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BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
January 1965
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Bureau of the Census



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U.S, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary

This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm — Computation of
business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Eugene L, Rossidivito — Specifications for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and
compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by
Geraldine Censky of the Statistical
Reports Division. Stuart I. Freeman
is responsible for publication design.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged.
The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this
report,

Subscription price is $6 a year ($1.50
additional for foreign mailing). Single
issues are 60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an
additional charge. For information
about domestic or foreign air mail
delivery, write to the Superintendent
of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to
U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any
U.S. Department of Commerce Field
Office,




BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician

PillPJIkCl
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis
and interpretation by specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to
their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the
inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle.
About 87 principal indicators and over 300 components are
included in preparing the report. The movements of the series are shown
against the background of the expansions and contractions of the general
business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be readily detected and
unusual cyclical developments spotted. The exact number of series included
for the total and important classes of series may vary from month to month
because of additions of new series and revisions in the composition of
indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports.
A complete list of the series and the sources of data is shown on the
back cover of this report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those
that do not appear to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
for indicators are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement
of the series for business cycle studies. Electronic computers are used
for many of the computations, thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of the month following the
month of data.




January 1965

New Features and Changes for This Issue
Data Bank of Business Cycle Indicators
BCD Technical Papers

iii
iv
iv

Introduction
Method of Presentation
:
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2

1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6

Table 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
Chart 1. Business Cycle Series Since 1948
Table 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series

Table
Chart
Table
Table

.

__.

3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods
2. Diffusion Indexes Since 1948
__-_
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
5. Directions of Change for Components of Selected Diffusion
Indexes

Series are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions (shaded areas
on charts) and expansions in general business activity.
Leading Series begin to fall before, Coincident Series fall
with, and Lagging Series fall after a contraction has begun.

8
10
24

38
39
42
46

CONTINUED




The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective

.

._

55

Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators

81

Appendix D.—Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series

82

Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes

83

A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect
the change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to'show
new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic
series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other series, changes
in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in this
section each month. Changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Twenty-two series have been revised using the new seasonal adjustment factors shown in appendix D, in accordance with our policy
of bringing seasonal factors up to date annually. These factors are
based on the X-9 and X-10 versions of the Census Method II seasonal
adjustment program. The table below shows the series number, the
program used, and the period of revision for each of the series.
Series
number

4
5
9
-LU • * • » • •

13
14
15
17
IB ( ) .
Q.
30
37

Program

X-9
X-9
X-9
X-10
X-9
X-10
X-10
X-9
X-9
X-9
X-9

Data
revised
back to —

Series
number

Jan. 1 6 .55
9 4
Jan. 1962 62
Nov. 1963 81
Dec. 1963 OtC. * • « • » *
Jan. 1 6
9 4 83
Jan . 1964 84.
Dec. 1963 90
Jan . 1963 91.
4th Q !61 92
Jan . 1962 112.
Jan . 1962 128

Program

X-9
X-9
X-9
X-9
X-9
X-9
X-10
X-10
X-10
X-9
X-9

Data
revised
back to —

Dec. 1963
Jan 1963
Jan. 1 6
9 4
Jan. 1 6
9 4
Jan . 1 6
9 4
Jan 1 6
9 4
Jan. 1962
Jan 1 6
9 2
Jan. 1963
Jan 1 6
9 3
Jan 1 6
9 4

;

2. Seasonal factors for series specially adjusted for this report
are shown for the period May 1 6 to June 1965 in appendix D.
9 4

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3- Series 110 and 111 (total private borrowing and corporate
gross savings, respectively) have been revised by the source agency
because of revisions in the series components. These changes
affect the period from the first quarter 1962 to date.

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4. The diffusion indexes for average workweek (series Dl) and
nonagricultural employment, manufacturing (D4l) have been revised in
chart 2 for the period 1948 to I960 to reflect new seasonal adjustments of the series components by the source agency. Revised indexes
for the period since I960 were shown in the December issue.
5. A paper, "The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective," by
Julius Shiskin, is included in this report. This paper was presented at the 12th Annual Conference on the Economic Outlook sponsored by the University of Michigan (November 19, 1964)• The
cyclical comparisons charts usually shown monthly in BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS have been omitted from this issue since many of them
are included in the above-mentioned paper. They will be reinstated
in the February issue.
6. A new month-color identification begins with this issue of
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. The color of the cover stock will
change each month of,a quarter. For example, the January, April,
July, and October covers will be printed on white stock; the February, May, August, and November covers, on blue; and the March,
June, September, and December covers, on gray stock.
The February issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled for
release on February 24.




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Dcrfa Bonk of Bus/ness Cycle

Indicators

A punch card file containing data for the business cycle indicators included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in table 4 and the component series (listed in table 5)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the
Bureau of the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 indicators, the 30 diffusion
indexes, and 145 of the component series are available at cost, (The other series
can be obtained only from the sponsoring agencies.) The cost for these cards
ranges from $58 for 500 cards to $137 for 5,000 cards. One card is required
per series year. Thus, for the 85 principal indicators, from 1948 to date, the cost
would be about $70. For these principal indicators plus the 30 diffusion indexes
and 145 component series, the cost would be about $135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current.
However, the figures for the principal indicators and diffusion indexes required for
this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.

BCD Technical Papers
To aid users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS, technical papers dealing
with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this
report from time to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available,
free of charge. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1.—Summary Description of the X-9 and X-JO Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in
the September 1963 issue). A new version of this program is scheduled
to be released later this year. Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators—The Known and the Unknown by Julius
Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue).
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published
in May 1964 issue).
No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964
issue).
No. 5,—Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue).
No. 6.—The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective by Julius Shiskin
(published in January 1965 issue).

Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic
Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C, 20233.

Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.

tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below), One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on,
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.

The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of commitments that take a
long time to consummate, and holdings of inventories
and of debts.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing,
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented for a broad picture of
international economy.

Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac-

Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:




Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional

U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 to 8).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.

The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a. matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.

Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this report,
if they are available. However, for the special purposes
of business cycle studies, a number of series that are
not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are
shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed
by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using
Census Method II. The adjustment factors are shown in



appendix D, except for those series which are the sums
of seasonally adjusted components, and those series
which are based on unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will
be substituted whenever they are published.
Adjustments, for changes in average climatic conditions and institutional arrangements during the year are
also made by Census Method II. In addition, series
.such as new building permits are adjusted for variations
in the number of trading or working days and series
such as retail sales of apparel are adjusted for variable
holidays (for example, Easter),
Studies of the effect of unusual weather upon some
series have also been started. It is important to note,
however, that present methods adjust for average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this
average; that is, present methods are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal weather at any time
of the year. For this reason, many seasonally adjusted
'series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in
months when the weather is unusually bad and high
in months when the weather is unusually good. While
it eventually may be possible, Census methods do not at
present make any adjustments for such variations.

MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The differences between moving averages of the
period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by
the same MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3month spans. MCD moving averages all have about the
same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular series, such as business
failures and Federal cash payments, will show their
cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally
adjusted data for such smooth series as industrial production and personal income.

MCD moving averages are shown in chart I for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 15-term Spencer curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1

IF
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented— timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).




3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks,
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business cycle
indicators are scanned each month. During a business
cycle expansion, the date of the high value for each
series is recorded. (For inverted series—that is, series
with negative conformity to the business cycle—dates
of low values are taken.) If the values for 2 or more
months are equal, the latest date is taken as the high
month. In selecting these values, erratic values may
be disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to
identify an erratic value, particularly for the current
month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.

Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
group, the percent of the series which has risen over
given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead
the turning points of the aggregate and they measure
how widespread a business change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all components rising) and
zero (all components falling). Widespread increases
are often associated with rapid growth in aggregate

activity, and widespread declines with share reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1 -month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.

Direction-of-Change Table
The direction-of-change table (table 5) shows directions of change (" + " for rising, "o" for unchanged,



and "—" for falling) in the components used for the
diffusion indexes. This table provides a convenient
view of changing business conditions and is helpful
in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went
up, which went down, and how long such movements
have persisted. The table also helps to show how
a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the
economy to another.
Directions of change for most diffusion index components are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either
6- or 9-month spans.

In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the indicator series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of its expansion) are compared with its preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference trough
dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and
by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or
falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of
the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the
level at the current month. For each earlier expan-

sion, data for a like period (same number of months
from the trough of its expansion) are compared with
the level at its trough. The same situation exists here
as for the comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier
expansions that were shorter than the current one,
the comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.

Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical
time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1 and 2)

Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
from reference peak dates. These comparisons will
be made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same for
all series), comparisons are made on the basis of
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
For example, the specific peak for the index of industrial production is January 1960 (corresponding
to the May 1960 reference peak); the specific peak
for stock prices is July 1959. (See appendix B.)
Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 8. For
earlier expansions, these comparisons differ from those
shown for reference cycles in that they show only the
period up to the next specific peak date and do not
include any part of the contraction that followed. For
some series, therefore, the earlier comparisons cover
fewer months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the initial date covered by the series
used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to
be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have
undergone change in definition, coverage, or estimation
procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this sort
are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit).



These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons (chart 3)
This chart compares the performance of selected indicators during the current expansion with their performance 'during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is
disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the
strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions,
the reference trough (see part A) and specific trough
(see part B). Thus, these comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to
cyclical movements during the expansions of previous
cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Part A
compares the pattern of the current reference cycle (the
cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements
over the corresponding phases of previous reference
cycles. Part B compares the pattern of the current
specific cycle (the cycle for a particular series) with the
movements over the corresponding phases of previous
specific cycles in that series. In both parts, the trough
dates are alined. In part A, the levels of the preceding
peaks are also alined while in part B, the levels of the
preceding troughs are alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*)

(JuW|(Apr.)

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("5"=May)

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (e.g., data not available,
change in series definition, etc.).

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("lll"=third quarter)

See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.

Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.

Solid line with plotting points in- ,
dicates quarterly data,
V
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2l/2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.

Solid line indicates monthly diffusion index data for 6- or 9-month
intervals.
Broken line indicates monthly diffusion index data for 1-month intervals.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly diffusion index
data for various intervals.




Scale shows percent of diffusion
index components rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
computing the diffusion indexes.
("6"=June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the diffusion indexes,
("ir=second quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly diffusion index
data for various intervals. This line
is also used to indicate anticipated
quarterly diffusion index data.




Section ONE

istorical charts and tables

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New invesfmenf comm/fmenfs
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT

INDICATORS

Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS ||
|
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supplyf and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS

Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries

BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1965

bed

CHANGES OVER 4 LASTEST MONTHS

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Sept.
1964

Oct.
1964

Percent change2

Nov.
1964

Dec.
1964

Average
change,
195319633

Sept.
to
Oct.
1964

Oct.
to
Nov.
1964

Nov.
to
Dec.
1964

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3.
4,
5.

Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. placements, all industries
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Temporary layoff, all industries
Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance

6. New orders, durable goods indus
24, New orders, mach. and equip, indus
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.^
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29.
12.
13.
14.

New bldg. permits, private housing
Net change, number of businesses*, 5
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures

15. Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes4
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.4
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries4

Hours,...
Per lOOempl....
Thous
Per lOOempl....
Thous
do....

Bil. dol.
do
Mil. sq.ft.
floor space
Bil. dol
......do

40.5
r4.0
r519
rl.7
92

40.9
P3.9
r549
pl.5
r89

p4l.l
(NA)
518
(NA)
109

0.5
4.8
1.8
9.4
17.8

0.0
+5.3
+0.6
-13.3
+24.0

+1.0
-2.5
+5.8
+11.8
+3.3

+0.5
(NA)
-5.6
(NA)
-22.5

r245

r249

r262

251

5.3

-1.6

-5.2

+4.2

19.91
3.69

r!9.62
r3.79

r!9.42
r3.90

p20.31
P3.87

3.8
4.5

-1.5
+2.7

-1.0
+2.9

+4.6
-0.8

r51.41
r4.51

r53.75
r4.56

r49.6l
P4.93
(NA)

9.7
4.9
11.4

+4.6
+1.1

-7.7
+8.1
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

rl,559
107.6

pi, 502
plOl.8

-0.7
+17.4

-9.9
+3.2
(NA)
+3.7
-13.3

+7.0
-8.3

(NA)
126.49

7.3
3.8
2
2.7
16.9

+8.8
-0.2

rl6,493
r97.98

rl,404
rlll.O
(NA)
17,103
r l . 00
il

(NA)
-14.0

42

42

40

13.1

0.0

0.0

+4.8

rl02.6

(NA)
r!03.4
(NA)

p!04.5

6.3
0.7
6.8

Ann. rate,
1,433
thous
107.8
1957-59=100....
Thous
rl6,605
Number
rll8.59
Mil. dol
42
No. per week . . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
r!03.0
1957-59-100
Cents

Percent

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
1941-43=10 ....
21. Change in business inventories, all industries4, 5 .. Ann. rate,
bil. dol
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade
5
inventories
do
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of
materials and supplies^
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days
or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industriesS
23. Industrial materials prices*

40.5
3.8
r5l6
1.5
r!21

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
83.41

84.85

85.44

-6.4

pf6.0

2.6

+1.1

(NA)

5.1

83.96

(NA)
+0.8
(NA)

+1.7

+0.7

-1.7

+3.2

2.5

4-7.3

rO.O

pfB.l

(NA)

3.5

-7.3

+8.1

(NA)

+2.6

r+4.3

p+2.5

(NA)

1.5

+1.7

-1.8

(NA)

60

r58

r60

58

6.8

-3.3

+3.4

-3.3

do

61

60

64

65

5.8

-1.6

+6.7

+1.6

.do

74

72

70

66

7.7

-2.7

-2.8

-5.7

Percent

Bil. dol
1957-59=100.,..

+0.77
108.2

+1.00
112.0

r+0.19
113.2

P+-0.20
112.5

0.49
1.3

+0.23
+3.5

-0.81
+1.1

+0.01
-0.6

58,458
65,534
5.2
2.9
3.4

r 58, 382
65,580
5.2
2.8
3.4

r58,871
66,029
5.0
2.5
3.4

P59,097
66,322
4.9
2.7
3.6

0.3
0.4
4.2
6.0
4.8

-0.1
+0.1
0.0
+3.4
0.0

+0.8
+0.7
+3.8
+10.7
0.0

+0.4
+0.4
+2.0
-8.0
-5.9

126
134.0

127
r!31.4

r!34
r!34.8

p!37
P137.0

3.1
1.1

+0.8
-1.9

+5.5
+2.6

+2.2
+1.6

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42.
43.
40.
45.

Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, married males
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. , State

46. Help-wanted advertising
47. Industrial production
50. GNP in 1954 dollars 4
49. GNP in current dollars4
57. Final sales4
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Thous.

do
Percent
do . .
do
1957-59=100....
do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do

do
Bank debits outside NYC
2,424.8
do
Personal income
497.9
129.2
Labor income in mining, mfg. constr
. ...do.. .
Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
22,254
Wholesale prices, except farm products and foods. . . 1957-59=100.... rl01.3




P521.5
P633.5
p627.5
2,454.0
498.7
127.7
r21,383
rl01.5

2,470.2 p2,495.8
P505.7
r502.3
r!30.4
P131.8
r21,631 p22,808
101.6
pl01.7

1.3
1.5
1.3
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.2

+0.4
+0.8
+0.3
+1.2
+0.2
-1.2
-3.9
+0.2

+0.7
+0.7
+2.1
+1.2
+0.1

+1.0
+0.7
+1.1
+5.4
+0.1

bed

TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued

B<asic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Sept.
1964

Unit of
measure

Oct.
•1964

r98.2

r98.6

Percent change2

Dec.
1964

Nov.
1964

Average
change,
195319633

Sept.
to
Oct.
1964

Oct.
to
Nov.
1964

Nov.
to
Dec.
1964

+o 4

+2.3
-0 6

-1 0

+1.3

(NA)
+0.8

(NA)

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment4
62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg.
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP4
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of finished
goods
66. Consumer instal Iment debt
67 Bank rates on short-term business loans* 4

Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59-100 ....
do
Bil. dol. .......

a46 . 70
r98 0

p97 o

(NA)

3.2
0 6
0 9
0.5

r6l.8

p62.3

(NA)

21.6

do
Mil. dol
Percent

61.0

21 8
57 431

p21 9
57 732
5 00

(NA)
(NA)

0 8
0 8
2 3

+0 9
+0 7

rl!7 8
rl!2 8

rl 0
il

135.5
115 7
-19 8

5 7

-4 0
-0 8
+4 0

57 021

+0 5
+0 5
+0 4

(NA)

-5 8
?

-*-?2 1
-i-~l ?

+8 1

oi i

(NA)

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES

83.
84.
95.
90.

Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
Federal cash receipts from public
5
do
Federal cash surplus or deficit
4 5
do
Balance, Federal income and product account * ...
Mil. dol
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement

91.
92.
99.
93.
85.

Defense Dept. obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*5
Change in money supply5

82. Federal cash payments to public

r!22 7

r"l ~n 7
r-9 0

rl 14,1

113.
114
115
116
117

Change, consumer installment debt5
Treasury bill rate*
Treasury bond yields*
Corporate bond yields* ....
Municipal bond yields*

118
86
87.
88
89

Mortgage yields*
Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance5
U S balance of payments4* 5.

do
Mil dol
do
.do
do

Consumer prices
Construction contracts value . .
Unfilled orders dur. goods indus
Backlog of capital appro. , mfg ®

1957-59-100 ....
do
Bil. dol
do

Il Corporate gross savings4
l
112. Change, business loans5

81
94
96
97

3

r+3 3
(NA)

do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
do
Ann. rate,
mil. dol
.do
Ann. rate,
bil dol
do
Percent
do
do
do

98 Change in money supply and time deposits5
110. Total private borrowing4

•r 5 0

m

r4 405
r2 191
1.98

+90

+6.12
+8.16

r889

1,089

(NA)

r3 773
rl( 745

(MA)
(NA)

+103

4,228
2 008
rl.78
-34

+4.56
+8.64

+3.84
+10 . 68

r2.41

pi. 57
p+171

pf2.28
pf7.20

(•NA)

'r+4.28
+6.16
3.53
4.16
4.49
3.23
5.46

2,271.2
1,557.5
+713.7

r+1.43
+4.92
3.58
4.16
4.49
3.25
5.45

2,134.3
1,550.7
+583.6

r+0.32
+3.61
3,62
4.12
4.47
3.18
5-45

2,184.1
1,697.7
+486/4

+8.62
(NA)
3.86
4.14
4.47
3.13
5.45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

r!08 . 4

r!08 . 6

136
53.14

143
r53.32

-22 1

+22.5

(NA)

+12.1
+15.1
-26.1
-137

(NA)
(NA)

104 2

-14 3
-20 4
+21.7
+13

-11.8
+205

2.78
2.52

-1.56
+0.48

-0.72
+2.04

-1.56
-3.48

15 1
26.2
23.0

(NA)
(NA)

1.22
0.85

7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6
0.58

4.6
3.6
59.0

-2.85
-1.24
+1.4
0.0
0.0

+0.6
-0.2
-6.0
-0.4
-130.1

286
(NA)
(NA)

P53.52
(NA)

4-1

(NA)

4.3

(NA)

r!08.3
131
52.14
14.95

5 6
2 5
26 9

11.6

(NA)

-

*i /,

0.2
7.0
1.5
6.6

-1.11
-1.31
+1.1
-1.0
-0.4
-2.2
0.0

+2.3
+9.5
-97.2

+8.30
(NA)
+6.6
+0.5

0.0
-1.6

0.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

+0.1
+3.8
+1.9

+0.2
+5.1
+0.3

(NA)
(NA)
+0.4
(NA)

r= revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available.
iSeries are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in
table 2.
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business fallsare inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g.,
if the rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as+0.6. See footnote 5 for other "change"qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of
measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.




BASIC DATA

JANUARY

1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)

10



(July)
J

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
L

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6

bed

CHART

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

25
20

15
10
5

4

60
50
40
30

5

1

4 "*^
3

6
5
4 2
3 "
2
2.0
1.52

1
1.0

160
120 3
1001
80

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6.



11

CHART

BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
-1

(July) (Aug.)
_P

L

(July) (Apr.)
_P

(May) (Feb.)

eid scale. ~1ffC) "moving ovg.-6pfeVm)

30 3

til uJiili 11 m i L i m I i 11 ii -i 11 i J ii liu 11111 mil] 1111111111311 LM M 11 iji 11 u 1 n 11 u u iin 111 uulm MiuJi iJiiuJi uyJLLHJi u$i&

12



Mi^^KSi^MS^^^^^K^6
See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page

bed

CHART

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (Apr,)

T

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

ice foLuniilJahoi-xuJjfnfg. ^

1148

1S49

I95Q

1951

190

"How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6



1153

}S$4

105? 115*

\m 'tMl'.tWl t$82

1363

1964

1965

\m
13

BASIC DATA

JANUARY

1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
(Nov.)
J

(Oct.)

14



t jreporj ng higher inveitories

1001
<^>
80

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6.

bed

CHART

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
P

(July) (Aug.)

(Oct.)
T

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

65
f
:60 ^
*%
55

70
42. Total honqgr; emp oyment

65 ^
-^j
60 1
55

2
3

5
6

3
4
6
7
160
140
120

100

60

1948

\949 1150

1151

1*52 • 11*3

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6.




1854 1S5S . 1116< ItSI -1951

1I5S . KUO

1981

1862 1963

1964

II6S

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued

B

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued




(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(Jul») (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

250

See "Haw to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6

bed

CHART

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (FeU.)
P
T
2.8
2.6
2.4

2.0 :
1.8
1.6
550
500

400
350
140
130
120 Z

no I
100

90
24
22
20 ^
-S3

18 2
16
14

110

1002
*n ^
90 *»

80

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6.




17

JANUARY 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

T

60
50
40 2
-S?
co

30

8

20
110
105 ^
100 •£
QE
30

"TO
o

90
85
110

1053
100-*
95
90

8

70
60 2
50 2
40
25 ^
20 |
Co

15

70
60
50
40
30

tiW^ju^^

•^kjra".' "iuttiFiFj IAS* '•':• (siiuft'-VM


18


^
See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2 t " page 6

c,
i
2
"»

bed

CHART
JANUARY 1965

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6.




19

BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P

85. JCkqngeJitL mmey suppjy _
MCp moving avg. —6 term

98. Change in money supply ar

20



I i i ' M I ' II Til i l l i i i TT 1 ' T i l i 1 I i I I [ I I

M!"' ' !

-UlullllU iUiJ4AU4JHwl Ull-UUlii iUU 11 UilUUil-W-Uyiu4i4-ij||4iiilW^'MUWiU^-U^'UUU-lUJvU'LU

1

i9 1

i^^^.--.'ii^^:^'-^tef ^^' ^':- * • '•^••'' "*?"
See "Haw to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6

bed

CHART

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)

(July) (Aug.)

(J»W (Apr.)
JL

JL

Digitized See FRASER Charts 1 and 2," page 6
for "How to Read


(May) (Feb.)

JP

L_

3

I

115. Treasury bdncl yields !(perc<

1953

1954 1955 t*5« '1957

1958 1959 1980 1961 1982 1983 1964 1%5

1966
21

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T


22


(July) (Aug.)
P

T

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6

bed

CHART
JANUARY

BASIC DATA

1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES SINCE 1948—Continued
International Comparisons
(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
JL

60

JLJlJuJ II 1 1 ' 1111 ItliliJjlLjAjuklilllllilililili

1MI

Jf4l

1950 1951

1952 19§3

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6.




1914

195S

1951

1W7

I9N

1«W

UW

1961 1962 1963

ISP
23

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Average
workweek,
Year and month production
workers ,
manufacturing
(Hours )

2. Accession 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manu- cultural
rate, manuplacements,
facturing
facturing
all industries
(Per 100
employees )

1961

July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
•
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

40 0
40.1
39.6
40 3
40 6

4.0

/O 3

L 1

4.2
3.7
4 3
4 3

(Thous.)
Revised3
493
512
507

(Per 100
employees )

4. Persons
on temporary
layoff, all
industries x

5. Average
weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance2
(Thous . )
Revised3
348
316
329

S2A

2.2
1 Q

(Thous.)
Revised3
101
136
127
113

540
SSI

19
2 0

IIS
1 27

30 /
30 S
?QA

1.8
1.9
17
1.8

135
[n]88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
1 S2
121

2 2
19

6. New orders, durable goods
industries

24. New orders, machinery and
equipment
industries

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1 A 7/
17 ?A

3 03
3 07
2.88
2 91
2 98
? QA

301
295
287
283
301
304
303
305
300
304
299
310

17.70
17.70
17 15
17.02
17 22
16 65
16.91
16 59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33

3.15
3.30
2 97
3.31
3 10
3.02
3.07
2 94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07

310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301

18 47
18 23

3 2^
3 2T

15
16
15
16

92
12
97
26

40.1
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.4
40.3

(514.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8

557
557
569
569
IJHJ586
561
557
553
551
557
565
543

40 5
40 3
40 4
40.1
40 4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40 5
40.6
40 5
40 7

3 8
38
3 8
4 0
3 9
3 9
3.9
3.8
3 8
3 9
3 7
4 0

552
554
555
557

40 2
40 7
40 6
40 7
40 6
40 6
40 6
40 8
40 .5
40.5
40.9

38
4 0

CQ/

1

0

1 1A

00 1

-i Q

cop

"I £

97O

/
3
?
L
/
4

coo

-i Q ?u
ly. epj

T

IPS
Qft

97*7

CT q
SPA
con

1 7
1 o

122

9AS
9A9

121

9S7

SI A

1

118
91
121
92
89
109

? An

SO?

1 A
2 0
mil y

[H]p41.1

0
Q
£
1
o
0

3 8
r4.0
P3.9
(NA)

2 0
2 0
2.1
2 3

1.9
2.1
2.0
1.9
"1 9

18
18

s/A

1 Q
1 Q

S/S

18

541
543
553
575
533
525

1 Q
2 0
1 Q

COT

1 07
138
QS
Q?

18
18

1 31
1 30
108
1 3S
1 "V

1 7

Q7

CJ

c

S1Q
c/q

rl 7
nl S

en a

(NA)

rsi?y /

oy c
^A?
o/q
9A9
o en
01

1 A 7&

Q 90

IQ n/
18 28
1ft f)A

3
Q
•7
3
3

3S
y o
pq
"31
31

n fl p y

•3

/O

1 A 7/
17 Aft

1A A?
-i d -i -i
1 7 q7

q /}
97
3 .4 ^

iy. ry i
^4

Ao
3 .O^

iv.^o

0
/ /
J.4o
1 £1
J.ol

TO

OA

on

yA

iy.^4
TO

Q )

on n9
fjrio-i oc

^ An

o /n
^.4-L

ful "3

OQ
1HJ3.V3

QO
3 ,y<
r r
i
3 . ?f 7

.n

Ty
I? • ^4

3ryrt

T Q Ql

AQ
3 .ov
_,q OQ
rj. ?y
•3 r\n
r^.yo

-1 Q

iv .yi
•nl Q

AO

•i Q y o
riy.42
p20 . 31

p3.87

4 O£r7

<D/

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by .[HJ. ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14,
*.
15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA», not available.
1
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series.
Prior to April 1962, the
3
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
3
4
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,/ page iii.
Week ended January 9.

24



bed

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Construc- 10. Contracts and
tion contracts , com- orders ,
Year and month mercial and
plant and
industrial
equipment
buildings

1961

July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April. .
May
June
July
August
September.
October . . . .November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
Revised1
36 57
39 32
38 73
33 88
41 6l
4-1 69

(Bil. dol.)

11. Newly approved capital appropriations , 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)

7. New private nonf arm
dwelling
units
started

29. New private housing
units authorized by local
building permits

(Ann. rate,
thous . )

(1957-59=100)

12. Net
change in
business
population,
operating
businesses

(Thous.)

Revised1
3
3
3
3
3

57
66
40
48
66

1 305
2 85

1 2S2
1 A53
1 381

2 62

1 TIQ
1 121

1 SO

38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16
4.0.56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89

3.71
3.98
3.71
3.96
3 76
3.66
3.72
3 61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99

44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45-43

3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4 56

51.07
51.05
48.41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
£'53.75
49.61

4.38
4.14
4.11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
I3p4.93

(NA)

(NA)

2 86
2 56
3 04

3.25

2.68
3.35
4.07
3.93

4.01
4.88
05 41

(NA)

98
101
100
104
101

9
9
2
2
8

1,489
1 501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
1,287
1,418
1,551
1,656
1,651
1,558
1,584
1,454
1,712
131,824
1,544
1,524

111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119 3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123 7

1,688
1,613
1,638
1,501
1,507
1,585
1,483
1 408
1,433
rl,559

117.6
(Mjl23 9
121.5
112.9
112.1
115.2
109 6
113 0
107 8
107 6
rill 0
plOl 8

rl , 404
pi , 502

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures

(Number)

(Mil. dol.)

Revised1
"I 5 /Q2
-*-Q
-i-l 1

QQ 0

103 8
109 1
104 0
111.9
103 8
106 1
108.7
107 1
109 1
107.2
113.0
112.0

1,392
1,253
1,460

13. New
business
incorporations

+11
+12
+11
+11

+11
+11

+13
+12

+16

277
/O?
CHS
"1 /Q
&£1

Q/ /7
126 12

15 599
15,758
15,670
15,372
15 245
14,947
15,171
15 056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985

101 53
86.03
77.40
107.15
89.80
93.15
107.98
121 85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61

14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867

146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
[352.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17

16,250
16 018

91.69
119 29
110 67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126 . 49

1 *i
15
16
1A
1 *>

15 992

[3+17
+16

(NA)

Revised1
80 15

16,180
15 917
15,919
15 979
16 074
16,605
16 493
[M]r7,103
' (NA)

72 28
1 1 Q cn
71 &1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement, unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by Q3 ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14,
*.
15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA11, not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
15, Business
16. Corporate
failures with profits after
Year and month liabilities of taxes
$100,000 and
over

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

(Number per
week)
Revised1
43
36
39
42
39
38
37
LE132
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
49
43

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

22.0
24.5

24 5
24 9

25.0
25.7

25.5

42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40

26.6
26.7
28.3

31.2
31.9
[n]32.0
(NA)

17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, manufacturing

18. Profits
(before taxes)
per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations

22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
indus.

(1957-59=100)
Revised1
101.4
102.0
101.6
101.5
101.7
102 3

(Cents)
Revised1

(Percent)

' 101 . 3
101 7
101 8
100 9
101 1
100 4
100.7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5
100.6
100.7
101.2
101,3
101.7
103.2
102.2
101.5
101.6
102.2
101.9
102.2
103.2
103 2
102.7
103 7
103.5
103.5
103.4
103.6
103.0
102.6
103.4
Ej:pl04.5

7.9

92

81

91

8.1

9.1

81

9.1

8.1

9.1

8.5

9.4

8.6

9.3

8.8

9.8

9.0

10 4

8.9

65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71 74

9.3

84

(1941-43=10)

8 5

8.5

19. Stock
21. Change in
business inprices, 500
common stocks* ventories after
valuation adjustment, all
indus.

[TTjio 5

69 07
70 22
70 29
68 05
62 99
55 63
56.97
58.52
58 00
56.17
60.04
62.64

65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74 17
76 45
77 1Q
78 80

(Ann. rate.
Ml. dol.)

+3.7
+5.6

[EJ+6 9

+6 I
+5.1
+3.4

+3.6
+3.6
+4.?
+6.4

4-2

r

->

7Q Q/

[Hj9.0

10 4

(NA)

(NA)

80 72

80
83
82
83
84
[±85
83
3

24
22
00
41
85
44
96

+3 7
-+-? 8

p-t-6 0

As 7A

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by PH! • the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14,
*.
15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.


26


"Average for January 12, 13, and 14.

bed

JANUARY

BASIC DATA

1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
31. Change in
book value,
Year and month manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total

20. Change in
book value,
mfrs . ' Inventories of materials and
supplies

37. Purchased
materials ,
percent reporting higher
inventories

26. Production
matls . , percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer*

32. Vendor
performance,
percent reporting slower
deliveries*

25. Change in
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries

23. Industrial
materials
prices*

(Ann. rate.
Ml. dol.)

(Ann. rate.
Ml. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

+2 0
+3.1
+4.0
+1.9
+7.0
+6 2

+0.8
+2 9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3
[Hj+6 6

(Percent
reporting)
Revised1
46
54
57
56
52
55

56
55
57
59
59
54

49
52
55
55
51
*n

+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0

37
42
01
25
41
65

101 7
102 9
102 9
102 3
98 9
101 0

+6.0
+ 5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+ 5.1

+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7

60
59
58
54
51
47
44
45
43
46
50
49

57
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51

56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48

+0.63
+0 62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91

102.9
100 6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95-4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8

+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4-6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
^]+9.6
+7.2

+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7

47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43

50
55
54
53
52
' 57
54
55
56
53
54
55

50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46

+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40

95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7

+3.5
0.0
+3.7
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
+0.2
+1.0
+7.3
rO.O
pn-8.1

-1.9

42

-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6

50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
IE 60
58

53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
5165

55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65

+0.40
+0 57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
[Sj+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
r+0.19
p+0.20

98.5
98 5
98 9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
Q±113.2
112.5

1961
July

August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
Aoril
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
"
June

(NA)

+1.3
+2.6
r+4.3
p+2.5
(NA)

[H;,74
72
70

66

2

110 5

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by JH] • the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14,
*.
15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




3

Average for January 12, 13, and 14-

27

TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41. Employees
in nonagricultural esYear and month tablishments

(Xhous.)

42. Total non- 43. Unemployagricultural
ment rate,
total1
employment,
labor force
survey1

(Thous . )

(Percent)

40. Unemploy- 45. Average
ment rate,
weekly insured
married males ^ unemployment
rate, State
programs2

(Percent)

(Percent)

46. Helpwanted advertising in
newspapers

47. Industrial
production

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

54,061
54,206
54,220
54,330
54,597
54,723

61,259
51,274
61,299
61 , 463
61,896
61 , 747

6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0

4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.9

5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8

94
98
98
107
110
110

111.5
112.9
111.6
113.4
114.9
115.8

54,695
55,003
55,162
55,411
5 5 , 502
55,565
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874
55 881

61,899
62,179
62,253
62,247
62 663
62 752
62,620
63 021
63,039
63,007
62 870
63 240

5.8
5 5
5.5
5.6
5 5
5 5
5.4
5 7
5.6
5.4
5 8
5 5

3.8
3 3
3 6
38
3 5
3 7
3 5
3 6
3 5
3 5
3 6
3 s

4.7
4 5
4 4
3 9
3 8
4 0
4 2
4 4
4 4
4.5
/ A

114
115
115
112

115.0
116 4
117 5
118 0
118 2
118 1
119 0
119 0
119 7
119 1
119 8

55,900
56,044
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57 , 070
57,101
57,291

63,090
63,227
63 , 478
63,770
63 , 690
63,843
64,092
64,069
64,167
64,128
64,319
64,315

5.7
5.9
5.7
5 7
5-9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5

3.7
3 7
3 5
3 3
3 3
3.2
3 2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3

4 8
4 6
4 4
/ 2
4 2
4.1
41
4.1

57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,104
58,256
58,301
58,458
r 58, 382
r 58, 871
[H]p59,097

64,631
65,035
65,207
65,811
65,889
65,549
65,706
65,678
65,534
65,580
66,029
IEJ66,322

5.6
5.4
5-4
5.4
5.1
5.3
4.9
5 1
5.2
5.2
5.0
[H] 4 9

3.2
3.0
2 9
2 9
2 6

4 3
4.0
3 8
3 8
3 6
3.6
3 6
3 5
3 4
3 4

/ 7

4.0
4 0
4.1
4.3

2a

2 7

2 6
2.9
2 8
OH2 5
2 7

FTTH /

3 6
3

109
110
108
107
107
107
el07

e!07
e!09
e!08
109

105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123

126
127
rl 3/
Thlnl 37

1 "I Q /

119
120
121
122
124
125
125

8
6
9
7
4
6
6

125 4
125.7

126 1
126 1
127.0
127 7
128 2

129 o

130 5

m

q

131 6
T 32 Q
1 33 A
13/0
rl 31 /
rl '3/ 8
fTIi-nl ^7 0

3 5

NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( * . Current high values are indicated by'QD ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14,
•)
15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete
titles and-sources are shown on the back cover.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
•"•Beginning with April 1962, the 1 6 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the 1950
90
2
Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by the source agency.
3
Week ended January 2.


28


bed

BASIC DATA
JANUARY

TABLE

1965

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
50. Gross
49. Gross
national
national
product in
Year and month product in
1954 dollars current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate.
bil. dol.)

57. Final
sales (series
49 minus
series 21)

51. Bank
debits outside NYC,
343 centers

52. Personal 53. Labor
54. Sales of
income
income in
retail
mining,
stores
manufacturing, and
construction

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

450,6

522.4

518.7

462.5

536.9

531.4

469.1

545.5

538.7

475.1

553.4

547.3

478.3

559.0

554.0

483.0

566.6

561.2

485.4

571.8

568.2

487.9

577.4

573.7

494.8

587.2

583.0

502.0

599.0

592.6

508.0

608.8

606.4

513.5

618.6

614.9

519.6

628.4

625.7

[Hjp521.5

[EDp633.5

|Hjp627 5

1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9

420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5

2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9

431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
/.V..1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0

2,148.0
2,085.5
2,095.6
2,198.1
2,150.7
2,105.4
2,276.8
2,189.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,246.9
2,320.5

454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1

2,354.9
2,239.6
2 , 322 . 3
2,451.1
2,312.8
2,328.7
2 , 430 . 5
2,372.6
2,424.8
2,454.0
2 , 470 . 2
Eip2,495.8

479.4
480.5
482.9
486.6
487.8
489.3
491.4
494.9
497.9
498.7
r502 . 3
[n]p505.7

(1957-59=100)

18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879

Revised 1
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9

115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0

18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253

100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7

117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8
120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1

20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019

100.5
100.5
100.5
100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.1

122.7
124.2
124.6
125.9
125.8
126.4
126.9
127.9
129.2
127.7
r!30.4
Epl31.8

21,000
21,533
21,223
21 , 392
21,777
21,773
21,935
22,266
22,254
r21,383
r21,631
[n]p22,808

1961 -

July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March.
April
May. ............
June
July. ... .....
August
September .......
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August , ... j .....
September
October .........
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

55. Wholesale
prices except
farm products
and foods

108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
111.7

112.1
112.0
113.0
114.2
115.9

101.1
101.2

101.2
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
•(H]pl01.7
3

101.6

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by [EL ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14,
*.
15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue, page iii.
'Week ended January 12.




29

TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures,
Year and month new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1961

July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September .......
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June ...... ....
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

34.70
35.40

35.70
36.95
38.35

62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing

68. Labor cost 64. Book value 65. Book Iralue 66. Consumer
of mf rs . ' in- installment
of mf rs .! inper dollar of
ventories of
debt
real corporate ventories
GNP
finished goods

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

Revised1
99.1
98.5
99.1
98.9
99.0
98.4

99.4
99.0
98.8
99.8
99.8
[B]100.4
100.1
100.2

99.6

103.8
102.3

102.9
103.4
103.5

100.1

37.95

99.5

103.2

100.1

36.95
38.05

40.00
41.20

42.55
43.50
Gli45.65
a46.70

99.7
99.6
99.1
98.9
98.9
97 9
98 8
99.5
99 1
98 6
99.0
98.6
97.9
97.9
98.4
97.6
97.6
97 7
97.8
97.5
98 2
98.6
98 0
p97 o

104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6

104 2
104 8

JH1105 2
(NA)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1

18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8

41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774

55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8

19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8

42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174

57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1

19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2

47,659
48 , 1 54
48,631
49,152
49 , 593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51 , 410
51,941
52,324
52,784

60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
6l
r6l
[njp62

0
1
3
5
5
L
5
8
0
8
3

(NA)

21
21
21
21

2
/
/
6

pi

21
21
21
21
rovpi

7Q1

c

6
6
6
8

^
e£
en
£7

Q

(NA)

(Percent)

4.99
4.96

4.98
5.6l
4.99
515 .02

5.00
5.01
5.01
5.00

AQ p f p
G.**

c/ 01 c
c/ 7p7
cc ppn
cc car)

21 6

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*

07^
end
fvn
/ Ql

[HI 57 7^2

y QQ
...
1
QQ
4*77
...

/ 7°
4-. QS

c nn

(JJA\

a47 . 90
a48 , 70

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Current high values are indicated by GO; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14,
*.
15, 40, 43, .and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", .estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,' page iii.

30



bed

JANUARY

BASIC DATA

1965

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
82. Federal
cash payments
Year and month to public

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1

1961
July
Ml£Uflt, . .

.

September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
'Tuly
August
September . . . .
...
October
November. . . . .
...
December
1963
January
February
March. . . . . .
.....
April
May
June
.Tilly

August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January. . . . .
....
February
March
April
May
June

97.7
112.7
10^.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
115 1
108 8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108 9
116 3
111 6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2

83. Federal
cash receipts
from public

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
91.2
101.0
99.2
99-5
101.3
101.7
101 7
101.3

98 1
107 8
109.9
104 4
111 2

110 1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0

115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8

108.6
110.6
108.9

110.2
125.7
118.0
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7

111.9
114.9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5

12^.7
119.0
120.8
122.3
113.7
123.4
122.8
118.2
122.7
117.8
111.0

114.9
121.4
116.4
125.8

135.5

110.2
112.2

107.2
114.9
114.1
110.7

113.7
112.8
114.3
115.7

84. Federal
cash surplus
(+), or
deficit (-)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
-6.5
-11 7 •
-4.9
-10 3
-5 2
-2.6

-13 4
-7 5
-9 3
-2 3
+3.1
-4 5
-5.1
-1 5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2

-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
-10.8
-3.3
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9

95. Surplus
(+), or
deficit ( )
-,
Fed . income
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)
Revised1
1,181

-3 4.

2 , 278

-2.6

1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773

-4 4

1 758
1,228
1,410

-4.6
-2.9
-4.5

1,791
1,039
1,311
1,657
1,395
1,040
1,675
1,787
1,205
1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132

91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total

92. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms

(Mil. dol.)
Revised1
3 784
5 344
4,874
4 296
4 121
4,653

(Mil. dol.)
Revised1
2 087
2 232
2 158
2 651
2 379
2 281

L L^L

4 421
4,477
3,999
4,082
4,517
4,385
3,892
4,535
4,920
4,140

3 073
2 135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079

4 086

-0.7

1,700
1,207
2,010

+0.6

1,094
1,273

4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371

1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089

4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228

2,149
2,689
1,598'
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

-4.8
-1.0

-4.2

-9.8
+2.4
-4.4
+3.5
-6.5
-8.5
-8.7
-7.5
-9.0
-5.0
+3.3
-19.8

90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

-2. 4

-7.8
-5.2
(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;. "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




31

TABLE

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Year and month

99. New
orders, defense products

(Bil. dol.)

85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply

93. Free
reserves*

(Mil. dol.)

98. Change in
money supply
and time deposits

110. Total
private
borrowing

1 1 Corporate 112. Change,
1.
gross savings business loans

(Annual rate,
percent)

(Annual rate,
percent )

(Annual rate,
mil. dol.)
Revised1

(Annual rate,
mil. dol.)

40,928

33,084

41,464

35,528

42,476

36,664

53,476

37 780

49,112

39 040

49,332

40,296

45 240

39 444

*56 "?//

39 008

V7 872

40 012

57 216

3Q 0^6

+ c; yn
+L LL
+L LL

52 28Z

/ -3 i cf;

j./
+9
+8
+7

i/
72
76
//

f~n c.r\/

1 1 17?

+8
+8
+10
p+7

16
64
68
20

1961

July
Alight,. ,

September
October
November
December
1962
January. ........
February
March
April
May
June
July, , , , . . . , . , . ,

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April.
May
r une
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

2.11
1.96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1.82

+530
+537
+ 547
+442
+517
+419

0.00
+2.52
+ 5.04
+3.36
+6.60
+3.36

+5,40
+6.00
+6.96
+6.36
+8.52
+ 5.28

1.99
2.05
2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53

+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268

0.00
+1.68
+2.52
+3.24
-2.40
+0.84
-0.84
-0.84
-1.68
+4.08
+ 5.76
+4.92

+6.84
+10.92
+10 . 92
+7.68
+1.56
+6.12
+4.56
+4.08
+4.56
+9.52
+10.44
+11.40

2.89
2.09
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48

+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209

+3.24
+3.24
+4.08
+2.40
+3.24
+4.80
+6.36
+1.56
+3.12
+5.52
+9.48
-2.40

+8.28
+8.28
+9.12
+5,76
+ 5.76
+7.56
+8.52
+7.92
+6 48
+8.76
+13.80
+4.08

2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
r2.41
rl.78

+171
+91
+98
+162
+78
+118

+4 68
0 00
+3 12
+2 28
0 00
+8 52
+8.52
+3 84
+6.12
+4 56
+3.84
p^2 28

+9 96

pi. 57

+132

+79
+90

+103
-34

p+171

C.Z

Revised1

'ZQ/

// 7 y d

(NA1)

(NA)

(Annual rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
+2.18
+1.00
+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72

+2.90
+1.51
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
+1.43
+1.42
+1 85
+2 40
+2 35
+1 74
+1 97
+2 04
+2 08
+4 66
+5 22
+5 78
+1 79
+ "3
+1
+?
+j

/A
42
17
p^

+3
+4
+4
+4
+1
+0
+8

89
31
78
28
/3
32
62

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

32



bed

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

TABIE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
113. Change,
114. Treasury
bill rate*
consumer inYear and month stallment debt

(Annual rate,
Ml. dol.)

(Percent )

115. Treasury
bond yields*

(Percent)

116. Corporate 117. Municipal 118. Mortgage
bond yields*
bond yields*
yields*

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

86. Exports
excluding
military aid
shipments ,
total

(Mil. dol.)

1961

July
August
September
October
November ........
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September.
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March.
April.
May
June
July
Anp'iTf't i .........
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March. . . . . .
.....
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November . . . .
....
December
1965
January
February
March. . . . . .
.....
April
May
June

+0.10
+1.01
+0.78
+2 . 03
+2.65
+3.98

2.. 27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62

3.90
4.00
4.02
3.98
3.98
4.06

4.74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4.48
4.56

3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3.41
3.47

5.68
5.68
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.69

1 , 688 . 5
1,688.9
1 , 678 . 4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8

+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4-66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82

2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86

4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87

4.55
4.54
4.42
4.31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28

3.34
3.21
3.14
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07

5.69
5.68
5.65
5.64
5.60
5.59
5-58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53

1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
1,795.4
1,761.7
1,835.6
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838.7

+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52

2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52

3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14

4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4.35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4-36
4.42
4.49

3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27

5-52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45

984.8
2,117.5
1,960.4
1,912.7
1,892.6
1,784.7
1,823.0
1,894-6
1,979.6
1,946.4
1,944.6
2,049.4

+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+5.80
+5-22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
(NA)

3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3,86

4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4H
.
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14

4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49
44
.9
4.47
4.47

3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3.18
3.13

5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5-45
5.46
5-46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45

2,037.3
2,028.7
2,077.5
2,046.0
2,052.1
2,004.3
2,111.4
2,084.9
2,271.2
2,134.3
2,184.1
(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.




33

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Year and month

88. Merchan87. General
imports , total dise trade
balance
(series 86
minus series
87)
(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

89. Excess,
receipts (+)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.)

1961
July
August

September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March.
April
May
June
J\0y.
, , .,.
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July.
August
September
October
November ........
December
1964
January
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February. .......
March
April
May
June

1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,3U.5

+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3

1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
l,404.'l
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1 , 471 . 4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376 5

+341.8
+489.5
+330.3
+430 . 4
+357.6
+484.9
+401 7
+356.6
+436.5
+230 7
+299 7
+462 2

•

1,091 6
1,497.4
1,486 7
1,417.2
1,420.2
1,420.5
1,457.5
1,508.3
1,450.4
1,458.8
1,471.9
1,480.0

-106 8
+620 1
+473 7
+495 5
+472 . 4
+364 2
+365.5
+386 3
+529.2
+487.6
+472.7
+569.4

1,421.8
1,445.3
1,522.9
1,542.1
1,548.1
1,505.5
1,589.6
1,592.2
1,557.5
1,550.7
1,697.7
(NA)

+615.5
+583.4
+554.6
+503.9
+504.0
+498.8
+521.8
+492.7
+713.7
+583.6
+486.4

-700

-1,231

-748
-440
-334
-681

-1 062
-1 295
-1 S3

-134

-94

-730
-562
(NA)

(NA)

81. Consumer
prices

(1957-59=
100)
Revised1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5

94. Construction contracts, total
value

(1957-59=
100)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

(Bil. dol.)

110
116
103
114
116
119

43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17

104.7
104.9
105 1
105.3
105 4
105 4
105 3
105 5
105 9
105 8
105 8
ins Q

115
119
131
121
117

(Bil.

dol.)

45 80
46 42

106 1
106 1
106 2
106 3
106 4
106 7
106 9
107 1
106 9
107 0
107.2
107,7

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations ,
manufacturing

107.8
107 7
107.8
108 0
108 1
108 1
108.1
108 2
108 3
108 4
108 6
(NA}

AS 7S

7.66
7.63

7 82

45 41

113

A/
LL
//
LI
/q

117

/ 0 CO

123
1 3ft

/ 3 1ft
y y HQ
44. U?

1 91
1 3D

y r nA
/ c ni
/ A Aft

120
117

118

-1-10
TOG

•}//
1 3S
126
1 3?
1?ft
146

QS
Sft
Q^
73
^7

y 7 ^"^
4/Oj?
/7 ftA
in oft.
1 L. n >

7 77
...
7 QQ
...

8

yd

.. .

8

1L
...

r

n/
9 .U ?
...

) (L op.
j n A7

in i ^

144
148

/7 17
/7 Oft
/ A Aft

n

147

47 07

1A3
140

138
1 3ft
138
140
121
1 11
1 3A

1/3

(NA^

o?

y,7 A/

47 80
48 84

11 78
...

JQ OO

so n/

1 3 1/

51 30
SI 37
cp n t
c 7 -> /

->J*i4
Y*S1 19
«r o co

P5j>. :>-c

U

Q^
...

f-al\
\N&)

NOIE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (-*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover, Ttie "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" not available.
L

34

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii/




bed

BASIC DATA

JANUARY 1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
47. United
States ,
industrial
Year and month production

(1957-59=
100)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

123. Canada, 122. United
industrial
Kingdom,
industrial
production
production

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

121. OECD,1
European
countries ,
industrial
production

125. West
Germany,
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

118
118
119
119
119
122

138
137
140
145
149
148

133
132

122
123
124
123
124
123
1?5
125
126
128
128
126

149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160

182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178

129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139

127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138

158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170

179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217

142
144
145
140
150
143

140
139
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
p4
!0
(NA)

172
169
173
169
166
162
164
156
163
pi 62

219
224
224
226
229
234
234
234
239
243
(NA)

109
111
112
112
114.
114.

113
111
110
109
109
109

120
119
120
121
122
123

115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119

113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120

108
110
111
110
113
114.
113
114,
115
110
113
110

122
124.
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127

126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132

120
121
122
123
124.
126
126
125
126
126
126
127

120
121
122

110
111
113
1H
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121

127
126
127
130
131
132

128
128
129
130
131
132
133
134134r!31
135

133
134
133
135
132
133
133
135
135
p!35
(NA)

123
1?3
123
124.
123
123
122
123

139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
r!4Q
pi 41

132
132
134
135
136
136

(1957-59=
100)

128. Japan,
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)
Revised3
169
172
172
175
176
177

112
113
112
113
115
116

122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131

126. France, 127. Italy,
industrial
industrial
production
production

122

121
124
123
124
128

1964
January

February
March.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

nl T7

122
p!25
(NA)

(NA)

1 /7

1 / K.
r~\ 1 ^

1 /Q
nl ^O

(NA)

(Nk}

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
*.
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




35




Section TWO

n index charts and tables

DISTRIBUTIONS OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Car/oadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY

1965

0CCF

DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT and COMPARATIVE PERIODS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Current expansion
Sept.
1964

Oct.
1964

Nov.
1964

Business cycle peak

Jul^r
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

Dec.
1964

May
1960

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Dumber of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

8

7
1

1
1
1
2
3
4
3
23
13

2
1
1
2
3
6
23
26

8
1
1

2
2
1
1
7
23
30

5
1
2
1
1

7
1
3
1

12
1
"4
1

14
2
1
3
2
1

1

"2
2
'*3

'*3

3
16
19

22

l

ia

0

2

19
16

23
0

23
0

1

2

1

1
1

1
3

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

3

8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

'l
1

1

1
1
7
11
64

1
1
3
5
11
45

"4
1

1
1

2
"9

1
10

1

11
82

11
91

11
9

3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Aug.
1948

Apr.
1953

Apr.
1957

Feb.
1960

2
3
3
11
27

"2
3

**2

"5

3

n

11
27

45

6th month before business cycle peak

Jan.
1953

May
1948

Jan.
1957

Nov.
1959

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
..
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

3
4

11
1

1
,

4
1
*18
0

*2
2
3
1
'*4
2

19
21

20

"i
1

"i
23
0

12
1

6
1

1
2
1
3
2
1

"4
2

23
4

2
2
1
X

18
6

2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
2
19
16

17
1
1
1

"i
i
"i
23
4

4
4
4
2
4

"i
2
2
23
9

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

1
2

1

1

1

"*i

1

"4

4
4

*2
3
3

"*3

"i

6

5

11
36

11
27

11
55

45

1

1

2

'i
4
4
11
36

**4
2
2

n

2
3
6
11
55

5
3

n
27

"2
3
11
27

All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 1 ) and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted from the
5,
distribution.
X
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.

38


bed

CHART
JANUARY

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1965

DIFFUSION INDEXES SINCE 1948
NBER Leading Indicators

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

Prbfits, FNCB
prpfits--

price^ SCO comn on stoc

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6.



1953

1954

1|55

1958

195? 1958

1959

I860

1961 1962

1963 1964
39

CHART

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY 1965

bed

DIFFUSION INDEXES SINCE 1948—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Percent

100

50
0

100

50

100

50
0

100

50
0

40




See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 6

bed

CHART

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY 1965

DIFFUSION INDEXES SINCE 1948—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T




P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

100

50
0

100

50
0

100

50
0
HO,5

0
-0,5
100

50
0

Series number and
date of survey
D36 (Oct. 1964)
048 (Dec. 1964)
061 (Nov. 1964)
035,

Latest span shown
Actual
3rd 0 1963 - 3rd 0 1964
1st 01963 -1st 01964
2nd Q 19G4 - 3rd Q 1964

Anticipated
1st Q 1964- 1st Q 1965
1st Q 1964- 1st Q 1965
4th 0 1964 - 1st 0 1965

m
M i l l Illllllllll

#^;^S^^

41

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators

Year and
month

D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)

Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
NICE (17 industries)
1-quarter
span

3-quarter
span

1961
July

August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

61.9
64.3
40.5
92.9
71.4
23.8

95.2
90.5
64.3
92.9
92.9
100.0

36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3

81.9
83.3
79.2
86.1
76.4
80.6

76

71

47

'65

21.4
61.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31.0
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7

85.7
83.3
50.0
23.8
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0

63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.. 1
50.0
47.2

77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4

65

u

*32

'82

*82

*53

*59

'74

76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3

61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8

63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5

88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8

47

53

'59

*53

'59

*65

53

'71

4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
H.3
r76.2
r59.5
P69.0

85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
r85.7
T71.4
P73.8

55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
r58.3
r52.8
p68.1

76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
r58.3
r6l.l
p83.3

47

71

'68

71

*59

(NA)

(NA)

NOTE: Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within spans: 1-month figures are placed on latest month
and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

42




bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY 1965

TABLI

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and
month

D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(around 700
corporations )
1-quarter
span

D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
(80 industries)1
1-month
span

9-month
span

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span

9-month
span

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
1-month
span

9-month
span

1961
July

August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

58

'56

•54
*47
'^8

Au£US~b .........

September
October
November
December
1963
January. . . . .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September, . . .
..
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
Jll'Ly

August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

'56

50

'59
*56
55

57

*60
*57

(NAJ

42.5
81.2
40.0
46.9
87.5
55.0

76.2
73.7
71.2
67.5
70.0
62.5

53.8
46.2
61.5
38.5
15.4
61.5

53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
61.5
30.8

46.8
55.3
51.1
80.9
74.5
27.7

100.0
95.7
87.2
97.9
91.5
80.9

25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4

17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0

76.9
38.5
38.5
15.4
42.3
26.9
23.1
34.6
61.5
53.8
84.6
61.5

30.8
30.8
30.8
30.8
23.1
23.1
30.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
53.8
57.7

42.6
83.0
38.3
51.1
42.6
19.1
66.0
55.3
42.6
39.4
69.1
40.4

83.0
57.4
51.1
34.0
48.9
44.7
40.4
25.5
25.5
42.6
79.8
59.6

97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4

95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84-6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4

53.8
53.8
50.0
38,5
50.0
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
76.9
69.2
53.8

61.5
69.2
61.5
53.8
53.8
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
57.7
76.9

23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
44.7
61.7
31.9
34.0

38.3
68.1
74.5
57.4
63.8
87.2
48.9
34.0
85.1
59.6
57.4
74.5

74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0

83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8

61.5
57.7
38.5
61.5
38.5
50.0
65.4
61.5
53.8
76.9
61.5
38.5

61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
84.6
84.6
76.9
S
53.8

85.1
12.8
66.0
75.5
51.1
51.1
59.6
57.4
55.3
31.9
34.0
78.7

69.1
70.2
69.1
76.6
87.2
70.2
55.3
87.2

3

30.8

NOTE: Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within spans: 1-month figures are placed on latest month,
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter figures are
placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no adjustment and D34 which_is_ adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The
11
r" indicates revised; ""p", preliminary; and "NAH, not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 82 components, July 1961 to February 1963; on 80 .components, March 1963 to August 1963; on
79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.
18 components and 5 composites, representing an.
2
additional 23 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 5).
Average for January 12, 13, and 14.



43

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

JANUARY

1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and
month

D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(30 industries)
1-month
span

1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March.
April
May
June
Jti-iy. ..........
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
...
..
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

6-month
span

D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
span

6-month
span

D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)
1-month
span

9-month
span

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing
industries )
1-month
span

6-month
span

71.7
76.7
56.7
80.0
81.7
68.3

81.7
88.3
83.3
78.3
88.3
83.3

77.1
72.9
54.2
87.5
83.3
75.0

95.8
91.7
91.7
87.5
87.5
95.8

60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4

87.5
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6

50.0
56.5
60.9
39.1
47.8
56.5

39.1
45.7
52.2
50.0
54.3
56.5

65.0
75.0
75.0
86.7
60.0
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
r48.3
r43.3

86.7
88.3
81.7
78.3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0

25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4

83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5

58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7

87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3

69.6
43.5
52.2
58.7
45.7
43.5
39.1
41.3
54.3
34.8
45.7
39.1

60.9
60.9
58.7
54.3
60.9
47.8
32.6
45.7
39.1
30.4
23-9
26.1

65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0

60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3

79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
.83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1

83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3

50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1

70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1

39.1
43.5
37.0
41.3
58.7
63.0
47.8
60.9
58.7
73.9
69.6
60.9

30.4
45.7
54.3
52.2
50.0
58.7
71.7
76.1
73.9
69.6
67.4
67.4

53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
r46.7
86.7
P78.3

75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
r75.0
r93.3
p85.0

58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
79.2
68.8
r43.8
r62.5
r64.6
P77.1

91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5
87.5
79.2
r72.9
p87.5

43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
37*5
r64.6
r58.3
p60.4

79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
r70.8
P75.0

58.7
63.0
45.7
63.0
43.5
45.7
65.2
67.4
60,9
58.7
r50.0
P78.3

73.9
67.4
60.9
50.0
60.9
63.0
63.0
r58.7
P78.3

NOTE: Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within spans: 1-month figures are placed on latest month,
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and »NA", not available.

Digitized for 44
FRASER


bed

JANUARY

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1965

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
( 0 companies)
80

D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured commodity
groups )

D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)

4-quarter span

Year and
month

D36. New orders, durable
manufactures
( 0 companies)
40
4-quarter span

4-quarter span

1-quarter span

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

Actual

Anticipated

1961
July

August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. . .
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

56.2

+62

"so

'88

'76.

'sZ

57.9

94.7

*80

'vZ

74

63^2

39.5

74

71

.*70

42!l

6s!Z

-67

74

*82

'•76

*76

63^2

63^2

+29

'•76

*80

'•77

*76

73.7

78.9

+39

*74

'so

*76

'•76

57.9

68.4

+44

*82

'sZ

*82

"so

78.*9

78^9

+40

'sZ

*85

*82

*84

(NA)

73.7

-13

*83

"87

"sZ

"sZ

68 !Z

+34

'86

'sZ

94.7

r+68

*87

"sZ

75.0

1%

'•72

50.0

^66

*76

50.0

sZ.'Z

89^5

75.0

62*. 5

63.*2

71.9

71.9

82

75.0

71.9

*78

50.0

75.0

*86

6B.B

+125

'si

65^6

65*.6

89*. 5

68^8

40.6

73.7

62.5

46^9

*86

65^6

65^6

*82

59!Z

68^8

*88

62.5

65.6

*S2

89^5

,.

68.8

59.4

NOTE: Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within spans: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle
quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
"r" indicates revised; "p», preliminary; and "NA",
not available.




45

TABLE
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES
D I. Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing

1-monlbh

9-month spans

sp ans

P^rce^t ri^ ing . * * * • * . . . . . . . * . * . ....... t .......*.
All Tp^-mif an.tiiring industries ....................

!
1

f "«M
i
*4

3 Jn 8

5 88 /,0 6? /,3 ?6 ^ 71 1;i
4,
— +
4
Q

43

Q

7^
0

-p

6n
4.

Nov-Dec

May-Jun
Jun-Jul

Dec -Jan
Jan-Feb
Feb-Mar
Mar-Apr

21 industry components

6Q
4.

S
l-a

0
'0> jrf ft OJ S
B ^ b p
fr* S <I S ^?

1965

1964

1965

IS 64

q ,0 ^ F n > s S H b 0 P < 4 3 >

c> _ -0 ja ft eg 3
S CD ^ 5^ E> S

l s | f | | ^ | ^ < s ^ 1 if i! 1 f ^
F H > > C H b p f l < - P > O f l ^ > f j

Q

»-3 pc,

S <J S

^I.^5l«<S«3lfil

II 1 : 3 1 1

52 64 67 74 86 50 52 74 33 86 71 74

CO

DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber arid wnod prodnfvhs . , , . . , , . , , , . , , , , . . , , , , . . , . . .
Pq^nitur*1 flnd f Txtur^s
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary met^n produrvfcs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fahri^at^d metal pi*nfliiftts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
M-T,8f»pn,aner|fUfl manuf^tTiri'ng •Tn^is-t^fts

n

+

_

4.

4-

O

o
+

n
Q

+

+

o

+

Q

4-

n

0

0
0

+

+
_
_

+

+

+

4
0

O

+

o

4-

4

4

+

+

+
+

O
+

0

4-

4-

0

+
n

0

4-

+

4O

-

+ +

+ - + + -

+ - +

4-4.

+

4 .

+
+
+
K
+
+

- 4
+
+
+
+

-

73
m
Co

- 4 + +
+ +
4+ +
+O

4 . _ _

+

+

_
O

+
4,

+

4_

- +
- +
- 4- +
- +

n

4,

+

_

+
+
4.
4-

+

O
44.

C

+

4.4.

+ + +
+ + +
+
O O
+
O -OO
-O
+

+
+
O
O
+

+
+
+
+
+
--

+

OO
+ +
- +
+
- - +
+

+
+
-

+

NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel a"nd allied prodnn-ts . . . , . . . , , . , . . ,
Paper a^d al 1 i,^d prn^unt^

-

4-

4-

+

+

+

o
+

4-

^hemicalR and allied pr<^dn«tp. . , . . , . . . . , . . » . , . . . , . * ,
Petrnlpiup and coal products .........................
Rubber products
.
• *
Leather and leather products
....*

4
4-

+

44-

4-

Q

o

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50

in

TABLE
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
D6. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries

1-month spans

9-month spans

Q-0 h ^ > ? S d ^ P ^ - ^ > o

fi

56 44 58 61 44 50 64 40 54 58 53 68

0

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-

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+

+ + +
- + +
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+ + -+ - + - + + - -+ + + - - - - + + -

SJlipbi "nidi TIP" and railroad pquipment*

•
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-

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_ + +

-0

+

-

-

+

»

_ + +

_

+

_

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+
+

_

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_

_

+

+

-

+

-

+

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

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+ -+ - + + + +
- + + + + - + + -»--

+

- O

+

+

+

n

+

-+ + - + -+
+ + + + + + -•*--

-

+ + + + + + + + +

+ + +
+ - +

+ + + - + + + - +
- + + + + + + + +

-

- +

m

+

-

-

O

-

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

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+
+
+

-

- +

+

-

+ +
--*+ + +

+

--

+

+

0

+

-j-

0

0

+

--

Motor vehicle assembly operations

-

+

+

Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:

+

-

+ + + -

-

+

+

O

+ - - +

- +
- +

+ » rising; o * unchanged; - * falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
 machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
*Denotes


IS)

+
+

+ - - + + - + + + - +
- + + -+ -+ +-

- - + + -

Service industry machinery*
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmits! on y dis-h/p, equipment*, , T

Furniture total
Stone clay and glass, total

g

+ + + - -+ + + + + + +
- + _ O - + +
+ +
+ + + - +
+ + - + +
+ + + + + + + + +

-

Other transixyrtation eoiiipment
&isti*uinents total

^

+ + + + + + + + +
-*-'- + + + + + - + + + +

Maf*jhinp shops
Sppr»ial industry TnachTfi^py*
-.*---,
funeral industrial machinery*. . . , . , . . . . . . . , . * - - . .

.

FH

--

Cnr\,c!-fcp\if»t'ioTi flviTnng arid material handling*. f . . . . +
Metalworlcing machinery*
;

Household appliances ,
Radio and TV

FH

" r ^ ^ S & J S , ?

Illil'tl^fl'sl

Primary metals:
Blast furnaces, steel mills . .
Nonf prroup metals
Iron and steel foundries . .
Ohhe;p primary metals ...... T
Fabricated metal products:
Mptal cans barrels and drums
Hardware, stru^t-iirai m^tal RTT! wire pvodnnt.??.
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Ste am engines and turb ine s*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment

,0

I

1965

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+
0
^
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^ I f l ^ l f ^ c ? ^
Percent rising ...
All durable goods industries

1964

1965

1964

36 industry components

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DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
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Aug-Sep

Hr 1 3 '
9
I 3 T*
f,
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85 13 66 7tb 51 51 60 5 1 55

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Percent rising
1
47 labor market areas

4-

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L964

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Jan-Oct
Feb-Nov

ii

26 area components

Dec -Jan
Jan-Feb
Feb-^Iar

1965

1964

•^•3

SE ans

g -month

sp ans

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1-1ooonth

1

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NORTHEAST REGION

7
16
11
1
21
4
$
23

Boston
Buffalo
Newark
New York
Paterson*
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Providence**

•

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3
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5
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22
15
13
9

4-

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Cincinnati
Cleveland
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Indianapolis
Kansas City
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20
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2 Los Angeles
24 Portland
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19 Seattle*

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- - rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted
to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
^Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in November 1964.
**Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in November 1964.
x
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.




2

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I

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: 53 s:

^

Aug-Sep
Sep-Oct
Oct-Nov
Nov-Dec
Dec-Jan
Jan-Feb
Feb-Mar
Mar-^Apr
Apr-^May
May-Jun

I 4 4

1 4 4 4 4

+

I

+

1

+

4 +

1 4 4

+ +

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+ 4

+ 4

1 4 4

4 4

+ 4

+ 4 + +

Z
O
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m

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+

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4 4

+ + + +

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I

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+

+

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1 + +

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4 4

4 4 4 4

4

+

+

+

+

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4 4 1

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4 4

4 4 4 4

+

+

+

+

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1 4

4 4

I +

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Dec-Jun

1

+ 1
+ I

fl>

Z

Sep-Mar
Oct-Apr
Nov-May

4

to

t/j

O

+

I

CO

O
O

Jul-Jan
Aug-Feb

4 + + +

I

P

Z
m
Z

+ + 4 +

+

I

I

I

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I

+

t

i + ++

i +

+ +

4- +

1

i i

+ +

Q. -n

Jan-Feb
Feb-Mar
Mar-Apr
Apr-May
May-Jun
Jun-Jul

i i

I I

+ + I

Dec-Jan

1 1 1 +
+ + + i
+ i ++

4 I1

+

+

+

4 4

4-44

4 4

4 4

4 4 4 4

+

i1

+

+

+

4- +

44 +

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I +

4 + + +

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+ I

+ I1

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53 53 535

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4 4 + 4

oa
+ oa

Jan-Jul
Feb-Aug
Mar-Sep
Apr-Oct
May-Nov
Jun-Dec

i

I
3
C

Jul-Jan
Aug-Feb
Sep-Mar
Oct-Apr
Nov-May
Dec-Jun

S961



saansvaw IVDIIAIVNV

DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
D54. Sales of Retail Stores

c
30

1-mombh spans

1964

1965
4s

>

0

S ?
Q h9

$ j! Q* J? J
fr g <*J S >-3

S

*3 :
*-a «

«

Percent rising
44 71 52 52 67 67 46 52 38 65 58 60
All "petal 1 sales ... ............................
+ — + — — + + —
Grocery stores
+ - + - + +
-Other food stores
Eft~t"inp ^nd drinkinp" "places
+
+
- O 4 - + +
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise ) . . . . - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4
+ + + Variety stores
,
» . + -Other general merchandise stores
_ +
_ + + _ +
^_
MPR'S snd boys ' wear stores

Women's apparel, accessory stores
FftTnilv and other auDarel stores
Shoe stores
FTjunvtyupe home f \iriiishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber y^r^s, building materials deaJLers ............
Hardware stores
F^i*m equipment dealers
Passenger car anr} other aTTfconxvtive dealers. , , . . . , , . .
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline s^rvif-e stations ...........................
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry st<">r^s .............. t
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable^oods stores

S
OJ

-°
<D

&
CS

%
&

£?
rt

4

— 4 4

4

-

-

-

§ fe
0

I-D

&

^

Hi S
&

<3j

3 d 5P P< 4s
p ? (U 0

S
P

J $i J ! 1 *i =¥ 1 f T
t
S £

| ? 1 f 1 •? ? 1 1

1965

^
t-p

1- S '-S *"3 <J
J? ^ I
<J

hp

<q

CO O

p< -p

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o

<D
CO

a

O O 0)
O S Q

3
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Feb-Nov

1964

24 retail store components
^

<>
tn

9-month sj ans

3

S
ed

-0 ^
OJ b

fc Jtf ^
& b G

<t{

O

S <-3

*-3

i ^ ^ 1*1
ft ff p p g a)
<3

CO

DA

0,

71 92 83 77 79 100 85 83 83 83 71 7*1
4
+

4
+

4
+

4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4
4 - -

-

4

4

-

-

4

-

4

-

4

4

-

-

4

4

4
4
4
O

4
+

4
4.

4
-

4 4
4 -

4 4
O +
4
4
-

4

4

4

4

4

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ 4-

4
4

4
4

4
4

4
4

4
4

+

4

4 4

+

4 4

4

4

4

-j__

4

+

4 4 4 "
_ + +
+
-

+

4
_
+

--

4
+

4
_

_

4
.

_

+

+

-O

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

4

4

--

4

4

-

4

-

+

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4.

-1-

4

4

+

-j-

4

4

O

— 4

4

+

4

4

4

-

-

+
_j_

4

4

+

4 4 4

_l_

_(.

'

-j.
4

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

4
-

4

4

-

4

O 4

-

4

-

4

4

-

4

4 —
+ +

4

_

+

+

+

4
+

+

+

4

4
+

-

4

-

4

-

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

0

-

4

-

4

4

4

-

4

4

-

O

-

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

-

-

4

4

4 4
+ +

4

4 —

„

4 4
+ +

4

+

_

+

-

4

4

4

-

4

-

4

4

-

4 4

4
4 4

-

4

4

4

+

4 4

^

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.

H

n

2
rn
>

Ul
CO




TABLE
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
D58. Index of Wholesale Prices, All Manufacturing

1-month spans

6—month spans

1964

1965

1964

1965

23 manufacturing industries

tS
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries.

59 63 46 63 44 46 65 67 61 59 50 78
-

0

0

70 67 67 74 67 61 50 61 63 63 59 78

£
m

4-

cn

DURABLE GOODS
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables.
Nonmetcllic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products...

n

- 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 0

Fabricated nonstructural metal products.
General purpose machinery" and equipment.
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products

- + 4 - + 0 - - 4
4- 4- - 4 - 4
4 - - - 4 - 4

44444 -

4444 -

- - - O
4- - - O
4- 4- 4+
4- 4- 4+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

0
-

444-

4O
4-

44-

+
+

4O
4-

44-

4 - - 4 - 4 - O 4 - 4 - 4 - O

4-

4-

4-

4-

-

4-

- - 0 - 4 - 4 - - 0 4 -

- 4 - 4 4-4-44- 4-

+ - - - 4
4 - - - +
4- 4- 4- 4O - 4 - +

4- 4- 4- +
4- - - - - _ . +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - O - - - - 44" +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - O 4 - 4 - - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - H
- _ _ _ - _ _ - + +

4 - 4 - O 4 - 0 4 - 4 - - -

m
to

NONDURABLE GOODS
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages.
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmad£, fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined.
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products.

440

4- +
4- + O
- 4 - 4 - +
0 - 4 -

O
4O

+

+

444 4 -

0 4 - 4 - 4 4- + - 4- 4- 44 - 4 4 - 4 -

o -

-

4444 4 -

0

-

4-

-

O

4-

Z,

4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.




O

l/l

THE CURRENT EXPANSION
IN HISTORIAL PERSPECTIVE
Julius Shiskin
Chief Economic Statistician
Bureau of the Census

INTRODUCTION
Everyone who follows business conditions knows that the
current expansion is one of the longest and strongest in
American history. There are some weak spots: Notably,
the total unemployment rate has been running at a higher
level than is generally acceptable and the persistent balance
of payments gap has not been closed. All things considered,
however, it is difficult to point to a previous expansion which
made a better record.
Why has this latest expansion done so well? An intensive
search for an answer to this question is called for, because
each business cycle adds to our knowledge about systematic
economic fluctuations. In addition, the lessons of this expansion are more likely, than those of others, to contribute
to developing policy programs and techniques for sustaining
this and future expansions.
The approach, in this paper, is to compare the cyclical
behavior of the current expansion with that of its predecessors. First, comparisons are made of the duration,
amplitude, and patterns of aggregate economic activity. These
comparisons provide the basis for making an overall
appraisal of the performance of this expansion. Next, similar
comparisons are made for leading and lagging indicators,
and finally, for three processes where the recent cyclical
behavior was unusual; e.g., prices, the cash budget, and
various financial indicators. These comparisons provide
insights into the factors which account for the exceptional
performance. Most comparisons cover 9 business cycles
from 1920 to 1964, but one, that for industrial production,
covers the 18 business cycles from 1890 to 1964.
This investigation shows that the steady rate of advance
in aggregate economic activity since February 1961, the
trough of the previous recession, has not been very different,
in a broad sense, from that of the three earlier post-World
War II expansions. There have been significant differences,
however, in the patterns of leading and lagging series—in
prices, the cash budget, and various financial indicators. In
addition, the current expansion was marked by a short retardation in aggregate economic activity about a year and a
half after the upswing began. This investigation also brings
into clear focus the dramatic improvement in economic
stability during the post-World War II period, especially as
compared to the whole interwar period or the 1920's or
1930's taken separately. In this light, the improvement shown
by the current expansion reflects a further extension of a
post-World War II pattern of mild declines followed by
moderate but sustained expansions—a pattern substantially
different from that of earlier periods of our economic history.



An examination of the current expansion in comparison
'with earlier expansions may be premature because the
current advance has not yet come to an end. However, since
this expansion has already lasted longer than nearly all of its
predecessors, some instructive historical comparisons can
be made. Eventually, weaknesses which could have serious
consequences for later developments and which are not now
evident may be found in its performance. On the other hand,
extended continuation of the expansion may later show it to be
even better than it appears now. For such reasons, this paper
must be considered an interim, rather than a final report.
AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Relative Duration
The latest monthly statistics available on a broad" front
for October, show a continuation of the expansion which began
in February 1961. October, therefore, marks the 44th month
of the current expansion. In terms of duration, this is now
the second best peacetime expansion in history. The only
peacetime expansion that lasted longer was that from March
1933 to May 1937—50 months. But the 1933-37 expansion
started from the great abyss in 1933, and it takes a long
time just to regain the lost ground. For this reason, it does
not seem appropriate to compare the current expansion with
that earlier one. Furthermore, the 1933-37 expansion was
also marred by a major interruption in 1934. No other peacetime expansion lasted as long as 44 months. The closest was
the 1945-48 expansion which lasted 37 months. The expansion
which began in October 1949 lasted 45 months, but covered
the Korean War period from June 1950 to July 1953. The
three other wartime (expansions (June 1861 to April 1865,
December 1914 to August 1918, and June 1938 to February
1945) also lasted 44 months or longer.
We are now well beyond the average duration of the 22
recorded peacetime expansions from 1854 to 1960, 26months;
the 8 peacetime expansions since World War I, 28 months;
and the 3 peacetime expansions since World War II, 32
months. The three expansions in the 1920's averaged only
23 months.
This paper was presented at the 12th Annual Conference on
the Economic Outlook, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor,
Mich. , November 19, 1964. The writer is under obligation
to A. Ross Eckler, Murray D. Dessel, Geoffrey H. Moore,
and Lorman C. Trueblood for helpful comments on an earlier
draft of this paper and to Feliks Tamm, Betty F. Tunstall,
and Barry Beckman for invaluable assistance. However, the
views expressed in this paper are the author's and notnecessarily those of the Bureau of the Census or any person
listed above.

55

Table 1.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough

Cycle

(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857 .
.October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873 . . . .
March 1882

May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900. '.

March 1887
July 1890 .
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902

(X)
18
8
32
18
65

30
22
46
18
34
36

(X)
48
30
78
36
99

(X)
40
54
-=i±
50
5?
101

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
4?
39

23
13
24
23
7

44
46
43
35

56
32
36
67
.1
2

i?

33
19
12
44
10
22

28

An

14
13
43
13
g
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
S£

41
34
93
93
Jilsi

48

56

13
~9
9

35
25
(X)

58
^2.
44

£#
34
(X)

Aver age , all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

May 1907 .
. . .January 1910. .....
January 1913 ....
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923 .
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948 .
July 1953
July 1957
.May 1960

,

51

34

17

Z5
.

X
49
2

54
46

3

4
46
5
48
6

42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
*21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.

The record of this expansion refutes the view, widely
expressed at its onset, that expansions are getting shorter.
Indeed, the averages cited above suggest that they had been
getting longer even before the long duration of the current
expansion became evident.
The full record of the durations of the 26 business cycles
from 1854 to date is shown in table 1.
Total Amplitude
The current expansion is also well above the average for
other peacetime expansions in terms of total amplitude, the
Digitized for56
FRASER


change from one business cycle to the next. This is one
measure of the growth that takes place over the course
of a business cycle. Thus, the relative advance, compared
to the previous business cycle peaks, is the strongest since
World War I for most economic processes. This fact is
revealed in table 2 which shows the ranking of the amplitude
of the current expansion and the eight previous expansions
for the principal leading, coincident, and lagging business
cycle indicators. A rank of "1" is assigned to the expansion
of the lowest relative amplitude and the rank of "9" to that
with the highest relative amplitude. The amplitude is
measured from the previous specific peak levels. Comparitsons of the patterns of expansions in terms of their previous

Table 2.-INTENSITY RANKINGS OF RECENT EXPANSIONS
(Measured from specific peak levels and specific trough dates. Rank of "9" indicates best relative performance; "1" indicates
poorest.
Where data for all cycles are not available, the expansion with the best relative performance is given a rank of
"9", that with the second best, a rank of "8", etc.)
Months
after
specific
trough1

Series

Reference expansions beginning —
July
1921

July
1924

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
19382

Oct.
19492

Aug.
1954

Apr.
1958

Feb.
1961

Composite index of 8 leaders
Average workweek
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts3
Stock prices

45
45
44
39
47

*3
(NA)
(NA)
*3
*4

*7
*4
*4
*7
8

*8
*8.5
(NSC)
*6
(NSC)

2
3
(NSC)
2
2

(NA)
6
8
9
3

*9
(NSC)
*9
4
*7

*4
*7
*7
(NSC)
*9

*5
*5
*5
5
*5

6
8.5
6
8
6

Composite index of 6 coinciders
Nonagricultural employment. . . .'
Industrial production
GNP, current dollars
GNP, 1954 dollars
Labor income
Retail sales

43
43
43
42
42
45
41

*3
*1
*5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5

*4
*3
*2
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)

*6
*6
*6
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)

2
2
1
4
5
4
4

(NA)
9
9
9
(NA)
9
9

9
8
8
8
9
*8
(NSC)

*7
*5
*4
*6
*7
*6
7

*5
*4
*3
*5
*6
*5
*6

8
7
7
7
8
7
8

36
36
33
33

(NA)
*3
*4
*2

(NA)
*5
(NSC)
*4

(NA)
*6
(NSC)
*7

5
2
5
*3

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

9
8
9
8

8
*9
8
9

*6
*4
*7
*6

7
7
6
5

..

Composite index of 3 loggers
Business expenditures (actual)
Labor cost per unit of output
Bank rates on business loans

NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month indicated in the first column. The measurement is based on the change to the specific peak and the period is shorter than that for
the current expansion.
•'•Based on the period of the current specific expansion for each series. The number of months is the same for each expansion
except those marked with an asterisk ( )
*.
2
War-time expansions.
3
Except for the expansion beginning in 1 6 , these measures are based on a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted
91
series.

Table.1-AVERAGE MONTHLY PERCENTAGE CHANGES DURING THE 9 EXPANSIONS SINCE WORLD WAR I

(Expansion is defined as the period beginning 1 year after reference trough and ending at the following specific peak. The percent is based on the average of 3 values centered at specific peak and the average of the 3 values centered at the 12th value
after preceding reference trough)
Series
Composite index of 6 coincident series
Nonagricultural employment, establishments2...
Industrial production
GNP in 1954 dollars
Wholesale prices

1921-23
+2.59
+1.47
+2.39
(NA)
+0.59

1924-26 1927-29 . 1933-37 1938-40x
+0.55
+0.53
+0.44
3
+0.26
3
-0.15

+0.64
+0.58
+1.04
+0.29
3
-0.05

+1.55

+1.13

+0.51
+1.40
+0.98
+0.25

+0.44
+1.50
+0.48
+0.21

19611949-53 1954-57 1958-60 present

+0.83
+0.25
+0.52
+0.42
+1.12

+0.53
+0.21
+0.23
+0.14
+0.31

+0.46
+0.21
+0 . 38
+0.16
-fO.03

+0 69
+0.23
+0 49
+0.35
0.00

^•For 1938-40, expansion is defined as the period beginning 1 year after the reference trough and ending 1 year later.
factory employment, which fluctuates more than nonagricultural employment, is included for the period 1921-29.
No specific cycle comparison could be made for this period; the entry, therefore, covers the period starting 1 year after
the reference trough and ending at the reference peak.
2
Qnly
3

peak levels appear to be superior to other alternatives. The
advantage stems from the observation that the rise during
the early stages of an expansion appears to be related typically to the magnitude of the decline during the previous
recession—the more severe the decline, the more vigorous
the rebound.
Meaningful comparisons of the patterns of
expansion, therefore, are more likely only after expansions
have attained previous peak levels. Several other ways of
comparing cyclical patterns are shown each month in
Business Cycle Developments, a monthly publication of the
Bureau of the Census, and many of the observations made in



this paper can be checked against them.
Note that, in terms of relative amplitude, the current
expansion has already exceeded all other peacetime expansions in this group. Two expansions included among
these nine must be considered wartime expansions—that
beginning in 1939 and that beginning in 1949. Thus the total
amplitude of the current expansion is relatively highest in
measures of aggregate economic activity—nonagricultural
employment, industrial production, GNP, and retail sales;
these activities all have a rank of "7" or "8" and were surpassed only in wartime expansions.

57

tn

Chart 1.-COMPOSITE INDEX OF COINCIDENT SERI ES«Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 9 Most Recent Expansions

00

(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

1921*40 expansions compared with
expansion beginning in 1961

1949-60 expansions compared with
expansion beginning in 1961
^Reference trough dates

130 |~

130

120

120-=

110

no I
0)

o

0)
O

; 100

100 °

o
0)

a

90

90

80

o
a_

70

60
^-Reference trough dates

-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

+6

+12

+18 +24

Months from reference troughs
"* Latest data plotted-September 1964




+30

+36

+42

+48

-12

-6

0

+6+12+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36

+42 +48

Table 4.-BUSINESS CYCLES IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SINCE 1892
(Average per-month rates of change and variation about these averages. This table is based upon specific cycles in industrial
production, measured from peak to peak. Since no specific cycle was marked off to correspond to the reference cycle from
July 1890 to January 1893, this table has 1 less cycle than chart 3, which is based upon reference cycles. In computing the
percentage changes, the average of all the values in a business cycle (measured peak to peak) are used as the base to avoid
the usual upward bias in the common method of computing percentage changes)
Average per-month change
Business cycles
Contraction

17 cycles, 1 9 to date
82
3 cycles , 1892 to 1903
5 cycles, 1903 to 1920
5 cycles, 1920 to 1 4
93
4 cycles , 1 4 to date1
98

a

-1.33
-1.45
-1.13
-1.84
-0.70

Expansion

+1.10
+0.89
+1.20
+1.41
+0.73

Standard deviation

Contraction
and
expansion
(without
regard to
sign)

Contraction

1.17
1.03
1.18
1.53
0.72

0.68
0.17
0.69
0.58
0.26

Expansion

0.43
0.12
0.45
. 0.38
0.18

Contraction
and
expansion
(without
regard to
sign)
04
.4
0.18
0.30
0.42
0.16

1
In order to complete'this table,it was necessary to assume that a cyclical peak occurred in September 1 6 , the latest month
94
for which data were available when this table was prepared.

Patterns
The similarities and the differences in the patterns of the
current expansion and those which preceded it can be seen
in chart 1 which shows a composite index of six coincident
series—nonagricultural employment, the total unemployment
rate, industrial production, bank debits, personal income, and
retail sales. The technique of constructing this index involves
standardizing the rates of change in the component series so
that they can be combined in a meaningful way. They are
weighted by their historical business cycle performance.
Consequently, this index measures a complex of activities
which experience similar cyclical timing.1
During the current expansion, this index (shown in chart 1)
has, through most of its course, moved very much as it did
from 1954 to 1957; the movements in both of these expansions have been fairly similar to those during the 194953 and 1958-60 expansions. This similarity is in sharp
contrast to the wide fluctuations in cyclical behavior during
the five business cycles experienced between World Wars I
1
For a description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see appendix A of "Signals of Recession and
Recovery", Occasional Paper 77 by Julius Shiskin (National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. , New York, 1961.)

and II. The contrast can also be seen in chart 2, comparing the cyclical patterns of gross national production
(GNP) in constant dollars. The post-World War II record
of economic stability is also substantially better than that
of the nine business cycles from 1890 to 1920 as can be
seen, in chart 3, for industrial production. It is interesting
to note that even extending 1958-60 expansion curve to include
the 1960-61 recession does not affect substantially the
similarities of the four most recent expansions compared
to those which preceded it.
The relative similarity of the 1948-64 expansions compared with the 1921-38 expansions is brought out in another
way in table 3. There, the average rates of advance, after
1 year of expansion in general business, to subsequent peak
levels are shown for each of the expansions since 1921 for
several different measures of aggregate economic activity.
The first year of expansion is omitted from the calculations
for the same reason the cyclical comparison charts are
alined at the peak levels of the previous expansion rather
than at the previous trough levels: The rate of advance
during the first year or so is related to the severity of the
previous recession. This table shows a relatively small
range in the rates of advance during the post-World War II
cycles compared to the interwar cycles. Thus, for the

EXPLANATION OF CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
ences in cyclical patterns are significant. Up to this
point they reflect mainly the severity of the preceding
recessions.
In chart 11, showing the Federal cash surplus or
deficit and the change in the .money supply, the data are
alined at previous trough dates, but plotted to absolute
vertical scales because they include negative as well as
positive numbers.

The usual chronological timing sequence followed in
charts is disregarded in charts 1-11. Instead, the data
are alined at a strategic point in the business cycle. The
common point in timing for each cycle is the business
cycle trough date, so that the values for February 1961,
April 1958, August 1954, and October 1949 are all plotted
at the same point along the time scale (horizontal) . As
a result of this arrangement, a comparison of the pattern
of the current expansion with patterns of previous expansions can be made.
In charts 1-10 (except chart 5) the levels are alined
at different points--those of the previous peaks. This
arrangement is preferable to one in which the data are
alined at previous trough levels because the rapidity of
the rise just after a business cycle trough has depended
upon the severity of the preceding decline, large declines
usually being followed by vigorous rises. It is only after
the previous peak levels are again attained that differ-




The patterns of recession are each shown twice, once
during the recession periods on the left side of each
chart, and then again after the cyclical peaks on the right
side of each chart. Thus the 1960-61 recession is shown
just before the 1961-64 expansion (heavy solid line) , and
also after the 1958-60 expansion (dashed line) .
The date of the end of each business cycle expansion
is .marked by a small solid circle (•) on each expansion
curve.

59

Chart 2.--GNP IN CONSTANT DOLLARS--Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 8 Most Recent Expansions
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

1924-41 expansions compared with

1949-60 expansions compared with

expansion beginning in 1961

expansion beginning in 1961
130

120 -

120

o
0)
a.

no

110
Reference peak levels

I

>
- 100

100

90

90

5 80
Q_

70
-Reference trough dates

Reference trough dates
l , , , , , l , i , , , l , , , , , 1 . . , i , 1 . . , , , 1,.i.,l...
-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

Annual data used for 1940 and 1941. See sources of data at end of paper.




+30

+36

+42

..I. .,.,!.,,. . ( . . . . . I

+48

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

|HM.|.....|I..M|

+30 +36

Months from reference troughs

Latest data plotted—3rd quarter 1964

+42

+48

Table 5.-17 CYCLES IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SINCE 1892

(Durations and average per-month rates of change. The cycles from March 1892 to January 1920 are based on the Babson index of
physical volume of business activity; the cycles from February 1920 to the present are based on the Federal Reserve Board!s
index of industrial production. The cycle between November 1943 and July 1948 has been omitted from this table)
Contraction
(trough from previous peak)
Specific cycle dates
Duration
(months )
Trough
October 1893
September 1896
October 1900
December 1903
May 1908

Average
per-month
change

Expansion
(trough to peak)
Duration
(months )

Average
per-month
change1

Average
per-month
change

Duration
(months )

+1.08

44
55
37
46
34
34
52
32

1.27
0.85
10
.0
1.05
1.76
0.80
1.08
1.31

39
46
28
94
78

2.21
0.87
0.96
1.59
1.72

60
43
35
56 .

0.75
06
.4
1.02
0.56

Peak
March 1892
November 1895
June 1900.
July 1903
May 1907
March 1910

-1.53
-1.21
-1.67
-2.42
-2.32
-0.74
-0.69
-0.80

25
45
33
41
22
24
30
10

November 1914
March 1 1
99

May 1917
January 1920

19
10
4
5
12
10
22
22

April 1921
July 1924
November 1927
July 1932
May 1938

February 1920
May 1923
March 1927
July 1929
May 1937
November 1 4
93

14
14
8
36
12

-2.59
-1.16
-0.64
-1.97
-2.14

25
32
20
58.
66

October 1 4
99
April 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1948
July 1953
February 1957
January 1960
September 19642

15
9
14
13

-0.48
-1.01
-0.98
-0.45

45
34
21
43

January 1 Q] 3 ,,,,.... .Jarma^y 1913.t ......r

Computed without regard to sign.

2

+0.77
+0.92
+0.88
+1.45

+0.82
+1.36

+2.44
+2.01

+0.75
+1.09
+1.35
+1.65

+0.85
+0.55
+1.05

+0.59

Most recent business cycle high; not a specific peak.

composite index of six coincident series, the average rates
ranged from 0.46 to 0.83 since 1948 and from 0.55 to 2.59
for 1921-38; for industrial production, the corresponding
ranges were 0.23 to 0.52 and 0.44 to 2.39.
Further data on the cyclical stability and uniformity of
industrial production are provided in tables 4 and 5. Table
4 shows the average per-month rates of change, and the
variation about them, for all the cycles since 1892, and
separately for the three specific cycles from 1892 to 1903;
the five from 1903 to 1920; the five from 1920 to 1943; and
the four from 1948 to date. The average rates of change
for each cycle in industrial production are provided in table
5. The averages for contractions and expansions combined
are computed without regard to sign. Theimethod for computing all these percentages utilizes the average of the
values of the production index for each business cycle as a
base, to avoid the upward bias in the common method of
computing percentage changes. Where the business cycle
is treated as a unit in time, the measures are computed
from peak to peak. This is necessary so that the current
expansion can be includedi For the (purpose of these computations, September 1964 is taken as the peak.
These data suggest the following points:
1. There has been a dramatic improvement in economic
stability during the post-World War II period. The figures in table 4 show that there has been a substantial
decrease in the average monthly changes during recessions
and expansions. Thus, the average monthly decline during
all contractions covered was -1.33 percent compared to
-0.70 percent in the four contractions since 1948, while



Contraction and expansion
(peak from previous peak)

the average monthly rises during the corresponding expansions were +1.10 percent and +0.73 percent, respectively. Note, also, that the average for the recent expansions has been very similar to that for the recent
contractions. As can be seen in table 5, there have been
other business cycles in which the average rates of contraction or expansion were about the same as those since
1948, but the recorded history of business cycles does not
show an earlier sequence of four or even three business
cycles with such small average monthly changes.
2. The four business cycles since 1948 have also been
more similar to each other than the five cycles from 1920
to 1943 and the five cycles from 1903 to 1920, as can be
seen in the "standard deviation" columns of table 4.
Furthermore, the rates of advance during expansions have
been consistently more nearly uniform than the rates of
decline during contractions. Note, however, that while the
four business cycles since 1948 have not been more similar
than the three cycles from 1892 to 1903, the average
monthly changes in the early period, especially during
contractions, were larger.
3. The average rate of decline during the 1960-61
recession was the smallest on record and the average
rate of advance during the current expansion, next to the
smallest. These rates can be seen in table 5 which shows
the figures for each business cycle since 1892.
An incidental advantage of the greater stability and uniformity is that it has been easier to make good forecasts of
short-term changes. Also, in view of the greater uniformity
of expansions, better estimates could be made during expansions than contractions.
61

Chart 3.--INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 18 Business Cycles Since 1890
A.--Physical Volume of Business Activity: 1890-1920
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

130

130

120

120

110

D

So

TOO

100

u
c

•

9°

90

80

80

70

J70

0)
Q_

*~ Reference trough dates

*- Reference trough dates
M 11111 111111 M i 1111 1 1 1

-18

-12

-6

0

+6

+12 +18

+24

1 1 1 I I ll I M I I II I I HI I I IN II IN III

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36 +42

+48

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

+48

Months from reference troughs

Source: The Babson index of physical volume of business activity. The Babson index is based on a broader concept of production than the Federal
Reserve index (see chart 3B), but its movements match those of the Federal Reserve index closely* The Babson index includes agricultural marketing,
building and construction contracts, railway freight revenue ton miles, and foreign trade (with the total weight of 22 percent), in addition to mining, manufacturing, and utilities to which the Federal Reserve index is limited. In September 1957, the Babson index was discontinued because it so closely approximated the Federal Reserve index. The figures plotted above are 3-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted series,,




Chart 3.--INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 18 Business Cycles Since 1890-Continued
B.--Total Industrial Production:

1921-64

(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

140

130

120

-2 no
_*
o
a>
Q.

100 -

90
o
CL

80 -

70 L

-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

+18

Months from reference troughs

Source:

+24

+30 +36

+42 +48

-12

-6

+6

0

The Federal Reserve Board index of industrial production. See chart 3A for comparison with the Babson index 0




+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

+48

Months from reference troughs

-* Latest data plotted—September 1964

A few observations on the relations between cyclical
stability and long-term economic growth may be added. How
does the rate of economic growth since 1948 compare with
that in earlier periods? This question is complex and controversial and we can expect, at best, to throw only a little
light on it here.
The measures of cyclical change shown in the tables can
also be used to calculate a rough measure of long-term growth.
The method was to compute the average annual rate of change
over each business cycle with sign taken into account—equivalent to computing the average annual change from peak to
peak. Such measures have the following advantages: They
deal with full business cycles, they are consistent with the
cyclical measures shown in the other tables, and they can be
computed with the war cycles omitted. There are, however,
reasonable questions about the validity of periods selected,
the method and formula used to measure growth, the comparability of the coverage of the production indexes, and
changes in the relative importance of industrial production
over the period covered. For these reasons, only rough
judgments can be made on the basis of these figures.
As can be seen in table 6, these measures show a slightly
lower rate of growth for the last four cycles, 4.25 percent
compared to 4.65 for the full period. However, if the war
cycles are omitted, the rates are virtually identical; i.e.,
3.35 and 3.36, respectively. It is also interesting to note
that the growth rate during the current business cycle, 4.20,
is substantially higher than during the two preceding business
cycles, 2.64 and 2.88, and above the average for the whole
period.

Table 6.-GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SINCE 1891
A. Average Annual Rates of Growth for Each Business Cycle

Average annual
Specific cycle dates
to sign1
Trough

Peak
March 1892
October 1893
.... November 1895
June 1900..
September 1896
July 1903
October 1900
. . . .May 1907
December 1903
March 1910
May 1908
January 1913
January 1911
November 1914
May 1917
March 1919
.... January 1920
February 1920
May 1923
April 1921
March 1927
July 1924
July 1929
November 1927
....May 1937
July 1932
May 1938
. . . .November 1943
July 1948
July 1953
October 1 4
99
April 1954.
February 1957
April 1958 . . . . .... January 1960
..
February 1961
. . . .September 19642
1

As our economy is organized, certain activities frequently
foreshadow changes in the aggregate economic activities
which define the business cycle. For the most part, these
are measures of activities which reflect future production
and employment; for example, new orders are placed,
particularly for machinery and other types of equipment;
contracts are let for the construction of new plants; investments in materials inventories are made and new businesses
are started.
Also, hours of work are adjusted and profit
margins altered. Statistical measures of activities which
foreshadolv turning points in the business cycle are, for
convenience, referred to as "leading series." They often
provide early warning signals of changes in production,
employment, income, and expenditures.
As a group, the leading series came to an early, relatively
low, peak in this current expansion after 17 months, dropped
sharply for a few months, and then started a new rise. This
pattern is brought out in chart 4 which shows cyclical comparisons of a composite index of leading indicators for the
nine business cycles since 1921. The level reached in the
initial rise was not as high, relatively, as that of earlier
post-World War II expansions, and the decline was quickly
arrested. The second rise has been slower but has sustained
itself considerably longer than the earlier one. As a result,
it has brought the leading series composite index to about the
same high relative level as its peaks in the previous post-

64




2

+4.32
+2.04
+7.20
+0.96
+12.84
+6.24
+2.64
+2.88
+4.20

Latest high available.

B. Average Annual Rates of Growth for Groups of Business Cycles

Thus, these data suggest that we have experienced a
substantial improvement in economic stability in recent years
with, at worst, no change in the rate of long-term economic
growth, and that the best performance during this recent
period has taken place in the current business cycle. These
data have implications for economic policy actions as well as
methods of forecasting.
THE LEADING SERIES

Measured from peak to peak.

-0.60
+4.92
+7.68
+6.24
+1.44
+4.32
+5.88
+2.52

Business cycle groups

Average change with
regard to sign
(annual rates)
All cycles War cycles
omitted1

3
5
5
4

17 cycles ( 8 2 1 6 )
19-94
cycles (1892-1903)
cycles (1903-1920)
cycles ( 9 0 1 4 )
12-93
cycles ( 9 8 1 6 )
14-94
war-tione cycles:

+4.65
+3.88
+4.39
+5.46
+4.25

+3.36
+3.88
+3.86
+2.68
+3.35

1913-17; 1937-43; 1948-53.

World War II expansions. This renewed advance of the
leading indicators, which began in August 1962 and has now
lasted 26 months, has been at a slower rate, compared to
the advances in the postwar expansions and compared to the
initial advance of the current expansion. While peak levels
were typically attained in only about 12 months in the
previous post- World War II expansions and about 18 months
in the inter war expansions, the rise in the current expansion
has already lasted much longer.
Among the individual leading series, new orders, profits,
stock prices, and hours worked, as well as materials prices,
were all, in October, at about the highest levels of this expansion, (See chart 5 on corporate profits after taxes.) The
rate of inventory change rose during the recovery period,
and has been maintained at a fairly steady pace and moderate
level for the past 2 years. In September more longer-term
commitments for production materials were being made and
deliveries were slower than at any previous time in this expansion. These movements are in contrast with the behavior
of these series in most earlier expansions when peak levels
were reached quickly and followed by protracted declines.

Chart 4.--COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING SERIES-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 9 Most Recent Expansions
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

1921-40 expansions compared with

1949-60 expansions
compared with
expansion
beginning in 1961

Reference trough dates

expansion beginning in 1961
1927-29

X,

110.r

110

Reference peak levels

0

u

100 S

90
Reference peak levels

Reference trough dates
ii i n i l i ' i i i l i i i i i l t ii . . 1 1

-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference troughs

-* Latest data plotted-September 1964




+24

+30 +36

+42

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

ill II nil
+36 +42

Months from reference troughs

+48

Chart 5.--CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 9 Most Recent Expansions
(Alined at reference trough dates; first values plotted are for previous peak dates. Data in this chart are plotted to absolute vertical scales
in contrast to other charts where the data are shown as percentages of previous peak levels. • Indicates reference peak dates of expansions)

I

1949-60 expansions
compared with expansion

1921-38 expansions

35

beginning in 1961

1961-*

30

25

20

+ 10

1949-53
1927-29

S

15

1924-26

-10

0
1933-37

Reference trough dates

-5 L

I n i nl i ii ii li ii 1 1 1 n n i li i ii il 11 ii 1 1 1 1 nil i

n In i
-42

<

.36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

+48

Months from reference troughs

*Latest data plotted-3rd quarter 1964.
2

Source: Harold Barger, Outlay and Income in the U.S., 1921-1938, table 28, appendix B.
Data for latest years of 1938-43 expansion are not available.
Source: Office of Business Economics, Department of Commerce.




I ll III
-12

Reference trough dates

l 1 1 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | I | j 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 III 1 1 1 1 1 1

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36

+42

+48

Thus, a distinguishing feature of the current expansion
has been the unusual behavior of the leading indicators.
In comparing the leading and coincident series, note that
during the post-World War II period, most leading series
had more or less horizontal trends, whereas most coincident
series had strong upward secular trends. The combination
of modest rises and sharp declines in the leading series,
as compared to the coincident series, may be attributable,
to some extent, to secular rather than cyclical forces.
LAGGING SERIES
The causal role of the lagging indicators in business
fluctuations is sometimes overlooked because of their
sluggish reaction to economic change, but they are significant
in the cyclical process.
Several of the lagging series measure business costs,
such as labor cost per unit of output and the cost of money.
Other laggers, such as consumer installment debt and
inventories, also measure costs in part, though they reflect
business risks and other factors as well.
Business costs have, in the past, typically continued to
decline after a recession ended; they have turned up only
when production and employment have already been rising
for some months. Similarly, costs have continued to rise
for a while after production and employment have reached
their expansion peaks. Such costs play an important causal
role in the cumulative process of expansion and its reversal,
with their principal immediate effects upon the leading, rather
than the coinciding series. Thus, we may look to the lagging
series for early warning signals of changes in the movements
of the leading indicators. For example, during advanced
stages of expansion the encroachment of costs upon prices
usually results in diminished profit margins. Somewhat
later, as rates of profits decline, there is a resultant
deterioration in incentives to invest. Hence, one of the "preconditions'* for a general decline in business activity has
usually been a significant rise in these lagging indicators.
This phenomenon is merely a more technical version of the
familiar observation that the creation of "excesses" during
expansions tends to bring them to an early end.
The composite index of the lagging series presented in
chart 6 has risen only modestly, but evenly, in the current
expansion. In comparison with the other post-World War II
expansions, the index of the lagging series has risen more
relatively during the current expansion than during that of
only 1958-60; if the comparison is made for the period corresponding to the closing stages of the 1958-60 expansion, the
current expansion rose relatively less than even that one.
Labor costs per unit of output in manufacturing (chart 7),
declined during the first 6 months of the current expansion
rose modestly during the next year of expansion, declined
unevenly until May 1964, and rose a little since. They are,
however, still well below the level of the.previous business
cycle peak in May 1960. Interest rates are also below their
previous peak levels. The bank rate on short-term business
loans has not risen appreciably above the low level reached
during the 1960 recession (chart 8). Mortgage yields continued to decline during the first 26 months of the current
expansion and have remained more or less constant during
the last 17 months.
While other lagging series, consumer debt (chart 9) and
inventories (not shown here), have risen in the current
expansion, their rate of rise has been less rapid than that of
most previous expansions.



Thus, a second striking feature of the current expansion
is the slow response of the lagging indicators, and especially
the maintenance of relatively low-level business costs. The
excesses generally common during the advanced stages of
previous postwar expansions have not yet appeared.
PRICES
A third distinguishing feature of this expansion has been
the behavior of prices. Materials prices usually begin to
rise before a recession ends, other wholesale prices at about
the time recession ends, and consumer prices a little later.
In the current expansion, the index of industrial materials
prices was below the previous peak level until recently while
the index of wholesale prices, excluding farm products and
foods (chart 10), has remained almost constant, just slightly
below the previous peak level. Consumer prices have also
risen, but very slowly, and not yet as much, relatively, as
during the 45 months of general business expansion from
1949 to 1953 and the 35 months from 1954 to 1957. However,
they have risen more than during the 25 months from 1958 to
1960.
During the 1950's prices rose significantly. With one
exception, 1927-29, wholesale prices also rose during the
1920's, though the rises were brief. Thus, another outstanding feature of this expansion has been the unusual
stability of prices. It is noteworthy, however, that wholesale prices also remained below previous peak levels during
the expansions of the 1920's and 1930's.
THE FEDERAL CASH BUDGET
There has also been a significant difference in the behavior of the Federal cash surplus or deficit series in this
expansion compared to earlier post-World War II expansions
(chart 11). In this expansion, the deficit has been maintained
at the fairly constant level of an annual rate of about -5 billion.
This level compares with substantial fluctuations from deficit
to surplus in the preceding expansions. There were sharp
movements from deficit to surplus positions in 1950-51 and
again in 1952. From 1954 to 1956, there was a steady rise
from deficit to a fairly large surplus with the peak coming in
the spring of 1956. A sharp decline in the surplus then took
place and the budget was virtually in balance during the first
half of 1957 just before the recession got underway. During
the 1958-60 expansion, the deficit increased steadily until the
beginning of 1959 when a rapid decrease in the deficit began,
resulting in a surplus early in 1960. Finally, a new decline
in the surplus began just about the time the 1960-61 recession
got underway. Thus, the current expansion is the only one
during the post-World War II period in which an uninterrupted
deficit position prevailed.
MONEY SUPPLY AND OTHER FINANCIAL INDICATORS

Another important difference appears in the behavior of
the rate of change in the money supply during this expansion,
as compared to the earlier post-World War II expansions
(chart 11). In two of the previous post-World War II expansions (1954-57 and 1958-60), the rate of change in the
money supply began to drop fairly early—within 6 months
after the previous recession came to an end. Both declines
continued until just before or after a new recession began.
In the current expansion, a decline did indeed start at the
beginning of 1962—about a year after the expansion started—
and it continued until the late summer of that year. The
decline was followed, however, by a rise to a level slightly
above that from which the decline had begun, and the rate of
change has remained at about this level with some minor
fluctuations for about a year and a half. It is interesting to
67

Chart 6.-COMPOSITE INDEX OF LAGGING SERIES-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 6 Most Recent Expansions
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

1949-60 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

1933-40 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

180

160

140 -£
1954-57

'

.•••'

120

o

s
o
k.
0)

a.

100
Reference peak levels

t

i ii i i Ii iI i t I t i i i i I i i i t i I i i i i i Ii i i i i I r i t i 1 I l i Il t I

111 r 111 I i i 11 i I 11 i i i I i i M i I i i i M I i i i i i

-42

-36

-30

-24 -18

-12

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference troughs

Latest data plotted—August 1964




Reference trough dates

+24

+30

+36

+42 +48

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

Months from reference troughs

+42

+48

Chart 7.--LABOR COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT, MANUFACTURING-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 9 Most Recent Expansions
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

1921-41 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

1949-60 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961
Reference trough dates

120r

no
_
o
o
a

Reference peak levels

100 -

tt
u
c

90 -

80'-

70 L

-42

-36

-30

I,,,,,I
-24 -18

t,,,,,l
-12
-6

0

I,.,,.!,,,. , ! . . , , , {
+6 +12 +18 +24

Months from reference troughs

Latest data plotted— September 1964




t
+30

t.,.i.l...,.l
+36 +42 +48

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18 +24

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36 +42

+48

Chart 8.--BANK RATES ON SHORT-TERM BUSINESS LOANS-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 9 Most Recent Expansions
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)
I
1949-60 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

1921-40 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

140

1949-53

130 JjJ

i
120

t
o.
u
I

no ^

\

£

100 "

90

1958-60
Reference peak levels

-Reference trough dates

70 L

ill

-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference troughs

^"Latest data plotted--3rd quarter 1964




+24 +30 +36 +42 +48

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

ill
+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36 +42

+48

Chart 9.--CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 6 Most Recent Expansions
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

I
1933-42 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

«

1949-60 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

Reference trough dotes

140 r
220
200

120

«
180 1
100
160

140

o

t 80
a
CL

120 ,

J

60

S

Reference peak levels

Reference trough dates

-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18 +24

Months from reference troughs

* Latest data plotted—August 1964




+30

+36 +42

+48

-12

-6

0

+6

+12 +18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36 +42

+48

100

Chart 10.--WHOLESALE PRICES EXCEPT FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 9 Most Recent Expansions
(Measured from reference peak levels and reference trough dates. • Indicates reference peak date for the expansion)

1921-40 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

I
1949-60 expansions^
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

Reference trough dates

120-=
1954-57

1949-53

no

o
0)
a.

Reference peak levels

100 ^
*o

o

Reference peak levels

•*—' Reference trough dates
I

-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

+6

),..,,!

+ 12 +18

Months from reference troughs
"* Latest data plotted-September 1964




ill

l,.,.,l,,,,,l.l!lllllJ,lJ

+24+30

+36

+42 +43

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

il.

+18 +24

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36

+42 +48

90

D_

Chart 11.-TWO FINANCIAL INDICATORS-Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns for 4 Most Recent Expansions
(Alined at reference trough dates; first values plotted are for previous peak dates. Data in this chart are plotted to absolute vertical scales in
contrast to other charts where the data are shown as percentages of previous peak levels. • Indicates reference peak dates of expansions)
A.--Federal Cash Surplus or Deficit

(9-month moving average)

1949-60 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

B.—Change in Total U.S. Money Supply (9-month moving average)

1949-60 expansions
compared with expansion
beginning in 1961

+ 10 r

-+,50

- +.25

0)

a.

c
o
= -5

-J-.25

CO

-10

-15

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs
N
*Latestdato plotted-September 1964
CJ



+36

+42

+48

-12

-6

0

+6

+12+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

+36

+42

+48

note that the decline in the money-supply rate of change in
1962 was more or less coincident with the decline of the leading indicators as a group and, hence, preceded the 1962
retardation in aggregate coincident activity. Thus, with the
exception of the dip in 1962, the rate of change in the money
supply has been maintained at a high level for a longer period
in this than in the preceding expansions, except perhaps that
for 1949-53.
It has already been pointed out that the interest rate on
short-term business loans declined during the 1960-61 recession and has since remained constant at a level well
below the previous peak. Other interest rates also declined
during the recession, but the usual rises during the recovery
stage did not take place or were shortlived. Mortgage yields
and municipal bond yields are still below the levels at the
1961 trough, corporate bond yields are at about the same
level, and Treasury bond yields only slightly above. Only
the Treasury bill rate has risen appreciably above the
previous trough level. In contrast interest rates rose substantially during all the other expansions since 1949,
Free reserves have been declining slowly since the
current expansion began, but remain positive. They were
negative during the advanced stages of the previous postWorld War II expansions.
Although the consumer debt has risen only moderately
relative to most previous expansions, total private borrowings have risen relatively more as a result of sharp rises
in business loans.
THE 1962 RETARDATION
The current expansion experienced a retardation in
aggregate economic activity which took place after 17 months
and lasted 6 months, from July 1962 to January 1963. This
retardation was preceded by a sharp decline in the leading
indicators.
The behavior of the leading indicators in 1962 raises the
question: Why was the decline then followed by a retardation
in the coincident series rather than a recession? A great
deal of attention was given to this decline at the time it
developed and the use of indicators in business cycle forecasting has been criticized because a recession did not
follow. It is well worth asking what circumstances led up
to the 1962 development, partly to aid in understanding the
course of this expansion and partly to see whether it points
to a serious limitation on the use of the indicators.
Declines in the leading series are often followed by
recession, but sometimes they are followed by minor setbacks or only retardations of expansion. This was recognized on the basis of the earlier experience, before the
1962 episode occurred. For example, in 1957, Frank A.
Morris wrote, "There is no questioning the fact that the
sensitivity of the leading series to a leveling-off period in
the economy places the burden on the user of the indicators
of distinguishing between modest adjustment periods and
major cyclical movements."2
The leading series represent decisions that affect future
production and employment. Thus, declines in new orders
and new business formation reflect decisions that may re2
Frank A. Morris, "The Predictive Value of the National
Bureau's Leading Indicators," Ch. 4, Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, Editor, National Bureau of
Economic Research, New York, 1961. See also p.79, ibd.

74




suit in reductions in employment and production some months
later. On the other hand, coinciders represent decisions
that pertain more immediately to current production, sales,
prices, employment, and income.
There is a feedback from decisions involving future production to decisions involving current production, and vice
versa. During the interval when a cyclical decline in the
leading series is evident but the coincident series are still
rising, unfavorable decisions with respect to future activity
may, to some extent, be offset by the favorable decisions
with respect to current production. Thus as long as there
are widespread rises in production, sales, prices, incomes,
and employment, business sentiment will tend to remain relatively favorable. Once aggregate economic activity begins
to decline, however, the backlog of unfavorable decisions
with respect to future activity is supplemented by the
practical and psychological effects of declines in production,
sales, employment, incomes, and prices. The result is an
acceleration of the cumulative forces of the business cycle.
Consequently, the period immediately after the leading
indicators shows a clearly defined downward trend is critical
for business cycle policy actions. This is the most opportune
time to neutralize the effects of adverse decisions regarding
future activity. If appropriate actions are taken then, relatively few may be required. If they are not taken at that
time, massive action to reverse the prevailing trends may be
necessary later.
A review of the sequence in which the leading indicators
declined in 1962 shows that some declines got under way in
advance of the steel price controversy in April and the sharp
drop in the stock market in May (table 7). Thus profit
margins, investment in materials inventories, new incorporations, sensitive materials prices, and stock prices began
to decline during the winter of 1961-62. The sensitive employment indicators, new orders for machinery and equipment, and commercial and industrial construction contracts
reached highs mainly in March or April. Some indicators,
such as corporate profits, did not decline at all. As a group,
the complex of leading activities appear to have reached a
peak in February.
It should be noted, however, that the typical pattern in
the leading indicators, during periods of expansion, consists
of some declines along with many rises. It may very well
have been the case that the declines in the leading indicators
before April were random and that the difficulties which
developed in 1962 were, in fact, brought on by the steel price
controversy and the stock market decline the next month.
The 1962 decline in the leaders was also of about the same
magnitude as those which occurred in advance of the postWorld War II recessions. The widespread nature of this
decline and its magnitude suggested that it was cyclical. The
fact that it was not accompanied by a simultaneous decline
in the coincident indicators and lagging indicators, which is
to be expected when the cause is an irregular event,
supported this view. In the absence of countervailing forces,
a decline in aggregate economic activity might have been
expected to follow. One may appropriately ask, therefore,
why a recession did not take place.
In contrast to the performance of the leading indicators
around recessions, the 1962 decline was short lived; it was
arrested after only about 6 months. The low may be dated
in August, though during the period from July to November
1962, most of the leading indicators fluctuated about a
horizontal or slightly rising level. In December, the in-

Table /.-CHRONOLOGICAL DATES OF 1962 HIGHS FOR 30 LEADING SERIES
Series number and title

High points
1961

2.
3.
IS.
22.
13.
31.

Accession rate, manufacturing
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sale, manufacturing corporations
Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries
Number of new business incorporations
Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total

October
October
4th Quarter
4th Quarter
November
November

14.
17.
19.
25.
20.

Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
Price per unit of labor cost index, manufacturing
Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Change in book value, manufacturers! inventories of purchased materials

23.
37.
21.
4.
6.
10.

Index of industrial materials prices
Percent reporting higher inventories of purchased materials, NAPA
Change in business inventories, after valuation adjustment, all industries
Persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
Value of manufacturers! new orders, durable goods industries
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment

January
January
1st Quarter
February
February
February

15.
26.
32..
5.
9.
1.

Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over (inverted)
Buying policy, production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or more
Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
Average weekly initial claims for State unemployment insurance (inverted)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing

February
February
February
March
March
April

24.
30.
7.
11.
12.
16.
29.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
New private nonfarm housing starts
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations
Net change in number of operating businesses
Corporate profits after taxes
Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits

<

December
December
December
December
December
1962

•.. April
May
nsc
nsc
nsc
nsc
nsc

nsc No subcycle.
creases were more vigorous and they continued through 1963
and beyond. Earlier periods are in sharp contrast; declines
of the leaders not only took place in advance of recession, but
then continued for many months. Nevertheless, until the late
autumn of 1962 the behavior was similar to that which preceded earlier recessions.
The principal factors which can be advanced to explain
the arrest of the decline and the subsequent rise in the
leading indicators are (1) the threat of a steel strike in 1963,
(2) Government counter-cyclical policy actions, (3) the Cuban
crisis, and (4) the continuing strength of consumer demand.
First, the prospect of a steel strike in the background was
favorable to expansion.
Second, various Government measures were helpful. They
consisted of the accelerated issuance of the Government
depreciation guidelines, the passage of the tax credit for
plant and equipment investment, the acceleration in Government spending (as shown by the Federal cash budget) in the
fourth quarter of 1962, the increase in the money supply and,
finally, the maintenance of interest rates at relatively low
levels. The frequent assurances in the summer and autumn
of 1962, by the President and other Government officials,
of sympathetic treatment for the business community and the
announced plan for seeking a tax reduction also were helpful.
Third, the Cuban crisis at the end of October contributed
to the forces of expansion at a critical period. The slight



rise in prices that resulted and the change in public sentiment
provided additional stimulants.
Finally, the continued rise in consumer expenditures was
favorable to continued expansion. Typically, consumer expenditures rise until output reaches a peak and they sometimes continue to rise for a short period after the peak in
output. In the light of this record, one should ask whether
the continued rise in consumer expenditures was an independent factor promoting expansion in 1962, or whether
it merely reflected the Government actions. Automobiles
may, however, be on a separate footing from other consumer
expenditures. The sharp increase in automobile sales
starting in the first 10 days of October suggests that it may
have been an autonomous factor.
These factors
situation to shift
The appropriate
significant in this

may have contributed enough in a delicate
the balance from recession to expansion.
timing of these actions was probably more
instance than their magnitude.

The behavior of the lagging indicators during this period
is also noteworthy. The moderation of the increases in
these series, to which attention has been drawn earlier,
formed part of the background in which the decline in the
leading indicators took place. Unit labor costs, inventories,
the consumer debt, and mortgage yields rose earlier in the
expansion, but the increases were modest and in most cases
the previous high levels had not been exceeded.
75

Chart 12.--SENSITIVE COINCIDENT INDICATORS IN THE 1962 RETARDATION
(Area within shaded bars represents retardation in aggregate economic activity. Latest data plotted are for September)

220

Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (percent—inverted scale)

Composite index of the 4
coincident series, below

30

40

200

50

180

130

Help-wanted advertising
(index: 1957-59=100)
Employees in nonagricultural establishments,
except government (millions)

120

50
110

48
46

100

135
130

Industrial production
(index: 1957-59=100)

125
120
130

income
manufacturing
construction

Diffusion index of nonagricultural
employment (6-month spans)

100

125

75
120

50

115
17

25

Sales of retail stores,
except food (bil. doh)

16
0

Diffusion index of industrial
production (6-month spans)

15

100

75

14

50
13
25
1961

76




1962

1963

1964

1961

1962

1963

1964

Table 8.-CHRONOLOGICAL DATES OF 1962 LOWS FOR 30 LEADING SERIES
Series number and title

Low points
1962
March
May
June
June
June
July

25.
26.
17.
19.
32.
9.

Change in manufacturers' -unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Buying policy, production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or more
Price per unit of labor cost index, manufacturing
Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings

20.
1.
3.
24.
6.
10.

Change in "book value, manufacturers! inventories of purchased materials
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
Value of manufacturersf new orders, durable goods industries
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment

23.
37.
14.
31.
5.
30.

Index of industrial materials prices
Percent reporting higher inventories of purchased materials, NAPA.
Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
Average weekly initial claims for State unemployment insurance (inverted)
Nonagricultural placements, all industries

2.
4.
13.
15.
18.
22.

Accession rate, manufacturing
Persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
Number of new business incorporations
Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over (inverted)
Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations
Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all Industries

September
September
October
November
December
December
1963
January
January
January
January
1st Quarter
1st Quarter

21.
7.
11.
12.
16.
29.

Change in business inventories after value adjustment, all industries
New pcrivate nonfarm housing starts
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations
Net change in number of operating business
Corporate profits after taxes
Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits

2nd Quarter
nsc
nsc
nsc
nsc
nsc

nsc

,

,

July
August
August
August
September
September

No subcycle.

Although the broadest indicators of aggregate economic
activity—GNP in current dollars, employment in nonagricultural establishments, and retail sales—all rose
throughout 1962, other coincident series reflected, in the
second half of the year, the earlier decline in the leading
indicators. As can be seen in chart 12, industrial production,
nonagricultural employment (excluding government), and
labor income all leveled off from July to December. The
total unemployment rate, the unemployment rate of married
men, and the insured unemployment rate all showed some
rises; these rises were especially significant because they
occurred before the normal recovery declines in unemployment had taken place.
It is clear from this statistical record that there was no
recession in 1962; i.e., there was no decline in the complex
of activities which have in the past been used to define the
business cycle. For this reason no recession will be dated
then. But some important coincident activities leveled off
and others showed some actual declines. The net effect was
a retardation in aggregate economic activity which lasted
about 6 months, from July 1962 to January 1963.
There have been retardations in other expansions. Indeed
such movements seem to be more or less typical of expansions since the latter half of the 19th century. For example,
there were retardations in the expansions of 1888-90,1894-95,
1897-99, 1924-26, and 1933-37. There also were retardations
during other recent expansions, specifically those of 1949-53
and 1954-57. Indeed this pattern has been so common that



Wesley C. Mitchell concluded that the typical course of an
expansion is a vigorous rise during the first stage, a pause
during the middle stage, and another advance (but at a slower
rate than in the first stage) at the end.
As shown in table 1, the 1949-53 expansion lasted 45
months and the 1954-57 expansion, 35 months. It is suggestive that the retardation during the 1949-53 expansion was
of longer duration than that which occurred in the 1954-57
expansion. It may be true that each such retardation had
a role in prolonging the period of advance. Indeed there are
some who argue that the recession of 1960-61 was so mild
and of such brief duration that it differed little from a retardation, and that the present expansion can be dated as beginning
in April 1958. Under the NBER method of identifying business cycle turning points, however, the movement from May
1960 to February 1961 is classified as a recession because
there was an absolute, extended, and widespread decline in
economic activity, at least as large in magnitude as in some
other instances recognized as recessions. While movements
during which aggregate activity advances less rapidly but
does not decline are classified as retardations, the same
kinds of forces of revival may be present in all these
situations though to different degrees. Such developments
appear to have favorable effects upon the duration of the expansions.
Another question raised about developments in 1962 is
whether the leading indicators foreshadowed the subsequent
rise in aggregate economic activity. Taken as a group, the
77

leading indicators showed significant rises in the fall of 1962
and these rises continued during the first half of 1963.
Although these rises were small, it became clearer each
month after November 1962 that an advance in aggregate
economic activity, rather than a contraction, was likely
(table 8). The diffusion indexes, particularly those for the
leading indicators, began to rise much earlier. The trough
in the diffusion indexes for the leading indicators, taken as a
group, came in July 1962. And they reached a significantly
higher level by October. The comprehensive diffusion
indexes of the coincident series rose sharply during the first
half of 1963 after falling to a trough at the end of 1962. However, these indexes had to be interpreted with caution, partly
because of their usual erratic behavior (similar rises have
occurred before recession periods only to be followed by
declines, for example, 1956-57) and partly because these
improvements were dominated by stock prices and materials
prices. Both of these series have had very good records of
leading the business cycle in the past. Nevertheless, the
rise in stock prices was at first viewed suspiciously as a
rebound from the very drastic decline earlier in the year;
i.e., as a response to an overly extreme movement earlier.
The rise in materials prices might also have proved temporary because to some extent it was associated with the
Cuban crisis, an exogenous event.
In alerting the Government to the needs of the times, it
may eventually be concluded that in 1962 the early warning
signals provided by the leading indicators played the role
that their originators intended them for—to signal recessionary tendencies sufficiently in advance so that appropriate
actions can be taken to avert a substantial decline in aggregate
economic activity.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
There can be no doubt from this review of the record of
the current expansion that it has differed in several important
respects from its predecessors. First, the economic processes which reflect excesses, such as costs and inventories,
have held to a relatively favorable level throughout. Similarly, wholesale prices have been stable. The principal
fiscal and monetary series—the deficit in the budget, interest
rates, and the rate of change in the money supply—have all
held steady. Finally, a threatened recession in 1962 was
averted partly by fortuitous events and partly by Government counter-cyclical policy. The retardation which did
occur had favorable effects upon the later expansion in the
whole economy. These factors no doubt had an important
role in sustaining the advance over such a long period.
Business, labor, and Government policy all influenced the
movements of the current expansion shown by the statistical
series. Thus, business has been cautious in making shortterm commitments, as reflected by the rate of change in
inventories, which has been more or less constant at a
moderate level over the past year and a half or so. Similarly,
longer-term commitments have, again until recently, been
conservative. Business has also shown some constraint
in holding prices steady, particularly prices of manufactured
goods. Restraint on the part of labor in seeking wage increases is also indicated by the fact that labor costs per
unit of output have not risen much. Both labor and business
management contributed to the rises in productivity which
have played a large part in these favorable developments.
Of course, business and labor attitudes were influenced by
the existence of ample industrial capacity, relatively high
unemployment levels, and vigorous foreign competition. The
contribution of Government monetary and fiscal policy can
be seen in the levels maintained by various financial indicators.
78




The decrease in the amplitude of the post-World War II
cycles and the increase in the duration of the expansions,
compared to the interwar cycles, has been attributed to many
factors: Built-in Government stabilizers (the increase in
income taxes and the pay-as-you-go method of paying them,
unemployment insurance, and old-age and survivors' insurance), the spread of private pension programs, the relative
growth of the service and trade industries, stabilization of
corporate dividends, and so on. At least to some extent,
however, the further improvement in the cyclical performance
during the current expansion is widely believed to be due to
informed business, labor, and Government policy.
Cyclical fluctuations reflect many complex forces; some
are endogenous and others exogenous to the national economy.
Some we understand fairly well, others we understand
partially, and still others we do not understand at all.
Certain key factors that affect cyclical behavior have been
examined, but not all; for example, the role of the long
(Kuznets) cycle in recent cyclical behavior has not been
considered. But the data shown in this paper do add to the
factual knowledge about this expansion in relation to its
predecessors. I hope that the presentation also adds to our
understanding of the cyclical process, and in this way to
our powers of forecasting future economic trends.
SUMMARY
Everyone who follows business conditions knows that the
current expansion is one of the longest and strongest in
American history. At 44 months in October, the current
expansion is the second longest peacetime expansion. The
rise relative to previous peak levels was the largest since
World War I for most measures of aggregate economic
activity. There are some weak spots: Notably, the total
unemployment rate has been running at a higher level than is
generally acceptable, and the persistent balance of payments
gap has not been closed. All things considered, however, it
is difficult to point to a previous expansion which represents
a better performance.
Why has this latest expansion done so well? An intensive
search for an answer to this question is called for. While
each business cycle adds to our knowledge about systematic
economic fluctuations, the lessons of this expansion are
especially likely to contribute to developing policy programs
and techniques for sustaining this and future expansions.
This paper represents the beginning of a study of this
question. The approach is to compare the cyclical patterns
of this expansion with those of its predecessors, as revealed
by strategic cyclical indicators with different timing—leading,
coincident, and lagging. Although primarily concerned with
the period from 1921 to date, this study also considers the
nine business cycles in industrial production from 1891
to 1921.
This investigation also brings into clear focus the dramatic
improvement in economic stability since 1948, especially as
compared to the period of the 1920's and 1930's. Thus the
improvement shown by the current expansion reflects a further
extension of a post-World War II pattern of mild declines
followed by moderate but sustained expansions, a pattern substantially different from that of earlier periods of our
economic history. The increasing cyclical stability appears
to have been accompanied by about an equal rate of longterm economic growth.
This investigation also shows that the steady rate of
advance in aggregate economic activity since February 1961
(the trough of the previous recession) has not been very

different, in a broad sense, from that of the three earlier
post-World War II expansions. There have been very significant differences, however, in the patterns of leading and
lagging series. First, the economic processes which reflect
excesses, such as costs and inventories, have held to a relatively favorable level throughout. Similarly, wholesale
prices have been stable. The principal fiscal and monetary
series—the deficit in the budget, interest rates, and the rate
of change in the money supply—have all held relatively
steady. In addition, a threatened recession in 1962 was
averted, partly by Government counter-cyclical policy and
partly by fortuitous events. The retardation which did occur
had favorable effects upon the later expansion in the whole
economy. These factors, no doubt, had an important role
in sustaining the advance over such a long period.
The decrease in the amplitude of the post-World War II
cycles and the increase in the duration of the expansions,
compared to the interwar cycles, has been attributed to many
factors: Built-in Government stabilizers (the increase in
income taxes and the pay-as-you-go method of paying them,
unemployment insurance, and old-age and survivors' insurance), the spread of private pension programs, the
relative growth of the service and trade industries, stabilization of corporate dividends, and so on. The further
improvement in the cyclical performance during the current
expansion is generally believed to be due, at least in part, to
informed business, labor, and Government policy.
SOURCES OF DATA FOR COMPOSITE INDEXES
For a description of the methods of computing composite
indexes and the adjusted rates of change on which they are
based, see appendix A of Signals of Recession and Recovery,
Occasional Paper 77, by Julius Shiskin,
(National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., New York, 1961).




The following series are included:
Leading series. — For 1919-40, 6 series: 1. Average
work-week; 6. New orders, durable manufactures; 7.
Nonfarm housing starts; 9. Commercial and industrial
construction contracts; 13. New business incorporations;
and 19, Standard and Poor's index of stock prices. For
1948-64, 8 series: Series 1, 9, 13, and 19, as above; 24.
New orders for machinery and equipment industries; 29.
New private housing units authorized by Ipcal building
permits; 17. Price-labor cost index; and 23. Spot market
prices of industrial materials.
Coincident series.—For 1919-28, 5 series: 41. Employment in nonagricultural establishments; 47, Index of
industrial production; 51. Bank debits outside NYC;
52. Personal income; and 54. Retail sales. For 1929-40,
6 series: Series 4, 47, 51, 52, 54 (as for 1919-28)and 55.
Index of wholesale prices. For 1948-64, series 4, 47, 51,
52, 54, and the inverted series 43. Unemployment rate.
Lagging series. —For 1929-40 and 1948-64, 3 series:
62. Labor cost per unit of output; 64. Manufacturers'
inventories, total; and 66. Consumer installment debt.
For sources of individual series, see Business Cycle Developments In addition to the sources cited there, the Babson
index of the physical volume of business activity from 1891
to 1920 used in table 3 and chart 3 is published in Babson's
Reports, Inc.; the early retail sales data come from the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Office
of Business Economics of the Department of Commerce; and
the data on GNP in constant dollars for the period prior to
1940 are Barger and Klein data on GNP in 1939 dollars.

79




APPENDIXES
Appexdix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
13. New business incorporations.;
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg..
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
23 . Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus
29. New bldg. permits, private housing....

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

4
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. ' 9 Jan. '38 Jun. -'32 Apr. '28 Jul. '24 Feb. '21
May '61
Jan . ' 61
Feb. f61
Oct. '60
Dec. '60
Nov. '60
Dec. '60

Jun.
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.

Feb. '61
May '61
Feb. '61
lstQ'61
lstQ'61
NSC
Dec. '60
Apr. '61

May '58
Jul. '58
Apr. '58
lstQ'58
lstQ'58
Feb. '58
Apr. '58
Mar. '58

'58
'57
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58

NSC
NSC
Dec,
Sep.
Feb.
Mar.
NA

'53
'53
'54
'54

Aug.
Feb.
May
Jun.
Jun.
Apr.
NA

'9
4
'9
4
'9
4
'-49
'49
'9
4

Sep.
Sep.
NA
Apr.
Jun.
NA
NA

'38 Oct. '32
'39 Dec. '34
•NA
'38 Jun. '32
'38 Jul. '32
NA
NA

Sep. '27
Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
NA
NA

Jul. '24
Jun. '24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun. '24
NA
NA

Mar. '21
Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul. '21
NA
NA

Mar. '33
May '33
Jul. '32
lstQ'33
3rd Q' 32
Mar. '33
Mar. '33
Mar. '33

Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC
4thQ'26
NA
NSC

Jul. '24
NA
Jul. '24
NSC
NSC
2ndQ'24
NA
NSC

Jul. '21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ'21
NA
2ndQ'21
NA
Mar. '22

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments..
43 . Unemployment rate , total
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. .
54. Sales of retail stores

Aug. '54
Sep. '54
Apr. '54
2ndQ'54
2ndQ'54
Mar. '54
Aug. '54
Jan. '54

Oct. ' 9
4
Oct. ' 9
4
Oct. '49
2ndQ'49
2ndQ'49
Oct. '49
Oct. ' 9
4
NSC

Jun. '38
Jun. '38
May '38
2ndQ'38
lstQ'38
May '38
Jun. '38
May '38

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek prod, workers, mfg
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg..
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 . Industrial materials' prices •..
0.
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus
29. New bldg. permits, private housing....
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments..
43 . Unemployment rate , total
47. Industrial production
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50 . GNP in 195^ dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr..
54. Sales of retail stores. . .

Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 NA

Apr. '59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53 NSC
Jun. '60
Apr. '59
May '59
Jul. '59
Nov. '59
Jul. '59
Nov. '58

Mar.
Feb.
Dec.
Jul.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.

Apr. '60
Feb. ' 0
6
Jan. '60
2ndQ'60
2nd Q' 60
NSC
May '60
Apr. '60

Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ'57
3rdQ'57
Aug. '57
Jul. '57
Aug. '57

'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55

NSC
NSC
Feb.
Jan.
Feb.
Feb.
NA

'51
'53
'51
'51

Jun. '53
Jun. '53
Jul. '53
2ndQ'53
2ndQ'53
Oct. '53
Jul. '53
Mar. '53

Mar.
Jul.
Jan.
Jun.
Jan.
Apr.
NA

'6
4
'46
'8
4
'8
4
'48
'48

Sep. ' 8
4
Jan. '48
Jul. '48
4thQ'48
4thQ'48
Qctft ' 8
4
Sep. '48
NSC

Jul.
Dec.
NA
Feb.
Mar.
NA
NA

'37 Jan. '29
'36 Jan. '29
NA
'37 Sep. '29
'37 Mar. '29
NA
NA

Jul. '37
Jul. '37
May '37
3rdQ'37
3rdQ'37
Jun. '37
May '37
Sep. '37

Aug. '29
NA
Jul. '29
3rdQ'29'
3rdQ'29
Aug. '29
Sep. '29
Sep. '29

Sep. '25
Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
NA
NA

Aug. '22
Apr. '23
MA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
NA
NA

Dec. '19
Dec. '19
NA
Jul. '19
Apr. '20
NA
NA

Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2ndQ'26
NA
NSC

Jun. '23
NA
May '23
NSC
NSC
lstQ'24
NA
NSC

Jan. '20
NA
Feb . ' 20
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul. '20

NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.




81

Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(MAY 1964 TO JUNE 1965)

19(35

19<34

Series
May June

4. Temporary layoff, all industries
78.4
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
82 3
13. New business incorporations1
103.0
14. Liabilities of business failures
95.4
15 . Large business failures
99.5
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, rafg..101.0
IB. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2....., 106.3
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1.. 108.7
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
106.8
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products and foods
100.0
6 . Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.... 98.9
2.
81. Consumer prices.
99.7
82. Federal cash payments to public
100.6
$3. Federal cash receipts from public..,.. 119.2
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
83.0
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
88.4
92. Military contract awards in U.S
90.0
3
112. Change , business loans
100
0.
128, Japan, industrial production index.... 100.1

July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

74.4 107.5 L40.0 87.0
84 0
90.5
104 6
95.7
99.1
96.9
I 6 1 105 16 110.5
l!
83 8
105.9
106 1
102.6
101.7

105.2
107.3
100.4
86.1
96.3

90.2

89.0

77.4 88.7 104.5
93.1 99.4 82.4
96.6 95.7 107.5
91.2 93.8 94.8
101.9 103.1 101.1
101.4
•* •
1!
123.7 1 1 6 92.5

98.9

94.8

92.9

92.9

90.3

93.1

99.9
98.0
99.9
102.1
150.1
197.5
143.4
175.2
99.6
99.8

99.9
103.8
100.2
99.8
49.9
101.4
114.0
72.6
98.9
99.9

99.9
100.8
100.0
113.9
114.4
79.6
92.3
87.5
98,5
96.5

99.8
98.2
100.1
94.9
123.9
99.1
99.6
103,5
99.3
99.3

100
0.
97.2
101
0.
107.1
46.2
97.9
105.8
101.1
99 9
99.6

100
0.
99,0
100.1
100.3
102,0
96.0
91,5
79 A
101 2
99.2

Jan.

Feb. Mar.

94.6 157.0 105.5

137.4 1 4 9
4.
101.8 105.2
77 7 105.6
1.
86.0 1 2 9
97.8 98.1
•* •
83.6 80.1

172
0.
91.9
104 1
114.1
99.5
95.2
76.9

Apr. May

June

77.6

73.8

82.3
103.1
95.7
99.5
101.1
106,3
104*. 4 108.2

83.8
105.8
106.6
102.3
101,7

91.6

87.4

92.7
115.6
100 2
112.0
100
0.
..
.
93.1

91.8
107.3
147
0.
113.3
100.4

111.1

95.1 104.9 108.6 108.2 113.4 107.1 99.0

100.1
102.4
99.9
98.4
106.4
93.3
91.8
92.1
102.0
102.1

100.2
102.3
99.9
95.2
69.2
86.3
92.8
100.6
100 6
94.0

100.0
100.5
99,9
94.4
113,9
97.5
88.6
88.9
99 7
102.1

99.9
99.8
99.9
93.3
125.0
78.6
96.3
125.1
103
0.
108.1

99.9
99.3
99.8
99.8
79.6
87.9
95.8
84.7
103
0.
99.5

100,0
98.9
99.7
100.4
119.3
83.9
88.6
90.2
100
0.
100.1

99.9
98.0
99.9
101.9
150.0
197.9
143.1
171.9
99.6
99.8

NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency
will be substituted whenever they are published.
1

Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
2




INDEX
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES

(Page numbers)

Series
number1

Charts

1

1...
2...
3...
4.
..
5...
6-...
7.
..
9.
..

10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11

1..
0.
11...
12...
13...
14...
15...
16...
1..
7.
1..
8.
19...

11
11
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
13

20...
21...
22...
23...
2..
4.
25...
26...
2..
9..

14
14
13
14
11
14
14
11

30...
31...
32...
37...

10
14
14
14

4..
0.
41...
42...
43...
45...
46...
4..
7.
4..
9.

15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16

50...
51...
52...
53...
54...
55...
57...
58...

16
17
17
17
17
17
16

61...
62...
6..
4.
65...
66...
67...
68...

18
18
18
18
18
18
18

2

42

Appendixes

Tables

52

1

2

3

4

5

72

82

92

A

B

C2

D

F

E2
Page

51

56

••
51
50

56
55

50

52

57

52

57

53
53

57
56

53
53

56

52
52

57

54
54
54
•-

•54

28
28

29
29
29
29
29
29
29

9
9
9
9
9
9
9

30
30
30
30
30
30
30

58
58
58

24
27\
In
27

cococococococo '

55

cototocococococo

51

27
26
26
27
24
27
27
25

cocototo

51

25
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26

tocotocototococo

55

24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25

tocotocococococococo

50

55

totococotocotoco

50

28
28
28
28
29

••

-••

-•
••

••

58
58
58

59
59
59
59
59
59

60

81
••

60

••

81

-.
••

•-

••

••
•-

-••

58
58

59
59

60

58
58

59
59

-60

••

81

58

59

60

••

81

81
..

68
63
66
66
66
64
68
64
66

•-•

•;

58
58

59
59

60
60

••

••

••

58

59

60

81
81
••

81

6-64
6-64
6-64
1-64
12-63
12-63
6-64
6-64

66
65
66
68

10-63
6-64
3-64
6-63

63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64

68
67 68
68
67 66
66
66
67 70
67 68

8-64
12-64
8-64
2-64
3-64
2-64
9-64
8-64

64
63
63
63
63
63
64

67 69
67 69
67 69
66
67 66
69
70
66

8-64
8-64
8-64
10-63
10-63
8-64
8-64
4-64

65
68
66
66
70
70
66

6-64
6-63
6-64
6-64
8-64
8-64
4-64

63
63
63
64
63
64
63

82
82
••

82
82
82
82
82

••

64
63
63
65
63
63
63
65
63
63

59

60

••

81

58

59

60

••

81

59
59

60
60

58
58
58

59
59
59

60

58
58

.•

58

••

••

••

58
58

••

59
59

58
58
58

59
59
59

••

58
58

59
59

-•

-•

••

-•

••

--

-•

•-

••

-•

81
81
••

60
60
60

81
81
81

-•
••

••
••

Issue

11^64
6-64
8-63
11-63
3-64
6-64
6-63
6-64
4-64

64
64
65
66
66
66
65
63

Page

12-64
12-64
12-64
11-63
7-63
5-64
6-64

65
••

Issue

68
68
68
66
66
65
63

63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64

.
.

G

64
63
63
63
63
64
64

82
82

82

82
••

••

"

1
See
2

back cover for series titles and sources.
Page number shown is for December 1964 issue.




83

SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Confinued

Series
number1

1

(page numbers)
Appendixes

Tables

Charts

F
1

2

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

7

8

9

A

B

C2

D

Page

81...
82...
83...
3..
4.
85...
86...
87...
88...
89...

22
19
19
19
20
22
22
22
22

90...
91...
92...
93...
9..
4.
95...
96...
9..
7.
98...
99...

19
19
19
20
22
19
22
22
20
19

10.
1.
111..
112..
113..
14.
1.
115..
116..
117..
118..

20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
21

121..
122..
123..
125..
126..
127..
128..

23
23
23
23
23
23
23

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9.
9

••

••

Dl...
D5...
D6...
Dll..
D19..
D23..
D34..

39
39
39
39
39
39
39

D35..
D36..
D41..
D47. .
D48..
D54..
D58,.
D61..

41
41
40
40
41
40
40
41

64
63
63
65
65
64
64
65

82
82
82

9
9
9
9
9
9
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•"•See back cover for series titles and sources.
Page number shown is for December 1964 issue.

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TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESSCYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series "Q"
indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data ore for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*)
were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics

30. Nonogricultural placements, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the.Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).—Department
of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics

*2. Accession rote, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labof, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).--Departmentof Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Vafue of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*9. Construction contracfs awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
(M).«F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q)— National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower'deliveries (M).—Chicago Purchasing
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M).—National Association
of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagriculturol establishments (M).-Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).--Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rote, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).--Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wonted advertising in newspapers (M).-National Industrial Conference
Board
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses(Q).--Departmentof
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*U Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over(M).-Dun and BradStreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars(Q).-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
*51. Bonk debits outside New York City, 343 centers(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M),-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor,Bureau of Labor Statistics;and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q). -Federal
Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census

*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of
Business Economics

7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment

*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission

20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M).»
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm,after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q).Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).— Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

*66. Consumerinstallmentdebt(EOM).--BoardofGovernors of the Federal Reserve System.
FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).--Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments60 days or longer
(M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census




*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of Labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1954 dollars) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics National Income Division
Continued on reverse

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TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
28 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES

112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

81. Index of consumer prices(M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

113. Net change in consumer installment debt(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Re-

82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts.
Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted seriesbecause of differences in the method
of seasonal adjustment.

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment

serve System

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds(M).--Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
83. Federal cash receipts from the public(M).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts.
Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method
of seasonal adjustment.

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).--First National City Bank of
New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer; no seasonal ad-

84. Federol cash surplus or deficit (M).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts.
Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method
of seasonal adjustment.

justment
MS. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-Federal Housing Administration; HO
seasonal adjustment

85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total {M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)(M).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q).--Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index
of industrial production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Central Statistical OffiCC(London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).»Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).--Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)

90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).--Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

126. France, index of industrial production (M).--Statistical Office (Paris)

91. Defense Department obligations, total {M).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

127. Italy, index of industrial production(M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development

92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms {M).--Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).--Board Of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment

128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).--Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by compiler and Bureau of the Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).--See series 47.

94. Index of construction controcts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation
DIFFUSION INDEXES

95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account(Q).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency)and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products*(M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

The "D"
sponding
sources.
for other

preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and correbusiness cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same
See sources aboveforDl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, U54,and D61. Sources
diffusion indexes are as follows:

D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustmentofseries components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted
by National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment

110. Total funds raised by private nonfrnancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System

D48. Freight corloadings(Q).--Association of American Railroads;no seasonal adjustment

111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Q).—Board of Governors Of the
Federal Reserve System

D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census