. Percent.. 2.2
-7
*i
+8 6 -69 4 +41 2
+11.9
-0.4
-32.4 +14.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.7
-35.2 +40.4
^-3.9
0.0
+1.3
-^ 7
-3 ft +4 0 -36 3 +26 9
+2.4
+2.4
+0.8
-0.1
-35.0 +29.6
NA
-4.8
+4.3
+2.3
+1.3
+0.4
NA
-0.4
+4.7
+1.1
NA
+2.0
0.0 -2.3
-1.6
+5.0
+0.2
-1.4
+2.8
-1.9
-0.8
NA
+1.6
-'-0.4
-0.1
-0.7
+0,7
-0.6
NA
-2.0
-4.2
+4.3
-4.2
+6.5 +16.3
-1.9
-2.0 +10.0
-1.8
-1.9
-1.9
+9.6
+4.2
+3.8 +11,1
-3.3
»6 9
0.0
+4.0
+0.57 +0.26 +0.30 +0.81
-0.6 -0.3 -0,4 -0.7
-0.78
+0.1
0 0 -*? *>
+0 04 -1 09
+0.7
-1.4 +0.2
NBE;* ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagrlcul..do .... 0.4
-0.1
..do. ... 0.4
4.7
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
5.8
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
5.6
St ate programs ( inverted )
..do
-0.5
-7.9
-2.4
-6.4
00
-0 1
+0 3
+0 4
+0 4
+0 4
+0 3
+0.9
+3.8
-4.1
-0.4
-4.2
-6,7
+0 4 +0 6
-5.5 +8.2
-6.0 +13.4
+0 4
-1.1
+3.7
-0 3
+0 1
+4.2
+7.4
+1.0
-1.0
+3.1
+8.2
+1.7 +10.9 -13.9
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,
See footnotes at end of table.
+6.4
-4.6
0.0
Analytical Measures
31
. Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
19 62
Avg.
Measure change,
of
Oct.
Nov.
change 1948to
19611 to
Nov. Dec.
1963
Dec.
to
Jan.
Jan.
to
Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar.
Mar.
to
Apr.
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June
June
to
July2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
Percent . .3.3
1.2
..do
..do
1.4
..do
1.9
1.6
..do
1.6
..do
0.7
..do
-0 9
+0.3
+1.2
+1.5
+1.5
+0.5
+0.5
-0 7
-0.3
+2.4
+0.1
-1.1
+0.5
+4.0
+0.4
+3 1 -2 0
+0.8 +0.9
+0.8
+1.2
+1.0
-2.9 '+0.5
-0.2
+0.4
..do... . . 1.1
1.6
..do
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
0.3
. . do
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
3.6
..do
and equipment, total3
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
0.7
..do
63.. Index of labor cost per unit of out3
1.0
..do
put total GNP
64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories, all
. . do
0.9
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
1.0
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
1.2
..do
67. Bank rates on short-term business
3.0
.do.
loans 19 cities3
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship3.7
..do
3.5
..do
87. General imports total
Mil. dol. 58.6
88 Merchandise trade balance^
*
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
332
..do
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . .7.2
7.5
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
84 Ffd^ral cash surplus or def i cit . t . .Ann.
. .rate
bil.dol. 5.7
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal
income
3.2
..do
and product account3 *
25.4
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement .Percent . .
15.6
..do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
+0.3
+2.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
+0.2
+0.6
+0.5
+0.6
+0.1
+1.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
47. Index of industrial production
50. Gross national product in 1954 dol.3..
49. Gross national product in cur. dol.3..
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)3.....
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers..
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
-1.0
' -0.2
+1 7
+1.0
-2.1
+0.4
-0.2
+1.2
0.0
+0.4
0.0
-0 3
+0.3
+0.2
+4.9
+0.6
-0.5
-0.5
+0.7
+3.9
-1.1
0.0
+0.5
-0.6
+0.1
+1.1
-0.2
+0.3
+0.2
+0.3
+0.3
+0.3
+0.5
NA
+0.4
+1.3
+0.9
+1.0
0.0
+1.0
0.0
+0.9
+0,9
+0.8
0.0
+1.1
+0.4
+0.9
NA
NA
+0.6
+0.2
-0.4
+13.6 +8.5 -46.6 +116.9 -6.6 -3.7
+8.6 -4.2 -20.3 +36.6 -0.6 -4.1
+89.6 +203.5 -578.1 +748.5 130.9 -11.7
-0.9
-1.2
-0.5
NA
NA
-8.2
-1.5
NA
+9.9
-2.6
+0.9
+3.0
NA
-1.5
+3.5
+12.3 -13.4
+2.2
+5.6
+7.8
NA
+0.7
-0.5
-2.8 -41 is +69 i 5 -29.1 -16.7* +24 ,*6 +25.0
+0.5 -23.4 +24.6 -14.1 -11.3 +12.2 +16.1
NA
Nk
+2.1 -44-3 +35.9 +11.9 -19 3 -17 2 +21 2
NA
-437
-3.3
+1.1
+0.4
0.0
+1.3
-1.2
+5.1
-0.5
-2.8
-13
-8.7
+1.9
0.0
5
-2.6
+0.4
-0 3
+0.8
-4 3
+1.3
+0.9
+1.3
+1.6
-2.2
+0.6
92. Military prime contract awards to
..do
29.2
85. . Change in money supply excluding time
0.22
..do
Mil. dol. 138
Percent. . 0.3
8.3
Index1 of construe, contracts, total... ..do
2.1
..do
Mfrs. unfilled orders, dur. goods...;
3
6.3
Backlog of cap. appropriations mfg. . . .do
Change in money supply including time
..do..... 0,19
94.
96.
97
98.
1
0.00 +0.13 -0.14 -0.61 +0.27 +0.14 -0.34 +0.27
+116
-83
-30
-65 -108
+42
+54 -205
0.0 -0.1 +0.4
0.0 +0.1 -0.1 +0.2
NA
NA
+5.1 +12.2 -12.3
+7.4 -9.2 +5.9 +15.2
-1.2
+0.1 +0.7 +1.4 +3.2
-0.9
+1.4 +1.5
+7.2
NA
-1.4
+0.07 +0.12 -0.05
-0.54 +0.28 -0,20
-0.08 +0.03
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision or new seasonal
2
3
adjustment made new computations feasible.
Percentage changes cover part of this period only.
Quarterly series;
figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNP (series 49)
shown in the Oct.-Nbv. column refers to the change from the 3rd quarter of 1962 to the 4th quarter of 1962.
^Figures
are the raonth-to-mohth (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table 1.
'Anticipated. The percent
change from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter, based on anticipated data is +4.0.
Analytical Measures
32
Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Namber of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Namber of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
May
1960
July
1957
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
12
1
7
1
3
1
4
1
22
**i
2
2
3
4
20
**2
1
1
2
3
1
1
11
1
14
2
1
3
2
1
1
4
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
^S
0
19
16
1
2
1
3
2
1
4
3
2
12
1
23
0
23
0
1
18
0
2
19
21
23
0
23
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
3
1
2
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
1
4
1
2
3 months
1 month •*•
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
1
11
9
2
3
3
11
27
2
*2
3
*i
Jan.
1953
1
5
2
3
4
4
4
4
2
3
3
3
6
11
45
11
27
11
36
11
36
11
27
11
53
6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948
1
Jan.
1957
Nov.
1959
Current expansion
Mar.
1963
Apr.
1963
May
1963
June
1963
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7 months .,
6
1
5 months «.«
4 months »
3 months «
4
2
1 month ,«
2
2
1
Number of series used
.*
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
"i
i
i
*1
2
2
19
16
23
4
23
9
2
^8
6
4
4
4
2
4
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
17
1
1
1
14
13
13
9
"i
1
'i
1
2
2
4
23
17
i
"2
2
6
2
2
5
2
2
23
26
23
22
16
0
2
2
3
"i
2
2
4
11
36
"5
11
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
1
1
2
2
2
5 months
4 months .*.*
4
2
4
2
1 month
Benchmark month
,
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
"i
1
5
2
3
6
5
3
2
3
**6
1
6
11
45
11
55
11
07
11
27
11
55
11
55
i,
45
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
*5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
33
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
percentage
Dl. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs,, mfg. (21 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
Expanding
100
D6. New orders, dur. goods indus. (21 indus.)
[5-mo. interval ]
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting ;.
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval jx!
Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval ]J:&v;
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus.)
[3-mo. interval]
•»"'":. •':•»
D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur
(47 areas)—inverted
[5-mo0 interval 1
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 1961 1962 1963
34
Analytical Measures
CHART 2
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
(July)
(May) (F«b.)
P
Percentage
Expanding
..
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 Indus.)
[1-mo. interval]
D47* Industrial production (24 indus.)
[1-mo. interval]
4v^|".vXv-:-,:
Av™'
.tj*«.»::_
058. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval]
100
50
054. Sales of retail stores (24 types ot stores)
[5-mo, interval ]
100
50
0
1948
1949
1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
35
DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
Actual
Anticipated
Change in total carloadings
D35. Net sales, all mfrs. (800 cos.)
[4-quarter interval]
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs. (400 cos.)
[4-quarter interval]
D48. Carloadings (19 mfrd, commodity groups)*
[4-quarter interval]
"^
TOO
V A ••
50
V/" V
0
D61, New plant and equipment expend. (17-22 indus.)
[1-quarter interval ]
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953 1954
1955
1956
WH
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (April 1963)
D48 (June 1963)
D61 (May 1963)
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
1st Q 1962 - 1st Q 1963
3rd Q 1961 - 3rd Q 1962
4th Q 1962-1 sf. CH°"63
3rd Q 1 962 - 3rd Q 1963
3rd Q 1962- 3rd Q 1963
2nd Q 1 963 - 3rd Q 1963
increase of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
36
Toble 4.-DIFFUSiON INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within Intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-querter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table1 6 Identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
Year and
month
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1 -month
interval
3 -month
interval
D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
Industries (21 industries)
1-month
interval
5 -mo nth
interval1
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 com- b. 15 industries
panies
4-quarter
interval
1-quarter
interval
D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies )
1 -month
interval
1960
21.4
19.0
35.7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1
31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3 '
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3
28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
38.1
52.4
38.1
45.2
16.7
54.8
33.3
23.8
33.3
33.3
28.6
33.3
85.7
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
4^.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1'
54.8
95.2
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
28.6
76.2
61.9
85.7
71.4
76.2
81.0
76.2
81.0
78.6
61.9
57.1
54.8
11.9
78,6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
28.6
33.3
71.4
7.1
71.4
57.1
19.0
61.9
95.2
85.7
76.2
23.8
19.0
•35.7
33.3
42.9
26.2
52.4
71.4
57.1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
33.3
33.3
71.4
54.8
38.1
47.6
47.6
57.1
47.6
52.4
57.1
52.4
66.7
71.4
38.1
76.2
85.7
21.4
88.1
42.9
r35.7
r85.7
P57.1
57.1
57.1
r50.0
r71.4
P73.8
57.1
61.9
57.1
, r57.1
r66.7
p28.6
57.1
66.7
76.2
p6l.9
February
March. , «,
.April. , »
May. . ., .
June* . <
July, . „
August i,
October
November
56.7
*44
•• *
33^3
*40
** •
23 !3
*40
66!7
*48
46
36
40
44
42
44
39
34
34
34
28
30
1961
February
March
April,
toy.
July
September
October
Pefi^mb^T' r . . . - , t
1962
January
February
March. „
April ,
May. . . «
July
August*
46.7
54
53 .*3
*58
70.0
'64
56!?
'52
66.7
*54
26 .'?
*52
80.0
* 48
60.'6
(NA)
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
43
49
50
52
52
48
40
46
45
42
44
43
1963
February
*
March
April . ...
May
June
July
September
October
K'See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page 11.
(NO
46
46
45
46
50
46
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-D1FFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-raonth figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58f which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(80 industries)1
corporations)
1-quarter
interval
1-month
interval
52
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
3-month
interval
D23, Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22nd
(47 areas)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval2
1960
February
April
May
June
July
August
*40
October
November
*47
*45
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
34.0
54.8
10.6
. 47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
59.6
63.8
14.9
11.7
17.0
14.9
26.6
23.4
20.2
21.3
57.4
31.9
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54-9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
57.4
59.6
61.7
66.0
68.1
66.0
61.7
93.6
93.6
68.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9,
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5
61.5
53.8
42.3
' 50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
79.2
62.5
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
' 40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
48.9
22.3
63.8
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
51.9
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
88.0
58.3
66.7
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
3
38.5
50.0
58.3
50.0
53.8
34.6
3
38.5
36.2
87.2
47.9
44.7
48.9
71.3
63.8
44.7
53.2
83.0
\
1961
47
March
April
'60
Jfey
July
*58
September
October
November
*56
1962
January
54
March
April
May
*47
July
'48
September
'56
Nnvftrrfbei"
December
1963
50
April
May
June
July
(NA)
1
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January 1960; on 85 components, February 1960 to November 1960;
on 82 components, December 1960 to February 1963; and on 80 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites, representing
an additional 22 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6C).
2
See
"New
Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
3
July 18, 1963
Analytical Measures
38
Table 4,-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continu.d
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures 'are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
l«quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and P58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r1! indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
Interval
5 -month
interval1
D58. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. Indus*)
1-month
interval
1960
March
April
May
June * . *
July
October
November . ,»
56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
30.0
20.0
11.7
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7
ao.o
70,8
20.8
58.3
39.6
75.0
54.2
39.6
45.8
25.0
33.3
27.1
20,8
75.0
43.8
41.7
68.8
66.7
66.7
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20.8
68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
58.3
77.1
58.3
45.8
62.5
64.6
16.7
43.8
41.7
41.7
45.8
29.2
60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
45.4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7
33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53,3
11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83.3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3
45.8
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100,0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
r4l.7
58.3
43.8
79.2
27.1
43.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8
62.5
41.7
45.8
60.4
50.0
54.2
58.3
87".5
81.3
89.6
77.1
89.6
38.6
41.3
54.6
59.7
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
55.9
39.0
39.0
51.1
33.3
81.7
81.7
90.0
70.0
63.3
48.3
40.0
30.0
48.3
28.3
41.7
60.0
75.0
91.7
88.3
80.0
68.3
55.0
25.0
25.0
16.7
26.7
28.3
r29.2
r83.3
r83.3
r75.0
r83.3
r62.5
r54.2
r58.3
r79.2
r29.2
54.2
r4l.7
r50.0
66.7
r91.7
r83.3
r70.8
79.2
r68.8
r79.2
r41.7
r62.5
r45.8
r58.3
62.5
60.4
62.5
60.4
39.6
20.8
83.3
56.2
50.0
29.2
85.4
52.1
79.2
85.4
70.8
50.0
72.9
66.7
58.3
41.7
97.9
66.7
62.5
62.5
66.8
43.5
61.1
46.7
68.6
4^.6
33.0
30.3
38.5
39.0
43.4
35.9
30.0
63.3
85.0
r75.0
r86.7
p65.0
43.3
56.7
90.0
r86.7
p83.3
66.7
68.8
r72.9
r62.5
r91.7
p77.1
r54.2
r81.3
r83.3
r87.5
p79.2
50.0
54.2
58.3
r39.6
r58.3
P41.7
87.5
41.7
41.7
P41.7
38.6
39.1
50.3
42.3
r73.0
p65.0
1961
March. . . „
April
Mav
„
June *
July
August
1962
March
April
May
July
August. » «
September
October. «
1963
January M . , , t . . .
February
Mferch..
April
Mav
June
July
August
October.
1
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page il.
Analytical Measures
39
Table 5.-D IF FUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervale: M
4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(600 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Year and
month
Actual
Anticipated
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
1-quarter
interval
4-quarter
interval
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D61. New plant and
quipment expenditures
(16 industries)
Anticipated
Actual
, Antici- Change in
total (000)
pated
Actual
Anticipated
1960
61
April
May
:?
*53
•• .
*50
•• •
*70
•. *
*60
*68
*62
J68
'?2
*82
•• •
*72
t
*74
•• •
*83
*82
•• .
*88
•• •
*73
•• •
*• *
82
•• *
*8i
*86
•* •
*80
*76
July
September* * » * » t
*58
*82
•• *
• «•
74
•* .
•. •
51
•* .
50
3i!e
v>
68
?
* •'»
31.6
•• •
21.1
26!3
•* .
68ii
...
78.9
•• .
50.0
. *. •
.• •
42.1
+96
•• .
-103
...
75.0
...
84.4
•* .
7l!9
*. •
71.9
.* •
56!2
7l!9
-279
.* .
-212
34J4
•* *
»••
.• *
43.8
1961
March
May
36! 8
•. •
89!5
68.4
•. *
73!?
*86
*..
87^5
89^5
..•
'?8
*82
63 !a
89.* 5
*88
*76
*84
57^9
94^7
•. •
60
*74
*74
•• .
•• *
70
•* .
(NA)
*• •
89.5
July
October*
•;{|
128
+79
#. .
...
+125
.• •
+62
28.1
.*.
37.5
46!9
...
...
56.2
.•.
53!l
.* *
62!5
...
59*4
...
•..
65.6
65.6
62.5
1962
March. i.
Ifey4 . .
•. •
Jnlv. . /
*72
October
December
(NA)
*
*74
••.
•. •
82
•• •
*71
(NA)
*• •
68.4
*• •
*76
63 \2
'76
78,*9
•• .
-67
...
•. •
-96 .
.* •
*• *
-66
68!8
•• •
esis
65.6
...
65!6
46^9
68.8
40.6
50.0
(NA)
75 !6
+10
1963
*80
March
April
May..
JUly
78!l
Tafaie 6.-DJRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT
A.--(tM) Average Workweek of Product!on Workers, Manufacturing
3-month spans
1-month spans
1963
1962
1962
1963
21 industry components
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries.
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and allied products...
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products.
Petroleum and coal products...
Rubber products
Leather and leather products..
4- « rising; o « unchanged; - * falling.
ift
29 33 71 7 71 57 21 88 43 36 86 57
o - 4- - 4- - - + + _ + o
+
O
O
O
4-
4-
44-
-
4O
4*
4-
-
+
-
4- +
+ O
4- 4+ 4O 4- -
+
+
O
O
O
O
4O
O
4-
-
-
-
4-
0 —
+
O
+ o
+ o
O
4-
o +
-
-
44-
+
-
4444- 4-
4444-
24 19 36 33 43 26 52 57 57 50 71 74
- - O - 4- - + - .+ 4- + +
4-
+
4-
4-
+
-
o
-
4-
4-
O
_
44_
+
O
4.
4+
4-
-
-
O
-
-
-
O
„
-
4- 4- 4- - _
+
- + + - + +
_ . ^ _ 4- 4. + + + + - 4- 4- - + - 4- O - + +
_ + + _ 4- +
- 4- +
4- - _ - - + _ 4-
- 0 0
- 0 4 -
O
O +
+
+
- O
4-
4-
o - -
-
-
-
-
O
4O
O
+
—
4O
O
O
444O
O
44-
4-
o
-
O
-
4-
o
O
O
44O
4-
+ 4- + + +
O 4- 4- +
4- -4-44- 4- 4- +
+
O + + + O
- - + + +
+ + o _ - - 4- + 4-
4- + +
4- + 44- + +
-4-4-
O
o
+
-
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction^of change is determined.
c
*"t
CA
Table 6.-DfRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.»(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
5-month spans
1-month spans
tx
a
i a
8
7
0
1&
Jan-Fel
Aug-Sep
An»
TtiT
Jun-Jul
8
i si i I 1
fi
^
81 33 33 71 55 38 57 62 57 57 67 29
4
4
4
-
4-
4-
4
44
44
+
4-
+
Other electrical equipment*,
Motor vehicles
4
Aircraft
Other transportation eouipment*
Stone, clay, and glass products
-
4-
4
4
-
-
:"
4
4
f
4-
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4-
4-
4
4
4
-
4-
4-
*
4-
Household appliances
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
4-
4O
4
4
4
H
8
a
0
3
0)
"o
,0
<D
7 i i i i i
,0 JH fc >> C rH
0)
ft,
0] CX 0]
S <lj 2
3
*->
3
•->
C
,O
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
fi -P > O C JD ^ FH t>> C rH
t
fn
h
> s C r - l l i a C u - P
O
< a s ? ^ s ) a ) ( u j a f t j a ^ ^
w o a s S ' f c s - S f S ^ ^
52 57 52 67 71 38 76 ?6 57 67 76 62
4-
4-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4_
+
4
4-
+
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
+
4*
-
:;;:;:
+
_
44
4-
4-
44-
4-
t
I
4-
+
+
4-
4-
-
-
4-
-
4-
4-
+
-
4-
- + - + - -
+
4-
+
+
f
f
f
-
44
44-
-
44-
*•
4-
»-
4-
+
-
-
4 = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that, comprise series 24.
1
Includes durable goods industries not available separately.
>
4-
44-
44
!*
8 £
1963
4-
4-
4
44+
4-
4
4-
f _
f
f
f
4
4
1962
1963
1962
21 industry components
s
n>
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.--(D19) index of Stock Prices, 5QO Common Stocks
3-mocth spa us
1-month spans
1962
1963
1962
1963
24 industry components
^
""J
d>
O
T>
<:
to
oo 2:
Q<D
^J
•rs
Percent r is ing2
3
'-a
Z3
<al
tU
£>
CO O
O
2
(<d
<1>
jij
DJ
jfl
^
^J
~3i^2<ISt-3|~3
0)<d
<1)
a]
CL
O ' - s E t , 2 ' < S
cd
1
^(
- a
68 78 35 7 99 85 98 79 4A 91 85 52
+
<3
< U O ^ 4 J
*;coO!2Q
rS
^ fl> O
O
~ > « 3 ! c o O X
$
Z3
0)
5>
O
O
2
^
A
J.
4n
CL
pt
<
1
a]
S
^
"-3
3
*-»
S <t>
«5J CO
Publishing
Chemicals
+
+ + NA NA Ni NA
+ NA. N& NA NA.
- - - - - -
+ +
-
_
-
-
+
+
•f
—
_
+
+
-
+
+
— 4-
+
+ + - + + + + - + + +
-»• +
+ +
•+•
Steel
Mstal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
. _ - _
+
+
+
- - - - + + +
+
+
+ - - + +
-h
•»•
+
-f
+
_
^
+ + + + +
+ + +
O
+ —
_
+
2Qi-3CnS'«3i2|-3»-3i<:co
8 67 31 73 90 99 98 94 91 90 88
+ + - - + - + + + + + +
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing)
S i OAq A
A i ' Z t . ^ S t L , ' !
j j l < t J c l O i a l 3 ^ J f l >
8
+
+
- - - - + +
+
+ + + + +
+
4-
+
+
+
-J-
- - + - - +
Radio and television broadcasters
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
+
_
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4-
+
-
- - + -h
4-
+
-
4-
+
+ +
- - + + + +
rising; o * unchanged; - « falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted. NA. * Not available.
24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index.
2
Based on 82 industries, July 1962 to February 1963, and on 80 industries thereafter.
Table 6.-DIRECT10N OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT»Continue<J
D.--(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
3 -month spans
1-month spains
1962
Percent ris ing
t
g
i
_
4-
—
4-
—
o
-
69
ii
?8
.*
.
*
•
••
Zinc (Ib. )
Q
O
O
~ 2
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib. )
.
...
_
.
_
+
o o
4- 4- O
o
-
^
+
O
4-
<
(U
Q
cd
*->
O)
fe
cd
S
S
58 67 46 54 50 58 38
O
44-
+
—
O
+
_
44-
I
rH
I
0
I
O
O
\
f S
?
ri 1
G
ft
^
fn
> » C r - 4 l U ) O « - P > .
o
<d <i> gi P< jl r* I""1 r* QJ o O o>
" - a f c S - e t i S ^ s ^ ^ w o s a o
1
1 I
1 1 1 1 1 1 I
t
1
- p > 0 CJO ( ^ ^ ^ C ^ b D p ,
O ^ O ^ I x i S < 5 ! S ' ~ 3 | ~ 3 ' ^ ! t O
42 2 3 23 4? 65 79 62 50 58 50 54. 35 38
+
4-
o
O o
0
O
- 4"
~
+
~
4O
— o —
O- O o
o —
+
+
4-
4-
Q
0
O
4-
4-
4-
+ 4 - 4 -
4-
o o o O O O O o
MA NA - NA NA - -
+
o
o —
—
_
4- = rising; o » unchanged; - • falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted. NA = Not available.
*Data for July 18, 1963.
o
3
i
Q
+ 4+ + 4-
o O O 0
NA NA NA -
4-
o o
.
S
+
^
+
ii ii
&H
1963
4+
Steel scrap (ton).
Tin (Ib.)
C i-t
3 0
•-s *-s
t i
Pr
<aj fi 5
& ^
^
Ana-
r-t
o § *S ^
Motr
C
3
* 31 42 50 58
*
Copue r s crap f Ib )
Hides ( Ib . ) . .
Rosin (100 Ib.).
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib. )
c
5 8 I
. A.
3 4 S
<J
*-i
Apr-Jul
i« -P
•-?
19<>2
1963
Sep-Oct
13 industrial materials components
+
+
+
— o
o
o
4"
-
+ + +
n>
en
Analytical Measures
44
oaa-w
AON-unp
+OO-A^
dag-Jdv
Buy—tiB^j
X"np— qsji
unp-uBp
n
i
S3
H
A'BW-OSQ
ady-AQN
CO
CL
O
43
•P
fl
o:
^
i/i
LU
s
S
Q-
i I
s 1
5
4
( + + + 1 1 1 + 1 1
+ i + +
U-N
| + | + | + + +
| 1 + | + | l l | +
I
I
+
I
I
+
+ + + + + , + +
c v i
4 1 1 1 4 1 4 1
oaa-TTtf
0 > |
+ + , ! + ) + +
+ + +
,
,
,
,
,
+
+
1 1 1 1 + 1 1 1 4 1
+ + +
,
,
,
, + + 1
+ + 4 I
i t + i
| 1 + +
+44-*-
i +
|
+
i
i
l
1
1
1
)
I
I
I
!
t i l l
l
1 + 1 4
f-
^oo-JC^w
0 0 1
1 4 - 1 1 1 4 4 1
4 1 4 - 1 4 - 4 1 ( 4 1
das-Jdv
Bny-JBW
tnp-qaj
< M |
1 4 - I 4 I 4 - I I
1 1 1 4 - 4 1 1 1 + 4
+ + 1 1
-^
1
I
l
l
l
l
( + I + + + + +
+ | + |
• H I
CM
I
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
| | | 1 +
I
I
+ + | | +
4 4
| +
1
1 4 4 4
| + i i
+ +
+ |
1
+ | | |
+ + + ( + + + + + +
+ + ) +
+ 1 0 1
4 4 l 4 - l l ) 4 l t
+ 4
4 4 4 4
AO^I-^oo
^oo-deg
B
«
a £
fe
+ ( + +
I
+
+ + + + ( + + +
^ +
1
fe I OSQ-AON
H
S
2:
+ + + + ! + + + ) +
c ^ l
JBW-^OQ
qajf-dss
UBp-Bny
AOM-UTlp
O
g +
?
a
dag-Buy
Sny-Tr.f
tnp-uup
unp-A^BX
^BW-ady
ady-JBW
^H
CO
43
-P
JBH-qai
qaj-UBp
i
H
I
si
uBp-oaa
oaa-AON
H 4
+ + + + + + +I
O j |
+
I
I
I
I
I
4
I
1
CO
\ 0 |
4 4 ) 1 1 +
t o
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
1 1
4
I
1 4 - 4 ) 4 4 1 1 1 1
+ 1 1 1
1
I
1 4 4 4
1 4 1 1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
4
1 4
1
<H o) cd
O -P +»
AON-400
W-das
dag— 2ny
Bny-^np
tnp-unp
CM
S
c>
•sf
m
i
1 ( 4 4 4 + 4 1
4 1 1 + 4 1 1 1 1 4
( 4 | 4
| | 4 4
C ^ 4
4 4 l l 4 | | 4
1 4 4 ( 1 1 + 4 4 1
4 ( 1 1
4 4 4 4
S
UJ
I
c
IJL
O
. i i i i i i :i S i :i i :i !:i i
ii ii
ill:
1
i
o
O >>w w OQ
H O 43
CM
J[U!
[.anal
»^
*H
o-,^^^
^HHH^n
"ags^aasa*
sa&a
^^^s
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.--(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagriculturaf Establishments
1-month spans
3-month spans
1963
1962
1962
1963
30 industry components
a4.
I
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments.
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and vood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction.
Transportation and public utilities.
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal government
State and local government
48 40 30 48 28 42 30 63 85 75 87 65
+ - + + - o
68 55 25 25 17 27 28 43 57 90 87 83
+ + + + + o
- 0 0
44-
44O
4-
44-
-
- 4- 4o o
4_
4-
4-4-4-
- 0 - 1 - 0
- - 0 4
- 4 - 4
O
4- O
44+
44-
O
+
0
- 0
4-
-
- o
4-4-4-
4-
-
- o
- +
- -
4+
4- 4- O
4- 4C +
4 - 4 -
- o
- 4-
-
+
O
O
+
-
-
O
4-
+
4-
-
O
+
+
-
-
-
I
4-
l-l
a
O
+
4-
+
+
O
"*"
+
O
+
+
- 4-
44-
+
4- +
+ +
-4+ +
4- o
4- 44-44- +
O
-
-
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - » falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
O*
o
-
- - - o - -
<n
^
Analytical Measures
46
S
&co
+
+ +
to
+
w*
+
oaa-das
AON-3ny
$ '
^BW-Jdy
•idy-d'EM
j^w-qa^
qa^-'UTSf
g
H
G.»(D47)
c^
CO
s °
UT\f — J^TBH
UBf — oaa
oaa-AON
AON-W
q. OQ -dag
das-3nv
8nv-Tnf
xnp-unp
8
6
rH
+ +
UBf-+OQ
+oo-xnf
das-unf
3ny-A*BW
XTif-vtdv
oaa-AON
AON -V>0
*oo-das
dag-Sny
Srv-inr
Xnf— UTVP
rH
+
+ +
s<v +1
£+
s +
£
+ + + +
+ +
+ i
» + + +
+ i
+ i
+ + i i
+ i + +
i +
+ +
+ +
++
++
+
+
fl0)
Tl
++
+ + i
i
t
+
i
+ + i
+
i
t
i
,g
+
^
+^
e^
g
i +
i
i
i
+
+
i + i
"*"
i +
+
+
+ + + +
+
+ i
i i
+ i
i i
++
i +
i
i + +
+ + i
0^g '
+ + +
+ i
+ i
i + +
+ i
+ +
++
i
i
i
i
+
+
g g
I
+ +
t
t +
+ + +
+
+ + +
+ +
1 + + +
+ + i
+
1
1
1 +
1
FH
<2
O
CO
•H
00
aa 1I
:° H--
5
S
P
d)
4j>
i i +
+
1
0,
,i
t3
0)
<U
H
,0
CD
S
£
d)
*cd
S
*
-p
+ + o
1 +
+ +
1 +
+ + +
1 1
+
I
I
+
+ + +
+ +
+ +
<
+
+ i +
+
+ +
1 +
t
S
5
o
+ 1 + 1
$ A
•°
+ + i
g
!>a
1 S
0}
CO
OJ
SP S
•
»H
-P W
3ra fQ3«d)
•H
£
s
3
p
+
i +
+ + + + i +g
+
+
+ +
t + + i
+ f!l§g +
+
i
+ +g
+ + i
++
g+
+
i +
•i^si '
++ i
C C
«H O
>>
^
*c3
gg
++
•
+
+ g
+ + +
t
i i
+ + r +
0.
(US
•p o
tdo
« a&
3
4) -P
'3•a "§
S3
>>
I
s ++
+ +
^L
'
S
+
i i
+ +
1
1
£
O
I +
1
g:
+
+ 0
00
O
+ i
+ 0 1 +
'
+ +
+ +
-4IT*
+
1
+ 1 + +
+ t
'
0
<N *H
rH
1 1 1 +
+ + + i
+ + + i
ON
i+
+
+ +
+
+
i
+
i
+
+
i
+
i
i
i
+
i
+
+ + i
0
I I
1 + 1
1 + 1
1 + +
++ 1
+ 1 1
++i
+ i
t i
i
i
+
i
+
+
i
+
+
r
o + +
+ i
i i + i
1 1 1
+ +
+ + + i
1 1 +
1 1
+ t
+ + o
i +
+ + i +
+ 1+
o t
+ i i +
+ 1 +
+ +
0 + I i
i »
0) -^
g
£«,
§
5a
0
FH
cd
«S
td ,0
P
O
Pi
&
0
t/)
0
-H
CO CO
MI *H
2 t*
C -p
DO C
(U
>> 0
h
£ S
3 .o
S .g'S
co
«a>
83
JU
> o
3s-
A
^ Q)
. 3e
v »
•H
O
omponents
:
£
1
S
3
H
O
O
•H
•P
p tr
Q H
Q «
O -P
2
W
E
:^3
• o o •Pf-*
£.g&
oo
1
1 ? ft
&
11? £
O
« -p
•
• C *O •
• 0) (U •
-P S S 8 1
: :it| •'
w
""g^
• 81
y
:
a ^
9 "
§1
-p • ra
a • o
<M
1
;
*!H 1 1 5 3 1
S
k* T3
atC top
a o,
<(£, fi a
6
S w
• i«
o€
;s
: : : y :• •:«3 gt
: : S"H co • fc q>
cd t u
•
^p >HSP
drt
Textile mill prc
Apparel products
Leather and proc
R
8
+ + + + i +g
+ + ++ + +
i +'+ + + +
N(
H
+ +
Furniture and f]
Miscellaneous..
3
+
Primary metal p]
Fabricated meta]
Machinery and re If
Machinery, excei
Electrical mach
Transportation «
Instruments and
Clav. class, and 1
cA
gs
I
g
1
!
-P
Primarv and fabrif
&
unr-JtW
A3W-qa.il
adv-UBf
a^j-oaa
qa^-AON
Ja 1
-
Percent rising
CO
H
&
•P
All industrial
W
oaa-das
AON-3ny
100-TO
dag-unr
Sny-toW
xnf-adv
g
••»
»H (U
bp
Kn 3
1, $
g
S
*«?
-p
(H O
-pnj 13
a)
ft
o
13 f- £> ^
W g S 4
c W) aj
o p
o H q>
P^ H
'cri P -P O
§H<M^
H 'S °5
3 Oa 3
§<
O -H
OJ
•* E>
W) (d
0
•H -p
W 0
•H 35
*H
-P
0
Q)
f4
-H
T3
&
O
0
p
+5
«:il
+^
asHH 3
§
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.--(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
1-raonth spans
5-month spans
1963
1962
1963
1962
24 retail store components
Percent rising...
Grocery stores
Other food stores....
Eating places
Department stores
Mail-order stores....
Variety stores
Other general stores.
Men's wear stores....
1
Women s apparel stores
Family apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture stores
Appliance and radio stores.
Building material dealers,.
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Drug and proprietary stores...
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable goods stores....
Other,nondurable goods stores.
+ - rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
mined.
73 67 58 42 98 67
83 56 50 29 85 52 50 54 58 40 58
All retail sales.
+ +
+ + _
+. 4 +
+ +
+
+
+
4
O
+
+
+
-
+
O
4-
4
4
+
4
-
4-
4
4
+
4
4
4
-
+
-
+
O
+
4
4
4
_
4-
4-
-
o
4
4-
- + 0
O - + +
+ + + -
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
-
4
4
+
4
-
-
+
-
+
+
-
- 0
62 62 88 42 42 42
+ 4
+ +
4-
+
4
+
+
+
_
+
+
4-
-
-
4
+
4-
4-
-
-
O +
+
-
+
+
4-
+
-
-
_
+
-
+
+
- -
-
o
+
-
+
+
4-
4-
-
o
D
^
+
_
-
-
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
4
0
4
4
_
- + o
o o
+
-
o
+
+
+
-J-
+ +
4
+
O + -
+
4
+
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
4
o
-
- .-
-
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
before the direction of change
is deter-
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov.
> July
July
> May
Ind.x
I I I I | I I I I i | I I I I I I I I I M j II T i l
1948 * Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 * Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
I960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I I I1
II
l I I M I I M I I |TTI I 1 I f ITTTT I IITTJ
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comrn. and Indus
-<- Reference trough dates
105
Index
-<- Reference trough dates
bldgs. 2
1, Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
100*
MOO
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg. |
permits
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mack and equip. Indus.
801-
J 90
I M I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown In table 7.
2
Forthe 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
^Bi^^^^^a^^BBB^nBB^^B^m^BmfBmB^mmmmmB^^^^m^^HmmBBmB^^Bi^mBm^mm^^Bmmmmf^^^mtmm^B^^^^mmm^^^m^^fm^^^^mmmii^^^^^
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I HII
- Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
!IM I
II IIM I I
Index
-<- Reference trough dates
M I l II I I II I1 I I IIIH I I M I I I IM
-<- Reference trough dates
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
23. Industrial materials
prices
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
80
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1* or "2*, the figure for the reference peak Is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at N100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
50
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
1 Ml
Nov. 1948 . Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
*••« July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957. Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
II II I
|I
Index
Reference trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]
Index
105 r
41* Employees fn nonagrl
establishments
*100
55* Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-12
-
6
0 + 6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2*, the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months ontered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers ore shown in appendix C.
Si5« table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month ana the comparable months of previous expansions ore
i
shown in table 7*
Cyclical Patterns
51
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Index
' Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
. July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 • Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 • present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
6- Reference trough dates
120 p
51. Bank debits outside NYC
47. Industrial production
100*
I II I I I I I I I 1 I I M I 1 I I 1 i II I I I t I I 1
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
M nl. . i n l i M i i l i . i i . l M . i l
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-.Con.
Percent of reference peolc levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle*
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 * Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 * Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
' May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
100*
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
67. Bank rate ft, short-term
business loans
64. Mfr$.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
-
6
0 + 6
+12
+18 +24
Months from reference troughs
-6
0 + 6 + 1 2
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1* or "2", the figure for the reference peak Is
set at "100", For series with on MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
$««* table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions ore
shown in table 7.
2
Last two quarters anticipated.
53
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
1 I 1 I I I I I 1 1 1 1 I T I I I I I I T 1 I I I I I T t| I M M I I 1
I|| I
Index
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of-*
----
- 1949
• 1954
-<-Specific trough dates
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus,
bldgs. 3
1958
- 1961
I f i l l M i l I I II I | M i l II III! I
•^-Specific trough dotes
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg
-1120
100*
24. Mfrs/ new orders,
mach. and equip, indus.
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
}
ll
160
150
140
130
120
s
i'W
J
110
100*
MOO
HI
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
ill mi ill ii nl ii M ilimili inilnml
+6+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from specific troughs
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough i* set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter Is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
*See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the tow (L) shown in table 1. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3- term moving average is shown.
54
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions, Period begins
with the specific trough date 1 of each series for each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
-Specific trough dotes
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actualty begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of1949
1954
Index
I III I j l l l l Ml I I I III I II II Ml I II [II I III Ml II
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
-^-Specific trough dates
160
150
120
1958
1961
115
13. New business Incorporations
/^ A
/ V'VLA
140
no
130
105
120
110
100*
23. Industrial materials
prices
200
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
180
160
140
120
MOO
111
ILL
+6
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
Ml
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series wfth a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is sef at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
*See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
55
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
I I I I I I I I I I I I ( I 1 I I I M I I I I I I I 1 M I I 1I I 1 f I I | | I
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dotes to 42 months later, Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
-1954
Index
-^-Specific trough dates
1958
^1961
1 1 1 1 1 i MI in ii 11 t i n UN ii u in i in M 11
•<-Specific trough dates
41. Employees in nonagri,
establishments
- no
MOO
100
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+6
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of T or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C,
2
^ee appendix B for specific dotes.
See table 1 for latest month in current period; Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dotes to 42 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dotes each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
iii
i
r
i
•<-Specific trough dotes
i
i
r '
1958
1961
[irrjiMMiiTiimirrr IMM HIM
Index
-Specific trough dates
140 r-
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
GNP in current dollars
130 -
120
110
100
53. Labor income in mining,
mfg., and construction
UOr
140
130
52. Personal income
120
110
MOO
100*
minium
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
LLI
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Speci'?lc trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter Is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are ba$ed on the low (L) shown in table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 4-1, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62,
64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month
is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter.
See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
lYbnths
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
after
beginning in—
referNov. Mar. June
ence
July
Oct. Aug. Apr, Feb.
July
1924
1933
1938
1927
trough1 1921
1949
1954
1958
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
goods industries . . ,
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started,.
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
16 . Corporate prof its after taxes (Q)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
28
27
27
NA
48.3
17.5
96.6
39.3
49.2
93.4
55.9
42.7
73.6
40.2
39.4
97.0
128.0
96.8
102.3
113.3
122.2
99.8
84.2
82.4
99.2
98.2
73.1
101.5
102.6
143.8
28
28
151.2
178.1
115.2
125.4
65.7
41.4
47.7
37.8
176.2
179.5
146.7
137.8
130.7
98.2
109.7
115.7
27
35.2
111.2
79.4
21.0
121.3
99.0
118.5
110.2
121.6
27
28
24
28
28
28
69.7
15.7
76.0
NA
93.7
58.7
98.7
133.6
101.9
NA
152.1
82.2
101.7
65.2
105.7
NA
183.9
84.8
66.2
221.3
20.6
NA
35.4
169.7
82.2
109.9
115.1
NA
66.0
91.9
97.7
134.3
91.6
99.7
155.3
101.6
130.6
72.7
114.3
101.2
191.2
116.7
135.6
51.4
100.0
99.8
116.5
98.4
102.5
101.3
112.4
101.6
127.0
90.2
28
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
160.3
146.1
115.5
118.8
28
NA.
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
99.3
125.9
28
28
28
27
27
28
28
28
88.0
NA
m
93.7
NA
109.7
96.1
NA
106.1
116.1
115.8
116.6
110.7
107.8
95.8
NA
100.0
107.4
110.2
109.3
106.4
100.0
83.4
NA
73.8
66.2
81.6
•56.0
68.8
75.7
104.1
91.6
109.2
108.9
NA
107.1
107.4
109.7
107.5
117.7
120.9
128.2
117.6
131.4
124.7
117.8
104.8
61.7
108.8
116.6
103.7
125.7
117.9
115.2
102.5
73.7
106.4
112.3
107.1
120.0
113.6
107.4
103.6
91.5
113.8
114.9
110.7
121.4
114.9
109.3
28
64.5
92.3
89.1
85.1
95.5
108.1
108.0
101.7
99.5
24
30
60.2 103.4 119.1
87.0
54-9 100.9
44.0
37.2
92.4
131.5
119.3 127.7
119-4 131.3
96.2
94.0
101.8
110.1
28
27
27
84-4
93.0
NA
NA
85.0
74.4
71.6
100.0
105.9
131.3
109.7
137.2
174.6
106.2
114.7
142.1
102.2
101.5
126.6
98.2
106.2
122.4
27
90.9
60.6
95.5
130.7
117.4
102.9
93.6
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
117.3 122.2
29. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
43 . Unemployment rate total ( inverted )..
49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
NA
104.5
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
NA.
NA
92.8
90.9
NA
NA
111.9
NA Not available,
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 24 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 30 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 3d quarter 1963).
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For eerte« with
64, and 66),
(seriea 2, 3,
month is used
quarter. See
a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62,
the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of "3" or more
6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
also MOD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
tonths
beginning in—
after
referOct.
July July
Nov.
Mar.
June
Aug.
Apr.
ence
1933
1938
1949
1954
1924
1958
trough1 1921
1927
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
!• Average workweek of production workers,
28
27
27
+6.6
NA
NA
+5.7
+82.9
+58.7
-0.8 +11.2
-4,8
+3.0 +2.3
+2,6
+3.6
-23.5 -1.0 +42.2 +27.6 +16.0
+5.9 -4.9
-39,8 +24.2 +95.2 +82.2 +27.5 +20.5 +68.8
28
28
+1U.1
+81.9
+2.9
+35.2
-34.2 U48.3 +193.2 +58.7 +40.6 +28.1 +25.6
-60.2 KL50.3 +91.1
-4.3 -17.8 +2a.4 +36.2
27
+29.1
+60.2
27
28
24
28
28
28
-3.7
-7.1
NA
NA
+26.6
+40.1
-2.0 -16.5
+33.3
-4.5
+48.3 -29.2 KL68.1 +49.2
NA +•281.2
+89.3 +43.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
+46.1 +40.3 +70.9 +5.1
-2.0 -13.0 +72.4 +37.1
28
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
28
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-22.7
-2.3
+29.9
28
28
28
27
27
28
28
28
+27.7
NA
+53.3
+24.0
+24.1
+20.9
+31.3
+U.6
+10.7
NA
+30.0
+18.8
+16.1
+20.3
+11.2
+9.9
-3.2
NA
+8.2
+7.0
+7.7
+0.6
+3.9
0.0
+21.9
+43.1
+55.2
+31.3
+13.3
+46.8
+39.8
+33-9
+16.2
+63.1
+61.4
+23.7
NA
+28.2
+20.6
+32.6
+13.2
H40.2
+32.1
+32.7
+19.3
+36.9
+30.3
+18.2
+8.5
+39.7
+19.7
+18.8
+12.0
+23.7
+18.2
+16.1
+6.9
+30.7
+23.8
+15.2
+11.4
+23.9
+13.9
+1,1.1
+5.7
+24.2
+21.0
+15.7
+12.8
+18.6
+H.O
+13.5
28
+2.3
+1.0
+0.9 +13.8
+8.9
+2.2
-0.4
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9, Cons true t ion contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ...
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24,
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Indfx of industrial materials prices
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machln-
29. Index of new private housing units author -
-8.5
+75.2 +145.8 +14. 7 +22.3 +40.2 +30.5
+10.6
-23.7
+34.1
+3.0
+51.1
+16.7
+42.0 +10.2
+3.6
-31.7
+32.2 +32.3
+5.5
+3.5
+33.5 +12,8
+13.2
-5,4
+32.2 +53.1
+37.8 +23.7
-6.5
+H.5
+17.1
+1.0
+49.5
+35.3
NBER ROUGHLY 'COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
*
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bftnk debits outside NYC 343 centers
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
-4.2 +17.0
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q): 3
b
62* Index of labor cost per unit of output,
67. Hank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q).
24
30
28
27
27
27
+75.3 +48.2 +35.6 +117.1 +54.8 +49.1 +33.6 +19.7 +9.2
-1.0 H56.4 +120.3 +49.2 +37.4 +17.1 +18.0
+59.9 +44.6
-6.2
NA
NA
-15.7
-9.6
NA
NA
-3.6 +H.1 +4.0
-7.7 +15.9
-3.8
»3.5
NA +25.5 +11.8 +50.0 +21.7
+6.6
+9.0
NA +49.7 +40.8 +40.7 +37.5 +25.5 +18.8
+5.8 +16.3
-22.2
-2.2 +30.2 +23.0 +19.2
+0.8
NA, Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 24 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 30 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 3d quarter 1963).
Cyclical Patterns
59
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53).
the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9,
13, 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 "and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote, to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
specific
trough1
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
30
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
95.0
86.4
73.2
92.7
NSC
98.5
96.3
100.0
89.4
59.9
101.6
97.1
NA
128.4
75.1
96.4
108.1
NA
NSC
46.2
17.0
67.4
NA
28.7
171.9
109.0
50.4
NA
58.1
88.3
45.6
58.7
97.5
U1.2
103.2
NSC
NSC
89.9
177.8
61.8
96.0
126.7
97.4
115.8
87.5
32
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
161.8
93.8
95.4
118.1
30
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
64.5
98.1
28
25
29
27
27
30
28
29
88.0
NA
106.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
99.0
96.0
NA
106.1
NSC
NSC
108.2
NA
NSC
93.2
NA
100.0
NSC
NSC
110.8
NA
NSC
83.4
NA
67.2
66.2
79.6
70.6
59.6
75.7
103.6
77.0
109.2
103.7
NA
107.2
105.4
109.0
107.4
101.1
119.3
125.5
116.5
123.9
129.4
NSC
104.8
66.2
107.8
114.2
107.2
116.3
115.7
111.8
102.4
68.4
105.2
112.4
107.6
113.3
107.1
107.4
24
28
28
32
30
41.8
78.2
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
NA
NA
3
124.4
95.5
98.8
117.4
88.7
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
49, Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
103.4
87.6
112.0
114.9
110.7
3
114-0
111.5
109.8
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
30
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
17. Price per unit of labor cost index....
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
+13.1
+4.8
-9.8
-1.9
+10.8
+3.9
+61.9 +24.9 +75.8 KL40.0 +46.5
-0.8
+8.1 -36.8
+29.9 +17.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
+4.9
NSC +88.3
+50.8
+70.0
+6.5
+1.9 -35.3 +79.4 +42.7 +53.1
+2.8
+2.3
NSC
NSC'
+6.2
+40.4
+39.2
+5.5
aoo.o +40.1
+18.4 +10,5
24
28
28
32
30
+102.3
+12.1
NA
+31.8
+47.1
32
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA KL15.0 +57.1
30
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-1.6
+27.7 +10.7
NA
NA
NA
+8.2
+56.7 +30.0
NSC
NA
NSC
NSC
NA
NSC
+31.6 +12.3 +13.7
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
+12.5
+21.9
+41.1
+46.4
+31.3
+18.2
+43-5
+67.6
+33.9
+5.7
3
+33.8
+11.7
+3.5
+30.5
-3.0
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
+28.7
+26.8
29, Index of new private housing units authorNA
NA
+4.4
+31.4
+13.2
KL15.6
+32.4
+30.2
+19.3
+30.6
+48.1
NSC
+8.5
+55.7
+19.8
+17.3
+11.3
+17.7
+25.3
+15.6
+6.9
+31.8
+22.8
+16.4
+12.5
+14.6
+16.3
+12.2
+5.7
+25.6
+21.1
+15.7
+12.8
3
+14.6
+17.4
+14.0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
28
25
29
27
27
30
28
29
+16.2
+40.4
+65.1
+23.7
MA
+2^.7
+44.1
+32.7
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based on period from most recent specific trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The number is the same for each expansion. Specific trough and peak dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 1 and the high
preceding that low.
Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
30
22
46
Iff
34
36
XXX
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
48
30
99
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907..
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
46
43
35
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
14
13
43
13
1
11
27
21
50
80
37
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
H9
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
-.
ft
22
8
S
54
3
46
6
41
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions,
1
4
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
S
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Sources National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated an the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
tor.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers manufacturing
Dec. '60
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13-. Number of new business ineorpoJan . r 61
17. Prieei per unit of labor cost index. Feb.* 61
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Dee. '60
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Oct. '60
29. Index of new private housing unite
authorized by loeal bldg. permits. Dec. '60
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jul.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.'24 Feb. '21
Jun. ' 58 NSC
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct . ' 32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar.'ai
Feb . ' 49Sep. '39
NSC
Dec. '53 May '49 NA
Sep. '53 Jun. '49 Apr. '38
Feb . ' 54Jun. '49 Jun. '38
Dee. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul.'32
Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun. '24
NA
Oet. '23
Jun. '24
Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul.'Sl
Feb. '58 Jan. '54 Apr. '49 M
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb. '58 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Apr. '58
Jul.'58
Apr. '58
lstQ'58
latQ'58
Feb. '58
Oct. '49 Jun. '38
Oct. '49 Jun. '38
Oct . ' 49May '38
2ndQ'49 2ndQ'38
2nd Q1 49 lstQ'38
Oct. '49 toy '38
tor. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
letQ'33'
3rd Q' 32
tor. '.33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
Jul.'24 Jul.'21
NA
NA
Jul.'24 Apr. '21
NSC
4thQ'21
NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49 • GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50, GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
54. Sales of retail stores
Feb. '61
May '61
Jan. '61
IstQ' 61
latQ'6l
NSC
Aug. '54
Sep. '54
Apr. '54
2nd Q' 54
2ndQ'54
Mar. '54
two
me
NA
4thQ'26 2nd Q' 24 2nd^'21
Feb. '61 Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 NA
toy '38 Mar. '33 NSC
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
NA
me
NA
Mar. '22
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —•
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
May
1937
Nov.
1948
Aug.
1929
Oet.
1926
toy
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
my '59 Nov. '55 Apr. '53 NSC
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business ^corpora t ions
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....
24. Va'jae of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Nuoiiber of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49. GKP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufac54. Series of retail stores
NA not available.
NSC
Mar. '56 NSC
Apr. '59
May '59
Jul.'59
Nov. '59
Feb. '56
Dec. '55
Jul.'56
Dee. '55
Dee. '36 Out. '29 Nov. '25
tor . ' 46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29
Nov. '22
NA
Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Doe. '19
Jan. '29 Oet. '25
NA
NA
Sep. '29 NSC
tor. '29 Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
tor. '23
Mfir.'gJ
Dee. '19
NA
Jul.'19
Apr.1 20
Dec. '59 Nov. '56 Feb. '51 Apr. '48 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Nov. '58 Feb. '55 NA
NA
HA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Apr . ' 60tor. '57
Feb. '60 Mar. '57
Jan. '60 Feb. '57
2nd Q' 60 3rdQ'57
2ndQ' 60 3rd Q' 57
Aug. '57
NSC
Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ' 48
4thQ'4H
Oct. '48
Jul,'37
Jul.'37
toy '37
3rd Q1 37
3rdQ'37
Jun. '37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
3rd Q1 29
Aug. '29
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Jul.'g3 Jan. '20
NA
NA
toy '23 Feb. '20
NA
NSC
NA
NSC
lstQ'24 NA
Dee. '36
NA
Feb. '37
tor. '37
Jul.'46
NSC
Feb. '51 Jan. '48
Jan. '53 Jun, '48
Feb . ' 51Jan. '48
May '53
Jun. '53
Jul.'53
2nd Q' 53
2nd Q' 53
Oct. '53
May '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
Apr. '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 NSC
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
NA
NSC
NA
jui.'ao
Appendixes
63
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designations.
Therefore, when appendixes are dropped from an issue, the continuity
is interrupted.
"Appendix C .—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures
for Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series", not included in this
issue, appeared in the June 1963 issue.
Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(NOVEMBER 1962 TO DECEMBER 1963)
1S 62
IS>63
Series
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
83.4 102.6 121.0 116.2
97.5
82.2
92.2
83.8
99.9
140.7
Nov.
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
13. No. of new business incorp.1
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures.
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over...
Dec.
Jan.
82.7
104.8 132.5 140.7 109.1 97.3
94.3
94.3 120.0 91.0 104.2 106.8 106.7
86.8
99.9
89.9 105.1 105.2 107.5 112,3 96.7
96.0
.88*6 111.3
113.6 116.8 110.4
17. Price per unit of labor cost
index
101.1 98.1 98.6 100.6 100 . 9 100.5
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
2
of sales, all mfg. corp.
97.9
98.8
99,8
82.0
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus... 94.7
90.2
82J3 77.4
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
98.8 109.0 108.5 110.6 109.4
96.2
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
99.9 100.0 100.2 100 . 1100.1 100.2
farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
99.8
99.5
98.8 101.7 101.9 99.7
output, total manufacturing
100.1 100.0
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 104.8 98.3
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 102.3 105.1
90. Defense Department obligations —
96.0 117.4
91. Defense Dept. oblig. total
90.7 105.0
92. Military prime contract awards
72.9 108.5
to U.S. business firms
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99.6 103.2
99.8
90.8
70.0
99.9
99.9
98.9 92.3
113.1 129.6
91,6 132 . 2 81.2
90.0 117.7 96.4
89.5
79,7
94.3
105.5
100.0 101.0
85.5
103.0
103.5 93.8
84.7 111.7
89.3
95.9
95.4
99.3
93.2
100 . 3 109.1 99.4
Nov.
89.7
81*9 102.7
88.4
77.7
90.9 105.0
88.3 101.4 82.5
92.8
97.4 100.2
89.6
88.7
96.0
101.8 103.4 101.2
106.1
97.4
109.0 110.9 103.3 116.7 120.6 113.2
132.5
94.3
89.3
88.5
98.1
98.8
95.0
siis
102.1
96.1
93.9
91.6
91.9
92.5
96.1
98.9
100.0
99.9
99.9
99.8
99.9
99.8
99.9
100.0
100.0
98.9
98.2
96.5
98.8
101.7
104.7 100,4
100.0 99.8
99.9 100,0
98.9 103.2 106.0 95.6
79.0 119.3 149.5 49.0
76.9
90.6
125.3
94.9
82.6
96.8
96.4
Dec.
Sept, Oct.
99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0
98.3
114.4 93.8 102.8 105.2
46.0 102.8 105.1
113.3 124.4
77.9
96.7
78.1
86.7
97.1
97.2
89.2
95.4
96.0
90.7
117.4
105.0
92.8 216.4
68.0
72.9
92.7
90.4
72.9
108.5
100.2 100.4
98.8
96.5
98.6
99.8
99,6
103.2
69.2
84.7
192.7
148.2
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
^•Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are place'd in middle month of quarter.
Appendixes
64
Appendix E.-SUMMARY DESCRIPTION OF X-9 AND X-10 VERSIONS OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM
Introduction
Two versions of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program have been used to compute the new seasonal
factors shown in appendix D. These versions, designated
X-9 and X-10 (Experimental Programs 9 and 10), replaced,
in February 1962, the method described in "Electronic Computers ard Business Indicators," NBER Occasional ffeper No.
57, and the X-3 version described in "Tests and Revisions
of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments,"
Census Technical Paper No. 5. (The X-3 program had been
used fox1 about 2 years as the standard program prior to
February 1962.) The X-9 program incorporates several
changes from the original method and is recommended for
general use for a wide range of series. The X-10 program
incorporates the changes in X-9 plus a major departure
from earlier versions of Method II. This major change in
X-10 is the selection of the seasonal factor curve for
each month on the basis of an estimate of the size of the
irregular component for that month relative to the amount
of moving seasonal!ty present in an estimate of the seasonal factor. The selection of curves available for each
month includes a 3-, 3x3-t 3x9-, and 3xl5-term moving average and a horizontal straight line. This is in contrast
to the original and X-9 methods of treating ,all months the
same, either with the use of a 3x3 or 3x5 moving average.
Thesis programs are available for several different
electronic computers. Detailed specifications and additional information can be obtained by writing to the Office
of the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census,
Washington 25, D.C.
Description of the X-9 Program
The changes from the original program included in X-9
are listed below:
(1) In the original version of Method II described
in Occasional Paper No. 57 and X-3, "the six missing
SI ratios at the beginning of the series are supplied
by extending the first available ratios for the corresponding months back to the initial month of the
series. The six missing ratios at the end are supplied
similarly" (Occasional Paper No. 57, step 6d). In the
new programs the missing values are not supplied until
after the seasonal factors have been computed. They
are then supplied by extending (i.e., repeating) the
first available seasonal factor back to the initial
month and similarly for the last available factor at
the end of the series. The effect of this change is
to reduce the weight given the end SI ratios in the
computation of the preliminary seasonal factors.
(2) Extremes are replaced by averaging the two preceding and two following ratios, instead of averaging
the extreme with the preceding and following values.
This revision completely eliminates SI ratios defined
as extreme from the computations of the seasonal factors (included in X-3).
(3) The 5-term moving average, used in computing
the ttigma control limits, is extended by repeating the
last moving-average value instead of repeating the
average of the last two ratios and taking the moving
average. This revision improves the prospects that
extreme values at the end of series will be identified
as »uch.
(4) The method of centering or forcing the seasonal
factors to add to 1200 for the calendar year has been
replaced with a moving centering device which makes
the seasonal factors add as closely as possible to
1200 for any 12-month period. The centering is done
aftsr the computation of a 3- or 5-term moving average
for each month. Following the centering, a 3-term
moving average is applied to each month. In the original version and X-3, the ratios were centered before
moving averages were computed for each month.
(5) Less weight is given to the ratios for end
years in the computation of the seasonal^. To extend
the 3x5 moving average, the end four ratios instead of
the end two are averaged to obtain additional SI ratios (included in X-3). To extend the 3x3 moving average, the end three ratios, instead of the end two,
are averaged to obtain additional SI ratios.
Description of the X-1Q Program
The X-10 program includes the first four changes listed
above for the X-9. In addition, for each month, the curve
to measure the seasonal factor is selected on the basis of
an estimate of the size of the irregular component relative to the amount of change in the seasonal factor. This
estimate of the relative amount of irregular to changing
seasonal!ty is designated the moving seasonality ratio.
Moving seasonality ratios are calculated as follows:
First, a 7-term moving average of the SI ratios is computed
for each month and taken as an estimate of the seasonal
factorj this 7-term moving average is divided into the SI
ratios and the resultant series is taken as an estimate of
the irregular series. Next, the average year-to-year percent change without regard to sign is computed in the 7~
term moving average and in the irregular series. Then, the
average change in the estimate of the irregular to the
average change in the estimate of the seasonal is ealcu• lated. This is the moving seasonality ratio. A moving
average is then chosen for each month on the basis of this
ratio as is shown in the table below. In constructing this
table, the parameters have been chosen to select a curve
which reduces the year-to-year percentage change in the
residual irregular remaining in the estimate of the seasonal to about one-half the year-to-year percentage change
in the seasonal.1
Moving seasonality ratio
Average of SI ratios for
seasonal factor curve
0 to 1.49
1.50 bo 2.49
2.50 bo 4.49
4.50 to 6.49
6.50 to 8.49
8,50 and over
3-term moving average
3x3-term moving average
3x5-term moving average
3x9-term moving average
3x1 5-term moving average
All ratios (stable) .
In the actual computations, the moving seasonality
ratio selects from 1-, 3-, 5-> 9-» 15-term moving average
and an average of all the ratios. After a selection is
made and the appropriate moving average is calculated, a
moving centering device is employed to make each 12-month
period add as close to 1200 as possible. Finally, further
smoothing of the data for each month is carried out by a
3-term moving average.
It has been possible thus far to conduct only a limited
amount of testing of the X-10 program and for this reason
especially careful review of such adjustments is required.
In some cases the original Method II or other approaches
will give similar or perhaps better results. The Bureau
•of the Census is continuing research intended to improve
seasonal adjustment techniques and will provide new variants of the general method as is warranted from the evidence. The results of our experimental work will be reported in detail as soon as feasible.
1
The variable seasons! factor technique was developed
by Dr. Stephen N*. Marris, Head of the Statistics Division
of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Developmen t> and is described in Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic
Computers, pp. 257-309 (OECD, Paris, 1961, Copies can be
obtained from the regional office: Organisation for European Economic Cooperation, 1346 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.,
Washington, D.C., price $9-50.) The Bureau of the Census
and the OECD have cooperated in further theoretical and
empirical development of this technique since completion
of the OECD paper, and the X-10 program differs slightly
from that in bhe original description.
Appendixes
65
Appendix F.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan. 1920 July 1921
May 1923- July 1924
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933
May 1937- June 1938
Feb. 1945-Oct. 19454
Nov 1948-Oct. 1949 ....
July 1953-Aug 1954s
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960~Feb 1961 . ...
Median:6
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
Reference peak to reference trough
47. Index -50. GNP
of indus- in 1954
trial
dollars
produc(Q)1
tion
49. GNP 51. Bank
in • cur- debits
rent
outside
dollars NYC
1
(Q)
43. Unemployment rate
52. Per- 54- Resonal
tail
income
sales
Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, peaktrough
peak to
trough
2
4.0
2
2
NA
NA
NA
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-14.1
+7.9
2+2.3
2+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.9
NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.8
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.7
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+0.7
+8.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.5
+2.2
+3.6
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
-5.7
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-2.6
-6.5
-16.0
-2.6
'-2.9
-3.6
-2.3
-3.8
-8.8
-2.4
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.6
6.0
7.4
7.0
+3.3
3.6
7.2
-3,4
+3.4
4.0
7.5
-2.1
+3.3
4.1
7.2
•4.0
Excluding postwar con4 contractions since
1948
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough
to reference peak
41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments
52. Per- 54- Resonal
tail
sales
income
Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, trough
peak
trough
to peak
2
3
2
NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73-9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131*7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+63.1
+103.3
-8.7
o-3'6
2
-0.9 -14.2
-18.9
+17.2
+17.7 '
+8.9
+7.2
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34-9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.3
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.6
+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5
+0.3
-5.0
-1.8
-2.2
3.3
7.6
6.0
7.4
+17.4
+35.2
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+20.8
-3.6
7.0
3.3
+13.0
+26.6
+12.5
+21.5
+24.4
+21.6
+16.5
-2.5
6.3
3.7
+13.0
+23.5
+12.7
+29.4
+39.0
+25.6
+23.4
-2.0
6.7
3.9
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927-Aug. 1929. .
1933-May 193T.
1938-Feb. 1945*.^...
NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
1945-Nov. 1948
1949-July 1953s .
19 54- July 1957 . .
1958-May I960
4 expansions since
1945
47- Index 50. GNP 49 GNP 51. Bank
of indus- in 1954 in cur- debits
dollars rent
outside
trial
dollars NYC
produc(Q)1
tion
(Q)1
43. Unemployment rate
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
Median:6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime ex-
Reference trough to reference peak
X1.9
f5-5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
3.2
2
1.9
8 3
' 3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series
(series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
lr
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
Vorld War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Appendixes
66
Appendix G.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTIED SERIES
Series e.re in one of the following categories:
(1) Those that are new to the report, (2) those that have been revised
historically, and (3) those for which historical data have not previously been ahown. See table 1 for later data.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
tor.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance. State programs (Thous.)*
1948..., ....
1949..., ...
1900
1951...,,.. .
1952
1953...,,...
1954.
1935...
1956,..,,...
1957. ......
1958... .....
1939
I960
166
285
294
174
221
175
303
256
218
242
354
292
281
206
305
288
181
201
177
318
201
333
276
166
209
188
320
240
226
225
407
284
271
228
221
219
436
258
303
210
379
263
199
219
179
313
228
223
239
438
244
294
239
377
250
199
213
198
313
222
236
244
400
246
316
219
359
252
209
242
195
314
222
227
246
410
258
322
194
340
223
236
315
207
294
223
245
267
350
264
335
202
385
170
254
207
229
319
218
320
182
242
168
238
322
203
386
194
234
175
251
315
211
344
200
210
169
298
276
234
298
197
213
190
280
253
233
224
235
363
291
363
204
236
305
338
271
351
224
214
302
314
311
373
215
223
320
311
351
385
2.U
230
355
320
275
381
7.31
6.62
11.65
12.25
11.72
9.62
11.10
7.68
7.15
11.02
11.71
11.31
9.42
10.86
7 /.7
7.04
12.17
10.70
12.45
8.93
11.78
14.51
14.31
12.15
13.53
15.10
13.74
15.29
15*78
12.36
15.57
13.72
13.60
15.25
14.54
11.40
13,67
14.77
13.22
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable goods industries (fill. dol. )*
1948
1949
1 950
1951
1932
1953
1954
1955
195$
1957
1938.
1959
1960 *......
7. OS
6.33
7.47
15.92
11.41
12.62
9.10
12.40
14.45
14.18
10.70
13.90
14.19
7.08
6.91
7.51
13.76
10.98
12.49
9.64
12.51
14.37
14.10
10.69
14.92
14.80
7.62
6.22
8.20
13.14
12.15
11.91
9.45
12.49
13.54
13.77
14.47
13.85 , 13.23
11.49
10.83
15.32
15.80
14.64
14.47
7.49
6.74
8.08
14.36
12.03
12.04
9.53
6.92
6.14
9.43
13.18
10.52
12.24
9.51
13.56
14.65
14.12
11.42
15.24
14.68
8.18
6.24
10.08
12.60
12.17
11.74
9.74
13.44
14.09
13.25
12.24
16.13
14.34
7.62
5.87
11.44
12.13
11.41
11.62
9.82
13.76
14.09
13.00
12.51
15.49
13.84
7.57
6.67
14.26
11.69
11.32
10.02
10.26
15.11
17.34
13.16
12.18
13.97
14-41
7.57
6.99
12.04
10.50
12.23
9.64
10.94
14.53
13.04
12.52
12.86
14.75
14.62
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (Bil. dol.)*
X
1948
1949
1950 ,
1951
1952 „
1953 .......
1954,
1955
1956
1957
1958. ......
1959
I960...,,...
2.04
1.79
2.10
4.67
3.48
3.48
2.69
3.79
4.64
4.92
3.76
4.46
5.04
2.28
1.95
2.26
4.93
3.59
3.50
2.82
3.71
4.58
4.99
3.51
4.73
5.14
2.31
1.92
2.27
4.66
3.66
3.77
2.72
4.02
4.56
4.70
3.55
4.97
5.06
2.58
1.62
2.37
4.59
3.54
3.84
2.96
3.64
4.98
4.44
3.66
4.80
5.12
2.09
1.72
3.00
4-37
3.25
3.52
2.85
3.96
4.83
4.79
3.59
4.85
5.17
2.50
1.81
2.89
4.08
3.56
3.20
3.32
4.39
4.61
4.18
3.80
5.11
5.01
2.20
1.68
3.53
3.91
3.77
4.02
3.14
3.92
4.43
4.49
3.90
5.16
4.78
2.17
1.80
4.48
3.75
3.30
2.88
3.28
4.38
4.72
4.21
4.06
4.85
4.96
2.20
2,01
4.21
3.36
3.50
3.08
3.22
4.44
4.52
4.16
4.23
5.02
4.87
2.21
1.90
3.82
3.82
3.49
2.80
3.38
4.36
4.70
4.02
4.32
5.12
4.65
2.23
1.99
3.77
3.79
3.H
2.85
3.57
4.78
5.00
3.86
4.34
4.99
4.81
2.27
1,92
4.27
3/77
3.49
3.12
3,57
5.03
4.92
3.63
4.23
5.37
4.66
*Da1;a are seasonally adjusted.
^-Excludes "other transportation equipment." 1948 data have been linked to data for the later period by dividing
eaeh mcnth by 96.7, the ratio of 1949 data excluding other transportation equipment to that including that component.
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
number1
1....
2
3....
4....
5....
6 ...
7... .
9....
10
11
12
13....
14. ...
15....
16....
1
6
6
6
6
6
7
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
48
53
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
;
••
••
21
21
21
22
22
22
22
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
22
22
22
23
22
22
23
20
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
23
23
21
20
23
23
23
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
.<
..
-
7
48
7
77
7
8
8
8
8
9
10
10
9
10
7
25....
26....
29....
30....
31....
32....
37....
10
10
7
6
10
10
10
40....
41....
42....
43....
45.-..
46....
47....
49....
11
11
11
11
11
11
50....
51...52....
53....
54
55.,..
57....
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
61....
62....
63....
64....
65....
66....
67....
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
81
82....
83... /
84. ...
85....
86....
87....
88....
89....
90. ...
91....
17
16
16
16
17
15
15
15
15
16
16
53
1t
49
9
9
9
17....
18.,..
19....
20....
21
22
23....
24. ...
54
49
54
49
54
49
48
54
53
..
48
••
12
12
Append ixes
Tables
Charts
55
5~0
55
56
55
51
51
55
56
56
51
51
50
50
••
52
52
*.
52
52
56
56
55
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
-
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
58
58
58
59
••
62
t
57
57
57
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
••
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
••
62
F
E
G3
66 (7-'63)
66 (7-' 63)
••
••
63
64
••
••
••
••
••
••
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
••
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
--
28
27
27
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
28
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
57
58
. , 57
58
59
57
58
59
57
57
58
58
57
58
••
••
••
--
..
••
•-
62
62
64
63
63
59
••
62
62
••
••
57
58
59
-•
62
57
57
58
58
59
59
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
57
57
58
58
62
62
62
••
59
59
59
62
62
62
mt
ft
57
57
58
58
..
., ..
••
*•
5?
58
••
-•
••
••
57
5?
58
58
••
••
••
••
2
59
59
••
..
63
63
62
59
..
63
63
63
••
58
--
63
63
63
64
63
64
63
62
57
..
••
••
••
..
-•
..
••
..
..
••
58
58
••
62
59
57
57
..
30
" 30" •• ••
30
30 . . ••
30
31
31
31
^•See back cover for series titles and sources,
theses
indicates issue in which data are shown.
6
••
••
2
••
••
68 (6- '63)
••
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
•-
••
..
..
68 (6l'63)
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
64
63
63
63
64
66 (7-'63)
65
••
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
63
••
68 (6- '63)
63
64
64
64
63
63
63
64
64
••
-.
64
64
63
63
•-
"
Page number shown is for the June 1963 issue.
3
Date in paren-
67
68
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES.-Continued
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series 1
number 1
92....
93....
94....
95....
96....
97....
98....
16
17
17
16
17
17
17
121...
122. . .
123...
125...
126...
127...
3,28...
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
Dl....
D5....
D6....
DH...
D
1
9
.
.
.
D23...
D33...
D34. - .
D35...
D36. , .
D41...
D4?. - .
D4B...
D54. . .
D58...
D61...
Charts
2
3
4
••
*.
5
••
1
2
28
28
28
27
28
28
28
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
3
4
5
••
..
38
38
A
B
C
D
E
F
64
63
••
••
64
••
-•
-•
64
64
••
..
..
••
63
40
44
41
42
43
47
35
39
2
G
••
39
38
38
See back cover for series titles and sources.
9
45
46
35
34
34
8
39
39
35
35
34
34
7
2
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
36
37
36
36
37
37
36
37
6
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
1
Appendixes
Tables
Page number shown Is for the June 1963 issue.
.*
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order* "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included
in the I960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—
5.
*6.
*7.
*9.
10.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Average weekly i n i t i a l c l a i m s for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
New private nonfarm d w e l l i n g units started (M).--Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
porations (Q).--Nattonp.l Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
M4. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
* 16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17- Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q),--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
materials (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of prof its (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, from special tabulations of the Office of Business
Economics
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indus-
tries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories (M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M),--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagriculturol establishments (M).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagriculturol employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rote, total (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45.
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). --Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49, Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product tn 1954 dollars (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*S1. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52 Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, alt commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62, Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in m a n u f a c t u r i n g
(the sum of wages dnd salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, m a n u f a c t u r i n g
(M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of lobor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economic s
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce,Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted ncc change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bonk rotes on short-term business loons, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USK TO AVOID
PAYMENT O4F POrrAOI, $«X>
(OPO)
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment" by Bureau of the Census
82. Federct cash payments to the public (M).-Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment,
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).— Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of^ the
President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of
differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. Federd cosh surplus or deficit (M).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment,
85. Percent change In total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal ReSystejin
86. Expcxr*, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).-Departrnent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q). —Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defence Department obligations, procurement (M),—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
V I . Defenne Department obligations, total (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M)."-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).-F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. SurpluJi or deficit, Federal Income and product account (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods industrtes( EOM).-
Depiirtment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q),-"National
Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
121.
122.
123.
125.
126.
127.
128.
...
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, Index of industrial production (M).-- Organtion for Economic Cooperation and Development
United Kingdom, index of Industrial production (M).—Organtion for Economic Cooperation and Development
Canada, index of industrial production (M).--Dominion Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
West Germany, index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
France, index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
Japan, indux of industrial production (M).--The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
United States, Index of Industrial production (M).--See series47.
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index, Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D<sl. Sources for
other diffusion ;.ndexes are as follows:
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).--Purchasing Agents Association
of Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New ordets, durable manufactures (Q).--Oun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight ccrloadings (Q).—Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER