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BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
'January 1966
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
This report was prepared IB the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm — Computation of
business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—New projects,
Barry A, Beckman—Specifications
for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstail-—Collection and
compilation of basic data,
John C. Musgrave—Selection of
seasonal adjustment methods.
Editorial supervision is provided by
Geraldine Censky of the Administrative and Publication Services Division,
Stuart I: Freeman is responsible for
publication design.
Hie cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged.
The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of scries and
sources on the back cover of this
report.
Subscription price is $6 a year ($1.50
additional for foreign mailing). Single
issues are 60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an
additional charge. For information
about domestic or foreign air mail
delivery, write to the Superintendent
of Documents (address below), ea*
closing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. S«nd to
U.S, Government Printing Office,
Washington, D,C, 20402, or to any
U.S. Department of Commerce Field
Office.




BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician

PREFACE.
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.

?

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\

January 7966
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER
Series ESI No. 66-1

New Features and Changes for This Issue ___________________________
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
_______________________________

iii
iv

Introduction __________________________________________________
Method of Presentation ______ . ___________________________ ________
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points _____ ._____ _____________
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments ____ _ ______ _ _______ _____
MCD Moving Averages ____________________________ ._ ______ _ _____
Analytical Measures of Current Change _______________________ _____.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns _______________ . ______ _ ____________
Charts _______________________________________________________ .
How to Read Charts 1 and 2 _ _ „ _____ _ ______________________ _ _ _ _

1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6

TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months __________________ _ _____ 8
CHART L Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present _________ _ _____ 10
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series _______ _ ______ „ _ _ _ _ _
24

TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE

CVCUK




3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods __ 38
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
_________________
39
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
_______________________
42
5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components _ _ _ _____. _______ 46

ABOUT THE COVER—

Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends

CONTINUED




CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles _______ . _ _ _______________
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates _______ _____________________ _ _ _ _____ __
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
___________________
_ ____________ _ _ _ _ _

58
62
63

Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 _______________ __ ______ _ _ 65
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators _________________ __ ___ _ _ _____ _ _ - 66
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series _____________________ _ _ _ _ _________ . „ _ _ _ 67
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series_________________________________„________70
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961_________________________________ _ „ 71
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series ______ __ __ -_=, _____ _ __ 72

D [A3 Co] ©23

Series Finding Guide ______ ____________________________ ___ ________ 73

D A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.

Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. New seasonal adjustment factors for 18 series
have been computed by the new X-ll version of Census
Seasonal Adjustment Method II. These factors are shown
through June 1966 in appendix D. The table below shows
the beginning month for application of these factors for
each of the series. A comparison of the new and old
seasonal factors indicated that no revisions were necessary in the seasonal factors for the periods preceding
the dates shown below:
Series Beginning date
number for use of factor

k
5
9
10
13
H
15
18(Q)
30

December 1965
December 1965
November 1965
November 1965
November 1965
December 1965
December 1965
4-th Q 1965
March 1 6 .
94

Series Beginning date
number for use of factor
37
38
55
81
90
91
92
112
128

December 1965
March 1964
December 1965
November 1965
December 1964
November 1965
November 1965
December 1965
November 1965

2. Revised average changes and related measures,
computed by the X-ll variant of Census Method II, are
shown in appendix C (and in table 1 for Cl) for all.
series except series 13, 18, 30, 90, 91, 112, and 128.
Revised measures for these series will be shown in a
subsequent issue.
3. Moving-average curves (5-term) are now shown,
along with seasonally adjusted data in chart 1 for
series 86, 87, and 88.
. Appendix F includes historical data for series
2, 3, and 41.

The February issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on February 2 .
4




111




Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X--11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.

A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available, (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.

Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.

IV

mm
©HE)

Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.

tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
^

NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.

^

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.

^

NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are * for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac-




Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
^

Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional

U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
O

Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.

>

Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.

In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.

The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.

Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how


ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.

MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally

adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1

M.1ASW
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented— timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1

For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).




Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components

which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index, However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes,
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.




Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, ao" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.

In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.

Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7), For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly ail series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).



ITS

Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.

Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined acT
cording to the strategic points of the business cycle.\
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.

Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.

CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series

See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.'

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted,
("II" = second quarter)

Broken Mne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.

Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

30 «

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.

CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.

Scale shows percent of components rising.

Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
———

Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes, ("12" =
December)

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.

* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVa, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.



Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. " "
third quarter)

Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.

Section ONE

charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS




Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output

Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries

TABLE

^
^

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

bed

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS

Average percent change2

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Dec.
1965

Nov.
1965

Oct.
1965

Sept.
1965

1953 to Dec. '64 Dec. '64
to date
to date
1965
{without (without
(with
3
4
sign)
sign)
sign)5

Current percent change2
Sept.
to
Oct.
1965

Nov.
to
Dec.
1965

Oct.
to
Nov.
1965

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, ail industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts

Hours
Per 100 empl ..
Thous
Per 100 emp! . .
Thous

do.
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space ..
Bil. dol
... .do
Ann. rate,
thous
29. New bldg. permits, private housing .... 1957-59-100..
do
38. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Number
14. Liabilities of business failures
Mil. dol
15. Large business failures
No. per week . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes6.
Ann. rate,
bil dol
17, Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg
1957-59=100..
18, Profits per dol. of sales, mfg
Cents
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
6
corporate, all industries .
percent
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
1941-43=10...
21. Change in business inventories, all
Ann. rate,
67
industries '
bil. dol
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
7
and trade inventories
do
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven7
tories of materials and supplies
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer*
do . .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
slower deliveries*
25. Change in until led7orders, durable
goods industries
Bil. dol
23. Industrial materials prices*
1957-59=100 ..
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagri cultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males . .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State

Thous

do
Percent
do

... do .
46. Help- wanted advertising . . .
1957-59-100
47. Industrial production
do
6
50 GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
49. GNP in current dollars6
6
do
57. Final sales
do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
52. Personal income
do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do
54. Sal es of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59=100 ..



40.9
4. 5
r529
1.3
84

rU.2
r4.5

r547
rl.3

84

41.4
p5.0

r544
pi. 2
120

P41.4
(NA)

563
(NA)

0.5
4.8
1.8
9.2

125

17.1

0.2
5.6
2.1
7.1
20.5

0.0
+2.3
+0.6
+2.1
-4.1

+0.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

-42.9
-1.4

+2.8

+3.4

218

209

212

206

5.0

3.8

+1.5

+4.1

r22.42
r4.25

r22.41
r4.30

p22.50
p4.28

3.8
4.2

2.1
2.3

+0.7
+0.8

+1.2

60.49
r5.13

60.33
P 5.02

(NA)
(NA)

9.3
4.7

9.5
3.4
8.9
5.0
3.7
0.7
2.3

63.48
5.15

(NA)

1,436
104.1
rl05.3
17,138
108.56

rl,380
1 11
1.
rlOS.l
16,744
85.67

43

35

40

r!03.7

rlOS^S

r!05.3

10.4

0.0

+0.4
-0.5

+2.4

+1.2

+0.9
+0.2
+8.9

-4.7
-0.4

-0.3
-2.1
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

-3.9
+6.7
-0.2
-2.3

+10.2

+12.6

+1.8
+0.8
+4.0

18.7

27.0

+0.9
+0.9
-0.1
+0.2
+0.6

+21.1

+22.2

+2.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

48

12.3

15.4

-3.1

+18.6

-14.3

-20.0

+1.7

(NA)
-0.2
(NA)

+0.8

7.2
3.6
0.8
2.7

(NA)

5.6
0.6
6.8

5.8
0.6
6.3

+5.8
+0.3
+2.9

(NA)

91.39

-0.5
+7.7

rl,521 pi, 712
rl!3.1 pll6.4
(NA)
105.9
(NA)
17,418
(NA)
66.65

4.3

4.2

+3.7

2.5

1.7

+0.8

2.3

1.4

-0.1

(NA)

89.38

0.0
(NA)
+3.5
(NA)
-4.2

22.16
4.15

+0.5

+11.1

92.15

p!06.1

91.73

p+7.0

(NA)
+2.2

+0.8

-0.5

-0.6

+3.4

r+8.2

p+7.7

(NA)

3.6

4.2

-0.6

+4.8

-0.5

(NA)

+3.1

rfO.9

JM-0.3

(NA)

1.5

1.7

-0.2

-2.2

-0.6

(NA)

58

45

r50

48

6.5

6.0

-1.2

-22.4

+11.1

-4.0

61

63

63

63

5.3

1.8

-0.2

+3.3

0.0

62

60

66

72

7.5

5.8

+0.9

-3.2

+10.0

+9.1

+1.24
114. 8

iM-1.28
115.0

r+0.79
115.5

p+0.62
117.1

+0.04 -0.49

-0.17

60,756
67,777
4.4
2.2-

r6l,001
67,935
4.3
2.1

2.9

2.7

160
rl43.5

168
r!44.8

r6l,430 p6l,797
68,595 68,995
4.2
4.1
2.0
1.8
2.6

2.6

102.9

0.32

+0.01

1.3

1.0

+0.3

+0.2

+0.4

+1.4

0.3
0.4
3.9
5.6

0.4
0.4
3.3
5.6

+0.4
+0.3
+1.6
+2.8

+0.4
+0.2
+2.3
+4.5

+0.7
+1.0
+2.3
+4.8

40.6
+0.6
+2.4

+10.0

4.2

3.2

+2.6

+6.9

+3.7

0.0

3.0
1.0

3.3
0.7

+2.6
+0.6

+5.0
+0.9

+7.7
+1.0

+2.8
+1.4

1.2
1.5
1.3

1.5
2.0
2.1

+1.5
+2.0
+2.1

3,068.9 3,178.9 33,249.6
r541.3 • r 546.1 P550.5
rl43.6
r!45.6 P147.1
p23,959 p24,013 p24,303

1.6
0.5
0.8
0.9

1.8
0.7
0.7
1.1

+1.3
+0.6
+0.6
+0.5

+1.5
-0.8
+1.0
+0.8

-Kim.? nim i

n o

ni

j.n i

n n

r!8l

r!46.3

p!86

P148.3

p621.7
p694.6
P 687.5
3,022.6
r545.4
r!42.2
23,774

0.48

0.0

10?. 8

+1.4
+1.9
+2.0
+3.6
+0.9
+1.4
+0.2
_uH

)

+2.2
+0.8
+1.0
+1.2
n i

bed

TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Average percent change2

Sept.
1965

Oct.
1965

r99^4

r98!5

a54.85
r98.4

. . .do
Bil. dol

66.3

r66.6

do
Mil. dol

22.7

64, 2H

Unitof
measure

Nov.
1965

Dec.
1965

1953 to Dec. '64
to date
1965
(without (without
sign) *
signp

Current percent change2

Dec. ( 64
to date
(with
sign)5

Sept.
to
Oct.
1965

-0.9

+4.0
-0.1

Oct.
to
Nov.
1965

Nov.
to
Dec.
1965

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP6
64. Book value of rnfrs/ inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*9

Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59-100 ..

Percent

P98.1

3.2
0.6

3.5
0.5

+3.5
-0.1

p67.1

(NA)

0.8
0.5

0.7
0.6

+0.6

+0.5

,+0.8

(NA)

p22.8
65,460

(NA)
(NA)

0.6
0.8

0.5
1.1

+0.2
+1.1

+0.4
+0.9

+0.4
+1.0

(NA)
(NA)

5.27

2.0

1.7

+1.4

126.4
122.5

4.4
3.9
4.3

7.1
6,7

+0.4
+1.1
+0.7

-5.3
+7.1

-0.6
+2.5

+0.1

-30.1

(NA)

-0.1
+5.3
+3.2

-6.0
+4.1
-4.9

-1.3
+4.4

(NA)
(NA)

-21.0
+67

-10.4
+75

(NA)

22.6

64,803

5.00

0.0

-0.3

(NA)

+5.4

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83 Federal cash receipts from public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95. Balance, Federal income and product
account 6 ' 7
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
91 Defense Dept. obligations total
92 Mil itary contract awards in U S
99. New orders, defense products
93. Free reserves*7
85 Change in money supply

Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do

113
114
115
116
117

67

89! U.S. balance of payments ' :
a Liquidity balance basis 8
b. Official settlements basis
81 Consumer prices
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.9

rl46.1
r!28.7
r-17,4

rl,732

do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent

do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
6
do
Corporate gross savings 7
Ann. rate,
Change business loans
bil. dol.....
do
Change, consumer installment debt 7. . .
Percent
Treasury bill rate*
do
Treasury bond yields *
do
Corporate bond yields*
.
do
Municipal bond yields*

118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports

r!24.2
r!15.0
r-9.2

rl,733

rl,212

5,276
2,465

4,962
2,566
r3.28

4,896
2,679
r2.59

-149

r-82

+11.76

+9.48

+0.72

p+12.36

3.11

+12.24

+12.96

+7.80

p+12.36

do
Mil. dol

98. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits
110 Total private borrowing ^
Il
l
112

137.7
121.4
-16.3

do
Mil. dol
do
do

-3.9

(NA)

3.45
-155

2.5

+5.33
+7.07

+0.32
+7.88

3.91
4.25
4.71
3.35

4.03
4.28
4.69
3.40

26.9

25.6

(NA)
(NA)

15.1
24.5
22.5

15.4
13.3

P 2.32

5.46

5.49

2,348.6
r2, 002.0
r+346.6

do
do

1957-59=100 . . 110.1
do
147
59.38
Bit. dol
plS.18
do.

110.3
147
60.66

p+10.84
(NA)
4.36
4.43
4.90
3.54
5.62
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

5.51

110.6
141
r6l.46

-13.5

-8.2

+13.5

-4.8

(NA)

-15

+6

7.99

+0.65

-2.28

-8.76 +11.64

2.52

3.71

+0.29

+0.72

-5.16

10.1

+1.4
+4.1

98

4.3

2,405.9
1,903.3
+502.6
(NA)
(NA)

8.3

+17.6
+11.9

11.5

p-7

4.08
4.34
4.75
3.46

2,297.7
1,786.8
+510.9

3.9

(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

+4.00
+8.30

12,1

-9.8

1.22
0.87

6.7
1.6
1.4
2.5
0.1
4.6
3.6
58.4

341

/

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

p62.08
(NA)

0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6

47

4.6

+4.56

(NA)
(NA)

-5.01 +10.52
(NA)
+0.81

+0.18
+0.10

+1.33
-1.13

1.7
0.6
1.0
1.7

+1.0
+0.6
+0.8
+1.0

+3.1
+0.7
-0.4
+1.5

+1.2
+1.4
+1.3
+1.8

+6.9
+2.1
+3.2
+2.3

0.3
17.2
10.4

+0.3
+3.8
+2.4

+0.5
+2.2

+0.4
+2.4
-4.9

265.6

-26.0

+2.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

3.39
0.82

778
348

+294
+348

0.2
4.9
1.2
6,7

+0.1
-0.6
+1.2
+6.7

+12.0
-164.3 +156.0
(NA)
(NA)
+0.2

0.0
+2.2

+0.3
-4.1
+1.3

(NA)
(NA)
+1.0
(NA)

r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2, 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications.
^This average is based on month-tomonth (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The-period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
8
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, father than in percent.
This
9
balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.




BASIC DATA

JANUARY

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators




| -.-.-

..--._-..

i^^^

-_._.

,-_

_ _ _ _ - _ 1 r _ _ _ _ _ _

1966

bed

bed

JANUARY




J966

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

r. contracts, com. and i
area. MCtT moving avg

capital appropriations,

bldg. permits,private lousing units

uliL'uJjuluuu

:ilmtlijiliilijJi)yoluM .

^julwklulJT

CHART

DATA

JANUARY

1966

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued




arge bus. failures
nverted .scale. IV

See "Hw to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6

bed

JANUARY 1966




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

ij.a.i!;j IMMJJJJJWJI^^

CHART

CHART

BASIC DATA

JANUARY

1966

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

i.) (let)




ange in bus. inventories

20. Change in book value, mfr
materials and sup lies (afin. rate, bil. dol

r per centreporting liia^er inventories

26. Buying policy, prcx

percent reporting comm tments 60 days

reporting slower deliveries

s .prices 1 [index:! 1957-59

rTNiii

y ijiiit I a • . . J..J I Ji 11 mill y! 11II i»11111 i LII i H f f i - s I iJ i ilnlifliiliJLiiji^.i.ii

140
120 2
100 -S

bed

JANUARY 1966




CHART

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

l 65 -

rirwe e kly frTstrrech tm eTTTp=foyTTii
(percfent-inverted sea e)

JuiJjuljuLuli .

JiJjuJkjJ^^

"ill • :iffii HM?-

Ss2 "to 1 fel ifeJts 1 ml i:

Jjp

15

BASIC DATA

JANUARY

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

47. hdustrial producion (index: 1957-59=100)

jlllllW
llllli




1966

bed

bed

JANUARY

1966

BASIC DATA

CHART

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Uiili™



it*- ih^

B

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators




(index: -1-95J-59=100)

3ook va ue of mfrs.' inventories/finished goods (bil. doll)

bed

bed

CHART
JANUARY




1966

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

te "the «8 fell Ofearts 1 aii I" $.

BASIC DATA

JANUARY

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued




noney supply m
percent. MCD m

.1;!' t j {,i|luIijL^^

i;i

7966

bed

bed

JANUARY




1966

BASIC DATA

CHART

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

h 5

1

CHART

BAS|c

DATA

JANUARY

1966

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued




F=F

r;

T

T~86. Exports, e^c._ milit!ai7^aj(b[l. dpi.
MCJ) moving avg.-$ term) |

JH

87. General impo t
5

term moving ayg.)

U.S. bfalance of payments, Q~~fbil. dolf^

_TZZ

onsumer priceslifindex:

0
<..»!>

^
94. Construction contfacts, v^jue^ (index:_]957
p MCD moving pvg.-5 t|rm)

ackfog of cap. dppropri

bed

JANUARY

CHART

1966

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International

(fc)




United" States (index: !957-59f100)

_J22_UniJecJCingdom

JlllJUauljU^^

Comparisons

TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY

1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators

Year and month

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

(Hours)

3. Layoff rate,
30. Nonagricultural placements, manufacturing
1
all industries

(Thous.)

(Per 100
employees)

4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries

5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs 2

6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries

24- Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Bil.doi.)

(Bil. do!.)

1962
July

40.5

August
September
October
November
December

40.3

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

r4Q 6
40.?

40. ,4
r40 2

40.4,
4-0.3
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40,6
40,7

40 .5
40 ,,6

40 1
40 6
40.6
40.8

40
40
40
40
40
40
40
41

6
7
7
8
6
7
9
2

4] 2
41 .2
4J 3
41 0
41 1
41 0
41 0
41 0
40 9
r4"l 2
Li L
[H! n/1 /

303
305
300
304
299
310

16.91
16.59
16.55

2 0
1.9

128
127
127
125
133
120

552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525

19
1.8
19
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.7

152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97

310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301

18 47
18 23
18 78
19 04
18 74
17.68
18 28
18 06
18 24
18 62
18 11
17 97

T"?/

i
1
1
1

~n A
i PS

QC>/

iQ n i

•3 AD

070

1 Q en

•2/1

277
o^

19 26
on / £

3 /6
^ AT

0^9

1 Q Q/
17. 74
Of) no

•3 n a
P. 7 J

4.2
4 0
*"4 0
3 9
3.8
3.8

557
553
551
557
565
543

3 8
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.7
4.0

3
4
4
3
3
4
4
L

8
0
0
9
8
1
0
0

2.1
r2.4

1.9
r2.0

SIP
r523
• FT"??

£
8
8
6

Q8
1 99

17.29
16 73
17.33

T^PQ

1 7

16

1 ?1

oc^

1 Q

118

260

OT

"3 Q

r5l8
523
r507
r5lS

/ 0
/ -i

•Hi!/
T.t;q'3

/ 0

-r^py

4 0
4 0
4 3
1Q
4 1
L 5
4 1

1-^99

1 0

4 5
r4 5

LTD p5 0
(NA)

1

^

q-i

o//

1 Q ^/

1

^

1 OT

i n 7l
en
17*

16
i s
16

QO
so

oy ^
oyq
9A9
oc;i

1 Q 4?
17. / £1
on oo

^4^
o; s
909

9/ -a

Ol

OHf

91

1 ^

91

71

1 -I r-t

QQf7
*£ J /

99 ny
9H QD
^u.yy

T^9ft

1
1
1
1

-r^OC
rpj;?

1 . >>
1 £\

•p^/Q

y
.4
/
y

1 OQ

iInJ 7Q
nn /y
1 9/
1 1 pi

-pC ao

I

t

-i p|O

QO 1

-pcy rt

1

1

i yn

OQ /
^*£4

1 on
11 n

O "31
Ol
o/ o

c; / -i

941
—C - 1
1 7

rci9Q
-pcy 17

— try /
CiQ

POj)

QC

• 4
1 A
1 17
1 ./
1 q

1 .2
r-1 ."3
ri 3
"771 Til 9
^H]pl.2
fwrf.\
(NA)

&i
04

91 cf

cj;
04

ono

i on
1 QC

!<;:>

on o
212
fu° OPi^,

Lb_'-cUo

1 Q Ao

91 . ^1
*£l "31
99 2U
<2. OH
91
^1
(Cl.pl
99
T A
^2. ID

r>d2 . 42
r22.41
[H]p22.50
T»OO

/ O

3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05

3 16
3.07

3
3
3
3

?5
?1
2P
35

3.4?
3.29

3
3
3
3
3
3

33
31
4?
44
27
61

Q

Q9

•3

««

q f /
J. 79
o AC5
J.uV
q 7Q
Q d$j
q no

n
J. nA
70
1 &H
no

4

/ nti

4.07

4. 09
04.35
4.16
4.15

r4.25
r4 . 30
P4.28

1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by (3; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by ED. Series numbers arefor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

0* May 1962.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

2




bed

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings

(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
1962

10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

(Bil.dol.)

July

40.56

August
September
October
November
December. .
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June

42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41. 89

3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99

44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
•44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45.43

3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56

51.07
51 05
48 41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88

4.38
4 14
4 11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4-51
4.56
4.92
4.94

July

August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October ..........
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

53
58
54
©64
56

20
12
04
26
13

S5 PS

55 90
Aq 60
6? / s
60 / Q

An QT
( MA *)

4
4
/
/

72
67
ft/
qa

5 0?
/ $.1

[Ej5 16
4 90
5 15
r5 13
p5 02
(NA)

11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations 1

(Bil.dol.)
2.81
3.35

2.80
3.30

29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits

38. Index of net
business formation

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

14. Current
liabilities of
business failures

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59=100)

(Number)

(Mil. dol.)

1,409
1,531
1,300
1,410
1,634
1,521

108 7
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0

97 7
98.4
98.5
98.5
98.0
98.3

15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985

107 98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61

1 285
1,438
1 486
1 652
1 676

111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7

98.9
100.2
100.5
99.2
99.6
100.0
100.7
101.7
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8

14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867

146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
03 52 . 86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17

116 8
[HJ124 6
121 7
113.6
112.9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110.8
105.4

103 1
102 8
102 9
r!03.7
r!05.3
r!03.9
rl04.0
r!03.6
rl04.8
r!06.6
rl05.8
rl06.8

16,250
16 018

91.69
119 29
110 67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

1

3.72

£>*>()

1 574
1

5? 2

1 676
1 706

4.10

i sq?
1

•(771 "I

4 39

S99

7CQ

LMJ -L , OJ
1 7OA
1, c 171
0 /I

1 ^06
4.81

1 /qA
-\

5.00
4.52

/ qQ

...
Cj

7Q
...

rm "n*i $O

C.QI.

1

LH^

1
1
1
1
1

/ftQ
A?2
/Q<5
480
S7^

1
1
1
1

417
A68
> AC;
S^?

i ^m
I

con

1 /, /, 7
1 /OQ
-i / -qA

rl 380
(NA^

rl

c;p-]

nl , 71 9
P-L
/'J.^

11 9 q

i n& n
i 1*9 o
in/ n
-1 OQ

1UV . /4
i "i n A

-r 1 07 ^
[H]crl07 6
rl06 1
-pi ne, Q
r!05 0
r!06 8

1 OQ 7

r!06 4

i n*7 /

r!06 4
T~l O^ T

in/ I
1U4. 1
mi
r>l 1 ^
•nl 1 A

1
/

i*105 1
1 n^ q
/laA \

15 9Q?

16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154

i 7 07^
i 7 QA7
17 119
-) A ^O/

1 A O/ ?
1 A A'?!

1 A ^AQ
1 A q^7
1 7 1 "38

"1 fi 7 / /

rrrn 7 / 1 o
(NA)

ft/,
107
146
7q
1 1Q
1 "^
120
128
108
85
66

S/,
57
29
^1
oq
6A
64
98
56
67
65

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by [H) for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The Hr" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"-r not available.
-'-Data prior to 1 6 not comparable because of rra change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a re9 1
calculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1 6 .
95)




TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY

1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

15. Number of
16. Corporate
business failures
profits after taxes
with liabilities of
$100,000 and over I

(Number per
week)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing

18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations

22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries

(1957-59-100)

(Cents)

(Percent)

19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries

(1941-43=10)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1962
July

August
September
October
November
December

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June .
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November . . J
December

38
45
40

31.5

46
42
37

31 8

49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38

8.1

11.2

8.1

11.1

8.1

10.8

8.5

11.2

8.6

11.2

8 8

11 3

9 0

11 9

8 9

11 7

9 0

11 7

8 7

11 7

99 7
31.2
32.6
32.8
33.8

41
41
38
44
39
39
44

36 7
37 0

40
42

37 5

42
42
40

37 g

35
40
42

r43 6

33
/7

47
39
Z5
4-3
35
40
48

100.2
100.0
100.7
100.2
100.4
99 9

T*/

/

1

fhl rl, / %

(NA 1 )

100.1
100 5
100 8
101.3
102.2
101 7
100.9
101 0
101.5
100 8
100.8

101.6
101 9
101.3
101 9
101.7
100 8
101 2
101 6 •
100 8
100 6
101 8
102 6

r!03
r!02
r!03
r!03

0
8
5
3

rl03 6
rl04 1
r!05 0
r!04 6
r!03 7

T*I n^ ^
ri n*; ^
i"u"l"nT HA 1

56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64

4-5.2

+6.4

65.06
65.92
65 67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72 62
74 17

76
77
78
79
80
80
83
82
83
84
8*5
83

45
39
80
Q/
72
24
22
00
41
85
//
96

•t-4.5
+4.7

+5.8

+8.1

+3 3

+4 1

+3 8
...
4,7 c

ft£ 1 O
ft

r!3 0

&A 71!

rHI F+ 8 8

86 83

iTTlQ

...

07 07

0

0

Q

A/

fjy

„-]

Fjrt

Qq

9

rtQ

en

By . 2o

Q /

run q n

...

...

54.71
&A y Q
OD ,4V
cjQ qrt
07. Jo

fNA^
^WAy

fWA^
U\IAJ

[392.15

"3Q
yi. jy

TVL

A

/

...
•pi 7

A

• • •

OT

T%j_f7 n

91.73

1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

93.51

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by (HI for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 ( 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by GO. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a"r anticipated; and U NA", not available.
1

El = February 1 6 .
92
Average for January-19, 20, and 21.

2


26


bed

JANUARY

BASIC DATA

1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

1962

31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total

20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies 1

37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories

26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*

32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*

25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

23- Index of industrial materials
prices*

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August
September
October
November
December

+3.9
+2.0
+ 5.6
+ 5.5
+1.2
+5.1

-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7

44

58
52
52
55
52
51

44

45
43
46
50
49

44
48
48
48
48

-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91

94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8

+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2

+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7

47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43

50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55

50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46

+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40

95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7

+ 5.1
+2 3
+3 7
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4

-1.9
-0 5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7

42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58

53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65

55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65

+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55

98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5

60
61
57

65
65
068
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63

+0.32
+0 81
+0 44
+0 84
+0.50
+0.58
+0.38
+0.32
+1.24
[H] r+1 . 28
r+0 . 79
p+0 . 62

110.6
110.7
113.2
116.7
116.9
115.3
114.6
115.2
114.8
115.0
115.5
(HI 117.1

1964
January
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August

September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

LtD+14.6

+11.2

+5.0
+13.8
+8.7
+9.4
+6.1
+11.6
+8.1
+3.4
r+8.2
p+7.7
(NA)

1.6

+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
+1.0
+0 4
+2 5
+5 ?
+1 5
-0 5
+0 7
+1 4
+3 1
r+0 9
p+0 3

(NA)

fH]6l
60
58
57
60
58
45
r50
48

[HJ74

' 72
70
66

68
72
66
72
70
66
62
64
62
60
66
72

3

120.3

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5r 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by {H). Series numbers arefor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
IH1 = December 1961.
2
Average for January 17, 18, and 19.



TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY

1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and month

41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments

(Thous.)

42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey

(Thous.)

40. Unemployment
rate, married
males

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
unemployment rate, in newspapers
1
State programs

(1957-59=100)

47- Index of industrial production

(1957-59=100)

1962
July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

62,623

r55,637
r 5 5, 703
r 55, 796
r 5 5, 830
r 5 5,879
r55,B80

63,015
63,147
63,070
62,921
63,336

5 5
5.7
5 6
5.4
5 8
5 5

3
*3
3
3
3
3

6
7
5
5
5
5

55,397
56,027
56,1-42
56,353
56,488
56,562
56,670
56,727
56,856
57,008
57,038
57,205

63 133
63,230
63 487
63,708
63,613
63,825
64,055
64,089
64,253
64,205
64,371
64,449

5 7
5 9
5 7
5 7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5 8
5.5

3 7
11
3 4
3 4
3 2
3 2
3 1
3 0
3i
3 3
3 3

57,252
57,606
57,694
57,781
57,864
58,033
58,190
58,301
58,499
58,370
58,879
59,163

64,685
65,051
65,175
65,695
65,790
65,519
65,632
65,641
65,650
65,658
66,084
66,463

5 5
5.4
5 4
5 4
5 2
5.3
5 0
5 1
5.1
5 2
4.9
5 0

59,295
59,581
59,814
59 , 846
60,032
60 , 290
60,501
60 621
60,756
r6l,001
r6l 430
0±lp6l 797

66 771
66,709
66 , 890
66 874
66 , 979
67 , 459
68,092
67 , 821
67,777
67,935
68 595
068 995

/ 8

5 0
4 7

3 7

3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

1
0
9
8
6
8
7
6
8

? Q

2 4
2 6

4
4
4
4

2
4
4
5

4 A

4 7
4 g
4 6
/ /
L ?

4
4
4
4
4
4
L
4

2
1
1
1
0
0
l
3

/
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

3
0
8
A
5
6
6
5
/
y
/

no
108
107
107
107
e!07

e!07
e!09
e!08
10Q
105
104
10Q
105
107
11
1
112
118
116
117
118
1 opt

118
121
l ?/
1 P3

126
1 91
1 3/

3 A

"1 17

p 7

q i

2 6
2 5
2.e
5

3 1
3 1
-1
3 .1

1 77
lp /
1 ic

] 19 0
119 0
110 7
"11Q 1
119 8
119 /
11 Q ft

120 6
i pi Q
122 7
1 ?/ /
125 6
125 6
125 4
195 7

126 I
i pA i
127 0
1 p7 Q

i pd; y
1 on q
147. J
1 qn e>

-i -an

&

1 IP 0

T 33

3

i 3/ n
134 0
131 6
135 /
138 1

1965
January
February
March
April
May.

June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

/ Q

2

e

L 7

2

/

4 5
/ ^

P

"3

Q

A

4 6

L L

p p

L 3
/ p

2

fT7\i

-1

1

p n
rsii ft

2

Q

2
3 n
Q

u
3 . PL
p q

2 7
p A
nn ^. A
[Hj P 0

1 /&
-I i Q

14J
145
i /&
J.4o
1 jc

147

152
i An
loO
1 /• rt
168
rlSl
[Sjpl86

'1 IS A
Ijo.o
1 *3Q O
IJV.^
•) / A 17
i / ri o
140 . v

141 . 6
142.7
-i / j ^
144.2

144.5
rl43 . 5
r!44 . 8
rl46.3
0pl48.3

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by (H] for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; Me", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.




bed

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 7966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year and month

50. Gross
national product
in 1958 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1962

57. Final sales 51. Bank debits,
(series 49 minus all SMSA's exseries 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

July

August
September
October
November
December

533.6

564.4

559.2

538.5

572.0

565.6

54.1.2

577 0

572 5

544-. 9

583.1

578.4

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

52. Personal
income

53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods

(1957-59=100)

2,311 3
2,268.8
2,236 7
2,340.7
2,351.5
2,324.9

443 4
444.6
447.0
447.9
450.4
452.6

118 8
118.7
119 5
118.9
119.7
119 7

19 658
19 , 671
19 844
19,837
20,112
20 253

100 9
100 8
100 9
100 9
100.8
100 7

2,416.2
2 345 9
2,357.2
2 472 5
2 , 419 . 2
2 368 2
2,561.0
2 463 1
2,559.0
2 605 5
2 527 4
2,610.2

456 6
454 9
456.7
457 2

120 1
120 0
120 8
120 7
122 0
123 0
123 3
123 4
124 4
125 1
125 7
127.1

20,387
20 374
20 350
20 276
20 200
20 486
20,719
20 666
20 , 426
20 716
20 558
21,019

100 5
100 5
100 5
100 4
100 5
100 8
100 9
100 9
100 8
100 9
100 9
101.1

1 ?A

1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July

August
September
October
November
December
1964
January

553.7

593 1

587 3

560.0

603.6

595 5

S&7 1

614 o

£.T n n

2 571 5

March
Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December.

? WO 1
9 ^Wl 1

575.9

624.2

620.1

582.6

634.8

631 0

584.7

641.1

633.6

1-597,7

r657.6

r648.8

r603 5

r668 8

r662 4

r6l3 0

r68l 5

r673 9

(H]p621 7

rrnp694 6

Qn]p687' 5

2,693.8
2,688.4
2 , 607 . 4
2 746 7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2 , 803 . 5

460 o
463
464
467
469

1
8
1
3

/7? 2

474 7
478.9

• 481 2
/ a -3 p
/ ft/ t;
487 7
491.2
492 8
496 1
499.5
501.7
502.8
506.6
512.0

21 000

101 1

1 OH Q

pi

c-a-i

1 01 9

1 9& T

91

99?

129 5
130 3
130 9
1 31 5
132 6
133.8
132 6
135.1
137.3

21,392
21,777
21,773
21 935
22,266
22,254
21 383
21 , 661
22,781

im9
101 2
101.1
101 0
101 2
101 2
101.3
101 5
101.6
101 7

r!37 3
r!38 4
r!39 7
r!38 8
r!39 6
r!40 4
r!41 4
r!42 1
rl42 2
r!43 6
1*145 6
"H]pl4,7.1

22,900 •
23,317
22,805
22,865
23 352
23,331
23 , 743
23,544
23 774
p23,959
p24 013
[H]p24,303

*>

1965

January

February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871 5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018 8
3,022 6
3,068 9
3,178 9
(H]p3,249.6

r515.4
r515.2
r517.8
r520.5
r525 0
r528.5
r530.4
r532.1
r545.4
r541.3
r546.1
0P550.5

101.7
101.9
102.1
102.2
102.3
102.6
102.6
102.8
102.9
102.8
[H]rl03..2
p!03.1
1

103.2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are' indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by ED for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by GD. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; ''p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Week ended January 18.



TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
64. Book value of
68- Index of labor
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories

62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing

(Ann. rate,
bit. doL)

Year and month

61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59^100)

(Bil. dol.)

65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods

66. Consumer installment debt

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*

(Percent)

1962

July

August
September
October
November
December

38.35

37,95

56.9

100.7
100.9
100.4
100 6
100.3
100 7

'103 . 3
103.3

57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8

19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8

45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174

57 9
58 0
58.1
58 3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58 9
59 1
59 3
59 8
60 1

19 9
20 0
20 0
20 0
20,1
20 3
20.3
20 4
20 6
20 6
21 0
21 2

47 659
48,154
48,631
49 152
49,593
50 , 079
50,588
51 069
51 410
51 941

60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
61
6l
62
62

21 2
21 /
7\ L

S3 ?1 ?

21
21
21
21
21
21
PI

54 727
SS ??0

4.99
5.0?

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

36 95

38.05

40.00
41.20

42.55

43.50

45.65

47.75

49 00
50 35

100 6
100 2
99 7
99 5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99 7
99.8
100.0
100.0

104 0

104.2
103.9
104.7

99 3
99 i
99 7
99 3
99 3
100 0
99 7
99 5
100 3
(HI 101 2
99 5
98 9
r*Q& 2
ryo. ^
T>Q& Q
ryo.y
•fQ3 5
rVo. £
r*QQ .1
ryy "1
Y>QQ •n
rv? u

t-Oft 8

104 2
104 6
105 1
fB">io6 3

~QO

rj

r99.4

ryo, ?
T*Q &

/

T

yAA

ryo.4
pVo.I

( ]\Tfl ^
UMA;

A

fTTi r>A7 1

/ M A\

^NA;

S3 7Q1
S7 31 S

SS 'JQO
«;A n73
S6 SOS
S7 0?1

5 00

y

qq

/ QQ
...

/

Qft

e nn

ed QAO
PO,7O^
CQ ^.nQ
?7 * DU J
An P y n

oo
<c<£. e
;>

A^ R
AA T

52 784

S7 73?
cd pop

pp y
<£,£. 4

r!06 2
•**

52 3?/

?1 Q
pp p

00

Ay n
Ay ^
A/ A
A^ y
Dp, 4

5 01

...

63 4

r!06 1
...

5 01

^7 y 31

A? .7
DJ
/

.

^

« Q t>
,
QfJ

a54 85

6
6
S
6
6
6
ft

A3 9

r!05 1

T>Q ci n

HD52 75

0
1
3
5
5
4
5
8
0
8
4
9

5.00

I

OO Q
<<C. ^

op /
££. 4
pp

O

<:*£. J
pn e
-C4;. 5
oo ^

oo A
<2.O
oo

•?

[mp^.5
i— i v^OO

&

\NA;
/"liT A \

An QS /
OU,y54
An ,054
ol A ^ y
Ao O^A
O>d, (ipo
Ao QOO
A3 ST1
Ay OT y

04,^14
A y &n'5
o4,oUJ
firiA^ yAn

/WA \
(KA)

***

4. y /
y Q7

y QO
4.yy

5.00
05.27

a56 70
a58 85

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by ® for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4 , 5 , 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
byE). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a"r anticipated; and "NA", not available.




bed

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

Year and month

1962

82, Federal cash
payments to the
public

(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)

July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
Jung
July

August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August
September .
October
November
December
1966
January

83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

84. Federal cash ..
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

113 5
108 1
113 4
113 7
118 6
114 9

110.4
107.7
108.4
107.1
110.1
108 4

-3.1
-0.4
-5 0
-6.6
-8.5
-6 5

112.4
109.6
116.6
113.5
116.3
115.3
120.5
121.9
119.9
122.0
119.3
117.2

108.6
109.9
110,5
108.0
114.0
112.7
112.9
116.5
112.6
114.7
114.9
118.1

-3 8
+0,3
-6.1
-5 5
-2.3
-2 6
-7.6
-5 4
-7.3
-7.3
-4-4
+0,9

125.9
119 2
120 4
122.6
119.1
116.7
122.8
121.6
117.9
118.4
112.9
126.5

115.9
120.5
117.1
121.4
108.7
113.8
114.0
111.7
113.0
115.1
114.9
114.5

-10.0
+1.3
-3 3
-1.2
-10.4
-2.9
-8.8
-9.9
-4.9
-3.3
+2.0
-12.0

121.8
121.8
117.4
125.2
128.8
133.0
120.2
129.5
137.7
r!24.2
r!46.1
126.4

114.0
120.1
124.5
153 5
119.9
119.4
122 1
121 9
121 4
rl!5 0
r!28 7
122 5

-7.8
-1.7
+7.1
+28.3
-8.9
-13.6
+1.9
7 6
16 3
r-9.2
r-17 4
-3 9

95. Surplus (+) or 90. Defense
92. Military prime
9L Defense
deficit (-), Federal Department obliga- Department obliga- contract awards to
U.S. business firms
income and product tions, procurement tions, total
account

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)
1,657

(Mil. dol.)

-2.6

1,395
1,040
1,675

-3.2

1,787
1,205

4 517
4,385
3 892
4,535
4,920
4,140

1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273

4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371

1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494

1,089
rl,747

4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325

rl,005
r700
rl,355
rl , 444
rl , 402
rl,254
rl,128
rl , 741
rl,732
rl,733
1,212

4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
4,520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896

-2.5
+1.8
+0.6
+1,2

-2.6
-7.6
-3.6

803

1,141
889

-1.1

r+3.6
r+3.8
r-2.9
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(Mil. dol.)
2 017
2,149
2 111

2,983
2,734
1,984
2,198

2,435
2,154
1,966 '

2,240
2,334
2,419

2 ? 733
2,578
2,086
1,681

2,079
2,149

2,689
1,598

2,508
2,454
1,879

2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745

2,008
1,883
1,830
1,628
1,874

2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
(NA)

March
April
May
, *
June
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by-an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; andl4 NA' f , not available.




TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products

93. Free reserves*

(BiLdoL)

(Mil. dol.)

Year and month

85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply

98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

110. Total private
borrowing

111. Corporate
gross savings

112. Change in
business loans

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1962

July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268

-0.84
0 84
-1 68
+4.92
+4 08
+4 92

] .48

+375
+301
+269
+ 31 3
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209

+4
+4
+1
+4
+3
+3
+6
+2
+2
+S
+7
0

08
92
56
08
24
96
36
40
40
^2
08
84

2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87

+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168

+3
+1
+2
+3
0
+7
+8
+3
+8
+4
+2
+4

96
56
40
12
00
80
52
84
40
56
28
56

o
?
2
3
2

4-i n 7

o-O O&

2 ,.07
1 94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53

2 89
2 09
2 42
1 97
2.40

1 90
2.40
2.36

2 47
] .92
1.97

-37
//
46
91
46

o £,&

2 62
2 81
1 / c

r3 28
r>9 5Q
n? 3?

i QO

+ .?<

n>A

~\ 1 O
1 rjO

-17o

r

-i rt c
-i rjc

-1 75
1 "3A

-lj?D
-1 C C

--Li) 5
I/O
-149

c}o
r-82

p-7

o

oS

, / pb
+ 4. c/;
, A p|f\
1&
8 .16
+13.44
i C
+5 .I £.
lo
i -[
y ;
+1.44

, -J -1

ryX

+y.4o

i O / !>

+0. 72
p+12,36

+5 04
+4 08
+4 56
+9,48
+8 40
+10 80
+8 76
+8 76
+7 20
4-7

24
08
00
88
y ft

4-ft

41 732

/ ^ 7^6

43 236

43 104

42 668

51 508

/ 3 820

51 040

/*5 ^20

Aft

+6
+7
+9
+8
4-A

45 340

7A

4-i i ny
i /

+8 76
4-Q

1?

+Q

/0

+8 52
4-ft n/
+8 88

+10 . 44
+7.92
/ p./
+6.96
+9.00
0.00

+12.60
+9.72
+10 . 80
+12.24
+12.96
+7 . 80
jH-12.36

+1
+1
+1
4,0
+?
+1

/3
42
85
/n
IS
74

+1 Q7
...

*n ft9?

I C

+2 04
+? 08
+4 66

TO/

4>*i

99

+5 78

Cfl

+8 16
+ 5 88
U 4A
+5 76
+4 92
+Q 7P

+2.66
+3 85
+2.82
+2.82
+2 28
+0 95

4-1 7Q
/ 7 PI 9

/ f t 6^6

+ 3 /ft

+1 42
4=3 1 7

64 640

/Q 30ft

• * •

...

qo AAy

en -i QA

+/

?5

+ 3 ftQ
4>/

31

4/

7ft

cc* 4oU
5 o ,/An

. . .

} Q y J.
47 j 4 i<£D

U

ost

4-1

.. .

/ 3

if)

QO

4-ft Ao

^,/q QO^,
ro j , J fb

r55,100

+12.35
+13.14

+12.46
ro8,972

r54,732

r60 ,020

r55j5BQ

/ ,., ,. \

(MA)

(WA)

+6.32
+11 . 04
+.11.38
+-10.00
+5.53
+4.00
•45.33
n(0.32

p+10,84

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; andI(NA", not available.




bed

JANUARY

BASIC DATA

1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Year and month

1962

113. Net change in
consumer installment debt

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

July

114. Treasury bill
rate*

(Percent)
2 QZ

115. Treasury bond
yields*

2.84
2 79
2.75
2 80
2.86

4
3
3
3
3
3

02
98
94
89
87
87

August
September
October
November
December

+5.82
+5.94
+ 5.72
+6.25
+5,29
+ 5,83
+6.11
+ 5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52

2 91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3 00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3 52
3.52

3 89
3 92
3 93
3 97
3 97
4 00
4 01
3.99
4 04
4.07
4 11
4 14

1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

+5 14
+6 95
+6 29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+ 5.80
+5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72

3 53
3 53
3 55

+8.04
+7 . 69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
+7.22
+7.99
+7.31
+8.20
+7.07
+7.88
(NA)

86. Exports excluding.militaryaid
shipments, total

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

+4 49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82

August
September
October
November
December

116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*

(Mil. do!.)

/ /i

3 2#

C

CO

4
4
4
L
4

3 23

5
5
5
5
5

51
^6
55
5/
51

39
28
27
23
28

311

3 02
3 O/
3 07

i /4o. ^
1, n i ft "3
1 70? 5
1 QH7 Q

1 5/ 2 R
1 7?y A

1 838 7

1963

January
February
March
April
May
June
July

1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

4
4
4
4
L
A

34
33
40
36
/? •
AQ

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

L "1 5

/

/Q

3 22

L I/

y ift

3 1/

4 18
4.20
4 16
4 13
4 13
4 14
4.16
4 16
4.12
4 14

/

3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36

4.14
4.16
4.15
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4.34
4.43

4.44
4 44
4 49
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.57
4.66
4.71
4 69
4 75
4.90

/ 22

4
4
4
4

25
26
35
35

/ 32

/5

4.49

48
49
43
43
49
49
47
47

10
15
05
10
11
21
22
13
20
20
30
27

Q

OS

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

28
20
20
IB
1Q
23
25
18
13

3 06
3 09
3 18
3 15
3 17
3 24
3.27
3 24
3 35
3 40
3 46
3 54

qec: 7

5 59

5 48
5 11
5 46
5/5
5/5

5
5
5
5

L5
1,5
/5
L5

5/5
5/5

5/5
5/5
C
3 . 42
5 45
IK.

5

/,5

5/5
5 46

5 46
5 46
5 /,5
5 L5
5 L5

5
5
5
5

45
45
45
45

5 L5

5
5
5
5

44
44
45
46

5 /Q

s si
5 62

2
1
1
1
1

123
Q^7
Ql 3
SQ^i
SO?

6
#
7
2
1

1 840 8
1
1
1
1
?

Q22
Q^S
Q67
QA^
OQO

1
?
^
A
8

2 n/ o Q
2 ny A o
2
p|F-7 /

2
2
p
2

p
|

06l 1
06l 8
o3/ 2
1 22 Q

2 108 8
2 23S 3
2 1 5/ 8

2 196 8
2 / 30 /

1 217 3
1 SQ2 7
2 7S2 7
2 380 3

2
2
2
2

277
1 £/
262
3/S

7
8
8
7

2 2Q7 7
2 3/8 A
2 /TK Q
f N&}

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk {*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The Hr" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General imports, total
Year and month

(Mil. dol.)

88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)

{Mil. dol.)

89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments
a. Liquidity
balance basis

(Mil. dol.)

b. Official
settlements
basis1

(Mil. dol.)

81. Index of con- 94. Index of con- 96. Manufacturers' unfilled
struction consumer prices
orders, durable
tracts, value
goods industries

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59100)

(Bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations,a manufacturing

(Bil. dol.)

1962
July
August
September
October
November
December

1,34.6.6
1,345.9
1/471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5

+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2

1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.8
1,414.6
1,416.3
1,430.9
1,449.5
1,497.3
1,443.3
1,455.4
1,465.5
1,479.8

-114.2
+613.2
+473.0
+499.1
+478.9
+372.2
+391.3
+424.8
+5H.9
+512.1
+500.1
+611.0

1,434.4
1,460.3
1,519.5
1,540.6
1,539.4
1,518.4
1,578.1
1,574.9
1,546.4
1,547.7
1,697.7
1,642.2

+608.5
+585.9
+554.5
+520.5
+522.4
+515.8
+544.8
+533.9
+688.9
+607.1
+499.1
+788.2

1,206.4
1,600.5
1,869,0
1,834.7
1,79;3.9
1,854.8
rl,669.9
1,725.4
1,786.8
r2, 002.0
1,903.3
(NA)

+10.9
-7.8
+883.7
+545.6
+478.8
+350.0
r+592.9
+620.3
+510.9
r+346.6
+502.6
(NA)

(NA)

-433
-711

(NA)

-1,199

(NA)

-1,108

(NA)

105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9

117
118
113
117
123
138

44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09

106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7

121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148

45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68

107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9

147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154

47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96

109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
(NA)

137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
(NA)

54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
r6l.46
p62.08

8^26

a! si

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

-210

-153

•

(NA)

(NA)

8.8S

9^38
lo!(D5
11.02

1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

-257
-582
-593
-1,366

-136
-351
+46

-783

12.08
13.23
14.54
14.97

1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

r-709
r+242

r-642
r+205

p-485

p+260

(NA)

(NA)

15^66
I?!o6

pisiis
(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised- "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
TMs balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
2
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of Ira ch,ange in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
~~




bed

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons

Year and month

1962

47. United
123- Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion

(1957-59=
100)

July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August
September
October ....
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January .
February
March
April
May
, *

June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

(1957-59=
100)

122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

118

113

119

119
119
119

120
119

120
120

114
115
110
113
110

120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127

120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131

110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121

128
128

133
134
1 33
135
133
133

123
• 123
1 ?3
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129

119
119
120

129'
131
132
132
133
134
134
132
135
138
139
139
141
141
142
143
144
144

r!44
r!45
146

p!48

134
135
135
136
139
140
142
141
143
142
142
143
144
r!47
r!48
pi/ 9
(NA)

121

131
129
128
129
129
128
129
r!30
129
pi 29

(NA)

121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

125
126
127
127
128
127

130

127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
1 3/
1 TC;

129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
i 38
140
139

136
136

139

131
132
132
133
132

1 39

142
1 11

140

-\ i c.

139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143

140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149

•146
146
143
145
146
146
145
145
r!48
pi 49
(NA)

156
155
149
154
155
154
151
151

126- France,
index of industrial production

(1957-59=
100)
125
125
126
128
128
126
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
1 ?7

127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production

(1957-59=
100)
i si

17Q

1 /9

180
181

150
1 S3
158
160
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
i 7-1

136
138

1 7Q

140

172
169

1 "3Q
1 ?Q

(1957-59=
100)

170

1 no

179
179
178
179

184
184

191
190

191
?ni
202
207
PI i
p-| /
217
?19
ppy
/£/c4
ppy
^^4

141
140
141

168

226

166

228
233

132
132
141
142
142
138

166
156
165
166
168
168

23?
?^5?

138
140
139
141
140
142
138
138
146
r!47

166
169
166
169
174
176
178
175

r!78
p!79

pi 5 5

Dl/7

(NA)

(NA)

(MA)

243
237
242
240
234
243
241
238
243
240
p243
(NA)

r!54
156

164

239
241
237
?/?

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and ''NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.







Section TWO

charts and tables

DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS1 FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 mdusfries
Capital appropriafions—T7 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Car/oad ings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures-^22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




37

„„„„„, ,««

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Business cycle peak

Current expansion
Sept.
1965

Oct.
1965

Nov.
1965

Nov.
1948

Dec.
1965

July
1957

July
1953

May
1960

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more ,
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
,
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month

10
2
2
1

9
2
2
2
1

.

7

15

1

10
2
1

"4

2

"i

2
'i

1
1
5

'*4

7

5

24
29

24
21

k

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

2/4

17

9
1
5
1
2

15
33

24

16
2
1
2
3

24
0

24
0

*2

"i
X

20
0

2

21
5

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

8 months or more
.. . , ...
7 months
6 months
,
.,,.
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
„...."
1 month
..
Benchmark month
...
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date ................

1
2
8

1
1

'l
10

1
1
82

1
1
•73

1
1
100

1
1
91

Apr.
1953

Aug.
1948

Apr.
1957

"3
1

3

2
3

"3
3

1
3
4

1
4

2
3

1
1
0

1
1
27

1
1
36

1
1
27

6th month before business cycle peak

3d month before business cycle peak

Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

"i

"i
1
I
9

1

2

1

2

Jan.

May
1948

Feb.
1960

Jan.
1957

1953

Nov.
1959

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
,.. .
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

.

4

13
2

2
2
5
1
2
1

**4

1
a

20
5

21

4

2

21
5

1
2

9
1

13
2

"i
2
1
2
3

1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7

"5
2

3

24
0

24
0

X

20
15

2

21
33

ia
"i
2

1
2

6
7
3
2
2

i
2
1

24
0

24
4

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

2 '*

1

2

1
1

1

1

1

2

i

1
1
2
6
1
1
55

**3

1

5
4

3
2

4
5

3
5

1
1
36

1
1
IS

1
1
45

1
1
45

'l
1
3
6
1
1
55

"4
4
1
1
36

4
2
1

"i
3
1
1
27

NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
*4 series were not available.
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks vere reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.

38



bed

JANUARY

7966

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES

CHART

FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators

i

i

Dl.j Avg. workweekl prod, yvkrs., mfg.-21 Indus.

"

D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 jiindus.

i

is

1(

Dll. Newly approved cjapital appropriations- - 1 7 indus^NICB--] - --fj
(~~ 3-Q Ispon, ——• 1-Q span) I

- --J--4 —
D34. Profits, FNCB ?f NY, percent reporting
._.

[.higher profits-ZQP coi JLQ _sp on )

I

. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-80 Indus.

^J

J_._

!

••

I

,_i

_L

i'
JL

I

a__, .,.

!

D23. | Industrial materials prices-13 Indus, mils

.—I

j

D5. In^jial clajms, Stafe unem^L insuri-47 or ias (invited)

,

lUlllliuJj1 ".{^ ;'iiJlil}i4jyii^^

r.

J

_.L J j L i
ll
l

,
, ' lUulllW

•"Aii'--B^ ',,ftlil----:JxilKj;1,.-iLft2x^W^"•• H».- ilKS-•.- ^^/,--v-Si^S%f2- Wii*'='" liltiil; i|§;§i 1' m?, ^
;^i^i-.^^:xX;rv':":::^^;":^^
Vs^ *" I:*/


39

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY

1966

bed

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued

B

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators




Percent

too
so
0

047. Industrial pr<dudion-*24 indu;.

100
50

0

fj. Wholesale prjces, mfrd. qood^-23 inqus
i

(6-mo. jpanS—^

1-mo. s p a t i — ) _ j

100
50

0

100
50

0

m "tow fe te^ Safe 1 aiiH r ^ §

bed

JANUARY




ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1966

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes

Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:

035,036 (Oct. 1965)
048 (Dec. 1965)
D61 (Nov. 1965)

3rd Q 1964 - 3rd Q 1965
1st Q 1964 - 1st Q 1965
2rd Q 1965 - 3rd Q

1st Q 1965 - 1st Q 1966
1st Q 1965 - 1st Q 1966
4th Q 1965 - 1st Q 1966

CHART

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY

1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)

Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1

Year and month
1-month span

9-month span

1-month span

9-month span

3-quarter span

1-quarter span

1962
July

38.1
54. 8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7

42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0

56.9
36.1
48.6
.68.1
50.0
47.2

36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70,8

January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September ,
October
November
December

76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3

61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8

63,9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5

88.9
69.4
66,7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8

1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
97.6

85.7
50.0

55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
53.3
55.6
68.1

76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1

August
September
October
November
December

76

53

*59

74

47

53

*59

*53

53

'65

'65

*76

53

76

*56

71

53

'44

*32

*59

76

65

71

P71

69.4

1963

52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5

1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June.
July

August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

57.1
61.9
59-5
19.0
78.6
23.8
52.4
50.0
38.1
71.4
r85.7
P54.8

76.2
81.0
59.5
59.5
33.3

r54.8
r71.4
p76.2

48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
r6l.l
r58.3
P56.9

77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7

r68.1
r91.7
P77.8

P53

(NA)

(NA)

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)


42


bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span

D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (80 industries) *

D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)

D5- Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
9-month span

1-month span

9-month span

18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0

23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8

30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5

61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2

61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7

61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9

34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
63.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4

44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8

76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4

95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4

74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0

83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6

53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1

61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2

89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0

73.4
72,3
70.2
74.5

92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9

80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1

69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2

24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1

1-month span

9-month span

1-month span

1962

July

48

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July .
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
. *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

'56

69.4
78.1
36.2

8.1
98.7
84.4

50

*59

'56

*55

57

'06

57

*56

97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0

1.2
3.7

•61.5
38.5

63.8

38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2

31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4

89. 4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3

1965

January . . .... .

February
March
April.
May
, y
June
July
....
August
September
October
November
December.

55

*59

0.0
*55

(NA)

24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1

53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6

57.1'

61.5

3

46.2

78.7
78.7

'59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9

87. 2.

1966

January
February
March
April
May
June

3

61.5

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components.are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963;
on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964jv on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for January 17, 18, and 19.




on 79

43

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY

1966

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and month

D4L Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)

D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)

D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)

D58- Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)

9-month span

1-month span

6-month span

83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7

95.8
95.8
87.5
B7.5
91.7
83.3

41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4

32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1

83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77,1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4

50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1

70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.6
91.7
83.3
77.1

41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7

32.6
47.8
58,7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71,7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6

62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2

91-7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89-6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
9l'-7
91.7

43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
37.5
64.6
62.5
62.5

79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
68.8
83.3
81.2
60.4
62.5

63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60,9

69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.3
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6

66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
52.1
r75.0
r81.2
p81.2

83.3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
' r87.5
87.5
P87.5

50.0
72.9
20.8
62.5
83.3
39.6
81.2
41.7
72.9
P47.9
(NA)

75.0
87.5
91.7
68.8
79.2
P83.3
(NA)

63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
r52.2
52.2
r69.6
p71.7

76.1
80,4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60,9
p71 , 7

1 -month span

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

August
September ........
October
November ........
December . ,

61,7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3

51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0

52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4

66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

6f.O
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53,3
80,0

60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3

79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6,
50. .0
77.1

1964
January.
February,
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

53.3
33.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
75.0

75.0
75.0
80.0
S3. 3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
SO.O
90.0
90.0

1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June. , .
July
August
September
October
November
December

75.0
75.0
81.7
60.0
60.0
80.0
85.0
56.7
63.3
r85.0
r93.3
p88.3

83.3
76.7
80.0
78.3
76.7
76.7
85.0
r91.7
p91.7

1-month span

1962
July

1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

44



bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY 1966

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
035. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)

D36- New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)

D48- Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)

D6L New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

1-quarter span

Year and month

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

Actual

Anticipated

1962

July
August

September
October
November.
December
1963
January ..........
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. .......
1964
January
March

Apri 1
May
. *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June

65.6

62.* 5

*80

77

*76

73.7

78.9

'so

'76

*76

57.*9

68L4

'84

*82

'so

78.9

78.9

+21

*84

85

82

*84

68.*4

73.7

-39

*83

*87

*84

*S4

84.2

68^4

+11

'82

-

86

*8l

*84

73.'7

94.7

*83

87

*84

*84

52^6

89 .'5

+ 51

'84

*88

'84

*85

(NA)

89^5

+49

90

'88

90

*34

84.2

+23

*84

84^2

*87

84'. 4

+44

82

(NA)

+39

74

65.*6

+29

*76

68.8

87.5

63/2

65.6

75.0

63^2

68.8

56.2

*76

75.0

96.*9

*76

50.0

84.4

82

50.0

-67

74

75.6

71.9

68.4

71.9

71.9

42*.l

75.0

75.0

70

50.0

65 .*6

71

6S.*8

40.6

74

65.6

46.9

72

73.7

(NA)

*88

90

(NA)

.

r+41

r+22

56^2

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.




45

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY 1966

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1964

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.r

Nov.

Dec.P

Average weekly hours
DL AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(21 industry components)
40.9

Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

.

a. 2

41.3 .

41.0

40.9

41.2

41.4

41.4

40.7
40.8
41.7
42.4
42.2
42.2

41.0
40.7
41.6
42.1
42.3
42."2

41.2
40.3
41.9
42.1
42.3
42.3

41.5
41.0
41.8
41.9
42.3
42.6

42,1
40.7
41.3
41.8
42.1
41.7

41-9
40.5
40.9
41.9
41.8
41.6

42,3
41.1
41.5
41.8
41.4
42.3

r42.2
r41.4

42.7
41.8
41.6
43.2
41.0
42.4

43.0
41.0
42.9
41.2
39.9

43.1
41.0
43.4
41.2
39.9

43.1
41.1
43.3
41.3
39.8

43.2
41.2
43.5
41.4
39.8

42.7
40.8
42.2
41.3
40.0

43.0
40.5
41.8
41.5
39.8

43.5
41.0
43.0
41.7
40.0

41.1
38.4
41.5
36.4
42.5

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products

41.2

42.9
40.8
41.9
41.0
39.8

Machinery, except electrical
. . .
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

a. 2

40.5
40.6
41.6
41.8
42.2
42.0

All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products

41.3
39.2
41.8
36.5
43.0

U.I
38.3
41.9
36.6
43.1
38.6
41.9
42.1
42.2
38.2

41.1
37.4
41.8
36.2
42.9
38.6
41.8
42.7
41.9
37.9

41.0
37.7
41.8
36.4
43.4

r41.1
r38.0
r42.0

r43.6

37.3
42.3
36.7
43.7

38.6
41.7
42.0
41.6
38.2

41.2
38.9
41.9
36.6
43.1
38.6
41.9
41.9
42.2
38.2

40.7
37.8
41.7
36.0
43.0

38.5
41.6
41.8
41.4
38.0

41.4
38.5
42.0
36.5
43.1
38.6
41.8
41.5
42.2
37.7

38.6
42.2
42.7
41.6
38.4

38.4
41.9
42.5
42.3
38.6

r38.7
r42.0
r42.5
r42.5
r38.7

38.7
42.0
42.3
42.3
38.4

22,501
3,5B2
CM)

rU.7

r42.1
rU.l

r42.5
43.7

r£L.3
r43.3
r41.7
r40.2

36.5

43.8
41.4
43.0
41.9
40.2

41. a

Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
Blast furnaces, steel mills .
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries

19,454
3,663
2,072

20,720
3,821
2,243

21,271

21,130
3,802
2,291

21,714
3,593
2,018

21,509
3,119
1,465

22,163
2,908
1,276

22,425
3,148
1,451

r 22, 406

3,739
2,232

2,011

2,089

2,068

2,110

2,065

1,974

2,013

2,050

p2,218

2,971

3,098

3,092

3,050

3,100

3,318

3,315

3,349

3,370

(HA)

175

. 175

209

185

166

283

242

157

P233

(NA)

592
201

526
239

525
234

575
267

598
213

596
309

620
229

675
279

p66l
p27Q

(NA)
(NA)

233

237

237

234

245

250

248

259

p26t)

(HA)

r3,3B6
pi, 638

. .

Other primary metals. . .
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums , . .
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
}
Internal combustion engines *.
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
Metalworking machinery *
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
p = preliminary,
r = revised.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.

46



^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.

(MA)

NA=Not available,

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

"NIM.Y

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change
1-month spans

9-month spans

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components

01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries

60

19

+

-

79
+

24
-

52
0

0

50 38

71 86

55

95

60

76

81

60

60

33

55 71

76

61 68 78 75 78 68 67 68 92

78

+

-

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products ....
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:

0

+

+

+

-

+

4-

O

O

+

4*

0+

0

+

O

Food and kindred products

Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and related products.
Rubber and plastic products ...
Leather and leather products ..

O

O

+

+

-

+

O

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising

64

50 44

58 60 42

61

61

58 57

All durable goods industries
Primary metals;
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products:
Metal cans, barrels, and, drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products.
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
.Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling •
Metal working machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *..
General industrial machinery*.
Office and store machines*...
Service industry machinery *..
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.




*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

47

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

WNU«r

„„ £>«/

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964

1965

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.1

Millions of dollars
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' 2NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES - Continued
Electrical machinery
2,763
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* ....
} 620
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
655
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
4,283
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft

2,637

2,891

2,597

2,711

3,000

2,995

r2,983

P3,183

(NA)

604

649

586

604

690

622

r653

p652

(NA)

484

731

523

529

655

733

r577

p697

(NA)

5,172

5,546

5,690

6,301

6,141

6,853

r6,920

r6,0l6

p5,B69

114.8

115.0

115.5

117.1

120.3

.466
.444
.072
.074
31.469 29.918
1.930
.1.911

.497
.071
29.872
1.874

.506
.070
33.188
1.748

.475
.073
34.804
1.730

.524
.073
35.171
1.776

.150
.160
.302
.211
1.743

.150
.158
.301
.210
1.747

.149
.156
.299
.210
1.702

.148
.163
.298
.208
1.725

.149
.156
.296
.207
1.710

.186
.167
1 . 581 11.523
1
.250
.254
.074
.074

.162
11.488
.238
.074

.167
11.512
.234
.072

.180
11.553
.247
.074

.207
11.663
. 251
.081

Shipbuildingvand railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index

Index: 1957-59 = 100

113.2

112.5

110.6

110.7

113.2

115.2

Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.)
Zincflb.)
'...... .- . . .
Burlap (yd.)
„
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
......
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib ) . . . . .
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(24 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores

.-417
.065
41.534
1,889

.393
.073
39.824
1.629

.334
.074
36.165
1.614

.352
.073
36.060
1.564

.382
• .074
37.328
1.661

.149
.125
.309
.191
1.691

M48
.125
.308
.194
1.667

.149
.126
.307
.196
1.623

.150
.130
.306
.194
1.612

.150
.133
.305
.200
1.598

,138
11.838
.270
.074

.137
12.018
.258
.082

.138
12.080
.266
.080

.138
11.779
.264
.083

.149
11.803
.262
.080

.149
.148
.303
.211
1.712

Millions of dollars
21,661

22,781

32,900

23,317

22,805

23,544

4,774

4,913

4,714

4,841

4,809

4,996

P5,100

(NA)

(WA)

(NA)

1,609
1,580
191
466

1,653
1,600
196
442

1,704
1,715
193
439

1,720
1,712
196
456

1,699
1,666
208
454

1,775
1,740
207
468

pi, 805
pi, 768
p220
P476

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

261

257

258

265

253

267

p266

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

23,774 p23,959 p24,013 p24,303

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA = Not available, p = preliminary,
r = revised.
1
Average for January 17, 18, and 19,
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments"
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.

48




bed ««•«•"'««

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans

9-month spans

1965

1966

Diffusion index title and components

1966

H

_cb
CD
U_

06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
'.
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
.
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipmfint*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total

1965

tlro
S

i!_

>,

A
•
§ " 5
—»
—i

o - c a

<t

2E

+

+

+

-

+
+

-

+

+
- -

-

+

_

+

-

_ _

+

+
4

+

-

+

- -

+

-

+

-

<C

--

--

+

+

+

+

O--

+

tao=

+

rt
§"
co

<->
O

>
o
3E

t'-j

H

o
cu
Q

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

_

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

--0

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

'

+

+

-

+

-

--

+

+

+

-

-

+

- -

+

-

+

+

--

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
- . +

+
+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+.-

-

+

+

-

+
-

_

+
_

-

69

77

+

+
-

.

+

-0

-

+
+
+

+

- _

-

50

15

-

-

+

-

+

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES 2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index

54

58

46

42

35

62

62

77

69

69

77

62

69

54

54

46

46

46

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

60
+

62
+

75
+

B8
+

92
+

69
+

79
+

+
+
+
+
+
4+

+
+
+
+
+
-

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.)
Zinc(lb)
Burlap (yd.)

Pntton Hh ^ IR-rnnrUpt svpraop

Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(24 retail store components)

+

+

+

+

+

0

0

-

0

-

Percent rising
21 62 83 40 81 42 73 48 NA NA
Al 1 retail sales
+
+
+
+
+ NANA
Grocery stores
+
+
+
+
+ N A N A
Other food stores
+
+
+
+
- NA NA
+
+
+
+
+ NANA
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
+ +
+
+ + N A N A
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) . . +
+
+
- 4 - N A N A
Variety stores
+
+
+
4+ NA NA
Other general merchandise stores
+
+
+
+
+
O N A N A
+
+
+
+
- - . NA NA
Men's and boys' wear stores

+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.

83 NA NA
+ N A N A

+
+
+ NA NA
+
+
+ N A N A
+
+
+ N A N A
+
+
+ NANA
+
+
+ NA NA
+
+
+ NANA
- - - N A N A
+
+
+ NA NA

*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

1
Average for January 17, 18, and 19.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.




49

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY

bed

7966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components
Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Sept.p

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores.
Farm equipment dealers
.
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
".
Jewelry stores.
. .
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

517

518

531

531

513

511

511

(NA)

(WA)

(NA)

229
701
397
721
261

226
702
411
742
262

223
748
355
805
245

219
715
366
756
235

210
720
374
746
224

208
742
390
778
247

217
714
422
771
253

(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(WA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

3,428
257
1,738
724

4,344
244
1,755
731

4,470
239
1,749
734

4-, 60S
247
1,798
745

4,352
240
1,774
748

4,387
252
1,826
779

4,341
253
1,834
807

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

509

508

499

515

504

509

530

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1965
Feb.

Mar.

Apr,

1965
May

June

Sept.

Oct.r

60,756

354
495
1,079
977
1,208
1,152
1,280
248
342

105
527
357
500
1,068
983
1,218
1,163
1,267
251
342

1,135
68
823
1,195
497
622
548
110
363
310
627
3,189
4,049
3,273
9,327

Aug.

Nov.r

Dec.P

61,001
107
530
35B
500
1,046
987
1,224
1,182
1,263
252
349

61,430
108
537
362
504
1,035
1,007
1,243
1,197
1,276
254
354

61,797
109
544
368
511
1,040
1,014
1,243
1,213
1,288
254
362

1,129
68
825
1,205
499
621
546
11
1
362
310

1,144
70
828
1,212
500
625
544
110
365
311

1,165
70
835
1,221
506
630
554
11
1
379
315

617
3,186
4,067
3,281
9,360

622
3,202
4,071
3,288
9,396

1,172
69
833
1,216
503
629
547
11
1
372
313
627
3,271
4, OBI
3,301
9,443

Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures . .
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products . . . . ,
Petroleum and related products .......
Rubber and plastic products
,.
Leather and leather products
,
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade . . . ,

59,581
99
.

. .

59,846
98
532
356
498
1,050
966
1,176
1,119
1,218
241
334

60,032
99

531
351
4-98
1,050
962
1,164
1,097
1,192
240
331

59,814
99
541
354
502
1..052
943
1,174
1,109
1,210
240
333

1,155
75
812
1,186
493
613
537
10
1
352
310

1,155
74
815
1,193
493
615
540
110
356
312

1,136
74
818
1,197
494
615
538
110
358
310

1,141
74
817
1,198
493
615
538
108
357
312

634
3,211
3,985
3,217
9,206

632
3,238
4,017
3,231
9,229

629
3,145
4,013
3,241
9,253

627
3,188
4,020
3,252
9,280

NOTE; Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.

50



529
356
491
1,050
968
1,181
1,127
1,227
239
332

NA = Not available,

60,290
100
527
356
490
1,068
973
1,192
1,142
1,237
245
332

1,134
75
818
1,221
494
616
542
110
359
309
626
3,195
4,034
3,272
9,308

60,621
104
530

p = preliminary,

r = revised.

633
3,333
4,078
3,30B
9,499

„«

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change— Continued
1-month spans

9-month spans

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components

I 1- i -i ^ i t

i"

"o

o

•5

O

IS-

jb

^L

^

5^

i _«.

OJ

TO

Q.

CO

^

-3

-^

-^

I i I I1 I1 1

:

ZE

^
Q

<

U_

S

<C

e

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores. . . . . „
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

+

+

-

+

+
+

+

+

0

o
+
+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+
-

-

+

+

+

+
+

+

+

+ .

+
4.

+
4,

+
+

+
+
+

+
_

+

+
+

+
+
+

+

+
_

-

+
+
-

+

+

NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
WA NA
NA NA

-

-

0
o

+
+
+

+
+
+

- - + N A N A
+
f + N A N A
- NA NA

+

+

+

+

4-

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

- N A N A

+
+
+

+
+

+
+
-

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
-

+
+

+

+
+

+

+
-

+
+

-(- NA NA
+ N A N A

+

+
4-

4-

1-month spans

;=

0>

£

D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures . . . . .
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous man ufscturins industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products

k_

£

=1

~5

=l

?
.

TO*

-^

"^

"—

-^

<^

^

0

0

57
+

63
+

85
+

93
+

88
+

—

+
+

+
o

+
+

+

s

'

-

60 60
+
+

80 85
+
+

+

o

o

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

o

+

—

+

+

+

+

+

+ = rising; o = unchanged;




<

y

O

o

<

W

T

—

o

o

+

o

o

+

•—

+

80

O

<

78

i

77

>

r

90

83

77

77

+
+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

a

85

+

-

r

+

+
+

o

a

^

92

92

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

o

—

+

+
+
o
+
+

+
+
o

O

+

+
+

o
o

+
+
+

o
o

0

—

+

+

—

-j-

+

-

+

+

+

—

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+

-

+

+
+

+
+

-

+

t-

+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

H-

+

0

+

+
+
+
+

o

Mining
Contract construction , . . .•
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
•

NA NA
NA NA
NA NA

+
+

s S"

DO

+

.

MA

1 « 1 II t l - l ^ f t g i !

c

+

82
+

NA

1965

>»

0 . 0 3

TO

NA NA
NA NA

6-month spans

1965
4
|

+
4,

f-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+
o

+

+

+

_

+
+
+

+

+

+

4-

+

+
+

+

+

+

--

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

4

.
+

4

-

4

.
+

+
•

+

+

- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.

51

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

«NU«r .«. bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov. r

Dec.P

3,061
8,967
2,379
7,740

r3,069
r9,019
2,386
r7,785

3,073
9,060
2,400
7,851

3,076
9,095
2,410
7,887

Thousands of employees
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

3,013
8,771
2,338
7,503

3,023
8,794
2,342
7,546

3,024
8,814
2,344
7,580

3,032
8,843
2,345
7,610

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(24 industry components)
140.9

141.6

142.7

144.5

r!43.5

r!44.8

H6.3

H8.3

141.4
147.4

140.2
146.0

143*0
146.4

146.5
147.5

r!31.2
147.0

r!23.3
r!49.5

121.1
154.2

128
157

155*2
155.8
144.6
145.5

157*0
156.8
147.3
147.0

159! 4
158.4
149.5
149.8

162 '.4
160.1
151.5
152.6

162.4
162.1
149.4
155.7

165 ".7
rl65.5
r!53.6
r!58.0

166 ".8
168.0
156.0
159.2

129! 9
114.2

130.3
117.1

131.6
112.8

133*5
117.2

133*8
116.2

134.' 4
rll8.3

135*4
pl.18.2

169
170
159
161
135
145
(NA)

155.6
143.2

156.5
143.6

156*8
143.6

156*3
146.6

156*8
147.1

rl59'. 7
rl50,4

162.7
153.3

165
155

138.8

132.2
144.3
105.0

131.6
145.3
110.9

132.2
145.4
105.1

134*8
141.9
107.0

135*7
r!43.8
108.2

r!36.9
P145.7
P109.3

pi38.a

141
(IA)
(NA)
(NA)
139
(NA)
134
170
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
125
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

137! 5
127.7

140.0
128.3

140*9
129.3

139 .*4
130.0

141.1
133.0

143*9
129.3

r!42.2
rl31.1

169 .*5
122.2
172.6

169.2
121.5
167.7

169.3
122.9
168.2

169*9
121.8
169.1

174.2
125.8
168.1

176! 6
125.1
171.2

rl77.1
r!24.6
P175.5

123*4
123.5

123.4

127.2

122.5
120.9

121.9
116.5

122.3

121.8

122.4
120.7

123.2
120.6

rl23.6
plH.5

pi 44. 7
133.1
169.3
P178.5
p!25.0
(NA)
124.2
p!25.0
(NA)

103.2
110.6

Coal

139*0
128.5

167! 8
121.5
171.1

Minerals:
Metal stone and earth minerals

3,053
8,946
2,379
7,706

Index: 1957-59=100

All industrial production
139.2
140.7
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals . . . .
Primary metal products
136*9
140.4
145.2
145.0
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products . . . .
152.7
153 '.8
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
•°
152.3
154.1
' 139.7
Transportation equipment
144.4
Instruments and related products . . . . . . . . . .
145.3
146.9
Clay glass and lumber
»
'131.8 . 129.2
Clay glass and stone products
115.6 , .120.5
Lumber and products
«
Furniture and miscellaneous ........
Furniture and fixtures
154*3
154.' 3
140.8
142.4
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
132.0
Textile mil! products
131.5
144.0
143.7
Apparel products
106.6
106.1
Leather and products
•
Paper and products
Printing and publishing . . . .
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco . . . • »
Foods and beverages
•

3,041
8,857
2,355
7,659

103.1
111.4

107.9
112.0

113.0
111.9

117.1
112.5

115.2
114.2

106.7
rllO.6

116.8
rlH.2

115.7
113. S

123*4
122.9

124.6
124.1

125*8
118.2

121,6
123.9

123.7
125.8

130.2
129.1

122*4
127.4

rll6*5
rl25.5

p!20.6
P133.4

119
114
134
(NA)
(NA)

101.8

102.0

102.4

102.6

103.1

103.3

103.2

103.4

103.7

104.1

101.7
98.2
101.7
101.1

100.9
98.3
101.8
101.4

100.2
98.0
101.7
101. '5

99.6
98.0
101.8
101.3

99.3
98.0
102.1
101.3

101.0
97.7
101.7
101.3

101.6
97.7
101.7
101.4

101.8
97.9
101.6
101.1

102.5
98.0
101.5
101.3

103.1
98.2
1,01.8
101.7

•

Stone and earth minerals
D58- INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. NA = Not available, p = preliminary,
r - revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted "by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)

52


bed

JANUARY

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1 -mo nth spans

6-month spans

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components
H J i I 'i - l la o' ^ ^ L
l ^
J ^ s l
j b i
' t

<U
U

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

TO
- ^

O03
< C S

=J
^ -

- 3 = 3 n j t J
^ < t c o O

+

o
o>
o

0.

<g

gGO

"o
O

0
^

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

83

83

83

67

88

88

4,

4.

4.

4,

+

h

+

+

+

+

+

+

t

+

H

+

+
+

+•
+
+

+

O - 4 -

4-

4-

+

+

+

+

4 - 4 . 4 , 4 . 4 .

+

+

+

O

+

+

+

O

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

4-

4-

+

D47. INDEX.OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1.
79 58 71 81 81 67 52 75 81 81
All industrial production
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - +
4 ~ 4 ~
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
..... ...
+
+
+
+
+
Primary metal products
+
+
+
+
+
-+
+
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products . .
.
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 O
+
+
+
Machinery, except electrical
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Electrical machinery.
!
+
+
+
+
+
+
- + '
+
Transportation equipment
+
+
+
+'+
+
+
+
+
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
..
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Clay glass and stone products
NA
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
+
Furniture and fixtures
+
+
+
0+
+
+
+
+
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
..
4Textiles apparel and leather
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
Textile mill products
+
+
+
+
- - + > N A NA
Apparel products
- +
+
+
+ NANA
Leather and products
+
Paper and printing
+
+- +
+
+
+ NA
paper and products
4+
+
+
+
+
+
4,
Printing and publishing
+
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products .
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
D58- INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
»
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonrnetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
•
••

+

*...

0

+

+

+

—

+

+

+

O--

-

+

+

+

-

+
+

+
-

+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+

+

54 52
+ -

-

.=2

^03

7?

-0
OJ

J_
TO

ro

<t

+

+

O

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

NA

+
+

4.

4,

4.

4.

+

+

4.

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+

+•

-

-

—

—

+

+

+
+

NA
NA

+
+
,

+
+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

4 . 4 . 4 .

—

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+

+
—•

+

+

—

+

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
-

—
O

+

- -

+

• +

+

+

83
+

76
+

80
+

83
+

+

+

—

—

_

NA
NA
NA
+
NA

+
.4,

+
4.

+

+

o

+
4,

+
+
+
NA
NA

76 67 70 61 61 72
+ + + + +
_

_

4.

+

—

NA
4.

+
+
+ NA

-

+

—

NA
NA
NA

+
+
- NA

+

+

_

+

+

—

XX

+

-

+

4.

+

-

72
+

S

+

+
+

+

52 70
+ +

>•*

«0

-

+

+ NA
+ NA

Q

^

0
.

+

+
+

+
4.

+
+

]J3

6
<D

+

+
+

NA

+

*
0

_=

4+

+

—

OO

+
+
+
+

+

---

-

+
+
+
+

+

+

—

+
+
+
+

NA

+

-

+
+

+

+

+

-

+
+

+

+ NA

-

+

+
+

—

+

67 61 61 61
+ + + -

83 85
+ +

+

+

+

67
+

92
+

+

NA
NA

+

+

+

—

TO

o

+
4.

0
4,

—
Q

+
—

+
o

4-

—

o

4.

+

4- Arising; o = unchanged; - = falling, NA Not available.
•"•The percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.



53

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

i966

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Basic Data —Continued
1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components
Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

NovJ

Dec.P

117.2
101.7
110.0
105.9
104.8

116.8
101.7
109.7
106.0
104.8

117.8
101.9
109.9
106.3
105.3

1.17.1
102.0
109.6
106.6
105.6

Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING^Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Fabricated structural metal products
*•
Fabricated nonstructura! metal products. • • •

112.1
100.1
108.6
104.3
105.1

112.3
100.4
109.0
104.4
105.0

112.9
101.0
109.1
104.3
105.4

114.9
101.4
109.5
104.7
105.6

116.2
101.2
109.0
104.8
105.6

116.6
101.7
110.2
105.7
105.2

96.9

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
p = preliminary,

97.3

97.3

96.6

97.2

96.7

96.6

96.5

96.4

96.4

101.0
108.4

100.7
109.1

101.0
111.0

100.5
110.8

100.7
113.0

100.7
112.2

100.7
110.8

100.3
110.5

100.5
112.9

100.5
1 11
1.

102.2
108.0

102.0
108.0

102.9
108.5

104.1
108.4
100.1
103.8

106.2
107.7
100.7
103.9

107.0
107.1
100.8
105.1

106.1
107.4
100.9
105.5

106.1
107.4
101.0
105.9

107.1
107.6
100.9
105.4

109.8
107.9
100.9
105.5

99.2

99.3

99.5

102.9

102.7

102.8

96.4

96.2

96.0

95.8

103.3

103.4

103.5

103,4

103.6

98.7
97.4
94.0
92.0

99.3
97.3
94.5
92.1

99.6
97.5
94.4
92.2

100.1

100.1

97.5
95.5
93.2

97.4
95.4
93.5

105.9

106.7

106.4

107.3

107.6

94.8

94.4

93.3

92.6

103.9

104.1

104.1

104.4

100.3

100.3

100.5

100.8

100.9

97.3
97.4
93.4

97.4
96.7
93.5

97.6
96.8
93.1

97.5
98.0
93.1

112.0

111.2

112.6

r!03.9

113.3

91.9

97.7
97.7
93.4

114.3

r = revised.

are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.


54


95.7

(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)

Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not avail=
able from the Census Bureau.

bed ««u«r IN.

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans

6-month spans

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components
J | o . £ §
s < c s "?

=
—>

CD
U-

§
—»

-B
—i

+

+

O

O

+

+

_Q

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructura! metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods ................................
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
...
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel

J_

^

• .
>

TO a.
S
<C

2 > £ - t ; S £
<t <<> o ^ cp

'

re
S

QO

1

r~,

=
«C

•>

,'.

o
S

§-"0
c/o
O

£ £ . r a ' § -

+

+

+

~1~

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

—

+

+

O

—

O

—

O

+

+

+

O

-

+

+

-

-

-

+

-

+

-

O

-

0

+

-

> o
o i e
S=
Q

O

+

+

c - ^
< u
—>
Lto

+

+

r

+

^o
S

+

QJ

Q

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

O

+

+

+

+

+

-

|

_

~

f

-

f

,

-

t

-

Q

_

|

,

+

+

—

0

0

—

+
+
_

_

-

4

-

4

-

-

4

-

4-

4-

—
-|_

-

4-

-j-

4

Q

+

-

—

O

+

0

+

4 - 4 -

4-

Q

—

—

—

o

—

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

—

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

—

O

O

_j_

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

O 4 -

_f-

-|

—

—

0

+

—

4

+

o

+
-

-|

-J-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Chemicals and allied products

0

44-

4-

+
4-

4-

4O

4—

4-

+
O

4-

+

+

4-

O - J -

+

+

+

+
+

+
-J-

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

—

+

Q-

^

>

0

1-month spans

9-month spans

1965

019. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components) ^
Percent rising3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous . . *
Food composi te
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Text! le products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
.
Orugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies •
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite. ...........................
Life insurance

O

*L.
<C

o

O

-

^ g - ' o

5

Z

a. -*ii
5 j O
to
O

1965

.
S .
^ '
o 9
•J g <c s - -p i -^ s<S o?& ot j ^ S

>»

_

i ^ S

=

C D t a c L e o
U - S <
S

—i

3

~E

—>

=

—>

64

71

67

0

25

80

—

+

4-

—

—

4

-

+

+

-

+

+

4 - 4 -

+

-

4 - 4 -

+

-

4

-

+

-

-

§•

<:

co

81

"o

o

O

Z

^

°°

= ^ < ? §
t

J

A

73

68

+

i

O O A * L . >

1 9
£ 1

—

§ ^> <! co - ^^° '—s —v
= s O
^
—
'
'

67

70

57

77

77

80

58

O

—

—

+

+

+

o

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

0

--

4
4

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

0

-

+

+

---

+
+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

+

4

-

4
4

+

+

+

-

4

O

+
+

-

4

-

+
+

+
4

-

-

4

+

+

+

59
+

+

+
+

+
+
+

-

4 - 4 -

58

61
+

-

52

-

-

+

+

+

+

- | - - j - - l - , j _ - l _ _ 4 - - j -

—

0

+

+
+

+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+

+
+

—

4.

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

_

+

_

_

„

_

_

+

-

+

_

_

_

_

_

_

+

+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

_

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

—

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+
+

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

_

+
-

_

+

+

+

_

+

-

_

+

_

+
O

-

+

_

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

f
+

+

-

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

+
_l_

+
+

+
_^_

f
+

+

.j-

+
_

_

+
-

-

+

+

+

+

+

4-

+

+

+

+

—

-

+

+

-

+

+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
1

Data are not seasonally adjusted*
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1 6 and on 77 components thereafter.
94
2




representing an additional 23 of

55

1*5!

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

„„

IANMIiY

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans

1-month spans

1965

1965
Diffusion index title and components

j $ * s i f * 5 3 i i£l! = f j r § l l

I= f < t s l s 4 l l

D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)

66
4

62
-

60
_

4

51
-

4

34
-

38
_

_

79
4

57
,

_

45
_

51
4

74

72

79

79

60

66

62

79

81

87

.

*
-

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

_

+

--

+

-

+

+

+

4

+

—

+

—

—

+

—

+

—

+

4-

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

+

+
4 .

—

+

+

+

—

—

4-

+

—

—

4-

_

—

—

+

4

.

_

+

_

+

_

+

_

+

+

+

+

4-

-

4-

4

+

4,

+

.

++
4 , 4

+
,

4

,

4

.

+

4.

4,

4.

4,

4.

4.

+

+

+

—

+

4-

+

—

+

+

+

—

+

—

+

—

+

+

—

+

+

—

—

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

4.

—

4.

_

+

+

+

+

—

+

—

+

—
+
, 4 ,

4

4,

+

4

+
,

—
4-

4-

+

—

4,

4,

4,

4,

+
—

+

+

4

—

+

+
+

—

+

+
+

-j-

+

—
+

+
+

+

~+

—

+

+

+

+

~

+

+

+

+

+

—
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

—

+

—

+

+

+

+

—

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

—

—

4.

_

+

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

H-

+

—

+
_

4,

4.

+

+

—

+

+

+

—

•—

+

—•

+

+

+

+

+

—

+

+

4*

4-

+

+

+

+

+

4*

+

~

+

—

+

4"

+

4*

+

_

+

+

+

4-

+

+
+

4 - 4 - 4 -

+

+

+

4-

—

4.

4

+

+

- Arising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
^•Series components are seasonally adjusted "by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change Is determined.
(Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.


56


Section THREE

charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Currenf expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER




EXPANSIONS

Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference frough levels
Percent of specific peak levels
Percent change from specific trough levels

57

CHART

JANUARY

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

7966

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES

TyrTmrn™ Percent

PERIOD COVERED
—_ Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 {Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
-—..„ July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
-

-Reference trough dates

Aug. 1954)
Apr 1958)

May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Percent
-Reference trough dates

23. Industrial

130

materials prices

120

110

17. Ratio, price

110

to unit labor
cost, mfg.

100*

105

90
100*

70
95
24. New orders, mach.
and equip. Indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

AA

200
190
180
170

210
200
190
180
170
160

.*

• *• V*. • :

160
ISO

150

140

140 ;

130

130

120

c

120

110

110

100*

100*

90

90
J

iiJjjjijJt
-12 -6

80

minim

0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +«0
Months from reference troughs

-12 -6

0 +6+12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.




bed

CHART
JANUARY 1966

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED
—-— Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:

Oct. 1949)

July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:

Reference trough dates

Aug. 1954)
Apr. 1958)

" May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

43. Unemployment rate, total
-«

(percent unemployed, inverted)

Reference trough dates

41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

:

o

Percent
55.

Wholesale prices exc.

115

farm prod, and foods

110

105^

§

100*

J

95

-1 85,

-12-6

0

+6 4-12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

-12-6

0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc, 1Lint-s represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level,
if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.




59

CHART

JANUARY

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

1966

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

Percent
160

PERIOD COVERED
——

4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough:
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958

„..„.. 3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough:
.

2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough:

IIM

4th Q. 1949)

(Reference trough:

3rd Q. 1954)

2nd Q. 1958)

1st Q. 1961)

I i i i r-'Tp^

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

Percent

• Reference trough dates

49. GNP in current dollars

140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105

^ 95

67. Bank rates on
50.

GNP in 1958

dollars

short-term business loans

130
125
120 2
115 1
110

•o

105

100*

-J 90

95
Mill

-12-6

0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +-36 +42 +48 +54 +60

-12-6

0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6.
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Reference peak level.

^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.


60


*f Latest data anticipated.
O Point at wtiicli a new reference trough was reached.

Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle

bed

JANUARY 1966

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

CHART

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

nmpTT7T|,MH,H,M|M[t,(

,

PERIOD COVERED
Reference trough dotes

Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)

95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product

May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1

.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Hn 1 1 1 1 1 1 ] i H 1 1 1 1 i i 1 1 ] 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i i i 1 1 ] i nii111111]itin p

+20

,

+15

-Reference trough dates

115
+10
62, Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.

110

+5

105

100*
-10

95
98.

Change in money supply and time deposits

(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1

-+10
140
64. Book value of mfrs:
inventories

+8

135
130

+6

125
120 «>
—J

+4

115 2
110

+2
105

100*

95
-2

90
-12-6

0

+6

-+12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

111111111 11111
-12-6-0

+6

+ 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6.

Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1

cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. ' Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level, ^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.




O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.

61

TABLE

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

JANUARY 1966

O€€l

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Month
after
reference
trough1

Selected series

Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning inJuly
1924

July
1921

72.7
48.0
40.3
27.7

97.6
50.6
50.4
119.0

(NA)
35.0
15.6
168.3

43.2

15.3

107.9

207.5

142.8
39.4
211.5

29.1
58.9
(NA)

14.3
102.8
45.7

120.4
114.1
115.2

48.2
77.3
21.1

209.3
(NA)
70.4
112.0
(NA)
(NA)

52.9
(NA)
37.6
76.9
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
63.4
44.9
(NA)
(NA)

111.5
(NA)
296.0
79.7
(NA)
(NA)

94.0
(NA)
130.9
59.6
(NA)
(NA)

124.9
138.2

132.7
(NA)
194.6
196.5

89. 6
-16.9
75.6
80.8

63,1
(NA)
60.1
57.8

101.0
(NA)
122.9
123.6

86.9
(NA)
115.1
(NA)

115.2
145.1
133.1
128.7

123.9
146.0
134.8
125.4

(NA)
189.9
196.2
135.6

95.5
59.5
78.6
85.8

77.6
55.3
60. B
64.9

126.0
138.9
125.8
108.8

(NA)
107.1
(NA)
115.6

100.9

111.4

108.7

112.0

91.3

69.9

85.8

64.9

145.3
162.1

100.5
106.0

108.9
119,6

120.9
115.2

(NA)
(NA)

83.3
48.4

25.4
20.3

118.5
123.2

66.7
69.0

96.8

101.4
110.7
145.5
103.5

109.8
116.0
161.3
130.6

114.6
146.5
265.5
134.8

137.7
157.5
66.1
(NA)

98.3
110,7
128.1
53.3

69.7
(NA)
(NA)
101.0

85.9
(NA)
(NA)
109.6

73.3
(NA)
(NA)
82. 4

-5.8

+2.0

+6.08

+1.20

-10.0'
+5.74

(MA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Oct.
1949

June
1938

100,0

98.2

99,8
84.2
89.6

131.2

137.7

129.8

112.8
214.0
338.9
301.6

63.6
32.2
26.2
49.0

136.9

121.2

111.0

130.1

74.5

57th
57th
57th

153.0
113.4
135.8

122.3
127.9

135.7
192.1

134.1
135.0

33.2

71.8

80.3

54th
58th
58th
58th
58th
58th

160.1
106.2
166.1
112.5
148,3
125.9

122.3

88.7
94-4

126.5
123.0

128.4
101.8
236.6
107.2
154.4
114.9

123.7
138.1

41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. .
47. Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)

58th
58th
58th
57th

113.6

105.7

106.4

108.0

+1,1

-1,7

-2.4

-2.3

134,9
137,6

118.0
129.3

117.0
132.5

50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N.Y.
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55, Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods

57th
58th
58th
58th

126.9
166.6
157.0
132,7

118.9
141.3
128.5
121.3

58th

101.9

54th
63d
58th
57th
57th
57th

123.6
161.0

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

58th
57th
57th
58th

103.8
135.1
197,2
147.7

101,1
103,6

7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2
commercial and
industrial floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)

58th

16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits private housing

Aug.
1954

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

99.4

135.9
91.6

73.4
83.3

201,0
79.1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

,

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b Anticipated4"

*..

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .

98.5

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod, acct.(Q)3
98. Change in money supply and) time deposits 3i5

54th
56th

-8.5

+10.78

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominange" (MCD).of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 6.1, and 67). For series with an .MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 1, 9, 13..14, 17, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates NA=not available.
on period from February 1 6 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
91
2
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCI£ DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1 6 , changes are computed in a 3-term mov91
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series .
^Measures are differences from the reference peak levels .
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Ghanges are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted aeries.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
62
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

bed ««.«" ,«,

CYCLICAL

COMPARISONS

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Month
after
reference
trough1

Selected series

Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in-

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

+6.1
+5.0
+136.0 +205.1
(NA)
+62.6
+6.2 +138.5

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries

58th
57th
57th
58th

7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space^
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)

—

16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. •
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing

+ 5.4

+4.2

+25.0
+127.8

+14.0

+16.0

-17.3

+ 57,7

+70.2
+48,7

+33.3
+53.7

58th

*

+36.9

+24.9

-5.2

57th
57th
57th

+64.3
+22.0
+38.9

+55.6
+33.9

+62.7

-55.8

-24.6

54th
58th
58th
58th
58th
58th

+82.4

+57.4

+34.0

+7.2

+4.9

+4.1

+8.8
-3.0

+47.5

+55.7

+87.0

+93.4

+5.4

+7.2

+56.4
+29.8

+43.3
+20.9

+65.7
-3.9

+41.1
-13.7

+17.9

+2.3

+40.1

+24.2
+49.9

+28.6
+139.6
(NA)
(NA)

-8.2
-21.3
-29.0
+155.2

-25.8
-34.3
-43.2
-72.3

-7.1

-20.7

+186.1

-85.3

+9.0

+111.9

+55.3

+189.3
-54.2
+187.5

+143,3
-25.6
(NA)

-83.5
-0.9
-50.4

+73.4
+54.1
+27.7

+76.8
+6.8
+25.0

(NA)
(NA)
+12.0
+65.6
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
+81.5
+85.3
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
-51.6
-53.9
(NA)
(NA)

+107.1
(NA)
+184.2
-5 0
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
+77.0
+42.3
(NA)
(NA)

+48.1
(NA)
+184.8
+123.1

+30.9
+8.5
+56.8
+60.3

-34.3
(NA)
-36.1
-42.4

+16.3
(NA)
+49.6
+26.5

+26.2
(NA)
+68.6
+40.3

(NA)
+127.4
+120.3
+66.3

+32.5
+55.9
+59.8
+63.0

-24.1
-49.1
-39.7
-35.1

+26.4
+43.3
+25.8
+8.8

+39.0
+38.2
+47.0
+23.3

+18.5

+26.0

-24.9

-6.0

+2.5

(NA)'
(NA)

+385.5
+182.1

-71.1
-76.8

+69.8 +94.3
+76.5 +101.0

+34.1
+86.9
+168.0
-31.6

-29.2
(NA)
(NA)
+4.9

-16.4
(NA)
(NA)
+24.9

-18.5
(NA)
(NA)
-23.5

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

+0.8

+29.1
-31.5

+5.2

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 3 .
47 Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)

58th
58th
58th
57th.

+15.8

+10.0

+10.1

+13.7

+2.8

+1.5

+1.1

+1.8

+43.1

+37.4

+37.9

+31.6

+28.7
+33.5

+36.4
+43.0

50 GNP in 1958 dol lars (Q)
51. Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52. Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
.. .

57th
58th
58th
58th

+28.8
+62.7
+35.8
+35.3

+23.1

+17.9

+45.8
+28.3
+23.2

+42.8

+26.0
+52.0

58th

+2.0

+1.4

+33.1

+41.4

+29.6

+25.4

+12.3

+14.4

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated4"

54th

+ 55.8

+25.2

+14.0

+51.2

63d

+73.9

+31.9

+25.2

+44.0

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64 Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). ...

58th
57th
57th
57th

+25.0
+55.7

+14.9

+6.0

+19.9

-4.2

-4.8

+44.3

+6.7

+24.1
+ 56.0

+36.8

+18.6

+56.9
+112.0
+34.3

+32.7
+66.4
-29.1
(NA)

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod.acct.(Q?
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5

54th
56th

+2.0

+9.2

+0.8

-3.7

+ 5.30

+0.02

-1.80

+4.92

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50,61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1,2,3,6,7,9,13., 14, 17,24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA=not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for uhich data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series .
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels .
Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




63




Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough

Cycle

(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861.
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857
..October 1860.
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
. .March 1882 ..

(X)
18
8
32
18
65

30
22
46
18
34
36

(X)
48
30
78
36
99

(X)
40
54
50
52
101

May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
.June 1899
September 1902

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
4?

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919 . .
July 1921

May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7

is"

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953

14
13
43
13
8
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
93
45
56

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May 1960

13
9
9

35
25
(X)

58
44
34

48
34
(X)

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles , 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

2
54
3

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

.

*49

46

4
46
5
48
6

42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
5
T
3
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
6
4
2
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




65

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
cSpecific

Selected series

1trough da1tes for resference e;xpansion£j beginnirig

Apr.
1958

Feb.
1961

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

in —

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts , commercial and
industrial
13. New "business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ..»
23 . Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus...
29. New "building permits, private housing

4
Dec, '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. ' 9 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb, '21
May
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.

'1
6
'61
'61
'60
'0
6
'0
6
'60

June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.

'58
>57
'58
'57
'58
'58
»58

(NSC) Aug.
(NSC) Feb.
Mar. '54 July
Sep. '53 June
Feb. '54 June
Mar. '54 Apr,
Sep. '53 Jan.

'9
4
'49
'49
'49
'9
4
'9
4
'49

Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27
•Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

July '24 Mar. '21
June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
Oct. '23 Aug. '21
June '24 July »21
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
6
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments. Feb. ' 1 May
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) . . . . . May '61 July
....
Apr.
Feb . ' 61
47. Industrial production. . „
49 . GNP in current dollars (Q)
4thQ '60 IstQ
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
IstQ ' 1 IstQ
6
(NSC) Feb.
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction,. Dec. '60 May
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. ' 1 Mar.
6

4
'58 Aug. '54 Oct. ' 9 June
4
'58 Sep. '54 Oct. ' 9 June
4
'58 Apr. '54 Oct. ' 9 May
'58 2ndQ '54 4thQ ' 9 2ndQ
4
4
'58 2ndQ (54 2ndQ !' 9 IstQ
'58 Apr. '54 July 49 May
4
'58 Sep. '54 Oct. ' 9 June
(NSC) May
'58 Jan. '54

'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.

2
'33 Jan. '28 July ' 4 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33

3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ

'38 IstQ
' 0 July
4
'39 May
' 0 3rdQ
4

'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.

Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Sep.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories.... June
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ

'61 3rdQ
'61 Apr.
' 61Aug.
'61 2ndQ

'58
'59
'58
'58

IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ

'55
'55
'54
'55

4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ

'9
4
'50
'50
'50

£Specific i>eak date^3 for refeirence coiitractionsi beginnirig in—

Selected series

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... May
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
June
industrial
Apr.
13, New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
,. May
July
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23 . Industrial materials prices
Nov.
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus.. .July
Nov.
29. New building permits, private housing

»59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53

' 60Mar.
'59 Feb.
'59 Oct.
'59 July
'59 Dec.
'59 Nov.
'58 Feb.

'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55

(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22

(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.

'46 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22
'46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NSC) Mar. '23
' 8 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
4
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'47

(NA)
Dec. '19
Dec. '19
(NA)
July '19
Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
,
53. Labor income in mining, rafg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores . . . . . . . .
........

Apr. '60 Mar.
Feb. '60 Mar.
Jan. ' 0 Feb.
6
2ndQ ' 0 3rdQ
6
IstQ '60 3rdQ
(NSC) Aug.
May ' 0 Aug.
6
Apr . ' 60Aug.

'57 June
'57 July
'57 July
'57 2ndQ
'57 2ndQ
r
57 Oct.
'57 July
'57 Mar.

'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53

Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
July ' 8 May
4
4thQ ' 8 3rdQ
4
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. ' 8 May
4
(NSC) Sep.

'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
'57 Sep.
'57 4thQ

'53
'54
'53
'53

4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ

'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37

Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ '60
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . Mar." '61
Sep. 160
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans ( ) 4thQ '59
Q.

3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ

' 8 3rdQ
4
' 9 Dec.
4
' 9 Oct.
4
' 9 3rdQ
4

'37 2ndQ '29
(NSC)
'37
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29

4thQ ' 6 2ndQ '23
2
(NSC) Oct. ' 3
2
(NA)
(NA)
2
4thQ '26 3rdQ ' 3

2ndQ '20
Nov. '20
(NA)
4thQ '20

NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trougn" or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.

66




Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes

i/5

Period
covered

Monthly series

CI

I

C

T/5

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod. workers, mfg
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .48
.42
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. ' 53-Sep/' 65 4.75
4.47
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries.. .
Jan.'53-Aug. '63 1.82
1.29
3. Layoff rate manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.20
8.26
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. '53-Sep>'65 17.13 16.59
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.95 4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan.. ' 53-Sep. '65 3.76 3.33
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus.... Jan. f 53-Sep. '65 4.18
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan ' 53-Sep ' 65 9.30
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
May T59-Sep. '65 7.16
29. New "building permits, private housing. Jan. '53-rSep. '65 3.65 '
38. Index of net "business formation
Jan ' 53-Sep '65 .79
13. New "business incorporations
Jan. '53-Jul. '63 2.68
14. Liabilities of "business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74
15. Large business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 12.31
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
26. Buying policy production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
23, Industrial materials prices...*
Jan. '53-Sep. '65

3.81
9.17
4.39
7.08
3.28
, .60
2.36
18.24
12.12

.19
1.40
1.18
3.42
3.64

2.23
3.20
1.09
2.41
4.55

3
4
2
3
5

.74
.84
.59.
.77
.96

2.08
2.14
2.27
1.95
1.57

1.50
1.54
1.63
1.46
1.42

11.69
9.50
9.77
8.94
6.61

3.75
3.72
5.25
4.69
2.69

2.17
1.51

2.02
2.20

2
3

.95
.66

1.69
1.81

1.42
1.58

12.67
8.44

3.97
4.41

1.52

2.51

3

.88

1.83

1.60

10.86

3.41

.97 9.41
1.43
3.08
.89 7.91
2.54
1.29
.53 1.15
1.10
2.15
1.70 10.72
7.84
1.54

6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6

f1)
.4
8

.80
.66
.77
C1)
C1)

1.60
1.48
1.88
1.71
1.38 1.38
1.85 - 1.52
1.63
2.71
2.10
1.70
1.43 1.32
1.55 1.46

12,67
9.50
15.20
13.82
6,61
6.30
5.77
11.69

3.00
3.39
2.63
2.88
4.08
3.02
2.26
2,58

C1)

.59
2.49

.9
4
1.68

.25
1.64

1.92
1.02

3
2

.81
.57

2,20
2.37

1.79
1.58

6.61
9.50

4.55
3.97

6.46

5.24

2.84

1.85

3

.76

2.37

1.62

7.60

3.57

5.27

4.77

1.98

2.41

3

.77

1.88

1.63

8.94

3.49

7.47
1.31

5.79
1.04

4.00
.73

1.45
1.41

2
2

.95
.99

3.17
2.49

1.85 8.94
2.11 11.69

3.77
3.87

.30
.36
3.93
5.61

.14
.29
2.97
4.60

.26
.20
2.39
2.53

.55
1.49
1.24
1.82

1
2
2
2

.55
.78
.61
.95

4.90
1.95
2.58
2.89

1.46
1.55
1.45
1.46

16.89
25.33
6.61
7.65

4.90
3.77
3.87
3.91

4.19
3.00

2.19
1.87

3.29
2.30

.67
.81

1
1

.67
.81

4.90
3.10

1.75
1.39

7.60
8.94

4.90
3.10

1.02
1.57
.51
.4
8
.89

.54
1.50
.26
.52
.76

,76
.64
.44
.63
.46

.71
2.34
.58
.82
1.67

1
3
1
1
2

.71
.58
.58
.82
.98

3.62
1.65
4.61 2.67
2.17

1.67
1.50
1.54
1.55
1.71

11.69
30.40
21.71
13.82
15.20

3.62
4.29
4.61
2.67
3.51

.16

.09

.13

.71

1

.71

3.90

1.54

8.00

3.90

Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan '53-Sep '65

.56
.53

.0
4
.19

.32
.9
4

1.28
.38

2
1

.72 2.41
.38 10.13

1.57 ' 6.61 3.51
1.63 21.71 10.13

Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65

.56
.4
8

.33
.11

.51
.82

.65
.14

1
1

.65 8.94
.14 11.69

.1.49 13.82
8.94
1.63 21.71 11.69

4.25
4.42
3.80
3.87
26.87 26.37
15.12 14.78
24.51 24.35

.82
.60
4-09
2.70
2.94

5.16
6.37
6.45
5.47
8.28

6
6
6
6
6

1.57
1.59
1.51
1.47
1.58

1.45
1.43
1.46
1.43
1.47

8.00
14.87
5.93
6.61
5.95

2.58
3.35
2.27,
2.48
2.86

1.92 11.72
4.46
1.12
.93 1.41
.53 2.48
1.90
1.10
.65
.11

6
2
2
4
3
1

C1)
C1)
t1l)
(1 )
C)
C1)

1.57
.73 2.53
.98 2.76
.93 2.27
.87 2.58
.65 10.00

1.48
1.77
2.00
1.62
1.88
1.92

9.50
6.61
8.00
5.67
8.00
5.56

2.53
3.68
3.68
3.61
3.66
10.00

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
42 . Total nonagri cultural employment
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
43, Unemployment rate, total
*
Jan '53-Sep '65
40 . Unemployment ratef married male s
Nov. <54-Sep. '65
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
T
i co Od-n t £.£;
rate, State . .
46. Help-wanted advertising
Tan t ^ 1, QQT-I t ^*i
QTI

47.
51.
52
53.
54.
55.

Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
Personal income
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Sales of retail stores
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Wholesale prices except farm products
and food s
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64. Book value of rnfrs. ' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
66, Consumer installment debt
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82.
83.
90
91.
92.
114
115
116.
117.
118.

Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Federal cash payments to public
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '55-Dec.'64
Jan. '53-Jun. '63
Defense Dept. oblig. , procurement
Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. '53-Jun. '63
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Military contract awards in U.S
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields
Mortgage yields

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 22.53 22.53
5.00
Jan ' 53-Sep '65 6.70
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.65
1.31
1.31
Jan. '60-Sep. '65 1.44
2.08
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.46
.07
.11
Jul. '61-Set>. '65

See footnotes at end of table.



67

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1,-Average Percentage Changes-Continued

i/c
Monthly series

Period
covered

CI

I

C

T/c

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

MCD

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES— Con.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
Jan. '5 3- June '62
87. General imports
Jan. '53-June'62
81. Consumer prices ........................ Jan. '53-Sep. '65
94 . Construction contracts, value
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan.1 53-Sep. '65

4.58
3.62
.15
6.64
1.45

4.37
3.45
.09
6.38
.54

1.06
.93
.13
1.55
1.28

4.11
3.72
.69
4.12
.42

5
4
1
5
1

.80
.89
.69
.87
.42

1.77
1.59
5.63
1.55
5.63

1.61
1.47
1.54
1.52
1.57

8.07
8.69
16.89
8.00
10.86

3.21
2.97
5.63
3.15
5,63

.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.70

.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.07

.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.23

1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
.87

2
3
2
3
3
3
1

.79
.86
.8
.7
.64
.84
.67
.87

3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
2.91

1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.52

21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
17.86

4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
2.91

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . Vest Germany
126 . France
127. Italy
128 . Japan

Quarterly series

Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan.1 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan*'53-Junet63

Period
covered

CI

I

C

I/C

QCD

I/C
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

QCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.

New capital appropriations, mfg
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries

IQ'53-IIIQ<65 10.36
IQ'53-IIIQ'6f? 5.60
IQ'53-IIIQ'63 6.76

4.70
3.09
4.80

7.69
4.29
4.17

.61
.72
1.15

1
1
2

.61
.72
.56

2.94
3.33
2.47

1.32
1.32
1.40

3.33
5.00
5.25

2.94
3.33
2.73

IQ'53-mQ'65

4.34

2.87

3.11

.92

1

.92

2.38

1.25

5.00

2.38

IQ153-IIIQ'63
IQ'53-IIIQ'6S
IQ'53-IIIQ'63

1.23
1.47
1.30

.38
.35
.31

1.09
1.39
1.26

.35
.25
.25

1
1
1

.35 3.33
.25 5.56
.25 10.00

1.28
1.22
1.16

IQ'53-IIIQ'63

3.21

.77

2.99

.26

1

.26

5.56

1.47

5.56

5.56

IQ'53-IIIQ'65

.4
8

.42

.67

.62

1

.62

2.94

1.22

5.56

2.94

IQ'53-IIIQ'63

1.99

.96

1.80

.54

1

.54

2.38

1.47

3.33

2.38

IQ'53-IIIQ'65 11.47
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.63

7.37
2.47
1.20

7.95
3.27
6.38

.93
.75
.19

1
1
1

.93
.75
.19

2.38
2.08
4.17

1.16
1.25
1.32

3.85
4.17
8.33

2.38
2.08
4.17

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57 Final sales

3.33
5.56
7.14 5.56
10.00 10.00

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110. Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro. , mfg

•'•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.

The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in glectronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical

68



component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCDf" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD' is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the

irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month _spans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period. For .quarterly series, I/C .is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD

curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
debits, all SMS&'s except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component,
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates'
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving!
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes

Monthly series

31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories

Period
covered

Unit of
me asure

CI

I

C

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..

3.47
.74
3.60
20. Change in book value of manufacturers1
do
inventories of materials, supplies. . .
.29
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
1.44
1.51
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.6
4
.13
.48
r
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Jan. '55-Dec. 64 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 4.34
4.22
.82
93. Free reserves.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.10 78.89 46.86
85 . Change in money supply
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
• percent. . . 3.11
3.12
.29
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65....do
.29
2.53
2.52
112. Change in business loans.
Aug. '59-Apr. '64 Ann. rate,
1.19
.26
bil. dol.. 1.22
.79
.31
do
.87
113. Change in consumer installment debt... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
88. Merchandise trade balance
Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28

Quarterly series

Period
covered

21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
89a U.S. balance of payments (liquidity).. IQ'53-IIIQ'65

Unit of
.measure

I

C

4.70

5

.98 1.48 1.45

8.94

2.79

4.97
3.51

6 t 1 ) 1.67 1.50
4 .98 1.69 1.62

6.08
7.60

3.00
3.10

5.16
1.68

5
3

.98 1.59 1.43 7.44
.68 2.03 1.60 10.13

2.74
3.49

10.88
8.78
4.51
2.56
3,23

Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.

The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid___the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in

6 t1) L.37 1.37 9.50 2.67
6 t1) 1.43 1.43 ' 10.13 2.41
5 .93 1.47 1.47 6.22
3 .92 1.65 1.49 10.13
3 .97 1.82 1,61 9.42

2.48
3.13
2.64

I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
QCD for
I/C
QCD
C QCD
span CI I

Ann. rate,
1.44 1.00
bil. dol.. 2.28 1.43
2.49
1.35
1.78
.76
do
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04

1




cT

i/c

I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
MCD MCD
C MCD
span CI I

4
2 . 6 1.79 1.35 4.55 2.88
1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85 2.17
2 .45 1.67 1.25 3.13 2.72

the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.

69

Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1965 TO JUNE 1966)

1965

1966

Series
May

June, July Aug. Sept.

7776 73 #
4. Temporary layoff , all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
82.3 83.8
103.1 105.8
13. New business incorporations1
95.7 106.6
14. Liabilities of business failures

107.1

55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods.... ,
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg...
81. Consumer prices.
82. Federal cash payments to public1 . . .
...
83. Federal cash receipts from public1...
Defense Dept. obligu, procurement....
Defense Dept. obligations, total..,..
Military contract awards in U.S
Change 121 business loans3
Japan, industrial production index...

89.9

Feb. Mar, Apr.

92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1

92.6

May June

73.3

81.9

107.2 140.3

86.9

90.4

105 3 83.9
102.6 95.0
100.7 104.7

77.4
93.1
96.7

82.6
88.6 104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1
0.
94.9 86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 1 1 6 102.6 105.2
95.8 107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1

99.5 102.3 86.3 95.7 91.3 94.8 95.0 83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106.7 100.8 101.6
101.3 102.3 96.3 98.8 101.8 102.7 100.6 97.5 98.2 99.5 100.2 101.0 101.4 102.6
106.2
96.3
100.5
96.9
106.3
107.4 111.3 102.4 112.2 121.8 111.7 97.6 82.1 79.3 76.7 92.8 102.1 110.7 109.8

15 . Large busine ss failure s
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
IB. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
37. Purchased materials,, percent reporting higher inventories

90.
91.
92.
112.
128.

Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.

92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9

92.7

90.2

88.6

100.0
98.6
99.7
98.4
117.5

99.9 99.9 99.8
99.9
97.7 104.1 101.2 98.3
99.9 100.2 100.0 100.1
1 4 0 97 0 114 2 96 9
0.
152.3 49.1 1 4 4 124.9
1.

100.0
97.0
100 1
101 9
45.4

100.0
99.5
100 0
10-1 4
101.6

100.1
102.6
100 0
105 8
107.9

100.1
102.3
100 0
91 4
68.0

93.8
88.6
90 2
100 0
100.1

87.4 87.1 93.2
179.9
143.1 115.2 1 92.4 99.7
171 9 72 8 88 4 103 9
99 5 98 9 98 5 99 3
99.8 100.0 96.4 99.5

100.0 96.4
106.3 91.7
101 1 85 4
99 9 101 3
99.6 98.8

99.2
96.1
90 5
101 3
102.3

82.8
94.4
95 5
100 4

99.0

94.8

92.9

101.6

100.0
100.6
99 9
94 4
113.0

100.0
99.8
99 9
94 1
126.5

100.0
98.9
99 9
97 3
80.4

99.9
99.9
98.6
97.7
99 8 99 9
100 3 104 7
1 8 4 152.6
1.

83.4
82.0
87 2
99 5
94! o100.7

99.2
97.5
113 8
100 5
108.2

95.6
96.1
84 3
100 5
99.4

95.7
91.4
90 1
100 2
99.9

179.0
142.2
174 7
99 8
100.6

NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in .middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.

70




Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May

1920-July
1923-July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937- June

1921
1924
1927
1933
1938

Feb . 1945-Oct . 19454
Nov . 1948-Oct . 1 4 .
99
July 1953-Aug . 19545
July 1957-Apr . 1958
May 1960-Feb 1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.

Reference peak to reference trough

50. GNP 49. GNP
in 1958 in curdollars rent
dollars
(Q)1

43. Unemployment rate, total

51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York

52. Personal
income

54. Sales
of retail
stores

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-6.2
0.0
0.0
-74
4.
-18.5

+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4

-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9

+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9

+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7

-16.0

-1.9

-2.8

-3.1

-2.0

-1.2

-16.0
-8.8

-2.1
-1.9

-2.8
-1.3

-3.6
-0.8

-2.4
+0.1

-1.8
-1.2

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index
of industrial
production

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-04
1.

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-41
1.
-5.7

-5.6
-6.5
-3.6

1

(Q)

Percent change:

Change
in rate,
peak to
trough

Rate at
peak

2

2

4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2

2

2

Rate at
trough

2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

11
.
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9

+3.4

3.5

7.2

+3.6
+3.4

3.9
40
.

7.6
7.2

3

43. Unemployment rate, total

Reference trough to reference peak

4 . Em1
ployees
in non^
agri. establishments

47. Index
of industrial
production

50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1

July 1921-May 1923
July 1924-Oct . 1926
Nov. 1927-Aug. 1929
Mar . 1933-May 1937
June 1938-Feb. 19454

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+3.
117

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0

-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-89
1.

Oct. 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug. 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May

+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2

+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4

+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1

+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+14
4.
+22.1
+13.3

+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8

+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4

+17.5

+35.2

+12.3

+27.5

+33.8

+26.7

+19.9

-3.7

7.1

3.3

+13.0
+13.0

+26.6
+23.6

+12.1
+11.6

+20.9
+28.6

+24.4
+39.0

+21.3
+25.3

+14.7
+23.2

-2.6
-2.0

6.3
6.8

3.7
3.9

Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak

1948
19535
1957
1960

Median: 6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945...

49. GNP
in current
dollars
1

(Q)

51. Bank
debits ,
all
SMSA's
except
New York

52. Per- 54. Sales
sonal
of retail
income
stores

Change
in rate,
trough
to peak

2
2

Rate at
trough

2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

Rate at
peak

2

3.2
1.9
2 3
3.2
11.2
1.1
2

3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
^-Ttie most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier"dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




71

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES

Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours per production worker)

1948

1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

1955...
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962

;.

40.4
39.3
39.7
40.9
40.6
41.0
39.5
40.3
40.8
40.4
38.8
40.2
40.6
39.2
40.0

40.2
39.4
39.7
40.8
40.7
40.9
39-7
40.5
40.6
40.4
38.6
40.2
40.1
39.3
40.3

40.3
39-0
39.7
41-0
40.6
41.1
39.4
40.6
40.4
40.3
38.7
40.4
39.9
39.3
40.5

40.2
38.6
40.1
41.2
40.1
41.0
39.4
40.6
40.7
40.2
38.6
40.6
39.7
39.6
40.7

40,3
38.8
40.2
40.9
40.4
40.9
39.5
40.9
40.2
39.9
38.7
40.6
40.0
39.7
40.4

40.2
38.9
40.5
40.7
40.5
40.7
39.5
40,6
40.1
39.9
39.1
40.5
39.9
39.8
40.4

40.0
39.1
40,9
40.6
40.2
40,6
39.6
40.6
40.3
39.9
39.2
40,2
39.9
40.0
40.5

40.1
39.1
41.1
40.3
40.5
40.5
39.7
40.6
40.1
39.8
39.4
40.3
39.6
40.0
40.3

39.8
39.5
40.7
40.4
41.1
39.7
39.5
40.7
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.1
39.4
39.6
40.6

39.8
39.5
40.9
40.1
41.1
40.1
39.6
40.9
40.5
39.3
39.5
40.1
39.6
40.3
40.2

39.8
39.1
41.1
40.4
41.0
39.7
40.1
41.0
40.4
39.2
39.8
39.9
39.3
40.6
40.4

39.5
39.3
40.9
40.6
41.1
39.6
40.0
40.9
40.6
39.0
39.8
40.1
38.3
40.3
40.2

5.0
4.1
5.8
5.0
5.8
3.7
4.0
4.6
4.8
3.3
3.9
3.8
3.5
4.3
3.9

4.9
4.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
3.7
4.6
4.7
4.3
3-1
3.9
4.2
3.6
4.3
3.8

4.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.8
3.7
4.3
4.3
4.0
3.0
4.2
5.6
3.6
4.1
3.8

1.5
2.8
1.1
1.7
0.9
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.5
2.7
2.1
2.9
2.6
1.8
2.0

1.7
2.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
2.4
1.7
1.3
1^6
3.0
1.9
2.5
2.7
1.9
2.0

2.3
2.1
1.2
1.5
1.0
2.5
1.8
1.5
1.5
2.7
1.9
1.9
2.8
2.0
1.9

45,094
43,163
46,652
48,049
49,719
49,845
49,129
51,514
52,754
52,490
51,875
53,514
53,838
54,600
55,879

45,051
43,525
46,784
48,188
49,993
49,673
49,277
51,746
52,898
52,312
52,009
54,043
53,570
54,720
55,880

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962

5.6
3.9
4.5
6.4
5.3
5.5
3.4
4.1
4.2
4.0
3.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.3

6.5
3.9
4.3
6.2
5.3
5.7
3.3
4.3
4.2
3.9
3.1
4.3
4.1
3.7
4.2

5-4
4.0
4.8
6.0
5.0
5.7
3.6
4.7
4.0
3.7
3.2
4.6
3.7
4.4
4.1

5.4
4.0
4.8
6.0
5.0
5.7
3.1
4.5
4.3
3.7
3.3
4.3
3.6
4-2
4.2

5.3
4.4
5.5
5.5
4.9
5.0
3.3
4.6
4.2
3.6
3.5
4.1
3.8
4.2
4.2

6.2
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.2
3.5
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.7
4.2
3.7
4.0
4.0

5.6
4.2
5.7
5.0
5.3
4.9
3.5
4.2
4,0
3.9
3.9
4.1
3.6
4.0
4.2

5.2
4.5
6.5
4.4
5.9
4.5
3.5
4.6
3.9
3.3
3.9
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.0

5.2
4.3
6.0
4.5
5.9
4.1
3.6
4.5
4.2
3.3
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
4.0

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962

1.4
2.8
1.9
1.0
1.5
0.9
2.9
1.5
1.6
1.5
3.4
1.8
1.5
2.7
1.8

1.9
2.5
1.9
1.0
1.5
1.0
2.7
1.4
2.3
1.7
3.3
1.7
1.9
3.0
1-9

1.4
3.3
1.7
1.0
1.4
1.0
2.8
1.5
1.8
1.6
3.4
1.7
2.3
2.5
1.7

1.4
3.2
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.0
2.8
1.4
1.6
1.7
3.3
1.7
2.3
2.1
1.8

1.1
3.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
2.3
1.4
2.1
2.0
3.0
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.0

1.3
3.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.2
2.4
1.7
1.9
1.7
2.4
1.7
2.5
2.3
2.0

1.6
3.0
0.8
1.8
3.1
1.5
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.5
1.9
2.4
2.2
2.1

1.8
2.6
0.8
1.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.6
2.0
2.4

1.4
2.6
1.0
1.8
1.0
2.0
.2.1
1.4
1.8
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.1
1.9

41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (Thous.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962

72


44,658 44,541
44,622 44,445
43,467 43,192
47,267 47,518
48,268 ' 48,456
50,084 50,320
49,380
49,300
49,388
49,555
52,138
51,909
52,848 53,044
52,045 51,476
52,434 52,580
54,201
54,427
53,517 53,367
54,685 54,993

44,662
44,214
43,871
47,725
48,473
50,398
49,095
49,870
52,152
53,100
51,189
52,898
54,374
53,470
55,124

44,342
44,058
44,276
47,890
48,494
50,418
49,008
50,114
52,310
53,070
50,922
53,251
54,548
53,499
55,407

44,659
43,848
44,607
47,829
48,538
50,394
48,856
50,446
52,415
53,042
50,822
53,470
54,388
53,676
55,485

44,925
43,626
44,995
47,951
48,142
50,416
48,S10
50,730
52,503
52,995
50,873
53,633
54,286
53,918
55,559

45,124
43,457
45,387
47,951
47,986
50,413
48,719
50,857
51,815
53,011
50,956
53,708
54,214
54,041
55,637

45,040
43,506
46,064
47,815
48,705
50,304
48,691
50,949
52,461
53,026
51,157
53,250
54,196
54,219
55,703

45,143
43,671
46,298
47,770
49,146
50,173
48,750
51,103
52,437
52,792
51,412
53,278
54,083
54,246
55,796

45,087
42,811
46,522
47,815
49,451
50,115
48,858
51,329
52,702
52,697
51,414
53,223
53,975
54,334
55,830

INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Timing
classification

Charts

1

2

Tables

3

1

2

4

5

Appendixes

6

7

B

C

D

F

G

E

Page

Page

Issue

Issue

73

July '64

1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. .
2. Accession rate manufacturing
»
46 Help-wanted advertising.
.'
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus
41. Employees in nonagrL establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males.

L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C

10
10
15
10
15
15
10 •
10
10
15
15
15

C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C

16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17

59

59

8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28

62
62

63
63

66

62

63

66

62

63

62

63

66

8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29

62
62
62
62

63
63
63
63

62

63

66
66
66
66
66
66

62

63

68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67

62
62

63
63

66

62
62
62

63
63
63

66

62

63

66

62

63

66

67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68

67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67

' 66
' 66
'64
'63
' 66
»65
' 66
'63'
'63
'64
'65
'65

Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
Mar.

'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
'63
'65
'65

74
74
74
*66
65
*66

June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.

'65
' 65
' 65
'63
'64
'63

68
65
72
66
68

70
70

Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Jan.
Feb.
Jan .
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.

71
71
70
72
72
71 *66
72
72
71

70

72
72
*66
*66
72
71
72
72
*66
*66
*66
71 72
72

Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.

'64
' 64
'65
' 64
'64

*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66

Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.

'63
'65
' 64
' 64
'64
'64
'63
' 64
»64

*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74

Jan.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Sept.

'64
'64
'64
'64
'65
'65
'65
'65
' 64
'65

II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE

49 GNP in current dol larc
50 GNP in 1958 dollars
47. Industrial production
52 Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg constr
54 Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
*
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y

60
60
59

••

71
71
71
71

ML FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

29. New building permits, private housing
L
L
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
L
38 Index of net business formation
L
13 New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries , , . . L
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . . L
U
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. . L
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.
L
11 New capital appropriations mfg
L
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip ...
g
I l Corporate gross savings. .............
l
U
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-. U

t

1
1
1
1
12
12
1
1
1
1
22
1
1
1
1
1
1
18
20
22
22

••
58

60

8 25
8 25
8 25
8 25
8 24
8 24
9 34
8 25
8 25
8 25
9 30
9 32
9 34
9 34

*•

66

70

IV. INVENTORIES

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31 Change mfg and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods.
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .

L
L
L
Lg
Lg
L
L

14
U
14
18
14
18
14
14
14

60

8 27
8 26
8 27
9 30
8 27
9 30
8 27
8 27
8 27

62

63

66

69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67

70

V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS

23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale pr'ices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP, . .
16. Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg.
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .

L
L
C
U
Lg
tg
L
L
L

14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13

58
58
59
61
58

8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8

27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26

62
62
62

63
63
63

66
66

62

63

66

62
62

63
63

66

.•

67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68

70
70
70
70
70

L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.




73

SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Timing
classification

1

2

Appendixes

Tables

Charts
3

1

2

4

5

6

7

B

C

0

F

F

Page

G

Issue

Issue

Page

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT

U
85. Change in money supply
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
93 Free reserves
U
66. Consumer installment debt
Lg
113. Change consumer installment debt
U
U
112. Change in business loans
u
110. Total private borrowing

114
115
116
117
118
67.
14
15

Treasury bill r3te
Treasury bond yields
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields
Mortgage yields
Bank rates on short-term business loans . .
Liabilities of business failures
Large business failures

u
u
u
u
u

9

20
20
20
IB
20
20
20

61

g

**

9
9
9
9
9

32
32
32
30
33
32
32

9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8

33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26

62

69
69
69
67
69
69
68

63

62

.•

63

67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67

L

21
21
21
21
21
18
12
12

U
U
U
U

22
22
22
22

9
9
9
9

33
34
34
34

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32

67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67

Lg

61

62
62

63
63

66

'65
'65
'64
' 64
'64 73
' 64 73
'65 73

July
July
July

'64
' 64
' 64

July
July
July
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.

' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
'64
'63
'64

74
74
74
74
74

July
July
July
July
July

' 64
'64
' 64
'64
' 64

69
69
69
74

Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
July

'64
'64
'64
'65

73
73
73
72
70
70
70
66

Aug .
Aug.
Aug .
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.

' 65
'65
' 65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64

66
67
67
67
67
68
68

70
70

Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug .
July
July
Nov.

71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66

70

68
68
69
69

U
83 Federal cash receipts from public
U
82 Federal cash payments to public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
u
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . . u
u
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . u
u
92 Military contract awards in U S
u
99. New orders, defense products

73
74
66
70
71
71
72

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64

VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

86 Exports excluding military aid . .,
87. General imports
„
88. Merchandise trade balance
89 U S balance of payments
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

61

62

63
**

70
70

--

70
70
70

IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

121
122.
123
125.
126.
127.
128.

Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial

production OECD
production, United Kingdom
production Canada
production, West Germany
production France
production Italy
production Japan

u
u
u
u
u
u
u

23
23
23
23
23
23
23

68
68
68
68
68
68
68

35
35
35
35
35
35
35

70

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Dl. Average workweek
D5. Initial claims
D6 New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
D19. Stock prices
023. Industrial materials prices
034. Profits, mfg
035. Net sales, mfrs
036. New orders

1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter..

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
4-quarter. .

041. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month. .
6- month . .
047. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
048. Freight cartoadings
4-quarter. .
054. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month..
058. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month. .
061. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .

••

••

39
39
39
39
39
41
41
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41

•»

••

42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42

46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9

72
68
73
73
72
69
73
73

Mar.
Oct.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.

'65
'64
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65

43
43
43
43
43
45
45

55
55
48-9
48-9

72
69
72
73
69
70
70

Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.

' 65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64

44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45

50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3

72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69

Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.

'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
' 64

48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5

••

••

••

••

••

L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.


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Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. " M" indicates monthly series "Q* indicatts
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by **EOM" or "EOQ*. "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which a series is listed in the Finding Guide, Thus, "(M,ll)" indicates a monthly
series listed in group II. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were
included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.

30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).—Depart-

*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing {M,f),--Dep3rtment Of Labor,

ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

Bureau of Labor Statistics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV).-Chicago Purchasing

*2, Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).»Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).»Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials

(M,IV).-National ASSOCJa-

tion of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bu-

reau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,l).--De-

partment of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,III).—Department Of

Commerce, Bureau of the Census

*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present(M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bureau

of Labor Statistics

*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M,lll)."Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census

*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M,I).-Department Of Labor,

*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space

42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,I).--Department Of Labor, Bu-

(M,NI).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Bureau of Labor Statistics
reau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).-Departmentof Commerce, Bureau

*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M,I).-Department Of

Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,lll).-Na-

tional Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,Jll).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,I).-National Industrial Conference

Board
*47. Index of industrial production (M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll)."Department of Commerce, Office Of

*14. Current liabilities of business failures {M,VI).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities

of

$100,000 and over

of Business Economics
*50 Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics

(M,VI).--Dim

and Bradstreet, Inc..; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16i Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*51. Bonk debits,oll standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York{224 SMSA's)

(M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income {M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,II).--Department of Com-

17. Price per unit of lobor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).--Department of Commerce,

Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).--

Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,v).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV)*~

Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*21. Change

in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP

component) (Q,iv).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).—

merce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Soles of retail stores (M,II).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M,V).--

Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final soles (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,111).-Department Of Com-

merce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, tatal manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).—

Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23, Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,Ml).—De-

partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).—Department

of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer

(M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,III).—De-

partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonogriculturol plocements, all industries (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census




*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries(EOM,IV).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM,lv).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,Vl).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure
for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EQQ,Vl).--Board Of Governors Of

the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of lobor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in

1958 dollars) (Q,v).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division
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Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Con.
28 OTHER SELECTED U.S.

112. Net change in bank loons to businesses (M,Vl).~B08fd Of Governors

SERIES

81. Index of consumer prices (M,v).--Departfnent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of trie Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M,VHl)."Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal
adjustment by the Bureau of the Census
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,M,VI11).--Treasury Department, Bureau of
Accounts, and Executive Office of ttte President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal
adjustment by the Bureau of ttie Census
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,M,viit).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment
by the Bureau of the Census
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).~

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Boafd Of G0V$mOTS Of tftt Federal

Reserve System
114. Discount rate on new Issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M,Vt).~Board Of GovafflOfS Of

the Federal Reserve Systefii; no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,V1).-TreaSUTy Department, fW S&tSOI&l Kj-

justment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI).-FlrSt National City BSfik

of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20- bond overage {M, VI). -The Bflfld Buyer; IK) $635 003 1 id-

justment
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgage* (M,VI).-F«lefal HOtlSiftg Administration;

86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).»Departrneflt Of Commerce,

no seasonal adjustment

Bureau of the Census

7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

87. General imports, total (M,VH)."Departrnent of Commerce, Bureau of t|e Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M,VII).-Department of COflV

merce, Bureau of tfte Census

121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Europe-cm Coutttrtt*,lft(kx

of industrial production (M, IX). -Organization for Economic Cooperation afttf
Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M, IX). -Central Statistical OffiCS

89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balonce of payments (Q,VH).--Department Of

Commerce, Office of Business Economics

(London)
123. Conado,index of industrial product low (M,IX).-0<»in!ofl BltftBU Of SUtlStlC) (OtttWt)

90. Defense Department obligation *, procurement (M,Vllt).-Department of Defense, Fiscal

Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

125, West Germany, index of Industrial production (M,IX).-DeUtSCfM Bundesbank (f rank-

furt)
9). Defense Deportment obligations, total (M,Vlll).-Departfflent Of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

126, France, index of industrial production (M, IX). -Statistical Office (Par(S)

92. Military prime contract swards, U.S. business firms (M,VHt).~Department Of Defense,

127, Italy, index of irxk»str!<*l prwluctlon (M,IX).-Org8«i2ation for

Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau nf the Census
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,Vt),~B03fd Of GOV-

errwrs of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment

and
128. Japan, iitdex of Industrial production {M,lX).«IMM$try Of Iflt&mitlQFliiTfKli ami

Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment fey compiler awl Bureau of tfte Census

94. Index of construction contracts, total vdu* (M,lil).~F. W. Dodge Corporation

. . . United States, index of Industrial production (M, II). -See SgfieS 47.

95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q,VIII).-Department Of Coifl-

merce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers'unfilled orde r*, durable goods industries (EOM,HI).-Department Of Com*

merce, Bureau of the Census

DIFFUSION INDEXES

The "D" preceding 3 rwrot>ef indicates a diffusion infex. Olffu-sion Indexts and eorrosponding business cycle series bear tisane nunter &nd are obtained fmithe s&ute
sources. See sources atwve for Dl, D5, D6, Oil, D19, D23, 041, 047, D$4, aod Wl.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:

97. Backlog of capital appropriations,manufacturing (EOQ,lll).-NatlOna) Industrial Confer-

ence Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency)

D34. Profits, iMmrfoctvring, FMCB (Q).-Flrst MatloMl City Bank of NewYufk; MSMsonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion Indexes are swonally adjusted
by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

and com-

mercial bank time deposits (M,vi).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products (M,VNl).~Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

035. Net soles, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no $.ei$onal tdjust^iit
D36. New orders, do rob I*
justment

es (Q).«Dun and Brad street, Inc.; no seasonal ad-

110, Total funds raised by private rtonfinoncial borrowers in credit markets (Q,VI),—Board

of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
111. Gross retained earnings of nonflnanciol corporations (Q,III).-Board Of Governors Of the

Federal Reserve System




D48. Freight cor loodi tigs (fi).- Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
DS8. wholesale prices, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor , Bureau of tabor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census


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