Full text of Business Conditions Digest : February 1983
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert G. Dederick, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication a r e Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D.| Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F-Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: PO2-523-G541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the bacK of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department of
Commerce
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Norman Frumkin, Office of Management and Budget
Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Adrian W. Throop, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles|A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S* Department of Commerce
ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecaisters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysts of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on ih.e list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 19$8, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additioas
to the report were series from thenational income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations an'd intentions. The, composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic,
$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic, $6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence
Most of tti0 data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report,
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have foeeti singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cycltqal movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavipr, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
• economic activity.
Other Economic Measures prov de additional ir" formation for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal,, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign Countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, UiS. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents,
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Ni
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
BCI»
FEBRUARY 1 9 8 3
Data Through January
Volume 23, Number 2
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
AT
Bl
B2
B3
B4
87
CT
C3
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart
Table
10
12
14
15
60
—
—
—
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment .
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
16
19
21
23
26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
36
—
39
74
77
—
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds
for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through April 1, 1985.
BCII
PART IL
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
AND PRODUCT
GNPand Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNPand National Income
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
,1
48
49
84
87
,
51
89
•.
,.
52
53
90
90
56
57
92
93
58
59
59
94
95
96
,
,
,.
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
„.
,
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue},
QCD ^nd Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue]
B. Current Adjustment Factors
,
„.
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
,
98
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1983 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators January 1983 issue}
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
106
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
110
Titles and Sources of Series
114
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamrn, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to in-
Changes in this issue are as follows:
corporate recent find-
1. New seasonal adjustment factors have been computed
for 23 series using the X-ll variant of the Census Method II
seasonal adjustment program. New factors are shown in appendix B for all of these series except series 9, 10, 112,
732c, 733c, and 735c-738c.
ings of economic
research, newiy available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept,
Series
number
5
9
10
13
15
33
72
112
517
525
543
570
Beginning date for
new factors
July 1982
January 1982
January 1981
November 1982
I Q 1979
December 1982
January 1983
January 1983
December 1982
November 1982
December 1982
January 1983
Series
number
580
604
606
614
616
732c
733c
735c
736c
737c
738c
Beginning date for
new factors
January 1983
January 1983
January 1983
April 1982
April 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other ser/es, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
2. The composite indexes of cyclical indicators (series
910, 914-917, 920, 930, and 940) have been revised for the
period 1948 to date to reflect improvements in composition,
historical revisions in source data, and routine updating of
statistical factors. These revisions result from a continuing review of the composite indexes by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis.
Improvements in composition. Several components of the
leading and lagging indexes have been replaced with components
more appropriate for measuring current cyclical changes in the
economy. In the leading index, two new components were added
and two were dropped. New series 99, change in sensitive
materials prices (which includes producer price index components for selected crude and intermediate materials and spot
market price index components for raw industrial materials)
(Continued on page iv.)
The March issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on April 1.
composition,
HI
replaced former series 92, change in sensitive crude materials prices. New series 111, change in credit outstanding (business and consumer borrowing)
replaced series 104, change in total liquid assets. In the lagging index, series 77, ratio of constant-dollar inventories1 to sales, manufacturing and
trade, replaced series 70, manufacturing and trade inventories'in 1972 dollars. In addition, series 62, labor cost per un,it: of output, was recalculated to include in the lagging index the deviations of the actual data from their trend. Series 72, commercial and industrial loans outstanding, was
recalculated to include commercial paper of nonfinancial companies and was replaced in the lagging index by its deflated version, new series 101.
(The deflator is the producer price index for all commodities.) Series 109, average prime rate charged by banks, was split into two segments (19481965 and 1966 to date) in the composite index calculations so that the current period could be standardized more accurately.
The composition of two of the leading indicator subgroup ^indexes was affected also. In series 915, inventory investment and purchasing, the new
change in sensitive materials prices (series 99) replaced the former sensitive prices component (series 92). In series 917, money and financial
flows, the new change in credit outstanding (series 111) replaced
total private borrowing (series 110). Series 913, marginal employment adjustments,
has not been revised because key source data are not available1.
Revisions in source data. The composite indexes have beejn revised to incorporate historical revisions in source data for the components.
Updating of statistical factors. The statistical factors used in computing the composite indexes have been recalculated to cover longer time
spans. These weights, standardization factors, and trend factors are shown in appendix G (pp. 108-109).
The diffusion indexes (series 950-952) based on the composite index components have been revised beginning with 1948. Historical data for the
revised composite and diffusion indexes are shown in appendixiC. Current data on the previous basis for the three major'composite indexes are shown
in appendix G (p. 106).
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical
Indicators Division.
3. The series on net business formation (series 12), which was discontinued at the end of 1981 because of the unavailability of two of Its components, has been recomputed for the period 1948 to date. Data for 1948 through 1978 are based on the original components, and data for 1979 to date
are based on two original components {new business incorporations and number of business failures) and newly available public utility information.
Further information concerning this series may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
4. A new series on change in sensitive crude and intermediate materials prices (series 98) is introduced in this issue. This series consists
of month-to-month percent changes in the producer price component of the series from which series 99 is computed. (See item 2, above.)
Further information concerning this series may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
5. The series on new private housing units started (series 28) has been revised for the period 1980 to date to reflect a new seasonal adjustment by the source agency.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics
Division.
6. The series on manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (series 57) has been revised for the period 1967 to date. This revision reflects the incorporation of new sources of data for more recent years and improvements in deflation procedures for the manufacturing and merchant
wholesaler segments.
Series 77 (constant-dollar ratio of manufacturing and jtrade inventories to sales) has been revised over the sane period.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National
Income and Wealth Division.
7. Revised data on U.S. money supply (series 85, 102 ,j and 104-108) art; shown in this issue for the period October 1981 to date. These revisions reflect the incorporation of annual seasonal adjustment and benchmark changes and minor definitional changes by 1the source agency. When
completed, these changes will extend back to 1959. Revised data for the period prior to October 1981 will be shown in a subsequent issue of BCD.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, System, Division of Research
and Statistics, Banking Section,
8. The producer price indexes (series 331-334) have peen revised for the period 1978 to date to reflect the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors by the source agency.
Further information concerning these revisions may be1obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices
and Living Conditions, Division of Industrial Prices and Ppice Indexes.
9. Series 7 and 8 (manufacturers' new orders for durable goods and for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars) and series 36 (change in
inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars) have been revised for the period 1978 to date on the basis of revijsed producer price indexes used
as deflators. (See item 8, above.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be, obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical
Indicators Division.
10. Seasonally adjusted consumer price index data (series 320c and 322) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1967 to date to
reflect the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices
and Living Conditions, Division of Consumer Prices.
NOTE: Series for which CPI (series 320) data are used.as deflators reflect the above revision as follows:
Series 53—1967 to date;
Series 105 and 106—October 1981 to date'; and
Series 341-1 Q 1982 to date.
The revised CPI data for earlier years will he incorporated into series 105, 106, and 341 at a later date.
11. Appendix C contains historical data for series 12, 62, 72, 98, 99, 101, 111, 910, 913-917, 920, 930, 940, and 950-952.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
This report is organized into two major parts. adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
Part 0, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time which contain considerable variation due to the
series which have been found to conform well to number of working or trading days in each month. of expansion and contraction in various economic
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of As used in this report, the term "seasonal processes that show up as major fluctuations in ageconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday gregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical adjustments where they have been made.
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
Most
of
the
series
in
this
report
are
presented
in
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these business cycles of historical experience have been
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are the official figures released by the source definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters agencies. However, for the special purposes of this duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
but which do not conform well enough to business report, a number of series not ordinarily published economic systems, conditions, policies, and
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
few exceptions: Four series which are included in seasonally adjusted basis.
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzpart I are also shown in part II to complete the
ing current economic conditions and prospects is
systematic presentation of certain sets of data, MCD Moving Averages
the
cyclical indicators approach. This approach
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
Month-to-month changes in a series are often identifies certain economic time series as tending
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
sections relate to prices, labor force, government cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro- movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
and defense-related activities, and international priate span over which to observe cyclical indicators have been selected and analyzed by
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) NBER in a series of studies published between
transactions and comparisons.
It is the smallest span of months for which the 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
The ttwo parts are further divided into sections
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
shown iboth in charts and in tables. Most charts
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. staff. The present format and content of part I of
begin with 1956, but those for the composite
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of BCD are based on the results of that study.
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two- panel
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a Section A. Composite Indexes and
format which covers only the period since 1971.
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 Their Components
Except for section F in part It, charts contain
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
shading which indicates periods of recession in
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated acgeneral business activity. The tables contain data
MCD of 1.
cording
to six major characteristics: Economic
for only the last few years. The historical data for
significance,
statistical adequacy, consistency of
The
charts
in
this
report
generally
include
the various time series are contained in the 1977
centered MCD moving averages for those series timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
conformity to business expansions and
In addition to the charts and tables described with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
adjusted
data
are
also
plotted
to
indicate
their
above, each issue contains a summary table which
variation about the moving averages and to provide (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
was developed and used to assess each series by all
observations
for the most recent months.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
Reference
Turning
Dates
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
information of analytical interest. An index appears
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
the series numbers used are for identification Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
purposes onfy and do not reflect precise mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relationships or order. However, atl series NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
the range 1 to 199.
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basts for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
Seasonal Adjustments
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated.
groups and combine those with similar timing
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are weights. Because they use series of historically
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations changed as a result of revisions in important tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
resulting primarily from normal differences in economic time series. The dates shown in this (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
weather conditions and from various institutional publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has of duplication, composite indexes give more
are usually accounted for by the seasonal designated turning points for the 1973-1975 reces- reliable signals over time than do any of the
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday sion and the 1980 recession.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
1
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
x. Economic
\Process
Cyclical X.
Timing
N.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real Income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V,,
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES,COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)
New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
Investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
< 3 series)
Real money
supply
Consumption
and trade
Backlog of
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(5 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
i
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(u)
(8 series)
(4 series)
Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
Trade
(1 series)
(3 series)
(2 mtes)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 *«rto$)
Bank reserves
(2 ssrias)
1 nterest rates
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(2 wrfes)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
1 nterest rates
(4 mles)
Outstanding
debt
(3$»rtos)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
{6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(2 series)
R*al money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 $«ries)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Profits
(2 series)
Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and tabor share
(4 series)
Velocity of
money
U series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\
v
Economic
\Process
Cyclical^
Timing
\.
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
IV.
III.,
CONSUMPTION, FIXED
CAPITAL
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
INVESTMENT
DELIVERIES
(18 series)
(13 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
Consumption
and trade
(3 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Unfilled orders
(1 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
LAGGING (Lg) J
Comprehensive
INDICATORS
employment
(40 series)
)
(3, series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(£> series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)
'
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series an; prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period can
be determined by inspection of the charts, where the
1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession are
shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference
cycle chronology.
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May f 54, April '58,
February '61, and November 7 0 ) . Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
This section covers 111 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
including the 22 indicators used in the series.
This section also records rates of change for the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 rates of change for the same aggregates are
series at all turns (of the 19,15 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the; change
in
the physical volume of inventories held by
This part is divided into six sections which cover
private business. The former include all private
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
tenant or oyvner occupancy. Net purchases of used
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
goods are also included.
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
Government purchases of goods and services
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
(A4)
is the compensation of government employees
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
labor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefor^ deducted. More detail on U.S.
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
income. The four major components of the gross residents! of the United States. Thus, it measures
national product—personal consumption the factor costs of the goods and services proexpenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving,
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market major expenditure components of GNP
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section 6. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The Important data on price movements include
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these Series are the quarterly price indexes from
personal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably
less personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
Disposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedof personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business product, pata on both levels and percent changes are
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1971.
The' group of series on wages and productivity
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates ,of change for most of these measures.
cluded.
Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. international Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with Which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S, business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Ger
many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the cor
responding U.^>. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in ,' the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1971) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
(Wov.)
-(fi/Jar.)
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over —•
3- or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections. ;
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title
Timing
classification
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Nov.
to
Dec.
1932
Average
1981
i 1982
2dQ
1982
3d Q
1982
4th Q
1982
Nov.
1982
Dec.
1982
Jan.
1983
3d Q
to
Dec.
Jan.
1983
1982
4th Q
1982
3.6
0.6
-1.0
0.7
-2.0
-2.2
2.0
-2.3
-3.3
3dQ
I. CYCLICAL (NDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910. Twelve leading indicators ..
920. Four coincident indicators .
930. Six lagging indicators
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments ...
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows
L.L.L
c.c.c
1967=100
do. .
Lg.Lg.Li
do. .
L.L.L
L.L.L
L,L,L
L.LL
L,L,L
do. .
do. .
do. .
do. .
do. .
140.
146.0
122.4
1137.
'136.2
'123.0
136.15
138.
125.
137.5
135.
122.6
140.3
132.2
118.6
140.
132.
118.
141.2
132.0
116.
'93.0
107.
1O0.9
97.9
122.
NA
105.0
97.4
NA
122.9
NA
105.0
97.0
92.8
122.7
NA
104.
93.
123.8
NA
106.
97.5
NA
122.6
N,
106.2
97.5
98.
122.5
NA
107.0
96.6
NA
122.
146,
132.
115,
0.8
-0.2
-1.2
108
98.
0.8
-0 .,'9
NA
0,3
NA
0.9
1.9
NA
2.4
-0.6
1.4
1.0
0.9
NA
1.9
-0.9
NA
-1.0
2,1
0.
NA
4.5
NA
NA
- o . ;i
0.
NA
-5.3
NA
NA
-0.3
-0.1
NA
-0.3
NA
NA
125.
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B1. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . . .
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 .
2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 . . .
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)
3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv.4)2 .
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2
L,L,L
L.C.L
L.L.L
L.C.L
U,L
L,Lg,U
Hours
do. ..
Percent. . . .
Thousands.
Percent. . . .
do. ..
39.8
2.8
3.2
446
1.6
1.3
38.9
2.3
NA
578
MA
NA
39.1
2
HA
56
NA
NA
39.0
2.
NA
59
NA
NA
38.9
2.3
NA
599
NA
NA
38.9
2.3
NA
616
NA
NA
38.9
2.3
NA
531
NA
NA
39.
2.
N,
50
NA
NA
13*8
NA
NA
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed2
46. Help-wanted advertising
L,Lg,U
Llg,U
Ratio
1967=100..
0.429
119
0.243
36
0.249
0.211
78
0.198
79
0.195
0.205
0.216
c.oio
169.99
97,030
91,105
25,481
166.13
96,125
89,619
23,882
167.25
96,329
90 ,029
24,179
L65.79
96,192
89,371
23,676
163.98
95,705
88,721
23,098
163.43
95,670
88,750
23,081
164.14
95,682
88,535
22,975
166.0
95,691
88,874
23,113
57.06
57.25
57.01
56.5'
56.57
56.50
6'. 4
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments.
42, Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
•41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction ..
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2
u.c.c
u,cx
C,C,C
L,C,U
A.r.,bil. hrs.
Thousands.
U,Lg,U
Percent
58.28
56.46
-0.2
-0.5
"0.07
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Total unemployed (inverted4)
43. Unemployment rate, total ^inverted4)2
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-ratefinv.4)7' .
*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) ,
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4}2 ,
L,Lg,U
L,L9,U
L,Lg,U
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
Thousands.
Percent. . . .
do. ..
Weeks
Percent. . . .
8,273' 10,678 10,369 11,025 11,8 39 11,906 12,036 11,446
9.7
10.0
7.6»
9.4
10.8
10."
10.7
10.
4.6
3.4!
4.5
4.
5.. 1
5.0
5.2
4.5
17.5
13. 7
15.6
16.1
19.
1:
18.0
17.3
1
4.1
4.2
3.3
4.3
2.1
3.2
4.1
3.0
C.CX
A.r., bil.dol.
. .do. ..
1502.6 1476.0 1478.4 1481.1 1473.9
1242.0 1248.2 1251.7 1248.2 1251.1 1252.4 1257.4 1255.
1069.1 1066.3 1072.7 1064.7 1061.6 1062.3 1066.1 1067.5
do. . .
do. ..
a. 4
0.011 -0.038 -0.013
0.
1.3
-10,3
1.1
0.
0.4
0.6
-0.9
-0.1
-0,,7
-2.1
-1.1
-0.5
-0.7
-2.4
-0.04
-0.2,4
-0.44
-1.1
™q.i
0.2
-4 .0
-0.2
4,9
0.4
0.5
-7.8
0.1
-6.3
-0.6
-0.2
-5.9
-0.3
-7.4
-0.7
-0.4
-8.7
-0.8
P.4
0.4
-0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-C.7
-0.5
0.2
-0.3
-2.6
-2.2
0.6
0.3
-2.2
-4.1
-0.5
-1.4
-1.5
-2.1
NA
-2.3
4.5
4.7
10.9
0.43
1.3
3
-1.7
-2.3
0.4
•C.35
»3.4
6
-2.6
-3.2
-6.7
2.84
-0.6
2
-0.9
"0.5
0.6
-1.1
-0.9
NA
NA
0.9
0.1
0.4
-1.1
-1.1
0.6
0.
••1.2
a.
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. GNP in 1972 dollars
52. Personal income in 1972 dollars
•51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars .
53. Wages and salaries in mining, rnfg., and construction, 1972 dollars
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs. ..
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB2
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA2 . . . .
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB2 .
c.c.c
c.c.c
do. . .
c.c.c
do. ..
230.2
216.2
219.4
213.7
208.9
208.5
208.9
211.6
0.2
1.3
cxx
ccc
1967=100..
do. ..
151.p
140.5
164.8
138.6
124.7
156.2
661.5
139.4
126.1
155.5
663.2
138.2
124.8
156.4
665.1
135.2
119.7
155.6
655.8
134.8
119.3
155.2
135.0
119.4
155.5
136.2
120.9
156.3
'0.1
0.1
0.2
0.9
1.3
0.5
78.4
76
79.'9
69.8
NA
68.9
70.3
71
69.6
69.7
69
68.1
67.6
NA
65.8
do. . .
C,L,L
C,C,C
A.r.,bil.dol.
L.C.U
Percent.
L.C.U
B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 do).
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods2
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance2 ©
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars . . . . . . . .
55. Personal consumption expend., autos
58. Index of consumer sentiment ©
L.L.L
L.L.L
L.L.L
L.L.L
L,Lg,U
L.L.L
cxx
c.cx
Bil.dol. .
do.
do.
.. .do.
Bil. dot., EOP
Percent. .
83.24 74.60 75.48 74.23 72.27 70.61 76.59 80.05
37*41 32.29 3:2.77 32.02 30.98 30.25 32.75 34.28
28.11 28.21 31.28
33.12 29.34 29.90 30.03 28.01
3.22
3.65
-0.14 -1.94 -3.03 -3.38 -0.54 -2.10
308.37 285.08 296.87 286.71 285.08 281.86 285.08 288.73
37
33
39
41
40
38
41
45
C.LX
C.L.U
U,L,U
LXX
L.L.L
350.^2 339.74
Bil.dol
. .do. . . . 159. P8 152.02
1967=100...
14 7.9 142.6
Mil. dol
86,566 89,114
....do. . . . 44,910 44,509
A.r., bil.dol.
67,.2
70.7
IQ1966=100
68.0
L.L.L
LrL,L
1967=100...
Number. . . .
34 5.02
154.03
143.5
89,059
44,786
67.8
66.2
341.18
152.30
144.4
89,091
44,236
69.5
66.7
333.68 335.80
149.32 150.26
141.8
141.1
91,439 92,546
4 5,238 45,792
77 „ 5
72,-5
72.1
332.71
NA
149.53
NA
142.0 143.3
91,482 91,575
45,378 45,537
, 8.5
8.3
i 0.4
6.32
i 1.1
-2
71.9
70.4
,-0.3
-2.1
2.5
0*8
-2.2
-2.0
-1.8
2.6
2.3
11.5
8.7
111.1
NA
113.1
NA
-1,7
NA
1.8
NA
-2.4
-2.0
0.1
NA
84. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
118.6
48,435
113.1
NA
114.6 111.8
6,602 45,686
111.9
113.0
48,474
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators —Continued
Percent change
Timing
classification3
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Average
Nov.
2dQ
1982
3d Q
1982
4th Q
1982
Nov.
Dec.
to
1982
1982
Dec.
Jan.
2dQ
to
3d Q
3d Q
to
4th Q
1982
1983
1982
1982
1982
Dec.
1. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contractsand orders, plant and equipment . . .
*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,
1972 dol
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . . .
27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s — .
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment . .
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equip
86. Monresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. . .
Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
Bil. dol.
..do. . . .
do. . . .
14.10
24.04
24.39
24.04
23.63
24.06
12.15
20.64
12.13
20.74
11.50
19.83
12.13
20.17
11.40
20.17
24.84
23.97
4.3
-3.5
-1.7
13.00
20.15
11.75
21.12
14.0
-0.1
-9.6
4.8
-5.2
5.5
1.7
-4.4
. .do. . . .
12.39
10.56
10.72
9.88
L,C,U Mil.sq.ft. . .
U,Lg,U Bil. dol
CLg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP
77.72
26.42
92.74
57.38
NA
NA
59.17
19.33
82.82
57.84
18.71
73.82
51.63
NA
NA
C,Lg,Lg A.r., bil. dol.
321.49
319.99
323.22
315.79
315.21
do. . . .
C,Lg,Lg
C,Lg,U 1967=100...
C,Lg,C A.r., bil. dol.
348.59
191.1
172.0
325.26
157.9
165.5
330.81
160.5
166.7
319.59
153.1
163.4
311.87
147.1
160.0
310.90
146.6
315.49
147.5
NA
147.4
1.5
0.6
A.r., thous, .
L,L,L
L.L.L • 1967=100,,.
A.r., bil. dol.
L,L,L
1,087
80.0
44.9
1,061
79.6
40.2
950
74.1
40.1
1,122
79.5
39.5
1,255
98.8
42.5
1,361
96.3
1,263
105.4
1,716
119.4
-7.2
9.4
L,L,L
9.88
11.06
10.58
50.69
49.55
66.89
11.9
-4.3
-2.2
35.0
6.3
-7.8
-2.2
-3.2
-10.9
-10.7
NA
NA
-2.3
-0.2
NA
-0.1
-3.4
-4.6
-2.0
-2.4
-3.9
-2.1
35.9
13.3
18.1
7.3
-1.5
11.9
24.3
7.6
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol.2
*36, Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 .
38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . .
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. -Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5
70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol. s
65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods5
*77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on
order5
do.
L,L,L
LL,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
do.
do.
Bil. dol. .
Lg,Lg,Lg Bit. dol., EOP
do. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg
do. . . .
Lg.Lg.Lg
9.0
-8.8
-4.4
3.44
36.8
0.10
-14.61
-13.8
-2.12
-15.75
-0.3
-2.68
519.39
269,85
505.58
261.40
83.52
512.98
265.18
87.66
Lg,Lg,Lg Ratio
3.4
-18.7
7.8
-22.1
-8.64
9.7
-1.68
-13.53
-39.3
-1.55
-13.46
-67.1
-1.56
-21.18
-36.6
-1.19
NA
NA
NA
-7.72
30.5
0.37
NA
NA
NA
7.11
10.0
1.00
-4.89
-49.0
0.13
515.40 505.58
266.03 261.40
508.63
262.28
505.58
261.40
NA
NA
NA
-0.6
-0.3
-2.2
NA
NA
NA
0.5
0.3
0.6
-1.9
-1.7
-3.3
NA
0.
85.90
86.40
83.52
85.41
83.52
1.72
1.74
1.76
1.75
1.75
1.74
1.68
L,Lg,Lg Bil. dpi., EOP
197.72
NA
207.39
202.36
197.72
198.91
197.72
-0.83
241.7
-0.61
237.4
-0.46
231.1
-0.48
230.4
-0.50
227.4
119.71 114.12
113.82
223.13
0.02
0.02
-2.4
-2.3
0.22
-1.8
0.15
-2.7
36. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*99. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed6)2
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials ©
L.L.L
U,L,L
Percent
1967=100...
-0.58
283.4
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks©
L,L,L
194143=10.
128.04
Profits
16.
18.
79.
80
15.
26.
L.LL
L,L,L
L,C,L
L,C,L
L.L.L
L,LL
A.r., bil. dol,
do. . . ,
do/...
do. . . .
Cents
1977 = 100..
150.9
76.2
109.5
55.5
4.8
98.0
116.1
NA
102.0
NA
NA
96.8
116.3
56.2
100.0
48 f 5
3.7
96.5
119.4
57.1
105.3
50.4
3.5
96.8
L,L,L
L,L,L
A.r., bil. dol.
do. . .
275.2
134.7
NA
NA
263.5
123.3
272.6
128.6
1.305
210.3
1.389
229.4
1.388
230.0
1.392
229.8
'...
and Profit Margins:
Corporate profits after taxes
Corp. profits after taxes, 172 dollars
Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj . . ,
do
in 1972 d o l . . .
Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . .
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm bus
Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net c;ish flow, corporate, 1972 dollars
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp. . . .
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
; .
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income2
Lg,Lg,Lg 1977=100..
Lg.Lg.Lg Dollars. . . .
L.g,Lg,Lg 1967=100..
-0.67
242.5
136.71 138.10
139.37
-0.16
232.1
-0.02
-1.3
144.27
0.34
2.1
3.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
97.0
20.1
2.7
1.6
5.3
3.9
0.2
0.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.2
3.5
4.3
NA
NA
0.6
2.9
NA
231.2
231.7
230.9
231.2
0.1
Lg.LgXg Percent. . .
0.3
-0.1
NA
0.6
-0.2
B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (Ml) 2
102. Change in money supply (M2)2
104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed6)2
105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars
*1Q6. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars
L.L.L
L,C,U
LXX
L,L,L
ULL
Percent.
do.
do.
Bil. dol. .
..do.
0.50
0.79
0.93
197.6
800.7
0.69
0.73
0.85
198.5
813.9
0.36
0.65
0.86
197.2
807.9
0.72
0.93
0.98
196.6
814.4
1.08
0.72
0.73
202.0
829.1
1.13
0.79
0.73
202.0
828.5
0.91
0.73
0.66
204.4
836.8
0.84
2.47
0.64
205.7
856.0
-0.22
^0.06
-0.07
1.2
1.0
-0.07
1.74
-0.02
0.6
2.3
0.36
0.28
0.12
-0.3
' 0.8
0.36
-0.21
-0.25
2.7
1.8
Velocity of Mcmey:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml) 2
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2 .
C,C,C
C,Lg,C
Ratio
6.839
1.388
6.677
1.369
6.742
1.380
6.734
1.364
6.546
1.351
1.353
1.347
1.315
-0.006
-0.032
-0.016
0.188
•0.613
3 9.91
19.40
20.87
7.4
-5.02
22.64
11.55
1.4
0.73
45.22
15.69
4.6
-5.52
18.34
6.91
0.4
-29.31
-11.04
17.56
-5.1
-9.05 -23.51
-25.63 - 2 1 . 1 0
30.28
26.30
-5.4
-5.5
NA
45.18
NA
NA
-14.46
4.53
-3.98
-0.1
-6.25
-26.88
-8.78
-4.2
23.79
29:38
10.65
-5.5
Credit
33.
112.
113.
•111.
Flows:
Change in mortgage debt2
Change n business loans2
Change in consumer installment credit2 .
Change in credit outstanding1
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L.L.L
do. , .
A.r,, bil. dol.
do. . . .
A.r., Percent.
NA
66.28
NA
NA
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Timing
classification
Series title
Parcant change
Unit
Average
of
measure
2<JQ
3dQ
to
to
to
Dec.
198?.
Jan.
3dQ
1982
to
4th Q
1982
Nov.
2dQ
3d Q
1982
1981
4th Q
1982
Nov.
1982
Dec.
1982
Jan.
1933
1983
I, C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B7. Money and C r e d i t - C o n .
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v . 4 ) © . . . .
39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv. 4 ) 2 s , .
L,L,L
L.L.L
Mil.dol..
Percent, EOP
579.60
2.37
\
NA
2,18
2.16
NA
2.1
NA
2.18
NA
2.2
NA
2.18
NA
NA
-0.03
0.01
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve 1 ©....
L.U.U
Ug.U
Mil.dol. . . .
do. . . .
-1,051
1,359
1
-692
1,052
-982
1,29
-390
718
-14
577
-17
579
-19
697
-243
-197
»592
-579
-248
-141
16.38
14.08
12.87
15.48
11.33
16.31
19.56
18.87
,12.26
14.51
12.36
12.9
15.65
12.33
16.41
17.11
16.50
11.01
9.71
12.20
14.72
11.39
14.98
13.2
14.72
9.29
7.93
10.34
12.22
9.90
12.8
11.26
11.96
9,20
8.04
10.18
11.89
10.06
12.82
8.95
8.01
10.33
12.15
9.96
12,80
-0.02
-0.27
-0.20
0.04
-0.11
-0.46
0.07
- 3 50
10.3
12.04
9.
12,87
11.85
11.50
11.00
-0.35
338.6: 332.51 334.24 338.63 336.44 338,63
266.5! 268.29 27 2.64 268.96 268.37 263,81 266.6'
106.0! 107.00 108.25 106.68 106.41 104,5 105.8'
' 12.9: 12.98 12.86 12.81 12.79 12.84
0.7
-1.'?
-1-8
O.Q5
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds r a t e a ©
114. Treasury bill rate 2 ©
115. Treasury bond yields 2 ©
116. Corporate bond yields 2 ©
117. Municipal bond yields 2 ©
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2 ®
*109. Average prime rats charged by banks 2 ©
LLg.Lg
C,Lg,lg
C,Lg,Lg
Ls.Lfl.Lg
U,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg.Lg.Lg
i.g,ig,Lg
Percent. .
do.
dD.
do.
do.
do.
do.
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit9
72. Commercial and industrial loans
•101, Commercial and industrial loans, 1972 dollars
•95, Ratio, consumer install, credit to pars, income2
Lg,Lg.Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lcj,Lg,Lg
LgXg.Lg
Bil.dol., EOP
Bil.dol. .
do.
do. . . .
Percent
327.08
227.09
92.15
13.21
'11.66
'15.30
14.69
'14.86
NA
8.6
7.8
hJA
NA
-0.50
-2,65
-0.74
-0.93
-0.94
-1.43
-3.84
-1.78
,72
,78
.86
.50
,49
• 11
-2,01
-2,.76
NA
1.1
1.3
NA
G.,c>
1.6
1.2
-0.12
-1.3
-1.5
-0.05
1.3
I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B. Prices, Wagos, and Productivity
B 1 . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
331.
332.
333.
334.
1972=100..
1967-100..
Percent. . . .
1967=100..
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer prices (CPI), all items ©
Change in CPI, all items, S/A2
CPI, food
Producer prices (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods
.
195.5
272.4
0.7
274.6
207.2
289.
0.
285.
2 0 6 ,,0
287,, 3
0.8
285.3
208.5
292,8
0.3
287.3
210.4
293.4
0.
288.1
0.
288.2
292.4
-0.3
288.1
293,
0.
288.
-0,4
-0.3
CK
..
..
..
..
..
293.4
329.0
306.0
264.3
271.3
299.
319.
310.
279.6
280.9
298.6
324.3
308.9
277.9
278.1
300.0
318.9
310.5
281.6
282.4
300.3
316.1
311.5
283.5
285.6
300.4
317.4
311.9
283.3
286.1
300.6
316.
311.8
284.6
286.5
300.0
315.6
310.8
284.3
282.6
0.1
-0.3
0.
0'.5
1977=100..
138.9,
148.4
147.4
149.6
151.4
151.
152.1
152.
0.6
0.4
1.5
1.2
do. . .
92.6,'
143.2
9 5-4
100.7
93
153.6
96.4
101.0
93.4
152.3
96.4
100.3
93.0
154
96
101.2
93,7
156 .,9
96 ,,9
102.2
94.3
94,
C|.9
0.4
-0.4
1,6
0.8
1.4
0.8
1.0
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.
293.6
1.2
-o!s
0.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-1.4
0.5
-1.7
0.5
1.3
0.9
0.2
-0.
0
0.1
-0.9
1.1
8 2 . Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus..
346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business . .
370. Output per hour, private business sector , . . .
do. .,
do. ..
do. . .
93.5
-0,3
0,,9
C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
Total civilian labor force
Total civilian nmployment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years snd over..
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of atje
Millions . . .
do. . .
Thousands.
do. . .
do. . .
do. ..
108 .6^ 110.20 110.09 110.63 110.97 111.04 111,13 110.55
100.40 99,53 99.72 99.60 99.14 99.14 99,09 99.10
8,273 10,678 10,369 11,025 11,839 11,906 12,036 11,446
3,61$ 5,089 4,368 5,320 5,829 5,865 5,909 5,59
2,895 3,613 3,554 3,684 3,961 3,989 4,071 3,963
1,977
1,947
2,020 2,049 2,052 2,056 1,886
1,763
1.1
p.8
2.1
0.2
-0.5
0.
-4.9
-5.3
-2,7
-8.3
-0,2
0.2
«0.5
-0,6
-0.2
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
6.3
9.3
0.3
-0.5
7.4
9.6
7.5
1.4
i
Labor Force Participation Rates:
• 451. Males,.20yearsandover2
452. Females, 20 years and o v e r 1 . . .
453. 80th sexes, 16-19 years of age2
Percent. . . .
do. . .
do. . .
79.6
52.J
55.,4
78.7
52.7
54.1
78.8
52.7
54.1
78.8
53.0
53.9
78.8
52.9
54.1
617.0 613,
736.6 769,
•119.& •156,
434.3 440.
402.2 408,
32.1
32.3
NA
816.2
NA
NA
414.3
MA
78.9
52.9
54.4
78.7
53.1
53.9
78.1
52.9
53.5
0.3
-0. 2
0.
-0.1
0.2
0. Government Activities
D 1 . Receipts and Expenditure:;
501.
502.
500,
511,
512.
510.
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
Federal Government surplus or deficit2 ,
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
State and local govt. surplus or deficit2 .,
A.r., bil.dol.
do, . .
...do. ..
do. . .
do. ..
do. . .
628.12 614.5
6 88 .2 762.7
-60.0 -148.2
416.8
437.1
385.'0 405.3
31.7
31.9
-0.5
4.5
-36.4
1.4
1.5
0.2
NA
6.0
NA
NA
1.5
NA
0 2 . Defense Indicators
517.
525.
548.
564.
Defense Department obligations . . . . . .
Military prime contract awards
New orders, defense products
National defense purchases
Mil.dol....
do. . . ,
8,694 17,501 19,824
1,490 9,278 10,977
5,46.2 4,778 7,074
176.2 182.7 189.4
8,599 24,396
0,209 17,298
5,091 11.309
A.r., bil.dol.
15,945 18,908
8,065 10,718
4,855 6,066
153:7
178.6
Mil.dol.
. . .do.
. . .do.
. . .do.
. . .do.
. . .do.
19,456 17,714
3,6,08 3,053
4,4,56 4,007
21,7,51 20,343
6,319 4,964
2,li9O 2,442
8,294 17,637 16,242
3,420 2,733 2,700
4,033 4,119 3,745
9,752 21,232 19,632
4,310 5,419 4,961
2,600 2,540 2,254
5,693 16,335
2,783 2,637
3,686 3,719
8,936 18,865
4,757 4,694
2,130 2,189
do. ..,
NA
NA
8,807
!31.2
69.4
122.1
NA
-22.1
-6.4
•19.3
•12.5
3.7
13.3
18.3
48.1
3.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-3.6
•20,1
2.1
7.5
25.7
-2,3
-7.9
-1.2
-9.1
-7.5
E. U.S. International Transactions
E1. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.
Exports, total except military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts
...
..
...
...
..,
...
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
,-1.3
, 2.8
-1U3
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1980
3dQ
1981
1981
4th Q
1981
1st Q
1982
1982
2dQ
1982
3dQ
1982
4th Q
1982
1st Q
to
2dQ
1982
2dQ
to
3d Q
3dQ
to
4th Q
1982
1982
tl. O T H E R I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MIEASURES-Con.
E:,2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
618.
620.
622.
651.
652.
668.
669,
667.
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investment in the US
Exports oi goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on goods and services2
. .do..
..do.
. .do.
. .do.
, .do.
..do.
..do.
56,059
62,394
-6,334
18,171
10,694
85,526
83,451
2,074
59,064 52,789 57,694 57,593 55,607 55, 002 52,318 48,228
66,036 61,817 65,539 66,778 61,544
764 64,826 60,134
-6,972 -9,028 -7,845 -9,185 -5,937
762' 12,508 11,906
21,486
562 21,880
NA 22,048 21,727 20,890
NA
13,227
874 14,462
NA 13,865 13,198 14,029
NA
93,223
266 88,058
NA 92,965 92,259 90,193
NA
90,454
295 90,632
NA 90,406 91,316 87,070
NA
2,770
943
3,123
971 -2,574
NA 2,559
NA
-4.9
-1.1
-1.3
6.7
175
,746
8.0
-3.0
6.0
-2.8
1.2
-3.5
0.3
3.8
848 -6,545
-7.8
-7.2
602
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
618
620
622
651
652
668
669
667
A.r., bil.dol.
do..
. .do. .
do..
do..
A.r., dollars.
do..
1474.0
2633.1
1479.0
1824.1
1018.0
6,475
4,472
1502.6
2937.7
1493.7
2029.1
1043.1
6,537
4,538
1473.9
3101.4
1492.6
2227.1
1060.7
6,328
4,554
0.5
1.7
-0.2
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.6
0.2
1.4
-0.3
2.2
0.3
-0.1
0,1
-0.5
0.4
1.0
1.3
0,2
-0.7
0,
50
200
213
224
225
217
227
A.r., bil.dol.
do..
.......do..
..do..
. .do.
..do.,
. .do.
..do.
947.6
957.0
930.5
951.4
949.1
943.4
955.0
956.3 967
140.0
137.1
138.7
142.2
137.5
138.3
142.6
134.1
136.4
355.8
362.4
365.0
363.0
362.2
364.5 365.9
367.5
363.1
437.6
445.2
453.3
446.2
449.5
452.2
457
454.0
446.2
1667.2 1843.2 1971.3 1868.8 1884
1919.4 1947.8 1986.3 2031
214.3
234.6
242.5
241.2
229.6
237.9
240.7
251
240.3
670.4
734.5 762.0
746.5 749.1 755.0 768.4
741.3
775
782.5
874.1 966.8
908.3
886.3
932.4
952.1 977.6 1005.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.5
1.2
0.8
2.1
0.1
-1.4
0.4
0.4
2.0
-0.2
1.8
2.7
1.2
4.5
0,4
0.7
2.3
4.5
0.9
2.8
231
233
238
239
230
232
236
237
A. National Income and Product
A 1 . G N P and Personal Income
50.
200.
213.
224.
225.
217.
227.
GNP in 1972 dollars
GNPin current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . . .
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNPin 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 d o l . . .
1476.0
3057.6
1484,8
2173.4
1055.2
6,361
4,547
1510.4
2980.9
1493.9
2060.0
1048.8
6,563
4,557
1490.1
3003.2
1485.3
2101.4
1051.9
6,458
4,559
1470.7
2995.5
1486.1
2117.1
1046.9
6,360
4,527
1478.4
3045.2
1482.7
2151.5
1054.8
6,380
4,552
1481.1
3088.2
1477.8
2198.1
1058.3
6,375
4,555
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
231.
233.
238.
239.
230.
232.
236.
237.
Total, 1972 dollars
(Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars ..
Services, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars.
Services, current dollars
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
241.
243.
30.
240.
242.
245.
Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2
Total, current dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars . . .
Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol. 2
. .do..
. .do..
. .do..
. .do..
. .do. .
. .do. .
208.4
213.3
-5.0
402.3
412.4
-10.0
225.8
216.9
9.0
471.5
451.1
20.5
197.0
205.7
-8.8
420.5
443.3
-22.8
233.4
216.9
16.5
486.0
454.2
31.8
218.9
214.1
4.8
468.9
455.7
13,2
195.4
210.8
-15.4
414,8
450.4
-35.6
202,
206,
-4,
431,
447,
-16.2
206.3
202.9
3.4
443.3
438.6
4.7
183.8
202.6
-18.7
392.4
436.6
-44.2
3.5
-1.9
11.0
4.0
-0.6
19.4
2.0
-1.8
7.8
2.7
-2.0
20.9
-10.9
-0.1
-22.1
-11.5
-0.5
-48.9
241
243
30
240
242
245
..do
..do
..do
..do
..do
..do
284.6
106.5
178.1
538.4
197.2
341.2
287.1
110.4
176.7
596.9
228.9
368.0
291.2
116.2
175.0
647.3
257.7
389.6
286.4
110.7
175.7
600.2
230.0
370.1
291.3
116.0
175.3
626.3
250
375.7
289.2
114.4
174,9
630.1
249.7
380.4
285.3
110.3
175.0
630.9
244.3
386.6
291.1
116.2
174.9
651.7
259.0
392.7
299.2
124.1
175.1
676
277.9
398.9
-1.3
-3.6
0.1
0.1
-2.2
1.6
2.0
5.3
-0.1
3.3
6.0
1.6
2.8
6.8
0.1
3.8
7.3
1.6
261
263
267
260
262
266
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
159.2
108.6
50.6
339.2
314.0
25.2
158.5
116.4
42.0
367.3
341.3
26.1
147.3
116.4
30.9
349.2
330
18.5
157.8
118.7
39.2
367.2
341
25.9
156.9
120.4
36.5
367.9
344.4
23.5
151.7
114.7
36.9
359.9
328.6
31.3
154.4
118.7
35.7
365.8
330.9
34.9
147.5
120.0
27.5
349.5
342.5
6.9
135.5
112.2
23
321.5
320.7
0.8
1.8
3.5
-1.2
1.6
0.7
3.6
-4.5
1.1
-8.2
-4.5
3.5
-28.0
-8.1
-6.5
-4.2
-8.0
-6.4
-6.1
256
257
255
252
253
250
NA
2117.1 2352.5 2436.6 2387.3 2404.5 2396.9 2425.2 2455.6
1598.6 1767.6 1856.4 1789.1 1813.4 1830.8 1850.7 1868.3 1875.9
129.3
120.4
127.5
124.1
116.4
117.3
116.3
124.7
118.4
160.5
183.9
157.1
155.4
181.6
190.6
166.2
NA
193.1
33.9
34.1
33.9
34.2
32.9
33.9
33.6
34.6
33.6
266.4
265.2
258.7
187.7
235.7
244.0
267.5
268,1
249.5
1.2
1.1
0.8
-1.1
0,9
3.4
1.3
1.0
0.9
6.9
1.2
0.2
NA
0.4
9.2
NA
-2.0
-0.6
220
280
282
286
284
288
3.0
1.1
3.7
3.2
0.1
-4.3
2.5
5.3
-36.2
0.2
NA
NA
-10.9
NA
-0.8
290
295
292
298
293
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
261.
263.
267,
260.
262.
266.
Total, 1972 dollars
Fnderai Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
State and local governments, current dollars . . .
A5. Foreign Trade
256.
257.
255.
252.
253.
250.
Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars ..
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . .
Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol. 2 . . .
Exports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Imports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Net exports of goods and serv., current dol. 2 .
A6. National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
286.
284.
288.
National income
Cofnpsnso'
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj . .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj . .
Nat interest
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.
Gross saving (private and govt.) .
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit2 .
Personal saving rate2
..do
..do
..do
. .do
. .do
..do
A7. Saving
..do.
..do.
..do.
do.
Percent . . .
406.2
332.1
106.2
-33.2
5.8
477.5 414.5
NA
374.5
142.7
130.2
- 2 8 . 2 -116.4
6.6
6.4
490,0
379.1
134.4
-24.5
6.5
476.3
389.1
158.6
-72.5
7.5
428.8
380.3
139.1
-90.7
6.6
441.5
384.6
144.3
-87.5
6.7
422.4
394.2
152.0
-123.7
6.9
NA
NA
135.5
NA
6.1
NOTE: Serial are Mfliortally adjusted except tor those indicated by <S>, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unlen otherwise specified. For complete sories titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCO. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP • end of period. A.r. - annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted {used for special emphasis). IVA - inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA * national income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have bean rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCO. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
The three part timing code indicates the timing classification of the varies at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L * leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.
* Inverted saries. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
s
£nd-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
(Nov.)(0(l)
P
(July)(Wlay)
T
[Index; 1967^100
910. Index of 12 leading indicators
j (series 1,"5, 8,12y 19/20,29, 32, 36,99,106, Ul>
1920. Index of 4 roughly coincident M o t o r s
lo
930. Wex of 6 lagging M c a t o L
(Series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109)
f
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) ih months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
10
FEBRUARY 1983
BCII
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
(Notf.)COct.)
P T
(July) (May)
P T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.)(Feb.)
P T
(Dec.)(Wov.)
f T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
(Jan.)Ouly)
P T
913. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1,2T 3, 5)
914. Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29)
915JJ Inventory Vestment and purchasing (series 8,32, 36*
^
-v 1
/
/
V/
V
i
916. Profitabity (series 19,26,80)
917. Money and financial fUfrs (series 104,106, 111)
. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
1948 49 50
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( —) and lags { + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
BCII FEBRUARY 1983
11
CYCLICAL
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
)
P
T:
(ApO(Fei).)
[Gn.tj$n\\i
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P T
1 . Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hoorjj)
3tt :i-i
.. . , i J 5 - J v e r j f j weekly initial claims, State unempto|rrtent insuranc^
" T ^"(tfibwands--inverted scale) rry
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars
"Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
deliveries (percent)
nT7
Ml-
140I3v-
12. Nat business formation (index: 1967-100)
110-
12-
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,
6-
Current data for these series are shown oin pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.
12
FEBRUARY 1983
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
(Nov.)(Oct.)
T
(JulyXMay)
P T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.)CFeb.)
F
(Jan.) (July)
T
9.; New building permits, private housing
36, tm change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, "smoothed1" (anifiTiratcT, * bKl" dol.")
99.;! Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
l | l . Qharige |n Credit outstanding—business and consumer
b l
(aim. rate,
^ i f l
19. 'Stock ^ces, 500 common ^tocks
'
(index;! 194J-43-|0) r~ J — L -
Mongy||supply^M2-in 1972 dollars (bil. ddl.)
1948 49 §0 §1
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.
IHCII
FEBRUARY 1983
13
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov.XOet.)
P T
(Ju!y)(May)
;A«g.)(Apr.)
(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T
(Apr.)(Feb.)
U '
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
if
! ill i
41. HployMs on nonagricultural payrolls (pjitms)
51. Personal income less transfer
1972 dollars (ann. rate, biT
47. Industrial product* total (index: J M 7 - 1 0 0 )
/
57. Manufacturing: and trMl sales,
1972 dollars (bll.
1948 49
5©
51
B2
53
M
5S
Sg B7
5S
§9
SO 61
62
S3
©4
6S
ii
67
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.
14
FEBRUARY 1983
KCII
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P T
(July) (May)
p r
(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T
(Aug.)(Apr.) (i
p T
P T
(Wov.) (Mar.)
P
T
(Jan.)(July)
P T
~[ 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
1
g
'
-
i
L
• • •
i
'
- ^
I
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales
;
and trade (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data
as pfercefit of trend (percent) i L g L L
109.
Average prime rate charged by banks, (percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars (bl. dol.)
installment credit to personal income
AAUL
I
JJ
I
i L
76 77 7B 79 80 81 831983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.
I t C I I FEBRUARY 1983
15
CYCLICAL BNDIOATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Employm^'i Adjustments!
1.
.-£'!:
•|-;
Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
2 1 . Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
#
2.
Accession rate, mumufacturing (per 106 employees)
. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
LXl
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 106 employees—inverted scale) |L,L1
4.
Quit rate, manufacturing (p*
100 employees)
Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .
16
FEBRUARY 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
if
lf~~
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
'
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
46.
42.
Employee-hours in nonagricultural
(ann. rate, biL hours
Persons engaged in nonagricuitural acti
41.
4Q.
09
SO
Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
of persons unemplojeg^(rajo)
Help-wanted advertising (index:
48.
iS
(Jan.) (July)
PT
' ' I ! ' "
60.
1956 57
(Nov.) (Mrr)
T
Employees on nona icultural payrolls (millions)
Employees in ^oods-producing in^stries—rnj^i
manufacturing, construction (millions)
61
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.
IMJI
FEBRUARY 1983
17
CYCLICAL INDGCATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.
PI
tio, civilian employment to total population of workhg age (percent)
ICorpfhensive Un
37. Number unemployed, total ( r r * K r c - i n verted scale)
43. Unemployment rate, total (p#r««nt—inverted scale)
45, Average weekly insured unemplogpint rate (percent-Averted scale)
91. Average duration of unemployment ^iiks—inverted scale)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)
19S6 97
58
59
60
61
62
S3
S4
6§
V/f)
$•>
til
1.12
1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.
18
FEBRUARY 1983
BCI»
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T
(Nov.)
(Apr.) (Fat)
P
(Mar.)
T
(Jan.) (July)
PT
Corffljhensive Output and Income 1
50.
52.
GNP in 1972 !do4tatst Q (ann. rate, bti. ctol.)
Personal income
51.
ty|ff2
dollars (ann, ratef b | dol.)
Personal incorne less transfer
(ann. ra*e, b f e » )
fe
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manprtifing, and
ton$tructiorii||972 dollars ( a n n j | r * , p . dol.)
260240 220200 «
180160140-
67
1956 57
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 7S
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 63,
ItCII
FEBRUARY 1983
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart 6 2 . Production and Income—Continued
ndustrial Production ii
47. Industrial production, total (indjtx: 1967=JJJQ
CXX
74. Industrial production,
(index: 1967=100)
73, Industrial production, durable
(index: 1^?-100)
49. Value of gwxls output in 1972 d^ars, Q
83.
| Capacity Utilization I !|
82.
Rate of capacHy utilization, manufacturing (BEA)r Q (percent)
Kate pf capacity u t i l i z ^ i manufacturing ( W ) i f
(percent)
84. Rate of capacity utrirtftMon, materials, Q
8070*
60tit
S52
<B3
d
7B
JS
M ' ?9
III)
&l
H2 1983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64,
20
FEBRUARY 1983
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Jan.) (July)
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
10090«
SO"
6. New orders, durable good* industries,
current dollars (bil.;dol.)| • j
706050-
New orders, durable goods industriesr 3U2-dollars, , „
40-
30-
45-
8. New orders for consume goods and_mat§
\ in 1972 dollars (bil.jftl)
L
40353025-J
25: Change in unfilled orders, dabble goods industriqfr;t;Vil
( b | dol.; MCD moving a v ^ l
+4-
LLL
+ 20-2-4380340300260220-
Industries
'• •]!
"m
180140-
100-
60 J
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving sloWer deliven^i :||>ercent) _
{
100755025-
A.:. •••.. '. . u u d t -
1956 57
58
§9
6©
61
§2
77
78
79
80
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
BCII
FEBRUARY 1983
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
J
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.)
(Dec.) (Mew.)
P
T
(Mar.)
38U"
340-
ICjimptionandMel
300-j
2f,0V0-
mo J
56.
Manufacturing and trade sales' in current dollars -— /
(IjiLdo!.)
'
UP"
57. Manufacturing and trade sales
in 19^1 dollars (bil. dot.)
10! J
171 T
161 151'Un-
J
6 54.
Sales of retail stor#%ciikent dollars
ell
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
55. Person3*,|Wiumption expenmtures,
a u t o m o p l l (ann. rate, bi. dol,)
1956 S7
1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
22
FEBRUARY 1983
RCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
n
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr,) (Fob.)
p
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
F
(Jan.) (July)
P
I
[Formation of Business Enterprises]
12. Net business formation (index: 1967-100)
120100-
13. New business incorporations (thousands) \
30-
[Business Investment Commitments 1
IS*
20. Contracts and orders for plant and
! in 1972 dollarsUbil. Idol.) , \ i i
10. C a p e t s and orders fotj plattf, and equipment
i n l « f e n t dollars (bil. dol.) F I T
27. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense. in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
i
I
,
!
ii
'
10-
no7060-
;
1 Construction contracts. commeblt! and industrial b u l i d t e j
(mil. sq| ft. qf floor area; MCD pfyjng avg.—6-termp
40-
30-
1996
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.
ItCII
FEBRUARY 1983
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
InvestmeBMymmitments—Con.
97, Backlog of capital appropriate, manufacturing, Q
(bidd.)
— —
11. New capital approprmfeis, manufacturing,
Q ( H . dpi.)
I Bufliss Investmeflf^Expenditures
69. Machinery and equipment sales M business
construction expenditures ( a n 4 | ™ , biL dot.)
jal production, bujjijfe equipment
; 1967 - 1 0 0 ) mmWW~~
19S6 S7
§8
5i
iCS
il
Sg
§3
§4
65
1*133
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
FEBRUARY 1983
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dee.) (Won.)
P
T
(Apr.)(Fgb.)
P T
(Jan.) (July)
P T
1 Bus&jfss Irtivestrrient gbcpenditures^— Con,
Nonresidents fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (ann.
120 «
1 Residential Construction
;ru>£fK>n Comrnrtrtients and Investment |
28. New private housing urRs started, total (annj rate.
29. New building permits, private dousing units (index;
89. Residential fixed
(ann. rate, bil.
19SS
S7
SS
it
Current data for these series are shown on page 67
BCII
FEBRUARY 1983
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
Invtfigry Investmegp
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
IXX
36. N^t change in inventories on tan* and on order, 1972 Molars
(ann. rate, bil. doL; moving avg t —4-term 1 ) ft
| 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade Inventories
(ann. rate, bil. doL; MCD moving avg.—6-temT)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (bil. doL; MCD moving avg.—4|tom) I, •",)
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
'
26
FEBRUARY 1983
KCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
?
1
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
(Jan.) (July)
P T
71. Book value, manufacturing and
: current
ent dollars (bil.
(bil dol)
dol.)
|
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bil.
fHIIt
65. Book value of
of finished goods
77, Ratio, constant-dollar inventories io sales, manufac
and; trade; (ratio) I LgyLgtLg
78i Stocks of materials and supplies on hmi and on order, A
manufacturing (bil. dol.) •
>^»r+*«
h^
82 1983
1956 57
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
BCII
FEBRUARY 1983
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6.
Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nev.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive materials
i
(pefcent; MCD moving avg.—6-teimX
^_I_LJ^A
L
i i^ifl
99.
Change in sensitive rmaterials
pffc**
(percent; moving
'-Mm
li'••-'•
Jk
••V'ii
AJ*J*
••:
!
:
[i
•'•
-2.
M
i ft
p
Iff1
A/If'
i^
-•-p
I
•:
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials2 (indft;
!
It
• . ) . ' !
..."•
w
A=^
220-
osxn - ^
rw
iu
V
30Stock prices, 500 common stodif^ifidex: 1941*43 =«;
60-
180-
=
18.
Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dojars, Q
!
; (anri: rate. bil. <tel.)J
fTTTl
!
^
M
:•;««•
^
8tt-
16.
Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. doL)
i, , • ; i;
1956 57 S8 59 60 ©1 62 63 g4 65 iS 67 63 ®§ ?0 11 72 7$ 7® 7B 70 71 7$ I'M ftO 8 1
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be rsprocluced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
'
28
*:i.i 19iS3
FEBRUARY 1983
ItCII
CYCLICAL
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
(Nov.)
f
(Mar.)
T
(Jan.) (July)
T
P r o i i a n d Profit Martins—Con.
80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
1972 dollars, Q (ami. rate, bil. N .
79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
Current dollars, Q (arm. rate, :b§. dot.) rrTrr
81. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and
capital e ^ m p t i o n
income, Q (percent)
(after taxes) to total corporate domestic
vilib, Q VPOTWIH
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,! ai manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm busmiss sector, Q (index: 1977=100)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bit. doh)
ITTT
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dot,)
. n ii i l
1936 57
§8
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
IN:
FEBRUARY 1983
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
?
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
j
T
P
J[
(Nov.)
T
(Wlar.)
P
' 1
s
179-
lUntljbor Costs pjljlabor Share]
• TIT' r — — — r >-
160-
m
litO140 ••
no-
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector, Q
(index: 1 9 7 7 - 1 0 0 ) |
j j '
8 H,JI
l.
1
r
i:
m
s
i:
j
S|. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product
(1972 doHars), nonfinancial corporations, Q (dfttiff)
62. Labor cost per unit of output/manufactui^
64, Compensation of employees as a percent ofratttenaiincome,
r
Q (Percent)
[TTiTTTI
^
yf
#\
/ii-
m
• # •
1996
57
B8
59
©0
SI
S2
S3
64
65
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
T4 • ?
Hi
\& 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
30
FEBRUARY 1983
ItOI
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Jan.) (July)
PT
85.
Change in money supply M l
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
i k Mi fif
102:
Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
104:
Change in total liquid assets (percent; moving avg.—4-term1)
105.
Money supply—Ml—in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
106.
Money s u p p l y - M 2 - i n 1972 dollars (bil. dot.)
107.
Ratio, GNP to \Mtoy supply M l , Q (fatio)
fcxx"
|Vel<xjjty of Money j
108,
_ _j
^^
Ratio, personal Income to money supply M2 (ratio)
s_.^C^N£yTT."....»
82 1983
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .
ItOII
FEBRUARY 1983
31
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Dec.) ( t o )
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
P
(fJoy.}
par.)
I
[Credit; flows]
33.
'pi
'I
Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, by.
112. Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bil. dot.;
jj
MCD moving ayg.—6-term) I J H I
j U . . — . . ._.- 3 .~ji
113.
(
j ^ _ .
»
Change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate,'l)tl."dor.)
111. Change in credit outstanding—business and consumar
borrovyt^ (ann, rate, percent)
110.
Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
ILLLI
Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 72.
32
FEBRUARY 1983
BCII
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Jan.) (July)
P T
I Credit Difficulties 1 j|
14.
39.
Current liabilities of business failures (mil. do)
inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
Delinquency rate, 30 days and over , consumer installment
(percent—inverted scale)
L
93.
94.
Free reserves (bil. doK—inverted scale)
Member bank borrowing from
the Federal Reserve (bit. dot.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
FEBRUARY 1983
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
114. ; fn$$ury bill! rate
{pirtent) f?
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
118. Secondary markeyjids on FHA mortgai|g^ percent)
lUw-/-
117. Municipal bond yMds (percent)
195© 57
58
59
60
61
Sg
S3
S4
S5
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
FEBRUARY X983
IMJI
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T
• \r~
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
•' "
;i
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Jan.) (July)
T
"if
67. Bank rates on shor^-t
fiiTTJ
109. Average prime file charged by banks (percent)
72. Commercial and
; dollars (bi. doL)
trial {pans outstanding in current
100-
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dolars
6016-
Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)
14-
12-
10-
87
m
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
17
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
KCII
FEBRUARY 1983
35
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
(Dee.) {Wsy.
P
T
| j Percyt
950. Twelve leading indicator componertts (6-mo. s p a n — , h m .
^wm
59^
0-
95L Four roughly coincident indicator compwwts (6-mo. $pan-«*vl*mo. span-—)
IDO-i
952. Six lagging indicator components (6*m®. s p a n — , 1-molOfi-
W l . Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing- 20 industries (t«Jflto. s p a n — , 1-mo. span
« VWH W
§82.
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—51-ir#s (percent
ltmo. span—, 1-mo. span
HD-
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172*p6 industries ( 6 - ^ i p i ^ , 1-mo. span—LCO-i
9*1
m
¥:B
80
81
.% 1.1)83
Current data far these series are shown on page 74.
36
FEBRUARY 1983
KCII
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
PI
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
Sjj4. New orders, durable goods industries—34-35 incjqstries
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
(Jan.) (July)
P T
pPercent rising]
«•—, 1-mo. span-—Y
200"!
50-
• $jj5. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q mvtog avg.»~, 1-Q span
)
^
90^
70-
50-
966.
Industrial production—24 incte&Ies (6-mo. span-**, l*fno. span-^—)
100-
so-
0-
$m* Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo. spaft*—, 1-mo. s p a n - t - )
100-
so-
0-
! 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—49-82 l^jtostries (9-mo. span-**; 1-mo. span-—)
100-
50-
0-
960. Net profits, manufacturing^atmit 600 companies1 (%*q span)
so795030-
7?
1956 57
J8
79
80
SI
82 1983
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
MAP
FEBRUARY 1983
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion
(Nov.)
P
Indexes—Continued
(Mar.)
T
'.)
(Jan.)Ouly)
P T
Actui
~ ~
A n t i c i p a t e d •••••••
(Mar.)
(I'M
Mi'H^
| Percent rising
970l Business expenditures for new pint and
4ppment—22 industries (1-Q $pan)
I expenditures
974. Number $( wployees, manufacturing
i
60 «
1
50'
in
r
40
Jin) 1
975. Level O'f ittntories, manufacturing and Ifda
70
•
^!\
\
. vr
\
SO
/
60H
50-
4C^S
97 j ^ l t o j orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
976. SefeiJ prtces, manufacturing (4-Q sfHw)
100 <
Si
L—......
911'
80-
•v
*
•
•
'
•
972. i ^ profits, manufacturing and triite (4-Q span)1
:
•iii
1
in *
VI.
'SI
1
7(1 -
^
977. Setl^g prices, wholesale trade (4-Q
100
SO
80i
80*70
I
59-
973, p i sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
1971 72
73
74
75
76 ?;
i;o*J
978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)§
72
73
74
75
;n
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without Written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about
1,400 business executives.
i
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
38
FEBRUARY 1983
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)
? 1
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (to.)
P
"
(Jan.) (July)
P T
T
ir
ir -
1-month $pans
3-month spans
| Percent change at annual rate
910c. Composite index of 12 leading kidtcators
920c, Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators
930c. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
r
50c. GNP in constant (1972) dollars (1-Q span) :
"n
~~
-~*
'
47c. Index of industrial production
48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments
i)lc. Personal income less transfer
payments in 1972 dollars
NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
ItCII
FEBRUARY 1983
39
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
FT
200. GNP in current ( H i s , Q (am. rate,
223. Personal income in current dollars!
224. D o a b l e personal mcome in curra*
, Q (ann. rate, bl. dd.)
225. Dispo^Me personal income in 1972
1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
;
217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann, r a ^ thous. dot.
a l P^sonal income in
dollars, Q {%m* w e , thous. dol.)
193S S7
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.
40
FEBRUARY 1963
ltd)
URES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T
(Da.) (Nov.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Now.)
P
(Jan.) (July)
P T
(Mar.)
T
| Annual rate, billion dollars (current) [
Personal consumption expenditures—
',
li
^ !•
237.
40©300 •
S#wes,Q
236,
232.
Nondurable goods, Q
Dur«h goods, Q
I
[Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) I
. Nondurable goods, Q
233.
57
iS
i©
(S®
Durable goods, Q
"
(SI
Current data for these series are shown on pages 1)0 and 81
ItCII
FEBRUARY 1983
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME! AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
'(Now.)
P
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P.
I
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Mar.)
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
&oss private imestic investment—
240, Total, 0 —
242. Total fixed Investmentr Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q
Annual rate, billion dollars• j J 9 7 2 J j
243. T^taHiKed* investmentTQ
30. Change in busirms inventories, Q
ISSd SJ
SS
89
SO
61
-
il
Current data for these series are shown 6n p&ge 81
42
FEBRUARY 1983
KCII
JPOf
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government F'urchases of Goods and Services
(Aug.) (Apr.)
PI
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
I
(Jars.) (July)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |
Government purchases of goods and services—
Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) |
1996 S7
Si
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
BCII FEBRUARY 1983
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) ( f a )
P
T
[Annual rate, billion doHars feurrent)j
252. Exports of gooit Hid services, Q —
Imports of goods aiilNrvices, Q
250. Net exports |«f foods and services, $
j ""
Annual rate, bilbon 4ola»197£),l,
:
255. Net exports of go#t>Jnd
^ \ . . . . . .
1956 57
53
59
60
.
I
80
81
UV 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 82
44
FEBRUARY 1983
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
_
(Dec) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
T
(Jan.) (July)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |
220. National income, Q
ate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q
288. Net interest, Q
^^
consumption adjustments, Q
284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q
1956 57
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
FEBRUARY 1983
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A |
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Key.)
P
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
Annual rate, billon dollars kurrent) |
290. Gross saving (private and gov^wnent)
295. 'Businln* saving, Q
292. Personal!saving, Q
298. Government suq^s or deficit, Q
293, Personal mm% rate, Q
L.ii ' ii " i( ijlJuiA
1956 57
' i ': i' 'i i ,ul JlJL . .
BB
59
60
il
.. .. l.j!
§2
63
®4
6§
Current data for these series are nhown on pages 82 and 83.
46
FEBRUARY 1983
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr,) (Feb.)
P T
I Perwnt of GNP |
235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q
268. State and toca government purchases
of goods and services, Q
2m
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q
KM,,
investment
business inventories
jnt of [ Naticihal inipomel
64. Compensation of employees, Q
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
|| and capital consumption adjustments, Q
capital consumption adjustments, Q
289. Net interest, Q
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
SI
1956 S7
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
FEBRUARY 1983
47
B
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price Movements
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
(Jan.) (July)
P T
(Nov.)
ffe)
. .. .4 . . ,. ,
Percent chanfe f t annual rate
oin
310c. Implicit price deflator, J
310. Implicit price deflator, GNP, Q
"311c, Fixed wegfifed price VdeiiC grossbusiness*pra3uct {1-Q spin)
311. Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product, Q '""
Producer prices-
|M*ottth spans
"""" 336c. fiObmrrioifitres
Index: 1967 = 100
Producer prices—
330. A! coriVRRlitir
' 331c. CruWmafefials
332c. Intermediate
"333c7 {TapiiaF equBnienl""
333, Capital equipnmmt
334c. Finished consumer goo#
72
73
74
7S
7©
77
933
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.
FEBRUARY
1983
ItCI)
I £(S©M@WuOg M G ^
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
P
T
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
(Jan.) (July)
P
T
P I
32®-
Percent change at annual rate
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
Index: 1377=* 100
341. Real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nanfami economy1
ll
il :': f
I!
,:
I
• !
1
340. Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1!
346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q
-
•-•=•
—! 120-
v -
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector; Q (current dollars)
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
KCII
FEBRUARY 1983
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURE
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
(Now.)
(fe)
6-month spans (arm. rate)
in averagptaly earnings of production
1
+10-
, brivate m f l r m economy —•
340c. Curtllvdollar earnings
^ 1
3 4 K R^al earnings
'
in averagf§piily compensation, all employees;
m buHMSsKr. Q -
6-month spans (ann. rate)
CurrenNoIar compensation
Quarter sp|ns (ffiTfi
4 10-
C. Real compensation
1-quarter spam (ann. ralej
wage M ^ benefit decisions, all industries—
34f|*f : irst year average changes, Q (ann. rate)
Average changes over life of
* S : contract, Q (ann. rate)
no
358. O u t p g p r hour, all persons,
nonfals business sector, Q
370. Output pet boor, all persons,
private business sector, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
t
A
1956 57
1-quarter spans (ann. rate) i
.
i
Ni
1:1
&• 1,933
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to maka them
comparable with the annuallzed 6-rnonth changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
50
FEBRUARY 1983
ItCII
1
C
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Now.)
P
T
441.
(Nov.) ' (Mar.)
P
T
(Jan.) (July)
P T
Civilian labor force, total (millions)
1
442.
Total employed (millions)
|participation rates (percent)—
453.
Both sexes 16-19 vears of aee
452,
Females 20 years jmd ove
Number unemployed (millions)—
^44.
•
Males ?0 years
and over
Females 20 years}
and over
446.
4471!
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time
worfeir^(millions)
19S6 57
Current data Cor these series are shown on page 89.
BCII
FEBRUARY 1983
51
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart 0 1 . Receipts and Expenditures
(Aufi.)(Apr.)
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dee.) (Key.)
T
|Amua[ rate, bion Mian
(turret)
501. Fedwal Government receipts, Q
511. State and local g«lfi!fiment receipts, Q
State and foc^l tovernment expenditure, Q
510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q
Current data for these series arti shown on page 90.
52
FEBRUARY 19B3
lt€l»
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I J) I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
(Aug.) (Apt)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
(Jan.) (July)
P
T
P T
I
26 «i
24222018 •
161412-
1614-
10-
8-
Department military prime contract awards
MOD moving avg.—(Merm§fl;&
1301
120110100908070-
543. Defense Department gross unpaid ob
outstanding (bil tf$f.)
6050-
4011109-
76-
548. Manufacture
w orders, defe
(bil. dol.;
Gloving avg.—6-
5-
3-
1956 57
98
59
60
61
62
63
64
6§
81
82 1983
Current date for these series are shown on page 90.
BCII FEBRUARY 1983
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC il$ASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (%r.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mir.
P
T
and: FflfeMeasures of Defense Activity [
557. Output of defense mi space equipment (fed**: 1967=100)
; 1
.„
L. .
2,1
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense prodwct^ (bit. dol.)
84
561. Manufacturers' unfitted orders, defense products (bil. dol.)
580. Defense DepartnitrtLnet outlays, milita}f$ functions a p j i j i i t a i ^
assistance (bil. I(MU MCD moving ;
588, Manufacturers' shipments, defense pro<Jucts
(bil. dol.; MCD n«?Wig avg.—4-term)
1956 57
58
Si
SO
ei
62
1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 91,
54
FEBRUARY 1983
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
1
if
ntegjipdiate and1 Fina([Measures of Defense Activity—Cd'n".]
(New.)
(ftlar.)
P
T
' 1; j[—"|
ji
ti
(Jan.) (July)
P
" 1 : "
T
":
"if
•
'
•
I
I
!
570, Employment in defence products industries (millions
1.8-
1.61.41.2-
1.0 «
Defense Department personnel (millions)
577. Military, active duty
3.5«
3.0-
578. Civilian, direct hfrt employment
2201
Defensel P h a s e s 1
200180160140-
i 564. Federal Government purchases of goods andr services
!
; defense, Q (annrrat«L-|)Mpl.)
100-
40 J
565. National defense purchases as a percent of 6NP, Q (percent)
Current data lor these series are shpwn on page 9 1 .
KCII FEBRUARY 1983
i i i B IMPORTANT EC(
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
(Apr.) (Feb.)
24-*
20-
8excluding military i t shipments
; MCO moving av^*~§-tercn)
64*1
^..ij"
agriciftural products
nonelectrical machinery
n14l( •
;:: 612. General imports ( h i ;dol.; MCD moving avgJ
I-g 6t b) 4"i •
614.
Imports of p e t r o i ^ n d petroleum ptote.% (b.L dol.)
5
1
616.
i -
j-
Imports of automobiles an<t } p : s ' ( M . do!.)
t:./i-
Current data for these series aro shown on page 92.
FEBRUARY 1983
KCII
1 SMP^ilMlI ECOWOMae RiE^iUR
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Jin.) (July)
P 7
Annual rate, billion dditrs
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
24®«
667. Balance on goods and services, Q
24® «
20® <*
Mechandise, adjusted—
622,
61S
Exports,
Merchandise trade balance, Q
Q ^
651.
Income on U.S. investments
20*
on foreign investments In
195S 97
NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
FEBRUARY 1983
57
IUI
OTHER
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F l . Industrial Production
(Aug.) (Apr.)
(Dec.) (Now.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
FT
FT
P
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
I Index: 1967-100]
280-|
260 4
Industrial production-
240 - ;
220200-
160-
7$L OECD European cduntri^s
14II--f
47. United States
722. United Kingdom
80-
liBi
57
BS
5S
S@
#1
®2
«
til
K'
1983
Current data for these serle* are shown 6n page 94.
58
FEBRUARY 1983
IICII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Chart F3. Stock Prices
(Jan.) (July)
P T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
(Jan.) (July)
P T
Percent change at annual rate
Consumer prices
Current diita for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.
BCII FEBRUARY 1983
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Q
Year
and
month
1981
I
, 940. Ratio,
{ coincident
, index to
, lagging index
910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1, 5,8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)
920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91,
95, 101, 109)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
Revised2
Revised2
Revised2
2
Revised
COMPOSITE INDEXES
Leading indicator subgroups
913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2, 3,
5)
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29) l
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
3
C)
Revised
2
915. Inventory
916. Profitinvestment
ability (series
and purchasing
19, 26, 80)
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)
(1967 = 100)
Revised
2
91?. Money
and financial
flows (series
104. 106, 111)
(1967 = 100)
Revised
2
(1967-100)
Revised2
120.6
122.0
EH23.7
94.2
94.1
94.1
110.7
109.3
109.8
100.5
100.5
100.7
98.2
98.8
H>99.0
122.2
122.1
122.2
119.0
122.2
122.4 .
123.6
120.2
120.5
94.9
94.2
94.5
110.5
109.3
107.3
101.8
102.5
102.6
98.7
98.1
98.4
123.5
123.2
123.1
122.5 ,
123.3 ,
124.7 ;
120.5
119.5
117.5
E>95.0
93.6
91.4
107.1
107.0
106.3
D102.6
102.1
101.2!
98.2
98.5
96.9
123.3
123.8
122.9
144.5
143.0
140.9
125.0
124.5
124.4
115.6
114.9
113.3
90.5
90.3
89.3
104.3
105.4
105.1
99.8
98.7
97.8
96.9
97.1
96.2
121.7
122.2
122.2
"135.1
135.7
135.2
138.4
139.9
139.2
E>126*1
125.3 i
125.2 i
109.8
111.7
111 ?
(NA)
104.2
104.2
104 6
96.7
96.5
96 5
94.5
93.2
92 6
123.3
122.1
122 5
April
May
June
136.5
136.8
136.3
138.0
138.8
137.2
125.9
125.3
124.8 '
109.15
110.3
109.9
105.7
105.2
104.2
96.4
97.1
97.6
93.1
93.0
92.4
123.0
122.8
122.2
July
August
September
137.1
136.8
138.5
136.3
135.2
134.3
124.2 '
122.2 '
121.3 '
109.7
110.6
110.7
105.0
103.7
104.5
98 ,,0
98,3 I
98.8
92.7
93.0
95.4
122.5
124.5
124 3
October
November
December
139.6
140.1
141.2
132.2
132.3
132.0
120.5'
118.3'
116.9 •
109.7
111.8
112.9
105.9
106.2
107.0
98.4
97.5
96 6
97.3
p98.3
NA)
122.5
122.5
122 9
E>»146.3
*132.8
P114.8
P108.0
p98.4
January
February
March
142.1
140.4
141.7
146.8
147.2
147.2
121.7
120.7
119.0
April
May
June
144.6
144.5
143.2
147.1
146.9
147.5
July
August
September
142.9
142.4
139.3
E>147.6
147.3
146.5
October
November
December
136.9
137.0
136.2
1982
January
February
March
1983
January
February
March
J
7
115.7
®p!25.9
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H) for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
l
Series 914 reached its high value (111.8) in September 1980.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,11 page iii.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the February 1982 issue.
"Includes a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1£)82 issue.
'Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
6
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
7
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
2
60
FEBRUARY 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ J
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L.L.L
UC.L
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
(Hours)
0)40.4
39.7
39.9
L, L, L
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing *
L, C, L
L, L, L
5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance2
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
C3)
(*)
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
1981
January
February
March
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Per 100 employees)
L, Lg, U
4. Quit rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
L, Lg, U
L. Lg, U
u.cc
60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed1
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapersL
48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ratio)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)
C3)
3.0
2.8
2.8
3.5
3.5
3.4
424
410
413
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.474
0.478
0.467
128
129
125
0)171.34
170.20
170.77
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.4
395
401
405
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
0.447
0.432
0.448
118
118
121
169.57
170.80
170.70
April
May
June
40.1
40.2
40.1
July
August
September
40.0
39.9
39.4
3.0
3.0
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
0)395
421
483
H>1.0
H>1.5
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.3
0.466
0.440
0.403
123
119
112
171.04
170.96
167.34
October
Noverrber
December
39.5
39.3
39.1
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.9
3.1
2.7
517
539
551
2.2
2.3
2.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.378
0.366
0.346
110
111
109
169.73
168.76
168.66
January
February
March
37.6
39.4
39.0
2.3
2.4
2.3
(NA)
563
514
566
(NA)
(NA)
0.338
0.317
0.289
106
103
96
165.66
168.93
167.92
April
May
June
39.0
39.1
39.2
2.4
566
585
551
0.255
0.249
0.242
88
2.3
2.4
87
85
167.23
167.99
166.52
July
August
September
39.2
39.0
38.8
2.4
2.4
2.3
r533
r605
r653
0.228
0.212
0.192
83
78
73
166.16
165.61
rl65.59
October
November
December
38.8
38.9
38.9
2.3
2.3
0.195
0.195
0.205
76
78
2.3
r651
r616
r531
83
rl64.38
rl63.43
rl64.14
p39.7
P2.3
507
p0.216
p83
P166.01
0)3.1
1982
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
^he following series reached their high values before 1981: Series 2 (3.7) in October 1980, series 60 (0.497) in November 1980, and
3
series 46 (134) in November 1980. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New
Features and Changes for This Issue" (item 2) on page iii of the February 1982 issue.
"See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,"
page iii.
I N ] I I FEBRUARY 1983
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
EMPLOYMENT ANO UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
Minor Economic
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment—Continued,
Process
u, c, c
C, C,C
42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
41, Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey
40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg.r construction)
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L, C, U
U. Lg, U
Lg, Lg, Lg
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey
43. Unemployment rate,
total
45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State program.s'
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
H, Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Weeks)
(Percent)
I, Lg, U
Lg, Lg, Lg
1981
96,544
96,803
97,148
90,909
90,913
91,014
25,588
25,501
25,588
58.38
58.43
58.58
8,048
8,032
7,967
7.5
7.4
97,487
E>97,597
97,033
91,099
91,131
91,286
25,534
25,540
25,656
H>58.80
58.72
58.31
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . ,
October
November
. . ,
December
, . ,
7.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
14.3
14.0
13.9
7,860
8,133
8,047
7.2
7.5
7.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
13.7
13.5
1,4.1
E>25,718 •
25,637 i
25,583
58.44
58.36
57.94
H>7,854
8,053
8,271
1)7.2
7.4
7.6
3.;?
>3.^
3.3
14.0
14.
13.
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
97,428
97,313
96,746
1)91,396
91,322
91,363
96,981
96,840
96,458
91,224
90,996
90,642
25,393,
25,176,
24,908,
58.02
57.88
57.51
8,673
9,025
9,389
8.0
8.3
8.6
3.5
3.8
4.1
96,309
96,328
96,230
90,460
90,459
90,304
24,684'
24,631'
24,450!
57.46
57.41
57.29
9,346
9,669
9,881
8.6
8.8
•9.0
4.1
4.1
4.3
13.4
14.0
13.9
2.2
2.5
2.7
96,128
96,548
96,310
90,083
90,166
89,839
24,289'
24,255
23,994
57.17
57.40
57.17
10,256
10,384
10,466
9.3
9.4
9.5
4., 5
4.5
4,5
14.3
14.9
16.3
2,8
3.0
3.2
96,143
96,254
96,180
89,535
r89,313
r89,264
23,840
23,657
23,530
57.06
57.06
56.92
10,828
10,931
11,315
9.8
9.9
10.2
4.5
4.7
5..0
15.6
16.1
16.6
3.2
3.3
3.5
95,763
95,670
95,682
r88,877
r88,750
r88,535
23,239
r23,081
r22,975
56.65
56,57
56.50
11,576
11,906
12,036
10.
10.
10.8
5.0
17.
17,
18.0
3.8
4.1
4.3
95,691
p88,874
p23,113
56.46
11,446
10.4
19.4
4.2
13.
13.
[H}12.9
2.
H>2.
2.1
2.1
1.1
2.2
1982
January
Februa'ry
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November
. . .
December
. . .
1983
January
February
March
p4.5
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
'Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
62
FEBRUARY 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process . . . . . . . . .
Timing Class
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and Income
C, C, C
50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars
C, C, C
C, C, C
52. Constant
(1972) dollars
51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Persona income
223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, C, C
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c, c, c
47. Index of
industrial
production,
total
(1967 = 100)
c, c, c
C, L, L
73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
C.C, C
49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
1981.
1,056.2
1,061.9
1,064.0
E>234.3
232.2
231.9
151.4
151.8
152.1
141.0
140.8
142.1
165.6
166.2
165.3
692^8
2,351.7
1,227.1
1,232.2
1,234.5
1,502!?
2,364.5
2,379.1
2,398.4
1,234.7
1,234.0
1,239.5
1,064.5
1,065.0
1,069.4
231.6
231.5
232.1
151.9
152.7
152.9
142.5
143.5
143.2
165.9
166.4
165.8
689^8
July
August
September
[H>ls5l6!4
2,436.3
2,459.6
2,478.6
1,248.1
1,253.6
1,253.1
1,071.8
0)1,078.3
1,077.9
231.8
231.2
228.9
0)153.9
153.6
151.6
0)143.6
143.4
140.9
167.1
0)167.3
165.9
0)697^2
October
November
December
l,490M
2,487.2
2,499.0
2,497.6
1,251.1
1,250.1
1,245.7
1,076.5
1,074.3
1,069.3
228.1
226.2
223.2
149.1
146.3
143.4
137.8
134.4
131.3
162.8
160.3
157.4
678!6
1,470.7
2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6
1,236.0
1,243.8
1,245.0
1,061.7
1,068.8
1,068.3
222.4
223.8
221.7
140.7
142.9
141.7
127.1
129.3
128.2
155.1
157.8
157.3
66U8
1,478^4
2,535.5
2,556.2
2,566.3
1,249.6
1,256.7
1,248.8
1,070.3
1,077.4
1,070.3
220.9
220.1
217.3
140.2
139.2
138.7
126.7
126.1
125.5
156.1
155.0
155.3
663.' 2
July
August
September
1,481.1
2,588.3
2,592.0
2,597.2
1,251.0
1,248.6
1,245.1
1,067.5
1,065.4
1,061.3
215.5
213.6
212.1
138.8
138.4
137.3
125.9
124.9
123.5
155.7
156.9
156.7
665! i
October
November
December
rl,473*9
r2,611.4
r2,631.2
r2,638.1
rl,243.5
rl,252.4
K>rl,257.4
rl.056.5
rl,062.3
rl,066.1
209.4
208.5
208.9
rl35.7
134.8
rl35.0
rl20.3
119.3
rll9.4
rl56.2
155.2
rl55.5
0)p2,638.9
pi,255.4
pi,067.5
p211.6
P136.2
P120.9
P156.3
January
February
March
1,507 .'8
April
May
June
2,308.1
2,330.1
1982
Janjary
February
Match
April
May
Jum;
r655.8
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See rote on page.60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
1
Sec! "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
HOI
FEBRUARY 1983
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Q j
PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued
L. C. U
83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)
(Percent)
82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)
Orders and Deliveries
L.C.U
84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials
(Percent)
,
U L, L
April
May
June
6. Current
dollars
(Bit. dol.)
October
November . .
December . . ,
7. Constant
(1972) dollars
L, L,L
8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
Revised1
L.L.L
L, Lg. U
L, L, L
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
Qrders, durable
gocds industries
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries (u)
(Bil. doi.)
{Bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
E>82.2
82.53
82.70
83.86
38.23
38.15
38.45
33.08
34.36
33.88
1.10
0.52
0.35
311.15
311.67
312.02
46
50
52
81.2
86.41
87.40
86.91
39.28
B>39.51
39,03
34.54
E>35.07
35.01
1.62
1.96
0.02
313.64
315.60
315.62
©56
79.8
79.3
81.1
B>87.58
84.82
84.46
39.12
37.70
37.42
34.66
33.11
32.83
1.84
-0.40
-0.22
(H>317.46
"" 317.06
316.84
46
48
43
74.8
75.2
77.19
78.59
76.42
34.08
34.47
33.47
30.75
30.05
30.05
-4.07
-1.69
-2.71
312.77
311.08
308.37
38
32
30
71.6
72.0
75.06
76.31
77.86
32.82
33.37
33.98
28.82
29.24
30.23
-0.49
-1.67
-0.26
307.88
306.21
305.95
32
36
35
70.3
69.6
76.19
75.71
74.55
33.20
32.87
32.23
29.10
30.53
30.07
-0.94
-3.81
-4.33
305.00
301.19
296.87
31
30
38
69.7
68.1
76.45
72.98
73.27
33.01
31.50
31.54
30.74
29.68
29.67
-2.59
-4.26
-3.30
294.27
290.01
286.71
37
40
40
67.6
r65.8 !
69.60
70.61
r76.59
29.93
30.25
32.75
27.71
28.11
28.21
-2.75
-2.10
r3.22
283.96
281,86
r285.08
44
40
38
p80.0!i
p34.28
p31.28
0>p3.65
p288.73
41
78
E>78
July
August
September . .
L, L, L
Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
1981
January
February . . .
March
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
*76
72
52
48
1982
January
February
March
*72
April
May
June
*71
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December , , .
p69
(NA)
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
l
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page H I .
64
FEBRUARY 1983
IU II
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
C.C.C
C, C,C
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Revised
1981
C L, U
C,L, C
75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods
U, L, U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(1967 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
• I
i l l
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued
59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
L.C.C
L, L, L
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment ©
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1st Q
1966 = 100)
2
12. Index of
net business
formation 1
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(1967 = 100)
Revised
\
L.L.L
L, L, L
2
(Number)
(a)
347,858
348,653
350,281
160,549
160,469
160,614
146.9
147.8
148.3
84,104
85,201
86,128
44,903
45,199
45,426
7U6
71.4
66.9
66.5
121.6
120.7
120.8
46,039
48,588
47,972
352,855
353,698
[fi>356,524
161,180
160,775
E>161,968
148.9
150.7
150.3
86,263
86,361
87,299
45,259
45,074
45,421
63.0
72.4
76.3
73.1
121.9
119.1
117.3
49,413
48,997
49,172
July . . .
August
September
355,236
354,520
353,725
160,810
159,755
159,193
0)150.7
149.6
147.8
87,292
87,961
87,823
45,135
45,317
44,945
7l!5
74.1
E>77.2
73.1
118.2
118.7
117.6
49,038
48,631
48,450
October
November
December
346,605
344,943
341,330
155,344
155,069
153,281
146.5
144.0
142.0
86,413
86,733
86,572
44,088
44,161
43,990
62^8
70.3
62.5
64.3
114.8
117.4
115.2
47,947
H>49,413
47,556
January
February
March
334,579
340,571
342,121
150,131
153,317
153,878
139.6
141.8
141.5
85,320
87,418
87,242
43,026
44,173
44,128
68! 6
71.0
66.5
62.0
113.2
115.6
113.5
43,330
47,234
46,899
April
May
June
339,835
349,096
346,126
152,207
155,982
153,903
142.1
143.6
144.8
88,294
90,841
88,042
44,638
45,764
43,955
67!8
65.5
67.5
65.7
115.6
115.2
113.1
46,876
46,995
45,936
July
August
September
344,603
339,464
339,470
153,618
151,683
151,612
145.8
144.1
143.4
89,445
88,502
89,326
44,478
43,965
44,265
6^5
65.4
65.4
69.3
112.7
112.1
110.5
44,525
46,981
45,552
October
November
December
332,537
r335,804
p332,713
148,162
150,261
pl49,528
142.2
141.1
rl42.0
90,290
JH>r92,546
r91,482
44,544
E>H5,792
r45,378
73.4
72.1
71.9
111.6
113.0
111.1
45,530
48,474
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P143.3
p91,575
p45,537
70.4
P113.1
January
February
March
April
May
June
1982
E>r77!5
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
J
Series 12 reached its high value (122.7) in December 1980.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.
Kill
FEBRUARY 1983
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
Q |
PROCESS
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
Minor Economic
Business Investment Commitments
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L, L, L
Contracts and orders for plant
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
9. Construction contracts for com-
11. Newly
and equipment
capital goods industries, nondefense
mercial and industrial b u i l d i n g s 1 2
approved capital
capital appropria-
appropriations,
tions, 1,000
97. Backlog of
10. Current
20. Constant
24. Current
27. Constant
Square feet of
Square meters of
1,000 manu-
manufacturing
dollars
(1972) dollars1
dollars
(1972) dollars 1
floor space
floor s p a c e 3
facturing corpora-
corporations
tions
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised'*
Revised*
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
28.70
25.75
28.23
14.91
12.76
14.20
25.06
21.86
24.46
13.32
11.06
12.56
83.72
83.86
83.79
7.78
7.79
7.78
27.70
E)30.24
28.54
28.38
15.03
14.29
14.02
H>25.69
24.49
24.04
13.05
12.53
12.14
79.64
84.75
81.01
7.40
7.87
7.53
(H)28.06
28.62
28.27
27.92
13.65
14.30
14.29
24.66
24.87
24.31
11.94
12.83
12.75
73.46
78.67
68.12
6.82
7.31
6.33
26^94
26.96
27.88
26.66
13.58
14.31
13.91
22.53
24.37
22.13
11.68
12.80
11.98
74.26
70.77
70.65
6.90
6.57
6.56
22.99
26.62
25.12
25.78
13.40
12.05
13.03
21.72
21.56
22.17
11.32
10.54
11.49
r58.18
r63.29
r61.15
r5.40
r5.88
r5.68
25.*77
13.76
11.56
11.08
22.61
20.33
19.28
12.54
10.28
9.35
r58.93
r53.71
r64.87
r5.47
r4.99
June
25.48
23.33
23.31
July
August
September
23.33
23.03
24.54
10.96
11.30
12.25
20.32
18.89
20.27
9.68
9.53
10.43
r57.80
r59.78
r55.95
r5.37
r5.55
r5.20
pl8.'H
23.51
23.82
24.84
11.99
11.40
13.00
20.18
20.17
r20.15
10.57
9.88
rll.06
r54.65
r50.69
r49.55
r5.08
r4.71
r4.60
(NA)
p23.97
pll.75
p21.12
plO.58
66.89
6.21
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Bil. dol.)
C)
1981
January
C Lg, Lg
U, Lg, U
L, C, U
L, L, L
L, L, L
L, L, L
93'.44
96! 18
[H>97.'34
92^74
1982
January
February
March
April
May
October
November
December
9l!ii
19.33
r6.03
82^82
p73.82
(NA)
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
x
The following
series reached their high values before
series 9 (90.80 square feet and 8.44
produced without written permission
Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
1981: Series 20
square meters) in November 1980.
from McGraw-Hill
2
(15.66) in December
This
1980, series 27
is a copyrighted
Information Systems Company, F.W.
(14.12) in December
1980, and
series used by permission; it may not be re-
Dodge Division.
3
Converted
to metric units by the
''See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
FEBRUARY 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j FIXED
Minor Economic
Process
CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
Timing Class
C Lg, Lg
C Lg, U
61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures
76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C Lg, Lg
Year
and
month
C Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C Lg, C
Nonresidentia 1 fixed investment ir 1972 dollars
86. Total
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
87. Structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
28. New
private housing
units started,
total
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
L, L, L
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits1
(1967 = 100)
L, L, L
89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 2
1981
January
February
March
312.24
332.78
331.57
344.52
177.7
177.5
179.3
169 '.7
49*5
120.1
1,588
1,279
1,305
99.8
96.6
94.7
tH>49*6
April
May
June
316.73
344.36
345.78
353.20
181.0
182.0
183.6
170*1
51*6
119.1
1,332
1,150
1,047
95.8
95.2
79.6
47*3
July
August
September
[H)328.25
348.42
357.31
H>360.38
0)184.8
184.4
182.7
173.9
52*5
l>12i"4
1,035
949
900
76.0
70.9
67.4
42.9
October
November
December
327 .s83
349.27
358.67
356.78
180.5
179.0
179.0
E>174.*2
53*3
120.9
866
839
906
59.6
60.0
64.4
39*9
January
February
March
327*72
330.07
342.57
343.72
172.2
171.6
169.0
172.0
53.5
118*5
877
911
920
64.9
64.0
68.7
38*9
April
May
June
323*22
325.51
335.59
331.34
164.9
159.9
156.7
166.7
[H>53.*7
113*6
911
1,028
910
71.0
76.3
75.0
40.1
July
August
September
315!79
323.71
314.09
320.97
154.9
153.9
150.5
163.*4
53*6
110.4
1,185
1,046
1,134
85.8
71.7
81.0
39*5
October
November
December
a315.21
309.21
r310.90
P315.49
rl47.1
rl46.6
M47.5
rl60.0
r52.2
rlO7*.9
1,142
1,361
1,263
94.7
96.3
105.4
r42'.5
(NA)
pl47.4
E)pl,716
119.4
1982
1983
January
February
March
a316*40
April
May
June
a320.00
July
August
September
.
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
x
Series 29 reached its high value (119.9) in September 1980.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
FEBRUARY 1983
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventories on Hand and on Order
Inventory Investment
L, L, L
L. L, L
IL.L
L, L, L
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars
31. Change
in book value
of mf(|. and
trade inventories; total
38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and cm
order, mfg.2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Smoothed
Monthly
data
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised
3
(Ann. rate,
bilj dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
70. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, lg, Lg
I, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade
78, Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
or:er, mfg.
(Bil. dol.)
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
3
3
Revised
1981
2.4
-15.14
15.31
-5;82
-6.36
-5.79
-1.92
0.58
0.77
-0.34
485.40
490.29
492.40
262.33
263.33
263.10
79.42
80.55
82.36
1.63
1.64
1.64
222.47
223.24
222.90
-0.13
12.1
|H>18.37
16.88
0.62
3.63
7.92
1.31
1.64
0.55
494.18
497.81
501.53
263.41
264.70
265.92
82.10
83.65
84.00
1.63
1.65
1.64
224.21
225,85
226.40
5.68
4.98
14.94
E>12.68
11.41
8.86
1.88
-1.09
1.12
504.74
510.10
515.35
266.53
267.56
269.42
84.22
85.65
"86.86
1.66
1.67
1.69
228.28
227.19
[H)228.32
-0.94
7.43
5.01
-2.18
34.7
40.0
1-26.2
-2.71
-1.26
-1.22
518.24
0)521.57
519.39
270.47
B>271.17
269.85
88.05
1)88.50
87.66
1.74
1.75
1.76
225.61
224.35
223.13
-8.68
-13.49
-22.97
-25.08
'-37.7
-28.2
-10.2
-2.96
-2.64
-2.11
516.26
513.91
513.05
267.69
266.45
265.98
86.84
87.90
88.49
1.78
1.74
1.73
220.17
217.53
215.42
-4,. 4
-7.33
-27.00
-7.33
-18.77
-14.37
-14.11
24.2
-54.7
29.6
-1.67
-2.33
-4.04
515.07
510.52
512.98
266.54
264.54
265.18
87.39
86.56
85.90
1.75
1.70
1.72
213.75
211.42
207.39
July
August
September . . .
3.4
1.02
-12.78
2.63
-12.50
-8.73
-4.70
4.9
14,0
10.1
-0.80
-2.21
-2.02
513.39
514.55
515.40
265.56
265.46
266.03
86.61
86.68
86.40
1.73
1.75
1.75
206.59
204.38
202.36
October
November . . .
December . . .
r-18.7
-16.38
-40.51
p-15.96
-5.94
-13.46
p-21.18
-14.1
M7.1
p-36.6
-1.90
r-1.56
p-1.19
514.22
r508.63
p505.58
r265.24
r262.28
p261.40
86.37
r85,41
83.52
©1.79
1.75
1.75
r20Q.47
r 198.91
p!97.72
<NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
[H>16.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
4.8
-2.92
-20.29
1982
January
February
March
-15.4
April
May
June
-33.56
-27.19
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June . . . ' , . . ,
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, ;ind 27.
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
^Series 38 reached its high value (1.97) in July 1980.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
FEBRUARY 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
g j
Vlinor Economic
Process
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Timing Class
98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
materials
Year
and
month
L. L,L
U, L, L
L, L, L
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials1 2
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
L. L, L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed
data 2 'J
Monthly
data *
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks <u)
@
(Percent)
(Percent)
(1941-43 = 10)
L, L, L
L.L.L
Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
L.CL
L. C L
Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj *
79. Current
18. Constant
(1972) dollars * dollars
80. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
|H>56.*8
L. L,L
22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic
income2
(Percent)
(1967-100)
n
1981
(Percent)
Profits and Profit Margins
(5)
-1.81
-2.50
0.64
291.6
284.2
289.8
-1.60
-2.08
0.92
0.16
-0.80
-1.15
132.97
128.40
133.19
E>16i.*6
84^6
rlO8!9
0.94
0.10
0.30
293.0
288.9
282.9
0.83
-0.37
-0 f 45
-0.52
0.17
0.23
134.43
131.73
132.28
146 .'2
74^2
105^9
-1.19
-1.34
-2.37
286.6
289.5
?83 0
-0.25
-0.41
- 1 91
-0.18
-0.36
-0.61
129.13
129.63
15CL8
75^4
Il6l7
55^6
S.Q
118.27
-1.08
-2.18
-0.72
277.2
270.5
264.2
-1.14
-1.88
-1.05
-1.00
-1.40
-1.50
119.80
122.92
123.79
14419
7i *2
e>n2!3
5b\5
8*i
January
February
March
0.87
-1.40
-0.22
263.4
261.0
254.5
0.35
-0.97
-0.89
-1.11
-0.71
-0.53
117.28
114.50
110.84
115*6
56\3
106 .'4
49.*2
6.*7
April
May
June
-0.76
0.11
0.29
247.4
245.5
232.2
-1.21
-0.18
-1.45
-0.76
-0.89
-0.85
116.31
116.35
109.70
116.3
56.2
106.6
48.5
...
6.7
July
August
September
-0.33
-2.46
-0.26
237.0
236.2
239.0
0.41
-1.38
0.19
-0.68
-0.61
-0.53
109.38
109.65
122.43
119*4
57* i
105.3
56!4
6*9
October
November
December
-0.08
-0.64
0.15
235.5
230.4
227.4
-0.46
-0.98
-0.28
-0.40
-0.48
-0.50.
132.66
138.10
139.37
(NA)
<NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
232.1
240.3
2.03
-0.16
January
February
March
April .
May
June ,
July .
August
September
..
October
November
December
9.*8
S.S
1982
.
1983
January
February
March
E>2.73
6
E>144.27
7
145.61
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
beginning with June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 2The following series reached high values before 1981: Series 23 (304.7) in November 1980, series 99
(2.92, monthly) in August 1980 and (1.96, smoothed) in September 1980, series 18 (84.2) in III Q 1980, and series 22 (9.9) in IV Q 1980.
3
See footnote 1 on page 68. 4IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
(Continued on page 70.)
ROI
FEBRUARY 1983
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
I, L, I.
81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income l
15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations
(Percent)
(Cents)
Revised
1981
L, L, L
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins-Continued
U, L,L
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued
U,L
L.L.L
26. Ratio, price
Net cash flow, corporate
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector 34. Current
35. Constant
dollars
(1972) dollars
(1977-100)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations
(1977 = 100)
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg. Lg
18. Lg, Lg
62. Index of labor ccst per
unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
(1967-100}
2
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
incoie
(Percent)
<?erceit)
C2)
January
February
March
6.0
4.9
0)98.2
G>279.0
D141.2
139.0
1.267
202.6
203.6
204.4
IOC. 6
100.4
100.1
74.9
April .
May .
June .
6.0
fi>5.'6
97.9
267.7
132.0
141.5
1.289
206.1
207.4
208.9
100.2
100.1
100,1
75.3
July
August
September . . .
B>6.1
4.8
98.1
276.5
133.9
144.2
1.315
208.9
209.9
212.6
99.4
99.1
99.7
74.9
October
November . . .
December . . .
5.9
4.4
97.7
277.5
131.8
147.9
1.349
216.6
219.9
222.5
100.8
101.7
102.2
75.4
January .
February
March . .
5.7
3.9
96.7
254.9
120.6
150.9
1.376
227.9
226.0
225.8
(R>103.9
102.4
101.6
[H>76.4
April .
May
June
5.6
3.7
96.5
263.5
123.3
152.9
1.388
228.0
230.7
231.3
101.9
102.4
102.0
76.3
July . . . .
August . .
September
6,0
3.5
96.8
272.6
128.6
153.8
E)1.392
230.2
229.6
229.7
100.9
100.0
99.4
76.1
CNA)
(NA)
r97.0
(NA)
CNA)
E)rl54.4
CNA)
231^0
E)r231.7
r230,9
99.3
98.9
c
)7.9
CNA)
P231.2
P97.4
1982
October
November . . ,
December . . .
1983
January .
February
March . ,
April . . .
May . . .
June . . .
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
l
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Continued from page 69: sSee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
"Average for February 2, 9, 16, and 23.
70
6
Average for February :l-22, excluding weekends.
FEBRUARY 1983
s
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
Q j
PROCESS
Minor Economic
MONEY AND CREDIT
Money
Process .
Titling Class
L, L, L
L, C, U
85. Change in
102. Change
money supply
in money
supply (M2)
(Ml)
Credit Flows
Velocity of Money
Lt L, L
L, L, L
104. Change in total liquid assets
Year
Monthly
Smoothed
and
data
data 1
105. Money
supply (Ml)
in 1972
dollars
L, L, L
C, Lg, C
C.C.C
106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml)
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)
month
(Percent)
Revised13
(Percent)
Revised3
(Percent)
Revised
(Percent)
3
Revised
3
(Bil. dol.)
Revised3
(Bil. dol.)
Revised
3
(Ratio)
Revised
(Ratio)
3
Revised"1
1981
L.L.L
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(3)
0.82
0.36
1.19
0.57
0.75
1.36
1.13
0.87
0.82
0.94
0.97
0.93
200.3
199.1
200.4
798.4
796.8
803.1
6.8U
1.386
1.389
1.383
55.82
60.60
46.93
E>2.10
-0.95
-0.19
1.30
0.53
0.49
0.72
1.12
0.95
0.87
0.84
0.91
203.7
200.2
198.4
810.1
808.1
806.1
6.744
1.372
1.373
1.378
54.62
42.05
47.48
0.23
0.40
0.02
0.74
1.07
0.33
0.95
©1.16
0.68
0.97
1.01
0.98
196.6
195.8
193.7
802.8
804.9
798.9
0)6.923
1.389
1.388
1.394
60.85
34.20
26.76
0.39
0.60
1.08
0.63
0.95
0.80
0.88
1.01
0.64
0.92
0.90
0.87
193.9
194.2
195.5
789.3
793.1
796.4
6.879
0)1.410
1.403
1.391
22.79
21.66
5.14
1.63
0.04
0.13
0.85
0,31
0.72
0.85
0.89
0.92
0.85
0.81
0.84
198.1
198.1
198.4
800.9
802.8
808.9
6.685
1.381
1.384
1.377
22,08
16.39
3.54
0.16
0.69
0.22
0.34
0.84
0.76
0.64
1.00
1.06
0.85
0.84
0.88
198.2
197.6
195.9
809.7
808.2
805.7
6.742
1.382
1.381
1.376
3-74
3722
r-9.77
0.87
1.21
0.70
1.07
0.91
0.94
0.97
[H>1.03
0.94
195.2
196.3
198.2
807.9
815.2
820.1
6.734
September
0.22
0.86.
1.07
1.376
1.362
1.355
r-5.96
r-7.22
r-3.37
October
November
December
1.21
1.13
0.91
0.65
0.79
0.73
eO.77
e0.77
e0.29
e0.81
e0.73
e0.66
199.7
202.0
204.4
822.0
828.5
836.8
6.546
1.353
1,353
1.347
r-55.37
-9.05
p-23.51
p0.84
"1.75
H>p2.47
eO.97
e0.64
E>p205.7
|H>p856.0
pi.315
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1982
January
February . . t
March
April
May
June
July
August
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 3 1 , and 32.
1
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Series 33 reached its high value (82.61) in October 1980.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
''Average for weeks ended February 2, 9, and 16.
2
3
B O ) FEBRUARY 1983
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows—Continued
Timing Class
L, L, L
112. Net change 113. Net
in bank loans
change in
to businesses
consumer installment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, L, L
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
111. Change
in credit outstandingbusiness and
consumer
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
percent)
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
li, U L
110. Total
privaie
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L, L, L
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures1©
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates
Bank Reserves
L, L, L
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans
(Percent)
L, U, U
L. Lg, U
C Lg, Lg
L. Lg. Lg
94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve @
113. Federal
funds rate ©
114. Treasury
bill rate ©
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
93. Free
reserves ©
C)
1981
6.31
-7.09
-18.96
14.47
22.14
35.65
7.5
6.5
4.4
320,608
341.36
789.20
485.34
2.42
2.51
2.53
-1,028
-1,023
-719
1,3(86
1,301
994
19.08
15.93
14.70
14.72
14.90
13.48
April
May
June
35.71
41.36
32.80
32.66
18.85
24.37
10.6
H>11.5
8.8
536.88
428.20
408.54
2.40
2.40
2.30
-1,136
H)-1,968
-1,700
1,338
©392,040
E>2,220
2,039
15.72
18.52
!8>19.10
13.63
[H}16.30
14.56
July . . . .
August
September
41.10
28.34
22.93
18.61
29.14
318,116
E)35.70
9.9
9.2
9.3
619.46
450.41
752.34
2.22
2.35
2.28
-1,335
-1,122
-1,035
1,679
1,417
1,451
19.04
17.82
15.87
14.70
15.61
14,95
October
November
December
13.62
13.32
23 36
12.02
7.20
-0 40
3.6
3.7
3 5
247,540
897.94
618.76
626 74
2.37
2.42
2 37
-871
-348
-330
1,149
695
642
15.08
13.31
12 37
13.87
11.27
10 93
46.64
5.32
0.90
11.88
7.3
7.0
3.6
(NA)
ED 58.09
9.40
r255,632
2.48
2.39
2.24
-1,101
-1,414
-1,254
1,526
1,713
1,611
13.22
14.78
14.68
12.41
13.78
12.49
April
May
June
54.30
40.56
40.80
14.10
16.79
16.19
5.9
5.9
1.9
r310,ifJ8
2.20
2.21
E>2.16
-1,307
-745
-895
1,531
1,105
1,205
14.94
14.45
14.15
12.8?
12.15
12.11
July
August
September
9.59
4.88
40.56
6.84
0.79
13.10
-2.0
1.8
1.4
r253,148
2.19
2.21
?. 19
-378
-199
-592
669
510
976
12.59
10.12
10.31
11.91
9.01
8.20
October
November
December
13.60
r-25.63
r-21.10
-3.89
30.28
26.30
-4.5
-5.4
p-5.5
p253,064
2.24
2.23
2.18
-51
-177
r-197
455
579
r697
9.71
9.20
8.95
7.75
8.04
8.01
P45.18
S
8.52
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p46
p500
*526
8.68
"8.53
January
February
March
1982
January
February
March
1983
January
February
March
3
7.81
8.13
April'
May . .
June
July . , .
August . . . .
September
October . . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
1
z
Series 14 reached its high value (239.34) in November 1980.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page H i .
'Average for
5
week:; ended February 2, 9, and 16.
''Average for weeks ended February 2, 9, 16, and 23.
Average for weeks ended February 3, 10, 17,
and 24,
72
FEBRUARY 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class . .
Interest Rates—Continued
Lg, Lg, l.g
116. Corporate
bond yields (u)
Year
and
month
C Lg, Lg
U, Lgr Lg
g, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
115. Treasury 117. Municipal 118, Secondary 67. Bank rates
on short-term
bond yields (u) bond yields <u) market yields
on FHA
business loans
mortgages <§)
(Percent)
Outstanding Debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
®
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks (u)
66. Consumer
installment
credit
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg. Lg, Lg
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
95. Ratio,
101. Constant
(1972) dollars
consumer installment credit
to personal
income
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1
C)
1981
20.16
19.43
18.05
307,415
309,260
312,231
211,868
212,042
210,434
88,611
87,802
86,350
13.32
13.27
13.28
19^99
17.15
19.61
20.03
314,953
316,524
318,555
214,229
220,579
224,215
86,979
89,339
90,592
13.30
13.28
16.76
17.96
B>18.55
H>2i'.ii
20.39
IH>20.50
20.08
320,106
322,534
325,509
228,589
233,595
238,491
91,914
93,851
96,050
13.14
13.11
13.13
12.83
11.89
12.91
17.43
15.98
16.43
n!23
18.45
16.84
15.75
326,511
327,111
327,078
240,950
243,580
246,544
96,923
98,178
99,253
13.13
13.09
13.10
13.73
13.63
12.98
0)13.28
12.97
12.82
17.38
17.10
16.41
17^13
15.75
16.56
16.50
327,521
327,596
328,586
.252,207
257,139
259,225
100,681
102,568
103,607
13.11
13.03
13.05
15.62
15.37
15.96
12.84
12.67
13.32
12.59
11.95
12.45
16.31
16.19
16.73
n'.ii
16.50
16.50
16.50
329,761
331,160
332,509
264,353
269,437
271,083
105,657
107,474
107,872
13.01
12.96
12.96
July
August
September
15.75
14.64
13.78
12.97
12.15
11.48
12.28
11.23
10.66
16.29
14.61
14.03
13*27
16.26
14.39
13.50
333,079
333,145
334,237
271,523
272,315
274,083
107,662
108,019
109,066
12.87
12.85
12.87
October
November
December
12.63
11.89
12.15
10.51
10.18
10.33
9.69
10.06
9.96
12.99
12.82
12.80
1K26
12.52
11.85
11.50
333,913
336,436
H>338,628
E)274,696
268,3^0
263,810
|H>109,093
106,412
104,521
12.79
rl2.79
P12.84
10.37
10.61
3
9.50
9.58
12.87
11.00
"11.00
(NA)
p266,693
plO5,873
January
February
March
14.01
14.60
14.49
11.65
12.23
12.15
9.68
10.10
10.16
14.23
14.79
15.04
19.91
April
May
June
15.00
15.68
14.97
12.62
12.96
12.39
10.62
10.78
10.67
15.91
16.33
16.31
July
August
September
15.67
16.34
D16.97
13.05
13.61
H>14.14
11.14
12.26
12.92
October
November
December
16.96
15.53
' 15.55
14.13
12.68
12.88
January
February
March
16.34
16.35
15.72
April
May
.une
13.32
1982
1983
January
February
March
2
12.04
12.13
2
(NA)
April
May
Jjne
July
August
September
October
November
December
<
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
Average for weeks ended February 4, 11, 18, and 25.
3
Average for weeks ended February 3, 10, 17, and 24.
"Average for February 1-25.
ItCII
FEBRUARY 1983
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
H I
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
HI)
Year
and
month
1981
DIFFUSION INDEXES
'952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91,
95, 101, 109)
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
Revised2
Revised2
Revised2
Revised2
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
Revised2
Revised2
961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)
962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th l
(51 areas)
963. Number of employees on pr.-vate
nonagricultura! payrolls
(186 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-minth
span
1 month
span
6-month
span
8.3
33.3
58.3
75.0
54.2
58.3
100.0
87.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.3
25.0
41.7
16.7
66.7
33.3
90.0
7.5
60.0
95.0
87.5
77.5
86.3
39.2
31.4
76.5
81.4
70.6
56.7
48.7
51.1
64.8
65.9
67.2
100.0
41.7
25.0
45.8
58.. 3
33.3
50.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
50.0
83.3
66.7
41.7
66.7
50.0
66.7
72.5
77.5
22.5
60.0
17.5
5.0
64.7
78.4
17.6
1.9.6
19.6
5.9
68.3
55.3
54.0
67.7
67.2
67.5
33.3
41.7
8.3
8.3
16.7
8.3
75.0
25.0
37.5
50.0
25.0
12.5
66.7
50.0
83.3
83.3
66.7
66.7
35.0
35.0
15.0
15.0
12.5
5.0
68.6
58.8
9.8
17.6
9.8
27.5
59.9
50.3
50.3
51.3
39.0
33.9
25.0
50.0
29.2
8.3
8.3
25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
75.0
66.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
50.0
62.5
20.0
30.0
7.5
5.0
5.0
60.8
49.0
22.5
11.8
5.9
7.8
34.7
28.2
31.2
30.1
27.7
24.2
January
February
March
45.8
58.3
41.7
41.7
41.7
54.2
0.0
87.5
37.5
0.0
50.0
50,0
75.0
33.3
50.0
41.7
33.3
33.3
5.0
95.0
12.5
12.5
42.5
30.0
96.1
24.5
5.9
11.8
31.4
43.1
32.5
42.5
35,8
21.8
27.4
27.4
April .
May
June
66.7
41.7
41.7
66.7
50.0
45.8
25.0
75.0
0.0
50.0
0.0
0.0
58.3
41.7
50.0
33.3
33.3
33.3
42.5
75.0
72/5
30.0
40.0
77.5
62.7
68.6
19.6
15.7
23.5
9.8
40.9
51.1
32.0
29.8
28.8
30.1
July
August
September
54.2
58.3
58.3
50.0
50.0
54.2
25.0
0.0
12.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
33.3
33.3
41.7
33.3
16.7
16.7
45.0
25.0
35.0
32.5
r45.0
p85.0
67.6
9.8
17.6
r!7.6
p72.5
CNA)
43.5
37.6
43.0
24.2
r21.0
r23.9
October
November
December
62.5
58.3
54.2
"100.0
0.0
50.0
50.0
"16.7
25.0
8.3
25.0
5
p28.8
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
.......
.
1982
0.0
52.5
r67.5
r50.0
88.2
60.8
p76.5
26.1
r34.9
r37.4
p92.5
CNA)
P53.2
1983
January
February
March
3
90.0
"100.0
s
25.0
,
April .
May
June
July . . . . . . . . . . .
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans; 1-month indexes are placed on th« 26 month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the ?d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships 3r order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "a", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Figures are the percent of components declining.
See "New Features and Changer; for This Issue/1 page iii.
Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
"•Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
2
74
FEBRUARY 1983
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q
| DIFFUSION NOEXES—Continued
Year
and
month
964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (34 industries)
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-quarter
span
January
February
March
41.2
52.9
58.8
88.2
73.5
70.6
56
April
64.7
52.9
50.0
50.0
47.1
35.3
53
32.4
20.6
20.6
33
September
47.1
26.5
47.1
October
November
December
26.5
58.8
32.4
29.4
20.6
14.7
30
January
February
March
47.1
50.0
35.3
23.5
20.6
41.2
48
April
20.6
38.2
35.3
27
June
48.5
67.6
35.3
July
August
September
50.0
32.4
58.8
26.5
r29.4
p52.9
October
November
December
41.2
64.7
r38 2
4-Q moving
average
966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials ©
(13 industrial materials)
968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocksl ©
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
960. Net profits,
manufacturing2 ®
(about 600 companies)
(4-quarter span)
1981
May
June
July
August
79.2
70.8
58.3
30.8
30.8
65.4
38.5
38.5
46.2
66.0
42.5
85.8
79.2
67.3
59.6
*60
49
83.3
62.5
45.8
54.2
58.3
45.8
69.2
26.9
38.5
46.2
46.2
53.8
81.1
30.2
67.3
59.6
44.2
42.3
59
43
56.2
62.5
45.8
31.3
20.8
16,7
61.5
61.5
42.3
61.5
42.3
23.1
19.2
40.4
0.0
46.2
32.7
9.6
•49
*41
87.5
52.1
12.5
8.3
8.3
• 10.4
38.5
26.9
46.2
23.1
23.1
15.4
58.7
65.4
67.3
14.4
10.6
34.6
p48
*34
20.8
8.3
20.8
0.0
12.5
33.3
42.3
34.6
38.5
15.4
30.8
26.9
10.6
34.6
28.8
34.6
42.3
38.5
50
p39
33.3
75.0
31.3
41.7
37.5
33.3
30.8
34.6
23.1
26.9
19.2
19.2
88.5
54.8
11.5
18.0
56.0
79.6
(NA)
(NA)
20.8
41.7
54.2
p50
60.4
52.1
41.7
r33.3
25.0
r41.7
61.5
53.8
61.5
26.9
15.4
23.1
52.9
26.5
100.0
87.8
87.8
89.8
(NA)
r25.0
r31.3
r54.2
p37.5
46.2
30.8
46.2
50.0
98.0
85.7
51.0
...
1982
May
1983
p87.5
61.5
76.9
63.3
Iff
111
p67.6
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
'Based on 53 industries through May 1981, on 52 industries through August 1982, on 50 industries in September 1982, and on 49 industries
thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
FEBRUARY 1983
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued
Q |
Year
and
quarter
1
971, New order:;, manufac, turing' ©
970. Business axpenditures for new plant and
equipment (22 industries)
a, Actual
expenditures
b. Later
anticipations
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Contmued
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
62
62
54
57
56
66
73
59
61
73
62
68
66
72
80
63
67
68
70
62
62
74
74
76
76
60
66
60
60
70
69
74
72
70
74
71
68
78
76
80
80
52
50
52
(NA)
60
68
64
60
53
52
52
(NA)
61
66
66
60
63
58
57
(NA)
65
70
72
65
(4-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
77.3
59.1
50.0
54.5
54.5
45.5
74
63
60
60
66
75
36.4
40.9
81.8
59.1
81.8
77.3
72.7
63.6
72.7
36.4
72.7
40.9
54.5
59.1
70.5
68.2
77.3
68.2
54.5
34.1
27.3
(NA)
59.1
22.7
27.3
50.0
594
59.1
65.9
59.1
,
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
c, Early
anticipations
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade @
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and rade' ©
(4-Q span)
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
57
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
45.5
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . , . ,
68
64
66
K M DIFFUSION NOEXES—Continued
Voir
rear
and
quarter
974. Number o employees,
manufacturing i nd trade' (§)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade • @
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
97(i. Selling prices, manu
factoring l ®
977, Selling prices, wholesale
trade' ©
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
978, Selling pric«s, retail
trade l ®
Actuai
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
513
54
53
51
54
56
48
50
67
61
64
60
62
70
53
56
90
88
90
90
37
90
33
36
92
90
92
90
90
92
87
88
92
91
94
90
90
93
84
90
51
53
52
52
56
54
56
55
62
64
62
63
63
61
66
64
88
86
84
82
38
90
39
34
90
88
84
82
90
89
89
84
94
90
86
86
90
90
92
87
48
46
46
(NA)
50
51
51
48
58
52
52
(NA)
54
56
56
50
72
68
63
(MA)
{30
72
67
68
(NA)
82
78
72
68
78
75
74
(NA)
82
81
76
72
1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . .
76
58
(56
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
50
52
i55
68
69
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjuster except for those,
indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun S Bradstrect, Inc. Dun f,
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
76
FEBRUARY 1983
RCI)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
| Q
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components
1982
June
July
August
1983
September
November
October
December r
January* 3
o
+
961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)
+
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 20 components
39.2
o
39.2
39.0
38.8
(72)
(45)
(25)
(35)
38.6
37.6
o
38.8
+
38.9
(50)
(68)
(52)
38.9
39.7
(92)
Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
+
+
38.7
37.8
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
+
+
40.4
38.9
+
o
40.6
38.9
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
-
39.4
39.6
+
+
Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment
+
+
39.5
41.6
+
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
o
-
40.2
38.6
+
+
39.5
38.4
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
+
37.8
35.1
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
+
+
42.0
37.1
41.9
37.0
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
o
o
41.0
44.1
40.9
43.3
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products
+
+
40.1
35.7
+
38.2
37.9
38.5
37.4
+
38.0
37.5
+
+
r38.5
37.6
o
o
38.5
37.6
+
+
40.6
39.0
40.3
38.8
40.2
37.8
o
+
40.2
38.0
o
+
40.2
38.2
+
40.0
38.8
+
+
41.5
39.0
39.5
39.8
39.2
39.5
38.8
39.0
+
+
38.9
39.2
+
o
r39.0
39.2
+
+
39.2
39.3
+
+
39.6
39.7
39.8
41.0
39.3
40.5
38.8
39.8
+
+
39.0
40.1
+
+
39.2
40.8
+
39.3
39.9
+
+
39.9
41,3
40.1
38.6
39.8
38.3
39.4
38.6
•o
r39.2
38.6
+
+
39.6
38.5
+
+
40.4
39.1
39.2
38.0
o
39.2
36.7
38.4
35.0
+
+
40.3
36.6
40.1
38.7
+
o
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
..
....
o
+
+
+
39.5
36.8
37.7
35.2
+
+
o
+
40.2
36.1
39.1
38.1
+
+
39.4
39.7
+
38.2
35.0
38.1
35.2
+
+
38.2
35.0
+
+
r38.6
r35.1
41.7
36.8
41.5
37.0
+
+
41.7
36.9
+
r41.6
37.1
o
41.5
37.1
+
+
41.7
37.5
40.9
43.9
+
+
41.2
44.0
40.8
43.3
+
40.6
r43.9
+
+
41.0
44.5
+
+
41.2
45.3
39.6
35.7
39.0
35.2
+
+
r39.3
r35.9
+
39.7
35.5
+
+
40.3
36.2
+
70,607
+
76,593
+
80,051
39.7
36.0
39.7
39 0
964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
- 74,550
+
(35)
Percent rising of 34 components
76,446
-
72,982
+
(32)
(50)
73,266
-
(59)
r39.4
38.0
o
l2
69,598
(65)
(41)
(68)
(38)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
+
-
8,617
9,389
+
-
8,660
9,368
-
8,178
8,897
-
7,983
8,668
-
6,943
8,297
+
-
7,466
8,186
+
6,655
8,426
+
+
8,277
8,921
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
- 13,015
- 11,705
+
12,876
12,396
+
-
13,091
11,572
+
+
13,978
12,025
-
13,824
11,115
+
12,970
12,193
+
12,488
12,473
+
-
13,109
11,877
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+ 16,347
- 15,477
+
+
17,515
15,631
-
16,084
15,160
+
14,828
15,784
-
14,267
15,152
+
14,567
15,225
+
-
21,732
14,819
+
+
22,193
15,674
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( f ) ~ rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
The "r" indicates revised: " p " ,
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
2
IUII FEBRUARY 1983
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
1983
1982
Diffusion index components
July
June
August
September
October
November
December**
Januaryp
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
{1967-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components * ..
138.7
+.
(54)
138.8
138.4
137.3
135.7
134.8
135.0
(60)
(52)
(42)
(25)
(31)
(54)
(88)
120.3
156.7
119.9
155.7
117.2
154.3
119.1
152.4
+
+
120.5
152.7
(NA)
(NA)
127.8
62.7
f
•»•
136,2
Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
112.2
152.5
+
+
116.9
154.5
Clay, glass, and stone products ...
Primary metals
126.1
72.8
+
+
126.9
72.9
+
o
128.8
72.9
130.4
73.2
128.1
69.6
127.3
63.6
+
Fabricated metal products ..
Nonelectrical machinery
115.0
147.4
+•
115.5
+
114.3
147.2
112.3
144.9
107.6
140.4
107.0
139.6
-
147.1
106.6
138.0
+
-
107.6
137.9
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment ..
170.8
111.6
+
170.3
112.7
-
169.7
107.0
167.0
105.3
165.4
100.8
165.4
100.2
+
164.0
103.6
+
+
166.2
104.9
Instruments
164.8
136.8
+
165.2
134.7
+
165.5
133.9
161.9
132.9
157.4
129.6
155.8
129.5
157.2
130.7
+
+
158.6
132.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-
122.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Miscellaneous manufactures .
(NA)
66.1
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
151.0
123.6
o
-
151.0
121.4
-
150.7
120.6
149.0
113.3
151.5
110.6
+ 151.9
+ 113.0
123.7
(NA)
+
124.3
+
125.9
126.1
(NA)
125.9
-
Paper and products ....
Printing and publishing ,
146.8
142,6
+
+
147.0
143.9
+
+
152.5
145.3
154,
144,
155.0
142.0
-
154.3
141.8
+
151.6
144.0
150.6
145.5
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
193.2
124.3
+.
+
194.1
124.7
+
-
195.6
121.4
196.4
122.6
194.1
123.8
-
193.0
120.0
+
195.6
118.7
(NA)
117.0
Rubber and plastics products..
Leather and products
258.9
62.3
+
256.8
62.9
+
261.1
60.8
262.0
60.9
256.3
59.5
-
25C.2
57.7
-
248.2
55.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
123.1
(NA)
Mining:
Metal mining .
Coal
71.8
144.4
58.1
140.3
53.4
135.8
55.4
127.9
63.1
143.2
+
-
70.4
134.1
+
73.9
129.7
(NA)
138.5
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
129.1
106.6
127.0
103.8
123.3
105.7
121.0
106.3
119.1
108.5
+
120.0
+
111.9
+
+
123.2
114.4
123.8
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) -: rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( ~ ) -- frilling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available,
1
a
The "r" indicates revised; " p "
Data arc seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising,,
78
FEBRUARY 1983
ItCI)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q j
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: BasicData and Directions of Change—Continued
Diffusion index components
1982
July
June
1983
October
September
August
November
December
January
February
2
967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS
Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100)
-
232.2
+
(23)
Percent rising of 13 components
237.0
-
(62)
236.2
+
239.0
-
(62)
(54)
235.5
230.4
(46)
(31)
-
227.4
+
(46)
232.1
+
x
240.3
(62)
(77)
o 0.591
1.303
Dollars
0.465
1.025
-
0.461
1.016
+
0.481 +
1.060
0.482
1.063
+
0.485
1.069
+
0.510
1.124
+
0.552
1.217
+
0.146
0.322
+
0.166
0.366
-
0.164
0.362
-
0.148
0.326
-
0.129
0.284
-
0.114
0.251
+
0.126
0.278
+
59.000
65.036
+
59.200
65.256
+
60.000
66.138
0
60.000
66.138
o
60.000
66.138
o
60.000
66.138
+
61.250
67.516
+ 72.750
5.280
11.640
+
5.714
12.597
+
5.820
12.831
5.715
12.599
5.524
12.178
+
5.528
12.187
5.518
12.165
5.948
13.113
+
0.388
0.855
+
0.399
0.880
+
0.419
0.924
-
0.418
0.922
0.404
0.891
-
0.390
0.860
+
0.402
0.886
0.404
0.891
0.238
0.260
-
0.236
0.258
+
0.241
0.264
+
0.252
0.276
+
0.263
0.288
-
0.256
0.280
-
0.240
0.262
-
0.229
0.250
0.237
0.259
-
0.613
1.351
+
0.659
1.453
-
0.615
1.356
-
0.588
1.296
+
0.595
1.312
-
0.589
1.299
+
0.610
1.345
+
0.622
1.371
+
0.633
1.396
(yard).
(meter)..
-
0.626
0.685
-
0.588
0.643
-
0.546
0.597
+
0.555
0.607
+
0.558
0.610
+
0.567
0.620
+
0.610
0.667
o
0.610
0.667
-
0.608
0.665
...(pound).,
(kilogram)..
o
3.400
7.496
0
3.400
7.496
0
3.400
7.496
o
3.400
7.496
+
3.500
7.716
+
3.600
7.937
-
3.375
7.441
-
3.300
7.275
0
3.300
7.275
Hides
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
-
0.526
1.160
0.544
1.199
-
0.542
1.195
-
0.506
1.116
-
0.489
1.078
-
0.485
1.069
0.474
1.045
+
0.479
1.056
Rosin
(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..
0
47.000
103.616
o
47.000
103.616
o
47.000
103.616
Rubber
(pound)
(kilogram)..
+
0.463
1.021
0.419
0.924
Tallow
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.176
0.388
0.144
0.317
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
-
0.427
0.941
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.142
0.313
(U.S. ton).,
(metric ton)..
-
57.800
63.713
Tin
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
5.284
11.649
Zinc
(pound)
(kilogram)..
+
Burlap
(yard).
(meter)..
-
Cotton
(pound)
(kilogram)..
Copper scrap
Lead scrap..
....
. .
Stee scrap .
Print cloth
Wool tops . . .
0.368
0.811
+
0.541
1.193
+
47.000
103.616
0
47.000
103.616
o
47.000
103.616
0
47.000
103.616
+
0.468
1.032
-
0.464
1.023
-
0.448
0.988
-
0.425
0.937
-
0.168
0.370
-
0.150
0.331
+
0.159
0.351
-
0.152
0.335
0
-
o
47.000
103.616
+
0.421 +
0.928
0.440
0.970
-
0.139
0.306
0.144
0.317
+
-
0.125
0.276
80.192
0
+
+
47.000
103.616
0.484
1.067
0.148
0.326
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for February 1-22.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
FEBRUARY 1983
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
^ H
217, Pgr capita
GNP in 1972
dollars
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
Year
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
and
quarter
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
213. Final sales
in 197? dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
1980
....
2,575.9
2,573.4
2,643.7
2,739.4
73.0
-2.5
70.3
95.7
12,2
^0.4
11.4
15.3
1,494.9
1,457.8
1,463.8
1,479.4
5.6
-37.1
6.0
15.6
1.5
-9.6
1.6
4.3
6,593
6,413
6,421
6,472
1,497.5
1,460.3
1,472.3
1,485.7
First quarter
Second q u a r t e r . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
F o u r t h quarter . . . .
2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2
125.5
36.9
79.1
22.3
19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0
1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1
28.4
-5.6
8.2
-20.3
7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3
6,583
6,544
6,563
6,458
1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3
2,995.5
3,045.2
3,088.2
r3,101.4
-7.7
49.7
43.0
rl3.2
4-1.0
6,8
'5.8
1.7
1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.1
rl,473.9
-19.4
7.7
2.7
r-7.2
-5.1
2.1
0.7
r-1.9
6,360
6,380
6,375
r6,328
1,486.1
1,482.7
1,477.8
rl,492.6
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1981
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
Q |
Q
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued
'. 230. Total in current
1 dollars
C sposable personal income
Year
and
quarter
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
231. Total in 1972
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
233. Durable goods
ir 19/2 dollars
227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
;ti;; dol.)
1980
Firs! quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
1,766.9
1,781.0
1,845.5
1,902.9
1,022.8
1,005.5
1,018.2
1,025.7
4,511
4,423
4,466
4,487
1,618.7
1,622.2
1,682.0
1,745.8
937.0
915.8
928.0
941.0
220.8
199.0
212.7
224.7
145.4
128.9
134.6
139.5
1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4
1,035.0
1,036.6
1,048.8
1,051.9
4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559
1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5
951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4
236.9
230.4
241.2
229,6
145.3
138.6
142.2
134.1
2,117.1
2,151.5
2,198.1
r2,227.1
1,046.9
1,054.8
1,058.3
rl,060.7
4,527
4,552
4,555
r4,554
1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3
r2,031.5
949.1
955.0
956.3
r967.5
237.9
240.7
H40.3
r251.2
137.5
138.3
136.4
rl42.6
1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. , , ,
....
1982
First quarter ,
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.
FEBRUARY 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
| M |
Year
and
quarter
iJ J GROSS PRIVATE
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
239. Services in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
241. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars
243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
650.6
656.7
673.7
700.5
357.8
352.7
353.7
359.0
747.3
766.6
795.6
820.6
433.9
434.3
439.7
442.5
424.0
391.0
384.1
410.3
222.7
201.9
199.2
209.6
424.6
391.4
405.3
428.0
225.3
204.4
207.8
215.9
720.6
729.6
741.3
746.5
361.6
361.7
363.0
363.1
842.4
859.4
886.3
908.3
444.2
444.3
446.2
446.2
455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9
221.6
229.5
233.4
218.9
443.5
450.9
454.2
455.7
219.2
217.4
216.9
214.1
749.1
755.0
768.4
r775.3
362.2
364.5
365.9
r367.5
932.4
952.1
977.6
r l , 005.0
449.5
452.2
454.0
r457.4
414.8
431.5
443.3
r392.4
195.4
202.3
206.3
rl83,8
450.4
447.7
438.6
210.8
206.7
202.9
r202.6
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
r436.6
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Year
and
quarter
• •
GROSS PRIVATE
• S I
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
| M
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-0.7
-0.4
-21.2
-17.7
-2.6
-2.5
-8.5
-6.2
519.2
536.0
538.5
559.8
284.7
286.9
283.4
283.2
189.6
198.8
193.3
207.0
106.4
109.1
105.5
104.8
329.6
337.2
345.2
352.8
178.3
177.8
177.9
178.4
12.2
24.6
31.8
13.2
2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8
578,1
583.2
600.2
626.3
286.8
283.9
286.4
291.3
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
107.9
107.0
110.7
116.0
361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7
179.0
176.9
175.7
175.3
-35.6
-16.2
4.7
r-44.2
-15.4
-4.4
3.4
r-18.7
630.1
630.9
651,7
r676.7
289.2
285.3
291.1
r299.2
249.7
244.3
259.0
r277.9
114.4
110.3
116.2
rl24.1
380.4
386.6
392.7
r398.9
174.9
175.0
174.9
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
rl75.1
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
FEBRUARY 1983
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
^ 9
Year
and
quarter
255. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann . rate
bil. dot.)
(Anr . rate
bil dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
257. Constan
(1972) dollars
253. Current
dollars
256. Constant
(1972) dollars
252. Current
dollars
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
220. National income in current
cJars
mports o goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars
• M
Bil
FOREIGN TRADE,
(Ann rate,
bit dol.)
280. Compensation of
o m n 1' u o ^ c
empkyees
(Ann. rate,
riil. dol.)
1980
First quarter . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
14.0
24.2
39.0
23.5
50.5
53.2
53.1
45.6
335.7
337.3
337.2
346.7
164.
161.
155.
155.
4
2
9
1
321.
313.
298.
323.
7
1
2
2
113.9
108 .0
102 .8
109 .6
2,079.7
2,067.2
2,122.3
2,199.2
1,555, 2
1,571. 7
1,604. 9
1,662 8
31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5
48.2
44.2
39.2
36.5
365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9
159.
159.
157.
156.
3
7
8
9
334.
345.
341.
344.
2
1
3
4
111 .1
115 .5
118 .7
120 .4
2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5
1,718. C
1,750. C
1,789. 1
1,813. 4
31.3
34.9
6.9
r0.8
36.9
35.7
27.5
r23.3
359.9
365.8
349.5
r321.5
151. 7
154. 4
147. 5
328.
330.
342.
r320.
6
9
5
7
114 .7
118 .7
120.0
rll2 .2
2,396,9
2,425,2
2,455.6
(NA)
1,830 8
1,850. 7
1,868.3
rl,875. 9
1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
rl35. 5
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter , . . .
J J J NATIONAL INCOME
282. Proprietors'
and
quarter
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
income with inven
tory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
D
WD ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consump
tion adjustments
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
290. Gross saving
(private and governmerit)
SAVN
IG
295. Business
saving
(Ann. rate,
biL del.)
(Ann. rate,
t)il. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
97. 9
7
9
5
0
30
32
33
34
8
7
8
2
195 .3
172 .2
177 .8
181 .2
175 7
181 .6
190 .4
203 0
410
395
404
414
8
8
4
0
322.3
330.2
335.5
340.3
108. 6
113. 1
105, 3
123. 4
34
34
33
33
4
0
6
6
200 .3
185 .1
193 .1
183 .9
217 .6
231 6
244 0
249 5
461
482
490
476
4
4
0
3
362.7
367.0
379.1
389.1
105.9
122. 0
134. 4
158. 6
33 9
34 2
34 6
33. 9
157 .1
155 .4
166 2
258 7
267 5
268 1
r266 4
428 8
441 5
422 4
(NA)
380.3
384.6
394.2
(NA)
139. 1
144. 3
152. 0
122.
108.
115.
118.
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
123. 8
127. 5
124. 1
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
116. 4
117. 3
118. 4
rl29. 3
(NA)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
82
FEBRUARY 1983
rl35. 5
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q
Year
and
quarter
SAVING—Continued
298. Government
surplus or deficit,
tftfal
loiai
Q
293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
249. Residential
fixed investment
247. Change in
business inventories
251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-10.6
-44.2
-45.9
-32.2
5.5
6.1
6.1
5.5
62.8
63.0
63.6
63.7
12.1
11.7
11.6
11.6
4.4
3.5
3.7
4.0
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.6
0.5
0.9
1.5
0.9
-8.3
-7.6
-24.5
-72.5
5.4
6.1
6.5
7.5
62.8
62.7
62.7
62.7
11.5
11.8
11.8
12.0
4.0
3.8
3.4
3.2
0.4
0.8
1.1
0.4
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.8
-90.7
-87.5
-123.7
(NA)
6.6
6.7
6.9
64.1
64.0
64.3
r65.5
11.9
11.6
11.1
10.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
-1.2
-0.5
0.2
r-1.4
1.0
1.1
0.2
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
r6.1
rO.O
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
^
SHARES 0 " GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued
Percent of national income
Percent of GNP—Continued
Year
and
quarter
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj'
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj»
289. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj»
(Percent)
1980
First quarter
Sucond quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
7.4
7.7
7.3
7.6
12.8
13.1
13.1
12.9
74.8 •
76.0
75.6
75.6
5.9
5.3
5.4
5.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
9.4
8.3
8.4
8.2
8.4
8.8
9.0
9.2
7.6
7.5
7.7
8.3
12.6
12.6
12.4
12.5
74.9
75.3
74.9
75.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
8.7
8.0
8.1
7.6
10.0
10.2
10.4
8.3
8.0
8.4
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.9
76.4
76.3
76.1
(NA)
4.9
4.8
4.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
6.6
6.4
6.8
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
9.5
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
r9.0
10.8
11.0
10.9
(NA)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Sea note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and: 47.
1
IVA) inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
ItUI
FEBRUARY 1983
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
E l PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month
310. Index
(1972-100)
310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index
(1972 = 100)
311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann; rate,
percent)
Consumer prices, all terns
320. Index ©
320c. Change
over 1-month
spans l
(1967-100)
(Percent)
1981
January
February
March
19C>!6
April
May
June
193^2
July
August
September
197.4
October
November
December
201'. 6
10.9
197] i
6.8
(Ann. rate, •
percent)
Revised 2
Revised2
322. Index
(1967-100)
Revised 2
322c, Charge
over 1-month
spans •
322c, Change
over 6-month
spns'
(Percent)
(Ann, rate,
percent)
Revised 2
Revised 2
260.5
263.2
265.1
0.7
0.8
0.8
9.9
9.6
9.1
268.9
270.3
272.0
0.4
0.5
0.6
6.9
4.7
3.8
8.6
266.8
269.0
271.3
0.4
0.9
0.8
10.0
10.1
10.6
272.3
272.4
272.9
0.1
0.0
0.2
4.8
4.9
4.5
9.3
274.4
276.5
279.3
1.1
0.8
1.0
10.5
9.6
8.8
275.3
276.9
278.0
0.9
0.6
0.4
4.8
4.8
4.8
7.4
279.9
280.7
281.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
6.9
5.3
3.1
278.7
278.9
279.4
0.3
0.1
0.2
4.4
4.2
3.5
4.4
282.5
283.4
283.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2.9
4.0
5.5
281.3
282.6
282.8
0.7
0.5
0.1
3.3
4.7
5.6
3.8
284.3
287.1
290.6
0.2
1.0
1.1
6.1
6.6
6.9
283.3
285.4
287.1
0.2
0,7
C.6
4.5
3.1
3.4
5.9
292.2
292.8
293,3
0.6
0.3
0.1
7.2
5.1
2.3
287.6
286.9
287.5
0.2
-0.2
0.2
3.4
2.0
0.7
294,1
293.6
292.4
0.4
0.0
-0.3
1.4
288.1
288.2
288.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.5
293.1
0.2
288.3
0.1
205 .*7
8.8
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans '
10.4
20L 2
9.0
Consumer prices, food
209^4
!
1982
January
February
March
203! 7
April
May
June
206^6
4.3
..
July
August .
September
208! 5
October
November
December
r210.*4
21K8
4.6
213!8
5.0
216.8
r3.7
r4.0
r219.0
1983
January
February
March .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter,
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
84
FEBRUARY 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q
Producer Kices, industrial commodities
Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index (u)
(1967 = 100)
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans' (§)
(Percent)
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' (§)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
335. Index @
(1967 = 100)
335c. Change
over 1-month
spans' ®
(Percent)
Producer prices, crude materials
335c. Change
over 6-month
spans' (u)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
331. Index
(1967 = 100)
Revised 2
1981
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans '
(Percent)
Revised 2
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised2
January
February
March
284.8
287.6
290.3
1.4
1.0
0.9
11.5
11.0
10.2
291.5
295.7
299.6
1.7
1.4
1.3
15.8
15.6
13.3
330.0
332.6
330.6
0.9
0.8
-0.6
5.0
1.9
5.1
April
May
June
293.4
294.1
294.8
1.1
0.2
0.2
8.2
6.2
3.8
303.5
304.7
305.1
1.3
0.4
0.1
10.3
7.9
5.3
333.6
332.4
335.5
0.9
-0.4
0.9
3.7
0.2
-1.9
July
August
September
296.2
296.4
295.7
0.5
0.1
-0.2
1.8
1.0
0.7
306.2
307.2
307.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
3.7
3.0
3.2
336.1
333.0
327.4
0.2
-0.9
-1.7
-6.5
-8.4
-11.8
October
November
December
296.1
295.5
295.3
0.1
-0.2
0.1
1.4
1.5
1.6
309.0
309.3
310.0
0.5
0.1
0.2
3.7
2.9
2.4
322.5
318.1
315.1
-1.5
-1.4
-0.9
-9.2
-8.9
-6.3
January
February
March
298.3
298.6
298.0
0.8
0.1
-0.2
1.3
2.1
2.4
311.8
311.6
311.0
0.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.6
0.2
0.4
320.2
317.9
317.0
1.6
-0.7
-0.3
-1.1
5.3
6.9
April
May
Juno
298.0
298.6
299.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.1
rO.9
309.9
309.6
310.6
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
0.6
1.0
rl.l
320.8
326.4
325.8
1.2
1.7
-0.2
1.2
0.8
-1.0
300.4
300.2
r299.3
0.4
-0.1
r-0.3
1.3
1.2
0.9
312.8
313.2
r312.7
0.7
0.1
r-0.2
2.9
3.6
2.9
322.1
319.1
315.4
-1.1
-0.9
-1.2
-4.0
-5.4
-5.6
299.9
300.4
300.6
r0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.3
314.4
315.1
315.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.8
314.4
317.4
316.5
-0.3
1.0
-0.3
-4.0
300.0
-0.2
314.0
-0.3
315.6
-0.3
1982
July .
August
September
October . . .
November . . . . . . .
December
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
'Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.
FEBRUARY 1983
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
^ M
Producer prices, intermediate materials
Year
332. Index
and
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans l
month
1981
Producer prices, capital equipment
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans!
(1967-100)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised 2
Revised2
Revised2
January
February
March
April
May . . .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
333. Index
333c. Change
333c. Change
over 1-month
over 6-month
spans]
spans'
(1967 = 100)
Revised2
Producer prices, finished consumer piaods
334. Index
334:. Chanp
ovgr I-month
spans'
334;;. Change
ovr 6-month
spans '
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
(Ann, rate,
percent)
Revised 2
Revised2
Revised 2
Revised2
Rovised2
297.0
298.3
301.1
1.2
0.4
0.9
11.4
10.6
9.4
253.5
256.1
258.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
10.1
10.5
11.0
262.2
264.8
267.7
0,9
1.0
1.1
10.7
9.7
9.6
304.2
305.6
307.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
7.3
7.7
5.9
260.2
262.3
264.1
0.8
0.8
0.7
9.8
8.8
8.1
270.3
270.8
272.1
:.o
0,2
0.5
8.2
6.2
4.9
307.6
309.6
309.9
0.2
0.7
0.1
4.1
3.4
2.6
265.6
267.1
268.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
7.9
7.8
7.3
272.8
272.9
274.2
0.3
0.0
0.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
310.3
310.7
311.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.8
0.9
-0.2
270.3
272.3
273.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
7.1
5.6
5.7
275.3
275.9
277.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
3.8
4.0
2.1
311.9
311.0
309.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-1.2
-1.3
-0.8
274.9
274.5
276.0
0.5
-0.1
0.5
4.6
4.1
4.4
278.0
278.3
277.0
0.4
0.1
-0.5
1.5
0.7
2.2
308.4
308.7
309.7
-0.4
0.1
0.3
-1.0
-0.4
0.8
276.5
277.8
279.5
0.2
0.5
0.6
4.1
5.8
4.3
277.3
276.9
280.0
0.1
-0.1
1.1
2.S
3.1
4.4
310.3
310.3
310.8
0.2
0.0
0.2
1.6
2.1
1.4
280.5
282.3
281.9
0.4
0.6
-0.1
4.4
4.0
3.7
281.6
282.6
283.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
5.1
6.8
4.7
310.9
311.9
311.8
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
282.5
283.3
284.6
0.2
0.3
0.5
2.7
284.3
286.1
0.8
286.5
0.5
0.6
0.1
310.8
--0.3
284.3
-0.1
282. S
-1.4
1982
January .
February
March
April
May
.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
. . . . . . . . . . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page I
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
^Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
86
FEBRUARY 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
^ J
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjustec
Year
and
month
Current-dollar earnings
340. Index
(1977 = 100)
340c. Change
over 1 -month
spans2
(Percent)
Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1981
341. Index
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(1977 = 100)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(3)
(3)
n
345. Index
(1977 = 100)
January
February
March
133.7
134.8
135.7
0.8
0.8
0.6
9.1
8.6
8.9
92.8
92.7
92.7
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.6
-0.4
0.6
139.2
April
May
June
136.6
137.6
138.4
0.7
0.8
0.6
8.1
8.7
8.7
93.0
93.0
-1.3
-0.3
-1.3
141.6
92.9
0.3
0.0
-0.1
July
August
September
139.1
140.5
141.4
0.5
1.1
0.6
8.1
8.0
7.6
92.2
92.5
92.1
-0.8
0.3
-0.4
-2.0
-1.4
-1.4
144.7
October
November
December
142.0
143.0
143.5
0.4
0.7
0.3
8.6
6.4
5.7
92.1
92.3
92.3
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
1.6
0.5
2.6
147^4
January
February
March
144.9
145.0
145.4
1.0
0.1
0.3
6.3
6.6
6.6
r93.1
r93.1
r93.5
0.7
rO.O
r0.4
3.7
3.0
1.7
150.1
April
May
June
146.3
147.7
148.1
0.6
0.9
0.3
5.7
6.8
6.5
93.7
r93.6
r92.9
rO.2
-0.1
-0.7
r-0.6
rO.O
r-0.6
152^3
July
August
September
148.9
149.9
150.1
0.5
0.6
0.1
6.2
r4.9
r5.4
r92.8
r93.1
93.2
-0.1
r0.3
rO.l
r-1.1
r-0.2
r3.0
154!7
October
November
December
150.8
rl51.2
rl52.1
0.5
0.2
0.6
93.2
r93.5
r94.3
rO.O
r0.3
r0.9
p4.1
P152.7
pO.4
p94.7
p0.4
345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
11.8
9^4
6.9
8^9
9.2
7.8
7.5
7.6
1982
P 5.1
7.7
6\9
5.9
r6\5
6.5
rl56.9
r5.7
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graptis of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
FEBRUARY 1983
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
and
month
!
(1977 = 100)
346c, Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries (§)
i 348. First year
average changes
Real compensation
346. Index
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output )er hour, all persons , private
business sector
370. Index
(1977 = 100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
Spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann, rate,
percent)
358. Index of
output per hour
ail persons,
nonfarm
business sector
(19/7-100)
1981
0.4
January
February
March
95-7
April
May
June
95*7
July
August
September
95*1
October
November
December
95* i
7.7
7.2
-0.1
-6*6
-2.5
11.6
10.8
10.5
6*7
0.0
100.7
8.1
0*4
-0.3
5.6
ioo! 7
-1*2
11.0
ioi'6
5.8
2*2
100*4
6*9
IOO'O
-6! 7
ioo' 6
-0.4
99! i
6*2
99*2
1.1
-2.9
100.2
1982
4.3
January . . .
February
March
96* i
April
May . . . .
June . . . .
96." 4
July
August
September
96*1
October . .
November
December
i'i
1.3
1.9
1.2
2.6
r2.0
rl.9
-1.0
-1.0
IOO'O
1.4
100.'3
r6.2
r4.7
P2!6
3.6
io6! 3
101*2
r3.0
p3.0
99.4
p4.9
p4.1
plO2*2
rlOO.8
1983
January . ,
February .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these sories are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Changes are centered within the spans:
on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month oi the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed
FEBRUARY 1983
IUII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
D
1 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE ANDMAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Labor force participation rates
448. Number em-
Number unemployed
ployed
Year
441. Total
and
442. Em-
451. Males
452. Females
453. Both
444. Males
445. Females
ployed
20 years
20 years
sexes, 16-19
20 years
20 years
and over
and over
years of age
and over
and over
month
37. Total
446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age
447. Fulltime
workers
part-time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
79.1
79.1
79.2
51.8
51.9
52.0
56.6
56.5
56.3
8,048
8,032
7,967
3,479
3,500
3,439
2,809
2,766
2,765
1,760
1,766
1,763
6,620
6,602
6,541
4,467
4,182
4,222
101,006
100,968
100,393
79.3
79.4
78.9
52.2
52.4
52.2
56.9
56.2
54.4
7,860
8,133
8,047
3,353
3,540
3,492
2,760
2,846
2,830
1,747
1,747
1,725
6,429
6,617
6,581
4,149
4,242
4,088
108,602
108,762
108,375
100,748
100,709
100,104
78.9
78.9
78.7
52.2
52.1
51.7
54.5
55.2
54.9
7,854
8,053
8,271
3,343
3,513
3,559
2,867
2,849
2,953
1,644
1,691
1,759
6,428
6,473
6,762
4,432
4,448
4,612
109,028
109,254
109,066
100,355
100,229
99,677
78.7
78.7
78.8
52.3
52.4
52.2
54.9
55.0
53.9
8,673
9,025
9,389
3,815
4,026
4,367
3,043
3,105
3,174
1,815
1,894
1,848
7,137
7,442
7,990
4,948
5,005
5,325
109,034
109,364
109,478
99,688
99,695
99,597
78.6
78.7
78.6
52.2
52.3
52.5
54.2
54.5
53.8
9,346
9,669
9,881
4,362
4,451
4,607
3,109
3,286
3,402
1,875
1,932
1,872
7,822
8,000
8,346
5,066
5,489
5,611
June
109,740
110,378
110,147
99,484
99,994
99,681
78.7
78.9
78.8
52.5
52.8
52.9
54.2
55.2
53.0
10,256
10,384
10,466
4,770
4,818
5,016
3,528
3,568
3,565
1,958
1,998
1,885
8,575
8,689
8,878
5,750
5,731
5,561
Ju y
August
September
110,416
110,614
110,858
99,588
99,683
99,543
78.8
78.7
79.0
53.0
53.0
52.9
53.2
54.2
54.3
10,828
10,931
11,315
5,150
5,232
5,578
3,672
3,671
3,710
2,006
2,028
2,027
9,036
9,209
9,622
5,577
5,820
6,495
October
110,752
111,042
111,129
99,176
99,136
99,093
78.9
78.9
78.7
52.8
52.9
53.1
54.1
54.4
53.9
11,576
11,906
12,036
5,714
5,865
5,909
3,824
3,989
4,071
2,038
2,052
2,056
9,942
10,127
10,285
6,403
6,411
6,425
110,548
99,103
78.1
52.9
53.5
11,446
5,597
3,963
1,886
9,810
6,845
(Thous.)
108,012
108,175
108,471
99,964
100,143
100,504
June
108,866
109,101
108,440
July
August
September
October
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
November
December
1982
January
February
March
April
May
November
December
1983
January
February
March
April
May
Jure
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .
FEBRUARY 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
DEFENSE INDICATORS
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local governmentsl
Federal Government'
Year
and
month
500. Surplus
or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
Advance measures of defense activity
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
510. Surplus
or de'ficit
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
525. Defense
Department
military prtroe
contract
awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
548. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. del.)
(Mil. dol.)
2
2
C )
1981
C)
January . .
February .
March . . .
-39.7
620.0
659.7
31.3
410.0
378.6
14,808
15,741
15,560
7,155
7,514
7,590
82,087
83,608
84,883
4,341
340
198
April . . . .
May . . . .
June . . . .
- 4 0 .,5
627.0
667.5
32.9
415.2
382.2
15,210
15,699
15,156
8,505
7,967
7,041
84,994
85,165
86,126
4,153
4,842
4,680
July . . . .
August . .
September
-58.0
640.2
698.2
33.5
420.3
386.9
16,836
17,374
16,584
8,845
9,504
9,325
87,968
89,857
91,896
5,010
5,010
5,927
October . .
November
December
-101.7
625.7
727.4
29.1
421.5
392.4
12,892
15,674
19,805
4,466
9,817
9,049
91,354
92,575
93,827
4,109
5,003
5,644
January
February
March
-118.4
609.9
728.3
27.7
424.2
396.5
19,361
20,608
18,869
9,756
13,761
9,870
98,818
102,677
105,418
6,573
7,213
7,065
April , ,
May . .
June . ,
-119.6
617.0
736.6
32.1
434.3
402.2
20,793
17,786
17,503
10,518
9,657
14,296
108,428
108,841
109,654
6,174
4,775
5,437
July
August . . ,
September
-156.0
613.7
769.7
32.3
440.5
408.2
17,669
16,448
18,387
8,610
8,928
10,296
110,885
110,787
111,857
4,684
5,314
4,335
(NA)
<NA)
r816.2
(NA)
(NA)
r414.3
16,476
18,599
p24,396
5,423
10,209
111,866
113,647
119,788
41(821
5,091
r 11,309
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1982
October . .
November
December
1983
January .
February
March . .
April .
May .
June .
July
August . . .
September .
October , , .
November .
December .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
Based on national income and product accounts.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
90
FEBRUARY 1983
p8,807
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
1 1 ) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Output of
defense and
space equipment
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
580. Defense
Department
net outlays
(1967 = 100)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
570. Employment in defense products
industries
(Mil.dol.)
(Thous.)
Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty ©
578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment ®
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services
565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Percent)
1
C)
1981
January .
February
March . .
100.9
100.5
100.7
10,918
11,154
11,406
63,458
65,143
65,468
12,639
12,932
12,619
3,427
3,655
3,873
1,391
1,388
1,390
2,056
2,061
2,062
973
972
974
143.1
5.0
April . . .
May . . .
June . . .
101.5
102.0
101.7
11,627
11,760
12,155
65,852
66,940
67,758
12,833
13,433
13,264
3,768
3,754
3,863
1,393
1,393
1,394
2,060
2,064
2,070
980
990
1,008
150.5
5.2
July
August . .
September
102.6
102.8
103.0
12,163
12,217
12,492
68,799
69,711
71,650
13,889
13,809
14,014
3,968
4,099
3,988
1,394
1,396
1,396
2,082
2,084
2,083
1,023
1,017
984
154.4
5.2
October . .
November
December
104.5
105.3
107.0
12,618
12,962
13,154
71,701
72,560
73,919
14,227
14,548
15,298
4,057
4,145
4,285
1,391
1,384
1,389
2,090
2,097
2*093
998
1,006
1,009
166.9
5.6
January
February . . . .
March
105.
106.
107.0
13,334
13,598
13,857
76,490
79,329
81,905
14,152
14,689
15,075
4,002
4,374
4,490
1,385
1,378
1,376
104
109
107
1,008
1,013
1,018
166.2
5.5
April
May
June
107.
107.
107,
13,946
14,029
14,227
83,808
83,914
84,530
15,670
15,379
15,334
4,271
4,669
4,821
1,373
1,369
1,367
106
104
108
1,022
1,028
1,045
176.2
5.8
July
August
September . . .
109,
109,
109.5
14,205
14,459
14,869
84,413
85,081
84,557
16,312
15,050
16,881
4,800
4,647
4,859
1,368
1,358
1,360
110
109
2,109
1,051
1,043
990
182.7
5.9
October
November . . .
December , . .
rill.9
113.6
rll4.6
15,204
15,351
15,830
84,452
84,593
r90,800
15,972
17,087
rl6,779
4,925
4,951
r5,100
1,356
rl,355
pi,350
2,108
2,114
2,113
1,016
1,024
1,027
rl89.4
6.1
P115.5
(NA)
p94,602
pl7,068
p5,005
(NA)
p2,118
1,024
1982
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . , .
See note on page 80.
Gniphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
l
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/ page
FEBRUARY 1983
in.
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Q |
Year
and
month
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
604, Exports of agricultural products
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1
612. General imports,
total
(Mil.dol.)
(M
C)
1981
MERCHANDISE TRADE
614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products
616. Imports of
automobiles and parts
(Mil.dol.)
(MiUol.)
C)
CM
January
February
March
18,902
19,788
21,278
4,295
3,977
4,201
4,058
4,155
4,352
22,616
21,916
21,029
7,359
8,018
5,992
2,264
1,742
2,125
April
May
June
19,786
18,899
19,750
3,604
3,708
3,256
4,311
4,160
4,388
22,249
21,232
22,005
6,919
6,329
6,531
2,042
2,299
2,257
July
August
September
19,289
19,031
19,551
3,089
3,202
3,563
4,567
6,207
4,559
20,114
23,242
21,274
5,400
6,335
5,709
2,108
2,635
1,943
October
November
December
19,163
19,153
18,885
3,735
3,442
3,220
4,338
4,366
4,005
23,077
22,508
19,746
6,123
6,483
4,636
2,464
2,239
2,164
January
February
March
18,737
18,704
18,602
3,258
3,590
3,225
4,346
4,054
3,997
22,829
19,090
20,349
6s810
4,396
4,290
2,389
2,135
2,596
April
May
June
17,843
18,218
18;, 822
3,400
3,527
3,332
3,932
3,957
4,211
17,387
20,558
21,310
r3,894
r4,180
r4,855
r2,785
r2,626
July
August
September
18,026
17,498
17,387
2,789
2,763
2,648
4,305
3,856
4,197
19,559
23,494
20,644
r5,624
r5,731
r4,903
r2,455
r2,795
r2,370
October
November
December
16,698
15,693
16,335
2,681
2,783
2,637
3,829
3,686
3,719
21,096
18,936
18,865
r5,433
r4,757
4,694
r2,444
r2,130
2,189
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1982
r2,389
1983
January . , .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page
92
in.
FEBRUARY 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Q |
GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Goods and services
Year
and
month
668. Exports
667, Balance
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Income on investments
Merchandise, adjusted '
669. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
622. Balance
(Mil.dol.)
618. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
620. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
651. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)
652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States
(Mil.dol.)
1981
January
February
March
4,667
93,280
88,ei3
-4,3i2
60,683
64,995
20,528
12,405
April
May
June
2,909
94,389
91,480
-6,547
60,284
66,831
21,642
13,441
July
August
September
2,559
92,965
90,406
-7,845
57,694
65,539
22,048
13,865
October
November
December
943
92,259
91,3i6
-9,185
57,593
66,778
21,727
13,198
January
February
March
3,123
90,193
87,070
r-5,937
r55,607
r61,544
20,890
14,029
April
May
June
3,971
91,266
87,295
r-5,762
r55,002
r60,764
22,562
14,874
July
August
September
p-2,574
p88,058
p90,632
r-12,508
r52,318
r64,826
p21,880
pl4,462
October
November
December
(NA)
1982
...
(NA)
(NA)
p-11,906
p48,228
p60,134
(NA)
(NA)
1983
January
February
ft/lurch . . . .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
FEBRUARY 1983
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q j
47. United States,
index of industrial production
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
721. OECD '
European countries, index of
industrial
production
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
725, Wesit
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
151.4
151.8
152.1
154
159
158
237.2
237.0
237.7
156
164
160
156
June
1151.9
152.7
152.9
156
155
238.0
235.2
240,7
July . . . ;
August
September
153.9
153.6
151.6
158
152
158
October
149.1
146.3
143.4
Year
and
726. France,
index of industrial production
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
Ul, Italy, index
of industrial
production
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
month
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
November
December
156
159
157
116
117
117
158.6
170.3
169.3
163.8
166.0
168.0
160
156
117
160
156
159
160
116
118
168.4
158.0
159.8
169.7
170.2
172.7
243,1
240.7
245.6
157
157
160
157
157
160
118
118
165.2
137.2
164.1
170.4
164.5
163.8
158
158
156
248.3
248,4
247.1
160
157
156
160
160
163
121
120
118
rl58.4
rl68.1
rl60.4
161.3
158.4
157.2
140.7
142.9
141.7
156
159
158
245.8
244.0
247a
157
161
161
156
156
157
118
118
120
rl61.9
rl69.8
rl65.9
rl56.2
rl54.7
rl52.5
140.2
139.2
138.7
rl56
156
242.6
238.3
160
157
156
159
120
120
13"+
OAA 1
tHt . 1
1 c i4
1 3*+
1 ^Q
1 3-7
i ift
rl64.8
rl62.7
rl54.9
rl50.5
rl51.8
rl48.0
138.8
138.4
137.3
151
rl51
rl52
245.0
244.3
247.1
149
154
152
152
152
154
rll8
rll8
120
rl53.fi
rl46.4
rl53.9
rH3.3
rl49.5
rl44.5
rl35.7
134.8
rl.35.0
pl52
(NA)
r239.7
P246.8
(NA)
150
pl50
(NA)
156
pl56
(NA)
120
pi 17
(NA)
rl49.7
pl55.5
(NA)
rl40.0
rl40.9
pl39.7
rll8
1982
January
. ,
February
.,
March
April
May
June
July .
August .
September
..
October
November
December
1983
(NA)
P136.2
January
February
March
April
May
June . ,
, .
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
94
FEBRUARY 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q
United States
Year
and
month
320. Index (g)
(1967-100)
Japan
320c, Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised 2
1981
CONSUMER PRICES
738, Index ®
West Germany
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
735. Index <u)
France
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
736. Index ©
United kingdom
736c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
732. Index ©
732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
C2)
C2)
C)
(2)
(2)
C2)
(2)
C2)
January
February
March
260.5
263.2
265.1
9.9
9.6
9.1
291.1
290.8
292.2
4.4
3.1
3.8
180.9
182.3
183.5
6.6
6.2
5.7
312.7
315.6
318.8
13.2
13.0
13.0
445.5
449.5
456.2
13.0
12.1
11.6
April
May
June
266.8
269.0
271.3
10.0
10.1
10.6
294.5
297.0
297.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
184.7
185.4
186.3
6.3
6.7
6.9
323.1
326.0
329.2
13.8
14.3
15.3
469.4
472.4
475.2
12.5
12.1
10.7
July
August
September
274.4
276.5
279.3
10.5
9.6
8.8
296.4
294.7
299.5
3.9
4.1
4.2
187.1
187.7
188.6
6.9
7.1
6.9
334.9
339.0
342.9
14.9
15.7
15.1
477.3
480.8
483.5
10.4
11.8
12.5
October
November
December
279.9
280.7
281.5
6.9
5.3
3.1
300.7
299.8
299.8
4.0
3.3
2.4
189.2
190.1
190.7
6.3
4.8
3.5
347.1
350.3
352.4
13.9
13.6
13.0
487.9
493.0
496.1
11.5
9.9
10.0
January
February
March
282.5
283.4
283.1
2.9
4.0
5.5
300.7
299.8
300.4
1.9
0.5
0.1
192.3
192.8
193.1
3.0
3.5
4.9
356.0
359.6
363.8
13.0
12.0
12.0
499.0
499.1
503.5
8.4
7.3
6.0
April
May
June
284.3
287.1
290.6
6.1
6.6
6.9
302.9
303.8
303.8
-0.5
2.9
4.0
194.0
195.2
197.1
4.9
5.4
6.3
368.2
371.1
373.7
9.9
8.2
7.2
513.6
517.3
518.9
6.0
6.0
4.7
July
August
September
292.2
292.8
293.3
7.2
5.1
2.3
301.5
303.8
309.1
4.4
4.1
3.7
197.6
197.3
197.9
6.8
5.9
4.0
374.7
375.9
377.5
5.8
6.9
7.3
518.9
519.0
518.7
5.3
5.3
4.2
October
November .
December
294.1
293.6
292.4
1.4
310.0
306.6
306.0
•(NA)
198.5
198.9
199.4
(NA)
379.5
383.2
386.4
(NA)
521.3
523.9
522.9
4,0
1982
1983
January
February
March
293.1
<NA)
(NA)
(NA)
523.5
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
ItCil
FEBRUARY 1983
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Year
and
month
1
S
CONSUMER PRICES-Continued
Italy
Canada
\ 737. Index © 737c. Change
733. Index ©
over 6-month
spans l
(1967 = 100)
n
1981
(Ann. rate,
percent)
C)
(1967 = 100)
2
. Q j STOCK PRICES
733c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices (u)
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices <g)
746. France,
index of
stock
prices ®
742. United
Kingdom
index of
stock
prices @
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices @
index of
stock
prices ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 -100}
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
C)
(2):
13.1
12.2
13.2
144.6
139.7
144.9
457.9
458.2
467.3
115.3
114.0
116.3
191.1
201.1
110.0
209.4
2159.0
269.0
273.2
122.1
125.9
223.7
218.6
233.9
122.7
122.1
126.1
197.7
162.5
152.3
293. Z
295.6
289.0
132.4
135.9
123.5
232.3
245.7
242.9
534.4
540.7
511.3
127.5
122.5
122.5
168.9
177.4
176.5
284.8
398.6
278.9
99.1
112.0
99.1
232.3
231.6
192.3
130.3
133.7
134.7
493.8
505.6
512.7
118.8
118.0
117.7
163.9
169.2
170.7
259.5
278.0
284.2
91.2
93.8
96.9
190.4
208.9
201.2
10.5
11.4
11.4
127.6
124.6
120.6
518.9
516.9
486.2
116.8
118.4
120.1
185.7
193.1
145.9
291.1
300.1
298.8
95.0
98.8
104.2
185.3
176.7
173.1
297.5
301.5
304.5
11.1
10.2
9.5
126.5
126.6
119.7
484.5
503.4
489.6
120.6
117.6
114.2
184.8
183.3
166.3
303.2
315.4
314.6
96.7
91.0
83.1
171.2
168.4
153.8
20.6
19.8
19.1
306.1
307.6
309.2
9.4
8.2
7.2
119.0
119.3
133.2
480.8
474.3
481.6
113.5
112.3
115.6
161.1
169.3
168.4
313,2
320.1
343.5
78.4
86.1
85.8
156.8
177.4
177.3
(NA)
311.2
313.3
313.4
5.7
144.3
150.2
151.6
490.4
512.7
528.2
118.2
118.8
124.3
170.7
174.5
rpl76.0
360.7
372.0
p364.8
36.4
87.6
91.2
192.6
189.7
P193.1
156.9
pl58.4
533.3
P534.7
126.0
P129.8
rpl81.2
P187.5
rp371.5
P381.5
rplO8.8
P124.7
rp209.4
p215.3
440.7
449.1
455.4
20.1
20.1
19.3
259.1
261.7
265.2
June
461.3
468.7
473.9
18.9
18.2
16.8
267.2
269.6
273.8
12.3
12.3
11.9
146.2
143.3
143.9
494.6
502.8
515.2
July
August
September
477.7
481.0
487.7
17.7
16.8
17.0
276.2
278.2
280.2
12,2
12.2
11.0
140.5
141.0
128.7
October
November
December
497.5
506.0
511.1
15.8
15.3
15.6
283.0
285.4
286.7
10.6
10.9
11.2
517.7
524.4
529.1
13.8
13.6
13.1
288.7
292.1
295.8
533.9
539.8
545.2
15.9
19.0
18,7
July
August
September
553.4
563.4
571.3
October
November
December
582.7
590.3
594.4
January
February
March
..
April
May
743. Canada,
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks <g)
1982
January
February
March
.
April
May
June
..
...
..
...
1983
January
February
March
April
May
(NA)
.
312.5
,
June
July
August
September
October . . . ,
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
96
FEBRUARY 1983
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1982
Series
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
1
13. New business incorporations
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
111.6
85.9
80.1
88.3
97.1
124 1
144.9
105 9
101.7
97.0
99.8
98.9
91.5
103,9
96.2
90.6
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales,
manufacturing2
1 3
1983
98.7
Apr.
May
91.4
94 2
84.5
92.1
112.0
100 8
101.1
106.6
Mar.
97.4
98.3
June
105.5
-364
785
860
880
371
825
-1696
-1977
-1102
-169
-67
1253
99.6
99.2
99.6
100.5
100.6
101.5
100.4
99.9
99.3
99.9
100.0
99.4
517. Defense Department gross obligations
incurred1
95.2
83.2
126.1
130.0
100.1
95.6
108.7
90.8
103.9
104.4
87.8
85.9
525. Defense Department prime contract awards
84.6
79.7
190.7
104.2
101.3
91.2
89.9
76.0
109.7
96.2
95.1
88.2
543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligationsoutstanding
. . .
, . .
96.9
94.7
98.1
101.5
101.5
100.2
102.8
102.0
101.8
102.5
101.3
98.5
570. Employment in defense products industries .
99.8
99.4
99.8
99.9
100.2
100.5
100.4
100.2
100.3
100.0
99.8
99.9
100.1
99.7
97.0
99.5
96.3
105.0
93.2
96.6
109.8
97.7
100.2
104.2
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products .
87.7
90.2
90.2
107.7
109.6
109.5
99.6
101.1
113.4
103.1
98.7
93.7
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
96.1
97.2
95.1
102.8
96.5
98.9
91.4
93.6
111.8
100.9
103.0
109.1
97.0
103.9
96.7
101,0
92.9
103.2
106.6
105.0
100.0
101,1
88.1
103.1
92.5
90.6
92.9
99.7
102.3
98.8
106.6
86.3
111.7
100.6
108.4
109.4
33. Net change in mortgage debt
. . . . . . .
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars'*
580. Defense Department net outlays1
....
614. Imports of petroleum and products1. .
616. Imports of automobiles and parts1
t
..
NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF TEE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
"These factors apply to only the loans portion of this series.
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
Jan,
Mar.
Feb.
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951. • .
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959..,
1960...
1961. . .
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965.. .
1966...
1967, . .
1968,..
1969...
1970...
1971. . .
1972...
1973...
1974,. .
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980...
1981. . .
1982...
112.6
91.6
87.3
89.3
91.4
95.1
88.6
97.7
97.7
93.5
88.9
98.3
99.6
98.9
93.2
94.0
96.8
100.4
102.0
97.0
104,1
112.9
112.1
104.5
113.5
116.7
109.5
99.7
114.2
120.3
125.2
128.3
128.1
121.6
107.9
89.0
89.9
8 9.7
92.2
94.2
88.0
98.5
98.5
93.5
88.5
98.6
98.3
90.8
94.0
94.8
97.8
100.8
102.8
96.7
104.8
113.7
111.5
103.7
113.2
117.1
110.0
99.4
114.1
120.7
127.3
128.1
127.9
120.7
62.
105.1
86.9
90.8
90.1
93.1
93.7
87.8
98.6
97.5
93.8
88.3
100.1
97.3
91.4
94.5
95.2
97.4
100.0
102.9
97.4
105.2
112.8
109.0
106.0
114.2
117.7
109.9
100.2
114.3
122.1
128.5
129.1
124.6
120.9
May
Apr.
12,
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
H Q
INDEX OF NET BUSINESS FORMATION1
(1967=100)
105.4
06.0
93.1
88.3
993.1
1. 3
89.1
98.2
98.2
93.6
88.2
99.8
97.4
92.4
94.0
94.1
98.2
99.2
100.6
96.9
103.2
113.7
108.2
106.3
115.4
116.0
112.7
101.3
114.5
120.2
128. 5
127.9
121.9
121.9
104.8
84.6
91.3
93 .0
92.3
89,7
98.7
98.1
92.6
90.9
100,0
96.1
92.3
93.7
94.5
99.7
99.4
99.9
98.2
102.1
113.6
106.1
107.7
114.r>
115.9
112.6
103.3
113.3
120.8
127.7
129.1
121.1
119.1
103.8
84.2
92.9
88 .7
93.6
91.6
90.1
99.4
96.9
93.6
91.8
98.4
96.1
92.8
93.1
95.2
97.8
100.5
99.8
100.0
103.7
113.3
104.9
109.9
114.6
115.5
113.4
108.7
116.1
123.5
129.3
126.7
118.9
117.3
101.0
82.8
92.1
88.9
92.3
91.5
90.8
98.9
96.3
93.2
92.3
98.4
96.0
93.2
93.3
95.2
97.8
100.5
99.3
100.4
106.2
113.2
104.0
110.4
115.8
115.4
114.5
112.3
115.7
122.8
129.3
128.4
119.1
118.2
98.6
83.9
91.1
88.9
94.6
91.8
91.2
98,5
95.4
92.6
94-1
98.5
94.6
91.7
93.6
96.0
98.2
100.1
98.2
102.3
107.7
112.6
103.4
109.9
116.1
114.7
112.7
111,4
113.9
125.3
127.3
127.9
120.6
118.7
AVERAGE FOR
97.3
85.5
89.3
89.6
95.0
89.4
92.3
98.6
95.2
91.7
95.3
97.8
94.1
91.8
94.4
95.8
100.2
99.9
97.4
101.7
109.0
111 .5
103.9
109.0
117.7
112.4
108.5
111.2
115.5
124.0
127.6
130.0
121.1
117.6
INDEX OS? LABOR COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT, TOTAL MANUFACTURING
97.5
85.9
89.6
93.9
87.2
90.1
95.3
89.4
89.4
108.5
89.2
89,3
104.7
84.9
92.4
99.0
84.1
90.8
94 Is
89.9
94.2
97.8
96,4
91,3
95.2
97.4
93.9
92.8
94.1
96.1
100.8
99. S
913.2
101.6
112.8
113.5
104.3
110.6
118.9
112.2
103.0
110,5
117.2
126.4
130.3
127.0
121,6
114.8
94.0
88.6
95.4
98.2
94.6
90.4
96.1
98.7
91.7
93.8
93.3
95.4
98.9
100.6
95.4
103.8
110.5
111.5
105.3
111.4
118.5
114.1
101.7
111.1
119.7
126.2
129.9
127.9
121.1
117.4
94.2
89.5
95.1
98.2
94.2
89.2
96.6
98.8
90.9
93.8
93.1
96.0
100.2
100.9
96.1
103.8
112.7
112.8
104.4
112.3
118.1
110.7
101.8
114.3
119.0
126.3
127.5
129.7
122.7
115.2
92.2
94.3
88.1
98.3
97.9
93.6
88.6
99.0
98.4
90.4
93.9
94.7
97.3
100.4
102.6
97.0
104.7
113.1
110.9
104.7
113.6
117.2
109,8
99.8
114.2
121.0
127.0
128.5
126.9
121.0
92.6
92.3
89.6
93.8
97.7
93.3
90.3
99.4
96.5
92.5
93.6
94.6
93.6
99.7
100.1
98.4
103.0
113.5
106.4
108.0
114.9
US.8
112.9
104.4
114.6
121.5
128.5
127.9
120.6
119.4
94.0
90.3
91.4
9B.7
95.6
92. 5
93.9
98.2
94,9
78,6
81,7
79.4
81.7
89.2
90.5
94.5
91.4
92.1
96.4
101.2
98.5
97.5
103.1
99.7
99.3
97.4
96.3
95.8
99.3
100.9
104.7
111.8
113.1
112.5
115.0
122.4
144.1
14 3.9
149,3
161.6
170.4
183.7
202.6
78.4
82.0
79.2
83.0
89.2
90.6
94.S
91.7
92.5
95.9
101.8
97.8
98.7
103.4
99.1
98.3
97.8
96.3
96 .8
99.5
101.5
104.6
111.5
113.3
113.7
115.7
123.2
145,6
143.0
151.2
163.5
171.5
186.2
203.6
79.3
81.1
78. S
83.9
89.7
91.2
94.7
90.8
93.2
96.2
102.€
97.3
99.9'
102.7
99.3
98.5
9 8 . 5>
95.3
96.4
100.3
101.8
105.2
112.4
113.6
114.1
115.7
123.S
147.7
143.4
150.7
163.5
171.S
188.2
204.4
78.8
81.2
77.8
85.3
89.8
91.3
94.5
90 ,1
93.1
97.1
102.8
97.1
100.0
101B4
100.3
97.2
97,6
95.2
97.. 0
99.5
102.2
106.0
112,2
113-3
113.3
116,8
124.4
145.9
1-14.0
151,8
162.5
175.0
191,7
206,1
78.3
81.3
78.3
85.6
90.6
91.0
94.1
90.1
93.7
97.2
101.7
97.0
100.8
101.1
100.4
97.1
97.6
95.0
97.0
100.0
102.1
106.9
112.1
113.4
113.7
116.3
125.2
145.7
144.3
152.9
163.4
173.5
196.6
207.4
78.5
81.1
77.2
86.7
91.1
91.6
93.4
90.2
94.3
96.9
100.0
97.6
101.4
100.5
100.8
97.5
97.9
95.3
97.4
100.3
102.2
106.8
112.6
113.1
113.7
116.9
125.7
143.3
144.2
154.0
163.7
174.4
201.0
208.9
80.8
79.6
79.8
813.3
90.2
92.1
93.0
91,0
96.1
93.2
93.8
101.6
101.4
93,8
99,9
97.5
98,3
9 5,3
97,9
99,7
104.5
103.2
112,9
112.0
113.1
113.9
131.6
142,4
147.1
157,1
165.9
179.5
201.1
216.6
82.3
78.5
81.3
88.8
89.7
93.0
93.7
92.3
96.4
100.2
98.8
101.8
102.4
98.8
99.6
97.8
97.0
96.0
81.7
79.3
81.6
89.5
90.7
94.4
92.9
91.6
96.5
100.7
99.2
98.5
102.4
98.1
99.6
98.6
96.9
95.6
78.8
81.6
79.0
82.8
89.4
90.8
94.6
91.3
92.6
96.2
101.9
98.0
98.7
103.1
99.4
98.9
97.9
96.1
78.5
81.4
77.8
85.9
90.5
91.3
94 .0
90.1
93.7
97.1
101.5
97.2
100.7
101.0
100.5
97.3
97.7
95.2
80.7
80.0
77,1
88,4
89.7
91.1
93,1
90.9
96.3
97.2
100.0
100.3
100,9
99..3
99,9
98.0
98,1
94.,7
99.7
104,0
108.6
112.8
111.9
113.5
119.9
135.5
141 .9
14B.1
158.1
167.2
180.1
200.9
219.9
100.0
104.9
109.8
112.8
113.3
113.5
120.8
140.8
143.1
148.5
159.4
168.1
181.9
201.1
222.5
99.7
101.4
104.8
111.9
113.3
113.4
115.5
123.0
145.8
143.4
150.4
162.9
171.1
186.0
203.5
99,9
102.2
106.6
112.3
113.3
113.6
116.7
125.1
145.0
144.2
152.9
163.2
174.3
196.4
207.5
100,8
103.1
107,5
112.9
113.,1
113.2
117.5
127 ,,6
141.0
145., 5
15 5,5
164.7
177.9
203..0
210.,5
1954..,
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963.. .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970..,
1971..,
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
101.7
102.7
96.9
96.9
102.6
101.4
103.4
101.2
102.8
96.4
98.2
102.3
101.2
103.3
80.9
79.8
76.6
88.7
89.9
90.9
93.5
91.0
95.7
97.6
99.8
100.6
100.6
99.3
100.0
97.8
98.0
94.8
98 .3
101,0
102.9
107.7
112.9
114.2
113.1
117.6
127.6
141.0
145.3
155.5
164.4
178.3
203.7
209.9
81.4
79.4
77.8
88.7
90.1
91.1
92.6
91 .2
95.4
97.1
100.0
101.1
101.1
98.8
99.7
97.9
98.5
94 .9
98 . 2
100.4
103.6
108.0
112.9
112.4
113.2
117 .8
128.4
140.8
146.7
156.5
165.4
178.9
202,2
212.6
97.3
99.6
103.0
99.2
97.2
102.5
99.8
100.4
100.1
100.0
99.1
100.4
98.8
99.6
105.4
103.2
98.8
96.5
97.7
107.8
101.6
99.8
101.1
99.1
98.8
100.6
97.5
98.9
103.5
98.4
98.4
102.8
99.3
100.0
100.6
100.0
100.0
100.4
99.0
99.4
104.8
103.1
99.5
96.7
97.8
108.4
100.5
100.6
101.7
99.1
99.5
100.4
102.3
97,9
95,3
102.3
101.7
101.2
100.7
103.9
96.3
96.9
102.6
100.9
102.1
101.3
102.9
97.0
97.0
103.2
101.8
103.5
100.2
101.7
102.3
96.2
98.0
102.5
101.4
103.4
100.6
101,3
94.0
100.8
103.1
101.4
102,4
98U9
92O<3
102., 9
1 0 1 , ,6
100., S
102.5
103.3
97.9
93.1
103.0
101 .8
100.3
100.4
98. 2
99.9
103.1
97,4
100.3
100.7
100.8
98.6
100.8
98.7
99.7
100.2
98.8
101. 5
104.5
102. 3
98.3
96.1
97,8
106.9
100.0
100.2
99.8
98.3
103.0
100.1
98.6
99.5
101.3
97.9
100.8
100.2
101.2
99.1
101.3
99.0
99.9
100.2
98.7
101.4
104.7
101.7
98.0
96.2
97.6
104 .6
99.4
100.4
99.4
98.1
104.7
100.1
102.0
99.3
101.4
99.4
100.3
99,5
100.6
100.0
101.3
98.1
99.6
100.6
99.0
101.4
104.6
101.1
97.2
96.1
97.9
102.7
99.2
100.2
99.1
98.6
105.1
99.4
99,7
99,9
100.9
100.7
100.0
99.1
100.6
99.7
101.5
98.4
100.5
100.4
98.9
102.1
104.4
102.0
96.7
96.1
98.0
102.0
99.4
100.2
98.7
99.0
104.7
99.1
99.2
99.3
101 .0
101.1
100.4
98,7
100.4
100.0
102.1
98.5
100.1
99.5
99.3
102.3
104.1
100.1
96.4
95.9
98.0
101,4
99.9
100.2
98.7
98.7
103.2
99.7
99.8
99.9
102.2
99.6
101.7
101.7
98.9
100.4
100.2
100.7
99.5
100.7
98.2
99.2
102.7
103.5
99.0
95.9
96,7
102.3
101.2
99.9
100.1
98.5
98.0
101.2
101.7
99.9
102.6
99.9
98.3
101,7
98.2
100.6
101.1
100.6
99,0
100.0
98.2
99.8
103.8
103.2
99.9
95.6
96.9
105.8
101.5
99.7
100.3
98.4
98.4
100.6
102.2
97.6
99.2
103.6
98.6
98.4
102.5
99.6
100.0
100.7
99.9
99.5
100.6
98.9
99.7
105.2
103.1
99.2
96.5
97.7
108.5
100.8
100.1
101.3
98.9
99.4
100.4
90.2
99,8
102.9
97.6
100. 2
100.6
100.9
98.7
100.9
98.9
99.8
100.1
98.9
101.2
104.7
102.2
98.2
96.4
97.7
106.4
99.9
100. 2
99.7
98.8
102.9
100.1
98.1
99.1
104.2
98.3
99.5
102. 2
99.5
99. e
101.5
99.5
99.4
101.1
99.0
100.0
105.4
103.1
99.4
96.3
97.5
109.4
100.3
99.8
101.1
98. 5
99.9
100.1
97*8
99.9
104.3
97.5
99.5
100,9
100.6
98.6
100,7
98.9
99,9
100,0
99.2
100.7
104.9
102,5
98.4
96.9
97.7
107.6
100.2
100,0
99.9
99.8
101.1
100.2
ion.3
99.7
101.6
100.7
98.8
100.6
99.7
101.9
93.9
99.6
98.5
99.9
102.4
103.9
9 9.4
96.0
96,4
99.8
102.0
99.7
103.0
98.4
93.3
102.0
100.8
This series contains revisions beginning with 1948. This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of
the user. 3 Th1s series is Introduced 1n thJs Issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page 111.
10 2.,7
102.9
98.6
91.9
103.3
101.8
100.3
101.5
101.4
95.4
98.9
102. 6
101.7
103.4
?f)RIOD
9IS.6
87.5
8!). 7
90.6
94.2
39.3
94.9
9{ 0 . 1
)!».l
90.3
96.0
98.3
92.2
93.5
93.5
9!».B
10O.O
100.3
96.6
103.1
112.0
112.6
104.7
111.4
I IB. 5
112.3
102.2
112.0
118.6
126.3
129.2
128.2
121.8
115.8
lUl.'i
l
H).n
<)1.' (
•u.ei
*>« .<')
*» 6.fi
(
» 2 . <;
*»8.'»
(
*)!i. i
92 .'.
•>3.'»
*)!».:?
100.2
«>9.'l
100.;$
lOfi.H
H2.«)
106.4
108 .'}
f
n i.n
114.')
1 0 9 . H!
107.1}
US.ii
128.2
12H.'J
122.4
llB.fi
'ElUOtO
81.6
79.1
80.9
88.9
91). 2
93.2
9J.2
91.6
96.3
99.7
93.9
100*6
102.1
9a.6
99,7
98.0
97.4
95.6
98.6
9?.8
104.5
103.9
112.8
112.4
113.4
119.9
136.0
142.5
147.9
158.2
167.1
180.5
201.0
219.7
1H.f)
ao.'j
7H.'>
8 6 . r>
4 tJ . 1}
') ; . ts
9 3.7
i
):, 0
94.7
'•i'l . :i
1OO.»5
'4f). t
lOO.f)
lOO.'S
99.9
98.S)
'¥1 ,:*
95.4
imun
102.13
itn.o
112,'i
lll.i)
i n . •:
117.5
127. 3
143.6
14'i.a
1S4. *
164..;
17 6.:"
210.3
AVERAGE FOR h I!HI IK)
101.8
100.2
92.4
102.5
101.2
100.9
101.2
100.4
101.8
94.6
100.5
103. 2
101.0
Annual
3
100.4
100.7
93.1
101.5
103.6
101.5
101.6
101,2
101.3
94.3
100.4
102.5
101.6
103.1
102.1
93.8
95.7
98.7
100.2
98.3
101.5
107.6
112.4
103.8
109.3
US.5
114.2
111.9
111.6
115.0
124,0
128.1
128. 8
120.3
118,2
AVERAGE FUR
79.8
80.9
76.8
87.8
89.2
91.3
93.1
90.6
97.7
96.9
100.2
99.2
100.9
99.8
100.1
98.3
97.8
94.4
97.3
100.9
102.8
106.9
112.8
112.8
113.2
117.2
126.8
141.3
144.5
154.6
164,2
176.4
203.1
208.9
62. LftBOR COST PER UNIT Of OUTPUT, MANUFACTURING—ACTUAL DATA AS A PERCENT OF TREND
(PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
92.2
IV Q
2
(1967=100)
1948...
1949.. .
1950...
1951. . .
1952. . .
1953..,
1954.,.
1955.. .
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960.. .
1961...
1962.. .
1963. . .
1964..,
1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968.. .
1969.. .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
III Q
1-U.
101.0
103.1
97.1
96.4
102.7
101.4
102.3
103.7
100I3
99.5
101.1
100.4
100.2
99,, 1
100 .,5
99 ,,9
101.6
98., 3
100.1
100.1
99 ,,1
101.9
104.4
101 ,,1
9 6,,8
96 ,,0
98.0
102uQ
99,5
100.2
98.,8
98,8
104,3
99,, 4
101.7
99.7
100.5
101.4
98.6
100.6
LOO.4
101.1
99.1
100.1
98.3
99.6
103.0
103.5
99,4
93.8
96.7
102.6
101.6
99.8
100.1
93.4
98.3
101.3
101.6
MO. 1
Ml.-
+•). •
M . •
Ml.l
102.:
101.;
in.
-»•»!•
4-).
-•
1.hi. I
1 -) t ) . :•
.100..;
->*». ;
10I . 1
•»').
• W . "<
•
V).
•)'}.
1
101.1
J>)4.
111.1
•>7.
•H.
M4.
1 JO.
1.10. <
•H.
18.
T)2.
1J0.1
(FEBRUARY 1933)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
-0.98
0.85
0.18
0.96
-0.70
-0.92
0.71
-0.38
-0.79
0.10
1.60
0.09
-0.92
-0.31
-0.10
0.41
0.90
0.29
-0.10
-0.39
2.07
0.00
0.17
-0.16
2.39
2.82
-4.05
-0.33
-0.05
-1.24
2.00
1.36
0.87
-1.08
-0.99
0.48
0.92
-0.09
-0.60
-0.41
0.30
0.29
-0.10
-0.42
0.00
-0.38
-0.73
-1.02
-0.31
0.31
0.39
0.59
-0.69
0.88
1.41
1.44
-1.92
0.48
1.62
3.64
-1.97
0.67
1.21
-0.78
2.87
-1.01
1.98
-2.18
-i.il
0.96
0.82
-0.66
-0.40
-0.21
0.10
0.67
0.10
0.31
-0.59
0.00
0.21
0.52
0.21
0.00
0.20
0.00
-1.19
1.07
2.95
-0.50
-0.98
1.27
1.18
3.05
-5.33
2.27
1.15
2.69
-0.4 2
-2.27
0.26
-0.72
0.19
-0.98
1.52
1.14
-0.77
0 .10
-0.20
0.13
0.32
-0.77
-0.03
1.01
-0.80
0.04
-0.17
0.00
0.24
-0.49
0.97
-1.01
0.23
2.07
-1.30
1.36
0.81
3.11
0.42
-1.55
2.18
0.69
1.56
2.09
1.01
-1.22
1.17
-1.13
2.36
-0.79
-0.39
-0.03
-0.10
0.60
-0.48
-0.44
0.18
0.64
-0.8 2
0.66
-0.59
0.21
0.37
0.20
0.25
0.93
0.70
-1.86
0.38
0.77
1.01
2.51
-0.57
1.02
1.06
-0.94
2.07
0.95
-2.69
0.45
0.30
1.13
2.56
-0.53
-0.30
0.52
0.30
0.57
0.68
-0.83
0.70
-0.19
-0.82
-1.61
0.31
0.51
0.48
0.47
-0.49
0.90
1.51
0.70
-1.18
0.09
1.63
2.55
-2.16
0.00
0.55
-0,57
2.16
-0.88
1.42
-1.88
-1 .00
0.22
1 .33
-0.36
-0.49
-0.10
0.00
1.24
0.10
0.00
-0 .69
-0.29
-0.31
0.92
-2 .05
0 .81
0.93
-1.55
-0.16
-0.14
0.31
-0.10
-1.01
-0.21
0.60
-0.65
0.62
-0.13
-0.14
0.24
-0.19
1.02
-0.83
0.10
1.68
-0.52
0.86
1.34
3.05
1.46
-0.88
1.80
1.26
1.22
2.44
0.76
-0.92
0.80
-2.11
2.13
-1.15
-0.88
-0.60
0.45
0.46
-0.82
-0.33
0.04
0.55
-0.39
0.14
-0.82
0.07
0.44
0.29
-0.27
0.21
-0.10
-0.55
-0.12
0.24
1.07
2.22
-0.70
0.04
1.15
-1.24
1.19
0.67
-3.05
0.00
98 . CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRIC;ES FOR 28 SENSITIVE MATERIALS
(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966...
1967.. .
1968, . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982.. .
1.12
-0.56
1.30
2.80
-1.15
-0.61
-0.41
0.30
-0.10
-0.80
0.94
0.30
0.19
-0.73
0.72
0.00
0.00
-0.59
0.78
-1.00
-0.48
2.11
-0.76
0.81
1.81
1.51
-0.99
-3.22
3.14
-0.59
2.58
0.96
1.48
-1.81
-1.10
-1.58
1.87
0.35
-0.97
0,51
-0.10
0.70
0.57
-1.10
-0.31
1.38
-1.05
-0.42
-0.31
0.11
0.00
-0.59
0.68
-1.32
0.10
1.82
-1.69
1.51
0.46
4,06
-0.35
0.06
1.16
0.09
1.40
1.20
2.16
-2.50
0.56
-0.80
1.38
0.26
-0.20
0.40
-0.10
-0.60
0.43
-0.41
-0.7 3
1.36
-1.54
1.26
-0.92
-0.10
0.72
-0.30
1.44
-0.72
1.06
2.27
-1.46
1.75
0.15
3.77
2.60
-1.43
2.23
2.57
0.69
4.10
-0.62
0.64
1.89
-0.92
1.36
-0.70
-0.29
O.OO
-0.62
0.50
-0.19
-0.61
-0.21
0.67
-0.49
1.56
-0.83
-0.11
0.91
0.00
0.47
-0.41
0.19
-1.98
0.00
0.95
0.38
3.82
3.22
1.15
1.93
-0.31
1.13
0.30
-6.32
0.94
1.20
-1.40
2.90
-0.70
-0.69
0.10
0.10
0.70
-0.57
-0.61
-0.10
0.29
-0.39
-0.20
-0.31
0.63
-0.10
0.70
0.47
1.14
0.38
-1.46
0.96
0.09
0.92
2.96
-4.63
3.87
0.05
-0.76
2.12
0.33
-2.59
0.10
0.43
-1.06
2.82
-0 .97
-0.20
-0.20
0.21
0.59
-0.67
-0.10
0.84
0.95
-1.57
0.62
-0.63
0.10
0.30
-0.10
-0.19
2.05
1.52
-2.14
0.17
1 .28
1.74
0.76
-0.30
-1.95
1.20
-1.76
2.97
2.22
0 .83
0.30
0.00
-0.95
4.54
-2.68
-0.50
-0.10
1.98
0.49
-0.58
-0.10
0.62
-0.47
-0.60
-0.31
0.00
1.98
0.50
0.30
-0.19
1.01
1.68
-1.60
-0.86
2.86
1.49
-0.70
0.74
-0.47
4.58
2.07
0.46
-1.56
3.31
-1.19
-0.54
-0.72
5.05
-3.58
0.40
-0 .40
-0.10
1.08
-1.45
-0.31
2.07
-0.38
-1.71
0.10
0,42
0.82
0.80
1.18
-3.85
0.80
0.83
0.43
-0.09
2.37
1.25
3.57
-1.97
2.23
-0.61
3.60
1.21
-0.79
2.69
-1.34
-0 .65
0.24
4.51
-0 .67
-0.30
-0.41
0.61
0.87
-0.59
-0.83
1.32
0.00
-0.31
0.41
-0.21
-1.52
-0.40
-0.49 •
-0.68
1.48
1.18
0.25
-0.09
0.24
0.07
4.41
-1.81
3.39
1.56
2.04
0.78
0.40
0.81
-2.37
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR 'ERIOD
-0.40
-0.48
4 .70
-2.31
-0.13
-0.30
0.83
0.81
-0.87
-0.41
1.34
-0.28
-0.87
0.07
0.07
0.43
0.30
0.33
-1.57
1.10
1.23
-0.31
-0.35
1.82
0 .94
2.43
-1.01
1.72
1.84
2.57
0.82
-0.65
2.27
-1.63
-0.01
-0.45
2.30
-0.47
-0.47
-0.19
0.22
0.43
-0.32
-0.41
0.45
0.32
-0.74
0.12
-0.19
0.22
0.35
0.08
-0.25
0.38
1.07
0.05
-0.55
1.12
1.12
2.81
-1.24
0.52
1.46
0.64
1.48
0.44
0.40
-0.93
-1.03
0.76
0.64
0.07
-0.57
-0.51
0.37
0.19
-0.26
0.00
0.34
-0.10
-0.48
-0.27
-0.07
0.24
0.50
0.29
-0.66
0.52
2.14
0.31
-0.91
0.53
1.73
3.17
-3.78
0.87
0.77
0.22
1.48
-0.64
1.04
-1.33
99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS PRICES--PPI AND SPOT MARKET PRICES--MONTHLY DATA
(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
1960. ..
1961...
1962. . .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976. . .
1977.. .
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981. ..
1982. ..
-1.01
\.12
3.11
-1.26
-0.99
-0.52
0.91
-0.38
-1.16
0.10
-0.10
0.38
-0.31
0.91
-0.10
0.20
-0.77
1.22
-0.20
-0.39
1.92
0.17
0.28
1.99
1.8.1
0.44
-2.25
2.13
0,65
2.56
1.24
1.42
-1.60
-1.76
-2.44
0.66
O.40
-2.09
0.00
-0.31
0.80
-0.19
-1.56
-0.10
0.70
-0.96
0.41
-0.80
0.00
0.00
-0.29
0.93
-1.19
0.00
1.79
-0.78
1.20
0.85
3.84
1.94
0.19
1.07
0.91
0.75
2.32
1.68
-2.08
-0.90
-2.71
0.66
-0.71
-1.30
0.50
0.42
-0.79
0.28
-0.30
-0.63
1.19
-1.36
1.75
-0.51
-0.31
0.51
0.48
0.92
-1.10
0.69
1.32
-0.96
1.10
1.18
3.49
2.01
-0.58
2.19
2.22
0.35
3.76
-0.83
0.92
1.41
-3.64
0.98
-0.80
-1.03
-1.40
0.73
0.70
0.09
-0.60
-0.84
0.68
0.20
1.11
. -1.12
0.00
1.52
0.87
-0.18
-0.91
-0.39
-0.35
-0.09
1.08
0.75
2.54
1.81
1.29
2.20
-0.26
0.64
0.74
-4.73
0.83
0.40
-1.11
2.80
-0.72
-0.76
-0.10
0.31
0.00
-1.41
-0.50
0.11
0.29
-0.20
0.00
-0.31
0.52
-0.50
0.48
-0.55
0.41
-0.49
-0.52
0.27
-0.36
1.65
2.41
-3.92
1.65
0.28
-0.94
0.78
0.12
-3.67
-0,37
0.59
-1.57
2.62
-1.94
-0.86
-0.30
0.31
0.69
-1.15
0.10
0.84
0.68
-1.18
-0.70
-1.03
-0.31
0.30
-0.48
-0.09
1.12
0.59
-0 .79
-0.53
0.00
0.81
1.70
0.00
-2.81
0.96
-2.52
2.14
1.14
-0.74
-0.45
-0.10
0.00
5.42
-4.87
-0.68
-0.20
0.72
1.28
-0.10
-0.30
1.15
-0.29
-0.70
0.10
-0.31
1.15
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.59
-0.62
-1.07
1.08
0.72
0.97
0.49
-0.51
3.69
0.75
0.57
-0.48
2.83
-0.25
AVERAGE POR
0.00
1.26
6.40
-2.86
0.10
-0.41
-0.20
0.97
0.00
-0.30
1.66
-0.10
-0.70
0.40
0.31
0.41
1.39
0.76
-3.78
0.40
0.58
0.80
-0.36
1.69
0.88
3.76
-1.57
2.52
-0.97
1.66
1.66
-0.32
2.92
-0.41
-0.79
0.56
5.74
-0.71
-0.10
-0.82
0.82
0.87
0.19
-1.31
0.61
0.48
-0.40
0.20
-0.31
-0.82
0.49
-0.38
-1.15
0.60
0.97
0 .79
-0.27
0.44
0.08
1,72
-2.20
2.52
0.33
1.10
1.21
0.12
1.03
-1 .91
-1.09
-0.79
1.21
1.17
-1.17
-1.44
0.81
-0.48
-0.58
-0.92
1.82
0.19
-0.91
-0.30
0.21
0.83
1.46
0.19
-0.68
-0.20
1.53
-0.44
-0.18
-0.09
2.06
1.75
-3.55
-0.55
-0.65
-0.36
2.30
1.75
0.69
-1.14
-0.10
0.10
-0.10
0.38
-0.69
0.89
1.67
0.17
-1.19
0.70
1.30
4.11
-4.77
1 .36
0.92
2.46
-0.57
-0.69
-0.48
-1.05
-0.30
0.61
5.85
-2.81
-0.23
-0.48
0.45
1.04
0.03
-0.64
1.14
0.03
-0.60
0.23
-0.10
0.25
0.83
0.13
-1.64
0.37
0.71
0.32
-0.57
1.07
0.56
2.15
-1.09
1.51
1.02
1.17
1.15
-0.23
2.26
-0.86
PERIOD
-0.60
0.19
-0 .84
2.62
-0.73
-0.83
-0.39
0.28
0.56
-0.21
-0.64
0.39
0.27
-0.58
0.16
-0.23
0.16
0.53
0.14
-0.38
0.07
0.57
0.40
-0.51
0.60
1.16
2.55
-0.96
0.24
1.06
0.42
1.21
0.74
0.13
-0.78
1.70
0.09
-0.65
-0.34
0.37
0.44
0.07
-0.58
0.61
-0 .10
-0.68
-0.33
0.14
0.48
0 .61
0.35
-0 .62
0.53
1.57
0.14
-0.85
0.23
1.66
2.80
-3.49
0.27
0.27
0.51
1.30
0.06
0.54
-1.36
99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS P R I C E S — P P I AND SPOT MARKET P R I C E S — S M O O T H E D DATA 1
AVERAGE FOR
(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)
1948 . . .
1949...
1950. ..
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961. ..
1962. . .
1963. ..
1964 . . .
1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
-0.58
0.51
2.02
-0.31
-0.62
-0.19
0.39
0.46
-0.03
-0.41
0.29
-0.06
-0.58
-0.13
0.09
0.37
0.24
0.52
-0.54
0.50
1.64
0.25
-0.77
0.58
1.62
2.58
-3.28
0.72
0.49
1.00
1.12
0.01
0.16
-1.03
0.75
1.97
-0.98
-0.54
-0.17
0.49
0.35
-0.50
-0.12
-0.03
-0.16
-0.28
0.21
-0.02
0.18
-0.26
0.77
-0.58
0.32
1.75
0.10
-0.30
1.05
1.95
2.27
-2.67
1.34
0.77
1.70
0.97
0.38
-0.80
-1.77
0.74
1.27
-1.39
-0.33
-0.22
0.44
0.06
-0.94
-0.10
0.28
-0.47
0.27
0.11
-0.10
0.17
-0.29
0.93
-0.76
0.13
1.74
-0.34
0.48
1.26
2 .68
1.81
-1.58
1 .66
1.04
1.57
1.72
0.78
-1.15
-2.49
0.79
0.28
-1.51
-0.23
0.07
0.27
-0.02
-0.91
-0.37
0.73
-0.68
0.85
-0.47
-0.12
0.46
0.08
0.79
-0.95
0.10
1.30
-0.57
0.99
1.13
3.17
1.69
-0.29
1.81
1.11
0.90
2.36
-0.27
-0.52
-0 . 06
-2.71
1.12
-0.56
-1.25
-0.32
0.38
0.10
-0.14
-0.64
-0.49
0.79
-0.58
1.02
-0,73
-0.02
0. 59
0.48
0.31
-0,80
0.02
0.54
-0,44
0 .87
1.06
3,05
0.94
0.54
1,69
0.65
0,58
1,91
-2,18
0.17
0 . 55
-2.30
1 .81
-0.95
-0.96
-0,47
0.47
0.22
-0.58
-0.40
-0.21
0.64
-0.42
0.54
-0.73
0.07
0.48
0.45
-0.10
-0.16
-0.08
-0.20
-0.19
0.42
1.13
2.52
-0.37
0.42
1.35
-0.45
0.89
1.10
-3.06
0.23
0.55
-1.50
2.87
-1.83
-0.83
-0.40
0.45
0.56
-0.86
-0.28
0.37
0.39
-0.54
-0.03
-0.68
0.26
0.29
0.14
-0.24
0.38
0.07
-0.60
-0.28
0.24
1.07
1.96
-0.92
-0.26
1.40
-1.07
1.18
0.46
-1.79
-0.18
0.23
-0.50
4.21
-2.87
-0.62
-0.25
0.36
0.82
-0.65
-0.20
0.96
0.16
-0.78
-0.13
-0.45
0 .44
0.45
0.05
-0.75
0.54
0.41
-0.42
-0.55
0.58
0.93
1.92
-0.75
-0.41
1.44
-0.47
1.31
0.19
0.57
-0.36
-0 .07
0.25
5.33
-3.02
-0 .35
-0.39
0.36
1.01
-0.19
-0.40
1.18
0.06
-0.73
0.08
-0.22
0.33
0.80
0.11
-1.47
0.45
0.65
0.06
-0.61
1.00
0.68
2.15
-0.73
0.62
1. 12
0.57
1.30
-0.06
1.96
-0.61
-0 .46
0.48
5.15
-1.81
-0.31
-0.68
0.46
0.75
-0.05
-0.74
1.25
0.11
-0.64
0.17
-0.02
0.19
0.97
0.16
-1.76
0.32
0.87
0.35
-0.42
0.88
0.78
2.28
-1.77
1.50
0.29
0.98
1.44
0.14
1.90
-1.00
-0.58
0.32
3.81
-0.41
-0.46
-0.74
0.56
0.39
-0.02
-0.93
1.20
0.18
-0.69
-0.24
0.07
0.16
0.96
0.14
-1.32
0.35
1.18
0.37
-0.41
0,41
1.13
2.21
-2.54
1.08
-0.18
0.43
1.81
0.42
1.30
-1.40
NOTE: These series are introduced in this issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
-0 .56
0.24
2.44
0.04
-0.59
-0.46
0.51
0.38
0.08
-0.80
0.83
0.03
-0.70
-0.45
0.10
0.33
0.71
0.22
-0.70
0.48
1.45
0.25
-0.70
0.19
1.46
2.40
-3.07
0.46
0. 18
0.28
1.59
0.20
0.79
-1.50
-1.13
0.67
1 .75
-0.89
-0.50
-0.19
0.44
0.29
-0.49
-0.21
0.18
-0.23
-0.20
0.06
-0.01
0.24
-0.10
0.74
-0.63
0.32
1.71
0.00
-0.20
0.96
2.08
2.22
-2.51
1.24
0.77
1.42
1.27
0 .39
-0.60
-2 . 50
1.24
-0 .41
-1.24
-0.34
0.31
0.20
-0.25
-0.65
-0.36
0.72
-0.56
0.80
-0.64
-0.02
0.51
0.34
0.33
-0.64
0.01
0.55
-0.40
0.76
1.11
2.91
0.75
0.22
1.62
0.44
0.79
1.79
-1.84
-0.04
0 .24
-0.58
4.14
-2.57
-0.60
-0.35
0.39
0.80
-0.57
-0 . 29
0.84
0.20
-0.68
-0.03
-0.45
0.34
0.51
0.10
-0.82
0.46
0.38
-0.32
-0.48
0.61
0.89
2.01
-0.80
-0.02
1.32
-0.32
1.26
0.20
0.25
-0.38
'E1UOD
-0.53
0.35
3.80
-0.73
-0.45
-0.63
0.51
0.51
0.00
-0.82
1.09
0.11
-0.68
-0 . 17
0 .05
0.23
0 .88
0.17
-1.26
0.38
1.17
0.32
-0.51
0.49
1.12
2.30
-2.46
1.01
0 .10
0.56
1.61
0.25
1.33
-1.30
-0 .97
2.46
-0.49
-0.80
-0.45
0.25
0.48
-0.13
-0.56
0.34
0.30
-0.54
0.10
-0.24
0.13
0.54
0.13
-0.25
-0.11
0.47
0.56
-0.35
0.42
1.02
2.33
-0.07
-0.32
1.07
0.36
1.27
0.88
0.03
-0.58
{FEBRUARY 1983)
gg
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr,
May
June
July
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
72. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING—PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER-(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
..
. .
. .
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. ,
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. ,
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
13,417
14,055
12,677
16,503
19,632
21,227
21,000
20,529
24,515
28,695
29,171
28,567
31,433
32,999
33,582
36,039
38,931
43,562
53,062
60,701
65,333
73,450
88,586
91,020
84,533
94,317
113,994
140,679
125,359
124,443
135,140
156,481
191,948
211,868
1 0 1 .
13,358
13,979
12,764
17,116
19,641
21,277
21,064
20,692
24,686
23,720
28,835
28,583
31,870
32,966
33,712
36,126
39,195
44,618
53,908
61,023
65,595
74,190
90,119
91,733
85,317
98,059
115,346
139,640
125,775
125,798
135,597
158,774
195,929
212,042
C O M M E R C I A L
13,371
13,861
12,763
17,579
19,761
21,430
21,036
20,916
25,414
29,182
28,728
28,820
32,093
33,111
33,907
36,251
39,201
45,563
54,585
61,592
65,843
74,886
91,059
91,735
86,087
100,063
117,676
138,071
123,462
126,228
138,672
160,775
198,976
210,434
A N D
13,473
13,605
12,849
18,079
19 ,742
21,675
20,967
21,049
25,932
29,503
28,554
29,092
32,293
33,079
34,121
36,458
39,554
46,203
55,022
61,996
67,010
76,283
91,218
90,788
87,204
101,745
122,842
136,563
120,810
126,969
140,707
166,233
199,128
214 ,229
I N D U S T R I A L
13,834
13,409
12,936
18,453
19,809
21,816
20,811
21,416
26,448
29,650
28,168
29,573
32,59.1
33,020
34,269
36,626
39,882
47,209
55,877
62,132
67,184
77,457
91,684
91,522
87,828
103,053
125,111
133,775
121,102
127,814
143,160
168,821
197,899
220,579
f.OANS
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
8
8
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. ,
. .
. .
17,807
18,953
17,960
19,901
24,083
26,787
26,249
25,835
30,356
34,070
34,023
33,151
36,523
38,150
38,873
41,874
45,008
50,362
59,197
66,751
71,084
77,452
89,586
90,172
86,612
90,256
92,603
97,558
83,240
78,811
80,440
84,402
89,695
88,611
18,066
19,158
18,001
20,348
24,191
26,924
26,437
25,970
30,445
34,056
33,588
33,170
37,030
38,112
39,072
42,082
45,542
51,454
59,708
67,186
70,785
77,877
90,874
90,125
86,616
92,074
92,706
97,107
83,516
78,771
79,904
84,364
89,670
87,802
111.
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
31.2
3.8
18,3
21.4
\0.2
17.4
-2.0
. . .
.
.
.
.
.
.
13.3
7.0
1959*.
1 9 6 0 .
1 9 6 1 .
11'.9
10.1
5.3
10 *. 6
13.8
4.1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
12.1
10.5
.11.5
13.0
13.5
10.1
3.1
8.1
10.3
13.9
23.9
13.4
2.6
11.2
15.5
13.1
14.6
11.4
6.5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
•
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
,
.
.
MOTE:
U.I
11.4
2.4
8.5
12.0
i'.Q
9.6
19.6
12.0
4.7
5.3
12,9
13.3
19.0
14.2
7.5
18,089
18,870
18,093
21,548
24,478
27,465
26,173
26 ,4X8
31,644
34,895
33,178
33,633
37,334
38,435
39,696
42,68 4
46,075
53,017
60,869
68,748
72,228
79,531
91,7 23
88,703
88,434
92,833
95,821
94,507
79,376
77,847
81,146
86,086
90,226
86,979
18,467
18,767
17,996
22,080
24,594
27,530
26,013
27,025
32,061
35,114
32,688
34,190
37,726
38,512
39,9113
42,718
46,515
53,971
61,815
68,570
72,162
80,122
92,189
89,055
88,536
92,176
96,165
92,005
79,307
77,983
81,993
06,664
89,224
89,339
14,507
12,660
14,057
18,865
20,190
21,934
19,804
22,664
27,418
30,285
27,941
30,456
32,840
33,131
35,038
37,047
40,839
49,139
58,857
62,875
68,681
79,884
93,064
91,632
88,814
108,519
133,325
129,591
121,109
130,231
147,813
179,554
201,242
233,595
1 4
1 2
1 4
1 8
2 0
2 1
1 9
2 2
2 7
3 0
2 8
3 0
3 2
3 3
3 5
3 7
4 1
5 0
5 9
6 3
6 9
8 0
9 3
9 3
8 8
L O S
3 7
2 8
L 2 O
L 3 0
L48
L 8 4
2 0 2
2 3 8
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
4
6
6
9
3
8
7
9
7
3
1
6
9
2
3
3
4
1
3
2
3
8
3
3
5
4
3
1
6
7
,
, 2
, 8
, 4
6 1
4 1
9 6
6 8
8 1
1 9
5 3
7 7
7 8
7 4
2 2
4 6
5 6
1 4
1 8
4 1
1 8
4 1
2 8
0 3
3 9
8 9
0 9
6 2
5 3
4 3
9 7
0 9
8 1
8 5
6 7 4
8 9
7 0
9 1
1 4 , 3 5 6
1 2 , 5 7 0
1 5 , 0 2 7
1 9 , 1 1 1
2 0 , . 5 5 0
2 1 , 6 4 0
1 9 , 7 1 8
2 3 , 4 2 1
2 7 , 3 5 8
2 9 , 9 6 9
2 8 , 2 1 5
3 0 , 9 1 5
3 2 , 9 9 6
3 3 , 2 1 5
3 5 , 5 3 5
3 7 , 3 2 1
4 1 , ( 5 2 5
5 0 , 3 1 2
5 9 , 3 2 2
6 3 , 5 8 7
7 0 , 1 6 3
8 2 , 0 7 3
9 1 , 3 5 2
9 2 , 5 6 6
9 0 , 5 7 0
,LO9,'59O
1 3 8 , 3 7 9
1 2 7 , 0 0 9
1 2 1 , 7 5 3
1 3 2 , 0 8 4
1 5 0 , 3 4 2
L 8 5 , 0 5 8
2 0 4 , 3 7 9
2 4 0 , 9 5 0
N O N F I N A N C I A L C O M M E R C I A L
AVERAGE FOR PEKIOi)
14,196
12,604
15,462
19,194
21,031
21,451
19,955
23,771
28,199
29,573
28,342
31,076
33,118.
33,280
35,939
38,579
42,068
51,650
60,282
64,065
71,105
82,627
91,241
92,402
91,501
110,939
139,813
126,165
123,353
133,301
152,578
183,833
208,438
243,580
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
9
9
1
3
2
2
3
5
8
1
4
4 , 0 8 7
2 , 5 7 3
5 , 9 8 6
9 , 4 1 1
1 , 1 3 3
1 , 0 5 8
0 , 3 1 4
4 , 1 1 0
8 , 3 9 5
9 , 5 1 7
f l , 4 9 6
1 , 2 8 8
3 , 0 1 8
3 , 4 2 9
5 , 9 8 6
9 , 0 4 5
2 , 7 3 7
2 , 3 0 0
0 , 5 3 2
4 , 8 3 0
2 , 2 1 0
3 , 3 6 5
1 , 1 1 9
1 , 8 1 4
2 , 1 3 9
1 , 7 8 7
9 , 8 9 2
6 , 2 5 1
4 , 1 8 6
4 , 2 4 5
2 , 6 3 4
6 , 9 5 7
0 , 3 6 3
6 , 5 4 4
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
6
7
7
8
9
8
8
9
9
8
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
7
9
3
6
6
5
0
3
4
3
6
8
8
1
5
9
8
6
0
6
4
0
7
9
3
7
4
9
0
3
9
9
9
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
8
9
1
3
2
2
3
5
9
1
3
3
2
7
9
1
1
0
4
8
8
6
1
3
3
6
9
4
3
1
5
4
9
1
5
7
6
9
4
5
6
8
5
1
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
3
9
7
0
6
3
0
7
8
8
9
6
7
0
7
1
1
5
8
1
5
1
9
4
3
4
0
4
8
4
4
6
6
4
8
6
3
6
7
1
3
1
7
6
1
5
9
2
3
3
0
8
5
0
9
7
2
9
1
8
0
6
6
9
7
7
1
4
2
5
5
6
8
1
3
2
2
6
1
7
9
5
4
9
9
1
2
5
0
5
1
6
2
0
5
3
5
0
0
7
8
8
18,902
18,153
18,339
22,738
24,973
27,222
25,918
27,918
32,993
35,454
32,620
34,844
38,191
38,551
40,416
42,789
47,033
54,552
63,452
68,922
72,801
81,320
92,413
86,905
88,042
94,495
96,263
88,638
78,401
78,812
83,146
88,377
88,244
91,914
18,927
17,881
18,523
23,020
24,933
27,529
24,855
28,329
33,150
35,456
32,547
35,477
38,206
38,642
40,711
43,100
47,571
55,763
64,265
69,142
73,685
82,173
93,299
88,190
88,197
90,963
94,826
87,326
78,489
79,701
83,605
89,732
87,535
93,851
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
7
7
9
9
8
9
9
9
8
7
8
8
8
8
7
9
7
0
4
6
6
6
0
4
3
3
6
8
9
2
5
1
9
7
0
7
0
0
6
1
2
7
2
8
0
4
9
7
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
9
0
9
3
2
9
3
0
6
2
6
2
8
1
0
0
3
4
7
3
9
8
7
0
8
3
6
0
8
6
4
,
, 9
, 5
8
4
7
8
1
0
6
5
8
5
2
4
8
8
8
9
8
3
8
3
4
3
1
4
4
7
3
5
5
2
8
4
5
8
6
5
8
3
5
6
3
4
7
8
2
1
5
1
1
7
5
2
8
1
6
1
2
3
6
7
1
0
8
9
0
1 7
0
8
14,451
12,711
14,124
18,81*3
20,237
21,844
20,069
2 2,628
27,4«7
30,301
28,034
30,376
32,930
33,119
35,C32
37,Q?»7
40,8^5
49,117
58, 6?4
62,967
68,678
79,913
92,979
91,674
88,616
107,8f>l
13 3,816
129,430
121,052
129,984
147,857
179,875
201,475
233,5%8
AVERAM
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
9
8
9
9
8
7
7
8
9
8
9
8
7
9
3
5
7
4
8
3
5
2
5
8
8
0
3
8
6
4
9
4
3
3
0
7
2
7
5
7
9
3
0
7
6
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
8
8
0
1
2
2
8
4
3
6
7
4
3
7
7
4
0
8
7
5
1
1
0
2
7
4
8
8
7
7
3
6
9
0
9
2
1
7
7
3
9
8
2
5
5
7
4
3
2
9
0
3
7
0
3
1
6
2
6
4
6
6
5
4
8
9
7
5
4
7
3
6
0
6
3
9
4
1
8
4
0
8
9
7
4
0
9
3
2
4
0
0
3
9
1
4
8
7
4
3
5
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
8
8
9
9
8
7
8
8
8
8
9
:i4,213
12,616
"5,492
1,9,239
20,9 38
21,383
19,996
23,767
28,151
^9,686
28,151
31,093
33,044
3 3,308
35,353
:i8, 48 2
42,143
;> i , •> 8 7
t> 0 ,
212
K4,161
"U, 159
ii 2 , 6 8 8
91,404
512,261
fU , 4 0 3
1.'.0,8 05
I'39, 361
i;>6,475
12 3,097
133,210
1!U,851
i«5,iB3
207,727
243,691
i \
L 'i
u
-)4 '
11>
i
?]
•»
i
L ' •
'
•1 '
i ^ •
.'h
J"*n
?<*M
2^
it <> I 1
i i
1
{4
1 .
40
r
In
.7
) 1
iH
I •
h2 l>1
r,H I
'H
tl
, ,
l|
l
t> II'
l.t!
).,n
11)4
.in I
I*'**
> t
1 it
1 .V
1 JQ
1 *4
1 . -t
e" I
/'*'**
1 i
, ) •
t
•'•
fi
•>
M"«
1
) ^
P A P E R —
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
18,640
18,592
18,311
22,456
24,893
27,518
26,023
27,355
32,487
35,431
32,667
34,775
38,308
38,631
40,249
42,797
46,813
54,150
62,932
68,641
72,594
80,881
92,636
87,708
88,512
92,087
96,806
90,121
79,348
79,010
82,740
87,748
90,522
90,592
13,791
13,392
13,009
18,393
19,840
21,746
20,809
21,420
26,393
29,729
28,267
29,569
32,632
33,018
34,300
36,608
39,858
47,043
55,951
62,207
67,286
77,427
91,764
90,994
87,786
103,320
124,826
133,912
121,317
127,935
143,163
169,042
199,630
219,674
8
7
9
3
5
7
4
9
3
5
2
6
8
8
1
3
8
7
5
9
5
4
1
9
9
4
6
4
8
0
3
9
7
6
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
1
0
3
0
2
7
7
9
2 0
5
6
1
3
9
3
5
3
0
5
5
3
0
5
3
1
4
6
0
7
8
8
7
1
3
18,787
17,857
19,619
23,421
26,360
27,070
25,147
29,633
33,741
34,711
32,973
36,245
38,384
38,815
41,654
44,713
48,757
58,255
66,449
70,451
75,757
84,058
91,123
89,265
90,327
94,901
96,890
84,335
79,174
80,544
84,251
88,552
88,962
98,178
1.9
-1.9
12.7
13.7
5.8
23.0
1.1
10.9
3
9
3
3
7
1
9
3
4
2
3
0
2
7
3
9
1
5
7
9
0
0
7
5
3
1
B
5
2
1
3
7
6
9
7
5
3
2
4
9
1
7
6
6
1
4
3
5
4
8
2
8
2
1
5
2
2
5
5
3
6
4
4
3
4
4
2
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
7
8
7
6
7
5
7
0
8
5
1
4
3
8
8
4
5
6
7
7
6
4
9
8
2
8
1
1
0
6
5
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
-
2
2
1
7
5
5
1
6
8
4
0
0
5
4
1
5
9
1
9
6
8
3
3
2
8
6
3
2
6
8
6
4
6
4
7
8
5
1
5
0
3
8
6
1
1
5
5
4
4
2
2
6
1
6
2
2
0
4
6
9
7
8
2
2
0
7
7
9
6
9
4
2
3
18,399
18,743
18,133
22,028
24,655
27,504
26,070
26,933
32,064
35,147
32,844
34,199
37,789
38,526
39,954
42,733
46,468
53,713
61,872
68,653
72,328
80,178
92,183
88,489
88,494
92,365
96,264
92,211
79,344
78,280
81,960
86,833
89,991
88,970
»• ><
1
! ]»)
I
t t
(j , \
i , -) M
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M
1 3 , o«' 'i
72,1 i
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H,3 4
f ,
5
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38, n 1
til
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1] , i> '4
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I)9, Is- 9
7J,S ,9
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i [,
^
L
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K 7,c h
78,216
79,4
20
83,378
89,601
87,918
93,938
)
i4
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17 ; 1
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92, V I
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81
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33,1 >b
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19
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1)8,605
!»8,U8
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4l 2 ,
H?' '5 (Ml
ay, Ill's
I'M
CHANGE IN CREDIT 3UTSTANDING—BUSINESS AND CONSUMER BORROWING
!ANNUAL RITE. PPRPPMTl
14.8
3.0
16.9
22.5
5.0
14.7
2.4
14^4
7.5
1 9 5 6 ^
1 9 5 7 ,
18,084
19,025
17,972
20,899
24,371
27,006
26,402
26,359
31,259'
34,648
33,254
33,403
37,103
38,280
39,299
42,334
45,606
52,479
60,458
68,055
70,970
78,161
91,675
89,831
87,309
91,801
92,585
96,486
81,817
78,305
81,095
84,485
90,485
86,350
14,385
12,833
13,619
18,757
20,141
21,778
20,651
22,244
27,145
30,245
28,039
30,026
32,993
33,012
34,740
36,872
40,428
48,072
57,838
62,824
68,015
79,055
92,565
90,028
33,482
106,590
130,725
130,741
121,365
128,936
147,085
175,782
200,314
228,589
O U T S T A N D I N G — P L U S
IN 1972 DOLLARS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
14,065
13,163
13,242
18,646
19,969
21,747
20,650
21,796
26,799
30,033
28,079
30,042
33,011
32,955
34,509
36,740
40,137
47,718
56,955
62,494
67,664
78,541
92,389
90,671
88,246
105,163
1 26,526
131,397
122,038
129,023
145,623
172,073
201,863
224,215
Annual
IV Q
III Q
II Q
17.9
1.5
13.1
15.6
7.8
18.a
-1.0
21.8
-0.8
17.5
15.2
5.3
15.1
-1.2
isls
19.4
-0.7
29.2
6.0
21.0
5.0
-1.5
25.5
-1.0
42.3
2.2
16.0
8.7
2.6
16.9
3.6
32.4
7.0
10.0
9.7
-15.2
9.7
1 0 . 2
3 7 . 7
3,5
2 2 . 4
1.8
4.8
3.9
3.1
2.1
.
.
.
.
.
3
1
2
8
5
2 1 . 3
2.8
1 6 . 1
1 9 . 8
7 .7
17.0
-0.2
24.2
1.2
22.0
11.0
14.1
11.2
-1.7
17 ,,4
0.7
4.3
14.1
13.7
a. 5
21.1
-0.9
37.5
5.5
14 ,,8
7 ,,4
-3.,2
1
1
.
15
It..*
14.4
a. v
I B . •""
14^0
7.2
1L7
9.4
10 is
io!l
5.6
1 0
9.2
14.5
10,3
4.5
16.6
9.7
5.3
16.8
10.8
5.9
15.3
6.7
6.4
16.3
5.7
7.8
1 3 . 9
11.4
10.6
13.2
9.3
4.6
8.6
13.5
10.8
12.5
8.1
4.0
11 .6
12.8
12.2
14.0
7 .9
3.7
8.0
11.9
10.1
10.6
7.2
6.8
7.2
13.3
11.7
10.2
7.3
6.2
8.1
12.5
10.7
12.7
7.0
6.5
8.1
1 3 . 2
1 3 . 2
1 2 . 9
8.4
15.4
18.C
9.3
-1.5
7.21
15.1
18.8
12.6
7.6
4.4
6.1
16.0
16.1
19.0
-0.1
5.7
15.4
16.0
17,8
0.8
10.6
11.1
13.4
16.0
13.6
-1.5
11.1
15,5
18.1
14.9
-4.0
11.5
7.1
13.8
16.3
9.0
0.1
11.5
16.4
16.7
14.6
2.1
8.8
7.4
11.5
14.2
14.9
6.1
9.1
13.1
14.4
14.6
0.1
9.9
15.3
13.6
14.8
11.3
4.6
9.7
17.0
13.2
13.3
6.8
9.2
I S . 8
1 1 . 6
13 ". 9
9.4
6.4
1 7 . 2
2 0 , 3
7.3
1 8 . 3
9.5
18^8
10.9
These series are introduced i n t h i s issue.
100
31.3
5.2
19.3
11.9
16.0
13.6
-2.3
3^0
2,3
.8
7.3
1 3 , 0
7.6
8.3
4.2
7.1
9.2
7,7
6.9
3.0
1 4 , 5
9,6
9,9
4.2
S.7
1 Q , 9
8.4
1 9 . 0
1 2 . 0
4,1
7,4
1 2 . 1
4.5
1
1
1
1
0
4
2
5
.
.
.
.
3
5
5
8
8.6
9.3
1
1
1
1
3
5
2
0
,
.
.
.
5
5
8
9
7,7
3.6
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i
10^4
1.6
9.4
4.9
11.2
8.2
9 .8
10*.l
14.7
9.6
10.7
4.2
8.8
11.0
1 2 . 4
1 2 . 6
1 0 . 3
11.8
16.5
10.6
5.5
6.3
13.8
16.2
15.0
5.7
9.4
3.7
1 0 . 0
1 5 . 2
7 .9
5.0
1 0 . 6
3.7
9.8
1 1 . 9
1.8
9.2
1 2 . 7
1 5 . 4
1 1 . 6
8.9
8.4
3.5
11.7
11.4
13.3
10.3
3.4
8.2
10.9
13.7
8.7
1.8
16.0
10.3
5.4
12.1
12.7
11.0
12.4
7.7
4.8
8.9
11.5
8.6
13.0
20.5
11.7
1.9
7.9
14.5
15.1
15.4
11.1
6.1
8.1
14.4
16.1
13.9
-0.5
9.4
15.8
16.9
15.8
-0,4
10.3
15.5
8.5
0 .8
12.1
11.1
5.3
10.5
7 ,4
S .6
15 ,,2
6.,7
7.5
11.7
13.0
11 ,,9
11.9
6.2
6.6
8.0
12.,8
12., 2
12.2
12.8
5.1
9 ,,7
14 ,,9
13.4
14.6
5.2
9 ,,5
1 2 . 7>.
fi .'1
10,8
11.4
6.7
9.5
12.5
13.9
10,6
10.3
4.0
3.4
11.3
6.6
J.6
10.1
lfi.9
10.2
3.8
7.6
13.3
15.7
13.1
3.5
3.5
3 ,6
4 ,H
L3.7
H. 1
6.')
II.1*
U.i*
i2J'i
7 .:•!
[j # : i
ill
') , '3
14 ! I
M..<!
10. i
1 .
i
It). I
L i . ->
14.M
1U.
I'S
6.1
1.4
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
51.9
46.9
55.4
56.0
56.1
59.0
57,3
66.4
66,6
65.0
63.4
74.0
71.0
74 ,8
78.7
84.4
89.8
95.3
100.4
98.1
105.4
112,0
105.0
113.4
123.1
133.3
125.1
113.4
130.5
139.1
146.5
146.8
132.1
14 4 . 1
910. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS
(1967=100)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. . .
1955...
1956...
1957...
52.8
48.2
52.2
58.7
55.5
59.7
55.6
64.1
67.0
65.4
1958 . . ,
1959...
I960., .
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963.,.
1964...
1965.. .
1966.. .
1967. . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971, . .
1972. . .
1973.,.
1974., .
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977. . ,
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
6 2.2
71.4
72.9
70.9
78.8
81.6
87.2
94.5
99.9
97.4
104.4
112.2
107.5
108.6
119.2
132,4
128.7
107.7
126.1
134.5
141.0
147.7
141.4
142.1
51.3
47.8
53.0
58.2
55,6
59.8
56.1
65.2
66.7
65.3
61.6
72.3
72.1
71.4
79.9
82.4
88.2
94.8
100.8
97.0
105,5
112.1
106.6
110.2
120.7
134.1
128.0
107.6
128.0
136.5
142.8
147.5
140.4
140.4
51.5
47.4
53.3
57.9
55.8
60.1
56.1
66.0
67.1
65.3
62.0
73.7
70.8
72.7
80.0
83.2
88.4
95.2
101.9
96.9
105.7
111.7
105.5
111.9
122.2
134.2
127.8
107.8
128.8
138.4
144.9
149.3
137.4
141.7
52.1
46.8
54.4
56.7
55.4
59.7
56.7
66.1
67.4
64.8
51.7
47 .0
55.4
56.3
55.9
59.1
57.3
66.5
66 .3
65.0
52.0
46.8
56.3
55.1
57.1
58.1
57,9
66.7
66.0
65.3
52.0
47,7
58.6
54.5
56.8
58,2
58.7
67.4
66.4
65.2
62.2
74.0
70.9
73.9
79.6
83.9
89.3
95.0
101.5
97.1
104.7
112.7
104.5
112.9
123.0
133.4
126.1
111.0
129.3
138.5
146.3
146.4
133.4
144.6
63.4
74.2
71,0
74,8
78.7
84.7
90.2
95.6
100.2
97 .9
105.4
112.2
105.1
113.7
122.9
133.5
125.5
113.4
130.5
138.9
146.4
147.6
130.9
144.5
73.7
71.1
75.7
77.9
84.5
89.9
95.3
99.4
99.2
106.0
111.2
105.5
113.5
123.3
133.1
123.8
115.8
131.6
139.8
146.9
146.5
132.0
143.2
73.4
71.4
75.7
78.7
84.3
90.8
95.5
99.1
100.1
106.9
110.2
104.8
113.3
124,4
132.7
123.5
118.2
132.2
138.5
145.4
145.2
135.1
142.9
51.1
48.9
59.9
54.1
57.5
57.3
58.'
67. i
66. >
65.
73.
71.'
76."
79,3
84.7
91.5
95.8
98.3
101.9
106.5
110.3
104.7
113.7
126.0
131.5
120.3
119.0
131.9
140.5
146.2
144.5
138.3
142.4
50.0
49.5
47.9
57,6
57.9
63.8
60,0
61.9
68.3
69.6
64.3
67.0
71.9
67.0
7 2.0
74.5
78.6
85.4
93.6
99.4
102.8
109.1
110.8
108.6
114.0
125.5
128.7
116.2
121.4
128.3
137.1
149.3
150.7
146.8
49.9
49.1
47.6
57.4
58.8
64.3
60.0
62.3
68.2
70,0
63.0
67.7
71.6
66.8
72.7
75.1
79.4
86.0
94.3
98.8
103.5
109.9
1,1.0.8
108.5
114.4
127.0
128.0
114.6
122.9
129.2
138.3
149.4
149.6
147.2
50.0
48.1
50.3
57.9
58.5
64.9
59.1
64.3
68.8
69.3
61.0
69-8
71.3
67.5
7 3.7
76.0
80.4
87.3
95.5
99.1
104.4
110.8
110.5
109.1
116.6
127.2
127.6
113.3
124.3
131.6
143.0
149.1
145.1
147.1
50.4
48.5
49.1
57.6
58.7
64.9
59.4
63.5
68.2
69.9
62.1
68.8
71.0
67.3
73.2
75.4
79.5
86.8
95.4
98.9
104.0
110.5
110.8
108.8
115.6
127.4
127.8
113.0
123.6
130,9
140.0
151.2
148.1
147.2
930.
50.3
47.5
51.4
57.8
58.8
65.0
58.9
65.2
68.4
68.9
61.2
70.6
70 .9
68.3
73.7
76.3
81.0
87.9
96.0
99.0
105.2
110.8
110.1
109,6
117.2
127.5
128,2
114.1
124.6
132.5
143.1
150.6
14 2.4
146.9
50.1
50.8
58.4
54.9
58.7
55.8
60.9
67.1
66.4
63.5
49.3
51.1
57.5
54.9
58.9
55.3
62.3
67.5
66.4
62.7
48 .9
51.4
57.6
55.4
59.1
55.4
63.1
67.2
66.0
62.1
73,3
71.5
76 .4
79.9
85,7
92.7
96.4
97.3
102.3
108.1
110.8
104.9
114.6
127.5
130.9
116.5
120.6
132.4
141.1
146.8
144.5
141.2
139.3
72.7
71.2
77.5
80.0
86,3
92.8
97.0
96.7
102.5
110.3
110.7
104.4
115.5
129.4
131.0
113.5
122.0
132.2
141.9
147 .9
141.7
142.4
136.9
71.9
70.8
78.5
80.8
86.5
93.1
98.0
96.5
103.2
110.8
109.5
105.0
116.5
130.3
131.1
111.2
122.4
133.5
141.6
147 .6
140.1
143.4
137.0
73.2
70.4
78.8
81.0
86.7
93.7
99.1
96.4
104.4
111.5
109.1
107.3
118.0
131.4
128.7
109.2
122.8
134.5
142.4
147.2
140.5
143.0
136.2
51.9
47,8
52.8
58.3
55.6
59.9
55.9
65.1
66.9
65.3
61.9
72.5
71.9
71.7
79.6
82.4
87.9
94.8
100.9
97.1
105.2
112.0
* 106.5
110.2
120.7
133.6
128.2
107.7
127.6
136.5
142.9
148.2
139.7
141.4
49.4
51.1
57.8
55.1
58.9
55.5
62.1
67,3
66.3
62.8
70.0
72.6
70.8
78.3
80.6
86.5
93.2
98,0
96.5
103.4
110.9
109.8
105.6
116.7
130.4
130.3
111.3
122.4
133,4
142.0
147.6
140.8
142.9
136.7
51.1
48.7
56,3
56.0
57.1
57.9
58.6
66.6
66.5
64,5
65.7
73.1
' 71.3
75.2
79.6
84.5
90.6
96.0
99.0
100.0
107.2
111.1
105.5
113.5
125.0
132.2
121.2
115.7
130.9
139.4
145.8
145.1
138.2
140.9
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
51.4
47.1
56.5
57.6
59.9
64.1
58.7
66.2
68.2
69.1
63.6
68.1
69.7
70.1
51.3
47.8
55.8
57.3
61.6
63.4
59.0
66.7
68.9
68.4
64.2
67.9
69.3
70.2
51.4
45.7
56.0
57.6
62.5
63.1
59.4
67.4
69.6
67.7
64.6
67 .6
69.1
71.0
51.1
46.6
55.8
57.8
62.8
61.9
60.4
67.8
69.4
66 .6
66.2
68.3
68.1
72.0
50.6
47.2
57.1
57.7
63.4
60.8
61.2
68.2
69.9
65.4
65.9
70.9
67.2
72.4
50.1
49 .0
48.2
57.5
58.5
64.3
59.8
62.6
68.2
69.8
63.1
67.8
71.5
67 .0
50,5
47.6
51.5
57.9
58.6
64.9
59.0
65.0
68.5
69.1
61.4
70.4
70.9
68 .4
51.3
47.2
55.7
57.4
59.6
64.1
58.8
66.4
67.7
68.9
63.6
68.7
69.7
69.9
51.0
46.5
56.3
57.7
62,9
61.9
60.3
67.8
69.6
66.6
65.6
68.9
68.1
71.8
50.7
47.6
52.9
57.6
59.9
63.8
59.5
65.4
68.5
68.6
63.4
69.0
70.0
69.3
76 .6
81.2
88.5
97.1
99.2
106.0
111.4
109.7
109.8
116.9
127.8
128.3
114.9
124.8
133.6
144.2
150.6
141.1
147.5
76,8
81.9
89.4
97.3
99.5
106.6
112.1
109.8
109.6
117 .8
128,7
128.2
115.6
125.3
134.3
145.0
151,0
140.8
147.6
76.9
82.5
89.6
97.6
100.3
106.8
112.5
109.3
109.3
119.3
127.8
127.3
117.3
125.5
134.6
145.9
150.6
141.2
147.3
77.4
83.1
90.2
97.7
100.4
107.1
112.6
109.0
110.1
119.9
128.7
126.5
118.1
125.6
135.8
146.1
150.4
142.7
146.5
78.0
82.1
91.2
98.3
100.3
107.7
112.9
106.7
110 .2
121.8
129 .7
125.2
118.5
125.3
136.6
147.4
150.3
144.2
144,5
77.7
83.7
92.1
98.3
102.0
108.5
111.9
105.8
111.0
123.2
130.7
1.22,2
118.9
126.8
137.2
148.4
149.9
145.3
143.0
78.3
85.1
93 .0
98.6
103.3
108.9
112.0
107.6
112.2
124.5
129.8
118.4
119.5
127.8
138.1
149,7
150.0
146.1
140.9
75.0
79.2
86.1
94.4
99.0
103.4
109.8
110.8
108 .6
114.7
126.6
128.2
114.6
122.6
129.5
138.5
150.0
149.5
147.1
76.3
80.9
87.9
96.2
99.1
105.2
111.0
110.1
109.5
116.9
127.5
128.0
114.1
124.6
132.6
143,4
150.1
14 2.9
147.2
77.0
82.5
89.7
97.5
100.1
106.8
112.4
109.4
109.7
119.0
128.4
127.3
117.0
125.5
134,9
145,7
150.7
141.6
147 .1
78.0
83.6
92.1
98.4
101.9
108.4
112.3
106.7
111.1
123.2
130.1
121.9
119.0
126.6
137.3
148.5
150.1
145.2
142.8
76.6
81.5
89.0
96.6
100.0
106.0
111.4
109.2
109.7
118 .4
128.2
126.4
116.2
124.8
133.6
144 .0
150.2
144.8
146.0
40.0
39.3
42.8
50.2
53.3
57,9
52.6
60.0
40.2
39.0
4 3.7
50.3
53.8
57.3
52.7
60.2
40.0
38.6
44.5
50.8
54.1
56.3
53.0
61.2
40.0
38.8
45.1
50.6
55.2
55.3
52.6
62.5
40.2
38.9
45 .6
51.3
56.5
54,9
53.2
63.9
39.7
38.8
46.5
52.2
56.8
54.3
53.9
64.4
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
6 7.0
71.8
64.1
74.9
76.7
73.8
77.9
81,9
87.0
66.6
69.3
64.0
76.2
76.6
73.5
78.1.
82.9
87.7
67.0
69.2
64.3
77.0
75.8
73.9
78.3
83.4
88.2
67.8
67.8
64.3
77.3
75.0
74.5
78.3
83.8
88.9
68.1
64.6
66.1
78.6
74.5
74.8
78.5
83 .5
89.8
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
99.3
99.8
104 .9
114.8
109.1
104.4
106.2
\14 .6
121.0
104.3
103.8
111.4
119.2
126.2
121.7
100.3
100.3
105.9
115.1
108.3
104.4
107.6
113.6
118.6
103.3
104.2
112.3
118.8
130.2
119.0
100.2
101.1
107.0
113.7
107.2
104.7
109.4
115.6
115.2
102.8
104.7
111.6
121 .7
132.3
119.0
100.2
101.5
108.0
113.6
107.3
105.1
109.6
116 .7
112.8
103.4
105.2
112,8
121 .0
129.6
122.2
51.1
49.1
59.2
54.4
57.8
57.1
58.9
67.6
66.4
64.8
67.5
73.3
71.4
76.3
79.3
84.9
91.7
95.9
98.2
101.4
107.2
110.4
104.8
113.9
126.0
131.7
L20.1
119.3
132.2
140.0
146.1
144.7
138.2
141.5
51.3
46.6
54.7
57.3
57.3
64.9
58.7
66.2
65.9
69.1
63.1
70.2
70.0
69.4
COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS
(1967=100)
ivisions beginning with 1948.
Annual
51.2
47.2
52.7
57.9
58.4
64.7
58.9
65.6
68.4
69.1
62.1
70.8
70.4
69.3
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
99.6
100.4
105,6
114.8
108,8
104.2
107.3
114.4
119.0
103.8
104.3
111.6
119,7
127.1
120.7
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR
50.2
50.6
59.2
54.7
59.2
55.9
59.7
67.9
66.3
64.2
920. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1M0...
1961..,
1962. . .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970. . .
1971. . .
1972.,.
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975...
1976, . .
1977, . .
1978...
1979.,.
1980. . .
1981.. .
1982,. .
III Q
AVERAGE FOR
39.2
38.7
47.1
51.9
57.3
53.5
56.5
64.9
71.0
61.9
71.4
78.4
73.1
76.2
80.0
85.0
90.7
38.8
40.1
47.3
51.9
57.9
53.2
56.9
65.9
72.3
63.5
75.1
75.8
73.4
76.6
80.3
85.9
90.5
39.7
41.4
47.8
51.7
58.1
53.0
58.2
66.0
71.8
64 .0
76.3
75.8
73.1
77.1
80.7
86.6
91.2
39.2
42.5
48.3
52.3
58.3
53.0
59 .4
66.6
39.4
42.0
49 .4
53.0
58.5
52.9
59.4
66.4
40.1
39.0
43 .7
50.4
53.7
57.2
52.8
60.5
40.0
38.8
45.7
51.4
56,2
54.8
53.2
63.6
63.3
68.3
79.4
73.7
75.6
79.0
84 .3
89.9
39.7
38.5
47,0
52.3
56.9
54.1
54.2
66.1
68.4
62.6
69.4
79.2
73.3
75.9
79.5
83.8
89.7
63.8
76.4
76.4
72.6
77.5
82.1
85.7
91.9
100.4
101.8
109.2
114.0
105.2
105.9
110.7
117.1
108.6
102.9
106.3
113.7
122.3
125.5
122.4
100.5
101.5
109.3
113.5
106.0
105.4
112.0
117.1
108.0
103.2
106.2
114.3
122.3
121.8
122.5
99.8
102.2
109.9
114.1
107.0
105.0
112.0
117.2
106.9
103.2
107.2
114.8
123.0
120.5
123.3
100.3
102.5
110.4
113.6
106.9
104,9
113.2
118.6
105.9
103.9
107.7
115.4
124.7
119.4
124.7
100.1
102 .6
111.1
113.5
106.4
105.1
113.3
118.7
106.0
104.2
108.3
115.3
125.8
119.0
125 .0
99.6
103.2
111.3
112.8
106 .0
105.1
113.6
119.7
104 .7
103.8
109.0
117.1
126 .3
120.1
124.5
64.7
75.2
77.2
73.0
78-0
82.4
86.1
92.3
99.3
99.6
104.3
111.8
111.0
105.9
104 .8
114.5
121.1
104.6
103.7
109 .4
118.0
126.1
123.0
124.4
70.1
64.1
76.0
76.4
73.7
78.1
82.7
87.6
93.1
99.7
100..2
105.5
114.9
108.7
104.3
107.0
114,2
119,5
103.8
104.1
111.8
119.2
127.8
120.5
65.2
66.2
78.4
74.4
75.0
78.6
83,9
89,5
95.5
100.3
101.5
108.1
113.8
106.6
105.2
109.9
116.5
112.2
103.0
105.4
112.7
121 .7
129.1
121.2
39.2
39.1
47.1
52.0
57.4
53.6
55.9
65.6
70.6
62,7
72,0
77.8
73.3
76.2
79.9
84.9
90.3
97.3
102*1
109.9
113.7
106.6
105.1
112.4
117.6
106.9
103.4
107.0
114.8
123.3
120.6
123.5
'ERIOD
39.4
42.0
48.5
52.3
58.3
53.0
59.0
66.3
72.5
64*2
76.0
76.5
72.9
77.5
81.7
86.1
91.8
98,7
99*. 8
103.4
111.4
112.4
106.1
105.0
113.8
119.8
105.1
103.9
108.9
116.8
126.1
120 .7
124.6
38.0
39.7
39.7
46.3
51.5
56.4
54.6
55.2
64.0
69.5
65.5
69.6
77.2
74.2
75.6
79.6
84.4
89.8
96.2
100*0
101.8
108,7
113.7
107,0
104 .9
110.8
117.0
110.9
103.5
106.4
114 .0
122.6
124.6
122.4
(FEBERUARY 1983)
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb,
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
IQ
96.9
97.1
102.2
101.1
103.8
94.4
97.7
100.4
99.3
91.1
95.8
98.9
91.4
97.2
101.7
93.8
97.2
104 .3
101.3
104.0
93.5
99.3
99.0
98.5
90.0
98.0
96.9
92.9
101 . 3
92 .(5
100 . 1
102 . 5
100 . 2
102 . 6
93 . 8
100 a
98 . 4
97 . 0
91 . 3
98 . 7
95 . 0
95.1
100 • 5
94
104 , 0
99 , 2
101 • i
99 * 2
94 • a
99 , 8
98 . 4
9fi . 6
94 . 3
97
94
9(i . 5
97 . 2
98 , 6
101 . 6
101 . 9
100 . 8
102 . 2
100 . 3
94 . 9
97 .5
101 a
101 .0
92 . 0
95 . 6
96 a
98 . 0
98 . 8
96 . 1
94 . 2
90 . 3
97.3
99.2
102.1
101.0
101.1
102.0
100.4
95.9
98.6
101.1
9 9.B
91 a
97.0
96.9
98.7
99.1
96.3
94.5
89.3
96.8
97.4
100.2
102.9
99.8
100.9
102.1
98.3
96.5
99.2
97 a
98 . 4
100 . 1
103 .0
99 . 4
101 . 2
102 a
96 . 3
96 . 8
99 . 3
101 . 3
98 . 4
91 . 9
96 . 2
97 . 2
98 . 3
96 . 2
89 .4
94 . 5
97 . 3
98 . 9
100 a
102 . 6
100 . 1
101 . 3
101 . 4
96 . 4
96 , 2
99 .a
100 . 6
97 , 2
94 . 4
9S . S
96 . 6
97 . 7
96 . 3
92 3
93 3
92 . 8
93 . 9
96 a
94 .0
96 a
93 a
97 . 2
98 .4
96 . 3
93 . 0
97 . 8
97 . 2
94 a
96 . 7
97 .3
99 0
100 . 2
101 . 2
96 . 0
102 . 3
106 . 3
105 6
104 . 6
109 5
113 . 0
93 .0
99.2
90.3
95.5
96.6
95.2
Nov.
100.0
93.3
103.5
99.3
104.5
9(5.4
95.9
100.4
100.0
99
93
102
100
104
94
II Q
9.13. COMPOSITE IN ?ex OF MARGINAL EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS'
(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949...
1950...
195J
1952. . .
1953...
1954. . .
1955...
1956. . .
1957. . .
1958...
1959. . .
1960. . .
1961...
1962, . .
196 3 . , .
1964. . .
1965. . .
1966...
1967...
19 6 8 . . .
1969. . ,
1970...
1971. . .
1972. . .
1973. , ,
1974.. .
1973.. .
1976. . .
1977. . .
1978...
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981. . .
1982.. .
102 . 6
94
96
a. 8
104
101
104
93
98
99
98
90
97
.3
98
.3
a. 5
.4
.8
.6
.7
.2
.6
92 .6
96 .9
96 .4
96 .9
100 , 0
102
101 . 3
100 . 0
102 . 1
99 . 2
96 . 5
a
98 .9
101
.1
.0
90 . 0
97 . 9
95 . 9
97 . 6
9B . 5
96 . 3
9 4 .2
99
101.3
92.9
98.1
104.(5
101.1
103.8
93 .4
100.1
98,7
98.5
89.4
98.9
95 a
101.3
94 .4
96.6
104 a
101.5
104.0
93.5
99.4
98.4
98.5
89.8
97.9
97.1
91.9
97.2
96.9
97. 6
100.0
102.7
99.4
101.2
101.6
98.3
96.5
99.2
102.4
98.7
B9.7
98.1
96.6
97.2
98.4
96.4
94.1
94.2
97a
97.6
ioo.a
103.3
98.&
101.4
102.3
97.4
96.5
99.5
101.9
98.8
90.1
97.6
98.0
98.3
98.0
94.5
94.1
914.
101.4
92.0
99.1
103.6
99. S
103.7
93.0
100.3
99.5
97.3
89.7
99.0
95.1
94.9
98.0
96.7
98.6
99.7
10 3-5
98.9
100,4
10 2 „ 4
'JfKO
96.7
99,8
101.7
97.9
91.7
96a
97,3
99.0
94.6
90.3
94.9
100.6
92.4
100.4
10 2.5
100.8
102.3
93.8
100.6
97.5
96.4
91.3
98.9
95.2
94.9
97.3
97.2
98.3
100.3
103.1
99.5
101.6
102.0
96.3
96.7
99.4
101.3
99.1
91.4
96.5
97.1
98.3
97.3
88.3
94.2
101.9
93.4
100.9
101.5
100.1
101.9
94.7
99.4
98.2
97.3
92.8
98.1
94.7
95.6
96.9
97.5
98.4
100.4
102.5
99.9
10.1.5
102.0
96.6
97.0
98.7
101.0
98.2
92.5
96.1
97.2
97.8
96.7
89.6
94.5
101.5
93.7
102.8
99.8
96.3
100.9
95.3
99.1
97.8
96.7
93.7
97.5
94.4
95.4
97.1
97.6
98.8
100.2
102.0
99.7
101.3
101.5
97.7
96.9
98.8
100.5
98.1
94.5
96.1
96.7
97.4
96.4
91.7
95.0
100.2
93.5
105.5
98.7
102.6
99.4
94.4
99.5
98.6
95.9
94.4
97.0
93.9
96.5
96.3
96.9
99.4
99.6
102.8
100.3
101.1
101.2
96.3
95.7
100.2
100.3
97.0
94.5
95.5
96.2
97.3
96.0
92.2
93.6
99.8
95.1
103.8
99.2
104.3
97.4
94.6
100.7
98.7
94.1
94.8
96.8
94.0
94.7
97.0
97.4
98.4
100.5
103.0
100.4
101.6
101.4
95.2
95.9
100.3
101.1
96.5
94.3
95.0
97.0
98.5
96.4
92.9
91.4
AVERAGR K
93.2
95.3
94.6
93.2
97.1
96.1
97.6
913.6
101.1
102.5
100.2
102a
100.9
94.7
9Q.9
103.5
101.1
94.9
93.0
95a
97.4
9S.7
96.fi
93.6
90.5
97
.0
.5
.2
.4
.2
.4
.6
.0
.1
.2
.9
.9
101
99
92
95
94
92 . 7
97 , 4
96
101.9
98.8
89.9
97.9
96.8
97.7
98.3
95.7
94.1
100 . 3
90 . 7
9 4 .6
©9.0
90.3
95.6
97 .9
§6.5
95.7
96.8
92.6
99.9
98.1
95.3
91.3
98.2
97.2
94.0
97.2
97.3
99.9
100.2
101.8
97.2
104.0
108.5
10 5.1
104.9
110.3
113.0
9 4 .4
96 . 6
92 . 9
98 .5
98 a
95 2
92 5
97 . 6
97 . 5
93 .6
96 a
97 i
99 3
100 5
102 2
97 5
102 a
107 9
105 1
105 0
110 3
112 7
98
106 7
110 5
113 6
114 1
113 3
no
7
90.;;
89.9
96.3
95.5
95.5
96.2
92 a.
99.6
97.9
95.4
91.8
99.«
95.8
94.2
96.7
97.fi
99.3
100.4
102.2
9 7.9
10 5.4
107.5
104.1
106.4
110.0
112 .6
108.0
97 .13
106.(5
111.9
115. 0
116.9
109.5
109.8
97.9
106.5
111.2
1.14.8
114.6
111.8
109.3
915.
99.6
97.2
94.6
94,7
96.1
92.8
99.3
98.3
94,4
92,2
98.8
96,7
94 t 6
97.3
97,5
99,3
99.8
101.1
98 a
103.2
108.5
104.1
106.4
111.2
111.5
107.6
100,2
10 6.5
111.7
115.6
115.0
107.1
110.5
98.0
89.8
97.6
96.2
94.8
95.6
93.2
99.2
97.9
94.6
93.4
98.9
96.5
94.7
96.5
98.5
100.4
100a
100.3
99.0
102.5
107.5
104.1
107.6
111.2
111.8
107.1
101 .4
106.0
112.5
115.2
115.1
106.9
109.3
98.2
90.2
97.9
94.2
95.6
93.9
93.9
99.3
97.4
94.8
94 .4
98.4
95.7
95.4
96.3
98. 2
99.8
100.5
99.3
100.3
103.0
107.2
103.4
108.7
110.8
112.1
106.5
103 . 3
107.6
113.5
116.1
114.5
108.7
107.3
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968 .
1969 .
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1.978...
1979.. .
1980...
1981. , .
1982..,
91
89
92
103
93
96
89
97
97
9
0
9
0
5
3
9
1
%
8
94.
91 .
98 1
96
93 3
98 8
97. 7
99. 3
102. I
103. 1
100. 5
101. 9
103. 9
100. %
99.
101.
107.
109.
92.
5
8
6
4
9
101. 2
102. %
104. 8
107. 9
100. n
100. '*
91 .7
88.4
93.9
102.9
92.5
96.6
90.7
93.6
99.1
98.4
99.0
102.4
104.7
100.6
102.0
103.8
100 .1
100.6
102.4
109.0
108.8
92.2
1(02.0
104.0
106.5
108.2
10 0 . 5
100.5
93.5
91.4
99! 3
94.7
98.6
98.3
99. 5
101,3
105. s
99.2
101.3
103. 7
99.1
101.2
10 3.0
HO.4
107.7
92.0
10.3.1
104.6
107.0
108.4
10O.S
100.7
'M . 5
1 0 'A . 6
100 . 3
101 . 2
l
)b
a
ma
100 . 6
.5
m)
9 2 .2
9S , 7
9d
.4
9':> , 2
.3
9? .4
.8
10 I .6
10I .8
a
a
a
100.7
is);? a
100 . 5
9[J .2
9 7 .7
r '*•"
'! •'
Li) I , 1
111'
1
.
1.'.
M4
,.
.
<!
M'
,',
'</
..
«l
.
M-r
.1
'•'
.
11
.
'
•){ ,
lint.
ID. 1
."
l i f t .
,
llS
.
tin .
• « > » .
Ml .
101). 9
100 . 6
*h ,
§2 , 7
?3 !» . 9
» t .
.0
.0
9H . 9
*Sti . 3
94
90 . 0
)
91)
' ,
*H
.
U> .
a
) 1 ,
warn
95.1
90.4
99.2
93.7
96.0
93.8
94.7
99.0
96.4
94.4
96.2
97.8
95.5
95.9
96.8
98.4
99.8
100.4
98.2
101.5
105.4
106.7
103.2
108.6
1H.7
111.0
105.2
104 .6
107.5
114.2
114.9
114.2
110.8
107.0
93.9
92.7
97 .0
94.9
98.1
93.4
95.5
99.2
96.0
93.6
96.8
97.9
95.3
95.2
97.1
99.0
100.3
100.6
97.5
101.5
105.9
106.7
103.7
108.6
113.4
109.8
103.3
104 .2
109.3
113.7
115.4
115.3
111.8
106.3
94.3
92.6
96.1
93.8
96.5
94.2
96.7
98 .5
96.2
93.5
96.8
97.3
95.0
95.8
96.9
99.2
100.3
100.8
97.0
101.5
107.9
106.4
103.8
108.6
113.4
108.8
101.1
104.?,
109.fi
114.2
117.0
113.7
111.1
104.3
109 .4
99 7
104 5
110 7
114 3
116
113
111
105
2
2
2
4
9<i.5
97.9
9fi . 6
93.1
97.2
98.3
95.8
92.4
96.8
97.9
94.1
96 .3
97.4
99.6
100.2
101.7
9(5.2
102.6
107.3
105.8
105.9
110.2
113.6
107.4
100.8
105.1
96.5
92.5
99.3
98.0
95.3
91.9
98.5
96.8
93.9
96.7
97.3
99.5
100.4
102.1
97.5
104.1
108.0
104.8
105.4
110.5
112.8
107.6
98.0
111.8
115.0
113.4
111.4
105.1
111.2
114.5
115.2
111.5
109.9
92.3
87 a
94,9
100,0
93.0
96.4
91.4
'39.1
9 7.1
93.4
91.4
100. 2
96.2
96.7
99.6
100.2
102.0
105.1
98.7
100.7
103.9
99.3
101.7
102.7
110.6
lO6.fi
93,6
104 . 2
104 ,6
101 . 2
10 7 . 8
99,2
101 , 8
92.1
86.6
96.8
97.8
92.S
95.4
92.0
98 .a
95.9
93.8
92 .?
99.5
97.1
96.1
99 .3
100.5
101.8
104.2
98.3
100.9
103.4
101.0
101.0
102.9
110.5
105,6
94 .9
104.3
104.2
107.2
107.5
97.2
102.5
93.2
86.4
97.5
96.5
94.9
95.0
92.6
98.8
95.5
93.9
93.3
98.8
89.2
92.0
100.5
93.7
95.2
89.6
96.6
93.2
95.4
91.7
88.4
93.7
102.8
92.9
96.6
90.5
98 . 6
89 . 9
97 . 6
95 . 0
95 .0
95 . 2
93 . 3
99 . 3
97 . 9
94 . 6
93 . 3
98 . 7
96 . 3
94.9
96 .7
98 . 1
99 . 8
100 a
100 . 2
99 a
102 . 9
107 . 7
103 .9
107 . 6
111 a
111 . 8
107 . 1
101 . 6
106 . 7
112 6
115.6
114 q
107 6
109 0
95 , 2
90 .9
98 ,6
94 a
96 , 6
94.0
94 0 9
99 , 1
96 5
94 c
96 0
9B 0
9S . 6
95 .6
9& . 8
99 5
9
9')
100 6
98 . 3
101 . 1
10 5
10 6 ?
10 3 4
108 5
113.3
11(3 . 7
105
100 4
1)1 4
US 3
1] 4 6
9
n.e
106
I)
AVEKAGR !•(
97.4
95.6
98.5
99.9
101.4
103.5
98.8
100.9
103.0
101.2
99.7
103.3
109.7
104.4
95.7
104.5
103.7
107.2
106.2
95.9
102.6
93.7
88 .1
102.1
95.1
95.7
94 .4
92.5
99.8
96.6
94.1
98a
94.3
96.9
96.3
97.7
100.5
101.3
103. 3
99.5
100.8
102.7
99.5
99.3
103.5
109.1
103.5
96.7
104.4
103.1
105.8
104.6
96 .9
102.6
93.4
91.1
105.0
93.4
95.3
92.7
92.8
100.0
96.6
93.8
96.1
97.6
94.7
97.4
95.8
97.9
100.8
101.3
103.0
100.6
99.8
102.7
99.0
99.5
104.0
108.9
102.6
98,0
104.1
103.6
106.4
103.7
98.7
102.1
92.4
93.1
104.4
93.2
95.5
90.7
93.9
99.7
96.4
93.6
97.4
98.2
94 . 9
97.7
97.4
98.2
102.4
100.9
102.0
100.6
100.7
103.0
99a
100.2
104.6
109.0
100.2
100.1
103.3
104.7
106.4
102.4
101.0
101.2
91.4
93.3
103.9
94.4
95.0
89.6
95.0
99.3
96.3
93.2
97.6
98.0
9 4,5
57 . 8
97.7
9 8,4
1C2.0
100.7
101.6
ICO.7
102.1
103.1
9 7.9
100.9
105.8
1D9..3
98.4
101.0
1CU . 8
105.0
107.1
101.5
102.2
99.8
90 6
93 2
«u , 4
9.3 . 7
96 . 7
94 . 0
96 . 4
f) \ . 5
97 .0
93 . 4
96 a
93 . 0
97 a
97 . 5
94 .4
96 . 3
9? . 2
9 9.3
100 .2
101 .2
96 . 4
10 2
a
107 . 2
10'j . 9
104 . 8
109 . 4
11.1 . 3
108
100 !•>
110 . 2
114 . 4
116
111
111
104
1
4
2
9
)I. '
97 . 1
!
M . ••:
4 :J . :
'•> 4 . •'
* 4. 1
<•>•».
97.1
'i 4 . 1
94 . u
93,;i
9 3 . .• •
9 : j „ ?.
9 6 . JS
9;i. ;
t) I ) , 11
K M ) . (1
99.)
100.0
104,'t
U)?, .
1.04, .1
107. 1 '
111, B
111. 0
10 5, ,
10BJ1
U2. ( )
US.'I
1 1 4 , 'i
no.
i
LO7.7
101
7
8
9
3
93
94
89
95 9
98
96
91
9
1
9
98
97 2
94 2
97 3
97 7
98. 5
102. 2
101. 5
101. 2
100. 9
103. 6
102. 3
97. 6
101. 0
106. 2
109. 7
96. 5
100 . 4
101. 9
104. 1
107. 5
100. 9
102. 1
98.
7
91.1
97.3
93.9
98.2
97.3
98.U
102.1
102.5
101.0
101,6
103.3
101.9
98 .4
101 a
106 , 9
109.4
94.1
99.4
102.2
104 . 5
107.8
100.7
101.7
97 .8
§';
1
90 4
92 8
102.0
94 0
9fj 0
B") 5
9'i 8
9
9 *"!
2
7
9fj
e5
9S
97.9
97.2
94.2
99.2
99 5
m
9 5.1
93.9
98.8
98.3
99.3
102,1
104.5
100.1
101.7
103.8
99.9
100.4
93 5
9
96
96 1
9 ft
102.4
109.0
108.6
92.4
10 2.1
103.7
106.1
108.2
100.6
100.6
5
7
4
1
5
6
0
99 1
100 2
101 7
104. 3
98. 6
100. 3
103. 4
100. 5
100. 3
10 3. 0
no.
KK1OO
9,11 2
92
86
96
98
93
95
92
98
96
93
'This, series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user. This series contains revisions beginning with 1948.
102
w ,6
a
COMPOSITU INDEX OF INVENTORY INVESTMENT' AND PURCHASING3
91.5
87.8
94.2
102.S
92.7
97. 0
91.0
98.9
9 7 .0
97.6
97.1
i)4 m 4
91.5
99.5
m
WE RAGE V )R {
96.7
89.5
99.5
93.7
95.7
94.7
94.6
99.1
97.0
94.1
94 .9
98.3
96.0
95.7
96.6
98.0
99.6
100.7
99.3
100.4
104.8
106.7
103.3
108.4
111.8
111.3
107.0
104 .6
108.3
112.4
115.6
114.4
110.2
107.1
(1967 = 100)
1948...
1949...
1950..,
1951...
1952. . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956..,
1957.,.
1958...
1959...
1960.
1961...
196 2 , , .
1963. . .
Annual
COMPOS ITi-i INDEX OF CAPITAL ] INVESTMENT COMMITMENTS2
(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949. . .
1950.. .
1951...
1952...
1953.. .
1954 . . .
1955...
1956...
1957. . .
1958, , .
1959. . .
I960.. .
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970., .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975,..
1976..,
1977.,.
1978. . .
1979. . .
1980...
1981...
1982...
IV
III Q
Dec.
Oct.
3
10 5. 5
94 . 7
10 4. 3
104. 2
107. 2
107. 2
9 7 .4
10 2 . 3
9C: B
8
9<! 9
10-i
ft
91!
i
0
9 ? (5
10 J .
10 3 .
10 V,.
lOJt.
io;t.
ntf
B
2
•",
t
10'}.
lO'l.
10«t. 2
IR.'i. h
m\. q
10s. H
Vf.i
44 . *
< U . i'i
9 "A . '-5
it-. .;l
'?*; . J
l
97
97 5
94
97
9?
98
Id?
2
9
9 4,4
6
5
1
161 6
if);i. i?
q 9. 7
7
104. n
10 -). fi
XQ'A'* 1
9 jj
98
92.0
fl*3.7
9 l J . -)
101. 3
101 I
1G3, 0
10 2 4
9H . 0
101 *0
106. 3
IR9 . 5
3
10 0 3
' C? 0
104.
107. 'i
:tu, 0
102. 0
98. 8
ion!?
uu.s
1.0 i . 2
10 n. }
101 . j
1.0 i a
10H, 3
UH.9
10 M . \
10 \\l
10 •) a
10 h . 7
9 'i. 7
LOU.}
(i-FBUUARV
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug- Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
69.7
67.2
73.7
74.1
73.0
67.0
76.4
83.0
79.0
76.2
81.8
83.7
79.9
87 .6
88.9
92.4
96.3
102.9
99.3
100.9
100.6
92.4
87.2
94.3
99.6
94.5
81.6
95.2
95.2
98.0
99.2
93.4
96.2
97.1
69.3
67.7
7 2.3
74^0
73.3
67.8
77.9
82.3
79.4
75.3
82.7
84.3
80.0
88 .4
89.3
93.4
97.4
102.8
98.8
100.9
100.4
90.6
89.4
95.4
100.0
92.3
81.5
95.4
96.4
97.4
98.6
94.0
97.1
96.2
6 6.6
68.5
68.6
70.9
7 3,4
72.8
69.4
80.0
80.9
79.3
74.3
84.4
83.8
81.1
88.9
89.7
95.3
100.0
102.5
98.9
99.4
98.9
88.8
92.5
96.4
99.5
90.4
85.3
97.5
97.4
96.0
97.7
94.3
98.7
69.2
67.8
70.6
71.7
72.1
71.2
71 .4
81.7
80.2
79.5
75.4
86.4
81.9
84.2
86.7
91.7
96.0
100.7
100.5
99.6
100.9
97.4
88.3
93.7
97.0
96.2
87.6
90.8
96.7
99.6
99.0
96.6
92.9
98.4
60.4
62.6
62.6
62.8
65.8
63.5
67.7
69.8
68.1
66.1
71.3
71.3
73.8
78.4
82.9
88.6
92.3
96.8
95.0
102.5
106.1
10.1.0
102.8
112.1
123.6
119.3
112.1
118.2
126.3
132.8
130.9
123.9
122.6
122.2
60.8
63.0
63.0
63.5
65.5
62,9
68.0
69.5
68.0
66.2
71.7
70.7
73.3
79.2
83.9
88.2
92.7
97.0
95,7
102.8
,106.5
101.2
103.7
112.7
124.7
118.4
110.5
119.0
127.6
132.9
131.0
122.2
121.7
122.2
63.2
60.8
63.9
61.5
63.9
65.7
6 3.8
68.7
69.4
68.3
66.3
72.3
71.4
74.5
80.1
85.2
88.1
93.3
97.2
9 7.1
102.8
105.0
99.7
106.5
115.8
125.9
119.0
111.0
120.0
129.2
132.4
130.4
122.3
122.2
62.2
61.5
65.3
60.8
63.5
66.2
64.1
69.6
68.1
68.2
67.6
72.8
71.9
76.2
81.8
85.9
89.1
94.1
96.5
99.1
103.0
.103.0
99.8
109.5
117,8
123.5
118.8
114.3
123.2
130.8
133.2
131.7
119.3
123.3
916. COMPOSITE INDEX OF PROFITABILITY
(1967=100)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954.
..
1955...
1956. .,
1957..,
1958. ..
1959..,
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967. . .
1968. . .
1969. ..
1970..,
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974. . .
1975. ,.
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980. ..
1981. ..
1982.
..
66.6
68,3
63.6
70,3
73.3
72,8
69.5
80.4
80.5
7y, 2
73.9
67.2
68.2
69.1
70.7
7 2.9
72.5
70.0
80.6
81.0
79.1
74.4
68.5
68.0
69.8
71.3
72.4
71.6
70.8
81.3
80.8
79.2
74.7
71 .6
72 .0
71 .3
71 .5
81 .5
80 .0
79 .5
75 .4
84.4
80.5
88.5
89.6
94.6
99.1
103.0
98.8
100.3
99.5
89.5
91.2
96.1
100.2
91.4
83.2
97.0
97.0
96.2
98.4
94.5
98.2
84.1
80.8
89.3
89.6
95.5
100.4
102.9
98.8
99.0
99.0
88.0
93.0
96.4
99,7
89.9
85.3
97,9
97.2
95.4
97.4
95.1
98.8
83.0
8 2.1
88.9
90.0
95.7
100.5
101.7
99.1
99.0
98.1
82.4
83.4
88.1
91.2
95.9
XO0.7
101.6
99.4
100.4
97.9
89.1
93.8
97.0
97.3
88.7
88.8
97.1
98.8
97.9
97.2
92.5
98.7
81 .4
84 .5
86 .7
91 .9
96 .0
101 .0
100 .2
99 .7
101 .0
97 .8
.0
93 .5
96 .9
96 .0
87 .7
91 .0
96 .5
99 .6
99 .6
96 .4
92 .7
98 .1
93! 3
96.8
98.5
89.9
87.3
97.5
98.1
96,3
97.3
93.2
99.0
917.
1948. . .
1949...
1950...
1951. ..
1952...
1953. ..
1954.
..
1955. ..
1956...
1957.. .
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962.
. .
1963. ..
1964.
. .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969. ..
1970. ..
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975,
..
1976...
1977,,.
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981,
..
1982.
..
69 .5
67 .7
66.1
69.1
68.1
71.6
74.0
73.1
68.6
79.1
81.2
79.5
74.7
64.3
60.8
63.9
62.4
(S3.8
65.5
63.4
68.5
69.4
68.1
65.7
72.4
70.9
73.6
79.6
84.8
87,9
92,8
97.5
95.9
102.7
105.9
100.8
104.6
113.8
126.2
118.6
110.4
118.7
128.7
132.5
131.9
121.9
122.2
62.3
60.8
64.0
61,4
63.8
65.4
64,0
68.7
69.1
68,1
66.3
72. 3
71.6
74.5
80.0
85.3
88.4
93.3
9 7.1
97.0
102.8
105.0
99.6
106.6
115.8
126.6
119.1
110.8
120.6
129.2
131.9
129.9
122.5
122.1
62.9
60.9
63.9
60.7
64.0
66.3
64.0
68.9
69.6
68.8
66.8
72.3
71.8
75.5
80,8
85.4
88.1
93.9
97.0
98. 5
102.9
104.0
98.8
108 .3
117.7
124.8
119.4
111.8
120.8
129.7
132.9
129.5
122.4
122.2
81.8
84.7
85.4
92.1
96.0
100.4
99.8
99.6
101.3
96.5
73 .2
72 .0
70 .5
72 .8
83 .0
80 ,4
80 .0
76 .9
85 .3
81 .4
85 .0
86 .1
92 .0
96 .7
100 .6
99 ,4
100 .1
101 .2
95 .4
68.7
68.9
73.2
74.6
72.0
68,7
74.4
83.3
79.6
78.3
79.0
83.6
80.7
86.1
87.3
92.7
96.5
101.8
98.0
101.0
100.8
94.0
93.7
97.1
95.2
86. 3
92.7
96.4
100.4
99.6
96.3
93.5
98.4
94 .1
97 .2
94 .9
83 ,7
94 .0
96 .6
101 .2
99 .5
96 ,1
94 .1
98 .2
94 .3
97 .8
94 .2
81 .0
94 .1
96 .2
101 .5
100 .5
96 .4
94 .5
98 .5
94.9
98.0
94.6
80.1
94.1
96.3
100.3
100.6
95.7
95.0
96.9
69.7
68,1
73.7
74!s
72.2
67.9
75.3
82.4
79.3
77.0
80.5
83.6
79.9
86.6
87.4
92.6
96.5
102.5
98.2
101.2
100.8
93.2
87.7
94 .8
98.5
95.4
80.7
94.9
95.6
98.9
100.1
94.4
95.5
96.9
61.3
62.2
65.0
62.4
65.1
64 .6
66.1
70.4
67.8
67.5
69.8
73.4
74.1
77.3
81.7
87.5
91.7
96.5
94.3
102,0
105,4
100.2
103.0
112.2
121.2
120.8
114.4
117.5
124.4
132.1
130.8
129.3
123.4
122.9
60.7
62.9
63.1
62.6
65.5
63.9
66.9
69.8
67.6
66.8
70.5
72.2
73.9
77.6
82.3
88.2
91.8
96.4
94.5
102.4
105.8
100.6
102.6
111.1
123.1
120.3
112.4
117.5
125.4
132,5
130.5
126.7
122.8
121.7
68 .8
68 .8
72.2
72.0
• 70-6
72.0
82.2
79.8
79.7
76.1
COMPOSITE INDEX OF MONEY AND FINANCIAL FLOWS
(1967=100)
62.3
61.0
64.8
60.7
63.1
66.5
63.9
68.7
68.8
68.7
67.2
72.0
71.9
75.7
81.7
85.8
88. 5
94 .0
96.8
98.7
103.2
104.0
98.8
109.1
118.3
123.7
120.8
113.1
122.0
130.1
132.8
131.4
120.2
123.5
62 .7
62 .0
65 2
60 8
63 5
66 7
64 1
69 7
68 0
68 2
67 3
72 7
71 7
76 2
81 8
86 0
89 1
94 2
96 5
99 1
102 8
103 1
100 0
1
no
117 5
123 3
118 6
114 1
124 0
131 0
133 6
131 6
118 6
123 2
61.5
61.6
65.9
61.0
64.0
65.5
64.4
70.4
67.6
67.8
68.2
73.6
72.0
76.7
81.9
85.9
89.6
94.0
96.1
99.6
103.0
102.0
100.7
109.4
117.6
123.4
116.9
115.8
123.7
131.2
133.1
132.1
119.2
123.1
61 .8
61 .9
66 .6
61 .4
63 .8
65 .6
65 .3
70 .9
67 3
67 .6
68 6
74 1
72 5
76 9
81 5
86 2
90 6
94 8
95 1
100 2
103 7
100 6
100 7
109 9
118 1
123 5
117 1
117 5
123 0
130 9
131 7
.131 6
120 2
123 3
61 .5
62 .0
65 2
62 2
63 9
65 .5
64 3
70 8
67 3
67 4
69 0
74 4
73 4
77 2
81 6
86 6
91 0
96 0
94 2
101 3
104 5
100 0
102 0
111 7
120 2
122 5
115 4
117 8
123 8
132 2
131 1
130 3
122 7
123 8
NOTE:
123.8
121.9
134.6
115.3
119.7
103.6
.117.7
113.8
103.9
89.6
104.5
96.0
87.4
97.6
95.6
96.0
98.2
101.3
100.1
103.0
104.0
96.5
99.5
109.2
118.2
112.3
96.0
116.4
123.6
123.1
125.3
119.4
120.6
122.1
122.1
131.4
116.9
119.5
104.7
118.2
113.3
105.1
90.9
105.8
94.0
87.2
98.9
96.2
95.8
98.1
101.1
99.2
103.1
104.1
121.3
127.2
129.4
115.6
120.0
105.5
119.8
111.4
104.3
89.7
107.0
92.2
88.8
99.1
96.3
95.3
98.4
101.9
98.6
103.7
104.3
120.2
129.6
128.4
115.6
117.6
106.9
122.2
110.1
102.2
90.0
108.6
92.2
90.0
98.9
97.1
95.9
98.2
101.0
98.9
103.3
103.6
118. 2
132. 1
126. 8
114. 6
115. 0
107. 3
122. 6
107. 0
101. 2
94. 7
106. 8
90. 2
91. 7
98. 5
97. 2
97. 0
97 . 9
100. 4
98. 8
103. 6
102. 6
118.9
135.8
124.5
111.9
113.9
108.5
121.7
106.2
101.5
98 .1
103 .7
88 .7
94.0
97.4
97.0
96.3
98.4
100.7
98.8
104.1
102.0
117 4
142 1
121. 9
109, 6
114 1
108 5
122. 1
99 7
101 0
100 8
101 2
88. 4
94. 7
97. 5
96. 6
97. 7
99. 7
100. 3
99. 0
105. 0
102. 6
120. 2
146. 0
122. 3
115. 4
111. 9
109. 7
117. 2
105. 1
97. 3
102. 7
95. 4
88. 9
95. 9
97. 4
96. 1
97. 1
98. 8
100. 1
100. 5
104. 5
102. 4
99.7
109.8
118.4
111.9
96.3
118.4
123.9
123.9
124.8
117.7
122.0
100.5
110.7
118.4
112.5
95.3
119.7
125.6
124.7
127.3
113.7
123.7
101.8
111.4
116,3
110.4
98.4
120.9
125.7
128.1
122.5
109.7
123.6
102. 1
111. 5
116. 3
109. 9
101. 2
120. 5
126. 0
126. 9
124. 5
109. 9
120. 2
104.4
110.4
115.4
109.6
105.8
121.3
125.7
126.8
123.1
112.4
120.5
103. 4
Ill 8
114. 9
109. 5
107. 0
121. 4
126. 5
126. 9
123. 5
115. 6
120. 5
8
102. 1
113. 6
114 .1
108. 6
109 .7
121. 6
125. 6
127. 1
122. 4
117 .2
119. 5
These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.
Annual
123.2
139.2
121.1
118 .7
109.5
110.9
117.2
104.6
94.6
101.1
90.4
91.4
95.6
96.9
96,4
96.7
99.7
100.2
100.1
104.5
102.0
96.0
103.0
114.3
113.7
106.7
111.5
120.9
126.1
126.6
120.6
119.5
117.5
68.5
69.2
72.5
74.1
71.9
69.8
73.5
83.1
80.1
79.2
77.9
84 . 3
81.2
85.6
86.7
92.4
96.6
101.1
98.5
100. 5
100.9
94.8
8 7.6
94 .4
97.7
94.6
81.6
94.1
96.4
101.0
100.2
96.1
94.5
97.9
69.6
67.7
73,2
74.2
72.8
67.6
76,5
82.6
79.2
76.2
81.7
83.9
79.9
87.5
88 .5
92.8
96.7
102.7
98.8
101.0
100.6
92.1
88 .1
94 .8
99,4
94.1
81.3
95.2
95.7
98.1
99.3
93,9
96.3
96.7
68.5
68.3
71.2
72.7
72.6
70 .3
72.7
81.8
80.1
70 .5
77.3
84 .8
81.7
84 .6
87.7
91.7
96.1
101.1
100.1
100.0
100.5
95.8
88.2
93.9
97.6
96.1
85.2
91.3
96.6
99.0
98.6
96.1
94.5
97.9
AVERAGE FOR I'ERIOD
9 4 0 , RATIO, COINCIDENT COMPOSITE INDEX TO LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEX
(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949, . .
1950.. .
1951...
1952.. .
1953,..
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
1959. ..
1960. . .
1961. . .
1962...
1963...
1964 . ..
1965.. .
1966..,
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969. . .
1970. ..
1971. ..
1972.. .
1973...
1974. ..
1975. ..
1976. ..
1977.
. .
1978.. .
1979...
1980. ..
1981. . .
1982.
. .
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
68 .1
69 .8
72 .8
74 .4
71 .8
70 .3
73 .4
82 .9
80 .2
79 .3
77 .8
84 .1
81 .5
85 .8
86 .8
92 .5
96 .6
101 .0
98 .1
100 .5
100 .7
94 .9
69.5
67.7
III Q
61.5
62.0
65.6
62.0
64.3
65.2
65.2
70.7
67.5
67.5
69.1
74.0
73.3
77.1
81.6
86.8
91.1
95.8
94.5
101.2
104.5
100.3
101.9
111.3
119.8
122.3
115.6
117.6
123.7
131.7
131.2
130.4
122.1
123.3
AVERAGE
115.1
135.3
120.5
120.9
108,6
112.1
115.8
105.5
94.3
100.9
88.6
91.2
97,1
96.5
96.7
94.8
100.0
100.6
100.2
105.0
101.6
103^6
115.9
114.5
105.5
111.8
120.2
126.1
127.8
119.5
121.2
115.6
118.9
131.3
119.7
120.1
106.2
114.0
114.1
104.2
91.7
103.8
89.4
89.1
99.2
96.4
94.6
97.7
100.2
99.3
102.4
105.1
100.5
93.8
104 .7
117.2
115.1
102.1
113.6
122.2
125.9
126.7
118.7
121.0
.114 .9
119.8
136.0
116.8
119 .6
103.9
115.7
114.8
105.3
89.3
101.9
94.3
87.0
99.2
95.4
95.0
98. 8
100.8
99.3
103.7
104.4
100.2
96.9
105.9
118.8
113.4
97.3
114.2
123.2
126.2
126.9
119.0
118.8
1.13.3
122.4
123.7
131.8
115.9
119.7
104.6
118.6
112.8
104.4
90.1
105.8
9 4.1
87.8
98.5
96.0
95.7
98.2
101.4
99.3
103.3
104.1
96.4
99.9
109.9
118.3
112.2
95.9
118.2
124.4
123.9
125.8
116.9
122.1
119.1
132.5
126.6
114.0
115.5
107.6
122.2
107.8
101.6
94.3
106.4
90.4
91.9
98.3
97.1
96.4
98.2
100.7
98.8
103.7
102.7
96.8
102.8
Lll.l
L16 .0
L10.0
L01.8
120.9
25.8
27.3
23.4
L10.7
L21.4
60,6
62.8
62.9
63.0
65.6
63.4
67.5
69.7
67,9
66.4
71.2
71.4
73.7
78.4
83.0
88.3
92.3
96.7
95.1
102.6
106.1
100.9
103.0
112.0
123.8
119.3
111.7
118.2
126.4
132.7
130.8
124.3
122.4
122.0
61.9
61.8
64,4
61.8
64.3
65.2
65.2
69.7
68.2
67.6
68.S
72.6
72.6
76.6
81.6
86.5
90.1
95.0
95.8
100.0
104.1
102.3
101.1
109.8
119.3
122.7
116.3
US.3
123.4
131.1
131.9
129.2
121.5
122.7
FOR PERIOD
120.3
142.4
121.8
114.6
111.8
109.7
118.8
103.1
97.6
101.5
95.7
89.6
95.4
97.3
96.4
97.2
99.4
100.2
99.9
104.7
102.3
96.2
102.8
1.13.2
114.2
108.3
109.4
121.3
126.1
126.9
122.2
117.4
119.2
129.4
117.9
134.2
119.0
120.2
106.2
113.9
114.9
105.0
91.8
102,2
90.8
89.1
98.5
96.1
95.4
97.1
100.3
99.7
102.1
104 .8
100.8
94.9
104.7
117.3
114.3
101.8
113.2
121.9
126.1
127.1
119.1
120.3
114.6
133.5
119.9
133.2
124.8
116.2
1.13.3
109.0
118.6
107,2
98.9
97.0
99.6
90.8
93.4
97.S
96.2
96.6
99.0
100.5
100.0
104.1
102.5
96.1
102.6
112.9
115.7
108.1
105.1
120.6
125.6
126.3
122.6
116.3
119.3
(FEBRUARY 1983)
103
C. Historical Data foir Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar. Apr, May June
July
Aug. Sept.
Oct.
Nov,
Dec.
62.5
62,5
41.7
54.2
45.8
50.0
100.0
20.8
41,7
33.3
66,7
25.0
16.7
79.2
54.2
79,2
53,3
62.5
25.0
33.3
87.5
33.3
50 cO
6S.7
75.0
54.2
12.5
66.7
53,.3
70,3
70.8
US. 7
54.2
25.0
12.5
50.0
12.5
50.0
58.3
33.3
83.3
66.7
58.3
0.0
79.2
33.3
33.3
75.0
62.5
45.8
62.5
66,7
29.2
70.8
66.7
16.7
58.3
75.0
66.7
54.2
16.7
58.3
66.7
58.3
54.2
25.0
66.7
50.0
3 3.3
50.0
41.7
62.5
58. 3
70.8
50.5
37.5
33.3
29.2
4 5.8
66.7
37.5
70.8
41.7
62.5
58.3
83.3
41.7
87.5
62.5
41 .7
75.0
83.3
66.7
lfi.7
25.0
50.0
50.0
54.2
50.0
41.7
41.7
29.2
8.3
91.7
45,8
66.7
83.3
33.3
91.7
50.0
45.8
8.3
91.7
25.0
33.3
83.3
87.5
66 .7
83.3
100.0
25.0
91.7
91, .7
18.2
56.3
100,0
91,7
25.0
0.0
9], .7
41.7
66,7
58.3
20,8
75,0
8.3
8.3
100.0
16.7
66.7
83.3
41.7
100.0
33.3
25.0
8,3
83.3
25.0
33.3
100.0
79.2
91.7
75.0
83.3
33.3
83.3
91.7
8.3
83.3
91.7
91.7
20.8
8.3
91.7
66.7
58.3
54.2
20.8
58.3
8.3
16.7
100.0
50.0
75.0
58.3
50.0
100.0
29,2
33.3
20.8
91.7
8.3
37.5
95.8
75.0
70.8
62.5
83,3
45.8
70.8
75.0
0.0
100.0
91.7
87.5
16.7
8.3
100.0
66.7
79.2
62.5
8.3
50.0
25.0
75.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
62.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
0.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
0.0
25.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
25,0
100.0
37,5
75.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0 .0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100 .0
0,0
950. DIFFUSION INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948. . .
1949, ..
1950.. ,
1951., .
1952. . .
1953,, .
1954.,.
1955...
1956...
1957,..
1958.. .
1959...
I960,..
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963. ..
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970. ..
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977.. ,
1978. ..
1979.,.
1980. . ,
1981...
1982...
29.2
83.3
50.0
58.3
50.0
S8.3
11.1
45.8
16.7
7s!o
29.2
62.5
41,7
62.5
66.7
83.3
79,2
62.5
45.8
75.0
13.6
66.7
79.2
75.0
41.7
25.0
83.3
58.3
25.0
66.7
58.3
8,3
70.0
33.3
54.2
50.0
50.0
66.7
50.0
66.7
50.0
50.0
58.3
87.5
8.3
87.5
50.0
66.7
45.8
58.3
66.7
54.2
41.7
20.a
16.7
66.7
79.2
41.7
41.7
41.7
66.7
66.7
75.0
79.2
33.3
58.3
20.0
37.5
83.3
54.2
54.2
50.0
75.0
87.
25,
37,5
29.2
75.0
37.5
58.3
87.5
66.7
58.3
70.8
66.7
41.7
58.3
41.7
18.2
66.7
79.2
75.0
41.7
33.3
58.3
75.0
62.5
41.7
25.0
33.3
950.
1948..
1949. .
1950..
1951. .
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
19 5 8 . .
1959..
I960..
1961. .
1962.,
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967. .
1968. .
1969..
1970..
1971. .
1972..
1973. .
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977,.
1978..
1979..
1980. .
1981..
1982..
?A\
)
95. f 3
41. 1
58. 3
54. 2
58. i
q\ , 7
58. 3
12. >
33. 3
91. 1
29. 2
54. I
66. 7
7S.( D
83. I
62. i
83. 3
33. 3
70. 3
75. 3
8. 3
100. )
1O0. 3
75. 3
16. 7
33. 3
83. 3
91. 7
83. 3
13, }
H. 3
75. )
30.0
58.3
75.0
29.2
70.8
25.0
83.3
50.0
16.7
58.3
83.3
62.5
54.2
79.2
16.7
66.7
83.3
75.0
12.5
66.7
54.2
29,2
75.0
50.0
33.3
50,0
25.0
8 3,3
54.2
62.5
41.7
45.8
25.0
41.7
54.2
41,7
58.3
16.7
91.7
16.7
91.7
62.5
33.3
66.7
87.5
37.5
62.5
79.2
25.0
45.8
45.8
37.5
20.8
79.2
66.7
37.5
58.3
41.7
75.0
33.3
25.0
83.3
62.5
83.3
50.0
25.0
50.0
25.0
37.5
75.0
75.0
25.0
50.0
41.7
79.2
62.5
41.7
33.3
91.7
29.2
54.2
66.7
87.5
45.8
70.8
41.7
25.0
75.0
66.7
25.0
54.2
50.0
58.3
41.7
45,8
83.3
66.7
25.0
29.2
29.2
79.2
33.3
8.3
75.0
66.7
45.8
50.
37.5
58.3
54.2
37.5
41.7
75.0
58.3
33.3
83.3
79.2
50.0
75.0
50.0
33.3
100.0
45.8
37.5
41,7
50.0
79.2
20.8
12.5
41.7
50.0
83.3
58.3
16,7
83.3
41.7
16.7
91.7
41.7
66.7
75.0
12.5
79.2
54.2
41.7
37.5
91.7
41.7
66.7
50.0
75.0
83.3
75.0
50.0
16.7
58.3
87.5
58.3
70.8
66.7
70.8
41.7
25.0
66.7
50.0
54.2
58. 3
58. 3
91 7
8.3
AVERAGK FOR
33.3
73.6
51.4
54.2
55,6
61.1
75.6
40.3
34.7
48.6
79.2
25.0
69.4
59.7
65.3
56.9
70.8
70.9
52.8
48 .6
45,8
16.2
66.7
79.2
63.9
41.7
33.3
69.4
66.7
54.2
62.5
38.9
33.3
49.7
41.7
73.6
29.2
63.9
29,2
86.1
52.8
36.1
50.0
73.6
54.2
58.3
80.6
30.6
59.7
72.2
52.8
26.4
65.3
51.4
44.5
52.8
50.0
56.9
41.7
25.0
87.5
61.1
66.7
48.6
33.3
29.2
55.6
22.2
98.6
37.5
61.1
37.5
68.1
85.6
36.1
11.1
54.2
86.1
29.2
79.2
43.1
83.3
83.3
63.9
65.3
44.4
61.1
48.6
16.7
93.1
91.7
69.4
16.7
50.0
90.3
88.9
84.7
30.5
13.9
62.5
36.7
58.3
84.7
19.5
80.6
13.9
83.3
82.0
23.6
27.8
97.2
50.0
30.6
94.5
38.9
80.6
83.3
45.8
25.0
80.6
63.9
33.3
25,5
68.1
83.3
2fi.4
15.3
97.2
72.2
70.8
62.5
22.2
30.5
45.8
8.3
75.0
66.7
75.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
54.2
62.5
4.2
91.7
41.7
62.5
70.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
100.0
66.7
66.7
91.7
45.8
79.2
91.7
91.7
45.8
16.7
100.0
95.8
75.0
75.0
45.8
B7.5
75,0
20.8
100.0
54.2
54.2
62.5
50.0
91.7
66.7
33.3
58.3
100.0
41.7
87.5
70.8
91.7
91.7
91.7
83.3
75.0
91.7
75.0
2*3.2
87.5
91.7
66.7
66.7
79.2
83.3
95.8
79.2
5U.3
12.5
66.7
DIFFUSION INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
• (PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)
14.3
16,7
100.0
25.0
66.7
25.0
79.2
81.8
25.0
12.5
79.2
83.3
16.7
91.7
33.3
83,3
83.3
58.3
45.8
58.3
50.0
25.0
25.0
79,2
83.3
75.0
25.0
66.7
87,5
83.3
83.3
33.3
16.7
58.3
14.3
25.0
100.0
45.8
58.3
33.3
66.7
83.3
25.0
8.3
50.0
83.3
41.7
91,7
29.2
91,7
83.3
70.8
66.7
41.7
62.5
45.8
16.7
100.0
91.7
58.3
8.3
50.0
100.0
91.7
87.5
25.0
1(5.7
54.2
65.0
25.0
87-5
41.7
29.2
45.8
83,3
45.8
58,3
2$ g 0
50,0
(52,5
58.3
83,3
50.0
66.7
87.5
45.8
4 5.9
50.0
33.3
66.7
25.0
r>8.3
6 2.5
41.7
25.0
95.8
66 . 7
:S4,2
!>4.2
29.2
12.5
100,0
40.0
25.0
95.3
16.7
75.9
16.7
91.7
91.7
25.0
25.0
91.7
75,0
16.7
91.7
50.0
91.7
83.3
41.7
37.5
66.7
66.7
33.3
18.2
70.8
8 3.3
4 5.8
29.2
91.7
83.3
75.0
83.3
25.0
8.3
4 5.8
50.0
58.3
83.3
16.7
66.7
16.7
70.8
87.5
33.3
3 3.3
100.0
45.8
33.3
100.0
29.2
75.0
8 3.3
45.8
20.8
83.11
54.2
25.0
25.0
66.7
83.3
16.7
8.3
100.0
66.7
75.0
62.5
16.7
33.3
58.3
20.0
91.7
75.0
25.0
100.0
8.3
87.5
66.7
12.5
25.0
100.0
29,2
41.7
91.7
37.5
75.0
83.3
50.0
16.7
91.7
70.8
41.7
33.3
66.7
83.3
16.7
8.3
100.0
66.7
62.S
41.7
2S.0
50.0
33,3
30.0
83.3
75.0
25.0
75.0
8.3
91.7
58.3
8.3
25.0
100.0
25.0
41.7
91,7
54.2
83.3
66.7
75.0
0.0
100.0
87.5
8.3
33.3
50.0
87.5
20.8
8.3
91.7
54.2
75.0
41.7
25.0
83.3
8.3
16.7
10O.0
66.7
33.3
83.3
8.3
100.0
66.7
50.0
0.0
100.0
8.3
33.3
91.7
75.0
79.2
70.8
66.7
4.2
100.0
91.7
0.0
33.3
75.0
91.7
20.8
0.0
87.5
62.5
62.5
58.3
16.7
95.8
16.7
8.3
100.0
66.7
41.7
75.0
25.0
100.0
58.3
33.3
0.0
100.0
25.0
33.3
91.7
70.8
70.8
91.7
83.3
8.3
100.0
91.7
8.3
50.0
75.0
91.7
20.8
0.0
83.3
66.7
66.7
41.7
25.0
95.8
8.3
NOTE:
0.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
25,0
100.0
50.0
25.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
6 2.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
75.0
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
100,0
8 7.5
25.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
0.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
25.0
37.5
87.5
10O.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
7 5.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
12.5
87.5
75.0
25.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
0,0
100.0
62,5
62.5
0.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
81,5
100.0
75.0
62.5
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
75.0
50.0
0.0
100,0
62.5
50,0
75.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
75,0
62.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
73.0
75.6
75.0
75.0
23.0
100,0
100.0
50.0
37,5
62.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.9
o.o
50.0
75.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
62.5
62.5
50,0
100.0
25.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
37,5
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
75.0
87.5
100.0
75.0
87.5
62.5
87.5
0.0
50.0
These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.
104
100.0
37.5
100.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
37.5
100.0
62.5
0.0
100.0
12.5
0.0
62.5
37.5
100.0
0.0
62.5
100.0
37.5
0.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
1O0.0
100.0
75.0
75,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
62.5
87.5
50.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
87.5
50.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
50.0
lqo.o
0.0
25.0
50.0
100,0
62,5
75.0
0.0
0.0
10O.O
100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
37.5
100.0
37.5
12.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
75,0
25.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
87.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
87.5
37.5
87,5
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
37.5
20,9
80.6
61 ,,1
45.8
50.3
30.6
72 = 2
57.0
40.3
37 ,,5
86., \
4 3., 1
51,4
66,7
80,6
59.7
73,6
47.2
25.0
77.8
66.7
40.3
55.6
55.fi
69.4
34,7
27.8
63.9
55.6
54.2
48.6
34.7
84.7
27.3
36.1
54.2
32.0
55.6
54 .1
51.4
79.3
41.7
44.4
20.8
63.9
41.7
29.2
75.0
52.8
62.5
5(J ,7
70.8
32.0
63.9
72.2
30.6
61.1
75.0
69.5
41.7
18.1
58.3
58.3
61.1
58.3
27.8
54.2
34.7
52.1
60,1
4 5.*
57..:
41. 1
74, t
56.it
40.3
3'S.J)
sa.i
S4. >
41.13
7 2.'»
55.;*
61.:<
«!>,*»
60.4
IB. 6
64.'}
•ifl.7
40.3
46.4
61. H
6H. H
4 S.'»
M.",
<> 0 , H
61 .'.,
inV. ,2
SI/'
:»7.a
AVERAGE FOR PERI Oil
DIFFUSION INDEX OP 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR COMPONENTS
{PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955. . .
1956. . .
1957...
1958. . .
1959. . .
I960...
1961.. .
1962.. .
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965...
1966., .
1967. . .
1968. . .
1969.,.
1970. . .
1971. . .
1972. . .
1973. . ,
1974.. .
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980,. .
1981. . .
1982...
Annual
I Q
18.3
94.4
69.S
33.1
77.8
13.9
97*2
eia
30, 5
8,3
100,0
19 4 4
36 a
91,7
6fi,7
77,8
76,4
75,0
4,2
100,0
90«3
5.5
38 o 9
66,7
90 „ 3
20,8
?.»n
87,,5
61.1
68 ,,1
47,2
22.2
91.6
11.1
11.1
97.2
37.5
69.5
75.0
41.7
97.2
37.5
34.7
12 ,5
88.9
19.4
34.7
93.0
80.6
76,4
73.6
88.9
34.7
81.9
86,1
8.3
80.5
94,5
90.3
20.8
5.5
94.5
58.4
68.1
58.3
16.6
61.1
13.9
??.,*•
7 3. (*
26."
ft 6 .' i
3 1 . 'A
14.M
85.1
43. V
32. fc
89. ^
•i7.:-~»
19.)')
79. ?,
68.4
Tk. ?>
76.7
75.4
24 . I
40.4
34.4
10.1
82.:70.S
7 4 . il
63. ?
49.2
33.2-
AVERAGK FOR PE.IOD
e.o
75.0
87.5
87.5
25.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
87.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
0.0
62,5
100.0
100.0
37.5
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
0.0
58..1
66,7
83.3
29.2
66.,?
20.fi
54.
83.3
66.7
41.7
91.7
20.8
8.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
91.7
87. S
83.3
83.3
79.2
95.8
54.2
58.1
87,5
75.0
33.3
91.7
75.1
91.7
83.3
6 2.[5
75.0
37.5
S8.3
7 5.0
7 5.0
79.2
16.7
100.0
91.7
87.5
0.0
87.5
75.0
16.7
100.0
15.0
75.0
70,8
100.0
79.2
79.2
91.7
54.2
33.3
8 7.5
100.0
75.0
12.5
83.3
83.3
100.0
100.0
70.8
91.7
0.0
83.3
^6.2
6 a. a
•iO.Q
57.3
•11.7
68.8
34.4
60.4
71,9
27 . I
H3.3
76.0
84.4
85.4
92.7
H6.5
76.0
82.3
7 9.2
40,6
78.1
92.7
77.1
'J9.fi
67.7
H5.4
95. fl
84.4
66. "I
(FEBRUARY I 9 & )
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
0.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
0.0
0.0
75.0
75,0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
75,0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100 .0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100 .0
25.0
100.0
0.0
Oct.
I Q | II Q
951. DIFFUSION INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-HONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949. ..
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954,,.
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960..,
1961. ..
1962..,
1963...
1964...
1965,..
1966. ..
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972,..
1973...
1974...
1975. . .
1976...
1977...
1978, ..
1979.,.
1980...
1981...
1982...
100.0
o.o
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100. 0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
25.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
62.5
62.5
0 .0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
25.0
62.5
37.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
62.5
25.0
100.0
62.5
25.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0
62,5
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
100 .0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
50 .0
100.0
0.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
12.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
12.5
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
25.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100 .0
100.0
100.0
87,5
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.Q
100.0
50.0
100.0
12.5
IV Q
III Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.0
100.0
83.3
87.5
100.0
8.3
100.0
70.8
54.2
0.0
100.0
83.3
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
8.3
100.0
100.0
16.7
100.0
50.0
83.3
54.2
45.8
100.0
62.5
37.5
70.fl
7 5.0
33,3
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
91.7
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
83.3
54.2
91.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
66.7
58.3
38.9
41.7
69.4
69.5
72.2
22.2
58.3
83.3
69.5
16.7
69.4
80.6
30.6
83.3
69.4
66.6
72.2
83.3
50.0
58.3
83.3
55.6
30.6
61.1
77.8
63,9
0.0
52.8
77.8
72.2
66.7
44.4
63.9
88.9
33.3
50.0
77.8
58.3
83.3
2.8
61.1
94.4
91.7
0.0
94.4
86.1
25.0
91.7
63.9
69.4
69.4
86.1
52.8
77.8
91.7
33.3
27.8
66.7
77.8
72.2
0.0
58.3
83.3
66.7
83.3
30.5
61.1
75.0
33.3
100.0
62.5
100.0
4.2
83.3
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
37.5
8.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100,0
95.8
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
66.7
83.3
29.2
0.0
91.7
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
6.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
100.0
50.0
58.3
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100,0
10O.0
100.0
100.0
45.8
100.0
0.0
35]4
93.8
74.0
92.7
39.6
59.4
97.9
83.3
26.0
67.7
78.1
33.3
91.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
95.8
91.7
100.0
86.5
34.4
100.0
100,0
83.3
28.1
72.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
68.8
47.9
49.0
952. DIFFUSION INDEX OF ( LAGGING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
(PERCF.NT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
1953.. .
1954...
1955...
1956. ..
1957. ..
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968. . .
1969.. .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. ..
1980...
1981. ..
1982...
.
58.3
41.7
66,7
58.3
58.3
16.7
50.0
91.7
66.7
25.0
33.3
41.7
41.7
83.3
33.3
25.0
75.0
66.7
50.0
75.0
75.0
91.7
8.3
8.3
83.3
50,0
41,7
33.3
33.3
83.3
83.3
50.0
8.3
75.0
75.0
41.7
66.7
41.7
58.3
25.0
58.3
75.0
16.7
33.3
58.3
91.7
50.0
33.3
41.7
91.7
58.3
75.0
58.3
58.3
83.3
33.3
33.3
41.7
91.7
66.7
16.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
58.3
75.0
25.0
66 .7
41.7
8.3
75.0
91.7
58.3
41.7
58.3
83.3
75.0
41.7
58.3
91.7
25.0
58.3
50.0
7 5.0
58,3
66.7
58.3
50.0
66.7
50.0
16.7
66.7
41.7
0.0
33.3
33.3
41.7
75.0
41.7
66.7
41.7
58.3
33,3
41.7
58.3
41.7
83.3
16.7
41.7
66.7
91.7
41.7
58.3
66.7
41.7
83.3
50.0
58.3
66.7
100.0
50.0
83.3
83.3
50.0
16.7
50.0
100.0
58.3
0.0
41.7
66.7
58.3
91.7
50.0
83.3
58.3
58.3
41.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
25.0
58.3
100.0
75.0
0.0
75.0
91.7
25.0
75.0
75.0
58.3
75.0
75.0
50.0
41.7
83.3
41.7
58.3
8 3.3
50.0
83.3
0.0
58.3
83.3
83.3
41,7
50.0
66.7
58.3
25.0
41.7
75.0
91 .7
66.7
25.0
75.0
83.3
41.7
8.3
75.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
83.3
83.3
75.0
75.0
50.0
50.0
83.3
75.0
16.7
50.0
83.3
50.0
0.0
58.3
83.3
75.0
66.7
33.3
41.7
91.7
41.7
58.3
66.7
58.3
41.7
33.3
58.3
75.0
75.0
25.0
91.7
41.7
25.0
66.7
58.3
50.0
50.0
75.0
66.7
58.3
41.7
16.7
66.7
75.0
25.0
75.0
58.3
25.0
58.3
33.3
100.0
33.3
58.3
8.3
91.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
75.0
83.3
75.0
58.3
25.0
58,3
58.3
58.3
83.3
66.7
25.0
91.7
66.7
50.0
66.7
25.0
83.3
58.3
83.3
58.3
66.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
66.7
83.3
58.3
50.0
75.0
66 .7
66.7
8.3
41.7
50.0
83.3
66.7
58.3
41.7
50.0
41. 7
83. 3
58. 3
41. 7
41. 1
83.3
58,3
50.0
66.7
58.3
75.0
58.3
50.0
58.3
50.0
75.0
50.0
33.3
75.0
25.0
75,0
83.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
41.7
66,7
75,0
41.7
58.3
91.7
25.0
58.3
75.0
33.3
75.0
66,7
16.7
33.3
25.0
41.7
50.0
100.0
75.0
58.3
41.7
58 . 3
41 .7
66.7
91.7
33.3
50.0
66.7
75.0
58.3
41 .7
58.3
75.0
58.3
83.3
66.7
0.0
33.3
58.3
50.0
50.0
50.0
41.7
66.7
58.3,
16.7
66.7
58.3
83.3
16,7
75.0
83.3
66.7
66.7
16.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
16.7
66.7
75.0
66.7
75.0
33.3
83,3
66.7
33.3
58. 3
58. 3
66. 7
16. 7
66. 7
16 .7
75.0
50.0
66.7
16.7
33.3
83.3
91.7
41.7
33.3
66.7
75.0
50.0
50.0
33.3
75.0
66 .7
33.3
33.3
75.0
58.3
30.6
69.5
63.9
58.3
27.8
55.5
83.3
52.8
33.3
50.0
75.0
38.9
58.3
41.7
63,9
63.9
69.5
55.5
61.1
75.0
58.3
19.4
38.9
72.2
38.9
30.6
38.9
4 4.4
75,0
61.1
63.9
25.0
100.0
25.0
83.3
83.3
58.3
58.3
25.0
100.0
50.0
66.7
33.3
83.3
50.0
58.3
66.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
83.3
33.3
100.0
75.0
8.3
16.7
66.7
83.3
50.0
0.0
66.7
100.0
91.7
66.7
33.3
66.7
75.0
41.7
83.3
83.3
41 .7
58.3
41.7
83.3
66.7
50.0
50.0
66.7
50.0
58.3
65.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
58.3
50.0
91.7
75.0
0.0
16.7
75.0
83.3
50.0
0.0
66.7
100.0
100.0
66.7
33.3
66.7
75 .0
41 .7
83.3
83.3
41 .7
50.0
41.7
100.0
58.3
50 .0
66.7
75.0
33.3
58.3
41 .7
83.3
58.3
83.3
66.7
33.3
91 .7
50.0
0.0
16.7
66.7
66.7
33.3
16.7
50.0
100.0
50.0
50 .0
16.7
50.0
47.2
41.7
83.3
80.5
86.1
22.2
44.5
100.0
83.3
22.2
63.9
77.8
33.3
86.1
47.2
63.9
63.9
97.2
61.1
75.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
27.8
91.7
83.3
22.2
30.6
58.3
69.5
86.1
61.1
38.9
77.8
30.6
75. 0
63.9
44.4
55.6
30.5
80.5
55,5
72.2
30.5
83.4
47.2
47.2
66.7
66.7
72.2
61.1
61.1
55.6
61.1
55.6
27.8
63.9
4 .1 , 7
58.3
66.7
27.8
63.9
66.7
66.7
66.7
22.2
66.7
50.0
50.0
63.9
80.5
58.3
55.5
47.2
75.0
61.1
61.1
58.4
61.1
61.1
52.8
66.7
69.4
47.2
58.3
66.7
50.0
69,4
69.5
22.2
33.3
.
44.4
52.8
70.8
59.0
60.4
32.0
67.3
70.8
63.9
34.7
66.0
66.0
42.4
68.8
61.8
62.5
63.9
70.1
52.8
62.5
70.8
41.0
36.8
47.9
68.0
54.9
25.0
49.3
66.0
68.1
60.4
39.6
57.0
63^9
50.0
41.7
41.6
75.0
58.4
47.2
27.8
72.2
952. DIFFUSION INDEX OF (> LAGGING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
AVE *AGE FOR
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)
1949.,.
1950...
1951.. .
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956. ..
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
1960...
1961. ..
1962...
1963...
1964
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970 ...
1971. ..
1972. ..
1973...
1974. .,
1975...
1976. . .
1977.. .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
NOTE:
58.3
41.7
83.3
75.0
83.3
33.3
41.7
100.0
91.7
13.3
58.3
66.7
50.0
75.0
41.7
75.0
58.3
91.7
66.7
58.3
100.0
50 .0
0,0
33.3
«3.3
100.0
13.3
16.7
50.0
66.7
100.0
66.7
16.7
41.7
41.7
83.3
83.3
91.7
33.3
41.7
100.0
83.3
33.3
66.7
75.0
25.0
91.7
58.3
58.3
58.3
100.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
16,7
91.7
83.3
33.3
41 .7
50.0
66.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
41.7
41.7
83.3
83.3
83.3
0.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
66.7
91.7
25.0
91.7
41.7
58.3
75.0
100.0
66.7
91.7
100.0
50.0
0.0
33.3
100.0
66.7
0.0
33.3
75.0
7 5,0
83.3
50.0
33.3
41.7
41.7
83.3
58.3
83.3
8.3
41.7
100.0
75.0
0.0
83.3
91.7
25.0
91.7
41.7
58.3
58.3
83.3
66.7
66.7
100.0
33.3
16.7
66.7
83.3
66.7
0.0
50.0
75.0
66.7
66.7
33.3
66.7
33.3
41.7
75.0
58.3
83.3
0.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
66.7
75.0
75.0
91.7
41.7
66.7
91.7
33.3
16.7
66,7
66.7
66.7
0.0
58.3
75.0
66.7
83.3
33.3
50.0
These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.
25.0
66.7
75.0
58.3
83.3
0.0
66.7
83.3
100.0
0.0
100.0
83.3
25 .0
91.7
83.3
75,0
75.0
83.3
50.0
100.0
83.3
41.7
83.3
83.3
41.7
66.7
8.3
91.7
83.3
83.3
16.7
100.0
66.7
25.0
83.3
83.3
75.0
58.3
66."
25.0
100,0
83.3
41.7
66.7
8.3
91.7
83.3
75.0
33.3
100.0
66.7
25.0
66.7
91.7
58.3
58.3
58 .
66.'
100 .()
83.3
33.3
66.7
83.3
33.3
100.0
83.
41 .
75 .(
8.
91.
75.
66.
33.
100.0
58 .3
41.7
75.0
75.0
58.3
75.0
83.3
33.3
83.3
83.3
50.0
66. 7
83.3
83.3
0.0
66 .7
100 .0
66.7
100.0
25.0
66.7
58. J
66.'
66.'
66. 7
16. 7
66 ."1
91.' ?
83..
83.3
16.7
83.3
50,0
50.0
91,7
58.3
16.7
33.3
75.0
83.3
83.3
0.0
66.7
50.0
50.0
100.0
50 .0
33.3
50.0
83.3
83.3
66.7
16 .7
66 .7
91.7
33.3
94.4
83.3
41 .7
69.5
8.3
91.7
80.5
75.0
27.8
1OO.0
63.9
30. 6
75.0
83.3
63.9
63.9
77.8
41.6
72.2
88.9
30.6
52.8
55.6
86.1
58.3
22.2
50.0
8 3.3
83.3
77.8
11.1
72.2
PERIOD
83.3
36.1
83.3
83.3
47.2
55.5
36.1
94.4
58.3
55.6
50.0
75.0
44.4
58.3
58.4
77.8
63.9
72.2
69.4
38.9
94.5
66.7
2.8
16.7
69.5
77.8
44.4
5.6
61.1
100,0
80.6
61.1
27.8
61.1
37.5
67.4
81.9
56.9
73.6
17.4
72.9
83.3
76.4
25.0
83.3
68.1
36.8
77.8
68.1
65.3
67.4
82.6
48.6
79.9
86.8
29.2
24.3
54.9
83.3
64.6
12.5
50.0
81.2
75.0
77.1
32.6
58.4
(FEBRUARY 1983)
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Previously Published Composite Index of 12 Leading Indicators
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
106.9
124.5
131.9
139.1
142.6
134.7
135.2
125.5
135.6
106.4
125.7
133.0
140.3
142.3
134.1
134.2
125.0
107.1
126.4
135.6
140.3
143.2
131.5
135.8
124.8
I Apr.
109.4
126.3
136.0
141.5
140.3
126.2
137.3
125.7
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
111.9
128.0
135.8
141.8
141.4
123.0
136.0
126.5
115.5
129.7
135.5
142.5
141.6
123.9
135.2
127.1
118.3
130.2
135.0
141.2
141.2
128,1
134.8
129.1
119.2
129.9
136.9
142.0
140.1
130.7
134.1
128.8
119.9
130.1
138.0
142.9
140.1
134.4
130.7
130.2
|
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
120.5
129.9
139.1
143.6
137.8
135.0
128.3
130.7
121.2
131.8
139.4
142.8
135.6
136.5
128.2
130.8
121.7
132.5
140.2
143.0
135.2
136.4
127.1
131.8
Previously Published Composite Index of 4 Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Jan.
115.4
120.3
126.3
134.0
144.8
146.1
142.0
134.1
129.0
Mar.
113.7
121.6
127.6
135.0
144.9
145.2
142.5
135.5
112.3
122.4
129.7
136.9
146.6
143.5
142.4
134.9
Apr.
112.6
123.3
130.0
139.3
144.1
140.5
142.2
133.8
May
June
113.4
123.4
130.6
139.5
145.6
138.0
142.2
134.6
114,2
123.6
131.3
140.1
145.0
136.7
142.7
133.0
July
Aug.
115.1
124.0
131.7
140.5
145.4
136.5
142.8
132.2
116.7
124.3
131.9
141.4
145.0
136.7
142.5
131.2
Sept.
|
Oct.
|
117.9
124.1
133.8
143.0
145.1
139.7
139.9
128.3
117.5
124.3
132.6
141.4
144.9
138.1
141.8
130.4
Nov.
j
Dec.
118.4
125.6
134.7
144.3
145.0
140.8
138.5
128.5
118.9
127.1
135.7
145.5
145.2
141.3
136.5
128.2
Nov.
Dec.
120.6
120.2
131.1
152.7
179.1
175.6
184.9
164.7
120.1
119.9
131.7
155.2
177.9
191.0
181.7
162.5
Previously Published Composite Index of 6 Lagging Indicators
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
140.6
119.5
120.2
134.1
157.4
178.4
189.1
182.5
159.9
135.9
119.0
121.0
135.9
158.5
180.8
186.5
184.1
132,4
118.7
121.7
137.2
158.4
190.0
181.2
183.8
129.0
118.7
122.3
137.8
161.8
196.2
179.4
184.5
106
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
126.9
119.2
123.1
140.0
162.5
183.5
189.6
184.1
122.4
120.1
125.0
142.0
163.6
168.5
191.4
183.8
122.7
120.4
125.2
143.5
164.8
163.6
192.6
182.5
122.4
120.0
126.5
144.5
166.4
161.7
193.5
175.2
122.1
121.1
127.8
146.4
170.6
164.2
194.1
172.4
|
Oct.
122.7
120.7
129.4
148.1
175.9
168.5
189.5
168.4
j
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index
Basic data
Series t i t l e
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1.
Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
. .
5. Average weekly i n i t i a l c l a i m s , State
unemployment insurance 1 (thousands)
8. New orders f o r consumer goods and materials
in 1972 d o l l a r s ( b i l l i o n d o l l a r s )
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower d e l i v e r i e s (percent)
12.
Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders f o r plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars ( b i l l i o n dollars)
29.
New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 d o l . , smoothed2 (ann. rate, b i l . do!.) .
99.
Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent) . .
19.
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index* 1941-43=10)
106.
Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(bil1 ion dollars)
. .
111. Change in credit—business and consumer
borrowing (annual rate, percent).
910.
Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
Employees on n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l p a y r o l l s
(thousands)
.
.
. . . . .
51.
Personal income less t r a n s f e r s i n 1972
d o l l a r s (annual r a t e , b i l l i o n d o l l a r s ) . . . .
47.
Industrial production, t o t a l
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales i n 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920.
Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index' 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91.
Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
. . . . . . .
. . . .
. .
77. R a t i o , c o n s t a n t - d o l l a r inventories to s a l e s ,
manufacturing and trade ( r a t i o )
62.
Labor cost per u n i t of o u t p u t , manufacturing-actual data as a percent o f trend (percent) .
109. Average prime r a t e charged by banks
(percent)
101.
Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding
in 1972 d o l l a r s ( m i l l i o n d o l l a r s )
95. Ratio, consumer installment c r e d i t to
personal income (percent)
930. Composite index of 6 lagging i n d i c a t o r s 3
(index: 1967=100)
. .
Nov.
1982
Oct.
1982
Oct.
to
Nov.
1982
Jan.
1983
Dec.
1982
33 .8
38 . 9
38 . 9
r651
r616
p3
9 . 7i
~>
Nov.
to
Dec.
1982
Dec.
to
Jan.
1983
. • / .
0 .08
0 .00
0 .76
r531
507
0.15
0.41
0.15
^J
r27.71
r28.11
28.21
p31.28
0.07
0.02
0.61
44
40
38
41
- 0 .16
- 0 .08
0.14
111.6
113.0
111.1
pll3.1
0 .17
-0.24
0 . 30
rll.99
rll.40
rl3.00
pll.75
-0.11
94 .7
96.3
105.4
119.4
0.05
r-5.94
r-13.46
p-21.18
NA
-0.42
-0.43
-0.40
-0.48
-0.50
-0.16
-0.03
-0.0.1
132.66
138.10
139.37
144.27
0.25
0 .06
0.26
r822.0
r828.5
r836.8
p856.0
0.25
0.32
0.87
-4.5
-5.4
p-5.5
NA
-0.05
-0.01
NA
139.6
140.1
141.2
pl46 .3
0.36
0.79
3.61
r88,877
r88,750
r88,535
p88,874
-0.12
-0.20
0.41
r l ,056.5
rl,062.3
rl,066.1
pi,067.5
0.27
0.18
0.08
rl35.7
134.8
rl35.0
pl36.2
-0.18
0.04
0.32
rl48,162
rl50,261
pl49,528
NA
0.31
-0.11
NA
132.2
132.3
132.0
pl32.8
0 .08
-0.23
0 .61
18.0
19.4
-0.08
-0.29
rl.75
pi.75
NA
-0.53
0.00
99.3
98.9
97 .9
p97.4
-0.15
-0.37
-0.27
12.52
11.85
11.50
11.00
-0.47
-0.25
-0.52
109,093
106,412
104,521
plO5,873
-0.65
-0.47
0.50
12.79
rl2.79
pl2.84
NA
0.00
0.19
-1.83
-1.18
17.1
r l .79
120.5
17 . 3
118 .3
116.9
pll5.7
0.29
0 .27
-0.26
0 .44
NA
0.16
-0.79
NA
NA
-1.03
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
(pp. 108-109) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
Hhis series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement,
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
2
This
3
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Table 1. Scores, Standardization Factors, and Weights for Composite Index Components
Revised index
Previous index
Series
Score
LEADING INDEX
1- Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance'4
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars
32, *Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries
12. Net business formation
;
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 197£ dollars . . . .
29. New building permits, private housing units . . . .;
,.
36. *Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed3
5
92. *Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed
..
99. *Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed5 . .j
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
I
,.
104. *Change in total liquid assets, smoothed5
;
,. .
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars . ,
]
111. *Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer i borrowing . . . .
1
Standardization
factor2
Weight
3
Score
l
Standardization
factor2
Weight3
78
80
76
69
73
71
72
78
68
0.457
5.543
2.880
3.863
.999
6.115
4.831
2.440
.321
1.027
1.067
1.001
.909
.962
.935
.948
1.027
.896
75
77
7,2
80
72
70
73
73
2.530
'si
2.6i6
85
.324
2.633
.892
1.149
83
81
.051
.414
1.067
1.093
1.067
*69
71
.417
2.627
.932
.959
90
88
89
79
.330
.517
.937
1.048
1.040
1.017
1.029
.913
87
B?
34
74
.321
.502
.924
1.021
1.064
1.003
1.028
.905
87
81
3.655
.446
1.067
.994
36
3.587
1.098
.016
.894
*76
.633
.933
82
81
.110
.960
1.006
.994
.557
.376
.868
1.123
.062
1.006
*79
79
.961
'82
.062
1.009
1.009
MARGINAL EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . . . .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
....
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
3. *Layoff rate, manufacturing
....
78
74
80
81
.457
3.885
5.543
.160
.997
.946
1.022
1.035
CAPITAL. INVESTMENT COMMITMENTS
12. Net business formation
. .
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars
29. New building permits., private housing units . . . .
73
71
72
.999
6.115
4.831
1.014
.986
1.000
72
70
78
.996
6.194
5.064
.982
.955
1.064
76
69
78
68
2.880
3.863
2.440
.321
1.045
.948
1.072
.935
72
80
73
2.818
3.840
2.530
.990
1.100
*66
.324
.907
COINCIDENT INDEX
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls . . . . . . . . .
51, Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars
47. Industrial production, total
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
LAGGING INDEX
91. Average duration of unemployment'4
.
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
. .
77. *Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
.
62. *Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data as a percent
of trend
.
109. *Average prime rate charged by banks
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars . , . .
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars
95. *Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
INVENTORY INVESTMENT AND PURCHASING
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars
32. *Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries .
36. *Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed3
92. *Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed3
....
99. *Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed5
PROFITABILITY
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . . .
80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj in 1972 dollars
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector . . . .
MONEY AND FINANCIAL FLOWS
104. *Change in total liquid assets, smoothed5
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars .
110. Total private borrowing
111. *Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer borrowing
68
38
467
374
818
840
996
194
064
s
1.014
1.041
.973
1.081
.973
.946
1.054
1.003
81
62
65
2.610
2.497
.207
1.168
.894
,938
85
63
60
2.633
2.210
,209
1.226
.909
.865
83
81
74
.051
.414
3.263
1.046
1.021
.933
73
69
,053
.417
1.028
.972
'71
2.627
1.666
*First differences rather than symmetrical percent changes are computed for this series.
l
Scores for the previous index are based on six business cycles (1948-75); scores for the revised index are based on seven business
cycles (1948-80).,
standardization factors are computed over the period 1948-78 for the previous index and 1948-81 for the revised index.
3
The weight for a given series is the ratio of that series' score to the average score of all series in that index.
''Changes for this series are inverted; i.e., they are multiplied by -1.
^Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
^Revised standardization factor was computed over the period 1966-81.
108
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Table 2. Index Standardization Factors
Previous index, 1948-78
Average
absolute
change1.
Composite index
Index standardization
factor2
Revised index, 1948-81
Average
absolute
change 1
Index standardization
factor2
0.474
0.556
0.496
0.582
Coincident index
.853
1.000
.852
1.000
Lagging index
.669
.784
.602
.707
Leading index . .
1
The average absolute change is obtained as follows: (a) For each month, a weighted average of the standardized changes of
all components in that index is computed; (b) a long-term average without regard to sign is calculated from these averages.
2
This measure is the ratio of the average absolute change in each index to the average absolute change in the coincident
index.
Table 3. Target Trend Computation
Revised index
Previous index
Series
Specific cycles
(peak to peak)
Monthly
trend1
(percent)
Initial
Terminal
Specific cycles
(peak to peak)
Monthly
trend1
(percent)
Initial
Terminal
COINCIDENT INDEX COMPONENTS
Sep. 48- Oct. 74June 53
Feb. 79
0.178
0.186
Sep. 48- Mar, 80June 53
July 81
Nov. 73Dec. 78
.281
Oct. 48- Jan. 80Aug. 81
June 53
June 74Feb. 79
.334
July 48July 53
.282
Dec. 48- Mar. 79Mar. 53
Feb. 81
41.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
51.
Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars
.284
Oct. 48June 53
47.
Industrial production, total
.340
July 48July 53
57.
Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
.286
Dec. 48- Mar. 74Mar. 53
Dec. 78
TARGET TREND2
,
Mar. 79July 81
.271
.272
l
The total percent change from the initial specific cycle average to the terminal specific cycle average is converted to a
monthly rate by the compound interest formula.
2
The target trend is the simple average of the monthly trends in the four components.
Table 4. Trend Adjustment Factors
Revised index
Previous index
Composite index
Trend in
raw index1
(percent)
Trend adjustment factor2
(percent)
Trend in
raw index1
(percent)
Trend adjustment factor2
(percent)
0.173
+0.099
0.132
+0.139
Coincident index
.436
-.164
.446
-.175
Laggi ng index
.442
-.170
.253
+ .018
Leading index
J
2
..
See table 3 (above) for the method of computing trends.
The trend adjustment factor is the target trend minus the trend in the raw index.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FUNDING GUIDE
Series titles
(Sea complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index}
Accession rote, manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment, inden
Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
-.
New orders, manufacturing, 01
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Df
Priess, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, 01
Sates, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption
Imports of automobiles ant! parts
Balance of payments-See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
,
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserva
Bonds-Sag Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industriel production
Business expenditures, new piant and equipment
Business expenditures, now plant and equipment,, Dl . . .
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans-Soe Bank loans.
Business saving
Canada-Stie International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (8EA)
Manufacturing (F:RB)
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital investment-See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars .•
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Total
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded .
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial leans outstanding, nut change
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfat m business sector
„
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changas
„,
Compensation of employees
„,
Compensation of employees, percent of national
income
Compensation, real averace hourly, all employees,
nonfaim business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfaim business sector, percent changes
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarn economy, percent changes .
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages ond salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction
„
NOTE:
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
umber
Charts
2
604
16
56
Tables
61
92
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date
(*)
8/81
1/83
18
64
61
970
58
974
97!i
971
976
978
977
972
973
24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
6/82*
6/82
. 12/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
34
34
31
48
48
48
48
49
48
48
48
55
616
22
56
65
92
9/82
1/83
50
64
72
112
15,35
32
73
72
2/83
3/82
43
43
93
94
33
33
72
72
1/82
1/82
45
45
14
12
13
13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23
67
67
67
76
72
65
65
6/82
12/82
6/82
6/82
12/81
2/83
3/82
35
24
34
34
44
32
32
295
46
82
11/82
37
83
82
34
20
20
20
64
64
64
12/82
12/82
12/82
25
25
25
97
11
965
24
24
37
66
66
75
V83
1/83
1/83
33
33
33
914
35
34
11
29
29
60
70
70
2/83
8/82
8/82 ,
15
37
37
442
90
441
37
51
18
51
18,51
89
62
89
62,89
4/82 •
3/82
4/82
3/82
20
20
20
20
920
920c
951
940
9
72
112
10
39
36
11
23
115,35
32
29
76
61
970
60
2/83 '
74*'
60
66
73
2/83
2/83
3/82
2/83
3/82
15
15
32
43
11/8T
72
15
43
345
49
87
11/82
56
345c
280
50
45
87
82
11/82
10/82
56
56
64
30,47
70,83
10/82
56
346
49
88
11/82
56
346c
50
88
11/82
56
340
49
87
6/82
15
340c
50
87
6/82
15
341
49
87
7/82
15
341c
348
349
50
50
50
87
88
88
7/82
8/81
8/81
62
53
19
63
9/82
22
15
62
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index}
110
OF CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
(*)
920
920c
940
10
39
11
2/83
11/B1
2/83
930
930c
10
39
2/93
11«
15
914
915
913
917
916
910
910c
11
11
11
11
11
10
39
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
11/81
15
15
15
15
15
15
29
13,25
23
24
67
66
67
6/82
3/82
9/82
35
32
28
248
87
86
249
89
28
47
25
25
47
25
25
S3
67
67
83
67
67
10/82
9/82
9/82
10/82
9/82
3/82
51
51
51
51
51
35
12,21
22
64
65
8/82
12/82
26
24
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
33
73
72
73
n
5/82
5/82
11/82
2/82
43
43
43
45
320
320c
322
322c
58
49
49,59
49
49
22
84,95
84,95
114
84
65
5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82
12/82
59
59
59
59
31
20
10
116
12,23
23
34
8/82
8/82
2/82
32
32
46
112
110
72
32
32
15,35
3/82
11/82
2/83
43
44
43
66
113
95
39
33
35
32
15,35
33
32
5/82
5/82
11 /82
2/82
3/82
43
43
43
45
42
4/02
11/ 32
12/82
7/82
64
53
26
525
564
548
517
15
15*
I
33
12,21
2/82
2/82
45
28
970
965
951
974
363
967
38
37
36
38
36
37
6/82
1/83
2/(13
1/82
7/82
1/82
34
33
15
48
15
36
966
37"
7/82
24'
962
975
952
950
964
1/82
1/H2
2/83
2 /a 3
8/82
18
48
15
15
26
976
978
977
960
972
973
961
1/82
2/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
12/82
1/82
1/82
7/82
48
36
48
49
,
,
CI, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; MIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK
feries
t! script ions
Tatilos
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four cDinciders
,
l:our coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers
Six laggers, rate of change
LeEiding indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventary investment and purchasing
Margiral employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
Profitability
'
Twelve leaders
Twelve leaders, rate of change
Consuuction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. .
Expend Mures, plus machinery and equipment sales...
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, as percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential as percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Hcustng starts
Consjmer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consjmer goods and materials, new orders
Consjmer floods, industrial production
Consjmer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Retio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
."
All item:?, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol..
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net ciange
„
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.
Deb1:-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
New orders, defense products
Obligations incurred
Deficit-See Government.
Defletors-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance :
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, retail tiade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, nst, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade . ,
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Disposable personal income-See Income.
Current is-sjii
(p;i:)e numbers)
Series
number
(1977).
48
15
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Earnings-See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments, rate of .change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag. payrolls, 01
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, 01
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, mfg. production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, D l . . ;
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, and money, Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Food-See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Net exports, goods and services, constant do)., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA . . .
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves . . ,
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and servict
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Current issue
{page numbers)
Series
number
2
441
16
51
61
89
17
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1
39
17
38
14,17
36
18
51
17
17
12,16
36
16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18,51
12,16
961
36"
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date!
(*)
8/81
4/82
11/82
62
76
62
74
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61
89
89
89
89
62
61
89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62,89
61
77
74
11/82
7/82
1/82
7/82
7/82
3/82
4/82
7/82
3/82
2/82
1/82
8/81
2/83
7/8?
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/82
8/81
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/82
3/82
3/82
3/82
3/82
7/82
7/82
34
72
2/82
94
213
917
33
40
11
72
80
60
1/82
10/82
2/83
311
311c
48
48
84
84
11/82
11/82
667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
255
250
251
57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
44
44
47
93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
82
82
83
8/82
8/82
8/82
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/82
1/83
8/82
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
10/82
33
72
1/82
20
63
8/82
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
11/82
263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
81
81
83
81
81
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
15
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes.
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit . . .
Gross national product
GNP, :onstant dollars
GNP, :onstant dollars, differences
GNP, ;onstant dollars, percent changes..
GNP, :urrent dollars
GNP, :urrent dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
311
311c
68
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
310c
217
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date)
(*)
48
48
30
84
84
70
11/82
11/82
9/82
58
59
39
19,40
63,80
49
49
49
49
49
49
40
25
49
49
49
31
20
48
48
40
80
80
71
63
84
84
80
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
11/82
11/62
10/82
17
17
61
61
7/82
3/82
19
19
16
12,16
7/82
7/82
15
15
36"
61
61
77
74
7/82
15'
25
13,25
25
47
67
67
67
83
3/82
6/82
9/82
10/82
35
35
51
51
310
310c
48
48
84
84
11/82
11/82
49
49
345
49
87
11/82
56
345c
280
50
45
30,47
87
82
70,83
11/82
10/82
10/82
56
56
56
346
49
88
11/82
56
346c
95
286
287
225
224
50
15,35
45
47
40
40
11/82
11/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
56
43
37
37
22
22
22
39*'
40
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment ..
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, DI
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits .
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP
961
I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income ..
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Corp, profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income ;
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant d o l . . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Income on foreign investment in the U.S.
Income on U.S. investments abroad . . . . . ;
.
Interest, net
:
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
...:.;...,.
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income, ratio to money supply
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors'income with .IVA and CCA, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year . . , : . : ; . . . ; . ; .
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . . . .
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, 01
Industrial production - See alsn International comparisons.
Business equipment
"
Consumer goods
Durable manufactures
;..'....:.;
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, 01
Total, rate of change
;
Installment debt-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, DI . . ,
Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
227
40
340
49
340c
341
341c
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
51
51c
108
282
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23
967
76
75
73
74
47
5
87
6/82
87
6/82
50
87
7/82
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
63
7/82
8/82
8/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
49
50
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
14,19
39
31
45
47
45
47
50
50
19
23
28
37
24
22
20
20
14,20,58
37
39
962
45
73
82
12,16
36
18
71"
82
83
82
83
88
88
63
65
69
79
75
67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75
61
74
62
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
15
65
65
57
57
55
22
22
22
8/82
10/82
40*
56
10/82
10/82
10/82
8/81
9/82
3/82
1/82
56
57
57
62
62
22
32
36
1/82
36*"
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
24
24
24
24
24
7/82
12/82
24'
2/82
1/32
3/82
18
18
18
8/81
NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FUNDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Source;; of
Series," following this indexj
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yiBlds
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
„
Prime rale charged by banks
,
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
„
„
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada, index
>
Canada, percent changes
France, index
France, jitsrjent charges
Italy, iniitjx
Italy, percent changes
Japan, index
Japan, pe-cent changes
.
United Kingdom, index
United "Ongdo", percent c'langps
United States, index
United States percent d anges
West Germany, Indux
West Germany, percent changes .
...
Industrial production
Canada
France
.
.
.
Italy
Japan . .
OECO, (iiropeancouPti.es
United Kingdom .
United States
West Germany . .
.,
. .
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
J a p a n . . .
United Kingdom
United Status,
West Gimrany. .
.
. .
......
International transactions-See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military .
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and servicas, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
..
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports cf automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and servirxs, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, changg, percent of GNP
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order, nat change
Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated)
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
,
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,
change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investmant commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, corrmercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in—See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total constant dollars
,
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constarr. dol.
Residential, total, constant dollars
Residential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New ordeis, capital goods, nondefense, constant
dollars
New orders, capital goods, nandefense, current
dollars
Current issue
(page numbers}
Ssries
number
Charts
Historical
data
Series
ascriptions
(*)
Tables
283
289
10/82
10/82
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
12/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, DI
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income en foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.
;
Currant iiisuo
(page numbiifs)
Series
number
Charts
61
970
20
10
24
38
12,23
23
8/82
3/82
652
651
57
57
3/82
8/82
30
15,30
30
29
9/82
2/B3
930
930c
952
3
10
39
36
16
2/83
11/81
2/83
8/81
910
910c
950
14
104
10
39
36
33
13,31
2/83
11/81
2/83
12/81
5/82
6/82
6/82
Japan-See International comparisons.
723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725
96
59
96
95
59"
95
96
59"
96
95
59*'
95
95
59
95
49
84,95
49,59
84,95
95
59*
95
94
58
94
58
94
58
58
94
58
94
58
94
14,20,58 63,94
94
58
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
70
70
70
70
70
36
70
667
622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651
57
57
57
56
56
57
56
57
56
56
57
56
57
57
93
93
93
92
92
93
92
93
92
92
93
92
93
93
8/82
8/82
8/82
5/82
1/83
8/82
1/83
8/82
5/82
1/83
8/82
1/83
8/82
8/82
65
65
65
64
64
65
64
65
64
64
65
64
65
65
30
245
247
3!)
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78
26 .,42
42'
47
27
13,26
27
11
15,27
27
26
38
27
68,81
81
83
68
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
68
10/82
10/82
10/82
9/82
8/82
1/83
2/83
9/82
9/82
9/82
1/82
9/82
26
68
9/82
24
24
37
11
23
66
66
75
60
66
1/83
1/83
1/83
24
67
9/82
243
242
42
42
10/82
10/82
89
249
87
241
240
25
47
25
25
47
25
42
42
81
81
67
83
67
67
83
67
81
81
733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
5/82
5/82
4/82
4/82
68
68
68
68
69
69
69
69
68
68
59
59
68
68
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
12/82
1/83
66
66
66
66
66
66
24
66
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Laboi cost per unit of output, private business sector.
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
;...
Loan<;-See Credit.
10/82
15
15
44
40
M
Man-hours-Sea Employment and unemployment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change
Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
;
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M1
;
Money supply M1, percent changes
Money supply M2
..'....'.......
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply M1
Ratio personal income to money supply M2 . . . .
Mortgage debt, net change
'.
Mortage yields secondary market
Municipal bond yields
913
78
26
12,21
20
60
2/83
9/82
68
9/82
28
8/82
12/82
26
25
917
n
2/83
104
73,31
31
31
13,31
5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82
8/82
8/82
3/82
2/82
2/82
m
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
32
34
34
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
42
46
46
N
07
11
965
914
23
66
23
66
2/83
3/82
9/82
10/82
9/82
9/82
10/82
9/82
10/82
10/82
8/82
8/82
National defense-See Oefense,
National Government-See Government.
National income-See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondetense, constant d o l . . .
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol, .
Oefense products
{Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars . . . .
Structure:;, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production...
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Gocds output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes.
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing
27
24
8
20
10
548
7
6
23
23
12,21
12,23
23
53
21
21
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
12/82
8/82
8/82
26
26
26
32
32
26
26
26
964
971
8/82 , 26
48
1/82
248
9/82
9/82
9/82
10/82
51
51
51
51
517
721
7/82
1/83
56
8/82
2/83
12/82
25
39
61
49
62
358
370
370c
83
82
84
21
20
15,30
50
50
50
20
20
20
16
NOTE: CI S composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).
112
Series
Historical
tariptions
data
(issue date]
(*)
n/82
11/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
7/82
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Participation rates, civilian labor force
8oth sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of G N P . . .
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving . . :
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditues for, Dl
Contracts and orders for, constant dollars
Contracts and orders for, current dollars..;
Population, civilian employment as percent of
;;..
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
All items, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
Deflators, NI PA
;
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator, GNP, index . .
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Industrial materials
.'....
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices, change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent change . . . . *
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes.. *
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes . . . . . . . . . .
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
;
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
.....
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, DI
Retail trade, Dl . . ;
.:....;......
Wholesale trade, Dl . . .
Prime contracts, military
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers'durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI
Product ion-See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
:
Output per hour, private business sector
;,.;
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes. .
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, cur. dol. . . .
Corporate, with IVA and CCA . . ;
Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic
income
:
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. iric..
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
[issue date)
(*)
453
452
451
51
51
51
4/82
4/82
4/82
20
20
20
55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
9/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
292
293
614
46
46
56
11/82
11/82
1/83
58
58
64 ,
61
970
20
10
90
24
38
12,23
23
18
6/82
6/82
8/82
8/82
3/82
34
34
32
32
20
320
320c
322
322c
49
49,59
49
49
84,95
84,95
84
84
5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82
59
59
59
59
311
311c
310
310c
23
48
48
48
48
28
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
1/82
58
59
49
49
36
867
26
92
37
29
13,28
84
84
84
84
69
79
75
70
69
1/82
10/82
3/82
36"
19
968
13,28
37
69
75
7/82
2/82
36
36
330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
26
48
48
48
48
85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
70
5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
10/82
59
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
76
76
76
90
73
1/82
1/82
1/82
4/82
2/82
48
49
67
9/82
976
978
977
525
358
370
370c
916
50
50
60"
64
46
50
11
12/82
11/82
11/82
2/83
61
61
61
18
16
28
28
9/82
9/82
37
80
79
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
28
37
11
29
9/82
9/82
10/82
10/82
1/82
12/82
6/82
2/83
9/82
29
45
47
9/82
10/82
10/82
37
8/81
18
81
282
283
Quit rate, manufacturing .
Rental income of persons, with CCA
Rental income of.persons, with CCA, percent of national
income
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
28
45
47
38
37
29
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDt
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing,
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Salaries-See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, 01
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving fate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
:
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
•
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies an hand and on order .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
change
Surptus-See Government.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
93
89
249
1/82
9/82
10/82
59
54
11/82
n/82
213
40
10/82
49
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14,22
22
38
27
22
22
9/82
n/82
11/82
1/82
1/83
11/82
11/82
28
28
28
48
28
31
31
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
11/82
11/82
11/82
n/82
n/82
37
58
58
58
58
13,28
3/82
60
13,28
37
27
7/82
2/82
9/82
36
36
28
26
9/82
28
2/82
2/82
46
46
3/82
3/82
2/82
1/82
20
19
18
18
18
114
115
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields..
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio . . ,
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl ,
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
Full-time workers . .
. .
. . .
Males, 20 years and over
Total unemployed
. . . .
. .,
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
.
.
.
Insured, average weekly . . .
Total
. . .
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industlies . . .
Durable goods industries, change in
United Kingdom-See International comparisons
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
lissuedate)
(*)
91
60
5
962
3
15,18
17
12,16
36
16
62
61
61
74
61
445
447
444
37
4
51
51
51
51
18,51
16
89
89
89
89
62,89
61
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/82
8/81
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
3/82
3/82
3/82
20
18
96
25
21
21
64
64
11/82
9/82
26
107
108
32
31
31
12,21
8/82
8/82
2/82
40
40
28
330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
92
1
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
13,28
12,16
5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
3/82
7/82
59
8/81
20
20
, 20
20
20
18
20
ze
15
37
Velocity of money
G NP to money supply M), ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance
37
37
37
48
38
15
37
56
56
284
10/82
57
285
10/82
57
W
Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive prices, change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl ,
7/82
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
'
60
60
60
15
15
NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source,)
(23,66)
33.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).—Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12.
Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
34.
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S, Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35.
Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q),-Source
36.
Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1,2, and 3(13,26,68)
1
(29,70)
Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.
13.
Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)
37.
Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
38.
Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).—Source 2
(26,68)
I-A. Composite Indexes
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over <E0M). —American
Bankers
Association
(33,72)
40.
Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
910.
Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111)
(M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)
15.
Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)
913.
Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series l t 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
914.
Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
915.
Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916.
Composite index of profitability (Includes series 19, 26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)
42.
18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)
Number of persons engaged in nonagricullural activities,
labor force survey (M).~Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)
43.
Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources ? and 3(18,62)
19.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
44.
Unemployment rate, persons unemployed IS weeks and
20.
45.
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor. Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—
The Conference Board
(17,61)
over (M).—Sources 2 and 3
(18,62)
917.
Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
Contracts and orders for plait arid equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)
920.
Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 4 1 , 47, 5 1 , 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)
46.
930.
Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
22.
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
47.
Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)
Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this
series may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69.79)
48.
940.
Employee-hours
(M).-Source 3
49.
Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50.
Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average
workweek
manufacturing
23.
24.
of
production
(M).-Source 3
workers,
(12,16,61,77)
(16,61)
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)
5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S.
Labor
Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis
unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(12,16,61)
industrial production, total
1
(M).—Source
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
in
nonagricultural
establishments
(17,39,61)
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
25.
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26.
Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
53.
27.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)
54.
28.
New private housing units started, total (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3(16,61)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(23,66)
Index of
4
52.
Personal income,, total in 1972 dollars (M).-- Source
1
(19,63)
Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).~
Source 1
(22,65)
6. Value of manufacturers' new oirders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)
29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)
30.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26,42,68,81)
56.
Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).~Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources l t 2, and
3
(12,21,64)
57.
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).~
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58.
Index of consumer sentiment (QfM),—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59.
Sales of retail stores m 1972 dollars (M).- -Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
114
32.
Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
4(i) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
( M ) . - S o u r c e s 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)
84.
Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).—Source
4
(20,64)
85.
Change in money supply M l (M).-Source 4
61.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).—Source 1
(24,67)
86.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67)
62.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)
87.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
88.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)
63.
Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)
89.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
64.
Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
90.
Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)
65.
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)
91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)
Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally
adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(35,73)
93.
Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
94.
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)
95.
60.
66.
67.
Etank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4
(35,73)
68.
labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1
(30,70)
69.
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
70.
Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).—Sources 1, 2t and 3
71.
72.
(27,68)
73.
Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74.
Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4
75.
Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)
nondurable
(20,63)
76.
Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77.
Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
78.
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)
79.
Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)
80.
Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)
81.
Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(29,70)
82.
Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q),—Source
4
(20,64)
83.
Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—
Source 1
(20,64)
Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
1-C. Diffusion Indexes
(31,71)
950.
Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951.
Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952.
Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960.
Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961.
Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)
962.
Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).- Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963.
Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls—172-186 industries (M).—
Source 3
(36,74)
Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal in
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
964.
Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries— 34-35 industries (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
96.
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
965.
Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
97.
Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)
966.
Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
102,
Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
967.
104.
Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(31,71)
Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials 13 industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79)
968.
105.
Money supply M l in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3,
and 4
(31,71)
Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
52-82 i n d u s t r i e s ( M ) . - S t a n d a r d & Poor's
Corporation
(37,75)
106.
Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars ( M ) , -Sources, 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)
970.
Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total— 22 industries (Q).—Source
1
(38,76)
107.
Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
971.
108.
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
972.
109.
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).=Source
4
(35,73)
110.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
973.
112.
Net change in bank loans to businesses(M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,72)
113.
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).-Source
4
(32,72)
Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and t r a d e about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q). -Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
974.
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury
Department of the Treasury
Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
( M ) . - C i t i b a n k and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
975.
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
976.
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)
Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(35,73)
119.
bonds
(M).—U.S.
(34,73)
115
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977.
978.
Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 400
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
292.
Personal saving (Q).--Source 1
293.
Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1
(46,83)
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
295.
Business saving-—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
249.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
298.
Government
1
Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and prcduct accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
247.
250.
Il-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252.
253.
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200.
213.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(40,80)
Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(40,80)
256.
Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
National
1
income
Personal
1
income
(Q).-Source 1
217.
220.
223.
224.
in
in
current
current
227.
dollars
dollars
(Q).—Source
(45,82)
(M).—Source
(40,63)
Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
310.
311.
(46,82)
surplus or deficit, total
Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(48,84)
Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
320.
(Q).—Source
(46,83)
Index of consumer prices,
3
(48,84)
items (M).-Source
(49,59,84,95)
322.
Index of consumer prices, food (M). -Source 3(49,84)
330.
Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).--Source 3
(48,85)
Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)
332.
257.
Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)
Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)
333.
Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
260.
Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335.
Index of produce? prices, industrial commodities ( M ) . Source 3
(48,85)
340.
Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy-adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonally (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
341.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).—Source
3
(49,87)
(40,80)
262.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q). Source 1
(40,80)
263.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
265.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
266.
State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
267.
State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
345.
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)
268.
State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
346.
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)
280.
Compensation of employee!; (Q).-Source 1
348.
282.
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes tQ)-—Source
349.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).~
Source 3
(50,88)
358.
Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
370.
Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
230.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
231.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
232.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
236.
Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
1
Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) , Source 1
225.
255.
Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
(46,82)
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
(45,82)
3
(50,88)
283.
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as ;i percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
284.
Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
239.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
285.
240.
Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent mf national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
286.
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(47,82)
287.
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
288.
Net interest (Q).-Source 1
289.
Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
442.
Total civilian employment, labor force survey ( M ) . ~
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
290.
Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
444.
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).'-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238.
242.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, an
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
243.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
245.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(42,81)
116
(45,82)
Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1983 -180-993/111
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445.
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
565.
National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
446.
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
570.
447.
Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
iiurvey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)
577.
Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S, Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)
578.
Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)
580.
Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)
448.
Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and
3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
452.
Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
453.
Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
588.
Il-D. Government Activities
500.
Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
502.
Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
510.
State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)
604. Exports of agricultural products (Wl).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612.
General imports, total (M).-Source 2
511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
517.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
525.
543.
Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by 8ureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725.
West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
(58,94)
726.
France, index of industrial production (M),—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
727.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
728.
Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
732.
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)
733.
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735.
West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
736.
France, index of consumer prices (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737.
Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Institute Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738.
Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
(59,95)
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
620.
Merchandise imports,
(Q).-Source 1
622.
Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)
651.
Income on U.S.
1
'
(Q).—Source
(57,93)
742.
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
Financial Times (London)
743.
Canada, index of stock prices (M),—Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)
745.
West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746.
France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
747.
Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Institute Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(59,96)
748.
Japan, index of
Exchange (Tokyo)
adjusted,
investments
excluding
abroad
military
(57,93)
667.
Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(57,93)
557.
Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source
668.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
669.
Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
723.
618.
Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
Imports of automobiles and parts (Wl).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
652.
5151. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
722.
616.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)
4
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
(56,92)
548.
5.'i9. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
721.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)
606.
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)
Il-E. U.S. International Transactions
602.
State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)
(M).-Source 4
320.
Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)
501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512.
47. United States, index of industrial production, total
(59,96)
Il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)
(M).-The
(59,96)
stock
prices
(M).—Tokyo
Stock
(59,96)
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