Full text of Business Conditions Digest : February 1987

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SINESS
NDITIONS
EST
ARY 1987







U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

ItCII
FEBRUARY 1 9 8 7
Data Through January
Volume 27, Number 2

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Al
7\2
A3
A4

Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Chart

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
39

74
77
—

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
C3

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds




for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through September 30, 1987.

ItCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8

AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1987 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (October 1986 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

97
98

106
110
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
Changes in this issue are as follows:

time to time to in-

1. The Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to make a
change in the calculation of the composite index of leading
indicators (series 910) effective with the publication of the
February index in the March 1987 issue of BCD. At that time,
the series on net business formation (series 12) will be suspended from the index. This suspension is necessary because
this series has deteriorated as a measure of change in the
business population, primarily because of the poor quality of
one component of the series and the unavailability of data of
another component in time for inclusion in the initial release. If net business formation had been excluded from the
index now, the index would have decreased 1.2 percent in
January, increased 2.1 percent in December, and increased 1.1
percent in November. The composite index of capital investment commitments (series 914), of which net business formation also is a component, will be discontinued in the March
issue.

corporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to

2. New seasonal adjustment factors for the 24 series
listed below have been computed using the X-ll variant of the
Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. New factors
are shown in appendix B for many of these series.
Series
number
5
9
10
12
13
15
72
112
517
525
543
570

Beginning date for
new factors
January 1987
January 1987
January 1985
January 1985
January 1985
IV Q 1986
January 1987
January 1987
January 1986
November 1986
December 1986
January 1987

Series
number
578
580
604
606
614
616
732c
733c
735c
736c
737c
738c

Beginning date for
new factors
November 1986
January 1987
January 1987
January 1987
January 1987
January 1987
December 1986
January 1987
December 1986
November 1986
November 1986
November 1986

(Continued on page iv.)
The March issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on April 6.




in

other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

3. The average weekly insured unemployment rate (series 45) has been revised for the period 1982 to date to reflect a
new seasonal adjustment by the source agency.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Office of Administration Management.
4. The series on new private housing units started (series 28) has been revised for the period 1984 to date to reflect a new seasonal adjustment by the source agency.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division.
5. The seasonally adjusted producer price indexes (series 98 and 331-334) have been revised to reflect a new seasonal
adjustment by the source agency. Series 98 has been revised for the period 1985 to date; series 331-334 have been revised
for the period 1982 to date.
The series on change in sensitive materials prices (series 99) has been revised for the period 1985 to date to incorporate the revision of series 98, which is one of its components.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Division of Industrial Prices and Price Indexes (series 98 and 331-334);
and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division (series 99).
6. The series on manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars for durable goods (series 7) and for consumer goods and
materials (series 8) and the change in inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (series 36) have been revised for
the period 1982 to date to reflect the revised seasonal adjustment of the producer price indexes used as deflators. (See
item 5, above.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
7. The seasonally adjusted consumer price indexes for all urban consumers (CPI-U)--series 320c and 322--have been
revised for the period 1982 to date to reflect a new seasonal adjustment by the source agency.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Division of Consumer Prices.
8. The series on wages and salaries in 1982 dollars for mining, manufacturing, and construction (series 53), for
which CPI-U is the deflator, has been revised for the period 1982 to date. (See item 7, above.)
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
9. The series on U.S. money supply and liquid assets (series 85, 102, and 104-108) have been revised by the source
agency to incorporate benchmark revisions and updated seasonal adjustment factors. When completed, these revisions will
extend back to 1959. They are shown in this issue for the period October 1985 to date. Revised data for the earlier
period will be shown in a later issue.
In addition, the series on U.S. money supply in 1982 dollars (series 105 and 106) have been revised for the period
1982 to date to reflect the revision of their CPI-U deflator. (See item 7, above.)
Further information concerning the benchmark and seasonal factor revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section; information concerning revisions due
to revised deflators may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
10. The series on real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (series 341) has been revised by the source agency to incorporate the new seasonal adjustment of the consumer
price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W). When completed, this revision will extend back to 1982.
Revised data are shown in this issue for the period 1985 to date. Revised data for the earlier period will be shown in a
later issue.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Wages and Industrial Trends, Division of Employment.
11. The series on real average hourly compensation for all employees in the nonfarm business sector (series 346),
for which CPI-U is the deflator, has been revised by the source agency. (See item 7, above.) When completed, this revision will extend back to 1982. Revised data are shown in this issue for the period 1985 to date. Revised data for the
earlier period will be shown in a later issue.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research.
12. Appendix C contains historical data for series 37, 42-44, 60, 90, 91, 114-116, 441, 442, 444-448, 451-453, 964,
and 968.
13.

Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 20, 21, 73, and 74.




METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1950, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1975.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.

Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\.

Economic
N . Process

^\
Cyclical \ .
Timing
N.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

1.

II.

EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
{3 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.

V.

VI.

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices ( 1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\ .
^\

Economic
Process

CyclicalX
Timing
^ K

1.

II.

V.

VI.

PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.

EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(I series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (S series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits and profit
margins (2 series)

Money (I series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
( i series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
UlL/lvrA 1 Vl\O
(41 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through -hi at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national product—personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.

4



Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section C. Labor
Unemployment

Force, Employment, and

This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1975.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1975) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1975) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data
Dec )

P

)

(Nov

I

(Nov

i

Mar )

p

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ( " 9 " = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ( " I V " = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L - 1 " is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates
quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification1

of
measure

Percent change
E

Annual average
2dQ
1986

1986

1985

3d Q
1986

4th Q
1986

Nov.
1986

Dec.
1986

Jan.
1987

Nov.
to
Dec.
1986

Dec.
to
Jan.
1987

2.3
0 .7
-0.5
1 .3

-1 .0
-0.1
0.5
-0 .6

2.2
1 .3
NA
1 .2

-1.9
- 1 .3
NA
NA

2dQ
to
3d Q
1986

3d Q
to
4th Q
1986

I

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930
940

Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio coincident index to lagging index

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing...
916 Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

L,L,i—
C,C,C...
Lg,Lg,Lg
L,L»I

967 = 100
do
do
do

do
do
do
do

L,L,L
L.L.L
L.L.L
L,L,L

169.1
160.3
127 .0
126 .3

178.2
164.5
132.2
124.4

177.5
164.5
131 .7
124.9

178.6
164.7
131 . 8
124.9

182.3
165.6
133 . 2
124 . 3

181 . 4
165.3
133.5
123.8

185.6
166 . 5
132.8
125 . 4

183.8
166.4
133.4
124.7

110.3
102.0
115.2
138.8

109.5
103.1
NA
143.8

109.8
103.1
120.0
141 .7

109.2
102.5
119.9
145.2

109.3
103.6
NA
147 . 7

108.6
103.4
117.5
147 . 0

111 . 0
104.7
NA
148.7

108.9
103.3
NA
NA

40.5
3 .3
383

40.7
3.5
370

40.7
3.4
377

40 .7
3.5
373

40.8
3.5
347

40 . 8
3.5
342

40 . 8
3.5
356

40.9
3.6
359

0.497
139

0 .501
139

0 .475
134

0.495
136

0.526
144

0.530
147

0.539
144

0.527
142

182.30 186.44 1 8 5 . 6 8
1 0 3 . 9 7 1 0 6 . 4 3 106 . 0 8
99.85
97 . 6 1 1 0 0 . 1 7
2 4 , 9 3 0 2 4 , 9 40 2 4 , 9 5 2

186 . 5 0
106 . 8 7
100.32
24,872

188.15
107 . 2 4
101 . 0 6
24,892

188.58
107 . 2 2
101.07
24,891

188.45
107 . 4 8
101.29
24,920

189.16
107.87
101.74
25,054

0.6
0 .1
0 .1
0 .

-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
2.5

2.1
0 .5
1 .1
-0.5

910
920
930
940

0.1
1.1
NA
1 .7

914
915
916
917

0.2
0.
7 .0

1
21
5

0.031
5.9

60
46

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 Average weekly hours mfg
?] Avprapp weeklv overtime hours mfs 3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
*41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4)
43 Unemployment rate (inverted 4 ) 3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv. 4 ) 3
• 9 1 . Average duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3

.. L L1
LC L
L.C.I

Hours
do
'housands

L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100

U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs
U,C,C... Millions
do
C,C,C...
L,C,U.... Thousands
Percent

59

L,Lg,U....
LLgU
L,Lg,U....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....

Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent

8,312
7 .2
2.8
15.6
2.0

8,237
7 .0
2.8
15.0
1.9

8,379
7 .1
2.8
14.9
1 .9

8,191
6.9
2.9
15.4
1 .9

8,138
6 .8
2.7
15.0
1.8

..CCC...

A r hil rinl
do

3585.2
2962.8

3675.5
3052.2

3661 . 4
3071 .7

3686 . 4
3058.5

3698.3
3060.4

3056 . 4 3 0 6 8 . 2

do

2527.4

2602 . 4 2 6 2 1 . 9

do

537.8

541 . 1

123.8
127.3
125.1
1533.2

125 .0
127.9
130.8
1568.1

80 . 1
80 .2

79.8
78.5

104.30
97 . 9 0

U,Lg,U

38

59

95

59

85

60

07

60

13

60

14

8,243
6.9
2.7
14.8
1.9

60

19

7,949
6 .7
2.6
15.0
1 .8

60

30

0.
0.
-4.1

0.2
0.1
-0.8

0 .009 -0.012
-2.0
-1 .4

-0.1
0 .2
0.2
0.1
0

05

0

0.
0 .1
1 .1

0.020
1.5

0.4
0.4
0 .4
0.5

0.4
0.7
0 .5
-0.3

0.9
0.3
0.7
0.1

48
42
41
40

11

0 .22

0 .06

90

3.6
0.2
0.1
-1.4
0.1

-0.9
0 .
0.
0.
0 .

2.2
0.2
-0.1
-3.4
0.

0.6
0.1
0.2
2.6
0.1

37
43
45
91

3050.7

0.4

-0.6

0.7
-0.4

0.3
0 .1

50
52

8,023
6.7
2.6
15.0
1 .8

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
52 Personal income in 1982 dollars
• 5 1 . Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
Industrial Production:
*47 Industrial production
73 Industrial production durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

C,C,C...
C,C,C...

2605.2

2608.1

2604.2

2615.7

2596 .6

0.4

-0.7

-0.6

0.1

51

541.9

539.5

541 . 6

540.5

540.3

540.0

0.

-0.1

-0.4

0.4

53

124.4
127 . 1
130.2
1562.8

125 . 0
127.7
131 . 8
1568.0

125 . 9
128.7
132.9
1578.0

126.0
128.6
132.8

126 . 4
129.3
133.5

126 . 9
129.8
134.5

0.3
0.5
0.5

0 .4
0 .4
0.7

0.7
0 .8
0.8
0 .6

47
73
74
49

79.5
78.3

79.7
78.1

79.8
78.2

79.8
78.4

80 . 1
78.4

80 . 3
78.4

0.3
0.

0 .2
0.

0.2
-0.2

0.1
0 .1

82
84

105.92
98.53

103.03
96.05

106.26
98.82

107 . 6 0
99.39

108.83
100.49

110.41
101 .86

102.11
94.03

1 .5
1 .4

-7.5
-7.7

3.1
2 .9

1 .3
0.6

6
7

84.60
do
0.63
do
Bil. dol., EOP ... 3 5 3 . 0 4
45
Percent

86.75
0 .06
353.79
52

85.42
- 1 .90
353.87
52

86.21
88.45
1 .21
-1.23
357 . 5 0 353 . 7 9
52
55

86.00
2.16
355.78
56

91 . 8 8
-1 .99
353.79
56

86.06
-2.53
351 .26
55

6.8
-4.15
-0.6
0

-6.3
-0.54
-0.7
-1

0.9
3.11
1 .0
0

2.6
-2.44
- 1 .0
3

25
96
32

423.97
406.27
do
120.2
1977 = 100
114.50
Bil. dol
106.92
do
115.3
A.r., bil. dol
93.2
IQ 1966=100.

431.11
420.11
124.4
120.45
112.34
123 . 8
94.8

425.18 433.00 440.02
416.32 424.75 427.85
124.4
124.8
125 . 7
1 1 8 . 4 5 123 . 2 2 1 2 3 . 1 0
111 . 5 0 1 1 5 . 0 0 1 1 3 . 9 8
115.2
128.7
140 . 1
96 . 8
92.0
94.8

43 5 . 8 9 4 4 8 . 3 1
425.47 433.56
125 . 4
127 . 1
121 . 0 6 126 . 5 9
112.30 116.56

NA
NA
127 . 8
119.27
108.92

2.8
1 .9
1 .4
4.6
3 .8

NA
NA
0.6
-5.8
-6.6
1 .5

1 .8
2.0
0.3
4.0
3.1
21 .6
-2.1

1 .6
0.7
0.7
-0.1
-0.9
-8.1
-3.0

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

0.6
NA

-0.9
-1.8

0 .
NA

12
12

1977-100
CCC
do
CCC
do
C,L,L....
C,C,C... A.r., bil. dol

Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3

L.C.U.... Percent
do
L.C.U....

0.5
0.5
1 .2
0 .3

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
•8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 ( u )
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57 Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58 Index of consumer sentiment ( u )

L,L,L...
L.L.L...
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,Lg,U...
L.L.L..

C.C.C...
C,C,C...
C,L,C...
C.L.U...
U,L,U...
L.C.C...
L.L.L...

Bil. dol
do

Bil. dol

91 . 4

89.1

90 . 4

-2.5

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L.L.L.. Number

120.9
55,292

121 . 1
120 . 4
NA 5 8 , 1 7 0

120.0
57,097

120.0
NA

118.7
NA

121 .6
NA

122.3
NA

2 .4
NA

32.07

31 . 3 1

30.33

31 . 4 3

32.90

32.76

34.77

28.09

6. 1

-19.2

3 .6

4.7

1C

L.L.L..
L.L.L..

do
do

32.68
27.19

32.46
27 . 1 3

31 . 4 7
26.25

33 . 1 3
27 . 3 1

33 . 9 5
28.47

34.17
28.44

35.57
30.05

27.79
24.14

4.1
5.7

-21.9
-19.7

5.3
4.0

2.5
4.2

2(
1L

L,L,1

do

28.26

28.75

27 . 8 4

29.49

30 . 0 4

30.36

31 . 4 1

24.30

3.5

-22.6

5.9

1 .9

11

L.L.L..

Bil. dol

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification-

Percent change

Annual average
1985

1986

2dQ
1986

3d Q
1986

78.95
19.99
85 .77

77 . 6 7
20 . 2 1
81 . 12

4th Q
1986

Nov.
1986

Dec.
1986

Jan.
1987

85.41

78.29

83.02

Nov.
to
Dec.
1986

Dec.
to
Jan.
1987

2dQ
to
3d Q
1986

3dQ
to
4th Q
1986

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U. Mil. sq. ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
5
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

86.42
27 . 2 2

94.58

77 . 0 3
NA
NA

78.49
NA
NA

C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil. dol

387 .13 3 8 0 . 6 9 3 7 5 . 9 2 3 7 4 . 5 5 3 9 4 . 3 4

C,Lg,Lg....
do
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil. dol

401 .80 3 9 9 . 0 9 3 9 6 . 6 6 3 9 8 . 7 3 4 0 5 . 7 6 399.59 4 1 5 . 8 0
139.6 1 3 8 . 7
137.7
138.8 138.8 138.9 138.3
461 .4 4 5 6 . 2 456 .8 454.4 455 .9

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

1 ,742
138.1
177 .2

1,878
145.3
192 .7

1 ,758
133.8
197 .2

1 ,701
135.2
200 .2

-0 .3

-24.4

-8.3

5 .3

NA
0.4

0.5
0.8
-0 .5

1 .8
0.
0 .3

-0.1
-11 .5

-6.4
-7.9
2 3

-3.2
1 .0
1 5

1 ,806
134.8

10 .4
18.4

- 6 . 8 4 -10.96 - 1 2 . 8 8
-3.4
-3 .6 - 1 8 . 0

-6 .31
-34.6

NA
NA

6.57
-16.6

1 .44

NA

1 .09

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . 583.23 587 .17 588.91 588.07 587.17 590.05 587 .17
638.43 641.54 646.28 643.48 641.54 643.86 641.54
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
88.37 86 .29 86.71 85.52 86.29 86 .74 86 .29
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do

NA
NA
NA

1 .48

212.55 211.10 212.55

194.1

-0.4
4.1
-0.4

NA

1 ,80 8
152.3

1,806
140 . 2

-5.4

1.1
NA
NA

-1.6
1 .1

138.9

1 ,637
128.6

L,L,L... A.r., thousands..
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol...

6.0

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value5

L.L.L....

..do...

9.0

7 .6

15.1

L,L,L...
L,L,L.

..do...

3.06
9.8

3.59
3.9

12.84
2.9

-0.31

-0.14

-1 .33

L,L,L

Bil. dol..

1 .56

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio

1 .54

1 .55

0.42

1 .52

L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . 214.24 212.55 210.31 211.57

0.32

1 .50

0.35

1.51

-15 .4

-24.1

NA - 1 9 . 6 8
NA
-6.3

-4.12
-0.2

NA

1 .75

-0.10

-0.5
-0.4
-0.5

NA
NA
NA

-0.1
-0.4
-1 .4

-0.2
-0.3
0.9

NA

-0.03

NA

-0.03

-0.02

NA

0.7

NA

0.6

0.5

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3

L,L,L Percent...
U,L,L... 1967 = 100...
L,L,I Percent

-0.20
244.8
-0 .41

0.26
228.9
0.11

-0.18
220.3
-0.12

0.85
242.2
1.02

0.75
243 .7
1 .20

0.31
247.5
1 .78

1 .23

-0 .44
1.6
0.58

-0.14
2.1
-0.55

-0.77
-0.8
0.08

1 .03
9.9
1.14

186.84 236.34 240.58 241.15 243.69 245.09 248.61 264.51

1 .4

6.4

0.2

1 .1

5 5
5 i
1 .8
0 .9
-0 .9

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

Stock Prices:
•19. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s ©

L,L,L. 1941-43=10.

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
, in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L,L,L.. A.r., bil. dol...
L,L,L.
do
L,C,L.
do
L.C.L..
do
L,L,L.. Cents
L,L,L.. 1977 = 100...

131 .4
123 .1
188.9
181 .0
3 .8
98.8

133 .1

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

L,L,L. A,r., bil. dol
L,L,L.

376.0
374.9

NA
NA

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg..
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg..
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg,Lg,Lg..
*b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg..
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3
Lg,Lg,Lg..

0.59
222.1
-0.20

NA
NA
NA
NA

98.6

128.8
118.3
194.2
183 .6

135.9
124.3
197 .6
185 .3

0.17
252.8

4.3

3.4

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

98.8

99.0

97 .7

374.9
374.1

384.3
383 .8

NA
NA

2 .5
2 6

NA
NA

171.4

0 .8

1 .2

1977 = 100....

164.8

168.9

168.0

169.3

Dollars

0 .708

0.726

0 .724

0 .727

NA

1977 = 100...
Percent

138.0
85.4

138.6
81 .1

138.7
81 .8

138.0
80.2

138.4
79.3

73 .5

NA

73.5

73 .8

NA

0.2

0 .4
138.2
79.2

137 .7
78.5

137 .3
77.9

-0.4
-0.7

-0.3
-0.6

-0.5
-1 .6

-1 .3

NA

0.3
-0.9

0 .3

NA

-0.13
-0.02
0.06
3.5
2.0

0.51
-0.10
-0.05
3 .6
1 .6

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml 3
102. Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars
•106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112.
113.
•111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted*)3




L,L,L..
L,C,U..
L,L,L..
L,L,L.
L.L.L.
C,C,C.
C,Lg,C.

do
do
Bil. dol
do
Ratio
do

L.L.L.. A.r., bil. dol...
L,L,L..
do
L,L,L..
do
L,L,L.. A.r., percent..
L,L,L.. A.r., bil. dol...
.. L.L.L..

Percent, EOP

0.97
1 .28
1 .39
1.26
1 .77
1.57
2.54
0.97
0.68
0 .71
0 .87
0 .85
0.75
0.51
0.86
0.78
0.70
0.63
0 .66
0.72
0 .67
0.75
0.61
NA
532.7 592.5 582 .8 603.2 624.8 622.6 637 .3 639.2
2228.8 2360.3 2342.4 2389.9 2428.1 2424.9 2441.2 2444.0
6.736
1.334

6.258
1 .301

6.342
1 .316

6.185
1 .288

5.961
1.270

77 .64
NA
NA
NA
NA
22.76 10 .61 - 1 6 . 4 8 13 .10 53 .86
81 .52 59.83 66.85 66 .73 42.38
10 .4
6.8
4.9
6.1
9.4
647.34 627.96 576.42 694.72 7 80.5 2
2.32

1 .85

2.53

2.24

1 .85

0.97
0.35
0 .14
2.4
0.7

-0 .1 57 -0 224
1.258 - 0 . 0 0 3 - 0 . 0 0 9 - 0 . 0 2 8 - 0 . 0 1 8

1 .270

1 .267

NA
31 .62
39.38
6.2

NA
NA
NA
93 .61 120.92 61 .99
1 .26
NA - 3 8 . 1 2
12 .4
NA
6.2

1.95

1 .85

-1.57
-0.08
NA
0.3
0.1

NA

0 .10

NA
27 . 3 1
NA
NA

NA

NA
NA
29.58 40.76
-0.12 -24.35
1 .2
3.3
20. 5
12 .4
0.29

0.39

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification1

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 ©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate b o n d s 3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury b o n d s 3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks 3 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
•101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3

L,U,U....
L,Lg,U....
LTLg,Lg-- 'ercent
do...
C,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do...
C,Lg,Lg....
do...
U,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..

Annual average
2dQ

-492
1 ,321

52
836

-67
857

-84
874

8.10
7.49
11.75
10 . 7 5
9.10
12 . 2 4
9.74
9.93

6.80
5.97
9.23
8.14
7.32
9.91
8.11
8.33

6.92
6.13
9.06
7.95
7.54
9.95
8.13
8.61

5.53
9.14
7 .89
7 .28
9.90
7 .73
7 .85

Lg,Lg,Lg..., Bil. dol., EOP . 5 3 5 . 1 0 594.93 5 6 7 . 6 5
Lg,Lg,Lg... Bil. dol
3 3 1 . 6 5 342.55 3 3 8 . 2 3
Lg.Lg.Lg...

do

3d Q
1986

321 . 5 2 342.04 3 3 8 . 7 9

Nov.
to

Jan.
1987

4th Q
1986

224
807

226
752

542
827

491
580

6 .27
5.34
9.05
7.84
6.93
9.42
7 .28

6 .04
5.35
8.99
7.81
6.85
9.26

6.91
5.49
8.87
7 .67
6 .86
9.21

6.43
5.45
8.59
7 .60
6 .61
8.79

7 .50

7 .50

7.50

584.33 594.93 594.82
3 3 9 . 9 2 347 . 7 8 3 4 6 . 0 6

594.93
NA
353 .86 363.93

3 4 2 . 0 8 3 4 8 . 8 3 346 . 7 5 3 5 5 . 2 8

2d Q
to
3d Q
1986

Jan.
1987

-316
75

3d Q
to
4th Q
1986

-308
-67

51
-247
-0.48
-0.04
-0.28
-0.07
-0.25
-0.42

-0.71
-0.60
0.08
-0.06
-0.26
-0.05
-0.40
-0.76

0.06
-0.19
-0.09
-0.05
-0.35
-0.48
-0.45
-0.35

0.
2.3

NA
2.8

2.9
0.5

1.
2.3

1 .9

0.14
-0.12

1 .0

2.0

0.39

0 .30

362.12

2.5

15.02

16.35

16.13

16.52

16.82

16.88

16.77

NA

-0.11

.982 = 100...
.967 = 100...
'ercent
.967 = 100.
.do.
do
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.

111.5
322.2
0.3
309.8
308.7
323.8
306.1
318.7
300.5
291 . 8

114.4
328.4
0.1
319.7
299.8
312.1
2 80 .0
307 .6
306.4
284.8

114.0
326 .5
0 .1
316.3
298.8
311 .7
276 .5
306 .9
305.6
283.7

115,
328,
0.
322.3
297 . 4
308.4
276 . 9
305.0
306.8
282 .9

115.2
330 . 8
0.2
326 . 3
298 . 4
309.5
277 .7
304.8
309.6
284.4

330 . 8
0.2
326 . 5
298.7
309.8
278.2
304.8
309.9
284.6

331 . 1
0.2
327 . 2
298.1
309.3
274.4
304.8
310 . 1
284.2

0.7
328.6
300.9
313.6
282 .3
307 .6
310 .8
286 .2

0.1
0.
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-1 .4
0.
0.1
-0.1

1 .4
2.9
0.9
0 .2
0.7

1.9
-0.5
-1.1
0.1
-0.6
0.4
-0.3

1977 = 100...

165.2

169.2

168.8

169.3

170.5

170.8

170.6

170.8

-0.1

0 .1

0.3

0.7

...do
do
do
do
do

94.1
173.9
98.0
106.4
104.8

94.9
179.1
99.0
107.1
105.5

95.3
178.5
99
107 . 4
105.7

95.0
179.6
99.2
107 . 3
105.7

95.1
180.8
99.2
106 .6
105.1

95.3

95.0

94.4

-0.3

-0.6

-0
0
0
-0.1
0.

0
0
0
-0.7
-0.6

Millions
...do
Thousands..
...do
...do..
...do..

115.46
107.15
8,312
3,71
3,129
1,468
6,793

117 . 8 3 117 . 6 3 1 1 8 . 1 7 1 1 8 . 5 6 1 1 8 . 6 8 118.59 1 1 9 . 0 3
1 0 9 . 6 0 1 0 9 . 2 5 1 0 9 . 9 8 1 1 0 . 4 2 1 1 0 . 4 3 110 .64 111 . 0 1
8,379
8,191
8 ,237
7 ,949 8 , 0 2 3
8 , 138 8 , 2 4 3
3,772
3,750
3,820
3,751
3,725
3,720
3,786
3,089
3,006
2
,
9
7
6
3,032
2,865
2,900
2,945
1,518
1,434
1 , 4 4 7 1 ,359 1 , 4 0 2
1,454
1 ,407
6 ,827
6 , 6 47
6,673
6,708
6,46 5 6 , 5 3 4
6,609

-0.1
0.2
-3.6
-2.5
-3.7
-6.1
-3.1

0
0
0
-0.1
1
3
1 .1

0.
0.
-2.
-0.
-2.
-5.
-2.6

0
0
-0.6
1 .0
-2.0
-1
-0.6

0.1
-0.2
-0 .7

0.
0.2
0.7

0.
0 .4
-0.4

0.1
-0.1
-0.3

Lg,Lg,Lg...

NA

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B l . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . .
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities © .
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing.
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components.
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

0.2
0.6
0
1.2
0.3
0.4

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over3
452. Females 20 years and over3
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3....

Percent
do
do

78.1
54.7
54.5

78.1
55.5
54.7

78.0
55.4
55.1

78.0
55.8
54.7

78.1
55.7
54.4

78.2
55.8
54.5

78.3
55.6
53 . 8

78.3
55.8
54.5

D. Government Activities
D l . Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures..
State and local government surplus or deficit3.
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures

517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment..
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense .

A.r., bil. dol.
.do.
do
.do.
do
.do

- 1 9 8 . 0 - 2 0 4 . 9 -232.2 - 1 9 7 . 4
NA
786.8
833.1
NA
813
825.9
9 8 4 . 9 1030 . 8 1045
1030 . 5 1045
61 .7
NA
58.9
64.0
63 . 1
577.5
NA
611
629.1
620.8
515.8
574.6
552.6
557 .7
565.1

Mil. dol
do
do
1977 = 100..
Thousands....
A.r., bil. dol..

26,883
12,240
8,022
170.6
1 ,544
259.4

Mil. dol
do
do
do
do
do

1 7 , 7 7 2 1 8 , 1 0 8 1 8 , 1 5 4 17,609 1 8 , 7 8 4 18,593 1 8 , 4 3 0
1 , 9 4 1 2,135
2,204 2 , 3 5 2
2,426
2,164
2,334
3,736
4,138
3,917
3,907
3,829 4 , 0 9 9
4,227
2 8 , 8 3 8 30 , 8 3 0 3 0 , 2 6 6 30 , 7 6 4 31 , 3 3 3 3 6 , 1 8 7 27 , 7 9 5
2,511
2,381
2,414
2,788
4,180
2,894
2,299
5,211
5,810
6,143
7 ,1 56
4,688
5,578
5,483

34.8
2 .4
-1 .
5.1
2
2.3

NA
NA
1 .
N
NA
1 .7

- 1 .3
20.
23.2
1 .5
1 .2
3.0

NA
NA
-27 .8
2.3
0.3
-2

-5
11 . 5

6 .7
9.3
7.1
1 .8
1.
5.7

D2. Defense Indicators
NA 31 ,027 3 0 , 6 1 5
NA 1 1 , 7 3 2 1 4 , 1 6 4
7 , 3 9 4 9 , 109
8,103
178.1
180.8
180 . 2
1,589
1,608
1 ,600
2
7
8
.
4
2
86.8
278.1

NA 30 ,341
NA
NA
6 , 5 7 8 10,356
184.9
184.9
1,613
1,613
280 .7

NA
NA
4,376
185.3
1 ,614

NA
NA
6,607
186.7
NA

NA
NA
-57 .7
0.
0.1

NA
NA
51 .0
0.8

E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts




-0
6
2
-23
-17
-23.4

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Series title

1st Q
3d Q

4th Q
1985

1st Q

2dQ

1986

3dQ
1986

4th Q

to
2dQ

2dQ

to

3d Q
1986

3d Q
to
4th Q
1986

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.

Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports, adjusted
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States

Bil. dol
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
do
.do.
.do.

-23.58 -25.67
90 .03 8 9 . 6 2
113.60 115 .30
-28.13 -31.11
54.98
53.61
83 .10 8 4 . 7 2
21 .56 2 2 . 5 0
16.87 16.20

A.r., bil. dol..
....do
A.r., dollars..
A.r., bil.dol..
do
....do
A.r., dollars..

3765.0
3489.9
14,721
3430.7
2670.6
2470.6
10,421

3998.1
3585.2
14,981
3576.2
2 82 8.0
2528.0
10,563

4206.5
3675.5
15,218
3667.9
2972.0
2602.3
10,774

4030.5
3603.8

4149.2
3655.9
15,188
3616.1
2935.1
2581.2
10,723

4175.6
3661 .4
15,179
3646.3
2978.5
2625.8
10,886

4240 .7
3686.4
15,246
3686.7
2979.9
2605.5
10,776

A.r., bil.dol...
....do
do
do
do
do
do
do

2428.2
2246.3
331 .2
318.9
870.1
828.6
1227 .0
1098.7

2600.5
2324.5
359.3
3 43 .9
905.1
841 .6
1336.1
1139.0

2763.1
2419.1
388.4
368.9
932.7
872.1
1442.0
1178.2

2627.1 2 6 6 7 . 9 2697.9
2342.0 2351 .7 2372.7
373 .3 362.0 360.8
357 .4 347 .0 345.4
907 .4 922.6 929.7
843 .8 847.2 860.6
1346 .4 1383.2 1407 .4
1140.8 1157 .5 1166.6

2732.0
2408.4
373.9
357.1
928.4
877.3
1429.8
1174.0

..do..
...do..
...do...
...do...
...do...
...do...

662.1
652.0
598.0
592.8
64.1
59.2

661.1
647.7
650.0
638.6
11 .1
9.0

684.1
657 .9
676.3
650.3
7.8
7.6

657 .4
643.8
654.3
6 43.1
3.1
0.7

669.5
653.2
672.6
658.4
-3.1
-5.2

708.3
684.0

6 87.3

664.4
644.1
43.8
39.9

672.8
649.6
14.5
15.1

6 80.3

..do...
..do...
..do...
..do...
..do...

733.4
675.2
311 .3
291 .7
422.2
3 83.5

815.4
721.2
354.1
323.6
461 .3
397 .6

864.5
747 .0
366.6
332.7
497.9
414.3

829.7
731 .8
360.9
329.9
46 8.8
401.9

855.6
749.4
380.9
347 .2
474.7
402 .2

836.7
725.2
355.7
320.4
480 .9
404.8

860.8
742.2
367.6
328.9
493.3
413.3

874.0
750.4
369.3
330.9
504.7
419.5

..do..
..do...
..do..
..do...
..do..
..do..

NA - 2 4 . 4 5 - 2 9 . 4 5 - 3 1 . 0 2 - 3 0 . 3 3 - 3 2 . 1 0
NA 90 . 2 3
90 .87 91 . 5 9 92.06 92.53
NA 1 1 4 . 6 9 120.32 1 2 2 . 6 1 122.39 124.63
NA - 3 1 . 6 8 - 3 7 . 3 5 - 3 6 . 4 6 - 3 5 . 6 7 -37.67
NA 5 2 . 5 0
52.73 53 . 6 6 55.15 55.32
NA 8 4 . 1 7
90 .0 8 9 0 . 1 2 90 .82 9 2 . 9 9
NA 2 4 . 5 0
24.51 2 4 . 2 2 22.64 2 2 . 4 8
NA 1 6 . 2 4
15.25 1 7 . 7 0
17 .31 16 .97

0.69
0.5
-0.2
0.79
2.8
0.8
-6.5
-2.2

-1 .77
0.5
1 .8
-2.00
0.3
2.4
-0.7
-2.0

4260.6
3698.3
15,258
3722 .7
2994.6
2596.6
10,713

0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.8
1 .5
1 .7
1 .5

1 .6
0.7
0.4
1 .1
0.
-0.8
-1.0

0.1
1 .0
0.5
-0.3
-0.6

27 99.8
2448.0
414.5
391.6
932.8
875.4
1452.4
1181.0

2822.5
2447.4
404.3
381.4
939.7
874.9
1478.5
1191 .0

1 .3
1.5
3.6
3.4
-0.1
1 .9
1 .6
0.6

2.5
1 .6
10 .9
9.7
0.5
-0.2
1.6
0.6

0.8
0.
-2.5
-2.6
0.7
-0.1
1 .8
0.8

675.8
651 .3

665.3
631 .7
687 .8
656 .1
-22.5
-24.4

-3.0
-2.8
1 .3
0.9
-29.3
-24.8

-1.7
-2.0
1 .1
0.3
-19.0
-15.4

-1 .6
-3.0
1 .1
0 .7
-18.0
-24.1

2.9
2.3
3.3
2 .7
2.6
2.1

1.5
1 .1
0.5
0.6
2.3
1 .5

1 .4
2 .7
1 .3
5.9
1 .5
0.

- 5 8 . 7 - 7 8 . 9 - 1 0 5 . 2 - 8 3 . 7 -105.3 - 9 3 . 7 -104.5 -108.9 -113.6
- 8 3 . 6 -108.2 - 1 4 8 . 6 •113.8 -132.0 -125.9 -153.9 -163.3 - 1 5 1 . 1
382.7 369.8 372.3 362.3 368.2 374.8 363.0 370.8 3 80.7
369.7 362.3 370.8 355.8 362.9 369.2 359.8 371.2 383.2
441 .4 448.6 47 7.5 446 .0 473 .6 46 8.5 467 .5 47 9.7 494.3
453 .2 470.5 519.4 46 9.6 494.8 495.1 513.6 534.5 534.2

-10.8
-28.0
-3.1
-2.5
-0.2
3 .7

-4.4
-9.4
2.1
3.2
2.6
4.1

-4.7
12.2
2.7
3 .2
3.0
-0.1

3032.0 3222.3 3385.1 3243.4 3287.3 3340.7 3376 .4 3396 .1
NA
2214.7 2368.2 2498.0 2380.9 2423.6 2461 .5 2480.2 2507 .4 2542.8
236.9 254.4 279.2
262.1
249.3
265.3 289.1 277 .5 284.9
8.3
7 .6
15.0
8.3
7 .3
12.8
16.3
16.2
14.8
264.7
280 .7 298.7
296.3 285.6 296.4 293.1 302 .0
NA
307 .4 311 .4 294.2
309.7 307 .6 304.9 297 .7 292.9 281 .5

1 .1
0.8
9.0
27 .3
-1 .1
-2.4

0.6
1 .1
-4.0
-0.6
3.0
-1 .6

NA
1 .4
2 .7
-8.6
NA
-3.9

-7.5
-0.5
5.2
-48.2
0.1

-4.2
1 .2
-45.1
40.0
-2.3

NA
NA
-12 .6
NA
-0.3

A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars

15,041
3603.1
2832.0
2524.7
10,537

40 8 7.7
3622.3
15,080
3627 .5
2882.2
2540.7
10,577

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
Services
Services in 1982 dollars
A3.

240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.

Gross Private Domestic Investment

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3

664.7

651.6
-4.5
-0.3

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260.
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars

250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.

Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

A5.

A6.

374.0

350,
512,

Foreign Trade

National Income and Its Components

220. National income
280. Compensation of employees.
282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj
286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
288. Net interest
A7.
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

886,
770,

.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do

Saving

Gross saving
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate3

do..
do..
do..
do..
Percent

573.3 551 .5 536.1 541 .7
506.1 544.5
560.1
NA
168.7
143 .3 1 1 4 . 1
119.6
-101.5 -136.3 - 1 4 1 . 8 •138.0
5.1
6.3
4.2
3.8

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




524.1
553.5
125.8
•155.1
4.4

583.2 539.7 517 .2
562.6 559.9 566.4
145.6 153.1
84.1
•125 .1 -173 .3 -133.3
5.1
5.0
2.8

NA
NA
73.5
NA
2.5

2
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

CYCLICAL iNDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes

[idem 1967=1001
A

910. Index of twelve leading indicators
(series 1,5, 8,12,19,20,29, 32, 36, 99,106, 111)
-8

J

A/

- J
,; xJ
-i

J

\

v

/

>-L

/
J

fJ\

-1

V

10090 J

/

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 41,47,51,57)
-4

f

°

'

J

y

n

/

-2

t\/\j

T

5

1

/

\\/ y

0

+

i
110-

1
n

/
-6

-3

-2

100-

°

/
930. Index of six lagging indicators
(series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109)

***-

+3
*

\

/
100 •
90-

+2

+5

60-

50-

40 -J

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + } in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10



FEBRUARY 1987

Wito

CYCLICAL. SNDiCATOftS
A

|

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued

at: 1967=1001
914. Capital investment commitments (series 12,20, 29)
-15

120110 —

m

-3
-2

-2

10090-

-1

915. Inventor/ investment and purchasing (series 8 , 3 2 , 3 6 , 9 9 )

916. Profitability (series 19,26,80)

-3

-2

160-

-6

917. Money and financial flows (series 104,106, 111)

-20

-9

150 140 130120 -

-2

110100 -

-7

-2

90-

70

J

140-

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
130 12011010090 J

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

IICII

FEBRUARY 1987



CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR C O M P O N E N T S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart A2. Leading Index Components

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)

inn

200 T

73^v
/
*i flupragp wppkly initial rlaimc for iinpmnlnympnt incur:

State programs (thousands—inverted scale)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods ^
and materials industries (bil. dol.) |L,L,L|
>%>

A

^r

v^

Si. vendor performance, percent ot compaiws receiving slower
'. rielivmes (perrent^)
11 I L I

^W

v^

12. Net business formation (incteK 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )
JLTTI

140-

.

120 -

LD

100 4540-

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipmenlj
1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

3530-

full

25-

2015-

10 J

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, 65, and 66.

12




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
Ji

,

Mj,

inventories on hand and on

1982 dollars, smoothed1 (am. rate,

tpriak nrirp« «mnnthp<£ Ynorrpnt\

prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43

2 • 111. Change in business and consumer credit outs

1950 51

52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

KCII

FEBRUARY 1987




13

CYCLSCAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR C O M P O N E N T S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components

110100 -

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
|C,C,C|

'
702800260024002200-

51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (am. rate, bl. dol.) " ~ ~

2000-

|C,C,C|

18001600 -

140 130120110-

47. Industrial production (index: 1977 = 100)
100-

Z.

90-

450-

TZL
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in
1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

400-

350-

300-

250 -

200-

150 -

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 b7 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 59 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14



FEBRUARY 1987

KCII

A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
/\

, ft

|Lg,Lg,Lg|

r

/ V ^

^V

Sir

10-

KM/

1214-

\/

\J

16-

w

182022-

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales i n .
198? dollars (rating 1

1.81.71.61.51.4-

10510095-

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data
(ratciil ul Lcinl (pciv-cnl)
nl)

90-

I Lg,Lg,Lg I

85-

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial bans outstanding in 1982 dolars (bil. doU

150 J
18-

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income
(percent)
| Lg.Lg.Lg |

—?r-—

16141210-

1950 51

5X

53

54

o'.i

56

•••

:: -

0;

.

66 6S 70 71 7.?

75 7C

7S 80 f,l 8? 83 84 85 86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

KCII FEBRUARY 1987




15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
DP.

P

Marginal Employment Adjustments |

N IV

Nuv

MH;

P

T

T

•$&£

p i Average weekly \wxmm production or nonsupervisory wpers, f f M g
«ifnanufacturing ( h o i y » -1L L LI

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory tinkers, :
ring (hours)

verage weekly i
tate programs (

for unemployment i
inverted scale) li C L I \

I I 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to m

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .

16




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued

on nonagricultural payrqfe (milli

40. Employees
industries (

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

IECII

FEBRUARY 1987




17

B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . E m p l o y m e n t and U n e m p l o y m e n t — C o n t i n u e d

|Comprehensive Unemployment!

37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)

UxU

43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)

X -A •

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

xr~:

s

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

1962

S3

64

65

.>' C>

07

:-'.;:

Current data (or these series are shown on page 62.

18



FEBRUARY 1987

HCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart B2. Production and Income

4400 -

[Comprehensive Output and Income|
4000-

IV
3600 -

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
32002800-

2400 J

52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

22002000 1800-1

300028002600-

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
(ann.rate,bil.dol.) \rrr\
"

2400220020001800-

1400

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
and construction (ann. rate, bil. dol.) I c C C1

J

600 -

550-

\

500 450 -

400 •

1962 63

64

65

66

67

58

69

70

71

73

74

75

76

77

7H

H2

93

84

85

86

87

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

I»U)

FEBRUARY 1987




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. P r o d u c t i o n and I n c o m e — C o n t i n u e d

!Industrial Production]

47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100)
CXX

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1977=100)

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1977=100)

1800170016001500 -

fcIXI

1400-

49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q
(arm. rate, bil. dol.)
|C,C,C |

1300120011001000900800-

| Capacity Utilization |
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) j L,C,U
90-1

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) | L.C.U
90-1

70-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B 3 . C o n s u m p t i o n , T r a d e , O r d e r s , a n d Deliveries

| Orders and Deliveries 1

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
"'-: industries (bil.dol;)'(•\ \
\

6. Manufacturers' new order* in current dollars,
durable goods industries ^bfl. dol.)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1382 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.)
lil.ll

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries ,'; -i
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term) ~ J "

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries

(oil-dot)

rriTui

—

/

y_

Z

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1987




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued

550 -

[Consumption and Trade|

500 -

57. Manufacturing and trade sales
in 1982 dollars (bil. dot.)
C,C,C| V

12

450 •
400 350 300250-

200 -

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars

(ML dot)

fcxxi

X

150-

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: 1977 = 100)
100-

140 KA

120-

59. Sales of retail storesjn 1982 dollars (bil. dot.)

|U,L,Ul

100-

\

60-1

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bil. dot)
160-

IV

140120 100 -

80-

55. Personal consumption expenditures,
automobiles, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
I L,C,C|

60-

110-

58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100)

100 -

A A

90-

\

807060 -

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

59

70

71

72

73

74

7r5

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22




FEBRUARY 1987

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment

| Formation of Business Enterprises |

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) | L,L,L |
50-

13. New business incorporations (thousands)

J
4b403b-

I Business Investment Commitments]

30-

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (ML dol.)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars (bil. dol.) f T T H

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bil. dol.)

. Manufacturers new orders in current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bil. dol.) | T T T

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings (nil. sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg.—5-term) 1

nc •
100-

908070 60-

i989
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

IMAW

FEBRUARY 1987




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C

Chart B4.

Fixed Capital

PROCESS—Continued

Investment—Continued

110-i
10090-

| Business Investment Commitments—Con.

706097. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. dol.)

35302520-

15-

1011. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. dol.)

100. Expenditures in 1982 dollars for new plant and equipment,
Q (ann. rate, fail, dol.) [c~j
| Business Investment Expenditures]

61. Expenditures m current dollars for new plant and
equipment, Q {aim. rate, bil. dol.)

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(ann. rate, bil. dot.) |c,LeL

76. Industrial production, business equipment

(index: 1977=100) [cXg

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24




FEBRUARY 1987

\ \ \ \ \

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

1 Business Investment "Expenditures—Con. 1
550500 450 400-

Gross private nonresidentiai fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, M I

~z_
IV

350300250 -

88. Producers' durable equipment, Q |C,Lg,C|

200 -

150 -

100 -

I Residential Construction Commitments and Investment |
28. New private housing units started (arm. rate, millions)

29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
(index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )

240 -i

89. Gross private residential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bit. dol.)

JiliL

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

180 -

J-

\

1962 63

220200-

160-

z
74

75

76

140-

\2
77

78

79

80

81

120 100 •

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

licit


FEBRUARY 1987


25

B

C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

[Inventory Investment]
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
,6o4

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.—4-terni1)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(am. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on
hand and on order, book value (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

1962 63

64

65

66

57

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

7ft

BO

81

32

33

84

85

86

87

88 1989

• This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26




FEBRUARY 1987

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued

j Inventories on Hand and on Order |
700-

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (bit. dol.)

600 -

500-

400 -

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (bil. dol.)
X

300 -

200

J

110100908070-

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods,
book value (bil. dol.) HZ

6050-

40-

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars

260 -

78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value (bil. dol.)

220 180 -

ZZL

140-

100 -

60-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78 79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

tun

FEBRUARY 1987




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B 6 . Prices, Costs, a n d Profits

98 C h a n e in

Sensitive Commodity Prices I

-

£ P r0(iucer P rices *" 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) [L,L,Ll

99. Change in sensitive materiab prices (percent; moving

23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials2 (index: 1967=100)
|U.L.L |

I Stock Prices I

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, M . dot.) ] L.L.L I ^

| Profits and Profit Margins]

16. Corporate"profits after tax in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dcJ.) JL,L,L|

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

'••

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

This Is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau. Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

[Profits and Profit Margins—Con.|

280240-

80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)

200-

160120-

N
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

40-

yyj
11. Ratio. corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic
income, Q (percent) [ 7 7 7 ]

14-i

1210-

A
\

6-

V/A^-

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj \
/
to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) |u,L,L|
y .

4-1

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
sector, Q (index: 1977=100)

102-

JSkL

100-

\r

94-1

[Cash Flows|

500-

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q
(arm. rate, bil. dol.)
\

400-

300-

200-

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, 0
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

100

84

85

86

87

J

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

mil

FEBRUARY 1987




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and P r o f i t s — C o n t i n u e d

190 —

[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share|

M.

170 -

160-

zz.

63. Unit labor cost, business sector, 0
(index: 1977=100) [Lg.Lg.Lgl

180 -

150140130120110100 90-

0.800.750.700.650.600.55-

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product
in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars)

0.500.450.40-

160150140130120 -

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 ) • , . , . . •
"L>

110 100 90-

70 J

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,

Q (percent)

78-

[XJ4JUi

76747270-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B 7 . M o n e y and C r e d i t

85. Change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

T

'•+*—'-

102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
t

n

104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) |L,t,L|

1—r

J_

105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l . 0 (ratio)

^

[Velocity of Money|
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio) •

I C.Lg.C I
\
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .

\\i\\

FEBRUARY 1987




31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B 7 . Money and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d

[Credit Flows|

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (ann. rate, bil. dol.)-

+ 140+ 120+ 100-

60-

112. Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dot.;
lOO-i

MCD moving avg.—6-tetm) ( T J J

60-

113. Net change in consumer installment credit (arm. rate, bil. dol.;
MCD moving avg.—6-term) [ L,L,L j

111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent)

12001000-

z_

110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) JL,L,L|
~

Jyl

600500400300200-

100

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

J

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32




FEBRUARY 1987

IECII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

1 Credit Difficulties |
14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
|L,L,L|

100 -i

200300400-

.

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent—inverted scale)
|L,L,L|

^wA—>

1.82.02.2-

ff *

2.42.62.8-

[ Bank Reserves|

93. Free reserves (bil. dot.—inverted scale)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

/0

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1987




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

[interest Rates!

119. Federal funds rate (percent) W

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day ireasury mils

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(percent) I Lg,Lg,Lg

lib. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent)

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (percent)

117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (percent)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

34



68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

FEBRUARY 1987

ItCIt

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d

[Interest Rates—Con.
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)lLg,Lg,Lg|

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)

400-

[Outstanding Debt

350-

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars
(bil. dol.)
j Lg.Lg.Lg I * \

300250 200 -

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current

150-

dollars (bil. dot.)

700 600 500 400-

300 -

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. doi.)
200-

100-1

18-

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to persona) income
(percent) |Lg.LgLg 1

161412-

1962 63

ItCII

64

65

66

67

FEBRUARY 1987




68

69

70

7]

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

D I F F U S I O N I N D E X E S A N D RATES OF C H A N G E

C h a r t C l . Diffusion Indexes

950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span

Percent rising

, 1-mo. span—)

100-

50-

0-

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)

: if
• j

t

100-

I ill
i ii
I ~

50-

oJ

952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span—-)
lOOn

50-

961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9-mo. span , 1-mo. s p a n — )

50-

0-1

962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo, span—-)

100-1

50-

0-1

963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries
(6-mo. span—, 1-mo. s p a n — )

100-1

50-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36



FEBRUARY 1987

ISCIt

CYCLICAL SNDiCATO^
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued

964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
(9-mo. span—, 1-mo. s p a n — )

[Percentrising[
100-

965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing industries (4-Q moving a v g * * , , 1-Q span***)
1
1
.' '. tt > A

70-

A.

h&J^fif

«t

^-T-

fpj

60-

T

50-

VV

411 -

20

966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span

J

, 1-mo. span—-)
100 T

50-

967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials
(9-mo. span—., 1-mo. s p a n — )
100 T

50-

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 42-82 industries
(9-mo. span.—, 1-mo. s p a n — )
100 -i

50-

960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)

A

1962 63

64

65

66

90 -i

J

v
67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

70-

504075

76

77

78

79

80

SI

8?

83

84

8S

86

87

88 1989

:

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

Digitized
l » for
H lFRASER
FEBRUARY 1987


37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
D I F F U S I O N I N D E X E S A N D R A T E S OF C H A N G E — C o n t i n u e d
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued

Actual
Anticipated

Actual
• •»
Anticipated .•••••.

[Percent rising

• • •
• • •••

| Percent rising]
970, Expenditures for new plant and
equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

1
9 7 5 . Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

(a) Actual expendftures
70-

w

' •

/

"

*

*

it*

\

.

*Ci#¥

60-

•

/ *

50-

40-

1

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
100 -

•

\i—

ft

"

90-

80» • • • •

70-

•

60-

1

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1

972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

90-

100 -

80-

90-

70-

80-

60-

7060-

501

1

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

978. Selling prices,retail trade {4-Q span)

10090-

.

\
•

v

80-

7060- 1

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on paoe 76




FEBRUARY 1987

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change

1-month spans
3-month spans

Percent change at annual rate
910c. Composite index of twelve leading indicators

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators

47c. Index of industrial production

50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)

48c. Employee hours in nonagricuKural establishments

51c. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
+ 20-

^M&

+ 10-10-20-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

Hi

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

7>j

72

00

81

82

8?, 84

85

86

87

88 1S89

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

FEBRUARY 1987




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income

5000 -

IV

4500400035003000-

200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

250020001500 —

223. Personal income in current dollars
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
\
1000—'

224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
45004000-

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

3500300025002000-

45004000-

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

3500 3000 2500-

2000-

225. Disposable personal income in 1982
dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

1500 -

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, thous. dol.)

1816141210-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

6-1

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40




FEBRUARY 1987

ItCII

: ; ?

-*«• »

NATIONAL INCOME AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A2. Personal C o n s u m p t i o n Expenditures

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)]
Personal consumption expenditures—

Annual rate, biBion dollars (1982)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

72

7?

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

81

85

36

87

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .

Digitized
forl lFRASER
Iftl^
FEBRUARY 1987


41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL I N C O M E AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
900800700-

Gross private domestic investment—

2^

600500-

400-

240. Total, Q —/
300-

200 J

242. Fixed investment, Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

| Annual rate, biion dollars (1982)1
900800700600500-

400-

243. Fixed investment, Q
300 J

30. Change in business inventories, Q

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

42




FEBRUARY 1987

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL I N C O M E A N D P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)|

12001100 1000900-

Government purchases of goods and services—

800700600-

IEYI
500-

260. Total, Q

f\]

400- ,

300- •

200-

266. State and local
government, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
100 J

[Annualrate, bBondollars (1982)]

267. State and local government, Q

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

FEBRUARY 1987




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade

[Annual rate, billion dollars (currentj]-

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

- 253. Imports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q

j Annual rate, blon dollars (1982)|

257. Imports of goods and services, Q

V
256. Exports of goods and services, Q

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

IV

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44




FEBRUARY 1987

ItUI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
C h a r t A 6 . N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s

ftwual rate, billion dollars (current) |

220. National income, Q

^ - 280. Compensation of employees, Q

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments 0

— 288. Net interest, §

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and j r
capital consumption adjustments, Q

50-

40-

30-

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment,

20-

10-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

FEBRUARY 1987




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL I N C O M E AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d
Chart A7. Saving

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)]
800700600500 -

400-

290. Gross saving, Q
300250-

Z_

-295. Business saving, Q
200 -

150-

100 -

80-

60-

40-

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q

293. Personal saving rate, Q
A.

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

10-1

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income

• Percent of GNP|
1

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q

70-i

65-

60-1

268. State and local government purchases
of goods and services, 0

15-1

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
10-

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q

249. Residential fixed investment, Q
/
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

247. Change in business inventories, Q

-5-

' Percent of National Income
80-

64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-

70-

65-

15-1

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
5-

289. Net interest, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

I M . J I FEBRUARY 1987




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price Movements
War

Ian Juiv

,:. v

[Index: 1982=1001

310c. Implicit price deflator for gross [Ptoent change at annualraje]
national prodi«*t Q - Q y ?

130'

+ 15 -

120

310. Implicit price deflate for grass
national producMi~-

+ 10 -

110
10090.

70

0
J

130
120
110-

311. Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product, ij

311c. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product
(1-Q span)

10090

J

+ 15 + 10-

\j>S

+5 -

6-month spans

Producer price indexes—
330c. ffl commodities

80'

+ 20 -

70-1
+ 10-

[Index: 1967=1001

0 -

Producer price indexes—

-10-

340320
300
280
260-

335c. Industrial commodities
+ 20 + 10 -

2400-

220
200'

-10-

180-1

331c, Crude materials for

340
320
300280260-

335. Industrial rnmmnHjtiw

.further nrnrgssing

+ 30+ 20 + 10 -

240

0 -

220'
200

-10 -

180

-20 -

332c. Intermediate materials, supplies, andcomponents

331. Crude materials for further processing

+ 20+ 10 -

*—'vv

-10

332. Intermediate materials, supplies.

J

333c. Capital equipment

^ . _ ra
334c. Finished consumer goods

+ 20->
+ 10-

V/'

334. Finished consumer goads
1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

- 1 0 -I

86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.

48




FEBRUARY 1987

IECII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued

Undex: 1967 = 100]
380'

Consumer price indexes-

Ui

340-

300'

260

1

220-

322. All urban consumers, food —180-

320. All urban consumers

140 -

(6-montfripan)

j Percent change at annualrgtej
+ 20+ 100-

J(

322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month span)

+ 20+ 100-10-

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity

[Index: 1977=1001
200'
180
160

341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricutturat payrolls1

140'
120'
100

\

;

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers
on private nonagricurtural payrolls (current dollars)1
—

220 •
200 •
180'
160 •

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q

140'
120100 -

345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current defers)
60

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

J

88 1989

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1987




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued

J Change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1—
_

340c. Current-dollar earnings
jt!JV*iV*ir!V
T'

v">?

;

C

_.

j

.

'

•*-!
+ 15-

i

;'

E

+ 10-

3

I

S

I

!

T

S

J

r

7

7

B

fniif|jy

6-month spans (ann. rate)

+ 10-

341c. Real earnings

+ 50-

jfH f VWJM
WM!

-5-

m

Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
345c. Current-dollar compensation

-10-

+ 15-

4-quarter spans

+ 10i

+ 5-1

"—l-quarterspans

(ann.rate)
0-

346c. Real compensation
+ 10-

1-quarter spans (ann. rate)
+ 50-

- 5-

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—

348. Average first-year changes, Q (am. rate)

+ 15+ 10+ 5-

349. Average changes over life of
contract, Q (ann. rate)

I Index: 1977=1001
120-

[Productivity |

110-

358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
\

*•

^

-

•

- 4 ^ ^ * ^

100 -

90-

^"" —370. Output per hour, all persorB,^
business sector, Q
| Percent change

370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q

+ 10-

•
ft

.

_J \

A

m.

A

A

•'•

\\

^ V
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

— l-quarter spans (aim. rate) ,
+ 5 -

0- '

• • s

70

71

•

y' ^4-quarter spans '
72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

v

86

l!Xl
87

88 1989

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. ' One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50




FEBRUARY 1987

ItCIt

U

C

•. • • ; ; . ,

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major C o m p o n e n t s

130 -

120110 -

441. Civilian labor force (millions)
100-

90-

\
442. Civilian employment (millions)

80-

70 J

Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)-

4 5 1 Ma|es

^ ^

and over
8580757065-

453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

60-

m

555045-

452. Females 20 years and over

40-

14-

Number unemployed (millions)—

12-

^

37. Persons unemployed ^

10-

f

86-

445. Females 20 years and over
444. Males 20 years —
and over

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age
1210-

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions)

448. Number of persons employed part time for economic
reasons (millions)

1962 63

64

SP>

66

67

68

69

75

>6

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

8a

? -J

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

Digitized
l tfor
d FRASER
) FEBRUARY 1987


51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
G O V E R N M E N T ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

502. Federal Government expenditures, Q

501. Federal Governmentreceipts,Q

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q

IV

900.
800700600.
500400-

511. State and local government receipts, Q — ^
300200-

512. State and local government expenditures, Q
100-1
+ 100+ 80+ 60-

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

+ 40+ 20-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

wn on page 90.

52



FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
J) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

C h a r t D 2 . Defense Indicators

Advance Measures of Defense Activity |

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

525. Defense Department mime contract awards

(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
!

1962 63

64

65

66

67

6«

69

7o

76

/'/

n<

79

SO

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

l » U l FEBRUARY 1987



53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

220200180 160 -

| Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity |

557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment
(index: 1977=100)

14012010034-

_^-^

[12|

302622-

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value
(bil. dot.)

/

18-

561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders,
defense products (bil. doL)

343026221814-

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and militaryy
assistance (bil. dol.)
J

109-

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. dol.)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

54




FEBRUARY 1987

Wito

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
£) I

MEASURES

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense I n d i c a t o r s — C o n t i n u e d

Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con, j
570. Employment, defense products industries (millions)
1.81.6-

Defense Department personnel (millions)—
3.5 T
3.0-

577. Military personnel on active duty
2.5-

2.0-

1.5-

578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment
1.0 J

400350300 -

I National Defense Purchases |
200-

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.)

x*
150 -

100-

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

74

75

76

77

78

79

31

32

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

\\i\\

FEBRUARY 1987




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart E l . Merchandise Trade

2520-

15-

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (bil. dd.)

"1

109876543-

V\

A

2-

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products
(bil. dd.)
N
— 6 0 6 . Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. dd.)

4035302520-

1098n
7654-

3-

2-

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products (bil. dot.)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bil. dol.)
0.6-

0.4-

0.2

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

J

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56




FEBRUARY

1987

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
JT |

U.S. I N T E R N A T I O N A L T R A N S A C T I O N S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t E 2 . G o o d s a n d Services M o v e m e n t s

1 Annual rate, bHIion dollars]
j Excess of receipts
j Excess of payments
Goods and services—

667. Balance on goods and services, Q

Merchandise, adjusted—
622. Balance on merchandise trade, Q

651. U.S. Investment abroad, Q - ~ /

652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

I f t l ^ l l FEBRUARY 1987



57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F |

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production

I Index: 1977 = 1001

Index: 1977=100]

Industrial production—

Industrial production—

UJ
47. United States

y

y

v/

V

j^.—"w-"
/

140

130 -

130 •

721. OECD European countries

120 •

120 -

110'

110-

100 •

10090

90 J

J

160

12
150

130 -

722. United Kingdom

HO

728. Japan

120 -

130

110 120

100-

110 •

90-

ioo
90

130

725. West Germany

120
110
100

J*~*N

90

726. France

120

J

130 •

723. Canada
n

\n\

110 •
100 •

\

120 •
110100 -

90

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.




FEBRUARY 1987

IECII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F3. Stock Prices

Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Mar

I Index: 1967 = 1001

| 6-month spans]

Percent change at annual rate |

Stock prices-

Consumer prices—
1-20 -,

-\ 320c. United States
1-10-

^

VV
+ 20-1

738c. Japan
+ 10-

\^AV^

-I

+20 n

735c. West Germany
+ 10-

-£

736c. France
\S

v
732c. United Kingdom

737c. Italy

, IX J* ^v

\ 7 ^-N.rr

+ 10-

733c. Canada

100

1975

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

1987

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

J

86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

FEBRUARY 1987




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Q

Year
and
month

910. Index of
twelve leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)

(1967 = 100)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)

(1967 = 100)

930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

COMPOSITE INDEXES

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index1

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29) x

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)'

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
111)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

109.2
111.0

1985
January
February
March

166.3
167.1
167.4

158.4
159.0
159.3

123.7

124.3
125.4

128.1
127.9
127.0

110.8

102.6
102.5
102.0

113.1
114.1
114.2

139.0
138.6
138.9

April
May
June

166.7
167.1
167.7

160.5
160.2
159.5

125.1
126.7
126.5

128.3
126.4
126.1

110.0
109.7
110.1

101.8
101.6
101.5

114.5
115.0
115.8

137.1
135.9
135.6

July
August
September

169.2
169.8
170.6

159.7
160.9
160.9

126.9
127.2
128.4

125.8
126.5
125.3

110.5
110.6
111.2

101.5
101.5
101.6

116.7
116.9
115.6

137.7
139.0
140.0

October
November
December

171.6
171.6
173.6

160.8
161.6
163.0

129.7
129.7
130.2

124.0
124.6
125.2

110.3
109.5
110.5

102.1
102.3
102.7

114.8
114.9
116.5

141.1
140.6
141.9

173.4

1986
January
February
March

rl74.4
rl75.5

162.9
163.4
162.9

131.6
131.9
132.9

123.8
123.9
122.6

108.9
rllO.2
rlO9.9

103.3
rlO3.3
rlO3.2

117.3
119.0
119.8

rl40.3
rl39.8

April
May
June

rl77.6
rl77.7
rl77.3

165.6
164.2
163.7

131.0
132.1
132.1

126.4
124.3
123.9

rll0.4
rlO9.5
rlO9.6

103.6
103.2
102.6

119.9
119.7
120.4

rl40.1
rl42.4
rl42.6

July
August
September

rl78.5
rl78.5
rl78.7

164.2

rl64.6
165.3

132.1
131.9

124.3

rlO9.8
rlO8.8
rlO8.9

102.7
102.3
102.4

120.1

rl31.5

rl24.8
rl25.7

0)120.7
rll8.9

rl44.7
rl45.3
rl45.5

October
November
December

rl79.8
rl81.4
0)185.6

164.9
165.3
0)166.5

133.3
0)133.5
132.8

123.7
123.8
rl25.4

rlO8.4
rlO8.6
rlll.O

102.6
rlO3.4
rlO4.7

rll7.7
rll7.5
(NA)

rl47.5
rl47.0

"133.4

P124.7

P108.9

P103.3

142.2

0)rl48.7

1987
January
February
March

2

183.8

3

166.4

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 940 (136.2) in January 1984, series 914 (111.5) in February 1984, and
series 915 (107.9) in April 1984.
Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
3
Hxcludes series 57, for which data are not available.
^Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0 1

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

L, C, L

L, C, L

L, L,L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing l

L, Lg, U

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs2

(Hours)

(Thous.)

(Hours)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

U, C, C

L, Lg, U

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

(1967 = 100)

(Ratio)

48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

(3)

1985
January
February
March

40.5
40.1
40.5

3.3
3.3
3.3

378
402
389

0.490
0.501
0.502

140
141
141

180.23
180.17
181.38

April
May
June

40.3
40.4
40.5

3.3
3.2
3.2

387
383
392

0.470
0.474
0.500

132
132
141

181.05
181.65
181.88

July
August
September

40.4
40.6
40.7

3.2
3.3
3.3

381
375
381

0.497
0.490
0.491

141
134
136

181.80
182.58
183.11

October
November
December

40.7
40.7
40.9

3.4
3.4
3.6

367
371
391

0.503
0.524
0.527

140
144
145

184.42
184.58
184.81

January
February
March

40.8
40.7
40.7

3.5
3.4
3.4

375
384
393

0.538
0.498
0.490

143
142
138

185.63
185.29
185.41

April
May
June

40.7
40.7
40.6

3.4
3.4
3.3

374
378
378

0.472
0.452
0.500

132
128
141

185.82
185.76
185.45

July
August
September

40.6
40.8
40.8

3.4
3.5
3.5

370
379
369

0.506
0.495
0.485

140
134
135

185.90
186.66
186.95

October
November
December

40.7
40.8
r40.8

3.5
3.5
r3.5

343

0.510
0.530
[H>r0.539

141

0)342
356

H>147
rl44

187.41
rl88.58
rl88.45

P40.9

H)p3.6

359

pO.527

pl42

E>pl89.16

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
1
2
3

Series 1 reached its high value (41.1) in April 1984.
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

FEBRUARY 1987




61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC

0 1

PROCESS

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment—Continued

Process

Timing Class

u, c, c

c, c, c

L.C.U

U, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

Lg. U. Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

42. Number

41. Employees

40. Employees

90. Ratio,

37. Number of

43. Unemploy-

45. Average

91. Average

of persons

on nonagricul-

on nonagricul-

civilian employ-

persons unem-

ment rate

weekly insured

duration of

ment rate,

engaged in non-

tural payrolls

tural payrolls,

ment to popu-

ployed

unemployment

unemployment

persons unem-

44. Unemploy-

Year

agricultural

goods-

lation of

rate, State

ployed 15

and

activities

producing

working age

programs 1

weeks and over

month

industries

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

(2)

1985

102,979
103,269
103,676

96,366
96,507
96,870

25,008
24,931
24,971

59.18
59.31
59.46

8,506
8,365
8,351

7.4
7.3
7.2

2.9
2.9
2.9

15.9
15.9
16.2

2.0
2.1
2.1

103,-612
103,719
103,403

97,104
97,338
97,442

24,996
24,949
24,897

59.41
59.39
59.08

8,364
8,291
8,385

7.3
7.2
7.3

2.8
2.8
2.8

16.4
15.3
15.5

2.1
2.0
2.0

103,711
104,030
104,558

97,672
97,890
98,128

24,875
24,880
24,843

59.19
59.30
59.50

8,438
8,141
8,242

7.3
7.1
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.5
15.3
15.3

2.0
2.0
2.0

104,720
104,923
104,998

98,428
98,666
98,910

24,903
24,931
24,977

59.55
59.60
59.64

8,288
8,171
8,184

7.1
7.0
7.0

2.7
r2.8
2.8

15.3
15.6
15.2

2.0
1.9
1.9

105,612
105,452
105,555

99,296
99,429
99,484

[H>25,101
25,038
24,945

59.86
59.63
59.71

0)7,902
8,485
8,380

6.8
7.2
7.2

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.0
15.2
0)14.6

1.8
2.0
1.9

June

105,770
106,014
106,449

99,783
99,918
99,843

25,038
24,965
24,854

59.75
59.80
59.99

8,323
8,422
8,392

7.1
7.2
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.7
14.8
15.2

1.8
1.9
1.9

July
August
September

106,763
107,010
106,845

100,105
100,283
100,560

24,869
24,888
24,858

60.08
60.12
60.02

8,230
8,057
8,285

7.0
6.8
7.0

r3.0
r2.9
2.8

15.1
15.6
15.5

1.9
1.9
2.0

October

107,030
107,217
107,476

100,826
rl01,068
rl01,293

24,865
r24,891
r24,920

60.07
60.14
60.19

8,222
8,243
7,949

6.9
6.9
6.7

2.7
2.7
2.6

15.2
14.8
15.0

1.8
1.9
1.8

0)107,866

0>plOl,741

p25,054

0)60.30

8,023

0)6.7

0)2.6

15.0

0)1.8

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1986
January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
1
2

Uata exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

62




FEBRUARY 1987

ItO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Industrial production

Comprehensive Output and Income

c.cc

C, C, C

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

52. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C C, C

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C C, C

53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C.C.C

47. Index of
industrial
production

C, CTC

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

C, L, L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

c, c, c

49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1
1985
January
February
March

3,547.0

3,227.3
3,258.3
3,273.8

2,933.9
2,951.4
2,952.0

2,500.3
2,516.8
2,517.9

538.7
537.3
538.8

122.7
123.2
123.4

126.6
126.4
127.3

122.6
123.5
123.7

l,52l!i

April
May
June

3,567.6

3,302.7
3,288.5
3,304.9

2,972.7
2,949.3
2,958.7

2,537.6
2,514.8
2,525.1

536.7
536.8
536.4

123.3
123.6
123.6

127.5
127.4
127.0

124.1
124.7
124.8

1,526.0

July
August
September

3,60^8

3,315.4
3,320.5
3,333.9

2,962.8
2,962.1
2,963.5

2,522.2
2,525.9
2,526.8

535.0
537.4
537.0

123.4
124.4
124.3

126.9
128.1
127.4

125.4
126.0
126.4

1,544^2

October
November
December

3,622.3

3,358.3
3,372.3
3,418.0

2,971.9
2,971.2
3,003.5

2,535.9
2,536.4
2,569.0

538.7
538.5
542.0

123.6
124.8
125.6

126.7
128.2
128.7

125.8
127.2
127.5

1,541.7

January
February
March

3,655.9

3,417.4
3,435.3
3,445.1

2,992.5
3,021.4
3,040.7

2,551.7
2,577.9
2,593.6

541.6
540.8
541.6

126.2
125.3
123.6

129.5
128.7
126.8

129.3
128.7
127.7

1,563.6

April
May
June

3,661.4

3,486.8
3,481.3
3,481.9

E>3,082.9
3,072.6
3,059.7

0)2,633.9
2,621.9
2,609.9

H>544.3
543.0
538.5

124.7
124.2
124.2

128.1
127.0
126.2

129.6
129.9
131.2

1,562*8

July
August
September

3,686.4

3,490.8
3,497.9

3,062.1
3,060.3
3,053.0

2,605.7
2,608.4
2,601.6

538.4
541.1
538.9

124.9
125.1
124.9

127.4
127.5
128.1

131.7
132.2
131.4

1,568.0

October
November
December

E)r3,698.3

r3,518.0
r3,524.0
r3,546.8

r3,056.5
r3,056.4

543.9
540.5
540.3

125.3
126.0

r3,068.2

r2,604.3
2,604.2
r2,615.7

rl26.4

rl28.1
rl28.6
rl29.3

rl32.8
rl33.5

[H>P3,548.0

p3,050.7

p2,596.6

p540.0

S>pl26.9

H>pl29.8

H>pl34.5

1986

132.3
H>rl,578.0

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1987




63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

• •
1*1

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME—Continued

Q |

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

L, C, U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing 1

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials *

Year
and
month

L,L, L

(Percent)

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

(Bil. dol.)

7. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)
Revised2

1985

L, L, L

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
(Bil. dol.)

L, L,L

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1

(Bil. dol.)

L, Lg, U

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

L,L, L

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries 1 ©
(Percent
reporting)

Revised2

January
February
March

80.2
80.2
80.4

81.4
81.3
81.2

105.45
102.47
99.54

99.57
96.67
93.82

86.57
83.63
81.81

3.48
0.75
-2.58

348.92
349.67
347.10

47
48
46

April
May
June

80.4
80.3
80.0

80.5
80.1
80.2

99.84
102.97
106.78

94.10
96.69
100.17

83.31
84.06
83.11

-2.22
0.25
4.12

344.87
345.13
349.25

44
44
44

July
August
September

79.9
80.3
80.0

79.7
79.8
79.5

104.37
107.66
106.64

97.72
100.81
100.13

83.48
84.82
85.27

1.89
2.35
2.98

351.14
353.49
356.48

44
42
42

October
November
December

79.4
80.1
80.2

79.1
79.4
80.3

104.50
103.80
107.53

97.75
97.01
100.40

86.35
87.02
85.77

-1.98
-3.21
1.75

354.49
351.28
353.04

46
42
46

January
February
March

80.8
80.2
79.1

80.1
79.6
78.5

108.19
107.54
104.68

101.21
100.60
97.83

89.32
87.65
83.83

2.56
2.00
1.99

355.60
357.60
[H)359.59

46
48
50

April
May
June

79.9
79.4
79.3

78.7
78.1
78.0

103.75
102.62
102.73

96.78
95.64
95.74

86.96
83.68
85.62

-2.84
-1.05
-1.82

356.74
355.70
353.87

50
55
50

July
August
September

79.7
79.7
79.6

78.3
77.9
78.1

106.22
103.84
108.72

98.90
96.60
100.95

84.83
85.36
88.43

1.24
-0.31
2.70

355.11
354.80
357.50

54
51
52

October
November
December

r79.6
r79.8
r80.1

r77.8
r78.4
r78.4

103.57
108.83
[H>rll0.41

95.81
100.49
E>101.86

87.47
86.00
E>91.88

-3.87
2.16
r-1.99

353.62
355.78
r353.79

54
56
56

p80.3

p78.4

plO2.ll

P94.03

p86.06

p-2.53

P351.26

55

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
lr
rhe following series reached their high values before 1985: series 82 (81.5) in July 1984; series 84 (82.9) in August 1984; series 25
(8.14) in March 1984; and series 32 (72) in March 1984.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

64




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

£ Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C, C, C

C,C,C

57. Constant
(1982) dollars

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

C, L, C

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

(1977 = 100)

C, L,U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

• •
l i l

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

L, C,C

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L,L, L

58. Index of
consumer

12. Index of
net business
formation1

sentiment x @

(1967 = 100)
Revised 2

417,350
418,218
420,346

398,853
400,734
402,554

118.0
119.1
119.3

110,511
111,935
111,999

104,256
105,301
104,966

April
May
June

423,215
424,379
418,219

406,623
408,803
400,212

118.9
119.7
119.9

114,256
113,992
113,468

106,881
106,734
106,243

July
August
September

421,565
428,205
427,201

404,428
411,491
410,596

119.4
120.9
121.1

114,620
116,349
118,499

107,322
108,737
110,643

October
November
December

426,123
431,012
r431,799

408,186
411,314
r411,431

120.5
122.7
123.3

114,947
115,354
rll6,687

r431,667
426,854
420,230

r411,782
412,199
410,592

123.8
123.3
121.8

April
May
June

428,455
421,613
425,475

420,460
413,038
415,467

July
August
September

427,473
429,310
442,206

October
November
December

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(1st Q

1966 = 100)

1985
January
February
March

L, L, L

(Number)
Revised2

96.0
93.7
93.7

121.2
122.1
121.4

52,328
53,086
54,574

94.6
91.8
96.5

120.8
120.4
120.4

54,690
55,394
54,313

126.4

94.0
92.4
92.1

121.5
121.2
120.7

54,558
55,843
56,180

107,127
107,007
rlO7,844

111.6

88.4
90.9
93.9

121.2
120.4
119.9

58,385
56,570
57,583

rll7,303
117,200
116,684

rl08,014
109,023
109,665

111.1

95.6
95.9
95.1

119.3
120.8
121.5

58,003
0)59,753
58,867

124.5
124.3
124.4

117,715
118,675
118,960

111,157
111,642
111,700

115.2

96.2
94.8
99.3

122.3
120.7
120.4

59,156
57,733
57,322

419,493
421,843
432,903

125.2
125.1
124.2

119,804
121,523

0)128,331

112,492
113,467
0)119,045

H>i4o!i

97.7
94.9
91.9

120.7
119.3
120.1

57,618
56,303
57,369

435,848
r435,889
0>p448,313

r424,511
r425,470
0>p433,562

rl24.7
rl25.4
rl27.1

121,655
rl21,062
rl26,590

113,062
rll2,302
rll6,565

rl28.7

95.6
91.4
89.1

119.7
118.7
121.6

p57,101
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(H>pl27.8

pll9,272

plO8,924

90.4

P122.3

1KK2

1986
January
February
March

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
I
2

Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984; series 12 reached its high value (123.2) in January 1984.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii .

FEBRUARY 1987




65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

LrL,L

L, L, L

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

10. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)
Revised

4

L, L, L

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

U, Lg, U

L, C, U

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1

Square meters of
floor space2

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

(Millions)

n

(*)

Revised*

1985

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 3
(Bil. dol.)

January
February
March

28.07
33.93
32.24

27.99
0)35.93
33.05

23.63
29.49
27.21

23.90
H>31.86
28.43

81.14
82.48
87.41

7.54
7.66
8.12

29.94

April
May
June

30.28
30.68
32.58

30.45
31.35
33.30

25.46
25.59
27.98

26.04
26.72
29.14

91.95
83.99
69.68

8.54
7.80
6.47

27.'56

July
August
September

31.93
32.21
34.49

32.49
33.10
35.18

26.68
27.55
29.24

27.74
28.89
30.43

91.89
91.41

8.54
8.49

B>93.19

B>8.66

October
November
December

32.61
30.65

33.30
31.39
34.69

27.09
25.79

0)35.13

28.32
27.02
30.58

92.00
92.61
79.23

8.55
8.60
7.36

27^19

E>30.57

January
February
March

28.59
32.88
30.32

28.27
34.45
31.16

24.29
28.64
26.54

24.41
30.64
27.78

70.66
78.41
69.96

6.56
7.28
6.50

23^39

April
May
June

30.49
29.91
30.59

31.02
31.07

27.18
27.73

84.26
76.71

7.83
7.13

32.32

26.18
26.14
26.42

28.62

75.88

7.05

July
August
September

31.51
30.34
32.43

33.41
32.40
33.58

27.39
26.32
28.22

29.76
28.85
29.86

73.10
79.09
80.82

6.79
7.35
7.51

P20.21

October
November
December

31.16
32.76
34.77

32.11
34.17
35.57

26.91
28.44
r30.05

28.35
30.36
r31.41

71.77
85.41
78.29

6.67
7.93
7.27

(NA)

P28.09

P27.79

p24.14

P24.30

83.02

7.71

C Lg, Lg

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

99 '.35

[H>99!88

24ll7
97.18

94i 58

1986

92^22

19^99
85.77

P81.12

(NA)

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
lr
Fhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
2
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Series 11 reached its high value (34.12) in 2d quarter 1984.
"See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
BH^lfc

66FRASER
Digitized for


FEBRUARY 1987 I M J l

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class . . .

C Lg, Lg

61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, Lg

C Lg, U

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures

76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment

C Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

C Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C Lg, C

28. New private housing
units started1

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits x
(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

1985
January
February
March

373.56

37L84

374.91
389.27
407.68

138.3
139.2
138.9

442^7

14919

292.8

1,754
1,673
1,810

130.8
135.2
139.9

172.4

April
May
June

387.86

387!31

400.96
397.75
403.49

140.7
140.8
138.5

463!6

H>154!l

308.9

1,816
1,683
1,678

135.1
137.7
136.9

175! i

July
August
September

389.23

388!58

397.96
408.25
397.48

139.5
141.0
140.4

463'.1

152!3

310.9

1,681
1,743
1,679

136.3
142.1
147.2

180 .'0

October
November
December

[H)397!88

E>397.57

409.30
410.53
H>423.97

138.3
140.8
140.0

E>476\9

152.4

324! 5

1,813
1,690
1,887

135.8
133.0
146.7

181'. 5

January
February
March

377.94

374.18

385.23
398.64
401.72

0)141.5
140.5
137.7

457.8

148.1

309.7

2,004
1,923
1,887

148.4
144.2
146.3

186.3

April
May
June

375^92

372.73

402.58
390.01
397.39

138.6
137.9
136.6

456.8

132.9

323*.9

1,945
1,848
1,842

150.3
142.6
142.9

192^7

July
August
September

374.55

368.69

400.04
400.00
396.15

137.9
139.3
139.3

454.4

129.5

324.9

1,786
1,800
1,689

140.3
133.4
127.8

197.2

October
November
December

a394.34

a389.17

r401.88
r399.59
P415.80

rl39.1
rl38.9
rl38.3

r455.9

rl27."l

H)r328.8

1,657
1,637
1,808

124.8
128.6
152.3

[H)r200.2

January
February
March

(NA)

P138.9

pi,806

134.8

a386.82

a380.04

April
May
June

a393^39

a386.29

1986

1987

July
August
September
October
November"
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
x
2

Series 28 reached its high value (2,260) in February 1984; series 29 reached its high value (158.5) in February 1984.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1987




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

Process

Timing Class . . .

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
Year

L, L, L

L. L, L

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars1

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories, book
value1

dollars 1
Smoothed 2

Actual

and
month
(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

Revised

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)
3

Revised

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order1
(Bil. dol.)

Lg- Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value
(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods, book
value
(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars
(Ratio)

L, Lg, Lg

78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order1
(Bil. dol.)

3

1985

23^2

27.36
15.05
-19.79

12.50
13.87
10.05

28.4
32.9
-2.1

0.65
-0.48
-3.07

575.80
578.54
578.37

632.39
634.14
634.21

89.69
89.86
90.12

1.59
1.58
1.58

217.95
217.47
214.40

17^4

7.68
-25.25
8.28

4.26
-5.74
-7.78

2.0
-8.6
27.5

-0.94
-1.54
1.68

578.53
577.81
580.11

635.58
634.35
635.39

90.12
D90.13
89.87

1.56
1.55

H>1.59

213.46
211.93
213.61

0.7

7.82
-16.14
-5.88

-3.07
-1.53
-2.37

3.2
-10.6
0.4

-0.46
0.31
-0.11

580.37
579.49
579.52

636.56
635.86
635.69

89.26
88.86
88.26

1.57
1.55
1.55

213.15
213.46
213.35

-h'.2

24.85
13.33
5.11

-1.90
5.85
12.60

29.6
8.7
r6.3

-0.34
-1.28
1.83

581.99
582.71
r583.23

637.74
638.64
638.43

87.58
88.24
88.37

1.56
1.55
1.55

213.69
212.41
214.24

39.'9

31.94
17.88
44.27

15.61
17.55
24.84

r20.8
2.5
36.0

-0.26
1.43
-1.10

584.97
585.18
588.18

640.58
641.50
645.87

87.92
87.53
87.62

1.56
1.56
1.57

213.99
215.41
214.31

April
May
June

15.1

14.44
-51.86
7.55

28.45
13.91
-3.84

5.1
-22.5
26.2

-1.76
-1.39
-0.85

588.60
586.73
588.91

647.86
645.28
646.28

87.80
87.66
86.71

1.54
1.56
1.56

212.56
211.17
210.31

July
August
September

-0.3

14.18
-18.84
-34.06

-10.00
-4.54
-5.97

35.8
-21.0
-24.9

-0.24
-0.58
2.07

0)591.90
590.14
588.07

H>648.42
646.97
643.48

87.28
86.73
85.52

1.55
1.53
1.49

210.08
209.50
211.57

r-24^4

9.47
-9.23
p-4.30

-13.69
-12.88
p-6.31

41.8
r-18.0
p-34.6

-0.82
0.35
pi.44

591.56
r590.05
P587.17

r644.56
r643.86
P641.54

85.45
86.74
P86.29

1.52
1.51
pi.48

210.76
211.10
P212.55

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
.November
December
1986
January
February
March

October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 21.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 30 (85.1) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (89.20) in February
1984, series 36 smoothed (76.27) in April 1984, series 31 (88.9) in February 1984, series 38 (3.02) in October 1983, and series 78 (222.58)
in July 1984.
2
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

68




FEBRUARY 1987 I M ] | I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q U

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

L, L, L

U, L, L

98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials12®

(Percent)

(1967 = 100)

Revised

5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

L, L, L

L, L, L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

Smoothedx 3

Actual

(Percent)

(Percent)
Revised

5

Revised

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars1

L, C, L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj^

79. Current
18. Constant
(1982) dollars1 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)

5

1985

-0.14
-1.54
-0.52

255.8
253.1
252.4

-0.77
-1.12
-0.35

-0.52
-0.68
-0.83

171.61
180.88
179.42

126.0

118^7

178.7

in.i

5*.l

0.00
0.66
0.10

257.1
252.0
242.9

0.57
-0.26
-1.00

-0.52
-0.16
-0.12

180.62
184.90
188.89

126.7

118.8

187.2

179.8

5.0

July
August
September

-0.03
-0.42
-0.35

240.7
239.8
238.0

-0.31
-0.31
-0.40

-0.38
-0.53
-0.44

192.54
188.31
184.06

133^4

124^9

200^5

0)192^3

October
November
December

0.52
-0.35
-0.28

236.9
234.5
235.0

0.13
-0.49
-0.09

-0.27
-0.22
-0.20

186.18
197.45
207.26

139*.4

130.1

189^2

18CL2

5.3

January
February
March

-0.14
-1.15
0.60

236.9
233.3
223.1

0.18
-1.03
-0.99

-0.14
-0.22
-0.46

208.19
219.37
232.33

126*.9

116\5

0)200.7

190.1

4.5

April
May
June

2.00
0.38
-0.62

219.9
221.3
225.0

0.59
0.41
0.14

-0.54
-0.24
0.19

237.98
238.46
245.30

128.8

118.3

194.2

183.6

4.8

July
August
September

0.66
-2.57
1.37

227.6
212.0
221.2

0.72
-3.40
1.99

0.40
-0.21
-0.54

240.18
245.00
238.27

135.9

12^3

197^6

185\3

5*.6

October
November
December

1.49
0.75
0.31

235.5
243.7
247.5

0)2.64
1.37
0.66

0.09
1.20
1.78

237.36
245.09
248.61

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

252.8
247.2

0.69

1.23

0)264.51
7
281.65

January
February
March
April
May
June

1986

1987
January
February
March

0.17

6

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
lr
fhe following series reached their high values before 1985: series 98 (2.83), Feb. 1983; series 23 (289.5), May 1984; series 99 smoothed
2
(1.81), Apr. 1983; series 16 (146.4), IQ 1984; series 18 (142.7), IQ 1984; and series 22 (6.7), IIIQ 1983.
This is a copyrighted series
used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3 See footnote 2 on page 68.
5
6
7
'•See footnote 1 on page 70. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Avg. for Feb. 2-25. Avg. for Feb. 4, 11, 18, 25.

FEBRUARY 1987



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC

^

PROCESS

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued

Minor Economic

Timing Class

U, L, L

Year
and
month

L, L, L

L, L, L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

Process

L, L, L

L, L, L

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

68. Labor cost

62. Index of labor cost per unit

64. Compen-

unit labor cost,

per unit of real

of output, manufacturing

sation of em-

business sector

gross domestic

15. Profits after

26. Ratio, im-

porate domes-

taxes per dollar

plicit price de-

tic profits after

of sales, manu-

flator to unit

tax with IVA

facturing cor-

labor cost,

34. Current

35. Constant

product, non-

nonfarm busi-

dollars

(1982) dollars

and CCAdj to

porations

2

ness sector

corp. domestic
income1
(Percent)

(1977 = 100)

(Cents)

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of

81. Ratio, cor-

Corporate net cash flow

Lg, Lg, Lg

(1977 = 100)

ployees as a
Actual data

percent of na-

financial cor-

as a percent

tional income

porations

of trend

(Dollars)

Actual data

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(3)
1985
January

4.2

7.9

February

36L0

98.7

36C)!i

163*. 1

0.704

March
April

8^2

May

3.7

370^8

98.9

36^5

164^0

0.708

June
July

0)8.8

August

0)99^3

3.7

382! 8

381.6

164!i

0.705

September
October
November

98.2

3.6

7.*9

0)389.4

0)388 .'i

167^3

0.716

December

138.1

87.7

137.5

86.9

137.5

86.5

136.8

85.7

136.9

85.4

137.7

85.4

137.8

85.1

137.8

84.7

138.0

84.4

139.7

85.1

138.6

84.0

139.4

84.1

73^4

73^5

73l4

73.7

1986
January

8.2

February

3.6

99.0

374^3

374^2

167!o

0.721

March
April

k'.i

May

4.3

98.8

374^9

374! i

168^0

0.724

June
July
August
September

8*.i

99.0

p3.4

384.3

383 '.8

169.3

0)0.727

October
November

(NA)

r97.7

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

December

0)rl7i'.4

(NA)

138.1

82.9

138.6

82.8

0)140.4

83.5

138.4
139.1
138.6

82.0

137.8
138.2
138.1

82.0

80.4
80.3

139.4
rl38.2
137.7

r79.2

P137.3

p77.9

80.2
78.5

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
X

1VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption

Series

3

See

70

15 reached

its high value

"New Features and Changes




adjustment.

(4.9) in 2d quarter 1984.

for This

0)73^8

79.9

February

2

73.5

81.3

1987
January

n'j

Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1987

(NA)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

IL, L

85. Change
in money
supply M l

L, C, U

102. Change
in money
supply M2 l

Velocity of Money

U, L

L, L, L

104. Change
in total liquid
assets *

105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

Revised 2

Revised 2

(2)

L, L, L

Year
and
month

C,C, C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml 1

Credit Flows

C, Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M21

IL, L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

112. Net change
in business loans

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised 2

Revised 2

January
February
March

0.79
1.14
0.51

1.10
0.91
0.31

0.72
0.87
0.67

514.3
518.1
517.9

2,192.9
2,203.8
2,199.0

6.881

1.345
1.345
1.348

71.21
59.26
101.14

53.58
21.95
26.83

April
May
June

0.61
1.18
1.44

0.21
0.72
1.10

0.17
0.52
0.79

519.3
523.8
530.2

2,195.9
2,204.8
2,224.3

6.801

1.357
1.341
1.333

86.62
66.98
73.73

14.87
27.46
-45.89

July
August
September

0.90
1.44
1.11

0.69
0.78
0.57

0.48
0.77
0.76

533.9
540.8
546.1

2,235.5
2,249.5
2,259.4

6.671

1.328
1.320
1.318

58.92
68.39
42.35

16.58
3.66
-14.63

October
November
December

0.44
0.86
1.23

0.36
0.57
0.80

0.59
1.00
1.03

546.4
548.3
553.3

2,255.7
2,256.6
2,267.6

r6.59i

1.325
1.323
1.330

125.47
71.12
106.55

65.16
64.68
38.89

January
February
March

0.30
0.52
1.31

0.20
0.30
0.64

r0.58
r0.48
r0.38

553.1
557.5
567.1

2,264.5
2,277.4
2,301.1

r6.546

1.327
1.330
1.326

-23.17
57.40
43.56

56.50
-51.02
-29.54

April
May
June

1.20
1.76
1.20

0.96
0.89
0.77

r0.64
r0.82
r0.52

575.5
584.2
588.7

2,329.7
2,344.8
2,352.6

r6.342

1.329
1.315
1.305

52.58
30.83
(NA)

-40.38
21.79
-30.85

July
August
September

1.36
1.54
0.89

0.98
0.91
0.65

r0.68
rO.73
r0.74

596.5
604.8
608.3

2,375.1
2,393.2
2,401.4

6.185

1.296
1.287
1.282

6.19
49.01
-15.90

October
November
December

1.20
1.57

0)2.54

0.88
0.51
0.86

r0.65
rO.61
pO.75

614.5
622.6
637.3

2,418.2
2,424.9
2,441.2

r5.961

1.274
1.270
1.267

r36.34
r31.62
r93.61

pO.97

p0.78

(NA)

[H>p639.2

[H>p2,444.0

pi.258

[H>pl20.92

1985

(2)

(Ratio)

Revised 2

(2)

1986

1987
January
February
March

3

-0.16

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 102 (2.79) in January 1983, series 104 (1.31) in January 1983, series
107 (6.940) in 4th quarter 1984, series 108 (1.375) in March 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Average for weeks ended February 3, 10, and 17.

FEBRUARY 1987




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC

1 9

PROCESS
Minor Economic

Timing Class

L, L,L

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
Year

credit

L, L,L

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding x

and

L, L, L

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©

month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows—Continued

Process

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

L, L, L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and overx
(Percent)

Interest Rates

L, U, U

L, Lg, U

93. Free
reserves1©

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

L, Lg. Lg

119. Federal
funds rate 1 ©

(Percent)

C Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills 1 ©

(Percent)

1985

75.16
82.16
99.59

13.2
10.3
13.0

512,540

1,821.0
2,409.8
3,485.8

2.20
2.19
2.40

-650
-386
-827

1,395
1,289
1,593

8.35
8.50
8.58

7.76
8.22
8.57

90.52
75.96
52.69

10.0
9.4
3.7

540,744

p3,279.8
p3,261.9
p2,995.6

2.38
2.25
2.33

-585
-530
-300

1,323
1,334
1,205

8.27
7.97
7.53

8.00
7.56
7.01

81.43
72.61
H>123.96

9.3
8.5
9.8

591,564

p2,150.5
p3,162.4
pi,925.3

2.29
2.35
2.39

-252
-246
-623

1,107
1,073
1,289

7.88
7.90
7.92

7.05
7.18
7.08

78.70
67.72
77.72

15.6
10.9
11.7

0)944,524

pi,824.6
p5,026.9
pi,707.8

2.26
2.32
2.32

-434
-813
-260

1,187
1,741
1,318

7.99
8.05
8.27

7.17
7.20
7.07

March

91.86
61.19
37.04

12.6
3.4
3.8

r460,156

p3,590.4
p3,518.2
p2,746.6

2.27
2.29
2.41

r241
rlO8
r57

770
884
761

8.14
7.86
7.48

7.04
7.03
6.59

April
May
June

58.45
77.48
64.63

3.0
8.6
3.1

(NA)
r576,416

2.44
2.52
2.53

r-175
r-62
r35

893
876

803

6.99
6.85
6.92

6.06
6.12
6.21

July
August
September

66.77
40.72
92.69

r7.3
6.5
4.4

r694,724

2.22
2.33
2.24

rl63
-132
-282

741
872
1,008

6.56
6.17
5.89

5.84
5.57
5.19

86.50
r39.38
pi.26

r9.7
r6.2
rl2.4

p780,524

1.81
1.95
1.85

-95
226
542

841
752
827

5.85
6.04
6.91

5.18
5.35
5.49

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p491

p580

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1986
January
February

October
November
December
1987
January
February

2

6.43
6.13

3

5.45
5.59

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13r 32, 33, and 34.
lr
fhe following series reached their high values before 1985: series 111 (21.6) in June 1984, series 14 (829.2) in July 1983, series 39
(1.78) in February 1984, series 93 (-7,328) in August 1984, series 94 (8,017) in August 1984, series 119 (11.64) in August 1984, and series
114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2 Average for weeks ended February 4, 11 , 1 8 , and 25. 3 Average for weeks ended February 5, 12, 19, and 26.

72




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Interest Rates—Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds 1 ©

(Percent)

C Lg, Lg

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1©

(Percent)

U, Lg, Lg

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average1©

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Outstanding Debt

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages Xu)

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks 1 ©

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

1985

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

(2)

(2)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)

January
February
March

12.46
12.39
12.85

11.15
11.35
11.78

9.51
9.65
9.77

13.01
13.27
13.43

io!io

10.61
10.50
10.50

459,843
466,690
474,989

324,947
326,776
329,012

314,262
316,337
319,119

14.25
14.32
14.51

April
May
June

12.45
11.85
11.33

11.42
10.96
10.36

9.42
9.01
8.69

12.97
12.28
11.89

9.90

10.50
10.31
9.78

482,532
488,862
493,253

330,251
332,539
328,715

319,701
321,294
318,214

14.61
14.87
14.92

July
August
September

11.28
11.61
11.66

10.51
10.59
10.67

8.81
9.08
9.27

12.12
11.99
12.04

9.27

9.50
9.50
9.50

500,039
506,090
516,420

330,097
330,402
329,183

319,861
321,716
322,412

15.08
15.24
15.49

October
November
December

11.51
11.17
10.42

10.56
10.08
9.60

9.08
8.54
8.43

11.87
11.28
10.70

9^68

9.50
9.50
9.50

522,978
528,621
535,098

334,613
340,003
343,244

325,183
328,823
331,317

15.57
15.68
15.66

10.33
9.76
8.95

9.51
9.07
8.13

8.08
7.44
7.08

10.78
10.59
9.77

9.29

9.50
9.50
9.10

542,753
547,852
550,939

347,952
343,700
341,238

337,163
337,955
340,217

15.88
15.95
15.99

April
May
June

8.71
9.09
9.39

7.59
8.02
8.23

7.20
7.54
7.87

9.80
10.07
9.98

8.13

8.83
8.50
8.50

555,810
562,267
567,653

337,873
339,689
337,118

339,230
339,689
337,455

15.94
16.15
16.30

July
August
September

9.11
9.03
9.28

7.86
7.72
8.08

7.51
7.21
7.11

10.01
9.80
9.90

7^73

8.16
7.90
7.50

573,216
576,609
584,334

337,634
341,718
340,393

339,672
344,127
r342,448

16.42
16.48
16.66

October
November
December

9.29
8.99
8.87

8.04
7.81
7.67

7.08
6.85
6.86

9.80
9.26
9.21

7.28

591,542
7.50
r594,824
7.50
7.50 ' [H>p594,929

r343,421
r346,056
353,857

r344,454
r346,749
355,278

16.81
H>rl6.88
P16.77

6.61
6.61

8.79

(NA)

0)p363,934

@>P362,123

(NA)

1986
January
February
March

1987
January
February
March

2

8.59
8.56

2

7.60
7.69

3

7.50
7.50

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 116 (14.49) in June 1984, series 115 (13.00) in June 1984, series 117
(10.67) in June 1984, series 118 (15.01) in May 1984, series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984, and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984.
2
Average for weeks ended February 6, 13, 20, and 27.
3
Average for weeks ended February 5, 12, 19, and 26.

ICO

FEBRUARY 1987




73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

0 1

Year
and
month

950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,

DIFFUSION INDEXES

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77 91, 95,
101, 109)

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41,47,51,57)

HI)

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs ,51
areas 1

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries

9-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

33.3

52.4
47.8
53.8

49.2
47.8
43.0

1985
January
February
March

70.8
50.0
33.3

62.5
50.0
58.3

100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
75.0

66.7
50.0
58.3

50.0
50.0
66.7

35.0
22.5
85.0

40.0
40.0
47.5

11.8
72.5
84.3

41.2
64.7

April
May
June

33.3
70.8
54.2

50.0
58.3
66.7

100.0
62.5
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
50.0
33.3

58.3
50.0
50.0

12.5
77.5
77.5

55.0
67.5
67.5

19.6
45.1
88.2

64.7
58.8
68.6

49.2

51.6
47.0

45.9
44.3
44.3

July
August
September

62.5
58.3
62.5

83.3
79.2
83.3

50.0
100.0
50.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
50.0
58.3

58.3
41.7
50.0

27.5
87.5
65.0

87.5
92.5
97.5

7.8
82.4
59.8

64.7
13.7
60.8

56.2
56.8
50.8

48.9
50.8
54.1

October
November
December

75.0
37.5
75.0

83.3
75.0
45.8

50.0
87.5
87.5

100.0
100.0
62.5

91.7
41.7
66.7

58.3
75.0
66.7

75.0
52.5
95.0

75.0
80.0

80.0

23.5
74.5
27.5

64.7
33.3
64.7

61.9
57.6
59.5

57.0
57.0
55.9

62.5
50.0
62.5

62.5
r54.2
50.0

75.0
75.0
50.0

100.0
75.0
75.0

75.0
50.0
83.3

50.0
66.7
58.3

22.5
22.5
72.5

80.0
57.5
27.5

r58.8
52.9
62.7

49.0
39.2
51.0

59.7
53.5
45.1

53.8
53.8
47.6

r66.7
r54.2
54.2

58.3
58.3
66.7

100.0
25.0
37.5

75.0
75.0
100.0

0.0
58.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
33.3

45.0
45.0
45.0

60.0
30.0
40.0

25.5
74.5
56.9

56.9
58.8
69.6

54.1
49.2
46.2

45.9
45.9
48.6

August
September

62.5
41.7
54.2

62.5
66.7
91.7

75.0
100.0
50.0

75.0
75.0
100.0

50.0
33.3
33.3

33.3
41.7
50.0

42.5
90.0
57.5

r75.0
r67.5
p82.5

34.3
77.5
19.6

r92.2
p47.1
(NA)

54.6
54.3
54.9

r55.4
r63.0

October
November
December

41.7
75.0
83.3

80.0

75.0
87.5
100.0

3

91.7
58.3
25.0

"50.0

50.0
r82.5
r47.5

r66.7
r80.4
p7.8

55.1
r62.7
r61.9

P65.0

(NA)

p56.2

50.0

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

2

66.7

49.7

p63.2

1987
January
February
March

2

40.0

3

66.7

"50.0

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Figures are the percent of components declining.
2
Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
4
Hxcludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74




FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q |

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

1-quarter
span

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

966. Industrial production, 24 industries

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials @

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocksx(u)

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies2 (u)

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

39.6
56.2
70.8

54.2
62.5
66.7

23.1
38.5
57.7

23.1
23.1
23.1

89.1
93.5
37.0

77.8
73.3
85.6

*70

'54

66.7
72.9
58.3

76.9
38.5
23.1

23.1
38.5
46.2

55.4
66.7
75.6

77.8
82.2
73.3

72

'51

56.2
58.3
50.0

60.4
66.7
68.8

38.5
46.2
46.2

38.5
46.2
38.5

76.7
30.0
11.1

75.6
82.2
86.0

*70

*48

54.2
68.8
50.0

75.0
70.8
60.4

42.3
23.1
57.7

53.8
53.8
53.8

55.6
88.9
86.7

88.1
92.9
90.5

70

43

41.7
70.8
58.3

68.8
47.9
50.0

61.5
38.5
34.6

46.2
50.0
57.7

60.5

81.0
94.0

90.5
90.5
88.1

*70

p46

70.8
39.6
22.9

45.8
54.2
54.2

53.8
61.5
65.4

42.3
50.0
50.0

61.9
50.0
77.4

88.1
90.5
81.0

(NA)

(NA)

79.2
37.5
50.0
58.3
68.8
33.3

r54.2
r79.2
r83.3

50.0
50.0
65.4

50.0
65.4
73.1

35.7
67.9
42.9

81.0
71.4
78.6

r64.6
r62.5
r68.8

p87.5

73.1
61.5
65.4

65.4

34.5
76.2
50.0

4-Q moving
average

(4-quarter span)

1985
January
February
March

52.9
35.3
55.9

45.6
63.2
52.9

50

April
May
June

47.1
60.3
61.8

64.7
54.4
50.0

42

July
August
September

55.9
55.9
45.6

67.6
47.1
61.8

59

October
November
December

57.4
50.0
35.3

52.9
47.1
52.9

53

January
February
March

55.9
44.1
42.6

41.2
44.1
47.1

36

April
May
June

61.8
32.4
64.7

41.2
66.2
47.1

24

July
August
September

50.0
38.2
70.6

47.1
r52.9
p44.1

P71

October
November
December

44.1
51.5
r55.9

1986

(NA)

3

1987
P47.1

January
February
March

p81.3
3

84.6
42.3

98.8

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
^ a s e d on 46 industries through April 1985, on 45 industries through December 1985, on 43 industries through January 1986, and on 42 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
Bradstreet, Inc.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun
3
Based on average for February 3, 10, 17, and 24.

FEBRUARY 1987




75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q
970.
Year

Expenditures for new plant and equipment

21 industries

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

971. New orders, manufacturi i g 1 ©

972.

Net profits, manufacturing

Actual

Actual

and trade'

973.

Net sales, manufacturing

and trade'

©

©

and
quarter

a. Actual

b. Later

c. Early

expenditures

projections

projections

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

Anticipated

(1-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1984

First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

97.6
76.2
90.5
66.7

90.
61.
76. ?
76. I

61.9
71.4
95.2
45.2

90
86
84
79

88
91
90
88

80
79
74
74

84
86
88
84

85
84
82
80

88
90
90
88

61.9
76.2
64.3
59.5

57. 1
76. ?
71. \
52.;

61.9
83.3
76.2
38.1

74
74
76
75

82
84
82
80

70
69
70
70

80
81
81
78

76
74
75
74

84
84
84
81

19.0
57.1
70.8
(NA)

35. 1
66. 1
42.
85. 1

47.6
69.0
47.6
66.7

76
76
74

82
83
84
78

10
71
70

78
81
81
78

72
73
74

81
84
83
80

1985

First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1986

First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
•
....

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1987

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

38.1

....

80

78

82

....

[ Q
974.

Year
and
quarter

Number of employees,

manufacturing and trade'
Actual

975.

976.

Level of inventorie

Anticipated

factoring1 ©

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

977.

Selling price s, manu-

manufacturing and tradt

"©

©

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
978. Selling prices, retail
trade 1 ©

Selling price 5, wholesale

trade 1 ©

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

....

65
63

....

62
62

62
64
64

72
70
70
70

66
70
70
66

74
70
70
68

74
76
76
72

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

73
69
65
65

72
76
7E
72

72
68
70
70

70
74
74
68

(4-Q span)

1984
First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

62

1985

First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

60

60

58
58
59

62
59
58

66
63
60
61

64
66
62
58

65
62
61
61

70
70
64
62

64
60
59
60

6£
66
66
6C)

66
63
66
62

65
70
67
62

58
59
60
(NA)

59
60
59
58

62
61
62
(NA)

58
58
60
57

59
60
58

62
65
62
59

59
59
58

64
6'
62
62

60
62
66

62
62
64
64

1986

First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1987

First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

60
....

60

60

64

6:

....

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement.

The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
lr

rhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76




FEBRUARY 1987

Dun §

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change

Diffusion index components

1987

1986
June

August

July

September

November

October

Decemberr

JanuaryP

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '

(Hours)

All manufacturing industries

_

Percent rising of 20 components

40.6

0

40.6

+

(42)

(45)

40.8

0

(90)

40.8

40.7

(58)

(50)

+

40.8

0

(82)

40.8

+

40.9
(65)

(48)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

o

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

-

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

0

Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

0

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

+

39.9
39.4

0

42.2
41.6

0

41.1
41.7

0

41.0
42.2

I
-

41.0
39.6

40.1
39.4

+
+

40.2
39.9

42.2
41.3

+
+

42.5
41.9

41.1
41.4

+
+

41.2
41.7

0

41.1
42.1

+
+

41.2
42.6

40.8
38.8

+
+

41.0
39.2

40.0
35.9

+
+

40.3
36.2

40.9
36.6

+

41.4
36.5

43.2
37.9

+
+

43.5
38.0

41.9
43.5

+
+

42.1
44.3

40.5
37.0

+

41.2
36.7

+

40.1
40.0

+

40.3
39.8

+

40.7
r39.6

0

40.3
39.6

+
+

40.5
40.3

+

42.1
42.5

+
+

42.4
42.7

41.1
41.6

+
+

41.4
42.0

40.9
42.0

+

40.8
42.4

42.3
42.3

+

41.9
42.4

41.5
41.7

41.2
41.6

+
+

41.4
41.7

0
0

41.2
42.6

40.9
42.1

+
+

r41.0
42.3

40.7
39.6

+
+

41.1
39.8

+
+

41.2
40.2

+

41.3
40.3

+

;

41.4
39.6

39.7
38.5

+
+

39.8
39.1

+

r40.0
38.4

-

39.9
37.9

+

40.0
37.4

+

41.6
36.7

o

41.5
36.7

o
+

r41.5
36.9

0

43.0
38.0

o
o

43.0
38.0

+
+

43.2
r38.1

42.0
43.4

+
+

42.2
43.7

+
+

r42.5
r43.8

41.6
36.8

o

41.4
36.8

+
+

41.7
r37.2

0

42.5
42.0

+

-

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers

+

40.0
38.3

0

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

0

40.8
36.5

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

_

43.1
37.8

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

41.9
44.0

0

+

41.3
37.7

-

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

+

+

+

-

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES

0

0
+

42.0
37.0

o

41.8
37.0

43.2
38.0

+
+

43.6
38.1

42.4
43.8

+
0

42.6
43.8

42.2
37.9

-

41.4
37.3

-

102,114

1 2

(Millions of dollars)

All durable goods industries
Percent rising of 34 components

+

102,730

+ 106,220

(65)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

9,323
13,998

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

16,888
17,913

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

23,531
21,077

_ 103,845

(50)

0
+

9,060
13,993

+

17,233
16,953

-

28,359
20,622

+

+ 108,723

-

103,569

+ 108,826

+ 110,413

(44)

(52)

(56)

10,584
14,413

(38)

(71)

10,245
13,702

9,842
14,051

+

9,713
14,217

+

9,441
14,300

16,523
17,672

-

15,231
17,083

+
-

16,951
16,739

28,964
21,671

-

26,115
21,210

+
-

30,247
21,148

16,603
15,952
26,704
20,639

+

+

(47)

_

(NA)
13,445

15,747
18,321

-

14,117
14,893

30,055
21,293

-

28,580
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

FEBRUARY 1987




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

0

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS : Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued

1

1986

Diffusion index components

June

July

September

August

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1987
0ctober r

Novemberr

December^

+

+

+

January p

J

(1977 = 100)

o

All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components

124.2

+

124.9

+

125.1

124.9

125.3

126.0

126.4

(62)

(65)

(33)

(69)

(58)

(50)

-

+

126.9

(69)

(81)

(NA)
150.4

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
74.2

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+

Clay, glass, and- stone products

+

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+

Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery

122.5
148.3

+
-

125.0
147.7

+
+

125.9
149.2

+

+

119.7
73.4

+
+

121.6
74.1

+

118.1
74.2

+
+

105.7
142.6

+
o

105.9
142.6

+

107.3
140.9

+
+

108.3
142.2

+
+

166.8
125.6

+

167.2
125.1

+

166.9
127.7

+
-

167.7
125.2

+

141.7
97.5

+
+

142.0
98.3

-

141.7
97.7

+

134.3
89.8

120.9
147.1

120.8
149.5

+

+

120.8
71.4

+

119.6
73.6

106.6
140.4

+

163.2
125.1

129.3
148.6

+

120.6
76.8

+

121.6
74.7

107.1
141.6

+

108.4
104.7

+
+

109.4
141.7

+
+

168.2
125.6

+
+

169.9
127.5

+
+

170.0
127.9

140.3
99.0

+

141.1
98.9

+
+

142.2
100.6

+

142.5
(NA)

+

133.7
100.1

+

134.1
99.7

+

134.9
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

116.0
102.7

+
+

116.1
104.2

+
+

117.9
105.1

+

117.7
106.1

(NA)
(NA)

Transportation equipment

+

Instruments

-

139.9
98.3

+

134.6
97.6

134.3
97.9

+

+

135.1
97.1

+

112.6
101.7

+
+

113.4
102.5

+
o

114.7
102.5

Printing and publishing

+
+

137.2
164.0

+
+

138.1
165.4

+
-

138.6
164.6

136.9
163.0

+
+

137.8
167.8

+
+

139.5
168.5

+
o

141.4
168.5

+

(NA)
170.0

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

+

134.2
91.8

-

134.1

+

134.4

133.9

o

133.9

+

94.0

93.3

91.1

+

132.9
91.5

+
+

133.5
92.5

+

(NA)
93.5

Rubber and plastics products

+

152.2
57.9

+
+

155.5
61.9

o
+

155.5
62.0

154.9
59.4

+
+

157.6
60.2

+
+

159.0
61.3

+

160.0
61.1

(NA)
(NA)

65.9
127.3

+

+

69.2
120.2

+
+

70.9
122.2

70.7
120.8

-

68.5
117.6

+

(NA)
130.1

-

(NA)
124.8

(NA)
(NA)

+

93.3
114.5

92.4
111.8

+

90.7
114.8

91.0
111.7

+

90.5
116.4

-

89.4
115.2

-

88.8
114.8

88.7
(NA)

Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products

Leather and products

90.6

+
+

Mining:
Metal mining
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation,

the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:

+
-

( t ) -= rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - )

= falling.

The "r" indicates revised: "p"

preliminary: and " N A " , not available.
x

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.

2

Where actual data for separate industries are not ava i l a b l e ,

78



estimates

are

used to

compute

the

percent

rising.

FEBRUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

| Q

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: BasicData and Direct ons of Change- Continued
1987

1986

Diffusion index components

967.

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100)

+

Percent rising of 13 components

August

July

June

225.0

September

October

INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS

+

227.6

-

212.0

(50)

(65)

+

(50)

221.2

+

(65)

November

December

January

February 1

+

+

+

-

2

235.5

243.7
(62)

(73)

247.5

252.8

247.2
(42)

(85)

(65)

Dollars

Copper scrap

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.466
1.027

-

0.428
0.944

-

0.416
0.917

+

0.444
0.979

-

0.431
0.950

-

0.429
0.946

+

0.442
0.974

+

0.448
0.988

+

0.452
0.996

Lead scrap

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.126
0.278

+

0.130
0.287

-

0.126
0.278

+

0.138
0.304

+

0.153
0.337

+

0.173
0.381

+

0.177
0.390

+

0.178
0.392

-

0.167
0.368

Steel scrap

(U.S. ton).,
(metric ton)..

- 70.000
77.161

o 70.000
77.161

+ 74.750
82.397

- 72.600
80.027

- 71.500
78.814

- 71.000
78.263

+ 71.400
78.704

+ 75.000
82.673

+ 77.000
84.877

Tin

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

3.060
6.746

-

3.056
6.737

+

3.068
6.764

-

3.052
6.728

+

3.138
6.918

+

3.430
7.562

+

3.636
8.016

+

3.795
8.366

-

3.778
8.329

Zinc

(pound)..
(kilogram).,

+

0.395
0.871

+

0.430
0.948

+

0.444
0.979

+

0.453
0.999

+

0.481
1.060

+

0.489
1.078

-

0.449
0.990

-

0.433
0.955

-

0.414
0.913

Burlap

(yard)..
(meter)..

+

0.247
0.270

-

0.242
0.265

-

0.229
0.250

-

0.220
0.241

-

0.217
0.237

+

0.218
0.238

+

0.226
0.247

+

0.238
0.260

-

0.237
0.259

Cotton

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.669
1.475

-

0.666
1.468

-

0.267
0.589

+

0.336
0.741

+

0.442
0.974

+

0.457
1.008

+

0.542
1.195

+

0.575
1.268

-

0.550
1.213

Print cloth

(yard)..
(meter)..

+

0.702
0.768

+

0.712
0.779

-

0.700
0.766

+

0.760
0.831

+

0.868
0.949

+

1.035
1.132

-

0.904
0.989

+

0.920
1.006

+

0.968
1.059

Wool tops

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

3.200
7.055

o

3.200
7.055

+

3.275
7.220

+

3.300
7.275

+

3.805
8.389

+

3.980
8.774

+

4.000
8.818

o

4.000
8.818

-

3.300
7.275

Hides

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.785
1.731

-

0.784
1.728

-

0.768
1.693

-

0.745
1.642

+

0.760
1.675

-

0.752
1.658

-

0.717
1.581

+

0.718
1.583

+

0.736
1.623

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

3

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

Rubber

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.408
0.899

+

0.434
0.957

+

0.435
0.959

+

0.451
0.994

+

0.468
1.032

-

0.448
0.988

-

0.447
0.985

+

0.459
1.012

+

0.465
1.025

Taliow

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.087
0.192

+

0.097
0.214

+

0.098
0.216

+

0.112
0.247

+

0.123
0.271

o

0.123
0.271

+

0.142
0.313

+

0.152
0.335

-

0.143
0.315

NOTE: To f a c i l i t a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , t h e m o n t h - t o - m o n t h
preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
x

d i r e c t i o n s of c h a n g e are s h o w n a l o n g w i t h t h e n u m b e r s :

The index is the average for February 2 through
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau,
3
Data beginning August 1, 1986, reflect a change
2

FEBRUARY 1987




( t )

rising, ( o )

unchanged, and ( - )

falling.

The " r " i n d i c a t e s r e v i s e d : " p "

25; component prices are averages for February 3, 10, 17, and 24.
are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
in the domestic Federal price support for cotton.

79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

^

Year

200.

H

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

217.

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

Gross national product in current dollars

quarter

Per capita

gross national

and

213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars

product in 1982
b. Difference

a. Total

(Ann.

(Ann.

rate,

rate,

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

c. Percent

dollars

change at

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

b. Difference

a. Total

annual rate
(Ann.

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

rate,

dollars)

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

3,670.9
3,743.8
3,799.7
3,845.6

125.1
72.9
55.9
45.9

14.9
8.2
6.1
4.9

3,444.7
3,487.1
3,507.4
3,520.4

79.6
42.4
20.3
13.0

9.8
5.0
2.3
1.5

14,582
14,730
14,778
14,795

3,359.6
3,430.0
3,446.8
3,486.4

3,909.3
3,965.0
4,030.5
4,087.7

63.7
55.7
65.5
57.2

6.8
5.8
6.8
5.8

3,547.0
3,567.6
3,603.8
3,622.3

26.6
20.6
36.2
18.5

3.1
2.3
4.1
2.1

14,874
14,928
15,041
15,080

3,523.9
3,550.2
3,603.1
3,627.5

4,149.2
4,175.6
4,240.7
r4,260.6

61.5
26.4
65.1
rl9.9

6.2
2.6
6.4

3,655.9
3,661.4
3,686.4
r3,698.3

33.6
5.5
25.0

3.8
0.6
2.8
rl.3

15,188
15,179
15,246
rl5,258

3,616.1
3,646.3
3,686.7
r3,722.7

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

rl.9

rll.9

1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

Q

Year
and
quarter

|

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued

Q

230.

Disposable personal income

Total in current

dollars
224.

Current dollars

(Ann.

225. Constant
(1982) dollars

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

231. Total in 1982

232.

dollars

in current dollars

Durable goods

233.

Durable goods

in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rat e,
dollars

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

2,612.7
2,646.3
2,693.8
2,729.6

2,446.9
2,460.3
2,481.9
2,493.1

10,358
10,392

2,755.4
2,842.3
2,832.0
2,882.2

2,935.1
2,978.5
2,979.9
r2,994.6

10,457
10,477

2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2

2,213.8
2,246.3
2,253.3
2,271.7

321.2
331.3
331.8
340.4

311.1
319.0
318.8
326.8

2,495.7
2,550.8
2,524.7
2,540.7

10,466
10,674
10,537
10,577

2,530.9
2,576.0
2,627.1
2,667.9

2,292.3
2,311.9
2,342.0
2,351.7

347.7
354.0
373.3
362.0

332.3
338.8
357.4
347.0

2,581.2
2,625.8
2,605.5
r2,596.6

10,723
10,886
10,776
rlO,713

2,697.9
2,732.0
2,799.8
r2,822.5

2,372.7
2,408.4
2,448.0
r2,447.4

360.8
373.9
414.5
r404.3

345.4
357.1
391.6
r381.4

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ( u ) , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue.

The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 .

80




FEBRUARY 1987

ItO

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

j Q
Year
and
quarter

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

H J

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

855.7
870.3
873.9
880.3

819.7
832.8
831.7
830.5

1,186.9
1,214.5
1,239.9
1,266.5

1,083.0
1,094.6
1,102.8
1,114.4

659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1

649.3
649.7
658.9
649.9

564.0
597.6
605.8
624.4

564.1
592.7
598.3
615.9

888.2
902.3
907.4
922.6

834.3
841.3
843.8
847.2

1,294.9
1,319.7
1,346.4
1,383.2

1,125.8
1,131.8
1,140.8
1,157.5

650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5

638.2
655.6
643.8
653.2

625.2
648.0
654.3
672.6

615.0
638.1
643.1
658.4

929.7
928.4
932.8
r939.7

860.6
877.3
875.4
r874.9

1,407.4
1,429.8
1,452.4
rl,478.5

1,166.6
1,174.0
1,181.0
rl,191.0

708.3
687.3
675.8
r665.3

684.0
664.7
651.3
r631.7

664.4
672.8
680.3
r687.8

644.1
649.6
651.6
r656.1

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
• •
WSi
Year
and
quarter

D

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

95.5
59.9
64.4
36.7

85.1
57.0
60.6
33.9

693.2
733.3
743.8
763.4

650.2
678.2
681.0
691.5

283.4
315.2
317.2
329.1

271.2
296.3
295.6
303.8

409.8
418.1
426.6
434.3

379.0
381.8
385.4
387.7

25.4
19.1
3.1
-3.1

23.2
17.4
0.7
-5.2

777.3
799.0
829.7
855.6

695.3
708.3
731.8
749.4

333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9

305.8
311.4
329.9
347.2

443.5
458.1
468.8
474.7

389.5
396.9
401.9
402.2

43.8
14.5
-4.5
r-22.5

39.9
15.1
-0.3
r-24.4

836.7
860.8
874.0
r886.5

725.2
742.2
750.4
r770.3

355.7
367.6
369.3
r374.0

320.4
328.9
330.9
r350.5

480.9
493.3
504.7
r512.5

404.8
413.3
419.5
r419.7

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

FEBRUARY 1987




81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

0

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

Year

FOREIGN TRADE

and
quarter

250. Current

255. Constant

252. Current

256. Constant

253. Current

dollars

(1982) dollars

dollars

(1982) dollars

dollars

(Ann.

rate,

(Ann.

bil. dol.)

(Ann.

(Ann. rate,

rate,

NATIONAL INCOME

•Mil

AND ITS COMPONENTS

220. National in-

280. Compen-

come in current

sation of

dollars

employees

257. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

rate,

• •

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

-45.6
-63.2
-60.0
-66.1

-68.6
-87.2
-85.7
-92.7

373.4
382.1
389.2
386.2

361.3
367.0
375.5
375.0

419.0
445.3
449.1
452.2

429.9
454.2
461.2
467.7

2,963.2
3,010.3
3,052.3
3,102.0

2,153.7
2,195.4
2,234.7
2,275.0

-49.4
-77.1
-83.7
-105.3

-78.8
-108.1
-113.8
-132.0

378.4
370.0
362.3
368.2

369.4
361.2
355.8
362.9

427.9
447.1
446.0
473.6

448.2
469.3
469.6
494.8

3,157.0
3,201.4
3,243.4
3,287.3

2,316.3
2,352.1
2,380.9
2,423.6

-93.7
-104.5
-108.9
r-113.6

-125.9
-153.9
-163.3
r-151.1

374.8
363.0
370.8
r380.7

369.2
359.8
371.2
r383.2

468.5
467.5
479.7
r494.3

495.1
513.6
534.5
r534.2

3,340.7
3,376.4
3,396.1
(NA)

2,461.5
2,480.2
2,507.4
r2,542.8

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

^ S

Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'

284. Rental income

286. Corporate

income with IVA

of persons with

profits before tax

and CCAdj'

Q

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued

CCAdj

1

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

(Ann.

(Ann.

SAVING
292. Personal
saving

295. Business
saving

with IVA and
CCAdj1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

rate,

bil. dol.)

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

1984

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

242.5
229.6
234.6
240.7

12.1
8.4
7.1
5.6

262.5
271.7
259.8
265.0

292.5
305.2
316.1
315.7

580.7
568.7
578.2
565.5

489.0
505.0
510.0
520.3

179.2
157.6
172.9
165.0

250.7
255.5
249.3
262.1

6.8
8.1
7.3
8.3

266.4
274.3
296.3
285.6

316.8
311.4
309.7
307.6

573.2
566.8
541.7
524.1

525.6
538.9
560.1
553.5

144.1
183.6
119.6
125.8

265.3
289.1
277.5
r284.9

12.8
16.3
16.2
rl4.8

296.4
293.1
302.0
(NA)

304.9
297.7
292.9
r281.5

583.2
539.7
r517.2
(NA)

562.6
559.9
566.4
(NA)

145.6
153.1
84.1
r73.5

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1

IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

82




FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

^ 9

SAVING-Continued

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

293. Personal
saving rate

298. Government
surplus or deficit

Year
and
quarter

Q

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

-87.5
-93.9
-104.8
-119.9

6.9
6.0
6.4
6.0

64.4
64.5
64.4
64.7

10.6
11.0
11.1
11.5

4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7

2.6
1.6
1.7
1.0

-1.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7

-96.6
-155.6
-138.0
-155.1

5.2
6.5
4.2
4.4

64.7
65.0
65.2
65.3

11.3
11.6
11.4
11.6

4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9

0.6
0.5
0.1
-0.1

-1.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6

-125.1
-173.3
-133.3
(NA)

5.0
5.1
2.8
r2.5

65.0
65.4
66.0
r66.2

11.1
11.0
10.8

4.9
5.2
5.2
5.3

1.1
0.3
-0.1
r-0.5

-2.3
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

rl0.8

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

Q j

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued

Percent of GNP—Continued

Year
and
quarter

265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

Percent of national income

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj1
(Percent)

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
(Percent)

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj1

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

7.7
8.4
8.3
8.6

11.2
11.2
11.2
11.3

72.7
72.9
73.2
73.3

8.2
7.6
7.7
7.8

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2

8.9
9.0
8.5
8.5

9.9
10.1
10.4
10.2

8.5
8.6
9.0
9.3

11.3
11.6
11.6
11.6

73.4
73.5
73.4
73.7

7.9
8.0
7.7
8.0

0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3

8.4
8.6
9.1
8.7

10.0
9.7
9.5
9.4

8.6

11.6
11.8
11.9
12.0

73.7
73.5
73.8
(NA)

7.9
8.6
8.2
(NA)

0.4
0.5
0.5
(NA)

8.9
8.7
8.9
(NA)

9.1
8.8
8.6
(NA)

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

8.8
8.7
8.8

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

FEBRUARY 1987



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Q j
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982 = 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
311. Index

(1982 = 100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

320. Index @

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(2)

322. Index

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised2

Revised 2

1985

3.7

January
February
March

110*2

April
May
June

111.1

July
August
September

111.8

October
November
December

112*8

3.4

316.1
317.4
318.8

0.2
0.4
0.5

3.7
4.0
4.2

306.8
308.8
308.7

0.0
0.7
0.0

1.8
1.6
1.7

3.4

320.1
321.3
322.3

0.3
0.3
0.2

4.1
3.6
2.7

308.6
308.4
309.5

0.0
-0.1
0.4

1.8
0.6
1.2

2.5

322.8
323.5
324.5

0.2
0.2
0.1

2.8
3.2
3.4

309.6
309.7
310.6

0.0
0.0
0.3

1.7
2.9
3.7

3.6

325.5
326.6
327.4

0.4
0.5
0.3

3.7
2.8
1.7

311.2
312.9
315.1

0.2
0.5
0.7

3.6
3.2
2.5

2.1

328.4
327.5
326.0

0.3
-0.3
-0.4

0.4
-0.1
0.1

315.1
314.6
314.4

0.0
-0.2
-0.1

2.5
2.3
1.5

1.2

325.3
326.3
327.9

-0.3
0.2
0.4

-0.5
0.4
1.8

315.1
316.5
317.4

0.2
0.4
0.3

3.3
5.2
6.1

2.3

328.0
328.6
330.2

0.0
0.2
0.3

2.7
2.7
2.2

320.2
322.7
323.9

0.9
0.8
0.4

6.5
6.4
6.3

r2.2

330.5
330.8
331.1

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.5

325.2
326.5
327.2

0.4
0.4
0.2

5.3

333.1

0.7

328.6

0.4

110.0
3.3
110*9
2.5
111*6
3.6
112.6

1986
January
February
March

113*5

April
May
June

114*0

July
August
September

115.0

October
November
December

rll5.2

2.5
113*2
1.8
113*5
3.6
114*2
rO.7

114.8

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q j

330. Index ©

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 ©

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans1 ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 ©

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans'©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 2

Revised2

Revised2

1985
January
February
March

309.5
309.1
308.6

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.3
-0.4

322.9
322.2
322.5

0.0
-0.2
0.1

0.2
0.9
1.1

317.0
316.1
311.7

-1.8
-0.3
-1.4

-8.3
-9.9
-10.3

April
May
June

309.3
309.8
309.2

0.2
0.2
-0.2

-0.3
-1.2
-2.0

323.8
325.3
324.8

0.4
0.5
-0.2

0.9
0.9
-0.1

309.7
307.9
305.8

-0.6
-0.6
-0.7

-8.1
-11.8
-11.6

July
August
September

309.0
307.3
305.5

-0.1
-0.6
-0.6

-0.9
-0.2
0.6

324.4
323.7
322.3

-0.1
-0.2
-0.4

0.2
-0.4
0.2

303.9
296.9
293.0

-0.6
-2.3
-1.3

-5.6
-2.1
-1.4

October
November
December

307.9
309.5
310.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

-0.1
-1.9
-3.4

324.2
324.7
325.1

0.6
0.2
0.1

-0.4
-2.9
-5.1

300.9
304.6
303.7

2.7
1.2
-0.3

-3.3
-6.4
-8.1

January
February
March

308.9
304.4
300.3

-0.4
-1.5
-1.3

-6.2
-6.5
-7.1

323.8
318.9
314.0

-0.4
-1.5
-1.5

-7.6
-7.9
-8.0

298.8
287.3
280.9

-1.6
-3.8
-2.2

-17.6
-16.0
-16.7

April
May
June

298.2
299.2
299.0

-0.7
0.3
-0.1

-7.3
-4.7
r-1.9

311.6
311.6
311.8

-0.8
0.0
0.1

-9.2
-6.8
-3.3

273.2
279.1
277.2

-2.7
2.2
-0.7

-14.2
-6.9
-2.9

July
August
September

297.4
297.2
r297.5

-0.5
-0.1
rO.l

0.1
-0.3
-0.6

308.5
307.9
r308.7

-1.1
-0.2
0.3

-1.5
-1.2
-1.6

276.7
277.2
276.8

-0.2
0.2
-0.1

5.4
-0.6
-2.0

October
November
December

298.3
298.7
298.1

r0.3
0.1
-0.2

2.4

309.3
309.8

3.3

280.5
278.2
274.4

1.3
-0.8
-1.4

4.1

OU-7 . 0

0.2
0.2
-0.2

300.9

0.9

313.6

1.4

282.3

2.9

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1987




85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

H H
Producer price index, intermediate

Producer price index, capital equipment

materials, supplies, and components
Year

332. Index

and
month

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

333. Index

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

percent)

Revised 2

Revised2

Revised2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

320.3
319.1
318.6

0.0
-0.4
-0.2

-0.6
-0.3
-0.8

297.0
298.7
299.3

0.5
0.6
0.2

3.1
2.8
3.5

290.3
290.0
290.0

-0.2
-0.1
0.0

1.5
1.5
0.9

June

319.4
320.1
319.0

0.3
0.2
-0.3

-1.2
-0.8
-0.9

299.4
300.0
300.5

0.0
0.2
0.2

2.5
1.8
0.3

292.0
292.8
292.2

0.7
0.3
-0.2

1.7
1.1
-0.3

July
August
September

318.4
317.8
317.1

-0.2
-0.2
-0.2

-1.3
-1.4
-0.4

300.7
301.4
299.7

0.1
0.2
-0.6

2.0
2.1
2.0

292.8
291.6
289.5

0.2
-0.4
-0.7

-0.3
0.5
2.1

October

317.3
317.8
318.4

0.1
0.2
0.2

-0.3
-2.5
-4.2

302.4
303.2
303.5

0.9
0.3
0.1

1.9
1.6
3.1

291.6
293.6
295.2

0.7
0.7
0.5

0.7
-2.4
-3.4

317.9
313.8
310.3

-0.2
-1.3
-1.1

-6.2
-6.8
-7.3

303.5
303.8
304.3

0.0
0.1
0.2

1.8
1.5
1.7

293.8
288.1
284.5

-0.5
-1.9
-1.2

-6.3
-6.4
-7.0

June

307.3
306.8
306.6

-1.0
-0.2
-0.1

-8.1
-5.8
-2.9

305.1
305.5
306.1

0.3
0.1
0.2

1.9
1.9
2.2

282.3
284.1
284.7

-0.8
0.6
0.2

-8.1
-3.4
-0.5

July
August
September

304.7
304.5
305.7

-0.6
-0.1
0.4

-1.6
-1.3
-1.2

306.3
306.6
307.6

0.1
0.1
0.3

2.5
2.9
2.6

281.7
283.1
283.8

-1.1
0.5
0.2

1.6
0.4
-0.4

October

304.8
304.8
304.8

-0.3
0.0
0.0

1.9

308.9
309.9
310.1

0.4
0.3
0.1

3.0

284.5
284.6
284.2

0.2
0.0
-0.1

3.2

307.6

0.9

310.8

0.2

286.2

0.7

1985
January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1986
January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on \
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
x
2

Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagncultural payrolls1
Year

Current-dollar earnings

and

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings

month

340. Index

(1977 = 100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

spans

(1977 = 100)

Revised

3

2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

Revised

345. Index

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2

341c. Change
over 1-month

3

Revised

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

3

1985

162.7
163.6
163.8

0.0
0.5
0.2

3.5
3.1
3.1

94.4
94.5
94.2

-0.2
0.1
-0.4

0.2
-0.3
-0.4

171.5

164.2
164.4
165.2

0.2
0.2
0.5

2.7
2.3
3.1

94.0
93.9
94.2

-0.1
-0.1
0.3

-1.1
-0.9
0.7

173!3

165.0
165.5
166 4

-0.2
0.3
0 5

2.4
2.9
3 1

93.9
94.1
94 5

-0.3
0.2
0 4

0.0
0.0
0 3

174.7

166.2
166.8
167.7

-0.1
0.4
0.6

2.9
3.3
2.6

94.0
93.9
94.1

-0.5
-0.1
0.1

-0.7
0.7
1.2

176^2

167.3
168.2
168.5

-0.3
0.5
0.2

2.7
2.3
1.7

93.5
94.4
95.0

-0.6
0.9
0.7

2.8
2.9
2.3

177.6

-0.1
0.2
0.3

1.8
1.4
1.3

95.3
95.3
95.2

0.3
-0.1
-0.1

3.1
1.6
-0.2

178.5

June

168.4
168.7
169.2

July
August
September

168.9
169.3
169.6

-0.2
0.3
0.1

1.9
r2.5

95.0
95.1
94.9

-0.2
0.2
-0.2

-0.7
0.0
-0.3

179.6

170.0

0.2
0.5
-0.1

95.0
95.3
95.0

0.1
0.3
-0.2

p-1.1

rl70.8
rl70.6

P170.8

pO.l

p94.4

p-0.6

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

3.9
3.9
4.4
3^8
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.0

1986
January
February
March
April
May

October
November
December

rl.7
P

2.3

3.1
2.8
2.2
r2.6
2.4

r2.7

rl80.8

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing
Changes are centered within the spans:
ter changes are placed on the 1st month of
3
See "New Features and Changes for This
2

FEBRUARY 1987



only) and interindustry employment shifts.
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarthe 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
Issue," page iii.

87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

H 9

Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month

(1977 = 100)

1985

348. Average
first-year
changes ©

Real compensation
346. Index

Revised

2

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised

2

97.9

April
May
June

97*9

July
August
September

98.1

October
November
December

98.0

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,

Output per iour, all persons, business sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370. Index

(1977 = 100)

all persons,
nonfarm business sector

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1977 = 100)

i'j

104^4

6*9

104.9

1.5

105*4

1.0

104'.5

o.'o

105^6

roll

105.7

2

( )

0.5

January
February
March

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

3.6

105*7

3.5

-0.2

106*.4

2.0

3.4

3.0
107.3

r0.4
2.0

-0.3

2.7

3.4

0.2
0.8

0.9

2.7

6". 5

1.4

-3.2
106.4

1A

1986

0.6

1.5

January
February
March

98'.4

April
May
June

99.2

July
August
September

99.*2

October
November
December

99.2

107.3

0.7

3.6

0.5

1.6
107.4

rl.2
0.0

3.3

1.2

i'.2

0.7

1.2

-0.4
105*7

107.3

0.0

P2.7

r-2.8

p2.4

rioif.i

rlO6*6

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

0 1

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force

Year
and
month

441. Total

442. Civilian
employment

Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

(Percent)

452. Females
20 years
and over

(Percent)

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

January
February
March

114,797
114,970
115,316

106,291
106,605
106,965

8,506
8,365
8,351

3,806
3,762
3,728

3,183
3,124
3,148

1,517
1,479
1,475

6,982
6,908
6,797

5,400
5,134
5,423

78.1
78.1
78.1

54.4
54.5
54.7

55.2
55.2
55.2

April
May
June

115,313
115,286
114,926

106,949
106,995
106,541

8,364

8,291
8,385

3,791
3,629
3,847

3,171
3,179
3,136

1,402
1,483
1,402

6,818
6,719

6,811

5,365
5,469
5,276

78.2
78.1
78.1

54.7
54.5
54.5

54.7
55.0
52.4

July
August
September

115,280
115,277
115,844

106,842
107,136
107,602

8,438
8,141
8,242

3,733
3,631
3,660

3,133
3,137
3,182

1,572
1,373
1,400

6,915
6,701
6,718

5,363
5,435
5,310

77.9
78.0
78.2

54.4
54.5
54.8

55.2
53.5
54.1

October
November
December

116,080
116,149
116,333

107,792
107,978
108,149

8,288
8,171
8,184

3,673
3,664
3,617

3,038
3,063
3,073

1,577
1,444
1,494

6,727
6,721
6,668

5,206
5,316
5,292

78.2
78.1
78.0

54.8
54.9
55.1

54.6
54.4
54.4

January
February
March

116,794
117,042
117,187

108,892
108,557
108,807

7,902
8,485
8,380

3,544
3,796
3,789

2,945
3,189
3,131

1,413
1,500
1,460

6,500
6,898
6,879

5,297
5,214
5,295

78.3
78.2
78.2

55.0
55.1
55.1

53.6
54.9
54.9

April
May
June

117,292
117,587
118,005

108,969
109,165
109,613

8,323
8,422
8,392

3,688
3,820
3,808

3,087
3,098
3,082

1,548
1,504
1,502

6,759
6,924
6,798

5,567
5,569
5,322

78.0
78.0
78.1

55.2
55.4
55.7

55.4
55.2
54.8

July
August
September

118,117
118,124
118,272

109,887
110,067
109,987

8,230
8,057
8,285

3,811
3,634
3,805

3,010
2,994
3,015

1,409
1,429
1,465

6,684
6,518
6,739

5,222
5,269
5,303

78.1
77.9
78.0

55.8
55.8
55.7

54.5
54.8
54.8

October
November
December

118,414
118,675
118,586

110,192
110,432
110,637

8,222
8,243
7,949

3,814
3,820
3,725

2,994
2,976
2,865

1,414
1,447
1,359

6,688
6,673
6,465

5,450
5,319
5,342

77.9
78.2
78.3

55.8
55.8
55.6

55.0
54.5
53.8

119,034

111,011

8,023

3,720

2,900

1,402

6,534

5,201

78.3

55.8

54.5

(Thous.)

1985

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.

FEBRUARY 1987




OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

^ |
:

State and local government'

ederal Government

Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q |

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

DEFENSE INDICATORS

Advance measures of defense activity

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

n

1985

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

2

2

( )

( )

January
February
March

-162!2

793.3

955.4

65.6

56l!3

495 .'6

22,492
20,377
20,346

12,449
12,432
10,360

174,180
173,704
174,338

11,061
4,708
6,240

April
May
June

-214.8

755.8

970.6

$9.2

57K9

512!f5

22,655
25,140
29,513

9,658
14,147
11,627

174,867
178,000
179,337

6,130
8,773
11,238

July
August
September

-19^5

792.6

99o!l

59^5

584! 2

524.7

31,641
34,470
30,753

12,163
17,579
11,702

182,074
187,278
186,401

9,594
10,270
8,106

October
November
December

-217.6

805.8

1,023.4

62^5

592^7

530.2

28,629
25,809
30,768

10,584
10,086
14,088

185,059
182,400
183,504

6,179
6,810
7,152

January
February
March

-195!6

806.6

l,OOl!5

69.9

608! 3

53^5

r28,411
r30,247
r30,969

13,424
9,318
14,368

185,822
188,008
190,756

10,350
7,200
10,447

April
May
June

-232^2

813^5

1,045.7

58.9

61l!5

552!<5

r29,758
r30,267
r33,056

12,855
8,849
13,493

188,903
189,004
193,207

6,500
8,430
7,253

July
August
September

-197.4

833.1

1,O3CL5

64.0

629.1

565! i

r31,199
r29,968
r30,678

15,992
13,088
13,413

196,185
198,635
199,295

10,157
8,332
8,838

October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

rl,045.5

(NA)

(NA)

r574.6

r28,383
r30,341
(NA)

p7,549
(NA)

198,408
pl98,337
(NA)

5,001
10,356
r4,376

1986

1987
January
February
March

p6,607

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
2

Based on national income and product accounts.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," pageiii .

90




FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

E

J

DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continue j
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977 = 100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products, book
value

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment, defense
products industries

(Mil. dol.)

(Thous.)

January
February
March

163.2
164.2

577. Military
on active
duty©
(Thous.)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP

(Percent)

n

n

n

1985

Defense Department
personnel

166.0

23,091
23,405
23,489

134,455
132,467
131,990

18,762
20,058
20,465

6,380
6,695
6,718

1,496
1,506
1,514

2,146
2,147
2,148

1,073
1,074
1,076

248.9

6.4

April
May
June

167.1
168.3
169.9

24,006
23,962
24,721

131,769
133,958
137,975

19,597
20,603
20,554

6,352
6,584
7,221

1,521
1,530
1,541

2,148
2,149
2,151

1,081
1,084
1,084

255.1

6*.4

July
August
September

170.8
173.3
174.5

25,317
25,923
26,476

140,742
143,848
144,828

21,498
22,489
21,987

6,827
7,164
7,126

1,549
1,569
1,565

2,156
2,157
2,151

1,091
1,094
1,099

265.5

6.6

October
November
December

174.8
177.2
178.5

26,587
26,598
26,270

143,336
142,288
141,497

20,908
21,847
22,443

7,671
7,858
7,943

1,572
1,581
1,580

2,151
2,153
2,150

1,099
1,098
1,100

268lo

6.6

January
February
March

178.7
176.3
176.2

26,762
26,254
27,080

144,814
144,433
147,801

20,152
21,586
23,342

7,033
7,581
7,079

1,589
1,590
1,589

2,157
2,160
2,160

1,103
1,087
1,084

266.4

6*.4

April
May
June

178.0
178.0
178.4

27,565
27,754
28,117

146,968
147,912
147,201

22,101
22,921
21,954

7,333
7,486
7,964

1,594
1,598
1,576

2,150
2,150
2,143

1,081
1,072
1,060

278.4

6^7

July
August
September

179.5
181.0
182.0

28,149
28,466
29,036

149,275
149,963
151,114

22,538
21,714
23,886

8,083
7,644
7,687

1,605
1,611
1,608

2,150
2,161
2,169

1,059
1,052
1,072

286 '.8

6^8

October
November
December

rl84.6
rl84.9
rl85.3

29,221
29,025
28,153

148,107
149,771

8,008
8,692
r9,184

1,611
rl,613
pi,614

2,177
p2,180
(NA)

1,069
(NA)

rl44,963

22,324
21,168
p22,780

P186.7

(NA)

pl44,159

(NA)

p7,411

(NA)

1986

r280.7

6^

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on |

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,1 page i n

BUI FEBRUARY 1987




91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q

MERCHANDISE TRADE

602. Exports, excluding

604. Exports of domestic

606. Exports of non-

military aid shipments

agricultural products

electrical machinery

612. General imports

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)
x

( )
1985

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

n

(M

n

19,401
17,853
18,446

2,945
2,842
2,436

4,247
3,970
4,160

28,297
27,985
28,129

4,005
3,833
3,411

4,033
4,999
4,243

17,779
17,414
17,438

2,624
2,215
2,218

3,970
4,073
3,952

28,295
28,685
29,425

4,936
5,237
4,842

4,350
4,073
4,932

17,412
17,423
17,732

2,184
2,347
2,080

3,615
3,897
3,777

26,630
26,083
31,764

3,342
3,252
4,041

4,161
4,489
5,555

17,368
17,976
17,024

2,351
2,446
2,426

3,694
3,918
3,730

27,594
30,285
32,888

3,811
4,367
5,079

4,198
5,461
5,758

17,006
17,734
2
18,911

2,320
2,283
2,135

3,854
4,294
3,740

2

32,005
28,895
31,972

4,978
4,254
3,578

5,044
5,378
5,018

April

2

2

June

17,964
17,430
2
19,069

2,043
1,960
1,819

3,981
3,644
3,582

2

May

28,762
30,272
31,764

2,084
2,718
2,731

5,044
5,054
5,535

July

2

17,707
17,601
»17,518

2,062
2,231
2,111

3,585
4,091
3,812

2

34,121
29,476
28,695

2,483
2,225
2,435

6,242
6,280
4,909

*19,328
218,593
2
18,430

2,447
2,204
2,352

3,932
4,138
4,227

230,018
2
36,187
2
27,795

2,155
2,788
2,299

5,790
7,156
5,483

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1986
2

January

2

February
March

2

August
September
October
November

. . . .^. . .

December

2
2

2
2

2
2

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

iSee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
Not seasonally adjusted. See item 7 of "New Features and Changes for This Issue,

92




on page iv of the March 1986 issue.

FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q |

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted

Goods and services
Year
and
month

668. Exports

667. Balance

669. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

620. Imports

618. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

Income on investment

(Mil. dol.)

651. U.S. investment abroad

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

1985
January
February
March

-22,832

88,040

110,872

-25,045

55,324

80,369

18,726

16,507

April
May
June

-25,959

89,350

115,309

-30,367

53,875

84,242

22,253

16,804

July
August
September

-24,454

90,234

114,688

-31,675

52,498

84,173

24,502

16,240

October
November
December

-29,451

90,873

120,324

-37,352

52,727

90,079

24,509

15,254

January
February
March

-31,015

91,593

122,608

-36,459

53,661

90,120

24,216

17,699

April
May
June

-30,334

92,060

122,394

-35,669

55,149

90,818

22,636

17,311

July
August
September

p-32,103

p92,531

pl24,634

p-37,669

p55,318

p92,987

p22,482

pl6,973

October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

FEBRUARY 1987




93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q H
47. United States,
index of industrial production
Year
and
month

721. OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

January
February
March

122.7
123.2
123.4

108
110
111

143.0
143.4
141.9

110
109
110

101
105
107

106
106
108

102.8
111.5
111.7

115.2

April
May
June

123.3
123.6
123.6

110
111
111

144.9
147.4
144.9

110
111
112

104
107
104

109
108
108

107.6
108.5
111.1

116.4
117.6
118.8

July
August
September

123.4
124.4
124.3

111
111
112

147.2
145.5
144.5

114
112
112

107
107
107

107
108
110

107.3
105.8
110.6

118.8
118.7
120.0

October
November
December

123.6
124.8
125.6

112
114
110

144.8
144.2
144.6

116
116
111

107
109
104

109
110
107

106.9
110.9
106.6

119.9
119.3
121.2

January
February
March

126.2
125.3
123.6

112
113
112

144.6
145.2
144.5

113
113
113

104
107
104

109
110
110

108.0
111.0
114.5

120.3
120.3
117.1

April
May
June

124.7
124.2
124.2

115
111
114

144.6
145.1
145.3

117
112
116

110
103
108

111
rlO8
rlO8

116.2
108.5
113.7

120.2
117.7
116.6

July
August
September

124.9
125.1
124.9

115

rll3
114

144.9
141.3
146.3

117
116
114

109
109
109

110
rill
111

110.6
105.6
110.8

118.1
116.3
116.2

October
November
December

125.3
126.0
rl26.4

rll5
pll5
(NA)

143.5
rl41.5
P145.1

rll6
pll6
(NA)

109
plO9
(NA)

110
pllO
(NA)

rll0.4
P112.1
(NA)

117.5
P116.5
(NA)

(1977 = 100)

1985

115.5
116.8

1986

1987
January
February
March

P126.9

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94




FEBRUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q
United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

Japan

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

Revised 2

CONSUMER PRICES
West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

n

1985

United Kingdom

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

n

n

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

n

January
February
March

316.1
317.4
318.8

3.7
4.0
4.2

321.3
318.7
320.2

2.2
1.3
1.4

211.0
211.9
212.6

3.4
3.4
2.4

453.5
455.8
459.0

5.5
5.5
6.0

578.0
582.7
588.1

8.2
8.3
8.5

April
May
June

320.1
321.3
322.3

4.1
3.6
2.7

321.9
323.3
323.5

1.6
1.7
0.9

212.9
213.1
213.3

1.6
0.9
0.2

462.2
464.5
466.4

5.8
5.3
4.7

600.6
603.4
604.7

7.3
6.6
4.7

July
August
September

322.8
323.5
324.5

2.8
3.2
3.4

323.8
320.7
323.8

2.2
2.4
1.7

212.9
212.2
212.6

0.0
0.2
1.1

468.2
468.7
469.2

4.1
3.9
3.3

603.5
605.1
604.8

2.8
2.7
3.1

October
November
December

325.5
326.6
327.4

3.7
2.8
1.7

328.4
325.0
325.2

1.1
1.9
1.0

212.9
213.3
213.5

1.0
0.3
-0.2

470.6
471.5
472.1

2.7
1.7
1.4

605.8
607.9
608.7

4.0
3.6
3.6

January
February
March

328.4
327.5
326.0

0.4
-0.1
0.1

325.8
324.4
323.5

-0.6
-0.2
-0.6

213.8
213.3
212.8

-0.5
-0.8
-1.3

472.6
471.7
472.9

1.6
1.1
1.3

610.0
612.2
613.0

3.2
2.8
2.0

April
May
June

325.3
326.3
327.9

-0.5
0.4
1.8

324.7
326.9
325.2

-0.6
0.4
0.4

212.6
212.6
212.9

-1.8
-1.0
-0.7

474.7
475.6
477.0

1.3
2.3
3.0

619.0
620.1
619.8

1.0
1.1
2.3

July
August
September

328.0
328.6
330.2

2.7
2.7
2.2

324.4
323.8
325.4

-1.0
-0.3
-0.5

211.9
211.4
211.7

-1.1
-1.5
(NA)

477.5
478.0
479.9

2.8
r2.8
(NA)

618.0
619.9
623.0

2.8
4.2
5.7

October
November
December

330.5
330.8
331.1

3.5

325.7
324.1
323.5

(NA)

211.0
210.8
(NA)

623.9
629.2
631.3

(NA)

1986

480.9
481.4
(NA)

1987
January
February
March

333.1

(NA)

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
2

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1987




95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q
Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index©

(1967 = 100)

Canada

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

2

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

STOCK PRICES

19. UnitedStates, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices @

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

2

( )

1985

[ Q

CONSUMER PRICES-Continued

( )

January
February
March

736.8
744.2
749.4

10.7
11.1
10.4

341.3
343.5
344.3

5.3
4.5
4.0

186.7
196.8
195.2

839.5
851.9
900.4

195.1
202.0
213.4

294.3
307.9
317.8

578.1
585.1
592.3

147.2
164.1
165.0

293.2
293.2
295.2

April
May
June

756.1
760.6
764.4

10.0
9.4
8.5

345.7
346.5
348.3

3.4
2.9
3.6

196.5
201.1
205.5

880.3
890.6
915.0

212.5
218.7
234.2

328.9
336.4
337.2

592.0
607.0
591.3

164.4
188.7
199.0

297.8
309.2
306.5

July
August
September

766.7
768.2
771.3

7.5
6.0
7.0

349.5
350.1
350.5

3.1
3.4
4.7

209.4
204.8
200.2

941.6
915.9
915.0

234.8
237.4
253.2

321.9
316.8
312.3

568.4
597.0
605.7

212.9
229.8
246.4

314.0
318.6
297.4

October
November
December

780.6
786.1
791.6

6.2
6.2
6.2

351.7
353.1
354.7

5.2
5.0
4.6

202.5
214.8
225.5

930.9
910.7
933.9

273.6
293.2
294.9

300.4
338.9
356.3

617.4
652.0
644.5

251.1
263.9
285.2

302.2
322.8
327.8

January
February
March

795.6
801.2
804.4

5.8
6.8
5.5

356.3
357.7
358.5

4.5
4.8
2.9

226.5
238.6
252.7

936.5
964.8
1,052.8

327.1
320.8
329.6

383.6
409.9
450.2

647.8
690.0
755.0

303.8
343.9
430.2

321.2
322.7
344.3

April
May
June

806.8
809.9
813.1

5.5
5.7
4.8

359.1
360.7
361.3

3.0
3.5
3.7

258.9
259.4
266.8

1,116.7
1,144.6
1,203.9

345.8
318.7
313.8

517.4
525.9
r457.9

780.6
756.2
764.9

512.3
580.0
485.1

347.9
352.8
348.6

July
August
September

813.1
814.7
817.1

4.0
3.6
3.6

363.9
365.1
365.1

4.4
4.6
5.4

261.3
266.5
259.2

1,262.7
1,354.5
1,361.8

293.2
316.3
327.2

r494.1
r515.6
513.8

755.5
750.0
767.2

483.2
P541.3
p535.5

331.7
342.2
336.6

October
November
December

822.0
825.3
827.8

4.1

366.9
368.9
369.5

4.4

258.2
266.6
270.4

1,280.7
1,297.0
rpl,400.7

r322.0
r325.7
r326.5

rp505.8
rp517.6
rp550.3

P751.1
P774.6
P780.5

P530.6
p517.0
P488.1

343.4
344.3
346.5

287.7
P306.4

rpl,433.7
pi,490.0

rp301.8
P273.1

rp554.4
P562.6

p833.4
P916.2

P324.5
p293.4

378.4
P407.2

1986

1987
January
February
March

832.8

370.3

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
2

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

96




FEBRUARY 1987

APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1986

Series
July
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
1

13. New business incorporations .

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

105.4

86.1

81.5

95.6

105.?

127.0

143.7

102.4

91.0

101.7

93.3

96.7

104.7

104.8

99.9

93.3

107.6

lb. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales,
manufacturing corporations2
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars3

1987

Aug.

99.6

94.2

May

June

93.3

82.9

88.0

107.6

99.0

107.3

97.8

108.8

100.2

99.8

99.7

99.6

99.9

99.9

99.8

99.5

100.6

100.6

100.7

100.4

517. Defense Department gross obligations
incurred1

92.3

85.6

126.9

105.6

105.7

116.3

114.2

89.6

105.8

89.7

80.5

88.3

525. Defense Department prime contract awards

72.8

78.7

186.2

70.1

119.1

99.4

123.4

93.8

114.8

83.0

79.8

81.7

543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligations outstanding

96.6

93.7

96.5

97.5

100.1

101.4

104.1

103.6

103.4

103.1

100.6

98.4

570. Employment, defense products industries . .

100.0

99.4

100.0

100.1

100.2

100.3

100.3

100.1

100.0

99.8

99.7

100.1

578. Defense Department civilian personnel,
direct hire employment

101.7

101.2

98.7

99.2

99.7

99.9

99.4

99.4

99.5

99.5

100.4

101.0

102.2

100.7

97.7

100.9

95.4

104.4

97.1

94.8

103.5

100.7

99.7

100.8

82.6

84.5

90.7

99.5

114.0

109.1

112.4

108.5

112.0

101.6

90.4

84.7

100.9

95.4

98.3

104.8

96.1

97.9

97.8

91.2

111.9

101.7

104.0

103.0

108.3

103.1

111.7

113.1

97.7

106.2

102.9

86.3

84.6

97.8

88.0

111.8

96.5

81.5

95.0

98.6

94.7

95.4

103.7

96.1

109.7

109.3

104.5

109.4

1

580. Defense Department net outlays

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products .
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products1
1

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

. . ..

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series.




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.
37.

May
NUMBER

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

1 , 974
3 ,666

2,211
3,402

1,914
1,707
3,338
3,015
2,679

II Q

1,972
1,839
3,077
3,157
7,666

1 , 957
1 ,636
3,331
2,969
2 ,606

, 81 3
,647
3 ,607
-.918
. , 764

1,811
1,723
3 ,749
3 ,049
2 ,650

1 , 863
1,596
3 ,767
2 ,747
2,861

1 , 88
1 ,60
3,55

1 , 991
1 ,660
3,659

2,087
1,665
3 , 854

1 ,821
3 , 927

2,88

2,952

2,701

2,635

2,571

2,861

2,818
3,196
2,761
2 , 7 90

9 38.

..

3,875

4,303

4,492

5,016

5,021

4 , 94

5 ,07 9

5,025

4,821

4,570

4,188

4,191

9 30 . . .
93 1 . . .
9
933...

3,615
4,67 1
4,081
4,074

4,832
3,871
4,238

4 ,853

4,893
3 , 906
4,055

5 ,003
3 ,863
4,217

4 ,88
3 , 84
3 , 97

4,928
3,819
4,051

4,682
4,013
3,878

4,676
3 , 961
3 , 957

3,572
2,988
2,968

3,510
-.887
- , 889
_ , 877

3,38
2 ,87
2 , 99

3,301
2 ,876
2 , 944

3 , 254
2,900
2 ,945

3,216
2 ,7 98
2,958

3,031
2,912
3,018

2,718
3 20 1
4,986
5,019
4,326

I , 7 1 2

3,595
2,828
2,895
2,709
2,758

3,432
2,950
2,929

9 39. . .

3,730
2,820
2,915
3,001
2,692

4,295
4,024
4,151
3 5 51
3 ,073
2 ,770
3,066

4,177
3 , 907
3 , 975

9D 5 . . .
936 . . .
9

4,573
3,80 3
3 , 987
3 7 26
3 , 143
2,798
3,143

4,223
3,945
3,557
4,785
3 , 958
4,128
3 97 0
3,604
2,898
2 ,924

2,713

2,816

2,'86 8

2,856

3 ,040

3,049

2 ,856

2,884

2 ,707

4 , 903
4 , 928
4,452

4, 987
,038
+ ,394

4,959
4, 959
4,459

4,996
4 , 922
4,329

4,949
4 , 923
4,36 3

7,520
7 ,326
7 , 443
6,318
6,173
6 ,702
8,051
9,705
11,542
8,815
8,365

, 978
,230
,307
, 337
,109
( ,729
, 982
,895
1 ,403
3 , 7 50
3,351

8,210
7,330
7,059
6 , 180
6,069
7,358
7 , 869
10 , 2 4 4
11 , 2 6 8
8 ,749
8,364

8,433
7,053
6,911
6,127
5 , 840
7,984
8,174
10 , 3 3 5
11,152
8 ,456
8,291

8 ,220
7,322
7,134
6 ,028
5,959
8,098
8,098
10,538
11 , 2 4 8
8,21 2
8,385

5,035
4,913
4,305
5 ,063
8,127
7,490
6,829
6,309
5,996
8,363
7 , 863
10,849
10,530
8,486
8,438

5,134
4 , 93 9
4,305
5 ,022
7 , 928
7 ,518
6,925
6 , 0 80
6,320
8 , 281
8,036
10,881
10,599
8 ,493
8,141

5,042
4,849
4,350
5,437
7,923
7 ,380
6,751
6,125
6 , 1 90
8,021
8,230
11,217
10,276
8 ,356
8 ,242

4,954
4,875
4 , 144
5,523
7 ,897
7 ,430
6,763
5,947

5,161
4,602
4,396
6,140
7 ,794
7 ,620
6,815
6,077

8,088
8 , 6 46
11,529
9,877
8 ,372
8,288

8,023
9,029
11,938
9,500
8 ,207
8,171

5,154
4,543
4,489
6,636
7 ,744
7,545
6,386
6,228
6,325
7,718
9 ,267
12,051
9,369
8,385
8,184

4,959
4,995
4,391
4,670
7,666
7 ,363
7,343
6,381
6 130
6,705
8,035
9,666
11,490
8,868
8,407

4,968
4,93 5
4,384
4,750
8,288
7,235
7,035
6,112
5 9 56
7,813
8,047
10 , 3 7 2
11,223
8 ,472
8,347

53,769
5 4 , 7 97
54,028
56 , 263

54,239
54,393
54,423
56 , 6 0 2

54,593
54,048
54,268
57,031

57,983

57,885
59,883
60,156
60,908
62 , 3 0 0
63 , 5 8 4
65,492
67,903
69,823

53 , 3 9 8
55,323
53,938
54,745
57 13 8
58,138
57 , 2 6 8
58,411
59,927
60,305
61 200
62,406
64,103
65 , 8 8 4
68,099

53,645
55,086
5 3 , 7 90
55,332
57,375
58,130
57,159
58,973
6 0 , 6 46
60,487

70
9 71 . . .
9 72 . . .
9 73. . .
97 4 ...
9 75 . . .
9 76 . . .
9 7 ...
97 8...
Q

980
981
982
983
984.
985
986.

. . .
...
. . .
...
. .
. . .
..

7,501
7 ,534
7 ,280
6,489
6,109
6,683
8,071
9,397
11 , 5 2 6
9,038
8,506

, 921

42 .
952. . .
953 . . .
954. . .
955. . .

53 , 3 1 2
5 + , 958
5 ,951
5 + .640

957
958
959
960
961

, 842

58,132

58,387
59,889
6 0 , 3 54

58,255
60,177
60,116
62,372
64,188
65 , 805
68 , 0 5 6

...
...
. . .
. . .
...

963.
964.
965.
966 .

..
. .
..
. .

6 2 , 1 90
63,724
6 5 , 7 26
68,121

968.

53,442
55,421
54,073
54,873

NUMBEF

5. , 4 4 0
5 ,590
5 , 7 91
5 t, 722

OF

PERSONS

ENGAGED IN NONAGRICULTURAL
(THOUSANDS )

53 , 6 1 6
54,832
53 , 7 6 6
56 , 222

53,984
54,708
53,829
56,131

58,194

58,139

58,061

58,393

58,17 1

59,137
60,752
60,77

59,447
60 , 3 6 7
60,455

59,402
60,375
60 , 4 8 6

59,323
60,512
60,520

59,556
60,196
6 0 , 7 16

63 , 0 0
64,662
66,58
6 8 , 80 3

63,211
64,808
67,070
6 8 , 9 40

63 , 3 0 4
64,890
67 , 0 0 7
69,225

63,524
64,959
67,015
69,306

59,050
60,596
60,991
62,016
3 3 ', 5 9 2 63 , 573
35,032
65,239
67,631
37,277
69,895
39,489

72,293

72,376

72 , 2 6 7

72 , 3 0 7

75,017

7 5,209

75,206

72,414
7 4 6 99
75 , 0 4 7

72,483
7 4 92 8
7 5 ,348

72,736
7 5 06 4
75 , 2 7 8

73,032
7 5 3 31
75,214

7 8 , 47 5
81 , 2 7 2
8 3 , 362
81 , B91
8 5 , + 27
8 8 , 322
92 , + 44
95,059
95 , 5 6 3

74,858
75,423
78,681
81 , 6 7
83,555
81 , 9 8 7
85,25 3
8 8 , 6 1 =)
92,860
95,348
95,386

78,769
81,759
83,713
82 , 4 3 7
85,735
88,837
92,649
95,671
95,477

7 8 , 975
81 , 7 7 9
83 , 6 0 8
82 , 805
85,843
89,181
93 , 0 3 0
95,402
95 , 5 9 0

78,975
82,146
83,591
82 , 7 7 1
85,895
89,501
93 , 2 7 0
95,969
95,634

78,982
82 , 563
83,564
82 , 973
85,958
8 9 , 7 80
93 , 7 2 4
96,079
95,945

79,473
82 , 7 2 7
83,221
83 , 125
86,371
9 0 , 3 86
94,201
96,138
96,149

7 9,80 4
82 , 7 4 3
8 2 , 7 83
83,406
86,552
90,785
9 4 , 185
96,533
96 , 142

96,21 2
97,11 2

96,091
97 , 7 3 5

96,225
98,104

96 , 1 1 9
98,67 9

95 , 7 2 6
98,743

95 , 6 0 2
99,442

95,618
99,650

103,711

104,030

104,720

104,923

104,998

53,861
55,082
53,698
55,307

58,441

58,211

57,986

58,590
5 9 , 7 14
6 ,444

58,875
60,488
60,337

58,907
60,698
6 0 , 3 50

6 ,655
6 4 , 3 97
6 ,121
68,119

62,972
64,942
66,209
68,402

62,886
65,028
66,310
6 8,567

71,475

71 , 6 8 6

. .

70,792

71,270

970 . . .

7 3,358

75,259

7

97 2 . . .
973 . . .
974. . .
97 5 . . .
976 . . .
977 . . .
978. . .
97 9 . . .
980 . . .

7 ,593
7 9,705
8 I , 799
. ,226
8 4,013
8 D ,743
9 D , 950
9 4,643
9 3 , 563

7 7 , 7 50
80,497
82,930
81,895
84,368
87,120
91,199
94,956
96,598

78,135
8( , 9 8 3
8 3 ,093
8 , 829
84,689
8 7,596
9 ,404
95,112
9 3,295

75,362
75,413
78,273
81 , 1 5 2
83,087
81 , 8 7 4
84,978
87 , 9 5 8
92,045
94,812
9 5 , 907

982. . .
983 . . .

9 3 ,299
9 5,732

96,387
95 , 7 2 7

9 ,300
95 , 820

96,225
96,230

96 , 6 8 2
96 , 3 2 9

985 . . .
986 . . .

102,97 9

03,269

103 , 6 7 6

103,612

103,719

3,364

43
952. . .
953. . .
954. . .
955. . .
956 . . .
957 . . .
958. . .
959. . .
960 . . .

3 .2
2 .9
4.9

3 . 1
2 .6
5 .2

4.0
4.2
5 .8
3 .0

3.9
3.9
6 .4
5 .9
4.8

5 .4

5 .2

962 . . .
963 . . .
964. . .
96 5. . .
966 . . .
9 67 . . .
9
969. . .

3.8
3 . 7

5.5
5.9

5.6
5.7

4.9
4.0

3.9

5.1
3 .8
3.8

3 .4

97 1 . . .
97 2 . . .
9
974. . .
975. . .
9 76 . . .
9 77 . . .
978. . .
97 9 . . .
980 . . .
981 . . .
982. . .
983. . .
984. . .
985 . . .
986. . .

3 . 9

5.8
3 .
3.
.
.

1
1
9
5

3 . 4
3 .9
3.3
7 . 5
8.6
10.4
8. 1
7 .4

NOTE: These ser

.

53 ,6 9()
55,095
53,63(
55, 538

03,403

UNEMPLOYMENT
(PERCENT)

2 .8
3 .5
5 .3
4.2

5.5
5.5

5 .7
5 .4
5 .0

5.6
5.5
5.1

5 .4
5 .5
5 .1

3.8
3.8

3.7
3 .8
3.4
3 .7
5.4
6 .0
5.5

3.7
4.0
3.4
3 .7
5.5
5.8
5 .6
4.6
6 .0
8.4
7 .7
6 .8
5.8
6.0
7 . 5
7 .9
10 . 4
8.8
7 .3
7.1

5.7
5 .7
4.8
4.1
3.6
3 .9
3.4
3 . 5
5.9
6 .0
5.3

5 .}
5 .4

5.1
5 .5

5 .2
5.6

5 .6
5 .7

5 .5
5 . 9
5 . 1

5 .5
5 .3
5. 2

5 .4
5.6
4.9

3 .8
3.8

3.8
3.8

3.9
3.8

3. 8
3 .9

3.8
3.8

3.4

3.4

3.4

3 .4

3 .5

3.5

3.5

5 .9
5.7

6 .0
5.8

5.9
5.7

5 .9
5.7

5 .9
5 .7

6 .0
5.6

6 . 1
5.6

5 .2
8.1
7 .7
7 .6
6.3
5.9
6.3
7 .4
8.9
10.4
7 .8
7 .3

5.1
8.6
7 .6
7 .4
6.3
5 .8
6.3
7 .4
9.0
10.3
7 .8
7 .2

5 . 1
8.8
7 .7
7 .2
6.1
5.8
6.9
7 .2
9.3
10.2
7 .7
7.3

5 . 1
9.0
7 .4
7 .0
6 .0
5.6
7.5
7 .5
9.4
10.1
7 . 4
7 .2

5 .4
8 .B
7 .D
7 .?
5 .9
5. 7
7 .3
7 .5
9 .6
10.
7 .2
7 .3

5 .5
8.6
7 .8
6 .9
6 .2
5.7
7 .8
7 .2
9.8
9.4
7.4
7 .3

revisions beginning with 198?.




104*558

3 .0
3 . 1
5 .7
4.3
3.9
4.5
6 .7
5 .7
6 . 1

3.4
2 .7
6 .0
4.2

5 . 1
5 . 1

3 .7
6 .7

1,883
1 ,834
3 , 532
2,852
2,750

4,975
3,630
3,889
4,762
3,931
3,962
3 6 58
3,257
2,858

4,316
3,855
4,400
4,348
3,91
4,038
3 6 43
3,082
2,827

2,779
2,921
4 296
5,070
4,900
4,320
5,174
7,993
7,463
6,835
6,171
6,169
8,222
8,043
10,982
10,468
8,445
8 ,274

2,696
2,930
4 855
5,090
4,673
4,343
6,100
7,812
7,532
6,655
6,084
6,286
7,943
8,981
11,839
9,582
8,321
8,214

4,602
3 , 7 40
3 ,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3 7 86
3,366
2,875
2 , 97 5
2,817
2,832
4 093
5,016
4,882
4,365
5,156
7,929
7 ,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312

53,746
54,890
53,672
56,143
57,625
58,198
57,429

54,200
54,413
54,240
56,632
57,914
58,013
57,946

53,749
54,919
53 , 9 0 4
55,722
57,514
58,123
57 , 4 5 0

96 , 3 7 3
96,557

60,418
60,487
62,023
63,346
64,886
67,031
69,157
70,831
72,329
7 4 5 82
7 5,154
76,128
78,906
81,895
83,637
82,671
85,824
89,173
92,983
95,681
95,567
97,137
96,145
98,173

60,316
60,872
62,205
63,583
65,254
67,604
69,736
71,211
72,750
75 1 0 8
7 5 , 2 80
76,833
79,420
82,678
83,189
83,168
86,294
90,317
94,037
96,250
96,079
96,725
95,649
99,278

60,318
60,546
61,759
63 , 0 7 6
64,782
66 , 7 2 6
68,915
70,527
7 2 , 103
7 4 2 96
75,215
75,972
78,669
81 , 5 9 4
83 , 2 7 9
82,438
85,421
88,734
92 , 6 6 1
95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450

103 , 57 8

104,100

104,880

103,971

3,871
4,083
3 83 2
3 ,47 1
2,883
2,939
2,762

71,179
73 4 5 2
75,327
75 372
77 , 8 2 6
80,395
8i , 9 4 1
8 ,983
8 • ,357
8" , 1 5 3
9 , 184
91t , 9 0 4
9t , 4 8 5
96 8 59
9( , 3 2 9
95,760
103,308

62,955
64,877
66,367
68,592
70,303
72,118
73 93 9
75,079
7 5 509
78,476
81 , 3 6 7
83,335
81 , 9 1 7
85,219
88,300
92,450
95 , 0 7 3
95,619

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
3.2
2 .6
5.8
4.0

3 .)
2 .
5 .3

2.9
2 .7
5.9

1,750
2,334
3,421
2,790
2,741

RATE

3 .0
2 . 5
5 .9
4.3
4.3
4.1

2 .9
2 .6
5 .7

2,005
1,715
3,813
2,698
2,763

1,853
1 ,642
3,689
2,832
2 , 7 98
2,722
4,994
3,493
3,652

ACTIVITIES

53 , 6 3 7
55,130
53,421
56 , 0 7 5

54 , 0 4 3
55,152

53,384
55,082

Annual

OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
(THOUSANDS)

952. . .
953. . .
954. . .
955. . .
956 . . .

4,072

IV Q

III Q

4.

3 .1
2 .9
6 .1
3.9

4.1

3

5 . 5

8.4
7 . 8
7 .0

5.9
6 .0
7 .7
7 . 4

9.8
9 .4
7 . 5
7 . 1

5.9
8.4
7 .6
6.8
6 .0
5.9
7 . 5
7 .6
10.1
9.2
7 .3
7 .1

5.1
6 .2
5 .8
6 .1

6 .6
8.3
7 .8
6 .8
5.9
5.9
7 .5
8.3
10 . 8
8.5
7 .2
7.0

3.1
2 .7
5 .3
4.7

3.0
2.6
5.8
4.4

3 .9
6 .3
5.8
5 .1
6 8
5.6
5.8
5.5

4.1
7 .4
5.1
5.2
7 0
5.5
5 .7
5.2

.8

3 .9
3.8

. 5

3.4

3.8
3.8
3.6
3.4

.0

5.9
5.8

5.9
5.7

5.1
8.3
7.7
7 .5
6 .3
5.9
6 .3
7 .4
8.8
10 . 4
7 .9
7 .3

5.2
8.9
7 .6
7.1
6.0
5.7
7.3
7 .4
9.4
10.1
7 .4
7.3

2.7
4.5
.0
• .2

.2
.3
.6
. 5
> . 5
.0
+ .0
.8

3 . 2
2

3 .2
. 8
# 4

.0
.0
_ 2

8.5
10.8
8.3
7 .3
7.0

3.2
2.7
6.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
7.3
5.3
5.5

2.8
3.7
5.3
4.2
4.1
4.9
6.4
5.6
6.3

5.6
5.5
5.0
4.4
3.8
3.8

5.5
5.6
5.0
4.1
3.7
3.9

3.6
5.2
6.0
5.6

3.6
5.8
5.9
5.4

3.5

5.6
8.5
7 .
6 .
6.C
5 ^)
7 .7 . t
9.J
9.
7 .1*

6.6
8.3
7 .8
6 .7
5.9
6 .0
7 .4

5.6
8.5
7 .7
7 .1
6.1
5.8
7.1
7 .6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7 .2

1

'

I

8.2
10.7

8.5
7 .3
7 .0

3 .0
2.9
5.5
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5 .5
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
4.5
3 .8
3.8

5.9
5.6

(FEBRUARY 1987)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug. Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

0.4
0.3
0.8
1 .3
0.8
0 .8
.5

0.5
0.4
0.6
1 .4
0.8
0.8

1.6
1 .5
1 .1
0.8
0 .6
0.6
0 .4
0.5
1.3
1.5
1.1

.2
0 .8
0.6
0.6
0 .4
0.6
1.3

2.9
2.3

2.7
2.2

2.7
2 .1

2.9
2.0

60.

0.4
0 .3
1 .2
1 .3
0.7
0 .8
2.1
1 .5

0 .4
0.3

.4
.1
.7
.5
.4
.1
0 .8

1 .5
1.3
1 .1
0 .8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7

2.6
2.3
2.0
1 .5
1.2
1 .6
2 .0
2.8
3.9
2.5
2.1

2.6
2.1
1.5
1 .3
1 .4
2.1
2 .7
4.2
2.6
2 .1

0.4
0.3
1 .4
1 .1
0.8
0 .8
2 .2

.3
.0
0 .7
0.5
0.5
0 .5
0.7
1 .4
1 .3
0.9
1 .0
2.0
1 .4
1 .2
1 .6
2 .0
3.0
4 .1
2.5
2 .0

0.3
0 .3
1 .4
1 .0
0.8
0 .8
2 .5
1 .4
1 .2

0.3
0.3
1 .5
1 .0
0.8
0 .8
2 .6
1.3
1 .3

0.8
1 .4
1 .3
0.9

0 .4
0.3
0 .9
1 .3
0 .8
0.8
1 .5
1 .9

0 .3
0 .4
1 .5
0 .9
0.9

1 .0
2 .3
1 .4
1 .7
2.0
1 .5
1 .5

1 .0
0.6

1 .1
0 .6

0.8
0.6
0.6

0 .4
0.6
1 .3
1 .5

0.8
1 .5

1 .9
1 .3
1 .1
1 .6
2 .1
3.1
4.0
2.3
2 .0

1 .8
1 .3
1 .2
2 .1
2.1
3.8
3.3
2 .2
2.0

1 .9
1 .3

1 .1
1.9
2 .0
3 .2
3.9
2.3
2 .0

1 .018
1 .327
0.384
0 .491
0 .799
0.749
0.277
0.390
0.563
0 .283
0.461
0.407
0 .461
0.606
1 .076
1 .041
1.011

1.067
1 . 3 90
0.338
0 .530
0 .743
0.771
0.252
0.430
0 .479
0 .288
0 .455
0.431
0 .467
0 .653
1.113
1 .020
1 .075

1 .084
1 .295
0 .325
0 .51
0 .781
0.70
0.21
0 .49
0.485
0 .286
0 .457
0.426
0 .494
0 .646
1 .094
1 .028
1.164

1 .038
1 .362
0.316
0 .607
0.717
0.670
0.219
0 .505
0.483
0 .291
0 .478
0 .402
0.514
0 .702
1 .058
1 .005
1.151

1 .027
1 .296
0 .343
0 .639
0 .702
0.604
0 .229
0 .538
0.450
0 .305
0 .464
0 .426
0 .523
0.721
1 .098
0.984
1 .073

0.987
1.201
0.325
0.678
0.655
0.638
0 .234
0 .540
0 .427
0 .308
0 .46 7
0.433
0 . 569
0.739
1 .096
0.980
1 .125

1.022
0.465
0 .539
0.867
0.750
0 .305
0.344
0.429
0 .633
0.784
0 . 6 86
0.472
0.336
0.214
0 .40 5
0.490

0.939
0.485
0 .562
0.842
0.730
0 .301
0.378
0.424
0 .654
0.761
0.670
0 .477
0.316
0.214
0 .43 5
0.501

0.843
0 .477
0 .561
0.860
0.751
0 .276
0.387
0 .440
0 .662
0.760
0.641
0 .466
0.289
0.217
0 .422
0.502

0.784
0 .480
0 .576
0.834
0 .773
0 .268
0.369
0.459
0 .703
0.760
0.493
0 .446
0.256
0.214
0 .422
0.470

0.714
0 .482
0.593
0.866
0 .752
0 .261
0.396
0.482
0.699
0.785
0.417
0 .429
0.250
0 .232
0 .440
0 .474

0.673
0 .505
0 .598
0.866
0 . 7 19
0 .293
0.390
0.475
0 .726
0.764
0 .422
0 .445
0.240
0.243
0 .486
0.500

0.634
0 .491
0.612
0.891
0.693
0 .307
0.389
0.527
0 .702
0.769
0.420
0 .465
0.228
0.283
0 .484
0 .497

2 .2
2.1
4.0
3.1
2 .1
1 .9

3.0
2 .1
1 .9

0 .954
1 . 143
0.309
0 .673
0 .738
0.618
0.243
0.514
0 .407
0.337
0 .437
0.445
0 .553
0 .777
1 .077
1 .010
1 .194
1.219
0.615
0.487
0 .633
0.871
0.675
0.311
0 .384
0 .524
0 .734
0 .730
0 .420
0 .441
0.213
0.272
0 .448
0 .490

1 .091
0.997
0.303
0.744
0 .745
0 .566
0.271
0.496
0 .398
0.344
0.436
0 .436
0.553
0.814
1.095
0 .996
1 .251
1 .213
0 .581
0.490
0 .650
0.855
0.585
0.312
0 .379
0 .529
0.738
0 .764
0 .453
0.40 5
0.194
0.284
0.459
0 .491

1 . 1 97
0.843
0.325
0.683
0.810
0.512
0.293
0.464
0 .350
0.371
0.446
0 .448
0.551
0 .862
1 .095
0 . 956
1.316
1 .190
0 .525
0.505
0.677
0.912
0 . 533
0.313
0 .384
0 .563
0.805
0 .7 89
0 .467
0.379
0 .1 96
0 .334
0.483
0 .503

2 .4
2.0

54.22

54.67

54.73

54.83

55 . 4 4

55.23
53.55
55.65

54.96
53.89
55.73

54.89
53.82
55.72

56.11
54.28
54.29
55 . 0 4
54.30
54.43
53.90
54.37
54.57
55.30
55.57
55.83

56.18
54.09
54.73
54. 1 9
54.47
54.34
54.07
54.32
54.74
55 .27
55.37
55.88
56 .41
56.53
55 .26
55.96
56 .84
57 .32
55.17
55 .88
56.66
58.07
59 .28
58.98
58.61
57 .33
56 .41
58.40
59.46

55.81
53.9
55 .0
55.2
54.0
54.1
54.2
54.7
54.8
55.4'
55.64
55.95
56.45
56 . 50
55.45
55.95
56 . 8 2
57 . 1 2
55 .09
56 . 0 8
56.87
58.39
59.01
58.62
58.83
57 . 2 2
56.58
58.58
59.41

55.71
54.12
54.97
55.26
54.02
54.36
54.14

55.83
53 . 95
55 . 0 4
55.29
54.42
54.29
54.08

56.05
53.92
55.11
55 . 0 2
54.04
54.06
54.21

55.49
54.10
54.91
54.95
54.18
54.37
54.15

55.58
54.18
54.80
55.21
53 . 8 8
54.46
54.29

55 .45
54 .36
54.86
54.62
54.13
54.30
54.31

55 . 0 6
55.37
55.53
56.27
56.28
56 . 1 5
55.47
56 . 0 2
56.79
57 .17
55.17
56 . 2 3
57 .07
58.53
59 . 0 4
58.38
58.76
57 .47
56 . 5 8
59.00
59.39

54 . 9 8
55.52
55.78
56 . 2 5
56 . 5 4
55.97
55.11

55 . 2 8
5 5 . 52
55.88
56 . 0 9

55.13

54.99
55.67

55.23
55.70
55.99
55 . 9 6

, beginning with 1 9 8 2 .




56 .06

57 . 0 6
57 . 1 1
55.01
55.99
57 . 1 0
58.78
59.16
58.14
58.25
57 . 0 9
57 . 0 4
59.13
59.08

56 . 52
56.09
55 . 4 0
56.06

57 . 0 4
57 . 1 6
55 . 2 4
56 . 2 4

57 . 0 8
58.54
59 .27
58.11
58.41
57 . 0 0
57 . 3 5
59.02
59.19

55 . 6 6
55.94
55.98
56 . 6 5
55.92
55.48
56.21
56 . 8 9
56.99
55.36

56 . 2 3
57 . 2 1
58.66
59 . 0 5
58.06
58.35
57 . 0 3
57 . 5 1
58.81
59.30

55 . 9 2
55.99
56.57
55.74
55.49
56.09
56 . 9 8

56 . 91
55.30
56.11
57 . 2 9
59.30
58.14
57 . 9 2
56.90
57 . 7 0
58.92
59.50

2.5
2 .0

2 .4
1 . 8

1 . 1
2.0
2.1
3.3
3.6
2 .3
2.0

3.1
2 .1
1 .9

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1 .263
0.686
0.376
0.728
0.717
0 .405
0.334
0.453
0 .337
0.409
0.421
0 .423
0.603
0 .93 9
1 .106
0 .970
1 .303
1 .240
0 .492
0 .496
0 .730
0 .853
0 .441
0.332
0 .387
0 .581
0.788
0 .7 53
0 .497
0.366
0.194
0 .357
0.497
0 .524

1.321
0.486
0.410
0.765
0 . 7 14
0.385
0.355
0.505
0 .303
0.413
0.434
0 .464
0.587
0 . 972

1 .042
0 .996

1 .296
1 .187
0 .47 5
0.502
0 .80 6
0 .80 2
0.381
0.338
0.414
0.652
0.788
0 .7 48
0.501
0.350
0 .205
0.384
0.515
0 .527

1 .037
1 .294
0 .386
0.488
0.767
0.751
0 .286
0.395
0 .520
0.290
0 .454
0 .421
0 .462
0 .622
1 .062
1 .031
1 .050
1 .344
0.935
0 .476
0 .554
0.856
0.744
0 .294
0.370
0 .431
0.650
0.768
0 .666
0 .472
0.314
0.215
0 .421
0 .498

1 .050
1 .318
0 .328
0.588
0.735
0.661
0 .222
0.512
0 .473
0.294
0 .466
0.418
0.510
0 .690
1 .083
1 .006
1.129
1 .322
0.724
0 .489
0 . 589
0.855
0 .748
0.274
0.385
0 .472
0.709
0 .770
0 .444
0 .440
0 .249
0.230
0 .449
0 .481

1.011
1.114
0.312
0 .698
0.713
0 .607
0.249
0.517
0 .41 1
0.330
0 .447
0.438
0.558
0.777
1 .089
0.995
1 .190
1 .222
0.610
0.489
0 .632
0.872
0.651
0.310
0.384
0 . 527
0.725
0 . 7 54
0 .431
0.437
0.212
0.280
0 .464
0 .493

1 .260
0.672
0 .370
0.725
0 .747
0 .434
0.327
0.474
0 .330
0.398
0 .434
0.445
0 . 580
0 .924

1 .081
0.974
1.305
1 .206
0 .497
0.501
0.738
0.856
0 .452
0 .328
0.395
0 . 599
0.794
0 .763
0 .488
0.365
0 . 1 98
0.358
0 .498
0.518

1 .089
1 .099
0 .349
0.625
0 .740
0.6 13
0.271
0 .474
0 .433
0.328
0 .450
0.430
0 .528
0 .7 53
1 .07 9
1 .002
1.169
1.273
0.691
0 .489
0 .628
0 .860
0.649
0.301
0.383
0.507
0.719
0.764
0 .507
0.428
0.243
0.271
0 .458
0 .497

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

54.07

56 . 4 5
58.00
59.30
59 . 2 2
58.45
57 . 4 5
56 . 4 1
58.38
59.31

1 .0
0.7

0 .6
0.6

0.5
0 .7

2.5
4.2

RATIO, CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT TO TOTAL POPULATION OF WORKING AGE
(PERCENT)

55 .81
55.93

56 . 4 7
56.50
55 . 4 3
55.72
56.57
57.36
55.29
55.77

1 .1
0 .7

0.8
2 .7
1 .3
1 .3

0.4
0.4
1 .5
0 .9
0 .9
1 .0

1 .0
3 .1

1 .026
1.165
0.435
0 .443
0 .759
0.734
0.330
0.366
0.519
0.299
0 .445
0.424
0 .458
0 .608
0 .996
1 .032
1.065

54.12
56 . 2 7
55.60
54.60
54.50
54.86
54.50
54.12
54.01
54.11
54.53
55.42
55.69
55.51
56 . 1 4
56 . 6 4
55 . 6 3
55.71
56 . 14
57 . 3 2
55.62
55 . 6 7
56 .27
58.00
59.14
59 . 2 3
58.38
57 . 4 6
56 . 4 9
58.06
59.18

0 .4
0.3
1 .3
1 .1
0 .8
0.8
2.3
1 .4
1 .2

2.3
2.0

RATIO, HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING IN NEWSPAPERS TO NUMBER OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
(RATIO)

90.

Annual

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0 .4
0.3
1.6
0.9
0 .8
1 .0
2 .5
1 .3
1 .7
2.1
1 .4
1 .5

0 .3
0.3
1 .6
0.8
0.8
0.8

Q

IQ

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, PERSONS UNEMPLOYED 15 WEEKS AND OVER
(PERCENT )

56 . 6 2
55 .7 8
55.55
56 . 0 5
57 . 2 2
56 .7 8
55.28

56 . 1 0
57 . 4 2
59.20
58.21
58.03
56.67
57 . 6 6
58.96
59.55

54 . 0 0
53 . 9 9
54.09

56.10
54.17
54. 14
56 . 0 6
55.96
54.32
54.51
54.70
54.42
54.30
53.99

55.51
53 . 7 6
54.74
56 . 1 1
55.78
54.01
55.03
55.26
54.15
54.26
54.15

55.23
53.62
55.61
56.13
55.71
54 .07
54.94
55 .06
54.03
54.30
54.22

54 . 53
53.75
55.96
55.92
55.26
54.31
54 .82
54.7 1
54.11
54.10
54.20

55.34
53 . 8 3
55.11
56 . 0 5
55.68
54.18
54 .82
54.93
54.18
54.24
54.14

55.37
55.80
56.15
56 . 2 0
56 . 6 8
55 . 53
55.76
56 . 3 9
57 .31
56 . 0 5
55.29
56 .27
57 . 91

54.61
55.33
55.54
55.74
56 . 3 4
56 . 5 6
55.44
55 . 8 0
56.52
5 7 .33
55.36
55.77
56 . 4 6

54.95
55.45
55.65
56 . 1 6
56 . 4 2
56 . 2 1
55.34
56 . 0 1

55.13
55.62
55.91
56 . 0 2
56.58
55.92
55.46
56.12
56 . 9 7
57 . 0 2
55.30
56.19
57.19

55.26
55.82
56 . 0 4
56 . 0 8
56 . 6 4

54.99
55.55
55.79
56 . 0 0
56 . 5 0
56 . 0 8
55.48
56 . 0 4
56 . 9 2
56 . 9 8
55.26

59.35
58.26
57 . 4 9
56 . 4 7
58.07
59.16
59.64

59 . 2 4
59.14
58.48
57.41
56 . 4 4
58.28
59.32

59 . 0 7

59.21
58.10
58.23
56 . 9 8
57.52
58.92
59.33

59.26
58.25
57 . 8 0
56 .57
57 .90
59.07
59.60

54.7 1
53.85
55.91
55.83
55 . 0 8
54.29
54 . 4 8
54.93
54 . 2 0
54.00
54.21

53 . 98
53.59
56 . 2 4
55.89
55.25
54.29
55.11
54.57

55.19
55.96

55 .97
56 .07
56 . 6 1
55 . 6 6
55.73
56 . 2 1
57 . 3 5
56 . 4 5
55.25
56.24
57 . 7 8

59.22
58.28
57 . 8 7
56 .56
57 . 9 8
59.08
59.60

56 . 8 9

57 . 1 3
55.09
56.10
57 . 0 1

58.9
59 . 2

55 . 6 6
55.68
56 . 2 2
57 . 2 9
56 . 4 3
55.27
56 . 2 0
57 . 7 0

56 .07
57 . 0 9

59.19
58.47
58.28
57 . 0 5
57 . 1 5
58.79
59.38
(FEBRUARY 1987)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

III Q

IV Q

Annual

7 .7
7.7

9.1
7.7

8.4
8.0

11.6
11.3
10.6
16.2
13.0
13.3
16.2
13.7
13.5
13.1
11 .7
9.8
8.7
8.2

13.0
11 . 3

Nov.

Dec.

9.1
7 .2

9 .5
7.9

8.8
8.0

8.8
8.7

8.0
8.0

11.3
10.9
10.4
16.4
13.1
13.9
17 0
13.3
13.3

2 .0
1 .4

3.7
1.9
0.6
0.9
5.7
3.2
3.8
5.4

14.0
10.5
10.4
13.2
14.8
12.1
15.8
15.2

3.4
2.3
11.4
9.1
8.9
8.0
8.1
10 . 5
12.3

13.2
11.4
10.2
8.6
8.3
7.8
8.5
11 . 2
12.4

9.6
11 . 4
16.5

9.7
13.9
15.9

9.8
15.6
15.5

9.9
16.2
15.2

12.6

12.2

11.6

11.1

11.3

10.8

10.7
14.1
13.9
19.3
19.5
16.0

11.2
13.7
15.0
20.3
18.6
15.7

10.5
12 . 4
13.9
16.1
20 . 5
17.4
1 5.4

10 .6
13.5

Oct.

IQ

ll Q

91 . AVERAGE DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN WEEKS1
(WEEKS)
952 . . .
953. . .

9
9

3
3

8.8
8.4

8 .4
8.5

9 .0
7 .8

7 .8
7 .9

7 .3
8 .2

7.5
7.9

7.6
8.0

955 . . .
956 . . .
957 . . .
958. . .
959. . .
960 . . .
961 . . .
962 . . .
963 . . .
964. . .
965. . .
966 . . .
967 . . .
968. . .
969. . .
970 . . .
97 1 . . .
97 2 . . .
973 . . .
974. . .
975. . .
976 . . .

13

4
7
4
5
3
5
7
3
8
5
2
9
3
4
1
9
5
1
0

14.2
12.5
10.7
11.0
15.5
13.1
13.6
16.0
14.1
13.2
12.6
11.2
9.2
8.7
7.9
8.0
10.4
12.4
10.5

13.4
1 1 .6
10.8
11.2
15.3
13.0

14.3
11 .0
10.6
12.1
14.9
12.6
15.5
14.9
14.5
12.4
11.4
10.8

14.4
10.4
10.4
13.1

13.4
10.1
10.2
14.4

13.8
10.5
10.1
14.6

12.3
12.0
10.5
15.7

1 1 .7
11.8
9.8
16.5

11.5
1 1 .6
11.1

11 . 9

11.9

12.6

12.2

12.9

13.5

15.5
14.5

15.1
14.0

14.6
14.0

14.5
13.9

14.1
14.2

14.1

1 1 .6

8.6

8.6

10.9
12.4
10 .0

11.2
12.3
10.1

11 .6
12.4
9.6

10
16

7
6

11.7
16.3

11 . 8
16.5

12.9
1 5.9

13.4
1 5.0

15.3
16.9

15.0
15.7

11.9
9.8
8.9
8.3
7.9
8.8
11.5
11.8
9.8
3
15.
15.

12.1
10.3

8.2

11.6
9.7
8.3
8.4
7.8
8.9
11.5
11.8
9.6

11 . 9
10.1
8 .4

7 .9

11.1
10.2
8 .7
8 .2
7 .9

8 .0
8. 9
11 . 9
12.1
9.4
9.6
16.1
15.2

12.6
11 .7
10 . 2
9.9
1 5.4
15.2

978. . .
97 9 . . .
980 . . .
981 . . .
982 . . .
983 . . .
984. . .
985 . . .
986 . . .

12

9
1
4

12.5
11.2
10.6

12.3
11.0
11.4

12.1
11.1
10.9

12.1
10 .4
11 .3

12.0
10.3
11.8

11.
10.
12.

11 . 4
10.5
12.9

4

14.1

12.4
11.7
1 1 .0
14.0
14.1
19.4
19.1
16.2

14.5
19.5
18.9
16.4

14.9
20 . 5
18.9
15.3

15.7
20 . 9
18.1
1 5.5

15.4

16.

21

.2

2 0 .

1 5 . 5

1 5 .

11
10
10
16
13
13
1 5
13
13
12
11
9
9
8
7
10

12
11

1 1
10
14
13
1 9
20
1 5

5
9

1 5 .0
14.5
13.5
1 2 .0
11.1
8 .9
8 .5
7 .9
8 .3
10 .6
12.3
10.6

19.0
15.9

114.

952. . .
953 . . .
954. . .
956 . . .
957 . . .
958. . .
959. . .
960 . . .
961 . . .
962 . . .
963 . . .
964. . .
96 5 . . .
966 . . .
9
938...
93 9...
9 70 . . .
97 1 . . .
9

73 . . .
9 74. . .
9 75. . .
9 76 . . .
9 77 . . .
78. . .
9 80

...

1982 . . .
983 . . .
984. . .
985. . .
986 . . .

8.8
8.7

1.57
2.02
0.98

1.66
2.08
1 .05

1.62
2.18
1 .01

1.7 1
2.20
0.78

1 .70
2.23
0.65

1.82
2.10
0 .7 1

1.88
2.09
0.89

.46
1

2.37
3.16
1 .56
2.71
3 . 95
2 .41
2.7 5
2 .92
3 . 53
3 .93

2.31
3.14
1 .35
2.85
3 .44
2 .42
2.72
2.90
3.55
3 .94

2.61
3.11
1.13
2.96
3.24
2.33
2.74
2.91
3 .48
3 . 93

2.65
3 .04
1 .05
2 .85
3.39
2.29
2.69
2.92
3 .48
3 . 90

2.53
3 .32
0 .88
3.25
2.64
2 .36
2.72
3.00
3.48
3 .81

2 .33
3.1 6
0 .96
3 .2 4
2 . 40
2 .27
2 .94
3.1 4
3.4 8
3.8 3

2.61
3.40
1.69
3.36
2.29
2.40

. .60
4

+ .44
- 0
.- 5
1

3 . 53
3 .83
+ .60
6
3 . C8
8
1

4.55
4.97
6.16
7.16

5.14
6.08
6.7 1

5.36
6.15
6 .48

5.62
6.08
7.04

5.54
6 .49
6.74

3 .40
3.31
_ 6
+9

3.18
5 . 56
7 .06
5.58
4.85
4.66
6 .46

3.72
6.05
7.99
5.54
5.05
4.61
6.32

3.72
6.29
8.23
5.69
4.88
4.54
6.31

3.65
6.35
8 .43
5.32
5.18
4.94
6 .43

3.87
7.19
8.14
5.19
5 .44
5.00
6.71

15.53

1 4.00
13.63
12.82
8.25
9.69
8 .00

9.15
16.30
12.15
8.19
9 .90
7 . 56

7 .00
14.56
12.11
8.82
9.94
7 .01

+ .

)6
0
+5

1 2 .04

12

.81

1 I . +1
1 . 31
8 . )3
7 . 6

13 . 7 8
8.13
9.03
8.22

12.49
8 .30
9 .44
8 .57

6

2.84
3.32
3.51
3.84
4 . 93

5.3 8
7.00
6.50

7.01
6.4

5.10

8.02
7 .7 5
6 . 16
5.2 8
5.1 5
7
6
8. 1 3

6 .46
5.15
5.50
7 .04
9.45
9.26

11.9 1
9 .1 2
10 . 1 3
7.05

9.01
9.39
10.49
7 . 8

8.67

8.74

YIELD ON LONG- TERM TREASURY BONDS
PERCENT )

16.5

8.7
8.4

8.2

7 .6

11 . 7
9.7
8.9
8.1
8.0
9.3
12 .0

0.4
5.7
3.1
2 .4
3 .6
3.3

11.4
9.5
8.6
8.2
8.0

11 . 4
9.9
9.6
16.6
15.3

9 .8
11 . 5
11 . 4
9.5
10.1
16.5
15.1

11 .7
10.5
13.1

11 . 1
10 .6
13.6

10.6
10 . 8
13.7

16.6
20.2

17 . 2
20.2

17.1
19.7

18.1
19.2

15.3

15.3

BILLS

•2 1

8.7

15.2

1 .86
1 .43
0 .95
2.22
3 .00

1.79
1 .88
1 .01
2.09
2.85
3.58
2 .48
4.00
2.49
2.30
2.79
3.38
3.53
3.91
5 .36

0 .99
2.26
2 .96
3.59
2.79
4.12
2 .43
2.35
2.75
3.45
3.58
5.39

5 .34

2.13
1 .63
1.17
2.56
3 .23
3.10
2 .81
4.57
2 .27
2.62
2.86
3.52
3.86
4.36
5 .01

5.20
7.13
6.24

5.33
7 .04
5.93

4.49

5.49
7.19
5.29
4.19

5 .01
5 .92
7 .72
4.86
4.02

8.48
8.36
6.38
5 .08

7.16
7 .24
6 .08
4.93

7.87
7.58
5.47
4.81

7 .84

8.13
1 1 .47
11 .58

8.79
11 .87
13.89

7 .08

7.75
8.71
9 . 97
7.17

10.18
10.32

8.20
9.05
10.41

1 .78
1 .40

7.93
8.7 9
8.97
7.15

3.92

3 . 93

3.97

3.97

4.00

3 .70
4.12
3 .93
3.98
3.87
4.11

3 .2
3.9

9

3.76
4.11
3 . 91
3.98
3.89
4.07

3 .80
4.27
3 .88
4.06
3.87

3 .

3.75
4.26
3 .84
4.02
3.94
4.04

4.14

3.91

4.

4

4.16

4.15

4.15

4.14

4. 1

4.15

4.19

4.25

4.28

4.34

5 .

8
4
36

5.16
5.86
6.44

5.39
6.05
6.39

5 .28
5.84
6 . 53

5 .40
5.85
6 . 94

5 .2
6.0 5

5.09
6.07
6.57

5 .04
6.02
6.75

5. 2
5 . )6
6. 6
6 .( 8
)3
6 .( 8
7 . 3l
8 . +3

5.67
6.14
6.54
6.66
6.92
7.16
7.60
8.43

5 .66
6 .20
6.81
6.77

5.59
6.53
7.18
6.89

5.59
6.85
7.33
7.11

5.44
5.36
6 .52
6.24
5.48
5.51
6 .30
6 .93
7.21

1 1.55
12.23
13.63
1 0.60
1 1 .44
1 1 .35

5.64
6.25
7.09
7.01
7 .01
7 .17
7 .87
8.55
9 .82
12.96
12 .67
10.21
12.89
10.96

6.98
8.10
8.35
9.83
13.05
12.97
11 . 1 0
12.82
10.51

7 .01
7.88
8.42
10.53
13.61
12.15
11 . 4 2
12.23
10.59

6 .94
7 .82
8.6 8
1 0 .94
1 4.14
1 1 .48
1 1 .26
1 1 .97
1 0.67

5.19
5.24
6 .27
6.59
5.46
5.69
6.25
7 .22
7.29
6.65
7.08
8.07

10 . )3
1 1 . 5
13.
3
7
10.
11 . 9
11 . 5

5.74
6.11
7.04
7.05
6.73
7 .13
7.74
8.44
10 . 8 3
12.62
12.84
10.19
12.17
11 . 4 2

4.99
5.09
6.32
6.63
5.56
5.70
6.41
7 .30
7 .28

4.43
4.65
5.36
5.66
6 .81
5.97
5.62
5.63
6.35
6.77
7 .17

7.16
8.16
9 .80
11 . 8 3
12.68
10.18
11 . 3 2
11 . 2 5
10 . 0 8

7 .24
8.36
9.58
11.89
12.88
10.33
11.44
11.21
9.60

5.05
4.24
8.39
8.28
6.33
5.17
5.47
7 .32
9.63

3 .50
3.69

4.16
5 25
4.79
5.58
7 .32

3.55
3.95
4 88
4.33
5.34
6.69
6.44

4.34
4.07
7.03
7 .87
5.82
5.00
5 .26
7 .22
10 . 0 4
11.61
10.72
8.62
9 .57

7.49

9.44
1 1 .20
14.13
10.51
11.21
11 . 6 6
10.56

FOR

PERIOD

2.61
3.07
2.52
2 .82
2.99

2 .67
3.01
2 .49
2 .93
3.13

2.73
2.83
2 .57
2.89
3 .30

2.68
2.94
2 .55
2 .84
3.08

3.15
4.06
4.11

3 .57
4.16
3.83

3.80

3.97

3.75
4.17
3.91
4.01

3 .43
4.08
4.02
3 .90

3.98

4.01

4.11

4.15
4.56
4.44
5.24
5.88
6.56
5.82
5.65
6.10
6.64
6.70
6.91
7.01
7.58
8.44
11.15
12.01
13.45

4.14
4.58
4.71
5.30
5.91
6 .82
5.88
5.66
6.23
7.05
6 .97
6.89
7 .10
7.85
8.44
10.02
12.66
12.94

4.20
4.78
4.93
5.07

4.35
4.70
5.33
6 .53
6.27

10 . 4 4

10.35

11.54
11 . 4 3

12.69
10.91

6.14
6 .65
5.75
5.63
6 .60
7 .27
7.09
6.79
6 .98
7 .93
8.48
10.43
13.60
12 . 2 0
11 . 2 6
12.34
10.59

4.00
4.15
4.21
4.65
4.85
5.26
6.12
6.58

2
+
5
?

4.2 Z
3.83

5.42

5.61
6.30
6.97
7 .22
6.55
7.16
8.20
9.61
11.64
13.23
10 . 3 4
11 . 3 2
11.37
10.08

5.64
6.31
6.98
7.00
6.78
7 .06
7 .89
8.74
10.81
12.87
12 . 2 3

10.84
11 . 9 9
10.75

(FEBRUARY 1987)
isions beginning with 1982.




3.53
2.39
2.32
2 .86
3.28
3.51
3.86
5 0 5
4.35
5.23
7.05
6.38

AVEF AGE

3.60
4.10
3.7 9
4.00
3 .98
3.99

NOTE: Unless <

1 .71

(u)

3.36
4.11
3.86
3.90
4.02
4.01

9.40
12.39
13.32
10.64
13 . 0 0
10.36

2.38
2.78
3.16

9.71
9.19
10.34
7.10

3 .20
4.09
3 . 98
3.88

8.3

2 .48
2.80

9.24

3.14
4.08
4.16
3.73

7 .9

1 .84
3 .41
2.95

12.36
8.42
9 .84
7.52

3.12
4.01
4.18
3.80

6.9 9

2.66
3.26

2.79
4.30
2.36

10.05

3.25
3 .92
4.08
3.78

7 .20
7 .63
8 .45
11.87
12.15
12.98
10.34
1 1 . 90
11 . 7 8

3.06

3.34

12.89
8.08
9.13
8.18

3.28
3.92
4.22
3.81

5.5

1 .77
1 .94
0.95

13.46

9.12

1
7
9

6 .3
7 .0
6 .8

1 .92
1.49
1 .04

1 .83

8.01
8.96
8.16
7.07

4.35

2.78
2.85

6 .9

2.02
0.87

8.04
8.71
8.79
7.20

5.50

2 .7
2 .8
2.6
2 .7
2.8

6 .

13.2
17.5
19.7
16.8
15.4

11.9
10 . 8
11 .9
13.7
15.6
20 .0
18.2
15.6

12.07
15.66

7.36
7.18

2.75
2.79
2.59
2.91
3.40

5.

10.0
9.8
14.2
15.8

5.36
4.23
4.85
7.46
7 .33
5.68
4.70
6.14
8.68
11.80
13 .7 1

2.7 1
2.86
2.57
2.89
3.30

..

11 . 5
9.9

2.60
3.38

2.74
2 .83
2.54
2.87
3.20

963.

7 .8
8.6
11.3
12.0

9.3
12 . 0

2.60
3.16
1.02
3.02
3.09
2.33
2.72
2.94
3.48
3.88
4 60
3 .66
5.51
6.24
6.7 5
4.21
3.75
6.61
8.27
5.40
5.17
4.83
6.48
9.37

2.71
2 .98
2.52
2.92
3.21

3 .: 4

8.4

7.9

2.38
3.17
1.84
2.80
3.94
2.38
2.74
2.91
3.54
3.90
4 63
4.53
5.06
6.14
7 .26
3.86
3.43
5.64
7.60
5.87
4.95
4.62
6.41
9.36

3.34
2 .76
4.21
2.38
2.46
2.80
3.52
3.62

2.70
3 .02
2.48
2.95
3.17

3.
4.:
3.

14.4
12.8
15.6
14.7
14.0
13.3
11.8
10 . 4
8.7

1.68
2.20

2.61
3 .02
2.47
2.91
3.00

2
2
2.68
2.88

7 .9
8.9
11 .6
11 . 9

10.5
13.9

0.81

2.61
3.13
2.55
2.82
2.93

2.71
2.83
2.62

10.1
15.6
13.9
12 .6
16.8
14.4
14.0
13.5
11 . 8
9.9
8 .5
8 .3

1.08

2.57
3.11
2.54
2.81
2.97

4
A0
.6 9

1 1 .4

1.64
2.05

2.64
2 .97
2.48
2.82
3.07

2."

12.6

®

2.70
2.89
2.53
2.7 8
2.93

..
. . .
. .
..
. . .
...
. .
. . .
. . .
...

100

TREASURY

.69
.04

952.
953
954.
955.
956
957
958.
959
960
961

1972 . . .
9 73 . . .
97 4 ...
1 97 5 . . .
19 7 6 . . .
97 7 . . .
1 97 8 . . .
1 97 9 . . .
1980 . . .
1981...
982. . .
1983 . . .
1984. . .
985. . .
1 986 . . .

7 .9
7 .7

DISCOUNT RATE ON NEW ISSUES OF 91 - D A Y
(PERCENT

1 1 5.

965.. .
966. . .
967 . . .
968. . .
96 9 . . .
970 . . .

9.7
8.3

8.1

7 .1

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
116.

3.08
3 . 17
3.00
2. 99
3.20
4.28
3.62
4.58
5.34
4.63
4.56
4.22
4.50
4.93
5.53
6 .57
7.29
9.00
7.63
7.36
7.61
8.32
9.17
8 .97
7.96
8.70
9.47
11.65
14.01
16.34
12.04
12.65
12 .46

26
3.09
3.07
4.13
3.73
4.60
5.24
4.43
4.53
4.25
4.39
5.09
5.35
6 .57
7.33
8.84
7.54
7.57
7.67
8.21
8.84
8.71
8.18
8.70
9.52
13.23
14.60
16 .35
12.11
12 .80
12.39

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug. Sept,

YIELD ON NEW ISSUES OF HIGH-GRADE CORPORATE BONDS
(PERCENT)

Nov.

Dec.

3.08
3 .46
2.94
3.41
4.02

3.14
3 .60
3.01
3.27
3.96

3.16
3.09
2.84
3.15
3.94

3 .07
3.13
2.94
3.17
4.29

3 .04
3 .2

3.61
5 .00
4.91
4.82

3.85
4.95
4.7 9
4.81

4.39
4.90
4.65
4.79

4.56

4.48
5.37
4.75
4.60

.35
. 14

4.36
4.48

4.32
4.50

4.34
4.44

4.34
4.44

5.55
5 .90
7 .00
7.62
9.53
8.25
7 .61
7.69
9.39
9.76
9.00
8.38
9.00
9.82
11 . 6 1
15.68
15.37
11.24
14.41
11.85

5.67
6 .06
7 .02
8.04
9.70
8.15
7 .63
7.73
9.59
9.27
8.90
8.08
9.15
9.51
11 . 1 2
14.97
15.96
11 .90
14.49
11 . 3 3

5.81
6 .06
6 . 91
8.06
9.09
8.24
7.72
7.97
10.18
9.56
8.76
8.12
9.27
9.47
11 . 4 8
15.67
15.75
12 .46
14.25
11.28

3.09
3.53
2.88
3.11
3.55

3 .25
3 . 80
2.90
3.15
3.48
3.66
4.92
4.95
4.67

4.45

3.67
4.60
4.97
4.57
4.37
4.35
4.48

5.33
5.55
6 .80
7.76
9.00
7 .62
7 .53
7.75
8.60
9.48
8.73
8.33
8.70
9.65
14.08
14.49
15.72
11.81
13 . 3 6
12 . 8 5

5.38
5 .59
6.79
7.54
9.09
7.76
7 .77
7 .70
9.04
9.81
8.68
8.30
8.88
9.69
13.36
15.00
15.62
11.58
13.64
12 . 4 5

IQ

II Q

4.;

4.37
4.49
6 .04
6 .53
6 .88
8.46
9.14
7 .72
7 .66
7.97
10.29
9.54
8.25
8.21
9 . 14
11.17
13.17
I 6 .96
12.63
12.54
13.02
II .51

4.4

3 .2
4.2

3.05
3.28
2.87
3.07
3.17

3.14
3.72
2.90
3.12
3.53

3.11
3.55
2.96
3.27
3.85

4.4
5 .27
4.94
4.58

3.74
4.57
5.19
4.48

3.65
4.84
4.94
4.69

4.27
5.04
4.69
4.77

4.49
4.49

4.25
4.45

4.34
4.4

4.36

5.98

6.11
6 .87
7 .00
8.94
8.97
7 .67
7 .46
7.95
9.22
9.48
8.17
8.26
9.30
11.52
14.10
I 5.53
II .89
12.86

7 .28
9.22
8.13
7 .54
7 . 50
8.09
9.47
9.59
7 . 90
8.39
9.30
11 . 3 0
14.38
15.55
12.1 5
12.87

5.12
5.48
6.6 5
7 .46
8.95
7 .60
7 .49
7.68
8.38
9.16
8.80
8 . 16
8.70
9.55
12.99
14.37
16.14
11.99

11.17

10.42

12.57

5 .8
6 .9
7 .73
9.44
8.05
7 .67
7.7 1
9.34
9.61
8.86
8.25
9.01
9.67
12.03
15.22
15.65
11.57
14.18
11.88

61 , 960
62,948

62,099
62 , 8 6 7

4,476

12.31
16.34
14.64
12 . 8 9
13.54
11.61

6.14
6 .33
6.69
8.36
9 .00
7 .90
7.72
8.10
10.44
9.89
8.37
8.11
8.7 8
9.87
12.74
16.97
13.78
12.68
13.37
11.66

61,877
62,816

62,457
62,727

61,971
62,867

62,491
62,949

62,621
62,795

62,191
63,539

65,581
66,673
66,706
68,037

65,628
66,714
67,064
68,002

65,821
66,546
67 , 0 6 6
68,045

66,037
66,657
67,123
67,658

66,445
66,700
67,398
67,740

66 , 7 4 0
67 , 1 7 3

39

69,841
70 , 534
70,981
1 ,786
3,118

70,151
70,217
71 , 153
2,131

69,884
70,492
70,917
72,281
73,308

70,439

70,395
70 ,077
70,854
72,188
73,465

8,770
0,523
0,337
1,277
2,584

9,713
0,532
0,448
1,7 18
3,234

6.04
6 .30
6 . 54
8.05
9.08
8.14
7.59
8.45
10.30
9.71
8.59

8.06
8.83
9.57

III Q

IV Q

6 .93

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
(THOUSANDS)

5.5:

6 .23
6.7 1
8.16
9.06
8.09
7.68
8.17
10.31
9.72
8.57
8.10
8 .96
9 .64
12.18
16.33
14.72
12.68
13.72
11.52

4.57

4.43
4 .49
4.79
6.04
6.78
7.05
8.87
8.75
7 .64
7 .54
8.00
9 .66
9.54
8.11
8.29
9.25
11.33
13.88
16.01
12.22
12.76
12.63
11.03

62,419
63,520
63,994
63 , 6 9 6

61 , 7 2 1
63,657
63,793
63,882

61,720
63,167
63,934
64,564

62,058
62,615
63,675
64,381

62,103
63,063
63,343
64,482

61 , 9 6 2
63,057
63 , 3 0 2
65,145

66,879
67 , 2 0 1
67 , 6 4 9
68,949
70,420
70 , 4 0 9
71,262
72,683
73,857
74,954

66,913
67,223
68,068
68,399
70,703
70,414
71,423
72,713
73,949

66,647
67,647
68,339
69,579
70,267
70,278
71,697
73 , 2 7 4
74,228

66,695
67,895
68,178

71 , 8 3 2
73 ,3<

67,052
67 , 6 7 4
68,278
69,934
70 , 8 7 8
70,514
71 ,626
73 , 0 3 2

67,336
67 , 8 2 4
68,539
69,745
70 , 5 3 6
70,302
71 ,956
73,007

77,578
79,523
81,981
83,850
85,978
87,487
91,199
93,128
94,934
97,208
100,873
104,057
106,562
108,026
109,089
110 , 6 9 4
112,237
114,797

78,230
80,019
82,151
83,603
86,036
88,364

78,256
80,079
82,498
83,575
86,611
88,846

78,270
80,281
82,727
83,946

78,847
80,125
82,483
84,135

79,120
80,696
82,484
83,706

78,970
80,827
82,901
84,340

78,811
81 , 1 0 6
82,880
84,673

78,858
81 , 2 9 0
82,954
84,731

4.34
4.47
4.61
5.67
6.08
6 .84
8.06

9.42
9.51
8.59
8.20
8.98
10 . 0 5
12.77
15.48
14.68
12.25
13.37
11.75

92,776
94,998
97,785
100,837
104,502
106,697
108,242
109,467
110 , 6 5 4
112,671
114,970

93,165
95,215
98,115
101,092
104,589
106,442
108,553
109,567
110,592
112,714
115,316

89,548
91,868
93,575
93,884
93,399
95,847
95,885
95,746
98,665
99,093
98,330
101 , 5 7 4 1 0 1 , 8 9 6 102 , 3 7 1
104,172 104,171 104,638
1 0 6 , 5 9 1 1 0 6 , 9 2 9 106 , 7 8 0
108,925 109,222 108,396
1 0 9 , 8 2 0 1 1 0 , 4 5 1 110 , 0 8 1
1 1 0 , 8 4 1 1 1 0 , 8 2 3 111 , 8 2 1
113 , 123 1 1 3 , 6 7 5 1 1 3 , 7 5 7
115,313 115,286 114,926

89,604
92,212
94,021
96,583
98,913
102 , 3 9 9
105,002
107,159
108,556
110,342
111 , 7 4 6
1 1 3 , 932
115,280

89,509
92,059
94,162
96,741
99,366
102 , 5 1 1
105,096
107 , 1 0 5
108,725
110,514
112,196
113,657
115,277

89,838
92,488
94,202
96,553
102,795
105 , 5 3 0
107,098

60,460
61 , 6 0 0
60,024
60,753

60,462
61,884
60 , 6 6 3

59,908
62,010
60,186

59,971
61,397
59,643

59,790
61,151
59,853

63,632
63 , 2 2 0
63,868
65,347
65,776
66,108
67,072
68,327
69,997
72,198
73,671
74,700
76,805
7 8,7 80
78,864
80,959
83 , 161
86,555

64,257
62 , 8 9 8
63,684
65,620
65,588
66,538
67 , 0 2 4
68,751
70,127
72,134
73,606
75,229

3,290

70 , 3 7 6
70,87 1
2,418
3,286

62,361
62,870

62,138
63,015

65,451

66,101

65,023

67,035
67 , 9 5 4
505
69,912

70,429
0,812
1,958
3,138

67,196
67,814
68,783
70,239
70,315
70,881
72 , 2 9 6
73,353

66,929
67,639
68,369
69,628
70,459
70,614
71 , 8 3 3
73,091

82,912
84,581
87,351
89,650
92,253
9 4 , 128
96 , 6 2 6
99,244
102,568
105,209
107,121
108,525
110, 526
112,081
113,804
115,467

79,195
81,505
83,498
85,318
87,67 5
90 , 5 7 9
92,688
94,309
97,102
100 , 2 9 4
103,484
105 , 9 2 3
107,442
109,057
110,959
112,165
114,259
116,187

483
8 , 7 46

84,872

85,458

85,625

90,131
92,518

90,716
92,766

9 0 , 8 90
92,780

82,210
83,676
208

88,977

3.10
3.42
2.90
3.17
3.68
4.45
4.02
4.93
4.92
4.63

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

62,432
63 , 4 3 9
63,101
63,910
66,419
66,428
67,095
67,936
68,962
70,447
70,189
7 1,146
72,356
73,569
7 5,186

89,018

Annual

A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD

3.11
3.59
2.94
3.14
3.56

3.14
3.41
2.74
3.14
3.25

441.

Oct.

©

110,721
112,300
113,824
115,844

96,704
99,815
103,080
105 , 7 0 0
107,405
109,024
110,744
111 ,926
114,018
116 , 0 8 0

97,254
100,576
103,562
105,812
107,568
109,236
111,050
112 ,220
114,174
116,149

97,348
100,491
103,809
106 , 2 5 8
107,352
108,912
111 , 0 8 3

88,232
91 , 3 7 9
93,023
95 , 0 4 9
97 ,70
100 , 93
104,38
06 , 56
08,27
09,37

114,585
116,333

12,541
15,028

60,521
60,906
60,282

0,132
0,893
0,270

60 , 7 4 8
60,738
60 ,357

60,954
59,977
60,116

60,277
61 , 8 3 1
60,291

99,453

108,294

94,267

94,250

94,409

82,565
83,929
86 ,810
89,181
91,584
93 , 6 1 9
95,826
98 ,6 96
101,947
104,327
06 , 7 6 7
08,848
10,117
13,518
15,175

75,770

78,737
80 , 7 3 4
82,77 1
84,382
87 , 0 3 4
89 , 4 2 9
91,949
93 , 7 7 5

96,158
99,009

102,251
104,962
106,940
108,670
1 10 , 2 0 4
111,

550

113,544
115 , 4 6 1

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

78,698
78,700
81 , 1 0 8
83,912
86,754

59 , 9 0 9
61 , 4 4 4
0,185

60,195
61,019
59,908

60,219
61 , 4 5 6
59,792

60,611

0,815

59,926
62,753

60,248
63,31]

60,109
,170

4,404
2,731

4,047
2,631

63,985
62,874

64,196
62,730

64,540
62,745

63,959
63,012

64,121
63,181

4 , 0 46
3,475

63,669
63,470

3 , 922
3 , 549

4,098
2, 950

4,076
2,745

64,207
62,97 9

63,879
63 , 4 9 8

64,07 1
63,036

65,850
6 ,493
7,351

65,374
66,372

65,449
66,688

65,993
66,670

65,608
66,483

65,852
66,968

65,541
67,192

5,919
7,114

66,081
66,847

, 900
, 947

5,738
6 ,380

6,061
5,605
6,577

66,024
65 ,667
66,881

6 5,840
6 5,967
66,969

65,778
,7 46
,702

8,763
0,439

9,356
0,633
2,510
3 ,882
5,561
7,523
8,930
8,987
81,655
84,559
86 , 6 6 9

69,631
71 , 0 3 4
72,497
73,844

69,218
71 , 0 2 5
72,775
74,278

69,399
71,460
72 , 8 6 0
74,520

69,463
71,362
73,146
74,767

69,578
71,286
73 , 2 5 8
74,854

9,582
1,695
3,401
5,051

69,735
71,724
73,840
75,125

69,814
062
729
473

8,614
0 , 1 88
2,173
3,572

9 ,402
0 ,897
2,594
4,001

69 ,480
7 1,369
73 , 0 8 8
7 4 , 7 14

77,412

77,880

78,250

78,413
7 8 , 7 57
82,083
85,185

77,959
78,726
79,305
82,230
85,299

78,250

78,564

8,445
78,685
79,918
82,616
85,987

78,541
78,650
80,297
82,990
86,320

8,740
8, 594

7,166
8,7 80

7 ,605
8,636

8 , 7 17

83,400
86,40 1

81 , 2 1 3
83,842

8, 961
81,87 5

86 , 3 7 0

5,456

86,665

8 5 , 3 5 7

8 5 , 3 3

7 8 , 1 53
78,616
7 9,511
82 , 4 5 0
85,330
87,07 9
86 ,136

6 9 , 7 10
71,827
73,657
75,216
76,499
7 8, 57 5
78,643
80 , 2 2 9
83 , 0 0 2
86,236
86,588
86,497

93,0
97 , 1 33

93 , 7 6 1
97,485

94,105
97 , 5 8 1

90 , 3 5 9
94,553
98,252
99,862
100,239

91 , 6 6

2,188
3,439
5,379
7,367
8,863
8,588
81,573
84,452
86,819

79,139

81,887
84,648
86,891

78,624
79,539
82,578
85,204

7 9*<

82,
85,
79

87,400
87
89,928
90
94,384
94
97,948
98
99,879
99
9 9 , 9 5 5 100
99,692
99
99,168
99
1 0 3 , 1 9 9 103
1 0 6 , 2 9 1 106

60 , 0 9 4
9,962
1 ,643

672
342
519
329
995
191

87,985
90,80 8
94,755
98,480
99,713
100,571

112
856
605

99,189
103,964
106,965

72

88,416
91 ,271
95,394
98,103
99,233
101 ,056
99,576
99,573
104,374
106,949

NOTE: Unless o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , t h e s e ser
' T h i s s e r i e s c o n t a i n s no r e v i s i o n s b u t




88 794
91 754
95 769
98 331
98 945
101 , 0 4 8
100 ,116
99 , 6 7 1
105 , 2 1 9
106 , 9 9 5

•eprinted

fo

88,563
91 , 9 5 9
96,343
98,679
98,682
100,298
99,543
100,573
105,545
106,541

89,093
92,084
96 , 0 9 0

92
96
99,006
98
98,796
98
100 , 6 9 3 100
99,493
99
1 0 1 , 2 1 6 101
105,446 105,
106,842 107'

84,79

570

441
431
776
824
689
633
597
164
136

• g i n n i n g w i t h 1982.
ivenience o f t h e use1

92,702
96,(
99,340
99,077
100,064
99,504
102,024
105,468
107,602

99,317
100 , 3 7 8
99,215
102,049
105 ,646
107 , 7 9 2

9 9 , 545
99,634
100 ,207
99,645
99,112
99,032
102,720 102,980
105 ,967 106 , 2 0 0
107 , 9 7 8 1 0 8 , 1 4 9

99,709

99 , 156
103,673
106,620

95,83
98,37

98,95
100 ,80
99,74
99 , 9 3

105,04
106,82

92,409
96 , 3 9 7
99,041
98 , 8 9 9
100 , 4 8 2
99,543
101 , 6 1 2
105,359
107,193

93,639
97 ,400
99,637
99,499

100,077
99,120
102 , 583
105,938
107 , 9 7 3

762
69,305
7 1 ,088
72,895
74,372
7 5 , 920
77 , 902
78,678
,367
82 , 1 53
85 , 0 6 4
86,794
85 ,846
8 8 , 7 52
92,017
96,048
98 , 8 2 4
99,303
100 , 3 9 7
99,526
100 , 8 3 4
105 , 0 0 5
107,150
(FEBRUARY

1987)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Jan.

Year

Feb.

Mar.
444.

Apr.

May

904
933
2,375
1 , 529
1 ,477
1,
2,964
1 ,810

1 ,948
2,13
3 ,80 5
1,615
1,161
1 ,040

842
1 ,989
1 ,712
3 ,459
1 ,280
2,635
2 ,062
3 ,977
2,581
2 ,008
2 , 0 53
1 ,780
1 ,525
1 ,174
1 ,078

975
2,133
1,833
1,376
1 ,41 5
2,899
1 ,827
1 , 923
2 ,656
2,043
2 ,006
1 ,748
1 ,570
} , 103
1 ,079

927
1 ,188
2,100
2 ,071
1 ,688
1 ,755
3,127
3,161
3 ,046
2,535

903
1 ,334
2 ,069
1 ,993
1 ,693
1 ,80 9
3,214
3 ,041
3 , 136
2,483

900
3 ,382
2,055
2 ,034
1 ,695
1 ,735
3 ,476
3,012
2,939
2,46 8

904
3 ,494
2,049
2,019
3 ,670
5 ,7 96
3 ,632
3 ,002
2,824
2,335

2,724
3 ,46 8

2,726
3 ,483

2,842
3 ,445

3 ,292
3,350

90
1,55
2 ,093
2 ,006
1,671
1 ,736
3,772
2 ,968
2 ,847
2,298
2,117
3 , 598
3 , 5 80

5,596
4,281
3 ,806

5,731
4,132
3 ,762

5,619
4,047
3,728

5,639
4,064
3,791

5,603
3,878
3,629

953.
954.
955.
956.
957.
958.
959 .
960 .
96 1 .
96 2 .
96 3 .
964.
965.
966 .
967 .

1 ,078
I ,662
1 ,812
1 ,442
3 ,457
2,216
2 ,284
1 , 926

90 1
1,816
1 ,719
1 ,425
1,391
2 ,460
2,258
3 .7

2
2
1
1
1
1

,042
,087
, 887
,600
,203
,057

96 9.
970 .
97 1 .
972 .
973 .
974.
97 5 .
976.
97 7 .
1978.
980 .
981 .
982 .
983 .
984.

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Dec,

Nov.

II Q

NUMBER UNEMPLOYED, MALES 20 YEARS AND OVER
(THOUSANDS )

2,02
2 ,00
1 ,66
1 ,51
3 ,08
1 ,07

1,368
905
2 , 2 80
1 ,46 4
1,412

3 ,064
981
2,293
1,354
1 ,404

930
1 ,044
2,254
1 ,46 5
1 ,330

876
1,278
2,008
,455
,481

5
,811
,968
, 56 9
,039
,913
,7 43
,404
,105
,077
,033
923
,624
,061
,981
,628
,800
,627
,167
,769
,200
,3 93
3 ,662
3,526

3 ,027
1 ,850
2,045
2,622
1 ,994
1,900
1 ,663
1 ,394
1 ,121
1 ,034
962
985
1 ,735
2 ,07 9
1 ,960
1 ,566
1 ,833
3,611
3,136
2,698
2 ,232
2,302
3 ,820
3,365

2 ,997
1 ,87
2,12
2,53
2 ,08'
1 ,83
1 ,633
1 ,386
1 ,125
1 ,067
987
957
1 ,755
2 , 160
1,898
1 ,57 5
1,957
3 ,453
3 , 0 46
2,720
2,229
2,350
3 ,770
3,519

2,093
2,139
2,46 6
2 ,009
1,80 4
3 ,703
1 ,344
1 ,063
991
962
1 ,072
3 ,830
2 , 342
1 , S78
1 ,543
1,978
3 , 585
3,075
2,532
2 ,229
2,345
3,747
3,550

2 ,076
2,295
2,371
1 ,932
3 ,851
1 ,740
1 ,260
3 ,036
1 ,046
950
1 ,064
3 ,890
2,029
1 ,910
3 ,467
2,129
3 ,489
3,076
2,679
2 ,222
2,417
3,584

,297
,353
,269
,0 43
,970
,543
,224
,078
,07 1
933
,003
,023
,166
,791
,560
,3 80
,497
3,241
2,584
2,216
2 ,449
3,550

5,366
3,771
3,847

5,172
3,862
3,733

5,151
3,861
3,631

5 ,027
3,830
3 ,660

5,711
4,810
3,738
3 ,673

91 8
891
765
851
1 ,058
1 ,163
1 ,003
1 ,283
1,257
1 ,201
1 ,272
1 ,069
945
3,131

955
822
697
7 83
1,225
1 ,140
937
1 ,408
1 , 144
1,216
1 ,281
1 , 1 96
879
1 ,029

96 9 .
970 .

993
1 ,046

992
3 ,160

972.
973 .
974.
97 5.
976 .
977 .
97 8.
979.
980 .
981 .
982.
983.
984.
985.
986.

592

515
551
1 ,071
848
812
828
1 ,269
1 ,002
1 ,039
1 ,327
2 ,243
1,238
1,135
970
90 4
1,134
928
3 ,068
1 ,657
1 ,657
1,539
1,918
2,600
2,635
2,538
2,308
2,254
2,601
2 , 942
3 ,681
3 ,490
3 ,008

I ,624
1 ,552
1 ,598
2,629
2,619
2,527
2,375
2,262
2 ,380
2,824
3,131
4,000
3 ,203
3,183

592

534

1 ,054
7 83
863
80 6
1 ,349
1 ,040
996
3 ,456
1 ,133
1 ,242

1,038
7 96
853
838
,321
,004
,060
,482
,119
,3 93

1 ,065

3 ,058
792
823
7 13
1 ,385
1 ,064
1 ,003
3 ,447
1 ,126
1 ,196
1,274
1 ,093
889
1 ,0 40

1 ,055
1 ,001
1 ,035

90 5
,067

3 ,284

1 ,029
I ,243

979
1 ,344

,038
,2 90

623

537

1 ,506
1 ,492
1 ,600
2 ,595
2,575
2,616
2,210
2,312
2,395
2,777
3 ,304
3,952
3,135
3,124

1 ,07 1
7 82
824
745
3 ,239
1 ,137
3 ,017
1 ,421
1,161
1,167
1,295
1 ,107

1 ,625
1 ,498
1 ,581
2,742
2,518
2,642
2,238
2,289
2 ,341
2,770
3 ,403
3 ,880
3,127
3 , 1 48
446.

953 . . .
954. . .
955.. .
956 . . .
957. . .
958. . .
959 . . .
960. . .
961 . . .
1962. . .
963. . .
96 4 . . .
3 96 5. . .
966 . . .
967 . . .
968...
96 9 . . .
970 . . .
973 . . .
972. . .
97 3 . . .
974...
97 5 . . .
976. . .
977.. .
97 8. , .
979. . .
980...
982. . .
3983. . .
984. . .
985...
986 . . .

567

1 ,639
1 ,480
1 ,579
2,831
2 , 545
2 ,562
2 ,263
2,238
2 , 565
2,772
3,544
3,737
3 , 144
3,171

1

, 2 3 2

3 ,698
1 ,403
1,618
2,838
2 ,384
2,408
2 ,283
2,189
2,624
2,844
3,555
3,723
3 ,088
3,179

666
541
670
753
498
2,577
2,322
2,251
2 ,656
2,832
3,564
3,857
2 ,966
3,136

558
1 ,035
789
1 ,009
838
1 ,304
1 ,029
1,120
1 ,448
1 , 144
1 ,220
1,161
1 ,038
890
1 ,051
989
97 9
1 ,380
1 ,610
1 ,702
1 ,532
1 ,733
2,679
2 ,673
2,492
2 ,46 4
2 , 196
2,733
2 , 855
3,655
3 ,489
3 , 140

582
466
1 ,018
843
857
80 4
1 ,351
985
1,084
1 ,285
1,235
1,210
1,123
1 ,040
938
985
967
1 ,043
1 ,364
1 ,694
1 ,684
1 ,546
2 ,764
2,643
2 ,673
2 , 542
2,295
2 ,406
2,762
2,834
3 ,627
3 ,535
3,174

1 ,822
1 ,748
1 ,442

5,853
4,603
3,735
3 ,664

1 ,883
2,508
2,182
2,035
1 ,908
1 ,596
1 ,20
1 ,13
1 ,08
88
1 ,06
2,19
2,178
1 ,742
1 ,628
2,727
3 ,346
3,227
2,509
2 ,330
2,435
3,332
4 , 2 80
5,903
4,447
3,822
3 ,617

2,201
1 ,892
2,568
1 ,999
2,092
1 ,824
1 ,580
1 ,179
1,058
1 ,071
910
1,301
2,07 5
2,033
1 ,692
1 ,766
3,272
3 ,07 1
3 , 0 40
2,495
2,279
2,764
3,465
4,472
5,649
4,153
3,765

948
931
2,140
1,615
1 ,448
1,449
2,949
1 ,816
1 , 928
2,671
2,034
1 ,973
1,719
i ,497
1 ,098
3 ,078
979
910
1,557
2,068
2,002
1 ,656
1 ,777
3,677
3 , 0 46
2,813
2,278
2,188
3 ,517
3,485
4,867
5 ,536
3,904
3 ,756

576
553
934
893
816
844
1,221
1,113
1,172
1 ,371
1 , 174
1 ,231
1 ,130
967
955
1,199
954
1 ,074

531
594
957
807
842
927
,065
,017
,254
,224
,190
,257
,1 57
,033
900
,102

485
775
852
830
844
882
1 ,127
1,050
1,318
1 ,258
1,168
1 ,226
1,112
970
980
1 ,088

584
480
981
832
762
7 93
1,174
1 ,147
986
1 ,371
1,187
1,195
1 ,2 83
1,124
903
3 ,075

564
43 5
1 ,050
7 90
846
7 86
1,352
1 ,036
1 ,020
1 ,46 2
1,126
1,210
1,219
1 ,089
932
1 ,047

552
490
1 ,041
827
893
823
1 ,308
1 ,005
1 ,081
1 ,353
1 ,207
1 ,223
1 ,140
1,016
911
1 ,057

1 ,650
3,689
1,416
1 ,846

,701
, 523
,518
,166

1 ,674
1,512
1,573
2,295

1
1
1
1
1

989
,163
,651
,585
,514
,593

1,015
1,292
1,662
1 ,661
1,475
1,622

2,638
2 ,46 2
2,158
2,300
2 ,788
3,029
3 ,80 5
3 ,356
3,174

2,644
2,589
2,281
2 ,264
2 ,767
3,115
4,029
3,261
3 ,076

2,597
2,416
2 ,27 8
2,319
2,775
3,173
4, 122
3,310
3,065

2,571
2,595
2,274
2 ,288
2,372
2 , 7 90
3,279
3 ,944
3,155

2 ,47 6
2,516
2,289
2 ,226
2,615
2,816
3 ,554
3,772
3,066

333
377
47 8

336
339
437

350
287
535

341
276
499

466
703
721
785
831
697
90 5
856
916
827
898
785
911

5 80
684
689
723
802
791
924
851
816
7 92
893
806
840
,279

564
651
720
791
737
704
841
943
857
813
841
843
845
1,259

473
612
597
679
847
771
841
864
900
816
791
80 8
80 9
965

,288
,318
,594
,673
,735
,642
, 5 80
,525
,706
,888
,056
,636
,396
,444

1,289
1 ,288
1,614
1 ,760
1,721
1 ,461
1,620
1 ,571
1 ,611
1,814
2,026
1 ,612
1 ,498
1 ,494

,377
,185
,310
,739
,721
,708
,612
,563
,569
,779
,914
,898
1,559
1 ,490

1
1
1
1

2 90
560
428
484
448
61 8

686
844
7 82
786
870
903
8 40
7 80
752
798
967
1 ,249
,324
,086
,291
,745
,754
,707
, 579
,570
,579

620
845
779
885
846
919
7 80
846
844
797
959
,205
,429
,267
,322
,711
,710
,691
,625
,570
,581

851
752
852
87 5
878
829
746
828
831
969
,245
,379
,201
,318
,760
,700
,726
,631
, 550
,546

,90 8
,930
, 554
, 517

,966
,859
,548
,479

,868
,904
,576
,47 5

285
547

252
538

283
400

2 90
503

294
556

451
472
732

521
484
708

540
506
638

511
748

480
677

6 94
7 90
737
853
896
932
836
lib
770
825
,060
,210
,321
,309
,2 43
,7 47
,7 83
,673
, 582

6 80
760
709

738
834

671
858

738
866

87 1
900
864
862
848
933
855
,157
,265
,276
,194
,457
,840
,657
,788
, 506
,515

931
784
869
865
859
932
904
,060

829
899
828
837
893
814
856
,137

80
06
883
709
915
874
902
831
833
7 96
900
,191

,251
,207
,497
,837
,681
,639
,613

,357
, 1 84
,301
,832
,799
,663
,556
,564
,749
,683
,014
,913
,458
,373

,314
,268
. 541
,738
,670
,682
,588
,591
,673
,738
,000
,7 59
,518
,400

,541
,402

,828
,490
,483

,902
,025
,475
,402

,810
,643
,011
,869
,484
,572

1,019
2,035
1 ,580
1 ,442
1 ,541
2 ,681
2,022
2 ,060
2,518
2 ,016
1 ,971
1,718
1 ,435
1,120
1 ,060
993
963
1,638
2,097
1 ,948
1 ,624
1 ,957
3,476
3,098
2,794
2,328
2,308
3 , 3 53
3,615
5,089
5,257
3,932
3,715

,013

977

1 ,030
1 ,393
1 ,654
1 ,681
1,539
1 ,80 5

531
641
914
843
834
884
1,138
1 ,060
1 ,248
1,284
1 ,177
1,238
1 ,133
9 90
945
1,130
962
1 ,021
1 ,565
1,675
1,575
1 ,502
2 ,102

559
510
997
823
832
821
1,242
1 ,063
1 ,0 80
1,368
1 ,175
1 ,216
1 ,195
1 ,056
921
1 ,078
985
1,015
1 ,349
1,658
1 ,625
1,507
1 ,777

2,660
2,524
2 ,356
2,285
2 ,699
2,877
3,654
3,505
3 ,107
3,151

2,626
2,489
2,239
2,294
2,777
3 ,106
3,985
3 ,309
3 ,105
3,058

2,588
2,535
2,292
2,276
2,615
2,895
3,613
3,632
3,107
3,129

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

293
558

885
860
864
81 7
825
830
1 ,022
1 ,241
,218
,255
,351
,823
,701
,656
,546
,534
,762

893
1,299
2 ,046
1 ,453
1 ,448
1 ,896
2,499
2,085
2,385
2,274
2 ,003
1 ,910
1 ,626
1,229
1,071
1,069
923
1 ,043
2,035
2,124
1,814
1 ,552
2,412
3 ,444
3,181
2 ,591
2,256
2 ,43 4
3,489
4,042
5 ,822
4,620
3,765
3,651

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

NUMBER UNEMPLOYED, BOTH SEXES 1 6 - 1 9 YEARS OF AGE
(THOU SANDS)

286
497
454
459
488
601

1 ,103
934
2,231
1,413
1 ,424
1,518
2,932
1 ,940
2 , 103
2 , 540
2,028
1 ,848
1 ,666
1 ,375
1 ,103
1,031
970
1 ,005
1 ,773
2,127
1 ,912
1 ,561
1 ,923
3 , 550
3,086
2,650
2,230
2,332
3 ,77 9
3,478
5 ,320
5,117
3,851
3,675

872
,575
,876
,439
,532

NUMBER UNEMPLOYED, FEMALES 20 YEARS AND OVER
(THOUSANDS)
952 .
953 .
954.
955.
956.
957 .
958.
959 .
960.
96 1 .
96 2 .
963.
964.
96 5.
966 .
96 7 .

Annual

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1 ,07 8
917
2,121
1 ,420
1 ,455

91

III Q

,567
,579
,716
,798
,013
,713
,460
,577

504
487
6 93
641
704
795
7 13
900
894
885
854
814
843
837
,0 80
,239
,272
,253
,350
,803
,714
,706
,545
,542
,681
,7 46
,951
,91 5
,502
1,429

350
291
541
459
446
487
735
685
705
869
695
892
852
866
844
862
847
887
1,129
1 ,290
1 ,307
1 ,220
1 ,446
1 ,80 2
1,717
1 ,661
1,586
1 ,551
1 ,744
1,688
2 ,008
1 ,847
1 ,487
1 ,448

326
395
461
494
459
537
679
7 10
766
7 90
731
890
883
863
811
877
811
865
1,255
1,2 90
1 ,284
1 ,289
1 ,585
1,728
1 ,724
1,575
1,589
1 ,558
1,678
1 ,833
2,032
3 ,653
1 ,451
1 ,505

345
307
501
450
78

721
884
872
874
837
839
838
853
1 ,106
1,262
1 ,308
1,235
1 ,422
1 ,767
1 ,719
1 ,663
1 ,583
1 ,555
1 ,669
1,763
1 ,977
1 ,829
1 ,499
1 ,46 8

(FEBRUARY 1987)

102




C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
447.

3,719
3,466
3,041
2,391
2,285
2,257
2,088
2,427
3,902
3,933
3 ,402
3,567
6,059
6,045
5,792
5,115
4,699
5,276
7,830
9,824
6 , 9 8 2

3,624
3,391
2 ,980
2,349
2 ,250
2 ,201
2,026

3,539
3,339
3 ,029
2,365
2 ,247
2 ,009
2,107

3 ,884

3 ,441
3,607
6 ,124
5,854
5,867
5,009
4,816
5,285
6,619
8,012
9,891

3,393
3,563
6,493
5,849
5,742
4,952
4,718
5,391
6,533
8,329

6 , 9 0 8

6 , 7 9 7

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov. Dec.

I Q

NUMBER UNEMPLOYED, FULL-TIME WORKERS
(THOUSANDS)

3,722
3,377
3,163
2,301
2,193
2,333
2,071
2 ,663
3 ,868

448.

1,847
1,923
3,022
2,511
2,287
3,087
2,161
2,298
2 ,120
2,108
1 ,7 97
2,048
1,653
1 ,721
1 ,980
2,543
2,487
2 , 0 43
2,525
3 ,7 16
3,424
3,391
3,163
3,259
3 ,526
4,312
4,830
6,450
5,717
5,400

Apr.

3,857
3 ,858
3,385
3,628
6,798
5,864
5,626
4,769
4,768
5,992
6,429
8,545

3,613
3 ,196
2,875
2,423
2,277
2,049
2 ,026
3,158
3,981
3,954
3,324
3,653
7,078
5,724
5,539
4,821
4,514
6 ,589
6 , 6 40
8,691

3,365
3 , 146
2 ,7 94
2,295
2,296
2,171
2,162
3,193
3,928
3,837
3 ,253
3,750
6,772
5,995
5,585
4,670
4,627
6 ,6 87
6,627
8,967

7,301
6,818

6,991
6 , 7 19

6,632
6,811

2,985
2,692
2 ,277
2,236
2,179
2,171
3,304
4,007
3,910
3 ,253
3,928
6 ,721
5,945
5,458
4,968
4,714
6 ,967
6,46 4
9,089
8,919
6 ,988
6,915

III Q

IV Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

3 , 0 96
3,922

3,341
3 ,048
2 ,666
2 ,246
2 ,266
2,112
2,198
3 ,382
4,045

3,412
3,579

3,321
3 ,677

3,27 9
4,022

5,916
5 ,800
5 ,025
4,744
5,317

5,861
5,583
4 , 7 53
4,636
6,423

6 ,000
5,451
4,825
4,821
6,855

,247
,751
, 908
,668

8,057
9,816
7,374
6,896

8,734
9,503
6,975
6,783

9,274
8,859
6 ,942
6 ,778

3,460
3,012
2 ,474
2,261
2 ,384
2 ,007
2 ,200
3 ,866
4,055
3,575
3,329
4,851
6,436
6,104
5,260
4 , 6 80
4,941
6,612
7 ,491
10,111
8,013
6 ,887
6,705

3,053
2 , 6 96
2,235
2,267
2,115
2 ,137
3,356
4,060
3,871
3 ,280
3,889

3,105
2,610
2,225
2,295
2 ,042
2,286
3,487
4,068
3,756
3 ,303
4,248

3,081
2,470
2,218
2 ,417
2 ,0 46
2,240
3,656
3,971
3,832
3,175
4,430

2,925
2,493
2,279
2 ,388
2 ,042
2,169
3,911
4,102

3,029
2 ,459
2,286
2 ,347
1 ,934
2,190
4,032
4,091

3,411
3 ,061
2,347
2 ,243
2,264

3,391
4,851

3,422
5,272

5,998
5,534
4,738
4,893
6 ,877

6,056
5,362
4,769
4,856
6,720

6,060
5,398
4,600
4,923
6,645

6,107
5,331
4,642
4,924
6,682

6,146

5 ,052
4 , 7 98
4,975

9,194

9,538
8,671
6 ,858
6,718

9,928
8,346
6 , 96 8
6 ,727

10,159
7 ,943
6 ,7 86
6,721

6 ,980
6,701

II Q

6 ,509

10
7
6
6

2 ,062
2,626
3 ,885

3,506
3 ,227
2 ,899
2,361
2,273
2,076
2,098

NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED PART TIME FOR ECONOMIC
(THOUSANDS)

1 ,874
2,086
3,174
2,314
2 ,379
3,278
2 , 2 96
2,282
2,232
1 , 973
1 ,637
2,077
1,819
1 ,707
1 ,888
2 , 510
2 ,340
2,182
2,673
3,655
3,288

1 ,678
2,091
3 ,440
2,475
2,197
3 ,024
2 ,414
2 ,281
2,166
1,994
1 ,627
2 ,039
1 ,748
1 ,810
1 ,965
2 ,501
2,433
2,172

1 ,846
2 ,034
3,334
2,310
2,545
2 ,994
2 , 2 80
2 ,296
2,246
1 ,927
1 ,629
2 ,104
1,659
1 ,6 86
2,310
2 ,474
2,520
2,150

1,80 5
1 ,992
2 ,127
3,306
2,123
2,413
2 ,932
2,403
2 ,249
2,205
1 ,983
1 ,706
1 ,702
1 ,7 14
1 ,746
2 ,228
2 ,482
2,387
2,216

1 ,755
2,088
2 ,187
3,019
2,205
2,577
2,748
2 , 2 90
2,288
2,173
1,898
1 ,737
1,838
1,826
1 ,854
2,155
2 ,227
2 , 5 80

1 ,912
2 ,026
2,207
2,771
2 ,302
2,552
2,727
2,369
2,179
2 ,062
1 ,986
1,723
1,850
1 ,727
1,750
2,279
2,421
2,514

1 ,881
2 ,107
2,133
2,80 8
2 ,282
2 ,558
2,731
2,288
2,419
2 ,043
1,963
1 ,563
1 ,765
1 ,705
1,875
2,214
2 ,443
2,548

1 ,864
2,138
2,158

1 ,836
2,036
2,249

1 ,872
2,018
2,378

1 ,884
2,009
2,501

1 ,800
2 ,033

1 ,975
2,116

2,090
2,166

1 ,864
2 ,021
2 ,376

2 ,205
2 ,7 55
2 , 6 47
2,390
2,381
2,114
1 ,776
1 ,616
1 ,875
1 ,659

2 ,423
2,737
2,563

2 ,46 9
2 ,86
2,54

2 ,462
2 , 960
2,405

2,433
2,288
3,130

2,213
2,512
2,891

2,263
2 ,622
2 ,702

2,451
2 ,854
2 , 506

2,330
2,119
1 ,859
1 ,592
1 ,840
1 ,658

2,27
2 ,02
1 ,88
1 ,56
2 ,03
1 ,742

2 ,200
2 , 143
1,761
1 ,807
1 ,832
1 ,697

2 ,287
2,173
2,025
1 ,687
2,055
1 ,7 40

2,278
2 ,208
1 ,936

2,326
2,073
1 ,908
1 ,634
1 ,830
1 ,697

2,269
2 ,096
1 ,835
1,6 55
1 ,902
1,699

2 , 123
2,355
2,424

2 ,377
2,500
2,316

2 ,373
2,583
2,253

2 ,544

1 , 944
2,518
2,420

2,231
2,394
2 ,496

2,205
2,406
2,495

2,431
2 ,500
2,254

3,789
3,247

3,827
3 ,266

3,714
3,329

3,312
3,267
3 ,531
4,169
5 ,436
6,327
5,739
5,134

3,279
3 ,285
3 ,500
4,221
5,618
6 , 1 91
5,480
5,423

3,370
3,373
3 ,922
4,148
5 ,757
6 ,034
5,529
5,365

3,289
3 ,349
4,428
4,286
5,775
5,908
5,273
5,469

3,514
3,170
3,375
3 ,427

3 ,442
3 ,220
3,480
3 ,345

3 ,400
3,259
3,318
3 ,364

3,348
3 ,421
3,379
3,335

3,376
3 ,473
3,324
3 ,26 9

3,333
3 , 541
3,350
3 ,236

3 ,305
3 ,467
3,303
3,151

3,720
3 ,320
3,437
3,251

2 , 540
3 ,685
3,255
3 ,312
3,362

2 ,7 57
3 ,397
3 ,300
3,392
3 ,348

4,270
4,170
5,717
5 ,960
5 ,570
5,276

4 , 2 40

4,37 4

4,266

4,234

4,207

4,184

3,519

4,207

5,722
5 ,877
5,505
5,363

5 ,909
5 ,945
5,365
5,435

6,385

6 ,458

6^356

6 ', 3 6 6

5 ,' 2 9 5

5^750

4 ,2 93
4,509
6,005

4,208
5 ,087
6,393

5,450
5,310

5 ,480
5 ,206

5 ,403
5,316

5,610
5 ,292

5,645
5,319

5,457
5,370

5,440
5,369

5,498
5,271

88.0
87 .9
88.2

87 .6
88.4

87 .6
87 .6
88.0

87.1
86.5
86.2
85.5
84.8

1 , i74

557

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(PERCENT)
88.4
88.0
87.9

88.0
87.8

, 1 84
,338
,494
,3 26

87 .8
87.4
88.1
87.0
86.4
86 .2
86 .2
86.1
85.1

88.1
87.2

87.7
87.4

87 .2
86.2
86.0
86.0
85.8
85.3

87.2
86.2
86.3
85.6
85.9
85.3

87 .1
86 .6
86.4
86.1
85.8
84.7

87 .0
86.9
86.2
86.0
85 .9
85.0

87 .3
86.8
86.1
85.9
85.8
84.8

87.1
87.0
86.6
85.9
85.6
84.4

86.7
87.1
86.3
86.0
85.6
84.9

84.2
84.1
83.6
83 .7
83.1
82 .9
82.8
82.3
81 .6
81.2
81 .8
80.6

84.1
84.1

84.0
84.1

84.5
84.1

84.5
84.3

84.0
83.8

84.3
83.9

84.1

83.5
83.1
83.1
82.8
82 .0
81 .5
81 .4
81 .7
80.4

83.3
83.0
83.0
82.9
81 .9
81 .8
81 .6
81 .3
80 .4

83.5
83.1
82 .8
83.0
82 .2
81 .7
81 .4
81 .0
80.5

83.4
83.2
82.7
82 .9
82.3
81 .6
81 .2
81 . 1
80 .7

83.5
83.4
82.7
82.6
82 .0
81 .7
81 .2
80 .9
80.2

83.5
83.3
82.7
82 .6
82 .1
81 .7
81 .3
80 .7
80.4

9.7
9.7
9.9
9.4
9.3
8.7

79.6
79.8
9.8
9.5
9.3

9.6
9.8
9.5
9.6
9.5
8.9

79.
79.

9.1
8.6
8.1
8.3
8.1

79.8
79.8
80 .3
79.9
79.1
78.7
78.2
78.3
7 8.1

79.6
79.7
79.8
79.4
7 8.9
78.8
78.4

9.7
9.6
9.7
9.4

87 .6
87 .7

87 .3
87 .8

86.6
87.0
86 .4
86.1
85.5
84.6

86.5
86 .5
86 .3
86 .3
85.5
84.6

86.6
86 .3
86 . 5
86.3
85.3
84.4

84.2
83.6

84.2
83.6

84.0
83.5

83 .9
83 .6

83 .2
83 .0
82.9
82.5
82 .0
81 .6
81 .0
80 .8
80.2

83 .4
82.9
82 .8
82.4
81 .7
81 .4
81 .1
80 .8
80 .0
9.8
9.8

79.4
79.5
79.8
79.3
7 8.7
78.9
78.6
78.4
78.2

8.4
8.3

82.5
81 . 9
81 .4
81 .3
80 .9
79.9
80 .0
79.9
80 .0
9. 5
9.2
8.7
8.8
8.5
8.3

81 .4
80 .7
79.6
7 9.8
80 .0
80 .0
79.5
7 9.0
78.6
78.7
78.4
78.3
78.0

87 .9
87 .3

85 .9
85 .2
84.3
84.1
84. 1
83 .6
83 .5
83.1
83 .0
82.8
82 .1
81 .6
81 .4
81 .6
80 . 5
7 9.6
79.7
79.8
80 . 1
7 9.7
7 9.2
78.7
7 8.2
78.3
78.1

88. 1
87 .9
88 . I
87 .6
87 .4
86 . 9
87 . 1
6 .5
.0

83.5
83.4
83 .2
82 .8
82.5
82 .1

8.4
8.0

.4
81 .3
80 .8
7 9.8
79.9
79.9
7 9.9
7 9.6
7 9.1
7 8.7
7 8.8
7 8.4
78.3
78.1

NOTE: These series c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s beginning with 1 9 8 2 .




103

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Mar.

Feb.

Apr.

May

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

1953 . . .

34.6

34.2

34.5

34.0

FOII

AVERAGE

(PERCENT)

33.4

34.1

34.

: 3.7

33.7

34.2
34 .0

34.8
33.6

34.2
33.2

34.1
34.4
34 1

33.8
33.8

..

34.5

34.4

34.3

35.1

4.7

35.0

35.

5

2

6.0

35.9

36 . 0

36 . 0

36.4

34.4

34.9

5.S

36 .2
36.7
37 . 0
36 . 9
38.1
37 . 9

36.7
36 . 8
36.7

6 . 5
36.8
7 .0

36 . 2
37 . 1

6.3
7.0
7.1

36.4
37.0
37.2

36.

9

37 .

)

6.4
2 7.2
6.9

36.5
36.8
36.9

36.6
36 . 8
37 . 3

8.5
37 . 7

37.9
37 . 6

8.1
37.6

38.4
37.5

38. )
37. 3

37.7
38.1

37.5
38.3

37.9
37.9

36.9
36 . 7
37.2
38.2
37.5
37.8

36.5
36 . 8

38.4
3 8.0

36.6
36.6
37.0
38.2
37.6
37.8

38.5

38.8

38.8

39.5

9.3

39.0

38.

38.9

38.6

38.8

38.7

38.9

936 . . .
9 37 . . .

39.8
40 .7

39.6
40 . 5

9 .6
+ 0 .4

39.8
40 . 8

0.0
+0.8

39.9
40 . 9

40 . )
41 . )

40.3
41.1

40.6
41.4

40 . 6
41 . 7

40.9
41.6

40.8
41.8

37.9
38 1
38.7
39 1
39.7
40.5

6.6
7.C
7.C
8.1
7.7
8.C

9

36.3
37.0
37 .1
37.7
38.1
37.6
38 3
39.3
39 4
39.9
40.8

9 39. . .
9 70 . . .
97 1 . . .
9 72 . . .

42.0
43 . 1
43 . 6
43 . 6

42
43
43
43

+2
+3
+3
+3

42.6
43 . 5
43 .2
43 . 6

42.5
+ 3 .0
+ 3 .2
+ 3 .8

42.8
43.2
43.0
43.6

42. 7
43 . 3
43 . )

42.8
43.3
43.2
43.8

42.8
43.0
43 . 4
43 .7

42.9
43 . 4
43 . 5
43.7

42.8
43.4
43.8
43 .6

42.9
43.4
43 . 8
43 . 7

42.3
43 .2
43.4
43.6

42.6
43 . 2
43 . 1
43.7

45.5

45.5

45.3

44.9
45.5

44.8
45.6

44.9

45.2

47.5
48.8
50.1

47.6
48.7
50 . 2

46.6

51.0
51.6

51.2
51.4

46.9
48.1
49.5
50 . 2

52.4
52.9
53.3
53.9

52.2
53.1
53 . 3
54.1

51 . 3
52.3
52.7
52.9
53.8

51 . .
52.(
52. )
53.
53. 3
?4.e

. 4
. 1
.3
.4

. 4
.4
.2
.7

+

43 .
3

9 6 . . .
9 77 . . .
9 78. . .
9 79. . .
980 . . .
981 . . .
982 . . .
983 . . .
984. . .
985 . . .

47 . 4
48.9
50.1
51 . 3
51 . 8
52.2
53.0
53.0
54.4

47 . 6
48 . 9
50 . 3
51.3
51 . 9
52.4
53 . 0
53 . 4
54. 5

453 .

+ 7 .9
+ 9. 1
30.5
)1 . 2
2 . 1
>2 . 5
2 .9
4.7

CIVILIAN

LABOR

48 .0
49 .4
50.2
51 . 4
52.2
52 . 5
52.9
53.6
54.7

FORCE

8.2
+9.4
30.2
?1 . 3
32.4
32.8
32.8
34.1
+

48.1
49.6
50.3
51 . 2
52.2
52.9
53 . 0
53.8

P A R T I C I P A T I O N RATE
(PERCENT)

48.
49 .

)
3
50. 3
51 . 3
52 . 2
52. 9
52 . 9
54. )

BOT1{

:

48.1
49.5
50.8
51 . 4
52.1
52.9
53.3
53 . 8

SEXES

48.5
49.9
50.8
51 . 2
51.7
52.9
53 . 5
53.6

16-19

51.3
49.7
47 . 8
46 .6
48.8
46 . 5
47 . 2

50. J

47 . 8

47 . 1

48.1

43.6

46.
48.
48.
48.•

•9.4
+9.5
+ 8.1
+ 7.7
+8.5
• 6.0
+6.5

52.1
49.4
48.9
46.2
48.1
45.8
47 . 4

52.5
50.2
46 . 5
46 . 0
49.7
47 . 8
47 . 8

51 .
50.
46. I
46 .
47 .
47 .
46 . )

48.4
47 . 1
46.6
46.9
48.0
46.4

49.3
47 . 9
46.9
47 . 4
46.4
45.8

43.7
46 . 7
48.2
48.5
47.8
50.3
49.9
51 . 4
52.9
55.2
54.1
54.2
55.2
56 . 6
58.6
57.2
56.6
54.7
52.8

44 . 1
46 . 9
47 . 5
48.2
48.3
50 . 4
49.3
51 . 9
53 . 5
55.0
54.1
54.4
55.5
56 . 5
58.4
57.2
56 . 4
53.8
52.5

+5.3
+7.4
+7.6
+7.9
+8.7
+9.9
+ 9.7
51.8
53.7
53.8
53.6
55.2
55.7
57.0
57.9
55.9
57.0
54.3
52.6

45.6
46.9
47 . 2
48.2
47.5
49.7
49.4
51.5
53.2
54.3
54.7
55.1
55.6
57.9
57 . 3
57.0
56.3
55.3
52.2

44.0
48.5
48.8
49.3
49.6
49.0
47 . 5
51.9
54.5
55.3
53.8
53.8
57 . 0
58.5
58.0
57.0
54.0
52.5
54.9

46 . 3
49
49 .
49.

45.5
49.3

46 . 5
47.5

8. . .
9. . .
0 . . .
1 . . .
2 ...
9 3 . . .
9 4 ...
97 5 ...
9 6 . . .
97 7 . . .
9 8 ...
97 9 ...
980 . . .
981 . . .
982 . . .
983 . . .

43 . 0
48 .0
48.3
46 .6
47 . 7
50.4
50 . 0
51 . 1
50.8
55.1
54.9
54.2
54.2
56.7
58.5
57 . 7
56 .7
54 . 4
53.8
55 . 2

55.2

55.2

54.7

55.0

52.4

40 . 5
66 . 7
42 . 9
77 . 1
31.4
38.6
54.3
70 . 0
28.6
37 . 1
57 . 1
62.9
80 . 0
54.3
48 .6
48 6
48.6
54.3
50.0
57 1
57 . 1
55.9
58.8
52 . 9
66.2
47 . 1
35.3
47 . 1
61.8
41 . 2
72.1
67 . 6
52.9

6 1.4
60.0
42.9
50.0

51.4
60.0
67.1
62.9

0 .
38.

38.6
64.3
55.7

57.1
54.3
34.3

44 . 3
55. 7
54. 3

47.1
37.1
57 . 1

54.3
42.9
51.4

62.9
61.8
64.7
44.1
70.6
51.5
6 9.1
63.2
44. 1
50.0

60.0
70.6
58.8
35.3
63.2
70.6
6 1.8
73.5
38.2
41.2

6 2 .
38.
64.
7 9.
55 .
58.
82 .
41 .
23 .
7 7 .

3
9

54.3
61.8
76.5
52.9
61.8
58.8
41.2
64.7
35.3
50.0

57.4
50.0
3 5.3

6 1.8
52.9
55.9

79.4
35.3
47 . 1

63.2
58.8
60.3

otherwise noted, these ser

104




4
9
3
4

53 . 2

54. I

53.5

54.6

54.4

54.4

55 . 2

54.0

54.

54.5

54.5

47 . 6
• 4.6
+ 6 .7
2.4

47 . 6
36 . 7
53 . 8
60.0
56 . 2
43.3
56.2

54.

47.1
47 . 1
65.7
52 8
59.5
60 . 5
55.2
51.0
59 5
48.6
45 .2

55..
47 A
)5 ."

54.1

65. 7
61 . +
55.
40 . )

9

53 . 0

53.5

52.9
65.7
62.9
7 1.4

70.0
32.9
37 . 1
7 2.9

7

47 . 8
47 . 9
50.4
49.7
51.5
52.4
55.1
54.4
54.3
55.0
56 .6
58.5
57 . 4
56.6
54.3

55. 2

7

d
3
+
7

47.8
50.4
49.8
50 .6
52.8
55.1
54.4
53.8
54.1
56.3
58.2
58.3
55.9
53.8
53.9
54.0

3
54. 5
53. 2
53. 3

6 .
7#
7 _
45 .
5 .
+1 .
4.

61 .
68.
51 .
35.
67 .
20 .
45 .
25.
55.
65.

55.5
53.5
54.4
56.5
58.3
57 . 5
56 .6
55.0
54.4
53.0

47.7
50.9
50.1
50.5
52.4
55.1
55.1
53.2
54.4
57.2
58.2
57.7
56 . 2
55.2
54.7
53.6

48.0
50.9
50.1
49.7

61.9
14.3
65.7
87.1
50 . 0
50 . 0
68.6
67.1
45.7
68.6

45.2
38.6
31.4
72.9
57.1
38.6
37.1
68.6
44.3
62.9

3 5 .
42 .
+ 4 .3
j

e

8.6
0.0
8.6
5.7
8.6
7 .
7 .
5.4 ..
8.C
5 ."

L

1

mi•

AVERAGE
38.1
45.7
48.6
58.6
80.0
44.3
82.9
30.0
38.6
51.4

57.1
60.0
71.4
45.7
38.6
14.3
38.6
67.1
54.3
40.0

57 . 1

62.9
50.0
57 . 1

42.9
55.7
80.0

57.1
58.6
7 1 .4

65.7
50 .0
5 .7

2.9

4 2.9
6 2.9

47.1
51.4
65.7

42 . 9
64.7
29.4
61.8
47 . 1
44.1
76.5
50.0
73.5
32.4

7 .4
6 4.7
2 .9
5 4.4
6 .6
6 4.7
5 3.0
4 .1
5 .4
4 2.6

68.6
38.2
23.5
50.0
70.6
64.7
57.4
52.9
51.5
38.2

35.4
1 .3
+ 8.0
44.1

60 . 8
48 .5
38.2

63 . 2
55.9
57 . 4

6 4.7
5 5.9

58.8
52.9
35.3

3.8
56.8
48 .0

70.6
40 .2
56 . 4

3 1 .
45.
31 .

• 2* ZJ
1 •+

72.9
7 1.4

60.0
44 . 1
47 . 1
48.5
51.5
55.9
58.8
39.7
55.9
47 . 1

34 .
32 .
38.
9 .
39 .
+7 .
+4 .
+7 .
7 .
2 .

7 .
0 .f
8.2
7 .
+4 .
0.6
0.6
5.9
2.9
5.3

65.7
52 . 9
44.1
52.9

69.1
26.5
61.8

35.
55.

9

6 1 . 8

7 0 . 6

9

5 1 . 5

4 1 . 2

55 .

9

5 5 . 9

4 5 . 6

f

55.9
64.7
58.8
50.0
76.5
48.5

50.1
49.3
47 . 3
46 . 8
47 . 1
46.5
45.0
44.8

49..
47 .
+6.<
47 .2
47..
+ 6 . .

47 .7
48.9
48.4
47 . 8
50.7
50 .0
50.3
52.4

9

50.
3
50.
52 .(
53. 3
54. 3
54.()
54. 1
56. 4
49.

55.0

55.0
53.5
54.3

58.
57 .1+
56. 3

56.7
58.2
57 . 8
56.2

54. 3
33. 3

54.7
54.3

INDUSTRIES

64.3
32.9
58.6
68.6
75.7
35.7
48.6
37.1
44.3
55.7

7*"

1 .

51 . 9
54.8

6 6 .7
47 . 1
57.1
40 . 0
40.0
52 . 9
57 . 1
84.3
45 .7
54.3

64.3
64.3
52.9

46.1

45 .0
47 .6
47 . 9
48.5
48.6
49.5
48.9
51 .7
53 . 8
54.5
54.0
54.7
56.1
57 . 8
57.7
56.6
55.8
54.0

47 . 9
50.5
50.4
49.3
51.6
54.3
55.7
54.1
53.9
55.9
58.1
57.8
56.3
54.8
54.0
53.7

GOODS

49 J •
47 .

50.7
49.6
47.5
46.7
47 . 5
46.8
46.1
45.1
44.5
45.6
48.1
48.4
48.3
49 . 4
49.9
49.7
51 . 9
53.7
54.8
54.0
54.5
56.0
57 . 8
57 . 9
56 .7
55.4
54.1
53 . 5

49.0
50.0
49.7
50.5
52.9
53.2
53.8
53.8
55.1
57.2
59.3
56 . 8
55.9
55.2
54.2
55.0

19.0
27.1
44.3
57.1
51.4
60.0
54.3
48.6
40.0
62.9

57.1
28.6
6 5.7
67.1
28.6
60 .0
28.6
67.1
48.6
58.6

51 . 3
50.5
48.4

50 .6
50.0
47 .6
47 .0
47.1
47 . 2
46.1

50 . 0
50.6
47.5
46.7
46.7
47.6
46.8

952 . . .
953 . . .
954. . .
955 . . .
956 . . .
957. . .
958. . .
959 . . .
960 . . .
96 1 . . .
96 2
963. . .
964. . .
965 . . .
966. . .
96 7
968. . .
96 9 . . .
970 . . .
97 1
972. . .
973 . . .
97 4 . . .
975. . .
976 . . .
977. . .
978. . .
979. . .
980 . . .
981 . . .
982
983 . . .
984. . .
985. . .
1986. . .

50.9
48.8

54.6

47 . 1
47 . 4
46 . 5
+ 5.6
+ 4.8

50.5
49.8
48.0
46 . 7
47 . 4
46 . 7
45.9

MANUFACTURERS' NEW O R D E R S - - 3 4 - 3 5 DURABLE
(PERCENT R I S I N G OVER 1-MONTH 3PANS

49.6
50.6
51 . 3
52.1
52.7
53 . 1
53.7
54.7

50.3
49.3

51 . 4
49 . 5
47 . 4
47 . 5
47 . 2
47 . 4
45.6

INDEX OF

47 .0

50.1
51 .0
51.5
52.3
52.9
53 . 3
54.0
54.9

50.4
49.4
46 . 8
46 . 3
47 . 4
47 . 4
44.9

. . .
. . .
. .
..
. . .
. . .
. . .

DIFFUSION

47 . 4

49."
30."

49.7
49.3
47 . 9
46 .6
47 . 3
46 . 4
45.3

956
957
958.
959.
9 0
9 3 1
9 32

964.

+7 ..

+

50.3

50.0
49.6
48.0

985 . . .
986 . . .

42 .7
43.3
43.3
43 .7
44.4
45.3

42.5
+ 3 . :
43.2
43 . "
44.

50. (

51 . 2
49. 3
47 .

56 .

5. i

42 . 9
43 . 4
43 .7
43 .7
44.8
45.5

4l .2

51 . 9
50.7
48.3

52.8
50 . 9
46 . 3

57 .
57 .

38.8
40 . 8
41 . 7

51 . 6
53.2
51 . 3

52.3
49.5
48.6

58. 4

8."

51 . 1
49.2
44.6

50.7
51.8
0.1

50. )
49. 4
50 . 5
51 . 3
53 . 3
54. 9
54.
55 . 3

35.3

l4 0 . :

51 . 4
48.9
46.3

50.9
53.1
51.7

9
9
9
9
9

36.7
36.7
37 . 2
38.0
37.7
37.8
38.6

50.2
48.2
47 . 3

51 . 8
54 . 0
51.4

f

34.1
33.9

36.5
36.9
37.0
37 .6
38.0
37.8
38.3
38.9
39.4
40 .2
41 . 1

I

50.5
49.1
48.5

52.2
52 . 4
50.9

9

53.9

49 .0
50.3
51 . 3
51 . 9
52 . 4
53.0
53 . 3
54.5

34.4
33.6
34.3
36.1

YEARS OF AGE

952 . . .
953 . . .
954. . .

50.6

48.3
50 .0
50.9
51 . 4
52.3
52.7
53 . 2

36.9
36 . 7
38.3

Annual

PERIOD

4.2
3.J

9 57 . . .
9 58. . .
9 59. . .
y 30 . . .
9
9

955.

IV Q

III Q

ll Q

50.0

9.0
45 . 7
40 . 0
8.6
40.5
32 . 9

1 9
1 .9
39.5
3l . 4
4.3
+5 7
+ 8 .1
37 . 6
+ 6 .7
2 4
0 .0
2.8
0.8
+4.1
6 .7

6 .4

54.3
53 8
59.1
48.0
62.8
60.3

56.4
57 . 8

58.3

FO I

PERIOD

)

58.

57 .
32 . +
+9
30.
53 . 3
54.

30. 3

57 .{
51 .(
35.
38.

32 .

3
49. 3
52. 3

61 .0
55.9
26 . 9
55.4
61.8
57 . 8
61.3
50 . 0
60.8
37 . 7
62.2
54.9
47 . 6

64.8
50.4
51 . 1

51 . 4
54.3
54.8

38. t

35.'
3l .
47 .C
59. 3
i6 .1•

50.6
43.9
56 . 1
60.1
51 . 2
42.7
53 . 1
53.9
45.2
55.8
52.8
58.6
58.2
58.3
53.3
53 9
52.3
51 . 2
50.1
53.9
61 . 4
54.6
49.4
54.9
60.3
58.2
58.8
52 .7
53.2
44.7

53.2
46 . 2
59.5
57.6
64.8
31 . 4
56.7
44.7
45.7
49.0

48.
34.30.
44. 3
30.
59.

6 9.5
45.7
61 0
51 . 9

48.1
44.8

-

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

June

May

Aug.

July

GOODS
(PERCENT
1952 . . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1962...
1963...
1964. . .
1965. . .
1966...
1967 . . .
1 96 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970 . . .
197 1 . . .
197 2 . . .
1973...
974. . .
1975...
1977 . . .
197 8 . . .
1979. . .
1980 . . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983 . . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986...

RISING

9 - MONTH

OVER

82 . 9

91 . 4

68.1

57.6
60.0

4.8
3.3

57 . 1
82 . 9
82 . 4
67 . 6
35.3
73.5

54.3
77.1
91 . 2
79.4
17.6
7 9.4

60 .0
82 . 9
88.2
75.0
17 . 6
91 . 2

60 .0
94.3
91 . 2

31 . 4
71 .0
91 . 4

29.5
63.3
83.8

6 .7
7 .2
i 3 .7

41 . 2
79.4

62.9
80.0
88.6
64.7
32 . 4
76.5

29.4
85 . 3

76.5
31.4

57.9
6 1.8

36.3
6 .5

58.1
84.8
90 .2
75.0
21 . 5
85.3

85.3
94.1
91 . 2
64.7
52.9
29.4
32.4
97.1
44.1
67 . 6

91 . 2
85 . 3
52 . 9
73.5
23.5
29.4
91 . 2
61.8
47 . 1

79.4
79.4
75.0
76.5
20 .6
50 . 0
91 . 2
52 . 9
61 . 8

88.2
85.3
61 . 8
94.1
23 . 5
47 . 1
97 . 1
29.4
52.9

85.3
88.2
48.5
82.4
17 . 6
50.0
94.1
55.9
47 . 1

94.1
91 . 2
36.8
79.4
14.7
70.6
91 . 2
44.1
52 . 9

90 . 2
86 . 3
76 . 5
29.4
75.5
23.5
85 . 3
85.3
53 . 9

84.3
87 . 3
64.7
49.5
45.1
27 . 5
88 . 7
56 . 4
56 . 4

f 8.2
5 .3
64.2
67.6
24.5
I 7 .3
3 .2
2.9
8.8

89.2
88.2
49 .0
85.3
1 8.6
55.9
94.1
43.1
51 .0

6 8.6
65.7
7 1.4
85.7
80.0

85.7
62.9
62.9
74.3
81.4

7 7.1
62.9
44.3
71.4
91 . 4

7 1.4
60.0
62.9
80 . 0
82.9

58.6
54.3

52.9

72.9

65.7
68.6

40.0
68.6
91.4

20.0
68.6
91.4

34.3

22.9
7 1.4
85.7

34.3
57 . 1
80.0

31.4
61.4
85.7

50.0
68.6
80 . 0

82 . 4
23.5

7 9.4
26.5

67 . 6

47 . 1
64.7

91.2
94.1
8 8.2
82.4
20.6
82.4
17.6
88.2
91.2
45.6

86.8
94.1
94.1
76.5
3 2.4
« 2.4
1 7 .6
82.4
7 9.4
63.2

968.

82.4
76.5
70.6
35.3
61 . 8
35.3
85.3
85.3
52.9

DIFFUSION

INDEX

64.7
OF

STOCK

PRICES,

Q

3
2
1
6
1
2
4
2
2
0

500

COMMON

ST0CKS--42 -82

INDUSTRIES

76.9
71.2
93.1
72.5
41.2

25 . 6
43.7

91.9

19 5 9 . . .
1960 . . .
1961 . . .
1962...
1963 . . .
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966 . . .

86.2
27 . 5
86.9
25.6
97 . 5
74.7
92.2
74.0

196 7 . . .
1968.. .
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971.. .
197 2 . . .
1973.. .
1974...

9

0 .0
7.5
9 6 .2
1 .9
5.6

52 . 9
65.2
84.4
69.2
57 . 3

45.8
15.6
81 . 2
68.5
25.6

3l . 0
+ 7 .3
5.2
49. 1
34.8

64.6
74.8
82.9
54.6
38.7

53 . 6
50.7
80 . 9
60.4
44 .1

84.4

80 . 0

89.4

82.5

80 . 8

78.9

36.2

16.9
40 . 0
36.2
76.9
76.3
81 . 2
3 .9

25.0
46 . 9
8.1

90 . 0
87 . 5
98.7
44.9
59.6
70 .1
88.3

8 .2
55.0
84.4
68.4
24.0
57 .1
59.7

24.8
89.6
49 . 4
73.3
72.8
7 9.4
45 .7

54.4
64.8
3 .7
76.0
54.5
4S . 9
30 . 3

42 . 7
34.6
3 1 . 2
30.4
39.0
i 1 .9
6 .2

84.0
60.0
65.4
63.1
63.7
52.7
52 .2
6 4.7
57 . 8

82 . 5
57 . 5
46 . 8
68.0
44.5
6 5.6
62.1
63.0
37 . 5

17.8
34.7
77.8
23.6
76.4
41 . 9
7 .6

86.7
61.3
96 . 5
71 . 5
33 . 8
88.2
1 .5

82 . 7
72.7
72.2
18.1
33 . 8
89.0
66 . 2

77 . 3
68.0
48.6
2 .8
90 . 1

32.0
22.9
49.8
84.9
7 8.7
20.3
75.8

86 . 2
43 . 3
22 . 3
51 . 2
45.4
17.3
25.5

3l . 1
33 . 3
72 . 0
46 . 5
46.9
35.4
4. 5

80 . 0
56 . 5
28.8
64.8

43.1
23.4
98.3
92 . 6

56.2
15.3
37 . 3
53.7

1 5 .4
11 . 3
8 .6
3.7

50 . 8
66 . 9
0.0
38.0

91 . 9
46 . 8
69.0
95 . 4

7 8.7
39.0
29.6
71 . 9

41 . 3
44. 1
80 . 2
62.1

59.8
31.7
54.8
70.4

77.6
48.2
73.1
38.9
67 .1
36 .6
48.7
53 . 9
52 .7
41 .7
25.9
45.7

61.7
36 . 9
54 . 3

70 . 8

72.7
4.0
98.6
95 . 8
77 . 5
13.4
9.2

92.5
19.2
52 . 9
52 . 0
34.8

40 . 4
26.5
30.6
93.5

0 .0
100.0
85.4
73.9
11.1

58.7
98.0
47 . 9
34.8
5 5.6

65.4
85.7
57 . 4
78.3
8 8.9

67 . 3
51 . 0
61.7
26.1
86.7

64.8
24.7
65.3
41 . 1
7 3.2

59.5
51 . 6
7 9.6
38.7
6 5.9

19.9
59.8
56 . 0
67.4
3 9.3

63.8
7 8.2
55.7
46 . 4
7 7.1

FOR

PERIOD

79.4

65.0

43 . 3

56 . 2

72.9

75.

61.9

98.7
73.7
41 . 2
30.0
98.7
32.5
90 . 0
70.0
93 .7
71 . 2
76.6
6 7.5
58.4
46 . 1
52.0
25.3
97 . 2
59.7
36 . 2
53.7
38.5
80 . 0
56 . 5
16.1
47 . 3
37.7
88.7
10.6
98 . 0
40 . 4
76.1
92 . 9

98.7
60 .6
33 . 1
3 0 .0
9 6 .2
26 . 2
9 7 .5
6 2 . 5
9 5 .0
84.4
76 . 6
7 0.1
66 . 2
50 . 0
56 . 0
31 . 5
98 . 6
65.3
34.8
35.8
70 . 8
80 . 0
48.4
23.7
67.3
39.6
86 . 8
34.6
100 .0
34.0
91 . 3
90 . 5

89 . 1
95.0
60 .0
58.5
67.5
88.3
37 . 9
97 . 5
10.4
96.2
82 .6
6 3.6
44.4
91.1
65.4
42 .7
5 .6
94.9
63.2
23 . 5
15.2
86 . 8
93 . 3
43.8
30 . 3
6 . 1
34.7
3 8.7
38.5
97 . 3
+ 1 .9
8. 9

97 . 1
84 . 6
57 . 3
3 5.6
99.6
7 1.3
39.4
91 . 4
3 . 1
89.6
85 . 0
6 6.2
13.4
90 . 6
81 . 4
13.3
19.9
77 . 3
6 5.3
22.5
7 .1
92 . 8
82.5
33.8
85.6
84.9
90 . 6
48.7
51 . 2
87 . 9
34.8
77 . 8

97 . 9
7 1.2
36 . 4
26 . 6
1 00 . 0
54.4
57 . 5
73.7
7 .9
7 8.4
72.1
6 1.2
17.3
6 8.4
90 . 6
22.2
50 . 2
39.8
52.6
22 . 4
6 .2
7 9.3
54.9
25.5
6 8.7
66 . 7
91 . 8
29.5
88 . 5
81 . 6
60 . 1
81 . 3

98.
68.

95.7
9. 9
46 . 9
37 . 4
31 . 3
31.2
36 . 3
82 . 3
26 . 7
84.8
7 9.0

1 7.5

73.1

59.4

91.2

8 6 . 2

85.6

6L . D
12.5
« 6.2
5.0
8.7
t 5.2
31 . 8
/t 8 . 7

80 . 6
34.4
85.6
47 . 5
43 .7
78.5
64.3
14.3

53 . 1
51 . 9
72.5
8.7
91 . 2
75.6
70 . 8
63.6

53.7
35.0
81.9
1.2
85.0
52.6
66.9
3.9

4 1 . 9
7 6 . 2
4 0 . 0
1.2
5 1 . 9
3 5 . 3
0.0
2 3 . 4

80 . 6
35.0
42.5
69.4
29.4
89.7
24.7
38.3

42.5
76 . 2
81 . 2
78.1
7 5.0
41 . 0
79.9
6.5

90 . 9
64.5
12 . 0
43.3
95.8
89.6
26 . 8
85 . 8

2 .2
0.5
l »3 . 3
: 3 .3
37.5
0 .1
4.5
30.7

6 1.0
21.1
13.3
82 . 7
71 . 5
76.4
19.6
91.0

7 6.0
94.7
54.0
16 . 4
84.0
71 . 5
21.7
9.7

7 4.0
83.6
74.7
2.7
41 . 7
21.5
14.7
27.3

5 1 . 3
8 0 . 3
1.3
47 . 9
2 7 . 8
4 3 . 1
1 5 . 4
3 9 . 4

48.7
4.0
41 . 7
44.4
30 . 6
66 . 2
4.5

197 5 . . .
197 6 . . .
1977 . . .
1978. . .
197 9 . . .

9 5.4
100 . 0
46 . 0
8.1
94.8

)3 . 8
33.1

86 . 2
53 . 1

0 .6
35.5

50.0
85.5

6 9.2
31 . 5
49.2
90 . 7
80.0

61.0
41 . 5
37.0
90.7
16.4

7 0
50
4 6
5 9
9 0

. 8
.8
. 0
. 3
. 0

1981 . . .
1982. . .
1983. . .
1984...

7 4.1
66.0
10 . 6
63.3
52.1

32.8
42 . 5
34.6
39.2
0 .6
93.5

3 .8
85 . 8
28.8
73.5
60.6
37.0

81 . 1
88.5
81 . 6
43 . 6

92.5
30.2
54.8
91.8
36.2

8
6
1
6
3

9.6
7 . 3
1 . 5
5 . 3
6 . 2

87.5
41.9

.7 . 4

43.5

5.6
85.6

0
7 1
8 8
2 0

8.1
. 0
. 2
. 7
. 0

PERIOD

90.0
81 . 2
91 . 9
86 . 9
46 . 9

83.7
33.7

9.4

7

FOR

13.7
75.6
60 . 6
5.0
23 . 7

53.7
76.9
83.1
23 . 1
56 . 9
7.5
88.7

38.1
41 . 2
86 . 9
33.1
23.1

88 . 0
86.8
63 .6
58.0
40 . 9
36 . 0
90 . 3
59.4
55.0

13.7
0 .0
51 . 9
70.6
12.5

56 . 2
80.6
80.6
47.5
88.7

21.2

48.0
63 . 7

(u
AVERAGE

1952. . .
1953 . . .
1954...
1955 . . .
1956...
1957...
1958. . .

65.8
69.0
80 . 1
86 . 2
59.6
61.7
7 1.9
52.5
43 . 9
74.0
87 . 3

84.3

82.9
62.9
68.6
80 . 0
80.0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

73.8
72.8
77.1
94.3
36 .2
7 1 .0
86 .2

77 . 1

6 2.9
57 . 1
7 1.4
74.3
82.9
85.7
42 . 9
74.3

5
8
4
0
4
8
2
1
1
0

51 . 6
27 . 3
73.3
81 . 1
49.9
25.4
73.2
61.1
40.8

74.3

6 7.1
60.0
70 . 0
92.9
88.6
91.4
44.3
71 . 4

O C

66.7
20 . 5
91 . 4
69.5
49 .0
27 .6
88.6
33.4
47 . 1

77.1
80 . 0
80 . 0
97 .1
40.0

48.6
68.6
81 . 4
91.4
78.6
97.1
42.9
58.6

8
8
9
7
4
3
3
9
4
5

1 -> . J
63.8
t 1 .4
7 . 1
86.7

PERIOD

80 . 0
77 . 1
77.1
94.3
34.3

8.6
94.3
7 1.4
64.3
17.1
68.6
51 . 4
44.3

A

7 9.1
63.8
67 . 6
80 . 0
80.5

FOR

64.3
61 . 4
74.3
91 . 4
34.3

7 .1
65.7
74.3
68.6
20 . 0
85.7
47 . 1
34.3

61.8
58.8

5 9.5
61 . 9
74.3
86 . 2
83.4

AVERAGE

68.6
77.1
80 . 0
85.7
40.0

5.7
91.4
80.0
51.4
14.3
77.1
71.4
37.1

100.0
85.3
85 . 3
58.8
58.8
38.2
26.5
88.2
52.9
54.4

47.6
7.6
i. 2 . 9
1 7 .6
57.2
2 0 . 9
7 9 . 1
4 6 . 6
: 6 .7

Annual

I

22 . 9
88.6
7 1 .4
51 . 4
25.7
94.3
34.3
61 . 4

42.9
65.7
88.6
21.4
18.6
80 . 0
88.6
37.1

1 AA

44.4
25.7
74.3
87.6
37.6
16.7
77.1
76.2
41 . 9

IV Q

27 . 1
91 . 4
68.6
41 . 4
28.6
8 5 .7
22 . 9
42 . 9

28.6
65.7
94.3
40.0
17.1
74.3
68.6
51.4

7 9.4
79.4
82 . 4
64.7
45.6
58.8
23.5
86.8
75.0

47 . 6
55 . 6
44.8
89.5
55 . 7
36.2
48.1
88.1
37 . 6

II Q

1 1 .4
94.3
68.6
54.3
28.6
85 . 7
42 . 9
37 . 1

52.4
55.7
88.6
34.3
25.7
61 . 4
78.6
34.3

64.7
61.8

IQ

7 .1
88.6
87.1
38.6
25.7
82 . 9
41 . 4
31.4

47.6
44.3
85.7
68.6
45.7
51.4
94.3
34.3

44.1
94.1

III Q

Dec.

SPANS)

66.7
34.3
94.3
64.3
37.1
31.4
91.4
44.3

75.7
91 . 4

Nov.

Oct.

Sept.

85 .6

65.0
90 . 6
53.7
95.0

44.9
73.1
66 . 9
25.3

55.4
59.5
34.9
38.6
58.1
39.1
47 .6
62.5

5 9.2
52 .0
53 .6
64.1
48 . 4
63.9

1986 . . .
968.

1952 . . .
1 953 . . .
1954. . .
1955. . .
1956. . .
1957 . . .
1958...
1959...
1960. . .
1961 . . .
1962. . .
1963 . . .
1964...
196 5 . . .
1 966 . . .
1967 . . .
1 96 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970 . . .
1971 . . .
1972. . .
1973 . . .
1 974. . .
1975.. .
1 976 . . .
1977 . . .
1 978. . .
1 97 9 . . .
1980 . . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983 . . .
1984. . .
1985 . . .
1986 . . .

DIFFUSION

INDEX

42 .5

35.0

52.5

5 9.4
83.7
91 . 2
56 . 2
51 . 2
47.5
95.0
30 . 0
97 . 5
17.5
95.0
83.1
80.5
51 . 9
85.7
61.8
73.3
5.5
98.6
62.5
26 . 5
28.8
62.0
90 . 8
33 . 0
49. 1
18.2
39.6
79.2
34.6
100.0
41 . 5
77 . 8

18.1
91.2
97.5
3l . 2
39.4
30 . 0
35.0
4l . 2
97.5
6 .2
95.0
78.2

5 5.0
92 . 5
96.2
72.5
65.0
95.0
85 .0
42.5
97 . 5
7 .5
98.7
86 . 5

43.5
90.3
33.2
40 . 0
5.6
95 . 1
59.0
9.1
0 .6
98.5
93 . 8
43 . 5
32.1
32.7
47 . 2
37.3
42 . 3
98.0
25.5
73.3

37.7
97.4
71 . 1
14.7
5.6
91 . 0
68.1
25.0
6 .1
100.0
95.4

54.8
69.8
57 . 4
77 . 4
59.6
38.5
93 . 9
58.7
85 .6




OF STOCK P R I C E S ,
5 0 0 COMMON
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH

ST0CKS--42 -82
SPANS)

58.7

4 2 . 5

64.4

74.4

48.7
97 . 5
95.0
67 . 5
50.0
100 .0
84.4
42.5
97 . 5
3 .1
95.0
85 . 9

97 . 5
88.7
55 .6
36.9
100.0
67.5
36.9
95.6
3.7
89.1
84.6

9 6 . 2
7 0 . 0
4 8 . 7
2 0 . 0
98.7
61 . 9
3 8 . 7
8 1 . 2
2.5
8 4 . 6
8 4 . 6

96 . 2
68.7
43 . 7
25.0
100 .0
55.6
46 . 2
76 . 2
1 .2
78.2
81 . 8

22.1
93.4
76.3
12 . 0
6.9
97 . 2
84.7
19.1
6.1
95 . 4
89.2
54.8
82.8
90 . 7
90.6
59.6
18.0
89.8
30.4
77.8

11.7
92.1
82.7
6.7
25.0
77.8
67.6
17.6
10.6
93 . 8
93 . 8
29.0
86.2
88.9
94.3
44.2
56 . 0
87.5
37.0
82.2

6 . 5
6 . 2
5 . 3
1 . 3
7 . 8
6 . 9
3 . 7
0 . 9
4.6
8 9 . 2
6 4 . 6
17.7
8 7 . 7
7 5 . 0
8 6 . 8
4 2 . 3
7 9.6
8 6 . 5
37 . 0
7 3 . 3

9.7
68.4
93.3
25.3
31 . 9
31 . 9
54.9
23.9
4.6
80 . 8

97 . 5
81 . 2
31.9
23 . 7
100 .0
56 . 9
57 . 5
73.7
3 .7
79.5
68.8
59.1
22 . 1
65.8
97 . 3
21 . 3
46 . 5
43.1
54.9
16.4
3 .1
66.2
56 . 5
27 . 4
67 . 5
68.5
96 . 2
32.7
87 . 8
80 . 9
54.3
82 . 2

67 . 5

8
8
2
2
5
4
3

45.4
26 . 6
70.2
63 . 0
84.9
46 . 2
87.8
91 . 5
60 . 9
75.6

INDUSTRIES

©
AVERAGE

80 . 0

81 . 2

100.0
63 .7
33 .7
31.2
100 .0
50 . 6
68.7
7 1.2
18.7
77 . 6
65.6

98.7
72.5
27 . 5
26 . 2
100 . 0
33 .7
83 .7
67 . 5
67 . 5
69.2
7 5.3

20.1
7 1.1
81 . 3
20 . 0
72.2
44.4
47 . 9
26 . 9
10.8
90 . 8
62.9
22.6
68.4
68.5
94.3
9.6
89.8
72.3
65.2
86 . 0

47 . 4
52.6
71 . 3
14.7
95.8
50.7
42 .0
35.8
23.1
87 .7
57 . 3
19.4
39.1
69.8
90.6
14.4
89.8
38.3
82.6
88. 1

33 .
28.
98 .
30 . 8
90 . 4
66.7
85.4
74.9
76.2
66.0
57 . 3
49 .6
59.8
23.8
97 .2
58.6
37 .7
41 . 8
44 . 1
82.6
54.1
1 9.7
51 .2
49 .0
88.7
19.9
95.9
37 .6
83.3
90 . 5

64.3
33.1
7 4.9
74.3
25.5
43 . 2
67.6
54.7
27 . 6
18.1
85.4
71 . 2
30 .7
66 . 5
59.2
81 . 4
41 . 7
68.5
76.1
55.0
82 . ]

105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar—
Japan
(Yen)

West
Germany

France

United
Kingdom

(D. mark)

(Franc)

(Pound)

199.89
184.85
178.69
175.09
167.03
167.54
158.61
154.18
154.73
156.47
162.85
162.05

2.4384
2.3317
2.2752
2.2732
2.2277
2.2337
1517
0621
0415
0054
0243

7.4821
7.1575
6.9964
7.2060
7.0967
7.1208
6.9323
6.7215
6.6835
6.5628
6.6206
6.5296

0.7020
0.6994
0.6815
0.6673
0.6574
0.6629
0.6635
0.6729
0.6804
0.7011
0.7023
0.6948

154.83
153.41

rl.8596
2
1.8239

I

I

Japan (yen)

1986
Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov.. .
Dec...
1987
Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...

2

6.2007
6.0761

2

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar

0.6643
0.6545

2

Italy

Canada

Exchange value
of the U.S.
dollar1

(Lira)

(Dollar)

(March 1973=100)

Year
and
month

1986
1,663.14
588.21
548.43
1,559.45
,528.50
1,533.10
1,478.31
1,420.33
1,410.23
1,387.67
1,401.08
1,379.44

Jan....
Feb....
Mar
Apr....
May
June...
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov.. . .
Dec

1.4070
1.4043
1.4009
1.3879
1.3757
1.3899
1.3808
1.3885
1.3872
1.3885
1.3863
1.3801

123.65
118.77
116.05
115.67
113.27
113.77
110.38
107.50
107.15
106.58
107.90
106.54

1.3605
1.3340

101.13
2
99.46

1987
Jan....
Feb
Mar....
Apr
May
June...
July...
Aug....
Sept...
Oct....
Nov.. . .
Dec

1,317.17
1,297.74

2

2

Exchange value of the U.S. dollar
(index: March 1973 = 100)

74

x

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
2
Average for February 1 through 27.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

106



1

80

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes

Net contribution to index

Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

Jan.
1987

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

Nov.
to
Dec.
1986

40.8

r40 .8

p40.9

0.08

0.00

0.09

342

356

359

0.01

-0.11

-0.03

r86 .00

r91.88

P86.06

0 .33

-0.39

56

56

55

0.00

-0.05

rll8.7

r ! 2 1 .6

P122.3

0.34

0.10

r34.17

r35.57

p27 . 7 9

0 .14

0.09

-0.64

128.6

152.3

134.8

0.09

0.50

-0.43

r-12.88

p-6.31

0.02

0.16

rl .20

rl .78

1.23

0.44

0.23

245.09

248.61

264.51

0.20

0.09

0.46

r2,424.9

r2,441.2

p2,444.0

0.09

0.21

0.04

r6.2

r l 2 .4

-0.18

0.32

NA

rl81 .4

rl85.6

pl83.8

0.89

2.32

100,826

rlOl,068

rlOl,293

pl01,741

0 .20

0.18

r2 , 6 0 4 . 3

2,604.2

r2,615.7

p 2 , 5 9 6 .6

0 .00

0.22

125.3

126.0

r l 2 6 .4

pl26.9

0.16

0.09

0.14

r424,511

r425,470

p433,562

NA

0.05

0.42

NA

164.9

165.3

rl66.5

pl66.4

0 .24

0.73

15.2

14.8

15.0

0.19

-0.10

0.00

1 .52

1.51

pi.48

NA

-0.13

-0.40

NA

80.2

r79.2

78.5

p77.9

-0.37

-0.26

7.50

7.50

7.50

7.50

0.00

0.00

0.00

r344,454

r346,749

355,278

p362,123

0.18

0.64

0 .74

16.81

rl6.88

P16.77

NA

0.27

-0.42

NA

133.3

133.5

p l 3 3 .4

0.15

-0.52

0.45

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
40 .7
5. Average weekly initial claims for
unemploy1
ment insurance, State programs (thous.). . .
343
8. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). .
r87.47
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . .
54
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
rl19.7
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
r32.11
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
124.8
36. Change in inventories2 on hand and on order in
1982 dol., smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . r - 1 3 . 6 9
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent)
rO . 0 9
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
237 .36
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil. dol.)
r2,418.2
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent)
r9.7
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
rl79.8
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index
of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . .
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

Dec.
to
Jan.
1987

Dec.
1986

Oct.
1986

Nov.
1986

r l 3 2 .8

NA

NA

15.0

-0.08
0.08
-0.12

NA
-0.26

-0.97

0.47
-0.47

-0.06

-0.32

NOTE: The net c o n t r i b u t i o n of an i n d i v i d u a l component i s t h a t component's share i n the composite movement of the group.
I t is
computed by d i v i d i n g the s t a n d a r d i z e d and weighted change f o r the component by the sum of the weights f o r the a v a i l a b l e components
and d i v i d i n g t h a t r e s u l t by the index s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r .
See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) f o r the weights and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r s .
NA, not a v a i l a b l e ,
p, p r e l i m i nary, r, r e v i s e d , e, e s t i m a t e d .
1

T h i s s e r i e s i s i n v e r t e d i n computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in t h i s s e r i e s i s considered an upward movement.
This s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average ( w i t h weights 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) placed on the t e r m i n a l month of the span.
3
F i g u r e s in the net c o n t r i b u t i o n columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change i s equal (except f o r rounding
d i f f e r e n c e s ) t o the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l components' c o n t r i b u t i o n s plus the t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r .
The t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r
f o r the leading index i s 0 . 1 3 9 ; f o r the c o i n c i d e n t index, - 0 . 1 7 5 ; f o r the l a g g i n g index, 0.018.
2




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
|
20. Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment 1982 dollars, smoothed l

Actual ;
Devidata
ations
for
from
reference curren
cycle
peaks

ipmijmn|mn|iim|iim|imi|iiiii|m

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
YEAR

0. Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment, 1982 dollars, smoothedJ

1

SERIES
20
B I L . DOL.

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

38
39
40

8.1
7.9
4.8

32.20
32.14
31.22

1/86
2/86
3/86

41
42
43

44

7.1
5.3
7.2
8.4

31.92
31 . 3 9
31 . 9 6
32.30

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

45
46
47
48

10.5
10.3
11 . 0
13.6

32.93
32.88
33 .07
33 . 8 6

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

60

32.41

12/86

50

49

Actual
data

for
current
cycle

70
• 38

• 36

• 34

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
8/82
YEAR

40
• 32

SERIES
201
B I L . DOL.

30

41

37.7

32.20

1/86

42
43
44

37.4
33.5
36.5

32.14
31.22
31.92

2/86
3/86
4/86

45
46
47
48

34.2
36.6
38.1
40.8

31.39
31.96
32.30
32.93

5/86
6/86
7/86
8/86

49
50
51
52

40.6
41.4
44.8
38.6

32.88
33.07
33.86
32.41

9/86
10/86
11/86
12/86

• 30

20

• 28

10

• 26

• 24

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

1. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing

CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR

• 3.8

SERIES 21
HOURS

21. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing

Actual
data

4.5

4.0

39
40

3 .4
3.4

2/86
3/86

• 3.6

41
42
43
44

3.4
3 .4
3.3
3.4

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

• 3.4

45
46
47
48

3.5
3 .5
3.5
3.5

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

49
50

3 ,5
3 .6

12/86
1/87

• 3.2

• 3.0

• 2.8

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
SPEC.
FROM
YEAR
DATA
TROUGH
12/82

• 2.6
SERIES 21
HOURS
3.0

2.5

11111111111

-6

niiilMniliiiiiliiiii[iiiiiliiiii[iiiiiliiiii)i

0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30 + 36+42+48
Months from reference troughs

1

2.0

38
39
40

.1
.1
.1

3 .4
3 .4
3 .4

2/86
3/86
4/86

41
42
43
44

I .1
.0
.1
1 .2

3 .4
3 .3
3 .4
3 .5

5/86
6/86
7/86
8/86

45
46
47
48

1 .2
1 .2
1 .2
1 .2

3 .5
3 .5
3 .5
3 .5

9/86
10/86
11/86
12/86
1/87

• 2.4

-

-0.2

-J -0.4

-6

Hi iiiiiliiinliiiiiliiiiiliiiiiliiiiiliiinliiiiilini
0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30+36+42+48
Months from specific troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the January 1987 issue.
series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span. Specific trough dates used, however, are those for the actual monthly series.
Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series.

1
This
2

108



G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
,,,,,|M,M

MIII|MIII|MIII|MIII|IIIII|IMII|I

11111,11111

Deviations
from
re erence
peaks

73. Indijstrial pr oduction, durable
ma lufactur 3S
1

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Per

+ 20
1970

J * *

+ 15

-

• 130

+10

• 125

+5

• 120

Q

h

39
40

13.2
11.5

128.7
126.8

2/86
3/86

41
42
43
44

12.7
11.7
11.0
12.0

128.1
127 .0
126.2
127.4

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

45
46
47
48

12.1
12.7
12.7
13.1

127.5
128.1
128.1
128.6

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

49
50

13.7
14.2

129.3
129.8

12/86
1/87

SERIES
73
1977=100

o

/

• 105
-10

w/

• 100

Vr

-

35

• 130

30

• 125

25

• 120

20

• 115

33.8
31.8

128.7
126 . 8

2/86
3/86

41
42
43
44

33.2
32.0
31.2
32.4

128.1
127.0
126.2
127.4

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

45
46
47
48

32.5
33.2
33.2
33.7

127.5
128.1
128.1
128.6

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

49
50

34.4
34.9

129.3
129.8

12/86
1/87

for

• 110

-15

-

• 105

• 100

-J 0

-20

Percent

i

-

w7
1
*3r
/
-

#

39
40

15.1
14.2

128.7
127.7

2/86
3/86

• 130
+15

41
42
43
44

15.9
16.2
17.4
17.8

129.6
129.9
131.2
131.7

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

• 125
+10

45
46
47
48

18.2
17.5
18.3
18.8

132.2
131 . 4
132.3
132.8

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

• 120

49
50

19.4
20.3

133.5
134.5

12/86
1/87

• 115

-

-5

• 105

-

-10

/
-15

35

• 140
30

25

20

SERIES
74
1977=100

• 110

/A

0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36+42+48

40

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
7/82
YEAR

0

Llilillllll iiiiiliiiiiliiiiiliimliiiiiliiiiiliimliiiii i

Percent

• 135

+5

/

/ 1975

74. Industrial production, nondurable
manufactures

• 145

+ 20

1970 * f t ^ r T

Meda
in J C ^ ^ ^ T ^

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
7/81
SERIES
74
1977=100

C.L.L

f

10

• 95

74. Industrial production, nondurable
manufactures
Q

-6

current
cycle

15

39
40

Actual
data

ations
from
specific
troughs

• 110
1975

\BP/V

\

-I

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM
AND
SPEC.
ACTUAL
YEAR
TROUGH
DATA
11/82

• 115

•

73. Industrial production, durable
manufactures

SERIES
73
1977=100

| C,C,C |
n
u

• I • • • 1 1 1 • • 1 1 « 1 1 • • • • I • • • • • 1 1 1 1 • 11 • •fl• • I • • • 1 • 111 Devi-

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
7/81
YEAR

• 100

43
44

22.9
22.0

128.7
127 .7

2/86
3/86

45
46
47
48

23.8
24.1
25.3
25.8

129.6
129.9
131 .2
131.7

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

49
50
51
52

26.3
25.5
26.4
26.8

132.2
131.4
132.3
132.8

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

53
54

27 . 5
28 .5

133 .5
1 3 4 .5

12/86
1/87

• 130

• 125

15

• 120

10

• 115

• 110

-J 0
illllllllllllllllllllilllllllllllllllllllllll

-6

Months from reference troughs

0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54
Months from specific troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the January 1987 issue.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars..
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars....
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures

Series
number

604

Current issue
"umbers)
Charts
Tables
(page

56

92

Historical
data
issue date)

Series
description
(*)

12/85

56

58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973

22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38

65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76

11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
11/86
11/86
11/86
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85

20
37
37
37
23
23
37
37
37
37
37

616
55

56
22

92
65

12/85
10/86

56
39

B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans-See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building—See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures-See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving

Canada See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment- See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded ..
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change
See notes at end of index.

110




93
94

33
33

72
72

1/87
1/87

35
35

29
76

13,25
24

67
67

6/86
12/86

24
12

14
12
13

33
12,23
23

72
65
65

12/85
6/86
6/86

34
21
21

101
72
112
295

15,35
35
32
46

73
73
71
82

6/86
6/86
6/86
12/86

32
32
32
26

82
84

20
20

64
64

12/86
12/86

14
14

97
11
965
333

24
24
37
48

66
66
75
86

12/86
12/86
10/86
7/86

22
22
22
51

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

1/86
10/86
10/86

5
26
26

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87

9
9
9
9

920
920c
951
940
9

10
39
36
11
23

60
74'
60
66

1/87
1/87
1/86
1/86
10/85

5
5
21

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

6/86
6/86
6/86

32
32
32

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/86
11/86

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

10/86

46

346

49

88

10/86

46

340

49

87

8/86

5

341
348
349

49
50
50

87
88
88

8/86
9/85
9/85

5
53
53

9/86

920
920c
940

10
39
11

930
930c

10
39

60

1/87
1/87

914
915
917
916
910
910c

11
11
11
11
10
39

60
60
60
60
60

1/86
1/86
1/86
1/86
1/87
1/87

60
60'

1/87
1/87
1/86

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP.
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars.
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change.
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income.
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change.
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

Debt—See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production ....
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans.
Deliveries, vendor performance..
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components.
New orders, manufacturing...
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices.
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks,
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components.
Disposable personal income—See income.

Series
number

Current issue
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tables

29 13,25

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

6/86

9
69

23
24

66
67

10/85

21
17

248
87
89
249
28
334

25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22

67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65

10/86
11/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
6/86
7/86
5/86
12/86

40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

6/86
6/86
9/86
1/87

33
33
33
34

320
322
58

49
49
22

84,95
11/85

49
49
20

525

53

90

12/85

55

20

12,23

66

12/86

21

10
116

23
34

66
73

12/86
2/87

21
35

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

6/86
6/86
6/86

32
32
32

66
113
95
39
111
33

35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32

73
72
73
72
72
71

6/86
6/86
9/86
1/87
8/86
9/86

33
33
33
34
31
31

98
331

28
48

69
85

6/86
7/86

51
50

10/86

557

12/86

517
543
580
578
577
525

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
91
90

11/85
12/85
12/85
5/86
10/85
12/85

55
55
56
56
56
55

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

7/85
1/87
7/85
7/85
8/86
10/86
10/86

17
15
17
15
5
43
43

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

1/87
1/86

34
17

965
951
974
963
966

37
36
38
36
37

10/86
1/86
12/85
9/86
12/86

22
5
37
5
12

962
975
952
950
964

36
38
36
36
37

12/86
12/85
1/86
1/86
2/87

8
37
5
5
15

971
970
960
972
967

38
38
37
38
37

12/85
11/86
12/85
12/85
1/86

37
23
37
37
25

973
976
978
977
968
961

38
38
38
38
37
36

75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
2/87
8/86

37
37
37
37
25
5

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Earnings -See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagncultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls, Dl ...
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 1619 years of age...
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagncultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration..
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from..
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts..
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense .
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.

Current issue
Series
number

(page

Charts

441
578
577

51
55
55

48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1

39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16

961

36

numbers

)
Tables

89
91
91
6l'
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74

Historical
data
(issue date)

2/87
5/86
10/85
9/86
9/86
8/86
12/85
8/86
9/86
2/87
8/86
2/87
4/86
2/87
12/86
12/86
8/86
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
4/86
2/87
8/86

Series
description
(*)

9
56
56
5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9

8/86

9/85
94
213*
917

33
40
11

72
80
60

1/87
10/86
1/86

35
38
5

10/86

1/87

49

20

63

10/86

14

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
12/86

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

263
262
265

81
81
83

565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

91
81
81
83
81
81

11/86
11/86
11/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

311
68

48
30

84
70

10/86
10/86

49
28

50
50b
50c
200

19,40

63,80

10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
8/86
10/86
10/86
10/86

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

564

91

107
49
310
217

31
20
48
40

80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80

46
60

16
16

61
61

4/86
2/87

9
9

1

12,16

8/86

5

961
21

36
16

61
77
74
61

8/86
8/86

'V5

39'
40

200b
200c

H
Help wanted advertising in newspapers
Help wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

C u r r e n t lssue
(page

numbers

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

Series
number

Charts

)
Tables

28
29
89
249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

6/86
6/86
10/86
11/86

310

48

84

10/86

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/86
11/86

46
46

24

24
40
40

I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
lnterest.net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components .
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany

64

30,47

70,83

10/86

46

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

88
73
82

10/86
9/86
12/86

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

83
80
80

12/86
10/86
10/86

26
11
11

227

40

80

10/86

340

49

87

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

8/86
8/86
8/86
12/86
12/86
10/86
9/86
9/86

5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11

51c
51
108
282

39
14,19
31
45

63
71
82

9/86
9/86
9/86
11/86

11
30
47

283
284

47
45

83
82

11/86
11/86

47
47

285
348
349

47
50
50

83
88
88

11/86
9/85
9/85

47
53
53

53
13
335

19
23
48

63
65
85

9/86
6/86
7/86

11
21
51

76
75
557
73
74
47

24
22
54
20
20
14,20,58

12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86

12
12
13
12
12
12

966
47c

37
39

67
65
91
63
63
63,94
78
75

12/86
12/86

12

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

25
25

5
962
45
288
289

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

12/86
12/86
4/86
12/86
12/86

8
8
8
47
47

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86

12/86
2/87
9/85
9/85
9/85
1/87
2/87
2/87
7/86

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

733
736
737
738
732
320
735

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
8/86
6/85

60
61
61
61
60
49
61

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

58
58
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94

12/86
10/85
9/86
10/85
10/85
10/85
12/86
10/85

59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

See notes at end of index.




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International comparisons—Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value
i
Manufacturing and trade, change in book value
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars.
Total, current dollars ...
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.

Current issue

Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93

8/86
8/86
12/85
8/86
12/85
11/86
11/86
8/86
12/85
12/85
8/86
12/85
8/86
11/86
11/86
12/85
8/86
8/86

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

255

44

82

11/86

44

250
251

44
47

82
83

11/86
11/86

44
44

30
245
247
559
65
77
915
71
31
70
975

26,42
42
47
54
27
15,27
11
27
26
27
38

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76

9/86
11/86
11/86
7/85
1/87
11/86
1/86
10/85
1/87
11/86
12/85

40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37

36

13,26

68

9/86

17

78

27

68

1/87

17

38

26

68

1/87

17

97
11
965
914
9

24
24
37
11
23

66
66
75
60
66

12/86
12/86
10/86
1/86
10/85

22
22
22
5
21

69

24

67

8/86

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

11/86
11/86
10/86
11/86

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

10/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
1,1/86
11/86

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

66

5/86

15

24

23

66

5/86

15

20
10
100
61
970

12,23
23
24
24
38

66
66
67
67
76

12/86
12/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

21
21

652
651

57
57

93
93

8/86
8/86

57
57

23
23

J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
See notes at end of index.

112




68
63

30
30

70
70

10/86
8/86

28
28

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
70
70

9/86
9/86
8/86

28
28
28

930
930c
952

10
39
36

60

1/87
1/87
1/86

5

74

5

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change.
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans—See Credit.

Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military—See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply Ml, constant dollars
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields

Series . (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description

C)
5

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
31

60
74
72
71

1/87
1/87
1/86
12/85
1/87

78

27

68

1/87

38
84
8

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

1/87
12/86
5/86

917

11

60

1/86

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

1/87
6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
8/86
9/86
9/86
9/85
9/85

29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

5/86
5/86
5/86

15
15
15

20

12,23

66

12/86

21

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

12/86
1/87
5/86
5/86

21
15
15
15

964
971

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

2/87
12/85

15
37

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

10/86
10/86
10/86
11/86

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

11/85
12/85
10/85

55
55
58

580

54

91

12/85

49

20

63

10/86

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
70
88
88
64
64
61

9/86
9/86
10/86
10/86
12/86
12/86
8/86

28
28
52
52
14
14
5

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

mi
2/87
2/87

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

12/86
12/86
12/85

48
48
56

5
34
29

17
14
15

N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving.
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Seriestltle

(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials.
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index ..
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl..
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl.
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices See Price indexes.
Producers'durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production - See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability Cl
J
proj|ts
Corporate profits after tax

With IVA and CCAd), constant dollars
With IVA and CCAd|, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAd,
With IVA and CCAdj. percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing....
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAd] to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors'income with IVA and CCAd|
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd), percent of
national income

Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAd)
Rental income of persons with CCAd,. percent

Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

,
number Charts

20
10
100
61
970
90

12,23

320
322

49
49

23
24
24
38
17

n mh rO

Historical

Series
descriptio

Tables

(issue date)

C)

66
66
67
67
76
62

12/86
12/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
2/87

21
21

84,95

8/86
8/86

84

23
9
49
49

48
48
29

84
84
70

10/86
10/86
8/86

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
6/86

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
23

'37'

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

'25'

98
99

28
13,28

25

69
69

6/86
6/86

51
25

11/85
2/87
8/86

25
25
28

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
1/87

37
37
37
55
35

19
968
26

13,28

37
29

69
75
70

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing.
Retail sales constant dollars
Retail sales current dollars

'23'

311
310
26

28

(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

10/86

Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus-See Government.

Series
number

""** "umum;
Charts Tables

249

47

59
54

22
22

213

40

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

11/86

65
65

9/86
9/86

20
20

10/86

22
22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

8/86
11/86
10/85
12/85
11/86
9/86
9/86

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86

26
48
48
48
48

98
99
588

28
13,28

54

69
69
91

6/86
6/86
7/85

51
25
17

967
23

37'
28

79
75
69

i/86
1/86

25
25

19
968

13,28

37

69
75

11/85
2/87

25
25

Treasury bill rate

114

Treasury bond yields

115

34
34

72
73

2/87
2/87

35
35

15,18

36

62
61
61
74

2/87
2/87
12/86
12/86

9
9
8
8

51
51
51
51

89
89
89
89

2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87
2/87

9
9
9
9
9

24
14,22

22
38
15,27

U

370
358
916

50
50
11

88
88
60

10/86
10/86
1/86

52
52
5

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

9/86
9/86
9/86
9/86

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

12/86
12/86
12/85
12/85
11/85
1/86
9/86

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

10/86
11/86

26
47

11/86

967
23
284

37

28
45

79
75
69
82

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
" e P - " a n t e d advertising ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
' n i t i a ' c l a i m s fo,r ""employment insurance, Dl

"^A

91
60
5
962

%

16
12,16

MflKnS?anrtn«Pr

444

TotaTuneSJed

37

18,51

62,89

44
45
43

18
18
18
54
21
21

62
62
62
91
64
64

2/87
4/86
2/87
7/85
1/87
1/87

9
8
9
15
15
15

31
31
12 21

-

71
71
64

8/86
9/86
1/86

30
30
17

61
77
74

8/86

5

36

8/86

"5

15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment.'..!'..'.."."..".'.'.'.".!'..'..'.".!".".'!
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable
g° o d s industries
M Durable goods industries, change
U n i t e d Kl

561
96
25

"gdom-See International comparisons.
v

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio

107
108

Vendor

32

P

erformance

-

slo er deliveries

"

MI

1/86
1/86
11/86

10/86

25
25
47

Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
Whotesale (producer) prices-See Price indexes.

Diffusion index

961

NOTE: CCAdj. capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. " M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,
106,111) (M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order, book value
(M).-Source2
(26,68)

(18,51,62,89)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source3
(17,62)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) ( M ) - S o u r c e l
(11,60)

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(12,16,61)

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)

28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)

29. index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

114



30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1
(19,63)

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1
(19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Sourcel
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars(Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)

63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book
value (E0M).-Source2
(27,68)
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM) .—
Source 4
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4

- Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)

91

(33,72)
93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4

(33,72)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (E0M).-Source2
(21,64)

(35,73)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufac-

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)

turing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source

98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)

2
(24,67)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel
(24,67)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(EOM).—Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in curBank of New York
(15,35,73)
rent dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufac4
(31,71)
tures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manuand 4
(31,71)
factures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
and 4
(13,31,71)
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M) .—
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
4
(35,73)
on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source I I Q Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
2
(27,68)
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)

79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80.

81.

82.
84.
85.
86.
87.

\\\

I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Sourcel
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
42-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).-Source 1
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)

972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua- 112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
series may not be reproduced without written
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69) n 3 < Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
Source 4
(32,72)
Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust- 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
ments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
bills (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
series may not be reproduced without written
Source 1
(29,70)
n5
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacSource 4
(20,64)
116> Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
turing and trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Trea(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
sury
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
4
(20,64)
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 117<
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturGross private nonresidential fixed investment in 118 Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
ing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
(34,72)




115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)

243.

Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

245.

Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1

247.

Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

248.

(46,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).—Source 1

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)

295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
298.
Government
surplus
or
deficit
(Q).—Source
1
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
(46,83)

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249.
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the 250.
source.)
(38,76)

Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source

II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

1

310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product

251.

Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)

252.

Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q)-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

253.

Imports of goods and services in current dollars

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

255.

Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

256.

Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

257.

Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

II—A. National Income and Product

(40,80)

(47,83)

Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel

(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Sourcel
(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Source 1

(44,82)

(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)

(Q).-Source 1

(48,84)

311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source3
(49,84)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).—Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

260.

220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)

Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

261.

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)

Government purchases of goods and services in
1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel
(43,81)

262.

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

263.

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M) .-Source 3
(49,87)

265.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q). -Source 1
(41,80)

266.

State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q) —Sou rce 1
(43,81)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars

267.

State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

268.

State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

(Q).-Source 1

(41,80)

232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

280.
282.

283.

284.

238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

285.

Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

116



334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source3
(48,85)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)

Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 (45,82)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).-Source 3 (50,88)
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm busi1
(45,82)
ness sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
370.
Index
of
output
per
hour,
all
persons,
business
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)

II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)

286.

Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

287.

Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
tion and capital consumption adjustments as a
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3
(51,89)
Net interest (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

288.

441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . —
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II—D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source
1
(52,90)

570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) . Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M) .-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . —
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

501. Federal Government receipts ( Q ) . -Source 1
(52,90)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Istituto
Centrale di Statistics (Rome)
(58,94)

II—E- U.S. International Transactions

510. State and local government surplus or deficit ( Q ) —
Source 1
(52,90)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
(56,92)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Direc- 612. General imports (M).-Source 2
torate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Depart
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analyment of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
sis
(56,92)
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Eco(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
nomic Analysis
(53,90)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense,
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptrol(57,93)
ler), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)

652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)

557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book
value (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




(57,93)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)

II—F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation

(13,28,59,69,96)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . —
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. united Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M) —Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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