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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert G. Dederick, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication a r e Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D.| Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F-Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: PO2-523-G541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the bacK of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department of
Commerce
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Norman Frumkin, Office of Management and Budget
Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Adrian W. Throop, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles|A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S* Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecaisters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysts of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on ih.e list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 19$8, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additioas
to the report were series from thenational income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations an'd intentions. The, composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic,
$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic, $6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of tti0 data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report,
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have foeeti singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cycltqal movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavipr, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
• economic activity.
Other Economic Measures prov de additional ir" formation for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal,, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign Countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, UiS. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents,

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BCI»

Ni

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

FEBRUARY 1 9 8 3
Data Through January
Volume 23, Number 2

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS

AT

Bl
B2
B3
B4

87

CT
C3

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment .
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

36
—
39

74
77
—

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds




for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through April 1, 1985.

BCII




PART IL
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8

AND PRODUCT
GNPand Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNPand National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

,1

48
49

84
87

,

51

89

•.
,.

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

,
,
,.

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

„.
,

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue},
QCD ^nd Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue]
B. Current Adjustment Factors
,
„.
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
,
98
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1983 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators January 1983 issue}
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
106
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
110
Titles and Sources of Series
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamrn, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to in-

Changes in this issue are as follows:

corporate recent find-

1. New seasonal adjustment factors have been computed
for 23 series using the X-ll variant of the Census Method II
seasonal adjustment program. New factors are shown in appendix B for all of these series except series 9, 10, 112,
732c, 733c, and 735c-738c.

ings of economic
research, newiy available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept,

Series
number
5
9
10
13
15
33
72
112
517
525
543
570

Beginning date for
new factors
July 1982
January 1982
January 1981
November 1982
I Q 1979
December 1982
January 1983
January 1983
December 1982
November 1982
December 1982
January 1983

Series

number
580
604
606
614
616
732c
733c
735c
736c
737c
738c

Beginning date for
new factors
January 1983
January 1983
January 1983
April 1982
April 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982
December 1982

comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other ser/es, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

2. The composite indexes of cyclical indicators (series
910, 914-917, 920, 930, and 940) have been revised for the
period 1948 to date to reflect improvements in composition,
historical revisions in source data, and routine updating of
statistical factors. These revisions result from a continuing review of the composite indexes by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis.
Improvements in composition. Several components of the
leading and lagging indexes have been replaced with components
more appropriate for measuring current cyclical changes in the
economy. In the leading index, two new components were added
and two were dropped. New series 99, change in sensitive
materials prices (which includes producer price index components for selected crude and intermediate materials and spot
market price index components for raw industrial materials)
(Continued on page iv.)
The March issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on April 1.



composition,

HI

replaced former series 92, change in sensitive crude materials prices. New series 111, change in credit outstanding (business and consumer borrowing)
replaced series 104, change in total liquid assets. In the lagging index, series 77, ratio of constant-dollar inventories1 to sales, manufacturing and
trade, replaced series 70, manufacturing and trade inventories'in 1972 dollars. In addition, series 62, labor cost per un,it: of output, was recalculated to include in the lagging index the deviations of the actual data from their trend. Series 72, commercial and industrial loans outstanding, was
recalculated to include commercial paper of nonfinancial companies and was replaced in the lagging index by its deflated version, new series 101.
(The deflator is the producer price index for all commodities.) Series 109, average prime rate charged by banks, was split into two segments (19481965 and 1966 to date) in the composite index calculations so that the current period could be standardized more accurately.
The composition of two of the leading indicator subgroup ^indexes was affected also. In series 915, inventory investment and purchasing, the new
change in sensitive materials prices (series 99) replaced the former sensitive prices component (series 92). In series 917, money and financial
flows, the new change in credit outstanding (series 111) replaced total private borrowing (series 110). Series 913, marginal employment adjustments,
has not been revised because key source data are not available1.
Revisions in source data. The composite indexes have beejn revised to incorporate historical revisions in source data for the components.
Updating of statistical factors. The statistical factors used in computing the composite indexes have been recalculated to cover longer time
spans. These weights, standardization factors, and trend factors are shown in appendix G (pp. 108-109).
The diffusion indexes (series 950-952) based on the composite index components have been revised beginning with 1948. Historical data for the
revised composite and diffusion indexes are shown in appendixiC. Current data on the previous basis for the three major'composite indexes are shown
in appendix G (p. 106).
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical
Indicators Division.
3. The series on net business formation (series 12), which was discontinued at the end of 1981 because of the unavailability of two of Its components, has been recomputed for the period 1948 to date. Data for 1948 through 1978 are based on the original components, and data for 1979 to date
are based on two original components {new business incorporations and number of business failures) and newly available public utility information.
Further information concerning this series may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
4. A new series on change in sensitive crude and intermediate materials prices (series 98) is introduced in this issue. This series consists
of month-to-month percent changes in the producer price component of the series from which series 99 is computed. (See item 2, above.)
Further information concerning this series may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
5. The series on new private housing units started (series 28) has been revised for the period 1980 to date to reflect a new seasonal adjustment by the source agency.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics
Division.
6. The series on manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (series 57) has been revised for the period 1967 to date. This revision reflects the incorporation of new sources of data for more recent years and improvements in deflation procedures for the manufacturing and merchant
wholesaler segments.
Series 77 (constant-dollar ratio of manufacturing and jtrade inventories to sales) has been revised over the sane period.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National
Income and Wealth Division.
7. Revised data on U.S. money supply (series 85, 102 ,j and 104-108) art; shown in this issue for the period October 1981 to date. These revisions reflect the incorporation of annual seasonal adjustment and benchmark changes and minor definitional changes by 1the source agency. When
completed, these changes will extend back to 1959. Revised data for the period prior to October 1981 will be shown in a subsequent issue of BCD.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, System, Division of Research
and Statistics, Banking Section,
8. The producer price indexes (series 331-334) have peen revised for the period 1978 to date to reflect the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors by the source agency.
Further information concerning these revisions may be1obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices
and Living Conditions, Division of Industrial Prices and Ppice Indexes.
9. Series 7 and 8 (manufacturers' new orders for durable goods and for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars) and series 36 (change in
inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars) have been revised for the period 1978 to date on the basis of revijsed producer price indexes used
as deflators. (See item 8, above.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be, obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical
Indicators Division.
10. Seasonally adjusted consumer price index data (series 320c and 322) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1967 to date to
reflect the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices
and Living Conditions, Division of Consumer Prices.
NOTE: Series for which CPI (series 320) data are used.as deflators reflect the above revision as follows:
Series 53—1967 to date;
Series 105 and 106—October 1981 to date'; and
Series 341-1 Q 1982 to date.
The revised CPI data for earlier years will he incorporated into series 105, 106, and 341 at a later date.
11. Appendix C contains historical data for series 12, 62, 72, 98, 99, 101, 111, 910, 913-917, 920, 930, 940, and 950-952.




METHOD OF PRESENTATION

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
This report is organized into two major parts. adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
Part 0, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time which contain considerable variation due to the
series which have been found to conform well to number of working or trading days in each month. of expansion and contraction in various economic
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of As used in this report, the term "seasonal processes that show up as major fluctuations in ageconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday gregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these business cycles of historical experience have been
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are the official figures released by the source definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters agencies. However, for the special purposes of this duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
but which do not conform well enough to business report, a number of series not ordinarily published economic systems, conditions, policies, and
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
few exceptions: Four series which are included in seasonally adjusted basis.
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzpart I are also shown in part II to complete the
ing current economic conditions and prospects is
systematic presentation of certain sets of data, MCD Moving Averages
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
Month-to-month changes in a series are often identifies certain economic time series as tending
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro- movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
and defense-related activities, and international priate span over which to observe cyclical indicators have been selected and analyzed by
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) NBER in a series of studies published between
transactions and comparisons.
It is the smallest span of months for which the 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
The ttwo parts are further divided into sections
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
shown iboth in charts and in tables. Most charts
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. staff. The present format and content of part I of
begin with 1956, but those for the composite
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of BCD are based on the results of that study.
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two- panel
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a Section A. Composite Indexes and
format which covers only the period since 1971.
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 Their Components
Except for section F in part It, charts contain
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
shading which indicates periods of recession in
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated acgeneral business activity. The tables contain data
MCD of 1.
cording to six major characteristics: Economic
for only the last few years. The historical data for
The charts in this report generally include significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
the various time series are contained in the 1977
centered MCD moving averages for those series timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
conformity to business expansions and
In addition to the charts and tables described with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
above, each issue contains a summary table which
variation about the moving averages and to provide (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
was developed and used to assess each series by all
observations for the most recent months.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
Reference Turning Dates
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
information of analytical interest. An index appears
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
the series numbers used are for identification Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
purposes onfy and do not reflect precise mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relationships or order. However, atl series NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
the range 1 to 199.
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basts for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
Seasonal Adjustments
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated.
groups and combine those with similar timing
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are weights. Because they use series of historically
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations changed as a result of revisions in important tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
resulting primarily from normal differences in economic time series. The dates shown in this (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
weather conditions and from various institutional publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has of duplication, composite indexes give more
are usually accounted for by the seasonal designated turning points for the 1973-1975 reces- reliable signals over time than do any of the
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday sion and the 1980 recession.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the




1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
x. Economic
\Process
Cyclical X.
Timing
N.

EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real Income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V,,
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES,COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
Investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
< 3 series)
Real money
supply

Consumption
and trade

Backlog of
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(5 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
i

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(u)
(8 series)

(4 series)

Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)

Business
Investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment

Trade
(1 series)

(3 series)

(2 mtes)

Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 *«rto$)
Bank reserves
(2 ssrias)
1 nterest rates
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(2 wrfes)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

1 nterest rates
(4 mles)
Outstanding
debt
(3$»rtos)

Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
{6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
(2 series)
R*al money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 $«ries)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)

Profits
(2 series)

Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and tabor share
(4 series)

Velocity of
money
U series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\

v

Economic
\Process

Cyclical^
Timing
\.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

IV.
III.,
CONSUMPTION, FIXED
CAPITAL
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
INVESTMENT
DELIVERIES
(18 series)
(13 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

Consumption
and trade
(3 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)

Unfilled orders
(1 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)

EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
LAGGING (Lg) J
Comprehensive
INDICATORS
employment
(40 series)
)
(3, series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
( > series)
£

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)
'




Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series an; prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)

In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period can
be determined by inspection of the charts, where the
1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession are
shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference
cycle chronology.

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May f 54, April '58,
February '61, and November 7 0 ) . Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
This section covers 111 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
including the 22 indicators used in the series.
This section also records rates of change for the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 rates of change for the same aggregates are
series at all turns (of the 19,15 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the; change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
This part is divided into six sections which cover
private business. The former include all private
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
tenant or oyvner occupancy. Net purchases of used
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
goods are also included.
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
Government purchases of goods and services
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
labor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefor^ deducted. More detail on U.S.
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
income. The four major components of the gross residents! of the United States. Thus, it measures
national product—personal consumption the factor costs of the goods and services proexpenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving,
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market major expenditure components of GNP
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section 6. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The Important data on price movements include
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these Series are the quarterly price indexes from
personal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably
less personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
Disposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedof personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business product, pata on both levels and percent changes are
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1971.
The' group of series on wages and productivity
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates ,of change for most of these measures.
cluded.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES




Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. international Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with Which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S, business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Ger
many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the cor
responding U.^>. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in ,' the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1971) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data
(Wov.)

-(fi/Jar.)

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.

Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over —
•
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections. ;

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title

Timing
classification

Unit
of
measure

Percent change
Nov.
to
Dec.
1932

Average
1981

i 1982

2dQ
1982

3d Q
1982

4th Q
1982

Nov.
1982

Dec.
1982

Jan.
1983

3d Q
to

Dec.
Jan.
1983

1982

4th Q
1982

3.6
0.6
-1.0

0.7
-2.0
-2.2

2.0
-2.3
-3.3

3dQ

I. CYCLICAL (NDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910. Twelve leading indicators ..
920. Four coincident indicators .
930. Six lagging indicators
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments ...
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

L.L.L

c.c.c

1967=100
do. .

Lg.Lg.Li

do. .

L.L.L
L.L.L
L,L,L
L.LL
L,L,L

do. .

do. .
do. .
do. .

do. .

140.
146.0
122.4

1137.
'136.2
'123.0

136.15
138.
125.

137.5
135.
122.6

140.3
132.2
118.6

140.
132.
118.

141.2
132.0
116.

'93.0
107.
1O0.9
97.9
122.

NA
105.0
97.4
NA
122.9

NA
105.0
97.0
92.8
122.7

NA
104.
93.
123.8

NA
106.
97.5
NA
122.6

N,
106.2
97.5
98.
122.5

NA
107.0
96.6
NA
122.

146,
132.
115,

0.8
-0.2
-1.2

108
98.

0.8
-0 .'
,9
NA
0,3

NA
0.9
1.9
NA
2.4

-0.6
1.4
1.0
0.9

NA
1.9
-0.9
NA
-1.0

2,1
0.
NA
4.5
NA
NA

-o. ;
i
0.
NA
-5.3
NA
NA

-0.3
-0.1
NA
-0.3
NA
NA

125.

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B1. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . . .
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 .
2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 . . .
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)
3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv.4)2 .
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2

L,L,L
L.C.L
L.L.L
L.C.L
U,L
L,Lg,U

Hours
do. ..
Percent. . . .
Thousands.
Percent. . . .
do. ..

39.8
2.8
3.2
446
1.6
1.3

38.9
2.3
NA
578
MA
NA

39.1
2
HA
56
NA
NA

39.0
2.
NA
59
NA
NA

38.9
2.3
NA
599
NA
NA

38.9
2.3
NA
616
NA
NA

38.9
2.3
NA
531
NA
NA

39.
2.
N,
50
NA

NA
13*8
NA
NA

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed2
46. Help-wanted advertising

L,Lg,U
Llg,U

Ratio
1967=100..

0.429
119

0.243
36

0.249

0.211
78

0.198
79

0.195

0.205

0.216

c.oio

169.99
97,030
91,105
25,481

166.13
96,125
89,619
23,882

167.25
96,329
90 ,029
24,179

L65.79
96,192
89,371
23,676

163.98
95,705
88,721
23,098

163.43
95,670
88,750
23,081

164.14
95,682
88,535
22,975

166.0
95,691
88,874
23,113

57.06

57.25

57.01

56.5'

56.57

56.50

6. 4
'

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments.
42, Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
•41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction ..
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2

u.c.c
u,cx
C,C,C
L,C,U

A.r.,bil. hrs.
Thousands.

U,Lg,U

Percent

58.28

56.46

-0.2
-0.5
"0.07

Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Total unemployed (inverted4)
43. Unemployment rate, total ^inverted4)2
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-ratefinv.4)7' .
*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) ,
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4}2 ,

L,Lg,U
L,L9,U
L,Lg,U
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg

Thousands.
Percent. . . .
do. ..
Weeks
Percent. . . .

8,273' 10,678 10,369 11,025 11,8 39 11,906 12,036 11,446
9.7
10.0
7.6»
9.4
10.8
10."
10.7
10.
4.6
3.4!
4.5
4.
5.. 1
5.0
5.2
4.5
17.5
13. 7
15.6
16.1
19.
1:
18.0
17.3
1
4.1
4.2
3.3
4.3
2.1
3.2
4.1
3.0

C.CX

A.r., bil.dol.
. .do. ..

1502.6 1476.0 1478.4 1481.1 1473.9
1242.0 1248.2 1251.7 1248.2 1251.1 1252.4 1257.4 1255.
1069.1 1066.3 1072.7 1064.7 1061.6 1062.3 1066.1 1067.5

do. . .

do. ..

a. 4

0.011 -0.038 -0.013
0.
1.3
-10,3
1.1
0.
0.4
0.6

-0.9
-0.1
-0,,7
-2.1

-1.1
-0.5
-0.7
-2.4

-0.04

-0.2,4

-0.44

-1.1
™q.i
0.2
-4 .0
-0.2

4,9
0.4
0.5
-7.8
0.1

-6.3
-0.6
-0.2
-5.9
-0.3

-7.4
-0.7
-0.4
-8.7
-0.8

P.4
0.4

-0.2
0.1

0.2
-0.3
-C.7

-0.5
0.2
-0.3

-2.6

-2.2

0.6
0.3

-2.2
-4.1
-0.5
-1.4

-1.5

-2.1
NA
-2.3

4.5
4.7
10.9
0.43
1.3
3

-1.7
-2.3
0.4
•C.35
»3.4
6

-2.6
-3.2
-6.7
2.84
-0.6
2

-0.9
"0.5
0.6
-1.1
-0.9

NA
NA
0.9
0.1
0.4

-1.1
-1.1
0.6
0.
••1.2

a.

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. GNP in 1972 dollars
52. Personal income in 1972 dollars
•51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars .
53. Wages and salaries in mining, rnfg., and construction, 1972 dollars
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs. ..
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB2
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA2 . . . .
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB2 .

c.c.c
c.c.c

do. . .

c.c.c

do. ..

230.2

216.2

219.4

213.7

208.9

208.5

208.9

211.6

0.2

1.3

cxx
ccc

1967=100..
do. ..

151.p
140.5
164.8

138.6
124.7
156.2
661.5

139.4
126.1
155.5
663.2

138.2
124.8
156.4
665.1

135.2
119.7
155.6
655.8

134.8
119.3
155.2

135.0
119.4
155.5

136.2
120.9
156.3

'0.1
0.1
0.2

0.9
1.3
0.5

78.4
76
79.'9

69.8
NA
68.9

70.3
71
69.6

69.7
69
68.1

67.6
NA
65.8

do. . .

C,L,L
C,C,C

A.r.,bil.dol.

L.C.U

Percent.

L.C.U

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 do).
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods2
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance2 ©
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars . . . . . . . .
55. Personal consumption expend., autos
58. Index of consumer sentiment ©

L.L.L
L.L.L
L.L.L
L.L.L
L,Lg,U
L.L.L

cxx
c.cx

Bil.dol. .
do.
do.

.. .do.
Bil. dot., EOP
Percent. .

83.24 74.60 75.48 74.23 72.27 70.61 76.59 80.05
37*41 32.29 3:2.77 32.02 30.98 30.25 32.75 34.28
28.11 28.21 31.28
33.12 29.34 29.90 30.03 28.01
3.22
3.65
-0.14 -1.94 -3.03 -3.38 -0.54 -2.10
308.37 285.08 296.87 286.71 285.08 281.86 285.08 288.73
37
33
39
41
40
38
41
45

C.LX
C.L.U
U,L,U
LXX
L.L.L

350.^2 339.74
Bil.dol
. .do. . . . 159. P8 152.02
1967=100...
14 7.9 142.6
Mil. dol
86,566 89,114
....do. . . . 44,910 44,509
A.r., bil.dol.
67,.2
70.7
IQ1966=100
68.0

L.L.L
LrL,L

1967=100...
Number. . . .

34 5.02
154.03
143.5
89,059
44,786
67.8
66.2

341.18
152.30
144.4
89,091
44,236
69.5
66.7

333.68 335.80
149.32 150.26
141.8
141.1
91,439 92,546
4 5,238 45,792
77 „ 5
72,-5
72.1

332.71
NA
149.53
NA
142.0 143.3
91,482 91,575
45,378 45,537

, 8.5
8.3
i 0.4
6.32
i 1.1
-2

71.9

70.4

,-0.3

-2.1

2.5
0*8

-2.2
-2.0
-1.8
2.6
2.3
11.5
8.7

111.1
NA

113.1
NA

-1,7
NA

1.8
NA

-2.4
-2.0

0.1
NA

84. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations




118.6
48,435

113.1
NA

114.6 111.8
6,602 45,686

111.9

113.0
48,474

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators —Continued
Percent change

Timing
classification3

Series title

Unit
of
measure

Average

Nov.
3d Q

1982

4th Q
1982

Nov.

Dec.

to

1982

1982

Dec.

Jan.

2dQ
to
3d Q

3d Q
to
4th Q

1982

2dQ
1982

1983

1982

1982

1982

Dec.

1. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contractsand orders, plant and equipment . . .
*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,
1972 dol
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . . .
27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s — .

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

Bil. dol.
..do. . . .
do. . . .

24.39
14.10
24.04

24.04

23.63

24.06

12.15
20.64

12.13
20.74

11.50
19.83

12.13
20.17

24.84
11.40
20.17

23.97

4.3

-3.5

-1.7

13.00
20.15

11.75
21.12

14.0
-0.1

-9.6
4.8

-5.2

Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol

. .do. . . .

12.39

10.56

10.72

9.88

L,C,U Mil.sq.ft. . .
U,Lg,U Bil. dol
CLg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP

77.72
26.42
92.74

57.38
NA
NA

59.17
19.33
82.82

57.84
18.71
73.82

51.63
NA
NA

C,Lg,Lg A.r., bil. dol.

321.49

319.99

323.22

315.79

315.21

do. . . .
C,Lg,Lg
C,Lg,U 1967=100...
C,Lg,C A.r., bil. dol.

348.59
191.1
172.0

325.26
157.9
165.5

330.81
160.5
166.7

319.59
153.1
163.4

311.87
147.1
160.0

310.90
146.6

315.49
147.5

NA
147.4

1.5
0.6

A.r., thous, .
L,L,L
L.L.L • 1967=100,,.
A.r., bil. dol.
L,L,L

Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment . .
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equip
86. Monresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. . .

5.5
1.7

-4.4

1,087
80.0
44.9

1,061
79.6
40.2

950
74.1
40.1

1,122
79.5
39.5

1,255
98.8
42.5

1,361
96.3

1,263
105.4

1,716
119.4

-7.2
9.4

L,L,L

9.88

11.06

10.58

50.69

49.55

66.89

11.9

-4.3

-2.2

35.0

6.3
-7.8
-2.2
-3.2
-10.9

-10.7
NA
NA

-2.3

-0.2

NA
-0.1

-3.4
-4.6
-2.0

-2.4
-3.9
-2.1

35.9
13.3

18.1
7.3
-1.5

11.9
24.3
7.6

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol.2
*36, Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 .
38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . .
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. -Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5
70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol. s
65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods5
*77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on
order5

do.

L,L,L
LL,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

do.
do.
Bil. dol. .

Lg,Lg,Lg Bit. dol., EOP
do. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg
do. . . .
Lg.Lg.Lg

9.0

-8.8

-4.4

-14.61
-13.8
-2.12

-15.75
-0.3
-2.68

519.39
269,85

505.58
261.40
83.52

512.98
265.18

-18.7

7.8

-22.1

-13.53
-39.3
-1.55

-13.46
-67.1
-1.56

-21.18
-36.6
-1.19

NA
NA
NA

-7.72
30.5
0.37

NA
NA
NA

7.11
10.0
1.00

-4.89
-49.0
0.13

515.40 505.58
266.03 261.40

508.63
262.28

505.58
261.40

NA
NA
NA

-0.6
-0.3
-2.2

NA
NA
NA

0.5
0.3
0.6

-1.9
-1.7
-3.3

0.

85.90

86.40

83.52

85.41

83.52

1.72

87.66
Lg,Lg,Lg Ratio

3.4
-8.64
9.7
-1.68

NA

3.44
36.8
0.10

1.74

1.76

1.75

1.75

1.74
1.68

L,Lg,Lg Bil. dpi., EOP

197.72

0.02

207.39

202.36

197.72

198.91

-0.61
237.4

-0.46
231.1

-0.48
230.4

-0.50
227.4

119.71 114.12

113.82

-2.3

0.22
-1.8

0.15
-2.7

197.72

-0.83
241.7

0.02

-2.4

NA

223.13
36. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*99. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed6)2
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials ©

L.L.L
U,L,L

Percent
1967=100...

-0.58
283.4

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks©

L,L,L

194143=10.

128.04

Profits
16.
18.
79.
80
15.
26.

L.LL
L,L,L
L,C,L
L,C,L
L.L.L
L,LL

A.r., bil. dol,
do. . . ,
do/...
do. . . .
Cents
1977 = 100..

150.9
76.2
109.5
55.5
4.8
98.0

116.1
NA
102.0
NA
NA
96.8

116.3
56.2
100.0
48 f 5
3.7
96.5

119.4
57.1
105.3
50.4
3.5
96.8

L,L,L
L,L,L

A.r., bil. dol.
do. . .

275.2
134.7

NA
NA

263.5
123.3

272.6
128.6

1.305
210.3

1.389
229.4

1.388
230.0

1.392
229.8

'...

and Profit Margins:
Corporate profits after taxes
Corp. profits after taxes, 172 dollars
Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj . . ,
do
in 1972 d o l . . .
Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . .
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm bus

Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net c;ish flow, corporate, 1972 dollars
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp. . . .
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
; .
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income2

Lg,Lg,Lg 1977=100..
Lg.Lg.Lg Dollars. . . .
L.g,Lg,Lg 1967=100..

-0.67
242.5

136.71 138.10

139.37

-0.16
232.1

-0.02
-1.3

144.27

0.34
2.1

3.5

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
97.0

20.1

2.7
1.6
5.3
3.9
0.2
0.3

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.2

3.5
4.3

NA
NA

0.6

2.9
NA
231.2

231.7

230.9

231.2

0.1

Lg.LgXg Percent. . .

0.3
-0.1

NA
0.6

-0.2

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (Ml) 2
102. Change in money supply (M2)2
104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed6)2
105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars
*1Q6. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars

L.L.L
L,C,U
LXX
L,L,L
ULL

Percent.
do.
do.
Bil. dol. .
..do.

0.50
0.79
0.93
197.6
800.7

0.69
0.73
0.85
198.5
813.9

0.36
0.65
0.86
197.2
807.9

0.72
0.93
0.98
196.6
814.4

1.08
0.72
0.73
202.0
829.1

1.13
0.79
0.73
202.0
828.5

0.91
0.73
0.66
204.4
836.8

0.84
2.47
0.64
205.7
856.0

-0.22
^0.06
-0.07
1.2
1.0

-0.07
1.74
-0.02
0.6
2.3

0.36
0.28
0.12
-0.3
' 0.8

0.36
-0.21
-0.25
2.7
1.8

Velocity of Mcmey:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml) 2
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2 .

C,C,C
C,Lg,C

Ratio

6.839
1.388

6.677
1.369

6.742
1.380

6.734
1.364

6.546
1.351

1.353

1.347

1.315

-0.006

-0.032

-0.016

0.188
•0.613

3 9.91
19.40
20.87
7.4

-5.02
22.64
11.55
1.4

0.73
45.22
15.69
4.6

-5.52
18.34
6.91
0.4

-29.31
-11.04
17.56
-5.1

-9.05 -23.51
-25.63 - 2 1 . 1 0
30.28
26.30
-5.4
-5.5

NA
45.18
NA
NA

-14.46
4.53
-3.98
-0.1

-6.25
-26.88
-8.78
-4.2

23.79
29:38
10.65
-5.5

Credit
33.
112.
113.
•111.

Flows:
Change in mortgage debt2
Change n business loans2
Change in consumer installment credit2 .
Change in credit outstanding1




L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L.L.L

do. , .

A.r,, bil. dol.
do. . . .
A.r., Percent.

NA
66.28
NA
NA

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Timing
classification

Series title

Parcant change

Unit
Average

of
measure

2<JQ

3dQ

to

to

to

Dec.
198?.

Jan.

3dQ
1982

to
4th Q
1982

Nov.

2dQ

3d Q

1982

1981

4th Q
1982

Nov.
1982

Dec.
1982

Jan.
1933

1983

I, C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B7. Money and C r e d i t - C o n .
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v . 4 ) © . . . .
39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv. 4 ) 2 s , .

L,L,L
L.L.L

Mil.dol..
Percent, EOP

579.60
2.37

\

NA
2,18

2.16

NA
2.1

NA
2.18

NA
2.2

NA
2.18

NA
NA

-0.03

0.01

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve 1 ©....

L.U.U

Ug.U

Mil.dol. . . .
do. . . .

-1,051
1,359

1
-692
1,052

-982
1,29

-390
718

-14
577

-17
579

-19
697

-243
-197

»592
-579

-248
-141

16.38
14.08
12.87
15.48
11.33
16.31
19.56
18.87

,12.26

14.51
12.36
12.9
15.65
12.33
16.41
17.11
16.50

11.01
9.71
12.20
14.72
11.39
14.98
13.2
14.72

9.29
7.93
10.34
12.22
9.90
12.8
11.26
11.96

9,20
8.04
10.18
11.89
10.06
12.82

8.95
8.01
10.33
12.15
9.96
12,80

-0.02

-0.27
-0.20
0.04
-0.11
-0.46
0.07

- 3 50

10.3
12.04
9.
12,87

11.85

11.50

11.00

-0.35

338.6: 332.51 334.24 338.63 336.44 338,63
266.5! 268.29 27 2.64 268.96 268.37 263,81 266.6'
106.0! 107.00 108.25 106.68 106.41 104,5 105.8'
' 12.9: 12.98 12.86 12.81 12.79 12.84

0.7
-1.'?
-1-8
O.Q5

Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds r a t e a ©
114. Treasury bill rate 2 ©
115. Treasury bond yields 2 ©
116. Corporate bond yields 2 ©
117. Municipal bond yields 2 ©
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2 ®
*109. Average prime rats charged by banks 2 ©

LLg.Lg
C,Lg,lg
C,Lg,Lg
Ls.Lfl.Lg
U,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg.Lg.Lg
i.g,ig,Lg

Percent. .
do.
dD.
do.
do.
do.
do.

Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit9
72. Commercial and industrial loans
•101, Commercial and industrial loans, 1972 dollars
•95, Ratio, consumer install, credit to pars, income2

Lg,Lg.Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lcj,Lg,Lg
LgXg.Lg

Bil.dol., EOP
Bil.dol. .

do.

do. . . .
Percent

327.08
227.09
92.15
13.21

'11.66
'15.30
14.69
'14.86

NA

8.6
7.8

hJA

NA

-0.50

-2,65
-0.74
-0.93
-0.94
-1.43
-3.84
-1.78

,72
,78
.86
.50
,49
• 11
-2,01
-2,.76

NA
1.1
1.3
NA

G.,c>
1.6
1.2
-0.12

-1.3
-1.5
-0.05

1.3

I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B. Prices, Wagos, and Productivity
B 1 . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
331.
332.
333.
334.

1972=100..
1967-100..
Percent. . . .
1967=100..

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer prices (CPI), all items ©
Change in CPI, all items, S/A2
CPI, food
Producer prices (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

.

195.5
272.4
0.7
274.6

207.2
289.
0.
285.

2 0 6 ,,0
287,, 3
0.8
285.3

208.5
292,8
0.3
287.3

210.4
293.4
0.
288.1

0.
288.2

292.4
-0.3
288.1

293,
0.
288.

-0,4
-0.3
CK

..
..
..
..
..

293.4
329.0
306.0
264.3
271.3

299.
319.
310.
279.6
280.9

298.6
324.3
308.9
277.9
278.1

300.0
318.9
310.5
281.6
282.4

300.3
316.1
311.5
283.5
285.6

300.4
317.4
311.9
283.3
286.1

300.6
316.
311.8
284.6
286.5

300.0
315.6
310.8
284.3
282.6

0.1
-0.3
0.
0'.5

1977=100..

138.9,

148.4

147.4

149.6

151.4

151.

152.1

152.

0.6

0.4

1.5

1.2

do. . .

92.6,'
143.2
9 5-4
100.7

93
153.6
96.4
101.0

93.4
152.3
96.4
100.3

93.0
154
96
101.2

93,7
156 . 9
,
96 , 9
,
102.2

94.3

94,

C|.9

0.4

-0.4
1,6

0.8
1.4
0.8
1.0

do.
do.
do.
do.
do.

293.6

1.2

-o!s
0.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-1.4

0.5
-1.7
0.5
1.3

0.9
0.2
-0.
0

0.1
-0.9
1.1

8 2 . Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus..
346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business . .
370. Output per hour, private business sector , . . .

do. .,
do. ..
do. . .

93.5

-0,3
0,,9

C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.

Total civilian labor force
Total civilian nmployment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years snd over..
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of atje

Millions . . .
do. . .
Thousands.
do. . .
do. . .

do. ..

108 .6^ 110.20 110.09 110.63 110.97 111.04 111,13 110.55
100.40 99,53 99.72 99.60 99.14 99.14 99,09 99.10
8,273 10,678 10,369 11,025 11,839 11,906 12,036 11,446
3,61$ 5,089 4,368 5,320 5,829 5,865 5,909 5,59
2,895 3,613 3,554 3,684 3,961 3,989 4,071 3,963
1,977
1,947
2,020 2,049 2,052 2,056 1,886
1,763

1.1
p.8
2.1
0.2

-0.5
0.
-4.9
-5.3
-2,7
-8.3

-0,2
0.2
«0.5

-0,6
-0.2
-0.4

0.1

-0.1

0.5
-0.1
6.3
9.3

0.3
-0.5
7.4
9.6
7.5
1.4

i

Labor Force Participation Rates:
• 451. Males,.20yearsandover2
452. Females, 20 years and o v e r 1 . . .
453. 80th sexes, 16-19 years of age2

Percent. . . .
do. . .
do. . .

79.6
52.J
55.,4

78.7
52.7
54.1

78.8
52.7
54.1

78.8
53.0
53.9

78.8
52.9
54.1

617.0 613,
736.6 769,
•119.& •156,
434.3 440.
402.2 408,
32.1
32.3

NA
816.2
NA
NA
414.3
MA

78.9
52.9
54.4

78.7
53.1
53.9

78.1
52.9
53.5

0.3
-0. 2

0.
-0.1
0.2

0. Government Activities
D 1 . Receipts and Expenditure:;
501.
502.
500,
511,
512.
510.

Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
Federal Government surplus or deficit2 ,
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
State and local govt. surplus or deficit2 .,

A.r., bil.dol.
do, . .

...do. ..
do. . .

do. ..
do. . .

628.12 614.5
6 88 .2 762.7
-60.0 -148.2
416.8
437.1
385.'0 405.3
31.7
31.9

-0.5
4.5
-36.4
1.4
1.5
0.2

NA
6.0
NA

NA
1.5
NA

0 2 . Defense Indicators
517.
525.
548.
564.

Defense Department obligations . . . . . .
Military prime contract awards
New orders, defense products
National defense purchases

Mil.dol....
do. . . ,

8,694 17,501 19,824
1,490 9,278 10,977
5,46.2 4,778 7,074
176.2 182.7 189.4

8,599 24,396
0,209 17,298
5,091 11.309

A.r., bil.dol.

15,945 18,908
8,065 10,718
4,855 6,066
153:7
178.6

Mil.dol.
. . .do.
. . .do.
. . .do.
. . .do.
. . .do.

19,456 17,714
3,6,08 3,053
4,4,56 4,007
21,7,51 20,343
6,319 4,964
2,li9O 2,442

8,294 17,637 16,242
3,420 2,733 2,700
4,033 4,119 3,745
9,752 21,232 19,632
4,310 5,419 4,961
2,600 2,540 2,254

5,693 16,335
2,783 2,637
3,686 3,719
8,936 18,865
4,757 4,694
2,130 2,189

do. ..,

NA

NA
8,807

!31.2
69.4
122.1

NA
-22.1

-6.4
•19.3
•12.5
3.7

13.3
18.3
48.1
3.7

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-3.6
•20,1
2.1
7.5
25.7
-2,3

-7.9
-1.2
-9.1
-7.5

E. U.S. International Transactions
E1. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, total except military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts




...
..
...
...
..,
...

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

,-1.3
, 2.8

-1U3

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1980

3dQ
1981

1981

4th Q
1981

1st Q
1982

1982

2dQ
1982

3dQ
1982

4th Q
1982

1st Q
to
2dQ
1982

2dQ
to
3d Q

3dQ
to
4th Q
1982

1982

tl. O T H E R I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MIEASURES-Con.
E:,2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
618.
620.
622.
651.
652.
668.
669,
667.

Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investment in the US
Exports oi goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on goods and services2

. .do..
..do.
. .do.
. .do.
, .do.
..do.
..do.

56,059
62,394
-6,334
18,171
10,694
85,526
83,451
2,074

59,064 52,789 57,694 57,593 55,607 55, 002 52,318 48,228
66,036 61,817 65,539 66,778 61,544
764 64,826 60,134
-6,972 -9,028 -7,845 -9,185 -5,937
762' 12,508 11,906
21,486
562 21,880
NA 22,048 21,727 20,890
NA
13,227
874 14,462
NA 13,865 13,198 14,029
NA
93,223
266 88,058
NA 92,965 92,259 90,193
NA
90,454
295 90,632
NA 90,406 91,316 87,070
NA
2,770
943
3,123
971 -2,574
NA 2,559
NA

-4.9
-1.1
-1.3
6.7
175
,746
8.0
-3.0
6.0
-2.8
1.2
-3.5
0.3
3.8
848 -6,545

-7.8
-7.2
602
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

618
620
622
651
652
668
669
667

A.r., bil.dol.
do..
. .do. .
do..
do..
A.r., dollars.
do..

1474.0
2633.1
1479.0
1824.1
1018.0
6,475
4,472

1502.6
2937.7
1493.7
2029.1
1043.1
6,537
4,538

1473.9
3101.4
1492.6
2227.1
1060.7
6,328
4,554

0.5
1.7
-0.2
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.6

0.2
1.4
-0.3
2.2
0.3
-0.1
0,1

-0.5
0.4
1.0
1.3
0,2
-0.7
0,

50
200
213
224
225
217
227

A.r., bil.dol.
do..
.......do..
..do..
. .do.
..do.,
. .do.
..do.

947.6
957.0
930.5
951.4
949.1
943.4
955.0
956.3 967
140.0
137.1
138.7
142.2
137.5
138.3
142.6
134.1
136.4
355.8
362.4
365.0
363.0
362.2
364.5 365.9
367.5
363.1
437.6
445.2
453.3
446.2
449.5
452.2
457
454.0
446.2
1667.2 1843.2 1971.3 1868.8 1884
1919.4 1947.8 1986.3 2031
214.3
234.6
242.5
241.2
229.6
237.9
240.7
251
240.3
670.4
734.5 762.0
746.5 749.1 755.0 768.4
741.3
775
782.5
874.1 966.8
908.3 932.4
886.3
952.1 977.6 1005.0

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.5
1.2
0.8
2.1

0.1
-1.4
0.4
0.4
2.0
-0.2
1.8
2.7

1.2
4.5
0,4
0.7
2.3
4.5
0.9
2.8

231
233
238
239
230
232
236
237

A. National Income and Product
A 1 . G N P and Personal Income
50.
200.
213.
224.
225.
217.
227.

GNP in 1972 dollars
GNPin current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . . .
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNPin 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 d o l . . .

1476.0
3057.6
1484,8
2173.4
1055.2
6,361
4,547

1510.4
2980.9
1493.9
2060.0
1048.8
6,563
4,557

1490.1
3003.2
1485.3
2101.4
1051.9
6,458
4,559

1470.7
2995.5
1486.1
2117.1
1046.9
6,360
4,527

1478.4
3045.2
1482.7
2151.5
1054.8
6,380
4,552

1481.1
3088.2
1477.8
2198.1
1058.3
6,375
4,555

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
231.
233.
238.
239.
230.
232.
236.
237.

Total, 1972 dollars
(Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars ..
Services, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars.
Services, current dollars
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

241.
243.
30.
240.
242.
245.

Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2
Total, current dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars . . .
Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol. 2

. .do..
. .do..
. .do..
. .do..
. .do. .
. .do. .

208.4
213.3
-5.0
402.3
412.4
-10.0

225.8
216.9
9.0
471.5
451.1
20.5

197.0
205.7
-8.8
420.5
443.3
-22.8

233.4
216.9
16.5
486.0
454.2
31.8

218.9
214.1
4.8
468.9
455.7
13,2

195.4
210.8
-15.4
414,8
450.4
-35.6

202,
206,
-4,
431,
447,
-16.2

206.3
202.9
3.4
443.3
438.6
4.7

183.8
202.6
-18.7
392.4
436.6
-44.2

3.5
-1.9
11.0
4.0
-0.6
19.4

2.0
-1.8
7.8
2.7
-2.0
20.9

-10.9
-0.1
-22.1
-11.5
-0.5
-48.9

241
243
30
240
242
245

..do
..do
..do
..do
..do
..do

284.6
106.5
178.1
538.4
197.2
341.2

287.1
110.4
176.7
596.9
228.9
368.0

291.2
116.2
175.0
647.3
257.7
389.6

286.4
110.7
175.7
600.2
230.0
370.1

291.3
116.0
175.3
626.3
250
375.7

289.2
114.4
174,9
630.1
249.7
380.4

285.3
110.3
175.0
630.9
244.3
386.6

291.1
116.2
174.9
651.7
259.0
392.7

299.2
124.1
175.1
676
277.9
398.9

-1.3
-3.6
0.1
0.1
-2.2
1.6

2.0
5.3
-0.1
3.3
6.0
1.6

2.8
6.8
0.1
3.8
7.3
1.6

261
263
267
260
262
266

..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

159.2
108.6
50.6
339.2
314.0
25.2

158.5
116.4
42.0
367.3
341.3
26.1

147.3
116.4
30.9
349.2
330
18.5

157.8
118.7
39.2
367.2
341
25.9

156.9
120.4
36.5
367.9
344.4
23.5

151.7
114.7
36.9
359.9
328.6
31.3

154.4
118.7
35.7
365.8
330.9
34.9

147.5
120.0
27.5
349.5
342.5
6.9

135.5
112.2
23
321.5
320.7
0.8

1.8
3.5
-1.2
1.6
0.7
3.6

-4.5
1.1
-8.2
-4.5
3.5
-28.0

-8.1
-6.5
-4.2
-8.0
-6.4
-6.1

256
257
255
252
253
250

NA
2117.1 2352.5 2436.6 2387.3 2404.5 2396.9 2425.2 2455.6
1598.6 1767.6 1856.4 1789.1 1813.4 1830.8 1850.7 1868.3 1875.9
129.3
120.4
127.5
124.1
116.4
117.3
116.3
124.7
118.4
160.5
183.9
157.1
155.4
181.6
190.6
166.2
NA
193.1
33.9
34.1
33.9
34.2
32.9
33.9
33.6
34.6
33.6
266.4
265.2
258.7
187.7
235.7
244.0
267.5
268,1
249.5

1.2
1.1
0.8
-1.1
0,9
3.4

1.3
1.0
0.9
6.9
1.2
0.2

NA
0.4
9.2
NA
-2.0
-0.6

220
280
282
286
284
288

3.0
1.1
3.7
3.2
0.1

-4.3
2.5
5.3
-36.2
0.2

NA
NA
-10.9
NA
-0.8

290
295
292
298
293

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
261.
263.
267,
260.
262.
266.

Total, 1972 dollars
Fnderai Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
State and local governments, current dollars . . .
A5. Foreign Trade

256.
257.
255.
252.
253.
250.

Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars ..
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . .
Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol. 2 . . .
Exports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Imports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Net exports of goods and serv., current dol. 2 .

A6. National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
286.
284.
288.

National income
Cofnpsnso'
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj . .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj . .
Nat interest

290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving (private and govt.) .
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit2 .
Personal saving rate2

..do
..do
..do
. .do
. .do
..do

A7. Saving
..do.
..do.
..do.
do.
Percent . . .

406.2
332.1
106.2
-33.2
5.8

477.5 414.5
NA
374.5
142.7
130.2
- 2 8 . 2 -116.4
6.6
6.4

490,0
379.1
134.4
-24.5
6.5

476.3
389.1
158.6
-72.5
7.5

428.8
380.3
139.1
-90.7
6.6

441.5
384.6
144.3
-87.5
6.7

422.4
394.2
152.0
-123.7
6.9

NA
NA
135.5
NA
6.1

NOTE: Serial are Mfliortally adjusted except tor those indicated by <S>, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unlen otherwise specified. For complete sories titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCO. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP • end of period. A.r. - annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted {used for special emphasis). IVA - inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA * national income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have bean rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCO. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
The three part timing code indicates the timing classification of the varies at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L * leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.
* Inverted saries. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
s
£nd-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes
(Nov.)(0(l)
P

(July)(Wlay)
T

[Index; 1967^100

910. Index of 12 leading indicators
j (series 1,"5, 8,12y 19/20,29, 32, 36,99,106, Ul>

1920. Index of 4 roughly coincident M o t o r s

lo

930. Wex of 6 lagging M c a t o L

(Series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109)

f

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) ih months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10



FEBRUARY 1983

BCII

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
(Notf.)COct.)
P T

(July) (May)
P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)
P T

(Dec.)(Wov.)
f T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan.)Ouly)
P T

913. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1,2T 3, 5)

914. Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29)

915JJ Inventory Vestment and purchasing (series 8,32, 36*

^
-v 1

/
/

V/
V

i

916. Profitabity (series 19,26,80)

917. Money and financial fUfrs (series 104,106, 111)

. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

1948 49 50
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( —) and lags { + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

BCII FEBRUARY 1983



11

CYCLICAL
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
)
P

T:

(ApO(Fei).)

[Gn.tj$n\\i

(Nov.) (Mar.)

P T

1 . Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hoorjj)

3tt :i-i

.. . , i J 5 - J v e r j f j weekly initial claims, State unempto|rrtent insuranc^
" T ^"(tfibwands--inverted scale) rry

8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars

"Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
deliveries (percent)
nT7

Ml-

140I3v-

12. Nat business formation (index: 1967-100)

110-

12-

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,

6-

Current data for these series are shown oin pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.

12



FEBRUARY 1983

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
(Nov.)(Oct.)
T

(JulyXMay)

P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Apr.)CFeb.)
F

(Jan.) (July)
T

9.; New building permits, private housing

36, tm change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, "smoothed1" (anifiTiratcT, * bKl" dol.")

99.;! Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

l | l . Qharige |n Credit outstanding—business and consumer
b l
(aim. rate,
^ i f l

19. 'Stock ^ces, 500 common ^tocks
'
(index;! 194J-43-|0) r~ J — L -

Mongy||supply^M2-in 1972 dollars (bil. ddl.)

1948 49 §0 §1
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

IHCII

FEBRUARY 1983




1
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov.XOet.)
P T

(Ju!y)(May)

;A«g.)(Apr.)

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)

U '

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
if

! ill i

41. HployMs on nonagricultural payrolls (pjitms)

51. Personal income less transfer
1972 dollars (ann. rate, biT

47. Industrial product* total (index: J M 7 - 1 0 0 )

/

57. Manufacturing: and trMl sales,
1972 dollars (bll.

1948 49

5©

51

B2

53

M

5S

Sg B7

5S

§9

SO 61

62

S3

©4

6S

ii

67

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14



FEBRUARY 1983

KCII

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P T

(July) (May)
p r

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T

(Aug.)(Apr.) (i
p T

P T

(Wov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

~[ 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
1

g

'

-

i

L

• • •

i

'

- ^

I

77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales
;
and trade (ratio)

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data
as pfercefit of trend (percent) i L g L L

109.

Average prime rate charged by banks, (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars (bl. dol.)

installment credit to personal income

AAUL

I

JJ

I

i L

76 77 7B 79 80 81 831983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

I t C I I FEBRUARY 1983



1
5

CYCLICAL BNDIOATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment

Employm^'i Adjustments!
1.

.-£'!:

•|-;

Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

2 1 . Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

#

2.

Accession rate, mumufacturing (per 106 employees)

. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance

LXl

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 106 employees—inverted scale) |L,L1

4.

Quit rate, manufacturing (p*

100 employees)

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .

1
6



FEBRUARY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
if

lf~~

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
'

(Dec.) (Nov.)
T

46.

42.

Employee-hours in nonagricultural
(ann. rate, biL hours

Persons engaged in nonagricuitural acti

41.

4Q.

09

SO

Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
of persons unemplojeg^(rajo)

Help-wanted advertising (index:

48.

iS

(Jan.) (July)
PT

' ' I ! ' "

60.

1956 57

(Nov.) (Mrr)
T

Employees on nona icultural payrolls (millions)

Employees in ^oods-producing in^stries—rnj^i
manufacturing, construction (millions)

61

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.

IMJI

FEBRUARY 1983




17

CYCLICAL INDGCATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.
PI

tio, civilian employment to total population of workhg age (percent)

ICorpfhensive Un

37. Number unemployed, total ( r r * K r c - i n verted scale)

43. Unemployment rate, total (p#r««nt—inverted scale)

45, Average weekly insured unemplogpint rate (percent-Averted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment ^iiks—inverted scale)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

19S6 97

58

59

60

61

62

S3

S4

6§

V/f)

$•>

til

1.12

1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18



FEBRUARY 1983

BCI»

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T

(Nov.)

(Apr.) (Fat)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
PT

Corffljhensive Output and Income 1

50.

52.

GNP in 1972 !do4tatst Q (ann. rate, bti. ctol.)

Personal income

51.

ty|ff2

dollars (ann, ratef b | dol.)

Personal incorne less transfer

(ann. ra*e, b f e » )

fe

53. Wages and salaries in mining, manprtifing, and
ton$tructiorii||972 dollars ( a n n j | r * , p . dol.)

260240 220200 «
180160140-

67

1956 57

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 7S

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 63,

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1983




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart 6 2 . Production and Income—Continued

ndustrial Production ii
47. Industrial production, total (indjtx: 1967=JJJQ
CXX

74. Industrial production,
(index: 1967=100)

73, Industrial production, durable
(index: 1^?-100)

49. Value of gwxls output in 1972 d^ars, Q

83.

| Capacity Utilization I !|

82.

Rate of capacHy utilization, manufacturing (BEA)r Q (percent)

Kate pf capacity u t i l i z ^ i manufacturing ( W ) i f

(percent)

84. Rate of capacity utrirtftMon, materials, Q

8070*
60tit

S52

<B3

d

7B

JS

M ' ?9

III)

&l

H2 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64,

20



FEBRUARY 1983

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

10090«
SO"

6. New orders, durable good* industries,
current dollars (bil.;dol.)| • j

706050-

New orders, durable goods industriesr 3U2-dollars, , „

40-

30-

45-

8. New orders for consume goods and_mat§
\ in 1972 dollars (bil.jftl)
L

40353025-J

25: Change in unfilled orders, dabble goods industriqfr;t;Vil
( b | dol.; MCD moving a v ^ l
+4-

LLL

+ 20-2-4380340300260220-

Industries

'• •]!

"m

180140-

100-

60 J

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving sloWer deliven^i :||>ercent) _

{

100755025-

A.:. •••.. '. . u u d t -

1956 57

58

§9

6©

61

§2

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1983




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

J

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.)

(Dec.) (Mew.)
P
T

(Mar.)
38U"
340-

ICjimptionandMel

300-j
2f,0V0-

mo J
56.

Manufacturing and trade sales' in current dollars -— /
(IjiLdo!.)

'
UP"

57. Manufacturing and trade sales
in 19^1 dollars (bil. dot.)

10! J
171 T
161 151'Un-

J

6 54.

Sales of retail stor#%ciikent dollars

ell
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

55. Person3*,|Wiumption expenmtures,
a u t o m o p l l (ann. rate, bi. dol,)

1956 S7

1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22



FEBRUARY 1983

RCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
n
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Apr,) (Fob.)
p

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

F

(Jan.) (July)
P

I

[Formation of Business Enterprises]
12. Net business formation (index: 1967-100)
120100-

13. New business incorporations (thousands) \
30-

[Business Investment Commitments 1
IS*

20. Contracts and orders for plant and
! in 1972 dollarsUbil. Idol.) , \ i i

10. C a p e t s and orders fotj plattf, and equipment
i n l « f e n t dollars (bil. dol.) F I T

27. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense. in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
i
I
,
!
ii
'

10-

no7060-

;

1 Construction contracts. commeblt! and industrial b u l i d t e j
(mil. sq| ft. qf floor area; MCD pfyjng avg.—6-termp

40-

30-

1996
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1983




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

InvestmeBMymmitments—Con.

97, Backlog of capital appropriate, manufacturing, Q
(bidd.)
— —

11. New capital approprmfeis, manufacturing,
Q ( H . dpi.)

I Bufliss Investmeflf^Expenditures

69. Machinery and equipment sales M business
construction expenditures ( a n 4 | ™ , biL dot.)

jal production, bujjijfe equipment
; 1967 - 1 0 0 ) mmWW~~

19S6 S7

§8

5i

iCS

il

Sg

§3

§4

65

1*133

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24



FEBRUARY 1983

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dee.) (Won.)
P
T

(Apr.)(Fgb.)
P T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

1 Bus&jfss Irtivestrrient gbcpenditures^— Con,
Nonresidents fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (ann.
120 «

1 Residential Construction Comrnrtrtients and Investment |
;ru>£fK>n
28. New private housing urRs started, total (annj rate.

29. New building permits, private dousing units (index;

89. Residential fixed
(ann. rate, bil.

19SS

S7

SS

it

Current data for these series are shown on page 67

BCII

FEBRUARY 1983




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

Invtfigry Investmegp
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
IXX

36. N^t change in inventories on tan* and on order, 1972 Molars
(ann. rate, bil. doL; moving avg t —4-term 1 ) ft

| 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade Inventories
(ann. rate, bil. doL; MCD moving avg.—6-temT)

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (bil. doL; MCD moving avg.—4|tom) I, •",)

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
'

26



FEBRUARY 1983

KCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
?
1

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

71. Book value, manufacturing and
: current dollars (bil. dol)
ent
(bil dol.)
|

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bil.

fHIIt

65. Book value of
of finished goods

77, Ratio, constant-dollar inventories io sales, manufac
and; trade; (ratio) I LgyLgtLg

78i Stocks of materials and supplies on hmi and on order, A
manufacturing (bil. dol.) •
>^»r+*«
h^

82 1983

1956 57
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1983




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6.

Prices, Costs, and Profits

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nev.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive materials
i

(pefcent; MCD moving avg.—6-teimX

^_I_LJ^A

L
i i^ifl

99.

Change in sensitive rmaterials

pffc**

(percent; moving

'-Mm
li'••-'•

Jk

••V'ii

AJ*J*
••:
!

:

[i

•'•

-2.

M

i ft

p

Iff1

A/If'

i^

-•-p
I

•:

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials2 (indft;

!

It
• . ) . ' !

..."•

w

A=^

220-

osxn - ^

rw
iu

V

30Stock prices, 500 common stodif^ifidex: 1941*43 =«;
60-

180-

=
18.

Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dojars, Q
!

; (anri: rate. bil. <tel.)J

fTTTl

!

^

M
:•;««•

^
8tt-

16.

Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. doL)

i, , • ; i;

1956 57 S8 59 60 ©1 62 63 g4 65 iS 67 63 ®§ ?0 11 72 7$ 7® 7B 70 71 7$ IM ftO 8 1
'
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be rsprocluced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
'

28



*:i.i 19iS3

FEBRUARY 1983

ItCII

CYCLICAL
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
T

(Nov.)
f

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
T

P r o i i a n d Profit Martins—Con.
80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
1972 dollars, Q (ami. rate, bil. N .

79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
Current dollars, Q (arm. rate, :b§. dot.) rrTrr

81. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and
capital e ^ m p t i o n
income, Q (percent)

(after taxes) to total corporate domestic
vilib, Q VPOTWIH

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,! ai manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)

26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm busmiss sector, Q (index: 1977=100)

35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bit. doh)
ITTT

34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dot,)

. n ii i l

1936 57

§8

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

IN:

FEBRUARY 1983




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
?

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

j

T

P

J[

(Nov.)

T

(Wlar.)

P

' 1

s

179-

lUntljbor Costs pjljlabor Share]
• TIT' r — — — r >-

160-

m

litO140 ••

no-

63. Unit labor cost, private business sector, Q
(index: 1 9 7 7 - 1 0 0 ) |
j j '

8 H,JI

l.
1

r
i:

m

s

i:
j

S|. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product
(1972 doHars), nonfinancial corporations, Q (dfttiff)

62. Labor cost per unit of output/manufactui^

64, Compensation of employees as a percent ofratttenaiincome,
r
Q (Percent)
[TTiTTTI
^
yf

#\

/ii-

m
• # •

1996

57

B8

59

©0

SI

S2

S3

64

65

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

T4 • ?

Hi

\& 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



FEBRUARY 1983

ItOI

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Jan.) (July)
PT

85.

Change in money supply M l
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

i k Mi fif

102:

Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

104:

Change in total liquid assets (percent; moving avg.—4-term1)

105.

Money supply—Ml—in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

106.

Money s u p p l y - M 2 - i n 1972 dollars (bil. dot.)

107.

Ratio, GNP to \Mtoy supply M l , Q (fatio)

fcxx"

|Vel<xjjty of Money j
108,

_ _j

^^

Ratio, personal Income to money supply M2 (ratio)

s_.^C^N£yTT."....»

82 1983
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .

ItOII

FEBRUARY 1983




31

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Dec.) ( t o )

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

T

P

(fJoy.}

par.)

I

[Credit; flows]
33.

'pi
'I

Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, by.

112. Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bil. dot.;
jj
MCD moving ayg.—6-term) I J H I
j U . . — . . ._.- 3 .~ji

113.

(
j ^ _ .

»

Change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate,'l)tl."dor.)

111. Change in credit outstanding—business and consumar
borrovyt^ (ann, rate, percent)

110.

Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

ILLLI

Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 72.

32



FEBRUARY 1983

BCII

B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Jan.) (July)
P T

I Credit Difficulties 1 j|
14.

39.

Current liabilities of business failures (mil. do)
inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

Delinquency rate, 30 days and over , consumer installment
(percent—inverted scale)
L

93.

94.

Free reserves (bil. doK—inverted scale)

Member bank borrowing from
the Federal Reserve (bit. dot.)

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

FEBRUARY 1983




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

114. ; fn$$ury bill! rate
{pirtent) f?

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

118. Secondary markeyjids on FHA mortgai|g^ percent)

lUw-/-

117. Municipal bond yMds (percent)

195© 57

58

59

60

61

Sg

S3

S4

S5

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34



FEBRUARY X983

IMJI

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T
• \r~

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
•' "

;i

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
T

"if

67. Bank rates on shor^-t
fiiTTJ

109. Average prime file charged by banks (percent)

72. Commercial and
; dollars (bi. doL)

trial {pans outstanding in current

100-

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dolars
6016-

Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)
14-

12-

10-

87

m

69

70

71

72

73

74

7S

76

17

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

KCII

FEBRUARY 1983




35

C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
(Dee.) {Wsy.
P
T

| j Percyt

950. Twelve leading indicator componertts (6-mo. s p a n — , h m .

^wm

59^

0-

95L Four roughly coincident indicator compwwts (6-mo. $pan-«*vl*mo. span-—)
IDO-i

952. Six lagging indicator components (6*m®. s p a n — , 1-molOfi-

W l . Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing- 20 industries (t«Jflto. s p a n — , 1-mo. span

« VWH W
§82.

Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—51-ir#s (percent

ltmo. span—, 1-mo. span

HD-

Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172*p6 industries ( 6 - ^ i p i ^ , 1-mo. span—LCO-i

9*1
m

¥:B

80

81

.% 1.1)83

Current data far these series are shown on page 74.

36



FEBRUARY 1983

KCII

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
PI

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

Sjj4. New orders, durable goods industries—34-35 incjqstries

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

pPercent rising]

«•—, 1-mo. span-—Y

200"!

50-

• $jj5. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q mvtog avg.»~, 1-Q span

)

^
90^

70-

50-

966.

Industrial production—24 incte&Ies (6-mo. span-**, l*fno. span-^—)
100-

so-

0-

$m* Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo. spaft*—, 1-mo. s p a n - t - )
100-

so-

0-

! 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—49-82 l^jtostries (9-mo. span-**; 1-mo. span-—)
100-

50-

0-

960. Net profits, manufacturing^atmit 600 companies1 (%*q span)
so795030-

7?

1956 57

J8

79

80

SI

82 1983

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

MAP

FEBRUARY 1983




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion
(Nov.)
P

Indexes—Continued

(Mar.)
T

'.)

(Jan.)Ouly)
P T

Actui
~ ~
A n t i c i p a t e d •••••••

(Mar.)

(I'M

Mi'H^

| Percent rising

970l Business expenditures for new pint and
4ppment—22 industries (1-Q $pan)
I expenditures
974. Number $( wployees, manufacturing
i

60 «

1

50'

in

r

40
Jin) 1

975. Level O'f ittntories, manufacturing and Ifda

70

•

^!\
\

. vr
\

SO

/

60H
50-

4C^S

97 j ^ l t o j orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

976. SefeiJ prtces, manufacturing (4-Q sfHw)

100 <

Si

L—......

911'
80-

•v

*

•

•

'

•

972. i ^ profits, manufacturing and tr (4-Q span)1
iite

:
•iii
1

in *
VI.

'SI

1

7(1 -

^

977. Setl^g prices, wholesale trade (4-Q
100
SO

80i

80*70

I

59-

973, p i sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

1971 72

73

74

75

76 ?;

i;o*J

978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)§

72

73

74

75

;n

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without Written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about
1,400 business executives.
i
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38



FEBRUARY 1983

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)
? 1

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (to.)

P
"

(Jan.) (July)
P T

T

ir

ir -

1-month $pans
3-month spans

| Percent change at annual rate
910c. Composite index of 12 leading kidtcators

920c, Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators

930c. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators

r

50c. GNP in constant (1972) dollars (1-Q span) :

"n

~~

-~*

'

47c. Index of industrial production

48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments

i)lc. Personal income less transfer
payments in 1972 dollars

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1983




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
FT

200. GNP in current ( H i s , Q (am. rate,

223. Personal income in current dollars!

224. D o a b l e personal mcome in curra*
, Q (ann. rate, bl. dd.)

225. Dispo^Me personal income in 1972
1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

;

217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann, r a ^ thous. dot.

a l P^sonal income in
dollars, Q {%m* w e , thous. dol.)
193S S7
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



FEBRUARY 1963

ltd)

URES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T

(Da.) (Nov.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Now.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

| Annual rate, billion dollars (current) [

Personal consumption expenditures—

',

li

^!
•

237.

40©300 •

S#wes,Q
236,

232.

Nondurable goods, Q

Dur«h goods, Q

I

[Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) I

. Nondurable goods, Q

233.

57

iS

i©

(®
S

Durable goods, Q

"

(SI

Current data for these series are shown on pages 1)0 and 81

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1983




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME! AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

'(Now.)
P

(Dee.) (Nov.)
P.
I

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Mar.)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

&oss private imestic investment—

240, Total, 0 —

242. Total fixed Investmentr Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

Annual rate, billion dollars• j J 9 7 2 J j

243. T^taHiKed* investmentTQ

30. Change in busirms inventories, Q

ISSd SJ

SS

89

SO

61

-

il

Current data for these series are shown 6n p&ge 81

42



FEBRUARY 1983

KCII

JPOf
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government F'urchases of Goods and Services
(Aug.) (Apr.)

PI

(Apr.) (Feb.)

P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
I

(Jars.) (July)
P T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |
Government purchases of goods and services—

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) |

1996 S7

Si

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

BCII FEBRUARY 1983



43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) ( f a )
P
T

[Annual rate, billion doHars feurrent)j

252. Exports of gooit Hid services, Q —

Imports of goods aiilNrvices, Q

250. Net exports |«f foods and services, $

j ""

Annual rate, bilbon 4ola»197£),l,

:

255. Net exports of go#t>Jnd
^ \ . . . . . .

1956 57

53

59

60

.

I

80

81

UV 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 82

44



FEBRUARY 1983

A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
_

(Dec) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |

220. National income, Q

ate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q

288. Net interest, Q
^^
consumption adjustments, Q

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q

1956 57
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

FEBRUARY 1983




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A |

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Key.)
P

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Annual rate, billon dollars kurrent) |

290. Gross saving (private and gov^wnent)

295. 'Businln* saving, Q

292. Personal!saving, Q

298. Government suq^s or deficit, Q

293, Personal mm% rate, Q

L.ii ' ii " i( ijlJuiA

1956 57

' i ': i' 'i i ,ul JlJL . .

BB

59

60

il

.. .. l.j!

§2

63

®4

6§

Current data for these series are nhown on pages 82 and 83.

46



FEBRUARY 1983

KCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr,) (Feb.)
P T

I Perwnt of GNP |

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q

268. State and toca government purchases
of goods and services, Q
2m

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q
KM,,

investment

business inventories

jnt of [ Naticihal inipomel
64. Compensation of employees, Q

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
|| and capital consumption adjustments, Q
capital consumption adjustments, Q

289. Net interest, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

SI

1956 S7

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

FEBRUARY 1983



47

B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart B l . Price Movements
(Nov.)

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)

P

T

(Nov.)

ffe)

. .. .4 . . ,. ,
Percent chanfe f t annual rate
oin
310c. Implicit price deflator, J
310. Implicit price deflator, GNP, Q
"311c, Fixed wegfifed price VdeiiC grossbusiness*pra3uct {1-Q spin)

311. Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product, Q '""

Producer prices-

|M*ottth spans
"""" 336c. fiObmrrioifitres

Index: 1967 = 100

Producer prices—
330. A! coriVRRlitir

' 331c. CruWmafefials

332c. Intermediate

"333c7 {TapiiaF equBnienl""
333, Capital equipnmmt
334c. Finished consumer goo#

72

73

74

7S

7©

77

933

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




FEBRUARY

1983

ItCI)

I £(S©M@WuOg M G ^
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P

P

T

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

(Jan.) (July)

P

T

P I
32®-

Percent change at annual rate

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
Index: 1377=* 100
341. Real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nanfami economy1

ll

il :': f
I!

,:

I

• !

1

340. Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1!

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q
-

•-•=•

—! 120-

v -

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector; Q (current dollars)

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

KCII

FEBRUARY 1983




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURE
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
T

(Now.)

(fe)

6-month spans (arm. rate)
in averagptaly earnings of production
1

+10-

, brivate m f l r m economy —
•
340c. Curtllvdollar earnings
^ 1

3 4 K R^al earnings

'

in averagf§piily compensation, all employees;
m buHMSsKr. Q -

6-month spans (ann. rate)

CurrenNoIar compensation

Quarter sp|ns (ffiTfi
4 10-

C. Real compensation
1-quarter spam (ann. ralej

wage M ^ benefit decisions, all industries—
34f|*f : irst year average changes, Q (ann. rate)
Average changes over life of
* S : contract, Q (ann. rate)

no
358. O u t p g p r hour, all persons,
nonfals business sector, Q
370. Output pet boor, all persons,
private business sector, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
t

A

1956 57

1-quarter spans (ann. rate) i

.

i

Ni

1:1

&• 1,933

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to maka them
comparable with the annuallzed 6-rnonth changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50



FEBRUARY 1983

ItCII

1

C

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Now.)
P
T

441.

(Nov.) ' (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

Civilian labor force, total (millions)

1

442.

Total employed (millions)

|participation rates (percent)—

453.

Both sexes 16-19 vears of aee

452,

Females 20 years jmd ove

Number unemployed (millions)—

^44.
•

Males ?0 years
and over

Females 20 years}
and over

446.

4471!

Both sexes 16-19 years of age

Number unemployed, full-time
worfeir^(millions)

19S6 57
Current data Cor these series are shown on page 89.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1983




51

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart 0 1 . Receipts and Expenditures
(Aufi.)(Apr.)
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dee.) (Key.)
T

|Amua[ rate, bion Mian

(turret)

501. Fedwal Government receipts, Q

511. State and local g«lfi!fiment receipts, Q

State and foc^l tovernment expenditure, Q

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

Current data for these series arti shown on page 90.

52



FEBRUARY 19B3

lt€l»

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I J) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
(Aug.) (Apt)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

(Jan.) (July)

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

T

P T

I

26 «i
24222018 •
161412-

1614-

10-

8-

Department military prime contract awards
MOD moving avg.—(Merm§fl;&

1301
120110100908070-

543. Defense Department gross unpaid ob

outstanding (bil tf$f.)

6050-

4011109-

76-

548. Manufacture
w orders, defe
(bil. dol.;
Gloving avg.—6-

5-

3-

1956 57

98

59

60

61

62

63

64

6§

81

82 1983

Current date for these series are shown on page 90.

BCII FEBRUARY 1983




53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC il$ASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (%r.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Mir.
P
T

and: FflfeMeasures of Defense Activity [
557. Output of defense mi space equipment (fed**: 1967=100)

; 1
.„

L. .

2,1

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense prodwct^ (bit. dol.)

84

561. Manufacturers' unfitted orders, defense products (bil. dol.)

580. Defense DepartnitrtLnet outlays, milita}f$ functions a p j i j i i t a i ^
assistance (bil. I(MU MCD moving ;

588, Manufacturers' shipments, defense pro<Jucts
(bil. dol.; MCD n«?Wig avg.—4-term)

1956 57

58

Si

SO

ei

62

1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 91,

54



FEBRUARY 1983

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

(New.)

1
if

ntegjipdiate and1 Fina([Measures of Defense Activity—Cd'n".]

(ftlar.)

P

T

T

' 1; j[—"|
ji

ti

(Jan.) (July)
P
" 1 : "

T
":

"if

•

'

•

I

I

!

570, Employment in defence products industries (millions

1.8-

1.61.41.2-

1.0 «

Defense Department personnel (millions)
577. Military, active duty
3.5«
3.0-

578. Civilian, direct hfrt employment

2201

Defensel P h a s e s 1

200180160140-

i 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services
r
!
; defense, Q (annrrat«L-|)Mpl.)

100-

40 J

565. National defense purchases as a percent of 6NP, Q (percent)

Current data lor these series are shpwn on page 9 1 .

KCII FEBRUARY 1983



i i i B IMPORTANT EC(
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
(Apr.) (Feb.)

24-*
20-

8excluding military i t shipments
; MCO moving av^*~§-tercn)

64*1

^..ij"
agriciftural products

nonelectrical machinery

n14l( •

;:: 612. General imports ( h i ;dol.; MCD moving avgJ
I-g 6t b) 4"i •

614.

Imports of p e t r o i ^ n d petroleum ptote.% (b.L dol.)
5

1
616.

i -

j-

Imports of automobiles an<t } p : s ' ( M . do!.)

t:./i-

Current data for these series aro shown on page 92.




FEBRUARY 1983

KCII

1 SMP^ilMlI ECOWOMae RiE^iUR
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Jin.) (July)
P 7

Annual rate, billion dditrs

Excess of receipts
Excess of payments

24®«

667. Balance on goods and services, Q

24® «
20® <*

Mechandise, adjusted—

622,

61S

Exports,

Merchandise trade balance, Q

Q ^

651.

Income on U.S. investments
20*
on foreign investments In

195S 97
NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

FEBRUARY 1983




57

IUI

OTHER
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production
(Aug.) (Apr.)

(Dec.) (Now.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

FT

FT

P

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

I Index: 1967-100]
280-|

260 4

Industrial production-

240 - ;
220200-

160-

7$L OECD European cduntri^s

14II--f

47. United States

722. United Kingdom
80-

liBi

57

BS

5S

S@

#1

®2

«

til

K'

1983

Current data for these serle* are shown 6n page 94.

58



FEBRUARY 1983

IICII

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Chart F3. Stock Prices
(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

Percent change at annual rate
Consumer prices

Current diita for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

BCII FEBRUARY 1983



59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Q
I
, 940. Ratio,
{ coincident
, index to
, lagging index

910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1, 5,8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

Revised2

1981

930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91,
95, 101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

Year
and
month

920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

Revised2

Revised2

2

Revised

COMPOSITE INDEXES
Leading indicator subgroups
913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2, 3,
5)

914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29) l

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

3

C)

Revised

2

915. Inventory
916. Profitinvestment
ability (series
and purchasing
19, 26, 80)
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)
(1967 = 100)
Revised

2

91?. Money
and financial
flows (series
104. 106, 111)

(1967 = 100)
Revised

2

(1967-100)
Revised2

120.6
122.0
EH23.7

94.2
94.1
94.1

110.7
109.3
109.8

100.5
100.5
100.7

98.2
98.8
H>99.0

122.2
122.1
122.2

119.0
122.2
122.4 .

123.6
120.2
120.5

94.9
94.2
94.5

110.5
109.3
107.3

101.8
102.5
102.6

98.7
98.1
98.4

123.5
123.2
123.1

122.5 ,
123.3 ,
124.7 ;

120.5
119.5
117.5

E>95.0
93.6
91.4

107.1
107.0
106.3

D102.6
102.1
101.2!

98.2
98.5
96.9

123.3
123.8
122.9

144.5
143.0
140.9

125.0
124.5
124.4

115.6
114.9
113.3

90.5
90.3
89.3

104.3
105.4
105.1

99.8
98.7
97.8

96.9
97.1
96.2

121.7
122.2
122.2

"135.1
135.7
135.2

138.4
139.9
139.2

E>126*1
125.3 i
125.2 i

109.8
111.7
111 ?

(NA)

104.2
104.2
104 6

96.7
96.5
96 5

94.5
93.2
92 6

123.3
122.1
122 5

April
May
June

136.5
136.8
136.3

138.0
138.8
137.2

125.9
125.3
124.8 '

109.15
110.3
109.9

105.7
105.2
104.2

96.4
97.1
97.6

93.1
93.0
92.4

123.0
122.8
122.2

July
August
September

137.1
136.8
138.5

136.3
135.2
134.3

124.2 '
122.2 '
121.3 '

109.7
110.6
110.7

105.0
103.7
104.5

98 ,,0
98,3 I
98.8

92.7
93.0
95.4

122.5
124.5
124 3

October
November
December

139.6
140.1
141.2

132.2
132.3
132.0

120.5'
118.3'
116.9 •

109.7
111.8
112.9

105.9
106.2
107.0

98.4
97.5
96 6

97.3
p98.3
NA)

122.5
122.5
122 9

E>»146.3

*132.8

P114.8

P108.0

p98.4

January
February
March

142.1
140.4
141.7

146.8
147.2
147.2

121.7
120.7
119.0

April
May
June

144.6
144.5
143.2

147.1
146.9
147.5

July
August
September

142.9
142.4
139.3

E>147.6
147.3
146.5

October
November
December

136.9
137.0
136.2

1982
January
February
March

1983
January
February
March

J
7

115.7

®p!25.9

April

My
a
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H) for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
l
Series 914 reached its high value (111.8) in September 1980.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,11 page iii.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the February 1982 issue.
"Includes a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1£)82 issue.
'Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
6
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
7
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
2

6
0



FEBRUARY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ J

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

L.L.L

UC.L

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing

(Hours)

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing *

L, C, L

L, L, L

5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance2

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

0)40.4
39.7
39.9

(Per 100 employees)

(Thous.)

C3)

1981
January
February
March

L, L, L

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

(Hours)

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(Per 100 employees)

(*)

L, Lg, U

4. Quit rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

L, Lg, U

L. Lg, U

u.cc

60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed1

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapersL

48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments

(Ratio)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

C3)

3.0
2.8
2.8

3.5
3.5
3.4

424
410
413

1.4
1.3
1.3

1.4
1.4
1.3

0.474
0.478
0.467

128
129
125

0)171.34
170.20
170.77

3.0
3.0

3.4
3.1
3.4

395
401
405

1.1
1.3
1.3

1.3
1.3
1.4

0.447
0.432
0.448

118
118
121

169.57
170.80
170.70

April
May
June

40.1
40.2
40.1

July
August
September

40.0
39.9
39.4

3.0
3.0
2.7

3.4
3.2
2.9

0)395
421
483

H>1.0

H>1.5

1.4
1.7

1.3
1.3

0.466
0.440
0.403

123
119
112

171.04
170.96
167.34

October
Noverrber
December

39.5
39.3
39.1

2.7
2.5
2.4

2.9
3.1
2.7

517
539
551

2.2
2.3
2.2

1.2
1.1
1.1

0.378
0.366
0.346

110
111
109

169.73
168.76
168.66

January
February
March

37.6
39.4
39.0

2.3
2.4
2.3

(NA)

563
514
566

(NA)

(NA)

0.338
0.317
0.289

106
103
96

165.66
168.93
167.92

April
May
June

39.0
39.1
39.2

2.4

566
585
551

0.255
0.249
0.242

88

2.3
2.4

87
85

167.23
167.99
166.52

July
August
September

39.2
39.0
38.8

2.4
2.4
2.3

r533
r605
r653

0.228
0.212
0.192

83
78
73

166.16
165.61
rl65.59

October
November
December

38.8
38.9
38.9

2.3
2.3

0.195
0.195
0.205

76
78

2.3

r651
r616
r531

83

rl64.38
rl63.43
rl64.14

p39.7

P2.3

507

p0.216

p83

P166.01

0)3.1

1982

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
^he following series reached their high values before 1981: Series 2 (3.7) in October 1980, series 60 (0.497) in November 1980, and
3
series 46 (134) in November 1980. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New
Features and Changes for This Issue" (item 2) on page iii of the February 1982 issue.
"See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,"
page iii.

I N ] I I FEBRUARY 1983



61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

EMPLOYMENT ANO UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment—Continued,

Process

u, c, c

C, C,C

42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

41, Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey

40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg.r construction)

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, C, U

U. Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey

43. Unemployment rate,
total

45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State program.s'

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

H, Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

I, Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

1981

96,544
96,803
97,148

90,909
90,913
91,014

25,588
25,501
25,588

58.38
58.43
58.58

8,048
8,032
7,967

7.5
7.4

97,487
E>97,597
97,033

91,099
91,131
91,286

25,534
25,540
25,656

H>58.80
58.72
58.31

January
February
March
April
May
June

7.3

3.5
3.4
3.4

14.3
14.0
13.9

7,860
8,133
8,047

7.2
7.5
7.4

3.3
3.3
3.2

13.7
13.5
1,4.1

E>25,718 •
25,637 i
25,583

58.44
58.36
57.94

H>7,854
8,053
8,271

1)7.2
7.4
7.6

3.;?
>3.^
3.3

14.0
14.
13.

2.2

2.2
2.1

2.1

October
November

. . ,

December

, . ,

1)91,396
91,322
91,363

96,981
96,840
96,458

91,224
90,996
90,642

25,393,
25,176,
24,908,

58.02
57.88
57.51

8,673
9,025
9,389

8.0
8.3
8.6

3.5
3.8
4.1

90,460
90,459
90,304

24,684'
24,631'
24,450!

57.46
57.41
57.29

9,346
9,669
9,881

8.6
8.8
•9.0

4.1
4.1
4.3

13.4
14.0
13.9

2.2
2.5
2.7

96,128
96,548
96,310

August
September . . ,

97,428
97,313
96,746

96,309
96,328
96,230

July

90,083
90,166
89,839

24,289'
24,255
23,994

57.17
57.40
57.17

10,256
10,384
10,466

9.3
9.4
9.5

4., 5
4.5
4,5

14.3
14.9
16.3

2,8
3.0
3.2

96,143
96,254
96,180

89,535
r89,313
r89,264

23,840
23,657
23,530

57.06
57.06
56.92

10,828
10,931
11,315

9.8
9.9
10.2

4.5
4.7
5..0

15.6
16.1
16.6

3.2
3.3
3.5

95,763
95,670
95,682

r88,877
r88,750
r88,535

23,239
r23,081
r22,975

56.65
56,57
56.50

11,576
11,906
12,036

10.
10.
10.8

5.0

17.
17,
18.0

3.8
4.1
4.3

95,691

p88,874

p23,113

56.46

11,446

10.4

19.4

4.2

13.
13.
[H}12.9

2.

H>2.

2.1

2.1
1.1
2.2

1982
January
Februa'ry
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November

. . .

December

. . .

1983
January
February
March

p4.5

April
May
June
July
August

September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.

'Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62



FEBRUARY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process . . . . . . . . .
Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C, C, C

50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars

C, C, C

C, C, C

52. Constant
(1972) dollars

51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Persona income

223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c, c, c

47. Index of
industrial
production,
total

(1967 = 100)

c, c, c

C, L, L

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

C.C, C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1
1981.

1,056.2
1,061.9
1,064.0

E>234.3
232.2
231.9

151.4
151.8
152.1

141.0
140.8
142.1

165.6
166.2
165.3

692^8

2,351.7

1,227.1
1,232.2
1,234.5

1,502!?

2,364.5
2,379.1
2,398.4

1,234.7
1,234.0
1,239.5

1,064.5
1,065.0
1,069.4

231.6
231.5
232.1

151.9
152.7
152.9

142.5
143.5
143.2

165.9
166.4
165.8

689^8

July
August
September

[H>ls5l6!4

2,436.3
2,459.6
2,478.6

1,248.1
1,253.6
1,253.1

1,071.8
0)1,078.3
1,077.9

231.8
231.2
228.9

0)153.9
153.6
151.6

0)143.6
143.4
140.9

167.1
0)167.3
165.9

0)697^2

October
November
December

l,490M

2,487.2
2,499.0
2,497.6

1,251.1
1,250.1
1,245.7

1,076.5
1,074.3
1,069.3

228.1
226.2
223.2

149.1
146.3
143.4

137.8
134.4
131.3

162.8
160.3
157.4

678!6

1,470.7

2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6

1,236.0
1,243.8
1,245.0

1,061.7
1,068.8
1,068.3

222.4
223.8
221.7

140.7
142.9
141.7

127.1
129.3
128.2

155.1
157.8
157.3

66U8

1,478^4

2,535.5
2,556.2
2,566.3

1,249.6
1,256.7
1,248.8

1,070.3
1,077.4
1,070.3

220.9
220.1
217.3

140.2
139.2
138.7

126.7
126.1
125.5

156.1
155.0
155.3

663.' 2

July
August
September

1,481.1

2,588.3
2,592.0
2,597.2

1,251.0
1,248.6
1,245.1

1,067.5
1,065.4
1,061.3

215.5
213.6
212.1

138.8
138.4
137.3

125.9
124.9
123.5

155.7
156.9
156.7

665! i

October
November
December

rl,473*9

r2,611.4
r2,631.2
r2,638.1

rl,243.5
rl,252.4
K>rl,257.4

rl.056.5
rl,062.3
rl,066.1

209.4
208.5
208.9

rl35.7
134.8
rl35.0

rl20.3
119.3
rll9.4

rl56.2
155.2
rl55.5

0)p2,638.9

pi,255.4

pi,067.5

p211.6

P136.2

P120.9

P156.3

January
February
March

1,507 .'8

April
May
June

2,308.1
2,330.1

1982
Janjary
February
Match
April

My
a
Jum;

r655.8

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See rote on page.60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
1

Sec! "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

HOI

FEBRUARY 1983




63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

Year
and
month

Q j

PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued

L. C. U

83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)

82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Orders and Deliveries

L.C.U

84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials

,

U L, L

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

7. Constant
(1972) dollars

L, L,L

8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bit. dol.)

1981

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Revised1

(Percent)

L.L.L

L, Lg. U

L, L, L

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
Qrders, durable
gocds industries

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries (u)

(Bil. doi.)

{Bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

Revised1

82.53
82.70
83.86

38.23
38.15
38.45

33.08
34.36
33.88

1.10
0.52
0.35

311.15
311.67
312.02

46
50
52

86.41
87.40
86.91

39.28
B>39.51
39,03

34.54
E>35.07
35.01

1.62
1.96
0.02

313.64
315.60
315.62

©56

81.2

79.3

81.1

B>87.58
84.82
84.46

39.12
37.70
37.42

34.66
33.11
32.83

1.84
-0.40
-0.22

(H>317.46
" 317.06
"
316.84

46
48
43

74.8

75.2

77.19
78.59
76.42

34.08
34.47
33.47

30.75
30.05
30.05

-4.07
-1.69
-2.71

312.77
311.08
308.37

38
32
30

71.6

72.0

75.06
76.31
77.86

32.82
33.37
33.98

28.82
29.24
30.23

-0.49
-1.67
-0.26

307.88
306.21
305.95

32
36
35

70.3

April
May
June

E>82.2

79.8

January
February . . .
March

69.6

76.19
75.71
74.55

33.20
32.87
32.23

29.10
30.53
30.07

-0.94
-3.81
-4.33

305.00
301.19
296.87

31
30
38

69.7

68.1

76.45
72.98
73.27

33.01
31.50
31.54

30.74
29.68
29.67

-2.59
-4.26
-3.30

294.27
290.01
286.71

37
40
40

67.6

r65.8 !

69.60
70.61
r76.59

29.93
30.25
32.75

27.71
28.11
28.21

-2.75
-2.10
r3.22

283.96
281,86
r285.08

44
40
38

p80.0!i

p34.28

p31.28

0>p3.65

p288.73

41

78

E>78

July
August
September . .
October
November . .
December . . ,

*76

72

52
48

1982
January
February
March

*72

April
May
June

*71

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December , , .

p69

(NA)

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
l

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page H I .

64



FEBRUARY 1983

IU II

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C.C.C

C, C,C

56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Revised

1981

C L, U

C,L, C

75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(1967 = 100)

(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

• I
i l l

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

L.C.C

L, L, L

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment ©

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1st Q
1966 = 100)

2

12. Index of
net business
formation 1

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(1967 = 100)
Revised

\

L.L.L

L, L, L

2

(Number)
(a)

347,858
348,653
350,281

160,549
160,469
160,614

146.9
147.8
148.3

84,104
85,201
86,128

44,903
45,199
45,426

7U6

71.4
66.9
66.5

121.6
120.7
120.8

46,039
48,588
47,972

352,855
353,698
[fi>356,524

161,180
160,775
E>161,968

148.9
150.7
150.3

86,263
86,361
87,299

45,259
45,074
45,421

63.0

72.4
76.3
73.1

121.9
119.1
117.3

49,413
48,997
49,172

July . . .
August
September

355,236
354,520
353,725

160,810
159,755
159,193

0)150.7
149.6
147.8

87,292
87,961
87,823

45,135
45,317
44,945

7l!5

74.1
E>77.2
73.1

118.2
118.7
117.6

49,038
48,631
48,450

October
November
December

346,605
344,943
341,330

155,344
155,069
153,281

146.5
144.0
142.0

86,413
86,733
86,572

44,088
44,161
43,990

62^8

70.3
62.5
64.3

114.8
117.4
115.2

47,947
H>49,413
47,556

January
February
March

334,579
340,571
342,121

150,131
153,317
153,878

139.6
141.8
141.5

85,320
87,418
87,242

43,026
44,173
44,128

68! 6

71.0
66.5
62.0

113.2
115.6
113.5

43,330
47,234
46,899

April
May
June

339,835
349,096
346,126

152,207
155,982
153,903

142.1
143.6
144.8

88,294
90,841
88,042

44,638
45,764
43,955

67!8

65.5
67.5
65.7

115.6
115.2
113.1

46,876
46,995
45,936

July
August
September

344,603
339,464
339,470

153,618
151,683
151,612

145.8
144.1
143.4

89,445
88,502
89,326

44,478
43,965
44,265

6^5

65.4
65.4
69.3

112.7
112.1
110.5

44,525
46,981
45,552

October
November
December

332,537
r335,804
p332,713

148,162
150,261
pl49,528

142.2
141.1

rl42.0

90,290
JH>r92,546
r91,482

44,544
E>H5,792
r45,378

73.4
72.1
71.9

111.6
113.0
111.1

45,530
48,474
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

P143.3

p91,575

p45,537

70.4

P113.1

January
February
March
April
May
June

1982

E>r77!5

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
J
Series 12 reached its high value (122.7) in December 1980.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

Kill

FEBRUARY 1983




65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
Q |

PROCESS

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

Minor Economic
Business Investment Commitments

Process

Timing Class

L, L, L

C Lg, Lg

U, Lg, U

L, C, U

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

Contracts and orders for plant

Year
and

9. Construction contracts for com-

11. Newly

capital goods industries, nondefense

mercial and industrial b u i l d i n g s 1 2

approved capital

capital appropria-

appropriations,

month

Value of manufacturers' new orders,

and equipment

tions, 1,000

97. Backlog of

10. Current

20. Constant

24. Current

27. Constant

Square feet of

Square meters of

1,000 manu-

manufacturing

dollars

(1972) dollars1

dollars

(1972) dollars 1

floor space

floor s p a c e 3

facturing corpora-

corporations

tions
(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Revised'*

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

Revised*

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

(Bil. dol.)

C)

1981

28.70
25.75
28.23

14.91
12.76
14.20

25.06
21.86
24.46

13.32
11.06
12.56

83.72
83.86
83.79

7.78
7.79
7.78

27.70

E)30.24
28.54
28.38

15.03
14.29
14.02

H>25.69
24.49
24.04

13.05
12.53
12.14

79.64
84.75
81.01

7.40
7.87
7.53

(H)28.06

28.62
28.27
27.92

13.65
14.30
14.29

24.66
24.87
24.31

11.94
12.83
12.75

73.46
78.67
68.12

6.82
7.31
6.33

26^94

26.96
27.88
26.66

13.58
14.31
13.91

22.53
24.37
22.13

11.68
12.80
11.98

74.26
70.77
70.65

6.90
6.57
6.56

22.99

26.62
25.12
25.78

13.40
12.05
13.03

21.72
21.56
22.17

11.32
10.54
11.49

r58.18
r63.29
r61.15

r5.40
r5.88
r5.68

25.*77

13.76
11.56
11.08

22.61
20.33
19.28

12.54
10.28
9.35

r58.93
r53.71
r64.87

r5.47
r4.99

June

25.48
23.33
23.31

July
August
September

23.33
23.03
24.54

10.96
11.30
12.25

20.32
18.89
20.27

9.68
9.53
10.43

r57.80
r59.78
r55.95

r5.37
r5.55
r5.20

pl8.'H

23.51
23.82
24.84

11.99
11.40
13.00

20.18
20.17
r20.15

10.57
9.88

rll.06

r54.65
r50.69
r49.55

r5.08
r4.71
r4.60

(NA)

p23.97

pll.75

p21.12

plO.58

66.89

6.21

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

93'.44

96! 18

[H>97.'34

92^74

1982
January
February
March
April
May

October
November
December

9l!ii
19.33

r6.03

82^82

p73.82

(NA)

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
x

The following

series reached their high values before

series 9 (90.80 square feet and 8.44
produced without written permission
Bureau of Economic Analysis.

6
6



1981: Series 20

square meters) in November 1980.
from McGraw-Hill

2

(15.66) in December
This

1980, series 27

is a copyrighted

Information Systems Company, F.W.

(14.12) in December

1980, and

series used by permission; it may not be re-

Dodge Division.

3

Converted

to metric units by the

''See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j FX D
IE

Minor Economic
Process

CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

Timing Class

C Lg, Lg

61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures

76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, C

C Lg, U

C Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

C Lg, C

Nonresidentia 1 fixed investment ir 1972 dollars
86. Total

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

28. New
private housing
units started,
total

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits1
(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

1981
January
February
March

312.24

332.78
331.57
344.52

177.7
177.5
179.3

169 '.7

49*5

120.1

1,588
1,279
1,305

99.8
96.6
94.7

tH>49*6

April
May
June

316.73

344.36
345.78
353.20

181.0
182.0
183.6

170*1

51*6

119.1

1,332
1,150
1,047

95.8
95.2
79.6

47*3

July
August
September

[H)328.25

348.42
357.31
H>360.38

0)184.8
184.4
182.7

173.9

52*5

l>12i"4

1,035
949
900

76.0
70.9
67.4

42.9

October
November
December

327 .s83

349.27
358.67
356.78

180.5
179.0
179.0

E>174.*2

53*3

120.9

866
839
906

59.6
60.0
64.4

39*9

January
February
March

327*72

330.07
342.57
343.72

172.2
171.6
169.0

172.0

53.5

118*5

877
911
920

64.9
64.0
68.7

38*9

April
May
June

323*22

325.51
335.59
331.34

164.9
159.9
156.7

166.7

[H>53.*7

113*6

911
1,028
910

71.0
76.3
75.0

40.1

July
August
September

315!79

323.71
314.09
320.97

154.9
153.9
150.5

163.*4

53*6

110.4

1,185
1,046
1,134

85.8
71.7
81.0

39*5

October
November
December

a315.21

309.21
r310.90
P315.49

rl47.1
rl46.6
M47.5

rl60.0

r52.2

rlO7*.9

1,142
1,361
1,263

94.7
96.3
105.4

r42'.5

(NA)

pl47.4

E)pl,716

119.4

1982

1983
January
February
March

a316*40

April
May
June

a320.00

July
August
September

.

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
x
Series 29 reached its high value (119.9) in September 1980.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1983




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

L, L, L

L. L, L

IL.L

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars

36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars

31. Change
in book value
of mf(|. and
trade inventories; total

38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and cm
order, mfg.2

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Smoothed

Monthly
data
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised

3

(Ann. rate,
bilj dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, lg, Lg

I, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade

78, Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
or:er, mfg.

(Bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

(Bil. dol.)

3

3

Revised

1981

2.4

-15.14
15.31
-5;82

-6.36
-5.79
-1.92

0.58
0.77
-0.34

485.40
490.29
492.40

262.33
263.33
263.10

79.42
80.55
82.36

1.63
1.64
1.64

222.47
223.24
222.90

-0.13
12.1

|H>18.37

16.88

0.62
3.63
7.92

1.31
1.64
0.55

494.18
497.81
501.53

263.41
264.70
265.92

82.10
83.65
84.00

1.63
1.65
1.64

224.21
225,85
226.40

5.68
4.98
14.94

E>12.68
11.41
8.86

1.88
-1.09
1.12

504.74
510.10
515.35

266.53
267.56
269.42

84.22
85.65
"86.86

1.66
1.67
1.69

228.28
227.19
[H)228.32

-0.94

7.43
5.01
-2.18

34.7
40.0
1-26.2

-2.71
-1.26
-1.22

518.24
0)521.57
519.39

270.47
B>271.17
269.85

88.05

1)88.50
87.66

1.74
1.75
1.76

225.61
224.35
223.13

-8.68

-13.49
-22.97
-25.08

'-37.7
-28.2
-10.2

-2.96
-2.64
-2.11

516.26
513.91
513.05

267.69
266.45
265.98

86.84
87.90
88.49

1.78
1.74
1.73

220.17
217.53
215.42

-4,. 4

-7.33
-27.00
-7.33

-18.77
-14.37
-14.11

24.2
-54.7
29.6

-1.67
-2.33
-4.04

515.07
510.52
512.98

266.54
264.54
265.18

87.39
86.56
85.90

1.75
1.70
1.72

213.75
211.42
207.39

July
August
September . . .

3.4

1.02
-12.78
2.63

-12.50
-8.73
-4.70

4.9
14,0
10.1

-0.80
-2.21
-2.02

513.39
514.55
515.40

265.56
265.46
266.03

86.61
86.68
86.40

1.73
1.75
1.75

206.59
204.38
202.36

October
November . . .
December . . .

r-18.7

-16.38
-40.51
p-15.96

-5.94
-13.46
p-21.18

-14.1
M7.1
p-36.6

-1.90
r-1.56
p-1.19

514.22
r508.63
p505.58

r265.24
r262.28
p261.40

86.37
r85,41
83.52

©1.79
1.75
1.75

r20Q.47
r 198.91
p!97.72

<NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .

[H>16.5

October
November . . .
December . . .

4.8

-2.92
-20.29

1982
January
February
March

-15.4

April
May
June

-33.56
-27.19

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June . . . ' , . . ,
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, ;ind 27.

'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
^Series 38 reached its high value (1.97) in July 1980.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




FEBRUARY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

g j

Vlinor Economic
Process

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
materials

Year
and
month

L. L,L

U, L, L

L, L, L

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials1 2

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

L. L, L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed
data 2 'J

Monthly
data *

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks <u)

@
(Percent)

(Percent)

(1941-43 = 10)

L, L, L

L.L.L

Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars

L.CL

L. C L

Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj *

79. Current
18. Constant
(1972) dollars * dollars

80. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

|H>56.*8

L. L,L

22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic
income2
(Percent)

(1967-100)

n

1981

(Percent)

Profits and Profit Margins

(5)

-1.81
-2.50
0.64

291.6
284.2
289.8

-1.60
-2.08
0.92

0.16
-0.80
-1.15

132.97
128.40
133.19

E>16i.*6

84^6

rlO8!9

0.94
0.10
0.30

293.0
288.9
282.9

0.83
-0.37
-0 f 45

-0.52
0.17
0.23

134.43
131.73
132.28

146 .'2

74^2

105^9

-1.19
-1.34
-2.37

286.6
289.5
?83 0

-0.25
-0.41
- 1 91

-0.18
-0.36
-0.61

129.13
129.63

15CL8

75^4

Il6l7

55^6

S.Q

118.27

-1.08
-2.18
-0.72

277.2
270.5
264.2

-1.14
-1.88
-1.05

-1.00
-1.40
-1.50

119.80
122.92
123.79

14419

7i *2

e>n2!3

5b\5

8*i

January
February
March

0.87
-1.40
-0.22

263.4
261.0
254.5

0.35
-0.97
-0.89

-1.11
-0.71
-0.53

117.28
114.50
110.84

115*6

56\3

106 .'4

49.*2

6.*7

April
May
June

-0.76
0.11
0.29

247.4
245.5
232.2

-1.21
-0.18
-1.45

-0.76
-0.89
-0.85

116.31
116.35
109.70

116.3

56.2

106.6

48.5

...
6.7

July
August
September

-0.33
-2.46
-0.26

237.0
236.2
239.0

0.41
-1.38
0.19

-0.68
-0.61
-0.53

109.38
109.65
122.43

119*4

57* i

105.3

56!4

6*9

October
November
December

-0.08
-0.64
0.15

235.5
230.4
227.4

-0.46
-0.98
-0.28

-0.40
-0.48
-0.50.

132.66
138.10
139.37

(NA)

<NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

232.1
240.3

2.03

-0.16

January
February
March
April .
May
June ,
July .
August
September

..

October
November
December

9.*8

S.S

1982
.

1983
January
February
March

E>2.73

6

E>144.27
7
145.61

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
beginning with June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 2The following series reached high values before 1981: Series 23 (304.7) in November 1980, series 99
(2.92, monthly) in August 1980 and (1.96, smoothed) in September 1980, series 18 (84.2) in III Q 1980, and series 22 (9.9) in IV Q 1980.
3
See footnote 1 on page 68. 4IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
(Continued on page 70.)

ROI

FEBRUARY 1983




69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

U, L,L

I, L, I.

81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income l

15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations

(Cents)

Revised

1981

L, L, L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins-Continued

(Percent)

Timing Class

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued

U,L

L.L.L

26. Ratio, price
Net cash flow, corporate
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector 34. Current
35. Constant
dollars
(1972) dollars

(1977-100)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations

(1977 = 100)

(Dollars)

Lg, Lg. Lg

18. Lg, Lg

62. Index of labor ccst per
unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data

(1967-100}

2

Actual data
as a percent
of trend

64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
incoie

(Percent)

<?erceit)

C2)

January
February
March

6.0

4.9

0)98.2

G>279.0

D141.2

139.0

1.267

202.6
203.6
204.4

IOC. 6
100.4
100.1

74.9

April .
May .
June .

6.0

fi>5.'6

97.9

267.7

132.0

141.5

1.289

206.1
207.4
208.9

100.2
100.1
100,1

75.3

July
August
September . . .

B>6.1

4.8

98.1

276.5

133.9

144.2

1.315

208.9
209.9
212.6

99.4
99.1
99.7

74.9

October
November . . .
December . . .

5.9

4.4

97.7

277.5

131.8

147.9

1.349

216.6
219.9
222.5

100.8
101.7
102.2

75.4

January .
February
March . .

5.7

3.9

96.7

254.9

120.6

150.9

1.376

227.9
226.0
225.8

(R>103.9
102.4
101.6

[H>76.4

April .
May
June

5.6

3.7

96.5

263.5

123.3

152.9

1.388

228.0
230.7
231.3

101.9
102.4
102.0

76.3

July . . . .
August . .
September

6,0

3.5

96.8

272.6

128.6

153.8

E)1.392

230.2
229.6
229.7

100.9
100.0
99.4

76.1

CNA)

(NA)

r97.0

(NA)

CNA)

E)rl54.4

CNA)

231^0
E)r231.7
r230,9

99.3
98.9
c
)7.9

CNA)

P231.2

P97.4

1982

October
November . . ,
December . . .
1983
January .
February
March . ,
April . . .
May . . .
June . . .
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
l
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

2

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

Continued from page 69: sSee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
"Average for February 2, 9, 16, and 23.

70



6

Average for February :l-22, excluding weekends.

FEBRUARY 1983

s

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC

Q j

PROCESS
Minor Economic

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

Process .

Titling Class

L, L, L

L, C, U

85. Change in

102. Change

money supply

in money
supply (M2)

(Ml)

Credit Flows

Velocity of Money

Lt L, L

L, L, L

104. Change in total liquid assets

Year

Monthly

Smoothed

and

data

105. Money
supply (Ml)
in 1972
dollars

L, L, L

C, Lg, C

C.C.C

106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars

data 1

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml)

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)

month

(Percent)
Revised13

(Percent)
Revised3

(Percent)

Revised

(Percent)
3

Revised

3

(Bil. dol.)
Revised3

(Bil. dol.)
Revised

3

(Ratio)
Revised

(Ratio)
3

Revised"1

1981

L.L.L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(3)

0.82
0.36
1.19

0.57
0.75
1.36

1.13
0.87
0.82

0.94
0.97
0.93

200.3
199.1
200.4

798.4
796.8
803.1

6.8U

1.386
1.389
1.383

55.82
60.60
46.93

E>2.10
-0.95
-0.19

1.30
0.53
0.49

0.72
1.12
0.95

0.87
0.84
0.91

203.7
200.2
198.4

810.1
808.1
806.1

6.744

1.372
1.373
1.378

54.62
42.05
47.48

0.23
0.40
0.02

0.74
1.07
0.33

0.95
©1.16
0.68

0.97
1.01
0.98

196.6
195.8
193.7

802.8
804.9
798.9

0)6.923

1.389
1.388
1.394

60.85
34.20
26.76

0.39
0.60
1.08

0.63
0.95
0.80

0.88
1.01
0.64

0.92
0.90
0.87

193.9
194.2
195.5

789.3
793.1
796.4

6.879

0)1.410
1.403
1.391

22.79
21.66
5.14

1.63
0.04
0.13

0.85
0,31
0.72

0.85
0.89
0.92

0.85
0.81
0.84

198.1
198.1
198.4

800.9
802.8
808.9

6.685

1.381
1.384
1.377

22,08
16.39
3.54

0.16
0.69
0.22

0.34
0.84
0.76

0.64
1.00
1.06

0.85
0.84
0.88

198.2
197.6
195.9

809.7
808.2
805.7

6.742

1.382
1.381
1.376

3-74
3722
r-9.77

0.87
1.21
0.70

1.07
0.91
0.94

0.97
[H>1.03
0.94

195.2
196.3
198.2

807.9
815.2
820.1

6.734

September

0.22
0.86.
1.07

1.376
1.362
1.355

r-5.96
r-7.22
r-3.37

October
November
December

1.21
1.13
0.91

0.65
0.79
0.73

eO.77
e0.77
e0.29

e0.81
e0.73
e0.66

199.7
202.0
204.4

822.0
828.5
836.8

6.546

1.353
1,353
1.347

r-55.37
-9.05
p-23.51

p0.84
"1.75

H>p2.47

eO.97

e0.64

E>p205.7

|H>p856.0

pi.315

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1982
January
February . . t
March
April

May
June
July
August

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 3 1 , and 32.
1

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Series 33 reached its high value (82.61) in October 1980.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
''Average for weeks ended February 2, 9, and 16.
2
3

B O ) FEBRUARY 1983



71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows—Continued

Timing Class

L, L, L

112. Net change 113. Net
in bank loans
change in
to businesses
consumer installment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L, L

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

111. Change
in credit outstandingbusiness and
consumer
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
percent)

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

li, U L

110. Total
privaie
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures1©

(Mil. dol.)

Interest Rates

Bank Reserves

L, L, L

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans

(Percent)

L, U, U

L. Lg, U

C Lg, Lg

L. Lg. Lg

94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve @

113. Federal
funds rate ©

114. Treasury
bill rate ©

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

93. Free
reserves ©

C)

1981

6.31
-7.09
-18.96

14.47
22.14
35.65

7.5
6.5
4.4

320,608

341.36
789.20
485.34

2.42
2.51
2.53

-1,028
-1,023
-719

1,3(86
1,301
994

19.08
15.93
14.70

14.72
14.90
13.48

April
May
June

35.71
41.36
32.80

32.66
18.85
24.37

10.6
H>11.5
8.8

536.88
428.20
408.54

2.40
2.40
2.30

-1,136
H)-1,968
-1,700

1,338

©392,040

E>2,220
2,039

15.72
18.52
!8>19.10

13.63
[H}16.30
14.56

July . . . .
August
September

41.10
28.34
22.93

18.61
29.14

318,116

E)35.70

9.9
9.2
9.3

619.46
450.41
752.34

2.22
2.35
2.28

-1,335
-1,122
-1,035

1,679
1,417
1,451

19.04
17.82
15.87

14.70
15.61
14,95

October
November
December

13.62
13.32
23 36

12.02
7.20
-0 40

3.6
3.7
3 5

247,540

897.94
618.76
626 74

2.37
2.42
2 37

-871
-348
-330

1,149
695
642

15.08
13.31
12 37

13.87
11.27
10 93

46.64

5.32
0.90
11.88

7.3
7.0
3.6

(NA)

ED 58.09
9.40

r255,632

2.48
2.39
2.24

-1,101
-1,414
-1,254

1,526
1,713
1,611

13.22
14.78
14.68

12.41
13.78
12.49

April
May
June

54.30
40.56
40.80

14.10
16.79
16.19

5.9
5.9
1.9

r310,ifJ8

2.20
2.21

E>2.16

-1,307
-745
-895

1,531
1,105
1,205

14.94
14.45
14.15

12.8?
12.15
12.11

July
August
September

9.59
4.88
40.56

6.84
0.79
13.10

-2.0
1.8
1.4

r253,148

2.19
2.21
?. 19

-378
-199
-592

669
510
976

12.59
10.12
10.31

11.91
9.01
8.20

October
November
December

13.60
r-25.63
r-21.10

-3.89
30.28
26.30

-4.5
-5.4
p-5.5

p253,064

2.24
2.23
2.18

-51
-177
r-197

455
579
r697

9.71
9.20
8.95

7.75
8.04
8.01

P45.18
S
8.52

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p46

p500
*526

8.68
"8.53

January
February
March

1982
January
February
March

1983
January
February
March

3

7.81
8.13

April'
May . .
June
July . , .
August . . . .
September
October . . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
1
z
Series 14 reached its high value (239.34) in November 1980.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page H i .
'Average for
5
week:; ended February 2, 9, and 16.
''Average for weeks ended February 2, 9, 16, and 23.
Average for weeks ended February 3, 10, 17,
and 24,

72



FEBRUARY 1983

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class . .

Interest Rates—Continued
Lg, Lg, l.g

116. Corporate
bond yields (u)
Year
and
month

C Lg, Lg

U, Lgr Lg

g, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

115. Treasury 117. Municipal 118, Secondary 67. Bank rates
on short-term
bond yields (u) bond yields <u) market yields
on FHA
business loans
mortgages <§)

(Percent)

Outstanding Debt

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

®
(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks (u)

66. Consumer
installment
credit

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg. Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,

101. Constant
(1972) dollars

consumer installment credit
to personal
income

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

1

C)

1981

20.16
19.43
18.05

307,415
309,260
312,231

211,868
212,042

210,434

88,611
87,802
86,350

13.32
13.27
13.28

19^99

17.15
19.61
20.03

314,953
316,524
318,555

214,229
220,579
224,215

86,979
89,339
90,592

13.30
13.28

16.76
17.96
B>18.55

H>2i'.ii

20.39
IH>20.50
20.08

320,106
322,534
325,509

228,589
233,595
238,491

91,914
93,851
96,050

13.14
13.11
13.13

12.83
11.89
12.91

17.43
15.98
16.43

n!23

18.45
16.84
15.75

326,511
327,111
327,078

240,950
243,580
246,544

96,923
98,178
99,253

13.13
13.09
13.10

13.73
13.63
12.98

0)13.28
12.97
12.82

17.38
17.10
16.41

17^13

15.75
16.56
16.50

327,521
327,596
328,586

.252,207
257,139
259,225

100,681
102,568
103,607

13.11
13.03
13.05

15.62
15.37
15.96

12.84
12.67
13.32

12.59
11.95
12.45

16.31
16.19
16.73

n'.ii

16.50
16.50
16.50

329,761
331,160
332,509

264,353
269,437
271,083

105,657
107,474
107,872

13.01
12.96
12.96

July
August
September

15.75
14.64
13.78

12.97
12.15
11.48

12.28
11.23
10.66

16.29
14.61
14.03

13*27

16.26
14.39
13.50

333,079
333,145
334,237

271,523
272,315
274,083

107,662
108,019
109,066

12.87
12.85
12.87

October
November
December

12.63
11.89
12.15

10.51
10.18
10.33

9.69
10.06
9.96

12.99
12.82
12.80

1K26

12.52
11.85
11.50

333,913
336,436
H>338,628

E)274,696
268,3^0
263,810

|H>109,093
106,412
104,521

12.79
rl2.79
P12.84

10.37
10.61

3

9.50
9.58

12.87

11.00
"11.00

(NA)

p266,693

plO5,873

January
February
March

14.01
14.60
14.49

11.65
12.23
12.15

9.68
10.10
10.16

14.23
14.79
15.04

19.91

April
May
June

15.00
15.68
14.97

12.62
12.96
12.39

10.62
10.78
10.67

15.91
16.33
16.31

July
August
September

15.67
16.34
D16.97

13.05
13.61
H>14.14

11.14
12.26
12.92

October
November
December

16.96
15.53
' 15.55

14.13
12.68
12.88

January
February
March

16.34
16.35
15.72

April
May
.une

13.32

1982

1983
January
February
March

2

12.04
12.13

2

(NA)

April
May
Jjne
July
August
September
October
November
December

<

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
Average for weeks ended February 4, 11, 18, and 25.
3
Average for weeks ended February 3, 10, 17, and 24.
"Average for February 1-25.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1983




7
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

H I
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
HI)

Year
and
month

'952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91,
95, 101, 109)

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

Revised2

1981

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Revised2

Revised2

Revised2

1-month
span

6-month
span

Revised2

6-month
span

961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)

962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th l
(51 areas)

963. Number of employees on pr.-vate
nonagricultura! payrolls
(186 industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-minth
span

1 month
span

Revised2

6-month
span

8.3
33.3
58.3

75.0
54.2
58.3

100.0
87.5
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

8.3
25.0
41.7

16.7
66.7
33.3

90.0
7.5
60.0

95.0
87.5
77.5

86.3
39.2
31.4

76.5
81.4
70.6

56.7
48.7
51.1

64.8
65.9
67.2

100.0
41.7
25.0

45.8
58.. 3
33.3

50.0
50.0
100.0

75.0
75.0
50.0

83.3
66.7
41.7

66.7
50.0
66.7

72.5
77.5
22.5

60.0
17.5
5.0

64.7
78.4
17.6

1.9.6
19.6
5.9

68.3
55.3
54.0

67.7
67.2
67.5

33.3
41.7
8.3

8.3
16.7
8.3

75.0
25.0
37.5

50.0
25.0
12.5

66.7
50.0
83.3

83.3
66.7
66.7

35.0
35.0
15.0

15.0
12.5
5.0

68.6
58.8
9.8

17.6
9.8
27.5

59.9
50.3
50.3

51.3
39.0
33.9

25.0
50.0
29.2

8.3
8.3
25.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

75.0
66.7
75.0

66.7
66.7
50.0

62.5
20.0
30.0

7.5
5.0
5.0

60.8
49.0
22.5

11.8
5.9
7.8

34.7
28.2
31.2

30.1
27.7
24.2

January
February
March

45.8
58.3
41.7

41.7
41.7
54.2

0.0
87.5
37.5

0.0
50.0
50,0

75.0
33.3
50.0

41.7
33.3
33.3

5.0
95.0
12.5

12.5
42.5
30.0

96.1
24.5
5.9

11.8
31.4
43.1

32.5
42.5
35,8

21.8
27.4
27.4

April .
May
June

66.7
41.7
41.7

66.7
50.0
45.8

25.0
75.0
0.0

50.0
0.0
0.0

58.3
41.7
50.0

33.3
33.3
33.3

42.5
75.0
72/5

30.0
40.0
77.5

62.7
68.6
19.6

15.7
23.5
9.8

40.9
51.1
32.0

29.8
28.8
30.1

July
August
September

54.2
58.3
58.3

50.0
50.0
54.2

25.0
0.0
12.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

33.3
33.3
41.7

33.3
16.7
16.7

45.0
25.0
35.0

32.5
r45.0
p85.0

67.6
9.8
17.6

r!7.6
p72.5
CNA)

43.5
37.6
43.0

24.2
r21.0
r23.9

October
November
December

62.5
58.3
54.2

"100.0

0.0
50.0
50.0

"16.7

25.0
8.3
25.0

5

p28.8

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

.......

.

1982

0.0

52.5
r67.5
r50.0

88.2
60.8
p76.5

26.1
r34.9
r37.4

p92.5

CNA)

P53.2

1983
January
February
March

3

90.0

"100.0

s

25.0

,

April .
May
June
July . . . . . . . . . . .
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans; 1-month indexes are placed on th« 26 month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the ?d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships 3r order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "a", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1

Figures are the percent of components declining.
See "New Features and Changer; for This Issue/1 page iii.
Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
"•Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

2

74



FEBRUARY 1983

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q

| DIFFUSION NOEXES—Continued

Year
and
month

964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (34 industries)

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-quarter
span

January
February
March

41.2
52.9
58.8

88.2
73.5
70.6

56

April

64.7
52.9
50.0

50.0
47.1
35.3

53

32.4
20.6
20.6

33

September

47.1
26.5
47.1

October
November
December

26.5
58.8
32.4

29.4
20.6
14.7

30

January
February
March

47.1
50.0
35.3

23.5
20.6
41.2

48

April

20.6
38.2
35.3

27

June

48.5
67.6
35.3

July
August
September

50.0
32.4
58.8

26.5
r29.4
p52.9

October
November
December

41.2
64.7
r38 2

4-Q moving
average

966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)

1-month
span

6-month
span

967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials ©
(13 industrial materials)

968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocksl ©

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing2 ®
(about 600 companies)

(4-quarter span)

1981

May
June
July

August

79.2
70.8
58.3

30.8
30.8
65.4

38.5
38.5
46.2

66.0
42.5
85.8

79.2
67.3
59.6

*60

49

83.3
62.5
45.8

54.2
58.3
45.8

69.2
26.9
38.5

46.2
46.2
53.8

81.1
30.2
67.3

59.6
44.2
42.3

59

43

56.2
62.5
45.8

31.3
20.8
16,7

61.5
61.5
42.3

61.5
42.3
23.1

19.2
40.4
0.0

46.2
32.7
9.6

•49

*41

87.5
52.1
12.5

8.3
8.3
• 10.4

38.5
26.9
46.2

23.1
23.1
15.4

58.7
65.4
67.3

14.4
10.6
34.6

p48

*34

20.8
8.3
20.8

0.0
12.5
33.3

42.3
34.6
38.5

15.4
30.8
26.9

10.6
34.6
28.8

34.6
42.3
38.5

50

p39

33.3
75.0
31.3

41.7
37.5
33.3

30.8
34.6
23.1

26.9
19.2
19.2

88.5
54.8
11.5

18.0
56.0
79.6

(NA)

(NA)

20.8
41.7
54.2

p50

60.4
52.1
41.7

r33.3
25.0
r41.7

61.5
53.8
61.5

26.9
15.4
23.1

52.9
26.5
100.0

87.8
87.8
89.8

(NA)

r25.0
r31.3
r54.2

p37.5

46.2
30.8
46.2

50.0

98.0
85.7
51.0

...

1982

May

1983

p87.5

61.5
76.9

63.3

Iff

111

p67.6

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.

'Based on 53 industries through May 1981, on 52 industries through August 1982, on 50 industries in September 1982, and on 49 industries
thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.

FEBRUARY 1983




7
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued

Q |

Year
and
quarter

1
971, New order:;, manufac, turing' ©

970. Business axpenditures for new plant and
equipment (22 industries)
a, Actual
expenditures

b. Later
anticipations

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Contmued

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

c, Early
anticipations

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade @

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and rade' ©

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

62

62
54
57
56

66
73
59
61

73
62
68
66

72
80
63
67

68
70
62
62

74
74
76
76

60
66
60
60

70
69
74
72

70
74
71
68

78
76
80
80

52
50
52
(NA)

60
68
64
60

53
52
52
(NA)

61
66
66
60

63
58
57
(NA)

65
70
72
65

(4-Q span)

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

77.3
59.1
50.0
54.5

54.5
45.5

74
63
60
60

66
75

36.4
40.9

81.8
59.1
81.8
77.3

72.7
63.6
72.7
36.4

72.7
40.9
54.5
59.1

70.5
68.2
77.3
68.2

54.5
34.1
27.3
(NA)

59.1
22.7
27.3
50.0

594
59.1
65.9
59.1

,

(4-Q span)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

57

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
45.5

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . , . ,

68

64

66

K M DIFFUSION NOEXES—Continued

Voir

rear
and
quarter

974. Number o employees,
manufacturing i nd trade' (§)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade • @

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

97(i. Selling prices, manu
factoring l ®

977, Selling prices, wholesale
trade' ©

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

978, Selling pric«s, retail
trade l ®
Actuai

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

53
1
54
53
51

54
56
48
50

67
61
64
60

62
70
53
56

90
88
90
90

37
90
33
36

92
90
92
90

90
92
87
88

92
91
94
90

90
93
84
90

51
53
52
52

56
54
56
55

62
64
62
63

63
61
66
64

88
86
84
82

38
90
39
34

90
88
84
82

90
89
89
84

94
90
86
86

90
90
92
87

48
46
46
(NA)

50
51
51
48

58
52
52
(NA)

54
56
56
50

72
68
63
(MA)

{30

72
67
68
(NA)

82
78
72
68

78
75
74
(NA)

82
81
76
72

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . .

76
58
(56

1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .

50

52

i55

68

69

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjuster except for those,
indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun S Bradstrect, Inc. Dun f
,
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76



FEBRUARY 1983

RCI)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

| Q

S L C E DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
EE T D

Diffusion index components

1982
June

July

August

1983

September

November

October

December r

January* 3

o

+

961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)
+

39.2

Percent rising of 20 components

39.2

39.0

38.8

(72)

All manufacturing industries

o

(45)

(25)

(35)

38.6
37.6

o

38.8

+

38.9

(50)

(68)

(52)

38.9

39.7
(92)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

38.7
37.8

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

+
+

40.4
38.9

+
o

40.6
38.9

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

-

39.4
39.6

+
+

Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

+
+

39.5
41.6

+

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

o
-

40.2
38.6

+
+

39.5
38.4

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

+

37.8
35.1

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

+
+

42.0
37.1

41.9
37.0

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

o
o

41.0
44.1

40.9
43.3

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

+
+

40.1
35.7

+

38.2
37.9

38.5
37.4

+

38.0
37.5

+
+

r38.5
37.6

o
o

38.5
37.6

+
+

40.6
39.0

40.3
38.8

40.2
37.8

o
+

40.2
38.0

o
+

40.2
38.2

+

40.0
38.8

+
+

41.5
39.0

39.5
39.8

39.2
39.5

38.8
39.0

+
+

38.9
39.2

+
o

r39.0
39.2

+
+

39.2
39.3

+
+

39.6
39.7

39.8
41.0

39.3
40.5

38.8
39.8

+
+

39.0
40.1

+
+

39.2
40.8

+

39.3
39.9

+
+

39.9
41,3

40.1
38.6

39.8
38.3

39.4
38.6

•o

r39.2
38.6

+

+

39.6
38.5

+
+

40.4
39.1

39.2
38.0

o

39.2
36.7

38.4
35.0

+
+

40.3
36.6

40.1
38.7

+

o

+

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers

..

....

o

+

+
+

39.5
36.8
37.7
35.2

+

o
+

40.2
36.1

39.1
38.1

+
+

39.4
39.7

+

38.2
35.0

38.1
35.2

+

+

38.2
35.0

+
+

r38.6
r35.1

41.7
36.8

+

41.5
37.0

+

+

41.7
36.9

+

r41.6
37.1

o

41.5
37.1

+
+

41.7
37.5

40.9
43.9

+
+

41.2
44.0

40.8
43.3

+

40.6
r43.9

+
+

41.0
44.5

+
+

41.2
45.3

39.6
35.7

39.0
35.2

+
+

r39.3
r35.9

+

39.7
35.5

+
+

40.3
36.2

+

70,607

+

76,593

+

80,051

39.7
36.0

39.7
39 0

964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

- 74,550

+

(35)

Percent rising of 34 components

76,446

-

72,982

+

(32)

(50)

73,266

-

(59)

r39.4
38.0

o

l2

69,598

(65)

(41)

(68)

(38)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+
-

8,617
9,389

+
-

8,660
9,368

-

8,178
8,897

-

7,983
8,668

-

6,943
8,297

+
-

7,466
8,186

+

6,655
8,426

+
+

8,277
8,921

Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery

- 13,015
- 11,705

+

12,876
12,396

+
-

13,091
11,572

+
+

13,978
12,025

-

13,824
11,115

+

12,970
12,193

+

12,488
12,473

+
-

13,109
11,877

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+ 16,347
- 15,477

+
+

17,515
15,631

-

16,084
15,160

+

14,828
15,784

-

14,267
15,152

+

14,567
15,225

+
-

21,732
14,819

+
+

22,193
15,674

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( f ) ~ rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

The "r" indicates revised: " p " ,

x

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
2

IUII FEBRUARY 1983



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

1983

1982

Diffusion index components

July

June

August

September

October

November

December**

Januaryp

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
{1967-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components * ..

138.7
(54)

138.8

138.4

137.3

135.7

134.8

135.0

(60)

+.

(52)

(42)

(25)

(31)

(54)

(88)

120.3
156.7

119.9
155.7

117.2
154.3

119.1
152.4

+
+

120.5
152.7

(NA)
(NA)

127.8
62.7

f

•»•

136,2

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

112.2
152.5

+
+

116.9
154.5

Clay, glass, and stone products ...
Primary metals

126.1
72.8

+
+

126.9
72.9

+
o

128.8
72.9

130.4
73.2

128.1
69.6

127.3
63.6

+

Fabricated metal products ..
Nonelectrical machinery

115.0
147.4

+•

115.5

+

114.3
147.2

112.3
144.9

107.6
140.4

107.0
139.6

-

147.1

106.6
138.0

+
-

107.6
137.9

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment ..

170.8
111.6

+

170.3
112.7

-

169.7
107.0

167.0
105.3

165.4
100.8

165.4
100.2

+

164.0
103.6

+
+

166.2
104.9

Instruments

164.8
136.8

+

165.2
134.7

+

165.5
133.9

161.9
132.9

157.4
129.6

155.8
129.5

157.2
130.7

+
+

158.6
132.6

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

-

122.0
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Miscellaneous manufactures .

(NA)
66.1

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products

151.0
123.6

o
-

151.0
121.4

-

150.7
120.6

149.0
113.3

151.5
110.6

+ 151.9
+ 113.0

123.7
(NA)

+

124.3

+

125.9

126.1
(NA)

125.9

-

Paper and products ....
Printing and publishing ,

146.8
142,6

+
+

147.0
143.9

+
+

152.5
145.3

154,
144,

155.0
142.0

-

154.3
141.8

+

151.6
144.0

150.6
145.5

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

193.2
124.3

+.
+

194.1
124.7

+
-

195.6
121.4

196.4
122.6

194.1
123.8

-

193.0
120.0

+

195.6
118.7

(NA)
117.0

Rubber and plastics products..
Leather and products

258.9
62.3

+

256.8
62.9

+

261.1
60.8

262.0
60.9

256.3
59.5

-

25C.2
57.7

-

248.2
55.7

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

123.1
(NA)

Mining:
Metal mining .
Coal

71.8
144.4

58.1
140.3

53.4
135.8

55.4
127.9

63.1
143.2

+
-

70.4
134.1

+

73.9
129.7

(NA)
138.5

Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

129.1
106.6

127.0
103.8

123.3
105.7

121.0
106.3

119.1
108.5

+

120.0

+

111.9

+
+

123.2
114.4

123.8
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) -: rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( ~ ) -- frilling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available,
1
a

The "r" indicates revised; " p "

Data arc seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising,,

78



FEBRUARY 1983

ItCI)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q j

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: BasicData and Directions of Change—Continued

Diffusion index components

1982
July

June

1983
October

September

August

November

December

January

February

2
A
F
967. INDEX O SPOT MARKET PRICES, R W INDUSTRIALS

R w industrials price index (1967 = 100)
a

-

232.2

+

(23)

Percent rising of 13 components

237.0

-

(62)

236.2

+

239.0

-

230.4

(46)

(62)

(54)

235.5

(31)

-

227.4

+

232.1

+

x

240.3

(62)

(46)

(77)

o 0.591
1.303

Dollars

0.465
1.025

-

0.461
1.016

+

0.481 +
1.060

0.482
1.063

+

0.485
1.069

+

0.510
1.124

+

0.552
1.217

+

0.146
0.322

+

0.166
0.366

-

0.164
0.362

-

0.148
0.326

-

0.129
0.284

-

0.114
0.251

+

0.126
0.278

+

59.000
65.036

+

59.200
65.256

+

60.000
66.138

0

60.000
66.138

o

60.000
66.138

o

60.000
66.138

+

61.250
67.516

+ 72.750

5.280
11.640

+

5.714
12.597

+

5.820
12.831

5.715
12.599

5.524
12.178

+

5.528
12.187

5.518
12.165

5.948
13.113

+

0.388
0.855

+

0.399
0.880

+

0.419
0.924

-

0.418
0.922

0.404
0.891

-

0.390
0.860

+

0.402
0.886

0.404
0.891

0.238
0.260

-

0.236
0.258

+

0.241
0.264

+

0.252
0.276

+

0.263
0.288

-

0.256
0.280

-

0.240
0.262

-

0.229
0.250

0.237
0.259

-

0.613
1.351

+

0.659
1.453

-

0.615
1.356

-

0.588
1.296

+

0.595
1.312

-

0.589
1.299

+

0.610
1.345

+

0.622
1.371

+

0.633
1.396

(yard).
(meter)..

-

0.626
0.685

-

0.588
0.643

-

0.546
0.597

+

0.555
0.607

+

0.558
0.610

+

0.567
0.620

+

0.610
0.667

o

0.610
0.667

-

0.608
0.665

...(pound).,
(kilogram)..

o

3.400
7.496

0

3.400
7.496

0

3.400
7.496

o

3.400
7.496

+

3.500
7.716

+

3.600
7.937

-

3.375
7.441

-

3.300
7.275

0

3.300
7.275

Hides

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

-

0.526
1.160

0.544
1.199

-

0.542
1.195

-

0.506
1.116

-

0.489
1.078

-

0.485
1.069

0.474
1.045

+

0.479
1.056

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

0

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

Rubber

(pound)
(kilogram)..

+

0.463
1.021

0.419
0.924

Tallow

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.176
0.388

0.144
0.317

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

-

0.427
0.941

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.142
0.313

(U.S. ton).,
(metric ton)..

-

57.800
63.713

Tin

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

5.284
11.649

Zinc

(pound)
(kilogram)..

+

Burlap

(yard).
(meter)..

-

Cotton

(pound)
(kilogram)..

Copper scrap

Lead scrap..

....

. .

Stee scrap .

Print cloth

Wool tops . . .

0.368

0.811

+

0.541
1.193

+

47.000
103.616

0

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

0

47.000
103.616

+

0.468
1.032

-

0.464
1.023

-

0.448
0.988

-

0.425
0.937

-

0.168
0.370

-

0.150
0.331

+

0.159
0.351

-

0.152
0.335

0

-

o

47.000
103.616

+

0.421 +
0.928

0.440
0.970

-

0.139
0.306

0.144
0.317

+

-

0.125
0.276
80.192

0

+

+

47.000
103.616
0.484
1.067
0.148
0.326

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for February 1-22.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis,

FEBRUARY 1983



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

^ H

217, Pgr capita
GNP in 1972
dollars

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars

Year

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

and
quarter

a. Total

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

213. Final sales
in 197? dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)

1980

....

2,575.9
2,573.4
2,643.7
2,739.4

73.0
-2.5
70.3
95.7

12,2
^0.4
11.4
15.3

1,494.9
1,457.8
1,463.8
1,479.4

5.6
-37.1
6.0
15.6

1.5
-9.6
1.6
4.3

6,593
6,413
6,421
6,472

1,497.5
1,460.3
1,472.3
1,485.7

First quarter
Second q u a r t e r . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
F o u r t h quarter . . . .

2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2

125.5
36.9
79.1
22.3

19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0

1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1

28.4
-5.6
8.2
-20.3

7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3

6,583
6,544
6,563
6,458

1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3

2,995.5
3,045.2
3,088.2
r3,101.4

-7.7
49.7
43.0
rl3.2

4-1.0
6,8
'5.8
1.7

1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.1
rl,473.9

-19.4
7.7
2.7
r-7.2

-5.1
2.1
0.7
r-1.9

6,360
6,380
6,375
r6,328

1,486.1
1,482.7
1,477.8
rl,492.6

First quarter
Second quarter

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1981

1982
First quarter
Second quarter

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1983
First quarter
Second quarter

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

Q |

Q

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued
'. 230. Total in current
1 dollars

C sposable personal income

Year
and
quarter

224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

231. Total in 1972
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
ir 19/2 dollars

227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
;ti;; dol.)

1980
Firs! quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1,766.9
1,781.0
1,845.5
1,902.9

1,022.8
1,005.5
1,018.2
1,025.7

4,511
4,423
4,466
4,487

1,618.7
1,622.2
1,682.0
1,745.8

937.0
915.8
928.0
941.0

220.8
199.0
212.7
224.7

145.4
128.9
134.6
139.5

1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4

1,035.0
1,036.6
1,048.8
1,051.9

4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559

1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5

951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4

236.9
230.4
241.2
229,6

145.3
138.6
142.2
134.1

2,117.1
2,151.5
2,198.1
r2,227.1

1,046.9
1,054.8
1,058.3
rl,060.7

4,527
4,552
4,555
r4,554

1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3
r2,031.5

949.1
955.0
956.3
r967.5

237.9
240.7
H40.3
r251.2

137.5
138.3
136.4
rl42.6

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. , , ,
....

1982
First quarter ,
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1983

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




FEBRUARY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

| M |

Year
and
quarter

iJ J GROSS PRIVATE

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

241. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars

243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980
650.6
656.7
673.7
700.5

357.8
352.7
353.7
359.0

747.3
766.6
795.6
820.6

433.9
434.3
439.7
442.5

424.0
391.0
384.1
410.3

222.7
201.9
199.2
209.6

424.6
391.4
405.3
428.0

225.3
204.4
207.8
215.9

720.6
729.6
741.3
746.5

361.6
361.7
363.0
363.1

842.4
859.4
886.3
908.3

444.2
444.3
446.2
446.2

455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9

221.6
229.5
233.4
218.9

443.5
450.9
454.2
455.7

219.2
217.4
216.9
214.1

749.1
755.0
768.4
r775.3

362.2
364.5
365.9
r367.5

932.4
952.1
977.6
r l , 005.0

449.5
452.2
454.0
r457.4

414.8
431.5
443.3
r392.4

195.4
202.3
206.3
rl83,8

450.4
447.7
438.6

210.8
206.7
202.9
r202.6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r436.6

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
• •

Year
and
quarter

GROSS PRIVATE

• S I

DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

| M
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-0.7
-0.4
-21.2
-17.7

-2.6
-2.5
-8.5
-6.2

519.2
536.0
538.5
559.8

284.7
286.9
283.4
283.2

189.6
198.8
193.3
207.0

106.4
109.1
105.5
104.8

329.6
337.2
345.2
352.8

178.3
177.8
177.9
178.4

12.2
24.6
31.8
13.2

2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8

578,1
583.2
600.2
626.3

286.8
283.9
286.4
291.3

217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5

107.9
107.0
110.7
116.0

361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7

179.0
176.9
175.7
175.3

-35.6
-16.2
4.7
r-44.2

-15.4
-4.4
3.4
r-18.7

630.1
630.9
651,7
r676.7

289.2
285.3
291.1
r299.2

249.7
244.3
259.0
r277.9

114.4
110.3
116.2
rl24.1

380.4
386.6
392.7
r398.9

174.9
175.0
174.9

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

rl75.1

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

FEBRUARY 1983




81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

^ 9

Year
and
quarter

255. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann . rate
bil. dot.)

(Anr . rate
bil dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

257. Constan
(1972) dollars

253. Current
dollars

256. Constant
(1972) dollars

252. Current
dollars

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

220. National income in current
cJars

mports o goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars

• M
Bil

FOREIGN TRADE,

(Ann rate,
bit dol.)

280. Compensation of
o m n 1' u o ^ c

empkyees

(Ann. rate,
riil. dol.)

1980

14.0
24.2
39.0
23.5

50.5
53.2
53.1
45.6

335.7
337.3
337.2
346.7

164.
161.
155.
155.

4
2
9
1

321.
313.
298.
323.

7
1
2
2

113.9
108 .0
102 .8
109 .6

2,079.7
2,067.2
2,122.3
2,199.2

1,555, 2
1,571. 7
1,604. 9
1,662 8

31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5

48.2
44.2
39.2
36.5

365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9

159.
159.
157.
156.

3
7
8
9

334.
345.
341.
344.

2
1
3
4

111 .1
115 .5
118 .7
120 .4

2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5

1,718. C
1,750. C
1,789. 1
1,813. 4

31.3
34.9
6.9
r0.8

First quarter . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

36.9
35.7
27.5
r23.3

359.9
365.8
349.5
r321.5

151. 7
154. 4
147. 5

328.
330.
342.
r320.

6
9
5
7

114 .7
118 .7
120.0
rll2 .2

2,396,9
2,425,2
2,455.6
(NA)

1,830 8
1,850. 7
1,868.3
rl,875. 9

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

rl35. 5

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter , . . .

J J J NATIONAL INCOME
282. Proprietors'
and
quarter

284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment

income with inven
tory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

D

WD ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consump
tion adjustments
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

290. Gross saving
(private and governmerit)

SVG
AN
I

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
biL del.)

(Ann. rate,
t)il. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

97. 9

7
9
5
0

30
32
33
34

8
7
8
2

195 .3
172 .2
177 .8
181 .2

175 7
181 .6
190 .4
203 0

410
395
404
414

8
8
4
0

322.3
330.2
335.5
340.3

108. 6
113. 1
105, 3

123. 4

34
34
33
33

4
0
6
6

200 .3
185 .1
193 .1
183 .9

217 .6
231 6
244 0
249 5

461
482
490
476

4
4
0
3

362.7
367.0
379.1
389.1

105.9
122. 0
134. 4
158. 6

33 9
34 2
34 6
33. 9

157 .1
155 .4
166 2

258 7
267 5
268 1
r266 4

428 8
441 5
422 4
(NA)

380.3
384.6
394.2
(NA)

139. 1
144. 3
152. 0

122.
108.
115.
118.

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

123. 8
127. 5
124. 1

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

116. 4
117. 3
118. 4
rl29. 3

(NA)

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.

82



FEBRUARY 1983

rl35. 5

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q

Year
and
quarter

SAVING—Continued

298. Government
surplus or deficit,
tftfal

loiai

Q

293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

251. Net exports of
goods and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment

(Percent)

1980
-10.6
-44.2
-45.9
-32.2

5.5
6.1
6.1
5.5

62.8
63.0
63.6
63.7

12.1
11.7
11.6
11.6

4.4
3.5
3.7
4.0

0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.6

0.5
0.9
1.5
0.9

-8.3
-7.6
-24.5
-72.5

5.4
6.1
6.5
7.5

62.8
62.7
62.7
62.7

11.5
11.8
11.8
12.0

4.0
3.8
3.4
3.2

0.4
0.8
1.1
0.4

1.1
0.8
0.9
0.8

-90.7
-87.5
-123.7
(NA)

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

6.6
6.7
6.9

64.1
64.0
64.3
r65.5

11.9
11.6
11.1
10.9

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2

-1.2
-0.5
0.2
r-1.4

1.0
1.1
0.2

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r6.1

rO.O

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

^

SHARES 0 " GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued

Percent of national income

Percent of GNP—Continued

Year

and
quarter

265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services

64. Compensation of
employees

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj'

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj»

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj»

(Percent)

1980
First quarter
Sucond quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

7.4
7.7
7.3
7.6

12.8
13.1
13.1
12.9

74.8 •
76.0
75.6
75.6

5.9
5.3
5.4
5.4

1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6

9.4
8.3
8.4
8.2

8.4
8.8
9.0
9.2

7.6
7.5
7.7
8.3

12.6
12.6
12.4
12.5

74.9
75.3
74.9
75.4

5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2

1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4

8.7
8.0
8.1
7.6

10.0
10.2
10.4

8.3
8.0
8.4

12.7
12.7
12.7
12.9

76.4
76.3
76.1
(NA)

4.9
4.8
4.8

1.4
1.4
1.4

6.6
6.4
6.8

(HA)

(NA)

(NA)

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

9.5

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r9.0

10.8
11.0
10.9
(NA)

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Sea note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and: 47.
1

IVA) inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

ItUI

FEBRUARY 1983




83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

E l PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1972-100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index

(1972 = 100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann; rate,
percent)

Consumer prices, all terns
320. Index ©

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans l

(1967-100)

(Percent)

Consumer prices, food

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Ann. rate, •
percent)

Revised 2

1981
January
February
March

19C>!6

April
May
June

193^2

July
August
September

197.4

October
November
December

201'. 6

10.9

Revised2

322c, Charge
over 1-month
spans •

Revised 2

(Ann, rate,
percent)

Revised 2

(1967-100)

322c, Change
over 6-month
spns'

(Percent)

322. Index

Revised 2

260.5
263.2
265.1

0.7
0.8
0.8

9.9
9.6
9.1

268.9
270.3
272.0

0.4
0.5
0.6

6.9
4.7
3.8

266.8
269.0
271.3

0.4
0.9
0.8

10.0
10.1
10.6

272.3
272.4
272.9

0.1
0.0
0.2

4.8
4.9
4.5

9.3

274.4
276.5
279.3

1.1
0.8
1.0

10.5
9.6
8.8

275.3
276.9
278.0

0.9
0.6
0.4

4.8
4.8
4.8

7.4

279.9
280.7
281.5

0.4
0.5
0.4

6.9
5.3
3.1

278.7
278.9
279.4

0.3
0.1
0.2

4.4
4.2
3.5

4.4

282.5
283.4
283.1

0.3
0.1
0.0

2.9
4.0
5.5

281.3
282.6
282.8

0.7
0.5
0.1

3.3
4.7
5.6

3.8

284.3
287.1
290.6

0.2
1.0
1.1

6.1
6.6
6.9

283.3
285.4
287.1

0.2
0,7
C.6

4.5
3.1
3.4

5.9

6.8

10.4

8.6

197] i

292.2
292.8
293,3

0.6
0.3
0.1

7.2
5.1
2.3

287.6
286.9
287.5

0.2
-0.2
0.2

3.4
2.0
0.7

294,1
293.6
292.4

0.4
0.0
-0.3

1.4

288.1
288.2
288.1

0.2
0.0
0.0

0.5

293.1

0.2

288.3

0.1

20L 2

9.0
205 .*7

8.8
209^4

!

1982
January
February
March

203! 7

April
May
June

206^6

4.3

..

July
August .
September

r210.*4

4.6
213!8

208! 5

October
November
December

21K8

5.0
216.8

r3.7

r4.0
r219.0

1983
January
February
March .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter,
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

84



FEBRUARY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q

Producer Kices, industrial commodities

Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index (u)

(1967 = 100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans' (§)

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' (§)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index @

(1967 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans' ®

(Percent)

Producer prices, crude materials

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans' (u)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967 = 100)
Revised 2

1981

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

(Percent)
Revised 2

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised2

January
February
March

284.8
287.6
290.3

1.4
1.0
0.9

11.5
11.0
10.2

291.5
295.7
299.6

1.7
1.4
1.3

15.8
15.6
13.3

330.0
332.6
330.6

0.9
0.8
-0.6

5.0
1.9
5.1

April
May
June

293.4
294.1
294.8

1.1
0.2
0.2

8.2
6.2
3.8

303.5
304.7
305.1

1.3

0.4
0.1

10.3
7.9
5.3

333.6
332.4
335.5

0.9
-0.4
0.9

3.7
0.2
-1.9

July
August
September

296.2
296.4
295.7

0.5
0.1
-0.2

1.8
1.0
0.7

306.2
307.2
307.4

0.4
0.3
0.1

3.7
3.0
3.2

336.1
333.0
327.4

0.2
-0.9
-1.7

-6.5

-8.4
-11.8

October
November
December

296.1
295.5
295.3

0.1
-0.2
0.1

1.4
1.5
1.6

309.0
309.3
310.0

0.5
0.1
0.2

3.7
2.9
2.4

322.5
318.1
315.1

-1.5
-1.4
-0.9

-9.2
-8.9
-6.3

January
February
March

298.3
298.6
298.0

0.8
0.1
-0.2

1.3
2.1
2.4

311.8
311.6
311.0

0.6
-0.1
-0.2

0.6
0.2
0.4

320.2
317.9
317.0

1.6
-0.7
-0.3

-1.1
5.3
6.9

April
May
Juno

298.0
298.6
299.3

0.0
0.2
0.2

1.4
1.1
rO.9

309.9
309.6
310.6

-0.4
-0.1
0.3

0.6
1.0
rl.l

320.8
326.4
325.8

1.2
1.7
-0.2

1.2
0.8
-1.0

300.4
300.2
r299.3

0.4
-0.1
r-0.3

1.3
1.2
0.9

312.8
313.2
r312.7

0.7
0.1
r-0.2

2.9
3.6
2.9

322.1
319.1
315.4

-1.1
-0.9
-1.2

-4.0
-5.4
-5.6

299.9
300.4
300.6

r0.2
0.2
0.1

-0.3

314.4
315.1
315.0

0.5
0.2
0.0

0.8

314.4
317.4
316.5

-0.3
1.0
-0.3

-4.0

300.0

-0.2

314.0

-0.3

315.6

-0.3

1982

July .
August
September
October . . .
November . . . . . . .
December
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
'Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

FEBRUARY 1983



8
5

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

^ M

Producer prices, intermediate materials
Year

332. Index

and

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans l

month

Producer prices, capital equipment

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans!

(1967-100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 2

1981

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

Revised2

Revised2

Producer prices, finished consumer piaods

333c. Change

333c. Change

over 1-month

333. Index

over 6-month
spans]

spans'

(1967 = 100)
Revised2

334. Index

334:. Chanp
ovgr I-month
spans'

334;;. Change
ovr 6-month
spans '

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann, rate,
percent)

Revised 2

Revised2

Revised 2

Revised2

Rovised2

297.0
298.3
301.1

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1.1
1.0
0.8

10.1
10.5
11.0

262.2
264.8
267.7

0,9
1.0
1.1

10.7
9.7
9.6

1.0
0.5
0.5

7.3
7.7
5.9

260.2
262.3
264.1

0.8
0.8
0.7

9.8
8.8
8.1

270.3
270.8
272.1

:.o
0,2
0.5

8.2
6.2
4.9

0.2
0.7
0.1

4.1
3.4
2.6

265.6
267.1
268.4

0.6
0.6
0.5

7.9
7.8
7.3

272.8
272.9
274.2

0.3
0.0
0.5

3.7
3.8
3.6

0.1
0.1
0.1

2.8
0.9
-0.2

270.3
272.3
273.6

0.7
0.7
0.5

7.1
5.6
5.7

275.3
275.9
277.0

0.4
0.2
0.4

3.8
4.0
2.1

311.9
311.0
309.6

April
May . . .

253.5
256.1
258.1

310.3
310.7
311.0

March

11.4
10.6
9.4

307.6
309.6
309.9

February

1.2
0.4
0.9

304.2
305.6
307.0

January

0.3
-0.3
-0.5

-1.2
-1.3
-0.8

274.9
274.5
276.0

0.5
-0.1
0.5

4.6
4.1
4.4

278.0
278.3
277.0

0.4
0.1
-0.5

1.5
0.7
2.2

308.4
308.7
309.7

-0.4
0.1
0.3

-1.0
-0.4
0.8

276.5
277.8
279.5

0.2
0.5
0.6

4.1
5.8
4.3

277.3
276.9
280.0

0.1
-0.1
1.1

2.S
3.1
4.4

310.3
310.3
310.8

0.2
0.0
0.2

1.6
2.1
1.4

280.5
282.3
281.9

0.4
0.6
-0.1

4.4
4.0
3.7

281.6
282.6
283.0

0.5
0.4
0.1

5.1
6.8
4.7

310.9
311.9
311.8

0.0
0.3
0.0

0.3

282.5
283.3
284.6

0.2
0.3
0.5

2.7

284.3
286.1

0.8

286.5

0.5
0.6
0.1

310.8

--0.3

284.3

-0.1

282. S

-1.4

1982
January .
February
March
April
May

.

June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

. . . . . . . . . . .

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page I
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

^Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

86



FEBRUARY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

^ J

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjustec

Year
and
month

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

340c. Change
over 1 -month
spans2

Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2

341. Index

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1981

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(3)

(1977 = 100)

(3)

345. Index

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

n

(1977 = 100)

January
February
March

133.7
134.8
135.7

0.8
0.8
0.6

9.1
8.6
8.9

92.8
92.7
92.7

0.2
-0.2
0.1

-0.6
-0.4
0.6

139.2

April
May
June

136.6
137.6
138.4

0.7
0.8
0.6

8.1
8.7
8.7

93.0
93.0

-1.3
-0.3
-1.3

141.6

92.9

0.3
0.0
-0.1

July
August
September

139.1
140.5
141.4

0.5
1.1
0.6

8.1
8.0
7.6

92.2
92.5
92.1

-0.8
0.3
-0.4

-2.0
-1.4
-1.4

144.7

October
November
December

142.0
143.0
143.5

0.4
0.7
0.3

8.6
6.4
5.7

92.1
92.3
92.3

-0.1
0.3
-0.1

1.6
0.5
2.6

147^4

January
February
March

144.9
145.0
145.4

1.0
0.1
0.3

6.3
6.6
6.6

r93.1
r93.1
r93.5

0.7
rO.O
r0.4

3.7
3.0
1.7

150.1

April
May
June

146.3
147.7
148.1

0.6
0.9
0.3

5.7
6.8
6.5

93.7
r93.6
r92.9

rO.2
-0.1
-0.7

r-0.6
rO.O
r-0.6

152^3

July
August
September

148.9
149.9
150.1

0.5
0.6
0.1

6.2

r4.9
r5.4

r92.8
r93.1
93.2

-0.1
r0.3
rO.l

r-1.1
r-0.2
r3.0

154!7

October
November
December

150.8
rl51.2
rl52.1

0.5
0.2
0.6

93.2
r93.5
r94.3

rO.O
r0.3
r0.9

p4.1

P152.7

pO.4

p94.7

p0.4

11.8
9^4
6.9
8^9
9.2
7.8
7.5

7.6

1982

P 5.1

7.7

6\9
5.9

r6\5

6.5

rl56.9

r5.7

1983

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graptis of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1983




87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
and
month

!

(1977 = 100)

346c, Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries (§)

i 348. First year
average changes

Real compensation
346. Index

W G S AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
AE

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output )er hour, all persons , private
business sector
370. Index

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
Spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann, rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour
ail persons,
nonfarm
business sector

(19/7-100)

1981
0.4

January
February
March

95-7

April
May
June

95*7

July
August
September

95*1

October
November
December

95* i

7.7

7.2

-0.1

-6*6
-2.5

11.6

10.8

10.5

6*7

2*2

8.1

11.0

ioi'6

5.8

100*4

6*9

IOO'O

-6! 7

ioo' 6

-0.4

0.0

100.7

0*4

-0.3

5.6

ioo! 7

-1*2

99! i

6*2

99*2

1.1

-2.9

100.2

1982
4.3

January . . .
February
March

96* i

April
May . . . .
June . . . .

96." 4

July
August
September

1.9

1.2

96*1

October . .
November
December

i'i

1.3

2.6

r2.0

rl.9
-1.0

-1.0
IOO'O

1.4
100.'3

r6.2

r4.7

P2!6

3.6

io6! 3

101*2

r3.0

p3.0

99.4

p4.9

p4.1
plO2*2

rlOO.8

1983
January . ,
February .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these sories are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Changes are centered within the spans:
on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month oi the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed

FEBRUARY 1983

IUII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

D

1 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE ANDMAJOR COMPONENTS

Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rates

448. Number em-

Number unemployed

ployed
Year

442. Em-

451. Males

452. Females

453. Both

444. Males

445. Females

ployed

20 years

20 years

sexes, 16-19

20 years

20 years

and over

441. Total

and

and over

years of age

and over

and over

month

37. Total

446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

447. Fulltime
workers

part-time
for economic

reasons

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

79.1
79.1
79.2

51.8
51.9
52.0

56.6
56.5
56.3

8,048
8,032
7,967

3,479
3,500
3,439

2,809
2,766
2,765

1,760
1,766
1,763

6,620
6,602
6,541

4,467
4,182
4,222

101,006
100,968
100,393

79.3
79.4
78.9

52.2
52.4
52.2

56.9
56.2
54.4

7,860
8,133
8,047

3,353
3,540
3,492

2,760
2,846
2,830

1,747
1,747
1,725

6,429
6,617
6,581

4,149
4,242
4,088

108,602
108,762
108,375

100,748
100,709
100,104

78.9
78.9
78.7

52.2
52.1
51.7

54.5
55.2
54.9

7,854
8,053
8,271

3,343
3,513
3,559

2,867
2,849
2,953

1,644
1,691
1,759

6,428
6,473
6,762

4,432
4,448
4,612

109,028
109,254
109,066

100,355
100,229
99,677

78.7
78.7
78.8

52.3
52.4
52.2

54.9
55.0
53.9

8,673
9,025
9,389

3,815
4,026
4,367

3,043
3,105
3,174

1,815
1,894
1,848

7,137
7,442
7,990

4,948
5,005
5,325

109,034
109,364
109,478

99,688
99,695
99,597

78.6
78.7
78.6

52.2
52.3
52.5

54.2
54.5
53.8

9,346
9,669
9,881

4,362
4,451
4,607

3,109
3,286
3,402

1,875
1,932
1,872

7,822
8,000
8,346

5,066
5,489
5,611

June

109,740
110,378
110,147

99,484
99,994
99,681

78.7
78.9
78.8

52.5
52.8
52.9

54.2
55.2
53.0

10,256
10,384
10,466

4,770
4,818
5,016

3,528
3,568
3,565

1,958
1,998
1,885

8,575
8,689
8,878

5,750
5,731
5,561

Ju y
August
September

110,416
110,614
110,858

99,588
99,683
99,543

78.8
78.7
79.0

53.0
53.0
52.9

53.2
54.2
54.3

10,828
10,931
11,315

5,150
5,232
5,578

3,672
3,671
3,710

2,006
2,028
2,027

9,036
9,209
9,622

5,577
5,820
6,495

October

110,752
111,042
111,129

99,176
99,136
99,093

78.9
78.9
78.7

52.8
52.9
53.1

54.1
54.4
53.9

11,576
11,906
12,036

5,714
5,865
5,909

3,824
3,989
4,071

2,038
2,052
2,056

9,942
10,127
10,285

6,403
6,411
6,425

110,548

99,103

78.1

52.9

53.5

11,446

5,597

3,963

1,886

9,810

6,845

(Thous.)

108,012
108,175
108,471

99,964
100,143
100,504

June

108,866
109,101
108,440

July
August
September
October

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

1981
January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1982
January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1983
January
February
March
April
May
Jure
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .

FEBRUARY 1983




OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

DEFENSE INDICATORS

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

State and local governmentsl

Federal Government'
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

Advance measures of defense activity

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or de'ficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil, dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

525. Defense
Department
military prtroe
contract
awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

548. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. del.)

(Mil. dol.)

2

2

C )

1981

C)

January . .
February .
March . . .

-39.7

620.0

659.7

31.3

410.0

378.6

14,808
15,741
15,560

7,155
7,514
7,590

82,087
83,608
84,883

4,341
340
198

April . . . .
May . . . .
June . . . .

- 4 0 .,5

627.0

667.5

32.9

415.2

382.2

15,210
15,699
15,156

8,505
7,967
7,041

84,994
85,165
86,126

4,153
4,842
4,680

July . . . .
August . .
September

-58.0

640.2

698.2

33.5

420.3

386.9

16,836
17,374
16,584

8,845
9,504
9,325

87,968
89,857
91,896

5,010
5,010
5,927

October . .
November
December

-101.7

625.7

727.4

29.1

421.5

392.4

12,892
15,674
19,805

4,466
9,817
9,049

91,354
92,575
93,827

4,109
5,003
5,644

January
February
March

-118.4

609.9

728.3

27.7

424.2

396.5

19,361
20,608
18,869

9,756
13,761
9,870

98,818
102,677
105,418

6,573
7,213
7,065

April , ,
May . .
June . ,

-119.6

617.0

736.6

32.1

434.3

402.2

20,793
17,786
17,503

10,518
9,657
14,296

108,428
108,841
109,654

6,174
4,775
5,437

July
August . . ,
September

-156.0

613.7

769.7

32.3

440.5

408.2

17,669
16,448
18,387

8,610
8,928
10,296

110,885
110,787
111,857

4,684
5,314
4,335

(NA)

<NA)

r816.2

(NA)

(NA)

r414.3

16,476
18,599
p24,396

5,423
10,209

111,866
113,647
119,788

41(821
5,091
r 11,309

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1982

October . .
November
December

1983
January .
February
March . .
April .
May .
June .
July
August . . .
September .
October , , .
November .
December .
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
Based on national income and product accounts.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

90



FEBRUARY 1983

p8,807

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
1 1 ) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued

DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Output of
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

580. Defense
Department
net outlays

(1967 = 100)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment in defense products
industries

(Mil.dol.)

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty ©

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment ®

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services

565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Percent)

1

C)

1981
January .
February
March . .

100.9
100.5
100.7

10,918
11,154
11,406

63,458
65,143
65,468

12,639
12,932
12,619

3,427
3,655
3,873

1,391
1,388
1,390

2,056
2,061
2,062

973
972
974

143.1

5.0

April . . .
May . . .
June . . .

101.5
102.0
101.7

11,627
11,760
12,155

65,852
66,940
67,758

12,833
13,433
13,264

3,768
3,754
3,863

1,393
1,393
1,394

2,060
2,064
2,070

980
990
1,008

150.5

5.2

July
August . .
September

102.6
102.8
103.0

12,163
12,217
12,492

68,799
69,711
71,650

13,889
13,809
14,014

3,968
4,099
3,988

1,394
1,396
1,396

2,082
2,084
2,083

1,023
1,017
984

154.4

5.2

October . .
November
December

104.5
105.3
107.0

12,618
12,962
13,154

71,701
72,560
73,919

14,227
14,548
15,298

4,057
4,145
4,285

1,391
1,384
1,389

2,090
2,097
2*093

998
1,006
1,009

166.9

5.6

January
February . . . .
March

105.
106.
107.0

13,334
13,598
13,857

76,490
79,329
81,905

14,152
14,689
15,075

4,002
4,374
4,490

1,385
1,378
1,376

104
109
107

1,008
1,013
1,018

166.2

5.5

April
May
June

107.
107.
107,

13,946
14,029
14,227

83,808
83,914
84,530

15,670
15,379
15,334

4,271
4,669
4,821

1,373
1,369
1,367

106
104
108

1,022
1,028
1,045

176.2

5.8

July
August
September . . .

109,
109,
109.5

14,205
14,459
14,869

84,413
85,081
84,557

16,312
15,050
16,881

4,800
4,647
4,859

1,368
1,358
1,360

110
109
2,109

1,051
1,043
990

182.7

5.9

October
November . . .
December , . .

rill.9
113.6
rll4.6

15,204
15,351
15,830

84,452
84,593
r90,800

15,972
17,087
rl6,779

4,925
4,951
r5,100

1,356
rl,355
pi,350

2,108
2,114
2,113

1,016
1,024
1,027

rl89.4

6.1

P115.5

(NA)

p94,602

pl7,068

p5,005

(NA)

p2,118

1,024

1982

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . , .
See note on page 80.
Gniphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
l

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/ page

FEBRUARY 1983



in.

91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q |

Year
and
month

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

604, Exports of agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

612. General imports,
total

(Mil.dol.)

(M

C)

614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products

616. Imports of
automobiles and parts

(Mil.dol.)

(MiUol.)

C)

(Mil.dol.)

1

1981

MERCHANDISE TRADE

C
M

January
February
March

18,902
19,788
21,278

4,295
3,977
4,201

4,058
4,155
4,352

22,616
21,916
21,029

7,359
8,018
5,992

2,264
1,742
2,125

April
May
June

19,786
18,899
19,750

3,604
3,708
3,256

4,311
4,160
4,388

22,249
21,232
22,005

6,919
6,329
6,531

2,042
2,299
2,257

July
August
September

19,289
19,031
19,551

3,089
3,202
3,563

4,567
6,207
4,559

20,114
23,242
21,274

5,400
6,335
5,709

2,108
2,635
1,943

October
November
December

19,163
19,153
18,885

3,735
3,442
3,220

4,338
4,366
4,005

23,077
22,508
19,746

6,123
6,483
4,636

2,464
2,239
2,164

January
February
March

18,737
18,704
18,602

3,258
3,590
3,225

4,346
4,054
3,997

22,829
19,090
20,349

6s810
4,396
4,290

2,389
2,135
2,596

April
May
June

17,843
18,218
18;, 822

3,400
3,527
3,332

3,932
3,957
4,211

17,387
20,558
21,310

r3,894
r4,180
r4,855

r2,785
r2,626

July
August
September

18,026
17,498
17,387

2,789
2,763
2,648

4,305
3,856
4,197

19,559
23,494
20,644

r5,624
r5,731
r4,903

r2,455
r2,795
r2,370

October
November
December

16,698
15,693
16,335

2,681
2,783
2,637

3,829
3,686
3,719

21,096
18,936
18,865

r5,433
r4,757
4,694

r2,444
r2,130
2,189

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1982

r2,389

1983
January . , .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page

92



in.

FEBRUARY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q |

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)

Goods and services
Year
and
month

668. Exports

667, Balance

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Income on investments

Merchandise, adjusted '
669. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil.dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

620. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

651. U.S. investments abroad

(Mil.dol.)

652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States

(Mil.dol.)

1981
January
February
March

4,667

93,280

88,ei3

-4,3i2

60,683

64,995

20,528

12,405

April
May
June

2,909

94,389

91,480

-6,547

60,284

66,831

21,642

13,441

July
August
September

2,559

92,965

90,406

-7,845

57,694

65,539

22,048

13,865

October
November
December

943

92,259

91,3i6

-9,185

57,593

66,778

21,727

13,198

January
February
March

3,123

90,193

87,070

r-5,937

r55,607

r61,544

20,890

14,029

April
May
June

3,971

91,266

87,295

r-5,762

r55,002

r60,764

22,562

14,874

July
August
September

p-2,574

p88,058

p90,632

r-12,508

r52,318

r64,826

p21,880

pl4,462

October
November
December

(NA)

1982

...
(NA)

(NA)

p-11,906

p48,228

p60,134

(NA)

(NA)

1983
January
February
ft/lurch . . . .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

FEBRUARY 1983



9
3

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q j

47. United States,
index of industrial production

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

721. O C '
ED
European countries, index of
industrial
production

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

725, Wesit
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

151.4
151.8
152.1

154
159
158

237.2
237.0
237.7

156
164
160

156

June

1151.9
152.7
152.9

156
155

238.0
235.2
240,7

July . . . ;
August
September

153.9
153.6
151.6

158
152
158

October

149.1
146.3
143.4

Year
and

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

Ul, Italy, index
of industrial
production

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

month

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

1981

March
April
May

November
December

116
117
117

158.6
170.3
169.3

163.8
166.0
168.0

160

156

117

160
156

159
160

116
118

168.4
158.0
159.8

169.7
170.2
172.7

243,1
240.7
245.6

157
157
160

157
157
160

118
118

165.2
137.2
164.1

170.4
164.5
163.8

158
158
156

248.3
248,4
247.1

160
157
156

160
160
163

121
120
118

rl58.4
rl68.1
rl60.4

161.3
158.4
157.2

140.7
142.9
141.7

156
159
158

245.8
244.0

247a

157
161
161

156
156
157

118
118
120

rl61.9
rl69.8
rl65.9

rl56.2
rl54.7
rl52.5

rl56
156

242.6
238.3

160
157

156
159

120
120

13"+

OAA 1
tHt . 1

1 c i4
1 3*+

1 ^Q
1 3-7

i ift

rl64.8
rl62.7
rl54.9

rl50.5
rl51.8
rl48.0

138.8
138.4
137.3

151
rl51
rl52

245.0
244.3
247.1

149
154
152

152
152
154

rll8
rll8
120

rl53.fi
rl46.4
rl53.9

rH3.3
rl49.5
rl44.5

rl35.7
134.8
rl.35.0

February

156
159
157

140.2
139.2
138.7

January

pl52
(NA)

r239.7
P246.8
(NA)

150
pl50
(NA)

156
pl56
(NA)

120
pi 17
(NA)

rl49.7
pl55.5
(NA)

rl40.0
rl40.9
pl39.7

rll8

1982
January

. ,

February

.,

March
April
May
June
July .
August .
September

..

October
November
December
1983

(NA)

P136.2

January
February
March
April
May
June . ,

, .

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



FEBRUARY 1983

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q
United States
Year
and
month

320. Index (g)

(1967-100)

Japan

320c, Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised 2

1981

CONSUMER PRICES

738, Index ®

West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

735. Index <u)

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

736. Index ©

United kingdom

736c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

732. Index ©

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

C2)

C2)

C)

(2)

(2)

C2)

(2)

C2)

January
February
March

260.5
263.2
265.1

9.9
9.6
9.1

291.1
290.8
292.2

4.4
3.1
3.8

180.9
182.3
183.5

6.6
6.2
5.7

312.7
315.6
318.8

13.2

13.0
13.0

445.5
449.5
456.2

13.0
12.1
11.6

April
May
June

266.8
269.0
271.3

10.0
10.1
10.6

294.5
297.0
297.3

2.6
2.9
3.2

184.7
185.4
186.3

6.3
6.7
6.9

323.1
326.0
329.2

13.8
14.3
15.3

469.4
472.4
475.2

12.5
12.1
10.7

July
August
September

274.4
276.5
279.3

10.5
9.6
8.8

296.4
294.7
299.5

3.9
4.1
4.2

187.1
187.7
188.6

6.9
7.1
6.9

334.9
339.0
342.9

14.9
15.7
15.1

477.3
480.8
483.5

10.4
11.8
12.5

October
November
December

279.9
280.7
281.5

6.9
5.3
3.1

300.7
299.8
299.8

4.0
3.3
2.4

189.2
190.1
190.7

6.3
4.8
3.5

347.1
350.3
352.4

13.9
13.6
13.0

487.9
493.0
496.1

11.5
9.9
10.0

January
February
March

282.5
283.4
283.1

2.9
4.0
5.5

300.7
299.8
300.4

1.9
0.5
0.1

192.3
192.8
193.1

3.0
3.5
4.9

356.0
359.6
363.8

13.0
12.0
12.0

499.0
499.1
503.5

8.4
7.3
6.0

April
May
June

284.3
287.1
290.6

6.1
6.6
6.9

302.9
303.8
303.8

-0.5
2.9
4.0

194.0
195.2
197.1

4.9
5.4
6.3

368.2
371.1
373.7

9.9
8.2
7.2

513.6
517.3
518.9

6.0
6.0
4.7

July
August
September

292.2
292.8
293.3

7.2
5.1
2.3

301.5
303.8
309.1

4.4
4.1
3.7

197.6
197.3
197.9

6.8
5.9
4.0

374.7
375.9
377.5

5.8
6.9
7.3

518.9
519.0
518.7

5.3
5.3
4.2

October
November .
December

294.1
293.6
292.4

1.4

310.0
306.6
306.0

•(NA)

198.5
198.9
199.4

(NA)

379.5
383.2
386.4

(NA)

521.3
523.9
522.9

4,0

1982

1983
January
February
March

293.1

<NA)

(NA)

(NA)

523.5

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

ItCil

FEBRUARY 1983




95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

1
S

Italy

Year
and
month

CONSUMER PRICES-Continued
Canada

\ 737. Index © 737c. Change

733. Index ©

over 6-month
spans l

(1967 = 100)

n

1981

(Ann. rate,
percent)

C)

(1967 = 100)
2

. Q j STOCK PRICES

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices (u)

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices <g)

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ®

742. United
Kingdom
index of
stock
prices @

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices @

index of
stock
prices ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 -100}

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

C)

(2):
13.1
12.2
13.2

144.6
139.7
144.9

457.9
458.2
467.3

115.3
114.0
116.3

191.1
201.1

110.0

209.4

2159.0
269.0
273.2

122.1
125.9

223.7
218.6
233.9

122.7
122.1
126.1

197.7
162.5
152.3

293. Z
295.6
289.0

132.4
135.9
123.5

232.3
245.7
242.9

534.4
540.7
511.3

127.5
122.5
122.5

168.9
177.4
176.5

284.8
398.6
278.9

99.1
112.0
99.1

232.3
231.6
192.3

130.3
133.7
134.7

493.8
505.6
512.7

118.8
118.0
117.7

163.9
169.2
170.7

259.5
278.0
284.2

91.2
93.8
96.9

190.4
208.9
201.2

10.5
11.4
11.4

127.6
124.6
120.6

518.9
516.9
486.2

116.8
118.4
120.1

185.7
193.1
145.9

291.1
300.1
298.8

95.0
98.8
104.2

185.3
176.7
173.1

297.5
301.5
304.5

11.1
10.2
9.5

126.5
126.6
119.7

484.5
503.4
489.6

120.6
117.6
114.2

184.8
183.3
166.3

303.2
315.4
314.6

96.7
91.0
83.1

171.2
168.4
153.8

20.6
19.8
19.1

306.1
307.6
309.2

9.4
8.2
7.2

119.0
119.3
133.2

480.8
474.3
481.6

113.5
112.3
115.6

161.1
169.3
168.4

313,2
320.1
343.5

78.4
86.1
85.8

156.8
177.4
177.3

(NA)

311.2
313.3
313.4

5.7

144.3
150.2
151.6

490.4
512.7
528.2

118.2
118.8
124.3

170.7
174.5
rpl76.0

360.7
372.0
p364.8

36.4
87.6
91.2

192.6
189.7
P193.1

156.9
pl58.4

533.3
P534.7

126.0
P129.8

rpl81.2
P187.5

rp371.5
P381.5

rplO8.8
P124.7

rp209.4
p215.3

440.7
449.1
455.4

20.1
20.1

19.3

259.1
261.7
265.2

June

461.3
468.7
473.9

18.9
18.2
16.8

267.2
269.6
273.8

12.3
12.3
11.9

146.2
143.3
143.9

494.6
502.8
515.2

July
August
September

477.7
481.0
487.7

17.7
16.8
17.0

276.2
278.2
280.2

12,2
12.2
11.0

140.5
141.0
128.7

October
November
December

497.5
506.0
511.1

15.8
15.3
15.6

283.0
285.4
286.7

10.6
10.9
11.2

517.7
524.4
529.1

13.8
13.6
13.1

288.7
292.1
295.8

533.9
539.8
545.2

15.9
19.0
18,7

July
August
September

553.4
563.4
571.3

October
November
December

582.7
590.3
594.4

January
February
March

..

April
May

743. Canada,

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks <g)

1982
January
February
March

.

April
May
June

..

...

..

...

1983
January
February
March
April
May

(NA)
.

312.5

,

June
July
August
September
October . . . ,
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

96



FEBRUARY 1983

APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1982

Series

1983

July

13. New business incorporations

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

85.9

80.1

88.3

97.1

124 1

144.9

105 9

101.7

1

Sept.

111.6

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance

Aug.

97.0

99.8

98.9

91.5

103,9

96.2

90.6

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales,
manufacturing2
1 3

98.7

Apr.

May

91.4

94 2

84.5

92.1

112.0

100 8

101.1

106.6

Mar.

97.4

98.3

June

105.5

-364

785

860

880

371

825

-1696

-1977

-1102

-169

-67

1253

99.6

99.2

99.6

100.5

100.6

101.5

100.4

99.9

99.3

99.9

100.0

99.4

517. Defense Department gross obligations
incurred1

95.2

83.2

126.1

130.0

100.1

95.6

108.7

90.8

103.9

104.4

87.8

85.9

525. Defense Department prime contract awards

84.6

79.7

190.7

104.2

101.3

91.2

89.9

76.0

109.7

96.2

95.1

88.2

543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligationsoutstanding
. . .

, . .

96.9

94.7

98.1

101.5

101.5

100.2

102.8

102.0

101.8

102.5

101.3

98.5

570. Employment in defense products industries .

99.8

99.4

99.8

99.9

100.2

100.5

100.4

100.2

100.3

100.0

99.8

99.9

100.1

99.7

97.0

99.5

96.3

105.0

93.2

96.6

109.8

97.7

100.2

104.2

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products .

87.7

90.2

90.2

107.7

109.6

109.5

99.6

101.1

113.4

103.1

98.7

93.7

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

96.1

97.2

95.1

102.8

96.5

98.9

91.4

93.6

111.8

100.9

103.0

109.1

97.0

103.9

96.7

101,0

92.9

103.2

106.6

105.0

100.0

101,1

88.1

103.1

92.5

90.6

92.9

99.7

102.3

98.8

106.6

86.3

111.7

100.6

108.4

109.4

33. Net change in mortgage debt

. . . . . . .

72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars'*

580. Defense Department net outlays1

....

614. Imports of petroleum and products1. .
616. Imports of automobiles and parts1

t

..

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF TEE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
"These factors apply to only the loans portion of this series.




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan,

Mar.

Feb.

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951. • .
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959..,
1960...
1961. . .
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965.. .
1966...
1967, . .
1968,..
1969...
1970...
1971. . .
1972...
1973...
1974,. .
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980...
1981. . .
1982...

112.6
91.6
87.3
89.3
91.4
95.1
88.6
97.7
97.7
93.5
88.9
98.3
99.6
98.9
93.2
94.0
96.8
100.4
102.0
97.0
104,1
112.9
112.1
104.5
113.5
116.7
109.5
99.7
114.2
120.3
125.2
128.3
128.1
121.6

107.9
89.0
89.9
8 9.7
92.2
94.2
88.0
98.5
98.5
93.5
88.5
98.6
98.3
90.8
94.0
94.8
97.8
100.8
102.8
96.7
104.8
113.7
111.5
103.7
113.2
117.1
110.0
99.4
114.1
120.7
127.3
128.1
127.9
120.7
62.

105.1
86.9
90.8
90.1
93.1
93.7
87.8
98.6
97.5
93.8
88.3
100.1
97.3
91.4
94.5
95.2
97.4
100.0
102.9
97.4
105.2
112.8
109.0
106.0
114.2
117.7
109.9
100.2
114.3
122.1
128.5
129.1
124.6
120.9

My
a

Apr.
12,

June

July

Aug.

Oct.

Sept.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

H Q

INDEX OF NET BUSINESS FORMATION1
(1967=100)

105.4
06.0
93.1
88.3
91. 3
93.1
89.1
98.2
98.2
93.6
88.2
99.8
97.4
92.4
94.0
94.1
98.2
99.2
100.6
96.9
103.2
113.7
108.2
106.3
115.4
116.0
112.7
101.3
114.5
120.2
128. 5
127.9
121.9
121.9

104.8
84.6
91.3
93 .0
92.3
89,7
98.7
98.1
92.6
90.9
100,0
96.1
92.3
93.7
94.5
99.7
99.4
99.9
98.2
102.1
113.6
106.1
107.7
114.r>
115.9
112.6
103.3
113.3
120.8
127.7
129.1
121.1
119.1

103.8
84.2
92.9
88 .7
93.6
91.6
90.1
99.4
96.9
93.6
91.8
98.4
96.1
92.8
93.1
95.2
97.8
100.5
99.8
100.0
103.7
113.3
104.9
109.9
114.6
115.5
113.4
108.7
116.1
123.5
129.3
126.7
118.9
117.3

101.0
82.8
92.1
88.9
92.3
91.5
90.8
98.9
96.3
93.2
92.3
98.4
96.0
93.2
93.3
95.2
97.8
100.5
99.3
100.4
106.2
113.2
104.0
110.4
115.8
115.4
114.5
112.3
115.7
122.8
129.3
128.4
119.1
118.2

98.6
83.9
91.1
88.9
94.6
91.8
91.2
98,5
95.4
92.6
94-1
98.5
94.6
91.7
93.6
96.0
98.2
100.1
98.2
102.3
107.7
112.6
103.4
109.9
116.1
114.7
112.7
111,4
113.9
125.3
127.3
127.9
120.6
118.7

AVERAGE FOR

97.5
85.9
89.6

INDEX OS? LABOR COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT, TOTAL MANUFACTURING

93.9
87.2
90.1

95.3
89.4
89.4

108.5
89.2
89,3

104.7
84.9
92.4

99.0
84.1
90.8

94 Is
89.9
94.2
97.8
96,4
91,3
95.2
97.4
93.9
92.8
94.1
96.1
100.8
99. S
913.2
101.6
112.8
113.5
104.3
110.6
118.9
112.2
103.0
110,5
117.2
126.4
130.3
127.0
121,6
114.8

97.3
85.5
89.3
89.6
95.0
89.4
92.3
98.6
95.2
91.7
95.3
97.8
94.1
91.8
94.4
95.8
100.2
99.9
97.4
101.7
109.0
111 .5
103.9
109.0
117.7
112.4
108.5
111.2
115.5
124.0
127.6
130.0
121.1
117.6

94.0
88.6
95.4
98.2
94.6
90.4
96.1
98.7
91.7
93.8
93.3
95.4
98.9
100.6
95.4
103.8
110.5
111.5
105.3
111.4
118.5
114.1
101.7
111.1
119.7
126.2
129.9
127.9
121.1
117.4

94.2
89.5
95.1
98.2
94.2
89.2
96.6
98.8
90.9
93.8
93.1
96.0
100.2
100.9
96.1
103.8
112.7
112.8
104.4
112.3
118.1
110.7
101.8
114.3
119.0
126.3
127.5
129.7
122.7
115.2

92.2
94.3
88.1
98.3
97.9
93.6
88.6
99.0
98.4
90.4
93.9
94.7
97.3
100.4
102.6
97.0
104.7
113.1
110.9
104.7
113.6
117.2
109,8
99.8
114.2
121.0
127.0
128.5
126.9
121.0

92.6
92.3
89.6
93.8
97.7
93.3
90.3
99.4
96.5
92.5
93.6
94.6
93.6
99.7
100.1
98.4
103.0
113.5
106.4
108.0
114.9
US.8
112.9
104.4
114.6
121.5
128.5
127.9
120.6
119.4

94.0
90.3
91.4
9B.7
95.6
92. 5
93.9
98.2
94,9

78,6
81,7
79.4
81.7
89.2
90.5
94.5
91.4
92.1
96.4
101.2
98.5
97.5
103.1
99.7
99.3
97.4
96.3
95.8
99.3
100.9
104.7
111.8
113.1
112.5
115.0
122.4
144.1
14 3.9
149,3
161.6
170.4
183.7
202.6

78.4
82.0
79.2
83.0
89.2
90.6
94.S

91.7
92.5
95.9
101.8
97.8
98.7
103.4
99.1
98.3
97.8
96.3
96 .8
99.5
101.5
104.6
111.5
113.3
113.7
115.7
123.2
145,6
143.0
151.2
163.5
171.5
186.2
203.6

79.3
81.1
78. S
83.9
89.7
91.2
94.7
90.8
93.2
96.2
102.€
97.3
99.9'
102.7
99.3
98.5
98. 5
>

95.3
96.4
100.3
101.8
105.2
112.4
113.6
114.1
115.7
123.S
147.7
143.4
150.7
163.5
171.S
188.2
204.4

78.8
81.2
77.8
85.3
89.8
91.3
94.5
90 ,1
93.1
97.1
102.8
97.1
100.0
101B4
100.3
97.2
97,6
95.2
97.. 0
99.5
102.2
106.0
112,2
113-3
113.3
116,8
124.4
145.9
1-14.0
151,8
162.5
175.0
191,7
206,1

78.3
81.3
78.3
85.6
90.6
91.0
94.1
90.1
93.7
97.2
101.7
97.0
100.8
101.1
100.4
97.1
97.6
95.0
97.0
100.0
102.1
106.9
112.1
113.4
113.7
116.3
125.2
145.7
144.3
152.9
163.4
173.5
196.6
207.4

78.5
81.1
77.2
86.7
91.1
91.6
93.4
90.2
94.3
96.9
100.0
97.6
101.4
100.5
100.8
97.5
97.9
95.3
97.4
100.3
102.2
106.8
112.6
113.1
113.7
116.9
125.7
143.3
144.2
154.0
163.7
174.4
201.0
208.9

80.8
79.6
79.8
813.3
90.2
92.1
93.0
91,0
96.1
93.2
93.8
101.6
101.4
93,8
99,9
97.5
98,3
9 5,3
97,9
99,7
104.5
103.2
112,9
112.0
113.1
113.9
131.6
142,4
147.1
157,1
165.9
179.5
201.1
216.6

82.3
78.5
81.3
88.8
89.7
93.0
93.7
92.3
96.4
100.2
98.8
101.8
102.4
98.8
99.6
97.8
97.0
96.0

81.7
79.3
81.6
89.5
90.7
94.4
92.9
91.6
96.5
100.7
99.2
98.5
102.4
98.1
99.6
98.6
96.9
95.6

78.8
81.6
79.0
82.8
89.4
90.8
94.6
91.3
92.6
96.2
101.9
98.0
98.7
103.1
99.4
98.9
97.9
96.1

78.5

81.4
77.8
85.9
90.5
91.3
94 .0
90.1
93.7
97.1
101.5
97.2
100.7
101.0
100.5
97.3
97.7
95.2

80.7
80.0
77,1
88,4
89.7
91.1
93,1
90.9
96.3
97.2
100.0
100.3
100,9
99..3
99,9
98.0
98,1
94.,7

99.7
104,0
108.6
112.8
111.9
113.5
119.9
135.5
141 .9
14B.1
158.1
167.2
180.1
200.9
219.9

100.0
104.9
109.8
112.8
113.3
113.5
120.8
140.8
143.1
148.5
159.4
168.1
181.9
201.1
222.5

99.7
101.4
104.8
111.9
113.3
113.4
115.5
123.0
145.8
143.4
150.4
162.9
171.1
186.0
203.5

99,9
102.2
106.6
112.3
113.3
113.6
116.7
125.1
145.0
144.2
152.9
163.2
174.3
196.4
207.5

100,8
103.1
107,5
112.9
113.,1
113.2
117.5
127 ,,6
141.0
145., 5
15 5,5
164.7
177.9
203..0
210.,5

1954..,

1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963.. .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970..,
1971..,
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .

101.7
102.7
96.9
96.9
102.6
101.4
103.4

101.2
102.8
96.4
98.2
102.3
101.2
103.3

80.9
79.8
76.6
88.7
89.9
90.9
93.5
91.0
95.7
97.6
99.8
100.6
100.6
99.3
100.0
97.8
98.0
94.8
98 .3
101,0
102.9
107.7
112.9
114.2
113.1
117.6
127.6
141.0
145.3
155.5
164.4
178.3
203.7
209.9

81.4
79.4
77.8
88.7
90.1
91.1
92.6
91 .2
95.4
97.1
100.0
101.1
101.1
98.8
99.7
97.9
98.5
94 .9
98 . 2
100.4
103.6
108.0
112.9
112.4
113.2
117 .8
128.4
140.8
146.7
156.5
165.4
178.9
202,2
212.6

97.3
99.6
103.0
99.2
97.2
102.5
99.8
100.4
100.1
100.0
99.1
100.4
98.8
99.6
105.4
103.2
98.8
96.5
97.7
107.8
101.6
99.8
101.1
99.1
98.8
100.6

97.5
98.9
103.5
98.4
98.4
102.8
99.3
100.0
100.6
100.0
100.0
100.4
99.0
99.4
104.8
103.1
99.5
96.7
97.8
108.4
100.5
100.6
101.7
99.1
99.5
100.4

102.3
97,9
95,3
102.3
101.7
101.2
100.7

103.9
96.3
96.9
102.6
100.9
102.1
101.3

102.9
97.0
97.0
103.2
101.8
103.5
100.2

101.7
102.3
96.2
98.0
102.5
101.4
103.4

100.6
101,3
94.0
100.8
103.1
101.4
102,4

98U9
92O<3
102., 9
1 0 1 , ,6
100., S

102.5

103.3
97.9
93.1
103.0
101 .8
100.3
100.4

98. 2
99.9
103.1
97,4
100.3
100.7
100.8
98.6
100.8
98.7
99.7
100.2
98.8
101. 5
104.5
102. 3
98.3
96.1
97,8
106.9
100.0
100.2
99.8
98.3
103.0
100.1

98.6
99.5
101.3
97.9
100.8
100.2
101.2
99.1
101.3
99.0
99.9
100.2
98.7
101.4
104.7
101.7
98.0
96.2
97.6
104 .6
99.4
100.4
99.4
98.1
104.7
100.1

102.0
99.3
101.4
99.4
100.3
99,5
100.6
100.0
101.3
98.1
99.6
100.6
99.0
101.4
104.6
101.1
97.2
96.1
97.9
102.7
99.2
100.2
99.1
98.6
105.1
99.4

99,7
99,9
100.9
100.7
100.0
99.1
100.6
99.7
101.5
98.4
100.5
100.4
98.9
102.1
104.4
102.0
96.7
96.1
98.0
102.0
99.4
100.2
98.7
99.0
104.7
99.1

99.2
99.3
101 .0
101.1
100.4
98,7
100.4
100.0
102.1
98.5
100.1
99.5
99.3
102.3
104.1
100.1
96.4
95.9
98.0
101,4
99.9
100.2
98.7
98.7
103.2
99.7

99.8

99.9
102.2
99.6
101.7
101.7
98.9
100.4
100.2
100.7
99.5
100.7
98.2
99.2
102.7
103.5
99.0
95.9
96,7
102.3
101.2
99.9
100.1
98.5
98.0
101.2
101.7

99.9
102.6
99.9
98.3
101,7
98.2
100.6
101.1
100.6
99,0
100.0
98.2
99.8
103.8
103.2
99.9
95.6
96.9
105.8
101.5
99.7
100.3
98.4
98.4
100.6
102.2

97.6
99.2
103.6
98.6
98.4
102.5
99.6
100.0
100.7
99.9
99.5
100.6
98.9
99.7
105.2
103.1
99.2
96.5
97.7
108.5
100.8
100.1
101.3
98.9
99.4
100.4

90.2
99,8
102.9
97.6
100. 2
100.6
100.9
98.7
100.9
98.9
99.8
100.1
98.9
101.2
104.7
102.2
98.2
96.4
97.7
106.4
99.9
100. 2
99.7
98.8
102.9
100.1

98.1
99.1
104.2
98.3
99.5
102. 2
99.5
99. e
101.5
99.5
99.4
101.1
99.0
100.0
105.4
103.1
99.4
96.3
97.5
109.4
100.3
99.8
101.1
98. 5
99.9
100.1

97*8
99.9
104.3
97.5
99.5
100,9
100.6
98.6
100,7
98.9
99,9
100,0
99.2
100.7
104.9
102,5
98.4
96.9
97.7
107.6
100.2
100,0
99.9
99.8
101.1
100.2

ion.3

99.7
101.6
100.7
98.8
100.6
99.7
101.9
93.9
99.6
98.5
99.9
102.4
103.9
9 9.4
96.0
96,4
99.8
102.0
99.7
103.0
98.4
93.3
102.0
100.8

This series contains revisions beginning with 1948. This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of
the user. 3 Th1s series is Introduced 1n thJs Issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page 111.




10 2.,7

102.9
98.6
91.9
103.3
101.8
100.3
101.5

101.4
95.4
98.9
102. 6
101.7
103.4

?f)RIOD
9IS.6
87.5
8!). 7
90.6
94.2
39.3
94.9
90.1
{
)!».l
90.3
96.0
98.3
92.2
93.5
93.5
9!».B
10O.O
100.3
96.6
103.1
112.0
112.6
104.7
111.4
I IB. 5
112.3
102.2
112.0
118.6
126.3
129.2
128.2
121.8
115.8

lUl.'i
l

H).n

<)1.' (
•u.ei
*>« .<')

* 6.fi
»
(

» 2 . <;

*»8.'»
(

*)!i. i
92 .'.
•>3.'»

*)!».:?
100.2
«>9.'l
100.;$
lOfi.H
H2.«)
106.4
108 .'}
f

n i.n

114.')

109. H
!
107.1}

US.ii
128.2
12H.'J
122.4
llB.fi

'ElUOtO
81.6
79.1
80.9
88.9
91). 2
93.2
9J.2
91.6
96.3
99.7
93.9
100*6
102.1
9a.6
99,7
98.0
97.4
95.6
98.6
9?.8
104.5
103.9
112.8
112.4
113.4
119.9
136.0
142.5
147.9
158.2
167.1
180.5
201.0
219.7

1H.f)
ao.'j
7H.'>
8 6 . r>
4 tJ . 1}
') ; . ts
9 3.7
i
):, 0
94.7
'•i'l . :i
1OO.»5
'4f). t

lOO.f)
lOO.'S
99.9
98.S)
'¥1 ,:*
95.4

imun
102.13

itn.o

112,'i
lll.i)
i n . •:
117.5
127. 3
143.6
14'i.a
1S4. *
164..;
17 6.:"
210.3

AVERAGE FOR h I!HI IK)

101.8
100.2
92.4
102.5
101.2
100.9
101.2

100.4
101.8
94.6
100.5
103. 2
101.0

Annual

3

100.4
100.7
93.1
101.5
103.6
101.5
101.6

101,2
101.3
94.3
100.4
102.5
101.6
103.1

102.1

93.8
95.7
98.7
100.2
98.3
101.5
107.6
112.4
103.8
109.3
US.5
114.2
111.9
111.6
115.0
124,0
128.1
128. 8
120.3
118,2

AVERAGE FUR

79.8
80.9
76.8
87.8
89.2
91.3
93.1
90.6
97.7
96.9
100.2
99.2
100.9
99.8
100.1
98.3
97.8
94.4
97.3
100.9
102.8
106.9
112.8
112.8
113.2
117.2
126.8
141.3
144.5
154.6
164,2
176.4
203.1
208.9

62. LftBOR COST PER UNIT Of OUTPUT, MANUFACTURING—ACTUAL DATA AS A PERCENT OF TREND
(PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...

92.2

IV Q

2

(1967=100)
1948...
1949.. .
1950...
1951. . .
1952. . .
1953..,
1954.,.
1955.. .
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960.. .
1961...
1962.. .
1963. . .
1964..,
1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968.. .
1969.. .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...

III Q

1-U.

101.0

103.1
97.1
96.4
102.7
101.4
102.3
103.7

100I3
99.5
101.1
100.4
100.2
99,, 1
100 .,5
99 ,,9
101.6
98., 3
100.1
100.1
99 ,,1
101.9
104.4
101 ,,1
9 6,,8
96 ,,0
98.0
102uQ
99,5
100.2
98.,8
98,8
104,3
99,, 4

101.7
99.7
100.5
101.4
98.6
100.6
LOO.4
101.1
99.1
100.1
98.3
99.6
103.0
103.5
99,4
93.8
96.7
102.6
101.6
99.8
100.1
93.4
98.3
101.3
101.6

MO. 1
Ml.-

+•). •
M . •

Ml.l
102.:
101.;
in.
-»•»!•

4-).

-•

1.hi. I
1 -) t ) . :•

.100..;
->*». ;
10I . 1
•»').

•W. "
<
•

V).
•)'}.

1

101.1
J>)4.
111.1
•>7.

•H.
M4.
1 JO.
1.10. <
•H.
18.
T)2.
1J0.1

(FEBRUARY 1933)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

-0.98
0.85
0.18
0.96
-0.70
-0.92
0.71
-0.38
-0.79
0.10
1.60
0.09
-0.92
-0.31
-0.10
0.41
0.90
0.29
-0.10
-0.39
2.07
0.00
0.17
-0.16
2.39
2.82
-4.05
-0.33
-0.05
-1.24
2.00
1.36
0.87
-1.08

-0.99
0.48
0.92
-0.09
-0.60
-0.41
0.30
0.29
-0.10
-0.42
0.00
-0.38
-0.73
-1.02
-0.31
0.31
0.39
0.59
-0.69
0.88
1.41
1.44
-1.92
0.48
1.62
3.64
-1.97
0.67
1.21
-0.78
2.87
-1.01
1.98
-2.18

-i.il
0.96
0.82
-0.66
-0.40
-0.21
0.10
0.67
0.10
0.31
-0.59
0.00
0.21
0.52
0.21
0.00
0.20
0.00
-1.19
1.07
2.95
-0.50
-0.98
1.27
1.18
3.05
-5.33
2.27
1.15
2.69
-0.4 2
-2.27
0.26
-0.72

0.19
-0.98
1.52
1.14
-0.77
0 .10
-0.20
0.13
0.32
-0.77
-0.03
1.01
-0.80
0.04
-0.17
0.00
0.24
-0.49
0.97
-1.01
0.23
2.07
-1.30
1.36
0.81
3.11
0.42
-1.55
2.18
0.69
1.56
2.09
1.01
-1.22

1.17
-1.13
2.36
-0.79
-0.39
-0.03
-0.10
0.60
-0.48
-0.44
0.18
0.64
-0.8 2
0.66
-0.59
0.21
0.37
0.20
0.25
0.93
0.70
-1.86
0.38
0.77
1.01
2.51
-0.57
1.02
1.06
-0.94
2.07
0.95
-2.69
0.45

0.30
1.13
2.56
-0.53
-0.30
0.52
0.30
0.57
0.68
-0.83
0.70
-0.19
-0.82
-1.61
0.31
0.51
0.48
0.47
-0.49
0.90
1.51
0.70
-1.18
0.09
1.63
2.55
-2.16
0.00
0.55
-0,57
2.16
-0.88
1.42
-1.88

-1 .00
0.22
1 .33
-0.36
-0.49
-0.10
0.00
1.24
0.10
0.00
-0 .69
-0.29
-0.31
0.92

-2 .05
0 .81
0.93
-1.55
-0.16
-0.14
0.31
-0.10
-1.01
-0.21
0.60
-0.65
0.62
-0.13
-0.14
0.24
-0.19
1.02
-0.83
0.10
1.68
-0.52
0.86
1.34
3.05
1.46
-0.88
1.80
1.26
1.22
2.44
0.76
-0.92

0.80
-2.11
2.13
-1.15
-0.88
-0.60
0.45
0.46
-0.82
-0.33
0.04
0.55
-0.39
0.14
-0.82
0.07
0.44
0.29
-0.27
0.21
-0.10
-0.55
-0.12
0.24
1.07
2.22
-0.70
0.04
1.15
-1.24
1.19
0.67
-3.05
0.00

;ES FOR 28 SENSITIVE MATERIALS
98 . CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRIC
(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966...
1967.. .
1968, . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982.. .

1.12
-0.56
1.30
2.80
-1.15
-0.61
-0.41
0.30
-0.10
-0.80
0.94
0.30
0.19
-0.73
0.72
0.00
0.00
-0.59
0.78
-1.00
-0.48
2.11
-0.76
0.81
1.81
1.51
-0.99
-3.22
3.14
-0.59
2.58
0.96
1.48
-1.81

-1.10
-1.58
1.87
0.35
-0.97
0,51
-0.10
0.70
0.57
-1.10
-0.31
1.38
-1.05
-0.42
-0.31
0.11
0.00
-0.59
0.68
-1.32
0.10
1.82
-1.69
1.51
0.46
4,06
-0.35
0.06
1.16
0.09
1.40
1.20
2.16
-2.50

0.56
-0.80
1.38
0.26
-0.20
0.40
-0.10
-0.60
0.43
-0.41
-0.7 3
1.36
-1.54
1.26
-0.92
-0.10
0.72
-0.30
1.44
-0.72
1.06
2.27
-1.46
1.75
0.15
3.77
2.60
-1.43
2.23
2.57
0.69
4.10
-0.62
0.64

1.89
-0.92
1.36
-0.70
-0.29
O.OO
-0.62
0.50
-0.19
-0.61
-0.21
0.67
-0.49
1.56
-0.83
-0.11
0.91
0.00
0.47
-0.41
0.19
-1.98
0.00
0.95
0.38
3.82
3.22
1.15
1.93
-0.31
1.13
0.30
-6.32
0.94

1.20
-1.40
2.90
-0.70
-0.69
0.10
0.10
0.70
-0.57
-0.61
-0.10
0.29
-0.39
-0.20
-0.31
0.63
-0.10
0.70
0.47
1.14
0.38
-1.46
0.96
0.09
0.92
2.96
-4.63
3.87
0.05
-0.76
2.12
0.33
-2.59
0.10

0.43
-1.06
2.82
-0 .97
-0.20
-0.20
0.21
0.59
-0.67
-0.10
0.84
0.95
-1.57
0.62
-0.63
0.10
0.30
-0.10
-0.19
2.05
1.52
-2.14
0.17
1 .28
1.74
0.76
-0.30
-1.95
1.20
-1.76
2.97
2.22
0 .83
0.30

0.00
-0.95
4.54
-2.68
-0.50
-0.10
1.98
0.49
-0.58
-0.10
0.62
-0.47
-0.60
-0.31
0.00
1.98
0.50
0.30
-0.19
1.01
1.68
-1.60
-0.86
2.86
1.49
-0.70
0.74
-0.47
4.58
2.07
0.46
-1.56
3.31
-1.19

-0.54
-0.72
5.05
-3.58
0.40
-0 .40
-0.10
1.08
-1.45
-0.31
2.07
-0.38
-1.71
0.10
0,42
0.82
0.80
1.18
-3.85
0.80
0.83
0.43
-0.09
2.37
1.25
3.57
-1.97
2.23
-0.61
3.60
1.21
-0.79
2.69
-1.34

-0 .65
0.24
4.51
-0 .67
-0.30
-0.41
0.61
0.87
-0.59
-0.83
1.32
0.00
-0.31
0.41
-0.21
-1.52
-0.40
-0.49 •
-0.68
1.48
1.18
0.25
-0.09
0.24
0.07
4.41
-1.81
3.39
1.56
2.04
0.78
0.40
0.81
-2.37

III Q

IV Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR 'ERIOD
-0.40
-0.48
4 .70
-2.31
-0.13
-0.30
0.83
0.81
-0.87
-0.41
1.34
-0.28
-0.87
0.07
0.07
0.43
0.30
0.33
-1.57
1.10
1.23
-0.31
-0.35
1.82
0 .94
2.43
-1.01
1.72
1.84
2.57
0.82
-0.65
2.27
-1.63

-0.01
-0.45
2.30
-0.47
-0.47
-0.19
0.22
0.43
-0.32
-0.41
0.45
0.32
-0.74
0.12
-0.19
0.22
0.35
0.08
-0.25
0.38
1.07
0.05
-0.55
1.12
1.12
2.81
-1.24
0.52
1.46
0.64
1.48
0.44
0.40
-0.93

-1.03
0.76
0.64
0.07
-0.57
-0.51
0.37
0.19
-0.26
0.00
0.34
-0.10
-0.48
-0.27
-0.07
0.24
0.50
0.29
-0.66
0.52
2.14
0.31
-0.91
0.53
1.73
3.17
-3.78
0.87
0.77
0.22
1.48
-0.64
1.04
-1.33

99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS PRICES--PPI AND SPOT MARKET PRICES--MONTHLY DATA
(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
1960. ..
1961...
1962. . .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976. . .
1977.. .
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981. ..
1982. ..

-1.01
\.12
3.11
-1.26
-0.99
-0.52
0.91
-0.38
-1.16
0.10
-0.10
0.38
-0.31
0.91
-0.10
0.20
-0.77
1.22
-0.20
-0.39
1.92
0.17
0.28
1.99
1.8.1
0.44
-2.25
2.13
0,65
2.56
1.24
1.42
-1.60

-1.76
-2.44
0.66
O.40
-2.09
0.00
-0.31
0.80
-0.19
-1.56
-0.10
0.70
-0.96
0.41
-0.80
0.00
0.00
-0.29
0.93
-1.19
0.00
1.79
-0.78
1.20
0.85
3.84
1.94
0.19
1.07
0.91
0.75
2.32
1.68
-2.08

-0.90
-2.71
0.66
-0.71
-1.30
0.50
0.42
-0.79
0.28
-0.30
-0.63
1.19
-1.36
1.75
-0.51
-0.31
0.51
0.48
0.92
-1.10
0.69
1.32
-0.96
1.10
1.18
3.49
2.01
-0.58
2.19
2.22
0.35
3.76
-0.83
0.92

1.41
-3.64
0.98
-0.80
-1.03
-1.40
0.73
0.70
0.09
-0.60
-0.84
0.68
0.20
1.11
. -1.12
0.00
1.52
0.87
-0.18
-0.91
-0.39
-0.35
-0.09
1.08
0.75
2.54
1.81
1.29
2.20
-0.26
0.64
0.74
-4.73
0.83

0.40
-1.11
2.80
-0.72
-0.76
-0.10
0.31
0.00
-1.41
-0.50
0.11
0.29
-0.20
0.00
-0.31
0.52
-0.50
0.48
-0.55
0.41
-0.49
-0.52
0.27
-0.36
1.65
2.41
-3.92
1.65
0.28
-0.94
0.78
0.12
-3.67
-0,37

0.59
-1.57
2.62
-1.94
-0.86
-0.30
0.31
0.69
-1.15
0.10
0.84
0.68
-1.18
-0.70
-1.03
-0.31
0.30
-0.48
-0.09
1.12
0.59
-0 .79
-0.53
0.00
0.81
1.70
0.00
-2.81
0.96
-2.52
2.14
1.14
-0.74
-0.45

-0.10
0.00
5.42
-4.87
-0.68
-0.20
0.72
1.28
-0.10
-0.30
1.15
-0.29
-0.70
0.10
-0.31
1.15
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.59
-0.62
-1.07
1.08
0.72
0.97
0.49
-0.51
3.69
0.75
0.57
-0.48
2.83
-0.25

AVERAGE POR
0.00
1.26
6.40
-2.86
0.10
-0.41
-0.20
0.97
0.00
-0.30
1.66
-0.10
-0.70
0.40
0.31
0.41
1.39
0.76
-3.78
0.40
0.58
0.80
-0.36
1.69
0.88
3.76
-1.57
2.52
-0.97
1.66
1.66
-0.32
2.92
-0.41

-0.79
0.56
5.74
-0.71
-0.10
-0.82
0.82
0.87
0.19
-1.31
0.61
0.48
-0.40
0.20
-0.31
-0.82
0.49
-0.38
-1.15
0.60
0.97
0 .79
-0.27
0.44
0.08
1,72
-2.20
2.52
0.33
1.10
1.21
0.12
1.03
-1 .91

-1.09
-0.79
1.21
1.17
-1.17
-1.44
0.81
-0.48
-0.58
-0.92
1.82
0.19
-0.91
-0.30
0.21
0.83
1.46
0.19
-0.68
-0.20
1.53
-0.44
-0.18
-0.09
2.06
1.75
-3.55
-0.55
-0.65
-0.36
2.30
1.75
0.69
-1.14

-0.10
0.10
-0.10
0.38
-0.69
0.89
1.67
0.17
-1.19
0.70
1.30
4.11
-4.77
1 .36
0.92
2.46
-0.57
-0.69
-0.48
-1.05

-0.30
0.61
5.85
-2.81
-0.23
-0.48
0.45
1.04
0.03
-0.64
1.14
0.03
-0.60
0.23
-0.10
0.25
0.83
0.13
-1.64
0.37
0.71
0.32
-0.57
1.07
0.56
2.15
-1.09
1.51
1.02
1.17
1.15
-0.23
2.26
-0.86

PERIOD
-0.60
0.19

-0 .84
2.62
-0.73
-0.83
-0.39
0.28
0.56
-0.21
-0.64
0.39
0.27
-0.58
0.16
-0.23
0.16
0.53
0.14
-0.38
0.07
0.57
0.40
-0.51
0.60
1.16
2.55
-0.96
0.24
1.06
0.42
1.21
0.74
0.13
-0.78

1.70
0.09
-0.65
-0.34
0.37
0.44
0.07
-0.58
0.61
-0 .10
-0.68
-0.33
0.14
0.48
0 .61
0.35
-0 .62
0.53
1.57
0.14
-0.85
0.23
1.66
2.80
-3.49
0.27
0.27
0.51
1.30
0.06
0.54
-1.36

99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS P R I C E S — P P I AND SPOT MARKET P R I C E S — S M O O T H E D DATA 1
AVERAGE FOR

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT)
1948 . . .
1949...
1950. ..
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961. ..
1962. . .
1963. ..
1964 . . .
1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...

-0.58
0.51
2.02
-0.31
-0.62
-0.19
0.39
0.46
-0.03
-0.41
0.29
-0.06
-0.58
-0.13
0.09
0.37
0.24
0.52
-0.54
0.50
1.64
0.25
-0.77
0.58
1.62
2.58
-3.28
0.72
0.49
1.00
1.12
0.01
0.16

-1.03
0.75
1.97
-0.98
-0.54
-0.17
0.49
0.35
-0.50
-0.12
-0.03
-0.16
-0.28
0.21
-0.02
0.18
-0.26
0.77
-0.58
0.32
1.75
0.10
-0.30
1.05
1.95
2.27
-2.67
1.34
0.77
1.70
0.97
0.38
-0.80

-1.77
0.74
1.27
-1.39
-0.33
-0.22
0.44
0.06
-0.94
-0.10
0.28
-0.47
0.27
0.11
-0.10
0.17
-0.29
0.93
-0.76
0.13
1.74
-0.34
0.48
1.26
2 .68
1.81
-1.58
1 .66
1.04
1.57
1.72
0.78
-1.15

-2.49
0.79
0.28
-1.51
-0.23
0.07
0.27
-0.02
-0.91
-0.37
0.73
-0.68
0.85
-0.47
-0.12
0.46
0.08
0.79
-0.95
0.10
1.30
-0.57
0.99
1.13
3.17
1.69
-0.29
1.81
1.11
0.90
2.36
-0.27
-0.52

-0 . 06
-2.71
1.12
-0.56
-1.25
-0.32
0.38
0.10
-0.14
-0.64
-0.49
0.79
-0.58
1.02
-0,73
-0.02
0. 59
0.48
0.31
-0,80
0.02
0.54
-0,44
0 .87
1.06
3,05
0.94
0.54
1,69
0.65
0,58
1,91
-2,18
0.17

0 . 55
-2.30
1 .81
-0.95
-0.96
-0,47
0.47
0.22
-0.58
-0.40
-0.21
0.64
-0.42
0.54
-0.73
0.07
0.48
0.45
-0.10
-0.16
-0.08
-0.20
-0.19
0.42
1.13
2.52
-0.37
0.42
1.35
-0.45
0.89
1.10
-3.06
0.23

0.55
-1.50
2.87
-1.83
-0.83
-0.40
0.45
0.56
-0.86
-0.28
0.37
0.39
-0.54
-0.03
-0.68
0.26
0.29
0.14
-0.24
0.38
0.07
-0.60
-0.28
0.24
1.07
1.96
-0.92
-0.26
1.40
-1.07
1.18
0.46
-1.79
-0.18

0.23
-0.50
4.21
-2.87
-0.62
-0.25
0.36
0.82
-0.65
-0.20
0.96
0.16
-0.78
-0.13
-0.45
0 .44
0.45
0.05
-0.75
0.54
0.41
-0.42
-0.55
0.58
0.93
1.92
-0.75
-0.41
1.44
-0.47
1.31
0.19
0.57
-0.36

-0 .07
0.25
5.33
-3.02
-0 .35
-0.39
0.36
1.01
-0.19
-0.40
1.18
0.06
-0.73
0.08
-0.22
0.33
0.80
0.11
-1.47
0.45
0.65
0.06
-0.61
1.00
0.68
2.15
-0.73
0.62
1. 12
0.57
1.30
-0.06
1.96
-0.61

-0 .46
0.48
5.15
-1.81
-0.31
-0.68
0.46
0.75
-0.05
-0.74
1.25
0.11
-0.64
0.17
-0.02
0.19
0.97
0.16
-1.76
0.32
0.87
0.35
-0.42
0.88
0.78
2.28
-1.77
1.50
0.29
0.98
1.44
0.14
1.90
-1.00

-0.58
0.32
3.81
-0.41
-0.46
-0.74
0.56
0.39
-0.02
-0.93
1.20
0.18
-0.69
-0.24
0.07
0.16
0.96
0.14
-1.32
0.35
1.18
0.37
-0.41
0,41
1.13
2.21
-2.54
1.08
-0.18
0.43
1.81
0.42
1.30
-1.40

NOTE: These series are introduced in this issue. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.




-0 .56
0.24
2.44
0.04
-0.59
-0.46
0.51
0.38
0.08
-0.80
0.83
0.03
-0.70
-0.45
0.10
0.33
0.71
0.22
-0.70
0.48
1.45
0.25
-0.70
0.19
1.46
2.40
-3.07
0.46
0. 18
0.28
1.59
0.20
0.79
-1.50

-1.13
0.67
1 .75
-0.89
-0.50
-0.19
0.44
0.29
-0.49
-0.21
0.18
-0.23
-0.20
0.06
-0.01
0.24
-0.10
0.74
-0.63
0.32
1.71
0.00
-0.20
0.96
2.08
2.22
-2.51
1.24
0.77
1.42
1.27
0 .39
-0.60

-2 . 50
1.24
-0 .41
-1.24
-0.34
0.31
0.20
-0.25
-0.65
-0.36
0.72
-0.56
0.80
-0.64
-0.02
0.51
0.34
0.33
-0.64
0.01
0.55
-0.40
0.76
1.11
2.91
0.75
0.22
1.62
0.44
0.79
1.79
-1.84
-0.04

0 .24
-0.58
4.14
-2.57
-0.60
-0.35
0.39
0.80
-0.57
-0 . 29
0.84
0.20
-0.68
-0.03
-0.45
0.34
0.51

0.10
-0.82
0.46
0.38
-0.32
-0.48
0.61
0.89
2.01
-0.80
-0.02
1.32
-0.32
1.26
0.20
0.25
-0.38

'E1UOD
-0.53
0.35
3.80
-0.73
-0.45
-0.63
0.51
0.51
0.00
-0.82
1.09
0.11
-0.68
-0 . 17
0 .05
0.23
0 .88
0.17
-1.26
0.38
1.17
0.32
-0.51
0.49
1.12
2.30
-2.46
1.01
0 .10
0.56
1.61
0.25
1.33
-1.30

-0 .97
2.46
-0.49
-0.80
-0.45
0.25
0.48
-0.13
-0.56
0.34
0.30
-0.54
0.10
-0.24
0.13
0.54
0.13
-0.25
-0.11
0.47
0.56
-0.35
0.42
1.02
2.33
-0.07
-0.32
1.07
0.36
1.27
0.88
0.03
-0.58

{FEBRUARY 1983)

gg

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Mar.

Feb.

Apr,

My
a

June

July

Oct.

Sept.

Aug.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

72. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING—PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER-(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8

8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

. .
. .
. .
..
. .
. .
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. ,
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. ,
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .

13,417
14,055
12,677
16,503
19,632
21,227
21,000
20,529
24,515
28,695
29,171
28,567
31,433
32,999
33,582
36,039
38,931
43,562
53,062
60,701
65,333
73,450
88,586
91,020
84,533
94,317
113,994
140,679
125,359
124,443
135,140
156,481
191,948
211,868

1 0 1 .

13,358
13,979
12,764
17,116
19,641
21,277
21,064
20,692
24,686
23,720
28,835
28,583
31,870
32,966
33,712
36,126
39,195
44,618
53,908
61,023
65,595
74,190
90,119
91,733
85,317
98,059
115,346
139,640
125,775
125,798
135,597
158,774
195,929
212,042

C O M M E R C I A L

13,371
13,861
12,763
17,579
19,761
21,430
21,036
20,916
25,414
29,182
28,728
28,820
32,093
33,111
33,907
36,251
39,201
45,563
54,585
61,592
65,843
74,886
91,059
91,735
86,087
100,063
117,676
138,071
123,462
126,228
138,672
160,775
198,976
210,434

A N D

13,473
13,605
12,849
18,079
19 ,742
21,675
20,967
21,049
25,932
29,503
28,554
29,092
32,293
33,079
34,121
36,458
39,554
46,203
55,022
61,996
67,010
76,283
91,218
90,788
87,204
101,745
122,842
136,563
120,810
126,969
140,707
166,233
199,128
214 ,229

I N D U S T R I A L

13,834
13,409
12,936
18,453
19,809
21,816
20,811
21,416
26,448
29,650
28,168
29,573
32,59.1
33,020
34,269
36,626
39,882
47,209
55,877
62,132
67,184
77,457
91,684
91,522
87,828
103,053
125,111
133,775
121,102
127,814
143,160
168,821
197,899
220,579

f.OANS

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
8
8

8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

,
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. ,
. .
. .

17,807
18,953
17,960
19,901
24,083
26,787
26,249
25,835
30,356
34,070
34,023
33,151
36,523
38,150
38,873
41,874
45,008
50,362
59,197
66,751
71,084
77,452
89,586
90,172
86,612
90,256
92,603
97,558
83,240
78,811
80,440
84,402
89,695
88,611

18,066
19,158
18,001
20,348
24,191
26,924
26,437
25,970
30,445
34,056
33,588
33,170
37,030
38,112
39,072
42,082
45,542
51,454
59,708
67,186
70,785
77,877
90,874
90,125
86,616
92,074
92,706
97,107
83,516
78,771
79,904
84,364
89,670
87,802
111.

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

9
9
9
9
9
9
9

4
4
5
5
5
5
5

8
9
0
1
2
3
4

31.2
3.8
18,3
21.4
\0.2
17.4
-2.0

. . .
.
.
.
.
.
.

18,084
19,025
17,972
20,899
24,371
27,006
26,402
26,359
31,259'
34,648
33,254
33,403
37,103
38,280
39,299
42,334
45,606
52,479
60,458
68,055
70,970
78,161
91,675
89,831
87,309
91,801
92,585
96,486
81,817
78,305
81,095
84,485
90,485
86,350

13.3
7.0

1959*.
1 9 6 0 .
1 9 6 1 .

11'.9
10.1
5.3

10 * 6
.
13.8
4.1

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

12.1
10.5

.11.5
13.0
13.5
10.1
3.1
8.1
10.3
13.9
23.9
13.4
2.6
11.2
15.5
13.1
14.6
11.4
6.5

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2

•

.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
,
.
.

MOTE:

U.I
11.4

2.4
8.5
12.0

i'.Q
9.6
19.6
12.0
4.7
5.3
12,9
13.3
19.0
14.2
7.5

18,467
18,767
17,996
22,080
24,594
27,530
26,013
27,025
32,061
35,114
32,688
34,190
37,726
38,512
39,9113
42,718
46,515
53,971
61,815
68,570
72,162
80,122
92,189
89,055
88,536
92,176
96,165
92,005
79,307
77,983
81,993
06,664
89,224
89,339

14,507
12,660
14,057
18,865
20,190
21,934
19,804
22,664
27,418
30,285
27,941
30,456
32,840
33,131
35,038
37,047
40,839
49,139
58,857
62,875
68,681
79,884
93,064
91,632
88,814
108,519
133,325
129,591
121,109
130,231
147,813
179,554
201,242
233,595

1 4
1 2
1 4
1 8
2 0
2 1
1 9
2 2
2 7
3 0
2 8
3 0
3 2
3 3
3 5
3 7
4 1
5 0
5 9
6 3
6 9
8 0
9 3
9 3
8 8
L O S
3 7
2 8
L 2 O
L 3 0
L48
L 8 4
2 0 2
2 3 8

,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,

4
6
6
9
3
8
7
9
7
3
1
6
9
2
3
3
4
1
3
2
3
8
3
3
5
4
3
1
6
7
,
, 2
, 8
, 4

6 1
4 1
9 6
6 8
8 1
1 9
5 3
7 7
7 8
7 4
2 2
4 6
5 6
1 4
1 8
4 1
1 8
4 1
2 8
0 3
3 9
8 9
0 9
6 2
5 3
4 3
9 7
0 9
8 1
8 5
6 7 4
8 9
7 0
9 1

1 4 , 3 5 6
1 2 , 5 7 0
1 5 , 0 2 7
1 9 , 1 1 1
2 0 , . 5 5 0
2 1 , 6 4 0
1 9 , 7 1 8
2 3 , 4 2 1
2 7 , 3 5 8
2 9 , 9 6 9
2 8 , 2 1 5
3 0 , 9 1 5
3 2 , 9 9 6
3 3 , 2 1 5
3 5 , 5 3 5
3 7 , 3 2 1
4 1 , ( 5 2 5
5 0 , 3 1 2
5 9 , 3 2 2
6 3 , 5 8 7
7 0 , 1 6 3
8 2 , 0 7 3
9 1 , 3 5 2
9 2 , 5 6 6
9 0 , 5 7 0
,LO9,'59O
1 3 8 , 3 7 9
1 2 7 , 0 0 9
1 2 1 , 7 5 3
1 3 2 , 0 8 4
1 5 0 , 3 4 2
L 8 5 , 0 5 8
2 0 4 , 3 7 9
2 4 0 , 9 5 0

N O N F I N A N C I A L C O M M E R C I A L

AVERAGE FOR PEKIOi)

14,196
12,604
15,462
19,194
21,031
21,451
19,955
23,771
28,199
29,573
28,342
31,076
33,118.
33,280
35,939
38,579
42,068
51,650
60,282
64,065
71,105
82,627
91,241
92,402
91,501
110,939
139,813
126,165
123,353
133,301
152,578
183,833
208,438
243,580

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2

1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
9
9
1
3
2
2
3
5
8
1
4

4 , 0 8 7
2 , 5 7 3
5 , 9 8 6
9 , 4 1 1
1 , 1 3 3
1 , 0 5 8
0 , 3 1 4
4 , 1 1 0
8 , 3 9 5
9 , 5 1 7
f l , 4 9 6
1 , 2 8 8
3 , 0 1 8
3 , 4 2 9
5 , 9 8 6
9 , 0 4 5
2 , 7 3 7
2 , 3 0 0
0 , 5 3 2
4 , 8 3 0
2 , 2 1 0
3 , 3 6 5
1 , 1 1 9
1 , 8 1 4
2 , 1 3 9
1 , 7 8 7
9 , 8 9 2
6 , 2 5 1
4 , 1 8 6
4 , 2 4 5
2 , 6 3 4
6 , 9 5 7
0 , 3 6 3
6 , 5 4 4

1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
6
7
7
8
9
8
8
9
9
8
7
8
8
8
8
9

8
7
9
3
6
6
5
0
3
4
3
6
8
8
1
5
9
8
6
0
6
4
0
7
9
3
7
4
9
0
3
9
9
9

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2

1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
8
9
1
3
2
2
3
5
9
1

3
3
2
7
9
1
1
0
4
8
8
6
1
3
3
6
9
4
3
1
5
4
9
1
5
7
6
9
4
5
6
8
5
1

,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,

3
9
7
0
6
3
0
7
8
8
9
6
7
0
7
1
1
5
8
1
5
1
9
4
3
4
0
4
8
4
4
6
6
4

8
6
3
6
7
1
3
1
7
6
1
5
9
2
3
3
0
8
5
0
9
7
2
9
1
8
0
6
6
9
7
7
1
4

2
5
5
6
8
1
3
2
2
6
1
7
9
5
4
9
9
1
2
5
0
5
1
6
2
0
5
3
5
0
0
7
8
8

18,902
18,153
18,339
22,738
24,973
27,222
25,918
27,918
32,993
35,454
32,620
34,844
38,191
38,551
40,416
42,789
47,033
54,552
63,452
68,922
72,801
81,320
92,413
86,905
88,042
94,495
96,263
88,638
78,401
78,812
83,146
88,377
88,244
91,914

18,927
17,881
18,523
23,020
24,933
27,529
24,855
28,329
33,150
35,456
32,547
35,477
38,206
38,642
40,711
43,100
47,571
55,763
64,265
69,142
73,685
82,173
93,299
88,190
88,197
90,963
94,826
87,326
78,489
79,701
83,605
89,732
87,535
93,851

1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
7
7
9
9
8
9
9
9
8
7
8
8
8
8

7
9
7
0
4
6
6
6
0
4
3
3
6
8
9
2
5
1
9
7
0
7
0
0
6
1
2
7
2
8
0
4
9
7

,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,

9
0
9
3
2
9
3
0
6
2
6
2
8
1
0
0
3
4
7
3
9
8
7
0
8
3
6
0
8
6
4
,
, 9
, 5

8
4
7
8
1
0
6
5
8
5
2
4
8
8
8
9
8
3
8
3
4
3
1
4
4
7
3
5
5
2
8
4
5
8

6
5
8
3
5
6
3
4
7
8
2
1
5
1
1
7
5
2
8
1
6
1
2
3
6
7
1
0
8
9
0
1 7
0
8

14,451
12,711
14,124
18,81*3
20,237
21,844
20,069
2 2,628
27,4«7
30,301
28,034
30,376
32,930
33,119
35,C32
37,Q?»7
40,8^5
49,117
58, 6?4
62,967
68,678
79,913
92,979
91,674
88,616
107,8f>l
13 3,816
129,430
121,052
129,984
147,857
179,875
201,475
233,5%8

AVERAM
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
9
8
9
9
8
7
7
8
9
8
9

8
7
9
3
5
7
4
8
3
5
2
5
8
8
0
3
8
6
4
9
4
3
3
0
7
2
7
5
7
9
3
0
7
6

,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,

8
8
0
1
2
2
8
4
3
6
7
4
3
7
7
4
0
8
7
5
1
1
0
2
7
4
8
8
7
7
3
6
9
0

9
2
1
7
7
3
9
8
2
5
5
7
4
3
2
9
0
3
7
0
3
1
6
2
6
4
6
6
5
4
8
9
7
5

4
7
3
6
0
6
3
9
4
1
8
4
0
8
9
7
4
0
9
3
2
4
0
0
3
9
1
4
8
7
4
3
5
0

1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
6
6
7
8
9
8
8
9
9
8
7
8
8
8
8
9

:i4,213
12,616
"5,492
1,9,239
20,9 38
21,383
19,996
23,767
28,151
^9,686
28,151
31,093
33,044
3 3,308
35,353
:i8, 48 2
42,143
; i, • 8 7
>
>
t 0 ,
>

212

K4,161
"U, 159
ii 2 , 6 8 8

91,404
512,261
fU , 4 0 3
1.'.0,8 05
I'39, 361
i;>6,475
12 3,097
133,210

1!U,851
i«5,iB3
207,727
243,691

i \

L 'i

u

-)4 '

11>

i

?]

•»

i

L ' •
'

•1 '
i ^ •

.'h
J"*n
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it <> I 1
i i
1
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1 .
40

r

In
.
7

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iH
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h2 l 1
r,H I
'H
tl

, ,

l
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l

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l.t!

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11)4

.in I

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**

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1 it
1 .V
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1 . -t
e" I
/**
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1 i
, ) •
t

•'•

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M"«
1
) ^

P A P E R —

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
18,640
18,592
18,311
22,456
24,893
27,518
26,023
27,355
32,487
35,431
32,667
34,775
38,308
38,631
40,249
42,797
46,813
54,150
62,932
68,641
72,594
80,881
92,636
87,708
88,512
92,087
96,806
90,121
79,348
79,010
82,740
87,748
90,522
90,592

13,791
13,392
13,009
18,393
19,840
21,746
20,809
21,420
26,393
29,729
28,267
29,569
32,632
33,018
34,300
36,608
39,858
47,043
55,951
62,207
67,286
77,427
91,764
90,994
87,786
103,320
124,826
133,912
121,317
127,935
143,163
169,042
199,630
219,674

8
7
9
3
5
7
4
9
3
5
2
6
8
8
1
3
8
7
5
9
5
4
1
9
9
4
6
4
8
0
3
9
7
6

1
0
3
0
2
7
7
9
2 0
5
6
1
3
9
3
5
3
0
5
5
3
0
5
3
1
4
6
0
7
8
8
7
1
3

18,787
17,857
19,619
23,421
26,360
27,070
25,147
29,633
33,741
34,711
32,973
36,245
38,384
38,815
41,654
44,713
48,757
58,255
66,449
70,451
75,757
84,058
91,123
89,265
90,327
94,901
96,890
84,335
79,174
80,544
84,251
88,552
88,962
98,178

1.9

,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,

-1.9
12.7
13.7
5.8
23.0
1.1
10.9

3
9
3
3
7
1
9
3
4
2
3
0
2
7
3
9
1
5
7
9
0
0
7
5
3
1
B
5
2
1
3
7
6
9

7
5
3
2
4
9
1
7
6
6
1
4
3
5
4
8
2
8
2
1
5
2
2
5
5
3
6
4
4
3
4
4
2

,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,

7
8
7
6
7
5
7
0
8
5
1
4
3
8
8
4
5
6
7
7
6
4
9
8
2
8
1
1
0
6
5
1
2
2

1
2
1
1
-

2
2
1
7
5

5
1
6
8
4
0
0
5
4
1
5
9
1
9
6
8
3
3
2
8
6
3
2
6
8
6
4
6
4
7
8
5
1
5

0
3
8
6
1
1
5
5
4
4
2
2
6
1
6
2
2
0
4
6
9
7
8
2
2
0
7
7
9
6
9
4
2
3

18,399
18,743
18,133
22,028
24,655
27,504
26,070
26,933
32,064
35,147
32,844
34,199
37,789
38,526
39,954
42,733
46,468
53,713
61,872
68,653
72,328
80,178
92,183
88,489
88,494
92,365
96,264
92,211
79,344
78,280
81,960
86,833
89,991
88,970

» ><
•

1

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I

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78,216
79,4
20
83,378
89,601
87,918
93,938

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1)8,605

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H?' '5 (Ml
ay, Ill's
IM
'

CHANGE IN CREDIT 3UTSTANDING—BUSINESS AND CONSUMER BORROWING
!ANNUAL RITE. PPRPPMTl

14.8
3.0
16.9
22.5
5.0
14.7
2.4

14^4
7.5

1 9 5 6 ^
1 9 5 7 ,

18,089
18,870
18,093
21,548
24,478
27,465
26,173
26 ,4X8
31,644
34,895
33,178
33,633
37,334
38,435
39,696
42,68 4
46,075
53,017
60,869
68,748
72,228
79,531
91,7 23
88,703
88,434
92,833
95,821
94,507
79,376
77,847
81,146
86,086
90,226
86,979

14,385
12,833
13,619
18,757
20,141
21,778
20,651
22,244
27,145
30,245
28,039
30,026
32,993
33,012
34,740
36,872
40,428
48,072
57,838
62,824
68,015
79,055
92,565
90,028
33,482
106,590
130,725
130,741
121,365
128,936
147,085
175,782
200,314
228,589

O U T S T A N D I N G — P L U S

IN 1972 DOLLARS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1

14,065
13,163
13,242
18,646
19,969
21,747
20,650
21,796
26,799
30,033
28,079
30,042
33,011
32,955
34,509
36,740
40,137
47,718
56,955
62,494
67,664
78,541
92,389
90,671
88,246
105,163
1 26,526
131,397
122,038
129,023
145,623
172,073
201,863
224,215

Annual

IV Q

III Q

II Q

17.9
1.5
13.1
15.6
7.8
18.a
-1.0

21.8
-0.8
17.5
15.2
5.3
15.1
-1.2

isls




19.4
-0.7
29.2
6.0
21.0
5.0
-1.5

25.5
-1.0
42.3
2.2
16.0
8.7
2.6

16.9
3.6
32.4
7.0
10.0
9.7
-15.2

9.7
1 0 . 2
3 7 . 7

3,5
2 2 . 4

1.8
4.8

3.9
3.1

2.1
.
.
.
.
.

3
1
2
8
5

2 1 . 3

2.8
1 6 . 1
1 9 . 8

7 .7
17.0
-0.2

24.2
1.2
22.0
11.0
14.1
11.2
-1.7

17 , 4
,

0.7

4.3

14.1
13.7
a. 5
21.1
-0.9

37.5

5.5
14 ,,8
7 ,4
,
-3.,2

1

1

.

15

It..*
14.4

a. v
I B . •"
"

14^0
7.2

1L7
9.4

10 is

io!l
5.6

1 0

9.2

14.5
10,3
4.5

16.6
9.7
5.3

16.8
10.8
5.9

15.3
6.7
6.4

16.3
5.7
7.8

1 3 . 9

11.4
10.6
13.2
9.3
4.6
8.6

13.5
10.8
12.5
8.1
4.0
11 .6

12.8
12.2
14.0
7 .9
3.7
8.0

11.9
10.1
10.6
7.2
6.8
7.2

13.3
11.7
10.2
7.3
6.2
8.1

12.5
10.7
12.7
7.0
6.5
8.1

1 3 . 2
1 3 . 2
1 2 . 9

8.4
15.4
18.C
9.3
-1.5
7.21
15.1
18.8
12.6
7.6
4.4

6.1
16.0
16.1
19.0
-0.1
5.7
15.4
16.0
17,8
0.8
10.6

11.1
13.4
16.0
13.6
-1.5
11.1
15,5
18.1
14.9
-4.0
11.5

7.1
13.8
16.3
9.0
0.1
11.5
16.4
16.7
14.6
2.1
8.8

7.4
11.5
14.2
14.9
6.1
9.1
13.1
14.4
14.6
0.1
9.9

15.3
13.6
14.8
11.3
4.6
9.7
17.0
13.2
13.3
6.8
9.2

I S . 8
1 1 . 6

13 " 9
.
9.4
6.4

1 7 . 2
2 0 , 3

7.3
1 8 . 3

9.5

18^8
10.9

These series are introduced i n t h i s issue.

100

31.3
5.2
19.3
11.9
16.0
13.6
-2.3

3^0
2,3

.8

7.3

1 3 , 0

7.6
8.3

4.2
7.1
9.2

7,7

6.9
3.0
1 4 , 5

9,6
9,9
4.2
S.7
1 Q , 9

8.4
1 9 . 0
1 2 . 0

4,1
7,4

1 2 . 1

4.5
1
1
1
1

0
4
2
5

.
.
.
.

3
5
5
8

8.6
9.3

1
1
1
1

3
5
2
0

,
.
.
.

5
5
8
9

7,7
3.6

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i

10^4
1.6

9.4
4.9

11.2
8.2
9 .8

10*.l

14.7
9.6
10.7
4.2
8.8
11.0

1 2 . 4
1 2 . 6
1 0 . 3

11.8
16.5
10.6
5.5
6.3
13.8
16.2
15.0
5.7
9.4
3.7

1 0 . 0
1 5 . 2
7 .9

5.0
1 0 . 6

3.7
9.8
1 1 . 9

1.8
9.2
1 2 . 7
1 5 . 4
1 1 . 6

8.9
8.4
3.5

11.7
11.4
13.3
10.3
3.4
8.2
10.9

13.7
8.7
1.8
16.0
10.3
5.4
12.1
12.7
11.0
12.4
7.7
4.8
8.9
11.5

8.6
13.0
20.5
11.7
1.9
7.9
14.5
15.1
15.4
11.1
6.1

8.1
14.4
16.1
13.9
-0.5
9.4
15.8
16.9
15.8
-0,4
10.3

15.5
8.5
0 .8
12.1
11.1
5.3

10.5
7 ,4
S .6
15 ,,2

6.,7
7.5
11.7
13.0
11 ,,9
11.9
6.2
6.6
8.0
12.,8
12., 2

12.2
12.8
5.1
9 ,,7
14 ,,9
13.4
14.6
5.2
9 ,5
,

1 2 . 7>.
fi .'1

10,8
11.4
6.7
9.5
12.5
13.9
10,6
10.3
4.0
3.4
11.3
6.6
J.6
10.1
lfi.9
10.2
3.8
7.6
13.3
15.7
13.1
3.5
3.5
3 ,6

4 ,H

L3.7
H. 1
6.')
II.1*

U.i*
i2J'i
7 .:•!
[j # : i

ill
') , '3
14 ! I
M..<!
10. i
1 .

i

It). I
L i . ->

14.M
1U.

IS
'

6.1
1.4

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q
51.9
46.9
55.4
56.0
56.1
59.0
57,3
66.4
66,6
65.0
63.4
74.0
71.0
74 ,8
78.7
84.4
89.8
95.3
100.4
98.1
105.4
112,0
105.0
113.4
123.1
133.3
125.1
113.4
130.5
139.1
146.5
146.8
132.1
14 4 . 1

910. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS
(1967=100)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. . .
1955...
1956...
1957...

52.8
48.2
52.2
58.7
55.5
59.7
55.6
64.1
67.0
65.4

1958 . . ,
1959...
I960., .
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963.,.
1964...
1965.. .
1966.. .
1967. . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971, . .
1972. . .
1973.,.
1974., .
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977. . ,
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .

6 2.2
71.4
72.9
70.9
78.8
81.6
87.2
94.5
99.9
97.4
104.4
112.2
107.5
108.6
119.2
132,4
128.7
107.7
126.1
134.5
141.0
147.7
141.4
142.1

51.3
47.8
53.0
58.2
55,6
59.8
56.1
65.2
66.7
65.3
61.6
72.3
72.1
71.4
79.9
82.4
88.2
94.8
100.8
97.0
105,5
112.1
106.6
110.2
120.7
134.1
128.0
107.6
128.0
136.5
142.8
147.5
140.4
140.4

51.5
47.4
53.3
57.9
55.8
60.1
56.1
66.0
67.1
65.3
62.0
73.7
70.8
72.7
80.0
83.2
88.4
95.2
101.9
96.9
105.7
111.7
105.5
111.9
122.2
134.2
127.8
107.8
128.8
138.4
144.9
149.3
137.4
141.7

52.1
46.8
54.4
56.7
55.4
59.7
56.7
66.1
67.4
64.8

51.7
47 .0
55.4
56.3
55.9
59.1
57.3
66.5
66 .3
65.0

52.0
46.8
56.3
55.1
57.1
58.1
57,9
66.7
66.0
65.3

52.0
47,7
58.6
54.5
56.8
58,2
58.7
67.4
66.4
65.2

62.2
74.0
70.9
73.9
79.6
83.9
89.3
95.0
101.5
97.1
104.7
112.7
104.5
112.9
123.0
133.4
126.1
111.0
129.3
138.5
146.3
146.4
133.4
144.6

63.4
74.2
71,0
74,8
78.7
84.7
90.2
95.6
100.2
97 .9
105.4
112.2
105.1
113.7
122.9
133.5
125.5
113.4
130.5
138.9
146.4
147.6
130.9
144.5

73.7
71.1
75.7
77.9
84.5
89.9
95.3
99.4
99.2
106.0
111.2
105.5
113.5
123.3
133.1
123.8
115.8
131.6
139.8
146.9
146.5
132.0
143.2

73.4
71.4
75.7
78.7
84.3
90.8
95.5
99.1
100.1
106.9
110.2
104.8
113.3
124,4
132.7
123.5
118.2
132.2
138.5
145.4
145.2
135.1
142.9

51.1
48.9
59.9
54.1
57.5
57.3
58.'
67. i
66. >
65.
73.
71.'
76."
79,3
84.7
91.5
95.8
98.3
101.9
106.5
110.3
104.7
113.7
126.0
131.5
120.3
119.0
131.9
140.5
146.2
144.5
138.3
142.4

50.0
49.5
47.9
57,6
57.9
63.8
60,0
61.9
68.3
69.6
64.3
67.0
71.9
67.0
7 2.0
74.5
78.6
85.4
93.6
99.4
102.8
109.1
110.8
108.6
114.0
125.5
128.7
116.2
121.4
128.3
137.1
149.3
150.7
146.8

49.9
49.1
47.6
57.4
58.8
64.3
60.0
62.3
68.2
70,0
63.0
67.7
71.6
66.8
72.7
75.1
79.4
86.0
94.3
98.8
103.5
109.9
1,1.0.8
108.5
114.4
127.0
128.0
114.6
122.9
129.2
138.3
149.4
149.6
147.2

50.0
48.1
50.3
57.9
58.5
64.9
59.1
64.3
68.8
69.3
61.0
69-8
71.3
67.5
7 3.7
76.0
80.4
87.3
95.5
99.1
104.4
110.8
110.5
109.1
116.6
127.2
127.6
113.3
124.3
131.6
143.0
149.1
145.1
147.1

50.4
48.5
49.1
57.6
58.7
64.9
59.4
63.5
68.2
69.9
62.1
68.8
71.0
67.3
73.2
75.4
79.5
86.8
95.4
98.9
104.0
110.5
110.8
108.8
115.6
127.4
127.8
113.0
123.6
130,9
140.0
151.2
148.1
147.2
930.

50.3
47.5
51.4
57.8
58.8
65.0
58.9
65.2
68.4
68.9
61.2
70.6
70 .9
68.3
73.7
76.3
81.0
87.9
96.0
99.0
105.2
110.8
110.1
109,6
117.2
127.5
128,2
114.1
124.6
132.5
143.1
150.6
14 2.4
146.9

50.1
50.8
58.4
54.9
58.7
55.8
60.9
67.1
66.4
63.5

49.3
51.1
57.5
54.9
58.9
55.3
62.3
67.5
66.4
62.7

48 .9
51.4
57.6
55.4
59.1
55.4
63.1
67.2
66.0
62.1

73,3
71.5
76 .4
79.9
85,7
92.7
96.4
97.3
102.3
108.1
110.8
104.9
114.6
127.5
130.9
116.5
120.6
132.4
141.1
146.8
144.5
141.2
139.3

72.7
71.2
77.5
80.0
86,3
92.8
97.0
96.7
102.5
110.3
110.7
104.4
115.5
129.4
131.0
113.5
122.0
132.2
141.9
147 .9
141.7
142.4
136.9

71.9
70.8
78.5
80.8
86.5
93.1
98.0
96.5
103.2
110.8
109.5
105.0
116.5
130.3
131.1
111.2
122.4
133.5
141.6
147 .6
140.1
143.4
137.0

73.2
70.4
78.8
81.0
86.7
93.7
99.1
96.4
104.4
111.5
109.1
107.3
118.0
131.4
128.7
109.2
122.8
134.5
142.4
147.2
140.5
143.0
136.2

51.9
47,8
52.8
58.3
55.6
59.9
55.9
65.1
66.9
65.3
61.9
72.5
71.9
71.7
79.6
82.4
87.9
94.8
100.9
97.1
105.2
112.0
* 106.5
110.2
120.7
133.6
128.2
107.7
127.6
136.5
142.9
148.2
139.7
141.4

49.4
51.1
57.8
55.1
58.9
55.5
62.1
67,3
66.3
62.8
70.0
72.6
70.8
78.3
80.6
86.5
93.2
98,0
96.5
103.4
110.9
109.8
105.6
116.7
130.4
130.3
111.3
122.4
133,4
142.0
147.6
140.8
142.9
136.7

51.1
48.7
56,3
56.0
57.1
57.9
58.6
66.6
66.5
64,5
65.7
73.1
' 71.3
75.2
79.6
84.5
90.6
96.0
99.0
100.0
107.2
111.1
105.5
113.5
125.0
132.2
121.2
115.7
130.9
139.4
145.8
145.1
138.2
140.9

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

51.4
47.1
56.5
57.6
59.9
64.1
58.7
66.2
68.2
69.1
63.6
68.1
69.7
70.1

51.3
47.8
55.8
57.3
61.6
63.4
59.0
66.7
68.9
68.4
64.2
67.9
69.3
70.2

51.4
45.7
56.0
57.6
62.5
63.1
59.4
67.4
69.6
67.7
64.6
67 .6
69.1
71.0

51.1
46.6
55.8
57.8
62.8
61.9
60.4
67.8
69.4
66 .6
66.2
68.3
68.1
72.0

50.6
47.2
57.1
57.7
63.4
60.8
61.2
68.2
69.9
65.4
65.9
70.9
67.2
72.4

50.1
49 .0
48.2
57.5
58.5
64.3
59.8
62.6
68.2
69.8
63.1
67.8
71.5
67 .0

50,5
47.6
51.5
57.9
58.6
64.9
59.0
65.0
68.5
69.1
61.4
70.4
70.9
68 .4

51.3
47.2
55.7
57.4
59.6
64.1
58.8
66.4
67.7
68.9
63.6
68.7
69.7
69.9

51.0
46.5
56.3
57.7
62,9
61.9
60.3
67.8
69.6
66.6
65.6
68.9
68.1
71.8

50.7
47.6
52.9
57.6
59.9
63.8
59.5
65.4
68.5
68.6
63.4
69.0
70.0
69.3

76 .6
81.2
88.5
97.1
99.2
106.0
111.4
109.7
109.8
116.9
127.8
128.3
114.9
124.8
133.6
144.2
150.6
141.1
147.5

76,8
81.9
89.4
97.3
99.5
106.6
112.1
109.8
109.6
117 .8
128,7
128.2
115.6
125.3
134.3
145.0
151,0
140.8
147.6

76.9
82.5
89.6
97.6
100.3
106.8
112.5
109.3
109.3
119.3
127.8
127.3
117.3
125.5
134.6
145.9
150.6
141.2
147.3

77.4
83.1
90.2
97.7
100.4
107.1
112.6
109.0
110.1
119.9
128.7
126.5
118.1
125.6
135.8
146.1
150.4
142.7
146.5

78.0
82.1
91.2
98.3
100.3
107.7
112.9
106.7
110 .2
121.8
129 .7
125.2
118.5
125.3
136.6
147.4
150.3
144.2
144,5

77.7
83.7
92.1
98.3
102.0
108.5
111.9
105.8
111.0
123.2
130.7
1.22,2
118.9
126.8
137.2
148.4
149.9
145.3
143.0

78.3
85.1
93 .0
98.6
103.3
108.9
112.0
107.6
112.2
124.5
129.8
118.4
119.5
127.8
138.1
149,7
150.0
146.1
140.9

75.0
79.2
86.1
94.4
99.0
103.4
109.8
110.8
108 .6
114.7
126.6
128.2
114.6
122.6
129.5
138.5
150.0
149.5
147.1

76.3
80.9
87.9
96.2
99.1
105.2
111.0
110.1
109.5
116.9
127.5
128.0
114.1
124.6
132.6
143,4
150.1
14 2.9
147.2

77.0
82.5
89.7
97.5
100.1
106.8
112.4
109.4
109.7
119.0
128.4
127.3
117.0
125.5
134,9
145,7
150.7
141.6
147 .1

78.0
83.6
92.1
98.4
101.9
108.4
112.3
106.7
111.1
123.2
130.1
121.9
119.0
126.6
137.3
148.5
150.1
145.2
142.8

76.6
81.5
89.0
96.6
100.0
106.0
111.4
109.2
109.7
118 .4
128.2
126.4
116.2
124.8
133.6
144 .0
150.2
144.8
146.0

40.0
39.3
42.8
50.2
53.3
57,9
52.6
60.0

40.2
39.0
4 3.7
50.3
53.8
57.3
52.7
60.2

40.0
38.6
44.5
50.8
54.1
56.3
53.0
61.2

40.0
38.8
45.1
50.6
55.2
55.3
52.6
62.5

40.2
38.9
45 .6
51.3
56.5
54,9
53.2
63.9

39.7
38.8
46.5
52.2
56.8
54.3
53.9
64.4

1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965

6 7.0
71.8
64.1
74.9
76.7
73.8
77.9
81,9
87.0

66.6
69.3
64.0
76.2
76.6
73.5
78.1.
82.9
87.7

67.0
69.2
64.3
77.0
75.8
73.9
78.3
83.4
88.2

67.8
67.8
64.3
77.3
75.0
74.5
78.3
83.8
88.9

68.1
64.6
66.1
78.6
74.5
74.8
78.5
83 .5
89.8

1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

99.3
99.8
104 .9
114.8
109.1
104.4
106.2
\14 .6
121.0
104.3
103.8
111.4
119.2
126.2
121.7

100.3
100.3
105.9
115.1
108.3
104.4
107.6
113.6
118.6
103.3
104.2
112.3
118.8
130.2
119.0

100.2
101.1
107.0
113.7
107.2
104.7
109.4
115.6
115.2
102.8
104.7
111.6
121 .7
132.3
119.0

100.2
101.5
108.0
113.6
107.3
105.1
109.6
116 .7
112.8
103.4
105.2
112,8
121 .0
129.6
122.2




51.1
49.1
59.2
54.4
57.8
57.1
58.9
67.6
66.4
64.8
67.5
73.3
71.4
76.3
79.3
84.9
91.7
95.9
98.2
101.4
107.2
110.4
104.8
113.9
126.0
131.7
L20.1
119.3
132.2
140.0
146.1
144.7
138.2
141.5

51.3
46.6
54.7
57.3
57.3
64.9
58.7
66.2
65.9
69.1
63.1
70.2
70.0
69.4

COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS
(1967=100)

ivisions beginning with 1948.

Annual

51.2
47.2
52.7
57.9
58.4
64.7
58.9
65.6
68.4
69.1
62.1
70.8
70.4
69.3

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956

99.6
100.4
105,6
114.8
108,8
104.2
107.3
114.4
119.0
103.8
104.3
111.6
119,7
127.1
120.7

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR
50.2
50.6
59.2
54.7
59.2
55.9
59.7
67.9
66.3
64.2

920. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1M0...
1961..,
1962. . .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970. . .
1971. . .
1972.,.
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975...
1976, . .
1977, . .
1978...
1979.,.
1980. . .
1981.. .
1982,. .

III Q

AVERAGE FOR

39.2
38.7
47.1
51.9
57.3
53.5
56.5
64.9
71.0
61.9
71.4
78.4
73.1
76.2
80.0
85.0
90.7

38.8
40.1
47.3
51.9
57.9
53.2
56.9
65.9
72.3
63.5
75.1
75.8
73.4
76.6
80.3
85.9
90.5

39.7
41.4
47.8
51.7
58.1
53.0
58.2
66.0
71.8
64 .0
76.3
75.8
73.1
77.1
80.7
86.6
91.2

39.2
42.5
48.3
52.3
58.3
53.0
59 .4
66.6

39.4
42.0
49 .4
53.0
58.5
52.9
59.4
66.4

40.1
39.0
43 .7
50.4
53.7
57.2
52.8
60.5

40.0
38.8
45.7
51.4
56,2
54.8
53.2
63.6

63.3
68.3
79.4
73.7
75.6
79.0
84 .3
89.9

39.7
38.5
47,0
52.3
56.9
54.1
54.2
66.1
68.4
62.6
69.4
79.2
73.3
75.9
79.5
83.8
89.7

63.8
76.4
76.4
72.6
77.5
82.1
85.7
91.9

100.4
101.8
109.2
114.0
105.2
105.9
110.7
117.1
108.6
102.9
106.3
113.7
122.3
125.5
122.4

100.5
101.5
109.3
113.5
106.0
105.4
112.0
117.1
108.0
103.2
106.2
114.3
122.3
121.8
122.5

99.8
102.2
109.9
114.1
107.0
105.0
112.0
117.2
106.9
103.2
107.2
114.8
123.0
120.5
123.3

100.3
102.5
110.4
113.6
106.9
104,9
113.2
118.6
105.9
103.9
107.7
115.4
124.7
119.4
124.7

100.1
102 .6
111.1
113.5
106.4
105.1
113.3
118.7
106.0
104.2
108.3
115.3
125.8
119.0
125 .0

99.6
103.2
111.3
112.8
106 .0
105.1
113.6
119.7
104 .7
103.8
109.0
117.1
126 .3
120.1
124.5

64.7
75.2
77.2
73.0
78-0
82.4
86.1
92.3
99.3
99.6
104.3
111.8
111.0
105.9
104 .8
114.5
121.1
104.6
103.7
109 .4
118.0
126.1
123.0
124.4

70.1
64.1
76.0
76.4
73.7
78.1
82.7
87.6
93.1
99.7
100..2
105.5
114.9
108.7
104.3
107.0
114,2
119,5
103.8
104.1
111.8
119.2
127.8
120.5

65.2
66.2
78.4
74.4
75.0
78.6
83,9
89,5
95.5
100.3
101.5
108.1
113.8
106.6
105.2
109.9
116.5
112.2
103.0
105.4
112.7
121 .7
129.1
121.2

39.2
39.1
47.1
52.0
57.4
53.6
55.9
65.6
70.6
62,7
72,0
77.8
73.3
76.2
79.9
84.9
90.3
97.3
102*1
109.9
113.7
106.6
105.1
112.4
117.6
106.9
103.4
107.0
114.8
123.3
120.6
123.5

'ERIOD
39.4
42.0
48.5
52.3
58.3
53.0
59.0
66.3
72.5
64*2
76.0
76.5
72.9
77.5
81.7
86.1
91.8
98,7
99*. 8
103.4
111.4
112.4
106.1
105.0
113.8
119.8
105.1
103.9
108.9
116.8
126.1
120 .7
124.6

38.0
39.7
39.7
46.3
51.5
56.4
54.6
55.2
64.0
69.5
65.5
69.6
77.2
74.2
75.6
79.6
84.4
89.8
96.2
100*0
101.8
108,7
113.7
107,0
104 .9
110.8
117.0
110.9
103.5
106.4
114 .0
122.6
124.6
122.4

(FEBERUARY 1983)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb,

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

IQ

96.9
97.1
102.2
101.1
103.8
94.4
97.7
100.4
99.3
91.1
95.8
98.9
91.4
97.2

101.7
93.8
97.2
104 .3
101.3
104.0
93.5
99.3
99.0
98.5
90.0
98.0
96.9
92.9

101 . 3
92 .(5
100 . 1
102 . 5
100 . 2
102 . 6
93 . 8
100 a
98 . 4
97 . 0
91 . 3
98 . 7
95 . 0
95.1

100 • 5
94
104 , 0
99 , 2
101 • i
99 * 2
94 • a
99 , 8
98 . 4
9fi . 6
94 . 3
97
94
9(i . 5

97 . 2
98 , 6
101 . 6
101 . 9
100 . 8
102 . 2
100 . 3
94 . 9
97 .5
101 a
101 .0
92 . 0
95 . 6
96 a
98 . 0
98 . 8
96 . 1
94 . 2
90 . 3

97.3
99.2
102.1
101.0
101.1
102.0
100.4
95.9
98.6
101.1
9 9.B
91 a
97.0
96.9
98.7
99.1
96.3
94.5
89.3

96.8
97.4
100.2
102.9
99.8
100.9
102.1
98.3
96.5
99.2

97 a
98 . 4
100 . 1
103 .0
99 . 4
101 . 2
102 a
96 . 3
96 . 8
99 . 3
101 . 3
98 . 4
91 . 9
96 . 2
97 . 2
98 . 3
96 . 2
89 .4
94 . 5

97 . 3
98 . 9
100 a
102 . 6
100 . 1
101 . 3
101 . 4
96 . 4
96 , 2
99 .a
100 . 6
97 , 2
94 . 4
9S . S
96 . 6
97 . 7
96 . 3
92 3
93 3

92 . 8
93 . 9
96 a
94 .0
96 a
93 a
97 . 2
98 .4
96 . 3
93 . 0
97 . 8
97 . 2
94 a
96 . 7
97 .3
99 0
100 . 2
101 . 2
96 . 0
102 . 3
106 . 3
105 6
104 . 6
109 5
113 . 0

93 .0

99.2
90.3
95.5
96.6
95.2

Nov.

100.0
93.3
103.5
99.3
104.5
9(5.4
95.9
100.4
100.0

99
93
102
100
104
94

II Q

9.13. COMPOSITE IN ?ex OF MARGINAL EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS'
(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949...
1950...
195J
1952. . .
1953...
1954. . .

1955...
1956. . .
1957. . .
1958...
1959. . .
1960. . .
1961...
1962, . .
196 3 . , .
1964. . .
1965. . .
1966...
1967...
19 6 8 . . .
1969. . ,
1970...
1971. . .
1972. . .
1973. , ,
1974.. .
1973.. .
1976. . .
1977. . .
1978...
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981. . .
1982.. .

102 . 6
94
96

a
.8

104
101
104
93
98
99
98
90
97

.3

98

.3

a
.5
.4
.8
.6
.7
.2
.6

92 .6
96 .9
96 .4
96 .9

100 , 0
102
101 . 3
100 . 0
102 . 1
99 . 2
96 . 5

a

98 .9

101

.1

.0
90 . 0
97 . 9
95 . 9
97 . 6
9B . 5
96 . 3
9 4 .2
99

101.3
92.9
98.1
104.(5
101.1
103.8
93 .4
100.1
98,7
98.5
89.4
98.9
95 a

101.3
94 .4
96.6
104 a
101.5
104.0
93.5
99.4
98.4
98.5
89.8
97.9
97.1
91.9
97.2
96.9
97. 6
100.0
102.7
99.4
101.2
101.6
98.3
96.5
99.2
102.4
98.7
B9.7
98.1
96.6
97.2
98.4
96.4
94.1

94.2

97a
97.6

ioo.a
103.3
98.&
101.4
102.3
97.4
96.5
99.5
101.9
98.8
90.1
97.6
98.0
98.3
98.0
94.5
94.1
914.

101.4
92.0
99.1
103.6
99. S
103.7
93.0
100.3
99.5
97.3
89.7
99.0
95.1
94.9
98.0
96.7
98.6
99.7
10 3-5
98.9
100,4
10 2 „ 4
'JfKO
96.7
99,8

101.7
97.9
91.7
96a
97,3
99.0
94.6
90.3
94.9

100.6
92.4
100.4
10 2.5
100.8
102.3
93.8
100.6
97.5
96.4
91.3
98.9
95.2
94.9
97.3
97.2
98.3
100.3
103.1
99.5
101.6
102.0
96.3
96.7
99.4
101.3
99.1
91.4
96.5
97.1
98.3
97.3
88.3
94.2

101.9
93.4
100.9
101.5
100.1
101.9
94.7
99.4
98.2
97.3
92.8
98.1
94.7
95.6
96.9
97.5
98.4
100.4
102.5
99.9
10.1.5
102.0
96.6
97.0
98.7
101.0
98.2
92.5
96.1
97.2
97.8
96.7
89.6
94.5

101.5
93.7
102.8
99.8
96.3
100.9
95.3
99.1
97.8
96.7

93.7
97.5
94.4
95.4
97.1
97.6
98.8
100.2
102.0
99.7
101.3
101.5
97.7
96.9
98.8
100.5
98.1
94.5
96.1
96.7
97.4
96.4
91.7
95.0

100.2
93.5
105.5
98.7
102.6
99.4
94.4
99.5
98.6
95.9
94.4
97.0
93.9
96.5
96.3
96.9
99.4
99.6
102.8
100.3
101.1
101.2
96.3
95.7
100.2
100.3
97.0
94.5
95.5
96.2
97.3
96.0
92.2
93.6

99.8
95.1
103.8
99.2
104.3
97.4
94.6
100.7
98.7
94.1
94.8
96.8
94.0
94.7
97.0
97.4
98.4
100.5
103.0
100.4
101.6
101.4
95.2
95.9
100.3
101.1
96.5
94.3
95.0
97.0
98.5
96.4
92.9
91.4

AVERAGR K

93.2

95.3
94.6
93.2
97.1
96.1
97.6

913.6
101.1
102.5
100.2
102a
100.9
94.7
9Q.9
103.5
101.1
94.9
93.0

95a

97.4
9S.7
96.fi
93.6
90.5

97

.0
.5
.2
.4
.2
.4
.6
.0
.1
.2
.9
.9

101
99
92
95
94
92 . 7
97 , 4

96

101.9

98.8
89.9
97.9
96.8
97.7
98.3
95.7
94.1

100 . 3
90 . 7
9 4 .6

©9.0
90.3
95.6

97 .9

§6.5
95.7
96.8
92.6
99.9
98.1
95.3
91.3
98.2
97.2
94.0
97.2
97.3
99.9
100.2
101.8
97.2
104.0
108.5
10 5.1
104.9
110.3
113.0

9 4 .4
96 . 6
92 . 9
98 .5
98 a
95 2
92 5
97 . 6
97 . 5
93 .6
96 a
97 i
99 3
100 5
102 2
97 5
102 a
107 9
105 1
105 0
110 3
112 7

98
106 7
110 5

113 6
114 1
113 3

no

7

90.;;
89.9
96.3
95.5
95.5
96.2
92 a.
99.6
97.9

95.4
91.8
99.«
95.8
94.2

96.7
97.fi
99.3
100.4
102.2
9 7.9
10 5.4
107.5
104.1
106.4
110.0
112 .6
108.0
97 .13
106.(5
111.9
115. 0
116.9
109.5
109.8

97.9
106.5
111.2
1.14.8
114.6
111.8
109.3

915.

99.6
97.2
94.6
94,7
96.1
92.8
99.3
98.3
94,4
92,2
98.8
96,7
94 t 6
97.3
97,5
99,3
99.8
101.1
98 a

103.2
108.5
104.1
106.4
111.2
111.5
107.6
100,2
10 6.5
111.7
115.6
115.0
107.1
110.5

98.0
89.8
97.6
96.2
94.8
95.6
93.2
99.2
97.9
94.6
93.4
98.9
96.5
94.7

96.5
98.5
100.4
100a
100.3
99.0
102.5
107.5
104.1
107.6
111.2
111.8
107.1
101 .4
106.0
112.5
115.2
115.1
106.9
109.3

98.2
90.2
97.9
94.2
95.6
93.9
93.9
99.3
97.4
94.8
94 .4
98.4
95.7
95.4
96.3
98. 2
99.8
100.5
99.3
100.3
103.0
107.2
103.4
108.7
110.8
112.1
106.5
103 . 3
107.6
113.5
116.1
114.5
108.7
107.3

1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968 .
1969 .
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1.978...
1979.. .
1980...
1981. , .
1982..,

91

89
92

103
93
96
89
97
97

9
0
9

0
5
3
9
1
%
8

94.
91 .
98 1
96
93 3
98 8
97. 7
99. 3

102. I
103. 1
100. 5
101. 9
103. 9
100. %
99.

101.
107.
109.
92.

5
8
6
4
9

101. 2
102. %
104. 8
107. 9
100. n
100. '*

91 .7
88.4
93.9
102.9
92.5
96.6
90.7

93.6
99.1
98.4
99.0
102.4
104.7
100.6
102.0
103.8
100 .1
100.6
102.4
109.0
108.8
92.2
1(02.0
104.0
106.5
108.2
10 0 . 5
100.5

93.5
91.4
99! 3
94.7
98.6

98.3
99. 5
101,3
105. s
99.2
101.3
103. 7

99.1
101.2
10 3.0
HO.4
107.7
92.0
10.3.1
104.6
107.0
108.4
10O.S
100.7




'M . 5
1 0 'A . 6

100 . 3
101 . 2
l
)b

a

ma

100 . 6
m). 5
9 2 .2
9S , 7
9d
.4
9':> , 2
.3
9? .4
.8
10 I .6
10I .8

a

a
a

100.7
is);? a

100 . 5
9[J .2
9 7 .7

r '*•"
'! •'
Li) I , 1

111'
1

.

1.'.
M4

,.

.

<!
M'

,',

'</

..

«l

.

M-r

.1

'•'

.

11

.

'

•){ ,
lint.
ID. 1

."

l i f t .
,

llS

.

tin .
• « > » .

Ml .

101). 9

100 . 6
*h ,

§2 , 7
?3 !» . 9

» t .

.0
.0
9H . 9
*Sti . 3
94
90 . 0

)

91)

' ,

*H

.

U> .

a

) 1 ,

warn

95.1
90.4
99.2
93.7
96.0
93.8
94.7
99.0
96.4
94.4
96.2
97.8
95.5
95.9
96.8
98.4
99.8
100.4
98.2
101.5
105.4
106.7
103.2
108.6
1H.7
111.0
105.2
104 .6
107.5
114.2
114.9
114.2
110.8
107.0

93.9
92.7
97 .0
94.9
98.1
93.4
95.5
99.2
96.0
93.6
96.8
97.9
95.3
95.2
97.1
99.0
100.3
100.6
97.5
101.5
105.9
106.7
103.7
108.6
113.4
109.8
103.3
104 .2
109.3
113.7
115.4
115.3
111.8
106.3

94.3
92.6
96.1
93.8
96.5
94.2
96.7
98 .5
96.2
93.5
96.8
97.3
95.0
95.8
96.9
99.2
100.3
100.8
97.0
101.5
107.9
106.4
103.8
108.6
113.4
108.8
101.1
104.?,
109.fi
114.2
117.0
113.7
111.1
104.3

109 .4
99 7
104 5
110 7
114 3

116
113
111
105

2
2
2
4

9<i.5

97.9
9fi . 6
93.1
97.2
98.3
95.8
92.4

96.8
97.9

94.1
96 .3
97.4
99.6
100.2
101.7
9(5.2
102.6
107.3
105.8
105.9
110.2
113.6
107.4
100.8
105.1

96.5
92.5
99.3
98.0
95.3
91.9
98.5
96.8
93.9
96.7
97.3
99.5
100.4
102.1
97.5
104.1
108.0
104.8
105.4
110.5
112.8
107.6
98.0

111.8
115.0
113.4
111.4
105.1

111.2
114.5
115.2
111.5
109.9

92.3
87 a
94,9
100,0
93.0
96.4
91.4
'39.1
9 7.1
93.4
91.4
100. 2
96.2
96.7
99.6
100.2
102.0
105.1
98.7
100.7
103.9
99.3
101.7

102.7
110.6
lO6.fi
93,6
104 . 2
104 ,6

101 . 2
10 7 . 8
99,2
101 , 8

92.1
86.6
96.8
97.8
92.S
95.4
92.0
98 .a
95.9

93.8
92 .?
99.5
97.1
96.1
99 .3
100.5
101.8
104.2
98.3
100.9
103.4
101.0
101.0
102.9
110.5
105,6
94 .9

104.3
104.2
107.2
107.5
97.2
102.5

93.2
86.4
97.5
96.5
94.9
95.0
92.6
98.8
95.5
93.9
93.3
98.8

89.2
92.0
100.5
93.7
95.2
89.6
96.6
93.2
95.4

91.7
88.4
93.7
102.8
92.9
96.6
90.5

98 . 6
89 . 9
97 . 6
95 . 0
95 .0
95 . 2
93 . 3
99 . 3
97 . 9
94 . 6
93 . 3
98 . 7
96 . 3
94.9
96 .7
98 . 1
99 . 8
100 a
100 . 2
99 a
102 . 9
107 . 7
103 .9
107 . 6
111 a
111 . 8
107 . 1
101 . 6
106 . 7
112 6
115.6
114 q
107 6
109 0

95 , 2
90 .9
98 ,6
94 a
96 , 6
94.0
94 0 9
99 , 1
96 5
94 c
96 0
9B 0
9S . 6
95 .6
9& . 8
99 5
9

9')

100 6
98 . 3
101 . 1
10 5
10 6 ?
10 3 4
108 5
113.3
11(3 . 7
105
100 4
1)1 4
US 3
1] 4 6
9

n.e
106

I)

AVEKAGR !•(

97.4
95.6
98.5
99.9
101.4
103.5
98.8
100.9
103.0
101.2
99.7
103.3
109.7
104.4
95.7
104.5
103.7
107.2
106.2
95.9
102.6

93.7
88 .1
102.1
95.1
95.7
94 .4
92.5
99.8

96.6
94.1
98a

94.3
96.9
96.3

97.7
100.5
101.3
103. 3
99.5
100.8
102.7
99.5
99.3
103.5
109.1
103.5
96.7
104.4
103.1
105.8
104.6
96 .9
102.6

93.4

91.1
105.0
93.4
95.3
92.7
92.8
100.0

96.6
93.8
96.1
97.6
94.7
97.4
95.8
97.9
100.8
101.3
103.0
100.6
99.8
102.7
99.0
99.5
104.0
108.9
102.6
98,0
104.1
103.6
106.4
103.7
98.7
102.1

92.4
93.1
104.4
93.2
95.5
90.7
93.9
99.7
96.4

93.6
97.4
98.2
94 . 9
97.7
97.4
98.2
102.4
100.9
102.0
100.6
100.7
103.0
99a
100.2
104.6
109.0
100.2
100.1
103.3
104.7
106.4
102.4
101.0
101.2

91.4
93.3
103.9
94.4

95.0
89.6
95.0
99.3
96.3
93.2
97.6
98.0
9 4,5
57 . 8
97.7
9 8,4

1C2.0
100.7
101.6
ICO.7
102.1
103.1
9 7.9
100.9
105.8
1D9..3
98.4

101.0
1CU . 8

105.0
107.1
101.5
102.2
99.8

90 6
93 2

«u , 4
9.3 . 7
96 . 7
94 . 0
96 . 4
f \ .5
)
97 .0
93 . 4
96 a
93 . 0
97 a
97 . 5
94 .4
96 . 3
9? . 2
9 9.3
100 .2
101 .2
96 . 4
10 2

a

107 . 2
10'j . 9
104 . 8
109 . 4
11.1 . 3

108
100 !•>

110 . 2
114 . 4
116
111
111
104

1
4
2
9

)I. '
97 . 1
!

M . ••:

4 :J . :
'•> 4 . •'

* 4. 1
<•>•».

97.1
'i 4 . 1
94 . u
93,;i
9 3 . .• •
9 : j „ ?.
9 6 . JS
9;i. ;
t) I ) , 11
K M ) . (1

99.)
100.0
104,'t
U)?, .
1.04, .1
107. 1 '
111, B
111. 0
10 5, ,
10BJ1
U2. ( )
US.'I
1 1 4 , 'i

no.. 7
i
LO7

101

7
8
9
3

93
94
89
95 9
98

96

91

9
1
9

98
97 2
94 2
97 3
97 7
98. 5
102. 2
101. 5

101. 2
100. 9
103. 6
102. 3
97. 6
101. 0
106. 2
109. 7
96. 5

100 . 4
101. 9
104. 1
107. 5

100. 9
102. 1
98.

7

91.1
97.3
93.9
98.2
97.3
98.U
102.1
102.5
101.0
101,6
103.3
101.9
98 .4

101 a

106 , 9
109.4
94.1

99.4
102.2

104 . 5
107.8
100.7
101.7
97 .8

KK1OO

9,11 2

§';

1

90 4
92 8
102.0
94 0
9fj 0
B") 5
9'i 8

9

9 *"!

2
7

9fj

e
5

9S

97.9
97.2
94.2

92
86
96
98
93
95
92
98
96
93

99.2

99 5

m

9 5.1
93.9
98.8
98.3
99.3
102,1
104.5
100.1
101.7
103.8
99.9
100.4

93 5
96 9
96 1

9 ft

102.4
109.0
108.6
92.4
10 2.1
103.7
106.1
108.2
100.6
100.6

'This, series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user. This series contains revisions beginning with 1948.

102

w ,6

a

COMPOSITU INDEX OF INVENTORY INVESTMENT' AND PURCHASING3

91.5
87.8
94.2
102.S
92.7
97. 0
91.0
98.9
9 7 .0

97.6
97.1
i)4 m 4
91.5
99.5

m

WE RAGE V )R {
96.7
89.5
99.5
93.7
95.7
94.7
94.6
99.1
97.0
94.1
94 .9
98.3
96.0
95.7
96.6
98.0
99.6
100.7
99.3
100.4
104.8
106.7
103.3
108.4
111.8
111.3
107.0
104 .6
108.3
112.4
115.6
114.4
110.2
107.1

(1967 = 100)
1948...
1949...
1950..,
1951...
1952. . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956..,
1957.,.
1958...
1959...
1960.
1961...
196 2 , , .
1963. . .

Annual

COMPOS ITi-i INDEX OF CAPITAL ] INVESTMENT COMMITMENTS2

(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949. . .
1950.. .
1951...
1952...
1953.. .
1954 . . .
1955...
1956...
1957. . .
1958, , .
1959. . .
I960.. .
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970., .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975,..
1976..,
1977.,.
1978. . .
1979. . .
1980...
1981...
1982...

I
V

III Q

Dec.

Oct.

5
7
4
1
5
6
0

99 1
100 2
101 7
104. 3
98. 6

100. 3
103. 4
100. 5
100. 3
10 3. 0

no.

3

10 5. 5
94 . 7
10 4. 3
104. 2
107. 2
107. 2
9 7 .4
10 2 . 3

9C: B
8
9<! 9

10-i

ft

91!

i
0

9 ? (5
10 J .
10 3 .
10 V,.
lOJt.

io;t.

n
tf

B
2
•",

t

10'}.
lO'l.
10«t. 2
IR.'i. h

m\. q
10s. H

Vf.i
44 . *
< U . i'i
9 "A . '-5

it-. .;l
'?*; . J

l

97
97 5
94
97
9?
98
Id?

2
9

9 4,4

6

5
1

161 6

if);i. i?
q 9. 7
7
104. n
10 -). fi
XQ'A'* 1
9 jj

98

92.0
fl*3.7
9 l J . -)

101. 3
101 I
1G3, 0
10 2 4
9H . 0
101 *0
106. 3

IR9 . 5
3

10 0 3
' C? 0
104.
107. 'i
:tu, 0
102. 0
98. 8

ion!?

uu.s2
1.0 i .
10 n. }
101 . j

10 i a
.
10H, 3
UH.9
10 M . \
10 \\l
10 •) a
10 h . 7
9 'i. 7
LOU.}
(i-FBUUARV

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

A g Sept.
u-

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

69.7
67.2
73.7
74.1
73.0
67.0
76.4
83.0
79.0
76.2
81.8
83.7
79.9
87 .6
88.9
92.4
96.3
102.9
99.3
100.9
100.6
92.4
87.2
94.3
99.6
94.5
81.6
95.2
95.2
98.0
99.2
93.4
96.2
97.1

69.3
67.7
7 2.3
74^0
73.3
67.8
77.9
82.3
79.4
75.3
82.7
84.3
80.0
88 .4
89.3
93.4
97.4
102.8
98.8
100.9
100.4
90.6
89.4
95.4
100.0
92.3
81.5
95.4
96.4
97.4
98.6
94.0
97.1
96.2

6 6.6
68.5
68.6
70.9
7 3,4
72.8
69.4
80.0
80.9
79.3
74.3
84.4
83.8
81.1
88.9
89.7
95.3
100.0
102.5
98.9
99.4
98.9
88.8
92.5
96.4
99.5
90.4
85.3
97.5
97.4
96.0
97.7
94.3
98.7

69.2
67.8
70.6
71.7
72.1
71.2
71 .4
81.7
80.2
79.5
75.4
86.4
81.9
84.2
86.7
91.7
96.0
100.7
100.5
99.6
100.9
97.4
88.3
93.7
97.0
96.2
87.6
90.8
96.7
99.6
99.0
96.6
92.9
98.4

60.4
62.6
62.6
62.8
65.8
63.5
67.7
69.8
68.1
66.1
71.3
71.3
73.8
78.4
82.9
88.6
92.3
96.8
95.0
102.5
106.1
10.1.0
102.8
112.1
123.6
119.3
112.1
118.2
126.3
132.8
130.9
123.9
122.6
122.2

60.8
63.0
63.0
63.5
65.5
62,9
68.0
69.5
68.0
66.2
71.7
70.7
73.3
79.2
83.9
88.2
92.7
97.0
95,7
102.8
,106.5
101.2
103.7
112.7
124.7
118.4
110.5
119.0
127.6
132.9
131.0
122.2
121.7
122.2

63.2
60.8
63.9
61.5
63.9
65.7
6 3.8
68.7
69.4
68.3
66.3
72.3
71.4
74.5
80.1
85.2
88.1
93.3
97.2
9 7.1
102.8
105.0
99.7
106.5
115.8
125.9
119.0
111.0
120.0
129.2
132.4
130.4
122.3
122.2

62.2
61.5
65.3
60.8
63.5
66.2
64.1
69.6
68.1
68.2
67.6
72.8
71.9
76.2
81.8
85.9
89.1
94.1
96.5
99.1
103.0
.103.0
99.8
109.5
117,8
123.5
118.8
114.3
123.2
130.8
133.2
131.7
119.3
123.3

916. COMPOSITE INDEX OF PROFITABILITY
(1967=100)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954.
..
1955...
1956. .,
1957..,
1958. ..
1959..,
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967. . .
1968. . .
1969. ..
1970..,
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974. . .
1975. ,.
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980. ..
1981. ..
1982.
..

66.6
68,3
63.6
70,3
73.3
72,8
69.5
80.4
80.5
7y, 2
73.9

67.2
68.2
69.1
70.7
7 2.9
72.5
70.0
80.6
81.0
79.1
74.4

68.5
68.0
69.8
71.3
72.4
71.6
70.8
81.3
80.8
79.2
74.7

71 .6
72 .0
71 .3
71 .5
81 .5
80 .0
79 .5
75 .4

84.4
80.5
88.5
89.6
94.6
99.1
103.0
98.8
100.3
99.5
89.5
91.2
96.1
100.2
91.4
83.2
97.0
97.0
96.2
98.4
94.5
98.2

84.1
80.8
89.3
89.6
95.5
100.4
102.9
98.8
99.0
99.0
88.0
93.0
96.4
99,7
89.9
85.3
97,9
97.2
95.4
97.4
95.1
98.8

83.0
8 2.1
88.9
90.0
95.7
100.5
101.7
99.1
99.0
98.1

82.4
83.4
88.1
91.2
95.9
XO0.7
101.6
99.4
100.4
97.9
89.1
93.8
97.0
97.3
88.7
88.8
97.1
98.8
97.9
97.2
92.5
98.7

81 .4
84 .5
86 .7
91 .9
96 .0
101 .0
100 .2
99 .7
101 .0
97 .8
.0
93 .5
96 .9
96 .0
87 .7
91 .0
96 .5
99 .6
99 .6
96 .4
92 .7
98 .1

93! 3
96.8
98.5
89.9
87.3
97.5
98.1
96,3
97.3
93.2
99.0
917.

1948. . .
1949...
1950...
1951. ..
1952...
1953. ..
1954.
..
1955. ..
1956...
1957.. .
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962.
. .
1963. ..
1964.
. .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969. ..
1970. ..
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975,
..
1976...
1977,,.
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981,
..
1982.
..

69 .5
67 .7

66.1
69.1
68.1
71.6
74.0
73.1
68.6
79.1
81.2
79.5
74.7

64.3
60.8
63.9
62.4
(S3.8
65.5
63.4
68.5
69.4
68.1
65.7
72.4
70.9
73.6
79.6
84.8
87,9
92,8
97.5
95.9
102.7
105.9
100.8
104.6
113.8
126.2
118.6
110.4
118.7
128.7
132.5
131.9
121.9
122.2

62.3
60.8
64.0
61,4
63.8
65.4
64,0
68.7
69.1
68,1
66.3
72. 3
71.6
74.5
80.0
85.3
88.4
93.3
9 7.1
97.0
102.8
105.0
99.6
106.6
115.8
126.6
119.1
110.8
120.6
129.2
131.9
129.9
122.5
122.1

62.9
60.9
63.9
60.7
64.0
66.3
64.0
68.9
69.6
68.8
66.8
72.3
71.8
75.5
80,8
85.4
88.1
93.9
97.0
98. 5
102.9
104.0
98.8
108 .3
117.7
124.8
119.4
111.8
120.8
129.7
132.9
129.5
122.4
122.2

81.8
84.7
85.4
92.1
96.0
100.4
99.8
99.6
101.3
96.5

73 .2
72 .0
70 .5
72 .8
83 .0
80 ,4
80 .0
76 .9
85 .3
81 .4
85 .0
86 .1
92 .0
96 .7
100 .6
99 ,4
100 .1
101 .2
95 .4

68.7
68.9
73.2
74.6
72.0
68,7
74.4
83.3
79.6
78.3
79.0
83.6
80.7
86.1
87.3
92.7
96.5
101.8
98.0
101.0
100.8
94.0

93.7
97.1
95.2
86. 3
92.7
96.4
100.4
99.6
96.3
93.5
98.4

94 .1
97 .2
94 .9
83 ,7
94 .0
96 .6
101 .2
99 .5
96 ,1
94 .1
98 .2

94 .3
97 .8
94 .2
81 .0
94 .1
96 .2
101 .5
100 .5
96 .4
94 .5
98 .5

94.9
98.0
94.6
80.1
94.1
96.3
100.3
100.6
95.7
95.0
96.9

69.7
68,1
73.7
74!s
72.2
67.9
75.3
82.4
79.3
77.0
80.5
83.6
79.9
86.6
87.4
92.6
96.5
102.5
98.2
101.2
100.8
93.2
87.7
94 .8
98.5
95.4
80.7
94.9
95.6
98.9
100.1
94.4
95.5
96.9

61.3
62.2
65.0
62.4
65.1
64 .6
66.1
70.4
67.8
67.5
69.8
73.4
74.1
77.3
81.7
87.5
91.7
96.5
94.3
102,0
105,4
100.2
103.0
112.2
121.2
120.8
114.4
117.5
124.4
132.1
130.8
129.3
123.4
122.9

60.7
62.9
63.1
62.6
65.5
63.9
66.9
69.8
67.6
66.8
70.5
72.2
73.9
77.6
82.3
88.2
91.8
96.4
94.5
102.4
105.8
100.6
102.6
111.1
123.1
120.3
112.4
117.5
125.4
132,5
130.5
126.7
122.8
121.7

68 .8
68 .8

72.2
72.0
• 70-6

72.0
82.2
79.8
79.7
76.1

COMPOSITE INDEX OF MONEY AND FINANCIAL FLOWS
(1967=100)
62.3
61.0
64.8
60.7
63.1
66.5
63.9
68.7
68.8
68.7
67.2
72.0
71.9
75.7
81.7
85.8
88. 5
94 .0
96.8
98.7
103.2
104.0
98.8
109.1
118.3
123.7
120.8
113.1
122.0
130.1
132.8
131.4
120.2
123.5

62 .7
62 .0
65 2
60 8
63 5
66 7
64 1
69 7
68 0
68 2
67 3
72 7
71 7
76 2
81 8
86 0
89 1
94 2
96 5
99 1
102 8
103 1
100 0
no 1
117 5
123 3
118 6
114 1
124 0
131 0
133 6
131 6
118 6
123 2

61.5
61.6
65.9
61.0
64.0
65.5
64.4
70.4
67.6
67.8
68.2
73.6
72.0
76.7
81.9
85.9
89.6
94.0
96.1
99.6
103.0
102.0
100.7
109.4
117.6
123.4
116.9
115.8
123.7
131.2
133.1
132.1
119.2
123.1

61 .8
61 .9
66 .6
61 .4
63 .8
65 .6
65 .3
70 .9
67 3
67 .6
68 6
74 1
72 5
76 9
81 5
86 2
90 6
94 8
95 1
100 2
103 7
100 6
100 7
109 9
118 1
123 5
117 1
117 5
123 0
130 9
131 7
.131 6
120 2
123 3

61 .5
62 .0
65 2
62 2
63 9
65 .5
64 3
70 8
67 3
67 4
69 0
74 4
73 4
77 2
81 6
86 6
91 0
96 0
94 2
101 3
104 5
100 0
102 0
111 7
120 2
122 5
115 4
117 8
123 8
132 2
131 1
130 3
122 7
123 8

NOTE:

123.8
121.9
134.6
115.3
119.7
103.6
.117.7
113.8
103.9
89.6
104.5
96.0
87.4
97.6
95.6
96.0
98.2
101.3
100.1
103.0
104.0
96.5
99.5
109.2
118.2
112.3
96.0
116.4
123.6
123.1
125.3
119.4
120.6

122.1
122.1
131.4
116.9
119.5
104.7
118.2
113.3
105.1
90.9
105.8
94.0
87.2
98.9
96.2
95.8
98.1
101.1
99.2
103.1
104.1

121.3
127.2
129.4
115.6
120.0
105.5
119.8
111.4
104.3
89.7
107.0
92.2
88.8
99.1
96.3
95.3
98.4
101.9
98.6
103.7
104.3

120.2
129.6
128.4
115.6
117.6
106.9
122.2
110.1
102.2
90.0
108.6
92.2
90.0
98.9
97.1
95.9
98.2
101.0
98.9
103.3
103.6

118. 2
132. 1
126. 8
114. 6
115. 0
107. 3
122. 6
107. 0
101. 2
94. 7
106. 8
90. 2
91. 7
98. 5
97. 2
97. 0
97 . 9
100. 4
98. 8
103. 6
102. 6

118.9
135.8
124.5
111.9
113.9
108.5
121.7
106.2
101.5
98 .1
103 .7
88 .7
94.0
97.4
97.0
96.3
98.4
100.7
98.8
104.1
102.0

117 4
142 1
121. 9
109, 6
114 1
108 5
122. 1
99 7
101 0
100 8
101 2
88. 4
94. 7
97. 5
96. 6
97. 7
99. 7
100. 3
99. 0
105. 0
102. 6

120. 2
146. 0
122. 3
115. 4
111. 9
109. 7
117. 2
105. 1
97. 3
102. 7
95. 4
88. 9
95. 9
97. 4
96. 1
97. 1
98. 8
100. 1
100. 5
104. 5
102. 4

99.7
109.8
118.4
111.9
96.3
118.4
123.9
123.9
124.8
117.7
122.0

100.5
110.7
118.4
112.5
95.3
119.7
125.6
124.7
127.3
113.7
123.7

101.8
111.4
116,3
110.4
98.4
120.9
125.7
128.1
122.5
109.7
123.6

102. 1
111. 5
116. 3
109. 9
101. 2
120. 5
126. 0
126. 9
124. 5
109. 9
120. 2

104.4
110.4
115.4
109.6
105.8
121.3
125.7
126.8
123.1
112.4
120.5

103. 4
Ill 8
114. 9
109. 5
107. 0
121. 4
126. 5
126. 9
123. 5
115. 6
120. 5

8
102. 1
113. 6
114 .1
108. 6
109 .7
121. 6
125. 6
127. 1
122. 4
117 .2
119. 5

These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.




Annual

123.2
139.2
121.1
118 .7
109.5
110.9
117.2
104.6
94.6
101.1
90.4
91.4
95.6
96.9
96,4
96.7
99.7
100.2
100.1
104.5
102.0
96.0
103.0
114.3
113.7
106.7
111.5
120.9
126.1
126.6
120.6
119.5
117.5

68.5
69.2
72.5
74.1
71.9
69.8
73.5
83.1
80.1
79.2
77.9
84 . 3

81.2
85.6
86.7
92.4
96.6
101.1
98.5
100. 5
100.9
94.8
8 7.6
94 .4
97.7
94.6
81.6
94.1
96.4
101.0
100.2
96.1
94.5
97.9

69.6
67.7
73,2
74.2
72.8
67.6
76,5
82.6
79.2
76.2
81.7
83.9
79.9
87.5
88 .5
92.8
96.7
102.7
98.8
101.0
100.6
92.1
88 .1
94 .8
99,4
94.1
81.3
95.2
95.7
98.1
99.3
93,9
96.3
96.7

68.5
68.3
71.2
72.7
72.6
70 .3
72.7
81.8
80.1
70 .5
77.3
84 .8
81.7
84 .6
87.7
91.7
96.1
101.1
100.1
100.0
100.5
95.8
88.2
93.9
97.6
96.1
85.2
91.3
96.6
99.0
98.6
96.1
94.5
97.9

AVERAGE FOR I'ERIOD

9 4 0 , RATIO, COINCIDENT COMPOSITE INDEX TO LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEX
(1967=100)
1948. . .
1949, . .
1950.. .
1951...
1952.. .
1953,..
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
1959. ..
1960. . .
1961. . .
1962...
1963...
1964 . ..
1965.. .
1966..,
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969. . .
1970. ..
1971. ..
1972.. .
1973...
1974. ..
1975. ..
1976. ..
1977.
. .
1978.. .
1979...
1980. ..
1981. . .
1982.
. .

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

68 .1
69 .8
72 .8
74 .4
71 .8
70 .3
73 .4
82 .9
80 .2
79 .3
77 .8
84 .1
81 .5
85 .8
86 .8
92 .5
96 .6
101 .0
98 .1
100 .5
100 .7
94 .9

69.5
67.7

III Q

61.5
62.0
65.6
62.0
64.3
65.2
65.2
70.7
67.5
67.5
69.1
74.0
73.3
77.1
81.6
86.8
91.1
95.8
94.5
101.2
104.5
100.3
101.9
111.3
119.8
122.3
115.6
117.6
123.7
131.7
131.2
130.4
122.1
123.3

AVERAGE
115.1
135.3
120.5
120.9
108,6
112.1
115.8
105.5
94.3
100.9
88.6
91.2
97,1
96.5
96.7
94.8
100.0
100.6
100.2
105.0
101.6
103^6
115.9
114.5
105.5
111.8
120.2
126.1
127.8
119.5
121.2
115.6

118.9
131.3
119.7
120.1
106.2
114.0
114.1
104.2
91.7
103.8
89.4
89.1
99.2
96.4
94.6
97.7
100.2
99.3
102.4
105.1
100.5
93.8
104 .7
117.2
115.1
102.1
113.6
122.2
125.9
126.7
118.7
121.0
.114 .9

119.8
136.0
116.8
119 .6
103.9
115.7
114.8
105.3
89.3
101.9
94.3
87.0
99.2
95.4
95.0
98. 8
100.8
99.3
103.7
104.4
100.2
96.9
105.9
118.8
113.4
97.3
114.2
123.2
126.2
126.9
119.0
118.8
1.13.3

122.4
123.7
131.8
115.9
119.7
104.6
118.6
112.8
104.4
90.1
105.8
9 4.1
87.8
98.5
96.0
95.7
98.2
101.4
99.3
103.3
104.1
96.4
99.9
109.9
118.3
112.2
95.9
118.2
124.4
123.9
125.8
116.9
122.1

119.1
132.5
126.6
114.0
115.5
107.6
122.2
107.8
101.6
94.3
106.4
90.4
91.9
98.3
97.1
96.4
98.2
100.7
98.8
103.7
102.7
96.8
102.8
Lll.l
L16 .0
L10.0
L01.8
120.9
25.8
27.3
23.4
L10.7
L21.4

60,6
62.8
62.9
63.0
65.6
63.4
67.5
69.7
67,9
66.4
71.2
71.4
73.7
78.4
83.0
88.3
92.3
96.7
95.1
102.6
106.1
100.9
103.0
112.0
123.8
119.3
111.7
118.2
126.4
132.7
130.8
124.3
122.4
122.0

61.9
61.8
64,4
61.8
64.3
65.2
65.2
69.7
68.2
67.6
68.S
72.6
72.6
76.6
81.6
86.5
90.1
95.0
95.8
100.0
104.1
102.3
101.1
109.8
119.3
122.7
116.3
US.3
123.4
131.1
131.9
129.2
121.5
122.7

FOR PERIOD

120.3
142.4
121.8
114.6
111.8
109.7
118.8
103.1
97.6
101.5
95.7
89.6
95.4
97.3
96.4
97.2
99.4
100.2
99.9
104.7
102.3
96.2
102.8
1.13.2
114.2
108.3
109.4
121.3
126.1
126.9
122.2
117.4
119.2

129.4
117.9
134.2
119.0
120.2
106.2
113.9
114.9
105.0
91.8
102,2
90.8
89.1
98.5
96.1
95.4
97.1
100.3
99.7
102.1
104 .8
100.8
94.9
104.7
117.3
114.3
101.8
113.2
121.9
126.1
127.1
119.1
120.3
114.6

133.5
119.9
133.2
124.8
116.2
1.13.3
109.0
118.6
107,2
98.9
97.0
99.6
90.8
93.4
97.S
96.2
96.6
99.0
100.5
100.0
104.1
102.5
96.1
102.6
112.9
115.7
108.1
105.1
120.6
125.6
126.3
122.6
116.3
119.3

(FEBRUARY 1983)

103

C. Historical Data foir Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar. Apr, May June

July

Aug. Sept.

Oct.

Nov,

Dec.

62.5
62,5
41.7
54.2
45.8
50.0
100.0
20.8
41,7
33.3
66,7
25.0
16.7
79.2
54.2
79,2
53,3
62.5
25.0
33.3
87.5
33.3
50 cO
6S.7
75.0
54.2
12.5
66.7
53,.3
70,3
70.8
US. 7
54.2
25.0

12.5
50.0
12.5
50.0
58.3
33.3
83.3
66.7
58.3
0.0
79.2
33.3
33.3
75.0
62.5
45.8
62.5
66,7
29.2
70.8
66.7
16.7
58.3
75.0
66.7
54.2
16.7
58.3
66.7
58.3
54.2
25.0
66.7
50.0

3 3.3
50.0
41.7
62.5
58. 3
70.8
50.5
37.5
33.3
29.2
4 5.8
66.7
37.5
70.8
41.7
62.5
58.3
83.3
41.7
87.5
62.5
41 .7
75.0
83.3
66.7
lfi.7
25.0
50.0
50.0
54.2
50.0
41.7
41.7
29.2

8.3
91.7
45,8
66.7
83.3
33.3
91.7
50.0
45.8
8.3
91.7
25.0
33.3
83.3
87.5
66 .7
83.3
100.0
25.0
91.7
91, .7
18.2
56.3
100,0
91,7
25.0
0.0
9], .7
41.7
66,7
58.3
20,8
75,0
8.3

8.3
100.0
16.7
66.7
83.3
41.7
100.0
33.3
25.0
8,3
83.3
25.0
33.3
100.0
79.2
91.7
75.0
83.3
33.3
83.3
91.7
8.3
83.3
91.7
91.7
20.8
8.3
91.7
66.7
58.3
54.2
20.8
58.3
8.3

16.7
100.0
50.0
75.0
58.3
50.0
100.0
29,2
33.3
20.8
91.7
8.3
37.5
95.8
75.0
70.8
62.5
83,3
45.8
70.8
75.0
0.0
100.0
91.7
87.5
16.7
8.3
100.0
66.7
79.2
62.5
8.3
50.0
25.0

75.0

12.5
100.0
50.0
62.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
0.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
0.0

25.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
25,0
100.0
37,5
75.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
100.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0 .0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100 .0
0,0

950. DIFFUSION INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948. . .
1949, ..
1950.. ,
1951., .
1952. . .
1953,, .
1954.,.
1955...
1956...
1957,..
1958.. .
1959...
I960,..
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963. ..
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970. ..
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977.. ,
1978. ..
1979.,.
1980. . ,
1981...
1982...

29.2
83.3
50.0
58.3
50.0
S8.3
11.1
45.8
16.7
7s!o
29.2
62.5
41,7
62.5
66.7
83.3
79,2
62.5
45.8
75.0
13.6
66.7
79.2
75.0
41.7
25.0
83.3
58.3
25.0
66.7
58.3
8,3

70.0
33.3
54.2
50.0
50.0
66.7
50.0
66.7
50.0
50.0
58.3
87.5
8.3
87.5
50.0
66.7
45.8
58.3
66.7
54.2
41.7
20.a
16.7
66.7
79.2
41.7
41.7
41.7
66.7
66.7
75.0
79.2
33.3
58.3

20.0
37.5
83.3
54.2
54.2
50.0
75.0
87.
25,
37,5
29.2
75.0
37.5
58.3
87.5
66.7
58.3
70.8
66.7
41.7
58.3
41.7
18.2
66.7
79.2
75.0
41.7
33.3
58.3
75.0
62.5
41.7
25.0
33.3

950.

1948..
1949. .
1950..
1951. .
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
19 5 8 . .
1959..
I960..
1961. .
1962.,
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967. .
1968. .
1969..
1970..
1971. .
1972..
1973. .
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977,.
1978..
1979..
1980. .
1981..
1982..

?A\

)
95. f 3
41. 1
58. 3
54. 2
58. i
q\ , 7
58. 3
12. >
33. 3
91. 1
29. 2
54. I
66. 7
7S.( D
83. I
62. i
83. 3
33. 3
70. 3
75. 3
8. 3
100. )
1O0. 3
75. 3
16. 7
33. 3
83. 3
91. 7
83. 3
13, }
H. 3
75. )

30.0
58.3
75.0
29.2
70.8
25.0
83.3
50.0
16.7
58.3
83.3
62.5
54.2
79.2
16.7
66.7
83.3
75.0
12.5
66.7
54.2
29,2
75.0
50.0
33.3
50,0
25.0
8 3,3
54.2
62.5
41.7
45.8
25.0
41.7

54.2
41,7
58.3
16.7
91.7
16.7
91.7
62.5
33.3
66.7
87.5
37.5
62.5
79.2
25.0
45.8
45.8
37.5
20.8
79.2
66.7
37.5
58.3
41.7
75.0
33.3
25.0
83.3
62.5
83.3
50.0
25.0
50.0
25.0

37.5
75.0
75.0
25.0
50.0
41.7
79.2
62.5
41.7
33.3
91.7
29.2
54.2
66.7
87.5
45.8
70.8
41.7
25.0
75.0
66.7
25.0
54.2
50.0
58.3
41.7
45,8
83.3
66.7
25.0
29.2
29.2
79.2
33.3

8.3
75.0
66.7
45.8
50.
37.5
58.3
54.2
37.5
41.7
75.0
58.3
33.3
83.3
79.2
50.0
75.0
50.0
33.3
100.0
45.8
37.5
41,7
50.0
79.2
20.8
12.5
41.7
50.0
83.3
58.3
16,7
83.3
41.7

16.7
91.7
41.7
66.7
75.0
12.5
79.2
54.2
41.7
37.5
91.7
41.7
66.7
50.0
75.0
83.3
75.0
50.0
16.7
58.3
87.5
58.3
70.8
66.7
70.8
41.7
25.0
66.7
50.0
54.2
58. 3
58. 3
91 7
8.3

AVERAGK FOR

33.3
73.6
51.4
54.2
55,6
61.1
75.6
40.3
34.7
48.6
79.2
25.0
69.4
59.7
65.3
56.9
70.8
70.9
52.8
48 .6
45,8
16.2
66.7
79.2
63.9
41.7
33.3
69.4
66.7
54.2
62.5
38.9
33.3

49.7
41.7
73.6
29.2
63.9
29,2
86.1
52.8
36.1
50.0
73.6
54.2
58.3
80.6
30.6
59.7
72.2
52.8
26.4
65.3
51.4
44.5
52.8
50.0
56.9
41.7
25.0
87.5
61.1
66.7
48.6
33.3
29.2
55.6

22.2
98.6
37.5
61.1
37.5
68.1
85.6
36.1
11.1
54.2
86.1
29.2
79.2
43.1
83.3
83.3
63.9
65.3
44.4
61.1
48.6
16.7
93.1
91.7
69.4
16.7
50.0
90.3
88.9
84.7
30.5
13.9
62.5

36.7
58.3
84.7
19.5
80.6
13.9
83.3
82.0
23.6
27.8
97.2
50.0
30.6
94.5
38.9
80.6
83.3
45.8
25.0
80.6
63.9
33.3
25,5
68.1
83.3
2fi.4
15.3
97.2
72.2
70.8
62.5
22.2
30.5
45.8

8.3
75.0
66.7
75.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
54.2
62.5
4.2
91.7
41.7
62.5
70.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
100.0
66.7
66.7
91.7
45.8
79.2
91.7
91.7
45.8
16.7
100.0
95.8
75.0
75.0
45.8
B7.5

75,0
20.8
100.0
54.2
54.2
62.5
50.0
91.7
66.7
33.3
58.3
100.0
41.7
87.5
70.8
91.7
91.7
91.7
83.3
75.0
91.7
75.0
2*3.2
87.5
91.7
66.7
66.7
79.2
83.3
95.8
79.2
5U.3
12.5
66.7

DIFFUSION INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
• (PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)

14.3
16,7
100.0
25.0
66.7
25.0
79.2
81.8
25.0
12.5
79.2
83.3
16.7
91.7
33.3
83,3
83.3
58.3
45.8
58.3
50.0
25.0
25.0
79,2
83.3
75.0
25.0
66.7
87,5
83.3
83.3
33.3
16.7
58.3

14.3
25.0
100.0
45.8
58.3
33.3
66.7
83.3
25.0
8.3
50.0
83.3
41.7
91,7
29.2
91,7
83.3
70.8
66.7
41.7
62.5
45.8
16.7
100.0
91.7
58.3
8.3
50.0
100.0
91.7
87.5
25.0
1(5.7
54.2

65.0
25.0
87-5
41.7
29.2
45.8
83,3
45.8
58,3
2$ g 0
50,0
(52,5
58.3
83,3
50.0
66.7
87.5
45.8
4 5.9
50.0
33.3
66.7
25.0
r>8.3
6 2.5
41.7
25.0
95.8
66 . 7
:S4,2
!>4.2
29.2
12.5
100,0

40.0
25.0
95.3
16.7
75.9
16.7
91.7
91.7
25.0
25.0
91.7
75,0
16.7
91.7
50.0
91.7
83.3
41.7
37.5
66.7
66.7
33.3
18.2
70.8
8 3.3
4 5.8
29.2
91.7
83.3
75.0
83.3
25.0
8.3
4 5.8

50.0
58.3
83.3
16.7
66.7
16.7
70.8
87.5
33.3
3 3.3
100.0
45.8
33.3
100.0
29.2
75.0
8 3.3
45.8
20.8
83.11
54.2
25.0
25.0
66.7
83.3
16.7
8.3
100.0
66.7
75.0
62.5
16.7
33.3
58.3

20.0
91.7
75.0
25.0
100.0
8.3
87.5
66.7
12.5
25.0
100.0
29,2
41.7
91.7
37.5
75.0
83.3
50.0
16.7
91.7
70.8
41.7
33.3
66.7
83.3
16.7
8.3
100.0
66.7
62.S
41.7
2S.0
50.0
33,3

30.0
83.3
75.0
25.0
75.0
8.3
91.7
58.3
8.3
25.0
100.0
25.0
41.7
91,7
54.2
83.3
66.7
75.0
0.0
100.0
87.5
8.3
33.3
50.0
87.5
20.8
8.3
91.7
54.2
75.0
41.7
25.0
83.3
8.3

16.7
10O.0
66.7
33.3
83.3
8.3
100.0
66.7
50.0
0.0
100.0
8.3
33.3
91.7
75.0
79.2
70.8
66.7
4.2
100.0
91.7
0.0
33.3
75.0
91.7
20.8
0.0
87.5
62.5
62.5
58.3
16.7
95.8
16.7

8.3
100.0
66.7
41.7
75.0
25.0
100.0
58.3
33.3
0.0
100.0
25.0
33.3
91.7
70.8
70.8
91.7
83.3
8.3
100.0
91.7
8.3
50.0
75.0
91.7
20.8
0.0
83.3
66.7
66.7
41.7
25.0
95.8
8.3

NOTE:

0.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
25,0
100.0
50.0
25.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
6 2.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
75.0
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
100,0
8 7.5
25.0
50.0
100.0
100.0

62.5
0.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
25.0
37.5
87.5
10O.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
7 5.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
12.5
87.5

75.0
25.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
0,0
100.0
62,5
62.5
0.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
81,5
100.0
75.0
62.5
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
75.0

50.0
0.0
100,0
62.5
50,0
75.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
75,0
62.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
73.0
75.6
75.0
75.0
23.0
100,0
100.0
50.0
37,5
62.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.9

o.o

50.0

75.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
62.5
62.5
50,0
100.0
25.0
0.0
75.0
100.0
37,5
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
75.0
87.5
100.0
75.0
87.5
62.5
87.5
0.0
50.0

These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.

104



100.0
37.5
100.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
37.5
100.0

62.5
0.0
100.0
12.5
0.0
62.5
37.5
100.0
0.0
62.5
100.0
37.5
0.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
1O0.0
100.0
75.0
75,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
62.5
87.5
50.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
87.5
50.0
75.0

62.5
100.0
100.0
50.0
lqo.o
0.0
25.0
50.0
100,0
62,5
75.0
0.0
0.0
10O.O
100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
37.5
100.0
37.5
12.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
75,0
25.0

50.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
87.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
87.5
37.5
87,5
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
37.5

20,9
80.6
61 , 1
,
45.8
50.3
30.6
72 = 2
57.0
40.3
37 ,,5
86., \
4 3., 1
51,4
66,7
80,6
59.7
73,6
47.2
25.0
77.8
66.7
40.3
55.6
55.fi
69.4
34,7
27.8
63.9
55.6
54.2
48.6
34.7
84.7
27.3

36.1
54.2
32.0
55.6
54 .1
51.4
79.3
41.7
44.4
20.8
63.9
41.7
29.2
75.0
52.8
62.5
5(J ,7
70.8
32.0
63.9
72.2
30.6
61.1
75.0
69.5
41.7
18.1
58.3
58.3
61.1
58.3
27.8
54.2
34.7

52.1
60,1
4 5.*
57..:
41. 1
74, t
56.it
40.3
3'S.J)
sa.i
S4. >
41.13
7 2.'»
55.;*
61.:<
«!>,*»
60.4
IB. 6
64.'}
•ifl.7
40.3
46.4
61. H
6H. H
4 S.'»
M.",
<> 0 , H
61 .'.,
inV. ,2

SI/'
:»7.a

AVERAGE FOR PERI Oil

DIFFUSION INDEX OP 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR COMPONENTS
{PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955. . .
1956. . .
1957...
1958. . .
1959. . .
I960...
1961.. .
1962.. .
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965...
1966., .
1967. . .
1968. . .
1969.,.
1970. . .
1971. . .
1972. . .
1973. . ,
1974.. .
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980,. .
1981. . .
1982...

Annual

I Q

18.3
94.4
69.S
33.1
77.8
13.9
97*2

eia
30, 5
8,3
100,0
19 4 4
36 a
91,7
6fi,7
77,8
76,4
75,0
4,2
100,0
90«3
5.5
38 o 9
66,7
90 „ 3
20,8
?.»n
87,,5
61.1
68 ,,1
47,2
22.2
91.6
11.1

11.1
97.2
37.5
69.5
75.0
41.7
97.2
37.5
34.7
12 ,5
88.9
19.4
34.7
93.0
80.6
76,4
73.6
88.9
34.7
81.9
86,1
8.3
80.5
94,5
90.3
20.8
5.5
94.5
58.4
68.1
58.3
16.6
61.1
13.9

??.,*•
7 3. (*
26."
ft 6 .' i
3 1 . 'A
14.M
85.1
43. V
32. fc
89. ^
•i7.:-~»
19.)')
79. ?,
68.4
Tk. ?>
76.7
75.4
24 . I
40.4
34.4
10.1
82.:70.S
7 4 . il
63. ?
49.2
33.2-

IOD
AVERAGK FOR PE.

e.o

75.0
87.5
87.5
25.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
87.5
50.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
0.0
62,5
100.0
100.0
37.5
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
0.0

58..1
66,7
83.3
29.2
66.,?
20.fi
54.
83.3
66.7
41.7
91.7
20.8
8.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
91.7
87. S
83.3
83.3
79.2
95.8
54.2
58.1
87,5
75.0
33.3
91.7
75.1
91.7
83.3
6 2.[5
75.0

37.5
S8.3
7 5.0
7 5.0
79.2
16.7
100.0
91.7
87.5
0.0
87.5
75.0
16.7
100.0
15.0
75.0
70,8
100.0
79.2
79.2
91.7
54.2
33.3
8 7.5
100.0
75.0
12.5
83.3
83.3
100.0
100.0
70.8
91.7
0.0

83.3
^6.2
6 a. a
•iO.Q
57.3
•11.7
68.8
34.4
60.4
71,9
27 . I
H3.3
76.0
84.4
85.4
92.7
H6.5
76.0
82.3
7 9.2
40,6
78.1
92.7
77.1
'J9.fi
67.7
H5.4
95. fl
84.4
66. "
I

(FEBRUARY I 9 & )

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Nov.

Dec.

0.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
0.0

0.0
75.0
75,0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0

0.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
75,0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100 .0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100 .0
25.0
100.0
0.0

Oct.

I Q | II Q

951. DIFFUSION INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-HONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949. ..
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954,,.
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960..,
1961. ..
1962..,
1963...
1964...
1965,..
1966. ..
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972,..
1973...
1974...
1975. . .
1976...
1977...
1978, ..
1979.,.
1980...
1981...
1982...

100.0

o.o

100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100. 0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
25.0
100.0

0.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0

100.0
62.5
62.5
0 .0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0

100.0
0.0
100.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
0.0
100.0

100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
25.0
62.5
37.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
75.0

100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
62.5
25.0
100.0
62.5
25.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
75.0

100.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0
62,5
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
100 .0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
50 .0

100.0
0.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
12.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
12.5
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0

75.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
25.0

50.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100 .0
100.0
100.0
87,5
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.Q
100.0
50.0
100.0
12.5

IV Q

III Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.0
100.0
83.3
87.5
100.0
8.3
100.0
70.8
54.2
0.0
100.0
83.3
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
87.5
8.3
100.0

100.0
16.7
100.0
50.0
83.3
54.2
45.8
100.0
62.5
37.5
70.fl
7 5.0
33,3
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
91.7
100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
83.3
54.2
91.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
66.7

58.3
38.9
41.7
69.4
69.5
72.2
22.2
58.3
83.3
69.5
16.7
69.4
80.6
30.6
83.3
69.4
66.6
72.2
83.3
50.0
58.3
83.3
55.6
30.6
61.1
77.8
63,9
0.0
52.8
77.8
72.2
66.7
44.4
63.9

88.9
33.3
50.0
77.8
58.3
83.3
2.8
61.1
94.4
91.7
0.0
94.4
86.1
25.0
91.7
63.9
69.4
69.4
86.1
52.8
77.8
91.7
33.3
27.8
66.7
77.8
72.2
0.0
58.3
83.3
66.7
83.3
30.5
61.1

75.0
33.3
100.0
62.5
100.0
4.2
83.3
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
37.5
8.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100,0
95.8
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
66.7
83.3
29.2

0.0

91.7
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0

100.0
91.7
100.0
0.0

100.0
100.0
6.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
100.0
50.0
58.3
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.0

100,0
10O.0
100.0
100.0
45.8
100.0
0.0

35]4
93.8
74.0
92.7
39.6
59.4
97.9
83.3
26.0
67.7
78.1
33.3
91.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
95.8
91.7
100.0
86.5
34.4
100.0
100,0
83.3
28.1
72.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
68.8
47.9
49.0

952. DIFFUSION INDEX OF ( LAGGING INDICATOR COMPONENTS

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(PERCF.NT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
1953.. .
1954...
1955...
1956. ..
1957. ..
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968. . .
1969.. .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. ..
1980...
1981. ..
1982...

.
58.3
41.7
66,7
58.3
58.3
16.7
50.0
91.7
66.7
25.0
33.3
41.7
41.7
83.3
33.3
25.0
75.0
66.7
50.0
75.0
75.0
91.7
8.3
8.3
83.3
50,0
41,7
33.3
33.3
83.3
83.3
50.0
8.3

75.0
75.0
41.7
66.7
41.7
58.3
25.0
58.3
75.0
16.7
33.3
58.3
91.7
50.0
33.3
41.7
91.7
58.3
75.0
58.3
58.3
83.3
33.3
33.3
41.7
91.7
66.7
16.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
58.3
75.0
25.0

66 .7
41.7
8.3
75.0
91.7
58.3

41.7
58.3
83.3
75.0
41.7
58.3
91.7
25.0
58.3
50.0
7 5.0
58,3
66.7
58.3
50.0
66.7
50.0
16.7
66.7
41.7
0.0
33.3
33.3
41.7
75.0
41.7
66.7
41.7

58.3
33,3
41.7
58.3
41.7
83.3
16.7
41.7
66.7
91.7
41.7
58.3
66.7
41.7
83.3
50.0
58.3
66.7
100.0
50.0
83.3
83.3
50.0
16.7
50.0
100.0
58.3
0.0
41.7
66.7
58.3
91.7
50.0
83.3

58.3
58.3
41.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
25.0
58.3
100.0
75.0
0.0
75.0
91.7
25.0
75.0
75.0
58.3
75.0
75.0
50.0
41.7
83.3
41.7
58.3
8 3.3
50.0
83.3
0.0
58.3
83.3
83.3
41,7
50.0
66.7

58.3
25.0
41.7
75.0
91 .7
66.7
25.0
75.0
83.3
41.7
8.3
75.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
83.3
83.3
75.0
75.0
50.0
50.0
83.3
75.0
16.7
50.0
83.3
50.0
0.0
58.3
83.3
75.0
66.7
33.3
41.7

91.7
41.7
58.3
66.7
58.3
41.7
33.3
58.3
75.0
75.0
25.0
91.7
41.7
25.0
66.7
58.3
50.0
50.0
75.0
66.7
58.3
41.7
16.7
66.7

75.0
25.0
75.0
58.3
25.0
58.3
33.3
100.0
33.3
58.3
8.3
91.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
75.0
83.3
75.0
58.3
25.0
58,3
58.3
58.3
83.3

66.7
25.0
91.7
66.7
50.0
66.7
25.0
83.3
58.3
83.3
58.3
66.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
66.7
83.3
58.3
50.0
75.0
66 .7
66.7
8.3
41.7

50.0
83.3
66.7
58.3
41.7
50.0
41. 7
83. 3
58. 3
41. 7
41. 1
83.3
58,3
50.0
66.7
58.3
75.0
58.3
50.0
58.3
50.0
75.0
50.0
33.3

75.0
25.0
75,0
83.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
41.7
66,7
75,0
41.7
58.3
91.7
25.0
58.3
75.0
33.3
75.0
66,7
16.7
33.3

25.0
41.7
50.0
100.0
75.0
58.3
41.7
58 . 3
41 .7
66.7
91.7
33.3
50.0
66.7
75.0
58.3
41 .7
58.3
75.0
58.3
83.3
66.7
0.0
33.3

58.3
50.0
50.0
50.0
41.7
66.7
58.3,
16.7
66.7

58.3
83.3
16,7
75.0
83.3
66.7
66.7
16.7
50.0

58.3
66.7
16.7
66.7
75.0
66.7
75.0
33.3
83,3

66.7
33.3
58. 3
58. 3
66. 7
16. 7
66. 7
16 .7
75.0

50.0
66.7
16.7
33.3
83.3
91.7
41.7
33.3
66.7

75.0
50.0
50.0
33.3
75.0
66 .7
33.3
33.3
75.0

58.3
30.6
69.5
63.9
58.3
27.8
55.5
83.3
52.8
33.3
50.0
75.0
38.9
58.3
41.7
63,9
63.9
69.5
55.5
61.1
75.0
58.3
19.4
38.9
72.2
38.9
30.6
38.9
4 4.4
75,0
61.1
63.9
25.0

100.0
25.0
83.3
83.3
58.3
58.3
25.0
100.0
50.0
66.7
33.3
83.3
50.0
58.3
66.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
83.3
33.3
100.0
75.0
8.3
16.7
66.7
83.3
50.0
0.0
66.7
100.0
91.7
66.7
33.3
66.7

75.0
41.7
83.3
83.3
41 .7
58.3
41.7
83.3
66.7
50.0
50.0
66.7
50.0
58.3
65.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
58.3
50.0
91.7
75.0
0.0
16.7
75.0
83.3
50.0
0.0
66.7
100.0
100.0
66.7
33.3
66.7

75 .0
41 .7
83.3
83.3
41 .7
50.0
41.7
100.0
58.3
50 .0
66.7
75.0
33.3
58.3
41 .7
83.3
58.3
83.3
66.7
33.3
91 .7
50.0
0.0
16.7
66.7
66.7
33.3
16.7
50.0
100.0
50.0
50 .0
16.7
50.0

47.2
41.7
83.3
80.5
86.1
22.2
44.5
100.0
83.3
22.2
63.9
77.8
33.3
86.1
47.2
63.9
63.9
97.2
61.1
75.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
27.8
91.7
83.3
22.2
30.6
58.3
69.5
86.1
61.1
38.9

77.8
30.6
75. 0
63.9
44.4
55.6
30.5
80.5
55,5
72.2
30.5
83.4
47.2
47.2
66.7
66.7
72.2
61.1
61.1
55.6
61.1
55.6
27.8
63.9
4. ,7
1
58.3
66.7
27.8
63.9
66.7
66.7
66.7
22.2
66.7

50.0
50.0
63.9
80.5
58.3
55.5
47.2
75.0
61.1
61.1
58.4
61.1
61.1
52.8
66.7
69.4
47.2
58.3
66.7
50.0
69,4
69.5
22.2
33.3

.

44.4
52.8
70.8
59.0
60.4
32.0
67.3
70.8
63.9
34.7
66.0
66.0
42.4
68.8
61.8
62.5
63.9
70.1
52.8
62.5
70.8
41.0
36.8
47.9
68.0
54.9
25.0
49.3
66.0
68.1
60.4
39.6
57.0

63^9
50.0
41.7
41.6
75.0
58.4
47.2
27.8
72.2

952. DIFFUSION INDEX OF (> LAGGING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
AVE *AGE FOR

(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)
1949.,.
1950...
1951.. .
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956. ..
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
1960...
1961. ..
1962...
1963...
1964
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970 ...
1971. ..
1972. ..
1973...
1974. .,
1975...
1976. . .
1977.. .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
NOTE:

58.3
41.7
83.3
75.0
83.3
33.3
41.7
100.0
91.7
13.3
58.3
66.7
50.0
75.0
41.7
75.0
58.3
91.7
66.7
58.3
100.0
50 .0
0,0
33.3
«3.3
100.0
13.3
16.7
50.0
66.7
100.0
66.7
16.7

41.7
41.7
83.3
83.3
91.7
33.3
41.7
100.0
83.3
33.3
66.7
75.0
25.0
91.7
58.3
58.3
58.3
100.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
16,7
91.7
83.3
33.3
41 .7
50.0
66.7
75.0
66.7
66.7

41.7
41.7
83.3
83.3
83.3
0.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
0.0
66.7
91.7
25.0
91.7
41.7
58.3
75.0
100.0
66.7
91.7
100.0
50.0
0.0
33.3
100.0
66.7
0.0
33.3
75.0
7 5,0
83.3
50.0
33.3

41.7
41.7
83.3
58.3
83.3
8.3
41.7
100.0
75.0
0.0
83.3
91.7
25.0
91.7
41.7
58.3
58.3
83.3
66.7
66.7
100.0
33.3
16.7
66.7
83.3
66.7
0.0
50.0
75.0
66.7
66.7
33.3
66.7

33.3
41.7
75.0
58.3
83.3
0.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
66.7
75.0
75.0
91.7
41.7
66.7
91.7
33.3
16.7
66,7
66.7
66.7
0.0
58.3
75.0
66.7
83.3
33.3
50.0

These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.




25.0
66.7
75.0
58.3
83.3
0.0
66.7
83.3
100.0
0.0
100.0
83.3
25 .0
91.7
83.3
75,0
75.0
83.3
50.0
100.0
83.3

41.7
83.3
83.3
41.7
66.7
8.3
91.7
83.3
83.3
16.7
100.0
66.7
25.0
83.3
83.3
75.0
58.3
66."

25.0
100,0
83.3
41.7
66.7
8.3
91.7
83.3
75.0
33.3
100.0
66.7
25.0
66.7
91.7
58.3
58.3

58 .
66.'
100 .(
)

83.3
33.3
66.7
83.3

33.3
100.0
83.
41 .
75 .(
8.
91.
75.
66.
33.
100.0
58 .3
41.7
75.0
75.0
58.3
75.0
83.3
33.3
83.3
83.3

50.0
66. 7
83.3
83.3
0.0
66 .7
100 .0
66.7
100.0
25.0
66.7

58. J
66.'
66.'
66. 7
16. 7
66 ."
1
91.' ?
83..
83.3
16.7
83.3

50,0
50.0
91,7
58.3
16.7
33.3
75.0
83.3
83.3
0.0
66.7

50.0
50.0
100.0
50 .0
33.3
50.0
83.3
83.3
66.7
16 .7
66 .7

91.7
33.3
94.4
83.3
41 .7
69.5
8.3
91.7
80.5
75.0
27.8
1OO.0
63.9
30. 6
75.0
83.3
63.9
63.9
77.8
41.6
72.2
88.9
30.6
52.8
55.6
86.1
58.3
22.2
50.0
8 3.3
83.3
77.8
11.1
72.2

PERIOD
83.3
36.1
83.3
83.3
47.2
55.5
36.1
94.4
58.3
55.6
50.0
75.0
44.4
58.3
58.4
77.8
63.9
72.2
69.4
38.9
94.5
66.7
2.8
16.7
69.5
77.8
44.4
5.6

61.1
100,0
80.6
61.1
27.8
61.1

37.5
67.4
81.9
56.9
73.6
17.4
72.9
83.3
76.4
25.0
83.3
68.1
36.8
77.8
68.1
65.3
67.4
82.6
48.6
79.9
86.8
29.2
24.3
54.9
83.3
64.6
12.5
50.0
81.2
75.0
77.1
32.6
58.4

(FEBRUARY 1983)

105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

Previously Published Composite Index of 12 Leading Indicators
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

106.9
124.5
131.9
139.1
142.6
134.7
135.2
125.5
135.6

106.4
125.7
133.0
140.3
142.3
134.1
134.2
125.0

107.1
126.4
135.6
140.3
143.2
131.5
135.8
124.8

I Apr.
109.4
126.3
136.0
141.5
140.3
126.2
137.3
125.7

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

111.9
128.0
135.8
141.8
141.4
123.0
136.0
126.5

115.5
129.7
135.5
142.5
141.6
123.9
135.2
127.1

118.3
130.2
135.0
141.2
141.2
128,1
134.8
129.1

119.2
129.9
136.9
142.0
140.1
130.7
134.1
128.8

119.9
130.1
138.0
142.9
140.1
134.4
130.7
130.2

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

120.5
129.9
139.1
143.6
137.8
135.0
128.3
130.7

|

121.2
131.8
139.4
142.8
135.6
136.5
128.2
130.8

121.7
132.5
140.2
143.0
135.2
136.4
127.1
131.8

Previously Published Composite Index of 4 Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

Jan.
115.4
120.3
126.3
134.0
144.8
146.1
142.0
134.1
129.0

Mar.
113.7
121.6
127.6
135.0
144.9
145.2
142.5
135.5

112.3
122.4
129.7
136.9
146.6
143.5
142.4
134.9

Apr.
112.6
123.3
130.0
139.3
144.1
140.5
142.2
133.8

May

June

113.4
123.4
130.6
139.5
145.6
138.0
142.2
134.6

114,2
123.6
131.3
140.1
145.0
136.7
142.7
133.0

July

Aug.

115.1
124.0
131.7
140.5
145.4
136.5
142.8
132.2

116.7
124.3
131.9
141.4
145.0
136.7
142.5
131.2

Sept.

|

Oct.

|

117.5
124.3
132.6
141.4
144.9
138.1
141.8
130.4

Nov.

j

Dec.

118.4
125.6
134.7
144.3
145.0
140.8
138.5
128.5

117.9
124.1
133.8
143.0
145.1
139.7
139.9
128.3

118.9
127.1
135.7
145.5
145.2
141.3
136.5
128.2

Nov.

Dec.

120.6
120.2
131.1
152.7
179.1
175.6
184.9
164.7

120.1
119.9
131.7
155.2
177.9
191.0
181.7
162.5

Previously Published Composite Index of 6 Lagging Indicators
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

140.6
119.5
120.2
134.1
157.4
178.4
189.1
182.5
159.9

135.9
119.0
121.0
135.9
158.5
180.8
186.5
184.1

132,4
118.7
121.7
137.2
158.4
190.0
181.2
183.8

129.0
118.7
122.3
137.8
161.8
196.2
179.4
184.5

106



May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

126.9
119.2
123.1
140.0
162.5
183.5
189.6
184.1

122.4
120.1
125.0
142.0
163.6
168.5
191.4
183.8

122.7
120.4
125.2
143.5
164.8
163.6
192.6
182.5

122.4
120.0
126.5
144.5
166.4
161.7
193.5
175.2

122.1
121.1
127.8
146.4
170.6
164.2
194.1
172.4

|

Oct.
122.7
120.7
129.4
148.1
175.9
168.5
189.5
168.4

j

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index

Basic data
Series t i t l e
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1.
Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
. .
5. Average weekly i n i t i a l c l a i m s , State
unemployment insurance 1 (thousands)
8. New orders f o r consumer goods and materials
in 1972 d o l l a r s ( b i l l i o n d o l l a r s )
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower d e l i v e r i e s (percent)
12.
Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders f o r plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars ( b i l l i o n dollars)
29.
N w building permits, private housing
e
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 d o l . , smoothed2 (ann. rate, b i l . do!.) .
99.
Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent) . .
19.
Stock prices, 500 c m o stocks
o mn
(index* 1941-43=10)
106.
Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(bil1 ion dollars)
. .
111. Change in credit—business and consumer
borrowing (annual rate, percent).
910.
Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
Employees on n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l p a y r o l l s
(thousands)
.
.
. . . . .
51.
Personal income less t r a n s f e r s i n 1972
d o l l a r s (annual r a t e , b i l l i o n d o l l a r s ) . . . .
47.
Industrial production, t o t a l
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales i n 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920.
Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index' 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91.
Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
. . . . . . .
. . . .
. .
77. R a t i o , c o n s t a n t - d o l l a r inventories to s a l e s ,
manufacturing and trade ( r a t i o )
62.
Labor cost per u n i t of o u t p u t , manufacturing-actual data as a percent o f trend (percent) .
109. Average prime r a t e charged by banks
(percent)
101.
Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding
in 1972 d o l l a r s ( m i l l i o n d o l l a r s )
95. Ratio, consumer installment c r e d i t to
personal income (percent)
930. Composite index of 6 lagging i n d i c a t o r s 3
(index: 1967=100)
. .

Nov.
1982

Oct.
1982

Oct.
to
Nov.
1982

Jan.
1983

Dec.
1982

33 .8

38 . 9

38 . 9

r651

r616

p39.7
~>
i

Nov.
to
Dec.
1982

Dec.
to
Jan.
1983

. • / .

0 .08

0 .00

0 .76

r531

507

0.15

0.41

0.15

^J

r27.71

r28.11

28.21

p31.28

0.07

0.02

0.61

44

40

38

41

- 0 .16

- 0 .08

0.14

111.6

113.0

111.1

pll3.1

0 .17

-0.24

0 . 30

rll.99

rll.40

rl3.00

pll.75

-0.11

94 .7

96.3

105.4

119.4

0.05

r-5.94

r-13.46

p-21.18

NA

-0.42

-0.43

-0.40

-0.48

-0.50

-0.16

-0.03

-0.0.1

132.66

138.10

139.37

144.27

0.25

0 .06

0.26

r822.0

r828.5

r836.8

p856.0

0.25

0.32

0.87

-4.5

-5.4

p-5.5

NA

-0.05

-0.01

NA

139.6

140.1

141.2

pl46 .3

0.36

0.79

3.61

r88,877

r88,750

r88,535

p88,874

-0.12

-0.20

0.41

r l ,056.5

rl,062.3

rl,066.1

pi,067.5

0.27

0.18

0.08

rl35.7

134.8

rl35.0

pl36.2

-0.18

0.04

0.32

rl48,162

rl50,261

pl49,528

NA

0.31

-0.11

NA

132.2

132.3

132.0

pl32.8

0 .08

-0.23

0 .61

18.0

19.4

-0.08

-0.29

rl.75

pi.75

NA

-0.53

0.00

99.3

98.9

97 .9

p97.4

-0.15

-0.37

-0.27

12.52

11.85

11.50

11.00

-0.47

-0.25

-0.52

109,093

106,412

104,521

plO5,873

-0.65

-0.47

0.50

12.79

rl2.79

pl2.84

NA

0.00

0.19

-1.83

-1.18

17.1
r l .79

120.5

17 . 3

118 .3

116.9

pll5.7

0.29
0 .27

-0.26
0 .44
NA
0.16

-0.79
NA

NA
-1.03

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
(pp. 108-109) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
Hhis series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement,
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
2
This
3




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Table 1. Scores, Standardization Factors, and Weights for Composite Index Components
Revised index

Previous index
Series
Score

LEADING INDEX
1- Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance'4
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars
32, *Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries
12. Net business formation
;
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 197£ dollars . . . .
29. New building permits, private housing units . . . .
;
,.
36. *Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed3
5
92. *Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed
..
99. *Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed5 . .j
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
I
,.
104. *Change in total liquid assets, smoothed5
;
, .
.
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars . ,
]
111. *Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer i borrowing . . . .

1

Standardization
factor2

Weight

3

Score

l

Standardization
factor2

Weight3

78
80
76
69
73
71
72
78
68

0.457
5.543
2.880
3.863
.999
6.115
4.831
2.440
.321

1.027
1.067
1.001
.909
.962
.935
.948
1.027
.896

75
77
7,2
80
72
70
73
73

2.530

'si

2.6i6

85

.324
2.633

.892
1.149

83
81

.051
.414

1.067
1.093
1.067

*69
71

.417
2.627

.932
.959

90
88
89
79

.330
.517
.937
1.048

1.040
1.017
1.029
.913

87
B?
34
74

.321
.502
.924
1.021

1.064
1.003
1.028
.905

87
81

3.655
.446

1.067
.994

36

3.587

1.098

.016

.894

*76

.633

.933

82
81

.110
.960

1.006
.994

.557
.376

.868
1.123

.062

1.006

*79
79

.961

'82

.062

1.009
1.009

MARGINAL EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . . . .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
....
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
3. *Layoff rate, manufacturing
....

78
74
80
81

.457
3.885
5.543
.160

.997
.946
1.022
1.035

CAPITAL. INVESTMENT COMMITMENTS
12. Net business formation
. .
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars
29. New building permits., private housing units . . . .

73
71
72

.999
6.115
4.831

1.014
.986
1.000

72
70
78

.996
6.194
5.064

.982
.955
1.064

76
69
78
68

2.880
3.863
2.440
.321

1.045
.948
1.072
.935

72
80
73

2.818
3.840
2.530

.990
1.100

*66

.324

.907

COINCIDENT INDEX
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls . . . . . . . . .
51, Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars
47. Industrial production, total
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
LAGGING INDEX
91. Average duration of unemployment'4
.
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
. .
77. *Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
.
62. *Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data as a percent
of trend
.
109. *Average prime rate charged by banks
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars . , . .
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars
95. *Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income

INVENTORY INVESTMENT AND PURCHASING
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars
32. *Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries .
36. *Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed3
92. *Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed3
....
99. *Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed5
PROFITABILITY
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . . .
80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj in 1972 dollars
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector . . . .
MONEY AND FINANCIAL FLOWS
104. *Change in total liquid assets, smoothed5
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars .
110. Total private borrowing
111. *Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer borrowing

68
38

467
374
818
840
996
194
064

s

1.014

1.041
.973
1.081
.973
.946
1.054

1.003

81
62
65

2.610
2.497
.207

1.168
.894
,938

85
63
60

2.633
2.210
,209

1.226
.909
.865

83
81
74

.051
.414
3.263

1.046
1.021
.933

73
69

,053
.417

1.028
.972

'71

2.627

1.666

*First differences rather than symmetrical percent changes are computed for this series.
l
Scores for the previous index are based on six business cycles (1948-75); scores for the revised index are based on seven business
cycles (1948-80).,
standardization factors are computed over the period 1948-78 for the previous index and 1948-81 for the revised index.
3
The weight for a given series is the ratio of that series' score to the average score of all series in that index.
''Changes for this series are inverted; i.e., they are multiplied by -1.
^Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
^Revised standardization factor was computed over the period 1966-81.

108



G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Table 2. Index Standardization Factors
Previous index, 1948-78
Average
absolute
change1.

Composite index

Index standardization
factor2

Revised index, 1948-81
Average
absolute
change 1

Index standardization
factor2

0.474

0.556

0.496

0.582

Coincident index

.853

1.000

.852

1.000

Lagging index

.669

.784

.602

.707

Leading index . .

1

The average absolute change is obtained as follows: (a) For each month, a weighted average of the standardized changes of
all components in that index is computed; (b) a long-term average without regard to sign is calculated from these averages.
2
This measure is the ratio of the average absolute change in each index to the average absolute change in the coincident
index.

Table 3. Target Trend Computation
Revised index

Previous index
Series

Specific cycles
(peak to peak)

Monthly
trend1
(percent)

Initial

Terminal

Specific cycles
(peak to peak)

Monthly
trend1
(percent)

Initial

Terminal

COINCIDENT INDEX COMPONENTS
Sep. 48- Oct. 74June 53
Feb. 79

0.178

0.186

Sep. 48- Mar, 80June 53
July 81

Nov. 73Dec. 78

.281

Oct. 48- Jan. 80Aug. 81
June 53

June 74Feb. 79

.334

July 48July 53

.282

Dec. 48- Mar. 79Mar. 53
Feb. 81

41.

Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

51.

Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars

.284

Oct. 48June 53

47.

Industrial production, total

.340

July 48July 53

57.

Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars

.286

Dec. 48- Mar. 74Mar. 53
Dec. 78

TARGET TREND2

,

Mar. 79July 81

.271

.272

l
The total percent change from the initial specific cycle average to the terminal specific cycle average is converted to a
monthly rate by the compound interest formula.
2
The target trend is the simple average of the monthly trends in the four components.

Table 4. Trend Adjustment Factors
Revised index

Previous index
Composite index

Trend in
raw index1
(percent)

Trend adjustment factor2
(percent)

Trend in
raw index1
(percent)

Trend adjustment factor2
(percent)

0.173

+0.099

0.132

+0.139

Coincident index

.436

-.164

.446

-.175

Laggi ng index

.442

-.170

.253

+ .018

Leading index

J
2

..

See table 3 (above) for the method of computing trends.
The trend adjustment factor is the target trend minus the trend in the raw index.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FUNDING GUIDE
Series titles
(Sea complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index}

Accession rote, manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment, inden
Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
-.
New orders, manufacturing, 01
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Df
Priess, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, 01
Sates, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption
Imports of automobiles ant! parts

Balance of payments-See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
,
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserva
Bonds-Sag Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industriel production
Business expenditures, new piant and equipment
Business expenditures, now plant and equipment,, Dl . . .
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans-Soe Bank loans.
Business saving

Canada-Stie International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (8EA)
Manufacturing (F:RB)
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital investment-See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars .•
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Total
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded .
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial leans outstanding, nut change
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfat m business sector
„
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changas
„,
Compensation of employees
„,
Compensation of employees, percent of national
income
Compensation, real averace hourly, all employees,
nonfaim business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfaim business sector, percent changes
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarn economy, percent changes .
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages ond salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction
„

NOTE:

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
umber

Charts

2
604

16
56

Tables

61
92

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date
(*)

8/81
1/83

18
64

61
970
58
974
97!i
971
976
978
977
972
973

24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38

67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76

6/82*
6/82
. 12/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82

34
34
31
48
48
48
48
49
48
48
48

55
616

22
56

65
92

9/82
1/83

50
64

72
112

15,35
32

73
72

2/83
3/82

43
43

93
94

33
33

72
72

1/82
1/82

45
45

14
12
13

13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23

67
67
67
76
72
65
65

6/82
12/82
6/82
6/82
12/81
2/83
3/82

35
24
34
34
44
32
32

295

46

82

11/82

37

83
82
34

20
20
20

64
64
64

12/82
12/82
12/82

25
25
25

97
11
965

24
24
37

66
66
75

V83
1/83
1/83

33
33
33

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

2/83
8/82
8/82 ,

15
37
37

442
90
441
37

51
18
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

4/82 •
3/82
4/82
3/82

20
20
20
20

920
920c
951
940
9
72
112

10
39
36
11
23
115,35
32

29
76
61
970

60

2/83 '

74*'
60
66
73

2/83
2/83
3/82
2/83
3/82

15
15
32
43

11/8T

72

15

43

345

49

87

11/82

56

345c
280

50
45

87
82

11/82
10/82

56
56

64

30,47

70,83

10/82

56

346

49

88

11/82

56

346c

50

88

11/82

56

340

49

87

6/82

15

340c

50

87

6/82

15

341

49

87

7/82

15

341c
348
349

50
50
50

87
88
88

7/82
8/81
8/81

62

53

19

63

9/82

22

15
62

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index}

110



OF CYCLICAL

INDICATORS

(*)

920
920c
940

10
39
11

2/83
11/B1
2/83

930
930c

10
39

2/93
11«

15

914
915
913
917
916
910
910c

11
11
11
11
11
10
39

2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
11/81

15
15
15
15
15
15

29

13,25
23
24

67
66
67

6/82
3/82
9/82

35
32
28

248
87
86
249
89
28

47
25
25
47
25
25

S3
67
67
83
67
67

10/82
9/82
9/82
10/82
9/82
3/82

51
51
51
51
51
35

12,21
22

64
65

8/82
12/82

26
24

113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73

n

5/82
5/82
11/82
2/82

43
43
43
45

320
320c
322
322c
58

49
49,59
49
49
22

84,95
84,95
14
1
84
65

5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82
12/82

59
59
59
59
31

20
10
116

12,23
23
34

8/82
8/82
2/82

32
32
46

112
110
72

32
32
15,35

3/82
11/82
2/83

43
44
43

66
113
95
39
33

35
32
15,35
33
32

5/82
5/82
11 /82
2/82
3/82

43
43
43
45
42

4/02
11/ 32
12/82
7/82

64
53
26

525
564
548
517

15
15*

I
33
12,21

2/82
2/82

45
28

970
965
951
974
363
967

38
37
36
38
36
37

6/82
1/83
2/(13
1/82
7/82
1/82

34
33
15
48
15
36

966

37"

7/82

24'

962
975
952
950
964

1/82
1/H2
2/83
2 /a 3
8/82

18
48
15
15
26

976
978
977
960
972
973
961

1/82
2/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
12/82
1/82
1/82
7/82

48
36
48
49

,

,

CI, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; MIPA, national income and product accounts.

*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK

feries
t! script ions

Tatilos

Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four cDinciders
,
l:our coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers
Six laggers, rate of change
LeEiding indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventary investment and purchasing
Margiral employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
Profitability
'
Twelve leaders
Twelve leaders, rate of change
Consuuction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. .
Expend Mures, plus machinery and equipment sales...
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, as percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential as percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Hcustng starts
Consjmer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consjmer goods and materials, new orders
Consjmer floods, industrial production
Consjmer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Retio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
."
All item:?, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol..
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net ciange
„
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.

Deb1:-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
New orders, defense products
Obligations incurred
Deficit-See Government.
Defletors-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance :
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, retail tiade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, nst, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade . ,
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Disposable personal income-See Income.

Current is-sjii
(p;i:)e numbers)

Series
number

(1977).

48
15

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Earnings-See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments, rate of .change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag. payrolls, 01
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, 01
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, mfg. production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, D l . . ;
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, and money, Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Food-See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Net exports, goods and services, constant do)., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA . . .
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves . . ,

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and servict
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars

Current issue
{page numbers)

Series
number

2
441

16
51

61
89

17
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1

39
17
38
14,17
36
18
51
17
17
12,16
36
16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18,51
12,16

961

36"

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date!
(*)

8/81
4/82
11/82

62
76
62
74
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61
89
89
89
89
62
61
89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62,89
61
77
74

11/82
7/82
1/82
7/82
7/82
3/82
4/82
7/82

3/82
2/82
1/82
8/81
2/83
7/8?
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/82
8/81
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/82
3/82
3/82
3/82
3/82
7/82
7/82

34

72

2/82

94
213
917

33

40
11

72
80
60

1/82
10/82
2/83

311
311c

48
48

84
84

11/82
11/82

667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
255
250
251

57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
44
44
47

93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
82
82
83

8/82
8/82
8/82
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/82
1/83
8/82
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
10/82

33

72

1/82

20

63

8/82

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
9/82
11/82

263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
81
81
83
81
81

11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82

15

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes.
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit . . .
Gross national product
GNP, :onstant dollars
GNP, :onstant dollars, differences
GNP, ;onstant dollars, percent changes..
GNP, :urrent dollars
GNP, :urrent dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

311
311c
68
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
310c
217

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date)
(*)

48
48
30

84
84
70

11/82
11/82
9/82

58
59
39

19,40

63,80

49
49
49
49
49
49
40
25
49
49
49

31
20
48
48
40

80
80
71
63
84
84
80

8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
11/82
11/62
10/82

17
17

61
61

7/82
3/82

19
19

16
12,16

7/82
7/82

15
15

36"

61
61
77
74

7/82

15'

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

3/82
6/82
9/82
10/82

35
35
51
51

310
310c

48
48

84
84

11/82
11/82

49
49

345

49

87

11/82

56

345c
280

50
45
30,47

87
82
70,83

11/82
10/82
10/82

56
56
56

346

49

88

11/82

56

346c
95
286
287
225
224

50
15,35
45
47
40
40

11/82
11/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82

56
43
37
37
22
22
22

39*'
40

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment ..
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, DI
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits .
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

91
6

I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income ..
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Corp, profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income ;
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant d o l . . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Income on foreign investment in the U.S.
Income on U.S. investments abroad . . . . . ;
.
Interest, net
:
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
...:.;...,.
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income, ratio to money supply
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors'income with .IVA and CCA, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year . . , : . : ; . . . ; . ; .
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . . . .
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, 01
Industrial production - See alsn International comparisons.
Business equipment
"
Consumer goods
Durable manufactures
;..'....:.;
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, 01
Total, rate of change
;
Installment debt-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, DI . . ,
Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate

227

40

340

73
82

49

340c
341
341c
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
51
51c
108
282
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23
967
76
75
73
74
47

87

5

6/82

50
87

7/82

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
63

7/82
8/82
8/82
10/82
10/82
10/82

49
50
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
14,19
39
31
45
47
45
47
50
50
19
23
28
37
24
22
20
20
14,20,58
37
39

962
45

6/82

87

12,16
36
18

71"
82
83
82
83
88
88
63
65
69
79
75
67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75

61
74
62

9/82
9/82
9/82

9/82

15
65
65
57
57
55
22
22
22

8/82
10/82

40*
56

10/82
10/82
10/82
8/81
9/82
3/82
1/82

56
57
57
62
62
22
32
36

1/82

36*"

12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82

24
24
24
24
24

7/82
12/82

24'

2/82
1/32
3/82

18
18
18

8/81

NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




11
1

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FUNDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Source;; of
Series," following this indexj

Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yiBlds
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
„
Prime rale charged by banks
,
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
„
„
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada, index
>
Canada, percent changes
France, index
France, jitsrjent charges
Italy, iniitjx
Italy, percent changes
Japan, index
Japan, pe-cent changes
.
United Kingdom, index
United "Ongdo", percent c'langps
United States, index
United States percent d anges
West Germany, Indux
West Germany, percent changes .
...
Industrial production
Canada
France
.
.
.
Italy
Japan . .
OECO, (iiropeancouPti.es
United Kingdom .
United States
West Germany . .
.,
. .
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
J a p a n . . .
United Kingdom
United Status,
West Gimrany. .
.
. .
......
International transactions-See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military .
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and servicas, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
..
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports cf automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and servirxs, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, changg, percent of GNP
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order, nat change
Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated)
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
,
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,
change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investmant commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, corrmercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in—See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total constant dollars
,
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constarr. dol.
Residential, total, constant dollars
Residential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New ordeis, capital goods, nondefense, constant
dollars
New orders, capital goods, nandefense, current
dollars

Current issue
(page numbers}

Ssries
number

Charts

Historical
data

Series
ascriptions

(*)

Tables

283
289

10/82
10/82

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

12/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, DI
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income en foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.

Currant iiisuo
(page numbiifs)

Series
number

Charts

61
970
20
10
;

24
38
12,23
23

8/82
3/82

652
651

57
57

3/82
8/82

30
15,30
30
29

9/82
2/B3

930
930c
952
3

10
39
36
16

2/83
11/81
2/83
8/81

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
13,31

2/83
11/81
2/83
12/81
5/82




6/82
6/82

Japan-See International comparisons.

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

96
59
96
95
59"
95
96
59"
96
95
59*'
95
95
59
95
49
84,95
49,59
84,95
95
59*
95
94
58
94
58
94
58
58
94
58
94
58
94
14,20,58 63,94
94
58

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82

70
70
70
70
70
36
70

667
622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651

57
57
57
56
56
57
56
57
56
56
57
56
57
57

93
93
93
92
92
93
92
93
92
92
93
92
93
93

8/82
8/82
8/82
5/82
1/83
8/82
1/83
8/82
5/82
1/83
8/82
1/83
8/82
8/82

65
65
65
64
64
65
64
65
64
64
65
64
65
65

30
245
247
3!)
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78

26 .,42
42'
47
27
13,26
27
11
15,27
27
26
38
27

68,81
81
83
68
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
68

10/82
10/82
10/82
9/82
8/82
1/83
2/83
9/82
9/82
9/82
1/82
9/82

26

68

9/82

24
24
37
11
23

66
66
75
60
66

1/83
1/83
1/83

24

67

9/82

243
242

42
42

10/82
10/82

89
249
87
241
240

25
47
25
25
47
25
42
42

81
81
67
83
67
67
83
67
81
81

733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c

4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
5/82
5/82
4/82
4/82

68
68
68
68
69
69
69
69
68
68
59
59
68
68

1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
12/82
1/83

66
66
66
66
66
66
24
66

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Laboi cost per unit of output, private business sector.
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
;...
Loan<;-See Credit.

10/82

15

15
44
40

M
Man-hours-Sea Employment and unemployment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change
Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
;
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M1
;
Money supply M1, percent changes
Money supply M2
..'....'.......
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply M1
Ratio personal income to money supply M2 . . . .
Mortgage debt, net change
'.
Mortage yields secondary market
Municipal bond yields

60

913
78

26
12,21
20

2/83
9/82

68

9/82

28

8/82
12/82

26
25

917

n

2/83

104

73,31
31
31
13,31

5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82
8/82
8/82
3/82
2/82
2/82

m

85

106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31

31
32
34
34

40
40
40
40
40
40
40
42
46
46

N

07
11
965
914

23

66

23

66

2/83
3/82

9/82
10/82

9/82
9/82
10/82
9/82
10/82
10/82
8/82
8/82

National defense-See Oefense,
National Government-See Government.
National income-See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondetense, constant d o l . . .
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol, .
Oefense products
{Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars . . . .
Structure:;, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

Obligations incurred, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production...
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Gocds output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes.
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing

27
24
8
20
10
548
7
6

23
23
12,21
12,23
23
53
21
21

8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
8/82
12/82
8/82
8/82

26
26
26
32
32
26
26
26

964
971

8/82 , 26
48
1/82

248

9/82
9/82
9/82
10/82

5
1
5
1
5
1
5
1

517
721

7/82
1/83

56

8/82
2/83
12/82

25
39
61

49
62
358
370
370c
83
82
84
21

20
15,30
50
50
50
20
20
20
16

NOTE: CI S composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).

112

Series
Historical
tariptions
data
(issue date]
(*)

n/82
11/82

12/82
12/82
12/82
7/82

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Participation rates, civilian labor force
8oth sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of G N P . . .
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving . . :
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditues for, Dl
Contracts and orders for, constant dollars
Contracts and orders for, current dollars..;
Population, civilian employment as percent of
;;..
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
All items, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
Deflators, NI PA
;
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator, GNP, index . .
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Industrial materials
.'....
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices, change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent change . . . . *
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes.. *
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes . . . . . . . . . .
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
;
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
.....
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, DI
Retail trade, Dl . . ;
.:....;......
Wholesale trade, Dl . . .
Prime contracts, military
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers'durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI
Product ion-See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
:
Output per hour, private business sector
;,.;
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes. .
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, cur. dol. . . .
Corporate, with IVA and CCA . . ;
Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic
income
:
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. iric..

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
[issue date)
(*)

453
452
451

51
51
51

4/82
4/82
4/82

20
20
20

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

9/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82
10/82

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

292
293
614

46
46
56

11/82
11/82
1/83

58
58
64 ,

61
970
20
10
90

24
38
12,23
23
18

6/82
6/82
8/82
8/82
3/82

34
34
32
32
20

320
320c
322
322c

49
49,59
49
49

84,95
84,95
84
84

5/82
5/82
5/82
5/82

59
59
59
59

311
311c
310
310c
23

48
48
48
48
28

11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
1/82

58
59
49
49
36

867
26
92

37
29
13,28

84
84
84
84
69
79
75
70
69

1/82
10/82
3/82

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

7/82
2/82

48
48
48
48

85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
70

5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
10/82

59
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60

76
76
76
90
73

1/82
1/82
1/82
4/82
2/82

48
49

67

9/82

Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDt
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing,
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
lissuedate)
(*)

93
89
249

1/82
9/82
10/82

59
54

11/82
n/82

36
36

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
26

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

36"

976
978
977
525

358
370
370c
916

50
50

60"

64
46

50
11

12/82
11/82
11/82
2/83

61
61
61

18
16

28
28

9/82
9/82

37

80
79
286
287
972
960
15
916
22

28

37

11
29

9/82
9/82
10/82
10/82
1/82
12/82
6/82
2/83
9/82

29
45
47

9/82
10/82
10/82

37

8/81

18

81
282
283

Quit rate, manufacturing .

Rental income of persons, with CCA
Rental income of.persons, with CCA, percent of national
income

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

28
45
47
38
37
29

Salaries-See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, 01
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving fate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
:
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
•
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies an hand and on order .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
change
Surptus-See Government.

213

40

10/82

49

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14,22
22
38
27
22
22

9/82
n/82
11/82
1/82
1/83
11/82
11/82

28
28
28
48
28
31
31

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

11/82
11/82
11/82
n/82
n/82

37
58
58
58
58

13,28

3/82

60

13,28
37
27

7/82
2/82
9/82

36
36
28

26

9/82

28

2/82
2/82

46
46

3/82
3/82
2/82
1/82

20
19
18
18
18

114
115

Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields..

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio . . ,
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl ,
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
Full-time workers . .
. .
. . .
Males, 20 years and over
Total unemployed
. . . .
. .,
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
.
.
.
Insured, average weekly . . .
Total
. . .
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industlies . . .
Durable goods industries, change in
United Kingdom-See International comparisons

91
60
5
962
3

15,18
17
12,16
36
16

62
61
61
74
61

445
447
444
37
4

51
51
51
51
18,51
16

89
89
89
89
62,89
61

4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/82
8/81

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

3/82
3/82
3/82

20
18

96
25

21
21

64
64

11/82
9/82

26

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

8/82
8/82
2/82

40
40
28

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
92
1

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
13,28
12,16

5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
5/82
5/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
6/82
3/82
7/82

59

8/81

20
20
, 20

20
20
18

20

ze

15
37

Velocity of money
G NP to money supply M), ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance

37
37

37
48
38

15
37
56
56

284

10/82

57

285

10/82

57

W
Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive prices, change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl ,

7/82

59
60

60
60
60
60
60
'

60
60
60
15
15

NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.

Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source,)
(23,66)

33.

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).—Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)

34.

Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S, Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1

(29,70)

35.
12.

Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)

Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q),-Source

36.

Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1,2, and 3(13,26,68)

1

(29,70)

Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.

13.

Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)

37.

Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)

38.

Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).—Source 2
(26,68)

I-A. Composite Indexes

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

39.

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over <E0M). —American
Bankers
Association
(33,72)

40.

Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)

910.

Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111)
(M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

15.

Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

913.

Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series l t 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

914.

Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

915.

Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)

Composite index of profitability (Includes series 19, 26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)

Number of persons engaged in nonagricullural activities,
labor force survey (M).~Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)

43.

Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources ? and 3(18,62)

19.

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

44.

Unemployment rate, persons unemployed IS weeks and

20.

916.

42.

45.

Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor. Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—
The Conference Board
(17,61)

over (M).—Sources 2 and 3

(18,62)

917.

Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

Contracts and orders for plait arid equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)

920.

Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 4 1 , 47, 5 1 , 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)

46.

930.

Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

47.

Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this
series may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69.79)

48.

940.

Employee-hours
(M).-Source 3

49.

Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)

50.

Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source

1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average

workweek

manufacturing

23.

24.
of

production

(M).-Source 3

workers,

(12,16,61,77)

(16,61)

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3

unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(12,16,61)

1

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)

26.

Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)

53.

27.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)

54.

28.

New private housing units started, total (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

(16,61)

5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S.
Labor
Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis

industrial production, total

(M).—Source

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
in

nonagricultural

establishments
(17,39,61)

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)

25.

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3(16,61)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3

Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(23,66)

Index of
4

52.

Personal income,, total in 1972 dollars (M).-- Source

1

(19,63)

Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2

(22,65)

55.

Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).~
Source 1
(22,65)

6. Value of manufacturers' new oirders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)

29.

Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)

7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)

30.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26,42,68,81)

56.

Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).~Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)

8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources l t 2, and
3
(12,21,64)

57.

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)

Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).~
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)

58.

Index of consumer sentiment (QfM),—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)

59.

Sales of retail stores m 1972 dollars (M).- -Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by

114



32.

Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
4(i) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
( M ) . - S o u r c e s 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)

84.

Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).—Source
4
(20,64)

85.

Change in money supply M l (M).-Source 4

61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).—Source 1
(24,67)

86.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67)

62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)

87.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

88.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

63.

Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)

89.

64.

Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

90.

Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)

Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally
adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(35,73)

93.

Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)

94.

Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)

95.

119.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

60.

Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

(34,72)

1-C. Diffusion Indexes
(31,71)

67.

Etank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4
(35,73)

68.

labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1
(30,70)

69.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)

70.

Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).—Sources 1, 2t and 3

71.

72.

(27,68)

951.

Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

952.

Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)

960.

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)

961.

Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)

962.

Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).- Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)

963.

Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls—172-186 industries (M).—
Source 3
(36,74)

Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal in
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

964.

Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries— 34-35 industries (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)

96.

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)

965.

Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)

966.

Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)

102,

Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)

967.

104.

Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(31,71)

Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials 13 industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79)

968.
Money supply M l in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3,
and 4
(31,71)

Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
52-82 i n d u s t r i e s ( M ) . - S t a n d a r d & Poor's
Corporation
(37,75)

106.

Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars ( M ) , -Sources, 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)

970.

Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total— 22 industries (Q).—Source
1
(38,76)

107.

Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)

971.

108.

Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)

Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

972.

109.

Average prime rate charged by banks (M).=Source
4
(35,73)

110.

Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

973.

112.

Net change in bank loans to businesses(M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,72)

113.

Net change in consumer installment credit (M).-Source
4
(32,72)

Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and t r a d e about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q). -Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

974.

114.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)

115.

Yield on long-term Treasury
Department of the Treasury

Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)

116.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
( M ) . - C i t i b a n k and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)

975.

117.

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)

Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)

976.

118.

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)

Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(35,73)

73.

Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(20,63)

74.

Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4

75.

Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)

nondurable
(20,63)

76.

Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)

77.

Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)

78.

Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)

79.

Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)

80.

Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)

81.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(29,70)

82.

Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q),—Source
4
(20,64)

83.

Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)

105.

66.

950.

Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—
Source 1
(20,64)




bonds

(M).—U.S.
(34,73)

15
1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977.

978.

Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 400
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

292.

Personal saving (Q).--Source 1

293.

Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1
(46,83)

248.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)

295.

Business saving-—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source

249.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)

298.

Government
1

Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and prcduct accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)

Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

247.

250.

Il-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source

1

(26, 42, 68, 81)

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252.

253.

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200.

213.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(40,80)
Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars

(40,80)

256.

Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
National
1

income

Personal
1

income

(Q).-Source 1
217.

220.

223.

224.

in

in

current

current

227.

dollars

dollars

(Q).—Source
(45,82)
(M).—Source
(40,63)

Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)

310.

311.

(46,82)
surplus or deficit, total

Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(48,84)
Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product

(Q).-Source 1
320.

(Q).—Source
(46,83)

Index of consumer prices,
3

(48,84)
items (M).-Source
(49,59,84,95)

322.

Index of consumer prices, food (M). -Source 3(49,84)

330.

Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).—Source
3

(48,85)

331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).--Source 3
(48,85)

Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)

332.

257.

Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)

Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)

333.

Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)

260.

Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335.

Index of produce? prices, industrial commodities ( M ) . Source 3
(48,85)

340.

Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy-adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonally (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

341.

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).—Source
3
(49,87)

(40,80)

262.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q). Source 1
(40,80)

263.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

265.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

266.

State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

267.

State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

345.

Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)

268.

State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

346.

Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

280.

Compensation of employee!; (Q).-Source 1

348.

282.

Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes tQ)-—Source

349.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).~
Source 3
(50,88)

358.

Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

370.

Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2

(40,80)

230.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)

231.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

232.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

233.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

235.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

236.

Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)

1

Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) , Source 1

225.

255.

Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)

(46,82)

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

(45,82)

3

(50,88)

283.

Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as ;i percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

284.

Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

239.

Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

285.

240.

Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent mf national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

286.

241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(47,82)

287.

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

288.

Net interest (Q).-Source 1

289.

Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

442.

Total civilian employment, labor force survey ( M ) . ~
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

290.

Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)

444.

Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).'-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

237.

Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

238.

242.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, an
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

243.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

245.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(42,81)

116



(45,82)

Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1983 -180-993/111

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445.

Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

565.

National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

446.

Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

570.

447.

Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
iiurvey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)

577.

Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S, Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)

578.

Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)

580.

Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production, total
(M).-Source 4

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

3

(51,89)

452.

Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

453.

500.

Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)

723.

Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)

725.

West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
(58,94)

726.

France, index of industrial production (M),—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

735.

588.

Il-D. Government Activities

722.

733.

Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)

732.

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

721.

728.

Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and

United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)

727.

448.

320.

West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

736.

France, index of consumer prices (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

737.

Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Institute Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

738.

Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)

Il-E. U.S. International Transactions

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

602.

502.

Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

510.

State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

604. Exports of agricultural products (Wl).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
606.

Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

612.

General imports, total (M).-Source 2

511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512.

State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

517.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)

525.

543.

Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by 8ureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

(59,95)

616.

Imports of automobiles and parts (Wl).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

618.

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

620.

Merchandise imports,
(Q).-Source 1

622.

Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

651.

Income on U.S.
1
'

(Q).—Source
(57,93)

742.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices
Financial Times (London)

743.

Canada, index of stock prices (M),—Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)

745.

West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)

746.

France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

747.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Institute Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(59,96)

748.

Japan, index of
Exchange (Tokyo)

adjusted,

investments

excluding

abroad

military
(57,93)

652.

548.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)

Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

667.

Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(57,93)

557.

Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source

668.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

669.

Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)

4

(54,91)

5.'i9. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
5151. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




(59,96)

Il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

(M).-The
(59,96)

stock

prices

(M).—Tokyo

Stock
(59,96)

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