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JANUARY 1963

Business

Cycle

Developments




DATA THROUGH DECEMBER

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Business

Cycle

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary

Developments
JANUARY 1963
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Sea mm on, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
CONRAD SHAMEL, Acting Public Information Officer

Offfc* of th«- ChUf Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief

Series ESI No. 63-1

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CONTENTS
Page
Important Features and Changes for This Issue

ii

Introduction
Organization and Content of the Report
Descriptions and Procedures
How to Read the Time Series Charts

1
1
1
4

i

*

Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1. —Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January I960 to Present

5
10
13
14
17
19

Analytical Measures
Table 2. —Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared
With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes—Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic Activities: January I960
to Present .
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January
I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified Time Spans and Percent of
Series Rising: July I960 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers , Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks.
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices,
.
E. (D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. (D47) Index of industrial Production
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores

29
31
32
33
34
35
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Cyclical Patterns

Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
:
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the
Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific P^ak Levels and Percent Change from Specific Trough
Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most
Recent Expansions

47
52
56
57
58

Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in
the United States: 1854 to 1961.
Appendix B. — Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for Monthly and
Quarterly Business Cycle Series . .
Appendix D. -—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Adjusted by
Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1961 to December 1962)
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of
Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C




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60
61
62
65
6(

Price 40 ce

IMPORTANT FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of
business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize
the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve
additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other
series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in
this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows:
Consumer installment debt (series 66) has been revised back to July 1955
by the source agency to allow for a new seasonal adjustment and the adjustment
of two components to the June I960 benchmark.

BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration with the
National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for much of the early research in this field. The book, "Signals of Recession and Recovery, f t contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical trends, a more
detailed description of the indicators and measures used, and additional historical data.
This book was issued as Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261 Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . ( 2 0 7 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators, appear
in this book.




Business Cycle Developments
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification .of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected^
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THE REPORT
Three types of data are shown in this report.
They are as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1). —Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.




Analytical measure s (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6). —
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( 1 ) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7-9). —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
DESCRIPTIONS AND PROCEDURES
Business Cycle Series
The three major groups of series are those with
a fairly consistent timing relation to the business
cycle.
They are grouped, in accordance with the
NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. Additional series
are also included for a more complete coverage of
the national economy. The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators . — Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of tKese series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators. — About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales.1 For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
Lagging Indicators . — Some series , such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series. — About 20 additional U.S. series
with business cycle significance are also shown.
Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus
or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for
various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several
countries which have important trade relations with
the United States are presented.

Descriptions and Procedures
Seosonol Adjustments

Official seasonally adjusted data are used in
report wherever they are available. However , for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report.
These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Nximber of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
25, Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders,
durable goods industries
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55, Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing
81 . Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84 . Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92 . Military prime contract awards to U.S .
business firms
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for the se se rie s were de veloped by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER, The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D . Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted
for the series mentioned above whenever they are
published,
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical higher low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Charts
Time series line charts (charts 1-3) are used to
show the cyclical timing and pattern of each series.
Since various! ratio and arithmetic scales are used,
rates of change are not comparable except for those
series having the same scale. See the diagram,
page 4, for additional help in using the charts.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of
business cycle contraction between reference dates




for peaks ("P"—beginnings of shaded areas) and
troughs ("T"—ends of shaded areas). The shading
for a recession period will be entered only after a
trough has been designated.
Analytical Measures of Current Change

Four kinds of analytical measures are presented^—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, etc. ) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the 3-month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Se rie s numbe r s pre ceded by the le tte r "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6,
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,

Descriptions and Procedures
a n d D 5 8 ) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator (D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two
indexes on capital appropriations (602 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits ( 2 0 0 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes — actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers 1 sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 indust r i e s ) , based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular ai~d require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence f o r a prospective business cycle turning point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed
which shows the number of series reaching high
values during each month of the expansion.
The
timing distribution is summarized by showing the
number of series reaching new highs and the percent
currently high for each of several recent months
(see table 3 ) . Similar distributions of "lows"will
be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting
the distribution of current highs, such distributions
are also shown for leading and coincident series as
they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak
of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions
and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month* During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions .) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken
as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic
values are disregarded, although it is, of course,
difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for
the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 1) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to




identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead.
On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of
a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may ,be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month.
In
short,, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coiricfdent series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Pirection-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change (" + " for rising,
M
o" for unchanged, and "-11 for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables
provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly
aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show
which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
They alsohelp to show how a recession or recovery
spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes from r e f e r ence peak levels and from reference peak dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same for each expansion, the

Descriptions and Procedures
spans from the preceding peak dates are different,
depending on the length of the contractions. This
type of comparison answers the question whether,
and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds o;r falls short of the level at the preceding
business cycle peak, a given number of months after
the recovery began, and how the current situation
compares in this respect with earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates. This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for each
.series .' For example, the specific peak in retail
sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak
is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is
July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal to

100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is'
frequently necessary to vise data for a closely
related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered bythe series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in
definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since
1919. The principal cases of this sortare as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manuf acturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit. Supplements to wages and salaries,, which are a
part of total labor cost, are not included) .

HOW TO READ THE TIME SERIES CHARTS (CHARTS 1-3)

Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER

Arabic numerals indicate latest
month for which data are plotted

Indicates a break in continuitye.g., data not cvailable, change in
sample reported, change in base used
for computations, etc.

See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series

Broken [irie indicates quarterly data




Roman numerals indicate latest
quarter for which data are plotted

Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A1* is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-1" is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semi logarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT

NBER Leading Indicators

Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators

2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)

30. Nonagr. placements, all indus. (tnous.)

3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)--inverted

4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.)-inverted

5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.)—inverted

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.

6. New orders, dur,
(bil. dol.), 1

24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus. (bil. dol.)

9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq. ft. f oor area)

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol
J

'

-^

»%A V

P*
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)-Q

27. Buying policy, capital expend, (percent reporting
commitments 6 mo. or longer)

7. Private nonfarm housing starts (mil.

29. New bldg. permits, private housing units''-"*^
(index: 1957-59-100)
'"'' :"

1948 1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read me Time Series Charts," page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957 1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

New businesses and business failures

P

(May)

(Feb.)

P

T

T

.. .

12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)

13. New bus. incorporations {thous.)

14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dot.) — i n

15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.) —inverted

1948 1949
See "How

1950

1951

1952

1953

to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.

16. Corporate profits, after taxes (bil. dol.)-Q .Yf"

V.V.V.V. AW.

.

.

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59=
tSSSKEvW

-......-.,.

18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)-Q [^'.

*•• r—'
S!:x 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,;"
!C":-;";
oil industries (percent)

\Af:ff

lilii
iiil

1948 1949

19. Stock prices, 500 commo

l tliilll.li. nlnlnln nlnlnln

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954
page 4.

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts,1 r




1955

1956

1957 1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

NBER Leading Indicators—Con.

[ Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices]

21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bit. dol.)-Q ' t

31. Change in book value, mtg.
and trade inventories (bil. dol.)

20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of purch.
mtls. (bil.

26. Buying policy, prod. mtls. (percent reporting
commitments 60 days or longer)

•:•:•«:•"'"':
".::•:: 'J

I $B
32. Vendor performance (percent reporting slower de

••.•;.';:

25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil

-

;::•;:•:•"•-.;

23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)

-

100 §

-1 80

1948 1949

1950

1951

1952

1953 1954

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

10

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.);-:

Employment and unemployment

42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)

43. Unemployment rate (percent)—inverted
'.w.-M
;•;•;•

.V^

/Av-v^A^M
r
«
v

:\.-«i

40, Unemployment rate, married males

(p erc en t) - i n ve rt e d" f • %

46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)!

nl.ilnlnKtL.li^. i.lnl.il.i tilMli.ln i.li.l..l..

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

11

Basic Data
I CHART 1 |

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948

L

-i-tf
fc*

(Nov.)

TO PRESENT— Con.

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Con.

(Oct.)

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

130

Production

120

47, Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)]

100 "
90
500
475 ~
450 |
425 §
400

50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bi! dol.)-Q

600
550

I
':
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol.)-Q

500 i
450
400

600
550
57. Final sales (bil. do^-Q

450
400 ^
~o

350

300

',"'"...-.•»
-.; x

ily
1948 1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




250

, !,,!,, I,,

nlnl«t«

1954

1955

1956

1957 1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data

12

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Oct.)

P

T

P

T

(May)

<F«b.)

P

T

2.2
Income and trade

2.0 1.8 §
;•:•:': 51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)

1.6
450
425
4003

52. Personal income (bil

3 5
7 |
350
325

120
115
110
105 _
100 2
95 |

income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)

90
85
80

••••"••"

20
19
18
17

54. Sales of retail stores (bil, dol.)

16
15
14

no
100

55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods»",s
(index: 1957-59=100)

Wholesale prices

90 I
V)

80

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953 1954
page 4.

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts, "




1955 1956 1957 . 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

1963

13

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(May)

P

T

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

T

,; 61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)-Q

40
CO

30 -;
1
20

no
100 «
1

.!!.;:•;; 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)

90
^ 63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59=

110
100 ^
90

lv.v.y>:4

70
60

64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.):'"'''..'

"i
40

§

30
*:£f

65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil, dol.)

26
22
48

44
40 2
36 |
32
§
28
24

': 66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dot.)

f^

6

67. Bank rates on short-term^ bus. loans (percent)-Qf

5
4
3

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/
1

Last 2 quarters are anticipated.




1953

1954

' page 4.

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data

14

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.)
P

(July)
P

(Oct.)
T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

P

T

86. Exports, exc. military aid (bi

87. General imports (bil. dol)
•7T73S

Merchandise trade balance (bit. dol.)

89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance
of payments (bil. dol.)—Q

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

15

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(July)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)

P

(Oct.)
T

T

r .11

82. Fed. cash payments to public (bil. dol.):::.:::\.
Federal budget and military obligations

h"

83, Fed. cash receipts from public {bil. dol.)

84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.)

.'.>;:

95. Surplus or deficit,
Fea. Income and prod
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q

90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.) •*;

91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.) \

!\

92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

T 956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
Solid lines indicate 3-month average; latest data tor 3-month moving average plotted 1 month behind seasonally adjusted data.




1963

Basic Data

16

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con
(May)

(Ftb.)

85. Change in money supply (percentj

98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent):

93. Free reserves (bil. do.)v

>rrces (index: 1957-59=100)

94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59~100);

.;!96. Mrfs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. do I. );:...':':'.

97, Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.) "••.-.

-* 4.0
1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Reud the Time S«ri*s Charts," pay* 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

17

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Industrial production indexes

140
120
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59-100)
100 <N
-J

i

80 «

60

140
122. United Kingdom (index:

1957-59-100) 5

120

<

100;
80

60

123. Canada (index:

1957-59=100)

120
100 •
80

47. United States {index: 1957-59=100) m

120

loo;
80

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953 1954

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

18

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con
(May) (Feb.)

P

T

Industrial production
•"::?;: 125. West Germany {index: 1957-59

•:^;l 128. Japan (rndex 1957-59-100)

&'¥ 126. France (index: 1957-59-100)

40

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Basic Data

19

Table 1.-BAS1C DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES; JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by [H] ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, 4 ) Series numbers are for identification
5.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leadingr Indicators
Year and
month

1960

1. Average
workweek of
production,workers ,
manufacturing
(Hours per
prod, wkr.")

40.4

2. Accession 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manu- cultural
rate, manufacturing
placements, facturing
all industries
(Per 100
employees )

( Thous . )
506

1.6

535
513
504
494

1.9

40.1
39.9
39-9
39-6
39.^
39.5
39.3
©38-5

4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
©3.3

39-0
39.3
39-3
39.7
39.8
39-9
1*0.0
40.0
39-6
40.2
40.6
40.4

4.0
3.8
(34.6
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.0
4.1
3.7
4.4
4.0
3-8

443
444
4?4
©433
481
494
470
529
491
530
565
526

39-8

4.4
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
4.1
4.0
3-8
r4.0
P 3.5
(NA)

568
548
575
576
0602

4o.i
39-9

March
April

39.8

May

July
September
December
1961

April
May
July
September
October

(Per 100
employees )

482
460
488
473
460
475
444

2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
£.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.9
2.9

©2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.1

4. Number of
persons on
temporary
layoff, all
industries -1

5. Avg. weekly
initial claims
for unemployment insurance, State
programs

6. Value of
mf rs . ' new
orders, durable goods
industries

24. Value of
mf rs . f new
orders, machinery and
equipment
industries

( Thous , )

(Thous. )

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

14,19
14.80
i /*
14.64i

166
^
128
179

281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
373
385
381

193
©220
215
137
151
147
99
138
123
11
1
ill
123

393
©429
371
370
357
331
351
315
329
307
307
305

©12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14.79
14.90
15.02

177

312

16.43
16.19
16.00
15.73
15.97
15.44

122
110
116
!56
160
145

177
154

14.47
i
rr\

14.68
14.34
13.84
l4.4l
14.62
13.7^
13.60
13.22

1 c £.1

15.03
15.74

16.07
16.10
_ /•

jrO

16.24

1962
4o.3
40.5
040.8
40.6
40.5

March
April
May
June

40.5

July

40.2

40.5
40.1
40.4
P40.3
1963

538

553
555
534
579
573
517

1.9
1.9
1.6
01.6
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.0
1.8
pi. 8
(NA)

HD8o
117
107
118
112
126
134
116

125
131
110

-Or285

273
[HJ270
300
305
313
301
301
302
301
327
2

l6.27
15.91
15.89
rl6 , 57

[H)rl6.57
pl6.00

5.04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5.17
5.01
1 f?A
4 .70
)> r£.
4.96

4.87

fT*\ li £ic
Us) 4 .65

1 DT
4,ol
) > ££
4 .00

4.79
I. Qn
5.10
4.99
5*17
5.30
5.20
5.55 c
c li
5.45

5.59
C

CO

5.7^
c )iA

5 -4o

5.78

5

T\
.71

5.59
)1*7
5 .47

&.r\
5 ,oO

5 .62
C T\
5.71

&r\
5 .oO
r £n
5.69

r5.62
®r5.93
P5.79

355

February
March
April
May
June
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series.
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended January 12, 1963.




Prior to April 1962,

Basic Data

20

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-ContJnued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by [fcD ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings

1960

10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)

(Bil. dol.)

37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38087
39.33
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15

5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5.58
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5.27
5.39
5.30

35.18
36,90
38.16
©35.09
35.89
37.32
35*67
39.79
38.36
33. 4a
42 .22

5.52
5.50
5.64
5.51
5.73
5*92
5.80
6.13
5.93
6.13
6.41
6.04

37.72
U.72
46.09
39.93
OH 46. 42
44-34
38.60
43.27
39.38
40.60
42.59
(NA)

6.31
6.44
6,40
6.09
6.28
6.31
6.36
6o28
6.18
r6,20
®p6.58

February. ..„.**
March
«...
April
May
July. ..........
August* . . o
October
December
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. ..„,.,.,
September. ..<,..
October. ......

a. 54

1962
January » . B . > .
February, .*....
M%reh
April
May
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
February
1( ,
March
April....
,.
May.. ...... .




(NA)

7. New private
11. Newly ap- 27. Buying
proved capital policy, capi- nonfarm dwelappropriations, tal expend., ling unite
602 manufac- pet. reporting started
turing corpo- commitments
6 mo. and over*
rations

(Bil. dol.)
2.24
2.01
©1.79
2.11

1.82
1.92
2.24
2.13

2,32
2.00
2.32
(NA)

(Percent
reporting)

(Ann. rate,
thous . )

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorised by
local building permits
(1957-59=100)

55
50
46
50
46
50
45
47
43
39
38
©37

1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987

98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
83.5
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
-91.4
©87.1

40
39
45
45
41
38
45
47
46
39
39
47

1,108
1,087
1,258
1,162
1,278
1,376
1,333
1,303
1,397
1,413
1,345
1,255

89.3
39.4
92.3
92.5
93.0
97.6
98.4
101.2
97.4
103.1
102.7
111.6

41
47
44
46
39
41
38
46
[HI 48
47
47
43

1,247
1,134
1,407
1,521
1,566
1,399
1,447
1,500
1,261
rl,504
®rl, 576
pl,479

104.2
H3.5
105.7
112.9
103.6
104.4
106.5
103.1
107.8
107.9
rllO.7
(HIP125.0

12. Net ehangg
in business
population,
operating
businesses

(Thous.)
+19
+17

+u
+10

CD +6

+10
+10
+10

+11

[3+11
+10

(NA)

Basic Data

21

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs are indicated by E ;
*.
Q
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 ) Series numbers are for identification
5.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", "preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued
Year and
month

13. Number
of new business incorporations

1960

(Number)

14. Current 15. Business 16. Corpoliabilities failures
rate profits
of business with liabil- after taxes
failures
ities of
$100,000 and
over

17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index

(Number per
week)

(1957-59=
100)

(Mil. dol.)

16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,240
14,281
14,167

April
May

July

52,88
57.60
61 .57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78

29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41

©13,492
14,601
14,658
15,327
15,225
15,342
15,539
15,213
15,419
016,286
16,149
15,818

80.16
84.45
111.36
79.07
84.09
87.05
80.52
99-41
124.11
74-04
,112.36
068.94

38
42
40
39
41
41
41
35
40
43
39
38

15,124
15,809
15,713
15,402
15,260
14,904
15,247
15,104
15,249
15,373
14,849
(NA)

104.72
87.36
71.20
111.67
95.62
91.89
107.22
142.00
102.08
125-36
92.63
85.74

37
032
37
38
37
42
37
43
41
48
42
37

(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)
24.9
23.5
21.9
21.7

103.6
102.9
102.7
102.1
101.5
101.1
101.5
100.7
100.8
101 .0
101.2
100.1

18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
(Cents)

19. Index of
22. Ratio,
profits to
stock prices,
income orig- 500 common
inating, corstocks*
porate, all
industries
(Percent)

8.8

10.0

8.0

9-4

7.8

8.9

7.3

8.8

(1941-43=10)
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55-22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55-4?
56.80

1961

April
May

„

July
October

©20.3
22.9
23.7

026.3

©99-6
99.9
99.8
100.9
101.1
101.7
102.3
103.4
103.6
103.2
102.9
103.2

©6.6

©8.2

7.6

9.1

7.9

9.3

08.7

010.0

1962

February
April
May
July

October
November. * . * . . .
December
1963

25.6
26.1
26.1
(NA)

102.2
102.4
102.8
101.9
102.2
102.3
103.4
102.1
0105.0
r!03.4
r!04.2
p!04.0

8.1

9.5

8.2

9.6

8.1

9.6

(NA)

(NA)

59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
071.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62,64
^5. 13

February
April
May
1

January 17, 1963.




Basic Data

22

Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by Ed ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued
21. Change in
bus. inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment

1960

31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total

20. Change in
book value of
mf rs . ' inventories,
purchased
materials

26. Buying policy, production
matls., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*

32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year and,
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

February. ......
March
April
May
July* ..........
August
October
November
December
1961
January . . „

+10C8
+4.4
+2,1
-1.1

..
n. . . .

+2.1

July

+4.0

September
October . ,
December .......
1962
January
February*
March
April
May
....
June
* ...
July

+600

El*6.7
+4.0
+1.0

September
October

*
(N/0

1963
January
February
March
April
May

(1957-59=100)

+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4

64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48

44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38

-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
© -0.77
-0.50
-0,43

105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
96,5
©96.8

-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
(E+7.8
+4,2
+6.1
+5.0

-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3

51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54

38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53

+0.01
-Q002
-0.11

+0.23
+0.07
+0.49
+0C22
-0.03
+0.33
+0.25
+0.28

9?o3
99.3
103.1
104.1
OD1G4.4
101.0
.101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98,9
101.0

+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3d
+4.3
+3.3
-3.0
+5.7
r+3oB
P-3.1
(HA)

El+5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.8
p-1.0
(NA)

57
061
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51

56
IE 56
55
48
46
42
4i
44
48
48
48
48

13+1.21
+0.22
-0.33
-0.43
-0.31
-0.36
+0.29
-0.71
-0.81
r-0.09
r-0.26
p-0.72

102.9
100.6
100.4
9B.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94»9
96.4
95. S

-2 a
-6.2

©-3.6

March
April
May
June

+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
+0.4
-006
+2.4

23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*

+0.42

^5.7

„. .

'•January 16, 1963.




Basic Data

23

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by QE ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on .the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

October

(Thous.)

( Percent )

60,436
60,875
60,488
61,132
61,371
61,293
61,133
61,035
60,996
60,758
61,210
©60,635

5.29
4.91
5.38
5.17
5-14
5-44
5-44
5.75
5.70
6.14
6.18
6.65

53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492

March
April
May
June
July
August

42. Total
nonagricultural employment,
labor force
survey1

54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54, 584
54, 538
54,5U
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707

1960

41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Thous.)

Year and
month

60,852
60,922
61,274
61.101
61,234
61,543
61,371
61,417
61,188
61,369
61,840
61,618

54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
55,617
55,536
55,583
&55,647
r55,577
p55,594

61,690
62,206
62,280
62,236
62,775
62,747
62,809
E163,172
62,914
62,915
62,784
63,054

43. Unem40. Unem45. Average
ployment
weekly inployment
1
rate, total rate, marsured unemried males1 ployment
rate, State
programs

46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers

(Percent)

(1957=100)

(1957-59=
100)

3.35
3.02
3.48
3.34
3.36
3.61
3.70
3.95
3.83
4.32
4.46
4.73

4-27
4-17
4-54
4-26
4.19
4-39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33

109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84-6
82.2
©79.0

111.7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105-4
103.6

6.65
6.91
6.76
6.93
©7.02
6.86
6.87
6.81
6.86
6.66
6.11
6.00

4-72
©4-91
4-65
4.88
4-89
4.77
4-71
4-77
4.60
4.19
4.23
3.90

6.15
6.32
6.26
5-91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81

79.9
79.3
81 .1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84-8
95.9
99.1
96.9

©103.3
103-4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113-5
114.8
115.6

5.82
5.58
5.45
5.54
5.43
5.46
05.35
5.83
5.78
5.53
5.79
5.55

3.80
3.40
3.47
3.72
S3. 37
3.64
3.52
3.71
3.46
3.41
3.68
3.55

4.71
4.52
4-41
3.93
H3.82
3.96
4-25
4.41
4-38
4-55
4.84
4.79

102.3
105-9
EI106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
92.8
96.8
95.9
P95.2

114-3
116.0
117.0
117.7
118.4
118.6
119.3
119.7
(H]rll9.8
rl!9.3
119.5
P119.6

(Percent)

50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
440.9
442.3
439.7
437.7

1961

March
April
May
July

D433-9
443.9
450.4
463.4

1962
January
March
April
May
July
October

......

467.4
470.8
0471.6

(NA)

1963
2

4.83

April
May
1
92
Beginning with April 1962, the 1 6 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1 6 ,
9 0
the 1950 Census is used as the ^benchmark.
2
¥eek ended January 5, 1 6 .
9 3




24

Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESEKT-Continued

Series ere seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by SI ;
*.
the inverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 ) Series numbers are for identification
5.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

49. Gross national product
in current
dollars

57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

501.7

490.8

504. a

500.4

503.7

501.5

503.3

I960

504.4

©500.8

©504.4

Mareh* . . <, . . . . . .
April. .........
May
*
June
July
August
October
December

51. Bank
52. Personal
debits outside income
NYC, 343
centers

53. Labor
54. Sales of
55. Index of
income in
retail stores wholeuale
mining, manuprloeEj except
facturing, and
farm products
construction
and foods

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3

395,7
395.2
395.3
400.2
401.6
402.5
402.4
403.2
403.8
404.7
403.8
©402.6

108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7

18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887

101.5
101 0 4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101,0

1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,84802
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9

403.4
404.2
U06.7
410.6
413.3
416.4
1
417.5
418.3
419.7
423.6
427.8
430.5

104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
10809
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8

©17,773
17,786
IB, 117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827

101.0
101.0
101.0
100.9
100.8
100.7
100.7
100,7
100.8
100.6
100.8
100.9

2,010.0
1,916.7
1,985.5
2,044*5
2,015,3
2,000.3
2,055,1
2,017.1
1,988.6
r2, 081.0
U2,090.6
p2,067.2

428.8
431.9
435.2
438.3
439.7
440.7
441c9
443.0
443.5
445.6
r448.2
(IDP450.4

110.8
112.1
113.0
115.0

18,835
18,965
19,266
19,596
19,432
19,089
19,682
19,569
19,618
r!9,744
r20,189
EJp20,238

100.8
100.6
©100.6
100 . 7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.7
0100,9

(Mil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

1961

February.
March
April
May

June
July
August
September
October
November .......
December. <,
1962
January
February
March
April

my

513.1

511.0

522.3

518.3

538.6

532.6

545.0

538.3

552.0

547,9

Julv

Augua t

IE 555 .3

[S55402

(NA)

(NA)

October
December. *
1963
February
March
April
May
June

lisa

114.9
El 115. 2
115.0
114.8
rl!4.8
rl!4.8
p!14.8

100. a
100. a
100.7

g

100.5

stepped-up rate of payments and special payments of government life insurance dividende to veterans in
March 1961 ($1.8 billion) and July 1961 ($2.6 billion), respectively.
2
Week ended January 15, 1963.




Basic Data

25

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by [El ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month

1960

61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
(Ann. rate.
bil. dol.)
35.15

March
April
May
June

36.30
35-90

October
November

35.50

62. Index of
wage and
salary cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing

63. Index of
labor cost per
unit of output, total GNP

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

96.7
98.1
98.5
99.1
99.6
100.1
99.8
100.5
100.4
100.2
100.4
101.0

64. Book value
of manufacturers ' inventories, all
manufacturing
industries

65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs . T in- installment
ventories of
debt
finished goods,
all manufacturing ind.

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol..)

53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54-9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7

20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21 .2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21 .9
21.9
21 .8

(Mil. dol.)
Revised 1
38,771
39,252
39,678
40,177
40,472
40,813
41,099
41,308
41,562
41,690
41,832
41,943

53.7
53.6
©53.3
53-4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54-0
54-4
54-8
55-0
55.2

21.8
21.8
21 .7
21.7
21.5
©21.5
21.5
21.7
21.8
21 .9
21 .9
22.0

41,918
41,832
41 ,786
41,665
©41,656
41.700
41,704
41,759
41 ,808
41,970
42,239
42,587

55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
57.2
(B]r57.3
P57.1
(NA)

22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.7
E3P22.7
(NA)

42,866
43,138
43,516
44,009
44,448
44,869
45,255
45,613
45,815
46,199
046,780
(NA)

103.2
104.3
105.4
105.0

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*

( Percent )

5.34
5.35
4.97
4.99

1961
January
33.85
March
April
May

©33.50

July
August

34-70
35.40

100.9
101.1
101.2
100.0
99.6
98.8
98.3
97.4
©97.3
97.5
98.0
97.5

106.1
105.8
105.8
©104.7

4.97
4.97
4.99
©4.96

1962
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
October

35.70
36.95
038.35
S

38.35

98.0
98.2
97.7
98.7
98.7
98.6
97.6
El 98. 9
96.4
r97.7
r97.0
P96.6

105.5
106.9
EI107.6

(NA)

1963
2

37.70

March
April
May
A

See "Important Features and Changes For This Issue,M page ii.
Anticipated.




4.98
5.01
4-99
05.02

Basic Data

26

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Cont.'niwf
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by ( ;
*.
3
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p11, preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports,
excluding
military
aid shipments ,
total

Year and
month

87. General
imports ,
total

88. Merchandise
trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)

1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622,2
1,659.3
1,633.3
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647,2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645-3

3,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8

+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518,9
+520.5

1,646.1
1,736.4
1,711.1
1,658.3
1,577.0
1,594.9
1,668.0
1,659.7
1,667.8
1,772.9
1,716.3
1,719.2

1,150.9
1,146.1
1,158.4
1,159.0
1,155.2
1,177.2
1,366.4
1,261.3
1,280.3
1,322.4
1,310.7
1,296.5

+495.2
+590.3
+552.7
+499.3
+421.8
+417*7
+301.6
+398.4
+387.5
+450.5
+405.6
+422 .
7

1,660,0
1,852.1
1,632.1
1,794.6
April
1,774.7
May
1,858.9
June
1,718.1
July
1,651.6
August
September
, . 1,935.9
1,503.2
October
November ....... 1,705.2
December. . . „ . . . (NA)
1963

1,320.1
1,314.1
1,336.1
1,374.2
1,385.0
1,345.8
1,353.4
1,377.0
1,498.6
1,339.4
1,420.3
(NA)

+339.9
+538.0
+296.0
+420.4
+389.7
+513.1
+364.7
+274.6
+437.3
+163.8
+284.9
(NA)

„

July

82. Federal cash
payments
to the
public

83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public

84. Federal surplus (+)
or deficit (-)

95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product aect

90. Defence
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)

1960

March
April
May

89. Excess,
receipts(-f)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments

,

September*
October.
November. <,
1961
January

March
April
May
July
August
September
October
November ..<,....
December. .„..**
1962

-680
-775

-1,157
'-1,313

-319
s

+176
-910

-1,408

-492
-226
-719
(NA)

89.9
97.8
91,9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.3
96.0

89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
103.3
100.4

0.0
-1,2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
+1.0
+4.4

96.8
95.4
107.2
100.7
110.9
105.4
97.5
114-0
101.8
111.1
107.3
103.8

93.1
93 -.2
89.1
98.0
102.2
95.3
90.3
104.0
100.8
99.1
103.9
102.8

-3.7
-2.2
-18.1
-2.7
-8.7
-10.1
-7.2
-10.0
-1.0
-12.0
-3.4
-1.0

116.1
108.7
107.3
110.2
107.0
r0.
!74
115.3
113.6
106.7
120.5
115.8
114.6

100.0
99.9
93.8
109.5
113.2
rl01.4
109.2
114-0
109.3
107.1
112.1
110.2

-16.1
-8,8
-13.5
-0.7
+6,2
r-6.0
-6.1
+0.4
+2.6
-13.4
r-3.7
-4.4

February
April
May
June
1
Includes
3

single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $630 million in special debt payments to the United States.




+861
+5.5
+1.5
-0.4

-6.3
-4.2
-3.3
-1.3

-2.4
-0.7
-0.9
(NA)

937
1,104
1,020
983
1,373
1,269
2,866
1,230
1,206
998
1,559
1,239

1,306
1,476
1,163
1,089
1,117
1,238
1,671
2,237
1,864
1,436
1,372
1,891
1,912
1,147
1,150
1,904
1,075
1,164
2,845
1,365
1,000
1,917
1,872
(MA)

Basic Data

27

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by [H] ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month

1960
February
March
April
May
July
September
October

92. Military prime
contract
awards to
U.S. business firms

85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money
supply

98. Percent
change in
money supply and
time deposits

(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)

(Percent}

(Percent)

91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total

93. Free
81. Index
reserves* of consumer
prices

(Mil. dol.)

(1957-59=
100)

94. Index
of construction
contracts,
total
value

96. Mfrs.'
unfilled
orders,
durable
goods industries

97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing

(1957-59=
100)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
+37
+120
+247
+4U
+480
+614
+669

102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103-1
103.3
103-2
103.5
103.6
103.8

93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
111
120

47.56
46.77
46.00
45-32
45.13
44-91
44-67
44.50
44.37
43.60
43.10
42.68

+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
+0.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57

+696
+517
+486
+551 '
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419

103.9
104.0
104.1
103.9
104.0
104.0
104-3 '
104-4
104.5
104.4
104.4
104.4

108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119

42.69
42.66
42.55
42.97
43-20
43.27
43-75
43.97
43.95
44.28
44.53
44.81

+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
F+1.03

+546
+434
+379
+441
+434
+371
+443
+436
+378
r+419
r+470
p+265

104.6
104-9
105.2
105.2
105-4
105.3
105.4
105.6
106.0
105.8
105.8
(NA)

115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
(NA')

46.02
46.24
45-91
45.48
45.17
44-81
45.08
44-37
43.56
r43.46
r43.20
P42.48

3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,926
3,299
4,109
3,671

1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2*302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797

-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
+0.21
+0.36
+0.07
+0.07
-0.14
+0.28

-0.14
-0.38
-0.10
0.00
-0.05
-0.05
+0.53
+0.67
+0.38
+0.47
+0.28
+0.52

3,621
3,9.76
3,552
3,449
3,600
3,723
4,3U
5,344'
4,785
4,191
4,121
4,681

1,944
2,153
1,774
1,882
1,501
1,888
2,066
2,389
2,127
2,847
2,500
2,153

+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
.+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55

4,449
3,899
3,914
4,491
3,967
3,821
5,821
4,618
3,892
4,760
4,925
(NA)

3,429
2,121
2,230
1,855
1,774
1,715
2,047
2,660
2,218
3,354
(NA)

+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0,07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
p+0.68

8.05
7.74
7.15
7.07

1961
February
April
June
July
August
October
November
December.

6.72
6.58
6.68
6.83

1962
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
November. ......

1963

April
May
June




7.15
7.06
7.12
(NA)

Basic Data

28

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series a:?e seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by E] ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p% preliminary.
International comparisons of industrial production
1

Year and
month

121. OECD,
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production

122. United 123. Canada,
index of
Kingdom,
industrial
index of
industrial production
production

47. United
States ,
index of
industrial
production

125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production

120. Japan,
index of
indua trial
production

(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 0-957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59^100) (1957-39=100)
118
112
112
113
109
111
109
136
122
109
111
113
10?
109
112
137
123
110
110
108
115
110
ii4
March
^
140
112
123
110
115
112
105
April
113
140
124
111
116
110
112
105
114
May
126
143
118
110
115
111
105
116
145
118
125
115
104
109
111
118
July
148
127
117
104
115
109
112
116
August
151
118
127
108
119
112
105
116
126
151
120
119
105
107
112
11?
October. ..,.».»
157
121
129
120
110
105
105
118
158
129
122
104
119
112
105
118
I960

1961
January. ».....*

March
April
May . .
July
September
October
1962
January
February
March
April.
Mav
June
July ....... ...

September. ......
November
December . ...,„.
1963
January
February
.
March
April
May
June

11?
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
123
124

124
125
125
125
125
r!26
127
126
(HA)

109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109

104
105

105

107
107

109
109
111
112
112

109

114
114

108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
112

113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119

(MA)

(NA)

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.




103
103
104
107
109
111 .
112
113
112
114
115
116

124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128

114
116
117
118
118
119
119
120
120
rl!9
120
p!20

126

126

129

127

125
131
130
129
128
128
130
130
132
(NA)

127
128
129
129
130
130
132
133
135

117
119
121
119
119
121
121
121
121
125
126

127

(NA)

129
133
132
133
135
135
137
130
139
143
147
147

l6g
160
166
166
172
175
179

148
149
147
149
151
145
149
148
148

190
188

(NA)

i8a
183
187
190
191

193
192
195
194
191
193
194
p!91
p!92
(NA)

Analytical Measures

29

Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.

Series

Avg.
Measure change,
of
1948- Apr.
change
to
19611
May

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
30.
3.
4.

Percent . . 0.5
6.0
. .do
3. -4
Nonagri. placements, all industries... . .do
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted). ..do
11.9
Number of persons on temporary lay19.4
..do
off, all industries (inverted)
Avg. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted). ..do
7.0
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durflbTp pooct^ irifUi^tri p^ * ^. ...«..»».. . .do. . . . 5.6
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
6.1
machinery and equipment industries... ..do
Construction contracts awarded for
12 A
commercial and industrial buildings.. ..do
Contracts and orders for plant and
6.4
.'.do

1962

1963

Hay
to
June

June
to
July

-2.3
+4.5
-12.5

-0.2
-9.3
-10.6
-11.1

0.0
+5.1
+2.8
-20.0

-0.7
+0.7 -1.0 +0.7
-5.0 +5.3 -12.5
-2.4
+0.4
-3.8 +8.4 -1.0
0.0
-8.3 +23.1 +10.0

-10.3

+5.1

-12.5

-6.3

-11.1

-1.7

-2.6

+3.8

+1.5

-3.3

+5.4

+2.4

+0.4
-4.5

-0.5

July
to
Aug.

Aug.
Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.

Oct.
to
Nov.

Nov. Dec.
to
to
Dec. Jan.2

-0.2
MA

-9.8
NA

-7.8

-4.8 +16.0

0.0

-0.3

+0.3

-8.6

-2.2

-0.1

+4.3

0.0

-3-4

+1.6

-1.9

+1.6

-1.2

+5.5

-2.4

-12.9

+12.1

-9.0

+3.1

+4.9

NA

-1.6
+0.8
-1.3
+3-1 +0.5
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
..do
602 manufacturing corporations3
+16.0
11.2 -13.8
27. Buying policy, capital expend., percent
reporting commitments 6 mo. or more.. ..do
7.6 -15.2 +5.1 -7.3 +21.1 +4.3
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
4.1 +3.0 -10.7 +3-4 +3.7 -15.9
. .do
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits,... ..do
3-9 -8.2 +0.8 +2.0 -3.2 +4.6
12. Net change in business population,
-1
3
0
"Rious
-0.9 +1.0
+2.3
-2.3
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent. . 3.0 -0.9
14. Current liabilities of business
16.3 +14.4 +3.9 -16.7 -32.4 +28.1
. .do
15. No. of business failures with liabil17-3 +2.6 -13-5 +11.9 -16.2 +4.7
ities of $100,000 and over (inv.)
..do
0.0
do
7.7 +2.0
..do
0.7 +0.3 +0.1 +1.1 -1.3 +2.8
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
-1.2
.
sales all mf2 corporations . ... * . .do . . 7 7 +1.2
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
0.0
corporate all industries . . ... . . . .do
..
5 8 +1.1
+2.4 +2.7
2.6
-7.4 -11.7
..do
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
-0.9
Ann. rate,
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm and
3
-3.0
bil.dol. 3-1
nonfarm, after val. adjustment ^. . . .
-2.7
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
+8.7
4.0 +0.6 +1.2 -1.0
..do
-6.3
20. Change in book value of mfrs ..' inven+1.6
-0.2
-0.5
-1.2
. . do
1.7 -0.8
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
0.0
+6.1 +11.5 -10.3
report, commitments 60 days or more.. Percent. . 6.2 -10.9
32. Vendor performance, percent report+4.8
0.0 +9.1
-4.2
-8.7
. . do
11.3
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders,
fill. dol. 0.46 +0,12 -0.05 +0.65 -1.00 -0.10
+0.3
-0.5
-1.3
23. Index of industrial materials prices., Percent. . 2.2
-0.5
-2.5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricul+0.1
-0.1
+0.2 +0.1
0.4 +0.3
..do
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,
+0.6
-0.4
0.0 +0.1
0.4 +0.9
. . do
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
4.7 +2.0 -0.6 +2.0 -9.0 +0.9
5.8 +9.4 -8.0 +3-3 -5.4 +6.7
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. . . do
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
5.6 +2.8 -3.7 -7.3 -3.8 +0.7
..do
State programs ( inverted )

+0.3

+6.1

NA

5.
6.
24.
9.
10.

See footnotes at end of table.



+16.3

+13.4

-8.6

m
-2.1
+19.3

0.0

+4.8

-8.5
-6.2

+0.1

+2.6 +12.9

+0.8

-3.4

NA

-22.8 +26.1

+7.4

NA

-17.1

-1.5

+12.5
NA
+0.8

+11.9
-0.2

NA
NA

-3.2

+6.9

+4.3

+4.0

NA

-1.9

-6.9

NA

-0.7

-0.2

NA

+5.8

-5.5

-1.9

0.0

0.0

+0.72 -0.17
+1.6
+1.0

0,0

-0.46

-0.6

+0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0
+4.3
+1.4

-0.2
-4.7
-7-9

+0.4
+4.1
+3.5

-3.9

-6.4

+1.0

-0.1

-0.8

Analytical Measures

30

Table 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
3, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.

Series

Avg.
Measure change,
of
Apr.
change 1948- to
1961x
May

1963

19 62

May
to
June

June
to
July

July
to
Aug.

Aug. Sept. Oct.
to
to
to
Sept. Dot. Nov.

-4.3
+0.1

+4.3
-0.4

-1.4
+0.1

+4.6
+0.5

Nov.
to
Dec.

Deo.
to
Jan.2

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
3.3
1.2
1 .4
1 .9
1 .6
1.6
0.7

-0.1
+0.6
+0.7
+1.3
+1 .8
-1.4
+0.3

-7.1
+0.2

-0.6
+0.6

-0.7
+0.2

+2.7
+0.3

-0.9
+0.3
+0.2
+0.6
+1 ,1
-1.8
+0.2

1 .1
..do
. . do . ... 1 .6

+0.1
-0.8

-0.2
-1 .8

+0.3
+3.1

-0.2
-0.6

-0.2
+0.3

0.3
..do
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
3.6
do
sintl eQUipment total
62. Ind«x of wage and salary cost per
0.7
untt of output, total manufacturing.. ..do
63. Index of labor cost per unit of out3
1.0
. .do
put total GNP
64. Boole value of mfrs.' inventories, all
, . do
0.9
65. .Book VElue of mfrs.' inventories of
1.0
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
1 .2
. . do
66. Conoumtr installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
. .do
loans 19 eities ^
3.0
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship. . do
3.7
. . do
07. General imports total
3-5
Mil. dol. 58.6
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
332
. ,clo
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . . 7.2
S3, Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
7.5
84. Federal sash surplus or deficit ^. . . . Ann. rat©
..
bil.dol. 5.7
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
3.2
. .do
25.4
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . .
15.6
..do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to
29.2
. .do
85. Change in money supply excluding time
0.22
deposits'*
. .do
93 . Free reserves^
Mil. dol. 138
Percent. . 0.3
81. Index of consumer prices
8.3
94. Index1 of construe, contracts, total... ..do
2.1
96. Mfra. unfilled orders, dur. goods
..do
6.3
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg... ..do
98. Change in money supply including time
0.19
deposits4
, . do

+0.2

-0.1

+0.1

-0.2

+0.2

47. Index of industrial production
50. Gross national product in 1954 dol."*..
49. Gross national product in cur. dol.3..
57. Final sales (series 49 minus '21)3
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers..
5? . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,

Percent. .
..do
..do
. . do
. .do
..do
..do

-0.9
+0.2
NA
Nil
NA.
+0.5
+0.6

-0.7
+0.1

+0.6

0.0
+2.3

0.0
+0.2

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.0

-1.1
+0.5

55. Index of wholesale prices except farm

0.0

5

0.0

+3.8

+3.5
-0.1

-1.0

+1.3

-2.5

+1.3

+0.7

+1 .3

-0.2

-0.7

-0.4

NA

+0.2

+0.2

+0.2

0.0

+0.4

+0.2

-0.3

NA.

+0.5
+1 .0

+0.4
+0.9

+0.4
+0.9

+0.4
+0.8

+0.4
+0.4

0.0
+0.8

0.0
+1 .3

NA
NA

+0.6

WA

-1 .1
+4-7 -7.6 -3.9 +17.2 -22.4 +13.4
+0.8 -2.8 +0.6 +1 .7 +8.8 -10.6 +6.0
H.
-30.7 +123.4 - 8 4 -90.1 H62.7 -273.5 H21.1.

NA
NA
WA

-0.4

+0.6

NA

+266
+0.4
-2.9
+3-4 -10.4

+7.4
+7.7

-493
-1.5
+4.4

-6.1
-4.1

+12.9
-2.0

-3.9
+4-7

-1.0
-1.7

-12.2

-0.1

+6.5

+2.2 -16.0

+9.7

-0.7

-0.2
+8.3 +144-4 -52.0 -26.7 +91.7
-20.7 -15-7 +22.3
-3.7 +52.3

-2.3
+3.5

+6.9
+1 .7
-43.5
-11.7

-4-4

-3.3

-0.54
-7
+0.2
-3.3
-0,7
-1.3

+0.20

-63
-0.1
+2.6
-0.8

-0,48 +0,21

+19-4 +29.9 -16.6

+51.2

NA

NA
NA

NA

+0.55 +0.41
-58
+a
+0.4 -0.2
-4.2
+3.5
-1.8 -0.2

0.00 +0.13
+51 -205
NA
0.0
NA
+5.1
-1.7
»0.6
NA

+0.09 -0.47 +0.42 +0.38

+ .07 +0.12

+0.14 -0.43
+72
-7
+0.1 +0.2
-2.5 +0.9
+0.6
-1.6
+0.8

average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the (series, beginning with the earliest 2
date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision or new seasonal ad3
justment made: new computations feasible,
Percentage changes cover part of this period only.
Quarterly series;
figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNF (series 49)
shown in the Apr.-May column refers to the change from the 1st quarter of 1962 to the 2nd quarter of 1962.
^Figures
5
are the month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table 1.
Antieipated. The percent
change from 4th quarter 1962 to 1st quarter 1963, based on anticipated data is -1.7.



Analytical Measures

31

Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached

Business cycle peak
Nov.
14
98

July
1957

July
1953

3d month before business cycle peak

Apr.
1953

Aug.
1948

May
1960

Apr.
1957

Feb.
1960

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1

!
U
1

4
1

22

1

2
2

14
2
1
3
2
1

3
4

11
1

1
4
1

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2

19
16

12
1

1
1

2
2
3
1

1
2
1
3
2
1

1

4

3
ilS
0

20

23
0

23
0

!8
l

0

2

19
21

23
0

23
4

1

1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

3

1

1
1

1
3

1

2

1
2

1
4
1
2
1

Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached

2
3
3

11
9

11
27

2
1

2
3

'*5

2
3

4
4

1
4
4

2
3
3

3
6

11
45

11
27

11
36

11
36

11
27

11
55

6th month before business cycle peak
Jan.
1957

Jan.
1953

May
.98
14

1

Nov.
1959

Current expansion
Sept.
1962

Oct.
1962

Nov.
1962

Dec.
1962

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

7 months

6
1

2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3

17
1
1
1

19
16

4
2
» CNJ CM i-t
XO \O
H

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2

1
1

4
4
4
.2
4

10
5

14

"*3

"3
3

12
3
2

9
1

3
2
2

1

1
2
2

2

2
1

4

23
4

23
9

23
9

23
4

23
17

3
1
16
6

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

1

1

1
"l

1

1
5

2
3
6

5
3

4
2
..
.
*••
2
3

11
45

11
55

11
27

11
27

4
2

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

1
1

1
5
1
3
11
27

1
1

2
1
2
4
11
36

2
1
2
1
3
11
27

2
1
2
1
1
2
11
18

All quarterly series 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.




32

Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators

Percentage

Dl. Av, workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (21 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]

Expanding

D6. New orders, dur. goods indus. (21 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]

D11, Newly approved capital appropriations x-.—^
.. 602 cos. [4-quarter interval ]
— 15 sndus. [1-quartcr interval]

D33. Profit;;, Chicago PA A, percent reporting V,;.
higher profits (200 cos.) H-mo. interval ]:«;

D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
igher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval ji'S

D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus,
[3-mo. interval]

D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval]

D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.
(47 areas;)"inverted
[3-mo. interval ]

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

$•* "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

Analytical Measures

33

DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)

Percentage
Expanding

(Aug.)

P

T

D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 indus.)
H-mo. interval ]

D47. Industrial production (24 Indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]

D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)

D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[3-mo. interval]

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

I960

1961

1962

1963

Analytical Measures

34
CHART 3

DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT

(Nov.)

P

T

1948

1949

P

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

T

1958

P

1959

1960

T

1961

Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows;

Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (October 1962)...
D48 (September 1962)
D61 (August 1962)

Latest interval shown
Actual
3 r d Q 1961 - 3 r d Q 1962
4th Q 1960 - 4th Q 1961
I s t Q 1962- 2nd Q 1962

Anticipated
IstQ 1962 - I s t Q 1963
4th Q 1961 - 4th Q 1962
3rd Q 1962 - 4th Q 1962

*lncrease of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.




Percentage
Expanding

(May) (f«b.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Otl.)

1962

1963

Analytical Measures

35

Table 4.~DIFFUS10N INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D5&, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes

Year and
month

Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

21.4
19.0
35-7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1

31.0
7-1
21.4

D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
1 -month
interval

3 -month
interval

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations

a. 602 com- b. 15 induspanies
tries
4-quarter
interval

1-quarter
interval

1960

April
May
July.
September
October
November

9-5
2.4
14.3

28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6

57.1
28.6
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9

54.8
95-2
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4

52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59-5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57-1
57.1
57.1
28.6

33.3
90.5
76.2
81.0
61.9
66.7
76.2
61.9
61.9
61.9
42.9
47.6

19.0
61.9
95.2

71.4
57.1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
33-3
33.3
r71.4
r47.6
P33.3

42.9
61.9
42.9
61.9
38.1

66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8

50.0
44

33.3
40

23-3
40

66.7

48

1961
February
April.
May
July
August
September
October
November,

1962
January

j^
yy

July
August
September
October

69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1
11.9
78.6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
28.6
33.3
71.4
r7.1
r?3.8
P47.6

1963
February
March
April
May
June




85.7
76.2
23.8
19.0
35.7
r33.3
r35.7
p35.7

52.4
52.4
42.9
r52.4
66.7
P57.1

46.7

54
53.3

58
70.0

65
56.7

52

66.7
52

26.7

(NA)
(NA)

D33. Profits,
Chicago PM
(200
companies )

1 -mo nth
interval

46
36
4o
44
42
44
39
34
3^
34
28
30
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
48
49
50
52
52
48
4o
46
45
42
44
43

Analytical Measures

36

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued

Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered In the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, B23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most ©f
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices ,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(82 industries)1
corporations )

Yisar and
month

1-quarter
interval

1 -month
interval

3 -month
interval

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1 -mo nth
interval

3 -month
interval

D5. Average weekly initial
elaimo for unemployment
insurance, State programs
(47 areas)
1 -month
interval

3 -month
interval

I960

49
February
March
April
May. ,.
June
July
August

..

49
43
44

October
December
1961

44
February,

69

April
Mav
July

,

September. .....
October
Novembe r
December
1969

56
53

51
56

April
May

June
July . . ........
August
September
October

46
(NA)

28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75-9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7

27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8

69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9

53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15-4
30.8

34-0
54.3
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55-3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2

83.3
a6,2
40.5
14.9
29. 8
38.3
19.1
34.0
21 .3
45-7
36.2
46.8

87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81,1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1

96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54-9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4

38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65-4

46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53-8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7

59.6
31.9
80.9
40,4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
19.1

46. a

26.2
74.4
48,2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34-8
6.7
98. 8
84.8

39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2

73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5

61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65-4
79,2
2
66.7

57.4
93.6
38.3
5L1
36.2
16.0
70.2
55.3
44.7
44.7
78.7
23.4

68. 1
61.7
66.0

53.2

61.7
68.1
61.7
80.9
87.2
66.0
3S.J3
68.1
87.2
78.7
29. B

12. a
36.2
44-7
72.3
53.2
61.7
44.7

1963
3

58.3

April
June ...........
diffusion index is based on 86 components through January 1960; on 85 components, February 1960 to November 1960,
and ©n 82 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 22 components, are shown in
the adirectlon-of-change table (table 6C).
January 16J: 1963.




Analytical Measures

37

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued

Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, JD23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; »p" f preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
D41. Number of employees
in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries)

Year and
month

D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)

D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)

D58. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. indus.)

1 -mo nth
interval

3 -mo nth
interval

1 -month
interval

3 -month
interval

1 -month
interval

3 -month
interval

1-month
interval

56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50<,0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
30.0
20.0
11.7

80.0
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15,0
16.7

64.6
12.5
50.0
64o6
68.8
60.4
50.0
31.2
18.8
47.9
27.1
20.8

64.6
35.4
43.8
77.1
79.2
6.
67
35.4
10.4
20.8
12.5
20.8
12.5

68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
a7
.
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2

37.5
47.9
79.2
54,2
62,5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45.8
45.8
43 08
41.7

60.3
45.6
56.8
46,7
40.4
45 o4
39.6
32.5
32,0
3609
32.5
46.7

33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85,0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53,3

11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83 o3
46.7
50.0
63.3
6803
53.3

47.9
29.2
58.3
89.6
83.3
87.5
75.0
64.6
22.9
87.5
70.8
62.5

29.2
54.2
79,2
91 .
7
93.8
83.3
100.0
60.4
7008
75.0
83.3
52.1

58,3
43.8
79.2
27.1
43.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8

35.4
72.9
43.8
58.3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35o4
75.0
70.8
89,6
70 08

38.6
41.3
54.6
59 o7
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
58,1
41.2
36.9
53,3

33,3
81 o7
81.7
90.0
70.0
63.3
48.3
40.0
30.0
r48.3
r31.7
P50.0

60.0
75.0
91.7
88.3
80.0
68.3
55,0
25.0
25.0
rl6.7
P35.0

18.8
70.8
60 o4
70.8
70 «8
62 05
66.7
54.2
r66.7
r29.2
r47.9
P56.2

33.3
43,8
83.3
81.2
75.0
79.2
62.5
r72.9
r37.5
r37.5
P35.4

62.5
62.5
62.5
60. 4
39.6
22.9
83.3
56.2
50.0
r29.2
r87.5

60 <,4

66.8
41.3
63.3
48.8
66.4
47.6
33.0
32.5
34.2
34.7
r45.6
p27.2

1960

March
April
May

June
July
October. . . . .
...
1961

March
April.
Ifey.

,.

July
August
September. . . .
..
December
1962

April
May
July
August
September.
November

*

1963
January
February
tferch. . . . . .
....
Aoril
Mav
June




pa. 7

64.6
91.7
81,2
39.6
37.5
62.5
8102
ra.7
r66.7
P56.2

Analytical Measures

38

Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT

Numbers tire centered within intervals: M
4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
In the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4 -quarter
interval

Year and
month

Actual

D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval

Anticipated

Actual

IX-8. Freight carload ings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval

D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval

8.
44

71,9

71.9
71.9

34.4

43,8

28.1

37.5

46.9

53 «1

56.2

62,5

59.4

65,6

65.6

62.5

68.8

Antici- Change in
pated total (000)

Anticipated

56,2

Actual

Actual

75.0

Anticipated

68.8

(NA)

65.6

1960
61

82

58

76

31.6

68.4

+96

53

74

51

68

31,6

78.9

-103

50

70

50

68

21.1

50,0

-279

60

68

62

68

26.3

42.1

-212

February.
March
April. .........

12

82

72

78

36.8

89.5

-28

May

74

83

73

78

6,
84

73.7

r+79

82

88

82

86

(NA)

89,5

+125

81

86

78

82

89.5

+62

SO

88

76

84

94.7

-67

(m)

80

(M)

74

89.5

r-96

March... .
April . . . «
May
,
July

October. . . . .
....
1961

JUly

» . . ».

September
November .......
1962

March
April
May

June

...»

July

August

<> . .

November «
December
1963
March.
April
Mav




74

70

71.9

Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
A.—(D1) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing

3 -mo nth spans

rH
d
^
1

1962

1961

1960
21 industry components

QD P< -P
3 0)
U
< CO O
1
1
1

>
O
&
1

0
0)
Q
1

B, 5 '-a ""a •=*! CO
1* § -3 §f &

<<

>
§ ^ f H f-9* i t >^> C H M 0f t °- P ^ 0
?
H a^ p J9 g ^ JJ h ^ ^ ^^ ^ c o o °S 1Q
^
g
t
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

- P > o c ! X > ^ ^ > > d H b O f t
O O a > < a < D a J C H J r i p P 2 Q )
X

oa(-5f-a(342;<iJS

69 17 14 24 10 2 U

K*; QC qn

3'-Ti-=>5co

1963

rtJ2^^>*tirHbOa-P>0

0 5 0 ) ^ 0 - ^ f 3 ^( ^ ( a1 ) 0 0 0 )
[k<S'=^Sl -3 -3- JCOOSO

3 oi j i
o
p

i J.

4 i

i. i 4,

J. i

m a ) ^ O |H i 3 ^ ^ a >

O S « ) - 3 f

E

, S < : S

S3

,0

FH

In

S g

3 ^ A | | 1

- j i r s ' a J c O

ftl Q^ AQ 7Q / z 7Q S3! Si OT iy o*i Qf: iso Oi *£4 IV 3o 33 3o 3o
*il 1Q /C.O Vp tJ^. ^o O / 1Q oA ^ o Oi Oi
--

+

+

O

+

-

-

O

-

+

_ _ _ + _

-

DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES

+

o

-

-

---

-

-

+
+

+

o -

-

o - +

-

-

-

- -

+

+

+

+

+

•*-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-O

0

+

--

+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

+

_

0

+

0

+

+

+

+
+

+

+

+

+

0

- - - - +

+ + +

+ +
0 +

+
+

+

+

+

+

--

-

+

+

+

-

0

+

-f

+

- - - ' +

- + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + 0 + - + - + + -I-

- - + + - _ _

+ . . . _ -

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

+
_

+

+

--

-

- + - + + +
- - + + + +

+ +

+ + + + +
+ + - _ _

+ + + + +
+ + + + +

+

+

0

-

-

+

+ + + -

+

^<
r^
+

+

+

+

. . .+

S
O

NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Tobacco mflnufa c"tu7*p^
Apparel and allied products

•
.....,.,„.. +
0

. . _ _ _
—

—

—

—

—

8
—
-

O " t " - " t " +
+
+ 4- +
0

Petroleum and coal products • • •* *• . . . . « . . . « . « .

+

Q

O

~("

—

O

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.

4 -

+

+
_

+ -f




O*

+

0

—
+
+

+

0*4"
4 - +
-

— 0
- O

.

l

+

+ + +
Q

+

+

^ - - ( .

+

+

+

+

+

-

O

4"
+
+

4"
+

+ + +
_

+

--O

+

+

_

_

_

H

r

O

"

t

*

O

—

—

~

+

•**

+

O

O

+

+

+

—

—

— +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
.

+

+

Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

Table 6.-DJRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.-(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders^, Durable Goods Industries

3-Eonth spans

21 industry components

r-i

tS3

i

&, -P

>

j

0

§

H
3 ® i O I O SB
^ -5 1 w o sa ef l

k i H 1&

<£!

g

£

^J<

W

^ 5 ' f H ^, > » s i ; i H Q S A - P > o
^ a j p ^ M ^ p s ^ S f f l o i o j p
<
K
h
t
c

^
f ?
t
?^
43? > ^o £f, £ > ^ i ^ ? ^ S?c i ? M O ,

o o Q s a J Q ^ a ^ p ^ ^ o
O a i « t ^ E s 4 2 j - ; < S | - a ^ ' E s ! C O

1963

1962

1961

1960
I

§ « I a. |- §
^ ^ ^ l ^ i ^ S j g a •? T =? "M T
-P > o d ^ tt
S3

J2

«

^

>>

d

^

W)

0, -P

>

0

- P > O r f J > ^ h > » g r H t l O < D^
C
O O W
f i '
O B ® s^ S^ f S - ^ ^^ P^ *- ^a P^ 3^ 3C Q

CJ

O

ffl

«J

<D

^

29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 62 62 62 43 48 43 62 43 62 38 52 52 43 52 67 57

- + - + - -

Primary nonf errous metals
QtlT*1" pT*iEa"py fflotsls

- - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - -

Radio, television, and equipment
Other electrical equipment*
Motor vehi cles

...*..
-

4-

-

+

4-

-

o

+ + + + - + - _ + - + +
- - 4 - 4 - 4 - - + - 4 - - 4 - -

4-4-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

Aircraft

**

. .

.

^<

r^

O*

Stone, clay, and glass products
I

* 1 ' H

t

' 1

^b '

* *

"

+

t

+

+

+

*

4 - - - - 4 -

Engines and turbines*

+

4 - 4 - -

-

_ +

4 - - - - - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 -

+

i-t

2

Construction machinery*
Office machines*,
Household appliances
Fabricated metal products*

-

+

-

-

-

-

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Includes durable goods industries not available separately.




Table 6.»D!RECTIOh w, ; CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.~(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks

3-month spans
1961

1960

• 24 industry components1

rH
d

W>
3

ft
<D

-P
O

>
O

O
0)

§'

HS < w o a Q 7
+

J3

f-i

IH

S C J r H

T O^C f h ^
^ l ^- ?
>
!
a

W ) f t - P

> O

ft

jd
S

p
1-3

3
t-a

£ o
<$ CO.

£,a
03

0>

^

al

h

^

f

0

h^

0

:

»

O O ( p f l )

-

+

_

_

_

o

+

+

_

Tobacco ( cisarette manuf acturinK } •
Textile weavers *
. *•••
••• * • • • * . . * • > •

Q ) r f
<

ftdpp^

CD

S<*JS»-3i-3<jco

n

i

_

_

_

fl

^3

tH

* ^ ^

^
&

>»

fl

Js 3

7 t =f 1 1 •*?
-P
O

>
O

0

fl)

h
«J

-D
<D

i
ij

i fl AT QT ^^ an

_

_

4-

+

4-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+
+
+
+ 4- 4_ - _ - - +

_

-

_

_

_

+

+

_

+

_

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

"
+ . +

- - - - -

+

Building materials composite Steel
Metal fabricating

O

+

—

4-

+

-

—
+
4-

—

4-

+

4-

+

4-

,

+

4-

_

_

_

+

+

+

.

+

+

+

fo

+

h—i

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

4-

+

4-

4-

4-4-

+

S
+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

.

+

+

,

+

"*"

en
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

• « • • • • • •• • .

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4-

+

4-

4-

4-

° + +

+

+

+

4 - +

+

~ ~ 7 ~ 7

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

- - - - - 4 4 - 4 - - _ - -

_

_

+

_

+
+

4 - 4 - 4 +
+ +

-

-

Retail stores composite
Life insurance

o

•

Mining and smelting
Coal, bituminous

Automobiles

>

ftbiJp30Q)OO{p

O!s;«»-3Ct

51 64 39 36 42 76 94 96 96 95 94 71 57 58 55 56 62 73 *iP y n "^ft ^^

500 stock 'prices

>^flr-jtiOft-p

^
? 1 t S <^ ? 1 : ' ^ T ' J ' l l ' f T ' T f 1 ? ' ? 1 ? ' ?
? :
t
H ^ > i , d H b O f t 4 J > O f l X > ^ h > > d r H t ( O f t

f ^

i ^ i 4 b * 8&a*&*3!*Z %Z&

•$

1963

1962

_

-

+

-

+

+

_

«

+

+

+

+

+

+

- H 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

-H

+

4-

+

+

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
1
The 24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index.
2
Based on 85 industries, July 1960 to November 1960, and on 82 industries thereafter.




Toble 6.--DIRECT10N OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.~(D23) index of Industrie! Materials Prices

3-month spa

1960
j | |
H 2 <© -P 0 i Q> §
ws a 0 > o
;j

jDf-(
d > r

f-(
> > C ! r - j t s O a * - P
>
t S X r f ^ j d ^ ® O O

0
©

t-»

•<

CO 0

S

Q

" - s ^ g ^ S ^ i - s ^ t W O K Q
1
1
1
1
I
t
1
1
t
t
1
t

<<

X

!•?

<tt

</l

os^5»-3et,s<i;s'-3'~5<i!«i

-P

Percent rising
All industrial materials

»•?

>

Hides (Ib . )
Ros in ( 100 Ib . )
Rubber (ib )
Tallow ( Ib . )

^ > s g r - « t l O a *

XI
^ S

^ ^ .
<

^ S

t > » d r H W J a - P >
t

- 3 * - 3

<

a

0

? W O S «

i i i ^ i i ^ ^ i i .
^ ; Q t - 3 ^ t | J 5 *

a

* l S

t

~ 3 * ~ 3 *

3

fl

5}

JQ
fn
CD Jrf

t-(
>>
^0. ^

ri

3

3 IE i i J. i
O

O

^

OJ

0)

«f

J U i

46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46 Sft 62 54 42 50 42 42 23 23 42 65 79 67

Copper s crap (ib.)
Lead scrap (ib.)
Steel scrap ( ton)
Tin (Ib )
Zinc (Ib.)
Burlap (yd .)*........
Cotton ( Ib ) "14 nwrl^et averapp
Print cloth (yd.) average
Wool tops (ib )

O d X f f n

1963

1962

1961

Oct-Jan

13 industrial materials components

+ -f +
+

4-

o — —
o o o o o o
- + +
- _ -f HA

M

^

+

^<
r*
n

+

+

+

+

,

+ + + +

+

+

o

o

o +

o

o

+
+

+ +

4-

0

+

+

+

0

+

+ + + + +
+

+

+ + +

+

+ + •»-+

o

+

+

o

o

+

+

+

o

o

o

o

_

o

o

o
+

-

~
+

+

>

h^

^
on

+ = 1 rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
^-Da- .'or January 16.




Ser ies components are not seasonally adjusted.

a

Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.-(D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs

3-nionth spans

-p
Q) M

as
a

1960

cti FH

26 area components

«

sa

1961

rH

bfl

ft

-P

>

0

3

3

<D

O

O

0>

ci-O

^i

f*

| > » c i H M f t - P

>

o

C ^ l

« j a
^ f e
f
A jrt 3 A 3 <B JO > > Po o Ad J 0» f ^f ^ f^ t i b r r jt tp l3 o < »t 4 ^o> j
f. A P & A. Q (
o
)
^
ft
<u s <-3 •-a <*; to O a Q t - ^ f e S ^ S ^ t - s ^ C O O S O

1-3 «; co o fe Q

,Q CO

5

Percent rising
47 labor market areas1

1963

1962
t-t

h

^ C r H M f t H J

>

0

) j a f t j j 3 ^ 3 Q ) o o j i )
S - ^ S ^ ^ - ^ a i o s s Q
O f l ^ - l fn h > » S ^ W ) f t
t D a J a > a 3 f t t ^ P :3 ^ a j
-3(^S<!Sl~3 -^' a!CO

i i i t i7
O

2

a

.1-3

fe

£

38 19 34 21 46 36 47 47 68 62 66 53 62 68 62 81 87 66 3# 68 87 79 30 13 36 45 72 53 62 45

NORTHEAST REGION

7
16
1
1
1
21
4
ft
23

Boston
Buffalo*
Newark
New York

_ _ + _ + _
+ + +

Philadelphia*.

+ + + - - - + + --_ _ - _ + _ -+ +
- + - + _ _ -+ +

_ _ + • +

+

_

+

_

_

+

_

+

+ + +

+ + + +

+

Pittsburgh**
Providence*^

+ + - - + + _
+ - + + + - + +
+ + + + + + + +

+
+

+

+

+•

-

+

' +

+

+

+

+

+

•*+

+
+

+ +

+ +

^<
rt

NORTH CENTRAL REGION

O

3

i#
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
g

.

...

..

*

.

..
^

+

+

-

+

of

4_

-

+
_

+

_

-

+

-

-

+

-

_

_

+

+ +
--__

+

_ _

Columbus

+

+ + +
+ + +-+
. _ _ + _
+ 4

+ + _ _

-»-t-

+

_

+

4.

+

-t*
+

+ +

+

-

+

+ +

+

+

- + - + - +

-H

+

+

+

+

+

a
Cft
+

+

+ +

+

_

+

+

Triii -id

SOUTH REGION

20 Atlanta
12 Bait imor e
17 Dallas
14

-

-

+
_

-

+ +

_

+

_

_

+
+

+
- - +

+
+ +

+ + + + + +
- - - » - + + _

WEST REGION

2
24 Portland
6
19 Seattle

+

_

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

- - rising; o = unchanged; + = falling.
Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
NA = not available.
^Denotes areas of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in December 1962 as designated by BBS.
**Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in December 1 6 as designated by BES.
92
1(
rhe percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.




Toble 6-DIRECTION OF CHAKGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
F.—(041) Number of Employees in Nonagriculturol Establishments
1-nonth spans

30 industry components

,-j

so a* -P

>

o

fl ft

Jl ^

•i

1i
3 3. & S £ S •? (S £ §
i
i
i 4, 3 Q J. i o a5 J> ai i if. .3
& A. o o
OJ
pi 3
a >-3 p., S § £ ;_.
>.

£

fl

r

1 ^

3

I-3

All nonagri cultural establishments

t--,

CO

<

2J

O

t_> a -P >
3 & 8i §i aio
t i

r-j

(SO

ft

-P

>

, £ - Q J H j - i > , g r H w a - p > o

I4f?^!^^^
O f J ^ J

_

_

o o + o
_

_

_

.

_

o

o + - + o

i-

-

,

_ _ _ _ _ _

+ _

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

-

-

+ +

-

o + +

f
+ -f

_

- - + - + + - - - o + - - o
—
_ _
— —
+ +
_ +

+

+

_

_




-

O

+

O

+

O-

+

+

-

+_

— +

+

+

OO

—

<D

sd

ft

-1

3

O

d

Xf

^t

^

>.

+

_ + + • * - + - - - +

-

+

- - + + + - -- + + - - o + o - - + + + 0+

+

-

0

-

+

+ o - + + - o + + - + +
o - - - - - - - + + + -J.
0 O - O - - - o + 0 O

+
-

- + -

+
-

+

+

O +

+

O

O

__

-

+

OOO

+
-

+ +
+ o

+

-t-

_

o

-

-

+

+ + - + + +

+

,

o + + + + +

+ +

+ + +
+ - -

+

+
-

+
-

-

O O - O
+
+ + + 0 + + + - + - - -

-

+

-

0

-

+

+

-*•
—

+
+

o
o

o
—

+ +

+ +
+ + +

0

-0
^

_

o

+

_

_

+

-

-

o + o

0

+

0

+

+

+

0

+

-_

^<s
r^

+

o

--- - --

+

--

-

- + + + + + --+
-+O
+ + + + --

—

+ - - + - - + - - + + +

+ '++ o +o +- +!
-

o

+

+ - * - - - + - +

- -+-

o o - -+ +
o - + - +

+

+ + _ _ - _

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.

- + +
- + -

_

_

Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal government
State and local government

- + -

+

+

Mining

ol

f ^f ^ i 1

o + - + -

__

_ _ _ _ _ _
Printing and publishing

t * O j X - P >

r>

+ _ + + _ _
+

0

- + + + + -f O + - + +
- o + + 0
t- + - + + +

-

Textile mill products

M > » E j r - j

9 3 © o o ® a S Q > a j c X j a 3 3 0 < - » o o
>-9 <«; CQ o ^ Q » - 5 f e S < S ' - . ' ~ 3 < ; c o o _ 2 :

—

Fabricated metal products

fn

35 30 22 30 20 12 33 33 75 67 85 87 5 3 53 37 65 70 53 33 82 82 90 7Q 63 48 40 30 48 32 50
o
- - - - i- 0 - + + + +

Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

1963

1962

1961

1960

0

0

0

+ + +
+

+

+

-

0

-

-

o o o

- - - -

-

o -

— +

+

— O

O

+ + + + + + + -+

-

+

+

O +

+

+

o

+

+ + + + +

+--

- -

-+-

+

t t

+

+ + t + + + +
0 - + + +

0

- ^ - + ^• + + +
0

Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

S
o

Toble 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-.Continued
G.-(D47) Index of Industrial Production
1-month spans

1961

1960

24 industry components

r-j
p

>->
I

CJ
3
•-3

Percent ris ing1

W)
0

<
I

H
d
1-3

PL,
(D

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O

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O

0
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2 <D o
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o
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«j o
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X> *-i t*
J t D o j f
3 ( i < j ^ < t
s3 .£> ^
f l j o ^

Q h s p c ^ S

>
X
; j
^
a

1963

1962

* 3 H W> P« -P E>
j d i D p ^ C D U o a
^ H ^ > - 3 < i l O T O I ^
> » C r 4 t i D a * - P
i r f p ph ^ J Q j o

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d Du al
S < S

50 31 19 48 27 21 48 29 58 90 83 88 75 65 23 88 71 62 19 71 60 71 71 62 67 54 67 29 48 56
o
- - - - 40
- + O

DURABLE GOODS

;:::::

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

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_

+

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4-

- - - - -

4-

4-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 0

Transportation eoiiipment* • * * • * •

••

* *•

0
0
+

4-

4-

+
4-

4o

4-

_ - + + + + + + -

+ + •+

- - 0 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - -

-

-

4-

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44-

4-

44-

444-

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0 - 4 4-

4-

4-

4-

+

4-

-

o

44-

4-

44-

4-

44-

4-

+ -o

-

4-

4-

-

4- NA

- - 4 - 4 - 4 - + - 4 - O 4 - 4 - O
0 + - 4 - 4 - 4 - 0 - 4 - 4 - 4 - -

-

+
-

+
4-

+
4-

+
4-

+ ' 4- 4-

+
-

44-

-

O

O

4-

4-

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + + + Q + + + +

- 4- 4 _ 0

4-

4+

4- +
- 4 - 4 4- -

4-

—

—

0

+

-

+

+

+

+

- 4 - 0
4- 0
-

_

+

_

4-

4-

4-

4-

4 - 4 - 4 -

_

:::;::

-

-

Furniture and miscellaneous

-

+

. 4-

4-

4-

4-

NONDURABLE GOODS

-

4-

-

4-

-

-

0

-

+

-

-

-

- 4 - +

+

+

-

+

- - 4 - -4-

0

+

-+-

4 - 4 - 4 - 0

+

-

+

- 4 - 4 - 4 -

0 4 - -

- NA
4- NA
NA NA
- NA
+
o NA
NA NA
4-

-

Tobacco products

<•

*

• * • « *

*»

*

*«»•

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

-

4-

4-

4-4-

4-

-

4-

4-

+

4-

4-

NA NA
NA NA

MINERALS
Coal

4-

44_

_

44-

4-

4-

- - - 4 - 4 +

_

+

__

- O 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +

+

o

-j--i-

+

o
-H

0
0
- 4

- 4- 40 O 4- - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 -

4-

-

o
+
44-

4-

-

4-

4-

- 4 - 0
4-

4-

-

4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA = Not available.
^•The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.




^<
f-fr
^—.
o

Analytical Measures

46
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Cyclical Patterns

47

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

I I I I f I M M II I I t! 1 I I I I I I I I I

- Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Index

Reference trough dates

i n i t i TTT n 1 1 1 IT MI r I rrr 11

Index

9. Construction contracts
awarded, c'omm. and indus
bldgs.2

Reference trough dotes

105 r-

1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.

100*

*100

29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg. I

95

1

150
140
130

24. Mfrs/ new orders,
mach. and equip, Indus.

120
110

100*

-I 90

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference troughs

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I* or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "TOO". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.




48

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

Index

__— Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
.
_ _ July 1957-Oct. I960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
______ May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Minimi

Index

Reference trough dotes

150

140

13. New business incorpo
rations

&A
17. Price per unit of
labor cost

130

120

no
MOO

23. Industrial materials
prices

160
150

19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

140
130
120
110
MOO

90

80 »-

.
-12

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of * I1* or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period* Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns

49

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle*
PERIOD COVERED

U I I I I M f I I I I I I I I I f I I I1

- Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
> July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Index

Reference trough dates

43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]

Index

41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods

*100
100*

s

95 -

I M I ) l l I I I I I M I 1 I I M I I 1 1 I I 1M I i 1 J M I I I I I
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100",
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle,
PERIOD COVERED

Index

• Nov. 1948 • Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
U I M t M I I I M II I I I I H I I I I I I I I

Reference trough dates
51. Bank debits outside NYC

-12

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

-12

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns

51

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
HBMMMMHMMMIHM*HBM«HMINNMMMB>«HHMmMnM«MMHM«MMM*MI^HHMMMB>MNM^BBMi^^

Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.

Index

120

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans

64. Mfrs.' inventories
alt mfg. industries

90L
-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

•6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "1001*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at *100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
vn
2
Last two quarters anticipated.



52

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

n i t i n i TI i T I 1 1 n 1 1 1 H 1 1 1 rn i

From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of1949

—

Index

9, Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and
Indus, bldgs.3

1958
1961

1954 —•

Index

-^- Specific trough dotes

T U I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I | I I I IT]
-< Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek,
prod, workers, mfg.

lOii

100*

MOO
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24. Mfrs, new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus

120 100*
*100 L,

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100", For aeries with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
*See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
3
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in
table 1.



53

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
»"/

1

n i M I T\ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2

rrr^jn specific trough dotes to 30 months later.
Specific^ trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—

Index

- Specific trough dates

1949
1954

Index

115

17* Price per unit of
labor cost

13. New business
incorporations

110

105

100*

200
180

23' Industrial materials
prices

160

140

120

100*
I I I I I I I I I M I I I M ll I I I 1 I I I I I I I I

0

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

I 1 I I I II I I I] I I H I ! I M M I I MI II

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

Months from specific troughs

* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". VCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




54

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS. -Con.

CHART 5

Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

I II

From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—

IM II

II II

Index

- Specific trough dates

1958
1961

1949
1954

I I I I H I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I

I IIM

Specific trough dates

43. Unemployment rote, total
[inverted]

41. Employees in
establishments

- 105

100*

MOO L~

0

1 j I I i I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I M I 1 (M hM i II
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30

Months from specific troughs

1 I M 1 I M 1i M I I I M I I I M I I M M I

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

Months from specific troughs

*Specific trough level* For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I* or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*, F:or series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered* on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly serie^ the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
appendix B for specific dates.
table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




Cyclical Patterns

55

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

I I I I \TT \ I I I I 1 I ITT I 1 I I I M I I I I I

From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of-

130

1949
1954

125

I I 1 I I I I ITTTi MM |MT T1

Index

Index

-<- Specific trough dates

120

135

•<- Specific trough dates
50. GNP in 1954 dollars

130
125

115
110

49. GNP in current dollars
120

105

115

100*

110

105

MOO

150
53. Labor income in mining,
mfg.r and construction

140

130r
125

130

52. Personal income

120

120
115

110

110

105
100*

MOO

0

1 II . I I j 1 1 I I I M M I I M II 11M M i
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

0

I I 11 1 I I I M [ 1 M I 1 I 1 I I 1 I 1 1 I I I M
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30

Months from specific troughs

^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or *2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at MOO*. For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
^or the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table !„



Cyclical Patterns

56

Table '/.--PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with & "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 5 ) the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is
4,
used ag the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, 67) is the reference peak quarter. See also
MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected aeries

MDnths
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
after
beginning in—
reference July July Nov. Mar. June Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
1933
1938
trough1 1921
1924 1927
1954
1949
1958
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2 . Aocpselon rate, manufacturing
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted )
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
^oods Industries
*
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contract a awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs,, floor space2...
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv. )
.
16 . Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Price oer unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock priees, 500 common stocks....
23 » Index of industrial materials priees
24, Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries . . . . . . . .
.......
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits ...»
*..

22
21
21

NA
94.0
38.9

96.0 100.4
37.7 90.2
^5-9 104.9

73.8
84.1
56.5

94.0 101.3
76.0 104.9
63.5 101.9

98.5
86.3
70.0

22
22

147-4 110.8
161.1 129.0

21

45.0 112.5

21
22
18
22
22
22

85.6
96.3 112.0 61.2 81.6 94-2 140.9
17.7 120.3 82.2 326.6 89.6 100.0 81.8
96.0 90.4 120.8
4.4 117.0 97.5 122.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
m. 103.7 101.0
98.2 133-3 240.4 30.8 75.5 149.7 190.5
67.4 88.4 97.7 178.2 89.4 110.4 109.0

86.2
59.8
113.5

100,5
117.3
188
1.

47.7 96.7 156.2 126.7 112.7
24.4 155.7 119.1 105.2 120.0
19.4

85.0

111.5

132.6

100.5
92.9
129.6
110.3
115. 3

105.7

108.0

HI. 9
84.5
103.1
103.1
115,0
100.5

96,7
103.6
111.1
102.5
113.4
92.0

119.7
111.4

113.5

22

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

142.9

22

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

22
22
22
18
18
22
22
22

9.
07
NA
111.4
NA
NA
97.2
NA
197
0.

95.8
NA
102.0
115.7
113.2
111.9
113.6
107.8

105.2
NA
113.2
110.3
112.5
127.7
113.9
105.4

81.9
0.2
73.8
63.7
79.8
50.5
63.6
70.4

98.7
70.2
93.8
102.4
106.5
98.0
100.4
103.7

106.0
118.9
117.0
122.8
1 .
U 4
160
2.
121.2
114.8

104.1
60.6
105.8
111.3
106.9
122.0
114.8
111.8

102.6
84.9
108.6
109.0
149
0.
196
1.
111.2
107.1

101.9
92.6
108.8
110.0
106.6
119.2
112.2
108,9

22

68.8

94.2

91.6

84.8

95.8

109.5

105.9

101.8

99.5

18

56.8

34.3

84.1 114.4 116.8

89.0

105.6

64. Manufacturers ' inventories book value

22
21
21

78.9
NA
NA

93.0
NA
NA

67. Bank rat £8 on short-term business loans,
19 eltise ( Q)
..

21

89.9

91.7 121.8

134.2

NHEP. ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
eotabliohments . . . . . . .
.......
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
47. Index of industrial production
49. Grose national product in current dollars(Q)
50. Grose national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
31. Bank dels its outside NYC 343 centers
52 * Personal income
55. Index of wholesale priees, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and

L04. 5 124.0

63. Wage ana salary eost per unit of output,
92.4
NA
NA

85.0
72.3
59.6

98.1
100.6
119.2

66.0

92.1

106.4 104.3
98.7
0.
128.7 1 8 4
98.5
165.6 136.9 119-6

97.0
103.8
115.2

110.6

93. a

115.9

111.0

NA Not available.
^-Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




Cyclical Patterns

57

Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER TH£ REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS

For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough'month is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, 67) is the reference trough quarter. See
also MOD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Percent change from reference trough of expansion
Months
beginning in—
after
reference July July Nov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr.
1938 1949
1954
1933
1958
trough1 1921
1924
1927

Feb.
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

22
21
21

-0.6
HA +5.0
+2.3
0.
NA +75.7 +23.4 H 7 0
NA +48.1 +47.9 +78.3

22
22

KL08.9 -1.1 -13-7 +I4d3
+64.6 , +39-1 -42.5 +62.0

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs,, floor space2...
14.
16.
17.
19.

Current liabilities of bus . . failures (inv.)
Corporate profits after taxes ( ) .
Q.
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....

21 '+65.2 +62.0 +30.8 +61.7
21 '+18. 3 +30.0 +7.9
'
22 +4.9 +33-4 -10.8
m +67.9 +64.1
18
NA
m
m
22
22 +32.8 +28.0 +83-5
22 +61.1
+5-3 +0.2

+1.0
+3*9
+18.9 +26.5
+8.3 +95.8

+2.5
-15.3
+50.0

+60.9 +68.9 +36.3 +31.6
+65.8 -17.3 -12.0 +25.2

+19.9
+28.5

+72.2 +29.2 +36.9 +34.4

+15.9

+48.6
+12.3
+36.3
+8.7
+31.7
+15.6

+4.2
+7.3
+28.6
+4.1
+0.8
-3.5

+7.8 +2.0
-15.6 +18.1
+28.1 +51.9

-22.8
-5.2 -9.9 +19.3
+295.7 +21.7 -14.8 -14.2
N& +287.5 +24.7 +43.7
+2 '.2
N4 +4.1
NA
+48.6 +20.2 +44.1 +50.6
+8.8
+66.7 +33.5 +47.1

24. Value of .manufacturers' new orders, machin22

HA

HA

HA

NA

HA

NA +49.7 +42.8

+18.2

22

HA

HA,

HA

HA

HA

HA

HA

+9.5

+38.4

22
22
22
18
18
22
22
22

+31-5
HA
+63.3
NA
+17.1
+25.4
+29.6
+14.6

+10.1 +11.7
+25.0 +147.3
+38.6 +27.8
+16.3 +27.0
+16.9 +16.0
+17.3 +31.2
+12.7 +26.7
+25.3 +15.2

+7.8
+37.1
+16.3
+13.4
+10.1
+20.0
+15.0
+12.6

+7.0
+50.3
+26.4
+11.7
+9.1
+23.4
+11.6
+10.9

+3.9
+24.5
+15.7
+10,9
+8.7
+16.4
+11.4
+13.1

22

29. Index. of new private housing units author-

+9.2

+1.2 +15.3

+6.8

+2.3

-0.3

+100.0 +40.9 +43.0 +22.3 +10.8

+13.3

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers

+9.6 +19.8
+10.4
HA +41.8
HA
+25.0 +22.4 +55.2
+9.9 +26.3
+18.4
+13.6 +10.0 +10.8
+15-5 +17-5 +32,4
+14.1 +11.3 +29.3
+9-9 +5 A +24.6

55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities

+3.1

-1.5

+16.5

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment total (Q)»
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,

18 +65.6 +49.7 +41.2

-6.2 +15.9
HA +21.9
HA +24.8

22 -12.3
HA
21
NA
21

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities ( $ •
()'

-9.6
HA

21 -16.6

+4-5 +26.6

HA

15.3

-5-5 +11.5 +2.9 -7.1
+6.3 +40.7 +14.9 +3.5
+27.8 +33-4 +32.4 +18.5

-4.5
+6.5
+11.4

-5.6 +15.5 +16.3 +28.1

+1.0

NA Not available.
^•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3~term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




58

Cyclical Patterns
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS

For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53), the
figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 9, 13,
17> 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base,
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnote* to appendix G.

Selected series

Months
after July
specific 1921
trough1

24

NA

95.6

per unit of labor cost index.. *.««••*•
of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
of industrial materials prices
of manufacturers' new orders, machln-

NA

NA

24

Price
Index
Index
Value

38.9
80.2

NA

NA

m

84.4
58.2

92.5

95.0
104.5
94.7 107.1
NA
m
NSC
132.1
54.0
79.4

19
22
23
26
24
26

17.
19.
23.
24.

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Aug.
1954

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commgreial and industrial bldgs,, floor space2...

July
1924

68.7

93,2

NSC

99.0

NSC 92.2
61,5
NSC 130.8
62.8
m 107.5
91.0 100.9
53.4 136 a 171.7 114.4
83.0 121,5
63.3
91.1

15.4
65.4
M
29.1
66.2

81.4
75.8

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

94.6

99.0

97.1
3

no.5
90.1
100.1
1,04.9
90.5

105.1

112.9

72,3

104.5

29. Index of new private housing unite authorNA

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagrieultural
43.
47.
49.
50.

Unemployment rate total (inverted). . . . .
....
Index of industrial production
Grocss national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.

53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 . Sales of retail stores

22
19
23
18
18
24
22
23

90.7
95.7 101.7
NA
NA
NA
109.1 104.1 111.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA 111.1 106.2
NA
NA
NA
105.0 , NSC
NSC

81.9 98.2
NA 70.6
93.8
68.9
63.7
97.5
75.5 100.0
66.0 100.1
57.7 93.0
73.0 103,0

24

+12.6

-7.9

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Constriction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldge,, floor space2...
17.
19.
23 »
24.

Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of Industrial materials prices
Value of manufacturers' new orders, maehin-

19
22
23
26
24

101.6
104.1 102.5
65,0
72.1
88. 5
105.2 107.8 107,1
110.0
110.9 107.7
106.6
107.5 104.0
J
112.1 110.9
ii;i,3
110.9 108.0
105.5
109.4
110.4 107.1
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning In year shown

+5*5

-3.4

+11.4

105.9
115.2
115.5
114.4
111.5
121.9
123.0
NSC

+6.7

+3o3

+3.1

+88,1 +66.5 +22,9 +59.1 +79.2 +97.4
NSC +34.3
NSC +43.7
+14.9 +26.7 +16.8
+4.8 -5.0 +6.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA +15.1
+7.2 +8.4
NSC +9008 -2.2 +63.9 +93.2 +38.3
+24*5 +55.2
+42.8 +7.6 -24.4 +78.0 +34.1 +80.1 +21.2 +15.1

26

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

24

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

+31.5 +10.4
+7.3 +19.8 +10,1
NA
NA
NA +25.2 +28.8
+60.0 +27.5 +20.4 +50.0 +41.9
NA
NA
NA +26.3 +16.3
NA
NA
NA +12.1 +15.3
+29.9 +15.3
+8,9 +34.2 +14.6
NA
NA
NA +62.2 +27.2
NSC
NSC +29.3 +25.4
+19.3

+11.7
450.5
+28.3
+18.7
+14.2
+28.5
+40.7
NSC

29. Index of new private housing units author -

132. 7 +58.5 +41.7
NA +17.1

+4.7
3

+17.1
+5.4
+4.4
+16.6
-1.0
+21. 1

+40.0

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagrieultural

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..

22
19
23
18
18
24
22
23

+7.8
+54.0
+16.9
+13.9
+11,6
+13.5
+20.0
+14.2

+7.0
+3.9
+39.2 +26.5
+25.9 +15. 8
+11.5 +10.9
+8.3 +8.7
+12.2 3+11.9
+17.3 +11.1
+12 . +13.6
0

NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based o;n period from most recent specific trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The 2 number is the same for each expansion. Specific trough and peak dates are shown in appendix B.
Exeept J?or 1961, changes are computed In a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
3
Sinoe no speeifio trough has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) and high (H) shown in table 1.




APPENDIXES
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designation. Therefore, when appendixes are dropped from an issue, the continuity is interrupted.
However, appendixes that are dropped will be listed with the latest date of
publication.
"Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program", not included in this issue, was included in March 1962.




Appendixes

60

Appendix A,»BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)

Business cycle
reference dates

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

Trough
December 1834
December 1358
Juno 1861
Decamber 186?
December 1870
March 1879

Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)

June 1857
October i860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1 7 . . . .
83....
Maroh 1882

XXX

18
8
32
18
65

30
22
46

XXX

If
34
36

21
36
99

40
54
50
52
101

48
30

60

May 1885
April 1388
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

March 186?
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
- June 1899
September 1902

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

40
30
35
42
39

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 19H
March 1919
July 1921

May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44
lo

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
Juno 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953

14
13
43
13
1
11

2?
21
50

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
21
45
II

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May I960.

"5

35
25

5B
44
34

48
34

13

22

S&
37
45

9

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 eyeleo, 1854-196.1
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

3

46

5

48

NOTfih Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
*25 cycles, 1857-1960,
*21 cyeles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.




Appendixes

61

Appendix B.--5PEC1F1C TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS

Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
4
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. ' 9 Jan. '38 Jul.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.<24 Feb. '21

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business incorporat ions
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....
24, Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.

Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar. '21

NSC

Jun.'58

NSC

Jan. '61
Jan, '61
Oct. '60
Dec. '60

Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58

Feb. '49
NSC
Dec. '53 May '49
Sep. '53 Jun.'49
Feb . ' 54Jun.'49

Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun. '38

Oct. '60 Feb. '58 Jan. '54 Apr. '49 NA
Dec. '60 Feb. '58 NA

NA

NA

Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul.'32

Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28

Jun. '24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun. '24

Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul.'2l

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Mar. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
IstQ1 33'
NA
Mar. '33

Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NA
4thQ'26

Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NA
2nd Q' 24

Jul.'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ' 21
NA
2ndQ'21

NA
NSC

NA
NSC

NA
Mar. '22

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricul43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
54 . Sales of retail stores

Feb. '61
May '61
Jan. '61
IstQ' 61
IstQ' 61
NSC

Apr. '58
Aug. '58
Apr. '58
IstQ' 58
IstQ' 58
Feb. '58

Aug. '54
Sep. '54
Apr. '54
2ndQ' 54
2nd Q1 54
Mar. '54

Oct. ' 9 Jun. '38
4
Oct . ' 49 Jun. '38
Oct. '49 May '38
2nd Q' 49 2nd Q1 38
2ndQ'49 NA
Oct. '49 May '38

Feb. '61 Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33
May '38 Mar. '33
Jan . ' 61Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in—
Selected series

my
1960

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
May '59
workers, manufacturing. . . *
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorpoApr. '59
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. my '59
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59
23. Index of industrial mat. prices
Nov. '59
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .
Dec. '59
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q) .
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
54 . Sales of retail stores
MA not available.




NSC

Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. ' 60
2ndQ'60
2nd Q' 60
NSC

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

Jan.
1920

Nov. '55 Apr. '53

NSC

Mar. '56

Mar . ' 46Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19

NSC

Dec, '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25

May
1923

Nov. '22 NA

Jul.'46
Feb . ' 56NSC
Mar. '57 Feb. '51 Jan. '48
Jul.'56 Jan. '53 Jun.'48
Dec. '55 Feb , ' 51 Jan. '48

Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mar. '37

Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29

Oct. '25 Apr . ' 23 Dec. '19
NA
NA
NA
NSC
Mar. '23 Jul.'19
Nov. '25 Mar. '23 Apr. '20

Nov . ' 56Feb. '51 NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Feb. '55 NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ' 48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48

Jul.'37
Jul.'37
May '37
3rd Q' 37
NA
Jun. '37

Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
NA
Aug. '29

Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NA
2nd Q' 26

Jul.'23
NA
May '23
NSC
NA
IstQ' 24

Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
NA

NA
NSC

NA
Jul.'20

Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ' 57
3rd Q' 57
Aug.1 57

May '53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ! 53
2ndQ' 53
Oct. '53

May '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Apr. '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC

No specific cycle related to reference dates.

Appendixes

62

Appendix C.-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES

Monthly series

CI

I

C

I/O

I/C
for
MCD
span

MCD

Average duration of nan
CI

I

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
iflanttf acturing
2, Accession rate, manufacturing
,30. Nonagri cultural placements, all industries....
3, Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemploy-

6.03 5-31
3.41 3.H
11.94 10.46

.24
2.08
1.35
5.45

1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92

2
3
3
3

.95
.92
.55
.76

2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49

1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80

9. 82
8.35
8.6?
7.59

4.26
4-58
4.53
5.16

19-43 17.91

4.88

3.67

5

.81

1.66

1.49

7.10

3.37

.47

.0
4

6.98
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
4foedg industries
,.
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery
and equipment industries

6.12

3.16

1.94

2

.97

1.86

1.53

9.28

3.61

5.58

5-00

2.00

2,50

3

.75

1.94

1.4B 10,64

3.34

6.07

5.55

2.19

2.53

3

.73

1.68

1.47 12.82

3.56

2.75
2.19

4.34
2.71

5
3

.80
.79

1.62
1.59

1.49
1.37

3.28
8.56

3.45
3.55

2.36
2,01

3.02
1.69

4
3

.71
.67

1.82
2.29

1.69 10.14
1.67 11.46

5.23
4.46

3.44
2,57

1.67
1.30

2.06
1.98

3
3

.60
.65

1.93
2.19

1.53 12.43
1.69 9. 31

3.70
3.50

16.32 16.05

2.81

5.71

6

(i)

1.57

1.42

5.32

P..22

17.30 17.36
.56
.72
2.58 1.90

3.26
.41
1.49

5.33
1.37
1.28

6

2
2

(l)
.80
.79

1.54
2.70
2.40

1.39 e.ai
1.80 11.53
1.73 13. 5?

2.82
4,10

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings
12.3? 11.94
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment. . 6.37
5.94
27, Buying policy — production materials, percent
reporting commitments 6 months or longer
7.56 7.12
7. New .private nonfarm dwelling units started.... 4.09
3.39
29. Index of new private housing units authorised
13. Number of new business incorporations
14 • Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
'.
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vender performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
23. Index of industrial materials prices

3.90
3.04

3.36

6.17

5.53

2.76

2.00

3

.66

1.90

1.61 11.55

4.63

11.30
2.15

8.12
1.39

7.20
1.52

1.13
.91

2
1

.77
.91

3.18
2.61

2.01 9.94
1.84 11.46

3.59
2.61

.39

.22

.29

.76

1

.76

3.41

2.04 10.44

3.41

.41
4-73
5.80

.32
3.46
4.62

.22
2.91
3.26

1.45
1.19
1.42

2
2
2

.72
.64
.67

1.94
2.44
2.05

1.62 15.73
1.68 7.6?
1.38

10.30

3-44
3.48
4.3?

5.63

2.80

4.12

.68

1

.68

3.47

2.44

8.28

3.47

3.28

2.10

2.26

.93

1

.93

2.30

1.40

8.13

2.30

1.16
1.56
.9
6

.66
1.42
.43

.81
.70
.54

.81
2.03
.80

1
3
1

.81
.58
,80

4.25
1.82
3.39

1.87 11.00
1.55 10.64
1.69 21.29

4.23
4-32
3.39

1.12
1,58

.9
6

.4
8
.56

.82
2.55

1
4

.82
.70

3.63
1.84

1.80

13.55

1.43

1.6?

8.77

3^63
3.56

.30

.11

.27

.41

1

.41

5.22

2.53 L2.0S

5.22

.46

.40

1.15

2

.66

2.70

1.77

11.53

4.65

.27

.0
4

.34

1

.34

7.84

2.16

13.55

7,84

.49
.28

.84
1.12

.58
.25

1
1

.58
.25

6.48

2.61 13.55
2.29 18.66

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force
43* Unemployment rate, total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
newspapers
47.
51.
52.
S3-

Index of industrial production
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
Personal income
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
const ruction
54 • Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
output, total manufacturing
.6
6
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all
manufacturing industries
.88
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industries.
.99
66. Consumer installment debt
1.19
See footnotes at end of table.



8.7Q

6.48
8. 79

Appendixes

63

Appendix C.-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

i/c

CI

I

C

.28
7.17
7.49

.17
6.91
7.23

.23
1.31
1.46

.74
5.27
4.95

1
5

3.72
3.39
3.02
3.52
8.06
8.29
25.35 24,41
15.57 15.00

1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88

29.19

29.33

6.21

2.08

.64

1.97

1.32
1.29
.98
1.32
1.61
1.79
1.70
2.09

1.03
1.29
.88
.82
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15

.68
.9
4
.52
.88
.98
.65
.81
1.60

CI

Monthly series

I

MCD

I/C
for Average duration of run
MCD
C
MCD
I
CI
span

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81.
82.
83.
86.

Index of consumer prices
Federal cash payments to the public
Federal cash receipts from the public.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
87 • General imports , total
94. Index of construction contracts, total value..
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement...
91. Defense Department obligations, total,
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi-

5

.74
.92
.96

4.48
1.47
1.70

2.18
1.39
1.52

19.89
7.59
5.96

4.48
2.30
2.55

2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21

3
3
4
6
5

.69
.79
.96
'M
.99

1.89
1.71
1.67
1.58
1.49

1.51
1.57
1.47
1.51
1.41

7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.67

4.08
3.06
2.93
2.44
2.40

4.72

6

<x)

1.61

1.50

5.38

2.76

.32

1

.32

5.96

2.14

16.70

5.96

1.51
2.63
1.69
.93
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72

2
3
2
1
2
3
3
1

.82
.87
.98
.93
.4
6
.80
.63
.72

2.91
2.41
3.44
3-92
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37

1.95
1.93
2.27
2.92
1.62
1.70
1.67
1.77

17.11
15.40
15.50
9.31
17.78
17.00
22.00
23.57

5.28
6.91
6.13
3.92
4.08
5.09
9.50
3.37

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121.
122,
123.
47.
125.

OECD European countries, index of indus, prod. ..
United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
Canada, index of industrial production
United States, index of industrial production.
West Germany, index of industrial production..

127. Italy, index of industrial production.

i/c
Quarterly series

C

I/C

for
QCD
span

QCD

Average duration of run
CI

I

C

QCD

2.82
2.83

1.48
1.65

5.17
3.64

2.82
2.83

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations

•. 11.15

7.66

7.00
4.54

7.59
5.35

.92
.85

1
1

7.73

5.06

5.01

1.01

2

.51

2.83

1.42

5.67

3.85

5.78

3.73

4.17

.89

1

.89

2.89

1.49

5.50

2.89

1.13
1.59
1.45

.58
.43
.57

1
1
1

.58
.43
.57

3.19
4.25
4.64

1.50
1.42
1.46

5.10
6,38
7.29

3.19
4.25
4.64

2.94

.51

1

.51

4.64

1.55

5.67

4.64

18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries

.92
.85

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49. Gross national product in current dollars
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)

1.44
1.88
1.60

.65
.69
.82

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip3.61

1.49

63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
1.02
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
.
. . . 2.96
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufac6.27

See footnotes on following page.




.60

.84

.71

1

.71

2.68

1.31

7.29

2.68

1.94

2.37

.82

1

.82

2.68

1.55

6.38

2.68

1.26

5.79

.22

1

.22

4.38

1.94

5.83

4.38

64

Appendixes
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C

x

Kot computed for series when MOD is "6" or more.

The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Business Cycle^Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, eh. 17, "Electronic
Kmpiters^and'BuHnais Indicators" by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1 6 )
91.
"CI" is the average month-to-month (for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I11 is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
"MOD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the Irregvdar component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar,, etc.), 2-month opana
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5~month opans. MOD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
MOD is ,3mall for smooth series and largo for erratic series.
"QGD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance* It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"1/C" ip a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
scries.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month span^ and for spans ©f the period of MOD.
VJhon MG,) is "6% no 1/0
ratio iss shown for the MOD period. For quarterly series, I/O is shovm for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of runh is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
cbongos in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it Is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run ia shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MOD moving average. The MCI)
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MOD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the samo direction.




Appendixes

65

Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OFTHE CENSUS ORNBER
(NOVEMBER 1961 TO DECEMBER 1962)

19 51

1962

Series
Nov.

4 . Number of 'persons on temporary
'
layoff all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
unemploy. insurance, State
9. Constr. contracts awarded for
commercial and Indus . bldgs

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

105.2 118.2

9.
81

103.5 128.9 136.9 111.4

99.8

89.0 106.1

95.4 8 .
4 4 83.5 71.6
84.6 100.3 118.1 93.1
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures.
0.
106.1
95.0 101.8 1 3 6
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over... 95.4 90.1 111.4 113.1

Apr.

86.8
98.2

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept. Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

90.5

85.9 1 1 8 136.6
0.

92.3

91 1

82.7

83.9 1 1 0
0.

77.3

90.1 103 8 128 6

86.0

88 8 106 6

1 0 9 1 8 4 110.8
0.
0.
98.3 113.7 117.1 1 6 6 110.3
0.
46
95.6 8 ,
110.1 103.7 1 4 7 1 4 3 100.1 95.3 90 1 95 9 84 6 100 3
0.
0.
113.6 109.1 95.7 96.3 85.4 103.4
94.2 95.0 1 6 7 9 .
48
0.
113.4 109.6

96.9 103.2

92.3 100.5

87.6

86.3

95.3

9.
01

17. Price per unit of labor cost
100.5 98.1 99.0 100.7 101.0 100.6 100.1 101.1
9.
4 9 99.5 101.4 103 3 100 5 98 2
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol,
of sales, all mfg. corp,1
98.6
97.5
105.5
97.9
97.5
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods industries2.... 100.3 100.7 99.8 100.3 100.3
99.7 98.7 98.8 99.8 100.3 100.9 100.4 100.3 1 0 9
0.
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus... 90.3 85.2 81.8 77.6 88.8 100.2 108.9 112.5 1 4 8 115.7 122.0 111.1
0.
93.0 83.9
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
9 . 1 0 0 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99 9 100 0
99 0.
62. Index of wage and salary cost
per unit of output , total mfg . . .
99.6 99.3 99.5 99.7 98.7 105.2 100.2
99.1 102.0 101.8
98.4 96.5 99.2 1 2 0
0.
100.2 100.1 99.9 99.9
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1
99.1 90.2 99.0
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 98.8 103.5 71.6 114.9
90. Defense Department obligations—
90.1 98.9 75 2 95.9
91. Defense Dept. oblig. total
90.8 100.3 91.4 91.9
92. Military prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms
68.6 115.3
80.5 80.0
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders,
100.3 1 0 7 99.8 100.3
durable goods industries
0.
128. Japan, index of industrial pro93.9 101.5
9 . 102.9
87

0.
99.8 100.0 99.8 1 0 0 1 0 1 99.9 1 0 1 100 2 100 2 100 1
0.
0.
92.4 98.8 102.7 107.5 96.9 111.7
97.2 101.1 103.8
9.
88
74
136.7 7 . 115.0 154.8
50.2 108.7 122.3 46.5 99.4 1 4 0
0.
168
4.
117.8

78.0
94.5

76.2 220.8
88.2 156.3

51.6
82.8

79.2 100 7
86.8 99.1

84 0
98.8

90 0 98 9
90 8 100 3

125.6

94.7

94.5 229.2

68.6

67.7

82.7

68.6 115.3

100.3

99.7

98.7

99.8 1 0 3 1 0 9 1 0 4 100.3
0.
0.
0.

108.7

99.9

9. 104
99 0.

9.
88

99.3

96.6

93.2

9. 101
86 0.

100 9

98.7 102 9

Value of commercial and indus.
constr. contracts (component of
9.
49

Value of privately owned public
works and utilities contracts
(component of series 10)

83.8

86.7 '75,3

60.3

47.8

79.9

98.7 108.3 1 6 7
0.

99.7 111.1 113.6 109.6 112 9

78.1 101.9 112.3 130.2 122.6 1 7 0 111.5
1.

129.1 108.9

95 o

83 9

60.3

46 9

These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made "by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be subs'tituted whenever they are published.
Some of the series above are also adjusted for trading days.
For this reason, the original observations divided by the seasonal factors given above will not yield the seasonally adjusted figures shown in table 1.
^•Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
2
The seasonal factors are applied to the unfilled orders series; then the change in unfilled orders is computed.




Appendixes

66

Appendix F.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961

Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

41. Em- 47. Index
ployees of indusin non- trial
agri . esproductablish- tion
ments

50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1

43. Unemployment rate

51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Retail
debits
sonal
sales
outside income
NIC

Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, poak
trough
peak to
trough

4 contractions since
3940

-31.6
-18.0
-5-9
-51.8
-31.7

NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-14.1

-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.9

NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.9

-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.8

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+0.6

+8.7
-0.3

+2.2

-5.7

-16.0

-2.4

-2.9

-3.1

-6.5

Feb., 1 945-Oet , 194 54 .....
Nov 3948-Oet. 1949
July 1953-Aug 1954s
July 2957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 196l
Medtan,:6
A1 1 contractions ....
....
Excluding postwar con-

8

s
+7.9
g
+2.3
a

NA
NA
NA
-31.6
-10.4

Jaru 3 920-July 1921
May W3-Ju3y 1924
Oet, 3926-Nov. 192?
Aup>n 3929-Mar. 1933
May 1 Q37- June 1938

-16.0

-2.6

-2.9

-2.4

-2.2

-3.8

-a. 8

4.0

S
3.2
8
1.9
3

+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

a
!.
19
8
5.5
2

11.2

0.0

4.1
25.4
20.0

1.1

3.3

-3.4
-3,5

+3.4
+3.2
+1.8

4.0
2.6
4.2
5.1

6.0
7.4
6.9

-2.2

-2.6

+3.3

3.6

7.2

-3.6

-2.3

-3.4

+3.3

4.0

7.6

-0.8

-0.2

-2.1

+3.3

4.1

7.2

-o.a

Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak

+3. a

v. a

S

43. Unemployment rate

51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Retail
debits
sonal
sales
outside income
NYC

July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June

1921-May 1923
1924-Oet. 1936
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 193?
1938-Feb. 194 54

Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948.. ..
Oct. 1949-July 19535
Auf. 1954-July 1957
Apr. 1958-May I960
*fedtan:6
AX1 expansions
Excluding wartime ex4 exjpanaions since
194 -5

47. Index
of industrial
production

50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1

49 GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1

NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131/7

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+15-7
+9.9
+3.6
+63.1
+103.3

-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

4.1
^
'
25-4
20.0

+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25. a

+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11,9

+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.5

+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.4

+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5

+0.3
-5.2
-1.8
-2.3

3.3
7.8
6.0
7.4

+17.4

+35.2

+12.8

+27.9

+33.8

+27.0

+20.8

-3.7

7.1

3.3

+13.0

Expansions:
Reference trough
to reference peak

+26.6

+12.5

+21.5

+44
2.

+21.6

+16.5

-2.6

6.3

3.7

+13.0

+23.5

+12.7

+29.4

+39.0

+25.6

+23.4

-2.0

6.7

3.9

41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments

Change
in rate, Rate at Rate at
trough peak
trough
to peak
a
-8.7
a

2

11.9
3

5

a

3.2
1.9

8

2 3 3> g
11.2
1.1
3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5-1

For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with .an MOD of "3" or more (aaries 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the baoe. The base for quarterly series
(series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnote to appendix C.
e most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
a
Baoed on average for the calendar year.
3
Dl:?fers from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
Wo:rld War II contraction or expansion period,
5
Ko:?ean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M* indicates monthly series and *Q* indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by •F-OM* or *EOO*.
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and *EOQ° indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS

*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M),—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of-persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
So Average weekly initial c l a i m s for u n e m p l o y m e n t insurance.
State p r o g r a m s (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers* new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and Industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant end equipment (M).«Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing

*12.
13.
M4.
15.

*16.

corporations (Q).«Nationa 1 Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain
seasonally adjusted total.
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and
over (M).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale prices of

manufactured goods index to wage and salary cost per unit of
output Index) (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-

*19.
20.
*21,
22.
*23.
24.

poration* (Q).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
material (EOM).»Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
(Q).-*Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Index of industrial materials prices (M).»Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
from special tabulations of the Office of Business Economics

25. Change in manufacturers* unfilled orders,

durable goods indus-

tri es (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commit-

ments 60 days or longer (M).-*National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
27. Buying policy-capital expenditures, percent reporting commit*
ments 6 months or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment




29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local

building

permits (M).«Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).--Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census

31. Chance In book value of manufacturing and trade Inventories,

total (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).**
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

40. Unemployment rote, married males, spouse present (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-De-

partment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43, Unemployment rate, total (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).--National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis andBro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross notional product In current dollars (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product In 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).~Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M)»—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of theCensus
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q}.~
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62* Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (ratio of index of wage and salary disbursements in manufacturing to Index of industrial production, manufacturing)
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63* Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP In 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers* inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing Industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt, (EOM)*-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base)
*67. Bonk rotes on shorMerm business loans, 19 cities (Q).—Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse

UNITED STATES

PCNAITY rOH PRIVATC UK TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE, «SOO
tOPO)

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION Or PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, O. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS

COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES«Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81* Index of consumer prices (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).~Treasury Department,
Bvreau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Department,
Bt.reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment

total.
tal.
98.

oard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Bo
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

121.
122.
123.

84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment
85. Percent change In total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).--Board qf'Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
• ty"
86. Export*, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).~Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. tienera! Imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M)««Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards* U.S. business firms (M).—Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Fri« reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).«Boerd of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).-F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).--Deptirtment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(MOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census




rcent change In total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
Per
nd
an currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).«

125.
126.
127.
128.
...

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, Index of industrial production (M).-* Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
United Kingdom, Index of industrial production (M).--Organi ration for Economic Cooperation and Development
Canada, index of industrial production (M).— Dominion Bureau of
Statistics, Ottawa
Wesjj-0e_rmany, Index of Industrial production (M).— Organization
forK&jrforaic Cooperation and Development
France, index of Industrial production (M).« Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
Italy, index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Japan, index of industrial production (M).-The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
United States, index of Industrial production (M),-See series 47.
DIFFUSION INDEXES

The *D* preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for
Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).-Purchasing Agents Association of
Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National City Bank of
New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Brad street, Inc., no
seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight corloadtngs (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no
seasonal adjustment
D58, Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.


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