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BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
JANUARY 1989




U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
George R. Green, Editor

This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. (Telephone: 202-523-0800) Technical staff and their responsibilities for the
publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Frank de Leeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue
Composite Indexes: Latest Release

iii
v

ItCII

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

JANUARY 1989
Data Through December
Volume 29, Number 1

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS

Al I
A2
A3
A4

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Chart

.

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
39

74
77
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

Employmentand Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl I
C2
C3 I

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change




The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department.




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8

AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2

M
Cl |

Oj

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Dl I
D2 I

Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

El I
E2 I

Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

Fl I
F2 I
F3 I

Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

PART III. APPENDIXES
Business Cycle Indicators: Revised Composite Indexes
Historical Data for Selected Series
Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

97
104
106
108
112

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Business Conditions Digest,
Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent find-

REVISION OF THE COMPOSITE INDEXES

ings of economic
research, newly avail-

The composite indexes of leading, coincident, and
lagging indicators will be revised beginning with the release of January 1989 data on March 3. The revision will
incorporate changes in components, updated statistical
factors, and historical revisions in component data. An
article presenting the revision appears on pages 97-102
of this issue. The same article is published in the
January 1989 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS.
Data for 1948 through June 1988 for the revised indexes and their components, plus revised statistical factors and a description of the changes in the indexes,
are available on a diskette, on a printout, and on the
Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board. To obtain
an order form, technical specifications, and prices,
write to the Statistical Indicators Division (BE-60),
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 523-0800.

able time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

Changes in this issue are as follows:

1. The series on employment and unemployment in the
civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 90, 91, 441, 442,
444-448, and 451-453) have been revised by the source agency
from 1984 forward. These revisions reflect the application
of updated seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics,
Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis.
(Continued on page iv.)
The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on March 9.



in

2. The ratio of help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons to unemployed (series 60) has been revised from 1984 forward to incorporate revised data for the
unemployment component. (See item 1, above.)
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
3. The diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations (series 965) has
been revised by the source agency from 1953 forward to reflect a change in the rounding
procedure.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from The Conference
Board, Inc., 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022.
4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 73-76, 82, and 84.




IV

COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
INDICATORS: DECEMBER 1988

The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.6 percent in December to 194.6
(1967=100), according to preliminary estimates released February 1 by the Commerce
Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
On the basis of more complete data, the index decreased 0.2 percent in November and
increased 0.5 percent in October. A month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that
showed the index decreased 0.2 percent in November and increased 0.4 percent in October.
Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars was the major contributor to
the October revision.
Six of 9 indicators available for December contributed to the increase in the index.
They were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: manufacturers'
new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1982 dollars, stock prices, contracts
and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, change in sensitive materials
prices, building permits, and money supply in 1982 dollars.
Two of 9 indicators made negative contributions. They were, ordered from the larger
negative contributor to the smaller: average workweek and average weekly initial claims
for state unemployment insurance.
One indicator was unchanged: vendor performance (i.e., companies receiving slower
deliveries from vendors).
The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate
economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in December to 182.1 (1967=100). On the basis
of more complete data, the index increased 0.1 percent in November and 1.0 percent in
October.
The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.8 percent in December to 150.5
(1967=100). On the basis of more complete data, the index increased 0.9 percent in
November and decreased 0.1 percent in October.
The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic
activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected
to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to
confirm the movements in the coincident index.
These concepts are explained more fully in the 1984 edition of Handbook of Cyclical
Indicators (price $5.50, stock number 003-010-00127-5), which is available from the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.
More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 107 of this
issue of Business Conditions Digest.
A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite
indexes and their components immediately upon their release. The message is updated
weekly to include recently available data for composite index components that will be
incorporated into the next release.
This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public
release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge
to users. For information, call (202) 377-1986.
Next release date: March 3 for the January composite indexes.




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METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1977.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components

All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
Reference Turning Dates
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
have been designated.
groups and combine those with similar timing
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically
as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the
1981-82.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
^v

Economic
N. Process

Cyclical^,
Timing
\.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

III.

CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)

MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

VII.

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

III.

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Profits and profit
margins (2 series)

Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
Economic
NV Process

Cyclical^
Timing
N.

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

N.

Industrial
production
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
11 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs,
all but one component of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
each component series is standardized: The monthor intentions. Indexes based on responses of
to-month percent changes in a given series are
business executives about their plans and
divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
series are prevented from dominating the index.
This section covers 112 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 21 indicators used in the series.
term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak
This section also records rates of change for the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
(For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18 rates of change for the same aggregates are
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 series at ail turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct
In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
are other indexes based on leading indicators that
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
have been grouped by economic process. Taken indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
together, these additional indexes include many cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.




Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
This part is divided into six sections which cover in the physical volume of inventories held by labor force and its major components: Total
private business. The former include all private
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
(A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
force.
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surl a b o r r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t r e c e i p t s , investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators.
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are
economy. Included are series relating to
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E.
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
which the activities they measure occur in the
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
measuring activities which usually precede pron a t i o n a l p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders,
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
are classified as "advance measures of defense
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving,
measures of defense activity."
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market m a j o r e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
nations with which we have important trade
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corless personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inDisposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inpayments to government.
uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1977
The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1977) provide
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1977) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
rates of change for most of these measures.
cluded.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES

4



HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points

indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc,
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points

indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points

indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or-




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data 2

Series title and timing classification

Unit
of
measure

1

Percent change

Annual average
1987

2dQ
1988

1988

4th Q
1988

3dQ
1988

Oct.
1988

Nov.
1988

Nov.
to
Dec.
1988

Oct.

Dec.
1988

to
Nov.
1988

3dQ
to
4th Q
1988

2dQ
to
3dQ
1988

Series number

1

Table 1.

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920
930.
940.

Eleven leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

L,L,L... 1967 = 100
do
CCC.
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
L,L,L...

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917 Money and financial flows

L,L,L...
L,L,I
L,L,L-...
L,L,L...

do
do
do
do

189.4
169.7
142.4
119.2

192.5
177.9
147 .2
120.8

NA

NA
105.8
NA
NA

106.3
121.7
145.8

192.3
176.7

146.7
120.4

192.8
178.7
147.8
120.9

NA

NA

105 .7
119.5
151.2

105 .5

41.1
3.9
305

41.1
3.9
298

0.701
158

193.9

193.7

181.2
149.2
121.4

180.7
147.9
122.2

NA

105.2

193.4
180.8
149.3
121.1

194.6
182 .1
150.5
121.0

NA

NA

NA

NA

104.9

105 .6

-0.2
NA

NA
NA

NA

146.9

146.6

NA
NA

41.1

41.1

41.2

41.2

41.0

3.9
302

3.9
293

4.0
282

3.9
291

0.704

0.701

0.727

0.735

0.716

158

157

160

161

158

NA

0.9

-0.9

105 .1

NA

149.3

-0.2
0. 1

-0.2

0.6
0.7
0.8
-0.1

NA
0.7
NA
NA

0.3
1. 1

0.7
0.4

NA

-0.2
NA

-1.3

0.6
1 .4
0.9
0.4

910
920
930
940

NA
-0.3
NA
NA

914
915
916
917

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average weekly hours, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted 4 )
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment 3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers

L,L,L.... Hours
do
L,C,L...
L,C,L... Thousands

41.0
3.7
320

3.9
305

0.

-0.5

-0.1
-3.2

0.

0.
0.

-4.8

-1.3

0 . 7 3 1 -0.019
161
-1.9

0.015 - 0 . 0 0 3
-0.6
1.9

0.
0.
3.0

1
21
5

0.026
1.9

60
46

L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100

0.615

U.C.C.... A.r., bil. hrs
U,C,C.... Millions
do
C,C,C,...
L,C,U.... Thousands

190.14
109.23
102.31
24,784

197 . 16
111.80
106.04
25,564

196.52
111.55
105 .61
25 , 4 9 8

198.02
112.08
106.48
25 , 6 5 0

199.60
112 .62
107.34
25 , 8 2 7

199.95
112.34
106.97
25,743

198.88
112.71
107.38
25,844

199.98
112.82
107.66
25,893

-0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4

0.6
0.1
0.3
0.2

0.8
0.5
0.8
0.6

0.8
0.5
0.8
0.7

48
42
41
40

60.77

61 .54

61.46

61.59

61.79

61.69

61.85

61.83

0.16

-0.02

0.13

0.20

90

7,425

6,701
5 .5

6,664

6,678

6,545

6,554
5.3
2.0

-0.7
-0.1

0.1
0.1

-0.2

5.3
1.9

6,518
5 .3

6,563

5.5
2.1

2.0
0.2
0.2
4.4
0.1

37
43
45
91
44

0 .5

50
52

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagriculturai establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagriculturai activities
*41. Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3

U,Lg,U.... Percent

Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted 4 )
43. Unemployment rate (inverted 4 ) 5
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv. 4 ) 3
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3

L,Lg,U....
L,lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,lg,Lg....

Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
°ercent

153

2.1

5.5
2.1

1.9

5.4
1.9

14.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

12.9

13.4

12 .6

12.8

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.2

6.2
2.4

0.
6.0
0.1

0.

0.
0.
0.
0.

0.7

0.6
0.7

-0.1
-1.6

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50 Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52. PersonaMncome in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction

3 8 4 7 .0 3 9 9 5 .0 3 9 8 5 .2 4 0 0 9 .4 4 0 2 9 .2
C C C A r , bil. dol
C.C.C.... ..'..'.'....do....'''... 3 1 6 3 . 5 3 2 6 3 . 5 3 2 4 6 . 5 3 2 6 9 . 0 3 3 0 4 . 9 3 3 0 5 . 5 3 2 9 3 . 8 3 3 1 5 . 3
C,C,C....

do
do

C,C,C....

Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49 Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

C,C,C.... 1977 = 100
do
C,C,C....
do
C,L,I
C,C,C.... A.r., bil. dol

Capacity Utilization:
82 Capacity utilization rate mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials 3

L C,U .. Percent
do
L,C,U....

-0.4

1.1

2 7 0 4 . 1 2 7 9 2 . 8 2 7 7 6 .1 2 7 9 9 . 0 2 8 3 4 . 0 2 8 3 5 . 0 2 8 2 2 . 7 2 8 4 4 . 3

-0.4

0.8

0.8

1.3

51

-0.6

-0.1

0.7

1.0

53

0.3
0.3
0.3

1.8
1.6
1.9
0.4

1.0
1.2
1.2

0. 1

47
73
74
49

0.3
0.5

82
84

6
7

567.6

570.0

566.6

566.1

129.8
139.8
137.2
138.4
136.0
133.1
143.3
141.0
145 .0
141.9
136.8
145.0
146.8
142.3
143.9
1 6 6 3 . 3 1 7 6 2 . 4 1 7 6 2 . 4 176 8. 9 1 7 7 0 . 3

139.3
144.4
146.6

139.8
145.0
146.7

140.2
145.5
147.1

544.8

560.4

558.1

561.8

0.4
0.4
0.1

84.4
85 .0

0.
0.5

0.1
0.

0.8
1.3

107 . 7 2 119.40 119.22 119.41 125 .53 1 2 2 . 7 9 1 2 2 . 9 4 1 3 0 . 8 5
9 8 . 2 6 104.66 105 .15 1 0 4 . 2 0 1 0 8 . 3 9 1 0 6 . 5 9 106.08 112.51

0.1

6.4
6.1

0.2

5 .1

-0.5

-0.9

4.0

81.0
80.5

83.5
83.7

83.2
83.0

84.0
84.3

84.3
84.8

84.3
84.5

84.3
85.0

83. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6 Mfrs ' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries 3 (u)
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55 Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment (u)

L,L,L... Bil. dol
do
L,L,L...

84.56
87 .21 8 7 . 1 5 8 6 . 9 0 9 0 . 1 2 8 7 . 8 8 8 9 . 5 2 9 2 . 9 7
do
L,L,L...
3.04
6.38
2.50
3.07
4.62
4.35
3.79
4.59
do
L,L,L...
L,Lg,U... Bil. dol., EOP ... 4 0 0 . 7 2 4 4 6 . 16 4 2 3 . 1 6 4 3 2 . 3 8 4 4 6 . 16 4 3 6 . 7 3 4 3 9 . 7 8 4 4 6 . 1 6
61
64
56
66
66
56
57
60
L,L,L... Percent
C,C,C.
C,C,C.
C,L,C
C,L,U
U,L,U
L,C,C...
L,L,L...

Bil. dol

do.
1977 = 100.
Bil. dol
.do.
A.r., bil. dol
I Q 1966 = 100.

NA
451.38
NA
435.39
127.8
133.8
125.88 134.33
113.51 117 .45
130.0
138.3
90.6
93.7

482 .81
449 .78
132.5
132.72
117.11
139.8
93.6

493.38
NA
451.62
NA
134.7
136.8
134.48 137.46
117.42 118.95
139.2 140 .4
96.0
93.0

501.91
456.32
136.7
136.56
118.23

94.1

503.84
NA
457 . 2 3
NA
137.2
136.5
1 3 7 . 8 1 138.02
1 1 9 . 3 2 119.30

1.9

3.9

-1.31

3.34

-0.3
-1.55

1.52

1.5
0

2.2
0

3.2
_9

NA
NA
0.5
0.2
0.

2.2
0.4
1.7
1.3
0.3

NA
NA
1.6
2.2
1.3
0.9

2.6

-3.1

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

0.2
2.9

0.2
NA

12
13

0.7
-4

0.4
0.2

-0.1
0.9
0.9

-1.2

91.9

-1.2

123.2
53,675

123.9

-1.1
-5.1

0.6
NA

93.0

3.7

8
25
96
32

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
caoital eoods




L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... Number

121.2
57 ,087

123.8

123.4

NA 5 6 , 0 3 6

123.6
57 , 6 8 4

123.9

124.6

NA 5 6 , 5 5 7

NA

34.69

39.33

38.00

41.15

40.51

38.45

39.92

43.16

3.8

8.1

8.3

-1.6

10

L,L,L.
L,L,L...

do
do

38.66
29.66

44.39
34.93

43.66
33.58

46.32
36.63

44.85
36.33

43.35
34.62

44.40
35.78

46.79
38.58

2.4
3.4

5.4
7.8

6.1
9.1

-3.2
-0.8

20
24

LL.L...

do.

34.28

40.68

39 .91

42.53

41.36

40.16

40.95

42.97

2.0

4.9

6.6

-2.8

27

L,L,L... Bil. dol

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data 2

Series title and timing classification

1

of

Percen change

1

Annual average
1987

4th Q

1988

1988

3dQ
1988

1988

Nov.
1988

Oct.
1988

Dec.

2dQ
to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q

1988

Oct.

2dQ

1988

1988

Nov.

to

to

Nov.
1988

Dec.
1988

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.

B4. Fixed Capital Investment— Con.
Business Investment Commitments— Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.... Mil. sq. ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
5
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
C,Lg,lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

80.73
29.79
78.06

75.34
NA
NA

Clg,lg.... A.r., bil. dol

3 8 9 . 6 7 430.17

C,Lg,Lg....
do
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100
C,Lg,C.... A.r., bil. dol

404.67
144.5
445.1

NA
157.4
487.2

1,620
123.0
195.2

1,487
115.7
192.1

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., thousands ..
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol

71.76
40.69
87.46

77.86
39 .09
92.55

73.33
NA
NA

69.59

68.60

19.2

1,481
116.4
189.6

1,538
122.2
197.4

9
11
97

2.2

61

2.1
2.3
1.0

NA
0.3

69
76
86

-3.9

NA 4 6 0 . 8 7
160.6
159.9
490.4

1,468
113.7
191.6

NA
NA

2.1

-1.4

426 . 9 4 4 3 6 . 0 1 4 4 5 . 7 3

448.51 457.93
156.5
160.1
490.2
495.0

8.5
5.8

81.80

459.02
160.9

1,558
120.9

NA
161.1

1,524
124.9

-0.4

0.6

NA
0.1

29.2

1,533
120.9

1.6
0.

-2.2

3.3

-0.9
-2.3

1.1

-5.8

-0.9

4.8
7.5
3.0

28
29
89

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed 6 ) 3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories 3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order 3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71 Mfg and trade inventories 5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars 5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars 3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order 5

L,L,L...

do

34.4

42.5

35.3

39.5

L,L,L...
L,L,L...

do
do

32.17
52.3

NA
NA

19.61

15.67

54.7

1.48

NA

2.52

L,L,L... Bil. dol

LgLgLg Bil. dol., EOP ... 707 .33
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
674.91
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
106.82

NA
NA
NA

LgLgLg

NA

Ratio

1.51

L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 2 5 5 . 1 1

NA

1.37
274.5
0.98

730.92
689.75
109.02
1.53

4.2

22.59
3.9

21.41

77.4

NA
NA

2.63

NA

1.90

750.26
696.11
111.62
1.53

268.04

275.93

303.3

-0.22
302.8

308.4

0.25

0.35

0.47

NA
NA
NA
NA

750.59
697.55
112 .07

-10.3

30

NA
NA

-3.94
22 .7

NA
NA

36
31

-2.36

NA

0.11

NA

38

0.4
0.3
0.5

NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA

71
70
65

-1.18

35.7

NA
NA

-0.46

NA

753.56
699.39
112 .67

NA
NA
NA

31.8

NA

0.

NA

NA

-0.2

NA

2.6
0.9
2.4

277.36

NA

77

NA

78

-0.51
0.7
-0.50

98
23
99

1.4

3.0

19

3.9
3.4
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.

1.53

1.53

NA 2 7 7 . 8 2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

16
18
79
80
15
26

0.
2 .9

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials 3
23. Spot market orices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed 6 ) 3

L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... Percent

Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks (u)

ILL

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
, in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
L,L,L...
do
L,C,L...
do
L,C,L...
do
L,L,L.... Cents
L,L,L... 1977 = 100

142.9
127.1
176.6
160.7
4.8
99.3

160.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

162.7
143.1
183.2
163.7
5.8

169.1
148.0
185 .2
164.1
5.9

98.7

98.7

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

l,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
L,L,L...
do

396.6
396.7

417.7
NA

420.8
418.7

425 .7
423.7

NA
NA

1.2
1.2

NA
NA

34
35

1.1

NA

63

0.26

0.49

-0.02
310.6
-0.03

-0.51
305 .0
-0.07

0.15

0.29

0.66

309.7
-0.14

317.2

1.5
-0.07

1941-43 = 10... 2 8 6 . 8 3 2 6 5 . 7 9 2 6 3 . 1 4 2 6 6 . 9 2 2 7 4 . 9 8 2 7 7 . 4 0 27

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100
*b) Actual data as percent of trend 3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
3
national income
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do

1.02

0.13

276.51

-2.3

171.5

NA

177.1

179.1

0.753

0.747

0.758

137.0

136.8

136.5

99.8

99.7

99.5

137.8
100.4

73.0

NA

73.2

73.3

0.40

0.59

0.26

0.23

0.14

0.03

0.52

-0.11

0.55

0.20

0.36

0.11

0.57

0.41

0.46

2.0

NA

0.47

0.27

NA

136.7
99.6

2.4

NA

0.732

0.14

0.71

1.8
0.12

NA

68

1.0
0.9

62
62

0.1

NA

64

-0.33
-0.35
-0.17
0.2

-0.03

-0.2

-0.3

85
102
104
105
106

0.028
0.012

0.083
0.020

107
108

NA
NA
84.49 - 4 6 . 3 4
NA - 2 3 . 7 5
-2.4
NA

NA
50.17
NA
NA
NA

33
112
113
111
110

NA

39

1.5

138.5
100.9

137 .6
100.3

137.3
100.1

-0.6

-0.2

-0.2

-0.6

-0.2

-0.2

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml3
102. Change in money supply M23
104 Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
*106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112.
113.
*111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5




L,L,L....
do
L,C,U....
do
LLL
do
L,L,L... Bil. dol
L LL
do

0.29
0.27
0.38
631.8
2430.3

NA
632.4
2454.8

633.5
2463.6

634.7
2458.5

NA
630.0
2450.5

630.8
2 4 4 5 .7

629.0
2451.8

NA
630.2
2453.9

C,C,C.... Ratio
C,Lg,C....
do

6.084
1.321

6.272
1.351

6.246
1.339

6.274
1.351

6.357
1.371

1.376

1.365

1.372

-0.011

NA
8.73
41.19
5.9
541.13

NA
36.95
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
2.56
48.90
59.54
35.79
7 .1
9.5
621.40 5 7 4 . 6 0

NA
52.73
NA
NA
NA

NA
26.17
46.87
7.9

NA
23.77
53.75
6.4

NA
108.26
NA
NA

NA
-2.40

2.47

NA

NA

NA

L,L,L.... A.r., bil. dol
L,L,L....
do
L.L,L....
do
L,L,L.... A.r., percent
L,L,L.... A.r., bil. dol
L,L,L... Percent, EOP ...

0.69

2.34

0.52

2.42

0.43

0.76

0.33
-0.3

0.2

6.88
-1.5

0.49

-0.16
NA
0.2
0.1

0.007

-7.5

NA

NA

NA

NA

-0.08

0.16

NA
-0.7

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
1

Table 1.

Basic data 3
Series title and timing classification1

Percent change

Annual average
2dQ
1987

1988

3dQ

4th Q

1988

1988

1988

Oct.
1988

Nov.
1988

Oct.

Dec.
1988

to
Nov.
1988

2dQ
to
3dQ

to

3dQ
to
4th Q

1988

Nov.
Dec.
1988

Series number

Unit
of

1988

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit— Con.
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted')3©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve 3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills3©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds 3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 @
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3©..
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks3©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income 3

L,L),U.... Mil. dol
do
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,Lg.... Percent
C,Lg,Lg....
do
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
C,Lg,Lg....
do
U,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....

241 - 1 , 3 3 2 - 1 , 9 5 6 - 2 , 1 9 6 -1,218 -1,237 -1,742
756
2,357
3, 173
2,885
2,292
2,861
2,299
6.66
5.83
9.69
8.63
7.64

10.16
8.09
8.20

7.57
6.67
9.96
8.98
7.68

7.16
6.23

7.98
6.99

10.08

10.14

9.06
7.83

9.20
7.74

10.49

10.65

10.66

9.18
9.32

8.49
8.78

9.75
9.71

-676

1,716

8.47
7.70
9.96
9.03
7.51

8.30
7.34
9.86
8.89
7.47

8.35
7.68
9.98
9.07
7.46

9.13
7.61

-0.01

10.56
10.11
10.18

10.23

10.63

10.81

0.40

0.41
0.41
0.07
0.06
0.15
0.18

10.00

10.05

10.50

0.05

0.45

8.76
8.09

10.05

NA 6 4 4 . 3 7 6 5 3 . 3 2
Lg,lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 6 1 3 . 0 2
NA 6 5 7 . 2 3 6 6 1 . 7 0
NA
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol
364.12 389.34 3 8 9 . 8 3 3 9 2 . 7 5 398.27 393.94 3 9 5 . 9 2 404.94
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg Lg Lg

do
Percent

354.26 364.03 366.04 363.66

505 -1,066
5 6 2 -1,145

367.06

364.09

365.58

371.51

15.64

NA

15.86

15.92

NA

15.73

15.87

NA

117.7
113.6
0.4
113.5
102.8
102.6

121.7
118.3
0.3
118.2
106.9
106.3

121.0
117 .5
0.3
117.1
106.5
106.0

122 .4
119.1
0.4
119.7
108.0
106.9

123.8
120.3
0.3
120.9
108.5
107.5

120.2
0.4
120.7
108.2
107.1

120.3
0.3
120.8
108.3
107.4

120.5
0.3
121.2
109.0
108.1

0.05
0.34
0.12
0.18

0.7
0.5

NA
2.3

0.4

1.6

NA

0.14

240
288

0.82
0.76
0.06
0.14

-0.09
0.01
1.26
0.93

1.4
0.7

-978
-881

0.49
0.71

-0.18
-0.17
-0.23
-0.10
0.36
0.47

93
94
119
114
116
115
117
118
67
109

NA
1.4

66
72

-0.7

0.9

101

0.06

NA

95

1.1
1.0

0.8
0.7
0.7

310
320
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334

1.0

340

-0.1

341
345
346
370
358

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Bl. Price Movements
310.
320.
320c
322.
330.
335.
331.
332
333
334.

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
1982 = 100
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©.... 1982-84 = 100.
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Percent
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
1982-84 = 100.
1982 = 100
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
do
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
do
do
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
do
PPI capital equipment
do
PPI, finished consumer goods

0.1
-0.1

0.1
0.1
0.3

93.7

95.9

96.4

97.1

96.2

97.1

94.1

97.4

101.5
111.7
103.6

107 .1
114.3
106 .2

106.4
113.7
105.5

108.3
114.9
107 .1

109.2
115.7
107.9

108.7
115.4
107.5

109.2
115.7
107 .9

109.7
116.1
108.2

173.5

179.0

178.4

179.7

181.5

181.5

181.4

181.7

-0.1

94.0

93.3

92.9

93.1

92 .9

92.7

-0.2

-3.1

0.5
0.3
0.4

0.2
0.
0.3
0.6
0.7
3.5
0.5
0.3
0.3

1.2
1.4
0.1
2.2
1.4
0.8
0.7
1.8
1.1
1.5

0.2

0.7

-0.1

1.0
0.5
0.6
-0.9

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector

1977 = 100

do
do
do
do
do

188.5
100.6
111.0
109.0

NA
NA
NA
NA

93.5

93.0

195.9
100.9
111.8
110.1

198.4
101.1
112 .2
110.6

-0.2

NA
NA
NA
NA

-0.5

1.3
0.2
0.4
0.5

NA
NA
NA
NA

0.4
0.4
0.2

0.4
0.6

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed.
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age.
Number unemployed, full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over 3
452. Females 20 years and over 3
453 Both sexes 16-19 years of age3

Millions,
.do.

Thousands,
.do.

do.
.do.
.do.

Percent
do
do

119.86 121.67 1 2 1 . 3 5 121.88 1 2 2 . 3 9 122 .09 1 2 2 . 5 1 1 2 2 . 5 6
112.44 114.97 114.69 115 .20 1 1 5 . 8 4 115.57 1 1 5 . 9 5 116.01
6,701
7 ,425
6,664 6,678 6,545
6,518
6,554
6,563
3,369
2,987
2,938
2,965
2,953
2,953
2,911
2,996
2,709
2,496
2,487
2,483
2,422
2 ,427
2,413
2,445
1,347
1,226
1,216
1,244
1,194
1,122
1,165
1,179
5,979
5,357
5,176
5,305
5,333
5 ,273
5,317
5,255
78.0
56.2
54.7

77.9
56.8
55.3

78.0
56.6
55.1

77.9
56.8
56.0

77 .8
57 .2

77 .8

77 .8

57.0

55.2

55 .2

57.4
55.1

77.8
57.3
55.2

0.3
0.3
0.7
2.9
1.3
-6.0

1.9

0.
0.4
-0.1

0.
0.1
-0.1
-1.4
-0.9

5.1
0.8

0.
-0.1

0.1

-0.9

0.5
2.3
0.5
-0.1

0.2
0.9

-2.0

0.5
-2.8
-6.4
-1.5

-0.1

0.4
-0.8

441
442
37
444
445
446
447
451
452
453

D. Government Activities
Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512

Federal Government surplus or deficit 3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures

517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense

A.r., bil. dol
do
do
do
do
do

- 1 5 7 . 8 -141.9 - 1 3 3 . 3 - 1 2 3 . 5
NA
916.5
974.2
NA
983.0 975.5
1116.1 1116.3 1099.0 1143.0
1074.2
56.2
53.9
56.0
NA
52.9
655.7
698.4
708.0
NA
701.3
602.8
647.4 642.1
665.6
652.0

Mil. dol

30,812
12,032
9,145
188.9
1,589
295.3

NA 3 3 , 8 7 8 2 8 , 7 8 2
NA 1 5 , 0 3 4 12 , 9 8 1
9,120 10,638
7 ,501
186.2
186.0
184.8
NA
1,586
1,576
297 .5
298.8
294.3

21,176
2,400
4,428
33,853
3,471
5 .896

NA 26 , 5 9 6 27 , 3 3 2
NA
3,192
3,397
NA
5,338
5,704
NA 3 6 , 1 6 8 3 6 , 6 1 7
NA
3,363
3,136
NA
5 .693
5 .873

9.8
-0.8
-1.5
-0.2

1.4
1.5

NA
NA
4.0
NA
NA
2.1

500
501
502
510
511
512

NA
NA
NA
1.4

517
525
548
557
570
564

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

602
604
606
612
614
616

D2. Defense Indicators
do
do
1977 = 100
Thousands
A.r., bil. dol

NA
NA
NA
NA
9 , 7 4 9 10,695
184.0
183.5
1,566
NA
298.4

NA
NA
NA
NA
8 , 3 9 2 10,160
183.2
183.3
NA
1,565

NA
NA
-21.5
-0.4
-0.1

NA
NA
21.1
-0.1

NA

-15.0
-13.7
-29.5
-0.6
-0.6
-1.5

30.0
-0.7

E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imoorts of automobiles and Darts




Mil. dol

do
do
do
do
do

NA 27 ,816 27 , 1 7 7
NA
3,092
2,808
NA 5 , 6 9 8
5,709
NA 3 6 , 6 0 0 3 8 , 1 3 4
NA 2 , 7 1 8
2,645
NA
6.589
6.291

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-2.3
-9.2

0.2
4.2
-2.7
-4.5

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2.8
6.4
6.9
1.2
-6.7

3.2

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data:
Series title

Unit
of

P ercent chang

^
E

A nnual averag
3dQ
1987

4th Q
1987

1st Q
1988

2dQ
1988

3dQ
1988

IstQ
to
2dQ
1988

4th Q
1988

2dQ
to
3dQ
1988

3dQ
to
4th 0
1988

X

1986

1987

-30.88
93.76
124.64
-36.14
55.99
92.13
22.53
16.74

-35.13
106 . 2 1
141 .34
-40.07
62 .39
102.46
25.94
20.84

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-38.99
1 06 . 32
145 . 3 0
-39.66
64.90
104.57
23.29
22.22

-29.15
119.25
148 . 4 0
-41.19
68.01
109.20
33.25
20.71

-33.82
121.12
154.94
-35.18
75.30
110.48
26.55
25.40

-30.99
123.00
153.99
-30.15
79.61
109.76
23.43
25.37

-27 .78
129.79
157 . 5 7
-28.53
82 . 3 1
110.84
26.83
27.17

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2.83
1.6
-0.6
5.03
5 .7
-0.7
-11.8
-0.1

3.21
5.5
2.3
1.62
3.4
1.0
14.5
7.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

A.r., bil. dol
do
A.r., dollars
A.r., bil. dol
do
do
A.r., dollars

4240.3
3721.7
15 , 4 0 1
3706.3
3019.6
2640.9
10,929

4526.7
3 8 4 7 .0
15,770
3812.6
3209.7
2686.3
11,012

4861.8
3995.0
16,231
3952.5
3472.9
2789.4
11,331

4568.0
3865.3
15 , 8 2 6
3852.2
3224.9
2683.9
10,989

4662.8
3923.0
16,022
3855.9
3315.8
2728.9
11,145

4724.5
3956.1
16, 126
3890.1
3375.6
2762.3
11,260

4823.8
3985.2
16,213
3949.9
3421.5
2762.2
11,237

4909.0
4009.4
16,283
3969.9
3507.5
2800.4
11,362

4989.9
4029.2
16,301
4000.0
3587.1
2832.8
11,463

2.1
0.7
0.5
1.5
1.4
0.
-0.2

1.8
0.6
0.4
0.5
2.5
1.4
1.1

1.6
0.5
0.1
0.8
2.3
1.2
0.9

200
50
217
213
224
225
227

A.r., bil. dol
do
do
do
do
do
do
do

2807 .5
2455.2
406.5
385.0
943.6
879.5
1457.3
1190.7

3012.1
2521.0
421.9
390.9
997.9
890.5
1592.3
1239.5

3226.0
2591.1
449.9
408.6
1047.2
899.9
1728.9
1282.6

3058.2 3076.3 3128.1
2545.2 2531.7 2559.8
441.4
422.0
437.8
387.6
406.5
401.1
1006.6 1012.4 1016.2
891.9
890.5
892.7
1 6 1 0 . 2 1 6 4 1 .9 1 6 7 4 . 1
1246is 1253.6 1265.9

3194.6
2579.0
449.8
410.6
1036.6
893.6
1708 2
1274.8

3261.2
2603.8
452.9
410.4
1060.8
904.5
1747 5
1288.9

3320.1
2621.9
459.3
412.5
1075.2
908.7
1785 6
1300.7

2.1
0.8
2.7
2.4
2.0
0 1
2 0
O.'?

2.1
1.0
0.7
0.
2.3
1.2
2 3
lil

1.8
0.7
1.4
0.5
1.4
0 5
2 2
o!9

230
231
232
233
236
238
oj l
£ -a 7

do
.do.
.do.
do.
do
do.

665.9
643.5
650.4
628.1
15.5
15.4

712.9
674.8
673.7
640.4
39.2
34.4

765.5
721.8
717.4
679.3
48.1
42.5

702.8
667.9
688.3
654.9
14.5
13.0

764.9
724.7
692.9
657.6
72.0
67.1

763.4
728.9
698.1
662.9
65.3
66.0

758.1
715.1
714.4
679.7
43.7
35.3

772.5
726.1
722.8
686.6
49.7
39.5

767.9
717.1
734.3
687.9
33.7
29.2

-0.7
-1.9
2.3
2.5
-21.6
-30.7

1.9
1.5
1.2
1.0
6.0
4.2

-0.6
-1.2
1.6
0.2
-16.0
-10.3

240
241
242
243
245
30

do
do
do.
do.
do
do

871.2
760.5
366.2
333.4
505.0
427.1

924.7
780.2
382.0
339.0
542.8
441.2

963.6
781.2
380.2
328.1
583.4
453.1

932.2
782.9
386.3
342.1
546.0
440.8

947.3
792.6
391.4
347.7
555.9
444.9

945.2
776.4
377.7
327.8
567.5
448.7

961.6
783.8
382.2
331.6
579.4
452.2

955.3
773.5
367.7
320.1
587.6
453.4

992.2
790.9
393.2
332.9
599.0
458.0

1.7
1.0
1.2
1.2
2.1
0.8

-0.7
-1.3
-3.8
-3.5
1.4
0.3

3.9
2.2
6.9
4.0
1.9
1.0

260
261
262
263
266
267

- 9 3 . 2 - 1 2 5 . 2 -125 .7 - 1 1 2 . 1
-99.1 -130.7 -126.0 -109.0
440.4
459.7
487.8
518.7
459.2
486.2
503.7
440.9
599.9
611.9
565 .6
585 .4
585 .2
595.1
602 .8
571.6

-90.4
-92.6
507 .1
496.9

1988

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668
669
622.
618
620.
651.
652.

Balance on goods and services 1
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade 5
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States

Bil. dol

do
do
do
do
do
do
do

A. National income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238
237
239.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars.
Durable goods ..
Durable goods in 1982 dollars.
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
Services
Services in 1982 dollars

239

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars .
Change in business inventories 3
Change in business inventories m 1982 dollars 3
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services

260.
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.

Total
Total m 1982 dollars.
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars .
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars
A5. Foreign Trade

250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.

Net exports of goods and services- 1
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 3
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars.
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest.

290.
295
292
298
293.

Gross saving
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit'
Personal saving rate ;

.do.
.do
.do
.do.
.do.
do

-104.4 -123.0
-137.5 -128.9
428.0
378.4
378.4
427.8
482 . 8
551.1
556.7
515.9

-90.3
-80.0
-100.7
-93.9
536.1
543.8
514.0
517.6
634.1
616 .0
618.3
607 .9

21.7
16.4
4.0
2.2
-0.4
-0.9

10.4
-1.3
5.7
3.4

-10.3
-6.8
1.4
0.7

250
255
252
256

3.1

2 .9

3.1

1.7

253
257

.do.
.do.
do
do.
do.
do.

NA
3437.1 3 6 7 8 . 7 3964.3 3708.0 3802.0 3850.8 3928.8 4000.7
2 5 0 7 . 1 2683.4 2904.9 2702.8 2769.9 2816.4 2874.0 2933.2 2996.3
321.6
324.6
328.8
324.7
326.0
323.9
286.7
312.9
306.8
19.7
19.1
18.4
19.6
18.1
20.5
20.5
19.1
12.4
NA
330.0
316.1
316.2
310.4
323.6
322 .0
326.5
298.9
396.2
415.1
380.6
353.6
358.3
369.5
373.9
331.9
391.5

2.0
2.0
1.5
-6.8
3.3
1.8

1.8
2.1
-2.2
3.1
1.1
4.1

NA
2.2
0.9
-3.0
NA
4.8

220

1.1
1.2
-14.7
22 .1
-0.7

4.9
0.7
14.0
9.6
0.5

NA
NA
13.0
NA
0.4

290
295
292
298
293

597.5

589.5

A6. National Income and Its Components
280
282
284
286
288

A7. Saving
do
do
do
do
Percent

560.4
537.2
561.0
560.0
121.7
104.2
-144.4 -104.9
4.0
3.2

643.0
NA
147.0
-87.9
4.2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk {*) are included in the maior composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA. not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A.
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
ad|ustment.
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L. leading; C, roughly coincident: Lg, lagging: U, unclassified.




603.4
556.8
569.6
570.0
72.6
144 . 0
- 8 5 . 5 -110.7
4.3
2.3

627 . 0
576.4
149.9
-99.2
4.4

634.1
583.3
127.8
-77.1
3.7

665.4
587 . 2
145 .7
-67 .5
4.2

NA
NA
164.6
NA
4.6

" For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere m BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
' Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
'• End-of-penod series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figure? for the
period.
" T h i s series is a weighted 4-terrn moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart Al. Composite Indexes

Index: 1967^1001

„„. . , , , , , .
910. Index of eleven leading i

(series 1,5,8,19,20,23^1,36,99,106,J
•*<•£* ~

930. Index of six lagging indicators
(series 62,77,
101,109)

Zii

./

J
50

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
NOTE-. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags {•*-) in months from reference turning dates.
Va(ues of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

1

10




JANUARY

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
Nov. Mar.
P
T

^
H

: m lindex: 1967=100]
, *z&f

915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36,99)

916. Profitability (series 19,26,80)

940. Ratio, coincident index Wigging index

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

ltd) JANUARY 1989




11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsuperviary workers, manufacturing (hours)

42-,

nui

41-

403938-

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale)

200 -I

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials industries (bil. doLHTLX
12

100908070605040-

30J

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (bil. dd.)

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 7 -

78

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66.

12




JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued

P I P
29. New private housing units authorized by local
building permits (index: 1967-100)

i

.Ar\

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars,
smoothed1:(am. rate, bil. dol.) | l.L.L I

99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

fuT

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

U
l

1 1 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
1.
(am. rate, percent) )t,L,L

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
1
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

ItCII JANUARY 1989




13

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
July May
P T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T

41. Employees on nonagricuKural payrolls (millions)

51. Personal income less transfer Davments in
1982 dollars (ana, rate, bil. dol.)

47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100)
C,C,C

57. Manufacturing and trade sates in
1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

C,C,C

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62. 63, and 65.

14




JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Jan. July July

P

T

Nov

F T P

July May

T

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade i
1982 dollars (ratio)

Labor cost per unit of output,
as percent of trend (percent)

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 8 1 8
8 9 9
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

IICII

JANUARY

1989




15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment

[Marginal Employment Adjustments]
42-

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours) | L.L.1.1

41403938-

21. Average weekly overtime hows of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)

2-1

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) [ L,C,L |

200-.

[Job Vacancies]
1.4-

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number

1.0- .
0,6- '
0.2-

46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=108)
HP
I I

180160-

-,

140-

-C^

1201008060-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

16




JANUARY 1989

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued

in nonagricultural activities (millions)

x

41. Employees on nonagricuttural payroll (milliom)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing
industries (miffions)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

74

75

76

11

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

IICII JANUARY 1989



17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
P

T

| Comprehensive Unemployment |

37. Number of persons unemployed (trillions—inverted safe)

43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scate)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scate)
-TS

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18



JANUARY 1989

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
Nov
p

Mar
T

4400-

[Comprehensive Output and Income)

40003600-

SO. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dot.)
32002800-

2400-

3600
3400320030002800-

52. Personal income in 1982 doHars (arm, rate, fail, dol.)

2600240022002000-

1800-

3000'
2800 •
2600'

51. Personal income tess transfer payments in 1982 dollars
(anr,.rate,&,M)

2400'
22002000'
1800 •

16001400-

53. Wages art salaries in 1982 doHire, raining, manufacturing,
and construct (am. rate,

400J

1962

63

64

65

66

67

6'i

'0

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

BCII

JANUARY 1989




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS— Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income — Continued
f

T

P

140-

(Industrial Production |

fS"^ &U
^^——**~"^

^v

47. Industrial production (inte: 1877 =100) ^/*

**

Xv/

/
100-

160150140130120110-

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1977=100)

100-

\j

~z_

9080-

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(lndeii:19??«=100)

1900'
1800'
17001600'
1500'

fwJI

1400.

49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, biL dd.)
ItjFfJl

1300'
12001100.
1000.
900800-

| Capacity Utilization |
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) |j,c,U|
90-i
8070-

60-J

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent)

90-,

70-

60 J
1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20




JANUARY 1989

HUI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

(Orders and Deliveries!

Manufacturers'
industries (bil.

in 1982 dollars, durable

current dollars,
dd.)

6. Manufacturers
durable goods

•f

8, Manufacturers' new orders in
eoodsjnd materials industries
L,L,L

96. Manufa^jrers' unfilled orders,

goods industries

oiu

/

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

KCII

JANUARY 1989




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued

Consumption and TradeJ
ufacturing ana
1982 dollars (btl.

clEclN

56. Manufacturing and
(oil. dol.)
fc.C.e

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index:;flpfc= 100)

59. Sates of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. dot.)

dollars (bil. dol)

54. Sales of retail stores
Cl

\

A.

. . - HH

55. Personal consumption expenditures,
automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22



JANUARY 1989

l d
t
)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Jan. July
P

| Formation of Business Enterprises |

.
—

_

I

^/"^-X-x*

July

Nov.

P

T

160 140-

•' " - •'*

%v-vi--J f

-X-^*"""^

^^-* fl2)

If7^"

^"£\y~^

120-

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) flJJ

[Business Investment Commitments|

. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars (bil. doi.

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 doll
capital goods industries (bil. dot.)

Manufacturers' new orders «i current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries

^ VV"? '
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

ItCII

JANUARY 1989




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Dec.
P

Ni»
T

[Business Investment Commitments—Cofe

11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bit. dol.)

100. Expenditures in 1982 (Mars for new plant and equi

Q(mrate,Wl. dd) [c]
Business Investment Expenditures

rm rate nil, M)
ij

<*- I11'

S

~\t**

Lrru v

II

^r-rV

" -*ww ^

350-

/*w-^'XSw>^

jS

^^

450400-

J

300-

f
J

250-

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(ann. rate, Ml. *J.) |c,Lg,L

180160140120100-

76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1977=100) [p^Ty]

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

60J

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24




JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

| Business Investment Expenditures—Con.]
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (am. rate, bil. dol.)

88. Producers' durable equipment, Q |C,Lg,C

100-

[ Residential Construction Commitments and Investment |
28. New private housing units started (am. rate, millions)
2.6-,
2.42.22.01.81.61.4-

1.21.00.8 J

29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
(index: 19S7=100)

200i

18016014012010080-

60 J
240-i

Gross private resident fixed investment in
1982 dollars, Q («n rate, bil. dol.)

220200180- ,
160-

ML

140- ,

iZ
V
1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

^
74

75

76

77

78

79

80

120-

381

82

10083

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

JANUARY

1989




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

| Inventory Investment |
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

H
I

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-tenn1)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(an. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on
hand and on order (bit do).; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

86

87

88

1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26




JANUARY 1989

not

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued

800700-

|Inventories on Hand and on Order]
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (bit. dot.)

600500'.

400-

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories
in current dollars (U. dol.) X
|Lg,Lg,Lg|

300-

200130-1
120110100908070-

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods

60-

(MLdoi.) |Lg|Lg[lg

5040-

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
(ratio)

1.81.71.61.51.4300260-

78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order (bil. dol.) \\ u L. I
*S

220180140-

100-

60-

1962

63

6'S

'>5

66

f>';

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

Digitized for JANUARY 1989
FRASER
l d
t
*


27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

98. Change in producer prices for sensitive ciude and intermediate materials
(percent; MCD.moving avg.—6-term)

| Sensitive Commodity Prices |

f w™m
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving avg.—4-term1)

23. Spot market pricf$,Taw industrial materials1 (index: 1967=100)

/"

V^

| Stock Prices]
19. f»Rk prices, 500 commw stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, W. dol.) [L,L,L| X"

[Profits and Profit Margins]

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q
(arm. rate, bil. dol.) njn

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1} placed on the terminal month of the span.
Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

2

28




JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

I Profits and Profit Margins—Con.]
80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

m

280240200160120-

79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
40-<

MET
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic

14-

income, Q (percent)

1210-

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj V
to corporate domestic income, Q (percent)
1
\/

8-

T
/

64-

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents) | L,L,L |
75-

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
sector, Q (index: 1977=100)

102-,

in

989694-

|Cash Flows]

500-

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dd.)
\

400-

300-

200-

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q
(am. rate, bil. dol.)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

100J

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 ana 70.

KCII

JANUARY
 1989


29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share 1

63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q
(index: 1977=100)

m

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product
in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars)

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1977=100)
/V

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,
Q (percent)
|lg,Lg,Lg|

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30




JANUARY

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit

85. Change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCP moving avg.—6-tertn)

t

-"-

102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

104, Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
+ 1.2+ 0.8+ 0.40.0
-0.4J
700650-

105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

z

600550500450270025002300-

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

TO

21001900170015007.5-|

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml, Q (ratio)

7.0
6.5
6.0

5.55.0-

108. Ratio, personal income to morey supply M2 (ratio).
12

/_

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

1.501.451.401.351.301.251.20-

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

ItCII

JANUARY 1989




31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

[Credit Flows]

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and 1% insurance companies (am. rate, bil. dol.)-

112. Net change in business tears (ann. rate, bil. dol.;
MCD moving avg.—6-term)

113. Net change in consumer installment credit (am. rate, bil. dol.;
MCD moving avg.—6-term) [L,L,L|

-20 J

111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) •

+ 100-

1000300-

600500400-

110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markete, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) [L,L,L|
I

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32




JANUARY 1989

ltd

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

[Credit Difficulties]
14. Current liabilities of business failures (mH. doLinverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

•i "vfljM\\pjf ! \\ /n,1
'/vyHi.hi!/ a
39. Percent of consumer instalhient loans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent—inverted scate)

93. Free reserves (bil. doL—inverted scale)
L.U.U

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. dd.)

S"

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

/!

7T

7

4

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

l d
t
) JANUARY 1989




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

I Interest Rates]
119, Federal funds rate (percent)

V

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(percent? |C.Le.te|

116. Yield on new issues or high-grade corporate bonds
(percent) lu,U,U

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

85

87

QB 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34




JANUARY 1989

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
N:,;

,'

Nov.

Mar.

I

P

T

[Interest Rates—Con.
109. Average prime

by baiks (percent

67. Bank rates on stort-teW» business loans, Q (percent)

I Outstanding Debt |
101. Commercial and i
(bit. dol.)

outstanding in 1982 dollars
lolalffl

\

72. Commercial and industrial

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Ml. dol.)

18-

95. Ratio, consumer instattnent credit outstanding to personal income
(percent) |Lg,L«M

161412-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

f>8

c>9

XO

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

ItCII

JANUARY 1989




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

1

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes

| Percent rising]

950. Eleven leading irafcator components' (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—4

lOO-i

50-

0-1

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
lOO-i

50-

0-1

952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—4
100 -i

50-

961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)

lOO-i

50-

962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining: 9-mo. soan—^ 1-mo. span—-)

lOO-i

50-

963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries
(6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)

50-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

30

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36




JANUARY 1989

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued

964. Manufacturers' new
(9-mo. span—, 1

100-

50-

0-

tons in 1982 dollars, 17
moving avg**«, 1-Q spa

965. Newly approved
manufacturing i

80706050403020-

966. Mustrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo.
100-

50-

0-

967. Spot market pnce| 13 raw industrial materials
(9-mo. span-^, 1-fflo. span—.)

100-

50-

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 40-82 industries
(9-mo. span-*^ ferflo. span—-)
lOO-i

50-

0-J
1

960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies

908070605040-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

BCI»

JANUARY 1989




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C |

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued

V

T

I Percent rising)

| Percent Hang]
970, Expenditures for new plant and
equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
(c) Early projections

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
90-1

^-^.-•s>^X4^;.
^*^V

'

^

9080-

'%'

A*>

:S:7

1

y-%

70-

\i-VJ*'

fin-

1

972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)
90-

^

r

,

80-

/\ " " "

\A.t. .A ; «/ S _^/

70-

60-

50-

978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1

1

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

100-,

100-

90-

80-

80-

70-

"%/^^>

90-

70-

' ">\^|tf'

60-

1977 78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1977 78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

60-

88 1989

1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38




JANUARY

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Dec. Nov.
P
T

Jan. July
F T

July
P

Noy.
T

I Percent change at annual rate]

1-month spans
3-month spans

910c. Composite index of eleven leading indicates'

—

920c. Composite index of (our roughly coincident indicators

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators

4/c. Index of industrial production

50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)

48c. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments

+ 30-

+ 20+ 100-

-iO-20J

Sic. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars

5

.^AAk/^^MVw

+ 20-i

+ HI0-

-10-20-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
BCD

JANUARY 1989




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income

IV
12
TV

550050004500400035003000-

200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

25002000-

1500-

223. Personal income in current dollars
(am. rate, bil. dol.)
V

1000 -1

\

22% Disposable personal income in current
Mars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
45004000-

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, bil. dol.) ~

35003000-

4500 40003500 -

213. Final sates in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

3000 -

225. Disposable personal income in 1982
dollars, Q (am. rate, Ml. dd.)
1500-

217. Per capita grass national product in 1982 dollars, Q

18 -i

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40




JANUARY 1989

KCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

Annual rate, bion Mars (current)}.
Personal consumption expenditures—

Annual rate. Mfendolars (1982)|

1962

63

64

6b

66

67

68

S9

74

75

76

77

78

79

SO

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.

ltd*

 1989
JANUARY


41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

[Annualrate, bBon dolars (current))
900800700-

Gross private domestic investment—

600500400-

300-

200-

242. Fixed investment, Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

Annual rate, bBon dolars (1982)1

30. Change in business inventories, Q

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

HS

37

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

42




JANUARY 1989

IUI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Mar.
T

tonual rate, bion dollars (current))

Government purchases of goods and services—

266. State and local
government, Q

100 J

Iflnnualrate, biBondolars (1982)|

267. State and local government, Q

300-

200-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

ItCII

JANUARY 1989




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Annual rate, bBon dolars (current))

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q

Annual rate, bion dollars (1982)|

257. hriparts of goods and services, Q
256. Exports of goods and services, Q

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

-100-1501962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

:")

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44




JANUARY 1989

IN:

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components

Annual rate, bion dofars (current) [_

TOT

450040003500300025002000-

220. National income, Q
1500-

280. Compensation of employees, Q
1000-1
440400360320280240-

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

200180160140120-

if"— 288. Net interest Q

10090807060-

282. Proprietors' income witti inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, q

504030-

20-

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, 0

10-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

urrent data for these series are shown on page 82.

ltd*

JANUARY 1989




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving

Annual rate, bikm dollars (current)
800700600500400-

300250200-

150 -

100 •

60-

40-1

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q

293. Personal saving rate, Q

10-

"
1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46




JANUARY 1989

IM:

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income

70 -i

65-

60-1

268. State and local government purchases
of goods and services. 0

151

265. federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q
5-

249. Residential fixed investment, Q
247. Change in business inventories, Q

Net exports of goods and services, Q
-5-J

[Percent of National Income|
SO-i

64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-

70-

65-1
15-1

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

10-

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
289. Net interest, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

JANUARY 1989




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart Bl. Price Movements

I Index: 1982=1001

310c. hulk* price deflator fsr piss I Percent change at annual rate |
Mti»jp,?i%<.t(i^|t^

15"

310. Implicit price
national product,

10+ 50-

311c. Faed-we^ited price index, gross domestic business product
(1-Qspan)

+ 15+ 10+ 5-

120"

^yt-

0-

_^*~*^J**

| 6-month spans

Producer price indexes—
330c. AllcommotSties

+ 20-

^

^^

7fl-

+ 10-

f

0-

Producer price indexes—

120

330. Ml commodfes

.— . ^

_^—'

\12

-10-

no-

335c. hdustriai commodities

100-

+20-

90

/*^

+ 10-

/

70-

s~S

60'

331c. Crude materials for
fiirthur

120'
110100-

335. Industrial commodities

+ 30"

s,

+ 20+ 10-

V^ ^j\f Vv

90.
8070<

OH
-10-20J

60.

332c. Intermedwte materials, supplies, and components

120'
110100-

331. Crude materials tor further processing
•y

+ 20+ 100-

90-

33i Intermediate materials,'
and components

-10-

333c. Capital equipment
+ 20+ 10-

334. Finished consumer goods
334c. Finished consumer goods

+ 20+ 10-

[Til

0-

AL
1977 78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1977

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

-10-

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




JANUARY 1989

IM:

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
BI

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued

Consumer price indexes—

Percent change at annual rate

320c. All urban consumers (6-month span)

m
322c. Ml urban consumers, food (6-montti span)

t-i(H -=

20-1
10-

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity

[Index: 1977=100]
200-i
180160140-

341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupenc&OQL
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls'

12010080-

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers
on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1
—

220-i
200180160140-

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q ^

120100-

345. Average hourly compensation, all
nonfarm business sectayQ (current dollars)

60J

IT' WJ

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ltd*

JANUARY 1989




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Dec
P

[Wages CoiT]

NI.W
T

Nov.
P

Change in average My eatnjngs o{

Mar
T

production » nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricuftural payrolls1-

IPercentcha^'

340c. Current-dollar earnings

1

f-

",

PI

' JJk

,

I

?
Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
345c. Current-dollar compensation

+ 15-

4-quarter spans

+ 10+ 5-

V——l-quart«sp^Bs (am. rate)

0-

346c. Real compensation
1-quarter spam (am. rate)
+ 5-

4-quarter spans

-5-

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—

348. Average first-year changes, Q (arm. rate)

349. Average changes over life of
contract, Q (am. rate)
Index: 1977=1001

358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
370. Output per hour, all persons,
ousiness sector, u

|Percent change)

370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q

1962 63

64

65

1

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonaiity.
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50




76
2

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable

JANUARY 1989

KCI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

Civilian labor force (millions)

442. Civilian employment (trillions)

Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)—

45V1N&20 years and over

sexes 16-19 years of age

XV ,

452. Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (millions)
!

it! 1

37, Persons unemptoyeo!

445. Females 20 years and over

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions)

. Number of persons employed part time for economic
reasons (millions)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

BCD

JANUARY 1989




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
, D|

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures

[Annual rate, Mbn dolars (current))

502. Federal Govemmerd experxttures, Q
400-

501. Federal Government receipts, Q
200J

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q

900800700-

500400-

511. State and local government receipts, Q —^
300200-

512. State and local government expenditures, Q
100+ 100+ 80+ 60+ 40-

510. State ami local government surplus or deficit, Q

+ 2001962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52




JANUARY 1989

ltd

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Ian. July
F T

July
P

Not/
T
40-

I Advance Measures of Defense Activity] ;*';,

3530-

2520-

fross obligations incurred
avg—6-term)

15-

22201816141210-

240-i
220200ISO160-

1401201001412108-

6-

4-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

ItO) JANUARY 1989




53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

[intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity]
557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment
(index: i?=100)

X^

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products,
(oil. dot)

/

561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders,

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military
assistance (M. dol.)
. ^JT
AjsJT

Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. dol.)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

54




JANUARY 1989

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. |
570. Employment, defense products industries (millions)

2.0-1
1.81.6-

1.41.2-

Defense Department personnel (millions)—
3.5-,

577. Military personnel on active duty
2.0-

578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment
1.0-

400350300-

[National Defense Purchases]

250200-

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
*hnse, Q (am. rate, M. M.)
—

/*
^

150-

100-

50 J

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)

7654-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

KCII

JANUARY 1989




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart El. Merchandise Trade

602. Exports, excluding military akl sKpments (bil. dol.)

604. Exports of domestic a^kuttural products
;
(hLdoL)
~. Exports of nonelectrical macNnery (bil del.)

612. General imports (biL do).)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (Ml. dol.)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56




JANUARY 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS— Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements

I Annual rate, bion defers!
i Excess of receipts

750650-

I Excess of payments

550450-

Goods and services—

350250-

667. Balance on goods ami services, Q

150-

50 J

650 -i
550-

450350250-

622. Balance on mereharHise trade, Q
150-

50140 -i

120-

100-

Income on investment—

80-

60-

40-

652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q
20-

0-"

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

JANUARY 1989




57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production
P

I

P

1 Index: 1977 =1001

[Index: 1977=1

Industrial production—

Industrial production—
15014U-

721. OECO European countries

_,_ (jQ

~-**f~*^^
^

^/S~

130120110 -

'^^^Xy>XV"
100-

QH -

180
170
160
150

140-

728. Japan

130-

722. United Kingdom

140

120 -

130

110 -

120

110-

100-

100-

S

90-

90-

130-

140

727 Haly

'

130

120'

120

**v

110

110

725. West Germany

100

100

90- 1

160'
150
130

/"

723. Canada

n

120

726. France

140

130'
120

110

/- -

100

110

J >

- " '

100-

90

90-

1977

78

79

80

81

82

83

86

87

88

1989

1977

78

79

80

81

82

8,i

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

58




JANUARY 1989 ltd

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Chart F3. Stock Prices

I Percent change at annual rate |

16-month spans I

I Index: 1967=1001

Stock prices—

Consumer prices—

400
350-

300-

250-

19. United States

320c. United States

200-

t-10-

150lOOO-i
900800700

yvv

600500-

1

/w\—
/ V®

746. France+ 20-

735c. West Germany
+ 100-

400

300200-

745. West Germany

\j\.

100

+20+ 100+ 30-

732c. United Kingdom

+ 10 0+ 30+20 + 10 0 + 20 -

733c. Canada
+ 10 01977

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

100-1
1977

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

ltd) JANUARY 1989




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Qj COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

910. Index of
eleven leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29, 32, 36, 99,
106, 111) 1

(1967 = 100)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51.57)

(1967 = 100)

930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95.
101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index 2

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)2

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32. 36,
99)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
111)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

3

( )

1986
January
February
March

174.1
175.0
176.4

162.9
163.4
162.9

140.5
141.1
142.3

115.9
115.8
114.5

108.9
110.2
109.9

103.3
103.3
103.5

117.3
119.0
119.8

142.2
140.3
140.0

April
May
June

178.1
178.5
178.3

165.6
164.3
163.7

140.5
141.4
141.6

117.9
116.2
115.6

110.4
109.5
109.6

103.8
103.5
103.0

119.9
119.7
120.4

140.3
142.4
142.6

July
August
September

179.9
180.3
179.9

164.4
164.8
165.8

141.8
142.2
141.6

115.9
115.9
117.1

109.8
108.8
108.9

103.3
102.9
102.8

120.0
120.4
118.9

144.9
145.6
145.5

October
November
December

181.2
182.7
186.7

165.4
165.8
167.4

143.7
143.4
142.4

115.1
115.6
117.6

108.4
108.6
111.0

102.8
103.6
104.9

117.8
117.4
117.9

147.3
146.8
149.2

January
February
March

185.5
186.0
187.6

165.6
168.2
168.0

144.6
142.1
141.3

114.5
118.4
118.9

108.9
(NA)

104.4
104.6
105.3

119.3
120.8
121.5

148.9
147.0
145.4

April
May
June

187.6
188.6
190.5

168.0
167.6
168.2

141.8
142.0
142.6

118.5
118.0
118.0

105.3
106.0
106.7

121.3
121.3
122.9

144.5
144.1
145.6

July
August
September

190.9
191.7
191.9

169.8
170.6
170.7

141.8
141.6
143.0

119.7
120.5
119.4

107.1
106.4
106.6

124.2
0)126.0
124.7

144.5
144.2
145.4

October
November
December

192.1
190.1
190.8

173.0
172.6
174.4

142.5
143.3
142.7

121.4
120.4
122.2

107.2
107.4
H)108.2

121.7
118.6
118.3

147.1
146.8
146.6

January
February
March

1-189.8
191.4
r!91.7

173.7
r!75.0
176.1

144.7
145.1
r!45.5

120.0
rl20.6
rl21.0

107.1
106.7
106.5

119.0
119.5
119.9

rH6.9
147.9
149.0

April
May
June

r!92.2
190.9
r!93.7

176.0
176.4
177.7

r!46.4
r!46.1
r!47.6

r!20.2
r!20.7
r!20.4

105.5
105.6
105.9

119.5
118.9
120.0

Drl51.7
150.7
151.1

July
August
September

r!92.3
193.4
r!92.7

178.3
178.9
178.9

r!47.2
(-148.1
rl48.0

r-121.1
(-120.8
r-120.9

105.5
r!05.5
105.6

119.9
119.5
(NA)

(-150.3
(-150.1
147.4

October
November
December

r!93.7
193.4
D"194.6

r!80.7
180.8
[H) 5 182.1

r!47.9
149.3
«150.5

r!22.2
r!21.1
p!21.0

rlOS.l
r!04.9
pl05.6

1987

1988

146.9
p!46.6
(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The 'V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; "e". estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
H'alues of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
2
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 940 (130.0) in January 1984, and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii of the March 1987 issue. "Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not
available. 'Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 'Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60




JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^g EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year

L, L, L

L, C, L

L.C.L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1

(Hours)

(Thous.)

U, C, C

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments

and

month
(Hours)

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

(1967 = 100)

(Ratio)
Revised 2

1986

January
February
March

40.8
40.6
40.7

3.5
3.4
3.5

375
384
393

0.522
0.485
0.485

137
137
136

184.60
183.90
184.36

April
June

40.8
40.7
40.6

3.4
3.5
3.4

374
378
378

0.485
0.476
0.502

137
135
143

184.45
184 '.53
184.48

July
August
September

40.6
40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5
3.5

370
379
369

0.491
0.507
0.500

137
138
140

184.78
185.34
185.77

October
November
December

40.7
40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5
3.6

343
342
356

0.501
0.526
0.519

139
145
138

186.12
186.62
186.86

January
February
March

40.9
41.1
41.0

3.6
3.6
3.7

359
361
341

0.512
0.531
0.572

136
140
150

187.56
188.63
188.57

April
June

40.7
41.0
41.0

3.5
3.8
3.7

324
326
327

0.583
0.601
0.614

149
153
152

187.58
189.74
190.02

July
August
September

41.0
41.0
40.6

3.8
3.8
3.7

327
297
286

0.626
0.663
0.661

153
161
158

190.69
191.40
188.46

October
November
December

41.2
41.2
41.0

3.9
3.9
3.8

284
293
312

0.669
0.682
0.662

162
D162
155

192.76
192.99
193.22

January
February
March

41.1
41.0
40.9

3.9
3.7
3.7

351
321
304

0.652
0.673
0.691

153
156
158

193.56
195.04
194.92

April
June

41.2
41.0
41.1

3.9
3.9
3.9

296
307
292

0.701
0.700
0.711

157
160
156

196.33
196.09
197.14

July
August
September

41.1
41.0
41.2

3.9
3.9
3.9

325
298
283

0.714
0.700
0.688

159
160
153

198.25
197.60
198.21

[H>4.0

E>282
291
305

[H>0.735
0.716
pO.731

161
158
p!61

r!99.95
r!98.88
[H)pl99.98

May

1987

May

1988

May

October
November
December

41.2
D41.2
p41.0

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included i
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,

JANUARY 1989




r3.9
p3.9

figures published by the source agency,
page iii.

61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

IJQj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Employment— Continued

U,C,C

42. Number
of persons
engaged ia nonagricultural
activities

(Thous.)
1986

C, C, C

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

L, C, U

40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries

Comprehensive Unemployment

U, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed

(Thous.)

Revised 2

(Percent)

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programsi

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised 2

January
February
March

105,592
105,393
105,644

98,788
98,887
98,973

24,832
24,752
24,688

59.86
59.58
59.73

7,808
8,398
8,347

April
May
June

105,798
106,013
106,463

99,136
99,262
99,170

24,679
24,587
24,499

59.73
59.80
60.01

L, Lg, U

43. Unemployment rate

(Thous.)

Revised 2

(Thous.)

L, Lg, U

8,398
8,443
8,475

Lg, Lg, Lg

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

Lg, Lg, Lg

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

Revised 2

n

(Weeks)

(')

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.9
15.2
14.6

1.8
2.0
1.9

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.8
14.7
15.2

1.8
1.9
1.9

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.2
15.5
15.4

1.9
1.9
2.0

2.7
2.7
2.6

15.2
15.0
15.0

1.9
1.9

2.6
2.6
2.6

14.9
14.5
15.0

2.5
2.4
2.4

15.0
14.8
14.9

6.0
5.9

2.3
2.3
2.2

14.2
14.3
14.2

1.6
1.6
1.6

6.7
7.2
7.1
r7.2

7.2
r7.2

7.0
6.9
7.0

July
August
September

106,684
106,925
106,889

99,457
99,608
99,963

24,476
24,457
24,429

60.05
60.09
60.06

8,298
8,094
8,323

October
November
December

107,073
107,213
107,507

100,120
100,349
100,571

24,428
24,429
24,471

60.07
60.13
60.20

8,252
8,198
7,911

r7.0

January
February
March

107,823
108,066
108,238

100,795
101,016
101,260

24,501
24,533
24,536

60.28
60.39
60.43

7,904
7,848
7,804

r6.6

April
May
June

108,566
109,180
109,065

101,615
101,829
102,078

24,596
24,653
24,684

60.56
60.90
60.72

7,605
7,578
7,360

r6.4

July
August
September

109,377
109,890
109,704

102,430
102,672
102,906

24,788
24,851
24,902

60.83
61.00
60.88

7,271
7,226
7,112

r6.1

October
November
December

109,998
110,320
110,528

103,371
103,678
104,001

25,025
25,123
25,201

61.01
61.09
61.19

7,204
7,067
6,961

6.0
5.9
5.8

2.1
2.1
2.1

14.0
14.1
14.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

January
February
March

110,799
111,073
110,948

104,262
104,729
105,020

25,180
25,271
25,330

61.29
61.36
61.24

6,980
6,892
6,807

5.8
5.7
5.6

2.3
2.3
2.2

14.2
14.1
13.8

1.4
1.4
1.4

April
May
June

111,473
111,293
111,880

105,281
105,489
106,057

25,435
25,466
25,592

61.49
61.31
61.58

6,668
6,800
6,523

r5.5

2.1
2.1
2.1

13.5
13.8
13.2

1.3
1.3

July
August
September

111,974
112,061
112,194

106,271
106,425
106,737

25,663
25,639
25,648

61.54
61.60
61.64

6,624
6,797
6,614

5.4
5.6
5.4

2.1
2.1
2.0

13.5
13.5
13.5

October
November
December

112,335
112,709
0)112,816

r!06,973
r!07,377
0)pl07,656

r25,743
r25,844
0>p25,893

61.69
0)61.85
61.83

0)6,518
6,563
6,554

5.3
5.4
0)5.3

1.9
0)1.9
2.0

6.9
6.7

rl.8

1987

6.6
6.5
6.3
r6.2

1.8
1.8
1.7
rl.8

1.7
1.7

1988

5.6
r5.4

13.4

0)12.6
12.8

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
'Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

62




JANUARY 1989

rl.3

1.3
rl.3

1.3
1.3
1.2
0)1.2

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

fj£

Minor Economic
Process

Timing Class

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C, C, C

C.C.C

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars
Year
and
month

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

52. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c, c, c

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C,C,C

47. Index of
industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

C.C.C

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

(1977 = 100)

C, L, L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1977 = 100)

C, C, C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986
January
February
March

3,719.3

3,439.3
3,459.8
3,483.0

3,022.2
3,053.7
3,079.6

2,575.6
2,604.1
2,626.5

540.3
539.8
548.0

126.4
125.5
123.9

129.8
128.9
127.4

128.6
128.2
127.3

1,604!?

April
May
June

3,71l!6

3,516.5
3,514.5
3,521.0

3,109.2
3,093.8
3,088.6

2,654.6
2,638.3
2,632.5

545.2
544.9
541.4

124.7
124.3
124.1

128.5
127.7
126.9

128.9
129.7
130.2

1,598!6

July
August
September

3,72l!3

3,532.9
3,545.4
3,561.7

3,090.9
3,093.7
3,091.8

2,629.0
2,636.0
2,634.2

542.5
544.0
542.7

124.8
124.9
124.5

128.1
127.9
128.4

130.6
131.1
130.3

1,595!3

October
November
December

3,734!7

3,579.6
3,595.5
3,623.6

3,101.9
3,107.6
3,126.5

2,643.2
2,649.2
2,666.8

548.2
544.9
545.0

125.3
125.7
126.8

128.6
129.0
129.7

131.2
131.7
133.4

1,597.8

January
February
March

3,776!7

3,641.3
3,683.5
3,703.4

3,114.9
3,142.9
3,143.8

2,655.8
2,682.5
2,685.4

543.0
542.4
545.6

126.2
127.1
127.4

129.3
130.8
131.5

132.7
132.9
133.7

1,616!2

April
May
June

3,823!6

3,725.0
3,736.3
3,747.1

3,146.1
3,142.4
3,138.3

2,687.1
2,678.7
2,678.7

539.8
541.7
542.1

127.4
128.2
129.1

130.9
131.4
132.0

134.6
135.7
136.9

1 5 645*.6

July
August
September

3,865.3

3,778.6
3,803.7
3,820.8

3,159.4
3,167.1
3,162.9

2,698.7
2,707.8
2,705.4

542.5
544.3
546.5

130.6
131.2
131.0

133.5
133.8
133.7

138.5
138.8
138.6

l,677!s

October
November
December

3,923!6

3,897.2
3,884.1
3,939.0

3,212.9
3,194.2
3,236.6

2,754.2
2,736.8
2,778.2

549.0
551.3
549.5

132.5
133.2
133.9

136.8
136.7
137.3

138.1
139.6
141.3

1,713!9

January
February
March

3,956!i

3,921.8
3,946.7
3,985.9

3,214.6
3,235.0
3,251.1

2,745.6
2,764.0
2,776.3

550.2
552.7
559.4

134.4
134.4
134.7

137.9
138.4
138.8

141.4
141.1
141.7

1,748.1

April
May
June

3,985.2

4,001.0
4,021.4
4,044.9

3,242.3
3,243.1
3,254.1

2,770.0
2,773.7
2,784.6

556.7
557.0
560.7

135.4
136.1
136.5

139.7
141.5
141.7

142.3
142.1
142.6

1,762.4

July
August
September

4,009.4

4,075.3
4,091.8
4,114.7

3,265.5
3,270.8
3,270.8

2,795.1
2,799.8
2,802.1

562.4
560.7
562.3

138.0
138.5
138.6

142.9
143.2
143.8

144.6
145.1
145.3

1,768*.9

October
November
December

[H)p4,029.2

r4,178.2
r4, 170.0
[H>p4, 207.1

r3,305.5
r3,293.8
[H>p3,315.3

r2, 835.0
r2,822.7
[H)p2,844.3

[H>r570.0
r566.6
p566.1

139.3
r!39.8
E)pl40.2

1987

1988

r!44.4
r!45.0
i>pl45.5

r!46.6
r!46.7
H>pl47.1

[H>pl,770.3

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

JANUARY 1989




63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

H

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Continued

Qj CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Capacity Utilization

L, C, U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing

Orders and Deliveries

L,C, U

84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
7. Constant
(1982) dollars

6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, L, L

(Bil. dot.)

(Bil. dot.)

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, Lg, U

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries1©
(Percent
reporting)

1986

January
February
March

80.7
80.2
79.2

80.5
79.8
78.5

102.61
101.12
100.45

95.98
94.59
93.88

82.62
80.40
78.35

1.92
1.75
3.54

370.35
372.10
375.64

46
48
50

April
May
June

79.9
79.6
79.3

78.7
78.3
78.0

99.04
97.27
97.29

92.38
90.65
90.59

81.10
78.36
80.38

-2.12
-1.63
-2.62

373.52
371.89
369.27

50
55
50

July
August
September

79.7
79.6
79.4

78.1
77.9
77.7

99.72
96.40
102.20

92.77
89.59
94.89

79.04
79.86
82.49

-0.13
-2.22

369.13
366.91
368.93

54
51
52

October
November
December

79.5
79.6
80.2

77.9
78.5
79.1

100.06
100.74
104.53

92.56
93.02
96.52

81.32
79.47
84.68

-0.44

368.49
369.83
370.70

54
56
56

January
February
March

79.6
80.0
80.3

78.7
78.7
78.7

97.34
102.40
104.78

89.71
94.38
96.40

79.69
84.12
84.78

-3.28
-1.26
1.19

367.42
366.16
367.35

55
52
55

April
May
June

80.2
80.4
80.8

79.1
79.3
79.8

107.64
107.92
108.77

98.93
99.01
99.70

83.80
83.47
85.72

4.55
5.26
4.24

371.90
377.16
381.40

57
60
57

July
August
September

81.5
81.5
81.3

80.6
81.1
81.2

109.94
106.99
109.68

100.49
97.44
99.34

84.03
83.87
85.94

6.04
2.58
1.30

387.44
390.02
391.32

62
60
69

October
November
December

82.0
82.2
82.6

82.1
82.9
83.6

112.02
111.96
113.19

101.28
100.87
101.61

86.76
85.78
86.79

3.71
3.67
2.01

395.04
398.71
400.72

70
66
71

January
February
March

82.7
82.6
82.7

83.0
82.3
82.4

113.07
114.16
113.06

100.78
101.56
100.41

83.26
85.44
85.35

3.94
4.33
0.32

404.66
408.99
409.31

68
66
69

April
May
June

82.9
83.3
83.3

82.9
83.0
83.2

116.84
115.37
125.44

103.39
101.74
110.33

85.78
87.83
87.83

4.32
0.62
8.92

413.62
414.24
423.16

62
66
70

July
August
September

84.0
84.0
84.0

84.4
84.3
84.1

116.11
122.81
119.32

101.76
r!07.25
103.58

85.20
r87.64
87.85

2.99
4.94
1.29

426.15
431.09
432.38

68
64
66

r!22.79
r!22.94
JH>P130.85

r!06.59
r!06.08
(H)pll2.51

87.88
r89.52
H>p92.97

r436.73
r439.78
H)p446.16

60
56
56

2.02

1.34
0.87

1987

1988

October
November
December

84.3

r84.3
(H)p84.4

r84.5
r85.0
H)p85.0

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
The following series reached their high values before 1986:

64




r4.35
r3.04
p6.38

series 25 (9.31) and series 32 (72) in March 1984.

JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B 1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

c, c, c

C, C, C

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

C, L, C

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

(1977 = 100)

C, L, U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

H

Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued
|

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

L, C, C

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

L, L, L

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment '(u)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(IstQ
1966=100)

L, L, L

12. Index of
net business
formation

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1986
January
February
March

426,129
419,385
414,543

412,651
410,176
409,478

123.6
122.9
121.4

117,524
116,599
116,184

108,718
108,971
109,504

124.1

95.6
95.9
95.1

119.3
120.8
121.5

57,580
58,799
58,365

April
May
June

420,984
416,635
421,122

418,301
414,113
418,444

123.8
123.8
123.7

116,905
118,259
118,314

110,810
111,670
111,407

129.2

96.2
94.8
99.3

122.4
120.7
120.3

58,937
58,257
57,558

July
August
September

420,333
422,468
434,978

417,515
420,580
432,602

124.5
125.0
123.6

118,821
120,308
127,115

111,779
112,754
118,467

|H>151.9

97.7
94.9
91.9

120.7
119.3
120.4

58,002
56,541
58,002

October
November
December

426,853
427,284
438,060

423,097
424,320
433,420

124.8
125.0
126.6

120,778
120,470
126,011

112,877
112,589
116,893

139.8

95.6
91.4
89.1

119.7
118.3
121.9

57,410
56,924
0)65,318

January
February
March

425,169
442,039
442,633

420,569
434,812
433,419

125.5
126.4
126.7

117,246
123,292
123,680

108,360
113,424
113,053

i2o!i

90.4
90.2
90.8

118.1
120.5
122.0

55,071
58,868
60,248

April
May
June

444,300
446,897
451,532

432,710
431,990
435,135

125.5
127.3
127.2

124,609
124,797
126,461

113,384
113,041
114,032

127!7

92.8
91.1
91.5

120.7
119.8
120.3

57,736
56,627
57,559

July
August
September

453,508
458,052
462,889

436,259
438,850
442,296

128.9
129.4
127.7

127,122
129,448
128,211

114,524
116,201
114,679

144.4

93.7
94.4
93.6

120.4
121.5
122.8

57,500
57,773
57,746

October
November
December

462,938
r462,248
r464,306

441,184
r437,814
r439,676

129.0
129.4
129.8

127,036
r!27,456
r!28,527

113,324
rl!3,597
rl!4,552

128'.6

89.3
83.1
86.8

121.8
122.8
123.2

r55,559
55,901
54,451

January
February
March

464,772
468,675
476,922

440,040
444,041
449,906

131.2
131.3
131.2

128,769
130,121
132,259

114,767
116,491
117,773

133*.9

90.8
91.6
94.6

124.0
124.0
E)124.8

55,782
57,574
60,426

April
May
June

477,768
481,874
488,787

448,136
448,952
452,240

131.9
132.7
133.0

131,717
132,833
133,617

116,667
117,137
117,517

139.8

91.2
94.8
94.7

122.4
124.3
123.4

54,821
58,379
54,908

July
August
September

489,235
495,482
495,418

449,895
453,536
451,425

134.2
135.0
134.8

134,342
134,759
134,341

117,741
117,796
116,717

139.2

93.4
97.4
97.3

122.7
123.9
r!24.1

57,277
59,649
r56,126

October
November
December

r501,906
[H)p503,835
(NA)

r456,315
[H>p457,227
(NA)

r!36.7
r!36.5
[H>pl37.2

r!36,560
r!37,809
0>pl38,025

rl!8,234
E>rll9,315
pl!9,296

p!40.4

94.1
93.0
91.9

r!24.6
r!23.2
p!23.9

56,557
p53,675
(NA)

1987

1988

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
'Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984.

ltd)

JANUARY 1989




65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

U FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Business Investment Commitments

L, L, L

L,L,L

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

10. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

L, L, L

(Bil. dol.)

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings x 2

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

U, Lg, U

L, C , U

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space 3

(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

(Bil. dol.)

C, Lgr Lg

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations 2

(Bil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

30.19
32.52
31.14

32.16
35.95
33.88

25.70
27.36
26.84

28.13
31.33
30.05

72.89
82.65
73.01

6.77
7.68
6.78

23.39

April
May
June

30.64
30.10
30.29

32.90
32.88
33.67

25.86
25.67
25.61

28.66
28.95
29.53

82.17
78.06
76.57

7.63
7.25
7.11

19.99

July
August
September

30.64
30.02
31.05

33.22
33.15
33.81

26.07
25.53
26.35

29.18
29.18
29.66

73.43
76.48
76.51

6.82
7.10
7.11

20!20

October
November
December

31.76
32.03
33.50

34.03
35.11
36.56

27.31
27.31
28.36

30.07
30.91
31.97

73.54
83.00
76.45

6.83
7.71
7.10

22!l6

January
February
March

31.71
32.18
31.91

34.45
35.41
35.08

27.20
27.28
26.88

30.47
31.10
30.66

80.75
73.72
77.18

7.50
6.85
7.17

2l!44

April
May
June

33.44
34.97
35.54

37.33
38.97
39.40

28.73
30.63
29.75

33.19
35.17
34.35

78.14
76.74
84.28

7.26
7.13
7.83

32!26

7.87
7.87
7.99

29.56

92.*22

85.*77

80.71

69'.72

1987

69.17

74.64

July
August
September

37.50
34.89
34.54

41.82
39.17
39.15

32.28
29.85
29.39

37.29
34.81
34.69

84.76
84.70
85.96

October
November
December

35.50
35.42
r38.65

40.29
39.83
r42.99

30.22
30.66
33.03

35.70
35.73
38.14

82.21
75.90
84.37

7.64
7.05
7.84

35.91

37.67
38.90
36.40

42.89
43.91
41.35

33.87
33.82
31.92

39.63
39.59
37.56

69.43
91.89
73.91

6.45
8.54
6.87

30.85

37.76
36.04
40.19

43.77
41.54
45.67

33.75
31.52
35.46

40.33
37.72
41.68

69.80
69.98
75.49

6.48
6.50
7.01

[H>r40.69

July
August
September

40.56
[H>43.74
39.15

r45.99
!>r49.36
r43.61

36.21
E>38.81
34.86

42.34
E>45.22
40.02

81.82
76.46
75.29

7.60
7.10
6.99

p39'.09

October
November
December

r38.45
r39.92
p43.16

r43.35
r44.40
p46.79

r34.62
r35.78
p38.58

r40.16
r40.95
p42.97

69.59
68.60
81.80

6.46
6.37
7.60

74.55

78.06

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

78.71

r87*.46

p92*.55
(NA)
(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 2The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 9 (93.19 square feet and 8.66
square meters) in September 1985, and series 97 (99.88) in 2d quarter 1985. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

66




JANUARY 1989

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

y] FIXED CAPITAL

Minor Economic
Process

Timing Class

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

INVESTMENT-Continued

61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, U

69. Machinery
and equipment

ness equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars

76. Index of
industrial pro-

business
construction
expenditures

C, Lg, C

86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L, L

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
thous.)

29. Index of
new private

89. Gross private residential

authorized by
local building
permits l

28. New private housing
units startedl

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

in 1982 dollars

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

381*33

384.62

392.50
399.19
393.40

142.1
141.3
139.2

446.8

145.1

301.7

1,938
1,869
1,873

147.3
140.9
141.9

185.5

April
May
June

377*91

375.87

395.79
384.77
391.05

139.6
138.6
137.2

432*8

126.7

306.1

1,947
1,847
1,845

148.2
143.3
142.7

195.7

July
August
September

375.66

369*2i

385.28
387.20
381.72

139.4
139.1
139.6

425.6

121 .7

303.9

1,789
1,804
1,685

141.9
137.6
134.4

199*0

October
November
December

383*05

375.34

391.92
388.64
394.05

139.4
138.8
139.5

427*3

123.8

303*5

1,683
1,630
1,837

133.6
131.1
151.8

0)199.7

January
February
March

376*73

370.67

380.86
390.75
389.03

138.6
141.7
141.9

418*2

121.0

297.2

1 ,804
1*809
1,723

134.9
134*6
134.1

198.4

April
May
June

380.66

374*67

394.44
393.13
402.72

142.1
141.7
144.2

434*8

120.9

313.8

1,635
1,599
1,583

127.3
119*9
122.7

197.6

July
August
September

394.54

391.18

412.08
411.20
424.48

145.6
145.6
146.3

462.8

128.0

334*7

1,594
1,583
1,679

120.4
120.7
119.7

192.1

October
November
December

406*82*

403.05

416.93
416.55
423.85

148.7
148.3
149.8

464'8

132~1

332.7

1 ,538
1,661
1,399

lie's

1987

115.9

192.7

109.4

1988

January
February
March

412.02

408.91

430.32
429.21
436.50

151.2
152.4
153.3

473.4

124*0

349.4

1,382
1 ,519
1,529

99 5
114.0
117*7

189*5

April
May
June

426.94

424."07

442.03
451.37
452.12

154.6
156.9
158.1

490.2

125.0

365.1

1,584
1,393
1,465

115.6
114.5
119.1

189.6

July
August
September

0)436.01

0)431*62

r454.76
r459.38
r459.64

159.3
160.2
160.8

0)495.0

125.8

0)369.2

1,477
1,461
1,467

113.2
116.7
111.2

191.6

October
November
December

a445.73

a44l".35

0)r460.87
p459.02
(NA)

r!59.9
r!60.9
DP161.1

p49o"4

p366.4

rl,533
rl,558
pi ,524

120.9
120.9
124.9

pl97*4

pl24~0

See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
'The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 87 (151.4) in 2d quarter 1985, and series 28 (2,260) and series 29
(158.5) in February 1984.
Anticipated expenditures for 1989:
1st quarter, 466.76; 2d quarter, 473.55.
"Anticipated expenditures for
1989:
1st quarter, 462.28; 2d quarter, 469.61.

JANUARY 1989




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^j INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year

Inventory Investment

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars 1

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars 1
Smoothed2

Actual

and

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

Inventories on Hand and on Order

31. Change
in mfg. and

trade inventories

month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order

Lg, Lg. Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars

70. Constant
(1982) dollars

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
mfg. and

trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars

L, Lg, Lg

78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order

(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

L, L, L

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

(Bil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

45.7

April

23.6

May

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

3.0

24.56
27.68
52.16

15.84
20.58
29.61

9.0

-0.60

-3.6
22.1

1.35

25.76
-40.28
10.64

35.00
23.87
5.63

-30.7

21.02
-20.50
-21.92

-2.08
0.42
-1.71

30.0
-9.1
-18.2

7.2
8.8

-0.82

656.91
656.62
658.46

639.74
641.72
646.48

105.25
104.86
104.60

-1.21
-1.01
-1.15

659.06
656.50
657.24

649.07
647.07
648.17

104.54
104.34
103.52

1.55

-0.58
-0.70

659.74
658.98
657.46

650.88
649.15
646.21

103.92
103.36
102.43

1.56

102.42
103.44
102.60

1.53

1.54

1.24

238.30
239.65
238.83

1.55
1.56

H>1.58

237.62
236.61
235.46

1.56
1.55

234.89
234.19
235.43

1.54
1.49

19.81
-8.17
1.94

-7.34
-5.48
0.55

25.3
-6.2
-47.8

-0.86

0.91
1.92

659.57
659.05
655.06

647.49
646.69
644.74

34.87
7.33
46.87

7.04
12.13
22.20

74.2
19.2
37.7

-1.06
-0.59
1.82

661.25
662.85
665.99

649.35
649.72
651.98

103.41
103.02
103.23

1.50

236.33
235.74
237.56

27!s

19.90
54.35
46.36

27.20
32.54
40.29

26.5
76.0
38.9

2.82
1.09
2.71

668.20
674.54
677.78

652.61
656.22
657.99

102.94
103.23
102.57

1.51
1.52
1.51

240.38
241.47
244.17

July
August
September

is!6

33.66
-5.96
46.16

42.50
34.74
24.65

40.1
13.1
53.9

2.76
1.75
2.20

681.12
682.21
686.70

659.44
658.09
660.52

103.84
104.66
104.04

1.51

246.94
248.68
250.88

October
November
December

67.1

82.87
43.50
64.86

32.82
49.27
60.63

0)96.9
r63.9
r86.7

2.18
1.02
1.04

694.78
r700.10
707.33

666.42
669.88
674.91

105.04
105.86
106.82

1.51
1.53

rl.54

253.06
254.08
255.11

66.6

40.56
47.59
11.38

56.69
50.32
42.09

51.1
37.9
30.0

3.81
0.25
1.32

711.59
714.75
717.25

679.86
683.23
684.90

107.42
108.16
108.08

1.55
1.54
1.52

258.92
259.18
260.49

35.3

5.05
23.10
18.18

27.26
17.26
14.31

45.2
52.4
66.4

2.52
2.83
2.21

721.02
725.38
730.92

686.17
687.95
689.75

108.09
108.43
109.02

1.53
1.53
1.53

263.01
265.83
268.04

-10.5

234.57
235.47
237.40

1.52
1.49

1987

January
February
March

29.8

April
May

June

1.49

1.50
1.49

1988

January
February
March
April
May

June
July
August
September

39.5

-5.23
r38.10
r28.57

13.73
r!4.52
r!8.75

59.7
95.5
76.9

1.43
1)3. 98
2.48

735.89
743.85
750.26

689.44
693.33
696.11

109.82
110.78
111.62

1.53
1.53
1.54

269.47273.45
275.93

October
November
December

p29.2

r7.43
p!8.34
(NA)

r22.59
p21.41
(NA)

r3.9
p35.7
(NA)

rl.90
p-0.46
(NA)

r750.59
E>p753.56
(NA)

r697.55
H)p699.39
(NA)

rl!2.07
DP112.67
(NA)

rl.53
pi. 53
(NA)

B)r277.82
p277.36
(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
l
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 30 (83.4) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (91.94) in February
1984, and series 36 smoothed (79.42) in May 1984. 2This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the
terminal month of the span.




JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
|

Minor Economic
Process

Timing Class

Year
and
month

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

L,L, L

98. Change in
producer prices
for sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials 1
(Percent)

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials 2@

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

L, L, L

U, L, L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed 3

Actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

18. Constant
(1982) dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, C, L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj 1 4
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)

1987

0.35
0.26
0.88

252.8
247.2
246.3

0.76
-0.57
0.19

1.08
0.51
0.16

264.51
280.93
292.47

13515

izils

172lo

157.6

4*.8

-0.26
2.52
1.78

253.8
272.6
276.4

0.85
|H>3.00
1.00

0.14
0.75
1.48

289.32
289.12
301.38

141.1

125J

172'.6

157.0

slo

July
August
September

1.92
1.55
3.38

284.2
288.3
292.4

1.53
0.98
1.58

EDI. 73
1.51
1.27

310.09
D329.36
318.66

149.5

133.2

18211

issls

5l2

October
November
December

2.57
1.44
0.07

294.6
292.0
293.1

1.13
0.26
0.17

1.30
1.11
0.76

280.16
245.01
240.96

145.7

128.2

17919

162li

il7

0.67
0.52
1.11

292.5
288.9
292.3

0.17
-0.17
0.77

0.36
0.13
0.16

250.48
258.13
265.74

14SL4

13L2

179li

leils

sis

143!l

18312

163.7

5*.5

14816

185.2

164.1

sli

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June

-1.02
0.15
0.22

297.3
301.6
309.5

0.08
0.51
0.84

0.24
0.34
0.46

262.61
256.12
270.68

16217

July
August
September

1.77
-0.22
-0.07

309.0
309.9
306.4

0.58
0.00
-0.33

0.56
0.56
0.28

269.05
263.73
267.97

E>169li

October
November
December

-0.51
0.15
0.29

305.0
309.7
0)317.2

-0.33
0.50
0.75

-0.07
-0.14
0.13

277.40
271.02
276.51

(NA)

(NA)

1989
5

January
February
March

323.9

6

284.28

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
'The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983; series 18 (149.4) and series 22 (6.9) in 1st
quarter 1984; and series 79 (204.0) and series 80 (196.0) in 1st quarter 1986. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may
not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3See footnote 2 on page 68. "See footnote 1 on page 70.
5
Average for January 3 through 27. 6Average for January 4, 11, 18, and 25.

JANUARY 1989




69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

[
U PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

IU.L

L, L, L

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income 1 2

15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins— Continued

(Cents)

L, L, L

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector

L, L , L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

L, L, L

Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector

35. Constant
(1982) dollars

(1977 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data

Actual data
as a percent
of trend

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income

(Percent)

1986
January
February
March

s!i

3!?

0)100.1

373!)

375*.7

163.3

o.iio

136.7
137.2
D140.2

99.6
100.0
0)102.2

72*.8

April
May
June

s!i

i!i

99.9

373.'l

374.3

164.9

o.ni

137.5
138.1
138.3

100.2
100.7
100.8

72.6

July
August
September

y.9

s!s

99.7

379.6

380 ! 5

167.3

0.722

137.5
138.1
138.2

100.2
100.7
100.7

73.0

October
November
December

l'.2

3^5

98.5

386.2

385! 7

169.6

0.725

139.2
138.0
136.9

101.5
100.6
99.8

B>73.4

January
February
March

eis

4.6

98.8

385! 9

386!i

170'.5

0.730

138.1
137.6
137.9

100.7
100.3
100.5

73.0

April
May
June

6.5

4.9

99!i

393!9

393 '.8

170.8

0.730

136.9
136.6
136.2

99.8
99.6
99.3

73'.6

July
August
September

6.*7

sis

99.9

404! 2

404.3

171.1

0.729

135.2
135.8
137.4

98.5
99.0
100.1

72.9

October
November
December

b'.Z

i!4

99.1

402.4

402! 6

173.5

0.738

136.4
136.5
135.6

99.4
99.5
98.8

72!9

January
February
March

o!e

0X3

99.1

407 '.3

405!6

173.5

0.736

135.9
136.4
137.9

99.1
99.4
100.5

73!!

April
May
June

6.4

5.8

98*. 7

426!8

418!7

177.1

0.747

136.8
136.4
137.2

99.7
99.4
100.0

73*.2

July
August
September

6.1

p5.9

98 '.7

0)425'.7

.0)423'. 7

0)0.758

136.5
136.3
136.8

99.5
99.3
99.7

73*.3

October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

r!38.5
r!37.6
p!37.3

rlOO.9
rlOO.3
plOO.l

(NA)

1987

1988

0)179*. 1

(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
Series 81 reached its high value (8.6) in 3d quarter 1985.

X

70



JANUARY 1989

ito

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q MONEY AND CREDIT

Minor Economic
Process

Timing Class

Money

L, L, L

85. Change
in money
supply Ml 1

L, C, U

102. Change
in money
supply M21

L, L, L

104. Change
in total liquid
assets1

Velocity of Money

L, L, L

105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars

L, L, I

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

Year

and

C,C, C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1

Credit Flows

C, Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2

month

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil.

dol.)

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

ILL

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1

L L, L

112. Net change
in business loans

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1987

0)126.83
-19.49
-33.82

January
February
March

0.83
-0.01
0.40

0.71
0.05
0.18

0.70
0.30
-0.03

633.8
631.0
630.8

2,450.3
2,441.0
2,434.9

5.997

1.288
1.302
1.307

April
May
June

1.43
0.24
-0.59

0.46
0.06
0.09

0.38
0.67
0.35

637.0
636.4
631.0

2,435.6
2,428.8
2,424,7

6.024

1.308
1.311
1.314

-5.56
-7.10

July
August
September

0.20
0.39
0.13

0.23
0.40
0.40

0.07
0.54
0.61

630.7
630.5
629.2

2,424,1
2,423.4
2,424.9

6.124

1.322
1.326
1.326

-51.73
-34.25
22.25

October
November
December

1.16
-0.46
-0.25

0.48
0.07
0.16

0.69
0.29
0.05

634.4
629.9
627.2

2,428.3
2,423.8
2,423.6

1.346
1.341
1.358

38.02

e.igi

r2,435.7
2,449.0
2,454.5

6.213

1.341
1.340
1.343

54.84
65.56
10.39

(NA)

3.54

5.00

61.02

1988

January
February
March

1.07
0.09
0.45

rO.84
rO.71
0.72

rO.88

0.72
0.61

631.8
631.3
631.0

April
May
June

0.94
0.01
0.82

0.79
0.38
0.48

0.99
0.72
0.37

633.8
631.8
634.9

2,461.6
2,462.8
H>2,466.5

6.246

1.338
1.339
1.341

118.04
10.86
17.81

July
August
September

0.75
0.03

0.95
0.45
0.15

H) 6 3 7 . 1
634.6
r632.5

2,464.0
2,458.7
r2,452.9

6.274

r-0.01

0.31
0.19
rO.09

1.347
1.350
1.356

20.33
rlO.51
r-23.15

rO.14
0.03

rO.ll
rO.57

0.43
pO.76

pO.41

(NA)

2,445.7
r2,451.8
p2,453.9

p6.357

pO.52

630.8
629.0
p630.2

October
November
December

Drl.376
rl.365
pi. 372

r26.17
r23.77
p!08.26

1989
2

January
February
March

0.14

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
lr
The following series reached their high values before 1987:
series 85 (2.69) in December 1986, series 102 (2.66) in January
series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 107 (7.035) in 4th quarter 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984.
2
Average for weeks ended January 2, 9, and 16.

JANUARY 1989




1983,

71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Credit Flows— Continued

L, L, L

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstandingl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties

L, U

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets1
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©

(Mil. dol.)

L,L, L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over 1
(Percent)

Interest Rates

L,U,U

L, Lg, U

93. Free
reserves x ©

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate1©

(Percent)

C, Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills1©

(Percent)

1987

-10.39
31.74
22.08

7.0
1.9
2.1

381,680

3,220.7
3,586.0
3,249.5

2.43
2.40
2.28

488
656
388

580
556
527

6.43
6.10
6.13

5.45
5.59
5.56

April
May
June

55.44
13.93
79.74

6.7
4.6
7.9

3,222.5
2,488.5
3,332.4

2.36
2.43
2.35

-166

606,320

993
1,035
776

6.37
6.85
6.73

5.76
5.75
5.69

July
August
September

67.61
56.14
57.46

1.6
4!l
8.9

562,548

2,036.1
1,968.2
2,967.2

2.34
2.37
2.35

89
385
-147

672
647
940

6.58
6.73
7.22

5.78
6.00
6.32

October
November
December

47.39
21.59
51.54

9.1
5.8

613,960

r3,004.2
pi, 610. 6
p5,512.2

2.66
2.54
2.47

186
298
252

943
625
777

7.29
6.69
6.77

6.40
5.81
5.80

504,596

p3, 894.1
p4,625.5
p3, 292.0

2.44
2.32
2.19

213
737
-823

1,082
396
1,752

6.83
6.58
6.58

5.90
5.69
5.69

621,400

p3,065.6
p2,316.5
p2,453.4

2.31
2.32
2.34

-2,134
-1,538
-2,195

2,993
2,578
3,083

6.87
7.09
7.51

5.92
6.27
6.50

p574,604

p4,582.8
p2,291.2
p3, 533.0

2.45
2.38
2.42

-2,433
-2,288
-1,867

3,440
3,241
2,839

7.75
8.01
8.19

6.73
7.02
7.23

pi, 825. 5

(NA)

-1,237

2,299
2,861
pi, 716

8.30
8.35
8.76

7.34
7.68
8.09

January
February
March

11.4

44
414

1988

January
February
March

74.83
60.42
62.29

13.2
10.1

April
May
June

46.21
35.78
96.64

12.5
r9.7

July
August
September

43.45
63.89

rlO.7

October
November
December

r46.87
p53.75

0.02

(NA)

6.3
6.2

r7.9
r2.7
r7.9
p6.4
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

r-1,742
p-676

1989

January
February
March

2

3

9.12

8.29

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (22.6) in June 1984, series 110 (927,324) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1985; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series
94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended January 4, 11, 18, and 25. 3 Average for
weeks ended January 5, 12, 19, and 26.

72




JANUARY

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Qj MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Timing Class . . . . . .

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds1©

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1®

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average1©

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Outstanding Debt

Interest Rates— Continued

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages1©

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks1©

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)

1987
January
February
March

8.59
8.58
8.68

7.60
7.69
7.62

6.61
6.61
6.66

8.79
8.81
8.94

7!46

7.50
7.50
7.50

570,967
573,612
575,452

369,837
368,213
365,395

367,997
364,567
361,062

15.68
15.57
15.54

April
May
June

9.36
9.95
9.64

8.31
8.79
8.63

7.55
8.00
7.79

10.02
10.61
10.33

8.24

7.75
8.14
8.25

580,072
581,233
587,878

365,690
365,227
364,635

358,871
355,972
354,015

15.57
15.56
15.69

July
August
September

9.70
10.09
10.63

8.70
8.97
9.58

7.72
7.82
8.26

10.38
10.55
11.22

8*.20

8.25
8.25
8.70

593,512
598,190
602,978

360,324
357,470
359,324

348,139
344,383
346,503

15.71
15.73
15.78

October
November
December

10.80
10.09
10.22

9.61
8.99
9.12

8.70
7.95
7.96

10.90
10.76
10.63

8^47

9.07
8.78
8.75

606,927
608,726
613,021

362,492
362,909
367,994

348,215
348,281
353,161

15.57
15.67
15.56

9.81
9.43
9.68

8.82
8.41
8.61

7.69
7.49
7.74

10.17
9.86
10.28

8*.37

8.75
8.51
8.50

619,258
624,294
629,485

372,564
378,027
378,893

356,180
360,713
361,194

15.79
15.82
15.79

April
May
June

9.92
10.25
10.08

8.91
9.24
9.04

7.81
7.91
7.78

10.46
10.84
10.65

8^49

8.50
8.84
9.00

633,336
636,318
644,372

388,730
389,635
391,119

367,420
365,854
364,850

15.83
15.82
15.93

July
August
September

10.12
10.27
10.03

9.20
9.33
9.06

7.76
7.79
7.66

10.66
10.74
10.58

9.'75

9.29
9.84
10.00

647,993
653,317
653,319

392,813
r393,689
r391,760

364,053
r364,527
r362,405

15.90
D15.97
15.88

October
November
December

9.86
9.98
10.05

8.89
9.07
9.13

7.47
7.46
7.61

10.23
10.63
10.81

lo'.ii

10.00
10.05
10.50

r657,226
[H)p661,705
(NA)

r393,941
395,922
[R>p404,944

r364,086
365,579
[H>p371,508

r!5.73
p!5.87
(NA)

1988
January
February
March

1989
January
February
March

2

9.92

2

9.08

3

7.35

4

10. 50

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
'The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984;
series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2 Average for weeks ended
January 6, 13, 20, and 27. 3Average for weeks ended January 5, 12, 19, and 26. ^Average for January 2 through 27.

ItO JANUARY 1989




73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES
|

Year
and
month

950. Eleven leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29,32,36,99, 106, 111)1

1-month
span

6-month
span

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

1-month
span

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas 2

1-month
span

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries

9-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1986

January
February
March

59.1
45.5
59.1

59.1
50.0
54.5

75.0
75.0
50.0

100.0
75.0
75.0

58.3
75.0
66.7

50.0
66.7
50.0

32.5
17.5
80.0

80.0
50.0
37.5

58.8
52.9
64.7

49.0
39.2
51.0

57.0
47.3
49.5

48.1
47.3
43.8

April
May
June

63.6
50.0
59.1

54.5
63.6
63.6

100.0
25.0
37.5

75.0
75.0
100.0

0.0
66.7
33.3

41.7
50.0
33.3

45.0
42.5
45.0

65.0
50.0
40.0

25.5
74.5
56.9

56.9
56.9
67.6

50.8
51.9
46.8

42.7
43.2
47.0

July
August
September

59.1
50.0
50.0

68.2
72.7
90.9

87.5
100.0
75.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

50.0
50.0
41.7

50.0
41.7
50.0

40.0
80.0
65.0

75.0
55.0
67.5

34.3
78.4
17.6

92.2
45.1
90.2

51.9
54.1
51.4

46.5
50.0
55.9

October
November
December

54.5
81.8
81.8

72.7
81.8
90.9

75.0
87.5
100.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

91.7
41.7
25.0

75.0
33.3
58.3

47.5
77.5
45.0

90.0
77.5
55.0

71.6
80.4
7.8

70.6
70.6
94.1

53.0
58.9
58.9

53.2
55.9
58.4

January
February
March

36.4
45.5
63.6

72.7
72.7
63.6

25.0
100.0
50.0

100.0
100.0
50.0

66.7
25.0
25.0

50.0
58.3
50.0

72.5
72.5
22.5

70.0
75.0
85.0

88.2
35.3
52.0

69.6
82.4
78.4

50.8
59.2
61.1

64.6
64.3
63.0

April
May
June

40.9
45.5
59.1

72.7
63.6
72.7

62.5
50.0
87.5

100.0
100.0
100.0

75.0
50.0
58.3

50.0
66.7
50.0

7.5
95.0
50.0

77.5
42.5
77.5

73.5
78.4
15.7

80.4
94.1
90.2

62.4
62.4
61.6

70.3
72.4
77.3

July
August
September

50.0
45.5
45.5

72.7
72.7
63.6

100.0
100.0
50.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
41.7
83.3

50.0
66.7
50.0

62.5
52.5
25.0

55.0
62.5
87.5

64.7
84.3
37.3

92.2
59.8
62.7

70.8
62.2
68.1

78.4
79.7
82.7

October
November
December

81.8
22.7
50.0

54.5
59.1
40.9

75.0
50.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

66.7
75.0
25.0

83.3
83.3
83.3

87.5
35.0
25.0

35.0
50.0
60.0

86.3
23.5
5.9

27.5
62.7
80.4

67.3
67.8
68.4

77.8
77.0
76.5

r36.4
54.5
54.5

31.8
50.0
63.6

75.0
87.5
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

r83.3
r66.7
50.0

83.3
75.0
r83.3

55.0
30.0
52.5

45.0
65.0
27.5

80.4
29.4
60.8

47.1
41.2
31.4

61.6
61.6
62.2

73.5
70.3
70.3

April
May
June

63.6
31.8
86.4

72.7
77.3
54.5

50.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

75.0
25.0
75.0

83.3
66.7
r83.3

82.5
22.5
60.0

25.0
55.0
r50.0

94.1
29.4
29.4

25.5
86.3
96.1

63.8
58.1
68.9

73.8
70.5
68.4

July
August
September

22.7
59.1
54.5

40.9
72.7
44.4

75.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
"100.0

25.0
r66.7
58.3

r58.3
75.0
5
100.0

50.0
37.5
77.5

62.5
p40.0

68.6
22.5
76.5

r66.7
p86.3

61.4
51.9
49.5

r-64.9
r72.4
p71.1

October
November
December

r54.5
36.4
3
72.2

1987

1988

January
February
March

3

100.0
75.0
"100.0

5

58.3
75.0
50.0

42.5
r42.5
plO.O

72.5
r5.9
p76.5

r62.4
r71.1
p63.2

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
2
Figures are the percent of components declining.
3
Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
^Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
5
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74



JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

1-quarter
span
Revised

1987

966. Industrial production, 24 industries

4-Q moving
average
3

1-month
span

6-month
span

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials (u)

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks1@

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies 2 ©

(4-quarter span)

3

( )

67.6
44.1
58.8

82.4
73.5
73.5

52.9
44.1
55.9

76.5
73.5
73.5

47.1
55.9
41.2

73.5
85.3
76.5

57.4
55.9
55.9

73.5
70.6
r79.4

41.2
67.6
50.0

r79.4
p76.5

p38

October
November
December

r52.9
r66.2
p66.2

73.1
96.2
80.8

39.3
46.3
93.9

97.5
97.5
62.5

*76

70.8
62.5
50.0

91.7
91.7
95.8

73.1
76.9
61.5

88.5
88.5
76.9

81.3
95.0
8.8

10.0
12.5
10.0

*78

75.0
79.2
66.7

83.3
79.2
83.3

53.8
46.2
50.0

53.8
69.2
69.2

0.0
0.0
53.8

17.5
8.0
12.8

*77

52.1
54.2
70.8

83.3
75.0
70.8

42.3
34.6
65.4

69.2
61.5
61.5

75.0
88.8
37.0

5.1
7.7
52.6

'so

79.2
60.4
58.3

91.7
87.5
r79.2

57.7
65.4
65.4

61.5
61.5
61.5

37.2
3.8
97.4

84.6
91.0
92.3

83.3
60.4
r56.3

79.2
83.3
p95.8

42.3
46.2
38.5

57.7
53.8
65.4

30.8
28.2
69.2

79.5
64.1

65

July
August
September

61.5
88.5
57.7

44

April
May
June

75.0
87.5
83.3

65

January
February
March

50.0
70.8
70.8

59

October
November
December

87.8
92.7
92.5

82

July
August
September

98.8
95.2
83.3

p53

80.9
73.5
82.4

88.5
96.2
80.8

r58

54.4
48.5
61.8

84.6
42.3
30.8

41

April
May
June

91.7
89.6
75.0

63

91.2
73.5
89.7

31.2
64.6
60.4

62

41.2
70.6
47.1

*74

r61

January
February
March

1988

(NA)

(NA)

r62.5
r58.3
p60.4

42.3
69.2
76.9

4

(NA)

84.6
23.1
74.4

1989

January
February
March

"73.1

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries through March 1988, and on 39
industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
^Based on the average for January 3, 10, 17, and 24.

JANUARY 1989




75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
|

Year
and
quarter

971. New orders, manufacturing1©

a. Actual
expenditures

(1-Qspan)

b. Later
projections

c. Early
projections
(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade 1 ®

Actual

970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade 1 ©
Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

1986

19.0
57.1
28.6
71.4

47.6
66.7
40.5
76.2

76.2
66.7
45.2
38.1

76
76
74
75

82
83
84
78

70
71
70
70

78
81
81
78

72
73
74
74

81
84
83
80

50.0
69.0
83.3
69.0

52.4
88.1
85.7
76.2

61.9
76.2
57.1
47.6

78
83
82
82

80
83
85
86

74
74
75
76

78
81
83
82

78
80
82
83

82
83
85
86

81.0
73.8
64.3
(NA)

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

95.2
69.0
71.4
42.9

71.4
57.1
50.0
52.4

82
82
82
(NA)

84
84
86
84

76
76
76
(NA)

82
82
82
84

80
80
82
(NA)

85
84
86
85

1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989

76.2

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

84

80

82

H
M DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Year
and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1©

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1©

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

978. Selling prices, retail
trade 1 ©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade 1 ©

976. Selling prices, manufacturing J@

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

59
60
58
63

62
65
62
59

59
59
58
62

64
64
62
62

60
62
66
62

62
62
64
64

60
60
61
62

64
64
68
70

60
66
67
66

63
70
72
70

63
68
66
69

67
67
72
72

64
64
68
70

62
64
62
63

74
74
74
(NA)

70
69
74
72

74
73
74
(NA)

72
72
71
68

70
70
73
(NA)

68
71
70
72

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

58
59
60
58

59
60
59
58

62
61
62
60

58
58
60
57

60
61
64
64

60
59
62
62

64
65
66
68

63
62
62
(NA)

63
62
62
61

67
70
69
(NA)

(4-Q span)

1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

62

63

70

70

72

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by (g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun £
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76



JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

JQ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components

1988

May

June

August

July

September1"

October 1 "

November1"

December

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x
(Hours)

All manufacturing industries

41.0

Percent rising of 20 components

(22)

+

41.1

o

+

o

41.1

41.0

(50)

(60)

(38)

40.5
39.7

40.0
39.0

39.9
39.6

+

+

+

41.2
(78)

41.2

o

41.2

41.0

(42)

(42)

(10)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

40.1
39.5

+

o

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

+

42.3
43.6

+
o

42.4
43.6

41.9
42.6

+

42.0
42.5

41.0
43.0

+
o

41.1
43.0

41.4
39.2

41.3
39.3

+

+

40.1
39.5

+
+

40.3
39.8

+

40.8
36.8

+

40.7
36.9

+
o

41.1
36.9

43.3
37.7

+

43.2
38.0

o
o

43.2
38.0

42.0
44.1

+
+

42.4
45.1

+

42.3
45.3

41.6
36.9

o
+

41.6
37.0

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

o

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

40.2
39.4

+
+

42.1
43.4

+

o
+

42.1
43.5

+
+

42.3
44.0

41.7
43.0

+

41.8
42.4

+
+

42.0
42.7

40.7
39.4

+

40.3
39.5

42.5
43.8

+

42.6
43.7

41.9
42.6

+

42.1
42.4

+

40.6
39.3
42.1
43.4

o

41.9
42.4

41.0
42.6

+

40.8
42.7

+
+

41.0
43.3

o
o

41.0
43.3

o
+

41.0
43.4

40.7
43.0

41.8
39.2

41.5
39.2

+
o

41.6
39.2

+

o

41.9
39.1

+

41.5
39.3

41.4
39.0

40.5
39.2

+

40.4
40.1

+

40.3
41.2

+
+

40.5
39.4

o

41.1
36.8

o
+

o
o

43.2
38.0

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers 2

o
+

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

o

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products 2
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

o

41.7
37.3

o

40.6
40.3

41.1
37.1

41.0
36.8

o
+

41.0
37.0

+
+

43.3
38.1

43.2
38.0

43.0
37.8

42.9
37.7

42.1
44.6

+

40.6
41.3

o
+

42.1
44.7

+
o

42.5
44.7

42.4
44.1

42.3
43.8

41.5
37.6

+

41.6
37.5

+

41.5
37.9

41.7
37.5

41.4
37.1

+ 122,942

+ 130,846

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES x
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

- 115,369

Percent rising of 34 components

+ 125,442

(56)

- 116,112

(56)

+ 122,806

41.0
36.8

3

- 119,321

(68)

(41)

+

o

+ 122,791

(50)

(53)

(66)

(66)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+
+

12,348
12,038

-

12,271
11,958

-

12,103
11,471

+

11,794
11,638

+
+

12,496
12,007

+

12,428
12,026

+
+

12,631
12,400

+
+

13,303
13,288

Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery

+

20,969
18,865

+
-

22,018
18,461

+

21,408
19,039

+
-

22,851
19,025

-

21,459
18,629

+

21,181
18,977

+
+

21,385
20,115

+

20,707
20,341

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

-

28,313
22,836

+
+

37,735
22,999

-

29,239
22,852

+
-

34,707
22,791

+

31,618
23,112

+
+

34,898
23,281

+

32,398
24,013

+
+

38,882
24,325

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

ltd)

JANUARY

1989




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

1988

D i f f u s i o n index components

June

May
966.

+

All industrial production

Percent rising of 24 components

2

136.1

August

July

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1977-100)

+

136.5

+

+

October r

November r

+

+

+

DecemberP

x

138.5

138.6

139.3

139.8

+

140.2

(58)

(62)

(56)

(60)

(83)

(58)

(60)

138.0

September 1 ^

(60)

Durable manufactures:
133.8
164.9

o

133.5
164.9

+
-

137.2
164.5

+
+

138.6
165.0

(NA)
(NA)

122.6
90.8

o
+

122.6
93.1

122.5
94.3

+

+

124.6
92.4

(NA)
92.0

+
+

122.1
174.1

+
+

122.5
174.8

+
-

122.6
173.2

+
+

124.2
174.6

+
+

124.5
174.7

181.5
131.9

+

182.2
131.8

+

181.8
132.7

+
+

182.9
134.8

+

182.3
135.6

+

181.7
138.0

+
+

156.4
107.8

+
+

156.8
108.3

+
+

157.8
108.5

+
-

159.9
107.7

+

159.8
109.0

141.3
104.5

+
-

143.3
100.6

o
+

143.3
105.1

-

143.2
105.0

+

145.2
103.7

+

145.5
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

+

114.3
109.3

+
+

117.1
109.4

116.4
108.9

+

116.2
109.9

+
-

117.0
109.5

116.5
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

148.6
182.3

+
+

152.3
184.9

+

151.0
186.7

151.7
187.8

-

+

150.9
188.0

+

+

150.5
94.1

+
+

153.4
95.0

+
+

154.8
96.0

+

155.3
93.7

+
+

157.0
96.3

+

+

Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

139.8
160.5

Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals

+
+

121.5
89.2

+

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery

+
+

119.8
170.3

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

+
+

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

136.4
161.2

+
+

136.6
162.9

123.4
87.5

122.2
91.5

+

+

+
+

120.4
171.2

+
+

121.7
173.1

179.1
133.1

+

179.5
132.8

+
-

+
+

151.3
106.0

+
+

153.0
107.6

+
o

141.0
107.2

+
-

114.6
108.6

+

+

+

160.5
(NA)

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

+
-

149.5
180.7

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

+

149.1
95.2

+

Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

+

173.4
57.1

+
+

174.4
58.9

+
+

175.4
59.1

+

175.3
59.4

o
+

175.3
59.9

+
+

177.3
61.0

Metal mining
Coal

86.0
127.8

82.2
126.9

+
+

94.0
141.5

+
-

96.6
137.2

+
+

99.1
142.2

+

-

100.4
138.5

+

(NA)
149.7

Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

94.6
104.1

+
-

95.8
137.4

+

93.3
140.2

+

93.2
141.3

-

92.0
139.7

91.3
142.9

-

90.8
142.2

150.7
186.7

o

(NA)
186.7

158.1
94.7

+

(NA)
97.7
(NA)
(NA)

178.9
60.2

Mining:

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary: and "NA", not available.
2

78

( * )

rising, (o)

+

unchanged, and ( - ) - falling,

+

(NA)
(NA)

The "r" indicates revised: "p"

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.




(NA)
151.8

JANUARY 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^9 SELECTED D I F F U S I O N I N D E X COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
D i f f u s i o n index components

1989

1988

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

January 1

967. I N D E X OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2
R a w i n d u s t r i a l s price index (1967 100) . . . . +
Percent rising of 13 components

301.6 +

309.0

(65)

(65)

309.5

+

309.9

(42)

-

(46)

306.4

-

305.0 +

309.7

(42)

(38)

+

317.2

+

323.9

(73)

(77)

(69)

Dollars
Copper scrap

Steel scrap

+

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

Lead scrap

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

(U.S. t o n ) . .
(metric ton) . .

0.768

+

1.693

0.820

-

0.776
1.711

-

0.773 +
1.704

0.875 +
1.929

0.942
2.077

+

0.954
2.103

+

0.989
2.180

-

0.968
2.134

+

0.232
0.511

o

0.232 +
0.511

0.246
0.542

0.258 +
0.569

0.270
0.595

+

0.285
0.628

o

0.285
0.628

1.808

0.474

0.230
0.507

- 103.000
113.537

+ 106.500
117.395

+ 120.000
132.276

- 117.000
128.969

0.215

+

Tin

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

3.852
8.492

+

4.008
8.836

+

4.058
8.946

+

Zinc

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

0.579

+

0.651
1.435

+

0.684
1.508

o

0.684
1.508

Burlap

(yard) . .
(meter) . .

+

0.282
0.308

-

0.281 0.307

0.277
0.303

+

Cotton

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

0.619
1.365

+

0.633
1.396

-

0.574
1.265

P r i n t doth

(yard) . .
(meter) . .

-

0.530
0.580

-

0.500
0.547

-

Wool tops

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

7.100

-

6.575
14.495

-

6.500
14.330

Hides

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

1.089
2.401

-

0.969
2.136

-

Rosin

(100 pounds) . .
(100 kilograms) . .

o 47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

+

0.710
1.565

-

(pound) . .
(kilogram)

-

+

0.172
0.379

+

Rubber
Tallow

N O T E : To f a c i l i t a t e interpretation, the month-to-month
preliminary: and "NA", not available.

1.276

15.653

0.593
1.307
0.158

0.348

- 115.000
126.765

+

- 114.000
125.662

- 108.600
119.710

- 106.000
116.844

+ 114.000
125.662

4.195 +
9.248

4.222
9.308

-

4.142 +
9.131

4.182
9.220

+

+

0.699
1.541

+

0.708 +
1.561

0.724
1.596

+

0.754
1.662

+

0.803
1.770

0.285
0.312

-

0.281 0.307

0.276
0.302

+

0.278
0.304

+

0.280
0.306

+

0.281
0.307

-

0.549
1.210

-

0.513 +
1.131

0.520
1.146

+

0.533 +
1.175

0.547
1.206

+

0.554
1.221

0.498 +
0.545

0.508
0.556

-

0.500
0.547

-

0.480
0.525

+

0.492
0.538

+

0.500
0.547

+

0.518
0.566

o

6.500
14.330

o

6.500
14.330

+

6.950
15.322

+

7.480
16.490

0.941 +
2.075

1.026
2.262

-

0.980
2.161

-

0.905
1.995

-

0.874
1.927

-

o

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

+

56.600
124.780

+

0.662
1.459

-

0.640
1.411

-

0.599
1.321

-

0.555
1.224

-

0.536 +
1.182

0.179
0.395

-

0.174
0.384

-

0.154
0.340

-

0.146
0.322

-

0.140 +
0.309

4.176 +
9.206

directions of change are shown along with the numbers:

( • )

rising, (o)

unchanged, and (

)

:

" falling.

7.088
15.626

7.000
15.432

0.865 +
1.907
62.250
137.236

4.235
9.336

0.920
2.028

+

65.000
143.299

0.539 +
1 . 188

0.556
1.226

-

0.148
0.326

0.152
0.335

The "r" i n d i c a t e s revised: "p"

1

The index is the average for January 3 through 27; component prices are averages for January 3, 10, 17, and 24.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2

ItO

JANUARY 1989




79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

H
H GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

a. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

4.9
2.4
4.1
3.0

15,004
15,061
15,173
15,244

3,561.7
3,582.3
3,639.8
3,654.7

6.4
1.0
1.4

15,447
15,380
15,381
15,397

3,673.6
3,688.0
3,718.3
3,745.2

42.0
46.3
42.3
57.7

4.6
5.0
4.5
6.1

15,537
15,693
15,826
16,022

3,746.9
3,795.2
3,852.2
3,855.9

33.1
29.1
24.2

3.4
3.0
2.5

16,126
16,213
16,283
p!6,301

3,890.1
3,949.9
3,969.9
p4, 000.0

3,925.6
3,979.0
4,047.0
4,107.9

73.8
53.4
68.0
60.9

7.9
5.6
7.0
6.2

3,577.5
3,599.2
3,635.8
3,662.4

42.3
21.7
36.6
26.6

4,180.4
4,207.6
4,268.4
4,304.6

72.5
27.2
60.8
36.2

7.2
2.6
5.9
3.4

3,719.3
3,711.6
3,721.3
3,734.7

56.9
-7.7
13.4

4,391.8
4,484.2
4,568.0
4,662.8

87.2
92.4
83.8
94.8

8.4
8.7
7.7
8.6

3,776.7
3,823.0
3,865.3
3,923.0

4,724.5
4,823.8
4,909.0
p4,989.9

61.7
99.3
85.2

5.4
8.7
7.3

p80.9

p6.8

3,956.1
3,985.2
4,009.4
p4,029.2

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-0.8

9.7

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

RNj GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

p2.0

Q PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars

p!9.8

231. Total in 1982
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

2,764.6
2,850.7
2,840.0
2,899.5

2,509.4
2,563.5
2,535.4
2,562.8

10,524
10,727
10,581
10,667

2,554.9
2,599.3
2,661.4
2,700.4

2,319.1
2,337.4
2,375.9
2,386.9

361.4
367.1
387.2
373.2

344.8
350.3
369.1
356.4

2,965.1
3,016.3
3,032.4
3,064.7

2,614.5
2,655.9
2,643.9
2,649.4

10,858
11,006
10,928
10,923

2,739.0
2,772.1
2,842.8
2,876.0

2,415.1
2,440.9
2,478.6
2,486.2

381.4
393.0
429.9
421.8

363.3
374.2
405.1
397.3

3,143.9
3,154.1
3,224.9
3,315.8

2,679.6
2,652.8
2,683.9
2,728.9

11,024
10,889
10,989
11,145

2,921.7
2,992.2
3,058.2
3,076.3

2,490.2
2,516.6
2,545.2
2,531.7

403.5
420.5
441.4
422.0

378.3
391.3
406.5
387.6

3,375.6
3,421.5
3,507.5
p3, 587.1

2,762.3
2,762.2
2,800.4
p2,832.8

11,260
11,237
11,362
pll,463

3,128.1
3,194.6
3,261.2
p3, 320.1

2,559.8
2,579.0
2,603.8
p2,621.9

437.8
449.8
452.9
p459.3

401.1
410.6
410.4
p412.5

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




JANUARY

1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

JM PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
Year
and
quarter

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
|

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

890.9
905.6
915.7
932.7

838.2
843.0
850.0
858.3

1,302.7
1,326.6
1,358.5
1,394.5

1,136.2
1,144.1
1,156.8
1,172.2

639.3
652.3
626.7
654.1

634.3
647.5
618.1
648.0

621.5
632.8
626.0
646.8

618.6
630.6
622.1
640.4

938.4
937.2
944.7
954.1

870.4
880.9
881.4
885.3

1,419.2
1,441.9
1,468.2
1,500.1

1,181.4
1,185.8
1,192.0
1,203.6

686.6
667.8
653.0
656.4

678.0
652.1
627.6
616.5

642.6
648.3
652.3
658.4

632.4
628.5
624.6
627.0

977.5
995.3
1,006.6
1,012.4

889.9
889.8
891.9
890.5

1,540.7
1,576.4
1,610.2
1,641.9

1,222.0
1,235.5
1,246.8
1,253.6

685.5
698.5
702.8
764.9

646.4
660.1
667.9
724.7

647.8
665.8
688.3
692.9

616.6
632.3
654.9
657.6

1,016.2
1,036.6
1,060.8
pi, 075. 2

892.7
893.6
904.5
p908.7

1,674.1
1,708.2
1,747.5
pi, 785. 6

1,265.9
1,274.8
1,288.9
pi, 300. 7

763.4
758.1
772.5
p767.9

728.9
715.1
726.1
p717.1

698.1
714.4
722.8
p734.3

662.9
679.7
686.6
p687.9

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

B

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

MM

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

17.8
19.5

15.8
16.9
-4.0

0.7
7.2

7.7

784.4
801.7
840.2
856.7

705.5
716.7
749.8
752.7

336.1
339.6
368.4
376.6

309.0
313.3
340.9
340.6

448.3
462.1
471.8
480.1

396.4
403.4
408.9
412.1

741.8
758.8
766.9
774.5

356.6
368.7
372.7
366.7

322.7
333.6
336.7
340.5

491.2
500.2
509.1
519.7

419.1
425.2
430.2
434.0

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-2.0

3.0
-10.5

847.8
868.8
881.8
886.5

37.7
32.7
14.5
72.0

29.8
27.8
13.0
67.1

903.8
915.7
932.2
947.3

772.9
772.2
782.9
792.6

372.7
377.5
386.3
391.4

334.0
332.1
342.1
347.7

531.1
538.2
546.0
555.9

438.9
440.1
440.8
444.9

65.3
43.7
49.7

66.0
35.3
39.5

p33.7

p29.2

945.2
961.6
955.3
p992.2

776.4
783.8
773.5
p790.9

377.7
382.2
367.7
p393.2

327.8
331.6
320.1
p332.9

567.5
579.4
587.6
p599.0

448.7
452.2
453.4
p458.0

44.0
19.5

0.7

45.7
23.6

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

JANUARY

1989




81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

B

Qj FOREIGN TRADE

Year
and
quarter

Net exports of goods and services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

256. Constant
(1982) dollars

252. Current
dollars

255. Constant
(1982) dollars

250. Current
dollars

253. Current
dollars

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

220. National income in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985
-53.1
-74.3
-81.2
-103.2

-81.4
-102.4
-107.9
-125.3

376.8
372.6
365.1
369.2

371.2
367.6
362.6
367.4

429.9
446.9
446.2
472.4

452.6
470.0
470.5
492.6

3,161.5
3,209.2
3,252.4
3,312.8

2,314.8
2,347.5
2,381.2
2,426.7

-93.0
-101.2
-109.1
-114.3

-115.7
-140.2
-151.8
-142.4

376.9
373.9
377.8
385.2

374.5
372.1
379.1
387.8

469.9
475.1
486.9
499.4

490.2
512.4
530.9
530.2

3,378.9
3,421.8
3,450.9
3,496.6

2,461.0
2,483.4
2,518.2
2,565.8

-119.1
-122.2
-125.2
-125.7

-132.8
-126.0
-130.7
-126.0

395.3
416.8
440.4
459.7

394.9
416.4
440.9
459.2

514.4
539.0
565.6
585.4

527.7
542.3
571.6
585.2

3,573.0
3,631.8
3,708.0
3,802.0

2,608.9
2,652.0
2,702.8
2,769.9

-112.1
-90.4
-80.0
p-90.3

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-109.0
-92.6
-93.9
p-100.7

487.8
507.1
536.1
p543.8

486.2
496.9
514.0
p517.6

599.9
597.5
616.0
p634.1

595.1
589.5
607.9
p618.3

3,850.8
3,928.8
4,000.7
(NA)

2,816.4
2,874.0
2,933.2
p2,996.3

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

E

1

Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

B SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj x

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj l

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

253.2
257.3
248.8
264.2

9.0
11.2
8.9
7.8

266.0
275.8
296.1
291.4

318.4
317.4
317.4
322.7

550.9
553.3
509.4
520.3

518.4
532.4
554.1
554.5

128.7
167.8
93.3
111.7

273.1
294.6
285.0
294.2

10.6
12.5
13.1
13.4

303.2
297.1
301.2
293.9

331.1
334.1
333.3
329.3

571.2
537.5
517.7
522.5

565.6
557.7
562.3
554.3

136.9
154.1
98.8
96.8

310.1
308.9
306.8
326.0

17.4
17.8
18.1
20.5

298.3
305.2
322.0
316.1

338.3
348.1
358.3
369.5

539.2
542.4
556.8
603.4

549.0
555.5
569.6
570.0

130.8
69.5
72.6
144.0

323.9
328.8
321.6
p324.6

20.5
19.1
19.7
p!9.1

316.2
326.5
330.0
(NA)

373.9
380.6
396.2
p415.1

627.0
634.1
665.4
(NA)

576.4
583.3
587.2
(NA)

149.9
127.8
145.7
p!64.6

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

82



JANUARY 1989

ItO

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
|

^H SAVING— Continued
Year
and
quarter

298. Government
surplus or deficit

293. Personal
saving rate

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-96.3
-146.9
-138.0
-145.9

4.7
5.9
3.3
3.9

65.1
65.3
65.8
65.7

11.1
11.2
10.8
11.0

4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8

0.5
0.5
0.0
0.2

-1.4
-1.9
-2.0
-2.5

-131.4
-174.3
-143.5
-128.5

4.6
5.1
3.3
3.2

65.5
65.9
66.6
66.8

10.5
10.3
10.1
10.1

4.9
5.1
5.2
5.2

1.1
0.5
0.0
0.0

-2.2
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7

-140.6
-82.6
-85.5
-110.7

4.2
2.2
2.3
4.3

66.5
66.7
66.9
66.0

10.1
10.0

5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9

0.9
0.7
0.3
1.5

-2.7
-2.7
-2.7
-2.7

-99.2
-77.1
-67.5

4.4
3.7
4.2

66.2
66.2
66.4

10.0
10.1
10.1

4.8
4.7
4.7

1.4
0.9
1.0

-2.4
-1.9
-1.6

p66.5

plO.O

p4.7

pO.7

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

9.6
9.8

1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . .
Third quarter . . . .
Fourth quarter . . .

p4.6

(NA)

p-1.8

JJ SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter

Percent of GNP— Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)

Percent of national income

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

64. Compensation of
employees

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj x

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj x

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj *

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1985

8.6
8.5
9.1
9.2

11.4
11.6
11.7
11.7

73.2
73.1
73.2
73.3

8.0
8.0
7.6
8.0

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2

8.4
8.6
9.1
8.8

8.5
8.8
8.7
8.5

11.8
11.9
11.9
12.1

72.8
72.6
73.0
73.4

8.1
8.6
8.3
8.4

0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4

9.0
8.7
8.7
8.4

9.8
9.8
9.7
9.4

8.5
8.4
8.5
8.4

12.1

12.0
12.0
11.9

73.0
73.0
72.9
72.9

8.7
8.5
8.3
8.6

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

8.3
8.4
8.7
8.3

9.5
9.6
9.7
9.7

8.0
7.9
7.5

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

12.0
12.0
12.0
p!2.0

73.1
73.2
73.3
(NA)

8.4
8.4
8.0

0.5
0.5
0.5

8.2
8.3
8.2

9.7
9.7
9.9

10.1

9.9
9.8
9.7

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . .

P7.9

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
MVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

JANUARY

1989




83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Q PRICE MOVEMENTS
|
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982 = 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans i

(Ann. rate,
percent)

311. Index

(1982 = 100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
320. Index @

(1982-84 = 100)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans l

(Percent)

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1982-84 = 100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans x

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986

January
February
March

112.4

April
May
June

113.4

July
August
September

114.7

October
November
December

115.3

1.9

0.7

112.7
2.1

3.6

113.3
4.7

109.6
109.3
108.8
108.6
108.9
109.5

0.3

0.6

-0.3
-0.4

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

0.0

107.4
107.0
107.3

0.3

3.0
2.6
1.9

0.2
-0.4

0.2
0.5

0.4
1.7

107.6
108.0
108.2

0.3
0.4
0.2

3.4
5.9
6.1

109.5
109.7
110.2

0.0
0.2
0.3

2.6
2.8
2.2

109.2
110.1
110.5

0.9
0.8
0.4

5.8
5.8
5.8

110.3
110.4
110.5

0.2
0.3
0.2

3.7
4.1
4.4

110.7
111.1
111.3

0.2
0.4
0.2

5.0
3.7
3.3

3.7

111.2
111.6
112.1

0.7
0.4
0.4

5.0
5.1
5.3

111.9
112.1
112.3

0.5
0.2
0.2

3.6
4.0
4.7

4.0

112.7
113.1
113.5

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.4
4.5
4.1

112.7
113.3
113.9

0.4
0.5
0.5

3.4
3.2
4.0

3.5

113.8
114.4
115.0.

0.3
0.4
0.3

3.9
3.7
3.6

113.8
113.9
114.5

3.5

115.3
115.4
115.4

0.3
0.3
0.2

3.7
3.2
3.7

114.7
114.8
115.3

3.0

2.1

2.8

2.3

ni.'i

115.7
116.0
116.5

0.3
0.2
0.5

3.9
4.0
4.4

115.6
115.3
115.7

-0.3

116.5
117.0
117.7

114.8

1987

January
February
March

116.3

April
May
June

117.3

July
August
September

118'.2

October
November
December

118*. 9

3.5

115.8
3.5
117*.0

3.1

118.6
2.4

11916

C

0.1
0.5

3.6
2.7
2.5

0.2
0.1
0.4

3.2
2.5
2.1

0.3
0.3

3.2
3.9
4.2

0.7
0.4
0.6

5.8
7.6
8.5

118.9
119.6
120.5

1.0
0.6
0.8

7.3
6.6
6.0

120.7
120.8
121.2

0.2
0.1
0.3

-0.1

1988

January
February
March

1.7
119*.9

119.4

April
May
June

12i!6

July
August
September

122*4

October
November
December

pl23!8

5.0

117.1
117.5
118.0

0.4
0.3
0.3

4.5
5.1
4.7

5.6

118.5
119.0
119.8

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.7
4.5
4.5

p3.9

5.5

120.2
120.3
120.5

0.4
0.3
0.3

121.3
4.7

123.0
p4.7

p!24.2

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
'•Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.




JANUARY 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

EH

330. Index ©

(1982 = 100)

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1 ©

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©

335. Index ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

(1982 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

331. Index

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1982 = 100)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

1986

January
February
March

103.2
101.7
100.3

-0.4
-1.5
-1.4

-6.3
-6.5
-7.0

103.7
102.1
100.5

-0.4
-1.5
-1.6

-7.6
-7.9
-8.1

94.2
90.4
88.3

-1.2
-4.0
-2.3

-17.8
-17.4
-18.2

April
May
June

99.6
100.0
99.9

-0.7
0.4
-0.1

-7.2
-4.7
-1.8

99.8
99.8
99.8

-0.7
0.0
0.0

-9.2
-6.7
-3.4

85.4
86.8
86.2

-3.3
1.6
-0.7

-15.9
-8.2
-4.0

July
August
September

99.4
99.3
99.4

-0.5
-0.1
0.1

0.2
-0.4
-0.4

98.8
98.6
98.8

-1.0
-0.2
0.2

-1.4
-1.2
-1.2

86.4
86.6
86.5

0.2
0.2
-0.1

5.0
1.4
0.9

October
November
December

99.7
99.8
99.7

0.3
0.1
-0.1

2.2
3.5
3.7

99.1
99.2
99.2

0.3
0.1
0.0

3.3
4.5
4.7

87.5
87.4
86.6

1.2
-0.1
-0.9

6.3
7.8
9.7

January
February
March

100.5
101.0
101.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

4.5
5.7
6.7

100.4
100.8
101.1

1.2
0.4
0.3

5.1
5.5
6.6

89.1
89.9
90.6

2.9
0.9
0.8

11.3
16.4
19.3

April
May
June

101.9
102.6
103.0

0.7
0.7
0.4

6.1
5.6
5.0

101.6
101.9
102.4

0.5
0.3
0.5

5.5
5.8
4.8

92.3
94.3
94.6

1.9
2.2
0.3

15.1
15.7
12.3

July
August
September

103.5
103.8
103.7

0.5
0.3
-0.1

4.4
3.1
2.3

103.1
103.7
103.5

0.7
0.6
-0.2

4.8
4.6
3.5

95.6
96.7
96.0

1.1
1.2
-0.7

8.4
1.3
0.2

October
November
December

104.1
104.2
104.2

0.4
0.1
0.0

2.1
1.9
2.3

104.0
104.2
104.2

0.5
0.2
0.0

2.5
1.7
2.3

96.1
94.9
94.7

0.1
-1.2
-0.2

-3.5
-4.3
-3.7

January
February
March

104.6
104.8
104.9

0.4
0.2
0.1

3.3
4.5
5.8

104.4
104.6
104.7

0.2
0.2
0.1

3.1
3.7
4.3

93.9
94.6
94.2

-0.8
0.7
-0.4

-1.9
3.4
5.8

April
May
June

105.8
106.5
107.2

0.9
0.7
0.7

6.4
6.2
6.2

105.6
106.1
106.4

0.9
0.5
0.3

4.7
r4.6
4.2

95.2
96.5
97.4

1.1
1.4
0.9

6.3
r6.0
6.5

July
August
September

107.9
108.0
108.1

0.7
0.1
0.1

4.6
3.4
3.4

106.8
r!07.0
106.9

0.4
rO.2
r-0.1

2.9
2.5
3.2

96.8
r97.4
97.2

-0.6
rO.6
r-0.2

4.0
-4.9
0.0

October
November
December

108.2
108.3
109.0

0.1
0.1
0.6

107.1
107.4
108.1

0.2
0.3
0.7

97.1
94.1
97.4

-0.1
-3.1
3.5

1987

1988

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:

1

JANUARY 1989




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
|
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332. Index

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans x

(1982 = 100)

Producer price index, capital equipment

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

333 Index

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1982 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986
102.3
101.1
99.9

-0.6
-1.2
-1.2

-6.5
-7.3
-8.0

108.6
108.7
108.9

0.1
0.1
0.2

1.9
1.7
2.0

104.5
102.6
101.2

-0.8
-1.8
-1.4

-6.8
-6.9
-7.8

April
May
June

99.0
98.8
98.7

-0.9
-0.2
-0.1

-8.2
-6.0
-2.6

109.2
109.3
109.6

0.3
0.1
0.3

2.0
1.8
2.0

100.4
101.0
101.1

-0.8
0.6
0.1

-8.1
-3.7
-0.2

July
August
September

98.0
98.0
98.6

-0.7
0.0
0.6

-1.6
-1.0
-0.6

109.7
109.7
110.0

0.1
0.0
0.3

2.4
2.8
2.2

100.2
100.7
101.1

-0.9
0.5
0.4

2.0
0.8
0.6

October
November
December

98.2
98.3
98.4

-0.4
0.1
0.1

2.1
3.3
2.4

110.5
110.8
110.8

0.5
0.3
0.0

2.8
2.4
2.0

101.4
101.4
101.4

0.3
0.0
0.0

3.2
2.8
3.0

99.0
99.6
99.8

0.6
0.6
0.2

4.1
5.2
6.0

111.2
111.0
111.1

0.4
-0.2
0.1

1.6
1.3
1.1

101.8
102.1
102.6

0.4
0.3
0.5

3.8
4.4
4.6

April
May
June

100.2
100.8
101.3

0.4
0.6
0.5

5.9
5.7
5.9

111.4
111.5
111.4

0.3
0.1
-0.1

0.7
1.6
2.5

103.3
103.6
103.7

0.7
0.3
0.1

4.6
4.4
4.1

July
August
September

101.9
102.4
102.7

0.6
0.5
0.3

6.1
5.6
5.0

111.6
111.9
112.5

0.2
0.3
0.5

1.1
1.1
1.6

104.1
104.3
104.7

0.4
0.2
0.4

2.3
1.7
0.6

October
November
December

103.2
103.6
103.8

0.5
0.4
0.2

4.6
3.9
4.3

112.0
112.1
112.3

-0.4
0.1
0.2

2.2
2.0
1.2

104.5
104.5
104.0

-0.2
0.0
-0.5

0.6
-0.6
0.0

January
February
March

104.2
104.4
104.9

0.4
0.2
0.5

4.7
5.3
6.7

112.8
113.0
113.2

0.4
0.2
0.2

2.5
2.9
2.9

104.4
104.0
104.7

0.4
-0.4
0.7

1.3
2.1
3.5

April
May
June

105.6
106.3
107.2

0.7
0.7
0.8

7.4
7.6
7.4

113.4
113.7
113.9

0.2
0.3
0.2

2.7
3.2
4.5

105.2
105.6
105.8

0.5
0.4
0.2

4.5
r6.1
5.6

July
August
September

108.0
108.3
108.7

0.7
0.3
0.4

6.0
5.5
4.7

114.3
114.8
115.7

0.4
0.4
0.8

3.6
3.5
3.9

106.7
r!07.1
107.6

0.9
rO.4
rO.5

4.4
4.4
4.6

October
November
December

108.7
109.2
109.7

0.0
0.5
0.5

115.4
115.7
116.1

-0.3
0.3
0.3

107.5
107.9
108.2

-0.1
0.4
0.3

January
February
March

1987

January
February
March

1988

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
'•Changes are centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

JANUARY 1989

ltd!

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls x
Year
and

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

(1977-100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

(1977 = 100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 2

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986

January
February
March

167.5
168.2
168.5

April
May
June

0.4
0.2

2.6
2.4
1.7

93.6
94.3
95.0

168.5
168.8
169.3

0.0
0.2
0.2

2.1
1.6
1.6

95.5
95.3
95.2

July
August
September

169.2
169.6
169.8

0.0
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.8
2.3

95.2
95.3
95.1

October
November
December

170.3
171.2
171.2

0.3
0.5
0.0

2.5
2.8
2.7

95.3
95.5
95.3

January
February
March

171.3
171.9
172.1

0.1
0.4
0.1

2.6
2.0
2.1

94.7
94.7
94.4

April
May
June

172.5
172.9
172.9

0.3
0.2
0.1

2.3
2.6
2.9

July
August
September

173.2
174.1
174.6

0.2
0.5
0.3

October
November
December

174.9
175.6
175.7

January
February
March

176.6
176.7
177.0

April
May
June

178.0
178.7
178.6

July
August
September

179.3
179.5
180.3

0.4
0.1
0.5

October
November
December

181.5
r!81.4
p!81.7

rO.6

93.1

r-0.1

r92.9
p92.7

-0.2

-0.6

0.8
0.7
0.5
-0.1
-0.2

0.0
0.1

4.4

2.9
2.9
2.2

179!6

3.4
2.0
0.3

180.4

4^2

3.2

-0.4

4.3

0.3
0.2

182.3

-1.1
-1.3
-1.6

184.6

185.6

-0.3

-2.4
-3.1
-3.3

94.1
94.0
93.7

-0,3
-0.1
-0.3

-2.1
-2.0
-1.5

187.1

2.8
3.3
3.3

93.7
93.8
93.7

-0.1

-1.3
-0.5
-0.1

189.2

0.2
0.4
0.1

4.0
3.0
2.8

93.5
93.8
93.7

0.5
0.1
0.2

3.6
3.5
3.3

93.8
93.7
93.5

0.6
0.4

3.1
3.2
3.8

93.6
93.6
93.2

4.0

93.2
92.9
93.0

-0.2

0.1
0.2
-0.2

i!z
3^7

5.1
3*.7

1987
-0.7

0.0

0.1
-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.4

-0.1

3.8

3.4
4.0

4.4

0.2

0.3

2.1

4.4
6.2
4.7

192.1

1988

-0.1

pO.2

r3.0
p3.5

0.1
-0.1
-0.2

0.1
0.0
-0.4

0.0
-0.4

0.2

3.5

0.1
-0.5
-1.0
-1.2
-1.8
-1.1
-1.0
-1.3

4.5
195.9

(NA)

5.4
198*.4

p-1.0

0.1
-0.2

4.9

193!7

(NA)
(NA)

p-0.2

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
lonth, 1-quarChanges are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th moi
ter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quart:er.

JANUARY 1989




87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

H
H WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector— Continued
Year
and

348. Average
first-year
changes ©

Real compensation
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans L

346. Index

(1977 = 100)

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, business sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370. Index

(1977 = 100)

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans x

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1977 = 100)

1.6

108.6

1.2

ios!i

-6!<5

ios!6

0.2

107.8

1.5

107.8

1.9

m.'e

2!7

109.6

1.1

109^9

6" 5

110.8

1986

2.7

January
February
March

99.2

0.6

100.3

July
August
September

100.8

October
November
December

101.4

1.6

no'.4

2.9
0.7

1.9

-61 i

-0.4

-1.4

1.2

110.0

1.4
2.4

7.7
110.5

0.7

4.6

April
May
June

1.2

2.*5

2.7

-0.8

2.4

109.8

...

1987

January
February
March

100.' 6

April
May
June

106! 2

July
August
September

io6!i

October
November
December

101.0

1.1

-3.1

2.1

4.1

-1.4

3.9

-6'.4
2.5

0.6

2. 1

CL4
3.4

2.5

0.3

109.9

-0.4

noie

ni!?

2.4

0.7

2.7

3.9

0.6
111.8

1988

January
February
March

...
ioi.6

April
May
June

106! 9

July
August
September

(NA)

112.8

rp3.1

-0.2

-3.4

p2.4

(NA)
0.6

3.5

pi. 8

6'.7

101. i

October
November
December

pi. 8

0.1

111.8

p3.4

(NA)

1.5

rp3.2

nb'.s

112.2

(NA)

p3.8

110.1

(NA)

p2.2

(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




JANUARY 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
|
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

442. Civilian
employment

441. Total

Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

444. Males
20 years
and over
(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

(Percent)

(Thous.)

l

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)
1

Revised 1

78.3
78.1
r78.2

54.9
55.0
55.1

53.4
54.5
55.0

5,577
5,629
5,384

78.0
78.0
78.2

55.2
55.4
55.7

55.6
55.4
55.4

6,722
6,558
6,815

5,120
5,311
5,383

78.1
77.9
78.1

55.8
55.8
55.8

54.6
54.7
54.7

1,408
1,446
1,359

6,725
6,646
6,454

5,494
5,302
5,311

r78.0
78.2
78.3

55.8
55.7
55.6

54.9
54.4
53.4

2,864
2,822
2,870

1,391
1,432
1,402

6,430
6,382
6,231

5,187
5,326
5,168

78.2
r78.1
78.1

55.7
55.8
55.9

54.2
54.8
54.4

3,482
3,443
3,440

2,757
2,708
2,640

1,366
1,427
1,280

6,110
6,039
6,043

5,122
5,098
4,979

78.1
78.2
78.0

56.0
56.3
56.2

54.5
55.6
53.6

3,340
3,259
3,165

2,674
2,662
2,666

1,257
1,305
1,281

5,895
5,814
5,664

5,103
5,046
5,050

78.0
77.9
77.9

56.3
56.4
56.3

53.8
56.0
54.1

6,961

3,194
3,114
3,061

2,620
2,602
2,605

1,390
1,351
1,295

5,756
5,655
5,562

5,142
5,287
4,979

78.0
78.0
77.8

56.4
56.4
56.5

55.1
54.8
55.4

114,055
114,273
114,129

6,980
6,892
6,807

3,106
3,053
3,064

2,568
2,596
2,450

1,306
1,243
1,293

5,550
5,526
5,473

5,113
5,101
5,087

77.9
r78.1
77.9

56.6
56.7
56.6

55.9
55.0
54.1

121,328
121,203
121,524

114,660
114,403
115,001

6,668
6,800
6,523

2,941
3,065
2,889

2,471
2,492
2,485

1,256
1,243
1,149

5,338
5,413
5,163

4,953
4,676
5,073

r78.1
r78.0
77.8

56.6
56.5
56.6

54.5
54.5
56.2

July
August
September

121,658
122,000
121,984

115,034
115,203
115,370

6,624
6,797

2,832
3,077
2,905

2,565
2,467
2,456

1,227
1,253
1,253

5,215
5,491
5,293

5,102
4,972
4,862

r77.8
78.0
77.9

56.7
56.8
56.8

55.9
56.1
56.0

October
November
December

122,091
122,510
122,563

115,573
115,947
116,009

6,518

2,911
2,996
2,953

2,413
2,445
2,422

1,194
1,122
1,179

5,176
5,273
5,317

4,727
4,819
5,033

77.8
r77.8
77.8

57.0
57.4
57.3

55.2
55.1
55.2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Revised

January
February
March

116,687
116,875
117,194

108,879
108,477
108,847

7,808
8,398
8,347

3,497
3,760
3,765

2,909
3,150
3,140

1,402
1,488
1,442

6,423
6,818
6,854

5,289
5,110
5,303

April
May
June

117,341
117,613
118,132

108,943
109,170
109,657

8,398
8,443
8,475

3,738
3,824
3,802

3,118
3,121
3,137

1,542
1,498
1,536

6,823
6,913
6,820

July
August
September

118,124
118,110
118,381

109,826
110,016
110,058

8,298
8,094
8,323

3,832
3,664
3,872

3,022
3,006
2,987

1,444
1,424
1,464

October
November
December

118,454
118,623
118,567

110,202
110,425
110,656

8,252

8,198
7,911

3,833
3,793
3,728

3,011
2,959
2,824

January
February
March

118,873
119,119
119,263

110,969
111,271
111,459

7,904
7,848
7,804

3,649
3,594
3,532

April
May
June

119,394
120,102
119,647

111,789
112,524
112,287

7,605
7,578
7,360

July
August
September

119,884
120,245
120,008

112,613
113,019
112,896

7,271

October
November
December

120,429
120,527
120,701

113,225
113,460
113,740

7,204
7,067

January
February
March

121,035
121,165
120,936

April
May
June

1986

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised

( )

Revised

1987

7,226

7,112

1988

6,614
6,563
6,554

See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JANUARY 1989



OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT

ACTIVITIES

Q DEFENSE INDICATORS
|

Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
|

State and local government 1

Federal Government 1
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Advance measures of defense activity

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

1986
January
February
March

-198.6

806! 7

1,005^3

67.'2

613.1

545.9

28,411
30,247
30,969

12,843
9,715
13,822

185,822
188,008
190,756

9,975
9,449
11,858

April
May
June

-234!i

816.3

1,050.7

60 !i

616!6

556!5

29,758
30,267
33,056

13,136
11,052
12,949

188,903
189,004
193,207

8,514
9,012
7,845

July
August
September

-2oe!i

833^6

1,039.7

62.7

629.6

566!9

31,199
29,968
30,678

13,810
11,432
12,315

196,185
198,635
199,295

10,091
7,709
9,968

October
November
December

-183.3

856!8

1,040.1

54.8

632.9

578.1

28,383
30,341
26,583

9,450
11,866
11,581

198,408
198,337
197,769

7,508
10,426
7,763

January
February
March

-1B8.3

87l".3

1,059.6

47.7

637^5

589!9

25,911
34,669
28,986

10,617
12,546
12,167

196,585
199,440
199,308

6,129
7,650
9,769

April
May
June

-144.0

92CLO

i.osiio

6JL4

659.3

597.9

33,794
32,801
30,475

12,138
12,103
12,748

200,411
202,504
204,177

11,265
9,907
10,128

July
August
September

-138.3

930.1

1,068^4

52^9

65911

606^2

31,867
32,619
34,065

13,667
12,881
13,609

207,148
209,556
215,074

9,882
9,179
9,102

October
November
December

-16CL4

944! 4

1,104.9

49.7

666^9

61?!2

29,233
30,794
24,532

10,613
9,383
11,912

212,355
212,086
205,974

9,864
9,824
7,036

January
February
March

-155.1

951.0

i.ioeii

55'.8

685^5

629!7

31,157
33,243
31,595

7,871
11,080
11,901

208,366
210,637
212,335

9,223
8,480
8,065

April
May
June

-133.3

983.0

1,116.3

56.2

698 '.4

642 '.I

33,172
32,294
36,167

16,222
14,301
14,580

210,520
214,223
219,469

9,871
8,215
13,829

July
August
September

-123.5

975.5

1,099.0

56.0

708.0

652.0

29,691
29,004
p27,652

18,794
9,185
plO,964

219,349
219,239
p220,134

6,995
8,037
7,472

(NA)

(NA)

1987

1988

October
November
December

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

pi, 143.0

p665!6

(NA)

(NA)

rlO,695
r8,392
plO,160

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.

90




JANUARY 1989

ItO

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Q| DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and tinal measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977-100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

570. Employment, defense
products industries

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty (u)
(Thous.)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP

(Percent)

1986

January
February
March

178.9
178.0
178.6

31,682
31,148
31,963

159,414
160,355
164,278

20,152
21,586
23,342

8,272
8,508
7,935

1,570
1,572
1,572

2,157
2,160
2,160

1,103
1,087
1,084

266^8

6*.i

April
May
June

179.8
180.2
180.7

32,072
32,089
32,156

164,153
164,405
163,323

22,101
22,921
21,954

8,639
8,760
8,927

1,581
1,588
1,564

2,150
2,150
2,143

1,081
1,072
1,060

277^2

eie

July
August
September

182.4
183.7
184.6

31,800
31,648
31,684

164,192
163,058
164,078

22,538
21,714
23,886

9,222
8,843
8,948

1,592
1,589
1,590

2,150
2,161
2,169

1,059
1,052
1,072

288.0

6.7

October
November
December

185.6
185.5
186.2

31,578
31,369
30,762

162,570
163,442
161,459

22,324
21,168
22,512

9,016
9,554
9,746

1,592
1,591
1,590

2,177
2,181
2,178

1,069
1,063
1,059

278!l

6.5

January
February
March

187.3
188.9
188.6

31,122
31,233
31,169

158,833
157,779
158,084

22,243
24,096
23,259

8,755
8,704
9,464

1,593
1,591
1,588

2,179
2,172
2,168

1,061
1,067
1,070

287^3

e'.'s

April
May
June

189.2
189.3
188.6

31,597
31,624
31,709

160,358
160,898
161,816

23,593
22,760
24,046

8,991
9,367
9,210

1,584
1,587
1,585

2,158
2,153
2,151

1,072
1,068
1,070

294!8

e.'e

July
August
September

188.7
189.1
189.8

32,174
32,553
32,668

162,605
162,741
162,316

22,858
24,340
21,513

9,093
9,043
9,527

1,588
1,589
1,590

2,158
2,167
2,174

1,074
1,076
1,090

299.8

6.6

October
November
December . .

190.3
188.7
188.9

33,171
33,936
33,504

163,247
164,130
161,860

25,816
21,276
26,329

8,933
8,941
9,306

1,593
1,592
1,592

2,172
2,174
2 S 167

1,090
1,087
1,083

299.2

e!i

January
February
March

190.6
191.0
189.9

33,656
33,859
33,945

162,206
162,089
160,841

20,786
23,441
23,752

8,877
8,597
9,313

1,599
1,596
1,587

2,166
2,162
2,142

1,077
1,071
1,067

298.4

6.*3

April
May
June

187.9
185.5
184.6

34,069
34,695
35,328

162,171
162,009
167,117

26,548
20,130
23,765

8,541
8,377
8,721

1,588
1,585
1,584

2,108
2,100
2,104

1,059
1,053
1,041

298.*8

b'.2

July
August
September

184.9
184.9
rl84.5

34,799
34,071
34,839

165,449
164,451
163,092

24,243
23,321
20,636

8,663
9,035
8,830

1,580
1,577
1,571

2,111
2,122
2,138

1,031
1,036
1,052

294.3

e!6

October
November
December

r!84.0
r!83.3
p!83.2

r35,410
p35,239

r!65,356
r!65,093
p!64,931

8,431
r8,655
plO,322

1,566
pi, 565

2,130
2,130
p2,121

1,046
pi, 047

1987

1988

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p298.4

p6.0

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

JANUARY 1989




91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments

604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

(Mil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

(Mil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

18,557
18,520
17,999

2,320
2,283
2,135

3,854
4,294
3,740

30,600
28,866
29,124

4,978
4,254
3,578

5,044
5,378
5,018

April
May
June

18,762
19,023
20,038

2,043
1,960
1,819

3,981
3,644
3,582

30,287
29,390
29,960

2,084
2,718
2,731

5,044
5,054
5,535

July
August
September

19,731
17,970
18,282

2,062
2,231
2,111

3,585
4,091
3,812

30,969
30,122
31,738

2,483
2,225
2,435

6,242
6,280
4,909

October
November
December

19,728
19,295
19,255

2,447
2,204
2,352

3,932
4,138
4,227

30,953
32,666
30,762

2,155
2,788
2,299

5,790
7,156
5,483

January
February
March

18,399
19,327
20,171

1,926
2,047
2,157

3,452
4,404
4,098

31,666
31,825
32,271

2,269
3,598
3,513

4,882
6,322
5,329

April
May
June

20,402
20,260
21,107

2,234
2,410
2,445

4,122
4,176
4,338

31,978
32,514
34,418

2,842
3,685
3,375

5,516
6,093
5,823

July
August
September

22,430
20,883
21,810

2,956
2,520
2,625

4,260
4,420
4,717

34,625
34,492
34,582

4,125
4,574
3,439

5,800
6,008
5,307

October
November
December

22,074
23,094
24,152

2,593
2,409
2,472

4,407
5,371
5,371

35,966
35,316
36,586

3,780
3,292
3,158

6,776
6,342
6,560

January
February
March

24,488
24,518
26,876

2,634
2,936
3,030

5,040
5,177
5,442

34,258
37,729
36,644

3,541
3,536
3,225

5,441
5,659
5,677

April
May
June

26,026
27,478
26,283

3,030
3,327
3,220

5,288
5,374
5,353

34,825
35,732
37,948

3,226
3,802
3,060

6,220
5,507
5,351

July
August
September

26,515
27,493
27,988

3,266
3,349
3,576

5,457
5,778
5,876

34,533
38,140
37,178

3,122
3,360
2,927

5,378
5,888
6,354

October
November
December

r27,816
27,177
(NA)

3,092
2,808
(NA)

5,698
5,709
(NA)

r36,600
38,134
(NA)

2,718
2,645
(NA)

6,589
6,291
(NA)

1987

1988

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

92



JANUARY 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
|
Merchandise, adjusted1

Goods and services
Year

667. Balance

622. Balance

669. Imports

668. Exports

651. U.S. investment abroad

620. Imports

618. Exports

and

Income on investment

month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

1986

January
February
March

-29,485

93,067

122,552

-35,433

54,113

89,546

24,352

17,357

-29,629

94,088

123,717

-33,861

56,946

90,807

22,248

17,533

July
August
September

-31,288

93,493

124,781

-36,721

56,268

92,989

21,845

15,729

October
November
December

-33,118

94,408

127,526

-38,532

56,642

95,174

21,667

16,350

-34,657

98,907

133,564

-39,871

56,791

96,662

24,791

19,715

-37,727

100,353

138,080

-39,552

59,864

99,416

22,429

20,737

July
August
September

-38,987

106, 3is

145,305

-39,665

64,902

104,567

23,289

22,222

October
November
December

-29,150

119,247

148,397

-41,192

68,013

109,205

33,248

20,709

-33,817

121,122

154,939

-35,184

75,300

110,484

26,554

25,395

-30,988

123,000

153,988

-30,151

79,606

109,757

23,426

25,366

p-27,776

p!29,793

p!57,569

p-28,533

p82,306

pllO,839

p26,830

p27J67

April
May

June

1987

January
February
March
April
May

June

1988

January
February
March
April
May

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

JANUARY

1989




93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Year
and
month

47. United States,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

721. OECD 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

726. France,
index of industrial production

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

1986

January
February
March

126.4
125.5
123.9

112
113
112

144.6
144.8
144.8

113
113
113

107
105
105

108
110
109

108.4
110.9
113.8

126.2
126.3
123.3

April
May
June

124.7
124.3
124.1

115
111
114

144.4
144.2
144.5

117
112
116

109
104
108

111
109
109

114.9
108.7
113.9

128.1
124.8
123.0

July
August
September

124.8
124.9
124.5

115
114
114

144.2
141.9
145.8

117
114
114

109
109
109

111
111
111

111.1
110.0
109.8

124.3
123.9
124.3

October
November
December

125.3
125.7
126.8

114
114
113

143.8
141.9
142.0

114
114
112

109
107
107

111
111
110

111.0
112.2
111.1

125.1
124.9
126.8

January
February
March

126.2
127.1
127.4

112
115
115

141.3
140.8
142.8

111
114
114

105
109
109

110
112
112

111.8
115.2
117.6

126.2
127.6
128.8

April
May
June

127.4
128.2
129.1

115
116
116

141.7
139.5
144.7

116
116
114

108
110
111

112
112
112

115.5
119.7
116.2

128.9
129.6
130.3

July
August
September

130.6
131.2
131.0

116
115
116

145.9
145.9
148.2

113
117
116

110
110
111

115
116
115

115.6
110.8
115.1

130.9
133.6
134.1

October
November
December

132.5
133.2
133.9

118
118
117

150.7
151.1
152.9

117
117
117

111
111
112

117
rl!6
117

120.1
118.7
114.0

135.5
136.5
136.9

January
February
March

134.4
134.4
134.7

120
118
120

153.5
157.7
158.0

117
118
118

112
112
113

117
115
117

124.2
118.9
119.2

137.9
137.5
138.1

Aoril
May
June

135.4
136.1
136.5

120
120
121

156.8
153.2
158.3

117
118
121

112
113
115

118
rl!9
119

121.5
118.3
120.1

138.2
139.9
140.0

July
August
September

138.0
138.5
138.6

122
r!22
r!22

156.2
160.6
161.5

117
124
r!22

116
116
rl!7

119
120
r!20

123.6
116.4
r!20.3

139.5
r!40.8
141.0

October
November
December

139.3
r!39.8
p!40.2

(NA)

p!60.5
(NA)

p!21
(NA)

pl!3
(NA)

p!20
(NA)

(NA)

r!40.4
p!39.9
(NA)

1987

1988

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94




JANUARY 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q CONSUMER PRICES
United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

Japan

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

France

West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index @

(1982-84=100)

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

United K ngdom

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans x

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986
January
February
March

109.6
109.3
108.8

0.6
-0.2
0.0

105.0
104.9
104.8

1.2
0.4
0.0

105.5
105.2
104.9

-0.4
-0.8
-1.3

116.1
115.9
116.1

1.4
1.2
1.2

113.1
113.5
113.7

3.2
2.9
1.8

April
May
June

108.6
108.9
109.5

-0.5
0.4
1.7

105.1
105.4
104.9

-0.6
0.0
-0.6

104.9
104.9
105.0

-1.9
-1.1
-0.6

116.6
116.9
117.2

1.6
2.4
3.3

114.8
115.0
114.9

1.1
1.1
2.1

July
August
September

109.5
109.7
110.2

2.6
2.8
2.2

104.6
104.4
104.9

-1.7
-0.4
-0.6

104.5
104.2
104.4

-1.1
-1.5
-0.8

117.4
117.5
118.0

2.9
2.9
3.1

114.6
114.9
115.5

2.8
4.2
5.9

October
November
December

110.3
110.4
110.5

3.7
4.1
4.4

105.0
104.5
104.3

-1.9
-2.3
-0.2

104.1
104.0
104.2

0.0
0.2
0.0

118.2
118.4
118.5

4.5
4.3
3.6

115.7
116.7
117.1

6.8
6.9
5.6

January
February
March

111.2
111.6
112.1

5.0
5.1
5.3

103.9
103.9
104.3

2.3
0.4
1.3

104.6
104.7
104.7

1.2
1.5
1.2

119.6
119.8
120.0

4.1
4.1
3.4

117.5
118.0
118.2

5.4
3.8
2.4

April
May
June

112.7
113.1
113.5

4.4
4.5
4.1

105.2
105.4
105.2

2.1
3.3
1.9

104.9
105.0
105.2

1.7
1.7
1.0

120.6
120.9
121.1

2.4
2.7
2.5

119.6
119.7
119.7

2.2
2.0
2.7

July
August
September

113.8
114.4
115.0

3.9
3.7
3.6

104.7
104.8
105.7

-0.9
1.0
0.0

105.2
105.1
104.9

0.8
0.4
0.8

121.4
121.7
121.7

2.3
2.3
2.8

119.6
120.0
120.3

3.7
4.6
4.8

October
November
December

115.3
115.4
115.4

3.7
3.2
3.7

105.7
105.2
105.1

0.0
-1.7
-0.4

105.0
105.0
105.2

-0.2
0.0
1.0

122.0
122.2
122.2

2.2
2.1
2.5

120.9
121.5
121.4

4.2
4.2
4.0

January
February
March

115.7
116.0
116.5

3.9
4.0
4.4

104.8
104.6
105.0

1.3
-0.2
0.2

105.4
105.6
105.7

1.1
1.7
1.3

122.4
122.7
123.0

2.6
2.6
2.5

121.4
121.9
122.3

3.8
3.8
4.6

April
May
June

117.1
117.5
118.0

4.5
5.1
4.7

105.5
105.6
105.4

0.8
2.1
1.3

106.0
106.2
106.3

1.9
2.3
1.9

123.6
123.9
124.3

3.3
3.4
3.6

124.3
124.8
125.3

5.7
7.5
8.3

July
August
September

118.5
119.0
119.8

4.7
4.5
4.5

105.2
105.5
106.4

1.5
2.7
(NA)

106.2
106.3
106.3

1.5
1.7
(NA)

124.7
125.1
125.3

3.3
3.3
(NA)

125.4
126.8
127.4

9.5
9.1
(NA)

October
November
December

120.2
120.3
120.5

1987

1988

106.9
106.5
(NA)

106.4
106.7
(NA)

125.6
125.8
(NA)

128.7
129.3
(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

1

JANUARY 1989



95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Qj STOCK PRICES

Q CONSUMER PRICES-Contmued

Canada

Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices @

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices @

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

1987

January
February
March

131.6
132.1
132.6

4.2
4.7
4.5

115.8
116.3
116.8

4.4
4.7
4.2

287.7
305.6
318.1

1,492.7
1,577.3
1,675.5

308.8
285.2
288.5

642.1
660.1
708.1

841.0
917.9
973.1

r526.9
r503.2
r502.1

378.4
395.4
422.5

April
May
June

132.9
133.4
133.9

4.8
5.9
6.5

117.3
118.0
118.3

5.1
5.2
4.7

314.7
314.5
327.8

1,856.7
1,937.3
1,965.7

304.2
302.3
313.7

725.9
703.6
664.6

957.2
1,042.0
1,098.5

r533.4
r533.6
483.6

420.0
416.4
422.6

July
August
September

134.3
134.6
135.6

6.8
6.4
5.5

119.2
119.3
119.3

4.5
3.8
4.1

337.3
358.3
346.6

1,806.9
1,902.6
1,888.0

327.7
340.7
330.0

691.9
704.9
729.8

1,155.7
1,102.2
1,121.9

r495.0
r460.1
r452.1

455.4
451.3
440.9

October
November
December

136.8
137.2
137.4

5.1
4.0
3.4

119.7
120.2
120.3

3.1
2.9
3.5

304.8
266.5
262.1

1,831.8
1,676.8
1,654.9

306.1
234.2
224.2

632.8
508.5
484.6

1,028.6
795.0
810.9

r450.2
r367.0
r361.4

341.2
336.5
357.1

January
February
March

138.1
138.5
139.1

3.5
3.5
4.0

120.5
121.0
121.6

3.5
4.4
4.0

272.5
280.8
289.1

1,654.9
1,797.4
1,909.4

213.0
223.3
237.7

465.0
501.6
510.3

864.2
859.2
889.1

r349.2
r334.2
r377.4

345.4
362.1
374.4

April
May
June

139.6
140.0
140.4

4.5
5.9
5.9

122.0
122.8
122.9

4.5
5.2
4.5

285.7
278.6
294.4

1,960.5
1,962.2
1,978.5

235.9
230.4
246.1

523.5
545.7
609.1

880.3
879.1
907.5

r383.6
r359.9
r373.0

377.4
367.1
388.9

July
August
September

140.8
141.4
142.1

5.8
7.0

123.7
124.1
124.1

4.6
3.6
3.8

292.7
286.9
291.5

1,971.2
1,987.1
1,923.6

253.2
253.6
260.5

632.2
618.6
636.0

933.1
909.2

r400.0
r416.8
r393.2

381.6
371.3
371.0

October
November
December

143.2
144.4

301.8
294.8
300.8

pi, 913. 8
p2, 009.1
p2,074.2

272.3
272.4

645.3
P659.7
rp669.1

r432.3
436.7
435.6

383.7
372.3
383.0

p309.2

p2,167.6

p726.0

p369.3

p403.0

1988

(NA)

(NA)

124.7
125.1
125.1

(NA)

(NA)

1989

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96




JANUARY

1989

Business Cycle Indicators: Revised Composite Indexes
By MARIE P. HERTZBERG and BARRY A. BECKMAN

BEA. is revising its composite indexes

of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, the key indexes in its analytic system designed to help predict
peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The revision will be effective with
the release on March 3 of estimates
for January 1989. Since their initial
publication in Business Conditions Digest (BCD) in 1968, the indexes have
been revised a number of times.1
This revision, like the earlier ones,
incorporates changes in the components, changes in methodology for computing the indexes, updated statistical
factors, and historical revisions in component data. The revision includes the
following changes:
• Index of leading indicators: Two
components are dropped, two components are improved, and two
components are added;
• Index of lagging indicators: One
component is improved and one
component is added; and
• Methodology for computing the indexes: A new method of smoothing irregular series and some other
minor changes are introduced. In
addition, the base year of the indexes is changed to 1982.

Elements of the Revision
Several characteristics of a time series are used to analyze and evaluate
the existing and the potential composite index components. The most important of these characteristics are cyclical
timing, economic significance, and currency. Cyclical timing is determined
by the consistency with which the cyclical turning points in a series lead, coincide with, or lag the business cycle
1. The last overall revision was in 1983. In addition, in 1987 one component of the leading index was
removed and one component of the lagging index was
recalculated.

JANUARY 1989



turns. Economic significance refers to
the importance of the economic activity measured by the series. Currency
takes into account both the periodicity
of the data and the promptness with
which they are available.
In addition, component series are
considered in terms of statistical adequacy, conformity to business cycles,
smoothness, and revisions. Statistical adequacy refers to the quality of
the data and includes factors such as
the type of reporting system, the coverage of the data, and the length of
the series and its comparability over
time. Conformity refers to the consistency of the cyclical pattern of the series in relation to the business cycles,
and it includes the amplitude of the cycles and the existence of extra turning
points. Smoothness refers to the ease
with which the cyclical movements in
the series can be observed. Revisions
refers to the size and frequency of revisions in recently released data.
The components selected for the revised composite indexes, using these
series characteristics, are listed in table 1 along with the components of the
current indexes.
Changes in index components
The leading index.—Two series—the
change in credit outstanding and the
change in inventories on hand and on
order—are dropped from the leading
index because their current data are
not available in time to be included in
the initial estimate of the index. In the
past, the major factor in the first revision of the index was the addition of
data for these two components. (See
"A Note on Revisions to the Leading
Indicators" in the May 1988 SURVEY OF
CURRENT BUSINESS, p. 21.) Excluding
these components should reduce considerably the size of the first revisions
in the index. Subsequent index revisions also should be smaller because
the dropped components were subject

to substantial revisions after they became available. Because of the important role of credit in the economy,
an improved, more promptly available
series is being tested as a potential
replacement for the change in credit
outstanding. (See "Areas of Future
Work.") For the change in inventories
on hand and on order, the on-order portion, which is available promptly, is included in the new change in unfilled
orders component (see below). The
inventories-on-hand portion, in addition to not being available promptly,
does not qualify as a leader.
Two components of the leading index are improved. First, vendor performance, which has been derived from a
survey of manufacturers in the Chicago
area, is now based on a national survey conducted by the National Association of Purchasing Management. The

Data Availability
Data for 1948 through June 1988 for
the revised composite indexes and their
components, plus revised statistical factors
and a description of the changes in the indexes, are available on printouts and on
a diskette. To order, write to Economic
and Statistical Analysis/BEA, U.S. Department of Commerce, Citizens and Southern
National Bank, 222 Mitchell Street, P.O.
Box 100606, Atlanta, GA 30384. Specify
Revised Indicator Estimates (Accession No.
BEA SID 89-201 for printouts or BEA SID
89-401 for diskette), and include a check
or money order for $4.00 for printouts or
$20.00 for diskette, payable to "Economic
and Statistical Analysis/BEA." Add 25 percent for foreign shipment. For further information about these products or how to order them, write to the Statistical Indicators
Division (BE-60), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 523-0800.
These data and information will also
be available about February 10 on the
Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin
Board, a subscription service providing electronic distribution of economic information
to computer users. For specifications and
costs, call (202) 377-1986.

97

national data, which begin in 1976,
are judged to be more appropriate because of their broader coverage; the
Chicago data continue to be used for
the period before 1976. Data for both
periods are seasonally adjusted. Second, the change in sensitive materials

prices is recalculated: Price series that on the changes in methodology for an
are no longer available are dropped for explanation of smoothing.)
the entire period, those that display
Two components are added to the
seasonal variation are seasonally ad- leading index. First, the change in unjusted, and all are weighted equally. filled orders (in 1982 dollars) of durable
In addition, the method of smoothing goods manufacturers is added. This sethe series is changed. (See the section ries covers all durable goods, whereas
the unfilled orders data previously included as a component of the change in
Table 1.—Components of Current and Revised Composite Indexes
inventories on hand and on order exclude capital goods and defense prodCurrent
Revised
ucts. Second, the index of consumer expectations, compiled by the University
Composite Index of Leading Indicators
of Michigan's Survey Research Center,
is added to provide a new dimension to
Average weekly hours of production or
Same.
the leading index by including an asnonsupervisory workers, manufacturing.
pect of economic activity not covered
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
Same.
previously.
insurance, State programs (inverted).
The coincident index.—No changes
Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars,
Same.
are made in the four components of this
consumer goods and materials industries.
index.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in Same.
1982 dollars.
The lagging index.—One component
of the lagging index is improved. For
Index of new private housing units authorized by Same.
local building permits.
the labor cost per unit of output in
manufacturing, the revised index uses
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
Same.
the percent changes in this measure
Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Same.
rather than the deviations from trend
Vendor performance, percent of companies
Same title; incorporates improved data source
used in the current index. This change
receiving slower deliveries.
for recent years.
eliminates the need to estimate the
Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed .. Same title; based on revised methodology and
current trend, a difficult task in a peconsistent data for entire period.
riod when the trend is changing.
Change in business and consumer credit
Dropped.
One new component is added to the
outstanding.
lagging index. The change in the conChange in manufacturing and trade inventories
Dropped.
sumer price index for services, comon hand and on order in 1982 dollars,
piled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
smoothed.
increases the representation of services
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in
in the index.
1982 dollars, durable goods industries,
smoothed.
Index of consumer expectations.
Composite Index of Coincident Indicators
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

Same.

Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars.

Same.

Index of industrial production

Same.

Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars

Same.

Composite Index of Lagging Indicators
Average duration of unemployment in weeks
(inverted).

Same.

Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to
sales in 1982 dollars.

Same.

Average prime rate charged by banks

Same.
Same.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars.
Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding
to personal income.

Same.

Index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing—actual data as a percent of
trend.

Change in index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing, smoothed.




Change in consumer price index for services,
smoothed.

Changes in methodology
Each composite index measures the
average behavior of a group of economic time series that show similar
timing at business cycle turns but that
represent widely differing activities or
sectors of the economy. The procedures used to construct the indexes offset the tendency of volatile series to
dominate the average, and they enhance the usefulness of the three indexes as a consistent system. The
current procedures were explained in
the November 1987 SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESS (pp. 24-28). This revision incorporates four changes in those procedures. In addition, statistical factors—
standardization factors for the components, standardization factors for
the indexes, and trend adjustment
factors—are updated, as shown in tables 2, 3, and 4; revised historical data
are incorporated; and the base year of
the indexes is changed from 1967 to
1982.

JANUARY 1989

Smoothing of components.—For
many economic time series, irregular
short-term movements mask the underlying cyclical patterns in the series,
particularly in the case of series that
are expressed as differences or rates
of change. To dampen the irregular
fluctuations and to clarify the cyclical
movements, smoothing techniques are
used.

Acknowledgments
The revision was organized and carried out by Marie P. Hertzberg under the supervision of
Edward K. Smith, former Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections.
Barry A. Beckman was responsible for the statistical research. He was assisted by Brian
D. Kajutti, Robert J. McCahill, Charles S. Robinson, Amy M. Wu, and Mary D. Young of the
Statistical Indicators Division. Gail James prepared the charts associated with the research.
Feliks Tamm and George R. Green served as chief of the division during this period.
BEA benefited from the suggestions and advice of the Business Conditions Digest Technical
Committee, whose members represent several Federal agencies. Geoffrey H. Moore, Director
of the Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR) at Columbia University, and
Victor Zarnowitz of the University of Chicago, who were engaged as consultants by BEA, also
provided useful suggestions. In addition, BEA benefited from a recent study at the CIBCR that
was carried out by Moore.

A commonly used smoothing technique is the moving average, which
can be computed with equal or variable weights and can be placed at either the center or the end of the span.
Although a properly selected moving for recent months. End-of-span moving
average can smooth an erratic series, averages, such as those used to smooth
it does so at the expense of other desir- two components of the current leading
able characteristics. Centered moving index, do not lose currency but shift the
averages are not used in the compos- turning points forward, reducing their
ite indexes, because they lose currency leads.
Table 2.—Standardization Factors and Weights for Components
Current index
Standardization
factor »

Component series

Revised index

Weight

Standardization
factor J

Weight

Ft = 0.134.4,

Leading index components:
Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

0.467

1.014

0.477

1.000

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs3....

5.374

1.041

5.236

1.000

Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials
industries

2.818

.973

2.714

1.000

Vendor performance percent of companies receiving slower deliveries*

3.840

1.081

3.423

1.000

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars

6.194

.946

6.110

1.000

Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits

5.064

1.054

5.095

1.000

Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in
1982 dollars smoothed*4

5.855

.986
.459

1.000

.324

.892

.174

1.000

2.633

1.149

2.640

1.000

.417

.932

.440

1.000

2.627

.959

1.951

1.000

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
industries smoothed*5
.
Change in sensitive materials prices smoothed*4

.. .

5

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding* . ..
Index of consumer expectations*

.

Coincident index components:
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

.321

1.064

.318

1.000

Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars

.502

1.003

.481

1.000

Index of industrial production

.924

1.028

.901

1.000

1.021

.905

1.000

1.000

Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
Lagging index components:
Average duration of unemployment in weeks 3

3.587

1.098

3.470

1.000

Ratio manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars*

.016

.894

.016

1.000

Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing— actual data as a
percent of trend*

.557

.868

1.251

1.000

.376

1.123

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars

.901

Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income*

.062

Change in index of labor cost per unit of output manufacturing smoothed* 3
Average prime rate charged by banks*

Change in consumer price index for services smoothed* 3

6

7

.355

1.000

1.009

.927

1.000

1.009

.067

1.000

.434

1.000

* First differences rather than symmetrical percent changes are computed for this series.
1. Except as noted, current standardization factors are computed over the period 1948-81.
2. Except as noted, revised standardization factors are computed over the period 1948-85 (or beginning with the first year after
1948 for which data are available).
3. Changes for this series are inverted; i.e., they are multiplied by -1.
4. In the current index, this series is smoothed with a 4-term moving average (weighted 1,2,2,1) placed at the end of the span.
5. In the revised index, this series is smoothed with a filtering technique developed by Statistics Canada.
6. This standardization factor is computed over the perjod 1966-81.
7. This standardization factor is computed over the period 1966-85.

JANUARY 1989



In the revised composite indexes,
a technique developed by Statistics Canada is used to smooth two
leading index components and two
lagging index components.
This
technique utilizes an autoregressivemoving-average filter that minimizes
the amount of lead time sacrificed for
a given amount of smoothing. The filtered series F is derived from the actual series A by applying the following
formula2:
_i - 0.586Ft_2

(The result is similar to a weighted
average of series A with weights for
the current month and the 6 preceding months equal to 0.134, 0.195,
0.204, 0.182, 0.145, 0.104, and 0.036,
respectively.)
Weighting of components. — In the
current composite indexes, each component is assigned a weight that reflects the overall performance score of
that series as a cyclical indicator. The
score for each indicator is based on an
evaluation of the time series characteristics mentioned in the discussion of
component selection: Cyclical timing,
economic significance, currency, statistical adequacy, conformity to business
cycles, smoothness, and revisions. Because only indicators of relatively high
quality are included as components of
the composite indexes, the weights fall
into a narrow range, and the effect of
the weighting is minimal (table 2).
In the computation of the revised indexes, the components of each index
are assigned equal weights. This procedure simplifies the construction of
the indexes and the analysis of each
component's contribution.
2. For the derivation of the formula, see Darryl
Rhoades, "Converting Timeliness into Reliability in Economic Time Series or Minimum Phase Shift. Filtering of
Economic Time Series," Canadian Statistical Review 55
(February 1980): vi-xviii.

99

Table 3.—Standardization Factors for
Composite Indexes
Curren t index '
Composite index

Leading index

Table 4.—Trend Adjustment Factors for
Composite Indexes
[Percent per month]

Revise d index 2

Index
Index
Average
Average
standard- absolute standardabsolute
ization
change3 ization
change 3
factor 4
factor4
0496

0.582

0.522

.852

1.000

.835

1.000

Lagging index

602

Composite index

Trend in
raw
index

Revised index a

Trend
adjustment
factor J

Trend in
raw
index

Trend
adjustment
factor J

0.625

Coincident index

Current index '

707

573

686

1. Factors are computed over the period 1948-81.
2. Factors are computed over the period 1948-85.
3. The average absolute change for each index is obtained
as follows: (a) For each month, an average of the standardized
changes of all components in that index is computed; (b) the
average without regard to sign is calculated from these monthly
averages for the entire period. For the current indexes, the
average in step (a) is computed from weighted standardized
changes.
4. This measure is the ratio of the average absolute change
in each index to the average absolute change in the coincident
index.

Trend adjustment of composite
indexes.—The current indexes include
an adjustment that sets the trend in
each index equal to a predetermined
target trend. The revised indexes undergo the same trend adjustment procedure, but use a revised definition of
the target trend (table 4). For the current indexes, the target trend is the average of the trends of the four components of the coincident index; for the
revised indexes, the target trend is the
trend of real gross national product
(GNP). This change has little effect on
the indexes, because the trend of real
GNP is almost the same as the average trend of the coincident index components. (For the revised indexes, the
target trend computed from real GNP
is 0.261 percent per month; it would
be 0.268 percent per month using the
same method as used in the current indexes.) The change is made because
economists consider the trend of real
GNP to be the more appropriate measure of the growth in aggregate economic activity.
Updating of composite indexes.—
Each month BEA updates the composite indexes to include the latest available data for their components. This
updating includes both the computation of a preliminary index value for
the latest data month and the recomputation of recent index values to incorporate revised component data. In
the current indexes, the updating covers 12 index values—1 new value plus
the 11 preceding values. In the revised
indexes, only six index values will be
computed each month—one new value
plus the five preceding values.
The shorter recomputation period
will pick up most routine monthly revi-

100



Leading index ..

0.132

0.139

0.118

0.142

Coincident index

.446

-.175

.447

-.186

Lagging index

.253

.018

.231

.030

1. Trends are computed over the period 1948-81.
2. Trends are computed over the period 1948-85.
3. The trend adjustment factor is the target trend minus the
trend in the raw index. The target trend is 0.271 for the current
indexes and 0.261 for the revised indexes.

sions in the index components. In order to pick up longer term revisions,
such as seasonal and benchmark revisions, the composite indexes will undergo annual recomputations to incorporate revised component data for earlier periods. The first recomputation is
scheduled for the fall of 1989.

Cyclical Patterns in the
Composite Indexes
The current and revised composite
indexes for 1948 through June 1988
are shown in chart 1, where the lead or
lag of each index at each business cycle
turning point is indicated. The chart
shows that the cyclical patterns in each
pair of indexes are very much alike;
that is, the current and revised indexes
show similar cyclical amplitudes, similar degrees of smoothness, and relatively minor differences in turning
points.
For the leading indexes, the revised
and current versions each have average leads of about 9x/2 months at business cycle peaks. The leads range from
2 to 20 months for the revised index
and from 3 to 23 months for the current index. At recent peaks, the lead of
the revised index at the January 1980
peak is 5 months longer than the lead
of the current index, and at the July
1981 peak it is 1 month shorter. The
false signals in the indexes are similar;
both indexes show obvious downturns
in 1950-51, 1966, and 1984 that do not
lead to recessions.
At business cycle troughs, the average lead of the revised leading index is
4.5 months, and the average lead of the
current index is 3.2 months. This difference is largely accounted for by the
8-month longer lead of the revised in-

dex at the February 1961 trough. The
leads at troughs range from 1 to 10
months for the revised index and 1 to
8 months for the current index.
For the coincident indexes, the turning points of the two indexes are the
same except for the July 1953 peak,
where the revised index is exactly coincident and the current index has a
2-month lead. More than half of the
turning points of each index are exact coincidences, and—except for the 6month lead at the August 1957 peak—
the rest fall within 3 months of the
business cycle turns.
For the lagging indexes, the average lag at business cycle peaks is 4.5
months for the revised index and 5.9
months for the current index. This difference is largely accounted for by the
9-month longer lag of the current index at the July 1981 peak. The lags at
peaks range from 2 to 13 months for
both indexes.
At business cycle troughs, the average lag of the revised lagging index
is 8.5 months, and the average lag of
the current index is 9.8 months. The
largest difference is at the July 1980
trough, where the lag of the current
index is 6 months longer. The lags at
troughs range from 3 to 15 months for
the revised index and 4 to 15 months
for the current index.
The differences in the turning points
are caused by the addition, deletion,
and modification of components, by the
use of updated statistical factors and
revised historical data, or by a combination of these. In all, there were 16
differences in turning points; in 9 of
them, the differences were only 1 or 2
months.
• In the leading index, the differences at the July 1981 peak and the
February 1961 and November 1982
troughs are caused primarily by updated statistical factors and revised
historical data. The four other differences are caused primarily by changes
in the selection of components.
• In the coincident index, the only
difference in the turning points (July
1953 peak) is the result of updated statistical factors and revised historical
data.
• In the lagging index, the differences at the March 1975 and July 1980
troughs are caused primarily by updated statistical factors and revised
historical data. The six other differences are caused primarily by changes
in the selection of components.

JANUARY 1989

Areas of Future Work
BEA plans to review the selection,
coverage, and presentation of data in
BCD. In addition, BEA has under way
further work on the composite indexes.
This additional research is focused on
three areas: First, on expanding the
coverage of the indexes; second, on
further improving the quality of some
components; and third, on providing a
theoretical framework for the indexes.

Coverage.—Users of the composite
indexes have suggested that measures
of service activity and of international
activity, areas that have been increasing in importance, be added to the leading index. As part of the current revision, BEA searched for leading indicators in these areas, but results
were marginal—one service series was
added to the lagging index. Work in
this area is continuing.
The available data on services were
found not to contain much cyclical vari-

ation. Many service activities continue
to grow during business cycle contractions as well as during expansions. In
a recent review of the cyclical indicators system, Geoffrey H. Moore, of the
Center for International Business Cycle Research, reached a similar conclusion; he concurred with BEA's relatively heavy reliance on manufacturing, construction, and trade in its system of indicators.
Moore developed a separate system
of indicators for services, based on six

Chart 1. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
1982 =100 (Ratio scale)

1967 =100 (Ratio scale)

150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

40 L-

1948

49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88

NOTE.—Peak (P) indicates the end of a business cycle expansion and the beginning of a
recession (shaded area). Trough (T) indicates the end of a business cycle recession and the
beginning of an expansion. Business cycle peaks and troughs are designated by the National

JANUARY

1989




3 length of leads
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The numbers entered on the chart indicate the li
( — ) and lags ( + ) in months from the business cycle turning dates.

101

monthly and two quarterly series, that
focuses on growth rates rather than on
levels of activity. The reference cycles
of his system are based on a chronology
of peaks and troughs in growth rates
of service activity—therefore, they differ from the reference cycle chronology
designated by the National Bureau of
Economic Research and used by BEA
to determine leads and lags. Although
this system of service indicators provides some gauge of leads and lags in
growth rates of services, it cannot be
readily combined with BEA's system of
composite indexes. When BEA revises
the selection of data published in BCD,
growth rates of some service activities
will be added.
BEA will continue to monitor data
on service activity. As service activity
evolves further and more data become
available, it may be possible to develop
cyclical indicators of services suitable
for inclusion in the leading index.
With respect to international activities, BEA attempted to find a measure that could be added to the leading index. However, an adequate measure of future foreign demand for U.S.
goods is not available. In addition,
in many cases data from foreign statistical agencies, which could be used
to construct a series, are not available
promptly. BEA will continue to monitor international data to determine if a
suitable component for the leading index can be developed.
Quality of components.—BEA and
the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System have compiled a new
series on changes in business and consumer credit outstanding. The new series differs from the one dropped in the
revision in two respects—preliminary
data are available for the most recent
month and the estimates cover all business and consumer credit rather than
selected components. BEA is monitoring the suitability of the new series—
particularly the size of its revisions—
for inclusion in the leading index.
BEA is considering the substitution of employee hours in nonagricultural establishments for the number
of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, which is now a component of
the coincident index. Both series have
shortcomings as business cycle indicators. Counting the number of employees gives equal weight to part-time and
full-time workers and counts workers

102




Origin of Business Cycle Indicators
Research at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER) explored the role of
individual economic time series in the business cycle and established the foundation for later
studies of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators. NBER's first list of cyclical indicators,
compiled by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, was published in 1938.
In 1946, Burns and Mitchell described business cycles as follows: "Business cycles are a
type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work
mainly in business enterprises; a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time
in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals
which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent
but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years;
they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating
their own." (Measuring Business Cycles, NBER (1946).)
In 1961, the U.S. Department of Commerce began publishing a monthly report that featured the NBER's leading, coincident, and lagging indicators. The composite indexes of cyclical
indicators were first published by the Department in 1968.

with more than one job more than once.
The hours series does not have these
drawbacks, but it may be distorted
when a holiday or severe weather falls
in the survey week. The Bureau of
Labor Statistics is developing adjustments to remove the effects of holidays. Suitable adjustments for the
effects of severe weather do not appear feasible. Once the adjustments
for holidays are incorporated, BEA will
compare the number of employees series with the hours series and will
decide which is the better coincident
indicator.
The Census Bureau is investigating
data sources that could be used to compile a net business formation series
that BEA could include in the leading index. A similar indicator was removed from the index in 1987 because
of statistical inadequacy.
Theoretical framework.—A better
understanding of the
theoretical
framework that underlies leading indicators can improve the analysis of indicators and may lead to a better system
of indicators. BEA and researchers
elsewhere are working on developing
such a framework for the cyclical indicators. In a recent study, Frank de
Leeuw, of BEA, notes five rationales
that underlie one or more of the components of BEA's index of leading indicators:

• A "prime mover" of the economy;
or
• The first difference of a series that
parallels economic activity.3

This study develops a theoretical
model, based on the dynamic theory of
production, that incorporates the first
three of these rationales. Simulations
demonstrate that under some conditions, but not under others, the theoretical model implies lead-lag relationships similar to those implied by the
index of leading indicators. The model
can be solved to yield a reduced form
that resembles the composite index of
leading indicators in some respects but
that differs from it in others. This reduced form is the basis for a "theorybased" indicator that the study compares with the official composite index.
"Prime movers," the fourth rationale in this study, are defined as
fiscal and monetary policies, foreign
economic developments, technological
changes, and other fundamental forces
that most experts believe have a major impact on economic activity. A second study by Frank de Leeuw, which
will appear in a forthcoming issue of
the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, documents the low representation of prime
movers in leading indexes for many
countries. It lists possible reasons for
low representation and considers ways
of improving the performance of prime
movers as leaders. Finally, the study
• An early stage in a production constructs a prime mover-based leading index.
process;
• An easily adaptable dimension of
3. Frank de Leeuw, "Toward a Theory of Leading
economic activity;
Indicators," Leading Economic Indicators: New Apby Kajal
• A market highly sensitive to expec- proaches and Forecasting Methods, editedUniversity
Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore, Cambridge
tations about activity;
Press, forthcoming.

JANUARY 1989

.

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HANDBOOK
OF
CYCLICAL 1
INDICATORS

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3 '^ iJ ?f ii
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KJ :;s r

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD)

HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS

. . . a monthly report that helps you analyze the current
eponomy and future trends.

. . . a statistical and technical supplement that helps you
make maximum use of the monthly Business Conditions
Digest.

BCD has "a plethora of charts that. . . provide more
information and perspective per minute of reading time than
anything else you can find," according to Edgar R. Fiedler,
former president of the National Association of Business
Economists. (Across the Board, February 1984.)

The HANDBOOK contains:
• Descriptions of all BCD series, providing definitions,
methods of compilation, coverage, and sources.
• Historical data for 1947-82 for all BCD series.

BCD contains:
• Charts providing a 25-year perspective for about 300
economic time series that cover all major aspects of
the economy. Expansions and contractions in the U.S.
economy are clearly marked so that the leading, coincident,
and lagging characteristics of the series are easy to
observe.

• Composite index methodology explaining the construction of the indexes in step-by-step detail.
• Reference materials including—
Scores for cyclical indicators
Average leads or lags for cyclical indicators

• Tables listing current data for all 300 series.

Measures of variability

• Appendixes providing historical data, cyclical turning
points, cyclical comparisons, and seasonal adjustment
factors.

Business cycle turning dates
Bibliography
Addresses of data sources.

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C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

Mar.

Feb.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

73. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION , DURABLE M A N U F A C T U R E S
( 1977 = 100)

1954. . .
1955 . . .
956...
957 . . .
958. ..
959...
960. .
.
961 ...
962. ..
1963.. .
1964. . .
1965 . . .
1966...
1967 . . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977 . . .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983...
1984. . .
1985...
1986. ..
1987...
1988. . .

ll Q

III

Q

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

44.9
45.0

41.2
47 .4
48.9
43.2
45.1

40.2
43.2
46.8
48.9
40.6

39.5
45.6
47 .0
48.0
39.4

9.1
6 .4
5.6
7.9
1.6

49.7
53.5

50.9
53.8

51.7
54.0

76.7
77.2
87 .6
98.0
95.8
83.5
91.8
102 . 1
110.9
113.5
107.4

59.7
70.4
78.7
77.0
81.2
85.0
73.6
78.6
89.6
98.4
95.2
84.0
91 .9
102.3
111.9
113.7
109.2

62.7
70.7
77.3
78.9
82.4
83 .4
73.0
78.7
91.3
98.9
92.6
84.5
94.0
102.2
113.0
113.0
112.0

64.2
72.2
77.8
79.8
83.0
82.5
76.0
79.4
92.3
96.8
87.7
85.6
95.1
103.9
114.4
113.3
111.8

99.3
110.9
126 .6
128.5

98.1
113.1
125 .8
127.8

96.3
114.4
126 . 1
127.4

96.2
114.9
126 .5
128.7

96.5
116.3
126.5
128.7

44.2
51.8
54.7
58.5
65.6
73.8
76.8
79.7
83.9
79.6
76.7
82.7
94. 1
94.4
82 .8
88.3
96.2
102.8
114.7
113.0
11.6
02.9
00.2
20.9
26 .7

133.8

133.7

136.8

136.7

137.3

130.5

46 .6
52.4
56.3
59.7
67.8
75.9
76 .3
80.6
83.9
78.8
77.1
85.0
95.7
95.3
80.7
90.4
99.4
107.0
113.8
106.8
112.2
101.0
104.6
123.5
127 .6
127.7
131.4

7 .7
8.8
3.0
6.6
1.1
9.8
7.0
6.4
80.6
84.6
77.8
76.4
86.4
97.3
95.5
82.4
92.1
101.6
110.1
113.6
105.7
112.8
99.3
110.9
126.0
127.9
128.1
133.7

34.8
38.9
40.8
41.6
40.9
46.2
47.7
48.2
51.6
54.5
58.1
61.5
5.7
7. 1
1.9
6.0
6.2
8.3
86.0
90.6
91.3
81.9
92.0
99.9
105.5
108.3
105.2
110.6
104.8
112.1
122.2

35.3
39.2
41.0
42.0
42.7
46 .9
47.2
49.2
52.1
55.0
58.6
62.4
66.6
67.8
73.0
76 .9
76.3
80.0
86 .9
91.4
91.3
86.4
93.3
100.6
106.5
108.4
105.8
110.9
105.3
116 .4
122.9

36.4
40.5
41 .4
41.3
43.8
46 .7
46.8
50.8
52.3
55.8
59.4
3.5
7 .0
0.0
4.1
6 .7
76.3
82.1
88.7
91.5
87.1
89.3
95.7
101 .6
107.4
108.6
107.8
107.6
105.4
117.8
122.9

35.2
39.1
41. 1
41.8
42.1
46.3
47 .4
48.8
51.8
54.6
58.2
62. 1
66.0
68.1
72.5
76.3
76.3
79.4
86.5
90.8
90.2
84.5
93.1
100.0
105.5
108.2
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.3

130.7
138.6

132.1
139.7

130. 1
136.8

0.6
2.3

40.3
43 .0

39.6
44.2

39.3
44.9

39.5
45.9

39.6
45.9

39.2
46.2

39.1
46.5

39.1
6.4

39.7
47.2

40.5
46.9

8.7
1.8
5.9
2.0
4.4
51.0
54.3
58.2
64.8
73.1
77.5
79.7
83.4
79.7

49 .2
40.4
46.9
51.5
44.0
52.0
54.7
58.5
65.4
73.7
76 .7
79.9
83.8
79.6

48.9
39.6
48.0
50.4
44. 1
52.4
55.0
58.7
66.5
74.7
76.2
79.6

48.2
38.7
49.4
49.6
45.7
52.8
55.7
59.5
67.1
75.6
76 .3
79.8

47.5
39. 1
50.5
49.2
46.7
52.4
56.5
59.7
67 .8
75.9
76 .4
80.9

48.3
40.5
50.9
48.1
47.5
52. 1

48.0
40.8
48.4
48.1
48.4
52.6

48.3
41 .8

7.4
2.3

46.2
42.5

47.9
49 .4
53.0

7.1
8.6
53.4

59.9
68.4
76.3
76. 1
81.1

60.6
69.8
76.6
75.8
80.7

61.0
69.7
76.8
76.8
80.6

61.6
69.8
77.6
76.5
80.4

79.6

79.0

78.8

78.5

81.9
93.1
94.8
84.8
86.9
95.3
102.4
114.0
112.7

82.8
94.6
94.2
82.6
89.1
96. 1
102.3
114.8
113.3

83.4
94.6
94.1
80.9
88.8
97.1
103.7
115.2
113.1

85.1
95 .0
94.1
81.2
89.3
98.5
106.4
112.1
109.9

85.0
95.5
95.6
80.5
91.1
99.4
106.7
114.5
106.2

85.0
96.5
96.1
80.5
90.8
100.3
07.9
14.8
04.2

78.4
76.8
85 .3
97.0
95.3
81.0
91.8
101.0
109.2
114.2
103.9

78.2
75.1
86 .4
96.9
95 .4
82.6
92.8
101.8
110.1
113.1
105.9

101.9
98.7
119.9
126.3
129.8
129.3

103.8
100.1
120.9
126.4

103.0
101.8
121.8
127.5

101.7
103.3
122.8
127.4

100.9
104.7
123.3
128.0

00.5
05 .9
24.5
27 .5

100.5
108.6
125.5
127.4

130.8

131.5

130.9

131.4

132.0

133.5

74. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, N O N D U R A B L E M A N U F A C T U R E S
( 1977 = 100)
34.6
8.5
1. 1
1.5
0.3
6.1
47.7

34.8
39.1
40.8
41.7
40.8
46.3
47.8

35.0
39.2
40.5
41.6
41.7
46.1
47.5

35.1
39.2
40.8
42.0
42.1
46 .9
47.6

35.1
38.9
41.0
42.0
42.8
46 .8
47.1

51.5
54.4
57.9

51.7
54.6
58.3

51.7
54.6
58.1

52.0
54.4
58.5

51.9
55. 1
58.7

35.6
39.5
41.1
42 . 1
43.1
46.9
47.0
49.3
52.3
55.4
58.7

40.5
47 .2
48.3
44.8
44.2
46.6
45.7
50.8
53.8
57 .6
62.2
71.1
77.9
78.6
82.2
83.6
74.2
78.9
91.1
98.0
91.8
84.7
93.7
102.8
113.1
113.3
111.0
107 .7
96.3
115.2
126 .4
128.3
129.1
136.9

36.3
40.5
41.2
41.2
44.0
46 .5
46.7
50.9
52.4
55.9
59.3
67.1
70.0
74.7
76.7
76.0
82 .0
88.5
92.0
87.5
89.4
95.5
101.9
107.3
108.6
107.7
107 .9
105 .7
117.9
123.2

67.2
70.6
74.0
76.9
76.7
82.8
89.5
90.5
84.0
90.0
96.2
101.8
107.9
108.4
108.4
106.3
105 .0
117.5
122.8

34.4
37.7
40.9
41.9
40.7
45.3
47.6
47.0
51.2
53.3
56.6
61.0
64.7
67.4
70.9
75.5
76.5
77.2
84.5
89.7
91.0
80.6
91.5
97 .9
102.5
107.4
109.1
109.7
106.3
108.4
121.0

36.9
40.9
41.6
41.2
44.0
47 . 1
46.5
51.2
52.5
55 .9
59.9

37.3
40.9
41.6
40.9
44.8
47 .8
46 .7
50.6
52.7
56.5
60.8
64.3

37.5
40.9
42.0
40.7
45.5
47 .4
46.9
51.3
53.3
56.8

38.3
40.8
42.1
40.6
45.6
47 .6
47 .3
51.6
53.8
56 .6

64.5

65.4

65.1

65.9

66.0

1968. . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. . .
1975...
1976 . . .
1977. . .
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983. . .
1984...

70.4
74.6
76.5
77.3
84.1
88.9
90.7
81.9
90.5
97.1
102 .4
107.1
109.6
109.4
105 .5
107 .5
119.9

70.8
75.6
76.8
77.2
84.3
89.8
90.7
80.9
92.
98.
102.
107.
109 .
109.8
107 .0
108.2
121.2

71.4
76.2
76.2
77.2
85.0
90.3
91.7
78.9
91.7
98.6
102.8
107.9
108.4
109.9
106 .3
109.4
121.8

7 1.4
75.8
76.4
78.0
86.0

72.1
76.1
76.2
78.1
85 .6

72.3
76 .2
76.1
78.8
86.3

66 .6
66.5
72.3
77.1
76 .8
79.7
86 .0

66 .6
68.3
73.2
77 .0
75.8
79.7
87.2

66.7
68.7
73.6
76 .6
76.2
80.6
87.4

90.9
80.5
91.7
99.4
104.9
107.9
107 .0
110.3
105.0
110.6
121.9

91.5
81.2
92.1
100.0
105 .3
108.8
104.9
110.7
104.8
112 .4
122.0

91.6
84.0
92 .2
100.2
106 .4
108.2
103.8
110.7
104.7
113.4
122.8

91.5
85.3
92.9
100. 1
106 .3
108.6
104.3
111.8
104.7
114.9
123.7

91.3
86.
92.
101.
106.
108.
105.6
110.8
105.5
116.2
122.6

91.0
87 .6
94.6
100.6
106.9
108.0
107.6
110.0
105.7
118.0
122.3

66.8
69.4
73.7
76.6
76.2
81.5
88.0
92.1
89.9
88.5
95.3
101.0
107 .0
108.9
107.3
108.6
105.5
117.9
122.7

1986...
1987 . . .
1988. . .

128.6
132.7

128.2
132.9

127.3
133.7

128.9
134.6

129.7
135.7

130.2
136.9

130.6
138.5

131.1
138.8

130.3
138.6

131.2
138.1

131.7
139.6

133.4
141.3

128.0
133.1

129.6
135.7

36.7
41.4
42.8
44.0
42.5

37.2
41.6
42.9
44.5
43.9

38.4
42.8
43.3
43.7
45.5

49.6
51.3
54.7
57.6
61.2
65.3
68.4
69.7
74.7
78.1
76 .5
81.2
87.4
91.7
89.4
87.2
93.6
100.7
105.4
102.9
102.2
104.4
101.6
112.0
118.1
120.3
124.4
128.7

49 .3
52.9
54.9
58.4
61.4
66.7
69.6
72.4
76.2
77.3
75.7
83.1
89.9
91.3
86.7
88.7
95.8
101.8
105.6
103. 1
104.1
102.5
101.1
113.9
118.8
121.4
125.5
129.4

75. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CONSUMER GOODS
( 1977=100)

1958...
1959 . . .
1960. . .
196 1 ...
1962. . .
1963...
1964. . .
1965.. .
1966.. .
1967 . . .
1968...
1969. ..
1970...
197 1. . .
1972...
1973. .
.
1974. .
.
1975...
1976. . .
1977. . .
1978. . .
1979...
1980. . .
1981...
1982...
1983.. .
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987 . . .
1988. . .

NOTE:

104

37.5
41.8
43.0

37.6
42.6
43.3

38.4
42.8
43. 1

39. 1
43.0
43.4

44.0

44. 1

43.6

44.0

46 . 1

46 .4

36.3
40.3
42.9
44.1
42.6

49 .6
51 .4
55.0
57.2
61.5
65 .0
68.5
69.2
74.1
78.4
77.5
81 .6
86.3
91.2

49.7
51.7
54.3
57.7
61.4
65.0
68.3
69.9
74.9
78.2
76.2
80.7
87.8
91.1

49.5
50.9
54.7
57.8
60.7

50.0
52.3
54.6
58.2
59.5

49.1
53.2
54.9
58.3
61.7

48.8
53.3
55.1
58.6
63.0

49.9
48.6
53.2
56.3
59.0

50.2
50.4
54.2
57.1
60.5

68.5
70.0
75.2
77.6
75.9
81.4
88.2
92.7

69.9
71.0
75.7
77.7
75.0
82.5
89.3
92.2

69.6
72.5
76.7
77.0
74.5
83.2
89.7
92 . 1

69.4
73.7
76.3
77.1
77.7
83.7
90.7
89.5

86.5
93.3
100.3
105.4
103.2
101.0
105.1
101.7
110.3
118.9
119.3
124.5
128.9

87.1
93.9
101.3
105.3
102 .6
102.1
104.9
102.0
112 .2
117.9
120.7
125.0
129.4

87.9
93.5
100.6
105.5
102.8
103.5
103.3
101.0
113.4
117.6
120.8
123.6
127 .7

87.9
93.9
101.3
105.4
102 .9
103.8
103.3
100.9
113.6
118.1
120.4
124.8
129.0

67.7
69.5
73.1
77.3
76.2
78.9
85.2
90.7
88. 1
80.7
91.4
98.3
101.5
105.3
103.6
104.5
101.4
103.7
117.1
118.6
122.6
126 .2

68.4
69.6
73.8
76.6
77.1
80.0
86.7
91.1
89.2
83.4
92.5
99.3
104.6
104.1
100.9
104.8
101 .
4
107.6
117.9
119.0
123.8
126.7

36.4
0.1
2.9

36.5
40.9
42.9

36.5
41.1
43.0

36.7
41.7
42.8

37.0
41.4
42.7

37.1
41.5
42.8

42.9
46 .9
50.3
48.4
52.9
55.8
59.2
63.9
67.4
70.0
72.7
76.7
75.8
78.9
84.9
89.8
88.2
80.8
90.5
98.0
100. 1
105.4
103.2
104.4
100.7
103.0
116.8
117.8
123.6
125.5

2 .6
7 .2
9.7
8.7
53.2
56.4
59.1
64.1
67.6
69.1
73.1
77.3
76.5
78.8
85.2
91.1
87.5
80.9
92.3
98.5
101 .6
105.0
103.6
104.3
101.9
103.7
117.3
118.7
122.9
126.4

42.3
47 .2
49.8
48.7
53.6
56.7
58.8
64.6
68.1
69.3
73.5
77.9
76.4
79.1
85.5
91.2
88.7
80.4
91.5
98.4
102.9
105.5
104. 1
104.7
101.7
104.5
117.2
119 .2
121.4
126.7

41.8
48.0
50.1
49.8
54.1
56.9
60.3
64.5
68.3
70.5
73.4
76.7
76.8
79.7
87.2
91.0
88.5
82.6
91.8
99.0
104.2
103.1
102.5
104.4
101.2
106.2
118.2
118.2
123.8
125.5

42 .5

43.3

50.4
50.4
54.4
57.0
60.7
64.9
68.3
69.1
73.8
76 . 1
77.2
79.8
86.3
91.1
89.2
83.0
92 .9
99.1
104.1
105.0
100.2
105.4
101.3
107.8
117.4
119.5
123.8
127.3

50.1
50.9
54.0
57.4
60.6
65.0
68.6
69.3
74.2
77 .0
77.4
80.4
86.7
91.3
89.9
84.7
92 .9
99.7
105 .4
104.3
99.9
104.7
101.8
108.8
118.2
119.3
123.7
127.2

These series contaii




A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD

37.1
41.6
43.0

36.0
39.9
43.0

'isions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.

39.9
45 .6
47.1
7.4
1.5
7 .7
8.5
7 .6
52.8
56.3
60.3
68.6
76.2
77.0
80.8
84.0
77.6
77.3
86.3
96.3
94.3
82.6
91.1
100.0
108.2
113.9
109.1
111.1
99.9
107 .7
124.2
127.6
128.4
133. 1

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

35.9
40.0
41.4
41.6
43.4
46 .4
47.2
50.3
52.0
55.6
59.1

1955 . . .
1956 . . .
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960. .
.
1961 ...
1962...
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
1966. . .

1954. . .
1955...
1956...

Annual

88.8
96.4
101.7
105.4
103. 1
104.3
102.7
101.3
113.6
119.1
121.7
125 .0
129.4

89.5
97.2
102.4
106.1
103.2
104.1
101.6
101.1
114.4
119.1
122.0
126 .6
129.8

37.3
1.6
3.1
4.2
3.8
8.0
9.8
0.9
4.3
7.3
0.5
5.3
68.6
70.3
74.5
77.3
76.4
80.8
87.3
91.2
88.4
84.9
93.3
100.0
104.3
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.0
119.8
124.0
127.8

(JANUARY 1989)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

76.
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...

33.5
31.8
37 .9
42.7
37.4
36.9
41.5
38.6
41.0
43.3
48.0
53.4
63.8
68.2
69.7
74.0
74.1
68.6
73.7
87.0
93.9
90.7
86.1
96 .2
104.4
122.1
125.2
127.0
118.3
109.2
128.1
138.2
142.1
138.6

Apr.

Mar.

Feb.

June

May

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

I N D E X OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N , B U S I N E .> S E Q U I P M E N T
( 1977-100)

43.7
46.8
52.5
61.2
67.7
68.7
72.3
75.4

31.9
34.2
39.9
42.1
34.0
40.0
41.3
38.8
42.5
44.0
49.9
56.3
66.1
68.1
70.6
75.4

71.2
82.4
96.5
98.7
85.3
90.1
102.7
116.8
126.3
126.0
126.3
108.6
120.7
137.8
138.5
139.4

71.5
84.5
96.6
98.0
86.1
93.1
103.2
119.0
125.5
127 .8
123.8
108.9
121.7
138.5
142.2
138.8
148.3

71.9
85.1
94.4
92.2
86.2
94.7
104.4
119.5
124.6
127 .4
122.8
109.9
123.0
137.0
141.6
139.5
149.8

68.6
74.8
88.1
94.4
88.6
87.2
96.4
105.6
123.4
126.1
127.6
119.0
109.5
129.0
138.8
140.9
140.7

67.7
77.8
91.4
97.3
85.2
88.1
98.7
110.5
124.4
123.4
129.2
115.0
112.4
132.6
140.6
138.5
142.7

79.2
87.5
86.0
83.2
76.2
79.0
77.9
78.2
81.8
83.8
86.2
89.6
91.2
85.7

79.7
88.4
86.5
81.4
76.4
78.2
77.5
79.6
81.4
84.3
84.6
89.8
91.6
86.0

80.9
88.3
85.8
79.4
79.1
78.5
75.8
80.8
81.8
84.3
86.8
89.6
90.1
87.2
85.0
75.1
78.4
85.3
87 .6
79.7
74.2
78.8
82.0
85.9
83.1
79.7
75.2
68.2
77.3
80.7
80.2
79.6
82.2

81.8
89.0
86.8
77.5
79.0
83.6
74.3
81.6
81.7
84.0
88.0
90.5
90.0
87.6
87.3
84.2
76.8
78.9
86.0
85.7
75.7
74.8
79.4
82.5
86.5
82.9
79.6
73.8
68.0
77.6
80.4
80.1
80.2
82.6

80.8
84.5
87.5
86.5
74.1
81.4
84.5
73.8
81.2
82.3
84.5
88.9
91.1
88.1
87.0
87.8
81.7
77.0
80.9
86.6
84.1
71.6
76.3
80.0
81.8
85.9
82.5
79.5
72.4
70.1
79.9
80.1
80.0
80.0

79.7
87.4
86.5
84.6
72.4
84.6
81.3
76.4
81.3
83.8
85.5
89.4
91.5
86.4
87.1
87.0
80.2
77.1
82.2
87.0
83.9
70.6
77.0
81.5
84.0
85.0
78.0
79.3
70.8
72.5
80.6
80.2
79.6
80.5

83.4
93.5
88.6
80.1
81.6
78.6
73.7
82.3
81.5
85.2
89.8
89.6
89.9

84.5
94.4
89.4
77.4
81.2
87.6
71.7
83.7
81.4
84.4
90.6
90.9
89.0

79.6
88.3
92.8
88.2
72.6
84.8
86.6
72.0
82.9
81.8
85.7
91.0
91.8

79.8
92.4
90.8
85.4
71.0
89.5
80.9
76.5
81.1
85.0
87 . 1
91.2
92.0

87.3
87.6
78.6
80.0
89.0
91.8
81 .6
76.1
81.7
85.2
88.6
86.2
81.9
78.7
69.0
79.3
81.0
79.5
78.5
82 .9

87.4
86.8
80.1
81.4
89.9
90.8
77.1
76.9
82.2
83.8
89.1
85.9
82.6
76.6
68.5
79.6
81.2
80.2
79.1
83.6

86.2
88.0
83.9
80.6
83.8
90.2
88.5
73.0
78.5
82.7
83.0
88. 1
85.7
82.3
75.2
71.5
81.7
81.1
79.6
78.7

87.2
88.1
82.1
81.2
85.3
90.9
87.6
71.1
80.0
84.6
86.3
87.5
80.1
81.1
72.4
73.6
82.4
80.3
78.3
79.4

32 .1
33.7
40.0
42.6
34.6
38.8
41.4
38.6
42.4
44.0
49.4
55.5
65.3
68.1
70.0
75.5

32.0
34.2
39.8
41.8
33.7
40.1
41.6
38.7
42.4
43.9
50.0
56.3
66.2
68.3
71.0
75.0

31.6
34.6
40.0
42.0
33.7
41.0
41.0

31.5
34.7
40.0
42.2
33.9
41.1
40.5

31.3
34.9
40.5
42.1
34.5
40.7
40.0

31.0
35.2
40.6
41.5
34.8
40.4
39.6

30.9
36.8
41.0
40.4
35.3
40.1
39.3

31.5
37.0
41 .6
39.4
35.9
39.5
39.2

42.8
44.1
50.2
57.1
66.8
68.0
70.9
75.8

43.2
44.7
50.8
58.1
67.9
66.6
70.2
76.5

43.6
45.8
50.8
58.1
68.2
67.8
70.8
76.2

43.6
45.7
51.2
59.2
68.9
67.5
71.6
77.0

43.7
46.5
50.8
60.1
68.7
66.9
72.2
77.2

69.0
74,8
88.4
94.2
88.8
87.9
96.6
105.1
123.6
127.1
128.0
119.8
109.4
128.7
138.9
141.3
141.7

68.3
76.0
88.9
95.0
86.4
87.6
96.5
107.4
124.5
126.0
127.9
118.8
110.0
130.2
139.3
139.2

67.9
77 .6
90.2
96 .0
86.0
87.7
98.3
109.8
122.7
125.3
128.3
116.8
111.5
130.6
140.8
139.6

67.5
77.8
91.3
97.8
85.1
88.5
98.4
109.8
125.2
123.0
128.9
115.0
112.4
132.6
141.8
138.6

67.8
78. 1
92.6
98.0
84.6
88.1
99.5
111.8
125.4
121.8
130.3
113.3
113.4
134.6
139.2
137.2

67.9
77 .7
93.3
98.3
84.2
89.1
100.8
112.6
125.2
123.2
131.1
113.2
114.6
135.9
140.3
139.4

68.9
79.0
93.6
96.7
85.1
89.3
100.7
114.3
124.4
123.9
128.7
110.1
117.7
138.5
140.9
139.1

70.5
80.8
95.6
99.1
85.0
89.4
102.5
115.5
126.4
124.5
127.9
110.3
120.8
137.0
140.5
139.6

80.8
84.1
87.4
87.0
73.8
81.4
84.6
73.5
81.4
82.4
84.7
88.7
90.9
87.9
87.1
87.8
81.8
77.1
80.9
86.9
83.9
71.6
77.0
80.1
81.5
85.9
82.7
79.4
73.0
70.1
80.0
80.0

80.2
85.8
87.0
86.4
72.7
82.5
83.2
73.9
81.9
82.6
84.4
89.3
91.6
87.1
86.9
88.1
81.3
76.7
81.3
86.8
84.0
69.9
76.5
80.4
82.1
86.0
82.1
79.5
72.3
70.9
80.3
80.3

79.4

79.8

79.9

79.4

87.8
85.0
71.3
84.0
82.3
75.4
81.7
83.5
85.6
89.3
91.5
87.2
86.7
87.4
80.7
76.9
82.5
86.8
83.4
70.5
76.5
81.1
83.8
84.4
80.1
79.3
71.2
71.7
80.5
80.2

86.3
84.2
71.9
84.9
81.5
76.4
81.3
84.0
85.6
89.4
91.6
86.2

85.3
84.6
73.9
84.8
80.2
77.3
80.9
83.9
85.4
89.5
91.5
85.7

81.5
84.3
74.3
83.0
79.7
78.1
81.5
83.3
85.9
90.3
91.4
84.9

78.8
87.3
84.9
84.2
75.7
79.5
79.1
79.0
81.4
83.5
86. 1
89.9
91.1
86.1

86.7
80.2
77.2
82.1
86.9
84.2
70.2
77.3
81.5
83.8
85.4
77.7
79.5
70.7
72.6
80.4
80.5

86.9
79.7
77.2
82.1
87.2
84.2
71.1
77 . 1
81.8
84.5
85.1
76.3
79.2
70.4
73.2
80.9
80.0

87.2
79.6
77.1
81.9
87.4
83.5
71.6
77.6
81.8
84.8
84.7
76.1
79.8
70.2
74.6
81.3
79.8

86.9
78.8
76.0
82 .8
87.2
83.3
72.7
77.7
82.4
85.0
84.0
77.1
79.2
69.8
75.7
81.2
80.2

86.5
77.9
77.3
83.3
87.4
83.2
73.4
77.8
82.1
85.3
83.7
78.1
77 .9
69.3
76.9
80.6
80.1

86.2
75.9
78.3
84.4
87 .7
82.2
73.8
77.9
82 .0
85.5
83.8
78.6
76 .7
68.4
77.2
80.7
79.5

79.6

80.0

80.3

80.2

80.4

80.8

81.5

81.5

81.3

82.0

1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...

79.8

80.0

79.0

78.8

93.5
88.4
75.0
82 .4
88.6
72.1
81.9
80.9
85.0
90.9
91.3
88.6
86.4
87.5
84.5
81.1
83.6
89.8
89.2
75.3
77.7
81.8
83.5
87.7
86.3
82.2
74.9
70.8
81.1
81.2
80.5
78.7

92.7
88.6
72.2
84.8
86.7
71.5
83.4
81.8
86.1
90.9
91.5
86.6
86.1
88.2
83.8
80.4
83.6
90.6
88.4

92.1
87.6
70.7
87.2
84.4
72.3
83.4
82.6
86.0
91.2
92.5
84.6
86.1
88.2
83.4
80.3
84.2
90.3
87.9

92.
86.
69.
88.
82.
74.
82.
83.7
86.8
91.7
92.0
85.1
86.5
88.2
82.6
80.6
85.4
90.6
86.9

79.5
93.5
77.9
85.4
74.4
83.4
79.5
79.7
80.2

79.6
92.8
86.6
85.8
77.4
75.4
77.9
81.5
80.7

80. 1
93.8
90.5
84.6
79.5
74.7
76.6
81.0
81.3

81 .8
93.8
89.6
82.5
79.5
73.0
75.7
81.8
80.9

78.8
82.6
82.5
88.3
85.5
82.3
76.0
71.5
81.9
81.1
79.8
78.7

78.9
83.6
83.1
88.4
85.2
82.5
74.7
72.2
82.2
81.0
78.5
78.7

79.4
84.2
86.0
87.5
83.0
80.7
73.4
73.0
82.2
80.5
78.7
79.1

80.1
92.5
90.5
84.9
70.1
89.5
80.7
76.8
80.7
85.7
87.4
91.1
92.3
83.8
87.5
87.7
82.1
81.4
85.3
90.8
88.0
70.5
80.1
84.6
86 .3
87.5
79.6
80.8
72.2
73.8
82.4
80.2
78.3
79.3

88.3
92.7
92.1
83.0
87.3
88.2
81.7
79.4
84.9
92.0
87.3
71.5
80.4
84.8
87.2
87.1
76.3
83.4
71.0
75.8
82.8
79.8
78.1
80.6

88.6
92.3
91.8
85.1
86.3
88.8
82.4
78.7
86.0
91.9
86.6
73.5
81.0
84.2
87.1
86.6
77.3
83.0
70.8
76.8
82.8
79.8
77.9
81.1

89.3
90.1
91.6
84.2
86.4
88.7
81.7
80.0
86.9
91.5
86.7
74.8
81.2
84.8
87.2
86. 1
78.5
81.7
69.9
78.4
82.2
79.9
77.7
81.2

88.8
90.1
91.3
85.0
86.2
88.4
79.3
80.1
88.1
92.0
85.8
75.4
81.1
85.1
88.1
86.4
79.3
80.3
69.2
79.1
81.1
79.5
77.9
82.1

(PERCENT)

31.3
34.9
40.4
41.9
34.4
40.7
40.0
39.5
43.5
45.4
50.9
58.5
68.3
67.3
70.9
76.6
73.1
69.1
79.2
94.2
98.0
84.8
89.3
101.3
114.1
125.3
123 .9
129.2
111.2
117.7
137.1
140.6
139.4
145.8

31.3
37.1
41.6
39.3
35.8
39.9
38.9
40.7
43.6
46.7
52.3
61.3
68.4
68.3
72.5
75.9
69.7
71.5
84.0
95.8
96.3
85.9
92.6
103.4
118.4
125.5
127 . 1
124.3
109.1
121.8
137.8
140.8
139.2
148.9

31.9
34.6
40.1
41.7
35.2
39.5
40.6
39.4
42.8
44.9
50.3
57.6
66.7
68.0
71.0
75.6
72.9
69.3
79.0
92.4
96.5
86.1
89.3
100.0
112.2
124.7
125.1
127 .6
113.6
115.4
134.2
140.2
139.5
144.5

79.1
87.5
84.1
83.9
75.4
80.5
78.9
78.4
81.6
83.5
86.1
89.9
91.2
85.6
86 .7
86.9
78.8
76.8
82.7
87.3
83.3
72.6
77.7
82.1
85.0
84.1
77.1
79.0
69.8
75.7
81.0
80.0
79.6
81.4

80.8
88.6
86.4
79.4
78.2
80.1
75.9
80.7
81.6
84.2
86.5
90.0
90.6
86.9
87.2
85.1
75.9
78.5
85.2
87 .0
79.2
74.3
78.7
82.2
86 .0
83.3
79.3
75.2
68.2
77.4
80.6
79.9
79.8
82.3

80.1
87 .0
86.1
83.6
75.0
81.6
80.1
77 .3
81.4
83.5
85.6
89.5
91.1
86.8
87.0
86.7
79.2
77 .4
82.8
87 .0
82.6
72.2
77 .4
81.4
84.2
84.6
79.2
78.2
70.3
73.9
80.5
80.1
79.7
81.0

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




Annual

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

81.3
83.5
88.2
86.2
75.7
80.2
85.6
74.1
80.2
81.9
84.5
88.6
90.9
89.4
87.1
87.4
82.1
77.2
80.5
86.0
84.5
73.2
75.5
79.5
81.8
85.8
82.8
79.5
71.9
69.4
79.4
80.0

NOTE:

IV Q

MANUFACTURING

1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...

80.5
93.5
89.2
85.4
73.8
90.1
79.5
78.0
80.1
85.7
87.2
90.8
91.8
83.3
87.5
88.5
81.5
81.6
85.1
91.3
87.8
71.5
80.4
84.9
86.5
87.6
77.6
81.9
71.6
74.1
82.5
80.2
78.0
79.8

Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
33.1
32.2
38.4
43.2
36.3
37.4
41.7
38.4
41.6
43.6
48.0
54.2
64.1
68.2
69.9
74.2

32.6
32.6
38.8
43.4
35.3
37.8
41.9
38.2
42.1
43.6
48.3
55.0
64.8
68.1
70.3
74.7

CAPACITY U T I L I Z A T I O N RATE,
(PERCENT)

III

31.6
37.6
42.1
38.2
36.2
40.1
38.3
41.1
43.5
46.7
53.5
62.5
68.7
69.4
73.0
75.2

33.1
32.3
38.4
43.6
36.1
37.4
41.8
38.3
41.6
43.9
47.7
54.3
63.6
68.3
69.7
74.0

82.

II Q

79.7
93.4
85 .0
85.3
77.1
77.8
78.0
80.7
80.7
83.6
88.7
91.7
91.8
84.1
86.7
88.6
81.9
79.4
85.9
91.8
86.9
73.3
80.9
84.6
87.2
86.6
77.4
82 .7
70.6
77.0
82.6
79.8
77.9
81 .0

83.2
93.9
89 .2
80.0
80.8
79.7
73.7
82.6
81.3
84.8
89.7
90.2
90.1
85.7
87.0
87.6
79.3
80.5
89.0
91.5
81.5
76.1
81.7
84.7
88.6
86 .2
81.3
78.5
68.9
79.3
81.1
79.7
78.5
82 .9

80.6
92.0
89.4
84.7
75.4
82.9
79.8
77.9
81.5
83.8
87.8
91.0
91.4
85.1
86.8
88.1
81.8
80.4
86.0
91.1
86.1
73.4
80.2
84.1
86.3
87 . 1
81.1
81.2
71.8
75.4
82.0
80.2
78.6
80.5

(JANUARY 1989)

105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

III III III III III II

Foreign currency per U . S . dollar
Year
and
mo n t h

Japan

West
Germany

France

United
Kingdom

( D . mark)

(Franc)

(Pound)

\

1988
Jan. . . .
Feb. . . .

127.69
129.17
127.11
124.90
124.79
127.47
133.02
133.77
134.32
128.68
123.20
123.61

Mar
A p r . . ..

May
June. . .
July. . .
Aug. . ..
Sept.. .
Oct
Nov
Dec

5.5808
5.7323
5.6893
5.6704
5.7348
5.9310
6.2241
6.3919
6.3515
6.1975
5.9746
5.9994

1.6537
1.6965
1.6770
1.6710
1.6935
1.7579
1.8466
1.8880
1.8668
1.8165
1.7491
1.7563

0.5553
0.5688
0.5456
0.5324
0.5349
0.5628
0.5865
0.5894
0.5938
0.5751
0.5529
0.5477

2

127.08

2

2

1.8320

2

6.2428

Jap an (y

X /\r ^ -\
^W

-

xT

West Germany (d. mark) ^
V
f1K/
s

^*v

\

A
I

y- ->*x

/

(Lira)

Canada
(Dollar)

\ 'X *J

Feb....
Mar
Apr
May
June. . .
July.. .
Aug
Sept. ..
Oct
Nov
Dec

89.29
91.09
89.73
88.95
89.74
92.58
96.53
98.29
97.91
95.10
91.91
91.88

1989
2

1342.87

2

2

1.1924

94.98

Feb
Mar

_,.

^

f\

^

J

w\

n
^^J

III

D

700).

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

106




0.7
0.6

~

/\

v'

^

^\
\

y\ D

0.5
2000
1800
1600

-

1400
1200
1000

^Sr -^v*> A'

Can ada ( dolla -)

* /~-

< ~ i,
V— *s^s ~^s.
yv

/^

^

•^v

>

III

Exchange value of the U.S. dollar ft
(index: March 1973 = 100) ^ N/
/^
/\ '

"N, •^^ /v /
III III

III III

|

5

0.9
O. n
o

—
_

Av

s

s~*~

8

—

g-

r

7

—

—

\f \

y
A

10
9
8

—
—

./ V v/*

Ital V (lir

/

O

fJ

f

1.8

—

/\ r

V

f*S

2.0

D

v"\

/

N /\

A

1 1 III

—
/^•^

*>»!.

^^v-

^^

800
1.6
1.4

-I

\
\

—

1.2

—
—

1.0
160

—

140

-

120

\

V.
^**

^D
III III ^ in III
III

76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
1
This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U . S . dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p.
2
Average for January 3 through 27.

120
2.8

-

^\
\

r

-

Apr. . . .

May
June. . .
July. . .
Aug. . . .
Sept. . .
Oct
Nov. . . .
Dec

<—-

__

2.4

\

y /\

r\r

(March 1973=100)

1.2855
1.2682
1.2492
1.2353
1.2373
1.2176
1.2075
1.2237
1.2267
1.2055
1.2186
1.1962

1216.88
1249.62
1240.67
1240.99
1258.81
1305.56
1367.26
1397.93
1393.15
1353.36
1300.22
1295.61

160

—

Uni tedKi ngdorn (po und)

Exchange value
of the U . S .
dollar1

1988
Jan. . . .

~~

D
'
^

/

Italy

240
200

\
\\

^•'X tj A

>

\ ranee (fra

Foreign currency per U . S . d o l l a r

Jan. . . .

280

VS

0.5632

Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June. . .
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov
Dec

.

Ratio scale
— 320

V

1989

Year
and
month

in

Foregn currency per U.S. dollar—
(Yen)

Jan. . . .

III III III

Mi N I III III
I

100
~*^

80

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index

Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 1 (thous )
8. Mfrs. 1 new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). •
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1982 dol., smoothed 2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed 2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil. d o l . )
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent)
910. Composite index of leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

Sept.
1988

.

41.2

Nov.
1988

Oct.
1988

41.2

Sept.
to
Oct.
1988

Dec.
1988

41.2

Oct.

Nov.

to

to

Nov.
1988

Dec.
1988

p41.0

0.00

0.00

-0.20
-0.17

283

291

305

0.01

-0.09

87.85

87.88

r89.52

P92.97

0.00

0.10

66

60

56

56

-0.26

-0.18

0.00

r43.61

•

282

r43.35

r44.40

P46.79

-0.01

0.06

0.15

124.9

0.27

0.00

0. 13

NA

0.10

-0.03

NA

-0.15

-0.03

0. 14

-0.16

0.17

0.25

.

111.2

120.9

120.9

.

r!8.75

r22.59

p21 .41

-0.07

-0.14

267.97

277.40

271 .02

276.51

0.24

r2,452.9

2,445.7

r2/451.8

p2,453.9

-0.10

0.09

0.04

NA

0.30

-0.09

NA

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) . . .
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . . .
930. Composite index of lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

0.28

r2.7

r7.9

p6.4

0.13

r!92.7

r!93.7

r!93.4

p!94.6

0.52

-0.15

106,737

r!06,973

r!07,377

p!07,656

0.18

0.31

0.28

2,802.1

r2,835.0

r2,822.7

p2,844.3

0.58

-0.22

0.49

138.6

139.3

r!39.8

p!40.2

0.14

0.10

0. 10

451,425

r456x315

p457,227

NA

0.24

0.04

NA

178.9

rl80.7

rl80.8

p!82.1

1 .01

0.06

0.72

r!3.5

r!3.4

r!2.6

0.05

0.44

-0. 17

1.54

rl .53

pi .53

NA

-0.13

0.00

NA

rlOO.9

rlOO.3

plOO.1

0.44

-0.22

-0. 11

10.00

10.00

10.05

10.50

0.00

0.04

0.46

r362,405

r364,086

365,579

p371,508

0.12

0.11

0.62

15.88

r!5.73

p!5.87

NA

-0.58

0.54

NA

r!48.0

r!47.9

r!49.3

p!50.5

-0.07

0.95

0.80

99.7

12.8

0.62

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
Hhis series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
2
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
3
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.




107

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars..
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars....
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures

Current issue
Series (Page numbers)
number Charts Tables

604

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

10/87

58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973

22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38

65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76

12/88
8/87
8/87
8/87
10/88
10/88
10/88
8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87

'23'

616
55

56
22

92
65

10/87
8/88

56
39

20
37
37
37
23
37
37
37
37
37

B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building—See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving

Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded..
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Eleven leaders, index
Eleven leaders, rate of change
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability

See notes at end of index.

108




93
94

33
33

72
72

11/88
11/88

35
35

29
76

13,25
24

67
67

5/88
12/87

24
12

14
12
13

33
23
23

72
65
65

6/87
1/88
1/88

34
21
21

101
72
112
295

15,35
35
32
46

73
73
71
82

7/88
7/88
7/88
11/88

32
32
32
26

82
84

20
20

64
64

11/87
11/87

14
14

97
11
965
333

24
24
37
48

66
66
75
86

5/88
5/88
5/88
3/88

22
22
22
51

914
35
34

1/86

29
29

60
70
70

5
26
26

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

62
89
62,89

2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
9
9

920
920c
951
940
9

10
39
36
11
23

101
72
112

'74'
60
66

5/88
5/88
12/87
11/87
5/88

5
5
21

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

7/88
7/88
7/88

32
32
32

345
280

49
45

87
82

11/88
11/88

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

10/88

46

11/88

46

60

346

49

340

49

87

341
348
349

49
50
50

87

5

8/88
7/87
7/87
9/88

920
920c
940

10
39
11

930
930c

10
39

914
910
910c
915
917
916

10
39
11
11
11

60

"60"

5/88
5/88
11/87

60

10/87
10/87

60
60

1/86
6/88
6/88
1/88
1/88
1/88

'so'
60
60

5
53
53

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales...
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.

Credit

Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP

Current issue
(page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

29

13,25

9
69

23
24

66
67

5/88
9/88

21
17

248
87
89
249
28
334

25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22

67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65

8/88
10/88
8/88
8/88
10/88
5/88
3/88
9/88
12/87

40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

5/88
5/88
11/88
2/88

33
33
33
34

320
322
58

49
49
22

84,95
84
65

3/88
3/88
12/88

49
49
20

525

53

90

12/88

55

20

12,23

66

9/88

21

10
116

23
34

66
73

9/88
5/88

21
35

5/88

11/88

110

32

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

7/88
7/88
7/88

32
32
32

66
113
95
39
111
33

35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32

73
72
73
72
72
71

5/88
5/88
11/88
2/88
7/88
9/86

33
33
33
34
31
31

69
85

4/88
3/88

51
50

98
331

12/87

557

517
543
580
578
577
525

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
91
90

12/88
10/87
10/87
12/88
12/88
12/88

55
55
56
56
56
55

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

9/88
9/88
8/88
8/88
8/88

17
15
17
15
5
43
43

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

2/88
1/88

34
17

965
951
974
963
966

37
36
38
36
37

5/88
12/87
8/87
7/88
12/87

22
5
37
5
12

962
975
952
950
964

'36*
38
36
36
37

971
970
960
972
967

'38'
38
37
38
37

973
976
978
977
968
961

38
38
38
38
37
36

75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77

Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans.
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls.
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance,
Inventories, manufacturing and trade.
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries.
New orders, durable goods industries, components.
New orders, manufacturing
Plant and equipment expenditures.
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing.
Selling prices, retail trade..
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks.
Workweek, manufacturing..
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.

2/88
8/87
12/87
6/87

37
5
5
15

8/87
10/88
5/88
8/87
1/88

37
23
37
37
25

8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
12/88
7/88

'37'
37
37
37
25
5

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

E
Earnings— See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel military
Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagncultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Workweek manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek manufacturing Dl
Equipment— See Investment, capital.
Exports— See International transactions.

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

441
578
577

51
55
55

48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
43
44
45
1

39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16

961

'36'

89
91
91
61
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74

Historical
data
(issue date)

2/88

12/88
12/88
7/88
7/88
7/88
8/87
7/88
7/88
2/88
8/88
2/88

12/87
2/88
2/88
2/88
7/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
5/88
7/88
7/88

Series
description
(*)

9
56
56
"5"

5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
5
"5"

F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government— See Government.
Federal Reserve member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment— See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food— See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade— See International transactions.
France— See International comparisons.
Free reserves

119

34

72

6/88

35

94
213
917

33
40
11

72
80
60

11/88
10/88
1/88

35
38
5

311

48

84

8/88

49

93

33

72

11/88

35

G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures .
State and local receipts .
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total .
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars .
Federal, percent of GNP.
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars ....
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed -weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences .
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml ...
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment— See Investment, capital.

49

20

63

8/88

14

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81

11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

311
68

48
30

84
70

8/88
8/88

49
28

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

19,40

10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88

3l'
20
48
40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

46
60

16
16

61
61

12/87
2/88

9
9

1

12,16

5

36
16

61
77
74
61

7/88

961
21

7/88
7/88

5
5

39'
40

11/88

8/88
8/88

8/88
8/88
8/88

10/88

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Series
number

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts Tables

28
29
89
249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

10/88

24
24
40
40

310

48

84

8/88

38

345
280

49
45

87
82

11/88
11/88

46
46

Historical
data
(issue date)
5/88
5/88
8/88

Series
description
(*)

1
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports— See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest net percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production— See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components.
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change.
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit— See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income.
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate ....
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields.
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada ,
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany

64

30,47

70,83

10/88

46

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

88
73
82

11/88
11/88
11/88

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

83
80
80

11/88
10/88
10/88

26
11
11

227

40

80

10/88

11

340

49

87

8/88

5

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

8/88
8/88
8/88

5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11

51c
51
108
282

39
14,19
31
45

283
284

11/88
11/88
10/88
9/88
9/88

'63'

9/88
9/88

71
82

11/88
11/88

11
30
47

47
45

83
82

11/88
11/88

47
47

285
348
349

47
50
50

83
88
88

11/88
7/87
7/87

47
53
53

53
13
335

19
23
48

63
65
85

9/88
1/88
3/88

11
21
51

76
75
557
73
74
47

24
22
54
20
20
14,20,58

12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87

12
12
13
12
12
12

966
47c

37
39

67
65
91
63
63
63,94
78
75

12/87
12/87

"\2

967
23

37'
28

79
75
69

1/88
1/88

25
25

5
962
45
288
289

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

2/88
2/88
5/88

11/88
11/88

8
8
8
47
47

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86

1/88
5/88
6/88
6/88
5/88
2/88
5/88
5/88
3/88

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

733
736
737
738
732
320
735

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
3/88
4/88

60
61
61
61
60
49
61

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

58
58
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94

11/88

59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

6/88
6/88
6/88
6/88
6/88

12/87
6/88

See notes at end of index.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International comparisons— Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP.
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, change.
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars.
Manufacturing and trade, Dl...
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change— See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars .
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP.
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business Dl
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy— See International comparisons.

Series
number

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

12/88
12/88
12/88
12/88
12/88
12/88
12/88

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93

8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

255

44

82

10/88

44

250
251

44
47

82
83

10/88
10/88

44
44

30
245
247
559
65
77
915
71
31
70
975

26,42
42
47
54
27
15,27
11
27
26
27
38

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76

10/88
10/88
10/88

8/87

40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37

36

13,26

68

12/88

17

78

27

68

12/88

17

38

26

68

12/88

17

97
11
965
914
9

24
24
37
'23'

66
66
75
60
66

5/88
5/88
5/88
1/86
5/88

22
22
22
5
21

69

24

67

9/88

17

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

10/88
10/88

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

8/88
8/88
8/88

10/88
10/88
10/88

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

66

9/88

15

24

23

66

9/88

15

10/87
10/88
10/88
8/88

10/87
8/88
8/88

10/87
8/88

11/88
10/88
10/87
8/88
8/88

9/88

12/88
12/88
1/88

12/88
12/88
12/88

8/88

10/88

20
10
100
61
970

12,23
23
24
24
38

66
66
67
67
76

9/88
9/88

21
21

10/88
10/88
10/88

23
23

652
651

57
57

93
93

8/88
8/88

57
57

J
Japan— See International comparisons.

L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force— See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
See notes at end of index.

110



68
63

30
30

70
70

10/88

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
70
70

10/88

930
930c
952

10
39
36

60
74

8/88

9/88
9/88

10/87
10/87
12/87

28
28
28
28
28
5
5

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Leading indicators, eleven
Composite index
Composite index rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
oans— c> e ueuit.

Series
number

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

5

950
14
104

10
39
36
33
31

'74'

72
71

6/88
6/88
6/87
6/87
5/88

78

27

68

12/88

17

38
84
8

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

12/88
11/87

17
14
15

917

11

60

1/88

5

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
8/88
9/86
6/88
5/88

29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

9/88
9/88
9/88

15
15
15

20

12,23

66

9/88

21

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

9/88
9/88
9/88
9/88

21
15
15
15

964
971

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

9/88
8/87

15
37

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

8/88
8/88
8/88

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

12/88
10/87
6/88

55
55
58

580

54

91

10/87

56

49

20

63

8/88

14

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
70
88
88
64
64
61

9 '88

7/88

28
28
52
52
14
14
5

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

8/88

10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

11/88
11/88
10/87

48
48
56

910
910c

60

"5"

34
29

M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices— See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade— See International transactions.
Military— See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply Ml, constant dollars
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields

9/88

11/88

N
National defense— See Defense.
National Government— See Government.
National income— See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars.
Durable goods industries, current dollars.
Components ...
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

10/88

o
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output— See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

9/88

10/88
10/88
11/87
11/87

p
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over.
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income— See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers'durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production- See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAd|, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade. Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors'income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rentai income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of nationahncome
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
20
10
100
61
970
90

12,23
23
24
24
38
17

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

66
66
67
67
76
62

9/88
9/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
2/88

21
21
23
23
9

320
322

49
49

84,95
84

3/88
3/88

49
49

311
310
26

48
48
29

84
84
70

8/88
8/88
10/88

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
4/88

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

1/88
1/88

25
25

98
99

28
13,28

69
69

4/88
4/88

51
25

19
968
26

13,28
37
29

69
75
70

12/88
12/88
10/88

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

8/87
8/87
8/87
12/88
2/88

37
37
37
55
35

88

25

67

8/88

40

370
358
916

50
50
11

88
88
60

10/88
10/88
1/88

52
52
5

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

8/88
8/88
8/88
8/88

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

11/88
11/88
8/87
5/88
1/88
1/88
8/88

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

8/88
11/88

26
47

283

47

83

11/88

47

967
23
284

37
28
45

79
75
69
82

i/88
1/88
11/88

25
25
47

285
93
89

47
33
25

83
72
67

11/88
11/88
8/88

47
35
40

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
S
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars.
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars.
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices....
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.

Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

Current issue
Series (Paie numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

249

47

83

10/88

59
54

22
22

65
65

11/88
11/88

213

40

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14.22
22
38
15,27
22
22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

11/88
11/88
8/87
12/88
11/88
11/88

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88

99
588

28
13,28
54

69
69
91

4/88
4/88
9/88

51
25
17

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

1/88
1/88

25
25

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

12/88
12/88

25
25

114
115

34
34

72
73

5/88
5/88

62
61
61
74

2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88

91
60
5
962

15,18
16
12,16
36

446
445
447
444
37

51
51
51
51
18,51

62,89

43
44
45

18
18
18

62
62
62

561
96
25

54
21
21

91
64
64

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries..

107
31
108
31
32 12,21

1

12,16

961

36

20
20

10/88

U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average.
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
Civilian
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment.
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products...
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change.
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.

W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index

Series
description
(*)

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

2/88
2/88
15
15
15

71
71
64

11/88
1/88

61
77
74

30
30
17

7/88

7/88

NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




111

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. "M" following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99r 106,
111) (M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source
2
(26,68)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3
(17,62)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (29,69)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(1160)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Soureel
(11,60)

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(12,16,61)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)

28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
land 2
(12,21,64)

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

112



30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

3

43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3

(14,17,62)

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).—The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source

1

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1
(19,63)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1 (19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sourcesl and 2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board

(16,61)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sourcesland4
(15,30,70)

89. Gross private residential fixed investment
dollars (Q).-Source 1
Ratio, civilian employment to population
ing age (M).-Sources 1 and 3

63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source

950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Sourcel
(36,74)

91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—

61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars(Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

3

Source 3

(30,70)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

Free reserves (M).—Source 4

in 1982
(25,67)
of work(17,62)

I-C. Diffusion Indexes

(15,18,62)

951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
960.

(33,72)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4

(33,72)

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (EOM) .—
Source 2
(27,68)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indus-

personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4
tries (EOM) .-Source 2

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source

(15,35,73)
(21,64)

(35,73)

961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962.

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufac-

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)

turing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board

4

(24,66)

98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67)

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel
(24,67)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current
dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68)

dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)

102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
4

105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4

106.

(Q).-Sources land 4

Sources 1 and 4
4

112.




966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
40-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).-Sourcel

(32,72)

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).-Source4

(34,72)

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer

(34,73)

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)

119.

Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

(34,72)

(38,76)

971.

Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

972.

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

973.

Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)

Source 4

(25,67)

87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)

(32,72)

113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—

86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(37,75,77)

(35,73)

(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
4
(20,64)
(31,71)

964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2

110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding

Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)

963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).-Source
3
(36,74)

(31,71)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source

82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
Source 4
(20,64)

85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4

(31,71)

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—

credit markets (Q).-Source 4

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)

(31,71)

Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(13,31,71)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml

79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

(31,71)

(36,74)

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(37,75)

974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976.

977.

Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982

dollars (Q).-Source 1
245

Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q)-Source 1

(42,81)

247 Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1

(47,83)

248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a

percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
250

Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
290.

Gross saving (Q).-Source 1

292.

Personal saving (Q).—Source 1

(46,82)

293.

Personal saving rate (Q).—Source 1

(46,83)

gross national product (Q).—Source 1

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)

252

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

253

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

255

200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
(40,80)

(47,83)

Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
Imports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1

(44,82)

256 Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1

(44,82)

(46,82)

295.

Business saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)

II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q).-Source 1

311.

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of

II-A. National Income and Product

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(42,81)

(48,84)

Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)

320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).—Source 3
(48,85)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)

257

Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)

(40,80)

260

220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)

Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

261

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)

Government purchases of goods and services in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

262

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)

263

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

265

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q) .-Source 1
(43,81)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

*68. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2

235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

114



(45,82)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
£83 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
286

2g7

333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source3
(48,85)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).—Source 3 (50,88)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)

Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

441.

Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

442.

Civilian employment (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

(45,82)

(M).-Source 3

(51,89)

445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3

(51,89)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).—
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II-D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production (M).Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).—Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M) .-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

II-E. U.S. International Transactions

510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

(52,90)

512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports (M).-Source 2

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military

(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military

(Q).-Source 1

(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)

736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
(57,93)
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central

557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).—Source 4
(54,91)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)

(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- II-F. International Comparisons
vices, national defense (Q).—Source 1
(55,91)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
(13,28,59,69,96)




735. West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis

(57,93)

652. Income on foreign investment in the United States

561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).
-Source 2
(54,91)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)

Statistical Office (London)

(59,96)

743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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